investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--The Bank of England sets interest-rates for the banks and QE to keep debt costs low

This morning has seen a change to Bank of England practice which is a welcome one .
It announced its policy decisions at 7 am rather than the usual midday .
Why is that better ?
It is because it voted last night so cutting the time between voting and announcing the result reduces the risk of it leaking and creating an Early Wire .
The previous Governor Mark Carney preferred to have plenty of time to dot his i ’ s and cross his t ’ s at the expense of a clear market risk .
If it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to the old system where the vote was a mere 45 minutes before the announcement to reduce the risk of it leaking .
After all the Bank of England has proved to be a much more leaky vessel than it should be .
We got further confirmation that the Bank of England considers 0.1 % to be the Lower Bound for official UK interest-rates .
That is in their terms quite a critique of the UK banking system as I note the Norges Bank of Norway has cut to 0 % this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative interest-rates ( we know what that means ) and of course the ECB has a deposit rate of -0.5 % although to keep that it has had to offer Euro area banks a bung ( TLTRO ) at -1 % Next comes an area where action was more likely and as I will explain we did get a hint of some .
The two who voted for “ More !
More !
More !
” were Jonathan Haskel and Michael Saunders .
The latter was calling for higher interest-rates not so long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the swing voter who rushes to vote for whatever is right in front of his nose .
Anyway I suspect it is moot as I expect them all to sing along with Andrea True Connection in the end .
What do they expect ?
The opening salvo is both grim and relatively good .
A factor in that will be that the UK went into its version of lockdown later than many others .
But then the hammer falls .
As you can see GDP dived faster than any submarine But fear not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will bounce like Zebedee .
Is it rude to point out that it has been some time since we grew by 3 % in a year ?
If so it is perhaps even ruder to point out that it is double the speed limit for economic growth that the Bank of England keeps telling us now exists .
I guess they are hoping nobody spots that .
Anyway to be fair they call this an illustrative scenario although they must be aware it will be reported like this .
In a way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Let us start with the simple .
So for an inflation targeting central bank ( please stay with me on this one for the moment ) things are simple .
Should the Governor have to write to the Chancellor he can say he has cut interest-rates to record lows and pumped up the volume of QE .
The Chancellor will offer a sigh of relief that the Bank of England is implicitly funding his spending and try to write a letter avoiding mentioning that .
However things are more complex as this sentence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifting as I note this from the Office for National Statistics .
There is their usual obsession with the otherwise widely ignored CPIH , But as you can see there are issues for the targeted measure CPI as well and they will be larger as it does not have imputed rents in it .
A rough and ready calculation suggests it will be of the order of 20 % .
Also a downwards bias will be introduced by the way prices will be checked online which will mean that more expensive places such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Also I am not surprised the Bank of England does not think this is material as the absent-minded professor Ben Broadbent is the Deputy Governor is in charge of this area but I do .
Perhaps they will introduce imputed rents via the back door which is a bit sooner than 2030 !
Also the point below is rather technical but is a theme where things turn out to be different from what we are told ( it is annual ) so I will look into it .
That sort of thing popped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when it turned out that they are ( roughly ) last year ’ s rather than the ones for now .
There are three clear issues here .
Firstly as we are struggling to even measure inflation the idea of inflation-targeting is pretty much a farce .
That poses its own problems for GDP measurement .
Such as we have is far from ideal .
As to Bank of England activity let me remind you of a scheme which favours larger businesses as usual .
I wonder if Apple and Maersk are on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bonds ?
By the way that means that their running totals have been wrong .
As to conventional QE that is plainly targeted at keeping Gilt yields very low ( the fifty-year is 0.37 % ) Let me finish by pointing out we have a 0.1 % interest-rate because it is all the banks can stand rather than it being good for you , me or indeed the wider business sector .
Oh did I mention the banks ?

by Shaun Richards
This morning has seen a change to Bank of England practice which is a welcome one. It announced its policy decisions at 7 am rather than the usual midday. Why is that better? It is because it voted last night so cutting the time between voting and announcing the result reduces the risk of it leaking and creating an Early Wire. The previous Governor Mark Carney preferred to have plenty of time to dot his i’s and cross his t’s at the expense of a clear market risk. If it was left to me I would dully go back to the old system where the vote was a mere 45 minutes before the announcement to reduce the risk of it leaking. After all the Bank of England has proved to be a much more leaky vessel than it should be.
Actions
We got further confirmation that the Bank of England considers 0.1% to be the Lower Bound for official UK interest-rates.
At its meeting ending on 6 May 2020, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%.
That is in their terms quite a critique of the UK banking system as I note the Norges Bank of Norway has cut to 0% this morning and denied it will cut to negative interest-rates ( we know what that means) and of course the ECB has a deposit rate of -0.5% although to keep that it has had to offer Euro area banks a bung ( TLTRO) at -1%
Next comes an area where action was more likely and as I will explain we did get a hint of some.
The Committee voted by a majority of 7-2
for the Bank of England to continue with the programme of £200 billion of UK government bond and sterling
non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, to
take the total stock of these purchases to £645 billion. Two members preferred to increase the target for the
stock of asset purchases by an additional £100 billion at this meeting.
The two who voted for “More! More! More!” were Jonathan Haskel and Michael Saunders. The latter was calling for higher interest-rates not so long ago so he has established himself as the swing voter who rushes to vote for whatever is right in front of his nose. Anyway I suspect it is moot as I expect them all to sing along with Andrea True Connection in the end.
(More, more, more) how do you like it, how do you like it
(More, more, more) how do you like it, how do you like it
What do they expect?
The opening salvo is both grim and relatively good.
The 2020 Q1 estimate of a fall in GDP of around 3% had been informed by a wide range of high-frequency indicators, as set out in the May Monetary Policy Report.
A factor in that will be that the UK went into its version of lockdown later than many others. But then the hammer falls.
The illustrative scenario in the May Report incorporated a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 H1 and a
substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who were furloughed currently. UK GDP was
expected to fall by around 25% in Q2, and the unemployment rate was expected to rise to around 9%. There were large uncertainty bands around these estimates.
As you can see GDP dived faster than any submarine But fear not as according to the Bank of England it will bounce like Zebedee.
UK GDP in the scenario falls by 14% in 2020 as a whole. Activity picks up materially in the latter part of 2020 and into 2021 after social distancing measures are relaxed, although it does not reach its pre‑Covid level until the second half of 2021 . In 2022, GDP growth is around 3%. Annual household consumption growth follows a similar
pattern.
Is it rude to point out that it has been some time since we grew by 3% in a year? If so it is perhaps even ruder to point out that it is double the speed limit for economic growth that the Bank of England keeps telling us now exists. I guess they are hoping nobody spots that.
Anyway to be fair they call this an illustrative scenario although they must be aware it will be reported like this.
NEW: UK GDP set for ‘dramatic’ 14% drop in 2020 amid coronavirus shutdown, Bank of England predicts ( @politicshome )
Inflation Problems
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In a way this is both simple and complicated. Let us start with the simple.
CPI inflation had declined to 1.5% in March and was likely to fall below 1% in the next few months, in large
part reflecting developments in energy prices. This would require an exchange of letters between the Governor
and the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
So for an inflation targeting central bank ( please stay with me on this one for the moment) things are simple. Should the Governor have to write to the Chancellor he can say he has cut interest-rates to record lows and pumped up the volume of QE. The Chancellor will offer a sigh of relief that the Bank of England is implicitly funding his spending and try to write a letter avoiding mentioning that.
However things are more complex as this sentence hints.
Measurement challenges would temporarily increase the noise in the inflation data, and affect the nature and behaviour of the index relative to a normal period.
It is doing some heavy lifting as I note this from the Office for National Statistics.
There are 92 items in our basket of goods and services that we have identified as unavailable for the April 2020 index (see Annex B), which accounts for 16.3% of the CPIH basket by weight. The list of unavailable items will be reviewed on a monthly basis.
There is their usual obsession with the otherwise widely ignored CPIH, But as you can see there are issues for the targeted measure CPI as well and they will be larger as it does not have imputed rents in it. A rough and ready calculation suggests it will be of the order of 20%. Also a downwards bias will be introduced by the way prices will be checked online which will mean that more expensive places such as corner shops will be excluded.
Also I am not surprised the Bank of England does not think this is material as the absent-minded professor Ben Broadbent is the Deputy Governor is in charge of this area but I do.
The ONS and the joint producers have taken the decision to temporarily suspend the UK House Price Index (HPI) publication from the April 2020 index (due to be released 17 June 2020) until further notice……..The UK HPI is used to calculate several of the owner occupiers’ housing costs components of the RPI. The procedures described in this plan apply to those components of the RPI that are based on the suspended UK HPI data.
Perhaps they will introduce imputed rents via the back door which is a bit sooner than 2030! Also the point below is rather technical but is a theme where things turn out to be different from what we are told ( it is annual) so I will look into it.
Unfortunately, since weights are lagged by two years, we would see no effect until we calculate the 2022 weights1. This means that the current weights are not likely to be reflective of current expenditure and that the 2022 weights are unlikely to be reflective of 2022 expenditure.
That sort of thing popped up on the debate about imputed rents when it turned out that they are (roughly) last year’s rather than the ones for now.
Comment
There are three clear issues here. Firstly as we are struggling to even measure inflation the idea of inflation-targeting is pretty much a farce. That poses its own problems for GDP measurement. Such as we have is far from ideal.
The all HDP items index show a stable increase over time, with an increase of 1.1% between Week 1 and Week 7. The index of all food has seen no price change from Week 5 to Week 7, resulting in a 1.2% price increase since Week 1.
As to Bank of England activity let me remind you of a scheme which favours larger businesses as usual.
As of 6 May, the Covid Corporate Financing Facility
(CCFF), for which the Bank was acting as HM Treasury’s agent, had purchased £17.7 billion of commercial
paper from companies who were making a material contribution to the UK economy.
I wonder if Apple and Maersk are on the list like they are for Corporate Bonds?
Within that increase, £81 billion of UK government bonds,
and £2.5 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds, had been purchased over recent weeks.
By the way that means that their running totals have been wrong. As to conventional QE that is plainly targeted at keeping Gilt yields very low ( the fifty-year is 0.37%)
Let me finish by pointing out we have a 0.1% interest-rate because it is all the banks can stand rather than it being good for you,me or indeed the wider business sector. Oh did I mention the banks?
As of 6 May, participants had drawn £11 billion from the TFSME


