investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--America’s Recessional: Time to Bring the Troops Home

Two weeks ago a senior Trump Administration official revealed that the president had decided to withdraw 9,500 American soldiers from Germany and that the administration would also be capping total U.S. military presence in that country at 25,000 , which might involve more cuts depending what is included in the numbers .
The move was welcomed in some circles and strongly criticized in others , but many observers were also bemused by the announcement , noting that Donald Trump had previously ordered a reduction in force in Afghanistan and a complete withdrawal from Syria , neither of which has actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were only moved from the northern part of the country to the oil producing region in the south to protect the fields from seizure by ISIS , while in Afghanistan the nineteen-year-long training mission and infrastructure reconstruction continue .
In a somewhat related development , the Iraqi parliament has called for the removal of U.S. troops from the country , a demand that has been rejected by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo .
Put it all together and it suggests that any announcement coming from the White House on ending America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skepticism .
The United States has its nearly 35,000 military personnel remaining in Germany as its contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ) , founded in 1949 to counter Soviet forces in Eastern Europe in what was to become the Warsaw Pact .
Both the Organization and Pact were ostensibly defensive alliances and the U.S. active participation was intended to demonstrate American resolve to come to the aid of Western Europe .
Currently , 75 years after the end of World War II and thirty years after the fall of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an anachronism , kept going by the many statesmen and military establishments of the various countries that have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo .
Since the demise of the European communist regimes , NATO has found work in bombing Serbia , destroying Libya and in helping in the unending task to train an Afghan army .
In spite of the clearly diminished threat in Europe , NATO has expanded to 30 members , including most of the former communist states that made up the Warsaw Pact .
The most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which contributed 2,400 soldiers to the NATO force .
That expansion was carried out in spite of assurances given to the post-Soviet Russian government that military encroachment would not take place .
Currently , NATO continues to focus on the threat from Moscow as its own viable raison d ’ être , with its deployments and training exercises often taking place right up against Russia ’ s borders .
Few really believe that the Russia , which has a GDP only the size of Italy ’ s , intends or is even capable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Union .
But a vulnerable Russia is nevertheless interested in maintaining an old-fashioned sphere of influence around its borders , which explains the concern over developments in Ukraine , Georgia and the Baltic States .
Given the diminished threat level in Europe , the withdrawal of 9,500 soldiers should be welcomed by all parties .
Trump has been sending the not unreasonable message that if the Europeans want more defense , they should pay for it themselves , though he has wrapped his proposal in his usual insulting and derogatory language .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GDP on its military , far less than the 2 % that NATO has declared to be a target to meet alliance commitments .
That compares with the nearly 5 % that the U.S. has been spending globally , inclusive of intelligence and national security costs .
Fair enough for burden sharing , but the European concern is more focused on how Trump does what he does .
For example , he announced the downsizing without informing America ’ s NATO partners .
The Germans were surprised and pushed back immediately .
Conservative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely unacceptable , especially since nobody in Washington thought about informing its NATO ally Germany in advance , ” and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas regretted the planned withdrawal , describing Berlin ’ s relationship with the Washington as “ complicated.
” Chancellor Angela Merkel was reportedly shocked .
The timing of the decision has also been questioned , with many observers believing that Trump deliberately staged the announcement to punish Merkel for refusing to attend a planned G-7 Summit in the U.S. that the president had been trying to arrange .
Merkel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus made it difficult for her to leave home at the present time and the G-7 planning never got off the ground , which angered Trump , who wanted to demonstrate his global leadership in an election year .
Trump ’ s behavior has real world consequences .
The Canadians and Europeans regard him as a joke , but a dangerous joke due to his impulsive decision making .
He can not be trusted and when he says something he often contradicts himself on the next day .
Arguably Donald Trump was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provided by an anti-war vote after many Americans took seriously his pledge to end the burgeoning overseas wars and bring the soldiers home .
It all may have been a lie even as he was saying it , but it was convincing at the time and a welcome antidote to Hillary the Hawk .
There will be costs associated with removing or relocating the troops in Germany , to include constructing new bases somewhere else , hopefully in the United States , but the realization that the soldiers are not really needed could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military across the board .
That would be strongly resisted by the Pentagon , the defense industries and Congress .
If Trump is serious about downsizing America ’ s overseas commitments , the reduction in the German force is a good first step , even if it was done for the wrong reasons .
It would be even better if he would force NATO into discussions about ending the alliance now that it is no longer needed , which would mean that the remaining American soldiers in Europe could come home .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge budget deficits and a national debt of $ 26 trillion , which is likely unsustainable .
Germany and other European nations , by way of contrast , balance their government budgets every year .
South Korea , which hosts 30,000 American soldiers , is wealthy and far more powerful than its northern neighbor .
The continued occupation of Japan with 50,000 troops makes no sense even considering an increase in China ’ s regional power .
Overall , the United States continues to have 170,000 soldiers , sailors , airmen and Marines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military budget exceeds one trillion dollars when everything is considered .
The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars may have cost as much as seven trillion dollars given the fact that much of the money was borrowed and will have to be repaid with interest .
It is past time for Donald Trump to make a bold move because the Democrats won ’ t have the backbone to rattle the status quo .
End the foreign wars , shut down the overseas bases and bring the soldiers home .
Spend tax dollars to improve the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wars for Saudis and Israelis .
A simple formula for change , but sometimes simple is best .

