investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--The number of Americans that have filed for unemployment benefits in 2020 exceeds the number that vo

The number of Americans that have filed for unemployment benefits in 2020 exceeds the number that voted for Trump in 2016

I am not trying to make a political statement with this article .
I am simply pointing out that the number of Americans that have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits in 2020 is almost unimaginable .
In 2016 , a total of 62,984,828 votes were cast for Donald Trump .
Here in 2020 , a total of 63,600,000 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits since the middle of March .
So the number of Americans that have filed for unemployment during this pandemic is now greater than the number of Trump voters in the last election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won in 2016 , we would be saying the exact same thing about her in a couple of weeks .
Back in 2016 , she received a grand total of 65,853,514 votes .
The point is not to assign political blame to one side or the other , because neither side knew that COVID-19 was coming .
Rather , I am trying to get my readers to understand that we have witnessed a collapse in employment during this pandemic that is absolutely unprecedented .
And more layoff announcements keep rolling in with each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just learned that ESPN will be laying off hundreds of workers… For many , working in sports television is a dream job , and it hurts me to think that many of those employees will soon lose jobs that they truly love .
Elsewhere , Amtrak has just announced that they could soon be eliminating 2,400 more jobs… I know that I am probably boring my readers by discussing layoff announcements day after day after day , but I am trying to make a very important point .
We are not in any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Instead , we have entered a horrifying economic downturn which isn ’ t going to end any time soon .
If they actually believed that it was going to end soon , all of these big corporations would not be laying off large numbers of workers .
And without jobs , a whole lot of people out there are deeply , deeply suffering .
Right now , millions upon millions of Americans haven ’ t been paying rent , haven ’ t been paying their mortgages , haven ’ t been making their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making their credit card payments .
And I was absolutely stunned to learn that payments are being made on only 11 percent of federal student loans right now… Eventually the federal government will be requiring everyone to start making their payments again , but for now this break is helping a lot of people get through this very challenging time .
But when will this challenging time finally be over ?
So many Americans are looking forward to having economic conditions return to “ normal ” , but the truth is that our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ melting down and things are never going to be as good as they once were .
For decades , we enjoyed an unprecedented bubble of debt-fueled prosperity that allowed us to have a massively inflated standard of living , but now that bubble is bursting .
But for the moment , there is still one bubble that has stubbornly refused to end .
Thanks to the Federal Reserve , stock prices continue to go up even in the midst of this economic depression , and this has made the gap between the ultra-wealthy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever before… Just think about that .
59 Americans have as much wealth as the 165,000,000 poorest Americans combined .
And overall , billionaires around the world are now worth more than 10 trillion dollars… Meanwhile , Americans are lining up for miles to get handouts at food banks all over the nation , and it is being projected that more than 50 million Americans will soon not have enough food to eat on a regular basis .
But the mainstream media is going to continue to try to put a happy face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are telling us that “ stocks will probably rise no matter who wins the presidential election ” , and that has to be music to the ears of most wealthy investors .
Of course it is just a matter of time before a day of reckoning comes for those wealthy investors too .
I believe that the months ahead are going to represent a major turning point for our country .
Millions of Americans will have their hopes brutally crushed by the outcome of this upcoming election , and millions of others will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continues to be rocked by one major crisis after another .
If your life is defined by the system that the elite have created , the times that are approaching are going to be exceedingly difficult for you because that system is failing .
But if you choose to live for the things that really matter , you won ’ t be overwhelmed no matter how bad things get .
And as bad as things are right now , the truth is that all of this is nothing compared to what is eventually @ @

by Michael Snyder
I am not trying to make a political statement with this article. I am simply pointing out that the number of Americans that have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits in 2020 is almost unimaginable. In 2016, a total of 62,984,828 votes were cast for Donald Trump. Here in 2020, a total of 63,600,000 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits since the middle of March. So the number of Americans that have filed for unemployment during this pandemic is now greater than the number of Trump voters in the last election. Of course if Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, we would be saying the exact same thing about her in a couple of weeks. Back in 2016, she received a grand total of 65,853,514 votes. The point is not to assign political blame to one side or the other, because neither side knew that COVID-19 was coming. Rather, I am trying to get my readers to understand that we have witnessed a collapse in employment during this pandemic that is absolutely unprecedented.
And more layoff announcements keep rolling in with each passing day. For instance, we just learned that ESPN will be laying off hundreds of workers…
ESPN could lay off hundreds of employees in the coming weeks, sources told Front Office Sports. One source pegged the potential number of job losses between 300 and 700 employees. Another estimated 400 possible lost jobs. The cuts are expected to hit hardest among ESPN employees who work behind the camera.
For many, working in sports television is a dream job, and it hurts me to think that many of those employees will soon lose jobs that they truly love.
Elsewhere, Amtrak has just announced that they could soon be eliminating 2,400 more jobs…
Amtrak will need to cut 2,400 more jobs and could see “drastic impacts” on its rail service if Congress does not intervene and provide emergency funding for the passenger rail provider, the company announced Thursday. In a letter to lawmakers, Amtrak President and CEO William Flynn requested nearly $4.9 billion in fiscal year 2021 to help it close massive budget gaps it faces amid the pandemic.
I know that I am probably boring my readers by discussing layoff announcements day after day after day, but I am trying to make a very important point.
We are not in any sort of a “recovery”. Instead, we have entered a horrifying economic downturn which isn’t going to end any time soon.
If they actually believed that it was going to end soon, all of these big corporations would not be laying off large numbers of workers.
And without jobs, a whole lot of people out there are deeply, deeply suffering.
Right now, millions upon millions of Americans haven’t been paying rent, haven’t been paying their mortgages, haven’t been making their vehicle payments and haven’t been making their credit card payments.
And I was absolutely stunned to learn that payments are being made on only 11 percent of federal student loans right now…
Less than 11% of people with federal student loans are repaying them during the pandemic, according to data analyzed by higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That means about 4.6 million out of 42 million borrowers are continuing to pay down their debt.
Eventually the federal government will be requiring everyone to start making their payments again, but for now this break is helping a lot of people get through this very challenging time.
But when will this challenging time finally be over?
After the election?
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In 2021?
So many Americans are looking forward to having economic conditions return to “normal”, but the truth is that our entire system is in the process of melting down and things are never going to be as good as they once were.
For decades, we enjoyed an unprecedented bubble of debt-fueled prosperity that allowed us to have a massively inflated standard of living, but now that bubble is bursting.
But for the moment, there is still one bubble that has stubbornly refused to end. Thanks to the Federal Reserve, stock prices continue to go up even in the midst of this economic depression, and this has made the gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us wider than ever before…
The poorest 50 percent of Americans, or roughly 165 million people, collectively owned about $2.08 trillion in wealth in the second quarter of 2020, according to Federal Reserve data released last week. That’s less than the net worth of the nation’s 59 richest billionaires, who have a combined fortune of about $2.09 trillion, Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index shows — a number that’s grown this year despite the COVID-19 crisis kneecapping the global economy.
Just think about that.
59 Americans have as much wealth as the 165,000,000 poorest Americans combined.
And overall, billionaires around the world are now worth more than 10 trillion dollars…
Billionaire wealth reached record high levels amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a report by UBS and PwC found, as a rally in stock prices and gains in technology and healthcare helped the wealth of the world’s richest break the $10 trillion mark. The report, covering over 2,000 billionaires representing some 98% of the cohort’s total wealth, found billionaire wealth grew by more than a quarter during the early months of the pandemic to reach $10.2 trillion in July, breaking the previous record of $8.9 trillion at the end of 2019.
Meanwhile, Americans are lining up for miles to get handouts at food banks all over the nation, and it is being projected that more than 50 million Americans will soon not have enough food to eat on a regular basis.
But the mainstream media is going to continue to try to put a happy face on things. In fact, they are telling us that “stocks will probably rise no matter who wins the presidential election”, and that has to be music to the ears of most wealthy investors.
Of course it is just a matter of time before a day of reckoning comes for those wealthy investors too.
I believe that the months ahead are going to represent a major turning point for our country. Millions of Americans will have their hopes brutally crushed by the outcome of this upcoming election, and millions of others will be plunged into despair as our nation continues to be rocked by one major crisis after another.
If your life is defined by the system that the elite have created, the times that are approaching are going to be exceedingly difficult for you because that system is failing.
But if you choose to live for the things that really matter, you won’t be overwhelmed no matter how bad things get.
And as bad as things are right now, the truth is that all of this is nothing compared to what is eventually coming.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Was Joe Biden’s new campaign slogan “Build Back Better” actually plagiarized from somewhere else?

By now you have probably heard about Joe Biden ’ s new campaign slogan .
Even though he often has a very difficult time saying it , “ Build Back Better ” is plastered all over his official campaign website .
I think that his campaign team wanted something forwarding looking and that sounded optimistic , but it isn ’ t exactly original .
In fact , the Trump campaign has pointed out that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was using the slogan long before Biden ever did… You can watch video of both politicians using the “ Build Back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the issues that Biden has had with plagiarism in the past , his team probably should have gone with another choice .
Of course the idea of “ building back better ” did not originate with Boris Johnson either .
Approximately 2,700 years ago , the leaders of Israel decided that they would “ build back better ” after the Assyrians invaded .
The following is what Isaiah 9:10 says in the Modern English Version… As Jonathan Cahn has pointed out , some of our top politicians quoted that passage in the aftermath @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was an inspirational way of saying that America would rebuild too .
But when the leaders of Israel expressed their desire to “ build back better ” , it was actually an act of defiance .
Instead of humbling themselves and turning from their evil ways , they decided that they could make their society great again without God ’ s help .
When my wife heard Biden ’ s new slogan , she immediately recognized the parallel .
In the United States today , both political parties are boldly proclaiming that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meanwhile just about every form of wickedness that you can possibly imagine is exploding all around us .
Election Day is now less than a month away , and both sides continue to insist that they will be able to turn our nation around if they win .
But an increasing number of Americans are becoming convinced that no turnaround is coming any time soon , and they are preparing for the worst .
In fact , some people are going to wild extremes in order to insulate themselves from what they believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I came across an article that discussed the fact that brokers that sell private islands are “ overwhelmed ” with demand right now… Wouldn ’ t it be nice to have your own private island ?
In the old days , very wealthy people would buy them as vacation destinations , but now they are mainly being viewed as potential survival properties… Here in 2020 , there are so many things that people are freaking out about .
Some are concerned about another wave of COVID-19 , others fear that our ongoing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and still others are deeply concerned about the tremendous civil unrest that they see all around them .
The tragic death of George Floyd sparked a tsunami of chaos that still has not abated .
In New York City , there was widespread looting during the riots that erupted in the immediate aftermath of Floyd ’ s death , but what most Americans don ’ t realize is that the looting has not stopped since that time .
The following comes from the New York Post… Many of the retailers that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hesitant to crack down too hard , because if they do they may end up with an even greater problem… It is so sad to watch our nation being torn apart like this , and it isn ’ t going to end no matter what happens in November .
If we truly want to rebuild America , we can ’ t do it in our own strength .
Any plan that excludes God is not going to work , but of course that is not a very popular message in our day and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaders truly thought that they could “ build back better ” too , and for a little while they were successful .
But ultimately it was all for naught because they were eventually completely conquered by their enemies .
In the United States today , it seems like our problems are multiplying all around us , and 2020 has been a year that none of us will ever forget .
If we defiantly insist on trying to turn our ship around by ourselves , it will be just a matter of time before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to race toward the point of no return , and at this point time is definitely not on our side .

by Michael Snyder
By now you have probably heard about Joe Biden’s new campaign slogan. Even though he often has a very difficult time saying it, “Build Back Better” is plastered all over his official campaign website. I think that his campaign team wanted something forwarding looking and that sounded optimistic, but it isn’t exactly original. In fact, the Trump campaign has pointed out that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was using the slogan long before Biden ever did…
If you thought Joe Biden’s clunky, tax-and-spend slogan “Build Back Better” sounds like unoriginal, political consultant-speak, you’re right. In fact, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is using the same slogan and was doing so before Joe Biden stole it.
You can watch video of both politicians using the “Build Back Better” slogan right here. Considering the issues that Biden has had with plagiarism in the past, his team probably should have gone with another choice.
Of course the idea of “building back better” did not originate with Boris Johnson either. Approximately 2,700 years ago, the leaders of Israel decided that they would “build back better” after the Assyrians invaded. The following is what Isaiah 9:10 says in the Modern English Version…
“The bricks are fallen down,
but we will build with hewn stones;
the sycamores are cut down,
but we will replace them with cedars.”
As Jonathan Cahn has pointed out, some of our top politicians quoted that passage in the aftermath of 9/11 because they thought that it was an inspirational way of saying that America would rebuild too.
But when the leaders of Israel expressed their desire to “build back better”, it was actually an act of defiance. Instead of humbling themselves and turning from their evil ways, they decided that they could make their society great again without God’s help.
When my wife heard Biden’s new slogan, she immediately recognized the parallel. In the United States today, both political parties are boldly proclaiming that they will restore America to greatness, but meanwhile just about every form of wickedness that you can possibly imagine is exploding all around us.
Election Day is now less than a month away, and both sides continue to insist that they will be able to turn our nation around if they win.
But an increasing number of Americans are becoming convinced that no turnaround is coming any time soon, and they are preparing for the worst. In fact, some people are going to wild extremes in order to insulate themselves from what they believe is going to happen. On Friday, I came across an article that discussed the fact that brokers that sell private islands are “overwhelmed” with demand right now…
Calls and emails come in at all times of day and night. They no longer concern fun or prestige. Instead they focus on fresh water and solar panels. These were not the inquiries they had grown used to. The island brokers are overwhelmed.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have your own private island?
In the old days, very wealthy people would buy them as vacation destinations, but now they are mainly being viewed as potential survival properties…
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“Before, an island was a toy,” said Marcus Gondolo-Gordon, the chief executive of Incognito Property based in England. Now clients describe dreams of a “a bloody long boat ride” to ensure that no one will cruise up and infringe on their isolation, he said. They also want access to fresh water, solar panels and a house that is ready to sleep in, tomorrow.
Here in 2020, there are so many things that people are freaking out about. Some are concerned about another wave of COVID-19, others fear that our ongoing economic collapse may get a lot worse, and still others are deeply concerned about the tremendous civil unrest that they see all around them.
The tragic death of George Floyd sparked a tsunami of chaos that still has not abated. In New York City, there was widespread looting during the riots that erupted in the immediate aftermath of Floyd’s death, but what most Americans don’t realize is that the looting has not stopped since that time. The following comes from the New York Post…
The disturbing pattern began in late May during the riots that rocked the city in the wake of the George Floyd police custody death. High-end Celine was looted of $1.5 million in merchandise then, and the blatant thievery continues “every week” in ritzy stores such as Prada, Moncler, Dior and Balenciaga, one plugged-in local said.
Many of the retailers that are being hit by the shoplifters are very hesitant to crack down too hard, because if they do they may end up with an even greater problem…
“If they [store personnel] stop them and say anything in the store before they’ve left the building then it often gets turned into a racial accusation,” the source said. “The brands … tell their employees to walk away,” the insider added. “They don’t want to be the next Instagram video claiming they are a racist brand.”
It is so sad to watch our nation being torn apart like this, and it isn’t going to end no matter what happens in November.
If we truly want to rebuild America, we can’t do it in our own strength. Any plan that excludes God is not going to work, but of course that is not a very popular message in our day and time.
In ancient Israel, the leaders truly thought that they could “build back better” too, and for a little while they were successful.
But ultimately it was all for naught because they were eventually completely conquered by their enemies.
In the United States today, it seems like our problems are multiplying all around us, and 2020 has been a year that none of us will ever forget.
If we defiantly insist on trying to turn our ship around by ourselves, it will be just a matter of time before it sinks.
Unfortunately, we continue to race toward the point of no return, and at this point time is definitely not on our side.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--VIDEO: “Happening now on Rodeo Dr in LA. My son took this video! We are going to take back Californi

VIDEO: “Happening now on Rodeo Dr in LA. My son took this video! We are going to take back California! We are going to win this election by a landside!

Happening now on Rodeo Dr in LA .
My son took this video !
We are going to take back @ @ @ @ @ to win this election by a landslide !
# MAGA # MAGA2020 # MAGA2020LandslideVictory pic.twitter.com/AJqE2LTlvK

Happening now on Rodeo Dr in LA. My son took this video! We are going to take back California! We are going to win this election by a landslide! #MAGA #MAGA2020 #MAGA2020LandslideVictory pic.twitter.com/AJqE2LTlvK
— BAT (@bat211) October 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Bill Barr : Destruction of our culture

Bill Barr : Destruction of our culture

Attorney General Bill Barr : `` This is not decay .
This is organized destruction .
Secularists and their allies @ @ @ @ @ of mass communication , popular culture , the entertainment industry , and academia in an @ @ @ @ @ traditional values . ''
pic.twitter.com/HPda0ybdYN

Attorney General Bill Barr: "This is not decay. This is organized destruction. Secularists and their allies have marshaled all the forces of mass communication, popular culture, the entertainment industry, and academia in an unremitting assault on religion & traditional values." pic.twitter.com/HPda0ybdYN
— The Hill (@thehill) October 12, 2019


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--October Surprise! The movie, “THE PLOT AGAINST THE PRESIDENT”

It costs 4.99 to rent but it exposes everything .
Is this the October Surprise ?
Watch here for free @ @ @

It costs 4.99 to rent but it exposes everything. Is this the October Surprise?
Watch the trailer for free.
vimeo.com/ondemand/plotagainstthepresident
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From General Flynn’s twitter account.
Watch here for free while you can
h/t MrsTomatoHead


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Grenell on Bartiromo: “Russian collusion hoax and KNOWN to be a hoax by career intelligence official

Grenell on Bartiromo: “Russian collusion hoax and KNOWN to be a hoax by career intelligence officials…CIA FOJ FBI. They were convinced Hillary would win & didn’t want to challenge Goliath”

`` Somebody needs to go to jail and be prosecuted first , obviously .
This is a slam-dunk '' pic.twitter.com/Yl7pnLMn8j

"Somebody needs to go to jail and be prosecuted first, obviously. This is a slam-dunk" pic.twitter.com/Yl7pnLMn8j
— M3thods (@M2Madness) October 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--OBiden’s $150 Billion payment to Iran was to coverup SEAL TEAM 6 DEATHS

Many pieces are falling into place .
I don ’ t take joy in anyone ’ s death but I @ @ @ @ @ for joy when thinking about all of the TRAITORS from the last administration getting strung-up @ @ @ @ @ did !
I hope their lifeless , rotting corpses are paraded through the streets for @ @ @ @ @ shit on !

Many pieces are falling into place. I don’t take joy in anyone’s death but I can’t help jumping for joy when thinking about all of the TRAITORS from the last administration getting strung-up and HANGED for what they did! I hope their lifeless, rotting corpses are paraded through the streets for us all to piss and shit on!
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Breaking: New information about Benghazi and the deaths of Seal Team 6 and its connection to Obama and Joe Biden, and the 152 Billion “trade deal” with Iran as a coverup was just disclosed at #AMPFEST. Whistleblowers just came forward. Video and audio coming soon. This is HUGE!! — Anna Khait (@Annakhait) October 11, 2020
Everyone is about to know the name Allen Harrow Parrot — Anna Khait (@Annakhait) October 11, 2020
BREAKING: Full interview HERE about the blackmail /extortion of 152 Billion US dollars sent to Iran to coverup the deaths of seal team 6 by the Obama/Biden administration. I’m hearing someone very close to President Trump is being briefed right NOW.t.co/2xDCl8xH93 — Anna Khait (@Annakhait) October 11, 2020
BREAKING: Allen Harrow Parrot (CIA whistleblower) tells Charles Woods (father of Tyrone Woods killed in Benghazi) that Obama and Biden sent Iran 152 Billion Dollars as a coverup for the deaths of Seal Team 6. Allen said that ALL of the proof will come out: documents and audio. pic.twitter.com/ZTjncZv238 — Anna Khait (@Annakhait) October 11, 2020
I’m hearing the amount of documentation that will come out is absolutely EXTENSIVE. #BenghaziBombshell #AbsoluteTreason — Anna Khait (@Annakhait) October 11, 2020
h/t JBone


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--No-one shows up for first ever joint Biden/Harris rally in Phoenix. Local news mystified.

Biden/Harris hold campaign event in Arizona and the news station is shocked no supporters showed up 😭😂🤣 pic.twitter.com/u54tD41oq8
— Infidel Angela🇺🇸 (@InfidelAngela) October 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--WE’VE DESCENDED INTO SOME SORT OF BIZARRE HELL-WORLD IN WHICH JAKE TAPPER IS A VOICE OF SANITY:

‘ It ’ s Not Unconstitutional.
’ Jake Tapper Shreds Biden Campaign Manager Kate Bedingfield Over Biden ’ s Take @ @ @ @ @ CNN ’ s Jake Tapper shredded Biden Campaign Manager Kate Bedingfield for the former vice @ @ @ @ @ with the idea filling a Supreme Court vacancy during an election year is unconstitutional .
@ @ @ @ @ Republican-controlled Senate shouldn ’ t move forward with confirming Judge Amy Coney Barrett because “ @ @ @ @ @ He said what [ the GOP ] is doing is not Constitutional .
How is @ @ @ @ @ ’ re doing ?
” Tapper asked .
“ His point is that the people @ @ @ @ @ in on this constitutional process through their vote , ” Bedingfield explained .
“ And @ @ @ @ @ midst of the election .
Millions of people have already cast their votes .
And @ @ @ @ @ majority of people say they want the person who wins the election on November 3rd @ @ @ @ @ ”

‘It’s Not Unconstitutional.’ Jake Tapper Shreds Biden Campaign Manager Kate Bedingfield Over Biden’s Take on the Supreme Court.
CNN’s Jake Tapper shredded Biden Campaign Manager Kate Bedingfield for the former vice president and his team running with the idea filling a Supreme Court vacancy during an election year is unconstitutional. According to Bedingfield, the Republican-controlled Senate shouldn’t move forward with confirming Judge Amy Coney Barrett because “people are voting.”
“He said what [the GOP] is doing is not Constitutional. How is it not constitutional what they’re doing?” Tapper asked.
“His point is that the people have the opportunity to weigh in on this constitutional process through their vote,” Bedingfield explained. “And we are now in the midst of the election. Millions of people have already cast their votes. And you see that the vast majority of people say they want the person who wins the election on November 3rd to nominate the justice.”
“That’s a poll. That’s not the Constitution,” Tapper clapped back.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--The “experts” at WHO are now against lockdowns

In April , I did a blog post entitled , “ When you prepare for something that is not coming , you just may destroy yourself.
” Many of us “ non-experts ” questioned the rationale for shutting down economies in order to “ flatten the curve ” of a virus .
Social media platforms silenced many who also questioned the rationale of lockdowns .
Remember this ?
During the past seven months , we ’ ve seen the consequences of lockdowns : Increase in suicides , economic devastation , increase in divorces , job losses , businesses closing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so on .
There are several demorat-run states that STILL have some form of lockdowns in place ( Washington , California , Illinois , New York , etc. )
.
Wonder if they ’ ll change their tunes now that the “ experts ” at WHO are warning AGAINST lockdowns ?
The NY Post reports that The World Health Organization has warned leaders against relying on COVID-19 lockdowns to tackle outbreaks — after previously saying countries should be careful how quickly they re-open .
Apparently these lockdowns should only be treated as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too late doctor !
More from the story : “ We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus , ” Dr. David Nabarro said .
“ The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize , regroup , rebalance your resources , protect your health workers who are exhausted , but by and large , we ’ d rather not do it.
” Nabarro said that there ’ s significant harm caused by tight restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle , and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer , ” he said .
He added that lockdowns have severely impacted countries that rely on tourism .
“ Just look at what ’ s happened to the tourism industry in the Caribbean , for example , or in the Pacific because people aren ’ t taking their holidays , ” Nabarro told the outlet .
“ Look what ’ s happened to smallholder farmers all over the world .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels .
It seems that we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year .
We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition.
” I wonder if the demorat governors will take the advice of this good doctor and fully re-open their states ?
I have a feeling that decision won ’ t be made until November 4 .

by DCG
In April, I did a blog post entitled, “When you prepare for something that is not coming, you just may destroy yourself.”
Many of us “non-experts” questioned the rationale for shutting down economies in order to “flatten the curve” of a virus.
Social media platforms silenced many who also questioned the rationale of lockdowns. Remember this?
During the past seven months, we’ve seen the consequences of lockdowns: Increase in suicides, economic devastation, increase in divorces, job losses, businesses closing, students falling behind in education, and so on.
There are several demorat-run states that STILL have some form of lockdowns in place (Washington, California, Illinois, New York, etc.). Wonder if they’ll change their tunes now that the “experts” at WHO are warning AGAINST lockdowns?
The NY Post reports that The World Health Organization has warned leaders against relying on COVID-19 lockdowns to tackle outbreaks — after previously saying countries should be careful how quickly they re-open.
Apparently these lockdowns should only be treated as a “last resort.”
Too little, too late doctor!
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More from the story:
“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Dr. David Nabarro said.
“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”
Nabarro said that there’s significant harm caused by tight restrictions, particularly on the global economy. “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said.
He added that lockdowns have severely impacted countries that rely on tourism. “Just look at what’s happened to the tourism industry in the Caribbean, for example, or in the Pacific because people aren’t taking their holidays,” Nabarro told the outlet.
“Look what’s happened to smallholder farmers all over the world. Look what’s happening to poverty levels. It seems that we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition.”
I wonder if the demorat governors will take the advice of this good doctor and fully re-open their states? I have a feeling that decision won’t be made until November 4.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--A Matter of Free Speech & Tyranny of Facebook Etc.

COMMENT : I live in Wisconsin .
There has been an anti-mask group on Facebook that has been a good resource for posting and messaging about mask mandates etc etc etc .
Overnite , Facebook deleted the entire Group , which had at last count over 50,000 active members .
I suspect for political reasons .
There was nothing on there that was objectionable at all .
Mainly business owners and individuals standing up for there rights .
Just DELETED THE ENTIRE GROUP OVERNITE .
I attempted to contact the White House on there link to share Social Media Censorship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is the worst censorship I ve ever seen in my life , that I m aware of .
Blatant political move .
Got ta shut down this company for these types of abuses .
REPLY : I believe it is wrong to allow private censorship .
There was a recent case , MANHATTAN COMMUNITY ACCESS CORP .
ET AL .
v. HALLECK ET AL , where the Supreme Court has ruled that a nonprofit running public access channel wasn ’ t bound by governmental constraints on speech .
The First Amendment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no law ” that would prohibit free speech .
This has been viewed as not applying to non-government entities .
In a court decision that was a split 5–4 ruling , concerned a Manhattan-based nonprofit tasked by New York City with operating public access channels in the area .
The organization disciplined two producers after a film led to complaints , which the producers argued was a violation of their First Amendment speech rights .
The case turned on whether the nonprofit was a “ state actor ” running a platform governed by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh , which ruled that the First Amendment constraints didn ’ t apply to the nonprofit , which they considered a private entity .
Providing a forum for the speech wasn ’ t enough to become a government actor , the justices ruled .
This has emboldened the social media platforms to restrict political speech to whatever they ascribe to .
The government can not act in that manner .
Social Media was never discussed in this decision .
The idea that the decision could be used to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups like the Electronic Frontier Foundation .
The groups argued that too broad of a decision could prevent other private entities like YouTube and Twitter from managing their platforms by imposing new constraints on them .
The Internet Association , a trade group , said last year that such a decision could mean the internet “ will become less attractive , less safe and less welcoming to the average user.
” Nevertheless , this decision appears to make those concerns vanish .
The conduct of these organizations and Social Media is now suppressing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Amendment allows private people or companies to suppress public opinion and put out propaganda .
The dissent , written by Justice Sotomayor , viewed correctly that “ This is a case about an organization appointed by the government to administer a constitutional public forum .
( It is not , as the Court suggests , about a private property owner that simply opened up its property to others . )
New York City ( the City ) secured a property interest in public access television channels when it granted a cable franchise to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any license is the surrender of constitutional rights .
Registering with the SEC means you waive your 4th Amendment Rights and they can come to search your office without a warrant .
Congress can easily propose a law that expressly prohibits censorship and the Supreme Court would uphold that .
This case turned on whether it was a government actor , but it was non-profit .
There is plenty of room here to tackle a very important issue of free speech .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I live in Wisconsin. There has been an anti-mask group on Facebook that has been a good resource for posting and messaging about mask mandates etc etc etc. Overnite, Facebook deleted the entire Group, which had at last count over 50,000 active members. I suspect for political reasons. There was nothing on there that was objectionable at all. Mainly business owners and individuals standing up for there rights. Just DELETED THE ENTIRE GROUP OVERNITE. I attempted to contact the White House on there link to share Social Media Censorship but its no longer taking new cases. This is the worst censorship I ve ever seen in my life, that I m aware of. Blatant political move. Gotta shut down this company for these types of abuses.
MM
REPLY: I believe it is wrong to allow private censorship. There was a recent case, MANHATTAN COMMUNITY ACCESS CORP. ET AL. v. HALLECK ET AL, where the Supreme Court has ruled that a nonprofit running public access channel wasn’t bound by governmental constraints on speech. The First Amendment expressly states that “Congress shall make no law” that would prohibit free speech. This has been viewed as not applying to non-government entities.
In a court decision that was a split 5–4 ruling, concerned a Manhattan-based nonprofit tasked by New York City with operating public access channels in the area. The organization disciplined two producers after a film led to complaints, which the producers argued was a violation of their First Amendment speech rights. The case turned on whether the nonprofit was a “state actor” running a platform governed by First Amendment constraints.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In a decision was written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which ruled that the First Amendment constraints didn’t apply to the nonprofit, which they considered a private entity. Providing a forum for the speech wasn’t enough to become a government actor, the justices ruled. This has emboldened the social media platforms to restrict political speech to whatever they ascribe to. The government cannot act in that manner.
Social Media was never discussed in this decision. The idea that the decision could be used to penalize social media companies was raised by groups like the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The groups argued that too broad of a decision could prevent other private entities like YouTube and Twitter from managing their platforms by imposing new constraints on them. The Internet Association, a trade group, said last year that such a decision could mean the internet “will become less attractive, less safe and less welcoming to the average user.”
Nevertheless, this decision appears to make those concerns vanish. The conduct of these organizations and Social Media is now suppressing public comment. Nothing in the First Amendment allows private people or companies to suppress public opinion and put out propaganda.
The dissent, written by Justice Sotomayor, viewed correctly that “This is a case about an organization appointed by the government to administer a constitutional public forum. (It is not, as the Court suggests, about a private property owner that simply opened up its property to others.) New York City (the City) secured a property interest in public access television channels when it granted a cable franchise to a cable company.”
The granting of any license is the surrender of constitutional rights. Registering with the SEC means you waive your 4th Amendment Rights and they can come to search your office without a warrant. Congress can easily propose a law that expressly prohibits censorship and the Supreme Court would uphold that. This case turned on whether it was a government actor, but it was non-profit. There is plenty of room here to tackle a very important issue of free speech.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Martin Armstrong: We DESPERATELY need to stop these people

What is becoming increasingly clear is that those in strategic power countries have been bribed to impose lockdowns etc , and other countries have followed their lead assuming they are correct .
The Flu deaths and real COVID are about the same .
Governments have NEVER shut down the world economy for the Flu .
It is obvious that there has been a covert operation behind bribing politicians most likely in Germany , Britain , Canada , and Australia for starters .
We would NEVER have closed the world economy for the upcoming flu season .
The number of doctors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The more doctors who come out , the more others are encouraged to speak the truth .
The press is corrupt and is working very hard to destroy our culture and society .
You do not find it in the mainstream press in Germany .
They keep trying to pretend these protests do not exist .
They are the imagination of “ conspiracy theorists ” so there is nothing to report .
This time , the Berlin protest was well organized and everyone kept the social distance so the police had no justification @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been doing .
I am warning right now , Europe is risking a violent uprising if it keeps this Great Reset agenda of Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates .
From February onward there is a risk of civil unrest against this absurd agenda .
Schwab with his vision of the Fourth Industrial Revolution all built of green energy is the fantasy of a typical academic .
Nobody created the industrial revolution .
No government invented the steam engine which set it in motion and they NEVER designed or managed it .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suppresses economic innovation .
Britain imposed a law that anyone driving a new-fangled automobile had to have a man walk before it with a horn and a flag to warn people one of these machines was coming .
By 1890 , the mergers of all these small railroad companies led to the Marxist intervention known as the Sherman Anti-Trust Act .
Sherman saw that mergers reduced jobs in the light of Marxism .
The internet has been created in the very same way .
Small startups are bought out and further the advancement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong it is laughable .
It demonstrates that academics can not learn everything without experience .
Communism collapsed for the very same reason that a planned society can not replace human ingenuity because bureaucrats , like academics , lack the experience to actually see how the economy evolves .
These people are HIGHLY dangerous for they are fulfilling what our computer has been forecasting – the collapse of Western Civilization and the shift to China of the financial capital of the world .
We DESPERATELY need to stop these people .
They are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children because of their arrogance and lack of experience .
If they remove Trump , they win for he is the ONLY person who would dare to prosecute any of these people .

by Martin Armstrong
What is becoming increasingly clear is that those in strategic power countries have been bribed to impose lockdowns etc, and other countries have followed their lead assuming they are correct. The Flu deaths and real COVID are about the same. Governments have NEVER shut down the world economy for the Flu. It is obvious that there has been a covert operation behind bribing politicians most likely in Germany, Britain, Canada, and Australia for starters. We would NEVER have closed the world economy for the upcoming flu season. The number of doctors coming out against COIVID keeps growing. The more doctors who come out, the more others are encouraged to speak the truth.
The press is corrupt and is working very hard to destroy our culture and society. You do not find it in the mainstream press in Germany. They keep trying to pretend these protests do not exist. They are the imagination of “conspiracy theorists” so there is nothing to report. This time, the Berlin protest was well organized and everyone kept the social distance so the police had no justification to attack the people ruthlessly as they have been doing.
I am warning right now, Europe is risking a violent uprising if it keeps this Great Reset agenda of Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates. From February onward there is a risk of civil unrest against this absurd agenda. Schwab with his vision of the Fourth Industrial Revolution all built of green energy is the fantasy of a typical academic. Nobody created the industrial revolution. No government invented the steam engine which set it in motion and they NEVER designed or managed it.
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In fact, the government ALWAYS interferes and suppresses economic innovation. Britain imposed a law that anyone driving a new-fangled automobile had to have a man walk before it with a horn and a flag to warn people one of these machines was coming. By 1890, the mergers of all these small railroad companies led to the Marxist intervention known as the Sherman Anti-Trust Act. Sherman saw that mergers reduced jobs in the light of Marxism. The internet has been created in the very same way. Small startups are bought out and further the advancement of the whole.
Schwab is so wrong it is laughable. It demonstrates that academics cannot learn everything without experience. Communism collapsed for the very same reason that a planned society cannot replace human ingenuity because bureaucrats, like academics, lack the experience to actually see how the economy evolves.
These people are HIGHLY dangerous for they are fulfilling what our computer has been forecasting – the collapse of Western Civilization and the shift to China of the financial capital of the world. We DESPERATELY need to stop these people. They are destroying our future and that of our children because of their arrogance and lack of experience. If they remove Trump, they win for he is the ONLY person who would dare to prosecute any of these people.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--A School Dance in the Age of Corona

A School Dance in the Age of Corona

Socially distanced dancing in the age of coronavirus , mandated by so-called science believers .
pic.twitter.com/RqGydLbcfC

Socially distanced dancing in the age of coronavirus, mandated by so-called science believers. pic.twitter.com/RqGydLbcfC
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) October 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Orwell Is Turning – The first known database and live facial recognition system being used to hunt d

Orwell Is Turning – The first known database and live facial recognition system being used to hunt down kids suspected of criminal activity!

This is likely the first known database and live facial recognition system being used to hunt down kids suspected of @ @ @ @

This is likely the first known database and live facial recognition system being used to hunt down kids suspected of criminal activity. t.co/oeZEKTJo7F
— MIT Technology Review (@techreview) October 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Twitter’s trying to SHUT DOWN JAMES WOODS!

They are closing down conservative voices completely now .
Be prepared that you will no longer be able to see @ @ @ @ @ if indeed my account remains open at all .
Sorry , folks , but it @ @ @ @ @ they couldn ’ t care less what you think .
This is the face of @ @ @

They are closing down conservative voices completely now. Be prepared that you will no longer be able to see most of my communications, if indeed my account remains open at all. Sorry, folks, but it’s over. And they couldn’t care less what you think. This is the face of tyranny. t.co/POjc6fL5j6
— James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) October 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Have you noticed all world leaders are using the mantra BUILD BACK BETTER?

They ’ re all saying it – Biden , Trudeau , Johnson , Pakistan ’ s Khan… Here ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Biden and Boris Johnson .

They’re all saying it – Biden, Trudeau, Johnson, Pakistan’s Khan…
Here’s a two at once. Biden and Boris Johnson.
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Why does Joe Biden plagiarize foreign politicians so much? pic.twitter.com/odRfmIDxIY — Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) October 4, 2020
www.donaldjtrump.com/media/joe-biden-caught-plagiarizing-boris-johnsons-slogan-build-back-better/
Tess


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Kilimanjaro: Fire Breaks Out On Africa’s Tallest Mountain (Pics/Videos Inside)

Efforts are continuing in Tanzania to extinguish a fire that has broken out on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro , the highest peak in Africa… Members of the Tanzania National Parks Authority ( Tanapa ) and local people have been struggling to put out the blaze which began on Sunday… Their efforts have been hampered by the altitude as well as strong winds and dry weather which have caused the fire to spread fast… It is not clear how the fire started… Tanapa shared a blurred image on Twitter of the fire : “ The fire is still going on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ institutions and locals are continuing with the efforts to contain it , ” Pascal Shelutete , an official from Tanapa , told news agency Reuters… The parks authority said in a statement that it had taken “ every step to make sure that , the fire will not affect the lives of tourists , their equipment , porters and tour guides ” … Mount Kilimanjaro , which is 5,895m ( 19,341 feet ) high is a popular tourist destination and tens of thousands of people climb it every year… Mt .
Kilimanjaro Is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Locals

Efforts are continuing in Tanzania to extinguish a fire that has broken out on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, the highest peak in Africa…
Members of the Tanzania National Parks Authority (Tanapa) and local people have been struggling to put out the blaze which began on Sunday…
Their efforts have been hampered by the altitude as well as strong winds and dry weather which have caused the fire to spread fast…
It is not clear how the fire started…
Tanapa shared a blurred image on Twitter of the fire:
Moto umezuka Mlima Kilimanjaro leo mchana na jitihada za kuuzima bado zinaendelea. Taarifa zaidi zitafuatia. #TANAPANEWS BY @PASCALSHELUTETE pic.twitter.com/Jcfj6QlCf8 — Tanzania National Parks (@tzparks) October 11, 2020
“The fire is still going on and firefighters from Tanapa, other government institutions and locals are continuing with the efforts to contain it,” Pascal Shelutete, an official from Tanapa, told news agency Reuters…
The parks authority said in a statement that it had taken “every step to make sure that, the fire will not affect the lives of tourists, their equipment, porters and tour guides”…
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Mount Kilimanjaro, which is 5,895m (19,341 feet) high is a popular tourist destination and tens of thousands of people climb it every year…
……
Monday, 12 October 2020…
www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54508243
Mt. Kilimanjaro Is On Fire Since Sunday Night|| Video From Locals
h/t Blue Spirit


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Mainstream News Comes Clean – “Something deeply sinister called the Great RESET” is coming!

Here it is folks , straight from the mainstream Sky News , no need for any more “ conspiracy theories @ @

Here it is folks, straight from the mainstream Sky News, no need for any more “conspiracy theories”:
Can anyone here explain why only Sky Australia are being truthful? Did a private company buy them out?
Really thankful to anyone who can help me understand 🙏 — jon kirby (@jonkirbysthlm) October 12, 2020
The army used against its own people t.co/kEaM7CRBZ6 — jon kirby (@jonkirbysthlm) October 12, 2020
Facefuck exec: 150 men rule the world..
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Twitter Has Gone Completely Off The Rails….

As we continue to protect the integrity of # Election2020 conversation on Twitter , we 're announcing new , significant @ @ @ @ @ more context and encourage thoughtful consideration before Tweeting .
Tweets which include premature claims of @ @ @ @ @ will be labeled and direct people to our official US Election page in Explore .
@ @ @ @ @ interfere with the election process or the results will be removed.t.co/dDms913BHt

As we continue to protect the integrity of #Election2020 conversation on Twitter, we're announcing new, significant updates today that will bring more context and encourage thoughtful consideration before Tweeting.
Tweets which include premature claims of a victory in an election will be labeled and direct people to our official US Election page in Explore.
Tweets that encourage others to interfere with the election process or the results will be removed.t.co/dDms913BHt
— Twitter Support (@TwitterSupport) October 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Blexit: Blacks for Trump Invade DC, There is a storm a coming.

Not all Blacks are mentally ill for supporting Trump Sir .
Besides , Democrats have never done anything for us @ @ @ @ @ , welfare and ghettos to live in .
Shame that you believe just because you @ @ @ @ @ be a liberal .
@ hillharper @ IWashington # Blexit

🇺🇸 This is today's Back the Blue rally, a pro-police demonstration that was organized by the #Blexit Foundation, a conservative group founded by Candace Owens #BlacksForTrump #LawAndOrder #PoliceLivesMatter pic.twitter.com/XmhqUszEiJ — Based France Poland (@from_based) October 10, 2020
Disgusting I tell you! pic.twitter.com/Vl9FFHWZU1 — Vincent Kennedy (@VincentCrypt46) October 11, 2020
The #Blexit event in DC starting off right with the pledge of allegiance. 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/tZQdZHlmMj — Essential Fleccas 🇺🇸 (@fleccas) October 10, 2020
Today’s So Cal Truck Rally in Temecula. Only got flipped off a handful of times. 😂😂The honks totally outweighed the bird. pic.twitter.com/BQnZI234JO — Kristi (@pizmama) October 11, 2020
You have been manipulated to hate Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/ne459gcbYt — samanthamarika (@samanthamarika1) August 21, 2020
Not all Blacks are mentally ill for supporting Trump Sir. Besides, Democrats have never done anything for us except give us food stamps, welfare and ghettos to live in. Shame that you believe just because you are Black YOU HAVE to be a liberal. @hillharper @IWashington #Blexit — Hurricane007 (@Hurricane0073) September 25, 2019
California is going to hell. Vote Trump! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 12, 2020
h/t Jake
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Unrealistic Stock Market Expectations

Unrealistic Stock Market Expectations

The stimulus this year has been massive because it needed to save the economy from a disaster .
It was a fiscal and monetary lifeline .
The goal was to keep the economy alive until COVID-19 was brought under control .
Unfortunately , since COVID-19 is only partially under control , more fiscal help is needed to prevent a disaster .
The stock market clearly thinks a stimulus will pass because the small cap value stocks have been doing well .
The only uncertainty is whether it gets done before or after the election .
For the stock market , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stimulus gets passed in October or January , but for individuals and small businesses struggling , it ’ s a big deal .
The latest news is the White Houses raised its budget for a stimulus to $ 1.8 trillion which is just $ 400 billion below what the Democrats have .
The Democrats might be thinking that they can get everything they want if they just wait until after the election .
However , it would be beneficial if it passed this month and a patchwork deal that includes what the Dems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump actually claimed he wants a bigger deal than what both sides are offering which suggests it ’ s the GOP-led Senate rather than Trump stopping the vote .
There has already been intense stimulus like we mentioned .
As you can see from the chart on the right , if you combined fiscal policy , monetary policy , USD , and credit , the stimulus this year has been the largest in the past 30 years .
Some are actually claiming we have found a cure for recessions .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal consumption at the right time .
One of the usual major problems with stimuluses is late timing .
Some might say stimuluses don ’ t solve the problem that caused the recession .
That was certainly true with COVID-19 .
However , it does limit the damage while the problems are being solved .
Just doing a stimulus when a recession starts doesn ’ t solve the issue that caused it .
There will always be custom solutions to each crisis .
It ’ s unfortunate that the COVID-19 crisis occurred , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help .
In the next recession , even if it ’ s not as deep , quicker help could work .
To be clear , we are focusing on helping individuals .
Bailing out large businesses could have unintended consequences such as making the economy less dynamic .
When saving for retirement , it ’ s best to assume slightly lower returns than average to make sure you ’ re not relying on great investments to save enough .
It would be a disaster if you were too aggressive on return assumptions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to retire .
Obviously , it depends what you ’ re investing in .
Expecting 6 % returns on a globally diversified portfolio is fair .
Investor expectations for returns have gotten bizarrely high in some areas which is sure to disappoint them .
Ironically , when everyone is bullish because of recent returns , it ’ s the exact time to be more cautious .
There ’ s a massive difference between putting all your money in cash and expecting lower future returns .
You should do the latter , not the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Schroders , the expected 5 year average annual return in investment portfolios rose from 9.9 % in 2018 to 10.7 % in 2019 to 10.9 % in 2020 .
That ’ s high .
This survey was done from April 30th to June 15th this year .
People probably would be even more optimistic if they were surveyed from August to October .
Further , they are particularly optimistic in the Americas because the U.S. stock market led by FAAMG has had a great run .
It has been destroying European stocks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were recommending getting into emerging markets and out of America .
The consensus is usually wrong when everyone is on one side .
US investors think their returns will be 15.38 % annually in the next 5 years which is an absurdly high forecast .
They clearly are heavily invested in their home country which has been doing well ( home country bias ) .
Even investment advisors who are aware of home country bias are saying that the only people who should be biased towards their home country are Americans .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country bias which is a double mistake that can cost their clients money .
Of course , there are reasons American stocks have done well in the past 10 years .
However , mean reversion is has a longer track record .
It ’ s not a strong argument to base an allocation on a few large internet giants that have powered one country higher .
Competition and regulations effect all companies .
FAAMNG isn ’ t immune to risk .
To be clear , we ’ re taking a long term view @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these issues .
SPACs aren ’ t really an asset class .
The fact that anyone considers them an asset class shows how much a bubble they are in .
There are now 203 SPACs and 153 looking for a deal .
That ’ s up from under 100 in April .
Celebrities are trying to get involved .
This reminds us of the ICO craze which was associated with the crypto bubble .
SPACs are just an alternative way to raise capital .
That ’ s not an asset class .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the size of this category went from about $ 25 billion in April to above $ 80 billion in October .
A stimulus is coming soon whether it ’ s before or after the election .
If a stimulus is done right as the economy is weakening , it buys the policymakers time to solve the crisis .
It ’ s a good idea to give people checks .
Bailing out large businesses has unintended consequences .
US investors have such high expectations of their portfolios ’ future returns that the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Don ’ t plan your savings based on 15 % returns per year .
Generally , only great investors can achieve such gains .
SPACs are in a bubble .
The ‘ asset class ’ has gotten to $ 80 billion .

by UPFINA
The stimulus this year has been massive because it needed to save the economy from a disaster. It was a fiscal and monetary lifeline. The goal was to keep the economy alive until COVID-19 was brought under control. Unfortunately, since COVID-19 is only partially under control, more fiscal help is needed to prevent a disaster. The stock market clearly thinks a stimulus will pass because the small cap value stocks have been doing well. The only uncertainty is whether it gets done before or after the election. For the stock market, it doesn’t matter if a stimulus gets passed in October or January, but for individuals and small businesses struggling, it’s a big deal.
The latest news is the White Houses raised its budget for a stimulus to $1.8 trillion which is just $400 billion below what the Democrats have. The Democrats might be thinking that they can get everything they want if they just wait until after the election. However, it would be beneficial if it passed this month and a patchwork deal that includes what the Dems compromised on gets passed after the election. Trump actually claimed he wants a bigger deal than what both sides are offering which suggests it’s the GOP-led Senate rather than Trump stopping the vote.
Interesting – "Credit Suisse shows that the US composite standardised policy score is twice as loose as it was at the height of the GFC." h/t @MacroOps pic.twitter.com/R4CM8C5Ut9 — Kean Chan (@keanferdy) October 9, 2020
There has already been intense stimulus like we mentioned. As you can see from the chart on the right, if you combined fiscal policy, monetary policy, USD, and credit, the stimulus this year has been the largest in the past 30 years. Some are actually claiming we have found a cure for recessions. It’s certainly true that the stimulus boosted personal consumption at the right time. One of the usual major problems with stimuluses is late timing. Some might say stimuluses don’t solve the problem that caused the recession. That was certainly true with COVID-19. However, it does limit the damage while the problems are being solved.
Just doing a stimulus when a recession starts doesn’t solve the issue that caused it. There will always be custom solutions to each crisis. It’s unfortunate that the COVID-19 crisis occurred, but it shows the value in quick help. In the next recession, even if it’s not as deep, quicker help could work. To be clear, we are focusing on helping individuals. Bailing out large businesses could have unintended consequences such as making the economy less dynamic.
Ridiculous Assumptions
When saving for retirement, it’s best to assume slightly lower returns than average to make sure you’re not relying on great investments to save enough. It would be a disaster if you were too aggressive on return assumptions, causing you to not have enough money to retire. Obviously, it depends what you’re investing in. Expecting 6% returns on a globally diversified portfolio is fair. Investor expectations for returns have gotten bizarrely high in some areas which is sure to disappoint them. Ironically, when everyone is bullish because of recent returns, it’s the exact time to be more cautious. There’s a massive difference between putting all your money in cash and expecting lower future returns. You should do the latter, not the former.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
According to a survey by Schroders, the expected 5 year average annual return in investment portfolios rose from 9.9% in 2018 to 10.7% in 2019 to 10.9% in 2020. That’s high. This survey was done from April 30th to June 15th this year. People probably would be even more optimistic if they were surveyed from August to October. Further, they are particularly optimistic in the Americas because the U.S. stock market led by FAAMG has had a great run. It has been destroying European stocks.
We remember in 2007 when American advisors were recommending getting into emerging markets and out of America. The consensus is usually wrong when everyone is on one side. US investors think their returns will be 15.38% annually in the next 5 years which is an absurdly high forecast. They clearly are heavily invested in their home country which has been doing well (home country bias). Even investment advisors who are aware of home country bias are saying that the only people who should be biased towards their home country are Americans.
They are using recency bias to defend home country bias which is a double mistake that can cost their clients money. Of course, there are reasons American stocks have done well in the past 10 years. However, mean reversion is has a longer track record. It’s not a strong argument to base an allocation on a few large internet giants that have powered one country higher. Competition and regulations effect all companies. FAAMNG isn’t immune to risk. To be clear, we’re taking a long term view of allocation and expected returns when discussing these issues.
SPAC Bubble Is Approaching $100 Billion
SPACs aren’t really an asset class. The fact that anyone considers them an asset class shows how much a bubble they are in. There are now 203 SPACs and 153 looking for a deal. That’s up from under 100 in April. Celebrities are trying to get involved. This reminds us of the ICO craze which was associated with the crypto bubble. SPACs are just an alternative way to raise capital. That’s not an asset class.
As you can see from the chart below, the size of this category went from about $25 billion in April to above $80 billion in October.
SPACs just crossed $80 billion in market cap for the first time ever At this rate, by year end it'll be a $100 billion asset class pic.twitter.com/hRE0KJpVGN — The SPAC King 👑 (@JulianKlymochko) October 9, 2020
Conclusion
A stimulus is coming soon whether it’s before or after the election. If a stimulus is done right as the economy is weakening, it buys the policymakers time to solve the crisis. It’s a good idea to give people checks. Bailing out large businesses has unintended consequences. US investors have such high expectations of their portfolios’ future returns that the market is almost assuredly going to disappoint them. Don’t plan your savings based on 15% returns per year. Generally, only great investors can achieve such gains. SPACs are in a bubble. The ‘asset class’ has gotten to $80 billion.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Digital Dollars Coming To Your Phone: Alarming Plan Revealed

Join Mike Maloney as he connects the dots on some alarming evidence , showing that a digital dollar is not @ @ @ @ @ coming much sooner than you think .
Thank you as always for sharing this most @ @ @ @ @

Join Mike Maloney as he connects the dots on some alarming evidence, showing that a digital dollar is not only coming – it is coming much sooner than you think. Thank you as always for sharing this most important update from Mike.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Are We In The Stagnation Phase?

Are We In The Stagnation Phase?

The labor market ’ s rate of improvement is starting to slow .
Seasonally adjusted search results on recruitments , job applications , and job interviews have been stagnant for a few weeks .
The recent bout of weakness could stem from the outbreak of COVID-19 cases in a few states in the Midwest .
Obviously , states like the Dakotas don ’ t have big labor forces , but it ’ s still notable .
Adding to this weak data , in the week of October 3rd seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims were 840,000 , which was only down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was actually up 3,000 from the original reading before the revision .
Even worse , non-seasonally adjusted initial claims rose from 799,000 to 804,000 which means they have only fallen 35,000 since the first week of August .
It ’ s interesting to think some people believed Americans weren ’ t working purposely just to collect unemployment benefits .
With the decline in federal help not significantly pushing initial claims lower , we have evidence that was an incorrect theory .
No one wants to be on unemployment benefits because it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play out with the $ 600 in weekly benefits going away .
Most people always pick safety over a little extra money .
In the long run , it could make sense to get paid less than benefits ( for a few weeks ) because the job might not have been available if people didn ’ t return to work .
The only thing that might have caused people to not want their jobs back is fear of the virus .
Remember , California stopped processing unemployment claims .
The next report will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their PUAs will fall because they have a lot of fraud .
There might be a backlog of regular initial claims though .
We will be looking at California ’ s data closely .
The chart below shows the combination of PUAs and NSA initial claims fell .
That ’ s because PUAs fell 44,000 to 464,000 .
The combination fell 3 % this past week and 10 % in the prior week because of a big negative revision to Puerto Rico and Arizona data .
Specifically , PUAs were revised from 650,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 126,000 revision to Arizona ’ s data .
Arizona has had a disproportionate number of PUAs which has clearly been some sort of error .
Some economists say that they ‘ know the data is wrong , but it still looks bad ’ .
We say to heavily discount anything that ’ s incorrect .
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing many small businesses to be on life support while big companies negotiate bailouts .
Restaurants and movie theaters especially in New York and other places with harsh restrictions are in the worst shape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher .
The bigger restaurant chains that are well capitalized are actually benefiting from the demise of small restaurants .
Their stocks are rising in anticipation of less competition .
Continued claims from the week of September 26th fell from 11.979 million to 10.976 million which is more than a 1 million decline .
That sounds great , but hundreds of thousands of people are shifting towards PEUCs and extended benefits or are just dropping out of the labor force .
Some jobs are coming back , but the hardest hit areas are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t help small businesses now if a vaccine might be out in months .
As you can see from the chart above , in the week of September 19th , PEUCs rose from 1.8 million to 2 million and extended benefits rose from 268,000 to 352,000 .
If the trend continues , over 1/3rd of the drop in continued claims may have been a result of people ’ s benefits expiring/shifting to other programs .
With the spike in initial claims being the worst in late March and April , the spike in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ larger .
We might even shift our attention away from continued claims .
Keep in mind , pandemic assistance goes away in December .
If would be a complete disaster if 2 million people lost their benefits at once .
Restaurants face impending doom if they can ’ t open for full indoor dining .
For example , in NYC indoor dining is only allowed at 25 % capacity which isn ’ t enough to be profitable if they can ’ t have outdoor dining .
Outdoor dining isn ’ t feasible when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ November .
As you can see from the chart below , there starts to be a significant negative impact on seasonally adjusted restaurant bookings when the outside temperature falls to the mid to low 40s .
Winter is coming and it is about to wreak havoc on the already weak restaurant industry .
The good news is 12 million Abbott test kits were delivered to all 50 states .
The hope is people can show their negative test to eat indoors .
That ’ s not on the immediate horizon , but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have a normal season .
The Russell 2000 has underperformed this year .
The stock market has been led by large cap growth stocks , while the regional banks have been in the dog house .
That has changed in October .
As you can see from the chart below , the 10.99 % gain in the Russell 2000 in the past 10 days is one of its best performances in any 10 day period in the past 40 years .
Furthermore , the KBW small cap bank index is up 18.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while there has only been a modest increase in long yields .
The other possibility is these stocks like the movement towards more reliable and faster testing and better treatments .
Plus , they are pricing in another stimulus .
The jobless claims report wasn ’ t great especially when you consider the large spike in people on pandemic claims and extended benefits .
Restaurants are about to face a tough winter as their sales will plummet when temperatures fall into the 40s .
Interesting , small cap stocks and banks have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ modest rise in the long bond helps , but it hasn ’ t been that impressive .
Investors might be looking forward to a return to normalcy in 2021 and a stimulus .
Since the bottom in banks on the 23rd , Zoom stock is down 4.4 % .
Obviously , that ’ s underperformance , but it ’ s not enough to signal the market truly believes most people will return to work in person .

by UPFINA
The labor market’s rate of improvement is starting to slow. Seasonally adjusted search results on recruitments, job applications, and job interviews have been stagnant for a few weeks. The recent bout of weakness could stem from the outbreak of COVID-19 cases in a few states in the Midwest. Obviously, states like the Dakotas don’t have big labor forces, but it’s still notable.
Adding to this weak data, in the week of October 3rd seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims were 840,000, which was only down 9,000 from the prior week. It was actually up 3,000 from the original reading before the revision. Even worse, non-seasonally adjusted initial claims rose from 799,000 to 804,000 which means they have only fallen 35,000 since the first week of August.
It’s interesting to think some people believed Americans weren’t working purposely just to collect unemployment benefits. With the decline in federal help not significantly pushing initial claims lower, we have evidence that was an incorrect theory. No one wants to be on unemployment benefits because it’s a precarious situation. We saw that play out with the $600 in weekly benefits going away. Most people always pick safety over a little extra money. In the long run, it could make sense to get paid less than benefits (for a few weeks) because the job might not have been available if people didn’t return to work. The only thing that might have caused people to not want their jobs back is fear of the virus.
Remember, California stopped processing unemployment claims. The next report will show their restart. It seems like their PUAs will fall because they have a lot of fraud. There might be a backlog of regular initial claims though. We will be looking at California’s data closely.
The chart below shows the combination of PUAs and NSA initial claims fell. That’s because PUAs fell 44,000 to 464,000. The combination fell 3% this past week and 10% in the prior week because of a big negative revision to Puerto Rico and Arizona data. Specifically, PUAs were revised from 650,000 to 509,000 which was catalyzed by a 126,000 revision to Arizona’s data. Arizona has had a disproportionate number of PUAs which has clearly been some sort of error. Some economists say that they ‘know the data is wrong, but it still looks bad’. We say to heavily discount anything that’s incorrect.
Last wk, workers filed 804K UI initial claims + 464K PUA claims = another 1.27 million claims NSA#joblessclaims hit their lowest level since Mar, as PUA claims dropped, driven by downward revisions & drops in AZ & PR. UI+PUA claims together still over 1 million weekly. 1/ pic.twitter.com/LYnqV0auiQ — Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) October 8, 2020
Big Step Down In Continued Claims
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing many small businesses to be on life support while big companies negotiate bailouts. Restaurants and movie theaters especially in New York and other places with harsh restrictions are in the worst shape. That’s while stocks rally higher. The bigger restaurant chains that are well capitalized are actually benefiting from the demise of small restaurants. Their stocks are rising in anticipation of less competition.
PEUC & EB programs are making up an increasing share of claims as unemployed Americans exhaust their trad UI benefits. For wk of 9/19, PEUC + EB claims rose 238K, largest WoW increase since May.#joblessclaims 5/ pic.twitter.com/Auh7h1C4Fh — Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) October 8, 2020
Continued claims from the week of September 26th fell from 11.979 million to 10.976 million which is more than a 1 million decline. That sounds great, but hundreds of thousands of people are shifting towards PEUCs and extended benefits or are just dropping out of the labor force. Some jobs are coming back, but the hardest hit areas are still in trouble. It doesn’t help small businesses now if a vaccine might be out in months.
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As you can see from the chart above, in the week of September 19th, PEUCs rose from 1.8 million to 2 million and extended benefits rose from 268,000 to 352,000. If the trend continues, over 1/3rd of the drop in continued claims may have been a result of people’s benefits expiring/shifting to other programs. With the spike in initial claims being the worst in late March and April, the spike in PEUCs and EBs is going to grow larger. We might even shift our attention away from continued claims. Keep in mind, pandemic assistance goes away in December. If would be a complete disaster if 2 million people lost their benefits at once.
Restaurants Face Lower Temperatures
Restaurants face impending doom if they can’t open for full indoor dining. For example, in NYC indoor dining is only allowed at 25% capacity which isn’t enough to be profitable if they can’t have outdoor dining. Outdoor dining isn’t feasible when it starts to get cold out in November.
As you can see from the chart below, there starts to be a significant negative impact on seasonally adjusted restaurant bookings when the outside temperature falls to the mid to low 40s.
At what temperature does demand for outdoor dining collapse? Goldman says around 45-degrees Fahrenheit. (via @fundstrat) pic.twitter.com/s0oVfWq8Cs — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 8, 2020
Winter is coming and it is about to wreak havoc on the already weak restaurant industry. The good news is 12 million Abbott test kits were delivered to all 50 states. The hope is people can show their negative test to eat indoors. That’s not on the immediate horizon, but it’s the best chance for restaurants to have a normal season.
Major Role Reversal
The Russell 2000 has underperformed this year. The stock market has been led by large cap growth stocks, while the regional banks have been in the dog house. That has changed in October. As you can see from the chart below, the 10.99% gain in the Russell 2000 in the past 10 days is one of its best performances in any 10 day period in the past 40 years.
"While most prior big short-term rallies in the Russell 2000 have been a snapback from a prior decline, there was no big drop to snap back from this time around."
t.co/MSTyYoJubQ pic.twitter.com/GnoIqBhRZe — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 8, 2020
Furthermore, the KBW small cap bank index is up 18.3% since September 23rd. This is while there has only been a modest increase in long yields. The other possibility is these stocks like the movement towards more reliable and faster testing and better treatments. Plus, they are pricing in another stimulus.
Conclusion
The jobless claims report wasn’t great especially when you consider the large spike in people on pandemic claims and extended benefits. Restaurants are about to face a tough winter as their sales will plummet when temperatures fall into the 40s. Interesting, small cap stocks and banks have been doing relatively well in October. The modest rise in the long bond helps, but it hasn’t been that impressive. Investors might be looking forward to a return to normalcy in 2021 and a stimulus. Since the bottom in banks on the 23rd, Zoom stock is down 4.4%. Obviously, that’s underperformance, but it’s not enough to signal the market truly believes most people will return to work in person.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--QE without requiring governments to reform in exchange might turn out to be the greatest financial f

QE without requiring governments to reform in exchange might turn out to be the greatest financial folly in history.

QE w/o requiring gov'ts to reform in exchange might turn out to be the greatest financial folly in history. Then encouraging it to go global like that, now $27T. Structural problems/debt much worse now #Idiots@EricRosengren @RobSKaplan @neelkashkari @marydalyecon @RaphaelBostic t.co/D9eYHquWv1 — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) October 12, 2020
BOJ is the “whale in the pond” of Japanese financial markets: Has over 70% of ETF market. Share of corporate debt and commercial paper quickly building -> it is beginning to affect markets well beyond government debt. t.co/11JN9lfExk pic.twitter.com/86nuLNJZDU — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) October 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--“Markets rise on stimulus hopes”, but not for the reason you may think (SPY, VIX, JETS, etc)

Its ya boy Milt who wrote those Tendie Stimulus DD ’ s .
This is only meant to be political insomuch as it has a direct connection to market behavior .
Please don ’ t have a political debate in the comments and get me banned lol .
I ’ d send polling numbers and shit , but don ’ t have time to look it all up before I start work .
The info is out there , though .
If you ’ re like me , you were confused last week as DT tweeted for and against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ move with it .
We also saw a ton of COVID cases hit the administration , which caused overnight futures depression , but didn ’ t have the staying power to move SPY during trading hours .
The DOW is coming off one of it ’ s only good monthly runs of the year , and volatility is at absurd lows heading into an election .
What gives ?
In the daily threads I see a lot of people attribute the stubborn upward movement to Stimulus hopes , and this is true .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not hope Stimmy will get done before election–it is abundantly clear that won ’ t happen .
It ’ s also not market hopes that DT wins and makes good on his promise to deliver checks–the market follows pundits , and smart money , and all those have on a Mango loss ( I ’ m not picking a side ; I ’ m saying this is the information that is out there ) .
Lastly , it definitely ain ’ t hope that Trump ’ s tweet about a “ bigger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will lead to a larger amount–Senate Republicans who are not McConnell have made it clear they won ’ t sign off on a large package , potentially not even the 1.8 trillion that the WH floated last week .
The market is preparing for a probable “ Blue Wave ” –Dem control of the WH , Senate , and House–and the massive stimulus that would pass as a result .
The initial HEROES Act the Dem House wanted to pass was over 3 trillion , which was brought down to 2.2 trillion in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seem like a good starting point for GOP discussions .
IF–and i do mean IF–pundits are correct in their predictions of a Dem sweep , then the House and Senate would have complete control over the amount and dispersion of funding for the next Stimulus .
The initial 3.4 trillion the Democrats wanted to pass could easily rise to a spiteful 4 trillion with zero obstacles from another party .
This explains a few obvious market trends recently , like SPY ’ s continued rise , but also less obvious ones like : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ valuations reach new heights and lockdowns ease : Dem wins would mean more stringent protocols , which benefits big tech ( obviously ) as stay-at–home stocks could have prolonged relevance .
Couple that with the upcoming earnings season , and you got a nice tech stew going .
-Absurdly depressed volatility : A “ blue wave ” would mean financial policy consistency and shared vision , meaning that whatever happens in congressional decision-making would be without a certain level of conflict and therefore , increased expedience .
-Solar and weed stocks mooning : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m not saying any candidate–or congress–is better than the other .
I ’ m saying that the bulk of predictions are on Dem wins across the board , and MMs are acting accordingly , riding the wave up before we get there with surprised Pikachu face when a Joe win doesn ’ t tank the market .
We saw how wrong polls can get it in 2016 , but the numbers right now are pretty scathing .
———————————————- Plays : In the event of a sweep , I wouldn ’ t expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the board would be considered a “ mandate ” , and the Supreme Court nominating process will have them clamoring to clap back .
I ’ m looking at calls slightly OTM , one to three months out , for the stimulus winners on dips this week : Recovery retail : Small business closures , more stringent protocols and having had another quarter to integrate online systems will be good for : WMT 11/27 155c TGT 11/27 170c M 1/15 9c LOW 11/27 185c RUN is my solar play , they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beating but are in takeover mode via smart acquisitions and should head back up : RUN 11/20 75c RUN 12/28 80c Airlines : JETS leaps for January , and SAVE 22c 3/19 .
I really like SAVE cause its focus is domestic travel , so even as business and international travel die with the larger changing trends , SAVE is in position to profit off of people getting Stimmy money to go visit their parents , etc .
Auto : had a big run during COVID , likely due in part to UI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who didn ’ t have it .
Obviously KMX and CVNA , but I am very bullish on auto insurance because they haven ’ t gotten a lot of attention .
I believe PGR is going to knock earnings out the park and I have ( these are up 50 % -70 % since I bought this morning but that ’ s also partially IV ) PGR 10/16 100c PGR 10/16 105c PGR 11/20 110c Again , I really am not trying to say one candidate or party is better than the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explanation of what could be happening on a macro level , and I ’ ve worked in political fundraising for many years .
Do your own research , because I bought UVXY calls last week .
So , ya know .
*TLDR : Market doesn ’ t care about the daily stimulus hopes game , its banking on a Democratic sweep which would mean a larger and fairly quick stimmy getting passed .
Think further out , post election , rather than trying to react to news everyday .
* Disclaimer : This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by AllDatDalton
Its ya boy Milt who wrote those Tendie Stimulus DD’s. This is only meant to be political insomuch as it has a direct connection to market behavior. Please don’t have a political debate in the comments and get me banned lol. I’d send polling numbers and shit, but don’t have time to look it all up before I start work. The info is out there, though.
If you’re like me, you were confused last week as DT tweeted for and against the Stimulus, and volatility didn’t move with it. We also saw a ton of COVID cases hit the administration, which caused overnight futures depression, but didn’t have the staying power to move SPY during trading hours. The DOW is coming off one of it’s only good monthly runs of the year, and volatility is at absurd lows heading into an election. What gives?
In the daily threads I see a lot of people attribute the stubborn upward movement to Stimulus hopes, and this is true. Importantly, however, is that this is not hope Stimmy will get done before election–it is abundantly clear that won’t happen. It’s also not market hopes that DT wins and makes good on his promise to deliver checks–the market follows pundits, and smart money, and all those have on a Mango loss (I’m not picking a side; I’m saying this is the information that is out there). Lastly, it definitely ain’t hope that Trump’s tweet about a “bigger Stimulus than Democrats or Republicans want” will lead to a larger amount–Senate Republicans who are not McConnell have made it clear they won’t sign off on a large package, potentially not even the 1.8 trillion that the WH floated last week.
The market is preparing for a probable “Blue Wave”–Dem control of the WH, Senate, and House–and the massive stimulus that would pass as a result.
The initial HEROES Act the Dem House wanted to pass was over 3 trillion, which was brought down to 2.2 trillion in recent negotiations to make it at least seem like a good starting point for GOP discussions. IF–and i do mean IF–pundits are correct in their predictions of a Dem sweep, then the House and Senate would have complete control over the amount and dispersion of funding for the next Stimulus. The initial 3.4 trillion the Democrats wanted to pass could easily rise to a spiteful 4 trillion with zero obstacles from another party. This explains a few obvious market trends recently, like SPY’s continued rise, but also less obvious ones like:
-The continued rise in tech even as valuations reach new heights and lockdowns ease: Dem wins would mean more stringent protocols, which benefits big tech (obviously) as stay-at–home stocks could have prolonged relevance. Couple that with the upcoming earnings season, and you got a nice tech stew going.
-Absurdly depressed volatility: A “blue wave” would mean financial policy consistency and shared vision, meaning that whatever happens in congressional decision-making would be without a certain level of conflict and therefore, increased expedience.
-Solar and weed stocks mooning: this one is pretty obvious.
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I’m not saying any candidate–or congress–is better than the other. I’m saying that the bulk of predictions are on Dem wins across the board, and MMs are acting accordingly, riding the wave up before we get there with surprised Pikachu face when a Joe win doesn’t tank the market. We saw how wrong polls can get it in 2016, but the numbers right now are pretty scathing. ———————————————- Plays: In the event of a sweep, I wouldn’t expect Dems to move slow, since winning across the board would be considered a “mandate”, and the Supreme Court nominating process will have them clamoring to clap back. I’m looking at calls slightly OTM, one to three months out, for the stimulus winners on dips this week:
Recovery retail: Small business closures, more stringent protocols and having had another quarter to integrate online systems will be good for: WMT 11/27 155c TGT 11/27 170c M 1/15 9c LOW 11/27 185c
RUN is my solar play, they’ve taken a little bit of a beating but are in takeover mode via smart acquisitions and should head back up: RUN 11/20 75c RUN 12/28 80c
Airlines: JETS leaps for January, and SAVE 22c 3/19. I really like SAVE cause its focus is domestic travel, so even as business and international travel die with the larger changing trends, SAVE is in position to profit off of people getting Stimmy money to go visit their parents, etc.
Auto: had a big run during COVID, likely due in part to UI backpay giving folks a down payment ability who didn’t have it. Obviously KMX and CVNA, but I am very bullish on auto insurance because they haven’t gotten a lot of attention. I believe PGR is going to knock earnings out the park and I have (these are up 50%-70% since I bought this morning but that’s also partially IV) PGR 10/16 100c PGR 10/16 105c PGR 11/20 110c
Again, I really am not trying to say one candidate or party is better than the other, it’s just a logical explanation of what could be happening on a macro level, and I’ve worked in political fundraising for many years. Do your own research, because I bought UVXY calls last week. So, ya know.
*TLDR: Market doesn’t care about the daily stimulus hopes game, its banking on a Democratic sweep which would mean a larger and fairly quick stimmy getting passed. Think further out, post election, rather than trying to react to news everyday. *
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Feds may target Google’s Chrome browser for breakup

Google is really getting it from all angles : • Whatever the State AGs are going to focus on I @ @ @ @ @ divestiture of Chrome , Doubleclick , or any of their web-based advertising ecosystem would have @ @ @ @ @ company , but there are so many unknowns right now .

by NewMediaMogul
www.politico.com/news/2020/10/10/feds-may-target-googles-chrome-browser-for-breakup-428468
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Google is really getting it from all angles:
House Antitrust complaints (focusing on search dominance and censorship)
DOJ Investigation of advertising market
DOJ Investigation of Search
Whatever the State AGs are going to focus on
I’m not sure a divestiture of Chrome, Doubleclick, or any of their web-based advertising ecosystem would have a meaningful impact on the company, but there are so many unknowns right now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Made 46k on AMZN calls bought 3 weeks ago. Just sold it.

Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information @ @ @ @ @ you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

h/t TSLA-Is-Too-Low-IMO
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Ally adds “Consent to Share Personal Information” to Service Agreement; mentions the PATRIOT act

This has to do with the 314b regulations for know your customer .
How it works is that once a @ @ @ @ @ 314b database they can contact other banks to get information about a customer .
Basically @ @ @ @ @ it makes the banks responsible for knowing what their customers are up to .

www.ally.com/resources/pdf/bank/ally-bank-obsa.pdf
This has to do with the 314b regulations for know your customer. How it works is that once a bank signs up to the 314b database they can contact other banks to get information about a customer.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Basically like Carnage says above, it makes the banks responsible for knowing what their customers are up to.
CTE