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Protests not allowed during pandemic, say NYC mayor and police commissioner

After a news conference by LGBTQ activists critical of Mount Sinai Hospital ’ s relationship with a religious organization during @ @ @ @ @ city ’ s police commissioner and the mayor said “ protests ” would not be @ @ @ @ @ activists with the Reclaim Pride organization took to First Avenue in Manhattan outside the hospital @ @ @ @ @ Sunday slamming Samaritan ’ s Purse for being allowed to set up a field hospital @ @ @ @ @ officers showed up and forced the crowd to disperse .
Reporters , who were allow @ @ @ @ @ social distancing rules were being followed at the event .

After a news conference by LGBTQ activists critical of Mount Sinai Hospital’s relationship with a religious organization during the coronavirus pandemic, the city’s police commissioner and the mayor said “protests” would not be tolerated.
About a dozen activists with the Reclaim Pride organization took to First Avenue in Manhattan outside the hospital to hold a news conference Sunday slamming Samaritan’s Purse for being allowed to set up a field hospital.
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About two dozen police officers showed up and forced the crowd to disperse. Reporters, who were allow told to leave, said social distancing rules were being followed at the event.
www.fox5ny.com/news/protests-not-allowed-during-pandemic-say-nyc-mayor-and-police-commissioner


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--This 9-year-old with COVID-19 has had a fever 52 days

While children have died from the coronavirus disease in the United States , less than 1 % of Georgia ’ s overall COVID-19 cases have happened in people under age 12 .
Though children are usually spared harsh symptoms of the disease , 15 children in New York City are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 associated multi-system inflammatory syndrome .
One of the reported symptoms is prolonged fever , which a Georgia girl is also complaining about .
Jeannie Johnson says her 9-year-old daughter , Kira , is on her 52nd consecutive day of fever as of Tuesday , May 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fever and started wheezing , but doctors said the girl ’ s symptoms did not warrant testing for COVID-19 .
That was about the same time a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine reported that children made up less than 1 % of COVID-19 cases in China .
As of March 8 , the study said , a 10-month-old had died of the disease .
That child had bowel blockage and multi-organ failure and died four weeks after admission to the hospital .
The first infant death in the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Illinois Department of Public Health reported on March 28 .
She has underlying mitochondrial and metabolic medical conditions , her mother said .
“ So , we have to be really conscious of her energy expenditure , ” Jeannie Johnson said .
“ So fighting the fever has been tricky .
She also has epilepsy .
”

While children have died from the coronavirus disease in the United States, less than 1 % of Georgia’s overall COVID-19 cases have happened in people under age 12.
Though children are usually spared harsh symptoms of the disease, 15 children in New York City are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 associated multi-system inflammatory syndrome. One of the reported symptoms is prolonged fever, which a Georgia girl is also complaining about.
Jeannie Johnson says her 9-year-old daughter, Kira, is on her 52nd consecutive day of fever as of Tuesday, May 5.
In mid-March, Kira developed a fever and started wheezing, but doctors said the girl’s symptoms did not warrant testing for COVID-19.
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That was about the same time a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine reported that children made up less than 1% of COVID-19 cases in China. As of March 8, the study said, a 10-month-old had died of the disease. That child had bowel blockage and multi-organ failure and died four weeks after admission to the hospital.
The first infant death in the United States from COVID-19 happened in Chicago, the Illinois Department of Public Health reported on March 28.
Kira Johnson received a positive test result for COVID-19 on April 7.
She has underlying mitochondrial and metabolic medical conditions, her mother said.
“So, we have to be really conscious of her energy expenditure,” Jeannie Johnson said. “So fighting the fever has been tricky. She also has epilepsy.”
www.gpbnews.org/post/9-year-old-girl-reports-52-day-fever-associated-covid-19


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Fox News: Schiff in Panic Mode

Fox News: Schiff in Panic Mode

More reports being released that show no collusion between the Trump team and Russia .
Schiff knew this the whole @ @ @ @ @ he had direct evidence .
“ Another source familiar with the transcripts told Fox News @ @ @ @ @ the House Intelligence Committee during its Russia probe were asked whether they had evidence that @ @ @ @ @ the Trump campaign conspired , colluded or coordinated with Russia during the 2016 election .
@ @ @ @ @ transcripts told Fox News that not one of the 53 witnesses could provide evidence of @ @ @ @ @ show a total lack of evidence , despite Schiff personally going out saying he had @ @ @ @ @ there was collusion , ” one source involved in House Russia investigations told Fox News @ @

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
More reports being released that show no collusion between the Trump team and Russia. Schiff knew this the whole time even though he said he had direct evidence.
“Another source familiar with the transcripts told Fox News that the people interviewed by the House Intelligence Committee during its Russia probe were asked whether they had evidence that Trump, himself, or the Trump campaign conspired, colluded or coordinated with Russia during the 2016 election.
Two sources familiar with the transcripts told Fox News that not one of the 53 witnesses could provide evidence of collusion.
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“The transcripts show a total lack of evidence, despite Schiff personally going out saying he had more than circumstantial evidence that there was collusion,” one source involved in House Russia investigations told Fox News.”
www.foxnews.com/politics/russia-transcripts-collusion-schiff-panic-mode-sources


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Coronavirus: Vaccine optimism is misplaced, the Covid-19 breakthrough will come elsewhere

OPINION : The Covid-19 pandemic has already led to the infection of more than 3.5 million people and killed more than 250,000 , so great hopes are being placed on the rapid development of an effective vaccine , with timelines of 12 to 18 months being touted .
Science Minister Karen Andrews is even more optimistic , suggesting a vaccine may be possible within 10 to 15 months .
Australia has done remarkably well , thanks to the government ’ s prudent approach and the extraordinary efforts of our people to follow social distancing policies , with among the lowest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world , although each death is a tragedy .
Nevertheless , hopes for the rapid return to a normal life , here and worldwide , hinge on the development of an effective vaccine .
But is this realistic and should we be paying more attention to developing a Plan B while we wait ?
Vaccines are safe , relatively inexpensive and have been extraordinarily effective for many diseases , including smallpox , polio , chickenpox , yellow fever , hepatitis A , tetanus , measles , mumps , diphtheria , human papillomavirus that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recently , Ebola .
So why not for Covid-19 ?
There are more than 90 vaccines in development worldwide against SARS-CoV-2 , the virus that causes Covid-19 disease .
While these involve both traditional and novel approaches , all are based on the same premises regarding viral entry and host response .
I sincerely hope I ’ m wrong , but I suspect it is going to take many , many years to develop a vaccine , despite the extra $ 12 billion pledged into the search for vaccines , treatments and tests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV , both closely related to SARS-CoV-2 , show that natural immunity to these viruses is short-lived .
In fact , reinfection with the same strain that caused an initial infection has been observed in some animal studies .
This raises the question : even if we are successful in developing a vaccine for Covid-19 , for how long will it be effective ?
There are also other reasons to be concerned .
Successful vaccines provide protection by stimulating the production of so-called neutralising antibodies that prevent viral entry into cells @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines have yet to be developed that can stimulate the production of neutralising antibodies effective against HIV , hepatitis C , cytomegalovirus or dengue fever , let alone SARS or MERS .
And certain viruses mutate rapidly , rendering the vaccine that was effective against last year ’ s flu virus , for example , ineffective against the strains causing infection this year .
Rapid mutation may also mean that antibodies from patients who have recovered from Covid-19 , so-called convalescent antibodies , may be ineffective for treating the disease in others who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trials of such antibodies , prepared by the CSIRO , are in progress .

