investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--COVID19/CRASH2: the bare-faced scam that insists a virus is running the World

Why the 3 % rejoice in the existence of Coronavirus There is a need at this point in the erosion of liberal democracy to try and point out the serious danger the average Western citizen faces .
For the foreseeable future , I ’ ll continue to be a French resident , and so will use the data pertaining to this country .
I hope people will find my analyses useful , and – wherever they live in Europe or elsewhere – compare them with their own experiences .
My hope is that this will give more and more Europeans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heading .
I was very outspoken yesterday about the ludicrously draconian Elysée Presidential response to this largely manufactured crisis , and I suspect some people think this to have been melodrama for effect .
Let me try and quickly dispel that assumption .
France has a population of almost exactly 70 million .
There are now thought to be around 8,000 confirmed C19 cases here , with 180 fatalities .
This means that currently , one person in 7,000 is infected , and 2 people in 100,000 have died .
The average flu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France has been 2.9 per 100,000 .
19.3 % of the older population demographic ( based on the best data series we have ) face a potential fatality rate of 3.8 % .
So there could be roughly 500,000 deaths .
The rest of the population models out at a death rate of 0.4 % , producing another 200,000 corpses .
The total comes to 700,000 funerals .
Which – to be fair to the French authorities – is not that far from the 750,000 number they headlined the day before Macron ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this is where we need to get real about death from all causes in France among wrinklies – by far the biggest reason being low immunity to infection .
These add up to 270,000 per annum .
Now of course , de-duping deaths in the 70+ demographic that happen anyway can ’ t be attempted going forward with any real degree of accuracy .
But as the WHO stats suggest a very high Covid19 risk for that group , it seems reasonable to assume ( given the rates involved ) at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gives us a net-net life risk of 550,000 French residents .
So , on the basis of a threat to 0.8 % of the gallic population , on Monday night the President of France declared the closure of all non-food , non-news and non-pharmaceutical retail outlets , his Prime Minister having 48 hours earlier closed all bars and restaurants .
I don ’ t want 550,000 deaths any more than you do : but COVID19 is what it is .
Does anyone seriously believe that an additional risk to eight out of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the civil rights of nine hundred and ninety-two out of a thousand people ?
Given I say this as somebody slap-bang in the middle of the vulnerable target hosts for C19 , I humbly submit that you should give me the benefit of the doubt when I say , “ This reaction is out of all proportion to the risk ” .
It doesn ’ t end there .
There is the question of widespread immunity that ought to be at the core of all sane approaches to dealing with this virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two approaches in play : denialist containment , and protection of the vulnerable alongside the desire to minimise the effect of future outbreaks .
The UK began by adopting the latter approach…..with which , by the way , I agree .
But then other counsel changed BoJo ’ s mind : he is now on the same insane course of impossible containment as that pertaining here in France .
Mark Rutte in Holland , meanwhile , continues to take what I see as the responsible communitarian response : if you will , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What I find both fascinating and disturbing is the continuing social media trollism of people uttering gibberish such as , “ it has mutated twice already ” , “ we do not know if immunity is possible ” and “ reinfection is a real threat ” .
COVID19 is a mutation of a virus that first appeared 60 years ago , and then 25 years ago .
Such things do not mutate within weeks .
As to immunity , the Chinese experience tells us that infection plus recovery is normal….and reinfection is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how C19 operates .
The best defence against any virus is either ( a ) the Pasteur principle of immunisation or ( b ) individual exposure followed by recovery .
Meanwhile – on the same planet – the utter collapse of Bourse-fuelled globalism continues .
At 4.00pm New York time , the Dow had lost another 9 % in value , the FTSE lost 4.5 % , the DAX 5.6 % , while Brent crude futures collapsed 11 % to their lowest level since September , 2003 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since March , 2002 .
COVID19 remains the default excuse for this meltdown : but the 205,000 worldwide recorded cases ( not deaths ) from the virus represent 1 in 33,000 Earthlings so far .
Yet on that basis , San Francisco is in lockdown , Germany has similarly shut down malls , bars and sports venues , the UK today closed all schools , and for 15 days starting at noon on March 17 , French residents have only been allowed to leave the place they live for necessary activities – as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and forcibly confined to their homes after 6pm .
Now I ask you please to consider this : are these measures in any way proportionate to the threat ?
And do they add up to an explanation of the debt/credit crunch/selling mania that now grips the stock markets of the world ?
Perhaps I should explain what crap this kind of corporacratic clampdown entails .
As of yesterday , I now need to carry with me at all times when I ’ m not in my home an ‘ attestation ’ ( to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tom , Dick and Henri who stops me and asks me whatTF I ’ m doing going about my business ) why I ’ m doing such things .
So far , I ’ m bound to say I have been depressed and disappointed by the willingness of French friends to simply acquiesce in this bollocks and – worse still – lecture me about how this is all for the common good .
There ’ s not much more I can say really , beyond expressing my contempt for a French President and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationwide television to proclaim the ridiculous idea that , “ Nous sommes en guerre ” – we are at war .
Like so many other media utterances these days , it simply doesn ’ t bear examination .
Macron lied to the French People when he said La France en Marche !
was a crowd-funded phenomenon : as Le Monde quickly established , he was almost entirely financed by his former employers .
He called himself a “ Centrist ” , but has been a neoliberal in domestic policy and a neocon Syria-bomber @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by nature , an opportunist .
Whether he gratefully latched onto COVID19 or had advance notice of the caper , I couldn ’ t say : all I know is , he is using it cynically to rule by decree .
Do we see Macron in any way promising to reform capitalism , or trying to rebalance the relatonship between labour and capital ?
We do not .
The bloke is a fraud….on the same wavelength as Venizelos in Greece , Rajoy in Spain , and – very probably – Boris Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : but where is the Resistance that will deny them such chances as they have ?

by John Ward
Why the 3% rejoice in the existence of Coronavirus
There is a need at this point in the erosion of liberal democracy to try and point out the serious danger the average Western citizen faces. For the foreseeable future, I’ll continue to be a French resident, and so will use the data pertaining to this country. I hope people will find my analyses useful, and – wherever they live in Europe or elsewhere – compare them with their own experiences. My hope is that this will give more and more Europeans a real perspective about where things are heading.
I was very outspoken yesterday about the ludicrously draconian Elysée Presidential response to this largely manufactured crisis, and I suspect some people think this to have been melodrama for effect. Let me try and quickly dispel that assumption.
France has a population of almost exactly 70 million. There are now thought to be around 8,000 confirmed C19 cases here, with 180 fatalities.
This means that currently, one person in 7,000 is infected, and 2 people in 100,000 have died. The average flu per annum death rate since 2012 in France has been 2.9 per 100,000.
19.3% of the older population demographic (based on the best data series we have) face a potential fatality rate of 3.8%. So there could be roughly 500,000 deaths. The rest of the population models out at a death rate of 0.4%, producing another 200,000 corpses.
The total comes to 700,000 funerals. Which – to be fair to the French authorities – is not that far from the 750,000 number they headlined the day before Macron’s address to the nation.
However, this is where we need to get real about death from all causes in France among wrinklies – by far the biggest reason being low immunity to infection.
These add up to 270,000 per annum. Now of course, de-duping deaths in the 70+ demographic that happen anyway can’t be attempted going forward with any real degree of accuracy. But as the WHO stats suggest a very high Covid19 risk for that group, it seems reasonable to assume (given the rates involved) at least 150,000 people dying from it.
This gives us a net-net life risk of 550,000 French residents.
So, on the basis of a threat to 0.8% of the gallic population, on Monday night the President of France declared the closure of all non-food, non-news and non-pharmaceutical retail outlets, his Prime Minister having 48 hours earlier closed all bars and restaurants.
I don’t want 550,000 deaths any more than you do: but COVID19 is what it is. Does anyone seriously believe that an additional risk to eight out of a thousand people is worth such an invasion of the civil rights of nine hundred and ninety-two out of a thousand people?
Given I say this as somebody slap-bang in the middle of the vulnerable target hosts for C19, I humbly submit that you should give me the benefit of the doubt when I say, “This reaction is out of all proportion to the risk”.
It doesn’t end there. There is the question of widespread immunity that ought to be at the core of all sane approaches to dealing with this virus.
Currently in Europe, there are two approaches in play: denialist containment, and protection of the vulnerable alongside the desire to minimise the effect of future outbreaks.
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The UK began by adopting the latter approach…..with which, by the way, I agree. But then other counsel changed BoJo’s mind: he is now on the same insane course of impossible containment as that pertaining here in France. Mark Rutte in Holland, meanwhile, continues to take what I see as the responsible communitarian response: if you will, the greatest protection of the greatest number.
What I find both fascinating and disturbing is the continuing social media trollism of people uttering gibberish such as, “it has mutated twice already”, “we do not know if immunity is possible” and “reinfection is a real threat”. COVID19 is a mutation of a virus that first appeared 60 years ago, and then 25 years ago. Such things do not mutate within weeks. As to immunity, the Chinese experience tells us that infection plus recovery is normal….and reinfection is a myth based on initially poor detection of how C19 operates.
The best defence against any virus is either (a) the Pasteur principle of immunisation or (b) individual exposure followed by recovery.
Meanwhile – on the same planet – the utter collapse of Bourse-fuelled globalism continues. At 4.00pm New York time, the Dow had lost another 9% in value, the FTSE lost 4.5%, the DAX 5.6%, while Brent crude futures collapsed 11% to their lowest level since September, 2003 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil tumbled 18% to lows not seen since March, 2002.
COVID19 remains the default excuse for this meltdown: but the 205,000 worldwide recorded cases (not deaths) from the virus represent 1 in 33,000 Earthlings so far.
Yet on that basis, San Francisco is in lockdown, Germany has similarly shut down malls, bars and sports venues, the UK today closed all schools, and for 15 days starting at noon on March 17, French residents have only been allowed to leave the place they live for necessary activities – as in, 1 shop per day – and forcibly confined to their homes after 6pm.
Now I ask you please to consider this: are these measures in any way proportionate to the threat? And do they add up to an explanation of the debt/credit crunch/selling mania that now grips the stock markets of the world?
Perhaps I should explain what crap this kind of corporacratic clampdown entails. As of yesterday, I now need to carry with me at all times when I’m not in my home an ‘attestation’ (to show to every squaddie, flic, Tom, Dick and Henri who stops me and asks me whatTF I’m doing going about my business) why I’m doing such things.
So far, I’m bound to say I have been depressed and disappointed by the willingness of French friends to simply acquiesce in this bollocks and – worse still – lecture me about how this is all for the common good.
There’s not much more I can say really, beyond expressing my contempt for a French President and child of Rothschild bankrolling who goes on nationwide television to proclaim the ridiculous idea that, “Nous sommes en guerre” – we are at war. Like so many other media utterances these days, it simply doesn’t bear examination.
Macron lied to the French People when he said La France en Marche! was a crowd-funded phenomenon: as Le Monde quickly established, he was almost entirely financed by his former employers. He called himself a “Centrist”, but has been a neoliberal in domestic policy and a neocon Syria-bomber in foreign affairs.
He is also, by nature, an opportunist. Whether he gratefully latched onto COVID19 or had advance notice of the caper, I couldn’t say: all I know is, he is using it cynically to rule by decree.
Do we see Macron in any way promising to reform capitalism, or trying to rebalance the relatonship between labour and capital? We do not.
The bloke is a fraud….on the same wavelength as Venizelos in Greece, Rajoy in Spain, and – very probably – Boris Johnson in Britain.
They are all chancers: but where is the Resistance that will deny them such chances as they have?


