investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--2020 Ends With A Mania

2020 Ends With A Mania

The latest update shows Goldman ’ s basket of U.S. retail investors ’ favorite stocks are up 85.9 % year to date which is destroying the S & P 500 which is up just 14.2 % .
Words can ’ t explain how unusual this is .
Only in the 1990s did retail investors do so well .
Because words can ’ t do it justice , we have the chart below which shows the 20 year annualized return of the average investor is 2.3 % .
Those are negative real returns .
Keep in mind the chart is slightly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Retail investors usually don ’ t beat the index or earn any real returns for that matter .
Of course , just because the retail favorites have done well this year doesn ’ t mean everyone has been a winner .
Some investors panicked in March and some lost it all betting on options .
We are seeing survivorship bias in play when most of the people bragging about their 2020 performance on social media had triple digits gains in 2020 .
The is a SPAC market not a stock market .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past couple years .
It ’ s possible at the latest rate that we could have 1,000 by the end of 2022 .
There are only about 4,000 stocks traded in America .
It ’ s funny because in the past few years we have talked about the decline in stocks listed .
There has been a worry that the power in the economy has become too centralized .
These SPACs aren ’ t really doing anything to change this because they mostly lose money .
The economic profits still go to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there were only 59 SPACs .
In the past 4 days , there have been 40 new SPACs .
There were 9 on Wednesday .
This is what will cause the end of the bull market in speculative stocks .
Supply always beats demand in bubbles .
Some people still don ’ t think the 2nd half 2020 is like the 1990s stock market bubble .
We will keep going with this comparison until the bubble ends .
Bubbles never end in a plateau , but some think that ’ s possible because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1997 , there was a firm called Pilgrim Baxter and Associates which rode the momentum wave .
Don Phillips of Morningstar stated , “ Pilgrim Baxter caught wave after wave : momentum investing , investors chasing performance , instant mass distribution from Schwab OneSource .
They got phenomenally lucky , but instead of being grateful , they kept pushing the envelope.
” Schwab OneSource sounds like nothing compared to the rise in popularity of free stock trading apps in the past few years .
There has also been a rise in actively managed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can see from the chart above , ARK Invest ’ s innovation fund has seen a parabolic rise in assets under management .
Investors are chasing growth stocks without a care for valuations .
A 2004 article from Fortune states , “ They flooded PBHG ’ s toll-free lines with 80,000 calls a month , looking to plunk their money into its funds .
Reporters paraded in to interview Pilgrim .
Staffers constantly broke out the bubbly to celebrate milestones : $ 5 billion in assets , $ 10 billion , $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pittance compared to the popularity ARK has .
ARK ’ s YouTube channel has 165,000 subscribers .
Bloomberg ’ s interview with the founder of ARK , Cathie Wood , has 592,000 views in 6 days .
ARK is getting a flood of new money it must invest .
There is no way of closing an actively managed ETF like there is for mutual funds .
Even though these growth stocks and funds have done very well , history tells us that popularity is highest at the top .
The worst businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you measure the bad businesses by their lack of profitability , high short interest , and the amount they dilute shareholders .
Usually , investors hate dilution , but in 2020 , they love it .
Shrinking share counts are supposed to be a good thing , but traders want to be diluted in 2020 because they think the money raised will go to new exciting developments which will grow sales further .
As you can see from the chart above , unprofitable tech stocks have risen 333 % from the bottom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managers who cared about valuations are long gone .
Money chases performance .
The Russell 2000 is the most overbought ever .
In the past couple months , value stocks have done well .
Growth stocks are in a bubble and value stocks are overbought .
There isn ’ t much of a place to hide in this market .
As you can see from the chart below , the Russell 2000 is 34 % above its 200 day moving average which is the highest going back to 1980 .
This isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though .
Plus , the index is breaking out of a 3 year bear market .
This looks like the emerging markets index which is close to its highest level in a decade .
You wouldn ’ t expect the Nasdaq 100 to be doing so well with these former laggards turning into leaders .
As you can see from the chart below , only 56.8 % of stocks in the Russell 2000 had an operating profit in the past year and 51 % had EPS profits .
Usually , a significant amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but obviously this is a particularly bad time because we are coming out of a recession .
Most of the energy firms in this index are obviously in major trouble .
Don ’ t focus on the past though .
Investors are pricing in a cyclical recovery in 2021 as 1 million vaccines have gone out and more are on the way in January .
Retail investors usually don ’ t do well , but this year is another situation altogether .
Many are seeing triple digit gains .
ARK Invest is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unprofitable stocks are beloved as sales growth matters more than profits .
The Russell 2000 is the furthest above its 200 day moving average than ever before .
Almost half of the small cap index didn ’ t make a profit in the past 12 months because of the recession .

by UPFINA
The latest update shows Goldman’s basket of U.S. retail investors’ favorite stocks are up 85.9% year to date which is destroying the S&P 500 which is up just 14.2%. Words can’t explain how unusual this is. Only in the 1990s did retail investors do so well. Because words can’t do it justice, we have the chart below which shows the 20 year annualized return of the average investor is 2.3%. Those are negative real returns. Keep in mind the chart is slightly dated, but demonstrates the point nonetheless.
Retail investors usually don’t beat the index or earn any real returns for that matter. Of course, just because the retail favorites have done well this year doesn’t mean everyone has been a winner. Some investors panicked in March and some lost it all betting on options. We are seeing survivorship bias in play when most of the people bragging about their 2020 performance on social media had triple digits gains in 2020.
The is a SPAC market not a stock market. About 300 SPACs have gone public in the past couple years. It’s possible at the latest rate that we could have 1,000 by the end of 2022. There are only about 4,000 stocks traded in America. It’s funny because in the past few years we have talked about the decline in stocks listed. There has been a worry that the power in the economy has become too centralized. These SPACs aren’t really doing anything to change this because they mostly lose money. The economic profits still go to the internet giants. In 2019, there were only 59 SPACs. In the past 4 days, there have been 40 new SPACs. There were 9 on Wednesday. This is what will cause the end of the bull market in speculative stocks. Supply always beats demand in bubbles.
Pilgrim Baxter & Associates
Some people still don’t think the 2nd half 2020 is like the 1990s stock market bubble. We will keep going with this comparison until the bubble ends. Bubbles never end in a plateau, but some think that’s possible because they have recency bias. Back in 1997, there was a firm called Pilgrim Baxter and Associates which rode the momentum wave. Don Phillips of Morningstar stated, “Pilgrim Baxter caught wave after wave: momentum investing, investors chasing performance, instant mass distribution from Schwab OneSource. They got phenomenally lucky, but instead of being grateful, they kept pushing the envelope.”
ARK Innovation ETF, AUM…
Dec 2015: $8.2 million
Dec 2016: $12 million
Dec 2017: $376 million
Dec 2018: $1.1 billion
Dec 2019: $1.9 billion
Dec 2020: $18.4 billion$ARKK Data via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/KthCtHxhVr — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 23, 2020
Schwab OneSource sounds like nothing compared to the rise in popularity of free stock trading apps in the past few years. There has also been a rise in actively managed ETFs led by ARK Invest. As you can see from the chart above, ARK Invest’s innovation fund has seen a parabolic rise in assets under management. Investors are chasing growth stocks without a care for valuations.
A 2004 article from Fortune states, “They flooded PBHG’s toll-free lines with 80,000 calls a month, looking to plunk their money into its funds. Reporters paraded in to interview Pilgrim. Staffers constantly broke out the bubbly to celebrate milestones: $5 billion in assets, $10 billion, $20 billion.” 80,000 phone calls are a pittance compared to the popularity ARK has. ARK’s YouTube channel has 165,000 subscribers. Bloomberg’s interview with the founder of ARK, Cathie Wood, has 592,000 views in 6 days. ARK is getting a flood of new money it must invest. There is no way of closing an actively managed ETF like there is for mutual funds. Even though these growth stocks and funds have done very well, history tells us that popularity is highest at the top.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Unprofitable Stocks Soar
The worst businesses have had the best stocks this year if you measure the bad businesses by their lack of profitability, high short interest, and the amount they dilute shareholders. Usually, investors hate dilution, but in 2020, they love it. Shrinking share counts are supposed to be a good thing, but traders want to be diluted in 2020 because they think the money raised will go to new exciting developments which will grow sales further.
As you can see from the chart above, unprofitable tech stocks have risen 333% from the bottom in March. The investors and fund managers who cared about valuations are long gone. Money chases performance.
Very Overbought Small Caps
The Russell 2000 is the most overbought ever. In the past couple months, value stocks have done well. Growth stocks are in a bubble and value stocks are overbought. There isn’t much of a place to hide in this market.
As you can see from the chart below, the Russell 2000 is 34% above its 200 day moving average which is the highest going back to 1980. This isn’t usually a sign of a disaster though. Plus, the index is breaking out of a 3 year bear market. This looks like the emerging markets index which is close to its highest level in a decade. You wouldn’t expect the Nasdaq 100 to be doing so well with these former laggards turning into leaders.
Historic momentum surge for small-caps pic.twitter.com/yqEMW6tmir — Strategas (@StrategasRP) December 23, 2020
As you can see from the chart below, only 56.8% of stocks in the Russell 2000 had an operating profit in the past year and 51% had EPS profits. Usually, a significant amount of the index isn’t profitable, but obviously this is a particularly bad time because we are coming out of a recession. Most of the energy firms in this index are obviously in major trouble. Don’t focus on the past though. Investors are pricing in a cyclical recovery in 2021 as 1 million vaccines have gone out and more are on the way in January.
Only about half of the Russell 2000 has EPS or operating income profits over the last 12 months.
Read more in tonight's Closer: t.co/6dWxr78ZcP pic.twitter.com/sB0WeConFf — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 23, 2020
Conclusion
Retail investors usually don’t do well, but this year is another situation altogether. Many are seeing triple digit gains. ARK Invest is benefiting the most from this mania. Unprofitable stocks are beloved as sales growth matters more than profits. The Russell 2000 is the furthest above its 200 day moving average than ever before. Almost half of the small cap index didn’t make a profit in the past 12 months because of the recession.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--The Buffett Indicator.  What Would Warren Do??