by mark000
OPINION: The Covid-19 pandemic has already led to the infection of more than 3.5 million people and killed more than 250,000, so great hopes are being placed on the rapid development of an effective vaccine, with timelines of 12 to 18 months being touted. Science Minister Karen Andrews is even more optimistic, suggesting a vaccine may be possible within 10 to 15 months.
Australia has done remarkably well, thanks to the government’s prudent approach and the extraordinary efforts of our people to follow social distancing policies, with among the lowest rates of infection and deaths in the world, although each death is a tragedy.
Nevertheless, hopes for the rapid return to a normal life, here and worldwide, hinge on the development of an effective vaccine. But is this realistic and should we be paying more attention to developing a Plan B while we wait?
Vaccines are safe, relatively inexpensive and have been extraordinarily effective for many diseases, including smallpox, polio, chickenpox, yellow fever, hepatitis A, tetanus, measles, mumps, diphtheria, human papillomavirus that causes cervical cancer and even, most recently, Ebola. So why not for Covid-19?
There are more than 90 vaccines in development worldwide against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19 disease. While these involve both traditional and novel approaches, all are based on the same premises regarding viral entry and host response.
I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but I suspect it is going to take many, many years to develop a vaccine, despite the extra $12 billion pledged into the search for vaccines, treatments and tests this week.
Findings from studies with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, both closely related to SARS-CoV-2, show that natural immunity to these viruses is short-lived. In fact, reinfection with the same strain that caused an initial infection has been observed in some animal studies. This raises the question: even if we are successful in developing a vaccine for Covid-19, for how long will it be effective?
There are also other reasons to be concerned. Successful vaccines provide protection by stimulating the production of so-called neutralising antibodies that prevent viral entry into cells. But despite years of work, vaccines have yet to be developed that can stimulate the production of neutralising antibodies effective against HIV, hepatitis C, cytomegalovirus or dengue fever, let alone SARS or MERS.
And certain viruses mutate rapidly, rendering the vaccine that was effective against last year’s flu virus, for example, ineffective against the strains causing infection this year. Rapid mutation may also mean that antibodies from patients who have recovered from Covid-19, so-called convalescent antibodies, may be ineffective for treating the disease in others who have an active Covid-19 infection, although trials of such antibodies, prepared by the CSIRO, are in progress.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Before Covid 20-30% of death certificates were wrong. Now it’s a lot worse.

Corrections & clarifications : A previous version of this story stated that Bob Anderson , chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics , believed that up to 1 in 3 death certificates nationwide were incorrect before COVID-19 .
Anderson clarified his estimate to be between 20 and 30 percent .
As the United States struggles to track coronavirus fatalities amid spotty testing , delayed lab results and inconsistent reporting standards , a more insidious problem could thwart the country ’ s quest for an accurate death toll .
Between 20 and 30 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Bob Anderson , chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics , said in an interview with the USA TODAY Network .
“ I ’ m always worried about getting good data .
I think this sort of thing can be an issue even in a pandemic , ” Anderson said .
Experts said the inaccuracies are part and parcel of a patchwork , state-by-state system of medical examiners , coroners and doctors who have disparate medical backgrounds , and in some cases none at all .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the pandemic inundates overworked and sometimes untrained officials who fill out the forms .
Accurate death certificates are paramount for health officials trying to determine where to focus resources to fight the spread of the coronavirus , said Umair Shah , executive director of the Public Health Department in Harris County , Texas , which includes Houston .
A review of Missouri hospitals in 2017 , for example , found nearly half of death certificates listed an incorrect cause of death .
A Vermont study found 51 % of death certificates had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physicians the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveyed in 2010 admitted that they knowingly reported an inaccurate cause of death .
Death certificates regularly lack enough details to accurately pinpoint the cause of death , Anderson said .
“ For example , cardiac arrest is not an acceptable cause of death , because everybody dies of cardiac arrest , ” Anderson said .
“ That just means your heart stopped .
”

Corrections & clarifications: A previous version of this story stated that Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, believed that up to 1 in 3 death certificates nationwide were incorrect before COVID-19. Anderson clarified his estimate to be between 20 and 30 percent.
As the United States struggles to track coronavirus fatalities amid spotty testing, delayed lab results and inconsistent reporting standards, a more insidious problem could thwart the country’s quest for an accurate death toll.
Between 20 and 30 percent of death certificates nationwide were wrong before COVID-19, Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, said in an interview with the USA TODAY Network.
“I’m always worried about getting good data. I think this sort of thing can be an issue even in a pandemic,” Anderson said.
Experts said the inaccuracies are part and parcel of a patchwork, state-by-state system of medical examiners, coroners and doctors who have disparate medical backgrounds, and in some cases none at all.
The problem is likely to get worse as the pandemic inundates overworked and sometimes untrained officials who fill out the forms.
Accurate death certificates are paramount for health officials trying to determine where to focus resources to fight the spread of the coronavirus, said Umair Shah, executive director of the Public Health Department in Harris County, Texas, which includes Houston. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“That death represents an ecosystem of people,” Shah said.
Inaccurate death reporting is a long-standing problem.
A review of Missouri hospitals in 2017, for example, found nearly half of death certificates listed an incorrect cause of death. A Vermont study found 51% of death certificates had major errors. Nearly half of the physicians the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveyed in 2010 admitted that they knowingly reported an inaccurate cause of death.
Death certificates regularly lack enough details to accurately pinpoint the cause of death, Anderson said.
“For example, cardiac arrest is not an acceptable cause of death, because everybody dies of cardiac arrest,” Anderson said. “That just means your heart stopped.” amp.usatoday.com/amp/3020778001?__twitter_impression=true


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Chegg, the online student learning platform, reported Q1 earnings on Monday with revenue rising 35%

Chegg, the online student learning platform, reported Q1 earnings on Monday with revenue rising 35% to $131.6 million, exceeding consensus forecast of $122.7 million, while adjusted EPS rose 40% year over year to $0.22

The CEO sees opportunity in the current crisis issuing an upbeat statement saying “ Our belief is that , in @ @ @ @ @ often accelerates the inevitable and that is what we see happening in higher education.
” @ @ @ @ @ before the crisis ( 19 % annual revenue growth for past three years ) and @ @ @ @ @ a moderate acceleration .
Priced on 14x current year estimates the stock is not cheap @ @ @ @ @ But Chegg has a market share of just 7 % in English speaking countries suggesting @ @ @ @ @ for growth of a highly scalable business .
That means profit growth could exceed rapid @ @ @ @ @ not a recommendation to buy or sell .
Stocks are not suitable for everybody .
@ @ @ @ @ .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any @ @ @ @ @ information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by InterestingNews1
The CEO sees opportunity in the current crisis issuing an upbeat statement saying “Our belief is that, in every industry, a crisis often accelerates the inevitable and that is what we see happening in higher education.”
But Chegg was growing fast before the crisis (19% annual revenue growth for past three years) and the recent result only represents a moderate acceleration.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Priced on 14x current year estimates the stock is not cheap for the market leader. But Chegg has a market share of just 7% in English speaking countries suggesting there is plenty of room for growth of a highly scalable business. That means profit growth could exceed rapid revenue growth.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are not suitable for everybody. Please do your own research.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--What It’s Like to Believe Everything the Media Tells You

If you don ’ t like how things are going and you want your freedom to go outside , then @ @ @ @ @ s science really ?
Sit back in your lazy boy and get ready to learn @ @ @ @ @ BELIEVE !

If you don’t like how things are going and you want your freedom to go outside, then go, like what’s science really? Sit back in your lazy boy and get ready to learn the realest truths..YOU WANT TO BELIEVE!
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Trump admitted he never had a flu shot or the flu!

Trump called into the Opie and Jim Norton show before he was president and told them he never had a @ @ @ @ @ and that he didn ’ t doesn ’ t like “ injecting bad stuff into @ @ @ @ @ states that he has friends who “ religiously get the flu shot and then get @ @ @ @

Trump called into the Opie and Jim Norton show before he was president and told them he never had a flu shot or the flu and that he didn’t doesn’t like “injecting bad stuff into your body”. He states that he has friends who “religiously get the flu shot and then get the flu”.
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h/t Pandora Petal


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Report: Christopher Steele Just Threw Hillary and Susan Rice Under the Bus During Testimony in Briti

Report: Christopher Steele Just Threw Hillary and Susan Rice Under the Bus During Testimony in British Court

“ Well , we knew it was coming at some point…the moment when the “ Dossier Damn ” would break and the truth would come rushing through .
We ’ re now seeing the first crack in the wall and the water is starting to leak and Democrats have to be groaning in agony .
Christopher Steele – the former British Intel spy who wrote the debunked “ fan fiction ” Trump-Russia dossier for Team Hillary just threw Queen Hillary and disgraced liar Susan Rice under the proverbial bus during testimony in a British court .
Mr. Steele told a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Susan Rice were both aware of his dossier research as it was ongoing during the summer of 2016.
” “ Steele told a British court he believed he had been hired by the Fusion GPS firm owned by Glenn Simpson through the Democratic National Committee-linked law firm Perkins Coie to assist the Clinton campaign during the election , according to a transcript of the testimony .
“ I presumed it was the Clinton campaign , and Glenn Simpson had indicated that .
But I was not aware of the technicality of it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ client of Perkins Coie , ” Steele testified in March under questioning from lawyers for Russian bankers suing over his research .
“ You knew it was the leadership of the Clinton presidential campaign didn ’ t you ?
” a lawyer for the businessmen asked .
“ I believed it was the campaign .
Yes , ” he answered .
“ The leadership of the Clinton campaign ?
” he was asked .
“ Fine , the leadership of the campaign , ” Steele conceded .
“ You also understood that Hillary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were doing ?
” the lawyer asked .
“ I think Glenn had mentioned it , but I wasn ’ t clear , ” Steele answered .
”

