investmentwatchblog--2020-09-14--Bullheaded Dave Portnoy Gets Pounded with His Own Hammer

Dave Portnoy is shaking his fist at the stock market , daring it to give him a bigger pounding than it already has — telling his gambling fans how the $ 700 million he lost on Thursday , and the four-million he ’ s lost “ in a f—ing blink ” over the week is just a flesh wound , a mere scratch .
If it ’ s “ just a scratch , ” he ’ s soon going to look like he took a naked marathon run through the blackberry patch .
So , it ’ s a good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be too sober .
He ’ s going to need a lot more anesthesia before his downhill run is over .
Potnoy is the big-mouth braggart who has led the Robinhood investing pack to gain billions in the insanity run that the stock market made against the backdrop of a shattered economy .
Out of the ashes of the economic Covidcrash , Portnoy managed to establish the baloney mantra that “ stocks only go up , ” and he was fool enough to believe his barstool wisdom .
Yeah , stocks only go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got into the day trading gig just in time to ride the most insane melt-up in history … and help create it with his braggadocios cheerleading .
The broader truth is that “ stocks only go up … until they don ’ t. ” He could have learned that just by drinking a little less during the market ’ s March madness .
( As opposed to April ’ s fool run . )
Here , after just taking a major headbanger during the market ’ s Thursday opening , is Dave Portnoy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the market proved … again … the adage he ’ s tried to create is a fraud .
He sounds like he just spent previous night downing Irish car bombs to steady his hands after the thromping he got in the earlier part of the week .
This is the sound of money circling the drain as someone is too dumb and too arrogant to get out of harms way : Portnoy is pretending he loves the thrashing like a boxer loves a good fight , but he ’ s clearly been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and can ’ t figure out which ways is up in the market or , at least , why the market keeps falling when it never does that .
That ’ s what the brassy balls of golden bulls do when they run their heads into a boulder .
They brag about how they didn ’ t even feel the pain , even as they stagger and their eyes role back in their sockets .
Portnoy right now looks like this kind of bloodied bull , determined to climb back up the edifice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fall all over again : Yeah , it ’ s a great trip , Portnoy , if you like to become living hamburger .
The entertaining thing about braggarts of Portnoy ’ s type is you get to watch them get beat up again and again as they refuse to admit they could have been wrong .
David Portnoy ’ s boasts were made easy and predictably accurate due to Fed and federal support that was far more massive than any time in history .
The market ’ s rise on that flood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an unconquerable genius , far smarter than than seasoned investors because he could outdo “ the suits ” any day of the week .
Little did this bubble-headed genius know he was simply riding his Irish car bomb up one of the market ’ s famous melt-ups .
He made a quick new fortune that will be just as quickly lost because he bet on the blowout of the largest most obvious bubble in US history , and he was too dumb to recognize it was a bubble , even when he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sports world he made his first fortune in due to the Covidcrisis .
I mean how could you expect anyone to know that the market would eventually catch down … again … to the smoldering ruins of the economy ?
You can ’ t see this stuff coming from behind a glass of Irish Death beer and Bailey ’ s .
And here he is after the day was over , stupidly telling his fans , again , that stocks only go up .
Repeat the lie often enough to hammer it into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( The drunken video , like Portnoy , runs like it has heartburn , but try to skip past the long disclaimer intro to the action at 2:00 minutes in .
And — forewarning for the faint of heart — he ’ s a crude talker if you want to avoid that .
You don ’ t need to listen to all of it … but it ’ s entertaining to listen to a bull bawl as he tries to figure out why things aren ’ t going in the direction they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can feel the scalding pain bubbling up inside his chest , even as he tries to choke down what ’ s happening to him . )
Hmm ?
How can the stock market be all down , including even Tesla and Apple ?
They were the sure bet that would continue all the way to the end of the ever-expanding universe .
Now they are food for heartburn .
Hard for Portnoy to swallow .
About all he can say on the positive is … Believe away .
Your Musk god is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the finite .
And who could have seen a crashing Tesla coming ?
?
?
Maybe an idiot since it was priced to 777 times perfection ?
Don ’ t driverless Teslas always crash ?
No kidding !
That ’ s what happens when you buy stocks on leverage that are priced higher than 700 times forward earnings !
( I do take a certain ill-gotten pleasure in watching boastful idiots fall — not in watching everyone fall , but just those whose unmerited pride has been puking out their flapping mouths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on end . )
Your mighty hammer isn ’ t going to deliver either , Davie Boy .
Thor is dead , and all that ’ s green is not golden .
Next , Portnoy turned to his his Smith & Wesson stock to defend himself ; but even Smith & Wesson was killing him .
Who gets shot down by something like Smith & Wesson ?
An alcohol-sopping idiot who pulls the trigger with the pistol still in its holster and shoots his own foot .
Dave Portnoy didn ’ t sound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he pops antacids like a Tums addict .
When the market was rising , it was all real money , and he was getting rich hand over clenched fist .
But now that he ’ s losing… .
It ’ s money when you ’ re making it , just paper when you ’ re losing it !
And , so , he dumps more cash in to try to hold his position .
Smith & Wesson just backfired and exploded into Portnoy ’ s face .
That ’ s what a melt-up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can only imagine how his videos will sound wilder with more heartburn as the market pounds relentlessly down ( an experience Portnoy , green in all of this as he is , apparently has never had the opporunity to fully savor ) .
It should be a fun train wreck to watch , and I ’ ll set up a few seats for everyone to watch with me in the weeks ahead because it is also educational .
Portnoy doesn ’ t understand the stock market on a longer timeframe any more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost a wad of cash .
Such a long face for a guy who has spent months bragging about how brilliant he is and about how trading stocks is easy .
Yeah , it ’ s easy when the Fed and feds are dumping trillions of new money into the market !
But what happens when they stop ?
And that ’ s the lesson to be learned .
The props can not continue forever , and they are increasingly ineffective to where it is taking larger amounts than we ’ ve ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So , what happens when they fail .
The NASDAQ , which predominantly features Dave ’ s favorite stocks , ended Thursday sitting on its line of hard support .
Imagine how much longer Davie Boy ’ s horse face gets if the NASDAQ monkey hammers its way through that support .
I have a tip for you , Davie : invest in liquor stocks .
Stock up .
You ’ re going to need it because the bumpy ride down , which you haven ’ t been around long enough to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get a lot harsher than the smooth sailing up !
So , get ready to be butt-hammered by the seat of the roller coaster on the bumps down … because some of them are really big .
Your rocket ride uphill looks like this : Dave Portnoy trips down the up escalator Funny thing is , I warned Dave and his not-so-merry band of traders all of this was coming in an article titled “ Robinhood & Its Band of Traders Not So Merry as Stock Market Turns Volatile.
” At the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it should just do what Robinhood was doing and follow his gang up the steep hill of success .
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent a shudder through the stock market when he spoke candidly in June about how long recovery was really going to take .
That was a mere foreshock of a far greater quake that was building .
Thus , I warned , In other articles , I pinned the timeframe for that downturn to somewhere between late August and October .
Alas , those who are in the ascendancy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of cold reason about the cliffs ahead , even when they get a brief jolt from someone like Sheriff Powell to warn them .
The little guys who followed Dave Portnoy like a train of roller-coaster cars up the long incline are now all about to get pounded down by Portnoy ’ s hammer , too .
The bullheaded think only with testosterone-addled brains , but the market ’ s hangover is now going to jackhammer their rattling heads for weeks to come with a few ups and many hard downs .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ response to the current stock-market plunge , which I just read Thursday morning as Dave was taking the Portnoy Plunge : True , it may not look like an elevator down this time .
I think it will look more like a bunch of truly cocky people falling down the up escalator : ( Sliding down those up smooth rails ain ’ t as much fun — or as smooth — as they thought it was going to be . )
Falling down the up escalator can be an endless ride to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just wanted and needed a ride up , you feel sorry for ; but the ones who are just plain dumb and cocky like Pottymouth Portnoy … they get what is coming to them .
As Portnoy chooses to continue to dump money into this grossly overpriced market during a crashing economy because he believes he can not possibly be wrong , I can only say , “ Have a nice trip ; see you next fall.
” Contrary to the commenter above , the market is actually highly likely to fall below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a single plunge as it did in March ’ s cliff dive .
It will be more like bouncing down a lot of stairs that just keep coming and won ’ t let up .
This one will look more like the dot-com crash , which was an protracted cascade to a new bottom that took almost two years to play out .
We can barely fathom where that bottom is because this event is not just the dot-com crash all over again .
It is all of that and a WHOLE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ implosion of the Everything Bubble , and it will be worse than the dot-com bust many , many months from now because the Fed has lost its ability too single-handedly turn the market around .
For the past decade easy-peasy market Dave Portnoy bought into had risen and fallen and risen again based on Fed actions .
Portnoy merely bought in for the final ride — the no-brains-required-or-even-wanted melt-up .
Federation of support is failing badly now With Fed support always able to come to the rescue , Portnoy could easily claim , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the days of Fed support , he was too young to know the difference between stocks and bondage .
Now he ’ s lost three-million in three days , four million in a week !
This year became different .
The stock market ignored Fed actions completely .
The Fed couldn ’ t turn the market around to save its reputation in March .
( See “ The Fed is Dead.
” ) It took the federal government adding an additional $ 3 trillion in muscle to create this last melt-up rally .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed-funded money straight into the pockets of retail investors .
These are the folk the Fed never directly serves — the people the Fed overlooked throughout its Great Recovery effort that widened the gap between the rich and the rest .
So , the federal government opened a new door for Fed funding to an untapped market with a trillion dollars flowing in every month !
Already , the government is starting to sound exhausted from this sprint .
It ’ s deadlocked over how much further to take this , while the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ balance sheet higher still just to try to create a bigger , more insane stock bubble .
So , where is the additional money going to come from ?
If Democrats gain total control of government in November , we may get another attempted rocket ride because most of the party wants to create and hand out money to the new mass market with total abandon — in the form of free basic income for everyone , a return to $ 600-per-week unemployment bonuses , reparation money to Blacks , Modern Monetary Theory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grandkids money to play with , etc .
That may forestall our pain — perhaps — and it could move the cliff a little further away at the cost of making it even larger ; but I wouldn ’ t bet on it !
Sinkholes are already appearing everywhere due to the caverns of debt we have carved out beneath every corporation and beneath the government , itself .
There is nothing solid to build on ; the whole economy is caving into a pit we have spent more than three decades creating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about this calamity is beyond extreme .
It ’ s beyond anything the stock market has ever exhibited , and Portnoy is its perfect figurehead .
That means it is likely going to take some long hard repetitive pounding to jackhammer the market down to where it needs to go to match the economy that ultimately the stock market does ride upon , whether investors are smart enough to realize that or not .
Consider that Fed and federal intervention is beyond anything we have ever seen , straining already to do everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market up and the economy up .
Yet , the economy has clearly recovered as far as it ’ s going to in the short term .
As I ’ ve been writing since May , the economic recovery ( due to reopening and the largest stimulus effort truly in the history of the world ) would peak around mid-July .
That didn ’ t take long to prove out .
Total unemployment has started rising consistently again .
Many other economic metrics that were improving started to plateau around mid-July .
After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government supports would start to fail , so we would start to actually feel the pain .
That is just beginning to happen .
Now come the innumerable knock-on effects I ’ ve talked about , due to all the things that failed and will never reopen .
For example : two restaurants go out of business that brought a lot of people to a few boutique shops nearby , so next the shops go out of business .
Then the shopping center they were in closes .
Then the gas station next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one is driving into the area .
It takes months for those dominoes to fall one into the other until they are finally all down .
But that DOES and MOST CERTAINLY WILL happen , and you can see that it is coming , so there is no reason to be surprised by it .
That second phase is just starting to happen due to the damage already cemented in place .
That means it will play out , even if the Coronavirus is conquered today ; but , if the virus does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a third and fourth wave of economic damage .
I ’ m talking about the knock-on effects from all the businesses that have already permanently closed .
Anyone who thinks those effects are not coming is living must be drinking whatever Dave Portnoy is drinking .
As we enter this secondary phase , we are also getting into what is likely to be the most hostile , contested and chaotic election season of all time .
Our social reality is likely to get even worse than it already is , leading up to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of who wins .
The decision makers on both sides have clearly laid the ground for contesting the results , and their backers at street level are all ready for a brawl .
Thus , I don ’ t think the Democrat ’ s plan to spend a universe of new money is really going to spare us from our troubles , given the turmoil to come .
I think the social turmoil will be worse , however , if the Democrats lose because they are the ones most fired up already , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fire and getting away with it ; so , maybe winning would calm them down .
Losing will certainly blow oxygen into their flames , especially if it is a narrow and contested loss .
Kamala Harris is already fanning the flames by encouraging everyone to keep the protests — violent as they are everywhere — going until the November election .
Imagine how the Dem ’ s will fire up their masses if only a few hanging chads determine the election in Trump ’ s favor .
Our best hope for social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is beyond contesting ; but that doesn ’ t appear likely .
This stock market clearly has a tremendous amount of travail coming , and bullheaded believers like the one quoted above , and particularly like Portnoy , parade the insanity that prevails right now .
The market may try to rally at times in the months ahead on nothing but bull testosterone , but the bulls are going to get their heads bashed over and over as many times as it takes because REALITY will win .
The market WILL price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during these economic downturns , and economic reality right now has returned , as I said it would by mid-July , to sinking in some areas and plateauing at a lower level than where it was in other areas .
When Dave Portnoy finally finishes using his hammer to pound his own head into hamburger made from bully beef , maybe he ’ ll be humbled by total , undeniable disgrace .
For now , he is clinging to nothing but his own boisterous bravado , trying to convince the not-so-merry band to @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by David Haggith
Dave Portnoy is shaking his fist at the stock market, daring it to give him a bigger pounding than it already has — telling his gambling fans how the $700 million he lost on Thursday, and the four-million he’s lost “in a f—ing blink” over the week is just a flesh wound, a mere scratch.
If it’s “just a scratch,” he’s soon going to look like he took a naked marathon run through the blackberry patch. So, it’s a good thing he doesn’t appear to be too sober. He’s going to need a lot more anesthesia before his downhill run is over.
Potnoy is the big-mouth braggart who has led the Robinhood investing pack to gain billions in the insanity run that the stock market made against the backdrop of a shattered economy. Out of the ashes of the economic Covidcrash, Portnoy managed to establish the baloney mantra that “stocks only go up,” and he was fool enough to believe his barstool wisdom.
Yeah, stocks only go up in a meltup, and Portnoy got into the day trading gig just in time to ride the most insane melt-up in history … and help create it with his braggadocios cheerleading. The broader truth is that “stocks only go up … until they don’t.” He could have learned that just by drinking a little less during the market’s March madness. (As opposed to April’s fool run.)
Here, after just taking a major headbanger during the market’s Thursday opening, is Dave Portnoy boasting about how indomitable he is even as the market proved … again … the adage he’s tried to create is a fraud. He sounds like he just spent previous night downing Irish car bombs to steady his hands after the thromping he got in the earlier part of the week. This is the sound of money circling the drain as someone is too dumb and too arrogant to get out of harms way:
Down $700k and cool as the other side of the pillow. I love this shit. #DDTG pic.twitter.com/W1GjGgUSa1 — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) September 8, 2020
Portnoy is pretending he loves the thrashing like a boxer loves a good fight, but he’s clearly been hit enough that he’s punch-drunk and can’t figure out which ways is up in the market or, at least, why the market keeps falling when it never does that.
That’s what the brassy balls of golden bulls do when they run their heads into a boulder. They brag about how they didn’t even feel the pain, even as they stagger and their eyes role back in their sockets.
Portnoy right now looks like this kind of bloodied bull, determined to climb back up the edifice from which he fell and take the fall all over again:
Yeah, it’s a great trip, Portnoy, if you like to become living hamburger. The entertaining thing about braggarts of Portnoy’s type is you get to watch them get beat up again and again as they refuse to admit they could have been wrong.
Why the long horse face, Day-trader Dave?
David Portnoy’s boasts were made easy and predictably accurate due to Fed and federal support that was far more massive than any time in history. The market’s rise on that flood of support made Portnoy feel he was an unconquerable genius, far smarter than than seasoned investors because he could outdo “the suits” any day of the week.
Little did this bubble-headed genius know he was simply riding his Irish car bomb up one of the market’s famous melt-ups. He made a quick new fortune that will be just as quickly lost because he bet on the blowout of the largest most obvious bubble in US history, and he was too dumb to recognize it was a bubble, even when he was surrounded by the economic blowout of the sports world he made his first fortune in due to the Covidcrisis. I mean how could you expect anyone to know that the market would eventually catch down … again … to the smoldering ruins of the economy? You can’t see this stuff coming from behind a glass of Irish Death beer and Bailey’s.
And here he is after the day was over, stupidly telling his fans, again, that stocks only go up. Repeat the lie often enough to hammer it into truth in the minds of the masses. (The drunken video, like Portnoy, runs like it has heartburn, but try to skip past the long disclaimer intro to the action at 2:00 minutes in. And — forewarning for the faint of heart — he’s a crude talker if you want to avoid that. You don’t need to listen to all of it … but it’s entertaining to listen to a bull bawl as he tries to figure out why things aren’t going in the direction they are always supposed to go. You can feel the scalding pain bubbling up inside his chest, even as he tries to choke down what’s happening to him.)
Davey Day Trader at the Closing Bell – September 8, 2020 t.co/169v0phcwQ — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) September 8, 2020
Hmm? How can the stock market be all down, including even Tesla and Apple? They were the sure bet that would continue all the way to the end of the ever-expanding universe. Now they are food for heartburn. Hard for Portnoy to swallow. About all he can say on the positive is …
It could have been worse. We had a couple of bad days!… I believe in Elon Musk…. Whatever happens to Elon Musk, he’s eight steps ahead…. I don’t know what to sell though…. Don’t be an idiot; Tesla’s going to come back, but I have to sell something!… Like, the stock market is down, but it’s all down on Amazon, Apple and Tesla…. From the linked video
Believe away. Your Musk god is not going to deliver. You have faith in the finite. And who could have seen a crashing Tesla coming???
Maybe an idiot since it was priced to 777 times perfection? Don’t driverless Teslas always crash?
I have heartburn. Really, the heartburn is killing me. I don’t know what to unload. I’m over leveraged right now…. I don’t want to get rid of any, but I don’t have enough money!…
No kidding! That’s what happens when you buy stocks on leverage that are priced higher than 700 times forward earnings! (I do take a certain ill-gotten pleasure in watching boastful idiots fall — not in watching everyone fall, but just those whose unmerited pride has been puking out their flapping mouths all day, every day for months on end.)
I just got caught with my hand in the cookie jar with Tesla…. I’ve got twenty minutes to figure this out so I don’t have to write a check…. Free ad for Tums, but I’m dying over here…. What happens when Tesla’s down 20%? A couple antacids…. I’m WAY over leveraged…. Tesla, you piece of ____!… It’s not as fun when it’s going the wrong way, I’ll tell you that! I need the green hammer.
Your mighty hammer isn’t going to deliver either, Davie Boy. Thor is dead, and all that’s green is not golden.
Next, Portnoy turned to his his Smith & Wesson stock to defend himself; but even Smith & Wesson was killing him. Who gets shot down by something like Smith & Wesson?
An alcohol-sopping idiot who pulls the trigger with the pistol still in its holster and shoots his own foot.
Dave Portnoy didn’t sound so brave in that video shot as he pops antacids like a Tums addict.
When the market was rising, it was all real money, and he was getting rich hand over clenched fist. But now that he’s losing…. It’s money when you’re making it, just paper when you’re losing it! And, so, he dumps more cash in to try to hold his position.
It’s all on paper…. Right?… That’s what they say? It’s only paper…. I believe in Elon Musk…. Buy the f___ing dip, Boys! Stocks will be back. One of these days Smith & Wesson’s going to explode on people’s faces…. Where’s my equity?
Smith & Wesson just backfired and exploded into Portnoy’s face. That’s what a melt-up meltdown looks like in person.
You can only imagine how his videos will sound wilder with more heartburn as the market pounds relentlessly down (an experience Portnoy, green in all of this as he is, apparently has never had the opporunity to fully savor). It should be a fun train wreck to watch, and I’ll set up a few seats for everyone to watch with me in the weeks ahead because it is also educational.
Portnoy doesn’t understand the stock market on a longer timeframe any more than he understood crypto, where he also lost a wad of cash.
Such a long face for a guy who has spent months bragging about how brilliant he is and about how trading stocks is easy. Yeah, it’s easy when the Fed and feds are dumping trillions of new money into the market! But what happens when they stop?
And that’s the lesson to be learned. The props cannot continue forever, and they are increasingly ineffective to where it is taking larger amounts than we’ve ever witnessed to get the market to rise. So, what happens when they fail.
This happens:
Stock Market exhibiting signs of panic-like selling Thursday as Dow sees roughly 400-point skid The U.S. stock market Thursday afternoon was seeing technology stocks routed again, and panic-like selling emerging on Wall Street. A volume-weighted breadth measure that tracks the ratio of advancing stocks to decliners over the ratio of advancing volume over declining volume, was showing a reading of 2.136 for New York Stock Exchange-listed shares. Many technicians say a rise to at least 2.000 suggests panic-like selling behavior. MarketWatch
The NASDAQ, which predominantly features Dave’s favorite stocks, ended Thursday sitting on its line of hard support. Imagine how much longer Davie Boy’s horse face gets if the NASDAQ monkey hammers its way through that support.
I have a tip for you, Davie: invest in liquor stocks. Stock up. You’re going to need it because the bumpy ride down, which you haven’t been around long enough to feel, is going to feel a get a lot harsher than the smooth sailing up! So, get ready to be butt-hammered by the seat of the roller coaster on the bumps down … because some of them are really big. Your rocket ride uphill looks like this:
Dave Portnoy trips down the up escalator
Funny thing is, I warned Dave and his not-so-merry band of traders all of this was coming in an article titled “Robinhood & Its Band of Traders Not So Merry as Stock Market Turns Volatile.” At the time, even Goldman Sachs was openly wondering if it should just do what Robinhood was doing and follow his gang up the steep hill of success.
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I questioned that strategy:
Is following Robinhood and the gang a winning strategy? I say Robinhood is about to bear the slings and arrows of misfortunate time as the stock market now becomes more volatile…. These fabulous traders are about to get trounced…. Robinhood’s three-million new traders in the first quarter arrived just in time to learn the main pathways through the forest right before the U.S. economy reopened. The V-shaped recovery narrative became so widely popular that it was easy for anyone betting on that narrative to be swept along in a rising trend. They were primed to make a killing on the reopening narrative. And they did. Now it’s going to kill them.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent a shudder through the stock market when he spoke candidly in June about how long recovery was really going to take. That was a mere foreshock of a far greater quake that was building. Thus, I warned,
Nouveau riche traders like Dave Portnoy, who made their sudden claim to fame on Robinhood, are about to meet the sheriff of Nottingham Forest. Let’s see if it goes as well for them as it did for the Robinhood of legend.
In other articles, I pinned the timeframe for that downturn to somewhere between late August and October. Alas, those who are in the ascendancy are not likely to listen to voices of cold reason about the cliffs ahead, even when they get a brief jolt from someone like Sheriff Powell to warn them.
The little guys who followed Dave Portnoy like a train of roller-coaster cars up the long incline are now all about to get pounded down by Portnoy’s hammer, too. The bullheaded think only with testosterone-addled brains, but the market’s hangover is now going to jackhammer their rattling heads for weeks to come with a few ups and many hard downs.
Here is a typical bullheaded investor’s response to the current stock-market plunge, which I just read Thursday morning as Dave was taking the Portnoy Plunge:
Agree this is NOT an elevator going to the basement, more like to the 90th floor from the 100th until they add on to 110 post election NO Matter who wins (relief rally incoming). We had a sky rocket summer, and the market usually pulls back September and October. Not likely we go to march or even april lows. Think about an infrastructure deal, and positive early preliminary vaccination info. Virus numbers are in gradual decline in rate. There is no real reason other then a breather from the massive run up.
True, it may not look like an elevator down this time. I think it will look more like a bunch of truly cocky people falling down the up escalator: (Sliding down those up smooth rails ain’t as much fun — or as smooth — as they thought it was going to be.)
Falling down the up escalator can be an endless ride to the bottom. Those who were benign and just wanted and needed a ride up, you feel sorry for; but the ones who are just plain dumb and cocky like Pottymouth Portnoy … they get what is coming to them. As Portnoy chooses to continue to dump money into this grossly overpriced market during a crashing economy because he believes he cannot possibly be wrong, I can only say, “Have a nice trip; see you next fall.”
Contrary to the commenter above, the market is actually highly likely to fall below its March lows, though probably not in a single plunge as it did in March’s cliff dive. It will be more like bouncing down a lot of stairs that just keep coming and won’t let up.
This one will look more like the dot-com crash, which was an protracted cascade to a new bottom that took almost two years to play out. We can barely fathom where that bottom is because this event is not just the dot-com crash all over again. It is all of that and a WHOLE lot more!
It’s the implosion of the Everything Bubble, and it will be worse than the dot-com bust many, many months from now because the Fed has lost its ability too single-handedly turn the market around. For the past decade easy-peasy market Dave Portnoy bought into had risen and fallen and risen again based on Fed actions. Portnoy merely bought in for the final ride — the no-brains-required-or-even-wanted melt-up.
Federation of support is failing badly now
With Fed support always able to come to the rescue, Portnoy could easily claim, “stocks only go up.” Before the days of Fed support, he was too young to know the difference between stocks and bondage. Now he’s lost three-million in three days, four million in a week!
This year became different. The stock market ignored Fed actions completely. The Fed couldn’t turn the market around to save its reputation in March. (See “The Fed is Dead.”) It took the federal government adding an additional $3 trillion in muscle to create this last melt-up rally.
The difference is the Federal government pumped Fed-funded money straight into the pockets of retail investors. These are the folk the Fed never directly serves — the people the Fed overlooked throughout its Great Recovery effort that widened the gap between the rich and the rest. So, the federal government opened a new door for Fed funding to an untapped market with a trillion dollars flowing in every month!
Already, the government is starting to sound exhausted from this sprint. It’s deadlocked over how much further to take this, while the Fed is looking reluctant to crank its balance sheet higher still just to try to create a bigger, more insane stock bubble. So, where is the additional money going to come from?
If Democrats gain total control of government in November, we may get another attempted rocket ride because most of the party wants to create and hand out money to the new mass market with total abandon — in the form of free basic income for everyone, a return to $600-per-week unemployment bonuses, reparation money to Blacks, Modern Monetary Theory giving the government glorious amounts of our grandkids money to play with, etc.
That may forestall our pain — perhaps — and it could move the cliff a little further away at the cost of making it even larger; but I wouldn’t bet on it! Sinkholes are already appearing everywhere due to the caverns of debt we have carved out beneath every corporation and beneath the government, itself. There is nothing solid to build on; the whole economy is caving into a pit we have spent more than three decades creating.
Yet, the level of denial about this calamity is beyond extreme. It’s beyond anything the stock market has ever exhibited, and Portnoy is its perfect figurehead. That means it is likely going to take some long hard repetitive pounding to jackhammer the market down to where it needs to go to match the economy that ultimately the stock market does ride upon, whether investors are smart enough to realize that or not.
Consider that Fed and federal intervention is beyond anything we have ever seen, straining already to do everything they can jointly do to pump the market up and the economy up. Yet, the economy has clearly recovered as far as it’s going to in the short term. As I’ve been writing since May, the economic recovery (due to reopening and the largest stimulus effort truly in the history of the world) would peak around mid-July.
That didn’t take long to prove out. Total unemployment has started rising consistently again. Many other economic metrics that were improving started to plateau around mid-July.
After that, I said, the fake government supports would start to fail, so we would start to actually feel the pain. That is just beginning to happen. Now come the innumerable knock-on effects I’ve talked about, due to all the things that failed and will never reopen.
For example: two restaurants go out of business that brought a lot of people to a few boutique shops nearby, so next the shops go out of business. Then the shopping center they were in closes. Then the gas station next to the shopping center closes because no one is driving into the area. It takes months for those dominoes to fall one into the other until they are finally all down. But that DOES and MOST CERTAINLY WILL happen, and you can see that it is coming, so there is no reason to be surprised by it.
That second phase is just starting to happen due to the damage already cemented in place. That means it will play out, even if the Coronavirus is conquered today; but, if the virus does more damage, then there will be a third and fourth wave of economic damage.
I’m talking about the knock-on effects from all the businesses that have already permanently closed. Anyone who thinks those effects are not coming is living must be drinking whatever Dave Portnoy is drinking.
As we enter this secondary phase, we are also getting into what is likely to be the most hostile, contested and chaotic election season of all time. Our social reality is likely to get even worse than it already is, leading up to and especially after the election, regardless of who wins. The decision makers on both sides have clearly laid the ground for contesting the results, and their backers at street level are all ready for a brawl.
Thus, I don’t think the Democrat’s plan to spend a universe of new money is really going to spare us from our troubles, given the turmoil to come.
I think the social turmoil will be worse, however, if the Democrats lose because they are the ones most fired up already, lighting cities all over the US on fire and getting away with it; so, maybe winning would calm them down. Losing will certainly blow oxygen into their flames, especially if it is a narrow and contested loss.
Kamala Harris is already fanning the flames by encouraging everyone to keep the protests — violent as they are everywhere — going until the November election. Imagine how the Dem’s will fire up their masses if only a few hanging chads determine the election in Trump’s favor. Our best hope for social calm is a landslide victory either way that is beyond contesting; but that doesn’t appear likely.
This stock market clearly has a tremendous amount of travail coming, and bullheaded believers like the one quoted above, and particularly like Portnoy, parade the insanity that prevails right now. The market may try to rally at times in the months ahead on nothing but bull testosterone, but the bulls are going to get their heads bashed over and over as many times as it takes because REALITY will win.
The market WILL price down to reality. It always does during these economic downturns, and economic reality right now has returned, as I said it would by mid-July, to sinking in some areas and plateauing at a lower level than where it was in other areas.
When Dave Portnoy finally finishes using his hammer to pound his own head into hamburger made from bully beef, maybe he’ll be humbled by total, undeniable disgrace. For now, he is clinging to nothing but his own boisterous bravado, trying to convince the not-so-merry band to keep on pricing his stocks up.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-14--The Evolution of Online Payments

The Evolution of Online Payments

It almost comes second nature to us to pay via online methods these days .
It ’ s part and parcel of how we make transactions these days and more and more people are starting to use it .
Of course , it ’ s a long way from the very beginnings of transactions , when the trade of goods and services would suffice .
From there it moved to coins and currency and today there are dozens of variations of e-payments and it ’ s certainly making transactions easier than ever before , whether you ’ re ordering your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s been an incredible evolution of online payments and below you ’ ll find some key moments in the evolution of online payments… The Opening of the World Wide Web Of course , it all started with the very beginnings of the world wide web .
Without that we wouldn ’ t have the millions of sites , online stores and online games sites to spend money on .
The history dates back to 1969 , but it was in fact Tim Berners-Lee who really got the world wide web started by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sites .
Berners-Lee made it easier than ever to publish content online , to the point today where anyone can create a site in almost just a few clicks .
By the 1990s , e-Payments were beginning to lift off , with the likes of Millicent , ECash and CyberCoin being the early leaders in payment technology .
The early years saw micro payment systems which were designed to work as electronic cash or tokens .
The launch of Amazon was also a big player in the evolution of online payments , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all manner of other industries to start operating online .
Pizza Hut started accepting orders online from 1994 , while we also started to see the likes of online casinos and online bingo sites emerge , completely transforming the gaming industry .
The evolution of those has continued to the point where not only do millions of players worldwide enjoy playing the games , they are also often leaders of new advancements in payment methods , such as bitcoin and eWallets .
The rise of eWallets have been integral to the evolution of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the most popular methods of payment across the world .
The rise is significant and when it comes to online payments , it ’ s a method almost taking on credit cards .
In India over 50 % of transactions are now made by eWallets , and across multiple industries it ’ s certainly one of the most popular .
Again , the bingo industry is one that many players use eWallets such as PayPal and Neteller , thanks to it ’ s quickness of deposit and withdrawal .
Playing on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deposits than other online payment methods and the ability to make instant transactions has made it a real hit .
Additionally , the simplicity of PayPal has opened online payment to a brand new audience .
Where once it was only tech savvy younger adults who were confident enough to complete online transactions , the likes of PayPal have welcomed an older audience , which lends itself well to the demographic of bingo players .
As you can see from this study by Verto Analytics , the vast majority of those aged 55+ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and more businesses and entertainment sites are now accepting it as a method of payment .
Mobile payments has changed the game even further both online and when paying at real-life stores .
The likes of Apple Pay and Google Pay have proven extremely popular and they are the new method of payment to grow into the norm .

It almost comes second nature to us to pay via online methods these days. It’s part and parcel of how we make transactions these days and more and more people are starting to use it.
Of course, it’s a long way from the very beginnings of transactions, when the trade of goods and services would suffice. From there it moved to coins and currency and today there are dozens of variations of e-payments and it’s certainly making transactions easier than ever before, whether you’re ordering your groceries or playing games online.
It’s been an incredible evolution of online payments and below you’ll find some key moments in the evolution of online payments…
The Opening of the World Wide Web
Of course, it all started with the very beginnings of the world wide web. Without that we wouldn’t have the millions of sites, online stores and online games sites to spend money on.
The history dates back to 1969, but it was in fact Tim Berners-Lee who really got the world wide web started by inventing the ability to create pages and sites.
Berners-Lee made it easier than ever to publish content online, to the point today where anyone can create a site in almost just a few clicks.
The Beginning of e-Payments
By the 1990s, e-Payments were beginning to lift off, with the likes of Millicent, ECash and CyberCoin being the early leaders in payment technology.
The early years saw micro payment systems which were designed to work as electronic cash or tokens. The launch of Amazon was also a big player in the evolution of online payments, as well as it opening up opportunities for all manner of other industries to start operating online.
Pizza Hut started accepting orders online from 1994, while we also started to see the likes of online casinos and online bingo sites emerge, completely transforming the gaming industry.
The evolution of those has continued to the point where not only do millions of players worldwide enjoy playing the games, they are also often leaders of new advancements in payment methods, such as bitcoin and eWallets.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Rise of eWallets
The rise of eWallets have been integral to the evolution of online payments and it’s now one of the most popular methods of payment across the world. The rise is significant and when it comes to online payments, it’s a method almost taking on credit cards.
In India over 50% of transactions are now made by eWallets, and across multiple industries it’s certainly one of the most popular.
Again, the bingo industry is one that many players use eWallets such as PayPal and Neteller, thanks to it’s quickness of deposit and withdrawal.
Playing on PayPal bingo sites will offer much quicker deposits than other online payment methods and the ability to make instant transactions has made it a real hit. Additionally, the simplicity of PayPal has opened online payment to a brand new audience. Where once it was only tech savvy younger adults who were confident enough to complete online transactions, the likes of PayPal have welcomed an older audience, which lends itself well to the demographic of bingo players.
As you can see from this study by Verto Analytics, the vast majority of those aged 55+ use PayPal, which is why more and more businesses and entertainment sites are now accepting it as a method of payment.
The Rise of Mobile
Mobile payments has changed the game even further both online and when paying at real-life stores. The likes of Apple Pay and Google Pay have proven extremely popular and they are the new method of payment to grow into the norm.
Have you used Apple or Google Pay to make a transaction? According to reports Apple Pay is on track to account for 10% of all global card transactions, using biometric security to make contactless payments. The number of contactless payments are expected to rise to be worth $1.5trillion by 2024, and is undoubtedly the next step in the evolution of online payments. Where it moves to from there is yet to be seen. Either way, they will make payments easier, faster and safer than ever before. Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-14--Technically, This is Where I Think the S&P Will Find Strong Support and a Final Resting Place

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S & P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom .
As you know , I don ’ t make predictions based on charts , but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a subliminal desire in the market to keep plumbing the bottom to find that depth .
Dave-Portnoy daydream traders notwithstanding , this is where the market ’ s undertow wants to pull it .
I ’ m not saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the level at which the stock market would finally find substantial technical support and possibly economic convergence .
The economy , at present , would strongly support stocks at that level … unless the economy falls further ; then even that level could look overvalued .
Just one more chart If the economy goes lower ( more unemployment than where we now rest and continued decline in overall GDP ( not GDP growth rate ) , here ’ s the next lower level and likely ultimate rock bottom .
As you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trend PRE-Fed rigging would support a slightly lower level as the maximum return to trend .
The strong support reflected in the first graph will probably prevent that from happening ; but this would be the worse-case scenario , provided the earth doesn ’ t get hit by some greater natural castastrophe than what we have already seen .
At the 1,500 level there is tremendous support , even without Fed interventions .
Of course , there is also the imaginary line one could draw straight across the bottoms of the last two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) ; but we ’ ll leave that worst-case scenario for something like a major asteroid impact because those levels were established by where the market found proximate support from its PRE-FED trend line , busting slightly slightly below the line the last time but then recovering to bounce along that trend line for the next two years .
That ’ s all .
Just a couple of snapshots this time of the possible paths ahead to keep in the back of your mind , which is where I keep them .
Such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I don ’ t keep them in the back of your mind , but in the back of mine .
I ’ ll limit my intrusion into the storage space of your mind to this space here on the Great Recession Blog .
Don ’ t count on your government , however , to limit its intrusion .
Elon Musk , the demi-god at whose feet Dave Portnoy worships , after all , is already perfecting a brain-chip implant to “ help us compete ” with artificial intelligence in the sublime future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who knows what coding the government will slip in or how it will manage to hack your artificially stimulated brain , even if Elon doesn ’ t give it a back door in — a whole new Fed frontier !
Maybe Elon is already testing the chip on himself like a mad scientist ; in which case , bugs in the beta version would explain some of his bizarre misfires .
( You can almost see the sparks and smoke of his fried genius brain inside his eyeballs . )
Ah , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themes on The Great Recession Blog — such stuff as nightmares are made on .
With a little vaccination digital identification patch , compliments of Bill Gates , who knows where the American oligarchs can take us ?
I hope to remain able to be here and shine some intrusive light into those dark holes the future holds .
Don ’ t forget to consider supporting your intrepid and intentionally boisterous prognosticator .
My next article will be another Patron Post on central-bank trajectories … unless , of course , this weird year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have been sharp so far , throws us another wild card .
Patron Posts , by the way , are not intended as a paid subscription — just a thank-you for your support that offers a wider-picture view of our trajectory .
That support is what makes all the content here possible , as it is how I measure whether the content is TRULY worth something to people in their own estimation .
But , whether I can continue , is up to you , as dark times also press me to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that help offset the losses of unemployment for which I have so far seen zero benefits since my COVID layoff in May ( March and April having been covered by my employer ) .
Employment Security told me my article writing ( though it is nothing but a small sideline of income ) makes me self-employed ( because of the rare times I got paid for my articles from one site I was writing for this past spring when unemployment hit ) .
On that basis , they determined I am unqualified because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worker .
Writing articles , as it turns out so far ( though I ’ ve won an appeal but not seen the results of that either ) , has cost me far more than what I could have made by doing nothing at all and resting on unemployment .
That ’ s the cost of being honest in what you report to Employment Security , even when you know they won ’ t be able to comprehend the nuances .
I anticipated it would play out that way but reported honestly anyway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soldiered on with the writing that cost me those unemployment benefits ( including the government ’ s $ 600 per week augmentation of UI benefits , more than I make per month off of contributions ) .
I do so because the support of a few says this is meaningful to some ( where it actually counts for them because it costs them something ) .
That is meaningful at a heart level to me , too .
One person has even just added some really strong support .
So , thank you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time !
Support overall has fallen off to where it is less now than what it once was pre-COVID .
Most who have discontinued have said they were discontinuing support because their financial situation has changed .
I can certainly understand that .
Mine has , too .
A few have said it is because Patron Posts don ’ t come often enough .
; but , as I ’ ve said , Patron Posts are meant as a thank-you , not a paid prescription , because my goal is to make as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available to as many as possible during these dark times .
What you are really paying for with that support is to keep ALL the content on this site coming because the ad revenue truly only covers the cost of hosting the site , backing up the site in a separate storage facility , and registering the domain each year so that Patron money can fully go to supporting the writing itself .
I am certain I have also lost some support for criticizing Trump , but I am , as I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critic.
” I ’ m also an equal-opportunity comedian at times , so my lampooning and sarcasm go to all politicians when they do dumb things .
I won ’ t let the fall-off of support because of party politics determine my content .
ONLY my sense of truth determines that .
I ’ d rather quit writing on economics than change how I shine the light of truth and the sharp laser of humor where people don ’ t want to see ; and I ’ m no more critical of Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Biden , if he wins .
Biden is just as likely to keep supporting the rich establishment as Trump did when he drained the swamp into the White House basement by putting Goldman Sachs and other banksters in charge of all financial departments of government … again … just as all presidents before him did .
Hence , the big Trump Rally in stocks that , for a fact , did NOTHING for the stagnant economy .
The economy remained flat in terms of its growth rate and falling in terms of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the full course of time in which the stock market soared , and then it blew to pieces when the COVID comet hit earth .
Hopefully Employment Security eventually submits to the results of my August 5 appeal hearing .
So far … still waiting .
Your support is what keeps the light on .
( So much for one of my rare pleas .
Even National Public Radio makes such pleas more often than I do and takes a lot longer to make them ! )

by David Haggith
This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom.
As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a subliminal desire in the market to keep plumbing the bottom to find that depth.
Dave-Portnoy daydream traders notwithstanding, this is where the market’s undertow wants to pull it. I’m not saying it will get there, but that is the level at which the stock market would finally find substantial technical support and possibly economic convergence. The economy, at present, would strongly support stocks at that level … unless the economy falls further; then even that level could look overvalued.
Just one more chart
If the economy goes lower (more unemployment than where we now rest and continued decline in overall GDP (not GDP growth rate), here’s the next lower level and likely ultimate rock bottom. As you can see, the market’s longterm trend PRE-Fed rigging would support a slightly lower level as the maximum return to trend.
The strong support reflected in the first graph will probably prevent that from happening; but this would be the worse-case scenario, provided the earth doesn’t get hit by some greater natural castastrophe than what we have already seen. At the 1,500 level there is tremendous support, even without Fed interventions.
Of course, there is also the imaginary line one could draw straight across the bottoms of the last two recessions (S&P about 800); but we’ll leave that worst-case scenario for something like a major asteroid impact because those levels were established by where the market found proximate support from its PRE-FED trend line, busting slightly slightly below the line the last time but then recovering to bounce along that trend line for the next two years.
That’s all. Just a couple of snapshots this time of the possible paths ahead to keep in the back of your mind, which is where I keep them.
Elon Musk Portrait Painting Collage | Danor Shtruzman / CC BY-SA
Such stuff as dreams are made on
Well, I don’t keep them in the back of your mind, but in the back of mine. I’ll limit my intrusion into the storage space of your mind to this space here on the Great Recession Blog. Don’t count on your government, however, to limit its intrusion.
Elon Musk, the demi-god at whose feet Dave Portnoy worships, after all, is already perfecting a brain-chip implant to “help us compete” with artificial intelligence in the sublime future that lies ahead. If that happens, who knows what coding the government will slip in or how it will manage to hack your artificially stimulated brain, even if Elon doesn’t give it a back door in — a whole new Fed frontier!
Maybe Elon is already testing the chip on himself like a mad scientist; in which case, bugs in the beta version would explain some of his bizarre misfires. (You can almost see the sparks and smoke of his fried genius brain inside his eyeballs.) Ah, what stuff the future holds for future themes on The Great Recession Blog — such stuff as nightmares are made on.
With a little vaccination digital identification patch, compliments of Bill Gates, who knows where the American oligarchs can take us? I hope to remain able to be here and shine some intrusive light into those dark holes the future holds.
Source: Surian Soosay / CC BY (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0) (Modified with dollars signs over Skype logo)
Stay posted by keeping me posted
Don’t forget to consider supporting your intrepid and intentionally boisterous prognosticator. My next article will be another Patron Post on central-bank trajectories … unless, of course, this weird year of 2020, where my foresight seems to have been sharp so far, throws us another wild card.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Patron Posts, by the way, are not intended as a paid subscription — just a thank-you for your support that offers a wider-picture view of our trajectory. That support is what makes all the content here possible, as it is how I measure whether the content is TRULY worth something to people in their own estimation.
But, whether I can continue, is up to you, as dark times also press me to find and focus on avenues of writing that help offset the losses of unemployment for which I have so far seen zero benefits since my COVID layoff in May (March and April having been covered by my employer). Employment Security told me my article writing (though it is nothing but a small sideline of income) makes me self-employed (because of the rare times I got paid for my articles from one site I was writing for this past spring when unemployment hit).
On that basis, they determined I am unqualified because I’m also not a contract worker. Writing articles, as it turns out so far (though I’ve won an appeal but not seen the results of that either), has cost me far more than what I could have made by doing nothing at all and resting on unemployment.
That’s the cost of being honest in what you report to Employment Security, even when you know they won’t be able to comprehend the nuances. I anticipated it would play out that way but reported honestly anyway.
All the while, I have soldiered on with the writing that cost me those unemployment benefits (including the government’s $600 per week augmentation of UI benefits, more than I make per month off of contributions). I do so because the support of a few says this is meaningful to some (where it actually counts for them because it costs them something). That is meaningful at a heart level to me, too. One person has even just added some really strong support. So, thank you for that as it came just in time!
Support overall has fallen off to where it is less now than what it once was pre-COVID. Most who have discontinued have said they were discontinuing support because their financial situation has changed. I can certainly understand that. Mine has, too.
A few have said it is because Patron Posts don’t come often enough.; but, as I’ve said, Patron Posts are meant as a thank-you, not a paid prescription, because my goal is to make as much information (and hopefully insight) available to as many as possible during these dark times. What you are really paying for with that support is to keep ALL the content on this site coming because the ad revenue truly only covers the cost of hosting the site, backing up the site in a separate storage facility, and registering the domain each year so that Patron money can fully go to supporting the writing itself.
I am certain I have also lost some support for criticizing Trump, but I am, as I’ve always said, “an equal-opportunity critic.” I’m also an equal-opportunity comedian at times, so my lampooning and sarcasm go to all politicians when they do dumb things.
I won’t let the fall-off of support because of party politics determine my content. ONLY my sense of truth determines that. I’d rather quit writing on economics than change how I shine the light of truth and the sharp laser of humor where people don’t want to see; and I’m no more critical of Trump than you are likely to find me of Biden, if he wins.
Biden is just as likely to keep supporting the rich establishment as Trump did when he drained the swamp into the White House basement by putting Goldman Sachs and other banksters in charge of all financial departments of government … again … just as all presidents before him did.
Hence, the big Trump Rally in stocks that, for a fact, did NOTHING for the stagnant economy. The economy remained flat in terms of its growth rate and falling in terms of sales, manufacturing and eventually services, over the full course of time in which the stock market soared, and then it blew to pieces when the COVID comet hit earth.
Hopefully Employment Security eventually submits to the results of my August 5 appeal hearing. So far … still waiting. Your support is what keeps the light on. (So much for one of my rare pleas. Even National Public Radio makes such pleas more often than I do and takes a lot longer to make them!)
Shining the bright light of truth into a blurry world.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-14--Michael Pento: Overvalued Stocks Head Into The Bunker

The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets .
Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them .
However , what it can not do , nor can anyone else , is anticipate every short-term selloff in stocks .
While the IDEC strategy protects and profits from bear markets , it also tends to soften the blow from short-term selloffs and prevents us from panicking at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the case in the latest plunge that started on September 3rd and lasted just three brutal days .
Having said that , I am very concerned about the market right now and heading into the election .
The reasons are as follows : While it is true that the Fed is indeed stuck at the 0 % bound for many years , it is also true that its balance sheet has stopped increasing at the multiple trillion-dollar torrid pace seen earlier this year .
In fact , it has not only just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shrink .
The balance sheet has decreased by $ 100 billion in the past 3 months .
Another reason for caution is the upcoming vote this November 3rd .
There is a good chance it could be marked by election-related chaos such as this nation has ever seen before .
The normal peaceful transfer of power , which has been a hallmark of this country , is in huge jeopardy this time around because both parties will claim election malfeasance .
If Mr. Trump loses the election , he has already stated that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to massive mail-in ballot fraud .
And , if Mr. Biden loses the election , the radical left , which is already taking over cities and burning them down , may light many more of them on fire due to its view that Russia has corrupted the results once again .
In either case , the election seems to be a dead heat , and this nation appears to be moving closer and closer to civil war on both racial and economic fronts .
The surging wealth gap is primarily to blame for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsible for its creation and expansion .
In addition , the massive fiscal cliff that I have been warning about has arrived .
The $ 3 trillion that was borrowed by the government and printed by the Fed has been exhausted .
No further Paycheck Protection Program grants/loans have been approved , and those that have been disseminated have been spent .
There are no more $ 1,000 checks per adult and $ 500 checks per child in helicopter money arriving any longer .
The CARES ACT enhanced unemployment funds are dry .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ authorized by President Trump using FEMA dollars , which paid a $ 300-a-week federal supplement to unemployment benefits , will end by mid-September .
Wall Street has one hope to propel the bubble higher ; it is clinging to the much-anticipated and greatly-hyped vaccine that is supposed to arrive ( conveniently ) on November 1st .
Of course , a vaccine would be wonderful news for the world .
However , it does not at all mean the Wuhan virus will cease to be an issue immediately before election day .
In contrast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beginning of the long process of hopefully eradicating the virus from humans .
And it will also mark the start of when some very tough questions begin to get answered .
For example : How effective is the vaccine , and how safe will it be ?
We received a wakeup call on that front on Tuesday , when AstraZeneca ’ s vaccine trial was halted due to safety concerns .
Other concerns revolve around how fast a vaccine will get distributed to the general public–the initial FDA approval will only be for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of people end up taking a vaccine that was developed at hyper-warp speed ?
Nobody knows the exact answers to those questions at this time , but what is known for sure is that the pandemic will be an issue well into the first half of 2021–at the very least .
What will also be an issue are the scars left behind…scars that Wall Street is completely blind to .
Mainly , there are the growth and productivity-killing aspects associated with an economy that must now lug around an additional $ 3.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 trillion run-rate of new business debt .
Keep in mind the level of business debt was already at a record relative to the economy before the pandemic surfaced .
And now it has vastly increased the number of zombie corporations alive , whose current business model is to feed off of the Fed ’ s free money to satisfy debt service needs .
And most regrettably , there is the number of people who have become permanently unemployed due to COVID-19 .
According to the August NFP report , the permanently-unemployed rolls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — the highest level since 2013 .
This figure has jumped by a cumulative 2.1 million people since February .
As of August 11th , there are about 155,000 total business closures reported on Yelp since March 1st .
About 91,000 of the closures are permanent .
These are the businesses that have closed entirely , but countless more are suffering from revenue and earnings shocks , which is causing them to lay off employees at the rate of about 1 million per week .
The Predictive components of our IDEC Model are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ macroeconomic conditions of disinflation and recession .
This should be the case for awhile unless and until we get another massive fiscal package from D.C .
The market-driven components are also starting to confirm the economy ’ s direction is going south .
However , it is too early to get net-short until the high-frequency components give us a similar signal .
We will continue to try and proactively protect your assets , instead of getting passively slaughtered like the rest of Wall Street is set up to suffer once again .
Michael @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pento Portfolio Strategies , produces the weekly podcast called , “ The Mid-week Reality Check ” and Author of the book “ The Coming Bond Market Collapse .
”

From Pento Portfolio Strategies:
The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them.
However, what it cannot do, nor can anyone else, is anticipate every short-term selloff in stocks. While the IDEC strategy protects and profits from bear markets, it also tends to soften the blow from short-term selloffs and prevents us from panicking at the bottom of every brief correction. This was the case in the latest plunge that started on September 3rd and lasted just three brutal days.
Having said that, I am very concerned about the market right now and heading into the election. The reasons are as follows: While it is true that the Fed is indeed stuck at the 0% bound for many years, it is also true that its balance sheet has stopped increasing at the multiple trillion-dollar torrid pace seen earlier this year. In fact, it has not only just plateaued; it has actually begun to shrink. The balance sheet has decreased by $100 billion in the past 3 months.
Another reason for caution is the upcoming vote this November 3rd. There is a good chance it could be marked by election-related chaos such as this nation has ever seen before. The normal peaceful transfer of power, which has been a hallmark of this country, is in huge jeopardy this time around because both parties will claim election malfeasance. If Mr. Trump loses the election, he has already stated that he may not accept the results due to massive mail-in ballot fraud. And, if Mr. Biden loses the election, the radical left, which is already taking over cities and burning them down, may light many more of them on fire due to its view that Russia has corrupted the results once again. In either case, the election seems to be a dead heat, and this nation appears to be moving closer and closer to civil war on both racial and economic fronts. The surging wealth gap is primarily to blame for this, and the Fed is primarily responsible for its creation and expansion.
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In addition, the massive fiscal cliff that I have been warning about has arrived. The $3 trillion that was borrowed by the government and printed by the Fed has been exhausted. No further Paycheck Protection Program grants/loans have been approved, and those that have been disseminated have been spent. There are no more $1,000 checks per adult and $500 checks per child in helicopter money arriving any longer. The CARES ACT enhanced unemployment funds are dry. And, the Lost Wages Assistance program authorized by President Trump using FEMA dollars, which paid a $300-a-week federal supplement to unemployment benefits, will end by mid-September.
Wall Street has one hope to propel the bubble higher; it is clinging to the much-anticipated and greatly-hyped vaccine that is supposed to arrive (conveniently) on November 1st. Of course, a vaccine would be wonderful news for the world. However, it does not at all mean the Wuhan virus will cease to be an issue immediately before election day. In contrast, the vaccine will herald at the beginning of the long process of hopefully eradicating the virus from humans. And it will also mark the start of when some very tough questions begin to get answered. For example: How effective is the vaccine, and how safe will it be? We received a wakeup call on that front on Tuesday, when AstraZeneca’s vaccine trial was halted due to safety concerns. Other concerns revolve around how fast a vaccine will get distributed to the general public–the initial FDA approval will only be for Emergency Use Authorization. And, what percent of people end up taking a vaccine that was developed at hyper-warp speed? Nobody knows the exact answers to those questions at this time, but what is known for sure is that the pandemic will be an issue well into the first half of 2021–at the very least.
What will also be an issue are the scars left behind…scars that Wall Street is completely blind to. Mainly, there are the growth and productivity-killing aspects associated with an economy that must now lug around an additional $3.3 trillion in National debt and a $3 trillion run-rate of new business debt. Keep in mind the level of business debt was already at a record relative to the economy before the pandemic surfaced. And now it has vastly increased the number of zombie corporations alive, whose current business model is to feed off of the Fed’s free money to satisfy debt service needs. And most regrettably, there is the number of people who have become permanently unemployed due to COVID-19. According to the August NFP report, the permanently-unemployed rolls soared by 534,000 to reach 3.4 million — the highest level since 2013. This figure has jumped by a cumulative 2.1 million people since February. As of August 11th, there are about 155,000 total business closures reported on Yelp since March 1st. About 91,000 of the closures are permanent. These are the businesses that have closed entirely, but countless more are suffering from revenue and earnings shocks, which is causing them to lay off employees at the rate of about 1 million per week.
The Predictive components of our IDEC Model are signaling the economy is heading into the macroeconomic conditions of disinflation and recession. This should be the case for awhile unless and until we get another massive fiscal package from D.C. The market-driven components are also starting to confirm the economy’s direction is going south. However, it is too early to get net-short until the high-frequency components give us a similar signal. We will continue to try and proactively protect your assets, instead of getting passively slaughtered like the rest of Wall Street is set up to suffer once again.
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, produces the weekly podcast called, “The Mid-week Reality Check” and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”