investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--Prepare Now: The Dollar’s Crash Is Only Just Beginning

It ’ s time to make preparations for a complete dollar collapse .
It ’ s being destroyed by design , but what we are experiencing now in the economy is only the beginning .
The rest of this year will be chaotic at best .
The greenback ’ s recent weakness “ is the beginning of a very large move ” that could hurt the droves of investors exposed to it through their holdings in United States stocks and bonds , Ulf Lindahl said .
The end of the dollar is imminent .
It will happen .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Up !
The Dollar Is Being Destroyed By Design !
The Federal Reserve ’ s constant money creation is going to make things difficult for most in the coming year .
We could even see the pressure to use their new digital dollar within the next year too , which will be a system of slavery .
It ’ ll be up to us to make sure we do not accept or use their new digital dollar , but many will choose too , especially if it ’ s tied to free money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s research breaks down the dollar ’ s fluctuations over the decades into 15-year cycles that show the greenback weakening sharply against the euro before recovering most of the losses .
Though the dollar ’ s drop has slowed in recent weeks , that ’ s “ really an opportunity to get out of the dollar , ” he said .
Most bearish investors expect the dollar to depreciate on the back of stronger economic growth prospects outside the United States , rock-bottom U.S. interest rates , and concerns that programs to allay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are inflating fiscal deficits .
–Reuters As we ’ ve said before , gold and silver will be the best way to prepare , have something barterable , and hold real money .
If you want to get into cryptocurrency , now might be a good time .
Remember , to pay attention , be aware of what ’ s happening , and prepare the best you can while refusing to live in fear .
Right now , that ’ s the best solution .
Until enough people wake up to the real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanent lasting changes , but we can make changes on our own that can give us each more freedom .
Live free and fearless in a totalitarian world .
That ’ s really what the rulers and the New World Order psychos fear the most .
The Establishment Doesn ’ t Fear Trump , And It Doesn ’ t Fear Bernie .
It Fears You .

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
It’s time to make preparations for a complete dollar collapse. It’s being destroyed by design, but what we are experiencing now in the economy is only the beginning. The rest of this year will be chaotic at best.
The greenback’s recent weakness “is the beginning of a very large move” that could hurt the droves of investors exposed to it through their holdings in United States stocks and bonds, Ulf Lindahl said. The end of the dollar is imminent. It will happen. It’s best to prepare now.
Wake Up! The Dollar Is Being Destroyed By Design!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Federal Reserve’s constant money creation is going to make things difficult for most in the coming year. We could even see the pressure to use their new digital dollar within the next year too, which will be a system of slavery. It’ll be up to us to make sure we do not accept or use their new digital dollar, but many will choose too, especially if it’s tied to free money or universal basic income.
Lindahl’s research breaks down the dollar’s fluctuations over the decades into 15-year cycles that show the greenback weakening sharply against the euro before recovering most of the losses. Though the dollar’s drop has slowed in recent weeks, that’s “really an opportunity to get out of the dollar,” he said. Most bearish investors expect the dollar to depreciate on the back of stronger economic growth prospects outside the United States, rock-bottom U.S. interest rates, and concerns that programs to allay the coronavirus pandemic’s economic fallout are inflating fiscal deficits. –Reuters
As we’ve said before, gold and silver will be the best way to prepare, have something barterable, and hold real money. If you want to get into cryptocurrency, now might be a good time.
Remember, to pay attention, be aware of what’s happening, and prepare the best you can while refusing to live in fear. Right now, that’s the best solution. Until enough people wake up to the real problem, we cannot unite for permanent lasting changes, but we can make changes on our own that can give us each more freedom. Live free and fearless in a totalitarian world. That’s really what the rulers and the New World Order psychos fear the most.
The Establishment Doesn’t Fear Trump, And It Doesn’t Fear Bernie. It Fears You.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--COMEX EFP (Ab)Use Has Collapsed

COMEX EFP (Ab)Use Has Collapsed

In a sure sign that the times have changed , the scam of “ Exchanges For Physical ” that The Bullion Banks have utilized for several years as a risk-free profit method appears to have finally collapsed .
If you ’ ve been following along in these pages , then this surely is not “ breaking news “ .
We ’ ve written about the Bank abuse of EFPs on multiple occasions over the past three years .
Here are just a couple of the links : Astute followers of the precious metals also know that the entire digital derivative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the advent of QE∞ and a fracture in the global physical metal market .
Back in June of this year , we wrote about the collapse in EFP abuse that followed the craziness of late March .
Please review this link before continuing : From that June post , please be sure to see this passage : Well , it ’ s clear that the bullion banks were abusing this process to make a steady , simple , and relatively risk-free profit each day by arbitraging the price fluctuations between New York and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ selling a COMEX futures contract in New York and then selling or buying a spot contract for delivery in London and capturing the spread between the two .
If you ’ re HSBC and doing this with 10,000 contracts , a simple $ 2 spread nets you a tidy $ 2,000,000 profit .
Good work if you can get it .
All is well and fine for this trade so long as there ’ s physical metal to deliver versus your spot sale—and this is where the entire machine fell apart in late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and refineries were closed due to Covid-19 , and the supply chain of physical metal to the highly leveraged global gold market broke down in spectacular fashion .
Without physical metal to deliver , the bullion banks playing the EFP game were forced to close positions in a true short squeeze .
The result ?
It wasn ’ t just HSBC that ( literally ) took it in the shorts .
See this regarding CIBC : www.reuters.com/article/us-cibc-gold/canadas-cibc-lost-64-million-in-a-day-on-paper-in-gold-market-turmoil-idUSKBN2343K9 In the three months since , Bank EFP abuse has continued to decline .
Thus it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s pricing scheme suffered irreparable damage back in March and it won ’ t be returning in full force anytime soon .
And how significantly has EFP abuse fallen off in 2020 ?
See below .
Keep in mind that each contract “ exchanged for physical ” allegedly moves 100 ounces of gold .
So when you see 213,671 contracts “ exchanged for physical ” in just January of 2018 , that ’ s a total of 21,367,100 ounces or about 665 METRIC TONNES !
JANUARY : 213,671 EFPs in 2018 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
FEBRUARY : 196,076 in 2018 .
111,476 in 2019 .
188,543 in 2020 .
APRIL : 221,542 in 2018 .
141,311 in 2019 .
71,527 in 2020 .
MAY : 225,279 in 2018 .
151,276 in 2019 .
79,230 in 2020 .
JUNE : 207,347 in 2018 .
202,656 in 2019 .
65,405 in 2020 .
JULY : 201,140 in 2018 .
187,859 in 2019 .
91,685 in 2020 .
AUGUST : 152,805 in 2018 .
201,473 in 2019 .
52,275 in 2020 .
As you can see , while not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down by as much as 75 % versus years past .
This is significant , as it betrays both a lack of physical metal and a lack of counter-party confidence .
This also explains why the spread between spot gold and the front month futures contract persists .
When you lack confidence in your counter-party , what was once perceived as a risk-free arbitrage becomes something quite risky , indeed .
So we ’ ll continue to monitor the EFP and spot-futures relationship very closely in the months ahead .
If the trend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would seem that we are slowly making progress toward a more physically-based pricing system .
And as you likely know , any system that discovers price based upon actual physical metal instead of derivative contracts is likely to benefit all of us who hold and stack that actual physical metal .

