investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--New York City Is Running Out Of Places To Put All The Dead Bodies

It wasn ’ t supposed to happen this rapidly .
It seems like the coronavirus pandemic has been raging in New York for a really long time , but it was only just over a month ago when the first case in the state was confirmed .
Of course now the entire state has been put under a “ shelter-in-place ” order and New York City is quieter than it has ever been in modern American history .
And just like we saw in China and in northern Italy , dead bodies are piling up so quickly that authorities don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them all .
In both China and Italy it got to the point where cremation centers were running around the clock , and now that is happening in New York City too… New York City crematories are extending their hours , burning bodies into the night .
The state has started a running tally of all cremations and burials .
City officials are surveying upstate cemeteries for temporary interment sites .
The destructive spread of the coronavirus through New York has not yet reached its peak , but those who put the dead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is hard to believe that this is actually taking place in the United States .
We are supposed to have the greatest healthcare system on the entire planet , and yet we are unable to keep people from dropping dead left and right .
In fact , so many New Yorkers are dying in Brooklyn that their hospitals are being compared to “ a conveyor belt ” … Hopefully all of those mobile morgues will arrive in NYC very quickly , because at this point authorities are running out of places to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can believe it , the media is actually reporting that some dead bodies have been “ left lying in refrigerated trucks for days ” … If things are this badly already , what is going to happen if the daily death toll doubles or triples ?
Images of medical workers transferring dead bodies into refrigerated trucks outside of New York hospitals have captivated the entire nation , and let us pray that this pandemic doesn ’ t get this bad in the rest of the country .
Over the past 24 hours @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been added to the rapidly growing U.S. total .
That is the largest daily increase so far .
As the number of infected people rises , the strain on our healthcare system is only going to get worse .
In New York City , first responders are already stretched so thin that they have been ordered to no longer take heart attack victims that can not be revived on the scene to the hospital… Can you believe that ?
Unfortunately , more very difficult policy decisions will have to be made if this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is stunning how much things have changed in New York City in just over a month .
Over a thousand members of the NYPD have tested positive , and even New York Governor Andrew Cuomo ’ s brother has caught the virus… Thankfully , not everyone that is infected has that sort of an experience , but there have been enough severe cases in New York that the state is on the verge of a ventilator shortage… Once there aren ’ t enough ventilators to go around , doctors will be faced with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who dies .
This is yet another reason why you want to avoid getting this virus at all costs .
You don ’ t ever want to find yourself in a position where a doctor that you don ’ t even know decides if you get to live or not .
Of course some people never make it to the hospital at all .
On Thursday morning , authorities found a 62-year-old man dead on the floor of a subway train… At this point we don ’ t know if that man had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact that we have seen videos of people dropping dead from the virus all over the world , it certainly wouldn ’ t be a surprise if he did .
Scientists kept warning us that someday a major pandemic like this would happen , but most Americans didn ’ t take those warnings seriously .
Now COVID-19 has become the third leading cause of death in the United States , and some experts believe that it will actually take the top spot in a few weeks .
Hopefully the measures that have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to “ flatten the curve ” , but even if that happens it appears that we are in for a very , very long battle with this virus .
Just consider what Dr. Anthony Fauci told the media earlier this week… So how long will it take to get to “ essentially no new cases ” ?
And will our economy be allowed to continue to collapse until that happens ?
Of course this coronavirus pandemic is not the only major crisis the world is dealing with right now , and the truth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is just heating up .
Unfortunately , most Americans are still completely clueless about what is transpiring , and most of them are still desperately hoping that things will eventually return to “ normal ” somehow .

by Michael Snyder
It wasn’t supposed to happen this rapidly. It seems like the coronavirus pandemic has been raging in New York for a really long time, but it was only just over a month ago when the first case in the state was confirmed. Of course now the entire state has been put under a “shelter-in-place” order and New York City is quieter than it has ever been in modern American history. And just like we saw in China and in northern Italy, dead bodies are piling up so quickly that authorities don’t know what to do with them all. In both China and Italy it got to the point where cremation centers were running around the clock, and now that is happening in New York City too…
New York City crematories are extending their hours, burning bodies into the night. The state has started a running tally of all cremations and burials. City officials are surveying upstate cemeteries for temporary interment sites. The destructive spread of the coronavirus through New York has not yet reached its peak, but those who put the dead to rest have never been busier.
It is hard to believe that this is actually taking place in the United States.
We are supposed to have the greatest healthcare system on the entire planet, and yet we are unable to keep people from dropping dead left and right.
In fact, so many New Yorkers are dying in Brooklyn that their hospitals are being compared to “a conveyor belt”…
Bodies of coronavirus victims are flowing through Brooklyn hospitals ‘like a conveyor belt’ and as many as 130 more mobile morgues are on their way to New York City to store them as experts warn that the death toll in the US pandemic epicenter could reach 16,000. Hospitals and healthcare professionals are struggling to bring the crisis under control and the city is becoming overwhelmed with dead bodies as the pandemic is poised to kill more New Yorkers than 9/11.
Hopefully all of those mobile morgues will arrive in NYC very quickly, because at this point authorities are running out of places to put all the dead bodies.
If you can believe it, the media is actually reporting that some dead bodies have been “left lying in refrigerated trucks for days”…
A domino effect has meant victims’ bodies are left lying in refrigerated trucks for days as there is not enough space in hospital morgues, funeral homes can’t keep up with demand and cemeteries are operating less than usual due to the city’s lockdown and social distancing rules. Mobile morgues have been drafted in to plug the gap and the city’s medical examiner’s office has taken control of the disposal of bodies and started taking in bodies to its five facilities.
If things are this badly already, what is going to happen if the daily death toll doubles or triples?
Images of medical workers transferring dead bodies into refrigerated trucks outside of New York hospitals have captivated the entire nation, and let us pray that this pandemic doesn’t get this bad in the rest of the country.
CORONAVIRUS ▶ Medical personnel transfer bodies into and out of a refrigerated truck placed outside Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York City Wednesday in order to deal with a spike in COVID-19 deaths. 👉 New York has 83,712 confirmed cases and at least 1,941 deaths. (AFP) pic.twitter.com/bDcHUjZIvV — The Voice of America (@VOANews) April 1, 2020
“We’re putting them out near major hospitals as a precautionary measure to prepare for the worst-case scenario," a spokesperson said. New York City is building a temporary morgue to deal with an expected influx of deaths from the coronavirus outbreak pic.twitter.com/xcc0fNB9Ex — QuickTake by Bloomberg (@QuickTake) March 25, 2020
Over the past 24 hours, about 29,000 more confirmed cases have been added to the rapidly growing U.S. total.
That is the largest daily increase so far.
As the number of infected people rises, the strain on our healthcare system is only going to get worse.
In New York City, first responders are already stretched so thin that they have been ordered to no longer take heart attack victims that cannot be revived on the scene to the hospital…
Cardiac arrest victims whose hearts cannot be restarted at the scene are now being left there — rather than being brought to coronavirus-strained hospitals for further revival attempts, according to a new guidance for medical responders. The Regional Emergency Medical Services Council of New York, which oversees the city’s ambulance service, issued the guidance on Tuesday in a letter obtained by The Post.
Can you believe that?
Unfortunately, more very difficult policy decisions will have to be made if this virus keeps spreading like wildfire.
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It is stunning how much things have changed in New York City in just over a month. Over a thousand members of the NYPD have tested positive, and even New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s brother has caught the virus…
“This virus came at me, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Cuomo said, telling viewers that he was racked with a fever of around 103 degrees “that wouldn’t quit.” “It was like somebody was beating me like a piñata,” he continued. “I was shivering so much . . . I chipped my tooth.”
Thankfully, not everyone that is infected has that sort of an experience, but there have been enough severe cases in New York that the state is on the verge of a ventilator shortage…
“Right now, we have a burn rate of about six days in the stockpile,” Cuomo said. “We have extraordinary measures in place that can make a difference if we run into a real ventilator shortage.” The governor said just 2,200 ventilators remain in the state’s stockpile. An additional 350 a day are needed to save coronavirus-stricken patients.
Once there aren’t enough ventilators to go around, doctors will be faced with making grim choices about who lives and who dies.
This is yet another reason why you want to avoid getting this virus at all costs. You don’t ever want to find yourself in a position where a doctor that you don’t even know decides if you get to live or not.
Of course some people never make it to the hospital at all. On Thursday morning, authorities found a 62-year-old man dead on the floor of a subway train…
It was a grim discovery on a subway train in the Astoria section of Queens early on Thursday morning. Passengers reported an unconscious person on an ‘N’ train at the Ditmars Boulevard Subway Station on 35th St. Police got the call just before 4:30 a.m. and when they got there they found that the 62-year-old victim was dead on the floor of the train.
At this point we don’t know if that man had coronavirus or not.
But considering the fact that we have seen videos of people dropping dead from the virus all over the world, it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he did.
Scientists kept warning us that someday a major pandemic like this would happen, but most Americans didn’t take those warnings seriously.
Now COVID-19 has become the third leading cause of death in the United States, and some experts believe that it will actually take the top spot in a few weeks.
Hopefully the measures that have been taken all over the nation will start to “flatten the curve”, but even if that happens it appears that we are in for a very, very long battle with this virus. Just consider what Dr. Anthony Fauci told the media earlier this week…
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci says that the United States will not come out of lockdown until there are no “new cases” of coronavirus, prompting some to question precisely how long that will be. During yesterday’s White House briefing, Fauci, who has become the face of America’s response to the coronavirus, was asked by a reporter whether social distancing measures will be imposed until there is a drug or vaccine to treat COVID-19. “I think if we get to the part of the curve that Dr. Birx showed yesterday when it goes down to essentially no new cases, no new deaths at a period of time. I think it makes sense that you will have to relax social distancing,” Fauci said.
So how long will it take to get to “essentially no new cases”?
And will our economy be allowed to continue to collapse until that happens?
Of course this coronavirus pandemic is not the only major crisis the world is dealing with right now, and the truth is that “the perfect storm” is just heating up.
Unfortunately, most Americans are still completely clueless about what is transpiring, and most of them are still desperately hoping that things will eventually return to “normal” somehow.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Contrarian view on Covid-19 and some ramblings