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--I’m Betting on America. Are You?

I’m Betting on America. Are You?

I ’ m the ultimate positive thinker .
I ’ m also very cynical .
You can be both .
My favorite saying is , “ Expect the best , prepare for the worst.
” So , I ’ m going to give you both sides of the Coronavirus story .
Let ’ s start with the bad .
This is the worst mess of our lifetimes .
The economy is hanging by a thread .
Stocks are savaged .
Small business is wrecked .
Millions of Americans are about to lose their jobs .
My beloved Vegas is ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count .
And I haven ’ t even gotten to the health crisis yet .
All of this happened because of a virus that has barely even arrived .
Here ’ s the problem .
I have many great friends and guests on my national TV and radio shows who are medical experts .
Half believe this is the “ pandemic to end all pandemics.
” They quote CDC models that report as many as 1.7 million Americans could die .
So , people are rightfully scared out of their minds .
American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other half of my medical friends and expert guests say this is a great exaggeration and overreaction .
They predict less Americans will die than the flu season of 2017-2018 that killed about 80,000 .
They don ’ t believe we needed to close down American business and lock ourselves in our homes .
The problem is we won ’ t know who ’ s right until it ’ s over .
So , I have preached on my TV and radio shows for President Trump to attack this with everything he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthcare crisis .
But also , the financial crisis .
When all is said and done , we will need a 21stcentury version of “ The Marshall Plan ” to save America ’ s economy .
We ’ ll need to rescue small business , their employees , those sick with Coronavirus , tourism , airlines , Vegas and all the rest , with a trillion-dollar rescue plan .
No choice .
Now I want to brighten your day just a bit .
Because I believe you ’ re hearing only worst-case scenarios @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Trump supporter , the left thinks Trump is finished .
Not so fast .
The latest Rasmussen poll has him at 49 % .
That ’ s up several points , smack dab in the middle of the stock crash and Coronovirus crisis .
And in Iowa , Trump is beating both Biden and Sanders by double digits .
So , I ’ m betting Trump will be just fine .
Now to Coronavirus .
First , the CDC reports that this virus could kill up to 1.7 million Americans .
Are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ebola could infect over 1 million in Africa ?
It wound up affecting under 30,000 .
Why are we letting government bureaucrats scare us to death ?
Could they be badly wrong ?
Second , no one seems able to explain something to me .
Italy is a country of 60 million with a terrible 3rdworld healthcare system .
They have 1,000 dead .
The pandemic is raging .
Let ’ s say in the end 3,000 die .
Now it hits America , a country of 330 million with the finest healthcare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finest doctors .
Why would America ’ s results be worse than Italy ?
And even if the results are similar , multiply 3,000 dead by five ( because our population is five times bigger ) .
That ’ s 15,000 dead in the USA from Coronavirus .
That ’ s far lower than the 80,000 Americans who just died from the flu a year ago .
Why is America going to have 1.7 million dead ?
Can anyone explain that projection to me ?
So far , no one can .
Lastly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher than the flu .
Is it possible millions already have Coronavirus , but it ’ s mild and they ‘ ve chosen not to tell anyone they have it ?
So , the death rate only applies to those so deathly ill they went to the hospital ?
Perhaps the death rate is vastly overcounted .
I ’ m betting on America .
I ’ m hoping for the best and prepared for the worst .
You should be too .

by Wayne Allyn Root
I’m the ultimate positive thinker. I’m also very cynical. You can be both. My favorite saying is, “Expect the best, prepare for the worst.”
So, I’m going to give you both sides of the Coronavirus story.
Let’s start with the bad. This is the worst mess of our lifetimes. The economy is hanging by a thread. Stocks are savaged. Small business is wrecked. Millions of Americans are about to lose their jobs. My beloved Vegas is (for the moment) down for the count. And I haven’t even gotten to the health crisis yet.
All of this happened because of a virus that has barely even arrived. Here’s the problem. I have many great friends and guests on my national TV and radio shows who are medical experts. Half believe this is the “pandemic to end all pandemics.” They quote CDC models that report as many as 1.7 million Americans could die. So, people are rightfully scared out of their minds. American business is shutting down.
But the other half of my medical friends and expert guests say this is a great exaggeration and overreaction. They predict less Americans will die than the flu season of 2017-2018 that killed about 80,000. They don’t believe we needed to close down American business and lock ourselves in our homes.
The problem is we won’t know who’s right until it’s over.
So, I have preached on my TV and radio shows for President Trump to attack this with everything he’s got. Not just the looming healthcare crisis. But also, the financial crisis. When all is said and done, we will need a 21stcentury version of “The Marshall Plan” to save America’s economy. We’ll need to rescue small business, their employees, those sick with Coronavirus, tourism, airlines, Vegas and all the rest, with a trillion-dollar rescue plan. No choice.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now I want to brighten your day just a bit. Because I believe you’re hearing only worst-case scenarios.
First, if you’re a Trump supporter, the left thinks Trump is finished. Not so fast. The latest Rasmussen poll has him at 49%. That’s up several points, smack dab in the middle of the stock crash and Coronovirus crisis. And in Iowa, Trump is beating both Biden and Sanders by double digits. So, I’m betting Trump will be just fine.
Now to Coronavirus. First, the CDC reports that this virus could kill up to 1.7 million Americans. Are you aware this same government agency projected Ebola could infect over 1 million in Africa? It wound up affecting under 30,000. Why are we letting government bureaucrats scare us to death? Could they be badly wrong?
Second, no one seems able to explain something to me. Italy is a country of 60 million with a terrible 3rdworld healthcare system. They have 1,000 dead. The pandemic is raging. Let’s say in the end 3,000 die. Now it hits America, a country of 330 million with the finest healthcare system in the world, and the finest doctors. Why would America’s results be worse than Italy?
And even if the results are similar, multiply 3,000 dead by five (because our population is five times bigger). That’s 15,000 dead in the USA from Coronavirus. That’s far lower than the 80,000 Americans who just died from the flu a year ago. Why is America going to have 1.7 million dead? Can anyone explain that projection to me? So far, no one can.
Lastly, some are reporting death rates much higher than the flu. Is it possible millions already have Coronavirus, but it’s mild and they‘ve chosen not to tell anyone they have it? So, the death rate only applies to those so deathly ill they went to the hospital? Perhaps the death rate is vastly overcounted.
I’m betting on America. I’m hoping for the best and prepared for the worst. You should be too.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Will This Be “Just A Recession” Or Will It Be “The Next Great Depression”?