by Craig Hemke via Sprott Money News
In a sure sign that the times have changed, the scam of “Exchanges For Physical” that The Bullion Banks have utilized for several years as a risk-free profit method appears to have finally collapsed.
If you’ve been following along in these pages, then this surely is not “breaking news“. We’ve written about the Bank abuse of EFPs on multiple occasions over the past three years. Here are just a couple of the links:
Astute followers of the precious metals also know that the entire digital derivative pricing dynamic changed on March 23 with the advent of QE∞ and a fracture in the global physical metal market. Back in June of this year, we wrote about the collapse in EFP abuse that followed the craziness of late March. Please review this link before continuing:
From that June post, please be sure to see this passage:
Well, it’s clear that the bullion banks were abusing this process to make a steady, simple, and relatively risk-free profit each day by arbitraging the price fluctuations between New York and London. In essence, buying or selling a COMEX futures contract in New York and then selling or buying a spot contract for delivery in London and capturing the spread between the two. If you’re HSBC and doing this with 10,000 contracts, a simple $2 spread nets you a tidy $2,000,000 profit. Good work if you can get it.
All is well and fine for this trade so long as there’s physical metal to deliver versus your spot sale—and this is where the entire machine fell apart in late March. Many mints, mines, and refineries were closed due to Covid-19, and the supply chain of physical metal to the highly leveraged global gold market broke down in spectacular fashion. Without physical metal to deliver, the bullion banks playing the EFP game were forced to close positions in a true short squeeze. The result? It wasn’t just HSBC that (literally) took it in the shorts. See this regarding CIBC: www.reuters.com/article/us-cibc-gold/canadas-cibc-lost-64-million-in-a-day-on-paper-in-gold-market-turmoil-idUSKBN2343K9
In the three months since, Bank EFP abuse has continued to decline. Thus it has now become clear that The Bank’s pricing scheme suffered irreparable damage back in March and it won’t be returning in full force anytime soon. And how significantly has EFP abuse fallen off in 2020? See below. Keep in mind that each contract “exchanged for physical” allegedly moves 100 ounces of gold. So when you see 213,671 contracts “exchanged for physical” in just January of 2018, that’s a total of 21,367,100 ounces or about 665 METRIC TONNES!
JANUARY: 213,671 EFPs in 2018. 174,964 in January 2019. 207,674 in 2020.
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FEBRUARY: 196,076 in 2018. 111,476 in 2019. 188,543 in 2020.
MARCH: 242,973 in 2018. 155,401 in 2019. A whopping 362,049.
APRIL: 221,542 in 2018. 141,311 in 2019. 71,527 in 2020.
MAY: 225,279 in 2018. 151,276 in 2019. 79,230 in 2020.
JUNE: 207,347 in 2018. 202,656 in 2019. 65,405 in 2020.
JULY: 201,140 in 2018. 187,859 in 2019. 91,685 in 2020.
AUGUST: 152,805 in 2018. 201,473 in 2019. 52,275 in 2020.
As you can see, while not at ZERO, Bank EFP use is down by as much as 75% versus years past. This is significant, as it betrays both a lack of physical metal and a lack of counter-party confidence. This also explains why the spread between spot gold and the front month futures contract persists. When you lack confidence in your counter-party, what was once perceived as a risk-free arbitrage becomes something quite risky, indeed.
So we’ll continue to monitor the EFP and spot-futures relationship very closely in the months ahead. If the trend away from EFP abuse continues, then it would seem that we are slowly making progress toward a more physically-based pricing system. And as you likely know, any system that discovers price based upon actual physical metal instead of derivative contracts is likely to benefit all of us who hold and stack that actual physical metal.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--Cities Are Burning…Mayors Blame Trump!

Cities Are Burning…Mayors Blame Trump!

by Daniel McAdams and Ron Paul of Ron Paul Liberty Report From Chicago to Portland to Kenosha , US cities @ @ @ @ @ and wanton destruction continues without interruption .
Police are given orders to stand back and @ @ @ @ @ loot , murder , and burn with impunity .
And , as we saw with @ @ @ @ @ those in charge of these burning cities all cry out together , “ it ’ @ @ @ @ @ fault !
” Is it ?
Also in today ’ s episode , WHO ’ @ @ @ @ @ we need more Covid lockdowns even as the truth about the inflated numbers comes out @ @ @ @ @ waves discussing the benefits of hydroxychloroquine .
And the New York Times ( ! )
@ @ @ @ @ worse than useless .
Editor ’ s Note – The featured image of this post @ @ @ @ @

by Daniel McAdams and Ron Paul of Ron Paul Liberty Report
From Chicago to Portland to Kenosha, US cities are in flames. Looting and wanton destruction continues without interruption. Police are given orders to stand back and allow thugs to beat, loot, murder, and burn with impunity. And, as we saw with Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, those in charge of these burning cities all cry out together, “it’s all Trump’s fault!” Is it? Also in today’s episode, WHO’s communist leader screams that we need more Covid lockdowns even as the truth about the inflated numbers comes out. Dr. Scott Atlas making waves discussing the benefits of hydroxychloroquine. And the New York Times (!) reports that Covid tests are worse than useless.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
*****
Editor’s Note – The featured image of this post has the following attribution:


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--CSPAN Caller — “CNN Is The Enemy Of The State”

A CSPAN caller tells @ brianstelter that CNN is the “ enemy of the truth ” and “ dividing our @ @ @ @ @ such as the settlement CNN had to pay to Nick Sandmann.pic.twitter.com/zicQYStMxm

A CSPAN caller tells @brianstelter that CNN is the “enemy of the truth” and “dividing our nation,” citing instances such as the settlement CNN had to pay to Nick Sandmann.pic.twitter.com/zicQYStMxm
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 1, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--Stock Market’s Caged Bear about to Rattle Himself Loose!

