investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Watch “DR. FAUCI BACKED WUHAN LAB RESEARCH? China studied bat coronavirus, but WHY is the media hidi

Watch “DR. FAUCI BACKED WUHAN LAB RESEARCH? China studied bat coronavirus, but WHY is the media hiding it?” on YouTube

A new report from Newsweek details exactly what scientists were studying at the infectious disease lab in Wuhan , China @ @ @ @ @ .
According to Newsweek , the National Institutes of Health gave over 7 million U.S. @ @ @ @ @ research initiative — reportedly supported by Dr. Fauci — that not only surveilled bat coronaviruses @ @ @ @ @ gain of function ” research to determine how easily those viruses could attach to human @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s a reason why hundreds of scientists argue AGAINST gain of function research @ @ @ @ @ one leak to significantly increase the risk of a human pandemic .
So while it @ @ @ @ @ lab may be entirely responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic the world currently faces , why @ @ @ @ @ to ignore the tough questions of China ?
Perhaps it all comes down to business @ @ @ @ @ business profits…

A new report from Newsweek details exactly what scientists were studying at the infectious disease lab in Wuhan, China when the coronavirus pandemic began. According to Newsweek, the National Institutes of Health gave over 7 million U.S. taxpayer dollars to fund a research initiative — reportedly supported by Dr. Fauci — that not only surveilled bat coronaviruses, but also used “gain of function” research to determine how easily those viruses could attach to human cells as well. But there’s a reason why hundreds of scientists argue AGAINST gain of function research: all it takes is one leak to significantly increase the risk of a human pandemic. So while it becomes abundantly clear the Wuhan lab may be entirely responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic the world currently faces, why does the mainstream media continue to ignore the tough questions of China? Perhaps it all comes down to business, money, and big business profits…
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Chris Martenson – Steering Towards a Cliff Edge… MSM has Blood on their Hands.

Chris Martenson is a futurist , economic researcher and holds a PhD in toxicology from Duke University .
Martenson weights @ @ @ @ @ the economy and the Covid 19 crisis and says , “ The mainstream media ( @ @ @ @ @ on their hands for failing to take a neutral position on this stuff , ” @ @ @ @ @ results for treatments like Hydroxychloroquine ( HCQ ) .
Instead , the MSM ignored HCQ @ @ @ @ @ to use , which was a total lie .
Martenson contends the MSM misinformed people @ @ @ @ @ ’ ” Martenson also says , “ People should tune your body up so your @ @ @ @ @ 19. .
.
.
You want your body to be as healthy as it can @ @ @ @ @ ” Martenson says the three things you need to take to help fight off Covid @ @ @ @ @ Zinc and Quercetin .
Martenson says the good news is Covid 19 is definitely going @ @ @ @ @ the end of the year .
”

Chris Martenson is a futurist, economic researcher and holds a PhD in toxicology from Duke University.
Martenson weights in on deep problems in the economy and the Covid 19 crisis and says, “The mainstream media (MSM) press has blood on their hands for failing to take a neutral position on this stuff,” such as the very positive results for treatments like Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ). Instead, the MSM ignored HCQ or said it was dangerous to use, which was a total lie. Martenson contends the MSM misinformed people, and ‘people died.’”
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Martenson also says, “People should tune your body up so your body can fight off Covid 19. . . . You want your body to be as healthy as it can be from an immunological standpoint.”
Martenson says the three things you need to take to help fight off Covid 19 are Vitamin D, Zinc and Quercetin. Martenson says the good news is Covid 19 is definitely going to “trend down by the end of the year.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Georgia Gov. Kemp says mask mandate will cause unemployment to skyrocket

( Natural News ) Georgia Gov .
Brian Kemp stated Friday that a mask mandate could cause unemployment in the state to rise .
Kemp , however , still admitted that wearing face masks had benefits when it came to fighting the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) .
“ This is not about masks , ” Kemp told reporters at the Georgia State Capitol building in downtown Atlanta .
“ We all agree it ’ s good to wear a mask , in the right situation .
This is about protecting the livelihoods of our citizens.
” To make his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to unemployment , Kemp pointed to California .
The latter , which made wearing face coverings anywhere outside the home mandatory in June , currently has an unemployment rate of 16.7 percent compared to Georgia ’ s own 7.6 percent unemployment rate .
He further highlighted how , in the town of Albany , Georgia , the residents fully embraced mask recommendations without the need for a mandate and were able to fight back against the coronavirus .
Albany , which was the epicenter of Georgia ’ s outbreak , was able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closely with the state government , all without needing to force people to wear masks .
“ They did what I am asking people to do now .
And that ’ s to encourage people to wear a mask , ” said Kemp .
Kemp further explained that many municipalities in Georgia are handling the coronavirus well even without resorting to a mask mandate .
Signing an order forcing people to wear masks , Kemp believes , will not be a popular decision , and will likely not be enforceable .
( Related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national mask mandate ; Surgeon General says order may lead to REBELLION . )
On July 15 , Kemp nullified the orders of at least 15 local governments that had adopted some kind of mask mandate in their respective jurisdictions .
Instead of a mask directive , Kemp has continued to encourage the voluntary wearing of masks .
He ’ s even told Georgia ’ s football fans that , if they wanted the upcoming college football season to continue , they should wear masks .
Before the nullifications were enacted , mask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia ’ s 10.6 million residents in some of the state ’ s most populated areas .
These included the capital of Atlanta , as well as major urban centers like Savannah , Rome and Augusta .
Even Kemp ’ s hometown of Athens-Clarke County had a mask order .
Along with the revocation , Kemp ’ s new order also explicitly bans local governments from mandating masks on public property in the future .
This effectively voids the requirements some local governments have enacted for entry into city and county buildings .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments from creating any new coronavirus restrictions beyond what the state has ordered .
In response to Kemp ’ s ban on mask mandates , Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said in a virtual press conference that the city ’ s mask policies will remain in place .
Bottoms believes that the city of Atlanta still has the power to place mask policies over buildings and properties that the city owns .
She also accused Kemp ’ s ban as being politically motivated because of how long the governor took to nullify local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ required their residents to wear masks over a week before Atlanta came around to doing so .
The mayor said that it wasn ’ t until Atlanta issued their own directives that Kemp “ suddenly ” took a strong position against mask mandates .
This was around the time that President Donald Trump visited Georgia and was photographed with Kemp while not wearing a mask .
In response , Kemp filed a lawsuit Thursday against Bottoms and the Atlanta City Council , arguing that she had exceeded her authority by going against a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as mayor of Georgia ’ s capital , Bottoms has no legal authority to either modify , change or ignore an executive order from the governor of her state .
Kemp reiterated that he believes masks are beneficial but said that people should be encouraged to wear them rather than forced .
In a statement , Bottoms responded to the lawsuit by saying that taxpayer money would be better spent by expanding the state ’ s coronavirus testing and contact tracing efforts .
“ If being sued by the State is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then we will see them in court , ” her statement said .
At least a dozen other mayors have said that they will be keeping their mask mandates in place , including Savannah Mayor Van Johnson who criticized Kemp during a news conference on Thursday .
“ We will continue to follow the science , ” said Johnson .
“ We will continue to provide masks , for free .
We will continue to wear them .
We will continue to mandate them .
And we will continue to require them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not gone forward with any legal action against the other mayors defying his ban on mask mandates .
As of Friday , Atlanta has 33,838 confirmed cases of COVID-19 – including Bottoms herself – and 782 deaths .
This represents over 25 percent of all coronavirus cases in Georgia .
Learn about how the coronavirus is continuing to spread in America at Pandemic.news .

