investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--BLOOD IN THE STREETS

BLOOD IN THE STREETS

Are you looking for securities to buy to take advantage of the carnage in the financial markets from the coronavirus ?
Baron Rothschild , the 18th-century British banker advised that “ The time to buy is when there ’ s blood in the streets , even if it is your own.
” He made a fortune buying government bonds in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon .
But it ’ s not sovereign debt of the world ’ s superpowers that is on sale today ; it ’ s not the S & P 500 or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had their biggest year-over-year rally ever , and at record low yields , they are no bargain .
As for US stocks , it ’ s only the first month after what we believe was a historic market top .
The problem is that the pandemic just so happened to strike at the time of the most over-valued US stock market ever based on a composite of eight valuation indicators tracked by Crescat , even higher than 1929 and 2000 .
It also hit after a record long bull market and economic expansion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a major downturn based on an onslaught of deteriorating macro and fundamental data even before the global health emergency .
As we show in the chart above , we believe there is much more downside still ahead for US stocks as a major global recession from nosebleed debt-to-GDP levels has only just begun .
Corporate earnings are now poised to plunge and unemployment to surge .
These things are perfectly normal .
There is a business cycle after all .
It must play out as always to purge the economy and markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the next growth phase .
From the February top for large cap stocks , it would take a 56 % selloff just to get to long term mean valuations , a 74 % decline to get to one standard deviation below that .
In the worst bear markets , valuations get to two standard deviations below the mean .
Such realities happened at the depth of the Great Depression , the 1973-4 bear market , and the 1982 double-dip recession .
1932 was an 89 % drop from the peak .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is comparable to 1929 in speed and magnitude .
There will certainly be bounces , but even after an almost 30 % fall in the S & P 500 through yesterday ’ s close , we are not even close to the “ blood in the street ” valuations that should mark the bottom for stocks in the current global recession that has only just begun to unfold .
But value investors do not have to despair today .
There is one area of the stock market that already offers historic low valuations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Small cap gold and silver mining companies just retested the lows of a 9-year bear market .
Last Friday , they were down 84 % from their last bull market peak in December 2010 !
This was a double-bottom retest at a likely higher low compared to the January 2016 low when they were down 87 % .
Now that is what we call mass murder !
In the chart below , we show that precious metals juniors reached record low valuations last Friday relative to gold which is still up 18 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at that beautiful divergence and base .
The baby was thrown out with the bathwater in a mass margin call .
Last time the ratio was in this vicinity , junior gold and silver miners rallied 200 % in 8 months .
Crescat owns a portfolio of premier , hand-picked juniors as part of our precious metals SMA and in both hedge funds where clients can gain exposure today .
We significantly increased our exposure in our hedge funds amidst the massacre last week .
The entire precious metals group was a casualty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin call selling for stocks and corporate credit at large in the precipitous market decline .
But it was also a victim of a meltdown in dubious levered gold and silver ETF products .
These produces such as JNUG and NUGT already had a horrific tracking error .
Nobody should have ever been investing in them in the first place .
Gold stocks are volatile enough on an unlevered basis .
But when it comes to the precious metals mining stocks , we are convinced this was a margin call on Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levered ETF products .
The chief culprit in the ETF space last week was the $ 3 billion leveraged assets , Direxion Daily Jr. Gold Bull 3x ETF .
It absolutely imploded , dropping 95 % through last Friday from its recent high on February 21 .
The fiasco in JNUG was insult to injury for long-time precious metals investors , especially those invested in silver and in junior miners .
It was also an incredible buying opportunity that Crescat took advantage of , especially in its hedge funds , where the profits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us to step up .
Last week ’ s action may have marked a major bottom for precious metals mining stocks and ideally a bottom for battered silver this week .
As of Friday , miners were on track for their worst quarter ever as we show below .
The gold and silver stock selloff has exposed enormous free cash flow yields today among precious metals mining producers of 10 , 20 , 30 , 40 , even 50 % .
This is completely opposite the stock market at large .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world ’ s most attractive gold and silver deposits that can be bought at historic low valuations to proven reserves and resources in the ground .
These companies are the beneficiaries of underinvestment in exploration and development by the senior producers over the entire precious metals bear market .
That rebound may have started yesterday in the mining stocks especially the juniors .
It is a historic setup right now for the entire precious metals complex .
Central banks are coming in , guns blazing .
Meanwhile , the fundamentals have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices to rise making the discounted present value of these companies even better .
Global central bank money printing is poised to explode which is important because the world fiat monetary base is the biggest single macro driver of gold prices .
Gold itself is already undervalued relative to global central bank assets which targets gold at $ 2400 an ounce today .
At the same time , the price of gold is the biggest macro driver of the price of silver , which is gold on steroids .
Silver today is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to gold and represents an incredible bargain .
We think silver is poised to skyrocket along with mining stocks in what should be one of the biggest V-shaped recoveries in the entire financial markets in the near term .
As we have shown in our prior letters , when the yield curve first inverts by 70 % or more , there is a high probability of a recession and bear market .
At that point , historically it has paid to buy gold and sell stocks for the next 2 years .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 .
At Crescat , we continue to express both sides of this trade in our hedge funds and our firm at large .
The gold-to-S & P 500 ratio is up 28 % since last August .
The first part of the move was mostly driven by the rise in gold .
Since February 19 , its been driven by the decline in stocks .
Now we ’ re at the place where historically both legs start to work in tandem , and yesterday that was evident with one of our best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Fed has not exhausted all its bullets .
It has many forms of monetary stimulus .
It can print more money and take interest rates into negative territory if need be .
As the downturn in the business cycle becomes more pronounced , these policies will become increasingly called upon .
That ’ s precisely what we are seeing today .
Rate cuts everywhere , QE announcements , even forms of helicopter money are being implemented .
It won ’ t save the economic cycle from its normal course , instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for owning precious metals .
Central bank money printing and inflationary fiscal policy will almost certainly intensify .
This is incredibly bullish for precious metals .
We are in a global synchronized debasement environment .
Gold has already been appreciating in all major fiat currencies in the world over the last year .
While yields continue to make historic lows worldwide , in real terms they have reached even more extreme levels .
For instance , the US 10-year yield is now almost 2 percentage points below inflation .
This just further strengthens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even investment grade ( IG ) bonds are now blowing up .
Implied volatility for IG bonds is surging !
It ’ s now at its highest level since the Great Recession .
Last week , the LQD ( ETF ) plunged 8 % in 3 days , which is equivalent to a 10 standard deviation move .
Declines as such only happened one other time in history , September 2008 .
We believe the corporate debt market crisis has just begun .
Stocks are acting like it ’ s the Great Depression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already begun .
The probability for a US recession , as measure by this Bloomberg indicator , just surged above 50 % .
It ’ s currently at its highest level since the global financial crisis .
This indicator leads changes in unemployment by 5 months with a 0.81 correlation .
It suggests that the labor market has peaked .
We have also recently noted that the number of full-time employed people is now contracting .
This was already rolling over in January .
With the recent impacts from the virus outbreak , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imminently .
As of date , Crescat ’ s “ Macro Trade of the Century ” has been working phenomenally well .
We believe our in-depth analysis looking at the history of economic cycles and the development of macro models is paying off tremendously .
This is just the beginning of this three-legged trade .
The global economy has just entered a recession and the fundamental damage of the virus outbreak on an already overleveraged economy will be greater than anything we have ever seen .
We have massive underfunded pensions with governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inequality is at an extreme across the globe .
It is not the ideal mix for asset prices that remain grossly overvalued worldwide .
When investors ask us if our macro themes to position for the downturn have already played out , the answer is absolutely not .
There is so much more to go .
We explain it in three ways : 1 ) The bursting of China ’ s credit bubble , the largest we ’ ve seen in history , has yet to materialize in its most brutal manner .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese current account should only continue to shrink and exacerbate its dollar shortage problem .
We expect that a large devaluation in its currency versus USD is coming soon .
We haven ’ t seen anything yet .
We remain positioned for this in an asymmetric way through put options in our global macro fund in the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar .
2 ) Except for last year , gold , silver , and the precious metals ’ miners haven ’ t yet performed in the way we think they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major way YTD .
Meanwhile , central banks are clearly losing control of financial markets and further monetary stimulus appears unavoidable .
The entire precious metals ’ industry should benefit from this macro backdrop .
The near- and medium-term upside opportunity in the entire precious metals complex has never looked more attractive than it does today .
3 ) Equity markets remain about 30 % above their median valuations throughout history .
The coming downturn is one that will likely not stop at the median .
As we showed above , we believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stocks at large before we reach the trough of the current global recession .
In our hedge funds , we added significantly to our precious metals positions with gains from our short sales late last week .
We have also recently been harvesting profits in some of the most beaten down of our shorts .
We remain net short global equities but much less so than a month ago and with less gross exposure overall .
As a value-oriented global macro asset management firm , we believe there is so much more to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only just begun to turn down .
We are not perma-bears , but we are determined to capitalize on this downturn .
We have been telling our hedge fund clients for the past several quarters that we have been tactically positioned for a market and economic downturn ripe to unfold .
Indeed , it has finally begun .
Below , we show how our hedge funds have been performing since the top in the S & P 500 on February 19 : If you are interested in learning more about Crescat or investing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact Linda Carleu Smith at lsmith @ crescat.net or ( 303 ) 228-7371 .