I ’ ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October .
Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over .
The bear may soon be back in charge .
The futility of trying to stop the stampeding herd and the Fed fallacy When I pointed out last January that the market was more perilously overpriced than ever and imminently ready to crash , the stock market took one of its most spectacular dives in history just a month later .
( See : “ Stock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in History.
” ) Before the market plunged , I showed that Fed juicing ( quantitative easing ) was at all-time highs and continuing .
That , I noted , made my prediction highly unlikely by most accounts .
I illustrated that with the following graph : Yet , make my prediction I did .
Giddy investors on some sites tried to scorch me under their burning belief that the market couldn ’ t possible fall because the Fed had its rigging all firmly in hand , even though I had noted I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ replied the market was going to fall anyway — likely soon and certainly hard .
My article about the market ’ s impending and likely severe fall included this comment : What a fool I was , scoffed some stock advisors and investors who read my article or whose eternally optimistic articles I wrote comments on based on my article .
Then COVID flew in like a black swan and crushed the global economy .
The Fed entirely lost control , and the market fell screaming , knowing the Fed couldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enormous money pumps also screamed , as the Fed ran them as fast as it could for two weeks .
Yet , the market kept right on falling through the floor and through the sub-basement because the market had a long way to go to catch down to economic reality .
In spite of the whirring money pumps ( or brrring of its money press ) , the Fed was completely unable to arrest the market ’ s plunge until the federal government stepped in alongside it and applied an additional $ 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s why I wrote in May , “ The Fed is Dead.
” The scoffers , as always , never returned to say they were sorry for calling me an idiot or even admit they had been wrong .
As you can see , with even more hindsight than was available in mid-May , the Fed pumped the market harder than ever before ( and the following graph doesn ’ t even show all the government help that came in alongside the Fed to finally rescue the market ) .
Yet , still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rise without government muscles joining it .
The Fed has hardly dared wiggle the plug at all since then .
It did a bit in June , but didn ’ t dare go far with that as it tries to stabilize its balance sheet at the new normal of $ 7 trillion , below which I am telling you it dare not fall because the pit of hell lies below .
I could stop with that success and take no further chances on predicting the insane stock market , and that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when I predict a market downturn in the face of running bulls ; but I ’ m not one who runs with the herd .
Herds stampede off cliffs .
That is how Indians so successfully killed a lot of other bulls in times past : I ’ m one who stands alone ( or , at least , with very few ) like the boy in Dances with Wolves in the face of the stampede .
I ’ m all about giving a clear warning of the economic cliffs ahead , not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by predicting what the experts predict .
Other than a few supporters here , no one thanked me for the thousands or maybe millions I might have saved them in March , had they listened .
All they did was return to scoffing as soon as the market started going up again , saying , “ See , we are right again.
” Well , maybe , but you could be a million dollars more right if you had stopped before running off the cliff !
Regardless , I ’ ve been yelling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May that the economy ’ s lack of recovery would become apparent by mid-July , in spite of what the herd believed about a V-shaped economic recovery .
I also said stock investors would take a little longer to catch on than anyone else because they ’ re bullheaded like that .
They are so irrational right now .
They are running on testosterone , not brain power .
Still , I said , it wouldn ’ t take long before the market would turn , too , putting the present timeframe squarely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has now come .
In this ongoing battle of the bulls and the bear , and I continue to stand by what I ’ ve warned will happen , even as the bullish stampede reaches a feverish drone of thundering hooves .
I don ’ t do it because I believe it will turn a single thick bullish neck .
I know it won ’ t .
I just do it because I think it is right .
Market running toward a more perilous overhang than ever before The Warren Buffett Indicator is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start this second clarion call about the perilous market this year with a comparison between how overvalued we were in January when I first shouted out about perilous overpricing to where we are now , which is so much worse .
( Many may say , “ Well you were right back then only because COVID-19 bailed you out.
” Maybe , but what will they say this time when they miss seeing how perilous the market is crashing when the next black swan swoops in and spooks the bulls over a cliff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two common metrics , the stock market was as overpriced as it was just before the dot-com bust : When the S & P hit that level in late 2018 , it fell off a cliff , just as it had done in 2000 .
When it hit slightly above that level again in January 2020 ( the very end of the graph ) , it fell off a much greater cliff .
That ’ s where we were then on the measure of the S & P price-sales ratio .
Here is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measure , the market is more overpriced and , therefore , more perilously close to the edge of the cliff , but I have many other instruments that show the market ’ s perilous perch and its likelihood of running over the edge soon .
I prefer to give the price/sales ratio versus the price/earnings ratio as a real-life metric because we all know by now that earnings are completely manipulated by corporate share buybacks in that “ earnings ” are really “ earnings per share , ” and corporations have been buying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no other time in history .
As a result , the P/E ratio is now worthless as a true historic metric ; but sales are what they are as a measure of real business activity .
Nevertheless , for those who prefer forward price earnings , here they are … … knocking on a ceiling touched twice before at a time that quickly and badly failed .
In January , they were slightly below that historic high .
That chart was two days ago , however , and the S & P has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hysteric high , while you can be certain forward projected earnings have not improved — not if anyone projecting them has a brain … though who knows if brains exist anymore ?
So , now forward ’ s PE multiples are almost certainly above that all-time high .
In more tabular form , that nonsense looks like this ( where a normal PE ratio would be somewhere between may 13 times earnings to 17 times earnings ) : When I wrote about how perilously overpriced the market was in January , most people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because the Fed had it firmly under control .
Now they already think the same foolhardy thing all over again … as if COVID could not possibly have more nasty surprises in store , as if the election could not possible turn the country to greater economy-wrecking chaos , as if the millions of homes now avoiding default solely because of forbearance could not possibly fall into default and then foreclosure in one month now that forbearance has ended , as if a million people still losing their jobs in each and every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outweigh the job recovery that came from reopening , which has run its course already , as I said it would … as if nothing bad could possibly happen at all … just like in January .
Oblivious .
Now that only half a dozen stocks are carrying the S & P up and rocketing the NASDAQ to the moon again , now that Apple is responsible for 98 % of the market ’ s gains , let ’ s look back at the difference between the NASDAQ and the S & P @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
By this measure , we have passed the hysterical heights the NASDAQ reached just before it broke in the dot-com bust when non one thought it could .
Here is where NASDAQ is relative to the S & P today : So , you can not say this rally isn ’ t as overpriced as in the dot-com bust or that the rally is based on any more realistic expectations of future earnings than we had in 2000 that would justify this pricing ahead of the rest of the market .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ section in stock-market history , sitting on the narrowest ledge of support as Apple now makes up 98 % of the broad , Main-Street Russell 2000 : As Zero Hedge says , Note the difference in how stocks have diverged before and after the COVID-crackup : As Lance Roberts recently wrote , it ’ s a tale of two markets .
He says of “ two bull markets , ” but one of the bulls is an all-out bear , even though people think this is a bull market and not without reason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared to the S & P , the S & P is running a familiar cliff edge , too .
Just as in 2000 , 2007/8 , 2018 and the start of 2020 — all times when the S & P crashed — the S & P is back to record deviation above its 200-week moving average .
Lance claims that , as bad as the great crash of 2020 was , the S & P is back to those heights because it never really broke its bull-market trend .
He uses the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the cliff-fall was , it never broke the spine of the market ’ s lower trend line : The market was simply so overpriced , just as it is now , that a 35 % plunge was but a mere correction , which only took the S & P back to the bottom trend line of the long bull market created from Fed financial fortification .
Now it is even more overpriced in terms of that trend line .
It is because the market never really broke through that bottom , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further to go to catch down to the steeply falling economy .
In the very least , I expect the S & P to drop to around 2200 on the S & P in its next plunge just to get back a little reality .
Ultimately , though , I expect the stock market to monkey-hammer its way through that bottom and fall into the pits of hell where the economy now lies in ruin because reality wins the day in the long run … even over the now impotent Fed ( the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market without Trumpian government assistance ) and certainly over all the vain hopes of stocktards .
Only the hubris of human beings likes to think otherwise .
However , I also expect both Fed and feds will do all they can to lift the market when it crashes .
So , I don ’ t anticipate a straight plunge to the bottom of this yawning depression .
It ’ s going to be a war between the uncaged bear the bulls into the pits of hell because the bulls have full Fed and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the signs the market is ready to turn : Most of today ’ s investors are too young to even know what a bear market feels like , and the retail crowd that is pushing indices beyond the walls at the top of the nose-bleed section on the backs of only half a dozen successful stocks is particularly young and inexperienced with reality .
Call the only stocks leading the charge the Dazzling Demi-Dozen ( they ’ ll be the Dirty Demi-Dozen when this thing breaks ) because they are largely owned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrote about in August .
You can see the market ’ s moves into its own extremes are stretching what are referred to as its Bollinger Bands , more than ever before , and it is only those stocks pushing through that membrane : You can just as easily see that the NASDAQ has never remained in that pink zone of the upper limits for long before falling back down to , at least , touch the purple zone or to return to its moving average .
In fact , this is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that upper band shown by the pink zone .
So , the market is in a no-man ’ s zone now and more poised than ever before to fall harder than ever before .
The market is giving off plenty of other signs that it is ready to make that turn .
The very top is usually marked by panic buying , and panic buying has certainly set in : Based on recent past patterns for this so-called bull market , the above graph looks like the market is perched on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fall to the receding ground elevation below .
Buying panic shows itself in uberleverage , too : Of course , all of this is happening even as the economy has begun to sink again into a rising sea of job losses ; but that kind of action is precisely the look of ultimate irrationality before major stock-market breakdowns .
More signs the market may be about to run over a cliff Since irrationality , even as the sign of a market peak , can continue longer than one ’ s solvency can remain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let ’ s look to other signs that indicate the market is nearing another major downfall .
Notice that past correlations between S & P highs and this level of market volatility have come anywhere from zero days before a market drop to 45 days : Traders are chasing momentum like never before , but that has always made them spectacularly right UNTIL they were spectacularly wrong .
It always happens approaching the summit , and this time is the craziest ever : Volatility has snapped positive in a way that indicates extraordinary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to instantly moving in the same positive direction is a massive reversal that just flashed on the stock-market warning-gauge cluster .
Here is how far the S & P alone is valued above the total economy as a result of this stretching : One expression of extreme sentiment is called market “ gamma.
” As you can see , it has risen to a point associated with market plunges : Entering the extreme zone , exceeded only once in the last decade , which was when the market crashed earlier this year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sentiment ( a.k.a .
now “ market mania ” ) indicator that looks like this : Also in the upper reaches of extremism .
Citigroup ’ s sentiment meter looks like this : They ’ re all saying the same thing .
The only time sentiment has ever been this insane was when I was writing about how insane and precarious the market was last January just before the market crashed .
That ’ s market sentiment .
Consumer sentiment out in the real economy , on the other hand , still looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , same side : One other sign of potentially spine-tingling rapid market failure is when everyone is trading on the same side of the cliff : Those are still signs associated with market mania , showing momentum trade that is in one of its most extreme final melt-ups ever .
Get ready for a stunning fall .
The fall has already begun It only depends on where you look .
So , let ’ s look at it from a slightly different point of view — not the top but the underside .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just that some high-flying stocks are carrying all the load , but 32 % of stocks in the NASDAQ have already fallen below their 50-day moving average .
A lot of dead weight is hanging out the bottom , which those balloon stocks have to carry to keep the average rising .
It is not as those stocks they to fall for the others to rise .
They are falling be most stocks really have no reason to rise .
This divergence in patterns , as the writer quoted above says , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market breadth within an index is a sign that markets are beginning to fade … and badly … knocking out stock after stock .
Markets all over the world are doing the same thing right now as fatigue sets in .
Other times when market internals looked similarly this divergent and poor are graphed with the bluish bars below : This is no one ’ s official metric of a market , fall , but look at the superficiality of this rally .
Some may see it as the market ’ s incredible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market ’ s emptiness of all reality .
The market is soaring on ditzy hope like no market in history .
How much time did it take for the S & P 500 to fully recover from its massive February-March fall compared to other major market recoveries : Those other recoveries happened slowly as the economy recovered .
In this stock-market rally — the fastest on record — the economy only partially recovered during “ reopening ” and is now showing the very signs I said it would start to show , mid-July @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market recovered in a sharp “ V ” based on the narrative that reopening would bring a V-shaped recovery to the economy , but that didn ’ t happen , leaving the market now more grossly out of touch with the economy than ever before and therefore more unsupported and dependent on the Fed than ever before .
It has no reality to fly on but Fed fumes .
So , does a the world ’ s fastest stock recovery , set against what looks to be more like another Great Depression , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is likely to hold for long or like a wet pipe dream about to burst ?
If it ’ s all running on Fed fumes , let ’ s look at the one Fed-fueled factor that is almost single-handedly responsible delivering Fed fuel to the last decade-long bull market : The Fed ’ s free funds financed record stock buybacks for years and years that lifted the market from the nape of its neck .
Apparently not any more .
Now the Fed is just making up lost income too keep companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed ’ s free fuel to transport the market to higher levels all along its flight path over the cliffs , one ought to be a little concerned that the backpack engines have smoldered out to the lowest burn they have shown since the Great Recession .
Corporations are in belt-tightening mode now in the business world .
Such conservation of energy for the long winter ahead is not conducive to the buyback spree that created the bull market .
During the spring and summer now , the market has been riding entirely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Their ambitious stock purchases were largely funded by the federal government ’ s unemployment bonuses , now stopped by congress and then reinstated at half their former level by Trump .
Meanwhile , economic bedrock during the reopening , looks like this : Or one can spread it out and show it this way to reveal that nothing is being hidden or exaggerated : This is recovery ?
And that is with TRILLIONS of Fed and federal funds being dumped into the economy , which are sparing us from feeling the affects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably in the history of the world , still running at over a million a week .
That ’ s now , but looking ahead : in spite of all the Fed easy money pumped into banks , banks have tightened commercial and industrial loans standards as much as they did during the last two recession : In spite of the Federal Reserve reinflating bank reserve balances , banks have also raised their loan rates above their cost of funding as much as in previous recessions : That doesn ’ t bode well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by bank loans ) or the general business climate in the months ahead .
Don ’ t just take my word for it Talpins points to a congress that is increasingly stymied at passing relief packages and a stock market that is leaning far out past its ski tips .
He notes the resurgence in million-plus job layoffs along with the resurgence in summer coronavirus cases and deaths in the US , and his bonafides are strong : The evidence above shows the bear has already broken out of his recovery cage .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ s underside right now , picking off the buffalo calves one by one , but he ’ s about to rise up and chase the bulls off a cliff .
As in January , I can not tell you exactly how long it will take for trader ’ s insane denial to run out of lofty energy .
It may depend on when the market gets struck by the next black swan .
However , there is more chaos brewing all over the world now — economically , socially , and politically , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in my life .
I think we all sense that , and black swans are born out of such troubled times .
So , I think this market is “ More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History , ” and that includes the last time I wrote that !

