investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Denial Dominates the Dummies

Denial Dominates the Dummies

One of my reasons I started this website years ago was to counter all the denial that I saw in the mainstream media about how long and deep the problems from the Great Financial Crisis would be and about how we were failing in every way to resolve the greed , decay and especially faulty thinking that would assure our next collapse would be even greater than the Great Recession .
Today , the same lame thinking still dominates , but not just in the media .
It ’ s pervasive in the general public , too .
Of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock investors , who actually think because stocks can float above it all , the world must be doing fine .
I found myself observing a … shall we call it … a balloon ride crowded with lightheaded investors floating over my little mountain this week ?
( I live in the mountains , you know ? )
Even as I tried to shout out a warning that their overcrowded gondola was starting to tear at the bottom and that the top of their balloon was on fire , they scoffed and sailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out toward a vast and stormy looking reach of rocky peaks and deep canyons .
They could have landed on the grassy uphill slope just before my little mountaintop and got off , but all they could seem to see was blue sky .
It beckoned them .
I am still dismayed at how light heads can be at their level of floatiness .
The thin air is obviously not conducive to clear thinking .
While I believe it is vital to keep yelling warnings to those whose heads are in the clouds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its lunacy , sometimes breaking dreams that float on nothing but hope feels … hopeless .
Years of irrational thought about the economy and markets have kept us from making the many fundamental changes we need in order to get back to the solid ground of an actual capitalist economy .
We can not build structures that reach into the sky without respect to the laws of economics as well as a set of man-made rules that prevent behavior that is well known to be reckless and , so , destructive to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behaviors that serve only a greedy few .
We want , instead , to keep feeding dreams of clear and unrestrained flights of fancy to easy riches .
In economics , that means we ’ ve burned up regulations like Glass-Steagall and cast off such ballast as the illegality of stock buybacks in favor of sailing higher and faster with no restraints .
We ’ ve untethered the high-flying market from solid economic ground .
Worst of all , we ’ ve become so lightheaded about how economies and markets function , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ storm we are sailing into or heed warnings that might bring us safely down .
What follows is an example from my experience this week in the airy writings and oxygen-deprived comments of a small clutch of light-headed investors .
While I continue to come across many articles that exude lame thinking , I ’ m going to focus here on just one .
I won ’ t name the person who wrote it or provide a reference to it because he ’ s small potatoes .
If he were a big public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d reference his article directly ; but my point is not to lampoon the person but to show just how poor the prevalent arguments from stock investors and advisors continue to be .
The article I ’ m referring to asked whether a recession was coming based on recession indicators we talked about last year here on The Great Recession Blog .
Only we talked about those indicators a year or more ago when they could actually indicate something .
The author thought it good to say these economic wind socks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fly into a recession , promising calm , blue skies for market balloonists in the days ahead .
I had to wonder if the writer lived on mars and hadn ’ t noticed that a recession was already declared to have begun in the first quarter of 2020 .
I even had to look at the date of the article to see if I was reading a rerun of an old article .
Nope .
Current .
Wow , I thought , as I looked at the tornado howling through the canyon they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good time for balloon rides .
The windsock he pointed his passengers to was the yield-curve indicator to see if it is showing a recession to be likely .
He noted that it was not yet inverted .
He must have been asleep at the start of the storm I guess .
Inversion already happened last year — twice .
I thought everyone who talks about this recession indicator knew the yield curve inversion is forward looking .
This author even said it is forward looking , but apparently , he didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than six months and that it never keeps indicating recession once one has already started .
The indicator I ’ m writing about ( and that he was writing about ) is this one : As you can see , each time the indicator dipped into inversion ( a reading below zero ) a recession ensued months after it dipped .
In fact , as I often noted here last year , recessions do not start until after the yield curve reverts from its state of inversion back to normal — usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal .
You can see that in the graph , too .
( See : “ BOND PRIMER : What is an inverted yield curve and what does it mean ?
” and “ BOND PRIMER : Does Inverted Yield Curve Indicate Recession ?
“ ) The yield curve inverted over a year ago , and it reverted many months ago , so it already predicted this recession more than a year ago .
It ’ s not surprising , then , that the train arrived at the station right on time six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was reading saw no recession currently marked on the graph ( the gray zones ) and sees the yield curve has reverted , so all must be fine ahead now that the indicator has stabilized .
We must have already cleared out of the recession zone !
Really , the start of a recession just means this gauge ’ s messaging utility is long past .
The yield curve was already 100 % correct in having predicted a recession .
It ’ s done its job !
That train not only already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s now long on its way down the recessionary railroad .
The yield-curve indicator has never been able to tell us anything about how long a recession would last or how deep it would go .
As you can see , one of the slightest dips into inversion was followed by the largest , deepest recession on the graph .
The author even provided this chart from the Fed where you can plainly see the yield curve always inverts ahead of the recession by six months or more and , in most cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began .
You ’ d think he could , at least , read the charts he presents ; but that doesn ’ t happen when people are struggling to avoid seeing reality .
Let ’ s get our heads out of the clouds and look at bedrock reality !
This guy is nuts .
We ’ ve already been declared in a recession , and he ’ s looking skyward at forward indicators to say they don ’ t show we are about to fly into one .
On that basis , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right in indicating belief that the economy is going to get better and pricing accordingly because , “ Look , the indicators shows there may be no recession ahead !
” ( As if the stock market knows anything ! )
He also quoted the always lame Nobel economist Paul Krugman as backup to show hope waits ahead .
Who on earth cares what economists are forecasting as a recession probability ?
No professional group has ever been worse at its own game .
Open your own eyes and think for yourself , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the recession of the dot-com bust coming and certainly didn ’ t see the Great Recession coming .
So , who cares where they think we ’ ll be in six months ?
Look at the mud hole we ’ re already in .
Wake up and smell the rotting cabbage !
The improvement in the unemployment rate that came with reopening the economy after the viral shutdown flattened much more than the viral infection rate or death rate over a month ago .
It has only changed incrementally since then .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ gig ” workers in the mix , who are now received special forms of unemployment benefits made just for this event , the unemployment rate has actually increased every week for more than a month and is over 32-million people .
That ’ s 32-million and NOW RISING !
Here ’ s a reminder of the graph I published a couple of weeks ago in an article titled “ Labor Dept .
Trumps Its Own Numbers “ : This peaked and flatlining unemployment means there is no question the second half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s already doing so , and a vaccine — if a vaccine even happens ( given that scientists have never yet made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus ) — isn ’ t going to repair the economic damage already accomplished and firmly holding .
A vaccine won ’ t restore businesses that already crashed and died .
It may keep more businesses from going out , but there is a lot of loss that is already permanent , and the only reason we are not feeling the depth of pain is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government anesthesia .
That is what is allowing the market to float in delirium above it all .
The only things preventing the greatest storm of mortgage defaults and bankruptcies ever witnessed in US history right now — and this is straight fact , not opinion — are the equally massive government intervention programs that congress can no longer agree on — the $ 1,200 stimulus checks , the extended and enhanced unemployment benefits , the expanded unemployment benefits for gig workers , the payroll protection program , and the mortgage and rent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact , not opinion ?
PRIOR TO the Coronacrisis , over 70 % of Americans did not have enough money in savings to cover more than one month of living expenses .
Fact .
So , it is a certainty that , without those government emergency programs in place , 70 % of the 32-million unemployed would have already defaulted on their loans and rents long enough to be in foreclosure or eviction !
That ’ s 22 million people who would be in foreclosure or evicted from their rental homes !
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even if we assume there will be no second wave of coronavirus infections ( in spite of the fact that we are already seeing one ) , what would be the knock-on effects to other businesses from so many people driven out of their homes into destitution with no income and no savings ?
?
?
All of this means there is absolutely zero chance that the second half of 2020 gets better just because unemployment has flatlined .
The economy has already reopened for more than two months and has experienced as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from reopening .
The benefits saving us from total despair are increasingly being battled in congress , and more than 50 % of businesses on Yelp already reported they have closed “ PERMANENTLY.
” There is no reason to think the businesses that are not on yelp are somehow experiencing a different reality .
That is not going to change even with a vaccine .
It has already happened , and vaccines are not retroactive !
Yet , this high-flying balloonist of an author contended the stock market in its great wisdom may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead !
I ’ d say the operative word there is “ lies.
” On top of all these dead businesses with unemployment stalled at levels that may even exceed the Great Depression ( except that clear statistics are not available from back then ) , we have the worst social unrest across the nation since the 60 ’ s .
That is clearly only going to get worse just before and especially after the election , which is less than three months away .
If Trump wins , the radicals will go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the arteries in their heads will burst from enflamed madness . )
If Trump loses , Trump and his supporters will become enraged , claiming the election was totally rigged .
Trump is already laying the ground for that claim with his constant complaints that mail-in-votes are ripe for fraud .
( Maybe they are , in which case Trump voters will be right to be enraged ; but , whether they are right or not , you know Trump is already laying the groundwork to make such a claim .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ too , by saying Trump is denying the post office essential funding so that it can not deliver all ballots on time .
So , no matter the outcome , this election bursts the nation into greater flames .
Congress is stymied over renewing the current efforts to renew all the emergency programs that are keeping the economy minimally alive on government life support .
Trump saved only part of them by intervening via executive decree .
The chances of yet a third round being approved in the final quarter go down drastically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to assure his re-election .
After the election , he ’ s not as likely to fight his own party on this , and they will be even less likely to go for a third round .
So , your experience of the situation is not going to get better anytime soon .
If these safety nets fail , then the bottom really falls out since unemployment is no longer improving .
And all of that is IF the virus doesn ’ t get worse !
But , hey , maybe the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future earnings !
After all , the big recession gauges don ’ t show any recession coming !
Who drives their car off the cliff then worries about the fuel gauge ?
Afterward , a puzzled reader asks this writer who was floating on hopium , “ Hasn ’ t a recession already started ?
” You would think , “ Duh !
” ( But apparently the question needed to be asked , given the dumb article . )
The author ’ s only lame answer is , “ Yes … while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a recession , two of the three indicators mentioned in the article are forward-looking in nature.
” Oh , my gosh !
He even sees it and still doesn ’ t see it !
Of course the gauges he uses are forward looking , but he raised the question of whether we are even now in a recession by talking about the probability of going into a recession .
That is like asking what the probability is of your car going off a cliff when you have already gone over the cliff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air .
It ’ s a dumb question to raise because it is already 100 % fact !
( And cars with dangly wheels don ’ t make good hot-air balloons . )
Moreover , the fact that the author actually responded that the indicators are forward looking in nature shows he should have known his article was dumb .
They are likely to be looking BETTER after you ’ ve already entered the recession than they did before because you are now trying to work your way OUT of the recession you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never been known to indicate when that end will come .
That ’ s like staring at your gas gauge after you ran out of gas to see if it is indicating how long it will before your tank refills .
It can tell you the probability of running out of gas .
It has no predictive power for telling you when the tank will refill .
You have to figure the latter out by looking around at where you car sits .
Is it resting beside a gas pump while your hand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pump .
Then it ’ s pretty likely the tank will be full soon .
Or is it sitting at the bottom of a cliff in a pile of exploded rubble ?
As another example , talking about the “ probability ” of my stepping on a tack in my bare feet is uh , err , pointless when I ’ m already standing on one while running the probabilities that the event could really be happening .
It is an exercise in clownishness .
I don ’ t need to waste time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my shrieking foot is already telling me !
It ’ s unbelievable that you have to explain this stuff !
Another person even responded with glee , “ It ’ s over already .
I ’ d say 9M jobs recovered in 3 months shows that clearly.
” Seriously ?
What a fool ’ s pipe dream !
9-million jobs recovered out of 32-million lost !
Yeah , it ’ s over already !
We ’ ve recovered !
Glory hallelujah !
That is how thick the clouds of denial are .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to write to correct such vain thinking .
I ’ m explaining to those lost in the new politically correct math that five minus two doesn ’ t equal a million , no matter how much you want it to !
First , the meager 9-million jobs we got back compared to the 32-million lost were the low-hanging fruit .
They are the jobs that could and did come back when the edicts that shut down the economy were removed .
They were the jobs I said back in march would pop back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business .
Can ’ t these people figure out what the remaining 23M jobs mean ?
They are the ones that did not come back when the edicts were removed !
That means they are not going to come back for a long time because the edicts that shut them down were removed two months ago .
IF THEY COULD COME BACK , they would have .
If they remain lost because some places went back into shutdown , what does going back into shutdown so quickly tell you about the months ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs can ’ t ever come back because the businesses that provided them we ’ re destroyed .
They represent the actual economic wreckage that the permanent closure of restaurants and retail outlets already caused because the coronavirus hit an economy that was already faulty and feeble .
The economy simply blew apart when it got this corona kick in the chops .
As I wrote just a few days ago , The proof of that is that overall unemployment is already rising again .
You hear in the parrot press ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media just regurgitates what the government feeds it , and the government is conveniently not talking about the larger number that includes all of those on unconventional unemployment benefits ( the very ones congress is now arguing about ) .
Total unemployment is rising because the damage of closing is still playing through .
Can you even imagine how much worse that damage will be if congress does not renew those novel unemployment programs that are keeping people from defaulting on their mortgages and rent and that are protecting those who are defaulting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do still see straight A wiser person commenting on the lame article put these unemployment numbers in perspective : Indeed .
Who cares about the rest ?
So long as stocks are up , everything must be fine because the great wisdom of the market , according the writer I ’ m criticizing , knows there is hope in the near future .
The Great Oz has spoken !
We ’ ve already fallen so the falling must be over .
Right ?
We ’ ve fallen through the bottom of the balloon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , at least , we ’ re still in the air !
That ground appears to be approaching quickly , but what does that matter , the balloon is now rising faster without our dead weight !
How could we possibly still have recession ahead when we ’ re only a mere 32-million jobs short of what we had the start of the year ?
?
?
Whatever kind of crack they ’ re putting in their pipes where the writer of the article is from must be some pretty delusional stuff .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ all doped on government anesthesia with all those programs congress failed to re-approve , but which Trump partially reinstated .
People don ’ t feel the pain of hitting the ground yet , so they ignore the fact that they ’ re falling quickly .
You can not even imagine the economic catastrophe everyone would already be feeling without all that temporary shoring .
Hand me another pipe of whatever crack it is you have going over there , Man .
I ’ m going to need a lot bigger hit to believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to talk probabilities , the unemployment level we are now experiencing and the knock-on effects without government support for those who were forced to stop working would likely be beyond anything the US has experienced in its history .
Millions more jobs would rapidly evaporate because the 32-million lost the ability to buy things .
As millions of mortgages went into default , housing values would plummet from all the homes on the market .
Rent values would fall through the floor because millions of evictions put millions of rental homes on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ houses then have to try to rent out to people who can not afford rent anyway .
Thus , banks would go under .
Landlords would be sunk .
Construction would collapse .
Trump was smarter than his party and just ran out ahead of the party and quickly kicked some of the shoring back in place to avert immediate disaster .
( But , hey , there is no recession anywhere in sight because the yield curve doesn ’ t say one is coming ! )
Trump knew that , if people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-inflicted catastrophe ( not happening on this scale in Sweden , which didn ’ t shut down its economy and has far better viral recovery ) , he ’ d have no chance of getting re-elected , particularly if voters see their pain as resulting due to Republicans not realizing how bad the economic damage would be without this support .
When I wrote parts of the critique above in my own comments on the article ’ s page , another person replied with … Wow !
You can ’ t even beat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So , I replied as follows because years of market manipulation by Fed and government have turned the world into a rabbit hole where people no longer have a clue of how an economy and real markets actually work and where people are no longer even capable of grasping reality : Equities are completely meaningless .
I am definitely saying today ’ s market levels have nothing to do with a true outlook for the economy .
The market has been delusional economically for a long time .
It has totally disconnected from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but its own continuing delusions .
The market used to care about the economy , but stock markets like 2000 and housing markets like 2006 become completely irrational .
On top of that , this market was built from the ground up for the past decade on nothing but corporate debt , financed by the Fed buying massive government debt that resulted from huge corporate tax cuts that were already breaking the nation because they were accompanied with huge spending increases before COVID-19 hit .
The market has from the commencement of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profits .
Earnings were a complete joke the entire time !
What are earnings ?
By that term , the market means “ earnings per share.
” And the “ per share ” part is the reason earnings have been going up for most companies for years .
They were buying back their own shares at a rate never seen in history and broadly across almost the entire market .
So , of course , earnings per share looked like they were improving because the denominator was constantly shrinking .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At the same time , of course , it drives up stock prices because companies are using all of their own cash in many cases and all of the corporate credit in other cases to CREATE THEIR OWN MARKET FOR THEIR OWN SHARES !
They drive up the price because they vote to buy the shares in sufficient enough numbers to force the price higher by creating their own demand !
Another term for this is “ milking the company for all it ’ s worth ” because you are not investing back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but are burning cash and credit to make money off your stocks , not off your profits and are leaving the companies as empty shells because you don ’ t put enough back into them .
This market has been devoid of all business sense and all economic foresight for years !
That doesn ’ t mean it doesn ’ t make the owners rich .
Of course it does !
They buy into a company , profit themselves immensely by gutting it of every dime it makes and then use all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more , and then they sell to the dummies in the retail crowd who buy the momentum without a thought to the true value of a profitless , hopelessly indebted company during a time of global economic collapse !
So equity valuations are all hype , adrenaline and testosterone .
Their rise has nothing to do with the economy now or its future ; but one thing is certain ( at least historically ) all markets do catch back down to economic reality when the economy crashes for long enough , and this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 32-million lost jobs , clearly has a lot of crashing left in it .
Even the Fed , which tries to be as optimistic in every statement it makes as it can be , says it will take years to recover the lost jobs , even IF a vaccine is approved by January .
The damage is in ; and , if you can not see that , you are intentionally blind to the obvious .
So , what kind of crack are you smokin ’ ?

by David Haggith
One of my reasons I started this website years ago was to counter all the denial that I saw in the mainstream media about how long and deep the problems from the Great Financial Crisis would be and about how we were failing in every way to resolve the greed, decay and especially faulty thinking that would assure our next collapse would be even greater than the Great Recession.
Today, the same lame thinking still dominates, but not just in the media. It’s pervasive in the general public, too. Of course, it is particularly prevalent among high-flying stock investors, who actually think because stocks can float above it all, the world must be doing fine.
I found myself observing a … shall we call it … a balloon ride crowded with lightheaded investors floating over my little mountain this week? (I live in the mountains, you know?) Even as I tried to shout out a warning that their overcrowded gondola was starting to tear at the bottom and that the top of their balloon was on fire, they scoffed and sailed on past me on the trade winds out toward a vast and stormy looking reach of rocky peaks and deep canyons. They could have landed on the grassy uphill slope just before my little mountaintop and got off, but all they could seem to see was blue sky. It beckoned them.
I am still dismayed at how light heads can be at their level of floatiness. The thin air is obviously not conducive to clear thinking. While I believe it is vital to keep yelling warnings to those whose heads are in the clouds to try to wake the world out of its lunacy, sometimes breaking dreams that float on nothing but hope feels … hopeless.
Years of irrational thought about the economy and markets have kept us from making the many fundamental changes we need in order to get back to the solid ground of an actual capitalist economy. We cannot build structures that reach into the sky without respect to the laws of economics as well as a set of man-made rules that prevent behavior that is well known to be reckless and, so, destructive to others. I’m talking about behaviors that serve only a greedy few. We want, instead, to keep feeding dreams of clear and unrestrained flights of fancy to easy riches.
In economics, that means we’ve burned up regulations like Glass-Steagall and cast off such ballast as the illegality of stock buybacks in favor of sailing higher and faster with no restraints. We’ve untethered the high-flying market from solid economic ground. Worst of all, we’ve become so lightheaded about how economies and markets function, that we cannot see or understand the storm we are sailing into or heed warnings that might bring us safely down.
What follows is an example from my experience this week in the airy writings and oxygen-deprived comments of a small clutch of light-headed investors.
Inverted thinking about inverted yield curves
While I continue to come across many articles that exude lame thinking, I’m going to focus here on just one. I won’t name the person who wrote it or provide a reference to it because he’s small potatoes. If he were a big public media name like Krackpot Kudlow, I’d reference his article directly; but my point is not to lampoon the person but to show just how poor the prevalent arguments from stock investors and advisors continue to be.
The article I’m referring to asked whether a recession was coming based on recession indicators we talked about last year here on The Great Recession Blog. Only we talked about those indicators a year or more ago when they could actually indicate something. The author thought it good to say these economic wind socks, now relaxed, indicate we will not fly into a recession, promising calm, blue skies for market balloonists in the days ahead.
I had to wonder if the writer lived on mars and hadn’t noticed that a recession was already declared to have begun in the first quarter of 2020. I even had to look at the date of the article to see if I was reading a rerun of an old article. Nope. Current. Wow, I thought, as I looked at the tornado howling through the canyon they were about to fly over. Not a good time for balloon rides.
The windsock he pointed his passengers to was the yield-curve indicator to see if it is showing a recession to be likely. He noted that it was not yet inverted. He must have been asleep at the start of the storm I guess. Inversion already happened last year — twice.
I thought everyone who talks about this recession indicator knew the yield curve inversion is forward looking. This author even said it is forward looking, but apparently, he didn’t know it looks forward by more than six months and that it never keeps indicating recession once one has already started.
The indicator I’m writing about (and that he was writing about) is this one:
As you can see, each time the indicator dipped into inversion (a reading below zero) a recession ensued months after it dipped. In fact, as I often noted here last year, recessions do not start until after the yield curve reverts from its state of inversion back to normal — usually about three months after it reverts to normal. You can see that in the graph, too. (See: “BOND PRIMER: What is an inverted yield curve and what does it mean?” and “BOND PRIMER: Does Inverted Yield Curve Indicate Recession?“)
The yield curve inverted over a year ago, and it reverted many months ago, so it already predicted this recession more than a year ago. It’s not surprising, then, that the train arrived at the station right on time six months ago! Yet, this writer I was reading saw no recession currently marked on the graph (the gray zones) and sees the yield curve has reverted, so all must be fine ahead now that the indicator has stabilized. We must have already cleared out of the recession zone!
Really, the start of a recession just means this gauge’s messaging utility is long past. The yield curve was already 100% correct in having predicted a recession. It’s done its job! That train not only already arrived at the station, it’s now long on its way down the recessionary railroad. The yield-curve indicator has never been able to tell us anything about how long a recession would last or how deep it would go. As you can see, one of the slightest dips into inversion was followed by the largest, deepest recession on the graph.
The author even provided this chart from the Fed where you can plainly see the yield curve always inverts ahead of the recession by six months or more and, in most cases, returned to normal before the recession began. You’d think he could, at least, read the charts he presents; but that doesn’t happen when people are struggling to avoid seeing reality.
Let’s get our heads out of the clouds and look at bedrock reality!
This guy is nuts. We’ve already been declared in a recession, and he’s looking skyward at forward indicators to say they don’t show we are about to fly into one. On that basis, he argued the stock market might actually be right in indicating belief that the economy is going to get better and pricing accordingly because, “Look, the indicators shows there may be no recession ahead!” (As if the stock market knows anything!)
He also quoted the always lame Nobel economist Paul Krugman as backup to show hope waits ahead. Who on earth cares what economists are forecasting as a recession probability? No professional group has ever been worse at its own game.
Open your own eyes and think for yourself, Man! Economists didn’t see the recession of the dot-com bust coming and certainly didn’t see the Great Recession coming. So, who cares where they think we’ll be in six months? Look at the mud hole we’re already in. Wake up and smell the rotting cabbage!
The improvement in the unemployment rate that came with reopening the economy after the viral shutdown flattened much more than the viral infection rate or death rate over a month ago. It has only changed incrementally since then.
In fact, if you include all unemployed “gig” workers in the mix, who are now received special forms of unemployment benefits made just for this event, the unemployment rate has actually increased every week for more than a month and is over 32-million people. That’s 32-million and NOW RISING!
Here’s a reminder of the graph I published a couple of weeks ago in an article titled “Labor Dept. Trumps Its Own Numbers“:
This peaked and flatlining unemployment means there is no question the second half of this year gets worse because it’s already doing so, and a vaccine — if a vaccine even happens (given that scientists have never yet made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus) — isn’t going to repair the economic damage already accomplished and firmly holding.
A vaccine won’t restore businesses that already crashed and died. It may keep more businesses from going out, but there is a lot of loss that is already permanent, and the only reason we are not feeling the depth of pain is that we are receiving massive repeat doses of government anesthesia. That is what is allowing the market to float in delirium above it all.
The only things preventing the greatest storm of mortgage defaults and bankruptcies ever witnessed in US history right now — and this is straight fact, not opinion — are the equally massive government intervention programs that congress can no longer agree on — the $1,200 stimulus checks, the extended and enhanced unemployment benefits, the expanded unemployment benefits for gig workers, the payroll protection program, and the mortgage and rent forbearance act.
Why is that statement fact, not opinion? PRIOR TO the Coronacrisis, over 70% of Americans did not have enough money in savings to cover more than one month of living expenses. Fact. So, it is a certainty that, without those government emergency programs in place, 70% of the 32-million unemployed would have already defaulted on their loans and rents long enough to be in foreclosure or eviction! That’s 22 million people who would be in foreclosure or evicted from their rental homes!
And that was just the first wave! Even if we assume there will be no second wave of coronavirus infections (in spite of the fact that we are already seeing one), what would be the knock-on effects to other businesses from so many people driven out of their homes into destitution with no income and no savings???
All of this means there is absolutely zero chance that the second half of 2020 gets better just because unemployment has flatlined. The economy has already reopened for more than two months and has experienced as much benefit as it is going to from reopening. The benefits saving us from total despair are increasingly being battled in congress, and more than 50% of businesses on Yelp already reported they have closed “PERMANENTLY.” There is no reason to think the businesses that are not on yelp are somehow experiencing a different reality.
That is not going to change even with a vaccine. It has already happened, and vaccines are not retroactive! Yet, this high-flying balloonist of an author contended the stock market in its great wisdom may just be seeing the hope that lies ahead! I’d say the operative word there is “lies.”
On top of all these dead businesses with unemployment stalled at levels that may even exceed the Great Depression (except that clear statistics are not available from back then), we have the worst social unrest across the nation since the 60’s. That is clearly only going to get worse just before and especially after the election, which is less than three months away.
If Trump wins, the radicals will go insane! (They already are insane, but the arteries in their heads will burst from enflamed madness.) If Trump loses, Trump and his supporters will become enraged, claiming the election was totally rigged. Trump is already laying the ground for that claim with his constant complaints that mail-in-votes are ripe for fraud. (Maybe they are, in which case Trump voters will be right to be enraged; but, whether they are right or not, you know Trump is already laying the groundwork to make such a claim.) Democrats are laying the groundwork, too, by saying Trump is denying the post office essential funding so that it cannot deliver all ballots on time. So, no matter the outcome, this election bursts the nation into greater flames.
Congress is stymied over renewing the current efforts to renew all the emergency programs that are keeping the economy minimally alive on government life support. Trump saved only part of them by intervening via executive decree. The chances of yet a third round being approved in the final quarter go down drastically as Trump probably did this by decree to assure his re-election. After the election, he’s not as likely to fight his own party on this, and they will be even less likely to go for a third round. So, your experience of the situation is not going to get better anytime soon.
If these safety nets fail, then the bottom really falls out since unemployment is no longer improving.
And all of that is IF the virus doesn’t get worse! But, hey, maybe the market in its wisdom is flying toward real future earnings! After all, the big recession gauges don’t show any recession coming!
Who drives their car off the cliff then worries about the fuel gauge?
Afterward, a puzzled reader asks this writer who was floating on hopium, “Hasn’t a recession already started?”
