investmentwatchblog--2020-05-02--Backwards into the Future

Backwards into the Future

No , I ’ m still not over the fact that they all initially missed the virus when they should have seen it most of all .
The reasons why must be evaluated in every single location , in governments , CDC equivalents and obviously the WHO .
A main reason is that they were all focusing on their economy , not the virus , -at least somewhat- ironically damaging their economies in the process .
I ’ m just afraid that you ’ re not going to prevent the next time , the next huge and deadly miss , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultimately controlled by special interests .
But at the same time , we ’ re past that first moment , which was somewhere in November or December ( 31st at the latest ) , and the next major threats loom .
After the Big Miss came the lockdowns , and as I said in Little Managers , that ’ s the one thing all these politicians may actually be somewhat good at .
They stink at initial detection and reaction time , they stink at forward vision , but they can get people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and sell them that in the media .
They even get praised for it .
Which is understandable , since their role is to set old ladies ’ minds at ease , and most people , whatever age they are , have such minds , understandable but unfortunate , because 1 ) we ’ re about to leave the lockdowns phase as well and 2 ) they ’ re sure to screw up this one as royally as the first detection moment .
It would be good if everyone by now understood why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after , initial detection has failed and the virus has been allowed to enter a society , if you face a highly contagious and deadly -to humans- virus that you don ’ t know anything about , but there are plenty people today who claim the lockdowns are what does the damage .
In case there is such a virus and you miss your first -and only- chance at “ Crushing the Curve ” ( as opposed to flattening it , which is of limited use at best ) , you must prevent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which means you need to keep people apart from each other to one extent or another .
Societies have understood this for 1000s of years , and we don ’ t ?
Keep people apart until you either know more about the virus , or you have a vaccine , or people become immune to it .
Well , there ’ s no vaccine – did you know that no vaccine for a coronavirus was ever developed ?
- , immunity is in a very early phase , and just about literally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus is contradicted within 24 hours or so by a different report or group of “ experts ” .
These are truly not things we should let politicians fresh out of popularity contests decide .
But that ’ s the model of our societies .
The various relaxations of the various lockdowns are going to be an unmitigated disaster , guaranteed .
We have all the elements for such disasters .
It ’ ll work out fine in a few locations , but in most it will be terrible .
Because these guys @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who ’ ve been complaining about the lockdowns since the moment they were called .
Because their “ scientists ” are , as we saw in The Only Man Who Has A Clue , utterly useless when it comes to even the most basic rules of risk assessment .
But then for a few consecutive days numbers of cases and deaths seem to go down , and there is an election coming up next year or the one after that , and off to the races we are .
As long as there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t notice these things , because everyone is busy living their own lives and fulfilling their own demands .
And then when things do go wrong , there ’ s no redundancy , no resilience , no safety nets , and eventually no nothing .
Because everyone ’ s too busy with their own lives .
We conduct our societies as if there is zero risk of a pandemic or any other disaster , because there ’ s no profit in redundancy .
It ’ s a miracle we still have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in most cases only still exist because someone has found a way to make money off of them ( taxes ) .
Still , the worst thing about all the little managers “ leading ” us into the future is undoubtedly that little managers have no vision for that future .
That ’ s why you hear “ re-open ” , re-this and re-that so much .
But there is no “ re- “ , there is no going back to “ normal ” .
And when you look at where we were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to ask why on earth we would want to go back there .
Shouldn ’ t we perhaps at least learn something from this virustime episode ?
Of course we should .
But our “ leaders ” lack the ideas and vision to learn anything .
They don ’ t go forward into the future , they go backward , fat asses first .
They owe their jobs and their power to the past , after all .
And their only “ science advisers ” , the virologists and epidemiologists , also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes from past events , and they can only model the next “ viral event ” according to guesses , hunches , and a series of old algorithms .
Some can construct a full genome of a virus within days or weeks , but still have no idea what it does .
We have the wrong people in charge at every step of the way .
Because we have no idea what risk assessment is .
Still , we ’ re all smart enough to understand that politicians and epidemiologists are the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And yes , that brings us straight back to The Only Man Who Has A Clue .
When you don ’ t know what you ’ re up against , you don ’ t just try and guess and pray for a good outcome , you go back to basics : masks , testing , distance .
Lockdowns can ’ t last forever , people are social animals .
Also , lockdowns don ’ t solve the problem , that ’ s not their goal ; they merely buy you time .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ time wisely ?
Would you say it ’ s safe now to put less distance between people , who are for all intents and purposes potential hosts for a lethal virus ?
I see a lot of claims that we know much more about the virus now , 4-6 weeks later , but I also see tons of contradictory reports , and I can only conclude we still know very little .
Indeed , even many things we thought we knew turn out not to be true .
And those happen to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you want to assess risk .
Politicians and epidemiologists could only possibly have done one thing right -and they largely did- in this process : the lockdown .
They understand what it is , and they have the tools to sell and enforce it .
But that ’ s it .
They don ’ t understand the risks involved in relaxing the lockdowns .
It ’ s not just the pressure on them to “ normalize ” their societies , it ’ s that they don ’ t understand risk , period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That in itself is likely the biggest risk we face .
And I kid you not , I was setting out to write about finance and bailouts and stuff , and thought a little intro might be helpful , and it got a bit out of hand .
Finance and bailouts “ and stuff ” , coming up , hopefully tomorrow .
Got so much to say about that too .
Sometimes it ’ s nice to just read news and opinions for a number of days without writing about it , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of “ what are these people thinking ?
” .
There are all these claims about elites and politicians and their grand schemes and plans and intentions , but so far I always veer back , along with Fat Tony , to the vastly underestimated achievements of sheer incompetence .
But by all means , prove me wrong .

by Raúl Ilargi Meijer
Joseph-Désiré Court Le Masque 1843
No, I’m still not over the fact that they all initially missed the virus when they should have seen it most of all. The reasons why must be evaluated in every single location, in governments, CDC equivalents and obviously the WHO. A main reason is that they were all focusing on their economy, not the virus, -at least somewhat- ironically damaging their economies in the process.
I’m just afraid that you’re not going to prevent the next time, the next huge and deadly miss, as long as elections are popularity contests ultimately controlled by special interests. But at the same time, we’re past that first moment, which was somewhere in November or December (31st at the latest), and the next major threats loom.
After the Big Miss came the lockdowns, and as I said in Little Managers, that’s the one thing all these politicians may actually be somewhat good at. They stink at initial detection and reaction time, they stink at forward vision, but they can get people to stay home for a bit, and sell them that in the media.
They even get praised for it. Which is understandable, since their role is to set old ladies’ minds at ease, and most people, whatever age they are, have such minds, understandable but unfortunate, because 1) we’re about to leave the lockdowns phase as well and 2) they’re sure to screw up this one as royally as the first detection moment.
It would be good if everyone by now understood why lockdowns become inevitable after, but only after, initial detection has failed and the virus has been allowed to enter a society, if you face a highly contagious and deadly -to humans- virus that you don’t know anything about, but there are plenty people today who claim the lockdowns are what does the damage.
In case there is such a virus and you miss your first -and only- chance at “Crushing the Curve” (as opposed to flattening it, which is of limited use at best), you must prevent it from jumping from host to host, which means you need to keep people apart from each other to one extent or another. Societies have understood this for 1000s of years, and we don’t?
Keep people apart until you either know more about the virus, or you have a vaccine, or people become immune to it. Well, there’s no vaccine – did you know that no vaccine for a coronavirus was ever developed?-, immunity is in a very early phase, and just about literally everything we think we know about the virus is contradicted within 24 hours or so by a different report or group of “experts”.
These are truly not things we should let politicians fresh out of popularity contests decide. But that’s the model of our societies. The various relaxations of the various lockdowns are going to be an unmitigated disaster, guaranteed. We have all the elements for such disasters. It’ll work out fine in a few locations, but in most it will be terrible.
Because these guys and gals are under pressure from people who’ve been complaining about the lockdowns since the moment they were called. Because their “scientists” are, as we saw in The Only Man Who Has A Clue, utterly useless when it comes to even the most basic rules of risk assessment. But then for a few consecutive days numbers of cases and deaths seem to go down, and there is an election coming up next year or the one after that, and off to the races we are.
As long as there are no urgencies or calamities, we don’t notice these things, because everyone is busy living their own lives and fulfilling their own demands. And then when things do go wrong, there’s no redundancy, no resilience, no safety nets, and eventually no nothing. Because everyone’s too busy with their own lives.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We conduct our societies as if there is zero risk of a pandemic or any other disaster, because there’s no profit in redundancy. It’s a miracle we still have fire departments and hospitals, and those in most cases only still exist because someone has found a way to make money off of them (taxes).
Still, the worst thing about all the little managers “leading” us into the future is undoubtedly that little managers have no vision for that future. That’s why you hear “re-open”, re-this and re-that so much. But there is no “re-“, there is no going back to “normal”. And when you look at where we were pre-corona, you’d be mad not to ask why on earth we would want to go back there.
Shouldn’t we perhaps at least learn something from this virustime episode? Of course we should. But our “leaders” lack the ideas and vision to learn anything. They don’t go forward into the future, they go backward, fat asses first. They owe their jobs and their power to the past, after all.
And their only “science advisers”, the virologists and epidemiologists, also only look backwards, since their knowledge comes from past events, and they can only model the next “viral event” according to guesses, hunches, and a series of old algorithms. Some can construct a full genome of a virus within days or weeks, but still have no idea what it does.
We have the wrong people in charge at every step of the way. Because we have no idea what risk assessment is. Still, we’re all smart enough to understand that politicians and epidemiologists are the last people we would want to do that. And yes, that brings us straight back to The Only Man Who Has A Clue. When you don’t know what you’re up against, you don’t just try and guess and pray for a good outcome, you go back to basics: masks, testing, distance.
Lockdowns can’t last forever, people are social animals. Also, lockdowns don’t solve the problem, that’s not their goal; they merely buy you time. Would you say we have used that time wisely? Would you say it’s safe now to put less distance between people, who are for all intents and purposes potential hosts for a lethal virus?
I see a lot of claims that we know much more about the virus now, 4-6 weeks later, but I also see tons of contradictory reports, and I can only conclude we still know very little. Indeed, even many things we thought we knew turn out not to be true. And those happen to be the kinds of things that are essential if you want to assess risk.
Politicians and epidemiologists could only possibly have done one thing right -and they largely did- in this process: the lockdown. They understand what it is, and they have the tools to sell and enforce it. But that’s it. They don’t understand the risks involved in relaxing the lockdowns. It’s not just the pressure on them to “normalize” their societies, it’s that they don’t understand risk, period -but think and claim they do-.
That in itself is likely the biggest risk we face.
And I kid you not, I was setting out to write about finance and bailouts and stuff, and thought a little intro might be helpful, and it got a bit out of hand. Finance and bailouts “and stuff”, coming up, hopefully tomorrow. Got so much to say about that too. Sometimes it’s nice to just read news and opinions for a number of days without writing about it, but for me there’s always a lot of “what are these people thinking?”.
There are all these claims about elites and politicians and their grand schemes and plans and intentions, but so far I always veer back, along with Fat Tony, to the vastly underestimated achievements of sheer incompetence. But by all means, prove me wrong.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-02--“Sell In May” Might Be A Good Risk Strategy This Year