by Philip Giraldi via Strategic Culture Foundation
Two weeks ago a senior Trump Administration official revealed that the president had decided to withdraw 9,500 American soldiers from Germany and that the administration would also be capping total U.S. military presence in that country at 25,000, which might involve more cuts depending what is included in the numbers. The move was welcomed in some circles and strongly criticized in others, but many observers were also bemused by the announcement, noting that Donald Trump had previously ordered a reduction in force in Afghanistan and a complete withdrawal from Syria, neither of which has actually been achieved. In Syria, troops were only moved from the northern part of the country to the oil producing region in the south to protect the fields from seizure by ISIS, while in Afghanistan the nineteen-year-long training mission and infrastructure reconstruction continue.
In a somewhat related development, the Iraqi parliament has called for the removal of U.S. troops from the country, a demand that has been rejected by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Put it all together and it suggests that any announcement coming from the White House on ending America’s useless wars should be regarded with some skepticism.
The United States has its nearly 35,000 military personnel remaining in Germany as its contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded in 1949 to counter Soviet forces in Eastern Europe in what was to become the Warsaw Pact. Both the Organization and Pact were ostensibly defensive alliances and the U.S. active participation was intended to demonstrate American resolve to come to the aid of Western Europe. Currently, 75 years after the end of World War II and thirty years after the fall of communist governments in Eastern Europe, NATO is an anachronism, kept going by the many statesmen and military establishments of the various countries that have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Since the demise of the European communist regimes, NATO has found work in bombing Serbia, destroying Libya and in helping in the unending task to train an Afghan army.
In spite of the clearly diminished threat in Europe, NATO has expanded to 30 members, including most of the former communist states that made up the Warsaw Pact. The most recent acquisition was Montenegro in 2016, which contributed 2,400 soldiers to the NATO force. That expansion was carried out in spite of assurances given to the post-Soviet Russian government that military encroachment would not take place. Currently, NATO continues to focus on the threat from Moscow as its own viable raison d’être, with its deployments and training exercises often taking place right up against Russia’s borders.
Few really believe that the Russia, which has a GDP only the size of Italy’s, intends or is even capable of reestablishing anything like the old Soviet Union. But a vulnerable Russia is nevertheless interested in maintaining an old-fashioned sphere of influence around its borders, which explains the concern over developments in Ukraine, Georgia and the Baltic States.
Given the diminished threat level in Europe, the withdrawal of 9,500 soldiers should be welcomed by all parties. Trump has been sending the not unreasonable message that if the Europeans want more defense, they should pay for it themselves, though he has wrapped his proposal in his usual insulting and derogatory language. A wealthy Germany currently spends 1.1% of GDP on its military, far less than the 2% that NATO has declared to be a target to meet alliance commitments. That compares with the nearly 5% that the U.S. has been spending globally, inclusive of intelligence and national security costs.
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Fair enough for burden sharing, but the European concern is more focused on how Trump does what he does. For example, he announced the downsizing without informing America’s NATO partners. The Germans were surprised and pushed back immediately. Conservative politician Peter Beyer said “This is completely unacceptable, especially since nobody in Washington thought about informing its NATO ally Germany in advance,” and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas regretted the planned withdrawal, describing Berlin’s relationship with the Washington as “complicated.” Chancellor Angela Merkel was reportedly shocked.
The timing of the decision has also been questioned, with many observers believing that Trump deliberately staged the announcement to punish Merkel for refusing to attend a planned G-7 Summit in the U.S. that the president had been trying to arrange. Merkel argued that dealing with the consequences of the coronavirus made it difficult for her to leave home at the present time and the G-7 planning never got off the ground, which angered Trump, who wanted to demonstrate his global leadership in an election year.
Trump’s behavior has real world consequences. The Canadians and Europeans regard him as a joke, but a dangerous joke due to his impulsive decision making. He cannot be trusted and when he says something he often contradicts himself on the next day. Arguably Donald Trump was elected president on the margin of difference provided by an anti-war vote after many Americans took seriously his pledge to end the burgeoning overseas wars and bring the soldiers home. It all may have been a lie even as he was saying it, but it was convincing at the time and a welcome antidote to Hillary the Hawk.
There will be costs associated with removing or relocating the troops in Germany, to include constructing new bases somewhere else, hopefully in the United States, but the realization that the soldiers are not really needed could lead to the downsizing of the U.S. military across the board. That would be strongly resisted by the Pentagon, the defense industries and Congress.
If Trump is serious about downsizing America’s overseas commitments, the reduction in the German force is a good first step, even if it was done for the wrong reasons. It would be even better if he would force NATO into discussions about ending the alliance now that it is no longer needed, which would mean that the remaining American soldiers in Europe could come home.
The U.S. mission of global dominance has meant huge budget deficits and a national debt of $26 trillion, which is likely unsustainable. Germany and other European nations, by way of contrast, balance their government budgets every year. South Korea, which hosts 30,000 American soldiers, is wealthy and far more powerful than its northern neighbor. The continued occupation of Japan with 50,000 troops makes no sense even considering an increase in China’s regional power. Overall, the United States continues to have 170,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines based overseas in 150 countries and its military budget exceeds one trillion dollars when everything is considered. The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars may have cost as much as seven trillion dollars given the fact that much of the money was borrowed and will have to be repaid with interest.
It is past time for Donald Trump to make a bold move because the Democrats won’t have the backbone to rattle the status quo. End the foreign wars, shut down the overseas bases and bring the soldiers home. Spend tax dollars to improve the lives of Americans, not to fight wars for Saudis and Israelis. A simple formula for change, but sometimes simple is best.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--Atlanta now… Atlanta police shortages continue for second day – Every APD officer to receive $500 bo

Atlanta now… Atlanta police shortages continue for second day – Every APD officer to receive $500 bonus

Every officer of the Atlanta Police Department will receive a $ 500 bonus Thursday paid for by the Atlanta Police @ @ @ @ @ to FOX 5 .
The bonus is a thank you for the work and long @ @ @ @ @ in addition to recent protests and demonstrations , the foundation told FOX 5 .
“ @ @ @ @ @ attrition and boost morale , we issued a $ 500 bonus to each Atlanta Police @ @ @ @ @ the Atlanta Police Foundation released in a statement .
Despite assurances from department , overnight @ @ @ @ @ silence and calls left unanswered Atlanta Mayor Acknoweldges Police Morale Is ‘ Down Ten-Fold , @ @ @ @ @ To Work After Walkout Atlanta Is Going to Be Rioting Soon Atlanta PD reportedly just @ @ @ @ @ scanner that people snooping around the precinct were sighted ‘ in Antifa garb ’

www.broadcastify.com/webPlayer/30453
www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/18812
Every Atlanta Police Department officer to receive $500 bonus
Every officer of the Atlanta Police Department will receive a $500 bonus Thursday paid for by the Atlanta Police Foundation, the organization confirmed to FOX 5.
The bonus is a thank you for the work and long hours during the COVID-19 pandemic in addition to recent protests and demonstrations, the foundation told FOX 5.
“In an effort to stem attrition and boost morale, we issued a $500 bonus to each Atlanta Police Department officer today,” the Atlanta Police Foundation released in a statement.
www.fox5atlanta.com/news/every-atlanta-police-department-officer-to-receive-500-bonus
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Atlanta police shortages continue for second day
www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/us/rayshard-brooks-atlanta-police-not-answering-calls/index.html
Despite assurances from department, overnight police radio reveals bouts of silence and calls left unanswered
www.11alive.com/article/news/local/atlanta-police-department-call-outs-911-audio-reveals-issues/85-62c34bc3-6c1d-486d-b555-f944fa09b197
Atlanta Mayor Acknoweldges Police Morale Is ‘Down Ten-Fold,’ Begs Officers To Return To Work After Walkout
www.dailywire.com/news/atlanta-mayor-acknoweldges-police-morale-is-down-ten-fold-begs-officers-to-return-to-work-after-walkout
Atlanta Is Going to Be Rioting Soon
Atlanta PD reportedly just said on the Zone 6 scanner that people snooping around the precinct were sighted ‘in Antifa garb’
Atlanta PD reportedly just said on the Zone 6 scanner that people snooping around the precinct were sighted 'in Antifa garb' — Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) June 18, 2020
h/t Don


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--Left-wing media that pushes BLM protests and massive black crowds preparing to blame TRUMP rallies f

Left-wing media that pushes BLM protests and massive black crowds preparing to blame TRUMP rallies for “second wave” of infections

