investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World

Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World

It should be pretty obvious that we need to rethink how our supply chains are constructed .
The U.S. is running out of something as simple as mouth-testing swabs .
It seems the entire world supply is made by two companies .
When asked where I thought those were , I replied “ China.
” It is worse .
They are both in Milan , Italy .
Milan is currently under siege in total lockdown , and the swabs are stranded on the docks in their own kind of quarantine .
The link in that supply chain has snapped .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the concept of social distancing .
We need to think about economic distancing .
When we have economic partners who act irrationally … hiding data about a new virus for months … allowing it to spread worldwide … and destroying supply chains in the meantime … how much do we want to rely on them in the future ?
Every major flu of the past 20 years has come out of China .
Just saying .
This is a virus we can beat .
Along the way we are going to learn many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not forget them .
Countries that want to hide their data are candidates for economic distancing .
Now let ’ s look at some positives … • Jobs and manufacturing were already migrating closer to the marketplaces of end users , albeit using robots and 3D printing .
But that still means jobs .
• This trend shift away from globalization and toward localization will accelerate .
Over time , that means a lot more jobs in North America and Europe .
And that will build more reliable supply chains .
Next , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical medical and socially necessary products are made .
We can ’ t fix it all at once , but we should be seriously toeing the starting blocks right now .
• Once the CDC and FDA stopped trying to control things and got out of the way , we started seeing a “ Cambrian Explosion ” of innovation and drugs to deal with COVID-19 .
The Milken Institute has a list of 101 different vaccines and drugs that are in development or being tested .
• Freed of government regulation , doctors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can reduce the time a patient is sick from 11 days to four days .
That will greatly increase the survival rate .
It turns out the malaria drug has a significant effect .
Who knew ?
Well , pretty much nobody until doctors began throwing everything against the wall to see what would stick .
• People have started to post do-it-yourself ventilators made from parts you can buy at a hardware store .
Put some of those idled automobile and Boeing workers on an assembly line .
History note : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bombers in World War II .
American ingenuity can help us a great deal .
Dr. Mike Roizen asked me to emphasize that there are things you can do to improve your own immunity .
His top three : Get a lot of sleep , eat healthy , and manage your stress .
I would add as much social distancing as you practically can .
We can do this .
And when I say “ we , ” I mean myself and my American investor-readers , because our country has blessed us greatly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through this .
Not everyone does .
In fact , relatively few do .
We are the fortunate ones .
This is our calling and our responsibility .
Not only can we do it , we must do it .
If you are not in America , you can do it as well .
I am pulling for everyone in the world .
Every country is going to have to figure out how to deal with its own problems .
We need a world that is thriving and growing so that humanity can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Hang in there .
There is going to be so much opportunity as we come out of this .
All the opportunities that I ’ ve been talking and writing about over the years are not going away .
Just postponed for a few months .

by John Mauldin
It should be pretty obvious that we need to rethink how our supply chains are constructed. The U.S. is running out of something as simple as mouth-testing swabs. It seems the entire world supply is made by two companies.
When asked where I thought those were, I replied “China.” It is worse. They are both in Milan, Italy.
Milan is currently under siege in total lockdown, and the swabs are stranded on the docks in their own kind of quarantine. The link in that supply chain has snapped.
We are now all too familiar with the concept of social distancing. We need to think about economic distancing.
When we have economic partners who act irrationally … hiding data about a new virus for months … allowing it to spread worldwide … and destroying supply chains in the meantime … how much do we want to rely on them in the future? Every major flu of the past 20 years has come out of China. Just saying.
This is a virus we can beat. Along the way we are going to learn many vital lessons, so let’s not forget them. Countries that want to hide their data are candidates for economic distancing.
Now let’s look at some positives …
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Jobs and manufacturing were already migrating closer to the marketplaces of end users, albeit using robots and 3D printing. But that still means jobs.
This trend shift away from globalization and toward localization will accelerate. Over time, that means a lot more jobs in North America and Europe. And that will build more reliable supply chains. Next, we really need to look at where critical medical and socially necessary products are made. We can’t fix it all at once, but we should be seriously toeing the starting blocks right now.
Once the CDC and FDA stopped trying to control things and got out of the way, we started seeing a “Cambrian Explosion” of innovation and drugs to deal with COVID-19. The Milken Institute has a list of 101 different vaccines and drugs that are in development or being tested.
Freed of government regulation, doctors have found that certain drugs already available can reduce the time a patient is sick from 11 days to four days. That will greatly increase the survival rate. It turns out the malaria drug has a significant effect. Who knew? Well, pretty much nobody until doctors began throwing everything against the wall to see what would stick.
People have started to post do-it-yourself ventilators made from parts you can buy at a hardware store. Put some of those idled automobile and Boeing workers on an assembly line. History note: The first ventilators were made by Boeing for bombers in World War II. American ingenuity can help us a great deal.
Dr. Mike Roizen asked me to emphasize that there are things you can do to improve your own immunity. His top three: Get a lot of sleep, eat healthy, and manage your stress. I would add as much social distancing as you practically can.
We can do this.
And when I say “we,” I mean myself and my American investor-readers, because our country has blessed us greatly.
We have the means to get through this. Not everyone does. In fact, relatively few do. We are the fortunate ones. This is our calling and our responsibility. Not only can we do it, we must do it.
If you are not in America, you can do it as well. I am pulling for everyone in the world. Every country is going to have to figure out how to deal with its own problems. We need a world that is thriving and growing so that humanity can move forward to a much brighter future.
Hang in there. There is going to be so much opportunity as we come out of this.
All the opportunities that I’ve been talking and writing about over the years are not going away. Just postponed for a few months.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--ICELAND: Patient Infected With Two Strains of COVID-19

It ’ s been confirmed that an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 in Iceland has been infected by two @ @ @ @ @ .
The second strain is a mutation of the original novel coronavirus .
It is @ @ @ @ @ the first recorded dual infection case of this kind .

It’s been confirmed that an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 in Iceland has been infected by two strains of the virus simultaneously. The second strain is a mutation of the original novel coronavirus. It is thought that this could be the first recorded dual infection case of this kind.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/patient-infected-with-two-strains-of-covid-19-in-iceland/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--FDIC asks Americans to keep their money in the banks

Yesterday the Chair of the FDIC released an astonishing video asking Americans to keep their money in the bank .
Accompanied by soft piano music playing in the background , the official said : “ Your money is safe at the banks .
The last thing you should be doing is pulling your money out of the banks thinking it ’ s going to be safer somewhere else.
” Amazing .
I was half expecting her to waive her hand and say , “ These aren ’ t the droids you ’ re looking for… ” As I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 250 TRILLION worth of debt in the world right now : student debt , housing debt , credit card debt , government debt , corporate debt , etc .
And let ’ s be honest , some of that debt is simply not going to be paid .
Millions of people have already lost their jobs .
Millions more ( like the 10 million waiters and bartenders across America ) are barely earning anything right now because their businesses are closed .
A lot of those folks have no emergency savings to fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so they ’ re going to be forced to choose : pay the rent , or buy food .
The government has already suspended evictions and foreclosures , which is a green light for people to stop paying the rent or mortgage .
And that means banks will take it in the teeth .
This is what happened back in 2008– millions of people across the country stopped paying their mortgages , and the banking system nearly collapsed as a result .
Today it ’ s a similar situation ; a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mortgages , credit cards , auto loans , etc .
And that directly impacts the banks .
Businesses are in deep financial trouble too .
According to the Wall Street Journal , the median small business in the United States has a cash balance that will last them just 27 days .
And many are operating with an even smaller safety net ; the median restaurant , for example , has a cash balance of just 16 days .
These businesses have been told to close down due to the Corona Virus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of them will never re-open .
A lot of these companies also have debt .
And if they close , those debts will never be repaid .
Even big businesses are susceptible to failure .
Every airline , cruise ship operator , hotel , retail chain , etc .
is on the ropes , and each of these companies has borrowed billions of dollars .
This pandemic could easily push several big companies into bankruptcy .
You probably know that old saying– if you owe the bank a million dollars and can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If you owe the bank a billion dollars and can ’ t pay , the bank has a problem .
That ’ s what we ’ re seeing now .
Countless unemployed individuals , millions of shuttered small businesses , and bankrupt big companies collectively owe the banks trillions of dollars .
And many of them can ’ t pay… which means the entire banking system has a problem .
How much money will the banks lose because of this pandemic ?
It could easily end up being hundreds of billions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No one knows .
But it ’ s not going to be zero .
It ’ s silly to think that banks are immune to the Corona virus , or to assume that not a single bank is going to run into problems .
Don ’ t get me wrong– I ’ m saying that the banking system is about to collapse .
There are stronger banks and weaker banks .
Many of them will survive , others will fail .
What I am saying is that there are enormous and obvious risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve written several times over the past few weeks : Anyone who says , “ No , that ’ s impossible , ” clearly doesn ’ t have a grasp of what ’ s happening right now .
EVERY scenario is on the table , including severe problems in the banking system .
But the FDIC insists that there ’ s nothing to worry about .
That ’ s ridiculous .
The FDIC only has $ 109 billion to insure the entire $ 13 trillion US banking system .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FDIC also insists that they ’ ve always been able to prevent depositors from losing money .
“ Not a single depositor has lost money since 1933.
” And that ’ s true .
But they ’ ve never had to deal with this before .
Neither the FDIC , nor any bank , has ever had to deal with a complete shutdown of the economy… or potential losses of this magnitude .
The Covid-19 impact on the banking system could be 10x bigger than the housing meltdown in 2008 .
If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of loan losses , the FDIC won ’ t have enough ammunition to fix it… and that doesn ’ t even consider trillions of dollars more in potentially toxic derivatives exposure .
So to casually brush off these risks and claim that everything is 100 % safe seems incomprehensible .
It also raises an interesting point : why is the FDIC asking us to NOT withdraw our savings ?
If the financial system is so safe , it shouldn ’ t matter to them whether or not people keep their money in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to specifically ask people to NOT withdraw their money… and tell us that we shouldn ’ t keep cash at home .
I ’ ll reiterate a point that we ’ ve made again and again at Sovereign Man over the years : it makes sense to have some physical cash in an at-home safe .
I ’ m not suggesting you keep your life ’ s savings in physical cash .
But a month or two worth of expenses won ’ t hurt .
There ’ s very little downside– your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyhow , so it ’ s not like you will be giving up a ton of interest income .
And given that the FDIC is specifically saying that you shouldn ’ t do this , a prudent person might wonder what ’ s really going on .