by David Haggith
I’ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October. Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over. The bear may soon be back in charge.
The futility of trying to stop the stampeding herd and the Fed fallacy
When I pointed out last January that the market was more perilously overpriced than ever and imminently ready to crash, the stock market took one of its most spectacular dives in history just a month later. (See: “Stock Market More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History.”)
Before the market plunged, I showed that Fed juicing (quantitative easing) was at all-time highs and continuing. That, I noted, made my prediction highly unlikely by most accounts.
The Fed is back to easing — back to doing what it does to juice markets up. And the correspondence between what central banks do with their balance sheets and what the stock markets do is now almost 100%.
I illustrated that with the following graph:
Yet, make my prediction I did.
Giddy investors on some sites tried to scorch me under their burning belief that the market couldn’t possible fall because the Fed had its rigging all firmly in hand, even though I had noted I was well aware of that. I replied the market was going to fall anyway — likely soon and certainly hard.
My article about the market’s impending and likely severe fall included this comment:
The more the market’s metrics move above all rational and historic benchmarks, as I’ll show they now have, the greater its fall will be if the Fed pulls the plug, AND the more sensitive it will become to the Fed even wiggling the plug. So, the situation is, in that sense, more perilous than at anytime past because some of the market’s most fundamental valuation metrics are now printing at levels never seen before.
What a fool I was, scoffed some stock advisors and investors who read my article or whose eternally optimistic articles I wrote comments on based on my article.
Then COVID flew in like a black swan and crushed the global economy. The Fed entirely lost control, and the market fell screaming, knowing the Fed couldn’t save it. The Fed’s enormous money pumps also screamed, as the Fed ran them as fast as it could for two weeks. Yet, the market kept right on falling through the floor and through the sub-basement because the market had a long way to go to catch down to economic reality.
In spite of the whirring money pumps (or brrring of its money press), the Fed was completely unable to arrest the market’s plunge until the federal government stepped in alongside it and applied an additional $3 trillion in muscle. And that’s why I wrote in May, “The Fed is Dead.”
The scoffers, as always, never returned to say they were sorry for calling me an idiot or even admit they had been wrong.
As you can see, with even more hindsight than was available in mid-May, the Fed pumped the market harder than ever before (and the following graph doesn’t even show all the government help that came in alongside the Fed to finally rescue the market). Yet, still it couldn’t get the market to rise without government muscles joining it.
The Fed has hardly dared wiggle the plug at all since then. It did a bit in June, but didn’t dare go far with that as it tries to stabilize its balance sheet at the new normal of $7 trillion, below which I am telling you it dare not fall because the pit of hell lies below.
I could stop with that success and take no further chances on predicting the insane stock market, and that is tempting, as I mostly get ridiculed when I predict a market downturn in the face of running bulls; but I’m not one who runs with the herd. Herds stampede off cliffs. That is how Indians so successfully killed a lot of other bulls in times past:
I’m one who stands alone (or, at least, with very few) like the boy in Dances with Wolves in the face of the stampede. I’m all about giving a clear warning of the economic cliffs ahead, not about playing it safe with my counsel by predicting what the experts predict.
Other than a few supporters here, no one thanked me for the thousands or maybe millions I might have saved them in March, had they listened. All they did was return to scoffing as soon as the market started going up again, saying, “See, we are right again.” Well, maybe, but you could be a million dollars more right if you had stopped before running off the cliff!
Regardless, I’ve been yelling against the noise of the stampede since May that the economy’s lack of recovery would become apparent by mid-July, in spite of what the herd believed about a V-shaped economic recovery. I also said stock investors would take a little longer to catch on than anyone else because they’re bullheaded like that. They are so irrational right now. They are running on testosterone, not brain power.
Still, I said, it wouldn’t take long before the market would turn, too, putting the present timeframe squarely in view. The time of testing has now come. In this ongoing battle of the bulls and the bear, and I continue to stand by what I’ve warned will happen, even as the bullish stampede reaches a feverish drone of thundering hooves.
I don’t do it because I believe it will turn a single thick bullish neck. I know it won’t. I just do it because I think it is right.
Market running toward a more perilous overhang than ever before
The Warren Buffett Indicator is now at all-time highs:
(This is the one that tells Warren when prices are way, way too overvalued)
Let me start this second clarion call about the perilous market this year with a comparison between how overvalued we were in January when I first shouted out about perilous overpricing to where we are now, which is so much worse. (Many may say, “Well you were right back then only because COVID-19 bailed you out.” Maybe, but what will they say this time when they miss seeing how perilous the market is crashing when the next black swan swoops in and spooks the bulls over a cliff?)
Back in January, by two common metrics, the stock market was as overpriced as it was just before the dot-com bust:
When the S&P hit that level in late 2018, it fell off a cliff, just as it had done in 2000. When it hit slightly above that level again in January 2020 (the very end of the graph), it fell off a much greater cliff.
That’s where we were then on the measure of the S&P price-sales ratio. Here is where we are now:
S&P 500 Historic Price-Sales Ratio All-Time High
Even higher.
By that measure, the market is more overpriced and, therefore, more perilously close to the edge of the cliff, but I have many other instruments that show the market’s perilous perch and its likelihood of running over the edge soon.
I prefer to give the price/sales ratio versus the price/earnings ratio as a real-life metric because we all know by now that earnings are completely manipulated by corporate share buybacks in that “earnings” are really “earnings per share,” and corporations have been buying back shares for the past decade like no other time in history. As a result, the P/E ratio is now worthless as a true historic metric; but sales are what they are as a measure of real business activity. Nevertheless, for those who prefer forward price earnings, here they are …
… knocking on a ceiling touched twice before at a time that quickly and badly failed. In January, they were slightly below that historic high. That chart was two days ago, however, and the S&P has only shot up from historic high to hysteric high, while you can be certain forward projected earnings have not improved — not if anyone projecting them has a brain … though who knows if brains exist anymore? So, now forward’s PE multiples are almost certainly above that all-time high.
In more tabular form, that nonsense looks like this (where a normal PE ratio would be somewhere between may 13 times earnings to 17 times earnings):
OK. That’s insane.
When I wrote about how perilously overpriced the market was in January, most people thought it couldn’t possibly fall because the Fed had it firmly under control. Now they already think the same foolhardy thing all over again … as if COVID could not possibly have more nasty surprises in store, as if the election could not possible turn the country to greater economy-wrecking chaos, as if the millions of homes now avoiding default solely because of forbearance could not possibly fall into default and then foreclosure in one month now that forbearance has ended, as if a million people still losing their jobs in each and every weekly report couldn’t start to outweigh the job recovery that came from reopening, which has run its course already, as I said it would … as if nothing bad could possibly happen at all … just like in January. Oblivious.
Now that only half a dozen stocks are carrying the S&P up and rocketing the NASDAQ to the moon again, now that Apple is responsible for 98% of the market’s gains, let’s look back at the difference between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 for a story of head-splitting divergence. By this measure, we have passed the hysterical heights the NASDAQ reached just before it broke in the dot-com bust when non one thought it could. Here is where NASDAQ is relative to the S&P today:
TABR Capital Management “Party Like It’s 1999”
So, you cannot say this rally isn’t as overpriced as in the dot-com bust or that the rally is based on any more realistic expectations of future earnings than we had in 2000 that would justify this pricing ahead of the rest of the market.
We are quite simply in the highest nose-bleed section in stock-market history, sitting on the narrowest ledge of support as Apple now makes up 98% of the broad, Main-Street Russell 2000:
As Zero Hedge says,
A few more trading days, and one company will be more valuable than all small public companies in the US combined.… Underscoring the lack of breadth, just 41, or 1.3% of the 3,068 NYSE stocks hit a new 52-week high on Friday when the S&P500 closed at a record 3,508, yet another unprecedented divergence.
Note the difference in how stocks have diverged before and after the COVID-crackup:
As Lance Roberts recently wrote, it’s a tale of two markets. He says of “two bull markets,” but one of the bulls is an all-out bear, even though people think this is a bull market and not without reason:
One part of the market is trading as you would expect with near depressionary economic numbers. The only description for the other part is “insane.” Real Investment Advice
While the NASDAQ is stratospherically insane compared to the S&P, the S&P is running a familiar cliff edge, too. Just as in 2000, 2007/8, 2018 and the start of 2020 — all times when the S&P crashed — the S&P is back to record deviation above its 200-week moving average.
Lance claims that, as bad as the great crash of 2020 was, the S&P is back to those heights because it never really broke its bull-market trend. He uses the following graph to show that, bad as the cliff-fall was, it never broke the spine of the market’s lower trend line:
The market was simply so overpriced, just as it is now, that a 35% plunge was but a mere correction, which only took the S&P back to the bottom trend line of the long bull market created from Fed financial fortification. Now it is even more overpriced in terms of that trend line.
It is because the market never really broke through that bottom, that I have kept saying it has much further to go to catch down to the steeply falling economy. In the very least, I expect the S&P to drop to around 2200 on the S&P in its next plunge just to get back a little reality.
Ultimately, though, I expect the stock market to monkey-hammer its way through that bottom and fall into the pits of hell where the economy now lies in ruin because reality wins the day in the long run … even over the now impotent Fed (the Fed that can’t move the market without Trumpian government assistance) and certainly over all the vain hopes of stocktards. Only the hubris of human beings likes to think otherwise.
However, I also expect both Fed and feds will do all they can to lift the market when it crashes. So, I don’t anticipate a straight plunge to the bottom of this yawning depression. It’s going to be a war between the uncaged bear the bulls into the pits of hell because the bulls have full Fed and feds support.
That said, here are the signs the market is ready to turn:
Ultimate irrationality and panic buying abound
Most of today’s investors are too young to even know what a bear market feels like, and the retail crowd that is pushing indices beyond the walls at the top of the nose-bleed section on the backs of only half a dozen successful stocks is particularly young and inexperienced with reality. Call the only stocks leading the charge the Dazzling Demi-Dozen (they’ll be the Dirty Demi-Dozen when this thing breaks) because they are largely owned and run by the Trillion-Dollar Dozen I wrote about in August.
You can see the market’s moves into its own extremes are stretching what are referred to as its Bollinger Bands, more than ever before, and it is only those stocks pushing through that membrane:
You can just as easily see that the NASDAQ has never remained in that pink zone of the upper limits for long before falling back down to, at least, touch the purple zone or to return to its moving average. In fact, this is the first time it has actually broken out of that upper band shown by the pink zone. So, the market is in a no-man’s zone now and more poised than ever before to fall harder than ever before.
As Lance Roberts notes,
Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.
The market is giving off plenty of other signs that it is ready to make that turn.
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Panic buying:
The very top is usually marked by panic buying, and panic buying has certainly set in:
The panic buying we’re seeing in $TSLA and $AAPL today, following the historic runs into the stock splits effective today, firms my view that we are setting up for something sinister in markets…. Tony Dwyer suspended all efforts to give price targets, in essence acknowledging that traditional valuations metrics no longer apply: Northman Trader
Tony Dwyer at Canaccord, who's been bullish and has carried a "3300+" S&P 500 target, says this morning he is "withdrawing SPX targets because there is no precedent to how high valuations can go." — Michael Santoli (@michaelsantoli) August 31, 2020
1 year ago in August 2019 $TSLA was trading as low as $211, now it's trading north of $2,000. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) August 20, 2020
Excess anyone?
None of these companies have produced results that justify these historic market cap expansions in such a short period of time, but they provide cover for the illusion that the bear market is over and that a new bull market has begun. Northman Trader
On the last day of the month $NDX is trading 987 points or 8.9% above its upper monthly Bollinger band and 1,493 points or 14.1% above its monthly 5 EMA. pic.twitter.com/EWES3KTHL9 — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) August 31, 2020
So let’s all acknowledge that sentiment is vastly bullish and people are piling into select stocks with no regard to risk…. It is hence notable that $SPX is coming into the end of August and beginning of September approaching historic resistance. Northman Trader
Based on recent past patterns for this so-called bull market, the above graph looks like the market is perched on the stadium wall with a long way to fall to the receding ground elevation below.
Who knows if history is still any guide in these times. If it is then the panic buying and optimism of these days is laying the groundwork for the tears that are to follow.
Buying panic shows itself in uberleverage, too:
Investors are literally using massive leverage to wager on imminent momentum moves such as those often highlighted OTM calls traded in Tesla stock…. Speculative options trading has now reached the equivalent of 12% of NYSE volume last week, far surpassing anything seen during either the dot com or housing bubbles. As [one investment analyst] summarizes, it’s “like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet.” Zero Hedge
Of course, all of this is happening even as the economy has begun to sink again into a rising sea of job losses; but that kind of action is precisely the look of ultimate irrationality before major stock-market breakdowns.
More signs the market may be about to run over a cliff
Since irrationality, even as the sign of a market peak, can continue longer than one’s solvency can remain if they are waiting it out, let’s look to other signs that indicate the market is nearing another major downfall.
Volatility is rebounding:
According to Goldman, the S&P’s new highs in February were the first such days in which the VIX closed above 15 since 2015. Six months later, the SPX is back at new all-time highs, and this time the VIX is in the 20’s – the highest VIX level at a new SPX high since Mar-2000. As Goldman’s Rocky Fishman says “this … can reflect growing uneasiness about SPX valuations (in addition to virus-related risk.”
Notice that past correlations between S&P highs and this level of market volatility have come anywhere from zero days before a market drop to 45 days:
Traders are chasing momentum like never before, but that has always made them spectacularly right UNTIL they were spectacularly wrong. It always happens approaching the summit, and this time is the craziest ever:
“This might be the weirdest market I’ve ever seen,” Goepfert said, adding he’s seen market oddities for weeks, and so far “they haven’t mattered.” Bloomberg
Volatility has snapped positive in a way that indicates extraordinary panic buying:
The author of the popular Felder Report financial blog said that typically the stock market and expected volatility — indicated by the VIX index — should move in opposite directions. Any divergence from this, which Felder said has now appeared, can signal “an impending reversal.” MarketWatch
Well, that snap to instantly moving in the same positive direction is a massive reversal that just flashed on the stock-market warning-gauge cluster.
Here is how far the S&P alone is valued above the total economy as a result of this stretching:
Extreme sentiment: (greed)
One expression of extreme sentiment is called market “gamma.” As you can see, it has risen to a point associated with market plunges:
Entering the extreme zone, exceeded only once in the last decade, which was when the market crashed earlier this year.
Williams Market Analytics puts out a market sentiment (a.k.a. now “market mania”) indicator that looks like this:
Also in the upper reaches of extremism.
Citigroup’s sentiment meter looks like this:
They’re all saying the same thing.
The only time sentiment has ever been this insane was when I was writing about how insane and precarious the market was last January just before the market crashed.
That’s market sentiment. Consumer sentiment out in the real economy, on the other hand, still looks like this:
Everyone on the same, same side:
One other sign of potentially spine-tingling rapid market failure is when everyone is trading on the same side of the cliff:
Those are still signs associated with market mania, showing momentum trade that is in one of its most extreme final melt-ups ever. Get ready for a stunning fall.
The fall has already begun
It only depends on where you look. So, let’s look at it from a slightly different point of view — not the top but the underside.
Rising/declining stocks:
Unfortunately, the correction in much of the market has already started. The number of stocks above their 50-day moving average in the NASDAQ 100 has declined sharply, despite the index surging to new highs. As of August 21, the number of stocks above their day moving average is around 68%…. The divergence between the number of stocks above that average and the NASDAQ 100 index is now at the widest point. Seeking Alpha
In other words, it is not just that some high-flying stocks are carrying all the load, but 32% of stocks in the NASDAQ have already fallen below their 50-day moving average. A lot of dead weight is hanging out the bottom, which those balloon stocks have to carry to keep the average rising.
It is not as those stocks they to fall for the others to rise. They are falling be most stocks really have no reason to rise. This divergence in patterns, as the writer quoted above says, is a brewing market storm.
Narrowing of market breadth within an index is a sign that markets are beginning to fade … and badly … knocking out stock after stock. Markets all over the world are doing the same thing right now as fatigue sets in.
Other times when market internals looked similarly this divergent and poor are graphed with the bluish bars below:
Flightiness of the rally:
This is no one’s official metric of a market, fall, but look at the superficiality of this rally. Some may see it as the market’s incredible strength. I see it as the market’s emptiness of all reality. The market is soaring on ditzy hope like no market in history.
How much time did it take for the S&P 500 to fully recover from its massive February-March fall compared to other major market recoveries:
Those other recoveries happened slowly as the economy recovered. In this stock-market rally — the fastest on record — the economy only partially recovered during “reopening” and is now showing the very signs I said it would start to show, mid-July, of sliding back downhill. The market recovered in a sharp “V” based on the narrative that reopening would bring a V-shaped recovery to the economy, but that didn’t happen, leaving the market now more grossly out of touch with the economy than ever before and therefore more unsupported and dependent on the Fed than ever before. It has no reality to fly on but Fed fumes.
So, does a the world’s fastest stock recovery, set against what looks to be more like another Great Depression, really look like a robust stock recovery that is likely to hold for long or like a wet pipe dream about to burst?
If it’s all running on Fed fumes, let’s look at the one Fed-fueled factor that is almost single-handedly responsible delivering Fed fuel to the last decade-long bull market:
The Fed’s free funds financed record stock buybacks for years and years that lifted the market from the nape of its neck. Apparently not any more. Now the Fed is just making up lost income too keep companies alive!
Knowing stock buybacks burned the Fed’s free fuel to transport the market to higher levels all along its flight path over the cliffs, one ought to be a little concerned that the backpack engines have smoldered out to the lowest burn they have shown since the Great Recession. Corporations are in belt-tightening mode now in the business world. Such conservation of energy for the long winter ahead is not conducive to the buyback spree that created the bull market.
During the spring and summer now, the market has been riding entirely on the backs of high-flying retail traders. Their ambitious stock purchases were largely funded by the federal government’s unemployment bonuses, now stopped by congress and then reinstated at half their former level by Trump.
Meanwhile, economic bedrock during the reopening, looks like this:
(Here are the last eleven weeks of jobless claims during the great economic reopening (leaving out the far worse numbers during the economic lockdown). These are compared with the eleven WORST weeks from the Great Recession (notes and arrow) and with the last three years of normal jobless claims (red lines). As you can see, the jobless number is back to rising faster than a million a week!)
Or one can spread it out and show it this way to reveal that nothing is being hidden or exaggerated:
(Apparently new jobless claims are also up in the nosebleed section.)
This is recovery? And that is with TRILLIONS of Fed and federal funds being dumped into the economy, which are sparing us from feeling the affects of the greatest, quickest job losses probably in the history of the world, still running at over a million a week.
That’s now, but looking ahead: in spite of all the Fed easy money pumped into banks, banks have tightened commercial and industrial loans standards as much as they did during the last two recession:
In spite of the Federal Reserve reinflating bank reserve balances, banks have also raised their loan rates above their cost of funding as much as in previous recessions:
That doesn’t bode well for either stock buybacks (often financed by bank loans) or the general business climate in the months ahead.
Don’t just take my word for it
Investor who scored big in coronavirus rout … now says stock-market ‘environment presents … largest set of tail risks we’ve seen’ in 15 years. Jeffrey Talpins, the founder of Element Capital, says he’s betting against the market in the near term, the FT reports. “We believe that the rally has now extended well beyond levels justified by the state of the economy, and with little regard for the myriad of risk factors looming on the horizon.” That is Jeffrey Talpins, the founder of Element Capital, in an Aug. 18 letter to his clients, cited by the Financial Times (paywall), explaining his decision to reposition his $16 billion hedge fund for a potential downturn in the market after an unprecedented rebound in equities in the U.S. and Europe since March. MarketWatch
Talpins points to a congress that is increasingly stymied at passing relief packages and a stock market that is leaning far out past its ski tips. He notes the resurgence in million-plus job layoffs along with the resurgence in summer coronavirus cases and deaths in the US, and his bonafides are strong:
Element Capital, a macro-focused hedge fund, boasts average annual returns of 19% since it launched in 2005 without a down year, the FT notes.
The evidence above shows the bear has already broken out of his recovery cage. He is hunting on the market’s underside right now, picking off the buffalo calves one by one, but he’s about to rise up and chase the bulls off a cliff.
As in January, I cannot tell you exactly how long it will take for trader’s insane denial to run out of lofty energy. It may depend on when the market gets struck by the next black swan. However, there is more chaos brewing all over the world now — economically, socially, and politically, both domestically and internationally — than anytime in my life. I think we all sense that, and black swans are born out of such troubled times. So, I think this market is “More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History,” and that includes the last time I wrote that!
The bear is back, and he is angry.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--Visualizing the State of Democracy, by Country

