investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Federal Reserve IR Policy – Longer, Lower, and ZIRP Until Something (or Everything) Breaks

The current interest rate cycle began in August of 2019 when the Fed cut rates from a cycle high of 2.4 % to 2.1 % .
The Fed was then fighting the “ repo-crisis ” in which the Fed was incapable of setting interest rates…and gasp…free-market based interest rates were the result .
And , shocker , they were not “ lower for longer ” .
So , just thought put interest rate cycles in perspective and detail why I anticipate this will be the longest and lowest interest rate cycle with likely zero recovery of those rate cuts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest rate cycles from 1981 through 2020 ( and likely through 2040 ) …and note they grow progressively longer , starting and ending lower , and with less interest rate recovery .
Based on this pattern and the macro ’ s driving this , this current cycle is likely to be decades at zero ( or more likely moving to NIRP ) with no rate hikes .
To gauge the changing dynamics of the interest rate cycles , the chart below details the DEPTH of the cut ( the percentage from starting rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DURATION ( the number of months from initial rate cut to initial rate cut of the next cycle ) , and the RECOVERY ( how much rates are hiked in the hiking phase from the cycle low rate ) .
Again , the depth of cuts moves progressively greater ( essentially 100 % for last two cycles ) , duration stretching from less than a year to over a decade , and recovery moving from outright rate hikes to less than 50 % recovery of previous cuts .
Again , this the current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts and I anticipate something on the order of twenty years of zero rates meaning zero recovery .
To put this into perspective , below I show the change per interest rate cycle in full time employees , working age population ( 15 to 64 year-olds ) , and federal debt .
Obviously , the cycles are of differing years , but still note the symmetry in the inverse relationships of rising interest rates/minimal debt during periods of high working age population growth…and falling rates to allow reliance on debt during minimal working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months of the current interest rate cycle , federal debt has already risen by $ 4.4 trillion ( more than any entire cycle prior to ’ 07 ) while working age population is declining ( not due to Covid-19 but decades of negative fertility coupled with fast declining immigration since 2008 , essentially hitting zero in 2020 ) .
The ZIRP policy coupled with minimal working age population growth ( resulting in minimal to no jobs growth over this cycle ) will mean a blow-out of federal debt unlike anything nations outside of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To quantify the situation , the chart below shows the parabolic rise in the growth in federal debt per the net growth per full time employee .
I anticipate this current period will see something like a ten fold increase in the growth of federal debt per full time job net gained as debt soars and the US struggles to simply re-employ those who have lost their positions .
Usually I ’ d wrap it up by showing the change per interest rate cycle…but it ’ s late and you don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of service…so , below are the changes per presidential term since Reagan took office in January of 1981 ( under Trump , I assume by inauguration day , January 2021 federal debt will be sitting at $ 28.2 T , GDP of $ 20.6 T , Fed BS of $ 7.8 T ) .
And I assume all three of the trend arrows below will be continuing their path regardless a Trump or Biden victory .
Bonus Chart – Demographic driven interest rates incenting ever more debt / asset inflation , supported by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Regardless Trump or Biden , MMT and basic universal income are here to stay…unless somebody notices we ’ re broke , the markets are a farce , the dollar is garbage , and debt in a depopulationary/deflationary/depressionary world is toxic !
?
!

by C Hamilton
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The current interest rate cycle began in August of 2019 when the Fed cut rates from a cycle high of 2.4% to 2.1%. The Fed was then fighting the “repo-crisis” in which the Fed was incapable of setting interest rates…and gasp…free-market based interest rates were the result. And, shocker, they were not “lower for longer”. So, just thought put interest rate cycles in perspective and detail why I anticipate this will be the longest and lowest interest rate cycle with likely zero recovery of those rate cuts.
To begin, the chart below shows interest rate cycles from 1981 through 2020 (and likely through 2040)…and note they grow progressively longer, starting and ending lower, and with less interest rate recovery. Based on this pattern and the macro’s driving this, this current cycle is likely to be decades at zero (or more likely moving to NIRP) with no rate hikes.
To gauge the changing dynamics of the interest rate cycles, the chart below details the DEPTH of the cut (the percentage from starting rate to cycle low rate), the DURATION (the number of months from initial rate cut to initial rate cut of the next cycle), and the RECOVERY (how much rates are hiked in the hiking phase from the cycle low rate). Again, the depth of cuts moves progressively greater (essentially 100% for last two cycles), duration stretching from less than a year to over a decade, and recovery moving from outright rate hikes to less than 50% recovery of previous cuts. Again, this the current cycle, we already have 100% cuts and I anticipate something on the order of twenty years of zero rates meaning zero recovery.
To put this into perspective, below I show the change per interest rate cycle in full time employees, working age population (15 to 64 year-olds), and federal debt. Obviously, the cycles are of differing years, but still note the symmetry in the inverse relationships of rising interest rates/minimal debt during periods of high working age population growth…and falling rates to allow reliance on debt during minimal working age population growth. In just eleven months of the current interest rate cycle, federal debt has already risen by $4.4 trillion (more than any entire cycle prior to ’07) while working age population is declining (not due to Covid-19 but decades of negative fertility coupled with fast declining immigration since 2008, essentially hitting zero in 2020). The ZIRP policy coupled with minimal working age population growth (resulting in minimal to no jobs growth over this cycle) will mean a blow-out of federal debt unlike anything nations outside of Zimbabwe or Venezuela have ever seen.
To quantify the situation, the chart below shows the parabolic rise in the growth in federal debt per the net growth per full time employee. I anticipate this current period will see something like a ten fold increase in the growth of federal debt per full time job net gained as debt soars and the US struggles to simply re-employ those who have lost their positions.
Usually I’d wrap it up by showing the change per interest rate cycle…but it’s late and you don’t pay me enuf to get that kind of service…so, below are the changes per presidential term since Reagan took office in January of 1981 (under Trump, I assume by inauguration day, January 2021 federal debt will be sitting at $28.2 T, GDP of $20.6 T, Fed BS of $7.8 T). And I assume all three of the trend arrows below will be continuing their path regardless a Trump or Biden victory.
Invest accordingly.
Bonus Chart – Demographic driven interest rates incenting ever more debt / asset inflation, supported by unlimited Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. Regardless Trump or Biden, MMT and basic universal income are here to stay…unless somebody notices we’re broke, the markets are a farce, the dollar is garbage, and debt in a depopulationary/deflationary/depressionary world is toxic!?!


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--While Dems release thousands of prisoners from jails, one town in Colorado threatens ONE YEAR in jai

While Dems release thousands of prisoners from jails, one town in Colorado threatens ONE YEAR in jail for not wearing a mask

( Natural News ) The Colorado city of Englewood , a suburb of Denver , has imposed a new mandate – which is not a law , by the way – “ requiring ” all residents and people who visit the city to wear something blocking their faces when outside the house , or else face lofty fines and a potential one-year jail sentence .
Even as the Left screeches about defunding the police , mask-pushers everywhere are demanding that anyone who dares to show mouth and/or nose when in the presence of others be approached by the cops and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Englewood , the “ emergency order ” issued by City Manager J. Shawn Lewis and “ approved ” by the city council states that everyone over the age of six in Englewood will have to don a mask every time they leave their home , or else the police will come after them .
The order states that face coverings are necessary in all retail and commercials businesses , as well as government offices , health care facilities and veterinary offices .
People must also wear them while riding and waiting for public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as inside taxis and other ride-sharing vehicles .
Exemptions include people working in offices who are able to maintain at least six feet of distance from others , as well as those whose health is in any way inhibited or negatively affected by having a piece of cloth blocking their breathing passages .
“ Workers with health issues that preclude them from wearing a Face Covering must document those concerns with their employer , ” the order goes on to state , indicating that employees in Englewood can also inform their employers of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gain exemptions .
Oh , so now we CAN ’ T abolish the police because we need them to enforce mask-wearing While it remains unclear whether or not the city ’ s police department is actually enforcing this order , it does state that the department has the authority to impose penalties , including $ 15 fines for first offenses and $ 25 fines for second offenses .
The order also indicates that a person can be charged with a maximum penalty of a fine up to $ 2,650 , 360 days in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Any person charged with an offense under this Emergency Order may choose to enter a plea of not guilty and be entitled to trial as authorized by law in accordance with E.M.C .
1-7-4 , ” the order further explains .
Effective July 9 , 2020 , the order indicates that it shall remain in effect “ until rescinded by action of the City Council or the City Manager of the City of Englewood , ” though the legality of this type of indefinite decree remains questionable .
While many will comply with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely to challenge this edict in court on constitutional grounds .
Forcing people to obstruct their natural breathing as a condition of being “ allowed ” to move about in public and engage in commerce would seem to be far outside the bounds of government jurisdiction .
It is also laughable that Democrats in support of such an order are simultaneously demanding the abolition of the very police systems that would be necessary to enforce it .
Somehow the police are becoming essential once again now that the Left wants to make sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over their faces at all times .
The city of Englewood is claiming that it has the authority to impose the order on the grounds that it is necessary “ for the protection of life and property , including , but not limited to , establishing regulations governing conduct related to the cause of the public health emergency.
” “ If any provision of this Order conflicts with any provision of the City of Englewood Municipal Code , or any provision of the City Council ’ s Procedures and Rules of Order , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it concludes .
More related news about the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) is available at Pandemic.news .