by Simon Black
Yesterday the Chair of the FDIC released an astonishing video asking Americans to keep their money in the bank.
Accompanied by soft piano music playing in the background, the official said:
“Your money is safe at the banks. The last thing you should be doing is pulling your money out of the banks thinking it’s going to be safer somewhere else.”
Amazing. I was half expecting her to waive her hand and say, “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…”
As I’ve written before, there’s $250 TRILLION worth of debt in the world right now: student debt, housing debt, credit card debt, government debt, corporate debt, etc.
And let’s be honest, some of that debt is simply not going to be paid.
Millions of people have already lost their jobs. Millions more (like the 10 million waiters and bartenders across America) are barely earning anything right now because their businesses are closed.
A lot of those folks have no emergency savings to fall back on during times of crisis, so they’re going to be forced to choose: pay the rent, or buy food.
The government has already suspended evictions and foreclosures, which is a green light for people to stop paying the rent or mortgage.
And that means banks will take it in the teeth.
This is what happened back in 2008– millions of people across the country stopped paying their mortgages, and the banking system nearly collapsed as a result.
Today it’s a similar situation; a lot of people are going to stop paying their mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, etc. And that directly impacts the banks.
Businesses are in deep financial trouble too.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the median small business in the United States has a cash balance that will last them just 27 days.
And many are operating with an even smaller safety net; the median restaurant, for example, has a cash balance of just 16 days.
These businesses have been told to close down due to the Corona Virus. And it’s likely that many of them will never re-open.
A lot of these companies also have debt. And if they close, those debts will never be repaid.
Even big businesses are susceptible to failure.
Every airline, cruise ship operator, hotel, retail chain, etc. is on the ropes, and each of these companies has borrowed billions of dollars.
This pandemic could easily push several big companies into bankruptcy.
You probably know that old saying– if you owe the bank a million dollars and can’t pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank a billion dollars and can’t pay, the bank has a problem.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
That’s what we’re seeing now.
Countless unemployed individuals, millions of shuttered small businesses, and bankrupt big companies collectively owe the banks trillions of dollars. And many of them can’t pay… which means the entire banking system has a problem.
How much money will the banks lose because of this pandemic?
It could easily end up being hundreds of billions of dollars, even several trillion dollars.
No one knows. But it’s not going to be zero. It’s silly to think that banks are immune to the Corona virus, or to assume that not a single bank is going to run into problems.
Don’t get me wrong– I’m not saying that the banking system is about to collapse. There are stronger banks and weaker banks. Many of them will survive, others will fail.
What I am saying is that there are enormous and obvious risks that threaten the banking system.
As I’ve written several times over the past few weeks: Anyone who says, “No, that’s impossible,” clearly doesn’t have a grasp of what’s happening right now. EVERY scenario is on the table, including severe problems in the banking system.
But the FDIC insists that there’s nothing to worry about.
That’s ridiculous. The FDIC only has $109 billion to insure the entire $13 trillion US banking system. That’s less than 1%!
The FDIC also insists that they’ve always been able to prevent depositors from losing money. “Not a single depositor has lost money since 1933.” And that’s true.
But they’ve never had to deal with this before. Neither the FDIC, nor any bank, has ever had to deal with a complete shutdown of the economy… or potential losses of this magnitude.
The Covid-19 impact on the banking system could be 10x bigger than the housing meltdown in 2008.
If the pandemic ends up causing trillions of dollars of loan losses, the FDIC won’t have enough ammunition to fix it… and that doesn’t even consider trillions of dollars more in potentially toxic derivatives exposure.
So to casually brush off these risks and claim that everything is 100% safe seems incomprehensible.
It also raises an interesting point: why is the FDIC asking us to NOT withdraw our savings?
If the financial system is so safe, it shouldn’t matter to them whether or not people keep their money in the banks.
Yet they still felt the need to specifically ask people to NOT withdraw their money… and tell us that we shouldn’t keep cash at home.
I’ll reiterate a point that we’ve made again and again at Sovereign Man over the years: it makes sense to have some physical cash in an at-home safe.
I’m not suggesting you keep your life’s savings in physical cash. But a month or two worth of expenses won’t hurt.
There’s very little downside– your bank probably only pays you 0.01% anyhow, so it’s not like you will be giving up a ton of interest income.
And given that the FDIC is specifically saying that you shouldn’t do this, a prudent person might wonder what’s really going on.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Here’s What People Are Running Out of First During the Lockdowns

Here in the United States , many of us are in this strange kind of limbo called “ lockdown.
” Other states call it “ social distancing , ” and still others call it “ sheltering in place.
” California , New York , and Illinois started the ball rolling last Friday , and since then , nearly half of the United States has joined in , to some degree or another .
There are varying degrees of lockdown – nobody in any state is forced to stay inside their home at all times ( barring quarantine due to infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go to the grocery store or take a walk , but many businesses not deemed “ essential ” are closed .
At this point , we ’ re not sure how long the lockdowns will last .
President Trump insisted yesterday in a press conference he ’ d like to see full churches on Easter Sunday , while some more conservative health experts have warned this could continue through June or longer .
Although people can go to the store , many have not .
Some folks are serious about social distancing because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their household who is greatly at risk , while others are waiting for that last paycheck after having been laid off from their jobs .
There ’ s lots of chit chat online about the things people have run out of first , and some of these might be things to note when stocking up for future emergencies .
As well , it ’ s time to tap into your creativity and your problem-solving mindset instead of feeling sorry for yourself .
We ’ re Americans .
We ’ ve been through wars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hardships over our history and we ’ ve come through it stronger and more independent .
This is just another challenge for us to accept and conquer .
( And remember , a good sense of humor about some failed experiments can go a long way . )
Some of the first goods most people opened when the lockdowns began was the snack foods .
Potato chips , cookies , and candy have been the first to go in many households .
Learning how to make your own from scratch is a great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have some tasty treats .
Here ’ s how to make homemade potato chips .
And here ’ s a healthier baked version .
Here are some simple cookie recipes .
Here ’ s how to make your own candy .
Fresh fruits and vegetables are usually the first things to go whenever we on this website have done a stockpile challenge .
There are a few ways to get some fresh veggies in without waiting for them to grow in the garden .
Sprouting is the very fastest way to get your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any home , in any climate – learn more about it here .
Others are starting seeds to get their gardens going the moment the ground warms up enough to do so .
Here ’ s a guide to gardening on a budget .
You may have to move on to frozen and canned veggies if you aren ’ t planning a trip to the store soon .
Frozen vegetables will be the most like fresh .
Canned vegetables may be more welcome if they ’ re included as ingredients in soups or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of bread , there ’ s no better time to learn to make your own , assuming you have the supplies to do so .
Look for simple recipes – don ’ t start out with something super-fancy .
I discovered Gaye Levy ’ s favorite recipe years ago and this is still my go-to homemade bread to go along with a pot of soup .
You can also easily make pizza dough or biscuits .
If you didn ’ t pick up these items , make sure to grab yeast , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your next trip to the store .
Or , you can order yeast , baking powder , and baking soda on Amazon .
You can also try making your own sourdough starter – here are the instructions .
If you ’ ve run out of milk , there isn ’ t really a substitute unless you have powdered or canned milk .
The next time you go to the store , keep in mind that milk can be frozen – just pour out enough to account for expansion when it freezes , thaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well before each use .
You can also pick up some powdered or canned milk from Amazon .
With canned milk , you ’ re looking for evaporated milk , not sweetened condensed milk .
Lots of ladies have expressed regret that they didn ’ t buy any hair color for touching up their roots before everything closed down .
While it isn ’ t salon-quality , you may be able to find a match on Amazon .
I haven ’ t tried any of these , but this article has 7 natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you may have on hand .
One thing people are running through far more quickly than they expected is alcohol .
Whether that ’ s wine , beer , or hard liquor , it ’ s flowing quickly and the folks drinking it have been keeping an eye on their dwindling supplies , dreading the day it runs out .
Now , I ’ m not promoting alcoholism and you may not have the materials to make a still or ferment your own wine .
But in most states , some types of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order food to be delivered to your home ( some don ’ t think it ’ s worth the risk , while others are unconcerned ) many restaurants will also bring wine or beer .
In some states , the liquor store is considered an essential business , while in others you ’ re limited to whatever is available in the grocery store .
Lots of folks have run out of patience , which is something you can ’ t buy at the store .
The kids are fighting , your partner breathes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cooped up within their four walls .
This , of course , you can ’ t buy in stores .
It ’ s a good idea to spend some time in your separate corners if your home allows it .
Use headphones to listen to music and focus on your own hobbies .
Set up virtual playdates for the kids using Facetime or Skype .
Break out the old-fashioned games , make some popcorn , and hang out together as a family .
In most places , you can spend some time in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distance between yourself and other folks .
So a nice walk could help break the monotony or even a hike if you live near a place where that is a possibility .
What ’ s off-limits is going to the playground where other kids will be , congregating together in a group , or having a lot of people ( aside from family ) together in an enclosed space .
What have you run out of ?
Now isn ’ t the time to feel sorry for yourself if you ’ ve run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ d purchased more .
Now is the time for creativity , ingenuity , and a problem-solving mindset .
We could be looking at a different way of life for quite some time , even after the lockdown is lifted , due to a change in economic circumstances .
Instead of letting it get you down , see it as a challenge and learn to come up with viable substitutes for any shortages you may encounter .
Is there anything you wish you ’ d gotten more of before the lockdown ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ share with us ?
Let ’ s talk about it in the comments .

