investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--This Chart On Retail Will Shock You

This Chart On Retail Will Shock You

The economy likely had solid job growth in September , albeit it will be much lower than August .
It ’ s good job creation given the circumstances .
Specifically , the leisure and hospitality industry is hamstrung by the COVID-19 restrictions .
Airplane travel is still down by about 2/3rds .
We need better treatments or a vaccine to show promise along with testing at airports .
The travel industry can recover next year if everything goes right .
The good news is the 7 day average of testing has reached 883,087 which is near its record high .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ right direction , but more work needs to be done .
According to homebase , the leisure and entertainment industry had an abnormally large decline in hours worked at the end of the summer .
That ’ s likely because summer activities ended .
Within this industry we even had an uneven recovery .
If outdoor activities were holding the industry up , it ’ s headed for a world of hurt before rapid testing , vaccines , and treatments get the economy back to normal .
As you can see from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in employees working in September which was less weakness than usual .
Specifically , there was a 25 % decline in employees working from January to September .
That ’ s 4 points worse than August .
However , part of the sample period was during Labor Day weekend .
That holiday has sharply altered a lot of non-seasonally adjusted data .
We look forward to a better representation of reality on how the labor market did when the BLS report comes out on Friday .
The consensus calls for 850,000 jobs created @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report comes out on Wednesday that it has been below the BLS report each month since the recovery started , but the error rate has been falling .
Therefore , if it disappoints , it might be more worrisome than recent months , but not a disaster .
Headline August durable goods orders missed estimates , but core capital goods orders beat them .
Specifically , monthly new order growth fell from 11.7 % to 0.4 % which missed estimates for 1.5 % .
That being said , the revision was 0.5 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimates and had a higher July revision .
Growth fell from 2.5 % to 1.8 % which beat estimates by a tenth .
The revision was up from 1.9 % .
The table above shows the much-discussed K-shaped recovery .
If you look at the letter ‘ K ’ , each of its arms go in opposite direction which is how the economy did .
The transportation industry is the bottom arm as its orders are still down 15.7 % from February .
On the other hand , computers and electronics orders are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , investors exclude aircraft orders to get a true understanding of the economy because those orders are volatile .
This time , we will be focused on aircraft orders because they are a key signal of when the bottom arm of the K shaped recovery starts to revert to normalcy like the rest of the economy .
We ’ ve been saying this is the strongest housing market since the last bubble in the 2000s .
The data is truly bearing that out .
As you can see from the chart below , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in August which was the highest for a month since late 2006 which was the end of the housing bubble .
The single-family housing market is strong because of low rates , people moving from cities to single family homes in the suburbs , and high household net worth .
The people who can afford to buy a house make more money which means they are working from home ( higher income = more likely to work from home in the pandemic ) .
They can afford to move to the suburbs because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work at home .
The new trend after COVID-19 is over will be hybrid working where people will come into the office sometimes .
It ’ s not as bad to live further from work if you only need to come in a couple times per week .
The housing market differed drastically by region .
Remember , most new sales are always in the west and the south .
It wouldn ’ t matter much to the overall reading if the northeast varied drastically from the rest of the country .
Monthly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is why the overall reading was strong .
Growth was 5 % in the northeast and -21.4 % in the Midwest .
Growth was -1.7 % in the west .
The weakness in the west was likely due to the wildfires .
6,900 structures were destroyed since August 15th .
Obviously , many building projects were delayed by this event .
As you can see from the chart below , there are only 3.3 months of new home inventory left which is a record how .
That makes sense because we had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t catch up .
Given the massive shift in sales from brick and mortar stores to online sales , one would expect there to be a lot of retail bankruptcies .
However , there were very few bankruptcies in 2020 .
As the chart below shows , there were only 44 bankruptcies through August 13th .
That ’ s around the same as there have been since 2010 .
It ’ s about 1/10th of the bankruptcies in 2008 .
That ’ s because this has been the best year for retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ note , there have been $ 329.8 billion in junk bonds issued in 2020 .
That set a new record as of September 23rd as it passed the 2012 record .
We still have a few months left in the year to extend the record .
We have extreme risk taking , firms ( like in retail ) that need to issue debt , a supportive Fed , and low interest rates .
It ’ s the best time ever to issue junk debt .
Job creation ( technically people getting their old @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as we will see in Friday ’ s report .
It ’ s strong when you consider how hampered the leisure and hospitality industry still is .
The durable goods orders report was solid .
Transportation is still in trouble as it is the bottom part of the K-shaped recovery .
This is the hottest housing market since the 2000s bubble .
Even though this has been a terrible year for physical retail , the debt market bailed out retailers which is why there were so few retail bankruptcies .
Junk debt issuance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time to spare .

by UPFINA
The economy likely had solid job growth in September, albeit it will be much lower than August. It’s good job creation given the circumstances. Specifically, the leisure and hospitality industry is hamstrung by the COVID-19 restrictions. Airplane travel is still down by about 2/3rds. We need better treatments or a vaccine to show promise along with testing at airports. The travel industry can recover next year if everything goes right. The good news is the 7 day average of testing has reached 883,087 which is near its record high. The testing data is headed in the right direction, but more work needs to be done.
According to homebase, the leisure and entertainment industry had an abnormally large decline in hours worked at the end of the summer. That’s likely because summer activities ended. Within this industry we even had an uneven recovery. If outdoor activities were holding the industry up, it’s headed for a world of hurt before rapid testing, vaccines, and treatments get the economy back to normal.
As you can see from the chart above, there was modest weakness in employees working in September which was less weakness than usual. Specifically, there was a 25% decline in employees working from January to September. That’s 4 points worse than August. However, part of the sample period was during Labor Day weekend. That holiday has sharply altered a lot of non-seasonally adjusted data. We look forward to a better representation of reality on how the labor market did when the BLS report comes out on Friday. The consensus calls for 850,000 jobs created. Keep in mind after the ADP report comes out on Wednesday that it has been below the BLS report each month since the recovery started, but the error rate has been falling. Therefore, if it disappoints, it might be more worrisome than recent months, but not a disaster.
Review Of August Durable Goods Orders Report
Headline August durable goods orders missed estimates, but core capital goods orders beat them. Specifically, monthly new order growth fell from 11.7% to 0.4% which missed estimates for 1.5%. That being said, the revision was 0.5% higher. Core capital goods orders beat estimates and had a higher July revision. Growth fell from 2.5% to 1.8% which beat estimates by a tenth. The revision was up from 1.9%.
The partial durable goods orders recovery Higher than pre-#Covid:
– motor vehicles
– computers and electronics
– machinery but Lower than pre-#Covid:
– aircraft
– metals
– electrical equipment pic.twitter.com/c8VwJnev5C — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) September 25, 2020
The table above shows the much-discussed K-shaped recovery. If you look at the letter ‘K’, each of its arms go in opposite direction which is how the economy did. The transportation industry is the bottom arm as its orders are still down 15.7% from February. On the other hand, computers and electronics orders are up 4.1% from February. Normally, investors exclude aircraft orders to get a true understanding of the economy because those orders are volatile. This time, we will be focused on aircraft orders because they are a key signal of when the bottom arm of the K shaped recovery starts to revert to normalcy like the rest of the economy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Massive Housing Boom
We’ve been saying this is the strongest housing market since the last bubble in the 2000s. The data is truly bearing that out. As you can see from the chart below, there were 1.011 million new home sales in August which was the highest for a month since late 2006 which was the end of the housing bubble. The single-family housing market is strong because of low rates, people moving from cities to single family homes in the suburbs, and high household net worth.
New home sales beat expectations in Aug, topping 1million for 1st time since end of housing boom in late 2006 Available inventory 3.3mo: record low Sales mixed across regions: +13.4% in South & +5.0% in Northeast but -1.7% in West & -21.4% Midwest via @nanc455 @OxfordEconomics pic.twitter.com/DPBVdF6ZEY — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) September 24, 2020
The people who can afford to buy a house make more money which means they are working from home (higher income = more likely to work from home in the pandemic). They can afford to move to the suburbs because they can keep the same job and work at home. The new trend after COVID-19 is over will be hybrid working where people will come into the office sometimes. It’s not as bad to live further from work if you only need to come in a couple times per week.
The housing market differed drastically by region. Remember, most new sales are always in the west and the south. It wouldn’t matter much to the overall reading if the northeast varied drastically from the rest of the country. Monthly growth was 13.4% in the south which is why the overall reading was strong. Growth was 5% in the northeast and -21.4% in the Midwest. Growth was -1.7% in the west. The weakness in the west was likely due to the wildfires. 6,900 structures were destroyed since August 15th. Obviously, many building projects were delayed by this event. As you can see from the chart below, there are only 3.3 months of new home inventory left which is a record how. That makes sense because we had such a quick boom. Construction couldn’t catch up.
Overall new home inventories are at a record low versus sales; just 3.35 months of sales are available in inventory across all categories of construction.
Read more in tonight's Closer: t.co/yAJ8kVDhWT pic.twitter.com/6NRwJ8wyul — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 24, 2020
Retail Bankruptcies Still Low
Given the massive shift in sales from brick and mortar stores to online sales, one would expect there to be a lot of retail bankruptcies. However, there were very few bankruptcies in 2020. As the chart below shows, there were only 44 bankruptcies through August 13th. That’s around the same as there have been since 2010. It’s about 1/10th of the bankruptcies in 2008. That’s because this has been the best year for retail debt issuance ever.
2020 has probably been the worst year in the history of physical retail, but the best year in the history of new debt issuance The result? Retail bankruptcies in the US public markets are still *10x* lower than their peak in 2008 pic.twitter.com/U4vBB9SVqf — Corry Wang (@corry_wang) September 23, 2020
On a related note, there have been $329.8 billion in junk bonds issued in 2020. That set a new record as of September 23rd as it passed the 2012 record. We still have a few months left in the year to extend the record. We have extreme risk taking, firms (like in retail) that need to issue debt, a supportive Fed, and low interest rates. It’s the best time ever to issue junk debt.
Conclusion
Job creation (technically people getting their old jobs back) was solid in September as we will see in Friday’s report. It’s strong when you consider how hampered the leisure and hospitality industry still is. The durable goods orders report was solid. Transportation is still in trouble as it is the bottom part of the K-shaped recovery. This is the hottest housing market since the 2000s bubble. Even though this has been a terrible year for physical retail, the debt market bailed out retailers which is why there were so few retail bankruptcies. Junk debt issuance hit a record high in 2020 with time to spare.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--More new lows than new highs today…. Lumber starting to doubt the latest tech bounce…

