investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF RIOTING LASTS FOR DECADES:

How might the riots be responsible for these outcomes ?
The National Bureau of Economic Research suggests a number of ways : Property risk might seem higher in central city neighborhoods than before the riots , causing insurance premiums to rise ; taxes for income redistribution or more police and fire protection might increase , and municipal bonds may be more difficult to place ; retail outlets might close ; businesses and employment opportunities might relocate ; middle and higher income households might move away ; burned out buildings might be an eyesore ; and so on .
These damaging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , apparently outweighed outside assistance directed toward the riot areas in the wake of the disturbances .
The Minnesota Reformer reported in mid-July that : At least 127 people are facing charges related to the unrest after Floyd ’ s death , according to a Reformer review of all unrest-related charges filed so far by the U.S. Attorney ’ s Office , Hennepin County , Ramsey County , the city of St. Paul and the city of Minneapolis .
The vast majority of people charged are Minnesota residents — but fewer than half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It might be fun for some people to travel to a riot , smash some stuff up , and head home thinking they have struck a blow for some cause or other .
The evidence shows that it is those left behind who pay the costs .
Or as James Lileks wrote yesterday of Minneapolis : They had stories of what it ’ s like to live downtown now , and if I could sum it up , it would be this : SUDDENLY CRAZY .
Emboldened lawlessness .
A year ago : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ views , access to parks and restaurants , peaceable dog walks after dark .
Now : Carjackings , fireworks , madmen muttering outside the front door , a spiky sense that anything outside of a block or two radius is questionable .
These are long-time downtown residents .
It should be noted that they did not gentrify anything and drive out residents ; the area was utterly depopulated until the condos were built in the husks of the old industrial buildings .
They pay a huge amount of taxes .
And they feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because no one does .
It ’ s not that no one can fight the disorder .
It ’ s that there aren ’ t enough resources , and disorder is something they ’ re expected to accept .
It took 20 years to build up this part of the city , and three months to spoil it .
Just compare Detroit to this time capsule video from 1965 , just before the lights went out : Related : When Half of NYC ’ s Tax Base Leaves and Never Comes Back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Burn Down Police Union , Police Stand Down to ‘ Deescalate ’ the Riot .
Since antifa rioters have a well-funded network that bails them out after they get arrested , and since the local district attorney has announced he will not prosecute various crimes — even when rioters violently attack police — perhaps the police decided it was not worth their time to arrest the rioters .
Or perhaps Wheeler directed them to stand down on the ridiculous hope that not enforcing the law would somehow “ deescalate ” the situation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ violent antifa rioters , it appears he is triangulating in the race against self-described antifa candidate Sarah Iannarone .
Wheeler rightly condemned violent antifa rioters for “ attempting to commit murder ” by trapping police officers inside the Penumbra Kelly building before trying to light it on fire .
Iannarone refused to condemn the attempted murder , saying , “ I understand why they ’ re angry.
” These are the two candidates who will face off in November — the mayor who waited for months to condemn the violence and the challenger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Related : Portland police officer on nightly protests : ‘ They ’ ve been hijacked by anarchists ’ “ I believe that we would have buildings on fire .
I truly do , ” [ Sgt .
Brent Maxey ] replied .
He continued , “ The people that have been coming out to the justice center and to the police precincts , they want to abolish the police…They ’ re basically trying to bankrupt the Portland Police Bureau .
I think if we didn ’ t respond to these things I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fire.
” As for what Sgt .
Maxey sees as the solution to this ongoing situation , he says it has to be about conversations rather than screaming matches .
He describes one incident where someone shouted something vulgar at him .
He engaged the person and they wound up speaking for 90 minutes .
He said that at the end they didn ’ t agree but they both shook hands and he felt like there was some mutual understanding .
“ All I see anymore is screaming .
We go out and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .
He added , “ If I do find somebody who wants to talk , other people come and shut them down.
” At this point I would just interject that there are reasons the woke won ’ t debate people , including the officers they are protesting .
As James Lindsay put it , “ Conversation and debate are part of our game , and they are not part of their game.
” Their game , in the case of the Portland protests , is tactics of conflict and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to that goal .
More : Andy Ngo tweets a link to the following video , in which veteran journalist Lisa Balick of Portland CBS affiliate KOIN 6 “ reports what happened yesterday when a BLM mob beat Adam Haner unconscious in downtown after attacking his partner .
Straight news like this is rare .
Most media in Portland have systematically failed or misled the public : ”

via americanexperiment:
How might the riots be responsible for these outcomes? The National Bureau of Economic Research suggests a number of ways: Property risk might seem higher in central city neighborhoods than before the riots, causing insurance premiums to rise; taxes for income redistribution or more police and fire protection might increase, and municipal bonds may be more difficult to place; retail outlets might close; businesses and employment opportunities might relocate; middle and higher income households might move away; burned out buildings might be an eyesore; and so on. These damaging aspects of riots, the authors find, apparently outweighed outside assistance directed toward the riot areas in the wake of the disturbances. The Minnesota Reformer reported in mid-July that: At least 127 people are facing charges related to the unrest after Floyd’s death, according to a Reformer review of all unrest-related charges filed so far by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Hennepin County, Ramsey County, the city of St. Paul and the city of Minneapolis. The vast majority of people charged are Minnesota residents — but fewer than half live in Minneapolis or St. Paul. It might be fun for some people to travel to a riot, smash some stuff up, and head home thinking they have struck a blow for some cause or other. The evidence shows that it is those left behind who pay the costs.
Or as James Lileks wrote yesterday of Minneapolis:
They had stories of what it’s like to live downtown now, and if I could sum it up, it would be this: SUDDENLY CRAZY. Emboldened lawlessness. A year ago: living in a beautiful neighborhood with spectacular views, access to parks and restaurants, peaceable dog walks after dark. Now: Carjackings, fireworks, madmen muttering outside the front door, a spiky sense that anything outside of a block or two radius is questionable. These are long-time downtown residents. It should be noted that they did not gentrify anything and drive out residents; the area was utterly depopulated until the condos were built in the husks of the old industrial buildings. They pay a huge amount of taxes. And they feel as if no one has their back, because no one does. It’s not that no one can fight the disorder. It’s that there aren’t enough resources, and disorder is something they’re expected to accept. It took 20 years to build up this part of the city, and three months to spoil it.
Just compare Pompeii Detroit to this time capsule video from 1965, just before the lights went out:
Related: When Half of NYC’s Tax Base Leaves and Never Comes Back.
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Portland Antifa Rioters Again Try to Burn Down Police Union, Police Stand Down to ‘Deescalate’ the Riot.
Since antifa rioters have a well-funded network that bails them out after they get arrested, and since the local district attorney has announced he will not prosecute various crimes — even when rioters violently attack police — perhaps the police decided it was not worth their time to arrest the rioters. Or perhaps Wheeler directed them to stand down on the ridiculous hope that not enforcing the law would somehow “deescalate” the situation. Although Wheeler has finally vocally condemned the violent antifa rioters, it appears he is triangulating in the race against self-described antifa candidate Sarah Iannarone. Wheeler rightly condemned violent antifa rioters for “attempting to commit murder” by trapping police officers inside the Penumbra Kelly building before trying to light it on fire. Iannarone refused to condemn the attempted murder, saying, “I understand why they’re angry.” These are the two candidates who will face off in November — the mayor who waited for months to condemn the violence and the challenger who still refuses to condemn attempted murder.
Related: Portland police officer on nightly protests: ‘They’ve been hijacked by anarchists’
“I believe that we would have buildings on fire. I truly do,” [Sgt. Brent Maxey] replied. He continued, “The people that have been coming out to the justice center and to the police precincts, they want to abolish the police…They’re basically trying to bankrupt the Portland Police Bureau. I think if we didn’t respond to these things I think that we would have buildings on fire.” As for what Sgt. Maxey sees as the solution to this ongoing situation, he says it has to be about conversations rather than screaming matches. He describes one incident where someone shouted something vulgar at him. He engaged the person and they wound up speaking for 90 minutes. He said that at the end they didn’t agree but they both shook hands and he felt like there was some mutual understanding. “All I see anymore is screaming. We go out and nobody is interested in a dialogue,” he said. He added, “If I do find somebody who wants to talk, other people come and shut them down.” At this point I would just interject that there are reasons the woke won’t debate people, including the officers they are protesting. As James Lindsay put it, “Conversation and debate are part of our game, and they are not part of their game.” Their game, in the case of the Portland protests, is tactics of conflict and “direct action.” Conversation is counter to that goal.
More: Andy Ngo tweets a link to the following video, in which veteran journalist Lisa Balick of Portland CBS affiliate KOIN 6 “reports what happened yesterday when a BLM mob beat Adam Haner unconscious in downtown after attacking his partner. Straight news like this is rare. Most media in Portland have systematically failed or misled the public:”
h/t Ed


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--NY, NJ, CT add Alaska, Delaware to mandatory quarantine list