We 're all bickering over the reasons why we 're not getting more crumbs , why are n't we asking @ @ @ @ @ rather go back to work , or get $ 600 from the government ? ''
@ @ @ @ @ to rely on government packages to stay afloat- start demanding control over your own life @

The Buffett Indicator. What Would Warren Do?? pic.twitter.com/igmo9XMF6I
— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) December 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--China Struggles to Keep the Lights On Amid Sky-High Demand

You ca n't make this up > > # China Struggles to Keep the Lights On Amid Sky-High Demandt.co/xnlLfTTMty pic.twitter.com/XGzQQ7tCmL

You can't make this up >>#China Struggles to Keep the Lights On Amid Sky-High Demandt.co/xnlLfTTMty pic.twitter.com/XGzQQ7tCmL
— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 (@chigrl) December 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Reminder: BABA stock does NOT entitle shareholders to equity in Alibaba

Been seeing a lot of users posting DD on Alibaba and making a bullish case for it .
Seems like the massive drop in share price now should be a fantastic opportunity to pick up the Amazon of China at only a forward P/E of 18 right ?
Not exactly .
This has been posted before in less detail , but I think it ’ s important to remind investors of the current circumstances arising during the anti-trust probe with China .
The reason why BABA is nose-diving on any extra news of government involvement is that BABA represents ownership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ islands , not actually Alibaba itself .
The shell company doesn ’ t even have ownership of Alibaba ’ s equity .
If you want proof of this , simply open up any of their financial statements filed with the SEC .
Chinese law forbids foreigners from owning strategic assets in the country , and Alibaba wouldn ’ t be able to keep its licenses if , say , a U.S. hedge fund directly bought into the company .
Basically , the Alibaba stock will buy you a stake in a Cayman Islands-registered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the profit from Alibaba ’ s Chinese assets but will not actually own them .
This structure is called a VIE .
So think about this , if Chinese laws prohibit foreigners from owning/investing in these kinds of assets in China , what would protect the shell company in the Caymans from enforcing their contract to receive profits from Alibaba if shit hit the fan with the CCP ?
If Alibaba gets broken up during anti-trust probes , how do we know which subsidiaries BABA ( the shell company in the caymans ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from ?
Heck , is this contract to receive profits even enforceable in China , where the law clearly states foreigners can ’ t own strategic investments ?
Is this VIE structure even legal in China ?
Beijing has never acknowledged the legality .
According to Harris Bricken , an international law firm : ” VIEs are illegal .
We disagree with those who are saying that what is proposed is a two tier , foreign/Chinese system .
” We don ’ t know the true answers to the above questions .
BABA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors one day decide that the “ contract ” to receive profits from Alibaba is basically BS .
Alibaba and Chinese executives come out a winner either way .
Alibaba was able to raise billions from foreign investors without giving up a single bit of ownership .
Oh , by the way , all Chinese listed companies on US exchanges are listed as Cayman shell companies , this isn ’ t specific to Alibaba .
Baidu and JD are set up the same way .
• Since many of you are asking , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way .
When I said all Chinese companies are listed this way , I literally mean 100 % .
• I don ’ t know why so many high-profile investors still buy these ADR ’ s .
My favourite value investor , Bill Miller , also holds a huge position in BABA .
I guess you ’ re either in the camp that believes China won ’ t enforce their own laws on foreign ownership so BABA ’ s VIE is undervalued , or that one day they will and so the intrinsic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0 $ because profits can never legally flow to foreign investors .
• The SEC just last month in a report published in November expressed serious concerns : “ These China-based Issuer VIE structures pose risks to U.S. investors that are not present in other organizational structures .
For example , exerting control through contractual arrangements may be less effective than direct equity ownership , and a company may incur substantial costs to enforce the terms of the arrangements , including those relating to the distribution of funds among the entities .
Further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the agreements establishing the VIE structure do not comply with Chinese law and regulations , including those related to restrictions on foreign ownership , which could subject a China-based Issuer to penalties , revocation of business and operating licenses , or forfeiture of ownership interests .
” Source : www.sec.gov/corpfin/disclosure-considerations-china-based-issuers • After some further research , Mainland Chinese companies listed on the HKE are also VIE ’ s and considered “ offshore ” .
Here is what the org structure looks like : cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/12/21/7b58a856-4294-11eb-be63-b2d34bb06b66_972x_163317.jpg Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by kimjungoon
Been seeing a lot of users posting DD on Alibaba and making a bullish case for it. Seems like the massive drop in share price now should be a fantastic opportunity to pick up the Amazon of China at only a forward P/E of 18 right? Not exactly.
This has been posted before in less detail, but I think it’s important to remind investors of the current circumstances arising during the anti-trust probe with China.
The reason why BABA is nose-diving on any extra news of government involvement is that BABA represents ownership of a shell company in the cayman islands, not actually Alibaba itself. The shell company doesn’t even have ownership of Alibaba’s equity. If you want proof of this, simply open up any of their financial statements filed with the SEC.
Chinese law forbids foreigners from owning strategic assets in the country, and Alibaba wouldn’t be able to keep its licenses if, say, a U.S. hedge fund directly bought into the company. Basically, the Alibaba stock will buy you a stake in a Cayman Islands-registered entity that is under contract to receive the profit from Alibaba’s Chinese assets but will not actually own them. This structure is called a VIE.
So think about this, if Chinese laws prohibit foreigners from owning/investing in these kinds of assets in China, what would protect the shell company in the Caymans from enforcing their contract to receive profits from Alibaba if shit hit the fan with the CCP? If Alibaba gets broken up during anti-trust probes, how do we know which subsidiaries BABA ( the shell company in the caymans) will be contractually obligated to receive profits from? Heck, is this contract to receive profits even enforceable in China, where the law clearly states foreigners can’t own strategic investments?
Is this VIE structure even legal in China? Beijing has never acknowledged the legality. According to Harris Bricken, an international law firm:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
” VIEs are illegal. We disagree with those who are saying that what is proposed is a two tier, foreign/Chinese system. ”
We don’t know the true answers to the above questions. BABA could easily be worth 0$ if investors one day decide that the “contract” to receive profits from Alibaba is basically BS.
Alibaba and Chinese executives come out a winner either way. Alibaba was able to raise billions from foreign investors without giving up a single bit of ownership.
Oh, by the way, all Chinese listed companies on US exchanges are listed as Cayman shell companies, this isn’t specific to Alibaba. Baidu and JD are set up the same way.
EDITS:
Since many of you are asking, yes NIO is also set up this way. When I said all Chinese companies are listed this way, I literally mean 100%. I don’t know why so many high-profile investors still buy these ADR’s. My favourite value investor, Bill Miller, also holds a huge position in BABA. I guess you’re either in the camp that believes China won’t enforce their own laws on foreign ownership so BABA’s VIE is undervalued, or that one day they will and so the intrinsic value of BABA’s VIE is 0$ because profits can never legally flow to foreign investors. The SEC just last month in a report published in November expressed serious concerns: “These China-based Issuer VIE structures pose risks to U.S. investors that are not present in other organizational structures. For example, exerting control through contractual arrangements may be less effective than direct equity ownership, and a company may incur substantial costs to enforce the terms of the arrangements, including those relating to the distribution of funds among the entities. Further, the Chinese government could determine that the agreements establishing the VIE structure do not comply with Chinese law and regulations, including those related to restrictions on foreign ownership, which could subject a China-based Issuer to penalties, revocation of business and operating licenses, or forfeiture of ownership interests. ” Source: www.sec.gov/corpfin/disclosure-considerations-china-based-issuers After some further research, Mainland Chinese companies listed on the HKE are also VIE’s and considered “offshore”. Here is what the org structure looks like: cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/12/21/7b58a856-4294-11eb-be63-b2d34bb06b66_972x_163317.jpg
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Massive ATT, 911 and Communications Outages After Suspicious Events In Nashville

Audio warning was being broadcast before explosion rocked downtown Nashville .
Video shows moment of blast .

Local television station WTVF is reporting a major outage of AT&T internet and phone service.-
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Learn More: www.zerohedge.com/markets/pow…


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Sen. Cotton Has PRICELSS Reaction to Joe Biden’s Latest Praise of His Son Hunter

ONE HAND WASHES THE OTHER : CA Dem Who Pushed Plum Contract to Biden-Linked Firm Tapped for Senate Seat .

Leah barkoukis from Townhall reports, Amid ongoing controversy over Hunter Biden’s shady foreign business dealings and a federal investigation into his taxes, President-elect Joe Biden nevertheless defended his son Hunter as “the smartest man I know.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbar…


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Audio warning was being broadcast before explosion rocked downtown Nashville. Video shows moment of

Audio warning was being broadcast before explosion rocked downtown Nashville. Video shows moment of blast.