View the full-sized interactive version of this graphic From Norway to North Korea , governing systems differ around the world .
But has the world become more or less free in the past decade ?
This visualization from Preethi Lodha demonstrates how democracy levels of 167 countries have changed since 2006 .
The original data comes from the Democracy Index , which is compiled annually by the Economist Intelligence Unit .
First , it ’ s important to understand the classifications made by the Democracy Index .
Based on answers to 60 questions across a nation ’ s electoral process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political participation and political culture , countries are assigned a range of scores in the Democracy Index .
Based on these scores , a nation automatically falls into one of the following four types of governance .
Here ’ s which category fits the bill , depending on the range of scores : One thing that stands out is that many hybrid regimes and flawed democracies are also considered high potential emerging markets , but are held back by their political instability .
In recent times , public demonstrations have been a major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and changes in governance classifications .
Algeria moved from authoritarian to hybrid regime in 2019 , the only country in the Arab region to do so in the index .
This came after sustained protests against the previous president , Abdelaziz Bouteflika—who had served for 20 years .
Chile experienced similar turmoil , for the better .
After a spike in the scale of middle class unrest over inequality and unfair policies in late 2019 , the political participation moved it up from a flawed to full democracy .
The U.S. has one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , it was downgraded from a full to a flawed democracy as of the 2016 index , a status that had been “ teetering ” since before then , according to the report that year .
Venezuela dropped into an authoritarian regime in 2017 , and it doesn ’ t seem to be improving anytime soon .
The state was found to use the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to crack down on any dissent against the government .
All in all , the average global democracy score worldwide emerged at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s clear that certain countries pull this value towards the opposite extremes .
North Korea , an authoritarian regime with a 1.08 score , has remained consistently one of the lowest ranked countries in the index .
Meanwhile , its alphabetical successor Norway steadily keeps up its high score streak , with 9.87 being the best example of a full democracy in 2019 .
Here ’ s how many countries made up each system of governance over the years , and the global Democracy Index score for that year .
Authoritarian regimes peaked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the full democracy category peaked in 2008 with 28 countries .
Since 2006 , the average global score has slid from 5.52 to 5.48 , and the total of countries categorized under full democracy decreased from 26 to 22 .
Does this signal an increasingly divided world ?
And will the global pandemic—which is already delaying elections—have a further pronounced effect on backsliding these democracy scores ?

by visualcapitalist
View the full-sized interactive version of this graphic
From Norway to North Korea, governing systems differ around the world. But has the world become more or less free in the past decade?
This visualization from Preethi Lodha demonstrates how democracy levels of 167 countries have changed since 2006. The original data comes from the Democracy Index, which is compiled annually by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Four Levels of Democracy
First, it’s important to understand the classifications made by the Democracy Index.
Based on answers to 60 questions across a nation’s electoral process, civil liberties, government functions, political participation and political culture, countries are assigned a range of scores in the Democracy Index.
Based on these scores, a nation automatically falls into one of the following four types of governance. Here’s which category fits the bill, depending on the range of scores:
Governance Type Description Example Democracy Index Score Authoritarian Regime Nations which exhibit frequent
infringements of civil liberties,
unfair elections, and rampant censorship. 🇨🇳 China
🇰🇵 North Korea
🇦🇪 UAE 0.0-3.99 Hybrid Regime Nations with regular electoral
fraud, corruption, and low
political participation,
and suppressed opposition. 🇰🇪 Kenya
🇵🇰 Pakistan
🇹🇷 Turkey 4.0-5.99 Flawed Democracy Nations with fair elections,
underdeveloped political
participation and culture,
with minor issues in civil liberty
and government functions. 🇧🇷 Brazil
🇮🇳 India
🇺🇸 U.S. 6.0-7.99 Full Democracy Nations where political freedoms
are respected with limited
problems, governmental
checks and balances,
and diverse media exist. 🇦🇺 Australia
🇨🇦 Canada
🇳🇴 Norway 8.0-10.0
One thing that stands out is that many hybrid regimes and flawed democracies are also considered high potential emerging markets, but are held back by their political instability.
Notable Improvements
In recent times, public demonstrations have been a major cause behind increases in Democracy Index scores and changes in governance classifications.
Algeria moved from authoritarian to hybrid regime in 2019, the only country in the Arab region to do so in the index. This came after sustained protests against the previous president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika—who had served for 20 years.
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Chile experienced similar turmoil, for the better. After a spike in the scale of middle class unrest over inequality and unfair policies in late 2019, the political participation moved it up from a flawed to full democracy.
Sliding Countries
The U.S. has one of the oldest democracies in the world. However, it was downgraded from a full to a flawed democracy as of the 2016 index, a status that had been “teetering” since before then, according to the report that year.
Venezuela dropped into an authoritarian regime in 2017, and it doesn’t seem to be improving anytime soon. The state was found to use the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to crack down on any dissent against the government.
Global Change in Democracy Levels
All in all, the average global democracy score worldwide emerged at 5.48 in 2019, although it’s clear that certain countries pull this value towards the opposite extremes.
North Korea, an authoritarian regime with a 1.08 score, has remained consistently one of the lowest ranked countries in the index. Meanwhile, its alphabetical successor Norway steadily keeps up its high score streak, with 9.87 being the best example of a full democracy in 2019.
Here’s how many countries made up each system of governance over the years, and the global Democracy Index score for that year.
Year Authoritarian Hybrid Flawed Democracy Full Democracy Score 2006 55 33 53 26 5.52 2008 52 35 52 28 5.55 2010 57 31 53 26 5.46 2011 54 35 53 25 5.49 2012 52 37 53 25 5.52 2013 51 40 51 25 5.53 2014 52 39 52 24 5.55 2015 52 36 59 20 5.55 2016 51 40 57 19 5.52 2017 52 39 57 19 5.48 2018 53 39 55 20 5.48 2019 54 37 54 22 5.48
Authoritarian regimes peaked in 2010 with 57 countries, whereas the full democracy category peaked in 2008 with 28 countries.
Since 2006, the average global score has slid from 5.52 to 5.48, and the total of countries categorized under full democracy decreased from 26 to 22.
Does this signal an increasingly divided world? And will the global pandemic—which is already delaying elections—have a further pronounced effect on backsliding these democracy scores?