by: Ethan Huff
(Natural News) The Colorado city of Englewood, a suburb of Denver, has imposed a new mandate – which is not a law, by the way – “requiring” all residents and people who visit the city to wear something blocking their faces when outside the house, or else face lofty fines and a potential one-year jail sentence.
Even as the Left screeches about defunding the police, mask-pushers everywhere are demanding that anyone who dares to show mouth and/or nose when in the presence of others be approached by the cops and harassed, fined or worse.
In Englewood, the “emergency order” issued by City Manager J. Shawn Lewis and “approved” by the city council states that everyone over the age of six in Englewood will have to don a mask every time they leave their home, or else the police will come after them.
The order states that face coverings are necessary in all retail and commercials businesses, as well as government offices, health care facilities and veterinary offices. People must also wear them while riding and waiting for public transportation such as buses, as well as inside taxis and other ride-sharing vehicles.
Exemptions include people working in offices who are able to maintain at least six feet of distance from others, as well as those whose health is in any way inhibited or negatively affected by having a piece of cloth blocking their breathing passages.
“Workers with health issues that preclude them from wearing a Face Covering must document those concerns with their employer,” the order goes on to state, indicating that employees in Englewood can also inform their employers of health concerns over mask-wearing in order to gain exemptions.
Oh, so now we CAN’T abolish the police because we need them to enforce mask-wearing
While it remains unclear whether or not the city’s police department is actually enforcing this order, it does state that the department has the authority to impose penalties, including $15 fines for first offenses and $25 fines for second offenses.
The order also indicates that a person can be charged with a maximum penalty of a fine up to $2,650, 360 days in jail, or potentially both.
“Any person charged with an offense under this Emergency Order may choose to enter a plea of not guilty and be entitled to trial as authorized by law in accordance with E.M.C. 1-7-4,” the order further explains.
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Effective July 9, 2020, the order indicates that it shall remain in effect “until rescinded by action of the City Council or the City Manager of the City of Englewood,” though the legality of this type of indefinite decree remains questionable.
While many will comply with it due to fear, others are likely to challenge this edict in court on constitutional grounds. Forcing people to obstruct their natural breathing as a condition of being “allowed” to move about in public and engage in commerce would seem to be far outside the bounds of government jurisdiction.
It is also laughable that Democrats in support of such an order are simultaneously demanding the abolition of the very police systems that would be necessary to enforce it. Somehow the police are becoming essential once again now that the Left wants to make sure that everyone has a piece of cloth over their faces at all times.
The city of Englewood is claiming that it has the authority to impose the order on the grounds that it is necessary “for the protection of life and property, including, but not limited to, establishing regulations governing conduct related to the cause of the public health emergency.”
“If any provision of this Order conflicts with any provision of the City of Englewood Municipal Code, or any provision of the City Council’s Procedures and Rules of Order, this Emergency Order shall control,” it concludes.
More related news about the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) is available at Pandemic.news.
Sources for this article include:
NYPost.com
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Universities to force students to get flu shots, sign “distancing” contracts in order to attend clas

Universities to force students to get flu shots, sign “distancing” contracts in order to attend classes this fall

( Natural News ) In order to return back to school this fall , college students enrolled at a number of American universities will have to get vaccinated with flu shots and sign “ social distancing ” contracts in accordance with draconian new Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) guidelines .
Both Harvard University and the University of Tennessee – Knoxville have already announced that getting an annual jab for seasonal influenza will be a new requirement for all students who attend classes in person .
And UT-Knoxville specifically has added the caveat that once a Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be safe and effective , ” it , too will be a requirement for students wanting to come back to campus .
“ While we have received a small amount of mixed feedback , we believe this action is in the best interest of our students and campus communities , ” stated UT-Knoxville communications director Melissa Tindell .
At Harvard , students will also be required to “ participate in routine COVID-19 testing , ” as well as wear masks in all public spaces .
There will also be limited access to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushing its students to settle for “ virtual socializing ” rather than in-person socializing as the “ first option for social contact.
” Cornell University , Princeton University , and the University of Colorado Boulder have all indicated that they will likewise be drastically revamping the student experience on their campuses .
What is it with Knoxville trying to micromanage people ’ s lives ?
The consulting firm EAB recently conducted a survey of 69 different educational institutions to see what they are planning to do in response to the plandemic .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are planning to “ ask students to sign agreements to follow university and public health guidelines.
” One in six institutions also told the firm that they are planning to punish students who violate “ social distancing ” mandates , while another 37 percent are still in the process of considering doing the same .
That UT-Knoxville is among the first American universities to impose some of the strictest and most draconian measures for its students in response to the plandemic is actually not all that surprising , seeing as how Knoxville @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American cities to impose aggressively unconstitutional “ reopening ” mandates that prohibited churchgoers from singing with their congregations and reading their Bibles during services .
“ All medical interventions , including vaccines , must be a choice , ” responded Danielle Goodrich from the Tennessee Coalition for Vaccine Choice about this latest move by UT-Knoxville to strip students of their right to make their own medical choices .
“ Our schools and public health should uphold our inalienable , God-given rights , ” she added .
Another major problem with these mandates is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ students to be injected with untested chemicals and abortion-derived DNA material that is known to cause serious injury or even death in some people .
“ Fear of a disease – which we know very little about , relative to other similar diseases – must not lead to knee-jerk reactions regarding public health , nor can it justify supporting the hidden agenda of governmental as well as non-governmental bodies that have apparent conflicts of interest in plans to restrict personal freedoms , ” warns LifeSiteNews .
A “ LifePetitions ” petition created by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any and all attempts at mandating a Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccine , not to mention all other vaccines .
You can sign that petition at this link .
“ Virtually overnight we have become a nation of hysteric germophobes , ” wrote one LifeSiteNews commenter about this dire situation that is transpiring .
More news about the dramatic changes being made to “ higher education ” in response to the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) is also available at CampusInsanity.com .

by: Ethan Huff
(Natural News) In order to return back to school this fall, college students enrolled at a number of American universities will have to get vaccinated with flu shots and sign “social distancing” contracts in accordance with draconian new Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) guidelines.
Both Harvard University and the University of Tennessee – Knoxville have already announced that getting an annual jab for seasonal influenza will be a new requirement for all students who attend classes in person. And UT-Knoxville specifically has added the caveat that once a Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine is released that is “proven to be safe and effective,” it, too will be a requirement for students wanting to come back to campus.
“While we have received a small amount of mixed feedback, we believe this action is in the best interest of our students and campus communities,” stated UT-Knoxville communications director Melissa Tindell.
At Harvard, students will also be required to “participate in routine COVID-19 testing,” as well as wear masks in all public spaces. There will also be limited access to on-campus buildings at Harvard, which is pushing its students to settle for “virtual socializing” rather than in-person socializing as the “first option for social contact.”
Cornell University, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado Boulder have all indicated that they will likewise be drastically revamping the student experience on their campuses.
What is it with Knoxville trying to micromanage people’s lives?
The consulting firm EAB recently conducted a survey of 69 different educational institutions to see what they are planning to do in response to the plandemic. A shocking 40 percent of them indicated that they are planning to “ask students to sign agreements to follow university and public health guidelines.”
One in six institutions also told the firm that they are planning to punish students who violate “social distancing” mandates, while another 37 percent are still in the process of considering doing the same.
That UT-Knoxville is among the first American universities to impose some of the strictest and most draconian measures for its students in response to the plandemic is actually not all that surprising, seeing as how Knoxville itself was also one of the first American cities to impose aggressively unconstitutional “reopening” mandates that prohibited churchgoers from singing with their congregations and reading their Bibles during services.
“All medical interventions, including vaccines, must be a choice,” responded Danielle Goodrich from the Tennessee Coalition for Vaccine Choice about this latest move by UT-Knoxville to strip students of their right to make their own medical choices. “Our schools and public health should uphold our inalienable, God-given rights,” she added.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Another major problem with these mandates is that the vaccination component in particular forces students to be injected with untested chemicals and abortion-derived DNA material that is known to cause serious injury or even death in some people.
“Fear of a disease – which we know very little about, relative to other similar diseases – must not lead to knee-jerk reactions regarding public health, nor can it justify supporting the hidden agenda of governmental as well as non-governmental bodies that have apparent conflicts of interest in plans to restrict personal freedoms,” warns LifeSiteNews.
A “LifePetitions” petition created by LifeSiteNews calls on people everywhere to oppose any and all attempts at mandating a Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, not to mention all other vaccines. You can sign that petition at this link.
“Virtually overnight we have become a nation of hysteric germophobes,” wrote one LifeSiteNews commenter about this dire situation that is transpiring.
More news about the dramatic changes being made to “higher education” in response to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) is also available at CampusInsanity.com.
Sources for this article include:
LifeSiteNews.com
NaturalNews.com
LifePetitions.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--$40 Oil Isn’t Enough For Saudi Arabia