by: Arsenio Toledo
(Natural News) Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp stated Friday that a mask mandate could cause unemployment in the state to rise. Kemp, however, still admitted that wearing face masks had benefits when it came to fighting the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19).
“This is not about masks,” Kemp told reporters at the Georgia State Capitol building in downtown Atlanta. “We all agree it’s good to wear a mask, in the right situation. This is about protecting the livelihoods of our citizens.”
Georgia held back the coronavirus without mask mandates
To make his case that the mask mandate is tied to unemployment, Kemp pointed to California. The latter, which made wearing face coverings anywhere outside the home mandatory in June, currently has an unemployment rate of 16.7 percent compared to Georgia’s own 7.6 percent unemployment rate.
He further highlighted how, in the town of Albany, Georgia, the residents fully embraced mask recommendations without the need for a mandate and were able to fight back against the coronavirus. Albany, which was the epicenter of Georgia’s outbreak, was able to effectively deal with the coronavirus by working closely with the state government, all without needing to force people to wear masks.
“They did what I am asking people to do now. And that’s to encourage people to wear a mask,” said Kemp.
Kemp further explained that many municipalities in Georgia are handling the coronavirus well even without resorting to a mask mandate. Signing an order forcing people to wear masks, Kemp believes, will not be a popular decision, and will likely not be enforceable. (Related: Harvard doctor wants U.S. to enforce national mask mandate; Surgeon General says order may lead to REBELLION.)
Kemp overrides mask orders and bans any future mask mandates
On July 15, Kemp nullified the orders of at least 15 local governments that had adopted some kind of mask mandate in their respective jurisdictions. Instead of a mask directive, Kemp has continued to encourage the voluntary wearing of masks. He’s even told Georgia’s football fans that, if they wanted the upcoming college football season to continue, they should wear masks.
Before the nullifications were enacted, mask orders were affecting some 1.4 million of Georgia’s 10.6 million residents in some of the state’s most populated areas. These included the capital of Atlanta, as well as major urban centers like Savannah, Rome and Augusta. Even Kemp’s hometown of Athens-Clarke County had a mask order.
Along with the revocation, Kemp’s new order also explicitly bans local governments from mandating masks on public property in the future. This effectively voids the requirements some local governments have enacted for entry into city and county buildings.
Kemp’s ban also prevents local governments from creating any new coronavirus restrictions beyond what the state has ordered.
Mask mandates band draws ire of Atlanta mayor
In response to Kemp’s ban on mask mandates, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said in a virtual press conference that the city’s mask policies will remain in place.
Bottoms believes that the city of Atlanta still has the power to place mask policies over buildings and properties that the city owns. She also accused Kemp’s ban as being politically motivated because of how long the governor took to nullify local mask mandates – both Savannah and Athens required their residents to wear masks over a week before Atlanta came around to doing so.
The mayor said that it wasn’t until Atlanta issued their own directives that Kemp “suddenly” took a strong position against mask mandates. This was around the time that President Donald Trump visited Georgia and was photographed with Kemp while not wearing a mask.
In response, Kemp filed a lawsuit Thursday against Bottoms and the Atlanta City Council, arguing that she had exceeded her authority by going against a statewide order.
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The lawsuit states that, as mayor of Georgia’s capital, Bottoms has no legal authority to either modify, change or ignore an executive order from the governor of her state. Kemp reiterated that he believes masks are beneficial but said that people should be encouraged to wear them rather than forced.
In a statement, Bottoms responded to the lawsuit by saying that taxpayer money would be better spent by expanding the state’s coronavirus testing and contact tracing efforts.
“If being sued by the State is what it takes to save lives in Atlanta, then we will see them in court,” her statement said.
At least a dozen other mayors have said that they will be keeping their mask mandates in place, including Savannah Mayor Van Johnson who criticized Kemp during a news conference on Thursday.
“We will continue to follow the science,” said Johnson. “We will continue to provide masks, for free. We will continue to wear them. We will continue to mandate them. And we will continue to require them in our city.”
Kemp has still not gone forward with any legal action against the other mayors defying his ban on mask mandates.
As of Friday, Atlanta has 33,838 confirmed cases of COVID-19 – including Bottoms herself – and 782 deaths. This represents over 25 percent of all coronavirus cases in Georgia.
Learn about how the coronavirus is continuing to spread in America at Pandemic.news.
Sources include:
TheEpochTimes.com
Edition.CNN.com
Fox28Media.com
APNews.com
ABCNews.go.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--The flash-point of the war to come? Chinese vs Australians in the Pacific

“ The risk of Chinese military action against Australia has increased quite significantly according to the United States Studies Centre ’ s Dr John Lee .
It comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently announced a massive new defence spending package which will seek to purchase updated military weaponry such as hyper-sonic missiles , long range missiles , and unmanned vehicles .
Dr Lee told Sky News host Sharri Markson , if Australia had to acquire new capabilities to counter China ’ s People ’ s Liberation Army , then “ those would be it ” .
He said Australia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likelihood of military action from China as it has become a realistic possibility .
“ Xi Jinping seems to be in the mind set now of escalation , he doesn ’ t seem to have any other option .
He doesn ’ t seem to be able to de-escalate for domestic political reasons ” .
“ So those sorts of factors will just further increase the risk of some kind of conflict .
“ China has never really confronted this push back by multiple nations at the same time before .
When the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it coerces ; this is precisely what it ’ s doing with nations .
”

Chinese military attacks against Australia is a ‘realistic possibility’
“The risk of Chinese military action against Australia has increased quite significantly according to the United States Studies Centre’s Dr John Lee.
It comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently announced a massive new defence spending package which will seek to purchase updated military weaponry such as hyper-sonic missiles, long range missiles, and unmanned vehicles.
Dr Lee told Sky News host Sharri Markson, if Australia had to acquire new capabilities to counter China’s People’s Liberation Army, then “those would be it”.
He said Australia does need to think carefully about the likelihood of military action from China as it has become a realistic possibility.
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“Xi Jinping seems to be in the mind set now of escalation, he doesn’t seem to have any other option. He doesn’t seem to be able to de-escalate for domestic political reasons”.
“So those sorts of factors will just further increase the risk of some kind of conflict.
“China has never really confronted this push back by multiple nations at the same time before. When the Communist Party faces disagreement, it intimidates and it coerces; this is precisely what it’s doing with nations.”
Joe


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Venezuelan Immigrants Dire Warning About What’s Happening In America [VID]

“ The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.
” @ @ @ @ @ s been posted but it needs reposted by people everyday or one of the threads @ @ @ @ @ other threads I saw didn ’ t embed the video…

“The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.”
-George Orwell
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I see that it’s been posted but it needs reposted by people everyday or one of the threads bumped everyday. Also the other threads I saw didn’t embed the video…
Sn7


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Black Leaders Call on NYPD to Bring Back Anti-Crime Unit as Shootings Spike

Leaders in the black community are calling on the New York Police Department to bring back the plainclothes Anti-Crime Unit @ @ @ @ @ as shootings and murders spike across the city .
About 600 undercover officers from the @ @ @ @ @ transferred to other assignments including detective work and policing neighborhoods , NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea @ @ @ @ @ The anti-crime unit , which was responsible for getting guns off the streets , had @ @ @ @ @ in law enforcement in minority communities .

Leaders in the black community are calling on the New York Police Department to bring back the plainclothes Anti-Crime Unit that was eliminated last month as shootings and murders spike across the city.
About 600 undercover officers from the unit were set to be transferred to other assignments including detective work and policing neighborhoods, NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea said a month ago. The anti-crime unit, which was responsible for getting guns off the streets, had been criticized as stoking distrust in law enforcement in minority communities.
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www.nationalreview.com/news/black-leaders-call-on-nypd-to-bring-back-anti-crime-unit-as-shootings-spike/?fbclid=IwAR1LJYyhTdnqYJDwPMbp8GS1L1g6it-oHP2OfU3p_9miLq3swRodUbuLDeM


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Protest organizer claims their mission is the “abolition of the United States as we know it”

Calling for the `` abolition of the United States '' is not protected speech .
It is sedition .
These @ @ @ @ @ .

Calling for the "abolition of the United States" is not protected speech. It is sedition. These people ought to be arrested.
— Randy (@RandyAYoung) July 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Back-of-the-envelope DD on why Berkshire should be priced at least 20 – 30% higher

Disclaimer : I ’ m kind of retarded and am down half a bottle of Jack .
Make your own investment decisions Alright boys and girls , I ’ m going to try to keep this ( relatively ) brief , at least compared to some of the other DD on here .
I ’ m not going to write about the history of the company because I ’ m assuming that anyone with a modicum of investment sense is already plenty familiar with Berkshire Hathaway .
If you ’ ve never heard of this company , or are a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – this is not for you .
Ok , so this write-up started with a thought I had while in the shower : If you were to breakdown Berkshire into each of its income-generating components , what would be the fair market value ?
As a second disclaimer , I think there was another post on here a week or two ago , but I don ’ t have it saved and thus haven ’ t linked it .
To do this , I copied BRK ’ s quarterly statement of operations from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TTM format ( Q1-20 + YE-19 – Q1-19 ) .
I then grouped it by operating segment to derive operating net income applicable to each business segment .
If you ’ re unfamiliar with Berkshire – the company , not daddy Buffett – their two main operating segments are Insurance ( and other , $ 200bn TTM revenue ) and Railroad , Utilities , and Energy ( $ 41bn TTM revenue ) .
When grouped by operating segment , we can see that Insurance netted ~ $ 18bn in net income over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 8bn .
I didn ’ t include non-operating items like derivative contract gains ( losses ) or income tax expense , because honestly I don ’ t give a fuck about those .
If you ’ re really concerned , just shave like 10 % off the valuation .
Go crazy .
Now , I don ’ t know know shit about insurance or railroads .
But I do know a little thing about multiples ( emphasis on little ; like I said , I ’ m kind of retarded ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial model with lots of terminal values and shit , I compared the net earnings of each operating line to the average P/E ratios of other publicly traded companies operating in those industries to derive an estimated fair market value for each component ( See Comps , 10-year data downloaded from StockRow ) .
As you can see in the attached image , multiplying BRK Insurance by the average TTM insurance industry P/E ratio ( 8.69 ) yields an estimated FMV of ~ $ 157bn .
Similarly , adjusting net earnings by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FMV of ~ $ 189bn ( ignore the 10-year figures , we ’ ll get to that later ) .
In aggregate , this means that the fair value of BRK ’ s operating segments based on TTM data is approximately $ 347bn , or 75 % of their current market cap .
The remainder , I believe can be attributed to BRK ’ s investment portfolio .
Something that caught my eye , and sparked the idea for this DD , was this .
Notice the divergence in each company ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I wouldn ’ t expect BRK to be perfectly correlated to AAPL , but I would expect their beta to be at least somewhat similar considering BRK ’ s AAPL holdings alone are worth 20 % of it ’ s own market cap .
But I digress .
In this back-of-the-envelope model , I attribute the remainder of BRK ’ s FMV to its investment portfolio .
To estimate the investment portfolio ’ s FMV , I created a little reconciliation ( which you can view here ) to recalculate current FMV @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in BRK ’ s most recent 13-F filing .
Investment values as of the report date are recalculated , but these are just for comparison .
I used May 1st ( the date the report was filed with the SEC ) as the base period to capture value at issuance , but this is extremely optimistic .
The investments were more than likely valued in early-mid March and thus are likely to be severely understated on the final report .
Recomputing the current FMV of investments ( shares x closing price as of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largest holdings – AAPL , AXP , BAC , KO , WFC , and KHC – gives us coverage of approximately 76 % of BRK ’ s total investment portfolio .
For the remaining 24 % , I just relied on the numbers reported on their Form 13-F since I ’ m a lazy POS and all about that copy/paste life .
You can view them here .
Ok , so now we have FMV estimates for BRK ’ s operating segments and investment portfolio – now it ’ s time to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a warning , I ’ m ignoring the conversion of market cap for BRK-A & BRK-B shareholders .
Honestly I just don ’ t give enough of a shit to recalculate it .
% upside numbers are based on market cap though , not share price , so it is captured ) .
• Using TTM multiples for the insurance and railroad segments gives us a FMV for BRK-B of ~ $ 238 – a 26.12 % upside .
But should we really be using TTM multiples ?
I mean , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already depressed share prices of our industry comps .
What if this return to ( relative ) normalcy , and we see industry multiples revert back to their 10-year mean ?
• Using multiples equal to the 10-year average for each of our comparable industries , we get a FMV for BRK-B of ~ $ 266.26 – 40.65 % upside .
• Just for fun , I also calculated an estimated FMV using share prices for investments as of May 1 ( the report date ) .
This gave me an estimated share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 % upside .
Tldr/Conclusion ; Berkshire should be worth between $ 230 – $ 260 without even considering factors beyond operations or the investment portfolio .
Anything below $ 210 is severely under-priced IMO .
Berkshire was trading well above a $ 500bn market cap before the pandemic , and I doubt their core operations were impacted nearly enough to warrant the lower valuation .
Hell , their operating segments are under-priced compared to peers using current multiples .
The only justifiable reason I could see for them having a lower valuation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more “ risky ” derivative contracts or buys any more shitty O & G companies , but frankly I don ’ t ( or at least hope it won ’ t ) see that happening .
Edit : In my drunken stupor I accidentally mis-keyed a couple numbers .
Projected share price is actually higher now .

