investmentwatchblog--2020-10-15--Are the big social media companies literally trying to determine who wins the presidential election?

In 2016 , the big social media companies were criticized for allowing others to influence the outcome of the election , but in 2020 the big social media companies are directly interfering in the election more than anyone else is by a very wide margin .
They insist that they have a duty to prevent the flow of “ harmful information ” , but whenever they act it always seems to help Democrats and hurt Republicans .
It has become obvious that Facebook , Twitter and other large social media companies are trying to help Democrats win , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presidential election .
No matter what you think of Joe Biden and no matter what you think of Donald Trump , all Americans should want the election to be fair .
Unfortunately , the big social media companies have discovered that they have the ability to sway public opinion on a massive scale , and this is the first election in which they are really flexing those muscles .
But if we allow those that control the levers of power on the Internet to determine the outcomes of our elections from now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the American experiment will be over .
On Thursday , the New York Post published a bombshell article about Hunter Biden that included some really shocking new revelations .
As soon as I read the article I recognized that it was very newsworthy and I immediately linked to it on The Most Important News , and other conservative websites did the same thing .
Meanwhile , Facebook and Twitter were working aggressively to limit the spread of the article… Facebook and Twitter took steps on Wednesday to limit the spread of a controversial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden , sparking outrage among conservatives and stoking debate over how social media platforms should tackle misinformation ahead of the US election .
In an unprecedented step against a major news publication , Twitter blocked users from posting links to the Post story or photos from the unconfirmed report .
Users attempting to share the story were shown a notice saying : “ We can ’ t complete this request because this link has been identified by Twitter or our partners as being potentially harmful.
” If Facebook and Twitter had taken similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the years , we could forgive them for this sort of censorship .
But no matter where the leaks come from , and no matter how sketchy the sources are , the big social media companies always allow questionable stories about Trump to spread like wildfire .
They only step in when a story is going to be “ harmful ” to Biden , and that is fundamentally unfair .
In addition to preventing the spread of the story , Twitter actually decided to lock the New York Post out of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary Kayleigh McEnany tweeted about this story , they locked her account too .
20 years ago , it would have been unthinkable for someone to try to censor White House officials , but now it is happening on a regular basis .
Prominent conservatives like James Woods and Jack Posobiec were also locked out of their accounts by Twitter , and if you try to tweet any of the primary material mentioned in the New York Post story you might get locked out of your account too .
But anything goes when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say anything you like and spread any sort of wild rumors that you wish , and they will never do anything to you .
Republicans in the Senate such as Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz were absolutely furious when they realized what Facebook and Twitter were doing , and they demanded answers .
Unfortunately , Facebook and Twitter are not backing down .
And why should they ?
They have been getting away with censoring political speech for years .
Earlier this month , conservative host Mark Levin was absolutely outraged when Facebook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ middle of election season… Why don ’ t we ever hear about liberal voices getting censored like this ?
Even more alarming is the fact that some Republican candidates for Congress are not being allowed to buy ads for their campaigns at all .
Aja Smith is an African-American conservative running in California ’ s 41st Congressional District , and Facebook has completely banned her from running political advertisements… And other Republican candidates in California also report that they have been shadowbanned by the big social media companies… If we allow Facebook and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will just get worse with each passing election .
But so far nobody has found a way to stop them .
And once Democrats are in control in Washington , there will be very little that will be able to be done .
If Democrats are able to take the White House , the Senate and the House of Representatives in November , the big social media companies will deserve a ton of the credit .
They may think that they are “ saving America ” , but the truth is that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entire history , political speech has never been stifled the way that it is being stifled today .
Our Constitution may still say that we are entitled to free speech , but those that control our most important online gathering places have a much different agenda .

by Michael Snyder
In 2016, the big social media companies were criticized for allowing others to influence the outcome of the election, but in 2020 the big social media companies are directly interfering in the election more than anyone else is by a very wide margin. They insist that they have a duty to prevent the flow of “harmful information”, but whenever they act it always seems to help Democrats and hurt Republicans. It has become obvious that Facebook, Twitter and other large social media companies are trying to help Democrats win, and that is especially true when it comes to the presidential election. No matter what you think of Joe Biden and no matter what you think of Donald Trump, all Americans should want the election to be fair. Unfortunately, the big social media companies have discovered that they have the ability to sway public opinion on a massive scale, and this is the first election in which they are really flexing those muscles. But if we allow those that control the levers of power on the Internet to determine the outcomes of our elections from now on, our system is doomed and the American experiment will be over.
On Thursday, the New York Post published a bombshell article about Hunter Biden that included some really shocking new revelations. As soon as I read the article I recognized that it was very newsworthy and I immediately linked to it on The Most Important News, and other conservative websites did the same thing.
Meanwhile, Facebook and Twitter were working aggressively to limit the spread of the article…
Facebook and Twitter took steps on Wednesday to limit the spread of a controversial New York Post article critical of Joe Biden, sparking outrage among conservatives and stoking debate over how social media platforms should tackle misinformation ahead of the US election. In an unprecedented step against a major news publication, Twitter blocked users from posting links to the Post story or photos from the unconfirmed report. Users attempting to share the story were shown a notice saying: “We can’t complete this request because this link has been identified by Twitter or our partners as being potentially harmful.”
If Facebook and Twitter had taken similar steps when stuff was leaked about Trump over the years, we could forgive them for this sort of censorship.
But no matter where the leaks come from, and no matter how sketchy the sources are, the big social media companies always allow questionable stories about Trump to spread like wildfire.
They only step in when a story is going to be “harmful” to Biden, and that is fundamentally unfair.
In addition to preventing the spread of the story, Twitter actually decided to lock the New York Post out of their entire account.
When White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany tweeted about this story, they locked her account too.
20 years ago, it would have been unthinkable for someone to try to censor White House officials, but now it is happening on a regular basis.
Prominent conservatives like James Woods and Jack Posobiec were also locked out of their accounts by Twitter, and if you try to tweet any of the primary material mentioned in the New York Post story you might get locked out of your account too.
But anything goes when it comes to Trump. You can say anything you like and spread any sort of wild rumors that you wish, and they will never do anything to you.
Republicans in the Senate such as Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz were absolutely furious when they realized what Facebook and Twitter were doing, and they demanded answers.
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Unfortunately, Facebook and Twitter are not backing down.
And why should they? They have been getting away with censoring political speech for years.
Earlier this month, conservative host Mark Levin was absolutely outraged when Facebook decided to shadowban his account in the middle of election season…
Facebook has just sent us this message. It’s a clear effort at censorship. Every link I post is from a legitimate source. But because so many people are seeing what I’m posting and we’re within weeks of the election it’s clear that Facebook is trying to influence the election’s outcome. It’s also clear Facebook is pushing a leftwing agenda.
Why don’t we ever hear about liberal voices getting censored like this?
Even more alarming is the fact that some Republican candidates for Congress are not being allowed to buy ads for their campaigns at all. Aja Smith is an African-American conservative running in California’s 41st Congressional District, and Facebook has completely banned her from running political advertisements…
Just tried to run a FB ad to promote my FB page and it told me I cannot run political ads or promote my page! I am shadow-banned on Twitter now FB is giving me a hard time.
And other Republican candidates in California also report that they have been shadowbanned by the big social media companies…
Buzz Patterson, candidate for California’s 7th Congressional District told the Globe he and his campaign have been censored and noticed shadow banning. Patterson has 114,100 Twitter followers, but few retweeted posts. Eric Early, candidate for California’s 28th Congressional District says it appears Facebook has limited his followers at 23,000. On Twitter, Early has 84,800 followers, but his Tweets don’t get retweeted as much as they should.
If we allow Facebook and Twitter to keep doing this, it will just get worse with each passing election.
But so far nobody has found a way to stop them.
And once Democrats are in control in Washington, there will be very little that will be able to be done.
If Democrats are able to take the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives in November, the big social media companies will deserve a ton of the credit.
They may think that they are “saving America”, but the truth is that they are actually killing it.
In our entire history, political speech has never been stifled the way that it is being stifled today. Our Constitution may still say that we are entitled to free speech, but those that control our most important online gathering places have a much different agenda.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-15--Black Man Changing Minds

Black Man Changing Minds

After researching all of the facts from this video it only made sense to vote for Donald Trump .
Seriously @ @ @ @ @ .
Put all the fake twisted “ facts ” you hear on social media and @ @ @ @ @ The two things that mean the most to me are the protection of our constitutional @ @ @ @ @ .