( Natural News ) The mainstream media is freaking out over President Donald Trump ’ s upcoming rally – the first since the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) crisis – in Tulsa , Oklahoma , because of the “ threat ” it poses in spreading more disease .
But this same media is praising the massive “ Black Lives Matter ” and Antifa demonstrations because those are different .
NBC News , for instance , recently tweeted a photo of thousands of people rallying in and around the Brooklyn Museum plaza in New York City for “ black trans lives.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ news outlet contended , was somehow no big deal because it was for a cause that NBC News apparently supports .
“ Protesters packed the courtyard of the Brooklyn Museum and surrounding parkway in New York City on Sunday in support of Black trans lives , merging the fight to protect two deeply marginalized groups , ” NBC News wrote in glowing adoration of the event , noting that attendance would be “ likely in the thousands.
” “ As the country rallies behind dismantling racist systems that put Black lives at risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s death , activists have also put a lens on Black trans people who are at the intersection of two dangerously marginalized groups , ” the fake news outlet went on to state .
After President Trump announced his rally , however , the tune quickly changed .
Not only did the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) suddenly become an issue – NBC News did not even mention the pandemic when reporting on the “ black trans lives ” rally – but so did Trump ’ s alleged carelessness about the alleged public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together in one space .
“ President Trump plans to rally his supporters next Saturday for the first time since most of the country was shuttered by the coronavirus , ” NBC News reported , using vastly different language and tone compared to its reporting on the “ black trans lives ” rally .
“ But health experts are questioning that decision , ” it went on to report .
Listen below to The Health Ranger Report as Mike Adams , the Health Ranger , talks about how the left-wing agenda and its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to win the election this fall : Why does coronavirus only spread when conservatives do things ?
Hilariously , NBC News went on to warn that “ health experts ” are supposedly concerned about the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) “ spreading among the crowd ” at Trump ’ s rally .
“ Large in-person gatherings where it is difficult for individuals to remain spaced at least 6 feet apart and attendees travel from outside the local area , ” could “ spark outbreaks when people return to their homes ” NBC News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) .
And it is not just the indoor part of Trump ’ s rally that NBC News is fear-mongering about .
The fake news outlet is also concerned about Trump supporters standing “ outside in line for hours ” before “ cramming into an arena ” because in both scenarios they are standing “ side by side ” or “ shoulder to shoulder.
” Trump rallies , according to Dr. Ashish Jha , director of Harvard University ‘ s Global Health Institute , represent “ an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the people who may know them and love them and see them afterward.
” We almost shed a tear at this emotional plea before quickly recognizing that neither Dr. Jha nor NBC News nor any of the other left-wing hacks decrying Trump rallies has said a word about Antifa and BLM terrorists gathering together side by side and shoulder to shoulder to do whatever it is they are doing every day in the streets of America .
“ The hypocrisy of the media is just amazing , ” wrote one Breitbart News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
No need to worry about the virus .
But if you go to a Trump rally , you ’ ll be a mass murderer by spreading the virus .
Seriously ?
They can ’ t have it both ways , but they ’ ll surely try.
” To keep up with the latest news about mainstream media bias , be sure to check out Deception.news .

by: Ethan Huff
(Natural News) The mainstream media is freaking out over President Donald Trump’s upcoming rally – the first since the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis – in Tulsa, Oklahoma, because of the “threat” it poses in spreading more disease. But this same media is praising the massive “Black Lives Matter” and Antifa demonstrations because those are different.
NBC News, for instance, recently tweeted a photo of thousands of people rallying in and around the Brooklyn Museum plaza in New York City for “black trans lives.” This massive gathering, the fake news outlet contended, was somehow no big deal because it was for a cause that NBC News apparently supports.
“Protesters packed the courtyard of the Brooklyn Museum and surrounding parkway in New York City on Sunday in support of Black trans lives, merging the fight to protect two deeply marginalized groups,” NBC News wrote in glowing adoration of the event, noting that attendance would be “likely in the thousands.”
“As the country rallies behind dismantling racist systems that put Black lives at risk in the wake of George Floyd’s death, activists have also put a lens on Black trans people who are at the intersection of two dangerously marginalized groups,” the fake news outlet went on to state.
After President Trump announced his rally, however, the tune quickly changed. Not only did the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) suddenly become an issue – NBC News did not even mention the pandemic when reporting on the “black trans lives” rally – but so did Trump’s alleged carelessness about the alleged public health risks associated with gathering his supporters together in one space.
“President Trump plans to rally his supporters next Saturday for the first time since most of the country was shuttered by the coronavirus,” NBC News reported, using vastly different language and tone compared to its reporting on the “black trans lives” rally.
“But health experts are questioning that decision,” it went on to report.
Listen below to The Health Ranger Report as Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, talks about how the left-wing agenda and its support for terrorism is actually helping Trump to win the election this fall:
Why does coronavirus only spread when conservatives do things?
Hilariously, NBC News went on to warn that “health experts” are supposedly concerned about the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) “spreading among the crowd” at Trump’s rally. “Large in-person gatherings where it is difficult for individuals to remain spaced at least 6 feet apart and attendees travel from outside the local area,” could “spark outbreaks when people return to their homes” NBC News added, quoting the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
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And it is not just the indoor part of Trump’s rally that NBC News is fear-mongering about. The fake news outlet is also concerned about Trump supporters standing “outside in line for hours” before “cramming into an arena” because in both scenarios they are standing “side by side” or “shoulder to shoulder.”
Trump rallies, according to Dr. Ashish Jha, director of Harvard University‘s Global Health Institute, represent “an extraordinarily dangerous move for the people participating and the people who may know them and love them and see them afterward.”
We almost shed a tear at this emotional plea before quickly recognizing that neither Dr. Jha nor NBC News nor any of the other left-wing hacks decrying Trump rallies has said a word about Antifa and BLM terrorists gathering together side by side and shoulder to shoulder to do whatever it is they are doing every day in the streets of America.
“The hypocrisy of the media is just amazing,” wrote one Breitbart News commenter.
“Go ahead and demonstrate. No need to worry about the virus. But if you go to a Trump rally, you’ll be a mass murderer by spreading the virus. Seriously? They can’t have it both ways, but they’ll surely try.”
To keep up with the latest news about mainstream media bias, be sure to check out Deception.news.
Sources for this article include:
Breitbart.com
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--Week 13 of the U.S. Labor Market Collapse: Week 3 of Recovery at Snail’s Pace Amid Data Chaos