by CPAyeLmao
Disclaimer: I’m kind of retarded and am down half a bottle of Jack. Make your own investment decisions
Alright boys and girls, I’m going to try to keep this (relatively) brief, at least compared to some of the other DD on here. I’m not going to write about the history of the company because I’m assuming that anyone with a modicum of investment sense is already plenty familiar with Berkshire Hathaway. If you’ve never heard of this company, or are a MrBeast subscriber, please stop reading now – this is not for you.
Ok, so this write-up started with a thought I had while in the shower: If you were to breakdown Berkshire into each of its income-generating components, what would be the fair market value? As a second disclaimer, I think there was another post on here a week or two ago, but I don’t have it saved and thus haven’t linked it.
To do this, I copied BRK’s quarterly statement of operations from their latest 10-Q and converted it into TTM format (Q1-20 + YE-19 – Q1-19). I then grouped it by operating segment to derive operating net income applicable to each business segment. If you’re unfamiliar with Berkshire – the company, not daddy Buffett – their two main operating segments are Insurance (and other, $200bn TTM revenue) and Railroad, Utilities, and Energy ($41bn TTM revenue). When grouped by operating segment, we can see that Insurance netted ~$18bn in net income over the TTM, and railroad activities netted ~$8bn. I didn’t include non-operating items like derivative contract gains(losses) or income tax expense, because honestly I don’t give a fuck about those. If you’re really concerned, just shave like 10% off the valuation. Go crazy.
Now, I don’t know know shit about insurance or railroads. But I do know a little thing about multiples (emphasis on little; like I said, I’m kind of retarded). So rather than creating a super intricate financial model with lots of terminal values and shit, I compared the net earnings of each operating line to the average P/E ratios of other publicly traded companies operating in those industries to derive an estimated fair market value for each component (See Comps, 10-year data downloaded from StockRow).
As you can see in the attached image, multiplying BRK Insurance by the average TTM insurance industry P/E ratio (8.69) yields an estimated FMV of ~$157bn. Similarly, adjusting net earnings by the average TTM P/E for railroads yields a FMV of ~$189bn (ignore the 10-year figures, we’ll get to that later). In aggregate, this means that the fair value of BRK’s operating segments based on TTM data is approximately $347bn, or 75% of their current market cap.
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The remainder, I believe can be attributed to BRK’s investment portfolio. Something that caught my eye, and sparked the idea for this DD, was this. Notice the divergence in each company’s share price? Me too. Granted, I wouldn’t expect BRK to be perfectly correlated to AAPL, but I would expect their beta to be at least somewhat similar considering BRK’s AAPL holdings alone are worth 20% of it’s own market cap. But I digress.
In this back-of-the-envelope model, I attribute the remainder of BRK’s FMV to its investment portfolio. To estimate the investment portfolio’s FMV, I created a little reconciliation (which you can view here) to recalculate current FMV values of investments based on share-counts disclosed in BRK’s most recent 13-F filing. Investment values as of the report date are recalculated, but these are just for comparison. I used May 1st (the date the report was filed with the SEC) as the base period to capture value at issuance, but this is extremely optimistic. The investments were more than likely valued in early-mid March and thus are likely to be severely understated on the final report.
Recomputing the current FMV of investments (shares x closing price as of today) for BRK’s 6 largest holdings – AAPL, AXP, BAC, KO, WFC, and KHC – gives us coverage of approximately 76% of BRK’s total investment portfolio. For the remaining 24%, I just relied on the numbers reported on their Form 13-F since I’m a lazy POS and all about that copy/paste life. You can view them here.
Ok, so now we have FMV estimates for BRK’s operating segments and investment portfolio – now it’s time to see how much the company is worth (as a warning, I’m ignoring the conversion of market cap for BRK-A & BRK-B shareholders. Honestly I just don’t give enough of a shit to recalculate it. % upside numbers are based on market cap though, not share price, so it is captured).
Using TTM multiples for the insurance and railroad segments gives us a FMV for BRK-B of ~$238 – a 26.12% upside . But should we really be using TTM multiples? I mean, by doing so we’re capturing the already depressed share prices of our industry comps. What if this return to (relative) normalcy, and we see industry multiples revert back to their 10-year mean?
. But should we really be using TTM multiples? I mean, by doing so we’re capturing the already depressed share prices of our industry comps. What if this return to (relative) normalcy, and we see industry multiples revert back to their 10-year mean? Using multiples equal to the 10-year average for each of our comparable industries, we get a FMV for BRK-B of ~$266.26 – 40.65% upside.
Just for fun, I also calculated an estimated FMV using share prices for investments as of May 1 (the report date). This gave me an estimated share price of ~$217 – a 20% upside.
Tldr/Conclusion; Berkshire should be worth between $230 – $260 without even considering factors beyond operations or the investment portfolio. Anything below $210 is severely under-priced IMO. Berkshire was trading well above a $500bn market cap before the pandemic, and I doubt their core operations were impacted nearly enough to warrant the lower valuation. Hell, their operating segments are under-priced compared to peers using current multiples. The only justifiable reason I could see for them having a lower valuation would be if Warren enters into any more “risky” derivative contracts or buys any more shitty O&G companies, but frankly I don’t (or at least hope it won’t) see that happening.
Tldr;Tldr; BRK-B $250 01/21/22 LEAPs are looking mighty cheap.
Edit: In my drunken stupor I accidentally mis-keyed a couple numbers. Projected share price is actually higher now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Wall Street is firmly in wonderland

Wall Street is firmly in wonderland

LONDON ( Reuters Breakingviews ) – Alice was tired of studying for the CFA exams , the figures in the @ @ @ @ @ laid her head on the desk… Her first day at Tweedle Asset Management was going @ @ @ @ @ .
She was escorted around the offices by a young staffer named Otto .
Their @ @ @ @ @ bond team .
Fixed income was Alice ’ s keenest interest .
“ Do you @ @ @ @ @ ” she eagerly asked .
Everyone laughed .
“ Are you dreaming ?
” the @ @ @ @ @ “ The coupon is subtracted from the principal , not paid out .
If it @ @ @ @ @ , you should take out a Danish mortgage , they pay very well .
Or @ @ @ @ @ But why own a bond , if it doesn ’ t pay interest ?
” @ @ @ @ @ d read her Homer and Sylla assiduously .

www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-stocks-breakingviews/breakingviews-chancellor-wall-street-is-firmly-in-wonderland-idUSKBN24A219
LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) – Alice was tired of studying for the CFA exams, the figures in the spreadsheet were blurry, she laid her head on the desk…
Her first day at Tweedle Asset Management was going to be a busy one. She was escorted around the offices by a young staffer named Otto. Their first visit was to the bond team. Fixed income was Alice’s keenest interest.
“Do you hold bonds for income?” she eagerly asked. Everyone laughed. “Are you dreaming?” the desk head replied rudely. “The coupon is subtracted from the principal, not paid out. If it’s income you want, you should take out a Danish mortgage, they pay very well. Or sell short Swissies.”
“But why own a bond, if it doesn’t pay interest?” replied Alice, who’d read her Homer and Sylla assiduously.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-19--Jobs Recovery Shows Signs of Slowing as Coronavirus Surges

Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 63,384 new cases of coronavirus and 848 new deaths, records were broken in 4 states t.co/Qs4encun9f pic.twitter.com/h5oPZsNM5V
A new study of nearly 65,000 people in South Korea found that children between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the coronavirus just as much as adults, suggesting that school reopenings will trigger more outbreaks t.co/5CFGOe6lmd
— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-20--Cops Track Fast Food Order To Bust Party Violating Lockdown

