investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Election 2020: The Worst Case Scenario Is The Most Likely One

The most frequently asked question I get these days is what is going to happen in November , 2020 .
The election seems to be on the majority of people ’ s minds even more so that the coronavirus pandemic .
In the summer of 2016 I accurately predicted that Donald Trump would enter the White House and met endless opposition to the idea .
At the time , an overwhelming number of analysts in the liberty movement assumed Trump would lose , and that Clinton , by hook or by crook , would become president .
Obviously this was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call on a Trump presidency for a number of reasons .
Set aside the fact that the majority of major elections are rigged from within because the elites choose candidates on BOTH sides to run , and lets just look at the simple campaign dynamic at the time .
For one , Clinton was the worst possible candidate that could have been chosen to run against Trump if they had actually intended on “ winning ” .
The DNC had rigged the primary process against Bernie Sanders in order to push Clinton through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just by conservatives but also by moderate liberals .
Democrats tend to draw a larger voter base by running “ vibrant ” candidates that appeal to younger Americans , yet they ran one of the most twisted and decrepit creatures they had on their roster .
Though all the polling said Clinton would win in a landslide , the crowds at her campaign events were tiny and devoid of energy .
It was clear that she had zero momentum .
It was almost as if she was being set up to lose .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ was anti-globalist and his calls to “ drain the swamp ” were resonating with voters .
Would this not greatly damage or expose the establishment agenda ?
Here ’ s what people need to understand… Sometimes giving an enemy a false sense of security by allowing them a minor victory is the best strategy .
The globalists strategize for the long term ; not just for the next 4 years , but for the next 40 years .
As Richard N. Gardner , former deputy assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Trilateral Commission , wrote in the April , 1974 issue of the Council on Foreign Relation ’ s ( CFR ) journal Foreign Affairs ( pg .
558 ) in an article titled ‘ The Hard Road To World Order ’ : “ In short , the ‘ house of world order ’ will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down .
It will look like a great ‘ booming , buzzing confusion , ’ to use William James ’ famous description of reality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sovereignty , eroding it piece by piece , will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault.
” My prediction on Trump becoming president was not only based on Clinton ’ s inadequacy as a candidate , but also on Trump ’ s usefulness as a scapegoat for collapse .
Keep in mind that the US economy had been struggling to maintain support since the crash of 2008 .
With all major fundamentals either stagnant or in decline , and with corporate debt , consumer debt and national debt skyrocketing , an enormous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
This bubble was being inflated by the Federal Reserve through endless stimulus policies to the point that the economy had become addicted to easy money .
The system was dependent on it .
Eventually , this bubble was going to pop regardless of how much money was printed by the Fed .
The banking elites needed a cover event and a scapegoat for the inevitable collapse they had engineered .
With Clinton in office , the globalists would get the blame for the crash .
With Trump in office , conservatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get the blame for the crash .
Trump ’ s entry into the White House brought hope for many conservatives , but I never put much faith in the eventual outcome once I realized the same elites that had infested previous administrations were now packed into Trump ’ s cabinet .
The fact of the matter is , Trump is surrounded by them .
Dozens of members of the Council on Foreign Relations ( a globalist think tank ) reside in Trump ’ s cabinet , along with elites like Pompeo , Mnuchin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fauci , etc .
Mike Pompeo is a hardcore neo-con with longtime support for numerous unconstitutional policies including mass surveillance of Americans .
Steve Mnuchin is former Goldman Sachs .
Wilber Ross is an agent for the Rothschild banking syndicate .
Larry Kudlow is former New York Federal Reserve .
Robert Lighthizer is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations .
And , Fauci is the guy that gave MILLIONS of dollars to the Level 4 lab in Wuhan , China to research none other than coronavirus transmission from bats to other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably responsible for the initial pandemic outbreak .
One could debate whether or not Trump is aware that he is being swarmed by globalist parasites , but it is a FACT that these people still have considerable influence over White House policy either way .
This brings us to 2020 .
We are now in the middle of a viral pandemic ; government officials and establishment elites are calling for extensive economic lockdowns in order to “ flatten the curve ” and slow the infection rate .
These lockdowns are accelerating the decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ setting the country up for collapse in the near term .
Civil unrest is constantly on the verge of breaking out on both sides of the political divide .
The social justice cultists want chaos in the name of bringing down the system and replacing it with some kind of Marxist Utopia .
Conservatives are ready to protest and perhaps even go to war in order to stop the lockdowns and prevent medical tyranny ( and I agree with them ) .
This is the background for election 2020 , and it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past few month my suspicion is that there might not be an election at all .
But let ’ s look at the factors that are in place : 1 ) Joe Biden , the Dem candidate , appears to have stage four dementia .
Either that , or he is a very good actor .
This is another situation where I am questioning WHY ?
Why would the establishment run Biden ( like they ran Clinton ) , perhaps the worst possible choice if they hope to rally people against Trump and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay in office for another four years , because Biden appears to have no capacity to hold the attention of an audience ( again , unless his Alzheimer ’ s is an act ) .
That said , if the economic decline is severe enough into November , the election numbers could still be very close because of the backlash against Trump .
Close elections are the easiest for the establishment to manipulate one way or the other .
2 ) Leftists hate Trump so thoroughly that they would vote for anyone at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him ; but will this fervor be enough to sway moderate Dems to participate if Biden continues his displays of mental frailty ?
3 ) The pandemic lockdowns and viral spread are likely to hit hard by November .
Meaning , there is a chance that people will find it difficult to vote at all , unless the votes are handled by mail-in or by electronic means .
4 ) Electronic or mail-in voting will not be trusted by the public on either side .
Whoever wins will be accused of cheating .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost guaranteed in the lead up to the elections , which could frighten people away from voting booths if they are even in operation .
These factors and more lead me to predict that Election 2020 will be a contested election which ends with Trump staying in office but accused of usurping the democratic process .
This outcome is the worst possible outcome and also the most advantageous for the globalist establishment .
The elites are even hinting publicly that this is about to happen .
For those of you that have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the name “ Max Boot ” might sound familiar .
In my article ‘ How Globalists Will Attempt To Control Populations Post Collapse ’ , published in 2016 , I outlined writings by Council on Foreign Relations member Max Boot on the Malaysian Model , a method he describes as the perfect strategy for taking control of a population and destroying an insurgency .
The model calls for the institution of city-sized concentration camps which are used to isolate a rebellion away from the general population .
The population in these cities is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures , while the military is sent out to rural areas to eliminate potential insurgent threats .
Well , Boot is back again , this time writing about how he thinks Donald Trump will try to “ hijack ” the presidency in 2020 .
In an article for the Washington post titled ‘ What If Trump Loses But Insists He Won ’ , Boot outlines a scenario that was “ war gamed ” by a group called the Transition Integrity Project .
The group played out a scenario in which there is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ followed by actions by Trump to keep control of the presidency through lies and legal wrangling .
The group also predicted civil unrest leading to potential “ civil war ” as the fight over the White House expands .
This article is , I believe , an attempt at predictive programming by the establishment .
They are TELLING US exactly what is about to happen .
A contested election , civil war , martial law , economic collapse and the US will be destroyed from within .
If conservatives actively support unconstitutional levels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then the scenario becomes even worse .
By forsaking our foundational principles in order to “ defeat the left ” , we would be handing victory to the globalists .
We would be destroying our own movement ’ s reason for existing while the elites barely have to lift a finger .
The CFR and its long time goal of erasing US sovereignty would then be nearly complete .
All that would be left is to ensure they they are the people that get to rebuild America from the ashes of all out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be allowed to happen .
I continue to predict that the plan is to destroy the US as we know it and blame conservatives in the process .
With so many elites inhabiting Trump ’ s cabinet , this outcome would be easy for them to engineer .
That said , the end game is not in the hands of the elites .
It ’ s in the hands of conservatives .
The temptation for conservatives will be to fully embrace government power in order to stop the leftists , but if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , if we demand or assert alternative solutions ( such as community based security ) , if we stand by our principles of limited government and if we fight back against the globalists specifically instead of only focusing on the political left , then there is a chance we can stop them from taking control .
That said , if we bow to government power and hand over our freedom just to defeat the leftists , then we will lose the greater battle against globalism in the long run .