by CRESCAT CAPITAL
Dear Investors:
Are you looking for securities to buy to take advantage of the carnage in the financial markets from the coronavirus? Baron Rothschild, the 18th-century British banker advised that “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” He made a fortune buying government bonds in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon. But it’s not sovereign debt of the world’s superpowers that is on sale today; it’s not the S&P 500 or Dow either.
US government bonds already had their biggest year-over-year rally ever, and at record low yields, they are no bargain. As for US stocks, it’s only the first month after what we believe was a historic market top. The problem is that the pandemic just so happened to strike at the time of the most over-valued US stock market ever based on a composite of eight valuation indicators tracked by Crescat, even higher than 1929 and 2000. It also hit after a record long bull market and economic expansion. The stock market was already ripe for a major downturn based on an onslaught of deteriorating macro and fundamental data even before the global health emergency.
As we show in the chart above, we believe there is much more downside still ahead for US stocks as a major global recession from nosebleed debt-to-GDP levels has only just begun. Corporate earnings are now poised to plunge and unemployment to surge. These things are perfectly normal. There is a business cycle after all. It must play out as always to purge the economy and markets of their sins and prepare the way for the next growth phase. From the February top for large cap stocks, it would take a 56% selloff just to get to long term mean valuations, a 74% decline to get to one standard deviation below that. In the worst bear markets, valuations get to two standard deviations below the mean. Such realities happened at the depth of the Great Depression, the 1973-4 bear market, and the 1982 double-dip recession. 1932 was an 89% drop from the peak. The initial decline in this market so far is comparable to 1929 in speed and magnitude. There will certainly be bounces, but even after an almost 30% fall in the S&P 500 through yesterday’s close, we are not even close to the “blood in the street” valuations that should mark the bottom for stocks in the current global recession that has only just begun to unfold.
But value investors do not have to despair today. There is one area of the stock market that already offers historic low valuations and an incredible buying opportunity right now. Small cap gold and silver mining companies just retested the lows of a 9-year bear market. Last Friday, they were down 84% from their last bull market peak in December 2010! This was a double-bottom retest at a likely higher low compared to the January 2016 low when they were down 87%. Now that is what we call mass murder! In the chart below, we show that precious metals juniors reached record low valuations last Friday relative to gold which is still up 18% year-over-year. Mad value. Look at that beautiful divergence and base. The baby was thrown out with the bathwater in a mass margin call. Last time the ratio was in this vicinity, junior gold and silver miners rallied 200% in 8 months. Crescat owns a portfolio of premier, hand-picked juniors as part of our precious metals SMA and in both hedge funds where clients can gain exposure today. We significantly increased our exposure in our hedge funds amidst the massacre last week.
The entire precious metals group was a casualty of a liquidity crisis, the forced margin call selling for stocks and corporate credit at large in the precipitous market decline. But it was also a victim of a meltdown in dubious levered gold and silver ETF products. These produces such as JNUG and NUGT already had a horrific tracking error. Nobody should have ever been investing in them in the first place. Gold stocks are volatile enough on an unlevered basis. But when it comes to the precious metals mining stocks, we are convinced this was a margin call on Wall Street at large and in particular for these levered ETF products.
The chief culprit in the ETF space last week was the $3 billion leveraged assets, Direxion Daily Jr. Gold Bull 3x ETF. It absolutely imploded, dropping 95% through last Friday from its recent high on February 21. The fiasco in JNUG was insult to injury for long-time precious metals investors, especially those invested in silver and in junior miners. It was also an incredible buying opportunity that Crescat took advantage of, especially in its hedge funds, where the profits from our short positions at large allowed us to step up. Last week’s action may have marked a major bottom for precious metals mining stocks and ideally a bottom for battered silver this week. As of Friday, miners were on track for their worst quarter ever as we show below.
The gold and silver stock selloff has exposed enormous free cash flow yields today among precious metals mining producers of 10, 20, 30, 40, even 50%. This is completely opposite the stock market at large. Meanwhile, the pure-play junior mining explorers have some of the world’s most attractive gold and silver deposits that can be bought at historic low valuations to proven reserves and resources in the ground. These companies are the beneficiaries of underinvestment in exploration and development by the senior producers over the entire precious metals bear market. That rebound may have started yesterday in the mining stocks especially the juniors. It is a historic setup right now for the entire precious metals complex. Central banks are coming in, guns blazing.
Meanwhile, the fundamentals have never been better for gold and silver prices to rise making the discounted present value of these companies even better. Global central bank money printing is poised to explode which is important because the world fiat monetary base is the biggest single macro driver of gold prices. Gold itself is already undervalued relative to global central bank assets which targets gold at $2400 an ounce today.
At the same time, the price of gold is the biggest macro driver of the price of silver, which is gold on steroids. Silver today is the absolute cheapest it has ever been relative to gold and represents an incredible bargain. We think silver is poised to skyrocket along with mining stocks in what should be one of the biggest V-shaped recoveries in the entire financial markets in the near term.
As we have shown in our prior letters, when the yield curve first inverts by 70% or more, there is a high probability of a recession and bear market. At that point, historically it has paid to buy gold and sell stocks for the next 2 years. We went above 70% inversions in August 2019. At Crescat, we continue to express both sides of this trade in our hedge funds and our firm at large. The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio is up 28% since last August. The first part of the move was mostly driven by the rise in gold. Since February 19, its been driven by the decline in stocks. Now we’re at the place where historically both legs start to work in tandem, and yesterday that was evident with one of our best days ever in both Crescat hedge funds.
The Fed has not exhausted all its bullets. It has many forms of monetary stimulus. It can print more money and take interest rates into negative territory if need be. As the downturn in the business cycle becomes more pronounced, these policies will become increasingly called upon. That’s precisely what we are seeing today. Rate cuts everywhere, QE announcements, even forms of helicopter money are being implemented. It won’t save the economic cycle from its normal course, instead, it should only invigorate the reasons for owning precious metals. Central bank money printing and inflationary fiscal policy will almost certainly intensify. This is incredibly bullish for precious metals. We are in a global synchronized debasement environment. Gold has already been appreciating in all major fiat currencies in the world over the last year.
While yields continue to make historic lows worldwide, in real terms they have reached even more extreme levels. For instance, the US 10-year yield is now almost 2 percentage points below inflation. This just further strengthens our precious metals’ long thesis.
Even investment grade (IG) bonds are now blowing up. Implied volatility for IG bonds is surging! It’s now at its highest level since the Great Recession. Last week, the LQD (ETF) plunged 8% in 3 days, which is equivalent to a 10 standard deviation move. Declines as such only happened one other time in history, September 2008. We believe the corporate debt market crisis has just begun.
Stocks are acting like it’s the Great Depression again and we believe a recession has already begun. The probability for a US recession, as measure by this Bloomberg indicator, just surged above 50%. It’s currently at its highest level since the global financial crisis. This indicator leads changes in unemployment by 5 months with a 0.81 correlation. It suggests that the labor market has peaked.
We have also recently noted that the number of full-time employed people is now contracting. This was already rolling over in January. With the recent impacts from the virus outbreak, we believe this number will be plunging imminently.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Macro Trade of the Century
As of date, Crescat’s “Macro Trade of the Century” has been working phenomenally well. We believe our in-depth analysis looking at the history of economic cycles and the development of macro models is paying off tremendously. This is just the beginning of this three-legged trade. The global economy has just entered a recession and the fundamental damage of the virus outbreak on an already overleveraged economy will be greater than anything we have ever seen. We have massive underfunded pensions with governments and corporations record indebted, while wealth inequality is at an extreme across the globe. It is not the ideal mix for asset prices that remain grossly overvalued worldwide.
When investors ask us if our macro themes to position for the downturn have already played out, the answer is absolutely not. There is so much more to go. We explain it in three ways:
1) The bursting of China’s credit bubble, the largest we’ve seen in history, has yet to materialize in its most brutal manner. As macro imbalances unfold worldwide, the Chinese current account should only continue to shrink and exacerbate its dollar shortage problem. We expect that a large devaluation in its currency versus USD is coming soon. We haven’t seen anything yet. We remain positioned for this in an asymmetric way through put options in our global macro fund in the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar.
2) Except for last year, gold, silver, and the precious metals’ miners haven’t yet performed in the way we think they will. Instead they have recoiled in a major way YTD. Meanwhile, central banks are clearly losing control of financial markets and further monetary stimulus appears unavoidable. The entire precious metals’ industry should benefit from this macro backdrop. The near- and medium-term upside opportunity in the entire precious metals complex has never looked more attractive than it does today.
3) Equity markets remain about 30% above their median valuations throughout history. The coming downturn is one that will likely not stop at the median. As we showed above, we believe there is much more downside ahead for stocks at large before we reach the trough of the current global recession.
In our hedge funds, we added significantly to our precious metals positions with gains from our short sales late last week. We have also recently been harvesting profits in some of the most beaten down of our shorts. We remain net short global equities but much less so than a month ago and with less gross exposure overall. As a value-oriented global macro asset management firm, we believe there is so much more to play out as the economic cycle has only just begun to turn down. We are not perma-bears, but we are determined to capitalize on this downturn.
Crescat Performance Update
We have been telling our hedge fund clients for the past several quarters that we have been tactically positioned for a market and economic downturn ripe to unfold. Indeed, it has finally begun. Below, we show how our hedge funds have been performing since the top in the S&P 500 on February 19:
If you are interested in learning more about Crescat or investing with us, we encourage you to contact Linda Carleu Smith at lsmith@crescat.net or (303) 228-7371.
Download PDF Version
Sincerely,
Kevin C. Smith, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
Tavi Costa
Portfolio Manager


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Mnuchin – 20% unemployment possible

Mnuchin – 20% unemployment possible

Which would bring us into a depression .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raised the possibility with Republican senators that U.S. @ @ @ @ @ % without government intervention because of the impact of the coronavirus , according to people @ @ @ @ @ Mnuchin discussed the scenario with the lawmakers on Tuesday as he proposed an economic stimulus @ @ @ @ @ more .
He told the senators that he believes the economic fallout from the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ 2008 financial crisis .

Which would bring us into a depression.
Mnuchin warns virus could yield 20% jobless rate without action
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raised the possibility with Republican senators that U.S. unemployment could rise to 20% without government intervention because of the impact of the coronavirus, according to people familiar with the matter.
Mnuchin discussed the scenario with the lawmakers on Tuesday as he proposed an economic stimulus of $1 trillion or more.
He told the senators that he believes the economic fallout from the coronavirus is potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--And so it BEGINS: Californians Calling Cops On Neighbors If They Hear Them Coughing; Illinois Activa

And so it BEGINS: Californians Calling Cops On Neighbors If They Hear Them Coughing; Illinois Activates The National Guard; US Navy Activating It’s Hospital Ships

Californians Calling Cops On Neighbors If They Hear Them Coughing Some Californians are calling 911 if they hear their neighbors loudly coughing or sneezing , with paramedics being dispatched to homes in some cases .
With millions of people across the state under a quarantine that mandates isolation except for essential travel , it appears as though some Californians are passing the time by grassing up their own neighbors to medical authorities .
Instead of telling them to reserve 911 calls for emergencies only , police are actually responding by sending out paramedics to test the cougher and even remove @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many cases , the calls are forwarded to the fire department where paramedics are also dispatched to directly provide any needed medical attention before transporting the person to an area hospital , ” according to the report .
“ Presumably , the ride to the hospital is still voluntary for now , even in hyperstatist California .
Or maybe they are setting up quarantine camps , ” comments Dave Blount .
The Pentagon is starting the process of activating Navy hospital ships USNS Mercy ( T-AH-19 ) and USNS Comfort ( T-AH-20 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s domestic response to the spreading COVID-19 virus , USNI News has learned .
“ We ’ ve already given orders to the Navy… to lean forward in terms of getting them ready to deploy , ” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters on Tuesday .
The ships will now begin the several days-long process of bringing aboard medical staff and equipment ahead of deploying along the East and West coasts , a defense official confirmed to USNI News on Tuesday afternoon .
Two sources told USNI News that the idea was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coastal hospital systems , with the ships taking on non-COVID-19 cases and allowing the hospitals to focus on the most critical patients suffering from the virus .
The Pentagon also has extensive equipment for erecting field hospitals in addition to the hospital ships , but those facilities are optimized for trauma cases , with several beds close together , and not for infectious patients .
“ So one of the ways you could use field hospitals , hospital ships or things in between is to take the pressure off of civilian hospitals when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open up civilian hospital rooms for infectious diseases , ” Esper said .
On Monday , Joint Staff surgeon Air Force Brig .
Gen. Paul Friedrichs gave more details on how the ships could support civilian hospitals .
“ If , for example , a community has a large outbreak and there ’ s a need for emergency room support or trauma support , a hospital ship is perfectly designed to do that , ” Friedrichs told Politico on Monday .
“ It ’ s hard to get the hospital ship to St. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is an option to use .
”

Californians Calling Cops On Neighbors If They Hear Them Coughing
Some Californians are calling 911 if they hear their neighbors loudly coughing or sneezing, with paramedics being dispatched to homes in some cases.
Yes, really.
“Coachella Valley police departments say they’ve started fielding 911 reports from concerned callers convinced a neighbor’s overly loud sneeze or hacking cough is proof the person has the virus,” reports the Desert Sun.
With millions of people across the state under a quarantine that mandates isolation except for essential travel, it appears as though some Californians are passing the time by grassing up their own neighbors to medical authorities.
Instead of telling them to reserve 911 calls for emergencies only, police are actually responding by sending out paramedics to test the cougher and even remove them from their home.
“In many cases, the calls are forwarded to the fire department where paramedics are also dispatched to directly provide any needed medical attention before transporting the person to an area hospital,” according to the report. “Presumably, the ride to the hospital is still voluntary for now, even in hyperstatist California. Or maybe they are setting up quarantine camps,” comments Dave Blount.
ILLINOIS ACTIVATES the NATIONAL GUARD
US NAVY Activating It’s HOSPITAL SHIPS
The Pentagon is starting the process of activating Navy hospital ships USNS Mercy (T-AH-19) and USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) as part of the Defense Department’s domestic response to the spreading COVID-19 virus, USNI News has learned.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“We’ve already given orders to the Navy… to lean forward in terms of getting them ready to deploy,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters on Tuesday.
The ships will now begin the several days-long process of bringing aboard medical staff and equipment ahead of deploying along the East and West coasts, a defense official confirmed to USNI News on Tuesday afternoon.
Two sources told USNI News that the idea was for the ships to provide relief for coastal hospital systems, with the ships taking on non-COVID-19 cases and allowing the hospitals to focus on the most critical patients suffering from the virus. The Pentagon also has extensive equipment for erecting field hospitals in addition to the hospital ships, but those facilities are optimized for trauma cases, with several beds close together, and not for infectious patients.
“So one of the ways you could use field hospitals, hospital ships or things in between is to take the pressure off of civilian hospitals when it comes to trauma cases, to open up civilian hospital rooms for infectious diseases,” Esper said.
On Monday, Joint Staff surgeon Air Force Brig. Gen. Paul Friedrichs gave more details on how the ships could support civilian hospitals.
“If, for example, a community has a large outbreak and there’s a need for emergency room support or trauma support, a hospital ship is perfectly designed to do that,” Friedrichs told Politico on Monday.
“It’s hard to get the hospital ship to St. Louis, but along the coasts, it is an option to use.”
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--NEW YORK may ORDER “SHELTER IN PLACE”! MAYOR SAYS PREPARE NOW

BREAKING : New York Mayor de Blasio says a shelter-in-place order for New York City is definitely a possibility , @ @ @ @ @ .
He says decision likely in the next 48 hours New York City Mayor Bill @ @ @ @ @ on Tuesday to be prepared for a potential shelter-in-place order .
“ It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ de Blasio said .
“ A decision will be made within the next 48 hours.
@ @ @ @ @ such an order would be “ particularly difficult in a city like New York , @ @ @ @ @ would lose their jobs under such a scenario .
As of midday Tuesday , New @ @ @ @ @ cases and seven deaths .
De Blasio also announced that new testing capabilities would allow @ @ @ @ @ per day in the city , and testing capabilities would be ramped up as needed @ @ @ @ @ going to have in the multiples of thousands of cases by next week , ” @ @ @ @

BREAKING: New York Mayor de Blasio says a shelter-in-place order for New York City is definitely a possibility, New Yorkers should prepare now. He says decision likely in the next 48 hours
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned New Yorkers on Tuesday to be prepared for a potential shelter-in-place order.
“It’s definitely a possibility,” de Blasio said. “A decision will be made within the next 48 hours.” He did say that such an order would be “particularly difficult in a city like New York,” and many New Yorkers would lose their jobs under such a scenario.
As of midday Tuesday, New York City had 814 confirmed cases and seven deaths. De Blasio also announced that new testing capabilities would allow 5,000 patients to be tested per day in the city, and testing capabilities would be ramped up as needed. “We are certainly going to have in the multiples of thousands of cases by next week,” the mayor warned.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--SAN FRANCISCO on 24 HOUR LOCKDOWN for 3 WEEKS

It ’ s the strictest new policy enacted in the nation , and matches the current rules in Italy … @ @ @ @ @ hardest-hit country in the world .