$40 Oil Isn’t Enough For Saudi Arabia

Despite the recommendation of the OPEC+ JMMC to ease the oil output cuts by 2 million bbl/d , oil markets maintained their bullish sentiment over the past week as Brent was trading above $ 43 while WTI was trading above $ 40 .
A surge in COVID-19 cases in several counties including the US , Spain , and Australia capped oil price gains .
Markets were primarily supported by a continued withdrawal in commercial crude inventories which declined by 7.5 million barrels w/w to stand at 531.7 million barrels .
Gasoline inventories also declined by 3.1 million barrels w/w reflecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Along the decline in inventories , crude imports fell by 1.83 million bbl/d w/w and are currently standing at 5.57 million bbl/d , which may be part of the reason for the drop in inventories .
The other reason for the decline in inventories is the balance in the markets where demand now exceeds supply , something we had anticipated , last April , to take place in July .
We currently expect commercial inventories to continue to decline especially during July and August as these months historically are the peak of driving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be fixed at 11 million bbl/d for the 3rd consecutive week .
The decline in oil rigs continues , with the latest figure being 1 rig w/w , and it may have already reached its lowest level at around 180 rigs .
Demand figures continue to be revised up Similar to the IEA and EIA , OPEC raised its 2020 demand forecast to 90.72 million bbl/d , up by 0.13 million bbl/d from its previous forecast , which is 0.375 million bbl/d higher than CMarkits ’ forecast .
This includes an expected average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million bbl/d in Q3 and Q4 2020 , respectively .
This is higher than CMarkits ’ forecast by 0.11 million bbl/d and 1.89 million bbl/d , respectively .
Furthermore , non-OPEC supply is expected to stand at 61.76 million bbl/d in 2020 , down by 3.26 million bbl/d w/w , which is 0.99 million bbl/d higher than CMarkits ’ forecast .
The majority of production decline will come from the US and FSU due to forced shut-ins and participation in the OPEC+ output cuts .
Furthermore , the OPEC-10 countries have collectively achieved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June , despite many countries falling behind their targets including Angola , Congo , Equatorial Guinea , Gabon , Iraq , and Nigeria .
The total OPEC+ compliance was reported to stand at 107 % supported by voluntary contributions from Saudi Arabia , UAE and Kuwait .
OPEC+ additional production will be offset by deeper cuts Meanwhile , OPEC+ JMMC has recommended transitioning into the 2nd phase of the cut agreement which is set to ease output cuts by 2 million bbl/d starting from August .
Yet the impact of this decision was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for three reasons ( i ) demand is still expected to be higher than supply in Q3 and Q4 , and ( ii ) deeper cuts from low-compliance countries will amount to at least 0.8 million bbl/d in Q3 , and ( iii ) the increase in production will not lead to an increase in exports .
The Nigerian Energy Minister has confirmed that his country would commit to achieving a 100 % compliance by the end of July including deeper compensatory cuts , and this will continue till the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ August production figures will include the 7.68 million bbl/d cuts plus at least extra 0.4 million bbl/d of compensatory cuts from previously non-complying countries leading to effective cuts of at least 8.1 million bbl/d .
Still some countries are yet to submit their compensation plans by the end of July .
Saudi Arabia and Russia will equally be ramping up their individual production by around 0.5 million bbl/d which will go to national consumption of gasoline and diesel as the two countries re-open their economies .
This was confirmed by both the Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to our forecast , Q3 demand figures are expected to stand at 3.69 million bbl/d and 4.40 million bbl/d for Saudi Arabia and Russia , respectively .
Although OPEC+ may celebrate the first phase of the achievement , it remains cautious with easing its cuts through the 2nd half of the year .
Fears of a 2nd wave of COVID-19 in many countries around the world continues to have an impact on the markets .
Saudi Arabia ’ s Energy Minister has emphasized that the group is open to revise its decision if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to demand shocks similar to those in April .
Despite the relaxation of OPEC+ cuts , crude continued to trade within the $ 40-43 range .
Yet , Saudi Arabia ’ s Energy Minister , Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman , had highlighted that although OPEC itself does not have a price target , current prices are not sustainable for the industry , leading to potential insecurity of supply in the long term .
CMarkits ’ latest forecast sees an average price of $ 43 for Brent in July that may rise to $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ smoothly recover .
Morgan Stanley had also raised its forecast for Brent by $ 5 to $ 40 in Q3 , something we had predicted at the beginning of Q2 .
Another bullish indicator for crude is the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 .
Oxford University announced last week that a potential vaccine may be introduced by September which could have a dramatic impact on the global economy .
While OPEC+ has noted improving compliance levels and market conditions , we believe that the remaining challenge is not only the price , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil inventories , which remain near historic highs .
Bringing inventory levels back to pre-crisis levels , which we do not expect to be reached until mid 2021 , is a major goal for OPEC as highlighted by Prince Abdulaziz .
The Saudi Oil Minister also stated that the agreement is biblical in a way and that it can not be changed even if the demand picture comes up better than what was expected in 2021 and 2022 .
Even if the agreement ends in 2022 , an equivalent agreement should make sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next JMMC meeting will be held virtually on August 18th which is expected to review July production figures , compliance rates while verifying compensation plans of countries that didn ’ t reach 100 % compliance .

By Yousef Alshammari
Despite the recommendation of the OPEC+ JMMC to ease the oil output cuts by 2 million bbl/d, oil markets maintained their bullish sentiment over the past week as Brent was trading above $43 while WTI was trading above $40. A surge in COVID-19 cases in several counties including the US, Spain, and Australia capped oil price gains.
Bullish figures from the EIA
Markets were primarily supported by a continued withdrawal in commercial crude inventories which declined by 7.5 million barrels w/w to stand at 531.7 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also declined by 3.1 million barrels w/w reflecting a significant rise in demand levels. Along the decline in inventories, crude imports fell by 1.83 million bbl/d w/w and are currently standing at 5.57 million bbl/d, which may be part of the reason for the drop in inventories. The other reason for the decline in inventories is the balance in the markets where demand now exceeds supply, something we had anticipated, last April, to take place in July.
We currently expect commercial inventories to continue to decline especially during July and August as these months historically are the peak of driving season. U.S. oil production continues to be fixed at 11 million bbl/d for the 3rd consecutive week. The decline in oil rigs continues, with the latest figure being 1 rig w/w, and it may have already reached its lowest level at around 180 rigs.
Demand figures continue to be revised up
Similar to the IEA and EIA, OPEC raised its 2020 demand forecast to 90.72 million bbl/d, up by 0.13 million bbl/d from its previous forecast, which is 0.375 million bbl/d higher than CMarkits’ forecast. This includes an expected average demand of 92.22 million bbl/d and 96.22 million bbl/d in Q3 and Q4 2020, respectively. This is higher than CMarkits’ forecast by 0.11 million bbl/d and 1.89 million bbl/d, respectively. Furthermore, non-OPEC supply is expected to stand at 61.76 million bbl/d in 2020, down by 3.26 million bbl/d w/w, which is 0.99 million bbl/d higher than CMarkits’ forecast. The majority of production decline will come from the US and FSU due to forced shut-ins and participation in the OPEC+ output cuts. Furthermore, the OPEC-10 countries have collectively achieved a total compliance of 103.64% in June, despite many countries falling behind their targets including Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, and Nigeria. The total OPEC+ compliance was reported to stand at 107% supported by voluntary contributions from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait.
OPEC+ additional production will be offset by deeper cuts
Meanwhile, OPEC+ JMMC has recommended transitioning into the 2nd phase of the cut agreement which is set to ease output cuts by 2 million bbl/d starting from August. Yet the impact of this decision was little felt on the markets last week, for three reasons (i) demand is still expected to be higher than supply in Q3 and Q4, and (ii) deeper cuts from low-compliance countries will amount to at least 0.8 million bbl/d in Q3, and (iii) the increase in production will not lead to an increase in exports. The Nigerian Energy Minister has confirmed that his country would commit to achieving a 100% compliance by the end of July including deeper compensatory cuts, and this will continue till the end of Q3.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It is expected that the August production figures will include the 7.68 million bbl/d cuts plus at least extra 0.4 million bbl/d of compensatory cuts from previously non-complying countries leading to effective cuts of at least 8.1 million bbl/d. Still some countries are yet to submit their compensation plans by the end of July. Saudi Arabia and Russia will equally be ramping up their individual production by around 0.5 million bbl/d which will go to national consumption of gasoline and diesel as the two countries re-open their economies. This was confirmed by both the Saudi and the Russian Energy ministers. According to our forecast, Q3 demand figures are expected to stand at 3.69 million bbl/d and 4.40 million bbl/d for Saudi Arabia and Russia, respectively.
Although OPEC+ may celebrate the first phase of the achievement, it remains cautious with easing its cuts through the 2nd half of the year. Fears of a 2nd wave of COVID-19 in many countries around the world continues to have an impact on the markets. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister has emphasized that the group is open to revise its decision if the market situation changes, particularly referring to demand shocks similar to those in April.
Despite the relaxation of OPEC+ cuts, crude continued to trade within the $40-43 range. Yet, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, had highlighted that although OPEC itself does not have a price target, current prices are not sustainable for the industry, leading to potential insecurity of supply in the long term.
CMarkits’ latest forecast sees an average price of $43 for Brent in July that may rise to $50 by December if demand continues to smoothly recover. Morgan Stanley had also raised its forecast for Brent by $5 to $40 in Q3, something we had predicted at the beginning of Q2.
Another bullish indicator for crude is the development of a vaccine against COVID-19. Oxford University announced last week that a potential vaccine may be introduced by September which could have a dramatic impact on the global economy.
While OPEC+ has noted improving compliance levels and market conditions, we believe that the remaining challenge is not only the price, but most importantly the continued drawdown of oil inventories, which remain near historic highs. Bringing inventory levels back to pre-crisis levels, which we do not expect to be reached until mid 2021, is a major goal for OPEC as highlighted by Prince Abdulaziz. The Saudi Oil Minister also stated that the agreement is biblical in a way and that it cannot be changed even if the demand picture comes up better than what was expected in 2021 and 2022. Even if the agreement ends in 2022, an equivalent agreement should make sure the crude market remains balanced.
The next JMMC meeting will be held virtually on August 18th which is expected to review July production figures, compliance rates while verifying compensation plans of countries that didn’t reach 100% compliance.
By Yousef Alshammari by Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--12 Videos Prove Police Use Drones To Ticket And Surveil The Public

