investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--5 Ways Americans Could Be “Encouraged” to Get a Covid Vaccine

by Daisy Luther of The Organic Prepper As Pfizer and Moderna both rush a vaccine to market to fight the Covid-19 virus , will promises of returning to “ normal ” be enough to persuade people to take the quickly developed injection ?
This article isn ’ t about persuading you one way or the other about whether you should be vaccinated .
That is a matter for you , your family , and your physician to discuss .
It ’ s about the opinions of Americans , the legalities of mandating cooperation , what we know about the vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used to “ encourage ” your cooperation .
It ’ s expected that the new coronavirus vaccines will be approved any day now .
Each vaccine is said to require two shots to confer immunity to the virus .
Pfizer requires two doses three weeks apart , and Moderna requires two doses four weeks apart .
About half of Americans are eager to be vaccinated .
According to a poll conducted by Pew Research , 51 % of American adults would immediately get a vaccine if it were available .
That , of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all American adults aren ’ t convinced this is something that they want to do right now .
This number has decreased from the first time the poll was taken .
Back in May , 72 % of American adults were on board with rolling up their sleeves as soon as possible .
Of course , this poll assumes that people will have a choice whether or not to be inoculated .
While half of the people surveyed want the injection , the other half do not .
And that ’ s where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a choice what medical treatments we undergo ?
Dr. Ron Paul spoke to The Huffington Post back in 2008 and said something as meaningful today as it was a dozen years ago .
Here are some of the immediate side effects .
Yasir Batalvi , a 24-year-old from Boston , volunteered to get the vaccine and received the two doses after signing a 22-page consent form .
He shared his experience with CNN : “ The actual injection felt , at first , just like a flu shot , which is basically just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your arm , ” Batalvi said .
“ Once I left the hospital , that evening , the stiffness got a little bit worse .
It was definitely manageable , but you kind of don ’ t really feel like moving your arm too far above your shoulder .
But the side effects are pretty localized .
I mean , it ’ s just in the muscle in your arm .
And that ’ s about it .
It doesn ’ t really affect anything else and you feel fine.
” That was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ second dose was different .
“ I actually had some pretty significant symptoms after I got the second dose .
Once I got the second dose , I was fine while I was in the hospital .
But that evening was rough .
I mean , I developed a low-grade fever , and fatigue and chills , ” Batalvi said .
He said he was out for that day and evening , but he “ felt ready to go by the next morning.
” He said he called the study doctors to let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weren ’ t alarmed and told him he shouldn ’ t be either.Feeling under the weather does not mean that you got Covid-19 from the vaccine — in fact , experts say having this kind of reaction shows that your body is responding the way it should , and it should not deter anyone from getting vaccinated or going back for their second dose .
( source ) Doctors have urged the CDC to be transparent about the fact that the side effects of the vaccine are “ not a walk in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American Medical Association said both Pfizer ’ s and Moderna ’ s Covid-19 vaccines require two doses at varying intervals .
As a practicing physician , she said she worries whether her patients will come back for a second dose because of the potentially unpleasant side effects they may experience after the first shot .
“ We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park , ” Fryhofer said during a virtual meeting with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices , or ACIP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that advise the CDC .
She is also a liaison to the committee .
“ They are going to know they had a vaccine .
They are probably not going to feel wonderful .
But they ’ ve got to come back for that second dose… …One North Carolina woman in the Moderna study who is in her 50s said she didn ’ t experience a fever but suffered a bad migraine that left her drained for a day and unable to focus .
She said she woke up the next day feeling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moderna may need to tell people to take a day off after a second dose .
“ If this proves to work , people are going to have to toughen up , ” she said .
“ The first dose is no big deal .
And then the second dose will definitely put you down for the day for sure .
… You will need to take a day off after the second dose.
” ( source ) These are the immediate side effects but only time will tell if there are long-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intend to mandate the vaccine ?
Joe Biden has said that the vaccine will not be made mandatory on a federal level .
The thing is , these decisions are usually made on a state level .
Some government officials are already talking about mandating the vaccine .
Virginia State Health Commissioner , Dr. Norman Oliver , is all for mandatory Covid vaccinations .
Despite his health commissioner ’ s enthusiasm , Virginia Governor Ralph Northam has said he is not planning to mandate the vaccine at this time .
The Virginia health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to mandate the vaccination .
The New York State Bar has also recommended it be mandatory for residents of the state .
All this being said , there doesn ’ t seem to be a direct plan to pass laws making people take the vaccine .
Can the government actually make people take a vaccine ?
Despite this law being in place , mandating the vaccine will probably not be the first method used by the government .
Will Americans be forced or persuaded ?
So what happens during a pandemic when there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hesitant to take ?
Will we be forcibly immunized against our will ?
It ’ s likely to be a much different approach than a SWAT team breaching your house in the middle of the night , holding down your family members , and stabbing them with syringes .
If a widespread push is made to get people to take this vaccine , it will likely be a case of making life difficult for those who opt-out and more pleasant for those who opt-in .
People are desperate to resume some kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the campaign for vaccination .
As we move into the second round of lockdowns , folks just want to have holidays with their families .
Millions have been pushed into poverty .
Mental health issues abound from the months of isolation .
It ’ s difficult to connect with others and people want to resume their lives .
And if that ’ s not enough to persuade them to roll up their sleeve for an injection , following are some of the possibilities that have been mentioned to “ encourage ” Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available .
Your kids may have to take it to go to school .
Most states already require that children be vaccinated against polio , diphtheria , tetanus , and pertussis , measles , rumps , and rubella , chickenpox , and hepatitis B unless they hold an exemption that is valid in that state .
Exemptions are generally related to medical issues , religious beliefs , or personal philosophy .
It ’ s likely that a mandatory Covid vaccine for children to attend school would vary from state to state .
Children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this particular virus and have seemed less likely than adults to contract it .
( There have , of course , been some exceptions . )
To some , that would indicate children did not need to undergo the risk of taking yet another vaccine .
Dr. Christine Turley , M.D.
, Pediatrics Specialist and vice-chair of research at Atrium Health Levine Children ’ s Hospital believes it could be beneficial .
And even if your kids are attending school via Zoom , it may not exempt them .
I spoke to one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learning in Massachusetts .
Although they will not be setting foot on school property , they are still required to have proof that they are up to date on all required vaccinations .
Employers could insist that employees be vaccinated .
You could potentially lose your job if you refuse to take a vaccine that your employer has deemed mandatory .
Legal and public health expert Joanne Rosen , a senior lecturer in Health Policy and Management and the Center for Law and the Public ’ s Health , spoke about the topic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Call podcast host Stephanie Desmon .
Dorit Reiss , a law professor at the University of California Hastings College of the Law in San Francisco , told TODAY there were a few exceptions : Consider how some workplaces require all employees to receive a flu shot – the Covid vaccine could be enforced in a similar manner .
Health care workers and those involved in education are most likely to be the first to face such requirements .
Businesses could require patrons to show proof of vaccination .
Even if a state or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ privately owned businesses could potentially require patrons to show proof of vaccination before they receive service .
Private businesses can set their own policies .
Ticketmaster , the purveyor of tickets for concerts , plays , and just about any public event , has already “ been working on a framework for post-pandemic fan safety ” that would use their phones to confirm whether they ’ ve been vaccinated or had a negative test within the past couple of days .
Billboard reports : Here ’ s how it would work , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a concert , fans would need to verify that they have already been vaccinated ( which would provide approximately one year of COVID-19 protection ) or test negative for coronavirus approximately 24 to 72 hours prior to the concert .
The length of coverage a test would provide would be governed by regional health authorities — if attendees of a Friday night concert had to be tested 48 hours in advance , most could start the testing process the day before the event .
If it was a 24-hour window , most people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the event at a lab or a health clinic .
Once the test was complete , the fan would instruct the lab to deliver the results to their health pass company , like CLEAR or IBM .
If the tests were negative , or the fan was vaccinated , the health pass company would verify the attendee ’ s COVID-19 status to Ticketmaster , which would then issue the fan the credentials needed to access the event .
If a fan tested positive or didn ’ t take a test to verify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ granted access to the event .
There are still many details to work out , but the goal of the program is for fans to take care of vaccines and testing prior to the concert and not show up hoping to be tested onsite .
Ticketmaster would not store or have access to fans ’ medical records and would only receive verification of whether a fan is cleared to attend an event on a given date .
( source ) This isn ’ t a definite plan but the fact that it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could spread to sporting events , shopping centers , movie theaters , or any other venue in which people are in close proximity with one another .
Your eligibility for a $ 1500 stimulus check could depend on it .
U.S. Rep. John Delaney , a Democrat from Maryland who was an “ also-ran ” in the recent presidential election , thinks that tying the next stimulus check to vaccination is a good idea .
Delaney said the program would cost about $ 380 billion , more than the $ 270 billion the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stimulus checks that went out earlier this year .
Given the US ’ s rather dismal economic situation , $ 1500 for taking a couple of free injections would probably be tough to pass up for a lot of folks .
You may not be able to travel without it .
Airlines are preparing to launch a digital “ Covid Passport ” to try and revive the dying travel industry .
For people who travel recreationally , this might not be enough inducement to get the vaccine .
But for those who have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel for work , it could become a necessity .
What should you know about the Covid vaccine ?
The Covid vaccine uses new technology called mRNA .
The mRNA vaccine sequences are designed to mimic those produced by mammalian cells .
Because of this , mRNA vaccines are much faster ( and cheaper ) to produce than antigen vaccines .
The PHG Organization of the University of Cambridge explains : At this point , there are no licensed mRNA vaccines in the United States .
Much of the research on mRNA has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to target specific cancer cells .
There are innumerable videos and articles about the pros and cons of mRNA vaccinations and I urge you to do your own research when making decisions for your family .
Will you be getting a Covid vaccine ?
I ’ m personally against mandating any type of medical care or procedures .
If we don ’ t control what goes into our own bodies , how can we consider ourselves free human beings ?
This isn ’ t to say a particular vaccine or treatment is good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t want to be forced or manipulated into making medical decisions .
I believe we should all have the right to make our own medical choices .
Approximately half of the Americans surveyed are eager to get a Covid vaccine right away .
Others want to wait for a year or so , to see if there are long-term negative side effects .
Still others have no interest in the vaccine whatsoever .
What are your thoughts on this vaccine and any possible mandates ?
Let ’ s discuss it in the comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gun-toting blogger who writes about current events , preparedness , frugality , voluntaryism , and the pursuit of liberty on her website , The Organic Prepper .
She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site , PreppersDailyNews.com .
Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and lives in the mountains of Virginia with her two daughters and an ever-growing menagerie .
You can find her on Facebook , Pinterest , and Twitter .

by Daisy Luther of The Organic Prepper
As Pfizer and Moderna both rush a vaccine to market to fight the Covid-19 virus, will promises of returning to “normal” be enough to persuade people to take the quickly developed injection?
This article isn’t about persuading you one way or the other about whether you should be vaccinated. That is a matter for you, your family, and your physician to discuss. It’s about the opinions of Americans, the legalities of mandating cooperation, what we know about the vaccine, and the tactics that could be used to “encourage” your cooperation.
It’s expected that the new coronavirus vaccines will be approved any day now. Each vaccine is said to require two shots to confer immunity to the virus. Pfizer requires two doses three weeks apart, and Moderna requires two doses four weeks apart.
About half of Americans are eager to be vaccinated.
According to a poll conducted by Pew Research, 51% of American adults would immediately get a vaccine if it were available. That, of course, means that nearly half of all American adults aren’t convinced this is something that they want to do right now. This number has decreased from the first time the poll was taken. Back in May, 72% of American adults were on board with rolling up their sleeves as soon as possible.
Of course, this poll assumes that people will have a choice whether or not to be inoculated.
While half of the people surveyed want the injection, the other half do not. And that’s where the controversy lies – should we have a choice what medical treatments we undergo? Dr. Ron Paul spoke to The Huffington Post back in 2008 and said something as meaningful today as it was a dozen years ago.
“If we accept this notion that the federal government is going to dictate what we can put into our bodies, then it leads to the next step: that the government is going to regulate everything that is supposedly good for us. That’s where they are. They have an FDA that won’t allow somebody who’s dying to use an experimental drug which might speed up the process of finding out which drugs are good and which drugs are bad and the federal government comes in and dictates that they want complete control over vitamins and nutritional products and I just think the whole principal of government telling us what we can take in or not take in is just a dangerous position to take… it’s related to the drug industry because they’d like to control all of this.” (source)
Here are some of the immediate side effects.
Yasir Batalvi, a 24-year-old from Boston, volunteered to get the vaccine and received the two doses after signing a 22-page consent form. He shared his experience with CNN:
“The actual injection felt, at first, just like a flu shot, which is basically just a little pinch in the side of your arm,” Batalvi said. “Once I left the hospital, that evening, the stiffness got a little bit worse. It was definitely manageable, but you kind of don’t really feel like moving your arm too far above your shoulder. But the side effects are pretty localized. I mean, it’s just in the muscle in your arm. And that’s about it. It doesn’t really affect anything else and you feel fine.”
That was after the first dose. But the second dose was different.
“I actually had some pretty significant symptoms after I got the second dose. Once I got the second dose, I was fine while I was in the hospital. But that evening was rough. I mean, I developed a low-grade fever, and fatigue and chills,” Batalvi said. He said he was out for that day and evening, but he “felt ready to go by the next morning.”He said he called the study doctors to let them know about his symptoms. They weren’t alarmed and told him he shouldn’t be either.Feeling under the weather does not mean that you got Covid-19 from the vaccine — in fact, experts say having this kind of reaction shows that your body is responding the way it should, and it should not deter anyone from getting vaccinated or going back for their second dose. (source)
Doctors have urged the CDC to be transparent about the fact that the side effects of the vaccine are “not a walk in the park.”
Dr. Sandra Fryhofer of the American Medical Association said both Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines require two doses at varying intervals. As a practicing physician, she said she worries whether her patients will come back for a second dose because of the potentially unpleasant side effects they may experience after the first shot. “We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park,” Fryhofer said during a virtual meeting with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, an outside group of medical experts that advise the CDC. She is also a liaison to the committee. “They are going to know they had a vaccine. They are probably not going to feel wonderful. But they’ve got to come back for that second dose… …One North Carolina woman in the Moderna study who is in her 50s said she didn’t experience a fever but suffered a bad migraine that left her drained for a day and unable to focus. She said she woke up the next day feeling better after taking Excedrin but added that Moderna may need to tell people to take a day off after a second dose. “If this proves to work, people are going to have to toughen up,” she said. “The first dose is no big deal. And then the second dose will definitely put you down for the day for sure. … You will need to take a day off after the second dose.” (source)
These are the immediate side effects but only time will tell if there are long-term side effects.
Does the United States intend to mandate the vaccine?
Joe Biden has said that the vaccine will not be made mandatory on a federal level. The thing is, these decisions are usually made on a state level.
Some government officials are already talking about mandating the vaccine. Virginia State Health Commissioner, Dr. Norman Oliver, is all for mandatory Covid vaccinations.
State Health Commissioner Dr. Norman Oliver told 8News on Friday that he plans to mandate coronavirus vaccinations for Virginians once one is made available to the public. Virginia state law gives the Commissioner of Health the authority to mandate immediate immunizations during a public health crisis if a vaccine is available. Health officials say an immunization could be released as early as 2021. Dr. Oliver says that, as long as he is still the Health Commissioner, he intends to mandate the coronavirus vaccine… …Oliver believes that, in the case of COVID-19, public health takes precedent over choice. He said herd immunity is the state’s best defense to stop the spread. (source)
Despite his health commissioner’s enthusiasm, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam has said he is not planning to mandate the vaccine at this time.
The Virginia health commissioner is not alone in his desire to mandate the vaccination. The New York State Bar has also recommended it be mandatory for residents of the state.
All this being said, there doesn’t seem to be a direct plan to pass laws making people take the vaccine.
Can the government actually make people take a vaccine?
Actually, yes.
But there is legislative precedent dating back to a U.S. Supreme Court case in 1905 called Jacobson v. Massachusetts that allows the government to mandate vaccinations. In that case, the Supreme Court said that states have under their police powers, which is under the Constitution, the authority to enact reasonable regulations as necessary to protect public health, public safety, and the common good. Vaccination mandates constitute exactly that kind of permissible state action to protect the public’s health. Even though it’s 115 years old, this continues to be the benchmark case on the state’s power to mandate vaccination. In response to the argument about this individual liberty interest, the court said that sometimes individual interests might have to yield to state laws that endeavor to protect the health of everybody—the “common good.” The court said: “The rights of the individual may at times, under the pressure of great dangers, be subjected to such restraint to be enforced by reasonable regulations as the safety of the general public may demand.” So, yes: Once COVID vaccines are available, states could elect to require that people who live within that state be vaccinated. (source)
Despite this law being in place, mandating the vaccine will probably not be the first method used by the government.
Will Americans be forced or persuaded?
So what happens during a pandemic when there’s a vaccine that people are hesitant to take? Will we be forcibly immunized against our will?
It’s likely to be a much different approach than a SWAT team breaching your house in the middle of the night, holding down your family members, and stabbing them with syringes. If a widespread push is made to get people to take this vaccine, it will likely be a case of making life difficult for those who opt-out and more pleasant for those who opt-in.
People are desperate to resume some kind of normalcy, which will certainly be part of the campaign for vaccination. As we move into the second round of lockdowns, folks just want to have holidays with their families. Millions have been pushed into poverty. Mental health issues abound from the months of isolation. It’s difficult to connect with others and people want to resume their lives.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And if that’s not enough to persuade them to roll up their sleeve for an injection, following are some of the possibilities that have been mentioned to “encourage” Americans to take the vaccine when it becomes available.
Your kids may have to take it to go to school.
Most states already require that children be vaccinated against polio, diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis, measles, rumps, and rubella, chickenpox, and hepatitis B unless they hold an exemption that is valid in that state. Exemptions are generally related to medical issues, religious beliefs, or personal philosophy.
It’s likely that a mandatory Covid vaccine for children to attend school would vary from state to state. Children have generally not become very ill with this particular virus and have seemed less likely than adults to contract it. (There have, of course, been some exceptions.) To some, that would indicate children did not need to undergo the risk of taking yet another vaccine. Dr. Christine Turley, M.D., Pediatrics Specialist and vice-chair of research at Atrium Health Levine Children’s Hospital believes it could be beneficial.
However, school-bound children could spread the virus to parents, grandparents, and others with underlying health conditions. Vaccinating children could eliminate one major source of coronavirus spread, possibly increasing the effectiveness of herd immunity (source)
And even if your kids are attending school via Zoom, it may not exempt them. I spoke to one parent whose children are engaged in distance learning in Massachusetts. Although they will not be setting foot on school property, they are still required to have proof that they are up to date on all required vaccinations.
Employers could insist that employees be vaccinated.
You could potentially lose your job if you refuse to take a vaccine that your employer has deemed mandatory. Legal and public health expert Joanne Rosen, a senior lecturer in Health Policy and Management and the Center for Law and the Public’s Health, spoke about the topic of mandatory vaccinations with Public Health On Call podcast host Stephanie Desmon.
An employer has to have a “reasonable basis.” If you worked in retail, I’m not sure a corporate entity could require that. They may want you to and recommend it, but it wouldn’t be reasonably related to the requirements of their job. But in sectors in which the employees are themselves at greater risk of contracting vaccine-preventable illnesses or who work with populations that are especially vulnerable if they do get sick, like hospital workers, health care workers, and people who work in [long-term care] facilities, employers have required that their staff be vaccinated against the flu each year. Another thing that states could do, short of a requirement across the board that everybody be vaccinated, is they could begin with a mandate that focuses on those sectors—people who are themselves at greater risk or who work in proximity with vulnerable populations. We don’t want the employees themselves getting sick and being a bridge, or “vector,” to infecting others who are vulnerable. People may object, but some more targeted form of vaccine mandate may make sense and also be possible. (source)
Dorit Reiss, a law professor at the University of California Hastings College of the Law in San Francisco, told TODAY there were a few exceptions:
Employees who are part of a union may be exempt from the vaccine requirement. Anti-discrimination laws also provide some limits. If you can’t get the vaccine for medical reasons, that could be a disability under the Americans with Disabilities Act, which would require an employer to accommodate you. That could mean requiring you to wear a mask on the job or have limited contact with other people, Reiss said. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 may protect people who have a religious objection to a vaccine. An employer would have to make a reasonable accommodation as long as it’s not too costly for the business. These laws apply only to companies with 15 or more employees, so smaller businesses are exempt. “We think about employers as this huge, amorphous thing, but under the law, they’re also private entities with rights, especially if it’s a small mom and pop shop,” Reiss noted. (source)
Consider how some workplaces require all employees to receive a flu shot – the Covid vaccine could be enforced in a similar manner. Health care workers and those involved in education are most likely to be the first to face such requirements.
Businesses could require patrons to show proof of vaccination.
Even if a state or federal mandate is not in place, privately owned businesses could potentially require patrons to show proof of vaccination before they receive service.
Can airlines, restaurants, stores and stadiums make the vaccine a condition of doing business with you? Yes, within the anti-discrimination laws mentioned above. “They can decide to refuse service to you for pretty much any reason,” Reiss said, pointing out a policy most shoppers are already familiar with: no shirt, no shoes, no service. People who are covered by anti-discrimination laws can’t just demand a business let them do whatever they want. The company just has to give you a reasonable accommodation, so a store might refuse you entry but offer curbside pick-up of groceries. (source)
Private businesses can set their own policies. Ticketmaster, the purveyor of tickets for concerts, plays, and just about any public event, has already “been working on a framework for post-pandemic fan safety” that would use their phones to confirm whether they’ve been vaccinated or had a negative test within the past couple of days. Billboard reports:
Here’s how it would work, if approved: After purchasing a ticket for a concert, fans would need to verify that they have already been vaccinated (which would provide approximately one year of COVID-19 protection) or test negative for coronavirus approximately 24 to 72 hours prior to the concert. The length of coverage a test would provide would be governed by regional health authorities — if attendees of a Friday night concert had to be tested 48 hours in advance, most could start the testing process the day before the event. If it was a 24-hour window, most people would likely be tested the same day of the event at a lab or a health clinic. Once the test was complete, the fan would instruct the lab to deliver the results to their health pass company, like CLEAR or IBM. If the tests were negative, or the fan was vaccinated, the health pass company would verify the attendee’s COVID-19 status to Ticketmaster, which would then issue the fan the credentials needed to access the event. If a fan tested positive or didn’t take a test to verify their status, they would not be granted access to the event. There are still many details to work out, but the goal of the program is for fans to take care of vaccines and testing prior to the concert and not show up hoping to be tested onsite. Ticketmaster would not store or have access to fans’ medical records and would only receive verification of whether a fan is cleared to attend an event on a given date. (source)
This isn’t a definite plan but the fact that it’s in the works means the idea could spread to sporting events, shopping centers, movie theaters, or any other venue in which people are in close proximity with one another.
Your eligibility for a $1500 stimulus check could depend on it.
U.S. Rep. John Delaney, a Democrat from Maryland who was an “also-ran” in the recent presidential election, thinks that tying the next stimulus check to vaccination is a good idea.
“We have to create, in my judgment, an incentive for people to really accelerate their thinking about taking the vaccine,” Delaney told CNBC, noting that nobody would be forced to participate if they don’t want to.
Delaney said the program would cost about $380 billion, more than the $270 billion the U.S. spent on the $1,200 coronavirus stimulus checks that went out earlier this year.
“So if you can only spend $400 billion, this is what you should spend it on,” Delaney said. (source)
Given the US’s rather dismal economic situation, $1500 for taking a couple of free injections would probably be tough to pass up for a lot of folks.
You may not be able to travel without it.
Airlines are preparing to launch a digital “Covid Passport” to try and revive the dying travel industry.
The International Air Transport Association, or IATA, on Monday said it plans to introduce this month a mobile phone app that arriving travelers could use to prove that they’ve been vaccinated for the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 and tested negative for it. Conceivably the app, which IATA is calling The Travel Pass, also could become necessary for domestic flights should airlines begin requiring all their passengers to document their Covid-19 vaccination and testing status. No governments as yet have said they will accept such digital documentation from travelers as a way for them to escape the quarantines currently required by many nations for arriving foreigners… …But IATA, which represents nearly 300 airlines that collectively carry 82% of all air travelers globally, is acting now so that its member carriers can begin ramping up their international operations as Covid-19 vaccines begin being administered, presumably in a matter of weeks. (source)
For people who travel recreationally, this might not be enough inducement to get the vaccine. But for those who have family members in other countries or who travel for work, it could become a necessity.
What should you know about the Covid vaccine?
The Covid vaccine uses new technology called mRNA. The mRNA vaccine sequences are designed to mimic those produced by mammalian cells. Because of this, mRNA vaccines are much faster (and cheaper) to produce than antigen vaccines. The PHG Organization of the University of Cambridge explains:
Conventional vaccines usually contain inactivated disease-causing organisms or proteins made by the pathogen (antigens), which work by mimicking the infectious agent. They stimulate the body’s immune response, so it is primed to respond more rapidly and effectively if exposed to the infectious agent in the future. RNA vaccines use a different approach that takes advantage of the process that cells use to make proteins: cells use DNA as the template to make messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules, which are then translated to build proteins. An RNA vaccine consists of an mRNA strand that codes for a disease-specific antigen. Once the mRNA strand in the vaccine is inside the body’s cells, the cells use the genetic information to produce the antigen. This antigen is then displayed on the cell surface, where it is recognised by the immune system. (source)
At this point, there are no licensed mRNA vaccines in the United States. Much of the research on mRNA has been focused on triggering the immune system to target specific cancer cells.
There are innumerable videos and articles about the pros and cons of mRNA vaccinations and I urge you to do your own research when making decisions for your family.
Will you be getting a Covid vaccine?
I’m personally against mandating any type of medical care or procedures. If we don’t control what goes into our own bodies, how can we consider ourselves free human beings? This isn’t to say a particular vaccine or treatment is good or bad. I simply don’t want to be forced or manipulated into making medical decisions. I believe we should all have the right to make our own medical choices.
Approximately half of the Americans surveyed are eager to get a Covid vaccine right away. Others want to wait for a year or so, to see if there are long-term negative side effects. Still others have no interest in the vaccine whatsoever.
What are your thoughts on this vaccine and any possible mandates? Let’s discuss it in the comments.
Daisy Luther is a coffee-swigging, gun-toting blogger who writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and lives in the mountains of Virginia with her two daughters and an ever-growing menagerie. You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Pandemic Proof: The Most Loved Brands of COVID-19