NEW YORK ( WABC ) — New York , New Jersey and Connecticut have added two states back to the list of areas from which travelers are required to quarantine for 14 days .
Alaska , which was removed last week , and Delaware , which has been added and removed several times , are back on the Tri-State Travel Advisory , which now stands at 33 states and two territories .
New York plans to levy a $ 2,000 fine against certain travelers who leave airports in the state without submitting a form that says where they are arriving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ New York State is moving forward in the face of a continuing crisis throughout the nation and around the world , ” Cuomo said .
‘ We ’ ve gone from one of the nation ’ s worst infection rates to one of its best and have an infection rate below 1 % for the 11th straight day , but that ’ s no excuse for getting complacent as we add two more states to our travel advisory .
Our success in this fight is determined , more than anything , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in daily life — washing our hands , properly social distancing and wearing masks — and by the willingness of local governments to be competent partners and to enforce state guidance .
We continue to move in the right direction , but it ’ s up to all of us to slow the spread and stay safe.
” There are currently 33 states and two territories on the list , including : –Alabama –Alaska –Arkansas –Arizona –California –Delaware –Florida –Georgia –Hawaii –Iowa –Idaho –Illinois –Indiana –Kansas –Kentucky –Louisiana –Maryland –Minnesota –Missouri –Mississippi –Montana @ @ @ @ @ @ @ –Puerto Rico –South Carolina –South Dakota –Tennessee –Texas –Utah –Virginia –Virgin Islands –Wisconsin

NEW YORK (WABC) — New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have added two states back to the list of areas from which travelers are required to quarantine for 14 days.
Alaska, which was removed last week, and Delaware, which has been added and removed several times, are back on the Tri-State Travel Advisory, which now stands at 33 states and two territories.
New York plans to levy a $2,000 fine against certain travelers who leave airports in the state without submitting a form that says where they are arriving from and where they’re going.
…
“New York State is moving forward in the face of a continuing crisis throughout the nation and around the world,” Cuomo said. ‘We’ve gone from one of the nation’s worst infection rates to one of its best and have an infection rate below 1% for the 11th straight day, but that’s no excuse for getting complacent as we add two more states to our travel advisory. Our success in this fight is determined, more than anything, by the actions each of us takes in daily life — washing our hands, properly social distancing and wearing masks — and by the willingness of local governments to be competent partners and to enforce state guidance. We continue to move in the right direction, but it’s up to all of us to slow the spread and stay safe.”
There are currently 33 states and two territories on the list, including:
–Alabama
–Alaska
–Arkansas
–Arizona
–California
–Delaware
–Florida
–Georgia
–Hawaii
–Iowa
–Idaho
–Illinois
–Indiana
–Kansas
–Kentucky
–Louisiana
–Maryland
–Minnesota
–Missouri
–Mississippi
–Montana
–North Carolina
–North Dakota
–Nebraska
–Nevada
–Oklahoma
–Puerto Rico
–South Carolina
–South Dakota
–Tennessee
–Texas
–Utah
–Virginia
–Virgin Islands
–Wisconsin
…
…


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Coup in Mali right now. Military arrests President and PM

“ We can tell you that the president and the prime minister are under our control , ” the leader @ @ @ @ @ told AFP .
A government source later confirmed that Keita and Cisse were in the @ @ @ @ @ ” .
The soldiers took up arms in the garrison town of Kati and detained @ @ @ @ @ fears of a coup after several months of anti-government demonstrations calling for the president ’ @ @ @ @ @ said soldiers had surrounded Keita ’ s private residence .

“We can tell you that the president and the prime minister are under our control,” the leader, who requested anonymity, told AFP.
A government source later confirmed that Keita and Cisse were in the hands of “rebel soldiers”.
The soldiers took up arms in the garrison town of Kati and detained senior military officers, sparking fears of a coup after several months of anti-government demonstrations calling for the president’s resignation. Witnesses later said soldiers had surrounded Keita’s private residence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Nvidia hurdles $300 billion market cap, which Intel hasn’t topped since the dot-com bust

Nvidia Corp. is worth more than $ 300 billion for the first time as 2020 continues to be a watershed @ @ @ @ @ for companies not named Intel Corp .
The $ 300 billion level is a tough @ @ @ @ @ which last saw a $ 300 billion market cap back in November 2000 as the @ @ @ @ @ full swing .
On Monday , Intel ’ s cap stood at $ 208.10 billion @ @ @ @ @ AMD logged its own market cap milestone recently , closing above a $ 100 billion @ @ @ @ @ earlier this month .

www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-hurdles-300-billion-market-cap-which-intel-hasnt-topped-since-the-dot-com-bust-2020-08-17
Nvidia Corp. is worth more than $300 billion for the first time as 2020 continues to be a watershed year in the semiconductor industry for companies not named Intel Corp.
The $300 billion level is a tough one even for Intel, which last saw a $300 billion market cap back in November 2000 as the dot.com bubble burst was in full swing. On Monday, Intel’s cap stood at $208.10 billion.
For its part, AMD logged its own market cap milestone recently, closing above a $100 billion valuation for the first time earlier this month.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Australia mandating COVID-19 vaccinations with specialized exemptions

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison says coronavirus vaccine will be `` mandatory , '' except for those who have a @ @ @

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison says coronavirus vaccine will be "mandatory," except for those who have a medical exemption t.co/F3D6AflJwv
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) August 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--NZ postpones Elections due to new outbreak – exactly 10 days after just declaring itself Covid-free!

New Zealand is postponing its upcoming national election on account of a mysterious outbreak of COVID-19 in Auckland , the nation ’ s largest city , which has been under mandatory lockdown since Thursday .
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Monday that the election would be moved from September 19 to October 17 — and vowed that the date would not be moved again .
There are , as of Monday , 58 cases in the Auckland cluster , which ended a streak of more than 100 days without any known cases of community transmission in the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is happening in most other countries — or most American states — it has been worrisome for New Zealand authorities , who have not been able to identify the source of the outbreak .
And cases have continued to turn up since the lockdown began in Auckland , which is home to about 1.7 million people .
Ardern said the election delay was necessary to give the country ’ s Electoral Commission more time to prepare safety measures amid the new outbreak , to ensure maximum turnout , and to give political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also appears to have been broad support for the move within the country , both among political parties and voters , and particularly in Auckland .

New Zealand is postponing its upcoming national election on account of a mysterious outbreak of COVID-19 in Auckland, the nation’s largest city, which has been under mandatory lockdown since Thursday. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Monday that the election would be moved from September 19 to October 17 — and vowed that the date would not be moved again.
There are, as of Monday, 58 cases in the Auckland cluster, which ended a streak of more than 100 days without any known cases of community transmission in the country. While the outbreak is small compared to what is happening in most other countries — or most American states — it has been worrisome for New Zealand authorities, who have not been able to identify the source of the outbreak. And cases have continued to turn up since the lockdown began in Auckland, which is home to about 1.7 million people.
Ardern said the election delay was necessary to give the country’s Electoral Commission more time to prepare safety measures amid the new outbreak, to ensure maximum turnout, and to give political parties more opportunity to campaign. There also appears to have been broad support for the move within the country, both among political parties and voters, and particularly in Auckland.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Trump Promises WI Sheriffs that he’ll never let them down!

Sheriff ’ s are our last resort .
You ’ ll never hear a dem saying this !
See the @ @ @ @ @ of Trump ’ s .
Dems want to defund the police so they can have @ @ @ @ @ a natl police force .
Sheriffs are our last stand .
Responsible only to the @ @ @ @ @

19 min in
Sheriff’s are our last resort. You’ll never hear a dem saying this!
See the importance in that simple sentence of Trump’s.
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Dems want to defund the police so they can have control of the police, a natl police force.
Sheriffs are our last stand. Responsible only to the people who elected them.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--California Discovers When the Wind Don’t Blow, and sun Don’t Shine, LIGHTS OUT!

Even California ’ s wokest governor EVER , Gov .
Noisome , realized what a failure wind and solar are .
California Gov .
Gavin Newsom said Monday that the state had to “ sober up ” about the fact that renewable energy sources had failed to provide enough power for the state at peak demand , and needed “ backup ” and “ insurance ” from other sources .
Newsom addressed journalists and the public in the midst of ongoing electricity blackouts that began on Friday , as hundreds of thousands of Pacific Gas & Electric ( PG & @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California lost power .
There is currently high demand for electricity across the state , as the entire West Coast has been hit by a heat wave and record-breaking temperatures .
One reason the state lacked power , officials admitted , was its over-reliance on “ renewables ” — i.e .
wind and solar power .
There was not enough wind to keep turbines going , Newsom said , and cloud cover and nightfall restricted solar power .
And California ’ s overtaxed electric rate payers are on the hook for BILLIONS to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The electric rates in California are almost double those states without much wind and solar .
www.breitbart.com/environment/20…rgy-flaws/

Even California’s wokest governor EVER, Gov. Noisome, realized what a failure wind and solar are.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that the state had to “sober up” about the fact that renewable energy sources had failed to provide enough power for the state at peak demand, and needed “backup” and “insurance” from other sources.
Newsom addressed journalists and the public in the midst of ongoing electricity blackouts that began on Friday, as hundreds of thousands of Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) customers in northern and central California lost power.
There is currently high demand for electricity across the state, as the entire West Coast has been hit by a heat wave and record-breaking temperatures.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
One reason the state lacked power, officials admitted, was its over-reliance on “renewables” — i.e. wind and solar power.
There was not enough wind to keep turbines going, Newsom said, and cloud cover and nightfall restricted solar power.
And California’s overtaxed electric rate payers are on the hook for BILLIONS to pay for failed windfarms and solar panels. The electric rates in California are almost double those states without much wind and solar.
www.breitbart.com/environment/20…rgy-flaws/
h/t Natura Naturans


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Here’s the Communist Joe Biden ad That Nobody Asked for… PERIOD!

