investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Spot the bubble before it bursts

Spot the bubble before it bursts

Every financial crisis is exactly the same .
Investors figure out a fun new way to make money , lever up their investments , convince dumber investors and businesses to buy in , lever up some more , spread the risk around the entire financial system , and ride the wave up until it crests and crashes .
• In the Panic of 1819 , “ wildcat ” banks out west converted funding from the US bank ( central bank at the time ) into their own leveraged currency and handed out unsecured loans to land developers .
Much of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the banks went under , dragging down the US bank and US economy with them .
• The Panic of 1837 was similar , except that east-coast banks handed out money to any and every cotton farmer in exchange for a profit split .
When the cotton market crashed , so did the banks .
• The next capital-P Panic , this one in 1857 , was set off when the thousands of miles of tracks promised by mid-19th century-railroad startups stalled out in the construction phase .
The implosion among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Then there was the Really Big One — the Crash of 1929 preceding the Great Depression .
Investors in the 1920s were absolutely out of their minds .
They dished out easy money like candy in every direction and in every industry — materials , construction , retail , automobiles , railroads — believing that the good times of profitable plays and high returns would never end .
This is when the semiotics of the stock market began to shift : investors started putting their faith in the rise of the DOW @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without regard to what it stood for or the investments underneath .
When those investments turned sour , the bubble grew larger before it finally popped .
• Skipping ahead to 1987 ’ s Black Monday , we have investors so high on their own supply that they truly believe financial wizardry will save them from any downturn .
In this early era of computers , traders started using smooth-brained algorithms to hedge their portfolios .
Since the robots were protecting us , it was totally fine to lever up and throw money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Because the algorithms will surely warn us before we head off the cliff , right ?
Nah .
Stocks dove and brokerages faced margin calls that wiped away their balance sheets .
Oops .
• Reagan-Bush economic philosophy is perfectly captured by the Savings & Loan Crisis .
S & Ls were like banks , only without any oversight whatsoever and lots of accounting gimmicks to make them look not insolvent .
The clarion call for credit lines by unimaginably shitty businesses was heroically answered by S & Ls across the nation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyone who asked for them at high interest rates and then cooked their books to make it look like they had plenty of working capital and a steady stream of investment income .
Some of that income actually came from completely unrelated investments bought on margin , purportedly to hedge against credit risks .
Like a mobius strip , the margin for those investments was backed by the loan obligations from the shitty companies they invested in .
Just utter shit all the way down .
The whole thing blew up in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t learn our lesson because we never do , which brings us to the Dot Com Bubble .
Technology got shinier in the 1990s , and the investor class became ever-more transfixed by it .
Imagine .
The year is 1999 .
Dial-up speeds can load a gif in about one minute .
You think you can start an e-commerce grocery delivery business on this platform , and investors are like , oh yeah man , fuck yeah , take my money !
And even though you ’ ve reported less than $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ underwrites your IPO for a $ 5 billion valuation .
( Goldman is shorting the shit out of you on the other side of their “ Chinese wall.
” ) The fiasco was fueled Y2K-induced magical thinking by boomer investors placing highly leveraged bets on every empty LLC with “ dot-com ” in its name , and delusional boomer management in tech , media , and telecom ( and everywhere else ) going deep into debt to finance insane business plans reliant on internet connections that still make phone beeping noise .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis .
Let ’ s extend insane amounts of credit to anyone with a pulse , bundle up the worthless contracts , stamp AAA on top , sell it to shit-tier mutual funds , borrow against it to take out massive amounts of insurance on it , take out even more insurance on it to bet against it because hey why the fuck not , and then let the perpetual free money machine do its thing .
Use the perpetual free money machine to lever up investments everywhere else @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more levered investments .
Call yourself CFO of Lehman Brothers .
I have no doubt that the illustrious investor class has continued to fuck around over the last decade to build up yet another unsustainable house-of-cards shit-bubble .
And now that stocks are tanking , economic activity is screeching to a halt , bond yields are plummeting , and fed rates are reaching zero , it ’ s only a matter of time before the first dominoes start to fall .
But a market bubble implosion is also an opportunity for tremendous gains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuck out of the housing market before the subprime mortgage crisis and reaping $ 4 billion .
The only problem is that real bubbles are very hard to spot , even if they are obvious in retrospect .
Finance has become so convoluted that everything can look like a bubble if you stare at it for long enough .
So here are some ideas for where the bubble may be lurking .
I ’ ll add any other credible hypotheses to this list if the post gains interest .
Low interest rates during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to borrow money with abandon .
On the other side of the equation , investors seeking above-market returns have been dishing out these loans like candy .
Rising tides across the economy have convinced businesses and investors alike that the risk of these loans going south are immaterial .
Reminiscent of the S & L crisis , many of these loans have been given to businesses with little collateral , low liquidity , and tenuous cash flow .
If these businesses cease to operate , they will quickly become insolvent , investors will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and insurance payouts will balloon .
Per the Fed , corporate debt & loan liabilities have skyrocketed in recent years : fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMILBSNNCB Same with bonds , which will face the same problem as loans : fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CBLBSNNCB “ Other loans and advances ” and “ miscellaneous liabilities ” ( very mysterious ) have boomed : I think this is the most likely origin of a potential market collapse .
Market , bond , and loan values are dependent on the uninterrupted function of cash-poor businesses .
If any of these are serving as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the foundation for securitized products , then the crash could be spectacular .
Following the financial crisis , Congress put a muzzle on the world ’ s biggest banks through tougher capital and liquidity requirements .
They were forced to delever their balance sheets , unwind from risky investments , and toughen their lending requirements .
This didn ’ t stop the demand for risk , though , which moved into the “ shadow banking ” sector .
Investment firms like Blackstone , Blackrock , KKR , and Bridgewater and smaller investment banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ picked up where JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs left off .
We can assume they have loaded up on leverage to purchase what were considered low-risk assets amid low interest rates and broadly appreciating markets .
The extent to which they can de-lever without blowing up their balance sheets will determine whether they sink or swim .
If they sink , the repercussions will be broad and start to impact the TBTF banks that were supposed to be reined in by financial crisis-era regulations .
We can also assume , to some degree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Morgan Stanley , which do not have large consumer lending & banking businesses , were able to creatively skirt regulatory requirements and load up on riskier assets .
Goldman ’ s latest 10K shows that the firm has up to 70 % of its credit portfolio in non-investment grade or distressed corporate loans ( see # 1 above ) .
That ’ s going to be a problem .
A major part of the 2008 financial crisis was the implosion of the subprime mortgage market .
A decade later , there has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ownership and toward rental properties .
But subprime mortgages have also started to creep back up , with longer terms and higher interest rates .
Rental income & long-term mortgage payments are presumably safer for investors than the types of agreements we saw leading up to 2008 , but that logic implodes when they ’ re propped up by leverage , securitized into new investment products , and under-girded by rental and mortgage contract terms that consumers are unable to meet .
We know that there is a lot of leverage in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much — and depending on the extent of that leverage , the end result could be a disaster .
Those are my initial musings .
Still thinking through potential positions .
I think Blackstone & Morgan Stanley could be left holding the bag if the system implodes .
Urban-focused REITs could be in major trouble .
And businesses with high levels of short-term liabilities in the form of leveraged loans and bonds could start to fold .

by cinemagical414
Every financial crisis is exactly the same. Investors figure out a fun new way to make money, lever up their investments, convince dumber investors and businesses to buy in, lever up some more, spread the risk around the entire financial system, and ride the wave up until it crests and crashes.
In the Panic of 1819, “wildcat” banks out west converted funding from the US bank (central bank at the time) into their own leveraged currency and handed out unsecured loans to land developers. Much of the land turned out to be worthless, and the banks went under, dragging down the US bank and US economy with them.
The Panic of 1837 was similar, except that east-coast banks handed out money to any and every cotton farmer in exchange for a profit split. When the cotton market crashed, so did the banks.
The next capital-P Panic, this one in 1857, was set off when the thousands of miles of tracks promised by mid-19th century-railroad startups stalled out in the construction phase. The implosion among investors reverberated through the entire economy.
Then there was the Really Big One — the Crash of 1929 preceding the Great Depression. Investors in the 1920s were absolutely out of their minds. They dished out easy money like candy in every direction and in every industry — materials, construction, retail, automobiles, railroads — believing that the good times of profitable plays and high returns would never end. This is when the semiotics of the stock market began to shift: investors started putting their faith in the rise of the DOW like it was a Newtonian law, without regard to what it stood for or the investments underneath. When those investments turned sour, the bubble grew larger before it finally popped.
Skipping ahead to 1987’s Black Monday, we have investors so high on their own supply that they truly believe financial wizardry will save them from any downturn. In this early era of computers, traders started using smooth-brained algorithms to hedge their portfolios. Since the robots were protecting us, it was totally fine to lever up and throw money at anything that promised above-market returns. Because the algorithms will surely warn us before we head off the cliff, right? Nah. Stocks dove and brokerages faced margin calls that wiped away their balance sheets. Oops.
Reagan-Bush economic philosophy is perfectly captured by the Savings & Loan Crisis. S&Ls were like banks, only without any oversight whatsoever and lots of accounting gimmicks to make them look not insolvent. The clarion call for credit lines by unimaginably shitty businesses was heroically answered by S&Ls across the nation. They doled out loans to just about anyone who asked for them at high interest rates and then cooked their books to make it look like they had plenty of working capital and a steady stream of investment income. Some of that income actually came from completely unrelated investments bought on margin, purportedly to hedge against credit risks. Like a mobius strip, the margin for those investments was backed by the loan obligations from the shitty companies they invested in. Just utter shit all the way down. The whole thing blew up in the early 1990s.
We didn’t learn our lesson because we never do, which brings us to the Dot Com Bubble. Technology got shinier in the 1990s, and the investor class became ever-more transfixed by it. Imagine. The year is 1999. Dial-up speeds can load a gif in about one minute. You think you can start an e-commerce grocery delivery business on this platform, and investors are like, oh yeah man, fuck yeah, take my money! And even though you’ve reported less than $400K in total revenue, Goldman Sachs underwrites your IPO for a $5 billion valuation. (Goldman is shorting the shit out of you on the other side of their “Chinese wall.”) The fiasco was fueled Y2K-induced magical thinking by boomer investors placing highly leveraged bets on every empty LLC with “dot-com” in its name, and delusional boomer management in tech, media, and telecom (and everywhere else) going deep into debt to finance insane business plans reliant on internet connections that still make phone beeping noise.
Next is a story we know: the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. Let’s extend insane amounts of credit to anyone with a pulse, bundle up the worthless contracts, stamp AAA on top, sell it to shit-tier mutual funds, borrow against it to take out massive amounts of insurance on it, take out even more insurance on it to bet against it because hey why the fuck not, and then let the perpetual free money machine do its thing. Use the perpetual free money machine to lever up investments everywhere else. Use those levered investments to make more levered investments. Call yourself CFO of Lehman Brothers.
I have no doubt that the illustrious investor class has continued to fuck around over the last decade to build up yet another unsustainable house-of-cards shit-bubble. And now that stocks are tanking, economic activity is screeching to a halt, bond yields are plummeting, and fed rates are reaching zero, it’s only a matter of time before the first dominoes start to fall.
But a market bubble implosion is also an opportunity for tremendous gains. Think John Paulson shorting the ever-loving fuck out of the housing market before the subprime mortgage crisis and reaping $4 billion. The only problem is that real bubbles are very hard to spot, even if they are obvious in retrospect. Finance has become so convoluted that everything can look like a bubble if you stare at it for long enough.
So here are some ideas for where the bubble may be lurking. I’ll add any other credible hypotheses to this list if the post gains interest.
1. Corporate loans
Low interest rates during the last 10 years have prompted businesses to borrow money with abandon. On the other side of the equation, investors seeking above-market returns have been dishing out these loans like candy. Rising tides across the economy have convinced businesses and investors alike that the risk of these loans going south are immaterial. Reminiscent of the S&L crisis, many of these loans have been given to businesses with little collateral, low liquidity, and tenuous cash flow. If these businesses cease to operate, they will quickly become insolvent, investors will realize huge losses on their loan portfolios, and insurance payouts will balloon.
Per the Fed, corporate debt & loan liabilities have skyrocketed in recent years: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMILBSNNCB
Same with bonds, which will face the same problem as loans: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CBLBSNNCB
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“Other loans and advances” and “miscellaneous liabilities” (very mysterious) have boomed:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OLALBSNNCB
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MLLBSNNCB
I think this is the most likely origin of a potential market collapse. Market, bond, and loan values are dependent on the uninterrupted function of cash-poor businesses. If any of these are serving as collateral for other investments, or as the foundation for securitized products, then the crash could be spectacular.
2. Shadow banking
Following the financial crisis, Congress put a muzzle on the world’s biggest banks through tougher capital and liquidity requirements. They were forced to delever their balance sheets, unwind from risky investments, and toughen their lending requirements. This didn’t stop the demand for risk, though, which moved into the “shadow banking” sector. Investment firms like Blackstone, Blackrock, KKR, and Bridgewater and smaller investment banks like Moelis, Houlihan, and Jeffries picked up where JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs left off. We can assume they have loaded up on leverage to purchase what were considered low-risk assets amid low interest rates and broadly appreciating markets. The extent to which they can de-lever without blowing up their balance sheets will determine whether they sink or swim. If they sink, the repercussions will be broad and start to impact the TBTF banks that were supposed to be reined in by financial crisis-era regulations. We can also assume, to some degree at least, that firms like Goldman and Morgan Stanley, which do not have large consumer lending & banking businesses, were able to creatively skirt regulatory requirements and load up on riskier assets. Goldman’s latest 10K shows that the firm has up to 70% of its credit portfolio in non-investment grade or distressed corporate loans (see #1 above). That’s going to be a problem.
3. Leveraged real estate
A major part of the 2008 financial crisis was the implosion of the subprime mortgage market. A decade later, there has been a major shift away from home ownership and toward rental properties. But subprime mortgages have also started to creep back up, with longer terms and higher interest rates. Rental income & long-term mortgage payments are presumably safer for investors than the types of agreements we saw leading up to 2008, but that logic implodes when they’re propped up by leverage, securitized into new investment products, and under-girded by rental and mortgage contract terms that consumers are unable to meet. We know that there is a lot of leverage in this sector — investment firms attest to as much — and depending on the extent of that leverage, the end result could be a disaster.
Those are my initial musings. Still thinking through potential positions. I think Blackstone & Morgan Stanley could be left holding the bag if the system implodes. Urban-focused REITs could be in major trouble. And businesses with high levels of short-term liabilities in the form of leveraged loans and bonds could start to fold.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Biggest Recession Since The Great Depression?

Economic activity is at a standstill .
We must rely principally on alternative data to measure this because of how quickly the collapse in activity has occurred .
An example of this is the number of riders on the NYC subway .
On March 17th , there were 1.8 million riders which was down from 5.6 million on the same day in the prior year .
OpenTable shows there was an 84 % decline in bookings on March 17th compared to last year .
Many cities literally can ’ t get any worse .
New York , Los Angeles , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Boston , and Toronto all had 0 bookings .
An optimist would say that will make for easy comps in 2021 .
A pessimist will say firms won ’ t make it to 2021 if they have no sales now .
If you own a restaurant that can ’ t open for a few weeks , it ’ s cheaper to end the business than to take out a loan .
What ’ s the loan for if there are no revenues ?
The S & P 500 has had such a bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of the 18th .
The 3rd worst performing industry year to date is hotels , resorts , and cruise lines which is down 66.81 % .
The hotel industry is asking the government for a $ 150 billion bailout .
The worry for shareholders is that the equity gets wiped out .
The situation is dire for these firms even if a cure for COVID-19 is found this summer and economic activity gets back to normal in a few months .
As you can see from the chart below , at this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is usually in the high 60 % range as we are in spring break season .
The past week was dreadful for these firms as occupancy has fallen to the low 50 % range .
That weakness will continue in the next few weeks as shutdowns only amp up .
If you ’ re curious , the airlines are also in dire shape .
On Wednesday , Delta announced it would shrink its flight coverage by 70 % .
The firm is eliminating 80 % of its international flights in the next 2-3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be $ 2 billion less than last month .
Small businesses are in a world of hurt even though the economic shutdown in America is only in its early stages .
As you can see from the chart below , the yearly change in sales on March 13th was disastrous for arts & entertainment , lodging , restaurants , and bars .
We already know from the OpenTable data that restaurant sales got worse in the following days .
Many of these firms will go out of business this spring because small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
According to JP Morgan , half of small firms have 15 days of cash or less .
As we have been discussing this week , estimates for economic growth have come down dramatically .
The most comprehensive negative outlook came from JP Morgan on Wednesday .
The table below is shocking to look at .
The numbers don ’ t seem real .
No one would believe them if you showed them to investors 4 months ago .
As you can see , America and Europe are expected to have contractions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Because China ’ s weakness is in Q1 , rather than Q2 , global growth is actually expected to be worse in Q1 than Q2 .
Q1 Chinese growth could be -40.8 % and Q1 global growth could be -12 % .
The recovery is expected to be swift as JP Morgan sees a ‘ V shaped ’ recovery .
China will have 57.4 % Q2 growth , while America and Europe will have 8 % and 45 % Q3 growth .
That will lead to 19.1 % Q3 global growth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a forward PE basis .
That ’ s to be expected because the S & P 600 has fallen about 41 % since February 20th .
These firms have fallen sharply because access to capital is becoming constrained .
Many of these firms aren ’ t profitable .
As you can see from the chart below , the S & P 600 ’ s PE ratio fell to 10.5 on March 18th which is very close to its fall of 2008 trough .
The counterpoint to the low PE argument is that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outlook was uncertain in October 2008 as well .
Earnings were terrible in 2009 and they will be terrible in 2020 .
That ’ s a given .
In extreme market circumstances , risk assets trade together .
We ’ ve even seen treasuries and stocks sell off together as liquidation events occur .
When stocks fall vertically , they fall together .
That ’ s why we ’ ve seen the percentage of S & P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average in the low to mid-single digits .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ below , the implied correlation of the S & P 500 has risen to 86.35 % .
During Wednesday ’ s session , the correlation defied the basic rules of math by getting above 100 % to 101.25 % .
That ’ s the ultimate sign of a panic .
It doesn ’ t get any worse .
China ’ s economic recovery provides a glimmer of hope for America and Europe which desperately need any good news they can get .
In China , FedEx stated demand rebounded more than expected .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses are operating and 90 % to 95 % of large manufacturing firms are operating .
The chart below shows the congestion index in the main cities .
Shenzhen has 85 % of normalized traffic , while Hubei hasn ’ t recovered at all .
China is up to 61 % of its normalized coal consumption .
Remember , China started dealing with COVID-19 in late January .
This is about 2 months later .
We could be seeing good headlines in America starting in May .
The hotels , restaurants , airlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grocery stores ) are getting hammered .
JP Morgan expects the deepest recession since the Great Depression .
The good news is anything less , is a positive .
The bad news is if the weakness lasts into the 2nd half of 2020 , we could see risk assets adjust to the downside .
Small cap stocks are the cheapest since 2008 .
Stocks are moving in perfect synchronicity which is a sign of extreme panic .
The Chinese economy is well on its way to a recovery except in Hubei which is @ @ @ @

by UPFINA
Economic activity is at a standstill. We must rely principally on alternative data to measure this because of how quickly the collapse in activity has occurred. An example of this is the number of riders on the NYC subway. On March 17th, there were 1.8 million riders which was down from 5.6 million on the same day in the prior year. OpenTable shows there was an 84% decline in bookings on March 17th compared to last year. Many cities literally can’t get any worse. New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, DC, Boston, and Toronto all had 0 bookings. An optimist would say that will make for easy comps in 2021. A pessimist will say firms won’t make it to 2021 if they have no sales now. If you own a restaurant that can’t open for a few weeks, it’s cheaper to end the business than to take out a loan. What’s the loan for if there are no revenues?
The S&P 500 has had such a bad year that only 3 sub-industries were up as of the 18th. The 3rd worst performing industry year to date is hotels, resorts, and cruise lines which is down 66.81%. The hotel industry is asking the government for a $150 billion bailout. The worry for shareholders is that the equity gets wiped out. The situation is dire for these firms even if a cure for COVID-19 is found this summer and economic activity gets back to normal in a few months. As you can see from the chart below, at this point in the year occupancy in hotels is usually in the high 60% range as we are in spring break season. The past week was dreadful for these firms as occupancy has fallen to the low 50% range. That weakness will continue in the next few weeks as shutdowns only amp up.
The hotel business is crashing pic.twitter.com/k38aT9NDG4 — Sam Ro 📉 (@SamRo) March 18, 2020
If you’re curious, the airlines are also in dire shape. On Wednesday, Delta announced it would shrink its flight coverage by 70%. The firm is eliminating 80% of its international flights in the next 2-3 months. It expects sales in March to be $2 billion less than last month.
Small Business Disaster
Small businesses are in a world of hurt even though the economic shutdown in America is only in its early stages. As you can see from the chart below, the yearly change in sales on March 13th was disastrous for arts & entertainment, lodging, restaurants, and bars.
We already know from the OpenTable data that restaurant sales got worse in the following days. Many of these firms will go out of business this spring because small businesses don’t have flexible financing. According to JP Morgan, half of small firms have 15 days of cash or less.
JP Morgan Predicts A Depression
As we have been discussing this week, estimates for economic growth have come down dramatically. The most comprehensive negative outlook came from JP Morgan on Wednesday. The table below is shocking to look at. The numbers don’t seem real. No one would believe them if you showed them to investors 4 months ago.
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These GDP forecasts from JPMorgan are staggering: *China -41% in Q1
*Eurozone -22% in Q2
*US -14% in Q2
All q/q annualised rates “There is no longer doubt that the longest global expansion on record will end this quarter.” (h/t for @jennablan for flagging) pic.twitter.com/50sFd2HJuT — Adam Samson (@adamsamson) March 18, 2020
As you can see, America and Europe are expected to have contractions of 14% and 22% in Q2. Because China’s weakness is in Q1, rather than Q2, global growth is actually expected to be worse in Q1 than Q2. Q1 Chinese growth could be -40.8% and Q1 global growth could be -12%. The recovery is expected to be swift as JP Morgan sees a ‘V shaped’ recovery. China will have 57.4% Q2 growth, while America and Europe will have 8% and 45% Q3 growth. That will lead to 19.1% Q3 global growth.
Small Caps Are Cheap
Small cap stocks are extremely cheap on a forward PE basis. That’s to be expected because the S&P 600 has fallen about 41% since February 20th. These firms have fallen sharply because access to capital is becoming constrained. Many of these firms aren’t profitable. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 600’s PE ratio fell to 10.5 on March 18th which is very close to its fall of 2008 trough.
The counterpoint to the low PE argument is that the earnings outlook is uncertain. However, the outlook was uncertain in October 2008 as well. Earnings were terrible in 2009 and they will be terrible in 2020. That’s a given.
Synchronicity
In extreme market circumstances, risk assets trade together. We’ve even seen treasuries and stocks sell off together as liquidation events occur. When stocks fall vertically, they fall together. That’s why we’ve seen the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average in the low to mid-single digits. As you can see from the chart below, the implied correlation of the S&P 500 has risen to 86.35%. During Wednesday’s session, the correlation defied the basic rules of math by getting above 100% to 101.25%. That’s the ultimate sign of a panic. It doesn’t get any worse.
Implied Correlation defies the laws of statistics with an intraday high of 101.25%. Panic doesn't speak louder than that. Settles at a new high of 86.35 pic.twitter.com/q47lZvw7Vc — Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) March 18, 2020
China’s Recovery
China’s economic recovery provides a glimmer of hope for America and Europe which desperately need any good news they can get. In China, FedEx stated demand rebounded more than expected. 65% to 70% of small businesses are operating and 90% to 95% of large manufacturing firms are operating. The chart below shows the congestion index in the main cities.
Shenzhen has 85% of normalized traffic, while Hubei hasn’t recovered at all. China is up to 61% of its normalized coal consumption. Remember, China started dealing with COVID-19 in late January. This is about 2 months later. We could be seeing good headlines in America starting in May.
Conclusion
The hotels, restaurants, airlines, and small businesses (outside of grocery stores) are getting hammered. JP Morgan expects the deepest recession since the Great Depression. The good news is anything less, is a positive. The bad news is if the weakness lasts into the 2nd half of 2020, we could see risk assets adjust to the downside. Small cap stocks are the cheapest since 2008. Stocks are moving in perfect synchronicity which is a sign of extreme panic. The Chinese economy is well on its way to a recovery except in Hubei which is where COVID-19 started.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--THIS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT: Truckers appeal to US to keep rest stops, gas stations open: “In this c

THIS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT: Truckers appeal to US to keep rest stops, gas stations open: “In this current crisis, we ask for your help in supplying America, together.”

As the United States gradually shuts down in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus , the trucking and tire industry is appealing to the government to allow gas stations , rest stops , and repair facilities to remain open to keep deliveries rolling .
Pennsylvania ’ s Department of Transportation , for example , shut down all of its rest areas and welcome centers to the public on Tuesday .
On Wednesday , it agreed to reopen the parking lots at nearly half of them at the request of truckers and the Trump administration .
Other states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to try to prevent the spread of the highly contagious virus and discourage people from traveling .
That ’ s a stupid idea and should be abandoned posthaste .
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association , which counts 160,000 members nationwide , said closures were giving drivers the impression that they were being asked to put productivity ahead of their own personal safety .
“ Rest areas aren ’ t simply places to purchase snacks and beverages from vending machines – they are invaluable locations to rest when fatigued , ” the association @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao .
It said truckers “ rely on rest areas to do just that – rest !
” A spokesman for Chao said the department was asking states to keep rest stops open for parking – even if they no longer had public employees on site .
The issue is especially urgent since the U.S. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration ( FMCSA ) issued an emergency order on Friday to waive the usual time-off requirements for commercial vehicle drivers transporting emergency coronavirus relief .
On Wednesday , FMCSA said it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ categories of deliveries , including fuel and raw materials – such as paper , plastic or alcohol – used in the manufacture of essential items like sanitizers .
Let the trucks roll .
And do everything you can to keep the drivers comfortable .
They ’ re performing an absolutely essential service .

via mercurynews
As the United States gradually shuts down in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the trucking and tire industry is appealing to the government to allow gas stations, rest stops, and repair facilities to remain open to keep deliveries rolling. Pennsylvania’s Department of Transportation, for example, shut down all of its rest areas and welcome centers to the public on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it agreed to reopen the parking lots at nearly half of them at the request of truckers and the Trump administration. Other states are considering similar closures, officials said, to try to prevent the spread of the highly contagious virus and discourage people from traveling.
That’s a stupid idea and should be abandoned posthaste.
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The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which counts 160,000 members nationwide, said closures were giving drivers the impression that they were being asked to put productivity ahead of their own personal safety. “Rest areas aren’t simply places to purchase snacks and beverages from vending machines – they are invaluable locations to rest when fatigued,” the association said in a letter to the U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao. It said truckers “rely on rest areas to do just that – rest!” A spokesman for Chao said the department was asking states to keep rest stops open for parking – even if they no longer had public employees on site. The issue is especially urgent since the U.S. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) issued an emergency order on Friday to waive the usual time-off requirements for commercial vehicle drivers transporting emergency coronavirus relief. On Wednesday, FMCSA said it was expanding the order to include other categories of deliveries, including fuel and raw materials – such as paper, plastic or alcohol – used in the manufacture of essential items like sanitizers.
Let the trucks roll. And do everything you can to keep the drivers comfortable. They’re performing an absolutely essential service.
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--The SCOTUS issued a major 5-4 decision that illegal immigrants who use someone else’s information wh

The SCOTUS issued a major 5-4 decision that illegal immigrants who use someone else’s information when filling out tax forms for employment can face criminal charges. How is this not unanimous?

The Supreme Court has been giving President Donald Trump recent wins .
And in a close decision , they have handed him another one .
The nation ’ s highest court recently took on a case involving undocumented workers and ruled that illegal aliens who steal Americans ’ Social Security numbers can be charged with a crime .
The SCOTUS issued a major 5-4 decision that illegal immigrants who use someone else ’ s information when filling out tax forms for employment can face criminal charges .
All four liberal justices — Stephen Breyer , Ruth Bader Ginsburg , Sonia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not believe that illegals who commit these crimes should face criminal charges .
This should be 9-0 .
WTF is wrong with SCOTUS ?
Seriously , it can take a lot of time and money to sort out tax problems created by some random stranger reporting income with your social security number .
Happened to my dad many years ago .
Retired professional on a US government pension and doing professional contract work part time for US government agency .
Some restaurant worker in Brooklyn used his social security number to get the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perp ’ s income with that social security number .
Dad did his taxes , and then got a notice from the IRS about additional taxes he owed on income that he failed to report on his tax return .
Took a couple of years to get it straightened out , even though the application of a speck of common sense would have made clear that my dad was not bussing tables in Brooklyn under another name .