Are you ready for this week ’ s absurdity ?
Here ’ s our roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty , risks to your prosperity… and on occasion , inspiring poetic justice .
Jail time in Colorado town for not wearing a mask Englewood , Colorado , a major suburb of Denver , has made it a crime to leave your home without wearing a mask .
And ‘ crime ’ means crime .
They ’ re not talking about a fine or slap on the wrist .
Anyone over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at all times , anywhere in public or in private businesses .
And the punishment for breaking the law is up to a year in jail .
By comparison , Colorado sentencing guidelines provide similar penalties for felonies like illegal weapons possession , forgery , theft , and failing to register as a sex offender .
For authoritarians , any silly little law they can think of comes with a year in prison .
It ’ s like an automatic stamp , new law , BOOM– year in prison .
Just your weekly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trivial that the government won ’ t throw you in a cage over .
Click here to read the full story .
Leaving tire marks on the road is now a hate crime Canadian police are searching for a suspect in a Ford Mustang accused of a “ gesture of hate.
” The car peeled out and left tire marks on a crosswalk .
But this wasn ’ t just any crosswalk .
This was a gay pride rainbow crosswalk .
So now police are asking for information to locate the perp of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ motivated by hate ?
Who knows !
?
Maybe the guy just peeled out .
Maybe it was a teenager who saw a freshly painted target on the street , and wanted to tarnish it .
Immature ?
Sure .
A gesture of hate ?
We don ’ t know .
The point is , the media and public now have this knee-jerk reaction to anything that involves a special victim group .
It MUST be motivated by HATE !
There can be no other explanation .
Click here to read the full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kids missing school next semester The UK will force students back to school in the fall .
And if parents are uncomfortable with that , too bad .
The Education Secretary said parents will be fined for keeping their children home from school .
Parents will not be allowed to take their own child ’ s health and safety into account and make the decision for themselves .
The state will decide .
It is legal , however , to entirely homeschool your child in the UK , just like in the states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feels more important every day .
Click here to read the full story .
Ambulance workers eating at a KFC in Australia somehow caught wind of a large order coming in to the fast food establishment .
So naturally , instead of minding their own business , they called the police .
That ’ s what you do in the time of Covid– snitch on your neighbors .
Police followed the delivery driver to the home that ordered the large amount of fried chicken .
And sure enough , some horrible criminals were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t worry , the Australian police issued a total of A $ 26,000 ( over $ 18,000 US ) worth of fines to the partiers .
That will teach them to cower in fear at home instead of living their lives .
Covid-19 is all the excuse authorities need to go full-on police state .
Click here to read the full story .
It pointed out that the fear of saying the wrong thing at work or online is stifling free speech , killing open discussion , and chilling the exchange of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some right-wing group .
The letter was signed by the likes of Noam Chomsky , Margaret Atwood , and Gloria Steinem– all famous leftists .
A liberal writer from Vox , Matt Yglasias , assumed he was in good company when he also signed the letter .
But the letter was also signed by “ anti-trans ” people like the feminist author of Harry Potter , JK Rowling .
So a trans person , Emily VanDerWerff , who also works for Vox decided to report Matt for signing the letter .
Emily also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police , but told her 70K followers that she totally wasn ’ t trying to get Matt in trouble .
Naturally it didn ’ t take long for the Twitter Inquisition to persecute Matt for his ‘ hate speech ’ .
He signed a letter that was also signed by an anti-trans person… which makes Matt anti-trans by association .
Since he was now the victim of the cancel-culture mob-attack , Matt apologized and denounced his signature on the letter .
He said he didn ’ t realize he was co-signing with anti-trans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t realize I was supporting free speech alongside some people who don ’ t think the exact same way as me !
Click here to read the full story .
On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years .
That ’ s why we published a new , 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here .

by Simon Black of Sovereign Man
Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.
Jail time in Colorado town for not wearing a mask
Englewood, Colorado, a major suburb of Denver, has made it a crime to leave your home without wearing a mask.
And ‘crime’ means crime. They’re not talking about a fine or slap on the wrist.
Anyone over six years old must wear a mask at all times, anywhere in public or in private businesses. And the punishment for breaking the law is up to a year in jail.
By comparison, Colorado sentencing guidelines provide similar penalties for felonies like illegal weapons possession, forgery, theft, and failing to register as a sex offender.
For authoritarians, any silly little law they can think of comes with a year in prison.
It’s like an automatic stamp, new law, BOOM– year in prison.
Just your weekly reminder that there is no crime so trivial that the government won’t throw you in a cage over.
Click here to read the full story.
Leaving tire marks on the road is now a hate crime
Canadian police are searching for a suspect in a Ford Mustang accused of a “gesture of hate.”
The car peeled out and left tire marks on a crosswalk.
But this wasn’t just any crosswalk. This was a gay pride rainbow crosswalk.
So now police are asking for information to locate the perp of this heinous crime.
Was this actually motivated by hate? Who knows!?
Maybe the guy just peeled out. Maybe it was a teenager who saw a freshly painted target on the street, and wanted to tarnish it.
Immature? Sure. A gesture of hate? We don’t know.
The point is, the media and public now have this knee-jerk reaction to anything that involves a special victim group.
It MUST be motivated by HATE! There can be no other explanation.
Click here to read the full story.
UK will fine parents for kids missing school next semester
The UK will force students back to school in the fall. And if parents are uncomfortable with that, too bad.
The Education Secretary said parents will be fined for keeping their children home from school.
Parents will not be allowed to take their own child’s health and safety into account and make the decision for themselves. The state will decide.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It is legal, however, to entirely homeschool your child in the UK, just like in the states.
And that is a freedom that feels more important every day.
Click here to read the full story.
Cops track fast food order to bust party violating lockdown
Ambulance workers eating at a KFC in Australia somehow caught wind of a large order coming in to the fast food establishment.
So naturally, instead of minding their own business, they called the police. That’s what you do in the time of Covid– snitch on your neighbors.
Police followed the delivery driver to the home that ordered the large amount of fried chicken. And sure enough, some horrible criminals were having a birthday party.
But don’t worry, the Australian police issued a total of A$26,000 (over $18,000 US) worth of fines to the partiers.
That will teach them to cower in fear at home instead of living their lives.
Covid-19 is all the excuse authorities need to go full-on police state.
Click here to read the full story.
Writer canceled for signing letter against cancel culture
Harper’s Weekly published an open letter warning against “cancel culture.”
It pointed out that the fear of saying the wrong thing at work or online is stifling free speech, killing open discussion, and chilling the exchange of ideas.
And this wasn’t some right-wing group. The letter was signed by the likes of Noam Chomsky, Margaret Atwood, and Gloria Steinem– all famous leftists.
A liberal writer from Vox, Matt Yglasias, assumed he was in good company when he also signed the letter.
But the letter was also signed by “anti-trans” people like the feminist author of Harry Potter, JK Rowling.
So a trans person, Emily VanDerWerff, who also works for Vox decided to report Matt for signing the letter. Emily also posted the letter to the Twitter thought police, but told her 70K followers that she totally wasn’t trying to get Matt in trouble.
Naturally it didn’t take long for the Twitter Inquisition to persecute Matt for his ‘hate speech’. He signed a letter that was also signed by an anti-trans person… which makes Matt anti-trans by association.
Since he was now the victim of the cancel-culture mob-attack, Matt apologized and denounced his signature on the letter.
He said he didn’t realize he was co-signing with anti-trans people.
In other words: I didn’t realize I was supporting free speech alongside some people who don’t think the exact same way as me!
Click here to read the full story.
On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years.
That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-20--US Employment Stalls As Trillion-Dollar Deficits Mount

New tax revenue data released by the Treasury Department on Monday shows that tax revenue further worsened in June ( compared year over year ) from May ’ s already cratering total .
On the plus side , neither May nor June has returned to April ’ s historic plunge in revenue .
As shown in June ’ s Monthly Treasury Statement , June ’ s total tax receipts were $ 240.8 billion .
That was down 27.8 percent year over year , a decline from May ’ s year-over-year drop of 25 percent .
This was nonetheless less of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low in revenue growth , which hit –54.8 percent .
In spite of declining revenue , federal spending continues at a record-breaking pace .
Federal outlays surged in June to $ 1.1 trillion , a remarkable sum for a single month of spending .
In recent years , federal spending for an entire year has been between $ 4 trillion and $ 4.5 trillion .
With declining tax revenues and soaring spending , the deficit reached new highs in June as well .
June ’ s budget deficit hit $ 864 billion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely that the annual budget deficit will easily top $ 3 trillion , which will be well above any previous deficits .
The annual deficit reached “ only ” $ 1.4 trillion in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis .
This moderated over the next eight years , but after years of runaway spending during the Trump administration , the annual deficit again reached $ 1 trillion in 2019 .
This was a remarkable feat for a nonrecessionary period , and I warned at the time that this did not bode well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That period has now arrived , and not surprisingly , there appears to be no end in sight to the mounting deficits .
Hopes that the economy might soon roar back and bring some relief from skyrocketing deficits remain unfounded for now .
Today ’ s new data on initial unemployment claims brought more bad news , as more than 1 million workers filed for unemployment benefits for the seventeenth week in a row .
For the week ending July 11 , initial unemployment claims totaled 1.3 million , a slight decrease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for new benefits the week prior .
That ’ s in seasonally adjusted numbers .
In unadjusted numbers , new claims actually increased from the previous week , rising from 1.4 million the week of July 4 to 1.5 million last week .
Since March , 51 million American workers have filed for unemployment .
As of the week of July 4 , 17.3 million continue to file for claims .
Moreover , June ’ s tax revenue suggests that worker income has plunged with employment .
Will earnings and jobs and tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is certainly not a given .
After all , many states and jurisdictions are now reimplementing business closures , shutdowns , and other measures which will surely eat away at both jobs and tax revenue .
As with the first round of business closures , retail sales and food services are likely to be most immediately impacted .
But underneath those industries are a wide variety of support industries , from janitorial to bookkeeping to commercial real estate , all of which will affect both blue-collar and white-collar hiring .
As earnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ danger to economic recovery lies in the decline of state and local taxes .
The threat does not lie with the tax declines themselves , but with the expected policy reaction .
As school districts , city governments , and state legislatures face immense shortfalls in revenue , many are now increasingly talking about large tax increases to fill the budget hole .
This will be crippling for businesses seeking to come back from the current round of business closures and the collapse in consumer demand for many services and products .
Tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to shift resources to more in-demand industries and start up new businesses where old ones fail .
Facing uncertainty about both tax increases and the threat of ongoing mandated business closures , many business will wait as long as possible to commit to new staff hires .