by Brandon Smith
The most frequently asked question I get these days is what is going to happen in November, 2020. The election seems to be on the majority of people’s minds even more so that the coronavirus pandemic. In the summer of 2016 I accurately predicted that Donald Trump would enter the White House and met endless opposition to the idea. At the time, an overwhelming number of analysts in the liberty movement assumed Trump would lose, and that Clinton, by hook or by crook, would become president. Obviously this was not the case.
I made the call on a Trump presidency for a number of reasons. Set aside the fact that the majority of major elections are rigged from within because the elites choose candidates on BOTH sides to run, and lets just look at the simple campaign dynamic at the time.
For one, Clinton was the worst possible candidate that could have been chosen to run against Trump if they had actually intended on “winning”. The DNC had rigged the primary process against Bernie Sanders in order to push Clinton through, yet she was universally hated not just by conservatives but also by moderate liberals. Democrats tend to draw a larger voter base by running “vibrant” candidates that appeal to younger Americans, yet they ran one of the most twisted and decrepit creatures they had on their roster. Though all the polling said Clinton would win in a landslide, the crowds at her campaign events were tiny and devoid of energy. It was clear that she had zero momentum.
It was almost as if she was being set up to lose. But why? Trump’s rhetoric was anti-globalist and his calls to “drain the swamp” were resonating with voters. Would this not greatly damage or expose the establishment agenda?
Here’s what people need to understand…
Sometimes giving an enemy a false sense of security by allowing them a minor victory is the best strategy. The globalists strategize for the long term; not just for the next 4 years, but for the next 40 years. As Richard N. Gardner, former deputy assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations under Kennedy and Johnson, and a member of the Trilateral Commission, wrote in the April, 1974 issue of the Council on Foreign Relation’s (CFR) journal Foreign Affairs (pg. 558) in an article titled ‘The Hard Road To World Order’:
“In short, the ‘house of world order’ will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. It will look like a great ‘booming, buzzing confusion,’ to use William James’ famous description of reality, but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault.”
My prediction on Trump becoming president was not only based on Clinton’s inadequacy as a candidate, but also on Trump’s usefulness as a scapegoat for collapse. Keep in mind that the US economy had been struggling to maintain support since the crash of 2008. With all major fundamentals either stagnant or in decline, and with corporate debt, consumer debt and national debt skyrocketing, an enormous bubble was being created in the US economy. This bubble was being inflated by the Federal Reserve through endless stimulus policies to the point that the economy had become addicted to easy money. The system was dependent on it.
Eventually, this bubble was going to pop regardless of how much money was printed by the Fed. The banking elites needed a cover event and a scapegoat for the inevitable collapse they had engineered. With Clinton in office, the globalists would get the blame for the crash. With Trump in office, conservatives and all of our ideals and principles get the blame for the crash.
Trump’s entry into the White House brought hope for many conservatives, but I never put much faith in the eventual outcome once I realized the same elites that had infested previous administrations were now packed into Trump’s cabinet. The fact of the matter is, Trump is surrounded by them.
Dozens of members of the Council on Foreign Relations (a globalist think tank) reside in Trump’s cabinet, along with elites like Pompeo, Mnuchin, Ross, Kudlow, Lighthizer, Fauci, etc. Mike Pompeo is a hardcore neo-con with longtime support for numerous unconstitutional policies including mass surveillance of Americans. Steve Mnuchin is former Goldman Sachs. Wilber Ross is an agent for the Rothschild banking syndicate. Larry Kudlow is former New York Federal Reserve. Robert Lighthizer is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. And, Fauci is the guy that gave MILLIONS of dollars to the Level 4 lab in Wuhan, China to research none other than coronavirus transmission from bats to other mammals; the same lab that is probably responsible for the initial pandemic outbreak.
One could debate whether or not Trump is aware that he is being swarmed by globalist parasites, but it is a FACT that these people still have considerable influence over White House policy either way.
This brings us to 2020. We are now in the middle of a viral pandemic; government officials and establishment elites are calling for extensive economic lockdowns in order to “flatten the curve” and slow the infection rate. These lockdowns are accelerating the decline of the already weakened US economy and setting the country up for collapse in the near term. Civil unrest is constantly on the verge of breaking out on both sides of the political divide.
The social justice cultists want chaos in the name of bringing down the system and replacing it with some kind of Marxist Utopia. Conservatives are ready to protest and perhaps even go to war in order to stop the lockdowns and prevent medical tyranny (and I agree with them). This is the background for election 2020, and it’s an epic mess.
For the past few month my suspicion is that there might not be an election at all. But let’s look at the factors that are in place:
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1) Joe Biden, the Dem candidate, appears to have stage four dementia. Either that, or he is a very good actor. This is another situation where I am questioning WHY? Why would the establishment run Biden (like they ran Clinton), perhaps the worst possible choice if they hope to rally people against Trump and conservatives?
Maybe Trump is meant to stay in office for another four years, because Biden appears to have no capacity to hold the attention of an audience (again, unless his Alzheimer’s is an act). That said, if the economic decline is severe enough into November, the election numbers could still be very close because of the backlash against Trump. Close elections are the easiest for the establishment to manipulate one way or the other.
2) Leftists hate Trump so thoroughly that they would vote for anyone at this point just to get rid of him; but will this fervor be enough to sway moderate Dems to participate if Biden continues his displays of mental frailty?
3) The pandemic lockdowns and viral spread are likely to hit hard by November. Meaning, there is a chance that people will find it difficult to vote at all, unless the votes are handled by mail-in or by electronic means.
4) Electronic or mail-in voting will not be trusted by the public on either side. Whoever wins will be accused of cheating.
5) Civil unrest and violence is almost guaranteed in the lead up to the elections, which could frighten people away from voting booths if they are even in operation.
These factors and more lead me to predict that Election 2020 will be a contested election which ends with Trump staying in office but accused of usurping the democratic process. This outcome is the worst possible outcome and also the most advantageous for the globalist establishment.
The elites are even hinting publicly that this is about to happen. For those of you that have been reading my work for many years, the name “Max Boot” might sound familiar. In my article ‘How Globalists Will Attempt To Control Populations Post Collapse’, published in 2016, I outlined writings by Council on Foreign Relations member Max Boot on the Malaysian Model, a method he describes as the perfect strategy for taking control of a population and destroying an insurgency.
The model calls for the institution of city-sized concentration camps which are used to isolate a rebellion away from the general population. The population in these cities is then subjected to extreme tracking and control measures, while the military is sent out to rural areas to eliminate potential insurgent threats.
Well, Boot is back again, this time writing about how he thinks Donald Trump will try to “hijack” the presidency in 2020.
In an article for the Washington post titled ‘What If Trump Loses But Insists He Won’, Boot outlines a scenario that was “war gamed” by a group called the Transition Integrity Project. The group played out a scenario in which there is a razor thin victory for Joe Biden, followed by actions by Trump to keep control of the presidency through lies and legal wrangling. The group also predicted civil unrest leading to potential “civil war” as the fight over the White House expands.
This article is, I believe, an attempt at predictive programming by the establishment. They are TELLING US exactly what is about to happen. A contested election, civil war, martial law, economic collapse and the US will be destroyed from within. If conservatives actively support unconstitutional levels of federal power or martial law, then the scenario becomes even worse. By forsaking our foundational principles in order to “defeat the left”, we would be handing victory to the globalists. We would be destroying our own movement’s reason for existing while the elites barely have to lift a finger.
The CFR and its long time goal of erasing US sovereignty would then be nearly complete. All that would be left is to ensure they they are the people that get to rebuild America from the ashes of all out domestic conflict and collapse. This cannot be allowed to happen.
I continue to predict that the plan is to destroy the US as we know it and blame conservatives in the process. With so many elites inhabiting Trump’s cabinet, this outcome would be easy for them to engineer. That said, the end game is not in the hands of the elites. It’s in the hands of conservatives.
The temptation for conservatives will be to fully embrace government power in order to stop the leftists, but if we refuse to support martial law measures, if we demand or assert alternative solutions (such as community based security), if we stand by our principles of limited government and if we fight back against the globalists specifically instead of only focusing on the political left, then there is a chance we can stop them from taking control. That said, if we bow to government power and hand over our freedom just to defeat the leftists, then we will lose the greater battle against globalism in the long run.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--What’s It Like To Have Covid-19? An Infected Doctor Speaks

What ’ s it like to actually have covid-19 ?
On today ’ s video , Chris interviews Dr. Glenn @ @ @ @ @ from the virus .
While his case didn ’ t require hospitalization , Dr. DeSandre @ @ @ @ @ you do not want to get .
It ’ s not like the flu or @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s something much worse .
What makes this interview particularly interesting is Chris @ @ @ @ @ into the medical aspects with Dr. DeSandre , who is able to describe his experience @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus sufferer :

What’s it like to actually have covid-19?
On today’s video, Chris interviews Dr. Glenn DeSandre who is still recovering from the virus.
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While his case didn’t require hospitalization, Dr. DeSandre emphasizes it’s something you do not want to get. It’s not like the flu or a particularly bad cold — it’s something much worse.
What makes this interview particularly interesting is Chris’ ability to really dive into the medical aspects with Dr. DeSandre, who is able to describe his experience more clinically than the average coronavirus sufferer:


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--A Major Fed Policy Shift

A Major Fed Policy Shift

It may or may not happen at next week ’ s FOMC , but that hardly matters .
What ’ s important is that a policy shift is coming and the impact upon the precious metals will be significant .
Many times already in 2020 , we ’ ve utilized this space to explain why negative real interest rates are the most extraordinarily important and fundamental rationale for owning physical gold and silver .
Most recently , this article from two weeks ago : As we head toward another Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week , attention will turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will soon implement a policy of “ Yield Curve Control ” .
In the days leading up to last month ’ s FOMC meeting , this notion was all the rage , but while Yield Curve Control was discussed at the meeting , no formal announcement was made .
Which is interesting , as it appears that some measure of “ de facto ” yield curve control has already been put into place , beginning around April 1 of this year and with an easily-identifiable range between 60 and 75 basis points .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ being covertly applied hardly matters .
Instead , it ’ s clear that The Fed is headed in this direction and the impact across all markets will be significant .
Late last week , a trial balloon was floated by Bloomberg .
You may have missed it , but if you ’ re a gold and silver investor , it ’ s extremely important that you take time to consider it today .
Here ’ s the link : What is this “ major policy change ” that Bloomberg reports The Fed is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from their oft-stated “ dual mandate ” , The Fed is preparing to change their policy to allow for an overshoot of inflation , above and beyond the current goal of 2 % per year .
Will this policy change be announced next week ?
Maybe .
Will it be announced in September ?
More likely .
Will it be announced before year end ?
Almost definitely .
And with this policy shift will come the necessity of Yield Curve Control .
Why would YCC become indispensable ?
Because without it , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher…and The Fed is on record stating that they plan to hold yields near zero through 2022 .
The article from Bloomberg concludes as much , as you can see from the closing paragraph : Articles such as this don ’ t appear at Bloomberg by magic .
Instead , these trial balloons are designed to measure market response in advance .
So understand that higher inflation targets AND yield curve control are very likely coming before the end of the year…and perhaps as soon as September or even next week .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ silver investors ?
It ’ s an institutionalization of sharply negative real interest rates .
If The Fed holds the yield on the 10-year note below 1 % while inflation moves toward 3 % or 4 % , then negative inflation-adjusted returns for this bedrock institutional holding will drive demand for gold as an alternative Tier One asset .
Already , traditional mainstream analysis is beginning to understand the ultimate impact on gold prices .
See this from Barron ’ s : In conclusion you , too , must also recognize the hugely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shift ” will have on the precious metals .
The year 2020 has already seen some tremendous gains for gold and silver .
However , when The Fed announces the policy changes of higher inflation and yield curve control , the current price rally is likely to accelerate to the upside .

