investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Keith Weiner: The ‘Out’ Has Not Yet Begun To ‘Fall’

So , the stock market has dropped .
Every government in the world has responded to the coronavirus with drastic , if not unprecedented , violations of the rights of the people .
Not to mention , extremely aggressive monetary policy .
And , they are about to unleash massive fiscal stimulus as well ( for example , the United States government is about to dole out over $ 2 trillion worth of loot ) .
The question on everyone ’ s mind is what will be the consequences ?
The standard analysis is that governments will print massive amounts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of course , cause massive inflation ( i.e.
, skyrocketing consumer prices ) .
There ’ s just one problem with this analysis .
One price to look at is crude oil .
Crude oil is now so cheap , you ’ d have to go back as far as 2002—before the last 18 years of massive money printing—to see the price this low .
Many analysts , not to mention chart followers , expect that the price will go even lower .
Copper is within a few cents of breaking down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And , wheat , while it ’ s not breaking down to a new low at the moment , is , at best , in a moribund pattern at a relatively low level .
The fact is : governments aren ’ t printing ; they ’ re borrowing .
And , debt does not behave the same way as free gifted money .
So , moving on from this Ptolemaic notion ( Ptolemy proposed that the earth was the center of the universe , with the sun and planets orbiting around it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observations and then develop our logic and see where it leads .
We mentioned that governments have enacted draconian controls which have curtailed and even shut down major sectors of the economy .
For example , in the United States right now , all the restaurants , bars , night clubs , sports arenas , gyms , and many other businesses have been ordered to close .
Others , such as the airlines , may not have been ordered to close but are facing what must surely be a 95 % drop in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major mall here in Arizona voluntarily closed .
Whether due to lack of customers or fear of the virus , it doesn ’ t matter .
The first-order effect of these closures is felt by many vendors and service providers .
This includes wholesale food and beverage distributors , companies that service soft drink fountains and aircrafts , clothing and car manufacturers , etc .
Companies that you wouldn ’ t necessarily even think of , such as Airbnb , have already lost hundreds of millions of dollars .
Monetary Metals has our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Industrious is a competitor of WeWork ) .
As we look at the cleared-out offices of businesses who have already moved out , and the empty offices of most of the other businesses who haven ’ t cancelled their leases yet , we see the obvious problem that Industrious ( and WeWork ) are facing a dramatic drop in revenues .
The not-so-obvious problem ( though it ’ s been written about by other analysts before ) is that the coworking model has an extreme mismatch between asset and liability .
They have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space , plus loans on their expensive interior build-outs , but their tenants have short-term leases ( such as month-to-month ) .
These companies have not yet been tested in a significant downturn , and the world is about to find out just what will happen .
The obvious move by every restaurant , bar , and retail business is to call their landlords , the mall developers , and tell them , “ Your job is to bring people to our front door so we can convert them to customers and pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s coming to our door , so we have no revenues , and we ’ re not paying .
What are you going to do ?
Evict us and replace us with somebody who wants to pay rent in this environment ?
” The mall developers , in turn , will have no choice but to call up the banks and say , “ Sorry , we don ’ t have any revenues right now , so we can ’ t pay on our loans right now .
What are you going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else who wants to pay you in this environment ?
” Who will the banks call ?
Before we get to that , consider the millions of workers laid off from all of these afore-mentioned businesses .
This week , the unemployment number came out at over 3.3 million new claims .
This number is so gargantuan that it makes the worst of 2008 look but a ripple on a pond compared to the wall of water of a tsunami .
We expect more big unemployment numbers to come .
So far , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employees at least part of their normal paychecks , as a gesture of goodwill , but they will not be able to continue this for long .
These laid off workers will be calling their landlords , their credit card companies , auto , student loan , and home lenders , and telling them the same thing : “ we can ’ t pay.
” If the banks are forced to write down this enormous quantity of loans suddenly gone bad , if their balance sheets are blown full of such large holes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insolvent .
Even the behemoth JPMorgan Chase has but $ 260 billion in equity ( much of which is not liquid , let alone cash ) .
That will be insufficient to absorb the losses described above , the way a child ’ s sandcastle would be insufficient to stop a tsunami .
Speaking of tsunamis , walking in Scottsdale , Keith noticed the street sweepers out on the nearly-empty Scottsdale Road .
Our first thought is : this is silly , the streets hardly need sweeping .
Next , was hey shouldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expenses .
Then finally , they are about to face a total collapse in tax revenues , most of which comes from retail sales tax and property tax .
All cities and municipalities , and likely all states too , will face this massive revenue shortfall .
They have few choices .
They can cut spending , not likely especially not the pension obligations .
They can somehow try to extract more taxes from those businesses and residents who are not impacted by the economic shutdown , not likely .
Or they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonds will soon hit the market .
So now let ’ s lay out our logic .
One , irrevocable damage has already been done .
A large number of restaurants , bars , and retailers simply do not have the capital to withstand even a month of zero revenues .
JPMorgan found , in 2016 , that the median independent restaurant has enough cash to last just 16 days .
Soft drink fountain servicers and many other companies up and down many supply chains are in the same position .
These businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Their employees are jobless .
Two , as we are not political prognosticators , we will not attempt to predict what further economic controls governments may impose .
We simply observe that , if the case existed in mid-March to shut down these sectors of the economy because a virus is spreading through the population , that case will continue to exist for at least several more months ( if not a lot longer than that ) .
Three , the government will no more allow the banking system to collapse than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perish of starvation .
Therefore , the government will continue to spend whatever it takes to protect people from the consequences of this bust .
Four , this is the bust of the false boom created by the Fed and other central banks after the bust of 2008 .
True , the draconian response to the virus has catalyzed the bust and , certainly , made it worse .
But , the bust was already certain to come because of the colossal destruction of capital ( which we have been writing about for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bust comes at a time of massive leverage .
A business without debt may be resilient , but a business leveraged up to its eyeballs is brittle .
Five , the problem with paying all of these newly-unemployed people is that it comes from the capital of people in businesses who are still solvent .
This is the bare naked essence of socialism : it converts capital to income , which is spent .
It consumes the seed corn .
And , now , this process will accelerate massively .
Six , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added to already-oversized government spending that , according to the U.S. Treasury , was about $ 1.5 trillion more than government tax revenues ( though , by some accounting gimmick , the official deficit number is quoted much lower than that ) .
So , we will have an annual deficit now approaching $ 4 trillion , but it gets worse .
Tax revenues will fall massively .
So , the deficit may turn out to be $ 5 trillion or more .
Back in 2016 , when Donald Trump was elected President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called “ $ 20 Trillion Trump ” for the amount that the debt increased on his watch ( assuming an 8-year term ) .
That may have seemed preposterous at the time , but we ’ re now tracking for that result .
Seven , many industries will be deemed essential , which is , of course , a political distinction .
Industries deemed essential will be given whatever subsidies necessary for them to continue to operate in the face of stupefying losses .
For example , the people will not countenance shutting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand a solution ( a subsidy ) .
Eight , going back to the banks , they will need massive injections of capital ( i.e.
, subsidies ) and/or further alterations to time-honored principles of accounting .
Do you remember when , back in spring of 2009 , the Financial Accounting Standards Board changed the rule and said banks no longer had to mark their assets to market .
That means , if a bank had an asset with a $ 500,000 market price , it could still keep it on its books @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Remember that this accounting rule change caused the end of the bear market and brought about the longest bull market in history , which has now recently ended .
In other words , the banks will either need subsidies equal to the value of all the loans that will default in this bust , or they will need the right to publish financial statements that mislead investors into thinking that they have not suffered the losses that they have , in fact , suffered ( which would have other consequences ) .
Nine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subsidize the banks is for the Fed to buy the bad loans from the banks at full price .
Perhaps the political calculus might determine it would be easier for the Fed to conceal the defaulted loans in its portfolio than for the commercial banks .
However , there ’ s a risk .
If the Fed renders itself insolvent with assets less than liabilities , or , perhaps more importantly , with negative net interest margin , the Fed could enter into a death spiral .
This will be when the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t print , it borrows ) not to buy good assets but to finance the negative cash flow .
Ten , another distinct possibility is that the government directly injects equity capital into the banks ( i.e.
, buys a large share holding or even majority of the banks ) .
This is not only a major step forward towards outright government ownership of the corporations and it is also a way to create a zombie banking system .
This will be when the banks are managed by the government , perpetually on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unable to perform their primary function which is financial intermediation .
This is how Japan has had several lost decades so far .
Eleven , speaking of government ownership of the means of production and zombies , the government ’ s subsidies of industries such as aircraft manufacturers and airline service will provide additional examples of both .
Twelve , we ’ re now going to make a call , for the first time , for certain consumer prices to rise .
This call is absolutely , positively not based on rising quantity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three things .
First , as we said in item number one above , many vendors and service providers in many supply chains will be ruined .
This will make manufacture and distribution of consumer products less efficient , slower , and more expensive .
Second , the government will be ordering , or in many cases outright owning , the means of production .
We see this already with President Trump ordering General Motors to manufacture ventilators , a product with which GM certainly has no experience , expertise , or efficiency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying that government-directed production is expensive ( and , of low quality ) .
Low quality , it should be noted , itself makes things more expensive for everybody .
Third , in the new normal that is to come , there will simply be fewer restaurants and fewer stores of every type who remain in business .
Lessened competition will enable the survivors to charge higher prices .
There ’ s a lot more that we could say , but we ’ ll stop here , as thirteen is an unlucky number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the gold market and the incredible skyrocketing of the gold basis .
Recall that to profit from a high basis , which also has the effect of compressing it , one needs only credit .
Anyone who can borrow at near zero interest rates can buy a gold bar , sell a future , store the bar for a few months , and pocket 5 % annualized .
The more we think about the ideas we discussed this week in Gold ’ s Gone Wild !
, it reinforces that ( not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Zugzwang above ) gold is not scarce to the market at the moment .
That said , we refine what we said on Wednesday in ascribing the extraordinarily high basis , not to extraordinarily high abundance of gold to the market , but to the extraordinary scarcity of credit to the banks .
As we just said , one needs only credit to make this guaranteed fat profit .
And , yet , the banks are manifestly not taking the profit .
If the banks aren ’ t zombies yet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process .
Thus , we ’ re not inclined to believe our own Monetary Metals Gold Fundamental Price currently showing as $ 1,116 .
If the banks can ’ t get the credit to take the fat and risk-free gold carry trade , then they ’ re certainly not able to lend to home and car buyers and business borrowers .
The problems that will come from this have yet to be felt .
As , right now , few people have any desire to borrow to buy a car or house , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expand .
Of course , this relative abundance of gold to the market—but not that abundant—occurs against the backdrop of the subsidies and capital consumption described above , which will be both massive and perpetual .
There is , of course , a finite limit to how much capital is available for the government to consume in order to keep up the pretense that its prior boom has not impoverished the people .
When that capital runs out , things will break ( but , that ’ s an article for another day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market will also run out ( but , today is not that day ) .
Right now , is a tug-of-war between those buying gold to avoid the consumption of their capital and those forced to sell gold to stay solvent despite the forces of credit contraction .
The former will win , as there are only so many of the latter .
This , by the way , puts a fine point on Monetary Metals ’ mission to move to the gold standard .
The principal virtue of the gold standard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in stasis , it ’ s to keep the government from consuming all the capital .
It should be remembered that the government has free reign to use its irredeemable currency to consume capital because the saver is disenfranchised .
Irredeemable means you can ’ t present the paper currency for redemption and take your money ( i.e.
, gold ) out of the bank .
But , that very feature of the gold standard—that an unwilling saver can withdraw his money entirely—means that credit is a voluntary transaction which occurs if and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Credit is not granted in gold under any other circumstances ( which is why the government can not retroactively declare that the dollar is once again fixed to gold ) .
Below is a graph of the bid-ask spread in gold for Friday , March 27 .
Normally , the spread is $ 0.20 , but we see several spikes here approaching $ 20 .
That ’ s about 100 times too big .
This would be another indication of extreme credit stress .
Would-be market makers may be unable to fund @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a graph showing the gold basis .
Yes , there is really a 5 % ( annualized ) profit to carry gold for June .
We can only reiterate that , to take this profit , all you need is credit .
Let ’ s add one additional thought to the idea we stated above that gold is abundant , but not that abundant .
The high basis may not be indicative of the absolute level of gold ’ s abundance to the market .
However , it does show the direction of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher price of gold futures compared to the price of gold metal .
It ’ s important to note that , if the pressure were in the other direction , credit would not matter , there would be no gold carry trade opportunity , and the basis would be negative .
In such case , we would be writing about gold ’ s scarcity and seeking for explanations as to why no one was taking the risk-free gold decarry trade .
As is often the case , what ’ s true for gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more extreme .
We won ’ t even tell you what our calculated Monetary Metals Silver Fundamental Price is right now !
Let ’ s just say , take it with a grain of salt .

by Keith Weiner of Monetary-Metals
So, the stock market has dropped. Every government in the world has responded to the coronavirus with drastic, if not unprecedented, violations of the rights of the people. Not to mention, extremely aggressive monetary policy. And, they are about to unleash massive fiscal stimulus as well (for example, the United States government is about to dole out over $2 trillion worth of loot).
The question on everyone’s mind is what will be the consequences?
The standard analysis is that governments will print massive amounts of money. And, this will, of course, cause massive inflation (i.e., skyrocketing consumer prices). There’s just one problem with this analysis.
Reality.
One price to look at is crude oil. Crude oil is now so cheap, you’d have to go back as far as 2002—before the last 18 years of massive money printing—to see the price this low. Many analysts, not to mention chart followers, expect that the price will go even lower.
Copper is within a few cents of breaking down to a low not seen since 2009. And, wheat, while it’s not breaking down to a new low at the moment, is, at best, in a moribund pattern at a relatively low level.
The fact is: governments aren’t printing; they’re borrowing. And, debt does not behave the same way as free gifted money.
So, moving on from this Ptolemaic notion (Ptolemy proposed that the earth was the center of the universe, with the sun and planets orbiting around it), let’s make some observations and then develop our logic and see where it leads.
We mentioned that governments have enacted draconian controls which have curtailed and even shut down major sectors of the economy. For example, in the United States right now, all the restaurants, bars, night clubs, sports arenas, gyms, and many other businesses have been ordered to close. Others, such as the airlines, may not have been ordered to close but are facing what must surely be a 95% drop in revenues. All the stores in the major mall here in Arizona voluntarily closed. Whether due to lack of customers or fear of the virus, it doesn’t matter.
The first-order effect of these closures is felt by many vendors and service providers. This includes wholesale food and beverage distributors, companies that service soft drink fountains and aircrafts, clothing and car manufacturers, etc. Companies that you wouldn’t necessarily even think of, such as Airbnb, have already lost hundreds of millions of dollars.
Monetary Metals has our offices in an Industrious coworking space (Industrious is a competitor of WeWork). As we look at the cleared-out offices of businesses who have already moved out, and the empty offices of most of the other businesses who haven’t cancelled their leases yet, we see the obvious problem that Industrious (and WeWork) are facing a dramatic drop in revenues. The not-so-obvious problem (though it’s been written about by other analysts before) is that the coworking model has an extreme mismatch between asset and liability. They have a long-term mortgage or lease on the space, plus loans on their expensive interior build-outs, but their tenants have short-term leases (such as month-to-month). These companies have not yet been tested in a significant downturn, and the world is about to find out just what will happen.
The obvious move by every restaurant, bar, and retail business is to call their landlords, the mall developers, and tell them, “Your job is to bring people to our front door so we can convert them to customers and pay rent. Right now, no one’s coming to our door, so we have no revenues, and we’re not paying. What are you going to do? Evict us and replace us with somebody who wants to pay rent in this environment?”
The mall developers, in turn, will have no choice but to call up the banks and say, “Sorry, we don’t have any revenues right now, so we can’t pay on our loans right now. What are you going to do? Foreclose and find somebody else who wants to pay you in this environment?”
Who will the banks call?
Before we get to that, consider the millions of workers laid off from all of these afore-mentioned businesses. This week, the unemployment number came out at over 3.3 million new claims. This number is so gargantuan that it makes the worst of 2008 look but a ripple on a pond compared to the wall of water of a tsunami. We expect more big unemployment numbers to come. So far, many companies are choosing to pay their employees at least part of their normal paychecks, as a gesture of goodwill, but they will not be able to continue this for long. These laid off workers will be calling their landlords, their credit card companies, auto, student loan, and home lenders, and telling them the same thing: “we can’t pay.”
If the banks are forced to write down this enormous quantity of loans suddenly gone bad, if their balance sheets are blown full of such large holes, then the banks are surely all insolvent.
Even the behemoth JPMorgan Chase has but $260 billion in equity (much of which is not liquid, let alone cash). That will be insufficient to absorb the losses described above, the way a child’s sandcastle would be insufficient to stop a tsunami.
Speaking of tsunamis, walking in Scottsdale, Keith noticed the street sweepers out on the nearly-empty Scottsdale Road. Our first thought is: this is silly, the streets hardly need sweeping. Next, was hey shouldn’t they be cutting back on expenses. Then finally, they are about to face a total collapse in tax revenues, most of which comes from retail sales tax and property tax.
All cities and municipalities, and likely all states too, will face this massive revenue shortfall. They have few choices. They can cut spending, not likely especially not the pension obligations. They can somehow try to extract more taxes from those businesses and residents who are not impacted by the economic shutdown, not likely. Or they can borrow more. A wall of municipal bonds will soon hit the market.
So now let’s lay out our logic. One, irrevocable damage has already been done. A large number of restaurants, bars, and retailers simply do not have the capital to withstand even a month of zero revenues. JPMorgan found, in 2016, that the median independent restaurant has enough cash to last just 16 days. Soft drink fountain servicers and many other companies up and down many supply chains are in the same position. These businesses are finished. Their debts are defaulted. Their employees are jobless.
Two, as we are not political prognosticators, we will not attempt to predict what further economic controls governments may impose. We simply observe that, if the case existed in mid-March to shut down these sectors of the economy because a virus is spreading through the population, that case will continue to exist for at least several more months (if not a lot longer than that).
Three, the government will no more allow the banking system to collapse than it will allow millions of people to perish of starvation. Therefore, the government will continue to spend whatever it takes to protect people from the consequences of this bust.
Four, this is the bust of the false boom created by the Fed and other central banks after the bust of 2008. True, the draconian response to the virus has catalyzed the bust and, certainly, made it worse. But, the bust was already certain to come because of the colossal destruction of capital (which we have been writing about for many years). Further, this bust comes at a time of massive leverage. A business without debt may be resilient, but a business leveraged up to its eyeballs is brittle.
Five, the problem with paying all of these newly-unemployed people is that it comes from the capital of people in businesses who are still solvent. This is the bare naked essence of socialism: it converts capital to income, which is spent. It consumes the seed corn. And, now, this process will accelerate massively.
Six, this fresh $2 trillion stimulus will be added to already-oversized government spending that, according to the U.S. Treasury, was about $1.5 trillion more than government tax revenues (though, by some accounting gimmick, the official deficit number is quoted much lower than that). So, we will have an annual deficit now approaching $4 trillion, but it gets worse. Tax revenues will fall massively. So, the deficit may turn out to be $5 trillion or more. Back in 2016, when Donald Trump was elected President, we predicted that he would be called “$20 Trillion Trump” for the amount that the debt increased on his watch (assuming an 8-year term). That may have seemed preposterous at the time, but we’re now tracking for that result.
Seven, many industries will be deemed essential, which is, of course, a political distinction. Industries deemed essential will be given whatever subsidies necessary for them to continue to operate in the face of stupefying losses. For example, the people will not countenance shutting down the airline industry. They will demand a solution (a subsidy).
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Eight, going back to the banks, they will need massive injections of capital (i.e., subsidies) and/or further alterations to time-honored principles of accounting. Do you remember when, back in spring of 2009, the Financial Accounting Standards Board changed the rule and said banks no longer had to mark their assets to market. That means, if a bank had an asset with a $500,000 market price, it could still keep it on its books as a $1 million asset. Remember that this accounting rule change caused the end of the bear market and brought about the longest bull market in history, which has now recently ended.
Pepperidge Farm remembers…
In other words, the banks will either need subsidies equal to the value of all the loans that will default in this bust, or they will need the right to publish financial statements that mislead investors into thinking that they have not suffered the losses that they have, in fact, suffered (which would have other consequences).
Nine, one way for the government to subsidize the banks is for the Fed to buy the bad loans from the banks at full price. Perhaps the political calculus might determine it would be easier for the Fed to conceal the defaulted loans in its portfolio than for the commercial banks. However, there’s a risk. If the Fed renders itself insolvent with assets less than liabilities, or, perhaps more importantly, with negative net interest margin, the Fed could enter into a death spiral. This will be when the Fed is borrowing (the Fed doesn’t print, it borrows) not to buy good assets but to finance the negative cash flow.
Ten, another distinct possibility is that the government directly injects equity capital into the banks (i.e., buys a large share holding or even majority of the banks). This is not only a major step forward towards outright government ownership of the corporations and it is also a way to create a zombie banking system. This will be when the banks are managed by the government, perpetually on the edge of insolvency, and hence unable to perform their primary function which is financial intermediation. This is how Japan has had several lost decades so far.
Eleven, speaking of government ownership of the means of production and zombies, the government’s subsidies of industries such as aircraft manufacturers and airline service will provide additional examples of both.
Twelve, we’re now going to make a call, for the first time, for certain consumer prices to rise. This call is absolutely, positively not based on rising quantity of money. It is based on three things. First, as we said in item number one above, many vendors and service providers in many supply chains will be ruined. This will make manufacture and distribution of consumer products less efficient, slower, and more expensive. Second, the government will be ordering, or in many cases outright owning, the means of production. We see this already with President Trump ordering General Motors to manufacture ventilators, a product with which GM certainly has no experience, expertise, or efficiency in producing. It should go without saying that government-directed production is expensive (and, of low quality). Low quality, it should be noted, itself makes things more expensive for everybody. Third, in the new normal that is to come, there will simply be fewer restaurants and fewer stores of every type who remain in business. Lessened competition will enable the survivors to charge higher prices.
There’s a lot more that we could say, but we’ll stop here, as thirteen is an unlucky number. Instead, let’s segue to the gold market and the incredible skyrocketing of the gold basis.
Recall that to profit from a high basis, which also has the effect of compressing it, one needs only credit. Anyone who can borrow at near zero interest rates can buy a gold bar, sell a future, store the bar for a few months, and pocket 5% annualized.
The more we think about the ideas we discussed this week in Gold’s Gone Wild!, it reinforces that (not withstanding what we said about the Fed’s Zugzwang above) gold is not scarce to the market at the moment. That said, we refine what we said on Wednesday in ascribing the extraordinarily high basis, not to extraordinarily high abundance of gold to the market, but to the extraordinary scarcity of credit to the banks.
As we just said, one needs only credit to make this guaranteed fat profit. And, yet, the banks are manifestly not taking the profit.
If the banks aren’t zombies yet, they may be rapidly undergoing the zombification process.
Thus, we’re not inclined to believe our own Monetary Metals Gold Fundamental Price currently showing as $1,116.
If the banks can’t get the credit to take the fat and risk-free gold carry trade, then they’re certainly not able to lend to home and car buyers and business borrowers. The problems that will come from this have yet to be felt. As, right now, few people have any desire to borrow to buy a car or house, and few businesses want to borrow to expand.
Of course, this relative abundance of gold to the market—but not that abundant—occurs against the backdrop of the subsidies and capital consumption described above, which will be both massive and perpetual. There is, of course, a finite limit to how much capital is available for the government to consume in order to keep up the pretense that its prior boom has not impoverished the people. When that capital runs out, things will break (but, that’s an article for another day).
Gold’s abundance to the market will also run out (but, today is not that day).
Right now, is a tug-of-war between those buying gold to avoid the consumption of their capital and those forced to sell gold to stay solvent despite the forces of credit contraction. The former will win, as there are only so many of the latter.
This, by the way, puts a fine point on Monetary Metals’ mission to move to the gold standard. The principal virtue of the gold standard isn’t to keep consumer prices in stasis, it’s to keep the government from consuming all the capital. It should be remembered that the government has free reign to use its irredeemable currency to consume capital because the saver is disenfranchised. Irredeemable means you can’t present the paper currency for redemption and take your money (i.e., gold) out of the bank. But, that very feature of the gold standard—that an unwilling saver can withdraw his money entirely—means that credit is a voluntary transaction which occurs if and only if both parties stand to gain. Credit is not granted in gold under any other circumstances (which is why the government cannot retroactively declare that the dollar is once again fixed to gold).
Below is a graph of the bid-ask spread in gold for Friday, March 27.
Normally, the spread is $0.20, but we see several spikes here approaching $20. That’s about 100 times too big.
This would be another indication of extreme credit stress. Would-be market makers may be unable to fund their typical gold positions.
Below is a graph showing the gold basis.
Yes, there is really a 5% (annualized) profit to carry gold for June. We can only reiterate that, to take this profit, all you need is credit.
Let’s add one additional thought to the idea we stated above that gold is abundant, but not that abundant. The high basis may not be indicative of the absolute level of gold’s abundance to the market. However, it does show the direction of the market’s pressure—i.e., a higher price of gold futures compared to the price of gold metal.
It’s important to note that, if the pressure were in the other direction, credit would not matter, there would be no gold carry trade opportunity, and the basis would be negative. In such case, we would be writing about gold’s scarcity and seeking for explanations as to why no one was taking the risk-free gold decarry trade.
As is often the case, what’s true for gold is true for silver, but even more extreme. We won’t even tell you what our calculated Monetary Metals Silver Fundamental Price is right now! Let’s just say, take it with a grain of salt.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Something Bigger is Happening

Something Bigger is Happening

*Neighbors encouraged to tell on their neighbors to the proper authorities .
www.clarkcountytoday.com/business/gov-jay-inslee-asks-washington-residents-to-report-those-violating-stay-at-home-order/ *People being followed with drones & publicly @ @ @ @ @ Together ” as if that ’ s acceptable to the human psyche & spirit *States @ @ @ @ @ close any churches or places of worship not in compliance www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/nyc-mayor-threatens-permanent-closure-of-churches-defying-coronavirus-ban-64073 www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/gun-owners-groups-sued-la-county-sheriff-and-california-governor-over-gun-shops-closures-citing-2nd-amendment % 3f_amp=true *** @ @ @ @ @ different links and edited due to the fact that I posted AMP Google links unintentionally @ @ @ @ @ you in your home .
Isolate you from your neighbors , take away your guns @ @ @ @ @ means necessary , and take away your job .
Tell me again this is because @ @ @ @ @ is NOT the world I want to live in .
Welcome to Hunger Games May @ @ @ @ @ .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the @ @ @ @

by birdlady27
*Neighbors encouraged to tell on their neighbors to the proper authorities. www.clarkcountytoday.com/business/gov-jay-inslee-asks-washington-residents-to-report-those-violating-stay-at-home-order/
*People being followed with drones & publicly shamed
www.popularmechanics.com/technology/a31708776/police-drones-social-distancing-coronavirus/
slogans “Alone Together” as if that’s acceptable to the human psyche & spirit
deadline.com/video/coronavirus-social-distancing-psa-alonetogether-mtv-comedy-central-viacomcbs/
*States threatening to “permanently” close any churches or places of worship not in compliance www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/nyc-mayor-threatens-permanent-closure-of-churches-defying-coronavirus-ban-64073
*Military mobilizing troops & tanks
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www.rt.com/usa/484389-military-underground-bunkers-coronavirus/
truepundit.com/shock-video-hundreds-of-army-tanks-in-downtown-l-a-yall-better-get-ready-they-about-to-do-some-sht-to-us/
www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-national-guard-lockdown-shelter-in-place-20200320-fs6neznkx5hindebnwmwsjlyc4-story.html
Governments attempting to close gun shops
www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/gun-owners-groups-sued-la-county-sheriff-and-california-governor-over-gun-shops-closures-citing-2nd-amendment%3f_amp=true *** four articles were changed to different links and edited due to the fact that I posted AMP Google links unintentionally ***
They want to lock you in your home. Isolate you from your neighbors, take away your guns. Track you by any means necessary, and take away your job. Tell me again this is because of a virus.
This is NOT the world I want to live in. Welcome to Hunger Games May the odds be with you.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro says that: “Coronavirus crisis is a media trick”

He ’ s somewhat a geopolitical outsider .
So does Jair Bolsonaro know the truth ?
Is it all a @ @ @ @ @ ?
VIDEO : Army National Guardsman “ It ’ s the flu !
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m in the tents with them !
”

He’s somewhat a geopolitical outsider. So does Jair Bolsonaro know the truth? Is it all a ‘media trick’ afterall?
VIDEO: Army National Guardsman “It’s the flu! It’s the flu!… I’m in the tents with them!”
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BREAKING VIDEO: Army National Guardsman tells @Project_Veritas #COVID19 Media Coverage Overblown: “It’s the flu! It’s the flu!… I’m in the tents with them! Insiders send tips: veritastips@protonmail.com#BeBrave pic.twitter.com/mASpv5sgqw — James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) March 31, 2020
RP


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--SCOTT ADAMS: BREAKING: CDC is mulling the idea of not lying to the public about mask effectiveness a

SCOTT ADAMS: BREAKING: CDC is mulling the idea of not lying to the public about mask effectiveness anymore. #coronavirus

This has always bothered me from the beginning…I have been in the healthcare industry for 30 years and wearing a @ @ @ @ @ my life..Also when kids were little and sick or hubby or me wearing a mask @ @ @ @ @ dont protect you , is like saying clean hands dont protect you .

BREAKING: CDC is mulling the idea of not lying to the public about mask effectiveness anymore. #coronavirus t.co/36GCmwpinI — Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) March 31, 2020
This has always bothered me from the beginning…I have been in the healthcare industry for 30 years and wearing a mask with each patient saved my life..Also when kids were little and sick or hubby or me wearing a mask in home worked..
Saying masks dont protect you, is like saying clean hands dont protect you.
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h/t –magabirdlady


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--The media is furious that President Trump said some medical equipment may be getting stolen, saying

The media is furious that President Trump said some medical equipment may be getting stolen, saying he’s making things up. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said exactly the same thing. No problem when he addresses these concerns though.

Here is a video of him saying it

by GunToast
Here is a video of him saying it
video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1244404708699234312/vid/1280×720/WBSJnNU_k8lgCaWh.mp4
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Brooklyn man arrested for hoarding masks, coughing on FBI agents
nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--British Households Told to Prepare for BLACKOUTS As Lockdown Goes On

British households have been told to prepare for blackouts by keeping torches and warm clothes handy as the lockdown continues @

British households have been told to prepare for blackouts by keeping torches and warm clothes handy as the lockdown continues!
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Learn More:
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--SPY below 205 by 4/17 and VIX to (atleast) 95 by the End of April

Here is the DD .
Here is a post made that shows the striking resemblance between the recent stock movements and the 1929 crash .
Interestingly , a 27 % drop from here would put us right at my support level ( i will get to that in a second ) .
Here we go .
My DD .
I have been for the most part ignoring DPI on this drop .
Historically it has been very accurate but on this drop it has been acting extremely wonky .
Big buys and big sells where they shouldn ’ t be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For this reason i haven ’ t been offering it more than a passing glance .
GEX however is crucial .
The lower GEX dips the more room we have to drop ( and the faster ) .
I expect some real violence in the market so I am keeping a very close eye on VIX .
You can clearly see how crucial of a zone this area is based on how price continuously hangs around this S/R level .
We have been rejecting it consistently and i believe we are on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If we follow the great depression chart a 27 % drop would put us at my 1850 ( right around my next crucial S/R level ) .
I see support kicking in somewhere around 1900 .
You can see the volume compressing as we prepare for the next big spike .
Chaikin is up to that critical zone of 0 and is breaking back negative now .
Price has been in a bear flag and consistently rejecting that 2630 level .
BB and kijun are adding pressure and pushing price down .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of the 4HR and BB have been squeezing for the big move down .
Volume breaking out chaikin breaking down , RSI breaking down , MACD breaking down .
Essentially all systems go .
CL is losing its battle with $ 20 support .
I have been saying it will go to 10 for awhile now and that is becoming more of a reality by the day .
/ES will follow….. 10 year treasury is on its last leg as well… .
VIX is looking pretty and holding support in the area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show but /VX 08′ is the top left , /VX bottom left is now , VIX top right is 08′ , VIX bottom right is now .
You can see the striking similarities and what will lead to the massive put buying that will launch VIX to 95 .
VIX and /VX comparison now vs 08′ Now i would like to make this call more interesting .
I wan na make a ban bet on this VIX portion of my play .
If VIX doesn ’ t touch 95 by the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ban from posting for every person who comments “ BAN ” .
However fair is fair , if VIX does touch 95 you get banned for an entire month .
Over one million of you and only one of me so i got ta even out the odds . )
This is a win-win scenario for me .
I don ’ t have to deal with everyone here who acts like an idiot if i lose and if i win i get a much quieter , much less stupider , subreddit for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
BONUS : Mods have to deal with the shit show that would be required to pull this off and everyone knows .
Mods are gay .
Have fun , good luck , AND CHANGE THE DAMN LOGO .
This is simply my opinion .
I am not your financial advisor and this is not meant for you to take as advice in order to position yourself in the market .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diligence .

by scarvesandsuspenders
Here is the DD.
imgur.com/G2eoTSs
Here is a post made that shows the striking resemblance between the recent stock movements and the 1929 crash.
Interestingly, a 27% drop from here would put us right at my support level (i will get to that in a second).
Here we go. My DD.
squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
I have been for the most part ignoring DPI on this drop. Historically it has been very accurate but on this drop it has been acting extremely wonky. Big buys and big sells where they shouldn’t be and not predicting the market correctly. For this reason i haven’t been offering it more than a passing glance.
GEX however is crucial. The lower GEX dips the more room we have to drop (and the faster). I expect some real violence in the market so I am keeping a very close eye on VIX.
/ES weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/t0ipbVoY/
You can clearly see how crucial of a zone this area is based on how price continuously hangs around this S/R level. We have been rejecting it consistently and i believe we are on the verge of breaking to a lower level. If we follow the great depression chart a 27% drop would put us at my 1850 (right around my next crucial S/R level). I see support kicking in somewhere around 1900.
/ES Daily:

/ES Daily
You can see the volume compressing as we prepare for the next big spike. Chaikin is up to that critical zone of 0 and is breaking back negative now. Price has been in a bear flag and consistently rejecting that 2630 level. BB and kijun are adding pressure and pushing price down.
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/ES 4HR

/ES 4hr
Here you can see the price break out of the 4HR and BB have been squeezing for the big move down. Volume breaking out chaikin breaking down, RSI breaking down, MACD breaking down. Essentially all systems go.
CL is losing its battle with $20 support. I have been saying it will go to 10 for awhile now and that is becoming more of a reality by the day. /ES will follow…..
10 year treasury is on its last leg as well….
VIX is looking pretty and holding support in the area. This will look like a shit show but /VX 08′ is the top left, /VX bottom left is now, VIX top right is 08′, VIX bottom right is now. You can see the striking similarities and what will lead to the massive put buying that will launch VIX to 95.

VIX and /VX comparison now vs 08′
Now i would like to make this call more interesting. I wanna make a ban bet on this VIX portion of my play. If VIX doesn’t touch 95 by the end of April i will take a one day ban from posting for every person who comments “BAN”. However fair is fair, if VIX does touch 95 you get banned for an entire month. Over one million of you and only one of me so i gotta even out the odds.)
This is a win-win scenario for me. I don’t have to deal with everyone here who acts like an idiot if i lose and if i win i get a much quieter, much less stupider, subreddit for a week (and hopefully a humbler one). BONUS: Mods have to deal with the shit show that would be required to pull this off and everyone knows. Mods are gay.
Have fun, good luck, AND CHANGE THE DAMN LOGO.
This is simply my opinion. I am not your financial advisor and this is not meant for you to take as advice in order to position yourself in the market.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Goldman Sachs: A Quarter of Annual Buyback Volume Has Been Yanked; Credit Suisse: Hedge Demand Shows

Goldman Sachs: A Quarter of Annual Buyback Volume Has Been Yanked; Credit Suisse: Hedge Demand Shows ‘No Faith in This Rally

A Quarter of Annual Buyback Volume Has Been Yanked , Goldman Says Cash-conserving companies continue to rein in buybacks .
Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows that almost 50 U.S. firms have suspended existing authorizations in the past two weeks , according to a note from its strategists .
The firm ’ s buyback desk estimates that $ 190 billion has… Hedge Demand Shows ‘ No Faith in This Rally , ’ Credit Suisse Says Investors are using the stock rally to reset hedges rather than chase upside , signaling little conviction in the rebound .
The S @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % from its March 23 close , after gaining in four of the last five days .
But it ’ s been a turbulent time… Norway ’ s $ 950 billion sovereign wealth fund — the world ’ s biggest — is about to make history as it prepares to liquidate assets to cover government withdrawals .
Barrack Says Real Estate Collapse Will Take Hold in April Real estate billionaire Tom Barrack , talks about the state of the commercial mortgage market and if the Federal Reserve is doing enough to help it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Bloomberg Markets .
”

Cash-conserving companies continue to rein in buybacks. Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows that almost 50 U.S. firms have suspended existing authorizations in the past two weeks, according to a note from its strategists. The firm’s buyback desk estimates that $190 billion has…
Investors are using the stock rally to reset hedges rather than chase upside, signaling little conviction in the rebound. The S&P 500 Index is up 17% from its March 23 close, after gaining in four of the last five days. But it’s been a turbulent time…
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Norway’s $950 billion sovereign wealth fund — the world’s biggest — is about to make history as it prepares to liquidate assets to cover government withdrawals.
Real estate billionaire Tom Barrack, talks about the state of the commercial mortgage market and if the Federal Reserve is doing enough to help it. He speaks to Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Neither the Fed nor the Treasury can bail out brick-and-mortar retailers.

Macy ’ s announced today that it would lay off “ the majority ” of its 123,000 employees after it had closed all its Macy ’ s , Bloomingdale ’ s and Bluemercury stores on March 18 .
Even before the lockdowns , its headcount was already down 17 % from four years ago , in line with the decline of its brick-and-mortar operations .
It said these stores would “ remain closed until we have clear line of sight on when it is safe to reopen.
” Whenever that may be .
But “ at least through May , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enrolled in its health benefits program “ will continue to receive coverage with the company covering 100 % of the premium.
” And it said , “ We expect to bring colleagues back on a staggered basis as business resumes.
” That is , business at these brick-and-mortar stores resumes .
Department stores have been on a 20-year downward spiral that has ended for many of them in bankruptcy court where they got dismembered and sold off in pieces .
The survivors , which have been shuttering their brick-and-mortar stores for years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The chart depicts the brick-and-mortar business that Macy ’ s , Nordstrom , Kohl ’ s , JCPenney , Neiman Marcus , Sears , Bon-Ton Stores , Barney ’ s and others are in – or were in .
Over the past 20 years , department store revenues declined by 43 % .
And now they ’ re getting whacked for good by the lockdowns .
That declining line of revenues is going to make a 90-degree downward kink in Q1 , Q2 and Q3 , to violate the WOLF STREET beer-bug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a Straight Line ” : Macy ’ s said today that its would continue .
Its online sales in 2019 were already 26 % of its total sales , according to its annual report .
According to eMarketer , Macy ’ s ecommerce business made it the seventh largest ecommerce retailer in the US in 2019 : As many brick-and-mortar stores have shut down , and as people are fearful about going to those stores that are still open ( such as grocery stores ) , ecommerce sales have exploded .
Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online .
But that has changed overnight .
Amazon , Walmart and other have gone on a hiring binge to deal with the onslaught of online buying , including the stuff people normally bought in grocery stores .
Online retail is the huge winner of COVID-19 .
When the Q1 and Q2 ecommerce revenues emerge , we will see a historic spike in online sales even as brick-and-mortar sales went straight to heck .
During the lockdown , even Macy ’ s remaining hard-core brick-and-mortar customers are going to get used to shopping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over , there won ’ t be a return to the “ old normal.
” It will be a New Normal in which Macy ’ s brick-and-mortar stores are largely irrelevant .
All major department store chains and many shopping malls have shut down .
Hundreds of thousands of employees have gotten laid off as retailers are trying to figure out where to go from here .
And they ’ re now pushing online to the max – because for them , that ’ s the only thing there is .
More department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counter , including JCPenney and Neiman Marcus .
All their stores are closed .
And ecommerce isn ’ t going to suffice for them .
Neiman Marcus is reportedly already in talks with creditors about filing for bankruptcy .
How many of these department stores and apparel stores will even reopen after the lockdown ?
That stimulus money being handed out by the truckload – and the retailers will gladly take what they can get – will do nothing to make brick-and-mortar department stores viable in the post-lockdown New Normal .
There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Kohl ’ s , JCPenney Neiman Marcus , and others will use the lockdowns as reason to not even reopen certain stores afterwards , and that there will be a pandemic of closed stores that remain closed after the lockdowns are over .
COVID-19 will speed up the inevitable process by a bunch of years .
It ’ s going to be a financial mess .
Stores are going to negotiate with landlords about not paying their rents , or just refuse to pay their rents , while their stores are under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out government-encouraged offers of forbearance from lenders or servicers to see if they can skip some mortgage payments since their tenants skipped lease payments .
Many of those loans have been packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities ( CMBS ) , and those CMBS are now facing default .
And this is where it gets messy .
When a CMBS loan defaults – or even when the loan hasn ’ t defaulted yet but when a mall backing a CMBS loses an anchor tenant , such as a department store – servicing gets switched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ special servicer.
” This is laid out in the pooling and servicing agreement ( PSA ) .
The special servicer ’ s job is to determine if the borrower can become current through a loan modification or a debt workout .
Under many PSAs , a special servicer has the right to purchase the property at a discount if that same special servicer decides the loan can not be brought current .
Even under normal circumstances , this invites self-dealing .
Retail-exposed CMBS have already been defaulting across the country .
Now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large scale .
Which is one of the reasons the CMBS market is in such turmoil , and why S & P began slashing the credit ratings of many CMBS with retail exposure , some of them by multiple notches , including one deal by nine notches .
And this is why the Fed and the Treasury and the Primary Dealers are now conspiring to bail out the CMBS market .
But they can not do a thing about the underlying dynamics – the previously gradual and now sudden shift to ecommerce .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ no matter how many bailout-trillions are being doled out .
The retailers will default on their leases , the mall mortgages will default , and the CMBS will default – no matter what the Fed does .
Many of these malls or stores can eventually be torn down and redeveloped into a mixed-use high rise or whatever ; but this will be by and for new investors .
And it won ’ t be of any benefit to the holders of the defaulted CMBS .

Macy’s announced today that it would lay off “the majority” of its 123,000 employees after it had closed all its Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury stores on March 18. Even before the lockdowns, its headcount was already down 17% from four years ago, in line with the decline of its brick-and-mortar operations. It said these stores would “remain closed until we have clear line of sight on when it is safe to reopen.”
Whenever that may be. But “at least through May,” the furloughed employees who were already enrolled in its health benefits program “will continue to receive coverage with the company covering 100% of the premium.” And it said, “We expect to bring colleagues back on a staggered basis as business resumes.” That is, if
business at these brick-and-mortar stores resumes.
Department stores have been on a 20-year downward spiral that has ended for many of them in bankruptcy court where they got dismembered and sold off in pieces. The survivors, which have been shuttering their brick-and-mortar stores for years, are now getting hit by the lockdowns.
The chart depicts the brick-and-mortar business that Macy’s, Nordstrom, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, Sears, Bon-Ton Stores, Barney’s and others are in – or were in. Over the past 20 years, department store revenues declined by 43%. And now they’re getting whacked for good by the lockdowns. That declining line of revenues is going to make a 90-degree downward kink in Q1, Q2 and Q3, to violate the WOLF STREET beer-bug dictum that “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line”:
Macy’s said today that its online sales would continue. Its online sales in 2019 were already 26% of its total sales, according to its annual report. According to eMarketer, Macy’s ecommerce business made it the seventh largest ecommerce retailer in the US in 2019:
Amazon eBay Walmart Apple Home Depot Best Buy Macy’s Qurate Retail Group (QVC, HSN, Zulily, Ballard Designs, Frontgate, Garnet Hill, and Grandin Road) Costco Wayfair
As many brick-and-mortar stores have shut down, and as people are fearful about going to those stores that are still open (such as grocery stores), ecommerce sales have exploded. Americans have long been reluctant to buy groceries online. But that has changed overnight.
Amazon, Walmart and other online retailers have gone on a hiring binge to deal with the onslaught of online buying, including the stuff people normally bought in grocery stores. Online retail is the huge winner of COVID-19. When the Q1 and Q2 ecommerce revenues emerge, we will see a historic spike in online sales even as brick-and-mortar sales went straight to heck.
During the lockdown, even Macy’s remaining hard-core brick-and-mortar customers are going to get used to shopping online. And when the lockdowns are over, there won’t be a return to the “old normal.” It will be a New Normal in which Macy’s brick-and-mortar stores are largely irrelevant.
All major department store chains and many shopping malls have shut down. Hundreds of thousands of employees have gotten laid off as retailers are trying to figure out where to go from here. And they’re now pushing online to the max – because for them, that’s the only thing there is.
More department stores have moseyed over to the bankruptcy-filing counter, including JCPenney and Neiman Marcus. All their stores are closed. And ecommerce isn’t going to suffice for them. Neiman Marcus is reportedly already in talks with creditors about filing for bankruptcy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
How many of these department stores and apparel stores will even reopen after the lockdown?
That stimulus money being handed out by the truckload – and the retailers will gladly take what they can get – will do nothing to make brick-and-mortar department stores viable in the post-lockdown New Normal .
There is a good chance that Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCPenney Neiman Marcus, and others will use the lockdowns as reason to not even reopen certain stores afterwards, and that there will be a pandemic of closed stores that remain closed after the lockdowns are over . COVID-19 will speed up the inevitable process by a bunch of years.
It’s going to be a financial mess.
Stores are going to negotiate with landlords about not paying their rents, or just refuse to pay their rents, while their stores are under lockdown. Landlords are going to check out government-encouraged offers of forbearance from lenders or servicers to see if they can skip some mortgage payments since their tenants skipped lease payments. Many of those loans have been packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and those CMBS are now facing default. And this is where it gets messy.
When a CMBS loan defaults – or even when the loan hasn’t defaulted yet but when a mall backing a CMBS loses an anchor tenant, such as a department store – servicing gets switched from the master servicer to a “special servicer.” This is laid out in the pooling and servicing agreement (PSA). The special servicer’s job is to determine if the borrower can become current through a loan modification or a debt workout. Under many PSAs, a special servicer has the right to purchase the property at a discount if that same special servicer decides the loan cannot be brought current. Even under normal circumstances, this invites self-dealing.
Retail-exposed CMBS have already been defaulting across the country. Now, this is likely to happen on a large scale. Which is one of the reasons the CMBS market is in such turmoil, and why S&P began slashing the credit ratings of many CMBS with retail exposure, some of them by multiple notches, including one deal by nine notches. And this is why the Fed and the Treasury and the Primary Dealers are now conspiring to bail out the CMBS market.
But they cannot do a thing about the underlying dynamics – the previously gradual and now sudden shift to ecommerce.
Those retailers will close their brick-and-mortar stores no matter how many bailout-trillions are being doled out. The retailers will default on their leases, the mall mortgages will default, and the CMBS will default – no matter what the Fed does.
Many of these malls or stores can eventually be torn down and redeveloped into a mixed-use high rise or whatever; but this will be by and for new investors. And it won’t be of any benefit to the holders of the defaulted CMBS.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--“There are pockets of stress in riskier credit that seem to be deepening, even with the Fed stepping

“There are pockets of stress in riskier credit that seem to be deepening, even with the Fed stepping in & buying higher-rated credit.”

Meanwhile, long-dated Ford bonds also falling to new lows today. I find this interesting because there are pockets of stress in riskier credit that seem to be deepening, even with the Fed stepping in & buying higher-rated credit. pic.twitter.com/gbCXwwPB0T — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 31, 2020
#liquidity
The banks provide financing facilities called warehouses, which CLO managers use to buy risky debt known as leveraged loans before they package and sell them as bonds. Wall Street banks have roughly $10-$12 billion of exposure to the warehouses.t.co/ZkIACRb0WE — Tim (@MillennialMacro) March 24, 2020
A credit hedge fund told clients it was suspending redemptions for the foreseeable future because it didn’t want to be a forced seller in what it called “dysfunctional” credit markets. t.co/Sgm4YA8ZpF — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 31, 2020
For a sense of how big some earnings surprises may still be in the face of Covid-19 disruptions, check out Envision Healthcare debt. @KatLeighDoherty reports that the company told investors it fully tapped its revolving credit line & may have negative earnings. Bond prices plunge pic.twitter.com/nf4erVWhSE — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 31, 2020
The Crash of 2020 pic.twitter.com/cCnMUEyubq — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) March 31, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Day 1 of Q2 & ended Q1 w/ a whimper & Q2 unlikely a bang.

a ) China PMI collapsed in February so sequential will be better but Q1 bad b ) Ex China Asian @ @ @ @ @ will soften further .
# Australian # manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Mar , led by @ @ @ @ @ new orders as # COVID-19 hit , according to latest # PMI .
Supply chains @ @ @ @ @ import restrictions and other anti-virus measures .
Read more : t.co/pSE3XyR1Hm pic.twitter.com/fzq9TyaxtG

a) China PMI collapsed in February so sequential will be better but Q1 bad b) Ex China Asian PMIs softening not collapsing & will soften further.
#Australian #manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Mar, led by record falls in output and new orders as #COVID-19 hit, according to latest #PMI. Supply chains came under great pressure amid import restrictions and other anti-virus measures. Read more: t.co/pSE3XyR1Hm pic.twitter.com/fzq9TyaxtG
— IHS Markit PMI™ (@IHSMarkitPMI) April 1, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--The coronavirus has pushed governments into uncharted territory in attempting to protect the economy

The coronavirus has pushed governments into uncharted territory in attempting to protect the economy .
A lot could go wrong @ @ @ @ @ is lifting but people in Wuhan are n't sure if they can trust Beijing 's @ @ @ @ @ passed .
t.co/XRyvTtVYUB Spain .
The economy was already weakening significantly before the coronavirus impact @ @ @ @ @ estimates and deficit ( 2.7 % ) above exp .
As death toll rises again @ @ @ @ @ massive , the economic impact will be severe and the fiscal disaster immense pic.twitter.com/kNMjGeV8R2

The coronavirus has pushed governments into uncharted territory in attempting to protect the economy. A lot could go wrong. t.co/5zFQ6SuVDC
The coronavirus lockdown is lifting but people in Wuhan aren't sure if they can trust Beijing's claims that the danger has passed. t.co/XRyvTtVYUB
Spain. The economy was already weakening significantly before the coronavirus impact. GDP today came below estimates and deficit (2.7%) above exp.
As death toll rises again, the social drama is massive, the economic impact will be severe and the fiscal disaster immense pic.twitter.com/kNMjGeV8R2
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 31, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--If he keeps pushing that printer my dollars will be cheaper than toilet paper

by SVXYstinks
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Visual representation of just how hard Powell is pushing the printer


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--The 11 Sectors of the Stock Market – ETFs For All

The stock market is often broken up into a few different categories that gives a general overall look at the economy .
With the markets recent crash , the next few months will have some great buying opportunities for a lot of industries .
One of the easiest ways to invest is through ETFs .
Below are some of the different industries that make up the entire economy .
I have listed some ETFs that I believe are some of the best ones for each category .
Check them out and let me know what other good ones I missed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manufacturers , software developers and information technology firms .
In general , these businesses are driven by upgrade cycles and the general health of the economy , although growth has been robust over the years .
The utilities sector consists of electric , gas and water companies as well as integrated providers .
In general , the sector generates consistent recurring income by charging consumers and businesses that provide higher-than-average dividend yields .
The healthcare sector consists of biotechnology companies , hospital management firms , medical device manufacturers and many others .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be both a growth opportunity and defensive play since people will always require medical aid .
The industrial sector consists of aerospace , defense , machinery , construction , fabrication and manufacturing companies .
In general , the industry ’ s growth is driven by demand for building construction and manufactured products like agricultural equipment .
The telecom sector consists of wireless providers , cable companies , internet service providers and satellite companies , among others .
In general , these companies generate recurring revenue from consumers , but some subsets of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy sector consists of oil and gas exploration and production companies , as well as integrated power firms , refineries and other operations .
In general , these companies generate revenue that ’ s tied to the price of crude oil , natural gas and other commodities .
The consumer staples sector consists of food and beverage companies as well as companies that create products consumers are unwilling to cut from their budgets .
In general , these companies are defensive plays capable of withstanding an economic downturn .
The materials sector consists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forestry and related companies that are focused on discovering and developing raw materials .
Since these companies are at the beginning of the supply chain , they are vulnerable to changes in the business cycle .
The consumer discretionary sector consists of retailers , media companies , consumer service providers , apparel companies and consumer durables .
In general , these companies benefit from an improving economy when consumer spending accelerates .
The financial sector consists of banks , investment funds , insurance companies and real estate firms , among others .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generated by the sector comes from mortgages and loans that gain value as interest rates rise .
The real estate sector consists of companies invested in residential , industrial , and retail real estate .
The main source of revenue for these companies comes from rent income and real estate capital appreciation .
As a result , this sector is sensitive to interest rate changes .
I plan on buying these ETFs every week after the next sell off 50/50 or 33/33/33 for each sector .
And allocating my total percents as : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : m1.finance/-30zYl69_AG0 Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Robo13
The stock market is often broken up into a few different categories that gives a general overall look at the economy. With the markets recent crash, the next few months will have some great buying opportunities for a lot of industries.
One of the easiest ways to invest is through ETFs. Below are some of the different industries that make up the entire economy. I have listed some ETFs that I believe are some of the best ones for each category. Check them out and let me know what other good ones I missed.
—————
— Technology —
The technology sector consists of electronics manufacturers, software developers and information technology firms. In general, these businesses are driven by upgrade cycles and the general health of the economy, although growth has been robust over the years.
First Trust Dow Jones Index ( $FDN )
$FDN Vanguard Information Tech Index ($VGT)
—————
— Utilities —
The utilities sector consists of electric, gas and water companies as well as integrated providers. In general, the sector generates consistent recurring income by charging consumers and businesses that provide higher-than-average dividend yields.
iShares S&P Global Infrastructure ETF ( $IGF )
$IGF Vanguard Utilities ETF ($VPU)
—————
— Healthcare —
The healthcare sector consists of biotechnology companies, hospital management firms, medical device manufacturers and many others. In general, the sector is considered to be both a growth opportunity and defensive play since people will always require medical aid.
iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF ( $IBB )
$IBB Vanguard Health Care ETF ($VHT)
—————
— Industrials —
The industrial sector consists of aerospace, defense, machinery, construction, fabrication and manufacturing companies. In general, the industry’s growth is driven by demand for building construction and manufactured products like agricultural equipment.
iShares Transportation Average ETF ( $IYT )
$IYT Vanguard Industrials ETF ($VIS)
—————
— Telecom —
The telecom sector consists of wireless providers, cable companies, internet service providers and satellite companies, among others. In general, these companies generate recurring revenue from consumers, but some subsets of the industry are facing rapid change.
iShares U.S. Telecommunications ( $IYZ )
$IYZ Vanguard Communication Services ($VOX)
—————
— Energy —
The energy sector consists of oil and gas exploration and production companies, as well as integrated power firms, refineries and other operations. In general, these companies generate revenue that’s tied to the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities.
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Alerian MLP ( $AMLP )
$AMLP Vanguard Energy ($VDE)
—————
— Consumer Staples —
The consumer staples sector consists of food and beverage companies as well as companies that create products consumers are unwilling to cut from their budgets. In general, these companies are defensive plays capable of withstanding an economic downturn.
First Trust Cons. Staples AlphaDEX ( $FXG )
$FXG Vanguard Consumer Staples ($VDC)
—————
— Materials —
The materials sector consists of mining, refining, chemical, forestry and related companies that are focused on discovering and developing raw materials. Since these companies are at the beginning of the supply chain, they are vulnerable to changes in the business cycle.
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ( $GDX )
$GDX iShares U.S. Home Construction ( $ITB )
$ITB Materials Select Sector SPDR ($XLB)
—————
— Consumer Discretionary —
The consumer discretionary sector consists of retailers, media companies, consumer service providers, apparel companies and consumer durables. In general, these companies benefit from an improving economy when consumer spending accelerates.
Vanguard Consumer Discretion ($VCR)
—————
— Financials —
The financial sector consists of banks, investment funds, insurance companies and real estate firms, among others. In general, the majority of the revenue generated by the sector comes from mortgages and loans that gain value as interest rates rise.
SPDR S&P Bank ( $KBE )
$KBE Vanguard Financials ($VFH)
—————
— Real Estate —
The real estate sector consists of companies invested in residential, industrial, and retail real estate. The main source of revenue for these companies comes from rent income and real estate capital appreciation. As a result, this sector is sensitive to interest rate changes.
Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF ( $VNQI )
$VNQI Schwab US REIT ( $SCHH )
$SCHH Vanguard Real Estate ($VNQ)
—————
I plan on buying these ETFs every week after the next sell off 50/50 or 33/33/33 for each sector. And allocating my total percents as:
Technology – 25%
Utilities – 18%
Healthcare – 16%
Industrials – 10%
Telecom – 10%
Energy – 9%
Consumer Staples – 3%
Materials – 3%
Consumer Discretionary – 2%
Financials – 2%
Real Estate – 2%
M1 Finance Pie with all this added: m1.finance/-30zYl69_AG0
Sources: etfdb.com/etf-education/the-10-sectors-of-the-stock-market/
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Moody’s global default outlook

Moody’s global default outlook

Moody ’ s cuts outlook on $ 6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to ‘ negative ’ Moody ’ s Investors Service has cut its outlook on corporate debt to negative , saying that an economy about to tip into recession because of the coronavirus will result in rising default rates .
The ratings agency warned that sectors “ most sensitive to consumer demand and sentiment ” will be especially hard-hit due to social distancing measures that slashed economic activity .
They include global passenger airlines , the lodging and cruise industries , and autos .
In addition , plummeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gas sector exposed , while banks also will face a challenging environment amid falling interest rates that eat into profitability and a deteriorating economy that will undermine credit quality .
“ The coronavirus will cause an unprecedented shock to the global economy , ” Edmond DeForest , senior credit officer at Moody ’ s , said in a report .
“ We have revised our growth forecasts downward for 2020 as the rising economic costs of the coronavirus shock and the policy responses to combat the downturn are becoming clearer .
Business activity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the first half of 2020.
” The warnings comes even after the Federal Reserve took the unusual step of saying it would be buying corporate debt as a way to keep liquidity flowing in a market that froze up after the government announced social distancing measures .

Moody’s cuts outlook on $6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to ‘negative’
Moody’s Investors Service has cut its outlook on corporate debt to negative, saying that an economy about to tip into recession because of the coronavirus will result in rising default rates.
The ratings agency warned that sectors “most sensitive to consumer demand and sentiment” will be especially hard-hit due to social distancing measures that slashed economic activity. They include global passenger airlines, the lodging and cruise industries, and autos.
In addition, plummeting energy prices will leave the oil and gas sector exposed, while banks also will face a challenging environment amid falling interest rates that eat into profitability and a deteriorating economy that will undermine credit quality.
“The coronavirus will cause an unprecedented shock to the global economy,” Edmond DeForest, senior credit officer at Moody’s, said in a report. “We have revised our growth forecasts downward for 2020 as the rising economic costs of the coronavirus shock and the policy responses to combat the downturn are becoming clearer. Business activity will likely fall sharply across advanced economies in the first half of 2020.”
The warnings comes even after the Federal Reserve took the unusual step of saying it would be buying corporate debt as a way to keep liquidity flowing in a market that froze up after the government announced social distancing measures.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Bix Weir: Alert! Quarter Ends And NOBODY Can Pay Rent, Bills Or Their Taxes ANYMORE!

by Bix Weir of Road to Roota Well , the first Quarter ends today and many will NOT be able @ @ @ @ @ due tomorrow .
And it ’ s going to LAST a long , long time @ @ @ @ @ LOW on $ you should save all money for essentials…and rent is not one of @ @ @ @

by Bix Weir of Road to Roota
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Well, the first Quarter ends today and many will NOT be able to even pay their rent due tomorrow. And it’s going to LAST a long, long time. If you are running LOW on $ you should save all money for essentials…and rent is not one of them for most!


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Captain of USS Theodore Roosevelt says more than 100 sailors on board have tested positive:Commander

Captain of USS Theodore Roosevelt says more than 100 sailors on board have tested positive:Commander asks for evacuation of sailors

EXCLUSIVE | Captain of aircraft carrier with growing coronavirus outbreak pleads for help from Navy. Story by @MGafni & @JoeGarofoli: t.co/IL4RnCYaVV pic.twitter.com/ZWJM4bYBCV — San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) March 31, 2020
It’s getting bad.
Commander of USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier asks for evacuation of sailors due to large #Covid19 outbreak t.co/jYjKVcojLl — Gregor Peter (@L0gg0l) March 31, 2020
Update: now 200
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Nearly 200 sailors on the US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for coronavirus
Quote Tweet
Nearly 200 sailors on the US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for coronavirus t.co/2sJJfAS9Tm — Steve Lookner (@lookner) March 31, 2020
h/t


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Treat all predictions by anybody with a huge grain of salt. Nobody knows anything

The more I read and observe the clearer the message : Nobody knows anything .
And by that I mean nobody truly knows how any of this will turn out and I think this point needs to be driven home more clearly .
Tons of projections of this , that and the other .
Just stop .
I happen to think there are times to simply step back and not make grand predictions .
For us that ’ s ok because we focus primarily on market technicals and that ’ s an ever evolving picture that offers us pivot points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engaged in .
But on the macro ?
Give me a break .
Nobody knows anything .
Everybody is just guessing .
Ok great .
How ’ s that helping anyone in trying to value companies , cash flow , revenues , earnings ?
It doesn ’ t .
-9 % is a completely different planet than -40 % and so is everything in between .
How does one qualify central bank and stimulus intervention ?
It changes every single day .
Today the Fed cranked out an international repo program .
Global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today Donald Trump tweeted about a $ 2 trillion infrastructure program .
Who knows if it will happen .
The Fed already increased its balance sheet by $ 1.3 trillion since the same time last year and may well be heading toward $ 9 or $ 10 trillion balance sheet position within a year .
Last week they added $ 600B , basically all of QE2 in a week .
These are insane numbers thrown around , all on top of the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package just passed .
What ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guess it depends on whether GDP drops by 40 % or 9 % .
Give me a break .
How do you make any forecasts that have a predictive meaning whatsoever in this environment ?
Other than a lucky guess , the answer is nobody .
Why ?
Because nobody knows anything .
Which is really no surprise because because nobody knew anything to begin with : What are the long term consequences of $ 4- $ 5 trillion in Fed intervention and perhaps $ 4 trillion in fiscal stimulus ( which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nobody knows .
The MMT crowd will tell you it won ’ t matter because debt doesn ’ t matter .
Well , we can all take a stab at a joke here : What irks me more than anything is the hypocrisy of it all .
Yes I could whine about politicians that once pretended to care about deficits but now no longer do , but that serves no purpose .
But the hypocrisy of Janet Yellen today is something else : Give me a break .
For years the likes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explosion and the consequences of which .
And now one of the key enablers ( may I even say architect ) of the entire cheap money construct that enabled all this debt explosion in the first place is now warning about high levels of corporate debt being possibly a bad thing ?
Too little , too late , and now they ’ re telling us all it ’ ll be fine .
More debt .
Yea , that ’ s the solution .
It ’ s worked so well so far .
Coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best and I , like everybody else , am hoping we will soon see the peak and it ’ s over by the summer and we can all recover .
And while Italy and China and South Korea appear to be slowing the US , the UK and others have yet to reach their peak .
And what does slowing really mean ?
That the virus is disappearing or just held at bay by our social distancing measures ?
If that ’ s the case then it may as well come back as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Do we have a cure ?
A vaccine ?
No , not yet .
Yes we can hope for the best and that one will be developed , but but it may also not come in time for the next season , if this virus turns out to be seasonal .
And if that ’ s case we get to do this all over again next year .
But many will have immunity ?
Sure , if the virus doesn ’ t mutate .
Lots of unknowns , lost of uncertainties and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : So treat all predictions by anybody with a huge grain of salt .
Nobody knows anything .

by northmantrader
The more I read and observe the clearer the message: Nobody knows anything. And by that I mean nobody truly knows how any of this will turn out and I think this point needs to be driven home more clearly.
Tons of projections of this, that and the other. Just stop. I happen to think there are times to simply step back and not make grand predictions. For us that’s ok because we focus primarily on market technicals and that’s an ever evolving picture that offers us pivot points to decide when and where to get engaged in.
But on the macro? Give me a break. Nobody knows anything. Everybody is just guessing.
Exhibit A: GDP forecast for Q2:
Ok great. How’s that helping anyone in trying to value companies, cash flow, revenues, earnings? It doesn’t. -9% is a completely different planet than -40% and so is everything in between.
How does one qualify central bank and stimulus intervention? It changes every single day. Today the Fed cranked out an international repo program. Global central banks unite I guess. Also today Donald Trump tweeted about a $2 trillion infrastructure program. Who knows if it will happen. The Fed already increased its balance sheet by $1.3 trillion since the same time last year and may well be heading toward $9 or $10 trillion balance sheet position within a year. Last week they added $600B, basically all of QE2 in a week.
These are insane numbers thrown around, all on top of the $2.2 trillion stimulus package just passed. What’s the deficit going to be? I guess it depends on whether GDP drops by 40% or 9%.
Give me a break. How do you make any forecasts that have a predictive meaning whatsoever in this environment? Other than a lucky guess, the answer is nobody. Why? Because nobody knows anything.
Which is really no surprise because because nobody knew anything to begin with:
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Crude to below $20
10 year to below 0.4%$SPX to below 2,200$VIX to 86 …had predicted nobody on Wall Street. Not even close. So take all predictions with a huge grain of salt.
Never stop thinking for yourself. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 30, 2020
What are the long term consequences of $4-$5 trillion in Fed intervention and perhaps $4 trillion in fiscal stimulus (which is short hand for more debt)?
Nobody knows. The MMT crowd will tell you it won’t matter because debt doesn’t matter.
Well, we can all take a stab at a joke here:
By the time this crisis is over. h/t @satoshidisco pic.twitter.com/LqnCHiSIoY — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 31, 2020
What irks me more than anything is the hypocrisy of it all. Yes I could whine about politicians that once pretended to care about deficits but now no longer do, but that serves no purpose.
But the hypocrisy of Janet Yellen today is something else:
"We've dumped rates into the gutter for the past 11 years and now we're complaining about too much corporate debt" – Fed geniuses. pic.twitter.com/N4VYzFQs8C — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 31, 2020
Give me a break. For years the likes of me have been warning about the debt explosion and the consequences of which. And now one of the key enablers (may I even say architect) of the entire cheap money construct that enabled all this debt explosion in the first place is now warning about high levels of corporate debt being possibly a bad thing?
Too little, too late, and now they’re telling us all it’ll be fine. More debt. Yea, that’s the solution. It’s worked so well so far.
Coronavirus? Sure we can hope for the best and I, like everybody else, am hoping we will soon see the peak and it’s over by the summer and we can all recover. And while Italy and China and South Korea appear to be slowing the US, the UK and others have yet to reach their peak. And what does slowing really mean? That the virus is disappearing or just held at bay by our social distancing measures? If that’s the case then it may as well come back as soon as we relent on these measures. Do we have a cure? A vaccine? No, not yet. Yes we can hope for the best and that one will be developed, but but it may also not come in time for the next season, if this virus turns out to be seasonal. And if that’s case we get to do this all over again next year. But many will have immunity? Sure, if the virus doesn’t mutate.
Lots of unknowns, lost of uncertainties and lots of predictions. My view fwiw:
If half predict a strong and quick recovery and the other half predict doom and gloom we may just end up in an extended period of massive chop, uncertainty and wide price ranges. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 31, 2020
So treat all predictions by anybody with a huge grain of salt. Nobody knows anything.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--FBI FISA SCAM: IG reports whopping 93% of FBI FISA applications FAIL basic compliance

And 99 % of the FISA warrant applications are rubber stamped approved .
What an absolutely sh*t show .
OIG FINDS WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS , LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN FBI AS 100 % OF REVIEWED FISA APPLICATIONS FOUND ERRORS AND OMISSIONS : “ The Office of the Inspector General ( OIG ) found errors in all 29 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act ( FISA ) warrant applications that were subject to the review “ The Justice Department ’ s Office of the Inspector General has a “ lack of confidence ” in the FBI ’ s procedures to validate information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens , the watchdog said in a report released Tuesday .
The Office of the Inspector General ( OIG ) found errors in all 29 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act ( FISA ) warrant applications that were subject to the review .
The audit is a follow-up to an investigation of the FBI ’ s surveillance of Carter Page , the former Trump campaign aide .
A report of that investigation blasted the FBI for making dozens of errors and omissions in four applications the bureau submitted to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prompted the Justice Department to retract two of the warrants because they were based on faulty information .

And 99% of the FISA warrant applications are rubber stamped approved. What an absolutely sh*t show.
OIG FINDS WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS, LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN FBI AS 100% OF REVIEWED FISA APPLICATIONS FOUND ERRORS AND OMISSIONS: “The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) found errors in all 29 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant applications that were subject to the review“
The Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General has a “lack of confidence” in the FBI’s procedures to validate information used to obtain spy warrants on American citizens, the watchdog said in a report released Tuesday.
The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) found errors in all 29 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant applications that were subject to the review.
The audit is a follow-up to an investigation of the FBI’s surveillance of Carter Page, the former Trump campaign aide.
A report of that investigation blasted the FBI for making dozens of errors and omissions in four applications the bureau submitted to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). The findings prompted the Justice Department to retract two of the warrants because they were based on faulty information.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--PRIVACY: Zoom macOS install ‘shady,’ plus video chats aren’t end-to-end encrypted.

Increased usage of video conferencing app and service Zoom during the coronavirus outbreak is leading to more security issues being @ @ @ @ @ previously sending user data to Facebook , which it says it has fixed , it @ @ @ @ @ two separate security issues .
Twitter user @ c1truz_ , technical lead for malware tracker @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Mac app installer uses preinstallation scripts and allegedly displays a faked macOS system @ @ @ @ @ not strictly malicious , but very shady and definitely leaves a bitter aftertaste , ” @ @ @ @ @ The application is installed without the user giving his [ or her ] final consent @ @ @ @ @ is used to gain root privileges.
” “ [ These are the ] same tricks @ @ @ @ @ macOS malware , ” he concludes .

via appleinsider
Increased usage of video conferencing app and service Zoom during the coronavirus outbreak is leading to more security issues being uncovered. As well as previously sending user data to Facebook, which it says it has fixed, it has now been accused of two separate security issues.
Twitter user @c1truz_, technical lead for malware tracker VMRay, reports that Zoom’s Mac app installer uses preinstallation scripts and allegedly displays a faked macOS system message.
“This is not strictly malicious, but very shady and definitely leaves a bitter aftertaste,” continues @c1truz_, “The application is installed without the user giving his [or her] final consent and a highly misleading prompt is used to gain root privileges.”
“[These are the] same tricks that are being used by macOS malware,” he concludes.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--Former Senior Judge on UK Gov’s Hysterical Response to Covid 19

Featured snippet from the web Jonathan Philip Chadwick Sumption , Lord Sumption , OBE , PC , FSA , FRHistS @ @ @ @ @ ) , is a British author , medieval historian and former senior judge .
… @ @ @ @ @ his role as a barrister in many legal cases .
We are surrendering our freedoms @ @ @ @ @ , and enabling the Government to assume authority it ’ s not entitled to , @ @ @ @ @ police state .
I find it refreshing for someone from his background to be speaking @ @ @ @ @ and agree with everything he ’ s saying .
Maybe it ’ s a reminder @ @ @ @ @ acting responsibly – to reject unreasonable impositions while we still can .

Featured snippet from the web
Jonathan Philip Chadwick Sumption, Lord Sumption, OBE, PC, FSA, FRHistS (born 9 December 1948), is a British author, medieval historian and former senior judge. … Sumption is well known for his role as a barrister in many legal cases.
Synopsis…
We are surrendering our freedoms to a hysteria led threat, and enabling the Government to assume authority it’s not entitled to, and the implementation of a police state.
I find it refreshing for someone from his background to be speaking against the accepted norm, and agree with everything he’s saying.
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Maybe it’s a reminder for us – whilst still acting responsibly – to reject unreasonable impositions while we still can.
I like him.
h/t Gilly


PUTIN Has Coronavirus?

Norbert Elekes @ NorbertElekes · 11m President Vladimir Putin and chief doctor of Moscow ’ s main coronavirus hospital shared @ @ @ @ @ .
The doctor now has coronavirus .

Damn…
Norbert Elekes
@NorbertElekes
·
11m
President Vladimir Putin and chief doctor of Moscow’s main coronavirus hospital shared an elevator ride last week.
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The doctor now has coronavirus.
President Vladimir Putin and chief doctor of Moscow's main coronavirus hospital shared an elevator ride last week. The doctor now has coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/ESU23EtbGt — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 31, 2020
BFD


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-01--How does US provide 15% and China provides 0.2% despite wielding the most influence? Rick Scott want

How does US provide 15% and China provides 0.2% despite wielding the most influence? Rick Scott wants to investigate whether US should continue funding WHO.

How does US provide 15 % and China provides 0.2 % despite wielding the most influence ?
Simple .
The 15 % from the US involves Chinese infiltration .
Just how Trump has been saying from the very start , America has been getting ripped off left and right at home and on the world stage .
We must turn this around while there is still time .
No more identity politics you ’ re either American or you ’ re not .
from the WHO representative who ‘ cut off ’ the phone call when questioned about Taiwan ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , murky past within Ethiopia .
WHY is the health organization , cowtowing to every thing China says , WHY did it take the health organization until February 10 , to actively send in an advance team and admit there is a serious case in China , Wuhan .
WHY , is the health organization praising China for their reaction when we know they are lieing and health professionals everywhere don ’ t agree .
Don ’ t forget what this is folks , the wuhan-flu , the Chinese virus .
They can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call it anything but Covid-19/coronavirus but it originated there and could of been prevented , your countries lockdown and economic fallout could of been prevented by China , instead , your not allowed to go outside , sacked from your job and told that life is about to get even worse in time to come .

Rick Scott wants to investigate whether US should continue funding WHO. We provide ~15% of WHO's budget. China gives ~0.2%. t.co/VQ8s8q0PC3 — Chuck Ross (@ChuckRossDC) March 31, 2020
How does US provide 15% and China provides 0.2% despite wielding the most influence? Simple. The 15% from the US involves Chinese infiltration. Just how Trump has been saying from the very start, America has been getting ripped off left and right at home and on the world stage. We must turn this around while there is still time. No more identity politics you’re either American or you’re not.
from the WHO representative who ‘cut off’ the phone call when questioned about Taiwan’s independence from China. To tedros, murky past within Ethiopia. WHY is the health organization, cowtowing to every thing China says, WHY did it take the health organization until February 10, to actively send in an advance team and admit there is a serious case in China, Wuhan. WHY, is the health organization praising China for their reaction when we know they are lieing and health professionals everywhere don’t agree.
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Don’t forget what this is folks, the wuhan-flu, the Chinese virus. They can rebrand it and make it unlawful to call it anything but Covid-19/coronavirus but it originated there and could of been prevented, your countries lockdown and economic fallout could of been prevented by China, instead, your not allowed to go outside, sacked from your job and told that life is about to get even worse in time to come.
AC