investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--The Sum of All Broken Promises

The Sum of All Broken Promises

The restless public , cooped up and idled in springtime ’ s flowering , have watched Wall Street doing just fine while they see the approaching sunset of their own much more modest Paycheck Protection Program and coronavirus relief checks .
Late last week , the Dow Jones shot up 455 points the same day that the government announced the worst unemployment numbers since the lows of the Great Depression .
Are there two economies in this country ?
One for people who expect to work for pay , and another for bankers who play shady games with money and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t pan out ?
Kind of looks like it , a little bit .
That tangled pile of cognitive dissonance is liable to catch fire soon like an overactive compost heap as the promised opening-up of America commences and tens of millions of able adults discover that their old jobs , vocations ( and paychecks ! )
will never re-open , not to mention health care plans and pensions .
God help us if the stock markets are still chugging up when that recognition sweeps the land .
And why won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve keeps stuffing bales of dollars into Wall Street ’ s boilers ?
Jay Powell and his crew of monomaniacs apparently believe that bolstering the indexes is the sole signifier of a healthy system , and they ’ ve turned early adapters to Modern Monetary Theory ( MMT ) , the idea that government can print as much money as it feels like to keep the wheels of activity turning ( or , at least , the appearance of activity ) .
In just two months , they ’ ve churned out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hundred-plus years of the USA ’ s national debt — and , of course , new money is new debt because under our currency regime money is loaned into existence .
Well , one reason the markets may not keep chugging is that money is disappearing into the ol ’ black hole of extinction even faster than the Fed can enter keystrokes that magically represent new money .
The reason : if , in fact , money is loaned into existence , it is defaulted out of existence when the loans are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s what a loan is : money advanced on a promise to be paid back , generally at interest , interest representing the time-value of money , that is , the duration of the loan .
Do you have any idea how many loans are not being paid back , and may now never be paid back ?
Start with houses .
63 percent of homeowners pay a mortgage ( a loan ) every month .
The national average outstanding mortgage debt is $ 148,000 .
Total mortgage debt is $ 10.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roughly 260 million passenger vehicles registered in America , with upward of 100 million of them bought on loans that are still active , amounting to $ 1.2 trillion , enough to buy 53 million Ford Fusions at $ 23,000 each .
Now credit card debt : total for the US is $ 3.9 trillion with an average carried balance of $ 9,333 .
Meanwhile , 45 percent of adult Americans have no savings .
As Senator Everett Dirksen ( D-Ill ) once quipped during a senate budget battle , “ A billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon , you ’ re talking real money.
” Consider that a trillion is a thousand billion ( and a billion is a thousand million ) .
In an ordinary reality , a reality-based reality , that is , with reality-based money , that would be a lot of money ( and a lot of debt ) !
It ’ s hard to project an exact figure , but with over 20 percent of the US work-force idle , with no income , there ’ s liable to be a lot of debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , will never be paid back , and a lot of money headed into extinction .
That will translate into a lot of people with no money .
Until all that money they owed is finished not being paid back , and the new money that Fed is busy creating , with no relationship to the production of things of value , overcomes the old money that ’ s finished disappearing .
Then Americans will have plenty of money .
The catch is that the money will be worthless .
Thus , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no money ; or having lots of money that ’ s too worthless to buy anything .
So it goes .
Along with people ’ s hopes and dreams of a decent life .
What you see , then , is a nation , and a system , that has come to be based on broken promises .
That ’ s what the restless public will take away from this morass of statistics .
The discord will rapidly leave the statistical frame and take hold in the emotional frame , and that frame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , resentment , grievance , vengeance , feelings like that .
The sum of all broken promises is a broken social contract .
That ’ s the agreement that we will behave civilly in exchange for the liberty to go about our business — within clearly defined rules ( laws ) about what is legitimate business .
A broken social contract is exactly what all these machinations are leading up to .
Hence , the appearances of the state — the system and the people who run it — become more and more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the fake candidacy of Joe Biden , a man too far gone in age and mind to be president , with a long slime-trail of family money-grubbing in and around his official offices , and now an old sexual molestation charge against him .
Who do the Democrats think they ’ re kidding with this ?
The coronavirus gave them an excuse to stuff Joe in a closet for two months , but can they keep hiding him there after the grand opening-up ?
Will Wall Street and its errand boys in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hoodoo , enriching shareholders , hedge funders , and corporate execs while everybody else hits the red-line of hunger and outrage ?
Will Mr. Trump do what he suggested way back on the campaign trail in 2016 and declare a national bankruptcy ?
There is , after all , a difference between bankruptcy and national insurrection .
Bankruptcy , at least , holds the promise of a work-out .
Financial work-outs are generally painful , but orderly .
That could make all the difference .

via Jim Kunstler
The restless public, cooped up and idled in springtime’s flowering, have watched Wall Street doing just fine while they see the approaching sunset of their own much more modest Paycheck Protection Program and coronavirus relief checks. Late last week, the Dow Jones shot up 455 points the same day that the government announced the worst unemployment numbers since the lows of the Great Depression. Are there two economies in this country? One for people who expect to work for pay, and another for bankers who play shady games with money and receive extravagant bailouts when their games don’t pan out?
Kind of looks like it, a little bit. That tangled pile of cognitive dissonance is liable to catch fire soon like an overactive compost heap as the promised opening-up of America commences and tens of millions of able adults discover that their old jobs, vocations (and paychecks!) will never re-open, not to mention health care plans and pensions. God help us if the stock markets are still chugging up when that recognition sweeps the land.
And why won’t the markets keep chugging if the Federal Reserve keeps stuffing bales of dollars into Wall Street’s boilers? Jay Powell and his crew of monomaniacs apparently believe that bolstering the indexes is the sole signifier of a healthy system, and they’ve turned early adapters to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the idea that government can print as much money as it feels like to keep the wheels of activity turning (or, at least, the appearance of activity). In just two months, they’ve churned out trillions, equal to the first two hundred-plus years of the USA’s national debt — and, of course, new money is new debt because under our currency regime money is loaned into existence.
Well, one reason the markets may not keep chugging is that money is disappearing into the ol’ black hole of extinction even faster than the Fed can enter keystrokes that magically represent new money. The reason: if, in fact, money is loaned into existence, it is defaulted out of existence when the loans are not paid back. After all, that’s what a loan is: money advanced on a promise to be paid back, generally at interest, interest representing the time-value of money, that is, the duration of the loan. Do you have any idea how many loans are not being paid back, and may now never be paid back?
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Start with houses. 63 percent of homeowners pay a mortgage (a loan) every month. The national average outstanding mortgage debt is $148,000. Total mortgage debt is $10.3 trillion. Now cars: There are roughly 260 million passenger vehicles registered in America, with upward of 100 million of them bought on loans that are still active, amounting to $1.2 trillion, enough to buy 53 million Ford Fusions at $23,000 each. Now credit card debt: total for the US is $3.9 trillion with an average carried balance of $9,333. Meanwhile, 45 percent of adult Americans have no savings.
As Senator Everett Dirksen (D-Ill) once quipped during a senate budget battle, “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you’re talking real money.” Consider that a trillion is a thousand billion (and a billion is a thousand million). In an ordinary reality, a reality-based reality, that is, with reality-based money, that would be a lot of money (and a lot of debt)! It’s hard to project an exact figure, but with over 20 percent of the US work-force idle, with no income, there’s liable to be a lot of debt that’s not being paid back, will never be paid back, and a lot of money headed into extinction. That will translate into a lot of people with no money. Until all that money they owed is finished not being paid back, and the new money that Fed is busy creating, with no relationship to the production of things of value, overcomes the old money that’s finished disappearing. Then Americans will have plenty of money. The catch is that the money will be worthless. Thus, the two ways of going broke: having no money; or having lots of money that’s too worthless to buy anything. So it goes.
Along with people’s hopes and dreams of a decent life. What you see, then, is a nation, and a system, that has come to be based on broken promises. That’s what the restless public will take away from this morass of statistics. The discord will rapidly leave the statistical frame and take hold in the emotional frame, and that frame will feature entirely negative emotion: rage, resentment, grievance, vengeance, feelings like that. The sum of all broken promises is a broken social contract. That’s the agreement that we will behave civilly in exchange for the liberty to go about our business — within clearly defined rules (laws) about what is legitimate business. A broken social contract is exactly what all these machinations are leading up to. Hence, the appearances of the state — the system and the people who run it — become more and more fantastically and transparently dishonest.
For instance, the fake candidacy of Joe Biden, a man too far gone in age and mind to be president, with a long slime-trail of family money-grubbing in and around his official offices, and now an old sexual molestation charge against him. Who do the Democrats think they’re kidding with this? The coronavirus gave them an excuse to stuff Joe in a closet for two months, but can they keep hiding him there after the grand opening-up?
Will Wall Street and its errand boys in the Federal Reserve keep working their shifty hoodoo, enriching shareholders, hedge funders, and corporate execs while everybody else hits the red-line of hunger and outrage? Will Mr. Trump do what he suggested way back on the campaign trail in 2016 and declare a national bankruptcy? There is, after all, a difference between bankruptcy and national insurrection. Bankruptcy, at least, holds the promise of a work-out. Financial work-outs are generally painful, but orderly. That could make all the difference.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--A Once-In-A-Lifetime Warnings For Oil Investors

Last week Royal Dutch Shell did something that would have been nearly unthinkable at the beginning of this year .
The company cut its dividend for the first time in 75 years .
This is remarkable considering the ups and downs of the oil industry of the past few decades .
Prices have collapsed many times since then , albeit we have never before seen a major benchmark turn negative .
But the COVID-19 pandemic has hit oil demand in an unprecedented way .
A few days ago , Bloomberg posted an article showing that energy demand has just dropped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ II ( which was the last time Shell cut its dividend ) .
That ’ s true , but in 1945 global oil demand had yet to reach 10 million barrels per day ( bpd ) .
In contrast , COVID-19 has sidelined an estimated 30 million bpd of oil demand .
Thus , the global oil industry is coping with the largest demand collapse , by far , in its history .
This demand collapse is impacting both refiners and oil producers .
Shell , as an integrated supermajor , is both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices , because they generally see margins expand .
That ’ s why an integrated oil company is usually more stable during the ups and downs of oil prices .
Upstream ( oil and gas production ) and downstream ( refining ) generally perform out of phase with each other , which helps balance out the cycles .
But the current collapse is hitting both ends — oil demand and finished product demand .
This creates one of the most challenging economic climates the integrated oil companies have faced — perhaps ever .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-thirds dividend cut , and now Shell has followed .
Chevron ’ s CEO has publicly stated that the company has enough cash on hand for now to maintain its dividend , but it will also come under increasing pressure as long as oil prices remain depressed .
The oil producers and the refiners will remain under the most pressure , while the integrated companies won ’ t be far behind .
The midstream sector — pipeline companies — is in somewhat better shape .
However , they are not immune to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sector , as Plains All American Pipeline showed when they recently announced a distribution cut .
I think investors should heed the underlying warning in Shell ’ s first dividend cut in most of our lifetimes .
Consider the pressure they must have been under not to break their 75-year streak .
That is evidence that they see the current crisis unlike others the oil industry has faced in recent decades .
They aren ’ t sure when oil demand will recover .
Thus , investors should be exceedingly cautious in the energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is especially true of oil-weighted producers , and refiners .
Safer bets are midstream companies and natural gas producers .
Natural gas producers have shown much greater strength than oil producers because associated natural gas production is falling as oil producers shut-in production .
That means natural gas supplies will continue to tighten in the months ahead .

By Robert Rapier
Last week Royal Dutch Shell did something that would have been nearly unthinkable at the beginning of this year. The company cut its dividend for the first time in 75 years. This is remarkable considering the ups and downs of the oil industry of the past few decades. Prices have collapsed many times since then, albeit we have never before seen a major benchmark turn negative.
But the COVID-19 pandemic has hit oil demand in an unprecedented way. A few days ago, Bloomberg posted an article showing that energy demand has just dropped by the largest percentage since World War II (which was the last time Shell cut its dividend).
That’s true, but in 1945 global oil demand had yet to reach 10 million barrels per day (bpd). In contrast, COVID-19 has sidelined an estimated 30 million bpd of oil demand. Thus, the global oil industry is coping with the largest demand collapse, by far, in its history.
This demand collapse is impacting both refiners and oil producers. Shell, as an integrated supermajor, is both. Refiners often benefit from falling oil prices, because they generally see margins expand. That’s why an integrated oil company is usually more stable during the ups and downs of oil prices. Upstream (oil and gas production) and downstream (refining) generally perform out of phase with each other, which helps balance out the cycles.
But the current collapse is hitting both ends — oil demand and finished product demand. This creates one of the most challenging economic climates the integrated oil companies have faced — perhaps ever.
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Norway’s Equinor previously announced a two-thirds dividend cut, and now Shell has followed. Chevron’s CEO has publicly stated that the company has enough cash on hand for now to maintain its dividend, but it will also come under increasing pressure as long as oil prices remain depressed.
The oil producers and the refiners will remain under the most pressure, while the integrated companies won’t be far behind. The midstream sector — pipeline companies — is in somewhat better shape. However, they are not immune to the forces impacting the rest of the energy sector, as Plains All American Pipeline showed when they recently announced a distribution cut.
I think investors should heed the underlying warning in Shell’s first dividend cut in most of our lifetimes. Consider the pressure they must have been under not to break their 75-year streak. That is evidence that they see the current crisis unlike others the oil industry has faced in recent decades. They aren’t sure when oil demand will recover.
Thus, investors should be exceedingly cautious in the energy sector for the foreseeable future. This is especially true of oil-weighted producers, and refiners.
Safer bets are midstream companies and natural gas producers. Natural gas producers have shown much greater strength than oil producers because associated natural gas production is falling as oil producers shut-in production. That means natural gas supplies will continue to tighten in the months ahead.
By Robert Rapier for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--Will Shale Giant Chesapeake Go Bankrupt?

U.S. shale gas pioneer Chesapeake Energy said on Monday it was evaluating a Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection reorganization—along with other options–as the low oil and gas prices weigh heavily on its finances and substantial outstanding debt .
Chesapeake Energy—which helped propel the shale gas revolution in the late 2000s with leading positions in the Marcellus , Barnett , and Haynesville shale basins—is now facing tough times trying to heal its balance sheet , on which US $ 9.7 billion in total debt weighs .
Even before the price crash in March 2020 , the company had warned in November that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raise “ substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.
” Chesapeake Energy had removed the ‘ going concern ’ warning in the annual report for 2019 in February , but now the warning is back to its filing with the SEC , and Chesapeake ( NYSE : CHK ) shares slumped by 3.54 percent in pre-market trade on Monday .
The company said today that “ Based on our current forecast , we do not expect to be in compliance with our financial covenants beginning in the fourth quarter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see continued volatility in oil and natural gas prices for the foreseeable future , and such volatility , combined with the current depressed prices , has impacted and is expected to continue to adversely impact our business , ” Chesapeake Energy said .
On Friday , Chesapeake Energy said that it had revised its compensation structure and performance metrics after deciding , together with advisors , that they would “ not be effective in motivating and incentivizing the Company ’ s workforce.
” Chesapeake pre-paid 21 senior executives and named executive officers a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which they waived their participation in the company ’ s 2020 annual bonus plan and waived their rights to all equity compensation awards with respect to 2020 .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
U.S. shale gas pioneer Chesapeake Energy said on Monday it was evaluating a Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection reorganization—along with other options–as the low oil and gas prices weigh heavily on its finances and substantial outstanding debt.
Chesapeake Energy—which helped propel the shale gas revolution in the late 2000s with leading positions in the Marcellus, Barnett, and Haynesville shale basins—is now facing tough times trying to heal its balance sheet, on which US$9.7 billion in total debt weighs. Even before the price crash in March 2020, the company had warned in November that the depressed oil and natural gas prices raise “substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.”
Chesapeake Energy had removed the ‘going concern’ warning in the annual report for 2019 in February, but now the warning is back to its filing with the SEC, and Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK) shares slumped by 3.54 percent in pre-market trade on Monday.
The company said today that “Based on our current forecast, we do not expect to be in compliance with our financial covenants beginning in the fourth quarter of 2020.”
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“We expect to see continued volatility in oil and natural gas prices for the foreseeable future, and such volatility, combined with the current depressed prices, has impacted and is expected to continue to adversely impact our business,” Chesapeake Energy said.
On Friday, Chesapeake Energy said that it had revised its compensation structure and performance metrics after deciding, together with advisors, that they would “not be effective in motivating and incentivizing the Company’s workforce.”
Chesapeake pre-paid 21 senior executives and named executive officers a total of $25 million, for which they waived their participation in the company’s 2020 annual bonus plan and waived their rights to all equity compensation awards with respect to 2020.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--Saudis Arabia Triples its Taxes – The Hunt is On!

The Saudis Arabia has tripled its taxes from 5 % to 15 % on the back of this Coronavirus .
This is a country now suffering from the collapse in oil demand and prices .
Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz of the Socialists in Germany ( SPD ) is already advocating “ solidarity ” to convince the rich to turnover their assets to the country .
He argues that citizens who “ earn very , very much should make a slightly higher contribution.
” Behind closed doors , he wants to raise income taxes in Germany to 70 % !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ impose what are known as inventory taxes regardless of whether a business makes a profit at all .
In this coronavirus world , these states have shut down the economy , but businesses are taxed on having inventory which in this environment they were prohibited to sell .
This will simply add to the burden of small businesses struggling to stay afloat thanks to these political decisions to close the economy .
We are looking at a wholesale rise in taxation with no regard for the economic consequences on a global scale .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ come true !

by Martin Armstrong
The Saudis Arabia has tripled its taxes from 5% to 15% on the back of this Coronavirus. This is a country now suffering from the collapse in oil demand and prices.
Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz of the Socialists in Germany (SPD) is already advocating “solidarity” to convince the rich to turnover their assets to the country. He argues that citizens who “earn very, very much should make a slightly higher contribution.” Behind closed doors, he wants to raise income taxes in Germany to 70%!
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Believe it or not, some states impose what are known as inventory taxes regardless of whether a business makes a profit at all. In this coronavirus world, these states have shut down the economy, but businesses are taxed on having inventory which in this environment they were prohibited to sell. This will simply add to the burden of small businesses struggling to stay afloat thanks to these political decisions to close the economy.
We are looking at a wholesale rise in taxation with no regard for the economic consequences on a global scale. This is the socialist’s dream come true!


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--A brief history of the last crisis

A brief history of the last crisis

The last time the economy blew up was back in 2008 .
Most of our readers probably remember it– the global financial system almost collapsed .
Just prior to the 2008 crisis , housing was in a major , worldwide bubble .
Central banks around the world had cut interest rates to near-zero levels , making it incredibly cheap to borrow money .
By 2005 , lenders offered mortgages with teaser rates as low as 0.9 % .
And demand was furious .
Buyers gobbled up homes as quickly as they came on the market , and housing prices reached @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so hot in the early 2000s that lenders stopped requiring borrowers to make a 20 % down payment , and even extended these terms to borrowers with terrible credit .
Soon , banks were lending more than 100 % of a home ’ s value , at ridiculously low mortgage rates , to borrowers who had a track record of not paying their debts , at a time when housing prices were at record highs .
What could have possibly gone wrong ?
!
!
?
!
?
?
Eventually the housing market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the world stopped paying their mortgages .
Suddenly the homes were worth less than their mortgages , and banks were sitting on trillions of dollars worth of losses .
Several banks collapsed , and the whole financial system almost went down with them… triggering one of the biggest financial crises in history .
Asset prices everywhere crashed .
Real estate prices fell .
Global stock markets sank ; the S & P 500 in the United States shed 57 % of its value , losing more than a decade worth of gains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from oil to copper to cotton .
Even gold and silver fell .
Investors were in a panic , and many of them were forced to sell everything to raise cash .
Due to all the panic selling , silver fell by roughly 50 % , and gold about 30 % .
But by October 2008 , governments and central banks around the world announced unprecedented stimulus programs .
Government debt surged to levels never before seen in the history of the world , and central banks conjured trillions of dollars , euros @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thin air .
It was at this point that both gold and silver began rising rapidly .
You might also recall that inflation began to increase as a result of all this new debt and money printing .
In particular , food and fuel prices soared .
In just six months from September 2010 to March 2011 , for example , gasoline prices in the US rose 50 % , from $ 2.61 to nearly $ 4 .
It was painful .
But the people responsible for creating such havoc were totally clueless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York held a press conference to downplay everyone ’ s concerns and insist that inflation wasn ’ t a problem .
As proof , he told the audience that the price of an iPad 2 was lower than the price of an iPad 1… therefore ( in his view ) prices were actually falling .
It became known as the “ Let them eat iPad ” speech , and prompted one reporter to ask , “ When was the last time , sir , that you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to exclaim , “ I can ’ t eat an iPad !
” Real assets performed very well during this period .
Though there were some exceptions .
The housing market bust was so severe that residential real estate prices in most of the world declined for several years .
The median home price in the United States , for example , didn ’ t start to rise again until 2012– more than four years after the crisis started .
But raw land , and especially farmland , performed very well .
Precious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they both fell in the early days of the crisis , the price of gold would more than double in value , and the price of silver increased more than 5x .
We can ’ t say , of course , that this is exactly the scenario that will unfold this time around .
The circumstances are obviously different .
But one key similarity between the financial crisis of 2008 and today is the tidal wave of debt and money printing .
Today they ’ re printing far more money than they printed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the scope of the crisis is much greater .
By the end of 2019 there was a record $ 250 trillion worth of debt worldwide ; that amount includes the value of all government debt , corporate debt , consumer debt , home mortgages , etc .
worldwide .
If even a small percentage of that debt ends up going to money heaven , the losses will completely dwarf the 2008 financial crisis .
That ’ s why the Federal Reserve has already printed $ 2.5 trillion in the last two months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ print money to cover the losses and less the economic impact of the pandemic .
They ’ ve also slashed interest rates to zero , and the futures market expects that rates will turn NEGATIVE by January .
It seems clear that central banks will print whatever it takes to ease the crisis .
And that could mean a lot of things .
Perhaps we ’ ll see a return to the 1970s style stagflation ( which we talked about last week . )
Or perhaps we ’ ll see a conditions similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis .
There are plenty of possibilities , and no one knows for sure exactly what will happen next .
But if history is any guide , real assets typically perform very well when central banks print incomprehensible sums of money .

by Simon Black
The last time the economy blew up was back in 2008. Most of our readers probably remember it– the global financial system almost collapsed.
Just prior to the 2008 crisis, housing was in a major, worldwide bubble. Central banks around the world had cut interest rates to near-zero levels, making it incredibly cheap to borrow money.
By 2005, lenders offered mortgages with teaser rates as low as 0.9%. And demand was furious. Buyers gobbled up homes as quickly as they came on the market, and housing prices reached all-time highs.
The housing market was so hot in the early 2000s that lenders stopped requiring borrowers to make a 20% down payment, and even extended these terms to borrowers with terrible credit.
Soon, banks were lending more than 100% of a home’s value, at ridiculously low mortgage rates, to borrowers who had a track record of not paying their debts, at a time when housing prices were at record highs.
What could have possibly gone wrong?!!?!??
Eventually the housing market went bust, and millions of people around the world stopped paying their mortgages.
Suddenly the homes were worth less than their mortgages, and banks were sitting on trillions of dollars worth of losses.
Several banks collapsed, and the whole financial system almost went down with them… triggering one of the biggest financial crises in history.
Asset prices everywhere crashed. Real estate prices fell. Global stock markets sank; the S&P 500 in the United States shed 57% of its value, losing more than a decade worth of gains.
And most major commodities fell too– from oil to copper to cotton. Even gold and silver fell. Investors were in a panic, and many of them were forced to sell everything to raise cash.
Due to all the panic selling, silver fell by roughly 50%, and gold about 30%.
But by October 2008, governments and central banks around the world announced unprecedented stimulus programs. Government debt surged to levels never before seen in the history of the world, and central banks conjured trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, and yen out of thin air.
It was at this point that both gold and silver began rising rapidly.
You might also recall that inflation began to increase as a result of all this new debt and money printing.
In particular, food and fuel prices soared. In just six months from September 2010 to March 2011, for example, gasoline prices in the US rose 50%, from $2.61 to nearly $4. It was painful.
But the people responsible for creating such havoc were totally clueless.
In March 2011, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York held a press conference to downplay everyone’s concerns and insist that inflation wasn’t a problem.
As proof, he told the audience that the price of an iPad 2 was lower than the price of an iPad 1… therefore (in his view) prices were actually falling.
It became known as the “Let them eat iPad” speech, and prompted one reporter to ask, “When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?” And another to exclaim, “I can’t eat an iPad!”
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Real assets performed very well during this period. Though there were some exceptions.
The housing market bust was so severe that residential real estate prices in most of the world declined for several years.
The median home price in the United States, for example, didn’t start to rise again until 2012– more than four years after the crisis started.
But raw land, and especially farmland, performed very well.
Precious metals also rose dramatically. Even though they both fell in the early days of the crisis, the price of gold would more than double in value, and the price of silver increased more than 5x.
We can’t say, of course, that this is exactly the scenario that will unfold this time around. The circumstances are obviously different.
But one key similarity between the financial crisis of 2008 and today is the tidal wave of debt and money printing.
Today they’re printing far more money than they printed back in 2008, because, frankly, the scope of the crisis is much greater.
By the end of 2019 there was a record $250 trillion worth of debt worldwide; that amount includes the value of all government debt, corporate debt, consumer debt, home mortgages, etc. worldwide.
If even a small percentage of that debt ends up going to money heaven, the losses will completely dwarf the 2008 financial crisis.
That’s why the Federal Reserve has already printed $2.5 trillion in the last two months alone. They’re trying to print money to cover the losses and less the economic impact of the pandemic.
They’ve also slashed interest rates to zero, and the futures market expects that rates will turn NEGATIVE by January.
It seems clear that central banks will print whatever it takes to ease the crisis.
And that could mean a lot of things. Perhaps we’ll see a return to the 1970s style stagflation (which we talked about last week.)
Or perhaps we’ll see a conditions similar to what happened in the last financial crisis.
There are plenty of possibilities, and no one knows for sure exactly what will happen next.
But if history is any guide, real assets typically perform very well when central banks print incomprehensible sums of money.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--POTUS: “Obamagate Makes Watergate Look Small Time” … “Most Corrupt Administration in US History”

BOOM !
Trump UNLOADS on Obama : “ Obamagate Makes Watergate Look Small Time ” and “ Most Corrupt Administration @ @ @ @ @ Obamagate On Monday President Trump went after his predecessor — Barack Obama — for his @ @ @ @ @ President Trump unloaded on the former president .
“ The most corrupt administration in US @ @ @ @ @ s only Monday morning !
This week is going to be lit !
# Obamagate

BOOM! Trump UNLOADS on Obama: “Obamagate Makes Watergate Look Small Time” and “Most Corrupt Administration in US History” #Obamagate
On Monday President Trump went after his predecessor — Barack Obama — for his historic corruption!
President Trump tweeted: “OBAMAGATE makes Watergate look small time!”
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OBAMAGATE makes Watergate look small time! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 11, 2020
And then President Trump unloaded on the former president. “The most corrupt administration in US history.”
Because it was OBAMAGATE, and he and Sleepy Joe led the charge. The most corrupt administration in U.S. history! t.co/PTzFvvITh3 — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 11, 2020
And it’s only Monday morning!
This week is going to be lit!
#Obamagate
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/boom-trump-unloads-obama-obamagate-makes-watergate-look-small-time-corrupt-administration-us-history-obamagate/


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--The year 2020 has brought us two black swans so far, and each will have potent consequences for the

The year 2020 has brought us two black swans so far, and each will have potent consequences for the Imperium Americanum…

A black swan is slang for an unexpected event with large consequences .
2020 has brought us two so far : the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of oil prices .
Each will have potent consequences for the Imperium Americanum .
And there is a nest of black cygnets maturing .
A new infectious disease was noticed in China at the end of last year , identified as a coronavirus in January and a pandemic was declared in March .
Since then economic and social life has come to a stop in the West as governments have been convinced to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March and April and are still in effect ; while some jurisdictions lessen them , others talk about more months .
It is not the purpose of this essay to wonder whether these measures were justified or effective , only to state that they happened and that the world economy will have been enfeebled for two to three months or even longer .
A big black swan indeed .
The fuller effects won ’ t be known for some time but one result is certainly that the West ’ s repudiation for efficiency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – hit .
Only six months earlier , a survey confidently stated that the West – led by the USA and Britain – would do best in dealing with a pandemic .
Not so : “ We Are Living in a Failed State : The coronavirus didn ’ t break America .
It revealed what was already broken “ ; “ The Death of American Competence “ ; “ The coronavirus is the worst intelligence failure in U.S. history “ ; “ U.S. ’ s global reputation hits rock-bottom over Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world has loved , hated and envied the U.S. Now , for the first time , we pity it ” ; “ Coronavirus : EU could fail over outbreak , warns Italy ’ s Giuseppe Conte “ ; “ The EU has bungled its response to coronavirus and it might never fully recover “ .
China can ’ t hold back its laughter “ Chinese state media calls U.S. a ‘ primitive society , ’ says ‘ democracy is dying ’ amid coronavirus “ .
Many of the American pieces , reflecting the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as through it were all Trump ’ s fault .
But it wasn ’ t Trump who didn ’ t replace PPE stocks used up eleven years ago .
Whatever failures are his , the failure is not his alone .
And neither are the West ’ s other deficiencies his doing .
No one seems to have stocks of PPE – the easier and most obvious first step against the threat .
Washington deflects its failure by blaming China .
But here too it ’ s lost its competence : here ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the same time that it ’ s manmade and that it isn ’ t : POMPEO : Look , the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade .
I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point .
RADDATZ : Your — your Office of the DNI says the consensus , the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified .
POMPEO : That ’ s right .
I — I — I agree with that .
Yes .
I ’ ve — I ’ ve seen their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ summary that you saw that was released publicly .
I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point .
To say nothing of Fauci ’ s money in the Wuhan lab .
China may not even be the point of origin : France has just discovered a case from December and there may be a U.S. case from November .
The breathlessly reported Five-Eyes assessment blaming China is fast collapsing : “ mostly based on news reports and contained no material from intelligence gathering ” says one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into a coffle , but the rest of the world will scorn it as a pitiful attempt to distract .
There will be increased rejection of the West ’ s assumption of competence and veracity .
And , in the West itself , more will doubt the words of “ experts ” ( especially those from Imperial College and its professors ) , “ authorities and “ trusted media sources ” .
Most of the West is still shut down but China is opening .
Observers know that China is becoming the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bank had already given it that title in PPP terms in 2013 – and COVID-19 is sure to accelerate the process by giving it a head start out of the economic slowdown .
With cheap energy too .
“ Soft power ” is a useful term that describes the appeal of a given culture to others .
For many years this was a potent arrow in the America quiver – I often think of the character played by Gregory Peck in Roman Holiday as the exemplar : open , honest , honourable and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example and never to take advantage of her .
Propaganda , to be sure , but effective propaganda .
COVID-19 shows something else : in the simplest terms China has given assistance to many countries and the “ U.S .
accused of ‘ modern piracy ’ after diversion of masks meant for Europe “ .
Piffle like “ The United States and President Trump are leading the global effort to combat this pandemic ” or “ America remains the world ’ s leading light of humanitarian goodness ” just make it more obvious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ salads : reaffirms/recognises/supports/recalls .
And only three months ago the “ West is winning “ .
It has be-clowned itself .
Of the downstream effects of the COVID-19 black swan , we can see at least three : great and possibly fatal damage to the assumption of American and Western competence ; a widening of the economic gap with China ; a further change in the world soft power balance .
The “ blame China ” diversion ( not forgetting the rest of the current Enemy Package – Russia and Iran ) is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these changes is to the benefit of the Imperium Americanum .
In March Riyadh , on behalf of OPEC , proposed to Moscow that they reduce oil production in order to keep prices up .
Moscow refused and Riyadh started pumping .
COVID-19 shutdowns collapsed demand .
A month later West Texas Intermediate futures went negative and the price of a barrel of oil passed below $ 20 .
Generally it is estimated that the U.S. shale oil industry ( about 60 % of U.S. production ) needs prices of about $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite very low pumping costs , squanders so much that it needs about $ 80 ; Russia on the other hand is profitable at $ 45 and has half a trillion dollars in its FOREX kitty .
So , if Riyadh started a price war it is not in a strong position ; Moscow , on the other hand , some say , can survive $ 25 a barrel for ten years .
As China ’ s industry comes back on line , it is starting to buy oil but most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this price competition in a demand crash is unknown but it is unlikely that the U.S. shale industry will do well out of it .
And , because so much of Washington ’ s behaviour is based on the confidence that it is oil-independent , the U.S. will not come out of this stronger .
So two black swans are likely to leave the Imperium Americanum weaker and less influential .
And , it should be said , more contemned .
But there is more .
Some may remember the excitement of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gulf War of 1990 .
And a weapon that could be launched a thousand kilometres away and hit a particular floor of the building aimed at was pretty amazing .
That was the first large-scale public combat use of very long-range precision weapons and for many years cruise missiles were a signature feature of U.S. attacks and practically a monopoly .
Until 2015 when Russia struck targets in Syria from otherwise insignificant small craft in the Caspian Sea .
So flabbergasted was Washington by this that its first reaction was to pooh-pooh the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many Kalibres have been launched from different platforms including submerged submarines .
So , there were now two demonstrated members of the club that could , in real conditions , precisely hit a target a long distance away .
In its response to the killing of Soleimani , Iran showed that it too was a member of the club .
While it seems some of its missiles did go astray , most hit exactly what they were aimed at .
( The U.S. military ’ s opponents also took note – again – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have effective air defences ) .
And the usual reaction from Washington : downplaying at first ; later we heard of the hundred-plus brain injuries .
Quite an achievement for a country that has been under sanctions for decades .
And Iran just joined another small club : countries that can launch a satellite on their own ( again the U.S. contemptuous dismissal : “ tumbling webcam in space “ ) .
The Trump Administration is very hostile towards Iran but no more so than most U.S .
Administrations since the departure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power by a U.S.-UK coup .
Probably the hottest moment of this undeclared war was in 1988 , but there have been many other crises and we just had another threat from Washington .
Tehran knows its on Washington ’ s hit list and has been preparing for decades .
Missiles will be one of its principal defences .
Washington would do well to reflect on Iran ’ s – surprising to it – membership in these two elite clubs before it makes any more threats .
Little cygnets become big swans .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s demand that U.S. forces leave the country .
Washington is consolidating its troops but they will be besieged prisoners if the country rises against them .
Which sooner or later it will when the new Prime Minister forms his government .
Two consequences of the neocon-dominated “ New American Century ” in the Middle East have been the growth of Iran ’ s influence and the demonstration that the U.S. military is not the omnipotent force it thought it was .
When the effort to get it out starts , Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hope it goes away , enormously reinforce its troops for a completely new war , withdraw à la Vietnam .
This cygnet is growing .
A pandemic , oil price collapse , a target country showing it has more capability than assumed , threatened expulsion from Iraq .
The surprises have exposed long-time weaknesses .
It ’ s always the unexpected things that test things to destruction .

by Patrick Armstrong via Strategic Culture Foundation
A black swan is slang for an unexpected event with large consequences. 2020 has brought us two so far: the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of oil prices. Each will have potent consequences for the Imperium Americanum. And there is a nest of black cygnets maturing.
COVID-19
A new infectious disease was noticed in China at the end of last year, identified as a coronavirus in January and a pandemic was declared in March. Since then economic and social life has come to a stop in the West as governments have been convinced to declare shutdowns. Restrictions became widespread in March and April and are still in effect; while some jurisdictions lessen them, others talk about more months. It is not the purpose of this essay to wonder whether these measures were justified or effective, only to state that they happened and that the world economy will have been enfeebled for two to three months or even longer. A big black swan indeed.
The fuller effects won’t be known for some time but one result is certainly that the West’s repudiation for efficiency has taken a huge – perhaps fatal – hit. Only six months earlier, a survey confidently stated that the West – led by the USA and Britain – would do best in dealing with a pandemic. Not so: “We Are Living in a Failed State: The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken“; “The Death of American Competence“; “The coronavirus is the worst intelligence failure in U.S. history“; “U.S.’s global reputation hits rock-bottom over Trump’s coronavirus response“; ““The world has loved, hated and envied the U.S. Now, for the first time, we pity it”; “Coronavirus: EU could fail over outbreak, warns Italy’s Giuseppe Conte“; “The EU has bungled its response to coronavirus and it might never fully recover“. China can’t hold back its laughter “Chinese state media calls U.S. a ‘primitive society,’ says ‘democracy is dying’ amid coronavirus“. Many of the American pieces, reflecting the abyssal divide in U.S. politics, write as through it were all Trump’s fault. But it wasn’t Trump who didn’t replace PPE stocks used up eleven years ago. Whatever failures are his, the failure is not his alone. And neither are the West’s other deficiencies his doing. No one seems to have stocks of PPE – the easier and most obvious first step against the threat.
Washington deflects its failure by blaming China. But here too it’s lost its competence: here’s U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo asserting at the same time that it’s manmade and that it isn’t:
POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.
RADDATZ: Your — your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.
POMPEO: That’s right. I — I — I agree with that. Yes. I’ve — I’ve seen their analysis. I’ve seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.
To say nothing of Fauci’s money in the Wuhan lab. China may not even be the point of origin: France has just discovered a case from December and there may be a U.S. case from November. The breathlessly reported Five-Eyes assessment blaming China is fast collapsing: “mostly based on news reports and contained no material from intelligence gathering” says one of the Eyes. Washington may lash its minions into a coffle, but the rest of the world will scorn it as a pitiful attempt to distract. There will be increased rejection of the West’s assumption of competence and veracity. And, in the West itself, more will doubt the words of “experts” (especially those from Imperial College and its professors), “authorities and “trusted media sources”.
Most of the West is still shut down but China is opening. Observers know that China is becoming the world’s top economy – the World Bank had already given it that title in PPP terms in 2013 – and COVID-19 is sure to accelerate the process by giving it a head start out of the economic slowdown. With cheap energy too.
“Soft power” is a useful term that describes the appeal of a given culture to others. For many years this was a potent arrow in the America quiver – I often think of the character played by Gregory Peck in Roman Holiday as the exemplar: open, honest, honourable and modern, but content to be an example and never to take advantage of her. Propaganda, to be sure, but effective propaganda. COVID-19 shows something else: in the simplest terms China has given assistance to many countries and the “U.S. accused of ‘modern piracy’ after diversion of masks meant for Europe“. Piffle like “The United States and President Trump are leading the global effort to combat this pandemic” or “America remains the world’s leading light of humanitarian goodness” just make it more obvious. From the EU we get word salads: reaffirms/recognises/supports/recalls. And only three months ago the “West is winning“. It has be-clowned itself.
Of the downstream effects of the COVID-19 black swan, we can see at least three: great and possibly fatal damage to the assumption of American and Western competence; a widening of the economic gap with China; a further change in the world soft power balance. The “blame China” diversion (not forgetting the rest of the current Enemy Package – Russia and Iran) is childish and will earn disgust. None of these changes is to the benefit of the Imperium Americanum.
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Oil
In March Riyadh, on behalf of OPEC, proposed to Moscow that they reduce oil production in order to keep prices up. Moscow refused and Riyadh started pumping. COVID-19 shutdowns collapsed demand. A month later West Texas Intermediate futures went negative and the price of a barrel of oil passed below $20.
Generally it is estimated that the U.S. shale oil industry (about 60% of U.S. production) needs prices of about $60 to be profitable, Saudi Arabia, despite very low pumping costs, squanders so much that it needs about $80; Russia on the other hand is profitable at $45 and has half a trillion dollars in its FOREX kitty. So, if Riyadh started a price war it is not in a strong position; Moscow, on the other hand, some say, can survive $25 a barrel for ten years. As China’s industry comes back on line, it is starting to buy oil but most of it from Russia.
The end result of this price competition in a demand crash is unknown but it is unlikely that the U.S. shale industry will do well out of it. And, because so much of Washington’s behaviour is based on the confidence that it is oil-independent, the U.S. will not come out of this stronger.
So two black swans are likely to leave the Imperium Americanum weaker and less influential. And, it should be said, more contemned. But there is more.
And some black cygnets
Some may remember the excitement of TV commentators about cruise missiles in the Gulf War of 1990. And a weapon that could be launched a thousand kilometres away and hit a particular floor of the building aimed at was pretty amazing. That was the first large-scale public combat use of very long-range precision weapons and for many years cruise missiles were a signature feature of U.S. attacks and practically a monopoly. Until 2015 when Russia struck targets in Syria from otherwise insignificant small craft in the Caspian Sea. So flabbergasted was Washington by this that its first reaction was to pooh-pooh the accuracy. But they were real; many Kalibres have been launched from different platforms including submerged submarines. So, there were now two demonstrated members of the club that could, in real conditions, precisely hit a target a long distance away. In its response to the killing of Soleimani, Iran showed that it too was a member of the club. While it seems some of its missiles did go astray, most hit exactly what they were aimed at. (The U.S. military’s opponents also took note – again – of the fact that it does not have effective air defences). And the usual reaction from Washington: downplaying at first; later we heard of the hundred-plus brain injuries. Quite an achievement for a country that has been under sanctions for decades. And Iran just joined another small club: countries that can launch a satellite on their own (again the U.S. contemptuous dismissal: “tumbling webcam in space“).
The Trump Administration is very hostile towards Iran but no more so than most U.S. Administrations since the departure of the Shah – himself put back into power by a U.S.-UK coup. Probably the hottest moment of this undeclared war was in 1988, but there have been many other crises and we just had another threat from Washington. Tehran knows its on Washington’s hit list and has been preparing for decades. Missiles will be one of its principal defences. Washington would do well to reflect on Iran’s – surprising to it – membership in these two elite clubs before it makes any more threats. Little cygnets become big swans.
Another black cygnet is the Iraq parliament’s demand that U.S. forces leave the country. Washington is consolidating its troops but they will be besieged prisoners if the country rises against them. Which sooner or later it will when the new Prime Minister forms his government. Two consequences of the neocon-dominated “New American Century” in the Middle East have been the growth of Iran’s influence and the demonstration that the U.S. military is not the omnipotent force it thought it was. When the effort to get it out starts, Washington will have three choices: hunker down and hope it goes away, enormously reinforce its troops for a completely new war, withdraw à la Vietnam. This cygnet is growing.
* * *
A pandemic, oil price collapse, a target country showing it has more capability than assumed, threatened expulsion from Iraq. The surprises have exposed long-time weaknesses.
It’s always the unexpected things that test things to destruction.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--35% Real Unemployment (And Most Americans Are Optimistic Their Jobs Will Come Back Soon?)

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St Jason talks about the record unemployment numbers and jobless claims in @ @ @ @ @ 7 weeks and how the numbers are actually worse than that headlines .
Also , @ @ @ @ @ majority of Americans polled ( 77 % ) are very optimistic that their jobs will @ @ @ @ @ you agree with their optimism or do you think that it ’ s hopium or @ @ @ @ @ us monthly for our hard work creating high level , thought provoking content that includes @ @ @ @ @ analysis and short videos about investing and the economy www.patreon.com/wallstformainst

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St
Jason talks about the record unemployment numbers and jobless claims in the US over the last 7 weeks and how the numbers are actually worse than that headlines.
Also, in a recent poll a majority of Americans polled (77%) are very optimistic that their jobs will come back soon.
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Do you agree with their optimism or do you think that it’s hopium or naivete?
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--Can the Elites Freeze Bank Accounts and Seize Deposits? Read On to Find Out

The U.S. will issue over $ 3 trillion in debt between April and June of this year .
The Federal deficit is already on pace to surpass $ 4 trillion in 2020 and that ’ s before the next round of stimulus programs are introduced ( some members of Congress want bailouts for states as well as pension funds ) .
The U.S. funds its budget with tax revenues .
However , tax revenues are dropping due to the economic shutdown .
Moreover , the U.S. has already introduced one tax deferment to July for 2019 and 2020 taxes… and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proposal to extend this deferment to September or even December .
Put simply , tax revenues are collapsing right as the U.S. issues record amounts of debt .
This will work temporarily , as the bond market is showing tremendous demand for U.S. debt based on safe haven buying and fears of continued economic weakness .
However , at some point , the elites who run this country will begin looking for new sources of capital to finance their schemes .
They ’ ll introduce these ideas as new proposals based on “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” but the reality is that the Powers That Be have been working on this for well nearly a decade .
Elites knew well in advance that another crisis was coming , and they put in place legislation that would allow them to : 1 ) Freeze bank accounts and use them to “ bail-in ” financial institutions/ banks .
2 ) Close the “ gates ” on investment funds/ money market funds to stop you from getting your money out .
Did you know the IMF has already called for nations around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 10 % on NET WEALTH as soon as possible ?
If you think that ’ s bad , consider that the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession .
If you think this sounds like a “ conspiracy theory ” we ’ ve actually uncovered a secret document outlining exactly how the elites plan to do this .
It was written by a man who has served as an advisor to THREE separate central banks .

The U.S. will issue over $3 trillion in debt between April and June of this year. The Federal deficit is already on pace to surpass $4 trillion in 2020 and that’s before the next round of stimulus programs are introduced (some members of Congress want bailouts for states as well as pension funds).
The U.S. funds its budget with tax revenues. However, tax revenues are dropping due to the economic shutdown. Moreover, the U.S. has already introduced one tax deferment to July for 2019 and 2020 taxes… and the Trump administration is now floating a proposal to extend this deferment to September or even December.
Put simply, tax revenues are collapsing right as the U.S. issues record amounts of debt.
This will work temporarily, as the bond market is showing tremendous demand for U.S. debt based on safe haven buying and fears of continued economic weakness.
However, at some point, the elites who run this country will begin looking for new sources of capital to finance their schemes.
They’ll introduce these ideas as new proposals based on “fairness” or “helping America out” but the reality is that the Powers That Be have been working on this for well nearly a decade.
Elites knew well in advance that another crisis was coming, and they put in place legislation that would allow them to:
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1) Freeze bank accounts and use them to “bail-in” financial institutions/ banks.
2) Close the “gates” on investment funds/ money market funds to stop you from getting your money out.
3) Impose wealth taxes and seize unused assets.
Did you know the IMF has already called for nations around the world to introduce a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH as soon as possible?
If you think that’s bad, consider that the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.
If you think this sounds like a “conspiracy theory” we’ve actually uncovered a secret document outlining exactly how the elites plan to do this. It was written by a man who has served as an advisor to THREE separate central banks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--DD: Next up on Retail Bankruptcies: Express Inc.

Now that we ’ re starting to reopen brick and mortar across the nation and the first news of second wave is finally starting to emerge across Europe and Asia , I ’ m finally confident enough to release my research .
Express Inc. the store you always walked by in the mall that triggered PTSD of a time you were able to get into a slim fit v neck and slug Red Bull vodkas down while listening to DJ Paully D. I think it ’ s finally time to put the nail in this one .
Sales : We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the writing on the wall .
With 300+ stores closed across the nation , the primary driver of sales for Express has been decimated ( similar to all retail chains who ’ s primary focus are not online ) .
Second wave will be touch and go around states causing uncertainty in projected sales as foot traffic will be uncertain as states continue to figure out their return to normal .
With the kind of clothing they sell , most people try before they buy , this could also increase cost of inventory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ store , or increase inventory costs from constant back and forth from online returns .
Secondly , let ’ s look at the target market for Express clothes .
Their product is mainly focused around businesses and casual wear .
Considering there ’ s a large movement towards WFH , I don ’ t see many people buying dress shirts , pants etc .
On the casual side , bars and restaurants will be the last to open .
As less people will be dressing for a night out , I see another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turned to online sales to generate revenue .
However , they ’ re a discretionary product .
They state in the risks portion of the 10-K they ’ re facing heavy competition from online retailers and lower priced product ( like an H & M ) .
Substitute goods .
Also , net sales have been flat or going down since 2015 .
Product : Express relies 100 % on manufacturing from both Asia and South America .
This means that they could face major supply interruptions as COVID starts to spread in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Asia .
To top this , Express ’ distribution , manufacturing and shipping are 100 % outsourced .
You may think well , less overhead , which is a fair point , but to be at the mercy of the supply chain may result in reputation damage and lost sales .
There ’ s a fair bit more on their product side exposure if you have a look at the 10-K. Assets : As the company leases most store space , it doesn ’ t have hard assets like brick and mortar to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of its total assets are a “ Right of Use Asset ” which funnily just popped up on the Balance Sheet this year and is a lessees right to use an asset over the life of the asset .
Not much in the financials about what it is , but I ’ m calling BS on that having much value when brick and mortar isn ’ t attractive and no business are looking to pick up leases .
Get ready for that to be impaired into the ground .
Other assets are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only knows who ’ s buying a 60 dollar button down with 30M unemployed .
Liabilities : Obviously major liability is leases which ST is about equal to all their ST assets .
Sure they ’ ll manage to negotiate , but again , that costs money .
Also long term lease liabilities , which oh funny enough is the same amount as the Right of Use Asset .
So they ’ re balance sheet less that one accounting for leases is 800M half of which is going to ST liabilities .
Stock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tired but I think we ’ re starting to get the point .
It ’ s been going down like your girlfriend for the past 5 years .
In one of their recent disclosures they issued preferred shares , which I think means further dilution .
The CEO in the 8-k filed recently mentioned they ’ re furloughed employees and trying to reduce expenses , but let ’ s be real , they were headed to penny stock land or bankruptcy long before COVID .
This is just the last nail in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be terrible , which surely in the limbo stick analyst world will screw me short term as “ it wasn ’ t as bad as expected ” is apparently a new acceptable normal .
I ’ m a believer this one is done long term , even if the second wave isn ’ t as bad as I predict .
Options noob , but I can ’ t short .
Do your own research , this is NOT investment advice .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by YouKantTaxThis
Now that we’re starting to reopen brick and mortar across the nation and the first news of second wave is finally starting to emerge across Europe and Asia, I’m finally confident enough to release my research.
Express Inc. the store you always walked by in the mall that triggered PTSD of a time you were able to get into a slim fit v neck and slug Red Bull vodkas down while listening to DJ Paully D. I think it’s finally time to put the nail in this one.
Sales: We’re all smart enough to see the writing on the wall. With 300+ stores closed across the nation, the primary driver of sales for Express has been decimated (similar to all retail chains who’s primary focus are not online). Second wave will be touch and go around states causing uncertainty in projected sales as foot traffic will be uncertain as states continue to figure out their return to normal. With the kind of clothing they sell, most people try before they buy, this could also increase cost of inventory for constantly having to sanitize products in store, or increase inventory costs from constant back and forth from online returns.
Secondly, let’s look at the target market for Express clothes. Their product is mainly focused around businesses and casual wear. Considering there’s a large movement towards WFH, I don’t see many people buying dress shirts, pants etc. On the casual side, bars and restaurants will be the last to open. As less people will be dressing for a night out, I see another major dent in sales.
Express have turned to online sales to generate revenue. However, they’re a discretionary product. They state in the risks portion of the 10-K they’re facing heavy competition from online retailers and lower priced product (like an H&M). Substitute goods.
Also, net sales have been flat or going down since 2015.
Product: Express relies 100% on manufacturing from both Asia and South America. This means that they could face major supply interruptions as COVID starts to spread in South America and continues to persist in Asia. To top this, Express’ distribution, manufacturing and shipping are 100% outsourced. You may think well, less overhead, which is a fair point, but to be at the mercy of the supply chain may result in reputation damage and lost sales.
There’s a fair bit more on their product side exposure if you have a look at the 10-K.
Assets: As the company leases most store space, it doesn’t have hard assets like brick and mortar to sell off and raise cash.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
60% of its total assets are a “Right of Use Asset” which funnily just popped up on the Balance Sheet this year and is a lessees right to use an asset over the life of the asset. Not much in the financials about what it is, but I’m calling BS on that having much value when brick and mortar isn’t attractive and no business are looking to pick up leases. Get ready for that to be impaired into the ground.
Other assets are small cash and clothes … which lord only knows who’s buying a 60 dollar button down with 30M unemployed.
Liabilities: Obviously major liability is leases which ST is about equal to all their ST assets. Sure they’ll manage to negotiate, but again, that costs money. Also long term lease liabilities, which oh funny enough is the same amount as the Right of Use Asset. So they’re balance sheet less that one accounting for leases is 800M half of which is going to ST liabilities.
Stock Price: Okay I’m getting tired but I think we’re starting to get the point. It’s been going down like your girlfriend for the past 5 years. In one of their recent disclosures they issued preferred shares, which I think means further dilution.
The CEO in the 8-k filed recently mentioned they’re furloughed employees and trying to reduce expenses, but let’s be real, they were headed to penny stock land or bankruptcy long before COVID. This is just the last nail in the coffin.
Earnings for Q2 are going to be terrible, which surely in the limbo stick analyst world will screw me short term as “it wasn’t as bad as expected” is apparently a new acceptable normal. I’m a believer this one is done long term, even if the second wave isn’t as bad as I predict.
Options noob, but I can’t short. Do your own research, this is NOT investment advice.
EXPR $3p 10/16
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--The inevitable has began and the tax plague will be permanent long after #Covid19 vaccine.

Get Used to It : COVID-19 Taxes Are Coming , Will Remain Indefinitely Governments do not produce and they do not create .
At best they facilitate various services—and oftentimes very poorly when compared to the private sector .
However , what governments do fantastically is collect and spend the resources that the private sector creates .
This , of course , is accomplished through the incredible number of taxes implemented throughout our history , whether it be sales taxes , income taxes , property taxes , inheritance taxes , etc .
The list goes on , and still , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways of squandering this money , sending their nations deeper and deeper into debt .
Collectively , governments around the world now stand at approximately $ 77,598,169,364,443 USD in debt , with that number growing drastically higher with each passing second .
The majority of this debt was accumulated during the “ good times ” when many Western economies were experiencing record high GDP levels , record high stock market prices , and record high employment rates .
Unfortunately , for at least the short term , the good times are now over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments around the world have decided to go exponentially deeper into debt , enacting relief plan after relief plan in a desperate attempt to keep afloat an economy that they forced to shut down .

@DiMartinoBooth @mcuban
The inevitable has began and the tax plague will be permanent long after #Covid19 vaccine. t.co/BpwtYl5nh8 — Sebastián (@SebastinPatron3) May 11, 2020
Get Used to It: COVID-19 Taxes Are Coming, Will Remain Indefinitely
Governments do not produce and they do not create. At best they facilitate various services—and oftentimes very poorly when compared to the private sector. However, what governments do fantastically is collect and spend the resources that the private sector creates.
This, of course, is accomplished through the incredible number of taxes implemented throughout our history, whether it be sales taxes, income taxes, property taxes, inheritance taxes, etc. The list goes on, and still, governments around the Western world have found ways of squandering this money, sending their nations deeper and deeper into debt.
Collectively, governments around the world now stand at approximately $77,598,169,364,443 USD in debt, with that number growing drastically higher with each passing second.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The majority of this debt was accumulated during the “good times” when many Western economies were experiencing record high GDP levels, record high stock market prices, and record high employment rates.
Unfortunately, for at least the short term, the good times are now over due to the COVID-19 crisis, and governments around the world have decided to go exponentially deeper into debt, enacting relief plan after relief plan in a desperate attempt to keep afloat an economy that they forced to shut down.
www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/get-use…-2020.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--Retail investors (Robinhood retards) are pumping the market and why we may be nearing the top of the

Retail investors (Robinhood retards) are pumping the market and why we may be nearing the top of the bounce seen since the end of March.

Google Trends for searches like ‘ Stocks ’ and ‘ How to Buy Stocks ’ indicate retail investment interest is @ @ @ @ @ since 2004

by opiablame
Goldman Sachs says this market rally is being driven by FOMO and that now it's due for an 18% drop t.co/bOBvSHtlsP via @LJKawa pic.twitter.com/K7hUHFlbv6 — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) May 11, 2020
Google Trends for searches like ‘Stocks’ and ‘How to Buy Stocks’ indicate retail investment interest is at an all time high since 2004
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--At the current rate, the SBA will finish processing all EIDL applications within approximately 4.9 y

At the current rate, the SBA will finish processing all EIDL applications within approximately 4.9 years

Now , I ’ m no math whiz , so please correct me if I ’ m wrong , but I just did a back-of-the-napkin calculation this morning when I was drinking my coffee and the results are so disturbing I nearly spat out my coffee .
• SBA processed only 39,036 EIDL applications within the most recent two week time period .
• There are approximately 5 million applications in the system as of April 27th according to media reports .
• The SBA , therefore , is averaging 2,788 applications per day • There are 365 days in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the current rate , it will take SBA approximately 4.9 years to process all the EIDL applications already in the system .
EDIT : Based on information from cue378 , assuming 1/3rd of applications are auto-declined , and the actual number in recent days is closer to 10,000 applications processed per day , it will take approximately 330 days , or about 10 months to process all EDIL applications in the system .
Note : this does not include a calculation for those that submitted applications only for the grant and then subsequently @ @ @ @

by CriticalDiscipline4
Now, I’m no math whiz, so please correct me if I’m wrong, but I just did a back-of-the-napkin calculation this morning when I was drinking my coffee and the results are so disturbing I nearly spat out my coffee.
SBA processed only 39,036 EIDL applications within the most recent two week time period. There are approximately 5 million applications in the system as of April 27th according to media reports. 39,036 / 14 is approximately 2,788. The SBA, therefore, is averaging 2,788 applications per day 5 million divided by 2,788 is approximately 1793. There are 365 days in a year. 1793 divided by 365 is approximately 4.9. Therefore, at the current rate, it will take SBA approximately 4.9 years to process all the EIDL applications already in the system.
EDIT: Based on information from cue378, assuming 1/3rd of applications are auto-declined, and the actual number in recent days is closer to 10,000 applications processed per day, it will take approximately 330 days, or about 10 months to process all EDIL applications in the system. Note: this does not include a calculation for those that submitted applications only for the grant and then subsequently declined the loan.
References:
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www.newsday.com/business/coronavirus/sba-loans-money-ran-out-1.44210831
www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/EIDL%20COVID-19%20Loans%204.24.20.pdf
www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/EIDL%20COVID-19%20Loan%205.9.20_0.pdf


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--Huge volume on August $5 puts on GE

Huge volume on August $5 puts on GE

Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information @ @ @ @ @ you own due diligence .

by dickpal
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.