After researching all of the facts from this video it only made sense to vote for Donald Trump. Seriously put all petty issues aside. Put all the fake twisted “facts” you hear on social media and do the research yourself.
The two things that mean the most to me are the protection of our constitutional rights and equality for all.
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Feel free to share this video.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--Another Trick being used against Trump

Another Trick being used against Trump

After responding to several posts here on FR about not being able to view certain Twitter accounts I have performed an experiment .
The problem : It seems that going to certain Twitter accounts that they do not load or they display with a message , “ Try Again ” .
I have responded to several posts to simply hit refresh multiple times to see the content .
The question : Is this intentional ?
Is Twitter doing this to dissuade people from reading certain Twitter feeds ?
The experiment : I went to multiple Twitter pages ( on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I do not have a Twitter account – I deleted mine years ago during the Hussein Administration .
When going to the Twitter feeds , I watched to see if the page immediately loaded or was I met with an error message .
@ realDonaldTrump – had to refresh 3 times @ TrumpWarRoom – had to refresh 3 times @ TeamTrump – immediate load @ RudyGiuliani – had to refresh 3 times @ GOPChairwoman -immediate load @ RealRLimbaugh – had to refresh twice @ EricTrump – had to refresh 3 times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a very high speed internet connection .
My browser cache is cleared .
My computer is new ( this year ) , optimized , has antivirus protection and is powerful with tons of memory .
All of these tests were performed back to back .
Some accounts that immediately loaded had blocked content earlier in the day and I had to refresh more than once to view content earlier today .
Conclusion : I am fairly positive that Twitter is intentionally blocking initial access to conservative Twitter feeds to make people give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eventually do allow access so they have plausible deniability .

via FR:
After responding to several posts here on FR about not being able to view certain Twitter accounts I have performed an experiment.
The problem: It seems that going to certain Twitter accounts that they do not load or they display with a message, “Try Again”. I have responded to several posts to simply hit refresh multiple times to see the content.
The question: Is this intentional? Is Twitter doing this to dissuade people from reading certain Twitter feeds?
The experiment: I went to multiple Twitter pages (on the web, not a phone app). I do not have a Twitter account – I deleted mine years ago during the Hussein Administration. When going to the Twitter feeds, I watched to see if the page immediately loaded or was I met with an error message.
The results:
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@realDonaldTrump – had to refresh 3 times
@TrumpWarRoom – had to refresh 3 times
@TeamTrump – immediate load
@RudyGiuliani – had to refresh 3 times
@GOPChairwoman -immediate load
@RealRLimbaugh – had to refresh twice
@EricTrump – had to refresh 3 times
@kayleighmcenany – had to refresh once
@JoeBiden – immediate and visually fastest load
I have a very high speed internet connection. My browser cache is cleared. My computer is new (this year), optimized, has antivirus protection and is powerful with tons of memory.
All of these tests were performed back to back. Some accounts that immediately loaded had blocked content earlier in the day and I had to refresh more than once to view content earlier today.
Conclusion: I am fairly positive that Twitter is intentionally blocking initial access to conservative Twitter feeds to make people give up and not view content. They eventually do allow access so they have plausible deniability.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--Good Or Bad Q3 2020 Earnings Season?

Good Or Bad Q3 2020 Earnings Season?

It ’ s possible inflation spikes in 2021 due to a return to normalcy and a fiscal stimulus .
That sounds unlikely now , but imagine a world where demand for goods and services increases and the leisure and hospitality industry fully reopens .
That largely depends on the solutions to COVID-19 and the size of the stimulus .
Economists believe the biggest stimulus will occur if the Democrats win the Senate and the Presidency .
The chart below shows the potential paths PCE inflation can take if there is no stimulus , a base case stimulus ( the $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and a Biden stimulus .
Currently , inflation is being suppressed by rent costs .
That will turnaround if COVID-19 is under control .
The COVID-19 situation has been getting worse in the past few weeks because of the Midwest .
Specifically , Wisconsin had the 3rd most new cases in the country on Wednesday which is a big deal because it is the 20th largest state by population .
The 7 day average of new cases in the state spiked to 2,840 which is a new high as case counts have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Midwest is seeing a wave of cases because it never had a big one yet .
It seems like each area that hasn ’ t seen a spike in cases eventually has one .
There has been a modest increase in cases in the other regions , but that ’ s likely because of higher testing .
The 7 day average of testing reached 1.021 million which was a new high .
The bad news is there were 37,046 people in the hospital which is over 7,000 more than the trough in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7 day average of new deaths fell to just 685 .
Q3 earnings season has just started .
It comes at a time when COVID-19 cases are rising and the election is in focus .
Plus , we have the uncertainty of the stimulus .
Earnings season is a reminder to cut out the noise .
Don ’ t focus on anything that won ’ t impact earnings ( not saying the previous things mentioned are noise ) .
It ’ s also a reminder of how expensive some software stocks have gotten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and euphoric profit expectations isn ’ t a good idea .
That explains how the CLOU cloud index is up 62 % year to date .
The obvious aspect of earnings season many first level thinkers will focus on is how well stocks have done compared to actual results .
As you can see from the chart above , EPS estimates ended the quarter at -21 % growth .
Even if estimates are wildly beaten , there will still be a sharp decline with the stock market near its record high .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock market is due for a crash .
For one thing , the sectors with the worst earnings have done the worst and the sectors with the best earnings have outperformed .
Healthcare ’ s earnings are expected to fall just 40 basis points , while energy ’ s earnings are expected to fall 118.4 % .
That ’ s right , they will fall more than 100 % because there will be losses .
Remember , 2019 wasn ’ t a great year for energy as it underperformed the overall index .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the worst ever for the sector .
Some might wonder why anyone would buy energy if profits are down so much .
The answer is expectations for a cyclical upswing .
The goal is to buy when the industry is hurting the most because lower production leads to higher prices .
Stocks are up even though earnings aren ’ t because traders jumped the gun on the recovery .
This trade was a little different from normal though as we have seen the value stocks underperform at a time where they usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
That ’ s because this isn ’ t a true recovery .
Yes , job creation jumped more than ever .
However , in this new economy , many of the old businesses can ’ t survive/thrive because of social distancing .
This might be a good earnings season as the economy recovered quicker than expected , at least for large cap companies .
It ’ s not the same for independent leisure and hospitality companies of course .
As you can see from the chart above , the 1 month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ falling .
With 2 strongly positive months , the 3 month average is now at a record high .
We will be following the rate of change of Q4 EPS estimates which will be impacted by guidance .
We will also track the number of firms who give full year EPS guidance .
In Q2 , 147 firms withdrew guidance and 138 gave it .
The good news is most of the withdrawals are likely done .
As you can see from the chart above , 37 firms gave guidance after withdrawing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it in Q1 .
We ’ re not saying uncertainty is gone .
It ’ s just that there isn ’ t more uncertainty than there was 3 months ago .
Every week we get more data on COVID-19 , whether it ’ s deaths , cases , testing , vaccines , or therapeutics .
The smartest thing to do is to give various scenarios to help investors .
A firm can say it sees this number of sales if a COVID-19 is contained and this number if it isn ’ t .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and without a stimulus .
It can detail those results or just give a wider than normal range .
Obviously , if the range is too wide , it becomes meaningless .
Also , you don ’ t want to focus on the middle of the range because that ’ s probably the least likely result .
Normally , investors focus on the midpoint , but in this case it ’ s an either-or scenario .
Inflation could rise meaningfully in 2021 if COVID-19 is under control and the Biden fiscal stimulus is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even if the results beat estimates by a wide margin , we are still looking at a greater than 15 % decline from last year .
That being said , guidance has been strong and more firms will be giving it .
Don ’ t harp on overall growth because there are 2 markets .
There are the industries that benefit from the new economy and those that don ’ t .
Invest in the value cyclicals if you see a recovery next year with less COVID-19 and a stimulus .
Software @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quo remains .