Chris Donaldson from Trending Politics reports , The Biden campaign has rolled out a new campaign ad designed to exploit @ @ @ @ @ over the coronavirus and it is a preview of the authoritarianism that will be imposed @ @ @ @ @ steal the election .

Chris Donaldson from Trending Politics reports, The Biden campaign has rolled out a new campaign ad designed to exploit the current state of fear over the coronavirus and it is a preview of the authoritarianism that will be imposed on America if the Dems steal the election.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
trendingpolitics.com/biden-ca…


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--75,000 Airline Workers Warned of Job Cuts! High Unemployment and Gig Jobs are Permanent

This is the euphoria before the madness .
The willfully blind .
The stream of delusion… Any other ways to put it ?
..
Regardless , we are in a time in which nothing makes sense and more have agreed with that but have simply suggested that it ’ s ok cause fed is my papa .
Is that really what people are putting their savings into ?
!
The economic engine is all about the consumer .
Americans must buy stuff .
Lots of stuff .
Without ever increasing expansion of debt on all levels , there is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
People need to be working because they need the disposable income to spend .
If the employment situation is not optimal , the economy will suffer .
It ’ s a simple equation .
That ’ s why there ’ s such an argument over the government stimulus .
They know exactly what the economy needs .
Reasons ( NOT ) To Be Cheerful Lumber prices go through the roof on high demand , short supply in Galveston County | Local News | The Daily News Struggling Farmers Work With Overwhelmed Food @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Charitable Trusts Novogratz Says Stock-Market Bubble Will Probably Pop If Joe Biden Wins Election – Bloomberg California wealth tax could become first of its kind in US under new proposal – SFChronicle.com

This is the euphoria before the madness. The willfully blind. The stream of delusion… Any other ways to put it?.. Regardless, we are in a time in which nothing makes sense and more have agreed with that but have simply suggested that it’s ok cause fed is my papa. Is that really what people are putting their savings into?!
The economic engine is all about the consumer. Americans must buy stuff. Lots of stuff. Without ever increasing expansion of debt on all levels, there is no possible way the economy can be recovered. People need to be working because they need the disposable income to spend. If the employment situation is not optimal, the economy will suffer. It’s a simple equation. That’s why there’s such an argument over the government stimulus. They know exactly what the economy needs.
bfmC612.jpg (964×529)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC612.jpg?itok=69c8UC1y
xau_graphic_34.png (403×479)
www.goldmoney.com/images/media/Images/Articles/Tutorials/xau_graphic_34.png
Reasons (NOT) To Be Cheerful
www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/reasons-not-to-be-cheerful/
Coronavirus: More job losses loom as airlines industry struggles
www.cnbc.com/2020/08/16/a-flood-of-job-losses-looms-as-airlines-industry-struggle-in-coronavirus-pandemic.html
Zillow 2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report – Zillow Research
www.zillow.com/research/2020-urb-suburb-market-report-27712/
Lumber prices go through the roof on high demand, short supply in Galveston County | Local News | The Daily News
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.galvnews.com/news/free/article_457bb5f1-ec84-550f-8505-9a2f834163ae.html
bfm21C3.jpg (936×500)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm21C3.jpg?itok=UFlj91AM
Struggling Farmers Work With Overwhelmed Food Banks to Stay Afloat | The Pew Charitable Trusts
www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/08/13/struggling-farmers-work-with-overwhelmed-food-banks-to-stay-afloat
DXY net shorts_0.jpg (1280×691)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/DXY%20net%20shorts_0.jpg?itok=NpvYJB3L
Novogratz Says Stock-Market Bubble Will Probably Pop If Joe Biden Wins Election – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-14/novogratz-says-stock-market-bubble-will-likely-pop-if-biden-wins
California wealth tax could become first of its kind in US under new proposal – SFChronicle.com
www.sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/California-lawmakers-propose-a-15482011.php
PBOC Adds Cash to Ease Liquidity Stress with Rate Unchanged – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-17/china-pumps-cash-into-banking-system-to-ease-liquidity-stress?srnd=fixed-income


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--This Dr. tells you about the upcoming COVID-19 vaccine and why we should be talking about it NOW!

No hyperbole , no drama , just lays out the facts from a Dr. ’ s perspective .
We need @ @ @ @ @ ’ s coming down the pike .
Just 20 minutes .
All you need to @ @ @ @ @ She lays it all out succinctly .

No hyperbole, no drama, just lays out the facts from a Dr.’s perspective. We need to really think about what’s coming down the pike.
Just 20 minutes. All you need to spare is 20 minutes. She lays it all out succinctly.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Just Passing Through


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--APPLE first company to reach $2 trillion market cap…  Stock market would be in red without handful o

APPLE first company to reach $2 trillion market cap…  Stock market would be in red without handful of familiar names

• Apple hit a market cap of $ 2 trillion , doubling in valuation in just over two years .
• It ’ s the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a $ 2 trillion market cap .
• Apple was also the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a $ 1 trillion market cap .
Apple hit a market cap of $ 2 trillion Wednesday , doubling in valuation in just over two years to become the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach the milestone .
Based on a share count of more than 4.275 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 a.m .
ET , when its price rose to $ 467.77 .
However , Apple fell below the $ 2 trillion mark as the day moved on , and shares closed at $ 462.83 , giving it a market cap of about $ 1.98 trillion .
Apple first reached a $ 1 trillion market cap on Aug. 2 , 2018 .
Wall Street has largely expected the iPhone maker to become the first to surpass $ 2 trillion .
On July 31 , Apple passed the state oil giant Saudi Aramco to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ publicly traded company .
Five hundred companies make up Wall Street ’ s most widely used measure of the stock market ’ s performance : the Standard & Poor ’ s 500-stock index .
If it were not for just six of them , the benchmark would be down this year .
That ’ s the bad news .
The good news is that thanks to these six highflying stocks – including Apple , which on Wednesday became the first company to be valued at $ 2 trillion – the S & P @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to gain almost 5 percent and set a record .
Along with Apple , the overachievers – Facebook , Amazon , Netflix , Microsoft and Google ’ s parent , Alphabet – are household names that have leveraged digital expertise to prosper amid the new , socially distanced reality .
Through Tuesday , these six stocks collectively were up more than 43 percent this year , while the rest of the companies in the index together lost about 4 percent .
“ These are sound companies that have been able to grow their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prominent investment strategist with Yardeni Research , said of the big tech stocks .
“ They ’ ve benefited from delivering goods and services in the pandemic .
These are the companies at the very epicenter of booming demand .
”

Apple hit a market cap of $2 trillion, doubling in valuation in just over two years.
It’s the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a $2 trillion market cap.
Apple was also the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a $1 trillion market cap.
Apple hit a market cap of $2 trillion Wednesday, doubling in valuation in just over two years to become the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach the milestone.
Based on a share count of more than 4.275 billion, Apple broke the barrier just before 11 a.m. ET, when its price rose to $467.77. However, Apple fell below the $2 trillion mark as the day moved on, and shares closed at $462.83, giving it a market cap of about $1.98 trillion.
Apple first reached a $1 trillion market cap on Aug. 2, 2018. Wall Street has largely expected the iPhone maker to become the first to surpass $2 trillion. On July 31, Apple passed the state oil giant Saudi Aramco to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company.
www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/apple-reaches-2-trillion-market-cap.html
Five hundred companies make up Wall Street’s most widely used measure of the stock market’s performance: the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. If it were not for just six of them, the benchmark would be down this year.
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That’s the bad news. The good news is that thanks to these six highflying stocks – including Apple, which on Wednesday became the first company to be valued at $2 trillion – the S&P 500 has powered through the coronavirus pandemic to gain almost 5 percent and set a record.
Along with Apple, the overachievers – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Google’s parent, Alphabet – are household names that have leveraged digital expertise to prosper amid the new, socially distanced reality. Through Tuesday, these six stocks collectively were up more than 43 percent this year, while the rest of the companies in the index together lost about 4 percent.
“These are sound companies that have been able to grow their earnings,” Ed Yardeni, a prominent investment strategist with Yardeni Research, said of the big tech stocks. “They’ve benefited from delivering goods and services in the pandemic. These are the companies at the very epicenter of booming demand.”
www.thehour.com/business/article/Rising-stock-market-would-be-in-the-red-without-a-15496648.php


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--Egon von Greyerz: As the crash nears, these massively undervalued gold stocks are set to rally

Egon von Greyerz predicts an economic destruction of markets and asset values and a major wealth transfer and tell ’ s The Capital Network ’ s Executive Director Lelde Smits who stands to loose and gain the most .
Egon von Greyerz specialises in wealth management and wealth preservation for high net worth individuals .
He ’ s the founder and managing director of Matterhorn Asset Management , a Swiss company that allows individuals to store their wealth in physical gold and silver .
In the interview Lelde asks Egon about his gloomy predictions , stating recently that , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that there will be “ massive suffering to bring about a sound financial system ” .
Egon says , “ This is the punishment that the world must go through .
Many will suffer and many will die prematurely as a result of poverty , famine , disease , and wars .
The scale of this devastation will be multiples of the Coronavirus.
” Egon von Greyerz is founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG & GoldSwitzerland .
Since the 1990s Egon von Greyerz has been actively involved with financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asset allocation consultancy for private family funds .
This led to the creation of Matterhorn Asset Management , an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles .
MAM is part of the Aquila Group , Switzerland ’ s largest independent asset management group .
Von Greyerz makes regular media appearances on CNBC , BBC , etc .
and publishes articles on the world economy and wealth preservation .