You would think, “Duh!” (But apparently the question needed to be asked, given the dumb article.)
The author’s only lame answer is, “Yes … while, of course, the U.S. is in a recession, two of the three indicators mentioned in the article are forward-looking in nature.”
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Oh, my gosh! He even sees it and still doesn’t see it!
Of course the gauges he uses are forward looking, but he raised the question of whether we are even now in a recession by talking about the probability of going into a recession. That is like asking what the probability is of your car going off a cliff when you have already gone over the cliff and your wheels are dangling in the air. It’s a dumb question to raise because it is already 100% fact! (And cars with dangly wheels don’t make good hot-air balloons.)
Moreover, the fact that the author actually responded that the indicators are forward looking in nature shows he should have known his article was dumb. They are likely to be looking BETTER after you’ve already entered the recession than they did before because you are now trying to work your way OUT of the recession you are already in; but they have never been known to indicate when that end will come.
That’s like staring at your gas gauge after you ran out of gas to see if it is indicating how long it will before your tank refills. It can tell you the probability of running out of gas. It has no predictive power for telling you when the tank will refill.
You have to figure the latter out by looking around at where you car sits. Is it resting beside a gas pump while your hand is running your credit card through the pump. Then it’s pretty likely the tank will be full soon. Or is it sitting at the bottom of a cliff in a pile of exploded rubble?
As another example, talking about the “probability” of my stepping on a tack in my bare feet is uh, err, pointless when I’m already standing on one while running the probabilities that the event could really be happening. It is an exercise in clownishness. I don’t need to waste time running my probability calculations to know what my shrieking foot is already telling me!
It’s unbelievable that you have to explain this stuff!
Another person even responded with glee, “It’s over already. I’d say 9M jobs recovered in 3 months shows that clearly.”
Seriously? What a fool’s pipe dream! 9-million jobs recovered out of 32-million lost! Yeah, it’s over already! We’ve recovered! Glory hallelujah!
That is how thick the clouds of denial are. It’s disgusting that one even has to write to correct such vain thinking. I’m explaining to those lost in the new politically correct math that five minus two doesn’t equal a million, no matter how much you want it to!
First, the meager 9-million jobs we got back compared to the 32-million lost were the low-hanging fruit. They are the jobs that could and did come back when the edicts that shut down the economy were removed. They were the jobs I said back in march would pop back immediately when the economy was reopened for business. Can’t these people figure out what the remaining 23M jobs mean? They are the ones that did not come back when the edicts were removed!
That means they are not going to come back for a long time because the edicts that shut them down were removed two months ago. IF THEY COULD COME BACK, they would have. If they remain lost because some places went back into shutdown, what does going back into shutdown so quickly tell you about the months ahead?
For the most part, these jobs can’t ever come back because the businesses that provided them we’re destroyed. They represent the actual economic wreckage that the permanent closure of restaurants and retail outlets already caused because the coronavirus hit an economy that was already faulty and feeble. The economy simply blew apart when it got this corona kick in the chops.
As I wrote just a few days ago,
I went to our local mall yesterday for the first time since the economy was shut down. Now two full months after reopening, more than 50% of the shops remained closed. Of those, 80% were stripped bare. That calculates out to no hope that, at least, 40% of all the businesses in the mall are EVER coming back…. The huge rebound quit as soon as it began, and the numbers of new hires are now just matching with the numbers of new layoffs. That’s if you look at real numbers and not just the BLS hype about its numbers. (As I wrote about in the article just referenced.) More than half of the restaurants that have closed have not reopened. Most report on Yelp they are closed permanently. Those are services businesses that will never be rehiring their laid-off employees. So, real statistics add up with what my eyes tell me from a walkaround at the mall and what service businesses on Yelp are reporting. Wake up! The jobs are not coming back. “US in Longterm Economic Decline“
The proof of that is that overall unemployment is already rising again. You hear in the parrot press’s headlines about unemployment dropping because the mainstream media just regurgitates what the government feeds it, and the government is conveniently not talking about the larger number that includes all of those on unconventional unemployment benefits (the very ones congress is now arguing about).
Total unemployment is rising because the damage of closing is still playing through. Can you even imagine how much worse that damage will be if congress does not renew those novel unemployment programs that are keeping people from defaulting on their mortgages and rent and that are protecting those who are defaulting?
Thank goodness for the readers who do still see straight
A wiser person commenting on the lame article put these unemployment numbers in perspective:
The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in Friday’s report, but let’s put that in perspective. This rate is still higher than the peak of 10% that we hit in October 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. We lost 22.2 million jobs from February to April, and now we have recovered 9.3 million, which leaves 12.9 million unemployed. There are millions more that are gig workers or self-employed, who are also out of work and not counted on payrolls, which is why we had more than 31 million on government benefits before the stimulus ended. Additionally, the labor participation rate has fallen to 61.4%, which is the lowest level since 1976. This is because 5.8 million Americans who lost their jobs during the pandemic have presumably left the workforce. They are no longer looking for employment, which is not good news…. The lack of concern about our labor market crisis is unbelievable. The economy went over an income cliff two weeks ago, and Congress has its head in the sand. Perhaps that is because the stock market indicates that things are not that bad at all, unless you’re unemployed.
Indeed. Who cares about the rest?
So long as stocks are up, everything must be fine because the great wisdom of the market, according the writer I’m criticizing, knows there is hope in the near future. The Great Oz has spoken!
We’ve already fallen so the falling must be over. Right?
We’ve fallen through the bottom of the balloon’s gondola, but, hey, at least, we’re still in the air! That ground appears to be approaching quickly, but what does that matter, the balloon is now rising faster without our dead weight!
How could we possibly still have recession ahead when we’re only a mere 32-million jobs short of what we had the start of the year???
Whatever kind of crack they’re putting in their pipes where the writer of the article is from must be some pretty delusional stuff. People fall for it because we are all doped on government anesthesia with all those programs congress failed to re-approve, but which Trump partially reinstated.
People don’t feel the pain of hitting the ground yet, so they ignore the fact that they’re falling quickly. You cannot even imagine the economic catastrophe everyone would already be feeling without all that temporary shoring.
Hand me another pipe of whatever crack it is you have going over there, Man. I’m going to need a lot bigger hit to believe in your delusions.
If you want to talk probabilities, the unemployment level we are now experiencing and the knock-on effects without government support for those who were forced to stop working would likely be beyond anything the US has experienced in its history.
Millions more jobs would rapidly evaporate because the 32-million lost the ability to buy things. As millions of mortgages went into default, housing values would plummet from all the homes on the market. Rent values would fall through the floor because millions of evictions put millions of rental homes on the market at the same time. Those houses then have to try to rent out to people who cannot afford rent anyway. Thus, banks would go under. Landlords would be sunk. Construction would collapse.
Trump was smarter than his party and just ran out ahead of the party and quickly kicked some of the shoring back in place to avert immediate disaster. (But, hey, there is no recession anywhere in sight because the yield curve doesn’t say one is coming!)
Trump knew that, if people started actually feeling the pain of our self-inflicted catastrophe (not happening on this scale in Sweden, which didn’t shut down its economy and has far better viral recovery), he’d have no chance of getting re-elected, particularly if voters see their pain as resulting due to Republicans not realizing how bad the economic damage would be without this support.
In conclusion
When I wrote parts of the critique above in my own comments on the article’s page, another person replied with …
Equities have had a V recovery right? Are you saying today’s market levels don’t reflect a positive outlook for the economy to recover?
Wow! You can’t even beat the denial down with a stick! So, I replied as follows because years of market manipulation by Fed and government have turned the world into a rabbit hole where people no longer have a clue of how an economy and real markets actually work and where people are no longer even capable of grasping reality:
Equities are completely meaningless. I am definitely saying today’s market levels have nothing to do with a true outlook for the economy. The market has been delusional economically for a long time. It has totally disconnected from economic reality and is predictive of nothing but its own continuing delusions.
The market used to care about the economy, but stock markets like 2000 and housing markets like 2006 become completely irrational. On top of that, this market was built from the ground up for the past decade on nothing but corporate debt, financed by the Fed buying massive government debt that resulted from huge corporate tax cuts that were already breaking the nation because they were accompanied with huge spending increases before COVID-19 hit.
The market has from the commencement of the bull rally cared nothing about true business profits. Earnings were a complete joke the entire time! What are earnings? By that term, the market means “earnings per share.” And the “per share” part is the reason earnings have been going up for most companies for years. They were buying back their own shares at a rate never seen in history and broadly across almost the entire market. So, of course, earnings per share looked like they were improving because the denominator was constantly shrinking.
That’s as good as a baked number. At the same time, of course, it drives up stock prices because companies are using all of their own cash in many cases and all of the corporate credit in other cases to CREATE THEIR OWN MARKET FOR THEIR OWN SHARES! They drive up the price because they vote to buy the shares in sufficient enough numbers to force the price higher by creating their own demand!
Another term for this is “milking the company for all it’s worth” because you are not investing back in CAPEX (well established fact) but are burning cash and credit to make money off your stocks, not off your profits and are leaving the companies as empty shells because you don’t put enough back into them.
This market has been devoid of all business sense and all economic foresight for years!
That doesn’t mean it doesn’t make the owners rich. Of course it does! They buy into a company, profit themselves immensely by gutting it of every dime it makes and then use all of its available credit to line their pockets more, and then they sell to the dummies in the retail crowd who buy the momentum without a thought to the true value of a profitless, hopelessly indebted company during a time of global economic collapse!
So equity valuations are all hype, adrenaline and testosterone. Their rise has nothing to do with the economy now or its future; but one thing is certain (at least historically) all markets do catch back down to economic reality when the economy crashes for long enough, and this economy, which is now holding at 32-million lost jobs, clearly has a lot of crashing left in it.
Even the Fed, which tries to be as optimistic in every statement it makes as it can be, says it will take years to recover the lost jobs, even IF a vaccine is approved by January. The damage is in; and, if you cannot see that, you are intentionally blind to the obvious.
So, what kind of crack are you smokin’?


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Doug Noland: Take cover. It’s too late to turn back … Gerald Celente: This is a global economic deat

Doug Noland : Take cover .
It ’ s too late to turn back … Gerald Celente : This is @ @ @ @ @ … Craig Hemke : Fed not fighting inflation equals $ 18,000 gold … George Gammon @ @ @ @ @ for a Great Depression 2.0 ?
… Peter Schiff : Buffett buys Barrick Gold , @ @ @ @

BY JOHN RUBINO
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Doug Noland: Take cover. It’s too late to turn back … Gerald Celente: This is a global economic death spiral … Craig Hemke: Fed not fighting inflation equals $18,000 gold … George Gammon: Is the US headed for a Great Depression 2.0? … Peter Schiff: Buffett buys Barrick Gold, sells Goldman Sachs …


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--This Is Just The Beginning, Do You See What’s Happening, Go Back To The Beginning

The [ DS ] /MSM were brought down a path from the beginning , Mueller ’ s team pressed charges @ @ @ @ @ going to come back to haunt them .
The SM is now building , the @ @ @ @ @ It all begins with FISA , and now the [ DS ] /MSM players are @ @ @ @ @ [ knowingly ] knowing what they were doing .
The storm is coming , it @ @ @ @ @ .

The [DS]/MSM were brought down a path from the beginning, Mueller’s team pressed charges for lying and now its going to come back to haunt them. The SM is now building, the people are speaking out. It all begins with FISA, and now the [DS]/MSM players are going to caught up in [knowingly] knowing what they were doing. The storm is coming, it’s right behind POTUS.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Did Warren Buffett just bet against the US economy? Buffett dumping banks; buying Barrick Gold in a

Did Warren Buffett just bet against the US economy ?
Buffett dumping banks ; buying Barrick Gold in a sea-change @ @ @ @ @ critical of # gold as an investment , saying it “ has no utility ” @ @ @ @ @ metal ” is no match for “ American mettle.
” t.co/4hhOb4s63D pic.twitter.com/JiUOCNSWqI

Did Warren Buffett just bet against the US economy? Buffett dumping banks; buying Barrick Gold in a sea-change. He has long been critical of #gold as an investment, saying it “has no utility” and that the “magical metal” is no match for “American mettle.” t.co/4hhOb4s63D pic.twitter.com/JiUOCNSWqI
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Fed’s Direct Money Transfers Are Coming: Fed Collaborating With MIT On Hypothetical Digital Currency

Last week , we reported on a new Fed policy in the works that would abandon stimulus checks and instead utilize direct deposits in order to more efficiently get Americans the money they need to stave off financial insecurity .
This helicopter money is a final attempt to dig the United States out of the deep economic collapse they have fallen into this year by bringing about sharp and widespread inflation .
The tool–known as recession insurance bonds–would take advantage of newer digital payment technologies that allow the government to make instant wire transfers to the tens of millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed has argued that this switch will limit the inefficiencies that plagued the previous system , which saw citizens in need waiting weeks or even months for their stimulus payments to arrive .
In the gap , countless people slipped deeper into food insecurity , poverty , and even homelessness .
As a refresher , here ’ s how these recession insurance bonds would work .
The Fed would set aside a cut of the country ’ s GDP to put into consumers ’ pockets , splitting the sum equally among households in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea of helicopter money–cash deposits sent straight from the Federal Reserve to Americans ’ individual accounts–would have been almost unthinkable even just last year , the fact that it has moved into the spotlight as a policy proposal means that it will likely be implemented sooner rather than later .
As has happened time and time again throughout the pandemic , we must get used to ludicrous ideas entering the mainstream .
The only thing holding back the Fed ’ s plan now is the existence of a digital currency that could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In this video , we will discuss this latest disastrous move in Fed policy , as well as what it could mean for the future of our country ’ s financial systems .
Earlier this week , Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spoke not so subtly about the coming system reset .
She said that the Fed was “ studying the opportunities and challenges presented by central bank digital currencies , ” but we all know what that really means .
Brainard went on to discuss a new project in collaboration with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( MIT ) .
Together with the wider Federal Reserve , these institutions are embarking on an effort that will stretch over multiple years and ultimately hope to institute a working digital currency that could be utilized by the central bank .
The most telling line of Brainard ’ s recent speech , which was innocuously titled “ An Update on Digital Currencies , ” was sneakily tucked away in the middle .
“ It is important to understand how the existing provisions of the Federal Reserve Act with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Central Bank Digital Currency ( CBDC ) and whether a CBDC would have legal tender status , depending on the design , ” she said .
Assigning a Central Bank Digital Currency legal tender status marks a dramatic overhaul of current policy .
Surely there would have to be a significant stimulus to prompt such a move .
So what exactly would it take for the Fed to follow through on this policy process ?
Another crisis , of course .
And with new crises popping up nearly everyday in the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time at all for the Fed to find a justification for this system reset .
Already , other countries across the world have moved in the direction of digital currencies .
Sweden is on the forefront of removing cash from their society and China has been testing digital currencies for years .
The Bank of England has already suggested a shift to digital currency .
However , there is plenty of cause for concern that comes with this massive overhaul .
Fears over privacy top the list .
In order for the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to distribute aid to first , they would need to have continual access to a database that details intimate aspects of Americans ’ personal lives .
Furthermore , the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency would require some sort of public-private partnership with digital payment providers .
Many of those competitors could be inspired to enter the market because it would allow them to acquire large quantities of individuals ’ data .
Another concern is the wave of inflation unleashed by this new policy , a wave that could very easily spiral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the US dollar down to nearly nothing… .
All in all , the US is continuing on its dangerous downward slide into economic ruin , and as we discussed , much of the country ’ s fate now rests on factors outside of domestic control , such as China ’ s credit impulse .
It ’ s a dark world we live in , and the outlook is looking bleaker every week .

Last week, we reported on a new Fed policy in the works that would abandon stimulus checks and instead utilize direct deposits in order to more efficiently get Americans the money they need to stave off financial insecurity. This helicopter money is a final attempt to dig the United States out of the deep economic collapse they have fallen into this year by bringing about sharp and widespread inflation.
The tool–known as recession insurance bonds–would take advantage of newer digital payment technologies that allow the government to make instant wire transfers to the tens of millions of Americans who require emergency assistance. The Fed has argued that this switch will limit the inefficiencies that plagued the previous system, which saw citizens in need waiting weeks or even months for their stimulus payments to arrive. In the gap, countless people slipped deeper into food insecurity, poverty, and even homelessness.
As a refresher, here’s how these recession insurance bonds would work. The Fed would set aside a cut of the country’s GDP to put into consumers’ pockets, splitting the sum equally among households in the event of a recession. While the idea of helicopter money–cash deposits sent straight from the Federal Reserve to Americans’ individual accounts–would have been almost unthinkable even just last year, the fact that it has moved into the spotlight as a policy proposal means that it will likely be implemented sooner rather than later. As has happened time and time again throughout the pandemic, we must get used to ludicrous ideas entering the mainstream. The only thing holding back the Fed’s plan now is the existence of a digital currency that could be used by the central bank.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In this video, we will discuss this latest disastrous move in Fed policy, as well as what it could mean for the future of our country’s financial systems. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spoke not so subtly about the coming system reset. She said that the Fed was “studying the opportunities and challenges presented by central bank digital currencies,” but we all know what that really means.
Brainard went on to discuss a new project in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Together with the wider Federal Reserve, these institutions are embarking on an effort that will stretch over multiple years and ultimately hope to institute a working digital currency that could be utilized by the central bank. The most telling line of Brainard’s recent speech, which was innocuously titled “An Update on Digital Currencies,” was sneakily tucked away in the middle. “It is important to understand how the existing provisions of the Federal Reserve Act with regard to currency issuance apply to a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and whether a CBDC would have legal tender status, depending on the design,” she said.
Assigning a Central Bank Digital Currency legal tender status marks a dramatic overhaul of current policy. Surely there would have to be a significant stimulus to prompt such a move. So what exactly would it take for the Fed to follow through on this policy process? Another crisis, of course. And with new crises popping up nearly everyday in the United States, it wouldn’t take any time at all for the Fed to find a justification for this system reset.
Already, other countries across the world have moved in the direction of digital currencies. Sweden is on the forefront of removing cash from their society and China has been testing digital currencies for years. The Bank of England has already suggested a shift to digital currency.
However, there is plenty of cause for concern that comes with this massive overhaul. Fears over privacy top the list. In order for the Fed to determine which sections of the population to distribute aid to first, they would need to have continual access to a database that details intimate aspects of Americans’ personal lives.
Furthermore, the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency would require some sort of public-private partnership with digital payment providers. Many of those competitors could be inspired to enter the market because it would allow them to acquire large quantities of individuals’ data. Another concern is the wave of inflation unleashed by this new policy, a wave that could very easily spiral out of control and drive the value of the US dollar down to nearly nothing….
All in all, the US is continuing on its dangerous downward slide into economic ruin, and as we discussed, much of the country’s fate now rests on factors outside of domestic control, such as China’s credit impulse. It’s a dark world we live in, and the outlook is looking bleaker every week.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--New Zealand: Posting online against government policies will put thought police at the front of your

New Zealand : Posting online against government policies will put thought police at the front of your door pic.twitter.com/ojhCL9sjMX

New Zealand: Posting online against government policies will put thought police at the front of your door pic.twitter.com/ojhCL9sjMX
— TubeQube ⭐⭐⭐ (@TubeQube) August 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Obama ‘skeptical’ of Biden run: ‘Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f–k things up’

Barack Obama publicly endorsed presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden — but has privately expressed grave concerns about his former veep @ @ @ @ @ run , a report said .
“ Don ’ t underestimate Joe ’ s ability @ @ @ @ @ ” the former president told an unnamed Democrat , who told Politico about the conversation— @ @ @ @ @ history between the two .
Former Obama Administration officials painted the relationship as warm and @ @ @ @ @ with tension over the gap between Biden ’ s old-school backslapping and Obama ’ s @ @ @ @ @ reported .
“ You could certainly see technocratic eye-rolling at times , ” according to @ @ @ @ @ Jen Psaki , who recalled other aides chortling at Biden ’ s frequent gaffes and @ @ @ @

Barack Obama publicly endorsed presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden — but has privately expressed grave concerns about his former veep’s 2020 White House run, a report said.
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f–k things up,” the former president told an unnamed Democrat, who told Politico about the conversation— reportedly reflective of a strained history between the two.
Former Obama Administration officials painted the relationship as warm and genuinely close — but fraught with tension over the gap between Biden’s old-school backslapping and Obama’s hyper-prepared wonkiness, the outlet reported.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“You could certainly see technocratic eye-rolling at times,” according to former White House communications director Jen Psaki, who recalled other aides chortling at Biden’s frequent gaffes and lack of discipline.
nypost.com/2020/08/15/barack-obama-reportedly-undercuts-bidens-2020-white-house-run/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Powell better step up… Credit lines for small firms are getting drastically more expensive. A massiv

Credit lines for small firms are getting drastically more expensive .
Credit conditions are still tightening under the hood .
@

Powell better step up…
Credit lines for small firms are getting drastically more expensive.
A massive divergence from junk bond yields.
Credit conditions are still tightening under the hood. pic.twitter.com/OlXB6xW1oM
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-16--Why Bernie Sanders Wants To Chug Elon Musk’s Beer

Bernie Sanders wants to steal Elon Musk ’ s beer – but why ?
Join Mike Maloney as he delves @ @ @ @ @ by Sanders , the knock on effects may surprise you .

Bernie Sanders wants to steal Elon Musk’s beer – but why? Join Mike Maloney as he delves into a recent bill proposed by Sanders, the knock on effects may surprise you.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--SGT REPORT — The Pandemic Pattern: How The Illusion Is Built

This article is based on my study and investigation of so-called epidemics over the past 30 years .
In the case of COVID-19 , I ’ ve written at least one piece covering , in detail , each main element of the illusion .
Here , I ’ m laying out the pattern .
It is the same for each fake epidemic .
ONE : Through many meetings , exercises , planning sessions , a structure is welded in place to promote and launch the IDEA of an epidemic .
World Health Organization , CDC , influential public health officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ etc .
TWO : There is a purported incident .
An outbreak .
The most obvious cause is intentionally overlooked .
For example , horrendous air pollution , or the grotesque feces and urine pollution on a giant commercial pig factory-farm .
Instead , the world is told a new virus has been found .
Local researchers , if any , are augmented by researchers from CDC , WHO .
THREE : There is no air-tight chain of evidence explaining exactly how the purported new virus was discovered .
From details released , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convincing methods , no proper unified study of MANY supposed epidemic patients .
FOUR : But WHO/CDC tells the world this is an epidemic in the making , caused by the new virus .
The promotion and propaganda/media apparatus moves into high gear .
Ominous pronouncements .
FIVE : Diagnostic tests for the unproven new virus are rolled out .
They spit out false “ proof ” of “ infection ” like coins from a jackpot slot machine .
These false-positives are an inherent feature of the tests .
SIX : Thus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which are based on the tests , are rendered meaningless .
And…they were already meaningless , because the supposed new virus “ being tested for ” was never properly discovered in the first place .

August 16, 2020
by Jon Rappoport
This article is based on my study and investigation of so-called epidemics over the past 30 years.
In the case of COVID-19, I’ve written at least one piece covering, in detail, each main element of the illusion. Here, I’m laying out the pattern. It is the same for each fake epidemic.
ONE: Through many meetings, exercises, planning sessions, a structure is welded in place to promote and launch the IDEA of an epidemic. World Health Organization, CDC, influential public health officials attached to governments around the world, etc.
TWO: There is a purported incident. An outbreak. The most obvious cause is intentionally overlooked. For example, horrendous air pollution, or the grotesque feces and urine pollution on a giant commercial pig factory-farm. Instead, the world is told a new virus has been found. Local researchers, if any, are augmented by researchers from CDC, WHO.
THREE: There is no air-tight chain of evidence explaining exactly how the purported new virus was discovered. From details released, there is NO proof of discovery by convincing methods, no proper unified study of MANY supposed epidemic patients.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
FOUR: But WHO/CDC tells the world this is an epidemic in the making, caused by the new virus. The promotion and propaganda/media apparatus moves into high gear. Ominous pronouncements.
FIVE: Diagnostic tests for the unproven new virus are rolled out. They spit out false “proof” of “infection” like coins from a jackpot slot machine. These false-positives are an inherent feature of the tests.
SIX: Thus, all case numbers and death numbers, which are based on the tests, are rendered meaningless. And…they were already meaningless, because the supposed new virus “being tested for” was never properly discovered in the first place.
CONTINUED AT:
www.sgtreport.com/2020/08/the-pandemic-pattern-how-the-illusion-is-built/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--Investors Are Clinging to an Outdated Strategy — At the Worst Possible Time

“ While I was at CalPERS , concerns arose in 2016 about the effectiveness of standard portfolio diversification as prescribed @ @ @ @ @ We began to recognize that management of portfolio risk and equity tail risk , in @ @ @ @ @ driver of long-term compound returns .
Subsequently , we began to explore alternatives to standard @ @ @ @ @ .
At present , the need to rethink basic portfolio construction and risk mitigation is @ @ @ @ @ hope in Modern Monetary Theory to support financial markets is possibly misplaced…… ” A good @ @ @ @ @ no longer be used for what they were intended for historically in portfolio construction .

www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1msb3d2n4cy6h/Investors-Are-Clinging-to-an-Outdated-Strategy-At-the-Worst-Possible-Time?s=09
“While I was at CalPERS, concerns arose in 2016 about the effectiveness of standard portfolio diversification as prescribed by Modern Portfolio Theory. We began to recognize that management of portfolio risk and equity tail risk, in particular, was the key driver of long-term compound returns. Subsequently, we began to explore alternatives to standard diversification, including tail-risk hedging. At present, the need to rethink basic portfolio construction and risk mitigation is even greater — as rising hope in Modern Monetary Theory to support financial markets is possibly misplaced……”
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A good read about why bonds might no longer be used for what they were intended for historically in portfolio construction.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--Ray Dalio’s hedge fund invests $400M in gold

The two trusts that received Bridgewater ’ s investments are exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ) .
More gold is held @ @ @ @ @ than by central banks .
Dalio has been a vocal proponent of investing in gold @ @ @ @ @ during the World Economic Forum in Davos , Switzerland , that “ cash is trash @ @ @ @ @ of gold is a diversifier ” for investors .

westfaironline.com/127514/ray-dalios-hedge-fund-invests-400m-in-gold/
The two trusts that received Bridgewater’s investments are exchange-traded funds (ETFs). More gold is held around the world by ETFs than by central banks. Dalio has been a vocal proponent of investing in gold, telling CNBC in January during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that “cash is trash” and “a bit of gold is a diversifier” for investors.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--A Mass Exodus Away From Big Cities On Both Coasts