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--“OCCUPY BIDEN” The Radical Occupation & Looting of Joe Biden’s Brain

Here is the speech President Trump should give to explain the difference between the fake image of Joe Biden , “ the blue-collar fighter for the middle class , ” and the reality of the new Joe Biden : radical Marxist out to destroy everything we hold dear : America , American exceptionalism , capitalism , the US Constitution , Judeo-Christian values , police , military and the great American middle class .
Because America has to understand the truth- the old Joe Biden has been hijacked .
Radicals have occupied his brain .
And the Joe Biden standing before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe .
It ’ s not his fault .
The old Joe is gone .
He clearly has dementia .
He is a shell of his former self .
His brain has been hijacked , occupied and looted .
Now poor old helpless Joe is just a tool of radical socialist , Marxist , America-hating , extremists , revolutionaries and anarchists .
Here is how Trump should describe the high-jacking of Biden ’ s brain… “ My fellow Americans it is vitally important that you know…this is not an election between Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden is no longer there .
The old folksy , blue-collar Joe is gone forever .
Poor Joe ’ s brain has deteriorated .
Terrible , evil people who hate this country and want to destroy it , have highjacked the old Joe Biden we all knew and loved .
This new Joe is just a façade .
A fake .
He acts on the outside like the old blue-collar Joe .
But poor old Joe ’ s brain is not there anymore .
Joe ’ s brain has been seized in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on destroying America .
I call it , “ OCCUPY BIDEN.
” These Biden brain occupiers are like a conman who lives with an elderly helpless grandpa in his basement apartment , pretending to care for him , but loots his bank accounts .
These America-hating , Marxist radicals have looted Joe ’ s brain .
Because of this terrible situation , this election is no longer about two positive , reasonable visions for America .
It ’ s about Donald J. Trump and making America great again , safe again and prosperous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bleak future filled with anarchy , revolution , rioting , looting , torching , murder , home invasion , and the end of America .
Joe won ’ t be in control of the White House , America , the US economy , or the military .
The extremist , America-hating , socialist and Marxist radicals who occupy Joe ’ s brain will be in control of this country…your property…your life…and your children ’ s future .
America and YOU will never recover .
This election is a choice between being safe in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is an election between jobs and prosperity for all Americans , versus seeing entire industries shuttered by crippling regulations and massive new taxes .
This is an election between the right to freely practice your religion , versus having your church ordered closed .
This is an election between personal freedom versus government control over your entire life .
Most importantly , if “ OCCUPY BIDEN ” gets a hold of the White House , it ’ s not just open borders .
It ’ s open borders with no more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthcare for anyone in the world .
Within a year or two , maybe much sooner , you won ’ t even recognize America .
It will be a nation of 600 million .
Or 900 million .
Every non-English-speaking , poverty-stricken , skill-less , migrant in need of cradle to grave welfare…every dangerous criminal…and every person in the world with illness or disease will head for the border .
Joe and the Democrats will let them all in and offer them free everything .
Guess who will pay the bill ?
YOU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American middle class .
That ’ s the end of America , the end of capitalism , the end of YOU .
With 300 million or more new foreigners in this country , who will protect you ?
Biden and his radical brain occupiers will have defunded the police and ICE .
You ’ re on your own .
It ’ s every man and woman for themselves .
Every middle-class home in America will become the Alamo .
Occupy Biden will quickly turn America into Venezuela , where formerly upper middle-class citizens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are now searching dumpsters for food , begging in the streets and drinking sewage water .
I truly wish this was an election between me and the Joe Biden we all knew just ten years ago .
That Joe Biden would not have destroyed America .
That Joe Biden would not wanted to turn America into Venezuela .
I truly believe THAT Joe Biden loved America .
But that Joe Biden is gone forever .
This election is a choice between making America great again , safe again and prosperous again…or putting America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your children ’ s future in the hands of “ OCCUPY BIDEN ” - a gang of evil radicals who have hijacked , occupied and looted Joe Biden ’ s brain .
In your hearts you know what I ’ m saying is 100 % true .
The choice is yours .