Since March of this year , the COVID-19 pandemic has forced millions of people to physically distance themselves from others , yet many feel closer to their loved ones than ever before .
When it comes to brands , consumers have forged relationships that could be just as meaningful .
In fact , consumers demonstrated a 23 % increase in the number of brands they have an emotional connection with—so what does this mean for brands ?
The graphic above highlights data from MBLM ’ s Brand Intimacy COVID Study which measures how emotionally connected consumers in the U.S. are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how brands can benefit .
While attracting eyeballs or increasing foot traffic may carry a lot of weight when it comes to determining the success of certain brands , the real metric that should be paid attention to is love .
Brands that nurture emotional bonds with their customers tend to outperform top companies listed on the S & P 500 and Fortune 500 in both revenue and profit .
Not only that , they can also build higher levels of trust , which in turn breeds a more loyal consumer base over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on , this idea has become more relevant than ever before .
Consumers have been using their newfound time to deepen their relationship with brands , but who has managed to win their hearts ?
Brand Love in the Time of COVID-19 Apple has been named as the most loved brand during COVID-19 , moving up from third place before the pandemic .
Even though the tech giant beat Disney and Amazon for the top spot , its success can mostly be attributed to female and millennial consumers , while Amazon was voted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The list of most loved brands has seen three new additions throughout the year : Google , YouTube , and Toyota , which means that media and entertainment brands now dominate the list .
The retail industry has also increased intimacy score performance by 9.4 % during the pandemic , with Walmart flying the flag for retail brands in fourth place .
When it comes to giving consumers what they want , Apple ticks the box for three important need states highlighted in the report : • Fulfilment : A brand that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , quality , and efficacy .
• Ritual : When a person ingrains a brand into his or her daily actions , it becomes a vitally important part of their everyday life .
• Enhancement : Customers become better through use of the brand—smarter , more capable , and more connected .
Interestingly , brands that are part of the smartphone ecosystem generally outperform brands that are not , and the ecosystem has only increased in strength during the pandemic .
Moreover , brands that fall into the “ devices ” or “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and are therefore more loved .
There has also been an increase in the performance of brands in the “ access ” category—such as Verizon and AT & T—which may be attributed to the value people are placing on communication during the pandemic .
It ’ s also worth noting that consumers have increased their usage of virtual conferencing brand Zoom more than any other brand in the study .
While hand sanitizer brand Purell did not make the list of most loved brands , it ranked in first place when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic and is the brand consumers are most willing to pay 20 % more for .
Overall , it is clear that COVID-19 has had a huge influence on the brands that consumers connect with most .
With their preferences now leaning towards brands in the smartphone ecosystem , one has to wonder : will marketers of the future place more value on winning the hearts of consumers , or simply getting in their hands ?