As America slowly but surely shuts down from coast to coast , everyone is acknowledging the fact that we are heading into a very serious economic downturn .
Originally , many experts were warning that this coronavirus pandemic could spark a recession , but now some are actually starting to use the “ d ” word .
Yesterday , I wrote about the government planning document that envisions an 18 month pandemic , multiple “ waves ” of infections , and “ critical shortages ” of important supplies .
If that scenario actually plays out , what we will experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the “ Great Recession ” of 2008 and 2009 .
So let us hope that a way can be found to slow down the spread of this virus .
At this point , many of our top minds are fearing the worst .
On Thursday , former White House economist Kevin Hassett warned CNN that we could actually see a repeat of the Great Depression… The widespread shutdown of the American economy because of the coronavirus could spark a repeat of the Great Depression , former Trump economist Kevin Hassett told CNN on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former White House adviser comes as Wall Street banks say the United States faces an historic collapse in GDP and mounting job losses .
Just a few weeks ago , the mainstream media was full of talk about how bright the future looked for the U.S. economy .
But now Hassett is telling us that we could be about to witness the “ worst jobs number you ever saw ” … Could you imagine the panic that would cause on Wall Street if we actually do see a job loss of that magnitude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only one using such strong language .
A former economic adviser to Barack Obama says that this pandemic “ could do more damage to the economy than the financial crisis did ” … Jason Furman was a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama , serving as deputy director of the National Economics Council from 2009 to 2013 , and as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017 .
He played a key role in designing the administration ’ s response to the financial crisis and Great Recession .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harvard ’ s Kennedy School of Government .
I ’ ve spoken with Furman often over the years , and to put it bluntly , I ’ ve never heard him as alarmed as on Thursday .
He believes the coronavirus could do more damage to the economy than the financial crisis did , and that policymakers aren ’ t even close to designing a large enough response .
Sadly , he is likely to be entirely correct .
In fact , if this pandemic stretches on for many more months it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Sunday picnic .
For a long time I have been warning that a recession is coming , but I don ’ t have to warn about that any longer .
On Thursday , Bank of America boldly declared that the next recession is already here… If you can believe it , Bank of America is actually projecting that the U.S. economy will shrink by 12 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter , and they are warning that more than 3 million jobs will be lost during this crisis… Actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs during the course of this pandemic that should be considered to be a rip-roaring success .
Never before in U.S. history have we witnessed such a widespread economic shutdown .
On Thursday , the governor of Pennsylvania actually ordered almost every business in the entire state to close up shop… That means that almost everyone is going to be staying home and virtually all economic activity in the state is going to come to a grinding halt .
There is a good chance that this will slow down the spread of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every other state does the same thing simultaneously , people from other states are just going to keep bringing the virus back in .
In Texas , Governor Greg Abbott just instituted a whole host of restrictions , but most businesses will continue operating normally… In California , about a third of the state is currently locked down , but the COVID-19 has just continued to spread .
In fact , Governor Gavin Newsom just told the press that he expects more than 25 million people to eventually become infected in his state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases in the United States has dramatically escalated over the last 48 hours .
As long as the number of confirmed cases continues to explode , the lockdowns will persist and the restrictions on our freedoms will become more severe .
And if this pandemic does end up lasting for 18 months as the government is now projecting , it will paralyze our society to an extent that we have never seen before .
The U.S. economy has fallen off a cliff , and I have a feeling that it has a long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hits bottom .

by Michael Snyder
As America slowly but surely shuts down from coast to coast, everyone is acknowledging the fact that we are heading into a very serious economic downturn. Originally, many experts were warning that this coronavirus pandemic could spark a recession, but now some are actually starting to use the “d” word. Yesterday, I wrote about the government planning document that envisions an 18 month pandemic, multiple “waves” of infections, and “critical shortages” of important supplies. If that scenario actually plays out, what we will experience will be far, far worse than the “Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009. So let us hope that a way can be found to slow down the spread of this virus.
At this point, many of our top minds are fearing the worst. On Thursday, former White House economist Kevin Hassett warned CNN that we could actually see a repeat of the Great Depression…
The widespread shutdown of the American economy because of the coronavirus could spark a repeat of the Great Depression, former Trump economist Kevin Hassett told CNN on Thursday. The startling warning from a former White House adviser comes as Wall Street banks say the United States faces an historic collapse in GDP and mounting job losses.
Just a few weeks ago, the mainstream media was full of talk about how bright the future looked for the U.S. economy.
But now Hassett is telling us that we could be about to witness the “worst jobs number you ever saw”…
Hassett, who left the White House last year and is now a CNN commentator, predicted that when the April jobs report comes out it will be the “worst jobs number you ever saw,” with perhaps two million jobs lost. That would easily surpass the worst jobs report of the Great Recession, when payrolls plunged by 800,000 during March 2009.
Could you imagine the panic that would cause on Wall Street if we actually do see a job loss of that magnitude?
Of course Hassett is not the only one using such strong language. A former economic adviser to Barack Obama says that this pandemic “could do more damage to the economy than the financial crisis did”…
Jason Furman was a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, serving as deputy director of the National Economics Council from 2009 to 2013, and as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017. He played a key role in designing the administration’s response to the financial crisis and Great Recession. He’s now a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. I’ve spoken with Furman often over the years, and to put it bluntly, I’ve never heard him as alarmed as on Thursday. He believes the coronavirus could do more damage to the economy than the financial crisis did, and that policymakers aren’t even close to designing a large enough response.
Sadly, he is likely to be entirely correct.
In fact, if this pandemic stretches on for many more months it will make what happened in 2008 look like a Sunday picnic.
For a long time I have been warning that a recession is coming, but I don’t have to warn about that any longer. On Thursday, Bank of America boldly declared that the next recession is already here…
Bank of America warned investors on Thursday that a coronavirus-induced recession is no longer avoidable — it’s already here. “We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession … joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,” Bank of America U.S. economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. “Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed.”
If you can believe it, Bank of America is actually projecting that the U.S. economy will shrink by 12 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter, and they are warning that more than 3 million jobs will be lost during this crisis…
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Bank of America looked at the labor market as a way to understand the “magnitude of the economic shock.” The firm expects the unemployment rate to nearly double, with roughly 1 million jobs lost each month of the second quarter for a total of 3.5 million.
Actually, if we only lose 3.5 million jobs during the course of this pandemic that should be considered to be a rip-roaring success.
Never before in U.S. history have we witnessed such a widespread economic shutdown. On Thursday, the governor of Pennsylvania actually ordered almost every business in the entire state to close up shop…
Governor Tom Wolf ordered all non-life-sustaining businesses in Pennsylvania to close their physical locations by 8 p.m. Thursday in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. Enforcement actions against businesses that do not close their physical locations will begin at 12:01 a.m. Saturday, the Wolf administration said in a press release.
That means that almost everyone is going to be staying home and virtually all economic activity in the state is going to come to a grinding halt.
There is a good chance that this will slow down the spread of the virus in Pennsylvania temporarily, but unless every other state does the same thing simultaneously, people from other states are just going to keep bringing the virus back in.
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott just instituted a whole host of restrictions, but most businesses will continue operating normally…
Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order limiting public gatherings to 10 people, shutting schools, prohibiting visitors to nursing homes and retirement communities and limiting bars and restaurants to take-out through April 3 in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. He also recommended that non-essential state employees telework.
In California, about a third of the state is currently locked down, but the COVID-19 has just continued to spread.
In fact, Governor Gavin Newsom just told the press that he expects more than 25 million people to eventually become infected in his state alone…
California estimates that more than half of the state — 25.5 million people — will get the new coronavirus over the next eight weeks, according to a letter sent by Gov. Gavin Newsom to U.S. President Donald Trump. “In the last 24 hours, we had 126 new COVID-19 cases, a 21 percent increase. In some parts of our state, our case rate is doubling every four days,” Newsom wrote in a letter dated Wednesday. Newsom asked Trump to dispatch the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the Port of Los Angeles through Sept. 1 to help with the influx of expected cases.
Overall, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has dramatically escalated over the last 48 hours.
As long as the number of confirmed cases continues to explode, the lockdowns will persist and the restrictions on our freedoms will become more severe.
And if this pandemic does end up lasting for 18 months as the government is now projecting, it will paralyze our society to an extent that we have never seen before.
The U.S. economy has fallen off a cliff, and I have a feeling that it has a long, long way to go before it hits bottom.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Junk-Bond Spreads & BBB-Bond Spreads Blow Out Past Lehman-Bankruptcy Levels

