investmentwatchblog--2020-05-23--Workplace commuters were often customers of UBER. Many of these customers and their “rideshare” busi

Workplace commuters were often customers of UBER. Many of these customers and their “rideshare” business won’t come back, as companies instituted forever WFH policy. As much as 25-30% of the workforce will be working from home by the end of 2021.

UBER ’ s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi once sold UBER as the next Amazon , promising that “ cars are to us what books are to Amazon.
” Link here .
Khosrowshahi , who was Barry Diller ’ s top salesman for a decade , pitched the taxi-hailing app , repackaged as “ rideshare ” , as simply the first step on a journey to global domination .
UBER would enter and dominate “ food delivery , freight , autonomous vehicles , and even buses and bikes ” .
Later , he added flying cars .
By 2023 , Khosrowshahi continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ network for a city !
As recently as UBER ’ s latest 10-K , filed in February , UBER characterized its Freight business as “ revolutionizing ” the freight industry .
And now they are simply going to shut it down ?
None of these promises have ever happened , of course , and with this week ’ s forced retrenchment , likely never will .
Severe and unsustainable cash losses have forced UBER to ratchet back its strategic ambitions ; to raise another $ 1.0BN of junk bonds at a steep 7.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least 25 % .
UBER will likely cut its “ non-core ” businesses , including freight , autonomous vehicles , flying cars , artificial intelligence , and job matching .
These businesses , together , were the secret sauce that was to turn a simple and old-fashioned taxi-hailing app into the next big thing , rivaling Amazon in the scope and reach of its operations .
These promises were what drew investors as big as Texas Pacific Group and Softbank in at valuations north of $ 70BN and even promised to approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in the here and now , is only able to generate revenues of $ 14BN , with growth slowing sharply , while margins remain massively negative , and billions of cash losses pile up – and that best case was pre-COVID !
Now , UBER faces a sharply diminished TAM , or total addressable market , as it gives up its ambitions to expand beyond taxi-hailing and food delivery , and major American and international corporations in various industries , including technology , media , real estate , airlines , hotels , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a world of sharply diminished transportation needs .
Where workers will shift to permanently working from home ; where international travel will be diminished for years ; where even domestic destination travel will face diminished capacity and utilization .
None of this has yet sunk into the minds of equity market investors .
Diminution of Total Addressable Market .
Uber is likely abandoning its ambitions to be a leader and create a revenue generating business in nearly every area besides its core taxi-hail and food delivery business .
These early-non-core businesses , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that UBER was not just an old-fashioned transportation company making use of the latest technology – smartphone apps – but an actual technology company , with the same opportunity for horizontal expansion as Amazon .
This hope was among the reasons why a negative cash burn of several billion dollars for a seemingly mundane business could turn into a $ 59 BN valuation .
That hope is gone .
For its remaining core business , taxi-hail , the world has changed : First , we start with the massive secular change we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we move on to the lengthy and even semi-permanent changes to restaurants and travel .
We are witnessing a generational acceleration in work-from-home , in which commuting to and from work is facing the biggest and fastest change in its history .
Companies such as Google , Square , and Twitter are preparing for a future in which employees may work remotely – forever .
Others such as Facebook , JP Morgan , Citibank , American Express and Microsoft have taken steps in this direction .
Employees who commuted to these workplace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many of these customers and their “ rideshare ” business won ’ t come back .
Here is a sampling of recent headlines that will negatively impact UBER – for at least several quarters in some cases , permanently in others : First , Twitter .
This one is permanent : Next , we have Square , also offering permanence : Now , we turn to Facebook , who for now , is only planning until the end of the year : Now we will shift to the banks , which are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also seeking semi-permanent shifts away from urban centers , another hit to UBER ’ s business : Citi is but one example ; the list goes on and on , and is only growing by the day .
Next , we have buy in to work from home from the media , who indicate that working from home is the right thing to do : And the NY Times weighs in on the nascent trend : We also have consultancies now adding their voices to the chorus of work from home : Surveys @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing movement for work-from-home accommodations .
Global Workplace Analytics , a leading authority on integrated work at home strategies , recently published a report in which they forecast that as much as 25-30 % of the workforce will be working from home by the end of 2021 .
See the full report here : These are the thought leaders .
We are witnessing a tsunami of potentially permanently lost taxi-hail business for these former commuters .
While some of the headlines may say only through 2020 , these arrangements are likely to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now , the rest of the ride-share customer universe : the restaurant , travel and leisure industry have been decimated , with full year 2020 volumes estimated to be down anywhere from nearly 20 % ( fast food ) to 40 % ( hotels ) to more than 50 % ( airlines and certain destination-based entertainment . )
Obviously , none of these industries by themselves comprise UBER ’ s exact customer base , but taken collectively , they are representative of what has happened to the total addressable market : it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retreat , 25 % work force reduction , revenue collapse , junk debt capital raise , and multi-billion dollar cash burn , one thing stands out : UBER ’ s high flying stock , which has surged this week along with the NASDAQ market to a new high for the year of $ 59 billion , now up 16 % on the year .
Stated another way , stock buyers have treated COVID-19 and its catastrophic impact on UBER ’ s revenues and margins as a net positive catalyst .
This stands in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operating in and round UBER ’ s universe , including hotels , airlines , lodging , office space , and even other “ unicorns ” .
We highlight the 2020 changes in valuation of numerous companies that derive revenues from similar underlying strategic drivers as UBER : commuting to work , commuting to airports , commuting to leisure activities , commuting to restaurants and bars , and commuting to vacation .
We lay out the year to date equity returns , followed by consensus changes to 2020 forecast revenues .
Every data point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely inconsistent with its related peer group .
First , we frame UBER ’ s equity valuation change year to date , along with the consensus expectation for 2020 Revenues , and list how they have changed , showing the January 1 , 2020 consensus estimate , followed by the current 2020 consensus estimate .
As you can see , UBER is up 16 % year to date , while its 2020E Revenue expectations have been reduced by 29 % .
Then , we turn to the various comparably impacted industries , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as airports are a primary source and destination of UBER customers , and note the average hit to airline valuation has been 66 % , while the average expected hit to revenues in 2020 has been 56 % .
Next , we look at Hotels , a common destination and origin for UBER customers , where you can see the average hotel has taken a 39 % valuation hit , while the expected revenue decline is 40 % .
Office REITS , which we also use as a proxy of demand for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average 42 % decline in valuation , with only a 5 % hit to revenues .
Here , the financial forecasts are out of sync with the change in valuation .
Even the out years look similar .
Expect the numbers to come down , significantly .
Restaurants are a large and fractured group , and we chose McDonalds as simply a directional indicator : And finally , the still-private “ unicorns ” , who bear much structural similarity to UBER , particularly AirBnB which also was forced to fire 25 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its strategic scope to “ core ” operations while giving up on growth opportunities .
Here , you will see that AirBnB recently took a 52.6 % hit to its private market valuation since 2019 , and WeWork took a 60 % hit to its December 2019 valuation ( which was itself an 84 % hit to its January 2019 valuation ) .
AirBnB ’ s CEO also wrote a letter that sounds nearly identical to UBER ’ s CEO “ I ’ m-sorry-but-you ’ re-fired , our business is collapsing ” letter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : UBER ’ s entire ecosystem has experienced a volume and valuation collapse compared to UBER ’ s year to date double digit stock price growth .
This stock price growth is inconsistent with the underlying data .
We specifically concede that none of these companies are perfect comparables , but all derive revenues from a similar ecosystem : the home-work-travel-leisure nexus , and their customers must be transported somehow to their offices , their hotels , their airports , and their leisure AirBnB vacations .
Together , they paint a picture : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ignored the reality of a collapsed ecosystem , and is the only related equity that not only has not collapsed , but is actually UP double digits on the year .
Will UBER ’ s business come back ?
Absolutely , some of it will come back .
The travel/airline/hotel transport nexus actually has the highest probability of coming back , but the longest lead time .
These won ’ t see even a near-full recovery for several years , in line with forecasts for hotel and airlines revenue .
The most at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commuting : many employers are in the process of shifting to permanent work-from-home arrangements .
UBER will never recover this revenue .
Much of the work commute revenue IS NEVER COMING BACK .
Thus , UBER ’ s TAM has shrunk .
What do the taxi-hail , or Rides , and Eats businesses really look like on a stand-alone basis ?
What are they worth ?
UBER shows a separate revenue and “ adjusted ” EBITDA figure for each of its remaining core businesses .
Here is a snapshot of historical revenue breakdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rides business represents 72 % of total revenues , and its growth has flat-lined near zero .
Now , this included 2 weeks post-COVID shutdown , so we can assume it may have been able to reach a positive low single digit growth number .
Eats grew at a low double digit number , and represents around 19 % of total revenue .
EBITDA is not as straightforward , as many adjustments and exclusions are made .
What we know with certainty is that the consolidated business produced negative $ 2.468 billion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As for segments , UBER shows a positive $ 2.460 billion of Rides EBITDA , but that excludes more than $ 4.0 billion of stock-based compensation , and it also excludes more than $ 2.5 billion of un-allocated corporate overhead .
See worksheet below : The exclusions are of such a magnitude as to render the supposed $ 2.46 billion of EBITDA to be nearly meaningless .
Could they have generated this without paying out $ 4.0 billion in stock compensation ?
Did the $ 2.5 billion spent on general and administrative , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the Rides business ?
Of course it did .
These numbers can no more be excluded than any business can disown its business expenses !
So we have a 11-year old business whose top line growth has settled in around a low single digit number that currently loses $ 2.5 billion a year in consolidated EBITDA .
Should they cut $ 1.0 billion of costs , that is helpful , but the enterprise would still be losing more than $ 1.0 billion on an adjusted-EBITDA basis .
The Eats business loses money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to continue to lose money for the foreseeable future .
So where could UBER ’ s EBITDA number go ?
This is difficult to say .
UBER is hoping to break even on an adjusted-EBITDA basis sometime next year .
While I am doubtful that will happen , even it it did , we would have a low growth business in a highly competitive market that at some point in the future could grow that break-even EBITDA into a billion or a few billion of EBITDA .
What is that worth ?
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless growth suddenly shoots back into the 20 % range or higher , its hard to see a slow growing EBITDA in such a simple business with no barriers to entry commanding a double digit EBITDA valuation multiple .
Let ’ s call the midpoint 10x .
So 10x 2022E or 2023E EBITDA of $ 1.0 or $ 2.0 billion is $ 10 – $ 20 billion of enterprise value .
And remember , that while UBER can shut down much of its non-core growth/upside assets , it can not simply get rid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including the recently raised $ 1.0 billion of junk debt that pays a steep 7.5 % coupon .
If we generously ignore the Eats losses , assume net debt in 2 years will be maybe $ 4 – $ 6 billion , and the share count remains the same ( which is overly conservative ) , then we are left with the following valuation , which indicates an equity value that ranges from $ 2 to $ 11 : $ billions Valuation 2022E 2023E Adjusted Company EBITDA $ 1.0 $ 2.0 Multiple Enterprise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 9.0 $ 18.0 10.0x $ 10.0 $ 20.0 11.0x $ 11.0 $ 22.0 12.0x $ 12.0 $ 24.0 Less : Net Debt ( $ 4.0 ) ( $ 4.0 ) Equity Value 8.0x $ 4.0 $ 12.0 9.0x $ 5.0 $ 14.0 10.0x $ 6.0 $ 16.0 11.0x $ 7.0 $ 18.0 12.0x $ 8.0 $ 20.0 Shares Outstanding ( billions ) 1.734 Equity Value per Share 8.0x $ 2.31 $ 6.92 9.0x $ 2.88 $ 8.07 10.0x $ 3.46 $ 9.23 11.0x $ 4.04 $ 10.38 12.0x $ 4.61 $ 11.53 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high for a time period that is at least 2 years into the future . )
The market is wrongly ascribing a $ 59 billion equity valuation for a Company that is collapsing its workforce , reigning in its growth ambitions , and signaling much diminished growth in the future , while it bleeds down cash to the tune of more than $ 5BN a year .
It is faced with a nearly insurmountable $ 9 Billion junk debt pile .
With this week ’ s announcements of strategy retrenchment and narrowing of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worth $ 2.31 to $ 11.63 per share , compared to its current $ 34.48 price .
Disclosure : I am/we are short UBER .
I wrote this article myself , and it expresses my own opinions .
I am not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ) .
I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article .

seekingalpha.com/article/4349297-uber-announces-much-diminished-tam
UBER’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi once sold UBER as the next Amazon, promising that “cars are to us what books are to Amazon.” Link here. Khosrowshahi, who was Barry Diller’s top salesman for a decade, pitched the taxi-hailing app, repackaged as “rideshare”, as simply the first step on a journey to global domination. UBER would enter and dominate “food delivery, freight, autonomous vehicles, and even buses and bikes”. Later, he added flying cars. By 2023, Khosrowshahi continued, UBER could run the entire transportation network for a city! As recently as UBER’s latest 10-K, filed in February, UBER characterized its Freight business as “revolutionizing” the freight industry. And now they are simply going to shut it down? None of these promises have ever happened, of course, and with this week’s forced retrenchment, likely never will.
Severe and unsustainable cash losses have forced UBER to ratchet back its strategic ambitions; to raise another $1.0BN of junk bonds at a steep 7.5%, and reduce on-the-books headcount by at least 25%. UBER will likely cut its “non-core” businesses, including freight, autonomous vehicles, flying cars, artificial intelligence, and job matching. These businesses, together, were the secret sauce that was to turn a simple and old-fashioned taxi-hailing app into the next big thing, rivaling Amazon in the scope and reach of its operations. These promises were what drew investors as big as Texas Pacific Group and Softbank in at valuations north of $70BN and even promised to approach $100BN – for a business that, in the here and now, is only able to generate revenues of $14BN, with growth slowing sharply, while margins remain massively negative, and billions of cash losses pile up – and that best case was pre-COVID!
Now, UBER faces a sharply diminished TAM, or total addressable market, as it gives up its ambitions to expand beyond taxi-hailing and food delivery, and major American and international corporations in various industries, including technology, media, real estate, airlines, hotels, and entertainment destinations all prepare us for a world of sharply diminished transportation needs. Where workers will shift to permanently working from home; where international travel will be diminished for years; where even domestic destination travel will face diminished capacity and utilization.
None of this has yet sunk into the minds of equity market investors.
THESIS
Diminution of Total Addressable Market. Uber is likely abandoning its ambitions to be a leader and create a revenue generating business in nearly every area besides its core taxi-hail and food delivery business. These early-non-core businesses, while inchoate and pre-revenue, gave investors hope that UBER was not just an old-fashioned transportation company making use of the latest technology – smartphone apps – but an actual technology company, with the same opportunity for horizontal expansion as Amazon. This hope was among the reasons why a negative cash burn of several billion dollars for a seemingly mundane business could turn into a $59 BN valuation. That hope is gone.
For its remaining core business, taxi-hail, the world has changed:
Negative Secular Changes to UBER’s Core Business
First, we start with the massive secular change we are witnessing in the American workplace. Then, we move on to the lengthy and even semi-permanent changes to restaurants and travel.
We are witnessing a generational acceleration in work-from-home, in which commuting to and from work is facing the biggest and fastest change in its history. Companies such as Google, Square, and Twitter are preparing for a future in which employees may work remotely – forever. Others such as Facebook, JP Morgan, Citibank, American Express and Microsoft have taken steps in this direction. Employees who commuted to these workplace jobs were often customers of UBER. Many of these customers and their “rideshare” business won’t come back. Here is a sampling of recent headlines that will negatively impact UBER – for at least several quarters in some cases, permanently in others:
First, Twitter. This one is permanent:
Next, we have Square, also offering permanence:
Now, we turn to Facebook, who for now, is only planning until the end of the year:
Now we will shift to the banks, which are not only continuing work from home, but also seeking semi-permanent shifts away from urban centers, another hit to UBER’s business:
Citi is but one example; the list goes on and on, and is only growing by the day.
Next, we have buy in to work from home from the media, who indicate that working from home is the right thing to do:
And the NY Times weighs in on the nascent trend:
We also have consultancies now adding their voices to the chorus of work from home:
Surveys also indicate there is a new and growing movement for work-from-home accommodations. Global Workplace Analytics, a leading authority on integrated work at home strategies, recently published a report in which they forecast that as much as 25-30% of the workforce will be working from home by the end of 2021. See the full report here:
Work-at-Home After Covid-19-Our Forecast – Global Workplace Analytics
These are the thought leaders. We are witnessing a tsunami of potentially permanently lost taxi-hail business for these former commuters. While some of the headlines may say only through 2020, these arrangements are likely to be made permanent in many cases.
And now, the rest of the ride-share customer universe: the restaurant, travel and leisure industry have been decimated, with full year 2020 volumes estimated to be down anywhere from nearly 20% (fast food) to 40% (hotels) to more than 50% (airlines and certain destination-based entertainment.)
Obviously, none of these industries by themselves comprise UBER’s exact customer base, but taken collectively, they are representative of what has happened to the total addressable market: it is severely impaired.
Selected Peer Group Performance 2020
Throughout the latest strategy retreat, 25% work force reduction, revenue collapse, junk debt capital raise, and multi-billion dollar cash burn, one thing stands out: UBER’s high flying stock, which has surged this week along with the NASDAQ market to a new high for the year of $59 billion, now up 16% on the year. Stated another way, stock buyers have treated COVID-19 and its catastrophic impact on UBER’s revenues and margins as a net positive catalyst. This stands in stark contrast to the many other companies operating in and round UBER’s universe, including hotels, airlines, lodging, office space, and even other “unicorns”.
We highlight the 2020 changes in valuation of numerous companies that derive revenues from similar underlying strategic drivers as UBER: commuting to work, commuting to airports, commuting to leisure activities, commuting to restaurants and bars, and commuting to vacation. We lay out the year to date equity returns, followed by consensus changes to 2020 forecast revenues. Every data point indicates UBER’s valuation change is completely inconsistent with its related peer group.
First, we frame UBER’s equity valuation change year to date, along with the consensus expectation for 2020 Revenues, and list how they have changed, showing the January 1, 2020 consensus estimate, followed by the current 2020 consensus estimate.
As you can see, UBER is up 16% year to date, while its 2020E Revenue expectations have been reduced by 29%.
Then, we turn to the various comparably impacted industries, as described above. We start with Airlines, as airports are a primary source and destination of UBER customers, and note the average hit to airline valuation has been 66%, while the average expected hit to revenues in 2020 has been 56%.
Next, we look at Hotels, a common destination and origin for UBER customers, where you can see the average hotel has taken a 39% valuation hit, while the expected revenue decline is 40%.
Office REITS, which we also use as a proxy of demand for commuting to work, have seen an average 42% decline in valuation, with only a 5% hit to revenues. Here, the financial forecasts are out of sync with the change in valuation. Even the out years look similar. Expect the numbers to come down, significantly.
Restaurants are a large and fractured group, and we chose McDonalds as simply a directional indicator:
And finally, the still-private “unicorns”, who bear much structural similarity to UBER, particularly AirBnB which also was forced to fire 25% of its work force, and to reduce its strategic scope to “core” operations while giving up on growth opportunities. Here, you will see that AirBnB recently took a 52.6% hit to its private market valuation since 2019, and WeWork took a 60% hit to its December 2019 valuation (which was itself an 84% hit to its January 2019 valuation). AirBnB’s CEO also wrote a letter that sounds nearly identical to UBER’s CEO “I’m-sorry-but-you’re-fired, our business is collapsing” letter.
The overall context should be clear: UBER’s entire ecosystem has experienced a volume and valuation collapse compared to UBER’s year to date double digit stock price growth. This stock price growth is inconsistent with the underlying data.
We specifically concede that none of these companies are perfect comparables, but all derive revenues from a similar ecosystem: the home-work-travel-leisure nexus, and their customers must be transported somehow to their offices, their hotels, their airports, and their leisure AirBnB vacations. Together, they paint a picture: UBER’s equity price has largely ignored the reality of a collapsed ecosystem, and is the only related equity that not only has not collapsed, but is actually UP double digits on the year.
Will UBER’s business come back? Absolutely, some of it will come back. The travel/airline/hotel transport nexus actually has the highest probability of coming back, but the longest lead time. These won’t see even a near-full recovery for several years, in line with forecasts for hotel and airlines revenue. The most at risk revenue is actually related to work commuting: many employers are in the process of shifting to permanent work-from-home arrangements. UBER will never recover this revenue. Much of the work commute revenue IS NEVER COMING BACK. Thus, UBER’s TAM has shrunk.
UBER’s Core, or The Remaining Businesses
What do the taxi-hail, or Rides, and Eats businesses really look like on a stand-alone basis? What are they worth?
UBER shows a separate revenue and “adjusted” EBITDA figure for each of its remaining core businesses.
Here is a snapshot of historical revenue breakdown:
As you can see, the Rides business represents 72% of total revenues, and its growth has flat-lined near zero. Now, this included 2 weeks post-COVID shutdown, so we can assume it may have been able to reach a positive low single digit growth number. Eats grew at a low double digit number, and represents around 19% of total revenue.
EBITDA is not as straightforward, as many adjustments and exclusions are made. What we know with certainty is that the consolidated business produced negative $2.468 billion of EBITDA for the last 12 months. As for segments, UBER shows a positive $2.460 billion of Rides EBITDA, but that excludes more than $4.0 billion of stock-based compensation, and it also excludes more than $2.5 billion of un-allocated corporate overhead. See worksheet below:
The exclusions are of such a magnitude as to render the supposed $2.46 billion of EBITDA to be nearly meaningless. Could they have generated this without paying out $4.0 billion in stock compensation? Did the $2.5 billion spent on general and administrative, and R&D have any impact on the Rides business? Of course it did. These numbers can no more be excluded than any business can disown its business expenses!
So we have a 11-year old business whose top line growth has settled in around a low single digit number that currently loses $2.5 billion a year in consolidated EBITDA. Should they cut $1.0 billion of costs, that is helpful, but the enterprise would still be losing more than $1.0 billion on an adjusted-EBITDA basis. The Eats business loses money and remains hyper-competitive. It is likely to continue to lose money for the foreseeable future.
So where could UBER’s EBITDA number go? This is difficult to say. UBER is hoping to break even on an adjusted-EBITDA basis sometime next year. While I am doubtful that will happen, even it it did, we would have a low growth business in a highly competitive market that at some point in the future could grow that break-even EBITDA into a billion or a few billion of EBITDA. What is that worth? We can look at a range, but unless growth suddenly shoots back into the 20% range or higher, its hard to see a slow growing EBITDA in such a simple business with no barriers to entry commanding a double digit EBITDA valuation multiple. Let’s call the midpoint 10x. So 10x 2022E or 2023E EBITDA of $1.0 or $2.0 billion is $10 – $20 billion of enterprise value. And remember, that while UBER can shut down much of its non-core growth/upside assets, it can not simply get rid of its $9BN debt pile, including the recently raised $1.0 billion of junk debt that pays a steep 7.5% coupon.
If we generously ignore the Eats losses, assume net debt in 2 years will be maybe $4 – $6 billion, and the share count remains the same (which is overly conservative), then we are left with the following valuation, which indicates an equity value that ranges from $2 to $11:
$ billions
Valuation 2022E 2023E Adjusted Company EBITDA $1.0 $2.0 Multiple Enterprise Value 8.0x $8.0 $16.0 9.0x $9.0 $18.0 10.0x $10.0 $20.0 11.0x $11.0 $22.0 12.0x $12.0 $24.0 Less:
Net Debt ($4.0) ($4.0) Equity Value
8.0x $4.0 $12.0 9.0x $5.0 $14.0 10.0x $6.0 $16.0 11.0x $7.0 $18.0 12.0x $8.0 $20.0 Shares Outstanding (billions) 1.734
Equity Value per Share
8.0x $2.31 $6.92 9.0x $2.88 $8.07 10.0x $3.46 $9.23 11.0x $4.04 $10.38 12.0x $4.61 $11.53 (Note, these multiples are very high for a time period that is at least 2 years into the future.)
Conclusion
The market is wrongly ascribing a $59 billion equity valuation for a Company that is collapsing its workforce, reigning in its growth ambitions, and signaling much diminished growth in the future, while it bleeds down cash to the tune of more than $5BN a year. It is faced with a nearly insurmountable $9 Billion junk debt pile.
With this week’s announcements of strategy retrenchment and narrowing of its business opportunity, UBER is potentially worth $2.31 to $11.63 per share, compared to its current $34.48 price.
Disclosure: I am/we are short UBER. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-23--What you see here is we need more pump. The red curve is not steep enough.

Check out the velocity of money chart over the same period So basically banks are hoarding all the money we @ @ @

by bebesiege
Check out the velocity of money chart over the same period
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
So basically banks are hoarding all the money we gave them.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-23--Moderna Vaccine has 20% “Serious” Injury Rate. Insiders Cashed Out Nearly $30M the Day They Revealed

Moderna Vaccine has 20% “Serious” Injury Rate. Insiders Cashed Out Nearly $30M the Day They Revealed Promising Results

What could possibly go wrong with a fast-tracked vaccine ?
The vaccine , developed and championed by Anthony Fauci and financed by Bill Gates , used an experimental mRNA technology that the two men hoped would allow rapid deployment to meet President Trump ’ s ambitious “ warp speed ” time line .
Dr. Fauci was so confident of his shot ’ s safety that he waived ferret and primate studies ( Moderna suspiciously reported no specific health data from its mouse studies ) .
That appears to have been a mistake .
Moderna did not release its clinical trial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ press release , which was freighted with inconsistencies acknowledged that three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “ Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention.
” Moderna allowed only exceptionally healthy volunteers to participate in the study .
A vaccine with those reaction rates could cause grave injuries in 1.5 billion humans if administered to “ every person on earth ” .
That is the threshold that Gates has established for ending the global lockdown .
Moderna did not explain why it reported positive antibody tests for only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disappointing because the most hazardous hurdle for the inoculation is still ahead ; challenging participants with wild COVID infection .
Past attempts at developing COVID vaccines have always faltered at this stage as both humans and animals achieved robust antibody response then sickened and died when exposed to the wild virus .

by gallantfarms
What could possibly go wrong with a fast-tracked vaccine?
The vaccine, developed and championed by Anthony Fauci and financed by Bill Gates, used an experimental mRNA technology that the two men hoped would allow rapid deployment to meet President Trump’s ambitious “warp speed” time line. Dr. Fauci was so confident of his shot’s safety that he waived ferret and primate studies (Moderna suspiciously reported no specific health data from its mouse studies). That appears to have been a mistake.
Moderna did not release its clinical trial study or raw data, but its press release, which was freighted with inconsistencies acknowledged that three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention.”
Moderna allowed only exceptionally healthy volunteers to participate in the study. A vaccine with those reaction rates could cause grave injuries in 1.5 billion humans if administered to “every person on earth”.
That is the threshold that Gates has established for ending the global lockdown. Moderna did not explain why it reported positive antibody tests for only eight participants.
These outcomes are particularly disappointing because the most hazardous hurdle for the inoculation is still ahead; challenging participants with wild COVID infection.
Past attempts at developing COVID vaccines have always faltered at this stage as both humans and animals achieved robust antibody response then sickened and died when exposed to the wild virus.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--S&P 500 – pullback coming?

S&P 500 – pullback coming?

S & P 500 – pullback coming ?
?
?
After the 1929 down move , the markets rallied back @ @ @ @ @ fib before declining once again 50 % 297.87 minus 218.26 = 79.61 .
298 minus @ @ @ @ @ up ?
?
?
Will China do something to a FAAMNG stock , like Apple @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/kVrQdENZJd The Bear View – 3 Peaks and a Dome House or the Bull View @ @ @ @ @ to the P & F Charts – Post Memorial Day POMO $ 5 Billion a @ @ @ @ @ Month – June is the end of quarter & warning season for equities before the @ @ @ @ @ June 30th .
July earning pic.twitter.com/zA9oacFMjB

S&P 500 – pullback coming??? After the 1929 down move, the markets rallied back to the 61.8% reversal fib before declining once again 50% 297.87 minus 218.26 = 79.61. 298 minus 40 = 258 SPY coming up??? Will China do something to a FAAMNG stock, like Apple to defeat Trump?? pic.twitter.com/kVrQdENZJd
The Bear View – 3 Peaks and a Dome House or the Bull View – 3 peak breakout according to the P&F Charts – Post Memorial Day POMO $5 Billion a day, then end of Month – June is the end of quarter & warning season for equities before the end of the quarter on June 30th. July earning pic.twitter.com/zA9oacFMjB
— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) May 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Welcome to a taste of communism , California. Got this citation because we had employees who just fi

Welcome to a taste of communism , California .
Got this citation because we had employees who just finished their @ @ @ @ @ their take out meal .
Completely socially distanced from any customer picking up their food @ @ @ @ @ thug .
$ 1000 fine .
pic.twitter.com/pzpPEGRldF

Welcome to a taste of communism , California. Got this citation because we had employees who just finished their shifts enjoying shift waiting for their take out meal. Completely socially distanced from any customer picking up their food. No warning by this thug . $1000 fine. pic.twitter.com/pzpPEGRldF
— Bill Celli 🐚👣🐚 (@Aldo_9111) May 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--If the Fed accurately measured inflation…

I wrote this a while ago , but it compares prices and incomes from two eras .
While everything has @ @ @ @ @ prices have soared much faster than incomes .
Everything on the list , except milk @ @ @ @ @ the average worker .
Thanks Fed !
t.co/T2XsZD4nmX pic.twitter.com/Mbpzla4MYe

I wrote this a while ago, but it compares prices and incomes from two eras. While everything has soared in $ terms, prices have soared much faster than incomes. Everything on the list, except milk, is more expensive to the average worker. Thanks Fed!t.co/T2XsZD4nmX pic.twitter.com/Mbpzla4MYe
— Peter Schmidt (The 92ers) (@The92ers) May 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--What could possibly go wrong? The number of accounts, trading activity, and options speculation has

What could possibly go wrong? The number of accounts, trading activity, and options speculation has never been higher among the bored-at-home-wearing-sweatpants crowd.

The number of accounts , trading activity , and options speculation has never been higher among the bored-at-home-wearing-sweatpants crowd .
@ @ @ @ @ the day… I read an article which was talking about “ how the Americans spent @ @ @ @ @ this crisis ” and I think that they had to put this chart inside the @ @ @ @ @ , was talking about this pic.twitter.com/mHLDSwT7rh What could possibly go wrong ?
# Bubbles t.co/uvcfQohXbx @ @ @ @ @ death cross on the weekly chart was Great Financial Crisis .
Looks like if history @ @ @ @ @ more dump to new lows $ RTY $ IWM pic.twitter.com/Sn2fv3FzFw

The number of accounts, trading activity, and options speculation has never been higher among the bored-at-home-wearing-sweatpants crowd. pic.twitter.com/zr7ZIG22PE
Your ETF stat of the day…
I read an article which was talking about “how the Americans spent their 1200$ checks during this crisis” and I think that they had to put this chart inside the article, which in fact, was talking about this pic.twitter.com/mHLDSwT7rh
What could possibly go wrong? #Bubbles t.co/uvcfQohXbx
Small Caps
Last time we saw a death cross on the weekly chart was Great Financial Crisis.
Looks like if history repeats we should see one more dump to new lows $RTY $IWM pic.twitter.com/Sn2fv3FzFw
— Chart Trader 360 (@ChartTrader360) May 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Many in U.S. won’t return to gym or dining out. Overall macro correlations continue to rise. Our eco

Many in U.S. won’t return to gym or dining out. Overall macro correlations continue to rise. Our economy may be headed for a decade of depression?

`` The vast majority of people laid off this spring assumed they ’ d be back at their jobs fairly soon .
It is becoming more clear now that for many , that was wishful thinking . ''
t.co/Wkfqv5MWPl Intelligencer recently spoke with Roubini about our impending doom .
You predict that the coronavirus recession will be followed by a lackluster recovery and global depression .
The financial markets ostensibly see a much brighter future .
What are they missing and why ?
Well , first of all , my prediction is not for 2020 .
It ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by the middle of the coming decade , lead us into a “ Greater Depression.
” Markets , of course , have a shorter horizon .
In the short run , I expect a U-shaped recovery while the markets seem to be pricing in a V-shape recovery .
Of course the markets are going higher because there ’ s a massive monetary stimulus , there ’ s a massive fiscal stimulus .
People expect that the news about the contagion will improve , and that there ’ s going to be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And there is an element “ FOMO ” [ fear of missing out ] ; there are millions of new online accounts — unemployed people sitting at home doing day-trading — and they ’ re essentially playing the market based on pure sentiment .
My view is that there ’ s going to be a meaningful correction once people realize this is going to be a U-shaped recovery .
If you listen carefully to what Fed officials are saying — or even what JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are saying — initially they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but now they ’ re all saying , well , maybe it ’ s going to be more of a U .
The consensus is moving in a different direction .
Your prediction of a weak recovery seems predicated on there being a persistent shortfall in consumer demand due to income lost during the pandemic .
A bullish investor might counter that the Cares Act has left the bulk of laid-off workers with as much — if not more — income than they had been earning at their former jobs .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are typically earning as much as they used to , but spending far less .
Together , this might augur a surge in post-pandemic spending that powers a V-shaped recovery .
What does the bullish story get wrong ?
Yes , there are unemployment benefits .
And some unemployed people may be making more money than when they were working .
But those unemployment benefits are going to run out in July .
The consensus says the unemployment rate is headed to 25 percent .
Maybe we get lucky .
Maybe there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only goes to 16 percent .
Either way , tons of people are going to lose unemployment benefits in July .
And if they ’ re rehired , it ’ s not going to be like before — formal employment , full benefits .
You want to come back to work at my restaurant ?
Tough luck .
I can hire you only on an hourly basis with no benefits and a low wage .
That ’ s what every business is going to be offering .
Meanwhile , many , many people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any kind .
It took us ten years — between 2009 and 2019 — to create 22 million jobs .
And we ’ ve lost 30 million jobs in two months .
So when unemployment benefits expire , lots of people aren ’ t going to have any income .
Those who do get jobs are going to work under more miserable conditions than before .
And people , even middle-income people , given the shock that has just occurred — which could happen again in the summer , could happen again in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want more precautionary savings .
You are going to cut back on discretionary spending .
Your credit score is going to be worse .
Are you going to go buy a home ?
Are you gon na buy a car ?
Are you going to dine out ?
In Germany and China , they already reopened all the stores a month ago .
You look at any survey , the restaurants are totally empty .
Almost nobody ’ s buying anything .
Everybody ’ s worried and cautious .
And this is in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only one percent .
Forty percent of Americans have less than $ 400 in liquid cash saved for an emergency .
You think they are going to spend ?

"The vast majority of people laid off this spring assumed they’d be back at their jobs fairly soon. It is becoming more clear now that for many, that was wishful thinking." t.co/Wkfqv5MWPl
Intelligencer recently spoke with Roubini about our impending doom.
You predict that the coronavirus recession will be followed by a lackluster recovery and global depression. The financial markets ostensibly see a much brighter future. What are they missing and why?
Well, first of all, my prediction is not for 2020. It’s a prediction that these ten major forces will, by the middle of the coming decade, lead us into a “Greater Depression.” Markets, of course, have a shorter horizon. In the short run, I expect a U-shaped recovery while the markets seem to be pricing in a V-shape recovery.
Of course the markets are going higher because there’s a massive monetary stimulus, there’s a massive fiscal stimulus. People expect that the news about the contagion will improve, and that there’s going to be a vaccine at some point down the line. And there is an element “FOMO” [fear of missing out]; there are millions of new online accounts — unemployed people sitting at home doing day-trading — and they’re essentially playing the market based on pure sentiment. My view is that there’s going to be a meaningful correction once people realize this is going to be a U-shaped recovery. If you listen carefully to what Fed officials are saying — or even what JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are saying — initially they were all in the V camp, but now they’re all saying, well, maybe it’s going to be more of a U. The consensus is moving in a different direction.
Your prediction of a weak recovery seems predicated on there being a persistent shortfall in consumer demand due to income lost during the pandemic. A bullish investor might counter that the Cares Act has left the bulk of laid-off workers with as much — if not more — income than they had been earning at their former jobs. Meanwhile, white-collar workers who’ve remained employed are typically earning as much as they used to, but spending far less. Together, this might augur a surge in post-pandemic spending that powers a V-shaped recovery. What does the bullish story get wrong?
Yes, there are unemployment benefits. And some unemployed people may be making more money than when they were working. But those unemployment benefits are going to run out in July. The consensus says the unemployment rate is headed to 25 percent. Maybe we get lucky. Maybe there’s an early recovery, and it only goes to 16 percent. Either way, tons of people are going to lose unemployment benefits in July. And if they’re rehired, it’s not going to be like before — formal employment, full benefits. You want to come back to work at my restaurant? Tough luck. I can hire you only on an hourly basis with no benefits and a low wage. That’s what every business is going to be offering. Meanwhile, many, many people are going to be without jobs of any kind. It took us ten years — between 2009 and 2019 — to create 22 million jobs. And we’ve lost 30 million jobs in two months.
So when unemployment benefits expire, lots of people aren’t going to have any income. Those who do get jobs are going to work under more miserable conditions than before. And people, even middle-income people, given the shock that has just occurred — which could happen again in the summer, could happen again in the winter — you are going to want more precautionary savings. You are going to cut back on discretionary spending. Your credit score is going to be worse. Are you going to go buy a home? Are you gonna buy a car? Are you going to dine out? In Germany and China, they already reopened all the stores a month ago. You look at any survey, the restaurants are totally empty. Almost nobody’s buying anything. Everybody’s worried and cautious. And this is in Germany, where unemployment is up by only one percent. Forty percent of Americans have less than $400 in liquid cash saved for an emergency. You think they are going to spend?


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Why Stocks Are Up But The Economy’s Down

Compare these two indexes that track the same index .
One uses market cap , the other is equally weighted .
Summary : Composition of stocks market changed after initial market drop .
Those companies that do well in pandemic are already large and move the whole ( market cap weighted ) index up .
Many other companies stay down and can go even bankcrupt .
( And they say that passive indexing removes infomation from the market .
It ’ s not doing it yet ) This insight is provided to you by NPR www.npr.org/2020/05/22/861331371/stocks-are-up-but-the-economys-down … when the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shut down in late February , the stock market tanked for the next month .
By late March , it was down 34 % .
But then , even though the economy has kept getting worse and worse , the U.S. stock market has started to recover .
It rebounded in a big way so that now it is only down 13 % from where it was in February before the recession started .
… And meanwhile , millions of workers keep losing their jobs each week .
… the stock market did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening , and it reprised really quickly .
And then all of a sudden , it became a battle of the composition of the stock markets .
… the whole stock market collapsed when coronavirus started hurting the U.S. economy , but then some stocks of companies started recovering even as others continued to struggle .
… it just so happens that the companies that are the best positioned for the environment we find ourselves in and what we will find ourselves in over the next six months to a year , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already be the largest weighted components of the indices .
… companies like Facebook , Amazon , Microsoft , Apple and Alphabet , a.k.a .
Google – are also some of the most valuable companies in the country .
In fact , just those five companies make up about 20 % of the entire S & P 500 … when those five stocks do well , they can help pull up the whole index .
… First markets dropped in panic sell .
Then companies who don ’ t suffer from the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Big tech companies happen to be already large part of market cap of SP500 , so they bring up the SP500 as a whole .
… aside from Amazon , which has almost a million workers , a lot of these companies don ’ t actually employ that many people .
Microsoft only has 144,000 workers .
Facebook has just 48,000 workers .
And this can partly explain why tens of millions of people can lose their jobs while the stock market keeps going up .
… not all companies are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fine , pulling up the stock market .
Others are struggling , possibly going bankrupt , laying off workers .

by ConfidenceFairy
Compare these two indexes that track the same index. One uses market cap, the other is equally weighted.
Summary: Composition of stocks market changed after initial market drop. Those companies that do well in pandemic are already large and move the whole (market cap weighted) index up. Many other companies stay down and can go even bankcrupt.
(And they say that passive indexing removes infomation from the market. It’s not doing it yet)
This insight is provided to you by NPR www.npr.org/2020/05/22/861331371/stocks-are-up-but-the-economys-down
… when the coronavirus pandemic started forcing the U.S. economy to shut down in late February, the stock market tanked for the next month. By late March, it was down 34%. But then, even though the economy has kept getting worse and worse, the U.S. stock market has started to recover. It rebounded in a big way so that now it is only down 13% from where it was in February before the recession started. … And meanwhile, millions of workers keep losing their jobs each week.
… the stock market did beat the real economy to what was happening, and it reprised really quickly. And then all of a sudden, it became a battle of the composition of the stock markets.
… the whole stock market collapsed when coronavirus started hurting the U.S. economy, but then some stocks of companies started recovering even as others continued to struggle.
… it just so happens that the companies that are the best positioned for the environment we find ourselves in and what we will find ourselves in over the next six months to a year, the companies that are best positioned happen to already be the largest weighted components of the indices.
… companies like Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet, a.k.a. Google – are also some of the most valuable companies in the country. In fact, just those five companies make up about 20% of the entire S&P 500 … when those five stocks do well, they can help pull up the whole index.
… First markets dropped in panic sell. Then companies who don’t suffer from the pandemic recovered and the composition of index changed. Big tech companies happen to be already large part of market cap of SP500, so they bring up the SP500 as a whole.
… aside from Amazon, which has almost a million workers, a lot of these companies don’t actually employ that many people. Microsoft only has 144,000 workers. Facebook has just 48,000 workers. And this can partly explain why tens of millions of people can lose their jobs while the stock market keeps going up.
… not all companies are the same. Some big ones are doing fine, pulling up the stock market. Others are struggling, possibly going bankrupt, laying off workers.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Conversations with Vegas hotels and other unpleasant news

I was in Vegas 10 times last year , personally I hate the city but I go for client meetings and conventions .
I ’ ve been calling and asking about capacity and availability of new bookings , pretending to be a tourist and the feedback from hotel concierge is this : first , hotels and casinos will function at 25 – 50 % capacity .
Buffets will likely not be open .
Shows are currently booking reservations and restaurants will be open .
Card tables will be open , high rollers are making heavy bookings right now .
Slots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you ’ ve ever been on a casino floor and smelled the smoke then you know the air circulation is poor , IE dividers wont help .
Second , I was advised to make my reservations now because bookings are coming in and they may actually run out of space .
Expect a normal ( not convention ) week crowd in June .
I ’ ve executed enterprise level sales for many years and know how to tell when I ’ m being sold vs when I ’ m gaining information and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales pressure and truth .
In my experience Vegas can be a playground for the wealthy , but it ’ s mostly a playground for the middle class and poor .
Specifically the folks who dont care about / believe in the virus .
I live in NYC , if people in the new England / tri-state area are going then so is covid 19 .
If people from middle america are going too then you can be sure that PPE rules will not be adhered to .
Keep in mind as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have now turned to the market instead of sports betting .
Thoughts ?
Short term calls ?
Long term puts ?
My guess is Vegas will be one of the first cities to close during the second wave and an early indication ( and by indication I mean red f*cking flag warning ) for the rest of the country .
The other unpleasant news – on a side note , I ’ m pretty heavily involved in the measures here in NYC to curb the virus at an executive level and things are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers for fall 2020 in NYC alone are in the millions – currently homless population of NYC is +/- 65k .
Anticipated monthly cost per state for homeless services come fall 2020 is $ 9BB per month per state or $ 450BB monthly nationwide .
I very much hope that the information I have on this is incorrect , but if it does get bleak how do we best capitalize ?

I was in Vegas 10 times last year, personally I hate the city but I go for client meetings and conventions. I’ve been calling and asking about capacity and availability of new bookings, pretending to be a tourist and the feedback from hotel concierge is this:
first, hotels and casinos will function at 25 – 50% capacity. Buffets will likely not be open. Shows are currently booking reservations and restaurants will be open. Card tables will be open, high rollers are making heavy bookings right now. Slots will be separated with plexiglass dividers. If you’ve ever been on a casino floor and smelled the smoke then you know the air circulation is poor, IE dividers wont help.
Second, I was advised to make my reservations now because bookings are coming in and they may actually run out of space. Expect a normal (not convention) week crowd in June. I’ve executed enterprise level sales for many years and know how to tell when I’m being sold vs when I’m gaining information and it’s a 50/50 mix if sales pressure and truth.
In my experience Vegas can be a playground for the wealthy, but it’s mostly a playground for the middle class and poor. Specifically the folks who dont care about / believe in the virus. I live in NYC, if people in the new England / tri-state area are going then so is covid 19. If people from middle america are going too then you can be sure that PPE rules will not be adhered to.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Keep in mind as well that these are the same gamblers who have now turned to the market instead of sports betting.
Thoughts? Short term calls? Long term puts? My guess is Vegas will be one of the first cities to close during the second wave and an early indication (and by indication I mean red f*cking flag warning) for the rest of the country.
The other unpleasant news – on a side note, I’m pretty heavily involved in the measures here in NYC to curb the virus at an executive level and things are pretty bad. Specifically the anticipated homeless numbers for fall 2020 in NYC alone are in the millions – currently homless population of NYC is +/- 65k. Anticipated monthly cost per state for homeless services come fall 2020 is $9BB per month per state or $450BB monthly nationwide. I very much hope that the information I have on this is incorrect, but if it does get bleak how do we best capitalize?


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--This is Swiss National Bank holdings. What’s not to like? Print and buy! Stock Market bubble? You be

This is Swiss National Bank holdings. What’s not to like? Print and buy! Stock Market bubble? You bet!!

If you got a Central Bank and can print your own money – you simply print fiat currencies , and @ @ @ @ @ .
This is Swiss National Bank holdings .
What 's not to like ?
Print @ @ @ @ @ bubble ?
You bet !
!
pic.twitter.com/0lC4wiCDRG The bubbles – tech stocks , housing , @ @ @ @ @ as rates are pushed lower and lower .
The end game is when people lose @ @ @ @ @ keep fueling these bubbles .
Centrals banks do n't have wealth , they have a @ @ @ @

If you got a Central Bank and can print your own money – you simply print fiat currencies, and buy shares in real companies. This is Swiss National Bank holdings. What's not to like? Print and buy! Stock Market bubble? You bet!! pic.twitter.com/0lC4wiCDRG
The bubbles – tech stocks, housing, everything – keep getting bigger as rates are pushed lower and lower. The end game is when people lose confidence with the currencies that keep fueling these bubbles.
Centrals banks don't have wealth, they have a printing press. pic.twitter.com/SNLq5913rJ
— Peter Schmidt (The 92ers) (@The92ers) May 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Look Out Geroge Carlin – The UN wants you to stop using these 14 “offensive” words

The United Nations takes a page from 1984 with a list of offensive words According to the United Nations , @ @ @ @ @ is apparently offensive to some people .
So is “ husband ” .
Their reasoning @ @ @ @ @ gender-neutral .
So to “ create a more equal world , ” the UN has @ @ @ @ @ 14 words they want you to stop using… as well as the acceptable substitute .
@ @ @ @ @ , naturally , because it relies on the base “ man ” .
And anything @ @ @ @ @ a man is offensive and terrible in this new world of ours .

by Playaguy
The United Nations takes a page from 1984 with a list of offensive words
According to the United Nations, the word “wife” is apparently offensive to some people. So is “husband”.
Their reasoning? Those words are not gender-neutral. So to “create a more equal world,” the UN has published an initial list of 14 words they want you to stop using… as well as the acceptable substitute.
The word manpower is offensive, naturally, because it relies on the base “man”. And anything that has to do with a man is offensive and terrible in this new world of ours.
Mankind
Chairman
Congressman
Businessman
Policeman
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Landlord
Boyfriend
Girlfriend
Salesman
Manpower
Maiden name
Fireman
Husband
Wife
www.thedailybell.com/all-articles/news-analysis/the-un-wants-you-to-stop-using-these-14-offensive-words/


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Coronavirus circa January-February, 2020

The MSM ’ s take on covid-19 circa Jan-Feb , 2020 .

by ratioetlogicae
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The MSM’s take on covid-19 circa Jan-Feb, 2020.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--A Guide To Spotting “Bad Science”: How many of these have been followed re: Covid projections, testi

A Guide To Spotting “Bad Science”: How many of these have been followed re: Covid projections, testing, etc?

Thought this was an interesting one-sheet .
Has the CDC/WHO/etc used ANY of these systems to inform their study of @ @ @ @ @ which numbers you think they have either implemented or ignored .

by Win-N-Out
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Thought this was an interesting one-sheet. Has the CDC/WHO/etc used ANY of these systems to inform their study of Covid? Let me know which numbers you think they have either implemented or ignored.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Central Banks Are Destroying What Was Left Of Free Markets

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via The Mises Institute , President Reagan memorably said that the nine words you don ’ t want to hear are “ I ’ m from the government , and I ’ m here to help.
” Governments in all the major jurisdictions are now making good on that unwanted promise and are taking responsibility for everything from our shoulders .
Those receiving subsidies and loan guarantees are no doubt grateful , though they probably see it as the government ’ s duty and their right .
But someone has to pay for it .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through taxes meant that the haves were taxed to give financial support to the have-nots , at least that was the story .
Today , through monetary debasement nearly everyone benefits from monetary redistribution .
This is not a costless exercise .
Governments are no longer robbing Peter to pay Paul .
They are robbing Peter to pay Peter as well .
You would think this is widely understood , but the Peters are so distracted by the apparent benefits they might or might not get that they don ’ t see the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ printing money is not just the marginal source of financing for excess government spending , but that it has now become mainstream .
There is almost a total absence in the established media of any commentary on the consequences of monetary inflation , and in a cry for more we even have financial experts warning us of a deflationary collapse and the need for the Fed to introduce negative interest rates to stave off deflation .
Yes , there are deflationary forces , because banks wish to reduce their loan exposure at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be sure that central banks and their political masters will do everything they can to counter the trend of contracting bank credit by increasing base money .
There can only be one outcome : the debasement and eventual destruction of fiat currencies .
There is an aspect of the destruction brought about by monetary policy which is almost never considered by policymakers , and that is how it distorts the allocation of capital and leads to its misallocation .
In free markets , capital is scarce and must be used to greatest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ properly served and the entrepreneur is to maximize his profits .
Capital comes in several forms and encompasses every aspect of production : principally an establishment , machinery , labor , semimanufactured goods and commodities to be processed , and money .
An establishment , such as a factory or offices , and the availability of labor are relatively fixed in their capacity .
Depending on their deployment and capacity they produce a limited amount of goods .
It is just one form of capital , money and credit , which central banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and which in its unbacked form is infinitely flexible .
Consequently , attempts to stimulate production by monetary means still run into the capacity constraints of the other forms of capital .
Monetary policy has been increasingly used to manipulate capital allocation since the early days of the Great Depression .
The effect has varied , but it has generally come up against the constraints of the other forms of capital .
Where there is excess labour , it takes time to retrain it with the specialized skills required , a process hampered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but in reality resisting the reallocation of labor resources .
Government control over planning and increasingly stifling regulations , again putting a brake on change , mean that changes and additions to the use of establishments have lengthened the time before entrepreneurial investment is rewarded with profits .
Government intervention has also discouraged the withdrawal of monetary capital from unprofitable deployment , or malinvestments , lengthening recessions needlessly .
When the advanced nations had strong industrial cores , the periodic expansions of credit and their subsequent sudden contractions led to observable booms and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production of labor-intensive consumer goods dominated production overall .
There have been two further developments .
There then commenced a quarter-century of expansion of international trade replacing much of the domestic production of goods in the US , the UK , and Europe .
It was these events that denuded America of its manufacturing , not unfair competition as President Trump has alleged , and Germany ’ s retention of manufactures proves this .
But the effect has been to radically alter how we should interpret the effects of monetary expansion on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hayekian triangles and the like .
Business cycle research had assumed a capitalistic structure of savers saving and thereby making monetary capital available to entrepreneurs .
Changes in the propensity to save sent contrary signals to businesses about the propensity to consume , which caused them to alter their production plans .
Based on the ratio between consumer spending and savings , this analytic model has been corrupted by the state and its licensed banks by replacing savers with former savers now no longer saving , and even borrowing to consume .
Today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for business development are hidden through financial intermediation by venture capital funds , quasi-government funds , and others .
Being mandatory , pension funds continue to invest savings , but their beneficiaries have abandoned voluntary saving and run up debts , so even pension funds are not entirely free of monetary inflation .
Insurance funds alone appear to be comprised of genuine savings within an inflationary system .
Other than pension funds and insurance companies , Keynes ’ s wish for the euthanasia of the saver has been achieved .
He went on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ when we might aim in practice…at an increase in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce , so that the functionless investor will no longer receive a bonus.
” Now that everywhere bank deposits pay no interest , his wish has been granted , but Keynes did not foresee the unintended consequences of his inflationist policies which are now being visited upon us .
Among other errors , he failed to adequately account for the limitation of nonmonetary forms of capital , which leads to bottlenecks and rising prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consequences of neo-Keynesian policy failures are shortly to be exposed .
The checks and balances on the formation and deployment of monetary capital in the free market system have been completely destroyed and replaced by inflation .
So , where do you take us from here , Mr. Powell , Mr. Bailey , Ms. Lagarde , Mr. Kuroda ?
We can now say that America , the nation responsible for the world ’ s reserve currency , has encouraged policies which have turned its economy from being a producer of goods with supporting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ wealth into little more than a financial casino .
The virtues of saving and thrift have been replaced by profligate spending funded by debt .
Unprofitable businesses are being supported until the hoped-for return of easier times , which are now gone .
Cash and bank deposits ( checking accounts and savings deposits ) are created almost entirely by inflation and currently total $ 15.2 trillion in the US , while total commercial bank capital is a little under $ 2 trillion .
This tells us crudely that the $ 13 trillion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to bank credit inflation .
Increasing proportions of those customers are financial corporations and foreign entities , and not consumers maintaining cash and savings balances .
On the other side of bank balance sheets is consumer debt , mostly off balance sheet , but ultimately funded on balance sheet .
Excluding mortgages , the total consumer debt , comprising credit card , auto , and student debt , was $ 3.86 trillion in mid-2019 , amounting to an average debt of $ 27,571 per household , confirming the extent to which consumer debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , bank balance sheets are far larger than just the sum of cash and bank deposits , giving them a leverage of over ten times their equity .
Bankers will be very nervous of the current economic situation , aware that loan and other losses of only 10 percent wipe out their capital .
Meanwhile , their corporate customers are either shut down , which means that most of their expenses continue while they have no income , or they are suffering payment disruptions in their supply chains .
In short , bank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Effectively , the whole banking system is underwater at the same time that the Fed is extolling them to join with it in rescuing the economy by expanding their balance sheets even more .
The sums involved in supply chains are considerably larger than the US ’ s GDP .
Onshore , it is a substantial part of the nation ’ s gross output , which captures supply chain payments at roughly $ 38 trillion .
Overseas , there is a further mammoth figure feeding into the dollar supply chain , taking the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion .
The Fed is backstopping the foreign element through currency swaps and the domestic element mainly through the commercial banking system .
And it is indirectly funding government attempts to support consumers who are in the hole for that $ 27,571 on average per household .
In short , the Fed is committed to rescuing all business from the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression and , probably greater than that , to funding the US government ’ s rocketing budget deficits and funding the maintenance of domestic consumption directly or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pumping financial markets to achieve these objectives and preserve the illusion of national wealth .
Clearly , we stand on the threshold of an unprecedented monetary expansion .
Part of it will be , John Law–style , to ensure that inflated prices for US Treasurys are maintained .
At current interest rates , debt servicing was already costing the US government 40 percent of what was expected to be this year ’ s government deficit .
That bill will now rise beyond control even without bond yields rising .
Assistance is also being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Blackrock has been deputed to channel the Fed ’ s money-printed investment through ETFs ( exchange-traded funds ) specializing in this market .
So not only is the Fed underwriting the rapidly expanding US Treasury market , but it is underwriting commercial dollar debt as well .
In late 1929 , a rally in the stock market was prolonged by a similar stimulus , with banks committed to buying stocks and the Fed injecting $ 100 million in liquidity into markets by buying government securities .
Interest rates were cut .
And when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Dow declined , losing 89 percent of its value from September 1929 .
Today , similar attempts to rescue economies and financial markets by monetary expansion are common to all major central banks , with the possible exception of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) , which faces the unexpected obstacle of a challenge by the German Federal Constitutional Court claiming primacy in these matters .
There is therefore an added risk that the global inflation scheme will unravel in Europe , which would rapidly lead to funding and banking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Doubtless , any financial contagion will require yet more money printing by the other major central banks to ensure that there are no bank failures in their domains .
So far , few commentators have grasped the implications of what amounts to the total nationalization of the American economy by monetary means .
They have only witnessed the start of it , with the Fed ’ s balance sheet reflecting the earliest stages of the new inflation which has seen its balance sheet increase by 61 percent so far this year .
Not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything , but it will also have to compensate for contracting bank credit , which we know stands at about $ 18 trillion .
The Fed must be assuming that the banks will cooperate and pass on the required liquidity to save the economy .
Besides the monetary and operational hurdles such a policy faces , it can not expect the banks to want responsibility for the management of businesses that without this funding would not exist .
The Fed , or some other government agency , then has to decide on one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , withdrawing support , or taking responsibility for business activities .
This last option involves full nationalization .
We must not be seduced into thinking that this is an outcome that can work .
The nationalization of failing banks and their eventual privatization is not a good precedent for wider nationalization , because a bank does not require the entrepreneurial flair to estimate future consumer demand and to undertake the economic calculations to provide for it .
The state taking over business activities fails for this reason , as demonstrated by the collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the China of Mao Zedong .
That leaves a stark choice between indefinite monetary support or pulling the rug from under failing businesses .
There are no prizes for guessing that pulling rugs will be strongly resisted .
Therefore , government support for failing businesses is set to continue indefinitely .
At some stage , the dawning realization that central banks and their governments are steering into this economic cul-de-sac will undermine government bond yields , despite attempts by central banks to stop it , even if the deteriorating outlook for fiat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government finances first .
Earlier in the descent into the socialization of money , nations had opportunities to change course .
Unfortunately , they had neither the knowledge nor the guts to divine and implement a return to free markets and sound money .
Those opportunities no longer exist , and there can be only one outcome : the total destruction of fiat currencies , accompanied by all the hardships that go with it .

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via The Mises Institute,
President Reagan memorably said that the nine words you don’t want to hear are “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.” Governments in all the major jurisdictions are now making good on that unwanted promise and are taking responsibility for everything from our shoulders.
Those receiving subsidies and loan guarantees are no doubt grateful, though they probably see it as the government’s duty and their right. But someone has to pay for it. In the past, the redistribution of wealth through taxes meant that the haves were taxed to give financial support to the have-nots, at least that was the story. Today, through monetary debasement nearly everyone benefits from monetary redistribution.
This is not a costless exercise. Governments are no longer robbing Peter to pay Paul. They are robbing Peter to pay Peter as well. You would think this is widely understood, but the Peters are so distracted by the apparent benefits they might or might not get that they don’t see the cost. They fail to appreciate that printing money is not just the marginal source of financing for excess government spending, but that it has now become mainstream.
There is almost a total absence in the established media of any commentary on the consequences of monetary inflation, and in a cry for more we even have financial experts warning us of a deflationary collapse and the need for the Fed to introduce negative interest rates to stave off deflation. Yes, there are deflationary forces, because banks wish to reduce their loan exposure at a time of increasing risk. But we can be sure that central banks and their political masters will do everything they can to counter the trend of contracting bank credit by increasing base money. There can only be one outcome: the debasement and eventual destruction of fiat currencies.
There is an aspect of the destruction brought about by monetary policy which is almost never considered by policymakers, and that is how it distorts the allocation of capital and leads to its misallocation. In free markets, capital is scarce and must be used to greatest effect if the consumer is to be properly served and the entrepreneur is to maximize his profits.
Capital comes in several forms and encompasses every aspect of production: principally an establishment, machinery, labor, semimanufactured goods and commodities to be processed, and money. An establishment, such as a factory or offices, and the availability of labor are relatively fixed in their capacity. Depending on their deployment and capacity they produce a limited amount of goods. It is just one form of capital, money and credit, which central banks and the banking system now provide, and which in its unbacked form is infinitely flexible. Consequently, attempts to stimulate production by monetary means still run into the capacity constraints of the other forms of capital.
Monetary policy has been increasingly used to manipulate capital allocation since the early days of the Great Depression. The effect has varied, but it has generally come up against the constraints of the other forms of capital. Where there is excess labour, it takes time to retrain it with the specialized skills required, a process hampered by trade unions ostensibly protecting their members but in reality resisting the reallocation of labor resources. Government control over planning and increasingly stifling regulations, again putting a brake on change, mean that changes and additions to the use of establishments have lengthened the time before entrepreneurial investment is rewarded with profits. Government intervention has also discouraged the withdrawal of monetary capital from unprofitable deployment, or malinvestments, lengthening recessions needlessly.
When the advanced nations had strong industrial cores, the periodic expansions of credit and their subsequent sudden contractions led to observable booms and busts in the classical sense, since production of labor-intensive consumer goods dominated production overall.
There have been two further developments.
The first was the abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, which led to a substantial rise in prices for commodities. The broad-based UN index of commodities rose from 33 to 157 during the decade, a rise of 376 percent. This input category of production capital compared unfavorably with US consumer price increases of 112 percent over the decade, the mismatch between these and other categories of capital allocation making economic calculation a fruitless exercise. The second development was the liberation of financial controls in the mid-eighties, London’s Big Bang and the repeal of America’s Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, allowing commercial banks to fully embrace and exploit investment banking activities. The banking cartel increasingly directed its ability to create credit toward purely financial activities mainly for their own books, thereby financing financial speculation while deemphasising bank credit expansion for production purposes for all but the larger corporations. Partly in response, the nineties saw businesses move production to low-cost centers in Southeast Asia, where all forms of production capital, with the exception of monetary capital, were significantly cheaper and more flexible.
There then commenced a quarter-century of expansion of international trade replacing much of the domestic production of goods in the US, the UK, and Europe. It was these events that denuded America of its manufacturing, not unfair competition as President Trump has alleged, and Germany’s retention of manufactures proves this. But the effect has been to radically alter how we should interpret the effects of monetary expansion on the US economy and others, compared with Hayekian triangles and the like.
Business cycle research had assumed a capitalistic structure of savers saving and thereby making monetary capital available to entrepreneurs. Changes in the propensity to save sent contrary signals to businesses about the propensity to consume, which caused them to alter their production plans. Based on the ratio between consumer spending and savings, this analytic model has been corrupted by the state and its licensed banks by replacing savers with former savers now no longer saving, and even borrowing to consume.
Today, the inflationary origins of investment funds for business development are hidden through financial intermediation by venture capital funds, quasi-government funds, and others. Being mandatory, pension funds continue to invest savings, but their beneficiaries have abandoned voluntary saving and run up debts, so even pension funds are not entirely free of monetary inflation. Insurance funds alone appear to be comprised of genuine savings within an inflationary system.
Other than pension funds and insurance companies, Keynes’s wish for the euthanasia of the saver has been achieved. He went on to suggest there would be a time “when we might aim in practice…at an increase in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce, so that the functionless investor will no longer receive a bonus.”
Now that everywhere bank deposits pay no interest, his wish has been granted, but Keynes did not foresee the unintended consequences of his inflationist policies which are now being visited upon us. Among other errors, he failed to adequately account for the limitation of nonmonetary forms of capital, which leads to bottlenecks and rising prices as monetary expansion proceeds.
The unintended consequences of neo-Keynesian policy failures are shortly to be exposed. The checks and balances on the formation and deployment of monetary capital in the free market system have been completely destroyed and replaced by inflation. So, where do you take us from here, Mr. Powell, Mr. Bailey, Ms. Lagarde, Mr. Kuroda?
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Taking Stock
We can now say that America, the nation responsible for the world’s reserve currency, has encouraged policies which have turned its economy from being a producer of goods with supporting services as the source of its citizens’ wealth into little more than a financial casino. The virtues of saving and thrift have been replaced by profligate spending funded by debt. Unprofitable businesses are being supported until the hoped-for return of easier times, which are now gone.
Cash and bank deposits (checking accounts and savings deposits) are created almost entirely by inflation and currently total $15.2 trillion in the US, while total commercial bank capital is a little under $2 trillion. This tells us crudely that the $13 trillion sitting in customer accounts can be attributed to bank credit inflation. Increasing proportions of those customers are financial corporations and foreign entities, and not consumers maintaining cash and savings balances.
On the other side of bank balance sheets is consumer debt, mostly off balance sheet, but ultimately funded on balance sheet. Excluding mortgages, the total consumer debt, comprising credit card, auto, and student debt, was $3.86 trillion in mid-2019, amounting to an average debt of $27,571 per household, confirming the extent to which consumer debt has replaced savings.3
At $20.5 trillion, bank balance sheets are far larger than just the sum of cash and bank deposits, giving them a leverage of over ten times their equity. Bankers will be very nervous of the current economic situation, aware that loan and other losses of only 10 percent wipe out their capital. Meanwhile, their corporate customers are either shut down, which means that most of their expenses continue while they have no income, or they are suffering payment disruptions in their supply chains. In short, bank loan books are staring at disaster. Effectively, the whole banking system is underwater at the same time that the Fed is extolling them to join with it in rescuing the economy by expanding their balance sheets even more.
The sums involved in supply chains are considerably larger than the US’s GDP. Onshore, it is a substantial part of the nation’s gross output, which captures supply chain payments at roughly $38 trillion. Overseas, there is a further mammoth figure feeding into the dollar supply chain, taking the total for America to perhaps $50 trillion. The Fed is backstopping the foreign element through currency swaps and the domestic element mainly through the commercial banking system. And it is indirectly funding government attempts to support consumers who are in the hole for that $27,571 on average per household.
In short, the Fed is committed to rescuing all business from the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression and, probably greater than that, to funding the US government’s rocketing budget deficits and funding the maintenance of domestic consumption directly or indirectly through the US Treasury, while pumping financial markets to achieve these objectives and preserve the illusion of national wealth.
Clearly, we stand on the threshold of an unprecedented monetary expansion. Part of it will be, John Law–style, to ensure that inflated prices for US Treasurys are maintained. At current interest rates, debt servicing was already costing the US government 40 percent of what was expected to be this year’s government deficit. That bill will now rise beyond control even without bond yields rising. Assistance is also being provided to the corporate debt market. Blackrock has been deputed to channel the Fed’s money-printed investment through ETFs (exchange-traded funds) specializing in this market. So not only is the Fed underwriting the rapidly expanding US Treasury market, but it is underwriting commercial dollar debt as well.
In late 1929, a rally in the stock market was prolonged by a similar stimulus, with banks committed to buying stocks and the Fed injecting $100 million in liquidity into markets by buying government securities. Interest rates were cut. And when these attempts at maintaining asset prices failed, the Dow declined, losing 89 percent of its value from September 1929.
Today, similar attempts to rescue economies and financial markets by monetary expansion are common to all major central banks, with the possible exception of the European Central Bank (ECB), which faces the unexpected obstacle of a challenge by the German Federal Constitutional Court claiming primacy in these matters. There is therefore an added risk that the global inflation scheme will unravel in Europe, which would rapidly lead to funding and banking crises for the spendthrift member states. Doubtless, any financial contagion will require yet more money printing by the other major central banks to ensure that there are no bank failures in their domains.
Whither the Exit?
So far, few commentators have grasped the implications of what amounts to the total nationalization of the American economy by monetary means. They have only witnessed the start of it, with the Fed’s balance sheet reflecting the earliest stages of the new inflation which has seen its balance sheet increase by 61 percent so far this year. Not only will the Fed battle to fund everything, but it will also have to compensate for contracting bank credit, which we know stands at about $18 trillion.
The Fed must be assuming that the banks will cooperate and pass on the required liquidity to save the economy. Besides the monetary and operational hurdles such a policy faces, it cannot expect the banks to want responsibility for the management of businesses that without this funding would not exist. The Fed, or some other government agency, then has to decide on one of three broad options: further support, withdrawing support, or taking responsibility for business activities. This last option involves full nationalization.
We must not be seduced into thinking that this is an outcome that can work. The nationalization of failing banks and their eventual privatization is not a good precedent for wider nationalization, because a bank does not require the entrepreneurial flair to estimate future consumer demand and to undertake the economic calculations to provide for it. The state taking over business activities fails for this reason, as demonstrated by the collapse of totalitarian states such as the USSR and the China of Mao Zedong.
That leaves a stark choice between indefinite monetary support or pulling the rug from under failing businesses. There are no prizes for guessing that pulling rugs will be strongly resisted. Therefore, government support for failing businesses is set to continue indefinitely.
At some stage, the dawning realization that central banks and their governments are steering into this economic cul-de-sac will undermine government bond yields, despite attempts by central banks to stop it, even if the deteriorating outlook for fiat currencies’ purchasing power does not destroy government finances first.
Earlier in the descent into the socialization of money, nations had opportunities to change course. Unfortunately, they had neither the knowledge nor the guts to divine and implement a return to free markets and sound money. Those opportunities no longer exist, and there can be only one outcome: the total destruction of fiat currencies, accompanied by all the hardships that go with it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--5,000 Chinese troops now occupy Indian territory

“ For the first time since the Kargil intrusions of 1999 , Indian territory is in the hands of foreign @ @ @ @ @ third week of April , more than 5,000 Chinese soldiers of the People ’ s @ @ @ @ @ have intruded into five points in Ladakh ”

“For the first time since the Kargil intrusions of 1999, Indian territory is in the hands of foreign soldiers. Starting in the third week of April, more than 5,000 Chinese soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have intruded into five points in Ladakh”
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"For the first time since the Kargil intrusions of 1999, Indian territory is in the hands of foreign soldiers. Starting in the third week of April, more than 5,000 Chinese soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have intruded into five points in Ladakh" t.co/G8k6Ww5oGw — Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 23, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--AN ABSOLUTELY MUST-SEE VIDEO — Top Ten: We’re Off “Team Corona-Phobia”

Del Bigtree has produced what is perhaps the best , most informative video regarding the COVID-19 reaction insanity .
Pushing @ @ @ @ @ other assorted bullshit , Bigtree presents FACTS and REAL SCIENCE to expose the propaganda-led stupidity @ @ @ @ @ world .
His Top Ten : 10 .
The Initial Model Was Dead Wrong 9 @ @ @ @ @ .
Nursing Home Neglect 7 .
Social Distancing Is Unscientific 6 .
Masks Are A @ @ @ @ @ Treatments 4 .
Doctors Screwed Up 3 .
The Vaccine Is STILL A Unicorn 2 @ @ @ @ @ Bad flu 1 .
The Cure Is Worse Than The Problem

Del Bigtree has produced what is perhaps the best, most informative video regarding the COVID-19 reaction insanity. Pushing away the fake news and other assorted bullshit, Bigtree presents FACTS and REAL SCIENCE to expose the propaganda-led stupidity gripping our nation and the world. His Top Ten:
10. The Initial Model Was Dead Wrong
9. The Lockdown Failed
8. Nursing Home Neglect
7. Social Distancing Is Unscientific
6. Masks Are A Joke
5. Blocked Effective Treatments
4. Doctors Screwed Up
3. The Vaccine Is STILL A Unicorn
2. Death Rate Mirrors A Bad flu
1. The Cure Is Worse Than The Problem
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h/t DS


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Trump tweets about the suspicious death of Joe Scarborough‘s intern

A lot of interest in this story about Psycho Joe Scarborough .
So a young marathon runner just happened to @ @ @ @ @ hit her head on his desk , & die ?
I would think there is @ @ @ @ @ story than that ?
An affair ?
What about the so-called investigator ?
Read story @

A lot of interest in this story about Psycho Joe Scarborough. So a young marathon runner just happened to faint in his office, hit her head on his desk, & die? I would think there is a lot more to this story than that? An affair? What about the so-called investigator? Read story!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A lot of interest in this story about Psycho Joe Scarborough. So a young marathon runner just happened to faint in his office, hit her head on his desk, & die? I would think there is a lot more to this story than that? An affair? What about the so-called investigator? Read story! t.co/CjBXBXxoNS — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 24, 2020
h/t LSR


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-24--Americans households are about to get hit by a devastating wave of bankruptcies

Unemployment is soaring due to the coronavirus pandemic and a wave of consumer bankruptcies is almost guaranteed to follow .
But there are ways that lenders and Congress can help lessen the pain from this bankruptcy wave .
Sushrut Jain is an economist at Edgeworth Analytics .
Dr. George Korenko is an economic expert witness at Edgeworth Analytics .
The US has been hit by an unprecedented wave of unemployment since the start of the coronavirus pandemic .
Nearly 39 million Americans have filed new unemployment claims and the unemployment rate has hit a staggering 14.7 % .
This crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over into a second wave of consumer bankruptcy filings , with fewer than 40,000 reported in April – a ten-year low for the month .
While businesses and individuals can declare bankruptcy , individuals make up the vast majority of filings .
Due to the high correlation between unemployment and consumer bankruptcy , a surge of filings can be expected in the coming weeks .
This will likely result in the contraction of the credit industry , with the most in-need borrowers potentially finding it more difficult to access credit .
The magnitude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be determined by three factors : the amount US households owe divided by the amount they earn , the impact of Congress ’ attempts to rescue the economy , and what creditors do from here .
Two indicators of bankruptcy Studies reveal Americans typically file for bankruptcy after costly economic events , like job loss , divorce , illness , or injury .
Depending on the study , between 33 % and 66 % of bankruptcy filers cite job loss as the cause .
Per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a near-perfect correlation between the quarterly individual bankruptcy and unemployment rates since 2006 .
Considering the current drastic unemployment spike , a bankruptcy surge is almost certain to follow .
A high aggregate household debt-to-income ratio can also indicate future bankruptcy filings .
Household debt can include mortgages , credit cards , and auto and student loans .
In 2007 , just before the Great Recession , the aggregate household debt-to-income ratio peaked at 1.24 , meaning on average , households had nearly 25 % more debt than income .
Today , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which should ease the severity of the bankruptcy crisis .

Unemployment is soaring due to the coronavirus pandemic and a wave of consumer bankruptcies is almost guaranteed to follow.
But there are ways that lenders and Congress can help lessen the pain from this bankruptcy wave.
Sushrut Jain is an economist at Edgeworth Analytics. Dr. George Korenko is an economic expert witness at Edgeworth Analytics.
The US has been hit by an unprecedented wave of unemployment since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Nearly 39 million Americans have filed new unemployment claims and the unemployment rate has hit a staggering 14.7%.
This crisis, however, has yet to roll over into a second wave of consumer bankruptcy filings, with fewer than 40,000 reported in April – a ten-year low for the month.
While businesses and individuals can declare bankruptcy, individuals make up the vast majority of filings. Due to the high correlation between unemployment and consumer bankruptcy, a surge of filings can be expected in the coming weeks.
This will likely result in the contraction of the credit industry, with the most in-need borrowers potentially finding it more difficult to access credit. The magnitude of this bankruptcy wave, however, will be determined by three factors: the amount US households owe divided by the amount they earn, the impact of Congress’ attempts to rescue the economy, and what creditors do from here.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Two indicators of bankruptcy
Studies reveal Americans typically file for bankruptcy after costly economic events, like job loss, divorce, illness, or injury. Depending on the study, between 33% and 66% of bankruptcy filers cite job loss as the cause.
Per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and American Bankruptcy Institute, there is a near-perfect correlation between the quarterly individual bankruptcy and unemployment rates since 2006. Considering the current drastic unemployment spike, a bankruptcy surge is almost certain to follow.
A high aggregate household debt-to-income ratio can also indicate future bankruptcy filings. Household debt can include mortgages, credit cards, and auto and student loans. In 2007, just before the Great Recession, the aggregate household debt-to-income ratio peaked at 1.24, meaning on average, households had nearly 25%more debt than income. Today, that number is a much healthier 0.95, which should ease the severity of the bankruptcy crisis.
www.businessinsider.com/american-households-about-to-get-hit-by-wave-of-bankruptcies-2020-5