by Craig Hemke via Sprott Money News
July 21, 2020
It may or may not happen at next week’s FOMC, but that hardly matters. What’s important is that a policy shift is coming and the impact upon the precious metals will be significant.
Many times already in 2020, we’ve utilized this space to explain why negative real interest rates are the most extraordinarily important and fundamental rationale for owning physical gold and silver. Most recently, this article from two weeks ago:
• www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/real-rates-drive-…
As we head toward another Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, attention will turn again to whether or not the FOMC will soon implement a policy of “Yield Curve Control”. In the days leading up to last month’s FOMC meeting, this notion was all the rage, but while Yield Curve Control was discussed at the meeting, no formal announcement was made.
• www.bondbuyer.com/news/how-yield-curve-con…
Which is interesting, as it appears that some measure of “de facto” yield curve control has already been put into place, beginning around April 1 of this year and with an easily-identifiable range between 60 and 75 basis points.
Whether or not this policy is already being covertly applied hardly matters. Instead, it’s clear that The Fed is headed in this direction and the impact across all markets will be significant.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Late last week, a trial balloon was floated by Bloomberg. You may have missed it, but if you’re a gold and silver investor, it’s extremely important that you take time to consider it today. Here’s the link:
• www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07…
What is this “major policy change” that Bloomberg reports The Fed is actively considering? In a move away from their oft-stated “dual mandate”, The Fed is preparing to change their policy to allow for an overshoot of inflation, above and beyond the current goal of 2% per year. Will this policy change be announced next week? Maybe. Will it be announced in September? More likely. Will it be announced before year end? Almost definitely.
And with this policy shift will come the necessity of Yield Curve Control. Why would YCC become indispensable? Because without it, a rising inflation rate would force interest rates higher…and The Fed is on record stating that they plan to hold yields near zero through 2022. The article from Bloomberg concludes as much, as you can see from the closing paragraph:
Articles such as this don’t appear at Bloomberg by magic. Instead, these trial balloons are designed to measure market response in advance. So understand that higher inflation targets AND yield curve control are very likely coming before the end of the year…and perhaps as soon as September or even next week.
And what does this mean for gold and silver investors? It’s an institutionalization of sharply negative real interest rates. If The Fed holds the yield on the 10-year note below 1% while inflation moves toward 3% or 4%, then negative inflation-adjusted returns for this bedrock institutional holding will drive demand for gold as an alternative Tier One asset. Already, traditional mainstream analysis is beginning to understand the ultimate impact on gold prices. See this from Barron’s:
• www.barrons.com/articles/gold-could-overta…
In conclusion you, too, must also recognize the hugely significant implications that this impending “policy shift” will have on the precious metals. The year 2020 has already seen some tremendous gains for gold and silver. However, when The Fed announces the policy changes of higher inflation and yield curve control, the current price rally is likely to accelerate to the upside.
Find more precious metals news from Sprott Money Ltd


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--If That Was A Bubble, What’s This?

If That Was A Bubble, What’s This?

The following is an excerpt of a Chart Book featured on The Felder Report PRO : Just three stocks , @ @ @ @ @ , make up more than 16 % of the S & P 500 Index and @ @ @ @ @ Nasdaq 100 Index .
Together they are now valued at nearly $ 5 trillion .
@ @ @ @ @ the entire economy of Germany and roughly the size of the Japanese economy .
What @ @ @ @ @ though , is the aggregate valuation of these three behemoths relative to their free cash @ @ @ @ @ peak of the Dotcom Mania have we see anything like it – which begs the @ @ @ @ @ was a bubble , what ’ s this ?
’

by jessefelder
The following is an excerpt of a Chart Book featured on The Felder Report PRO:
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Just three stocks, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft, make up more than 16% of the S&P 500 Index and over a third of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Together they are now valued at nearly $5 trillion. That’s larger than the entire economy of Germany and roughly the size of the Japanese economy. What is really most astounding, though, is the aggregate valuation of these three behemoths relative to their free cash flow. Only at the peak of the Dotcom Mania have we see anything like it – which begs the question: ‘If that was a bubble, what’s this?’


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Microsoft earnings are out – here are the numbers

Earnings : $ 1.46 per share , adjusted , vs. $ 1.34 per share as expected by analysts , according @ @ @ @ @ $ 38.03 billion , vs. $ 36.50 billion as expected by analysts , according to @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Azure cloud slowed to 47 % from 59 % in the previous quarter @

by coolcomfort123
www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/microsoft-msft-earnings-q4-2020.html
Earnings: $1.46 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.34 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
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Revenue: $38.03 billion, vs. $36.50 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Growth of Microsoft’s Azure cloud slowed to 47% from 59% in the previous quarter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--How Much Do Countries Spend on Healthcare Compared to the Military?

Keeping citizens both healthy and secure are key priorities for many national governments around the world—but ultimately , decisions must be made on how tax dollars are spent to accomplish these objectives , and funding must fall into one bucket or another .
This infographic from PixlParade examines how much 46 different countries put towards healthcare and military spending in 2018 , per capita .
Data for government and compulsory healthcare spending comes from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ) .
Note that these figures do not include spending through private insurance or out-of-pocket expenses .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ( SIPRI ) .
Note : There are minor discrepancies in comparing table data to original sources due to recent estimate updates .
Figures for Brazil , South Africa , China , Indonesia , and India come from the World Bank ( 2017 ) .
The U.S. leads the world in government healthcare spending at $ 9,008 per capita – over 1.5 times that of Norway , the next-highest country examined .
While per-capita government spending on healthcare in the U.S. is the highest in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought about better outcomes ( such as longer life expectancy ) compared to other developed nations .
It ’ s also worth mentioning that the above figures do not cover all healthcare costs incurred by citizens , as they do not account for private insurance spending or out-of-pocket expenses .
According to OECD data , these additional costs tend to be the highest in places like Switzerland and the United States .
Israel has the highest rate of military spending per capita , and has the distinction of being the only country on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than in healthcare .
Although the United States comes in second place here as well , in absolute terms , the U.S. puts more money into military expenditures than many other countries combined , at almost $ 700 billion per year .

by visualcapitalist
Healthcare vs. Military Spending, by Country
Keeping citizens both healthy and secure are key priorities for many national governments around the world—but ultimately, decisions must be made on how tax dollars are spent to accomplish these objectives, and funding must fall into one bucket or another.
This infographic from PixlParade examines how much 46 different countries put towards healthcare and military spending in 2018, per capita.
Head to Head: Healthcare versus Military
Data for government and compulsory healthcare spending comes from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Note that these figures do not include spending through private insurance or out-of-pocket expenses.
Meanwhile, the data for military spending comes from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Country Health spending (Per capita, 2018 US$) Military spending (Per capita, 2018 US$) U.S. $9,008.77 $2,086.50 Norway $5,361.00 $1,323.90 Germany $5,262.83 $559.50 Switzerland $4,687.26 $546.00 Sweden $4,623.68 $574.90 Netherlands $4,461.30 $651.50 Denmark $4,441.07 $792.50 Luxembourg $4,385.66 $650.80 France $4,310.55 $791.00 Austria $4,137.25 $381.00 Source: OECD Source: SIPRI Previous Next
Note: There are minor discrepancies in comparing table data to original sources due to recent estimate updates. Figures for Brazil, South Africa, China, Indonesia, and India come from the World Bank (2017).
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The Top 10 Healthcare Spenders
The U.S. leads the world in government healthcare spending at $9,008 per capita – over 1.5 times that of Norway, the next-highest country examined.
Country Per capita health spending % of GDP % of health spending U.S. $9,008.77 14.3% 84.7% Norway $5,361.00 8.6% 85.3% Germany $5,262.83 9.7% 84.6% Switzerland $4,687.26 7.6% 64.4% Sweden $4,623.68 9.3% 85.1% Netherlands $4,461.30 8.2% 82.1% Denmark $4,441.07 8.5% 83.9% Luxembourg $4,385.66 4.4% 84.1% France $4,310.55 9.4% 83.6% Austria $4,137.25 7.7% 74.7%
While per-capita government spending on healthcare in the U.S. is the highest in the world, this has not necessarily brought about better outcomes (such as longer life expectancy) compared to other developed nations.
It’s also worth mentioning that the above figures do not cover all healthcare costs incurred by citizens, as they do not account for private insurance spending or out-of-pocket expenses. According to OECD data, these additional costs tend to be the highest in places like Switzerland and the United States.
The Top 10 Military Spenders
Israel has the highest rate of military spending per capita, and has the distinction of being the only country on this list to invest more in defense than in healthcare.
Country Per capita military spending % of GDP Total expenditure, US$M Israel $2,357.50 5.3% $19,759M U.S. $2,086.50 3.3% $682,491M Norway $1,323.90 1.6% $7,067M Australia $1,078.00 1.9% $26,840M South Korea $841.70 2.5% $43,070M Denmark $792.50 1.3% $4,559M France $791.00 1.3% $51,410M UK $743.10 1.8% $49,892M Finland $680.30 1.4% $3,757M Netherlands $651.50 1.2% $11,115M
Although the United States comes in second place here as well, in absolute terms, the U.S. puts more money into military expenditures than many other countries combined, at almost $700 billion per year.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--How Companies are Planning for Post-COVID Realities

Sometimes big changes occur slowly , over many years and decades .
Other times , though , historical events drastically alter society in a way so as to affect changes in every aspect of life almost immediately .
It ’ s reasonable to assume that the COVID-19 pandemic is going to be a catalyst for massive shifts in both the public and private sector .
Indeed , one needs only to review the current state of the US economy to realize that modern companies are struggling to adapt to this “ new normal.
” Still , some forward-thinking organizations are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post-coronavirus world .
Here are some of the ways that businesses are preparing for 2021 and beyond : Online retail was already a massive industry before the onset of the coronavirus .
However , it ’ s set up for incredible growth over the next few months and , as many experts believe , years into the future .
Indeed , the US may need another 1 billion square feet of warehouse space simply to accommodate the recent ecommerce boom .
Expect to see more businesses expand their ecommerce operations , and for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just as businesses are moving many of their products and services to a digital platform , so too are many transitioning from a traditional workspace to a primarily remote work environment .
What ’ s more , while these changes may have been inspired by lockdown restrictions , it ’ s possible that many businesses will adopt a more permanent work-from-home policy .
Remote employment saves businesses money , increases their potential talent pool , and reduces key overhead costs .
Most , if not all , modern businesses were caught somewhat off-guard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As such , it ’ s no surprise to see many business leaders taking action to ensure their organization is never in such a tenuous position again .
Preventative measures like key person insurance , succession planning , and crisis-management strategies have become increasingly popular over the past few months .
Company culture is vital to the long-term success of an organization .
Since the workplace and the nature of work is currently undergoing rapid transformation , it makes sense that many business leaders will use this time to reform and improve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely that many businesses will begin to introduce virtual resources for their employees , such as ethics training and soft-skills development courses .
What ’ s more , many businesses may find new niches and seek out new ways to connect with their most important customers .
As we ’ ve established above , no business that survives this difficult time will ever want to be caught short-handed ever again .
So expect business leaders to push and innovate in the immediate future .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the @ @ @ @

Sometimes big changes occur slowly, over many years and decades. Other times, though, historical events drastically alter society in a way so as to affect changes in every aspect of life almost immediately. It’s reasonable to assume that the COVID-19 pandemic is going to be a catalyst for massive shifts in both the public and private sector. Indeed, one needs only to review the current state of the US economy to realize that modern companies are struggling to adapt to this “new normal.” Still, some forward-thinking organizations are already planning for the realities of a post-coronavirus world. Here are some of the ways that businesses are preparing for 2021 and beyond:
Added Emphasis on Ecommerce
Online retail was already a massive industry before the onset of the coronavirus. However, it’s set up for incredible growth over the next few months and, as many experts believe, years into the future. Indeed, the US may need another 1 billion square feet of warehouse space simply to accommodate the recent ecommerce boom. Expect to see more businesses expand their ecommerce operations, and for new businesses to introduce ecommerce capabilities.
Remote Workforces
Just as businesses are moving many of their products and services to a digital platform, so too are many transitioning from a traditional workspace to a primarily remote work environment. What’s more, while these changes may have been inspired by lockdown restrictions, it’s possible that many businesses will adopt a more permanent work-from-home policy. Remote employment saves businesses money, increases their potential talent pool, and reduces key overhead costs.
Additional Safeguards
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Most, if not all, modern businesses were caught somewhat off-guard by the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, it’s no surprise to see many business leaders taking action to ensure their organization is never in such a tenuous position again. Preventative measures like key person insurance, succession planning, and crisis-management strategies have become increasingly popular over the past few months.
New Cultures, New Priorities
Company culture is vital to the long-term success of an organization. Since the workplace and the nature of work is currently undergoing rapid transformation, it makes sense that many business leaders will use this time to reform and improve their corporate culture. It’s likely that many businesses will begin to introduce virtual resources for their employees, such as ethics training and soft-skills development courses.
What’s more, many businesses may find new niches and seek out new ways to connect with their most important customers. As we’ve established above, no business that survives this difficult time will ever want to be caught short-handed ever again. So expect business leaders to push and innovate in the immediate future.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--4 Problems Any New Financial Plan Must Address

If you ’ re like millions of Americans , then you may be finding it difficult to build out a long-term financial plan with any efficacy right now .
Indeed , considering the volatility of Wall Street , the job market , and the uncertainty over future stimulus packages , the “ average ” U.S. citizen is likely having a very difficult time figuring out how to manage their money .
With that in mind , today we ’ ll attempt to clear up at least some of this confusion and highlight four issues that any new financial plan must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the beginnings of a successful budget regardless of your personal situation : Sounds obvious , right ?
Of course , all good budgets need to allow individuals to pay for things like groceries , rent , and utilities .
However it ’ s worth remembering that programs like rent forgiveness –– as well as federally extended unemployment benefits –– are set to end for many people in the coming days/weeks .
As such , if your current income doesn ’ t adequately cover these costs without such assistance , then you need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) increase your income capabilities .
( Or , ideally , do both at the same time . )
Odd though this might seem , it ’ s become easy to overlook common medical issues in 2020 .
With so much focus on COVID-19 , individuals may be putting off dealing with medical issues that , in reality , they need to address .
Whether you need to see a doctor about a worrying rash or to have a painful bunion removed , your financial plan should account for such potential expenses .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ bunion removal , check out these before and after bunion surgery pictures here . )
Across the board , many people have benefited from freezes on bills for debts like student-loan payments .
Unfortunately , those freezes will not last forever , and you may be forced to start paying off debt again sooner than you initially planned .
So adjust your financial strategy accordingly .
Some economists have predicted a “ v-shaped ” recovery to take place on the stock market .
Others have displayed cautious optimism and predicted slower , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have discussed the possibility of a backslide amid worsening economic conditions .
Yet , there ’ s no guarantee that the stock market will continue to recover after it fell massively at the outset of the pandemic .
Restrictions may cause certain businesses to shut down again , and if people lose access to financial support from certain federal programs , the economy as a whole could suffer .
Don ’ t count on exponential growth even if things look better today .
Instead , prepare for a potential backslide and protect your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

If you’re like millions of Americans, then you may be finding it difficult to build out a long-term financial plan with any efficacy right now. Indeed, considering the volatility of Wall Street, the job market, and the uncertainty over future stimulus packages, the “average” U.S. citizen is likely having a very difficult time figuring out how to manage their money. With that in mind, today we’ll attempt to clear up at least some of this confusion and highlight four issues that any new financial plan must address. This should help you form the beginnings of a successful budget regardless of your personal situation:
Essential Goods & Services
Sounds obvious, right? Of course, all good budgets need to allow individuals to pay for things like groceries, rent, and utilities. However it’s worth remembering that programs like rent forgiveness –– as well as federally extended unemployment benefits –– are set to end for many people in the coming days/weeks. As such, if your current income doesn’t adequately cover these costs without such assistance, then you need to either 1) reallocate funds or 2) increase your income capabilities. (Or, ideally, do both at the same time.)
Medical Complications
Odd though this might seem, it’s become easy to overlook common medical issues in 2020. With so much focus on COVID-19, individuals may be putting off dealing with medical issues that, in reality, they need to address. Whether you need to see a doctor about a worrying rash or to have a painful bunion removed, your financial plan should account for such potential expenses. (Note, for more information about bunion removal, check out these before and after bunion surgery pictures here.)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bills & Debt
Across the board, many people have benefited from freezes on bills for debts like student-loan payments. Unfortunately, those freezes will not last forever, and you may be forced to start paying off debt again sooner than you initially planned. So adjust your financial strategy accordingly.
Backslides
Some economists have predicted a “v-shaped” recovery to take place on the stock market. Others have displayed cautious optimism and predicted slower, more measured gains. Few, though, have discussed the possibility of a backslide amid worsening economic conditions. Yet, there’s no guarantee that the stock market will continue to recover after it fell massively at the outset of the pandemic. Restrictions may cause certain businesses to shut down again, and if people lose access to financial support from certain federal programs, the economy as a whole could suffer. Don’t count on exponential growth even if things look better today. Instead, prepare for a potential backslide and protect your financial well-being.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--4 Positive Ways to Spend Money Today

4 Positive Ways to Spend Money Today

2020 has been a year fraught with negative developments .
Virtually every aspect of life has been affected by the coronavirus , and , understandably , many people are likely to feel upset and frustrated as a result .
Indeed , it can sometimes feel as if there ’ s nothing that the average person can do to have a positive impact on the situation .
The good news is that isn ’ t exactly the case .
To that end , today we ’ ll share four ways that individuals can use some extra capital to make a difference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and their communities .
Check them out here : If you have the necessary income , then one of the best things you can do with your money is to donate it to a worthy cause .
And , on that front , there are hundreds –– if not thousands –– of organizations worldwide that could use your support .
What ’ s more , savvy financial players may consider giving a stock donation instead of cash .
This could prove massively beneficial for the organization and help you save on taxes at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no secret that small companies have been hit hardest by the impact of the coronavirus .
As such , anything you can do to support small businesses in your town could go a long way toward helping them get through this difficult time .
Remember , this could include something as simple as patronizing a restaurant by placing a carryout order .
You don ’ t have to be a millionaire to lend a helping hand to your neighbors !
Look After Yourself !
It ’ s difficult to overstate just how meaningful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the same time , you should never overlook your own health and well-being .
Therefore , don ’ t hesitate to spend money to bolster your wellness .
Whether you need a COVID-19 test or straightforward heel spur treatment , contact a medical professional whenever you need assistance .
Waiting to address a problem can lead to further complications down the line !
Understandably , many investors have been wary of putting significant capital back into the stock market after the last few months of volatility .
However , the truth is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to increase your investments and to explore new investment opportunities .
Not only do fledgling companies need investors like you to jump on board , but doing so now could help set you up for financial security for years to come .
So by extension , you ’ ll end up having more available capital to help yourself and others in the future .
At the end of the day , you shouldn ’ t be afraid to spend money despite these difficult times .
Doing so could really help out others –– @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