San Francisco is going the way of Italy with its coronavirus safety measures — the Mayor’s instituting around-the-clock curfew, banning almost everyone from leaving their homes.
Mayor London Breed announced what she calls a “defining moment” in U.S. response to the pandemic. Beginning at 12 AM, all residents within the city can only leave home for doctor’s appointments or runs to the grocery store.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Joe Biden Promises To Put A Lot Of People Out Of Work

• Joe Biden ’ s Plan to Shut Down the Firearms Industry .
As Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders continue to trade blows over who is more equipped to supposedly deliver a knockout punch to the firearms industry , the former vice president has zeroed in on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act ( PLCAA ) — the law preventing frivolous lawsuits that seek to blame members of the firearms industry for the criminal misuse of legal , lawfully sold , non-defective firearms .
● Biden says ‘ no new fracking ’ for oil and gas .
Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new fracking ” during Sunday night ’ s Democratic debate after intense questioning from rival Bernie Sanders on whether Biden is serious about combating climate change .
“ I ’ m talking about stopping fracking as soon as we possibly can ” and “ telling the fossil fuel industry they ’ re going to stop destroying the planet , ” the Vermont senator said , questioning Biden ’ s climate platform .
“ Your heart is in the right place , ” he told Biden , but it “ doesn ’ t take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden : ‘ We Can Take Millions of Vehicles Off the Road if… ’ Former Vice President Joe Biden told a CNN town hall on climate change Wednesday night that he endorses high-speed rail as a way to “ take millions of vehicles off the road.
” For example , you talked earlier about transportation .
I ’ ve been pushing really hard for mass transit and for rail .
We can take millions of vehicles off the road if we had high-speed rail .
I ’ ve been a champion of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know the corridors where we could do that .
It would literally take millions of vehicles off the road .
But you have to have a rail system that makes people say , if I get on that rail , I will get there as fast as I would have gotten had I driven , and I can afford to do it relative to the cost of my driving .
There ’ s a direct correlation .
This is something I spent the bulk of my career on , trying to save Amtrak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transportation .
But my point is that there are things that we can do now , — now — that can begin to change the arc in a significant way .
And as we , in fact , invest in the science and the technology and the changes that are available and will come to fruition , in fact , we can make it significantly better .
After the Democratic presidential candidates ’ apocalyptic-themed “ climate change ” town hall on CNN this past September , Bryan Preston wrote , “ If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them will bring you a whole lot of Venezuela .
Thank you , CNN , just for letting these people talk .
Do it again next week ?
Please ?
”

As Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders continue to trade blows over who is more equipped to supposedly deliver a knockout punch to the firearms industry, the former vice president has zeroed in on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) — the law preventing frivolous lawsuits that seek to blame members of the firearms industry for the criminal misuse of legal, lawfully sold, non-defective firearms.
● Biden says ‘no new fracking’ for oil and gas.
Joe Biden said he would allow “no new fracking” during Sunday night’s Democratic debate after intense questioning from rival Bernie Sanders on whether Biden is serious about combating climate change. “I’m talking about stopping fracking as soon as we possibly can” and “telling the fossil fuel industry they’re going to stop destroying the planet,” the Vermont senator said, questioning Biden’s climate platform. “Your heart is in the right place,” he told Biden, but it “doesn’t take on the fossil fuel industry.”
● Biden: ‘We Can Take Millions of Vehicles Off the Road if…’
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Former Vice President Joe Biden told a CNN town hall on climate change Wednesday night that he endorses high-speed rail as a way to “take millions of vehicles off the road.” “Everything is incremental,” Biden said. For example, you talked earlier about transportation. I’ve been pushing really hard for mass transit and for rail. We can take millions of vehicles off the road if we had high-speed rail. I’ve been a champion of that for the last 25 years. We know the corridors where we could do that. It would literally take millions of vehicles off the road. But you have to have a rail system that makes people say, if I get on that rail, I will get there as fast as I would have gotten had I driven, and I can afford to do it relative to the cost of my driving. There’s a direct correlation. This is something I spent the bulk of my career on, trying to save Amtrak and a few other little things like transportation. But my point is that there are things that we can do now, — now — that can begin to change the arc in a significant way. And as we, in fact, invest in the science and the technology and the changes that are available and will come to fruition, in fact, we can make it significantly better.
After the Democratic presidential candidates’ apocalyptic-themed “climate change” town hall on CNN this past September, Bryan Preston wrote, “If you like Venezuela, voting for any of them will bring you a whole lot of Venezuela. Thank you, CNN, just for letting these people talk. Do it again next week? Please?”
h/t ED


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Fiscal Policy will now take centre stage as France has shown

One of our themes is now fully in play .
We have observed over the past year or two a shift in establishment thinking towards fiscal policy .
This had both bad and good elements .
The bad was that it reflected a reality where all the extraordinary monetary policies had proved to be much weaker than the the claims of their supporters and even worse for them were running out of road .
The current crisis has reminded us of this as we have had , for example , two emergency moves from the US Federal Reserve already , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world central bank .
A more positive factor in this has been the change we have been observing in bond yields .
We can get a handle on this by looking back at the world ’ s biggest which is the US Treasury Bond market .
Back in the autumn of 2018 when worlds like “ normalisation ” ans phrases like “ Quantitative Tightening ” were in vogue the benchmark ten year yield saw peaks around 3.15 % .
Basically it then spent most of a year halving before rallying back to 1.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and beginning of this .
But this move took place in spite of the fact that we have the Trump Tax Boost which was estimated to have an impact of the order of one trillion US Dollars .
I mention this because as well as the obvious another theme was in play which was that the Ivory Towers were wrong-footed yet again .
The Congressional Budget Office has had to keep reducing its estimate of debt costs as the rises it expected turned into falls .
Also whilst I am on this subject @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is going to turn out so well !
Best of luck with that .
Meanwhile we have seen a fair bit of volatility in bond yields but the US ten-year is 0.8 % as I type this .
Even the long bond ( 30 years ) is a relatively mere 1.4 % .
Thus borrowing is very cheap and only on Sunday night the US Federal Reserve arrived in town and did its best to keep it so .
There was an announcement yesterday evening by President Macron which was announced in gushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This morning the French Finance Minster has given some different numbers .
He went on to give some details of how it would be spent .
Now let us look at the previous position for France .
We had previously note that France was in the middle of a fiscal nudge anyway as the first half of 2019 saw quarterly deficits of 3.2 % and 3.1 % of GDP respectively , The third quarter was back within the Maastricht rules as it fell to 2.5 % of GDP but we still had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see below the national debt to GDP ratio went over 100 % Of course debt to GDP numbers have gone out of fashion partly because the “ bond vigilantes ” so rarely turn up these days .
There was a time that a debt to GDP ratio above 100 % would have them flying in but they restricted their flying well before the Corona Virus made such a move fashionable .
The French ten-year yield is up this morning but at 0.27 % is hardly a deterrent in itself to more fiscal action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low as it has ever been before this stage of the crisis a thirty-year yield of 0.8 % is up a fair bit on the 0.2 % we saw only last week .
Another factor in play is this .
Whilst only a proportion of the buying we can expect monthly purchases of French government bonds to rise from the previous 4 billion Euros or so and accordingly the total to push on from 434.4 billion .
Also whilst President Lagarde was willing to express a haughty disdain for “ bond spreads ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be charging to the rescue of France if necessary .
One feature of French life is that taxes are relatively high .
France along with some other European nations announced short-selling bans this morning which stop investors selling shares they do not own .
I pointed out that these things have a track record of failure The initial rally to over 4000 on the CAC 40 index soon wore off and we are now unchanged on the day having at one point being 100 points off .
Of course some policy work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the counterfactual .
I am expecting a lot more fiscal action in the next few days .
The French template is for a move a bit less than 2 % of GDP .
That will of course rise as GDP falls .
Frankly that looks very optimistic right now .
The situation is fast moving as doe example Airbus which only yesterday expected to remain open announced this today .
Let me now shift to the other part of the package .
The problem is how will this work in practice ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bank of England announced up to £290 billion for SMEs only last week which everyone seems to have forgotten already !
One bit that seemed rather devoid of reality to me at the time was this .
Returning to pure fiscal policy I am expecting more of it and would suggest it is aimed at two areas .
• Supporting individuals who through not fault of their own have seen incomes plunge and maybe disappear .
• Similar for small businesses and indeed larger ones which are considered vital .
Just for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the housing market where such monies have a habit of ending up .
Meanwhile a country which badly needs help is still suffering from the “ ECB not here to close bond spreads ” of Christine Lagarde last week as its ten-year yield has risen to 2.3 % .
Her open mouth operation has undone a lot of ECB buying .

by Shaun Richards
One of our themes is now fully in play. We have observed over the past year or two a shift in establishment thinking towards fiscal policy. This had both bad and good elements. The bad was that it reflected a reality where all the extraordinary monetary policies had proved to be much weaker than the the claims of their supporters and even worse for them were running out of road. The current crisis has reminded us of this as we have had, for example, two emergency moves from the US Federal Reserve already, in its role as a de facto world central bank.
A more positive factor in this has been the change we have been observing in bond yields. We can get a handle on this by looking back at the world’s biggest which is the US Treasury Bond market. Back in the autumn of 2018 when worlds like “normalisation” ans phrases like “Quantitative Tightening” were in vogue the benchmark ten year yield saw peaks around 3.15%. Basically it then spent most of a year halving before rallying back to 1.9% at the end of last year and beginning of this. But this move took place in spite of the fact that we have the Trump Tax Boost which was estimated to have an impact of the order of one trillion US Dollars. I mention this because as well as the obvious another theme was in play which was that the Ivory Towers were wrong-footed yet again. The Congressional Budget Office has had to keep reducing its estimate of debt costs as the rises it expected turned into falls. Also whilst I am on this subject I am not sure this from January is going to turn out so well!
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because
of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is
projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree
than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which
both were low, on average.
Best of luck with that.
Meanwhile we have seen a fair bit of volatility in bond yields but the US ten-year is 0.8% as I type this. Even the long bond ( 30 years) is a relatively mere 1.4%.
Thus borrowing is very cheap and only on Sunday night the US Federal Reserve arrived in town and did its best to keep it so.
over coming months the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $500 billion and its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $200 billion.
Step Forwards France
There was an announcement yesterday evening by President Macron which was announced in gushing terms by Faisal Islam of the BBC.
The €300 billion euro fiscal support package announced by Macron for the French economy, to ensure businesses dont go bust and taxes/ charges suspended, is worth about 12% of its GDP – in UK terms that would mean £265 billion…
This morning the French Finance Minster has given some different numbers.
French measures to help companies and employees weather the coronavirus storm will be worth some €45bn, the country’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire said on Tuesday. ( Financial Times)
He went on to give some details of how it would be spent.
He told RTL radio the package of financial aid, which includes payments to temporarily redundant workers and deferments of tax and social security bills, would help “the economy to restart once the corona virus epidemic is behind us”. Previously he had referred to “tens of billions of euros”.
Now let us look at the previous position for France. We had previously note that France was in the middle of a fiscal nudge anyway as the first half of 2019 saw quarterly deficits of 3.2% and 3.1% of GDP respectively, The third quarter was back within the Maastricht rules as it fell to 2.5% of GDP but we still had a boost overall and as you can see below the national debt to GDP ratio went over 100%
At the end of Q3 2019, Maastricht’s debt reached €2,415.1 billion, up €39.6 billion in comparison to Q2 2019. It accounted for 100.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), 0.9 points higher than last quarter. Net public debt increased more moderately (€+15.0 billion) and accounted for 90.3 % of GDP.
Of course debt to GDP numbers have gone out of fashion partly because the “bond vigilantes” so rarely turn up these days. There was a time that a debt to GDP ratio above 100% would have them flying in but they restricted their flying well before the Corona Virus made such a move fashionable. The French ten-year yield is up this morning but at 0.27% is hardly a deterrent in itself to more fiscal action. However whilst it is still as low as it has ever been before this stage of the crisis a thirty-year yield of 0.8% is up a fair bit on the 0.2% we saw only last week. Another factor in play is this.
Third, we decided to add a temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases of €120 billion until the end of the year, ensuring a strong contribution from the private sector purchase programmes. ( ECB )
Whilst only a proportion of the buying we can expect monthly purchases of French government bonds to rise from the previous 4 billion Euros or so and accordingly the total to push on from 434.4 billion. Also whilst President Lagarde was willing to express a haughty disdain for “bond spreads” I suspect the former French Finance Minister would be charging to the rescue of France if necessary.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
One feature of French life is that taxes are relatively high.
The tax-to-GDP ratio varies significantly between Member States, with the highest share of taxes and social
contributions in percentage of GDP in 2018 being recorded in France (48.4%), Belgium (47.2%) and Denmark
(45.9%), followed by Sweden (44.4%), Austria (42.8%), Finland (42.4%) and Italy (42.0%). ( Eurostat )
Short Selling Bans
France along with some other European nations announced short-selling bans this morning which stop investors selling shares they do not own.
#BREAKING French market regulator bans short-selling on 92 stocks: statement ( @afp )
I pointed out that these things have a track record of failure
These sort of things cause a market rally in the short-term but usually wear off in a day or two.
The initial rally to over 4000 on the CAC 40 index soon wore off and we are now unchanged on the day having at one point being 100 points off. Of course some policy work will be writing a paper reminding us of the counterfactual.
Comment
I am expecting a lot more fiscal action in the next few days. The French template is for a move a bit less than 2% of GDP. That will of course rise as GDP falls.
The French government was assuming the economy would shrink about 1 per cent this year, instead of growing more than 1 per cent as previously predicted, Mr Le Maire said. ( Financial Times)
Frankly that looks very optimistic right now. The situation is fast moving as doe example Airbus which only yesterday expected to remain open announced this today.
Following the implementation of new measures in France and Spain to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, Airbus has decided to temporarily pause production and assembly activities at its French and Spanish sites across the Company for the next four days. This will allow sufficient time to implement stringent health and safety conditions in terms of hygiene, cleaning and self-distancing, while improving the efficiency of operations under the new working conditions.
Let me now shift to the other part of the package.
Mr Le Maire said ammunition to prop up the economy also included €300bn of French state guarantees for bank loans to businesses and €1tn of such guarantees from European institutions. ( FT )
The problem is how will this work in practice? The numbers sound grand but for example the Bank of England announced up to £290 billion for SMEs only last week which everyone seems to have forgotten already! One bit that seemed rather devoid of reality to me at the time was this.
The release of the countercyclical capital buffer will support up to £190bn of bank lending to businesses. That is equivalent to 13 times banks’ net lending to businesses in 2019.
Returning to pure fiscal policy I am expecting more of it and would suggest it is aimed at two areas.
Supporting individuals who through not fault of their own have seen incomes plunge and maybe disappear. Similar for small businesses and indeed larger ones which are considered vital.
Just for clarity that does not mean for banks and the housing market where such monies have a habit of ending up.
Meanwhile a country which badly needs help is still suffering from the “ECB not here to close bond spreads” of Christine Lagarde last week as its ten-year yield has risen to 2.3%. Her open mouth operation has undone a lot of ECB buying.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--VENEZUELA: The Government Is Using Warlords to Control the People