“Well, we knew it was coming at some point…the moment when the “Dossier Damn” would break and the truth would come rushing through.
We’re now seeing the first crack in the wall and the water is starting to leak and Democrats have to be groaning in agony.
Christopher Steele – the former British Intel spy who wrote the debunked “fan fiction” Trump-Russia dossier for Team Hillary just threw Queen Hillary and disgraced liar Susan Rice under the proverbial bus during testimony in a British court.
Mr. Steele told a British court that he believed Hillary Clinton and Susan Rice were both aware of his dossier research as it was ongoing during the summer of 2016.”
Documents:
“Steele told a British court he believed he had been hired by the Fusion GPS firm owned by Glenn Simpson through the Democratic National Committee-linked law firm Perkins Coie to assist the Clinton campaign during the election, according to a transcript of the testimony.
“I presumed it was the Clinton campaign, and Glenn Simpson had indicated that. But I was not aware of the technicality of it being the DNC that was actually the client of Perkins Coie,” Steele testified in March under questioning from lawyers for Russian bankers suing over his research.
“You knew it was the leadership of the Clinton presidential campaign didn’t you?” a lawyer for the businessmen asked.
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“I believed it was the campaign. Yes,” he answered.
“The leadership of the Clinton campaign?” he was asked.
“Fine, the leadership of the campaign,” Steele conceded.
The lawyer persisted.
“You also understood that Hillary Clinton herself was aware of what you were doing?” the lawyer asked.
“I think Glenn had mentioned it, but I wasn’t clear,” Steele answered.”
www.waynedupree.com/steele-susan-rice-hillary-clinton-dossier/
SS


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--“We’re Going to Court!” Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights vs Trudeau Govt.

The CCFR , as the public relations and education branch of the Canadian firearms community , has not typically pursued litigation as a tool of changing legislation or steering public policy .
As a result of this unprecedented attack on the freedom and liberty of Canadian sport shooters and hunters , that ’ s changing .
Over the last five days , the CCFR has looked at what the Liberal Party of Canada has done to us with their massive , overreaching firearms ban , and in that short time to the best of our ability we have assessed all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we can respond to protect our members .
This issue gives rise to complicated arguments of constitutional law and the legislative process , however the arguments boiled down to this fundamental truth : the government , in an entirely arbitrary and irrational way , has created legislation that will deprive us of our property and our freedom to live as we wish , on pains of incarceration for failing to comply .
While we have assessed the legal technicalities of what they have done in great detail , the government is charged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our options are not great .
That said , when we took our analysis back to first principles , and the actual nature of our complaint , it became quite simple : we believe that this is a wrongful deprivation of liberty arising from an improper exercise of legislative power .

Ottawa, ON May 6, 2020
The CCFR, as the public relations and education branch of the Canadian firearms community, has not typically pursued litigation as a tool of changing legislation or steering public policy. As a result of this unprecedented attack on the freedom and liberty of Canadian sport shooters and hunters, that’s changing.
Over the last five days, the CCFR has looked at what the Liberal Party of Canada has done to us with their massive, overreaching firearms ban, and in that short time to the best of our ability we have assessed all of the associated issues and the ways that we can respond to protect our members.
This issue gives rise to complicated arguments of constitutional law and the legislative process, however the arguments boiled down to this fundamental truth: the government, in an entirely arbitrary and irrational way, has created legislation that will deprive us of our property and our freedom to live as we wish, on pains of incarceration for failing to comply.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
While we have assessed the legal technicalities of what they have done in great detail, the government is charged with passing legislation governing the nation and our options are not great. That said, when we took our analysis back to first principles, and the actual nature of our complaint, it became quite simple: we believe that this is a wrongful deprivation of liberty arising from an improper exercise of legislative power.
firearmrights.ca/en/we-are-going-to-court/
OB


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--U.K. economy forecast to shrink by most since 1706!

LONDON — The Bank of England warned Thursday that the British economy could suffer its deepest annual contraction in more than three centuries as a result of the coronavirus pandemic , before roaring back next year .
In what it describes as a “ plausible ” scenario , the bank said the British economy will be 30 % smaller at the end of the first half of the year than it was at the start of it , with the second quarter seeing a 25 % slump alone following a 3 % decline in the first .
Unemployment is projected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % , but that figure does not include the 6 million workers who have been retained by firms as part of a scheme that sees the government pay up to 80 % of salaries .
Many of those people furloughed may end up losing their jobs if the economy fails to recover as anticipated or the government starts withdrawing its support too soon .
Over the longer term , the bank thinks the British economy could revive quickly if the pandemic comes under control globally .
Under this scenario , it estimates that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % next year , which would be the biggest annual increase since 1704 .
In fact , the bank expects the economy to be more or less back to where it was by the end of 2021 , with the financial sector helping the corporate sector get through the strain — in contrast to the aftermath of the financial crisis , when many banks had collapsed .

LONDON — The Bank of England warned Thursday that the British economy could suffer its deepest annual contraction in more than three centuries as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, before roaring back next year.
In what it describes as a “plausible” scenario, the bank said the British economy will be 30% smaller at the end of the first half of the year than it was at the start of it, with the second quarter seeing a 25% slump alone following a 3% decline in the first.
Unemployment is projected to more than double to around 9%, but that figure does not include the 6 million workers who have been retained by firms as part of a scheme that sees the government pay up to 80% of salaries. Many of those people furloughed may end up losing their jobs if the economy fails to recover as anticipated or the government starts withdrawing its support too soon.
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Over the longer term, the bank thinks the British economy could revive quickly if the pandemic comes under control globally. Under this scenario, it estimates that the economy could grow by by 15% next year, which would be the biggest annual increase since 1704. In fact, the bank expects the economy to be more or less back to where it was by the end of 2021, with the financial sector helping the corporate sector get through the strain — in contrast to the aftermath of the financial crisis, when many banks had collapsed.
www.ctvnews.ca/world/u-k-economy-forecast-to-shrink-by-most-since-1706-1.4928619


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--A Look At The Extreme Stock Market Insanity Using Only One Tech “Unicorn” Company

Wayfair is one of the tech-borne “ unicorn ” style companies which has become a symbol of the most over-inflated stock bubble in U.S. history .
The dot.com bubble on steroids .
Its business model is geared to generate sales growth as a device to inflate the company ’ s market cap by enticing enough volume from momentum chasing gamblers to enable the insiders to dump shares in copious quantities .
The problem for anyone holding the stock as an “ investment , ” as opposed to renting the stock long enough in hopes that another stock renter will come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is that the business model is hopelessly unprofitable and the operations now burn an increasing amount of cash every quarter .
For the full year 2019 , Wayfair lost $ 929 million on an operating basis .
Its pre-tax net loss was nearly $ 1 billion and nearly double the pre-tax loss in 2018 , which was more than double the pre-tax loss in 2017 .
W ’ s operations burned $ 196 million in cash ( from the cash flow statement ) in 2019 ( these numbers include the add-back for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three years long term debt more than quadrupled from $ 333 million in 2017 to $ 1.5 billion by the end of 2019 .
In its first quarter 2020 reported today , Wayfair ’ s operations lost $ 284 million , this was a 36 % increase in its operating loss from Q1 2019 .
Its operations burned $ 256 million in cash in Q1 2020 , inclusive of the non-stock comp add-back , more than triple the cash burn in the year earlier quarter .
After the quarter ended , just 7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 535 million in debt to bring its debt-load over $ 2 billion .
Granted its debt consists of convertible bonds , but the Company still incurs cash interest expenses plus principle accretion .
This is notwithstanding the potential massive share dilution if/when the converts convert .
And management wants the market to believe that the business model will “ turn positive this quarter.
” Hmmm…Management also gushed over the increase in traffic to its website and increase in sales .
This assertion from the CEO , Niraj Shah , is absurd : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we would expect it to generate additional profitability this quarter.
” What ?
To begin with “ incremental revenue will be additive ” is a redundancy .
If corporate CEO ’ s are going to rip off public shareholders , at least learn proper use of the language .
How can this added x 2 revenue generate “ additional profitability ?
” W has not been profitable in over two years .
If it were the case that W was going to generate profitability from the increase in sales , why did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sale in April ?
Funny thing about management ’ s confidence .
It ’ s not putting its money where its mouth is .
Over the last three months insiders dumped over 1 million shares right up to five business days before Q1 earnings were released .
Wayfair clearly drives its revenues by selling its products at a price which is highly competitive in cyberspace but not nearly high enough to cover the all-in cost of operating its business model .
If it charged prices which enabled it generate an operating profit , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If it continues forward using the same revenue generation strategy , the Company will hit the wall when it runs out of cash .
Wayfair ’ s existence is attributable exclusively to the money sloshing around the financial system from Fed money printing .
At some point the market will no longer be willing to risk throwing capital into W ’ s black hole and it will be lights out , with shareholders left holding the bag .

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
Wayfair is one of the tech-borne “unicorn” style companies which has become a symbol of the most over-inflated stock bubble in U.S. history. The dot.com bubble on steroids. Its business model is geared to generate sales growth as a device to inflate the company’s market cap by enticing enough volume from momentum chasing gamblers to enable the insiders to dump shares in copious quantities.
The problem for anyone holding the stock as an “investment,” as opposed to renting the stock long enough in hopes that another stock renter will come along and pay a higher rental rate, is that the business model is hopelessly unprofitable and the operations now burn an increasing amount of cash every quarter.
For the full year 2019, Wayfair lost $929 million on an operating basis. Its pre-tax net loss was nearly $1 billion and nearly double the pre-tax loss in 2018, which was more than double the pre-tax loss in 2017. W’s operations burned $196 million in cash (from the cash flow statement) in 2019 (these numbers include the add-back for non-cash stock comp). In those three years long term debt more than quadrupled from $333 million in 2017 to $1.5 billion by the end of 2019.
In its first quarter 2020 reported today, Wayfair’s operations lost $284 million, this was a 36% increase in its operating loss from Q1 2019. Its operations burned $256 million in cash in Q1 2020, inclusive of the non-stock comp add-back, more than triple the cash burn in the year earlier quarter.
After the quarter ended, just 7 days into Q2, Wayfair issued another $535 million in debt to bring its debt-load over $2 billion. Granted its debt consists of convertible bonds, but the Company still incurs cash interest expenses plus principle accretion. This is notwithstanding the potential massive share dilution if/when the converts convert.
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And management wants the market to believe that the business model will “turn positive this quarter.” Hmmm…Management also gushed over the increase in traffic to its website and increase in sales. This assertion from the CEO, Niraj Shah, is absurd: “all incremental revenue will be additive and we would expect it to generate additional profitability this quarter.”
What? To begin with “incremental revenue will be additive” is a redundancy. If corporate CEO’s are going to rip off public shareholders, at least learn proper use of the language. How can this added x 2 revenue generate “additional profitability?” W has not been profitable in over two years. If it were the case that W was going to generate profitability from the increase in sales, why did Company roll out an 80% off sale in April?
Funny thing about management’s confidence. It’s not putting its money where its mouth is. Over the last three months insiders dumped over 1 million shares right up to five business days before Q1 earnings were released.
Wayfair clearly drives its revenues by selling its products at a price which is highly competitive in cyberspace but not nearly high enough to cover the all-in cost of operating its business model. If it charged prices which enabled it generate an operating profit, its sales would be hit hard. If it continues forward using the same revenue generation strategy, the Company will hit the wall when it runs out of cash.
Wayfair’s existence is attributable exclusively to the money sloshing around the financial system from Fed money printing. At some point the market will no longer be willing to risk throwing capital into W’s black hole and it will be lights out, with shareholders left holding the bag.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Customers shot 2 McDonald’s employees after being told to leave due to coronavirus restrictions

Two McDonald ’ s employees in Oklahoma City were shot Wednesday after they told two customers to leave the store ’ s dining area , police said .
The suspects got angry and took out a gun when they were asked to leave due to coronavirus restrictions .
Two workers were shot and a third was injured after a scuffle broke out , Henderson said .
Police told KOCO that one of the victims was shot in the leg while the other was shot in the shoulder .
Neither injury is considered life-threatening , the affiliate reported .
Police at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received cuts to her head , KOCO reported .
The two suspects then fled and were apprehended nearby , Henderson added .
The incident is one of a number reported across the country that authorities said were related to restrictions put in place to combat the spread of the virus .
In Michigan , a Family Dollar store security guard was shot after telling a customer to wear a face mask — a mandate in place by the state for all retail stores .
Also in Michigan , a man wiped his nose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shirt after the employee told him he needed to wear a mask .
In Southern California , a customer wore what appeared to be a Ku Klux Klan hood during a trip to the grocery store — and repeatedly ignored staff requests to remove it .

Two McDonald’s employees in Oklahoma City were shot Wednesday after they told two customers to leave the store’s dining area, police said.
The suspects got angry and took out a gun when they were asked to leave due to coronavirus restrictions. Two workers were shot and a third was injured after a scuffle broke out, Henderson said. Police told KOCO that one of the victims was shot in the leg while the other was shot in the shoulder. Neither injury is considered life-threatening, the affiliate reported. Police at the scene also said a female employee received cuts to her head, KOCO reported.
The two suspects then fled and were apprehended nearby, Henderson added.
The incident is one of a number reported across the country that authorities said were related to restrictions put in place to combat the spread of the virus. In Michigan, a Family Dollar store security guard was shot after telling a customer to wear a face mask — a mandate in place by the state for all retail stores.
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Also in Michigan, a man wiped his nose on a Dollar Tree worker’s shirt after the employee told him he needed to wear a mask.
In Southern California, a customer wore what appeared to be a Ku Klux Klan hood during a trip to the grocery store — and repeatedly ignored staff requests to remove it.
abc13.com/mcdonalds-shooting-oklahoma-mcdonalds-city-okc/6159614/


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--We either have equality or we don’t.

We either have equality or we don’t.

Created to counter sexual harassment and discrimination , these programs are now being reviewed by the Trump administration ’ s @ @ @ @ @ federal department ’ s Office for Civil Rights has opened more than 90 investigations of @ @ @ @ @ in all 12 of the office ’ s regional branches nationwide , and the total @ @ @ @ @ complaints are reviewed and accepted for investigation .
The complaints started off as a trickle @ @ @ @ @ who found the programs offensive , and have come fast and furious in the past @ @ @ @ @ complaints now await resolution .
The charges of anti-male discrimination may soon balloon as advocates @ @ @ @ @ schools that receive federal funding and are subject to federal regulatory compliance and Title IX @ @

REALCLEARINVESTIGATIONS: The Growing Backlash Against Female-Only School Programs.
Created to counter sexual harassment and discrimination, these programs are now being reviewed by the Trump administration’s Department of Education. The federal department’s Office for Civil Rights has opened more than 90 investigations of the programs to date, in all 12 of the office’s regional branches nationwide, and the total grows nearly every week as complaints are reviewed and accepted for investigation.
The complaints started off as a trickle, lodged mostly by men who found the programs offensive, and have come fast and furious in the past few years. Nearly 300 complaints now await resolution.
The charges of anti-male discrimination may soon balloon as advocates expand their campaign to K-12 schools that receive federal funding and are subject to federal regulatory compliance and Title IX oversight.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Completely Crap: Trey Gowdy Admits No One Will Be Prosecuted for Russiagate

If this is true , I completely give up .
The FBI and DOJ along with the democrats who took part need to be held to a higher standard than citizens .
“ But that brings us to the next phase .
Which of the wealthy and sanctimonious elites who perpetrated this extraordinary crime against America will be fitted with an orange jumpsuit , locked in a cage and forced to eat cafeteria food with guys named Viper and Mongo for the next 20 years ?
Who will swing from the gallows , as the perpetrators of the coup against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal prosecutor Trey Gowdy , no one will .
After the Flynn revelations last week , Gowdy was asked by a Fox News hostess if he thought there would be prosecutions .
Here ’ s his response : “ No , ma ’ am !
I was talking to a federal prosecutor on the way over here .
We have got to not only associate accountability with prosecutions .
I think being a terrible FBI agent and treating people unfairly – maybe it ought to be a crime , but I don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The takeaway is the next time the FBI says ‘ Hey , we ’ d like to talk , ’ tell them ‘ No.
’ ” Accountability involves telling the FBI “ No ” if they want to interrogate you ?
How does that hold James Comey , John Brennan , James Clapper , Loretta Lynch or Barack Obama accountable for attempting to overturn the 2016 election , lying to the FISA court to obtain spying warrants on American citizens and smearing the President of the United States with the fake Russian dossier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General Bill Barr and the alleged Durham investigation don ’ t result in prosecutions of these clowns , then there will never be accountability for this attempted coup .
Ask any parent how this concept works .
Telling a toddler “ No ” will not prevent them from overdosing on chocolate chip cookies again and again .
There needs to be a consequence to correct bad behavior .
But the Deep State doesn ’ t seem to want consequences for the incredible injustice that was carried out against Gen. Flynn , Roger Stone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If Trump really wants to see accountability for the Russian collusion coup attempt , here ’ s a suggestion .
Make a couple of new appointments at the Department of Justice : Attorney General Roger Stone and Deputy Attorney General Mike Flynn .
I bet we ’ d see some prosecutions happen then !
”

If this is true, I completely give up.
The FBI and DOJ along with the democrats who took part need to be held to a higher standard than citizens.
From the article:
“But that brings us to the next phase. Which of the wealthy and sanctimonious elites who perpetrated this extraordinary crime against America will be fitted with an orange jumpsuit, locked in a cage and forced to eat cafeteria food with guys named Viper and Mongo for the next 20 years? Who will swing from the gallows, as the perpetrators of the coup against Abraham Lincoln did?
According to former federal prosecutor Trey Gowdy, no one will.
After the Flynn revelations last week, Gowdy was asked by a Fox News hostess if he thought there would be prosecutions. Here’s his response:
“No, ma’am! I was talking to a federal prosecutor on the way over here. We have got to not only associate accountability with prosecutions. I think being a terrible FBI agent and treating people unfairly – maybe it ought to be a crime, but I don’t think it is a crime. The takeaway is the next time the FBI says ‘Hey, we’d like to talk,’ tell them ‘No.’”
Um…
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What?
Accountability involves telling the FBI “No” if they want to interrogate you? How does that hold James Comey, John Brennan, James Clapper, Loretta Lynch or Barack Obama accountable for attempting to overturn the 2016 election, lying to the FISA court to obtain spying warrants on American citizens and smearing the President of the United States with the fake Russian dossier’s delusional claims?
If Attorney General Bill Barr and the alleged Durham investigation don’t result in prosecutions of these clowns, then there will never be accountability for this attempted coup. Ask any parent how this concept works. Telling a toddler “No” will not prevent them from overdosing on chocolate chip cookies again and again. There needs to be a consequence to correct bad behavior. But the Deep State doesn’t seem to want consequences for the incredible injustice that was carried out against Gen. Flynn, Roger Stone, Donald Trump and other patriotic Americans.
If Trump really wants to see accountability for the Russian collusion coup attempt, here’s a suggestion. Make a couple of new appointments at the Department of Justice:
Attorney General Roger Stone and Deputy Attorney General Mike Flynn. I bet we’d see some prosecutions happen then!”
www.americanlibertyreport.com/articles/trey-gowdy-admits-no-one-will-be-prosecuted-for-russiagate/
At 6:07:
h/t SouthSide


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--We’re not in this together

We’re not in this together

Americans deserve this for allowing the government to have this much power .
Now go back to cheering for more @ @ @ @ @ to hand over your guns when the boys in blue come to have a chat @

by Fauxcahontas
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Americans deserve this for allowing the government to have this much power. Now go back to cheering for more foreign wars and dont forget to hand over your guns when the boys in blue come to have a chat.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--A Message for Everyone…

A Message for Everyone…

We are still not “ back to normal ” .
Please understand that social distancing and quarantine are not an infringement upon your human rights .
They are necessary to keep us all safe .
More importantly , they are necessary for protecting the vulnerable .
People ’ s lives are more important than your desire to go out and socialize .
When you ’ re dead , who would you socialize with then ?
?
While I may not be in the high risk group , I am protecting them by protecting myself by staying home and keeping my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Everyone , please understand that this is not about you .
It ’ s about the well-being of mankind .
We are all in this together ( from a distance of course ) .
Why are people still having parties or getting together right now ?
?
I turn 25 on the 20th and I won ’ t be going out for it though things are open now here in Georgia .
I ’ m refusing to go out because people ’ s health and safety are more important than going out @ @ @ @

by KrisspyKremeThomas95
Dear People:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We are still not “back to normal”. Please understand that social distancing and quarantine are not an infringement upon your human rights. They are necessary to keep us all safe. More importantly, they are necessary for protecting the vulnerable. People’s lives are more important than your desire to go out and socialize. When you’re dead, who would you socialize with then?? While I may not be in the high risk group, I am protecting them by protecting myself by staying home and keeping my distance whenever I have to go out. Everyone, please understand that this is not about you. It’s about the well-being of mankind. We are all in this together (from a distance of course).
Why are people still having parties or getting together right now?? I turn 25 on the 20th and I won’t be going out for it though things are open now here in Georgia. I’m refusing to go out because people’s health and safety are more important than going out for my birthday.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Ex interior minister of Austria denounces COVID manipulation, media scare tactics, and calls out to

Ex interior minister of Austria denounces COVID manipulation, media scare tactics, and calls out to government to : “Wake up and take action”

Europe is starting to wake up , people are coming out of the closet .

by i-technology
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Europe is starting to wake up, people are coming out of the closet.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Mayor of Ventura county has some disturbing words

They are going to rip people out of their homes and put them into ‘ other types of housing ’ @ @

WHAT WOULD YOU DO if your six year old son or daughter tested positive for COVID19 and was taken from your home to a quarantine center by Ventura Health Authorities? This SHOCKING VIDEO demands that you plan ahead. #BeBrave #HistoryRepeating pic.twitter.com/e5RC7dCO7o — Del Bigtree (@delbigtree) May 6, 2020
They are going to rip people out of their homes and put them into ‘other types of housing’….
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--WELL, THEY SHOULD BE: The Chinese government is worried global anti-China sentiment is at its highes

WELL, THEY SHOULD BE: The Chinese government is worried global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since Tiananmen Square. COLD WAR II: U.S. rearms to nullify China’s missile supremacy.

The think tank ’ s research was reportedly presented in early April to top Chinese Communist Party officials , including President Xi Jinping .
Reuters ’ report is based off sources who have direct knowledge of the findings , though the news outlet has not seen the briefing itself .
If reports of its contents are accurate , it would at least confirm Beijing is taking the backlash seriously , though Reuters notes it ’ s unclear if those concerns will ultimately influence policy .
The paper reportedly concluded the rising anti-China sentiment is in part a result of American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid the crisis .
That last line is a real tell of just how deep the Communist regime is stuck in its own head , as Communist regimes usually are .
What Beijing forgets , or can ’ t allow itself to understand , is that it was easy for the West to sweep Tianneman and a few thousand dead Chinese under the rug as there was all that money still to be made .
It ’ s much more difficult to do that after years of getting ripped off by the PRC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own countries .
The Pentagon intends to arm its Marines with versions of the Tomahawk cruise missile now carried on U.S. warships , according to the White House budget requests for 2021 and Congressional testimony in March of senior U.S. military commanders .
It is also accelerating deliveries of its first new long-range anti-ship missiles in decades .
In a statement to Reuters about the latest U.S. moves , Beijing urged Washington to “ be cautious in word and deed , ” to “ stop moving chess pieces around ” the region , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ muscles around China.
” The U.S. moves are aimed at countering China ’ s overwhelming advantage in land-based cruise and ballistic missiles .
The Pentagon also intends to dial back China ’ s lead in what strategists refer to as the “ range war.
” The People ’ s Liberation Army ( PLA ) , China ’ s military , has built up a huge force of missiles that mostly outrange those of the U.S. and its regional allies , according to senior U.S. commanders and strategic advisers to the Pentagon , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear advantage in these weapons .
And , in a radical shift in tactics , the Marines will join forces with the U.S. Navy in attacking an enemy ’ s warships .
Small and mobile units of U.S. Marines armed with anti-ship missiles will become ship killers .
Remember Obama ’ s “ pivot to Asia ” that turned out to be a nothingburger with a side of zerofries ?
These new moves are the real deal .
Canadian investigation finds that China secretly told embassies around the world to buy all personal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Global News found that China secretly told embassies around the world to buy all personal protective equipment possible — in mid-January , when it knew the virus would likely go global .
The regime used diplomats , state-owned companies and Chinese émigrés to purchase N95 masks and other gear to ship “ back batches of scarce supplies for the motherland.
” About 100 tons shipped out of Canada alone — leaving that country with limited supplies when the pandemic hit .
That investigation backs up this week ’ s US Department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ intentionally concealed the severity ” of its coronavirus crisis in January so it could stock up on medical supplies from abroad — which it also lied about , covering up trade data .
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds a press briefing at the State Department .
“ There is no true win with a communist regime ” He ’ s encouraging other nations to support Taiwan stepping up on the world stage .

via theweek
The think tank’s research was reportedly presented in early April to top Chinese Communist Party officials, including President Xi Jinping. Reuters’ report is based off sources who have direct knowledge of the findings, though the news outlet has not seen the briefing itself. If reports of its contents are accurate, it would at least confirm Beijing is taking the backlash seriously, though Reuters notes it’s unclear if those concerns will ultimately influence policy. The paper reportedly concluded the rising anti-China sentiment is in part a result of American efforts to undermine public confidence in Beijing amid the crisis.
That last line is a real tell of just how deep the Communist regime is stuck in its own head, as Communist regimes usually are. What Beijing forgets, or can’t allow itself to understand, is that it was easy for the West to sweep Tianneman and a few thousand dead Chinese under the rug as there was all that money still to be made. It’s much more difficult to do that after years of getting ripped off by the PRC and when the dead are in our own countries.
LIKE JOHN KERRY, THEY’RE FORGAINST IT: China Demands, Prevents Coronavirus Investigation.
COLD WAR II: U.S. rearms to nullify China’s missile supremacy.
The Pentagon intends to arm its Marines with versions of the Tomahawk cruise missile now carried on U.S. warships, according to the White House budget requests for 2021 and Congressional testimony in March of senior U.S. military commanders. It is also accelerating deliveries of its first new long-range anti-ship missiles in decades. In a statement to Reuters about the latest U.S. moves, Beijing urged Washington to “be cautious in word and deed,” to “stop moving chess pieces around” the region, and to “stop flexing its military muscles around China.” The U.S. moves are aimed at countering China’s overwhelming advantage in land-based cruise and ballistic missiles. The Pentagon also intends to dial back China’s lead in what strategists refer to as the “range war.” The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China’s military, has built up a huge force of missiles that mostly outrange those of the U.S. and its regional allies, according to senior U.S. commanders and strategic advisers to the Pentagon, who have been warning that China holds a clear advantage in these weapons. And, in a radical shift in tactics, the Marines will join forces with the U.S. Navy in attacking an enemy’s warships. Small and mobile units of U.S. Marines armed with anti-ship missiles will become ship killers.
Remember Obama’s “pivot to Asia” that turned out to be a nothingburger with a side of zerofries? These new moves are the real deal.
Canadian investigation finds that China secretly told embassies around the world to buy all personal protective equipment possible
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An investigation by Canada’s Global News found that China secretly told embassies around the world to buy all personal protective equipment possible — in mid-January, when it knew the virus would likely go global. The regime used diplomats, state-owned companies and Chinese émigrés to purchase N95 masks and other gear to ship “back batches of scarce supplies for the motherland.” About 100 tons shipped out of Canada alone — leaving that country with limited supplies when the pandemic hit. That investigation backs up this week’s US Department of Homeland Security intelligence finding that China “intentionally concealed the severity” of its coronavirus crisis in January so it could stock up on medical supplies from abroad — which it also lied about, covering up trade data.
Pompeo addresses China’s lack of transparency in COVID-19 handling
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds a press briefing at the State Department.
“There is no true win with a communist regime”
He’s encouraging other nations to support Taiwan stepping up on the world stage.
h/t SG


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Success rates for clinical trials of development for vaccines

Down 50 % and only about one month was due to the virus :

by WARREN MOSLER
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Down 50% and only about one month was due to the virus:


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Why the next leg down will happen and why it will be soon

tldr ; The virus is a laboratory construct and when the masses find out it will cause another wave of panic .
I first want to start by saying I ’ m an autist and not a geneticist or have a degree in bioinformatics .
If you want to read the a good source that you can use for your own dd here you go : medium.com/ @ yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 But let ’ s be honest , most of the words in that article are more the two syllables and you guys won ’ t get passed the first couple paragraphs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important parts .
Sars-Cov-2 is a chimera ( genetic splicing of different viruses/organisms ) It is 96 % identical to Bat corona-virus RaTG13 .
Most of the differences are found in the Receptor-Binding Motif ( RBM ) .
This is the RNA that is responsible to make the S2 Glyco-protein ( the thing that attaches to the ace2 receptor to infect your cells ) .
If you just look at just the RBM Sars-Cov-2 is almost identical to a Pangolin Corona virus MP789 from Guangdong .
The things I just told you are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consensus that is being publicly spoken about is that these two virus or mutated variations of them infected the same host in the wet market in Wuhan and through genetic recombination created the BatSoup Virus we have today .
Which would absolutely be possible .
But here is where is gets screwed… .
That image is an amino acid ( AA ) comparison between all 3 viruses .
Each letter represents a different AA .
The red letters are where the AA ’ s are different between the strains being compared .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ series PRRA .
Underneath that are 4 red stars indicating an insertion .
While this can happen naturally , it is highly unlikely this is the case .
Especially since this little 4 AA insertion is incredibly important and the reason why Sars-Cov-2 is highly transmissible .
The amino acid after PRRA is R. This forms the sequence RRAR .
RRAR is what is called a polybasic ferin cleavage site .
Ferin is a special molecule in our bodies and it goes around and finds these site and cuts the amino acid chain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ author goes into detail on the mechanisms but i don ’ t really understand it .
Basically it makes the virus highly transmissible and virulent .
Adding these cleavage sites is very common in Gain of Function research .
Where scientist make virus more functional in human models to anticipate future threats and make therapeutics to counter these phenomena .
My theory is that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was playing around in the lab and forgot to clean their shoes and this got out accidentally .
When the Chinese found out they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s how it spread world-wide .
This is the evidence that trump has been talking about about this virus coming from a lab .
If I found this in between jerking off and being a degenerate on Robinhood then it ’ s only a matter of time before it ’ s on every news station around the world .
That ’ s when the next leg down starts .
Panic will set in again after this comes out and the virus tears us a new one when we start to open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give the bears their strength .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Duckdung
tldr; The virus is a laboratory construct and when the masses find out it will cause another wave of panic.

I first want to start by saying I’m an autist and not a geneticist or have a degree in bioinformatics. If you want to read the a good source that you can use for your own dd here you go: medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748

But let’s be honest, most of the words in that article are more the two syllables and you guys won’t get passed the first couple paragraphs so I’ll summarize the most important parts.

Sars-Cov-2 is a chimera (genetic splicing of different viruses/organisms)
It is 96% identical to Bat corona-virus RaTG13. Most of the differences are found in the Receptor-Binding Motif (RBM). This is the RNA that is responsible to make the S2 Glyco-protein (the thing that attaches to the ace2 receptor to infect your cells).
If you just look at just the RBM Sars-Cov-2 is almost identical to a Pangolin Corona virus MP789 from Guangdong.
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The things I just told you are all known by the public. The consensus that is being publicly spoken about is that these two virus or mutated variations of them infected the same host in the wet market in Wuhan and through genetic recombination created the BatSoup Virus we have today. Which would absolutely be possible. But here is where is gets screwed….

preview.redd.it/szgz695e4bx41.png?width=1132&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc5339c11500b523929869753543703302866140
That image is an amino acid (AA) comparison between all 3 viruses. Each letter represents a different AA. The red letters are where the AA’s are different between the strains being compared. The smoking gun is the highlighted four AA series PRRA. Underneath that are 4 red stars indicating an insertion. While this can happen naturally, it is highly unlikely this is the case. Especially since this little 4 AA insertion is incredibly important and the reason why Sars-Cov-2 is highly transmissible.
The amino acid after PRRA is R. This forms the sequence RRAR. RRAR is what is called a polybasic ferin cleavage site. Ferin is a special molecule in our bodies and it goes around and finds these site and cuts the amino acid chain at the cleavage site. Now the author goes into detail on the mechanisms but i don’t really understand it. Basically it makes the virus highly transmissible and virulent.
Adding these cleavage sites is very common in Gain of Function research. Where scientist make virus more functional in human models to anticipate future threats and make therapeutics to counter these phenomena. My theory is that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was playing around in the lab and forgot to clean their shoes and this got out accidentally. When the Chinese found out they tried to keep it a secret and that’s how it spread world-wide.
This is the evidence that trump has been talking about about this virus coming from a lab. If I found this in between jerking off and being a degenerate on Robinhood then it’s only a matter of time before it’s on every news station around the world. That’s when the next leg down starts.
Panic will set in again after this comes out and the virus tears us a new one when we start to open up again. This is what will give the bears their strength.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--What Buffett actually said about Berkshire’s Cash Position

Getting tired of reading posts from people who clearly didn ’ t watch or read this earnings report or probably any earnings report so here we go .
Tldr : His cash position ( actually t-bills ) is not large compared to the entirety of Berk ’ s assets .
Now can you all stop with the “ But Buffett ’ s holding cash ” meme ?
“ I show our net , our cash and Treasury bill position on March 31st .
And you might look at that and say , “ Well , you ’ ve got $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Treasury bills .
And you ’ ve got… ” At least at that point , we had about , I don ’ t know , $ 180 billion or so in equities .
And you can say , “ Well , that ’ s a huge position to have in Treasury bills versus just $ 180 billion in equities.
” But we really have far more than that in equities because we own a lot of businesses .
We own 100 % of the stock of a great many businesses , which to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stocks we own .
We just don ’ t own them all .
They don ’ t have a quote on them .
But we have hundreds of billions of wholly owned businesses .
So our $ 124 billion is not some 40 % or so cash positions , it ’ s far less than that .
And we will always keep plenty of cash on hand , and for any circumstances , with a 9/11 comes along , if the stock market is closed , as it was in World War I—it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but I didn ’ t think we were going to be having a pandemic when I watched that Creighton-Villanova game in January either .
”

by GromGrommeta
Getting tired of reading posts from people who clearly didn’t watch or read this earnings report or probably any earnings report so here we go. Tldr: His cash position (actually t-bills) is not large compared to the entirety of Berk’s assets. Now can you all stop with the “But Buffett’s holding cash” meme?
“I show our net, our cash and Treasury bill position on March 31st. And you might look at that and say, “Well, you’ve got $125 billion or so in cash and Treasury bills. And you’ve got…” At least at that point, we had about, I don’t know, $180 billion or so in equities. And you can say, “Well, that’s a huge position to have in Treasury bills versus just $180 billion in equities.”
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But we really have far more than that in equities because we own a lot of businesses. We own 100% of the stock of a great many businesses, which to us are very similar to the marketable stocks we own. We just don’t own them all. They don’t have a quote on them. But we have hundreds of billions of wholly owned businesses. So our $124 billion is not some 40% or so cash positions, it’s far less than that.
And we will always keep plenty of cash on hand, and for any circumstances, with a 9/11 comes along, if the stock market is closed, as it was in World War I—it’s not going to be, but I didn’t think we were going to be having a pandemic when I watched that Creighton-Villanova game in January either.”
Full Transcript


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--Do The Bears Have A Better Case?

Do The Bears Have A Better Case?

The bearish narrative is that the latest rally is a trap for the bulls because the economy is in dire shape .
The bullish counterpoint is the economy will recover over the next few quarters as the shutdowns end .
The best time to buy stocks is when the economy is weak , but improving .
The bearish response to that is rate of change analysis on economic growth misses the forest for the trees .
Bears say the economy isn ’ t the problem in the first place .
The problem is COVID-19 .
Of course , the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but if COVID-19 comes back or doesn ’ t improve , we could see more shutdowns .
Stocks used to trade off the number of COVID-19 cases in March , but that relationship has ended as traders are ignoring the relatively high number of new cases in America .
The market might be looking at this situation in too binary of a fashion .
The market sold off precipitously when the number of new cases was increasing and rallied leading up to and after the peak .
The options that implies are either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the situation or we do .
The reality is we have partial control over it ; new cases have peaked , but they aren ’ t falling quickly .
There are risks to reopening that the market is ignoring .
The bullish closing argument is that uncertainty has diminished .
Even if the number of new cases is still relatively high , we have a grasp on the situation .
Plus , we know the Fed and the government will step in if it gets worse .
For example , the Fed can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can give out another $ 1,200 stimulus check .
The bearish closing argument is that the longer this goes on ( or if COVID-19 comes back ) , the tougher it will be to recover from .
There might not be a smooth recovery .
We will now quantitatively back up the bearish and bullish arguments discussed above .
First let ’ s look at the negative economic results .
The GDP Nowcast from the Atlanta Fed shows there will be a decline of 17.6 % in Q2 .
The consensus calls for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Keep in mind , the Atlanta Fed Nowcast will get much worse after the rest of the economic reports from April come out .
When they are all out , it will likely be too negative because it will assume the rest of the quarter grows at that pace , but May and June should show improvement .
As you can see from the chart below , the COVID-19 shutdowns have reduced global GDP growth by over 16 % .
This is much worse than the trough of the global financial crisis .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth fell from -8.1 % to -9.3 % in the week of May 2nd .
That doesn ’ t sound like stabilization .
E-commerce has grown to 30 % of all retail sales as consumers are forced to shop online .
You can see how well online shopping is doing just by looking at Shopify stock .
It ’ s up 93.78 % in the past month , making it the biggest company in all of Canada by market cap .
Pizza deliveries are also on fire as Papa John ’ s had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April which was its best month ever .
There are clear pockets of strength in an underlying weak environment for the consumer .
Many national numbers are still dismal .
For example , the OpenTable bookings data shows restaurant bookings were down 98 % on May 5th .
However , in the states that have opened , the results are improving .
As you can see from the chart below , spending at barber and beauty shops went from non-existent in mid-April to 14 % of the first week of the year on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia because it has started to reopen in the past couple weeks .
The chart shows spending has increased to 104 % of the first week of the year .
It ’ s down from above 140 % in early March , but this is still a significant improvement .
To be clear , if the economy went back to normal , this index would hit a record high because there is a large amount of pent up demand for haircuts .
Unless you got one at home , you need one .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
The data bottomed on April 12th when hours worked fell 77 % , employees working fell 76 % , and locations open was down 67 % yearly .
The data has been improving on a week to week basis .
The weakest data being on the weekend obviously .
As of May 4th , there was only a 34 % decline in locations open , a 41 % decline in employees working , and a 43 % decline in hours worked .
Outside of transportation , which is showing 10 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best growth in employees working as it showed a 13 % decline on May 4th .
As we seek to figure out whether the bulls or bears have it right , there is another driving force behind returns .
It is sector weighting .
Growth tech stocks have pushed the market higher .
If you are following industrials such as Boeing , it doesn ’ t seem like the stock market is pricing in a recovery .
However , if you follow cloud computing stocks , it looks like the best economy ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % year to date .
The chart below shows how poorly value stocks have done as this 51 % drawdown is the worst in 94 years .
Keep in mind , the cloud companies sell to the real economy .
If the economy is in a deep recession , many of these tech firms will be impacted .
The bulls and bears both make good arguments .
The bearish case for stocks is that the economy is in a deep recession .
The bullish case is that the economy is weak now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only part of the truth .
The other aspect is sector performance .
The cloud stocks are on fire , while other companies in the so called ‘ real economy ’ are doing terribly .
Since Amazon and Microsoft are both cloud stocks , the S & P 500 is greatly impacted by this trend .
Value stocks barely impact the big cap indexes because they have fallen so much ( other than the Dow which is heavily impacted by Boeing ) .

by UPFINA
The bearish narrative is that the latest rally is a trap for the bulls because the economy is in dire shape. The bullish counterpoint is the economy will recover over the next few quarters as the shutdowns end. The best time to buy stocks is when the economy is weak, but improving. The bearish response to that is rate of change analysis on economic growth misses the forest for the trees. Bears say the economy isn’t the problem in the first place. The problem is COVID-19. Of course, the economy will improve when shutdowns are ended, but if COVID-19 comes back or doesn’t improve, we could see more shutdowns.
Stocks used to trade off the number of COVID-19 cases in March, but that relationship has ended as traders are ignoring the relatively high number of new cases in America. The market might be looking at this situation in too binary of a fashion. The market sold off precipitously when the number of new cases was increasing and rallied leading up to and after the peak. The options that implies are either we don’t have control over the situation or we do. The reality is we have partial control over it; new cases have peaked, but they aren’t falling quickly. There are risks to reopening that the market is ignoring.
The bullish closing argument is that uncertainty has diminished. Even if the number of new cases is still relatively high, we have a grasp on the situation. Plus, we know the Fed and the government will step in if it gets worse. For example, the Fed can buy more corporate bonds and the government can give out another $1,200 stimulus check. The bearish closing argument is that the longer this goes on (or if COVID-19 comes back), the tougher it will be to recover from. There might not be a smooth recovery.
GDP Crushed & Retail Sales Falters
We will now quantitatively back up the bearish and bullish arguments discussed above. First let’s look at the negative economic results. The GDP Nowcast from the Atlanta Fed shows there will be a decline of 17.6% in Q2. The consensus calls for a decline in the high 20s. Keep in mind, the Atlanta Fed Nowcast will get much worse after the rest of the economic reports from April come out. When they are all out, it will likely be too negative because it will assume the rest of the quarter grows at that pace, but May and June should show improvement. As you can see from the chart below, the COVID-19 shutdowns have reduced global GDP growth by over 16%. This is much worse than the trough of the global financial crisis.
Goldman: COVID-19 containment efforts have reduced global GDP by 16%. pic.twitter.com/cFMkOuCgtV — Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) May 6, 2020
The Redbook same store sales report showed growth fell from -8.1% to -9.3% in the week of May 2nd. That doesn’t sound like stabilization. E-commerce has grown to 30% of all retail sales as consumers are forced to shop online. You can see how well online shopping is doing just by looking at Shopify stock. It’s up 93.78% in the past month, making it the biggest company in all of Canada by market cap. Pizza deliveries are also on fire as Papa John’s had 27% same store sales growth in April which was its best month ever. There are clear pockets of strength in an underlying weak environment for the consumer.
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Georgia Shows Improvement
Many national numbers are still dismal. For example, the OpenTable bookings data shows restaurant bookings were down 98% on May 5th. However, in the states that have opened, the results are improving. As you can see from the chart below, spending at barber and beauty shops went from non-existent in mid-April to 14% of the first week of the year on a national basis. The chart highlights Georgia because it has started to reopen in the past couple weeks.
Guess I’m not the only one who will be making a beeline for the barber when things re-open pic.twitter.com/a5vQTbT0SX — JH (@joshh031) May 5, 2020
The chart shows spending has increased to 104% of the first week of the year. It’s down from above 140% in early March, but this is still a significant improvement. To be clear, if the economy went back to normal, this index would hit a record high because there is a large amount of pent up demand for haircuts. Unless you got one at home, you need one.
Homebase has more data on the Georgia economy. The data bottomed on April 12th when hours worked fell 77%, employees working fell 76%, and locations open was down 67% yearly. The data has been improving on a week to week basis. The weakest data being on the weekend obviously. As of May 4th, there was only a 34% decline in locations open, a 41% decline in employees working, and a 43% decline in hours worked. Outside of transportation, which is showing 10% growth, home and repair had the best growth in employees working as it showed a 13% decline on May 4th.
Reminder: This Is A Growth Market
As we seek to figure out whether the bulls or bears have it right, there is another driving force behind returns. It is sector weighting. Growth tech stocks have pushed the market higher. If you are following industrials such as Boeing, it doesn’t seem like the stock market is pricing in a recovery. However, if you follow cloud computing stocks, it looks like the best economy ever. The CLOU ETF is up 11.35% year to date. The chart below shows how poorly value stocks have done as this 51% drawdown is the worst in 94 years. Keep in mind, the cloud companies sell to the real economy. If the economy is in a deep recession, many of these tech firms will be impacted.
'As of March 2020, Value factor is down -51% from the peak reached 14 years ago. It is the longest and largest drawdown in value’s recent history.' t.co/g8NDJIiHsm ht @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/79SKWgkwUN — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 6, 2020
Conclusion
The bulls and bears both make good arguments. The bearish case for stocks is that the economy is in a deep recession. The bullish case is that the economy is weak now, but improving. That entire dichotomy is only part of the truth. The other aspect is sector performance. The cloud stocks are on fire, while other companies in the so called ‘real economy’ are doing terribly. Since Amazon and Microsoft are both cloud stocks, the S&P 500 is greatly impacted by this trend. Value stocks barely impact the big cap indexes because they have fallen so much (other than the Dow which is heavily impacted by Boeing).


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-07--In many states, the majority of new deaths are in nursing homes—up to 90% in some states such as Con

In many states, the majority of new deaths are in nursing homes—up to 90% in some states such as Connecticut.

Between April 22 and April 29 , the state ’ s death total rose from 1,544 to 2,089 , or @ @ @ @ @ to data released by the state Department of Public Health .
In that same seven-day @ @ @ @ @ from 768 to 1,249 , meaning 481 among the 545 new deaths — about 88 @ @ @ @ @ patients .

Between April 22 and April 29, the state’s death total rose from 1,544 to 2,089, or 545 new deaths, according to data released by the state Department of Public Health. In that same seven-day period nursing home deaths rose from 768 to 1,249, meaning 481 among the 545 new deaths — about 88% — were nursing home patients.