investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--Charles Nenner Warns : The Coming Market Crash will be much worse than what people think !! Everyone

Charles Nenner Warns : The Coming Market Crash will be much worse than what people think !! Everyone Should Be Prepared | The Statistics Are Frightening ( Coming Economic Crash Will be WORSE Than Great Depression )

The GDP dropped by 32 % for the second quarter .
Employers have cut 55 million jobs since March , and they have not re-opened all those jobs .
One million people a week are still losing their jobs .
And with so much business closed or crippled , a lot of people close to the financial edge are getting pushed over it .
And massive new homelessness could be a result .
In fact , up to 40 million people in the U.S. could find themselves at risk of eviction over the next several months .
Roughly a third @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a full housing payment as of the first week of August .
Very soon , it is going to be a moving day for 40 million Americans .
They ’ ll be moving from their homes and apartments , from the places they ’ ve raised families and made memories — not by choice , but because the evictions are starting soon .
And now that the expanded unemployment benefits have expired , many renters could lose their homes .
Millions of cases ready to go as soon as the moratorium on evictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the millions ; I can ’ t even imagine the hundreds of millions of collections accounts that will soon be filed .
This is not going to be pretty .
Forty million homeless with nothing .
Sounds like the start of a massive tent city on the mall in DC , just like in the 1930s .
Folks , if you thought you had seen riots so far , just wait until all those people suddenly discover everything they ’ ve been told about The American Dream is a lie .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a big club , and you ain ’ t a member !
” They are either going to continue this Modern Money Theory and keep printing , or they are going to watch civil unrest unequaled in the nation ’ s history .
Massive federal spending has transformed America into a welfare state .
The money printing goes parabolic .
Civil War Cycle Heating up .
The Federal , state , county and city governments of the US and similar governments around the world all caught the borrowing bug 40 plus years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nor the largest corporations , can afford to pay interest on all that debt — so rates will go one way or another be tricked down .
It is much more fun for politicians to SPEND the tax dollars they get than to waste it on paying interest for past-politicians pet projects .
This will continue for some time , and anyone with a good credit score should take advantage of it before it all blows up .
The future has nothing left to pull from .
Everything has already been stolen from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a carefully crafted scam of arbitrage to skim off of everyone ’ s work .
back in 1980 , there were only 132 billion US dollars in existence … while today , there are 3,304 billion dollars in existence … that ’ s 25 times more US dollars in existence today than back in 1980 .
The FED is not the government .
It is not .
The FED wants the interest on money the government borrowed paid .
In fact , if interest rates are raised , and the government can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get the money from you .
You and every other citizen are ultimately responsible for the government ’ s debts .
Suppose that means a gigantic bail-in where the assets of every American are seized to pay that debt .
Oh well .
You see , this is not the first time this has happened .
The last time the government went bankrupt , they stole all the Citizens gold to pay off the FED .
What do you think they will take this time ?
The impending shut-down of college sports and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices – plus this eviction crisis – tell me that things are going from serious to really serious very fast .
Everything points to even more massive fiat money-printing , which makes the 15-percent , one-day plunge in silver and the huge one-day decline in gold particularly surreal .
Obviously , the economic fallout from this thing will be unimaginably worse than anything else .
Elections and giving money away both have consequences .
The government , which is all of us , won ’ t be able to kick this bill down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was 900 per week from Mar to Jul .
That ’ s more than the 400 that a minimum wage worker gets a week .
So why are people struggling with eviction now when they have been receiving double their usual amount for the past few months ?
The real world looks like this : the government stops evictions , so people don ’ t pay their rent for six months .
After six months , when the eviction starts , you jam out of your place and leave your landlord with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it from you .
Find another place from all the vacant properties that were just vacated from someone else who burned their landlord for their back rent , which they didn ’ t pay either .
Easy , happens every day all across the US .
Maybe Americans need to get it through their heads .
You need at least six months of safety cash .
The landlord and the mortgage companies have people they got ta pay too .
Most landlords are mom-and-pop operations .
They have their own mortgages to pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make the monthly payment out of earnings doesn ’ t mean you can afford a home or your rental .
Having the cash to back up the next six months of living expenses does .
We need to stop this outsourcing of personal responsibility .
There ’ s a saying don ’ t bite more than what you can chew .
I think the same should go to spend don ’ t buy more than what you can pay .
Drop the cable , don ’ t eat out , get a pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The point is , shelter is one of the basic needs , and the rent needs to get paid .
Even if it means giving up what really are luxuries .
There are a lot of millennials who stopped paying rent just because their friends are doing it .
A lot of landlords are leaving their properties vacant until this moratorium nonsense is over .
The landlords are also at risk of repo and defaults of their mortgage .
They have property taxes and water bills to pay .
I know landlords who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until this crud is over .
Landlords should get paid or be allowed to evict people .
If the government wants to make payments , then fine .
But you can not force landlords to house people with no payment .
The only winners in this deal will be the hedge funds and vulture capitalists who buy up rental properties that have been defaulted on by their mom-and-pop owners who can ’ t make the payments .
We ’ ve seen this movie before .
We can also read this as 40 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but want to continue to have free housing .
How is this fair on the landlords ?
They bought the rental properties with their savings .
Why should they be forced to provide free housing to tenants that choose not to pay their rent ?
Nobody gifted them those houses , and they got no stimulus check because they earn too much .
How can the government justify forcing these landlords to provide free housing ?
How fair is that ?
If politicians care so much about renters , help them pay the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the burden on the landlords , because not all of them are billion-dollar corporations .
Some people just don ’ t realize that it costs money to own a house , and tenants don ’ t take care of rental properties any more than people take care of rental cars .
When they stop paying rent , the landlord is faced with a huge dilemma .
Is it possible that people will learn a financial lesson from the rage of this pandemic , which is to “ save for a rainy day ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lots of sense .
Doubt many will pay heed to it , unfortunately .
I suspect the biggest problem is the middle-class , who spent above their income level before the pandemic .
Drive through some neighborhoods and see all of the new homes , SUVs , pickups , boats , etc .
Probably most of them with loans with expensive full-covered insurance required .
They maximized their purchasing power by financing everything , and now they can ’ t make payments even with the [ very generous ] $ 600 .
Also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next few months , so even people who did well with the $ 600 bonuses can no way pay a $ 3000 mortgage or even basic living expenses on their state ’ s measly $ 300 regular unemployment .
Who ’ s fault is that ?
Millions of lazy , self-indulgent , and/or irresponsible Americans are their own worst enemies , failing to save for a rainy day while having babies , vacations , lattes at the Starbucks , and unlimited data latest iPhones .
But the governments would like us to view @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evil oligarchy .
I ’ m betting that most of those threatened with “ housing insecurity ” had every opportunity to live a fiscally responsible life but CHOSE to do otherwise and now expect responsible taxpayers to bail them out .
The government is by the people .
We all talk about fiscal responsibility when talking , but we don ’ t want to sacrifice anything ourselves .
We want lower taxes , we want to wage wars , we want to forgive student loans – and after all that , we complain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should consider if the voting public is the problem .
Those living below the poverty line have the highest rates of smoking , obesity , school dropouts , criminality , deadbeat dads , teen pregnancies , single-parent families , lottery ticket purchases , drug/alcohol abuse and ( most expensive of all ) BIRTH RATES among women of childbearing age .
It seems like changing some of those habits could free up quite a bit of saving !
If your state has a base rate of $ 300 and you get the $ 600 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it comes to $ 900/week or $ 22 an hour .
That is three times the minimum wage .
Ironically , those people getting unemployment checks will get more extra money every month than the ones still working would get back in the payroll tax deferral by the end of the year .
The rest of us , the 140 million Americans , will be working to pay for all of this nonsense .
Charles Nenner Warns The Coming Market Crash will be much worse than what people think !
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Today we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market analyst Charles Nenner , President of Charles Nenner Research : www.charlesnenner.com/ free-trial Charles Nenner is a Technical Analyst .
A medical doctor , a geopolitical and financial cycle expert .
He has been an analyst for over 30 years – including providing analysis from his unique models for Goldman Sachs for almost 15 years .
In 2001 , Charles Nenner founded and was president of the Charles Nenner Research Center .
Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities worldwide : hedge funds , banks , brokerage firms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Charles Nenner uses advanced mathematical models/algorithms to identify profitable patterns in the market , such as the Fibonacci ratio , the Golden Mean .
Global business leaders are preparing for a drawn-out U-shaped recession due to the impact of coronavirus and many fear their companies won ’ t survive the pandemic , a survey of thousands of chief executives .
The pandemic sweeping the world has killed nearly 180,000 people , routed financial markets and could trigger the worst economic meltdown since the 1930s Great Depression .
Around 60 percent of chief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – a long period between recession and an upturn – compared with 22 percent who predict a double-dip recession , according to an April 15-19 poll of 3,534 chief executives from 109 countries conducted by YPO , a business leadership network .
The survey found that 11 percent of chief executives see coronavirus as a risk to the survival of their firms , while a further 40 percent say the pandemic poses a severe threat .
“ We have not seen a crisis like this for over a hundred years , and some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Glenn Keys , Executive Chairman of Aspen Medical , a Sydney-based health services firm and YPO member .
Business leaders in the hospitality and restaurant sectors were the most vulnerable with 41 percent of executives saying their firms were at risk of not surviving , while 30 percent in aviation and 19 percent in wholesale and retail sales feared they may go under , the survey found .
There are some beneficiaries , with 10 percent of sector-specific retail and wholesale leaders as well as heads of production firms in agriculture , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positive impact to their revenue .
However , most chief executives expect things to get worse before they get better .
Almost two-thirds of business leaders forecast a negative impact on earnings to continue for more than a year , while a quarter expect their workforce to be down by more than 20 percent a year from now .
“ Across the globe , the mindset of the business leader is clearly that the world has changed in a very short space of time , ” said Scott Mordell , YPO ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unchartered waters , filled with an unprecedented number of pitfalls , that are challenging some businesses ’ very existence.
” If the United States had an economic downturn on the scale of the Great Depression of 1929 , your life would change dramatically .
One out of every four people you know would lose their job .
The unemployment rate would skyrocket to 25 % .
Economic output would plummet by 25 % .
The gross domestic product would fall from a $ 20 trillion level to around $ 14 trillion .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deflation would cause prices to drop .
( The Consumer Price Index fell 27 % between November 1929 and March 1933 , according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics ) .
Trade wars caused international trade to shrink by 65 % .
Could it happen again ?
After the 2007 financial crisis , many people are still worried about a depression reoccurring .