Frazzled by the sudden appearance of Financial Crisis 2 , the Fed scurries in every bailout direction .
Corporate bonds have come under serious stress , starting on February 24 and building in a crescendo over the past 10 or so trading days .
During this sell-off , credit-risk concerns are suddenly shooting to the top , as bond prices are dropping , and yields are surging .
Financial stress is spreading .
This turmoil makes it more difficult and more expensive for companies to raise funds by issuing new bonds .
And yield spreads have blown out .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a corporate bond and the yield of a Treasury security of equivalent maturity .
This way , the spread measures credit-risk concerns , as Treasury securities are assumed to be nearly free of “ credit risk , ” since the Fed ’ s printing press can always print the US out of a default .
These credit-risk concerns have blown out suddenly .
The average spread of bonds rated BBB widened to 3.68 percentage points as of last night ( ICE BofA US BBB Effective Yield Index ) .
BBB is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ investment-grade ” bonds just above “ junk ” that everyone is fretting about .
And this spread of 3.68 percentage points is the magic number that the index blew through on September 15 , 2008 , the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy : Everyone is fretting about the BBB category of bonds because it ’ s so huge – it accounted for about half of all investment grade bonds – and because many of these bonds are going to be downgraded to junk during a downturn .
So here we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get new entrants from the top down .
For example , it will get Boeing .
Earlier this week , and at least a year to late , Standard & Poor ’ s downgraded Boeing – which has been in an existential crisis after it blew $ 43 billion on share buybacks – to BBB .
These BBB-rated bonds , by their sheer mass of $ 3.3 trillion are thickly populating every investment-grade bond fund .
And they have sold off sharply since February 24 .
Companies in that category find it now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new bonds to raise new money to service existing debts .
At the next step down , the lovely moniker “ junk bonds ” applies .
It covers a broad range of about $ 1.3 trillion of bonds with ratings ranging from just below “ investment grade ” to bonds that are about to default or are already in default .
This includes names such as Tesla , Netflix , Ford , many airline bonds , and toward the bottom , much of the collapsing shale oil-and-gas sector .
On Standard & Poor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ range starts with BB+ ( non-investment grade speculative ) and spans the BB and B ratings below it , CCC+ ( substantial risk ) , CCC ( extremely speculative ) , CC and C ( default imminent , little prospect for recovery ) , and finally D for default ( here is my cheat sheet for bond credit ratings ) .
In the BB category of junk bonds , the average spread widened to 6.70 percentage point as of last night , which is the spread that the index blew through on September @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Lehman bankruptcy .
During the peak euro debt crisis in October 2011 , the spread also revisited that level : What does this look like for individual bonds ?
It looks ugly .
For example , in the B category are Tesla ’ s 5.3 % 10-year notes due in August 2025 .
The issue is rated B- by S & P .
Its yield spiked from 4.0 % in February at the time of the WTF chart of the year , to 10 % today , as its price plunged 22 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 81.5 today .
That ’ s what this means for individual bonds ( yield chart via FINRA/Morningstar ) : This turmoil all around , including in the bond market , has produced large losses for the biggest asset holders .
And they squealed for the Fed to unleash the bailouts .
Then there ’ s the threat of ultra-easy credit getting a little tighter and more expensive for Corporate America , the threat of spillovers from the repricing of stocks and bonds to other markets , plus pre-existing turmoil in the repo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could pose to the banking system .
So the Fed has rolled out all kinds of bailout programs for companies , the corporate bond market , the corporate paper market , banks , money markets , the US Treasury market , the MBS market , and the like , trillions of dollars .
These programs are now bigger than what they had been during Financial Crisis 1 , and the Fed is front-loading , and what took months to roll out during Financial Crisis 1 now took only a couple of weeks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a virus hits the totally over-ripe Everything Bubble – the biggest bubble the world had ever seen , the one that the Fed had spent a decade inflating and denied ever being able to see – which had already started to come apart at the seams late last year .

Frazzled by the sudden appearance of Financial Crisis 2, the Fed scurries in every bailout direction.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET:
Corporate bonds have come under serious stress, starting on February 24 and building in a crescendo over the past 10 or so trading days. During this sell-off, credit-risk concerns are suddenly shooting to the top, as bond prices are dropping, and yields are surging. Financial stress is spreading. This turmoil makes it more difficult and more expensive for companies to raise funds by issuing new bonds.
And yield spreads have blown out. The spread is the difference between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a Treasury security of equivalent maturity. This way, the spread measures credit-risk concerns, as Treasury securities are assumed to be nearly free of “credit risk,” since the Fed’s printing press can always print the US out of a default.
These credit-risk concerns have blown out suddenly.
The average spread of bonds rated BBB widened to 3.68 percentage points as of last night (ICE BofA US BBB Effective Yield Index). BBB is the enormous and ballooning $3.3-trillion category of “investment-grade” bonds just above “junk” that everyone is fretting about. And this spread of 3.68 percentage points is the magic number that the index blew through on September 15, 2008, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy:
Everyone is fretting about the BBB category of bonds because it’s so huge – it accounted for about half of all investment grade bonds – and because many of these bonds are going to be downgraded to junk during a downturn. So here we are.
The BBB category is continuing to get new entrants from the top down. For example, it will get Boeing. Earlier this week, and at least a year to late, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Boeing – which has been in an existential crisis after it blew $43 billion on share buybacks – to BBB.
These BBB-rated bonds, by their sheer mass of $3.3 trillion are thickly populating every investment-grade bond fund. And they have sold off sharply since February 24. Companies in that category find it now difficult and much more expensive to issue new bonds to raise new money to service existing debts.
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At the next step down, the lovely moniker “junk bonds” applies. It covers a broad range of about $1.3 trillion of bonds with ratings ranging from just below “investment grade” to bonds that are about to default or are already in default. This includes names such as Tesla, Netflix, Ford, many airline bonds, and toward the bottom, much of the collapsing shale oil-and-gas sector.
On Standard & Poor’s ratings scale, the junk-bond range starts with BB+ (non-investment grade speculative) and spans the BB and B ratings below it, CCC+ (substantial risk), CCC (extremely speculative), CC and C (default imminent, little prospect for recovery), and finally D for default (here is my cheat sheet for bond credit ratings).
In the BB category of junk bonds, the average spread widened to 6.70 percentage point as of last night, which is the spread that the index blew through on September 25, 2008, ten days after the Lehman bankruptcy. During the peak euro debt crisis in October 2011, the spread also revisited that level:
What does this look like for individual bonds?
It looks ugly. For example, in the B category are Tesla’s 5.3% 10-year notes due in August 2025. The issue is rated B- by S&P. Its yield spiked from 4.0% in February at the time of the WTF chart of the year, to 10% today, as its price plunged 22% from 104 cents on the dollar to 81.5 today. That’s what this means for individual bonds (yield chart via FINRA/Morningstar):
This turmoil all around, including in the bond market, has produced large losses for the biggest asset holders. And they squealed for the Fed to unleash the bailouts. Then there’s the threat of ultra-easy credit getting a little tighter and more expensive for Corporate America, the threat of spillovers from the repricing of stocks and bonds to other markets, plus pre-existing turmoil in the repo market, and the threat all this could pose to the banking system.
So the Fed has rolled out all kinds of bailout programs for companies, the corporate bond market, the corporate paper market, banks, money markets, the US Treasury market, the MBS market, and the like, trillions of dollars.
These programs are now bigger than what they had been during Financial Crisis 1, and the Fed is front-loading, and what took months to roll out during Financial Crisis 1 now took only a couple of weeks.
That’s what you get when a virus hits the totally over-ripe Everything Bubble – the biggest bubble the world had ever seen, the one that the Fed had spent a decade inflating and denied ever being able to see – which had already started to come apart at the seams late last year.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--We’ve had a massive asset bubble that is now crashing.

Coronavirus-led global recession will be worst since World War II : Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank is the latest financial institution to forecast a global recession in 2020 , and its second-quarter projections call for the biggest economic contractions in nearly 80 years .
Plummeting first-quarter demand in China will initiate the global slowdown before a similar hit is seen in the eurozone and the US , the team of economists led by Peter Hooper wrote Wednesday .
The coronavirus has already dragged major economies close to complete halts as quarantine orders and business shutdowns block consumer spending and leave companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will see gross domestic product slump by 31.7 % in the first quarter before rocketing to 34 % in the following three-month period , the economists said .
The US economy will grow by just 0.6 % in the first quarter before slipping into a 12.9 % contraction .
The anticipated declines “ substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II , ” the bank added .
Deutsche Bank ’ s recession scenario depicts a sharp V-shaped dip in economic growth as nations quickly rebound through the second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in containing the coronavirus makes such estimates difficult , as increased contagion could yield a far longer hit to major economies , the bank said .