2020 has been a year fraught with negative developments. Virtually every aspect of life has been affected by the coronavirus, and, understandably, many people are likely to feel upset and frustrated as a result. Indeed, it can sometimes feel as if there’s nothing that the average person can do to have a positive impact on the situation. The good news is that isn’t exactly the case. To that end, today we’ll share four ways that individuals can use some extra capital to make a difference for themselves, their loved ones, and their communities. Check them out here:
Charitable Donations
If you have the necessary income, then one of the best things you can do with your money is to donate it to a worthy cause. And, on that front, there are hundreds –– if not thousands –– of organizations worldwide that could use your support. What’s more, savvy financial players may consider giving a stock donation instead of cash. This could prove massively beneficial for the organization and help you save on taxes at the same time.
Supporting Local Businesses
It’s no secret that small companies have been hit hardest by the impact of the coronavirus. As such, anything you can do to support small businesses in your town could go a long way toward helping them get through this difficult time. Remember, this could include something as simple as patronizing a restaurant by placing a carryout order. You don’t have to be a millionaire to lend a helping hand to your neighbors!
Look After Yourself!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It’s difficult to overstate just how meaningful helping others can be. Yet, at the same time, you should never overlook your own health and well-being. Therefore, don’t hesitate to spend money to bolster your wellness. Whether you need a COVID-19 test or straightforward heel spur treatment, contact a medical professional whenever you need assistance. Waiting to address a problem can lead to further complications down the line!
Invest
Understandably, many investors have been wary of putting significant capital back into the stock market after the last few months of volatility. However, the truth is that now is a potentially excellent time to increase your investments and to explore new investment opportunities. Not only do fledgling companies need investors like you to jump on board, but doing so now could help set you up for financial security for years to come. So by extension, you’ll end up having more available capital to help yourself and others in the future.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, you shouldn’t be afraid to spend money despite these difficult times. Doing so could really help out others –– as well as yourself!
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Is Your State Getting Its Fair Share of Coronavirus Stimulus?

Congress is now negotiating another round of economic stimulus to counter the coronavirus , and it still remains to be seen exactly what will be in it .
The Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) was one of the biggest planks of the previous stimulus effort , offering small businesses forgivable loans in exchange for keeping workers on their payrolls .
Our two latest maps reveal how this money was distributed across the country .
• The states with the most people received the most money overall from the Paycheck Protection Program , including California ( $ 68.23B ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York ( $ 38.35 ) .
• The most populated states likewise received the most loans , led by California ( 581K ) , Florida ( 393K ) and Texas ( 389K ) .
• Rural and less populated states are getting much less money overall , including Wyoming , which has only received about 13,000 loans valued at $ 1.04B in total .
• When measured on a per capita basis , Washington , DC is receiving the highest share of money in the country at $ 3,029 per person .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , American territories far away from the capitol are receiving much less per capita , including American Samoa ( $ 213 ) , Puerto Rico ( $ 564 ) and the Northern Mariana Islands ( $ 765 ) .
• There ’ s a group of states across the South receiving relatively less per capita than other states , stretching from Arizona ( $ 1,185 ) to North Carolina ( $ 1,183 ) .
These are the same places now seeing the worst case numbers for the coronavirus .
First , we illustrated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US Small Business Administration with a color-coded map , overlaid with a yellow circle for the overall number of loans .
This gives you a sense for which states are getting the most money in general .
Second , we wanted to dive deeper into the numbers and make adjustments for population levels .
So we created another map highlighting loan payments on a per capita basis , according to US Census figures for 2019 , highlighting the places disproportionately benefiting from the program .
Top 10 State With the Highest Overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Highest PPP Funding Per Capita The combination of both of our maps paints a complete picture of the Paycheck Protection Program .
It ’ s no surprise to learn that the states with the highest population are taking in the most money overall .
In fact , 9 out of the top 10 states receiving the most dollars are among the 10 most populated .
California ( $ 68.23B ) , Texas ( $ 41.05B ) , New York ( $ 38.35B ) and Florida ( $ 32.05 ) are the only four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30B .
That represents 34.45 % of the total distribution , and those states account for 33.34 % of the country ’ s population .
At first glance , this suggests the Paycheck Protection Program was reasonably distributed across the country .
A closer look at the per capita disbursement of funds suggests a more complicated story .
In fact , people living in some places took home significantly more money than other people .
The clear stand out is Washington , DC where the per capita disbursement astonishingly came out to $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ located in the capitol get more money on a per capita basis than everyone else ?
It is worth pointing out who is at the opposite end of the spectrum , with the least PPP dollars per capita .
That would be American Samoa ( $ 213 ) , Puerto Rico ( $ 564 ) and the Northern Mariana Islands ( $ 765 ) .
We didn ’ t map these locations because they aren ’ t official states , but it ’ s interesting to note the Americans receiving the least PPP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capitol .
There are two other insights worth calling out about the per capita map of PPP dollars .
North Dakota and South Dakota are two of the 6 least populated states in the country , and yet they land in the top 10 .
And there is an obvious collection of lightly shaded states across the South , stretching from Arizona ( $ 1,185 ) to North Carolina ( $ 1,183 ) .
West Virginia received the least money when adjusted for population among any US state ( $ 1,005 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ places undergoing the brunt of the latest surge in cases .
The pandemic and economic crisis are therefore colliding with particular force across the South and Sun Belt .
Do you think there will be another round of economic stimulus in light of the resurgent coronavirus ?
What do you think will be in the package ?
Let us know in the comments .

by howmuch
Congress is now negotiating another round of economic stimulus to counter the coronavirus, and it still remains to be seen exactly what will be in it. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was one of the biggest planks of the previous stimulus effort, offering small businesses forgivable loans in exchange for keeping workers on their payrolls. Our two latest maps reveal how this money was distributed across the country.
Buy this visualization
The states with the most people received the most money overall from the Paycheck Protection Program, including California ($68.23B), Texas ($41.05B) and New York ($38.35).
The most populated states likewise received the most loans, led by California (581K), Florida (393K) and Texas (389K).
Rural and less populated states are getting much less money overall, including Wyoming, which has only received about 13,000 loans valued at $1.04B in total.
Buy this visualization
When measured on a per capita basis, Washington, DC is receiving the highest share of money in the country at $3,029 per person.
At the other end of the spectrum, American territories far away from the capitol are receiving much less per capita, including American Samoa ($213), Puerto Rico ($564) and the Northern Mariana Islands ($765).
There’s a group of states across the South receiving relatively less per capita than other states, stretching from Arizona ($1,185) to North Carolina ($1,183). These are the same places now seeing the worst case numbers for the coronavirus.
First, we illustrated the overall volume of dollars according to the US Small Business Administration with a color-coded map, overlaid with a yellow circle for the overall number of loans. This gives you a sense for which states are getting the most money in general. Second, we wanted to dive deeper into the numbers and make adjustments for population levels. So we created another map highlighting loan payments on a per capita basis, according to US Census figures for 2019, highlighting the places disproportionately benefiting from the program.
Top 10 State With the Highest Overall PPP Funding
State Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Funding Loan Count 1. California $68.23B 581,140 2. Texas $41.05B 389,396 3. New York $38.35B 323,903 4. Florida $32.05B 393,028 5. Illinois $22.49B 202,143 6. Pennsylvania $20.71B 165,918 7. Ohio $18.37B 140,270 8. New Jersey $17.20B 147,550 9. Michigan $15.96B 121,135 10. Georgia $14.5B 156,814
Top 10 States With the Highest PPP Funding Per Capita
State Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Funding – Per Capita 1. Washington, DC $3,029 2. North Dakota $2,316 3. Massachusetts $2,079 4. Minnesota $1,987 5. New York $1,971 6. New Jersey $1,937 7. Vermont $1,903 8. South Dakota $1,881 9. Connecticut $1,877 10. New Hampshire $1,876
The combination of both of our maps paints a complete picture of the Paycheck Protection Program. It’s no surprise to learn that the states with the highest population are taking in the most money overall. In fact, 9 out of the top 10 states receiving the most dollars are among the 10 most populated. California ($68.23B), Texas ($41.05B), New York ($38.35B) and Florida ($32.05) are the only four states to pull in more than $30B. That represents 34.45% of the total distribution, and those states account for 33.34% of the country’s population. At first glance, this suggests the Paycheck Protection Program was reasonably distributed across the country.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A closer look at the per capita disbursement of funds suggests a more complicated story. In fact, people living in some places took home significantly more money than other people. The clear stand out is Washington, DC where the per capita disbursement astonishingly came out to $3,029. Why would the businesses physically located in the capitol get more money on a per capita basis than everyone else?
It is worth pointing out who is at the opposite end of the spectrum, with the least PPP dollars per capita. That would be American Samoa ($213), Puerto Rico ($564) and the Northern Mariana Islands ($765). We didn’t map these locations because they aren’t official states, but it’s interesting to note the Americans receiving the least PPP aid are geographically the furthest from the capitol.
There are two other insights worth calling out about the per capita map of PPP dollars. North Dakota and South Dakota are two of the 6 least populated states in the country, and yet they land in the top 10. And there is an obvious collection of lightly shaded states across the South, stretching from Arizona ($1,185) to North Carolina ($1,183). West Virginia received the least money when adjusted for population among any US state ($1,005). And yet these are the exact same places undergoing the brunt of the latest surge in cases. The pandemic and economic crisis are therefore colliding with particular force across the South and Sun Belt.
Do you think there will be another round of economic stimulus in light of the resurgent coronavirus? What do you think will be in the package? Let us know in the comments.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--GOLDMAN: Daily new #COVID19 cases “are now rising in states containing over 90% of the population …

GOLDMAN : Daily new # COVID19 cases “ are now rising in states containing over 90 % of the population @ @ @ @ @ reflect increasing testing at least to some extent , states might nonetheless wait to continue @ @ @ @ @ counts reach lower levels .. ” pic.twitter.com/EG04VX6nTb

GOLDMAN: Daily new #COVID19 cases “are now rising in states containing over 90% of the population .. Although this trend may reflect increasing testing at least to some extent, states might nonetheless wait to continue with reopening until new case counts reach lower levels ..” pic.twitter.com/EG04VX6nTb
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Exited the last of my 2yo TSLA long position today. Not sticking around for earnings.