Here are a few reasons why that fear persists—as well as some reasons why they may be wrong .
Unemployment Almost 16 % of the unemployed have been looking for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of March 2020 .
That ’ s significantly below the peak of 45.5 % in 2010 .
Hundreds of thousands of discouraged workers have given up looking for work , and are no longer counted in the unemployed numbers , which drives the labor force participation rate down .
Not everyone has returned to the job market .
Approximately 5 million people are working part-time because they can ’ t find a full-time job .
This is all despite the fact that the unemployment rate is near the 4 % natural rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spooks investors when the Dow Jones Industrial Average swings 400 points up or down a day .
Stock market losses suffered during the 2008 stock market crash were devastating .
The Dow dropped 53 % from its high of 14,043 in October 2007 to 6,594.44 in March 2009 .
It dropped 777 points during intra-day trading on September 29 , 2008—at the time , its largest one-day drop ever .
Investors who lost money are understandably still spooked by that experience , and more extreme volatility in the market in 2020 have added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the top five largest one-day daily percentage losses in the history of the Dow have occurred in 2020 .
By comparison , the worst percentage drop during the 2007-08 crisis came in 11th on the list .
In terms of overall points losses , 2018-20 dominates nearly all of the top spots , but that ’ s primarily because the market ’ s overall size is so much larger than it has been in the past .
The Dow plummeted nearly 3,000 points on March 16 , 2020 , shattering all previous point-loss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also been volatile .
They rose to $ 50 a barrel after plummeting to a 13-year low of $ 26.55 per barrel in January 2016 .
That was just 18 months after a high of $ 100.26 per barrel in June 2014 .
Oil prices were pushed down by an increase in supply from U.S. shale oil producers and the strength of the U.S. dollar .
Volatility makes people want to save , in case prices skyrocket again .
Oil price forecasts have suggested that oil prices could surge to $ 200 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 has caused prices to plunge to $ 20.8 The Financial Crisis of 2008 The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis weakened the economy ’ s structure .
The housing collapse that caused it was about as bad during the recession as it was during the Great Depression .
Many homeowners were upside-down in their mortgages .
They couldn ’ t sell their homes or refinance to take advantage of record-low interest rates .
The housing collapse was caused by mortgage financing reliant upon mortgage-backed securities .
After 2008 , banks stopped purchasing them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result , 90 % of all mortgages were guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.10 The government took ownership , but banks still aren ’ t lending without Fannie or Freddie guarantees .
In effect , the federal government is still supporting the U.S. housing market .
Business credit froze up .
Demand for any asset-backed commercial paper disappeared .
The panic over the value of these commercialized debt obligations led to the financial sector ’ s crisis , causing the intervention of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury .
The governments of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the liquidity for frozen credit markets .
The U.S. debt was downgraded .
Europe wasn ’ t much better .
Even worse , all that addition to the money supply didn ’ t find its way into the regular economy .
Banks sat on cash , unwilling to lend .
They eventually paid back the $ 700 billion bailout .
6 Reasons Why the Depression Could Reoccur Taking into account the factors listed above , there are six main reasons why the United States could see another depression : Stock market crashes can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life savings .
If people have borrowed money to invest , then they will be forced to sell all they have to pay back the loans .
Derivatives make any crash even worse through this leveraging .
Crashes also make it difficult for companies to raise the needed funds to grow .
Finally , a stock market crash can destroy the confidence required to get the economy going again .
Extreme market volatility in 2020 suggests that this remains an ongoing concern .
Lower housing prices and resultant foreclosures resulted in many billions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hedge funds , and other owners of subprime mortgages on the secondary market during the 2007 financial crisis .
Banks continue to hoard cash even though housing prices have increased .
They are still digesting the losses from millions of foreclosures .
Business credit is needed for businesses so they can continue to run on a daily basis .
Without credit , small businesses can ’ t grow , stifling the near 50 % of jobs that they provide .
Bank near-failures frightened depositors into taking out their cash .
Although the Federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some became concerned that this agency would also run out of money .
Commercial banks depend on consumer deposits to fund their day-to-day business , as well as make loans .
High oil prices could return once U.S. shale producers are forced out of business .
Millions of jobs were lost when oil prices plummeted .
At the same time , many consumers bought new cars and SUVs when gas prices were low .
They will be pinched when prices rise again .
Deflation is an even bigger threat .
Low oil and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and so has a 25 % increase in the U.S. dollar that depresses import prices .
These deflationary pressures seem like a boon to consumers , but they make it difficult for businesses to raise wages .
The result could be a downward spiral .
That is similar to what happened during the Great Depression .
Fortunately , deflationary months have been extremely rare since 2009 .
5 Reasons Why the Depression Won ’ t Reoccur There are also six reasons to believe that we are not in danger of seeing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foreclosures have recovered .
Rental rates are relatively high , which has brought investors back to the housing market .
Now that confidence has been restored , housing prices continue to rise .
After median sales prices dropped to a low of $ 208,400 in the first quarter of 2009 , they reached $ 324,500 in the fourth quarter of 2019. Business credit has been affected the most .
The world ’ s central banks have pumped in much of the liquidity needed .
In effect , they have replaced the financial system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlike the contractionary monetary policies that caused the Great Depression .
Strategies to Prepare to Survive and Thrive in the Next Recession Recessions are going to happen , and there is nothing any of us can do about it .
But the critical take away is that we need to be prepared .
Is it possible to recession-proof your career and finances ?
And if so , how can you do that ?
Debt is a problem even when the economy is booming .
But it ’ s an even bigger problem during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the possibility of losing your job or experiencing a serious decline in the value of your investments .
Whether credit cards , student loans , medical debts , or any other type of financing , the more you can eliminate , the fewer payments you ’ ll have .
That will make the loss of your job that much easier to deal with , especially if you ’ re unemployed for several months .
If you can ’ t pay off all your debts , pay off or pay down as many as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay , the stronger your financial position will be if your personal financial situation starts to look shaky .
There are two primary reasons to stock up on cash in advance of a recession , and they ’ re equally important .
The first is preparing for emergencies .
Emergencies can happen in expanding economies , but they tend to be more frequent in recessions .
Having a well-stocked emergency fund is the best way to prepare in advance .
It ’ s one of the best strategies for preventing small financial problems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a serious problem in America .
A survey done by GoBankingRates late in 2019 found that 69 % of Americans have less than $ 1,000 in savings .
That includes 45 % who report having no savings that all .
If you have little or no cash , even small unexpected expenses can turn into financial disasters .
The problem extends to retirement savings as well .
A study done by Northwestern Mutual revealed that 22 % Americans have less than $ 5,000 saved for retirement , while 15 % have no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s 37 % of the adult population .
If you ’ ve never been able to accumulate much cash in the past , there are several ways to make it happen .
Stop buying stuff .
Start selling stuff you don ’ t need .
Cancel any subscriptions or services you don ’ t need .
And make sure you redirect the savings from all those efforts into loading up your emergency fund .
The second reason the stock up on cash has to do with the next recession strategy… When the financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When I used to work with people in my financial planning practice , I ’ d see and hear many wanting to sell everything and move into cash .
That ’ s the absolute worst strategy , and I spent a lot of time walking people off that ledge .
It ’ s understandable to want to go to cash if you ’ re retired .
But if you ’ re still working , and contributing to your 401 ( k ) plan , you need to keep investing for the long-term .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ account is most likely their largest asset for retirement , ” says Matthew Jackson , President of Fort Collins , Colorado-based Solid Wealth Advisors , LLC , and # 1 Best-Selling Author of “ The Retirement Dreammaker ” .
“ Getting regular help rebalancing a workplace retirement account ’ s asset allocation based on current market conditions and individual tolerance to risk is important .
There is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all investment strategy .
Also , beware of target date funds .
Their asset allocations may simply be based on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market conditions and individual tolerances to risk.
” This also gets back to the cash is king concept .
If you ’ ve been stocking up on cash , you ’ ll have the funds available to buy into the market .
That ’ s more important in recessions than ever , because you can buy stocks at depressed prices .
“ The investment strategy that works best in a recession is to have little to no consumer debt , own cash , and have the guts to buy at the bottom of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , founder of The Blackmont Group and creator of 401kwealthguide.com .
“ Economists aplenty have opined that a recession is coming in the next 18 months or so .
The truth is a recession is always coming .
The bottom line is that you will want to have made changes to your investment portfolio prior to the decline.
” The facts support that strategy .
Going back to 1926 , the average stock market loss during bear markets – which generally correspond to recessions – has been 38 % , over an average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets coming out of those bear markets have produced average cumulative returns of 339 % , over 6.6 years .
That ’ s a surge you don ’ t want to miss due to a short-term market decline .
For example , after the S & P 500 lost 36 % in 2008 , it gained 26 % in 2009 .
It is not possible to time the market , but if you were investing through the 2008 downturn , you would have been well-positioned to take advantage of big gains in 2009 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In hindsight – which admittedly , no one had in 2008 – it was the best year to buy stocks in decades .
This is all about improving your skills and qualifications .
If a recession is coming , one of the very best strategies to keep yourself relevant on the career front is to improve your abilities .
That might mean getting an advanced degree .
But it can also mean taking online courses or getting an important certification – anything that could help your career move forward .
In a nutshell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it takes to improve your value in the job market .
In the process , you may be preparing for a new job , or even a whole new career .
Either way , preparing in advance is the best way to avoid being blindsided by a job loss during a recession .
“ Side hustle ” is a popular term , but I prefer to think of it as a side business .
Under the best scenario , it ’ s the type of business that will be earning you additional income @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – like working at your regular job .
It could be an online or off-line business , but it ’ s something you ’ ll create as a way to generate extra income and diversify your income sources .
It may be that at the beginning you ’ re only making a couple hundred dollars per month .
But as you roll forward , you ’ ll eventually get up to $ 1,000 per month .
If you lose your job , your side hustle will be an important additional revenue stream .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ severance pay or unemployment benefits .
But if you can build a side hustle to the point where you ’ re earning at least $ 1,000 per month while you still hold your full-time job , the loss of that job may give you the extra time you need to turn that side hustle in the something bigger .
It could possibly even become your next primary occupation .
If a recession is coming , this is absolutely not the time to panic .
Instead , focus your time , effort , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to thrive even if the economy does head south .
In the end , the next recession will only be temporary .
You can decide now to take steps to position yourself to prosper when it ends .
If you look at what ’ s happened with the stock market since the last crash in 2008 , it ’ s obvious the steps you take to prepare now will produce a big payoff later .
Ignore the headlines , and make your plans !

by Amy S.
The GDP dropped by 32% for the second quarter. Employers have cut 55 million jobs since March, and they have not re-opened all those jobs. One million people a week are still losing their jobs. And with so much business closed or crippled, a lot of people close to the financial edge are getting pushed over it. And massive new homelessness could be a result. In fact, up to 40 million people in the U.S. could find themselves at risk of eviction over the next several months. Roughly a third of all renters nationwide failed to make a full housing payment as of the first week of August. Very soon, it is going to be a moving day for 40 million Americans.
They’ll be moving from their homes and apartments, from the places they’ve raised families and made memories — not by choice, but because the evictions are starting soon. And now that the expanded unemployment benefits have expired, many renters could lose their homes. Millions of cases ready to go as soon as the moratorium on evictions ends. These people are tapped out by the millions; I can’t even imagine the hundreds of millions of collections accounts that will soon be filed.
This is not going to be pretty. Forty million homeless with nothing. Sounds like the start of a massive tent city on the mall in DC, just like in the 1930s. Folks, if you thought you had seen riots so far, just wait until all those people suddenly discover everything they’ve been told about The American Dream is a lie. As Carlin said, “It’s a big club, and you ain’t a member!” They are either going to continue this Modern Money Theory and keep printing, or they are going to watch civil unrest unequaled in the nation’s history. Massive federal spending has transformed America into a welfare state.
The money printing goes parabolic. Civil War Cycle Heating up. The Federal, state, county and city governments of the US and similar governments around the world all caught the borrowing bug 40 plus years ago, and now none of them, nor the largest corporations, can afford to pay interest on all that debt — so rates will go one way or another be tricked down. It is much more fun for politicians to SPEND the tax dollars they get than to waste it on paying interest for past-politicians pet projects.
This will continue for some time, and anyone with a good credit score should take advantage of it before it all blows up. The future has nothing left to pull from. Everything has already been stolen from your kids. Central bank Economics is a carefully crafted scam of arbitrage to skim off of everyone’s work. back in 1980, there were only 132 billion US dollars in existence … while today, there are 3,304 billion dollars in existence … that’s 25 times more US dollars in existence today than back in 1980. The FED is not the government. It is not. The FED wants the interest on money the government borrowed paid. In fact, if interest rates are raised, and the government cannot service the debt, the FED will get the money from you.
You and every other citizen are ultimately responsible for the government’s debts. Suppose that means a gigantic bail-in where the assets of every American are seized to pay that debt. Oh well. You see, this is not the first time this has happened. The last time the government went bankrupt, they stole all the Citizens gold to pay off the FED. What do you think they will take this time? The impending shut-down of college sports and the brazen knock-down of gold and silver prices – plus this eviction crisis – tell me that things are going from serious to really serious very fast. Everything points to even more massive fiat money-printing, which makes the 15-percent, one-day plunge in silver and the huge one-day decline in gold particularly surreal. Obviously, the economic fallout from this thing will be unimaginably worse than anything else. Elections and giving money away both have consequences.
The government, which is all of us, won’t be able to kick this bill down the road forever. The unemployment benefit was 900 per week from Mar to Jul. That’s more than the 400 that a minimum wage worker gets a week. So why are people struggling with eviction now when they have been receiving double their usual amount for the past few months? The real world looks like this: the government stops evictions, so people don’t pay their rent for six months.
After six months, when the eviction starts, you jam out of your place and leave your landlord with the unpaid rent and no way to get it from you. Find another place from all the vacant properties that were just vacated from someone else who burned their landlord for their back rent, which they didn’t pay either. Easy, happens every day all across the US. Maybe Americans need to get it through their heads. You need at least six months of safety cash. The landlord and the mortgage companies have people they gotta pay too. Most landlords are mom-and-pop operations.
They have their own mortgages to pay on the property. Being able to make the monthly payment out of earnings doesn’t mean you can afford a home or your rental. Having the cash to back up the next six months of living expenses does. We need to stop this outsourcing of personal responsibility. There’s a saying don’t bite more than what you can chew. I think the same should go to spend don’t buy more than what you can pay. Drop the cable, don’t eat out, get a pay as you go phone, etc. The point is, shelter is one of the basic needs, and the rent needs to get paid. Even if it means giving up what really are luxuries. There are a lot of millennials who stopped paying rent just because their friends are doing it. A lot of landlords are leaving their properties vacant until this moratorium nonsense is over. The landlords are also at risk of repo and defaults of their mortgage.
They have property taxes and water bills to pay. I know landlords who are not renting out otherwise available properties until this crud is over. Landlords should get paid or be allowed to evict people. If the government wants to make payments, then fine. But you cannot force landlords to house people with no payment. The only winners in this deal will be the hedge funds and vulture capitalists who buy up rental properties that have been defaulted on by their mom-and-pop owners who can’t make the payments. We’ve seen this movie before.
We can also read this as 40 million people are not paying their rents, but want to continue to have free housing. How is this fair on the landlords? They bought the rental properties with their savings. Why should they be forced to provide free housing to tenants that choose not to pay their rent? Nobody gifted them those houses, and they got no stimulus check because they earn too much. How can the government justify forcing these landlords to provide free housing? How fair is that? If politicians care so much about renters, help them pay the rent. Don’t shift all the burden on the landlords, because not all of them are billion-dollar corporations. Some people just don’t realize that it costs money to own a house, and tenants don’t take care of rental properties any more than people take care of rental cars.
When they stop paying rent, the landlord is faced with a huge dilemma. Is it possible that people will learn a financial lesson from the rage of this pandemic, which is to “save for a rainy day”? It sounds antiquated but still makes lots of sense. Doubt many will pay heed to it, unfortunately. I suspect the biggest problem is the middle-class, who spent above their income level before the pandemic. Drive through some neighborhoods and see all of the new homes, SUVs, pickups, boats, etc.
Probably most of them with loans with expensive full-covered insurance required. They maximized their purchasing power by financing everything, and now they can’t make payments even with the [very generous] $600. Also, these forecasts are forward-looking into the next few months, so even people who did well with the $600 bonuses can no way pay a $3000 mortgage or even basic living expenses on their state’s measly $300 regular unemployment. Who’s fault is that? Millions of lazy, self-indulgent, and/or irresponsible Americans are their own worst enemies, failing to save for a rainy day while having babies, vacations, lattes at the Starbucks, and unlimited data latest iPhones. But the governments would like us to view them all as feckless victims of an evil oligarchy. I’m betting that most of those threatened with “housing insecurity” had every opportunity to live a fiscally responsible life but CHOSE to do otherwise and now expect responsible taxpayers to bail them out.
The government is by the people. We all talk about fiscal responsibility when talking, but we don’t want to sacrifice anything ourselves. We want lower taxes, we want to wage wars, we want to forgive student loans – and after all that, we complain about the government is broke. We should consider if the voting public is the problem. Those living below the poverty line have the highest rates of smoking, obesity, school dropouts, criminality, deadbeat dads, teen pregnancies, single-parent families, lottery ticket purchases, drug/alcohol abuse and (most expensive of all) BIRTH RATES among women of childbearing age. It seems like changing some of those habits could free up quite a bit of saving! If your state has a base rate of $300 and you get the $600 COVID bonus on top of that, it comes to $900/week or $22 an hour. That is three times the minimum wage. Ironically, those people getting unemployment checks will get more extra money every month than the ones still working would get back in the payroll tax deferral by the end of the year. The rest of us, the 140 million Americans, will be working to pay for all of this nonsense.
Charles Nenner Warns The Coming Market Crash will be much worse than what people think !! Today we have a distinguished guest, the legendary market analyst Charles Nenner, President of Charles Nenner Research : www.charlesnenner.com/ free-trial Charles Nenner is a Technical Analyst. A medical doctor, a geopolitical and financial cycle expert. He has been an analyst for over 30 years – including providing analysis from his unique models for Goldman Sachs for almost 15 years. In 2001, Charles Nenner founded and was president of the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities worldwide: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Charles Nenner uses advanced mathematical models/algorithms to identify profitable patterns in the market, such as the Fibonacci ratio, the Golden Mean.
Global executives prepare for another Great Depression
Global business leaders are preparing for a drawn-out U-shaped recession due to the impact of coronavirus and many fear their companies won’t survive the pandemic, a survey of thousands of chief executives.
The pandemic sweeping the world has killed nearly 180,000 people, routed financial markets and could trigger the worst economic meltdown since the 1930s Great Depression.
Around 60 percent of chief executives are preparing for a U-shaped recovery – a long period between recession and an upturn – compared with 22 percent who predict a double-dip recession, according to an April 15-19 poll of 3,534 chief executives from 109 countries conducted by YPO, a business leadership network.
The survey found that 11 percent of chief executives see coronavirus as a risk to the survival of their firms, while a further 40 percent say the pandemic poses a severe threat.
“We have not seen a crisis like this for over a hundred years, and some household names will not survive,” said Glenn Keys, Executive Chairman of Aspen Medical, a Sydney-based health services firm and YPO member.
Business leaders in the hospitality and restaurant sectors were the most vulnerable with 41 percent of executives saying their firms were at risk of not surviving, while 30 percent in aviation and 19 percent in wholesale and retail sales feared they may go under, the survey found.
There are some beneficiaries, with 10 percent of sector-specific retail and wholesale leaders as well as heads of production firms in agriculture, factories, mines and utilities reporting a positive impact to their revenue.
However, most chief executives expect things to get worse before they get better.
Almost two-thirds of business leaders forecast a negative impact on earnings to continue for more than a year, while a quarter expect their workforce to be down by more than 20 percent a year from now.
“Across the globe, the mindset of the business leader is clearly that the world has changed in a very short space of time,” said Scott Mordell, YPO’s chief executive.
“We are in unchartered waters, filled with an unprecedented number of pitfalls, that are challenging some businesses’ very existence.”
If the United States had an economic downturn on the scale of the Great Depression of 1929, your life would change dramatically. One out of every four people you know would lose their job. The unemployment rate would skyrocket to 25%.
Economic output would plummet by 25%. The gross domestic product would fall from a $20 trillion level to around $14 trillion. Instead of inflation at about 2%, deflation would cause prices to drop. (The Consumer Price Index fell 27% between November 1929 and March 1933, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Trade wars caused international trade to shrink by 65%.
Could it happen again? After the 2007 financial crisis, many people are still worried about a depression reoccurring. Here are a few reasons why that fear persists—as well as some reasons why they may be wrong.
Unemployment
Almost 16% of the unemployed have been looking for work for six months or more, as of March 2020. That’s significantly below the peak of 45.5% in 2010. Hundreds of thousands of discouraged workers have given up looking for work, and are no longer counted in the unemployed numbers, which drives the labor force participation rate down. Not everyone has returned to the job market. Approximately 5 million people are working part-time because they can’t find a full-time job. This is all despite the fact that the unemployment rate is near the 4% natural rate of unemployment.
Stock Market Volatility
Volatility spooks investors when the Dow Jones Industrial Average swings 400 points up or down a day. Stock market losses suffered during the 2008 stock market crash were devastating. The Dow dropped 53% from its high of 14,043 in October 2007 to 6,594.44 in March 2009. It dropped 777 points during intra-day trading on September 29, 2008—at the time, its largest one-day drop ever. Investors who lost money are understandably still spooked by that experience, and more extreme volatility in the market in 2020 have added fuel to the fire.
Two of the top five largest one-day daily percentage losses in the history of the Dow have occurred in 2020. By comparison, the worst percentage drop during the 2007-08 crisis came in 11th on the list. In terms of overall points losses, 2018-20 dominates nearly all of the top spots, but that’s primarily because the market’s overall size is so much larger than it has been in the past. The Dow plummeted nearly 3,000 points on March 16, 2020, shattering all previous point-loss records.
Oil Prices
Oil prices have also been volatile. They rose to $50 a barrel after plummeting to a 13-year low of $26.55 per barrel in January 2016. That was just 18 months after a high of $100.26 per barrel in June 2014. Oil prices were pushed down by an increase in supply from U.S. shale oil producers and the strength of the U.S. dollar. Volatility makes people want to save, in case prices skyrocket again. Oil price forecasts have suggested that oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel at some point. Market volatility in 2020 has caused prices to plunge to $20.8
The Financial Crisis of 2008
The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis weakened the economy’s structure. The housing collapse that caused it was about as bad during the recession as it was during the Great Depression.
Many homeowners were upside-down in their mortgages. They couldn’t sell their homes or refinance to take advantage of record-low interest rates. The housing collapse was caused by mortgage financing reliant upon mortgage-backed securities. After 2008, banks stopped purchasing them on the secondary market. As a result, 90% of all mortgages were guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.10 The government took ownership, but banks still aren’t lending without Fannie or Freddie guarantees. In effect, the federal government is still supporting the U.S. housing market.
Business credit froze up. Demand for any asset-backed commercial paper disappeared. The panic over the value of these commercialized debt obligations led to the financial sector’s crisis, causing the intervention of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The governments of the world stepped in to provide all the liquidity for frozen credit markets. The U.S. debt was downgraded. Europe wasn’t much better. Even worse, all that addition to the money supply didn’t find its way into the regular economy. Banks sat on cash, unwilling to lend. They eventually paid back the $700 billion bailout.
6 Reasons Why the Depression Could Reoccur
Taking into account the factors listed above, there are six main reasons why the United States could see another depression:
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Stock market crashes can cause depressions by wiping out investors’ life savings. If people have borrowed money to invest, then they will be forced to sell all they have to pay back the loans. Derivatives make any crash even worse through this leveraging. Crashes also make it difficult for companies to raise the needed funds to grow. Finally, a stock market crash can destroy the confidence required to get the economy going again. Extreme market volatility in 2020 suggests that this remains an ongoing concern.
Lower housing prices and resultant foreclosures resulted in many billions of dollars in losses to banks, hedge funds, and other owners of subprime mortgages on the secondary market during the 2007 financial crisis. Banks continue to hoard cash even though housing prices have increased. They are still digesting the losses from millions of foreclosures.
Business credit is needed for businesses so they can continue to run on a daily basis. Without credit, small businesses can’t grow, stifling the near 50% of jobs that they provide.
Bank near-failures frightened depositors into taking out their cash. Although the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures these deposits, some became concerned that this agency would also run out of money. Commercial banks depend on consumer deposits to fund their day-to-day business, as well as make loans.
High oil prices could return once U.S. shale producers are forced out of business. Millions of jobs were lost when oil prices plummeted. At the same time, many consumers bought new cars and SUVs when gas prices were low. They will be pinched when prices rise again.
Deflation is an even bigger threat. Low oil and gas prices have had a deflationary impact, and so has a 25% increase in the U.S. dollar that depresses import prices. These deflationary pressures seem like a boon to consumers, but they make it difficult for businesses to raise wages. The result could be a downward spiral. That is similar to what happened during the Great Depression. Fortunately, deflationary months have been extremely rare since 2009.
5 Reasons Why the Depression Won’t Reoccur
There are also six reasons to believe that we are not in danger of seeing a depression anytime soon.
Housing prices and foreclosures have recovered. Rental rates are relatively high, which has brought investors back to the housing market. Now that confidence has been restored, housing prices continue to rise. After median sales prices dropped to a low of $208,400 in the first quarter of 2009, they reached $324,500 in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Business credit has been affected the most. The world’s central banks have pumped in much of the liquidity needed. In effect, they have replaced the financial system itself.
Monetary policy is expansionary, unlike the contractionary monetary policies that caused the Great Depression.
Strategies to Prepare to Survive and Thrive in the Next Recession
Recessions are going to happen, and there is nothing any of us can do about it. But the critical take away is that we need to be prepared. Is it possible to recession-proof your career and finances? And if so, how can you do that?
1. Pay Off All Debt
Debt is a problem even when the economy is booming. But it’s an even bigger problem during recessions, when you may be facing the possibility of losing your job or experiencing a serious decline in the value of your investments.
Whether credit cards, student loans, medical debts, or any other type of financing, the more you can eliminate, the fewer payments you’ll have. That will make the loss of your job that much easier to deal with, especially if you’re unemployed for several months.
If you can’t pay off all your debts, pay off or pay down as many as you can. The more you can pay, the stronger your financial position will be if your personal financial situation starts to look shaky.
2. Cash is King
There are two primary reasons to stock up on cash in advance of a recession, and they’re equally important.
The first is preparing for emergencies. Emergencies can happen in expanding economies, but they tend to be more frequent in recessions. Having a well-stocked emergency fund is the best way to prepare in advance. It’s one of the best strategies for preventing small financial problems returning to the big ones.
This is a serious problem in America. A survey done by GoBankingRates late in 2019 found that 69% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings. That includes 45% who report having no savings that all. If you have little or no cash, even small unexpected expenses can turn into financial disasters.
The problem extends to retirement savings as well. A study done by Northwestern Mutual revealed that 22% Americans have less than $5,000 saved for retirement, while 15% have no retirement savings at all. That’s 37% of the adult population.
If you’ve never been able to accumulate much cash in the past, there are several ways to make it happen. Stop buying stuff. Start selling stuff you don’t need. Cancel any subscriptions or services you don’t need. And make sure you redirect the savings from all those efforts into loading up your emergency fund.
The second reason the stock up on cash has to do with the next recession strategy…
3. Keep Investing
When the financial markets get shaky, people panic. When I used to work with people in my financial planning practice, I’d see and hear many wanting to sell everything and move into cash. That’s the absolute worst strategy, and I spent a lot of time walking people off that ledge.
It’s understandable to want to go to cash if you’re retired. But if you’re still working, and contributing to your 401(k) plan, you need to keep investing for the long-term.
“A person’s workplace retirement account is most likely their largest asset for retirement,” says Matthew Jackson, President of Fort Collins, Colorado-based Solid Wealth Advisors, LLC, and #1 Best-Selling Author of “The Retirement Dreammaker”. “Getting regular help rebalancing a workplace retirement account’s asset allocation based on current market conditions and individual tolerance to risk is important. There is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all investment strategy. Also, beware of target date funds. Their asset allocations may simply be based on a person’s age rather than current market conditions and individual tolerances to risk.”
This also gets back to the cash is king concept. If you’ve been stocking up on cash, you’ll have the funds available to buy into the market. That’s more important in recessions than ever, because you can buy stocks at depressed prices.
“The investment strategy that works best in a recession is to have little to no consumer debt, own cash, and have the guts to buy at the bottom of the dip,” advises Anthony Montenegro, founder of The Blackmont Group and creator of 401kwealthguide.com. “Economists aplenty have opined that a recession is coming in the next 18 months or so. The truth is a recession is always coming. The bottom line is that you will want to have made changes to your investment portfolio prior to the decline.”
The facts support that strategy. Going back to 1926, the average stock market loss during bear markets – which generally correspond to recessions – has been 38%, over an average of 1.3 years. But the bull markets coming out of those bear markets have produced average cumulative returns of 339%, over 6.6 years. That’s a surge you don’t want to miss due to a short-term market decline.
For example, after the S&P 500 lost 36% in 2008, it gained 26% in 2009. It is not possible to time the market, but if you were investing through the 2008 downturn, you would have been well-positioned to take advantage of big gains in 2009, and the years that followed.
In hindsight – which admittedly, no one had in 2008 – it was the best year to buy stocks in decades.
4. Building Your “IA’s” – Intellectual Assets
This is all about improving your skills and qualifications. If a recession is coming, one of the very best strategies to keep yourself relevant on the career front is to improve your abilities. That might mean getting an advanced degree. But it can also mean taking online courses or getting an important certification – anything that could help your career move forward.
In a nutshell, you’ll be doing whatever it takes to improve your value in the job market.
In the process, you may be preparing for a new job, or even a whole new career. Either way, preparing in advance is the best way to avoid being blindsided by a job loss during a recession.
5. Create a Side Hustle
“Side hustle” is a popular term, but I prefer to think of it as a side business. Under the best scenario, it’s the type of business that will be earning you additional income while you’re doing other things – like working at your regular job.
It could be an online or off-line business, but it’s something you’ll create as a way to generate extra income and diversify your income sources.
It may be that at the beginning you’re only making a couple hundred dollars per month. But as you roll forward, you’ll eventually get up to $1,000 per month. If you lose your job, your side hustle will be an important additional revenue stream. It will supplement other sources, like severance pay or unemployment benefits.
But if you can build a side hustle to the point where you’re earning at least $1,000 per month while you still hold your full-time job, the loss of that job may give you the extra time you need to turn that side hustle in the something bigger. It could possibly even become your next primary occupation.
Conclusion
If a recession is coming, this is absolutely not the time to panic. Instead, focus your time, effort, and energy on doing what’s needed to thrive even if the economy does head south.
In the end, the next recession will only be temporary. You can decide now to take steps to position yourself to prosper when it ends.
If you look at what’s happened with the stock market since the last crash in 2008, it’s obvious the steps you take to prepare now will produce a big payoff later. Ignore the headlines, and make your plans!


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--Report: Belarus president says no new elections until you kill him

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said there would be no new election after a disputed and controversial August 9th vote ‘ @ @ @ @ @ Aired on 8/17/2020 .

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said there would be no new election after a disputed and controversial August 9th vote ‘until you kill me.’ Aired on 8/17/2020.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--Massive backlash forces Michigan university to back down from enforcing medical device to monitor co

Massive backlash forces Michigan university to back down from enforcing medical device to monitor coronavirus symptoms

( Natural News ) Earlier this month , Oakland University in Rochester Hills , Michigan , hatched out a plan to require students to wear a “ BioButton ” while they are on campus to track whether or not they have the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) .
However , thanks to massive backlash from the student population , the plan to mandate the medical device ’ s use was scrapped .
The BioButton , made by Colorado-based medical technology company BioIntelliSense , is a wearable single-use device that monitors a person ’ s vital statistics , such as their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperature .
It ’ s meant to be worn on the chest and it can be connected to a person ’ s mobile device .
“ It provides additional information for health screening , ” said the university in a now-deleted post on their website .
“ The button will be used in conjunction with the daily health assessment to determine if you are able to participate in campus activities .
The individual data will remain private to the wearer and is not shared with others.
” According to David Stone , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using the BioButton provides several advantages for residents , such as the device ’ s ability to notice abnormalities in people ’ s vital signs before they even take a test for COVID-19 .
“ That would limit the potential for outbreaks on campus , and that ’ s what we ’ re looking for , ” said Stone .
Many students have raised concerns about their privacy being violated and their data possibly being stolen by BioIntelliSense , but Stone claims that the university doesn ’ t even have access to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates whether a person is on “ green alert ” or “ red alert.
” People whose status is green are free to go about their business .
But if the university ’ s health services department receives a “ red ” alert , an official will call the wearer to ask them questions about their health .
Stone also touted that the BioButton would be helpful for the university ’ s contact tracing efforts because it can tell people if they have had significant contact with somebody who tested positive for COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of institutions trying to use the coronavirus pandemic to advance their Orwellian coronavirus policies .
Learn about one such directive by listening to this episode of the Health Ranger Report , a podcast by Mike Adams , the Health Ranger , as he talks about how Los Angeles is threatening to cut off water and power to homes and businesses that do not comply with the city ’ s coronavirus lockdown measures .
In response to the new mandate at the university , a group of Oakland students launched a petition against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BioButton Optional for Staff and Students at Oakland University.
” ( Related : Tech in the time of coronavirus : Artist designs masks that can UNLOCK smartphones using facial recognition technology . )
Along with concerns over privacy , the petitioners also alleged that university officials attempted to hide the new policy by burying the article deep within the university ’ s website .
The petition garnered more than 2,500 e-signatures after just one weekend , which represents around 13 percent of the entire student body .
Many of the students who signed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much data the BioButton can take .
“ A large portion of students feel that this [ is a ] violation of their privacy and some students have stated that their rejections of this idea come from a religious basis , ” wrote Tyler Dixon , the main organizer of the petition .
“ I understand the reasoning behind getting tested for the virus and I am all for that , ” said Cayla Stus , an incoming freshman .
“ But having to wear something that monitors [ my health information ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I did not consent to this when I signed my housing contract , ” said Reese Petruska , another student .
“ This should have been clearly stated before contracts were locked , and should have been clearly outlined in any and all emails sent to residents.
” Because of the massive backlash , Oakland was forced to listen to its students , and its mandate for residents to wear the BioButton was scrapped .
Now , students have the option of either wearing the BioButton , which the university said they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or answering a health screening survey that will clear them to go to class .
Learn more about how institutions are attempting to deal with the pandemic at Pandemic.news .

by: Arsenio Toledo
(Natural News) Earlier this month, Oakland University in Rochester Hills, Michigan, hatched out a plan to require students to wear a “BioButton” while they are on campus to track whether or not they have the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19). However, thanks to massive backlash from the student population, the plan to mandate the medical device’s use was scrapped.
The BioButton, made by Colorado-based medical technology company BioIntelliSense, is a wearable single-use device that monitors a person’s vital statistics, such as their heart rate, respiratory rate and body temperature. It’s meant to be worn on the chest and it can be connected to a person’s mobile device.
“It provides additional information for health screening,” said the university in a now-deleted post on their website. “The button will be used in conjunction with the daily health assessment to determine if you are able to participate in campus activities. The individual data will remain private to the wearer and is not shared with others.”
According to David Stone, the university’s chief research officer, using the BioButton provides several advantages for residents, such as the device’s ability to notice abnormalities in people’s vital signs before they even take a test for COVID-19.
“That would limit the potential for outbreaks on campus, and that’s what we’re looking for,” said Stone.
Many students have raised concerns about their privacy being violated and their data possibly being stolen by BioIntelliSense, but Stone claims that the university doesn’t even have access to their health information.
Instead, the BioButton rates whether a person is on “green alert” or “red alert.” People whose status is green are free to go about their business. But if the university’s health services department receives a “red” alert, an official will call the wearer to ask them questions about their health.
Stone also touted that the BioButton would be helpful for the university’s contact tracing efforts because it can tell people if they have had significant contact with somebody who tested positive for COVID-19.
This is just the latest example of institutions trying to use the coronavirus pandemic to advance their Orwellian coronavirus policies. Learn about one such directive by listening to this episode of the Health Ranger Report, a podcast by Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, as he talks about how Los Angeles is threatening to cut off water and power to homes and businesses that do not comply with the city’s coronavirus lockdown measures.
Successful protest makes university back down
In response to the new mandate at the university, a group of Oakland students launched a petition against the new policy, titled “Make the BioButton Optional for Staff and Students at Oakland University.” (Related: Tech in the time of coronavirus: Artist designs masks that can UNLOCK smartphones using facial recognition technology.)
Along with concerns over privacy, the petitioners also alleged that university officials attempted to hide the new policy by burying the article deep within the university’s website.
The petition garnered more than 2,500 e-signatures after just one weekend, which represents around 13 percent of the entire student body.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Many of the students who signed the petition had similar concerns regarding how much data the BioButton can take.
“A large portion of students feel that this [is a] violation of their privacy and some students have stated that their rejections of this idea come from a religious basis,” wrote Tyler Dixon, the main organizer of the petition.
“I understand the reasoning behind getting tested for the virus and I am all for that,” said Cayla Stus, an incoming freshman. “But having to wear something that monitors [my health information] … just seems like too much.”
“I did not consent to this when I signed my housing contract,” said Reese Petruska, another student. “This should have been clearly stated before contracts were locked, and should have been clearly outlined in any and all emails sent to residents.”
Because of the massive backlash, Oakland was forced to listen to its students, and its mandate for residents to wear the BioButton was scrapped. Now, students have the option of either wearing the BioButton, which the university said they will be providing free of charge, or answering a health screening survey that will clear them to go to class.
Learn more about how institutions are attempting to deal with the pandemic at Pandemic.news.
Sources include:
TheCollegeFix.com
PRNewswire.com
ClickOnDetroit.com
Fox2Detroit.com
FastCompany.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--The Tennessee Highway Patrol Are Employees Of Homeland Security

When a Tennessee Highway Patrol trooper ripped the mask off of a man who was video recording a traffic stop last week , I thought it was just another case of a police officer abusing his authority .
But this story was about to get a lot more disturbing .
Four days ago , WKRN reported that the Highway Patrol trooper had been fired for his actions , which is not the disturbing part .
The disturbing part is , who fired him and what it reveals about the Feds controlling law enforcement .
After filing a complaint with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made this announcement… Apparently , the Office of Professional Accountability is now part of Homeland Security .
Try not to scream as you read how Homeland Security troopers should be courteous and professional in their dealings with the public .
“ Employees of the Department of Safety & Homeland Security shall strive to be professional and courteous in their dealings with citizens .
It is the desire of the Department that all of your contacts with our employees are professional .
If not , we will aim to resolve the complaint in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ articles from across the country show just how courteous and professional Homeland Security employees are in their dealings with Black Lives Matter protesters .
Looking at the Tennessee Department of Safety ’ s website reveals that it is now referred to as the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security .
“ Welcome to the Tennessee Office of Homeland Security ’ s official website .
Since the attacks of 9/11 , our country and the world as we knew it changed forever .
Our office is deeply committed to protecting all citizens of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would damage our American way of life .
Please take a few minutes to view our site and join our efforts in protecting our state and country.
” You read that right , apparently Tennessee ’ s state troopers are now tasked with protecting Homeland Security ’ s version of the “ American way of life.
” What is Homeland Security ’ s version of American life ?
To suspect everyone and trust no one .
Homeland Security ’ s state troopers are encouraging citizens to spy on each other because they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a video of Homeland Security troopers protecting the American way of life from being videotaped .
b .
The Deputy to the Governor ; e. The Commissioner of Commerce and Insurance , in her capacity as the State Fire Marshal ; f. The Commissioner of Environment and Conservation ; g. The Commissioner of Finance and Administration ; k. The Adjutant General of the Military Department ; l. The Director of the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency ; n. The Colonel of the Tennessee Highway Patrol ; p. The Director of the Tennessee Bureau of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Law Enforcement of the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency ; I highly recommend people read Executive Order # 8 .
The Homeland Security Council basically influences a lot more than what is listed .
Everyone should be horrified by Homeland Security ’ s blatant power grab of Tennessee ’ s Highway Patrol troopers .
A national police force controlled by Homeland Security is too terrifying to imagine .

by mapi
When a Tennessee Highway Patrol trooper ripped the mask off of a man who was video recording a traffic stop last week, I thought it was just another case of a police officer abusing his authority.
But this story was about to get a lot more disturbing.
Four days ago, WKRN reported that the Highway Patrol trooper had been fired for his actions, which is not the disturbing part. The disturbing part is, who fired him and what it reveals about the Feds controlling law enforcement.
After filing a complaint with the Office of Professional Accountability, Homeland Security made this announcement…
“It is the Department of Safety and Homeland Security’s policy to warn, suspend, demote or dismiss any employee whenever just or legal cause exists. Employees shall not commit any act that would reflect discredit upon themselves or the department while on or off duty.”
Apparently, the Office of Professional Accountability is now part of Homeland Security.
“The Office of Professional Accountability is charged with managing the investigative and disciplinary processes for the Department of Safety & Homeland Security.”
Try not to scream as you read how Homeland Security troopers should be courteous and professional in their dealings with the public.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Employees of the Department of Safety & Homeland Security shall strive to be professional and courteous in their dealings with citizens. It is the desire of the Department that all of your contacts with our employees are professional. If not, we will aim to resolve the complaint in a prompt and objective manner.”
Recent news articles from across the country show just how courteous and professional Homeland Security employees are in their dealings with Black Lives Matter protesters.
Looking at the Tennessee Department of Safety’s website reveals that it is now referred to as the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security.
“Welcome to the Tennessee Office of Homeland Security’s official website. Since the attacks of 9/11, our country and the world as we knew it changed forever. Our office is deeply committed to protecting all citizens of Tennessee from the criminal and terrorist threats that would damage our American way of life. Please take a few minutes to view our site and join our efforts in protecting our state and country.”
You read that right, apparently Tennessee’s state troopers are now tasked with protecting Homeland Security’s version of the “American way of life.”
What is Homeland Security’s version of American life? To suspect everyone and trust no one.
“If you see something, say something is a program designed to raise public awareness of indicators of terrorism-related crimes and/or unusual, suspicious or criminal activities, and to emphasize the importance of reporting suspicious activity to the proper state and local law enforcement authorities. If you see something suspicious taking place then report that behavior or activity by calling 9-1-1. An alert public plays a critical role in keeping Tennessee safe.”
Homeland Security’s state troopers are encouraging citizens to spy on each other because they do not trust anyone.
Below is a video of Homeland Security troopers protecting the American way of life from being videotaped.
The Department of Safety “about us” page lists three Executive Orders that reveal just how much influence Homeland Security has in Tennessee.
Executive Order #8 reveals that as head of the Homeland Security Council they have the final say on how they want these departments to act:
b. The Deputy to the Governor;
c. The Attorney General;
d. The Commissioner of Agriculture;
e. The Commissioner of Commerce and Insurance, in her capacity as the State Fire Marshal;
f. The Commissioner of Environment and Conservation;
g. The Commissioner of Finance and Administration;
h. The State Chief Information Officer;
i. The Commissioner of General Services;
j. The Commissioner of Health;
k. The Adjutant General of the Military Department;
l. The Director of the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency;
m. The Commissioner of Safety;
n. The Colonel of the Tennessee Highway Patrol;
o. The Commissioner of Transportation;
p. The Director of the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation;
q. The Chief of Law Enforcement of the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency;
I highly recommend people read Executive Order #8. The Homeland Security Council basically influences a lot more than what is listed.
Executive Order #16 reveals that Homeland Security controls the state’s Citizen Corps and the Governor’s Citizen Corps Advisory Committee.
Executive Order #48 describes in greater detail how Homeland Security controls the Commissioner of Finance and Administration.
Everyone should be horrified by Homeland Security’s blatant power grab of Tennessee’s Highway Patrol troopers. A national police force controlled by Homeland Security is too terrifying to imagine.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--As violence increases in demorat-run Philadelphia, leaders want residents to turn in their guns

I ’ m sure the criminals will get right on that request… Shocker , not : We ’ ve got another demorat-run city that is experiencing an increase in crime .
CBS Philly reports that 259 people have been murdered so far this year , a 31 % increase from this time last year .
The city council held an emergency meeting last week to come up with solutions .
Here ’ s one of them : Do these fools really believe that criminals are going to comply with this request ?
The city ’ s Soros-backed district attorney , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminals and is a proponent of bail reform .
At least he was until last week but now he ’ s apparently had a change of heart .
From the CBS Philly story : “ Krasner was the first to address the City Council ’ s Special Committee on Gun Violence and even got emotional during the hearing when talking about 7-year-old Zamar Jones , who was killed during gun crossfire in West Philadelphia .
Krasner says his office is pushing for higher bail on those linked to gun crimes .
“ What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are too low and often too low on cases that involve shootings , on cases involving felons in possession of firearms , ” he said.
” Too little , too late for Zamar Jones , Mr. Krasner .
When are democrat voters going to realize the obvious ?

by DCG
I’m sure the criminals will get right on that request…
Shocker, not: We’ve got another demorat-run city that is experiencing an increase in crime. CBS Philly reports that 259 people have been murdered so far this year, a 31% increase from this time last year.
The city council held an emergency meeting last week to come up with solutions. Here’s one of them:
Philadelphia is seeing an increase in shootings…to combat the senseless gun violence, city council, Philadelphia Police and community groups organized a home gun check…urging residents to safely turn in firearms lying around their homes before they get into the wrong hands. pic.twitter.com/00QUqFOHrb — Katie Katro (@KatieKatro6abc) August 15, 2020
Do these fools really believe that criminals are going to comply with this request?
The city’s Soros-backed district attorney, Larry Krasner, has been lenient with criminals and is a proponent of bail reform. At least he was until last week but now he’s apparently had a change of heart. From the CBS Philly story:
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“Krasner was the first to address the City Council’s Special Committee on Gun Violence and even got emotional during the hearing when talking about 7-year-old Zamar Jones, who was killed during gun crossfire in West Philadelphia.
Krasner says his office is pushing for higher bail on those linked to gun crimes. “What my office is seeing is that bails are too low and often too low on cases that involve shootings, on cases involving felons in possession of firearms,” he said.”
Too little, too late for Zamar Jones, Mr. Krasner.
When are democrat voters going to realize the obvious?
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--Sara Carter: Chinese Citizens Recruited By CCP To Operate As Pro-Biden Online ‘Troll Army’ To Influe

Sara Carter: Chinese Citizens Recruited By CCP To Operate As Pro-Biden Online ‘Troll Army’ To Influence 2020 Election

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC Squawk Box hosts that China is recruiting and paying over a million citizens to monitor and influence the U.S. 2020 presidential election process Monday .
He described the Wu Mao army , as an online “ troll army ” aimed at getting presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden elected in November .
Navarro said the Chinese government is “ clearly buying their time waiting for the election hoping Joe Biden will get elected .
I don ’ t know if you ’ ve heard of the Wu Mao army ?
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s going on is the Chinese communist party is waging informational army the Wu Mao army is millions of Chinese that get paid to troll our Internet and push anti-Trump messages , pro-Biden messages.
” “ I looked at what ’ s going on here with our democracy it ’ s the scariest as I ’ ve ever seen it ’ s become a tool like the Chinese communist party to influence what ’ s going on here as the president loves to say , let ’ s see what happens in November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be on guard , ” he said .

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC Squawk Box hosts that China is recruiting and paying over a million citizens to monitor and influence the U.S. 2020 presidential election process Monday. He described the Wu Mao army, as an online “troll army” aimed at getting presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden elected in November.
Navarro said the Chinese government is “clearly buying their time waiting for the election hoping Joe Biden will get elected. I don’t know if you’ve heard of the Wu Mao army?”
“But one of the things that’s going on is the Chinese communist party is waging informational army the Wu Mao army is millions of Chinese that get paid to troll our Internet and push anti-Trump messages, pro-Biden messages.”
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“I looked at what’s going on here with our democracy it’s the scariest as I’ve ever seen it’s become a tool like the Chinese communist party to influence what’s going on here as the president loves to say, let’s see what happens in November but in the meantime, we have to be on guard,” he said.
saraacarter.com/navarro-chinese-citizens-recruited-by-ccp-to-operate-as-pro-biden-online-troll-army-to-influence-2020-election/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--How Internet Politics Look to Normal Humans

How Internet Politics Look to Normal Humans
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AH


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-18--Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Don’t Support Bullish Thesis

With the second quarter of the 2020 reporting season mostly behind us , and with markets testing “ all-time ” highs , do earnings support the bullish thesis ?
Such is the fundamental question surrounding the debate over the record deviation between “ momentum ” and “ growth.
” As we stated before the earnings season began , the annual “ beat the estimate ” game would , as always , have a high “ beat rate.
” Why do I call it “ Millennial Soccer ” season ?
As I explained in “ The Truth About Wall Street Analysis.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimates drastically following the first quarter , companies reported a record “ beat ” rate .
With 90 % of companies reporting , we can safely say – “ everyone got a trophy.
” Such a high “ beat rate ” certainly “ seems ” to suggest companies are firing on all cylinders , and that currently elevated prices are justified .
However , as they say , the “ Devil is in the details.
” Upward Revisions Not What They Seem Let ’ s start with the “ estimate revisions , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as clear evidence of support for lofty valuations .
The chart below is the “ revision breadth ” by analysts for the S & P 500 .
While these revisions from extremely negative levels are significant , and investors rush to chase extremely overvalued “ momentum stocks , ” the overall “ earnings season ” was quite dismal .
As noted by FactSet : Pay very close attention to the chart below .
Paying More For Less Below is the evolution of estimates from Standard & Poors from the beginning of this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points : • In January and February , investors were bidding up stocks to all-time highs based on REPORTED earnings of $ 171/share by the end of 2021 .
• Today investors are paying the same price for 2021 earnings that are $ 20/share lower .
• While earnings revisions did tick HIGHER at the beginning of August , estimates through the end of 2020 hit a new low just 2-weeks later .
The message here is simple .
• In January of 2020 , investors were told to buy stocks because valuations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • In August of 2020 , investors are being told the same , but they are paying more for less .
But what about those upward revisions ?
Look at the chart above again .
You will notice there have indeed been upward revisions to estimates through the end of the year .
However , they have been tiny relative to the increase in asset prices .
FactSet also made a note : Not surprisingly , given the record-level cuts to EPS estimates during the first half of the year , it resulted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as noted above.Given the high beat rate , analysts are confident in increasing their estimates for the next quarter .
Not so impressive when viewed at this level .
However , the charts below show the evolution a little more clearly .
The data below is the latest from Standard & Poors for the S & P 500 index .
Let ’ s start with the monthly changes since January .
You will notice that 2020 estimates are lower , while 2021 estimates are slightly increased .
Not so impressive .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the FactSet data .
The reality is that while markets are sitting at all-time highs ( as they were in February ) , both 2020 and 2021 estimates are lower .
“ Price is what you pay , value is what you get.
” – Warren Buffett But this is where you should take notice .
During the last TWO years , reported earnings for the S & P 500 have plunged .
While analysts are currently hoping for a “ V-shaped ” economic recovery to provide for the “ hockey stick ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not occur .
As noted , investors are currently “ paying up ” for 2021 earnings , which are $ 27 lower than 2020 earnings in April 2019 .
The reality is that earnings , and more importantly , revenue ( which is where earnings come from ) have collapsed .
The chart below shows the total cumulative growth of the S & P 500 index versus operating ( most optimistic as its earnings before all the bad stuff ) and sales per share .
Do you see the problem here ?
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disparity .
The chart below shows the S & P 500 index versus both Operating ( fantasy ) and Reported ( reality ) earnings .
Even with the recent upward revisions to earnings , operating earnings are still 33 % lower , with reported earnings down 46 % .
Despite the rise in the S & P 500 index , earnings have fallen despite substantially lower tax rates and massive corporate share repurchases .
( Share repurchases reduce the denominator of the EPS calculation . )
Such is no small thing .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-fold .
Primarily , it was the distortion of bottom-line earnings per share .
At the end of 2019 , reported EPS was boosted by $ 3.21/share by share buybacks .
That support has now collapsed to just $ 1.51 per share .
Importantly , note that while shares outstanding have reached a new low , earnings have collapsed as well .
However , had it not been for the share repurchases , the EPS decline would have been worse .
Nearly 75 % of earnings reported are from “ accounting gimmickry ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Think about that for a moment .
Secondly , a rising headwind for markets in the future will be to share buybacks to remain a significant market support .
Today , buybacks have fallen sharply as corporations move to conserve cash amidst a recessionary economy .
As noted , since the “ Financial Crisis ” lows , much of the rise in “ profitability ” has come from cost-cutting measures and accounting gimmicks rather than actual increases in top-line revenue .
While tax cuts certainly provided the capital for a surge in buybacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a consumption-based economy , remained muted .
Now , the “ economic shutdown ” has crushed revenue growth entirely .
Since 2009 , the operating earnings per share of corporations has risen by just 158 % .
However , the increase in earnings did not come from an increase in revenue .
During the period , sales ( which is boosted due share reductions ) grew by a marginal 41 % .
However , investors have bid up the market more than 365 % from the financial crisis lows of 666 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ haven ’ t overpaid for assets .
While Wall Street continues to come up with a myriad of ways to “ rationalize ” overpaying for assets in the markets currently , just remember , it ’ s not their money .
It ’ s yours .
Earnings do not support the current bullish thesis .
As we just wrote in “ Close , But No Cigar : ” “ What eventually sparks a reversion is always the one thing no one is anticipating .
Throughout history , the unexpected , exogenous event is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After the damage occurs , the media ’ s excuse is always : ‘ Well , no one could have seen that coming.
’ As noted above , overbought , extended , overly bullish markets are by themselves ‘ bullish.
’ These conditions represent the current ‘ momentum , ’ which keeps pushing assets higher and dragging investors into the market .
It ’ s very much like a crowded theater .
Everything is fine until that point where someone yells ‘ fire.
’ At that point , everyone tries to rush @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market is currently trading at absurd valuation levels .
There is little to support the idea of a “ V-shaped ” recovery at this point .
Investor “ psychology ” will collide with “ reality , ” and the rush to exit will not be a slow and methodical process .
Instead , much like we saw in March , it will be a stampede with little regard to price , valuation , or fundamental measures .
The exit will become very narrow .