Police justify using drones to spy on sunbathers because it is a public beach AOC wants to know why the @ @ @ @ @ Predator drone to spy on Portland protesters .
NYPD police use COVID-19 as an excuse @ @ @ @ @ people for social distancing Georgia police use COVID-19 as an excuse to use drones to @ @ @ @ @ Michigan police use COVID-19 as an excuse to use drones to monitor people for social @ @ @ @ @ used drones to arrest more than 50 people Sacramento Police use Chinese-made DJI micro-drones to @ @ @

by mapi
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Minnesota police use drones to ticket topless sunbathers
Police justify using drones to spy on sunbathers because it is a public beach
Arizona cops use drones to arrest BLM protesters
CBP uses drones to track Minneapolis protesters
AOC wants to know why the hell the CBP used a Predator drone to spy on Portland protesters.
NYPD police use COVID-19 as an excuse to use drones to monitor people for social distancing
Georgia police use COVID-19 as an excuse to use drones to monitor people for social distancing
Daytona police use COVID-19 as an excuse to use drones to monitor people for social distancing
Michigan police use COVID-19 as an excuse to use drones to monitor people for social distancing
Kansas City police have used drones to arrest more than 50 people
LAPD drone surveillance program
Sacramento Police use Chinese-made DJI micro-drones to monitor the public
National Association of Chief of Police endorse CRI tactical drone programs


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--20 Million Workers Pay Cut or Hours Cut as Global Economic Collapse Enters New Phase

There has been widespread wage and hours cut and that ’ s on top of massive unemployment , and an @ @ @ @ @ .
All of this has compounded and yet the media refuses to acknowledge it , @ @ @ @ @ ’ t looking for that information , and the cheerleaders will only look at nonsensical @ @ @ @ @ help you in the least .
Instead… U.S. Companies Lose Hope for Quick Rebound From @ @ @ @ @ U.S. Should Weigh Forgiving ‘ Small ’ PPP Loans – Bloomberg Brookfield , other US @ @ @ @ @ lots during pandemic DBS CEO says ‘ a big , big challenge ’ is looming @ @ @ @

There has been widespread wage and hours cut and that’s on top of massive unemployment, and an economic downturn with absolute uncertainty. All of this has compounded and yet the media refuses to acknowledge it, the stock market certainly isn’t looking for that information, and the cheerleaders will only look at nonsensical worthless distractions that do not help you in the least. Instead…
America’s hidden economic crisis: Widespread wage cuts – POLITICO
www.politico.com/news/2020/07/19/wage-cuts-economy-crisis-368508
U.S. Companies Lose Hope for Quick Rebound From Covid-19 – WSJ
www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-companies-lose-hope-for-quick-rebound-from-covid-19-11595151000
2020-07-11_07-55-30_0.png (810×520)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-07-11_07-55-30_0.png?itok=a38G1EmR
Coronavirus continues hit L.A., Long Beach ports hard halfway through 2020 – Daily News
www.dailynews.com/2020/07/15/coronavirus-continues-hit-l-a-long-beach-ports-hard-halfway-through-2020/
Mnuchin Says U.S. Should Weigh Forgiving ‘Small’ PPP Loans – Bloomberg
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-17/mnuchin-says-u-s-should-weigh-forigiving-all-small-ppp-loans
State of the Industry | OpenTable
www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
Brookfield, other US mall owners rent out parking lots during pandemic
www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/brookfield-other-us-mall-owners-rent-out-parking-lots-during-pandemic.html
DBS CEO says ‘a big, big challenge’ is looming in the global economy
www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/dbs-ceo-says-a-big-big-challenge-is-looming-in-the-global-economy.html
Data: Congress created virus aid, then reaped the benefits – SFGate
www.sfgate.com/news/article/Data-Congress-created-virus-aid-then-reaped-the-15393082.php


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Technically Speaking: 15-Bullish Beliefs (Or Not) For The Market

In this edition of “ Technically Speaking ” we analyze the 15-bullish beliefs ( or not ) currently supporting the market .
Is this time different ?
Or should investors be concerned ?
Yesterday , the market broke out of its consolidation range that we have been discussing over the past several weeks .
Such is undeniably bullish and sets the market up for a test of “ all-time ” highs .
However , while we did get a bit of “ exuberance ” yesterday , there was still considerable weakness beneath the overall market .
As noted this weekend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to perform as expected and has provided the seasonal lift to stocks .
However , as noted by SentimenTrader , the markets are about to enter the seasonally “ weak , ” two months of the year .
“ What the black line on the chart shows us is the S & P ’ s average two-month return over the next two months for every trading day of the year .
We ’ re at trading day # 138 as of Monday , with late July being one of the very few windows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average forward return is more than -1 % .
Contrast that to early October , when its average two-month return has been more than +3.5 % .
” SentimenTrader ’ s analysis does mean that markets will “ absolutely ” fall out of bed next month .
However , given the size of the run from the March lows , against a backdrop of extremely weak economic data , a “ breather ” should not be out of the question .
This is also the case , when we analyze the most common @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While this list is by no means exhaustive , it does offer many of the most important assumptions currently supporting the market .
1 .
Corporate managers have become so adept at their jobs that profit margins and equity valuations will remain at , or rise from current nearly unprecedented levels .
2 .
Bond yields will rise as economic growth returns , which will support stock prices .
3 .
The Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and provide more liquidity .
4 .
Annual fiscal deficits over $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no consequences 5 .
The rising number of COVID-19 Cases , when they collide with the annual “ Flu ” season , will not inhibit consumers from getting back into the economy .
6 .
The rising number of corporate bankruptcies is a “ non-event ” due to the Fed .
7 .
Technology companies are the best place to invest now and going forward as they can continue to grow earnings .
8 .
The resurgence of the U.S./China trade war won ’ t have any impact on the economy or markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of corporate profits , also have a high correlation to consumption and related economic activity .
9 .
Corporations , via stock buybacks , will continue to be the predominant purchaser of U.S. stocks 10 .
Liquidity flows to the financial markets are never going to stop .
13 .
Corporations are issuing debt at cheap rates , which will be a good thing long-term .
14 .
The stock market is a can ’ t lose situation .
Buy stocks as they always go up .
And…The most important factor bulls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This time is different

by Lance Roberts
In this edition of “Technically Speaking” we analyze the 15-bullish beliefs (or not) currently supporting the market. Is this time different? Or should investors be concerned?
Bullish Moves
Yesterday, the market broke out of its consolidation range that we have been discussing over the past several weeks. Such is undeniably bullish and sets the market up for a test of “all-time” highs.
However, while we did get a bit of “exuberance” yesterday, there was still considerable weakness beneath the overall market. As noted this weekend, the month of July has continued to perform as expected and has provided the seasonal lift to stocks.
“In the short-term, the bulls remain in charge currently, and as such, we must be mindful of those trends. Also, the month of July tends to be one of the better performing months of the year.”
Seasonal Weakness
However, as noted by SentimenTrader, the markets are about to enter the seasonally “weak,” two months of the year.
“According to Morgan Stanley (via the WSJ), stocks are about to enter a seasonally rough stretch. Indeed we are, based on seasonal calendar returns for the S&P 500. Seasonality in stocks is a tertiary factor even at its best and carries very little weight. It’s still a headwind, though.”
“It’s even worse for indexes like the Nasdaq 100, whose component stocks have helped to drive this rally. The NDX’s seasonal peak is right now.”
“If we use the Morgan Stanley methodology to look at the S&P 500’s forward rolling 2-month returns since 1999, then we can see a similar pattern, with the biggest dip occurring right about now.”
“What the black line on the chart shows us is the S&P’s average two-month return over the next two months for every trading day of the year. We’re at trading day #138 as of Monday, with late July being one of the very few windows where the S&P’s average forward return is more than -1%. Contrast that to early October, when its average two-month return has been more than +3.5%.”
SentimenTrader’s analysis does mean that markets will “absolutely” fall out of bed next month. However, given the size of the run from the March lows, against a backdrop of extremely weak economic data, a “breather” should not be out of the question.
This is also the case, when we analyze the most common “media” arguments for the rally.
15-Bullish Factors (Or Not)
While this list is by no means exhaustive, it does offer many of the most important assumptions currently supporting the market.
1. Corporate managers have become so adept at their jobs that profit margins and equity valuations will remain at, or rise from current nearly unprecedented levels.
Read More
2. Bond yields will rise as economic growth returns, which will support stock prices.
Read More
3. The Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and provide more liquidity.
Read More
4. Annual fiscal deficits over $1 trillion will power economic growth with no consequences
Read More
5. The rising number of COVID-19 Cases, when they collide with the annual “Flu” season, will not inhibit consumers from getting back into the economy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
H/T @not_jim_cramer
6. The rising number of corporate bankruptcies is a “non-event” due to the Fed.
7. Technology companies are the best place to invest now and going forward as they can continue to grow earnings.
Read More
8. The resurgence of the U.S./China trade war won’t have any impact on the economy or markets.
Exports, which comprise roughly 40% of corporate profits, also have a high correlation to consumption and related economic activity.
Read More
9. Corporations, via stock buybacks, will continue to be the predominant purchaser of U.S. stocks
10. Liquidity flows to the financial markets are never going to stop.
11. Central Banks can permanently prop up asset prices.
Read More
12. Valuations don’t matter. Just the Fed.
Read More
13. Corporations are issuing debt at cheap rates, which will be a good thing long-term.
14. The stock market is a can’t lose situation. Buy stocks as they always go up.
And…The most important factor bulls must assume to be true:
15. This time is different