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
New tax revenue data released by the Treasury Department on Monday shows that tax revenue further worsened in June (compared year over year) from May’s already cratering total.
On the plus side, neither May nor June has returned to April’s historic plunge in revenue.
As shown in June’s Monthly Treasury Statement, June’s total tax receipts were $240.8 billion. That was down 27.8 percent year over year, a decline from May’s year-over-year drop of 25 percent. This was nonetheless less of a plunge than April’s multidecade low in revenue growth, which hit –54.8 percent.
In spite of declining revenue, federal spending continues at a record-breaking pace. Federal outlays surged in June to $1.1 trillion, a remarkable sum for a single month of spending. In recent years, federal spending for an entire year has been between $4 trillion and $4.5 trillion.
With declining tax revenues and soaring spending, the deficit reached new highs in June as well. June’s budget deficit hit $864 billion, a new high. It is now likely that the annual budget deficit will easily top $3 trillion, which will be well above any previous deficits.
The annual deficit reached “only” $1.4 trillion in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This moderated over the next eight years, but after years of runaway spending during the Trump administration, the annual deficit again reached $1 trillion in 2019. This was a remarkable feat for a nonrecessionary period, and I warned at the time that this did not bode well for any coming period of economic turbulence. That period has now arrived, and not surprisingly, there appears to be no end in sight to the mounting deficits.
Unemployment Numbers Climb Again
Hopes that the economy might soon roar back and bring some relief from skyrocketing deficits remain unfounded for now.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Today’s new data on initial unemployment claims brought more bad news, as more than 1 million workers filed for unemployment benefits for the seventeenth week in a row. For the week ending July 11, initial unemployment claims totaled 1.3 million, a slight decrease from the 1.31 million workers who filed for new benefits the week prior. That’s in seasonally adjusted numbers. In unadjusted numbers, new claims actually increased from the previous week, rising from 1.4 million the week of July 4 to 1.5 million last week.
Since March, 51 million American workers have filed for unemployment. As of the week of July 4, 17.3 million continue to file for claims.
Moreover, June’s tax revenue suggests that worker income has plunged with employment.
Will earnings and jobs and tax revenue come roaring back in July? This is certainly not a given. After all, many states and jurisdictions are now reimplementing business closures, shutdowns, and other measures which will surely eat away at both jobs and tax revenue. As with the first round of business closures, retail sales and food services are likely to be most immediately impacted.
But underneath those industries are a wide variety of support industries, from janitorial to bookkeeping to commercial real estate, all of which will affect both blue-collar and white-collar hiring.
Tax Hikes on the Horizon?
As earnings and retail sales plunge, the greatest danger to economic recovery lies in the decline of state and local taxes. The threat does not lie with the tax declines themselves, but with the expected policy reaction. As school districts, city governments, and state legislatures face immense shortfalls in revenue, many are now increasingly talking about large tax increases to fill the budget hole. This will be crippling for businesses seeking to come back from the current round of business closures and the collapse in consumer demand for many services and products. Tax increases will cripple the ability of entrepreneurs to shift resources to more in-demand industries and start up new businesses where old ones fail.
Facing uncertainty about both tax increases and the threat of ongoing mandated business closures, many business will wait as long as possible to commit to new staff hires.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-20--Second Wave PANIC BUYING Is HERE! – Fear Is Leading To Another “Supply Chain BREAKDOWN”

Josh Sigurdson reports on the latest news of panic buying throughout the world as stores lose stock of multiple items @ @ @ @ @ food , pasta and rice .
In places like Hong Kong , we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ panic buying whereas places like Australia are starting to already die down .
But there @ @ @ @ @ story than meets the eye .
As we see a second wave of lockdowns in @ @ @ @ @ , the fear is leading to many people panic buying goods .
One would certainly @ @ @ @ @ learn from the previous catastrophe , but it hasn ’ t .
Or perhaps , @ @ @ @ @ to mark up prices and make more money which is the most logical explanation considering @ @ @ @ @ actual panic buying despite goods and services internationally being more difficult to come upon .
@ @ @ @ @ this story .
Stay tuned for more from WAM !

by Josh Sigurdson of World Alternative Media
Josh Sigurdson reports on the latest news of panic buying throughout the world as stores lose stock of multiple items including soda drinks, canned food, pasta and rice.
In places like Hong Kong, we’re seeing a second wave of panic buying whereas places like Australia are starting to already die down.
But there’s more to the story than meets the eye.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As we see a second wave of lockdowns in many places throughout the world, the fear is leading to many people panic buying goods. One would certainly think the supply chain would learn from the previous catastrophe, but it hasn’t. Or perhaps, they’re utilizing fear to mark up prices and make more money which is the most logical explanation considering Mexico had little to no actual panic buying despite goods and services internationally being more difficult to come upon.
We will continue to cover this story. Stay tuned for more from WAM!
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-20--An Anti-Christ Country? China’s Brutal Persecution Of Christians Has Taken A Really Bizarre Turn

What would you do if government authorities stormed into your home , ripped down all crosses and other symbols of the Christian faith , and replaced them with pictures of prominent politicians ?
As strange as that may sound , this is something that is actually happening all over China right now .
The communist government has declared war on the Christian faith and is trying to eradicate it from their society .
Pastors are being dragged off to prison , churches are being demolished , and there is even an official effort to “ rewrite the Bible ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communist ideals .
The persecution of Christians inside China has grown to really frightening levels , and it seems to have greatly accelerated during the first half of 2020 .
Over the past several years , I had read numerous reports about Chinese officials raiding churches , but now they are actually raiding individual homes… Religious liberty magazine Bitter Winter reports that in April , officials with China ’ s Communist Party visited believers ’ homes in Linfen , a prefecture-level city in the northern province of Shanxi .
While there , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the government to replace crosses , religious symbols , and images in their homes with portraits of China ’ s communist leaders .
If Christians resisted the order , officials annulled their subsidies .
“ All impoverished households in the town were told to display Mao Zedong images , ” a local pastor told Bitter Winter .
“ The government is trying to eliminate our belief and wants to become God instead of Jesus.
” In other words , the communist Chinese government intends to replace Jesus in the hearts of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to imagine what these impoverished households in China are going through .
How would you feel if elderly Americans were having their Social Security payments cut off for worshipping Christ ?
Without those payments , a lot of elderly Americans wouldn ’ t be able to buy food or heat their homes , and this is the situation that many in China are now facing .
For example , one elderly Chinese Christian woman is now facing a future in which she won ’ t be able to afford her diabetes injections… Without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end up dead .
In other instances , Chinese officials are raiding private residences that are hosting church services , and some of the confrontations are quite dramatic .
Here is just one example… In a video taken at the scene , officers and attendees of Xingguang Church shout as they engage in a physical altercation .
As they block the entrance , officials drag a Christian to the door , with other congregants fighting along with him .
The Christian men guarding the door were beaten and pinned down .
Officers confiscated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Christian women as well .
Xingguang Church ’ s meeting place is located in a private residence , and neighbors of the location where the service was being held filmed the encounter .
Police broke down barriers and dragged brought three people out .
During the proceedings , the officers did not show any warrants .
The church was later banned .
Would you still go to church if you knew that authorities may come bursting in at any moment and drag you to prison ?
This has become a weekly reality for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when authorities raid a church they literally demolish the entire structure that day .
In fact , this is precisely what happened to one prominent church in China ’ s Henan province on June 12th… In the morning , around 200 officials from various government departments arrived at the Sunzhuang Church with cranes and heavy-duty machinery .
Personnel from the Zhengzhou High-Tech District Ethnic and Religious Affairs Bureau forced their way into the church and took control of the Christians gathered there .
They did not show any legal documents .
Some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chairs , were tossed outside .
At least one Christian woman resisted , and she lost consciousness and had to be taken to the hospital after being pushed to the ground .
Another Christian was hospitalized after officials beat her .
One male church attendee was taken into custody .
The church was then demolished .
In other instances when churches have been raided , Bibles and other symbols of the Christian faith have been gathered into giant piles and burned publicly .
Of course most Americans have never heard about any of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States do not consider the persecution of Christians to be “ newsworthy ” .
During past waves of persecution , officials always left the government-approved Three Self churches alone , but now they are even being persecuted… “ We have to do whatever the government tells us to , ” said the director of a Three Self church in Jiangxi province , according to watchdog site Bitter Winter .
“ We ’ ve proven our patriotism , donated money to help curb coronavirus in Wuhan , as they had required @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our church grew too rapidly , and they fear that having many believers is unfavorable to them.
” The church is located in Jiangjia village in Yangbu town .
On April 21 , authorities removed the church ’ s cross , and three days later , they closed the church after removing chairs and religious symbols from the building .
The church ’ s director said , “ We don ’ t know what to do now.
” When the communist government in China decides to do something , they can be brutally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unturned , and no aspect of the Christian faith is being left out .
In fact , as I mentioned above , the communist government even wants to rewrite the Bible in order to make it compatible with “ core socialist values ” … Please pray for our persecuted brothers and sisters in China , because they desperately need it .
Of course they are not alone .
Persecution is rising all over the globe , and I fully expect it to continue to intensify as time rolls along .