Could “ Sell In May ” be a good risk strategy this year ?
Maybe , considering we asked a simple question last week : “ Is the bear market rally over ?
” Just as we have seen in previous “ bear market ” bounces , the gains for April were quite stunning with stocks putting in the best one-month advance since 1974 .
These exceedingly large bounces usually occur during bear markets .
Unfortunately , in many cases , the majority of those big one-month advances are followed by negative returns .
Timing , as they say , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signal has not crossed into negative territory yet but seems to be heading in that direction .
It won ’ t take but a couple of more days of falling , or stagnating markets , to trigger that signal .
While not every “ summer period ” is negative , the long-term history of investing during the summer months is not stellar .
However , the adage “ Sell in May ” may be more appropriate this year given the state of the actual economy , earnings risk , and a potential revaluation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak summer period has risen markedly .
( This is particularly the case as we head into the Presidential election and trade tensions with China are heating up . )
“ The massive rally has surely been impressive and a welcome change from the carnage we experienced in February and March .
April 2020 has been the best month since January 1987 for DJIA and S & P 500 , and the best April since 1938 .
But April ’ s huge move was not enough to put the Best Six Months ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that concerns us .
The DJIA was down 10.0 % for this Best Six Months period , which ended today , and the S & P 500 lost 4.1 % .
When the market is down during the “ Best Six Months , ” it ’ s an indication that there are more powerful forces than seasonality at work , and when the bullish season is over , those forces may really have their say.
” “ Following the first back-to-back down Best Six Months since 1973-1974 , the market hit a secular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The market made a similar secular bear market bottom in August 1982 , which began in 1966 .
Of course , that bottom came after the infamous 1980s double-dip recession .
Our concern here is that this time around , we ’ ve only just begun.
” The Risk Starts In May We can ’ t disagree with that statement .
While there are many hoping that the worst of the economic data is now behind us , I highly suspect it isn ’ t .
As noted in this week ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % decline in GDP in the first quarter was stunning .
Importantly , that reading only encapsulated the impact of the economic “ shutdown ” in that last two weeks of the quarter .
Such suggests , considering the entire month of April ( 1/3rd of the quarter ) was a wash , the numbers will worse next quarter.
” “ There is a negative feedback loop between employment and consumption .
As unemployment rises , consumption falls due to a lack of income .
Since businesses operate based on demand for goods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fixed investment , and employment is high.
” “ Despite the reopening of the economy , businesses will not immediately return to full operational activity , until consumption returns to more normal levels .
Such a recovery is likely going to frustrate policy-makers and the Fed.
” It isn ’ t just the economic data that is going to be horrid over the next few months , but earnings will likely be just as bad .
Earnings can not live in isolation from the economy .
So goes earnings , so goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the markets remain incredibly overbought and extended after the run from the lows .
Previously , I discussed that markets had gone from extremely oversold , to extremely overbought during April .
This sharp advance pushed the S & P 500 back to its 61.8 % retracement level , where it failed on Friday .
While the sell-off on Friday did trigger an initial sell-signal , a further decline on Monday will trigger the primary sell-signal in the lower panel .
Such would coincide with a break below 2800 , and signal the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is currently a lot of “ bullishness ” built up in the markets , so investors will likely buy dips for now .
However , it won ’ t take long for investors to remember March and head for the exits much sooner this time .
So , be careful .
As we discussed with our RIAPro Subscribers ( 30-day Risk-Free Trial ) last week , our colleague Jeffrey Marcus made some salient comments about investor ’ s “ risky game of hope.
” “ The table shows EPS growth for U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1st quarter .
20 % of U.S. companies have reported so far.
” “ There is only one-month of Covid-19 effect in the 1st quarter .
Earnings growth from all 993 companies is -12 % , but the price reaction to bad EPS has been stellar .
The one-day price reaction to EPS on the day of release is in the lower right quadrant of the table .
As TPA has discussed in previous World Snapshots , the positive price action to negative news is a good sign .
The problem is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only one-month of the Covid-19 effect .
Importantly , this is only 20 % of stocks having weighed in ; one has to wonder why ?
The answer has to be that investors have an awful lot of hope in the power of the FED to keep the tire with a large hole inflated and as the man who taught me how to trade told me , ‘ Hope is a bad investment strategy.
’ ” What this all suggests is that “ risk ” still outweighs the potential “ reward ” of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With Friday ’ s sell-off , the risk/reward ranges remain unfavorable for the “ Sell In May ” period .
• -3.0 % to 50-dma vs. 4 % to the 61.8 % retracement .
Risk/reward equally balanced .
• -5.4 % to the 38.2 % retracement vs. 6 % to the 200-dma .
Risk/reward equally balanced .
• -13.4 % to the April 1st lows vs. 4-6 % higher .
Risk/reward out of favor .
• -21.0 % to the March 23rd low : Risk/reward extremely out of favor .
The risk of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ summer months outweighs the upside currently .
Importantly , this does NOT mean the markets can ’ t rally to all-time highs .
It is possible , just not probable , and as investors , we must weigh our outcomes .
While we are discussing “ Selling in May , ” such doesn ’ t mean we are sitting in cash .
We continue to remain long our reduced equity exposure and have been buying undervalued opportunities over the last few weeks .
However , we are also balancing that equity exposure with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of cash .
We also continue to increase our duration in our bond portfolios as we expect interest rates will head toward ZERO this summer .
As my friend Victor Adair reminded me this week : While it ’ s no guarantee , “ Sell In May ” just might be a good “ risk strategy ” to employ this year in particular .