29.2 million people still claim unemployment insurance , gig workers 1/3 of total .
Some states still not processing claims under federal programs .
My “ Reasonable Approximation ” for the Unemployment Rate .
The unemployment crisis – by far the worst since this type of data has been tracked – stopped getting worse in May and has lessened for the third week in a row , but lessened at snail ’ s pace , and it ’ s still so enormous that the improvements are relatively tiny .
Under all state and federal unemployment insurance programs combined , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) for gig workers , a total of 29.2 million people ( not seasonally adjusted ) are still claiming unemployment insurance , the Department of Labor reported this morning .
This is down from 29.5 million last week , and from 30.2 million the week before .
The chart below shows in blue the number of people receiving unemployment benefits under state programs , and in red the number of people receiving federal benefits , mostly gig workers : A few weeks ago , I switched to reporting only not-seasonally adjusted data for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not designed for a crisis of this magnitude , and the results went haywire .
In addition , the Labor Department revises seasonally adjusted data , often heavily , the following week , and dealing with them is like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall .
Not seasonally adjusted data are not revised and present a more accurate picture .
The flood of initial unemployment claims under state programs continues : ( not seasonally adjusted ) were processed in the week ended June 13 , down from 1.54 million a week ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this tsunami in late March , this is still more than double the records of the prior unemployment crises in 1982 and 2009 .
In other words , people who qualify for state unemployment benefits – regular employees as opposed to gig workers – are still getting laid off in very large numbers .
There are bits and pieces of evidence emerging that a larger portion of those layoffs are now from companies that were not part of the initial shutdowns of restaurants , bars , retailers , hotels , and other businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The number of people who continue to claim unemployment benefits a week or more after their initial claim under state programs become part of the “ insured unemployed.
” This number of people with “ continued claims ” under state programs in the current week , from 18.92 million in the prior week ( the blue segments of the columns in the first chart above ) .
In other words , more people got hired back or found another job – including at retailers , restaurants , dental practices , etc.
, @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the state unemployment rolls .
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance : Gig workers are now covered under the federal PUA program , which is administered by state unemployment offices .
In total , were processed in the week ending June 13 .
And , down from 9.73 million in the prior week .
In other words , here too , more gig workers started working again , and their number was larger than the number of gig workers who lost their work and filed unemployment claims .
These out-of-work gig workers account for about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PUA claims system now demonstrates for the first time just how exposed gig workers are , and how many of them lose their work in a crisis .
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation .
Continued claims under the federal PEUC program more than doubled during the week to 1.08 million .
Other federal programs include those that cover laid-off federal employees ( 15,514 continued claims ) and Newly Discharged Veterans ( 11,901 continued claims ) .
Some states still behind in processing claims The PUA program for gig workers was difficult to implement for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done , others haven ’ t gotten it done .
But every week , more states start processing these claims .
As of today ’ s report , six states still have not processed any claims by gig workers under the PUA program , including the biggie , Florida : And 16 states have not yet processed any claims under the federal PEUC program , including the biggie , Florida .
As these states eventually figure out how to do it and catch up , they will trigger additional claims under the PUA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be reports that some states are still having trouble catching up with the tsunami of state unemployment claims , and that many laid-off workers were still not able to file their UI claim .
What does all this mean ?
I ’ m now fairly sure that the unemployment crisis bottomed out in May .
A large number of people are still losing their jobs , and now an increasing number of those lost jobs are higher-paying jobs .
But other people are finding new jobs or are being called back .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a particular week now outnumber the people who lost their jobs in that week .
Beyond the official Data Chaos : “ over 30 million people ” lost their jobs and remain unemployed .
The two US agencies that are reporting unemployment data – every Thursday , the Department of Labor with its claims for unemployment insurance ; and at the beginning of every month , the Bureau of Labor Statistics with its survey-based jobs report – disagree widely on the unemployment numbers : a difference between these two agencies of about 9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last week .
The BLS has gone off the deep end for systematic reasons and officially admits to at least part of its errors .
So our most accurate stab at the unemployment situation in the US is the Labor Department ’ s unemployment insurance data – the 29.2 million people still claiming unemployment insurance under all programs .
But states are still behind processing claims , and some people who lost their work don ’ t qualify for any benefits .
So , all added up , it ’ s still reasonable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people ” lost their jobs and are still unemployed and want to work .
My “ Reasonable Approximation ” for the unemployment rate : 20 % + .
The unemployment rate is in the eye of the beholder .
Both agencies report various unemployment rates , and they ’ re all over the place .
In early June , the BLS reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 % .
But there is a way to approximate it : 29.2 million people claim unemployment insurance , in a labor force of 158.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
Add the people who lost their jobs but don ’ t qualify for unemployment insurance , and add the people who never worked , or who haven ’ t worked recently , but want to work and can not find a job , such as recent graduates , and suddenly the unemployment rate is well above 20 % .
And the term , an unemployment rate of “ above 20 % ” seems like a reasonable approximation of the current conditions of the labor market .

29.2 million people still claim unemployment insurance, gig workers 1/3 of total. Some states still not processing claims under federal programs. My “Reasonable Approximation” for the Unemployment Rate.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The unemployment crisis – by far the worst since this type of data has been tracked – stopped getting worse in May and has lessened for the third week in a row, but lessened at snail’s pace, and it’s still so enormous that the improvements are relatively tiny.
Under all state and federal unemployment insurance programs combined, including the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) for gig workers, a total of 29.2 million people (not seasonally adjusted) are still claiming unemployment insurance, the Department of Labor reported this morning. This is down from 29.5 million last week, and from 30.2 million the week before. The chart below shows in blue the number of people receiving unemployment benefits under state programs, and in red the number of people receiving federal benefits, mostly gig workers:
A few weeks ago, I switched to reporting only not-seasonally adjusted data for unemployment claims because the seasonal adjustments were not designed for a crisis of this magnitude, and the results went haywire.
In addition, the Labor Department revises seasonally adjusted data, often heavily, the following week, and dealing with them is like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall. Not seasonally adjusted data are not revised and present a more accurate picture.
Still a flood of initial state unemployment claims.
The flood of initial unemployment claims under state programs continues: 1.43 million initial claims (not seasonally adjusted) were processed in the week ended June 13, down from 1.54 million a week ago. While down a whole bunch from this tsunami in late March, this is still more than double the records of the prior unemployment crises in 1982 and 2009.
In other words, people who qualify for state unemployment benefits – regular employees as opposed to gig workers – are still getting laid off in very large numbers. There are bits and pieces of evidence emerging that a larger portion of those layoffs are now from companies that were not part of the initial shutdowns of restaurants, bars, retailers, hotels, and other businesses, but from higher-paying jobs across industries.
The number of people who continue to claim unemployment benefits a week or more after their initial claim under state programs become part of the “insured unemployed.” This number of people with “continued claims” under state programs declined to 18.65 million in the current week, from 18.92 million in the prior week (the blue segments of the columns in the first chart above).
In other words, more people got hired back or found another job – including at retailers, restaurants, dental practices, etc., that have reopened – than were added to the state unemployment rolls.
Federal programs: gig workers are 1/3 of insured unemployed.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance: Gig workers are now covered under the federal PUA program, which is administered by state unemployment offices. In total, 760,526 initial PUA claims were processed in the week ending June 13.
And 9.28 million gig workers receive PUA benefits , down from 9.73 million in the prior week. In other words, here too, more gig workers started working again, and their number was larger than the number of gig workers who lost their work and filed unemployment claims.
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These out-of-work gig workers account for about one-third of all insured unemployed. The PUA claims system now demonstrates for the first time just how exposed gig workers are, and how many of them lose their work in a crisis.
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation. Continued claims under the federal PEUC program more than doubled during the week to 1.08 million.
Other federal programs include those that cover laid-off federal employees (15,514 continued claims) and Newly Discharged Veterans (11,901 continued claims).
Some states still behind in processing claims
The PUA program for gig workers was difficult to implement for states. Some scrambled to get it done, others still haven’t gotten it done. But every week, more states start processing these claims. As of today’s report, six states still have not processed any claims by gig workers under the PUA program, including the biggie, Florida:
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
New Hampshire
Oregon
West Virginia
And 16 states have not yet processed any claims under the federal PEUC program, including the biggie, Florida. As these states eventually figure out how to do it and catch up, they will trigger additional claims under the PUA and PEUC programs.
There continue to be reports that some states are still having trouble catching up with the tsunami of state unemployment claims, and that many laid-off workers were still not able to file their UI claim.
What does all this mean?
I’m now fairly sure that the unemployment crisis bottomed out in May. A large number of people are still losing their jobs, and now an increasing number of those lost jobs are higher-paying jobs. But other people are finding new jobs or are being called back. And the people who start working again in a particular week now outnumber the people who lost their jobs in that week.
Beyond the official Data Chaos: “over 30 million people” lost their jobs and remain unemployed. The two US agencies that are reporting unemployment data – every Thursday, the Department of Labor with its claims for unemployment insurance; and at the beginning of every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics with its survey-based jobs report – disagree widely on the unemployment numbers: a difference between these two agencies of about 9 million unemployed, as I pointed out last week. The BLS has gone off the deep end for systematic reasons and officially admits to at least part of its errors.
So our most accurate stab at the unemployment situation in the US is the Labor Department’s unemployment insurance data – the 29.2 million people still claiming unemployment insurance under all programs. But states are still behind processing claims, and some people who lost their work don’t qualify for any benefits. So, all added up, it’s still reasonable to say that “over 30 million people” lost their jobs and are still unemployed and want to work.
My “Reasonable Approximation” for the unemployment rate: 20%+. The unemployment rate is in the eye of the beholder. Both agencies report various unemployment rates, and they’re all over the place. In early June, the BLS reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%.
But there is a way to approximate it: 29.2 million people claim unemployment insurance, in a labor force of 158.3 million, for a rate of 18.4%. Add the people who lost their jobs but don’t qualify for unemployment insurance, and add the people who never worked, or who haven’t worked recently, but want to work and cannot find a job, such as recent graduates, and suddenly the unemployment rate is well above 20%. And the term, an unemployment rate of “above 20%” seems like a reasonable approximation of the current conditions of the labor market.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--Fed Ends QE, Total Assets Drop. Liquidity Injection Ends

The Big Shift : Fed shifts to propping up consumption rather than asset prices .
There have been endless announcements by the Fed that they will add this and that to their asset-purchase programs .
The media jumped all over these announcements , how the Fed is going to get into the junk bond market and ETFs with hundreds of billions of dollars .
Each time , all kinds of hoopla broke out in the markets with stocks soaring and junk-bond ETFs soaring , and everything soaring – despite the worst economy in memory , despite 30 million people on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports heading our way .
The Fed has set up an alphabet soup with 10 of these programs so far – and it has been buying some of the assets it said it would buy , but it also has been shedding alphabet-soup assets it had bought in March and April , while whittling down its purchase programs of Treasuries and MBS for the past two months .
And repos unwound , and dollar liquidity swaps unwound , and now total assets on the Fed ’ s balance sheet for the week ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : This $ 74 billion decline in total assets during the week was powered by a plunge in repo balances and foreign central bank liquidity swaps , while some alphabet-soup programs also unwound .
And the junk-bond and ETF buying program stalled .
And there is a big shift happening : The Fed has started lending to entities , including states and banks , under programs that channel funds into spending by states , municipalities , and businesses , rather than into the financial markets .
These types of programs are propping up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a new thing .
I don ’ t think the hyper-inflated markets , which have soared only because the Fed poured $ 3 trillion into them , are ready for this shift .
The $ 74 billion in total assets that the Fed shed during the week brought the Fed ’ s total assets down to a still breath-taking $ 7.095 trillion .
You can see from the curve that this isn ’ t an accident , but part of a plan to front-load QE and then back off – rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : The Fed is still offering theoretically huge amounts of repos every day , but it has tweaked the offering terms , so that there is now almost no appetite for them , and what ’ s left on the balance sheet are older term repos that unwind and are gone .
On today ’ s balance sheet , the repo balances dropped by $ 88 billion from the prior week to $ 79 billion , the lowest since September 18 : The Fed ’ s “ dollar liquidity swap lines ” with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for seven weeks , after the $ 400 billion surge in early April .
But this week some swaps matured and were unwound , and the balance dropped by $ 92 billion to $ 352 billion .
Of that drop , $ 75 billion came from the swap line with the ECB , $ 9 billion from the Bank of Japan , and $ 7 billion from the Bank of England ( country data via the New York Fed ) : With these swaps , the Fed lends newly created dollars to other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as collateral .
When the swap matures , the Fed gets its dollars back , and the foreign central bank gets its currency back .
Fed doesn ’ t wan na buy junk bonds and ETFs anymore .
Ballyhooed Alphabet-Soup of SPVs declines by $ 1.7 billion .
This is where much of the media hype has focused on , following the endless announcements by the Fed .
The Fed says that these bailout schemes are authorized under Section 13 paragraph 3 of the Federal Reserve Act , as amended by the Dodd-Frank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ thirteen-three facilities.
” Under the program , the Fed creates a Special Purpose Vehicle ( SPV ) as an LLC .
The Treasury pads it with taxpayer equity capital .
The Fed lends to the SPV with a leverage ratio of 10 to 1 .
Then it ’ s off to the races , with the SPV buying up the entire world , or so it would seem , according to the media .
The number of SPVs keeps growing .
There are 10 active ones on today ’ s balance sheet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed standards , they ’ re small .
After an initial burst in early April of $ 130 billion spread among the first three SPVs , there came a lull , and the overall balance declined .
New SPVs were added , but as the balance of the first three SPVs declined , the overall balance also declined until mid-May .
Starting in late May , the new SPVs added enough so that overall balances began rising , and reached $ 196 billion by June 10 .
But this week , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion : Only two SPVs grew this week , and only by tiny amounts : The Corporate Credit Facility ( CCF , yellow , buys corporate bonds in the secondary market ) ticked up by $ 1.5 billion in the week to $ 38.9 billion .
The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility ( PPPLF , red , buys government-guaranteed forgivable PPP loans from banks ) edged up by $ 600 million to $ 57.6 billion .
All other SPVs declined in the week .
The new kid on the block this week is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not yet part of my chart because it has a small negative balance , a sign that it is not fully operational just yet .
If the markets were hoping that the Fed would buy up half of the junk-bond market and pile willy-nilly into ETFs , well , it isn ’ t happening .
There are now three SPVs that route funds into consumption rather than asset purchases : The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility ( $ 57 billion ) , the Main Street Lending Program ( $ 32 billion ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 16 billion ) .
This is not QE but more like paying businesses and municipalities , and ultimately workers/consumers , to consume .
This money is circulating in the economy rather than inflating asset prices .
The Fed added $ 26 billion of Treasury securities during the week , bringing the total to $ 4.17 trillion .
Over the past four weeks , the balance increased in a range between $ 9 billion in $ 26 billion , about the same range before the outbreak of bailout mania : This progression of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tapering , is visible in the flattening curve of total Treasuries on the Fed ’ s balance sheet : The Fed has cut its purchases of government-backed mortgage-backed securities ( “ Agency MBS ” ) after the initial burst .
But its MBS trades take one to three months to settle , and the Fed books them after they settle , which creates an erratic pattern .
So what we ’ re seeing today are settled trades from some time ago .
The balance of MBS rose by $ 83 billion to $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mortgage Backed Securities that the Fed started buying as part of its bailout program .
But the balance of these CMBS has remained flat over the past three weeks at $ 9.1 billion .
For the stock market , a new phase has started .
It now has to figure out how to stand on its own swollen and inflated legs in the worst economy in a lifetime , with the worst corporate earnings reports coming its way , while stock prices are ludicrously inflated .
So good luck .