We've had a massive asset bubble that is now crashing. Right now, most people are shell-shocked – they’re still in the denial phase. They’re thinking “Is this really happening? We’ll go back to normal soon.”$SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/C5nih2WToa — Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) March 19, 2020
Credit has blown out (HY, IG and MUNI) to or beyond 2015 levels. If stocks do the same, the S&P will go to 1800 (eg -25% lower from here) pic.twitter.com/AB8gdeNfiQ — steph pomboy (@spomboy) March 19, 2020
Coronavirus-led global recession will be worst since World War II: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank is the latest financial institution to forecast a global recession in 2020, and its second-quarter projections call for the biggest economic contractions in nearly 80 years.
Plummeting first-quarter demand in China will initiate the global slowdown before a similar hit is seen in the eurozone and the US, the team of economists led by Peter Hooper wrote Wednesday. The coronavirus has already dragged major economies close to complete halts as quarantine orders and business shutdowns block consumer spending and leave companies rushing to shore up cash.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
China will see gross domestic product slump by 31.7% in the first quarter before rocketing to 34% in the following three-month period, the economists said. The US economy will grow by just 0.6% in the first quarter before slipping into a 12.9% contraction. The anticipated declines “substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II,” the bank added.
Deutsche Bank’s recession scenario depicts a sharp V-shaped dip in economic growth as nations quickly rebound through the second half of 2020. Yet the difficulty in containing the coronavirus makes such estimates difficult, as increased contagion could yield a far longer hit to major economies, the bank said.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--The Inevitable Outcome Of The Oil Price War

One might reasonably posit that when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ( MbS ) signalled that Saudi Arabia was once again going to produce oil to the maximum to crash oil prices in a full-scale oil price war , Russian President Vladimir Putin probably fell off the horse he was riding bare-chested somewhere in Siberia because he was laughing so much .
There is a phrase in Russian intelligence circles for clueless people that are ruthlessly used without their knowledge in covert operations , which is ‘ a useful idiot ’ , and it is hard to think of anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Russians than whoever came up with Saudi ’ s latest ‘ plan ’ .
Whichever way the oil price war pans out , Russia wins .
In purely basic oil economics terms , Russia has a budget breakeven price of US $ 40 per barrel of Brent this year : Saudi ’ s is US $ 84 .
Russia can produce over 11 million barrels per day ( mbpd ) of oil without figuratively breaking sweat ; Saudi ’ s average from 1973 to right now is just over 8 mbpd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Rosneft , has been begging President Putin to allow it to produce and sell more oil since the OPEC+ arrangement was first agreed in December 2016 ; Saudi ’ s major oil producer , Aramco , only suffers value-destruction in such a scenario .
This includes for those people who were sufficiently trusting of MbS to buy shares in Aramco ’ s recent IPO .
Russia can cope with oil prices as low as US $ 25 per barrel from a budget and foreign asset reserves perspective for up to 10 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most .
A key reason why Russia can survive for so much longer than Saudis is actually thanks to MbS himself .
Underlining this – and the fact that the Russians do have a very impish sense of humour , as they do – was that Russia ’ s Energy Minister , Alexander Novak , last week praised the co-operation of the OPEC+ grouping over the past three years , which , he added “ had earned Russia 10 trillion rubles [ US $ 140 billion ] .
” Presumably just to highlight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Finance Ministry then helpfully chipped in that the accumulated funds from the previous OPEC+ agreements will help Russia to support the ruble and will also help Russia to cope with oil prices as low as US $ 25 per barrel for up to 10 years .
The metaphorical icing on the cake , though , was Novak adding that “ we may reach new agreements [ with OPEC ] if needed ” .
In practical terms this means that if , in fact , it takes longer than originally thought by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it starts to have any negative impact on Russia , then Moscow will just click its fingers together and Riyadh will come running to sign a new OPEC+ output cap deal .
But surely , some may say , Saudi stands no chance of going bankrupt ?
In fact , as highlighted above , Saudi will absolutely go bankrupt if it continues this oil price war .
As Saudi Arabia ’ s own deputy economic minister , Mohamed Al Tuwaijri , stated unequivocally in October 2016 last time that the Saudis tried this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 2016 : “ If we [ Saudi Arabia ] don ’ t take any reform measures , and if the global economy stays the same , then we ’ re doomed to bankruptcy in three to four years.
” That is to say , that if Saudi kept overproducing to push oil prices down – just as it is doing right now , yet again – then it would be bankrupt within three to four years .
The timeframe has halved for a variety of reasons outlined in my recent piece on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has Russia to gain from Saudi going bankrupt ?
Economically , it means that Saudi will default on sovereign and corporate debt , will not be able to service its key industries , and will be unable to meet the requirements for its major oil and gas contracts .
Simply having less Saudi oil and gas competing in the same space as Russia and its allies – notably Iran and Iraq – would be benefit enough for Russia but there are even bigger added benefits too .
One of these is the destruction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. and Saudi Arabia that has endured since 1945 .
At that time , as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets , the deal that was struck between the then-U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time , Abdulaziz , onboard the U.S. Navy cruiser Quincy in the Great Bitter Lake segment of the Suez Canal was that the U.S. would receive all of the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi had oil in place , in return for which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the country and of the ruling House of Saud .
Support in the U.S. for the continuation of this relationship has already diminished markedly in the past few years .
This change in attitude began in earnest when it came to the U.S. public ’ s attention that 15 of the 19 hijackers who flew the aeroplanes involved in the ‘ 9/11 ’ terrorist atrocity on the U.S. were Saudi nationals .
The extent of the Saudi government ’ s involvement in funding such terrorism appeared front and centre following the overriding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congress of former President Barack Obama ’ s veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act .
That made it possible for families of the victims of the ‘ 9/11 ’ terrorist attack to sue the government of Saudi Arabia for damages .
Within a short space of time after this reversal , there were seven major lawsuits in federal courts alleging Saudi government support and funding for the ‘ 9/11 ’ attack , and more lawsuits are expected .
Subsequent events have not softened this negative view , with ongoing pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war in Yemen , the cosying up of Saudi to Russia in the OPEC+ grouping , and Lebanese President Michel Aoun ’ s allegation in 2017 that then-Prime Minister Saad al Hariri had been kidnapped by the Saudis and forced to resign .
Matters grew worse with the murder of dissident Saudi journalist , Jamal Khashoggi , on 2 October 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul , Turkey , which even the CIA concluded was personally ordered by MbS .
Such was the shift in sentiment away from Saudi over these years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under growing pressure to finally implement the ‘ No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act ’ ( NOPEC ) .
This bill – which can still be implemented , incidentally ( apparently something else that MbS has not taken into consideration ) – would make it illegal to artificially cap oil ( and gas ) production or to set prices , as OPEC and Saudi Arabia do .
The bill would also immediately remove the sovereign immunity that presently exists in U.S. courts for OPEC as a group and for its individual member @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open to be sued under existing U.S. anti-trust legislation with its total liability being its estimated US $ 1 trillion of investments in the U.S .
This , and all of the other aforementioned events , resulted in MbS being completely unable to find any international listing destination for the Aramco IPO .
As highlighted ahead of the IPO in previous articles published in OilPrice.com , Aramco shares are now haemorrhaging value for precisely the key reason cited : that the company would be used as an instrument of government policy – however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shareholders .
Moreover , at the weekend , Aramco posted figures showing a 21 per cent fall in 2019 ‘ due to a drop in oil prices ’ – and this is before the new price-crashing strategy was put in place by MbS !
After the ‘ strategy ’ announcement , the shares were trading at 15 per cent less than the offer price .
In addition , again making a lie of its previous statements , it emerged at the end of last week that , despite its proven ridiculous claims by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never before even vaguely attained .
Aramco rejected at least three Asian refiners ’ ( one Korean , one Taiwanese , and one Chinese ) requests for additional crude for April , on top of their long-term supply deal .
So Russia , with Saudi Arabia either in the oil price war or better still bankrupt , benefits either way .
The long-term goal of Russia is to control directly or indirectly all of the key players in the Shia crescent of power in the Middle East , including most immediately Lebanon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yemen ( via Iran ) .
All of these countries have vast oil and gas reserves and/or useful coastlines for Russian military and commercial needs ( Mediterranean access or access to the Arabian Sea ) .
To do this , Russia ’ s core foreign policy strategy is to create chaos and then project Russian solutions and therefore power into that chaos .
In this respect , again , MbS is being very ‘ useful ’ to the Russians .