I don ’ t care if TSLA goes to $ 2,000 after earnings tomorrow .
I ’ m not sticking around to find out , good luck to the call buyers that are still holding .
I bought 400 shares in 50-100 share increments the second half of 2018 , cost average was around $ 335 .
I started selling in increments last week , cost average around $ 1,550 .
I think I ’ m getting out at the best possible time , the company is valued at $ 100 billion more than Toyota .
And it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put together .
I think the stock at $ 1,000 is priced for perfection , $ 1,500+ is just nuts considering the macroeconomic backdrop .
Nonetheless , I like the company and hope it takes over the world .
I ’ d like to buy a Model Y whenever my Camry kicks the bucket , maybe it will have the zero-cobalt million-mile battery in it by then .
Maybe Elon will get the body paint and paneling issues worked out by then , both of my buddies who bought Model 3s the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paint , interiors and body paneling that ’ s required warranty repairs by Tesla .
I ’ ve ridden in a Model Y and the only thing I dislike is the crossbar in the back window that makes getting a clear look out of your rearview difficult .
The $ 480,000ish profit was all in taxable accounts unfortunately .
So 20 percent long term capital gains tax , minus another 3.8 percent in net investment income tax .
So $ 365,000 left over .
No state income tax .
Will probably spend it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next pullback .
I ’ ll send a check to the IRS for the $ 115,000 next week when the last of my sales clear .
No sense putting it in a HYSA until next year , out of sight and out of mind .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ihasanemail
I don’t care if TSLA goes to $2,000 after earnings tomorrow. I’m not sticking around to find out, good luck to the call buyers that are still holding. I bought 400 shares in 50-100 share increments the second half of 2018, cost average was around $335. I started selling in increments last week, cost average around $1,550.
I think I’m getting out at the best possible time, the company is valued at $100 billion more than Toyota. And it’s valued more than every other major carmaker put together. I think the stock at $1,000 is priced for perfection, $1,500+ is just nuts considering the macroeconomic backdrop. Nonetheless, I like the company and hope it takes over the world. I’d like to buy a Model Y whenever my Camry kicks the bucket, maybe it will have the zero-cobalt million-mile battery in it by then. Maybe Elon will get the body paint and paneling issues worked out by then, both of my buddies who bought Model 3s the past two years have had issues with the paint, interiors and body paneling that’s required warranty repairs by Tesla. I’ve ridden in a Model Y and the only thing I dislike is the crossbar in the back window that makes getting a clear look out of your rearview difficult.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The $480,000ish profit was all in taxable accounts unfortunately. So 20 percent long term capital gains tax, minus another 3.8 percent in net investment income tax. So $365,000 left over. No state income tax. Will probably spend it on more Goldman Sachs shares on the next pullback. I’ll send a check to the IRS for the $115,000 next week when the last of my sales clear. No sense putting it in a HYSA until next year, out of sight and out of mind.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks – Bloomberg

Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks As U.S. stocks climb to their most expensive levels in @ @ @ @ @ in charge of the companies benefiting from the rally are showing signs of anxiety.Corporate insiders @ @ @ @ @ the bottom in March , are now mostly sellers .

🇺🇸 #SPX | #Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks – Bloomberg
*Sell-buy ratio jumps to the highest level since 2017
*Link: t.co/S69jXGlG2U pic.twitter.com/gAfewZT0I0 — Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) July 22, 2020
As U.S. stocks climb to their most expensive levels in two decades, the executives in charge of the companies benefiting from the rally are showing signs of anxiety.Corporate insiders, whose buying correctly signaled the bottom in March, are now mostly sellers.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Analysts expect V shape…

Analysts expect V shape…

That sound you hear is Trent Reznor screaming .
pic.twitter.com/zuLI4fNkkA — Rudy Havenstein does not have to make anything up @ @ @ @ @ July 22 , 2020

That sound you hear is Trent Reznor screaming. pic.twitter.com/zuLI4fNkkA
— Rudy Havenstein does not have to make anything up. (@RudyHavenstein) July 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--In case you wonder who owns Congress…

In case you wonder who owns Congress…

In case you wonder who owns Congress… t.co/fjU5uh3NQH Jeff Bezos is now personally worth more than Nike , McDonald 's @ @ @ @ @ 50 % of the Dow t.co/WZcrWHzbQt

In case you wonder who owns Congress… t.co/fjU5uh3NQH
Jeff Bezos is now personally worth more than Nike, McDonald's, Costco, and almost 50% of the Dow t.co/WZcrWHzbQt
— Business Insider (@businessinsider) July 22, 2020


Potential fallen angels

Unprecedented Decline : One-Fifth Of All American Department Stores Have Closed Since 2018 via @ forbes $ JCP $ M @ @ @ @ @ of anchor spaces are vacant today* ( my own analysis ) — > this could @ @ @ @ @ the next few yearst.co/8j9ElVuqDM

Unprecedented Decline: One-Fifth Of All American Department Stores Have Closed Since 2018 via @forbes $JCP $M
*and more than 30% of anchor spaces are vacant today* (my own analysis) —> this could grow to 50% in the next few yearst.co/8j9ElVuqDM
— Catie McKee (@Catie1130) July 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--The Federal Reserve has literally become the new version of the worst of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac….

The Federal Reserve has literally become the new version of the worst of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac… .
except @ @ @ @ @ ericrosengren @ judyshel @ neelkashkari @ RaphaelBostic @ marydalyecon @ RobSKaplan @ steveliesman @ NickTimiraos @ @ @ @ @ these days , the MMT believers will have to confront the real cost of the @ @ @ @ @ retire and need to save a LOT more than any of their ancestors in history @ @ @ @ @ for future GDP and consumption Interest rates used to 'afford ' the debt👇🤔 pic.twitter.com/H5GuRM7WKu

The Federal Reserve has literally become the new version of the worst of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac…. except for stock markets🤦♂ 👇 @ericrosengren @judyshel @neelkashkari @RaphaelBostic @marydalyecon @RobSKaplan @steveliesman @NickTimiraos @michaelsderby t.co/6dlq9I9Lay
One of these days, the MMT believers will have to confront the real cost of the Debt – their inability to retire and need to save a LOT more than any of their ancestors in history did and what that means for future GDP and consumption
Interest rates used to 'afford' the debt👇🤔 pic.twitter.com/H5GuRM7WKu
— M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) July 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Greater Greed Than 1990s Tech Bubble