by visualcapitalist
Since March of this year, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced millions of people to physically distance themselves from others, yet many feel closer to their loved ones than ever before.
When it comes to brands, consumers have forged relationships that could be just as meaningful. In fact, consumers demonstrated a 23% increase in the number of brands they have an emotional connection with—so what does this mean for brands?
The graphic above highlights data from MBLM’s Brand Intimacy COVID Study which measures how emotionally connected consumers in the U.S. are to the brands they use, and how brands can benefit.
The Power of Love
While attracting eyeballs or increasing foot traffic may carry a lot of weight when it comes to determining the success of certain brands, the real metric that should be paid attention to is love.
Brands that nurture emotional bonds with their customers tend to outperform top companies listed on the S&P 500 and Fortune 500 in both revenue and profit. Not only that, they can also build higher levels of trust, which in turn breeds a more loyal consumer base over time.
“The concept of brand intimacy is important for marketers because emotion has been proven to drive purchase decisions, and also long-term customer bonds.”
—MBLM Managing Partner, Mario Natarelli
As the global pandemic rages on, this idea has become more relevant than ever before. Consumers have been using their newfound time to deepen their relationship with brands, but who has managed to win their hearts?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Brand Love in the Time of COVID-19
Apple has been named as the most loved brand during COVID-19, moving up from third place before the pandemic. Even though the tech giant beat Disney and Amazon for the top spot, its success can mostly be attributed to female and millennial consumers, while Amazon was voted the most loved brand for male consumers.
The list of most loved brands has seen three new additions throughout the year: Google, YouTube, and Toyota, which means that media and entertainment brands now dominate the list. The retail industry has also increased intimacy score performance by 9.4% during the pandemic, with Walmart flying the flag for retail brands in fourth place.
The Formula for a Happy Relationship
When it comes to giving consumers what they want, Apple ticks the box for three important need states highlighted in the report:
Fulfilment: A brand that exceeds expectations by delivering on superior service, quality, and efficacy.
A brand that exceeds expectations by delivering on superior service, quality, and efficacy. Ritual: When a person ingrains a brand into his or her daily actions, it becomes a vitally important part of their everyday life.
When a person ingrains a brand into his or her daily actions, it becomes a vitally important part of their everyday life. Enhancement: Customers become better through use of the brand—smarter, more capable, and more connected.
Interestingly, brands that are part of the smartphone ecosystem generally outperform brands that are not, and the ecosystem has only increased in strength during the pandemic. Moreover, brands that fall into the “devices” or “content/information” categories have higher intimacy scores, and are therefore more loved.
There has also been an increase in the performance of brands in the “access” category—such as Verizon and AT&T—which may be attributed to the value people are placing on communication during the pandemic.
Notable Mentions
It’s also worth noting that consumers have increased their usage of virtual conferencing brand Zoom more than any other brand in the study.
While hand sanitizer brand Purell did not make the list of most loved brands, it ranked in first place when it comes to the best response to the pandemic and is the brand consumers are most willing to pay 20% more for.
Overall, it is clear that COVID-19 has had a huge influence on the brands that consumers connect with most. With their preferences now leaning towards brands in the smartphone ecosystem, one has to wonder: will marketers of the future place more value on winning the hearts of consumers, or simply getting in their hands?


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Do the COVID Restrictions Show How Stupid Politicians Really Are?

We have to wonder just how intelligent so many politicians really are .
The number of COVID-19 cases is rising because they are now testing everyone .
Pennsylvania requires a test if you return from out of state .
The same is taking place in so many places .
My neighbors got it because someone visited them from up north .
She was even pregnant .
They had it for 2 weeks and then it passed .
Yes , there are some people who it seems to affect seriously .
But these are minor and even Bill Gates admitted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from vaccines .
He also admitted that it would be minor and only about 700,000 deaths by vaccinating the entire world .
Bavaria ’ s Prime Minister Markus Söder in Germany has called his cabinet together for a special meeting .
Because of the persistently high number of corona infections , Bavaria is overturning the easing planned for New Year ’ s Eve .
We will find out what will soon apply to Bavaria .
Of course , the number of infections will rise when you compel people to be tested .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this is not such a plague .
A lot of politicians have just jumped on the bandwagon without understanding what is really going on .
This is a political “ ME TOO ” movement and those behind this scam know that if they bribe the major leaders , all the others will follow .
It ’ s called peer-pressure and then they have the media to do it for them .
There are serious questions about vaccines that are deliberately being created to prevent women from having children .
He has even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to prevent pregnancies .
Gates has long been using the Indian population as his personal guinea pigs .
Even when Modi canceled the currency , it was Gates behind that and in fact , Modi just did it and NEVER bothered to tell the central bank in advance .
In all honesty , I fail to understand how he has allowed Bill Gates free reign .
He is using in his language something similar to Build Back Better .
“ We are a forward-looking civilization and a vibrant democracy that looks to interact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world.
” ( see Economic Times ) .
The lack of real clinical trials and investigation of what these vaccines will do long-term and even if they are going to be required 4 times a YEAR just to work or travel , creates a real nightmare and a true host of ethical questions they will not answer .
Meanwhile , they are hounding celebrities to publicly take the vaccine .
But we have no idea if they would really receive the vaccine of just water .
They certainly can not afford any side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything since this is not such a serious disease .

by Martin Armstrong
We have to wonder just how intelligent so many politicians really are. The number of COVID-19 cases is rising because they are now testing everyone. Pennsylvania requires a test if you return from out of state. The same is taking place in so many places. My neighbors got it because someone visited them from up north. She was even pregnant. They had it for 2 weeks and then it passed. Yes, there are some people who it seems to affect seriously. But these are minor and even Bill Gates admitted that there are some people who even die from vaccines. He also admitted that it would be minor and only about 700,000 deaths by vaccinating the entire world.
Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder in Germany has called his cabinet together for a special meeting. Because of the persistently high number of corona infections, Bavaria is overturning the easing planned for New Year’s Eve. We will find out what will soon apply to Bavaria. Of course, the number of infections will rise when you compel people to be tested. The number of deaths has declined to demonstrate that this is not such a plague.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A lot of politicians have just jumped on the bandwagon without understanding what is really going on. This is a political “ME TOO” movement and those behind this scam know that if they bribe the major leaders, all the others will follow. It’s called peer-pressure and then they have the media to do it for them.
There are serious questions about vaccines that are deliberately being created to prevent women from having children. He has even funded chips to be implanted into women to prevent pregnancies. Gates has long been using the Indian population as his personal guinea pigs. Even when Modi canceled the currency, it was Gates behind that and in fact, Modi just did it and NEVER bothered to tell the central bank in advance. In all honesty, I fail to understand how he has allowed Bill Gates free reign. He is using in his language something similar to Build Back Better. “We are a forward-looking civilization and a vibrant democracy that looks to interact with other countries to build a better world.” (see Economic Times).
The lack of real clinical trials and investigation of what these vaccines will do long-term and even if they are going to be required 4 times a YEAR just to work or travel, creates a real nightmare and a true host of ethical questions they will not answer. Meanwhile, they are hounding celebrities to publicly take the vaccine. But we have no idea if they would really receive the vaccine of just water. They certainly can not afford any side effects. I would personally not trust anything since this is not such a serious disease.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Chinese spy slept with 2 U.S. mayors including democrat house rep Eric Swalwell

Eric Swalwell pushed the `` Russian Collusion '' narrative against President Trump for years and is currently a member of @ @ @ @ @ on Intelligence .

Eric Swalwell pushed the "Russian Collusion" narrative against President Trump for years and is currently a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan will not seek reelection

“ I ’ ve decided that I will not seek a second term , ” Durkan told KING 5 .
@ @ @ @ @ a brutal year , but we have some really tough months ahead of us .
@ @ @ @ @ COVID , we ’ ve got to deliver a vaccine , and we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ hard job of rebuilding our economy , our downtown and continuing all the work on @ @ @ @ @ spent the whole year campaigning to keep the job , or I can focus all @ @ @ @ @ job .
And I think there ’ s only one right choice for Seattle and @ @ @ @ @ to do the job .
”

“I’ve decided that I will not seek a second term,” Durkan told KING 5. “2020 has just been a brutal year, but we have some really tough months ahead of us. We still have to fight COVID, we’ve got to deliver a vaccine, and we’re gonna have a really hard job of rebuilding our economy, our downtown and continuing all the work on equity. I could have spent the whole year campaigning to keep the job, or I can focus all my energies on doing the job. And I think there’s only one right choice for Seattle and that’s for me to do the job.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Gonna be an interesting week

Gonna be an interesting week

WELL : Texas Sues Georgia , Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin at Supreme Court over Election Rules .
The @ @ @ @ @ lawsuit directly with the U.S. Supreme Court shortly before midnight on Monday challenging the election @ @ @ @ @ , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin on the grounds that they violate the Constitution .
Texas @ @ @ @ @ the Electors Clause of the Constitution because they made changes to voting rules and procedures @ @ @ @ @ executive actions , but not through the state legislatures .
Additionally , Texas argues that @ @ @ @ @ rules and procedures in different counties within the states , violating the Constitution ’ s @ @ @ @ @ , Texas argues that there were “ voting irregularities ” in these states as a @ @ @ @ @

WELL: Texas Sues Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin at Supreme Court over Election Rules.
The State of Texas filed a lawsuit directly with the U.S. Supreme Court shortly before midnight on Monday challenging the election procedures in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on the grounds that they violate the Constitution.
Texas argues that these states violated the Electors Clause of the Constitution because they made changes to voting rules and procedures through the courts or through executive actions, but not through the state legislatures. Additionally, Texas argues that there were differences in voting rules and procedures in different counties within the states, violating the Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause. Finally, Texas argues that there were “voting irregularities” in these states as a result of the above.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--‘V Day’ in the UK as grandmother, 90, becomes first person in the WORLD to get approved Covid jab.

UK media ’ s calling today V Day , praising the rollout of the Great New Saviour , the Vaccine @ @ @ @ @ Health Minister pretending to cry about it… Hancock pretending to cry as the first vaccine @ @ @ @ @ looks more like he ’ s stifling a giggle at how easy it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ pigs to line up holding their arms out

UK media’s calling today V Day, praising the rollout of the Great New Saviour, the Vaccine. Here’s the Health Minister pretending to cry about it…
Hancock pretending to cry as the first vaccine is given, when it looks more like he’s stifling a giggle at how easy it’s been to get the guinea pigs to line up holding their arms out
pic.twitter.com/LdZ1EACERX
— Active-Patriot (@PatriotActive66) December 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Why a Gold Standard Return Will Likely Never Happen | Michael Klein

Talk of a return to a gold standard was reignited with President Trump ’ s nomination of Judy Shelton , @ @ @ @ @ monetary system , to the Fed Board of Governors .
But for Michael Klein , @ @ @ @ @ at Tufts University ’ s Fletcher School , the discussion should be put to rest @ @ @ @ @ This is the thesis in his latest essay , “ What ’ s the Gold @ @ @ @ @ the U.S .
Benefit from a Dollar That Isn ’ t Tied to the Value @ @ @ @ @ Metal ?
” In an in-depth interview with Daniela Cambone , Klein shares his case @ @ @ @ @ has caused a stir in the financial community .

Stansberry Research, Released on 12/4/20
Talk of a return to a gold standard was reignited with President Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton, an advocate of the bygone monetary system, to the Fed Board of Governors. But for Michael Klein, Professor of International Economic Affairs at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, the discussion should be put to rest once and for all.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This is the thesis in his latest essay, “What’s the Gold Standard, and Why Does the U.S. Benefit from a Dollar That Isn’t Tied to the Value of a Glittery Hunk of Metal?” In an in-depth interview with Daniela Cambone, Klein shares his case against the gold standard that has caused a stir in the financial community.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--Technically Speaking: Margin Debt Confirms Market Exuberance

During the past couple of weeks , I have discussed the rising levels of bullishness in the markets .
We have pointed to indicators like extreme investor positioning , put/call ratios , etc .
However , the current surge in margin debt also confirms market exuberance .
First , we have to step back a bit .
We previously discussed why the 35 % decline in March was only a “ correction ” and not a “ bear market.
” As noted in “ March Was Only A Correction , ” there is a significant difference .
Margin debt also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Everything Is At An All-Time High Before we dig further into what margin debt tells us , let ’ s begin with where we are currently .
Greg Feirman recently summed it up nicely .
He is correct .
As we discussed in “ Sign , Sign , Everywhere A Sign , ” investors are now “ all in ” in terms of portfolio risk .
“ Fear of missing out has taken over from the fear of losing money .
If people are risk-tolerant and afraid of being out of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which case you can ’ t find any bargains .
That ’ s where we are now .
That ’ s what the Fed engineered by putting rates at zero .
“ , , , we are back to where we were a year ago—uncertainty , prospective returns that are even lower than they were a year ago , and higher asset prices than a year ago .
People are back to having to take on more risk to get return .
At Oaktree , we are back to a cautious approach .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in which you would be buying with both hands .
The prospective returns are low on everything.
” This exuberance requires “ fuel , ” which brings us to margin debt .
As I explained previously : The last sentence is the most important .
The issue with margin debt , in particular , is that the unwinding of leverage is NOT at the investor ’ s discretion .
It is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place .
( In other words , if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the broker-dealer will do it for you . )
When lenders fear they may not recoup their credit-lines , they force the borrower to either put in more cash or sell assets to cover the debt .
The problem is that “ margin calls ” generally happen all at once , as falling asset prices impact all lenders simultaneously .
Margin debt is NOT an issue – until it is .
It is when an “ event ” causes lenders to “ panic ” that margin becomes problematic .
We have seen margin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The first was during the 2008 financial-crisis that forced Lehman into bankruptcy .
The second time was in March of this year .
How do we know that March was a “ Margin Call ?
” There are two reasons .
• The Fed rushed to the rescue of the banks ( again ) as credit risk went parabolic ; and , • The chart below of “ free credit ” balances shows the massive liquidation of margin debt as brokerage firms called in credit lines .
Free credit balances are crucial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unused margin plus cash , ” which gets subtracted from “ outstanding margin.
” In other words , like a credit card with a zero balance , when the lined gets paid off , there is a positive free cash balance ; when it is negative , it shows the utilization of the “ credit.
” The chart below overlays the two : • The actual level of margin debt , and ; The sharp reversal of margin debt from the March lows shows the speculation level , which has ensued in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interventions .
( Margin debt lags by 2-months , so I have used the average margin debt growth rate from March to estimate the last 2-months .
Given the rapid surge in the market in November , I am probably underestimating current levels . )
As noted , when markets are rising and investors are taking on additional leverage to increase buying power , margin debt supports the advance .
However , the magnitude of the recent surge in margin debt also confirms the current levels of investor exuberance .
The chart shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market .
I have inverted free cash balances , so the relationship between increases in margin debt and the market is better represented .
Note that during the 1987 correction , the 2015-2016 “ Brexit/Taper Tantrum , ” the 2018 “ Rate Hike Mistake , ” the “ COVID Dip , ” the market never broke its uptrend , AND cash balances never turned positive .
Both a break of the rising bullish trend and positive free cash balances were the 2000 and 2008 bear markets ’ hallmarks .
Such is another reason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Had such occurred , the positive free cash balances , and significantly reduced valuation levels , would have supported the beginning of a longer-term bull market .
However , with negative cash balances surging and extreme deviations from long-term means , investors are likely once again set up for another reversion .
Such is not even to mention the long-term correlations to valuations .
As noted in “ Why This Isn ’ t 1920 , ” the highest correlation between stock prices and future returns comes from valuations .
Margin data goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at margin debt and its relationship to the market .
The chart below is a “ stochastic indicator ” of margin debt overlaid against the S & P 500 .
The stochastic indicator is a momentum indicator developed by George C. Lane in the 1950s .
The chart shows the position of the most recent margin debt level relative to its previous high-low range .
The indicator measures the momentum of margin debt by comparing the closing level with the range over the past 21-months .
The stochastic indicator represents the speed and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Such means the stochastic indicator changes direction before the market .
As such , it can be considered a leading indicator .
Currently , the indicator is back to overbought levels , which suggests market risk has risen also .
Our stochastic measures of the market itself are confirming much the same .
I want to make a critical point here .
Margin debt , like valuations , are “ terrible market timing ” indicators and should not be used as such .
Rising levels of margin debt are a measure of investor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take out debt against investments when shares are rising , and they have more value in their portfolios against which they can borrow .
However , the opposite is also true as falling asset prices reduce the amount of credit available , and the liquidation of assets must occur to bring the account back into balance .
I agree and disagree that margin debt levels are simply a function of market activity and have no bearing on the outcome of the market .
As we saw in March , the double-whammy of collapsing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the coronavirus triggered a sharp sell-off fueled by margin liquidation .
Currently , the majority of investors have forgotten about March .
Or worse , assume it can ’ t happen again for a variety of short-sighted reasons .
However , the “ gas tank ” is full once again as investors are more exuberant now than at the peak of the market in 2000 , as noted by Sentiment Trader yesterday .
Sure , this time could indeed be different .
That has remained the “ sirens song ” of investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trader summed up the last time we wrote on this topic , such is usually not the case .
It ’ s not too late to take action to preserve capital now , so you have the money to invest with later .
While we remain long-biased in our equity portfolios , we have begun to reduce some of our big winners ( take profits ) and adding to our more defensive-oriented positions .
While we certainly want to participate in the market ’ s current upside , we will also give up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reversion .
While it certainly may “ feel ” like the market “ just won ’ t go down , ” it is worth remembering the sage words of Warren Buffett .
In the short-term , holding higher cash levels will indeed provide some drag between our portfolio and the major market index .
However , when the first “ cold snap ” washes across the markets , our preparation should protect us against the “ bite.
” We remain “ bullish ” on the markets currently as momentum is still in play @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is keenly aware of the signs “ Winter ” is approaching , we are just taking some precautionary actions .
To spin a bit of Warren ’ s quote :

by Lance Roberts
During the past couple of weeks, I have discussed the rising levels of bullishness in the markets. We have pointed to indicators like extreme investor positioning, put/call ratios, etc. However, the current surge in margin debt also confirms market exuberance.
First, we have to step back a bit. We previously discussed why the 35% decline in March was only a “correction” and not a “bear market.” As noted in “March Was Only A Correction,” there is a significant difference.
“The distinction is essential. ‘Corrections’ generally occur over short time frames, do not break the prevailing trend in prices, and are quickly resolved by markets reversing to new highs.
‘Bear Markets’ tend to be long-term affairs where prices grind sideways or lower over several months as valuations are reverted. Using monthly closing data, the “correction” in March was unusually swift but did not break the long-term bullish trend. Such suggests the bull market that began in 2009 is still intact as long as the monthly trend line holds.
Margin debt also confirms the correction and the recent exuberance.
Everything Is At An All-Time High
Before we dig further into what margin debt tells us, let’s begin with where we are currently. Greg Feirman recently summed it up nicely.
“Friday was an absolute breakout to new ATHs-fest (All-Time Highs). The S&P closed at a new all-time high just below 3,700. The Russell tacked on another 2.37% and closed just below 1900. Junk bonds and regional banks are super strong. Of course, if the indexes are breaking out, so are a lot of individual stocks.”
He is correct. As we discussed in “Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign,” investors are now “all in” in terms of portfolio risk.
As Howard Marks noted in a recent Bloomberg interview:
“Fear of missing out has taken over from the fear of losing money. If people are risk-tolerant and afraid of being out of the market, they buy aggressively, in which case you can’t find any bargains. That’s where we are now. That’s what the Fed engineered by putting rates at zero. “,,,we are back to where we were a year ago—uncertainty, prospective returns that are even lower than they were a year ago, and higher asset prices than a year ago. People are back to having to take on more risk to get return. At Oaktree, we are back to a cautious approach. This is not the kind of environment in which you would be buying with both hands. The prospective returns are low on everything.”
The Issue Of Margin Debt
This exuberance requires “fuel,” which brings us to margin debt. As I explained previously:
“Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. What margin debt represents is the amount of speculation that is occurring in the market. In other words, margin debt is the ‘gasoline,’ which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets. However, ‘leverage’ also works in reverse as it supplies the accelerant for more significant declines as lenders ‘force’ the sale of assets to cover credit lines without regard to the borrower’s position.”
The last sentence is the most important. The issue with margin debt, in particular, is that the unwinding of leverage is NOT at the investor’s discretion. It is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place. (In other words, if you don’t sell to cover, the broker-dealer will do it for you.) When lenders fear they may not recoup their credit-lines, they force the borrower to either put in more cash or sell assets to cover the debt. The problem is that “margin calls” generally happen all at once, as falling asset prices impact all lenders simultaneously.
Margin debt is NOT an issue – until it is.
Event Risk
It is when an “event” causes lenders to “panic” that margin becomes problematic.
We have seen margin liquidation events twice in the last 15-years. The first was during the 2008 financial-crisis that forced Lehman into bankruptcy.
The second time was in March of this year.
How do we know that March was a “Margin Call?”
There are two reasons.
The Fed rushed to the rescue of the banks (again) as credit risk went parabolic; and, The chart below of “free credit” balances shows the massive liquidation of margin debt as brokerage firms called in credit lines.
Free credit balances are crucial as it is the difference of “unused margin plus cash,” which gets subtracted from “outstanding margin.” In other words, like a credit card with a zero balance, when the lined gets paid off, there is a positive free cash balance; when it is negative, it shows the utilization of the “credit.”
The chart below overlays the two:
The actual level of margin debt, and; The level of “free cash” balances.
The sharp reversal of margin debt from the March lows shows the speculation level, which has ensued in the markets due to the Fed’s interventions. (Margin debt lags by 2-months, so I have used the average margin debt growth rate from March to estimate the last 2-months. Given the rapid surge in the market in November, I am probably underestimating current levels.)
Margin Debt Confirms The Exuberance
As noted, when markets are rising and investors are taking on additional leverage to increase buying power, margin debt supports the advance. However, the magnitude of the recent surge in margin debt also confirms the current levels of investor exuberance.
The chart shows the relationship between cash balances and the market. I have inverted free cash balances, so the relationship between increases in margin debt and the market is better represented.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Note that during the 1987 correction, the 2015-2016 “Brexit/Taper Tantrum,” the 2018 “Rate Hike Mistake,” the “COVID Dip,” the market never broke its uptrend, AND cash balances never turned positive.
Both a break of the rising bullish trend and positive free cash balances were the 2000 and 2008 bear markets’ hallmarks. Such is another reason that March was just a “correction.”
Had such occurred, the positive free cash balances, and significantly reduced valuation levels, would have supported the beginning of a longer-term bull market. However, with negative cash balances surging and extreme deviations from long-term means, investors are likely once again set up for another reversion. Such is not even to mention the long-term correlations to valuations.
As noted in “Why This Isn’t 1920,” the highest correlation between stock prices and future returns comes from valuations.
Overbought
Margin data goes back to 1959 to get a long-look at margin debt and its relationship to the market. The chart below is a “stochastic indicator” of margin debt overlaid against the S&P 500.
The stochastic indicator is a momentum indicator developed by George C. Lane in the 1950s. The chart shows the position of the most recent margin debt level relative to its previous high-low range. The indicator measures the momentum of margin debt by comparing the closing level with the range over the past 21-months.
The stochastic indicator represents the speed and momentum of margin debt level changes. Such means the stochastic indicator changes direction before the market. As such, it can be considered a leading indicator.
Currently, the indicator is back to overbought levels, which suggests market risk has risen also. Our stochastic measures of the market itself are confirming much the same.
It’s All Coincident
I want to make a critical point here. Margin debt, like valuations, are “terrible market timing” indicators and should not be used as such.
Rising levels of margin debt are a measure of investor confidence. Investors are more willing to take out debt against investments when shares are rising, and they have more value in their portfolios against which they can borrow. However, the opposite is also true as falling asset prices reduce the amount of credit available, and the liquidation of assets must occur to bring the account back into balance.
I agree and disagree that margin debt levels are simply a function of market activity and have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
As we saw in March, the double-whammy of collapsing oil prices and economic shutdown in response to the coronavirus triggered a sharp sell-off fueled by margin liquidation.
Currently, the majority of investors have forgotten about March. Or worse, assume it can’t happen again for a variety of short-sighted reasons. However, the “gas tank” is full once again as investors are more exuberant now than at the peak of the market in 2000, as noted by Sentiment Trader yesterday.
Excuses Won’t Work
Sure, this time could indeed be different. That has remained the “sirens song” of investors since March. However, as Sentiment Trader summed up the last time we wrote on this topic, such is usually not the case.
“Whenever some of this data fails to lead to the expected outcome for a few weeks or more, we hear the usual chorus of opinions about why it doesn’t work anymore. This has been consistent for 20 years, like… Decimalization will destroy all breadth figures (2000)
The terror attacks will permanently alter investors’ time preferences (2001)
The pricking of the internet bubble will forever change option skews (2002)
Easy money will render sentiment indicators useless (2007)
The financial crisis means relying on any historical precedents are invalid (2008)
The Fed’s interventions mean any indicators are no longer useful (2010 – present) All of these sound good, and for a time it seemed like they were accurate. Then markets would revert and the arguments would get swept into the dustbins of history.”
It’s not too late to take action to preserve capital now, so you have the money to invest with later.
A Lot Like Sex
While we remain long-biased in our equity portfolios, we have begun to reduce some of our big winners (take profits) and adding to our more defensive-oriented positions. While we certainly want to participate in the market’s current upside, we will also give up some gains to protect against the eventual reversion.
While it certainly may “feel” like the market “just won’t go down,” it is worth remembering the sage words of Warren Buffett.
“The market is a lot like sex, it feels best at the end.”
In the short-term, holding higher cash levels will indeed provide some drag between our portfolio and the major market index. However, when the first “cold snap” washes across the markets, our preparation should protect us against the “bite.”
We remain “bullish” on the markets currently as momentum is still in play. However, just as any farmer is keenly aware of the signs “Winter” is approaching, we are just taking some precautionary actions.
To spin a bit of Warren’s quote:
“If you engage in the market in an unprotected fashion, you may not want the unexpected surprise.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--The FDA is now releasing a list of possible side effects of the vaccine.

This Just In ...
Stimulus plan may NOT include $ 1200 check for those who Need it Most .
There @ @ @ @ @

Its straight from FDA’s website. www.fda.gov/media/143557/download Go to page 17
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Alpha-20


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-08--What Happens When Confidence Falls Apart?

There are intriguing interconnections between the election , the virus , and the markets .
While we may never know how deep and wide the political elites ’ effort to gain control over our government goes , it appears to be vast .
Although it ’ s still unknown whether fraud altered the overall election outcome , the evidence of fraud is real .
Corrupt poll workers and election officials have been identified in numerous locations along with voting machine “ glitches.
” Some judges seem to be ignoring evidence while affirming Joe Biden ’ s victory .
All the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major social media platforms are working overtime to convince people the “ evidence of widespread fraud doesn ’ t exist.
” Some of this year ’ s election shenanigans involves mail-in ballots .
The huge increase in absentee voting provided lots of opportunities to cheat .
Election officials would never have been able to push through the enormous increase in absentee voting without the COVID-19 pandemic as cover .
Nor would they have been able justify moving poll watchers behind barricades too far away to properly observe .
The pandemic proved convenient for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a long history of using fear as a tool .
Another oddity is the euphoric activity in the financial markets since after the advent of the virus .
It has been hard to make sense of surging stock prices , given the economic devastation associated with lockdowns .
We know that Wall Street bankers have been the beneficiaries of trillions of dollars of Fed largesse and that they are experts at manipulating markets .
Rising stock prices are a nice complement to the media story about Biden winning the election .
If Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be good for America .
Narrative control is one context where otherwise incomprehensible stock market action DOES make sense .
But what happens if the narrative falls apart ?
The deep state may be losing control .
If they counted on blind trust in the election system and the media to censor anyone questioning Biden ’ s legitimacy , they were wrong .
Tens of millions of Americans likely won ’ t accept Biden regardless of whether he gets inaugurated in January .
If a smooth transfer of power doesn ’ t happen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real turbulence in the markets .
Regardless of who winds up in the oval office , Americans are unlikely to agree on his legitimacy .
A lack of consensus on an issue as foundational as which person is in charge of the executive branch is something modern markets have never contended with .
It is just the sort of pin that may eventually prick the bubble in the equity and bond markets .
Wise investors are diversifying out of paper assets denominated in U.S. dollars .

by: Clint Siegner
There are intriguing interconnections between the election, the virus, and the markets.
While we may never know how deep and wide the political elites’ effort to gain control over our government goes, it appears to be vast. Although it’s still unknown whether fraud altered the overall election outcome, the evidence of fraud is real.
Corrupt poll workers and election officials have been identified in numerous locations along with voting machine “glitches.” Some judges seem to be ignoring evidence while affirming Joe Biden’s victory.
All the while, the corporate media plus the major social media platforms are working overtime to convince people the “evidence of widespread fraud doesn’t exist.”
Some of this year’s election shenanigans involves mail-in ballots. The huge increase in absentee voting provided lots of opportunities to cheat.
The implications are troubling.
Election officials would never have been able to push through the enormous increase in absentee voting without the COVID-19 pandemic as cover. Nor would they have been able justify moving poll watchers behind barricades too far away to properly observe.
The pandemic proved convenient for the deep state and statists who have a long history of using fear as a tool.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Another oddity is the euphoric activity in the financial markets since after the advent of the virus. It has been hard to make sense of surging stock prices, given the economic devastation associated with lockdowns.
We know that Wall Street bankers have been the beneficiaries of trillions of dollars of Fed largesse and that they are experts at manipulating markets.
Rising stock prices are a nice complement to the media story about Biden winning the election. If Biden is good for markets, he must be good for America.
Narrative control is one context where otherwise incomprehensible stock market action DOES make sense. But what happens if the narrative falls apart?
The deep state may be losing control. If they counted on blind trust in the election system and the media to censor anyone questioning Biden’s legitimacy, they were wrong.
Tens of millions of Americans likely won’t accept Biden regardless of whether he gets inaugurated in January.
If a smooth transfer of power doesn’t happen, investors should be ready for some real turbulence in the markets.
Regardless of who winds up in the oval office, Americans are unlikely to agree on his legitimacy. A lack of consensus on an issue as foundational as which person is in charge of the executive branch is something modern markets have never contended with.
It is just the sort of pin that may eventually prick the bubble in the equity and bond markets. Wise investors are diversifying out of paper assets denominated in U.S. dollars.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-09--Bracing For A Very Painful Year: 38% Of Americans Say That They Will Spend 2021 In “Survival Mode”

If nearly 40 percent of the entire nation anticipates spending the next 12 months in “ survival mode ” , that is not a good sign for what the coming year will bring .
Traditionally , Americans have looked forward to the turn of the year with tremendous optimism , but this time around things are very , very different .
2020 brought us the COVID pandemic , tremendous violence and civil unrest in our major cities , and the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s .
Sadly , a large chunk of the country is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because one recent survey found that 38 percent of all Americans plan to spend 2021 in “ survival mode ” … The biggest reason why so many anticipate being in “ survival mode ” is because of the financial problems that they experienced this year .
According to that same survey , a whopping 68 percent of all Americans say that they experienced some sort of “ financial setback ” in 2020… As I keep reminding my readers , Americans have filed more than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have been able to keep their jobs have fallen on very hard times .
Another new survey found that approximately one-third of all full-time workers in the U.S. “ have experienced a pay cut ” in 2020… If you were employed throughout all of 2020 and you are still able to pay all of your bills on time , you should be very thankful for your blessings , because you are now in the minority .
For most Americans , the past 12 months have been exceedingly painful , and this new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic suffering long into 2021 .
Some industries that were absolutely devastated by the first round of lockdowns are officially in panic mode at this point .
For example , we have already permanently lost approximately 17 percent of all of the restaurants in the entire country , and the National Restaurant Association is warning that 10,000 more could permanently shut down “ in the next three weeks ” … About 17 % of America ’ s restaurants have already permanently closed this year , with thousands more on the brink according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Association is publicly pleading with Congress to pass new stimulus to help the industry that has been damaged by the pandemic .
The group said Monday that 10,000 restaurants could close in the next three weeks , in addition to the 110,000 that have already shuttered in 2020 .
Even during the best of times , running a successful restaurant is exceedingly difficult .
The margins are razor thin , new competition is always popping up , and employees are constantly coming and going .
When you add a global pandemic on top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become almost impossible for many eateries to keep going , and we are being told that the future for the industry looks quite “ bleak ” … • 87 % of full-service restaurants ( independent , chain , and franchise ) report an average 36 % drop in sales revenue .
For an industry with an average profit margin of 5 % -6 % , this is simply unsustainable .
83 % of full-service operators expect sales to be even worse over the next three months .
• Although sales are significantly lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their costs have not fallen by a proportional level .
59 % of operators say their total labor costs ( as a percentage of sales ) are higher than they were pre-pandemic .
• 58 % of chain and independent full-service operators expect continued furloughs and layoffs for at least the next three months .
Of course it isn ’ t just the restaurant industry that is laying off workers in large numbers .
Just about every day there are more major layoff announcements in the news , and many experts are expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we make the transition into 2021 .
Without paychecks coming in , millions of unemployed Americans are unable to pay the bills , and we are being warned that we could be facing a historic tsunami of evictions starting just after the holiday season… The day after Christmas , the extended unemployment benefits that have kept 12 million people and their families afloat are scheduled to expire .
Then , mere days after that cliff , on New Year ’ s Day , a national ban on renter evictions from the Centers for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to lapse .
Overnight , an unprecedented bill of $ 70 billion in unpaid back rent and utilities will come due , according to estimates by Moody ’ s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi .
In all , up to 40 million people could be threatened with eviction over the coming months , research from the Aspen Institute says .
The politicians insist that they are keeping us caged up for our own good , but the truth is that they are absolutely destroying millions upon millions of lives in the process .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether or not the lockdowns have helped to prevent the spread of the virus , but what we do know is that thousands of businesses have been permanently destroyed , millions of jobs have been lost , more people are committing suicide , and Americans are increasingly engaging in self-destructive behaviors… If we can not even handle the COVID pandemic , how in the world is our society going to be able to handle what else is coming ?
As things continue to unravel all around us , people are going to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans are already in “ survival mode ” , and the road ahead is certainly not going to get any easier .

by Michael Snyder
If nearly 40 percent of the entire nation anticipates spending the next 12 months in “survival mode”, that is not a good sign for what the coming year will bring. Traditionally, Americans have looked forward to the turn of the year with tremendous optimism, but this time around things are very, very different. 2020 brought us the COVID pandemic, tremendous violence and civil unrest in our major cities, and the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Sadly, a large chunk of the country is anticipating more difficulties in the coming months, because one recent survey found that 38 percent of all Americans plan to spend 2021 in “survival mode”…
Of the 3,011 surveyed adults, over 38% said they will spend the year in “survival mode,” meaning they’ll focus on the day-to-day rather than long-term goals to try to get themselves and their families through 2021.
The biggest reason why so many anticipate being in “survival mode” is because of the financial problems that they experienced this year. According to that same survey, a whopping 68 percent of all Americans say that they experienced some sort of “financial setback” in 2020…
Although some respondents maintained their usual income over the past year, 68% had setbacks. Of those, 23% lost a job or household income; 20% had an unexpected non-health emergency; 18% had to provide unexpected financial aid to family or friends; and 16% had a health emergency in their family.
As I keep reminding my readers, Americans have filed more than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits this year, but even many of those that have been able to keep their jobs have fallen on very hard times.
Another new survey found that approximately one-third of all full-time workers in the U.S. “have experienced a pay cut” in 2020…
Roughly 1 in 3 full-time workers have experienced a pay cut due to the coronavirus pandemic this year, according to a recent MagnifyMoney survey of 984 professionals surveyed Nov. 6 to 11.
If you were employed throughout all of 2020 and you are still able to pay all of your bills on time, you should be very thankful for your blessings, because you are now in the minority.
For most Americans, the past 12 months have been exceedingly painful, and this new round of lockdowns promises to extend the economic suffering long into 2021.
Some industries that were absolutely devastated by the first round of lockdowns are officially in panic mode at this point. For example, we have already permanently lost approximately 17 percent of all of the restaurants in the entire country, and the National Restaurant Association is warning that 10,000 more could permanently shut down “in the next three weeks”…
About 17% of America’s restaurants have already permanently closed this year, with thousands more on the brink according to a new report. The National Restaurant Association is publicly pleading with Congress to pass new stimulus to help the industry that has been damaged by the pandemic. The group said Monday that 10,000 restaurants could close in the next three weeks, in addition to the 110,000 that have already shuttered in 2020.
Even during the best of times, running a successful restaurant is exceedingly difficult. The margins are razor thin, new competition is always popping up, and employees are constantly coming and going.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
When you add a global pandemic on top of all of that, it has become almost impossible for many eateries to keep going, and we are being told that the future for the industry looks quite “bleak”…
87% of full-service restaurants (independent, chain, and franchise) report an average 36% drop in sales revenue. For an industry with an average profit margin of 5%-6%, this is simply unsustainable . 83% of full-service operators expect sales to be even worse over the next three months.
For an industry with an average profit margin of 5%-6%, this is simply . Although sales are significantly lower for most independent and franchise owners, their costs have not fallen by a proportional level. 59% of operators say their total labor costs (as a percentage of sales) are higher than they were pre-pandemic.
The future remains bleak. 58% of chain and independent full-service operators expect continued furloughs and layoffs for at least the next three months.
Of course it isn’t just the restaurant industry that is laying off workers in large numbers.
Just about every day there are more major layoff announcements in the news, and many experts are expecting the job loss numbers to accelerate as we make the transition into 2021.
Without paychecks coming in, millions of unemployed Americans are unable to pay the bills, and we are being warned that we could be facing a historic tsunami of evictions starting just after the holiday season…
The day after Christmas, the extended unemployment benefits that have kept 12 million people and their families afloat are scheduled to expire. Then, mere days after that cliff, on New Year’s Day, a national ban on renter evictions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also set to lapse. Overnight, an unprecedented bill of $70 billion in unpaid back rent and utilities will come due, according to estimates by Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi. In all, up to 40 million people could be threatened with eviction over the coming months, research from the Aspen Institute says.
The politicians insist that they are keeping us caged up for our own good, but the truth is that they are absolutely destroying millions upon millions of lives in the process.
There is a lot of debate about whether or not the lockdowns have helped to prevent the spread of the virus, but what we do know is that thousands of businesses have been permanently destroyed, millions of jobs have been lost, more people are committing suicide, and Americans are increasingly engaging in self-destructive behaviors…
Overall, one in three Americans report binge drinking during the coronavirus pandemic. The average person also reports spending about four weeks in lockdown this year; spending 21 hours a day at home. More than seven in 10 people in the survey did not even leave their home for work.
If we cannot even handle the COVID pandemic, how in the world is our society going to be able to handle what else is coming?
As things continue to unravel all around us, people are going to be in great need of hope.
Millions of Americans are already in “survival mode”, and the road ahead is certainly not going to get any easier.