investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--U.S. agrees to buy 100 million doses of experimental coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer in $2 billion d

U.S. agrees to buy 100 million doses of experimental coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer in $2 billion deal

( Natural News ) It has just come out that the United States Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS ) along with the Department of Defense ( DOD ) has secured a deal with pharmaceutical giant Pfizer to purchase $ 2 billion worth of experimental Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccines using taxpayer money .
Even though the vaccine has yet to even be fully developed and properly safety tested , the federal government has apparently decided that it wants in on the action early , with plans to start administering the jab to Americans once it becomes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ German biotech firm BioNtech , Pfizer , which received “ fast track ” approval from the government for this new vaccine despite the company ’ s well-documented history of human rights abuses , recently released the results of an early-stage trial alleging that the jab is “ safe for human consumption.
” “ The virus remains on track to begin anticipated Phase 2B/3 safety and efficacy trial later in July , ” reports Zero Hedge .
“ The U.S. government has pledged $ 1.95 billion for an initial order of 100 million doses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tax dollars to buy coronavirus vaccines , the government then plans to jab you for “ free ” Once the jab is granted regulatory approval , which already appears to be a shoe-in despite no solid evidence that it even works , the federal government has already procured an add-on deal that will allow it to purchase another 500 million doses of the vaccine for mass distribution .
After these billions upon billions of tax dollars are spent buying up all these jabs , daddy government then plans to jab all Americans for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them , right ?
In conjunction with the Trump administration ’ s “ Operation Warp Speed ” program , upwards of 300 million doses – or nearly one dose for every American – of some combination of experimental Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccines currently under development by Big Pharma will supposedly be ready for distribution by January .
Keep in mind that the U.S. government has already spent more than $ 2 billion on other Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccines being developed by drug giants Moderna and Johnson & Johnson ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments around the world are drafting similar deals with Big Pharma to purchase their portions of the vaccine pie .
One candidate being developed by the University of Oxford in partnership with AstraZeneca is slated to be purchased and distributed in the United Kingdom , for instance .
The U.K. has also reportedly purchased millions of doses of other Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccines from BioNtech , as well as from Valneva , a drug company based out of France , which is said to be “ less advanced in clinical development.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be doing , the U.K. is buying up swaths of different Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccines in the hopes that maybe one will work – though nobody really knows for sure , as it is all just a big guessing game at this point .
“ We initially talked to the government about going up to 12 vaccines but it ’ s more likely to be around eight , at least initially , ” admitted Kate Bingham , head of the British government ’ s “ Vaccine Taskforce.
” “ That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ portfolio , ” she added , likening Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) jabs to shares held in the stock market .
While these new vaccines are supposedly not going to be “ mandatory , ” at least at the federal level , according to President Trump , the expectation among many is that they will be compulsory for people who wish to keep working , going to school , traveling , and simply being part of society .
If you are interested in learning more about the dangers and ineffectiveness of vaccines , @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by: Ethan Huff
(Natural News) It has just come out that the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) along with the Department of Defense (DOD) has secured a deal with pharmaceutical giant Pfizer to purchase $2 billion worth of experimental Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines using taxpayer money.
Even though the vaccine has yet to even be fully developed and properly safety tested, the federal government has apparently decided that it wants in on the action early, with plans to start administering the jab to Americans once it becomes commercially available.
In conjunction with the German biotech firm BioNtech, Pfizer, which received “fast track” approval from the government for this new vaccine despite the company’s well-documented history of human rights abuses, recently released the results of an early-stage trial alleging that the jab is “safe for human consumption.”
“The virus remains on track to begin anticipated Phase 2B/3 safety and efficacy trial later in July,” reports Zero Hedge. “The U.S. government has pledged $1.95 billion for an initial order of 100 million doses of the vaccine.”
After spending your tax dollars to buy coronavirus vaccines, the government then plans to jab you for “free”
Once the jab is granted regulatory approval, which already appears to be a shoe-in despite no solid evidence that it even works, the federal government has already procured an add-on deal that will allow it to purchase another 500 million doses of the vaccine for mass distribution.
After these billions upon billions of tax dollars are spent buying up all these jabs, daddy government then plans to jab all Americans for “free” – how kind of them, right?
In conjunction with the Trump administration’s “Operation Warp Speed” program, upwards of 300 million doses – or nearly one dose for every American – of some combination of experimental Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines currently under development by Big Pharma will supposedly be ready for distribution by January.
Keep in mind that the U.S. government has already spent more than $2 billion on other Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines being developed by drug giants Moderna and Johnson & Johnson (J&J).
Numerous other governments around the world are drafting similar deals with Big Pharma to purchase their portions of the vaccine pie. One candidate being developed by the University of Oxford in partnership with AstraZeneca is slated to be purchased and distributed in the United Kingdom, for instance.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The U.K. has also reportedly purchased millions of doses of other Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines from BioNtech, as well as from Valneva, a drug company based out of France, which is said to be “less advanced in clinical development.”
Similar to what the U.S. appears to be doing, the U.K. is buying up swaths of different Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines in the hopes that maybe one will work – though nobody really knows for sure, as it is all just a big guessing game at this point.
“We initially talked to the government about going up to 12 vaccines but it’s more likely to be around eight, at least initially,” admitted Kate Bingham, head of the British government’s “Vaccine Taskforce.”
“That would give us a broad and diverse portfolio,” she added, likening Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) jabs to shares held in the stock market.
While these new vaccines are supposedly not going to be “mandatory,” at least at the federal level, according to President Trump, the expectation among many is that they will be compulsory for people who wish to keep working, going to school, traveling, and simply being part of society.
If you are interested in learning more about the dangers and ineffectiveness of vaccines, be sure to check out Vaccines.news.
Sources for this article include:
ZeroHedge.com
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--The Numbers Tell Us That The ‘Economic Recovery’ Is Dead And Businesses Are Failing At A Staggering

The Numbers Tell Us That The ‘Economic Recovery’ Is Dead And Businesses Are Failing At A Staggering Pace

Even though economic conditions were absolutely awful , during the month of June the mainstream media kept insisting that the U.S. economy was “ recovering ” and the stock market kept surging on every hint of good news .
But now the “ economic recovery ” narrative is completely dead , because the numbers clearly show that the U.S. economy is rapidly moving in the wrong direction .
On Thursday , the Labor Department announced that another 1.416 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week .
Prior to this year , the all-time record for a single @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are talking about a level of unemployment that is absolutely catastrophic .
But what is really alarming many analysts is that the number for last week was quite a bit higher than the number for the week before .
Many states are rolling out new restrictions as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to surge , and this is having a huge impact on economic activity .
For months I have been warning that fear of COVID-19 would prevent economic activity from returning to normal levels for the foreseeable future , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Overall , more than 52 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits over the past 18 weeks , and that makes this the biggest spike in unemployment in U.S. history by a very wide margin .
In fact , this dwarfs all previous spikes by so much that the others are not even worth mentioning .
Of course it isn ’ t just the employment numbers that are depressingly bad .
According to Jefferies , in late June 19 percent of all U.S. small businesses were closed , but now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just think about that number for a minute .
Nearly a quarter of all small businesses in the entire country are closed .
And the really bad news is that many of them will never end up reopening .
At the beginning of the pandemic , I received a lot of criticism for stating that many of the small businesses that were shutting down at that time would never open again , but over the long-term the numbers have shown that I was correct .
In fact , Yelp says that a whopping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initially listed as “ temporarily closed ” on their site are now classified as permanently closed… Fear of COVID-19 is going to cause a large portion of the population to continue to avoid restaurants for as long as this pandemic persists , and it is becoming clear that it is likely to persist for a long time to come .
We are going to lose so many small and independent places to eat .
Many of the big corporate chains that have very deep pockets will survive , at least for a while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what small and independent restaurants mean to our communities .
Bars and clubs are being hit extremely hard as well .
According to Yelp , 44 percent of the bars and clubs on their site that were initially listed as “ temporarily closed ” have now been shut down on a permanent basis… Other sectors of the economy are doing relatively better , but the overall outlook for small businesses in America is exceedingly bleak .
In New York City , it is being projected that one-third of all small businesses will never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that number is hard to believe , but this is actually happening .
Our politicians want to encourage people “ to go back to work ” , but for millions upon millions of Americans the jobs that they once had are gone forever .
Air travel is another industry that is being absolutely devastated by this pandemic .
After a modest bounce in June , the number of air passengers is starting to fall again… All of the numbers that I have shared in this article tell us that we are in an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this economic downturn would be short-lived and that a “ V-shaped recovery ” would commence once the coronavirus lockdowns were lifted .
But instead a resurgence of cases has caused new restrictions to be implemented , and economic activity is slowing down again .
The bottom line is that all of us need to get prepared to weather a long-term economic storm that is going to be incredibly painful .
The last recession was bad , but it isn ’ t even worth comparing to the times that we are entering now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ upside down , and a lot of people are not going to be able to handle what comes next .

by Michael Snyder
Even though economic conditions were absolutely awful, during the month of June the mainstream media kept insisting that the U.S. economy was “recovering” and the stock market kept surging on every hint of good news. But now the “economic recovery” narrative is completely dead, because the numbers clearly show that the U.S. economy is rapidly moving in the wrong direction. On Thursday, the Labor Department announced that another 1.416 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week. Prior to this year, the all-time record for a single week was just 695,000, and so we are talking about a level of unemployment that is absolutely catastrophic. But what is really alarming many analysts is that the number for last week was quite a bit higher than the number for the week before. Many states are rolling out new restrictions as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to surge, and this is having a huge impact on economic activity. For months I have been warning that fear of COVID-19 would prevent economic activity from returning to normal levels for the foreseeable future, and that is precisely what has happened.
Overall, more than 52 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits over the past 18 weeks, and that makes this the biggest spike in unemployment in U.S. history by a very wide margin.
In fact, this dwarfs all previous spikes by so much that the others are not even worth mentioning.
Of course it isn’t just the employment numbers that are depressingly bad. According to Jefferies, in late June 19 percent of all U.S. small businesses were closed, but now that number has risen to 24.5 percent…
As of Sunday, 24.5% of small businesses in the United States were closed, according to Jefferies. That is worse than late June, when only 19% were closed. Jefferies pointed to “particular weakness in COVID hot spots” and noted that small business employment had dropped to levels unseen since the end of May.
Just think about that number for a minute.
Nearly a quarter of all small businesses in the entire country are closed.
And the really bad news is that many of them will never end up reopening.
At the beginning of the pandemic, I received a lot of criticism for stating that many of the small businesses that were shutting down at that time would never open again, but over the long-term the numbers have shown that I was correct.
In fact, Yelp says that a whopping 60 percent of the restaurants that were initially listed as “temporarily closed” on their site are now classified as permanently closed…
It’s tough out there for restaurants and other small businesses. Yelp’s Economic Average report out Wednesday shows exactly how tough: 60 percent of the 26,160 temporarily closed restaurants on the business review site as of July are now permanently shut. Temporary closures are dropping, and permanent shutdowns are increasing.
Fear of COVID-19 is going to cause a large portion of the population to continue to avoid restaurants for as long as this pandemic persists, and it is becoming clear that it is likely to persist for a long time to come.
We are going to lose so many small and independent places to eat. Many of the big corporate chains that have very deep pockets will survive, at least for a while, but there is simply no replacing what small and independent restaurants mean to our communities.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bars and clubs are being hit extremely hard as well. According to Yelp, 44 percent of the bars and clubs on their site that were initially listed as “temporarily closed” have now been shut down on a permanent basis…
Bars and clubs are also closing forever at high rates: 44 percent (as of July) of 5,454 temporarily shuttered bars and other nightlife establishments are shut for good.
Other sectors of the economy are doing relatively better, but the overall outlook for small businesses in America is exceedingly bleak.
In New York City, it is being projected that one-third of all small businesses will never be able to open again…
As many as 76,000 small businesses in New York City – a third of the 230,000 citywide – may never reopen after forced to close during the COVID-19 lockdown, business leaders have warned. The Partnership for New York City, a not-for-profit organization that connects business leaders with local government, predicted that 76,000 small businesses will never be able to reopen in a report produced by 14 consulting firms.
I know that number is hard to believe, but this is actually happening.
Our politicians want to encourage people “to go back to work”, but for millions upon millions of Americans the jobs that they once had are gone forever.
Air travel is another industry that is being absolutely devastated by this pandemic. After a modest bounce in June, the number of air passengers is starting to fall again…
The resurgence of coronavirus infections is derailing the travel industry’s modest recovery. The number of air passengers processed through TSA security lines fell during the week ended July 20, compared with the prior week, according to Bank of America. This metric is down more than 70% from a year ago. United (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC on Wednesday that the airline doesn’t “expect to get anywhere close to normal until there’s a vaccine that’s been widely distributed to a large portion of the population.”
All of the numbers that I have shared in this article tell us that we are in an economic depression.
Many had hoped that this economic downturn would be short-lived and that a “V-shaped recovery” would commence once the coronavirus lockdowns were lifted.
But instead a resurgence of cases has caused new restrictions to be implemented, and economic activity is slowing down again.
The bottom line is that all of us need to get prepared to weather a long-term economic storm that is going to be incredibly painful.
The last recession was bad, but it isn’t even worth comparing to the times that we are entering now. All of our lives are being turned upside down, and a lot of people are not going to be able to handle what comes next.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--Introducing the “Everything Bubble” Sentiment-o-Meter

Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01 , we can predict a remarkable reversal .
The “ Everything Bubble ” has been a sight to behold .
With central banks providing trillions to the big players and margin debt enabling small punters to leverage up , the hot money rotation has been a real merry-go-round as one asset and sector after another is ignited by a massive flood of money seeking a quick return .
Once the hot sector has been slingshot to absurd heights , the hot money abandons it in favor of whatever hasn ’ t been shot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new Tesla–or maybe it ’ s Beanie Babies pulled out of attics , or sand .
The sand index could be the next moonshot , who knows ?
There ’ s an interesting self-referential , self reinforcing dynamic in manic bubbles .
As everyone sees other “ regular folks ” scoring massive gains from doing nothing but buying what everyone else is buying , the temptation to join the orgy of easy money becomes irresistible .
This new money adds momentum to the hot-money rotation , accelerating the moves and the gains .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just keeps getting easier .
This feeds an irresistible compulsion to leverage up–to borrow money and throw it into the 100 % guaranteed-to-rise market .
Once debt has been maxxed out , then punters discover options and leveraged ETFs as avenues to increase the 100 % guaranteed gains .
To chart this self-reinforcing momentum in sentiment and hot money , I ’ ve prepared this “ Everything Bubble ” Bubble-o-Meter .
Clearly , we ’ re at the very top : there ’ s no fear except of missing out .
Buy the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with the proviso that the more you ” invest ” ( heh ) , the more you make , and the more leverage you take on , the greater your gains .
It ’ s worth recalling that the tsunami of central bank money–let ’ s call it $ 9 trillion–is less than 3 % of total global financial wealth which is well north of $ 300 trillion .
The core assumption of the “ Everything Bubble ” is that this 3 % of newly printed cash can push the $ 340 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heights of everything : higher debt , higher leverage , and higher valuations .
The notion that this is akin to pushing on a string does not compute in the “ Everything Bubble.
” Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01 , we can predict a remarkable reversal from mortgaging the house to chase the hot-money trade of the moment to securing a place in the soup kitchen line .
In the manic FOMO stage , no one ponders the idea that the mania could end rather more abruptly than expected ; they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their current bet .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01, we can predict a remarkable reversal.
The “Everything Bubble” has been a sight to behold. With central banks providing trillions to the big players and margin debt enabling small punters to leverage up, the hot money rotation has been a real merry-go-round as one asset and sector after another is ignited by a massive flood of money seeking a quick return.
Once the hot sector has been slingshot to absurd heights, the hot money abandons it in favor of whatever hasn’t been shot into orbit.
Bat guano is the new Tesla–or maybe it’s Beanie Babies pulled out of attics, or sand. The sand index could be the next moonshot, who knows?
There’s an interesting self-referential, self reinforcing dynamic in manic bubbles. As everyone sees other “regular folks” scoring massive gains from doing nothing but buying what everyone else is buying, the temptation to join the orgy of easy money becomes irresistible.
This new money adds momentum to the hot-money rotation, accelerating the moves and the gains. In other words, the easy money just keeps getting easier.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This feeds an irresistible compulsion to leverage up–to borrow money and throw it into the 100% guaranteed-to-rise market. Once debt has been maxxed out, then punters discover options and leveraged ETFs as avenues to increase the 100% guaranteed gains.
To chart this self-reinforcing momentum in sentiment and hot money, I’ve prepared this “Everything Bubble” Bubble-o-Meter. Clearly, we’re at the very top: there’s no fear except of missing out. Buy the dip has yielded 100% guaranteed returns, with the proviso that the more you”invest” (heh), the more you make, and the more leverage you take on, the greater your gains.
It’s worth recalling that the tsunami of central bank money–let’s call it $9 trillion–is less than 3% of total global financial wealth which is well north of $300 trillion. The core assumption of the “Everything Bubble” is that this 3% of newly printed cash can push the $340 trillion leviathan of global assets to new heights of everything: higher debt, higher leverage, and higher valuations.
The notion that this is akin to pushing on a string does not compute in the “Everything Bubble.”
Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01, we can predict a remarkable reversal from mortgaging the house to chase the hot-money trade of the moment to securing a place in the soup kitchen line. In the manic FOMO stage, no one ponders the idea that the mania could end rather more abruptly than expected; they only ponder how to increase the size of their current bet.
The soup kitchen line awaits.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--Many Americans See The Hand Of God At Work In Current Events

2020 has been an incredibly bizarre year up to this point , and this has many people wondering if the hand of God is at work .
And the worse things get , the more this sort of speculation will heat up .
When things get crazy , people search for answers , and that can be a good thing .
Because the truth is that during normal times most of us are way too self-absorbed and most of us spend far too little time thinking about the things that really matter .
2020 has really shaken up a large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we should hope that all of this shaking ultimately moves our society in a more positive direction .
Right now , COVID-19 is dominating the headlines day after day , and the debates that I have seen on social media platforms about this pandemic have often gotten quite heated .
I knew that many people had extremely passionate opinions about COVID-19 , but what I didn ’ t realize is that a large percentage of them are also convinced that God is somehow involved .
In fact , an Associated Press/NORC survey found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe that this pandemic is “ a sign from God ” … I was stunned to see a number that high .
The Bible does tell us that there will be “ pestilences ” in the last days , and it would have been very interesting to see how many respondents to that survey believe that this COVID-19 pandemic is one of those pestilences .
In any event , if this pandemic actually does inspire vast numbers of Americans to live better lives , that would definitely be a positive outcome .
Unfortunately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening .
Instead , surveys have shown that Americans are increasingly turning to drugs , alcohol and television during this pandemic , and a survey that was released just this week found that Bible reading in the United States dropped precipitously “ between January and June ” … Another thing that has many Americans speculating is the very unusual storm that hit New York City on Wednesday .
A massive thunderstorm sent wind gusts of up to 75 mph howling through the city , and at one point “ purple lightning bolts ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Could that lightning strike have some sort of spiritual significance ?
I certainly do not know .
But when video footage emerged of lightning hitting “ on or behind ” the Statue of Liberty , that fueled the speculation even more… In addition , a lightning bolt also hit the steeple of a church , and this caused a very dangerous fire… In normal times , perhaps a thunderstorm of this nature would be largely ignored .
But these are not normal times .
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the locust armies that have been absolutely devastating parts of Africa , the Middle East and Asia have now made their way to Europe .
Farms on the Italian island of Sardinia are now being ravaged by desert locusts , and one British news source is using the term “ biblical plague ” to describe what is happening… Over the past several months , I have written several articles about this very unusual plague and the impact that it is having on the global food supply .
Some of the swarms are as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the locusts descend upon a farm they can literally eat everything there in as little as 30 seconds .
Lastly , I wanted to mention a very close encounter that we will have with an asteroid on November 2nd .
Apparently , a rock known as “ 2018 VP1 ” is supposed to pass very close to our planet on that day… There ’ s a video on Youtube saying we are about to have another “ very-close encounter ” with an asteroid .
What the Jet Propulsion Lab in California calls “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in mind asteroids have been coming close or have hit our planet for millions of years , and many do daily .
The bulk of asteroids and debris in space as you may remember from science class get burned up in the atmosphere , caused by the friction from the air as objects hit the atmosphere going many thousands of miles per hour .
However , one Youtube video says an asteroid called “ 2018 VP1 “ , which is about 6 feet diameter will pass within about 300 miles of our planet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , some experts are saying this nothing to fear .
First off there ’ s the math , asteroid “ 2018 VP1 ” is projected to come 0.02 times the distance between the earth and the moon .
Given that the moon is 239,000 miles away , 0.02 equates to 4,780 miles .
Now your thinking that ’ s far off right ?
What ’ s the big deal ?
Well , when they compute this stuff through orbital mechanics , they use the center of the celestial body , in this case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7,917 miles across , and half that is 3,958 miles .
That is where the video correctly gets its 300-mile estimate from , or a drive from Metro Detroit to Sault Sainte Marie in the UP to put it in perspective .
The good news is that this asteroid is so small that it is not likely to cause any damage even if it enters our atmosphere .
But I have noticed that there is a tremendous amount of discussion about asteroids on social media lately , and scientists assure us that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a very large rock does slam into our planet .
A lot of people do not like to be reminded of such things , but realizing how dependent we are on God for every breath that we take leads to humility .
Sometimes we need something to shake us up so that we will turn back to Him .
It is so easy to lose sight of what really matters , and that is why we should be thankful for events that come along that cause us to step back and consider the @ @ @

by Michael Snyder
2020 has been an incredibly bizarre year up to this point, and this has many people wondering if the hand of God is at work. And the worse things get, the more this sort of speculation will heat up. When things get crazy, people search for answers, and that can be a good thing. Because the truth is that during normal times most of us are way too self-absorbed and most of us spend far too little time thinking about the things that really matter. 2020 has really shaken up a large portion of the U.S. population, and we should hope that all of this shaking ultimately moves our society in a more positive direction.
Right now, COVID-19 is dominating the headlines day after day, and the debates that I have seen on social media platforms about this pandemic have often gotten quite heated.
I knew that many people had extremely passionate opinions about COVID-19, but what I didn’t realize is that a large percentage of them are also convinced that God is somehow involved. In fact, an Associated Press/NORC survey found that 63 percent of all religious Americans believe that this pandemic is “a sign from God”…
Sixty-three percent of religious Americans say that the novel coronavirus pandemic is a sign from God, telling humanity to change its ways of living, according a new poll. The poll, which was conducted by the Associated Press/NORC, surveyed 1,002 U.S. adults who say they believe in God.
I was stunned to see a number that high. The Bible does tell us that there will be “pestilences” in the last days, and it would have been very interesting to see how many respondents to that survey believe that this COVID-19 pandemic is one of those pestilences.
In any event, if this pandemic actually does inspire vast numbers of Americans to live better lives, that would definitely be a positive outcome.
Unfortunately, that does not appear to be happening. Instead, surveys have shown that Americans are increasingly turning to drugs, alcohol and television during this pandemic, and a survey that was released just this week found that Bible reading in the United States dropped precipitously “between January and June”…
The number of American adults the American Bible Society considers “Scripture engaged” based on how frequently they read Scripture and its impact on their relationships and choices dropped significantly from 28% to 22.7% between January and June, according to additional data collected by the organization in June.
Another thing that has many Americans speculating is the very unusual storm that hit New York City on Wednesday. A massive thunderstorm sent wind gusts of up to 75 mph howling through the city, and at one point “purple lightning bolts” were photographed striking One World Trade Center…
Dramatic photos captured the moment purple lightning bolts struck the tip of One World Trade Center – while smaller bolts scattered across the sky in New York City. Huge bolts of lightning were also photographed hitting the middle of the Hudson River, near Lower Manhattan – making an eerie sight.
Could that lightning strike have some sort of spiritual significance?
I certainly do not know. But when video footage emerged of lightning hitting “on or behind” the Statue of Liberty, that fueled the speculation even more…
Video footage captured the moment lighting bolts struck on or behind Lady Liberty with dark clouds seen overhead. Mikey Cee, who took the 21-second video from Ellis Island and shared it to Twitter, wrote: “The best video I ever captured. #NewYork #WeatherChannel #NYC.”
In addition, a lightning bolt also hit the steeple of a church, and this caused a very dangerous fire…
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The FDNY responded to the fire at the Spirit and Truth Christian Church on Sutter Avenue just after 7:30 p.m. Crews worked hard to save the house of worship as flames raced up the front of the building, right beneath the steeple. Neighbors say the clap of thunder that preceded the fire was even more dramatic than the actual flames. Witnesses say the steeple took a direct hit from a lightning bolt.
In normal times, perhaps a thunderstorm of this nature would be largely ignored.
But these are not normal times.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, people are buzzing about the fact that the locust armies that have been absolutely devastating parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia have now made their way to Europe.
Farms on the Italian island of Sardinia are now being ravaged by desert locusts, and one British news source is using the term “biblical plague” to describe what is happening…
In a situation reminiscent of a biblical plague, the insects have stripped large areas of the island’s agricultural regions of crops, in what the World Bank has already been branded the most serious such invasion the world has faced in 70 years. The epicentre is formed by the municipalities of Orani, Ottana and Bolotana in the Tirso valley, with insects having arrived from the Middle East and Africa, where 23 countries have experienced similar problems.
Over the past several months, I have written several articles about this very unusual plague and the impact that it is having on the global food supply. Some of the swarms are as large as major cities, and when the locusts descend upon a farm they can literally eat everything there in as little as 30 seconds.
Lastly, I wanted to mention a very close encounter that we will have with an asteroid on November 2nd. Apparently, a rock known as “2018 VP1” is supposed to pass very close to our planet on that day…
There’s a video on Youtube saying we are about to have another “very-close encounter” with an asteroid. What the Jet Propulsion Lab in California calls “Near-Earth-Objects” or NEOs. Now keep in mind asteroids have been coming close or have hit our planet for millions of years, and many do daily. The bulk of asteroids and debris in space as you may remember from science class get burned up in the atmosphere, caused by the friction from the air as objects hit the atmosphere going many thousands of miles per hour. However, one Youtube video says an asteroid called “2018 VP1“, which is about 6 feet diameter will pass within about 300 miles of our planet on November 2, 2020. However, some experts are saying this nothing to fear. First off there’s the math, asteroid “2018 VP1” is projected to come 0.02 times the distance between the earth and the moon. Given that the moon is 239,000 miles away, 0.02 equates to 4,780 miles. Now your thinking that’s far off right? What’s the big deal? Well, when they compute this stuff through orbital mechanics, they use the center of the celestial body, in this case, the earth. The earth is 7,917 miles across, and half that is 3,958 miles. That is where the video correctly gets its 300-mile estimate from, or a drive from Metro Detroit to Sault Sainte Marie in the UP to put it in perspective.
The good news is that this asteroid is so small that it is not likely to cause any damage even if it enters our atmosphere.
But I have noticed that there is a tremendous amount of discussion about asteroids on social media lately, and scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a very large rock does slam into our planet.
A lot of people do not like to be reminded of such things, but realizing how dependent we are on God for every breath that we take leads to humility. Sometimes we need something to shake us up so that we will turn back to Him.
It is so easy to lose sight of what really matters, and that is why we should be thankful for events that come along that cause us to step back and consider the bigger picture.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--S&P 500 Is Inverse Of The Economy

S&P 500 Is Inverse Of The Economy

To be a great investor in all cycles , you need to be good at understanding businesses and macroeconomics .
This is a macro world and we are all just living in it .
Most major asset classes are being driven by one thing : negative real yields .
The S & P 500 is often accused of not following the economy .
In the prior cycle , sometimes stocks would rally on bad news because it meant more stimulus was coming .
This market is on a whole different level .
Investors take fiscal and monetary stimulus as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on bad economic news because the work from home stocks , the EV stocks , and the online shopping stocks do well .
Those stocks control the market .
You might be confused why EV stocks do well in this new world .
Look no further than Europe ’ s $ 2 trillion COVID-19 fiscal stimulus .
The EU committed 30 % of its recovery fund to address climate concerns .
Don ’ t let a good crisis go to waste .
A cyclical improvement would be a bad thing for the S @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weighted index .
It would cause real rates to rise .
The market is paradoxical in the sense that it expects unlimited Fed and fiscal support , but it also doesn ’ t expect higher rates or inflation .
If COVID-19 was to come under control , stimulus could support growth and inflation .
We ’ re not talking hyperinflation , but that ’ s not necessary to change this market dynamic .
Don ’ t think in such a binary fashion .
A historically moderate shift in rates can make a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other words , as rates have fallen , it has created an even bigger rise in multiples .
If growth stocks trade at a 2 % premium to the 10 year yield , when the 10 year yield is at 2.5 % , the free cash flow yield is 4.5 % .
When the 10 year yield falls below 1 % , the free cash flow yield is 3 % .
That change correlates with a 50 % rise in the multiple as the PE ratio goes from about 20 to about 30 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gets a higher free cash flow premium ( of 5 % ) , its multiple rises 25 % .
Low rates are great for growth stocks .
Growth trades at a premium when the economy isn ’ t growing .
Every single basis point of growth suddenly comes from market share gains because the economy is stagnant .
Negative real yields create an interesting environment where treasuries , precious metals , and growth stocks are rallying .
On Tuesday , even the VIX joined in the rally as everything seemed to levitate .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ P 500 in July is that no matter which sector does well , the index always manages to go up .
There have been violent sector rotations under the surface as value and growth seem to take turns going up .
Gold investors and tech investors are confused why their investments are going up .
If you don ’ t know why your asset is going up , you will not know when to sell .
Record negative real yields make gold ’ s 0 % yield suddenly not an issue .
Uncertainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably doesn ’ t hurt gold that the economy is so unpredictable .
Gold fell in March because of the liquidity crisis .
Gold actually doesn ’ t like inflation .
If these stimulus programs work and real interest rates rise , that could be a headwind for gold .
Tech investors are so focused on their firms ’ fundamentals , they miss the macro story .
Growth is in vogue because of low rates .
It always helps when a firm is doing well , but investors miss the context .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed ’ s stimulus .
They rally in spite of the stimulus , because if the Fed succeeded at getting growth , inflation , and rates higher , growth stocks would fall .
Commodities and banks would rally .
Another way of saying this is that economic growth is scarce , so what happens to assets that provide any growth in such an environment ?
They get bid up .
To be clear , stabilizing the economy helps every sector .
Nothing does well in a depression .
That ’ s why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off the March 23rd bottom .
In Joe Wiesenthal ’ s Twitter poll , 56.3 % of 3,705 voters said if the 10 year yield hit 5 % in 2025 , stocks would be higher .
Since 1960 , the average S & P 500 performance in a rising rate environment is 22 % , but the market has never relied on big tech growth companies this much .
The banks and cyclicals would do well with rising rates , but they are a minuscule part of the S & P 500 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative sentiment since in most 5 year periods , the S & P 500 rises .
The chart below shows the Russell 3000 growth ’ s forward PE versus the Russell 3000 value ’ s forward PE .
Growth stocks have relatively high forward PEs compared to value stocks on a historical basis .
The current level is slightly above where the red line starts to indicate a bubble in 1998 .
In “ Tirade of a Dinosaur ” in April 1999 by Robert G. Kirby , he states , “ The headlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know the future growth rate of earnings you have barely half the answer .
Knowing the growth rate of the price to earnings ratio is probably more important !
” He wrote a tirade about how euphoric sentiment was driving stock prices rather than earnings about 11 months before the bubble ended .
Everyone is trying to figure out how many people will leave the city and move to the suburbs because of COVID-19 and how long that trend will last .
As you can see from the chart below , almost 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the past 3 months named COVID-19 as the number one reason for doing so .
The virus resulted in the desire or need to change living conditions .
The housing market is very strong because of low rates and pent up demand .
As you can see , low rates were named by almost a quarter of recent buyers .
If you can work from home , there is less of a need to live in the city near your job .
This move to the suburbs correlates with millennials getting older @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suburbs with a family .
The impact COVID-19 has depends on how long the outbreak lasts and impacts our behavior .
The longer it goes on , the less desire there will be to live in the city .
Low real yields are moving all markets .
The recent massive switches in sector rotation aren ’ t showing up in the indexes .
They imply investors are deciding between betting on a cyclical recovery or staying with the FANG winners .
Gold is near its all time record high .
Buying gold isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s a bet on yields staying low ( maybe a bet on uncertainty ) .
Are people moving to the suburbs because of COVID-19 ?
It ’ s not a shock people said COVID-19 was important to their house buying because it ’ s basically impacting every decision we make .

by UPFINA
To be a great investor in all cycles, you need to be good at understanding businesses and macroeconomics. This is a macro world and we are all just living in it. Most major asset classes are being driven by one thing: negative real yields. The S&P 500 is often accused of not following the economy. In the prior cycle, sometimes stocks would rally on bad news because it meant more stimulus was coming. This market is on a whole different level. Investors take fiscal and monetary stimulus as a given. Instead, the market rallies on bad economic news because the work from home stocks, the EV stocks, and the online shopping stocks do well. Those stocks control the market. You might be confused why EV stocks do well in this new world. Look no further than Europe’s $2 trillion COVID-19 fiscal stimulus. The EU committed 30% of its recovery fund to address climate concerns. Don’t let a good crisis go to waste.
A cyclical improvement would be a bad thing for the S&P 500, a market cap weighted index. It would cause real rates to rise. The market is paradoxical in the sense that it expects unlimited Fed and fiscal support, but it also doesn’t expect higher rates or inflation. If COVID-19 was to come under control, stimulus could support growth and inflation. We’re not talking hyperinflation, but that’s not necessary to change this market dynamic. Don’t think in such a binary fashion.
A historically moderate shift in rates can make a huge difference. Convexity is important. In other words, as rates have fallen, it has created an even bigger rise in multiples. If growth stocks trade at a 2% premium to the 10 year yield, when the 10 year yield is at 2.5%, the free cash flow yield is 4.5%. When the 10 year yield falls below 1%, the free cash flow yield is 3%. That change correlates with a 50% rise in the multiple as the PE ratio goes from about 20 to about 30. In this case, if value gets a higher free cash flow premium (of 5%), its multiple rises 25%. Low rates are great for growth stocks. Growth trades at a premium when the economy isn’t growing. Every single basis point of growth suddenly comes from market share gains because the economy is stagnant.
Real Yields Are Negative
Negative real yields create an interesting environment where treasuries, precious metals, and growth stocks are rallying. On Tuesday, even the VIX joined in the rally as everything seemed to levitate. The unusual aspect of the S&P 500 in July is that no matter which sector does well, the index always manages to go up. There have been violent sector rotations under the surface as value and growth seem to take turns going up.
Another day, another strong rise in gold and silver, as shown by a pair of proxy ETFs: pic.twitter.com/lwAnjIvnKy — James Picerno (@jpicerno) July 22, 2020
Gold investors and tech investors are confused why their investments are going up. If you don’t know why your asset is going up, you will not know when to sell. Record negative real yields make gold’s 0% yield suddenly not an issue. Uncertainty is difficult to measure, but it probably doesn’t hurt gold that the economy is so unpredictable. Gold fell in March because of the liquidity crisis.
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Gold actually doesn’t like inflation. If these stimulus programs work and real interest rates rise, that could be a headwind for gold. Tech investors are so focused on their firms’ fundamentals, they miss the macro story. Growth is in vogue because of low rates. It always helps when a firm is doing well, but investors miss the context. These growth stocks are not rallying because of the Fed’s stimulus. They rally in spite of the stimulus, because if the Fed succeeded at getting growth, inflation, and rates higher, growth stocks would fall. Commodities and banks would rally. Another way of saying this is that economic growth is scarce, so what happens to assets that provide any growth in such an environment? They get bid up. To be clear, stabilizing the economy helps every sector. Nothing does well in a depression. That’s why assets were correlated in the initial rally off the March 23rd bottom.
🚨🚨 REAL YIELD ALERT 🚨🚨 The 10-year U.S. real yield just fell below it's all-time low closing level set back in December 2012. Now at -0.9275% pic.twitter.com/PquaJqunmc — Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) July 22, 2020
In Joe Wiesenthal’s Twitter poll, 56.3% of 3,705 voters said if the 10 year yield hit 5% in 2025, stocks would be higher. Since 1960, the average S&P 500 performance in a rising rate environment is 22%, but the market has never relied on big tech growth companies this much. The banks and cyclicals would do well with rising rates, but they are a minuscule part of the S&P 500. You can argue this poll is exhibiting negative sentiment since in most 5 year periods, the S&P 500 rises.
POLL: If a time traveler from the future comes and tells you that in the year 2025 the 10-year yields 5%, is the S&P 500 higher or lower than it is now? — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 22, 2020
The Growth Premium
The chart below shows the Russell 3000 growth’s forward PE versus the Russell 3000 value’s forward PE. Growth stocks have relatively high forward PEs compared to value stocks on a historical basis. The current level is slightly above where the red line starts to indicate a bubble in 1998. In “Tirade of a Dinosaur” in April 1999 by Robert G. Kirby, he states, “The headlines will ring out. If you only know the future growth rate of earnings you have barely half the answer. Knowing the growth rate of the price to earnings ratio is probably more important!” He wrote a tirade about how euphoric sentiment was driving stock prices rather than earnings about 11 months before the bubble ended.
Caveat on this is forward P/E right now is probably useless because the E's isn't likely reflective of where it'll be in the future pic.twitter.com/Y1AuwNgCxu — Jake (@EconomPic) July 22, 2020
COVID-19 Causes People To Move
Everyone is trying to figure out how many people will leave the city and move to the suburbs because of COVID-19 and how long that trend will last. As you can see from the chart below, almost 40% of people who bought a house in the past 3 months named COVID-19 as the number one reason for doing so. The virus resulted in the desire or need to change living conditions. The housing market is very strong because of low rates and pent up demand.
Social distancing straight into a new home… Small survey from JPM on new home buying. pic.twitter.com/pp0N5i8gZ5 — Victorious Cake (@victoriouscake) July 21, 2020
As you can see, low rates were named by almost a quarter of recent buyers. If you can work from home, there is less of a need to live in the city near your job. This move to the suburbs correlates with millennials getting older and wanting to settle down in the suburbs with a family. The impact COVID-19 has depends on how long the outbreak lasts and impacts our behavior. The longer it goes on, the less desire there will be to live in the city.
Conclusion
Low real yields are moving all markets. The recent massive switches in sector rotation aren’t showing up in the indexes. They imply investors are deciding between betting on a cyclical recovery or staying with the FANG winners. Gold is near its all time record high. Buying gold isn’t a bet on inflation. It’s a bet on yields staying low (maybe a bet on uncertainty). Are people moving to the suburbs because of COVID-19? It’s not a shock people said COVID-19 was important to their house buying because it’s basically impacting every decision we make.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--Did the Fed Just Unwittingly Light the Spark Towards 13% Inflation?

The Fed just announced a major shift in its approach to inflation , and the move is not getting nearly the attention that it deserves .
That is , of course , unless you don ’ t mind inflation moving higher than any other time in recent memory .
Writing for ThinkAdvisor , Tim Duy , senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the University of Oregon , explains the potential for the upcoming shift : The Fed has already come close to “ overheating ” the economy in the past , and just last year , started to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the pandemic , the “ official ” rate of inflation has cooled off a bit this year .
But now , it appears the Fed ’ s own Governor Lael Brainard sees inflation as unbalanced , with the only solution being to offset that imbalance and focus .
Here ’ s how the Fed is setting the stage for rising inflation again… Brainard made this fairly clear in recent commentary captured on Robert Wenzel ’ s Economic Policy Journal : Wenzel provided an analogy to illustrate the situation , writing : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the equivalent of the early 20th-century medical practice of prescribing smoking to treat asthma.
” You can see the official CPI inflation for the U.S. illustrated below , before much ( if any ) change in Fed policy has taken place : Between this May and June , inflation has already started to rise , with the potential for much more of an increase if the Fed lets it “ run hot ” again .
Along with the near-certainty for loosening monetary policy , the Fed could be devoting more of its focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ I don ’ t see any need to act any time soon until we see substantial movement in inflation to our 2 % target and ideally overshoot a bit , ” said Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to the Wall Street Journal .
In summary , the Fed seems to be suggesting it will counterbalance “ lower ” inflation by overshooting its 2 % inflation target .
Just how far the Fed overshoots is anybody ’ s guess .
One thing is likely… the Fed isn ’ t going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that hits the consumer in the pocketbook ( about 4 % currently ) while it plays around “ balancing ” the numbers .
Wenzel leaves us with this dire outlook : “ Three-percent inflation is very likely , possibly 5 % , but I can ’ t rule out 10 % or 13 % if the Fed really screws things up given their fatuous thinking about inflation and their overconfidence on how easy it will be to get price inflation under control once it starts to climb at a serious pace.
” Let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ horse ” can be put back into the barn , before 1980s-style hyperinflation starts becoming a reality .
Strange times like these require you to examine your situation .
Especially if inflation starts to climb at a serious rate .
Consider hedging your bets against inflation , including the possibility of diversifying your savings with precious metals like gold and silver .
Inflation might start going on the rise , but your buying power doesn ’ t have to shrink .

From Birch Gold Group
The Fed just announced a major shift in its approach to inflation, and the move is not getting nearly the attention that it deserves. That is, of course, unless you don’t mind inflation moving higher than any other time in recent memory.
Writing for ThinkAdvisor, Tim Duy, senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the University of Oregon, explains the potential for the upcoming shift:
Having learned a hard lesson in the last recovery — don’t tighten monetary policy too early — the central bank is leaning in the opposite direction. In practice, that means the Fed will not just emphasize actual inflation over forecasted inflation, but will also attempt to push the inflation rate above its 2% target. It’s a whole new ballgame.
The Fed has already come close to “overheating” the economy in the past, and just last year, started to let inflation “run hot.”
Thanks to the pandemic, the “official” rate of inflation has cooled off a bit this year. But now, it appears the Fed’s own Governor Lael Brainard sees inflation as unbalanced, with the only solution being to offset that imbalance and focus.
Here’s how the Fed is setting the stage for rising inflation again…
Brainard made this fairly clear in recent commentary captured on Robert Wenzel’s Economic Policy Journal:
Brainard pointed out that “research suggests that refraining from liftoff until inflation reaches 2% could lead to some modest temporary overshooting, which would help offset the previous underperformance.”
Wenzel provided an analogy to illustrate the situation, writing: “This type of goose-inflation policy action is the equivalent of the early 20th-century medical practice of prescribing smoking to treat asthma.”
You can see the official CPI inflation for the U.S. illustrated below, before much (if any) change in Fed policy has taken place:
Between this May and June, inflation has already started to rise, with the potential for much more of an increase if the Fed lets it “run hot” again.
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Along with the near-certainty for loosening monetary policy, the Fed could be devoting more of its focus to the unemployment situation in the U.S.:
Brainard said the Fed should focus on achieving “employment outcomes with the kind of breadth and depth that were only achieved late in the previous recovery.” The Fed is going to try to run the economy hot to push down unemployment.
“I don’t see any need to act any time soon until we see substantial movement in inflation to our 2% target and ideally overshoot a bit,” said Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to the Wall Street Journal.
In summary, the Fed seems to be suggesting it will counterbalance “lower” inflation by overshooting its 2% inflation target. Just how far the Fed overshoots is anybody’s guess.
One thing is likely… the Fed isn’t going to be reporting the “real inflation” that hits the consumer in the pocketbook (about 4% currently) while it plays around “balancing” the numbers.
Wenzel leaves us with this dire outlook: “Three-percent inflation is very likely, possibly 5%, but I can’t rule out 10% or 13% if the Fed really screws things up given their fatuous thinking about inflation and their overconfidence on how easy it will be to get price inflation under control once it starts to climb at a serious pace.”
Let’s hope that the inflation “horse” can be put back into the barn, before 1980s-style hyperinflation starts becoming a reality.
Hedge Your Bets Against Rising Inflation
Strange times like these require you to examine your situation. Especially if inflation starts to climb at a serious rate.
Consider hedging your bets against inflation, including the possibility of diversifying your savings with precious metals like gold and silver.
Inflation might start going on the rise, but your buying power doesn’t have to shrink.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--Technical Analyst: Gold & Silver To Rally Significantly (After Gold Sells-Off To Below $1400)

Everyone and their brother seem to think that gold mining stocks can only go up .
In reality , the opposite is most likely for the next few days – weeks .
This is probably the final warning that you read about the decline before it happens .
The very bearish indications for the mining stocks became near crystal-clear based on yesterday ’ s price action .
And what action was that ?
It was a breakdown !
Breakdown below the rising , medium-term support line which was also the lower border of the rising wedge pattern .
Gold miners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relatively strong volume .
And shortly after , the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index flashed the most extremely overbought reading – 100 .
Gold miners also declined right after rallying once again – just like they have done in 2016 , during the only other time when Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index got as overbought .
The RSI just moved back below 70 , flashing a sell signal , and the Stochastic indicator flashed a sell signal of its own .
It ’ s really hard to imagine a more bearish combination for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was any indication that gold is about to decline as well… Of course , there is one .
Actually , more than one , but let ’ s focus on the obvious .
Namely , gold just moved to its 2011 highs .
It didn ’ t move above the $ 1,900 level , but it closed above $ 1,883.25 yesterday .
And why would this level be important ?
Because in the entire recorded history , there were only two other cases when gold closed above $ 1,883.25 and in both cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to decline significantly in the following hours and days .
Gold futures closed at $ 1,890 yesterday , and moved a bit higher in today ’ s pre-market trading before giving up their gains .
At the same time , gold broke below the very short-term rising support line .
Miners just can ’ t wait to slide , and it seems that gold is about to provide them with a major trigger .
It is very often the case that gold takes signals from the USD Index .
That was definitely the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , when USD ’ s major bottom corresponded to gold ’ s major top .
And right now… Right now , the USD Index appears to be repeating its early-March performance .
It broke below the 95 level , just like it did back then .
It ’ s been trading below this level for longer , but it ’ s not that surprising given the overall lower volatility this time .
Accounting for the lower volatility this time , it still seems that the time is up for the USD Index ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small breakout above the very short-term declining resistance line ( dashed line on the above chart ) appears to confirm it .
So , we not only have a very powerful combination of bearish factors in case of the mining stocks , bearish confirmation from gold , but also an indication that gold is about to get a major bearish trigger that already caused its price to slide in March .
The only piece of the perfectly bearish puzzle for the short term ( and short term only ! )
that seems to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the general stock market .
But is it really missing ?
The S & P 500 futures have just invalidated the previous breakout above the June high , and at the same time they broke below the rising support line – just like the GDX ETF did yesterday .
This is a bearish combination in the short run .
This is especially the case given that this rising , medium-term support line already worked two times in recent weeks .
The previous support lines that were broken ( also visible on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breakdowns triggered a major decline .
However , they were previously not proven as support lines that already worked .
This time , we saw a breakdown below the line that already held twice .
This means that the current breakdown is important .
As far as the current overview of the upcoming decline is concerned , I think that after bottoming temporarily at about $ 1,700 , gold , silver and miners will bounce back – perhaps $ 30- $ 50 or so in gold , and then we will probably see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than miners .
That would be in tune with how the markets initially reacted to the Covid-19 threat .
However , we are not married to this outlook .
Gold moved to almost $ 1,900 and starting from this level instead of $ 1,700 or so and moving to $ 1,400 would imply a decline almost twice as big now .
Consequently , there is a chance that the decline to $ 1,700 is all there we ’ ll see , before the PMs move higher .
How will we tell , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the way different parts of the precious metals sector react to the decline and to the initial rebound .
If silver catches up with the decline when gold moves to $ 1,700 , but miners lead on the way back up ( strongly so ) , it will be more likely that the bullish scenario prevails .
If we see the opposite – miners are weak during the rebound and silver doesn ’ t catch up with the decline once gold approaches $ 1,700 , the bearish case will prevail .
Anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we will keep our subscribers updated in any case .
The impact of all the new rounds of money printing in the U.S. and Europe on the precious metals prices is very positive in the long run , but it doesn ’ t make the short-term decline unlikely .
In the very near term , markets can and do get ahead of themselves and then need to decline – sometimes very profoundly – before continuing their upward march .
Summing up , the extremely overbought reading from the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ silver ’ s powerful upswing ) make the current case very similar to the 2016 topping pattern , and other important indications ( especially gold ’ s and USD ’ s long-term cycles ) point to likely – sizable – decline in the following several weeks .
Miners ’ relatively weak performance relative to gold and ( especially ) silver suggest that miners are about to move visibly lower .
Naturally , everyone ’ s trading is their responsibility , but in our opinion , if there ever was a time to either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or to increase its size if it wasn ’ t already sizable , it ’ s now .
We made money on the March decline and on the March rebound , and it seems that another massive slide is about to start .
When everyone is on one side of the boat , it ’ s a good idea to be on the other side , and the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index literally indicates that this is the case with mining stocks .
After the sell-off ( that takes gold below $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ metals to rally significantly .
The final decline might take as little as 1-6 weeks , so it ’ s important to stay alert to any changes .
Most importantly – stay healthy and safe .
We made a lot of money on the March decline and the subsequent rebound ( its initial part ) price moves ( and we ’ ll likely make much more in the following weeks and months ) , but you have to be healthy to really enjoy the results .
Today ’ s Gold & Silver Trading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position , clear profit-tale levels – also for the leveraged instruments .
We invite you to subscribe and read today ’ s issue right away .

by Przemyslaw Radomski via Sunshine Profits
Everyone and their brother seem to think that gold mining stocks can only go up. In reality, the opposite is most likely for the next few days – weeks.
This is probably the final warning that you read about the decline before it happens. The very bearish indications for the mining stocks became near crystal-clear based on yesterday’s price action. And what action was that?
It was a breakdown! Breakdown below the rising, medium-term support line which was also the lower border of the rising wedge pattern.
Gold miners broke below the rising support line on relatively strong volume.
Despite gold’s daily upswing.
And shortly after, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index flashed the most extremely overbought reading – 100.
Gold miners also declined right after rallying once again – just like they have done in 2016, during the only other time when Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index got as overbought.
The RSI just moved back below 70, flashing a sell signal, and the Stochastic indicator flashed a sell signal of its own.
It’s really hard to imagine a more bearish combination for the mining stocks.
If there only was any indication that gold is about to decline as well… Of course, there is one. Actually, more than one, but let’s focus on the obvious. Namely, gold just moved to its 2011 highs. It didn’t move above the $1,900 level, but it closed above $1,883.25 yesterday. And why would this level be important?
Because in the entire recorded history, there were only two other cases when gold closed above $1,883.25 and in both cases, gold then moved initially higher only to decline significantly in the following hours and days.
Gold futures closed at $1,890 yesterday, and moved a bit higher in today’s pre-market trading before giving up their gains. At the same time, gold broke below the very short-term rising support line.
Miners just can’t wait to slide, and it seems that gold is about to provide them with a major trigger.
But wait, there’s more.
It is very often the case that gold takes signals from the USD Index. That was definitely the case in the first half of March, when USD’s major bottom corresponded to gold’s major top. And right now…
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Right now, the USD Index appears to be repeating its early-March performance. It broke below the 95 level, just like it did back then. It’s been trading below this level for longer, but it’s not that surprising given the overall lower volatility this time.
Accounting for the lower volatility this time, it still seems that the time is up for the USD Index’s decline, and today’s small breakout above the very short-term declining resistance line (dashed line on the above chart) appears to confirm it.
So, we not only have a very powerful combination of bearish factors in case of the mining stocks, bearish confirmation from gold, but also an indication that gold is about to get a major bearish trigger that already caused its price to slide in March.
The only piece of the perfectly bearish puzzle for the short term (and short term only!) that seems to be missing, is the bearish outlook for the general stock market. But is it really missing?
The S&P 500 futures have just invalidated the previous breakout above the June high, and at the same time they broke below the rising support line – just like the GDX ETF did yesterday. This is a bearish combination in the short run.
This is especially the case given that this rising, medium-term support line already worked two times in recent weeks. The previous support lines that were broken (also visible on the above chart) and none of these breakdowns triggered a major decline. However, they were previously not proven as support lines that already worked. This time, we saw a breakdown below the line that already held twice. This means that the current breakdown is important.
Overview of the Upcoming Decline
As far as the current overview of the upcoming decline is concerned, I think that after bottoming temporarily at about $1,700, gold, silver and miners will bounce back – perhaps $30-$50 or so in gold, and then we will probably see another move lower, with silver declining more than miners. That would be in tune with how the markets initially reacted to the Covid-19 threat.
However, we are not married to this outlook. Gold moved to almost $1,900 and starting from this level instead of $1,700 or so and moving to $1,400 would imply a decline almost twice as big now. Consequently, there is a chance that the decline to $1,700 is all there we’ll see, before the PMs move higher.
How will we tell, which scenario is more likely? Based on the way different parts of the precious metals sector react to the decline and to the initial rebound. If silver catches up with the decline when gold moves to $1,700, but miners lead on the way back up (strongly so), it will be more likely that the bullish scenario prevails. If we see the opposite – miners are weak during the rebound and silver doesn’t catch up with the decline once gold approaches $1,700, the bearish case will prevail. Anything in between will require additional confirmations and we will keep our subscribers updated in any case.
The impact of all the new rounds of money printing in the U.S. and Europe on the precious metals prices is very positive in the long run, but it doesn’t make the short-term decline unlikely. In the very near term, markets can and do get ahead of themselves and then need to decline – sometimes very profoundly – before continuing their upward march.
Summary
Summing up, the extremely overbought reading from the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index and the individual price moves (including silver’s powerful upswing) make the current case very similar to the 2016 topping pattern, and other important indications (especially gold’s and USD’s long-term cycles) point to likely – sizable – decline in the following several weeks. Miners’ relatively weak performance relative to gold and (especially) silver suggest that miners are about to move visibly lower.
Naturally, everyone’s trading is their responsibility, but in our opinion, if there ever was a time to either enter a short position in the miners or to increase its size if it wasn’t already sizable, it’s now. We made money on the March decline and on the March rebound, and it seems that another massive slide is about to start. When everyone is on one side of the boat, it’s a good idea to be on the other side, and the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index literally indicates that this is the case with mining stocks.
After the sell-off (that takes gold below $1,400), we expect the precious metals to rally significantly. The final decline might take as little as 1-6 weeks, so it’s important to stay alert to any changes.
Most importantly – stay healthy and safe. We made a lot of money on the March decline and the subsequent rebound (its initial part) price moves (and we’ll likely make much more in the following weeks and months), but you have to be healthy to really enjoy the results.
Today’s Gold & Silver Trading Alert includes details regarding our current trading position, clear profit-tale levels – also for the leveraged instruments. We invite you to subscribe and read today’s issue right away.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--#RESIST: John MacArthur’s Grace Community Church announces it will not obey California’s ban on indo

#RESIST: John MacArthur’s Grace Community Church announces it will not obey California’s ban on indoor worship services.

Grace Community Church in Sun Valley , California , which is pastored by influential theologian and author John MacArthur , announced Friday that it would continue holding in-person services , saying state mandates restricting worship are an overstep of government authority and thus they have no duty to follow them .
Pastor MacArthur argued in a blog post published on Friday that “ government officials have no right to interfere in ecclesiastical matters in a way that undermines or disregards the God-given authority of pastors and elders.
” “ Therefore , in response to the recent state order requiring churches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meetings indefinitely , we , the pastors and elders of Grace Community Church , respectfully inform our civic leaders that they have exceeded their legitimate jurisdiction , and faithfulness to Christ prohibits us from observing the restrictions they want to impose on our corporate worship services , ” MacArthur wrote .
On July 13 , California indefinitely closed churches— as well as restaurants , bars , fitness centers , hair salons , and barbershops — in at least 32 counties .
A group of churches from the state also recently sued California Gov @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ban on singing in churches as a way to curb the spread of the coronavirus .

Grace Community Church in Sun Valley, California, which is pastored by influential theologian and author John MacArthur, announced Friday that it would continue holding in-person services, saying state mandates restricting worship are an overstep of government authority and thus they have no duty to follow them.
Pastor MacArthur argued in a blog post published on Friday that “government officials have no right to interfere in ecclesiastical matters in a way that undermines or disregards the God-given authority of pastors and elders.”
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“Therefore, in response to the recent state order requiring churches in California to limit or suspend all meetings indefinitely, we, the pastors and elders of Grace Community Church, respectfully inform our civic leaders that they have exceeded their legitimate jurisdiction, and faithfulness to Christ prohibits us from observing the restrictions they want to impose on our corporate worship services,” MacArthur wrote.
On July 13, California indefinitely closed churches— as well as restaurants, bars, fitness centers, hair salons, and barbershops — in at least 32 counties. A group of churches from the state also recently sued California Gov. Gavin Newsom after he instituted a ban on singing in churches as a way to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
disrn.com/news/john-macarthurs-grace-community-church-announces-it-will-not-obey-californias-ban-on-indoor-worship-services


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-24--#MacroView: Navigating The Tech Bubble & Living To Tell About It.

There has been a growing concern over Technology stocks as investors “ Party Like It ’ s 1999.
” While no two periods are the same , the outcomes often are .
For longer-term investors , if we are amid another “ Tech Bubble , ” the biggest challenge is navigating it and “ living to tell about it.
” That certainly seems an apropos statement after watching the financial markets plunge 35 % in March to recover back to positive territory by July .
Interestingly , this is the fastest rebound in the market since 1938 but is occurring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are some current stats : • -104.2 billion decrease in international transactions for Q1 ( Q2 will be markedly worse ) • -54.6 billion decrease in international trade of goods and services .
There is no precedent for such a dichotomy between the markets and the economy .
Yet , as stated , this is the fast recovery in the market since 1938 .
Just not so much for the economy .
As I said , we certainly live in “ interesting times.
” Over the last couple of weeks , I have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the deviation between value and growth .
Part of those discussions related to similarities seen at previous market peaks where investors threw “ caution to the wind ” and paid astronomical prices to own the “ hot stocks.
” To this point specifically , we quoted Scott McNealy , then CEO of Sun MicroSystems , who chastised investors for paying 10x Price-to-Sales for his company .
That was in 1999 .
Today , investors are doing it again .
Of course , much of this is “ forgotten history ” as many investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1999 , or b ) still too young to invest .
For the newer generation of investors , the lack of “ experience ” provides no basis for the importance of “ valuations ” to future outcomes .
That is something only learned through experience .
Just as was the case in 1999 , investors believe that stocks are essentially a “ one-decision ” investment .
You buy them , and they only go up in price .
In 1999 , a large majority of these companies were financially unstable or grossly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shown above , it isn ’ t much different .
In 1999 , there was “ no one ” saying there was a “ Tech Bubble.
” As Mark Hulbert recently noted , it was quite the opposite .
It also smacks of current sentiment as well : “ After reading through my newsletter archives from January 2000 , I was struck by the similarities between now and then .
For example , one newsletter editor in mid-January 2000 said he was encouraged that the Fed was signaling that it wouldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought .
Another said , “ inflation is dead.
” A third celebrated the strength of the economy , as evidenced by robust consumer spending in the Christmas season that had just ended .
Sound familiar ?
To be sure , these similarities don ’ t mean the U.S. market is at or near a top .
It does illustrate the false comfort we gain when telling ourselves a bear market can ’ t happen since the economy is strong , inflation is moribund , and the Fed is accommodative.
” As Mark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of valuations is concerning .
However , valuations are a poor measure of market “ bubbles.
” Why ?
Because “ bubbles ” are a “ psychological phenomenon ” where investor “ greed ” completely overrides “ logic ” and “ restraint.
” Throughout history , all market crashes have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels , such as liquidity issues , government actions , monetary policy mistakes , recessions , or inflationary spikes .
Those events were the catalyst , or trigger , that started the “ reversion in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing to do with fundamentals .
It is strictly an emotional panic , which is ultimately reflected by a sharp devaluation in market fundamentals .
As Bob Bronson once penned : “ It can be reasonably assumed that markets are sufficient enough that every bubble is significantly different than the previous one , and even all earlier bubbles .
It ’ s to be expected that a new bubble will always be different from the previous one ( s ) .
Investors will only bid prices to extreme overvaluation levels if they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the last , or previous bubbles .
Comparing the current extreme overvaluation to the dotcom is intellectually silly .
I would argue that when comparisons to previous bubbles become most popular , like now , it ’ s a reliable timing marker of the top in a current bubble .
As an analogy , no matter how thoroughly a fatal car crash is studied , there will still be other fatal car crashes , even if drivers avoid the previous accident-causing mistakes.
” Comparing the current market to any previous period in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current market is not like 1995 , 1999 , or 2007 ?
Valuations , economics , drivers , etc .
are all different from cycle to the next .
Most importantly , however , the financial markets adapt to the cause of the previous “ fatal crashes.
” Still , that adaptation won ’ t prevent the next one .
So , if “ bubbles ” are specifically a function of “ speculative appetite , ” there should be some relevant indications suggestion that such exists .
One of the best measures of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ options speculation.
” Options are leveraged bets for market participants , which can , and often do , wind up worthless in value .
There have only been two previous points in history where options speculation was this high – February 2020 and March 2000 .
The RIAPro “ Fear/Greed ” gauge is based on both retail and professional investor positioning in the markets .
That indicator is well back into “ greed “ territory .
However , those measures are more reflective of the broader markets .
Like 1999 , the real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sentiment has jumped to a record high .
Furthermore , a reflection of the underlying “ greed ” is in the market ’ s price relative to its longer-term moving averages .
The chart below shows the 2- and 3-standard deviation ranges of the Nasdaq 100 index from the underlying 200-dma .
Longer-term moving averages are the “ gravity ” to prices .
The greater the deviation from the long-term moving average , the greater the “ pull ” on prices .
With regularity , extreme deviations in one-direction lead to a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Currently , the Nasdaq 100 index is trading 3-standard deviations above the 200-dma .
The last time was this past February .
But we saw it previously in August and November of 2007 .
And , of course , in 1999-2000 .
While such deviations do not necessarily mean that a massive correction is imminent , it does suggest elevated risk .
When prices become this extreme , it only takes a little “ nudge ” to start a correction .
Again , none of this suggests the market is going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is coming , it is inevitable , the only question is of the timing .
Remaining fully invested in the financial markets without a thorough understanding of your ‘ risk exposure ’ will likely not have the promised result you desire .
My job , as a steward of our client ’ s assets , is to participate in the markets while keeping a measured approach to capital preservation .
Since it is considered “ bearish ” to discuss investment “ risk , ” then I guess you can call me a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I am still in “ theater , ” we are just moving much closer to the “ exit.
” As we saw in March , when someone does eventually yell “ fire , ” we want to make sure there is easy access to an “ exit.
” If you have been around the markets for any length of time , you can quickly spot the “ pigeons at the poker table.
” They are the ones that rationalize why prices can only rise , why “ this time is different , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trying to “ draw to an inside straight ” is not impossible , it just leads to losses more often than not .
But therein lies an important point .
As investors , our job is NOT making a case for why markets will go up .
Coming up with reasons why markets will rise is a pointless endeavor when you are already invested .
If the markets rise , terrific .
We all made money , and we are the better for it .
However , that is not our job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If we are to accumulate capital over the long-term , the most important thing to ensure success is to avoid large capital losses .
Therefore , our job as investors is quite simple : With forward returns likely to be lower and more volatile than promised by the mainstream media , the need for a more conservative approach is rising .
Controlling risk , reducing emotional investment mistakes , and limiting the destruction of investment capital is the formula for investment success .
The following investment guidelines are not new , nor totally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learned , and relearned , over the last 30 years .
As an investment manager , I am neither bullish or bearish .
I simply view the markets through the lens of statistics and probabilities .
Our job is to manage the inherent risk to investment capital .
Yes , markets have always recovered their losses , but that isn ’ t the same thing as making money .

by Lance Roberts
There has been a growing concern over Technology stocks as investors “Party Like It’s 1999.” While no two periods are the same, the outcomes often are. For longer-term investors, if we are amid another “Tech Bubble,” the biggest challenge is navigating it and “living to tell about it.”
Interesting Times
“May you live in interesting times.” – Joseph Chamberlain
That certainly seems an apropos statement after watching the financial markets plunge 35% in March to recover back to positive territory by July. Interestingly, this is the fastest rebound in the market since 1938 but is occurring against a near economic depression.
Here are some current stats:
-34.7% Annualized GDP Growth (-8.675% for Q2) via Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate
~50-million people unemployed
-4.2% personal income
-104.2 billion decrease in international transactions for Q1 (Q2 will be markedly worse)
-54.6 billion decrease in international trade of goods and services.
~30% decline in corporate profits
~35% decline in corporate earnings based on current estimates
There is no precedent for such a dichotomy between the markets and the economy. Yet, as stated, this is the fast recovery in the market since 1938. Just not so much for the economy.
As I said, we certainly live in “interesting times.”
Party Like It’s 1999
Over the last couple of weeks, I have discussed the disparity in value, and the deviation between value and growth.
Part of those discussions related to similarities seen at previous market peaks where investors threw “caution to the wind” and paid astronomical prices to own the “hot stocks.” To this point specifically, we quoted Scott McNealy, then CEO of Sun MicroSystems, who chastised investors for paying 10x Price-to-Sales for his company. That was in 1999. Today, investors are doing it again.
Of course, much of this is “forgotten history” as many investors today were either a) not alive in 1999, or b) still too young to invest. For the newer generation of investors, the lack of “experience” provides no basis for the importance of “valuations” to future outcomes. That is something only learned through experience.
Just as was the case in 1999, investors believe that stocks are essentially a “one-decision” investment. You buy them, and they only go up in price. In 1999, a large majority of these companies were financially unstable or grossly overvalued at best. Today, as shown above, it isn’t much different.
Bubbles Are About Psychology
In 1999, there was “no one” saying there was a “Tech Bubble.” As Mark Hulbert recently noted, it was quite the opposite. It also smacks of current sentiment as well:
“After reading through my newsletter archives from January 2000, I was struck by the similarities between now and then. For example, one newsletter editor in mid-January 2000 said he was encouraged that the Fed was signaling that it wouldn’t be raising rates as aggressively as previously thought. Another said, “inflation is dead.” A third celebrated the strength of the economy, as evidenced by robust consumer spending in the Christmas season that had just ended. Sound familiar? To be sure, these similarities don’t mean the U.S. market is at or near a top. It does illustrate the false comfort we gain when telling ourselves a bear market can’t happen since the economy is strong, inflation is moribund, and the Fed is accommodative.”
As Mark goes on to note, the extension of valuations is concerning. However, valuations are a poor measure of market “bubbles.” Why? Because “bubbles” are a “psychological phenomenon” where investor “greed” completely overrides “logic” and “restraint.”
“Greed” Really Isn’t Good
Throughout history, all market crashes have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels, such as liquidity issues, government actions, monetary policy mistakes, recessions, or inflationary spikes. Those events were the catalyst, or trigger, that started the “reversion in sentiment” by investors.
Market crashes are an “emotionally” driven imbalance in supply and demand.
Such has nothing to do with fundamentals. It is strictly an emotional panic, which is ultimately reflected by a sharp devaluation in market fundamentals. As Bob Bronson once penned:
“It can be reasonably assumed that markets are sufficient enough that every bubble is significantly different than the previous one, and even all earlier bubbles. It’s to be expected that a new bubble will always be different from the previous one(s). Investors will only bid prices to extreme overvaluation levels if they are sure it is not repeating what led to the last, or previous bubbles. Comparing the current extreme overvaluation to the dotcom is intellectually silly. I would argue that when comparisons to previous bubbles become most popular, like now, it’s a reliable timing marker of the top in a current bubble. As an analogy, no matter how thoroughly a fatal car crash is studied, there will still be other fatal car crashes, even if drivers avoid the previous accident-causing mistakes.”
Comparing the current market to any previous period in the market is rather pointless. The current market is not like 1995, 1999, or 2007? Valuations, economics, drivers, etc. are all different from cycle to the next. Most importantly, however, the financial markets adapt to the cause of the previous “fatal crashes.” Still, that adaptation won’t prevent the next one.
Signs Of Exuberance
So, if “bubbles” are specifically a function of “speculative appetite,” there should be some relevant indications suggestion that such exists.
One of the best measures of “exuberance” is looking at “options speculation.” Options are leveraged bets for market participants, which can, and often do, wind up worthless in value. There have only been two previous points in history where options speculation was this high – February 2020 and March 2000.
The RIAPro “Fear/Greed” gauge is based on both retail and professional investor positioning in the markets. That indicator is well back into “greed “ territory.
However, those measures are more reflective of the broader markets. Like 1999, the real exuberance is in the Nasdaq, where sentiment has jumped to a record high.
Furthermore, a reflection of the underlying “greed” is in the market’s price relative to its longer-term moving averages. The chart below shows the 2- and 3-standard deviation ranges of the Nasdaq 100 index from the underlying 200-dma.
Longer-term moving averages are the “gravity” to prices. The greater the deviation from the long-term moving average, the greater the “pull” on prices. With regularity, extreme deviations in one-direction lead to a “mean reverting” event in the other. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 index is trading 3-standard deviations above the 200-dma. The last time was this past February.
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But we saw it previously in August and November of 2007.
And, of course, in 1999-2000.
While such deviations do not necessarily mean that a massive correction is imminent, it does suggest elevated risk. When prices become this extreme, it only takes a little “nudge” to start a correction.
History Doesn’t Repeat
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain.
Again, none of this suggests the market is going to crash tomorrow. But a mean-reversion process is coming, it is inevitable, the only question is of the timing.
Remaining fully invested in the financial markets without a thorough understanding of your ‘risk exposure’ will likely not have the promised result you desire.
My job, as a steward of our client’s assets, is to participate in the markets while keeping a measured approach to capital preservation. Since it is considered “bearish” to discuss investment “risk,” then I guess you can call me a “bear.”
Just make sure you understand I am still in “theater,” we are just moving much closer to the “exit.”
As we saw in March, when someone does eventually yell “fire,” we want to make sure there is easy access to an “exit.”
Defining Our Job
“The more things change, the more they remain the same.”
If you have been around the markets for any length of time, you can quickly spot the “pigeons at the poker table.” They are the ones that rationalize why prices can only rise, why “this time is different,” and focus only on the bullish supports. Trying to “draw to an inside straight” is not impossible, it just leads to losses more often than not.
But therein lies an important point.
As investors, our job is NOT making a case for why markets will go up.
Read that again.
Coming up with reasons why markets will rise is a pointless endeavor when you are already invested.
If the markets rise, terrific. We all made money, and we are the better for it. However, that is not our job.
Our job is to analyze, understand, measure, and prepare for what will reduce the value of our invested capital.
Period.
How To Survive The Tech Bubble
If we are to accumulate capital over the long-term, the most important thing to ensure success is to avoid large capital losses.
Therefore, our job as investors is quite simple:
Capital preservation
A rate of return sufficient to keep pace with the rate of inflation.
Expectations based on realistic objectives. (The market does not compound at 8%, 6% or 4%)
(The market does not compound at 8%, 6% or 4%) Higher rates of return require an exponential increase in the underlying risk profile. Such tends to not work out well.
Such tends to not work out well. You can replace lost capital – but you can’t replace lost time. Time is a precious commodity that you cannot afford to waste.
Time is a precious commodity that you cannot afford to waste. Portfolios are time-frame specific. If you have a 5-years to retirement but build a portfolio with a 20-year time horizon (increasing draw-down risk,) the results will likely be disastrous.
With forward returns likely to be lower and more volatile than promised by the mainstream media, the need for a more conservative approach is rising. Controlling risk, reducing emotional investment mistakes, and limiting the destruction of investment capital is the formula for investment success.
The Rules
The following investment guidelines are not new, nor totally unique, but are ones I have learned, and relearned, over the last 30 years.
Investing is not a competition . There are no prizes for winning but there are severe penalties for losing.
. There are no prizes for winning but there are severe penalties for losing. Emotions have no place in investing. You are generally better off doing the opposite of what you “feel” you should be doing.
You are generally better off doing the opposite of what you “feel” you should be doing. The ONLY investments that you can “buy and hold” are those that provide an income stream with a return of principal function.
are those that provide an income stream with a return of principal function. Market valuations (except at extremes) are very poor market timing devices.
(except at extremes) are very poor market timing devices. Fundamentals and Economics drive long-term investment decisions – “Greed and Fear” drive short-term trading. Knowing what type of investor you are determines the basis of your strategy.
drive long-term investment decisions – “Greed and Fear” drive short-term trading. Knowing what type of investor you are determines the basis of your strategy. “Market timing” is impossible – managing exposure to risk is both logical and possible.
– managing exposure to risk is both logical and possible. Investment is about discipline and patience. Lacking either one can be destructive to your investment goals.
Lacking either one can be destructive to your investment goals. There is no value in daily media commentary – turn off the television and save yourself the mental capital.
– turn off the television and save yourself the mental capital. Investing is no different than gambling – both are “guesses” about future outcomes based on probabilities. The winner is the one who knows when to “fold” and when to go “all in”.
– both are “guesses” about future outcomes based on probabilities. The winner is the one who knows when to “fold” and when to go “all in”. No investment strategy works all the time. The trick is knowing the difference between a bad investment strategy and one that is temporarily out of favor.
As an investment manager, I am neither bullish or bearish. I simply view the markets through the lens of statistics and probabilities. Our job is to manage the inherent risk to investment capital.
Yes, markets have always recovered their losses, but that isn’t the same thing as making money.