by UPFINA
It’s possible inflation spikes in 2021 due to a return to normalcy and a fiscal stimulus. That sounds unlikely now, but imagine a world where demand for goods and services increases and the leisure and hospitality industry fully reopens. That largely depends on the solutions to COVID-19 and the size of the stimulus. Economists believe the biggest stimulus will occur if the Democrats win the Senate and the Presidency. The chart below shows the potential paths PCE inflation can take if there is no stimulus, a base case stimulus (the $1.8 trillion deal the GOP proposed), and a Biden stimulus. Currently, inflation is being suppressed by rent costs. That will turnaround if COVID-19 is under control.
With the Fed switching to a flexible average inflation target, our modelling finds two necessary conditions for inflation to reach 2% on a sustainable basis by 2023 – public confidence in the new framework and further fiscal stimulus. We explain more here: t.co/tk9p983buI pic.twitter.com/PRL3oNnARD — Oxford Economics (@OxfordEconomics) October 15, 2020
The COVID-19 situation has been getting worse in the past few weeks because of the Midwest. Specifically, Wisconsin had the 3rd most new cases in the country on Wednesday which is a big deal because it is the 20th largest state by population. The 7 day average of new cases in the state spiked to 2,840 which is a new high as case counts have gone vertical. It’s possible the Midwest is seeing a wave of cases because it never had a big one yet.
While much of Europe grapples with a second wave of coronavirus infections, the US may already be on the cusp of its third. pic.twitter.com/w0CIyocjr5 — Capital Economics – US (@CapEconUS) October 14, 2020
It seems like each area that hasn’t seen a spike in cases eventually has one. There has been a modest increase in cases in the other regions, but that’s likely because of higher testing. The 7 day average of testing reached 1.021 million which was a new high. The bad news is there were 37,046 people in the hospital which is over 7,000 more than the trough in September. The good news is the 7 day average of new deaths fell to just 685.
Earnings Season Is Here
Q3 earnings season has just started. It comes at a time when COVID-19 cases are rising and the election is in focus. Plus, we have the uncertainty of the stimulus. Earnings season is a reminder to cut out the noise. Don’t focus on anything that won’t impact earnings (not saying the previous things mentioned are noise). It’s also a reminder of how expensive some software stocks have gotten. Pricing stocks based on future sales and euphoric profit expectations isn’t a good idea. That explains how the CLOU cloud index is up 62% year to date.
The obvious aspect of earnings season many first level thinkers will focus on is how well stocks have done compared to actual results. As you can see from the chart above, EPS estimates ended the quarter at -21% growth. Even if estimates are wildly beaten, there will still be a sharp decline with the stock market near its record high. However, that doesn’t mean the stock market is due for a crash. For one thing, the sectors with the worst earnings have done the worst and the sectors with the best earnings have outperformed.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Healthcare’s earnings are expected to fall just 40 basis points, while energy’s earnings are expected to fall 118.4%. That’s right, they will fall more than 100% because there will be losses. Remember, 2019 wasn’t a great year for energy as it underperformed the overall index. This year will go down as one of the worst ever for the sector. Some might wonder why anyone would buy energy if profits are down so much. The answer is expectations for a cyclical upswing. The goal is to buy when the industry is hurting the most because lower production leads to higher prices.
Strong Guidance
Stocks are up even though earnings aren’t because traders jumped the gun on the recovery. This trade was a little different from normal though as we have seen the value stocks underperform at a time where they usually do well (early in the cycle). That’s because this isn’t a true recovery. Yes, job creation jumped more than ever. However, in this new economy, many of the old businesses can’t survive/thrive because of social distancing.
This might be a good earnings season as the economy recovered quicker than expected, at least for large cap companies. It’s not the same for independent leisure and hospitality companies of course. As you can see from the chart above, the 1 month guidance ratio hit a record high before falling. With 2 strongly positive months, the 3 month average is now at a record high. We will be following the rate of change of Q4 EPS estimates which will be impacted by guidance.
37 $SPX companies provided annual EPS guidance for 2020 or 2021 during the Q2 earnings season after withdrawing annual EPS guidance for 2020 or 2021 during the Q1 earnings season. t.co/cnkc0G3t1I pic.twitter.com/j8DnuYpI8k — FactSet (@FactSet) October 10, 2020
We will also track the number of firms who give full year EPS guidance. In Q2, 147 firms withdrew guidance and 138 gave it. The good news is most of the withdrawals are likely done. As you can see from the chart above, 37 firms gave guidance after withdrawing it and just 3 withdrew it after giving it in Q1. We’re not saying uncertainty is gone. It’s just that there isn’t more uncertainty than there was 3 months ago. Every week we get more data on COVID-19, whether it’s deaths, cases, testing, vaccines, or therapeutics.
The smartest thing to do is to give various scenarios to help investors. A firm can say it sees this number of sales if a COVID-19 is contained and this number if it isn’t. The firm can also give guidance with and without a stimulus. It can detail those results or just give a wider than normal range. Obviously, if the range is too wide, it becomes meaningless. Also, you don’t want to focus on the middle of the range because that’s probably the least likely result. Normally, investors focus on the midpoint, but in this case it’s an either-or scenario.
Conclusion
Inflation could rise meaningfully in 2021 if COVID-19 is under control and the Biden fiscal stimulus is large. Q3 earnings season is here. Even if the results beat estimates by a wide margin, we are still looking at a greater than 15% decline from last year. That being said, guidance has been strong and more firms will be giving it. Don’t harp on overall growth because there are 2 markets. There are the industries that benefit from the new economy and those that don’t. Invest in the value cyclicals if you see a recovery next year with less COVID-19 and a stimulus. Software could maintain its gains if the status quo remains.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--Do we face austerity and tax rises after the Covid-19 pandemic?

We have been in uncertain times for a while now and this has only been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic .
One particular area of concern are the public finances of nations who are copying the “ Spend !
Spend !
Spend !
” prescription of football pools winner Viv Nicholson .
For younger readers the football pools were what people did before lotteries .
Indeed if we note the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor there was an issue even before the new era .
We get a pretty conventional response for the IMF which has this as a mantra .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the fiscal strategies approved by the IMF have been a disaster .
There is of course Greece but in a way Japan is worse .
Following IMF advice it began a policy of raising its Consumption Tax to reduce its fiscal deficit .
It took five years for it to take the second step as the first in 2014 caused quite a dive in the economy .
Then the second step last year saw Japan ’ s economy contract again , just in time to be on the back foot as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expecting to see quite a change this year .
Oh and where have we heard this before ?
The old this is “ temporary ” line .
I make the point not because I have a crystal ball but because I know I do not .
Right now the path to the end of this year looks extremely uncertain with for example France imposing a curfew on Paris and other major cities and Germany hinting at another lockdown .
So we have little idea about 2021 let alone 2025 .
The IMF is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around .
I would have more time for its view on wasteful spending and protection of the vulnerable if the places where it has intervened had actually seen much reform and protection .
The IMF view this time around is based on this view of public spending .
If true we are saved !
After all each £ or Euro or $ will become 2.7 of them and them 2.7 times that .
But then we spot “ has the potential ” and it finishes with a sentence that reminds me of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great advantage from the South Sea Bubble .
For those unaware of the story it disappeared without trace but with investors money .
For newer readers this whole area has become a minefield for the IMF because it thought the fiscal multiplier for Greece would be 0.5 and got involved in imposing austerity on Greece .
It then was forced into a U-Turn putting the multiplier above 1 as it was forced to do by the economic collapse which was by then visible to all .
It has provided a British spin on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretty much everywhere we look .
I suggest you take these numbers as a broad brush as it will be a long economic journey to April exemplified by that fact that whilst I am typing this it has been announced that London will rise a tier in the UK Covid-19 restrictions from this weekend .
I note they think that £250 billion of this is an active response and £100 billion is passive or a form of automatic stabiliser .
They follow the IMF line but with a kicker that it is understandably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much less optimistic than the IMF about the middle of this decade/ As you can see the mood music from the establishment and think tanks has changed somewhat since the early days of the credit crunch.Austerity was en vogue then but now we see that if at all it is a few years ahead .
Let me now switch to the elephant in the room which has oiled this and it was my subject of yesterday , where the fall in bond yields means governments can borrow very cheaply and sometimes be paid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hitting the newswires this morning .
It is -0.61 % as I type this and even the thirty-year yield is now -0.22 % .
So all new German borrowing is better than free as it provides a return for taxpayers rather than investors .
According to Aman Portugal is beginning to enjoy more of this as well .
Although for our purposes we need to look at longer-term borrowing so the thirty-year issue at 0.47 % is more relevant .
But in the circumstances that is amazingly cheap .
In essence this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is one arm of government helping another as the enormous pile of bonds purchased by central banks continue to grow .
The Bank of England bought another £4.4 billion this week .
So we have a window where this matters much less than before .
It does not mean we can borrow whatever we like it does mean that old levels of debt to GDP such as 90 % ( remember it ? )
and 100 % and even 120 % are different now .
In the end the game changer is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a warning as pre pandemic we had issues with it .
Rather awkward that coincides with the QE era doesn ’ t it as we mull the way it gives with one hand but takes away with another ?
It was only last week I warned about this .
Good job it has not got especially cold yet .

by Shaun Richards
We have been in uncertain times for a while now and this has only been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. One particular area of concern are the public finances of nations who are copying the “Spend! Spend! Spend!” prescription of football pools winner Viv Nicholson. For younger readers the football pools were what people did before lotteries. Indeed if we note the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor there was an issue even before the new era.
Prior to the pandemic, public and private debt were
already high and rising in most countries, reaching
225 percent of GDP in 2019, 30 percentage points
above the level prevailing before the global financial
crisis. Global public debt rose faster over the period,
standing at 83 percent of GDP in 2019.
We get a pretty conventional response for the IMF which has this as a mantra.
And despite access to financing varying sharply across countries, medium- to long-term fiscal strategies were needed virtually everywhere.
There is a counterpoint here which is that the fiscal strategies approved by the IMF have been a disaster. There is of course Greece but in a way Japan is worse. Following IMF advice it began a policy of raising its Consumption Tax to reduce its fiscal deficit. It took five years for it to take the second step as the first in 2014 caused quite a dive in the economy. Then the second step last year saw Japan’s economy contract again, just in time to be on the back foot as the Covid-19 pandemic arrived.
The IMF is expecting to see quite a change this year.
In 2020, global general government debt is estimated to make an unprecedented jump up to almost 100 percent of GDP. The major increase in the primary deficit and the sharp contraction in economic activity of 4.7 percent projected in the latest World Economic Outlook, are the main drivers of this development.
Oh and where have we heard this before? The old this is “temporary” line.
But 2020 is an exceptional year in terms of
debt dynamics, and public debt is expected to stabilize
to about 100 percent of GDP until 2025, benefiting
from negative interest-growth differentials.
I make the point not because I have a crystal ball but because I know I do not. Right now the path to the end of this year looks extremely uncertain with for example France imposing a curfew on Paris and other major cities and Germany hinting at another lockdown. So we have little idea about 2021 let alone 2025.
The IMF is in favour of more spending this time around.
These high levels of public debt are hence not the
most immediate risk. The near-term priority is to
avoid premature withdrawal of fiscal support. Support
should persist, at least into 2021, to sustain the recovery and to limit long-term scarring. Health and education should be given prime consideration everywhere.
I would have more time for its view on wasteful spending and protection of the vulnerable if the places where it has intervened had actually seen much reform and protection.
Fiscally constrained economies should prioritize the
protection of the most vulnerable and eliminate
wasteful spending.
Economic Theory
The IMF view this time around is based on this view of public spending.
The Fiscal Monitor estimates that a 1 percent of
GDP increase in public investment, in advanced
economies and emerging markets, has the potential to push GDP up by 2.7 percent, private investment by
10 percent and, most importantly, to create between
20 and 33 million jobs, directly and indirectly. Investment in health and education and in digital and green
infrastructure can connect people, improve economy wide productivity, and improve resilience to climate
change and future pandemics.
If true we are saved! After all each £ or Euro or $ will become 2.7 of them and them 2.7 times that. But then we spot “has the potential” and it finishes with a sentence that reminds me of the company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage from the South Sea Bubble. For those unaware of the story it disappeared without trace but with investors money.
For newer readers this whole area has become a minefield for the IMF because it thought the fiscal multiplier for Greece would be 0.5 and got involved in imposing austerity on Greece. It then was forced into a U-Turn putting the multiplier above 1 as it was forced to do by the economic collapse which was by then visible to all.
Institute for Fiscal Studies
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It has provided a British spin on these events although the theme is true pretty much everywhere we look.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures implemented to contain it will lead to a huge spike in government borrowing this year. We forecast the deficit to climb to £350 billion (17% of GDP) in 2020–21, more than six times the level forecast just seven months ago at the March Budget. Around two-thirds of this increase comes from the large packages of tax cuts and spending increases that the government has introduced in response to the pandemic. But underlying economic weakness will add close to £100 billion to the deficit this year – 1.7 times the total forecast for the deficit as of March.
I suggest you take these numbers as a broad brush as it will be a long economic journey to April exemplified by that fact that whilst I am typing this it has been announced that London will rise a tier in the UK Covid-19 restrictions from this weekend. I note they think that £250 billion of this is an active response and £100 billion is passive or a form of automatic stabiliser.
They follow the IMF line but with a kicker that it is understandably nervous about these days.
But, in the medium term, getting the public finances back on track will require decisive action from policymakers. The Chancellor should champion a general recognition that, once the economy has been restored to health, a fiscal tightening will follow.
They are much less optimistic than the IMF about the middle of this decade/
Under our central scenario, and assuming none of the temporary giveaways in 2020–21 are continued, borrowing in 2024–25 is forecast to be over £150 billion as a result of lower tax revenues and higher spending through the welfare system.
They do suggest future austerity.
Once the economy has recovered, policy action will be needed to prevent debt from continuing to rise as a share of national income. Even if the government were comfortable with stabilising debt at 100% of national income – its highest level since 1960 – it would still need a fiscal tightening worth 2.1% of national income, or £43 billion in today’s terms.
Comment
As you can see the mood music from the establishment and think tanks has changed somewhat since the early days of the credit crunch.Austerity was en vogue then but now we see that if at all it is a few years ahead. Let me now switch to the elephant in the room which has oiled this and it was my subject of yesterday, where the fall in bond yields means governments can borrow very cheaply and sometimes be paid to do it. That subject is hitting the newswires this morning.
The German 10-year bond yield declined to the lowest level in five months on Wednesday as coronavirus’s resurgence across the Eurozone strengthened the haven demand for the government debt. ( FXStreet)
It is -0.61% as I type this and even the thirty-year yield is now -0.22%. So all new German borrowing is better than free as it provides a return for taxpayers rather than investors. According to Aman Portugal is beginning to enjoy more of this as well.
According to the IGCP, which manages public debt, at the Bloomberg agency, €654 million were auctioned in bonds with a maturity of 17 October 2028 (about eight years) at an interest rate of -0.085%.
Although for our purposes we need to look at longer-term borrowing so the thirty-year issue at 0.47% is more relevant. But in the circumstances that is amazingly cheap.
In essence this is what is different this time around and it is one arm of government helping another as the enormous pile of bonds purchased by central banks continue to grow. The Bank of England bought another £4.4 billion this week. So we have a window where this matters much less than before. It does not mean we can borrow whatever we like it does mean that old levels of debt to GDP such as 90% ( remember it?) and 100% and even 120% are different now.
In the end the game changer is economic growth which in itself posts something of a warning as pre pandemic we had issues with it. Rather awkward that coincides with the QE era doesn’t it as we mull the way it gives with one hand but takes away with another?
UK National Grid
It was only last week I warned about this.
National Grid warns of short supply of electricity over next few days ( The Guardian)
Good job it has not got especially cold yet.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--The city of Seattle has found a new class of victims: Volunteers!

Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan announced yesterday that the city is getting ready to address “ systemic racism.
” It ’ s going to cost the taxpayers only $ 100 MILLION .
Yet given Seattle ’ s hi $ tory with trying to solve their homelessness problem , you know that amount will go up .
The press release is a word salad of progressive lingo : Deep disparities , systemic racism , institutionalized oppression , racial reckoning , climate justice , sustained investments , culturally competent prevention , school to prison pipeline , and so on .
“ The City @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Equitable Communities Initiative Task Force , which will spearhead a community-led process to develop recommendations for a historic $ 100 million new investment in Black , Indigenous , and people of color communities to address the deep disparities caused by systemic racism and institutionalized oppression .
The $ 100 million investment builds on additional city investments and programs .
“ Today , Seattle takes a significant step to recognize and address the generational impacts of systemic racism in our country and city and to build a more just and equitable city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has placed us in a time of a worsening pandemic , an economic crisis , and a racial reckoning .
Still , these unprecedented challenges also impose a moral obligation to act now to create healthy , just , and resilient communities for our Black and Indigenous neighbors and all communities of color , ” said Mayor Jenny A. Durkan .
A diverse group of POC community leaders with deep connections and representing a cross-section of industries including economic development , labor , food justice , education , health care , homelessness , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The task force will determine the scope of their work and lead all community engagement .
The task force will engage with the broader community to prioritize focus areas for investment and make funding recommendations for sustained investments and improved outcomes .
Those areas may include educational and economic opportunity , community wealth building , community wellness , and the Green New Deal.
” Read the whole press release here .
Toward the end of this press release , I found that Seattle has identified another victim group : Volunteers !
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Recognizing that communities of color have often been abused by volunteerism – lending considerable time and expertise to correct systemic problems while not being paid – the City has set aside funds to ensure members are compensated and do not face financial hardship due to participation.
“ When one signs up to volunteer you expect that there will be no financial compensation ; you do it out out of the goodness of your heart .
And it ’ s also done of your own free will .
But of course , progressives find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ systemic racism and institutionalized oppression .
”

by DCG
Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan announced yesterday that the city is getting ready to address “systemic racism.”
It’s going to cost the taxpayers only $100 MILLION. Yet given Seattle’s hi$tory with trying to solve their homelessness problem, you know that amount will go up.
The press release is a word salad of progressive lingo: Deep disparities, systemic racism, institutionalized oppression, racial reckoning, climate justice, sustained investments, culturally competent prevention, school to prison pipeline, and so on.
Excerpts from the mayor’s press release:
“The City of Seattle announced today the initial membership of the Equitable Communities Initiative Task Force, which will spearhead a community-led process to develop recommendations for a historic $100 million new investment in Black, Indigenous, and people of color communities to address the deep disparities caused by systemic racism and institutionalized oppression. The $100 million investment builds on additional city investments and programs.
“Today, Seattle takes a significant step to recognize and address the generational impacts of systemic racism in our country and city and to build a more just and equitable city for the generations to come. History has placed us in a time of a worsening pandemic, an economic crisis, and a racial reckoning. Still, these unprecedented challenges also impose a moral obligation to act now to create healthy, just, and resilient communities for our Black and Indigenous neighbors and all communities of color,” said Mayor Jenny A. Durkan.
A diverse group of POC community leaders with deep connections and representing a cross-section of industries including economic development, labor, food justice, education, health care, homelessness, climate justice, are longtime community leaders. The task force will determine the scope of their work and lead all community engagement.
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The task force will engage with the broader community to prioritize focus areas for investment and make funding recommendations for sustained investments and improved outcomes. Those areas may include educational and economic opportunity, community wealth building, community wellness, and the Green New Deal.”
Read the whole press release here.
Toward the end of this press release, I found that Seattle has identified another victim group: Volunteers!
The last paragraph of the announcement:
“Recognizing that communities of color have often been abused by volunteerism – lending considerable time and expertise to correct systemic problems while not being paid – the City has set aside funds to ensure members are compensated and do not face financial hardship due to participation.“
When one signs up to volunteer you expect that there will be no financial compensation; you do it out out of the goodness of your heart. And it’s also done of your own free will.
But of course, progressives find ANOTHER class of victims due to “systemic racism and institutionalized oppression.”
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--The economic implosion of 2020: Job losses ramp up again as millions of Americans continue to slide

The economic implosion of 2020: Job losses ramp up again as millions of Americans continue to slide into poverty

The mainstream media keeps trying to convince us that things are about to get a whole lot better for the U.S. economy , but instead they just keep getting worse .
On Thursday , we learned that another 898,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week .
That was the highest number that we have seen since August , and it is yet more evidence that a new wave of layoffs has begun .
But according to the experts that the mainstream media relies upon , this wasn ’ t supposed to happen .
According to them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits was supposed to be steadily tapering off as the U.S. economy shifted into recovery mode .
Unfortunately for all of us , those experts have been dead wrong .
Yesterday , I wrote about the decline of the middle class in our country , and here in 2020 this pandemic has greatly accelerated that process .
In fact , one new study has found that almost 8 million more Americans have plunged into poverty just since May… And another study discovered that 6 million more Americans fell into poverty in just the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breaking because of what is going on all over the country right now .
Millions upon millions of hard working people have lost their jobs and can ’ t find new ones .
As a result , they have lost the comfortable middle class lifestyles that they once enjoyed and have now joined the ranks of the poor .
But the official government numbers don ’ t look that bad because millions of those people are not even categorized as “ unemployed ” .
Instead , many of the workers that have lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thrown into a category that is called “ not in the labor force ” .
In order to have faith in the official government numbers , you have got to believe that more than 100 million working age Americans are “ not in the labor force ” because they don ’ t want to work .
It is such a sham .
Why don ’ t we just put every single American that is not working into the “ not in the labor force ” category so that we can have 0.0 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that more Americans are being laid off with each passing day .
Over the past few weeks , some of the most iconic companies in the entire nation have been letting workers go… Some parts of the country have been hit much harder than others by this economic downturn .
For instance , tourism has dried up almost completely in Las Vegas , and this week there have been more layoff announcements… In the end , most of the jobs that have been lost in Las Vegas will never come back until the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not going to be happening for the foreseeable future .
Next door , the state of California has been absolutely devastated by this crisis as well .
If you can believe it , one out of every four Californians received unemployment benefits between March and July .
The state may have more billionaires than anywhere else in the country , but according to the U.S. Census Bureau it also has the highest poverty rate… That means that almost one out of every five people in the entire state of California is living in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what a “ recovery ” looks like , I would hate to see what the “ bad times ” are going to look like .
And without a doubt , economic conditions are definitely going to get worse than they are now .
So many families in California are just barely scraping by from month to month , and more of them are falling into poverty every day .
In fact , even USA Today is admitting that “ California ’ s middle class isn ’ t done shrinking ” … It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that live in California like to lecture the rest of us about “ wealthy inequality ” , but it is worse in their state than anywhere else .
Those at the very , very top of the pyramid are thriving ( for now ) , but meanwhile countless others are falling out of the middle class .
It is like a really perverse game of musical chairs .
Every time the music stops , more people lose their seats and the middle class shrinks some more .
Sadly , I think that this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2021 , and that is really bad news for millions upon millions of middle class American families that are deeply struggling right now .

by Michael Snyder
The mainstream media keeps trying to convince us that things are about to get a whole lot better for the U.S. economy, but instead they just keep getting worse. On Thursday, we learned that another 898,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week. That was the highest number that we have seen since August, and it is yet more evidence that a new wave of layoffs has begun. But according to the experts that the mainstream media relies upon, this wasn’t supposed to happen. According to them, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits was supposed to be steadily tapering off as the U.S. economy shifted into recovery mode. Unfortunately for all of us, those experts have been dead wrong.
Yesterday, I wrote about the decline of the middle class in our country, and here in 2020 this pandemic has greatly accelerated that process.
In fact, one new study has found that almost 8 million more Americans have plunged into poverty just since May…
Nearly 8 million Americans have slid into poverty since May, according to a Columbia University study reported by the New York Times. Why it matters:The researchers found that the monthly poverty rate for September was higher than rates during April or May, and it also topped pre-crisis levels, “[d]ue to the expiration of the CARES Act’s stimulus checks and $600 per week supplement to unemployment benefits.”
And another study discovered that 6 million more Americans fell into poverty in just the last three months…
A separate study by researchers at Notre Dame and the University of Chicago, found that 6 million people have slipped into poverty in the last three months, per the Times.
Our hearts should be breaking because of what is going on all over the country right now.
Millions upon millions of hard working people have lost their jobs and can’t find new ones. As a result, they have lost the comfortable middle class lifestyles that they once enjoyed and have now joined the ranks of the poor.
But the official government numbers don’t look that bad because millions of those people are not even categorized as “unemployed”. Instead, many of the workers that have lost their jobs during this pandemic have been thrown into a category that is called “not in the labor force”.
In order to have faith in the official government numbers, you have got to believe that more than 100 million working age Americans are “not in the labor force” because they don’t want to work.
It is such a sham. Why don’t we just put every single American that is not working into the “not in the labor force” category so that we can have 0.0 percent unemployment?
Wouldn’t that be wonderful?
Of course the truth is that more Americans are being laid off with each passing day. Over the past few weeks, some of the most iconic companies in the entire nation have been letting workers go…
Further, companies have begun initiating layoffs on a trajectory similar to traditional recessions, economists said, as slowdowns in consumer demand (rather than state-mandated shutdowns) lead them to cut jobs or close for good. Companies such as Allstate, American Airlines, Disney, Royal Dutch Shell and United Airlines have each announced plans to cut thousands of workers in recent weeks.
Some parts of the country have been hit much harder than others by this economic downturn.
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For instance, tourism has dried up almost completely in Las Vegas, and this week there have been more layoff announcements…
The Tropicana Las Vegas has given notice to 828 employees that they are being laid off beginning Thursday, Oct. 15. And layoffs at two Paris Las Vegas restaurants are coming soon as notices have been filed with the state. Mon Ami Gabi intends to lay off 96 employees, and the Eiffel Tower Restaurant will lay off 53 employees. Both moves are scheduled to happen on Dec. 16, and the layoffs will be permanent.
In the end, most of the jobs that have been lost in Las Vegas will never come back until the tourists return, and that is simply not going to be happening for the foreseeable future.
Next door, the state of California has been absolutely devastated by this crisis as well.
If you can believe it, one out of every four Californians received unemployment benefits between March and July. The state may have more billionaires than anywhere else in the country, but according to the U.S. Census Bureau it also has the highest poverty rate…
Home to 166 billionaires, who made over $235 billion since the beginning of the pandemic, the Golden State also has the highest poverty rate: 17.2% when adjusted for the cost of living, according to a recent Census Bureau analysis.
That means that almost one out of every five people in the entire state of California is living in poverty right now.
If this is what a “recovery” looks like, I would hate to see what the “bad times” are going to look like.
And without a doubt, economic conditions are definitely going to get worse than they are now.
So many families in California are just barely scraping by from month to month, and more of them are falling into poverty every day. In fact, even USA Today is admitting that “California’s middle class isn’t done shrinking”…
To many, the streets of the Bay Area are renowned for the enduring homelessness crisis as much as for the renowned tech giants of Silicon Valley. In-between, California’s middle class isn’t done shrinking; teachers, artists, waiters and gig workers are awaiting their fate, often one government program away from having to take a minimum-wage job — or lose their homes.
It is kind of ironic. Many of those that live in California like to lecture the rest of us about “wealthy inequality”, but it is worse in their state than anywhere else.
Those at the very, very top of the pyramid are thriving (for now), but meanwhile countless others are falling out of the middle class.
It is like a really perverse game of musical chairs. Every time the music stops, more people lose their seats and the middle class shrinks some more.
Sadly, I think that this process is going to accelerate even more in 2021, and that is really bad news for millions upon millions of middle class American families that are deeply struggling right now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--Freddie Mac 30Y Rate Hits All-time Low of 2.81% (5/1 ARM Rate At 2.9%)

Chubby Checker would be proud !
How low can we go ?
Freddie Mac just reported that the 30-yr fixed-rate @ @ @ @ @ all-time low of 2.81 % .
Even lower that the 5/1 ARM rate of 2.9 @ @ @ @ @ start to celebrate … M2 Money volatility is at its lowest EVER .
I still @ @ @ @ @ I used to play golf with these butter knives posing as irons .
I just @ @ @ @ @ ball .

by confoundedinterest17
Chubby Checker would be proud! How low can we go?
Freddie Mac just reported that the 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage rate just hit an all-time low of 2.81%. Even lower that the 5/1 ARM rate of 2.9%.
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But before you start to celebrate … M2 Money volatility is at its lowest EVER.
I still can’t believe that I used to play golf with these butter knives posing as irons. I just liked the bird on the ball.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-16--A Biden Presidency Could End The U.S. Oil Boom

To talk about a Biden-Harris administration let ’ s first talk about the Obama-Eric Holder/Loretta Lynch administration .
Back in 2015 and 2016 , when Holder and Lynch were President Obama ’ s Attorney Generals , my frack company was beset with an IRS audit , an International Fuel Tax ( “ IFTA ” ) audit and a Department of Labor investigation .
Not to be excluded , I was also personally audited by the IRS .
Fortunately , me and my company cleared the IRS audits without penalty ( other than paying our accountant ) .
The Department of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than $ 250 , based on some arcane back of the book calculation on arbitrarily given bonuses .
But the IFTA audit did some damage with a $ 40,000 paperwork related fine even though all our taxes were paid at the pump .
All three agencies and all four audits were federal , and all came at roughly the same time .
When I asked the Department of Labor attorney how she even found our little basement office , she kept mum .
There was no point in her answering—we both knew why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ department , like the IRS and IFTA , had been weaponized to undermine the oil and gas industry .
AGs Holder and Lynch , likely with President Obama ’ s blessing , were picking and choosing and me and my industry got picked .
On March 1st , in 2016 , I came home from work and told my wife I was worried about Aubrey McClendon , the founder of Chesapeake Energy and American Energy Partners .
The following morning , he was to be arraigned in Oklahoma for violations of the Sherman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emailed each other a few times over the previous weeks and I meant to send him a message of support but never got to it .
Kids and dinner and school projects got in the way .
The following morning , on his way to the arraignment , Aubrey was instantly killed when the SUV he was driving hit a concrete bridge abutment at a high rate of speed .
Whether or not it was an accident or suicide , I don ’ t know .
Either way it was just horrible .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is at peace , but I am not .
Attorney Generals Holder and Lynch , in their zeal to disrupt the American oil and gas engine , set their sights on McClendon and dusted off some old claptrap , the Sherman Act .
Never mind that no one had been convicted under its laws since the 1930 ’ s , or that McClendon was infamous for driving lease prices up , not down , by conspiring with competitors .
This was just a witch-hunt , a word we have become all too familiar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the unprecedented attacks that have come along with it .
McClendon ’ s sin was being incredibly effective at deploying fracking to free up natural gas .
He was a risk taker and that put him and his investors at risk , but to our federal government he was the face of fracking , and that made him a target of convenience for Obama ’ s AGs .
Oddly , during the 2012 State of the Union , President Obama stated that he supported fracking – “ We have a supply of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100 years…and my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy.
” That was what was said , not what was done .
Under his watch the resistance was born .
Study after study of the Keystone and Dakota Pipeline projects were commissioned with the hope that one would finally yield the predetermined answer of “ no.
” Activist federal judges ruled in favor of lawsuits stopping natural gas pipelines from crossing federal waters .
Discredited and now forgotten Josh Fox ’ s anti-fracking documentaries were accepted as the gospel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So much glowing press until he was debunked and no one bothered to cover that .
In general , the industry was tarred and feathered in a groundswell of animosity directed at the people keeping the lights on .
Now , we have Vice President Biden saying he supports fracking when he swings through natural gas rich Pennsylvania , but we all know that is just politicking .
His previous anti-fracking statements , all of them inconveniently caught on imperishable video tape , suggest some double speak here .
So where does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That depends on who he ’ s talking to .
In the old days they called it “ waffling ” and it was a disqualifier .
Not so any longer .
If there is any sort of pushback , the 2020 method is to simply just deny that you have multiple positions on the same subject .
When no one pushes back , why not ?
They call Joe a fair-minded moderate , a congenial and thoughtful friend to both sides of an argument .
I ’ m sorry , I just don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t choose a San Francisco prosecutor with an anti-fossil fuel record as a running mate .
A moderate also wouldn ’ t choose socialist New York Congresswoman Ocasio – Cortez to co-chair his climate task force .
During the recent Harris-Pence debate , Ms. Ocasio-Cortez Tweeted “ Fracking is bad , actually ” .
So , I guess we at least know where she stands , a breath of fresh air given the chicanery of the Biden-Harris oil and gas platform .
Now rumors of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported .
True or not , it knocks the wind out of the rest of that moderate argument .
Remember , Governor Cuomo was the guy who ordered his own state regulators to study the health and safety of fracking .
When their study qualified fracking as environmentally safe , Mr. Cuomo outlawed it anyways .
So much for open minded moderation , Mr. Biden .
These aren ’ t “ across the aisle ” sorts of people that Biden ’ s handlers would want you to believe are open minded to US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t choose vehemently anti oil and gas lightning rods as successors , advisors and top cops .
In a recent Rasmussen Reports poll , 59 % of respondents didn ’ t think Joe Biden would serve-out a full four-year term due to health-related issues .
That would leave us with Senator Harris as president .
And where exactly would that leave us ?
I would argue , uncertain at best .
When President Trump won the 2016 presidential election , the oil and gas industry immediately turned on after a punishing two-year downturn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t rise as a result of his victory , but business confidence did .
Operators teed up new drills and completions and service companies like mine were immediately called back to work .
We finally had an administration that was supportive of extraction rather than vaguely duplicitous about it .
Four years later , having a new Commander and Chief who is well known as anti-fracking isn ’ t going to do much for industry confidence .
Investment will dwindle , jobs will be lost and the environment will suffer .
Natural gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considerable drop in CO2 emissions in US air over the last decade .
Fueling these plants is the gas from fractured horizontal shale .
Stop fracking and natural gas stops flowing—right away .
Should a Biden presidency prevail in the upcoming elections , my own experience tells me that our oil and gas industry will be facing regulatory headwinds that will far exceed the blow back I personally faced during President Obama ’ s time in office .
As the owner of a frack company , this has me worried .
We want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I don ’ t at all want to give up .
Instead , I ’ ve considered giving in .
In fact , I spent a considerable amount of time during the slow days of the Covid pandemic researching renewables as a means to offset possible declines in oil and gas activities .
We are an energy company so why not consider all things energy ?
Wind was my first thought as I live on the Great Lakes and wind over water is every bit as good as an oil and gas lease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels .
But wind is a NIMBY issue .
The very people that demand it are also staunchly aligned against it when it lands in their own backyards—see Massachusetts Bay .
That and the cost of windmills—far beyond my limited means—turned me to solar .
You can scale solar , maybe not cost effectively , but phasing it in was my plan so I began casting about for advice .
An acquaintance in a nearby state had participated in a solar farm on a brown field—as has become a good and common though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did not include a battery bank installation , allowing storage and passive use , but it was still expensive , about $ 20 million all in to permit and build it out .
Of that cost , his state picked up a third , the federal government covered a third and his group added the last third in straight equity , though they ended up being a 100 % owner .
Now that his project is up and running , his group will also benefit from better rates for renewables vis a vie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I ’ m in favor of renewables being in the energy mix but this is not an “ economic ” project .
Should a Biden-Harris administration start to restrict oil and gas development , sound reasoning says energy prices will rise and then , at that time , a move into solar may make sense .
Because I have to answer to my banks and my employees , I didn ’ t see how I could participate in solar in a way that would cover my bills .
Maybe someday , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , particularly in the Northeast .
Just like all the current credits , though , the renewables buildout will be built on the backs of consumers through higher taxes , public debt and much higher energy costs—all three of which are disqualifiers for me .
Curtailing our oil and gas production won ’ t be immediately covered by renewables .
That ’ s impossible .
It would take decades .
Instead , what will happen will be the opposite of the intent ( as is typical with bad policy ) .
The US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavy and highly polluting tar oils from Canada and sulfur-rich grades from the Middle East Gulf States or from Mexico , and maybe even from socialist Venezuela .
That ’ s really too bad because shale oil is light and low in sulfur and is clean compared to most other grades of oil .
Gone too would be the enormous gains our industry has provided in terms of national security .
We don ’ t have to go begging to despots , dictators and bad guys anymore .
Kill oil and gas and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the same policy that got us into wars .
We have our own energy now .
We are no longer desperate for anyone else ’ s .
America is finally energy independent .
Granted , this is a squishy phrase as we ’ re short on oil but far , far ahead in natural gas .
But on a BTU basis we are there and then some .
This has been a wish in the making for decades and decades yet suddenly , over the last few years , a movement has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scandalous privilege , a raping of the earth that must be undone .
Equally baffling is a major candidate , one-half of a bifurcated democracy , is supportive of it .
Equally puzzling in the rush to embrace green energy is the fact that there has been so little regard for embracing the truth .
Look into the waste stream of battery production and disposal .
It is as dirty as any old school oil and gas project , only more so .
Look into nickel smelting and lithium mining .
Look up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acid rain .
All these inconvenient truths have been brushed aside as irrelevant , or simply covered up , in the name of progressive energy policies .
People need to know that there is no panacea , that everything has an environmental cost , even renewables .
But somehow the truth doesn ’ t make it into the anti-frack argument .
Should a Biden-Harris presidency act to derail our unprecedented efforts , we ’ d be giving up all our gains , including environmental gains for nothing in return .
Why ?
Shale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A shift in public policy will quickly stop the flow of private money needed to maintain and grow production .
America will quickly fade away into brownouts .
A disproportionate burden will fall on working men and women and the poor .
And trillions of dollars will be spent on negative returns .
Good public policy would be geared towards conservation which can be turned on like a light switch .
To my knowledge not a single green hero has been made out of advocating for better door and window seals , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or keeping those car tires at 32 psi .
Expect the obscuring of the truth and duplicity to continue .
A Biden-Harris administration will continue to claim they ’ re for fracking—except on public lands—where 300,000 oil and gas jobs are at risk along with oil production equaling roughly one million bbls/day per the Department of the Interior .
We probably won ’ t hear much about rare earth minerals—essential to solar panel production—and the fact that the market for them is 70 % supplied by China .
In fact , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any indication , we likely won ’ t know what exactly their policy is until it is written into law or mandated on day one by executive order .
Lawsuits will abound and there will be much gnashing of teeth .
But through permit delays , studies and regulatory measures , this administration could claim they are only being thorough while the intent all along was to see us wither and someday be blown away by one of those idle windmills I keep driving past .

By Dan Doyle
To talk about a Biden-Harris administration let’s first talk about the Obama-Eric Holder/Loretta Lynch administration. Back in 2015 and 2016, when Holder and Lynch were President Obama’s Attorney Generals, my frack company was beset with an IRS audit, an International Fuel Tax (“IFTA”) audit and a Department of Labor investigation. Not to be excluded, I was also personally audited by the IRS. Fortunately, me and my company cleared the IRS audits without penalty (other than paying our accountant). The Department of Labor audit got us for something less than $250, based on some arcane back of the book calculation on arbitrarily given bonuses. But the IFTA audit did some damage with a $40,000 paperwork related fine even though all our taxes were paid at the pump. All three agencies and all four audits were federal, and all came at roughly the same time. When I asked the Department of Labor attorney how she even found our little basement office, she kept mum. There was no point in her answering—we both knew why she was there. Her 18,000-employee strong department, like the IRS and IFTA, had been weaponized to undermine the oil and gas industry. AGs Holder and Lynch, likely with President Obama’s blessing, were picking and choosing and me and my industry got picked.
On March 1st, in 2016, I came home from work and told my wife I was worried about Aubrey McClendon, the founder of Chesapeake Energy and American Energy Partners. The following morning, he was to be arraigned in Oklahoma for violations of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act. Aubrey and I had emailed each other a few times over the previous weeks and I meant to send him a message of support but never got to it. Kids and dinner and school projects got in the way. The following morning, on his way to the arraignment, Aubrey was instantly killed when the SUV he was driving hit a concrete bridge abutment at a high rate of speed. Whether or not it was an accident or suicide, I don’t know. Either way it was just horrible. Now I can only hope his family is at peace, but I am not. Attorney Generals Holder and Lynch, in their zeal to disrupt the American oil and gas engine, set their sights on McClendon and dusted off some old claptrap, the Sherman Act. Never mind that no one had been convicted under its laws since the 1930’s, or that McClendon was infamous for driving lease prices up, not down, by conspiring with competitors. This was just a witch-hunt, a word we have become all too familiar with since the more recent Trump administration and the unprecedented attacks that have come along with it. McClendon’s sin was being incredibly effective at deploying fracking to free up natural gas. He was a risk taker and that put him and his investors at risk, but to our federal government he was the face of fracking, and that made him a target of convenience for Obama’s AGs.
Oddly, during the 2012 State of the Union, President Obama stated that he supported fracking – “We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years…and my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy.” That was what was said, not what was done. Under his watch the resistance was born. Study after study of the Keystone and Dakota Pipeline projects were commissioned with the hope that one would finally yield the predetermined answer of “no.” Activist federal judges ruled in favor of lawsuits stopping natural gas pipelines from crossing federal waters. Discredited and now forgotten Josh Fox’s anti-fracking documentaries were accepted as the gospel truth even though his truth was manufactured. So much glowing press until he was debunked and no one bothered to cover that. In general, the industry was tarred and feathered in a groundswell of animosity directed at the people keeping the lights on.
Now, we have Vice President Biden saying he supports fracking when he swings through natural gas rich Pennsylvania, but we all know that is just politicking. His previous anti-fracking statements, all of them inconveniently caught on imperishable video tape, suggest some double speak here.
So where does Joe Biden truthfully stand on fracking? That depends on who he’s talking to. In the old days they called it “waffling” and it was a disqualifier. Not so any longer. If there is any sort of pushback, the 2020 method is to simply just deny that you have multiple positions on the same subject. When no one pushes back, why not? They call Joe a fair-minded moderate, a congenial and thoughtful friend to both sides of an argument. I’m sorry, I just don’t see it. A moderate doesn’t choose a San Francisco prosecutor with an anti-fossil fuel record as a running mate. A moderate also wouldn’t choose socialist New York Congresswoman Ocasio – Cortez to co-chair his climate task force. During the recent Harris-Pence debate, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez Tweeted “Fracking is bad, actually”. So, I guess we at least know where she stands, a breath of fresh air given the chicanery of the Biden-Harris oil and gas platform. Now rumors of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo as a Biden administration Attorney General are being reported. True or not, it knocks the wind out of the rest of that moderate argument. Remember, Governor Cuomo was the guy who ordered his own state regulators to study the health and safety of fracking. When their study qualified fracking as environmentally safe, Mr. Cuomo outlawed it anyways. So much for open minded moderation, Mr. Biden. These aren’t “across the aisle” sorts of people that Biden’s handlers would want you to believe are open minded to US Energy Policy. Moderates simply don’t choose vehemently anti oil and gas lightning rods as successors, advisors and top cops.
In a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, 59% of respondents didn’t think Joe Biden would serve-out a full four-year term due to health-related issues. That would leave us with Senator Harris as president. And where exactly would that leave us? I would argue, uncertain at best. When President Trump won the 2016 presidential election, the oil and gas industry immediately turned on after a punishing two-year downturn. Oil and gas prices didn’t rise as a result of his victory, but business confidence did. Operators teed up new drills and completions and service companies like mine were immediately called back to work. We finally had an administration that was supportive of extraction rather than vaguely duplicitous about it. Four years later, having a new Commander and Chief who is well known as anti-fracking isn’t going to do much for industry confidence. Investment will dwindle, jobs will be lost and the environment will suffer. Natural gas power plants are the reason for the considerable drop in CO2 emissions in US air over the last decade. Fueling these plants is the gas from fractured horizontal shale. Stop fracking and natural gas stops flowing—right away.
Should a Biden presidency prevail in the upcoming elections, my own experience tells me that our oil and gas industry will be facing regulatory headwinds that will far exceed the blow back I personally faced during President Obama’s time in office. As the owner of a frack company, this has me worried. We want to continue to grow and prosper so I don’t at all want to give up. Instead, I’ve considered giving in. In fact, I spent a considerable amount of time during the slow days of the Covid pandemic researching renewables as a means to offset possible declines in oil and gas activities. We are an energy company so why not consider all things energy?
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Wind was my first thought as I live on the Great Lakes and wind over water is every bit as good as an oil and gas lease with good porosity and rich oil saturation levels. But wind is a NIMBY issue. The very people that demand it are also staunchly aligned against it when it lands in their own backyards—see Massachusetts Bay. That and the cost of windmills—far beyond my limited means—turned me to solar. You can scale solar, maybe not cost effectively, but phasing it in was my plan so I began casting about for advice. An acquaintance in a nearby state had participated in a solar farm on a brown field—as has become a good and common though heavy on regulation practice. His group did not include a battery bank installation, allowing storage and passive use, but it was still expensive, about $20 million all in to permit and build it out. Of that cost, his state picked up a third, the federal government covered a third and his group added the last third in straight equity, though they ended up being a 100% owner. Now that his project is up and running, his group will also benefit from better rates for renewables vis a vie consumer choice and a production tax credit. I’m in favor of renewables being in the energy mix but this is not an “economic” project. Should a Biden-Harris administration start to restrict oil and gas development, sound reasoning says energy prices will rise and then, at that time, a move into solar may make sense. Because I have to answer to my banks and my employees, I didn’t see how I could participate in solar in a way that would cover my bills. Maybe someday, but not until solar stands on its own, particularly in the Northeast. Just like all the current credits, though, the renewables buildout will be built on the backs of consumers through higher taxes, public debt and much higher energy costs—all three of which are disqualifiers for me.
Curtailing our oil and gas production won’t be immediately covered by renewables. That’s impossible. It would take decades. Instead, what will happen will be the opposite of the intent (as is typical with bad policy). The US would be forced to infill shortages with heavy and highly polluting tar oils from Canada and sulfur-rich grades from the Middle East Gulf States or from Mexico, and maybe even from socialist Venezuela. That’s really too bad because shale oil is light and low in sulfur and is clean compared to most other grades of oil. Gone too would be the enormous gains our industry has provided in terms of national security. We don’t have to go begging to despots, dictators and bad guys anymore. Kill oil and gas and we’ll be beholden once again to the same policy that got us into wars. We have our own energy now. We are no longer desperate for anyone else’s.
America is finally energy independent. Granted, this is a squishy phrase as we’re short on oil but far, far ahead in natural gas. But on a BTU basis we are there and then some. This has been a wish in the making for decades and decades yet suddenly, over the last few years, a movement has emerged that finds this abhorrent, a scandalous privilege, a raping of the earth that must be undone. Equally baffling is a major candidate, one-half of a bifurcated democracy, is supportive of it.
Equally puzzling in the rush to embrace green energy is the fact that there has been so little regard for embracing the truth. Look into the waste stream of battery production and disposal. It is as dirty as any old school oil and gas project, only more so. Look into nickel smelting and lithium mining. Look up Sudbury, Canada’s superstacks and acid rain. All these inconvenient truths have been brushed aside as irrelevant, or simply covered up, in the name of progressive energy policies. People need to know that there is no panacea, that everything has an environmental cost, even renewables. But somehow the truth doesn’t make it into the anti-frack argument.
Should a Biden-Harris presidency act to derail our unprecedented efforts, we’d be giving up all our gains, including environmental gains for nothing in return. Why? Shale is a treadmill that requires constant investment. A shift in public policy will quickly stop the flow of private money needed to maintain and grow production. America will quickly fade away into brownouts. A disproportionate burden will fall on working men and women and the poor. And trillions of dollars will be spent on negative returns. Good public policy would be geared towards conservation which can be turned on like a light switch. To my knowledge not a single green hero has been made out of advocating for better door and window seals, or insulating attics with R 30 insulation, or keeping those car tires at 32 psi.
Expect the obscuring of the truth and duplicity to continue. A Biden-Harris administration will continue to claim they’re for fracking—except on public lands—where 300,000 oil and gas jobs are at risk along with oil production equaling roughly one million bbls/day per the Department of the Interior. We probably won’t hear much about rare earth minerals—essential to solar panel production—and the fact that the market for them is 70% supplied by China. In fact, if the two-way position of their campaign is any indication, we likely won’t know what exactly their policy is until it is written into law or mandated on day one by executive order. Lawsuits will abound and there will be much gnashing of teeth. But through permit delays, studies and regulatory measures, this administration could claim they are only being thorough while the intent all along was to see us wither and someday be blown away by one of those idle windmills I keep driving past.
By Dan Doyle for Oilprice.com