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Live image of the NY Fed’s trading desk adding liquidity to the market

Live image of the NY Fed’s trading desk adding liquidity to the market t.co/MReuK3nn87 — David Belle (@macrodesiac_) July 21, 2020
Never Before Has So Much #Stimulus Been Injected In The Economy In A Single Quarter t.co/fMhE1W1aop pic.twitter.com/GygxDUs9r8 — GoldBroker.com (@Goldbroker_com) July 21, 2020
I understand the Nasdaq- but this has gotta be one of the most delusional price levels on an index t.co/xwBtgZIX8Z — 🇭🇰 Kunal Shah 🇺🇸🇬🇧 (@realKunalAShah) July 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--I guarantee it! – Men’s Warehouse To Shut 500 Stores, Cut 20% Of Corporate Workforce

The parent company of Men ’ s Warehouse announced a round of layoffs and hundreds of looming store closures Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ a blow from the coronavirus pandemic .
Tailored Brands said it is eliminating roughly 20 @ @ @ @ @ by the end of its fiscal second quarter .
It also said it has selected @ @ @ @ @ stores that it could potentially close “ over time.
” It did not disclose a @ @ @ @ @ .
It also announced that its current CFO , Jack Calandra , will depart the @ @ @ @ @ In the near term , it said Calandra ’ s responsibilities will be divided between @ @ @ @ @ , a managing director at AlixPartners who has been appointed to a new chief restructuring @ @ @ @ @

The parent company of Men’s Warehouse announced a round of layoffs and hundreds of looming store closures Tuesday, as its business suffers a blow from the coronavirus pandemic.
Tailored Brands said it is eliminating roughly 20% of its corporate workforce by the end of its fiscal second quarter. It also said it has selected up to 500 of its stores that it could potentially close “over time.” It did not disclose a list of those exact locations.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It also announced that its current CFO, Jack Calandra, will depart the company on July 31. In the near term, it said Calandra’s responsibilities will be divided between its CEO and Holly Etlin, a managing director at AlixPartners who has been appointed to a new chief restructuring role for Tailored Brands.
www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/mens-warehouse-owner-tailored-brands-plans-job-cuts-store-closures.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Walmart (WMT) eCommerce growth: A Wolf on a Leash

For this year , 2020 , Walmart is set-up to do about 480 Billion in in-store sales , and 41 Billion in eCommerce sales .
As of now , only 8 % of Walmarts total sales are coming from the eCommerce channel .
If you are an investor considering Walmart and properly are evaluating Walmarts eCommerce upside potential , then here ’ s one of the limiting thoughts you ’ ve probably had : “ Even if I bet on Walmart , how much will a meteoric rise in eCommerce sales be weighed down by Walmart ’ s established but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Stock value won ’ t ever capitulate the way a tech company can with so much of it ’ s market cap locked into the in-store sales where PE ratios are low ” Looking at the growth scenarios laid out below , their in-store sales should not be as big of a negative ‘ gut-check ’ analysis would have you believe .
If Walmart can execute the eCommerce growth story , then not only does Walmarts eCommerce have the potential to out-size all of it ’ s current total yearly in-stores sales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overweight expectations for it ’ s Market-cap because analysts will be forced to re-evaluate the type of holding Walmart is entirely .
Walmart will not be “ defensive-retail ” when that shift begins to happen and it ’ s PE multiple will move accordingly .
If it ’ s eCommerce deliveries on a successful growth story , it ’ s value will justify a much higher multiple of it ’ s earnings .
So – what are some potential out-comes for Walmarts eCommerce sales trajectory in the next few years ?
If Walmarts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 % YoY increase , Walmarts eCommerce total gross sales will eclipse the sales of its current in-store business for this year in less than 8 years .
In-store Walmart sales this year are set to be 480 Billion~ eCommerce 2020 set to be 41 Billion and grows to 432.40 Billion in 7 years.. 8 years is a long time , but that is massive upside potential and growth .
At a more conservative growth rate of only 25 % YoY eCommerce sales , Walmarts eCommerce sales will eclipse its current in-store business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years .
Again , in-store Walmart sales this year are set to be 480 Billion~ eCommerce 2020 set to be 41 Billion and grows to 477.30 Billion in 11 years , year 12 it ’ s 596.63 Billion .
Walmarts in-store business does not have the same growth potential as online .
In-store sales growth outpaces inflation slightly , but it ’ s subject to so many more head-winds , low-margin products , and lack of automation/efficiency innovation than eCommerce .
Assuming Walmart does not stop it ’ s eCommerce initiatives , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point when Walmarts fast-growing eCommerce outweighs it ’ s in-store sales.. and given the scenarios above , it will be obvious to more people that this is happening in the next few years when that 8 % of total sales continues to move higher and higher .
Seeing the massive , utterly massive opportunity here for Walmart stakeholders on the table from the upside of 40 % + compounding eCommerce growth and the successful execution of a high margin online ecosystem of products – will Walmart be able to achieve that YoY exponential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or will they let us down ?
Strategically speaking – it doesn ’ t take a genius to see that Walmart should be deploying all of its available resources into an eCommerce growth story when Amazon has already paid the innovation tax and proved the concept and scale which can be achieved .
Walmart , if it wants to deliver value for shareholders , should be using its massive existing infrastructure to facilitate and replicate everything Amazon has proven works and is profitable in its successful eCommerce ecosystem , and beyond that , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in areas that leverage “ what only Walmart can do ” , for the eCommerce customer , with their existing unique assets & systems .
Not only is it very obvious that they should be pursuing this area of growth with full focus , it is painfully obvious that they should be doing it as quickly as possible , because once consumers have gotten used to that Amazon prime-membership , they will be harder and more expensive to pull back to Walmarts ecosystem .
While Walmart is uniquely positioned to overcome the value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loss leader offers only it can provide from it ’ s massive scale , it shouldn ’ t be waiting .
Walmart ’ s management team is intelligent and risk-averse , that ’ s how you get to Walmarts size , but the issue is that deferring these expensive and “ inefficient ” eCommerce investments and customer acquisition costs is that an eCommerce ecosystem will still be Walmarts absolutely biggest and best growth opportunity for the next couple decades… Strategically speaking , they not saving anything by moving slow… in fact they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Understanding the online opportunity Walmart has , Walmart should not be leaving anything off the table in related to its spending to grow it ’ s eCommerce user-base and ecosystem .
40 % + yearly eCommerce growth is achievable for Walmart… Amazon has done it during many years in it ’ s growth between 2006-2019 , before they had any of the customer recognition or infrastructure Walmart has today .
Also , Walmart will do 40 % + so this year , tracking for 44 % + growth for this year while they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth strategy… This is the “ idiot-proof ” tail-wind Covid-world can provide , and which is why Walmart is a wolf .
The man in-charge of Walmarts eCommerce business is Marc Lore .
Sort-of .
He ’ s in-charge but not fully in-charge .
In an effort to understand Walmarts likelyhood of delivering value in the coming years for investors , we need to understand how Marc is navigating Walmart through it ’ s eCommerce strategy , and how well that area is moving ahead .
Marc ’ s history is beyond the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ s certainly proven himself extremely capable before hopping on-board as a Walmart executive with multiple big eCommerce growth stories and successes under his belt .
One of those successes , was his business Jet.com , which Walmart purchased for 3.3 Billion in 2016 , and as part of sale conditions also acquired Marc who would take the helm and position Walmart for eCommerce growth for 5 years , maybe more .
He was hired onto Walmart through that acquisition , and if we look at 2016 until now , Walmart has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the traction we are seeing now for Walmart in their eCommerce initiatives has been a result of folding Jet.com ’ s team into pushing Walmart ahead .
Despite the progress he has made for Walmart , we really need to figure out how he stacks up to the competition , and this sit down with Marc and Recode ’ s Jason Del Rey is basically a psychological window into the suffering soul of a man that should be leading Walmart to rapid exponential growth , but seems hindered in his ability by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ inefficiently ” ( but as is necessary for blitzscaling eCommerce growth ) , and comprehensively .
Marc ’ s early strategy was to grow with major acquisitions / partnerships to fill out WMT ’ s online portfolio .
Seems WMT executives have blocked these and are having him develop in-house incubated projects ( Slow ) He ’ s clearly discouraged with how many approvals he needs and projects he can push forward… executives are not allowing him to push at the speed he wants to innovate with .
You ’ re welcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own impressions , but it certainly seems like , in contrast to Amazon , where 12 exciting , high-margin and complimentary innovations are all taking place with full force on the same time horizon , Walmart leadership is afraid of burn-rate , afraid of anything “ wasteful ” and are not correctly evaluating the massive return on capital they could achieve with aggressive eCommerce spending .
The environment seems too cautious for this guy to do his thing and make stakeholders money .
The philosophy of those above him is not showing any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blitzscaling Walmarts eCommerce or that they are properly evaluating the upside potential compared to the in-store , which is strange , because Amazon is proof of concept and has shown that if they get customers online they will get better margins .
Digital products take no money to deliver and are wildly profitable .
As a narrative of Walmarts online growth story , I can ’ t think of anything more unpleasant than : “ Entrepreneurial maverick with a track record of home-runs Marc Lore unable to make decisive , timely , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s size and operating margin in 10 years due to resistance from the committee of “ the-old-guard ” leadership ” .
Internally , it seems off-base that Walmart continues to pay dividends to shareholders and is recording that 15 Billion on the balance sheet as profit , instead of re-investing it in online growth , as though that decision is “ helping it ’ s stakeholders get value ” .
Walmart should be deploying capital with less focus on “ efficiency ” and more focus on growth , allocating much more of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and execute what Amazon has proven works .
I can ’ t think of any possible valid analysis that would indicate that Walmart ’ s best growth opportunity for the next 20 years is anything other than an eCommerce ecosystem… and the longer they defer the investment the more expensive it will be to pull the marketshare back from other platforms like Amazon .
For the Walmart investor here what is scary is that Marc , ( or whoever fills his shoes eventually ) seems to be viewed as a minor part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision makers don ’ t yet seem to want to grant the power and decision making authority the CEO of that division should wield considering how the execution there is the going to move Walmart billions of dollars up or down , and psychologically speaking that makes sense .
“ He ’ s only running 8 % of the business ” is probably an easy misconception to make as a Walmart executive .
Marc has laid some very positive groundwork on some very positive things for Walmart , but until that philosophy changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own worst enemy to share-holder value .
The competitive landscape is with them , Covid-19 is with them , consumer shopping habits are with them… they are holding themselves back .
Despite this somewhat critical analysis on Walmarts comprehension of it ’ s future – I don ’ t want to be overly harsh on them or on Walmarts prospects .
Risk averse executives who calculate , focus on margin and avoid mis-steps at all costs is how Walmart got it ’ s crown and massive size to begin with .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % growth for it ’ s eCommerce sales .
Perhaps they will under-invest , under-perform internally with restrictions on Mavericks like Marc who can move the needle for them , and yet still slowly adjust and re-prioritize their focus and capital allocation over the next few years .
Maybe a more optimistic outlook is that – Walmarts eCommerce potential can ( and probably still will ) over deliver on expectations even with executive management guiding Walmart away from its best use of capital with their old school philosophy .
A rising eCommerce tide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power and established logistics , especially when you ’ ve got the customer trust already in-place .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by terryprints
For this year, 2020, Walmart is set-up to do about 480 Billion in in-store sales, and 41 Billion in eCommerce sales.
As of now, only 8% of Walmarts total sales are coming from the eCommerce channel.
If you are an investor considering Walmart and properly are evaluating Walmarts eCommerce upside potential, then here’s one of the limiting thoughts you’ve probably had:
“Even if I bet on Walmart, how much will a meteoric rise in eCommerce sales be weighed down by Walmart’s established but “boring” brick and mortal sales? Stock value won’t ever capitulate the way a tech company can with so much of it’s market cap locked into the in-store sales where PE ratios are low”
Looking at the growth scenarios laid out below, their in-store sales should not be as big of a negative ‘gut-check’ analysis would have you believe.