The SCOTUS issued a major 5-4 decision that illegal immigrants who use someone else’s information when filling out tax forms for employment can face criminal charges. t.co/eOA1W8udhu — Sassy Scarlett (@Southrngirl77) March 19, 2020
The Supreme Court has been giving President Donald Trump recent wins. And in a close decision, they have handed him another one. The nation’s highest court recently took on a case involving undocumented workers and ruled that illegal aliens who steal Americans’ Social Security numbers can be charged with a crime. The SCOTUS issued a major 5-4 decision that illegal immigrants who use someone else’s information when filling out tax forms for employment can face criminal charges. All four liberal justices — Stephen Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan — did not believe that illegals who commit these crimes should face criminal charges.
This should be 9-0. WTF is wrong with SCOTUS?
Seriously, it can take a lot of time and money to sort out tax problems created by some random stranger reporting income with your social security number. Happened to my dad many years ago. Retired professional on a US government pension and doing professional contract work part time for US government agency. Some restaurant worker in Brooklyn used his social security number to get the job, and the employer reporter the perp’s income with that social security number. Dad did his taxes, and then got a notice from the IRS about additional taxes he owed on income that he failed to report on his tax return. Took a couple of years to get it straightened out, even though the application of a speck of common sense would have made clear that my dad was not bussing tables in Brooklyn under another name.
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h/t Deplora


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--All Californians, Nearly 40 Million People, Have Been Ordered To Stay Home To Stop The Spread Of The

All Californians, Nearly 40 Million People, Have Been Ordered To Stay Home To Stop The Spread Of The Coronavirus

SACRAMENTO ( CBS SF/AP ) — Stating that the people of California need to do more in the face of the growing coronavirus pandemic , Gov .
Gavin Newsom Thursday evening announced a statewide stay-at-home order to reduce the threat of COVID-19 .
Newsom ’ s office had already hinted at the weighty nature of what the governor would be talking about , noting that a “ major announcement ” would be made during a 6:30 p.m. address on the state ’ s response to the COVID-19 outbreak .
“ Our fate and future is inside of us .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Newsom said .
“ We can make decisions to meet moments .
This is a moment we need to make tough decisions.
” Newsom continued : “ A state as large as ours — a nation-state — is many parts .
But , at the end of the day , we ’ re one body .
And there ’ s a recognition of our interdependence that requires of this moment that we direct a statewide order for people to stay at home.
” The order matches the one that went into effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , shutting down all but essential businesses including grocery stores , takeout and delivery restaurants , banks , gas stations and laundromats and banks .

SACRAMENTO (CBS SF/AP) — Stating that the people of California need to do more in the face of the growing coronavirus pandemic, Gov. Gavin Newsom Thursday evening announced a statewide stay-at-home order to reduce the threat of COVID-19.
Newsom’s office had already hinted at the weighty nature of what the governor would be talking about, noting that a “major announcement” would be made during a 6:30 p.m. address on the state’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
“Our fate and future is inside of us. We’re not victims of circumstance,” Newsom said. “We can make decisions to meet moments. This is a moment we need to make tough decisions.”
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Newsom continued: “A state as large as ours — a nation-state — is many parts. But, at the end of the day, we’re one body. And there’s a recognition of our interdependence that requires of this moment that we direct a statewide order for people to stay at home.”
The order matches the one that went into effect for the Bay Area earlier this week, shutting down all but essential businesses including grocery stores, takeout and delivery restaurants, banks, gas stations and laundromats and banks.
sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-pandemic-gov-newsom-issues-statewide-stay-at-home-order/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Swamp fighter Tulsi Gabbard endorses Creepy Joe Biden. Hmm

Predictably odd , generally sketchy , and Tucker Carlson favorite , Representative Tulsi Gabbard , suspended her campaign for the 2020 democrat presidential nomination today while endorsing Joe Biden .
According to her brother posting on Facebook , Bernie Sanders refused the accept an endorsement .
Go figure .
Announcement – “ [ T ] oday , I ’ m suspending my presidential campaign , and offering my full support to Vice President Joe Biden in his quest to bring our country together.
” I will continue to advocate for a 21st century foreign policy .
One based on mutual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where we as a community of nations can work together to overcome the challenges that our people face — preventing and stopping pandemics like the coronavirus that is now affecting all of us , tackling climate change , combating terrorism , and removing the existential threat of nuclear war which hangs over the heads of all of us .
[ … ] “ I want to extend my best wishes to my friends Senator Bernie Sanders , his wife Jane , Nina Turner and their many supporters for the work they ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Senator Sanders ’ love for our country and the American people and his sincere desire to improve the lives of all Americans.
” ( link )

Predictably odd, generally sketchy, and Tucker Carlson favorite, Representative Tulsi Gabbard, suspended her campaign for the 2020 democrat presidential nomination today while endorsing Joe Biden. According to her brother posting on Facebook, Bernie Sanders refused the accept an endorsement. Go figure.
Announcement – “[T]oday, I’m suspending my presidential campaign, and offering my full support to Vice President Joe Biden in his quest to bring our country together.”
I will continue to advocate for a 21st century foreign policy. One based on mutual respect and cooperation instead of confrontation, where we as a community of nations can work together to overcome the challenges that our people face — preventing and stopping pandemics like the coronavirus that is now affecting all of us, tackling climate change, combating terrorism, and removing the existential threat of nuclear war which hangs over the heads of all of us.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
[…] “I want to extend my best wishes to my friends Senator Bernie Sanders, his wife Jane, Nina Turner and their many supporters for the work they’ve done. I have a great appreciation for Senator Sanders’ love for our country and the American people and his sincere desire to improve the lives of all Americans.” (link)
(Link)


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Wisconsin DHS: Cases Jump 50% in a day to 155, Community Spread in Brown, Dane, Milwaukee, and Kenos

Wisconsin DHS: Cases Jump 50% in a day to 155, Community Spread in Brown, Dane, Milwaukee, and Kenosha Counties

DHS officials said the person was exposed while traveling within the U.S. and was in isolation at home .
Where the hell is Pierce county ?
This is the second confirmed case in Dane County .
Another case has been confirmed in Pierce County .
3 more cases of coronavirus confirmed in Wisconsin DHS officials as well as the Fond du Lac County Health Department and Waukesha County Public Health Department made the announcement Wednesday afternoon .
The release said a Waukesha County patient was exposed to the virus while traveling in the US and internationally .
The patient is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two Fond du Lac patients were also exposed while traveling , one through US travel and the other internationally .
One of the patients is in a hospital , while the other is being isolated at home .
County health officials said they are working to determine the people who have been in contact with each of the patients to test others who are showing symptoms .
Health officials have not said where the patients are from in Fond du Lac and Waukesha Counties .
Kimberly Mueller , Health Officer for the Fond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are working with their partners and local hospital systems to “ ensure we are getting residents the care and testing they need to ensure we are protecting the community as a whole.
” Health officials are working to find out who all three patients have been in contact with , and will isolate or quarantine them , and also test anyone who is showing symptoms .
Agnesian Health Care in Fond du Lac says “ testing locations are being set up ” and will be operational by Thursday .
The Department of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the past 14 days to locations where there is community spread of the virus , both international and national , are asked to self-quarantine and monitor for symptoms during that time .
Evers said 37 residents will be returning to the state from a Princess cruise ship where they may have been exposed to the virus .
The two new patients live in Dane County and had contact with the other patient who was diagnosed earlier this week .
MADISON — If you live in any of the states touching Wisconsin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from knowing how many people have been tested for COVID-19 at state facilities .
Getting answers in Wisconsin is much more difficult .
The Evers administration says a push to expand access to novel coronavirus testing makes it difficult to provide the numbers that could give the public health crisis additional context .
Wisconsin ’ s Department of Health Services is releasing numbers about positive and negative tests but is not telling the public how many tests are pending .
That means right now , there ’ s no way to quantify how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The number of pending cases becomes less relevant because it is not sort of immediately necessary for the public health response , ” DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm said during a press conference on Thursday .
“ The tests are more dispersed now , ” Palm added when pressed further .
“ So what ’ s being reported are positive results and negative results .
So we do not have full visibility of all the tests that are taking place.
” Confirmed active cases of coronavirus in Wisconsin jumps to 18 , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current cases are in the following locations : 6 in Fond du Lac County 4 in Dane County 3 in Sheboygan County 2 in Milwaukee County 1 each in Racine , Waukesha , and Pierce Counties .
1 other case in Dane County has since recovered from the disease .
Fond Du Lac : The county says five of the patients traveled on an Egyptian river cruise .
The health department obtained a passenger manifest and is contacting other Fond du Lac County residents who were on that cruise .
The sixth patient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States .
We don ’ t know how the patients are doing .
Health officials are asking if you think you have COVID-19 symptoms , especially if you ’ ve been in contact with someone on a recent Egyptian river cruise , stay home and call health officials at 1-844-225-0147 .
Here is a county-by-county breakdown of the positive cases : The number of negative tests is now at 246 .
On Friday , the state said there were 19 positive cases , so 8 additional positive tests came in over the @ @ @ @

DHS officials said the person was exposed while traveling within the U.S. and was in isolation at home.
fox6now.com/2020/03/09/wisconsin-dhs-2nd-person-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-patient-in-pierce-county/
Where the hell is Pierce county?
www.co.pierce.wi.us/
This is the second confirmed case in Dane County. Another case has been confirmed in Pierce County.
www.wbay.com/content/news/Second-case-of-COVID-19-confirmed-in-Wisconsin-568644601.html
3 more cases of coronavirus confirmed in Wisconsin
DHS officials as well as the Fond du Lac County Health Department and Waukesha County Public Health Department made the announcement Wednesday afternoon.
The release said a Waukesha County patient was exposed to the virus while traveling in the US and internationally. The patient is now isolated at home.
Officials said two Fond du Lac patients were also exposed while traveling, one through US travel and the other internationally. One of the patients is in a hospital, while the other is being isolated at home.
County health officials said they are working to determine the people who have been in contact with each of the patients to test others who are showing symptoms.
www.channel3000.com/three-more-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-wisconsin/
Fond du Lac County setting up coronavirus test sites amid 2 confirmed cases
Health officials have not said where the patients are from in Fond du Lac and Waukesha Counties.
Kimberly Mueller, Health Officer for the Fond du Lac County Health Department, says they are working with their partners and local hospital systems to “ensure we are getting residents the care and testing they need to ensure we are protecting the community as a whole.”
Health officials are working to find out who all three patients have been in contact with, and will isolate or quarantine them, and also test anyone who is showing symptoms.
Agnesian Health Care in Fond du Lac says “testing locations are being set up” and will be operational by Thursday.
The Department of Health Services says anyone who has traveled in the past 14 days to locations where there is community spread of the virus, both international and national, are asked to self-quarantine and monitor for symptoms during that time.
www.wbay.com/content/news/Wisconsin-DHS-3-new-cases-of-COVID-19-reported-2-in-Fond-du-Lac-Co-568714211.html
Gov. Evers declares public health emergency for Wisconsin over coronavirus
Evers said 37 residents will be returning to the state from a Princess cruise ship where they may have been exposed to the virus.
fox6now.com/2020/03/12/gov-evers-state-officials-to-discuss-states-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic/
2 pending cases of coronavirus in Kenosha County
fox6now.com/2020/03/12/2-pending-cases-of-coronavirus-in-kenosha-county-we-do-not-know-for-sure-when-the-results-will-be-available/
2 new cases Dane County (madison area)
The two new patients live in Dane County and had contact with the other patient who was diagnosed earlier this week.
www.wisn.com/article/coronavirus-2-new-positive-cases-diagnosed-in-wisconsin/31448226#
Wisconsin withholds coronavirus testing details that other states release
MADISON — If you live in any of the states touching Wisconsin, you are only a few clicks away from knowing how many people have been tested for COVID-19 at state facilities.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Getting answers in Wisconsin is much more difficult.
The Evers administration says a push to expand access to novel coronavirus testing makes it difficult to provide the numbers that could give the public health crisis additional context.
Wisconsin’s Department of Health Services is releasing numbers about positive and negative tests but is not telling the public how many tests are pending. That means right now, there’s no way to quantify how many total samples have been tested.
“The number of pending cases becomes less relevant because it is not sort of immediately necessary for the public health response,” DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm said during a press conference on Thursday.
“The tests are more dispersed now,” Palm added when pressed further. “So what’s being reported are positive results and negative results. So we do not have full visibility of all the tests that are taking place.”
fox6now.com/2020/03/12/wisconsin-withholds-coronavirus-testing-details-that-other-states-release/
Confirmed active cases of coronavirus in Wisconsin jumps to 18, more than doubling in last 24 hours
The current cases are in the following locations:
6 in Fond du Lac County
4 in Dane County
3 in Sheboygan County
2 in Milwaukee County
1 each in Racine, Waukesha, and Pierce Counties.
1 other case in Dane County has since recovered from the disease.
www.tmj4.com/news/national/coronavirus/confirmed-cases-of-coronavirus-in-wisconsin-jumps-to-19-more-than-doubling-in-last-24-hours
Fond Du Lac: The county says five of the patients traveled on an Egyptian river cruise. The health department obtained a passenger manifest and is contacting other Fond du Lac County residents who were on that cruise.
The sixth patient contracted the coronavirus while traveling in the United States.
We don’t know how the patients are doing.
Health officials are asking if you think you have COVID-19 symptoms, especially if you’ve been in contact with someone on a recent Egyptian river cruise, stay home and call health officials at 1-844-225-0147.
www.wbay.com/content/news/Six-people-confirmed-with-COVID-19-in-Fond-du-Lac-County-568779191.html
Here is a county-by-county breakdown of the positive cases:
Dane – 6 (1 recovered)
Fond du Lac – 6
Milwaukee – 6
Pierce – 1
Racine – 1
Sheboygan – 3
Waukesha – 3
Winnebago – 1
The number of negative tests is now at 246.
On Friday, the state said there were 19 positive cases, so 8 additional positive tests came in over the latest 24-hour period.
fox11online.com/news/coronavirus/saturday-update-wisconsin-now-has-27-positive-coronavirus-cases
AO


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Michigan Activates National Guard As Pandemic Intensifies

LANSING ( WWJ ) – In another move to help prepare during the fight against coronavirus , Governor Gretchen Whitmer @ @ @ @ @ Army National Guard .
Whitmer said the National Guard will assist the Michigan Department of @ @ @ @ @ assembling and delivering critical personal protective gear , such as gloves , gowns and face @ @ @ @ @ public health departments .

LANSING (WWJ) – In another move to help prepare during the fight against coronavirus, Governor Gretchen Whitmer is calling up the Michigan Army National Guard.
Whitmer said the National Guard will assist the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services with assembling and delivering critical personal protective gear, such as gloves, gowns and face shields, to various local public health departments.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
wwjnewsradio.radio.com/articles/news/michigan-activates-national-guard-as-pandemic-intensifies


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Washington Gov. I’m halting elective surgeries and dental services that require the use of medical p

Washington Gov. I’m halting elective surgeries and dental services that require the use of medical protective equipment.

I ’ m halting elective surgeries and dental services that require the use of medical protective equipment .
We need @ @ @ @ @ our health care workers as they work on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic @

I’m halting elective surgeries and dental services that require the use of medical protective equipment.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We need to preserve that equipment for our health care workers as they work on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic.
I’m halting elective surgeries and dental services that require the use of medical protective equipment. We need to preserve that equipment for our health care workers as they work on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic. t.co/HbMFwqlvL9 — Governor Jay Inslee (@GovInslee) March 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Karatbars: 2020 Is A Great Year To Buy Gold

Karatbars International GmbH has proven to be a company that loves and believes in gold .
In fact , the whole existence of the company is built on gold .
It plans to restore the glory days of gold , to push it beyond what it is currently being used for .
This Company offers physical gold in small denominations to make it affordable to everybody and is in the process of establishing a complete ecosystem based to gold .
The CEO and founder of Karatbars , Harald Seiz , is also a long time admirer of gold and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ love for gold that led him to establish a gold-oriented company .
Seiz believes that gold can serve more purposes than it currently does .
One of his main goals is to make gold a more accessible asset that can be used as a method of payment and also as an investment using the unique abilities of blockchain technology .
Harald Seiz says that gold , as its history has shown , will never lose value or become useless .
Even if all other commodities fail , gold will prevail .
The relationship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumers , and the economy is one that will never change .
Hence , gold will never lose its relevance , neither in this life nor in the next .
Why 2020 is the year for gold , according to the CEO of Karatbars Now , Harald Seiz claims that , although it is always a good time to buy gold due to its inherent properties and characteristics , 2020 is actually an extraordinarily great year for gold .
Investors should probably get their hands on as much gold as they can get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are specific years in which buying gold proves to be a life-changing decision .
And , according to Seiz , 2020 is such a year .
He stated that the biggest reason why investors should get hold of some gold is the outbreak of the Coronavirus .
The fear and pandemonium caused by this outbreak are greater than just about anything we have seen in recent years , and it is arguably bigger than the threat posed by the Ebola virus .
According to Harald Seiz , the government is still clueless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , all the while the person sitting right next to you might be affected , without you or them even knowing about it .
The world seems entirely unprepared .
Seiz thinks that it will take quite some time for the authorities to develop a cure , and , because of this , he expects that gold will make a massive leap in price .
Secondly , he pointed to the U.S. stock market that has been losing ground in what is looking to become its worst week in years .
He suspects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Coronavirus as fears over the deadly disease have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 27,000 for the first time since October , and the full effect of this may become very visible soon .
Harald Seiz claims that , although gold has not risen as high as it was expected to , due to the global pandemic disease , the fact that we have watched the Dow go from 29,500 points to below 21,000 in less than a week is reason enough to know that the price of gold is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to deteriorate in the coming days , weeks , and months .
Furthermore , Seiz also said that the U.S. budget , which is an ongoing disaster , is a massive booster for gold , as the U.S. national debt is now at approximately $ 23.39 trillion and continues to climb exponentially .
He claims that any approach taken to service this debt will only prove to be beneficial for gold , as the government will need to either increase taxes and cut down on spending or debase the U.S. dollar , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for gold .
Harald Seiz also believes that the rise of Bernie Sanders as a candidate for the United States presidency is a piece of very welcoming news for gold .
Sanders ’ s policy of taxing billionaires and taking on Wall Street isn ’ t exactly the remedy to the already nervous market .
Harald Seiz concluded by saying that these are just some of the reasons why gold is poised to do well in 2020 .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

Karatbars International GmbH has proven to be a company that loves and believes in gold. In fact, the whole existence of the company is built on gold. It plans to restore the glory days of gold, to push it beyond what it is currently being used for.
This Company offers physical gold in small denominations to make it affordable to everybody and is in the process of establishing a complete ecosystem based to gold.
The CEO and founder of Karatbars, Harald Seiz, is also a long time admirer of gold and a seasoned gold investor. It is his love for gold that led him to establish a gold-oriented company.
Seiz believes that gold can serve more purposes than it currently does. One of his main goals is to make gold a more accessible asset that can be used as a method of payment and also as an investment using the unique abilities of blockchain technology.
Harald Seiz says that gold, as its history has shown, will never lose value or become useless. Even if all other commodities fail, gold will prevail.
The relationship between gold, government-issued fiat currencies, consumers, and the economy is one that will never change. Hence, gold will never lose its relevance, neither in this life nor in the next.
Why 2020 is the year for gold, according to the CEO of Karatbars
Now, Harald Seiz claims that, although it is always a good time to buy gold due to its inherent properties and characteristics, 2020 is actually an extraordinarily great year for gold. Investors should probably get their hands on as much gold as they can get.
As seen many times before, there are specific years in which buying gold proves to be a life-changing decision. And, according to Seiz, 2020 is such a year.
He stated that the biggest reason why investors should get hold of some gold is the outbreak of the Coronavirus. The fear and pandemonium caused by this outbreak are greater than just about anything we have seen in recent years, and it is arguably bigger than the threat posed by the Ebola virus.
According to Harald Seiz, the government is still clueless as to how to solve this pandemic, all the while the person sitting right next to you might be affected, without you or them even knowing about it. The world seems entirely unprepared.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Seiz thinks that it will take quite some time for the authorities to develop a cure, and, because of this, he expects that gold will make a massive leap in price.
Secondly, he pointed to the U.S. stock market that has been losing ground in what is looking to become its worst week in years.
He suspects that this is also a result of the Coronavirus as fears over the deadly disease have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 27,000 for the first time since October, and the full effect of this may become very visible soon.
Harald Seiz claims that, although gold has not risen as high as it was expected to, due to the global pandemic disease, the fact that we have watched the Dow go from 29,500 points to below 21,000 in less than a week is reason enough to know that the price of gold is going to rise if the stock market continues to deteriorate in the coming days, weeks, and months.
Furthermore, Seiz also said that the U.S. budget, which is an ongoing disaster, is a massive booster for gold, as the U.S. national debt is now at approximately $23.39 trillion and continues to climb exponentially.
He claims that any approach taken to service this debt will only prove to be beneficial for gold, as the government will need to either increase taxes and cut down on spending or debase the U.S. dollar, which will only result in a long-term tailwind for gold.
Harald Seiz also believes that the rise of Bernie Sanders as a candidate for the United States presidency is a piece of very welcoming news for gold. Sanders’s policy of taxing billionaires and taking on Wall Street isn’t exactly the remedy to the already nervous market.
Harald Seiz concluded by saying that these are just some of the reasons why gold is poised to do well in 2020.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--FOURTH Member of NJ Family That Has 7 Infected Has Died From The Virus… 2 On Life Support

HORRIFYING : One family in New Jersey had dinner together last week .
4 are now dead from Coronavirus , @ @ @ @ @ .
• Vincent Fusco became the fourth member of the Fusco family to die on @ @ @ @ @ confirmed by Roseann Paradiso Fodera , an attorney and relative • Vincent died just a @ @ @ @ @ , Carmine , and mother , Grace , died • Grace ’ s oldest daughter @ @ @ @ @ Friday ; she also tested positive for virus • Elizabeth Fusco described heartbreaking moments leading @ @ @ @ @ Deaths in the family are connected to John Brennan , 69 , a horse trainer @ @ @ @ @ Jersey resident to die after testing positive for the virus • Brennan had attended a @ @ @ @ @ to state authorities • Coronavirus symptoms : what are they and should you see a @ @

HORRIFYING: One family in New Jersey had dinner together last week. 4 are now dead from Coronavirus, 2 more on life support.
HORRIFYING: One family in New Jersey had dinner together last week. 4 are now dead from Coronavirus, 2 more on life support.t.co/oMwkuCMv6k pic.twitter.com/Sg8ZIdR8Nq — Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) March 20, 2020
Vincent Fusco became the fourth member of the Fusco family to die on Thursday
His death was confirmed by Roseann Paradiso Fodera, an attorney and relative
Vincent died just a day after his older brother, Carmine, and mother, Grace, died
Grace’s oldest daughter, Rita, died last Friday; she also tested positive for virus
Elizabeth Fusco described heartbreaking moments leading up to their deaths
Deaths in the family are connected to John Brennan, 69, a horse trainer who was the first New Jersey resident to die after testing positive for the virus
Brennan had attended a Fusco family gathering, according to state authorities
Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8133599/Coronavirus-kills-fourth-member-New-Jersey-family.html
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
BFD


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--With low test rates, COVID-19 spreads in shadows…  NYC Cases Suddenly Double

Paris ( AFP ) – The lack of available tests for COVID-19 means the world is effectively fighting the pandemic blind and may not know the true extent of infection for months if not years , experts said Thursday .
Because COVID-19 is so infectious — roughly 2.5 times that of the common cold — but not everyone presents symptoms , the figure of more than 200,000 confirmed cases tells only a fraction of the story .
On Tuesday the British government conceded it was likely there were already more than 55,000 COVID-19 infections in the country , far higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so far .
Jerry Shaman , a diseases expert at the University of Columbia , told AFP it was “ likely ” that developed nations are identifying between one in five and one in 10 true infections .
Shaman said there was a variety of reasons , including “ test availability , capacity , ignorance ( not taking the issue seriously ) , arrogance ( national pride ) .
” New York City Coronavirus Cases More Than Double City jails to let out some prisoners with health conditions or held on minor charges

Paris (AFP) – The lack of available tests for COVID-19 means the world is effectively fighting the pandemic blind and may not know the true extent of infection for months if not years, experts said Thursday.
Because COVID-19 is so infectious — roughly 2.5 times that of the common cold — but not everyone presents symptoms, the figure of more than 200,000 confirmed cases tells only a fraction of the story.
On Tuesday the British government conceded it was likely there were already more than 55,000 COVID-19 infections in the country, far higher than the more than 2,600 confirmed cases so far.
Jerry Shaman, a diseases expert at the University of Columbia, told AFP it was “likely” that developed nations are identifying between one in five and one in 10 true infections.
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Shaman said there was a variety of reasons, including “test availability, capacity, ignorance (not taking the issue seriously), arrogance (national pride).”
news.yahoo.com/low-test-rates-covid-19-spreads-shadows-173039467.html
New York City Coronavirus Cases More Than Double
City jails to let out some prisoners with health conditions or held on minor charges
www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-to-release-some-inmates-to-stop-coronavirus-spread-11584626666


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Tucker Carlson calls out Sen. Richard Burr for selling stock when he learned how devastating coronav

Tucker Carlson calls out Sen. Richard Burr for selling stock when he learned how devastating coronavirus would be “There is no greater moral crime than betraying your country in a time of crisis.”

Should be expelled from the Senate IMO , regardless of the legality of congressional insider trading .
FYI he sold @ @ @ @ @ stocks , though those were the most common he sold .
Yesterday when the stories @ @ @ @ @ went so far as to actually list them , so I pulled the financial disclosures @ @ @ @ @ company that makes welding , air and gas handling equipment , and medical devices ) @ @ @ @ @ property , casualty , insurance and reinsurance , investment management , and insurance claims management @ @ @ @ @ ’ t find a definitive answer on this one right away ) Constellation Brands Inc @ @ @ @ @ beer , wine and spirits ) Four senators offloaded stock after classified briefings about coronavirus… @ @ @ @ @ Time…

Tucker Carlson calls out Sen. Richard Burr for selling stock when he learned how devastating coronavirus would be: “There is no greater moral crime than betraying your country in a time of crisis.”
pic.twitter.com/K4Fc5kmMDK — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) March 20, 2020
Should be expelled from the Senate IMO, regardless of the legality of congressional insider trading. FYI he sold a lot more than hotel stocks, though those were the most common he sold. Yesterday when the stories broke, none of them went so far as to actually list them, so I pulled the financial disclosures myself:
02/26/2020 disclusure:
efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/paper/c5ce97f8-72c9-4067-b789-34b656af4fb4/
02/27/2020
efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/paper/156b69ba-6f48-4a32-b796-707093c476c6/
Aon PLC (“global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions”)
GCI Liberty Inc (communications provider)
Extended Stay America Inc (Hotel chain)
Abbvie Inc (biopharmaceutical company)
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (industrial coating company)
Bank of New York Mellon Corp (investments company)
Colfax Corp (company that makes welding, air and gas handling equipment, and medical devices)
Centurylink Inc (communications, network services, security, cloud solutions, voice and managed services)
Dorman Products Inc (automotive products and home hardware)
FedEx Corp (delivery services)
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (property, casualty, insurance and reinsurance, investment management, and insurance claims management)
MKH (? can’t find a definitive answer on this one right away)
3M Co (industry, worker safety, health care, and consumer goods)
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (real estate investment trust focused on hotel properties)
Everest Re Group Ltd (reinsurance company)
Extended Stay America Inc (Hotel chain, again)
Constellation Brands Inc (producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits)
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (hotel and resort chain)
CSX Corp (rail transportation and real estate)
.
.
Four senators offloaded stock after classified briefings about coronavirus…
Republican warned donors while downplaying threat publicly…
Others Sold Holdings Around Same Time…
h/t Shwoogin


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--COVID19 Shows Us Tech Firms Should Be Prevented from Banning Users For Legal Behavior

Breaking a persons ’ line of communication with friends and loved ones during a crisis involving quarantine and curfew should @ @ @

Breaking a persons’ line of communication with friends and loved ones during a crisis involving quarantine and curfew should be unlawful.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--USCOURTS.GOV: “California has activated its Continuity of Operations Plan”

Chief Judge Virginia A. Phillips announces the United States District Court for the Central District of California has activated its @ @ @ @ @ “ COOP ” ) , effective March 23 , 2020 through and including May 1 @ @ @ @ @ of the COOP Plan is necessary to ensure the continuous performance of essential functions and @ @ @ @ @ light of the continuing emergency pandemic caused by the spread of COVID-19 , also known @ @ @ @ @ The following are examples of actions that will be taken pursuant to the COOP Plan @

Activation of Continuity of Operations Plan
Chief Judge Virginia A. Phillips announces the United States
District Court for the Central District of California has
activated its Continuity of Operations Plan (“COOP”),
effective March 23, 2020 through and including May 1, 2020.
The activation of the COOP Plan is necessary to ensure the
continuous performance of essential functions and operations
of the Court in light of the continuing emergency pandemic
caused by the spread of COVID-19, also known as the
“Coronavirus.”
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The following are examples of actions that will be taken pursuant to the COOP Plan:
www.cacd.uscourts.gov/news/activation-continuity-operations-plan
h/t dr0id


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Covid-19 reveals huge flaws in our economic system

In responding to coronavirus the Bank of England has slashed interest rates and encouraged more lending to businesses .
These @ @ @ @ @ We can ’ t afford to make the same mistakes from 2008 and bail out @ @ @ @ @ ignoring those most in need .

In responding to coronavirus the Bank of England has slashed interest rates and encouraged more lending to businesses. These policies are not enough.
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We can’t afford to make the same mistakes from 2008 and bail out big banks and companies while ignoring those most in need.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Sacramento County, Calif. DELIBERATELY releasing INFECTED people – Mike the Health Ranger Report

Anti-Trump left-wing lunatics in California are deliberately trying to spread the coronavirus to collapse the US economy and hurt Trump @ @ @ @ @

Anti-Trump left-wing lunatics in California are deliberately trying to spread the coronavirus to collapse the US economy and hurt Trump’s election chances.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Hannity: How China, WHO could have prevented the COVID-19 pandemic

Hannity tells how China dropped the ball , at the least , and Tedros of WHO assisted them .

Hannity tells how China dropped the ball, at the least, and Tedros of WHO assisted them.
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AO


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--What can the UK do in the face of an economic depression?

We are facing quite a crisis and let us hope that we will end up looking at a period that might have been described by the famous Dickens quote from A Tale of Two Cities .
The reason I put it like that is because we have examples of the worst of times from food hoarders to examples of an extreme economic slowdown .
On a personal level I had only just finished talking to a friend who had lost 2 of his 3 jobs when I passed someone on the street talking about her friend losing his job .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ If we look at events in the retail and leisure sector whilst there are small flickers of good news there are large dollops of really bad news .
Accordingly this is a depression albeit like so many things these days it might be over relatively quickly for a depression in say a few months .
Of course the latter is unknown in terms of timing .
But people on low wages especially are going to need help as not only will they be unable to keep and feed themselves they will be forced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are ill .
In terms of public health that would be a disaster .
Also I fear this from the Bank of England Inflation Survey this morning may be too low .
Whilst there are factors which will reduce inflation such as the lower oil price will come into play there are factors the other way .
Because of shortages there will be rises in the price of food and vital purchases as illustrated below from the BBC .
If we now switch to financial markets we have seen some wild swings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under pressure in a financial crisis because of our large financial sector and as I looked at on Wednesday we are in a period of King Dollar strength .
Or at least we were as it has weakened overnight with the UK Pound £ bouncing to above US $ 1.18 this morning .
Now with markets as they are we could be in a lot of places by the time you read this but for now the extension of the Federal Reserve liquidity swaps to more countries has calmed things .
Perhaps we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Euro where as discussed in the comments recently we have been in a poor run .
But we have bounced over the past couple of days fro , 1.06 to 1.10 which I think teaches us that the UK Pound £ is a passenger really now .
We get hit by any fund liquidations and then rally at any calmer point .
It held an emergency meeting yesterday and then announced this .
Let me start with the interest-rate reduction which is simply laughable especially if we note what the business owner was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blog topics was the divergence between official and real world interest-rates and now a 0.1 % Bank Rate faces 40 % overdraft rates .
Next we have the issue that 0.5 % was supposed to be the emergency rate so 0.1 % speaks for itself .
Oh and for those wondering why they have chosen 0.1 % as the lower bound ( their description not mine ) it is because they still feel that the UK banks can not take negative interest-rates and is nothing to do with the rest of the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are by default doing us a favour although we have certainly paid for it !
Let us now move onto this and the Bank of England is proceeding at express pace .
But wait there is more .
So there will be a total of £10.2 billion of QE purchases today and although it has not explicitly said so presumably the same for Monday .
As you can imagine this has had quite an impact on the Gilt market as the ten-year yield which had risen to 1 % yesterday lunchtime is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallen to 0.08 % so we are back in the zone where a negative Gilt yield is possible .
Frankly it will depend on how aggressively the Bank of England buys its £200 billion .
The next bit was really vague .
Ah so it wasn ’ t going to be the triumph they told us only last week then ?
I hope this will do some good but the track record of such schemes is that they boost the banks ( cheap liquidity ) and house prices ( more and cheaper mortgage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some humour .
Last time around this was a complete joke as the Bank of England ended up buying foreign firms to fill its quota .
For example I have nothing against the Danish shipping firm Maersk but even they must have been surprised to see the Bank of England buying their bonds .
There are people and businesses out there that need help and in the former case simply to eat .
So there are real challenges here because if Bank of England action pushes prices higher it will make things worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chancellor who has difficult choices because on the other side of the coin many of the measures above will simply support the Zombie companies and banks which have held us back .
Also this is a dreadful time for economics 101 .
I opened by pointing out that unemployment will rise and maybe by a lot and so will prices and hence inflation .
That is not supposed to happen .
Then the UK announces more QE and the UK Pound £ rises although of course it is easier to state who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guess the Ivory Towers who so confidently made forecasts for the UK economy out to 2030 are now using their tippex , erasers and delete buttons .
Meanwhile in some sort of Star Trek alternative universe style event Chris Giles of the Financial Times is tweeting this .

by Shaun Richards
We are facing quite a crisis and let us hope that we will end up looking at a period that might have been described by the famous Dickens quote from A Tale of Two Cities.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.
The reason I put it like that is because we have examples of the worst of times from food hoarders to examples of an extreme economic slowdown. On a personal level I had only just finished talking to a friend who had lost 2 of his 3 jobs when I passed someone on the street talking about her friend losing his job. Then yesterday I received this tweet.
Funny, Barclays quoted me 18% interest on a £10k business loan this morning to keep my employees paid, unfortunately the state will now need to pay them. Bonkers! ( @_insole )
If we look at events in the retail and leisure sector whilst there are small flickers of good news there are large dollops of really bad news. Accordingly this is a depression albeit like so many things these days it might be over relatively quickly for a depression in say a few months. Of course the latter is unknown in terms of timing. But people on low wages especially are going to need help as not only will they be unable to keep and feed themselves they will be forced to work if they can even if they are ill. In terms of public health that would be a disaster.
Also I fear this from the Bank of England Inflation Survey this morning may be too low.
Question 2b: Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.9%, remaining the same as in November.
Whilst there are factors which will reduce inflation such as the lower oil price will come into play there are factors the other way. Because of shortages there will be rises in the price of food and vital purchases as illustrated below from the BBC.
A pharmacy which priced bottles of Calpol at £19.99 has been criticised for the “extortionate” move. A branch of West Midlands-based chain Jhoots had 200ml bottles of the liquid paracetamol advertised at about three times its usual price.
The UK Pound
If we now switch to financial markets we have seen some wild swings here. The UK Pound always comes under pressure in a financial crisis because of our large financial sector and as I looked at on Wednesday we are in a period of King Dollar strength. Or at least we were as it has weakened overnight with the UK Pound £ bouncing to above US $1.18 this morning. Now with markets as they are we could be in a lot of places by the time you read this but for now the extension of the Federal Reserve liquidity swaps to more countries has calmed things.
Perhaps we get more of a guide from the Euro where as discussed in the comments recently we have been in a poor run. But we have bounced over the past couple of days fro, 1.06 to 1.10 which I think teaches us that the UK Pound £ is a passenger really now. We get hit by any fund liquidations and then rally at any calmer point.
The Bank of England
It held an emergency meeting yesterday and then announced this.
At its special meeting on 19 March, the MPC judged that a further package of measures was warranted to meet its statutory objectives. It therefore voted unanimously to increase the Bank of England’s holdings of UK government bonds and sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds by £200 billion to a total of £645 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves; and to reduce Bank Rate by 15 basis points to 0.1%. The Committee also voted unanimously that the Bank of England should enlarge the Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for SMEs (TFSME).
Let me start with the interest-rate reduction which is simply laughable especially if we note what the business owner was offered above. One of my earliest blog topics was the divergence between official and real world interest-rates and now a 0.1% Bank Rate faces 40% overdraft rates. Next we have the issue that 0.5% was supposed to be the emergency rate so 0.1% speaks for itself. Oh and for those wondering why they have chosen 0.1% as the lower bound ( their description not mine) it is because they still feel that the UK banks cannot take negative interest-rates and is nothing to do with the rest of the economy. So in an irony the banks are by default doing us a favour although we have certainly paid for it!
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QE
Let us now move onto this and the Bank of England is proceeding at express pace.
Operations to make gilt purchases will commence on 20 March 2020 when the Bank intends to purchase £5.1bn of gilts spread evenly between short, medium and long maturity buckets. These operations will last for 30 minutes from 12.15 (short), 13.15 (medium) and 14.15 (long).
But wait there is more.
Prior to the 19 March announcement the Bank was in the process of reinvesting of the £17.5bn cash flows associated with the maturity on 7 March 2016 of a gilt owned by the APF. As noted above, and consistent with supporting current market conditions, the Bank will complete the remaining £10.2bn of gilt purchases by conducting sets of auctions (short, medium, long maturity sectors) on Friday 20 March and Monday 23 March (i.e. three auctions on each day).
So there will be a total of £10.2 billion of QE purchases today and although it has not explicitly said so presumably the same for Monday. As you can imagine this has had quite an impact on the Gilt market as the ten-year yield which had risen to 1% yesterday lunchtime is now 0.59%. The two-year yield has fallen to 0.08% so we are back in the zone where a negative Gilt yield is possible. Frankly it will depend on how aggressively the Bank of England buys its £200 billion.
The next bit was really vague.
The Committee also voted unanimously that the Bank of England should enlarge the Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for SMEs (TFSME)…… Following today’s special meeting of the MPC the Initial Borrowing Allowance for the TFSME will be increased from 5% to 10% of participants’ stock of real economy lending, based on the Base Stock of Applicable Loans.
Ah so it wasn’t going to be the triumph they told us only last week then? I hope this will do some good but the track record of such schemes is that they boost the banks ( cheap liquidity) and house prices ( more and cheaper mortgage finance).
We did also get some humour.
As part of the increase in APF asset purchases the MPC has approved an increase in the stock of purchases of sterling corporate bonds, financed by central bank reserves.
Last time around this was a complete joke as the Bank of England ended up buying foreign firms to fill its quota. For example I have nothing against the Danish shipping firm Maersk but even they must have been surprised to see the Bank of England buying their bonds.
Comment
There are people and businesses out there that need help and in the former case simply to eat. So there are real challenges here because if Bank of England action pushes prices higher it will make things worse. But the next steps are for the Chancellor who has difficult choices because on the other side of the coin many of the measures above will simply support the Zombie companies and banks which have held us back.
Also this is a dreadful time for economics 101. I opened by pointing out that unemployment will rise and maybe by a lot and so will prices and hence inflation. That is not supposed to happen. Then the UK announces more QE and the UK Pound £ rises although of course it is easier to state who is not doing QE now! I guess the Ivory Towers who so confidently made forecasts for the UK economy out to 2030 are now using their tippex, erasers and delete buttons. Meanwhile in some sort of Star Trek alternative universe style event Chris Giles of the Financial Times is tweeting this.
In a moment of irritation, am amazed at how little UK public science has learnt from economics – making mistakes no good economist has made in 50 years Economists have been beating themselves up for a decade Shoe now on other foot…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Bill Maher begged for the economy to crash and said we had all better hope for it, “it’s worth it to

Bill Maher begged for the economy to crash and said we had all better hope for it, “it’s worth it to get rid of trump”

Bill Maher said said several times we need the economy to crash and it ’ s that or trump “ @ @ @ @ @ pretty well , we have to do something ” , “ we need to root @ @ @ @ @ ’ s that or trump “ you should root for a recession necasue that would @ @ @ @ @ ” “ you have to root for it ” “ yes , i do it @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve gone through many recessions ” The rich don ’ t care if you @ @ @ @ @ can get their way… .

Bill Maher said said several times we need the economy to crash and it’s that or trump
youtu.be/kuIp5DYf8Lc
And another time
youtu.be/NoeXlQw0jck
“This is economy is going pretty well, we have to do something”,
“the bottom needs to fall out”
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“we need to root for a reccesion” it’s that or trump
“you should root for a recession necasue that would defiantly get rid of him” “you have to root for it”
“short term pain for long term progression”
“yes, i do it’ll be fine we’ve gone through many recessions”
The rich don’t care if you suffer as long as they can get their way….
h/t Typoqueen00


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Fed putting massive money into system today. Stocks rising but credit near the lows/ not believing i

Fed putting massive money into system today. Stocks rising but credit near the lows/ not believing it.

Credit can certainly get worse : ratings , quality & covenants are both crappier than they were a decade ago @ @ @ @ @ the Fed moved much faster to stop forced liquidation with their new facilities ( mostly @ @ @ @ @ comparing to the GFC .
Selective entry warranted pic.twitter.com/66It0mWoqR

Credit can certainly get worse: ratings, quality & covenants are both crappier than they were a decade ago. The upside is that the Fed moved much faster to stop forced liquidation with their new facilities (mostly PDCF) if you're comparing to the GFC. Selective entry warranted pic.twitter.com/66It0mWoqR
— THE LONG VIEW ⚫ (@HayekAndKeynes) March 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Reality Check: 5th largest GDP in the WORLD – just went into lockdown!

5th largest GDP in the WORLD – just went into lockdown !
Now , ask yourself : Is this really @ @ @ @ @ We need a stimulus plan just to replace California !
Straight talk from Trump is @ @ @ @ @ can be trusted # COVID19 # TrumpIsTheBlackSwan t.co/u71JOsV7ch

Reality Check:
5th largest GDP in the WORLD – just went into lockdown!
Now, ask yourself: Is this really priced in? $SPX
We need a stimulus plan just to replace California!
Straight talk from Trump is essential + nothing he says can be trusted#COVID19 #TrumpIsTheBlackSwan t.co/u71JOsV7ch
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Goldman Sachs warns data point to a historic and frankly apocalyptic surge in unemployment insurance

Yes you read that right .
Upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen The coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ in layoffs on a scale that the U.S. has never seen before .
Economists expect @ @ @ @ @ reporting month when the damage starts to show up .
Forecasts for that month range @ @ @ @ @ .
The worst month during the financial crisis saw nonfarm payrolls decrease by 800,000 .
@ @ @ @ @ expected to be so bad that the White House has reportedly asked state officials to @ @ @ @ @

Yes you read that right.
Goldman Sachs warns data point to a historic and frankly apocalyptic surge in unemployment insurance claims, from current 281,000 to 2,250,000 in next week’s report. Yes you read that right. pic.twitter.com/KX7oDfu8fe — Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 20, 2020
😬 "Americans will need to stay home for at least several weeks" t.co/DhcK4sHust — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) March 20, 2020
Upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen
The coronavirus crisis is likely to result in layoffs on a scale that the U.S. has never seen before.
Economists expect April to be the first reporting month when the damage starts to show up.
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Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.
The worst month during the financial crisis saw nonfarm payrolls decrease by 800,000.
Weekly jobless claims numbers are expected to be so bad that the White House has reportedly asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--The pain in the economy has just begun… with or without Central Banks…

U.S .
Recession Chances Now 80 % Despite Fed Emergency Moves : Reuters Poll The coronavirus crisis has almost certainly @ @ @ @ @ on record and pushed the economy into the start of a short slump , according @ @ @ @ @ who gave a median 80 % chance of recession this year .
14 Million Americans @ @ @ @ @ Far Due To COVID-19 “ High school educated workers are twice as likely to have @ @ @ @ @ graduates .
”

Remember the same yield curve that predicted dot com crash, Lehman Collapse, predicted Covid19 Also the same curve keeps saying. The pain in the economy has just begun… with or without Central Banks… Lift the curve up to ~4 and we can start talking about new recovery cycle. pic.twitter.com/RhzGfInhM3 — GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) March 20, 2020
This is NOT supposed to happen: US Treasuries and S&P500 both sell off. When it does happen it is a sign of general liquidation. And when very unexpected things happen that unleashes other bad dynamics e.g. hedge fund strategies backfire. @SoberLook essential data source. pic.twitter.com/x1J6UUyHj3 — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) March 20, 2020
Goldman U.S. GDP forecasts for second quarter:
On Monday – Minus 5%
Today – Minus 24% It's been a long week pic.twitter.com/M58BvRR8Jn — Lorcan Roche Kelly (@LorcanRK) March 20, 2020
Bank of America now forecasting a global recession with GDP growth dropping to 0% in 2020: "Our first piece on the virus shock was titled 'Bad or worse'; now we amend that to 'Really bad or much worse.'" — Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) March 20, 2020
Central banks are going all out, without any limits. Everything is on the table & it just might work. However, you know that means? The recovery will be even more anemic (again) & the next recession/crash will be even worse (again). The system is becoming more & more fragile. — Tiho Brkan (@TihoBrkan) March 20, 2020
JP Morgan predicts an ugly global recession: "global economy is poised to contract this quarter & next with the US projected to decline at a -14% and the Euro area at a -22% ar next quarter." But my view is that it's highly unlikely that growth grows >0 by Q3. At the earliest Q4! — Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) March 20, 2020
Municipal bonds, investment-grade bonds, junk grade bonds, and Emerging Market hard currency bonds all look horrible. Where else do you see debt stresses in the system?$MUNI $LQD $HYG $EMB pic.twitter.com/uALPJwRn1H — Tiho Brkan (@TihoBrkan) March 20, 2020
Market will price it in – without him. Jobless Claims Data from March 14 … see any resemblances? 2008 And I will repeat: Financial Crisis not Correction t.co/js093tZGSP pic.twitter.com/elxFZ9w9vD — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 20, 2020
"Investment Grade" Corporate Bond ETF off 19% in 12 days… ETF's failing the stress test.$LQD pic.twitter.com/yKX68HnHje — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) March 18, 2020
The coronavirus crisis has almost certainly ended the longest U.S. expansion on record and pushed the economy into the start of a short slump, according to analysts polled by Reuters who gave a median 80% chance of recession this year.
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“High school educated workers are twice as likely to have lost their jobs as college graduates.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Gottlieb: Coronavirus Patients Will Overwhelm US Health System

CNBC ’ s “ Squawk Box ” team is joined by former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb to discuss how @ @ @ @ @ more coronavirus patients and what is needed from the health care system .

CNBC’s “Squawk Box” team is joined by former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb to discuss how the U.S. is preparing for more coronavirus patients and what is needed from the health care system.
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