The Big Shift: Fed shifts to propping up consumption rather than asset prices.
There have been endless announcements by the Fed that they will add this and that to their asset-purchase programs. The media jumped all over these announcements, how the Fed is going to get into the junk bond market and ETFs with hundreds of billions of dollars. Each time, all kinds of hoopla broke out in the markets with stocks soaring and junk-bond ETFs soaring, and everything soaring – despite the worst economy in memory, despite 30 million people on unemployment insurance, and despite shocking earnings reports heading our way.
The Fed has set up an alphabet soup with 10 of these programs so far – and it has been buying some of the assets it said it would buy, but it also has been shedding alphabet-soup assets it had bought in March and April, while whittling down its purchase programs of Treasuries and MBS for the past two months. And repos unwound, and dollar liquidity swaps unwound, and now total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet for the week ended June 17, released this afternoon, actually shrank by $74 billion :
This $74 billion decline in total assets during the week was powered by a plunge in repo balances and foreign central bank liquidity swaps, while some alphabet-soup programs also unwound. And the junk-bond and ETF buying program stalled.
And there is a big shift happening: The Fed has started lending to entities, including states and banks, under programs that channel funds into spending by states, municipalities, and businesses, rather than into the financial markets. These types of programs are propping up consumption – not asset prices. That’s a new thing. I don’t think the hyper-inflated markets, which have soared only because the Fed poured $3 trillion into them, are ready for this shift.
The $74 billion in total assets that the Fed shed during the week brought the Fed’s total assets down to a still breath-taking $7.095 trillion. You can see from the curve that this isn’t an accident, but part of a plan to front-load QE and then back off – rather than let it drag on for years:
Repo balances dropped by $74 billion.
The Fed is still offering theoretically huge amounts of repos every day, but it has tweaked the offering terms, so that there is now almost no appetite for them, and what’s left on the balance sheet are older term repos that unwind and are gone. On today’s balance sheet, the repo balances dropped by $88 billion from the prior week to $79 billion, the lowest since September 18:
Central bank liquidity-swap balances dropped by $92 billion.
The Fed’s “dollar liquidity swap lines” with other central banks had been roughly flat for seven weeks, after the $400 billion surge in early April. But this week some swaps matured and were unwound, and the balance dropped by $92 billion to $352 billion. Of that drop, $75 billion came from the swap line with the ECB, $9 billion from the Bank of Japan, and $7 billion from the Bank of England (country data via the New York Fed):
With these swaps, the Fed lends newly created dollars to other central banks and takes their domestic currency as collateral. When the swap matures, the Fed gets its dollars back, and the foreign central bank gets its currency back.
Fed doesn’t wanna buy junk bonds and ETFs anymore. Ballyhooed Alphabet-Soup of SPVs declines by $1.7 billion.
This is where much of the media hype has focused on, following the endless announcements by the Fed. The Fed says that these bailout schemes are authorized under Section 13 paragraph 3 of the Federal Reserve Act, as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act. And Powell calls these creatures “thirteen-three facilities.”
Under the program, the Fed creates a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) as an LLC. The Treasury pads it with taxpayer equity capital. The Fed lends to the SPV with a leverage ratio of 10 to 1. Then it’s off to the races, with the SPV buying up the entire world, or so it would seem, according to the media.
The number of SPVs keeps growing. There are 10 active ones on today’s balance sheet. But in dollar terms, by the Fed standards, they’re small. After an initial burst in early April of $130 billion spread among the first three SPVs, there came a lull, and the overall balance declined. New SPVs were added, but as the balance of the first three SPVs declined, the overall balance also declined until mid-May.
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Starting in late May, the new SPVs added enough so that overall balances began rising, and reached $196 billion by June 10. But this week, the overall balance ticked down by $1.6 billion:
Only two SPVs grew this week, and only by tiny amounts: The Corporate Credit Facility (CCF, yellow, buys corporate bonds in the secondary market) ticked up by $1.5 billion in the week to $38.9 billion. The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility (PPPLF, red, buys government-guaranteed forgivable PPP loans from banks) edged up by $600 million to $57.6 billion.
All other SPVs declined in the week. The new kid on the block this week is the revived and reviled TALF, which is not yet part of my chart because it has a small negative balance, a sign that it is not fully operational just yet.
If the markets were hoping that the Fed would buy up half of the junk-bond market and pile willy-nilly into ETFs, well, it isn’t happening.
There are now three SPVs that route funds into consumption rather than asset purchases: The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility ($57 billion), the Main Street Lending Program ($32 billion), and the Municipal Liquidity Facility ($16 billion). This is not QE but more like paying businesses and municipalities, and ultimately workers/consumers, to consume. This money is circulating in the economy rather than inflating asset prices.
Treasury balances rise by $26 billion
The Fed added $26 billion of Treasury securities during the week, bringing the total to $4.17 trillion. Over the past four weeks, the balance increased in a range between $9 billion in $26 billion, about the same range before the outbreak of bailout mania:
This progression of the Treasury purchases, from front-loading to tapering, is visible in the flattening curve of total Treasuries on the Fed’s balance sheet:
MBS balances rise by $83 billion.
The Fed has cut its purchases of government-backed mortgage-backed securities (“Agency MBS”) after the initial burst. But its MBS trades take one to three months to settle, and the Fed books them after they settle, which creates an erratic pattern. So what we’re seeing today are settled trades from some time ago.
The balance of MBS rose by $83 billion to $1.92 trillion. This includes Agency Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities that the Fed started buying as part of its bailout program. But the balance of these CMBS has remained flat over the past three weeks at $9.1 billion.
For the stock market, a new phase has started. It now has to figure out how to stand on its own swollen and inflated legs in the worst economy in a lifetime, with the worst corporate earnings reports coming its way, while stock prices are ludicrously inflated. So good luck.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--Americans Have Already Skipped Payments On More Than 100 Million Loans, And Job Losses Continue To E

Americans Have Already Skipped Payments On More Than 100 Million Loans, And Job Losses Continue To Escalate