Not sure what the reliability of the piece is .
The balance is a difficult one to get right in the complexity of many factors with many unknowns : • ( Potential ) severity of the epidemic itself , reaction undershoot ( Sweden ? )
vs reaction overshoot ( comprehensive lock-down ) .
Intelligent precautionary principle seems the best approach .
‘ Hammer ’ and you manage the short-term problem , but leave the underlying vulnerability ( non-immune population ) until an effective vaccine is available .
Managed propagation brings herd-immunity , but risks blowing up in your face if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ in the economy ; try to keep economy afloat vs ‘ all-in ’ on flattening the curve .
Managed demolition to address the underlying vulnerabilities in the economy and rebalance physical economy and its resource base ( environment and real society ) vs financial economy would be most adequate - > not gon na happen… The medium- and long-term economic fall-out is probably going to be severe .
• Political and social trust : justified and unjustified destruction of trust ( emergency response is always a gamble and mistakes are part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and will be interpreted will be important though ) mixed with emotions will also generate severe fall-out .
Interesting the approaches of China and Russia vs USA and EU , this will have a tail for several dogmas and existing institutions… Does anyone have an opinion on Pepe Escobar article www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/04/02/ground-control-planet-lockdown-only-test/ ?

by Afridev
Contrarian view on Covid-19: swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Not sure what the reliability of the piece is.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The balance is a difficult one to get right in the complexity of many factors with many unknowns:
(Potential) severity of the epidemic itself, reaction undershoot (Sweden?) vs reaction overshoot (comprehensive lock-down). Intelligent precautionary principle seems the best approach. ‘Hammer’ and you manage the short-term problem, but leave the underlying vulnerability (non-immune population) until an effective vaccine is available. Managed propagation brings herd-immunity, but risks blowing up in your face if assumptions are wrong.
‘Pull it’ in the economy; try to keep economy afloat vs ‘all-in’ on flattening the curve. Managed demolition to address the underlying vulnerabilities in the economy and rebalance physical economy and its resource base (environment and real society) vs financial economy would be most adequate -> not gonna happen… The medium- and long-term economic fall-out is probably going to be severe.
Political and social trust: justified and unjustified destruction of trust (emergency response is always a gamble and mistakes are part of it, how these are managed and will be interpreted will be important though) mixed with emotions will also generate severe fall-out. Interesting the approaches of China and Russia vs USA and EU, this will have a tail for several dogmas and existing institutions…
Does anyone have an opinion on Pepe Escobar article www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/04/02/ground-control-planet-lockdown-only-test/ ?
Interesting times…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--The cash burn of companies is all that will matter in the coming weeks and months

The cash burn of companies is all that will matter in the coming weeks and months t.co/Z8o5j0H5fn
— Lindsay David (@linzcom) April 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--The $260 Trillion disaster no one is looking at.

Here are a list of issues I see developing over the next 12-18 months .
They all go back to what is essentially a $ 260 Trillion dollar industry .
That ’ s the estimate of worldwide debt as of last quarter .
We could have smashed through that number already , who knows .
What I ’ m seeing in these following issues amounts to a ton of defaults and a freezing up of the thing that essentially makes the wheels of the global economy go around .
If this pandemic and lockdown keep going , the price of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are going to be irrelevant .
• The FED is back in the MBS game .
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB They have recently been piling into mortgage backed securities lately .
They got up to a high of close to $ 1.1 trillion during the GFC in 2010 .
They upped it to about $ 1.5 trillion in 2015 and were just starting to unwind some of that over the last few years .
However , within the last 2-3 weeks they have piled up over $ 100 Billion in MBS to stabilize that industry .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll mention later , you will quickly see how this whole thing could unravel and the FED will reach an ATH in MBS holdings in order to try to stabilize everything .
• The FED as a whole has been extremely busy .
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL I don ’ t really even need to write anything here .
Just look at that graph .
It ’ s terrifying .
• Unemployment .
We are basically 2 weeks into the numbers being reported , and they are absolutely awful .
There ’ s no telling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global leaders like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro , this could be going on for a long time .
The longer this goes , the more dreadful the numbers will become .
Unemployment peaked at around 10 % during the last crash , and if this goes on for another 2-3 months , we are going to absolutely demolish that number and get into the ball park of the 25 % record during the great depression .
This ties back into # 1 , there are going to be so many mortgage defaults @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in turn , also causes defaults from larger investors ) .
• Check that link I posted at the top talking about corporate bonds being downgraded .
In the simplest terms , when a bond is downgraded , it means it has a higher risk of default .
A ton of players in the credit industry are limited to type of ratings on bonds they can hold .
I honestly think this may be the domino that sets everything off .
If a business can ’ t produce/sell/operate , they can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already at debt levels higher than we were in 2008 before COVID happened , this lockdown is just exacerbating an already pre-existing condition that was probably going to cause a mini-meltdown all on its own .
If this lockdown stage goes on until mid-summer , I fully expect there to be at least one bankruptcy on the same level as Lehman Brothers , if not multiple .
I could go on FOR DAYS on this .
There are so many underlying , systemic issues that this crisis is going to bring to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m terrified/interested to see unfold is the fate of the USD over the next little while .
The FED has basically gone through their entire playbook from the GFC .
Target rates are already 0 % , and they are going to blast through any amount of expansive policy that they ever engaged in 10 years ago .
On top of an ever increasing “ supply ” of USD , there is a market that is going to see a dramatic drop in “ demand ” of USD….oil .
If you don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pop some popcorn , and fall down a youtube wormhole and feel the dread sink in .
I feel like OPEC is gon na get their crap straightened out , and the price of oil is going to stabilize , but there are so many industries that are shut down right now that guzzle a ton of oil .
On top of that , about 50 % of the world is on a lockdown , and consuming a fraction of the oil they normally would .
A decrease in demand for the dollar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the supply of the dollar and an ongoing recession is a recipe for a nightmare I can ’ t even fathom .
Thankfully the USD is basically what the global economy relies on , so I don ’ t think any government , no matter how malicious they may be , will allow it to collapse .
I want to finish this all of by saying that I ABSOLUTELY hope I ’ m wrong on every single one of those things .
I 100 % hope , pray , wish that a cure/vaccine/treatment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heard stories of how dreadful this disease is , and it makes me deeply sad to know that millions of people are going to have to deal with it before all is said and done .
TL ; DR – The credit market is WAY more important than the equity market and much larger .
Spend less time looking at the price of the S & P 500 and look at the asset sheet of the FED , bond yields , foreclosure amounts , etc .
Bonus .
This is what my big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve been rolling a bit of money into SLV ( a “ paper ” silver fund ) .
Just look at the price of silver in the early 80s .
It was insane , and we are entering into some of the same monetary territory that we had back then .
Although some believe that QE and Central Bank purchases are sufficient to reduce credit spreads , investment-graded corporate bond downgrades are on a 20-year high .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by clash_jeremy
Here are a list of issues I see developing over the next 12-18 months. They all go back to what is essentially a $260 Trillion dollar industry. That’s the estimate of worldwide debt as of last quarter. We could have smashed through that number already, who knows. What I’m seeing in these following issues amounts to a ton of defaults and a freezing up of the thing that essentially makes the wheels of the global economy go around. If this pandemic and lockdown keep going, the price of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are going to be irrelevant.
The FED is back in the MBS game. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB They have recently been piling into mortgage backed securities lately. They got up to a high of close to $1.1 trillion during the GFC in 2010. They upped it to about $1.5 trillion in 2015 and were just starting to unwind some of that over the last few years. However, within the last 2-3 weeks they have piled up over $100 Billion in MBS to stabilize that industry. With all of the other issues I’ll mention later, you will quickly see how this whole thing could unravel and the FED will reach an ATH in MBS holdings in order to try to stabilize everything. The FED as a whole has been extremely busy. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL I don’t really even need to write anything here. Just look at that graph. It’s terrifying. Unemployment. We are basically 2 weeks into the numbers being reported, and they are absolutely awful. There’s no telling when this will end, but with global leaders like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, this could be going on for a long time. The longer this goes, the more dreadful the numbers will become. Unemployment peaked at around 10% during the last crash, and if this goes on for another 2-3 months, we are going to absolutely demolish that number and get into the ball park of the 25% record during the great depression. This ties back into #1, there are going to be so many mortgage defaults and late/missed rental payments (which, in turn, also causes defaults from larger investors). Check that link I posted at the top talking about corporate bonds being downgraded. In the simplest terms, when a bond is downgraded, it means it has a higher risk of default. A ton of players in the credit industry are limited to type of ratings on bonds they can hold. I honestly think this may be the domino that sets everything off. If a business can’t produce/sell/operate, they can’t pay off their loans. We were already at debt levels higher than we were in 2008 before COVID happened, this lockdown is just exacerbating an already pre-existing condition that was probably going to cause a mini-meltdown all on its own. If this lockdown stage goes on until mid-summer, I fully expect there to be at least one bankruptcy on the same level as Lehman Brothers, if not multiple.
I could go on FOR DAYS on this. There are so many underlying, systemic issues that this crisis is going to bring to the forefront. One thing that I’m terrified/interested to see unfold is the fate of the USD over the next little while. The FED has basically gone through their entire playbook from the GFC. Target rates are already 0%, and they are going to blast through any amount of expansive policy that they ever engaged in 10 years ago. On top of an ever increasing “supply” of USD, there is a market that is going to see a dramatic drop in “demand” of USD….oil. If you don’t know anything about the petrodollar, pop some popcorn, and fall down a youtube wormhole and feel the dread sink in. I feel like OPEC is gonna get their crap straightened out, and the price of oil is going to stabilize, but there are so many industries that are shut down right now that guzzle a ton of oil. On top of that, about 50% of the world is on a lockdown, and consuming a fraction of the oil they normally would. A decrease in demand for the dollar, combined with a dramatic increase in the supply of the dollar and an ongoing recession is a recipe for a nightmare I can’t even fathom. Thankfully the USD is basically what the global economy relies on, so I don’t think any government, no matter how malicious they may be, will allow it to collapse.
I want to finish this all of by saying that I ABSOLUTELY hope I’m wrong on every single one of those things. I 100% hope, pray, wish that a cure/vaccine/treatment were discovered yesterday. I’ve heard stories of how dreadful this disease is, and it makes me deeply sad to know that millions of people are going to have to deal with it before all is said and done.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
TL;DR – The credit market is WAY more important than the equity market and much larger. Spend less time looking at the price of the S&P 500 and look at the asset sheet of the FED, bond yields, foreclosure amounts, etc.
Bonus. This is what my big “gamble” is right now. I’ve been rolling a bit of money into SLV (a “paper” silver fund). Just look at the price of silver in the early 80s. It was insane, and we are entering into some of the same monetary territory that we had back then.
Although some believe that QE and Central Bank purchases are sufficient to reduce credit spreads, investment-graded corporate bond downgrades are on a 20-year high.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--Bank of America, SBA loans 6 Billion, assuming 1% fees, will earns 60m in first HALF day