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Biggest Rally Since 1974
Could “Sell In May” be a good risk strategy this year? Maybe, considering we asked a simple question last week: “Is the bear market rally over?”
“That’s the question we have been discussing over the last few weeks. So far, most of it has played out much as expected by turning previous ‘selling panic’ into a ‘buying rush,’ and convincing a vast majority of investors the ‘bull market is back.’”
Just as we have seen in previous “bear market” bounces, the gains for April were quite stunning with stocks putting in the best one-month advance since 1974.
These exceedingly large bounces usually occur during bear markets. Unfortunately, in many cases, the majority of those big one-month advances are followed by negative returns.
Timing, as they say, is everything.
Sell In May
My colleague, Jeffrey Hirsch from Stocktraders Almanac, recently penned:
“Despite the sell-off on the last day of April, the Best Six Months has ended on a positive note, registering the best month in decades and the best April since the Great Depression.”
Currently, the primary signal has not crossed into negative territory yet but seems to be heading in that direction. It won’t take but a couple of more days of falling, or stagnating markets, to trigger that signal.
While not every “summer period” is negative, the long-term history of investing during the summer months is not stellar.
However, the adage “Sell in May” may be more appropriate this year given the state of the actual economy, earnings risk, and a potential revaluation of markets, the odds of a weak summer period has risen markedly. (This is particularly the case as we head into the Presidential election and trade tensions with China are heating up.)
Managing The Risk
Jeff continues:
“The massive rally has surely been impressive and a welcome change from the carnage we experienced in February and March. April 2020 has been the best month since January 1987 for DJIA and S&P 500, and the best April since 1938. But April’s huge move was not enough to put the Best Six Months (November-April) in the black, and that concerns us. The DJIA was down 10.0% for this Best Six Months period, which ended today, and the S&P 500 lost 4.1%. When the market is down during the “Best Six Months,” it’s an indication that there are more powerful forces than seasonality at work, and when the bullish season is over, those forces may really have their say.” “Following the first back-to-back down Best Six Months since 1973-1974, the market hit a secular bear market low in March 2009. The market made a similar secular bear market bottom in August 1982, which began in 1966. Of course, that bottom came after the infamous 1980s double-dip recession. Our concern here is that this time around, we’ve only just begun.”
The Risk Starts In May
We can’t disagree with that statement. While there are many hoping that the worst of the economic data is now behind us, I highly suspect it isn’t. As noted in this week’s #MacroView:
“The negative 4.8% decline in GDP in the first quarter was stunning. Importantly, that reading only encapsulated the impact of the economic “shutdown” in that last two weeks of the quarter. Such suggests, considering the entire month of April (1/3rd of the quarter) was a wash, the numbers will worse next quarter.” “There is a negative feedback loop between employment and consumption. As unemployment rises, consumption falls due to a lack of income. Since businesses operate based on demand for goods and services, the correlation between PCE, fixed investment, and employment is high.” “Despite the reopening of the economy, businesses will not immediately return to full operational activity, until consumption returns to more normal levels. Such a recovery is likely going to frustrate policy-makers and the Fed.”
It isn’t just the economic data that is going to be horrid over the next few months, but earnings will likely be just as bad.
Earnings can not live in isolation from the economy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
So goes earnings, so goes the market.
“Sell In May” Starts With Overbought Risk
In the short-term, the markets remain incredibly overbought and extended after the run from the lows.
Previously, I discussed that markets had gone from extremely oversold, to extremely overbought during April. This sharp advance pushed the S&P 500 back to its 61.8% retracement level, where it failed on Friday.
While the sell-off on Friday did trigger an initial sell-signal, a further decline on Monday will trigger the primary sell-signal in the lower panel. Such would coincide with a break below 2800, and signal the start of a deeper corrective process.
There is currently a lot of “bullishness” built up in the markets, so investors will likely buy dips for now. However, it won’t take long for investors to remember March and head for the exits much sooner this time. So, be careful.
Reversions happen fast.
A Risky Game Of Hope
As we discussed with our RIAPro Subscribers (30-day Risk-Free Trial) last week, our colleague Jeffrey Marcus made some salient comments about investor’s “risky game of hope.”
“The table shows EPS growth for U.S. companies that have so far reported the 1st quarter. 20% of U.S. companies have reported so far.” “There is only one-month of Covid-19 effect in the 1st quarter. Earnings growth from all 993 companies is -12%, but the price reaction to bad EPS has been stellar. The one-day price reaction to EPS on the day of release is in the lower right quadrant of the table. As TPA has discussed in previous World Snapshots, the positive price action to negative news is a good sign. The problem is that EPS growth is down 12% with only one-month of the Covid-19 effect. Importantly, this is only 20% of stocks having weighed in; one has to wonder why? The answer has to be that investors have an awful lot of hope in the power of the FED to keep the tire with a large hole inflated and as the man who taught me how to trade told me, ‘Hope is a bad investment strategy.’”
“Sell In May” Risk Outweighs Reward
What this all suggests is that “risk” still outweighs the potential “reward” of being aggressively invested in the markets.
With Friday’s sell-off, the risk/reward ranges remain unfavorable for the “Sell In May” period.
-3.0% to 50-dma vs. 4% to the 61.8% retracement. Risk/reward equally balanced.
Risk/reward equally balanced. -5.4% to the 38.2% retracement vs. 6% to the 200-dma. Risk/reward equally balanced.
Risk/reward equally balanced. -13.4% to the April 1st lows vs. 4-6% higher. Risk/reward out of favor.
Risk/reward out of favor. -21.0% to the March 23rd low: Risk/reward extremely out of favor.
The risk of a downside retracement as we head into summer months outweighs the upside currently. Importantly, this does NOT mean the markets can’t rally to all-time highs. It is possible, just not probable, and as investors, we must weigh our outcomes.
While we are discussing “Selling in May,” such doesn’t mean we are sitting in cash. We continue to remain long our reduced equity exposure and have been buying undervalued opportunities over the last few weeks. However, we are also balancing that equity exposure with offsetting hedges and a larger than average level of cash. We also continue to increase our duration in our bond portfolios as we expect interest rates will head toward ZERO this summer.
As my friend Victor Adair reminded me this week:
“Investors tend to buy the most at the top and the least at the bottom.” – Bob Farrell.
While it’s no guarantee, “Sell In May” just might be a good “risk strategy” to employ this year in particular.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-02--Alex Newman: The federal government cannot bail everybody out … Max Keiser: Anatomy of a currency co

Matt Taibbi : Expect tens of billions of dollars of fraud in these bailouts … Saagar Enjeti : Biden will @ @ @ @ @ suspects in charge of the economy … Rick Ackerman – We have a deflationary abyss @ @ @ @ @ : The federal government can not bail everybody out … Max Keiser : Anatomy of @ @ @ @ @ Long : Bubbles are bursting everywhere …

BY JOHN RUBINO
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Matt Taibbi: Expect tens of billions of dollars of fraud in these bailouts … Saagar Enjeti: Biden will put the usual Wall Street suspects in charge of the economy … Rick Ackerman – We have a deflationary abyss to cross … Alex Newman: The federal government cannot bail everybody out … Max Keiser: Anatomy of a currency collapse … Gordon Long: Bubbles are bursting everywhere …


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-02--Fiercest Economic Collapse in History is Best Month for Stock Market

It was the best of times , it was the worst of times .
April closed as the best month for the US stock market since the V-shaped recovery that followed the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987 .
April also delivered the deepest , broadest economic collapse of any month in history .
The economic collapse was simultaneously global .
What is written here about the US can pretty well be said for all nations in the world .
The collapse crushed jobs , personal income , consumer spending , consumer sentiment , car sales , and general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the history of the nation .
Some of those sharpest declines happened in March , but April relentlessly drove to to greater depths .
But stocks rose .
It stomped the housing market into the dust and pushed oil prices deeper down the wells of Texas than anyone ever imagined was possible .
It also set up the world for potentially serious food shortages in the summer , as farming , processing and delivery all collapsed due to lack of labor under the intense social restrictions of the coronacrisis — the first global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And stocks still rose .
Perhaps this should call it Black April , though March was worse in many ways .
It ’ s just that the economic collapse kept on getting deeper in April .
Yet , stocks had their best month in more than thirty years .
That ’ s incongruity on a massive scale — the greatest economic denial in history .
The first-quarter decline in GDP came in at 5 % , but the monthly decline in April was far worse .
Though we don ’ t have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the first quarter was , to the best everyone knew , virus-free in the United States .
Viral lockdown was not even a thought .
April alone , probably brought GDP down more than another 5 % .
Still , stocks rose .
Many are calling the present economic collapse the Second Great Depression .
And yet stocks continued to rise .
Even one of the richest people on the planet literally laughs off the silly notion that we are returning to normal anytime soon ( and he ’ s a villainaire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the stock market continued too rise .
It rose against the following onslaught of the worst crash-dives into economic collapse in nearly a century .
Some of these deformations in the economy are the deepest rifts in US history : “ Over 30 Million Americans Have Lost Their Jobs In The Last Six Weeks ” According to the BEA , disposable income and personal spending fell off a cliff : Corresponding with that , gross domestic product , the common official gauge of the entire economy ( whether it should be or not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chicago Fed ’ s economic index took a trip into the abyss : In light of all of that , it ’ s not surprising that consumer sentiment , the only thing carrying the economy along during the last year , also collapsed : Anything below 100 indicates sentiment is leaning negative .
Consumers won ’ t have anything to spend their falling money on anyway due to shortages .
Of course , shortages typically mean price inflation , so they will be spending as much money for less of what they want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While the National Review titled their story more sedately , the fact remains that a collapse in food supplies is becoming a concern under the coronavirus lockdown .
“ Analysts say April will be the worst auto sales month in at least 30 years due to the coronavirus pandemic “ That paired up nicely with this : As go car sales , so eventually go repossessions of cars recently sold .
“ The ‘ Great Repression ’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame , economist says “ Stocks shrugged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eurpean banks are worse off than the US .
“ It won ’ t affect us .
It ’ ll never happen here.
” Yet , another banking collapse may not be that far off either .
Remember the last time we heard headlines like : After a nice rise finally at the start of the year , the housing collapse looked like this : That pretty well crashed into the ground .
Banks and mainstream media forewarn of economic collapse into another Great Depression We ’ re falling into our basement in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major central banks and mainstream media are joining in the Depression chorus to sing of how deep this going : The following quotes are collected from an article titled “ Reopen the Economy While Protecting Those Truly at Risk or Face Another Great Depression.
” Powerful words from many powerful players , who don ’ t hesitate to go straight from the R-word to “ great depression.
” But the stock market still put in its best performance since the 80 ’ s .
And oil , of course , priced negative for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world history .
No one ever thought empty barrels of crude oil would be worth more than full ones .
Even Jerome Powell , who always tries to talk the market up , said “ We ’ ll see economic data in Q2 that ’ s ‘ worse than any data we ’ ve seen ’ .
“ But stocks continued to rise anyway .
The market went up , even though Powell warned of economic catastrophe , because he also promised to throw lots of gasoline on it : Like Icarus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may not melt until they get there .
We all know the reason for the rise is that the Federal Reserve and the US government are punching in massive amounts of QE , loans , stimulus of all kinds to avert a total economic collapse .
Still , that did not help the economy , which took the biggest cliff dive in history anyway , but it drove stocks up .
What that really means is that the Fed wants to do all it can in order to inflate stock values far above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the stock exchanges , rather than let the market reflect what companies are really worth .
As company values crash in terms of price-to-sales ratios or revenue or any business metric you want to apply , the Fed wants to make sure that stock prices are never true valuations again .
That means we could soon have the scenario where dead shell corporations trade as trillion-dollar chips in the Wall-Street casinos .
Ask yourself one common-sense question : if it doesn ’ t matter for stock-trading purposes whether or not corporations have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shutdown , does it even matter if they actually exist ?
Does the stock market keep flying or crash ?
I still believe reality always wins in the end , so this is a bear-market rally that will end in great misery .
Incredible as the present rally is , it is perfectly in keeping with every major market crash in history .
The pattern of great crashes always goes like this : After years of climbing , there ’ s a sudden crash of 20 % or more followed by a rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high , and then reality kicks back in with the worst yet to come .
Here , for example , is the great crash of 1929 and the stock market that followed during the ensuing Great Depression : And here is the Dow 2020 crash : About halfway back .
The fact that the pattern matches all previous crashes , doesn ’ t prove history will repeat itself with an even greater downturn now , as it has done in other major events .
However , it does forewarn one not to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The market crashed in one month , so now it rallied halfway in a month .
It the perfect counterpart if its going to match up to other periods of deep economic collapse..
Although the stock market just experienced its best month in decades , the rally in 1929 was the best in decades , too .
Even the Fed finally admits it may be coming up against the Law of Diminishing returns , which I have said for years will ultimately be the undoing of the Fed ’ s unsustainable recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If the only way you can keep the addicted market rising is to keep pushing QE , then you ’ re destined to gradually get weaker results and need more QE until eventually the patient needs such high doses to get a buzz that he gets fried from toxic overload .
Clearly , even with all the Fed ’ s pushing its dope and all the government ’ s stimulants — far greater in measure than any time in history — the rally now appears to be stalling out … at just the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the first major leg down in stock crash .
And Friday it got some seriously dangerous denial-braking news .
Amazon reported that it would have no profits in the present quarter .
As the coronacrisis took down company after company , strung-out investors continued to believe in the ability of the top-five stocks to keep delivering new highs even in this somewhat apocalyptic world .
Amazon ’ s return to earth , as a biggest of all tech stocks , means the other tech stocks that were delivering trips to the moon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronacrisis , too .
There is reason now for that last bastion of unreality to start to crumble so that investors start to see reality again .
The hallucination of invincibility is failing .
Even though I believe diminishing returns are reaching their ultimate stage , the market ’ s summit of rarified irrationality , coupled with extreme dope of the infinite supplier could just blow the market ’ s mind in a fatal high .
The Fed is run by a Pusher Powell , who just assured the stock market , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ to the absolute limit of [ the Fed ’ s ] powers … to get through this thing.
” That ’ s dope !
It brings back to mind Powell ’ s former counterpart at the European Central Bank who , at a time that now feels long ago in a different world , said the ECB would “ do whatever it takes.
” We know Fed meds will keep shooting into the market ’ s veins in order to keep pushing stock values into the sun ’ s corona if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed has said it will do everything it can to send the market up that astral path to its most mind-blowing experience .
That means , even if US businesses burn out in the withering flames of the coronavirus , they may continue to exist in name only on the far off displays of US stock exchanges , carrying the greatest values they ’ ve ever had … as nothing but chips in a casino .
That still won ’ t save the economy , but it is the weird ground zero for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the Fed manages to keep pushing stock values up on near-infinite streams of money .
In that paradoxical sphere of existence , the economy collapses under a coronavirus siege that keeps taking businesses down , while their stocks ascend to an unearned zenith .
I , however , am staying with my belief that reality prevails .
Diminishing Returns return to the throne , and will soon rule the day .
Some unlikely voices are saying we are heading into another Great Depression v recession .
That ’ s the kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ torn for how deep to dig into our vocabulary and our past to define these times .
In these worst of times , I think a bear-market rally that befits the best of times has likely topped out .
The Fed ’ s recovery is doomed to fall back to an earth that is plunging deep into recession , and the stock market bulls are doomed to collapse into a Fed-created hell .
The bull trap has been set , and Amazon tripped the trigger just by showing reality rules Amazon , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t because of a Fed that some believe to be omnipotent in money-creating power , I don ’ t want to live in that endless hallucination .

by David Haggith
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. April closed as the best month for the US stock market since the V-shaped recovery that followed the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987. April also delivered the deepest, broadest economic collapse of any month in history.
The economic collapse was simultaneously global. What is written here about the US can pretty well be said for all nations in the world. The collapse crushed jobs, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment, car sales, and general economic activity more than any month in the history of the nation. Some of those sharpest declines happened in March, but April relentlessly drove to to greater depths. But stocks rose.
It stomped the housing market into the dust and pushed oil prices deeper down the wells of Texas than anyone ever imagined was possible. It also set up the world for potentially serious food shortages in the summer, as farming, processing and delivery all collapsed due to lack of labor under the intense social restrictions of the coronacrisis — the first global quarantine in the history of the world. And stocks still rose.
Perhaps this should call it Black April, though March was worse in many ways. It’s just that the economic collapse kept on getting deeper in April. Yet, stocks had their best month in more than thirty years. That’s incongruity on a massive scale — the greatest economic denial in history.
The first-quarter decline in GDP came in at 5%, but the monthly decline in April was far worse. Though we don’t have the specifics, we know that half of the first quarter was, to the best everyone knew, virus-free in the United States. Viral lockdown was not even a thought. April alone, probably brought GDP down more than another 5%. Still, stocks rose.
Many are calling the present economic collapse the Second Great Depression.
Says Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group,
We’re facing the worst economic recession of our lifetimes…. If your saying the markets actually think its only going to be three months, I hope they don’t think that! It’s a very long time before we get back to normal…. Social distancing is clearly going on for months and months…. You’re going to see a lot more inequality … more political polarization and anti-establishment sentiment…. That’s going to disenfranchise a lot more people. It’ll lead to more political polarization…. The potential for an outright cold war between the United States and China is getting a lot larger…. The worst economic cataclysm of our lifetimes…. Coronavirus … speeds up a lot of things that were already happening. It takes ten years and compresses them into one and half…. The Greek crisis … is going to be driven forward much more quickly now…. I worry about … the global middle class … now going back into poverty…. Humanity is not going to do better coming out of this crisis…. There is no country in the world that you’re going to be able to go back in three to five years time and say, “We came out better because of that coronavirus crisis.”
And yet stocks continued to rise.
Even one of the richest people on the planet literally laughs off the silly notion that we are returning to normal anytime soon (and he’s a villainaire turned global virus guru)
Best case scenario … If we can figure out how to do K-12 in the fall, that would be good. I even even think that, if we’re creative about it and things have gone well, we’ll be able to [open] college [in the fall]…. How many schools are opening up? We won’t really know enough until pretty close to the start…. The economy is not going to be anything like it was…. You do have an economy that is going to be operating at a lower level…. There’s no doubt that’ll be the case for years to come…. That should affect overall [corporate] valuation. You know, there aren’t that many great investments…. I find it a little surprising where the market is.
Yet, the stock market continued too rise. It rose against the following onslaught of the worst crash-dives into economic collapse in nearly a century. Some of these deformations in the economy are the deepest rifts in US history:
Headline economic collapse data for March and April
“Over 30 Million Americans Have Lost Their Jobs In The Last Six Weeks”
That’s over 12 times the prior worst five-week period in the last 50-plus years … and … the highest level of continuing claims ever.
According to the BEA, disposable income and personal spending fell off a cliff:
Corresponding with that, gross domestic product, the common official gauge of the entire economy (whether it should be or not), plummeted:
Since GDP is how we measure the economy, a massive collapse in GDP IS an economic collapse.
Similarly, the Chicago Fed’s economic index took a trip into the abyss:
In light of all of that, it’s not surprising that consumer sentiment, the only thing carrying the economy along during the last year, also collapsed:
All gauges of the economy are showing collapse.
Anything below 100 indicates sentiment is leaning negative.
Consumers won’t have anything to spend their falling money on anyway due to shortages. Of course, shortages typically mean price inflation, so they will be spending as much money for less of what they want. Drudge ran the following headline:
“Beef Shortages Alarm White House“
While the National Review titled their story more sedately, the fact remains that a collapse in food supplies is becoming a concern under the coronavirus lockdown.
Carmageddon or the Carpocalypse continues:
“Analysts say April will be the worst auto sales month in at least 30 years due to the coronavirus pandemic“
That paired up nicely with this:
“Wave Of Repos Imminent As Subprime Auto-Buyers Miss Payments“
As go car sales, so eventually go repossessions of cars recently sold.
As unemployment soars, borrowers are putting off payments…. Ally Financial Inc. said on Monday that about 25% of its auto-loan customers have taken advantage of its payment-deferral program….
Economist David Rosenberg says,
“The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist says“
[Base case:] 30% contraction in real gross domestic product in the second quarter, negative year-over-year consumer price growth for 5 quarters, and an unemployment rate of 14.2% by the end of 2020, averaging 13% throughout 2021.
But stocks continued rising.
“Biggest European Banks Brace For Default Tsunami As Loan Losses Soar“
Stocks shrugged that one off because we all know Eurpean banks are worse off than the US. “It won’t affect us. It’ll never happen here.”
Yet, another banking collapse may not be that far off either. Remember the last time we heard headlines like:
“Housing To Take A Hit“
Home purchases in March had their biggest decline since November 2015. Some say a crash is inevitable at this point.
After a nice rise finally at the start of the year, the housing collapse looked like this:
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Housing sales collapse.
That pretty well crashed into the ground.
Banks and mainstream media forewarn of economic collapse into another Great Depression
Planned demolition of the global economy causes greater economic collapse in our lifetimes.
We’re falling into our basement in our own self-designed demolition. Even some major central banks and mainstream media are joining in the Depression chorus to sing of how deep this going: The following quotes are collected from an article titled “Reopen the Economy While Protecting Those Truly at Risk or Face Another Great Depression.”
“We are experiencing an economic contraction that is faster and deeper than anything we have seen in the past century, or possibly several centuries,” Bank of England interest-rate setter Jan Vlieghe said.
The coronavirus collapse has the ingredients to surpass the disaster of the 1930s…. Let’s hope this depression won’t last a decade, but an unprecedented slump followed by years of pain seems inevitable, said a Bloomberg commentary.
From economist Nouriel Roubini: “The best economic outcome that anyone can hope for is a recession deeper than that following the 2008 financial crisis. But given the flailing policy response so far, the chances of a far worse outcome are increasing by the day.”
“Forget recession, this is a depression,” says the left wing Guardian.
The coronavirus pandemic will push the global economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression…, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
“The expectation of market participants is that we’re in the Great Depression and that in a sense, the news can’t get much worse,” said BNY Mellon chief strategist Alicia Levine.
“At this point it would take a miracle to keep this recession from turning into the Great Depression II,” says Chris Rupkey, of Mitsubishi’s economic unit.
Powerful words from many powerful players, who don’t hesitate to go straight from the R-word to “great depression.”
But the stock market still put in its best performance since the 80’s.
And oil, of course, priced negative for what was surely the first time in world history. No one ever thought empty barrels of crude oil would be worth more than full ones.
Even Jerome Powell, who always tries to talk the market up, said “We’ll see economic data in Q2 that’s ‘worse than any data we’ve seen’.“
But stocks continued to rise anyway.
Federal Reserve flies stocks into the sun
The market went up, even though Powell warned of economic catastrophe, because he also promised to throw lots of gasoline on it:
We can do what we can do, and we will do it to the absolute limit of those powers. We’ll keep at it … to get through this thing. — Jerome Powell (from the video below)
Like Icarus, stocks are flying to the sun and may not melt until they get there.
We all know the reason for the rise is that the Federal Reserve and the US government are punching in massive amounts of QE, loans, stimulus of all kinds to avert a total economic collapse. Still, that did not help the economy, which took the biggest cliff dive in history anyway, but it drove stocks up.
What that really means is that the Fed wants to do all it can in order to inflate stock values far above the true economic value of any company on the stock exchanges, rather than let the market reflect what companies are really worth. As company values crash in terms of price-to-sales ratios or revenue or any business metric you want to apply, the Fed wants to make sure that stock prices are never true valuations again.
That means we could soon have the scenario where dead shell corporations trade as trillion-dollar chips in the Wall-Street casinos. Ask yourself one common-sense question: if it doesn’t matter for stock-trading purposes whether or not corporations have any actual business income under the coronavirus shutdown, does it even matter if they actually exist?
Does the stock market keep flying or crash?
I still believe reality always wins in the end, so this is a bear-market rally that will end in great misery. Incredible as the present rally is, it is perfectly in keeping with every major market crash in history. The pattern of great crashes always goes like this:
After years of climbing, there’s a sudden crash of 20% or more followed by a rally about halfway back to there last record high, and then reality kicks back in with the worst yet to come.
Here, for example, is the great crash of 1929 and the stock market that followed during the ensuing Great Depression:
And here is the Dow 2020 crash:
About halfway back. The fact that the pattern matches all previous crashes, doesn’t prove history will repeat itself with an even greater downturn now, as it has done in other major events. However, it does forewarn one not to make too much of an extremely euphoric rally. The market crashed in one month, so now it rallied halfway in a month. It the perfect counterpart if its going to match up to other periods of deep economic collapse..
Although the stock market just experienced its best month in decades, the rally in 1929 was the best in decades, too.
Even the Fed finally admits it may be coming up against the Law of Diminishing returns, which I have said for years will ultimately be the undoing of the Fed’s unsustainable recovery efforts:
Even Powell’s deputy commander — Vice Chairman Richard Clarida — recognizes the limits: “The law of diminishing returns is a very powerful force in economics, and so we have to be concerned that it may also apply to quantitative easing.” Daily Reckoning
Of course it does.
The Fed is on a trip to escape Earth’s gravity.
The Federal Reserve’s electric kool-aid acid trip
If the only way you can keep the addicted market rising is to keep pushing QE, then you’re destined to gradually get weaker results and need more QE until eventually the patient needs such high doses to get a buzz that he gets fried from toxic overload.
Clearly, even with all the Fed’s pushing its dope and all the government’s stimulants — far greater in measure than any time in history — the rally now appears to be stalling out … at just the same level other bull traps have stalled after the first major leg down in stock crash.
And Friday it got some seriously dangerous denial-braking news. Amazon reported that it would have no profits in the present quarter. As the coronacrisis took down company after company, strung-out investors continued to believe in the ability of the top-five stocks to keep delivering new highs even in this somewhat apocalyptic world.
Amazon’s return to earth, as a biggest of all tech stocks, means the other tech stocks that were delivering trips to the moon can fail under the harsh reality of the coronacrisis, too. There is reason now for that last bastion of unreality to start to crumble so that investors start to see reality again. The hallucination of invincibility is failing.
Even though I believe diminishing returns are reaching their ultimate stage, the market’s summit of rarified irrationality, coupled with extreme dope of the infinite supplier could just blow the market’s mind in a fatal high. The Fed is run by a Pusher Powell, who just assured the stock market, similar he will deliver everything he can “to the absolute limit of [the Fed’s] powers … to get through this thing.” That’s dope!
It brings back to mind Powell’s former counterpart at the European Central Bank who, at a time that now feels long ago in a different world, said the ECB would “do whatever it takes.” We know Fed meds will keep shooting into the market’s veins in order to keep pushing stock values into the sun’s corona if the Fed can make that happen.
The Fed has said it will do everything it can to send the market up that astral path to its most mind-blowing experience. That means, even if US businesses burn out in the withering flames of the coronavirus, they may continue to exist in name only on the far off displays of US stock exchanges, carrying the greatest values they’ve ever had … as nothing but chips in a casino.
That still won’t save the economy, but it is the weird ground zero for the Fed’s current rocket ride if the Fed manages to keep pushing stock values up on near-infinite streams of money. In that paradoxical sphere of existence, the economy collapses under a coronavirus siege that keeps taking businesses down, while their stocks ascend to an unearned zenith.
I, however, am staying with my belief that reality prevails. Diminishing Returns return to the throne, and will soon rule the day. Some unlikely voices are saying we are heading into another Great Depression v recession. That’s the kind of reality we are facing where people are torn for how deep to dig into our vocabulary and our past to define these times.
In these worst of times, I think a bear-market rally that befits the best of times has likely topped out. The Fed’s recovery is doomed to fall back to an earth that is plunging deep into recession, and the stock market bulls are doomed to collapse into a Fed-created hell. The bull trap has been set, and Amazon tripped the trigger just by showing reality rules Amazon, too.
Reality rules; but if it doesn’t because of a Fed that some believe to be omnipotent in money-creating power, I don’t want to live in that endless hallucination.
The Fed’s rocket ride is a trip into a black hole of incongruities | Source: NASA/Public Domain


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--“In a solvency crisis, companies can’t survive no matter how much they can borrow: they need more re

“In a solvency crisis, companies can’t survive no matter how much they can borrow: they need more revenue. The Fed can’t solve that.” —Greg Ip,  @WSJ

Is the economy facing a liquidity crisis , or a solvency crisis ?
The distinction will determine how important the @ @ @ @ @ the economy to health .
In a liquidity crisis , otherwise healthy firms collapse because @ @ @ @ @ credit .
The Fed can resolve such a crisis because it can print and lend @ @ @ @ @ In a solvency crisis , companies can ’ t survive no matter how much they @ @ @ @ @ more revenue .
The Fed can ’ t solve that .

Is the economy facing a liquidity crisis, or a solvency crisis? The distinction will determine how important the Federal Reserve is to returning the economy to health.
In a liquidity crisis, otherwise healthy firms collapse because they can’t access credit. The Fed can resolve such a crisis because it can print and lend unlimited amounts of money. In a solvency crisis, companies can’t survive no matter how much they can borrow: they need more revenue. The Fed can’t solve that.
…


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--Hillary ready to swoop in ‘as Biden stumbles’

Joe Biden ’ s evasive answers after he was credibly accused of sexual assault by a former staffer raises the @ @ @ @ @ the former Vice President at the top of the Democratic ticket , according to Sky @ @ @ @ @ The former Vice President Biden has been accused of assaulting former employee Tara Reade in @ @ @ @ @ his senate office , a claim he flatly denies .
“ They have a candidate @ @ @ @ @ sexual assault and who seems to be stonewalling the investigation .
“ I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ to imagine the Democrats sticking to Biden all the way to November rather than playing @ @ @ @ @ someone else more electable in .
And for over a year now on this problem @ @ @ @ @ this entire mess of Democratic process Hillary Clinton has been sitting on the sidelines looking @ @ @ @ @ her loss in 2016 .
”

Joe Biden’s evasive answers after he was credibly accused of sexual assault by a former staffer raises the prospect Hillary Clinton will replace the former Vice President at the top of the Democratic ticket, according to Sky News host James Morrow.
The former Vice President Biden has been accused of assaulting former employee Tara Reade in 1993 when she worked in his senate office, a claim he flatly denies.
Mr Morrow said Vice President Biden’s recent struggles puts the Democrats “with a naughty problem.”
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“They have a candidate who stands credibly accused of sexual assault and who seems to be stonewalling the investigation.
“I’m finding it harder and harder to imagine the Democrats sticking to Biden all the way to November rather than playing with the rules to swap someone else more electable in.
And for over a year now on this problem I have been saying throughout this entire mess of Democratic process Hillary Clinton has been sitting on the sidelines looking for the opportunity to avenge her loss in 2016.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--FL Farmers Selling Directly to Consumers–We all MUST Do This Now!