Greater Greed Than 1990s Tech Bubble

If you aren ’ t an experienced investor or one that studies history , you will easily get swept up by the cycle .
It ’ s almost impossible not to get swept up by the rally in the big internet stocks which has accelerated this year .
Paul Singer stated , “ As a runaway bull market persists , its relentless vacuum cleaner eventually sucks everyone in .
Investors who are skeptical about the perceived overvaluation are forced to watch as their career prospects melt down and security prices melt up.
” Professional investors simply must own some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Usually , towards the end of extreme bull runs , the hottest stocks become the only ones that go up ( the market gets bad breadth ) .
The investors who resist will lose their jobs .
The investors who have relentlessly bought every single dip in these stocks control the market .
As an individual , you have a huge leg up on the professionals ( even though they have access to the best information ) because you have no clients to impress .
Gaining the proper temperament is critical to being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not doing anything can be just as important as doing something .
Great investments require you to hold them for years without doing anything .
It can be very boring to stick with a great company especially if you watch the market every day .
It ’ s harder for a professional since that ’ s their job .
You can work at your day job and get a hobby once you ’ ve found a winning position .
Obviously , you must continually read up on it , but there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secondly , going against the popular opinion is difficult .
It takes great discipline .
You can ’ t be a contrarian just to be one .
You need to stick with your principles and only go against the grain when the market is acting fallaciously .
In other words , you stay neutral while the market swings incessantly .
Beginners try to go against every single trend which is a huge mistake .
Don ’ t act as if a trend will reverse just because you discovered it .
Professional investors can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because it ’ s their job to invest it .
However , sometimes cash is advantageous .
Generally , it doesn ’ t make sense to have a lot of cash in an investment portfolio , but in the rare circumstances where cash is important , it can provide massive opportunities .
There have been great opportunities to quickly multiply investments in each bear market .
Professionals herd into the same stocks .
There are stocks called hedge fund hotels .
These are popular high performing stocks that money managers pile into .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but ultimately , they bought because the stock was going up .
Paul Singer went on to say , “ New rationalizations , disguised as rationales , enter the higher levels of discourse to justify jumping , or creeping , onto the asset-price train despite disdaining it when it was dozens of percentage points lower.
” Money managers and analysts have unlimited access to information .
It ’ s extremely easy to come up with a reason to own a stock .
Obviously , you don ’ t want to justify a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
You want to avoid justifications that ignore the sober reality .
There are almost always mistakenly valued stocks .
This is the exact opposite of the efficient market hypothesis .
It ’ s actually rare for most stocks to be fairly valued .
In the present , it ’ s always an opinion as to whether each stock is fairly valued , but we can look back to prove there were extreme mistakes such as the housing bubble in the mid 2000s .
Sometimes sharp movements in assets occur because of unpredictable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occur because of extreme sentiment swings .
There are constantly extreme mistakes .
Their size matters .
For example , the fracking bubble in the 2010s didn ’ t take the economy down ; the housing bubble did because a house is a person ’ s most valuable asset .
If there is a bubble in the big internet stocks , this is a huge deal for the market because they have gotten so large .
The top 6 stocks in the Nasdaq are 49 % of the index .
The other half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory , if those large firms fell 50 % , they ’ d take the Nasdaq down 25 % .
The Nasdaq would fall more in that extreme example because the other momentum/tech stocks would fall with them .
As you can see from the chart below , while the big internet stocks might not be cut in half , the Nasdaq fear and greed index is showing higher greed than it did in the late 1990s tech bubble .
The large internet stocks have done so well that some are claiming them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new consumer staples stocks .
As we mentioned , anyone can come up with any reason to justify any price action .
The concept of us not being able to live without the big internet companies doesn ’ t justify unlimited valuations .
Being needed doesn ’ t mean they are safe stocks like the staples .
Generally , the exact moment when risk is ignored because the investment is deemed safe by the market is the time the asset becomes risky .
The concept of a ‘ new paradigm ’ usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rallies than the beginning .
As you can see in the chart above , the ‘ new normal ’ for software multiples has gone parabolic .
In the 2000s besides the housing bubble , there was a commodities bubble in fertilizer and oil .
The bull market was based on a ‘ new paradigm ’ in which China would demand virtually unlimited meat and energy .
These ‘ new paradigms ’ are based in truth , but the valuations get absurd .
Thus , ending the rally .
The graphic below shows 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survivorship bias when they assume each new cloud stock will be the next Microsoft .
Which other biases are investors exhibiting now ?
Which ones do you struggle with ?
There is some extreme optimism in the big internet stocks and the cloud stocks in general .
That doesn ’ t mean a top is near .
In fact , if this is a true bubble , the worst thing to do is to try to bet against it because the closer we are to a top , the more extreme the rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few weeks off , a short position can be a huge mistake .
This article ’ s goal is to explain how bubbles form even though there are so many smart people investing .
Human emotions never change from cycle to cycle .

by UPFINA
If you aren’t an experienced investor or one that studies history, you will easily get swept up by the cycle. It’s almost impossible not to get swept up by the rally in the big internet stocks which has accelerated this year. Paul Singer stated, “As a runaway bull market persists, its relentless vacuum cleaner eventually sucks everyone in. Investors who are skeptical about the perceived overvaluation are forced to watch as their career prospects melt down and security prices melt up.”
Professional investors simply must own some of the big internet and cloud stocks. Usually, towards the end of extreme bull runs, the hottest stocks become the only ones that go up (the market gets bad breadth). The investors who resist will lose their jobs. The investors who have relentlessly bought every single dip in these stocks control the market. As an individual, you have a huge leg up on the professionals (even though they have access to the best information) because you have no clients to impress.
Gaining the proper temperament is critical to being a great investor. For example, not doing anything can be just as important as doing something. Great investments require you to hold them for years without doing anything. It can be very boring to stick with a great company especially if you watch the market every day. It’s harder for a professional since that’s their job. You can work at your day job and get a hobby once you’ve found a winning position. Obviously, you must continually read up on it, but there’s no need to overanalyze the situation.
Secondly, going against the popular opinion is difficult. It takes great discipline. You can’t be a contrarian just to be one. You need to stick with your principles and only go against the grain when the market is acting fallaciously. In other words, you stay neutral while the market swings incessantly. Beginners try to go against every single trend which is a huge mistake. Don’t act as if a trend will reverse just because you discovered it.
The Pros Have A Disadvantage
Professional investors can’t hold a lot of cash because it’s their job to invest it. However, sometimes cash is advantageous. Generally, it doesn’t make sense to have a lot of cash in an investment portfolio, but in the rare circumstances where cash is important, it can provide massive opportunities. There have been great opportunities to quickly multiply investments in each bear market.
Professionals herd into the same stocks. There are stocks called hedge fund hotels. These are popular high performing stocks that money managers pile into. Managers say they have done the research, but ultimately, they bought because the stock was going up. Paul Singer went on to say, “New rationalizations, disguised as rationales, enter the higher levels of discourse to justify jumping, or creeping, onto the asset-price train despite disdaining it when it was dozens of percentage points lower.” Money managers and analysts have unlimited access to information. It’s extremely easy to come up with a reason to own a stock. Obviously, you don’t want to justify a position that doesn’t make sense. You want to avoid justifications that ignore the sober reality.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
There’s Always A Bubble Somewhere
There are almost always mistakenly valued stocks. This is the exact opposite of the efficient market hypothesis. It’s actually rare for most stocks to be fairly valued. In the present, it’s always an opinion as to whether each stock is fairly valued, but we can look back to prove there were extreme mistakes such as the housing bubble in the mid 2000s. Sometimes sharp movements in assets occur because of unpredictable events, but other times the dislocations occur because of extreme sentiment swings. There are constantly extreme mistakes. Their size matters. For example, the fracking bubble in the 2010s didn’t take the economy down; the housing bubble did because a house is a person’s most valuable asset.
If there is a bubble in the big internet stocks, this is a huge deal for the market because they have gotten so large. The top 6 stocks in the Nasdaq are 49% of the index. The other half is the other 3,294 firms. In theory, if those large firms fell 50%, they’d take the Nasdaq down 25%. The Nasdaq would fall more in that extreme example because the other momentum/tech stocks would fall with them. As you can see from the chart below, while the big internet stocks might not be cut in half, the Nasdaq fear and greed index is showing higher greed than it did in the late 1990s tech bubble.
🇺🇸 Bloomberg Fear-Greed Indicator, using weekly data for the #Nasdaq, rose to new record level, surpassing a high from March 2000.
*These highs contrasted with a plunge in March that produced record weekly lows, surpassing those in December 2018 and May 2000. pic.twitter.com/OfPR4iM5ma — Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) July 20, 2020
Tech Stocks Are Now Safe
The large internet stocks have done so well that some are claiming them to be so safe that they are the new consumer staples stocks. As we mentioned, anyone can come up with any reason to justify any price action. The concept of us not being able to live without the big internet companies doesn’t justify unlimited valuations. Being needed doesn’t mean they are safe stocks like the staples.
Generally, the exact moment when risk is ignored because the investment is deemed safe by the market is the time the asset becomes risky. The concept of a ‘new paradigm’ usually comes up closer to the end of rallies than the beginning. As you can see in the chart above, the ‘new normal’ for software multiples has gone parabolic. In the 2000s besides the housing bubble, there was a commodities bubble in fertilizer and oil. The bull market was based on a ‘new paradigm’ in which China would demand virtually unlimited meat and energy. These ‘new paradigms’ are based in truth, but the valuations get absurd. Thus, ending the rally.
The graphic below shows 20 common biases. Investment managers are ignoring survivorship bias when they assume each new cloud stock will be the next Microsoft. Which other biases are investors exhibiting now? Which ones do you struggle with?
Conclusion
There is some extreme optimism in the big internet stocks and the cloud stocks in general. That doesn’t mean a top is near. In fact, if this is a true bubble, the worst thing to do is to try to bet against it because the closer we are to a top, the more extreme the rally will get. If you are even a few weeks off, a short position can be a huge mistake. This article’s goal is to explain how bubbles form even though there are so many smart people investing. Human emotions never change from cycle to cycle.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--What is the case for Gold?

What is the case for Gold?