Those that have been hoping for some sort of a “ V-shaped recovery ” have had their hopes completely dashed .
U.S. workers continue to lose jobs at a staggering rate , and economic activity continues to remain at deeply suppressed levels all over the nation .
Of course this wasn ’ t supposed to happen now that states have been “ reopening ” their economies .
We were told that things would soon be getting back to normal and that the economic numbers would rebound dramatically .
But that is not happening .
In fact , the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits last week was much higher than expected… Weekly jobless claims stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hammer the U.S. economy .
First-time claims totaled 1.5 million last week , higher than the 1.3 million that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting .
The government report ’ s total was 58,000 lower than the previous week ’ s 1.566 million , which was revised up by 24,000 .
To put this in perspective , let me once again remind my readers that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a single week was just 695,000 .
So even though more than 44 million Americans had already filed initial claims for unemployment benefits before this latest report , there were still enough new people losing jobs to more than double that old record from 1982 .
That is just astounding .
We were told that the economy would be regaining huge amounts of jobs by now , but instead job losses remain at a catastrophic level that is unlike anything that we have ever seen before in all of U.S. history .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a grand total of nearly 46 million Americans have now filed initial claims for unemployment benefits since the COVID-19 pandemic began .
If you can read that statement and still believe that the U.S. economy is not imploding , I would like to know what you are smoking , because it must be pretty powerful .
Some of the things that we are seeing happen around the country right now are absolutely nuts .
For example , earlier this week in Kentucky it was being reported that people were waiting in line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a state official face to face about their unprocessed unemployment claims… By now , the U.S. economy was supposed to be roaring back to life and we were supposed to be entering a new golden age of American prosperity .
Unfortunately , the truth is that more bad economic news is hitting us on a continual basis , and that isn ’ t going to change any time soon .
Over the past few days , we have learned that Hilton is laying off 22 percent of its corporate staff , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be eliminating 3,400 jobs and closing 250 stores… Needless to say , all of these job losses are having a tremendous ripple effect throughout the economy .
Without paychecks coming in , a lot of Americans are having a really tough time paying their bills , and the Wall Street Journal is reporting that payments have already been skipped on more than 100 million loans… To me , that is an almost unimaginable number , and it has become clear that a tremendous amount of pain is ahead for the financial institutions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of people out there are going to keep hoping that there will be some sort of an economic rebound , but the cold , hard reality of the matter is that fear of COVID-19 is going to keep a large segment of the population from resuming normal economic activities for the foreseeable future .
And it certainly doesn ’ t help that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. has been steadily rising over the past couple of weeks and that the mainstream media has been endlessly warning that a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you doubt what I am saying , just look at what is happening to the restaurant industry .
We had started to see a small bit of improvement in the numbers , but now fear of a “ second wave ” has caused restaurant traffic to start cratering again… After three months of slow but consistent improvement in restaurant dining data in the US and across the globe , in its latest update on “ the state of the restaurant industry ” , OpenTable today reported the biggest drop in seated restaurant diners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reservations ) since the depth of the global shutdown in March .
As shown in the OpenTable graphic below , on Sunday , June 14 , restaurant traffic suddenly tumbled , sliding from a -66.5 % y/y decline as of June 13 to -78.8 % globally .
This was mostly due to a sharp drop in US restaurant diners , which plunged by 13 % – from -65 % to -78 % – the biggest one day drop since the start of the shutdown in the US , and the second biggest one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is another area where we are seeing signs of big trouble ahead .
The following comes from Yves Smith… Business travel is not coming back any time soon .
People are getting accustomed to Zoom .
And word may also get out that domestic flying is much worse than it used to be , which will be a deterrent to those who might be so bold as to want to get on a plane .
That is a fundamental blow to airlines , airport vendors , hotels , restaurants , and convention centers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % which if anything seems high based on my personal datapoints .
The pricings I see say that hotel operators are not expecting much if any improvement through the summer .
Like many of you , I wish that economic conditions would go back to the way they used to be , but that simply is not going to happen .
Yes , we will see economic numbers go up and down over the coming months , but a return to “ the good times ” is not in the cards .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is just the beginning of our problems , and I am working on a new project right now which will explain why this is true in great detail .
So stay tuned , because things are about to get really , really “ interesting ” .

