investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Deutsche Bank – On the Brink of Insolvency

On this week ’ s edition of DDDD ( Data-Driven DD ; yes this is what I ’ m going to be calling this ) , we ’ ll be looking at Deutsche Bank .
Once one of the largest banks in the world , it ’ s now a shell of its former self after the 2008 financial crisis .
Disclaimer – This is not financial advice , and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion .
In fact , the numbers , facts , or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because some person on the internet says so ; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders .
Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money , and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance .
A Brief History of Deutsche Bank ( and Deutschland ) Let ’ s first start with some background around Deutsche Bank , because it has some very interesting history behind it .
In particular , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the worst crises and scandals in world and economic history ever since its founding in 1870 .
Here ’ s a brief timeline : • Founded in Berlin in 1870 with the original mission to facilitate trade between Germany and foreign nations • Rapidly expanded overseas in the late 1800s , opening branches in London , Shanghai , and South America • Financed the Holocaust in the 1930s , including the construction of the Auschwitz concentration camp and the Gestapo • Broken up to 10 smaller banks after Germany ’ s defeat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those banks later merged back together less than 10 years later • Acquired a bunch of overseas banks , including banks in the UK and the US , during the 80s and 90s , growing to become one of the largest money management firms in the world • Drove the market for CDOs in 2007 and even created CDOs consisting of their bad subprime mortgages , somehow got an A-level rating on them from the rating agencies , and aggressively marketed the CDOs to investors while knowing that their CDOs were shit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lippmann , knew about this and told everyone that CDOs were effectively a Ponzi scheme , even shorting CDOs himself through Credit Default Swaps .
He then went around to different funds in Wall Street and told them that CDOs were going to collapse and sold them Credit Default Swaps as a way to short the CDO market , creating synthetic CDOs , the asset on the other side of that trade , with them to sell to other investors .
This entire scheme was the inspiration for The Big Short , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by now .
• Also the bank that finances businesses of the current President , which might be worth considering for political motives / implications if something bad happens to Deutsche Bank • Today , they focus on Corporate Banking , Investment Banking , Private Banking , and Asset Management Let ’ s see how $ DB ’ s performance has been the past few years Yikes , it went from an all time high of $ 140 in 2007 to $ 6 today in 2020 .
In terms of their market cap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its 2007 peak to $ 13B today .
So , what happened ?
Let ’ s look at their 2019 SEC annual filing .
From their interest income , 19 % comes from Corporate Banking , 39 % from Investment Banking , 30 % from Private Banking , and the rest comes from some other various operations .
So in a good year , in a period of “ high ” interest rates in the US ( at least relative to the past decade ) , Deutsche Bank is still somehow losing billions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their slight 4 % YoY increase in net revenue income was driven by the fact that the US had a more favorable interest rate environment during that year , and their reduction of deposits in Germany , where they were experiencing negative interest rates .
Negative interest rates mean that banks need to pay the central bank to safely store their reserves with them , making it really hard to make a profit for banks .
Luckily they had the relatively high interest rates of the US to make up for it in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0 % again , this will be a very different story for 2020 , and they ’ ll likely see even larger losses for this year .
So there ’ s a few very interesting things here .
First , is the fact that their book value is €62B , or $ 67B USD , giving them a leverage of 26 , which is way higher than literally every bank in the United States .
What does a bank leverage ratio mean ?
It ’ s a quick way to see how well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ability to withstand negative shocks to its balance sheets without becoming insolvent .
It ’ s harder to think of a more severe shock to the economic systems and people ’ s ability to pay back loans than a complete worldwide lockdown .
Another thing fishy with their book value is that their market cap is sitting at 13B USD .
Even in January , before the stock market crashed it was sitting at 17B USD .
That ’ s a big red flag , because theoretically if Deutsche Bank ’ s assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theoretically be left with €62B , or $ 38 per share , which is way higher than the stock ’ s current $ 6 share price .
This should especially be easy because the vast majority of their balance sheet consists of liquid assets or assets that should be easy to liquidate… or are they ?
Let ’ s take a closer look at their derivatives .
In their annual statement , they mentioned that they were trying to discontinue their derivatives business , which already helped cause one banking crisis a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their “ bad ” capital , like their derivatives , in its own entity , called the “ Capital Release Unit ” , with the goal of liquidating these assets to release capital and de-leverage themselves .
In 2019 , their Capital Release Unit lost a total of €3.9B and held the €333B of derivatives .
It also looks like they ’ re doing a bad job of releasing this specific class of capital , because their derivative assets and liabilities actually increased since 2018 .
That ’ s because a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but instead over-the-counter with parties that have an ISDA agreement .
As anyone who ’ s watched The Big Short can tell you ( so literally everyone else on this subreddit ) , these OTC derivatives tend to be illiquid and difficult to value due to lack of price discovery .
This is why Deutsche Bank ’ s book value is more than their market cap , even before COVID-19 .
There ’ s doubt as to what some of the OTC derivatives are actually worth .
They have a book value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ €333B , meaning if the actual net value of these derivatives are 19 % or more lower than what they say they are , they become insolvent .
This is the bank equivalent of buying SPY puts on margin in Robinhood ( yes I know you can ’ t do that ) , but not knowing how much your puts are worth until you try selling .
If you were like most of r/wallstreetbets you probably bought SPY puts when SPY was at 220 .
You know if you tried to sell your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re now worth a lot less than you originally bought them for ( in the case of OTC derivatives , they can actually have a negative value ! )
, realizing your portfolio value ( equity ) is below zero and you get a margin call ( insolvent ) .
In fact , they ’ ve allegedly done something similar in 2008 by failing to recognize losses related to the explosion of super senior tranches of CDOs , which may have led to joining Lehman Brothers in the bank graveyard if they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closer look at these derivatives , specifically the ones that mature in 2020 .
Derivatives maturing in 2020 by nominal value First a few things to clarify .
Bilateral Clearing is an agreement between some party with an ISDA agreement with the bank , where the bank acts as the counterparty to the derivative being sold .
Central Counterparty Clearing is when an institution facilitates an OTC derivative transaction by ensuring both sides of the transaction are financially sound enough and have enough collateral to not default on the derivative , and if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the central counterparty is now financially responsible for their side of the trade .
This was put into place after 2008 when the risk of counterparties like AIG defaulting on credit default swaps became a huge systematic problem .
Also , a nominal value is different from a derivative ’ s actual price .
For example , if you bought a SPY 4/20 220p , the nominal value of your derivative is $ 22000 ( 100 shares * $ 220 per share ) but the actual value of your put is $ 0 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Interest rates got cut all around the world • Currencies exchange rates have dramatically changed since December with oil-exporting countries .
For example USD / CAD went from $ 1.30 to $ 1.42 during this time period • Equity values exploded , even with the bull run we ’ re currently in • A lot of BBB-rated companies got downgraded , and we might see defaults come in , even with the Fed buying bonds These recent events will probably change the valuation of these derivatives by a lot , some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their balance sheets immediately ( eg .
exchange traded derivatives ) because their valuations can easily be calculated .
The key here is that the net losses needs to be below €62B or they become insolvent .
Now , we ’ re in the age of too-big-to-fail businesses and the US government and Fed bailing out everyone , which is a real risk of taking a short position against $ DB , especially considering how connected they are with other US financial institutions by acting as the counterparty or the central counterparty clearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If Deutsche Bank goes under , a lot of other financial institutions are going to have problems .
The problem with Deutsche Bank is that it is not a US company and can ’ t be hence bailed out by the US government .
In fact , they weren ’ t eligible for TARP , the last government-funded bank bailout back in 2008 , which is partially why they ’ ve been a financial mess ever since .
Their Q1 earnings call is on April 29 , so we ’ ll find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ASoftEngStudent