In all of U.S. history , we have never seen anything like “ the mass exodus of 2020 ” .
Hundreds of thousands of people are leaving the major cities on both coasts in search of a better life .
Homelessness , crime and drug use were already on the rise in many of our large cities prior to 2020 , but many big city residents were willing to put up with a certain amount of chaos in order to maintain their lifestyles .
However , the COVID-19 pandemic and months of civil unrest have finally pushed a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on both coasts are doing a booming business as wealthy and middle class families flee at a blistering pace , and most of those families do not plan to ever return .
Los Angeles is a perfect example of what I am talking about .
Once upon a time it attracted wealthy and famous people from all over the globe , but in 2020 it is “ a city on the brink “ … Almost half of the entire homeless population of the entire country now lives in the state of California , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ addicted to drugs .
Needless to say , this has created a nightmarish environment… Could you imagine trying to raise a family in such a community ?
And the worse economic conditions become , the worse the problem gets .
Crime is skyrocketing in L.A. , and some residents have been shocked to discover strangers actually “ defecating in their front gardens ” … Of course Los Angeles is definitely not the only major city dealing with such issues .
On a per capita basis , drug use is even worse in San @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there is “ a mass exodus of people looking to get out of San Francisco real estate ” … In the end , a lot of people may have to take losses on their homes , but it will be worth it simply to get out of California .
And the state legislature has apparently decided that the mass exodus is not happening fast enough , because a bill is being introduced that would impose a new “ wealth tax ” on the very wealthy… In the old days , a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Portland or Seattle , but those two cities are not exactly desirable options at this point .
The civil unrest in Seattle never seems to end , and Acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf recently said that there had been “ twelve official riots ” in the first ten days after federal law enforcement officials left Portland .
Sadly , the east coast has experienced plenty of chaos as well , and the mass exodus out of New York City has been particularly dramatic .
In a previous article , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York Times had reported that 420,000 New Yorkers had moved out of the city between March 1st and May 1st .
But the exodus certainly didn ’ t end there .
According to the local Fox affiliate , between May and July there was “ a 95 percent year over year increase in interest in moving out of Manhattan ” … And it isn ’ t just residents that are leaving .
Business after business is shutting down , and that includes some of the most iconic retailers in the city… Earlier today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had taken of all the boarded up shops along 5th Avenue .
If you have not seen that video yet , you can watch it right here .
I couldn ’ t believe what I was seeing .
At one time 5th Avenue was a playground for the elite of the world , but now it essentially looks “ like a demilitarized zone ” … In about six months , most of the progress that New York City has made since the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s has completely disappeared .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and crime rates are shooting into the stratosphere .
If you can believe it , the number of shootings in July was 177 percent higher than for the same month last year .
If the deplorable conditions in our major cities were just going to be temporary , I don ’ t believe that we would be seeing such a mass exodus .
But at this point it should be clear to all of us that things aren ’ t going to turn around any time soon , and many people are convinced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get even worse .
Our major cities are degenerating right in front of our eyes , and there doesn ’ t seem to be any hope of reversing this process now that it has started .
In life , the decisions that we make always have consequences , and the consequences for the decisions that we have made as a nation as a whole will be very bitter indeed .

by Michael Snyder
In all of U.S. history, we have never seen anything like “the mass exodus of 2020”. Hundreds of thousands of people are leaving the major cities on both coasts in search of a better life. Homelessness, crime and drug use were already on the rise in many of our large cities prior to 2020, but many big city residents were willing to put up with a certain amount of chaos in order to maintain their lifestyles. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and months of civil unrest have finally pushed a lot of people over the edge. Moving companies on both coasts are doing a booming business as wealthy and middle class families flee at a blistering pace, and most of those families do not plan to ever return.
Los Angeles is a perfect example of what I am talking about. Once upon a time it attracted wealthy and famous people from all over the globe, but in 2020 it is “a city on the brink“…
Today, Los Angeles is a city on the brink. ‘For Sale’ signs are seemingly dotted on every suburban street as the middle classes, particularly those with families, flee for the safer suburbs, with many choosing to leave LA altogether. British-born Danny O’Brien runs Watford Moving & Storage. ‘There is a mass exodus from Hollywood,’ he says.
Almost half of the entire homeless population of the entire country now lives in the state of California, and a large proportion of them are addicted to drugs. Needless to say, this has created a nightmarish environment…
Junkies and the homeless, many of whom are clearly mentally ill, walk the palm-lined streets like zombies – all just three blocks from multi-million-dollar homes overlooking the Pacific. Stolen bicycles are piled high on pavements littered with broken syringes.
Could you imagine trying to raise a family in such a community?
I certainly couldn’t.
And the worse economic conditions become, the worse the problem gets. Crime is skyrocketing in L.A., and some residents have been shocked to discover strangers actually “defecating in their front gardens”…
TV bulletins are filled with horror stories from across the city; of women being attacked during their morning jog or residents returning home to find strangers defecating in their front gardens.
Of course Los Angeles is definitely not the only major city dealing with such issues.
On a per capita basis, drug use is even worse in San Francisco, and it is being reported that there is “a mass exodus of people looking to get out of San Francisco real estate”…
According to online real estate company Zillow, there is a mass exodus of people looking to get out of San Francisco real estate – as the housing market is on fire in the Bay Area suburbs, all the way to Lake Tahoe. According to the company’s “2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report,” home prices in the city have fallen 4.9% year-over-year, while inventory has jumped 96% during the same period, as a flood of new listings hit the market.
In the end, a lot of people may have to take losses on their homes, but it will be worth it simply to get out of California.
And the state legislature has apparently decided that the mass exodus is not happening fast enough, because a bill is being introduced that would impose a new “wealth tax” on the very wealthy…
Fast forward to today when the ultra-liberal state of California is now ready to take this “socialist” idea from concept to the implementation phase, with the SF Chronicle reporting that a group of CA state lawmakers on Thursday proposed a first-in-the-nation state wealth tax that would hit about 30,400 California residents and raise an estimated $7.5 billion for the general fund. The proposed tax rate would be 0.4% of net worth (most likely ended up far higher), excluding directly held real estate, that exceeds $30 million for single and joint filers and $15 million for married filing separately.
In the old days, a lot of Californians would just head north to Portland or Seattle, but those two cities are not exactly desirable options at this point.
The civil unrest in Seattle never seems to end, and Acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf recently said that there had been “twelve official riots” in the first ten days after federal law enforcement officials left Portland.
Sadly, the east coast has experienced plenty of chaos as well, and the mass exodus out of New York City has been particularly dramatic.
In a previous article, I discussed the fact that the the New York Times had reported that 420,000 New Yorkers had moved out of the city between March 1st and May 1st.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But the exodus certainly didn’t end there.
According to the local Fox affiliate, between May and July there was “a 95 percent year over year increase in interest in moving out of Manhattan”…
According to the most recent data from United Van Lines, between May and July, there was a 95 percent year over year increase in interest in moving out of Manhattan. That compares with a 19 percent increase in moving interest in the U.S., overall. The top destinations for people who moved out of New York City between March and August were Florida and California – which together comprised 28 percent of relocations. Texas and North Carolina made up 16 percent of moves.
And it isn’t just residents that are leaving.
Business after business is shutting down, and that includes some of the most iconic retailers in the city…
J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus, the anchor tenants at two of the largest malls in Manhattan, recently filed for bankruptcy and announced that they would shutter those locations. The Subway restaurant chain has already closed dozens of locations in New York City in recent months, Le Pain Quotidien has permanently closed several of its 27 stores in the city and plans to leave others closed until more people return to the streets, an executive at the chain’s parent, Aurify Brands, told the Times.
Earlier today, I watched a video that someone had taken of all the boarded up shops along 5th Avenue.
If you have not seen that video yet, you can watch it right here.
I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. At one time 5th Avenue was a playground for the elite of the world, but now it essentially looks “like a demilitarized zone”…
De Blasio’s New York has finally hit an all-time low: the once bustling city is now on the verge of looking like a demilitarized zone. Between the pandemic and the riots in the city, iconic 5th Avenue now looks more like a dystopian nightmare in a recently shot video posted to Twitter. The video follows a car driving down a deserted 5th Avenue, with almost all of the area’s high end stores boarded up and shut down. There are few people seen on what is usually a busy street. “Look at everything. Everything’s boarded up. Even the hotel. Boarded up,” the video’s narrator, who is obviously fed up with how the city looks, says.
In about six months, most of the progress that New York City has made since the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s has completely disappeared.
Homelessness and poverty are both exploding, and crime rates are shooting into the stratosphere.
If you can believe it, the number of shootings in July was 177 percent higher than for the same month last year.
If the deplorable conditions in our major cities were just going to be temporary, I don’t believe that we would be seeing such a mass exodus.
But at this point it should be clear to all of us that things aren’t going to turn around any time soon, and many people are convinced that things are just going to continue to get even worse.
Our major cities are degenerating right in front of our eyes, and there doesn’t seem to be any hope of reversing this process now that it has started.
In life, the decisions that we make always have consequences, and the consequences for the decisions that we have made as a nation as a whole will be very bitter indeed.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--Is The Stunning Peace Deal Between Israel And The UAE A Prelude To Formally Dividing The Land Of Isr

Is The Stunning Peace Deal Between Israel And The UAE A Prelude To Formally Dividing The Land Of Israel?