Funny .
Just finished writing up a Direct Trade resolution for our local county and this article pops into view .
There is no doubt at all that a food shortage is going to hit very soon .
We have to get in front of this and thwart the agenda .
The lock down has been bad enough , let ’ s take back our right to eat food grown by people in our own area .
ASAP .
Last month , Florida farmers let countless tons of produce rot in their fields after the restaurants , theme parks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of year were suddenly closed due to nationwide quarantines .
This month , they are changing their business model , selling directly to the consumers who are doing a whole lot more home-cooking these days .
Looks like Thomas Massie is trying to get our small farms able to sell their cattle too .
Farmers are going broke and shelves are going empty .
Instead of just granting immunity from ( American ! )
employee lawsuits to foreign owned companies , why not put America first ?
Here ’ s what the bipartisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday , May 23 , 2019 Laura Lington , 202-225-3465 WASHINGTON , D.C.—Today , two cattle-raising lawmakers , Representative Thomas Massie ( R-KY ) and Representative Chellie Pingree ( D-ME ) re-introduced the PRIME ( Processing Revival and Intrastate Meat Exemption ) Act to make it easier for small farms and ranches to serve consumers .
The PRIME Act ( H.R .
2859/S .
1620 ) would give individual states freedom to permit intrastate distribution of custom-slaughtered meat such as beef , pork , or lamb to consumers , restaurants , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stores .
“ Consumers want to know where their food comes from , what it contains , and how it ’ s processed .
Yet , federal inspection requirements make it difficult to purchase food from trusted , local farmers , ” said Rep. Massie , who owns 50 head of cattle .
“ It is time to open our markets to give producers the freedom to succeed and consumers the freedom to choose.
” “ In order for local farms to compete , they need scale-appropriate regulations .
It ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maine to drive hours to get to a USDA-inspected processing facility and turn a profit , ” said Rep. Pingree , who has been an organic livestock farmer for nearly 40 years .
“ The PRIME Act will help change federal regulations to make it easier to process meat locally—helping farmers scale up and give consumers what they so clearly want.
” Current law exempts custom slaughter of animals from federal inspection regulations , but only if the meat is slaughtered for personal , household , guest , and employee use ( 21 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
This means that in order to sell individual cuts of locally-raised meats to consumers , farmers and ranchers must first send their animals to one of a limited number of USDA-inspected slaughterhouses .
These slaughterhouses are sometimes hundreds of miles away , which adds substantial transportation cost , and also increases the chance that meat raised locally will be co-mingled with industrially-produced meat .
The PRIME Act would expand the current custom exemption and allow small farms , ranches , and slaughterhouses to thrive .
Massie , a rancher , owns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ farm in northeast Kentucky .
Pingree raises grass-fed beef and chickens on her island farm in North Haven , Maine .
Original co-sponsors of the PRIME Act include Representatives Jared Huffman ( D-CA ) , John Garamendi ( D-CA ) , Elise Stefanik ( R-NY ) , Scott Perry ( R-PA ) , Justin Amash ( R-MI ) , Mark Meadows ( R-NC ) , Andy Biggs ( R-AZ ) , Jeff Duncan ( R-SC ) , Steve King ( R-IA ) , and Mark Green ( R-TN ) .

Funny. Just finished writing up a Direct Trade resolution for our local county and this article pops into view.
There is no doubt at all that a food shortage is going to hit very soon. We have to get in front of this and thwart the agenda. The lock down has been bad enough, let’s take back our right to eat food grown by people in our own area. ASAP.
Very short article, small excerpt:
Last month, Florida farmers let countless tons of produce rot in their fields after the restaurants, theme parks and cruise lines they normally serve this time of year were suddenly closed due to nationwide quarantines.
This month, they are changing their business model, selling directly to the consumers who are doing a whole lot more home-cooking these days.
returntonow.net/2020/05/01/florida-farmers-sell-directly-to-consumers-to-avoid-produce-dumps/
Looks like Thomas Massie is trying to get our small farms able to sell their cattle too.
Farmers are going broke and shelves are going empty. Instead of just granting immunity from (American!) employee lawsuits to foreign owned companies, why not put America first? Here’s what the bipartisan bicameral PRIME Act would do:t.co/GpZEwbhkKn — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) May 3, 2020
Farmers are going broke and shelves are going empty. Instead of just granting immunity from (American!) employee lawsuits to foreign owned companies, why not put America first? Here’s what the bipartisan bicameral PRIME Act would do:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, May 23, 2019
Laura Lington, 202-225-3465
WASHINGTON, D.C.—Today, two cattle-raising lawmakers, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Representative Chellie Pingree (D-ME) re-introduced the PRIME (Processing Revival and Intrastate Meat Exemption) Act to make it easier for small farms and ranches to serve consumers. The PRIME Act (H.R. 2859/S. 1620) would give individual states freedom to permit intrastate distribution of custom-slaughtered meat such as beef, pork, or lamb to consumers, restaurants, hotels, boarding houses, and grocery stores.
“Consumers want to know where their food comes from, what it contains, and how it’s processed. Yet, federal inspection requirements make it difficult to purchase food from trusted, local farmers,” said Rep. Massie, who owns 50 head of cattle. “It is time to open our markets to give producers the freedom to succeed and consumers the freedom to choose.”
“In order for local farms to compete, they need scale-appropriate regulations. It’s not realistic to ask a local farmer in Maine to drive hours to get to a USDA-inspected processing facility and turn a profit,” said Rep. Pingree, who has been an organic livestock farmer for nearly 40 years. “The PRIME Act will help change federal regulations to make it easier to process meat locally—helping farmers scale up and give consumers what they so clearly want.”
Current law exempts custom slaughter of animals from federal inspection regulations, but only if the meat is slaughtered for personal, household, guest, and employee use (21 U.S.C. § 623(a)). This means that in order to sell individual cuts of locally-raised meats to consumers, farmers and ranchers must first send their animals to one of a limited number of USDA-inspected slaughterhouses. These slaughterhouses are sometimes hundreds of miles away, which adds substantial transportation cost, and also increases the chance that meat raised locally will be co-mingled with industrially-produced meat. The PRIME Act would expand the current custom exemption and allow small farms, ranches, and slaughterhouses to thrive.
Massie, a rancher, owns 50 head of cattle on his off-the-grid farm in northeast Kentucky. Pingree raises grass-fed beef and chickens on her island farm in North Haven, Maine. Original co-sponsors of the PRIME Act include Representatives Jared Huffman (D-CA), John Garamendi (D-CA), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Scott Perry (R-PA), Justin Amash (R-MI), Mark Meadows (R-NC), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Jeff Duncan (R-SC), Steve King (R-IA), and Mark Green (R-TN).
FP


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--Shanghai gold boss wants super-sovereign currency for post-crisis times

SHANGHAI , April 28 – The president of the Shanghai Gold Exchange ( SGE ) called for a new super-sovereign currency to offset the global dominance of the U.S. dollar , which he predicted would decline long term , while gold prices rally .
Concern has mounted among some market participants over the dollar-denominated system as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near-zero and embarked on unlimited quantitative easing to contain the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic .
The measures have helped to drive gold prices XAU= to more than seven-year-highs this month , while the dollar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who heads the world ’ s largest physical spot gold exchange , said in an interview the gold gains should be sustained , but ultimately a new kind of currency was needed .
“ Future global trade needs a super-sovereign currency system under which no single country has the power to freeze the international assets of another country , ” said Wang , who held senior roles at China ’ s central bank , which supervises the SGE .
Wang foresaw a decline in the U.S. currency , triggered by the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed turns on the liquidity tap , the U.S. dollar will , in theory , be in a long-term depreciatory trend , ” he said , even though the panic of the current crisis could trigger a temporary scramble for the greenback .
His comments on a new global currency echo a previous proposal to reform the international monetary system during the 2008/09 global financial crisis .
You know what that means , end of the FIAT money , USA won ’ t no longer be the world sheriff and main currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approves and is working on the plan together with the Chinese or the Chinese want to introduce digital – super – currency without USA ’ s knowledge , green light , in that case that means WW3 .

SHANGHAI, April 28 – The president of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) called for a new super-sovereign currency to offset the global dominance of the U.S. dollar, which he predicted would decline long term, while gold prices rally.
Concern has mounted among some market participants over the dollar-denominated system as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near-zero and embarked on unlimited quantitative easing to contain the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic.
The measures have helped to drive gold prices XAU= to more than seven-year-highs this month, while the dollar has been range-bound. =USD
Wang Zhenying, who heads the world’s largest physical spot gold exchange, said in an interview the gold gains should be sustained, but ultimately a new kind of currency was needed.
“Future global trade needs a super-sovereign currency system under which no single country has the power to freeze the international assets of another country,” said Wang, who held senior roles at China’s central bank, which supervises the SGE.
Wang foresaw a decline in the U.S. currency, triggered by the Fed’s monetary policies.
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“When the Fed turns on the liquidity tap, the U.S. dollar will, in theory, be in a long-term depreciatory trend,” he said, even though the panic of the current crisis could trigger a temporary scramble for the greenback.
His comments on a new global currency echo a previous proposal to reform the international monetary system during the 2008/09 global financial crisis.
more on
www.nasdaq.com/articles/shanghai-gold-boss-wants-super-sovereign-currency-for-post-crisis-times-2020-04-28
You know what that means, end of the FIAT money, USA won’t no longer be the world sheriff and main currency holder, big question is if USA approves and is working on the plan together with the Chinese or the Chinese want to introduce digital – super – currency without USA’s knowledge, green light, in that case that means WW3.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--Canada’s Oil Patch Struggles To Survive The Worst Recession Ever

Canada is likely going through its worst-ever recession , with more pain to come in May when the statistics authorities and analysts will have a fuller picture of the economic disaster brought about by the coronavirus pandemic and the measures to curb its spreading .
The oil price collapse with the demand crash in the Covid-19 outbreak , and the month-long oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia are pressuring Canada ’ s economic activity , more than 5 percent of which comes from the oil and gas sector .
Canada ’ s oil industry – which contributed US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion ) in direct real GDP to the economy in 2019 , or 5.6 percent of Canadian GDP – was hit hard by the double supply-demand shock over the past two months , becoming one of the first collateral victims of the Saudi-Russian spat .
The recovery of Canada ’ s oil industry after this shock will be slow , considering the fact that the global glut threatens to fill up all available storage by as early as mid-May .
Many firms may not survive this price crash .
Because of the importance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s economy and trade in goods , overall economic recovery in the country could be slower than analysts had initially predicted and slower than in other advanced economies that are not big oil producers .
A Reuters poll of 25 economists at the end of April showed that Canada ’ s economy likely shrank by 9.8 percent annually in Q1 and is set for a 37.5-percent plunge in Q2 .
In a flash GDP estimate in mid-April , Statistics Canada said the economy contracted by 9 percent in March , the steepest one-month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1961 .
More than 1 million people lost their jobs in March , with employment rate down by 3.3 percentage points to 58.5 percent—the lowest rate since April 1997 .
The energy sector in Canada is now even more pessimistic about its prospects than it was during the 2008 recession or right after the previous major oil price crash of 2014 , according to a recent Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey ( BOS ) .
Most oil and gas firms in Canada “ saw the current shock as worse than those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financing had become more difficult .
Indeed , while some thought they could withstand a period of low oil prices , many were concerned about access to financing amid declining equity prices , widening credit spreads and a general reduction in risk appetite , ” Josh Nye , Senior Economist at RBC Economics , said in a note in early April .
In the flash estimate for March GDP , Statistics Canada said that “ Despite the collapse in oil prices and the pullback in the sector ’ s investment activities , early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of oil and gas extraction and pipeline transportation had not yet been substantially impacted in March as storage facilities were still being filled.
” But in April and through the summer , the suffering in the oil patch will become painfully evident , with companies slashing capital expenditure and curtailing production as demand crashes , storage fills up , and Western Canadian Select barely manages to stay above US $ 0.00 a barrel these days .
“ While it ’ s encouraging that there ’ s an agreement to end the irresponsible global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been done .
The damage to the Canadian energy sector will be longer lasting due to the liquidity crisis triggered by these market manipulations , ” Tim McMillan , president and CEO at Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers ( CAPP ) , said after OPEC+ patched up the broken alliance to promise nearly 10 million bpd off the market in May and June .
CAPP works with “ federal and provincial governments to help ensure adequate support is in place to enable survival of oil and natural gas sector which is so critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McMillan said early last week .
The federal government is funding a US $ 717 million ( C $ 1 billion ) program to provide grants to oilfield service contractors to perform well , pipeline , and oil and gas site reclamation work .
The program is expected to keep 5,300 jobs in the oil industry at a time when many oil workers are losing their jobs .
Oil production shut-ins could reach 1.1 million bpd this summer , ATB Economics said this week , expecting Canada ’ s oil production to slump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3.5-million-bpd output in 2019 .
That is , if things with the pandemic , demand , and oil prices improve by the fall .
Most analysts concur that Canadian oil firms are likely to curtail at least 1 million bpd of production in the coming months .
“ There ’ s no way to sugar-coat it : the recession brought on by COVID-19 and the oil glut will be the worst downturn in Alberta since the 1930s , ” Todd Hirsch , Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial , wrote in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be brutal , the recovery “ will not be as V-shaped as we ’ d like , but the downturn will pass much sooner than it did in the 1930s , ” Hirsch says .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
Canada is likely going through its worst-ever recession, with more pain to come in May when the statistics authorities and analysts will have a fuller picture of the economic disaster brought about by the coronavirus pandemic and the measures to curb its spreading.
The oil price collapse with the demand crash in the Covid-19 outbreak, and the month-long oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia are pressuring Canada’s economic activity, more than 5 percent of which comes from the oil and gas sector.
Canada’s oil industry – which contributed US$77.4 billion (C$108 billion) in direct real GDP to the economy in 2019, or 5.6 percent of Canadian GDP – was hit hard by the double supply-demand shock over the past two months, becoming one of the first collateral victims of the Saudi-Russian spat.
The recovery of Canada’s oil industry after this shock will be slow, considering the fact that the global glut threatens to fill up all available storage by as early as mid-May. Many firms may not survive this price crash.
Because of the importance of the oil industry in Canada’s economy and trade in goods, overall economic recovery in the country could be slower than analysts had initially predicted and slower than in other advanced economies that are not big oil producers.
A Reuters poll of 25 economists at the end of April showed that Canada’s economy likely shrank by 9.8 percent annually in Q1 and is set for a 37.5-percent plunge in Q2.
In a flash GDP estimate in mid-April, Statistics Canada said the economy contracted by 9 percent in March, the steepest one-month GDP drop ever since the series started in 1961. More than 1 million people lost their jobs in March, with employment rate down by 3.3 percentage points to 58.5 percent—the lowest rate since April 1997.
The energy sector in Canada is now even more pessimistic about its prospects than it was during the 2008 recession or right after the previous major oil price crash of 2014, according to a recent Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BOS).
Most oil and gas firms in Canada “saw the current shock as worse than those in 2008 and 2015 as access to financing had become more difficult. Indeed, while some thought they could withstand a period of low oil prices, many were concerned about access to financing amid declining equity prices, widening credit spreads and a general reduction in risk appetite,” Josh Nye, Senior Economist at RBC Economics, said in a note in early April.
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In the flash estimate for March GDP, Statistics Canada said that “Despite the collapse in oil prices and the pullback in the sector’s investment activities, early indications seem to show that the volume of oil and gas extraction and pipeline transportation had not yet been substantially impacted in March as storage facilities were still being filled.”
But in April and through the summer, the suffering in the oil patch will become painfully evident, with companies slashing capital expenditure and curtailing production as demand crashes, storage fills up, and Western Canadian Select barely manages to stay above US$0.00 a barrel these days.
“While it’s encouraging that there’s an agreement to end the irresponsible global oil price war, much damage has been done. The damage to the Canadian energy sector will be longer lasting due to the liquidity crisis triggered by these market manipulations,” Tim McMillan, president and CEO at Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), said after OPEC+ patched up the broken alliance to promise nearly 10 million bpd off the market in May and June.
CAPP works with “federal and provincial governments to help ensure adequate support is in place to enable survival of oil and natural gas sector which is so critical to Canada’s economy,” McMillan said early last week.
The federal government is funding a US$717 million (C$1 billion) program to provide grants to oilfield service contractors to perform well, pipeline, and oil and gas site reclamation work. The program is expected to keep 5,300 jobs in the oil industry at a time when many oil workers are losing their jobs.
Oil production shut-ins could reach 1.1 million bpd this summer, ATB Economics said this week, expecting Canada’s oil production to slump by 14 percent compared to the over 3.5-million-bpd output in 2019. That is, if things with the pandemic, demand, and oil prices improve by the fall. Most analysts concur that Canadian oil firms are likely to curtail at least 1 million bpd of production in the coming months.
“There’s no way to sugar-coat it: the recession brought on by COVID-19 and the oil glut will be the worst downturn in Alberta since the 1930s,” Todd Hirsch, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, wrote in a note last week.
The recession will be brutal, the recovery “will not be as V-shaped as we’d like, but the downturn will pass much sooner than it did in the 1930s,” Hirsch says.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--Prepare for the Era of Recrimination

Prepare for the Era of Recrimination

Policymakers have put in place numerous programs that are intended to soften the blow of the crisis .
The increase in unemployment benefits was a phenomenally good idea .
But sending checks for $ 1,200 to households does very little to solve the problem , because these payments are not targeted .
Many people who are working and doing fine are going to get a check they don ’ t need .
The people who really could use the money need more than $ 1,200 .
Longer-term , stronger incentives need to be put in place to get people back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ payroll tax holiday for a period of time , along with entitlement reform .
The CARES Act Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) is another great idea .
However , programs that cover this wage gap during the period of lockdown are not going to solve the problem of what happens when the lockdown ends .
Eventually , companies that are keeping people on their payrolls right now—which is a good idea—will find that they can ’ t sustain longer term employment based upon diminished demand .
Programs need to be instituted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inevitable outcome .
The CARES Act targeted funds to help certain industries , but we will discover who is and who is not helped in these programs .
Companies and voters alike will soon ask , “ Why didn ’ t I get help ?
You bailed out the airlines , right ?
You bailed out all these other corporations .
But you didn ’ t do anything for me.
” And federal assistance still might not save the airlines .
Their credit profiles are rapidly deteriorating as debt rises and earnings collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve ( Fed ) for the good intentions of trying to do virtually everything in its power in a time of crisis , but the unintended consequences of its policies are considerable .
Most notably , buying investment-grade and high-yield debt and providing backstop liquidity to companies has resulted in credit spreads tightening dramatically .

Policymakers have put in place numerous programs that are intended to soften the blow of the crisis. The increase in unemployment benefits was a phenomenally good idea. But sending checks for $1,200 to households does very little to solve the problem, because these payments are not targeted. Many people who are working and doing fine are going to get a check they don’t need. The people who really could use the money need more than $1,200. Longer-term, stronger incentives need to be put in place to get people back to work, such as introducing a payroll tax holiday for a period of time, along with entitlement reform.
The CARES Act Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is another great idea. However, programs that cover this wage gap during the period of lockdown are not going to solve the problem of what happens when the lockdown ends. Eventually, companies that are keeping people on their payrolls right now—which is a good idea—will find that they can’t sustain longer term employment based upon diminished demand. Programs need to be instituted to address these issues today before facing the inevitable outcome.
The CARES Act targeted funds to help certain industries, but we will discover who is and who is not helped in these programs. Companies and voters alike will soon ask, “Why didn’t I get help? You bailed out the airlines, right? You bailed out all these other corporations. But you didn’t do anything for me.” And federal assistance still might not save the airlines. Their credit profiles are rapidly deteriorating as debt rises and earnings collapse.
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I can’t fault the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the good intentions of trying to do virtually everything in its power in a time of crisis, but the unintended consequences of its policies are considerable. Most notably, buying investment-grade and high-yield debt and providing backstop liquidity to companies has resulted in credit spreads tightening dramatically.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--The COVID States of America. We are past the point of warnings.

Your not an American , your scum .
Your not a citizen , your a human resource .
Maybe it @ @ @ @ @ all “ We are past the point of warnings .
This is a dangerous situation @ @ @ @ @ of Department Terence Monahan .