On this week’s edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD; yes this is what I’m going to be calling this), we’ll be looking at Deutsche Bank. Once one of the largest banks in the world, it’s now a shell of its former self after the 2008 financial crisis.
Disclaimer – This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don’t buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
A Brief History of Deutsche Bank (and Deutschland)
Let’s first start with some background around Deutsche Bank, because it has some very interesting history behind it. In particular, it’s somehow taken part in causing some of the worst crises and scandals in world and economic history ever since its founding in 1870. Here’s a brief timeline:
Founded in Berlin in 1870 with the original mission to facilitate trade between Germany and foreign nations
Rapidly expanded overseas in the late 1800s, opening branches in London, Shanghai, and South America
Financed the Holocaust in the 1930s, including the construction of the Auschwitz concentration camp and the Gestapo
Broken up to 10 smaller banks after Germany’s defeat in WWII by the Allies, but those banks later merged back together less than 10 years later
Acquired a bunch of overseas banks, including banks in the UK and the US, during the 80s and 90s, growing to become one of the largest money management firms in the world
Drove the market for CDOs in 2007 and even created CDOs consisting of their bad subprime mortgages, somehow got an A-level rating on them from the rating agencies, and aggressively marketed the CDOs to investors while knowing that their CDOs were shit. Their head of CDO trading, Greg Lippmann, knew about this and told everyone that CDOs were effectively a Ponzi scheme, even shorting CDOs himself through Credit Default Swaps. He then went around to different funds in Wall Street and told them that CDOs were going to collapse and sold them Credit Default Swaps as a way to short the CDO market, creating synthetic CDOs, the asset on the other side of that trade, with them to sell to other investors. This entire scheme was the inspiration for The Big Short, in case you didn’t realize this by now.
Also the bank that finances businesses of the current President, which might be worth considering for political motives / implications if something bad happens to Deutsche Bank
Today, they focus on Corporate Banking, Investment Banking, Private Banking, and Asset Management
Let’s see how $DB’s performance has been the past few years
$DB, 2002-2020, Monthly
Yikes, it went from an all time high of $140 in 2007 to $6 today in 2020. In terms of their market cap, it went from $70B from its 2007 peak to $13B today. So, what happened? Let’s look at their 2019 SEC annual filing.
10-K Deep Dive
Income Statement (omitted boring parts)
Revenue € 22.4B (Net Interest = 13.7B, Credit Losses = -723M, Commission & Feed = 9.5B) Expenses € 25.1B (mostly Compensation and G&A) Net income after taxes €-5.3B (includes 2.6B of losses from taxes)
From their interest income, 19% comes from Corporate Banking, 39% from Investment Banking, 30% from Private Banking, and the rest comes from some other various operations.
So in a good year, in a period of “high” interest rates in the US (at least relative to the past decade), Deutsche Bank is still somehow losing billions. In fact, it states that their slight 4% YoY increase in net revenue income was driven by the fact that the US had a more favorable interest rate environment during that year, and their reduction of deposits in Germany, where they were experiencing negative interest rates.
German Interbank Rates
Negative interest rates mean that banks need to pay the central bank to safely store their reserves with them, making it really hard to make a profit for banks. Luckily they had the relatively high interest rates of the US to make up for it in 2019. With interest rates cut to 0% again, this will be a very different story for 2020, and they’ll likely see even larger losses for this year.
Balance Sheet (omitted boring parts)
Assets € 1.3T Cash & Central Bank Deposits € 147B Financial Assets € 531B (Trading Assets – €110B, Derivatives with a positive value – € 333B) Loans € 430B Liabilities € 1.2T Deposits € 572B Financial Liabilities € 404B (Trading Liabilities – € 37B, Derivatives with a negative value – € 317B) Long Term Debt € 136B Equity € 62B
So there’s a few very interesting things here. First, is the fact that their book value is €62B, or $67B USD, giving them a leverage of 26, which is way higher than literally every bank in the United States.
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Top 100 US banks, sorted by leverage
What does a bank leverage ratio mean? It’s a quick way to see how well capitalized a bank is, and its ability to withstand negative shocks to its balance sheets without becoming insolvent. It’s harder to think of a more severe shock to the economic systems and people’s ability to pay back loans than a complete worldwide lockdown.
Another thing fishy with their book value is that their market cap is sitting at 13B USD. Even in January, before the stock market crashed it was sitting at 17B USD. That’s a big red flag, because theoretically if Deutsche Bank’s assets were all liquidated today, investors should theoretically be left with €62B, or $38 per share, which is way higher than the stock’s current $6 share price. This should especially be easy because the vast majority of their balance sheet consists of liquid assets or assets that should be easy to liquidate… or are they?
Derivatives
Let’s take a closer look at their derivatives. In their annual statement, they mentioned that they were trying to discontinue their derivatives business, which already helped cause one banking crisis a decade ago. They restructured and put all their “bad” capital, like their derivatives, in its own entity, called the “Capital Release Unit”, with the goal of liquidating these assets to release capital and de-leverage themselves. In 2019, their Capital Release Unit lost a total of €3.9B and held the €333B of derivatives. It also looks like they’re doing a bad job of releasing this specific class of capital, because their derivative assets and liabilities actually increased since 2018. That’s because a lot of these derivatives are not traded in exchanges, but instead over-the-counter with parties that have an ISDA agreement. As anyone who’s watched The Big Short can tell you (so literally everyone else on this subreddit), these OTC derivatives tend to be illiquid and difficult to value due to lack of price discovery.
This is why Deutsche Bank’s book value is more than their market cap, even before COVID-19. There’s doubt as to what some of the OTC derivatives are actually worth. They have a book value of €62B with derivatives supposedly valued at €333B, meaning if the actual net value of these derivatives are 19% or more lower than what they say they are, they become insolvent. This is the bank equivalent of buying SPY puts on margin in Robinhood (yes I know you can’t do that), but not knowing how much your puts are worth until you try selling. If you were like most of r/wallstreetbets you probably bought SPY puts when SPY was at 220. You know if you tried to sell your puts you might find out that they’re now worth a lot less than you originally bought them for (in the case of OTC derivatives, they can actually have a negative value!), realizing your portfolio value (equity) is below zero and you get a margin call (insolvent). In fact, they’ve allegedly done something similar in 2008 by failing to recognize losses related to the explosion of super senior tranches of CDOs, which may have led to joining Lehman Brothers in the bank graveyard if they did.
Let’s take a closer look at these derivatives, specifically the ones that mature in 2020.
Derivatives maturing in 2020 by nominal value
Type Bilateral Central Counterparty Exchange Traded Interest €2.5T €8.7T €4T Currency €4.3T €95B €17B Equity €98B 0 €184B Credit €39B €63B 0 Commodity €2.7B 0 €31.9B
First a few things to clarify. Bilateral Clearing is an agreement between some party with an ISDA agreement with the bank, where the bank acts as the counterparty to the derivative being sold. Central Counterparty Clearing is when an institution facilitates an OTC derivative transaction by ensuring both sides of the transaction are financially sound enough and have enough collateral to not default on the derivative, and if any party defaults on the derivative, the central counterparty is now financially responsible for their side of the trade. This was put into place after 2008 when the risk of counterparties like AIG defaulting on credit default swaps became a huge systematic problem.
Also, a nominal value is different from a derivative’s actual price. For example, if you bought a SPY 4/20 220p, the nominal value of your derivative is $22000 (100 shares * $220 per share) but the actual value of your put is $0.
We know that since Dec 2019
Interest rates got cut all around the world
Currencies exchange rates have dramatically changed since December with oil-exporting countries. For example USD / CAD went from $1.30 to $1.42 during this time period
Equity values exploded, even with the bull run we’re currently in
A lot of BBB-rated companies got downgraded, and we might see defaults come in, even with the Fed buying bonds
Oil is fucked
These recent events will probably change the valuation of these derivatives by a lot, some of which are going to be realized on their balance sheets immediately (eg. exchange traded derivatives) because their valuations can easily be calculated. The key here is that the net losses needs to be below €62B or they become insolvent.
Now, we’re in the age of too-big-to-fail businesses and the US government and Fed bailing out everyone, which is a real risk of taking a short position against $DB, especially considering how connected they are with other US financial institutions by acting as the counterparty or the central counterparty clearing house to many derivatives that they hold. If Deutsche Bank goes under, a lot of other financial institutions are going to have problems. The problem with Deutsche Bank is that it is not a US company and can’t be hence bailed out by the US government. In fact, they weren’t eligible for TARP, the last government-funded bank bailout back in 2008, which is partially why they’ve been a financial mess ever since.
Their Q1 earnings call is on April 29, so we’ll find out how much trouble they are then.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Facebook is a Shell of its Former Self, and is Now Useless for Protest Coordination

Fakebook says it is working with state governments to take down organizing announcements for protests of the COVID-19 Chinese coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ been spreading around the nation by Americans concerned the cure is worse than the disease @ @ @ @ @ and that the orders by governments go far beyond what is necessary to control the @ @ @ @ @ are more about controlling citizens .
CNN ’ s Oliver Darcy and Donie O ’ @ @ @ @ @ and the state ’ s conspiring to suspend the First Amendment rights of Americans .
@ @ @ @ @ Facebook in California , New Jersey , and Nebraska , are being removed from the @ @ @ @ @ governments in those three states because it violates stay-at-home orders , Facebook spokesperson @ andymstone @ @ @ @

Fakebook says it is working with state governments to take down organizing announcements for protests of the COVID-19 Chinese coronavirus lockdowns. The protests have been spreading around the nation by Americans concerned the cure is worse than the disease and is killing the country and that the orders by governments go far beyond what is necessary to control the spread of the virus and are more about controlling citizens.
CNN’s Oliver Darcy and Donie O’Sullivan posted Monday about Facebook and the state’s conspiring to suspend the First Amendment rights of Americans.
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/facebook-working-state-governments-take-coronavirus-lockdown-protest-announcements/
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Anti-quarantine protests being organized through Facebook in California, New Jersey, and Nebraska, are being removed from the platform on the instruction of governments in those three states because it violates stay-at-home orders, Facebook spokesperson @andymstone tells @donie.
Anti-quarantine protests being organized through Facebook in California, New Jersey, and Nebraska, are being removed from the platform on the instruction of governments in those three states because it violates stay-at-home orders, Facebook spokesperson @andymstone tells @donie. — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) April 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--James Corbett’s letter to the future moved me to tears.

“ No , I don ’ t write these words for my peers ; I write them for those yet to come .
The inhabitants of that future dystopia whose birth pangs we are experiencing .
The remnant of once-free humanity who might—through some miracle I can ’ t even imagine—come across this electronic message in a bottle .
I know that it ’ s almost hopeless .
That the chance of these words surviving the coming internet purge are slim at best .
That even if—against all odds—this message does wash up on your digital shores , the chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is even slimmer .
Not because you don ’ t understand English , but because you no longer use these words I ’ m writing : Freedom .
Humanity .
Individual .
Still , I am here to record the end of an era .
So I will press on in the hope against hope that someone , somewhere in that future Digital Dark Age , will have eyes to see and ears to hear .
Let there be no mistake : We all know this .
We know what it means when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the workforce—are added to the unemployment rolls in a mere three weeks .
When they are joined by millions more newly unemployed ex-workers all around the globe .
When modern-day bread lines stretch for miles in the heart of America ’ s once-proud cities .
When the phony baloney fiat funny money debt rises to over $ 24 trillion and the Fed ’ s Sovietization of the economy is complete .
We know what it means when police start shooting people dead for not wearing a mask .
When drones police quarantines from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ground .
When governments admit to tracking every movement of every citizen and begin internal checkpoints where digital immunity passports determine who may pass and who must stay in their home .
We know what it means when billionaires start telling us that only their new experimental mRNA vaccines will be able to release us from this nightmare .
When they threaten to mark us with invisible ink tattoos to ID the vaccinated .
When they tell us that we will not be able to buy or sell or participate in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immunity.
” It means that the Corona World Order has arrived .
Oh , sure , some still deny it .
But they are only fooling themselves .
They ’ re afraid to admit that it ’ s true .
Many are still under the old conditioning that told them to bleat “ conspiracy theorist ” at anyone questioning authority .
We have a name for that kind : “ sheep.
” Or , sometimes , “ sheeple.
” The masses in our day are kept in the pen by the jackbooted sheepdogs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the political puppets who act as their shepherds .
Occasionally a wise old-timer in the flock cottons on to the game , but the shepherd has only ever fleeced the flock , so he resigns himself to his fate .
Why struggle ?
It ’ s mostly painless .
Never did the sheeple suspect that someday the shepherds would lead them to the slaughter .
It is a term of derision , of course .
“ Sheeple.
” But I like to think that it doesn ’ t just speak to our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , an innocence .
We are trusting and gentle creatures by nature .
Peaceable .
Cooperative .
That is nothing to be scorned .
If it weren ’ t for the predators in our midst , our failings would be counted as virtues .
But I am not here to say that .
I am here to say this : Resist !
Struggle !
Fight !
You are not cogs in a machine , despite what the shepherds of your day may be telling you .
You are free and beautiful human beings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authority of another .
You choose how you live your life , not some bureaucrat , not some police robot , not some “ immunity checkpoint ” algorithm or QR code .
You do not need permission to buy or to sell or to assemble or to speak your mind or to leave your house .
You are not an “ asymptomatic carrier ” of whatever virus your misleaders are telling you to be afraid of .
You do not have to shelter in place because someone in a white lab coat told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand that , once upon a time , the government didn ’ t have the right to know where you were , who you were meeting with , what you were purchasing and what you were doing 24/7 .
Hell , the government didn ’ t even have the ability to do that .
I need you to know that there was a time when you could leave your house when you wanted .
Travel where you wanted .
Buy and sell as you saw fit .
Meet your neighbors .
Rally .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ free human beings are meant to live .
Oh , what am I saying ?
These words .
This language .
It makes no sense to you , does it ?
These concepts don ’ t exist in your time , do they ?
You go where you are told to go .
You stay home when you are told to stay home .
You shut up when you are told to shut up .
You think what you are told to think .
.
.
.
You don ’ t think what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I can ’ t blame you , after all .
You ’ re trusting and naive and peaceful .
Like a sheep .
But oh how I weep for what you have become .
I tried to avert it .
Please believe me .
I really tried .
But the lamp of liberty is being extinguished .
And I am bearing witness .
I don ’ t know if history is something you study anymore , but in case it is not : UK Foreign Secretary “ Sir ” Edward Grey made his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all over Europe ” at the end of the so-called “ Twelve Days.
” According to the mainstream history books of our age , that was the period during the summer of 1914 that the British government was said to be trying to avoid a World War .
We are asked to believe that this prescient remark proved Grey to be a sage diplomat who was wracked with grief over the pain and suffering that he sensed was about to be unleashed upon the world .
But this is history-by-the-winners of the worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself one of the conspirators who were actively working to bring about the First World War .
What ’ s more , the source of this quotation is in fact Grey himself ; it was first recorded in Grey ’ s own post-war memoir .
Any tears he may have shed over the snuffing out of those lamps were crocodile tears , to be sure .
One can well imagine that the history books of your era will record that Bill Gates made a similarly portentous remark at the onset of this corona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his $ 127.5 million , 66,000-square foot-Xanadu 2.0 mansion in Washington State—the then-epicenter of the US outbreak—Gates ’ post-coronavirus memoir will no doubt tell us that he remarked to an underling , “ The lights are going out all across the globe , we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.
” But his memoir will no doubt fail to inform us that he was smirking as he said it .
To my children , or my children ’ s children , or whatever remnant of once-free humanity happens to unearth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are goose-stepping into : I ’ m sorry .
I failed you .
We all failed you .
But remember this : As long as the blood of your forebears flow through your veins , the lamp of human freedom shall not be extinguished forever .
Let it shine , dear sheep .
Let it shine.
” This weekly editorial is part of The Corbett Report Subscriber newsletter .
To support The Corbett Report and to access the full newsletter , please sign up to become a member of the website .

by rabbits_dig_deep
“No, I don’t write these words for my peers; I write them for those yet to come. The inhabitants of that future dystopia whose birth pangs we are experiencing. The remnant of once-free humanity who might—through some miracle I can’t even imagine—come across this electronic message in a bottle.
I know that it’s almost hopeless. That the chance of these words surviving the coming internet purge are slim at best. That even if—against all odds—this message does wash up on your digital shores, the chance of these words being understood by you is even slimmer. Not because you don’t understand English, but because you no longer use these words I’m writing: Freedom. Humanity. Individual.
Still, I am here to record the end of an era. So I will press on in the hope against hope that someone, somewhere in that future Digital Dark Age, will have eyes to see and ears to hear.
The darkness is descending.
Let there be no mistake: We all know this.
We know what it means when 17 million Americans—a full 10% of the workforce—are added to the unemployment rolls in a mere three weeks. When they are joined by millions more newly unemployed ex-workers all around the globe. When modern-day bread lines stretch for miles in the heart of America’s once-proud cities. When the phony baloney fiat funny money debt rises to over $24 trillion and the Fed’s Sovietization of the economy is complete.
We know what it means when police start shooting people dead for not wearing a mask. When drones police quarantines from the sky and robots police lockdowns on the ground. When governments admit to tracking every movement of every citizen and begin internal checkpoints where digital immunity passports determine who may pass and who must stay in their home.
We know what it means when billionaires start telling us that only their new experimental mRNA vaccines will be able to release us from this nightmare. When they threaten to mark us with invisible ink tattoos to ID the vaccinated. When they tell us that we will not be able to buy or sell or participate in the economy until we can prove our “immunity.”
It means that the Corona World Order has arrived.
Oh, sure, some still deny it. But they are only fooling themselves. They’re afraid to admit that it’s true. Many are still under the old conditioning that told them to bleat “conspiracy theorist” at anyone questioning authority.
We have a name for that kind: “sheep.” Or, sometimes, “sheeple.” The masses in our day are kept in the pen by the jackbooted sheepdogs of the police state and led along by the political puppets who act as their shepherds. Occasionally a wise old-timer in the flock cottons on to the game, but the shepherd has only ever fleeced the flock, so he resigns himself to his fate. Why struggle? It’s mostly painless.
Never did the sheeple suspect that someday the shepherds would lead them to the slaughter.
It is a term of derision, of course. “Sheeple.” But I like to think that it doesn’t just speak to our stupidity. It speaks to a naivety, an innocence. We are trusting and gentle creatures by nature. Peaceable. Cooperative. That is nothing to be scorned. If it weren’t for the predators in our midst, our failings would be counted as virtues.
But I am not here to say that. I am here to say this: Resist! Struggle! Fight!
You are not cogs in a machine, despite what the shepherds of your day may be telling you. You are free and beautiful human beings. You are not born under the authority of another. You choose how you live your life, not some bureaucrat, not some police robot, not some “immunity checkpoint” algorithm or QR code.
You do not need permission to buy or to sell or to assemble or to speak your mind or to leave your house. You are not an “asymptomatic carrier” of whatever virus your misleaders are telling you to be afraid of. You do not have to shelter in place because someone in a white lab coat told you to.
I want you to understand that, once upon a time, the government didn’t have the right to know where you were, who you were meeting with, what you were purchasing and what you were doing 24/7. Hell, the government didn’t even have the ability to do that.
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I need you to know that there was a time when you could leave your house when you wanted. Travel where you wanted. Buy and sell as you saw fit. Meet your neighbors. Rally. Protest. Party.
Live. As free human beings are meant to live.
Oh, what am I saying? These words. This language. It makes no sense to you, does it? These concepts don’t exist in your time, do they?
You go where you are told to go. You stay home when you are told to stay home. You shut up when you are told to shut up. You think what you are told to think. . . . You don’t think what you are told to not think.
I can’t blame you, after all. You’re trusting and naive and peaceful. Like a sheep.
But oh how I weep for what you have become. I tried to avert it. Please believe me. I really tried.
But the lamp of liberty is being extinguished. And I am bearing witness.
I don’t know if history is something you study anymore, but in case it is not: UK Foreign Secretary “Sir” Edward Grey made his observation about the lamps “going out all over Europe” at the end of the so-called “Twelve Days.” According to the mainstream history books of our age, that was the period during the summer of 1914 that the British government was said to be trying to avoid a World War. We are asked to believe that this prescient remark proved Grey to be a sage diplomat who was wracked with grief over the pain and suffering that he sensed was about to be unleashed upon the world.
But this is history-by-the-winners of the worst kind. In truth, Grey was himself one of the conspirators who were actively working to bring about the First World War. What’s more, the source of this quotation is in fact Grey himself; it was first recorded in Grey’s own post-war memoir. Any tears he may have shed over the snuffing out of those lamps were crocodile tears, to be sure.
One can well imagine that the history books of your era will record that Bill Gates made a similarly portentous remark at the onset of this corona crisis. Gazing out the window of his $127.5 million, 66,000-square foot-Xanadu 2.0 mansion in Washington State—the then-epicenter of the US outbreak—Gates’ post-coronavirus memoir will no doubt tell us that he remarked to an underling, “The lights are going out all across the globe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.”
But his memoir will no doubt fail to inform us that he was smirking as he said it.
To my children, or my children’s children, or whatever remnant of once-free humanity happens to unearth these words in that God-forsaken future we are goose-stepping into: I’m sorry. I failed you. We all failed you.
But remember this: As long as the blood of your forebears flow through your veins, the lamp of human freedom shall not be extinguished forever.
Let it shine, dear sheep. Let it shine.”
This weekly editorial is part of The Corbett Report Subscriber newsletter. To support The Corbett Report and to access the full newsletter, please sign up to become a member of the website.
www.corbettreport.com/letter/
James reads his letter here:


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Ruth’s Chris Made $468 Million in Revenue but Gobbled Up $20 Million in Small Business Relief. The s

Ruth’s Chris Made $468 Million in Revenue but Gobbled Up $20 Million in Small Business Relief. The steakhouse chain has more than 150 locations and $86 million in cash reserves—and it furloughed workers.

When Congress passed the $ 2 trillion stimulus to help the country weather the coronavirus outbreak , it created the Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) —a $ 349 billion fund for small businesses with 500 or fewer employees .
If the business uses more than 75 percent of the low-interest loan to keep paying employees , then the entire amount is forgiven .
In less than two weeks , it was completely out of money , and the Small Business Administration website is refusing any new applications until Congress manages to replenish it .
That seems likely to come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said a $ 300 billion deal is set to close soon , according to NPR .
But more money won ’ t solve one of the fundamental problems with PPP—it ’ s not just small businesses that can make a grab for these small-business loans .
Take , for example , Ruth ’ s Chris Steakhouse , which has more than 150 locations and more than 5,700 employees , and is owned by the publicly traded Ruth ’ s Hospitality Group .
The company made $ 42 million in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last year , which the company partly spent on more than $ 5 million in stock buybacks , and it has $ 86 million in cash reserves .
Ruth ’ s Hospitality Group successfully applied for the maximum $ 10 million in PPP loans for two of its properties , even as the company reports that it has furloughed a “ significant number of field and home office team members.
” Employees told Popular Information that in locations across the country , managers and cooks remain on the payroll , but no other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Indianapolis received a final check in late March for less than $ 150 .
Meanwhile , CEO Cheryl Henry reportedly makes $ 6.1 million a year , with a base salary of $ 650,000 .
The PPP loan is forgivable as long as a company spends at least 75 percent of the funds on salaries up to $ 100,000 .
As Popular Information reports , Ruth ’ s Hospitality could make that threshold merely by keeping on 150 employees .

via gq
When Congress passed the $2 trillion stimulus to help the country weather the coronavirus outbreak, it created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—a $349 billion fund for small businesses with 500 or fewer employees. If the business uses more than 75 percent of the low-interest loan to keep paying employees, then the entire amount is forgiven. In less than two weeks, it was completely out of money, and the Small Business Administration website is refusing any new applications until Congress manages to replenish it. That seems likely to come through in the near future, since Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said a $300 billion deal is set to close soon, according to NPR. But more money won’t solve one of the fundamental problems with PPP—it’s not just small businesses that can make a grab for these small-business loans.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Take, for example, Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, which has more than 150 locations and more than 5,700 employees, and is owned by the publicly traded Ruth’s Hospitality Group. The company made $42 million in profit on $468 million in revenue last year, which the company partly spent on more than $5 million in stock buybacks, and it has $86 million in cash reserves. Ruth’s Hospitality Group successfully applied for the maximum $10 million in PPP loans for two of its properties, even as the company reports that it has furloughed a “significant number of field and home office team members.”
Employees told Popular Information that in locations across the country, managers and cooks remain on the payroll, but no other hourly employees. One furloughed worker in Indianapolis received a final check in late March for less than $150. Meanwhile, CEO Cheryl Henry reportedly makes $6.1 million a year, with a base salary of $650,000. The PPP loan is forgivable as long as a company spends at least 75 percent of the funds on salaries up to $100,000. As Popular Information reports, Ruth’s Hospitality could make that threshold merely by keeping on 150 employees.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--“People shouldn’t be afraid of their government. Governments should be afraid of their people.” ― Al

” Words offer the means to meaning , and for those who will listen , the enunciation of truth .
And the truth is , there is something terribly wrong with this country , isn ’ t there ?
” ” Cruelty and injustice , intolerance and oppression .
And where once you had the freedom to object , to think and speak as you saw fit , you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission.
” ‘ How did this happen ?
Who ’ s to blame ?
Well certainly there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they will be held accountable , but again truth be told , if you ’ re looking for the guilty , you need only look into a mirror.
” ‘ I know why you did it .
I know you were afraid .
Who wouldn ’ t be ?
War , terror , disease .
There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense .
” Since mankind ’ s dawn , a handful of oppressors have accepted the responsibility over our lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
By doing so , they took our power .
I shall die here .
Every last inch of me shall perish .
Except one .
An inch .
It ’ s small and it ’ s fragile and it ’ s the only thing in the world worth having .
we must never lose it , or sell it , or give it away .
We must never let them take it from us.
” “ People shouldn ’ t be afraid of their government .
Governments should be afraid of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Vendetta

by jdd7690
”Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn’t there? ”
”Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission.”
‘How did this happen? Who’s to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you’re looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
‘I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn’t be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. ”
Since mankind’s dawn, a handful of oppressors have accepted the responsibility over our lives that we should have accepted for ourselves. By doing so, they took our power.
I shall die here. Every last inch of me shall perish. Except one. An inch. It’s small and it’s fragile and it’s the only thing in the world worth having. we must never lose it, or sell it, or give it away. We must never let them take it from us.”
“People shouldn’t be afraid of their government. Governments should be afraid of their people.” ― Alan Moore, V for Vendetta


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Cover 19 Could Lead to the Return of Inflation, Eventually… Record government and corporate debt ris

Cover 19 Could Lead to the Return of Inflation, Eventually… Record government and corporate debt risks ‘tipping point’ after pandemic passes

Cover 19 Could Lead to the Return of Inflation , Eventually : The Economist Once the virus is truly beaten , the crisis could weaken structural forces weighing on demand… I rich world resembles a fairy-tale beast .
Older members of society frighten younger ones with stories of the creature ’ s foul deeds , but few serious people expect to see one and some doubt it ever existed .
Although high inflation seemed a fixture of the economic landscape in the 1970s , changes to policy and the structure of the global economy since have ushered in four decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As covid-19 shutters businesses and leaves supermarket shelves bare , some economists fret that the pandemic could lead to inflation making an unwelcome return .
Though the future is shrouded in more uncertainty than ever , inflation seems unlikely to rear its head—until , perhaps , the world ’ s struggle with covid-19 nears its end .
The US is embarking on a rapid-fire experiment in borrowing without precedent , as the government and corporations take on trillions of dollars of debt to offset the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year to spending nearly $ 4 trillion more than it collects in revenue , analysts say , a budget deficit roughly twice as large relative to the economy as in any year since 1945. Business borrowing also is setting records .
Giant corporations such as ExxonMobil and Walgreens , which binged on debt over the past decade , now are exhausting their credit lines and are tapping bondholders for even more cash .

Once the virus is truly beaten, the crisis could weaken structural forces weighing on demand…
I nflation in the rich world resembles a fairy-tale beast. Older members of society frighten younger ones with stories of the creature’s foul deeds, but few serious people expect to see one and some doubt it ever existed. Although high inflation seemed a fixture of the economic landscape in the 1970s, changes to policy and the structure of the global economy since have ushered in four decades of ever meeker growth in prices. As covid-19 shutters businesses and leaves supermarket shelves bare, some economists fret that the pandemic could lead to inflation making an unwelcome return. Though the future is shrouded in more uncertainty than ever, inflation seems unlikely to rear its head—until, perhaps, the world’s struggle with covid-19 nears its end.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The US is embarking on a rapid-fire experiment in borrowing without precedent, as the government and corporations take on trillions of dollars of debt to offset the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic. The federal government is on its way this year to spending nearly $4 trillion more than it collects in revenue, analysts say, a budget deficit roughly twice as large relative to the economy as in any year since 1945.
Business borrowing also is setting records. Giant corporations such as ExxonMobil and Walgreens, which binged on debt over the past decade, now are exhausting their credit lines and are tapping bondholders for even more cash.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--To those who have had to close permanently.

Don ’ t ever feel bad about having to look for a new job .
You took a risk , which didn ’ t work out due to extraordinary circumstances , but at least you tried .
Some people never take that chance – they sit at their desk , collect their pay and go home .
That ’ s okay , too .
It ’ s just a different path .
Being a small business owner , whether successful or not , shows that you have the courage , the brains , the ambition , and the passion to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all great qualities .
Most importantly , it shows you have the ability to get things done .
You took an idea and made it real .
You put in so much time and effort filling out those forms , sourcing products , creating a client base , and transforming nothing into something .
Not many people can say they did that .
It didn ’ t work out , through no fault of your own , but you learned more than some people do in a lifetime .
You learned about business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about marketing , about taxes and loans , about profit and loss , and mostly about your passion .
I know it seems like everything you ’ ve worked for is crumbling , and it might be , but just know that you ’ ll be okay .
You ’ re smarter , more organized , and more ambitious than most other people .
Even if you can ’ t reopen your business , you ’ ll find something new because you can .
I have no doubt .
And never be ashamed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to get .
Whether it ’ s office work or slinging burgers , hard work is good and honest work .
Never feel bad because your trying to provide for your family and for making sure there ’ s food on the table .
We ’ ll all get through this one way or another .
Together .

by Codex432
Don’t ever feel bad about having to look for a new job. You took a risk, which didn’t work out due to extraordinary circumstances, but at least you tried. Some people never take that chance – they sit at their desk, collect their pay and go home. That’s okay, too. It’s just a different path.
Being a small business owner, whether successful or not, shows that you have the courage, the brains, the ambition, and the passion to reach towards something bigger.
Those are all great qualities.
Most importantly, it shows you have the ability to get things done. You took an idea and made it real. You put in so much time and effort filling out those forms, sourcing products, creating a client base, and transforming nothing into something. Not many people can say they did that.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It didn’t work out, through no fault of your own, but you learned more than some people do in a lifetime. You learned about business, about people and customer relations, about marketing, about taxes and loans, about profit and loss, and mostly about your passion.
I know it seems like everything you’ve worked for is crumbling, and it might be, but just know that you’ll be okay. You’re smarter, more organized, and more ambitious than most other people. Even if you can’t reopen your business, you’ll find something new because you can. I have no doubt.
And never be ashamed by what type of job you might have to get. Whether it’s office work or slinging burgers, hard work is good and honest work. Never feel bad because your trying to provide for your family and for making sure there’s food on the table.
We’ll all get through this one way or another. Together.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--The people that made the most money during the gold rush didn’t mine for gold. They sold shovels.

I ’ ve seen a lot of posts about people speculating which pharmaceutical company is going to make the next big vaccine or test for COVID-19 .
In my opinion , making bets like this is a total gamble , and these companies will fluctuate with news of trials that may or may not be true .
Buying calls on pharmaceutical companies is like trying to bet on a mining company during the gold rush ; a total chance on who will strike gold and get rich .
I propose an alternate play here .
The companies that sell the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for these companies to continue to do research and development .
Regardless of who comes up with a solution , there are a few companies making an absolute killing while all of this goes on .
These are the shovel sellers .
I ’ m going to share a couple of my plays , and I ’ d encourage others to share their thoughts or any other plays that fit into this category .
Veeva Systems creates software that is specifically tailored to the life sciences and pharmaceuticals industry .
Their platform is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virtual meetings , manage customers and data , and more .
Certain aspects of their platform such as Veeva Engage , a tool built on top of Zoom for meeting with Healthcare professionals , have seen insane growth in usage .
www.pulsedigital.co.uk/blog/post/covid-19-pandemic-leads-to-a-tenfold-increase-in-usage-of-veeva-engage The reason I like Veeva so much is that because they are in such a compliant industry , many parts of their platform have basically no competition .
A great example of this is with their CRM .
It can cost millions of dollars to buy a CRM system ( i.e @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hubspot , etc . )
and customize it to your business .
Veeva licensed Salesforce and customized it to the needs of an entire industry over a decade , to the point that it would almost impossible for their customers to build their own systems , or for another software company to make something that ’ s up to par .
They also have tons of cash and no debt , which is a major bonus .
Position : I ’ ve been holding 5/15 $ 190 calls for a couple weeks ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to buy a few higher OTM calls with strikes later this year .
This is an extremely safe position ( the stock not the FD ) whether you ’ re bullish or bearish on the market overall , so I expect more people to pile into Veeva .
Thermo Fisher is a manufacturer and distributor of laboratory equipment and supplies .
Thermo Fisher supplies all of the tools necessary for laboratories to keep up production .
This includes everything from test tubes and vials , to masks and PPE , to the heavy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re even developing their own COVID-19 tests : I like Thermo because they stand to make a killing even after a vaccine is found , because they sell equipment used in the manufacture of tests and vaccines that will be in high demand as production ramps up , regardless of who discovers the best method .
Positions : I have 6/19 $ 350 calls .
I ’ m planning to buy more long-dated calls ( probably Jan ’ 22 ) that will cover through the manufacturing period .
TL : DR There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pharmaceutical industry .
I ’ ve found that betting on these is a hell of a lot safer than betting on individual companies to develop a test or vaccine .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by jlusales
I’ve seen a lot of posts about people speculating which pharmaceutical company is going to make the next big vaccine or test for COVID-19. In my opinion, making bets like this is a total gamble, and these companies will fluctuate with news of trials that may or may not be true. Buying calls on pharmaceutical companies is like trying to bet on a mining company during the gold rush; a total chance on who will strike gold and get rich.
I propose an alternate play here. The companies that sell the equipment and supplies that make it possible for these companies to continue to do research and development. Regardless of who comes up with a solution, there are a few companies making an absolute killing while all of this goes on. These are the shovel sellers.
I’m going to share a couple of my plays, and I’d encourage others to share their thoughts or any other plays that fit into this category.

Play #1: Veeva Systems (VEEV)
Veeva Systems creates software that is specifically tailored to the life sciences and pharmaceuticals industry. Their platform is used to manage clinical trials, have virtual meetings, manage customers and data, and more.

Certain aspects of their platform such as Veeva Engage, a tool built on top of Zoom for meeting with Healthcare professionals, have seen insane growth in usage.
www.pulsedigital.co.uk/blog/post/covid-19-pandemic-leads-to-a-tenfold-increase-in-usage-of-veeva-engage
The reason I like Veeva so much is that because they are in such a compliant industry, many parts of their platform have basically no competition. A great example of this is with their CRM. It can cost millions of dollars to buy a CRM system (i.e. Salesforce, Dynamics, Zoho, Hubspot, etc.) and customize it to your business. Veeva licensed Salesforce and customized it to the needs of an entire industry over a decade, to the point that it would almost impossible for their customers to build their own systems, or for another software company to make something that’s up to par. They also have tons of cash and no debt, which is a major bonus.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Position: I’ve been holding 5/15 $190 calls for a couple weeks (already printing), and I plan to buy a few higher OTM calls with strikes later this year. This is an extremely safe position (the stock not the FD) whether you’re bullish or bearish on the market overall, so I expect more people to pile into Veeva.
Play #2 – Thermo-Fisher Scientific (TMO)
Thermo Fisher is a manufacturer and distributor of laboratory equipment and supplies.
Thermo Fisher supplies all of the tools necessary for laboratories to keep up production. This includes everything from test tubes and vials, to masks and PPE, to the heavy equipment used to test samples. They’re even developing their own COVID-19 tests:
finance.yahoo.com/news/thermo-fisher-scientific-receives-ce-060000782.html
I like Thermo because they stand to make a killing even after a vaccine is found, because they sell equipment used in the manufacture of tests and vaccines that will be in high demand as production ramps up, regardless of who discovers the best method.
Positions: I have 6/19 $350 calls. I’m planning to buy more long-dated calls (probably Jan ’22) that will cover through the manufacturing period.
TL:DR There are a few companies that supply the pharmaceutical industry. I’ve found that betting on these is a hell of a lot safer than betting on individual companies to develop a test or vaccine.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Restaurants Describe Huge Shortfalls Within Government’s Relief Programs

• Sixty percent of restaurant owners say that existing federal relief programs won ’ t be enough to keep employees on payroll during the downturn , a new survey from the National Restaurant Association says .
• A separate survey from the National Small Business Association finds that just 5 % of small business respondents that applied for an EIDL loan have received any money so far , while a quarter of businesses say they ’ ve received PPP funding .
• Restaurants reported $ 30 billion in losses in March , a projected $ 50 billion in losses in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a $ 240 billion Covid-19-related loss nationwide by the end of the year .
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to take its toll on the U.S. economy , a new survey from the National Restaurant Association lays out how dire the situation is for the industry .
More than two-thirds of the restaurant workforce , or 8 million employees , have lost their jobs as shelter-in-place orders and mandatory closures have severely impacted the industry ’ s ability to conduct business .
What ’ s more , 60 % of restaurant owners say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the CARES Act , which allocated some $ 350 billion in relief for small businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program , won ’ t be enough to keep employees on payroll during the downturn .
Restaurants reported $ 30 billion in losses in March , a projected $ 50 billion in losses in April , and are teeing up for a $ 240 billion Covid-19-related loss nationwide by the end of the year .
Prior to Covid-19 , the industry had been projecting $ 899 billion in sales this year , with 15.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Sixty percent of restaurant owners say that existing federal relief programs won’t be enough to keep employees on payroll during the downturn, a new survey from the National Restaurant Association says.
A separate survey from the National Small Business Association finds that just 5% of small business respondents that applied for an EIDL loan have received any money so far, while a quarter of businesses say they’ve received PPP funding.
Restaurants reported $30 billion in losses in March, a projected $50 billion in losses in April, and are teeing up for a $240 billion Covid-19-related loss nationwide by the end of the year.
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to take its toll on the U.S. economy, a new survey from the National Restaurant Association lays out how dire the situation is for the industry. More than two-thirds of the restaurant workforce, or 8 million employees, have lost their jobs as shelter-in-place orders and mandatory closures have severely impacted the industry’s ability to conduct business.
What’s more, 60% of restaurant owners say that existing federal relief programs, including the CARES Act, which allocated some $350 billion in relief for small businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program, won’t be enough to keep employees on payroll during the downturn.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Restaurants reported $30 billion in losses in March, a projected $50 billion in losses in April, and are teeing up for a $240 billion Covid-19-related loss nationwide by the end of the year. Prior to Covid-19, the industry had been projecting $899 billion in sales this year, with 15.6 million employees, the association said.
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-restaurants-describe-huge-shortfalls-with-government-aid.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Is the Extreme High in the Gold/Silver Ratio Setting Up For an Extreme Reversal?

There are a few times in an investor ’ s life where , as Jim Rogers once put it , you see a pile of money sitting in a corner and you can go pick it up .
In other words , an investment opportunity that ’ s not just obvious , but has a high reward-to-risk ratio .
It may not have been expected by many investors , but the gold/silver ratio ( gold price divided by the silver price ) has stretched to never-before-seen levels .
It ’ s soared to not just a generational high , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years of history .
Does this extreme reading suggest there is a pile of money sitting in a corner that we can go pick up ?
At a minimum it suggests a highly compelling investment opportunity .
Let ’ s take a look at the ratio and see what message it might be sending… Three Centuries of the Gold/Silver Ratio To put the current gold/silver ratio into perspective , it ’ s useful to look at its long-term history .
That can tell us where we sit today .
In various periods throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fixed .
Sometimes one or the other , sometimes both , occasionally neither .
But this picture of the past 333 years puts a glaring spotlight on the extreme ratio we have today .
In all of recorded history , the gold/silver ratio has never registered a reading this high .
The recent high of 123.5 was recorded on March 17 , but it still remains highly elevated in historical context .
Let ’ s zoom in on the past few decades for a closer look .
The following chart shows the modern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the current reading .
The prior record high was 100.8 in 1991 .
The new high is now 22.5 % above that all-time high .
In contrast , you can see that in 1980 it bottomed at 14 .
The gold price has climbed in response to Covid-19 headlines , while silver has not .
Gold ended the first quarter of 2020 up 5.6 % , while silver fell 22.8 % .
In fact , it was silver ’ s worst quarter since 2013 .
Perhaps this is not surprising : investors rushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ swan event spread , but since that event was deflationary they didn ’ t turn to silver .
As much as 88 % of silver is used in non-monetary applications—jewelry , industrial , silverware , religious objects , etc.
, implying demand would fall for those items in an economic pullback .
It may take inflation to reverse silver ’ s lagging performance and begin to outperform gold ( and thus push the ratio down ) , or perhaps some other monetary event , but what we do know is that if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time in history .
What might silver ’ s gains look like ?
Here ’ s an analysis of some of those prior reversals… You notice from the above charts that there are plenty of times where the gold/silver ratio soars and plenty of times where it drops .
When it falls , silver is outperforming gold—that can be because it ’ s falling less than the gold price is falling , but it ’ s usually because it ’ s climbing more than gold .
Check out silver ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent declines in the ratio .
Silver outperformed gold anywhere from one to over four times .
And that was with the ratio falling from 80 to 40 or 30 .
With the ratio now over 110 , history suggests a snapback rally could be enormous , meaning silver ’ s outperformance of gold could easily be measured in hundreds of percent .
• The gold/silver ratio may not be done climbing , but the value offered by silver , relative to gold , is hard to overstate .
History suggests that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t last .
And that the reversal , whenever it comes , could be breathtaking .
So , to answer our earlier question… Yes , you might even say that buying silver at this juncture is akin to seeing a pile of money sitting in the corner and walking over to pick it up .

by Jeff Clark
There are a few times in an investor’s life where, as Jim Rogers once put it, you see a pile of money sitting in a corner and you can go pick it up. In other words, an investment opportunity that’s not just obvious, but has a high reward-to-risk ratio.
It may not have been expected by many investors, but the gold/silver ratio (gold price divided by the silver price) has stretched to never-before-seen levels. It’s soared to not just a generational high, but a historic high. As in 5,000 years of history.
Does this extreme reading suggest there is a pile of money sitting in a corner that we can go pick up? At a minimum it suggests a highly compelling investment opportunity.
Let’s take a look at the ratio and see what message it might be sending…
Three Centuries of the Gold/Silver Ratio
To put the current gold/silver ratio into perspective, it’s useful to look at its long-term history. That can tell us where we sit today.
In various periods throughout history gold and silver prices have been fixed. Sometimes one or the other, sometimes both, occasionally neither. But this picture of the past 333 years puts a glaring spotlight on the extreme ratio we have today.
In all of recorded history, the gold/silver ratio has never registered a reading this high. The recent high of 123.5 was recorded on March 17, but it still remains highly elevated in historical context.
Let’s zoom in on the past few decades for a closer look. The following chart shows the modern day high and low, along with the current reading.
The prior record high was 100.8 in 1991. The new high is now 22.5% above that all-time high. In contrast, you can see that in 1980 it bottomed at 14.
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The gold price has climbed in response to Covid-19 headlines, while silver has not. Gold ended the first quarter of 2020 up 5.6%, while silver fell 22.8%. In fact, it was silver’s worst quarter since 2013.
Perhaps this is not surprising: investors rushed to gold as fears of the black swan event spread, but since that event was deflationary they didn’t turn to silver. As much as 88% of silver is used in non-monetary applications—jewelry, industrial, silverware, religious objects, etc., implying demand would fall for those items in an economic pullback.
It may take inflation to reverse silver’s lagging performance and begin to outperform gold (and thus push the ratio down), or perhaps some other monetary event, but what we do know is that if the ratio did not reverse it would be the first time in history.
What might silver’s gains look like? Here’s an analysis of some of those prior reversals…
What a Declining Ratio Means for Silver Performance
You notice from the above charts that there are plenty of times where the gold/silver ratio soars and plenty of times where it drops. When it falls, silver is outperforming gold—that can be because it’s falling less than the gold price is falling, but it’s usually because it’s climbing more than gold.
Check out silver’s gains over gold in the four most recent declines in the ratio.
Silver outperformed gold anywhere from one to over four times. And that was with the ratio falling from 80 to 40 or 30. With the ratio now over 110, history suggests a snapback rally could be enormous, meaning silver’s outperformance of gold could easily be measured in hundreds of percent.
The gold/silver ratio may not be done climbing, but the value offered by silver, relative to gold, is hard to overstate.
History suggests that the extreme levels in the gold/silver ratio won’t last. And that the reversal, whenever it comes, could be breathtaking.
So, to answer our earlier question… Yes, you might even say that buying silver at this juncture is akin to seeing a pile of money sitting in the corner and walking over to pick it up.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Morgan Stanley: COVID-19 and Its Effects on the US Economic Outlook

As of April 9 , financial conditions remained tight , but had eased somewhat after the Fed ’ s announcement @ @ @ @ @ • Broad financial conditions remain about 138bp tighter since the middle of February , and @ @ @ @ @ Treasury yields financial conditions remain about 180bp tighter of that same period .
But notably @ @ @ @ @ level for both broad financial conditions and ex Treasuries FCI since March 13 .
• @ @ @ @ @ The Treasury will issue significant amounts of new Treasuries to finance the $ 2tn CARES @ @ @ @ @ the Fed to keep buying Treasuries in QE ( $ 4- $ 5tn total , @ @ @ @ @ We expect Treasury issuance to complement Fed buying with the Fed switching to buying more @ @ @ @ @ issuing in the front end ( seeing its current WAM as appropriate ) .

www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/advisory_panel/eap/eap_2020_zentner-presentation.pdf?la=en
As of April 9, financial conditions remained tight, but had eased somewhat after the Fed’s announcement of expanded credit facilities.
• Broad financial conditions remain about 138bp tighter since the middle of February, and excluding the effect of lower Treasury yields financial conditions remain about 180bp tighter of that same period. But notably, this is the easiest level for both broad financial conditions and ex Treasuries FCI since March 13.
• Portfolio balance channel focus: The Treasury will issue significant amounts of new Treasuries to finance the $2tn CARES Act, and we expect the Fed to keep buying Treasuries in QE ($4-$5tn total, in our view). We expect Treasury issuance to complement Fed buying with the Fed switching to buying more back-end Treasuries and the Treasury issuing in the front end (seeing its current WAM as appropriate).


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Is Oil the Canary in the Coal Mine for a $640 Trillion Derivatives Disaster?

Let ’ s talk about what just happened with Oil prices .
Yesterday , Oil dropped to - $ 40 per barrel .
That is not a typo .
Oil was priced at NEGATIVE $ 40 .
On Friday , it was priced at $ 27 per barrel .
How is this possible ?
This is possible because of derivatives : financial instruments that trade in opaque markets , with little oversight , and which regulators , including Congress , have permitted to become a systemic problem .
In its simplest rendering , yesterday oil traders who owned oil derivatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these derivatives , they ( the traders ) would have to actually take delivery on the physical oil they owned .
We ’ re talking thousands and thousands of oil barrels being delivered .
The traders don ’ t want the actual physical oil .
They simply want to be able to trade oil prices .
So , they dumped their derivatives at any price… including PAYING someone to take the derivatives off of their hands .
This is how you get NEGATIVE oil prices .
And it reveals the degree to which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with derivatives , leverage , and financial trickery .
Even worse , Oil is not the only asset class that has been overrun with derivatives .
The bulk of trading in every commodity , including gold , involves derivatives .
The same is true of BONDS .
Derivatives are used to hide losses , manipulate prices , and even fake profits .
They are a massive problem that nearly blew up the financial system in 2008… and as oil ’ s implosion yesterday revealed , remain a major problem today as well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
The last official data on the global derivatives market puts it at $ 640 TRILLION , or over SEVEN TIMES GLOBAL GDP .
What happened in oil is a signal that this financial monstrosity is once again rearing its head .
The question now is just how horrific the carnage will be .

Let’s talk about what just happened with Oil prices.
Yesterday, Oil dropped to -$40 per barrel. That is not a typo. Oil was priced at NEGATIVE $40.
On Friday, it was priced at $27 per barrel.
How is this possible?
This is possible because of derivatives: financial instruments that trade in opaque markets, with little oversight, and which regulators, including Congress, have permitted to become a systemic problem.
In its simplest rendering, yesterday oil traders who owned oil derivatives realized that if they continued to hold these derivatives, they (the traders) would have to actually take delivery on the physical oil they owned. We’re talking thousands and thousands of oil barrels being delivered.
The traders don’t want the actual physical oil. They simply want to be able to trade oil prices. So, they dumped their derivatives at any price… including PAYING someone to take the derivatives off of their hands.
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This is how you get NEGATIVE oil prices. And it reveals the degree to which the financial system has become totally overrun with derivatives, leverage, and financial trickery.
Even worse, Oil is not the only asset class that has been overrun with derivatives. The bulk of trading in every commodity, including gold, involves derivatives. The same is true of BONDS.
Derivatives are used to hide losses, manipulate prices, and even fake profits. They are a massive problem that nearly blew up the financial system in 2008… and as oil’s implosion yesterday revealed, remain a major problem today as well.
How big a problem are we talking?
The last official data on the global derivatives market puts it at $640 TRILLION, or over SEVEN TIMES GLOBAL GDP.
What happened in oil is a signal that this financial monstrosity is once again rearing its head. The question now is just how horrific the carnage will be.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--COVID-19 ‘Survival Kits’ | Most vulnerable New Yorkers get help for free

The most vulnerable New Yorkers get ‘ COVID-19 street survival kits ’ that include a broad range of products , @ @ @ @ @ first aid supplies to flashlights & duct tape .
The non-profit organization Interactive America , @ @ @ @ @ at the charity event held in Manhattan ’ s Union Square .

The most vulnerable New Yorkers get ‘COVID-19 street survival kits’ that include a broad range of products, from personal protection equipment & first aid supplies to flashlights & duct tape.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The non-profit organization Interactive America, Inc. donated dozens of kits at the charity event held in Manhattan’s Union Square.