by Michael Snyder
Those that have been hoping for some sort of a “V-shaped recovery” have had their hopes completely dashed. U.S. workers continue to lose jobs at a staggering rate, and economic activity continues to remain at deeply suppressed levels all over the nation. Of course this wasn’t supposed to happen now that states have been “reopening” their economies. We were told that things would soon be getting back to normal and that the economic numbers would rebound dramatically. But that is not happening. In fact, the number of Americans that filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week was much higher than expected…
Weekly jobless claims stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hammer the U.S. economy. First-time claims totaled 1.5 million last week, higher than the 1.3 million that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting. The government report’s total was 58,000 lower than the previous week’s 1.566 million, which was revised up by 24,000.
To put this in perspective, let me once again remind my readers that prior to this year the all-time record for a single week was just 695,000. So even though more than 44 million Americans had already filed initial claims for unemployment benefits before this latest report, there were still enough new people losing jobs to more than double that old record from 1982.
That is just astounding. We were told that the economy would be regaining huge amounts of jobs by now, but instead job losses remain at a catastrophic level that is unlike anything that we have ever seen before in all of U.S. history.
With the addition of this latest number, a grand total of nearly 46 million Americans have now filed initial claims for unemployment benefits since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
If you can read that statement and still believe that the U.S. economy is not imploding, I would like to know what you are smoking, because it must be pretty powerful.
Some of the things that we are seeing happen around the country right now are absolutely nuts. For example, earlier this week in Kentucky it was being reported that people were waiting in line for up to 8 hours to talk with a state official face to face about their unprocessed unemployment claims…
The state police said it will be an 8 hour wait from the back of the line to speak to a state employee about unemployment. pic.twitter.com/plGONcpS6n — Daniel Desrochers (@drdesrochers) June 17, 2020
This wasn’t supposed to happen.
By now, the U.S. economy was supposed to be roaring back to life and we were supposed to be entering a new golden age of American prosperity.
Unfortunately, the truth is that more bad economic news is hitting us on a continual basis, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.
Over the past few days, we have learned that Hilton is laying off 22 percent of its corporate staff, and AT&T has announced that it will be eliminating 3,400 jobs and closing 250 stores…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The wireless carrier AT&T is cutting 3,400 jobs and shutting down 250 stores over the next few weeks, according to a statement from the Communications Workers of America, a union representing AT&T workers. The AT&T Mobility and Cricket Wireless retail closures will affect 1,300 jobs, while the other layoffs are said to be affecting technical and clerical workers.
Needless to say, all of these job losses are having a tremendous ripple effect throughout the economy.
Without paychecks coming in, a lot of Americans are having a really tough time paying their bills, and the Wall Street Journal is reporting that payments have already been skipped on more than 100 million loans…
Americans have skipped payments on more than 100 million student loans, auto loans and other forms of debt since the coronavirus hit the U.S., the latest sign of the toll the pandemic is taking on people’s finances. The number of accounts that enrolled in deferment, forbearance or some other type of relief since March 1 and remain in such a state rose to 106 million at the end of May, triple the number at the end of April, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion.
Wow.
To me, that is an almost unimaginable number, and it has become clear that a tremendous amount of pain is ahead for the financial institutions that are holding these loans.
A lot of people out there are going to keep hoping that there will be some sort of an economic rebound, but the cold, hard reality of the matter is that fear of COVID-19 is going to keep a large segment of the population from resuming normal economic activities for the foreseeable future. And it certainly doesn’t help that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. has been steadily rising over the past couple of weeks and that the mainstream media has been endlessly warning that a “second wave” is coming.
If you doubt what I am saying, just look at what is happening to the restaurant industry. We had started to see a small bit of improvement in the numbers, but now fear of a “second wave” has caused restaurant traffic to start cratering again…
After three months of slow but consistent improvement in restaurant dining data in the US and across the globe, in its latest update on “the state of the restaurant industry”, OpenTable today reported the biggest drop in seated restaurant diners (from online, phone and walk-in reservations) since the depth of the global shutdown in March. As shown in the OpenTable graphic below, on Sunday, June 14, restaurant traffic suddenly tumbled, sliding from a -66.5% y/y decline as of June 13 to -78.8% globally. This was mostly due to a sharp drop in US restaurant diners, which plunged by 13% – from -65% to -78% – the biggest one day drop since the start of the shutdown in the US, and the second biggest one day drop on record.
Business travel is another area where we are seeing signs of big trouble ahead. The following comes from Yves Smith…
Business travel is not coming back any time soon. People are getting accustomed to Zoom. And word may also get out that domestic flying is much worse than it used to be, which will be a deterrent to those who might be so bold as to want to get on a plane. That is a fundamental blow to airlines, airport vendors, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. Hotel occupancy in April was 24.5% which if anything seems high based on my personal datapoints. The pricings I see say that hotel operators are not expecting much if any improvement through the summer.
Like many of you, I wish that economic conditions would go back to the way they used to be, but that simply is not going to happen.
Yes, we will see economic numbers go up and down over the coming months, but a return to “the good times” is not in the cards.
And what hardly anyone realizes is that this is just the beginning of our problems, and I am working on a new project right now which will explain why this is true in great detail.
So stay tuned, because things are about to get really, really “interesting”.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-19--Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Your California Privacy Rights & Do Not Sell My Personal Information The California Consumer Privacy Act ( CCPA ) , @ @ @ @ @ provides California residents with the following rights ( the following is copied from leginfo .
@ @ @ @ @ of Californians to know what personal information is being collected about them ; The right @ @ @ @ @ their personal information is sold or disclosed and to whom ; The right of Californians @ @ @ @ @ sale of personal information ; The right of Californians to access their personal information ; @ @ @ @ @ equal service and price , even if they exercise their privacy rights .
In addition @ @ @ @ @ the right to request that a business delete any personal information about the consumer which @ @ @ @ @ the consumer .
To exercise your California rights and request any of the actions or @ @ @ @ @ Privacy Act ( CCPA ) , you can contact ( your site name ) through @ @ @ @

Your California Privacy Rights & Do Not Sell My Personal Information
The California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), also known as AB-375, provides California residents with the following rights (the following is copied from leginfo. legislature.ca.gov/): The right of Californians to know what personal information is being collected about them; The right of Californians to know whether their personal information is sold or disclosed and to whom; The right of Californians to say no to the sale of personal information; The right of Californians to access their personal information; The right of Californians to equal service and price, even if they exercise their privacy rights. In addition, a consumer shall have the right to request that a business delete any personal information about the consumer which the business has collected from the consumer.
To exercise your California rights and request any of the actions or information under the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), you can contact Investment Watch Blog through the following methods:
admin@investmentwatchblog.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Calm Before the Storm?

Calm Before the Storm?

Last several weeks in the market have been a true roller coaster ride .
With bombardment of news on a daily basis ( i.e .
Trump ’ s promising great things for the economy based on the stock market , rise of COVID19 cases in U.S. and Asia , Fed ’ s announcement to buy corporate bonds , new infrastructure stimulus , Powell ’ s FOMC speech , etc ) and the market constantly moving up and down , I probably wasn ’ t the one who felt dizzy and exhausted .
Compared to all that craziness , last few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , the end is not here yet .
As I am writing , more market movers are probably brewing in the background , ready to be released in the next several weeks .
As a Texas resident , it is terrifying to see Covid19 cases increasing by 3-4000 cases on a daily basis now .
With Abbott being reluctant to take any actions that could negatively affect the economy , I think it ’ s safe to assume that the cases will only grow further in the near future .
With this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the media heads shouting how the hospitals in TX , AZ , NC , and CA are running out of spaces .
Trump also just signed a bill yesterday approving the sanction against China for its persecutions in the Xinjiang region .
My forecast for the coming weeks is , we might first see some growing followed by another dip with any of the issues that I just mentioned , which will be quickly countered by a cushioning action from either Fed or Trump .
Then , I foresee another temporary bull market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Powell and Powell stepping off from the QE pedal like he promised during the recent congressional hearings .
Whether you gain or lose from this crazy market , remember that just by taking a part in it , you are first handedly witnessing potentially one of the most historic economic events in the U.S. history .
tl ; dr The sideway movements that we ’ ve seen in this week probably won ’ t last long .
More craziness to follow for the coming weeks .
Get your sleep while you can .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ReadSync31
Last several weeks in the market have been a true roller coaster ride. With bombardment of news on a daily basis (i.e. Trump’s promising great things for the economy based on the stock market, rise of COVID19 cases in U.S. and Asia, Fed’s announcement to buy corporate bonds, new infrastructure stimulus, Powell’s FOMC speech, etc) and the market constantly moving up and down, I probably wasn’t the one who felt dizzy and exhausted. Compared to all that craziness, last few days have felt almost too calm. However, the end is not here yet.
As I am writing, more market movers are probably brewing in the background, ready to be released in the next several weeks. As a Texas resident, it is terrifying to see Covid19 cases increasing by 3-4000 cases on a daily basis now. With Abbott being reluctant to take any actions that could negatively affect the economy, I think it’s safe to assume that the cases will only grow further in the near future. With this trend continuing, I can already picture the media heads shouting how the hospitals in TX, AZ, NC, and CA are running out of spaces. Trump also just signed a bill yesterday approving the sanction against China for its persecutions in the Xinjiang region.
My forecast for the coming weeks is, we might first see some growing followed by another dip with any of the issues that I just mentioned, which will be quickly countered by a cushioning action from either Fed or Trump. Then, I foresee another temporary bull market until it reaches a point that satisfies Powell and Powell stepping off from the QE pedal like he promised during the recent congressional hearings.
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Whether you gain or lose from this crazy market, remember that just by taking a part in it, you are first handedly witnessing potentially one of the most historic economic events in the U.S. history.
tl;dr The sideway movements that we’ve seen in this week probably won’t last long. More craziness to follow for the coming weeks. Get your sleep while you can.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.