Bank of America recieves request for SBA loans worth 6 Billion in first half day .
If we assume 1 % fees ( which varies between 5 % -1 % ) , BAC will earn at least 60m in first day .
Bank of America said that about half way through its first day administering a small business relief program , more than 58,000 customers applied for $ 6 billion in loans .
The bank was the first major lender to get its web portal for the Paycheck Protection Program up and running , and it was soon inundated with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of applications to take in such a short period of time and considering we just launched the site this morning at 8:45 a.m. , ” a Bank of America manager told staff in an email .
As of mid-afternoon Friday , among the largest U.S. lenders , only Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were accepting applications for the program , which was supposed to go live shortly after midnight .
JPMorgan ’ s site went live with a temporary version of its portal after 1 p.m. Further , Wells Fargo announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applications on Friday .
The chaotic launch heightened fears among business owners that they could miss out on the historic program if lenders manage to disburse all $ 350 billion of the money .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he would request more money if that happened , but that would require Congressional approval .
The U.S. government has asked banks to help it dole out at least $ 350 billion in loans to small businesses , part of the $ 2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill signed last week .
But banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lacked the guidance to get online systems up and running until just hours before the deadline .
That guidance was finally issued by Treasury around 7 p.m. Thursday , leaving banks scrambling to get their systems to accept loan applications .
“ Having just received guidance outlining how to implement a $ 349 billion program literally hours before it starts , we would ask for everyone to be patient , ” Richard Hunt , head of the Consumer Bankers Association , said late Thursday .
He added that the organization ’ s members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get a system in place and running to help America ’ s small businesses and the millions of men and women who work at them .
Even at Bank of America , there was confusion among customers about the program .
The bank is prioritizing existing customers with online accounts who are active borrowers as of last month , meaning that even longtime customers are being initially shut out of the application process .
Dozens of irate customers took to social media to complain .
TLDR : Long/calls on financials that deals in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ JPM etc .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/bank-of-americas-small-business-loan-portal-is-up-making-it-the-first-bank-to-accept-applications.html
Bank of America recieves request for SBA loans worth 6 Billion in first half day. If we assume 1% fees (which varies between 5%-1%), BAC will earn at least 60m in first day.
Bank of America said that about half way through its first day administering a small business relief program, more than 58,000 customers applied for $6 billion in loans.
The bank was the first major lender to get its web portal for the Paycheck Protection Program up and running, and it was soon inundated with requests.
“That is an astounding number of applications to take in such a short period of time and considering we just launched the site this morning at 8:45 a.m.,” a Bank of America manager told staff in an email.
As of mid-afternoon Friday, among the largest U.S. lenders, only Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were accepting applications for the program, which was supposed to go live shortly after midnight. JPMorgan’s site went live with a temporary version of its portal after 1 p.m. Further, Wells Fargo announced that it will be unable to accept applications on Friday.
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The chaotic launch heightened fears among business owners that they could miss out on the historic program if lenders manage to disburse all $350 billion of the money. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he would request more money if that happened, but that would require Congressional approval.
The U.S. government has asked banks to help it dole out at least $350 billion in loans to small businesses, part of the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill signed last week. But banks and industry groups have complained that they lacked the guidance to get online systems up and running until just hours before the deadline. That guidance was finally issued by Treasury around 7 p.m. Thursday, leaving banks scrambling to get their systems to accept loan applications.
“Having just received guidance outlining how to implement a $349 billion program literally hours before it starts, we would ask for everyone to be patient,” Richard Hunt, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, said late Thursday. He added that the organization’s members would “move heaven and earth to get a system in place and running to help America’s small businesses and the millions of men and women who work at them.
Even at Bank of America, there was confusion among customers about the program. The bank is prioritizing existing customers with online accounts who are active borrowers as of last month, meaning that even longtime customers are being initially shut out of the application process. Dozens of irate customers took to social media to complain.
TLDR: Long/calls on financials that deals in SBA loans. BAC, WFC, JPM etc.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--Mortgage Servicing Crisis 2 – Forbearance

I submitted a post last week summarizing some issues in the mortgage industry .
It was a long article from Barry Habib with some insight/conclusions .
I ’ m writing this to add to that post with some additional info about what ’ s going on in the industry and how the forbearances are impacting mortgage servicing .
The two big points from the previous post that I ’ ll touch upon : Margin Calls – the Fed buying mortgage-backed-securities ( MBS ) was causing lenders to run into significant margin calls , a fairly significant risk to lenders .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ market fluctuations .
Forbearance Poses Risk to Lenders – The CARES Act , Section 4022 , provides that a mortgage servicer must provide borrowers a forbearance of up to an initial 180 days , and then it can be renewed for a subsequent 180 days .
During this period , the servicers are expected to keep making payments to the asset owner – Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac / Ginnie Mae ( the government sponsored enterprises , or GSEs ) .
So , even if providing the borrower the loan forbearance required by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sending payments to the GSEs .
As I ’ ll discuss below , the Act does not identify specific methods to resolve the forbearance at the end of the period .
So , whats new ?
Well , the margin call is still an issue – but the fed backed off of their level of MBS purchasing by a little bit , but not enough to resolve the issue .
Lenders clearing out their active loans will help resolve this , so in time it will improve as long as the Fed continues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It will still hurt lenders but I don ’ t think this is going to be a nail in the coffin for any of the big servicers .
The forbearance process is worth further describing .
So , hypothetical situation : lets say I have a mortgage serviced by Quicken ( don ’ t get excited they are private ) and I just heard the CARES Act allows me to skip payments .
I ’ m a waiter , I just got laid off , I could really use 3 months without my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them , wait on hold for two hours , and then they agree to let me not make payments for the next three months – and they will send the info to sign .
Great , right ?
Almost too good to be true .
So , here are the three outcomes of a forberance after Quicken quickly agrees to it : 1 . )
BY DEFAULT – From the borrower ’ s perspective , I don ’ t hear anything for three months .
Then , in month 4 , Quicken calls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three of which are “ delinquent.
” I now learn there are 4 payments – all due in month 4 .
Well , hold on I just returned to work I don ’ t have $ 8k – what can I do besides YOLO FDs ?
Well , probably not much .
2 . )
Payment Plan – the next option is to resolve that past due $ 6k on a payment plan , if the lender agrees to this .
So instead of a $ 2k payment , I might have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now I just returned to my service industry job – I was already paycheck to paycheck , I have all sorts of other past due credit card/auto/student loan bills from being laid off , and now my mortgage is 25 % higher .
That ’ s not going to work for me .
3 . )
Loan Modification – A loan modification is the option that everyone thinks they are getting through CARES Act by default – it extends the term of the mortgage and adds the missed payments to the end .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be provided over the phone as an immediate solution if I call Quicken and ask .
It has to be applied for , I would have to qualify , and it has to be approved by the lender .
It is not a trivial request , and it will not be approved lightly given the current lending environment and amount of credit risk .
Plus , considering the lender has already made 3+ payments to the GSEs without one from me – they are going to want to quickly determine whether this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a non-performing loan ( more to come on this ) .
They will want to flush out the good loans from the bad as soon as they can get past the time periods required in the CARES Act .
So , a loan modification requires a level of qualification ( credit check , paystubs , etc. )
.
As a borrower , I am then going to have to show this lender the amount of debt I ’ ve racked up paying for everything with credit cards while laid off – and how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any bills while waiting for my $ 1200 Starbucks allowance from the Feds .
I am a Loan Officer , as mentioned in the previous post .
Half my week has been talking to past clients about forbearanaces , and most of them just want a few months of skipped payments so they can relax about the economy and have that safety net .
Sure , some have lost their jobs or are on the verge of losing their jobs – in which case it makes sense , your alternative is worse .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ financed and 0/3 renters can pay their rent this month .
SO MANY PEOPLE are requesting the forbearance on an elective basis that our industry experts are begging real estate professionals to properly describe to them how this works , and what they will be faced with .
Servicers are quick to approve the forbearance , and the borrowers are not understanding the possible outcomes .
I have a friend I consider to be a business-minded , prudent , and intelligent individual .
He called servicers for two properties , US Bank and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 3 months and the other offered 6 months .
He took them , they said they ’ d send something for him to sign but that it was in effect .
Neither made any effort whatsoever to explain to him the resulting options at the end of the forbearance .
He called me to ask if it would have any adverse impact , as they had not described the process well to him .
These are call centers taking the requests , obviously they are doing what they can to get to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a $ 110B servicing portfolio , and we got 8000 requests for forbearances IN A WEEK .
Mr. Cooper ( subject of my last post ) has a $ 640B servicing portfolio .
At the end of this initial 3-6 month forbearance that lenders are required to offer , we are going to see lenders quickly decide how to handle each file .
As mentioned above , they consider the account delinquent during the forbearance ( although not reported to credit ) – so they already have a jump on the next steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely be a flood of “ performing ” loans ( paid on time ) turning into “ non-performing loans ” ( past-due 180+ days ) .
If a loan becomes non-performing , the GSEs end up auctioning off the assets ( mortgage notes ) in blocks .
These blocks are generally bought at auction by funds and securitized into non-performing loan MBSs .
Of the companies that do this , there are only a few that have publicly traded entities .
Now , I ’ ll touch briefly on what is going on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the servicers like Quicken have revenue split between originating and servicing : Purchase Volume – The last two weeks we saw purchase mortgage applications decline 15 % and 11 % .
Personally , I have had a noticeable reduction in purchase apps , and all of my preapproved borrowers are putting their home search on hold .
Refinance Volume – Because of current credit risk lenders are considering , rates are only attractive on an owner-occupied primary residence with an optimal borrower .
Low credit score , investment properties , etc.
, @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t make sense .
General Volume – Loan programs have tightened up considerably in the last two weeks .
Yesterday my company scrapped all of our jumbo programs .
We had already scrapped all of our non-QM programs ( subprime ) .
Our FICO requirements are up 40 points , for self-employed individuals we can only use 75 % of their income now , use of gift funds is more restrictive , etc .
We are definitely going to see less individuals qualifying for financing because of these guideline adjustments .
TL ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knowing “ non-bank mortgage lenders in trouble ” How to use this info : 1 . )
Puts on non-bank mortgage lenders – They are going to suffer because all of their revenue comes from originating and the residual from servicing .
They are going to lose the servicing revenue on a significant amount of non-performing loans , and they are going to have trouble originating loans for at least a few months .
My last post included COOP , the largest publicly traded servicer – they also originate .
I still like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to continue to decline , but the premiums are outrageous right now .
I like puts on any non-bank publicly traded mortgage originating/servicing company .
Not 100 % in line with this recommendation , but I decided to make a move on REM which is a closed-end mortgage-based REIT .
It has 80 % in residential mortgage securities and 20 % commercial ( which I also think is vulnerable ) .
So , REM 15p 10/16 2 . )
I spent a long time last night reading the auction results from non-performing loans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see which publicly traded companies might mostly focus on NPLs .
I wanted to buy calls on companies that focus on NPLs , anticipating they would have a higher volume in coming months .
Most are either private , or they securitize the loans and aren ’ t exposed , or they are too diversified in other aspects of real estate to anticipate the NPL volume helping share price .
I don ’ t have a great play here .
If someone wants a fun research project , go try to find a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traded , and is not well-diversified .
Although I did not find them buying recent auction pools ( I only looked at ’ 19 ) I did take a position in [ an option with an underlying value too low for this post to get approved ] because they focus on NPLs and at an auction long ago they received 90 % of the NPLs being offered by the GSEs .
The premiums were cheap and their share price is 30 % of what it was in February .
There are some banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think the Feds are more likely to let the non-bank lenders fail .
If anyone has any suggestions on positions to take based on this info , please do comment with it .
I know we had some MBS guys and other people in the mortgage industry comment on the last post , would be interested for more input .
TL : DR : Fed says you don ’ t have to pay your mortgage , lenders agree quickly to forbearances , borrowers will be expected to pay in full at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t understanding that , on a large scale .
COOP 5p 10/16 ( but maybe wait for a bounce the premiums are nuts ) REM 15p 10/16 Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by HowGreatAreYourDanes
Mortgage Servicing Crisis – Chapter 2 – Forbearances
I submitted a post last week summarizing some issues in the mortgage industry. It was a long article from Barry Habib with some insight/conclusions. I’m writing this to add to that post with some additional info about what’s going on in the industry and how the forbearances are impacting mortgage servicing.
The two big points from the previous post that I’ll touch upon: Margin Calls – the Fed buying mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) was causing lenders to run into significant margin calls, a fairly significant risk to lenders. Lenders hedge their locked loan pipelines against market fluctuations.
Forbearance Poses Risk to Lenders – The CARES Act, Section 4022, provides that a mortgage servicer must provide borrowers a forbearance of up to an initial 180 days, and then it can be renewed for a subsequent 180 days. During this period, the servicers are expected to keep making payments to the asset owner – Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac / Ginnie Mae (the government sponsored enterprises, or GSEs). So, even if providing the borrower the loan forbearance required by the CARES Act, a servicer is sending payments to the GSEs. As I’ll discuss below, the Act does not identify specific methods to resolve the forbearance at the end of the period.
So, whats new? Well, the margin call is still an issue – but the fed backed off of their level of MBS purchasing by a little bit, but not enough to resolve the issue. Lenders clearing out their active loans will help resolve this, so in time it will improve as long as the Fed continues to be timid on MBS purchase. It will still hurt lenders but I don’t think this is going to be a nail in the coffin for any of the big servicers.
The forbearance process is worth further describing. So, hypothetical situation: lets say I have a mortgage serviced by Quicken (don’t get excited they are private) and I just heard the CARES Act allows me to skip payments. I’m a waiter, I just got laid off, I could really use 3 months without my $2k mortgage payments. I call them, wait on hold for two hours, and then they agree to let me not make payments for the next three months – and they will send the info to sign. Great, right? Almost too good to be true.
So, here are the three outcomes of a forberance after Quicken quickly agrees to it:
1.) BY DEFAULT – From the borrower’s perspective, I don’t hear anything for three months. Then, in month 4, Quicken calls and says I have 4 payments, three of which are “delinquent.” I now learn there are 4 payments – all due in month 4. Well, hold on I just returned to work I don’t have $8k – what can I do besides YOLO FDs? Well, probably not much.
2.) Payment Plan – the next option is to resolve that past due $6k on a payment plan, if the lender agrees to this. So instead of a $2k payment, I might have a $2500 payment for a year. Now I just returned to my service industry job – I was already paycheck to paycheck, I have all sorts of other past due credit card/auto/student loan bills from being laid off, and now my mortgage is 25% higher. That’s not going to work for me.
3.) Loan Modification – A loan modification is the option that everyone thinks they are getting through CARES Act by default – it extends the term of the mortgage and adds the missed payments to the end. This is not a scenario that will be provided over the phone as an immediate solution if I call Quicken and ask. It has to be applied for, I would have to qualify, and it has to be approved by the lender. It is not a trivial request, and it will not be approved lightly given the current lending environment and amount of credit risk. Plus, considering the lender has already made 3+ payments to the GSEs without one from me – they are going to want to quickly determine whether this is going to be a performing loan or a non-performing loan (more to come on this). They will want to flush out the good loans from the bad as soon as they can get past the time periods required in the CARES Act.
So, a loan modification requires a level of qualification (credit check, paystubs, etc.). As a borrower, I am then going to have to show this lender the amount of debt I’ve racked up paying for everything with credit cards while laid off – and how f*cked my credit has gotten not paying any bills while waiting for my $1200 Starbucks allowance from the Feds.
I am a Loan Officer, as mentioned in the previous post. Half my week has been talking to past clients about forbearanaces, and most of them just want a few months of skipped payments so they can relax about the economy and have that safety net. Sure, some have lost their jobs or are on the verge of losing their jobs – in which case it makes sense, your alternative is worse. One owns three rentals I’ve financed and 0/3 renters can pay their rent this month.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
SO MANY PEOPLE are requesting the forbearance on an elective basis that our industry experts are begging real estate professionals to properly describe to them how this works, and what they will be faced with. Servicers are quick to approve the forbearance, and the borrowers are not understanding the possible outcomes.
I have a friend I consider to be a business-minded, prudent, and intelligent individual. He called servicers for two properties, US Bank and Wells Fargo – one offered a forbearance of 3 months and the other offered 6 months. He took them, they said they’d send something for him to sign but that it was in effect. Neither made any effort whatsoever to explain to him the resulting options at the end of the forbearance. He called me to ask if it would have any adverse impact, as they had not described the process well to him.
These are call centers taking the requests, obviously they are doing what they can to get to the next call.
My company has a $110B servicing portfolio, and we got 8000 requests for forbearances IN A WEEK. Mr. Cooper (subject of my last post) has a $640B servicing portfolio.
At the end of this initial 3-6 month forbearance that lenders are required to offer, we are going to see lenders quickly decide how to handle each file. As mentioned above, they consider the account delinquent during the forbearance (although not reported to credit) – so they already have a jump on the next steps to collect past-due payments. There will likely be a flood of “performing” loans (paid on time) turning into “non-performing loans” (past-due 180+ days). If a loan becomes non-performing, the GSEs end up auctioning off the assets (mortgage notes) in blocks. These blocks are generally bought at auction by funds and securitized into non-performing loan MBSs. Of the companies that do this, there are only a few that have publicly traded entities.
Now, I’ll touch briefly on what is going on with mortgage lending – because a lot of the servicers like Quicken have revenue split between originating and servicing: Purchase Volume – The last two weeks we saw purchase mortgage applications decline 15% and 11%. Personally, I have had a noticeable reduction in purchase apps, and all of my preapproved borrowers are putting their home search on hold. Refinance Volume – Because of current credit risk lenders are considering, rates are only attractive on an owner-occupied primary residence with an optimal borrower. Low credit score, investment properties, etc., have rates so high they don’t make sense. General Volume – Loan programs have tightened up considerably in the last two weeks. Yesterday my company scrapped all of our jumbo programs. We had already scrapped all of our non-QM programs (subprime). Our FICO requirements are up 40 points, for self-employed individuals we can only use 75% of their income now, use of gift funds is more restrictive, etc. We are definitely going to see less individuals qualifying for financing because of these guideline adjustments.
TL;DR folks can start here with only knowing “non-bank mortgage lenders in trouble”
How to use this info: 1.) Puts on non-bank mortgage lenders – They are going to suffer because all of their revenue comes from originating and the residual from servicing. They are going to lose the servicing revenue on a significant amount of non-performing loans, and they are going to have trouble originating loans for at least a few months. My last post included COOP, the largest publicly traded servicer – they also originate. I still like it and expect the underlying share price to continue to decline, but the premiums are outrageous right now. I like puts on any non-bank publicly traded mortgage originating/servicing company. Not 100% in line with this recommendation, but I decided to make a move on REM which is a closed-end mortgage-based REIT. It has 80% in residential mortgage securities and 20% commercial (which I also think is vulnerable). So, REM 15p 10/16
2.) I spent a long time last night reading the auction results from non-performing loans and then looking up the buyers to see which publicly traded companies might mostly focus on NPLs. I wanted to buy calls on companies that focus on NPLs, anticipating they would have a higher volume in coming months. Most are either private, or they securitize the loans and aren’t exposed, or they are too diversified in other aspects of real estate to anticipate the NPL volume helping share price. I don’t have a great play here. If someone wants a fun research project, go try to find a company who services NPLs, is publicly traded, and is not well-diversified. Although I did not find them buying recent auction pools (I only looked at ’19) I did take a position in [an option with an underlying value too low for this post to get approved] because they focus on NPLs and at an auction long ago they received 90% of the NPLs being offered by the GSEs. The premiums were cheap and their share price is 30% of what it was in February.
There are some banks with significant mortgage servicing rights, but I think the Feds are more likely to let the non-bank lenders fail.
If anyone has any suggestions on positions to take based on this info, please do comment with it. I know we had some MBS guys and other people in the mortgage industry comment on the last post, would be interested for more input.
TL:DR : Fed says you don’t have to pay your mortgage, lenders agree quickly to forbearances, borrowers will be expected to pay in full at the end of the period – but they aren’t understanding that, on a large scale. COOP 5p 10/16 (but maybe wait for a bounce the premiums are nuts) REM 15p 10/16
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--China’s unemployment crisis mounts, but nobody knows true number of jobless

As many as 205 million Chinese workers can not find jobs or are unable to return to their previous posts @ @ @ @ @ Debate over China ’ s unemployment reality amid coronavirus heats up , with holes picked @ @ @ @

As many as 205 million Chinese workers cannot find jobs or are unable to return to their previous posts, according to one analyst
Debate over China’s unemployment reality amid coronavirus heats up, with holes picked in official government statistics


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--TSLA default protection trade

TSLA default protection trade

Someone took advantage of the pop in the stock and paid $ 0.44 for 631 of the June 2022 $ @ @ @ @ @ is trading around 500 .
Risking $ 0.44 to make $ 4.56 , so getting @ @ @ @ @ 1 .
This might be someone that is long TSLA bonds or has some other @ @ @ @ @ is protecting it .
TSLA had $ 11.6 billion of long term debt as of @ @ @ @ @ This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based @ @ @ @ @ article .
Do you own due diligence .

by hanudu
Someone took advantage of the pop in the stock and
paid $0.44 for 631 of the June 2022 $5 strike puts
The stock is trading around 500. Risking $0.44 to make $4.56, so getting more than than 10 to 1.
This might be someone that is long TSLA bonds or has some other exposure to its credit and is protecting it. TSLA had $11.6 billion of long term debt as of Dec 2019.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Sources of above info:
finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/options?p=TSLA&date=1655424000
www.volsage.com/activityInName.php?ticker=TSLA
finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/balance-sheet?p=TSLA
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--Number of “fallen angels” has risen as rating & subsequent downgrade activity has picked up. 30% mor

Number of “fallen angels” has risen as rating & subsequent downgrade activity has picked up. 30% mortgage defaults coming! VIX about to explode in coming weeks again?

U.S. corporate bonds suffer negative ratings moves , while analysts say more may be coming U.S. corporate bonds are being downgraded at breakneck speeds , highlighting the threat posed to companies ’ balance sheets by the coronavirus crisis .
The pace of downgrades over the last two weeks was the fastest on record in one major corporate-bond index going back to 2002 , according to BofA Global Research .
The index , known as the ICE BofAML U.S. Corporate Index , has suffered $ 569 billion in downgrades since March 16 , said Bank of America .
Credit-ratings firms downgraded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporate bonds in the index last month , the bank added .
While total downgrades remained lower than at the same point during the financial crisis , the pace accelerated in recent weeks as ratings firms and investors reassessed the ability of borrowers to repay their debts .
TLDR : Remember the mortgage default crisis of the Great Recession with fondly ?
No ?
Well you soon will refer to that bloody mess as “ the good old days ” .
Mortgage lenders are preparing for the biggest wave of delinquencies in history @ @ @ @ @ @ @ works , they may avert an even worse crisis : Mass foreclosures and mortgage market mayhem .
Borrowers who lost income from the coronavirus — already a skyrocketing number , with a record 10 million new jobless claims — can ask to skip payments for as many as 180 days at a time on federally backed mortgages , and avoid penalties and a hit to their credit scores .
But it ’ s not a payment holiday .
Eventually , they ’ ll have to make it all up .
As many as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – about 15 million households –- could stop paying if the U.S. economy remains closed through the summer or beyond , according to an estimate by Mark Zandi , chief economist for Moody ’ s Analytics .
“ This is an unprecedented event , ” said Susan Wachter , professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania .
“ The great financial crisis happened over a number of years .
This is happening in a matter of months — a matter of weeks.
” Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with no way of predicting the scope or duration of the pandemic or the damage it will wreak on the economy .
If the virus recedes soon and the economy roars back to life , then the plan will help borrowers get back on track quickly .
The greater the fallout , the harder and more expensive it will be to stave off repossessions .
Dow 15,000 Very Likely as Coronavirus Pandemic Hits U.S. Economy The coronavirus pandemic isn ’ t done yet , bringing pressure to the stock market , pros say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state saw its single-biggest increase in coronavirus deaths yesterday Coronavirus pandemic economic fallout ‘ way worse than the global financial crisis , ’ IMF chief says

Number of “fallen angels” has risen as rating & subsequent downgrade activity has picked up; & in @MoodysInvSvc worst-case scenario, default rate could spike above 20% (past GFC levels) @Reuters @SPGlobal pic.twitter.com/6d39olHH0W — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 3, 2020
Sure is interesting how all those BBBs have maintined their investment grade ratings with Fitch and S&P Global. — Brad Huston (@BradHuston) April 3, 2020
Corporate bond downgrades grow.
U.S. corporate bonds suffer negative ratings moves, while analysts say more may be coming
U.S. corporate bonds are being downgraded at breakneck speeds, highlighting the threat posed to companies’ balance sheets by the coronavirus crisis.
The pace of downgrades over the last two weeks was the fastest on record in one major corporate-bond index going back to 2002, according to BofA Global Research.
The index, known as the ICE BofAML U.S. Corporate Index, has suffered $569 billion in downgrades since March 16, said Bank of America.
Credit-ratings firms downgraded a net $560 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds in the index last month, the bank added. While total downgrades remained lower than at the same point during the financial crisis, the pace accelerated in recent weeks as ratings firms and investors reassessed the ability of borrowers to repay their debts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
30% Mortgage Defaults? They’re Coming
TLDR: Remember the mortgage default crisis of the Great Recession with fondly? No? Well you soon will refer to that bloody mess as “the good old days”.
Mortgage lenders are preparing for the biggest wave of delinquencies in history. If the plan to buy time works, they may avert an even worse crisis: Mass foreclosures and mortgage market mayhem. Borrowers who lost income from the coronavirus — already a skyrocketing number, with a record 10 million new jobless claims — can ask to skip payments for as many as 180 days at a time on federally backed mortgages, and avoid penalties and a hit to their credit scores. But it’s not a payment holiday. Eventually, they’ll have to make it all up. As many as 30% of Americans with home loans – about 15 million households –- could stop paying if the U.S. economy remains closed through the summer or beyond, according to an estimate by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “This is an unprecedented event,” said Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “The great financial crisis happened over a number of years. This is happening in a matter of months — a matter of weeks.” Meanwhile, lenders are operating in the dark, with no way of predicting the scope or duration of the pandemic or the damage it will wreak on the economy. If the virus recedes soon and the economy roars back to life, then the plan will help borrowers get back on track quickly. The greater the fallout, the harder and more expensive it will be to stave off repossessions.
FWIW.. VIX is still inside the flag.. and the CCCY has turned up pic.twitter.com/4n6If50K3p — A.Urban (@AlessioUrban) April 3, 2020
You need to click to expand to see this chart via @byHeatherLong pic.twitter.com/tXd4T45FqS — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) April 3, 2020
Unfortunately I don’t see how US avoids same fate. I hope I’m wrong. 👇 t.co/aaCLSIZFj6 — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) April 4, 2020
"WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus" t.co/1VGMy6dfYE — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) April 3, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic isn’t done yet, bringing pressure to the stock market, pros say.
New York Gov. Cuomo says state saw its single-biggest increase in coronavirus deaths yesterday
Coronavirus pandemic economic fallout ‘way worse than the global financial crisis,’ IMF chief says


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--The forthcoming cascade of job losses, bankruptcies, oil gluts, and economic destruction could far e

“ The bank is something more than men , I tell you .
It ’ s the monster .
Men made it , but they can ’ t control it.
” – John Steinbeck , The Grapes of Wrath The monster of all monsters is rampaging far and wide .
The Federal Reserve , the central bank responsible for issuing U.S. legal tender notes , is going big .
But its aim is small .
The Fed ’ s working 24/7 with singleness of purpose .
Fed Chairman Powell ’ s applying what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system .
The sole purpose is to destroy the dollar to save it .
The stakes are high .
The odds are higher .
The greatest asset bubble in human history , a bubble that was inflated by the Fed ’ s endless supply of cheap credit , has popped .
At the same time , coronavirus containment measures have collapsed the economy .
The forthcoming cascade of job losses , bankruptcies , oil gluts , and economic destruction could far exceed the Great Depression of the 1930s .
The economy may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing anything and everything it can to salvage the dollar ’ s world reserve currency status .
If the dollar falters , it ’ ll be game over for life as the world ’ s known it for the last 75 years .
Destroying the dollar to save it requires flooding the financial system with an infinite supply of cheap credit .
In the short term , the Fed must bailout the big banks and big corporations without hesitation .
But the Fed ’ s real objective is to inflate debts away via @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of it ?
An obscene insult , if you ’ re in favor of what ’ s good and upright , is that the taxpayer – that ’ s you – is supplying cash to the Fed via the U.S. Treasury to make this all happen .
A big chunk of the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus bill , auspiciously known as the CARES Act , is specifically for this purpose .
The mechanics of the Fed ’ s and Treasury ’ s match made in hell are both crude and obscure .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While it may make your blood boil .
It will also shine a light on the breadth and depth of the fake money order we ’ re indentured to .
The Treasury , if you recall , is part of the Executive Branch .
The Treasury gets its funding from taxpayers – including you .
As part of the CARES Act , the Treasury just received $ 454 billion .
What ’ s the Treasury going to do with $ 454 billion ?
Is it going to allocate the $ 454 billion to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the economy ?
Is it going to increase the nation ’ s gold reserves ?
Of course not .
The Treasury , rather , is handing over the $ 454 billion – of taxpayer money – to the Federal Reserve .
The Fed plans to lever this equity base up 10-to-1 .
The $ 454 billion contributed by taxpayers will turn into $ 4.5 trillion in credit .
Through this process , the Fed ’ s then going to supply this $ 4.5 trillion as credit to bailout big corporations – like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will take companies that would otherwise die , and will sustain them as zombies .
What ’ s more , how the Fed goes about it , will be a secret…as noted by Zero Hedge : “ The Senate-approved stimulus bill repeals the sunshine law for the Fed ’ s meetings until the President says the coronavirus threat is over or the end of the year ( spoiler alert : the coronavirus threat will never be over ) .
That could make any FOIA lawsuits to disclose details of what is taking place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been codified in a federal law.
” Now if that doesn ’ t get you exercised , nothing will .
But , wait , there ’ s more… The Upside of The Great Depression of the 2020s The Fed , the same bankers the Treasury just supplied $ 454 billion in taxpayer dollars to , is not only bailing out bankrupt American corporations .
Come Monday , the Fed will be supplying cash to foreign central banks for temporary exchange of their Treasuries .
Specifically , the Fed ’ s launching a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s called the foreign and international monetary authorities facility ( FIMA Repo Facility ) .
The purpose of the facility is to allow foreign central banks to exchange Treasuries held in custody at the Fed for U.S. dollars .
This is the seventh liquidity facility established by the Fed since the financial system seized up following the coronavirus-precipitated popping of the greatest asset bubble in human history .
What ’ s going on ?
Aren ’ t Treasuries supposed to be the safest most liquid financial asset on earth ?
Perhaps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks have Treasuries .
But they need dollars to make dollar payments .
So they ’ re selling Treasuries to get dollars…and they ’ re selling a lot of them .
In fact , for the month of March , foreign central bank Treasuries held in custody at the Fed have declined by a record $ 109 billion .
This marks the biggest monthly drop in history .
It ’ s also why the Fed ’ s launching the FIMA Repo Facility .
There is , however , a much simpler much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It doesn ’ t require a new liquidity facility .
It doesn ’ t require Jay Powell pump liquidity all around the globe .
What is it ?
Stop the madness .
Allow markets to work .
Let interest rates rise .
The financial system ’ s already collapsing .
Why not let it collapse all the way ?
Would that be suicidal ?
Would the result be far too destructive ?
Down would go the hopes and dreams of three generations , which may happen regardless .
But the experience of having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result of decades of maniac money changers does have an upside .
With a little luck , The Depression of the 2020s will gift the world honest banking for three generations or more .

“The bank is something more than men, I tell you. It’s the monster. Men made it, but they can’t control it.” – John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath
Mass Dollar Debasement
The monster of all monsters is rampaging far and wide. The Federal Reserve, the central bank responsible for issuing U.S. legal tender notes, is going big. But its aim is small.
The Fed’s working 24/7 with singleness of purpose. Fed Chairman Powell’s applying what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently called “infinite cash” to the financial system. The sole purpose is to destroy the dollar to save it. The stakes are high. The odds are higher.
The greatest asset bubble in human history, a bubble that was inflated by the Fed’s endless supply of cheap credit, has popped. At the same time, coronavirus containment measures have collapsed the economy. The forthcoming cascade of job losses, bankruptcies, oil gluts, and economic destruction could far exceed the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The economy may be toast. But the Fed’s doing anything and everything it can to salvage the dollar’s world reserve currency status. If the dollar falters, it’ll be game over for life as the world’s known it for the last 75 years.
Destroying the dollar to save it requires flooding the financial system with an infinite supply of cheap credit. In the short term, the Fed must bailout the big banks and big corporations without hesitation. But the Fed’s real objective is to inflate debts away via mass dollar debasement.
What to make of it?
Match Made In Hell
An obscene insult, if you’re in favor of what’s good and upright, is that the taxpayer – that’s you – is supplying cash to the Fed via the U.S. Treasury to make this all happen. A big chunk of the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill, auspiciously known as the CARES Act, is specifically for this purpose.
The mechanics of the Fed’s and Treasury’s match made in hell are both crude and obscure. But it is important you understand it. While it may make your blood boil. It will also shine a light on the breadth and depth of the fake money order we’re indentured to.
The Treasury, if you recall, is part of the Executive Branch. The Treasury gets its funding from taxpayers – including you. As part of the CARES Act, the Treasury just received $454 billion.
What’s the Treasury going to do with $454 billion? Is it going to allocate the $454 billion to different federal agencies and programs to spend into the economy? Is it going to increase the nation’s gold reserves?
Of course not. The Treasury, rather, is handing over the $454 billion – of taxpayer money – to the Federal Reserve. The Fed plans to lever this equity base up 10-to-1. The $454 billion contributed by taxpayers will turn into $4.5 trillion in credit.
Through this process, the Fed’s then going to supply this $4.5 trillion as credit to bailout big corporations – like Boeing. In effect, the Fed will take companies that would otherwise die, and will sustain them as zombies. What’s more, how the Fed goes about it, will be a secret…as noted by Zero Hedge:
“The Senate-approved stimulus bill repeals the sunshine law for the Fed’s meetings until the President says the coronavirus threat is over or the end of the year (spoiler alert: the coronavirus threat will never be over). That could make any FOIA lawsuits to disclose details of what is taking place in Fed meetings a non-starter since it has been codified in a federal law.”
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Now if that doesn’t get you exercised, nothing will. But, wait, there’s more…
The Upside of The Great Depression of the 2020s
The Fed, the same bankers the Treasury just supplied $454 billion in taxpayer dollars to, is not only bailing out bankrupt American corporations. Come Monday, the Fed will be supplying cash to foreign central banks for temporary exchange of their Treasuries.
Specifically, the Fed’s launching a new liquidity facility on April 6. It’s called the foreign and international monetary authorities facility (FIMA Repo Facility). The purpose of the facility is to allow foreign central banks to exchange Treasuries held in custody at the Fed for U.S. dollars.
This is the seventh liquidity facility established by the Fed since the financial system seized up following the coronavirus-precipitated popping of the greatest asset bubble in human history. What’s going on? Aren’t Treasuries supposed to be the safest most liquid financial asset on earth?
Perhaps not. You see, foreign central banks have Treasuries. But they need dollars to make dollar payments. So they’re selling Treasuries to get dollars…and they’re selling a lot of them.
In fact, for the month of March, foreign central bank Treasuries held in custody at the Fed have declined by a record $109 billion. This marks the biggest monthly drop in history. It’s also why the Fed’s launching the FIMA Repo Facility.
There is, however, a much simpler much more elegant way to reconcile these imbalances. It doesn’t require a new liquidity facility. It doesn’t require Jay Powell pump liquidity all around the globe.
What is it?
Stop the madness. Allow markets to work. Let interest rates rise.
The financial system’s already collapsing. Why not let it collapse all the way? Would that be suicidal? Would the result be far too destructive?
Down would go the hopes and dreams of three generations, which may happen regardless. But the experience of having civilization uprooted and overturned as the final result of decades of maniac money changers does have an upside.
With a little luck, The Depression of the 2020s will gift the world honest banking for three generations or more.
Sincerely,
MN Gordon
for Economic Prism


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--It’s Going to Be a Prolonged U Shaped Recovery: Former Fed Fisher

CNBC ’ s “ Halftime Report ” is joined by Richard Fisher , former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve @ @ @ @ @ for the U.S. economy .

CNBC’s “Halftime Report” is joined by Richard Fisher, former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, to discuss his outlook for the U.S. economy.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--Fed Economic Bust With Socialized “Public Health”

100 years ago , American politicians convinced Americans that a new age was here .
Individual liberty was yesterday ’ @ @ @ @ @ of the Declaration of Independence and Constitution were ideas of a bygone era .
Government @ @ @ @ @ It would micromanage , “ regulate ” and “ run ” life in America .
@ @ @ @ @ wars and intervention into our lives , the rotten fruit of that massive shift are @ @ @ @ @

100 years ago, American politicians convinced Americans that a new age was here. Individual liberty was yesterday’s news. The principles of the Declaration of Independence and Constitution were ideas of a bygone era. Government would now take over. It would micromanage, “regulate” and “run” life in America. After 100 years of never-ending wars and intervention into our lives, the rotten fruit of that massive shift are now in full bloom.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--Can the United States Survive this Political Hatred?

It is absolutely insane what the government has done to the economy .
Bank of America says 85,000 small businesses @ @ @ @ @ billion in loans since 9 am .
Meanwhile , Google has come to the aid @ @ @ @ @ allowing them to run Coronavirus Advertisements to further harm the economy and to blame every @ @ @ @ @ are using this toi simply win an election with no regard for the well being @ @ @ @ @ .
Then America ’ s favorite , AOC , claims this is a racist plot @ @ @ @ @ be given reparation payments because they are suffering more .
This is becoming really disgusting @ @ @ @ @ indeed will the United States even survive as a nation-state by 2032 .

by Martin Armstrong
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It is absolutely insane what the government has done to the economy. Bank of America says 85,000 small businesses have asked for $22.2 billion in loans since 9 am. Meanwhile, Google has come to the aid of the Democrats and is allowing them to run Coronavirus Advertisements to further harm the economy and to blame every death on Trump. They are using this toi simply win an election with no regard for the well being of people or the economy. Then America’s favorite, AOC, claims this is a racist plot and people of color should be given reparation payments because they are suffering more. This is becoming really disgusting and it makes one question indeed will the United States even survive as a nation-state by 2032.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--Trump To Sign Executive Order To Halt Exports Of Some Medical Supplies

( by Half Dollar ) Apparently “ shady brokers ” are screwing everything up .
So much so , that Tucker Carlson reports Trump issuing an executive order to halt some medical exports .
Ironically , much like the supposed alternative media likes to point out that Hillary will never accept the fact that she ’ s the reason why she lost the 2016 election , President Trump will never admit that he ’ s botched many , many things ( the most important being his continued refusal to tell people to wear actual masks ) when it comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it sure seems the Trump Administration is playing the “ why are there no medical supplies ” blame game .
It ’ s all because of all of those greedy individuals trying to make a quick buck !
Hear the report right here : Here ’ s an honest question : With global supply chain disruptions being what they are , and with the President pumping his “ P act ” , how is it that there are all of these critical medical supplies just flowing into the US , only to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” ?
I mean , if the FBI raids individuals ‘ homes for N-95 masks : Are we really to believe there are all of these “ shady brokers ” just lined up at the ports intercepting cargo containers ?
Or , is it that the medical supplies really aren ’ t coming in , and medical supplies continue to be in short supply , so we ’ re simply being lied to ?
Lying is , in fact , the official US government Covid-19 modus operandi , which we ’ ve gone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , here ’ s a little blast from the Trump Administration ’ s not to distant past :

(by Half Dollar) Apparently “shady brokers” are screwing everything up.
So much so, that Tucker Carlson reports Trump issuing an executive order to halt some medical exports.
Ironically, much like the supposed alternative media likes to point out that Hillary will never accept the fact that she’s the reason why she lost the 2016 election, President Trump will never admit that he’s botched many, many things (the most important being his continued refusal to tell people to wear actual masks) when it comes to the federal response to coronavirus.
Nonetheless, it sure seems the Trump Administration is playing the “why are there no medical supplies” blame game.
It’s all because of all of those greedy individuals trying to make a quick buck!
Hear the report right here:
Here’s an honest question: With global supply chain disruptions being what they are, and with the President pumping his “P act”, how is it that there are all of these critical medical supplies just flowing into the US, only to be immediately snatched-up by “shady brokers”?
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I mean, if the FBI raids individuals‘ homes for N-95 masks:
Are we really to believe there are all of these “shady brokers” just lined up at the ports intercepting cargo containers?
Or, is it that the medical supplies really aren’t coming in, and medical supplies continue to be in short supply, so we’re simply being lied to?
Lying is, in fact, the official US government Covid-19 modus operandi, which we’ve gone over time and time again.
Regardless, here’s a little blast from the Trump Administration’s not to distant past:
We have coordinated with U.S. organizations to transport more humanitarian relief to people in Wuhan. Personal protective equipment and other medical supplies donated by these organizations can help save lives in #China and help protect people from the #coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/57SN2TXfLP — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) February 7, 2020
Developing…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--The OPEC Meeting Could Send Oil Prices Crashing Below $10

The current optimism of analysts and the media that an end to the ongoing OPEC+ oil price spat is near is entirely unjustified .
The ongoing oil market volatility , the battle between leading producers for market share , the logistical impossibility of enforcing U.S. production cuts , and the continued demand destruction caused by COVID-19 are not issues that can be solved by an OPEC meeting .
Immediately after Trump ’ s latest OPEC twitter offensive , Saudi Arabia and Russia came out with critical statements about the impact and influence of the US president on the matter .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ reluctant to bash Trump , the real power when it comes to the oil market does not lie with the U.S. President .
The tweet by Trump claiming that MBS and Putin would agree to a 10+ million bpd production cut shows not only his overestimation of his own power over the two countries , but also shows a lack of knowledge about the underlying market fundamentals and the current demand destruction worldwide .
As former US president George W. Bush stated during his election campaign , which did not end well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy stupid ” that matters in the end .
Trump ’ s tweets and general approach to this matter suggests he and his administration are out of touch with reality .
Even if a Saudi-Russian combination would cut 10 million bpd , the oil price reaction would be minimal and very short-lived .
At present , leading oil market experts such as Vitol , Trafigura and Goldman Sachs are warning of a total demand destruction of 20 million bpd or more .
When looking at the cuts in global refinery runs , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million bpd or more .
Downstream companies are cutting back on all production as demand from industry and consumers worldwide collapses .
Lockdowns in more than half the world are having a major impact , hurting demand for oil , gas and other kinds of energy .
Cutting 10+ million bpd of production is not a real solution and it could even cause markets to react negatively .
When production cuts fail to send oil prices up , the fear in the market could hit historical highs , causing oil prices to fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the coming weeks .
The upcoming “ OPEC+ and Friends ” meeting is going to be a very tricky one .
There is the very real possibility of the meeting failing as the targets that have been set are totally unclear .
Saudi Arabia , probably supported by Abu Dhabi , called an emergency meeting , not only of OPEC+ members but of all oil-producing nations .
That means that , at least according to Western media , the US is invited and will likely attend .
In inviting the U.S. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s bluff because by attending the meeting Washington will be implicitly stating that a possible production cut agreement would include the US .
When looking at the US upstream oil and gas sector there is one thing you can state without any analysis….Washington and US oil and gas operators are not on the same page .
Suggestions of Washington being able to control or even force US oil to cut production , even via legislation , are ludicrous and would end in a mammoth legal battle .
Even if only Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely to comply , it is simply not in the US oil and gas DNA to work together on an international level .
Free market economics is a cornerstone of U.S. society and business .
The second major threat at the Monday meeting is that Saudi Arabia not appear to be at all convinced that it needs to change its current tactics .
Its targeted goals of regaining market share , forcing Russia to come to the table and bringing non-OPEC producers such as U.S. shale to their knees are working well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are willing to discuss a new agreement but only under the conditions that potential production cuts will be on the shoulders of all , not only Saudi Arabia , Russia , and UAE .
In this light – Trump ’ s demand for a more than 10 million bpd cut from Russia and Saudi Arabia is unrealistic , to say the least .
Russia ’ s position has , until now , remained unclear .
While Putin is still acting as though he has nothing to worry about , Russian oligarchs and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ options that are on the table .
For Russia , the current position taken by Trump is being seen as an opportunity to get some gifts from the U.S. very soon .
Russia might consider cooperation with the U.S. if Washington agrees to bring an end to Russian sanctions .
But that is not as important to Moscow as a strong relationship with Riyadh and OPEC going forward .
Future opportunities with Saudi Arabia are more attractive to Putin than a positive relationship with a President that may not be re-elected this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington , Riyadh , and Moscow in the coming day , there is a fourth group that is going to be vital at Monday ’ s meeting .
In order to reach a 10 million bpd cut , OPEC will have to convince all other oil-producing countries to contribute .
At present , convincing such a large list of independent nations to join these efforts seems unrealistic .
Countries such as Libya , Iran , Iraq , Brazil , and Canada , are unlikely to agree at present to cut production .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meeting will likely fail on Monday .
The real fear for markets at the moment should be sentiment and expectation .
After Trump ’ s tweet cited a 10-15 million barrel per day cut , oil prices have soared and anything less than that will be seen as a failure .
After what is looking set to be a fairly quiet weekend for energy markets , a Monday failure with plenty of media attention is likely to drive markets into a frenzy .
This fear , combined with continued demand destruction could serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next week .
With this in mind , the rational short-term approach of OPEC+ should be , especially for Riyadh and Moscow , to not move at all .
Don ’ t increase production , stand on the quay and watch the US shale and non-OPEC VLCCs fill oil storage to the brim .
If OPEC+ cuts without the assistance of other nations it will lose future leverage and markets may crash anyway .
By doing nothing , Saudi Arabia and Russia can maintain the illusion that a production cut from OPEC+ would @ @ @

By Cyril Widdershoven
The current optimism of analysts and the media that an end to the ongoing OPEC+ oil price spat is near is entirely unjustified. The ongoing oil market volatility, the battle between leading producers for market share, the logistical impossibility of enforcing U.S. production cuts, and the continued demand destruction caused by COVID-19 are not issues that can be solved by an OPEC meeting. Immediately after Trump’s latest OPEC twitter offensive, Saudi Arabia and Russia came out with critical statements about the impact and influence of the US president on the matter. While Putin and Mohammed bin Salman are reluctant to bash Trump, the real power when it comes to the oil market does not lie with the U.S. President. The tweet by Trump claiming that MBS and Putin would agree to a 10+ million bpd production cut shows not only his overestimation of his own power over the two countries, but also shows a lack of knowledge about the underlying market fundamentals and the current demand destruction worldwide.
As former US president George W. Bush stated during his election campaign, which did not end well as we know, “it’s the economy stupid” that matters in the end. Trump’s tweets and general approach to this matter suggests he and his administration are out of touch with reality. Even if a Saudi-Russian combination would cut 10 million bpd, the oil price reaction would be minimal and very short-lived. At present, leading oil market experts such as Vitol, Trafigura and Goldman Sachs are warning of a total demand destruction of 20 million bpd or more. When looking at the cuts in global refinery runs, we have already hit levels of -17 million bpd or more. Downstream companies are cutting back on all production as demand from industry and consumers worldwide collapses. Lockdowns in more than half the world are having a major impact, hurting demand for oil, gas and other kinds of energy. Cutting 10+ million bpd of production is not a real solution and it could even cause markets to react negatively. When production cuts fail to send oil prices up, the fear in the market could hit historical highs, causing oil prices to fall to levels below $10 per barrel in the coming weeks.
The upcoming “OPEC+ and Friends” meeting is going to be a very tricky one. There is the very real possibility of the meeting failing as the targets that have been set are totally unclear. Saudi Arabia, probably supported by Abu Dhabi, called an emergency meeting, not only of OPEC+ members but of all oil-producing nations. That means that, at least according to Western media, the US is invited and will likely attend. In inviting the U.S., it seems that Saudi Arabia has called Trump’s bluff because by attending the meeting Washington will be implicitly stating that a possible production cut agreement would include the US. When looking at the US upstream oil and gas sector there is one thing you can state without any analysis….Washington and US oil and gas operators are not on the same page. Suggestions of Washington being able to control or even force US oil to cut production, even via legislation, are ludicrous and would end in a mammoth legal battle. Even if only Texas representatives attend, oil companies will be unlikely to comply, it is simply not in the US oil and gas DNA to work together on an international level. Free market economics is a cornerstone of U.S. society and business.
The second major threat at the Monday meeting is that Saudi Arabia not appear to be at all convinced that it needs to change its current tactics. Its targeted goals of regaining market share, forcing Russia to come to the table and bringing non-OPEC producers such as U.S. shale to their knees are working well. Several Saudi officials have stated that they are willing to discuss a new agreement but only under the conditions that potential production cuts will be on the shoulders of all, not only Saudi Arabia, Russia, and UAE. In this light – Trump’s demand for a more than 10 million bpd cut from Russia and Saudi Arabia is unrealistic, to say the least.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Russia’s position has, until now, remained unclear. While Putin is still acting as though he has nothing to worry about, Russian oligarchs and the Russian leader are happy to debate any options that are on the table. For Russia, the current position taken by Trump is being seen as an opportunity to get some gifts from the U.S. very soon. Russia might consider cooperation with the U.S. if Washington agrees to bring an end to Russian sanctions. But that is not as important to Moscow as a strong relationship with Riyadh and OPEC going forward. Future opportunities with Saudi Arabia are more attractive to Putin than a positive relationship with a President that may not be re-elected this year.
While all eyes will be on Washington, Riyadh, and Moscow in the coming day, there is a fourth group that is going to be vital at Monday’s meeting. In order to reach a 10 million bpd cut, OPEC will have to convince all other oil-producing countries to contribute. At present, convincing such a large list of independent nations to join these efforts seems unrealistic. Countries such as Libya, Iran, Iraq, Brazil, and Canada, are unlikely to agree at present to cut production. This is yet another reason that the OPEC meeting will likely fail on Monday.
The real fear for markets at the moment should be sentiment and expectation. After Trump’s tweet cited a 10-15 million barrel per day cut, oil prices have soared and anything less than that will be seen as a failure. After what is looking set to be a fairly quiet weekend for energy markets, a Monday failure with plenty of media attention is likely to drive markets into a frenzy. This fear, combined with continued demand destruction could serve as a serious problem for oil markets next week.
With this in mind, the rational short-term approach of OPEC+ should be, especially for Riyadh and Moscow, to not move at all. Don’t increase production, stand on the quay and watch the US shale and non-OPEC VLCCs fill oil storage to the brim. If OPEC+ cuts without the assistance of other nations it will lose future leverage and markets may crash anyway. By doing nothing, Saudi Arabia and Russia can maintain the illusion that a production cut from OPEC+ would save markets.
By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--The C.D.C. is expected to advise all Americans to wear cloth masks in public.

The C.D.C .
is expected to advise all Americans to wear cloth masks in public .
So I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ help people make ( or buy ) cloth face masks .
No sew , with @ @ @ @ @ , without cutting up a t-shirt , plus also kinda badass :

by teenytinyearthling
The C.D.C. is expected to advise all Americans to wear cloth masks in public. So I’ve pulled together some links to help people make (or buy) cloth face masks.

No sew, with square fabric:
No sew, with old t-shirt:
No sew, without cutting up a t-shirt, plus also kinda badass:
Hand sew, with old t-shirt:
No sew, with paper towel:
Sewing machine, cotton fabric, basic design:
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Sewing machine, cotton fabric, more fitted design:
Sewing machine, cotton fabric, basic design, with filter pocket and nose wire:
Sewing machine, cotton fabric, fitted design, with filter pocket and nose wire:
Sewing machine and neoprene fabric:
Just buy face mask:
www.etsy.com/market/face\_mask
Just buy neck gaiter:
www.dickssportinggoods.com/f/buff-headwear
www.rei.com/c/neck-gaiters


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-04--No COVID-19 cases haven’t slowed down in the US. Testing has.

TL : DR .
The spread of COVID-19 is not yet slowing down .
The United States hit a ceiling of 100,000 total tests a day a week ago and new positive cases are not reflecting the actual spread of the virus .
The percentage of tests that have come back positive has doubled since mid-March indicating testing facilities are prioritizing the obviously sick for testing .
From March 1st until about March 23rd , the rate of reported positive cases in the US increased by about 30 % -33 % every day then began to slow steadily and is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daily reported positive cases .
Why is this not good news ?
Until that point testing increased daily as well , by around 35 % daily , until it slowed , on the 23rd .
In fact daily testing has hit a ceiling for now and for the last week the United States has been conducting around 100,000 tests a day .
This in and of itself wouldn ’ t be troubling .
If the spread is in fact slowing down then we would indeed expect the number of tests needed to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but we would also expect to see the percentage of positive tests vs total tests to stay roughly the same or decline overtime .
If testing facilities are running out of tests and prioritizing testing people who are definitely sick and obviously symptomatic we would expect to see an increase in the percentage of positive tests vs total tests .
~10 % of daily tests were positive mid March .
That rate steadily increased and roughly ~20 % of daily tests in the US are now positive .
We would also expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become increasingly overburdened .
In the US it has been reported that three times as many people have died just in the last week of COVID-19 than have died in all the previous weeks combined .

by 1jl
TL:DR. The spread of COVID-19 is not yet slowing down. The United States hit a ceiling of 100,000 total tests a day a week ago and new positive cases are not reflecting the actual spread of the virus. The percentage of tests that have come back positive has doubled since mid-March indicating testing facilities are prioritizing the obviously sick for testing.
From March 1st until about March 23rd, the rate of reported positive cases in the US increased by about 30%-33% every day then began to slow steadily and is now at around 14% increase in daily reported positive cases.
Why is this not good news? Until that point testing increased daily as well, by around 35% daily, until it slowed, on the 23rd. In fact daily testing has hit a ceiling for now and for the last week the United States has been conducting around 100,000 tests a day.
This in and of itself wouldn’t be troubling. If the spread is in fact slowing down then we would indeed expect the number of tests needed to keep up with new cases to follow suit, but we would also expect to see the percentage of positive tests vs total tests to stay roughly the same or decline overtime. If testing facilities are running out of tests and prioritizing testing people who are definitely sick and obviously symptomatic we would expect to see an increase in the percentage of positive tests vs total tests.
~10% of daily tests were positive mid March. That rate steadily increased and roughly ~20% of daily tests in the US are now positive.
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We would also expect to see many more deaths as hospitals become increasingly overburdened. In the US it has been reported that three times as many people have died just in the last week of COVID-19 than have died in all the previous weeks combined.
Sources:
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
covidtracking.com/data/us-daily
Calculations mine