investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--3,500% return from a safe ‘forever asset’

In the year 1649 after nearly a decade of painstaking work , the legendary Dutch artist Rembrandt van Rijn put the finishing touches on one of his masterpieces : Christ Healing the Sick .
The piece is considered a technical and artistic marvel , proving without doubt that Rembrandt ’ s skills were truly ahead of his time .
So it ’ s no surprise that he sold the piece for a record-setting 100 Dutch guilders… an incomprehensible amount of money to pay for art at the time .
A lot of people probably thought the buyer was crazy for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the masterpiece was passed down through the generations for more than 200 years .
And when it came up for sale again in 1867 , it was purchased for the equivalent of nearly 12,000 Dutch guilders… more than 100x the original price paid in 1649 .
Rembrandt paintings don ’ t change hands too often these days ; in fact there are only three of his works that are still privately owned .
16 million euros would have been the equivalent of more than 35 million Dutch guilders ( based on the final @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was replaced by the euro ) .
You might be thinking– “ That seems like a phenomenal return on investment– from 100 to 12,000 to 35+ million.
” But the return on investment works out to be just 3.5 % per year , compounded annually over the past 371 years .
There are a few key lessons from this– First , never underestimate the power of compound interest .
Even small amounts compounded over long periods of time can really add up .
Second : 3.5 % is actually a great return given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means it held its value , and then some .
This probably seems counterintuitive since we ’ re accustomed to higher investment returns ; big “ blue chip ” companies like Disney and Coca Cola , for example , generate average returns for their investors that are much greater .
But even the biggest , most powerful companies typically don ’ t last 371 years .
They go out of business .
They get acquired .
They fade into obscurity .
In Rembrandt ’ s time in the 1600s , the most powerful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ East India Company ; it was the first-ever publicly traded corporation , and it set records for its massive profitability .
But by 1800 it was out of business .
In the early 1900s , Sears was the largest and most prominent retailer in the world .
But today it ’ s bankrupt and struggling to keep its doors open .
In the 1990s , Yahoo dominated the Internet .
Yahoo executives were so certain of the company ’ s success that in 1998 they flat out rejected the opportunity to buy a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million .
Yahoo reached a peak valuation of $ 125 billion in 2000 .
But fifteen years later , Verizon bought Yahoo ’ s assets for less than $ 4.5 billion .
Don ’ t get me wrong– I ’ m not suggesting that businesses are bad investments .
In fact , I ’ ve long believed that the best investment is a great business .
A great business is a ‘ real asset ’ , so its value rises during inflationary times .
During times of deflation , it produces vital cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it scoops up the market share of its failed competitors and emerges stronger than ever .
Yet most businesses are not forever assets , as the East India Company , Sears , Yahoo , and so many other examples show .
Great businesses require great management .
But at some point in the future , even the most successful companies may hand the reins over to a new generation of incompetent executives .
So even Google , Coke , Facebook , Disney , Amazon , and the next great startup may someday fade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imagine .
A forever asset is something like a Rembrandt .
It doesn ’ t depend on a team of executives to manage it , yet it can still have value hundreds of years from now .
The downside of a Rembrandt is that there ’ s still some physical risk .
We ’ re seeing Bolshevik revolutionaries running around now defacing property , burning down buildings , and targeting anyone with wealth .
I wonder how long a Rembrandt would last under their watch .
Even under normal circumstances , a painting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not too much moisture , not too much sunlight .
Gold , on the other hand , has none of those risks .
It ’ s practically indestructible .
You can drop it and it won ’ t break .
It doesn ’ t rust .
Melt it down and it is still valuable .
It ’ s small enough to store securely , or transport if need be .
And it REALLY holds its value .
The amount of gold it took to buy a high-end house 1,100 years ago in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same price of a high-end home today .
4,000 years before that , merchants in the fertile crescent , at the very birth of civilization , were trading gold in exchange for goods .
Obviously most people don ’ t consider too many generations into the future when making investment decisions .
Most of us invest for the here and now… so it ’ s nice that gold has a lot of upside investment potential today .
As I ’ ve written before , the more money that central bankers print in their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becomes .
And I just wrote earlier this week that silver has already become one of the best performing assets in the world right now , plus gold has also been quite strong .
But aside from having substantial present-day potential , gold is also a forever asset that has already proven its worth over 5,000 years .
Gold has outlasted every company , every piece of art , every government bond .
And when you look at the universe of investment options , there just aren ’ t a lot of things @ @ @ @ @ @

by Simon Black
In the year 1649 after nearly a decade of painstaking work, the legendary Dutch artist Rembrandt van Rijn put the finishing touches on one of his masterpieces: Christ Healing the Sick.
The piece is considered a technical and artistic marvel, proving without doubt that Rembrandt’s skills were truly ahead of his time.
So it’s no surprise that he sold the piece for a record-setting 100 Dutch guilders… an incomprehensible amount of money to pay for art at the time.
A lot of people probably thought the buyer was crazy for paying such a high price.
But the masterpiece was passed down through the generations for more than 200 years. And when it came up for sale again in 1867, it was purchased for the equivalent of nearly 12,000 Dutch guilders… more than 100x the original price paid in 1649.
Rembrandt paintings don’t change hands too often these days; in fact there are only three of his works that are still privately owned.
16 million euros would have been the equivalent of more than 35 million Dutch guilders (based on the final exchange rate in 1999 when the guilder was replaced by the euro).
You might be thinking– “That seems like a phenomenal return on investment– from 100 to 12,000 to 35+ million.”
But the return on investment works out to be just 3.5% per year, compounded annually over the past 371 years.
There are a few key lessons from this–
First, never underestimate the power of compound interest. Even small amounts compounded over long periods of time can really add up.
Second: 3.5% is actually a great return given the length of time involved. It means it held its value, and then some.
This probably seems counterintuitive since we’re accustomed to higher investment returns; big “blue chip” companies like Disney and Coca Cola, for example, generate average returns for their investors that are much greater.
But even the biggest, most powerful companies typically don’t last 371 years. They go out of business. They get acquired. They fade into obscurity.
In Rembrandt’s time in the 1600s, the most powerful company in the world was the Dutch East India Company; it was the first-ever publicly traded corporation, and it set records for its massive profitability.
But by 1800 it was out of business.
In the early 1900s, Sears was the largest and most prominent retailer in the world. But today it’s bankrupt and struggling to keep its doors open.
In the 1990s, Yahoo dominated the Internet. Yahoo executives were so certain of the company’s success that in 1998 they flat out rejected the opportunity to buy a little startup called Google for $1 million.
Yahoo reached a peak valuation of $125 billion in 2000. But fifteen years later, Verizon bought Yahoo’s assets for less than $4.5 billion.
Don’t get me wrong– I’m not suggesting that businesses are bad investments. In fact, I’ve long believed that the best investment is a great business.
A great business is a ‘real asset’, so its value rises during inflationary times. During times of deflation, it produces vital cash. And during times of crisis, it scoops up the market share of its failed competitors and emerges stronger than ever.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Yet most businesses are not forever assets, as the East India Company, Sears, Yahoo, and so many other examples show.
Great businesses require great management. But at some point in the future, even the most successful companies may hand the reins over to a new generation of incompetent executives.
So even Google, Coke, Facebook, Disney, Amazon, and the next great startup may someday fade, as hard as that is to imagine.
A forever asset is something like a Rembrandt. It doesn’t depend on a team of executives to manage it, yet it can still have value hundreds of years from now.
The downside of a Rembrandt is that there’s still some physical risk.
We’re seeing Bolshevik revolutionaries running around now defacing property, burning down buildings, and targeting anyone with wealth. I wonder how long a Rembrandt would last under their watch.
Even under normal circumstances, a painting must be stored in the right environment– not too much moisture, not too much sunlight.
Gold, on the other hand, has none of those risks.
It’s practically indestructible. You can drop it and it won’t break. It doesn’t rust. Melt it down and it is still valuable.
It’s small enough to store securely, or transport if need be.
And it REALLY holds its value.
The amount of gold it took to buy a high-end house 1,100 years ago in the Islamic Kingdom of Cordoba equals about the same price of a high-end home today.
4,000 years before that, merchants in the fertile crescent, at the very birth of civilization, were trading gold in exchange for goods.
Obviously most people don’t consider too many generations into the future when making investment decisions.
Most of us invest for the here and now… so it’s nice that gold has a lot of upside investment potential today.
As I’ve written before, the more money that central bankers print in their Covid bailouts, the more valuable gold becomes.
And I just wrote earlier this week that silver has already become one of the best performing assets in the world right now, plus gold has also been quite strong.
But aside from having substantial present-day potential, gold is also a forever asset that has already proven its worth over 5,000 years.
Gold has outlasted every company, every piece of art, every government bond.
And when you look at the universe of investment options, there just aren’t a lot of things you can say that about.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Killings of Police Officers Are Up 28% This Year: Reports | Law & Crime

The killing of a Washington State police officer on July 13 marked the death of the 32nd U.S. law enforcement officer in 2020 — a year which has seen violent protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd and a 28 % increase in “ felonious officer deaths over the same period in 2019.
” That ’ s according to ABC News , which cited a review of FBI data .
Seven of those 32 officers were “ ambushed , ” the report says .
Accompanying the cries for police reform in the wake of Floyd ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-police sentiment that , experts say , manifested itself in attacks on officers , patrol vehicles and precinct stationhouses , leaving cops around the country feeling under siege , ” ABC said .
It is unclear to some experts whether correlation necessarily means causation in the case of this year ’ s spike in the killings of law enforcement officers : though the Floyd death and the rise in officer deaths are temporally related , a professor of political science at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York told ABC that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a direct link between the two data points .
“ There is a constant search for the scapegoat for whatever is happening in the society and the scapegoat ends up being law enforcement regardless of what it is that people have grievances about , ” Maria “ Maki ” Haberfeld told ABC .

The killing of a Washington State police officer on July 13 marked the death of the 32nd U.S. law enforcement officer in 2020 — a year which has seen violent protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd and a 28% increase in “felonious officer deaths over the same period in 2019.” That’s according to ABC News, which cited a review of FBI data. Seven of those 32 officers were “ambushed,” the report says.
Accompanying the cries for police reform in the wake of Floyd’s death “was a rise in an anti-police sentiment that, experts say, manifested itself in attacks on officers, patrol vehicles and precinct stationhouses, leaving cops around the country feeling under siege,” ABC said.
It is unclear to some experts whether correlation necessarily means causation in the case of this year’s spike in the killings of law enforcement officers: though the Floyd death and the rise in officer deaths are temporally related, a professor of political science at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York told ABC that it is probably too early to draw a direct link between the two data points.
“There is a constant search for the scapegoat for whatever is happening in the society and the scapegoat ends up being law enforcement regardless of what it is that people have grievances about,” Maria “Maki” Haberfeld told ABC.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Brazil’s prez Bolsonaro tests positive for COVID-19 for third time

Brazil ’ s President Jair Bolsonaro again tested positive for the novel coronavirus , indicating he must remain in isolation @ @ @ @ @ office said .
Following his third positive test , taken on Tuesday , the office @ @ @ @ @ saying the head of state was nevertheless “ in good condition ” , Xinhua news @ @ @ @ @ “ President Jair Bolsonaro continues to be in good condition , accompanied by the presidency @ @ @ @ @ The test taken by the president yesterday , ( July ) 21 , resulted positive @ @ @ @ @ .

Third time’s the charm?
Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro again tested positive for the novel coronavirus, indicating he must remain in isolation, the president’s office said.
Nevertheless “in good condition”: Bolsonaro
Following his third positive test, taken on Tuesday, the office in Brasilia issued a statement saying the head of state was nevertheless “in good condition”, Xinhua news agency reported on Wednesday.
“President Jair Bolsonaro continues to be in good condition, accompanied by the presidency’s medical team. The test taken by the president yesterday, (July) 21, resulted positive,” said the statement.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Mitre Corporation: Only People With Low Ability Would Think Facial Recognition Is Biased

A secretive Homeland Security front company claims that facial recognition is far ahead of the public ’ s understanding .
And because it is so far ahead of our understanding , only people with low ability would think it is biased .
Before I address the Mitre Corporation ’ s absurd claim , I think the public ’ s unfathomable understanding of facial recognition needs some clarification .
According to a recent Forbes article , Mitre Corp. is a $ 1- $ 2 billion dollar government-linked Skunk Works company .
“ Armed with 8,000 employees and an annual budget of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion of taxpayers ’ money , Mitre Corp. , a government-linked Skunk Works , has been making bleeding-edge breakthroughs for U.S. agencies for more than six decades .
With its HQ housed in four towers atop a hill in McLean , Virginia , Mitre ’ s research centers employ some of the nation ’ s leading computer scientists and engineers to build digital tools for America ’ s top military , security and intelligence organizations.
” “ Going back to 2009 , the year when the Homeland Security-funded Mitre lab—the Homeland Security Systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more left-field work was being undertaken in a study dubbed Human Odor as a Biometric for Deception.
” The Mitre Corp. is so proud of their relationship with DHS , they created the “ Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute ” which “ helps DHS improve its performance in critical functions such as acquisition processes , risk and program management , information technology engineering , and decision-making capabilities.
” In other words , DHS uses the Mitre Corp. to help justify using “ information technology ” like facial recognition to create highly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mitre Corp ’ s .
claim that facial recognition is far ahead of the public ’ s understanding .
Mr. Blackburn begins by saying , “ face recognition is pretty darn difficult to understand , and for the most part , we ’ re not really listening to the people with experience.
” I guess all the recent studies proving facial recognition is biased are wrong and we should only listen to a Mitre Corp. representative , right ?
‘ Only people with low ability think facial recognition is biased ’ According to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know facial recognition is biased even though they don ’ t understand how it works .
“ He emphasized that while the basic technology is easy to understand , it ’ s extremely difficult to grasp in any detail .
It relates to the Dunning-Kruger Effect , where people are most confident in the subjects they know the least about .
Sounds weird , but as we start to learn about something , we think we get it , and then we realize , okay I didn ’ t know all the nuances.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public ’ s understanding of facial recognition is insulting .
Wikipedia says , “ in the field of psychology , the Dunning–Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability.
” “ We ’ re persuaded most by big fears—surveillance and privacy obviously being big fears .
When I talk with people in this community , they ’ re actually amazed , because the vast majority of news articles , opinion pieces and even some of the policy recommendations that we see includes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been very problematic , ” Blackburn said .
So what he is saying is that people with low ability can ’ t comprehend it and therefore think facial recognition is biased .
Blackburn ’ s flawed logic is based on talking to people in the AI/biometric surveillance community , I.E.
, Homeland Security who feign disbelief that facial recognition is inaccurate .
Even people with so-called “ low abilities ” can understand how facial recognition destroy ’ s everyone ’ s privacy .
A 55 page PowerPoint presentation titled “ MITRE Corporation Pose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Blackburn ’ s claims and shows error rates ranging anywhere from 26.3 percent to 87.7 percent .
We really should not be surprised when a government-linked Skunk Works company claims that no one but Mitre Corp. and DHS employees really understand facial recognition .

by mapi
A secretive Homeland Security front company claims that facial recognition is far ahead of the public’s understanding. And because it is so far ahead of our understanding, only people with low ability would think it is biased. Before I address the Mitre Corporation’s absurd claim, I think the public’s unfathomable understanding of facial recognition needs some clarification. According to a recent Forbes article, Mitre Corp. is a $1-$2 billion dollar government-linked Skunk Works company.
“Armed with 8,000 employees and an annual budget of between $1 billion and $2 billion of taxpayers’ money, Mitre Corp., a government-linked Skunk Works, has been making bleeding-edge breakthroughs for U.S. agencies for more than six decades. With its HQ housed in four towers atop a hill in McLean, Virginia, Mitre’s research centers employ some of the nation’s leading computer scientists and engineers to build digital tools for America’s top military, security and intelligence organizations.” “Going back to 2009, the year when the Homeland Security-funded Mitre lab—the Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute—was founded, some more left-field work was being undertaken in a study dubbed Human Odor as a Biometric for Deception.” The Mitre Corp. is so proud of their relationship with DHS, they created the “Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute” which “helps DHS improve its performance in critical functions such as acquisition processes, risk and program management, information technology engineering, and decision-making capabilities.”
In other words, DHS uses the Mitre Corp. to help justify using “information technology” like facial recognition to create highly intrusive profiles of everyone. Back to Mitre Corp’s. claim that facial recognition is far ahead of the public’s understanding. The AFCEA’s Signal magazine recently interviewed Duane Blackburn, a MITRE Corporation S&T policy analyst.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! Mr. Blackburn begins by saying, “face recognition is pretty darn difficult to understand, and for the most part, we’re not really listening to the people with experience.” I guess all the recent studies proving facial recognition is biased are wrong and we should only listen to a Mitre Corp. representative, right? ‘Only people with low ability think facial recognition is biased’ According to Blackburn, the public thinks that they know facial recognition is biased even though they don’t understand how it works. “He emphasized that while the basic technology is easy to understand, it’s extremely difficult to grasp in any detail. It relates to the Dunning-Kruger Effect, where people are most confident in the subjects they know the least about. Sounds weird, but as we start to learn about something, we think we get it, and then we realize, okay I didn’t know all the nuances.” Using the Dunning-Kruger Effect to describe the public’s understanding of facial recognition is insulting. Wikipedia says,“in the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability.”
“We’re persuaded most by big fears—surveillance and privacy obviously being big fears. When I talk with people in this community, they’re actually amazed, because the vast majority of news articles, opinion pieces and even some of the policy recommendations that we see includes false information, and that’s been very problematic,” Blackburn said. So what he is saying is that people with low ability can’t comprehend it and therefore think facial recognition is biased. Blackburn’s flawed logic is based on talking to people in the AI/biometric surveillance community, I.E., Homeland Security who feign disbelief that facial recognition is inaccurate. Even people with so-called “low abilities” can understand how facial recognition destroy’s everyone’s privacy. A 55 page PowerPoint presentation titled “MITRE Corporation Pose Correction for Automatic Facial Recognition” contradicts Blackburn’s claims and shows error rates ranging anywhere from 26.3 percent to 87.7 percent. We really should not be surprised when a government-linked Skunk Works company claims that no one but Mitre Corp. and DHS employees really understand facial recognition.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Americans Are Buying Guns in Record Numbers: Left-Wing Media Organizations Aren’t Pleased

Americans Are Buying Guns in Record Numbers .
The Washington Post Isn ’ t Pleased .
Social scientists have been trying for many years to blame homicides on the presence of guns .
A favorite tool in this quest is the use of studies that show a correlation between gun ownership and crime .
These studies are then reported as “ evidence ” that the presence of guns causes crime .
But there ’ s always been a problem with this attempt at showing causality between guns and homicides : causality can just as plausibly go the other way .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ where the local population feels they are in danger of being crime victims , people are more likely to purchase guns for protection .
So , rather than saying “ guns cause crime , ” we should be saying “ crime causes guns.
” New Gun Purchases Soar as Uncertainty and Violence Increase We ’ re likely seeing this phenomenon at work now .
In recent months , according to the firearm industry ’ s trade group National Shooting Sports Foundation ( NSSF ) , Americans have purchased millions of guns : Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ general unrest as a result of the government-mandated lockdowns .
Potential first-time buyers still on the fence about buying a firearm in May were perhaps confirmed in their fears by the riots that erupted after the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officers .
Then , in the wake of the riots , serious violent crime appeared to spike .
It was widely reported , for instance , that homicides in New York City spiked “ 21 percent in first six months of 2020.
” Crime in other cities increased as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 200 percent in Nashville to 23 percent in Kansas City , Missouri .
Naturally , seeing these news stories , many potential gun owners are more likely to conclude that they need a gun for personal protection .
This is especially true when combined with a perception that police organizations can not be relied upon to engage in crime prevention and enforcement .
And this has indeed been the perception in many places where police have appeared unwilling to intervene in June ’ s riots .
Many normal people would see these events @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result from fears over crime and uncertainty .
But now , perhaps predictably , left-wing media organizations like the Washington Post are trying to turn this narrative around : people aren ’ t buying guns as a reaction to violence and social disarray , the Post insists .
All those new gun purchases are what ’ s causing the violence in the first place .
The Post cites two new reports , one from the Brookings Institution and another from the University of California , both of which conclude that the rise in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gun violence.
” Note the careful use of language here , though : the gun purchases are “ associated ” with an increase in gun violence , since causality can not be established .
Indeed , near the bottom of the Post article , the author admits : Of course , if one is already committed to the idea that guns cause crime , it makes perfect sense that millions of Americans in early 2020—after passing a criminal background check—will buy guns , and then almost immediately use those guns to commit crimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the two studies referenced by the Post article even imply that homicides result from more gun purchases .
The Brookings study , for instance , is more of an op-ed than a study .
It ’ s simply a review of some past events which were followed by surges in gun purchases , including the Sandy Hook and Parkland shootings .
This appears to be true indeed , and is a helpful reminder that people do often purchase firearms in light of concerns over personal safety , or at least in light @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The UC study is a bit more specific , but even this is far too general to be of any use in concluding that gun purchases lead to violence .
Because of data limitations , the UC report , of course , doesn ’ t establish that the people who bought firearms this year are responsible for any increase in crime that may be occurring .
But it ’ s not even established that surges in gun purchases correlate with surges in crime at the city or neighborhood levels .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not really on a statewide or even metro-wide level .
Homicide trends in the US tend to be dominated by homicides in a relatively small number of cities and neighborhoods .
For example , the homicide rate in Baltimore is ten times that of the US overall .
But this doesn ’ t mean homicides in Maryland are remarkably high .
So , have firearms purchases surged near the neighborhoods in Chicago , New York , and Kansas City where surges in crime have also occurred ?
It ’ s possible , since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel the most at risk .
On the other hand , it ’ s also entirely possible that firearms sales are occurring in places relatively distant from the places with surging homicides .
The UC study only appears to give a state-level reading on this .
In other words , the study really tells us very little .
Ryan McMaken ( @ ryanmcmaken ) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute .
Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ author of Commie Cowboys : The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre .

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
Americans Are Buying Guns in Record Numbers. The Washington Post Isn’t Pleased.
Social scientists have been trying for many years to blame homicides on the presence of guns. A favorite tool in this quest is the use of studies that show a correlation between gun ownership and crime. These studies are then reported as “evidence” that the presence of guns causes crime.
But there’s always been a problem with this attempt at showing causality between guns and homicides: causality can just as plausibly go the other way. That is, in times and places where the local population feels they are in danger of being crime victims, people are more likely to purchase guns for protection. So, rather than saying “guns cause crime,” we should be saying “crime causes guns.”
New Gun Purchases Soar as Uncertainty and Violence Increase
We’re likely seeing this phenomenon at work now.
In recent months, according to the firearm industry’s trade group National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), Americans have purchased millions of guns:
The early part of 2020 has been unlike any other year for firearm purchases—particularly by first-time buyers—as new NSSF® research reveals millions of people chose to purchase their first gun during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fox News reports:
Gun sales have skyrocketed during the past three months, and a record-breaking 80.2 percent increase in sales was reported in May compared to last year, according to the shooting foundation. April’s data showed a 71.3 percent increase from 2019, and there was an 85.3 percent increase in March, according to information previously released by Small Arms Analytics and Forecasting.
Many new gun owners during this period feared general unrest as a result of the government-mandated lockdowns. Potential first-time buyers still on the fence about buying a firearm in May were perhaps confirmed in their fears by the riots that erupted after the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officers. Then, in the wake of the riots, serious violent crime appeared to spike. It was widely reported, for instance, that homicides in New York City spiked “21 percent in first six months of 2020.” Crime in other cities increased as well, ranging from a jump of over 200 percent in Nashville to 23 percent in Kansas City, Missouri.
Naturally, seeing these news stories, many potential gun owners are more likely to conclude that they need a gun for personal protection. This is especially true when combined with a perception that police organizations cannot be relied upon to engage in crime prevention and enforcement. And this has indeed been the perception in many places where police have appeared unwilling to intervene in June’s riots.
Many normal people would see these events as an illustration of how gun purchases result from fears over crime and uncertainty.
But now, perhaps predictably, left-wing media organizations like the Washington Post are trying to turn this narrative around: people aren’t buying guns as a reaction to violence and social disarray, the Post insists. All those new gun purchases are what’s causing the violence in the first place.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Says the Post:
Americans purchased millions more guns than usual this spring, spurred in large part by racial animosity stoked by widespread protests over the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, as well as anxiety over the effects of the covid-19 pandemic. That gun-buying binge is associated with a significant increase in gun violence across the United States.
The Post cites two new reports, one from the Brookings Institution and another from the University of California, both of which conclude that the rise in gun purchases has likely caused more “gun violence.”
Note the careful use of language here, though: the gun purchases are “associated” with an increase in gun violence, since causality cannot be established. Indeed, near the bottom of the Post article, the author admits:
The authors [of the Brookings and UC reports] caution that a study of this nature cannot prove causality, particularly at a time of massive social upheaval in a country dealing with an unprecedented public health crisis as well as a nationwide protest movement.
Of course, if one is already committed to the idea that guns cause crime, it makes perfect sense that millions of Americans in early 2020—after passing a criminal background check—will buy guns, and then almost immediately use those guns to commit crimes.
Moreover, it’s unclear that the two studies referenced by the Post article even imply that homicides result from more gun purchases.
The Brookings study, for instance, is more of an op-ed than a study. It’s simply a review of some past events which were followed by surges in gun purchases, including the Sandy Hook and Parkland shootings. This appears to be true indeed, and is a helpful reminder that people do often purchase firearms in light of concerns over personal safety, or at least in light of concerns about future access to firearms.
The UC study is a bit more specific, but even this is far too general to be of any use in concluding that gun purchases lead to violence. Because of data limitations, the UC report, of course, doesn’t establish that the people who bought firearms this year are responsible for any increase in crime that may be occurring. But it’s not even established that surges in gun purchases correlate with surges in crime at the city or neighborhood levels. This is critical, since trends in homicides are not really on a statewide or even metro-wide level. Homicide trends in the US tend to be dominated by homicides in a relatively small number of cities and neighborhoods. For example, the homicide rate in Baltimore is ten times that of the US overall. But this doesn’t mean homicides in Maryland are remarkably high.
So, have firearms purchases surged near the neighborhoods in Chicago, New York, and Kansas City where surges in crime have also occurred? It’s possible, since people bordering the most violent neighborhoods may feel the most at risk. On the other hand, it’s also entirely possible that firearms sales are occurring in places relatively distant from the places with surging homicides. The UC study only appears to give a state-level reading on this. In other words, the study really tells us very little.
Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken
Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--US DOLLAR just getting bludgeoned by both the Fed and Fiscal

Deutsche Bank ’ s Top Analyst : “ I Am A Gold Bug ; Fiat Money Is A Passing Fad @ @ @ @ @ The Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change That Will Skyrocket Inflation @ @ @ @ @ research suggests that refraining from liftoff until inflation reaches 2 % could lead to some @ @ @ @ @ would help offset the previous underperformance .
”

US DOLLAR: just getting bludgeoned by both the Fed and Fiscal @stevenmnuchin1 Destroying the purchasing power of The People = Inflating their cost of living (even if they have a job) pic.twitter.com/23odRMsdzd — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) July 23, 2020
One of these days, the MMT believers will have to confront the real cost of the Debt – their inability to retire and need to save a LOT more than any of their ancestors in history did and what that means for future GDP and consumption Interest rates used to 'afford' the debt👇🤔 pic.twitter.com/H5GuRM7WKu — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) July 22, 2020
COPPER: inflates another +0.5% as the US government devalues the US Dollar pic.twitter.com/lblvtrR0yq — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) July 23, 2020
Tumbling Dollar Unleashes Precious-Metals Rally t.co/GOAx3f06e0 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 23, 2020
“Gold is definitely a fiat money hedge.”
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Brainard pointed out that “research suggests that refraining from liftoff until inflation reaches 2% could lead to some modest temporary overshooting, which would help offset the previous underperformance.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--TRI-STATE NIGHTMARE, RESTAURANT CLOSURES, SMALL BUSINESSES BRACE FOR LONG CRISIS

More Than Half of US Covid Lockdown Closures Permanent : Yelp [ Bloomberg ] How can any restaurant survive ?
@

Short on Cash, Small Businesses Brace for Long Crisis t.co/IyCg5vgSSP
Retail Carnage Deepens as Pandemic’s Impact Exceeds Forecasts t.co/QMtlTuPSUY
More Than Half of US Covid Lockdown Closures Permanent: Yelp [Bloomberg]
How can any restaurant survive? pic.twitter.com/ubNaY04mQN
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--A warning to America from Yugoslavia – Don’t do what we did!

A woman who fled the former nation of Yugoslavia discuss how socialism led to the downfall of the nation and @ @ @ @ @ parallel what happened there .

A woman who fled the former nation of Yugoslavia discuss how socialism led to the downfall of the nation and how events happening in America parallel what happened there.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Justice on the Supreme Court

Justice on the Supreme Court

COMMENT : I suppose you support Trump and stuffing the court with more conservative judges !
REPLY : Sorry , @ @ @ @ @ predetermined mold .
I am a strict constructionist .
If it is not in the @ @ @ @ @ valid .
The Constitution is NEGATIVE , not positive .
What you think are constitutional @ @ @ @ @ upon the government ; they shall not deny you those rights .
I am in @ @ @ @ @ the conservative judges as they simply default to the position of the government .
In @ @ @ @ @ Bader Ginsburg , who has liver cancer , she will not step down out of @ @ @ @ @ and a liberal justice can replace her .
I do not believe in creating things @ @ @ @ @ Constitution , such as immunity for judges , prosecutors , and police .
That was @ @ @ @ @ in the Declaration of Independence .
I fail to see where the Supreme Court has @ @ @ @ @ immunity out of thin air that is not in the Constitution .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I suppose you support Trump and stuffing the court with more conservative judges!
PN
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REPLY: Sorry, I do not fit your predetermined mold. I am a strict constructionist. If it is not in the Constitution, it is not valid. The Constitution is NEGATIVE, not positive. What you think are constitutional rights are actually NEGATIVE commands upon the government; they shall not deny you those rights. I am in serious disagreement with most of the conservative judges as they simply default to the position of the government.
In the case of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who has liver cancer, she will not step down out of hope that Trump will lose and a liberal justice can replace her. I do not believe in creating things that are NOT in the Constitution, such as immunity for judges, prosecutors, and police. That was one of the express complaints in the Declaration of Independence. I fail to see where the Supreme Court has any such power to create immunity out of thin air that is not in the Constitution.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--4 Banks Lose $248.8 Million For Each Dollar Silver Rises

You ’ ve heard for years about how the # silvermarket has been manipulated , and that some of the @ @ @ @ @ position .
Well , according to the CFTC ’ s latest data , that is @ @ @ @ @ means that a couple of these banks got their clock cleaned pretty good over the @ @ @ @

4 Banks Lose $248.8 Million Each Time #Silver Rises A Dollar
You’ve heard for years about how the #silvermarket has been manipulated, and that some of the banks have a massive short position.
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Well, according to the CFTC’s latest data, that is still the case, which means that a couple of these banks got their clock cleaned pretty good over the last few days.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--MNUCHIN: Trump Prefers DIRECT PAYMENTS Over Payroll Tax Holiday SO PEOPLE GET MORE MONEY TO SPEND IN

MNUCHIN: Trump Prefers DIRECT PAYMENTS Over Payroll Tax Holiday SO PEOPLE GET MORE MONEY TO SPEND IN AUGUST!

But it may be in version 5.0 , says Mnuchin .
In speaking with CNBC this Thursday morning , Treasury @ @ @ @ @ among other things : Mnuchin also said Americans spent the first CARES stimulus direct deposit @ @ @ @ @ Hypothetically speaking , and not to be taken as a suggestion , or advice , @ @ @ @ @ willing and able to save any direct federal fiscal stimulus , ( AKA ‘ free @ @ @ @ @ finds its way into one ’ s bank account , might want to buy real @ @ @ @ @ physical silver , that is , hand over fist .
Additionally , on the subject @ @ @ @ @ “ states have the ability to tax…It ’ s unfair for states like Florida to @ @ @ @ @ New York ” :

via silverdoctors:
Not in version 4.0.
But it may be in version 5.0, says Mnuchin.
In speaking with CNBC this Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that, among other things:
Mnuchin also said Americans spent the first CARES stimulus direct deposit money at small businesses.
Hypothetically speaking, and not to be taken as a suggestion, or advice, or whatever, but anybody willing and able to save any direct federal fiscal stimulus, (AKA ‘free money’), that finds its way into one’s bank account, might want to buy real money, physical gold or physical silver, that is, hand over fist.
Additionally, on the subject of bail-outs, Mnuchin said “states have the ability to tax…It’s unfair for states like Florida to be bailing out states like New York”:


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--The world is going back to a GOLD STANDARD as the US dollar is about to collapse

As the world grapples with Covid-19 , precious metals ’ prices are pushing higher .
Massive moves in gold and @ @ @ @ @ to veteran stockbroker Peter Schiff .
The rise in gold and silver price is “ @ @ @ @ @ this is just the beginning of a much bigger move , according to Schiff .
@ @ @ @ @ about to collapse and when it does , gold is going to take its place @ @ @ @ @ out of the dollar any day , and gold could go through the roof any @ @ @ @ @ is a real race and you have to get out of the dollar before it @ @ @ @ @ ” Schiff said .
We believe we are at the early stage of the biggest @ @ @ @ @ of economics .
As the massive monetary and massive fiscal stimuli ( over $ 15T @ @ @ @ @ the economy from a deflationary depression , they will cause instead a hyperinflationary economic collapse…

As the world grapples with Covid-19, precious metals’ prices are pushing higher. Massive moves in gold and silver are coming, according to veteran stockbroker Peter Schiff. The rise in gold and silver price is “about to explode” and this is just the beginning of a much bigger move, according to Schiff.
“The US dollar is about to collapse and when it does, gold is going to take its place. The bottom can drop out of the dollar any day, and gold could go through the roof any day. So, this is a real race and you have to get out of the dollar before it’s too late,” Schiff said.
Silver is up more than 13% so far today, while #Bitcoin is barely up 2%. #Silver is the new Bitcoin, except with direct utility. So while Bitcoin bugs are dreaming about Bitcoin going to the moon, they are missing the real life moonshot in silver. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) July 22, 2020
www.rt.com/business/495482-gold-standard-return-dollar-collapse/
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We believe we are at the early stage of the biggest Cobra Effect in the history of economics. As the massive monetary and massive fiscal stimuli (over $15T globally) conjoin to save the economy from a deflationary depression, they will cause instead a hyperinflationary economic collapse…
www.thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2020/07/21/the-cobra-effect/
h/t Tess


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Jobs Gone, Businesses Gone, People Fleeing! Economy Falling To Weakest Point.

Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment – CNNMoney
money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
US-unemployment-claims-2020-07-16-continued-state-federal-NSA-stacked.png (486×420)
wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/US-unemployment-claims-2020-07-16-continued-state-federal-NSA-stacked.png
Rural real estate prices rise as people consider leaving cities
www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/rural-real-estate-prices-rise-people-consider-leaving-cities-n1234309
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Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times
www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
Australia faces avalanche of business failures in September ‘fiscal cliff’ – Reuters
www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia-bankrupt/australia-faces-avalanche-of-business-failures-in-september-fiscal-cliff-idUSKCN24L0UU
EU leaders reach a breakthrough on the region’s recovery fund
www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/eu-leaders-reach-a-breakthrough-on-the-regions-recovery-fund.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--RULES ARE FOR THE LITTLE PEOPLE:  D.C. mayor exempts many city and federal government workers from s

RULES ARE FOR THE LITTLE PEOPLE:  D.C. mayor exempts many city and federal government workers from strict new mask order.

D.C. mayor exempts many city and federal government workers from strict new mask order .
Washington , D.C. , Mayor @ @ @ @ @ an order mandating that people in the district wear facial coverings when they are outside @ @ @ @ @ exceptions for city and federal workers on the job .
The order requires people to @ @ @ @ @ if they will ever come near other people , even briefly .
“ Persons leaving @ @ @ @ @ mask when they are likely to come into contact with another person , such as @ @ @ @ @ another person for more than a fleeting time , ” the order declares .
The @ @ @ @ @ exceptions from the strict new rules for many city and federal government workers , stipulating @ @ @ @ @ of this Order shall not be applied to persons in the judicial or legislative branches @ @ @ @ @ those persons are on duty ; and shall not apply to any employees of the @ @ @ @ @ on duty .
”

D.C. mayor exempts many city and federal government workers from strict new mask order.
Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser on Wednesday issued an order mandating that people in the district wear facial coverings when they are outside, while carving out large exceptions for city and federal workers on the job.
The order requires people to don the face coverings outdoors if they will ever come near other people, even briefly.
“Persons leaving their residences shall wear a mask when they are likely to come into contact with another person, such as being within six feet of another person for more than a fleeting time,” the order declares.
The mayor’s order makes exceptions from the strict new rules for many city and federal government workers, stipulating: “The enforcement provisions of this Order shall not be applied to persons in the judicial or legislative branches of the District government while those persons are on duty; and shall not apply to any employees of the federal government while they are on duty.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Hospital with 9% Positive Erroneously Reports 98% Positive

Reports are popping up all over the country that testing centers are over reporting the true number of coronavirus cases @ @ @ @ @ Pearson Sharp has more as hospitals admit their data is flawed .

Reports are popping up all over the country that testing centers are over reporting the true number of coronavirus cases. One America’s Pearson Sharp has more as hospitals admit their data is flawed.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--This woman is exactly why Portland is in the state it’s in. Terrible leadership. Activists are not l

This woman is exactly why Portland is in the state it’s in. Terrible leadership. Activists are not leaders.

The most powerful person in Portland ?

Portland Fire Commissioner Bans Police From Staging At Fire Stations
bluelivesmatter.blue/portland-fire-commissioner-bans-police-from-staging-at-fire-stations/
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The most powerful person in Portland?
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Today’s surveys show that any economic recovery in France remains distant

Today out focus shifts to the second largest economy in the Euro area as La Belle France takes centre stage .
Let us open with the thoughts of the finance minister on the economic state of play .
PARIS ( Reuters ) – Recent economic indicators for France are satisfactory but too fragile to change the forecast for an 11 % economic contraction this year , Bruno Le Maire said Thursday .
The Minister of the Economy , speaking to the National Assembly for the debate on the orientation of public finances for 2021 , said he expected economic growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and expressed the will that the in 2022 , activity returns to its levels preceding the crisis linked to the new coronavirus .
Only a politician could use the words “ satisfactory ” and “ too fragile ” in the same sentence and it is a grim one of a 11 % decline in GDP ( Gross Domestic Product ) for this year .
This means that the expectations for France are worse than those for the Euro area as a whole .
So around 3 % worse which is interesting and I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of predicting most but far from all of it returning in 2021 .
That is what you call making a forecast that is like an each-way bet where if you do recover no-one will care and if you do worse than that you highlight you did not expect a full recovery .
The truth is that none of us know how 2020 will finish let alone what will happen next year .
Maybe the quote below suffers from translation from French but “ expressed the will ?
” What does that mean ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be bad with a likely double-digit fall in economic output .
Right Here , Right Now This morning has brought the latest in the long-running official survey on the economy .
The ending of the lockdown has seen a welcome rally of 7 points but sadly only to 85 % of the long-term average .
If we look back though I note it was recording a relatively high 105 which makes me mull this .
I think the relevant number is the contraction in the last quarter of 2019 and how does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As the fall is only 0.1 % we could argue the economy was flat lining but we still have a measure recording growth when there wasn ’ t any .
Going back to the survey we see a similar pattern but weaker number for employment .
The position here is particularly bad .
Looking ahead the order book does not look exactly auspicious either .
If we look back this measure had a recent peak around 112 as 2018 began .
This represented quite a rally compared to the dips below 90 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But after that peak it began slip-sliding away to around 100 and now well you can see above .
Whilst debt hits the headlines the breakdown of the GDP data shows that it is not the only thing going on .
The pandemic has seen higher levels of saving which has two drivers I think .
Firstly many simply could not spend their money as so many outlets closed .
Next those who can look like they have been indulging in some precautionary saving which is something of a disaster for supporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at ying here is part of the yang .
So we see that pandemic France was borrowing more and regular readers will have noted this from past articles .
For the year as a whole France had its nose pressed against the Growth and Stability Pact threshold of 3 % of GDP .
I know some of you measure an economy by tax receipts so they were 1.275 trillion in 2019 .
Moving to the national debt we see this .
Looking ahead this is the view of the Bank of France .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sharp drop in economic output followed by plenty of rhetoric about a sharp recovery next year .
However the surveys we have looked at show a very partial recovery so far so that the “ V-shaped ” hopium users find themselves singing along with Bonnie Tyler .
Switching to the mounting debt burden it is a clear issue in terms of capital and if you like the weight of the debt .
Also estimates of economies at around 120 % of GDP went spectacularly wrong in the Euro area crisis .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ten-year yield of -0.19 % France is often being paid to issue debt .
Although care is needed because the ECB does not buy ultra long bonds ( 30 years is its limit ) meaning that France has a fifty-year bond yield of 0,58 % .
We should not forget that even the latter is very cheap , especially in these circumstances .
Also there is this from the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde .

by Shaun Richards
Today out focus shifts to the second largest economy in the Euro area as La Belle France takes centre stage. Let us open with the thoughts of the finance minister on the economic state of play.
PARIS (Reuters) – Recent economic indicators for France are satisfactory but too fragile to change the forecast for an 11% economic contraction this year, Bruno Le Maire said Thursday. The Minister of the Economy, speaking to the National Assembly for the debate on the orientation of public finances for 2021, said he expected economic growth of 8% for France next year and expressed the will that the in 2022, activity returns to its levels preceding the crisis linked to the new coronavirus.
Only a politician could use the words “satisfactory” and “too fragile” in the same sentence and it is a grim one of a 11% decline in GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) for this year. This means that the expectations for France are worse than those for the Euro area as a whole.
The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged -8.3%, 5.7% and 2.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. ( ECB 16th July)
So around 3% worse which is interesting and I note that there is a similar pattern of predicting most but far from all of it returning in 2021. That is what you call making a forecast that is like an each-way bet where if you do recover no-one will care and if you do worse than that you highlight you did not expect a full recovery. The truth is that none of us know how 2020 will finish let alone what will happen next year. Maybe the quote below suffers from translation from French but “expressed the will?”
expressed the will that the in 2022, activity returns to its levels preceding the crisis
What does that mean? So let us move on knowing 2020 will be bad with a likely double-digit fall in economic output.
Right Here, Right Now
This morning has brought the latest in the long-running official survey on the economy.
In July 2020, the business climate has continued its recovery started in May. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business managers from the main market sectors, has gained 7 points. At 85, the business climate is however still significantly below its long-term average (100), and a fortiori below its relatively high pre-lockdown level (105).
The ending of the lockdown has seen a welcome rally of 7 points but sadly only to 85% of the long-term average. If we look back though I note it was recording a relatively high 105 which makes me mull this.
In Q1 2020, real gross domestic product (GDP)* fell sharply: -5.3% after -0.1% in Q4 2019, thus a revision of +0.5% compared with the first estimate published in April.
I think the relevant number is the contraction in the last quarter of 2019 and how does that relate to a relatively high reading. As the fall is only 0.1% we could argue the economy was flat lining but we still have a measure recording growth when there wasn’t any.
Going back to the survey we see a similar pattern but weaker number for employment.
In July 2020, the employment climate has continued to recover sharply from the April low. At 77, it has gained 10 points compared to June, but it still remains far below its pre-lockdown level.
Manufacturing
The position here is particularly bad.
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve. The composite indicator has gained 4 points compared to June, after losing 30 points in April due to the health crisis. However, at 82, it remains far below its long term average (100).
Looking ahead the order book does not look exactly auspicious either.
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In July 2020, slightly fewer industrialists than in June have declared their order books to be below normal. The balances of opinion on total and foreign order books have very slightly recovered. Both stand at very low levels although slightly higher than in 2009.
If we look back this measure had a recent peak around 112 as 2018 began. This represented quite a rally compared to the dips below 90 seen at times in 2012 and 13. But after that peak it began slip-sliding away to around 100 and now well you can see above.
Saving
Whilst debt hits the headlines the breakdown of the GDP data shows that it is not the only thing going on.
At the same time, household consumption fell (-5.6% after +0.3%), resulting in a sharp rise of the saving rate to 19.6% after 15.1% in Q4 2019.
The pandemic has seen higher levels of saving which has two drivers I think. Firstly many simply could not spend their money as so many outlets closed. Next those who can look like they have been indulging in some precautionary saving which is something of a disaster for supporters of negative interest-rates.
National Debt
Having just looked at ying here is part of the yang.
In Q1 2020 the public deficit increased by 1.1 points: 4.8% of GDP after 3.7% in Q4 2019.
So we see that pandemic France was borrowing more and regular readers will have noted this from past articles. For the year as a whole France had its nose pressed against the Growth and Stability Pact threshold of 3% of GDP. I know some of you measure an economy by tax receipts so they were 1.275 trillion in 2019.
Moving to the national debt we see this.
At the end of Q1 2020, Maastricht’s debt reached €2,438.5 billion, a €58.4 billion increase in comparison to Q4 2019. It accounted for 101.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), 3.1 points higher than last quarter, the highest increase since Q2 2019.
Looking ahead this is the view of the Bank of France.
As a result of the wider deficit and the fall in GDP, government debt should rise substantially to 119% of GDP in 2020, from 98.1% in 2019, and should scarcely decline over the rest of the projection horizon. The average debt-to-GDP ratio for the euro area should also increase in parallel, but to a more limited extent (to 101% of GDP in 2022, easing to 100% by end-2022).
Comment
There are some familiar patterns of a sharp drop in economic output followed by plenty of rhetoric about a sharp recovery next year. However the surveys we have looked at show a very partial recovery so far so that the “V-shaped” hopium users find themselves singing along with Bonnie Tyler.
I was lost in France
In the fields the birds were singing
I was lost in France
And the day was just beginning
Switching to the mounting debt burden it is a clear issue in terms of capital and if you like the weight of the debt. Also estimates of economies at around 120% of GDP went spectacularly wrong in the Euro area crisis. But in terms of debt costs then with a ten-year yield of -0.19% France is often being paid to issue debt. Although care is needed because the ECB does not buy ultra long bonds ( 30 years is its limit) meaning that France has a fifty-year bond yield of 0,58%. We should not forget that even the latter is very cheap, especially in these circumstances.
Also there is this from the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde.
In my interview with @IgnatiusPost , I explained that price stability and climate change are closely related. Consequently, we must take climate-related risks into account in our central banking activities.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--State medical boards threaten doctors over HCQ use. ‘It’s a political drug now, not a medical drug’.

State medical boards threaten doctors over HCQ use. ‘It’s a political drug now, not a medical drug’. Could save 75-100k lives.

“ I think we are basically fighting a propaganda war against the medical facts ” “ 75,000 to 100,000 lives @ @ @ @ @ the drug was used widely and perhaps as a prophylactic , meaning in a preventative @ @ @ @ @ hydroxychloroquine could save 100,000 lives — but it ’ s being stifled by a ‘ @ @ @ @ @ slum contained a possible COVID-19 disaster with hydroxychloroquine .
“ Indian doctors used hydroxychloroquine ( @ @ @ @ @ preventive ) treatment — the same drug the American media have politicized.
” The ICMR @ @ @ @ @ HCQ for the following categories : “ all asymptomatic healthcare workers involved in containment and @ @ @ @ @ healthcare workers working in non-COVID hospitals/non-COVID areas of COVID hospitals/blocks ” ; “ symptomatic frontline @ @ @ @ @ workers deployed in containment zones and paramilitary/police personnel involved in COVID-19 related activities ” ; @ @ @ @ @ of laboratory confirmed cases.
” In other words , HCQ is for anyone with the @ @ @ @ @ .

by dukof
Yale epidemiology professor Dr. Harvey Risch, on Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) :
“It’s a political drug now, not a medical drug,”
“I think we are basically fighting a propaganda war against the medical facts”
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“75,000 to 100,000 lives would be saved” if the drug was used widely and perhaps as a prophylactic, meaning in a preventative manner.
Yale professor says hydroxychloroquine could save 100,000 lives — but it’s being stifled by a ‘propaganda war’
This Indian slum contained a possible COVID-19 disaster with hydroxychloroquine. “Indian doctors used hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for prophylaxis (preventive) treatment — the same drug the American media have politicized.”
Plus:
The ICMR guidelines recommend prophylactic use of HCQ for the following categories: “all asymptomatic healthcare workers involved in containment and treatment of COVID19 and asymptomatic healthcare workers working in non-COVID hospitals/non-COVID areas of COVID hospitals/blocks”;
“symptomatic frontline workers, such as surveillance workers deployed in containment zones and paramilitary/police personnel involved in COVID-19 related activities”; and
“symptomatic household contacts of laboratory confirmed cases.”
In other words, HCQ is for anyone with the slightest chance of contracting COVID-19.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Building Wealth | The Simple Secrets No One Ever Taught You

Building wealth is a long process .
Not many inherit a fortune and windfall gains are equally rare .
That doesn ’ t imply everyone can not aspire to build substantial wealth over a lifetime .
Such a quest does require a lot of patience , meticulous planning , and timely executed tactics .
Building wealth may seem daunting , but it is possible and a few simple secrets can assist you in your journey .
There are innumerable books about wealth .
“ The Millionaire Next Door ” lists many common traits among people who have amassed significant wealth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Secrets of the Millionaire Mind ” , and “ Think and Grow Rich ” are some amazingly helpful resources you may want to check out .
Wealthy people have many common attributes , similar to how those who mismanage their finances often commit the same mistakes .
Here are some of the attributes you will find in most people who have accumulated wealth with even more ideas here at Dough Roller .
• None Wealthy people set goals and chart a path to achieve them .
They do not wait to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They have a vision and chalk out the essential steps to reach the preset milestones .
• None Wealthy people are proactive with savings and investments .
Most wealthy individuals who retire early begin investing in their twenties and consolidating their wealth through the thirties .
• None Wealthy people prioritize stable employment or a dependable source of income .
Many wealthy retirees spend three to four decades with the same company .
Hence , they cash in on pension benefits , a considerably high salary to end their career , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • None Wealthy people rely on experts .
They don ’ t try to work on their taxes .
They entrust professionals to do what they are best at .
Building wealth needs more than reading what the experts in various niches have to say .
One has to go out and mingle with some of these experts .
Any time spent on an unproductive engagement , personally or professionally , is a wasted opportunity .
• None Wealthy individuals are always protective of their financial assets and credibility .
Your credit score @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Those who mismanage their credit score often do not get the financial assistance when required .
It should also be noted that a high credit score leads to a considerably lower interest rate on significant purchases , such as a house or a car .
• None Building wealth demands more than one source of income .
Employed individuals can have investments .
Self-employed professionals or entrepreneurs can diversify to have multiple sources of revenue .
A single source of income is usually shackling and becomes a hindrance to attaining financial independence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from their investments , government benefits such as social security , pension in case of retirees , part-time work , and rental income , among others .
• None Wealthy people like to be busy .
The most common imageries of wealth are sailing on a yacht , driving a luxury car , and splurging money on nonessential indulgences .
In reality , those who spend a lifetime building wealth are working most of the time .
One can be busy with a second job , learning a new skill , exploring a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that can help to acquire more wealth .
• None Wealthy people do not indulge in unnecessary spending .
They do not practice austerity , but all their expenses are calculated and they pull back the reins whenever there are some red flags .
They are also proactive with their savings .
If they are not using something , they are going to stop paying for that service .
They don ’ t buy products that have no significant utility in their lives .
They have stringent budgets , not just weekly or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• None Wealthy people understand that money is not the endgame .
They do not rely on money to secure happiness , to feel exuberant , or to establish themselves as superior to others .
They recognize that money is essential for many things in life , but it is not an end in itself .
• None Wealthy individuals are disciplined .
They are not only financially disciplined but also in the context of their overall lifestyle .
Most of the wealthy people who have worked hard for almost their entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attend balls every third day .
They are patient , pragmatic , and committed .
There are a few simple realities you must remember if you want to accumulate and sustain wealth .
First , you must have a steady income , preferably from more than one source .
Second , you must save money , ideally even before you begin spending what you earn .
Third , you must steer clear of debt .
Fourth , you should create and preserve wealth .
Below are a few simple ways to start building @ @ @ @ @ @ @ savings target .
Choose a sum that you are comfortable with and what you can practically set aside .
Do not touch this saving , even if the going gets tough .
• None Look for rewarding interests to grow your savings .
You should specifically search for savings programs where there is compound interest .
The effect may not be too fascinating in a few months , but the net gain after several years , or decades , can be life-altering .
• None Start investing .
Many people wait to become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are rich today had started investing when they had little to spare .
Invest in mutual funds , buy some stocks of a reliable company , and forget about it and look for sensible business investment opportunities around you .
• None Consider a Registered Retirement Savings Plan .
You will not only be able to park your savings , but you can also get a tax refund .
• None Plan an emergency fund and protect it .
Many people save regularly and then use the fund whenever there is some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emergency fund can not be the same account .
The money set aside for emergency is your rainy day fund .
The savings are your steps to acquiring wealth .
• None Secure a line of credit , from a bank or some other financial institution .
Credit cards are a hindrance to building wealth , even if you are cautious and methodical with its use and repayment .
Line of credit usually has a much lower rate of interest than the cards .
• None Consider a Registered Education Savings Plan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ fund for the education of your children , but you will also secure a tax shelter .
There is a federal grant of twenty percent on such savings worth as much as five thousand dollars per annum .
• None Always get experts whenever you are considering a major investment .
For instance , seek the assistance of a mortgage broker when you buy a house and need a home loan .
Banks or lenders pay these mortgage brokers a finder ’ s fee .
You can avoid all the hassle , yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broker will get you the lowest rate for your home loan .
• None Consider a Tax Free Savings Account .
This can help your short term and long-run savings program .
TFSA can save you as much as five thousand per annum and you do not pay tax on withdrawal or earning .
• None Finally , you should consider financial advice .
Wealthy people do not try to be in charge of everything .
They rely on expert advice .
Financial planning , taxes , investments , contracts , and savings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex .
You should also consider different types of insurance to protect yourself , your dear ones , and your nest egg .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

Building wealth is a long process. Not many inherit a fortune and windfall gains are equally rare. That doesn’t imply everyone cannot aspire to build substantial wealth over a lifetime. Such a quest does require a lot of patience, meticulous planning, and timely executed tactics. Building wealth may seem daunting, but it is possible and a few simple secrets can assist you in your journey.
There are innumerable books about wealth. “The Millionaire Next Door” lists many common traits among people who have amassed significant wealth. “The Millionaire Mind”, “Secrets of the Millionaire Mind”, and “Think and Grow Rich” are some amazingly helpful resources you may want to check out.
Common Attributes of Wealthy Individuals
Wealthy people have many common attributes, similar to how those who mismanage their finances often commit the same mistakes. Here are some of the attributes you will find in most people who have accumulated wealth with even more ideas here at Dough Roller.
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Wealthy people set goals and chart a path to achieve them. They do not wait to get lucky. Their financial goals are clear. They have a vision and chalk out the essential steps to reach the preset milestones.
Wealthy people are proactive with savings and investments. Most wealthy individuals who retire early begin investing in their twenties and consolidating their wealth through the thirties.
Wealthy people prioritize stable employment or a dependable source of income. Many wealthy retirees spend three to four decades with the same company. Hence, they cash in on pension benefits, a considerably high salary to end their career, and a significant 401(k).
Wealthy people rely on experts. They don’t try to work on their taxes. They entrust professionals to do what they are best at. Building wealth needs more than reading what the experts in various niches have to say. One has to go out and mingle with some of these experts. Any time spent on an unproductive engagement, personally or professionally, is a wasted opportunity.
Wealthy individuals are always protective of their financial assets and credibility. Your credit score, for instance, is an asset. Those who mismanage their credit score often do not get the financial assistance when required. It should also be noted that a high credit score leads to a considerably lower interest rate on significant purchases, such as a house or a car.
Building wealth demands more than one source of income. Employed individuals can have investments. Self-employed professionals or entrepreneurs can diversify to have multiple sources of revenue. A single source of income is usually shackling and becomes a hindrance to attaining financial independence. Many wealthy individuals earn recurring returns from their investments, government benefits such as social security, pension in case of retirees, part-time work, and rental income, among others.
Wealthy people like to be busy. The most common imageries of wealth are sailing on a yacht, driving a luxury car, and splurging money on nonessential indulgences. In reality, those who spend a lifetime building wealth are working most of the time. One can be busy with a second job, learning a new skill, exploring a new business idea, or understanding concepts that can help to acquire more wealth.
Wealthy people do not indulge in unnecessary spending. They do not practice austerity, but all their expenses are calculated and they pull back the reins whenever there are some red flags. They are also proactive with their savings. If they are not using something, they are going to stop paying for that service. They don’t buy products that have no significant utility in their lives. They have stringent budgets, not just weekly or monthly, but for an entire year.
Wealthy people understand that money is not the endgame. They do not rely on money to secure happiness, to feel exuberant, or to establish themselves as superior to others. They recognize that money is essential for many things in life, but it is not an end in itself.
Wealthy individuals are disciplined. They are not only financially disciplined but also in the context of their overall lifestyle. Most of the wealthy people who have worked hard for almost their entire lives do not party every evening and attend balls every third day. They are patient, pragmatic, and committed.
Simple Ways to Start Building Wealth
There are a few simple realities you must remember if you want to accumulate and sustain wealth. First, you must have a steady income, preferably from more than one source. Second, you must save money, ideally even before you begin spending what you earn. Third, you must steer clear of debt. Fourth, you should create and preserve wealth. Below are a few simple ways to start building wealth.
Have a monthly savings target. Choose a sum that you are comfortable with and what you can practically set aside. Do not touch this saving, even if the going gets tough.
Look for rewarding interests to grow your savings . You should specifically search for savings programs where there is compound interest. The effect may not be too fascinating in a few months, but the net gain after several years, or decades, can be life-altering.
Start investing. Many people wait to become rich before they consider investing. Those who are rich today had started investing when they had little to spare. Invest in mutual funds, buy some stocks of a reliable company, and forget about it and look for sensible business investment opportunities around you.
Consider a Registered Retirement Savings Plan. You will not only be able to park your savings, but you can also get a tax refund.
Plan an emergency fund and protect it. Many people save regularly and then use the fund whenever there is some financial trouble. Your savings and the emergency fund cannot be the same account. The money set aside for emergency is your rainy day fund. The savings are your steps to acquiring wealth.
Secure a line of credit, from a bank or some other financial institution. Credit cards are a hindrance to building wealth, even if you are cautious and methodical with its use and repayment. Line of credit usually has a much lower rate of interest than the cards.
Consider a Registered Education Savings Plan. This will not only set aside a fund for the education of your children, but you will also secure a tax shelter. There is a federal grant of twenty percent on such savings worth as much as five thousand dollars per annum.
Always get experts whenever you are considering a major investment. For instance, seek the assistance of a mortgage broker when you buy a house and need a home loan. Banks or lenders pay these mortgage brokers a finder’s fee. You can avoid all the hassle, yet secure a favorable proposition. A mortgage broker will get you the lowest rate for your home loan.
Consider a Tax Free Savings Account. This can help your short term and long-run savings program. TFSA can save you as much as five thousand per annum and you do not pay tax on withdrawal or earning.
Finally, you should consider financial advice. Wealthy people do not try to be in charge of everything. They rely on expert advice. Financial planning, taxes, investments, contracts, and savings programs, among others, are quite complex. You should also consider different types of insurance to protect yourself, your dear ones, and your nest egg.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--COVID-19 Just Foisted this New Threat On Social Security Benefits

Thanks to the pandemic , Americans on the verge of retiring could be forced to deal with some adverse effects .
NBC Connecticut provided some insight on the developing situation : According to Larsen : “ What it could mean is a person born in 1960 would lose $ 2,000 a year for the rest of their lives.
” Of course , being a politician , the only remedy available to Larsen is to propose new legislation on top of the legislation that already exists .
In this case , Larson ’ s proposal comes in the form of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Social Security payment formula so workers don ’ t get impacted by what everyone hopes is a one-year temporary dip in wages.
” Notice the word “ hopes ” in the previous quote .
That should raise questions if this proposal is to be taken seriously .
What if the “ dip in wages ” lasts longer than one year ?
Aside from the obvious questions , the Social Security Administration itself seems to question the potential effectiveness of the proposed legislation : Given the unprecedented level of uncertainty for the future course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on our society , economy , and individual and governmental responses , we must understand that the actual experience for the balance of this year and beyond is very likely to differ substantially from the path illustrated in this scenario .
If the proposed legislation doesn ’ t address the situation at hand , or can ’ t , then it seems like it could do more harm than good .
Of course , that shouldn ’ t surprise anyone .
And this isn ’ t the only way COVID-19 could potentially impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The main way Social Security is funded is through collection of payroll taxes on earned income .
Right now , 12.4 % of income ends up in the government ’ s coffers .
An article on Kenosha News points to the possibility that slowing wage growth may hinder future revenue collection for the SSA : The Cost of Living Adjustment ( COLA ) may also be impacted , depending on how inflation rises or falls for the remainder of 2020 .
According to the Motley Fool , “ it ’ s time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thanks to a dip in inflation for May .
But of course , how that scenario turns out remains to be seen .
Finally , in order for Social Security to thrive in the coming years , the workforce must remain stable .
Thanks to record unemployment and other economic impacts , the birth rate may stay low during the pandemic .
According to the same Kenosha News article : Overall , things don ’ t look good for Social Security over the next couple of decades .
Hopefully that changes , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prepare for the worst .
Any meaningful proposal from Congress to help with Social Security seems doomed from the start .
It looks like more “ passing the buck ” instead of actually solving the underlying problem .
Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and government shutdowns , that could get a lot worse .
Granted , a collapse of Social Security won ’ t happen overnight , but it sure looks like that ’ s where it ’ s headed .
A good idea to consider is not relying solely on Social Security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your retirement savings , including the possibility of diversifying with precious metals like gold and silver .
You may not be able to rely on the government when you retire , but at least you ’ ll have a plan that can help you feel more secure .

From Birch Gold Group
Thanks to the pandemic, Americans on the verge of retiring could be forced to deal with some adverse effects.
NBC Connecticut provided some insight on the developing situation:
Your Social Security payments have been determined in part by a formula that includes your earnings at age 60, two years before you’re eligible. Connecticut Congressman John Larson said for people turning 60 this year, when many workers’ wages are down, that could be catastrophic.
According to Larsen: “What it could mean is a person born in 1960 would lose $2,000 a year for the rest of their lives.”
Of course, being a politician, the only remedy available to Larsen is to propose new legislation on top of the legislation that already exists.
In this case, Larson’s proposal comes in the form of a “bill that proposes to change the Social Security payment formula so workers don’t get impacted by what everyone hopes is a one-year temporary dip in wages.”
Notice the word “hopes” in the previous quote. That should raise questions if this proposal is to be taken seriously.
What if the “dip in wages” lasts longer than one year?
Aside from the obvious questions, the Social Security Administration itself seems to question the potential effectiveness of the proposed legislation:
Given the unprecedented level of uncertainty for the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on our society, economy, and individual and governmental responses, we must understand that the actual experience for the balance of this year and beyond is very likely to differ substantially from the path illustrated in this scenario.
If the proposed legislation doesn’t address the situation at hand, or can’t, then it seems like it could do more harm than good. Of course, that shouldn’t surprise anyone.
And this isn’t the only way COVID-19 could potentially impact Social Security benefits in the longer term.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
3 More Potential Coronavirus Impacts on Social Security
The main way Social Security is funded is through collection of payroll taxes on earned income. Right now, 12.4% of income ends up in the government’s coffers.
An article on Kenosha News points to the possibility that slowing wage growth may hinder future revenue collection for the SSA:
If wage growth slows, so will the ability of Social Security to collect additional payroll tax revenue in subsequent years.
The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) may also be impacted, depending on how inflation rises or falls for the remainder of 2020. According to the Motley Fool, “it’s time to kiss your COLA goodbye,” thanks to a dip in inflation for May.
But of course, how that scenario turns out remains to be seen.
Finally, in order for Social Security to thrive in the coming years, the workforce must remain stable. Thanks to record unemployment and other economic impacts, the birth rate may stay low during the pandemic. According to the same Kenosha News article:
The issue for Social Security is that a certain birth rate level is needed to ensure that the stability of the worker-to-beneficiary ratio. If birth rates remain persistently low, there won’t be enough new workers to replace retirees in, say, 20 years.
Overall, things don’t look good for Social Security over the next couple of decades. Hopefully that changes, but it’s a good idea to prepare for the worst.
Don’t Rely Solely on Social Security
Any meaningful proposal from Congress to help with Social Security seems doomed from the start. It looks like more “passing the buck” instead of actually solving the underlying problem. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and government shutdowns, that could get a lot worse.
Granted, a collapse of Social Security won’t happen overnight, but it sure looks like that’s where it’s headed.
A good idea to consider is not relying solely on Social Security benefit payments. Consider taking control of your retirement savings, including the possibility of diversifying with precious metals like gold and silver.
You may not be able to rely on the government when you retire, but at least you’ll have a plan that can help you feel more secure.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--One step closer to war with the China. “The CCP is Crushing the World’s Freedoms” Pompeo

“ Secretary Pompeo : We don ’ t stay still while Communist China tries to crush the world ’ s @ @ @ @ @ to the world and allowed the spread of COVID-19 , which is nothing less than @ @ @ @ @ rest of the world .
China has land disputes with 21 countries , some of @ @ @ @ @ them .
They are threatening to seize Taiwan .
They already seized Tibet .
They @ @ @ @ @ are claiming ownership over a large international body of water that is shared by several @ @ @ @ @ even expanding their claims over Mt .
Everest !
China is a hyper-aggressive dystopian power @ @ @ @ @ They are waging war on the rest of the world as they please .
They @ @ @ @ @ never allowed to rise again , no matter the cost .
The future can not @ @ @ @ @ Fire the nukes and salt the Earth .

“Secretary Pompeo: We don’t stay still while Communist China tries to crush the world’s freedoms.”
The CCP lied to the world and allowed the spread of COVID-19, which is nothing less than a biological attack on the rest of the world.
China has land disputes with 21 countries, some of which do not even border them. They are threatening to seize Taiwan. They already seized Tibet. They are colonizing Africa. They are claiming ownership over a large international body of water that is shared by several other nations. They are even expanding their claims over Mt. Everest!
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China is a hyper-aggressive dystopian power with ambitions of expansion. They are waging war on the rest of the world as they please. They need to be crushed and never allowed to rise again, no matter the cost.
The future cannot be entrusted to them. Fire the nukes and salt the Earth.
Joe


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--A year ago Tesla was trading at less than 2x sales.  Today: 12x. US Investment Grade Corporate bond

A year ago Tesla was trading at less than 2x sales.  Today: 12x. US Investment Grade Corporate bond yields move below 2% for the first time. The Fed remains a buyer at any price/yield.

A year ago Tesla was trading at less than 2x sales .
US Investment Grade Corporate bond yields move below @ @ @ @ @ time .
The Fed remains a buyer at any price/yield .
Further , $ TSLA @ @ @ @ @ QTRLY profit , but excluding the ZEV credit income… Tesla is not profitable .
Why @ @ @ @ @ allowed into the $ SPY ?
Do bulls think the committee who decides won ’ @ @ @ @

A year ago Tesla was trading at less than 2x sales.
US Investment Grade Corporate bond yields move below 2% for the first time. The Fed remains a buyer at any price/yield.
Further, $TSLA is up on achieveing 4th QTRLY profit, but excluding the ZEV credit income… Tesla is not profitable.
Why would an unprofitable company be allowed into the $SPY? Do bulls think the committee who decides won’t notice? t.co/58tojYolGA
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) July 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--The Monster Created By Fed Will Eat The Fed Alive, The Repeat Of 1987 Crash Is Possible.

I think Fed is screwed .
The market keep pricing in unrealistic inflation like stocks never go down .
Look at USD , it keep crashing .
It will eventually force Fed to take a dramatic turn on easing .
The market is pricing in negative rate , yield control , major policy shift in fed ( this one seems confirmed by bloomberg , but fed hasn ’ t confirm it ) … .
The world is panicking fleeing from dollar .
it explains why silvers went up like crazy .
If this continue a couple of wks , u @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will go up , fed will forced to punish the market or it will cause a fake inflation in a already deflationary economy .
so its stagflation which will make this recession even worse .
Look at USD , and 10yr , and gold/silver .
USD crash = equity goes up in similar pace , but it didn ’ t .
USD never crash this fast .
10yr yield plummet like shit , money going into 10yr means ppl expecting fed will implement yield control and negative rate ( even the fed denied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ running the fed .
the market is front running the fed into a corner .
they don ’ t think the fed can let the rate raise again consider the current deficit and debt load of country and corporations .
market won ’ t listen even the fed denied those inflation policy .
( e , g market keep pricing in negative rate when fed officially denied ) .
Fed will force to stop easing when everyone jack up their price in a deflationary economy .
its understandable for market to place in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buying bonds for govt and public companies .
Keep ur eyes on USD , if it keep plummeting in the same pace for a few more days or to 2wks , a sell off will happen .
fed will forced to do something to the market .
My reasoning is actually based on today ’ s insanity of the market .
the monster created by fed will eat the fed alive .
The only way to stop the market is to crash the market by destroy their fantasy of a fake inflation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will reverse easing at a very quick manner to give a market the msg in next few wks .
which is exactly what happened in 1987. yes , 1987 market crash is very real .
the only difference is this time , fed is tightening to fight a fake inflation which is already spiraling out of control .
Tech will crash if Fed is forced to curl inflation .
Hot money will rotate out from techs .
Techs raise both bad and good news because the inflation prediction .
bad news , fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into techs so is pandemic , good news , inflation will run hotter .
Only when fed forced their hands to fight inflation , tech will go burst .
Mnuchin says reserve-currency status of U.S. dollar will be protected Mnuchin aware of USD issue and market is anticipation about inflation .
however USD continue to drop .
The fed will have to step in eventually .
1987 crash could repeat .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by Alex Mark
I think Fed is screwed. The market keep pricing in unrealistic inflation like stocks never go down. Look at USD, it keep crashing. It will eventually force Fed to take a dramatic turn on easing. The market is pricing in negative rate, yield control, major policy shift in fed(this one seems confirmed by bloomberg, but fed hasn’t confirm it)…. The world is panicking fleeing from dollar. it explains why silvers went up like crazy. If this continue a couple of wks, u will see price stuff in dollar term will go up, fed will forced to punish the market or it will cause a fake inflation in a already deflationary economy. so its stagflation which will make this recession even worse. Look at USD, and 10yr, and gold/silver. USD crash = equity goes up in similar pace, but it didn’t. USD never crash this fast. 10yr yield plummet like shit, money going into 10yr means ppl expecting fed will implement yield control and negative rate(even the fed denied this one), they are front running the fed. the market is front running the fed into a corner. they don’t think the fed can let the rate raise again consider the current deficit and debt load of country and corporations. market won’t listen even the fed denied those inflation policy. (e,g market keep pricing in negative rate when fed officially denied). Fed will force to stop easing when everyone jack up their price in a deflationary economy. its understandable for market to place in such crazy inflation bets considering fed already buying bonds for govt and public companies. Keep ur eyes on USD, if it keep plummeting in the same pace for a few more days or to 2wks, a sell off will happen. fed will forced to do something to the market.
My reasoning is actually based on today’s insanity of the market. the monster created by fed will eat the fed alive. The only way to stop the market is to crash the market by destroy their fantasy of a fake inflation. if my theory is right, fed will reverse easing at a very quick manner to give a market the msg in next few wks. which is exactly what happened in 1987. yes, 1987 market crash is very real. the only difference is this time, fed is tightening to fight a fake inflation which is already spiraling out of control. Tech will crash if Fed is forced to curl inflation. Hot money will rotate out from techs. Techs raise both bad and good news because the inflation prediction. bad news, fed will keep brrrr, inflation drive investors into techs so is pandemic, good news, inflation will run hotter. Only when fed forced their hands to fight inflation, tech will go burst.
Just breaking from marketwatch:
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Mnuchin says reserve-currency status of U.S. dollar will be protected
Mnuchin aware of USD issue and market is anticipation about inflation. however USD continue to drop. The fed will have to step in eventually. 1987 crash could repeat.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The “Black Monday” stock market crash of October 19, 1987, saw U.S. markets fall more than 20% in a single day.
It is thought that the cause of the crash was precipitated by computer program-driven trading models that followed a portfolio insurance strategy as well as investor panic.
Precursors of the crash also lay in a series of monetary and foreign trade agreements that depreciated the U.S. dollar in order to adjust trade deficits and then attempted to stabilize the dollar at its new lower value.
www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-black-monday-stock-market-crash-1987.asp
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--Keep Voting Democrat, You’ll Keep Getting What You’re Getting.

JOHN KASS : Something Grows in the Big Cities Run by Democrats : An Overwhelming Sense of Lawlessness .
Democratic @ @ @ @ @ , are on the defensive , upset that the president might win political advantage , @ @ @ @ @ with their own police departments , as the violence rises in their towns , as @ @ @ @ @ But these Democratic cities are also where left-wing billionaire George Soros has spent millions of @ @ @ @ @ social justice warriors as prosecutors .
He remakes the justice system in urban America , @ @ @ @ @ The Soros-funded prosecutors , not the mayors , are the ones who help release the @ @ @ @ @ bond .
In Chicago , Philadelphia , San Francisco , St. Louis and elsewhere , @ @ @ @ @ are the faces of their cities , not the prosecutors .
And the mayors properly @ @ @ @ @ violence spikes .

JOHN KASS: Something Grows in the Big Cities Run by Democrats: An Overwhelming Sense of Lawlessness.
Democratic mayors, backing Joe Biden, are on the defensive, upset that the president might win political advantage, even as the mayors feud with their own police departments, as the violence rises in their towns, as children are gunned down.
But these Democratic cities are also where left-wing billionaire George Soros has spent millions of dollars to help elect liberal social justice warriors as prosecutors. He remakes the justice system in urban America, flying under the radar.
The Soros-funded prosecutors, not the mayors, are the ones who help release the violent on little or no bond.
In Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, St. Louis and elsewhere, it is the mayors who are the faces of their cities, not the prosecutors.
And the mayors properly take the heat as the violence spikes.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-23--BIDEN: Holds Live Stream And Gets A Whopping 19 Viewers

I would also make this face if only 19 people were watching my livestream 26 minutes into the event… pic.twitter.com/Y357EnCFlg — Abigail Marone (@abigailmarone) July 22, 2020
I would also make this face if only 19 people were watching my livestream 26 minutes into the event… pic.twitter.com/Y357EnCFlg — Abigail Marone (@abigailmarone) July 22, 2020
I would also make this face if only 19 people were watching my livestream 26 minutes into the event… pic.twitter.com/Y357EnCFlg — Abigail Marone (@abigailmarone) July 22, 2020
h/t CrsCrpr
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