The New Normal…
Your not an American, your scum.
Your not a citizen, your a human resource.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Maybe it’s not new at all
“We are past the point of warnings. This is a dangerous situation,” said NYPD Chief of Department Terence Monahan.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--Unemployment filing failures: New survey confirms that millions of jobless were unable to file an un

Unemployment filing failures: New survey confirms that millions of jobless were unable to file an unemployment insurance claim

Millions of the newly jobless are going without benefits as the unemployment system buckles under the weight of new claims , according to our new national survey , conducted in mid-April .
For every 10 people who said they successfully filed for unemployment benefits during the previous four weeks : • Three to four additional people tried to apply but could not get through the system to make a claim .
• Two additional people did not try to apply because it was too difficult to do so .
These findings imply the official count of unemployment insurance claims likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis .
To quantify the undercount , we look at the 21.5 million workers who filed for unemployment benefits from March 22 to April 18 .
Our results suggest : • An additional 7.8 to 12.2 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier .
• After accounting for these workers—who applied but could not get through or did not try because of the difficult process—about half of potential UI applicants are actually receiving benefits .
When we extrapolate our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of UI claims since March 15 , we estimate that an additional 8.9–13.9 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier .
These findings on the millions of frustrated filers and the UI system ’ s low payment rate highlight the need for policies to improve rather than hinder the UI application process .
At a minimum , states should presume everyone is eligible and immediately pay benefits , only verifying eligibility and reviewing claims after the unprecedented wave of claims slows down .
An estimated 24.4 million workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through April 18 .
But while the CARES Act significantly expanded workers ’ UI eligibility and benefits during the coronavirus crisis , widespread reports indicate that long-neglected state UI systems are unable to handle the volume of applications , preventing laid-off or furloughed workers from receiving necessary unemployment benefits .
To gauge how well the UI system is handling the new caseloads , we used Google Surveys to ask 25,000 people , “ Did you apply for unemployment benefits in the last 4 weeks ?
” ( Google Surveys collects responses from visitors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see Google Survey ’ s description for more details and see the paper by Brynjolfsson et al .
for an application of Google Survey data to measure the prevalence of remote work during the pandemic . )
From April 14 to April 24 , 24,607 respondents ( 98 % ) answered the survey .
To our knowledge , ours is the one of the first national surveys that asks about the social safety net and its performance in the COVID-19 era .
In the process of writing this draft , we became aware @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Global Strategy Group April 17–22 , that asked 1,022 registered voters about their experience and difficulty with accessing unemployment benefits .
In addition , a survey conducted by Bick and Blanden April 22–23 found that many respondents have yet to apply for UI benefits .
Figure A shows the shares of people who responded each of the six answers to the question , “ Did you apply for unemployment benefits in the last 4 weeks ?
” ( respondents could select one of the six ) .

by SpontaneousDisorder
via epi.org
Millions of the newly jobless are going without benefits as the unemployment system buckles under the weight of new claims, according to our new national survey, conducted in mid-April.
For every 10 people who said they successfully filed for unemployment benefits during the previous four weeks:
Three to four additional people tried to apply but could not get through the system to make a claim.
Two additional people did not try to apply because it was too difficult to do so.
These findings imply the official count of unemployment insurance claims likely drastically understates the extent of employment reductions and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis. To quantify the undercount, we look at the 21.5 million workers who filed for unemployment benefits from March 22 to April 18. Our results suggest:
An additional 7.8 to 12.2 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier.
After accounting for these workers—who applied but could not get through or did not try because of the difficult process—about half of potential UI applicants are actually receiving benefits.
When we extrapolate our survey findings to the full five weeks of UI claims since March 15, we estimate that an additional 8.9–13.9 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier.
These findings on the millions of frustrated filers and the UI system’s low payment rate highlight the need for policies to improve rather than hinder the UI application process. At a minimum, states should presume everyone is eligible and immediately pay benefits, only verifying eligibility and reviewing claims after the unprecedented wave of claims slows down.
Quantifying reports of frustrated filers for unemployment
An estimated 24.4 million workers filed for unemployment benefits from March 15 through April 18. But while the CARES Act significantly expanded workers’ UI eligibility and benefits during the coronavirus crisis, widespread reports indicate that long-neglected state UI systems are unable to handle the volume of applications, preventing laid-off or furloughed workers from receiving necessary unemployment benefits. To gauge how well the UI system is handling the new caseloads, we used Google Surveys to ask 25,000 people, “Did you apply for unemployment benefits in the last 4 weeks?” (Google Surveys collects responses from visitors to news and other internet sites; see Google Survey’s description for more details and see the paper by Brynjolfsson et al. for an application of Google Survey data to measure the prevalence of remote work during the pandemic.) From April 14 to April 24, 24,607 respondents (98%) answered the survey.
To our knowledge, ours is the one of the first national surveys that asks about the social safety net and its performance in the COVID-19 era. In the process of writing this draft, we became aware of another survey, conducted by Navigator and Global Strategy Group April 17–22, that asked 1,022 registered voters about their experience and difficulty with accessing unemployment benefits. In addition, a survey conducted by Bick and Blanden April 22–23 found that many respondents have yet to apply for UI benefits.
Figure A shows the shares of people who responded each of the six answers to the question, “Did you apply for unemployment benefits in the last 4 weeks?” (respondents could select one of the six).


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--Dr. Inglesby: There’ll Be ‘Rolling Waves Across The Country Between Now & Fall’ | Dr. Tom Inglesby o

Dr. Inglesby: There’ll Be ‘Rolling Waves Across The Country Between Now & Fall’ | Dr. Tom Inglesby of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins

Dr. Tom Inglesby of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins says “ it is good to think about @ @ @ @ @ overlap of COVID and influenza , ” but there will be “ rolling waves ” @ @ @ @ @ .
Aired on 5/1/2020 .
A true sign that there will be a 2nd wave @ @ @ @ @ many idiots flaunt safety rules & local gov cave to armed thugs ; & Trump @ @ @ @ @ violence🔫💣 Oklahoma city ends face mask rule for customers after threats of violence t.co/JaUMhgVSZg

Dr. Tom Inglesby of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins says “it is good to think about the fall especially with the overlap of COVID and influenza,” but there will be “rolling waves” between now and the fall. Aired on 5/1/2020.
A true sign that there will be a 2nd wave of virus cases as too many idiots flaunt safety rules & local gov cave to armed thugs; & Trump will unleash armed militia to violence🔫💣
Oklahoma city ends face mask rule for customers after threats of violence t.co/JaUMhgVSZg
— Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) May 3, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-03--COVID19 surpasses All 2018 Preventable Deaths in the US (Deaths per Day)…  Dr. Birx Calls Protesters

COVID19 surpasses All 2018 Preventable Deaths in the US (Deaths per Day)…  Dr. Birx Calls Protesters Without Masks ‘Devastatingly Worrisome’… This Is Far from Over…

“ Sen .
Marshall Bullock , D-Detroit , says on the Senate floor he ’ s lost 27 people in his life to # COVID19 .
27 people .
Detroit now has 9,057 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 1,035 ( 27 % of all deaths in Michigan ) ” As we begin to see many areas of the U.S. lifting quarantine restrictions and lockdowns , please be cognizant of the fact that COVID-19 is not just disappearing by any means .
This is a premature decision made by the government so they can continue economic flow and try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” to please the idiotic protesters .
Our country has done an incredibly poor job at handling this pandemic .
They do not care if the virus is still spreading .
They do not care if people get sick .
They are continually proving to us they do not care about the health of the masses and the elderly .
There is NO OFFICIAL VACCINE yet that can stop this virus .
We WILL be getting a second round of it in the fall , as it will circulate much like the flu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out in public , please continue to wear masks and take other protective measures .
People will tell you that it ’ s fine and everything will be okay if we go back to normal life but that is so so so far from the truth .
This is serious .
I can not stress this enough .
I know we are all going crazy and having a hard time in isolation .
But think about those people who are sick and suffering and dying from this horrendous disease .
Just because it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t mean it never will .
It ’ s not worth it .
Please be careful .

by Rage4Me_SC
“Sen. Marshall Bullock, D-Detroit, says on the Senate floor he’s lost 27 people in his life to #COVID19. 27 people. Detroit now has 9,057 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 1,035 (27% of all deaths in Michigan)”
Sen. Marshall Bullock, D-Detroit, says on the Senate floor he's lost 27 people in his life to #COVID19. 27 people. Detroit now has 9,057 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 1,035 (27% of all deaths in Michigan). Detroit has 22% of Michigan's 41,379 positive cases. pic.twitter.com/vRpeqHWqXM — Chad Livengood (@ChadLivengood) April 30, 2020
Protesters refusing masks, distancing protocols are ‘devastatingly worrisome,’ White House coronavirus coordinator says
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As we begin to see many areas of the U.S. lifting quarantine restrictions and lockdowns, please be cognizant of the fact that COVID-19 is not just disappearing by any means. This is a premature decision made by the government so they can continue economic flow and try to regain some sense of “normalcy” to please the idiotic protesters. Our country has done an incredibly poor job at handling this pandemic. They do not care if the virus is still spreading. They do not care if people get sick. They are continually proving to us they do not care about the health of the masses and the elderly. There is NO OFFICIAL VACCINE yet that can stop this virus. We WILL be getting a second round of it in the fall, as it will circulate much like the flu. If you do decide to go out in public, please continue to wear masks and take other protective measures. People will tell you that it’s fine and everything will be okay if we go back to normal life but that is so so so far from the truth. This is serious. I cannot stress this enough. I know we are all going crazy and having a hard time in isolation. But think about those people who are sick and suffering and dying from this horrendous disease. Just because it hasn’t happened to you yet doesn’t mean it never will. It’s not worth it. Please be careful.
h/t kamspack