More new lows than new highs today

More new lows than new highs today
NYSE pic.twitter.com/EzDXTjU61o
— Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) September 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Alarming data shows a third wave of COVID-19 is about to hit the U.S…. Morgan Stanley slashes foreca

Alarming data shows a third wave of COVID-19 is about to hit the U.S…. Morgan Stanley slashes forecast for US economic growth through the end of the year as more stimulus appears ‘unlikely’

Alarming data shows a third wave of COVID-19 is about to hit the U.S. t.co/xAv4OjSpPn — Ninja Economics (@NinjaEconomics) September 28, 2020
Warning signs are flashing ahead of COVID's second U.S. winter t.co/lRgjWhP8eC — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 28, 2020
Morgan Stanley slashes forecast for US economic growth through the end of the year as more stimulus appears 'unlikely' t.co/1jW5izxNZb — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 28, 2020
NEW SMALL BUSINESSES & ACTIVITY pic.twitter.com/W89GponFZ3 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 26, 2020
Facing Crappiest Recovery Ever, Airlines Demand New $25-Billion Bailout, for $50 Billion Total, after Having Burned $45 Billion on Share Buybacks.
Coddled investors, not taxpayers, should step up to the plate and fund the “daily cash burn”t.co/GOfZZmoj02 — Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) September 28, 2020
"United said it is currently planning to lay off almost 12,000 workers in October unless Congress provides additional assistance beyond the $25 billion in wage support approved in March. United’s deal with ALPA would be delayed."t.co/9sBM623HHF — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) September 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--$3.2B is spent on lobbying each year in the United States. These are the companies spending the most

$3.2B is spent on lobbying each year in the United States. These are the companies spending the most.

Here ’ s a dashboard where you can investigate the graph further , and check out some other visualizations of @ @ @ @ @ spent .
Note that I ’ m still in the early stages of collecting and @ @ @ @ @ there are still some bugs which need sorted out .
The contract table below only @ @ @ @ @ , which is the last time I updated the data .
I ’ m finishing @ @ @ @ @ update this data every day , but I ’ ll plan on manually running an @ @ @ @ @ days to get the last months data for anyone who ’ s interested .
As @ @ @ @ @ know if you have any feedback or suggestions .

by pdwp90
Here’s a dashboard where you can investigate the graph further, and check out some other visualizations of how lobbying money is being spent.
Note that I’m still in the early stages of collecting and analyzing this data, and there are still some bugs which need sorted out.
The contract table below only goes up to August 19th, which is the last time I updated the data. I’m finishing up a script to automatically update this data every day, but I’ll plan on manually running an update in the next couple days to get the last months data for anyone who’s interested.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As always, please let me know if you have any feedback or suggestions.
Data Source: LDA Lobbying Disclosures
Tools: Python


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Quick explainer on DXY before you all get excited

There ’ s a lot of dollar chatter in the daily and I thought I would give a quick explanation .
TLDR dxy is a stupid indicator and you should ignore it The DXY was introduced at the time of Bretton woods and the weighting is as such : The only update since bretton woods was simply to combine several original european currencies into the euro and adding up their weightings arriving at 57.6 % , no other changes have been made .
So the DXY is therefore 75 % what goes on in the european subcontinent currency space , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ haven currency ) and CAD ( commodities ) .
This is clearly a terrible reflection of the value of the dollar .
Where is gold ?
Where is China ?
Being heavily European makes sense but not to 57.6 % .
The EuroZone GDP ~~ China and the European subcontinent GDP ~~ us GDP , with EU international trade > us trade .
( 2019 numbers ) .
Global gold value is approximately the GDP of China , with China making up ~14tln to the us ~21tln ( 2019 ) .
Any sensible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ balance of middle-size economies ( AUD , MEX anyone ? )
on a trade or GDP basis paints a very different picture to DXY .
In summary , if you are watching DXY you might as well just watch EURUSD .
If you actually want to try and value the dollar it is much more complicated but also more informative .
As a note on the “ reserve status ” question : Dollars are not held as reserves per se , mostly longer duration treasuries are held .
Actual dollars are used to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recycled through bond purchases into reserves or lending cash to other countries / businesses in dollars .
It is not in principle difficult to settle trade balances with other ‘ stores of value ’ .
For example , China has a deal with russia to settle commodities trades with notional gold transfers ( held in Shanghai ) and has a potential deal with Iran allowing trade to be settled with “ soft currency ” like Thai Baht if China wants to .
The EU had a deal with Iran to settle trade using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preserve the Iran Nuclear Deal without getting sanctioned , although it eventually collapsed .
A lot of people have been saying “ there ’ s no alternative ” but that ’ s bullshit .
Settling trade isn ’ t rocket science .
Saudi , Switzerland and Norway are using us equities as sovereign wealth funds/reserves .
The “ reserve status ” isn ’ t propped up by the trading system ( although it helps ) , it is propped up by the network of dollar-debt assets and liabilities held by basically every business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ therefore has an incentive for that not to break down , but once it starts to look like the ship could sink , everyone will want to get off ASAP to not be left bagholding assets in a devalued currency and then it definitely will sink .
This is not a prediction with a date assigned to it by the way .
It is a certainty that it will eventually happen sometime in the infinite future , but it may not happen this cycle or even this generation .
So don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long as you are investing in options and stonks it probably shouldn ’ t bother you because equities will inflate .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by learningtosail
There’s a lot of dollar chatter in the daily and I thought I would give a quick explanation.
TLDR dxy is a stupid indicator and you should ignore it
The DXY was introduced at the time of Bretton woods and the weighting is as such:
The only update since bretton woods was simply to combine several original european currencies into the euro and adding up their weightings arriving at 57.6%, no other changes have been made.
So the DXY is therefore 75% what goes on in the european subcontinent currency space, with some Yen thrown in (safe haven currency) and CAD (commodities).
This is clearly a terrible reflection of the value of the dollar. Where is gold? Where is China? Being heavily European makes sense but not to 57.6%. The EuroZone GDP ~~ China and the European subcontinent GDP ~~ us GDP, with EU international trade > us trade. (2019 numbers) . Global gold value is approximately the GDP of China, with China making up ~14tln to the us ~21tln (2019). Any sensible model including CNY and a properly weighted balance of middle-size economies (AUD, MEX anyone?) on a trade or GDP basis paints a very different picture to DXY.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In summary, if you are watching DXY you might as well just watch EURUSD. If you actually want to try and value the dollar it is much more complicated but also more informative.
As a note on the “reserve status” question: Dollars are not held as reserves per se, mostly longer duration treasuries are held. Actual dollars are used to settle trade balances, with surpluses being recycled through bond purchases into reserves or lending cash to other countries / businesses in dollars. It is not in principle difficult to settle trade balances with other ‘stores of value’. For example, China has a deal with russia to settle commodities trades with notional gold transfers (held in Shanghai) and has a potential deal with Iran allowing trade to be settled with “soft currency” like Thai Baht if China wants to. The EU had a deal with Iran to settle trade using a literal barter system in order to preserve the Iran Nuclear Deal without getting sanctioned, although it eventually collapsed.
A lot of people have been saying “there’s no alternative” but that’s bullshit. Settling trade isn’t rocket science. Saudi, Switzerland and Norway are using us equities as sovereign wealth funds/reserves.
The “reserve status” isn’t propped up by the trading system (although it helps), it is propped up by the network of dollar-debt assets and liabilities held by basically every business and government in the world. Everyone therefore has an incentive for that not to break down, but once it starts to look like the ship could sink, everyone will want to get off ASAP to not be left bagholding assets in a devalued currency and then it definitely will sink.
This is not a prediction with a date assigned to it by the way. It is a certainty that it will eventually happen sometime in the infinite future, but it may not happen this cycle or even this generation. So don’t get too excited about it. As long as you are investing in options and stonks it probably shouldn’t bother you because equities will inflate.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Chicago Mercantile Exchange Updates Circuit Breaker limits to 7%