TCNTV, Released on 8/19/20
Egon von Greyerz predicts an economic destruction of markets and asset values and a major wealth transfer and tell’s The Capital Network’s Executive Director Lelde Smits who stands to loose and gain the most. Egon von Greyerz specialises in wealth management and wealth preservation for high net worth individuals. He’s the founder and managing director of Matterhorn Asset Management, a Swiss company that allows individuals to store their wealth in physical gold and silver.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the interview Lelde asks Egon about his gloomy predictions, stating recently that, “The world needs a forest fire” and that there will be “massive suffering to bring about a sound financial system”. Egon says, “This is the punishment that the world must go through. Many will suffer and many will die prematurely as a result of poverty, famine, disease, and wars. The scale of this devastation will be multiples of the Coronavirus.”
Egon von Greyerz is founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG & GoldSwitzerland. Since the 1990s Egon von Greyerz has been actively involved with financial investment activities including mergers and acquisitions and asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of Matterhorn Asset Management, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles. MAM is part of the Aquila Group, Switzerland’s largest independent asset management group. Von Greyerz makes regular media appearances on CNBC, BBC, etc. and publishes articles on the world economy and wealth preservation.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--Flu Vaccine Now Required For All Massachusetts Students

BOSTON ( CBS ) — All students in Massachusetts will be required to get the flu vaccine before the end @ @ @ @ @ public health officials made the announcement Wednesday , citing the importance of reducing flu-related illnesses @ @ @ @ @ “ Influenza immunization will be required for all children 6 months of age or older @ @ @ @ @ care , pre-school , kindergarten , K-12 , and colleges and universities , ” the @ @ @ @ @ said in a statement .

BOSTON (CBS) — All students in Massachusetts will be required to get the flu vaccine before the end of the year. State public health officials made the announcement Wednesday, citing the importance of reducing flu-related illnesses amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“Influenza immunization will be required for all children 6 months of age or older who are attending Massachusetts child care, pre-school, kindergarten, K-12, and colleges and universities,” the Massachusetts Department of Public Health said in a statement.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
boston.cbslocal.com/2020/08/19/flu-vaccine-massachusetts-students-shot-requirement/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--How Fear and Uncertainty Drives Demand for Gold

Even those in the nonfinancial media have noticed the skyrocketing price of gold this year .
Some partially identify , but don ’ t quite understand , some of the many ( and more measurable ) intermediary effects in the chain of causation such as a “ weakened US dollar ” and “ low bond yields.
” Those in the financial press add to these factors ones like “ central bank reserves ” management , along with mining production and “ jewelry and industrial demand.
” One mainstream headline surprisingly hit closest to the mark regarding the few ( and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fear and Cheap Money Send Gold Price Soaring.
” But the chief cause for this and all major rises in gold prices is not “ fear and ” but fear of cheap money .
In a 2013 interview titled “ What Is Key for the Price Formation of Gold ?
, ” Robert Blumen makes the following seven key points , not only for then , but for today and the foreseeable ( fiat money ) future : • “ There might be a statistical correlation between , for example , a net @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or lower ) prices .
If someone has a statistical model that works , that is great .
But it ’ s not causal .
But it seems to me that even if someone has discovered correlations like that , they will be coincident with the price , rather than predictive .
In order to forecast the price , you need an indicator that moves in advance of the price.
” • “ [ There ] is [ a ] vast amount of brainpower that goes into quantifying gold flows into market segments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coins , and funds .
These quantities may be interesting for some purposes , but they ’ re not really that relevant if what you ’ re trying to do is understand the gold price , because there is not a connection between quantities and price in the way that most people think there is.
” • “ The gold market is not segregated into one market for the gold that was mined this year and another market for gold that was mined in past years .
The buyer doesn ’ t care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mined ounce of gold or buying from somebody who had purchased gold that was mined 100 years ago .
All of the buyers are competing to buy and all of the sellers are competing to sell.
” • “ Gold is primarily an asset .
It is true that a small amount of gold is produced and a very small amount of gold is destroyed in industrial uses .
But the stock to annual production ratio is in the 50 to 100:1 range .
Nearly all the gold in the world that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time is held in some form.
” • “ In an asset market , consumption and production do not constrain the price .
The bidding process is about who has the greatest economic motivation to hold each unit of the good .
The pricing process is primarily an auction over the existing stocks of the asset .
Whoever values the asset the most will end up owning it , and those who value it less will own something else instead .
And that , in in my view , is the way to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most of the market research about gold deals with exchange demand , which has the advantage that you can measure it .
But reservation demand is far more relevant to the price .
The profile of reservation demand among people who own gold is the main determinant of the gold price from the supply side….Reservation demand is where you demand something by holding onto it rather than selling it….I have reservation demand at the moment for an auto , a dining room table , a couch , a mobile phone , and so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold price is set by investor preferences , which can not be measured directly .
But I think that we understand the main factors in the world that influence investor preferences in relation to gold .
These factors are the growth rate of money supply , the volume and quality of debt , political uncertainty , confiscation risk , and the attractiveness ( or lack thereof ) of other possible assets.
” The 2015 book Austrian School for Investors : Austrian Investing between Inflation and Deflation serves as an important complement to Blumen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The four authors are not just Austrians in an economic sense , but literal Austrians from the country of the same name .
What follows are seven key points from the “ Precious Metals ” section of chapter 9 on “ Austrian Investment Practice ” : • “ The marginal utility of gold declines at a slower rate than that of other goods .
It is owing to this superior characteristic that gold and silver enjoy their monetary status , and not their supposed scarcity .
Their high marketability represents also their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this reason , central banks hold gold as a currency reserve , and not real estate , artworks or commodities.
” • “ Most analysts assert that gold has the characteristics of an inflation hedge .
There are , however , also critical voices .
They opine that there is no statistical correlation between gold prices and price inflation rates , and conclude that the inflation hedge notion is thus a myth .
We examined this question and drew the following conclusion : gold does not correlate with the rate of inflation as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change of the inflation rate .
• “ If gold is already weakening in a period of disinflation , it must be even weaker in a period of deflation .
This is however a fallacy .
The trend of gold in a deflationary environment has barely been analyzed , not least because there exist only very few examples of deflationary periods….In a period of pronounced deflation , [ not only do ] government budgets become overstretched [ but ] trust in the financial system and paper currencies declines , while gold gains in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • “ Akin to an hourglass , liquidity in the financial system gradually flows downward as the willingness to take risks declines .
At the very bottom is gold .
Due to general skepticism , the circulation of gold declines as it is increasingly hoarded .
The degree of hoarding is always proportional to the confidence in government and its currency.
” • “ Gold exhibits a very low correlation with most other asset classes , especially stocks and bonds.
” The answer to the question of why gold is skyrocketing is “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money supply has been subject to a number of quantitative easing ( QE ) programs since 2008 , pushing money supply growth ever higher .
All this suggests that “ fear of cheap money ” really is a primary factor in pushing up demand for gold .
Such fear increases in times of economic turmoil .
Such turmoil is almost always caused , and made worse , by government intervention .
In 2020 that includes , not just more QE , but also the chaotic government responses to the coronavirus and civil unrest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or investors to agree on all this any time soon .
I will end with a quote from an article by economist Bob Murphy : Darren Brady Nelson is an Austrian School economist and evangelion as well as C.S .
Lewis and Hillsong style Christian .
He is currently the Chief Economist at LibertyWorks in Brisbane , QLD , Australia and Associate Scholar of the Center for Freedom and Prosperity in Washington , DC .
He is also a regular commentator in the Australian and American print , radio , and TV media @

by Darren Brady Nelson via Mises
Even those in the nonfinancial media have noticed the skyrocketing price of gold this year. Some partially identify, but don’t quite understand, some of the many (and more measurable) intermediary effects in the chain of causation such as a “weakened US dollar” and “low bond yields.” Those in the financial press add to these factors ones like “central bank reserves” management, along with mining production and “jewelry and industrial demand.” One mainstream headline surprisingly hit closest to the mark regarding the few (and less measurable) underlying causes: “Fear and Cheap Money Send Gold Price Soaring.”
But the chief cause for this and all major rises in gold prices is not “fear and” but fear of cheap money.
In a 2013 interview titled “What Is Key for the Price Formation of Gold?,” Robert Blumen makes the following seven key points, not only for then, but for today and the foreseeable (fiat money) future:
“There might be a statistical correlation between, for example, a net inflow into one sector and higher (or lower) prices. If someone has a statistical model that works, that is great. But it’s not causal. But it seems to me that even if someone has discovered correlations like that, they will be coincident with the price, rather than predictive. In order to forecast the price, you need an indicator that moves in advance of the price.”
“[There] is [a] vast amount of brainpower that goes into quantifying gold flows into market segments, such as industry, jewelry, coins, and funds. These quantities may be interesting for some purposes, but they’re not really that relevant if what you’re trying to do is understand the gold price, because there is not a connection between quantities and price in the way that most people think there is.”
“The gold market is not segregated into one market for the gold that was mined this year and another market for gold that was mined in past years. The buyer doesn’t care whether he’s buying a newly mined ounce of gold or buying from somebody who had purchased gold that was mined 100 years ago. All of the buyers are competing to buy and all of the sellers are competing to sell.”
“Gold is primarily an asset. It is true that a small amount of gold is produced and a very small amount of gold is destroyed in industrial uses. But the stock to annual production ratio is in the 50 to 100:1 range. Nearly all the gold in the world that has ever been produced since the beginning of time is held in some form.”
“In an asset market, consumption and production do not constrain the price. The bidding process is about who has the greatest economic motivation to hold each unit of the good. The pricing process is primarily an auction over the existing stocks of the asset. Whoever values the asset the most will end up owning it, and those who value it less will own something else instead. And that, in in my view, is the way to understand gold price formation.”
“Most of the market research about gold deals with exchange demand, which has the advantage that you can measure it. But reservation demand is far more relevant to the price. The profile of reservation demand among people who own gold is the main determinant of the gold price from the supply side….Reservation demand is where you demand something by holding onto it rather than selling it….I have reservation demand at the moment for an auto, a dining room table, a couch, a mobile phone, and so forth.”
Thus: “The gold price is set by investor preferences, which cannot be measured directly. But I think that we understand the main factors in the world that influence investor preferences in relation to gold. These factors are the growth rate of money supply, the volume and quality of debt, political uncertainty, confiscation risk, and the attractiveness (or lack thereof) of other possible assets.”
The 2015 book Austrian School for Investors: Austrian Investing between Inflation and Deflation serves as an important complement to Blumen’s work on gold price formation. The four authors are not just Austrians in an economic sense, but literal Austrians from the country of the same name. What follows are seven key points from the “Precious Metals” section of chapter 9 on “Austrian Investment Practice”:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“The marginal utility of gold declines at a slower rate than that of other goods. It is owing to this superior characteristic that gold and silver enjoy their monetary status, and not their supposed scarcity. Their high marketability represents also their decisive advantage over other stores of value….For this reason, central banks hold gold as a currency reserve, and not real estate, artworks or commodities.”
“Most analysts assert that gold has the characteristics of an inflation hedge. There are, however, also critical voices. They opine that there is no statistical correlation between gold prices and price inflation rates, and conclude that the inflation hedge notion is thus a myth. We examined this question and drew the following conclusion: gold does not correlate with the rate of inflation as such, but with the rate of change of the inflation rate.
“If gold is already weakening in a period of disinflation, it must be even weaker in a period of deflation. This is however a fallacy. The trend of gold in a deflationary environment has barely been analyzed, not least because there exist only very few examples of deflationary periods….In a period of pronounced deflation, [not only do] government budgets become overstretched [but] trust in the financial system and paper currencies declines, while gold gains in importance due its top-notch credit quality.”
“Akin to an hourglass, liquidity in the financial system gradually flows downward as the willingness to take risks declines. At the very bottom is gold. Due to general skepticism, the circulation of gold declines as it is increasingly hoarded. The degree of hoarding is always proportional to the confidence in government and its currency.”
“Gold exhibits a very low correlation with most other asset classes, especially stocks and bonds.”
The answer to the question of why gold is skyrocketing is “follow the money printing.” US M0 money supply has been subject to a number of quantitative easing (QE) programs since 2008, pushing money supply growth ever higher.
All this suggests that “fear of cheap money” really is a primary factor in pushing up demand for gold. Such fear increases in times of economic turmoil. Such turmoil is almost always caused, and made worse, by government intervention. In 2020 that includes, not just more QE, but also the chaotic government responses to the coronavirus and civil unrest. But don’t expect economists or investors to agree on all this any time soon. I will end with a quote from an article by economist Bob Murphy:
There’s an old joke that the price of gold is understood by exactly two people in the entire world. They both work for the Bank of England and they disagree.
Author:
Contact Darren Brady Nelson
Darren Brady Nelson is an Austrian School economist and evangelion as well as C.S. Lewis and Hillsong style Christian. He is currently the Chief Economist at LibertyWorks in Brisbane, QLD, Australia and Associate Scholar of the Center for Freedom and Prosperity in Washington, DC. He is also a regular commentator in the Australian and American print, radio, and TV media.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--Russia Complies 100% With OPEC+ Production Cut Quota

Russia is complying 100 % with the OPEC+ production cut quota , according to Alexander Novak , who spoke to Rossiya-24 television on Wednesday , Russian news agency Tass reported .
“ We are at a high level .
In July , we fulfilled 97 % of our level .
This is a high figure for us .
We have attained 100 % in August .
As of today , we are fulfilling 100 % of the obligations we assumed in August , ” Novak claimed .
Novak also claimed that the oil market is close to balancing itself .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister Prince Abdulaziz said that global oil demand would recover by the end of the year .
According to Novak , OPEC+ has “ practically reached the results ” that it set out to reach in balancing the market , with oil demand recovering to 90 % of the pre-covid-19 level .
The balancing was , in part , attributed to supply being a million barrels per day lower than demand , Novak said .
While Novak ’ s words were positive for the market , he went further to say that OPEC+ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if things start to look better—particularly if there turns out to be no second wave of the coronavirus .
“ We will have every opportunity to make decisions , namely if the market will be overheating , we will have the opportunity to reduce quotas faster , ” Novak added .
Even though the market is surely eyeing a quicker rebalancing as a favorable scenario , it may very well view Novak ’ s comments about relaxing the group ’ s production cuts sooner than anticipated as bearish .
Oil prices have remained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ despite the stellar performance of OPEC+ because oil demand has not yet snapped back to pre-covid 19 levels .
Without that resurgence of demand that remains stymied due to the coronavirus , the market will continue to eye any OPEC+ pullback with a healthy dose of skepticism .

By Julianne Geiger
Russia is complying 100% with the OPEC+ production cut quota, according to Alexander Novak, who spoke to Rossiya-24 television on Wednesday, Russian news agency Tass reported.
“We are at a high level. In July, we fulfilled 97% of our level. This is a high figure for us. We have attained 100% in August. As of today, we are fulfilling 100% of the obligations we assumed in August,” Novak claimed.
Novak also claimed that the oil market is close to balancing itself. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz said that global oil demand would recover by the end of the year.
According to Novak, OPEC+ has “practically reached the results” that it set out to reach in balancing the market, with oil demand recovering to 90% of the pre-covid-19 level.
The balancing was, in part, attributed to supply being a million barrels per day lower than demand, Novak said.
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While Novak’s words were positive for the market, he went further to say that OPEC+ could relax its cuts earlier than planned if things start to look better—particularly if there turns out to be no second wave of the coronavirus.
“We will have every opportunity to make decisions, namely if the market will be overheating, we will have the opportunity to reduce quotas faster,” Novak added.
Even though the market is surely eyeing a quicker rebalancing as a favorable scenario, it may very well view Novak’s comments about relaxing the group’s production cuts sooner than anticipated as bearish.
Oil prices have remained rangebound over the past month or so despite the stellar performance of OPEC+ because oil demand has not yet snapped back to pre-covid 19 levels. Without that resurgence of demand that remains stymied due to the coronavirus, the market will continue to eye any OPEC+ pullback with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses the latest Fed minutes

Danielle DiMartino Booth spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas @ @ @ @ @ in 2015 to found Money Strong , LLC , an economic consulting firm and launched @ @ @ @ @ is the author of Fed Up : An Insider ’ s Take on Why the @ @ @ @ @ America .
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson , Lufkin & @ @ @ @ @ where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets .
Danielle earned @ @ @ @ @ of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio .
She holds an @ @ @ @ @ Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia @ @

Fox Business, Released on 8/19/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Danielle DiMartino Booth spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong, LLC, an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic newsletter She is the author of Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit Suisse, where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets. Danielle earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-20--Citywide Mass Moderna Vaccine Clinical “Trials“ Under Way In Las Vegas

They are putting flyers on cars , on the doors of businesses , sending flyers in the mail all through @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 Vaccine trial is already underway in Las Vegas .
This isn ’ t a @ @ @ @ @ the beginning of vaccination .
I have a stack of Moderna vaccine trial flyers in @ @ @ @ @ pulled off our vehicles , out of our mailbox .
The amount they have sent @ @ @ @ @ , etc is staggering .

They are putting flyers on cars, on the doors of businesses, sending flyers in the mail all through out Las Vegas. Moderna Covid-19 Vaccine trial is already underway in Las Vegas. This isn’t a “trial.” This is the beginning of vaccination.
I have a stack of Moderna vaccine trial flyers in our living room, all pulled off our vehicles, out of our mailbox.
The amount they have sent out, stuck on cars, etc is staggering.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.abclinicaltrials.com/
www.abclinicaltrials.com/studies/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Mandatory COVID vaccines are coming

Mandatory COVID vaccines are coming

You don ’ t want to take a vaccine that has been rushed to market and which hasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ inert placebo ?
Well , mate , then you aren ’ t travelling or going @ @ @ @

by ratioetlogicae
Full article here.
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You don’t want to take a vaccine that has been rushed to market and which hasn’t undergone any testing against an inert placebo?
Well, mate, then you aren’t travelling or going to restaurants anymore.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--JPMorgan Chase held talks with U.S. Postal Service about installing ATMs in post offices

JPMorgan Chase , the biggest U.S. bank by assets , has held talks with the U.S .
Postal Service about @ @ @ @ @ branches .
“ We had very preliminary conversations with the U.S .
Postal Service several @ @ @ @ @ might look like to lease a small number of spaces to place ATMs to better @ @ @ @ @ , ” said Trish Wexler , a spokeswoman for the bank .

www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/jpmorgan-chase-held-talks-with-us-postal-service-about-installing-atms-in-post-offices.html
JPMorgan Chase, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, has held talks with the U.S. Postal Service about placing ATMs in post office branches.
“We had very preliminary conversations with the U.S. Postal Service several months ago about what it might look like to lease a small number of spaces to place ATMs to better serve some historically underserved communities,” said Trish Wexler, a spokeswoman for the bank.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--VLADIMIR LENIN PROMISED ELECTRICITY — AND DELIVERED

If I were Mexico , I ’ d bring in American companies to build nuclear power plants to sell energy @ @ @ @ @ profits to finance my own power grid .

Hey California! We can avoid a blackout, but you have to turn up your damn thermostat! t.co/UuH8Yr6VFH — Jerry Brown (@JerryBrownGov) August 19, 2020
If I were Mexico, I’d bring in American companies to build nuclear power plants to sell energy to California and use the profits to finance my own power grid.
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h/t SG


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Democrats Still Defending Rioters As “Mostly Peaceful” After Man Dragged Out Of Truck In Portland, B

Democrats Still Defending Rioters As “Mostly Peaceful” After Man Dragged Out Of Truck In Portland, Beaten Nearly To Death

( Natural News ) It has been nearly three full months of daily violence in the streets of Portland , with Antifa and Black Lives Matter ( BLM ) “ protesters ” continuing to ransack businesses , attack innocent bystanders , and even attempt to murder people whom they claim are “ white supremacists.
” Over the weekend , a mob of pasty white liberals and black thugs surrounded a white pickup truck before dragging its driver , a white man , into the street and beating him senseless .
The mob proceeded to rummage through the man ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stand up , they proceeded to slam his head onto the pavement .
At one point while the man was trying to recover , a younger black male rushed over and kicked him square in the head , knocking him unconscious .
Disturbing and extremely graphic footage of the incident from start to finish , and from multiple angles , was uploaded to Twitter by independent journalist Andy Ngo .
It is also available at Brighteon below : Is this poor man still alive ?
We are awaiting reports As you will notice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in sight , just hordes of violent terrorists roaming around obstructing traffic and causing chaos .
And any vehicle that stopped for too long was surrounded and attacked , its drivers and passengers threatened with violence for being “ white supremacists.
” Just prior to the beating incident , the man who quickly became a victim was seen trying to explain to his attackers how and why his vehicle crashed .
He was forced to sit on the pavement and wait while they searched his vehicle for some unknown reason , and was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were finished .
Because he apparently stood up too early , the man was repeatedly beaten , with obvious blood from his head and body pouring out all over the street .
Plenty of bystanders were seen watching or filming the incident , while one black man was seen riding around on a scooter as if nothing was even happening .
Meanwhile , other bystanders were heard shouting and screaming in support of the beating , with the usual cries of “ black lives matter !
” Only one woman was heard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ man , urging those around her with phones to call 911 .
Police later arrived on the scene long after the incident occurred , and proceeded to try to tow away the man ’ s vehicle .
As law enforcement was doing this , the angry mob started screaming that such actions were “ protecting white supremacists , ” even though it was the innocent white man who was beaten by a mob that included angry , violent blacks .
It is not yet clear whether the man who was beaten is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be .
All we know is that he was last seen unconscious as some members of the mob were trying to remove his body from the middle of the intersection .
Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler now openly admits that Antifa and BLM terrorists are attempting to commit murder , and yet nothing is being done to stop it .
In fact , many Democrats are still claiming that the rioting is “ mostly peaceful , ” even though it is clearly not .
So , how much further will this all go before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matters into their own hands ?
“ What it is going to take is a few of these punks getting sent home in body bags by legally armed citizens , and when these punks realize that death awaits them the dynamic will change , ” wrote one Breitbart News commenter .
“ The spineless politicians should take note that justice is coming .
”

by Ethan Huff of Natural News
(Natural News) It has been nearly three full months of daily violence in the streets of Portland, with Antifa and Black Lives Matter (BLM) “protesters” continuing to ransack businesses, attack innocent bystanders, and even attempt to murder people whom they claim are “white supremacists.”
Over the weekend, a mob of pasty white liberals and black thugs surrounded a white pickup truck before dragging its driver, a white man, into the street and beating him senseless. The mob proceeded to rummage through the man’s car, and when he attempted to stand up, they proceeded to slam his head onto the pavement.
At one point while the man was trying to recover, a younger black male rushed over and kicked him square in the head, knocking him unconscious. Disturbing and extremely graphic footage of the incident from start to finish, and from multiple angles, was uploaded to Twitter by independent journalist Andy Ngo. It is also available at Brighteon below:
Is this poor man still alive? We are awaiting reports
As you will notice, there was no law enforcement anywhere in sight, just hordes of violent terrorists roaming around obstructing traffic and causing chaos. And any vehicle that stopped for too long was surrounded and attacked, its drivers and passengers threatened with violence for being “white supremacists.”
Just prior to the beating incident, the man who quickly became a victim was seen trying to explain to his attackers how and why his vehicle crashed. He was forced to sit on the pavement and wait while they searched his vehicle for some unknown reason, and was violently forced to remain until they decided they were finished.
Because he apparently stood up too early, the man was repeatedly beaten, with obvious blood from his head and body pouring out all over the street. Plenty of bystanders were seen watching or filming the incident, while one black man was seen riding around on a scooter as if nothing was even happening.
Meanwhile, other bystanders were heard shouting and screaming in support of the beating, with the usual cries of “black lives matter!” Only one woman was heard actually trying to care for the injured man, urging those around her with phones to call 911.
Police later arrived on the scene long after the incident occurred, and proceeded to try to tow away the man’s vehicle. As law enforcement was doing this, the angry mob started screaming that such actions were “protecting white supremacists,” even though it was the innocent white man who was beaten by a mob that included angry, violent blacks.
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It is not yet clear whether the man who was beaten is still alive, or what his condition might be. All we know is that he was last seen unconscious as some members of the mob were trying to remove his body from the middle of the intersection.
Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler now openly admits that Antifa and BLM terrorists are attempting to commit murder, and yet nothing is being done to stop it. In fact, many Democrats are still claiming that the rioting is “mostly peaceful,” even though it is clearly not.
So, how much further will this all go before decent Americans finally step up and take matters into their own hands?
“What it is going to take is a few of these punks getting sent home in body bags by legally armed citizens, and when these punks realize that death awaits them the dynamic will change,” wrote one Breitbart News commenter. “The spineless politicians should take note that justice is coming.”
Sources for this article include:
Breitbart.com
Brighteon.com
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Trump is Gaining, Biden is Losing: To win, Joe Biden will have to beat Donald Trump and himself.

Ready or not , the 2020 presidential election is upon us .
And the burden is heavy on Democrats this election cycle .
No matter how much liberal Democrats and progressives hate Donald Trump , no matter how poor of a job they feel he has done as president ; whatever Trump ’ s personal foibles : He is still an incumbent president .
Incumbents tend to have an advantage .
And before COVID-19 , Trump was running as an incumbent on a robust economy .
He needs to turn out his base on Election Day , which he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Trump campaign has more money and more help than it had in 2016 : Better organization and a larger mouthpiece .
Republicans have been registering more new voters than Democrats .
Gleeful Democrats in the press and on social media were distracted by the Trump campaign ’ s recent , very public punking by American high school students and Korean pop fans .
Trump turning out only 6,000 people in Tulsa , having to scrap plans to project his rally to an overflow of 100,000 fans who never showed gave the left @ @ @ @

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS:
Ready or not, the 2020 presidential election is upon us. And the burden is heavy on Democrats this election cycle.
No matter how much liberal Democrats and progressives hate Donald Trump, no matter how poor of a job they feel he has done as president; whatever Trump’s personal foibles: He is still an incumbent president.
Incumbents tend to have an advantage. And before COVID-19, Trump was running as an incumbent on a robust economy.
He needs to turn out his base on Election Day, which he was very effective at doing in 2016. The Trump campaign has more money and more help than it had in 2016: Better organization and a larger mouthpiece.
Republicans have been registering more new voters than Democrats.
Gleeful Democrats in the press and on social media were distracted by the Trump campaign’s recent, very public punking by American high school students and Korean pop fans. Trump turning out only 6,000 people in Tulsa, having to scrap plans to project his rally to an overflow of 100,000 fans who never showed gave the left a good laugh.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--GOING POSTAL: The USPS conspiracy theory is the new Russiagate… Twitter Says Viral Mailbox Misinform

GOING POSTAL: The USPS conspiracy theory is the new Russiagate… Twitter Says Viral Mailbox Misinformation Does Not Violate Company’s Policies.

And so influencers took up arms .
There were celebrities from Taylor Swift and Jamie Lee Curtis to Ice-T ; meme accounts like Rex Chapman and the Lincoln Project ; members of media like MSNBC pundit Claire McCaskill ; members of Congress…even Barack Obama .
All hollered that Post Office must be protected at all costs , and including photographs , some dating back to 2016 , of locked mailboxes , unused mail trucks and mail sorting machines in yards with fences .
It was hard not to be reminded of the 2014 photo of ‘ kids in cages ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : post office reforms which led to the reorganization of mailboxes and sorting machines were also enacted by the Obama administration .
But they were largely ignored by the media , because Obama oversaw the Era of No Scandals™ .
It took a Medium blogger to separate fact from fiction .
News outlets were utterly uninterested in finding the truth .
When the Post Office released a statement saying that mail-sorting machines are routinely shifted around to handle different workloads , it was roundly ignored .
Instead , during a Monday morning MSNBC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Louis DeJoy , the Postmaster general .
DeJoy has now been called to testify before a House committee next week .
Perhaps the Democrats needed something else to do besides blocking COVID relief ?
And of course : Twitter Says Viral Mailbox Misinformation Does Not Violate Company ’ s Policies .
I miss the carefree innocent days of the left blaming potential election losses on Diebold and , prior to that , on right-wing media bias .
Related : Eight Times Since 2000 Liberals Claimed An Election Was Stolen Or Rigged .
THIS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ THAN I THOUGHT !
PHOTO : Rioters Destroy Minneapolis Post Office 55406 .
Actually , if you imagine Antifa and Black Lives Matter as working for Trump all along , it kinda makes sense .
.
.
.

via spectator.us:
And so influencers took up arms. There were celebrities from Taylor Swift and Jamie Lee Curtis to Ice-T; meme accounts like Rex Chapman and the Lincoln Project; members of media like MSNBC pundit Claire McCaskill; members of Congress…even Barack Obama. All hollered that Post Office must be protected at all costs, and including photographs, some dating back to 2016, of locked mailboxes, unused mail trucks and mail sorting machines in yards with fences. It was hard not to be reminded of the 2014 photo of ‘kids in cages’ that started circulating in the Trump era: post office reforms which led to the reorganization of mailboxes and sorting machines were also enacted by the Obama administration. But they were largely ignored by the media, because Obama oversaw the Era of No Scandals™. * * * * * * * * * It took a Medium blogger to separate fact from fiction. News outlets were utterly uninterested in finding the truth. When the Post Office released a statement saying that mail-sorting machines are routinely shifted around to handle different workloads, it was roundly ignored. Instead, during a Monday morning MSNBC appearance, Rep. Jim Cooper suggested arresting Louis DeJoy, the Postmaster general. DeJoy has now been called to testify before a House committee next week. Perhaps the Democrats needed something else to do besides blocking COVID relief?
And of course: Twitter Says Viral Mailbox Misinformation Does Not Violate Company’s Policies.
I miss the carefree innocent days of the left blaming potential election losses on Diebold and, prior to that, on right-wing media bias.
Related: Eight Times Since 2000 Liberals Claimed An Election Was Stolen Or Rigged.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
THIS TRUMP VOTE SUPPRESSION CONSPIRACY REACHES EVEN FARTHER THAN I THOUGHT! PHOTO: Rioters Destroy Minneapolis Post Office 55406.
Actually, if you imagine Antifa and Black Lives Matter as working for Trump all along, it kinda makes sense. . . .
h/t Ed


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--CHANGE: Never Trumper Rino Gov. Charlie Baker says Massachusetts will accept Trump plan to extend un

CHANGE: Never Trumper Rino Gov. Charlie Baker says Massachusetts will accept Trump plan to extend unemployment benefits.

Unemployment benefit checks for the more than 500,000 left jobless in Massachusetts amid the coronavirus pandemic could soon be growing $ 400 fatter .
Gov .
Charlie Baker on Tuesday signaled he intends to accept President Trump ’ s plan to boost unemployment benefits .
“ If this program is there and it turns out to be the only thing that ’ s there , I don ’ t think Massachusetts should pass on that , ” he said .
The president signed an executive order Aug. 8 to extend additional benefits of $ 300 or $ 400 per week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — to the unemployed after Congress failed to strike a deal to extend a federally funded $ 600 weekly benefit that expired in July .
Under Trump ’ s plan , states are required to ante up 25 % of the added cost , or $ 100 per claimant in order to access the extra federal benefit dollars — a requirement that has confused cash-strapped states .
Baker said he would have to dip into emergency aid provided in the CARES Act to fund the unemployment extension .
Alternatively , states could count @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekly benefits to meet the requirement — which would reduce the weekly boost to claimants from $ 400 to $ 300 .

Unemployment benefit checks for the more than 500,000 left jobless in Massachusetts amid the coronavirus pandemic could soon be growing $400 fatter.
Gov. Charlie Baker on Tuesday signaled he intends to accept President Trump’s plan to boost unemployment benefits.
“If this program is there and it turns out to be the only thing that’s there, I don’t think Massachusetts should pass on that,” he said.
The president signed an executive order Aug. 8 to extend additional benefits of $300 or $400 per week — depending on which plan governors choose — to the unemployed after Congress failed to strike a deal to extend a federally funded $600 weekly benefit that expired in July.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Under Trump’s plan, states are required to ante up 25% of the added cost, or $100 per claimant in order to access the extra federal benefit dollars — a requirement that has confused cash-strapped states.
Baker said he would have to dip into emergency aid provided in the CARES Act to fund the unemployment extension. Alternatively, states could count the first $100 they pay in weekly benefits to meet the requirement — which would reduce the weekly boost to claimants from $400 to $300.
www.bostonherald.com/2020/08/18/charlie-baker-says-massachusetts-will-accept-trump-plan-to-extend-unemployment-benefits/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Jim Bianco: Is “meaningful” inflation coming?

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research , L.L.C .
Since 1990 Jim ’ s commentaries have @ @ @ @ @ the global economy and financial markets .
Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ a decades long reputation for objective , incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking .
In @ @ @ @ @ Research , Jim ’ s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy , the intersection @ @ @ @ @ the role of government in the economy , fund flows and positioning in financial markets @ @ @ @ @ and Bianco Research , Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research @ @ @ @ @ Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers .
He is a Chartered Market @ @ @ @ @ a member of the Market Technicians Association ( MTA ) .
Jim has a Bachelor @ @ @ @ @ from Marquette University ( 1984 ) and an MBA from Fordham University ( 1989 ) @

Bloomberg, Released on 8/19/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--David Rosenberg: Crashing Real Interest Rates Creating the Best Tailwind for $3500 Gold

Time Stamp References : 1:05 – Comparing liquidity events .
3:55 – Money velocity and the economy .
7:00 – Assessing the stock market .
11:15 – Custom indexes they use .
16:30 – Interest rates and NIRP/ZIRP .
19:00 – Fed to peg at Zero and getting yield .
21:05 – Timing and price targets .
David Rosenberg returns to discuss the current economic environment and how flattened yield curves are promoting liquidity issues .
Credit supply has been contracting , and the velocity of money is also declining .
If money velocity stabilizes were going to get a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is what gold is trying to signal .
David discusses various custom indexes they have created for finding value in today ’ s market .
The Fed is not going to allow interest rates to rise , and that ’ s why long-bonds are still somewhat attractive .
He feels the next one to two years will see gold rise to around $ 3500 .
Their Gold and bond basket has done well for them this year .
Real interest rates are heading negative and adjusted for inflation ; we are already negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plans on keeping rates low for the next three years .
Money velocity will eventually come back and , along with it inflation .
He expects the Fed to weaken interest rates further and expect further weakness with the US Dollar .
David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates , an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020 .
He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto .
Prior to starting his firm , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & strategist .
Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto , he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia .
Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years , was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years , and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey .

Palisade Radio, Released on 8/19/20
Time Stamp References:
1:05 – Comparing liquidity events.
3:55 – Money velocity and the economy.
7:00 – Assessing the stock market.
11:15 – Custom indexes they use.
16:30 – Interest rates and NIRP/ZIRP.
19:00 – Fed to peg at Zero and getting yield.
21:05 – Timing and price targets.
David Rosenberg returns to discuss the current economic environment and how flattened yield curves are promoting liquidity issues. Credit supply has been contracting, and the velocity of money is also declining. If money velocity stabilizes were going to get a lot more inflation, and perhaps that is what gold is trying to signal.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
David discusses various custom indexes they have created for finding value in today’s market. The Fed is not going to allow interest rates to rise, and that’s why long-bonds are still somewhat attractive. He feels the next one to two years will see gold rise to around $3500. Their Gold and bond basket has done well for them this year.
Real interest rates are heading negative and adjusted for inflation; we are already negative across the yield curve. The Fed plans on keeping rates low for the next three years. Money velocity will eventually come back and, along with it inflation. He expects the Fed to weaken interest rates further and expect further weakness with the US Dollar.
David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-19--Jim Rickards: America’s “Bridge Loan” Is Up

A lot of the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic was based on the belief that it would be over quickly .
We saw big , multi-trillion dollar spending bills from March into May .
The Fed took their balance sheet from about $ 3.8 trillion to around $ 7 trillion .
( By the way , I can easily envision some scenarios where it goes to $ 10 trillion ) .
But all that was done as a sort of bridge loan to get us from April to July .
The expectation in April was that when we got @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under control , we could reopen the economy , it would be a V-shaped recovery , and it would all be good before the election .
That hasn ’ t turned out to be the case .
Here we are in mid-August .
The virus has surged in several states , which have increased their restrictions in many cases .
But the relief packages have largely ended .
Congress is debating another bailout package , but there ’ s no consensus .
It may happen .
But as of now , there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans .
And that ’ s important because if you go back to the bridge loan analogy , we ’ re going to need another to keep the economy and stock market propped up if lockdowns continue .
Now we ’ re facing a second wave of layoffs .
A lot of people who would have been laid off in April were kept on the payroll until , say , the end of July .
But there ’ s no more Payroll Protection Plan .
So all of the layoffs that would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in August .
Come September , when we get the August employment report , we may see a real deterioration of employment based on what I ’ m describing .
We also need to be aware of the real possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 infections .
We ’ ve heard a lot about the second wave .
We ’ re seeing huge outbreaks in Los Angeles , for example .
California has gone from about 4,000 fatalities to now over 10,000 fatalities .
It ’ s passed Massachusetts , which was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is sixth , but Texas and Florida are coming up fast , 4th and 5th respectively .
But this isn ’ t a second wave .
It ’ s just an extension of the first .
To see why , let ’ s get into the medical science a bit .
The virus started in Wuhan , China .
But it spread in two directions .
It came east where there was an initial outbreak in California and Washington .
But the virus also went west out of China to Italy .
Why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February and the Chinese essentially own the fashion industry .
So there were tens of thousands of Chinese flying to Milan for Fashion Week .
In Italy , the virus mutated and became more contagious .
Not more lethal .
The death rate didn ’ t go up , but the contagion rate went up .
Deaths increased , but only because the number of infections increased .
The Italian strain , let ’ s call it , then came to New York .
New York was the epicenter , the hotspot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be doing pretty well .
The assumption was that California Governor Gavin Newsom was doing everything right and Governor Andrew Cuomo must have been doing everything wrong .
Cuomo made a lot of mistakes , no question about it , but that wasn ’ t the difference .
The difference was the initial strain in California was less contagious than the one that hit New York .
Now what has happened two months later is that the Italian strain , which hit New York , has spread to the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question of public policy , smart governors versus incompetent governors .
It ’ s California getting hit with the Italian strain that hit New York in March .
That ’ s why the California rate is going up .
But none of this is a true second wave as virologists and epidemiologists understand it .
This is really the first wave with timing differences .
A real second wave is when you actually do get the virus under control and the caseload drops off everywhere .
Then four , five or six months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fatal , more contagious than before .
That ’ s what happened in the 1918 Spanish flu .
There was a bad outbreak with a lot of fatalities in March 1918 , but the most fatalities happened in October after the initial outbreak cooled down .
There was relative calm in May and June , but then it started coming back .
By October it got so bad that bodies were piled up on the streets like cordwood .
There were so many bodies they didn ’ t know what to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second wave could potentially look like .
We could see a real second wave based on a mutation that could come this fall and winter .
The larger problem is there ’ s good evidence that lockdowns don ’ t work .
Death rates in countries with severe lockdowns weren ’ t appreciably better than in some countries that didn ’ t fully lock down .
If you ’ re on an island and don ’ t let any ships or planes in , then maybe that works .
But society would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would literally destroy the world ’ s largest economy and the global economy .
That ’ s not a viable option .
Some restrictions make sense .
Maybe we don ’ t attend large gatherings for a while .
But to go further and shut down every nail salon , barbershop , hair stylist , pizza parlor , dry cleaner , et cetera coast to coast is something else entirely .
Small and medium sized enterprises are 45 % of GDP and almost 50 % of jobs .
When you start shutting that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy .
And that was never necessary .
It was never going to stop the problem .
If we had done the common sense restrictions while leaving much of the economy open , we would have likely been in much better shape .
There ’ s the old 90/10 rule , where you can get 90 % of the benefit at 10 % of the cost .
We didn ’ t do that .
We tried to get a 100 % benefit , but the cost was 100 % of the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality is , the economy ’ s in very bad shape .
The idea that we ’ re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense .
The data is already indicating we ’ re in a recovery , yes .
But if you fall into a 50 foot hole and climb 10 feet up , you ’ re still 40 feet in the hole .
We ’ re not going to see 2019 levels of output until 2023 at the earliest .
We ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unemployment until probably 2025 .
We ’ re not getting back there for three or four or maybe five years .
So we ’ re looking at a long , slow recovery .
And that ’ s if things don ’ t get worse from here .
But they could , especially if we get a deadly second wave .
We ’ ve climbed 10 feet out of the hole .
Unfortunately , we could find ourselves right back at the bottom before too long .
And digging our way back up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

BY JAMES RICKARDS
A lot of the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic was based on the belief that it would be over quickly. We saw big, multi-trillion dollar spending bills from March into May. The Fed took their balance sheet from about $3.8 trillion to around $7 trillion. (By the way, I can easily envision some scenarios where it goes to $10 trillion).
But all that was done as a sort of bridge loan to get us from April to July. The expectation in April was that when we got to July, the pandemic would be under control, we could reopen the economy, it would be a V-shaped recovery, and it would all be good before the election. That hasn’t turned out to be the case.
Here we are in mid-August. The virus has surged in several states, which have increased their restrictions in many cases. But the relief packages have largely ended.
Congress is debating another bailout package, but there’s no consensus. It may happen. But as of now, there’s no middle ground between Democrats and Republicans. And that’s important because if you go back to the bridge loan analogy, we’re going to need another to keep the economy and stock market propped up if lockdowns continue.
Now we’re facing a second wave of layoffs. A lot of people who would have been laid off in April were kept on the payroll until, say, the end of July. But there’s no more Payroll Protection Plan. So all of the layoffs that would have happened in April are going to happen in August.
Come September, when we get the August employment report, we may see a real deterioration of employment based on what I’m describing.
We also need to be aware of the real possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 infections.
We’ve heard a lot about the second wave. We’re seeing huge outbreaks in Los Angeles, for example. California has gone from about 4,000 fatalities to now over 10,000 fatalities. It’s passed Massachusetts, which was third on the list. Now Massachusetts is sixth, but Texas and Florida are coming up fast, 4th and 5th respectively.
But this isn’t a second wave. It’s just an extension of the first.
To see why, let’s get into the medical science a bit. The virus started in Wuhan, China. But it spread in two directions. It came east where there was an initial outbreak in California and Washington. But the virus also went west out of China to Italy. Why Italy?
It was Fashion Week in February and the Chinese essentially own the fashion industry. So there were tens of thousands of Chinese flying to Milan for Fashion Week. In Italy, the virus mutated and became more contagious. Not more lethal. The death rate didn’t go up, but the contagion rate went up. Deaths increased, but only because the number of infections increased. The Italian strain, let’s call it, then came to New York.
New York was the epicenter, the hotspot of the entire country, while California seemed to be doing pretty well. The assumption was that California Governor Gavin Newsom was doing everything right and Governor Andrew Cuomo must have been doing everything wrong.
Cuomo made a lot of mistakes, no question about it, but that wasn’t the difference. The difference was the initial strain in California was less contagious than the one that hit New York.
Now what has happened two months later is that the Italian strain, which hit New York, has spread to the rest of the country. This is not just a question of public policy, smart governors versus incompetent governors. It’s California getting hit with the Italian strain that hit New York in March.
That’s why the California rate is going up. But none of this is a true second wave as virologists and epidemiologists understand it. This is really the first wave with timing differences.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A real second wave is when you actually do get the virus under control and the caseload drops off everywhere. Then four, five or six months go by and it comes back more fatal, more contagious than before.
That’s what happened in the 1918 Spanish flu. There was a bad outbreak with a lot of fatalities in March 1918, but the most fatalities happened in October after the initial outbreak cooled down.
There was relative calm in May and June, but then it started coming back. By October it got so bad that bodies were piled up on the streets like cordwood. There were so many bodies they didn’t know what to do with them all.
That’s what a second wave could potentially look like. We could see a real second wave based on a mutation that could come this fall and winter.
The larger problem is there’s good evidence that lockdowns don’t work. Death rates in countries with severe lockdowns weren’t appreciably better than in some countries that didn’t fully lock down.
If you’re on an island and don’t let any ships or planes in, then maybe that works. But society would literally grind to a halt. You would literally destroy the world’s largest economy and the global economy. That’s not a viable option.
Some restrictions make sense. Maybe we don’t attend large gatherings for a while. But to go further and shut down every nail salon, barbershop, hair stylist, pizza parlor, dry cleaner, et cetera coast to coast is something else entirely.
Small and medium sized enterprises are 45% of GDP and almost 50% of jobs. When you start shutting that down, you’re shutting down the economy. And that was never necessary. It was never going to stop the problem. If we had done the common sense restrictions while leaving much of the economy open, we would have likely been in much better shape.
There’s the old 90/10 rule, where you can get 90% of the benefit at 10% of the cost. We didn’t do that. We tried to get a 100% benefit, but the cost was 100% of the economy, or close to it.
The reality is, the economy’s in very bad shape. The idea that we’re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense. The data is already indicating we’re in a recovery, yes. But if you fall into a 50 foot hole and climb 10 feet up, you’re still 40 feet in the hole.
We’re not going to see 2019 levels of output until 2023 at the earliest. We’re not going to see 2019 low levels of unemployment until probably 2025. We’re not getting back there for three or four or maybe five years. So we’re looking at a long, slow recovery.
And that’s if things don’t get worse from here. But they could, especially if we get a deadly second wave.
We’ve climbed 10 feet out of the hole. Unfortunately, we could find ourselves right back at the bottom before too long.
And digging our way back up to 2019 levels would take even longer.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning