investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--A Recovery Worse Than Most Recessions

A Recovery Worse Than Most Recessions

Let ’ s start with the most obvious confusion .
JP Morgan stated the consensus is if the Democrats win the 2020 election it will be bad for U.S. stocks , but they view it as “ neutral to slight positive.
” That does not compute with the chart below which shows their 2021 earnings projection if the Dems win .
Even if you add $ 8.5 because of China tariff de-escalation and $ 1 in infrastructure spending , the net change is - $ 4 .
That ’ s confusing .
This is emblematic of the stock market itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The great thing about markets is no one knows what is priced in .
Sometimes there are extreme sentiment moves which don ’ t have anything to do with fundamentals .
When people who act as analysts instead of investors try to rationalize prices , it ’ s like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole .
There are two options for these analysts : they either say the market isn ’ t pricing reality and bet against the trend or they come up with an excuse as to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not ignore that markets can become dislocated from reality .
You also can ’ t expect perfectly rational price action once you get involved in a trade .
The fun part is you never know for sure if the market is crazy or if you are wrong .
The two lessons these analysts need to learn are the following : 1 ) if the market is acting irrationally , be flexible .
Don ’ t go all in on a trade where the market makes no sense .
Sometimes the best trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 ) you don ’ t need to rationalize the irrational .
Anyone can come up with a narrative , but that doesn ’ t make it right .
If you assume JP Morgan ’ s election model is accurate , the S & P 500 is still trading at a 20 forward PE multiple as of Monday ’ s close .
You need to lean heavily on low interest rates to justify such a high PE ratio .
While stocks usually have a high PE ratio in recessions , this estimate is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be expensive based on 2020 EPS , but not necessarily on 2021 EPS .
On the positive side , if the Democrats don ’ t win the Senate , a tax increase might not be passed .
A tax hike could hurt S & P 500 EPS by $ 14 ; this isn ’ t a one time event .
On the negative side , Joe Biden is running on being tough on China , so it won ’ t be smooth sailing on trade no matter who wins .
De-escalation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) with China is projected to help 2021 EPS by $ 8.5 .
The infrastructure plan probably can pass no matter who wins the election .
That will only help EPS by $ 1 though .
Investors should always root for a mixed government because less extreme legislation gets passed when one party doesn ’ t control the Congress and White House .
As you can see from the chart above , the S & P 500 has returned 17.2 % per year since 1950 when there is a split Congress like there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won control of the House .
GDP growth is irrelevant in this scenario because markets focus on certainty and because legislation that ’ s passed in a specific term doesn ’ t necessarily impact the economy right away .
Markets react to news instantaneously .
The S & P 500 has transformed itself in the past 10 years .
It has become a quality growth index .
There ’ s less of a need to buy those factors .
You can just buy the index because it ’ s so heavily weighted towards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as you can see from the chart below .
Ironically , the S & P 500 could underperform if there is a cyclical upswing since it is low on cyclicals .
It would be hurt by inflation and higher rates .
Essentially , it would underperform or be hurt by a changing macro environment .
Many tech investors think tech is doing well because growth companies are the future .
There certainly is truth to that , but they are thriving in this environment because of low rates and low inflation .
Investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ materials companies don ’ t do well with low commodity prices and banks don ’ t do well with low rates .
It would be incredibly bad if the labor market stopped improving because the unemployment rate is still above the peak in the last recession .
As you can see from the chart below , this recession was so bad that the CBO doesn ’ t expect payrolls to recover to the depth of the 2007-09 recession until 2021 .
It won ’ t recover to the depth of the 1980s recession @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse than most recessions on an absolute basis .
Economists view permanent job losses as a more important figure than headline job creation .
Even though the economy is recovering , because so many newly unemployed people viewed their job losses as temporary this spring , the job losses are only now starting to switch from temporary to permanent .
It ’ s a race against time as the quicker people get their jobs back , the fewer will lose their jobs altogether .
These workers who lose their jobs won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just that it can take many months to find a job in a weak economy .
It ’ s better if they never lose their jobs , just like it ’ s better if people get unemployment benefits instead of losing income for a significant chunk of time .
Even if you take a rosy look at the economy under a scenario where the Dems win and end the trade war , the stock market has a 20 PE .
If the benefits from de-escalating the trade war with China are too optimistic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expensive after a tax hike .
If taxes aren ’ t raised , stocks will be cheaper .
Stocks do better when neither party controls the government .
The S & P 500 has become a growth and quality factor investment .
So many jobs were lost , this recovery looks worse than most recessions .
The goal is to avoid employees and workers severing their relationships , forcing people to find a new job in a weak economy .

by UPFINA
Let’s start with the most obvious confusion. JP Morgan stated the consensus is if the Democrats win the 2020 election it will be bad for U.S. stocks, but they view it as “neutral to slight positive.” That does not compute with the chart below which shows their 2021 earnings projection if the Dems win. Even if you add $8.5 because of China tariff de-escalation and $1 in infrastructure spending, the net change is -$4. That’s confusing. This is emblematic of the stock market itself as negative news is being cast aside.
JPMORGAN: “The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive.” pic.twitter.com/8dFdx2IJ9Y — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 6, 2020
The great thing about markets is no one knows what is priced in. Sometimes there are extreme sentiment moves which don’t have anything to do with fundamentals. When people who act as analysts instead of investors try to rationalize prices, it’s like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. There are two options for these analysts: they either say the market isn’t pricing reality and bet against the trend or they come up with an excuse as to why the markets are up/down. You cannot ignore that markets can become dislocated from reality. You also can’t expect perfectly rational price action once you get involved in a trade. The fun part is you never know for sure if the market is crazy or if you are wrong.
The two lessons these analysts need to learn are the following: 1) if the market is acting irrationally, be flexible. Don’t go all in on a trade where the market makes no sense. Sometimes the best trade is to watch and do nothing. 2) you don’t need to rationalize the irrational. Anyone can come up with a narrative, but that doesn’t make it right.
If you assume JP Morgan’s election model is accurate, the S&P 500 is still trading at a 20 forward PE multiple as of Monday’s close. You need to lean heavily on low interest rates to justify such a high PE ratio. While stocks usually have a high PE ratio in recessions, this estimate is already expecting a solid rebound. Stocks should be expensive based on 2020 EPS, but not necessarily on 2021 EPS.
Investors Should Root For A Mixed 2020 Election
On the positive side, if the Democrats don’t win the Senate, a tax increase might not be passed. A tax hike could hurt S&P 500 EPS by $14; this isn’t a one time event. On the negative side, Joe Biden is running on being tough on China, so it won’t be smooth sailing on trade no matter who wins. De-escalation of the tariff war (if that happens) with China is projected to help 2021 EPS by $8.5. The infrastructure plan probably can pass no matter who wins the election. That will only help EPS by $1 though.
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Investors should always root for a mixed government because less extreme legislation gets passed when one party doesn’t control the Congress and White House. As you can see from the chart above, the S&P 500 has returned 17.2% per year since 1950 when there is a split Congress like there has been since 2018 when the Democrats won control of the House. GDP growth is irrelevant in this scenario because markets focus on certainty and because legislation that’s passed in a specific term doesn’t necessarily impact the economy right away. Markets react to news instantaneously.
S&P 500 Is A Quality Growth Index
The S&P 500 has transformed itself in the past 10 years. It has become a quality growth index. There’s less of a need to buy those factors. You can just buy the index because it’s so heavily weighted towards tech and healthcare (among others) as you can see from the chart below. Ironically, the S&P 500 could underperform if there is a cyclical upswing since it is low on cyclicals. It would be hurt by inflation and higher rates. Essentially, it would underperform or be hurt by a changing macro environment.
I've noted elsewhere that the S&P 500 has morphed into a quasi quality index, and that is somewhat illustrated here by this chart from BAML showing that so-called 'growth / defensive' sectors now make up close to 80% of it: h/t @ivan_brussels t.co/QwmoGhVgYc pic.twitter.com/WHTPCrGLa4 — Lawrence Hamtil (@lhamtil) July 5, 2020
Many tech investors think tech is doing well because growth companies are the future. There certainly is truth to that, but they are thriving in this environment because of low rates and low inflation. Investors are starved for growth. Energy and materials companies don’t do well with low commodity prices and banks don’t do well with low rates.
Labor Market Context
It would be incredibly bad if the labor market stopped improving because the unemployment rate is still above the peak in the last recession. As you can see from the chart below, this recession was so bad that the CBO doesn’t expect payrolls to recover to the depth of the 2007-09 recession until 2021. It won’t recover to the depth of the 1980s recession until late 2022. This recovery is worse than most recessions on an absolute basis.
Here's my entry for bad news chart of the day: pic.twitter.com/AwfW8lhPrM — Tara Sinclair (@TaraSinc) July 6, 2020
Economists view permanent job losses as a more important figure than headline job creation. Even though the economy is recovering, because so many newly unemployed people viewed their job losses as temporary this spring, the job losses are only now starting to switch from temporary to permanent. It’s a race against time as the quicker people get their jobs back, the fewer will lose their jobs altogether. These workers who lose their jobs won’t be permanently unemployed. It’s just that it can take many months to find a job in a weak economy. It’s better if they never lose their jobs, just like it’s better if people get unemployment benefits instead of losing income for a significant chunk of time.
Conclusion
Even if you take a rosy look at the economy under a scenario where the Dems win and end the trade war, the stock market has a 20 PE. If the benefits from de-escalating the trade war with China are too optimistic, the stock market could be extremely expensive after a tax hike. If taxes aren’t raised, stocks will be cheaper. Stocks do better when neither party controls the government. The S&P 500 has become a growth and quality factor investment. So many jobs were lost, this recovery looks worse than most recessions. The goal is to avoid employees and workers severing their relationships, forcing people to find a new job in a weak economy.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Fitch ratings: More countries to be junk than investment grade for first time

* Record number of credit rating cuts in last six months * More countries to be junk than investment grade @ @ @ @ @ debt-to-GDP to hit 95 % , has doubled over last decade

Fitch ratings:
* Record number of credit rating cuts in last six months
* More countries to be junk than investment grade for first time
* Global debt-to-GDP to hit 95%, has doubled over last decade
Thomson Reuters
— Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) July 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Financial analyst Gary Shilling says the stock market could see a 1930s-like decline

Some excerpts from the Gary Shilling guy that CNBC keeps shilling ( heh ) .
“ In June 2011 , @ @ @ @ @ drop in housing in 2012 with a resulting global recession .
In October 2012 he @ @ @ @ @ 2013 .
In August 2015 , he predicted that the price of oil “ is @ @ @ @ @ $ 20 per barrel ” ( it was $ 43/barrel at the time ) due @ @ @ @ @ and OPEC not limiting production .
Although cited frequently by various outlets as an expert @ @ @ @ @ called into question .
According to reporting by CBS News , Shilling ’ s predictions @ @ @ @ @ 38 % accuracy rating , much worse than random chance , by an analysis completed @ @ @ @ @ ”

Some excerpts from the Gary Shilling guy that CNBC keeps shilling (heh).

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“In June 2011, he predicted a 20% drop in housing in 2012 with a resulting global recession. In October 2012 he predicted a global recession in 2013. In August 2015, he predicted that the price of oil “is headed for $10 to $20 per barrel” (it was $43/barrel at the time) due to higher productivity through fracking and OPEC not limiting production. Although cited frequently by various outlets as an expert, his accuracy has been called into question. According to reporting by CBS News, Shilling’s predictions were found to have a 38% accuracy rating, much worse than random chance, by an analysis completed by CXO Advisory Group.”

www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/gary-shilling-says-the-stock-market-could-see-a-1930s-like-decline.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Costco refunded my 2-year 24hr fitness pass: never hurts to ask

Last November I thought I was getting a great deal by buying a pass from 24 fitness from Costco .
@ @ @ @ @ not anticipate a pandemic that would close gyms .
I had gotten a good 5 @ @ @ @ @ the pass , and I figured I was just out of luck .
Last week @ @ @ @ @ heck , maybe I ’ ll see if they can prorate the pass given that @ @ @ @ @ The CS person was super nice , said he would forward on the request and @ @ @ @ @ a problem .
Today I got a credit for the full amount .
Could not @ @ @ @ @ awesome .
I feel bad about the time I got to use the pass being @ @ @ @ @ that they stood by their refund policy .

by thatsamaro
Last November I thought I was getting a great deal by buying a pass from 24 fitness from Costco. Of course, I did not anticipate a pandemic that would close gyms. I had gotten a good 5 months of use out of the pass, and I figured I was just out of luck.
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Last week I figured, what the heck, maybe I’ll see if they can prorate the pass given that the gyms are closed. The CS person was super nice, said he would forward on the request and it shouldn’t be a problem. Today I got a credit for the full amount.
Could not believe it. Costco is awesome. I feel bad about the time I got to use the pass being refunded, but really grateful that they stood by their refund policy.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--As expected, and sadly, deaths are starting to pick up in the U.S.

As expected , and sadly , deaths are starting to pick up in the U.S .
Still lagging case growth @ @ @ @ @ which is certainly positive .
pic.twitter.com/0HzgqcYpFW

As expected, and sadly, deaths are starting to pick up in the U.S.
Still lagging case growth for the time being, which is certainly positive. pic.twitter.com/0HzgqcYpFW
— Jonesy (@HedgeyeDJ) July 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Schwab’s Insane Stakeholder Economics is Marxism in Sheep’s Clothing

QUESTION : It would please me if you would comment on the subject of “ Stakeholder Capitalism ” vis-a-vis this article from Forbes .
ANSWER : I have actually gone into detail on Schwab ’ s absolute Marxist philosophy of “ Stakeholder Economics ” economics where a corporation ’ s first loyalty is to the community and not the shareholders to the point it must even take care of the homeless .
This is the foundation or core objective of the World Economic Forum .
It is simply Marxism and it will fail in such a grand way , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Corporations are overtaxed for they pay taxes on income , then a dividend tax , and then the shareholder pays income tax on the dividend they receive .
The same income is already taxed three times just at the federal level .
Corporations are not charitable organizations and no government treats them in such a manner .
This nonsense of being fair is the same reasoning applied so many times and it has ALWAYS , without exception , destroy the economic system where it has been deployed – NO EXCEPTIONS !
!
!
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ I have personally met Klaus Schwab .
Sorry , I really see him as a serious threat to the world economy because he has built his following with the World Economic Forum which in itself is not allegedly known for its own transparency when it comes to its finances .
This Stakeholder Economics of Schwab is nothing more than Marxism in Sheep ’ s Clothing .
This is why he supports Piketty who champions communism arguing that the disparity of wealth is a big crisis .
That argument destroyed Argentina and reduced one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the start of the 20th century to one that had to ration beef for its own people like Russia .

by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: It would please me if you would comment on the subject of “Stakeholder Capitalism” vis-a-vis this article from Forbes.
PR
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ANSWER: I have actually gone into detail on Schwab’s absolute Marxist philosophy of “Stakeholder Economics” economics where a corporation’s first loyalty is to the community and not the shareholders to the point it must even take care of the homeless. This is the foundation or core objective of the World Economic Forum. It is simply Marxism and it will fail in such a grand way, it will completely destroy our economic system.
Corporations are overtaxed for they pay taxes on income, then a dividend tax, and then the shareholder pays income tax on the dividend they receive. The same income is already taxed three times just at the federal level. Corporations are not charitable organizations and no government treats them in such a manner. This nonsense of being fair is the same reasoning applied so many times and it has ALWAYS, without exception, destroy the economic system where it has been deployed – NO EXCEPTIONS!!!!!!!!
Yes, I have personally met Klaus Schwab. Sorry, I really see him as a serious threat to the world economy because he has built his following with the World Economic Forum which in itself is not allegedly known for its own transparency when it comes to its finances. This Stakeholder Economics of Schwab is nothing more than Marxism in Sheep’s Clothing. This is why he supports Piketty who champions communism arguing that the disparity of wealth is a big crisis. That argument destroyed Argentina and reduced one of the biggest producers of beef at the start of the 20th century to one that had to ration beef for its own people like Russia.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--TOTAL MARKET INSANITY: Toyota vs. Tesla

TOTAL MARKET INSANITY: Toyota vs. Tesla

The present market insanity reminds me of the similar mentality of Americans right before the 1929 stock market crash and the pre-1999 Tech Bubble .
However , the big difference today is that technology has destroyed the ability of investors to understand the meaning of VALUE .
The notion that technology makes the world better fails the test of time , especially when you read Joesph Tainter ’ s book , THE COLLAPSE OF COMPLEX SOCIETIES .
The new generation of millennials and even the baby-boomers have fallen HOOK , LINE , and SINKER for the glamour and glitter of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most Americans about our future energy predicament , their knee-jerk reply is that “ Technology will solve all of our problems.
” This is quite hilarious when , in fact , complex , sophisticated technology is a massive ENERGY BLACK HOLE .
The more technology we throw at a problem , the more energy is consumed .
Thus , this brings me to my comparison of Toyota Motors vs. Tesla Inc. Toyota was the largest auto manufacturer in the world in 2018 but was overtaken by Volkswagon last year .
Toyota didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but plans on rolling out ten new EV models in 2020 .
However , if we compare the market fundamentals for Toyota and Tesla , investors have gone completely insane .
Currently , Tesla ’ s market cap is worth $ 259 billion compared to $ 206 billion for Toyota .
Why did investors push Tesla ’ s stock up to $ 1,400 a share ( $ 259 billion market cap ) when its total revenues in 2019 were only a little more than Toyota ’ s net income profits ?
As you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion in net income profits on total revenues of $ 278 billion compared to Tesla ’ s $ 862 million net income loss on $ 24.3 billion in revenues .
Again , a perfect example of the investor mindset today .
Profits don ’ t matter , just technology , regardless if it continues to lose money .
And , if we look at the comparison of car sales , Tesla ’ s U.S. EV sales were only 8 % of Toyota ’ s North American sales in 2019 .
Toyota sold nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ units for Tesla .
However , these fundamentals don ’ t seem to register in the BRAINS of investors .
Instead , if we sprinkle a bit of TECHNOLOGY FAIRY DUST on something , everyone jumps aboard .
Lastly , Toyota ’ s more “ realistic ” stock performance versus Tesla ’ s “ super-inflated ” tech-noir valuation should be a major warning sign to investors , but it isn ’ t .
Tesla ’ s stock increased a mind-blowing 5766 % over the past ten years versus just 92 % for Toyota @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Toyota started trading at less than $ 20 a share in 1993 , it ’ s long-term performance is only 527 % : You will also notice that Toyota ’ s monthly volume for the first week of July is only 981,942 shares traded compared to the gargantuan 68 million for Tesla .
That ’ s just another clear indicator that the market has totally lost its marbles .
When the world heads firmly over the ENERGY CLIFF , technology will become more of a liability than an asset or solution .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out to be a BAD JOKE for humanity as we wasted a great deal of high-quality energy on Wind , Solar and EV ’ s that aren ’ t really green or renewable .

BY SRSROCCO
The present market insanity reminds me of the similar mentality of Americans right before the 1929 stock market crash and the pre-1999 Tech Bubble. However, the big difference today is that technology has destroyed the ability of investors to understand the meaning of VALUE. The notion that technology makes the world better fails the test of time, especially when you read Joesph Tainter’s book, THE COLLAPSE OF COMPLEX SOCIETIES.
The new generation of millennials and even the baby-boomers have fallen HOOK, LINE, and SINKER for the glamour and glitter of technology. So, if we ask most Americans about our future energy predicament, their knee-jerk reply is that “Technology will solve all of our problems.” This is quite hilarious when, in fact, complex, sophisticated technology is a massive ENERGY BLACK HOLE. The more technology we throw at a problem, the more energy is consumed.
Thus, this brings me to my comparison of Toyota Motors vs. Tesla Inc. Toyota was the largest auto manufacturer in the world in 2018 but was overtaken by Volkswagon last year. Toyota didn’t produce any electric cars in 2019 but plans on rolling out ten new EV models in 2020. However, if we compare the market fundamentals for Toyota and Tesla, investors have gone completely insane.
Currently, Tesla’s market cap is worth $259 billion compared to $206 billion for Toyota. Why did investors push Tesla’s stock up to $1,400 a share ($259 billion market cap) when its total revenues in 2019 were only a little more than Toyota’s net income profits? As you can see, Toyota posted $19 billion in net income profits on total revenues of $278 billion compared to Tesla’s $862 million net income loss on $24.3 billion in revenues.
Again, a perfect example of the investor mindset today. Profits don’t matter, just technology, regardless if it continues to lose money.
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And, if we look at the comparison of car sales, Tesla’s U.S. EV sales were only 8% of Toyota’s North American sales in 2019. Toyota sold nearly 2.4 million cars and trucks versus 192,500 units for Tesla.
However, these fundamentals don’t seem to register in the BRAINS of investors. Instead, if we sprinkle a bit of TECHNOLOGY FAIRY DUST on something, everyone jumps aboard.
Lastly, Toyota’s more “realistic” stock performance versus Tesla’s “super-inflated” tech-noir valuation should be a major warning sign to investors, but it isn’t. Tesla’s stock increased a mind-blowing 5766% over the past ten years versus just 92% for Toyota. Even if we go back when Toyota started trading at less than $20 a share in 1993, it’s long-term performance is only 527%:
You will also notice that Toyota’s monthly volume for the first week of July is only 981,942 shares traded compared to the gargantuan 68 million for Tesla. That’s just another clear indicator that the market has totally lost its marbles.
When the world heads firmly over the ENERGY CLIFF, technology will become more of a liability than an asset or solution. The entire Green Renewable Energy Fiasco will turn out to be a BAD JOKE for humanity as we wasted a great deal of high-quality energy on Wind, Solar and EV’s that aren’t really green or renewable.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--More than 20% of Businesses in Germany Fear Their Future Survival

The economic damage due to this fake coronavirus pandemic that has been touted as if it were the black plague is massive .
In Germany , 21 % of existing companies fear they will not survive .
The total damage that has been unleashed upon the world economy is beyond stupid if it were truly a mistake , but it is deliberate and intended to bring about their Great Reset .
This is what I would call a SOFT-Soviet Revolution , where these people think they can change the world economy without any problem .
The main goal is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ main person preventing this global coup .
While they claim that the president can not overrule governors , simultaneously they blame every death on Trump .
This is a massive campaign to overthrow Trump so they can then merge the USA into their global agenda .
Because Trump has private businesses , he would NEVER vote against his own self-interest .
Career politicians have nothing to return to except endless benefits paid for by the state .
That is a huge difference in why career politicians will NEVER defend the people .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I have to question if there will even be free elections post-2024 given what the computer is projecting .

by Martin Armstrong
The economic damage due to this fake coronavirus pandemic that has been touted as if it were the black plague is massive. In Germany, 21% of existing companies fear they will not survive. The total damage that has been unleashed upon the world economy is beyond stupid if it were truly a mistake, but it is deliberate and intended to bring about their Great Reset.
This is what I would call a SOFT-Soviet Revolution, where these people think they can change the world economy without any problem. The main goal is to REMOVE Trump who they see as the main person preventing this global coup. While they claim that the president cannot overrule governors, simultaneously they blame every death on Trump.
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This is a massive campaign to overthrow Trump so they can then merge the USA into their global agenda. Because Trump has private businesses, he would NEVER vote against his own self-interest. Career politicians have nothing to return to except endless benefits paid for by the state. That is a huge difference in why career politicians will NEVER defend the people.
This is their attempt to end democracy and I have to question if there will even be free elections post-2024 given what the computer is projecting.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Michigan’s Trojan Horse to Open the Door for Judges to Order People Be Implanted with Tracking Chips

I have a correction to make .
Gretchen Esther Whitmer is a Democrat serving as the 49th governor of Michigan .
When I first reported that a bill prohibiting employers from implanting chips into their employees , it did seem a bit strange that a Democrat would actually protect the people against this hidden agenda of Bill Gates and crew .
With the help of a reader , after obtaining the actual legislation , this appears to be a clever Trojan Horse .
It is true that this legislation bans employers from implanting a tracking chip into employees .
HOWEVER @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
!
!
!
If the employer gets a court order , then the employee must quit or accept being implanted by a chip to track them like a dog .
I will have to put my faith in Socrates .
It taught me how it predicts war and how empires , nations , and city-states collapse .
That is when the CIA came in and wanted me to build a version of Socrates for them after it forecast the collapse of Russia .
I declined , explaining it took me 17 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better things to do .
I offered to run any studies they wanted and that ’ s when it turned a bit nasty .
I was told that they HAD TO OWN IT !
I said no way .
While the press assumed the contempt was to turn over assets , they NEVER produced any list of assets to be turned over .
Instead , what they demanded was the source code which they kept out of the court documents .
Any lawyer will tell you that legally you can not be held @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you do this and you will be released .
After 7 years without any such order , I was released ONLY because I got into the Supreme Court .
I was fully prepared to die for my beliefs for that to me was a far better alternative to living in the hell these people take such pleasure in creating as an exercise of their raw power .
The leftists can not sleep at night worrying that someone is doing something they do not approve of .
They reject the Constitution and do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be free to pursue their own happiness for themselves or their family .
They can not stand that you have something they do not materialistically .
Everything that appeared in the movie “ The Forecaster ” had to be confirmed as true by Llyods of London who insured the film against slander and libel .
They can not make movies without such insurance .
Everything had to be documented right down to their off-the-record demand for the source code to Socrates .
So the bottom line is rather simple .
I have learned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for it is monitoring everything around the globe and it picks up subtle shifts and changes in the world economy .
If someone is going to invade , they will move their capital and assets in advance so as not to lose themselves .
I believe that Socrates has been picking up these subtle changes since the Repo Crisis began last August , which started the pressure for the collapse in the world Monetary System .
Granted , they may have been using our forecasts to pick the timing when to crash the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 2020 , to get the biggest bang for their bucks .
But they have accelerated the Paradigm Shift in shares/equities , which they did not understand , and was their first big mistake .
Indeed , 2015.75 was as forecast — the peak in government confidence which was followed by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump .
I believe that Socrates will be the only way to see the trend because this is beyond normal trading patterns we have seen even since the Great Depression .
What lies ahead is dark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they will win .
What Gretchen Whitmer has done is a Trojan Horse and it is part of their grand plan .
They know SOCIALISM is collapsing for they have reached the limit of perpetual borrowing with no intention of ever paying anything off .
They are restricting the printing and coining money under the pretense of social distancing .
The Democrats are absolutely desperate to get rid of Trump for they believe they must take control of the entire government and impose their draconian agenda to seize assets , raise taxes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to prevent an uprising .
These goals will unleash violence — not a panacea of unlimited power .

by Martin Armstrong
I have a correction to make. Gretchen Esther Whitmer is a Democrat serving as the 49th governor of Michigan. When I first reported that a bill prohibiting employers from implanting chips into their employees, it did seem a bit strange that a Democrat would actually protect the people against this hidden agenda of Bill Gates and crew. With the help of a reader, after obtaining the actual legislation, this appears to be a clever Trojan Horse.
Download Legislation: Michigan 2020-HIB-5672
It is true that this legislation bans employers from implanting a tracking chip into employees. HOWEVER, she included an EXCEPTION!!!!!! If the employer gets a court order, then the employee must quit or accept being implanted by a chip to track them like a dog.
I will have to put my faith in Socrates. It taught me how it predicts war and how empires, nations, and city-states collapse. That is when the CIA came in and wanted me to build a version of Socrates for them after it forecast the collapse of Russia. I declined, explaining it took me 17 years to build this system and I had better things to do. I offered to run any studies they wanted and that’s when it turned a bit nasty. I was told that they HAD TO OWN IT! I said no way.
While the press assumed the contempt was to turn over assets, they NEVER produced any list of assets to be turned over. Instead, what they demanded was the source code which they kept out of the court documents. Any lawyer will tell you that legally you cannot be held in contempt without an order that specifies you do this and you will be released. After 7 years without any such order, I was released ONLY because I got into the Supreme Court. I was fully prepared to die for my beliefs for that to me was a far better alternative to living in the hell these people take such pleasure in creating as an exercise of their raw power. The leftists cannot sleep at night worrying that someone is doing something they do not approve of. They reject the Constitution and do not believe that we have any right to be free to pursue their own happiness for themselves or their family. They cannot stand that you have something they do not materialistically.
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Everything that appeared in the movie “The Forecaster” had to be confirmed as true by Llyods of London who insured the film against slander and libel. They cannot make movies without such insurance. Everything had to be documented right down to their off-the-record demand for the source code to Socrates.
So the bottom line is rather simple. I have learned that Socrates is able to forecast war for it is monitoring everything around the globe and it picks up subtle shifts and changes in the world economy. If someone is going to invade, they will move their capital and assets in advance so as not to lose themselves. I believe that Socrates has been picking up these subtle changes since the Repo Crisis began last August, which started the pressure for the collapse in the world Monetary System.
Granted, they may have been using our forecasts to pick the timing when to crash the market with the ECM starting January 18, 2020, to get the biggest bang for their bucks. But they have accelerated the Paradigm Shift in shares/equities, which they did not understand, and was their first big mistake. Indeed, 2015.75 was as forecast — the peak in government confidence which was followed by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump.
I believe that Socrates will be the only way to see the trend because this is beyond normal trading patterns we have seen even since the Great Depression. What lies ahead is dark and sinister. That does not mean they will win. What Gretchen Whitmer has done is a Trojan Horse and it is part of their grand plan. They know SOCIALISM is collapsing for they have reached the limit of perpetual borrowing with no intention of ever paying anything off. They are restricting the printing and coining money under the pretense of social distancing.
The Democrats are absolutely desperate to get rid of Trump for they believe they must take control of the entire government and impose their draconian agenda to seize assets, raise taxes to absurd levels, and oppress the people to prevent an uprising. These goals will unleash violence — not a panacea of unlimited power.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Florida still not reporting how many hospitalized with COVID. DeSantis won’t say why.

Under pressure last week as COVID-19 hospitalizations soared in Florida , Gov .
Ron DeSantis ’ office said the state would start reporting daily hospitalization data for all 67 counties .
DeSantis on Tuesday , however , refused to address the fact that the state has yet to make good on its promise when asked by a Miami Herald reporter .
“ Obviously not everything is presented in this report but just an unbelievable amount of data is available , ” DeSantis said at an indoor press conference held at Florida ’ s 12th COVID-only nursing facility near Miami International @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a follow-up question from CNN correspondent Rosa Flores as to why the state does not publish daily hospitalization data .
Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez , who sat next to DeSantis at the Tuesday event , ordered hospitals in the county to report patient admissions , ICU capacity , ventilator inventory and other data every day starting on April 4 .
The number of people entering hospitals each day for COVID-19 is key data that public health experts monitor to measure the potential strain on hospital systems and the seriousness of the disease @ @ @ @

Under pressure last week as COVID-19 hospitalizations soared in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office said the state would start reporting daily hospitalization data for all 67 counties.
DeSantis on Tuesday, however, refused to address the fact that the state has yet to make good on its promise when asked by a Miami Herald reporter.
“Obviously not everything is presented in this report but just an unbelievable amount of data is available,” DeSantis said at an indoor press conference held at Florida’s 12th COVID-only nursing facility near Miami International Airport.
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He did not respond to a follow-up question from CNN correspondent Rosa Flores as to why the state does not publish daily hospitalization data.
Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who sat next to DeSantis at the Tuesday event, ordered hospitals in the county to report patient admissions, ICU capacity, ventilator inventory and other data every day starting on April 4. The number of people entering hospitals each day for COVID-19 is key data that public health experts monitor to measure the potential strain on hospital systems and the seriousness of the disease’s resurgence.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-still-not-reporting-how-many-hospitalized-with-covid-desantis-wont-say-why/ar-BB16sfEO


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Congress Sells Out U S Troops, Refusing To Again End Afghanistan War

While the New York Times and other media outlets are deeply concerned about evidence lacking and unverified reports of Russian @ @ @ @ @ they all but ignore that the U.S. Congress has once again sold out U.S. troops @ @ @ @ @ refuses to bring them home from Afghanistan .
This , despite the publication of the @ @ @ @ @ that the 18 year war has always been un-winnable and yet the public has been @ @ @ @ @ war .

Truth in Media, Released on 7/7/20
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While the New York Times and other media outlets are deeply concerned about evidence lacking and unverified reports of Russian bounties on U.S. troops, they all but ignore that the U.S. Congress has once again sold out U.S. troops in a new vote that refuses to bring them home from Afghanistan. This, despite the publication of the Afghanistan War papers which prove that the 18 year war has always been un-winnable and yet the public has been repeatedly lied to about the war.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Tesla’s Moonshot, How High Can It Go?

Tesla’s Moonshot, How High Can It Go?

Tesla ’ s Moonshot , How High Can It Go ?
Since the beginning of 2020 , the aggregate market cap of the twelve largest automakers is up 9.30 % to $ 803 billion .
Quite an increase considering the COVID pandemic is causing a global recession and weak auto sales .
The obvious question is , why is the auto sector doing so well amid such uncertainty ?
The optics are “ driven ” by one stock , Tesla ( TSLA ) .
TSLA ’ s stock price continues its moonshot while other automakers languish .
The gross divergence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exploring .
As has always been the mandate of our articles , we look at data on auto sales , industry trends , and demographics to help you come to your conclusion about Tesla and the auto industry .
This , in turn , allows you to assess Tesla better independently .
According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers , global vehicle sales have grown annually at 0.37 % over the last five years .
Sales over the previous 15 years are quite a bit stronger at 2.20 % .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broken down by passenger and commercial vehicles .
The following table shows growth rates and the percentage of global sales for the four largest auto markets .
Bottom line : auto sales over the last five years are tepid at best .
To put sales into a different context , it ’ s worth comparing them to economic activity .
Over the last 15 years and five years , global GDP has grown annually 4.17 % and 3.14 % , respectively .
Auto sales are not keeping up with global growth .
China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bright light for the industry .
However , as shown below , sales of vehicles in China are leveling off .
With China ’ s economic growth slowing considerably , and auto ownership more saturated , China ’ s appetite for autos will remain weak .
Without an obvious geographic region to replace China , the industry must rely on changes in consumer behaviors and preferences .
Baby Boomers are retiring in droves and need fewer automobiles .
Can the newest drivers , Millennials and Generation Z pick up the slack ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2012 entitled Why Don ’ t Young Americans Buy Cars ?
While the article is dated is still rings true .
Here are some key quotes about the Millennial generation ’ s desire to buy cars : Kids these days .
They don ’ t get married .
They don ’ t buy homes .
And , much to the dismay of the world ’ s auto makers , they apparently don ’ t feel a deep and abiding urge to own a car .
The Times notes that less than half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a license in 2008 , down from nearly two-thirds in 1998 .
The fraction of 20-to-24-year-olds with a license has also dropped .
And according to CNW research , adults between the ages of 21 and 34 buy just 27 percent of all new vehicles sold in America , a far cry from the peak of 38 percent in 1985 .
At a major conference last year , Toyota USA President Jim Lentz offered up a fairly doleful summary of the industry ’ s challenge .
“ We have to face the growing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t seem to be as interested in cars as previous generations , ” Lentz said .
“ Many young people care more about buying the latest smart phone or gaming console than getting their driver ’ s license.
” The next generation , Gen Z , currently aged 5-25 are starting to buy cars .
As such , it is early to define Generation Z ’ s car buying preferences .
However , they are being shown to be frugal with big-ticket items .
Data shows that their buying habits are similar to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make sense given their existing student debt obligations and relatively low wages .
For an in-depth discussion of generational tendencies we highly recommend Generations and The Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss ( LINK ) .
As if generational shifts are not enough trouble for the industry , ridesharing companies may be worse .
Uber and Lyft make it easy to avoid car ownership .
What taxis did for car ownership in New York City , ride-sharing services are doing in many urban and suburban regions .
( In Manhattan , less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That compares to an average of 1.88 vehicles per U.S .
household . )
The cost/benefit analysis of owning a car has changed , and it ’ s not to the benefit of the auto manufacturers .
Autonomous ridesharing services in the future will only make this problem more acute .
The recent pace of car sales is weak and below economic trends .
Global economics argues there is no clear replacement for China ’ s growth of years past .
Demographics do not favor the industry .
So , why is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during a recession ?
As shown below , Tesla ’ s market cap has risen 244 % this year .
The market cap of the industry , excluding Tesla , is down 17 % .
The table leads to a straightforward question .
Is Tesla becoming an automotive behemoth and leaving its competition in the dust ?
The graph below comparing sales and market cap puts context around that question .
As shown , Tesla ’ s sales are a fraction of every other major manufacturer .
By default , investors must think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Meanwhile , deliveries have been flat since the third quarter of 2018 .
If Tesla shareholders are correct , Tesla must garner at least 25-30 % of the market share .
Can TSLA justify the combined market cap of GM , Fiat/Chrysler , Honda , BMW , Nissan , Hyundai , Mercedes , and Ford ?
Before you answer , understand they currently make only about 2 % of the cars as those other manufacturers .
Tesla certainly has a valuable first starter advantage in the electric vehicle ( EV ) category .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have patents .
Its advantage exists because other manufacturers have been slow to release EV cars .
The technology is easy to replicate .
Whether they are waiting for costs to decline , longer battery life , persistently higher gas prices , or more robust demand , we don ’ t know .
Nonetheless , the wait will not be much longer .
Most auto manufacturers have lines of EVs due out this year and next .
Many will come at prices cheaper than those Tesla offers .
Unlike Tesla , they offer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tesla ’ s first mover advantage is slipping away quickly .
For Tesla ’ s market cap to be correct , the following must be true : • They must continue to dominate the EV space • Other manufacturers must be incapable of producing competitive EVs TSLA ’ s stock may run higher .
We believe its stock price is in the grips of speculative fervor and passive investing momentum .
These conditions may last longer .
We do not know when Tesla ’ s moonshot will end .
However , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unusually swift and vicious .
Afterward , it can take years and even decades before an investor breaks even .
Just consider it took Microsoft 15 years to regain the record highs of 2000 .
At that time , Microsoft had strong fundamentals and a dominant market position .
Not so much .

by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott
Tesla’s Moonshot, How High Can It Go? Since the beginning of 2020, the aggregate market cap of the twelve largest automakers is up 9.30% to $803 billion. Quite an increase considering the COVID pandemic is causing a global recession and weak auto sales. The obvious question is, why is the auto sector doing so well amid such uncertainty? It’s not! The optics are “driven” by one stock, Tesla (TSLA). TSLA’s stock price continues its moonshot while other automakers languish. The gross divergence of fortunes in the industry is worth exploring. As has always been the mandate of our articles, we look at data on auto sales, industry trends, and demographics to help you come to your conclusion about Tesla and the auto industry. This, in turn, allows you to assess Tesla better independently. Auto Industry According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, global vehicle sales have grown annually at 0.37% over the last five years. Sales over the previous 15 years are quite a bit stronger at 2.20%. The graph below highlights total global auto sales broken down by passenger and commercial vehicles. The following table shows growth rates and the percentage of global sales for the four largest auto markets. Bottom line: auto sales over the last five years are tepid at best. To put sales into a different context, it’s worth comparing them to economic activity. Over the last 15 years and five years, global GDP has grown annually 4.17% and 3.14%, respectively. Auto sales are not keeping up with global growth. China has increased car ownership significantly and is the bright light for the industry. However, as shown below, sales of vehicles in China are leveling off. With China’s economic growth slowing considerably, and auto ownership more saturated, China’s appetite for autos will remain weak. Without an obvious geographic region to replace China, the industry must rely on changes in consumer behaviors and preferences. Demographics
Baby Boomers are retiring in droves and need fewer automobiles. Can the newest drivers, Millennials and Generation Z pick up the slack?
The Atlantic wrote an article in March 2012 entitled Why Don’t Young Americans Buy Cars? While the article is dated is still rings true. Here are some key quotes about the Millennial generation’s desire to buy cars:
Kids these days. They don’t get married. They don’t buy homes. And, much to the dismay of the world’s auto makers, they apparently don’t feel a deep and abiding urge to own a car. The Times notes that less than half of potential drivers age 19 or younger had a license in 2008, down from nearly two-thirds in 1998. The fraction of 20-to-24-year-olds with a license has also dropped. And according to CNW research, adults between the ages of 21 and 34 buy just 27 percent of all new vehicles sold in America, a far cry from the peak of 38 percent in 1985. At a major conference last year, Toyota USA President Jim Lentz offered up a fairly doleful summary of the industry’s challenge. “We have to face the growing reality that today young people don’t seem to be as interested in cars as previous generations,” Lentz said. “Many young people care more about buying the latest smart phone or gaming console than getting their driver’s license.”
The next generation, Gen Z, currently aged 5-25 are starting to buy cars. As such, it is early to define Generation Z’s car buying preferences. However, they are being shown to be frugal with big-ticket items. Data shows that their buying habits are similar to the millennial generation. This seems to make sense given their existing student debt obligations and relatively low wages.
For an in-depth discussion of generational tendencies we highly recommend Generations and The Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss (LINK).
Ridesharing
As if generational shifts are not enough trouble for the industry, ridesharing companies may be worse. Uber and Lyft make it easy to avoid car ownership.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What taxis did for car ownership in New York City, ride-sharing services are doing in many urban and suburban regions. (In Manhattan, less than a quarter of households own a car. That compares to an average of 1.88 vehicles per U.S. household.)
The cost/benefit analysis of owning a car has changed, and it’s not to the benefit of the auto manufacturers. Autonomous ridesharing services in the future will only make this problem more acute.
Why Are Valuations Rising?
The recent pace of car sales is weak and below economic trends. Global economics argues there is no clear replacement for China’s growth of years past. Demographics do not favor the industry. So, why is the aggregate value of auto companies rising during a recession?
As shown below, Tesla’s market cap has risen 244% this year. The market cap of the industry, excluding Tesla, is down 17%.
The table leads to a straightforward question. Is Tesla becoming an automotive behemoth and leaving its competition in the dust?
The graph below comparing sales and market cap puts context around that question.
As shown, Tesla’s sales are a fraction of every other major manufacturer. By default, investors must think their future sales trajectory is enormous. Meanwhile, deliveries have been flat since the third quarter of 2018.
Courtesy @teslacharts
If Tesla shareholders are correct, Tesla must garner at least 25-30% of the market share.
Can TSLA justify the combined market cap of GM, Fiat/Chrysler, Honda, BMW, Nissan, Hyundai, Mercedes, and Ford? Before you answer, understand they currently make only about 2% of the cars as those other manufacturers.
Tesla’s Advantage… For Now
Tesla certainly has a valuable first starter advantage in the electric vehicle (EV) category. Notably, however, they do not have patents.
Its advantage exists because other manufacturers have been slow to release EV cars. The technology is easy to replicate. Whether they are waiting for costs to decline, longer battery life, persistently higher gas prices, or more robust demand, we don’t know. Nonetheless, the wait will not be much longer.
Most auto manufacturers have lines of EVs due out this year and next. Many will come at prices cheaper than those Tesla offers. Unlike Tesla, they offer their clients service shops and trade ins. Tesla’s first mover advantage is slipping away quickly.
For Tesla’s market cap to be correct, the following must be true:
They must continue to dominate the EV space
EVs must gain significantly in popularity
Other manufacturers must be incapable of producing competitive EVs
That a tall order!
Summary – Momentum Rules
TSLA’s stock may run higher. We believe its stock price is in the grips of speculative fervor and passive investing momentum. These conditions may last longer.
We do not know when Tesla’s moonshot will end. However, as we learned in 2001, the end is unusually swift and vicious. Afterward, it can take years and even decades before an investor breaks even. Just consider it took Microsoft 15 years to regain the record highs of 2000. At that time, Microsoft had strong fundamentals and a dominant market position.
Tesla?
Not so much.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--CORONAVIRUS Covid-19. Defend Yourself. Avoid Contagion. Protect Your Home

A virus is a submicroscopic infectious agent that replicates only inside the living cells of an organism.Viruses can infect all types of life forms , from animals and plants to microorganisms , including bacteria and archaea .
Since Dmitri Ivanovsky ’ s 1892 article describing a non-bacterial pathogen infecting tobacco plants , and the discovery of the tobacco mosaic virus by Martinus Beijerinck in 1898 , more than 6,000 virus species have been described in detail , ] of the millions of types of viruses in the environment.Viruses are found in almost every ecosystem on Earth and are the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study of viruses is known as virology , a subspeciality of microbiology .
When infected , a host cell is forced to rapidly produce thousands of identical copies of the original virus .
When not inside an infected cell or in the process of infecting a cell , viruses exist in the form of independent particles , or virions , consisting of : ( i ) the genetic material , i.e .
long molecules of DNA or RNA that encode the structure of the proteins by which the virus acts ; ( ii @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which surrounds and protects the genetic material ; and in some cases ( iii ) an outside envelope of lipids .
The shapes of these virus particles range from simple helical and icosahedral forms to more complex structures .
Most virus species have virions too small to be seen with an optical microscope as they are one hundredth the size of most bacteria .
The origins of viruses in the evolutionary history of life are unclear : some may have evolved from plasmids—pieces of DNA that can move between cells—while others may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , viruses are an important means of horizontal gene transfer , which increases genetic diversity in a way analogous to sexual reproduction .
Viruses are considered by some biologists to be a life form , because they carry genetic material , reproduce , and evolve through natural selection , although they lack the key characteristics such as cell structure that are generally considered necessary criteria for life .
Because they possess some but not all such qualities , viruses have been described as “ organisms at the edge of life ” , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways .
One transmission pathway is through disease-bearing organisms known as vectors : for example , viruses are often transmitted from plant to plant by insects that feed on plant sap , such as aphids ; and viruses in animals can be carried by blood-sucking insects .
Influenza viruses are spread by coughing and sneezing .
Norovirus and rotavirus , common causes of viral gastroenteritis , are transmitted by the faecal–oral route , passed by hand-to-mouth contact or in food or water .
The infectious dose of norovirus required to produce infection in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HIV is one of several viruses transmitted through sexual contact and by exposure to infected blood .
The variety of host cells that a virus can infect is called its “ host range ” .
This can be narrow , meaning a virus is capable of infecting few species , or broad , meaning it is capable of infecting many .
“ CORONAVIRUS Covid-19 .
Defend Yourself .
Avoid Contagion .
Protect Your Home , Your Family .
China declared the presence of a new contagious and potentially deadly coronavirus .
After a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on exceptional dimensions .
There are over a thousand deaths .
The outbreak has spread to over fifty countries outside of China .
Only the knowledge of the danger can help to overcome it , therefore there is a great need for clear information .
Often , however , we receive fragmented information , seasoned with technical terminologies or distorted by the disinformers who infest the web .
This book was written to be understood .
The author is an expert communicator in the field of scientific subjects .
The emergence and declaration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evoked an unprecedented reaction from the global community that lead countries to enforce lockdowns and movement restrictions .
At the IPPC level , these containment measures significantly affected its major pre-planned global events and activities at various levels , including the convening of the CPM-15 and it ’ s ministerial segment and the promotion of the IYPH 2020 , which was declared by UNGA in December 2018 .
To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the planned events , the IPPC is critically considering rescheduling its major pre-planned global events coupled with intensification @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global activities when feasible .
Plants are a primary source of income for nearly half of the global population and make up 80 % of the food we eat .
The current COVID-19 outbreak experience highlights the need to ensure that plants are protected from the ravages of plant pests .
One of the potential consequences of this global emergency is the possibility of disrupted trade and compromised access to a safe and stable supply of food .
Therefore , ensuring safe supply of fresh food and protecting plants from pests is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is affecting human health worldwide , plant pests and diseases continue to pose a threat to food production .
It is particularly important at this time to remember that a threat to plant health is a threat to the health and prosperity of people , especially the most vulnerable .
In this critical situation , we are all vulnerable and protecting plant health becomes vital for our own wellbeing .
This is the noble goal for which the IPPC was created , as expressed by the IYPH slogan : “ protecting plants , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not take passports when moving from one country to another .
With globalization and the resulting increase in international travel and trade , plant pests and diseases of different kinds are more likely to be moved across borders with consignments and travelers and spread unintentionally at alarming rates .
The current COVID-19 outbreak is showing us that the world must be extra careful with travel of people and be ready to tackle any emergency .
In the area of plant health we must also facilitate the safe trade of plants , plant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea containers that can allow pests to be spread .
Detection or quarantine are indispensable security measures to contain an epidemic – be it a human , animal or plant health emergency .
The IPPC Secretariat also suggests making use of the IPPC electronic certification ( ePhyto ) wherever possible .
NPPOs and inspection staff may refer to the WHO and FAO official guidance .
The COVID-19 global outbreak is showing the world how adopting preventive measures is essential to secure countries from the introduction and spread of devastating human diseases and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ animals and plants .
Application of science-based preventive actions , including quarantine measures to contain invasive virus threats are indispensable to protect the health of people , animals and plants alike .
Quarantine staff or Inspectors of consignments at the borders may be exposed to sanitary risks that are not addressed .
For health and safety concerns regarding consignments , please refer to the WHO guidelines on how to protect human health during the COVID-19 outbreak : Global coordination is essential to tackle COVID-19 .
It is time for the international community to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The international community must take notice and develop a rapid and coordinated response .
Adopting divergent measures could be even more catastrophic for countries living in an emergency .
Prevention , Preparedness , Public health , Political leadership and People are the top 5 P-words the WHO DG called the world to focus on when considering this COVID-19 pandemic .
The plant health community can learn a lot from this and that is why it is important for countries to follow the IPPC International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures when setting their national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a global level .
Sharing knowledge and best practices is essential to face global crises and combat common enemies .
We strongly encourage you to take technically justified measures to protect Plant Health as another warning from the current emergency .
Your immune system is responsible for responding when you are exposed to viruses and bacteria , when you have a cut or a broken bone , or when your cells begin to change in an abnormal way , as in the early stages of cancer .
It also plays the vital role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ body and leaving them alone , and quickly recognizing and eliminating foreign proteins from a bacteria or virus .
The immune system is also responsible for inflammation , the natural process that occurs in response to injury .
Inflammation is incredibly important to initiate healing , but too much of it can be detrimental and is linked to heart disease , diabetes , cancer and many other illnesses .
The immune system has a very complex job to do .
I like to think of this system as an orchestra , in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and if one is not functioning at its best , it can throw everything off and quickly turn a symphony into chaos .
The key to a functional , strong immune system is balance—keeping the immune system calm and happy on a daily basis , and ensuring it is primed and ready to respond when needed .
Healthy immune function starts with what you feed your body .
Plant foods tend to be anti-inflammatory , so consuming lots of fruits , vegetables and whole grains is an important aspect of good immune function @ @ @ @ @ @ @ linked obesity with impaired immune response , so a plant-based diet can do double-duty to support immune function by also helping you maintain a healthy weight .
Regular exercise and managing your stress are also essential aspects of a strong immune system .
Certain herbs can help support your immune system on a long-term basis .
Garlic is full of compounds like allicin , ajoene and thiosulfinates , powerful molecules that help your body prevent and fight infections .
Garlic also has a rich history of being used topically to disinfect wounds and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use garlic for immune support is to consume fresh , crushed garlic .
While you may not be daring enough to chomp raw garlic , adding raw garlic to a sauce or pesto is a good and flavorful way to get it in your body .
Horseradish , cayenne and ginger are all considered “ blood movers ” in Chinese medicine .
They stimulate blood flow and , as you might imagine , can kill off many microbes .
It is thought that the consumption of spicy foods , including those seasoned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ward off digestive infections .
Oregano and thyme are also full of aromatic compounds ( the essential oils that make the plants smell so wonderful ) that also have potent antimicrobial action .
They can be consumed as a culinary spice or as a tea , inhaled to deliver the herbs to the sinuses or lungs ( see Steamy Support for Sinuses ) , or taken in capsules if a stronger medicine is needed .
To take immune support to the next level , consider taking some of these immune boosters on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fall and winter months : mushrooms like shiitake , reishi , chaga and cordyceps , as well as botanicals such as astragalus , elderberry and ashwagandha .
Ashwagandha ( Withania somniferia ) , along with many of these herbs , is also an adpatogen , which is a word for a natural substance that helps the body adapt to stress .
See Fresh Clips : All About Adaptogens to learn more about adaptogens .
Though not an herb , we include mushrooms because they are potent allies in the quest for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maitake , shiitake , reishi and chaga all contain a complex array of nutrients that help to support good immune function .
These include complex polysaccharides which appear to act as immunomodulators–this means they can stimulate an underactive immune system and calm an overactive immune system , acting as immune balancers .
The best-studied polysaccharide is called beta-D-glucan .
This complex sugar is well-absorbed when mushrooms are consumed and is currently being studied for its potential role in treating cancer , HIV and AIDS .
It is thought to work by stimulating specialized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neutrophils ) which can recognize and kill tumor cells , remove damage caused by free radicals , speed up recovery of damaged tissue , and activate other immune responses when necessary .
Research has shown that medicinal mushrooms also can help prevent white blood cell diminishment in people given chemotherapy and radiation , and can elevate antibody levels ( proteins that help identify foreign invaders ) in healthy people .
Shiitake mushrooms are available at most grocery stores and are a delicious way to incorporate mushrooms into your food .
Sometimes labeled “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ substituted in any recipe that calls for button mushrooms to increase the healthfulness of the meal .
Traditionally , mushrooms are decocted , or simmered , for hours to brew a strong tea .
I recommend brewing a large batch and freezing the mushroom tea , which can be added to broths , soups and other foods when cooking .
Astragalus contains many compounds similar to the medicinal mushrooms .
I will often add astragalus to immune preparations to take regularly as a preventive .
Take a look at this collection The Lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ word out of a circa 1845 manual .
What is The Lost Book of Remedies ?
The Lost Book of Remedies PDF contains a series of medicinal and herbal recipes to make home made remedies from medicinal plants and herbs .
Chromic diseases and maladies can be overcome by taking the remedies outlined in this book .
The writer claims that his grandfather was taught herbalism and healing whilst in active service during world war two and that he has treated many soldiers with his home made cures .
If you happen to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infection , herbs can provide a lot of relief .
The following herbs , including elderberry , echinacea , goldenseal and andrographis , are some of my favorites for when you ’ re hit with illness .
Elderberry ( Sambucus nigra ) is probably the most delicious herb used to support a strong immune system .
Elderberry has been used for centuries to treat colds , flu and other viral infections .
Native to Europe , Asia and North America , it can tolerate a wide variety of growing conditions .
The blue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flowers , are used to make syrup or are taken dried as a food .
Elderberries are a great source of vitamins A , B and C , and contain a high level of flavonoids , anti-inflammatory compounds that can promote healthy cell function .
Elderberry has been studied for its antiviral effects .
Several studies have demonstrated that people who consumed elderberry syrup ( 1 tablespoon daily ) had a lower incidence of viral infection than those who did not .
Also , people who took elderberry syrup at the onset of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ duration of illness than those who did not .
The best thing about elderberry is that it is truly delicious and is very safe , even in children and the elderly .
Elderberry syrup is conventionally available , and can be eaten right off the spoon , or used more exotically .
In our household , we drizzle it over oatmeal or add it to seltzer water for a delicious elderberry spritzer .
Echinacea and goldenseal , often paired together , are probably the best-known herbs for immune support , especially for acute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have found that echinacea taken orally stimulates the function of a variety of immune cells .
Although contradictory evidence exists , most studies suggest that the correct varieties of echinacea can speed the recovery from the common cold by stimulating the immune system to respond faster and better ( versus killing the virus directly ) .
Many beautiful varieties of echinacea abound , but the medicine is in E. purpurea or E. angustifolia .
Research studies looking at echinacea as a preventive herb seem to be mostly negative .
This suggests that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it only when needed , or when illness strikes .
Echinacea is most often used as a tincture ( about 1 teaspoon three times daily ) or as an encapsulated herb taken immediately when you are coming down with a viral infection .
Goldenseal has always been thought to have direct antibacterial and antiviral action , although research has demonstrated that its action is more diverse than that .
The antimicrobial action comes from a compound called berberine , which is present in goldenseal and many related plants .
It is thought that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of mucous membranes , making your nose and mouth more effective at warding off microbes .
Because of goldenseal ’ s popularity , it has become overharvested in the wild and is now at risk for becoming an endangered species .
I recommend only sourcing goldenseal from companies that farm their own , or avoid its use altogether and choose different herbs for immune support .
Few people have heard of andrographis , an herb native to India and Sri Lanka , but it is the herb with the best research in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ andrographis have demonstrated that it can be used to successfully reduce the severity of the common cold .
It also has been demonstrated to prevent the onset of a cold in healthy people .
It is thought that andrographis can stimulate many types of immune cells to jump into action and fight off viral invaders .
Look for a product that contains andrographolides , the active constituents in andrographis , and take enough to get 15 to 20 mg of andrographolides per dose , dosed three times daily .
To deliver immune-boosting herbs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consider an herbal steam .
Herbal steams are great for respiratory conditions that affect your nose , throat and lungs .
To make an herbal steam , bring 4 to 6 cups of water to a boil and then remove from heat .
Add 1 to 5 drops essential oil to hot water .
Hold your head about 12 to 18 inches above the pot and drape a towel over your head to make a tent .
Breathe deeply for 5 to 10 minutes to give yourself a wonderful , healing treatment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ using essential oils dropped onto a shelf in a hot shower or bath .
The steam will pick up the oils and deliver them in a less concentrated , gentler way .
Consider using one or more of the following : Thyme : Contains potent antiviral and antibacterial properties delivered right to the lungs and sinuses .
Eucalyptus : The herb of choice to clear congestion Lavender : A calming , soothing aromatic that also delivers antimicrobial action to an irritated respiratory tract .
When preparing yourself for the winter months , think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three ways : • Follow a healthy lifestyle that allows your immune system to thrive .
Base your diet around fruits , vegetables and whole grains .
Decrease your intake of refined foods , sugar and alcohol , all of which have been shown to decrease resistance to infection .
Get lots of fresh air and regular exercise to promote healthy immune function , and keep your stress level as low as possible .
• Consider adding to your regime herbs that can support healthy immune function .
These may include culinary herbs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ginger , cayenne , oregano , thyme or mushrooms .
You also might consider using elderberry through the fall and winter for an extra preventive boost .
• When needed , turn to your botanical powerhouses .
Use andrographis , echinacea and elderberry in higher doses to combat illness and help shorten your suffering when exposed to a viral infection .

by Amy S.
What are Virus
A virus is a submicroscopic infectious agent that replicates only inside the living cells of an organism.Viruses can infect all types of life forms, from animals and plants to microorganisms, including bacteria and archaea. Since Dmitri Ivanovsky’s 1892 article describing a non-bacterial pathogen infecting tobacco plants, and the discovery of the tobacco mosaic virus by Martinus Beijerinck in 1898, more than 6,000 virus species have been described in detail,] of the millions of types of viruses in the environment.Viruses are found in almost every ecosystem on Earth and are the most numerous type of biological entity. The study of viruses is known as virology, a subspeciality of microbiology.
When infected, a host cell is forced to rapidly produce thousands of identical copies of the original virus. When not inside an infected cell or in the process of infecting a cell, viruses exist in the form of independent particles, or virions, consisting of: (i) the genetic material, i.e. long molecules of DNA or RNA that encode the structure of the proteins by which the virus acts; (ii) a protein coat, the capsid, which surrounds and protects the genetic material; and in some cases (iii) an outside envelope of lipids. The shapes of these virus particles range from simple helical and icosahedral forms to more complex structures. Most virus species have virions too small to be seen with an optical microscope as they are one hundredth the size of most bacteria.
The origins of viruses in the evolutionary history of life are unclear: some may have evolved from plasmids—pieces of DNA that can move between cells—while others may have evolved from bacteria. In evolution, viruses are an important means of horizontal gene transfer, which increases genetic diversity in a way analogous to sexual reproduction. Viruses are considered by some biologists to be a life form, because they carry genetic material, reproduce, and evolve through natural selection, although they lack the key characteristics such as cell structure that are generally considered necessary criteria for life. Because they possess some but not all such qualities, viruses have been described as “organisms at the edge of life”, and as self-replicators.
Viruses spread in many ways. One transmission pathway is through disease-bearing organisms known as vectors: for example, viruses are often transmitted from plant to plant by insects that feed on plant sap, such as aphids; and viruses in animals can be carried by blood-sucking insects. Influenza viruses are spread by coughing and sneezing. Norovirus and rotavirus, common causes of viral gastroenteritis, are transmitted by the faecal–oral route, passed by hand-to-mouth contact or in food or water. The infectious dose of norovirus required to produce infection in humans is less than 100 particles. HIV is one of several viruses transmitted through sexual contact and by exposure to infected blood. The variety of host cells that a virus can infect is called its “host range”. This can be narrow, meaning a virus is capable of infecting few species, or broad, meaning it is capable of infecting many.
China declared the presence of a new contagious and potentially deadly coronavirus. After a month, the epidemic has already taken on exceptional dimensions. There are over a thousand deaths. The outbreak has spread to over fifty countries outside of China. Only the knowledge of the danger can help to overcome it, therefore there is a great need for clear information. Often, however, we receive fragmented information, seasoned with technical terminologies or distorted by the disinformers who infest the web. This book was written to be understood. The author is an expert communicator in the field of scientific subjects.
Overview on General Impacts and Mitigation Strategies.
The emergence and declaration of COVID-19 as pandemic in early 2020 evoked an unprecedented reaction from the global community that lead countries to enforce lockdowns and movement restrictions. At the IPPC level, these containment measures significantly affected its major pre-planned global events and activities at various levels, including the convening of the CPM-15 and it’s ministerial segment and the promotion of the IYPH 2020, which was declared by UNGA in December 2018. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the planned events, the IPPC is critically considering rescheduling its major pre-planned global events coupled with intensification of reliance of digital implementation of some global activities when feasible.
2. Impacts on Food Security and Mitigation Strategies.
Plants are a primary source of income for nearly half of the global population and make up 80% of the food we eat. The current COVID-19 outbreak experience highlights the need to ensure that plants are protected from the ravages of plant pests. One of the potential consequences of this global emergency is the possibility of disrupted trade and compromised access to a safe and stable supply of food. Therefore, ensuring safe supply of fresh food and protecting plants from pests is now more important than ever. While COVID-19 is affecting human health worldwide, plant pests and diseases continue to pose a threat to food production. It is particularly important at this time to remember that a threat to plant health is a threat to the health and prosperity of people, especially the most vulnerable. In this critical situation, we are all vulnerable and protecting plant health becomes vital for our own wellbeing. This is the noble goal for which the IPPC was created, as expressed by the IYPH slogan: “protecting plants, protecting life”.
3. Impacts on Safe Trade and Mitigation Strategies.
Viruses and diseases do not take passports when moving from one country to another. With globalization and the resulting increase in international travel and trade, plant pests and diseases of different kinds are more likely to be moved across borders with consignments and travelers and spread unintentionally at alarming rates. The current COVID-19 outbreak is showing us that the world must be extra careful with travel of people and be ready to tackle any emergency. In the area of plant health we must also facilitate the safe trade of plants, plant products and other items, such as sea containers that can allow pests to be spread. Detection or quarantine are indispensable security measures to contain an epidemic – be it a human, animal or plant health emergency. The IPPC Secretariat also suggests making use of the IPPC electronic certification (ePhyto) wherever possible. NPPOs and inspection staff may refer to the WHO and FAO official guidance.
4. Impacts on Quarantine staff’s Health and Mitigation Strategies.
The COVID-19 global outbreak is showing the world how adopting preventive measures is essential to secure countries from the introduction and spread of devastating human diseases and that applies to the health of humans, animals and plants. Application of science-based preventive actions, including quarantine measures to contain invasive virus threats are indispensable to protect the health of people, animals and plants alike. Quarantine staff or Inspectors of consignments at the borders may be exposed to sanitary risks that are not addressed. For health and safety concerns regarding consignments, please refer to the WHO guidelines on how to protect human health during the COVID-19 outbreak:
5. Communication, Partnership and Solidarity.
Global coordination is essential to tackle COVID-19. It is time for the international community to act more decisively in a coordinated manner. The international community must take notice and develop a rapid and coordinated response. Adopting divergent measures could be even more catastrophic for countries living in an emergency. Prevention, Preparedness, Public health, Political leadership and People are the top 5 P-words the WHO DG called the world to focus on when considering this COVID-19 pandemic. The plant health community can learn a lot from this and that is why it is important for countries to follow the IPPC International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures when setting their national phytosanitary measures, thus harmonizing measures at a global level. Sharing knowledge and best practices is essential to face global crises and combat common enemies. We strongly encourage you to take technically justified measures to protect Plant Health as another warning from the current emergency.
Your immune system is responsible for responding when you are exposed to viruses and bacteria, when you have a cut or a broken bone, or when your cells begin to change in an abnormal way, as in the early stages of cancer. It also plays the vital role of determining what tissues belong to your body and leaving them alone, and quickly recognizing and eliminating foreign proteins from a bacteria or virus. The immune system is also responsible for inflammation, the natural process that occurs in response to injury. Inflammation is incredibly important to initiate healing, but too much of it can be detrimental and is linked to heart disease, diabetes, cancer and many other illnesses.
The immune system has a very complex job to do. I like to think of this system as an orchestra, in which each instrument plays a vital role, and if one is not functioning at its best, it can throw everything off and quickly turn a symphony into chaos. The key to a functional, strong immune system is balance—keeping the immune system calm and happy on a daily basis, and ensuring it is primed and ready to respond when needed.
Healthy immune function starts with what you feed your body. Plant foods tend to be anti-inflammatory, so consuming lots of fruits, vegetables and whole grains is an important aspect of good immune function. In addition, many studies have linked obesity with impaired immune response, so a plant-based diet can do double-duty to support immune function by also helping you maintain a healthy weight. Regular exercise and managing your stress are also essential aspects of a strong immune system.
Certain herbs can help support your immune system on a long-term basis. Garlic is full of compounds like allicin, ajoene and thiosulfinates, powerful molecules that help your body prevent and fight infections. Garlic also has a rich history of being used topically to disinfect wounds and fight fungal infections. The best way to use garlic for immune support is to consume fresh, crushed garlic. While you may not be daring enough to chomp raw garlic, adding raw garlic to a sauce or pesto is a good and flavorful way to get it in your body.
Horseradish, cayenne and ginger are all considered “blood movers” in Chinese medicine. They stimulate blood flow and, as you might imagine, can kill off many microbes. It is thought that the consumption of spicy foods, including those seasoned with these tasty and potent herbs, can ward off digestive infections. Oregano and thyme are also full of aromatic compounds (the essential oils that make the plants smell so wonderful) that also have potent antimicrobial action. They can be consumed as a culinary spice or as a tea, inhaled to deliver the herbs to the sinuses or lungs (see Steamy Support for Sinuses), or taken in capsules if a stronger medicine is needed.
To take immune support to the next level, consider taking some of these immune boosters on a regular basis, at least through the fall and winter months: mushrooms like shiitake, reishi, chaga and cordyceps, as well as botanicals such as astragalus, elderberry and ashwagandha. Ashwagandha (Withania somniferia), along with many of these herbs, is also an adpatogen, which is a word for a natural substance that helps the body adapt to stress. See Fresh Clips: All About Adaptogens to learn more about adaptogens.
Immunity-Boosting Mushrooms
Though not an herb, we include mushrooms because they are potent allies in the quest for a strong immune system. Mushrooms such as maitake, shiitake, reishi and chaga all contain a complex array of nutrients that help to support good immune function. These include complex polysaccharides which appear to act as immunomodulators–this means they can stimulate an underactive immune system and calm an overactive immune system, acting as immune balancers.
The best-studied polysaccharide is called beta-D-glucan. This complex sugar is well-absorbed when mushrooms are consumed and is currently being studied for its potential role in treating cancer, HIV and AIDS. It is thought to work by stimulating specialized white blood cells (called macrophages and neutrophils) which can recognize and kill tumor cells, remove damage caused by free radicals, speed up recovery of damaged tissue, and activate other immune responses when necessary.
Research has shown that medicinal mushrooms also can help prevent white blood cell diminishment in people given chemotherapy and radiation, and can elevate antibody levels (proteins that help identify foreign invaders) in healthy people.
Shiitake mushrooms are available at most grocery stores and are a delicious way to incorporate mushrooms into your food. Sometimes labeled “baby portabellos,” they can be substituted in any recipe that calls for button mushrooms to increase the healthfulness of the meal. Traditionally, mushrooms are decocted, or simmered, for hours to brew a strong tea. I recommend brewing a large batch and freezing the mushroom tea, which can be added to broths, soups and other foods when cooking.
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Astragalus contains many compounds similar to the medicinal mushrooms. I will often add astragalus to immune preparations to take regularly as a preventive.
Take a look at this collection The Lost Book Of Remedies, taken word for word out of a circa 1845 manual.
What is The Lost Book of Remedies? The Lost Book of Remedies PDF contains a series of medicinal and herbal recipes to make home made remedies from medicinal plants and herbs. Chromic diseases and maladies can be overcome by taking the remedies outlined in this book. The writer claims that his grandfather was taught herbalism and healing whilst in active service during world war two and that he has treated many soldiers with his home made cures.
Fighting Flu and Colds
If you happen to come down with a viral or bacterial infection, herbs can provide a lot of relief. The following herbs, including elderberry, echinacea, goldenseal and andrographis, are some of my favorites for when you’re hit with illness.
Elderberry
Elderberry (Sambucus nigra) is probably the most delicious herb used to support a strong immune system. Elderberry has been used for centuries to treat colds, flu and other viral infections. Native to Europe, Asia and North America, it can tolerate a wide variety of growing conditions. The blue and black berries, along with the flowers, are used to make syrup or are taken dried as a food. Elderberries are a great source of vitamins A, B and C, and contain a high level of flavonoids, anti-inflammatory compounds that can promote healthy cell function.
Elderberry has been studied for its antiviral effects. Several studies have demonstrated that people who consumed elderberry syrup (1 tablespoon daily) had a lower incidence of viral infection than those who did not. Also, people who took elderberry syrup at the onset of their first cold symptoms experienced a shorter duration of illness than those who did not.
The best thing about elderberry is that it is truly delicious and is very safe, even in children and the elderly. Elderberry syrup is conventionally available, and can be eaten right off the spoon, or used more exotically. In our household, we drizzle it over oatmeal or add it to seltzer water for a delicious elderberry spritzer.
Echinacea and Goldenseal
Echinacea and goldenseal, often paired together, are probably the best-known herbs for immune support, especially for acute illnesses. In general, human studies have found that echinacea taken orally stimulates the function of a variety of immune cells. Although contradictory evidence exists, most studies suggest that the correct varieties of echinacea can speed the recovery from the common cold by stimulating the immune system to respond faster and better (versus killing the virus directly). Many beautiful varieties of echinacea abound, but the medicine is in E. purpurea or E. angustifolia.
Research studies looking at echinacea as a preventive herb seem to be mostly negative. This suggests that the best use of echinacea is to take it only when needed, or when illness strikes. Echinacea is most often used as a tincture (about 1 teaspoon three times daily) or as an encapsulated herb taken immediately when you are coming down with a viral infection.
Goldenseal has always been thought to have direct antibacterial and antiviral action, although research has demonstrated that its action is more diverse than that. The antimicrobial action comes from a compound called berberine, which is present in goldenseal and many related plants. It is thought that goldenseal also acts by increasing the secretion of mucous membranes, making your nose and mouth more effective at warding off microbes. Because of goldenseal’s popularity, it has become overharvested in the wild and is now at risk for becoming an endangered species. I recommend only sourcing goldenseal from companies that farm their own, or avoid its use altogether and choose different herbs for immune support.
Andrographis
Few people have heard of andrographis, an herb native to India and Sri Lanka, but it is the herb with the best research in the area of immune support. Studies on andrographis have demonstrated that it can be used to successfully reduce the severity of the common cold. It also has been demonstrated to prevent the onset of a cold in healthy people. It is thought that andrographis can stimulate many types of immune cells to jump into action and fight off viral invaders. Look for a product that contains andrographolides, the active constituents in andrographis, and take enough to get 15 to 20 mg of andrographolides per dose, dosed three times daily.
Steamy Support for Sinuses
To deliver immune-boosting herbs directly where you need them most, consider an herbal steam. Herbal steams are great for respiratory conditions that affect your nose, throat and lungs. To make an herbal steam, bring 4 to 6 cups of water to a boil and then remove from heat. Add 1 to 5 drops essential oil to hot water. Hold your head about 12 to 18 inches above the pot and drape a towel over your head to make a tent. Breathe deeply for 5 to 10 minutes to give yourself a wonderful, healing treatment.
For children, you may also consider using essential oils dropped onto a shelf in a hot shower or bath. The steam will pick up the oils and deliver them in a less concentrated, gentler way.
Consider using one or more of the following:
Thyme: Contains potent antiviral and antibacterial properties delivered right to the lungs and sinuses.
Eucalyptus: The herb of choice to clear congestion
Lavender: A calming, soothing aromatic that also delivers antimicrobial action to an irritated respiratory tract.
A Plan of Action
When preparing yourself for the winter months, think of supporting your strong immune system in three ways:
• Follow a healthy lifestyle that allows your immune system to thrive. Base your diet around fruits, vegetables and whole grains. Decrease your intake of refined foods, sugar and alcohol, all of which have been shown to decrease resistance to infection. Get lots of fresh air and regular exercise to promote healthy immune function, and keep your stress level as low as possible.
• Consider adding to your regime herbs that can support healthy immune function. These may include culinary herbs such as garlic, onions, horseradish, ginger, cayenne, oregano, thyme or mushrooms. You also might consider using elderberry through the fall and winter for an extra preventive boost.
• When needed, turn to your botanical powerhouses. Use andrographis, echinacea and elderberry in higher doses to combat illness and help shorten your suffering when exposed to a viral infection.