Let´s make something clear about Venezuela .
Although some violence spikes here and there , it is not like the place is an entire mess ( not all of the time at least ) .
It´s almost a million square kilometers .
That´s a lot of space .
The country is not like the Middle East .
First , our culture is much more American ( meaning with this South American , but American nonetheless ) and there is some degree of order , usually even these days .
There are some “ official ” gangs and they roam from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ larger cities ) .
These “ official ” gangs funded by the ruling class .
These gangs are being provided with all kinds of resources and don´t lack anything the regular citizen has to make miracles to get .
Their members are chosen with poor criteria regarding morals , integrity , and values .
There is little other name for them than warlords .
The character trait the ruling class looks for , is loyalty and obedience , no matter what .
Those who can provide this and provide a degree of consolidation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ valued member .
The ruling class has been under the counseling of Cubans for years .
They have installed an intelligence apparatus just like the KGB , only that in a Caribbean environment and culture .
Common criminals are in the streets but these groups chase them and terminate them .
It´s a badly hidden secret their business is to keep middle and poor people “ safe ” by eliminating low-end criminals , but they have been linked to plenty of other illegal activities too .
This is not surprising .
It happens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have written before about criminals being released from prison and armed .
They control the society , avoiding uprisings , and at the same time , they terrify it , exhibiting an image of power and control that they necessarily don´t have .
But the ruling gangs need to show themselves as having an overwhelming power .
New combat units have been created out of thin air , under obvious duplicity of functions .
But this has been just to arm sort of a praetorian guard working just to preserve the integrity of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and looting .
It´s great such armed organizations are going to be declared as terrorist groups , because that´s what they are .
Covering faces in public is prohibited in Venezuela .
Why should a LEO do it then in the first place ?
These guys brag and walk around as if they were the saviors of the world while driving unlicensed pickup trucks .
The stories are there , all over the place .
They shot an RPG projectile to kill some rebels ( who were protected by our constitution in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pregnant woman .
So much bravery .
Think about what will happen after the Covid-19 outbreak is over .
Maybe this information is not relevant with all the priority that the COVID-2019 has arisen .
You´re right .
But what will happen after the outbreak has spread ?
What do you think is going to happen ?
What will be the behavior of such gangs , when they behave already as if they rule the place ?
Once the major , and maybe the military forces , malnourished and weakened have succumbed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won´t be there anymore .
And the citizens are unarmed to redraw it again .
Under the excuse of impeding the spreading of a possible outbreak , this will be used to try and increase the social control , even in an already crippled society as the remains of what is left in my country .
This is so unfair , that is unbelievable the world has allowed it .
My worst fears now include the fact of the outbreak being so hard , that this will make the attention to be redirected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terrible gang .
Thank God , there are people already providing consultation and advice to the administrative wing capable of doing something .
OK , enough with politics .
Let´s provide an update about some stuff that has been happening .
As most of you already know , the virus is very likely to have arrived in Venezuela .
An eastern citizen presented symptoms after coming from a trip .
He´s a senior citizen , but no more details were given .
In an incredible demonstration of media manipulation , this weekend a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Twitter .
( Remember , Venezuela has an incredible amount of bots working from Cuba via the submarine cable installed in the Chavez era , that provides communication between countries . )
Of course , this is already an attempt to build up the needed contra-pressure to prohibit public meetings…in the name of the “ public safety ” .
How many dissidents already would have already been “ victim ” of the virus ?
Especially if they were dragged from their homes and thrown in a truck with people who are really sick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presented itself after the tense situation with the Hong Kong protests .
The economic effects ?
I don´t know .
By eliminating dissidence now , the party thinks that maybe they can enjoy 30 or 35 more years of peace and silence .
Remember , they think differently to us Westerns .
They think heavily in the next 3 generations and plan according to that .
And dang , they have become good at it .
I can hardly plan for this year my next moves .
I fear not so much because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few dents here and there ) is not that bad .
I never get sick , otherwise because of my odd food choices from time to time .
But as I usually have infusions , drink coffee by the liters ( therefore yes , have some sleeping disorders ) and walk a lot , my health has improved .
I´ve lost some weight , and ate a lot of fish ( in Venezuela red meat is something that usually was in our main meals , far from the shore sea fish was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usually less tasty ) .
My main fear is for my parents , both over 70 .
They´re isolated since some time ago , though .
( smile ) .
They live in a small town , with a reduced local economy…that has been good , and sometimes bad .
We´ve had our issues , but we love and support each other no matter what .
It has been quite painful .
I posted on my Patreon website some advice an Italian doctor , a member of one of the research teams in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trust-worthy source , so I decided it was worth sharing .
Another report of what has been happening is , the warlords order their minions to go to the hospital and loot for medicines .
You can read about it at this link .
This , dear readers , is what you can expect to happen in a collapse/SHTF situation .
And it can be even worse , given the amount of zones with drug dealing/cooking and tons of other organized crime activities .
If authorities become overwhelmed , these thugs will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
My advice ?
Organize NOW .
Prepare contingency plans .
A , B , and C , and whatever other letters you may need .
911 won´t be there , trust me .
Make sure you have your own medical supplies .
A good part of your prepping budget should be addressed to the acquisition of medicines .
How to store it long term ?
I don´t know .
I almost lost 300 $ worth of medicines since I started to store antibiotics ( available without prescription ) and all kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decided to donate it to our local community infirmary , asking the nurse ( which we know personally and is a good friend , and a dependable person ) please to provide them only to those in need .
Some others were offered to friends , as we didn´t have family nearby .
It´s amazing to read the only acknowledged and accepted case of COVID-19 in Venezuela is under armed custody by the intelligence teams .
After the collapse that wiped out the economy of the country , any outbreak is very likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even worse than a war , in my opinion .
Non-human components in the equation makes things really hard to analyze and predict .
Our main problem is the lack of trustable information .
The Italian government has been entirely transparent , resulting in an infection and death rate several times higher than the reported by China .
Of course , you can´t expect reliable data being released by that kind of unelected , but self-proclaimed governments .
They don´t respect even the intellectual property , why they would have to inform the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their borders ?
They are a culture dating from thousands of years ago .
Are we little Westerns going to teach them how to rule their citizens ?
That´s how they think about the rest of the world .
On the other hand , we already have a lack of services , and if the virus happens to hit hard ( something that is entirely random ) I can´t predict what could happen .
If a humanitarian intervention wasn ’ t allowed in 2019 , it´s very likely the irregular groups impeding it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemics wipe them out too .
( Lord have mercy on their souls ) .
I am constantly asking about the preparedness level of some acquaintances and the few friends that are still enduring there , but…they´re barely surviving .
Don´t even think about preparing , but surviving one day after another .
And many of them want to leave , too .
Especially those with European parents and double nationality .
With the outbreak in Europe and the severity it has shown…well , I haven´t had too much time to question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I will surely mention it in the next few articles .
For the time being , we don´t know if the disease has affected anyone else besides that old man who came from China .
We don´t have the means to know it .
Anyone informing or reporting will be chased and imprisoned .
That´s the way that mock of a State acts .
I can only ask , this outbreak doesn´t affect us .
We´ve been hit too hard , and don´t deserve it .
Jose is an upper middle class professional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the oil state company with a Bachelor ’ s degree from one of the best national Universities .
He has a small 4 members family , plus two cats and a dog .
An old but in good shape SUV , a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood , in a small but ( formerly ) prosperous city with two middle size malls .
Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela .
Thanks to your help Jose has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They are currently setting up a new life in another country .
Follow Jose on YouTube and gain access to his exclusive content on Patreon .
Donations : paypal.me/JoseM151

by J. G. Martinez D.
Let´s make something clear about Venezuela. Although some violence spikes here and there, it is not like the place is an entire mess (not all of the time at least). It´s almost a million square kilometers. That´s a lot of space.
The country is not like the Middle East. First, our culture is much more American (meaning with this South American, but American nonetheless) and there is some degree of order, usually even these days. There are some “official” gangs and they roam from time to time (especially in the larger cities).
These “official” gangs funded by the ruling class.
These gangs are being provided with all kinds of resources and don´t lack anything the regular citizen has to make miracles to get. Their members are chosen with poor criteria regarding morals, integrity, and values. There is little other name for them than warlords.
The character trait the ruling class looks for, is loyalty and obedience, no matter what. Those who can provide this and provide a degree of consolidation to the entire gang is considered a valued member. The ruling class has been under the counseling of Cubans for years. They have installed an intelligence apparatus just like the KGB, only that in a Caribbean environment and culture.
Common criminals are in the streets but these groups chase them and terminate them. It´s a badly hidden secret their business is to keep middle and poor people “safe” by eliminating low-end criminals, but they have been linked to plenty of other illegal activities too.
This is not surprising. It happens a lot in failed states.
I have written before about criminals being released from prison and armed. They control the society, avoiding uprisings, and at the same time, they terrify it, exhibiting an image of power and control that they necessarily don´t have. But the ruling gangs need to show themselves as having an overwhelming power. New combat units have been created out of thin air, under obvious duplicity of functions. But this has been just to arm sort of a praetorian guard working just to preserve the integrity of the 183 people responsible for the mess and looting.
It´s great such armed organizations are going to be declared as terrorist groups, because that´s what they are. Covering faces in public is prohibited in Venezuela. Why should a LEO do it then in the first place? These guys brag and walk around as if they were the saviors of the world while driving unlicensed pickup trucks. The stories are there, all over the place. They shot an RPG projectile to kill some rebels (who were protected by our constitution in the Art. 350) even murdering a pregnant woman. So much bravery.
Think about what will happen after the Covid-19 outbreak is over.
Maybe this information is not relevant with all the priority that the COVID-2019 has arisen. You´re right. But what will happen after the outbreak has spread? What do you think is going to happen?
What will be the behavior of such gangs, when they behave already as if they rule the place? Once the major, and maybe the military forces, malnourished and weakened have succumbed to the contagion, that precious red line won´t be there anymore. And the citizens are unarmed to redraw it again.
Under the excuse of impeding the spreading of a possible outbreak, this will be used to try and increase the social control, even in an already crippled society as the remains of what is left in my country. This is so unfair, that is unbelievable the world has allowed it.
My worst fears now include the fact of the outbreak being so hard, that this will make the attention to be redirected, leaving us entirely vulnerable to that terrible gang.
Thank God, there are people already providing consultation and advice to the administrative wing capable of doing something. OK, enough with politics.
Covid-19 has arrived in Venezuela.
Let´s provide an update about some stuff that has been happening. As most of you already know, the virus is very likely to have arrived in Venezuela. An eastern citizen presented symptoms after coming from a trip. He´s a senior citizen, but no more details were given.
In an incredible demonstration of media manipulation, this weekend a hashtag erupted and it was positioned on Twitter. (Remember, Venezuela has an incredible amount of bots working from Cuba via the submarine cable installed in the Chavez era, that provides communication between countries.) Of course, this is already an attempt to build up the needed contra-pressure to prohibit public meetings…in the name of the “public safety”.
How many dissidents already would have already been “victim” of the virus? Especially if they were dragged from their homes and thrown in a truck with people who are really sick.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It´s highly suspicious how this virus presented itself after the tense situation with the Hong Kong protests. The economic effects? I don´t know. By eliminating dissidence now, the party thinks that maybe they can enjoy 30 or 35 more years of peace and silence. Remember, they think differently to us Westerns. They think heavily in the next 3 generations and plan according to that. And dang, they have become good at it. I can hardly plan for this year my next moves.
I fear not so much because of me. My health (with a few dents here and there) is not that bad. I never get sick, otherwise because of my odd food choices from time to time. But as I usually have infusions, drink coffee by the liters (therefore yes, have some sleeping disorders) and walk a lot, my health has improved. I´ve lost some weight, and ate a lot of fish (in Venezuela red meat is something that usually was in our main meals, far from the shore sea fish was scarce and expensive, and river fish usually less tasty). My main fear is for my parents, both over 70. They´re isolated since some time ago, though. (smile). They live in a small town, with a reduced local economy…that has been good, and sometimes bad. We´ve had our issues, but we love and support each other no matter what. It has been quite painful.
I posted on my Patreon website some advice an Italian doctor, a member of one of the research teams in China gave. It came from a trust-worthy source, so I decided it was worth sharing.
Another report of what has been happening is, the warlords order their minions to go to the hospital and loot for medicines. You can read about it at this link.
This, dear readers, is what you can expect to happen in a collapse/SHTF situation. And it can be even worse, given the amount of zones with drug dealing/cooking and tons of other organized crime activities. If authorities become overwhelmed, these thugs will be on the streets sooner than you think.
My advice? Organize NOW. Prepare contingency plans. A, B, and C, and whatever other letters you may need. 911 won´t be there, trust me.
Make sure you have your own medical supplies.
A good part of your prepping budget should be addressed to the acquisition of medicines. How to store it long term? I don´t know. I almost lost 300$ worth of medicines since I started to store antibiotics (available without prescription) and all kind of those most commonly used, but we decided to donate it to our local community infirmary, asking the nurse (which we know personally and is a good friend, and a dependable person) please to provide them only to those in need. Some others were offered to friends, as we didn´t have family nearby.
It´s amazing to read the only acknowledged and accepted case of COVID-19 in Venezuela is under armed custody by the intelligence teams. After the collapse that wiped out the economy of the country, any outbreak is very likely to generate a real SHTF situation. Even worse than a war, in my opinion. Non-human components in the equation makes things really hard to analyze and predict.
Our main problem is the lack of trustable information. The Italian government has been entirely transparent, resulting in an infection and death rate several times higher than the reported by China. Of course, you can´t expect reliable data being released by that kind of unelected, but self-proclaimed governments. They don´t respect even the intellectual property, why they would have to inform the rest of the world what happens inside their borders? They are a culture dating from thousands of years ago. Are we little Westerns going to teach them how to rule their citizens?
That´s how they think about the rest of the world.
On the other hand, we already have a lack of services, and if the virus happens to hit hard (something that is entirely random) I can´t predict what could happen. If a humanitarian intervention wasn’t allowed in 2019, it´s very likely the irregular groups impeding it will keep stubbornly their position, unless the pandemics wipe them out too. (Lord have mercy on their souls).
I am constantly asking about the preparedness level of some acquaintances and the few friends that are still enduring there, but…they´re barely surviving. Don´t even think about preparing, but surviving one day after another. And many of them want to leave, too. Especially those with European parents and double nationality. With the outbreak in Europe and the severity it has shown…well, I haven´t had too much time to question them before writing this article, but I will surely mention it in the next few articles.
For the time being, we don´t know if the disease has affected anyone else besides that old man who came from China.
We don´t have the means to know it. Anyone informing or reporting will be chased and imprisoned. That´s the way that mock of a State acts.
I can only ask, this outbreak doesn´t affect us. We´ve been hit too hard, and don´t deserve it.
Stay safe, people.
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has a small 4 members family, plus two cats and a dog. An old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Thanks to your help Jose has gotten his family out of Venezuela. They are currently setting up a new life in another country. Follow Jose on YouTube and gain access to his exclusive content on Patreon. Donations: paypal.me/JoseM151


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--We are getting started.

We are getting started.

This panic has been going on for roughly a week and a half now and people are losing their shit , we all know this .
City governments , including watershed departments are shutting down .
Some news I found out today actually .
The virus is still spreading rampant and my best guess is that most of you fuckers will end up getting it .
So you ’ re ( hopefully ) going to stay inside and not spread that shit around .
I probably have it , you probably have it , and I have no fucking clue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel like shit right now so it ’ s hard to tell .
All of these people going out to bars because they have “ nothing else to do ” are going to spread it .
The guy that put the bottles in the boxes and shipped them out are going to spread it to the people at the bars .
People at the bars are going to leave it for the next wave of bar comers .
This goes for EVERY SUPPLY CHAIN not just bars .
More people are going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ ll be a ton of unreported cases .
States are turning patients AWAY and REFUSING physician testing and treatments in hospitals .
I also know a PA which is how I know this as well .
Pilot friends are saying flights are empty as fuck and government friends are shutting down our watershed here ( specifically in Atlanta ) .
The watershed shutdown decision was literally TODAY .
They are doing everything they can in the media to hold the markets down and keep it steady , I ’ m not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is NOT over YET .
I ’ ve been living in Atlanta for four years now and I have NEVER seen the interstates so empty during rush hour times for as long as they have been , ever .
And this all started middle of last week .
So the “ stay home ” ramp up has just begun .
Trumps lack of confidence in his answers of questions asking about a recession or depression are big .
Markets are sideways right now , there will be another dip before a run back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isnt a market based on financial incompetence like it was in 2008 , it ’ s a market based on a global health impact .
The more people that stay at home , the less money in circulation .
Demand lowers .
Supply is SUPPOSED to increase , but is totally fucked up right now in global supply chains , supply has decreased .
If you looked at a Supply and Demand graph , as in simple economics , you would see that the stoicism ( equilibrium point ) is much LOWER than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trends .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by SS2907
This panic has been going on for roughly a week and a half now and people are losing their shit, we all know this. City governments, including watershed departments are shutting down. Some news I found out today actually. The virus is still spreading rampant and my best guess is that most of you fuckers will end up getting it. So you’re (hopefully) going to stay inside and not spread that shit around. I probably have it, you probably have it, and I have no fucking clue but I’m pretty healthy and feel like shit right now so it’s hard to tell.
All of these people going out to bars because they have “nothing else to do” are going to spread it. The guy that put the bottles in the boxes and shipped them out are going to spread it to the people at the bars. People at the bars are going to leave it for the next wave of bar comers. This goes for EVERY SUPPLY CHAIN not just bars. More people are going to turn up sick and infected, and they’ll be a ton of unreported cases.
States are turning patients AWAY and REFUSING physician testing and treatments in hospitals. I also know a PA which is how I know this as well. Pilot friends are saying flights are empty as fuck and government friends are shutting down our watershed here (specifically in Atlanta). The watershed shutdown decision was literally TODAY.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
They are doing everything they can in the media to hold the markets down and keep it steady, I’m not trying to fear monger but this shit is NOT over YET. I’ve been living in Atlanta for four years now and I have NEVER seen the interstates so empty during rush hour times for as long as they have been, ever. And this all started middle of last week. So the “stay home” ramp up has just begun. Trumps lack of confidence in his answers of questions asking about a recession or depression are big. Markets are sideways right now, there will be another dip before a run back to the top.
This market crash isnt a market based on financial incompetence like it was in 2008, it’s a market based on a global health impact. The more people that stay at home, the less money in circulation. Demand lowers. Supply is SUPPOSED to increase, but is totally fucked up right now in global supply chains, supply has decreased. If you looked at a Supply and Demand graph, as in simple economics, you would see that the stoicism (equilibrium point) is much LOWER than it normally would be with seasonal economic trends.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Be wary of upcoming fake-outs.

Be wary of upcoming fake-outs.

For those who have been through a prolonged bear market , feel free to skip or just comment “ ban ” .
For the newer folks here , be prepared to have your emotions fucked with big time over the next few months .
Markets can ’ t go straight down and in order to syphon money into the market so the smart guys can drink your milkshake , there have to be fake-out rallies to shake out weak hands .
A few of these dead cat bounces are going to sustain multiple days or even a week .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a higher low before going over a huge cliff .
This is especially true as we near options expiration dates .
We are in an extremely volatile market and you are going to feel sick on some days looking at your account , but just remember , there is only one reversal and typically a bunch of fake-outs .
At the rate we are dropping we would be down over 50 % by mid April if we didn ’ t have some upside swings .
I would expect we test the weekly 200 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down .
TL/DR : Bear markets have multiple fake rallies before real rally .
Be wary that market will test your emotions .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by kotdbt
For those who have been through a prolonged bear market, feel free to skip or just comment “ban”.
For the newer folks here, be prepared to have your emotions fucked with big time over the next few months. Markets can’t go straight down and in order to syphon money into the market so the smart guys can drink your milkshake, there have to be fake-out rallies to shake out weak hands.
A few of these dead cat bounces are going to sustain multiple days or even a week. We will likely make a higher high then a higher low before going over a huge cliff. This is especially true as we near options expiration dates.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We are in an extremely volatile market and you are going to feel sick on some days looking at your account, but just remember, there is only one reversal and typically a bunch of fake-outs. At the rate we are dropping we would be down over 50% by mid April if we didn’t have some upside swings. I would expect we test the weekly 200 MA or EMA before another large leg down.
TL/DR: Bear markets have multiple fake rallies before real rally. Be wary that market will test your emotions.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Why Stock Buybacks Are Dangerous for the Economy

Even as the United States continues to experience its longest economic expansion since World War II , concern is growing @ @ @ @ @ make the economy susceptible to a contraction that could get out of control .
The @ @ @ @ @ is the trillions of dollars that major U.S. corporations have spent on open-market repurchases — @ @ @ @ @ — since the financial crisis a decade ago .

hbr.org/2020/01/why-stock-buybacks-are-dangerous-for-the-economy
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Even as the United States continues to experience its longest economic expansion since World War II, concern is growing that soaring corporate debt will make the economy susceptible to a contraction that could get out of control. The root cause of this concern is the trillions of dollars that major U.S. corporations have spent on open-market repurchases — aka “stock buybacks” — since the financial crisis a decade ago.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Hawley Calls for ‘Full, International Investigation’ into China’s Coronavirus Coverup… Americans: Ch

Hawley Calls for ‘Full, International Investigation’ into China’s Coronavirus Coverup… Americans: China Should Pay For Spreading Virus, 3-in-10 Say It’s ‘War’.

Senator Josh Hawley ( R. , Mo . )
on Wednesday warned the Chinese Communist Party that it would have “ to pay ” for its attempts to coverup the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan , and called for a “ full , international investigation ” to get to the bottom of the situation .
“ There needs to be a full , international investigation of # China Communist Party ’ s actions that helped turn # coronavirus # COVID19 into a global pandemic , ” Hawley tweeted Wednesday morning .
The Chinese are to blame for this Wuhan coronavirus pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their officials refused to inform the public , and people died .
They allowed Wuhan to celebrate Chinese New Year , exposing potentially tens of thousands to the disease .
Some five million left the city before they enacted a quarantine .
And now we ’ re hearing that they knew about human transmissions .
The Wall Street Journal ’ s piece on how this whole international fiasco began all but places the blame where it should rightfully be directed : China It was on Dec. 10 that Wei Guixian , a seafood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ nan market , first started to feel sick .
Thinking she was getting a cold , she walked to a small local clinic to get some treatment and then went back to work .
Eight days later , the 57-year-old was barely conscious in a hospital bed , one of the first suspected cases in a coronavirus epidemic that has paralyzed China and gripped the global economy .
The virus has spread around the world and sickened more than 100,000 .
For almost three weeks , doctors struggled to connect the dots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , many of them Hua ’ nan vendors .
Patient after patient reported similar symptoms , but many , like her , visited small , poorly resourced clinics and hospitals .
Some patients balked at paying for chest scans ; others , including Ms. Wei , refused to be transferred to bigger facilities that were better-equipped to identify infectious diseases .
When doctors did finally establish the Hua ’ nan link in late December , they quarantined Ms. Wei and others like her and raised the alarm to their superiors .
But they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their peers , let alone the public .
One of the first doctors to alert Chinese authorities was criticized for “ spreading rumors ” after sharing with a former medical-school classmate a test result showing a patient had a coronavirus .
Another doctor had to write a self-criticism letter saying his warnings “ had a negative impact.
” Related : China Did This , and Saying So Isn ’ t Racist .
# WAR : Americans : China should pay for spreading virus , 3-in-10 say it ’ s ‘ war ’ .

Hawley Calls for ‘Full, International Investigation’ into China’s Coronavirus Coverup
Senator Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) on Wednesday warned the Chinese Communist Party that it would have “to pay” for its attempts to coverup the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, and called for a “full, international investigation” to get to the bottom of the situation.
“There needs to be a full, international investigation of #China Communist Party’s actions that helped turn #coronavirus #COVID19 into a global pandemic,” Hawley tweeted Wednesday morning.
There needs to be a full, international investigation of #China Communist Party’s actions that helped turn #coronavirus #COVID19 into a global pandemic – and #China needs to be prepared to pay other countries for the havoc the CCP has unleashed t.co/u1Uo0H0PTj — Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) March 18, 2020
CHINA LIED AND PEOPLE DIED: Chinese Scientists Destroyed Wuhan Coronavirus Evidence in December.
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The Chinese are to blame for this Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. Their containment methods were laughable, their officials refused to inform the public, and people died. They allowed Wuhan to celebrate Chinese New Year, exposing potentially tens of thousands to the disease. Some five million left the city before they enacted a quarantine. And now we’re hearing that they knew about human transmissions. The Wall Street Journal’s piece on how this whole international fiasco began all but places the blame where it should rightfully be directed: China
It was on Dec. 10 that Wei Guixian, a seafood merchant in this city’s Hua’nan market, first started to feel sick. Thinking she was getting a cold, she walked to a small local clinic to get some treatment and then went back to work. Eight days later, the 57-year-old was barely conscious in a hospital bed, one of the first suspected cases in a coronavirus epidemic that has paralyzed China and gripped the global economy. The virus has spread around the world and sickened more than 100,000. For almost three weeks, doctors struggled to connect the dots between Ms. Wei and other early cases, many of them Hua’nan vendors. Patient after patient reported similar symptoms, but many, like her, visited small, poorly resourced clinics and hospitals. Some patients balked at paying for chest scans; others, including Ms. Wei, refused to be transferred to bigger facilities that were better-equipped to identify infectious diseases. When doctors did finally establish the Hua’nan link in late December, they quarantined Ms. Wei and others like her and raised the alarm to their superiors. But they were prevented by Chinese authorities from alerting their peers, let alone the public. One of the first doctors to alert Chinese authorities was criticized for “spreading rumors” after sharing with a former medical-school classmate a test result showing a patient had a coronavirus. Another doctor had to write a self-criticism letter saying his warnings “had a negative impact.”
Related: China Did This, and Saying So Isn’t Racist.
#WAR: Americans: China should pay for spreading virus, 3-in-10 say it’s ‘war’.