It is time to look again at a subject which pops up every now and then and this morning has done exactly that .
From The Guardian The price of gold hit $ 1,865 per ounce for the first time since September 2011 this morning .
Gold has surged by 20 % since the depths of the pandemic , and some analysts reckon it could hit $ 2,000 for the first time ever .
A weak dollar is good for gold , given its reputation as a safe-haven from inflation and money-printing .
Let us start with the price noting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ August ) as we remind ourselves that there is often quite a gap between futures prices and spot gold these days .
That leads to a whole raft of conspiracy theories , but I will confine myself to pointing out that in a world where interest-rates are pretty much zero one reason for the difference is gone .
Strictly we should use the US Dollar rate which is of the order of 0.1 % or not much .
Actually a rally had been in play before the Covid-19 pandemic as we ended 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However like pretty much all financial markets there was a pandemic sell-off peaking on March 19th a date we keep coming back to .
My chart notes a low of US $ 1482 .
Since then it has not always been up , up and away but for the last 6 weeks or so the only way has indeed been up .
Of course there is a danger in looking at a peak highlighted by this from The Stone Roses .
What is driving this ?
The Guardian highlights this and indeed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detail .
Here we do have a bit of a problem as whilst the US Dollar is lower it is not really weak .
Of course it is against Gold by definition but it was not long ago we were considering it to be strong and it certainly was earlier this year especially against the emerging market currencies .
At the beginning of 2018 US Dollar index futures fell to 89 as opposed to the 95.4 of this morning but the Gold price was US $ 1340 .
So whilst monthly charts are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Mars might conclude that a higher Dollar has led to a higher Gold price .
If we stay with currencies those from my country the UK have done much better out of Gold .
Looking at a Sterling or UK Pound £ price we see £1465 this morning compared to a previous peak of less than US $ 1200 and before this surge a price of around US $ 1000 .
Another perspective is provided by India a nation with many Gold fans and those fans should they have owned Gold will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the past 20 years .
Whilst there has been a general trend towards this super massive black hole there are particular features .
For example a nation renowned for being Gold investors cut its official interest-rate to -0.75 % in January 2015 and it is still there .
That is Switzerland and the Swissy has remained strong overall , so the weak currency argument fades here .
We have a small pack of “ Carry Trade ” nations who end up with strong currencies and negative interest-rates including Japan and more recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we have seen substantial interest-rate cuts .
The UK cut from 0.75 % to 0.1 % for example reducing the price of holding Gold .
But I think that there is more than that .
You see official interest-rates are increasingly irrelevant these days as we note cutting them has not worked and the way that people have adapted for example the increased number of fixed-rate mortgages .
If we look a my indicator for that I note that we have seen a new record low of -0.11 % for the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now all of the countries I have noted have negative interest-rates or if you prefer the 0 % provided by Gold is a gain and not a loss .
As I pointed out in my article of July 10th the US does not have negative bond yields but is exhibiting so familiar trends .
The five-year yield has nudged a little nearer at 0.26 % this morning .
That contrasts sharply with the ( just under ) 3 % of October 2018 .
So a 2.7 % per annum push since then in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the pandemic was accompanied by a wave of experts predicting zero and negative inflation .
As I pointed out back then I hope I have taught you all what that means and this highlighted by @ chigrl earlier links in with the Gold theme .
They are essentially making a case for Indians being long Gold although they have not put it like that .
In the UK last night saw the latest in an increasingly desperate series of attempts by the UK Office for National Statistics to justify its attempt to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % per annum .
That would affect around 10 million pensioners according to the actuary who spoke .
Indeed the economics editor of the Financial Times Chris Giles was reduced to quoting a couple of anonymous replies to one of his own articles as evidence.How weak is that ?
Still I guess that when you are impersonating King Canute any piece of wood looks like a branch .
But inflation is on the horizon which of course is why the UK keeps looking for measures which produce lower numbers .
As you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Gold price .
The only issue is when they feed in because having established an annual gain of 2.7 % from lower US bond yields only an Ivory Tower would expect that to apply each year .
In fact I think I can hear one typing that right now .
In reality once we come down to altitudes with more oxygen we know that such a thing creates a more favourable environment but exactly when it applies is much less predictable .
I have used negative interest-rates rather than the “ money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a more direct influence .
I have posted my views on the problems of using Gold ( the fixed supply is both a strenght and a weakness ) before as a monetary anchor .
It was also covered in my opinion by Arthur C. Clarke in 2061 .
So let move onto something that used to be used as the money supply and some famous British seafarers made their name by stealing .
So I will leave you with those who famously advised us that we may not get what we want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by Shaun Richards
It is time to look again at a subject which pops up every now and then and this morning has done exactly that. From The Guardian
The price of gold hit $1,865 per ounce for the first time since September 2011 this morning. Gold has surged by 20% since the depths of the pandemic, and some analysts reckon it could hit $2,000 for the first time ever. A weak dollar is good for gold, given its reputation as a safe-haven from inflation and money-printing.
Let us start with the price noting that this is a futures price ( August) as we remind ourselves that there is often quite a gap between futures prices and spot gold these days. That leads to a whole raft of conspiracy theories, but I will confine myself to pointing out that in a world where interest-rates are pretty much zero one reason for the difference is gone. Strictly we should use the US Dollar rate which is of the order of 0.1% or not much.
Actually a rally had been in play before the Covid-19 pandemic as we ended 2019 at US $1535 and the rallied. However like pretty much all financial markets there was a pandemic sell-off peaking on March 19th a date we keep coming back to. My chart notes a low of US $1482. Since then it has not always been up,up and away but for the last 6 weeks or so the only way has indeed been up. Of course there is a danger in looking at a peak highlighted by this from The Stone Roses.
I’m standing alone
I’m watching you all
I’m seeing you sinking
I’m standing alone
You’re weighing the gold
I’m watching you sinking
Fool’s gold
What is driving this?
Weak Dollar
The Guardian highlights this and indeed goes further.
Marketwatch says the the US dollar is getting “punched in the mouth” – having dropped 5.1% in the last quarter. It’s lost 2.3% just in July so far, partly due to a revival in the euro. And there could be wore to come:
There is some more detail.
The US dollar is taking a pummelling, sending commodity prices rattling higher. The dollar has sunk to its lowest level since early March, when the coronavirus crisis was sweeping global markets. The selloff has driven the euro to its highest level in 18 months, at $1.1547 this morning. Sterling has also benefited, hitting $1.276 last night for the first time in six weeks.
Here we do have a bit of a problem as whilst the US Dollar is lower it is not really weak. Of course it is against Gold by definition but it was not long ago we were considering it to be strong and it certainly was earlier this year especially against the emerging market currencies. At the beginning of 2018 US Dollar index futures fell to 89 as opposed to the 95.4 of this morning but the Gold price was US $1340. So whilst monthly charts are a broad brush our man or woman from Mars might conclude that a higher Dollar has led to a higher Gold price.
If we stay with currencies those from my country the UK have done much better out of Gold. Looking at a Sterling or UK Pound £ price we see £1465 this morning compared to a previous peak of less than US $1200 and before this surge a price of around US $1000. Another perspective is provided by India a nation with many Gold fans and those fans should they have owned Gold will according to GoldPrice.org have made 996% over the past 20 years.
Negative Interest-Rates
Whilst there has been a general trend towards this super massive black hole there are particular features. For example a nation renowned for being Gold investors cut its official interest-rate to -0.75% in January 2015 and it is still there. That is Switzerland and the Swissy has remained strong overall, so the weak currency argument fades here. We have a small pack of “Carry Trade” nations who end up with strong currencies and negative interest-rates including Japan and more recently the Euro.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The generic situation is that we have seen substantial interest-rate cuts. The UK cut from 0.75% to 0.1% for example reducing the price of holding Gold. But I think that there is more than that. You see official interest-rates are increasingly irrelevant these days as we note cutting them has not worked and the way that people have adapted for example the increased number of fixed-rate mortgages. If we look a my indicator for that I note that we have seen a new record low of -0.11% for the UK five-year bond yield this morning. So now all of the countries I have noted have negative interest-rates or if you prefer the 0% provided by Gold is a gain and not a loss.
As I pointed out in my article of July 10th the US does not have negative bond yields but is exhibiting so familiar trends. The five-year yield has nudged a little nearer at 0.26% this morning. That contrasts sharply with the (just under) 3% of October 2018. So a 2.7% per annum push since then in Gold’s favour.
Inflation
The arrival of the pandemic was accompanied by a wave of experts predicting zero and negative inflation. As I pointed out back then I hope I have taught you all what that means and this highlighted by @chigrl earlier links in with the Gold theme.
India can expect inflation to surge to more than double the central bank’s target and the currency could lose a quarter of its value if the Reserve Bank of India begins printing money to fund the government’s spending…….Rabobank estimates that inflation could surge to an average of 12% in 2021 if the RBI was to finance a second stimulus package of $270 billion, a similar amount to what was announced in the first spending plan earlier this year. The rupee could plunge 16% against the dollar from 2020 levels and almost 25% from 2019 under that scenario.
They are essentially making a case for Indians being long Gold although they have not put it like that.
In the UK last night saw the latest in an increasingly desperate series of attempts by the UK Office for National Statistics to justify its attempt to reduce the UK RPI by around 1% per annum. That would affect around 10 million pensioners according to the actuary who spoke. Indeed the economics editor of the Financial Times Chris Giles was reduced to quoting a couple of anonymous replies to one of his own articles as evidence.How weak is that? Still I guess that when you are impersonating King Canute any piece of wood looks like a branch.
But inflation is on the horizon which of course is why the UK keeps looking for measures which produce lower numbers.
Comment
As you can see there are factors in play supporting the Gold price. The only issue is when they feed in because having established an annual gain of 2.7% from lower US bond yields only an Ivory Tower would expect that to apply each year. In fact I think I can hear one typing that right now. In reality once we come down to altitudes with more oxygen we know that such a thing creates a more favourable environment but exactly when it applies is much less predictable. I have used negative interest-rates rather than the “money printing” of The Guardian because it is a more direct influence.
I have posted my views on the problems of using Gold ( the fixed supply is both a strenght and a weakness) before as a monetary anchor. It was also covered in my opinion by Arthur C. Clarke in 2061. So let move onto something that used to be used as the money supply and some famous British seafarers made their name by stealing.
Silver rallied Tuesday to finish at its highest level since 2014, up by more than 80% from the year’s low, benefiting as both a precious and industrial metal as it looks to catch up with gold’s impressive year-to-date performance…..In Tuesday trading, September silver contract SIU20, 3.26% rose $1.37, or 6.8%, to settle at $21.557 an ounce on Comex. Prices based on the most-active contracts marked their highest settlement since March 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data. They trade 83% above the year-to-date low of $11.772 seen on March 18, which was the lowest since January 2009. ( MarketWatch)
So I will leave you with those who famously advised us that we may not get what we want but we may get what we need.
Oh babe, you got my soul
You got the silver you got the gold
If that’s your love, it just made me blind