If Walmart can execute the eCommerce growth story, then not only does Walmarts eCommerce have the potential to out-size all of it’s current total yearly in-stores sales within a decade, but also massive overweight expectations for it’s Market-cap because analysts will be forced to re-evaluate the type of holding Walmart is entirely.
Walmart will not be “defensive-retail” when that shift begins to happen and it’s PE multiple will move accordingly. If it’s eCommerce deliveries on a successful growth story, it’s value will justify a much higher multiple of it’s earnings.

So – what are some potential out-comes for Walmarts eCommerce sales trajectory in the next few years?
If Walmarts eCommerce division grows at an optimistic consistent 40% YoY increase, Walmarts eCommerce total gross sales will eclipse the sales of its current in-store business for this year in less than 8 years.
In-store Walmart sales this year are set to be 480 Billion~
eCommerce 2020 set to be 41 Billion and grows to 432.40 Billion in 7 years..
8 years is a long time, but that is massive upside potential and growth.

At a more conservative growth rate of only 25% YoY eCommerce sales, Walmarts eCommerce sales will eclipse its current in-store business for this year in less than 11 years.
Again, in-store Walmart sales this year are set to be 480 Billion~
eCommerce 2020 set to be 41 Billion and grows to 477.30 Billion in 11 years, year 12 it’s 596.63 Billion.
Walmarts in-store business does not have the same growth potential as online.
In-store sales growth outpaces inflation slightly, but it’s subject to so many more head-winds, low-margin products, and lack of automation/efficiency innovation than eCommerce.
Assuming Walmart does not stop it’s eCommerce initiatives, there will at some point be an intersection point when Walmarts fast-growing eCommerce outweighs it’s in-store sales.. and given the scenarios above, it will be obvious to more people that this is happening in the next few years when that 8% of total sales continues to move higher and higher.

Seeing the massive, utterly massive opportunity here for Walmart stakeholders on the table from the upside of 40%+ compounding eCommerce growth and the successful execution of a high margin online ecosystem of products – will Walmart be able to achieve that YoY exponential growth investors are so fond of, or will they let us down?

Strategically speaking – it doesn’t take a genius to see that Walmart should be deploying all of its available resources into an eCommerce growth story when Amazon has already paid the innovation tax and proved the concept and scale which can be achieved.
Walmart, if it wants to deliver value for shareholders, should be using its massive existing infrastructure to facilitate and replicate everything Amazon has proven works and is profitable in its successful eCommerce ecosystem, and beyond that, it should be developing ahead of Amazon in areas that leverage “what only Walmart can do”, for the eCommerce customer, with their existing unique assets & systems.

Not only is it very obvious that they should be pursuing this area of growth with full focus, it is painfully obvious that they should be doing it as quickly as possible, because once consumers have gotten used to that Amazon prime-membership, they will be harder and more expensive to pull back to Walmarts ecosystem.
While Walmart is uniquely positioned to overcome the value proposition there with media partnerships, and loss leader offers only it can provide from it’s massive scale, it shouldn’t be waiting.

Walmart’s management team is intelligent and risk-averse, that’s how you get to Walmarts size, but the issue is that deferring these expensive and “inefficient” eCommerce investments and customer acquisition costs is that an eCommerce ecosystem will still be Walmarts absolutely biggest and best growth opportunity for the next couple decades…
Strategically speaking, they not saving anything by moving slow… in fact they are piles burning stakeholder money this way.

Understanding the online opportunity Walmart has, Walmart should not be leaving anything off the table in related to its spending to grow it’s eCommerce user-base and ecosystem.
40%+ yearly eCommerce growth is achievable for Walmart… Amazon has done it during many years in it’s growth between 2006-2019, before they had any of the customer recognition or infrastructure Walmart has today.
Also, Walmart will do 40%+ so this year, tracking for 44%+ growth for this year while they are sitting on un-invested cash and unambitious growth strategy…
This is the “idiot-proof” tail-wind Covid-world can provide, and which is why Walmart is a wolf.

What is holding Walmarts exponential eCommerce growth story back?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The man in-charge of Walmarts eCommerce business is Marc Lore. Sort-of. He’s in-charge but not fully in-charge.
In an effort to understand Walmarts likelyhood of delivering value in the coming years for investors, we need to understand how Marc is navigating Walmart through it’s eCommerce strategy, and how well that area is moving ahead.
Marc’s history is beyond the scope of this DD post, but he’s certainly proven himself extremely capable before hopping on-board as a Walmart executive with multiple big eCommerce growth stories and successes under his belt.
One of those successes, was his business Jet.com, which Walmart purchased for 3.3 Billion in 2016, and as part of sale conditions also acquired Marc who would take the helm and position Walmart for eCommerce growth for 5 years, maybe more.
He was hired onto Walmart through that acquisition, and if we look at 2016 until now, Walmart has made progress with him around. Much of the traction we are seeing now for Walmart in their eCommerce initiatives has been a result of folding Jet.com’s team into pushing Walmart ahead.

Despite the progress he has made for Walmart, we really need to figure out how he stacks up to the competition, and this sit down with Marc and Recode’s Jason Del Rey is basically a psychological window into the suffering soul of a man that should be leading Walmart to rapid exponential growth, but seems hindered in his ability by Walmart corporate leadership to act decisively, “inefficiently” (but as is necessary for blitzscaling eCommerce growth), and comprehensively.

Points of note:
About 18 minutes in-
Marc’s early strategy was to grow with major acquisitions / partnerships to fill out WMT’s online portfolio.
Seems WMT executives have blocked these and are having him develop in-house incubated projects (Slow)
About 25:30 minutes in-
He’s clearly discouraged with how many approvals he needs and projects he can push forward… executives are not allowing him to push at the speed he wants to innovate with.

General impressions –
You’re welcome to watch it yourself, make your own impressions, but it certainly seems like, in contrast to Amazon, where 12 exciting, high-margin and complimentary innovations are all taking place with full force on the same time horizon, Walmart leadership is afraid of burn-rate, afraid of anything “wasteful” and are not correctly evaluating the massive return on capital they could achieve with aggressive eCommerce spending.
The environment seems too cautious for this guy to do his thing and make stakeholders money. The philosophy of those above him is not showing any indications they see the true merit in blitzscaling Walmarts eCommerce or that they are properly evaluating the upside potential compared to the in-store, which is strange, because Amazon is proof of concept and has shown that if they get customers online they will get better margins. Digital products take no money to deliver and are wildly profitable.

As a narrative of Walmarts online growth story, I can’t think of anything more unpleasant than:
“Entrepreneurial maverick with a track record of home-runs Marc Lore unable to make decisive, timely, and massively profitable decisions which can double Walmart’s size and operating margin in 10 years due to resistance from the committee of “the-old-guard” leadership”.
Internally, it seems off-base that Walmart continues to pay dividends to shareholders and is recording that 15 Billion on the balance sheet as profit, instead of re-investing it in online growth, as though that decision is “helping it’s stakeholders get value”.
Walmart should be deploying capital with less focus on “efficiency” and more focus on growth, allocating much more of it for guys like Marc to deploy and execute what Amazon has proven works.
I can’t think of any possible valid analysis that would indicate that Walmart’s best growth opportunity for the next 20 years is anything other than an eCommerce ecosystem… and the longer they defer the investment the more expensive it will be to pull the marketshare back from other platforms like Amazon.

For the Walmart investor here what is scary is that Marc, (or whoever fills his shoes eventually) seems to be viewed as a minor part of Walmarts story.
“The-old-guard” of decision makers don’t yet seem to want to grant the power and decision making authority the CEO of that division should wield considering how the execution there is the going to move Walmart billions of dollars up or down, and psychologically speaking that makes sense.
“He’s only running 8% of the business” is probably an easy misconception to make as a Walmart executive.

Marc has laid some very positive groundwork on some very positive things for Walmart, but until that philosophy changes, Walmart will be it’s own worst enemy to share-holder value.
The competitive landscape is with them, Covid-19 is with them, consumer shopping habits are with them… they are holding themselves back.

Despite this somewhat critical analysis on Walmarts comprehension of it’s future – I don’t want to be overly harsh on them or on Walmarts prospects.

Risk averse executives who calculate, focus on margin and avoid mis-steps at all costs is how Walmart got it’s crown and massive size to begin with.
In the end, this year is a 40+% growth for it’s eCommerce sales.
Perhaps they will under-invest, under-perform internally with restrictions on Mavericks like Marc who can move the needle for them, and yet still slowly adjust and re-prioritize their focus and capital allocation over the next few years.

Maybe a more optimistic outlook is that – Walmarts eCommerce potential can (and probably still will) over deliver on expectations even with executive management guiding Walmart away from its best use of capital with their old school philosophy.
A rising eCommerce tide will deliver for the incumbents with buying power and established logistics, especially when you’ve got the customer trust already in-place.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-21--Dollar Tug of War Update: DXY Falls Below Near Term Support Levels, March 2020 Support Levels Next

Jason talks about how the US Dollar Index ( DXY ) has now fallen below key near term support levels @ @ @ @ @

Jason talks about how the US Dollar Index (DXY) has now fallen below key near term support levels of 96.39 and 95.96.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--KARMA: The New York Times Threatens To Dox Tucker Carlson – “Army Of Conservatives” Dox The Times Re

KARMA: The New York Times Threatens To Dox Tucker Carlson – “Army Of Conservatives” Dox The Times Reporter – NYT Decides That Was A Bad Idea

Tucker responds to intrusive reporting by New York Times Tucker Carlson claimed the New York Times planned to expose his @ @ @ @ @ doxed the reporter .
On Monday night , Fox News host Tucker Carlson made a @ @ @ @ @ York Times , he said , was trying to endanger him and his family by @ @ @ @ @ an upcoming story .
As he lambasted the newspaper on-air , Carlson suggested that his @ @ @ @ @ home addresses of the reporter and Times editors .
Within hours , an army of @ @ @ @ @ posting the address and personal information of the reporter Carlson identified as the story ’ @ @ @ @ @ people to harass the reporter .

Tucker responds to intrusive reporting by New York Times
Tucker Carlson claimed the New York Times planned to expose his address. Then his fans doxed the reporter.
On Monday night, Fox News host Tucker Carlson made a surprising accusation: the New York Times, he said, was trying to endanger him and his family by revealing where they live in an upcoming story. As he lambasted the newspaper on-air, Carlson suggested that his prime-time show could expose the home addresses of the reporter and Times editors.
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Within hours, an army of conservative Twitter accounts started publicly posting the address and personal information of the reporter Carlson identified as the story’s writer. Many encouraged people to harass the reporter.
www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Tucker-Carlson-claimed-the-New-York-Times-planned-15422359.php
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--Connecticut public health laboratory confirms nationwide coronavirus tests are flawed, creating huge

Connecticut public health laboratory confirms nationwide coronavirus tests are flawed, creating huge spike in false positives

( Natural News ) A public health laboratory in the state of Connecticut has determined that Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) tests being administered all across the country are fundamentally flawed , which is part of the reason why the nation is now seeing a massive spike in supposed new infections .
The error was identified in the testing platform manufactured by a company known as Thermo Fisher Scientific , which provides Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) tests to many different commercial laboratories across the U.S .
In Connecticut alone , this flawed test has resulted in at least 90 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and assisted care facilities , testing positive for the virus when they are actually healthy and normal .
It was employees at Connecticut ’ s official state laboratory that first discovered the flaw and brought it to the public ’ s attention .
Their hope is that the problem can be quickly rectified , allowing clinics all over the country that have been using the faulty test to switch to something else , as well as to account for and discard any erroneous data that came from its use .
Dr. Deidre S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health commissioner , has indicated that her agency is reaching out to labs all across her state to determine how many of them have been using the flawed test .
Josh Geballe , Governor Ned Lamont ’ s chief operating officer , is also reaching out to all clinicians who have tested people with the flawed test to find out who was tested , where they live , and what results were gathered .
“ In a state like ours , which is using large-scale , intense testing to keep down transmission , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” admitted Dr. Albert Ko , a Yale University epidemiologist and co-chair of Gov .
Lamont ’ s reopening advisory committee , about the situation .
“ And that ’ s going to happen even in the best of tests because none of them are 100 percent positive , ” he added , noting that the scientists who uncovered the flaw deserve “ a shout-out ” for the contributions in bringing much-needed scrutiny to the testing process .
How many other coronavirus testing kits are also producing false positives ?
According to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DPH ) , the affected patients it has already identified were all tested with the faulty tests between June 15 and July 17 .
Of the 144 people that supposedly tested positive , 90 of them turned out to be false positives , which have since been reported to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) .
In a written statement , DPH indicated that it does not yet know the precise reason why the tests are creating false positives , but that it is currently being investigated .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ background information ” on previously collected specimens that something was amiss , and that “ these specimens shouldn ’ t have been reported as positive , ” to quote DPH scientists Dr. Jafar Razeq .
It has also been revealed that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) had been collecting and reporting gobs of false positives from many other states before it was revealed that the agency was “ mistakenly ” perpetuating fake science .
In Connecticut , there are now more than 48,000 reported positive cases of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though it remains unclear how many of these might be false positives .
Even so , this figure reflects a 0.6 positivity rate in the state , which is among the lowest in the country .
Connecticut has also implemented new quarantine rules for out-of-state travelers who visit the area , requiring them to fill out online travel health forms and stay isolated for at least 14 days .
Those who are caught violating the order could face a fine of $ 1,000 .
More related news stories about the Wuhan coronavirus ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by: Ethan Huff
(Natural News) A public health laboratory in the state of Connecticut has determined that Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) tests being administered all across the country are fundamentally flawed, which is part of the reason why the nation is now seeing a massive spike in supposed new infections.
The error was identified in the testing platform manufactured by a company known as Thermo Fisher Scientific, which provides Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) tests to many different commercial laboratories across the U.S. In Connecticut alone, this flawed test has resulted in at least 90 people, mostly living in nursing homes and assisted care facilities, testing positive for the virus when they are actually healthy and normal.
It was employees at Connecticut’s official state laboratory that first discovered the flaw and brought it to the public’s attention. Their hope is that the problem can be quickly rectified, allowing clinics all over the country that have been using the faulty test to switch to something else, as well as to account for and discard any erroneous data that came from its use.
Dr. Deidre S. Gifford, Connecticut’s acting public health commissioner, has indicated that her agency is reaching out to labs all across her state to determine how many of them have been using the flawed test. Josh Geballe, Governor Ned Lamont’s chief operating officer, is also reaching out to all clinicians who have tested people with the flawed test to find out who was tested, where they live, and what results were gathered.
“In a state like ours, which is using large-scale, intense testing to keep down transmission, we are going to have false positives,” admitted Dr. Albert Ko, a Yale University epidemiologist and co-chair of Gov. Lamont’s reopening advisory committee, about the situation.
“And that’s going to happen even in the best of tests because none of them are 100 percent positive,” he added, noting that the scientists who uncovered the flaw deserve “a shout-out” for the contributions in bringing much-needed scrutiny to the testing process.
How many other coronavirus testing kits are also producing false positives?
According to the Connecticut Department of Public Health (DPH), the affected patients it has already identified were all tested with the faulty tests between June 15 and July 17. Of the 144 people that supposedly tested positive, 90 of them turned out to be false positives, which have since been reported to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In a written statement, DPH indicated that it does not yet know the precise reason why the tests are creating false positives, but that it is currently being investigated. It was merely identified during an analysis of “background information” on previously collected specimens that something was amiss, and that “these specimens shouldn’t have been reported as positive,” to quote DPH scientists Dr. Jafar Razeq.
It has also been revealed that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had been collecting and reporting gobs of false positives from many other states before it was revealed that the agency was “mistakenly” perpetuating fake science.
In Connecticut, there are now more than 48,000 reported positive cases of the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), though it remains unclear how many of these might be false positives. Even so, this figure reflects a 0.6 positivity rate in the state, which is among the lowest in the country.
Connecticut has also implemented new quarantine rules for out-of-state travelers who visit the area, requiring them to fill out online travel health forms and stay isolated for at least 14 days. Those who are caught violating the order could face a fine of $1,000.
More related news stories about the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) are available at Pandemic.news.
Sources for this article include:
WashingtonTimes.com
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-22--PR Tech: New Trend Blooming on The Media Market

As businesses are starting to introduce more tools for automating routine tasks , an increasing number of specialists from various industries are concerned that they will lose in the competition with new technologies .
It is possible that in ten years time , not only librarians , dispatchers , accountants and secretaries will have to look for new jobs , but even the representatives of professions considered to be creative .
And that includes journalists , copywriters and translators .
The main reason for such changes in the global labor market is the marshalling technological revolution and the automation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that artificial intelligence ( AI ) will be able to successfully perform the work of SEO copywriters and junior PR specialists in the near future .
The progress already made in PR technologies allows using AI in the most reputable magazines around the world .
By using quantitative data analysis techniques and the Amazon AWS cloud service , Wordsmith ’ s artificial intelligence can write news for the Associated Press based on a company ’ s financial statements .
According to the agency ’ s estimates , this can save up to 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Science developed a similar technology called Quill that Forbes has already applied .
Five years ago , Chris Hammond , the founder of Narrative Science , said that a robot writer analyzing a large amount of data , for example , about baseball games , is able to mimic the simple style of sports reporters and produce thousands of texts almost instantly .
Bloomberg also uses a proprietary AI-powered system called Cyborg that has already prepared and published thousands of financial articles .
The Heliograf solution , which was tested by another media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performed well in its coverage of the US presidential election by creating dedicated newsletters .
Automated solutions are already being used in the PR industry as well , greatly assisting specialists in their line of work .
It is impossible to imagine performing regular PR tasks without services such as HARO ( Help A Reporter Out ) , Cision PR Newswire , PRNews.io and others .
HARO is a journalistic query service whose subscribers receive daily requests from journalists writing for a wide variety of magazines .
A well-crafted answer submitted as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ published in any media outlet , be it a mainstream outlet such as Forbes or a local newspaper .
This is a clear example of how the work of both journalists and PR specialists can be streamlined and made more effective .
Another automated solution is PR Newswire , an electronic press release distribution service used by many companies around the world .
The phrase “ post a press release in one click ” may well be the motto of the service .
More so , HARO and PR Newswire are both the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ press release mailings and contacts between journalists and PR specialists is not the only solution set offered for the PR tech market .
Some companies have gone beyond by offering a one-stop-shop for those seeking to do without PR agencies and copywriters .
For instance , PRnews.io developed the world ’ s first online store of sponsored content with fixed prices .
It is an online , all-inclusive service that allows publishing content in media around the world , which allows its users to find an online magazine about startups in Georgia and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just one click .
The solution has become so cost and time-effective that many PR companies use the service as a catalogue of online publications when looking for media websites in new regions .
PRNEWS.IO says the company ’ s turnover exceeded 1.7 million euros in 2019 , which is 30 % more than in 2018 .
The forecast for 2020 exceeds 2.6 million euros .
Recently , the project team announced the issuance of convertible bonds .
The bonds are considered to be the most successful type of securities for private investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technologies .
The PR and marketing technology market continues to grow despite geopolitical events and the global pandemic .
Analysts predict that in 2020 , the global advertising industry will grow to $ 85.5 billion .
PR technologies are likely to continue their development as an independent offshoot of the global advertising market in light of such heightened interest to their value offering .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

As businesses are starting to introduce more tools for automating routine tasks, an increasing number of specialists from various industries are concerned that they will lose in the competition with new technologies.
It is possible that in ten years time, not only librarians, dispatchers, accountants and secretaries will have to look for new jobs, but even the representatives of professions considered to be creative. And that includes journalists, copywriters and translators.
The main reason for such changes in the global labor market is the marshalling technological revolution and the automation of many routine processes. Researchers are noting that artificial intelligence (AI) will be able to successfully perform the work of SEO copywriters and junior PR specialists in the near future. The progress already made in PR technologies allows using AI in the most reputable magazines around the world.
PR Tech: Applying AI to World Famous Magazines
By using quantitative data analysis techniques and the Amazon AWS cloud service, Wordsmith’s artificial intelligence can write news for the Associated Press based on a company’s financial statements. According to the agency’s estimates, this can save up to 20% of journalists’ time.
Narrative Science developed a similar technology called Quill that Forbes has already applied. Five years ago, Chris Hammond, the founder of Narrative Science, said that a robot writer analyzing a large amount of data, for example, about baseball games, is able to mimic the simple style of sports reporters and produce thousands of texts almost instantly.
Bloomberg also uses a proprietary AI-powered system called Cyborg that has already prepared and published thousands of financial articles. The Heliograf solution, which was tested by another media giant – the Washington Post – has performed well in its coverage of the US presidential election by creating dedicated newsletters.
Popular Automation for PR Specialists
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Automated solutions are already being used in the PR industry as well, greatly assisting specialists in their line of work. It is impossible to imagine performing regular PR tasks without services such as HARO (Help A Reporter Out), Cision PR Newswire, PRNews.io and others.
HARO is a journalistic query service whose subscribers receive daily requests from journalists writing for a wide variety of magazines. A well-crafted answer submitted as a reply to such a request can be published in any media outlet, be it a mainstream outlet such as Forbes or a local newspaper. This is a clear example of how the work of both journalists and PR specialists can be streamlined and made more effective.
Another automated solution is PR Newswire, an electronic press release distribution service used by many companies around the world. The phrase “post a press release in one click” may well be the motto of the service. More so, HARO and PR Newswire are both the creations of Cision.
The automation of press release mailings and contacts between journalists and PR specialists is not the only solution set offered for the PR tech market. Some companies have gone beyond by offering a one-stop-shop for those seeking to do without PR agencies and copywriters. For instance, PRnews.io developed the world’s first online store of sponsored content with fixed prices. It is an online, all-inclusive service that allows publishing content in media around the world, which allows its users to find an online magazine about startups in Georgia and publish the content contained in it in just one click. The solution has become so cost and time-effective that many PR companies use the service as a catalogue of online publications when looking for media websites in new regions.
PRNEWS.IO says the company’s turnover exceeded 1.7 million euros in 2019, which is 30% more than in 2018. The forecast for 2020 exceeds 2.6 million euros. Recently, the project team announced the issuance of convertible bonds. The bonds are considered to be the most successful type of securities for private investors valuing the market potential of modern PR technologies.
The PR and marketing technology market continues to grow despite geopolitical events and the global pandemic. Analysts predict that in 2020, the global advertising industry will grow to $85.5 billion. PR technologies are likely to continue their development as an independent offshoot of the global advertising market in light of such heightened interest to their value offering.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.