by Daisy Luther
Here in the United States, many of us are in this strange kind of limbo called “lockdown.” Other states call it “social distancing,” and still others call it “sheltering in place.”
California, New York, and Illinois started the ball rolling last Friday, and since then, nearly half of the United States has joined in, to some degree or another. There are varying degrees of lockdown – nobody in any state is forced to stay inside their home at all times (barring quarantine due to infection or exposure.) You can still go to the grocery store or take a walk, but many businesses not deemed “essential” are closed.
At this point, we’re not sure how long the lockdowns will last. President Trump insisted yesterday in a press conference he’d like to see full churches on Easter Sunday, while some more conservative health experts have warned this could continue through June or longer.
Although people can go to the store, many have not. Some folks are serious about social distancing because there’s a loved one in their household who is greatly at risk, while others are waiting for that last paycheck after having been laid off from their jobs. There’s lots of chit chat online about the things people have run out of first, and some of these might be things to note when stocking up for future emergencies.
As well, it’s time to tap into your creativity and your problem-solving mindset instead of feeling sorry for yourself. We’re Americans. We’ve been through wars, shortages, and all sorts of hardships over our history and we’ve come through it stronger and more independent. This is just another challenge for us to accept and conquer. (And remember, a good sense of humor about some failed experiments can go a long way.)
Snacks
Some of the first goods most people opened when the lockdowns began was the snack foods. Potato chips, cookies, and candy have been the first to go in many households. Learning how to make your own from scratch is a great way to pass the time and still have some tasty treats.
Here’s how to make homemade potato chips. And here’s a healthier baked version.
Here are some simple cookie recipes.
Here’s how to make your own candy.
Fresh Produce
Fresh fruits and vegetables are usually the first things to go whenever we on this website have done a stockpile challenge. There are a few ways to get some fresh veggies in without waiting for them to grow in the garden. Sprouting is the very fastest way to get your nutrients and you can do it in any home, in any climate – learn more about it here.
Others are starting seeds to get their gardens going the moment the ground warms up enough to do so. Here’s a guide to gardening on a budget.
You may have to move on to frozen and canned veggies if you aren’t planning a trip to the store soon. Frozen vegetables will be the most like fresh. Canned vegetables may be more welcome if they’re included as ingredients in soups or casseroles.
Bread
If you’ve run out of bread, there’s no better time to learn to make your own, assuming you have the supplies to do so. Look for simple recipes – don’t start out with something super-fancy.
I discovered Gaye Levy’s favorite recipe years ago and this is still my go-to homemade bread to go along with a pot of soup.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
You can also easily make pizza dough or biscuits.
If you didn’t pick up these items, make sure to grab yeast, baking powder, and baking soda on your next trip to the store. Or, you can order yeast, baking powder, and baking soda on Amazon. You can also try making your own sourdough starter – here are the instructions.
Milk
If you’ve run out of milk, there isn’t really a substitute unless you have powdered or canned milk. The next time you go to the store, keep in mind that milk can be frozen – just pour out enough to account for expansion when it freezes, thaw it in the refrigerator, and shake well before each use.
You can also pick up some powdered or canned milk from Amazon. With canned milk, you’re looking for evaporated milk, not sweetened condensed milk.
Hair color
Lots of ladies have expressed regret that they didn’t buy any hair color for touching up their roots before everything closed down. While it isn’t salon-quality, you may be able to find a match on Amazon.
I haven’t tried any of these, but this article has 7 natural hair dyes you can try with items you may have on hand.
Alcohol
One thing people are running through far more quickly than they expected is alcohol. Whether that’s wine, beer, or hard liquor, it’s flowing quickly and the folks drinking it have been keeping an eye on their dwindling supplies, dreading the day it runs out.
Now, I’m not promoting alcoholism and you may not have the materials to make a still or ferment your own wine. But in most states, some types of alcohol are still available. If you order food to be delivered to your home (some don’t think it’s worth the risk, while others are unconcerned) many restaurants will also bring wine or beer. In some states, the liquor store is considered an essential business, while in others you’re limited to whatever is available in the grocery store.
Ration, people. Ration.
Patience
Lots of folks have run out of patience, which is something you can’t buy at the store. The kids are fighting, your partner breathes too loudly, and people are feeling cooped up within their four walls.
This, of course, you can’t buy in stores. It’s a good idea to spend some time in your separate corners if your home allows it. Use headphones to listen to music and focus on your own hobbies. Set up virtual playdates for the kids using Facetime or Skype. Break out the old-fashioned games, make some popcorn, and hang out together as a family.
In most places, you can spend some time in nature as long as you keep some distance between yourself and other folks. So a nice walk could help break the monotony or even a hike if you live near a place where that is a possibility. What’s off-limits is going to the playground where other kids will be, congregating together in a group, or having a lot of people (aside from family) together in an enclosed space.
What have you run out of?
Now isn’t the time to feel sorry for yourself if you’ve run out of something of which you wish you’d purchased more. Now is the time for creativity, ingenuity, and a problem-solving mindset. We could be looking at a different way of life for quite some time, even after the lockdown is lifted, due to a change in economic circumstances.
Instead of letting it get you down, see it as a challenge and learn to come up with viable substitutes for any shortages you may encounter.
Is there anything you wish you’d gotten more of before the lockdown? Have you discovered some workarounds you can share with us? Let’s talk about it in the comments.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Soros Bankrolls Coronavirus Attack Ads Against Trump

The Democratic Party ’ s leading super PAC will begin hitting President Donald Trump over coronavirus in four battleground states , using millions from liberal billionaire George Soros .
Priorities USA Action—the Democratic Party ’ s largest super PAC—will spend $ 6 million this week on advertisements criticizing Trump for his response to the coronavirus pandemic .
The ads will run in Florida , Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin .
The PAC received $ 3 million in contributions from Soros ’ s Democracy PAC on Feb. 21 , new filings show .
Soros ’ s seven-figure donation accounts for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the PAC reported hauling in last month .
Major Democratic donors have flooded battleground states , especially in the Midwest , with cash for anti-Trump campaigns in hopes of appealing to the president ’ s voter base .
CNN first reported Monday on Priorities USA ’ s new ads , which are part of a larger plan by deep-pocketed liberal financiers and activist groups to divert large sums of cash into the region .
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in several Midwestern states that she was expected to carry in the 2016 election .

Soros Bankrolls Coronavirus Attack Ads Against Trump
The Democratic Party’s leading super PAC will begin hitting President Donald Trump over coronavirus in four battleground states, using millions from liberal billionaire George Soros.
Priorities USA Action—the Democratic Party’s largest super PAC—will spend $6 million this week on advertisements criticizing Trump for his response to the coronavirus pandemic. The ads will run in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The PAC received $3 million in contributions from Soros’s Democracy PAC on Feb. 21, new filings show. Soros’s seven-figure donation accounts for 77 percent of the $3.9 million the PAC reported hauling in last month.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Major Democratic donors have flooded battleground states, especially in the Midwest, with cash for anti-Trump campaigns in hopes of appealing to the president’s voter base.
CNN first reported Monday on Priorities USA’s new ads, which are part of a larger plan by deep-pocketed liberal financiers and activist groups to divert large sums of cash into the region. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in several Midwestern states that she was expected to carry in the 2016 election.
freebeacon.com/2020-election/soros-bankrolls-coronavirus-attack-ads-against-trump/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--In October 2019, Dr. Anthony Fauci announced a partnership between the Bill and Melinda Gates Founda

In October 2019 , Dr. Anthony Fauci announced a partnership between the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation ( which gave @ @ @ @ @ the National Institutes of Health for HIV treatment “ This collaboration is an ambitious step @ @ @ @

In October 2019, Dr. Anthony Fauci announced a partnership between the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (which gave $100 million) and the National Institutes of Health for HIV treatment
“This collaboration is an ambitious step forward” said Fauci
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SOURCE:
www.ajmc.com/newsroom/nih-bill-and-melinda-gates-foundation-collaborate-to-develop-genebased-hiv-treatment


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--The UK government plans to rip us all off

This morning has seen the publishing of some news which feels like it has come from another world .
Previously we would have been noting the good news and suggesting that more is to come as we look up the price chain .
There is something that remains relevant however as I note this piece of detail .
That is something which is set to continue because if we look back to February the base for the oil price ( Brent Crude ) was US $ 50 whereas as I type this it is US $ 27.50 .
So as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are going to fall further .
This will be offset a bit by the lower UK Pound £ but I will address it later .
In terms of consumer inflation the February figures used are for diesel at 128.2 pence per litre whereas the latest weekly number is for 123.4 pence which is some 7.7 % lower than a year ago .
So there will be a downwards pull on inflation from this source .
There is a bit of an irony here because the Russo/Saudi turf war which began the oil price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overtaken by the large falls in demand we are seeing as economies slow .
According to The Guardian we may run out of spaces to put it .
The plan hatched by a combination of HM Treasury and its independent puppets the UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics is to impose a type of stealth tax of 1 % per annum .
How ?
The emphasis is mine and the plan is to put the fantasy Imputed Rents that are used in the widely ignored CPIH into the RPI .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been ignored so let me explain why .
In the UK the housing market is a big deal and so you might think what owner-occupiers pay would be a considerable influence on inflation .
But in 2002 a decision was made to completely ignore it in the new UK inflation measure called CPI ( Consumer Prices Index ) .
Putting it in was supposed to be on its way but plans took a decade and the saga took a turn in 2012 when the first effort to use Imputed Rents began .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Times economics editor Chris Giles at the time .
He stepped back from that when it emerged that there had been a discontinuity in the numbers , which in statistical terms is a disaster .
So the fantasy numbers ( owner-occupiers do not pay rent ) are based on an unproven rental series .
Why would you put a 737 Max style system when you have a reliable airplane ?
You would not , as most sensible people would be debating between the use of the things that are paid such as house @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is planned in the new inflation measure which has been variously called HII and HCI .
You may not be surprised to learn that there have been desperate official efforts to neuter this .
Firstly by planning to only produce it annually and more latterly by trying to water down any house price influence .
At a time like this you may not think it is important but when things return to normal losing around 1 % per year every year will make you poorer as decisions are made on it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to claim GDP and real wages are higher than they really are .
There is a lot going on here as it has seen its own market discontinuity which I will cover in a moment .
But we know money is in the offing as I note this from the Financial Times .
So we know that the blood funnel of the Vampire Squid is up and sniffing .
On its view of ordinary clients being “ Muppets ” one might reasonably conclude it has some gold to sell .
Also there have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was contacted yesterday on social media asking about the gold price .
I was quoting the price of the April futures contact ( you can take the boy out of the futures market but you can not etc… . )
which as I type this is US $ 1653 .
Seeing as it was below US $ 1500 that is quite a rally except the spot market was of the order of US $ 50 below that .
There are a lot of rumours about problems with the ability of some to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course sets alight the fire of many conspiracy theories we have noted .
This further went into suggestions that some banks have singed their fingers in this area and are considering withdrawing from the market .
Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank thinks the virus is to blame .
So we will wait and see .
Quite a few systems are creaking right now as we see the gold market hit the problems seen by bond markets where prices are inconsistent .
Ironically the central banks tactics are to help with that but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you buy a market on an enormous scale to create what is a fake price ( lower bond yields ) then liquidity will dry up .
I have written before about ruining bond sellers ( Italy ) and buyers will disappear up here .
Please remember that when the central banks tell us it is nothing to do with them and could not possibly have been predicted .
Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve will undertake another US $ 125 billion of QE bond purchases today and the Bank of England some £3 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be buying on average between 5 and 6 billion Euros per day .
Next we have the UK deep state in operation as they try to impose a stealth tax via the miss measurement of inflation .
Because they have lost the various consultations so far and CPIH has remained widely ignored the new consultation is only about when and not if .
Meanwhile for those of you who like some number crunching here is how a 123.4 pence for the price of oil gets broken down .
I have done some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by Shaun Richards
This morning has seen the publishing of some news which feels like it has come from another world.
The all items CPI annual rate is 1.7%, down from 1.8% in January…….The all items RPI annual rate is 2.5%, down from 2.7% last month.
Previously we would have been noting the good news and suggesting that more is to come as we look up the price chain.
The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 0.4% on the year to February 2020, down from 1.0% in January 2020. The price for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process displayed negative growth of 0.5% on the year to February 2020, down from positive growth of 1.6% in January 2020.
There is something that remains relevant however as I note this piece of detail.
Petroleum products made the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of output inflation. Crude oil provided the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of input inflation.
That is something which is set to continue because if we look back to February the base for the oil price ( Brent Crude) was US $50 whereas as I type this it is US $27.50. So as you can see input and output costs are going to fall further. This will be offset a bit by the lower UK Pound £ but I will address it later. In terms of consumer inflation the February figures used are for diesel at 128.2 pence per litre whereas the latest weekly number is for 123.4 pence which is some 7.7% lower than a year ago. So there will be a downwards pull on inflation from this source.
There is a bit of an irony here because the Russo/Saudi turf war which began the oil price fall on the supply side has been overtaken by the large falls in demand we are seeing as economies slow. According to The Guardian we may run out of spaces to put it.
Analysts at Rystad estimate that the world has about 7.2bn barrels of crude and products in storage, including 1.3bn to 1.4bn barrels onboard oil tankers at sea. In theory, it would take nine months to fill the world’s remaining oil stores, but constraints at many facilities will shorten this window to only a few months.
The Rip-Off
The plan hatched by a combination of HM Treasury and its independent puppets the UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics is to impose a type of stealth tax of 1% per annum. How?
In drawing up his advice, the National Statistician considered the views of the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Consumer Prices (APCP-S). The Board accepted his advice and that was the basis of the proposals we put to the Chancellor to cease publication of RPI and in the short term to bring the methods of CPIH into RPI.The Chancellor responded that he was not minded to promote legislation to end RPI, but that the Government intended to consult on whether to bring the methods in CPIH into RPI between 2025 and 2030, effectively aligning the measures.
The emphasis is mine and the plan is to put the fantasy Imputed Rents that are used in the widely ignored CPIH into the RPI. There is good reason that the CPIH has been ignored so let me explain why. In the UK the housing market is a big deal and so you might think what owner-occupiers pay would be a considerable influence on inflation. But in 2002 a decision was made to completely ignore it in the new UK inflation measure called CPI ( Consumer Prices Index).
Putting it in was supposed to be on its way but plans took a decade and the saga took a turn in 2012 when the first effort to use Imputed Rents began. It got strong support from the Financial Times economics editor Chris Giles at the time. He stepped back from that when it emerged that there had been a discontinuity in the numbers, which in statistical terms is a disaster. So the fantasy numbers ( owner-occupiers do not pay rent) are based on an unproven rental series.
Why would you put a 737 Max style system when you have a reliable airplane? You would not, as most sensible people would be debating between the use of the things that are paid such as house prices and mortgage payments. That is what is planned in the new inflation measure which has been variously called HII and HCI. You may not be surprised to learn that there have been desperate official efforts to neuter this. Firstly by planning to only produce it annually and more latterly by trying to water down any house price influence.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
At a time like this you may not think it is important but when things return to normal losing around 1% per year every year will make you poorer as decisions are made on it. Also it will allow government’s to claim GDP and real wages are higher than they really are.
Gold
There is a lot going on here as it has seen its own market discontinuity which I will cover in a moment. But we know money is in the offing as I note this from the Financial Times.
Gold continued to push higher on Tuesday as a recent wave of selling dried up and Goldman Sachs told its clients the time had come to buy the “currency of last resort”. Like other asset classes, gold was hit hard in the recent scramble for US dollars, falling more than 12 per cent from its early March peak of around $1,700 a troy ounce to $1,460 last week. The yellow metal started to see a resurgence on Monday, rising by more than 4 per cent after the Federal Reserve said it would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds and the US dollar fell.
So we know that the blood funnel of the Vampire Squid is up and sniffing. On its view of ordinary clients being “Muppets” one might reasonably conclude it has some gold to sell.
Also there have been problems in the gold markets as I was contacted yesterday on social media asking about the gold price. I was quoting the price of the April futures contact ( you can take the boy out of the futures market but you cannot etc….) which as I type this is US $1653. Seeing as it was below US $1500 that is quite a rally except the spot market was of the order of US $50 below that. There are a lot of rumours about problems with the ability of some to deliver the gold that they owe which of course sets alight the fire of many conspiracy theories we have noted. This further went into suggestions that some banks have singed their fingers in this area and are considering withdrawing from the market.
Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank thinks the virus is to blame.
Having seen 100’s of anti-bank and anti-paper #gold tweets the last couple of days I think I will give the metal a rest while everyone calm down. We have a temporary break down in logistics not being helped by CME’s stringent delivery rules of 100oz bars only.
So we will wait and see.
Ah, California girls are the greatest in the world
Each one a song in the making
Singin’ rock to me I can hear the melody
The story is there for the takin’
Drivin’ over Kanan, singin’ to my soul
There’s people out there turnin’ music into gold ( John Stewart )
Comment
Quite a few systems are creaking right now as we see the gold market hit the problems seen by bond markets where prices are inconsistent. Ironically the central banks tactics are to help with that but their strategy is fatally flawed because if you buy a market on an enormous scale to create what is a fake price ( lower bond yields) then liquidity will dry up. I have written before about ruining bond sellers ( Italy) and buyers will disappear up here. Please remember that when the central banks tell us it is nothing to do with them and could not possibly have been predicted. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve will undertake another US $125 billion of QE bond purchases today and the Bank of England some £3 billion. The ECB gives fewer details but will be buying on average between 5 and 6 billion Euros per day.
Next we have the UK deep state in operation as they try to impose a stealth tax via the miss measurement of inflation. Because they have lost the various consultations so far and CPIH has remained widely ignored the new consultation is only about when and not if.
The Authority’s consultation, which will be undertaken jointly with that of HM Treasury, will begin on 11 March. It will be open to responses for six weeks, closing on 22 April. HM Treasury will consult on the appropriate timing for the proposed changes to the RPI, while the Authority will consult on the technical method of making that change to the RPI.
Meanwhile for those of you who like some number crunching here is how a 123.4 pence for the price of oil gets broken down. I have done some minor rounding so the numbers add up.
Oil 44.9 pence Duty 58 pence VAT 20.5 pence


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Crash events forecasting algo accurate at calling market tops and bottoms

Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to GET OUT OF THE MARKET !
The bear that has arrived could potentially be more vicious than the 1929 bear .
• 100 % - 2020 low will be breached by April 30 , 2020 SCPA ’ s long term forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022 .
At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79 % below the 2020 highs .
Since the indices have all rallied to within 30 % of their 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advisors should give serious consideration to take advantage of any rallies to liquidate holdings .
The Bull & Bear Tracker , which is a trend trading algorithm , could be utilized to quickly recoup losses of 30 % for investments that are liquidated and also any capital gains taxes that might be owed .
The Bull & Bear Tracker ’ s average gain has been above 5 % per month since July of 2019 .
Since its first signal was published on April 9 , 2018 , and through the end of February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vs. 14.9 % for the S & P 500 .
The Bull & Bear Tracker is projecting double digit gains for March 2020 while the S & P 500 will most likely have double digit losses .
For more about the Bull & Bear Tracker ’ s performance go to bullbeartracker.com/news/ .
An investor can only allocate capital to be traded by the Bull & Bear Tracker though an approved registered investment advisor .
The investment advisor could also be utilized for an investor to get the maximum proceeds from liquidating their investments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 ’ s secular bull market which began in March 2009 ended on February 19 , 2020 .
The ninth secular bear since 1802 , began on February 20 , 2020 .
Based on the peaks of the last three secular bull markets as compared to the troughs of the of the three most recent secular bears , the S & P 500 could decline by an additional 47 % to 80 % from its March 6 , 2020 close .
The video of my “ Secular Bulls & Bears : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the February 2020 Orlando Money Show is highly recommended .
The educational video explains secular bulls and bears and includes strategies to protect assets during secular bear markets and recessions , etc .
BullsNBears.com which covers all of the emerging and declining economic and market trends is an excellent resource site .
Click here to view one-minute video about the site .

Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to GET OUT OF THE MARKET! The bear that has arrived could potentially be more vicious than the 1929 bear.
SCPA’s April forecasts:
100%- relief rally will peak by April 8, 2020
100%- 2020 low will be breached by April 30, 2020
SCPA’s long term forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022. At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79% below the 2020 highs.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Since the indices have all rallied to within 30% of their 2020 highs, buy and hold investors and advisors should give serious consideration to take advantage of any rallies to liquidate holdings. The Bull & Bear Tracker, which is a trend trading algorithm, could be utilized to quickly recoup losses of 30% for investments that are liquidated and also any capital gains taxes that might be owed.
The Bull & Bear Tracker’s average gain has been above 5% per month since July of 2019. Since its first signal was published on April 9, 2018, and through the end of February 2020, the gain was 77.3% vs. 14.9% for the S&P 500. The Bull & Bear Tracker is projecting double digit gains for March 2020 while the S&P 500 will most likely have double digit losses. For more about the Bull & Bear Tracker’s performance go to bullbeartracker.com/news/.
An investor can only allocate capital to be traded by the Bull & Bear Tracker though an approved registered investment advisor. The investment advisor could also be utilized for an investor to get the maximum proceeds from liquidating their investments.
My prediction is that the S&P 500’s secular bull market which began in March 2009 ended on February 19, 2020. The ninth secular bear since 1802, began on February 20, 2020. Based on the peaks of the last three secular bull markets as compared to the troughs of the of the three most recent secular bears, the S&P 500 could decline by an additional 47% to 80% from its March 6, 2020 close.
The video of my “Secular Bulls & Bears: Each requires different investing strategies” workshop at the February 2020 Orlando Money Show is highly recommended. The educational video explains secular bulls and bears and includes strategies to protect assets during secular bear markets and recessions, etc. BullsNBears.com which covers all of the emerging and declining economic and market trends is an excellent resource site. Click here to view one-minute video about the site.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--NYC COULD CLOSE STREETS, MORGUES NEAR CAPACITY

The Department of Homeland Security has been briefed that New York City ’ s morgues are nearing capacity , according @ @ @ @ @ a second person familiar with the situation .
Officials were told that morgues in the @ @ @ @ @ capacity next week , per the briefing .
A third person familiar with the situation @ @ @ @ @ some of the city ’ s hospital morgues hit capacity over the last seven days @ @ @ @ @ space in New York City fills up as the number of COVID-19 deaths increases , @ @ @ @ @ , a former senior administration official said , noting that the George W. Bush administration @ @ @ @ @ wake of Hurricane Katrina and the September 11 attacks .

The Department of Homeland Security has been briefed that New York City’s morgues are nearing capacity, according to a department official and a second person familiar with the situation.
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Officials were told that morgues in the city are expected to reach capacity next week, per the briefing. A third person familiar with the situation in New York said that some of the city’s hospital morgues hit capacity over the last seven days.
If the available morgue space in New York City fills up as the number of COVID-19 deaths increases, federal help will be available, a former senior administration official said, noting that the George W. Bush administration sent mortuary assistance in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and the September 11 attacks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--VIDEO: “I Don’t Care! I Don’t Care! I Don’t Care!” Pelosi Snaps at CNN. UPDATE: SHAMEFUL: Nancy Pelo

VIDEO: “I Don’t Care! I Don’t Care! I Don’t Care!” Pelosi Snaps at CNN. UPDATE: SHAMEFUL: Nancy Pelosi Just Delayed Another Vote on the Wuhan Coronavirus Relief Bill

“ I Don ’ t Care !
I Don ’ t Care !
I Don ’ t Care !
” Pelosi Snaps at CNN ’ s Dana Bash For Asking About Trump ’ s Plans to Put America Back to Work House Speaker Nancy Pelosi snapped at CNN ’ s Dana Bash Tuesday afternoon when the host brought up Trump ’ s recent remarks suggesting bringing Americans out of quarantine and back to work .
“ I don ’ t have time to follow people ’ s twits…tweets , Twitters , whatever , tweets — so don ’ t expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pelosi said .
“ Well , even beyond Twitter , the President of the United States is signaling that he could open it up , ” Bash said .
“ What is your opinion on that ?
” Bash said pressing Pelosi .
“ I don ’ t care !
I don ’ t care !
I don ’ t care !
” Pelosi said as CNN ’ s Dana Bash brought up Trump ’ s plans to open America back up for business soon .
Of course Pelosi doesn ’ t care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She wants America shut down while she holds the country hostage and tries to shove her Socialist wish list through Congress .
Speaker Pelosi on President Trump ’ s suggestion about lifting his self-isolation guidelines soon : “ What the President is suggesting is that light at the end of the tunnel could be a train coming at us if people are out and about in a way that spreads the disease further ” SHAMEFUL : Nancy Pelosi Just Delayed Another Vote on the Wuhan Coronavirus Relief Bill In the early hours of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer struck a deal to finally push the Wuhan coronavirus relief bill through .
On Sunday night , the legislation was nearly finalized when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi flew back into town after a week in California and blew up the process by demanding a far-left and unrelated wish list be included in the bill .
Now , after days of wasted time and additional work , Pelosi has indicated the House won ’ t vote on the Senate bill today .
Further , Pelosi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bill .
This will eat up even more valuable time as businesses close and millions of Americans lose their jobs .

“I Don’t Care! I Don’t Care! I Don’t Care!” Pelosi Snaps at CNN’s Dana Bash For Asking About Trump’s Plans to Put America Back to Work
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi snapped at CNN’s Dana Bash Tuesday afternoon when the host brought up Trump’s recent remarks suggesting bringing Americans out of quarantine and back to work.
“I don’t have time to follow people’s twits…tweets, Twitters, whatever, tweets — so don’t expect me to comment on that,” Pelosi said.
“Well, even beyond Twitter, the President of the United States is signaling that he could open it up,” Bash said.
“What is your opinion on that?” Bash said pressing Pelosi.
“I don’t care! I don’t care! I don’t care!” Pelosi said as CNN’s Dana Bash brought up Trump’s plans to open America back up for business soon.
“It is not scientific based — he’s notion mongering,” Pelosi slurred.
Of course Pelosi doesn’t care about Americans going back to work. She wants America shut down while she holds the country hostage and tries to shove her Socialist wish list through Congress.
CNN Politics
@CNNPolitics
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Speaker Pelosi on President Trump’s suggestion about lifting his self-isolation guidelines soon: “What the President is suggesting is that light at the end of the tunnel could be a train coming at us if people are out and about in a way that spreads the disease further”
Speaker Pelosi on President Trump's suggestion about lifting his self-isolation guidelines soon: “What the President is suggesting is that light at the end of the tunnel could be a train coming at us if people are out and about in a way that spreads the disease further” pic.twitter.com/SckGxXn3zz — CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) March 24, 2020
SHAMEFUL: Nancy Pelosi Just Delayed Another Vote on the Wuhan Coronavirus Relief Bill
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, news broke that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer struck a deal to finally push the Wuhan coronavirus relief bill through.
On Sunday night, the legislation was nearly finalized when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi flew back into town after a week in California and blew up the process by demanding a far-left and unrelated wish list be included in the bill.
Now, after days of wasted time and additional work, Pelosi has indicated the House won’t vote on the Senate bill today.
Further, Pelosi may ask for additional adjustments to the bill. This will eat up even more valuable time as businesses close and millions of Americans lose their jobs.
townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/03/25/nancy-pelosi-just-delayed-a-vote-on-the-wuhan-coronavirus-relief-bill-again-n2565687
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Italy & Spain Fining People for Breaking Quarantine

The Italian government is considering tightening up existing quarantine restrictions as more than 53,000 people in the country have been @ @ @ @ @ past eight days with breaking the existing rules .
In Spain , the fine is @ @ @ @ @ strange that you lock down the entire country when the vulnerable people are 65+ .
@ @ @ @ @ for it will be impossible to rebuild the economy in any short order .
Perhaps @ @ @ @ @ the Monetary Crisis Cycle where we are witnessing the collapse of the financial system , @ @ @ @ @ been calling Bretton Woods II .

by Martin Armstrong
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Italian government is considering tightening up existing quarantine restrictions as more than 53,000 people in the country have been charged by police in the past eight days with breaking the existing rules. In Spain, the fine is €300. It is very strange that you lock down the entire country when the vulnerable people are 65+. This really makes no sense for it will be impossible to rebuild the economy in any short order. Perhaps this is the prelude to the Monetary Crisis Cycle where we are witnessing the collapse of the financial system, and a revision I have been calling Bretton Woods II.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Ackman buys hedges for $27M. Closes them for $2.6B and buys more stocks.

“ In a letter to Pershing stakeholders dated Wednesday , Ackman said the fund completed the exit from his bets against the market on March 23 and generated $ 2.6 billion compared with premiums paid and commissions totaling $ 27 million .
He first announced his market hedges on March 3.
” “ we became increasingly positive on equity and credit markets last week , and began the process of unwinding our hedges and redeploying our capital in companies we love at bargain prices , ” he added .
Went on TV , said “ hell is coming ” , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Blackstone could be a 0 , then probably went to close shorts , buy stonks ( including one he had just said could go 0 in Hilton and reportedly bought Blackstone , as well . )
“ I have enormous respect for KKR and Blackstone , ” Ackman added of the two illustrious private equity firms , before predicting their leveraged deals would be toast if there isn ’ t a quick solution within the next 18-months .
“ [ E ] very one of their companies goes bankrupt , ” he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has learned Ackman called Blackstone and said he ’ s buying the firm ’ s shares.
” ( www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/03/18/the-billionaire-interview-that-tanked-the-stock-market )

“In a letter to Pershing stakeholders dated Wednesday, Ackman said the fund completed the exit from his bets against the market on March 23 and generated $2.6 billion compared with premiums paid and commissions totaling $27 million. He first announced his market hedges on March 3.”
“we became increasingly positive on equity and credit markets last week, and began the process of unwinding our hedges and redeploying our capital in companies we love at bargain prices,” he added.
www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bill-ackman-exits-market-hedges-uses-2-billion-he-made-to-buy-more-stocks-including-hilton.html
Went on TV, said “hell is coming”, said Hilton could go to 0, said Blackstone could be a 0, then probably went to close shorts, buy stonks (including one he had just said could go 0 in Hilton and reportedly bought Blackstone, as well.)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“I have enormous respect for KKR and Blackstone,” Ackman added of the two illustrious private equity firms, before predicting their leveraged deals would be toast if there isn’t a quick solution within the next 18-months. “[E]very one of their companies goes bankrupt,” he said.
After the interview, Forbes has learned Ackman called Blackstone and said he’s buying the firm’s shares.”(www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/03/18/the-billionaire-interview-that-tanked-the-stock-market)
LOL
Dvd


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--IRS tax agency may need months to put cash into Americans’ hands

For the bears , information taken from the link .
Context : The IRS is being relied upon to process 500 billion dollars ASAP .
In 2001 , the IRS needed more than six weeks to issue the first rebates authorized by President George W. Bush ’ s tax cut .
In 2008 , the IRS issued its first payments to fight the Great Recession nearly three months after Bush signed off on them .
Being that the payments are not immediate , the growing economic strain surrounding the current pandemic and other underlying issues will outweigh the stimulus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the pandemic exponentially INCREASES , the economic fallout may be even greater than the current dire situation .
“ I don ’ t think any of the policymakers have given any thought to the practical implications of actually doing this .
The IRS doesn ’ t have the resources to do it , ” The agency also needs find a way to staff their processing centres during a time when everyone needs to stay at home ( the agency closed its 300+ in person assistance centres ) Currently there are 73,550 employees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hundred million Americans looking to receive the financial stimulus , that equals to a 1:1360 employee to applicant ratio .
And do know that before the IRS issues payments , agents will have to calculate the amount based on income and family status , and may not have current bank information for direct deposits or current addresses to mail out physical checks .
link : liveindex.org/132967/2020/03/explainer-hobbled-irs-tax-agency-may-need-months-to-put-cash-into-americans-hands/ Basically read this for a bit more information I left out if you are bothered .
TLDR : IRS still uses the same 1960s computers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the GFC .
Stimulus payments are gon na at least take a while to get into the working people ’ s hands = confirmed bull trap > same short term panic = puts .
But you might soon start to worry about the US dollar or inflation as the current leadership in the US is top notch .
BRRRRRRR Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Battletoad101
For the bears, information taken from the link. Context: The IRS is being relied upon to process 500 billion dollars ASAP.
In 2001, the IRS needed more than six weeks to issue the first rebates authorized by President George W. Bush’s tax cut. In 2008, the IRS issued its first payments to fight the Great Recession nearly three months after Bush signed off on them. Being that the payments are not immediate, the growing economic strain surrounding the current pandemic and other underlying issues will outweigh the stimulus. IF Trump literally opens up the country and the pandemic exponentially INCREASES, the economic fallout may be even greater than the current dire situation.
“I don’t think any of the policymakers have given any thought to the practical implications of actually doing this. The IRS doesn’t have the resources to do it,”
The agency also needs find a way to staff their processing centres during a time when everyone needs to stay at home (the agency closed its 300+ in person assistance centres)
Currently there are 73,550 employees at the IRS, and with over a hundred million Americans looking to receive the financial stimulus, that equals to a 1:1360 employee to applicant ratio. And do know that before the IRS issues payments, agents will have to calculate the amount based on income and family status, and may not have current bank information for direct deposits or current addresses to mail out physical checks.
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link: liveindex.org/132967/2020/03/explainer-hobbled-irs-tax-agency-may-need-months-to-put-cash-into-americans-hands/ Basically read this for a bit more information I left out if you are bothered.
TLDR: IRS still uses the same 1960s computers, fewer workers and little budget to operate since the GFC. Stimulus payments are gonna at least take a while to get into the working people’s hands = confirmed bull trap > same short term panic = puts.
But you might soon start to worry about the US dollar or inflation as the current leadership in the US is top notch. BRRRRRRR
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Daddy, Where Does Money Come From? Birds, Bees, Long Term Debt Instruments, and You

To be honest , I ’ m impressed you ’ ve gotten this far .
That ’ s a lot of words in the title .
I ’ ve noticed an unprecedented influx of idiocy into this sub lately , but also a lot of quality explainers , so I wanted to add my two cents .
TL ; DR – this is a post about credit agreement and bond covenants and their impact on equity pricing ( and how you – yes , you in the back with the helmet on ) – can use them to your advantage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about this ?
Well , I write ’ em for a living .
Interested ?
Read on .
Want a ticker ?
Get fucked .
I get charged out at $ 1500 an hour to explain this shit to CFOs and hedge fund managers , so be grateful I ’ m here to explain it to you gratis .
Don ’ t worry , we ’ re going to do a practical example at the end – you can do what you want with that information .
Ever wonder where money comes from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I know .
But where companies get their money from ?
Well , there are four main sources of cashflow .
( 1 ) Sales ( 2 ) Equity ( 3 ) Bonds ( 4 ) Debt .
OK maybe at the moment the Fed makes 5 ( but not really ) .
Let ’ s get started .
( 1 ) Sales .
This is the basic corporate calculus – make shit , sell shit , receive money from the people who buy shit .
Some companies don ’ t even have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , $ APRN ) .
( 2 ) Equity .
A bit like ( 1 ) , but instead of making shit to sell , you cut off pieces of your company to sell to either public or private investors ( psst .
these are what your options give you a right to buy and sell ) So far , so simple .
Easy , right ?
Well , we ’ re not here to talk about that shit .
This is AP debt instruments , retards .
That JV shit is for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 3 ) and ( 4 ) are what heavy hitters care about ( and where you can get something of an edge ) .
( 3 ) Bonds .
No , not the iconic Australia underwear brand your wife ’ s boyfriend wears .
This is where you issue – either privately or through a public placement – long or short term debt instruments ( bonds , notes , paper , whatever – it all means the same shit ) to the market .
It ’ s basically an IOU from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sell for less than they ’ re worth ( called ‘ par ’ ) – and also generate interest ( called a ‘ coupon ’ ) .
You sell a promise to repay someone $ 100m in 7 years for $ 99m , AND you promise to pay them a coupon on their investment .
Plus , they can trade ’ em .
Literally can ’ t go tits up !
The u/ir0nyman of corporate credit instruments .
Why would a company do it ?
No need for pesky banks – and you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when you need money now for that new Gulfstream the CEO ’ s been eyeing .
( 4 ) Debt .
Where most of the real money comes from .
This is where a bank and a borrower who love each other very much get together and agree to lend money for a fee on certain conditions .
Sometimes it ’ s two banks .
Sometimes , for the more adventurous borrowers , they invite a whole syndicate of banks into the party for a fiscal gang-bang of epic proportion .
They spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s boyfriend… well , you get the idea .
You use this option if you want more money over more time with more flexibility than in a bond offering .
Anyway , so ( 3 ) and ( 4 ) are in great big beefy documents hidden at the back of 10-Ks that noone other than me and hedge fund managers ever read .
Spoiler alert – I am not going to explain things like the difference between a TLA , TLB and revolver to you , or talk about secured and unsecured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in them don ’ t matter ( don ’ t tell anyone – this is what keeps us in a job ) .
Google it if you ’ re interested .
However , one section *does* matter ( a lot ) .
They ’ re called ‘ negative covenants ’ .
Negative means negative .
Covenant is a fancy word for ‘ rule ’ .
See , the way these documents work is that they ’ re drafted to say ‘ You ’ re not allowed to do anything EXCEPT for the following @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceptions to the rule that you ’ re not allowed to do anything .
There are a bunch that are normal , practical rules .
Can ’ t change shit about the company except for shit that doesn ’ t matter , can ’ t sell your shit without telling the banks except for shit that ’ s really cheap , can ’ t buy stuff except for stuff you need , etc .
The big one for our purposes is called INDEBTEDNESS .
This is the rule that you can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is where WSB can come in .
Banks are like women .
They like exclusivity .
They don ’ t want to give it all up on the first date expecting you to hold them dear and true for the next 5-7 years and then see you out on the town 6 months later with some slutty direct lender .
They feel… shame .
And also like that there is a risk that you won ’ t be able to pay *them* back .
See , most of what companies actually spend money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fees and shit stack up fast ( especially when the company blows its load on some shitty acquisition straight away ) .
So when you can borrow *more* money than you should be able to , your balance sheet can get ugly fast .
Good money after bad , etc .
– especially with companies than aren ’ t cash-flow positive to begin with .
This raises the risk of default .
This can downgrade the credit rating .
This can change the stock price .
Now , for the last 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shit about the possibility of default because debt has been so free and easy to access .
Stonks only go up , they figured , so what could go wrong ?
Charge a fee , sell the risk to some dicey Chinese banks who don ’ t know any better , see ya later .
But now with this Corona-shit , people feel like maybeeeee they ’ re in a position where an already dicey lending proposition to a company without consistent cashflow and that company is about to issue some new bonds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So , problems .
If you have big holes in your indebtedness covenants , you can utilize them to incur additional debt – which *sometimes* you can use for good , and sometimes you can just use to pay off your existing bad debt – kicking the can down the road .
Obviously , this is bad for a company ’ s long term health – but the CEO will be long gone by the time this matters , so who gives a shit , right ?
Now you kinda need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ r/wallstreetbets user to wrap your head around what the docs say .
They ’ re pretty complicated .
BUT , what even you can do is read a 10-K. Let ’ s do an example together .
$ SIX .
Example to work through $ SIX is a shitty company .
They ’ re pretty highly levered .
They ’ ve got lots of debt outstanding .
In fact , they ’ ve got some bonds due pretty soon .
Big , expensive bonds .
Look at the financials .
Lots of interest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ta pay it back .
Soon .
In fact , $ 1 billion cash money in July 2024 .
Bad news for a company with no fucking cashflow for the foreseeable future .
Divorced dads not taking little Janey and Johnny to Six Flags over Georgia for the annual ‘ Please Don ’ t Hate Me For Leaving You ’ trip anytime soon .
So what does SF do now ?
They don ’ t want to default on that payment , or they ’ ll go bankrupt .
They look at their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is *no more debt except for the following* – to find a way to borrow *more* money to pay these off .
Robbing Peter to pay Paul .
If they have a freebie basket ( an exception that says they can borrow money for any reason up to ‘ X ’ ) , then they ’ re in luck .
If they can incur ‘ accordion ’ debt , even better – this is extra debt on top of what they ’ ve already got outstanding at a similar level of seniority .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever , the important thing is getting the monkey off their back .
They can also combine this with , more complex baskets in a feat of linguistic gymnastics that would make Hilary Clinton blush to borrow money to pay off their other outstanding obligations .
If they don ’ t , well , that ’ s bad .
Have a go .
See if you can figure it out for yourself .
Can $ SIX do it ?
If they can , great !
No bankruptcy !
if they can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a big short opportunity for you .
For those of you who ’ ve read this far , here ’ s a neat trick – you don ’ t even need to read the fucking Credit Agreement .
All this shit is in the 10-K under ‘ Debt Obligations ’ .
They put it all there in black and white for you to find .
How you can do this too ; the TLDR of the above Find a bad company .
Read their 10-K. Look for bond debt expiring soon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay it off .
If not , short the shit out of them on a 6-12 month basis .
Get tendies .
Repeat .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by fuzzyblankeet
To be honest, I’m impressed you’ve gotten this far. That’s a lot of words in the title. I’ve noticed an unprecedented influx of idiocy into this sub lately, but also a lot of quality explainers, so I wanted to add my two cents. TL;DR – this is a post about credit agreement and bond covenants and their impact on equity pricing (and how you – yes, you in the back with the helmet on) – can use them to your advantage. How the fuck do I know about this? Well, I write ’em for a living. Interested? Read on. Want a ticker? Get fucked. I get charged out at $1500 an hour to explain this shit to CFOs and hedge fund managers, so be grateful I’m here to explain it to you gratis. Don’t worry, we’re going to do a practical example at the end – you can do what you want with that information.
Ever wonder where money comes from? Hurr hurr printer goes brr, I know. But where companies get their money from? Well, there are four main sources of cashflow. (1) Sales (2) Equity (3) Bonds (4) Debt. OK maybe at the moment the Fed makes 5 (but not really). Let’s get started.
Fundamentals
(1) Sales. This is the basic corporate calculus – make shit, sell shit, receive money from the people who buy shit. Some companies don’t even have to do that (looking at you, $APRN). (2) Equity. A bit like (1), but instead of making shit to sell, you cut off pieces of your company to sell to either public or private investors (psst. these are what your options give you a right to buy and sell) So far, so simple. Easy, right? Well, we’re not here to talk about that shit. This is AP debt instruments, retards. That JV shit is for r/investing and for the r/all normies. (3) and (4) are what heavy hitters care about (and where you can get something of an edge).
(3) Bonds. No, not the iconic Australia underwear brand your wife’s boyfriend wears. This is where you issue – either privately or through a public placement – long or short term debt instruments (bonds, notes, paper, whatever – it all means the same shit) to the market. It’s basically an IOU from the company. The hook is that these sell for less than they’re worth (called ‘par’) – and also generate interest (called a ‘coupon’). You sell a promise to repay someone $100m in 7 years for $99m, AND you promise to pay them a coupon on their investment. Plus, they can trade ’em. Literally can’t go tits up! The u/ir0nyman of corporate credit instruments. Why would a company do it? No need for pesky banks – and you can do it quick and dirty for when you need money now for that new Gulfstream the CEO’s been eyeing. (4) Debt. Where most of the real money comes from. This is where a bank and a borrower who love each other very much get together and agree to lend money for a fee on certain conditions. Sometimes it’s two banks. Sometimes, for the more adventurous borrowers, they invite a whole syndicate of banks into the party for a fiscal gang-bang of epic proportion. They spread that risk around like your wife’s boyfriend… well, you get the idea. You use this option if you want more money over more time with more flexibility than in a bond offering.
The Rules
Anyway, so (3) and (4) are in great big beefy documents hidden at the back of 10-Ks that noone other than me and hedge fund managers ever read. Spoiler alert – I am not going to explain things like the difference between a TLA, TLB and revolver to you, or talk about secured and unsecured debt. Loads of the fucking rules in them don’t matter (don’t tell anyone – this is what keeps us in a job). Google it if you’re interested. However, one section *does* matter (a lot). They’re called ‘negative covenants’. Negative means negative. Covenant is a fancy word for ‘rule’. See, the way these documents work is that they’re drafted to say ‘You’re not allowed to do anything EXCEPT for the following’. The neg covenants are the exceptions to the rule that you’re not allowed to do anything.
There are a bunch that are normal, practical rules. Can’t change shit about the company except for shit that doesn’t matter, can’t sell your shit without telling the banks except for shit that’s really cheap, can’t buy stuff except for stuff you need, etc. The big one for our purposes is called INDEBTEDNESS. This is the rule that you can’t borrow more money, except….. And this is where WSB can come in.
Banks are like women. They like exclusivity. They don’t want to give it all up on the first date expecting you to hold them dear and true for the next 5-7 years and then see you out on the town 6 months later with some slutty direct lender. They feel… shame. And also like that there is a risk that you won’t be able to pay *them* back. See, most of what companies actually spend money on is debt service. The interest and fees and shit stack up fast (especially when the company blows its load on some shitty acquisition straight away). So when you can borrow *more* money than you should be able to, your balance sheet can get ugly fast. Good money after bad, etc. – especially with companies than aren’t cash-flow positive to begin with. This raises the risk of default. This can downgrade the credit rating. This can change the stock price.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now, for the last 10 years, noone has really given a shit about the possibility of default because debt has been so free and easy to access. Stonks only go up, they figured, so what could go wrong? Charge a fee, sell the risk to some dicey Chinese banks who don’t know any better, see ya later. But now with this Corona-shit, people feel like maybeeeee they’re in a position where an already dicey lending proposition to a company without consistent cashflow and that company is about to issue some new bonds. And the syndication market is dead. So, problems. If you have big holes in your indebtedness covenants, you can utilize them to incur additional debt – which *sometimes* you can use for good, and sometimes you can just use to pay off your existing bad debt – kicking the can down the road. Obviously, this is bad for a company’s long term health – but the CEO will be long gone by the time this matters, so who gives a shit, right?
Now you kinda need to be at a level above the average r/wallstreetbets user to wrap your head around what the docs say. They’re pretty complicated. BUT, what even you can do is read a 10-K. Let’s do an example together. $SIX.
Example to work through
$SIX is a shitty company. They’re pretty highly levered. They’ve got lots of debt outstanding. In fact, they’ve got some bonds due pretty soon. Big, expensive bonds. Look at the financials. Lots of interest. Plus, they’ve gotta pay it back. Soon. In fact, $1 billion cash money in July 2024. Bad news for a company with no fucking cashflow for the foreseeable future. Divorced dads not taking little Janey and Johnny to Six Flags over Georgia for the annual ‘Please Don’t Hate Me For Leaving You’ trip anytime soon. So what does SF do now? They don’t want to default on that payment, or they’ll go bankrupt. They look at their loan docs – remember, the baseline is *no more debt except for the following* – to find a way to borrow *more* money to pay these off. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.
If they have a freebie basket (an exception that says they can borrow money for any reason up to ‘X’), then they’re in luck. If they can incur ‘accordion’ debt, even better – this is extra debt on top of what they’ve already got outstanding at a similar level of seniority. This is subject to certain protections but whatever, the important thing is getting the monkey off their back. They can also combine this with, more complex baskets in a feat of linguistic gymnastics that would make Hilary Clinton blush to borrow money to pay off their other outstanding obligations. If they don’t, well, that’s bad.
Have a go. See if you can figure it out for yourself. Can $SIX do it? If they can, great! No bankruptcy! if they can’t, well, bad times ahead – and a big short opportunity for you.
For those of you who’ve read this far, here’s a neat trick – you don’t even need to read the fucking Credit Agreement. All this shit is in the 10-K under ‘Debt Obligations’. They put it all there in black and white for you to find.
How you can do this too; the TLDR of the above
Find a bad company. Read their 10-K. Look for bond debt expiring soon. See if they can incur debt to pay it off. If not, short the shit out of them on a 6-12 month basis. Get tendies. Repeat.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Why next week’s unemployment numbers are likely to be worse than this week’s

We are preparing for potentially the worst unemployment numbers ever on record this Thursday .
However with the Stimulus package now passed businesses across the US can now examine whether they have funding in order to retain employee ’ s or if they ’ ll need to trim immediately in order to survive .
For Small businesses which represent ~ $ 5.9B or ~44 % of the total US economy they are clearly the biggest losers in this stimulus package unless CNN has made a major misread .
The bill would ensure the Small Business Administration could serve as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 billion for small businesses to ensure they can maintain their payrolls and pay off their debts .
Small businesses employ 58.9 million people , which makes up 47.5 % of the country ’ s total US workforce .
Accounting for the projected 2M employees in the first round of layoffs we can easily assume that half of these are from large companies .
This leaves us a potential 57.9M small business employees now on the chopping block .
Another 5 % reduction this upcoming Thursday seems very reasonable if not low given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country and have nothing to do but look at their outgoing cash expenditures .
This represents 2.9M layoffs in next Thursday ’ s unemployment numbers .
Folks , Welcome the largest layoffs in history… Next week will be worse Cash or Short… Calls are completely insane for anything other than day traders .

by Rabbitloki
We are preparing for potentially the worst unemployment numbers ever on record this Thursday. However with the Stimulus package now passed businesses across the US can now examine whether they have funding in order to retain employee’s or if they’ll need to trim immediately in order to survive.
For Small businesses which represent ~$5.9B or ~44% of the total US economy they are clearly the biggest losers in this stimulus package unless CNN has made a major misread.
The bill would ensure the Small Business Administration could serve as a guarantor for loans of up to $10 billion for small businesses to ensure they can maintain their payrolls and pay off their debts.
www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-senate-action-coronavirus/index.html
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Small businesses employ 58.9 million people, which makes up 47.5% of the country’s total US workforce.
Accounting for the projected 2M employees in the first round of layoffs we can easily assume that half of these are from large companies. This leaves us a potential 57.9M small business employees now on the chopping block.
Another 5% reduction this upcoming Thursday seems very reasonable if not low given small business owners are quarantined around the country and have nothing to do but look at their outgoing cash expenditures. This represents 2.9M layoffs in next Thursday’s unemployment numbers.
Folks, Welcome the largest layoffs in history… Next week will be worse
Cash or Short… Calls are completely insane for anything other than day traders.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Congress Approves $2T Bailout…Too Bad It Will Only Last a Few Weeks!! (Bix Weir)

Congress Approves $ 2T Bailout…Too Bad It Will Only Last a Few Weeks !
!
( Bix Weir ) It @ @ @ @ @ $ 2T is not enough to bailout EVERYBODY and that ’ s what people will @ @ @ @ @ will arrive next month and it will have to be $ 20T just to last @ @ @ @ @ Hang on tight !

Great. What could we need congress for over the next month t.co/c5SANxPcVj — Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) March 25, 2020
Congress Approves $2T Bailout…Too Bad It Will Only Last a Few Weeks!! (Bix Weir)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It’s not enough! $2T is not enough to bailout EVERYBODY and that’s what people will demand. The next package will arrive next month and it will have to be $20T just to last a few more weeks! Hang on tight!
Return to normal > the lockdown will end soon pic.twitter.com/il0YwhypaP — A.Urban (@AlessioUrban) March 25, 2020
St. Louis Fed out with a casual blog post titled "Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate" 32.1%t.co/dTJuxiKbH0 pic.twitter.com/BlSeGQQ7cl — Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) March 25, 2020
So after all their bluster and bloviating, Senate Dems still cut the GOP their $500 Billion corporate welfare check—because they're weak. $1200 per person? The fact these politicians think this will put a dent in most people's bills shows how out of touch they are. #StimulusPlan pic.twitter.com/eVygPTQLvy — Robbie Jaeger 🔎 (@RobletoFire) March 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--“The good news is we came into this with a much stronger banking system.”  * It’s so strong it neede

“The good news is we came into this with a much stronger banking system.”  * It’s so strong it needed 6 months of non stop repo before the Coronavirus even hit.

`` The good news is we came into this with a much stronger banking system . ''
* It 's @ @ @ @ @ months of non stop repo before the Coronavirus even hit .
t.co/6k5R9LYOSs

"The good news is we came into this with a much stronger banking system."
* It's so strong it needed 6 months of non stop repo before the Coronavirus even hit. t.co/6k5R9LYOSs
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--$6 trillion bailout! If you aren’t $18,000 richer after all is said and done, don’t worry, someone e

$6 trillion bailout! If you aren’t $18,000 richer after all is said and done, don’t worry, someone else is.

If you aren ’ t $ 18,000 richer after all is said and done , don ’ t worry , @ @ @ @ @ Reminder : Giving someone $ 1,200 is n't going to inspire them to go buy @ @ @ @ @ 're worried about hospital bills or just paying the rent because they wonder if they @ @ @ @ @ week .
Congress has agreed to a $ 2 trillion stimulus bill to rescue the @ @ @ @ @ only one slight problem with this rescue plan .
It relies on the Fed to @ @ @ @ @ since all the Fed has is a printing press , who will rescue the dollar @ @ @ @ @ # gold now !
This is how the futures are reacting after the $ 6 @ @ @ @ @ top of unlimited QE ! )
.
Talk about not getting much bang for the @ @ @ @ @ QQQ pic.twitter.com/SYhSgPQfHO

If you aren’t $18,000 richer after all is said and done, don’t worry, someone else is.
Friendly Reminder: Giving someone $1,200 isn't going to inspire them to go buy a Chevy Tahoe….particularly if they're worried about hospital bills or just paying the rent because they wonder if they'll have a job next week.
Congress has agreed to a $2 trillion stimulus bill to rescue the U.S. economy. There is only one slight problem with this rescue plan. It relies on the Fed to rescue the government. But since all the Fed has is a printing press, who will rescue the dollar? No one. Buy #gold now!
This is how the futures are reacting after the $6 trillion stimulus announcement (on top of unlimited QE!).
That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Talk about not getting much bang for the buck!$SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/SYhSgPQfHO
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) March 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--COVID-19 made China a riskier place to manufacture

As we push through the coronavirus/covid-19 crisis , it ’ s hard not to wonder how we ’ ll change in its wake .
We will , without a doubt , see economic and political changes that seemed unimaginable just 6 months ago .
One obvious area is trade .
Coronavirus first manifested in China , forcing the closure of manufacturing and supply chains for weeks .
Although factories are open again , nearly every supply chain manager is now keenly aware of the risk of concentrating supply chains in a single location .
According to this article , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world ’ s air-conditioners , 70 % of its mobile phones and 60 % of its shoes.
” As many Americans learned in recent weeks , 80 % of antibiotics used in the US are made in China , as is 95 % of ibuprofen , 91 % of hydrocortisone , and 70 % of acetaminophen .
It ’ s likely that globalization – centered on China – gives way to trade regionalization as one way to reduce risk .
While this note is not an endorsement of Mexico , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to see Mexico as a legitimate sourcing alternative to China .
Part of the USMCA free trade agreement , Mexico allows for a diversity of transport methods to the US ( trucking , rail , air and sea ) with faster transit times , lower relative transport cost to China , convenient time zone , etc .
So , let ’ s first look at what China exports to the US :

As we push through the coronavirus/covid-19 crisis, it’s hard not to wonder how we’ll change in its wake. We will, without a doubt, see economic and political changes that seemed unimaginable just 6 months ago.
One obvious area is trade. Coronavirus first manifested in China, forcing the closure of manufacturing and supply chains for weeks. Although factories are open again, nearly every supply chain manager is now keenly aware of the risk of concentrating supply chains in a single location.
According to this article, “China produces about 80% of the world’s air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes.” As many Americans learned in recent weeks, 80% of antibiotics used in the US are made in China, as is 95% of ibuprofen, 91% of hydrocortisone, and 70% of acetaminophen. It’s likely that globalization – centered on China – gives way to trade regionalization as one way to reduce risk.
While this note is not an endorsement of Mexico, it’s hard – from a US perspective – not to see Mexico as a legitimate sourcing alternative to China. Part of the USMCA free trade agreement, Mexico allows for a diversity of transport methods to the US (trucking, rail, air and sea) with faster transit times, lower relative transport cost to China, convenient time zone, etc.
So, let’s first look at what China exports to the US: