investmentwatchblog--2020-06-09--Technically Speaking: It’s Time To Take On Defensive Positioning

With investors throwing investing caution to the wind , technically speaking , it ’ s time to take on defensive positioning .
Such was the warning we discussed in this past weekend ’ s newsletter .
To wit : “ Regardless , the markets are bullish biased , and we must be respectful of that reality .
No matter how you slice the data , the markets are back to more extreme overbought conditions on a short-term basis .
The break above the 200-dma triggered a parabolic advance in the market over the last week .
The market is making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
With indicators very overbought , short-term corrective action is likely .
( Note the market was just 3-standard deviations BELOW the 50-dma in March . )
” The number of sectors and markets which are trading at extreme overbought levels confirms this extension .
The chart below , available to our RIAPro.Net ( 30-day Risk-Free Trial ) , shows a market rarity .
Every sector and market , except for bonds , is extremely overbought .
The last time this happened was in the second week of April , which preceded a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ itself in a month-long consolidation .
The next good entry point came in mid-May .
The price level was relatively unchanged , and the risk/reward for adding risk exposure was much improved .
The short-term overbought condition becomes further complicated by the more extreme deviations from the 50-day moving average .
Historically , prices remain confined to a maximum deviation of +/- 5-7 % from its short-term moving average .
As shown below , we have blown well past those norms .
With more than 95 % of stocks now trading above the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market corrections .
Currently , the number of stocks above their 50-dma stalled at one of the highest levels in a decade .
Watch for deterioration , or a negative divergence , in the percentage to signal an upcoming correction .
With the vast majority of stocks being above the 50- and 200-dma moving averages , all short-term momentum indicators are now egregiously overbought .
As noted by the vertical red lines , when every measure is at historically overbought levels , corrections are frequent .
The furious rally in the “ fundamentally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a painful counter-trade against investors with a fundamental discipline .
As David Rosenberg noted yesterday : He is right , and this was a point I noted on Saturday .
The total put-call ratio all suggests similar positioning .
With investors getting extremely aggressive by buying call options , the ratio is back to a historical high .
The last time the put-call ratio was this elevated was in January when the belief was the “ economy was firing on all cylinders.
” Such extremes do not historically last long and usually resolve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months .
Buying Because We Have To We can not dismiss the issues of technical price deviations , valuations , and subsequent risk when adding exposure .
By the majority of measures that we track from momentum to price , and deviation , the market ’ s sharp advance has pushed the totality of those indicators back to overbought .
I understand if this seems confusing , but it is the difference between chasing markets short-term versus longer-term outcomes for portfolios .
This analysis is part of our thought process as we continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our portfolios .
Let me be clear about something .
As a portfolio manager , we buy “ opportunity ” because we have to .
If we don ’ t , we suffer career risk , plain and simple .
However , you don ’ t have to .
If you are indeed a long-term investor , you have to question the risk undertaken to achieve further returns in the market currently .
While we may indeed be shifting exposure and taking on some additional risk , we do so very cautiously .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the markets yesterday , as the bullish trend continues , we did so in more “ defensive ” areas .
With the momentum “ junk ” trade now very extended , we should see a rotation back into utilities , real estate , health care , and technology .
( Which may already be underway . )
Furthermore , as noted Saturday , we are also backing that increase in equity risk with increases in our bond holdings .
While the Fed is flooding the system with liquidity , the economic and fundamental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic , and earnings growth are substantially weaker , which are dependent on an unemployed consumer .
Therefore , we may be required to reverse recent increases in equity risk quickly .
However , bond yields are still heading to zero .
It is worth remembering that markets have a very nasty habit of sucking individuals into them when prices become detached from fundamentals .
Such is the case currently and has generally not had a positive outcome .
What you decide to do with this information is entirely up to you .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is enough of a bullish case , technically , to warrant taking on some equity risk on a very short-term basis .
We will see what happens over the next couple of weeks .
However , longer-term dynamics are decidedly bearish .
When those negative price dynamics combine with the fundamental and economic backdrop , the “ risk ” of having excessive exposure to the markets outweighs the potential “ reward .
“

by Lance Roberts
With investors throwing investing caution to the wind, technically speaking, it’s time to take on defensive positioning. Such was the warning we discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter. To wit:
“Regardless, the markets are bullish biased, and we must be respectful of that reality. No matter how you slice the data, the markets are back to more extreme overbought conditions on a short-term basis. The break above the 200-dma triggered a parabolic advance in the market over the last week. The market is making a 3-standard deviation move to the upside. With indicators very overbought, short-term corrective action is likely. (Note the market was just 3-standard deviations BELOW the 50-dma in March.)”
The number of sectors and markets which are trading at extreme overbought levels confirms this extension. The chart below, available to our RIAPro.Net Subscribers (30-day Risk-Free Trial), shows a market rarity. Every sector and market, except for bonds, is extremely overbought.
The last time this happened was in the second week of April, which preceded a 4% correction, and then resolved itself in a month-long consolidation. The next good entry point came in mid-May. The price level was relatively unchanged, and the risk/reward for adding risk exposure was much improved.
The short-term overbought condition becomes further complicated by the more extreme deviations from the 50-day moving average. Historically, prices remain confined to a maximum deviation of +/- 5-7% from its short-term moving average. As shown below, we have blown well past those norms.
A Warning Sign For Defensive Positioning
With more than 95% of stocks now trading above the 50-dma, such has historically signaled short-term market corrections. Currently, the number of stocks above their 50-dma stalled at one of the highest levels in a decade. Watch for deterioration, or a negative divergence, in the percentage to signal an upcoming correction.
With the vast majority of stocks being above the 50- and 200-dma moving averages, all short-term momentum indicators are now egregiously overbought. As noted by the vertical red lines, when every measure is at historically overbought levels, corrections are frequent.
Short Covering Rallies Are Short-Lived
The furious rally in the “fundamentally weak” areas of the market was a painful counter-trade against investors with a fundamental discipline. As David Rosenberg noted yesterday:
“While it is hard to identify real buyers in the flow data, there is no selling of equities, and that alone is extremely important. On top of that, we have a huge short squeeze going on — the most shorted stocks have collectively soared 65% from the March lows. The CFTC data shows a squeezing of the four-year high net speculative short position on the CME. (Down 14% last week to 38,593 net S&P 500 short contracts to a three-week low).”
He is right, and this was a point I noted on Saturday.
“Currently, non-commercial speculators are carrying one of the largest net-short positions on the S&P 500 in recent history. While such positioning doesn’t necessarily mean the market will crash, it has historically aligned with short-term peaks and bear markets.”
The total put-call ratio all suggests similar positioning. With investors getting extremely aggressive by buying call options, the ratio is back to a historical high. The last time the put-call ratio was this elevated was in January when the belief was the “economy was firing on all cylinders.”
Such extremes do not historically last long and usually resolve themselves within a couple of weeks to months.
Buying Because We Have To
We can not dismiss the issues of technical price deviations, valuations, and subsequent risk when adding exposure. By the majority of measures that we track from momentum to price, and deviation, the market’s sharp advance has pushed the totality of those indicators back to overbought.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I understand if this seems confusing, but it is the difference between chasing markets short-term versus longer-term outcomes for portfolios. This analysis is part of our thought process as we continue to weigh “equity risk” within our portfolios.
Let me be clear about something.
As a portfolio manager, we buy “opportunity” because we have to.
If we don’t, we suffer career risk, plain and simple.
However, you don’t have to. If you are indeed a long-term investor, you have to question the risk undertaken to achieve further returns in the market currently.
While we may indeed be shifting exposure and taking on some additional risk, we do so very cautiously.
Defensive Positioning
While we did increase our exposure to the markets yesterday, as the bullish trend continues, we did so in more “defensive” areas. With the momentum “junk” trade now very extended, we should see a rotation back into utilities, real estate, health care, and technology. (Which may already be underway.)
Furthermore, as noted Saturday, we are also backing that increase in equity risk with increases in our bond holdings.
(As opposed to the S&P 500, bonds are more than 3-standard deviations oversold. On Friday, bonds began a reversal rally. We recently added to our positions to take advantage of a risk rotation.)
“Even if we get a V-shaped recovery, we are going to be stuck in a deflationary pricing situation for a very long time. You have one-in-five Americans either unemployed or underemployed even after what was apparently a blockbuster jobs report. There is still too much idle capacity to be bidding up inflationary expectations at the moment. That’s why Treasuries are a very good buy right now.” – David Rosenberg
Risk Does Not Equal Reward
While the Fed is flooding the system with liquidity, the economic and fundamental backdrop remains a disaster. Fundamental, economic, and earnings growth are substantially weaker, which are dependent on an unemployed consumer. Therefore, we may be required to reverse recent increases in equity risk quickly. However, bond yields are still heading to zero.
It is worth remembering that markets have a very nasty habit of sucking individuals into them when prices become detached from fundamentals. Such is the case currently and has generally not had a positive outcome.
What you decide to do with this information is entirely up to you. As I stated, I do think there is enough of a bullish case, technically, to warrant taking on some equity risk on a very short-term basis. We will see what happens over the next couple of weeks.
However, longer-term dynamics are decidedly bearish. When those negative price dynamics combine with the fundamental and economic backdrop, the “risk” of having excessive exposure to the markets outweighs the potential “reward. “
Remember, investing is not a competition; it is a game of long-term survival.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-09--What could possibly go wrong? Protesters want to replace Minneapolis PD with ‘community-led safety’

Progressives never think through the consequences of their “ brilliant ” ideas .
You know what you need when a burglar or rapist breaks into your home in the middle of the night ?
A social worker .
Yeah , that ’ ll work out just A-OK. “ Thousands gathered for another weekend of protests in Minneapolis .
Their chants calling for justice for George Floyd but also the defunding the Minneapolis Police Department .
As they marched down University Avenue in northeast Minneapolis on Saturday , thousands called for an end to the city ’ s police department .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ forward without radical change , ” one member of the rally said .
Organizers of the event are calling for a transition from traditional policing to what they describe as “ community-led safety.
” “ There could be a system of first responders similar to a police force but they should be members of the community , not living in suburbs , ” said Jordan , another protester from St. Paul .
“ I think most the jobs that police do can be done by social workers .
Let ’ s hire more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good living wage.
” The event organizers , Black Visions Collective , is calling on Mayor Jacob Frey and the city council to defund the police department .
Several city council members have said they support such a plan .
“ As we strengthen community networks and relationships there will be us looking out for one another so there will be fewer robberies and break-ins and such , ” said Erika Thorne of Minneapolis .
“ We ’ ve tried all these reform initiatives and all these programs , ” said University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been black mayors , there was a black president , and nothing has worked and at some point you have to cut it lose.
” Read the whole story here .
Don ’ t worry ladies if you are hesitant to arm yourself .
Just pray that a neighbor saw the break-in and was looking out for you .
Or make sure you have a full bladder .
Note this happened yesterday afternoon : “ A veto-proof majority of Minneapolis City Council members will announce today their commitment to disbanding the city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ killing of George Floyd .
”

by DCG
Progressives never think through the consequences of their “brilliant” ideas.
You know what you need when a burglar or rapist breaks into your home in the middle of the night? A social worker. Yeah, that’ll work out just A-OK.
From MyFoxChicago:
“Thousands gathered for another weekend of protests in Minneapolis. Their chants calling for justice for George Floyd but also the defunding the Minneapolis Police Department.
As they marched down University Avenue in northeast Minneapolis on Saturday, thousands called for an end to the city’s police department. “There’s no real path forward without radical change,” one member of the rally said.
Organizers of the event are calling for a transition from traditional policing to what they describe as “community-led safety.”
“There could be a system of first responders similar to a police force but they should be members of the community, not living in suburbs,” said Jordan, another protester from St. Paul. “I think most the jobs that police do can be done by social workers. Let’s hire more social workers and pay them a really good living wage.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The event organizers, Black Visions Collective, is calling on Mayor Jacob Frey and the city council to defund the police department. Several city council members have said they support such a plan.
“As we strengthen community networks and relationships there will be us looking out for one another so there will be fewer robberies and break-ins and such,” said Erika Thorne of Minneapolis.
“We’ve tried all these reform initiatives and all these programs,” said University of Minnesota student Sandrind Sugi. “There have been black mayors, there was a black president, and nothing has worked and at some point you have to cut it lose.”
Read the whole story here.
Don’t worry ladies if you are hesitant to arm yourself. Just pray that a neighbor saw the break-in and was looking out for you. Or make sure you have a full bladder.
Note this happened yesterday afternoon: “A veto-proof majority of Minneapolis City Council members will announce today their commitment to disbanding the city’s embattled police department following the killing of George Floyd.”
Good luck, Minneapolis.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-09--Nancy Pelosi leads Democrats to take-a-knee, then can’t get up

Breitbart reports that yesterday , June 8 , 2020 , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) piously led fellow Congressional Democrats — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ( D-NY ) , Sen. Kamala Harris ( D-CA ) , and Sen. Cory Booker ( D-NJ ) — to “ take a knee ” in silence for 8 minutes and 46 seconds in Emancipation Hall at the U.S. Capitol “ in honor of ” George Floyd and to “ respect the actions of the American people to speak out ” against the “ consequences ” of slavery and racism “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minutes and 46 seconds are the same amount of time former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin , who has been charged with second degree murder and second-degree manslaughter , kneeled on Floyd ’ s neck , which ended in the latter ’ s death .
Referring to slavery in U.S. history , Pelosi said : “ That tragedy , that tragedy , that hour of history … slavery in our own country and then all the consequences of that .
We are here to observe that pain .
We are here to respect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speak out against that , specifically manifested in police brutality .
We are here to honor George Floyd and so many others who lost their lives and were abused by police brutality.
” Pelosi then read off a host of names , including Breonna Taylor , Ahmaud Arbery , Freddie Gray , Michel Brown , and Trayvon Martin , before the Democrat legislators , all draped in Kente cloth scarves , collectively took a knee .
Kente cloth is a textile made in Ghana , Africa , of interwoven cloth strips of silk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used by blacks in America as a symbol of ethnic pride .
After the kneeling , 80-year-old Pelosi struggled to get up .
Reaching to an aide for help , Pelosi blamed her high heels .
She said : “ It ’ s hard to get up .
It ’ s better not to have high heels.
” Afterwards , Pelosi made more pious remarks during a press briefing .
Glaringly ignoring the violence , burning , looting , and killing of many Floyd protests ( see “ America Under Siege : George @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” ) , Pelosi extolled the protests , saying : “ Today this moment of national anguish is being transformed into a movement of national action as Americans from across the country peacefully protest to demand an end to injustice.
” NOTHING , nothing is and will ever be sufficient to placate blacks and the Left about slavery .
Never mind the fact that Americans had fought the Civil War ( 1851-1865 ) to end slavery — the most ruinous war in U.S. history , which exacted a toll of an estimated 755,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the then-population .

by Dr. Eowyn
Breitbart reports that yesterday, June 8, 2020, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) piously led fellow Congressional Democrats — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) — to “take a knee” in silence for 8 minutes and 46 seconds in Emancipation Hall at the U.S. Capitol “in honor of” George Floyd and to “respect the actions of the American people to speak out” against the “consequences” of slavery and racism “specifically manifested in police brutality.”
8 minutes and 46 seconds are the same amount of time former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, who has been charged with second degree murder and second-degree manslaughter, kneeled on Floyd’s neck, which ended in the latter’s death.
Referring to slavery in U.S. history, Pelosi said:
“That tragedy, that tragedy, that hour of history … slavery in our own country and then all the consequences of that. We are here to observe that pain. We are here to respect the actions of the American people to speak out against that, specifically manifested in police brutality. We are here to honor George Floyd and so many others who lost their lives and were abused by police brutality.”
Pelosi then read off a host of names, including Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, Freddie Gray, Michel Brown, and Trayvon Martin, before the Democrat legislators, all draped in Kente cloth scarves, collectively took a knee.
Kente cloth is a textile made in Ghana, Africa, of interwoven cloth strips of silk and cotton. Kente scarves are often used by blacks in America as a symbol of ethnic pride.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
After the kneeling, 80-year-old Pelosi struggled to get up.
Reaching to an aide for help, Pelosi blamed her high heels. She said: “It’s hard to get up. It’s better not to have high heels.”
Afterwards, Pelosi made more pious remarks during a press briefing.
Glaringly ignoring the violence, burning, looting, and killing of many Floyd protests (see “America Under Siege: George Floyd rioters burn, loot, kill”), Pelosi extolled the protests, saying: “Today this moment of national anguish is being transformed into a movement of national action as Americans from across the country peacefully protest to demand an end to injustice.”
NOTHING, nothing is and will ever be sufficient to placate blacks and the Left about slavery. Never mind the fact that Americans had fought the Civil War (1851-1865) to end slavery — the most ruinous war in U.S. history, which exacted a toll of an estimated 755,000 military deaths, amounting to 2.385% of the then-population.
~Eowyn


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-09--Ranked: Average Workers’ Compensation Costs for Each State

Workers ’ compensation is a basic part of social insurance .
If you get injured while on the job and can no longer work , you might qualify for a steady income stream thanks to workers ’ comp .
But since it isn ’ t a federal program , the costs for workers ’ compensation insurance depend on the state .
• Alaska is the most expensive state in the country for workers ’ compensation , costing companies as much as $ 2.27 per $ 100 of payroll .
• California is the third most expensive in the country at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generous provisions around parental leave .
• Texas is the cheapest costs for workers ’ comp at only $ 0.54 , but that ’ s because companies aren ’ t required to participate in the program unless they want to .
• The average cost for workers ’ compensation programs across all 50 states and Washington , DC is $ 1.21 .
We got the data for our visual from the National Academy of Social Insurance ( NASI ) for 2017 , the latest year where complete figures were available .
Proper credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ original article bringing it to our attention .
We broke the numbers down into a spiraling bar chart with a color-coded breakdown , highlighting each 50-cent increment of cost per $ 100 of payroll .
This lets you easily see which states carry the heaviest and lightest burdens in paying workers ’ compensation .
Read the full report from NASI for a detailed description of the research methodology , but there are a couple things to call out in our visual before diving into the details .
Workers ’ compensation is for people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s an insurance program run by individual states covering specific types of workers .
The figures from NASI take into account only employers who are legally required to offer workers ’ compensation benefits .
Some companies may offer benefits even without a legal requirement , but a lot of workers don ’ t have coverage .
The researchers were also only focused on workers ’ compensation through official reporting channels , meaning they don ’ t take into account all the ways a company might support an injured employee .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a state-by-state basis .
There is no uniform federal requirement across the country .
Alaska clearly stands out head-and-shoulders above the rest of the states as the most expensive .
It costs companies a whopping $ 2.27 per $ 100 of payroll just to cover the premiums for insurance in case someone gets injured .
That ’ s likely thanks in large part to the predominance of heavy extraction industries in Alaska and how far away many people are from major hospitals .
The only other state to cost more than two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employers $ 2.01 , likely for the same reasons as Alaska .
But why is California so expensive ?
Part of the reason has to do with California ’ s laws on short-term disability due to non-work related injuries as well as leaves due to pregnancy .
According to NASI , other states high in the rankings also have similar programs , including Hawaii , New York , New Jersey and Rhode Island .
At the other end of the spectrum , Texas is the second cheapest in the country at $ 0.54 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s because companies aren ’ t required to offer it unless they want to , which means companies offer workers ’ comp as a fringe benefit especially when such insurance plans are cheap .
Wyoming likewise restricts workers ’ compensation only for employees who are in “ extra-hazardous ” occupations , likely driving up the cost of insurance and placing the state fifth on the list of most expensive at $ 1.70 .
Protecting your ability to earn an income is a key part of financial security .
Consider purchasing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t covered by workers ’ compensation .
Check out our disability insurance cost guide for more information , or if you ’ re an employer , see our workers ’ compensation cost guide .

by howmuch
Workers’ compensation is a basic part of social insurance. If you get injured while on the job and can no longer work, you might qualify for a steady income stream thanks to workers’ comp. But since it isn’t a federal program, the costs for workers’ compensation insurance depend on the state.
Buy this visualization
Alaska is the most expensive state in the country for workers’ compensation, costing companies as much as $2.27 per $100 of payroll.
California is the third most expensive in the country at $1.83 thanks in part to its generous provisions around parental leave.
Texas is the cheapest costs for workers’ comp at only $0.54, but that’s because companies aren’t required to participate in the program unless they want to.
The average cost for workers’ compensation programs across all 50 states and Washington, DC is $1.21.
We got the data for our visual from the National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI) for 2017, the latest year where complete figures were available. Proper credit to Fit Small Business for writing an original article bringing it to our attention. We broke the numbers down into a spiraling bar chart with a color-coded breakdown, highlighting each 50-cent increment of cost per $100 of payroll. This lets you easily see which states carry the heaviest and lightest burdens in paying workers’ compensation.
Top 5 Most Expensive States for Workers’ Compensation
1. Alaska: $2.27
2. Montana: $2.01
3. California: $1.83
4. South Carolina: $1.71
5. Wyoming: $1.70
Top 5 Least Expensive States for Workers’ Compensation
1. Washington, DC: $0.51
2. Texas: $0.54
3. Ohio: $0.67
4. Massachusetts: $0.73
5. Arkansas and Michigan: $0.74
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read the full report from NASI for a detailed description of the research methodology, but there are a couple things to call out in our visual before diving into the details. Workers’ compensation is for people who are injured on the job. It’s an insurance program run by individual states covering specific types of workers. The figures from NASI take into account only employers who are legally required to offer workers’ compensation benefits. Some companies may offer benefits even without a legal requirement, but a lot of workers don’t have coverage. The researchers were also only focused on workers’ compensation through official reporting channels, meaning they don’t take into account all the ways a company might support an injured employee. And finally, workers’ compensation is organized on a state-by-state basis. There is no uniform federal requirement across the country.
Alaska clearly stands out head-and-shoulders above the rest of the states as the most expensive. It costs companies a whopping $2.27 per $100 of payroll just to cover the premiums for insurance in case someone gets injured. That’s likely thanks in large part to the predominance of heavy extraction industries in Alaska and how far away many people are from major hospitals. The only other state to cost more than two bucks is Montana, where it runs employers $2.01, likely for the same reasons as Alaska. But why is California so expensive? Part of the reason has to do with California’s laws on short-term disability due to non-work related injuries as well as leaves due to pregnancy. According to NASI, other states high in the rankings also have similar programs, including Hawaii, New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island.
At the other end of the spectrum, Texas is the second cheapest in the country at $0.54 after Washington, DC at $0.51. That’s because companies aren’t required to offer it unless they want to, which means companies offer workers’ comp as a fringe benefit especially when such insurance plans are cheap. Wyoming likewise restricts workers’ compensation only for employees who are in “extra-hazardous” occupations, likely driving up the cost of insurance and placing the state fifth on the list of most expensive at $1.70.
Protecting your ability to earn an income is a key part of financial security. Consider purchasing a disability income insurance policy if you aren’t covered by workers’ compensation. Check out our disability insurance cost guide for more information, or if you’re an employer, see our workers’ compensation cost guide.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-09--I Believe in the Stupidity of the Stock Market

I believe in it in the sense that I believe it will stupidly become even stupider for a short time .
So , I ’ m putting money back into stocks in order to bet on stupid , not because I believe in a phantom V-shaped recovery , but because I constantly hear plenty of people do believe in the “ V. ” Right now the farce is with them — reopening has arrived !
And these stupid people will believe that means they were right about the “ V , ” virtually assuring they continue to bet the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market ended its short plateau and pushed through all of its major barriers last week , with the Dow finally breaking above its 200-day moving average ( typically a very bullish signal of a trend change ) .
All indices have also made it above that 60 % retracement I said could be expected in bear-market rallies .
This times out perfectly with the reopening of businesses in the United States .
The reopening means economic statistics will improve rapidly .
That will give a lot of stupid people many reasons to believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy would experience a V-shaped recovery .
What they won ’ t see because they don ’ t want to see it is that the steep recovery is not going to take the economy back to where it was .
It may take stocks back to their last highs ( and beyond ! )
but not the economy .
Many people continue to think the stock market is a gauge of the economy , even though the stock market has never been more completely disconnected from economic reality than it is now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ he says the economy has recovered because stocks have recovered .
They ’ ll buy the narrative they want to believe without even questioning it .
Here ’ s the full truth : Reopening means businesses will start to show rapid improvement , and millions of jobs will certainly come back almost overnight .
That ’ s half the truth .
The other half , which investors and Trump supporters won ’ t see because they don ’ t want to , is that many businesses will not reopen , and many jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which half of the truth you get to see first ?
We ’ ll be deep into July before we start to see where the rapid recovery stalls out , and then it may take a little longer before investors start to see it because they don ’ t want to .
At some point this summer , it will be clear that jobs are topping out well below where they were at the start of the year .
The economic recovery will look less V-shaped and more square-root ( which starts out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Narratives will be concocted to explain that away as a brief lull , but reality will keep pushing in , just as I ’ ve said will happen .
Unemployment will remain high enough to still be considered typical of a recession because marginal businesses did not reopen ( including particularly retail stores that were barely holding on ) .
Government stimulus programs will start to wind down unless congress extends them , which will be less likely if the virus stays at bay .
People who did not return to full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mortgages when forbearance ends in July .
Defaulting businesses will start to pile up , etc .
That ’ s a long slog , and where along that path the stock market finally gives up its delusions , I don ’ t know .
Maybe it never does .
However , between now and then , reopening is almost guaranteed to shoot economic statistics up quickly .
That ’ s because the one thing that is different between this huge crash and all previous ones like 1929 is that no previous big crashes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flipping the circuit breakers back on to restart the economy .
Because this was an instantaneous chosen economic shutdown , it can be a relatively quick turn-on , too .
Yet , the breakers are being turned back on in phases , just as often is done when major factories restart .
So , it may not be quite as immediate as it went down ; but it will be quick … to a point !
An then it will fail … along all the economic fault lines that the big jolt also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out perfectly for that moment when the Dow was pressed against its normal bear-market rally eight and was pushing against its 200-day moving average as a ceiling .
The reopening came just in the nick of time to thrust the Dow ( the market ’ s last holdout of the three most influential indices ) through those stiff resistance barriers .
So , we ’ ve broken through !
Had Trump chosen to keep the economy closed another month , I doubt all of the Fed ’ s pushing would have broken through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost by giving investors hope that the worst is behind us now .
There should be a lot of major good news during the month of reopening , and the market has shown it will ignore all bad news anyway .
Records will be broken in the good news ahead , which will symbiotically support the Fed ’ s stimulus efforts and the government stimulus efforts that are set to continue , at least , until mid-July .
So , the market may swell to its pervious highs and even beyond , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the economy stops rising because the “ V ” is a phantom .
Even GDP growth will look great after the second quarter because it is measured quarter-on-quarter and annualized , so the third quarter may yield the best GDP growth we ’ ve ever seen .
Trump will boast about it to salvage his election chances ; but he ’ s the one who decided to shut the economy down .
His supporters will believe it actually means something simply because they want to .
Stock investors will focus on it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something .
But look beneath the hood .
Sudden growth in GDP , when it happens ( and I ’ m telling you in advance it will in the third quarter ) , doesn ’ t mean a thing .
It is nothing but a rapid retracement from an near instant restart of a near total shutdown .
It ’ s really just math .
If you turn off a massive number of things , then suddenly turn them back on , you get a huge jolt .
The real issue is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , you ’ ll have to pay attention to total GDP , not GDP growth , because the total GDP line will remain well below where it was at the start of the year even though growth soars ( just as we ’ ll see it plummeted deeply negative in the second quarter ) .
That means the overall size of the economy will remain well below what it was .
Total GDP rarely sinks because population growth alone makes it greater every year , yet it already made a downtick in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy was already shrinking into recession before COVID-19 hit , just as I said it would : Total GDP is different from the following GDP growth rate graph , which shows how much GDP changes from one quarter to the next : Even on that graph , which the Fed has not updated since the beginning of the year ( perhaps because it doesn ’ t want to show how much GDP declined , rather than grew , until it can also show how much it bounced back ) , you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with all its massive tax cuts and deficits , delivered paltry growth .
How long it will take the market to accept that the economic “ V , ” which would be shown in the total GDP graph if it happened ( not the market “ V ” ) was a mirage , I don ’ t know because the market is , after all , stupid .
However , the economy ’ s long depression — a sustained dip below the level total GDP hit in the first graph at the start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many months after July in which it will have to maintain the fantasy without the benefit of the fantasy narrative that the initial reopening will deliver .
Will that eventually pound the point through the thick heads of investors ?
I think it will because reality has always won over market delusions in the past and because the Fed is now having to pump money at phenomenal rates just to avoid another repo crisis , let alone a stock-market collapse .
However , investors will be able to fool themselves for awhile into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market proves a “ V ” in the economy , even though market and economy have totally decoupled .
Plenty of other statistics will be available , such as continued unemployment , to prove the economy did not put in a V-shaped recovery ; but the market has proved adept at ignoring all statistics it doesn ’ t want to believe in .
The Fed is being supported by delusional belief in an ephemeral economic rebound that will disappoint and by government support ; but even the Fed is tapering , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the recent plunge that it was less willing to believe in the Fed and needed a lot more juice than it did in previous hard times .
So , trouble ultimately lies ahead for the market , too .
The ones to really feel the trouble before investors will be the people who didn ’ t get their jobs back , business owners who didn ’ t weather through the lockdown , people walking mainstream who see more closed businesses .
The repo market is also , again , showing no forgiveness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which I ’ ll come to .
Phantom facts are all we need now The market soared last week because unemployment dropped as jobs rose .
Of course jobs rose !
No one ( and I do mean “ NO ONE ” ) thought all the jobs that went away would stay away when the lockdown was lifted .
No one thought most of them would stay away or that they would be slow to start recovering .
Obviously , after the biggest and most rapid job loss in history , as shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this article , the spike back up due to a return to work will also be the biggest job gain in history !
So , expect a lot more job improvement to come .
However , the unbalanced stock market ignored the entire job-loss period , as if it didn ’ t matter , yet roared euphorically over the job-returning news as if it meant everything .
People who are not stupid , on the other hand , realized that enough of those jobs will ultimately stay away to leave the economy badly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Think about the following graph of NEW unemployment claims presented in the article just referenced : Euphoric bulls aren ’ t thinking about that .
They ’ re not thinking at all .
They are driven by pure testosterone .
The fact is , however , that 1.88 million NEW unemployment claims is massive for the start of reopening .
In a normal world , that number would have been devastating news ; but , because it looks so much better than the extraordinary bad news of the recent past that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great news , which they didn ’ t want to ignore .
In fact , the number of continuing jobless claims actually rose , in spite of the decline in new claims : Continued 10 % unemployment sounds like a big , bad recession to me , but the stock market isn ’ t going to see the obvious until it happens .
That means they won ’ t see it until unemployment stops going back down .
Blind bulls may not even see it then ; but , if they do , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Finally , the May jobs shocker was due to the CARES Act , which provided Payroll Protection money to employers to keep people on or put people back on their payrolls during the shutdown .
It ’ s not a normal kind of return to employment .
You can expect that nuance to be lost on investors who don ’ t want to be bothered with the fine print on the facts .
They are goal-seeking what facts they listen to .
That is how denial is maintained .
For the month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however , unemployment is nearly certain to go down , feeding delusional investors exactly the fantasy they want to believe in .
Many other positive economic indicators will rise quickly as money starts to flow through businesses again .
The speed will feed the recovery narrative , but it ’ s not the speed that matters .
A rapid bounce back up is quite likely .
It ’ s where things level off that matters — how much many measures of the economy fall short of where they were at the start of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important number to watch ( as well as the corollary of total unemployment ) .
Adding to the pain of those real-world numbers , many of those jobs that are reopening are doing so with wage cuts .
It ’ s also a fairly reasonable bet , as Jim Bianco claims , that those losing their jobs now — just as the economy is going from shutdown back to reopening — represent permanent job losses : This late in the game with employers fully knowing that reopening is happening , it is unlikely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the national shutdown and much more likely they are laying the off because they are shutting down their businesses in failure due to the national shutdown .
These are likely the zombie companies and other marginal companies that I said would not weather through the shutdown , already throwing in the towel .
Otherwise , why lay people off just as shut-down orders are being lifted ?
These are either job losses from company closings or from corporate resizing to the new economy .
This is what I ’ ve forecast from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short , it ain ’ t over till it ’ s over .
The market has actually already entered the ultimate bizarre phase I said we would see if the Fed kept pumping and market bulls kept following their delusions about a V-shaped recovery .
Remember how I wrote several times that , if the Fed ’ s game continued , we would move to the point where bankrupt shell corporations would trade as trillion-dollar chips in the casino because the only thing left that mattered was the continued existence of their name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Well , we ’ re there !
Not at the trillion-dollar level yet , but we live in the center of a diseased brain where bankrupt corporations — mere shells of their former selves — are skyrocketing as prized chips in the Wall Street Casino : Nothing screams “ buy ” in this Wonderland rabbit hole of a world like bankruptcy !
Just give me a good shell corporation I can trade on the market boards .
In this whirling dervish of a casino , you can buy bankrupt Hertz and see nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
The stock is up 1,450 % since the company declared bankruptcy .
The Fed supplies the money needed to keep the casino open , while the reopening supplies the fantasy fiction needed to keep the bets coming .
So , why would I risk betting on stupid ?
Because stupid is a pretty safe bet right now .
The only caveats to all of this for the next month or two will be if the flow of superficial good news from reopening causes the Fed and government to rapidly back down on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on ( unlikely ) or if the coronavirus returns this summer with a vengeance due to reopening , instead of waiting until normal flu season ( unpredictable but not too unlikely ) .
To keep all of this in perspective , realize that the economy ’ s steep climb from record job losses is just the completion of the first “ V ” in a “ W ” or in square-root symbol .
If a square-root symbol , even that will ultimately fail , turning into nothing but a short plateau , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Don ’ t mistake the shape of the stock market , which may well be a full “ V , ” for the shape of the economy ; but do know that the market has always corrected back to the economy in the past , and the economy is in deep trouble .
That is where the Fed is particularly dead .
Even if it pumps up stocks , it can ’ t save the economy because its earlier recovery plans , which it is now replaying , created a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first place , and those plans have about run out of gas .
So , the market is stupid because it is actually betting on the “ V. ” It believes in the “ V. ” I don ’ t , and I ’ m not betting on the “ V. ” I ’ m betting on stupid , and that seems like a pretty safe bet right now .
I ’ m betting that the reopening yields enough record good news to feed the delusion until the stimulus funding starts to dry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shutdown start to show up and the virus eventually returns or the repo crisis returns in full force .
The return of the coronavirus in full force could be extremely soon with so much social narrowing and mixing during the George Floyd protests that are taking us back into the Civil War , which have made it OK for Democrats to doff their masks and gather together in the thousands .
Give that a two-week gestation period .
While I try to surf the wave of peak stupidity in the belief that this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of next will provide plenty of surge to keep the wave going , I will be looking for the end of the reopening surge as the point to jump back off or the return of the COVID surge .
As for that repo crisis , now that the Fed is turning down the quantitative-easing tap to a mere 50 % higher flow than under QE3 , the Repocalypse has already returned .
The latest Fed overnight repo trade saw over a $ 100 billion in takers .
Apparently 1.5x QE3 isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It may be the bond market ’ s turn to go down before the stock market makes it next dive .
That ’ s why I ’ ve claimed since September , “ It ’ s QE4ever now , Baby !
” And that ’ s the way it is !

by David Haggith
I believe in it in the sense that I believe it will stupidly become even stupider for a short time. So, I’m putting money back into stocks in order to bet on stupid, not because I believe in a phantom V-shaped recovery, but because I constantly hear plenty of people do believe in the “V.”
Right now the farce is with them — reopening has arrived! And these stupid people will believe that means they were right about the “V,” virtually assuring they continue to bet the market up for a little while.
The market ended its short plateau and pushed through all of its major barriers last week, with the Dow finally breaking above its 200-day moving average (typically a very bullish signal of a trend change). All indices have also made it above that 60% retracement I said could be expected in bear-market rallies.
This times out perfectly with the reopening of businesses in the United States. The reopening means economic statistics will improve rapidly. That will give a lot of stupid people many reasons to believe they were right to think the obliterated economy would experience a V-shaped recovery. What they won’t see because they don’t want to see it is that the steep recovery is not going to take the economy back to where it was.
It may take stocks back to their last highs (and beyond!) but not the economy. Many people continue to think the stock market is a gauge of the economy, even though the stock market has never been more completely disconnected from economic reality than it is now. They will agree with Donald Trump when he says the economy has recovered because stocks have recovered. They’ll buy the narrative they want to believe without even questioning it.
Here’s the full truth: Reopening means businesses will start to show rapid improvement, and millions of jobs will certainly come back almost overnight. That’s half the truth. The other half, which investors and Trump supporters won’t see because they don’t want to, is that many businesses will not reopen, and many jobs will not come back.
But guess which half of the truth you get to see first? We’ll be deep into July before we start to see where the rapid recovery stalls out, and then it may take a little longer before investors start to see it because they don’t want to.
At some point this summer, it will be clear that jobs are topping out well below where they were at the start of the year. The economic recovery will look less V-shaped and more square-root (which starts out just like a “V’). Narratives will be concocted to explain that away as a brief lull, but reality will keep pushing in, just as I’ve said will happen.
Unemployment will remain high enough to still be considered typical of a recession because marginal businesses did not reopen (including particularly retail stores that were barely holding on). Government stimulus programs will start to wind down unless congress extends them, which will be less likely if the virus stays at bay. People who did not return to full employment will start to default on their mortgages when forbearance ends in July. Defaulting businesses will start to pile up, etc.
That’s a long slog, and where along that path the stock market finally gives up its delusions, I don’t know. Maybe it never does.
However, between now and then, reopening is almost guaranteed to shoot economic statistics up quickly. That’s because the one thing that is different between this huge crash and all previous ones like 1929 is that no previous big crashes had the possibility of the government just flipping the circuit breakers back on to restart the economy.
Because this was an instantaneous chosen economic shutdown, it can be a relatively quick turn-on, too. Yet, the breakers are being turned back on in phases, just as often is done when major factories restart. So, it may not be quite as immediate as it went down; but it will be quick … to a point! An then it will fail … along all the economic fault lines that the big jolt also reopened.
The reopening of businesses timed out perfectly for that moment when the Dow was pressed against its normal bear-market rally eight and was pushing against its 200-day moving average as a ceiling. The reopening came just in the nick of time to thrust the Dow (the market’s last holdout of the three most influential indices) through those stiff resistance barriers. So, we’ve broken through!
Had Trump chosen to keep the economy closed another month, I doubt all of the Fed’s pushing would have broken through those barriers because reopening gave a huge boost by giving investors hope that the worst is behind us now.
There should be a lot of major good news during the month of reopening, and the market has shown it will ignore all bad news anyway. Records will be broken in the good news ahead, which will symbiotically support the Fed’s stimulus efforts and the government stimulus efforts that are set to continue, at least, until mid-July.
The phantom “V”
So, the market may swell to its pervious highs and even beyond, but look out when the “V” in the economy stops rising because the “V” is a phantom.
What we have is a not a V-shape but a reverse tick shape: down huge and up a little (and even less than shown). Yes, at least it’s not still down. Yes, some more jobs will come back as reopening begins. But many sectors won’t, and once government payroll support schemes end we will see just how ugly things really are…. Nonetheless … equities up big: because bad news is good news for stocks and good news is also good news, apparently. Zero Hedge
Even GDP growth will look great after the second quarter because it is measured quarter-on-quarter and annualized, so the third quarter may yield the best GDP growth we’ve ever seen. Trump will boast about it to salvage his election chances; but he’s the one who decided to shut the economy down. His supporters will believe it actually means something simply because they want to. Stock investors will focus on it as if the growth rate does mean something.
But look beneath the hood. Sudden growth in GDP, when it happens (and I’m telling you in advance it will in the third quarter), doesn’t mean a thing. It is nothing but a rapid retracement from an near instant restart of a near total shutdown. It’s really just math. If you turn off a massive number of things, then suddenly turn them back on, you get a huge jolt. The real issue is what broke in the jolt.
To see that, you’ll have to pay attention to total GDP, not GDP growth, because the total GDP line will remain well below where it was at the start of the year even though growth soars (just as we’ll see it plummeted deeply negative in the second quarter).
That means the overall size of the economy will remain well below what it was. Total GDP rarely sinks because population growth alone makes it greater every year, yet it already made a downtick in the first month of the year because the economy was already shrinking into recession before COVID-19 hit, just as I said it would:
Total GDP is different from the following GDP growth rate graph, which shows how much GDP changes from one quarter to the next:
Even on that graph, which the Fed has not updated since the beginning of the year (perhaps because it doesn’t want to show how much GDP declined, rather than grew, until it can also show how much it bounced back), you can see that the entire Trump presidency, with all its massive tax cuts and deficits, delivered paltry growth.
How long it will take the market to accept that the economic “V,” which would be shown in the total GDP graph if it happened (not the market “V”) was a mirage, I don’t know because the market is, after all, stupid. However, the economy’s long depression — a sustained dip below the level total GDP hit in the first graph at the start of year — will give the market many months after July in which it will have to maintain the fantasy without the benefit of the fantasy narrative that the initial reopening will deliver.
Will that eventually pound the point through the thick heads of investors? I think it will because reality has always won over market delusions in the past and because the Fed is now having to pump money at phenomenal rates just to avoid another repo crisis, let alone a stock-market collapse. However, investors will be able to fool themselves for awhile into thinking the “V” in the market proves a “V” in the economy, even though market and economy have totally decoupled.
Plenty of other statistics will be available, such as continued unemployment, to prove the economy did not put in a V-shaped recovery; but the market has proved adept at ignoring all statistics it doesn’t want to believe in.
The Fed is being supported by delusional belief in an ephemeral economic rebound that will disappoint and by government support; but even the Fed is tapering, and the stock market already showed at the start of the recent plunge that it was less willing to believe in the Fed and needed a lot more juice than it did in previous hard times.
So, trouble ultimately lies ahead for the market, too. The ones to really feel the trouble before investors will be the people who didn’t get their jobs back, business owners who didn’t weather through the lockdown, people walking mainstream who see more closed businesses.
The repo market is also, again, showing no forgiveness toward the Fed’s tapering, which I’ll come to.
Phantom facts are all we need now
The market soared last week because unemployment dropped as jobs rose. Of course jobs rose! No one (and I do mean “NO ONE”) thought all the jobs that went away would stay away when the lockdown was lifted.
No one thought most of them would stay away or that they would be slow to start recovering. Obviously, after the biggest and most rapid job loss in history, as shown in the graph at the top of this article, the spike back up due to a return to work will also be the biggest job gain in history! So, expect a lot more job improvement to come.
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However, the unbalanced stock market ignored the entire job-loss period, as if it didn’t matter, yet roared euphorically over the job-returning news as if it meant everything.
People who are not stupid, on the other hand, realized that enough of those jobs will ultimately stay away to leave the economy badly crippled for a long time to come:
Unemployment data this week is anything but promising, suggesting a V- shaped economic recovery is a pipe dream. Continuing jobless claims show people aren’t being rehired. Salary cuts across the board mean even those who have a job have less to spend. CCN
Think about the following graph of NEW unemployment claims presented in the article just referenced:
As the article notes,
Unemployment data showed a decline in new claims, but the number of people filing is still outrageous.
Euphoric bulls aren’t thinking about that. They’re not thinking at all. They are driven by pure testosterone. The fact is, however, that 1.88 million NEW unemployment claims is massive for the start of reopening. In a normal world, that number would have been devastating news; but, because it looks so much better than the extraordinary bad news of the recent past that the market ignored, bulls took it as great news, which they didn’t want to ignore.
Wall Street bulls celebrated when this week’s unemployment data showed that new claims had fallen to 1.877 million. That’s the lowest they’ve been since lockdowns began…. There’s still an extraordinarily high number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Recall that before the pandemic rocked the U.S. economy, that figure ranged between 200,000 and 220,000…. It gets worse. That’s just the number of initial jobless claims— meaning people filing for the first time.
In fact, the number of continuing jobless claims actually rose, in spite of the decline in new claims:
The number of continuing claims suggests people aren’t being rehired. | Source: Trading Economics
A whopping 21.5 million Americans have yet to be rehired despite the fact that the U.S. economy is reopening…. The University of Chicago estimated that approximately 42% – or 9 million of those people – will remain unemployed. Other estimates suggest upwards of 16 million, or roughly 10% of the entire labor force, will continue to claim unemployment benefits for the foreseeable future.
Continued 10% unemployment sounds like a big, bad recession to me, but the stock market isn’t going to see the obvious until it happens. That means they won’t see it until unemployment stops going back down. Blind bulls may not even see it then; but, if they do, it will be quite a wake-up call.
Finally, the May jobs shocker was due to the CARES Act, which provided Payroll Protection money to employers to keep people on or put people back on their payrolls during the shutdown. It’s not a normal kind of return to employment. You can expect that nuance to be lost on investors who don’t want to be bothered with the fine print on the facts. They are goal-seeking what facts they listen to. That is how denial is maintained.
For the month ahead and into part of July, however, unemployment is nearly certain to go down, feeding delusional investors exactly the fantasy they want to believe in. Many other positive economic indicators will rise quickly as money starts to flow through businesses again.
The speed will feed the recovery narrative, but it’s not the speed that matters. A rapid bounce back up is quite likely. It’s where things level off that matters — how much many measures of the economy fall short of where they were at the start of year.
Total jobs will be an important number to watch (as well as the corollary of total unemployment). Adding to the pain of those real-world numbers, many of those jobs that are reopening are doing so with wage cuts.
It’s also a fairly reasonable bet, as Jim Bianco claims, that those losing their jobs now — just as the economy is going from shutdown back to reopening — represent permanent job losses:
Claims in 20 minutes. Consensus is 1.8 million We are now 11 weeks into the shutdown and everything is restarting. If 1.8 million lose their jobs now, it's a good bet these are permanent and not temporary furloughs. Ditto the 2+ million that filed claims last week. — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 4, 2020
This late in the game with employers fully knowing that reopening is happening, it is unlikely employers are laying people off due to the national shutdown and much more likely they are laying the off because they are shutting down their businesses in failure due to the national shutdown.
These are likely the zombie companies and other marginal companies that I said would not weather through the shutdown, already throwing in the towel. Otherwise, why lay people off just as shut-down orders are being lifted? These are either job losses from company closings or from corporate resizing to the new economy.
The pandemic isn’t finished with the U.S. labor market, threatening a second wave of job cuts—this time among white-collar workers. Close to 6 million jobs are potentially on the line, according to Bloomberg Economics. That includes higher-paid supervisors in sectors where frontline workers were hit first, such as restaurants and hotels. It also includes the knock on-effects to connected industries such as professional services, finance and real estate. “It will get worse before it gets better—white-collar workers will now bear the brunt,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even if states and businesses reopen, we’re likely to see this second wave of losses,” since the labor market tends to lag economic activity, she said…. “Businesses are still operating in such an uncertain environment and they’re still adjusting to the new reality, and the new reality may be that you don’t need as many workers.” Bloomberg
This is what I’ve forecast from the start of the Great Shutdown.
In short, it ain’t over till it’s over.
Every company right now is busy figuring out how to do more with less.
And once they figure who the less is those jobs are not coming back. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) May 11, 2020
Prediction fulfilled: shell corporations trade as prized chips
The market has actually already entered the ultimate bizarre phase I said we would see if the Fed kept pumping and market bulls kept following their delusions about a V-shaped recovery.
Remember how I wrote several times that, if the Fed’s game continued, we would move to the point where bankrupt shell corporations would trade as trillion-dollar chips in the casino because the only thing left that mattered was the continued existence of their name as a place holder for bets?
Reality? Who needs it! We have a stock market, for cryin’ out loud! And if you have a stock market, you don’t even need an economy! Give me one good reason why stocks can’t exist and be traded like casino chips without a real business behind them when the market hasn’t paid a dime’s worth of attention to GAAP-based business numbers for years anyway. Just make it a stock market full of shell corporations that used to be real businesses, and keep betting their values up using free Fed money. “If Bulls Had Wings They Could Fly; Without Them They’ll Die!” April 9, 2020
Even in the extraordinary event the market does keep going up, in spite of the endless outpouring of historically atrocious economic news … all that means (as I said before) is the S&P 500 is going to become a list of revenue-stripped shell corporations… and what does that matter … because they’ll just be meaningless chips in a casino — nothing left but space holders for a bet? It will become the most meaningless market in history. “Wall Street Bulls Battle the Bears in Mother of All Recessions” April 15, 2020
As company values crash in terms of price-to-sales ratios or revenue or earnings or forward guidance or any business metric you want to apply, the Fed wants to make sure that stock prices are never true valuations again. That means we could soon have the scenario where mere shell corporations trade as trillion-dollar chips in the Wall-Street casinos. Ask yourself one common-sense question: if it doesn’t matter for stock-trading purposes whether or not corporations have any actual business income under the coronavirus shutdown, does it even matter if they actually exist? So long as their name exits, why not keep betting them up? “Fiercest Economic Collapse in History is Best Month for Stock Market” May, 1, 2020
Well, we’re there! Not at the trillion-dollar level yet, but we live in the center of a diseased brain where bankrupt corporations — mere shells of their former selves — are skyrocketing as prized chips in the Wall Street Casino:
This market is so bullish even bankrupt companies are rallying.$HTZ pic.twitter.com/TPMh0wyay1 — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) June 5, 2020
The move in stock of bankrupt Hertz has gone absolutely parabolic, with the stock rising as high as $6.25, nearly triple its Friday close…. As a reminder, the stock was trading at 80 cents just last Thursday, returning approximately 800% in the past three trading days … sending the company stock soaring even though it is patently worthless…. As for Hertz, we hope the company’s sells a few hundred million worth of stock – after all there is apparently endless demand for its shares…. Joking aside, we hope that at some point the regulators (remember them) will step in and put an end to this insanity before too many gamblers lose their life savings…. Zero Hedge
Nothing screams “buy” in this Wonderland rabbit hole of a world like bankruptcy! Just give me a good shell corporation I can trade on the market boards. In this whirling dervish of a casino, you can buy bankrupt Hertz and see nearly ten times your money over the weekend! The stock is up 1,450% since the company declared bankruptcy.
The Fed supplies the money needed to keep the casino open, while the reopening supplies the fantasy fiction needed to keep the bets coming.
It’s the mother of all “money illusion” rallies. In 3 months, the Fed juiced up M2 by a cool $2.5T, and the S&P 500 mkt cap surged dollar for dollar. Who needs earnings? Who needs productivity? Who even needs buybacks anymore? MMT arrived early and with a Republican in office!! David Rosenberg | Source: Zero Hedge
So, why would I risk betting on stupid?
Because stupid is a pretty safe bet right now. The only caveats to all of this for the next month or two will be if the flow of superficial good news from reopening causes the Fed and government to rapidly back down on the support the market is fully dependent on (unlikely) or if the coronavirus returns this summer with a vengeance due to reopening, instead of waiting until normal flu season (unpredictable but not too unlikely).
To keep all of this in perspective, realize that the economy’s steep climb from record job losses is just the completion of the first “V” in a “W” or in square-root symbol. If a square-root symbol, even that will ultimately fail, turning into nothing but a short plateau, when we fall back off the other end.
Don’t mistake the shape of the stock market, which may well be a full “V,” for the shape of the economy; but do know that the market has always corrected back to the economy in the past, and the economy is in deep trouble. That is where the Fed is particularly dead. Even if it pumps up stocks, it can’t save the economy because its earlier recovery plans, which it is now replaying, created a lot of the economy’s trouble in the first place, and those plans have about run out of gas.
So, the market is stupid because it is actually betting on the “V.” It believes in the “V.” I don’t, and I’m not betting on the “V.” I’m betting on stupid, and that seems like a pretty safe bet right now. I’m betting that the reopening yields enough record good news to feed the delusion until the stimulus funding starts to dry up and the knock-on effects of the shutdown start to show up and the virus eventually returns or the repo crisis returns in full force.
The return of the coronavirus in full force could be extremely soon with so much social narrowing and mixing during the George Floyd protests that are taking us back into the Civil War, which have made it OK for Democrats to doff their masks and gather together in the thousands. Give that a two-week gestation period.
While I try to surf the wave of peak stupidity in the belief that this month and, at least, part of next will provide plenty of surge to keep the wave going, I will be looking for the end of the reopening surge as the point to jump back off or the return of the COVID surge.
As for that repo crisis, now that the Fed is turning down the quantitative-easing tap to a mere 50% higher flow than under QE3, the Repocalypse has already returned. The latest Fed overnight repo trade saw over a $100 billion in takers. Apparently 1.5x QE3 isn’t enough to keep markets liquid in Bozoland. It may be the bond market’s turn to go down before the stock market makes it next dive.
That’s why I’ve claimed since September, “It’s QE4ever now, Baby!”
And that’s the way it is!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--Antifa have captured and barricaded 6 city blocks in Seattle – Police precinct abandoned – Antifa se

Antifa have captured and barricaded 6 city blocks in Seattle – Police precinct abandoned – Antifa set up barricades to create a border

Seattle @ MayorJenny is allowing a dangerous situation to fester .
# Antifa militants have taken over & created an “ autonomous zone ” in city w/their own rules .
Police precinct abandoned .
Antifa set up barricades to create a border .
Calling for volunteers to provide armed guard .
VIDEO : Attorney General Bill Barr Has Trouble Containing His Laughter When Challenged Over Trump ’ s Authority to Deploy Troops # ThugLyfe Seattle Police SURRENDER East Precinct To Armed Far Leftists , 7 Block Radius Declared “ Free Zone.
” The police claim this is a deescalation tactic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems like this is semantics .
Seattle PD abandoned the department after claiming they wouldn ’ t and the far left moved in to create a 7 block area called the Capitol Hill Free Zone .
It does seem a bit like these people are just LARPing but many are now taking up arms and wearing body armor .
There are calls for armed guards to protect the barricades and local business have been forced to “ disaffiliate ” from the city .
In other jurisdictions Prosecutors are outright refusing to charge rioters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law enforcement based on ideology .
While we can mock these people it is important to note that this could be the start of something more dangerous if something isn ’ t done soon .

Andy Ngô
Verified account
@MrAndyNgo
Seattle @MayorJenny is allowing a dangerous situation to
fester. #Antifa militants have taken over & created an
“autonomous zone” in city w/their own rules. Police precinct
abandoned. Antifa set up barricades to create a border.
Calling for volunteers to provide armed guard.
Seattle @MayorJenny is allowing a dangerous situation to fester. #Antifa militants have taken over & created an “autonomous zone” in city w/their own rules. Police precinct abandoned. Antifa set up barricades to create a border. Calling for volunteers to provide armed guard. pic.twitter.com/ksQI4NI5kP — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) June 9, 2020
***UPDATE***
When antifa can’t achieve a full revolution, they take over a small area in leftist cities to carry out their utopian commune experiment. It ends in neighborhoods being destroyed & occupiers forcibly dispersed because of health hazards. They leave the filth behind for others. t.co/JWBntUW2zd — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) June 9, 2020
VIDEO: Attorney General Bill Barr Has Trouble Containing His
Laughter When Challenged Over Trump’s Authority to Deploy
Troops #ThugLyfe
Seattle Police SURRENDER East Precinct To Armed Far Leftists, 7 Block Radius Declared “Free Zone.” The police claim this is a deescalation tactic and that may be but it really seems like this is semantics.
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Seattle PD abandoned the department after claiming they wouldn’t and the far left moved in to create a 7 block area called the Capitol Hill Free Zone.
It does seem a bit like these people are just LARPing but many are now taking up arms and wearing body armor. There are calls for armed guards to protect the barricades and local business have been forced to “disaffiliate” from the city.
In other jurisdictions Prosecutors are outright refusing to charge rioters and protesters for crimes committed giving favorable law enforcement based on ideology.
While we can mock these people it is important to note that this could be the start of something more dangerous if something isn’t done soon.
h/t dr0id


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--President Trump Drops a NUKE on 3 Big Name “Republicans” After They Reveal Who Has Their 2020 Vote

Bronson Stocking from Townhall reports , Never Trump Republicans are crawling out of the woodwork and fanning out across the @ @ @ @ @ for Joe Biden .
The big three who are being hyped by the media as @ @ @ @ @ Trump from power intensifies are former President George W. Bush , Mitt Romney and Colin @ @

Bronson Stocking from Townhall reports, Never Trump Republicans are crawling out of the woodwork and fanning out across the media to declare their support for Joe Biden. The big three who are being hyped by the media as the push to dislodge President Trump from power intensifies are former President George W. Bush, Mitt Romney and Colin Powell.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/bronson…


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--Democrat Kentucky Governor: 100% Free Healthcare For Black People Only

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear ( D ) on Monday announced his plans to provide 100 % health coverage for black @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s part of the state ’ s plan to tackle systemic racism in @ @ @ @ @ In our health care system , the inequalities have been laid bare and exposed by @ @ @ @ @ results of inequality in health care have been shown in depth , ” Beshear said @ @ @ @ @ type of inequality to exist for as long as it has , we see African @ @ @ @ @ rate that they make up of the population , it shouldn ’ t have taken @ @ @ @ @ for us to commit to ending it.
” “ My commitment today is we are @ @ @ @ @ to cover 100 percent of our individuals in our black and African-American communities , everybody @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We ’ re gon na be putting dollars behind it.
” So Democrats @ @ @ @ @ but White Lives Don ’ t .

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) on Monday announced his plans to provide 100% health coverage for black residents.
Mr. Beshear said it’s part of the state’s plan to tackle systemic racism in the healthcare system.
“In our health care system, the inequalities have been laid bare and exposed by this COVID-19 pandemic and the results of inequality in health care have been shown in depth,” Beshear said. “By allowing this type of inequality to exist for as long as it has, we see African Americans dying at twice the rate that they make up of the population, it shouldn’t have taken this pandemic or these demonstrations for us to commit to ending it.”
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“My commitment today is we are gonna begin an effort to cover 100 percent of our individuals in our black and African-American communities, everybody” the Democrat governor said. “We’re gonna be putting dollars behind it.”
So Democrats say Black Lives Matter, but White Lives Don’t.
Gov. Andy Beshear announced on June 8 that Kentucky will begin working toward the goal of making sure all Black Kentuckians are covered with either Medicaid, Medicare, or private insurance pic.twitter.com/5Qy3IllM5k — NowThis (@nowthisnews) June 8, 2020
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06…nts-video/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--WHOA! Look Which Dem Just BROKE With Their Party and Does NOT Want to Defund the Police!

Henry Rodgers from the Daily Caller reports , Democratic New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker on Sunday morning said he would @ @ @ @ @ of the police , as many celebrities and protesters have done since the death of @ @ @ @ @ about defunding law enforcement on NBC ’ s “ Meet the Press , ” Booker @ @ @ @ @ or use the term but that he does believe the U.S. is “ overpoliced as @ @ @ @

Henry Rodgers from the Daily Caller reports, Democratic New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker on Sunday morning said he would not call for the defunding of the police, as many celebrities and protesters have done since the death of George Floyd. When asked about defunding law enforcement on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Booker said he would not defend or use the term but that he does believe the U.S. is “overpoliced as a society.”
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
dailycaller.com/2020/06/07/co…


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--MUST SEE! Pelosi Suffers Worse Mental Lapse Yet, Malfunctions For 10 Seconds Straight!

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports , This may be one of Speaker Pelosi ’ s worst mental lapses @ @ @ @ @ Pelosi ( D-CA ) stuttered and malfunctioned for 10 seconds straight during a presser on @ @

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports, This may be one of Speaker Pelosi’s worst mental lapses yet! House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stuttered and malfunctioned for 10 seconds straight during a presser on Thursday.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--JOB-Pocalypse and A Falling Economy! Stock Market Now 100% All In Maximum Leverage!

There ’ s so much attention on the markets right now because of the unprecedented performance .
It has been escalating dramatically , thanks to unicorns and fairy dust .
The world supply of unicorns is also infinite so there ’ s no need to worry about it and the demand is always high .
Congratulations to the central banks for their excellent work here….actually , wait a minute .
Jobs bloodbath accelerates easing of lockdown for pubs , restaurants and weddings | News | The Sunday Times People Aren ’ t Visiting Branches .
Banks Are Wondering How Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies plan to hire robots after coronavirus layoffs Workers face cuts to hours , pay , as they return to old jobs during the coronavirus pandemic – The Washington Post Guardians of the World Economy Stagger From Rescue to Recovery – Bloomberg Left out : More workers now losing hope of getting back jobs Look for the S & P 500 to turn positive for the year with a boost from the Fed in the week ahead ( 1 ) SentimenTrader on Twitter : “ This is stunning .
At the peak of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bought to open 7.5 million call contracts .
This week , they bought 12.1 million .
Watch what people do , not what they say .
They ’ re full-bore bullish , on steroids .
t.co/T1v74xq1Of ” / Twitter The Bull Is Back !
Markets Charge As Economy Lags 06-05-20 – RIA

There’s so much attention on the markets right now because of the unprecedented performance. It has been escalating dramatically, thanks to unicorns and fairy dust. The world supply of unicorns is also infinite so there’s no need to worry about it and the demand is always high. Congratulations to the central banks for their excellent work here….actually, wait a minute.
Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Jobs bloodbath accelerates easing of lockdown for pubs, restaurants and weddings | News | The Sunday Times
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jobs-bloodbath-accelerates-easing-of-lockdown-for-pubs-restaurants-and-weddings-wgmlfzzpx
People Aren’t Visiting Branches. Banks Are Wondering How Many They Actually Need. – WSJ
www.wsj.com/articles/people-arent-visiting-branches-banks-are-wondering-how-many-they-actually-need-11591531200
How companies plan to hire robots after coronavirus layoffs
www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/how-companies-plan-to-hire-robots-after-coronavirus-layoffs.html
Workers face cuts to hours, pay, as they return to old jobs during the coronavirus pandemic – The Washington Post
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/06/workers-pay-cuts-coronavirus/
Many American workers remain unemployed as Wall Street surges
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www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/many-american-workers-remain-unemployed-as-wall-street-surges.html
Guardians of the World Economy Stagger From Rescue to Recovery – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-06/guardians-of-the-world-economy-stagger-from-rescue-to-recovery
Left out: More workers now losing hope of getting back jobs
apnews.com/f6861a055dd8eb86e21e528bf4b54653
Look for the S&P 500 to turn positive for the year with a boost from the Fed in the week ahead
www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/look-for-the-sp-500-to-turn-positive-for-the-year-with-a-boost-from-the-fed-in-the-week-ahead.html
(1) SentimenTrader on Twitter: “This is stunning. At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 million call contracts. This week, they bought 12.1 million. Watch what people do, not what they say. They’re full-bore bullish, on steroids. t.co/T1v74xq1Of” / Twitter
twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1269256793445859328
The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags 06-05-20 – RIA
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-is-back-markets-charge-as-economy-lags-06-05-20/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--DNI Richard Grenell On The Russia Collusion Hoax

Former Acting Director of National Intelligence , Richard Grenell was on the Rubin Report and he dropped some shocking information related to the beginnings of the Russia collusion sham .
At the 25:00 minute mark , Richard Grenell shares the following : Grenell : The current intelligence community , not the former intelligence community that the New York Times and the Washington Post constantly quote .
You ’ ll notice they always say a former intelligence official .
That ’ s clearly a former person who was a political appointee .
Rubin : It ’ s also possible a source @ @ @ @ @ @ @ janitor .
You just don ’ t know .
Grenell : Yep .
The current intelligence community was clamoring for reform , which I delivered .
It wasn ’ t , truly , it wasn ’ t , most of these ideas were not my idea .
I just said ‘ yes ’ to them because the system was saying we needed to reform .
And the current intelligence community believes there are a couple of bad apples that they got to get out there and that they were manipulated .
And I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flags early on in the Russia investigation from a variety of agencies and some people made those red flags and those comments from people coming forward , saying ‘ this Russian stuff is not true ’ , they classified that information and pushed it away .
I ’ ve seen that information and I ’ ve called for it to be declassified .
It ’ s a process that ’ s ongoing , it takes time .
I wasn ’ t there long enough to do it .
But there are instances where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in certain agencies and I ’ ve requested that information to come out and I hope that it will.
” “ Somebody Cooked Up The Plot ” : The Hunt For The Origins Of The Russia Collusion Narrative Armed with subpoenas , Sens .
Lindsey Graham , R-S.C. , and Ron Johnson , R-Wis. , want to interrogate a slew of Obama-era intelligence and law enforcement officials hoping to identify who invented and sustained the bogus Russia collusion narrative that hampered Donald Trump ’ s early presidency .
And while Graham and Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alec Baldwin , they and their GOP cohorts have a theory worthy of a Tom Clancy novel-turned-movie : The Russia collusion investigation was really a plot by an outgoing administration to thwart the new president .
“ What we had was a very quiet insurrection that took place , ” Sen. Marsha Blackburn , the Tennessee Republican , told Just the News on Thursday as she described the theory of Senate investigators .
“ And there were probably dozens of people at DOJ and FBI that knew what was going on .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ … that they were willing to work under the cloak of law and try to use that to shield them so that they could take an action on their disgust , ” she added .
“ They wanted to prohibit him from being president .
And when he won , they wanted to render him ineffective at doing his job.
” For much of the last two years , the exact theory that congressional Republicans held about the bungled , corrupt Russia probe — where collusion between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — was always evolving .
But after explosive testimony this week from former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein , who openly accused the FBI of keeping him in the dark about flaws , failures and exculpatory evidence in the case , the GOP believes it may prove the Russia case was a conspiracy to use the most powerful law enforcement and intelligence tools in America to harm Trump .
Two years of declassified memos are now in evidence that show : The FBI was warned before it used Christopher Steele ’ s dossier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a FISA warrant that the former British spy might be the target of Russian disinformation , that he despised Trump and that he was being paid to help Hillary Clinton ’ s campaign .
But agents proceeded anyway .
The bureau was told by the CIA that its primary target , Trump adviser Carter Page , wasn ’ t a Russian spy but rather a CIA asset .
But it hid that evidence from the DOJ and courts , even falsifying a document to keep the secret .
The FBI opened a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the suspicion he might arrange Russian dirt on Hillary Clinton but quickly determined he didn ’ t have the Russian contacts to pull it off .
But the case kept going .
The FBI intercepted conversations between its informants and Papadopoulos and Page showing the two men made numerous statements of innocence , and kept that evidence from the DOJ and the courts .
The FBI investigated Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn for five months and concluded there was no derogatory evidence he committed a crime or posed an intelligence threat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overruled the decision and proceeded to interview Flynn .
The FBI and DOJ both knew by August 2017 there was no evidence of Trump-Russia collusion but allowed another 18 months of investigation to persist without announcing the president was innocent .

Former Acting Director of National Intelligence, Richard Grenell was on the Rubin Report and he dropped some shocking information related to the beginnings of the Russia collusion sham.
At the 25:00 minute mark, Richard Grenell shares the following:
Grenell: The current intelligence community, not the former intelligence community that the New York Times and the Washington Post constantly quote. You’ll notice they always say a former intelligence official. That’s clearly a former person who was a political appointee.
Rubin: It’s also possible a source on Capital Hill who could be a janitor. You just don’t know.
Grenell: Yep. The current intelligence community was clamoring for reform, which I delivered. It wasn’t, truly, it wasn’t, most of these ideas were not my idea. I just said ‘yes’ to them because the system was saying we needed to reform.
And the current intelligence community believes there are a couple of bad apples that they got to get out there and that they were manipulated. And I will say this – there were red flags early on in the Russia investigation from a variety of agencies and some people made those red flags and those comments from people coming forward, saying ‘this Russian stuff is not true’, they classified that information and pushed it away.
I’ve seen that information and I’ve called for it to be declassified. It’s a process that’s ongoing, it takes time. I wasn’t there long enough to do it. But there are instances where red flags were raised very early on in certain agencies and I’ve requested that information to come out and I hope that it will.”
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06…ified-hid/
“Somebody Cooked Up The Plot”: The Hunt For The Origins Of The Russia Collusion Narrative
Armed with subpoenas, Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., want to interrogate a slew of Obama-era intelligence and law enforcement officials hoping to identify who invented and sustained the bogus Russia collusion narrative that hampered Donald Trump’s early presidency.
And while Graham and Johnson aren’t exactly Sean Connery and Alec Baldwin, they and their GOP cohorts have a theory worthy of a Tom Clancy novel-turned-movie: The Russia collusion investigation was really a plot by an outgoing administration to thwart the new president.
“What we had was a very quiet insurrection that took place,” Sen. Marsha Blackburn, the Tennessee Republican, told Just the News on Thursday as she described the theory of Senate investigators. “And there were probably dozens of people at DOJ and FBI that knew what was going on.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“But they hate Donald Trump so much … that they were willing to work under the cloak of law and try to use that to shield them so that they could take an action on their disgust,” she added. “They wanted to prohibit him from being president. And when he won, they wanted to render him ineffective at doing his job.”
For much of the last two years, the exact theory that congressional Republicans held about the bungled, corrupt Russia probe — where collusion between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was ultimately disproven and FBI misconduct was confirmed — was always evolving.
But after explosive testimony this week from former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who openly accused the FBI of keeping him in the dark about flaws, failures and exculpatory evidence in the case, the GOP believes it may prove the Russia case was a conspiracy to use the most powerful law enforcement and intelligence tools in America to harm Trump.
Two years of declassified memos are now in evidence that show:
The FBI was warned before it used Christopher Steele’s dossier as evidence to target the Trump campaign with a FISA warrant that the former British spy might be the target of Russian disinformation, that he despised Trump and that he was being paid to help Hillary Clinton’s campaign. But agents proceeded anyway.
The bureau was told by the CIA that its primary target, Trump adviser Carter Page, wasn’t a Russian spy but rather a CIA asset. But it hid that evidence from the DOJ and courts, even falsifying a document to keep the secret.
The FBI opened a case on Trump adviser George Papadopoulos on the suspicion he might arrange Russian dirt on Hillary Clinton but quickly determined he didn’t have the Russian contacts to pull it off. But the case kept going.
The FBI intercepted conversations between its informants and Papadopoulos and Page showing the two men made numerous statements of innocence, and kept that evidence from the DOJ and the courts.
The FBI investigated Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn for five months and concluded there was no derogatory evidence he committed a crime or posed an intelligence threat and recommended closing the case. But higher-ups overruled the decision and proceeded to interview Flynn.
The FBI and DOJ both knew by August 2017 there was no evidence of Trump-Russia collusion but allowed another 18 months of investigation to persist without announcing the president was innocent.
www.zerohedge.com/political/some…-narrative


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--Thank you Liberals for ensuring Trump will win in November

Trump doesn ’ t have to do sh*t when these Liberal f*cking retards are banging their hollow heads on the keyboard .
The Democratic party is “ frantic ” that an increasing number of black Americans are leaving the party to back President Donald Trump and Republicans in the November election , Former Oakland Raiders Super Bowl star and Republican candidate for Congress Burgess Owens explained to “ The Sara Carter Show ” on Thursday ’ s episode .
Right now , the party is “ frantic that they are going through they realize that the black people black vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carter adding that “ they try to do everything they can and they ’ re not going to get us back.
” Many Democrats have seized the opportunity of the tragic death of George Floyd and the anger that followed .
“ They will have to think outside of the emotions they have .
Then you destroy their family .
You make sure they don ’ t say anything about respect of anything .
No respect of God country , family , or women .
You take that .
That is a concoction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to understand is that they will continue to lie .
That ’ s what godless people do .
There ’ s no shame there ’ s no consciousness .
There ’ s no maybe I should apologize .
Their end game is power .
”

DeBlasio — I’m cutting funds for NYPD…
Trump doesn’t have to do sh*t when these Liberal f*cking retards are banging their hollow heads on the keyboard.
Sara Carter
The Democratic party is “frantic” that an increasing number of black Americans are leaving the party to back President Donald Trump and Republicans in the November election, Former Oakland Raiders Super Bowl star and Republican candidate for Congress Burgess Owens explained to “The Sara Carter Show” on Thursday’s episode.
Right now, the party is “frantic that they are going through they realize that the black people black vote is leaving them,” Owens told Carter adding that “they try to do everything they can and they’re not going to get us back.”
Many Democrats have seized the opportunity of the tragic death of George Floyd and the anger that followed. “They will have to think outside of the emotions they have. Then you destroy their family. You make sure they don’t say anything about respect of anything. No respect of God country, family, or women. You take that. That is a concoction for disaster. So what we have to understand is that they will continue to lie. That’s what godless people do. There’s no shame there’s no consciousness. There’s no maybe I should apologize. Their end game is power.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-10--Funny how you don’t see any concern of the Chinese Virus when it comes to George Floyd and Black Liv

Funny how you don’t see any concern of the Chinese Virus when it comes to George Floyd and Black Lives Matter on Reddit or the MSM. But when it comes to Trump they suddenly have concern.

Protests in the wake of George Floyd ’ s death in police custody have been carried out in every state @ @ @ @ @ small towns and large cities alike with gatherings of hundreds to thousands of people .
@ @ @ @ @ police estimated 15,000 people demonstrated .
And through it all , Democratic leaders like Michigan @ @ @ @ @ enforced some of the strictest lockdown orders in the country over coronavirus , all of @ @ @ @ @ really care about social distancing .
And the media who shamed Americans for protesting stay-at-home @ @ @ @ @ behind the demonstrations .
But now that President Trump announced rallies will resume this month @ @ @ @ @ about the pandemic again .

by Stevemagegod
Trump Announces Rallies Will Return — MSM Suddenly Remembers Covid Pandemic…
Protests in the wake of George Floyd’s death in police custody have been carried out in every state in the nation, in small towns and large cities alike with gatherings of hundreds to thousands of people. In Manhattan on Saturday, police estimated 15,000 people demonstrated. And through it all, Democratic leaders like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer who enforced some of the strictest lockdown orders in the country over coronavirus, all of a sudden seemed to not really care about social distancing. And the media who shamed Americans for protesting stay-at-home orders threw their full support behind the demonstrations.
But now that President Trump announced rallies will resume this month, the media suddenly cares about the pandemic again.
President Trump will hit the campaign trail this month — despite the deadly coronavirus pandemic, which continues to impact the lives and livelihoods of households across the country. "The rallies will be tremendous," a campaign manager said. t.co/hZ1nV45d00 — NPR (@NPR) June 9, 2020
twitter.com/roddreher/status/1270163588171419655