Last week ’ s surprise announcement of a peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates caught just about everyone by surprise .
I hadn ’ t heard anything about a potential deal in the works , and the mainstream media in the western world was completely blindsided by the deal .
But this has become Israel ’ s pattern in recent decades .
The Oslo Accords , Israel ’ s peace deal with Jordan and other agreements were negotiated under a cloak of total secrecy because officials didn ’ t want public sentiment to potentially destroy negotiations .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ peace deals ” in the works right now that we don ’ t know anything about .
President Trump is touting this as a major diplomatic victory , and he is hoping that it will sway some votes in November .
At this juncture , Trump is trailing badly in most polls and he needs another miracle like we witnessed in 2016 .
But it was really Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that was the driving force behind this deal .
He has been seeking to build relations with the UAE for many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the culmination of those efforts .
In order to get this deal , however , Netanyahu had to agree not to annex any land in the West Bank… This is a very odd development , because to many people it seemed like Netanyahu was dead set on annexing portions of Judea and Samaria .
In fact , he specifically promised to do so during the last election .
Could it be possible that all of that rhetoric was just a negotiating ploy ?
If Israel had really gone ahead and annexed those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international efforts to create a Palestinian state .
But now that annexation is completely dead , the potential for a “ peace deal ” that would create a Palestinian state is very much alive .
According to the New York Times , the relationship between Israel and the UAE “ had been building quietly for years ” , and according to a British news source this peace agreement will also open a door for “ deals on direct flights , security , telecommunications , energy , tourism and healthcare ” … Ultimately , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we should all want , but at what cost has it been achieved ?
It appears that West Bank annexation will never happen now , and we are being told that Netanyahu “ traded it away ” for a goal that was even more important to him… This may help Netanyahu win some moderate votes in the next election , but there are many conservatives in Israel that feel like they have been played and are not happy with Netanyahu right now at all .
Of course Netanyahu is not going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reuters , Bahrain and Oman could also soon normalize relations with Israel… In fact , Netanyahu has actually publicly admitted that he has been speaking with the leaders of Oman and “ other countries ” in the region… In the end , many believe that all of this diplomacy is all about Iran .
In recent years , Netanyahu has relentlessly been attempting to unite as much of the Middle East as possible against Iran .
The Israelis believe that a conflict with Iran is probably inevitable , and so they would like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they can .
Of course many Sunni governments in the region have long been hostile toward the radical Shiite regime in Tehran .
In particular , the Saudis would love to see the Iranian “ problem ” go away , and so they have a strategic interest in working with Israel toward that goal .
As Israel and the various Sunni governments across the Middle East become increasingly cozy , could this create an environment that will eventually lead to an agreement to create a Palestinian state ?
I think that this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this point .
Needless to say , most of the rest of the world would greatly rejoice if a peace agreement could be reached that would finally create a Palestinian state , but formally dividing the land of Israel would also set the stage for many of the things that I warn about in my new book .
Many had assumed that a conservative like Netanyahu would never be willing to give up land for an agreement that would guarantee “ lasting peace ” , but the agreement that he just reached with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Netanyahu is willing to permanently sacrifice dreams of annexing portions of Judea and Samaria for a peace agreement with the UAE , what would he be willing to do for a comprehensive peace agreement with all of the Sunni governments in the region ?
Peace can be a very seductive mistress , and I have a feeling that we are about to see things happen in the Middle East that many thought would never be possible .

by Michael Snyder
Last week’s surprise announcement of a peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates caught just about everyone by surprise. I hadn’t heard anything about a potential deal in the works, and the mainstream media in the western world was completely blindsided by the deal. But this has become Israel’s pattern in recent decades. The Oslo Accords, Israel’s peace deal with Jordan and other agreements were negotiated under a cloak of total secrecy because officials didn’t want public sentiment to potentially destroy negotiations. And there could potentially be other “peace deals” in the works right now that we don’t know anything about.
President Trump is touting this as a major diplomatic victory, and he is hoping that it will sway some votes in November. At this juncture, Trump is trailing badly in most polls and he needs another miracle like we witnessed in 2016.
But it was really Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that was the driving force behind this deal. He has been seeking to build relations with the UAE for many, many years, and this deal is the culmination of those efforts.
In order to get this deal, however, Netanyahu had to agree not to annex any land in the West Bank…
The United Arab Emirates has normalised relations with Israel in a historic US-brokered deal that “suspends” Israeli annexation of occupied land sought by the Palestinians for their future state. The surprise agreement, initially announced by the US president, Donald Trump, makes the UAE the first Gulf country and only the third Arab nation in the world to have active diplomatic ties with Israel, joining Egypt and Jordan.
This is a very odd development, because to many people it seemed like Netanyahu was dead set on annexing portions of Judea and Samaria.
In fact, he specifically promised to do so during the last election.
Could it be possible that all of that rhetoric was just a negotiating ploy?
If Israel had really gone ahead and annexed those lands, it would have killed any international efforts to create a Palestinian state.
But now that annexation is completely dead, the potential for a “peace deal” that would create a Palestinian state is very much alive.
According to the New York Times, the relationship between Israel and the UAE “had been building quietly for years”, and according to a British news source this peace agreement will also open a door for “deals on direct flights, security, telecommunications, energy, tourism and healthcare”…
A joint statement from the US, the UAE and Israel said delegations will meet in the coming weeks to sign deals on direct flights, security, telecommunications, energy, tourism and healthcare. They are expected soon to exchange ambassadors and embassies and a signing ceremony is due to be held at the White House.
Ultimately, peace in the Middle East is something that we should all want, but at what cost has it been achieved?
It appears that West Bank annexation will never happen now, and we are being told that Netanyahu “traded it away” for a goal that was even more important to him…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In an ironic twist, that plan became the catalyst that finally gave Mr. Netanyahu the opening he had long sought. With pressure building for him to drop the annexation plan, he traded it away for something he wanted even more.
This may help Netanyahu win some moderate votes in the next election, but there are many conservatives in Israel that feel like they have been played and are not happy with Netanyahu right now at all.
Of course Netanyahu is not going to stop with the UAE. According to Reuters, Bahrain and Oman could also soon normalize relations with Israel…
Bahrain and Oman could be the next Gulf countries to follow the United Arab Emirates in formalising ties with Israel, Israel’s intelligence minister said on Sunday.
In fact, Netanyahu has actually publicly admitted that he has been speaking with the leaders of Oman and “other countries” in the region…
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that he has been speaking with leaders from Arab countries in addition to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) following the American-mediated peace deal announced last week between the two countries. He stated that he spoke with political leaders in Oman and “other countries,” and that the key to such discussions is discretion.
In the end, many believe that all of this diplomacy is all about Iran.
In recent years, Netanyahu has relentlessly been attempting to unite as much of the Middle East as possible against Iran. The Israelis believe that a conflict with Iran is probably inevitable, and so they would like to isolate the Iranians as much as they can.
Of course many Sunni governments in the region have long been hostile toward the radical Shiite regime in Tehran. In particular, the Saudis would love to see the Iranian “problem” go away, and so they have a strategic interest in working with Israel toward that goal.
As Israel and the various Sunni governments across the Middle East become increasingly cozy, could this create an environment that will eventually lead to an agreement to create a Palestinian state?
I think that this is a very important question to ask at this point.
Needless to say, most of the rest of the world would greatly rejoice if a peace agreement could be reached that would finally create a Palestinian state, but formally dividing the land of Israel would also set the stage for many of the things that I warn about in my new book.
Many had assumed that a conservative like Netanyahu would never be willing to give up land for an agreement that would guarantee “lasting peace”, but the agreement that he just reached with the UAE may suggest otherwise.
If Netanyahu is willing to permanently sacrifice dreams of annexing portions of Judea and Samaria for a peace agreement with the UAE, what would he be willing to do for a comprehensive peace agreement with all of the Sunni governments in the region?
Peace can be a very seductive mistress, and I have a feeling that we are about to see things happen in the Middle East that many thought would never be possible.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--Millie Weaver Arrest Update

Millie Weaver Arrest Update

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Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in @ @ @ @ @ own due diligence .
The reader is responsible for discerning the validity , factuality or @ @ @ @ @ , be it fictional or based on real events .

by axolotl_peyotl
source
Does anyone with legal expertise want to comment on the nature and frequency of a so-called “secret indictment”?
How common is it that both parents of young children can be arrested on a secret indictment and held without bond?
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Aren’t you supposed to be told what you’ve been arrested for? The arresting officer told Millie she’d learn the charges at the station. She allegedly never did.
There are rumors that this is regarding an upcoming custody battle for the children…why arrest both parents under a secret indictment if that’s the case? Surely that’s not how domestic violence is normally prosecuted? Why arrest them for “burglary” too if this is a custody issue?
So many questions!!


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-17--BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi calls the house back into session to investigate USPS postmaster

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democratic leaders will summon the House back in session this coming week to confront President @ @ @ @ @ to undermine the U.S .
Postal Service , she announced Sunday night .
The House @ @ @ @ @ early as Saturday , Aug. 22 , on a proposal to block the Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ the Postal Service .
This is weeks earlier than Pelosi and the House Democratic leaders @ @ @ @ @ to Washington .
But the revised House schedule comes amid a national uproar over a @ @ @ @ @ ahead of a national election that will see an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots .
@ @ @ @ @ that Trump is using the coronavirus pandemic to force service cutbacks at USPS ahead of @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s appointee to lead the Postal Service , Louis DeJoy , has overseen @ @ @ @ @ agency that has led to backlogs and service interruptions — an immense concern as millions @ @ @ @ @ and return their ballots through the mail .

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democratic leaders will summon the House back in session this coming week to confront President Donald Trump’s attempts to undermine the U.S. Postal Service, she announced Sunday night.
The House is expected to vote as early as Saturday, Aug. 22, on a proposal to block the Trump administration’s plan for overhauling the Postal Service. This is weeks earlier than Pelosi and the House Democratic leaders had originally planned to return to Washington. But the revised House schedule comes amid a national uproar over a crisis within the Postal Service ahead of a national election that will see an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots.
Democrats have grown increasingly alarmed that Trump is using the coronavirus pandemic to force service cutbacks at USPS ahead of Nov. 3. Democrats allege Trump’s appointee to lead the Postal Service, Louis DeJoy, has overseen substantial operational changes to the agency that has led to backlogs and service interruptions — an immense concern as millions of Americans prepare to receive and return their ballots through the mail.