Here is a link to the update : With an increase in margin requirements ending the week at some brokers @ @ @ @ @ quietly into the weekend , any thoughts on the implications to the cash markets would @ @ @ @

Here is a link to the update:
www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-sp-500-price-limits.html
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
With an increase in margin requirements ending the week at some brokers, and then this dropping quietly into the weekend, any thoughts on the implications to the cash markets would be greatly appreciated.
BD


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Take advantage of the EV goldrush by completing the EV Trifecta

Take advantage of the EV goldrush by completing the EV Trifecta As you may already know , we are currently in the midst of an EV goldrush .
Early adopters , investors , and gamblers will be rewarded for identifying these opportunities and capitalizing on them .
One way to ensure that you gain enough exposure to capitalize on this this gold rush is by completing the EV Trifecta , which are : I will go into a bit more detail on each component of the trifecta : • EV Manufacturers – These are companies that develop and manufacturer EV @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is a lot of EV manufacturers that are going public , some of them will be achieve market dominance , while others will dwindle away *cough* NKLA .
These are some of the EV manufacturers that are available for the public to invest in : TSLA , NIO , XPEV , KNDI , LI , SHLL , PIC , HCA ( C ) , SPA ( Q ) .
Currently , TSLA is the market leader in this industry and also have the first mover advantage , and this is clearly reflected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other EV manufacturers are up and coming and will have lots of run room as EVs become more prevalent in our day to day lives .
• Raw materials for batteries – The logic here is that as demand for EV increase , so will the demand for the raw materials used to create the batteries for the EVs .
Simple economics 101 states that as demand increase and supply decreases , price should increase accordingly .
These are the current raw materials companies that have a spotlight on them : LA ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , PLL .
PLL is the only raw materials company that have a public contract with TSLA and has been halted for weeks because of this news .
PLL will definitely be a hot buy once it unhalts .
• EV charging stations – In order for EVs to be come more prominent in our day to day lives , there needs to be a proper infrastructure that will enable that .
One of the biggest concerns in regards to EV is range anxiety – drivers don ’ t want to be left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vehicles overnight at home .
Having charging stations that are widely available will help combat this risk .
The EV charging station market is relatively untapped , and this market will grow along side the EV market .
The key players in the EV Charging station are SBE , BLNK , SPl .
SPl had an insane run up last week when they announced their EV initiative , their share price increased over 3000 % from $ 1.50 to over $ 40 ( this was short lived though ) .
BLNK is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in regards to the quality of their charging stations , but hopefully they ’ ll improve over time .
SBE is a SPA ( C ) merger to bring Chargepoint public .
Similar to TSLA , Chargepoint is the market leader in the charging station space and also have the first mover advantage .
Chargepoint currently has hundred of thousands of charging stations across North America ( US and Canada ) and is expanding into Europe .
Their products can be purchased via their home website or Amazon and have great reviews online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll ensure you have proper exposure to the EV goldrush .
I ’ m sure I missed a few companies , so please feel free to mention them and add any additional details that I might have missed .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by jalapenojacker
Take advantage of the EV goldrush by completing the EV Trifecta
As you may already know, we are currently in the midst of an EV goldrush. Early adopters, investors, and gamblers will be rewarded for identifying these opportunities and capitalizing on them.
One way to ensure that you gain enough exposure to capitalize on this this gold rush is by completing the EV Trifecta, which are:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
EV Manufacturers Raw materials for batteries EV charging stations
I will go into a bit more detail on each component of the trifecta:
EV Manufacturers – These are companies that develop and manufacturer EV for the public to new purchase. There is a lot of EV manufacturers that are going public, some of them will be achieve market dominance, while others will dwindle away *cough* NKLA. These are some of the EV manufacturers that are available for the public to invest in: TSLA, NIO, XPEV, KNDI, LI, SHLL, PIC, HCA(C), SPA(Q). Currently, TSLA is the market leader in this industry and also have the first mover advantage, and this is clearly reflected in their stock price. All the other EV manufacturers are up and coming and will have lots of run room as EVs become more prevalent in our day to day lives. Raw materials for batteries – The logic here is that as demand for EV increase, so will the demand for the raw materials used to create the batteries for the EVs. Simple economics 101 states that as demand increase and supply decreases, price should increase accordingly. These are the current raw materials companies that have a spotlight on them: LA(C), VAL(E), PLL. PLL is the only raw materials company that have a public contract with TSLA and has been halted for weeks because of this news. PLL will definitely be a hot buy once it unhalts. EV charging stations – In order for EVs to be come more prominent in our day to day lives, there needs to be a proper infrastructure that will enable that. One of the biggest concerns in regards to EV is range anxiety – drivers don’t want to be left stranded if they forget to charge their vehicles overnight at home. Having charging stations that are widely available will help combat this risk. The EV charging station market is relatively untapped, and this market will grow along side the EV market. The key players in the EV Charging station are SBE, BLNK, SPl. SPl had an insane run up last week when they announced their EV initiative, their share price increased over 3000% from $1.50 to over $40 (this was short lived though). BLNK is a mixed bag, there are some complaints in regards to the quality of their charging stations, but hopefully they’ll improve over time. SBE is a SPA(C) merger to bring Chargepoint public. Similar to TSLA, Chargepoint is the market leader in the charging station space and also have the first mover advantage. Chargepoint currently has hundred of thousands of charging stations across North America (US and Canada) and is expanding into Europe. Their products can be purchased via their home website or Amazon and have great reviews online.
By completing the EV Trifecta you’ll ensure you have proper exposure to the EV goldrush. I’m sure I missed a few companies, so please feel free to mention them and add any additional details that I might have missed.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Bloomberg: Nikola founder Milton’s fall reveals what his backers feared

Back in March , long before a short seller would raise questions about electric-truck company Nikola Corp. and hasten its founder ’ s exit , early investors in the company were expressing concerns of their own .
Those investors , led by mutual-fund giant Fidelity Investments , were worried that Trevor Milton , for all his brash visionary talk and Twitter braggadocio , lacked the ability that Elon Musk possesses to deliver these sorts of newfangled products to market .
They lobbied successfully to remove him as CEO before the company ’ s June IPO and for Milton ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to people familiar with the matter .
When the deal was done , Milton only held the title of chairman , the post he resigned this month .
The back-room negotiations show that Milton ’ s past was a concern to investors months before General Motors Co. executives placed a bet on the company in a US $ 2 billion deal carved out after the IPO .
They liked Milton ’ s vision and his ability to raise cash and felt the venture was safeguarded from his shortcomings in operations by his push @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter .
Nonetheless , the events that have unfolded since the short-seller report , with Nikola ’ s stock plunging amid a steady stream of negative headlines , have exposed just how high the risks still were .
Now , it ’ s up to former GM Vice Chairman Steve Girsky , whose blank-check company VectoIQ took Nikola public via reverse merger in June , and Nikola CEO Mark Russell to stabilize the business and regain investor confidence .
The plan with GM was to use Nikola ’ s hot stock and Milton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ build a hydrogen-fueled trucking business with GM ’ s technology .
“ There is obviously someone on the diligence side who isn ’ t going to get a nice bonus this year , ” said Reilly Brennan , founder of the venture capital fund Trucks Inc. “ The best possible thing if you ’ re a shareholder is that Milton is no longer running the company and you have Girsky as chairman and GM providing technology .
”

Back in March, long before a short seller would raise questions about electric-truck company Nikola Corp. and hasten its founder’s exit, early investors in the company were expressing concerns of their own. Those investors, led by mutual-fund giant Fidelity Investments, were worried that Trevor Milton, for all his brash visionary talk and Twitter braggadocio, lacked the ability that Elon Musk possesses to deliver these sorts of newfangled products to market. They lobbied successfully to remove him as CEO before the company’s June IPO and for Milton’s father to leave the board, according to people familiar with the matter. When the deal was done, Milton only held the title of chairman, the post he resigned this month.
The back-room negotiations show that Milton’s past was a concern to investors months before General Motors Co. executives placed a bet on the company in a US$2 billion deal carved out after the IPO. They liked Milton’s vision and his ability to raise cash and felt the venture was safeguarded from his shortcomings in operations by his push upstairs, say people familiar with the matter. Nonetheless, the events that have unfolded since the short-seller report, with Nikola’s stock plunging amid a steady stream of negative headlines, have exposed just how high the risks still were.
Now, it’s up to former GM Vice Chairman Steve Girsky, whose blank-check company VectoIQ took Nikola public via reverse merger in June, and Nikola CEO Mark Russell to stabilize the business and regain investor confidence. The plan with GM was to use Nikola’s hot stock and Milton’s ability to raise money to build a hydrogen-fueled trucking business with GM’s technology.
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“There is obviously someone on the diligence side who isn’t going to get a nice bonus this year,” said Reilly Brennan, founder of the venture capital fund Trucks Inc. “The best possible thing if you’re a shareholder is that Milton is no longer running the company and you have Girsky as chairman and GM providing technology.”
www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nikola-founder-milton-s-fall-reveals-what-his-backers-feared-1.1500376


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Hunter Biden’s Sex Trafficking with laundered money is irrelevant

Christina Bobb discusses California ’ s ongoing energy crisis and the bombshell Senate report looking into Hunter Biden ’ s @ @ @

Christina Bobb discusses California’s ongoing energy crisis and the bombshell Senate report looking into Hunter Biden’s foreign dealings.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Rent Control Is Bad for Renters, but Good for Politicians

Ontario ’ s ever-changing rent control policies prove that politicians are just as committed to flip-flopping as the Minnesota Vikings are to not winning the Super Bowl .
Ontario ’ s modern history of rent control legislation began during the 1975 election campaign , when it was actively promoted by the New Democratic Party ( NDP ) .
This was the stagflation era , and the NDP conveniently ignored Canadian monetary policy as a major contributing factor to price inflation—7.8 percent in 1973 , 11 percent in 1974 , 10.7 percent in 1975—including higher rents , preferring instead to talk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad landlords who imposed exorbitant rent increases.
” However , as William Watson wrote in the Financial Post , “ What protection do renters have against unscrupulous landlords ?
Other landlords—and lots of them.
” That is , of course , if other landlords are not dissuaded from entering the market because the government forbids them from charging market prices .
Flip-flop : the NDP finally conceded this point—sort of—when , in 1992 , they “ tried to encourage the building of more rental units by offering a five-year rent control exemption on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanent.
” Well , temporarily permanent , as we shall see .
While acknowledging this basic economic lesson , the NDP nevertheless continued playing politics by removing rent control only on new units , while maintaining it for current tenants in exchange for their votes , despite the economic consequences .
As Henry Hazlitt wrote , “ Builders or owners of pre-existing apartment houses , finding themselves with restricted profits or perhaps even losses on their old apartments , will have little or no capital to put into new construction .
In addition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from other sources , may fear that the government may at any time find an excuse for imposing rent controls even on the new buildings .
And it often does.
” Sure enough , in 2017 , Ontario ’ s Liberal government imposed rent control on the newer buildings .
Flip-flop : the NDP supported ( It ’ s about Change .
It ’ s about You : A New Democrat Vision for Ontario , p .
23 ) the policy .
Not to be outdone by the NDP ’ s multiple flip-flops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Progressive Conservative Party ’ s ( PCP ) soon-to-be premier Doug Ford said , “ When it comes to rent control , we ’ re going to maintain the status quo.
” Flip-flop # 1 : a few months later , the PCP ’ s majority government deviated from the status quo by exempting new construction from rent control .
Flip-flop # 2 : the PCP is planning to introduce legislation to prohibit rent increases—as opposed to limiting rent increases as per the status quo—for the “ vast majority of families @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world of politics , economic principles are timeless—principles are not subject to flip-flopping .
As economist Thomas Sowell wrote , “ A century ago , virtually any economist could have explained why preventing housing from being built would lead to higher rents , and why rent control would further widen the gap between the amount of housing supplied and the amount demanded.
” And , as Hazlitt wrote , “ The rent-control laws , among their other effects , create ill feeling between landlords who are forced to take minimum returns or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the landlord ’ s failure to make adequate repairs.
” Government laws are supposed to promote conflict resolution , not create conflict .
In an unhampered market , landlords are forced to satisfy tenants or lose them to other landlords .
But when the government intervenes in the market , competition is discouraged and supply is restricted , which means landlords do not need to satisfy their tenants .
If a tenant moves away from a poorly maintained rental unit , the landlord can quickly fill the vacancy due to ( a ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tenants and ( b ) the high demand for rent-controlled units .
Thus , government intervention arbitrarily restricts the supply of housing , whereas competition , if the market is allowed to function , guarantees a sufficient supply to meet the demand and the best possible price for consumers , the tenants .
It is ironic that this basic economic principle is easily observed—falling rents , with tenants in control—as a direct result of the government ’ s economically destructive pandemic policies .
Entrepreneurs , unlike politicians , have skin in the game @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right type of accommodation in the right location , they will not attract tenants , and they will lose money .
In contrast , bleeding-heart politicians profess genuine concern for tenants , but they always stop short of investing their own money in the construction of rental units at what they consider to be affordable prices .
Moreover , they never admit to their own culpability for an insufficient supply of housing , or their own role as bad landlords .
Government policies are usually the product of politicians ’ desire to portray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Therefore , timeless economic principles , which promote social and economic well-being , always take a back seat to the propaganda of vote-seeking politicians .
But that ’ s what we get when we allow economic activities to be directed by people with political skills instead of people with business skills.Author : Following a 23-year career in the Canadian financial industry , Lee Friday has spent many years studying economics , politics , and social issues .
He operates a news site at www.LondonNews1.com

by Lee Friday via Mises
Ontario’s ever-changing rent control policies prove that politicians are just as committed to flip-flopping as the Minnesota Vikings are to not winning the Super Bowl.
Rent Control as a Means of Buying Votes
Ontario’s modern history of rent control legislation began during the 1975 election campaign, when it was actively promoted by the New Democratic Party (NDP). This was the stagflation era, and the NDP conveniently ignored Canadian monetary policy as a major contributing factor to price inflation—7.8 percent in 1973, 11 percent in 1974, 10.7 percent in 1975—including higher rents, preferring instead to talk about “horror stories of individuals and bad landlords who imposed exorbitant rent increases.”
However, as William Watson wrote in the Financial Post, “What protection do renters have against unscrupulous landlords? Other landlords—and lots of them.” That is, of course, if other landlords are not dissuaded from entering the market because the government forbids them from charging market prices. Flip-flop: the NDP finally conceded this point—sort of—when, in 1992, they “tried to encourage the building of more rental units by offering a five-year rent control exemption on new units. The exemption later became permanent.” Well, temporarily permanent, as we shall see.
While acknowledging this basic economic lesson, the NDP nevertheless continued playing politics by removing rent control only on new units, while maintaining it for current tenants in exchange for their votes, despite the economic consequences. As Henry Hazlitt wrote, “Builders or owners of pre-existing apartment houses, finding themselves with restricted profits or perhaps even losses on their old apartments, will have little or no capital to put into new construction. In addition, they, or those with capital from other sources, may fear that the government may at any time find an excuse for imposing rent controls even on the new buildings. And it often does.” Sure enough, in 2017, Ontario’s Liberal government imposed rent control on the newer buildings. Flip-flop: the NDP supported (It’s about Change. It’s about You: A New Democrat Vision for Ontario,p. 23) the policy.
Not to be outdone by the NDP’s multiple flip-flops, during the 2018 Ontario election campaign, the Progressive Conservative Party’s (PCP) soon-to-be premier Doug Ford said, “When it comes to rent control, we’re going to maintain the status quo.” Flip-flop #1: a few months later, the PCP’s majority government deviated from the status quo by exempting new construction from rent control. Flip-flop #2: the PCP is planning to introduce legislation to prohibit rent increases—as opposed to limiting rent increases as per the status quo—for the “vast majority of families” in 2021.
The Economics of Rent Control
In contrast to the world of politics, economic principles are timeless—principles are not subject to flip-flopping. As economist Thomas Sowell wrote, “A century ago, virtually any economist could have explained why preventing housing from being built would lead to higher rents, and why rent control would further widen the gap between the amount of housing supplied and the amount demanded.” And, as Hazlitt wrote, “The rent-control laws, among their other effects, create ill feeling between landlords who are forced to take minimum returns or even losses, and tenants who resent the landlord’s failure to make adequate repairs.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Government laws are supposed to promote conflict resolution, not create conflict.
In an unhampered market, landlords are forced to satisfy tenants or lose them to other landlords. But when the government intervenes in the market, competition is discouraged and supply is restricted, which means landlords do not need to satisfy their tenants. If a tenant moves away from a poorly maintained rental unit, the landlord can quickly fill the vacancy due to (a) the shortage of other housing options for tenants and (b) the high demand for rent-controlled units.
How Rent Control Destroys Choice in Housing
Thus, government intervention arbitrarily restricts the supply of housing, whereas competition, if the market is allowed to function, guarantees a sufficient supply to meet the demand and the best possible price for consumers, the tenants. It is ironic that this basic economic principle is easily observed—falling rents, with tenants in control—as a direct result of the government’s economically destructive pandemic policies.
Entrepreneurs, unlike politicians, have skin in the game. If they do not build the right type of accommodation in the right location, they will not attract tenants, and they will lose money. In contrast, bleeding-heart politicians profess genuine concern for tenants, but they always stop short of investing their own money in the construction of rental units at what they consider to be affordable prices. Moreover, they never admit to their own culpability for an insufficient supply of housing, or their own role as bad landlords.
Government policies are usually the product of politicians’ desire to portray themselves as saviors of the people. Therefore, timeless economic principles, which promote social and economic well-being, always take a back seat to the propaganda of vote-seeking politicians. But that’s what we get when we allow economic activities to be directed by people with political skills instead of people with business skills.Author:
Lee Friday
Following a 23-year career in the Canadian financial industry, Lee Friday has spent many years studying economics, politics, and social issues. He operates a news site at www.LondonNews1.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--MAINSTREAM MEDIA PANICS OVER Q

MAINSTREAM MEDIA PANICS OVER Q

Dr. Dave Janda joins me to discuss the myriad reasons why the mainstream mockingbird whores are in such a tizzy @ @ @ @ @ The media mercenaries claim the Q posts are “ Insane and incoherent ” .
This @ @ @ @ @ , and nothing less .

Dave Janda with Sean on SGTreport
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Dr. Dave Janda joins me to discuss the myriad reasons why the mainstream mockingbird whores are in such a tizzy & panic over Q. The media mercenaries claim the Q posts are “Insane and incoherent”. This friends, is INFORMATION WARFARE, and nothing less.


Economic Concerns Continue

by David Morgan of The Morgan Report The three major U.S. stock indexes all have been falling steadily and the Federal Reserve ’ s answer is to keep pumping $ 1 trillion monthly into the economy to stabilize these virus-stricken markets .
Watch this video on Economic Concerns Continue , then please share with your friends and family on social media and use the caption : Economic Concerns Continue .
I ’ ve Been Helping My Subscribers Weather the Current Economic Mess .
Now I Invite You to Join My Growing Circle of Successful Investors .
The Morgan Report is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ build and preserve Wealth for generations to come .
We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth .
Over 15 years ago , a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom , an honest money system , free market wealth accumulation , and asset protection .
Thus was born The Morgan Report – since then we ’ ve helped 11,000-plus members scattered over the globe in every continent and over 100,000+ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — This Week ’ s View from The Morgan Report .
Through our publication , The Morgan Report , we provide you with ways to achieve greater financial security and wealth in all sorts of environments .
Learn more and become an insider for The Morgan Report , click link below…

by David Morgan of The Morgan Report
The three major U.S. stock indexes all have been falling steadily and the Federal Reserve’s answer is to keep pumping $1 trillion monthly into the economy to stabilize these virus-stricken markets.
Watch this video on Economic Concerns Continue, then please share with your friends and family on social media and use the caption: Economic Concerns Continue.
I’ve Been Helping My Subscribers Weather the Current Economic Mess. Now I Invite You to Join My Growing Circle of Successful Investors.
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation, and asset protection.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Thus was born The Morgan Report – since then we’ve helped 11,000-plus members scattered over the globe in every continent and over 100,000+ e-newsletter subscribers have read our weekly e-newsletter — This Week’s View from The Morgan Report.
Through our publication, The Morgan Report, we provide you with ways to achieve greater financial security and wealth in all sorts of environments.
Learn more and become an insider for The Morgan Report, click link below…
TheMorganReport.com/Join


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--2020 has already set the record for the largest dollar volume of IPOs. Only 9% were actually profita

2020 has already set the record for the largest dollar volume of IPOs. Only 9% were actually profitable.

2020 has already set the record for the largest dollar volume of IPOs .
⁰36 % higher than the peak @ @ @ @ @ 2 more months to go .
⁰Also the largest number of issuances since 2000 and @ @ @ @ @ Only 9 % of all 2020 ’ s IPOs were actually profitable .
pic.twitter.com/XeNZxTQ3Ie

2020 has already set the record for the largest dollar volume of IPOs.
⁰36% higher than the peak of the tech bubble with 2 more months to go.
⁰Also the largest number of issuances since 2000 and 1999.
More importantly:
Only 9% of all 2020’s IPOs were actually profitable. pic.twitter.com/XeNZxTQ3Ie
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Latest from PIIE – US-China phase one tracker: China’s purchases of US goods.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 Latest from PIIE – US-China phase one tracker : China ’ s purchases of US goods .
Yeah , @ @ @ @ @ behind the curve.t.co/uYz11mMOY3 pic.twitter.com/AvsbUv8ejn

🇨🇳🇺🇸 Latest from PIIE – US-China phase one tracker: China’s purchases of US goods.
Yeah, you guessed it.. Still massively behind the curve.t.co/uYz11mMOY3 pic.twitter.com/AvsbUv8ejn
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) September 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Over Half of Small Businesses Worry Social Distancing Will Hurt Their Chances of Survival: Survey

• Small business owners around the U.S. indicate slightly improved sales conditions since the spring , according to a new survey from Verizon Business .
• Still , over half on Main Street remain worried that social distancing measures decrease their survival chances .
Governors across the U.S. are allowing restaurants to reopen , some limited to outdoor dining but others at full capacity .
A new survey shows one reason why there ’ s pressure to get Main Street businesses like dining back to normal : over half ( 55 % ) of small business owners are worried that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capacity will harm their survival chances .
That ’ s according to a new survey from Verizon Business , released on Monday , that was conducted by Morning Consult and focused on 600 small- and medium-size businesses that are currently open or plan to reopen .
The national study was done Aug. 26 through Sept. 4 , 2020 and surveyed businesses in a wide range of industries from construction and retail to restaurants , bars and real estate .
A little over half ( 52 % ) of small business decision makers reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down from 56 % in the previous wave of the survey conducted in April .
Even as business owners worry about the ongoing effects of the public health crisis , many are feeling better about their financial health than in April when shutdowns were spreading across the U.S .
But conditions do remain challenging .
Sixty-seven percent of those taking the survey reported declining sales , which was an improvement from 78 % in April .
If conditions stay the same , 72 % believe they can stay open at least six months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crucial for us to understand the obstacles our small business customers are facing , ” said TJ Fox , President of Verizon Business Markets , in a survey release .

Small business owners around the U.S. indicate slightly improved sales conditions since the spring, according to a new survey from Verizon Business.
Still, over half on Main Street remain worried that social distancing measures decrease their survival chances.
Governors across the U.S. are allowing restaurants to reopen, some limited to outdoor dining but others at full capacity. A new survey shows one reason why there’s pressure to get Main Street businesses like dining back to normal: over half (55%) of small business owners are worried that continued social distancing measures that limit business capacity will harm their survival chances.
That’s according to a new survey from Verizon Business, released on Monday, that was conducted by Morning Consult and focused on 600 small- and medium-size businesses that are currently open or plan to reopen. The national study was done Aug. 26 through Sept. 4, 2020 and surveyed businesses in a wide range of industries from construction and retail to restaurants, bars and real estate.
A little over half (52%) of small business decision makers reported concerns about their own job security, down from 56% in the previous wave of the survey conducted in April.
Even as business owners worry about the ongoing effects of the public health crisis, many are feeling better about their financial health than in April when shutdowns were spreading across the U.S. But conditions do remain challenging. Sixty-seven percent of those taking the survey reported declining sales, which was an improvement from 78% in April.
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If conditions stay the same, 72% believe they can stay open at least six months or longer.
“It’s crucial for us to understand the obstacles our small business customers are facing,” said TJ Fox, President of Verizon Business Markets, in a survey release.
www.cnbc.com/2020/09/28/many-small-businesses-worry-social-distancing-will-kill-them-survey.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming: Mauldin

Amid all 2020 ’ s new problems , it ’ s easy to overlook the old ones .
Yet they are still there and , like a silently spreading virus , silently getting worse .
One such problem is debt , and specifically government debt .
All debt shares one common characteristic .
A bill comes due at some point and , if the borrower doesn ’ t pay , the lender either loses their money or finds someone else to pay .
Governments often do this .
I ’ ve warned for several years now that our growing global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eventually “ reorganize ” it in what I call The Great Reset .
I believe this event is still coming , likely later in this decade .
Recent developments suggest it will be even bigger than I expected .
You could even say I ’ ve been too optimistic .
Today we will see how the federal debt problem has grown considerably worse than my admittedly somewhat gloomy 2020 forecast said to expect .
It will get even worse .
But I end the letter telling you why I ’ m still optimistic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Way back in June 2019 , I wrote a series of letters responding to Ray Dalio on government debt and related issues .
In one of them I showed a series of spending and revenue charts my associate Patrick Watson prepared from Congressional Budget Office projections .
Here is the primary one , exactly as published in June 2019 .
Again , the underlying spending and revenue numbers came straight from CBO .
They make numerous unrealistic assumptions yet still show a bleak picture .
I noted at the time : Under these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to $ 25 trillion sometime in 2021 .
If there is a new president , he or she will not have enough time to change that .
Total debt by the end of the decade will rise to the mid- $ 30-trillion range .
Note that these projections do not include off-budget spending ( more on that later ) which is significant .
The CBO also assumes the bond market can and will absorb almost $ 35 trillion worth of US government debt .
When combined with state and local debt it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State and local debt is already over $ 3 trillion .
It will certainly rise in the next 10 years . )
I also asked what would happen if we had a recession in 2022 .
I assumed revenue and spending numbers would look similar to the Great Recession in the following chart , demonstrating that the deficit would rise to over $ 2 trillion annually and pretty much stay that way for the rest of the decade .
It turns out we had a much deeper recession this year in 2020 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this was my forecast in January 2020 : Now let ’ s fast-forward .
The CBO just published its latest review .
We updated the chart with CBO ’ s new numbers .
It looks a little different now .
The most obvious change is a big spike in the blue “ Mandatory Spending ” area .
That ’ s the unemployment and other benefits triggered by the recession .
Less obvious is a small dip in tax revenue , after which the line continues upward as before .
Even with the optimistic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mandatory spending ( basically entitlements and social programs ) , defense , and only a little of the actual interest costs .
Let ’ s dig into that a little more .
Here is a table summarizing federal revenue .
The 2019 line is actual , the rest are CBO projections .
We see that in this severe recession year , CBO expects federal revenue will drop 4.8 % , then fall another 1.2 % in FY 2021 , followed by a 14.8 % surge in 2022 .
Definitely a rocket-fueled V-shape recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think so .
In 2008 federal revenue fell 1.7 % and then plunged 16.6 % in 2009 .
It didn ’ t fully recover until 2013 , three years after the recession ended .
And that recession was mild compared to this one .
Even more absurdly , CBO projects payroll taxes will actually rise this year despite record-high unemployment .
Now , it ’ s true that the unemployed population tends to be lower-income workers ( so far ) with smaller tax liabilities .
And payrolls were normal until almost halfway through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to actually rise seems unlikely .
It stretches credulity to think total US worker income will be slightly larger in 2021 than in 2019 .
But that ’ s what CBO forecasts .
This matters because these revenue assumptions go into the deficit estimates , which tell us how much federal debt will grow .
( Spending assumptions are also absurd but set them aside for now . )
Note , also , the substantial and uninterrupted revenue growth they project from 2022 through 2030 .
The last remotely comparable period was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because it projects uninterrupted GDP growth , and especially high GDP growth in the next few years .
These assumptions will be important at the conclusion of this letter .
Is CBO all wet ?
I think not .
I think the very smart wonks who make these forecasts try their best .
CBO is mandated by law to make the projections under current law as written and forced to make ( within guidelines ) positive projections .
They don ’ t have the luxury of assuming there might be a recession in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hire a financial planner who used software that was guaranteed to give you an unrealistic projection with nothing but positive assumptions .
Yet that ’ s what we do with the CBO numbers .
In my 2020 forecast letters , published in January as the pandemic was just gaining attention , I revisited the charts above and noted this : When we do have a recession , which again I point out is likely to be after the election ( the only meaningful data point between now and the end of next year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over $ 2 trillion per year and , without meaningful reform , never look back .
That puts US debt at $ 35 trillion+ by the end of 2029 .
According to CBO , this deficit which I gloomily said would be over $ 2 trillion in a recession year will be more like $ 3.3 trillion .
I was an optimist .
What does this do to the national debt ?
First , we have to define some terms .
You ’ ll often see numbers for “ debt held by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exclude amounts the government owes to internal entities like the Social Security trust funds , military pensions , and other “ we owe it to ourselves ” -type funds .
Those trust funds are running down at some point and those bonds will have to be repaid or sold into the market just like any other form of government debt .
There is no such thing as owing it to ourselves .
Not in the real world .
It sounds good if you ’ re a politician trying to ignore or minimize debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approach courts disaster .
“ Total Public Debt ” is more inclusive , and at the end of FY 2019 it was approximately $ 23.2 trillion .
If the latest CBO estimate is correct , it will be well over $ 26 trillion when FY 2020 ends on September 30 .
If we plug that into CBO ’ s revenue and spending estimates through 2030 , we get something like this .
Note again , this is the official CBO data .
You don ’ t often see it this way because they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GDP instead of raw dollars .
Their own numbers now show an almost $ 38 trillion debt at the end of 2029 , far more than the also-alarming $ 35 trillion I estimated earlier this year .
Again , I was an optimist .
But CBO is optimistic , too .
Some very slight and quite reasonable adjustments show the debt will be trillions higher by 2030 .
Below is the same table again with these changes : • We reset revenue to change by the same annual percentages it did in 2008 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That actually raises 2020 revenue a bit , after which it drops considerably lower than the CBO estimates .
• We take CBO ’ s spending projections and add 2 % to each year , which I think is a fair and maybe even conservative expectation .
• We add $ 269 billion in yearly off-budget spending , which is the average since 2000 .
( You can take almost any 10-year period out of the last 20 and get close to that $ 269 billion average .
Some years it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is negative .
But the average is eerily consistent . )
Everything other than the above three changes is the same .
When I asked Patrick to make those assumptions for the next table , we both knew that it would increase the total debt .
I still admit to being quite surprised when I saw the final number .
Here is the result : Under these ( more likely ) assumptions , the debt will breach $ 50 trillion in 2030 .
I bet it happens even sooner , because we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020s without some other event blowing out the numbers—another recession or pandemic , an expensive war , who knows .
But history suggests something will occur , with significant fiscal effect .
For those who prefer cool graphs , here is that $ 50 trillion in a simple line graph : “ Turning Japanese , I think we ’ re turning Japanese , I really think so.
” ( The Vapors ) The CBO projections follow the government ’ s fiscal year , running from October 1 to the end of September .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ little over $ 3.3 trillion for fiscal 2020 .
Note that the CBO can only project current law .
I expect House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Trump will agree to a “ Phase IV ” economic relief package well north of $ 2 trillion .
My Twitter reading last night ( follow me here ) told me Pelosi expects to be negotiating with Trump in the next few days .
Another tweet said her office and Mnuchin ’ s office are talking .
As I wrote last week , without another relief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depression by the end of the year .
Neither party wants that .
But that means adding another $ 2 trillion to the 2021 deficit , pushing it over $ 4 trillion .
Here is where the wonderful www.USdebtclock.org says we are today : You can click on any of the numbers at that website for an explanation and sometimes deeper links .
This is just a small section .
It tracks almost everything .
On the left-hand side of the visual above , the third set of boxes show actual US federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you click on the box labeled “ US Federal Budget Deficit ( Actual ) ” the definition includes off-budget spending .
They project over $ 1 trillion in off-budget spending this year .
Ouch !
And they are not including the $ 2 trillion Phase IV relief package either .
We are so going to blow through $ 30 trillion total debt sometime early next year , making my milder projections wildly wrong .
Just a year ago , I naïvely expected it would be 2025 before we got to $ 30 trillion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 40 trillion by 2030 .
Add an additional $ 2 trillion in Phase IV and the debt will easily be $ 40 trillion by 2025 , and $ 50 trillion before the end of the decade .
The next question is how will we finance all that debt .
Americans and a shrinking group of foreign investors have been surprisingly willing to buy as much paper as Washington can print , even at near zero ( or below zero , adjusted for inflation ) interest rates .
But there are limits , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may draw closer if the global recession drags on .
The most obvious solution is for the Fed to buy whatever amount of bonds Treasury needs to sell using quantitative easing .
Powell is definitely willing .
Depending on how the Fed disposes of its bonds , it might be the practical equivalent of MMT .
And the Fed ’ s willingness will not be lost on a future Congress , which could easily decide to test the limit .
$ 50 trillion could just be the start .
The other question is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have on private markets .
Will it have a “ crowding out ” effect that reduces private lending ?
How will it affect legitimate business and investment activity ?
We ’ ll see the result in lower growth .
Remember , we aren ’ t just talking about federal debt .
States and local governments owe over $ 3 trillion more , plus trillions more in unfunded state pension liabilities , some of which could easily end up at the Fed or Treasury .
Then there are the wildly underfunded pensions ( both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ default and force some kind of federal takeover .
Plus corporate bonds , mortgages , student loans , auto loans , SBA loans… I will probably be referring to this letter in five years when it becomes clear that the debt will be hitting $ 60 trillion or more as the US government takes on state and local liabilities and we find ourselves in another recession .
I will be admitting that my $ 50 trillion projection was way too optimistic .
Sigh .
Double sigh .
You may be a debt-free , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you are also a citizen and taxpayer .
We are collectively in hock up to our ears .
Some of this will end up on your shoulders and mine .
Not a pleasant thought ?
Exactly .
Which is why I expect a Great Reset .
A real economist would probably call it Debt Rationalization .
We will reach a point where it becomes the least-bad alternative .
The Consequences of $ 50 Trillion of US Debt • Raising taxes will not solve the problem .
Of course , it could help reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more of a token .
That is just the reality .
From the Tax Foundation here are the real numbers as of 2017 .
If we double taxes on the top 25 % it would only bring in another $ 1.3 trillion , assuming people didn ’ t change their behavior .
( A 75 % marginal rate plus 4 % Medicare for a 79 % top rate certainly will change behavior . )
A less-shocking 20–25 % increase would only bring in about $ 3-400 billion , and would have to raise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not exactly the rich .
They already think they pay their fair share .
If we raise taxes next year in the teeth of a recession it will only make the recession worse .
If we raise taxes but they don ’ t actually take effect until 2023 and then get phased in ?
That would probably avoid creating a double-dip recession .
One reason we cut corporate taxes was to make US companies more competitive .
It worked .
Do we really want to lose that ?
Not to mention what it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Just saying… • I know I keep saying this , but debt is future income brought forward .
There is a point at which debt becomes a drag on US economic growth , and we have likely reached it .
GDP growth in the US is going to increasingly look like Japan and/or Europe , i.e .
almost nil .
So , the CBO ’ s continued 2 % average growth forecasts will simply get thrown out the window and the deficits will get worse .
Ceteris paribus , ipso facto , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shoot me , I ’ m just the messenger .
• It is possible I ’ m being overly pessimistic about the need for a Great Reset which would include national debt .
Japan reached 250 % debt to GDP a few years ago , since which the Bank of Japan bought around half of total government debt ( back of the napkin numbers ) and Japan is doing just fine .
The European Central Bank is buying anything not nailed down and is muddling through .
• Let me point out that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look similar to MMT ( modern monetary theory ) the actual results and practice are completely different .
I am not persuaded that the US Congress can understand the difference .
Dear gods , I hope they can .
I was explaining this to a friend last night .
He asked me what we should do , somehow believing that there has to be an answer .
There isn ’ t one .
We have no good choices left .
It is as if we are on a trip through a desert and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have enough water to go back .
We don ’ t know where the desert ends , but we have to go forward .
That ’ s the reality .
Unless you want to cut Social Security and Medicare , ignore military pensions , sell the national parks , abolish departments like State and Treasury , cut the defense budget in half along with Homeland Security , Education , Labor , the Justice Department and the FBI , etc .
we are going to have to live with the $ 2 trillion deficits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no better choices .
We are going to learn how much the US can borrow before it all collapses around our ears .
I have no idea where that point is .
It ’ s probably a lot more than any of us currently believe .
Japan is continuing to borrow , as is Italy and the rest of Europe .
And China , etc .
Sigh .
• While all of this is happening , we will continue to see accelerating technological transformation .
I believe within five years we will have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Middle Age , and within 10 to 15 years actually make you younger , while at the same time beating cancer , heart disease , and so on .
It will truly be the age of technological marvels .
There are going to be phenomenal investment opportunities .
We will have to be very conscious of how we handle our portfolios , especially towards the latter half of this decade .
That being said , I am currently making the largest percentage-wise single investment that I ’ ve ever made in a company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t mention it ) that I believe will have phenomenal dominance in its market within 10 years .
It is one of the biggest markets in the world .
Things like that are going to be happening more and more and more .
So yes , I fully understand that $ 50 or $ 60 trillion of US debt is a problem , but I ’ m not going to ignore the opportunities in front of me .
I fully believe that the 100,000+ entrepreneurs who have lost their businesses are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and do nothing .
It is in their DNA to launch new ideas .
They will keep creating opportunities and jobs .
I think of myself as a realistic , rational optimist .
I can admit the problems that we have with our government , debt , and political partisanship and still want to be long humanity and believe in a powerful future .
You should too .
I ’ m going to close here , and apologize for not having enough room for my banana nut cake recipe so many of you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it in a future letter .
But we really do try to limit the words , and this letter is already overly long so let me just say have a great week !
Your wondering why the weights in my gym are heavier this time around analyst ,

BY JOHN MAULDIN
Amid all 2020’s new problems, it’s easy to overlook the old ones. Yet they are still there and, like a silently spreading virus, silently getting worse.
One such problem is debt, and specifically government debt. All debt shares one common characteristic. A bill comes due at some point and, if the borrower doesn’t pay, the lender either loses their money or finds someone else to pay. Governments often do this.
I’ve warned for several years now that our growing global debt load is unpayable and we will eventually “reorganize” it in what I call The Great Reset. I believe this event is still coming, likely later in this decade. Recent developments suggest it will be even bigger than I expected. You could even say I’ve been too optimistic.
Today we will see how the federal debt problem has grown considerably worse than my admittedly somewhat gloomy 2020 forecast said to expect. It will get even worse. But I end the letter telling you why I’m still optimistic and you should be, too.
Absurd Assumptions
Way back in June 2019, I wrote a series of letters responding to Ray Dalio on government debt and related issues. In one of them I showed a series of spending and revenue charts my associate Patrick Watson prepared from Congressional Budget Office projections. Here is the primary one, exactly as published in June 2019.
Again, the underlying spending and revenue numbers came straight from CBO. They make numerous unrealistic assumptions yet still show a bleak picture. I noted at the time:
Under these projections, total federal debt will rise to $25 trillion sometime in 2021. If there is a new president, he or she will not have enough time to change that. Total debt by the end of the decade will rise to the mid-$30-trillion range. Note that these projections do not include off-budget spending (more on that later) which is significant.
The CBO also assumes the bond market can and will absorb almost $35 trillion worth of US government debt. When combined with state and local debt it will easily exceed $35 trillion. (State and local debt is already over $3 trillion. It will certainly rise in the next 10 years.)
I also asked what would happen if we had a recession in 2022. I assumed revenue and spending numbers would look similar to the Great Recession in the following chart, demonstrating that the deficit would rise to over $2 trillion annually and pretty much stay that way for the rest of the decade. It turns out we had a much deeper recession this year in 2020. I was such an optimist… Anyway, this was my forecast in January 2020:
Now let’s fast-forward. The CBO just published its latest review. We updated the chart with CBO’s new numbers. It looks a little different now.
The most obvious change is a big spike in the blue “Mandatory Spending” area. That’s the unemployment and other benefits triggered by the recession. Less obvious is a small dip in tax revenue, after which the line continues upward as before. Even with the optimistic V-shaped recovery assumption, revenues barely cover mandatory spending (basically entitlements and social programs), defense, and only a little of the actual interest costs.
Let’s dig into that a little more. Here is a table summarizing federal revenue. The 2019 line is actual, the rest are CBO projections.
We see that in this severe recession year, CBO expects federal revenue will drop 4.8%, then fall another 1.2% in FY 2021, followed by a 14.8% surge in 2022. Definitely a rocket-fueled V-shape recovery. Realistic? I don’t think so. In 2008 federal revenue fell 1.7% and then plunged 16.6% in 2009. It didn’t fully recover until 2013, three years after the recession ended. And that recession was mild compared to this one.
Even more absurdly, CBO projects payroll taxes will actually rise this year despite record-high unemployment. Now, it’s true that the unemployed population tends to be lower-income workers (so far) with smaller tax liabilities. And payrolls were normal until almost halfway through the fiscal year. But for revenue to actually rise seems unlikely. It stretches credulity to think total US worker income will be slightly larger in 2021 than in 2019. But that’s what CBO forecasts.
This matters because these revenue assumptions go into the deficit estimates, which tell us how much federal debt will grow. (Spending assumptions are also absurd but set them aside for now.) Note, also, the substantial and uninterrupted revenue growth they project from 2022 through 2030. The last remotely comparable period was the 1990s.
It projects this revenue growth because it projects uninterrupted GDP growth, and especially high GDP growth in the next few years. These assumptions will be important at the conclusion of this letter.
Is CBO all wet? I think not. I think the very smart wonks who make these forecasts try their best. CBO is mandated by law to make the projections under current law as written and forced to make (within guidelines) positive projections. They don’t have the luxury of assuming there might be a recession in the future.
You wouldn’t hire a financial planner who used software that was guaranteed to give you an unrealistic projection with nothing but positive assumptions. Yet that’s what we do with the CBO numbers.
Breaching $50 Trillion
In my 2020 forecast letters, published in January as the pandemic was just gaining attention, I revisited the charts above and noted this:
When we do have a recession, which again I point out is likely to be after the election (the only meaningful data point between now and the end of next year), the deficit will explode to over $2 trillion per year and, without meaningful reform, never look back. That puts US debt at $35 trillion+ by the end of 2029.
According to CBO, this deficit which I gloomily said would be over $2 trillion in a recession year will be more like $3.3 trillion. I was an optimist.
What does this do to the national debt? First, we have to define some terms. You’ll often see numbers for “debt held by the public” or something similar. These exclude amounts the government owes to internal entities like the Social Security trust funds, military pensions, and other “we owe it to ourselves”-type funds. Those trust funds are running down at some point and those bonds will have to be repaid or sold into the market just like any other form of government debt. There is no such thing as owing it to ourselves. Not in the real world. It sounds good if you’re a politician trying to ignore or minimize debt. This ostrich-like head in the sand approach courts disaster.
“Total Public Debt” is more inclusive, and at the end of FY 2019 it was approximately $23.2 trillion. If the latest CBO estimate is correct, it will be well over $26 trillion when FY 2020 ends on September 30.
If we plug that into CBO’s revenue and spending estimates through 2030, we get something like this.
Note again, this is the official CBO data. You don’t often see it this way because they usually express it as a percentage of GDP instead of raw dollars. Their own numbers now show an almost $38 trillion debt at the end of 2029, far more than the also-alarming $35 trillion I estimated earlier this year. Again, I was an optimist.
But CBO is optimistic, too. Some very slight and quite reasonable adjustments show the debt will be trillions higher by 2030. Below is the same table again with these changes:
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We reset revenue to change by the same annual percentages it did in 2008 and the following recession and post-recession years. That actually raises 2020 revenue a bit, after which it drops considerably lower than the CBO estimates.
We take CBO’s spending projections and add 2% to each year, which I think is a fair and maybe even conservative expectation.
We add $269 billion in yearly off-budget spending, which is the average since 2000. (You can take almost any 10-year period out of the last 20 and get close to that $269 billion average. Some years it has over $500 billion and some years it is negative. But the average is eerily consistent.)
Everything other than the above three changes is the same. When I asked Patrick to make those assumptions for the next table, we both knew that it would increase the total debt. I still admit to being quite surprised when I saw the final number. Here is the result:
Under these (more likely) assumptions, the debt will breach $50 trillion in 2030. I bet it happens even sooner, because we probably won’t get through the 2020s without some other event blowing out the numbers—another recession or pandemic, an expensive war, who knows. But history suggests something will occur, with significant fiscal effect.
For those who prefer cool graphs, here is that $50 trillion in a simple line graph:
“Turning Japanese, I think we’re turning Japanese, I really think so.” (The Vapors)
But Wait, There’s More!
The CBO projections follow the government’s fiscal year, running from October 1 to the end of September. It is projecting a deficit of a little over $3.3 trillion for fiscal 2020.
Note that the CBO can only project current law. I expect House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Trump will agree to a “Phase IV” economic relief package well north of $2 trillion. My Twitter reading last night (follow me here) told me Pelosi expects to be negotiating with Trump in the next few days. Another tweet said her office and Mnuchin’s office are talking.
As I wrote last week, without another relief package the economy will fall into a depression by the end of the year. Neither party wants that. But that means adding another $2 trillion to the 2021 deficit, pushing it over $4 trillion.
Here is where the wonderful www.USdebtclock.org says we are today:
You can click on any of the numbers at that website for an explanation and sometimes deeper links. This is just a small section. It tracks almost everything. On the left-hand side of the visual above, the third set of boxes show actual US federal spending and the budget deficit. When you click on the box labeled “US Federal Budget Deficit (Actual)” the definition includes off-budget spending. They project over $1 trillion in off-budget spending this year. Ouch! And they are not including the $2 trillion Phase IV relief package either.
We are so going to blow through $30 trillion total debt sometime early next year, making my milder projections wildly wrong. Just a year ago, I naïvely expected it would be 2025 before we got to $30 trillion, and we would be short of $40 trillion by 2030.
Add an additional $2 trillion in Phase IV and the debt will easily be $40 trillion by 2025, and $50 trillion before the end of the decade.
MMT Coming
The next question is how will we finance all that debt. Americans and a shrinking group of foreign investors have been surprisingly willing to buy as much paper as Washington can print, even at near zero (or below zero, adjusted for inflation) interest rates. But there are limits, at least in theory, and they may draw closer if the global recession drags on.
The most obvious solution is for the Fed to buy whatever amount of bonds Treasury needs to sell using quantitative easing. Powell is definitely willing. Depending on how the Fed disposes of its bonds, it might be the practical equivalent of MMT. And the Fed’s willingness will not be lost on a future Congress, which could easily decide to test the limit. $50 trillion could just be the start.
The other question is what effect all this federal debt will have on private markets. Will it have a “crowding out” effect that reduces private lending? How will it affect legitimate business and investment activity? We’ll see the result in lower growth.
Remember, we aren’t just talking about federal debt. States and local governments owe over $3 trillion more, plus trillions more in unfunded state pension liabilities, some of which could easily end up at the Fed or Treasury. Then there are the wildly underfunded pensions (both government and corporate) that could easily default and force some kind of federal takeover. Plus corporate bonds, mortgages, student loans, auto loans, SBA loans…
I will probably be referring to this letter in five years when it becomes clear that the debt will be hitting $60 trillion or more as the US government takes on state and local liabilities and we find ourselves in another recession. I will be admitting that my $50 trillion projection was way too optimistic. Sigh. Double sigh.
You may be a debt-free, prudent investor but the fact remains, you are also a citizen and taxpayer. We are collectively in hock up to our ears. Some of this will end up on your shoulders and mine. Not a pleasant thought? Exactly. Which is why I expect a Great Reset. A real economist would probably call it Debt Rationalization. We will reach a point where it becomes the least-bad alternative.
The Consequences of $50 Trillion of US Debt
Raising taxes will not solve the problem. Of course, it could help reduce the deficit some but it would be more of a token. That is just the reality. From the Tax Foundation here are the real numbers as of 2017.
If we double taxes on the top 25% it would only bring in another $1.3 trillion, assuming people didn’t change their behavior. (A 75% marginal rate plus 4% Medicare for a 79% top rate certainly will change behavior.) A less-shocking 20–25% increase would only bring in about $3-400 billion, and would have to raise rates on incomes above $83,000. Not exactly the rich. They already think they pay their fair share.
If we raise taxes next year in the teeth of a recession it will only make the recession worse. If we raise taxes but they don’t actually take effect until 2023 and then get phased in? That would probably avoid creating a double-dip recession.
One reason we cut corporate taxes was to make US companies more competitive. It worked. Do we really want to lose that? Not to mention what it will likely do to the stock market. Just saying…
I know I keep saying this, but debt is future income brought forward. There is a point at which debt becomes a drag on US economic growth, and we have likely reached it. GDP growth in the US is going to increasingly look like Japan and/or Europe, i.e. almost nil. So, the CBO’s continued 2% average growth forecasts will simply get thrown out the window and the deficits will get worse. Ceteris paribus, ipso facto, QED and FUBAR. Don’t shoot me, I’m just the messenger.
It is possible I’m being overly pessimistic about the need for a Great Reset which would include national debt. Japan reached 250% debt to GDP a few years ago, since which the Bank of Japan bought around half of total government debt (back of the napkin numbers) and Japan is doing just fine. The European Central Bank is buying anything not nailed down and is muddling through.
Let me point out that while the practical results of quantitative easing look similar to MMT (modern monetary theory) the actual results and practice are completely different. I am not persuaded that the US Congress can understand the difference. Dear gods, I hope they can.
I was explaining this to a friend last night. He asked me what we should do, somehow believing that there has to be an answer. There isn’t one. We have no good choices left. It is as if we are on a trip through a desert and know for certain we don’t have enough water to go back. We don’t know where the desert ends, but we have to go forward.
That’s the reality. Unless you want to cut Social Security and Medicare, ignore military pensions, sell the national parks, abolish departments like State and Treasury, cut the defense budget in half along with Homeland Security, Education, Labor, the Justice Department and the FBI, etc. we are going to have to live with the $2 trillion deficits. In good years. There are no better choices.
We are going to learn how much the US can borrow before it all collapses around our ears. I have no idea where that point is. It’s probably a lot more than any of us currently believe. Japan is continuing to borrow, as is Italy and the rest of Europe. And China, etc. Sigh.
While all of this is happening, we will continue to see accelerating technological transformation. I believe within five years we will have something that looks like the Fountain of Middle Age, and within 10 to 15 years actually make you younger, while at the same time beating cancer, heart disease, and so on. It will truly be the age of technological marvels.
There are going to be phenomenal investment opportunities. We will have to be very conscious of how we handle our portfolios, especially towards the latter half of this decade. That being said, I am currently making the largest percentage-wise single investment that I’ve ever made in a company (which is private so I can’t mention it) that I believe will have phenomenal dominance in its market within 10 years. It is one of the biggest markets in the world. Things like that are going to be happening more and more and more.
So yes, I fully understand that $50 or $60 trillion of US debt is a problem, but I’m not going to ignore the opportunities in front of me. I fully believe that the 100,000+ entrepreneurs who have lost their businesses are not simply going to sit on their derrieres and do nothing. It is in their DNA to launch new ideas. They will keep creating opportunities and jobs.
I think of myself as a realistic, rational optimist. I can admit the problems that we have with our government, debt, and political partisanship and still want to be long humanity and believe in a powerful future. You should too.
I’m going to close here, and apologize for not having enough room for my banana nut cake recipe so many of you have asked for. I will get it in a future letter. But we really do try to limit the words, and this letter is already overly long so let me just say have a great week!
Your wondering why the weights in my gym are heavier this time around analyst,
John Mauldin


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-28--Biden claims he attended HBCU; university says otherwise

Don ’ t expect the media to call Biden out on this .
They will protect him , as usual .
From Fox News : Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden alleged on the campaign trail last year that he had jumpstarted his academic career at Delaware State University .
However , according to a new report in The Washington Times , the historically Black college refutes Biden ’ s claims .
The director of news service for Delaware State , Carlos Holmes , said that the former vice president was never a student , though he has made appearances on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the university in Dover .
“ Vice President Biden did not attend DSU , ” Holmes said earlier last week .
“ However he was the Commencement keynote speaker in 2003 and [ 2016 ] , and during the former he was awarded an honorary doctoral degree.
” Biden had made the claim during an October 2019 town hall event held at the historic Wilson High School in Florence , which was founded in 1866 by the Freedmen ’ s Bureau for Black children seeking an education .
“ I got started out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now , I don ’ t want to hear anything negative about Delaware State , ” Biden told the crowd , as shown on video .
“ They ’ re my folks.
” Read the whole story here .

by DCG
Don’t expect the demorats media to call Biden out on this. They will protect him, as usual.
From Fox News: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden alleged on the campaign trail last year that he had jumpstarted his academic career at Delaware State University.
However, according to a new report in The Washington Times, the historically Black college refutes Biden’s claims.
The director of news service for Delaware State, Carlos Holmes, said that the former vice president was never a student, though he has made appearances on campus twice before for commencement speeches at the university in Dover.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Vice President Biden did not attend DSU,” Holmes said earlier last week. “However he was the Commencement keynote speaker in 2003 and [2016], and during the former he was awarded an honorary doctoral degree.”
Biden had made the claim during an October 2019 town hall event held at the historic Wilson High School in Florence, which was founded in 1866 by the Freedmen’s Bureau for Black children seeking an education. “I got started out of an HBCU, Delaware State — now, I don’t want to hear anything negative about Delaware State,” Biden told the crowd, as shown on video. “They’re my folks.”
Read the whole story here.
DCG