VIDEO : Rudy Giuliani : `` Christmas NOT Canceled : You 're going to find it out all at once @ @ @ @ @ be very shocking to the country

CCTV FOOTAGE APPEARS TO CAPTURE OMINOUS ‘EVACUATION’ WARNING BEFORE NASHVILLE EXPLOSION.
Related: Nashville Police Officers Swept Apartments Ahead Of Explosion, Perhaps Saving Lives.
A massive explosion ‘linked to a vehicle’ rocked downtown Nashville early Christmas morning.
Downloaded before it’s memory holed.
The Mayor of Nashville giggles about the bombing.😳
pic.twitter.com/hgjPfgISd9
— DR. FIRST LADY😊🇺🇸 (@HLAurora63) December 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Will 2021 be another annus horribilis like 2020?

This has been quite a year to say the least as let ’ s face it how many of us had ever heard of Huhan province in China before ?
Back at the turn of the year the issue over there was pork and swine fever .
But as you can see below we did get a warning that trouble was ahead from the Bank of England via the use of the phrase “ on track ” that became a metaphor for absolute disaster in the Greek crisis .
Now we face a situation where economic output as measured by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was then .
Although there is a problem and in fact it is one driven by the way the Office for National Statistics has chosen to measure things .
An apparently small shift from inputs to outputs did this .
Actually this does feed into a point I have regularly made over the years which are that the 3 different ways of measuring GDP can come to very different answers .
This 6 % gap between an income and an output measure is the highest I have noted .
The next stop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit of a curate ’ s egg .
Having failed to raise interest-rates as promised back in 2013 the Bank had of course done a reverse ferret on its Forward Guidance by cutting to 0.25 % post the EU Leave vote .
Then we got a couple of rises as someone looked at the back of a disused cupboard and asked “ what does this button do ?
” .
However we now have an official Bank Rate of 0.1 % which is 0.4 % below the “ Lower Bound ” of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carney .
So we get another reminder of how even the Oxford English Dictionary has taken punishment in these times .
But there is more because if we look forwards to December next year via an old stomping ground of mine which is short sterling futures ( more particularly options ) we see that negative interest-rates are where bets have been placed .
The numbers are marginal so you can also argue for 0 % in the round but we remain singing along with Alicia Keys .
The reality is that in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as up to around the 6-year maturity the UK has negative bond yields .
This has been quite a shift from the 0.64 % of the 5-year yield as 2020 began and I pick that one out as it influences fixed-rate mortgages .
If we look further out we see that the 50-year yield has ( nearly ) halved to 0.65 % .
This is a ying and yang moment because on one side the UK government can borrow historically high amounts at historically low levels .
But on the other the business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been torpedoed .
This has been driven by the enormous scale of the bond buying by the Bank of England which has totaled some £290 billion this year with another £150 billion on its way in 2021 .
We are all in it together Well not quite as we mull two developments in the opposite direction .
One evolved from a botched effort by the Financial Conduct Authority to reduce overdraft interest-rates .
They miscalculated so badly that the 21 % at the beginning of 2021 has been replaced by 33 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you may have heard of ( Andrew Bailey ) like this .
Also mortgage interest-rates for weaker credit ( lower deposits ) have been rising in the latter part of 2020 .
This starts at a 15 % deposit where the 2-year fix last year was 1.71 % and is now 3 % .
If you only have a 5 % deposit then the 2-year fixed rate is now over 4 % .
This has had a year where it has been singing along with The Wonder Stuff .
Against the US Dollar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1.31 and with it now just above US $ 1.36 you might wonder what all the fuss is about ?
Except I still recall the twitter feeds of Financial Times journalists suggesting the only way was down at US $ 1.15 .
Indeed one recently suggested parity might be on the cards at yes you guessed it the recent low in the US £1.31s .
Another perspective is provided by the Japanese Yen which has had a strong 2020 .
We are at 141 Yen a bit below where we began the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bank of Japan which continues to try to weaken it and is against the trend for them trying to take manufacturing back home .
Oh well !
Okay so now let me look ahead .
At some point in 2020 ( hopefully the second quarter ) we can declare annual economic growth as surging again .
But we will still be below pre pandemic levels and will not regain them .
Official forecasts will predict a rosy 2022 in the same way they predicted a rosy 2021 only a few months ago .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trend is down .
By that I mean official ones because as we have noted above real world ones have diverged .
The threshold for interest-rate increases is now very high whereas any weakness makes central banks panic and run for the cut button .
The same is true of bond yields where QE as a method of yield curve control looks ever more permanent in line with our “ To Infinity !
And Beyond !
” theme .
As to the UK Pound £ we have ended up pretty much where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( so strictly a cent out as I type this ) .
It has been an odd year on that front as the Byline Times keeps popping up with the argument that hedge funds are controlling events such that they will make a fortune on any Brexit deal by being short the £ .
I shall take a short break but will be back in the New Year so Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all .

by Shaun Richards
This has been quite a year to say the least as let’s face it how many of us had ever heard of Huhan province in China before? Back at the turn of the year the issue over there was pork and swine fever. But as you can see below we did get a warning that trouble was ahead from the Bank of England via the use of the phrase “on track” that became a metaphor for absolute disaster in the Greek crisis.
On the economic front, the bar is more modest. At its December meeting, the MPC had projected that UK growth would pick up from below to above potential rates, supported by a reduction of domestic uncertainties, and a modest recovery in global growth. On balance, early indications are that both conditions underpinning the projected UK recovery are on track. ( January 30th)
Now we face a situation where economic output as measured by GDP is about a tenth lower than it was then. Although there is a problem and in fact it is one driven by the way the Office for National Statistics has chosen to measure things. An apparently small shift from inputs to outputs did this.
The ONS figures suggest that the fall in public sector output accounted for over 6 percentage points of the 22 per cent fall in total GDP in the first half of 2020. In other words, over a quarter of the UK’s reported fall in GDP in the first half of this year has, in effect, been attributed to closing schools and stopping hospital operations. This might be accurate, but had the ONS assumed that health and education output was unchanged in the first half of 2020, on the grounds that inputs – staff employed – were unchanged, the fall in UK GDP would have been 16 per cent, not 22 per cent. ( Simon Briscoe)
Actually this does feed into a point I have regularly made over the years which are that the 3 different ways of measuring GDP can come to very different answers. This 6% gap between an income and an output measure is the highest I have noted.
Interest-Rates
The next stop on our journey is here
Bank Rate should be maintained at 0.75%;
This was a bit of a curate’s egg. Having failed to raise interest-rates as promised back in 2013 the Bank had of course done a reverse ferret on its Forward Guidance by cutting to 0.25% post the EU Leave vote. Then we got a couple of rises as someone looked at the back of a disused cupboard and asked “what does this button do?”.
However we now have an official Bank Rate of 0.1% which is 0.4% below the “Lower Bound” of the previous Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. So we get another reminder of how even the Oxford English Dictionary has taken punishment in these times.
But there is more because if we look forwards to December next year via an old stomping ground of mine which is short sterling futures ( more particularly options) we see that negative interest-rates are where bets have been placed. The numbers are marginal so you can also argue for 0% in the round but we remain singing along with Alicia Keys.
Oh, baby
I, I, I, I’m fallin’
I, I, I, I’m fallin’
Fall
The reality is that in the real world we do have negative interest-rates as up to around the 6-year maturity the UK has negative bond yields. This has been quite a shift from the 0.64% of the 5-year yield as 2020 began and I pick that one out as it influences fixed-rate mortgages. If we look further out we see that the 50-year yield has (nearly) halved to 0.65%. This is a ying and yang moment because on one side the UK government can borrow historically high amounts at historically low levels. But on the other the business models of pension funds and long-term investments have been torpedoed.
This has been driven by the enormous scale of the bond buying by the Bank of England which has totaled some £290 billion this year with another £150 billion on its way in 2021.
We are all in it together
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Well not quite as we mull two developments in the opposite direction. One evolved from a botched effort by the Financial Conduct Authority to reduce overdraft interest-rates. They miscalculated so badly that the 21% at the beginning of 2021 has been replaced by 33% now. This was announced by someone you may have heard of (Andrew Bailey) like this.
Our radical package of remedies will make overdrafts fairer, simpler and easier to manage. We are simplifying and standardising the way banks charge for overdrafts. Following our changes we expect the typical cost of borrowing £100 through an unarranged overdraft to drop from £5 a day to less than 20 pence a day.
Also mortgage interest-rates for weaker credit ( lower deposits) have been rising in the latter part of 2020. This starts at a 15% deposit where the 2-year fix last year was 1.71% and is now 3%. If you only have a 5% deposit then the 2-year fixed rate is now over 4%.
The UK Pound
This has had a year where it has been singing along with The Wonder Stuff.
Dizzy,
I’m so Dizzy, my head is spinning
Like a whirlpool, it never ends
And it’s you girl, making it spin
You’re making me dizzy
Against the US Dollar it started the year around US $1.31 and with it now just above US $1.36 you might wonder what all the fuss is about? Except I still recall the twitter feeds of Financial Times journalists suggesting the only way was down at US $1.15. Indeed one recently suggested parity might be on the cards at yes you guessed it the recent low in the US £1.31s.
Another perspective is provided by the Japanese Yen which has had a strong 2020. We are at 141 Yen a bit below where we began the year. This is bad news for the Bank of Japan which continues to try to weaken it and is against the trend for them trying to take manufacturing back home. Oh well!
Comment
Okay so now let me look ahead. At some point in 2020 ( hopefully the second quarter) we can declare annual economic growth as surging again. But we will still be below pre pandemic levels and will not regain them. Official forecasts will predict a rosy 2022 in the same way they predicted a rosy 2021 only a few months ago.
In terms of interest-rates I still believe the trend is down. By that I mean official ones because as we have noted above real world ones have diverged. The threshold for interest-rate increases is now very high whereas any weakness makes central banks panic and run for the cut button. The same is true of bond yields where QE as a method of yield curve control looks ever more permanent in line with our “To Infinity! And Beyond!” theme.
As to the UK Pound £ we have ended up pretty much where I expected which is US $1.35 ( so strictly a cent out as I type this). It has been an odd year on that front as the Byline Times keeps popping up with the argument that hedge funds are controlling events such that they will make a fortune on any Brexit deal by being short the £.
I shall take a short break but will be back in the New Year so Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Good job, demorats: California, the poorest state in America

This is what progressives can do to a once beautiful state .

by DCG
This is what progressives can do to a once beautiful state.
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Tucker Carlson goes all in on California, the poorest state in America. pic.twitter.com/as16IgPJ2Y — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) December 24, 2020
Leftists ruin everything they touch.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Liberal logic in Seattle: Thoughts on policing

While reading this “ Thoughts on policing in Seattle ” rant below , keep the following in mind : Seattle ’ s ten-year plan to end homeless originated in 2005 .
In Seattle/King County they currently spend ONE BILLION taxpayer dollars annually to “ fight ” homelessness .
Today , public homelessness has never been this bad across Seattle .
Seattle and King County bureaucrats do not punish repeat criminal offenders .
Just a year ago a King County judge spoke about why repeat offenders receive no punishments : “ We ’ re just talking about property crime.
” A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared the following on TwitLonger : “ I currently manage a small business in Seattle , and this month I ’ ve experienced more crime than ever- burglary , break in attempts , shoplifting , shoplifting while I was cleaning up after the burglary .
Today I was asked to do an interview with Jonathan Choe of KOMO News , and after some thought and discussion , I ’ ve declined to do it .
He was reporting on the suspect who will be in court tomorrow , not for our burglary ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with our merchandise under his arm , still tagged ) but for assaulting a police officer , later that week .
While on the phone , Mr. Choe indicated that this would be a report on the current state of prosecution in Seattle , and while I ’ m still very much angry , and very hurt , by what ’ s happened to my place of work ( thousands of dollars of damage in an otherwise exhausting , challenging year !
An injured employee !
Sleepless nights ! )
, I do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would not be turned into propaganda .
The arrest of the burglar gives me no joy , and no security .
It will not pay for the smashed windows or damaged and destroyed product .
Yes , it deeply disturbs me that I do not feel safe in my community and that as it stands now , I feel vulnerable to criminals .
But it upsets me even more that I knew there would be no protection and that I could not trust the people who claim to serve and protect to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even just putting these words out into the world , I fear retaliation .
We are a very small business and this has been a very tough year .
I wish I trusted the systems that are supposed to be in place to protect us to do more .
I wish I felt like the tax dollars we pay did something besides brutalizing protesters and the unhoused .
The morning after the burglary , I stood among the wreckage and I just felt- sad .
Our burglar is a repeat offender and drug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ felt like I was sitting under a collapsed house of cards .
His arrest and incarceration wouldn ’ t pay for the damage .
It wouldn ’ t save us from losing our insurance and thus our lease ( if it comes to that . )
It will only make it harder for him to break out of a cycle of violence .
And I looked out the door , at the encampments and the people who wander our neighborhood every day , and I saw all of it feeding back into each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If only we had systems to help people before they felt they needed to smash windows .
There are people doing incredible mutual aid work here in Seattle .
But the system itself is too broken to save .
I am sick to death of people asking me “ aren ’ t you worried there will be more of this if we defund SPD ?
” No , what I ’ m afraid of is more of this as more and more people end up on the streets in the cold , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I am afraid of more and more tax dollars bleeding into the pocket of the police officer who sometimes sits outside our shop , blocking our door with his cruiser , sleeping behind the wheel , always leaving before sundown .
I am afraid for the regulars I have who are unhoused , who are good people , kind people , who have been unlucky in life .
I am afraid to call police because I am afraid to be the reason someone is killed .
I am just one person .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now it ’ s a challenge just surviving , and I am overwhelmed , exhausted , and afraid .
It seems easier to close this document and leave it as a diary entry rather than sharing it .
But with KOMO News waiting breathlessly to report on Seattle as a war zone , I want to be heard by someone .
If this city is a war zone it is of the SPD ’ s own making .
Everyone wants to fetishize my fear and anger against one criminal , and I am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But no one wants to hear about the people from the unhoused community who saw us standing in the night and checked in to offer words of support , or plywood for our windows .
This city is not a war zone- it feels dangerous right now , but the danger is in the fabric of society allowing inequality to pull it apart .
Jeff Bezos and Jenny Durkan have done more to make me feel unsafe than the encampments , but no one ’ s rushing to interview me about that .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ own views and not necessarily representative of my business as a whole .
Defund SPD , shop local , Black Lives Matter .
And please be kind .
It ’ s the holidays , for f*ck ’ s sake.
” This is a clear example of why people in Seattle keep electing progressives who only make conditions worse in that city .

by DCG
While reading this “Thoughts on policing in Seattle” rant below, keep the following in mind:
Seattle’s ten-year plan to end homeless originated in 2005. In Seattle/King County they currently spend ONE BILLION taxpayer dollars annually to “fight” homelessness. Today, public homelessness has never been this bad across Seattle.
Seattle and King County bureaucrats do not punish repeat criminal offenders. Just a year ago a King County judge spoke about why repeat offenders receive no punishments: “We’re just talking about property crime.”
A young (28-year-old) Seattle business owner shared the following on TwitLonger:
“I currently manage a small business in Seattle, and this month I’ve experienced more crime than ever- burglary, break in attempts, shoplifting, shoplifting while I was cleaning up after the burglary. Today I was asked to do an interview with Jonathan Choe of KOMO News, and after some thought and discussion, I’ve declined to do it. He was reporting on the suspect who will be in court tomorrow, not for our burglary (though he was arrested that same night with our merchandise under his arm, still tagged) but for assaulting a police officer, later that week. While on the phone, Mr. Choe indicated that this would be a report on the current state of prosecution in Seattle, and while I’m still very much angry, and very hurt, by what’s happened to my place of work (thousands of dollars of damage in an otherwise exhausting, challenging year! An injured employee! Sleepless nights!), I do not trust that my words on camera would not be turned into propaganda.
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The arrest of the burglar gives me no joy, and no security. It will not pay for the smashed windows or damaged and destroyed product. Yes, it deeply disturbs me that I do not feel safe in my community and that as it stands now, I feel vulnerable to criminals. But it upsets me even more that I knew there would be no protection and that I could not trust the people who claim to serve and protect to do any of that. It scares me even just putting these words out into the world, I fear retaliation. We are a very small business and this has been a very tough year. I wish I trusted the systems that are supposed to be in place to protect us to do more. I wish I felt like the tax dollars we pay did something besides brutalizing protesters and the unhoused. The morning after the burglary, I stood among the wreckage and I just felt- sad. Our burglar is a repeat offender and drug user, and at that moment it felt like I was sitting under a collapsed house of cards. His arrest and incarceration wouldn’t pay for the damage. It wouldn’t save us from losing our insurance and thus our lease (if it comes to that.) It will only make it harder for him to break out of a cycle of violence. And I looked out the door, at the encampments and the people who wander our neighborhood every day, and I saw all of it feeding back into each other like a terrible oroboros of suffering.
If only we had systems to help people before they felt they needed to smash windows. There are people doing incredible mutual aid work here in Seattle. But the system itself is too broken to save. I am sick to death of people asking me “aren’t you worried there will be more of this if we defund SPD?” No, what I’m afraid of is more of this as more and more people end up on the streets in the cold, victims of evictions and mounting debts. I am afraid of more and more tax dollars bleeding into the pocket of the police officer who sometimes sits outside our shop, blocking our door with his cruiser, sleeping behind the wheel, always leaving before sundown. I am afraid for the regulars I have who are unhoused, who are good people, kind people, who have been unlucky in life. I am afraid to call police because I am afraid to be the reason someone is killed.
I am just one person. I don’t have answers. Right now it’s a challenge just surviving, and I am overwhelmed, exhausted, and afraid. It seems easier to close this document and leave it as a diary entry rather than sharing it. But with KOMO News waiting breathlessly to report on Seattle as a war zone, I want to be heard by someone. If this city is a war zone it is of the SPD’s own making. Everyone wants to fetishize my fear and anger against one criminal, and I am scared, and I am angry. But no one wants to hear about the people from the unhoused community who saw us standing in the night and checked in to offer words of support, or plywood for our windows. This city is not a war zone- it feels dangerous right now, but the danger is in the fabric of society allowing inequality to pull it apart. Jeff Bezos and Jenny Durkan have done more to make me feel unsafe than the encampments, but no one’s rushing to interview me about that.
As always, these words are my own views and not necessarily representative of my business as a whole. Defund SPD, shop local, Black Lives Matter. And please be kind. It’s the holidays, for f*ck’s sake.”
This is a clear example of why people in Seattle keep electing progressives who only make conditions worse in that city.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Wikileaks just dumped all of their files online.