By Simon Watkins
One might reasonably posit that when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) signalled that Saudi Arabia was once again going to produce oil to the maximum to crash oil prices in a full-scale oil price war, Russian President Vladimir Putin probably fell off the horse he was riding bare-chested somewhere in Siberia because he was laughing so much. There is a phrase in Russian intelligence circles for clueless people that are ruthlessly used without their knowledge in covert operations, which is ‘a useful idiot’, and it is hard to think of anyone more ‘useful’ in this context to the Russians than whoever came up with Saudi’s latest ‘plan’. Whichever way the oil price war pans out, Russia wins.
In purely basic oil economics terms, Russia has a budget breakeven price of US$40 per barrel of Brent this year: Saudi’s is US$84. Russia can produce over 11 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil without figuratively breaking sweat; Saudi’s average from 1973 to right now is just over 8 mbpd. Russia’s major oil producer, Rosneft, has been begging President Putin to allow it to produce and sell more oil since the OPEC+ arrangement was first agreed in December 2016; Saudi’s major oil producer, Aramco, only suffers value-destruction in such a scenario. This includes for those people who were sufficiently trusting of MbS to buy shares in Aramco’s recent IPO. Russia can cope with oil prices as low as US$25 per barrel from a budget and foreign asset reserves perspective for up to 10 years; Saudi can manage 2 years at most.
A key reason why Russia can survive for so much longer than Saudis is actually thanks to MbS himself. Underlining this – and the fact that the Russians do have a very impish sense of humour, as they do – was that Russia’s Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, last week praised the co-operation of the OPEC+ grouping over the past three years, which, he added “had earned Russia 10 trillion rubles [US$140 billion].” Presumably just to highlight the irony of this further, Russia’s Finance Ministry then helpfully chipped in that the accumulated funds from the previous OPEC+ agreements will help Russia to support the ruble and will also help Russia to cope with oil prices as low as US$25 per barrel for up to 10 years. The metaphorical icing on the cake, though, was Novak adding that “we may reach new agreements [with OPEC] if needed”. In practical terms this means that if, in fact, it takes longer than originally thought by Russia for Saudi to go bankrupt and it starts to have any negative impact on Russia, then Moscow will just click its fingers together and Riyadh will come running to sign a new OPEC+ output cap deal.
But surely, some may say, Saudi stands no chance of going bankrupt? In fact, as highlighted above, Saudi will absolutely go bankrupt if it continues this oil price war. As Saudi Arabia’s own deputy economic minister, Mohamed Al Tuwaijri, stated unequivocally in October 2016 last time that the Saudis tried this exact same ‘strategy’ from 2014 to 2016: “If we [Saudi Arabia] don’t take any reform measures, and if the global economy stays the same, then we’re doomed to bankruptcy in three to four years.” That is to say, that if Saudi kept overproducing to push oil prices down – just as it is doing right now, yet again – then it would be bankrupt within three to four years. The timeframe has halved for a variety of reasons outlined in my recent piece on this very subject here.
But what has Russia to gain from Saudi going bankrupt? Economically, it means that Saudi will default on sovereign and corporate debt, will not be able to service its key industries, and will be unable to meet the requirements for its major oil and gas contracts. Simply having less Saudi oil and gas competing in the same space as Russia and its allies – notably Iran and Iraq – would be benefit enough for Russia but there are even bigger added benefits too. One of these is the destruction of the already strained relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that has endured since 1945. At that time, as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, the deal that was struck between the then-U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time, Abdulaziz, onboard the U.S. Navy cruiser Quincy in the Great Bitter Lake segment of the Suez Canal was that the U.S. would receive all of the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi had oil in place, in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security both of the country and of the ruling House of Saud.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Support in the U.S. for the continuation of this relationship has already diminished markedly in the past few years. This change in attitude began in earnest when it came to the U.S. public’s attention that 15 of the 19 hijackers who flew the aeroplanes involved in the ‘9/11’ terrorist atrocity on the U.S. were Saudi nationals. The extent of the Saudi government’s involvement in funding such terrorism appeared front and centre following the overriding on 28 September 2017 by the U.S Congress of former President Barack Obama’s veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act. That made it possible for families of the victims of the ‘9/11’ terrorist attack to sue the government of Saudi Arabia for damages. Within a short space of time after this reversal, there were seven major lawsuits in federal courts alleging Saudi government support and funding for the ‘9/11’ attack, and more lawsuits are expected.
Subsequent events have not softened this negative view, with ongoing pressure from the U.S. Congress over the Saudi-led war in Yemen, the cosying up of Saudi to Russia in the OPEC+ grouping, and Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s allegation in 2017 that then-Prime Minister Saad al Hariri had been kidnapped by the Saudis and forced to resign. Matters grew worse with the murder of dissident Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, on 2 October 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, which even the CIA concluded was personally ordered by MbS. Such was the shift in sentiment away from Saudi over these years that the U.S. Presidential Administration has come under growing pressure to finally implement the ‘No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act’ (NOPEC). This bill – which can still be implemented, incidentally (apparently something else that MbS has not taken into consideration) – would make it illegal to artificially cap oil (and gas) production or to set prices, as OPEC and Saudi Arabia do.
The bill would also immediately remove the sovereign immunity that presently exists in U.S. courts for OPEC as a group and for its individual member states. This would leave Saudi Arabia open to be sued under existing U.S. anti-trust legislation with its total liability being its estimated US$1 trillion of investments in the U.S. This, and all of the other aforementioned events, resulted in MbS being completely unable to find any international listing destination for the Aramco IPO. As highlighted ahead of the IPO in previous articles published in OilPrice.com, Aramco shares are now haemorrhaging value for precisely the key reason cited: that the company would be used as an instrument of government policy – however ill-considered – regardless of the considerations of shareholders.
Moreover, at the weekend, Aramco posted figures showing a 21 per cent fall in 2019 ‘due to a drop in oil prices’ – and this is before the new price-crashing strategy was put in place by MbS! After the ‘strategy’ announcement, the shares were trading at 15 per cent less than the offer price. In addition, again making a lie of its previous statements, it emerged at the end of last week that, despite its proven ridiculous claims by the Kingdom to boost supplies to levels never before even vaguely attained. Aramco rejected at least three Asian refiners’ (one Korean, one Taiwanese, and one Chinese) requests for additional crude for April, on top of their long-term supply deal.
So Russia, with Saudi Arabia either in the oil price war or better still bankrupt, benefits either way. The long-term goal of Russia is to control directly or indirectly all of the key players in the Shia crescent of power in the Middle East, including most immediately Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen (via Iran). All of these countries have vast oil and gas reserves and/or useful coastlines for Russian military and commercial needs (Mediterranean access or access to the Arabian Sea). To do this, Russia’s core foreign policy strategy is to create chaos and then project Russian solutions and therefore power into that chaos. In this respect, again, MbS is being very ‘useful’ to the Russians.
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19

New evidence from Europe and the U.S. suggests that younger adults aren ’ t as impervious to the novel coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ as originally thought .
Up to 20 per cent of people hospitalized with coronavirus in @ @ @ @ @ adults between ages 20 to 44 , a new federal study shows .
While the @ @ @ @ @ higher in older people , the report issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control @ @ @ @ @ are making up a big portion of hospitalizations .
Nearly 9,000 Americans have tested positive @ @ @ @ @ least 149 have died

New evidence from Europe and the U.S. suggests that younger adults aren’t as impervious to the novel coronavirus that’s circulating worldwide as originally thought.
news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/yes-young-people-are-falling-seriously-ill-from-covid-19
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/yes-young-people-are-falling-seriously-ill-from-covid-19/ar-BB11q1dL?li=BBoPRmx&srcref=rss
Up to 20 per cent of people hospitalized with coronavirus in the United States are young adults between ages 20 to 44, a new federal study shows.
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While the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people, the report issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows younger people are making up a big portion of hospitalizations.
Nearly 9,000 Americans have tested positive for the virus. At least 149 have died
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Spanish coronavirus death toll jumps 30 per cent in a day

• Spanish COVID-19 death toll jumps 30 per cent in one day from 209 to 767 • Total coronavirus cases in the country today climbed by a quarter to 17,147 • Two crematoriums in Madrid started operating 24 hours a day to deal with dead • Coronavirus symptoms : what are they and should you see a doctor ?
Spain ’ s death toll from the coronavirus epidemic soared by 209 to 767 fatalities from the previous day .
The total number of coronavirus cases in the country climbed by a quarter to 17,147 today , Spain ’ s health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 13,716 cases in Spain , according to official figures .
Two crematoriums in Madrid have reported started operating 24 hours a day to deal with the surge in deaths .
According to El Mundo , both crematoriums are operating with a 48-hour delay due to the huge number of dead bodies in the Spanish capital .
Spanish authorities have also transformed a four-star Madrid hotel into a medical care facility to treat people with mild cases of coronavirus .
In a bid to ease pressure on hospitals grappling with the pandemic , regional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Spain hardest-hit by the outbreak , said today they plan to re-purpose more hotels over the coming days to treat coronavirus patients .

Spanish COVID-19 death toll jumps 30 per cent in one day from 209 to 767
Total coronavirus cases in the country today climbed by a quarter to 17,147
Two crematoriums in Madrid started operating 24 hours a day to deal with dead
Authorities also transformed a four-star Madrid hotel into a medical care facility
Spain has imposed a lockdown including ban on leaving home unnecessarily
Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
Spain’s death toll from the coronavirus epidemic soared by 209 to 767 fatalities from the previous day.
The total number of coronavirus cases in the country climbed by a quarter to 17,147 today, Spain’s health ministry said.
On Wednesday there were 13,716 cases in Spain, according to official figures.
Two crematoriums in Madrid have reported started operating 24 hours a day to deal with the surge in deaths.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
According to El Mundo, both crematoriums are operating with a 48-hour delay due to the huge number of dead bodies in the Spanish capital.
Spanish authorities have also transformed a four-star Madrid hotel into a medical care facility to treat people with mild cases of coronavirus.
In a bid to ease pressure on hospitals grappling with the pandemic, regional authorities in the capital, the area of Spain hardest-hit by the outbreak, said today they plan to re-purpose more hotels over the coming days to treat coronavirus patients.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8130415/Spanish-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-30-cent-rising-209-767-day.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Why Is No One Discussing This Data From The CDC? Extremely Suspicious and May Answer Some Important

Why Is No One Discussing This Data From The CDC? Extremely Suspicious and May Answer Some Important Questions! (Includes Sources)

Every year , there are thousands of influenza cases that are tracked by the CDC .
The two subtypes are H1N1 and H3N2 .
Nearly every year the number of cases reported for both strains tally into the thousands , if not tens of thousands for the United States alone .
So the question is , why are there an extreme unusual , near “ record low ” number of H3N2 cases being reported for this particular flu season ?
Check the data out yourself .
Go to the CDC ’ s “ fluview ” here : gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html Now use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to view all of the tracked cases for H3 .
You will find that no matter which week you view , you will see that there have been no more than 271 cases for any given week .
271 ?
!
That is remarkable , considering there are often thousands ( sometimes as high as 9 thousand ! )
cases reported in a particular week…Except for this year , where the highest cases reported totaled 271 in a particular week .
Despite this data , health officials have been warning the masses for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceptionally severe ” this season .
( see source below ) Just one article of dozens online suggesting the severity of H3 and how it is particularly deadly for the elderly : www.everydayhealth.com/cold-flu/what-you-need-know-about-2019-2020-flu-season/ Could it be possible that health officials are intentionally swapping out or ( negating ) H3 data for CV19 ?
If not , the where did H3 Flu go ?
The United States historically has thousands of cases every year .
At this point I think we may be on the precipice of blowing this very real conspiracy wide open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by AC
Every year, there are thousands of influenza cases that are tracked by the CDC. The two subtypes are H1N1 and H3N2. Nearly every year the number of cases reported for both strains tally into the thousands, if not tens of thousands for the United States alone. So the question is, why are there an extreme unusual, near “record low” number of H3N2 cases being reported for this particular flu season?
Check the data out yourself. Go to the CDC’s “fluview” here:
gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html
Now use the toggle tool on the upper left to view all of the tracked cases for H3. You will find that no matter which week you view, you will see that there have been no more than 271 cases for any given week. 271?! That is remarkable, considering there are often thousands (sometimes as high as 9 thousand!) cases reported in a particular week…Except for this year, where the highest cases reported totaled 271 in a particular week.
Despite this data, health officials have been warning the masses for months, that 2020 could be “exceptionally severe” this season. (see source below)
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Just one article of dozens online suggesting the severity of H3 and how it is particularly deadly for the elderly:
www.everydayhealth.com/cold-flu/what-you-need-know-about-2019-2020-flu-season/
Could it be possible that health officials are intentionally swapping out or (negating) H3 data for CV19? If not, the where did H3 Flu go? The United States historically has thousands of cases every year. At this point I think we may be on the precipice of blowing this very real conspiracy wide open.
Please share this information!
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Stock Market Showing Another Example of “Rogue Wave” Behavior

The term “ rogue wave ” applies to strangely massive waves which occur in the ocean .
And the same physics appears to show up in the movements of stock prices .
Oceanographers who study this phenomenon have observed that it is not just about a wave being very tall above the mean sea level .
A rogue wave does have a crest , and it also has an adjacent trough which is approximately the same depth below normal sea level that the crest is above it .
That is what makes a rogue wave so destructive to ships .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it relates to the financial markets after reading an article in National Geographic magazine about the Maxwave Project .
It included this chart , which is an actual plot of wave height measured in the ocean : The operating hypothesis behind the formation of large rogue waves in the ocean is that a rogue wave “ borrows ” energy from adjacent waves , making them smaller , but making the rogue wave bigger .
And eventually the rogue wave passes , allowing the chop to return to its normal amplitudes above and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that chart , it occurred to me that I had seen this plot before .
So using a little bit of charting magic , I created this comparison : The key point to adapting this principle to the financial markets is that the notion of “ sea level ” is different .
It does not have to be a flat price level , but rather perhaps a regression line which may be sloped upward or downward .
Such is the case in that chart of the 1929-32 rogue wave event .
And it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ waves ” before and after the big event looked a lot like the Maxwave plot .
If one prefers , one can “ flatten out ” the stock market by portraying prices as the distance from some moving average , as opposed to raw prices .
Here is an example of that technique , comparing the January 2018 “ Short VIX Crash ” to the Maxwave plot : And here is a chart of the raw DJIA values from the current episode , again compared to that Maxwave plot : If this interpretation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another example of a rogue wave in the stock market , then the conclusion is that we should see some sort of return to “ sea level ” once the bottom is in .
What price level constitutes “ sea level ” for this episode is a harder question to answer in advance .
And following that return to sea level , it is also possible that a new price trend could develop , upward or downward , which changes what the future “ sea level ” could look like .
From the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand-drawn middle line is approximately correct , then the bounce to get back to the current “ sea level ” would mean getting the DJIA back initially to around 26,000 to 27,000 , just as a return to my guess about what sea level is for this instance .
And that is just a guess .
To see how rogue waves have played out in other market scenarios , check out the prior articles cited below .

by Tom McClellan
The term “rogue wave” applies to strangely massive waves which occur in the ocean. And the same physics appears to show up in the movements of stock prices.
Oceanographers who study this phenomenon have observed that it is not just about a wave being very tall above the mean sea level. A rogue wave does have a crest, and it also has an adjacent trough which is approximately the same depth below normal sea level that the crest is above it. That is what makes a rogue wave so destructive to ships.
I first began to contemplate this topic as it relates to the financial markets after reading an article in National Geographic magazine about the Maxwave Project. It included this chart, which is an actual plot of wave height measured in the ocean:
The operating hypothesis behind the formation of large rogue waves in the ocean is that a rogue wave “borrows” energy from adjacent waves, making them smaller, but making the rogue wave bigger. And eventually the rogue wave passes, allowing the chop to return to its normal amplitudes above and below sea level.
In looking at that chart, it occurred to me that I had seen this plot before. So using a little bit of charting magic, I created this comparison:
The key point to adapting this principle to the financial markets is that the notion of “sea level” is different. It does not have to be a flat price level, but rather perhaps a regression line which may be sloped upward or downward. Such is the case in that chart of the 1929-32 rogue wave event. And it is fun that the stock market “waves” before and after the big event looked a lot like the Maxwave plot.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If one prefers, one can “flatten out” the stock market by portraying prices as the distance from some moving average, as opposed to raw prices. Here is an example of that technique, comparing the January 2018 “Short VIX Crash” to the Maxwave plot:
And here is a chart of the raw DJIA values from the current episode, again compared to that Maxwave plot:
If this interpretation is correct, that we are seeing another example of a rogue wave in the stock market, then the conclusion is that we should see some sort of return to “sea level” once the bottom is in. What price level constitutes “sea level” for this episode is a harder question to answer in advance. And following that return to sea level, it is also possible that a new price trend could develop, upward or downward, which changes what the future “sea level” could look like.
From the first chart, though, if my hand-drawn middle line is approximately correct, then the bounce to get back to the current “sea level” would mean getting the DJIA back initially to around 26,000 to 27,000, just as a return to my guess about what sea level is for this instance. And that is just a guess.
To see how rogue waves have played out in other market scenarios, check out the prior articles cited below.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Meghan McCain warns Trump could get re-elected by scapegoating China for coronavirus on “The View” “

“ The View ” co-host Meghan McCain warned President Donald Trump would be re-elected if his critics complained too loudly @ @ @ @ @ on China .
Former co-host Sara Haines , who ’ s filling in for self-quarantining @ @ @ @ @ remotely working Whoopi Goldberg agreed the president was wrong to call COVID-19 the “ China @ @ @ @ @ , people as we ’ ve seen , people start punching people , Asian folks @ @ @ @ @ .
McCain insisted that she was sensitive to those concerns , but she argued that @ @ @ @ @ for Democrats .

“The View” co-host Meghan McCain warned President Donald Trump would be re-elected if his critics complained too loudly about him blaming the coronavirus on China.
Former co-host Sara Haines, who’s filling in for self-quarantining Joy Behar, and the remotely working Whoopi Goldberg agreed the president was wrong to call COVID-19 the “China virus.”
“You know, people as we’ve seen, people start punching people, Asian folks out,” Goldberg said.
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McCain insisted that she was sensitive to those concerns, but she argued that it was a losing issue for Democrats.
www.salon.com/2020/03/18/meghan-mccain-warns-trump-could-get-re-elected-by-scapegoating-china-for-coronavirus-on-the-view_partner/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Ron Paul: Government Making Coronavirus Outbreak Worse, Let The Free Market Address Supply And Deman

Ron Paul: Government Making Coronavirus Outbreak Worse, Let The Free Market Address Supply And Demand

As with everything else , the government is making the coronavirus outbreak much worse .
Rep. Thomas Massie , one @ @ @ @ @ in the US House believes government should step out of the way and let the @ @ @ @ @ things like testing kits .
Plus , Massie briefs the Liberty Report on the ongoing @ @ @ @ @ posed by the PATRIOT Act as it has been temporarily renewed .
Don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ .

by Ron Paul of Ron Paul Liberty Report
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As with everything else, the government is making the coronavirus outbreak much worse. Rep. Thomas Massie, one of the few original thinkers in the US House believes government should step out of the way and let the free market address demands for things like testing kits. Plus, Massie briefs the Liberty Report on the ongoing threat to our civil liberties posed by the PATRIOT Act as it has been temporarily renewed. Don’t miss today’s program.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE:

THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE:

A Global Level 4 Health Advisory .
All Americans abroad told to come home .
All Americans at home told @ @ @ @ @ .
“ If you choose to travel internationally , your travel plans may be severely @ @ @ @ @ be forced to remain outside of the United States for an indefinite timeframe.
” Possibly @ @ @ @ @ jets , halting stock trading , and ordering shelter in place .
“ European nations @ @ @ @ @ jets .
.
.
.
There are some internal government models that show that the @ @ @ @ @ the coming two months could reach over 5 million.
” And : “ The moves @ @ @ @ @ being discussed and not imminent .
However , we were also told that decisions are @ @ @ @ @ levels of the administration.
” Remember ( like last week ) when the standard criticism @ @ @ @ @ t doing enough ?

A Global Level 4 Health Advisory. All Americans abroad told to come home. All Americans at home told not to plan international travel. “If you choose to travel internationally, your travel plans may be severely disrupted, and you may be forced to remain outside of the United States for an indefinite timeframe.”
Possibly related: Trump eyes grounding jets, halting stock trading, and ordering shelter in place. “European nations are also considering grounding passenger jets. . . . There are some internal government models that show that the number of people infected in the coming two months could reach over 5 million.”
And: “The moves were described as very seriously being discussed and not imminent. However, we were also told that decisions are moving fast at the top levels of the administration.”
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Remember (like last week) when the standard criticism was that Trump wasn’t doing enough?
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Trump: “We Don’t Want To Pick Winners And Losers”, But “I Do” Support The Government Buying Stocks O

Trump: “We Don’t Want To Pick Winners And Losers”, But “I Do” Support The Government Buying Stocks Of Individual Companies

( Silver Doctors Editors ) Today ’ s Coronavirus Task Force was an interesting one .
The briefing started off with President Trump announcing his efforts on getting Americans home who are held as prisoners in foreign lands .
Much of the briefing then focused on the progress that ’ s being made at the FDA , which includes things they ’ re doing with regards to fast-tracking treatments for Covid-19 .
During the Q & A , however , is where things get interesting .
President Trump and Mike Pence were avoiding reporters questions even more so than normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer questions , or simply changing the topic altogether .
A few bombshells came out , however , as far as things the President feels are appropriate during this crisis .
For example , President Trump was asked if there should be conditions placed on companies that they can ’ t engage in share buybacks if they get bailed-out , to which Trump said he supports that .
Additionally , President Trump was asked if he would support the US Federal Government buying shares of individual companies , and President Trump said he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President also said he does not believe in picking winners and losers .
If you have not seen today ’ s press briefing in its entirety , it ’ s embedded below ( starting at the time-stamp where Trump says “ we don ’ t want to pick winners & losers ” :

(Silver Doctors Editors) Today’s Coronavirus Task Force was an interesting one.
The briefing started off with President Trump announcing his efforts on getting Americans home who are held as prisoners in foreign lands.
Much of the briefing then focused on the progress that’s being made at the FDA, which includes things they’re doing with regards to fast-tracking treatments for Covid-19.
During the Q&A, however, is where things get interesting.
President Trump and Mike Pence were avoiding reporters questions even more so than normal today, side-stepping questions, refusing to answer questions, or simply changing the topic altogether.
A few bombshells came out, however, as far as things the President feels are appropriate during this crisis.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
For example, President Trump was asked if there should be conditions placed on companies that they can’t engage in share buybacks if they get bailed-out, to which Trump said he supports that.
Additionally, President Trump was asked if he would support the US Federal Government buying shares of individual companies, and President Trump said he would support that.
Paradoxically, the President also said he does not believe in picking winners and losers.
If you have not seen today’s press briefing in its entirety, it’s embedded below (starting at the time-stamp where Trump says “we don’t want to pick winners & losers”:
Moving forward, it appears that Keeping America Great means keeping America crony-fascist.
Developing…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness —

Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness — ProPublica

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr , R-N.C. , may have cashed in before the stock market was in free @ @ @ @ @ outbreak , according to a new report .
ProPublica alleged on Thursday that Burr “ @ @ @ @ @ of his stocks , unloading between $ 582,029 and $ 1.56 million of his holdings @ @ @ @ @ separate transactions ” in filings listed in the U.S. Senate Financial Disclosures website as he @ @ @ @ @ the rising threat of the virus .
A spokesperson for Burr told Fox News , @ @ @ @ @ financial disclosure form for personal transactions made several weeks before the U.S. and financial markets @ @ @ @ @ to the growing coronavirus outbreak .
As the situation continues to evolve daily , he @ @ @ @ @ the steep and sudden toll this pandemic is taking on our economy .
He supported @ @ @ @ @ provide $ 7.8 billion for response efforts and this week ’ s bipartisan bill to @ @ @ @ @ and small families .
”

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., may have cashed in before the stock market was in free fall due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to a new report.
ProPublica alleged on Thursday that Burr “sold off a significant percentage of his stocks, unloading between $582,029 and $1.56 million of his holdings on Feb. 13 in 29 separate transactions” in filings listed in the U.S. Senate Financial Disclosures website as he was regularly being briefed on the rising threat of the virus.
A spokesperson for Burr told Fox News, “Senator Burr filed a financial disclosure form for personal transactions made several weeks before the U.S. and financial markets showed signs of volatility due to the growing coronavirus outbreak. As the situation continues to evolve daily, he has been deeply concerned by the steep and sudden toll this pandemic is taking on our economy. He supported Congress’ immediate efforts to provide $7.8 billion for response efforts and this week’s bipartisan bill to provide relief for American business and small families.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Los Angeles Mayor just “Ordered” all of his citizens to Shelter in Place

Los Angeles County Is Now Under a Shelter in Place Order Los Angeles , like San Francisco… , now has @ @ @ @ @ which is being called a order .
City mayor Eric Garcetti , Los Angeles County @ @ @ @ @ Department of Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer jointly announced the new imperative in a @ @ @ @ @ , which means a mandatory ( and temporary ) closure of all non-essential businesses .
@ @ @ @ @ give a timeline for the lifting of the order .

My, Oh, my…
—–
Los Angeles County Is Now Under a Shelter in Place Order
Los Angeles, like San Francisco…, now has its own shelter-in-place mandate, which is being called a “Safer at Home” order. City mayor Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, and Department of Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer jointly announced the new imperative in a press conference just moments ago, which means a mandatory (and temporary) closure of all non-essential businesses. County Supervisor Barger did not give a timeline for the lifting of the order.
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—– SNIP —–
Source:
la.eater.com/2020/3/19/21187659/los-angeles-county-safer-at-home-shelter-in-place
h/t Coppercoal


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Oil Could Crash To $10 As World Runs Out Of Storage

The growing supply glut in oil markets could end up filling all storage tanks worldwide , potentially causing prices to drop even further Global oil storage could overflow in the coming weeks as the coronavirus pandemic has dealt a severe blow to demand while Saudi Arabia has promised to supply 12.3 million bpd—not just in April but also over the next few months .
Reuters reports , citing analysts , that such a development would overwhelm the already troubled oil industry , forcing production shutdowns .
Storage facilities—both on land and offshore—are already filling up , the news agency noted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started to increase its deliveries of crude .
If such a scenario unfolds , some analysts believe oil prices could slide as low as $ 10 per barrel .
“ We believe we have not seen the worst of the price rout yet , as the market will soon come to realize that it may be facing one of the largest supply surpluses in modern oil market history in April , ” Reuters quoted Rystad Energy ’ s head of oil markets , Bjornar Tonhaugen .
Saudi Arabia said yesterday it will maintain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next few months , with exports to rise to a record 10 million bpd from next month , Reuters reported on Wednesday .
Meanwhile , the glut is causing traders to offer their cargos at steep discounts in a desperate effort to find buyers , Reuters also reported .
This raises some questions about Saudi Arabia ’ s ability to sell the excess crude it plans to be producing over the coming months .
“ There are no buyers , ” an oil trader from the U.S. told Reuters .
“ Refiners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ producers in trouble .
This is a disaster with no end in sight.
” “ Cargoes are being severely discounted to move as there are little prospects to export and also very few options to store on ship and/or tanks , ” another industry source told Reuters .
At the time of writing , Brent crude was trading at less than $ 28 a barrel , with West Texas Intermediate at $ 22.78 a barrel .

By Irina Slav
The growing supply glut in oil markets could end up filling all storage tanks worldwide, potentially causing prices to drop even further
Global oil storage could overflow in the coming weeks as the coronavirus pandemic has dealt a severe blow to demand while Saudi Arabia has promised to supply 12.3 million bpd—not just in April but also over the next few months.
Reuters reports, citing analysts, that such a development would overwhelm the already troubled oil industry, forcing production shutdowns. Storage facilities—both on land and offshore—are already filling up, the news agency noted, and Saudi Arabia has not yet started to increase its deliveries of crude.
If such a scenario unfolds, some analysts believe oil prices could slide as low as $10 per barrel.
“We believe we have not seen the worst of the price rout yet, as the market will soon come to realize that it may be facing one of the largest supply surpluses in modern oil market history in April,” Reuters quoted Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen.
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Saudi Arabia said yesterday it will maintain oil supply at 12.3 million bpd over the next few months, with exports to rise to a record 10 million bpd from next month, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the glut is causing traders to offer their cargos at steep discounts in a desperate effort to find buyers, Reuters also reported. This raises some questions about Saudi Arabia’s ability to sell the excess crude it plans to be producing over the coming months.
“There are no buyers,” an oil trader from the U.S. told Reuters. “Refiners in trouble, exporters in trouble, producers in trouble. This is a disaster with no end in sight.”
“Cargoes are being severely discounted to move as there are little prospects to export and also very few options to store on ship and/or tanks,” another industry source told Reuters.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at less than $28 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $22.78 a barrel.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com