by Michael Snyder
What would you do if government authorities stormed into your home, ripped down all crosses and other symbols of the Christian faith, and replaced them with pictures of prominent politicians? As strange as that may sound, this is something that is actually happening all over China right now. The communist government has declared war on the Christian faith and is trying to eradicate it from their society. Pastors are being dragged off to prison, churches are being demolished, and there is even an official effort to “rewrite the Bible” in order to make it compatible with Chinese communist ideals. The persecution of Christians inside China has grown to really frightening levels, and it seems to have greatly accelerated during the first half of 2020.
Over the past several years, I had read numerous reports about Chinese officials raiding churches, but now they are actually raiding individual homes…
Religious liberty magazine Bitter Winter reports that in April, officials with China’s Communist Party visited believers’ homes in Linfen, a prefecture-level city in the northern province of Shanxi. While there, they ordered residents who receive social welfare payments from the government to replace crosses, religious symbols, and images in their homes with portraits of China’s communist leaders. If Christians resisted the order, officials annulled their subsidies. “All impoverished households in the town were told to display Mao Zedong images,” a local pastor told Bitter Winter. “The government is trying to eliminate our belief and wants to become God instead of Jesus.”
In other words, the communist Chinese government intends to replace Jesus in the hearts of the people.
For a moment, try to imagine what these impoverished households in China are going through. How would you feel if elderly Americans were having their Social Security payments cut off for worshipping Christ? Without those payments, a lot of elderly Americans wouldn’t be able to buy food or heat their homes, and this is the situation that many in China are now facing.
For example, one elderly Chinese Christian woman is now facing a future in which she won’t be able to afford her diabetes injections…
Another elderly Christian woman from Henan’s Shangqiu city had her minimum living allowance canceled after government officials found a cross image posted on the door of her home. “They tore it down immediately,” she said. “Afterward, both my minimum living allowance and poverty alleviation subsidy were canceled. I am being driven to a dead end. I have diabetes and need injections regularly.”
Without those injections, she could very easily end up dead.
In other instances, Chinese officials are raiding private residences that are hosting church services, and some of the confrontations are quite dramatic. Here is just one example…
In a video taken at the scene, officers and attendees of Xingguang Church shout as they engage in a physical altercation. As they block the entrance, officials drag a Christian to the door, with other congregants fighting along with him. The Christian men guarding the door were beaten and pinned down. Officers confiscated phones and used brutal force against some Christian women as well. Xingguang Church’s meeting place is located in a private residence, and neighbors of the location where the service was being held filmed the encounter. Police broke down barriers and dragged brought three people out. During the proceedings, the officers did not show any warrants. The church was later banned.
Would you still go to church if you knew that authorities may come bursting in at any moment and drag you to prison?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This has become a weekly reality for Christians all over China.
And sometimes when authorities raid a church they literally demolish the entire structure that day. In fact, this is precisely what happened to one prominent church in China’s Henan province on June 12th…
Authorities demolished a church in China’s Henan province on June 12. In the morning, around 200 officials from various government departments arrived at the Sunzhuang Church with cranes and heavy-duty machinery. Personnel from the Zhengzhou High-Tech District Ethnic and Religious Affairs Bureau forced their way into the church and took control of the Christians gathered there. They did not show any legal documents. Some of the church’s property, including chairs, were tossed outside. At least one Christian woman resisted, and she lost consciousness and had to be taken to the hospital after being pushed to the ground. Another Christian was hospitalized after officials beat her. One male church attendee was taken into custody. The church was then demolished.
In other instances when churches have been raided, Bibles and other symbols of the Christian faith have been gathered into giant piles and burned publicly. Of course most Americans have never heard about any of this, because most mainstream news networks in the United States do not consider the persecution of Christians to be “newsworthy”.
During past waves of persecution, officials always left the government-approved Three Self churches alone, but now they are even being persecuted…
“We have to do whatever the government tells us to,” said the director of a Three Self church in Jiangxi province, according to watchdog site Bitter Winter. “We’ve proven our patriotism, donated money to help curb coronavirus in Wuhan, as they had required. Still, the government says that our church grew too rapidly, and they fear that having many believers is unfavorable to them.” The church is located in Jiangjia village in Yangbu town. On April 21, authorities removed the church’s cross, and three days later, they closed the church after removing chairs and religious symbols from the building. The church’s director said, “We don’t know what to do now.”
When the communist government in China decides to do something, they can be brutally efficient.
No stone is being left unturned, and no aspect of the Christian faith is being left out. In fact, as I mentioned above, the communist government even wants to rewrite the Bible in order to make it compatible with “core socialist values”…
The centerpiece of this campaign is a major new undertaking to rewrite holy scripture. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency said late last year that Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang had presided over a meeting of so-called scholars and “religious people from the grassroots level” to discuss “making accurate and authoritative interpretations of classical doctrines to keep pace with the times.” It would take years to create official state translations of the Bible, Quran and other religious texts. Purging passages deemed incompatible with “core socialist values” while retaining a measure of the original poetry—this would require literary achievement and deep religious knowledge, both of which are lacking in the party’s handpicked experts. Even entertaining such an idea reveals Beijing’s staggering “arrogance of power,” Mr. Lian says, noting that Chinese emperors never attempted such a feat.
Please pray for our persecuted brothers and sisters in China, because they desperately need it.
Of course they are not alone. Persecution is rising all over the globe, and I fully expect it to continue to intensify as time rolls along.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-20--Coronavirus – Necessary Evil

Coronavirus – Necessary Evil

My Microsoft Office just chewed up the first copy of this article , so here we go again .
This is the # 3 Installment of a series of articles with the original title of HOW DID THIS HAPPEN – WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE ?
I feel my latest research opens a door of clarity for me , and I hope it will for you , too .
There are several topics of interest at this point , and here they are – • None Bill Gates and Dr. Anthony Fauci are locked in a power struggle with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usher in the ‘ mark of the beast.
’ • None The Tech Community of the world has a great concern the United States can not compete in the global AI future , unless the American way of life changes .
The Coronavirus or the ‘ Wu Han Flu ’ has been used to make this change .
• None We are moving now into a society controlled by mass surveillance , of which AI will control .
• None President Trump is fighting to save the United States as a sovereign Country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ struggle with those around him AND CHINA .
I will be doing some heavy quoting from some recent and amazing articles .
They open up quite a few doors we must walk through now .
Gates has a lot of pull in the medical world , he has a multi-million dollar relationship with Dr. Fauci , and Fauci originally took the Gates line supporting vaccines and casting doubt on Chloroquine .
Coronavirus response team member Dr. Deborah Birx , appointed by former president Obama to serve as United States Global AIDS Coordinator , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group that has received billions from Gates ’ foundation .
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation recently provided funding to both IHME and Imperial College London , which put out wildly overblown models for the Coronavirus outbreak that caused mass panic and contributed to worldwide government lockdown .
Gates is a big proponent for a population lockdown scenario for the Coronavirus outbreak .
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease ( NIAID , a division of National Institutes of Health , NIH ) director Dr. Anthony Fauci , who is represented by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s hopeful assessment of Chloroquine , saying in an interview with CNN ’ s Anderson Cooper that “ There ’ s no magic drug for coronavirus right now , ” and lectured , “ Let me put it into perspective for the viewers .. there has been anecdotal non-proven data that it [ chloroquine ] works… but when you have an uncontrolled trial you can never definitely say that it works.
” Fauci then changed his tune and launched a public relations campaign huddling closer to Trump .
Fauci is pushing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to normal in our society until we have the ability to mass-vaccinate people , echoing Bill Gates ’ assertion that mass gatherings in our culture “ may not come back at all ” before mass-vaccinations .
Now the door opens for the ‘ Mark of the Beast.
’ How many would accept the mark now ?
What would happen if you turn down Gate ’ s and Fauci ’ s Mark in the guise of a global pandemic vaccination ?
I think you would find it very interesting to take a look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ following is also a very important view .
Gates and his father for decades have been connected to George Soros and Dr. Anthony Fauci .
Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are famous now after being on stage almost daily with President Trump updating the public on government actions over the coronavirus pandemic .
Deborah Birx ’ s husband , Paige Reffe , was the advance man for Bill Clinton .
I will close now , and tomorrow I will be talking more on Point # 3 .
[ Title ]

By Ruby Henley
My Microsoft Office just chewed up the first copy of this article, so here we go again. This is the #3 Installment of a series of articles with the original title of HOW DID THIS HAPPEN – WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
I feel my latest research opens a door of clarity for me, and I hope it will for you, too.
There are several topics of interest at this point, and here they are –
Bill Gates and Dr. Anthony Fauci are locked in a power struggle with President Trump to use the coronavirus to usher in the ‘mark of the beast.’ The Tech Community of the world has a great concern the United States cannot compete in the global AI future, unless the American way of life changes. The Coronavirus or the ‘Wu Han Flu’ has been used to make this change. We are moving now into a society controlled by mass surveillance, of which AI will control. President Trump is fighting to save the United States as a sovereign Country, as he is locked into a struggle with those around him AND CHINA.
I will be doing some heavy quoting from some recent and amazing articles. They open up quite a few doors we must walk through now.
QUOTE –
Gates has a lot of pull in the medical world, he has a multi-million dollar relationship with Dr. Fauci, and Fauci originally took the Gates line supporting vaccines and casting doubt on Chloroquine. Coronavirus response team member Dr. Deborah Birx, appointed by former president Obama to serve as United States Global AIDS Coordinator, also sits on the board of a group that has received billions from Gates’ foundation.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation recently provided funding to both IHME and Imperial College London, which put out wildly overblown models for the Coronavirus outbreak that caused mass panic and contributed to worldwide government lockdown. Gates is a big proponent for a population lockdown scenario for the Coronavirus outbreak.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID, a division of National Institutes of Health, NIH) director Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is represented by the Aurumn Speakers Bureau, initially criticized Trump’s hopeful assessment of Chloroquine, saying in an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper that “There’s no magic drug for coronavirus right now,” and lectured, “Let me put it into perspective for the viewers .. there has been anecdotal non-proven data that it [chloroquine] works… but when you have an uncontrolled trial you can never definitely say that it works.”
Fauci then changed his tune and launched a public relations campaign huddling closer to Trump.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Fauci is pushing the talking point that things will never go back to normal in our society until we have the ability to mass-vaccinate people, echoing Bill Gates’ assertion that mass gatherings in our culture “may not come back at all” before mass-vaccinations.
END OF QUOTE
Now the door opens for the ‘Mark of the Beast.’ How many would accept the mark now? What would happen if you turn down Gate’s and Fauci’s Mark in the guise of a global pandemic vaccination?
I think you would find it very interesting to take a look at the following Twitter thread –
twitter.com/i/status/1223507698064347138
The following is also a very important view.
twitter.com/HRHPrincessPR/status/1241100924292136960/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1241100924292136960%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnationalfile.com%2Fexposed-truth-fauci-birx-gates-elites%2F
Gates and his father for decades have been connected to George Soros and Dr. Anthony Fauci. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are famous now after being on stage almost daily with President Trump updating the public on government actions over the coronavirus pandemic.
Deborah Birx’s husband, Paige Reffe, was the advance man for Bill Clinton.
I will close now, and tomorrow I will be talking more on Point #3.[Title]


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-20--As America’s Economic Suffering Grows, The Calls For More Socialism Grow Louder

It is during moments of great crisis that we find out who we really are , and that is why the governmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been so heartbreaking .
Instead of rallying around our founding principles , Democrats and Republicans have both gravitated toward “ solutions ” that are in the exact opposite direction .
Bigger government programs , more government tyranny and huge socialist transfer payments have all been greatly welcomed by the mainstream media and by large portions of the U.S. population , and at the same time very few voices are warning us that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , exploding the size of our national debt and setting extremely dangerous precedents for the future .
Once people become accustomed to receiving money directly from the federal government , it is exceedingly difficult to ever cut those payments off .
If you think back through our history , it is difficult to name a single major transfer payment program that was ever rolled back .
Over time , our federal government has just gotten bigger and bigger and bigger , and it is now the biggest government that anyone has ever seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yes , tens of millions of Americans are deeply hurting right now .
Over the past 17 weeks , a total of 51.3 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits , and that represents the most dramatic spike in unemployment that the U.S. has ever experienced .
And since most Americans were just barely scraping by financially coming into this year , we are facing a future in which millions upon millions of our fellow citizens aren ’ t going to be able to pay their bills .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tragic story of a 35-year-old hair stylist named Chelsie Caudle… The mother of two has run into delays applying for unemployment and food stamps in Portland , Oregon , after Grace Salon , a hair salon that specializes in cutting and coloring , was forced to shutter in March when the coronavirus pandemic hit .
Caudle , who is self-employed , sublet a spot at Grace Salon to run her own business called Benjamin LLC .
But with no income coming in for months , bills piled up , making it hard for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she says .
I think that most of us can identify with what she is going through , because nearly all of us have experienced the same thing at some point in our lives .
In order to relieve the suffering of those that found themselves suddenly unemployed , Congress approved $ 600 a week unemployment bonuses as part of the 2.2 trillion dollar CARES Act that it passed in March… For a while , it sounded like the Republicans were actually against extending the extra unemployment benefits , but now it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them a bit… In the end , the Republican socialists in Congress will probably fold like a 20 dollar suit like they always do , and so the Democratic socialists in Congress will likely end up with most ( or all ) of what they want in this next “ stimulus bill ” .
And very few people will even talk about the fact that this new “ stimulus bill ” will steal trillions of more dollars from future generations of Americans .
This is what socialism always does .
It steals money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another .
In our case , we have been stealing from future generations for so long that we have absolutely obliterated the bright future that they were supposed to have .
Meanwhile , the calls for “ a second stimulus check ” are becoming louder as well .
In fact , one recent survey found that a lot of Americans want the next “ stimulus check ” to be even bigger than the last one… When the first round of stimulus checks went out , I warned that this was setting a very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want more checks , and I was precisely correct .
There are a lot of good conservatives out there that felt guilty about taking the first round of stimulus checks because they recognized that the checks represented a giant step toward socialism .
I can definitely understand why people were feeling conflicted , but my advice is to accept whatever checks the government sends to you .
Because at this point what we are facing is a battle for survival .
We are entering a truly nightmarish chapter in American history , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If a little bit of extra money can help you and your family get prepared for what is coming , that is a good thing .
However , it is also appropriate to mourn for what has been lost .
At one time , America was a beacon of hope in a world where billions were living under socialist tyranny .
But now we are racing toward full-blown socialism at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking , and nearly all of our politicians have completely abandoned our founding principles .

by Michael Snyder
It is during moments of great crisis that we find out who we really are, and that is why the governmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been so heartbreaking. Instead of rallying around our founding principles, Democrats and Republicans have both gravitated toward “solutions” that are in the exact opposite direction. Bigger government programs, more government tyranny and huge socialist transfer payments have all been greatly welcomed by the mainstream media and by large portions of the U.S. population, and at the same time very few voices are warning us that these measures are eroding our fundamental rights, exploding the size of our national debt and setting extremely dangerous precedents for the future.
Once people become accustomed to receiving money directly from the federal government, it is exceedingly difficult to ever cut those payments off. If you think back through our history, it is difficult to name a single major transfer payment program that was ever rolled back. Over time, our federal government has just gotten bigger and bigger and bigger, and it is now the biggest government that anyone has ever seen in the history of the entire planet.
Yes, tens of millions of Americans are deeply hurting right now. Over the past 17 weeks, a total of 51.3 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and that represents the most dramatic spike in unemployment that the U.S. has ever experienced.
And since most Americans were just barely scraping by financially coming into this year, we are facing a future in which millions upon millions of our fellow citizens aren’t going to be able to pay their bills. In a recent article, USA Today featured the tragic story of a 35-year-old hair stylist named Chelsie Caudle…
The mother of two has run into delays applying for unemployment and food stamps in Portland, Oregon, after Grace Salon, a hair salon that specializes in cutting and coloring, was forced to shutter in March when the coronavirus pandemic hit. Caudle, who is self-employed, sublet a spot at Grace Salon to run her own business called Benjamin LLC. But with no income coming in for months, bills piled up, making it hard for her to afford groceries for her family, she says.
I think that most of us can identify with what she is going through, because nearly all of us have experienced the same thing at some point in our lives.
In order to relieve the suffering of those that found themselves suddenly unemployed, Congress approved $600 a week unemployment bonuses as part of the 2.2 trillion dollar CARES Act that it passed in March…
The $600 weekly payments from the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program were put in place as part of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act that Congress passed in late March amid the coronavirus pandemic. Americans who are eligible for unemployment insurance receive an extra $600 on top of what they normally claim under their state’s benefits. Yet this boost is scheduled to end for all states except New York, on Saturday July 25, 2020. New York’s end date is Sunday, July 26, according to the Department of Labor.
For a while, it sounded like the Republicans were actually against extending the extra unemployment benefits, but now it appears that they just hope to reduce them a bit…
On Sunday, The Washington Post reported that in light of the enhanced $600 per week federal unemployment benefits poised to run out in less than a week, the White House and top Senate Republicans are considering measures including extending a smaller-scale weekly federal enhanced unemployment benefit of $200 or $400 per week or means-testing future federal unemployment benefits.
In the end, the Republican socialists in Congress will probably fold like a 20 dollar suit like they always do, and so the Democratic socialists in Congress will likely end up with most (or all) of what they want in this next “stimulus bill”.
And very few people will even talk about the fact that this new “stimulus bill” will steal trillions of more dollars from future generations of Americans.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This is what socialism always does. It steals money from one group and gives it to another.
In our case, we have been stealing from future generations for so long that we have absolutely obliterated the bright future that they were supposed to have.
Meanwhile, the calls for “a second stimulus check” are becoming louder as well.
In fact, one recent survey found that a lot of Americans want the next “stimulus check” to be even bigger than the last one…
More than two-thirds of Americans say they still need a second stimulus check from the government to help make ends meet, according to recent data from tax preparer Jackson Hewitt. And about a third of that group said the $1,200 checks needed to be more than the previous round. Only about a quarter of them say they wouldn’t need another emergency payment.
When the first round of stimulus checks went out, I warned that this was setting a very dangerous precedent and that people would soon want more checks, and I was precisely correct.
There are a lot of good conservatives out there that felt guilty about taking the first round of stimulus checks because they recognized that the checks represented a giant step toward socialism.
I can definitely understand why people were feeling conflicted, but my advice is to accept whatever checks the government sends to you.
Because at this point what we are facing is a battle for survival. We are entering a truly nightmarish chapter in American history, and our entire system is going to fail. If a little bit of extra money can help you and your family get prepared for what is coming, that is a good thing.
However, it is also appropriate to mourn for what has been lost. At one time, America was a beacon of hope in a world where billions were living under socialist tyranny. But now we are racing toward full-blown socialism at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking, and nearly all of our politicians have completely abandoned our founding principles.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--A vaccine is the light at the end of the tunnel, but how many companies can make it through the dark

A vaccine is the light at the end of the tunnel, but how many companies can make it through the darkness?

A # vaccine is the light at the end of the tunnel , but how many companies can make it @ @ @ @ @ COVID19 pic.twitter.com/8fWJZxfObF

A #vaccine is the light at the end of the tunnel, but how many companies can make it through the darkness? #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/8fWJZxfObF
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) July 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Will There Be A Mean Revision In Margins?

The ‘ long term ’ is relative .
A trader can think 5 minutes is the long term , while someone else can think 15 years is the long term .
In our Twitter poll , 49.6 % of 113 voters said the long term is about 5 years for investments ( 26.5 % said 10 years or more ) .
Time horizons make markets .
They explain why someone would take profits after a great earnings report even though it means great things for the future of the business .
It ’ s very important to be honest with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with it for the most part .
Don ’ t turn trades into investments just because you want to get back to even .
Don ’ t react to daily movements in the stock price if you are a long term investor .
Every rule has exceptions , but the key is to always stay true to yourself .
If you react to the price action emotionally instead of sticking with your original thesis , there ’ s no point in even making a thesis .
Many investors don ’ t sell their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they believe they won ’ t be able to find a replacement .
Others would be fine with replacing an expensive great stock with a mediocre cheap one .
It ’ s all a matter of style .
The graphic above shows how time horizons change what investors should look at .
If they are trading over a few days or weeks , sentiment matters .
Year to year performance depends on multiples .
This isn ’ t always true though because the multi-decade long decline in rates has caused long term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few years , cycles matter .
If you have a time horizon of a few years , you want to avoid recessions because they can wipe away a few years worth of gains .
When investing for almost a decade , returns on invested capital matter the most .
There needs to be a balance of high returns and decent sized opportunities .
It ’ s no good if high returns are rare .
When investing over a decade , culture matters because the fundamental business can change .
However , culture also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a major scandal .
Culture involves both ethics and a mentality of thinking long term .
Bearish investors have been calling for a decline in margins for years .
They are referring to a long term mean reversion , not a short term cyclical decline like we are seeing now .
In Q2 , FactSet shows the blended net profit margin is expected to be 7.1 % which is down from 9.3 % in Q1 and 10.9 % in Q4 2019 .
That would be the lowest net margin since Q4 2009 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin expansion has been driven by a shift towards sectors with high margins .
Software has eaten the world because it has high margins .
This weighting shift in the indexes is the same reason why the stock market has a higher PE multiple .
Specific companies didn ’ t become more expensive ( up until recently ) .
Instead , the ‘ expensive ’ high margin companies got bigger .
The chart above exemplifies this point on margin weighting .
It shows the same store margin ratio which is the margins for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the margin expansion in the past 30 years came from the same companies having higher margins .
That makes higher margins more sustainable .
You need to believe software margins will fall for overall margins to fall .
That ’ s not an impossible feat .
The more capital chases this industry , the more competition there will be .
Competition hurts margins .
High margins are unlikely to last forever in any business if it attracts enough capital .
Generally , high margin businesses generate a lot of competition .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great businesses .
The chart below shows how margins went from 7.2 % in 1989 to 15.1 % in 2019 .
As you can see , 4.2 points were related to mix and composition .
Margins were also helped 1.2 points by lower taxes and 1 point by lower interest rates .
Therefore , low rates raise margins and raise valuations .
They have been a boon for stocks over the past few decades .
Some would say almost every investor relies on low rates to some extent .
Growth stocks have outperformed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; if you want to hedge the bet everyone is implicitly making , go long energy and bank stocks .
You can also go long commodities .
Many investors not focused on macro don ’ t even realize they are making a bet on low rates .
Others think the Fed will always bail them out which is a dangerous game .
Markets where no one sees risk are the riskiest .
Retail Traders Are All In No one would believe it if someone told you 8 months ago that there would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic and one of the biggest responses everyday people had was to speculate on individual stocks and options .
Even at the end of a great bull market in a 10 year expansion , there wasn ’ t as much speculation as there is now .
The craze where retail traders were buying bankrupt companies is over , but retail traders are still in the market .
Charles Schwab just reported earnings .
As you can see , they had an astounding 1.371 million new accounts opened in Q2 which is over 6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Q4 2019 .
Back in Q4 2019 , many bears were worried about excess speculation in the market .
That was a very fair concern , but retail investors weren ’ t involved .
Many people believed the movement towards index funds was the sign of excess .
That is of minimal concern compared to this 10.8 % increase in accounts at Charles Schwab in one quarter .
Robinhood likely added even more accounts than this .
It seems like most of the retail traders who would have made an account , already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because people invested because of the stimulus checks and the big market decline .
The checks are gone for now and the dip has been almost fully reversed .
Time horizon determines what you should look at when investing .
Don ’ t change your process because of near term price action .
Margins increased mostly because software companies became larger .
That increase might not be permanent as software gets more competitive .
Retail traders are all in .
If you use that as a reverse indicator , now would be a @ @ @ @ @ @

by UPFINA
The ‘long term’ is relative. A trader can think 5 minutes is the long term, while someone else can think 15 years is the long term. In our Twitter poll, 49.6% of 113 voters said the long term is about 5 years for investments (26.5% said 10 years or more). Time horizons make markets. They explain why someone would take profits after a great earnings report even though it means great things for the future of the business. It’s very important to be honest with yourself about your time horizon and stick with it for the most part. Don’t turn trades into investments just because you want to get back to even. Don’t react to daily movements in the stock price if you are a long term investor.
Every rule has exceptions, but the key is to always stay true to yourself. If you react to the price action emotionally instead of sticking with your original thesis, there’s no point in even making a thesis. Many investors don’t sell their favorite businesses even when they become overvalued because they believe they won’t be able to find a replacement. Others would be fine with replacing an expensive great stock with a mediocre cheap one. It’s all a matter of style.
The graphic above shows how time horizons change what investors should look at. If they are trading over a few days or weeks, sentiment matters. Year to year performance depends on multiples. This isn’t always true though because the multi-decade long decline in rates has caused long term multiple expansion.
When investing for a few years, cycles matter. If you have a time horizon of a few years, you want to avoid recessions because they can wipe away a few years worth of gains. When investing for almost a decade, returns on invested capital matter the most. There needs to be a balance of high returns and decent sized opportunities. It’s no good if high returns are rare. When investing over a decade, culture matters because the fundamental business can change. However, culture also matters in the short term if there is a major scandal. Culture involves both ethics and a mentality of thinking long term.
Margin Mix Shift
Bearish investors have been calling for a decline in margins for years. They are referring to a long term mean reversion, not a short term cyclical decline like we are seeing now. In Q2, FactSet shows the blended net profit margin is expected to be 7.1% which is down from 9.3% in Q1 and 10.9% in Q4 2019. That would be the lowest net margin since Q4 2009 which was 6.8%. Long term margin expansion has been driven by a shift towards sectors with high margins. Software has eaten the world because it has high margins. This weighting shift in the indexes is the same reason why the stock market has a higher PE multiple. Specific companies didn’t become more expensive (up until recently). Instead, the ‘expensive’ high margin companies got bigger.
The chart above exemplifies this point on margin weighting. It shows the same store margin ratio which is the margins for the same companies. Only 1.5 points of the margin expansion in the past 30 years came from the same companies having higher margins. That makes higher margins more sustainable. You need to believe software margins will fall for overall margins to fall. That’s not an impossible feat. The more capital chases this industry, the more competition there will be. Competition hurts margins. High margins are unlikely to last forever in any business if it attracts enough capital. Generally, high margin businesses generate a lot of competition. That’s the catch to investing in great businesses.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The chart below shows how margins went from 7.2% in 1989 to 15.1% in 2019. As you can see, 4.2 points were related to mix and composition.
worth posting again: GMO on why they don't fear margins mean-reverting post crisis t.co/DjVHdKQXiO pic.twitter.com/0IhcETDOU0 — Lawrence Hamtil (@lhamtil) July 16, 2020
Margins were also helped 1.2 points by lower taxes and 1 point by lower interest rates. Therefore, low rates raise margins and raise valuations. They have been a boon for stocks over the past few decades. Some would say almost every investor relies on low rates to some extent. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks in the past few years; if you want to hedge the bet everyone is implicitly making, go long energy and bank stocks. You can also go long commodities. Many investors not focused on macro don’t even realize they are making a bet on low rates. Others think the Fed will always bail them out which is a dangerous game. Markets where no one sees risk are the riskiest.
Retail Traders Are All In
No one would believe it if someone told you 8 months ago that there would be a global recession brought about by a pandemic and one of the biggest responses everyday people had was to speculate on individual stocks and options. Even at the end of a great bull market in a 10 year expansion, there wasn’t as much speculation as there is now.
The craze where retail traders were buying bankrupt companies is over, but retail traders are still in the market. Charles Schwab just reported earnings. As you can see, they had an astounding 1.371 million new accounts opened in Q2 which is over 6 times the number of accounts opened in Q4 2019. Back in Q4 2019, many bears were worried about excess speculation in the market. That was a very fair concern, but retail investors weren’t involved.
Many people believed the movement towards index funds was the sign of excess. That is of minimal concern compared to this 10.8% increase in accounts at Charles Schwab in one quarter. Robinhood likely added even more accounts than this. It seems like most of the retail traders who would have made an account, already did in Q2. That’s because people invested because of the stimulus checks and the big market decline. The checks are gone for now and the dip has been almost fully reversed.
Conclusion
Time horizon determines what you should look at when investing. Don’t change your process because of near term price action. Margins increased mostly because software companies became larger. That increase might not be permanent as software gets more competitive. Retail traders are all in. If you use that as a reverse indicator, now would be a great time to be bearish.