Wikileaks just dumped all of their files online .
Everything from Hillary Clinton ’ s emails , McCain ’ s @ @ @ @ @ done by an FBI sniper , Steve Jobs HIV letter , PedoPodesta , Afghanistan , @ @ @ @ @ , CIA agents arrested for rape , WHO pandemic .
Happy Digging !
Here you @ @ @ @ @ pass it on….. file.wikileaks.org/file/

Wikileaks just dumped all of their files online. Everything from Hillary Clinton’s emails, McCain’s being guilty, Vegas shooting done by an FBI sniper, Steve Jobs HIV letter, PedoPodesta, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Bilderberg, CIA agents arrested for rape, WHO pandemic. Happy Digging! Here you go, please read and pass it on…..
file.wikileaks.org/file/
These are Clinton’s emails:
file.wikileaks.org/file/clinton-emails/
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h/t QuantumLove


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Gearing up for a very Cold War? Russia reopens Soviet-era lab to develop weapons for icy Arctic conf

Gearing up for a very Cold War? Russia reopens Soviet-era lab to develop weapons for icy Arctic conflict

A specialist research facility has been reopened in Russia , tasked with testing weapons that can withstand freezing temperatures and @ @ @ @ @ of the world .
The Central Scientific Research Institute for Precision Machine Engineering , headquartered @ @ @ @ @ on Thursday that the laboratory had received state certification and would begin testing imminently .
@ @ @ @ @ , it had fallen into disrepair and its equipment has since been replaced and restored @ @ @ @ @ , the head of the scientific and technical centre at the Institute said that “ @ @ @ @ @ step towards restoring this unique technological capability that had been lost after the fall of @ @ @ @

A specialist research facility has been reopened in Russia, tasked with testing weapons that can withstand freezing temperatures and harsh weather at the ends of the world.
The Central Scientific Research Institute for Precision Machine Engineering, headquartered just outside Moscow, announced on Thursday that the laboratory had received state certification and would begin testing imminently. Founded under the Soviet Union, it had fallen into disrepair and its equipment has since been replaced and restored.
In a press release, the head of the scientific and technical centre at the Institute said that “the certification is the final step towards restoring this unique technological capability that had been lost after the fall of the USSR.”
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www.rt.com/russia/510645-soviet-era-lab-arctic-exploration/
h/t AggregateThreat


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--NSA Whistleblower Kirk Wiebe Exposes Digital Election Rigging Using CIA’s Hammer and Scorecard

Is all talk about the use of CIA computer programs called Hammer and Scorecard to digitally change millions of votes and steal the election for Joe Biden sheer “ nonsense ” ?
It is according to Snopes , as well as the other establishment-anointed “ fact checkers ” such as PolitiFact.com , FactCheck.org , BuzzFeedNews.com , and MSN.com .
So that settles the matter , right ?
Actually , it does not .
As has been reliably shown in critical reports by diverse sources ( see here , here , here , and here ) , including The New American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notorious for its left-leaning bias .
Ditto for many of the other “ fact checkers ” that comprise the gaslighting chorus that pretends to debunk any claim that contradicts the party line laid down by the Fake News industrial complex : “ Nothing to see here , just silly conspiracy theories , move along.
” ( We ’ ll return to Snopes and the Big Media-aligned coterie of fact-check fraudsters later on . )
Wiebe served in the NSA for decades and has been a key sentinel in many major national security crises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dr. William Binney and Ed Loomis , he helped develop many of the software programs and technologies that are crucially important in finding , monitoring , and tracking terrorists globally , as well keeping tabs on foreign state actors such as Russia , China , Cuba , and Iran .
Wiebe , Binney , and Loomis were pioneers in the computer age for Signals Intelligence ( SigInt ) .
For his many contributions to our nation ’ s security , Wiebe was awarded the Meritorious Civilian Service Award , NSA ’ s second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Loomis left the NSA when they learned that programs they had helped develop to keep America safe from foreign enemies were being used illegally by the NSA to spy on virtually all Americans .
The trio became whistleblowers to alert American elected officials and the American people that the federal alphabet spy agencies are out of control .
Much of the media that treated them as heroes when they were exposing the illegal surveillance-state operations of the Republican Bush administration had little to no interest in their continued warnings when the Democrat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the illegal surveillance .
Obama ’ s Director of National Intelligence ( DNI ) James Clapper publicly lied and committed perjury in congressional hearings when he stated that NSA has not/does not illegally spy on and collect data ( including phone calls , texts , and emails ) of millions of Americans .
Yet , not only was Clapper not prosecuted for perjury and criminal violation of the privacy rights of tens of millions of Americans , he was rewarded with a commentator job at CNN .
Meanwhile Wiebe , Binney , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they refuse to go along with the party line narrative of Big Media and the Deep State “ Intelligence Community ” ( IC ) .
On November 11 , The New American conducted a video interview with Lt. General Thomas G. McInerney ( USAF , retired ) , who has been the most high-profile expert warning about the digital side of the election rigging in tandem with the more traditional vote-stuffing methods .
The three-star general , a highly decorated Vietnam War fighter pilot ( over 400 combat missions ) and top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that what we have recently experienced is not simply vote fraud , but actual cyber warfare carried out by “ enemies foreign and domestic.
” General McInerney laid out the criminal use of the secret Hammer-Scorecard program by the Obama administration ( including DNI Clapper , CIA chief Brennan , and FBI director Comey ) to throw U.S. elections .

Is all talk about the use of CIA computer programs called Hammer and Scorecard to digitally change millions of votes and steal the election for Joe Biden sheer “nonsense”? It is according to Snopes, as well as the other establishment-anointed “fact checkers” such as PolitiFact.com, FactCheck.org, BuzzFeedNews.com, and MSN.com. So that settles the matter, right? Actually, it does not.
As has been reliably shown in critical reports by diverse sources (see here, here, here, and here), including The New American (see here), Snopes is notorious for its left-leaning bias. Ditto for many of the other “fact checkers” that comprise the gaslighting chorus that pretends to debunk any claim that contradicts the party line laid down by the Fake News industrial complex: “Nothing to see here, just silly conspiracy theories, move along.” (We’ll return to Snopes and the Big Media-aligned coterie of fact-check fraudsters later on.)
Wiebe served in the NSA for decades and has been a key sentinel in many major national security crises and challenges. Together with the legendary Dr. William Binney and Ed Loomis, he helped develop many of the software programs and technologies that are crucially important in finding, monitoring, and tracking terrorists globally, as well keeping tabs on foreign state actors such as Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran. Wiebe, Binney, and Loomis were pioneers in the computer age for Signals Intelligence (SigInt).
For his many contributions to our nation’s security, Wiebe was awarded the Meritorious Civilian Service Award, NSA’s second highest distinction. Wiebe, Binney, and Loomis left the NSA when they learned that programs they had helped develop to keep America safe from foreign enemies were being used illegally by the NSA to spy on virtually all Americans. The trio became whistleblowers to alert American elected officials and the American people that the federal alphabet spy agencies are out of control.
Much of the media that treated them as heroes when they were exposing the illegal surveillance-state operations of the Republican Bush administration had little to no interest in their continued warnings when the Democrat Obama administration continued — and expanded — the illegal surveillance. Obama’s Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper publicly lied and committed perjury in congressional hearings when he stated that NSA has not/does not illegally spy on and collect data (including phone calls, texts, and emails) of millions of Americans. Yet, not only was Clapper not prosecuted for perjury and criminal violation of the privacy rights of tens of millions of Americans, he was rewarded with a commentator job at CNN. Meanwhile Wiebe, Binney, and Loomis continue to be considered media outcasts because they refuse to go along with the party line narrative of Big Media and the Deep State “Intelligence Community” (IC).
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Wiebe Confirms General McInerney’s Cyber Warfare Thesis
On November 11, The New American conducted a video interview with Lt. General Thomas G. McInerney (USAF, retired), who has been the most high-profile expert warning about the digital side of the election rigging in tandem with the more traditional vote-stuffing methods. The three-star general, a highly decorated Vietnam War fighter pilot (over 400 combat missions) and top USAF/NORAD commander and DOD official, emphasizes that what we have recently experienced is not simply vote fraud, but actual cyber warfare carried out by “enemies foreign and domestic.” General McInerney laid out the criminal use of the secret Hammer-Scorecard program by the Obama administration (including DNI Clapper, CIA chief Brennan, and FBI director Comey) to throw U.S. elections.
thenewamerican.com/nsa-whistleblower-kirk-wiebe-exposes-digital-election-rigging-using-cias-hammer-and-scorecard/
h/t Coastie Patriot


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--The Collapse Of U.S. Shale Oil Production Has Now Begun

It ’ s Official .
The collapse of U.S. shale oil production has begun .
The mighty Shale Oil BOOM has now finally turned into a BUST .
While the pandemic shutdowns sped up the process , the collapse of the U.S. shale industry was going to occur , regardless .
According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency , shale oil production will continue to decline below 7.5 million barrels per day in January .
At the peak last year , the top five shale oil fields combined production reached nearly 9.2 million barrels per day .
Since the shutdowns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curtailed shale oil production .
However , all of these wells have now been brought online , but the massive decline rate is kicking in due to a lack of drilling and completion activity .
As we can see in the chart below , shale oil production in these five fields fell from 9.16 million barrels per day during the peak in 2019 to 7.27 million barrels per day forecasted next month ( January ) .
In a little more than a year , the combined shale production from these five fields declined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the chart above is shown in thousand barrels per day .
According to Shaleprofile.com , these five fields add more than 11,000 new wells in 2019 .
In looking at the new well trend data for Jan-Oct 2020 , I would be surprised to see more than a total of about 5,000 wells added this year .
While the Permian suffered the highest decline in shale oil production , the biggest loser in percentage terms was the Anadarko Field .
Oil production from the Anadarko declined from 603,000 barrels per day ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a forecasted 363,000 bd in January .
That ’ s a stunning 40 % decline in a little more than a year .
The Niobrara in Colorado reported the next largest decline at 34 % , followed by the Eagle Ford ( -30 % ) , Bakken ( -22 % ) , and Permian ( -18 % ) .
The average percentage of production decline from the fields since the peak last year was 21 % .
Oil Geologist Art Berman produced this chart showing where he forecasts U.S. oil production by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil production will decline to 7.7 million barrels per day by September 2021 .
However , I don ’ t believe this forecast will happen because his chart shows total U.S. oil production will be approximately 10.2 million barrels per day by January 2021 .
The EIA reports that U.S. oil production is 11.0 million barrels per day on Dec 11th .
It ’ s probably more realistic to forecast a decline to 9.5-10 million barrels per day by September 2021 .
We will see .
Regardless , the mightily U.S. shale oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While it will take 5-10 years to collapse by 75 % , it ’ s not ever coming back .
DISCLAIMER : SRSrocco Report provides intelligent , well-researched information to those with interest in the economy and investing .
Neither SRSrocco Report nor any of its owners , officers , directors , employees , subsidiaries , affiliates , licensors , service and content providers , producers or agents provide financial advisement services .
Neither do we work miracles .
We provide our content and opinions to readers only so that they may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ circumstances should you interpret opinions which SRSrocco Report or Steve St. Angelo offers on this or any other website as financial advice .
Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report .
You can also follow us on Twitter and Youtube .
Please , consider becoming an SRSrocco Report Member !
!

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report
It’s Official. The collapse of U.S. shale oil production has begun. The mighty Shale Oil BOOM has now finally turned into a BUST. While the pandemic shutdowns sped up the process, the collapse of the U.S. shale industry was going to occur, regardless. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, shale oil production will continue to decline below 7.5 million barrels per day in January.
At the peak last year, the top five shale oil fields combined production reached nearly 9.2 million barrels per day. Since the shutdowns during March-April, many of the companies curtailed shale oil production. However, all of these wells have now been brought online, but the massive decline rate is kicking in due to a lack of drilling and completion activity.
As we can see in the chart below, shale oil production in these five fields fell from 9.16 million barrels per day during the peak in 2019 to 7.27 million barrels per day forecasted next month (January).
In a little more than a year, the combined shale production from these five fields declined by 1.9 million barrels. The data in the chart above is shown in thousand barrels per day. According to Shaleprofile.com, these five fields add more than 11,000 new wells in 2019. In looking at the new well trend data for Jan-Oct 2020, I would be surprised to see more than a total of about 5,000 wells added this year.
While the Permian suffered the highest decline in shale oil production, the biggest loser in percentage terms was the Anadarko Field. Oil production from the Anadarko declined from 603,000 barrels per day (b/d) at the peak last year to a forecasted 363,000 bd in January. That’s a stunning 40% decline in a little more than a year.
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The Niobrara in Colorado reported the next largest decline at 34%, followed by the Eagle Ford (-30%), Bakken (-22%), and Permian (-18%). The average percentage of production decline from the fields since the peak last year was 21%.
Oil Geologist Art Berman produced this chart showing where he forecasts U.S. oil production by September 2021.
Art believes total U.S. oil production will decline to 7.7 million barrels per day by September 2021. However, I don’t believe this forecast will happen because his chart shows total U.S. oil production will be approximately 10.2 million barrels per day by January 2021. The EIA reports that U.S. oil production is 11.0 million barrels per day on Dec 11th.
It’s probably more realistic to forecast a decline to 9.5-10 million barrels per day by September 2021. We will see. Regardless, the mightily U.S. shale oil Boom has now turned into a Bust. While it will take 5-10 years to collapse by 75%, it’s not ever coming back.
DISCLAIMER: SRSrocco Report provides intelligent, well-researched information to those with interest in the economy and investing. Neither SRSrocco Report nor any of its owners, officers, directors, employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, licensors, service and content providers, producers or agents provide financial advisement services. Neither do we work miracles. We provide our content and opinions to readers only so that they may make informed investment decisions. Under no circumstances should you interpret opinions which SRSrocco Report or Steve St. Angelo offers on this or any other website as financial advice.
Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report. You can also follow us on Twitter and Youtube. Please, consider becoming an SRSrocco Report Member!!


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Korea will begin to monetarily reward it’s citizens for reporting groups of 5+

In a time where most Americans are suffering financially , I can see how they can pull this off here @ @ @ @

In a time where most Americans are suffering financially, I can see how they can pull this off here. Get ready.
news.v.daum.net/v/20201224040830280
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--They promised you some money just before Christmas. Hope you didn’t spend it before you got it.

After a horrible year some families are still trying to make a decent Christmas for their loved ones .
The government passed a stimulus with $ 600 for every good boy and girl .
They did it with just a few days left before Christmas .
A miracle !
Rejoice !
You can go buy that PS5 or purchase that Amazon cart .
You can make little Johnny and little Rosie the hap-hap-happiest at the end of a shit year .
A few of you sat back.. $ 600 ?
$ 600 ?
WTF am I supposed to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy gifts with that .
I ’ m too far behind .
Well , then you were told… $ 2000 .
$ 2000 is coming for you !
You still have 2 days , you can go spend , spend , spend !
!
Go ahead , you ’ ll have $ 2000 next week .
You can make Christmas the hap-hap-happiest time of the year !
!
Spread that Christmas joy !
Oh yeah , sike .
Get fucked .
Spend the last of what you ’ ve got so our big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the holiday that all of the proles went broke .
Allow evictions again .
Allow unemployment to expire .
Withhold any and all help from the people who need it .
The saddest part ?
Haven ’ t even gotten to the conspiracy theory regarding this yet .
While the intent is editorialized , this is the reality you live in if you ’ re an American .
This is the way your 2020 ends .
Now , before you start pointing fingers like a buffoon .
Realize one thing.. if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re missing the bigger picture .
You ’ re looking at the trees , not the forest .
I don ’ t want to hear what the media claimed Jack in the Box said about Jim and Bob and this and that , red , blue , yellow , white , gold , and silver .
The bigger part is the whole .
The whole shebang took it ’ s big ol ’ dick out and f*cked you .
Anybody here that bought into the lie , that gave into the hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bit extra to try and share just a little bit more.. you were taken advantage of and f*cked for being decent .
Now we can talk conspiracies .
What does big brother or whoever gain from you being a broke b*tch ?
We ’ re going into this dark winter and the majority of American citizens are cash-strapped , tapping savings , barely avoiding homelessness and risking death from some crazy virus every time they go to work .
Besides the mental implications , which again , aren ’ t conspiracy , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big plan here ?
Covid-21 going to drop it ’ s new mixtape to kick off the new year ?
Are they going to cut the power ?
Flip the internet switch ?
Put your small business out of bu.. oh wait , we ’ re past reality , conspiracy talk only I forgot .
One thing ’ s for sure .
Governments all over the world have their citizens suckling at the teet .
The 99 % .
And they have most of these people so brainwashed that they think they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s hard to see any form of hope in my own people .
That ’ s how bad it ’ s gotten .
What a shame .

by uhyeahokwhateva
After a horrible year some families are still trying to make a decent Christmas for their loved ones. The government passed a stimulus with $600 for every good boy and girl. They did it with just a few days left before Christmas. A miracle! Rejoice! You can go buy that PS5 or purchase that Amazon cart. You can make little Johnny and little Rosie the hap-hap-happiest at the end of a shit year.
A few of you sat back.. $600? $600? WTF am I supposed to do with $600? I can’t buy gifts with that. I’m too far behind. Well, then you were told… $2000. $2000 is coming for you! You still have 2 days, you can go spend, spend, spend!! Go ahead, you’ll have $2000 next week. You can make Christmas the hap-hap-happiest time of the year!! Spread that Christmas joy!
Oh yeah, sike. Get fucked. Spend the last of what you’ve got so our big business doesn’t hurt too bad over the holiday that all of the proles went broke. Allow evictions again. Allow unemployment to expire. Withhold any and all help from the people who need it. The saddest part? Haven’t even gotten to the conspiracy theory regarding this yet. While the intent is editorialized, this is the reality you live in if you’re an American. This is the way your 2020 ends.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now, before you start pointing fingers like a buffoon. Realize one thing.. if you point fingers at one side, you’re missing the bigger picture. You’re looking at the trees, not the forest. I don’t want to hear what the media claimed Jack in the Box said about Jim and Bob and this and that, red, blue, yellow, white, gold, and silver. The bigger part is the whole. The whole shebang took it’s big ol’ dick out and f*cked you. Anybody here that bought into the lie, that gave into the hope, and stretched themselves just that tad bit extra to try and share just a little bit more.. you were taken advantage of and f*cked for being decent.
Now we can talk conspiracies. What does big brother or whoever gain from you being a broke b*tch? We’re going into this dark winter and the majority of American citizens are cash-strapped, tapping savings, barely avoiding homelessness and risking death from some crazy virus every time they go to work. Besides the mental implications, which again, aren’t conspiracy, they’re scientific fact.. what is the big plan here? Covid-21 going to drop it’s new mixtape to kick off the new year? Are they going to cut the power? Flip the internet switch? Put your small business out of bu.. oh wait, we’re past reality, conspiracy talk only I forgot.
One thing’s for sure. Governments all over the world have their citizens suckling at the teet. The 99%. And they have most of these people so brainwashed that they think they have time to argue about who did what. It’s hard to see any form of hope in my own people. That’s how bad it’s gotten. What a shame.
Merry Christmas. In God Money We Trust.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--China’s had “zero” Covid deaths in the last 9 months. Isn’t that amazing?

The media pull the same 300,000+ figure for the U.S. from the same source this bogus Chinese number comes from @ @ @ @ @ biggest story in the world – a nation of 1.4 billion , where the virus @ @ @ @ @ it .
It ’ s all bullshit .
Their numbers are ridiculously artificially low , @ @ @ @ @ .
But hey , masks work .
/s/

by Chiliad5
The media pull the same 300,000+ figure for the U.S. from the same source this bogus Chinese number comes from.
This should be the biggest story in the world – a nation of 1.4 billion, where the virus originated, somehow completely eradicating it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It’s all bullshit. Their numbers are ridiculously artificially low, ours are ridiculously artificially high. But hey, masks work. /s/
h/t Chiliad5


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Iraqi transport minister claims first airport was built 7,000 years ago in Iraq by ancient Sumerians

An Iraqi minister has claimed that the ancient Sumerians travelled to Pluto in spaceships thousands of years ago .
Fox News has aired a news package that debunked election fraud claims made by three of its own hosts after an electronic voting company threatened legal action against the network .
READ Fox News has aired a news package that debunked election fraud claims made by three of its own hosts after an electronic voting company threatened legal action against the network .
Kazem Finjan , Iraq ’ s Transport Minister , told reporters in Dhi Qar , south Iraq , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was built there in around 5,000 BC .
He said the ancient civilisation of Sumer , one of the oldest known societies , used the airport for space exploration and even discovered Pluto , according to news website The New Arab .
Alongside a video of the news conference posted on Twitter , Hayder al-Khoei , a researcher at the Centre for Academic Shi ’ a Studies , wrote : “ Awkward moment and I don ’ t think anyone was brave enough to contradict him ” .
First , Democrats wanted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jail .
Now , they want to prioritize the # COVID19 vaccine for prisoners .

An Iraqi minister has claimed that the ancient Sumerians travelled to Pluto in spaceships thousands of years ago.
Kazem Finjan, Iraq’s Transport Minister, told reporters in Dhi Qar, south Iraq, that the world’s first airport was built there in around 5,000 BC.
He said the ancient civilisation of Sumer, one of the oldest known societies, used the airport for space exploration and even discovered Pluto, according to news website The New Arab.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Doug Casey on the Calls for Fed to Address Inequality, Climate Change, and More…

International Man : Recently , the calls for the Fed to add a third mandate to address racial and economic inequality have grown louder .
Will we see a redistribution of wealth soon ?
Doug Casey : It seems the movement towards black “ reparations ” is building momentum .
These things always start small , testing the water , then grow when nobody either laughs at them for being stupid or decries them as evil .
Most Americans are now too intimidated and confused to do that , however .
It ’ s similar to MMT .
A year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Theory was too outrageous a notion for a sensible person to bother considering ; now , it ’ s practically public policy .
And , incidentally , when I say “ black , ” I don ’ t capitalize the word , as very recent politically correct fashion dictates .
Capitalizing it just emphasizes and accentuates racial differences—as do most “ woke ” practices .
It ’ s another sign of the mass insanity that ’ s sweeping the world .
Like almost everybody wearing masks when walking down the street , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to mention locking down the whole country , practically the entire world , like a prison .
It ’ s quite ironic to me .
In the past , I ’ ve often joked that the Earth was a prison planet .
Now it ’ s no joke .
Anyway , the idea of reparations is even more insane , but it ’ s taking off .
It ’ s the destructive , racist idea of affirmative action on steroids .
It ’ s one genuinely crazy thing after another , like NASDAQ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two board members of so-called minority groups , including one non-white person and one with a sexual aberration .
Movies are expected to have the same kind of composition now .
You see it to a large degree in commercials on TV .
When I watch the boob-tube , I feel like I ’ m the only straight white male left in the US .
The discrimination against Asians is equally criminal , especially when it comes to getting into college .
If you ’ re a smart and hard-working Asian , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harder working to compete .
These PC fools are making accidents of birth into defining features of existence .
The only good thing about the trend is that these people may be overreaching and will self-destruct .
Hopefully , that will happen before they destroy society itself .
International Man : Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spoken in length about the Fed ’ s interest to address economic inequality .
Ironically , the one institution that is single-handedly responsible for destructive monetary policies and money printing of epic proportions plans to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” the very problem they created .
What are your thoughts on this ?
Doug Casey : The Fed is one of the main creators of inequality .
The Establishment , the Deep State types , and the other cronies who hang around the government are closest to the fire hydrant of money spewing from the Fed .
They get their fill of it before any trickles down to the “ little people.
” The solution to the problem is to abolish the Fed .
But it ’ s so entrenched and so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s impossible .
At least short of a monetary collapse—although a monetary collapse is in the cards .
But , at a minimum , the Fed shouldn ’ t try to act as a social engineer .
It certainly shouldn ’ t give money to blacks just because they ’ re black in the form of reparations or for any other reason .
The notion is criminally stupid .
All exchange must be mutual and free .
If it ’ s not , it breeds resentment for both the giver and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and free government housing , has already destroyed black families and black individuals .
Places like Cabrini-Green and Pruitt-Igoe are monuments to government planning .
If the Fed gets involved in passing out more free money , it ’ s only going to cement the average black more solidly to the bottom of society and create more race antagonism .
Well-positioned blacks like Jesse Jackson , Al Sharpton , Maxine Waters , and hundreds of others who are getting rich by virtue of being black are all for it , of course .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ race-baiting as virtue signaling .
International Man : Recently , Joe Biden announced that he would nominate former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen for US Treasury Secretary .
In her first remarks , Yellen spoke about her plans to address racial disparities and inequality .
Is there a trend developing here where racial and economic inequality has become the justification for dangerous monetary policies ?
Doug Casey : Race has become a justification for practically everything today .
Deep State types in general , and the Democrats in particular , emphasize race and gender @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the situation .
This nomination is an excellent deal for Yellen , who ’ s moved from being a nothing nobody academic to Fed Chair , and now Treasury Secretary .
By the time she finishes her term in office , she ’ ll be a centimillionaire—the usual drill , six-figure speeches , seven-figure book contracts , fat directors fees , consulting fees , and insider investment deals .
She ’ ll do well for someone who has zero business experience and has detracted hugely from the world ’ s real wealth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of people who want to go into government to become rich and famous .
International Man : Fed chairman Powell has made countless remarks about the need for the US central bank to address climate change .
What is going on here ?
How can they address the so-called problem of climate change ?
Climate change has been going on since the Earth came together 4.5 billion years ago , and it will continue on its own path , primarily influenced by the sun and secondarily by things like volcanism , cosmic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ orbit , long after mankind has gone .
But destroying the economy by printing up more money certainly isn ’ t an answer to climate change .
However , I ’ m sure that what ’ s on Powell ’ s mind is making money easier to get for things like windmills and solar panels .
This is more state direction of investment .
It was a disaster for the USSR and every other socialist and state-directed economy and will be for us as well .
You ’ ll notice that the Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indulge in this kind of politically correct investing .
It ’ s a major reason why they ’ re on the way up , and we ’ re on the way down .
Janet and Jerome ’ s excellent adventure in climate engineering won ’ t end well .
International Man : With climate change and racial inequality , the Fed is creating all sorts of new ridiculous pretexts to justify whatever it wants to do .
It would be comical if the consequences weren ’ t so destructive .
What do you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At this point , the Federal Reserve , which most Americans barely even know exists , has become extremely important to everybody .
It ’ s now the main source of government income—greater even than the income tax—and this is likely to continue .
Agencies like the Fed grow when they have unlimited funding .
But it ’ s more than just mission creep at this point .
We saw mission creep during the Vietnam war and all other wars .
Now the Fed has been enlisted to fight the war on poverty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global warming .
The problem is that war is the health of the State—but a catastrophe for society .
The Fed started out as essentially a clearinghouse for banks ; it was instructed to maintain the value of the currency .
It has totally failed at that mission since its creation .
The US dollar was stable from 1789 up until 1913 when the Fed was instituted .
Since then , the dollar lost has about 97 % of its value , and the degeneration is radically accelerating .
Now the Fed is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and gender equality , and sunny days in addition .
The next abomination will be Fed Coin , a digital dollar , which will eliminate all privacy from financial transactions .
I don ’ t think anything can turn the situation around at this point .
The only thing you can do is become as wealthy as possible to insulate yourself .
The next step will be something resembling World War III , probably with China .
The US will turn into a police state , which in many ways , it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s going to be much more serious this time around .
Editor ’ s Note : Economically , politically , and socially , the United States seems to be headed down a path that ’ s not only inconsistent with the founding principles of the country , but accelerating quickly toward boundless decay .
In the years ahead , there will likely be much less stability of any kind .
That ’ s exactly why New York Times bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent new report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Predictions for the Raging 2020s .
Click here to download the free PDF now .

via internationalman:
International Man: Recently, the calls for the Fed to add a third mandate to address racial and economic inequality have grown louder.
Will we see a redistribution of wealth soon?
Doug Casey: It seems the movement towards black “reparations” is building momentum. These things always start small, testing the water, then grow when nobody either laughs at them for being stupid or decries them as evil. Most Americans are now too intimidated and confused to do that, however.
It’s similar to MMT. A year ago, the notion of Modern Monetary Theory was too outrageous a notion for a sensible person to bother considering; now, it’s practically public policy.
And, incidentally, when I say “black,” I don’t capitalize the word, as very recent politically correct fashion dictates. Capitalizing it just emphasizes and accentuates racial differences—as do most “woke” practices.
It’s another sign of the mass insanity that’s sweeping the world. Like almost everybody wearing masks when walking down the street, or even bicycling in the countryside. Not to mention locking down the whole country, practically the entire world, like a prison. It’s quite ironic to me. In the past, I’ve often joked that the Earth was a prison planet. Now it’s no joke.
Anyway, the idea of reparations is even more insane, but it’s taking off. It’s the destructive, racist idea of affirmative action on steroids.
It’s one genuinely crazy thing after another, like NASDAQ requiring listed companies to have at least two board members of so-called minority groups, including one non-white person and one with a sexual aberration.
Movies are expected to have the same kind of composition now. You see it to a large degree in commercials on TV. When I watch the boob-tube, I feel like I’m the only straight white male left in the US.
The discrimination against Asians is equally criminal, especially when it comes to getting into college. If you’re a smart and hard-working Asian, you now have to be even smarter and harder working to compete.
These PC fools are making accidents of birth into defining features of existence. The only good thing about the trend is that these people may be overreaching and will self-destruct. Hopefully, that will happen before they destroy society itself.
International Man: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spoken in length about the Fed’s interest to address economic inequality.
Ironically, the one institution that is single-handedly responsible for destructive monetary policies and money printing of epic proportions plans to do more of the same to “solve” the very problem they created.
What are your thoughts on this?
Doug Casey: The Fed is one of the main creators of inequality. The Establishment, the Deep State types, and the other cronies who hang around the government are closest to the fire hydrant of money spewing from the Fed. They get their fill of it before any trickles down to the “little people.”
The solution to the problem is to abolish the Fed. But it’s so entrenched and so central to the corrupt system, that’s impossible. At least short of a monetary collapse—although a monetary collapse is in the cards. But, at a minimum, the Fed shouldn’t try to act as a social engineer.
It certainly shouldn’t give money to blacks just because they’re black in the form of reparations or for any other reason. The notion is criminally stupid. All exchange must be mutual and free. If it’s not, it breeds resentment for both the giver and the receiver.
Free stuff, like welfare and free government housing, has already destroyed black families and black individuals. Places like Cabrini-Green and Pruitt-Igoe are monuments to government planning. If the Fed gets involved in passing out more free money, it’s only going to cement the average black more solidly to the bottom of society and create more race antagonism.
Well-positioned blacks like Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Maxine Waters, and hundreds of others who are getting rich by virtue of being black are all for it, of course. There’s big money in disguising race-baiting as virtue signaling.
International Man: Recently, Joe Biden announced that he would nominate former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen for US Treasury Secretary. In her first remarks, Yellen spoke about her plans to address racial disparities and inequality.
Is there a trend developing here where racial and economic inequality has become the justification for dangerous monetary policies?
Doug Casey: Race has become a justification for practically everything today. Deep State types in general, and the Democrats in particular, emphasize race and gender differences, which does nothing but aggravate the situation.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This nomination is an excellent deal for Yellen, who’s moved from being a nothing nobody academic to Fed Chair, and now Treasury Secretary. By the time she finishes her term in office, she’ll be a centimillionaire—the usual drill, six-figure speeches, seven-figure book contracts, fat directors fees, consulting fees, and insider investment deals. She’ll do well for someone who has zero business experience and has detracted hugely from the world’s real wealth.
She’s a model for the kind of people who want to go into government to become rich and famous.
International Man: Fed chairman Powell has made countless remarks about the need for the US central bank to address climate change.
What is going on here?
Doug Casey: It’s a good question.
How can they address the so-called problem of climate change? Climate change has been going on since the Earth came together 4.5 billion years ago, and it will continue on its own path, primarily influenced by the sun and secondarily by things like volcanism, cosmic rays, and peculiarities of the planets orbit, long after mankind has gone.
But destroying the economy by printing up more money certainly isn’t an answer to climate change. However, I’m sure that what’s on Powell’s mind is making money easier to get for things like windmills and solar panels. This is more state direction of investment. It was a disaster for the USSR and every other socialist and state-directed economy and will be for us as well.
You’ll notice that the Chinese and other Asian economies don’t indulge in this kind of politically correct investing. It’s a major reason why they’re on the way up, and we’re on the way down.
Janet and Jerome’s excellent adventure in climate engineering won’t end well.
International Man: With climate change and racial inequality, the Fed is creating all sorts of new ridiculous pretexts to justify whatever it wants to do. It would be comical if the consequences weren’t so destructive. What do you think comes next?
Doug Casey: At this point, the Federal Reserve, which most Americans barely even know exists, has become extremely important to everybody.
It’s now the main source of government income—greater even than the income tax—and this is likely to continue. Agencies like the Fed grow when they have unlimited funding. But it’s more than just mission creep at this point.
We saw mission creep during the Vietnam war and all other wars. Now the Fed has been enlisted to fight the war on poverty, the war on racism, and global warming. The problem is that war is the health of the State—but a catastrophe for society.
The Fed started out as essentially a clearinghouse for banks; it was instructed to maintain the value of the currency. It has totally failed at that mission since its creation. The US dollar was stable from 1789 up until 1913 when the Fed was instituted. Since then, the dollar lost has about 97% of its value, and the degeneration is radically accelerating.
Now the Fed is supposed to ensure full employment, racial and gender equality, and sunny days in addition. The next abomination will be Fed Coin, a digital dollar, which will eliminate all privacy from financial transactions.
I don’t think anything can turn the situation around at this point. The only thing you can do is become as wealthy as possible to insulate yourself.
The next step will be something resembling World War III, probably with China. The US will turn into a police state, which in many ways, it was during World Wars I and II.
It’s going to be much more serious this time around.
Editor’s Note: Economically, politically, and socially, the United States seems to be headed down a path that’s not only inconsistent with the founding principles of the country, but accelerating quickly toward boundless decay.
In the years ahead, there will likely be much less stability of any kind.
That’s exactly why New York Times bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent new report titled Doug Casey’s Top 7 Predictions for the Raging 2020s.
Click here to download the free PDF now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Instituting Global Governance Through A Pre-Planned Event – Interview on Rethinking the Dollar

Today I appeared on Rethinking the Dollar to discuss how the world is now captured by the roll-out of global @ @ @ @ @ event .
Check out the interview here : Hope you will enjoy the talk Mike @ @ @ @ @ you soon !

By : JanssenReportHost
Today I appeared on Rethinking the Dollar to discuss how the world is now captured by the roll-out of global governance system through a pre-planned event.
Check out the interview here:
Hope you will enjoy the talk Mike and I had.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
See you soon!
Cheers,
Marco Janssen


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-25--Bill Gates says lockdowns could continue into 2022 and believes restaurants will be closed for the n

Bill Gates says lockdowns could continue into 2022 and believes restaurants will be closed for the next six months

• Bill Gates offered his predictions during an interview with CNN on Sunday • It came as the US set new records for new cases , hospitalizations and deaths over a seven-day period • ‘ Sadly the next four to six months could be the worst of the epidemic , ’ Gates said • He went on to signal support for coronavirus-related business restrictions • ‘ Bars and restaurants in most of the country will be closed as we go into this wave , and I think sadly that ’ s appropriate , ’ he said • Gates said he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal ’ by summertime after a vaccine is rolled out • He also expressed optimism about Joe Biden ’ s incoming administration Bill Gates says he expects that coronavirus-related lockdowns could drag on into 2022 with restaurants closing their doors for the next six months .
The billionaire Microsoft founder offered his predictions during an interview with CNN ‘ s Jake Tapper on Sunday as the US set new records for new cases , hospitalizations and deaths over a seven-day period .
Asked how bad he thinks the COVID-19 crisis will get in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ widely available , Gates said : ‘ Well , sadly , the next four to six months could be the worst of the epidemic .
‘ Forecast shows over 200,000 additional deaths .
If we would follow the rules in terms of wearing masks and not mixing , we could avoid a large percentage of those deaths .
So in the near term , it ’ s bad news.
’ He went on to signal his support for drastic restrictions – including California Governor Gavin Newsom ’ s latest stay-at-home order affecting more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ Well certainly mask-wearing has essentially no downsides , ’ Gates said .
‘ Bars and restaurants in most of the country will be closed as we go into this wave , and I think sadly that ’ s appropriate.
’ ‘ You don ’ t want somebody you love to be the last to die of coronavirus , ’ he added .

Bill Gates offered his predictions during an interview with CNN on Sunday
It came as the US set new records for new cases, hospitalizations and deaths over a seven-day period
‘Sadly the next four to six months could be the worst of the epidemic,’ Gates said
He went on to signal support for coronavirus-related business restrictions
‘Bars and restaurants in most of the country will be closed as we go into this wave, and I think sadly that’s appropriate,’ he said
Gates said he thinks the US will become more ‘normal’ by summertime after a vaccine is rolled out
He also expressed optimism about Joe Biden’s incoming administration
Bill Gates says he expects that coronavirus-related lockdowns could drag on into 2022 with restaurants closing their doors for the next six months.
The billionaire Microsoft founder offered his predictions during an interview with CNN‘s Jake Tapper on Sunday as the US set new records for new cases, hospitalizations and deaths over a seven-day period.
Asked how bad he thinks the COVID-19 crisis will get in the next few months before vaccines become widely available, Gates said: ‘Well, sadly, the next four to six months could be the worst of the epidemic.
‘Forecast shows over 200,000 additional deaths. If we would follow the rules in terms of wearing masks and not mixing, we could avoid a large percentage of those deaths. So in the near term, it’s bad news.’
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
He went on to signal his support for drastic restrictions – including California Governor Gavin Newsom’s latest stay-at-home order affecting more than 75 percent of the state.
‘Well certainly mask-wearing has essentially no downsides,’ Gates said. ‘Bars and restaurants in most of the country will be closed as we go into this wave, and I think sadly that’s appropriate.’
‘You don’t want somebody you love to be the last to die of coronavirus,’ he added.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9050229/Bill-Gates-says-entering-worse-phase-COVID-pandemic-predicts-lockdowns-2022.html