by Lance Roberts
With the second quarter of the 2020 reporting season mostly behind us, and with markets testing “all-time” highs, do earnings support the bullish thesis? Such is the fundamental question surrounding the debate over the record deviation between “momentum” and “growth.”
No Real Surprise
As we stated before the earnings season began, the annual “beat the estimate” game would, as always, have a high “beat rate.”
“SO EXCITED! – It’s almost Millennial Soccer season on Wall Street where companies begin to beat estimates on drastically lowered expectations.”
Why do I call it “Millennial Soccer” season? As I explained in “The Truth About Wall Street Analysis.”
Earnings season is now a ‘game’ where no one keeps score. The media cheers, and everyone gets a ‘participation trophy’ just for showing up.”
Not surprisingly, after cutting earnings estimates drastically following the first quarter, companies reported a record “beat” rate.
With 90% of companies reporting, we can safely say – “everyone got a trophy.”
Such a high “beat rate” certainly “seems” to suggest companies are firing on all cylinders, and that currently elevated prices are justified.
However, as they say, the “Devil is in the details.”
Upward Revisions Not What They Seem
Let’s start with the “estimate revisions,” which have been touted by the bulls as clear evidence of support for lofty valuations. The chart below is the “revision breadth” by analysts for the S&P 500.
While these revisions from extremely negative levels are significant, and investors rush to chase extremely overvalued “momentum stocks,” the overall “earnings season” was quite dismal. As noted by FactSet:
“Earnings Growth: For Q2 2020, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -33.8%. If -33.8% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q1 2009 (-35.4%). Earnings Guidance: For Q3 2020, 11 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 34 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. (Only 10% issued guidance, which leaves analysts guessing at future results) Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.3. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (17.0) and above the 10-year average (15.3).
Pay very close attention to the chart below.
Paying More For Less
Below is the evolution of estimates from Standard & Poors from the beginning of this year.
Let me point out some critical points:
In January and February, investors were bidding up stocks to all-time highs based on REPORTED earnings of $171/share by the end of 2021. Today investors are paying the same price for 2021 earnings that are $20/share lower. While earnings revisions did tick HIGHER at the beginning of August, estimates through the end of 2020 hit a new low just 2-weeks later.
The message here is simple.
In January of 2020, investors were told to buy stocks because valuations were cheap based on 2021 estimates.
In August of 2020, investors are being told the same, but they are paying more for less.
But what about those upward revisions?
Estimate Revisions Are Small
Look at the chart above again. You will notice there have indeed been upward revisions to estimates through the end of the year. However, they have been tiny relative to the increase in asset prices. FactSet also made a note:
“During the first six months of CY 2020, analysts lowered earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the year. The CY 2020 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median 2020 EPS estimates for all the companies in the index) declined by 28.7% (to $126.86 from $177.81) during this period. This marked the largest decrease in the annual EPS estimate for the index over the first six months of the year since FactSet began tracking the annual bottom-up EPS estimate in 1996.
Not surprisingly, given the record-level cuts to EPS estimates during the first half of the year, it resulted in the elevated “beat rate” as noted above.Given the high beat rate, analysts are confident in increasing their estimates for the next quarter.
Since June 30, the CY 2020 bottom-up EPS estimate has increased by 3.5% (to $131.30 from $126.86).”
Not so impressive when viewed at this level. However, the charts below show the evolution a little more clearly. The data below is the latest from Standard & Poors for the S&P 500 index.
Just A Nudge
Let’s start with the monthly changes since January. You will notice that 2020 estimates are lower, while 2021 estimates are slightly increased. Not so impressive.
However, that chart is deceptive, along with the FactSet data. The reality is that while markets are sitting at all-time highs (as they were in February), both 2020 and 2021 estimates are lower.
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett
An Earnings Reality
But this is where you should take notice.
During the last TWO years, reported earnings for the S&P 500 have plunged. While analysts are currently hoping for a “V-shaped” economic recovery to provide for the “hockey stick” recovery, risks are high such will not occur.
As noted, investors are currently “paying up” for 2021 earnings, which are $27 lower than 2020 earnings in April 2019.
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The reality is that earnings, and more importantly, revenue (which is where earnings come from) have collapsed.
The chart below shows the total cumulative growth of the S&P 500 index versus operating (most optimistic as its earnings before all the bad stuff) and sales per share.
Do you see the problem here?
Here is a better way to visualize the disparity. The chart below shows the S&P 500 index versus both Operating (fantasy) and Reported (reality) earnings.
Even with the recent upward revisions to earnings, operating earnings are still 33% lower, with reported earnings down 46%.
It’s Actually Worse
Despite the rise in the S&P 500 index, earnings have fallen despite substantially lower tax rates and massive corporate share repurchases. (Share repurchases reduce the denominator of the EPS calculation.)
Such is no small thing. The issue of share repurchases previously has been two-fold. Primarily, it was the distortion of bottom-line earnings per share.
We have discussed the issue of “share buybacks” numerous times and the distortion caused by the use of corporate cash to lower shares outstanding to increase earnings per share. ‘The reason companies spend billions on buybacks is to increase bottom-line earnings per share, which provides the ‘illusion’ of increasing profitability to support higher share prices. Since revenue growth has remained extremely weak since the financial crisis, companies have become dependent on inflating earnings on a ‘per share’ basis by reducing the denominator. “
At the end of 2019, reported EPS was boosted by $3.21/share by share buybacks. That support has now collapsed to just $1.51 per share.
Importantly, note that while shares outstanding have reached a new low, earnings have collapsed as well. However, had it not been for the share repurchases, the EPS decline would have been worse. Nearly 75% of earnings reported are from “accounting gimmickry” versus actual “revenue” growth.
Think about that for a moment.
Buyback Support Is Fading
Secondly, a rising headwind for markets in the future will be to share buybacks to remain a significant market support.
As noted previously,
However, for investors, the real issue is that almost 100% of the net purchases of equities has come from corporations.
Today, buybacks have fallen sharply as corporations move to conserve cash amidst a recessionary economy.
As noted, since the “Financial Crisis” lows, much of the rise in “profitability” has come from cost-cutting measures and accounting gimmicks rather than actual increases in top-line revenue. While tax cuts certainly provided the capital for a surge in buybacks, revenue growth, which is connected to a consumption-based economy, remained muted. Now, the “economic shutdown” has crushed revenue growth entirely.
Since 2009, the operating earnings per share of corporations has risen by just 158%. However, the increase in earnings did not come from an increase in revenue. During the period, sales (which is boosted due share reductions) grew by a marginal 41%.
However, investors have bid up the market more than 365% from the financial crisis lows of 666.
Investors are once again extremely optimistic they haven’t overpaid for assets.
A Narrow Exit While Wall Street continues to come up with a myriad of ways to “rationalize” overpaying for assets in the markets currently, just remember, it’s not their money. It’s yours. Earnings do not support the current bullish thesis. As we just wrote in “Close, But No Cigar:” “What eventually sparks a reversion is always the one thing no one is anticipating. Throughout history, the unexpected, exogenous event is what sends investors fleeing for the exits. After the damage occurs, the media’s excuse is always: ‘Well, no one could have seen that coming.’ As noted above, overbought, extended, overly bullish markets are by themselves ‘bullish.’ These conditions represent the current ‘momentum,’ which keeps pushing assets higher and dragging investors into the market. It’s very much like a crowded theater. Everything is fine until that point where someone yells ‘fire.’ At that point, everyone tries to rush towards a very narrow exit.” The market is currently trading at absurd valuation levels. There is little to support the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery at this point. Investor “psychology” will collide with “reality,” and the rush to exit will not be a slow and methodical process. Instead, much like we saw in March, it will be a stampede with little regard to price, valuation, or fundamental measures. The exit will become very narrow.