by Wayne Root
Here is the speech President Trump should give to explain the difference between the fake image of Joe Biden, “the blue-collar fighter for the middle class,” and the reality of the new Joe Biden: radical Marxist out to destroy everything we hold dear: America, American exceptionalism, capitalism, the US Constitution, Judeo-Christian values, police, military and the great American middle class.
Because America has to understand the truth- the old Joe Biden has been hijacked. Radicals have occupied his brain. And the Joe Biden standing before you, is nothing like the old Joe.
It’s not his fault. The old Joe is gone. He clearly has dementia. He is a shell of his former self. His brain has been hijacked, occupied and looted. Now poor old helpless Joe is just a tool of radical socialist, Marxist, America-hating, extremists, revolutionaries and anarchists.
Here is how Trump should describe the high-jacking of Biden’s brain…
“My fellow Americans it is vitally important that you know…this is not an election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Because the old Joe Biden is no longer there. The old folksy, blue-collar Joe is gone forever. Poor Joe’s brain has deteriorated.
Terrible, evil people who hate this country and want to destroy it, have highjacked the old Joe Biden we all knew and loved. This new Joe is just a façade. A fake. He acts on the outside like the old blue-collar Joe. But poor old Joe’s brain is not there anymore. Joe’s brain has been seized in a hostile takeover by evil people intent on destroying America. I call it, “OCCUPY BIDEN.”
These Biden brain occupiers are like a conman who lives with an elderly helpless grandpa in his basement apartment, pretending to care for him, but loots his bank accounts. These America-hating, Marxist radicals have looted Joe’s brain.
Because of this terrible situation, this election is no longer about two positive, reasonable visions for America. It’s about Donald J. Trump and making America great again, safe again and prosperous again…versus “OCCUPY BIDEN”- a bleak future filled with anarchy, revolution, rioting, looting, torching, murder, home invasion, and the end of America.
Joe won’t be in control of the White House, America, the US economy, or the military. The extremist, America-hating, socialist and Marxist radicals who occupy Joe’s brain will be in control of this country…your property…your life…and your children’s future.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
America and YOU will never recover.
This election is a choice between being safe in your home versus anarchy in the streets. This is an election between jobs and prosperity for all Americans, versus seeing entire industries shuttered by crippling regulations and massive new taxes. This is an election between the right to freely practice your religion, versus having your church ordered closed. This is an election between personal freedom versus government control over your entire life.
Most importantly, if “OCCUPY BIDEN” gets a hold of the White House, it’s not just open borders. It’s open borders with no more ICE, defunded police, and free healthcare for anyone in the world.
Within a year or two, maybe much sooner, you won’t even recognize America. It will be a nation of 600 million. Or 900 million. Every non-English-speaking, poverty-stricken, skill-less, migrant in need of cradle to grave welfare…every dangerous criminal…and every person in the world with illness or disease will head for the border. Joe and the Democrats will let them all in and offer them free everything. Guess who will pay the bill? YOU, the American people, the great American middle class.
That’s the end of America, the end of capitalism, the end of YOU.
With 300 million or more new foreigners in this country, who will protect you? Biden and his radical brain occupiers will have defunded the police and ICE. You’re on your own. It’s every man and woman for themselves. Every middle-class home in America will become the Alamo.
Occupy Biden will quickly turn America into Venezuela, where formerly upper middle-class citizens, professionals, business owners and homeowners are now searching dumpsters for food, begging in the streets and drinking sewage water.
I truly wish this was an election between me and the Joe Biden we all knew just ten years ago. That Joe Biden would not have destroyed America. That Joe Biden would not wanted to turn America into Venezuela. I truly believe THAT Joe Biden loved America.
But that Joe Biden is gone forever. This election is a choice between making America great again, safe again and prosperous again…or putting America and your job, your life, your children’s future in the hands of “OCCUPY BIDEN”- a gang of evil radicals who have hijacked, occupied and looted Joe Biden’s brain.
In your hearts you know what I’m saying is 100% true. The choice is yours.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--Apple’s Market Cap reaches 2.3 Trillion – twice what was in April 2020 (1.1).. – Too big to fail? To

Apple’s Market Cap reaches 2.3 Trillion – twice what was in April 2020 (1.1).. – Too big to fail? Too much faith?

I briefly talked yesterday about Tesla ’ s market cap and how it was absurdly priced and honestly felt like gambling to me .
However , APPL is somewhat overlooked as well and I wanted to hear your guys ’ thoughts on it !
Apple ’ s Market Cap as of right now is 2.3 Trillion ( Source ) .
On August 20 , it was 2 Trillion .
It has added 300 billion in about 10 days – without having added any products what soever ( primarily due to the stock split ) .
In April of this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It has since doubled since that time , so much so that it is the size of the GDP of France ( www.statista.com/statistics/685925/gdp-of-european-countries/ ) Now , I am all for Apple devices and services .
They make some of the best products ever .
They have crazy high margins and once a consumer buys an Apple device , he has to buy other ones due to the seamless integration it provides ( biggest selling point ) .
It is now getting in more markets such as India with its ’ new iPhone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skeptical on its ’ valuation .
I feel like people are buying AAPL due to its security – it has always gone up , so it will always go up – and therefore , it ’ s safe to park their money there .
Some are even likening it to Treasury Bonds – that it ’ s better to put your money in AAPL stock because it ’ s safe and because it ’ s so big , it won ’ t fail .
I wanted to know if AAPL is overvalued/overpriced or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ iPhone is coming out and it will have an impact but still , are people putting too much blind trust/faith in AAPL ?
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by rsoni1997
I briefly talked yesterday about Tesla’s market cap and how it was absurdly priced and honestly felt like gambling to me. However, APPL is somewhat overlooked as well and I wanted to hear your guys’ thoughts on it!
Apple’s Market Cap as of right now is 2.3 Trillion (Source). On August 20, it was 2 Trillion. It has added 300 billion in about 10 days – without having added any products what soever (primarily due to the stock split).
In April of this year, it was 1.1 Trillion or so. It has since doubled since that time, so much so that it is the size of the GDP of France (www.statista.com/statistics/685925/gdp-of-european-countries/)
Now, I am all for Apple devices and services. They make some of the best products ever. They have crazy high margins and once a consumer buys an Apple device, he has to buy other ones due to the seamless integration it provides (biggest selling point). It is now getting in more markets such as India with its’ new iPhone SE 2, but I am somewhat skeptical on its’ valuation.
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I feel like people are buying AAPL due to its security – it has always gone up, so it will always go up – and therefore, it’s safe to park their money there. Some are even likening it to Treasury Bonds – that it’s better to put your money in AAPL stock because it’s safe and because it’s so big, it won’t fail.
I wanted to know if AAPL is overvalued/overpriced or not? I know the first 5G iPhone is coming out and it will have an impact but still, are people putting too much blind trust/faith in AAPL?
Thoughts?
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--BLM supporter “I don’t want a job!” MAKE HER FAMOUS!

— 𝑴𝒊𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒍𝒍𝒆 6.0 The Best Is Yet To Come ( @ TrumpRulzz ) September 1 , 2020

BLM supporter "I don't want a job!" MAKE HER FAMOUS!!!! pic.twitter.com/Ty8pM84Lyi
— 𝑴𝒊𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒍𝒍𝒆 6.0 The Best Is Yet To Come (@TrumpRulzz) September 1, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--Wall Street has gone full 99-00… UPS driver on my office route is telling me about his Robinhood gai

Wall Street has gone full 99-00… UPS driver on my office route is telling me about his Robinhood gains. We’re beyond close.

One day after raising AAPL Price Target on multiple expansion, Bank of America raises Tesla also on multiple expansion (from 55x to 87x 22 EBITDA). Wall Street has gone full 99-00 pic.twitter.com/2eAfIABlWW — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2020
UPS driver on my office route is telling me about his Robinhood gains. We’re beyond close. — Bane (@MedievalNomad) September 2, 2020
I really cant take much more t.co/8yi7qfe4nd — BLACK SWAN – HODL puts (@RetirementRight) September 2, 2020
Banks cutting credit card limits at fastest rate for those who rely most on credit cards; doesn’t bode well for households in precarious financial situations, especially if additional government benefits stop flowing @TransUnion @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/Fuoq4Y9v7n — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 2, 2020
Imagine buying a bond that yields less than inflation from an extremely leveraged company. That’s the case today in the US. Real yields for the average corporate bond are now at their lowest level in history. pic.twitter.com/NDnSloOXOY — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 2, 2020
One of my most important Models is moving into the Sell/Hedge zone. This is the 20th signal since 2009 – most led to sharp pullbacks or big corrections in Stocks. Potential high risk of a bigger Tactical regime shift approaching – monitoring turn down for confirmation (TBD). pic.twitter.com/GnD14hh9nb — Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) September 1, 2020
The only ammo there is now is call buying in big tech
Ask yourself: What would happen if those calls fail and this market reverses? Fast move down — Farris BABA (@farrisbaba) August 31, 2020
Apple is now worth more than the FTSE 100 Index, who is the $2B call buyer, SoftBank? And more important, who is the seller? Better be Buffett or an equity derivatives desk is in trouble? t.co/TP4Ft5kn8W — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) September 2, 2020
If you can't hear the opposing side of your thesis without getting upset, you're not going to last long in this game. — Apollo Trading (@apollotradingsd) September 1, 2020
We are watching a redux of the SE Asian Currency crisis brewing under our noses. All of the EM countries struggling with mountains of $ debt using FX swaps as a means of obtaining $ funding are about to lose large chunks of reserves when the $ takes off again. — Invisible Fist (@matrbk) September 2, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-02--The Fed is out of control and the gold price will be above $2,000 by year end – Adrian Day

( Kitco News ) – Gold and silver prices are going to go higher and end the year above $ @ @ @ @ @ shouldn ’ t worry or quibble over some short-term profit taking and consolidation , according @ @ @ @ @ In an interview with Kitco News , on the side line of the Mines and @ @ @ @ @ conference , Adrian Day , CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management , said that he @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. dollar enters a new long-term down trend because of extremely loose Federal Reserve @ @ @ @ @ that it will be impossible for the U.S. central bank to unwind the trillions of @ @ @ @ @ financial markets to support the economy that has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic .

via kitco:
(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are going to go higher and end the year above $2,000 an ounce and investors shouldn’t worry or quibble over some short-term profit taking and consolidation, according to one fund manager.
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In an interview with Kitco News, on the side line of the Mines and Money Online Connect global mining conference, Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, said that he remains bullish on gold as the U.S. dollar enters a new long-term down trend because of extremely loose Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Day added that it will be impossible for the U.S. central bank to unwind the trillions of dollars it has pumped into financial markets to support the economy that has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic.