investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--All These Unemployment Claims Will Be The Final Nail In The Coffin For Small Businesses…

The cost of an individual UI claim depends on how much the employee made , how long they remain on unemployment , and the state ’ s maximum benefit amount .
The average amount paid out on an unemployment claim is $ 4200 , but can cost up to $ 12,000 or even more .
State governments get the money to pay claims by debiting the employer ’ s UI account ( in states that require an account balance ) or by raising the employer ’ s UI taxes .
A deduction in the account balance may also cause a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taxable payroll and the account balance changes .
Each claim assessed to an employer ’ s account can result in a tax rate increase in future years .
So the real story isn ’ t the cost of an individual claim ( though it can be significant ) .
It ’ s the higher tax rate that will have a long-term impact .
The state formulas generally use a three-year moving period to assign a tax rate .
Each awarded unemployment claim can affect three years of UI tax rates .
Employers often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a claim since it ’ s spread out over a long period .
The average claim can increase an employer ’ s state tax premium $ 4,000 to $ 7,000 over the course of three years .
However , it can be far more , eclipsing the cost of the claim itself .
Not winning claims can easily cost employers tens of thousands of dollars annually , if not more .
For example , say an employer has a million dollar taxable payroll and a UI tax rate of 1 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ tax premiums .
After claims are assessed to its account , the rate goes up to 5 % .
Premiums rise to $ 50,000 .
The UI tax rate clearly makes a difference to an employer ’ s bottom line .

The cost of an individual UI claim depends on how much the employee made, how long they remain on unemployment, and the state’s maximum benefit amount. The average amount paid out on an unemployment claim is $4200, but can cost up to $12,000 or even more.
State governments get the money to pay claims by debiting the employer’s UI account (in states that require an account balance) or by raising the employer’s UI taxes. A deduction in the account balance may also cause a rate increase, as the ratio between taxable payroll and the account balance changes. Each claim assessed to an employer’s account can result in a tax rate increase in future years.
So the real story isn’t the cost of an individual claim (though it can be significant). It’s the higher tax rate that will have a long-term impact.
The state formulas generally use a three-year moving period to assign a tax rate. Each awarded unemployment claim can affect three years of UI tax rates. Employers often don’t realize the real cost of a claim since it’s spread out over a long period.
The average claim can increase an employer’s state tax premium $4,000 to $7,000 over the course of three years. However, it can be far more, eclipsing the cost of the claim itself. Not winning claims can easily cost employers tens of thousands of dollars annually, if not more.
For example, say an employer has a million dollar taxable payroll and a UI tax rate of 1%. That’s $10,000 in unemployment tax premiums. After claims are assessed to its account, the rate goes up to 5%. Premiums rise to $50,000. The UI tax rate clearly makes a difference to an employer’s bottom line.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--China censors statement by 27 European ambassadors, removes line about coronavirus coming from China

Brussels : European Union officials on Thursday defended their handling of relations with China during the coronavirus pandemic , a day after the EU ambassador to Beijing allowed an opinion article about EU-Chinese relations that he co-wrote to be censored before publication in a state-run newspaper .
The censored phrase was a reference to the Chinese origins of the virus : “ the outbreak of the coronavirus in China , and its subsequent spread to the rest of the world.
” The censorship marked the second time in two weeks that the European Commission ’ s foreign policy branch made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down criticism , after it softened elements of a leaked report that analysed Chinese coronavirus disinformation before publishing the final version .
The incidents indicate a discordant approach from Europe toward China at a moment when the continent is heading into what it expects will be the worst economic collapse in its post-World War II history .
Europe is eager for Chinese trade as an economic lifeline and seeks to hedge its bets if China manages to be the first to develop a vaccine against the virus .
But it also prides itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ press freedoms and human rights – all areas where European policymakers have criticised Beijing .
“ We regret that this op-ed , that this joint op-ed was not published in full by the China Daily , ” European Commission spokeswoman Virginie Battu-Henriksson told reporters Thursday .
“ The EU delegation to China made known its concern to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China in no uncertain terms.
” It was with “ considerable reluctance ” that the delegation agreed to the publication of the censored article , Battu-Henriksson said .
She said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the broader benefit from publishing the messages contained within the edited version of the opinion article outweighed its unhappiness over the line ’ s removal .
The op-ed was published Wednesday and was co-signed by the ambassadors to China of the 27 EU member states .

Brussels: European Union officials on Thursday defended their handling of relations with China during the coronavirus pandemic, a day after the EU ambassador to Beijing allowed an opinion article about EU-Chinese relations that he co-wrote to be censored before publication in a state-run newspaper.
The censored phrase was a reference to the Chinese origins of the virus: “the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, and its subsequent spread to the rest of the world.”
The censorship marked the second time in two weeks that the European Commission’s foreign policy branch made a concession to Chinese demands to tone down criticism, after it softened elements of a leaked report that analysed Chinese coronavirus disinformation before publishing the final version.
The incidents indicate a discordant approach from Europe toward China at a moment when the continent is heading into what it expects will be the worst economic collapse in its post-World War II history.
Europe is eager for Chinese trade as an economic lifeline and seeks to hedge its bets if China manages to be the first to develop a vaccine against the virus.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But it also prides itself as a defender of liberal democracy, press freedoms and human rights – all areas where European policymakers have criticised Beijing.
“We regret that this op-ed, that this joint op-ed was not published in full by the China Daily,” European Commission spokeswoman Virginie Battu-Henriksson told reporters Thursday. “The EU delegation to China made known its concern to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China in no uncertain terms.”
It was with “considerable reluctance” that the delegation agreed to the publication of the censored article, Battu-Henriksson said. She said the EU mission in China ultimately decided that the broader benefit from publishing the messages contained within the edited version of the opinion article outweighed its unhappiness over the line’s removal.
The op-ed was published Wednesday and was co-signed by the ambassadors to China of the 27 EU member states.
www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/europe/beijing-censors-reference-to-china-s-role-in-outbreak-in-eu-op-ed-putting-bloc-on-defensive-20200508-p54r0i.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--Stocks rise on hope that worst of economic plunge has passed…  NASDAQ — POSITIVE FOR YEAR…  Algorith

Stocks rise on hope that worst of economic plunge has passed…  NASDAQ — POSITIVE FOR YEAR…  Algorithms Behind Recovery?

Stocks rise on hope that worst of economic plunge has passed TOKYO ( AP ) — Asian shares surged Friday on optimism the worst of the economic fallout from the pandemic may be over , as Wall Street logged its biggest rally in a week .
Japan ’ s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 1.8 % to 20,025.91 .
South Korea ’ s Kospi jumped 1.3 % to 1,954.48 .
Australia ’ s S & P/ASX 200 rose 0.8 % to 5,408.90 .
Hong Kong ’ s Hang Seng rose 1 % to 24,220.86 , while the Shanghai Composite picked up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Street , the S & P 500 climbed 1.2 % for its third gain in four days , following similar increases in European markets .
Other areas of the market were still showing much more pessimism , though , including bonds .
“ Plenty of dark clouds out there , but we have gone through pretty tempestuous economic times before , and this , too , shall pass , ” Stephen Innes , chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp , said in a report .
“ This is a policy-induced downturn , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could track a different path from previous recessions .
The bounce-back will be much quicker .
”

Stocks rise on hope that worst of economic plunge has passed
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares surged Friday on optimism the worst of the economic fallout from the pandemic may be over, as Wall Street logged its biggest rally in a week.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 1.8% to 20,025.91. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.3% to 1,954.48. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.8% to 5,408.90. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1% to 24,220.86, while the Shanghai Composite picked up 0.7% to 2,891.83.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% for its third gain in four days, following similar increases in European markets. Other areas of the market were still showing much more pessimism, though, including bonds.
“Plenty of dark clouds out there, but we have gone through pretty tempestuous economic times before, and this, too, shall pass,” Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp, said in a report.
“This is a policy-induced downturn, and the speed and structure of the recovery could track a different path from previous recessions. The bounce-back will be much quicker.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--ITALY knows it’s a hoax! Leader screams “STOP LYING – I HAVE THE TRUE NUMBERS”

Good for him !
Not one politician in our country has had the nerve or courage to be this blunt @ @ @

Good for him! Not one politician in our country has had the nerve or courage to be this blunt and bold.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--Pentagon Confirms to @TheNationalUAE it’s Rotating assets out of #Saudi Arabia but no change in coun

Joyce Karam @ Joyce_Karam · 1h BREAKING : Pentagon Confirms to @ TheNationalUAE it ’ s Rotating assets out of @ @ @ @ @ change in counter # Iran threat .
Joyce Karam @ Joyce_Karam · 58m What could @ @ @ @ @ of oil prices demand/supply tension between US & Kingdom ( US closer to Russian position @ @ @ @ @ and globally post-COVID : Asia & ISIS 3- Iran-US detente

Joyce Karam
@Joyce_Karam
·
1h
BREAKING: Pentagon Confirms to
@TheNationalUAE
it’s Rotating assets out of #Saudi Arabia but no change in counter #Iran threat.
WSJ reported that US moving Patriot missile batteries. Trump Putin phone call today
www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/us-to-remove-patriot-missile-batteries-from-saudi-arabia-1.1016472
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Joyce Karam
@Joyce_Karam
·
58m
What could be happening:
1- Part of oil prices demand/supply tension between US & Kingdom (US closer to Russian position)
2- Changing threats regionally and globally post-COVID: Asia & ISIS
3- Iran-US detente
What could be happening: 1- Part of oil prices demand/supply tension between US & Kingdom (US closer to Russian position)
2- Changing threats regionally and globally post-COVID: Asia & ISIS
3- Iran-US detente — Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) May 8, 2020
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--HUGE: Crowdstrike, the firm behind the accusation that Russia hacked & stole DNC emails, admitted to

HUGE: Crowdstrike, the firm behind the accusation that Russia hacked & stole DNC emails, admitted to Congress that it has no direct evidence Russia actually stole/exfiltrated the emails.

I want to stress what a pretty big revelation this is .
Crowdstrike , the firm behind the accusation that @ @ @ @ @ emails , admitted to Congress that it has no direct evidence Russia actually stole/exfiltrated the @ @ @ @ @ president Shaun Henry : pic.twitter.com/UCGSyO2rLt

I want to stress what a pretty big revelation this is. Crowdstrike, the firm behind the accusation that Russia hacked & stole DNC emails, admitted to Congress that it has no direct evidence Russia actually stole/exfiltrated the emails. More from Crowdstrike president Shaun Henry: pic.twitter.com/UCGSyO2rLt
— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) May 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--A dangerous gap: The market v the real economy — The Economist, May 7 2020 edn.

Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy .
Something has to give STOCK MARKET HISTORY is packed with drama : the 1929 crash ; Black Monday in 1987 , when share prices lost 20 % in a day ; the dotcom mania in 1999 .
With such precedents , nothing should come as a surprise , but the past eight weeks have been remarkable , nonetheless .
A gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally in America .
Between February 19th and March 23rd , the S & P 500 index lost a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pause it has since rocketed , recovering more than half its loss .
The catalyst was news that the Federal Reserve would buy corporate bonds , helping big firms finance their debts .
Investors shifted from panic to optimism without missing a beat .
This rosy view from Wall Street should make you uneasy ( see article ) .
It contrasts with markets elsewhere .
Shares in Britain and continental Europe , for example , have recovered more sluggishly .
And it is a world away from life on Main Street .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the blow to jobs has been savage , with unemployment rising from 4 % to about 16 % , the highest rate since records began in 1948 .
While big firms ’ shares soar and they get help from the Fed , small businesses are struggling to get cash from Uncle Sam .
Wounds from the financial crisis of 2007-09 are being reopened .
“ This is the second time we ’ ve bailed their asses out , ” grumbled Joe Biden , the Democratic presidential candidate , last month .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ burdens of the pandemic is just beginning .
On the present trajectory , a backlash against big business is likely .
Start with events in the markets .
Much of the improved mood is because of the Fed , which has acted more dramatically than other central banks , buying up assets on an unimagined scale .
It is committed to purchasing even more corporate debt , including high-yield “ junk ” bonds .
The market for new issues of corporate bonds , which froze in February , has reopened in spectacular style @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonds in the past six weeks , double the normal level .
Even beached cruise-line firms have been able to raise cash , albeit at a high price .
A cascade of bankruptcies at big firms has been forestalled .
The central bank has , in effect , backstopped the cashflow of America Inc .
The stockmarket has taken the hint and climbed .
The Fed has little choice—a run on the corporate-bond market would worsen a deep recession .
Investors have cheered it on by piling into shares .
They have nowhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government-bond yields are barely positive in America .
They are negative in Japan and much of Europe .
You are guaranteed to lose money by holding them to maturity , and if inflation rises the losses would be painful .
So stocks are appealing .
By late March prices had fallen by enough to tempt the braver sort .
They steeled themselves with the observation that much of the stockmarket ’ s value is tied to profits that will be made long after the covid-19 slump has given way to recovery .
Tellingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share prices has been uneven .
Even before the pandemic the market was lopsided , and it has become more so .
Bourses in Britain and continental Europe , chock-full of troubled industries like carmaking , banking and energy , have lagged behind , and there are renewed jitters over the single currency ( see article ) .
In America investors have put even more faith in a tiny group of tech darlings—Alphabet , Amazon , Apple , Facebook and Microsoft—which now make up a fifth of the S & P 500 index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a despairing reach for the handful of businesses judged to be all-weather survivors .
At one level , this makes good sense .
Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can .
But there is something wrong with how fast stock prices have moved and where they have got back to .
American shares are now higher than they were in August .
This would seem to imply that commerce and the broader economy can get back to business as usual .
There are countless threats to such a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The first is the risk of an aftershock .
It is entirely possible that there will be a second wave of infections .
And there are also the consequences of a steep recession to contend with—American GDP is expected to drop by about 10 % in the second quarter compared with a year earlier .
Many individual bosses hope that ruthless cost-cutting can help protect their margins and pay down the debts accumulated through the furlough .
But in aggregate this corporate austerity will depress demand .
The likely outcome is a 90 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels .

STOCK MARKET HISTORY is packed with drama: the 1929 crash; Black Monday in 1987, when share prices lost 20% in a day; the dotcom mania in 1999. With such precedents, nothing should come as a surprise, but the past eight weeks have been remarkable, nonetheless. A gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally in America. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the S&P 500 index lost a third of its value. With barely a pause it has since rocketed, recovering more than half its loss. The catalyst was news that the Federal Reserve would buy corporate bonds, helping big firms finance their debts. Investors shifted from panic to optimism without missing a beat.
This rosy view from Wall Street should make you uneasy (see article). It contrasts with markets elsewhere. Shares in Britain and continental Europe, for example, have recovered more sluggishly. And it is a world away from life on Main Street. Even as the lockdown eases in America, the blow to jobs has been savage, with unemployment rising from 4% to about 16%, the highest rate since records began in 1948. While big firms’ shares soar and they get help from the Fed, small businesses are struggling to get cash from Uncle Sam.
Wounds from the financial crisis of 2007-09 are being reopened. “This is the second time we’ve bailed their asses out,” grumbled Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, last month. The battle over who pays for the fiscal burdens of the pandemic is just beginning. On the present trajectory, a backlash against big business is likely.
Start with events in the markets. Much of the improved mood is because of the Fed, which has acted more dramatically than other central banks, buying up assets on an unimagined scale. It is committed to purchasing even more corporate debt, including high-yield “junk” bonds. The market for new issues of corporate bonds, which froze in February, has reopened in spectacular style. Companies have issued $560bn of bonds in the past six weeks, double the normal level. Even beached cruise-line firms have been able to raise cash, albeit at a high price. A cascade of bankruptcies at big firms has been forestalled. The central bank has, in effect, backstopped the cashflow of America Inc. The stockmarket has taken the hint and climbed.
The Fed has little choice—a run on the corporate-bond market would worsen a deep recession. Investors have cheered it on by piling into shares. They have nowhere else good to put their cash. Government-bond yields are barely positive in America. They are negative in Japan and much of Europe. You are guaranteed to lose money by holding them to maturity, and if inflation rises the losses would be painful. So stocks are appealing. By late March prices had fallen by enough to tempt the braver sort. They steeled themselves with the observation that much of the stockmarket’s value is tied to profits that will be made long after the covid-19 slump has given way to recovery.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Tellingly, though, the recent rise in share prices has been uneven. Even before the pandemic the market was lopsided, and it has become more so. Bourses in Britain and continental Europe, chock-full of troubled industries like carmaking, banking and energy, have lagged behind, and there are renewed jitters over the single currency (see article). In America investors have put even more faith in a tiny group of tech darlings—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—which now make up a fifth of the S&P 500 index. There is little euphoria, just a despairing reach for the handful of businesses judged to be all-weather survivors.
At one level, this makes good sense. Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can. But there is something wrong with how fast stock prices have moved and where they have got back to. American shares are now higher than they were in August. This would seem to imply that commerce and the broader economy can get back to business as usual. There are countless threats to such a prospect, but three stand out.
The first is the risk of an aftershock. It is entirely possible that there will be a second wave of infections. And there are also the consequences of a steep recession to contend with—American GDP is expected to drop by about 10% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Many individual bosses hope that ruthless cost-cutting can help protect their margins and pay down the debts accumulated through the furlough. But in aggregate this corporate austerity will depress demand. The likely outcome is a 90% economy, running far below normal levels.
…
…


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-08--If fate really does love irony, then Warren Buffett stepping into the gold market becoming the catal

If fate really does love irony , then Warren Buffett stepping into the gold market becoming the catalyst for a @ @ @ @ @ true money would be perfection .
t.co/erpFHYSSU6

If fate really does love irony, then Warren Buffett stepping into the gold market becoming the catalyst for a mad dash into the only true money would be perfection. t.co/erpFHYSSU6
— Grant Williams (@ttmygh) May 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Meat Shortages Go Mainstream with Rations and Menu Changes: How to Keep Meat on Your Table

Chalk it up to a side effect nobody ever expected from the pandemic : meat is becoming difficult to get .
Who would have expected this to result in grocery stores across the country rationing meat purchases ?
Who would have ever thought the COVID-19 virus would mean that places like Wendy ’ s would stop selling burgers altogether and that McDonald ’ s would cut its menu to only a handful of offerings ?
Workers at meat packaging plants have been especially hard hit with the coronavirus .
Almost 60 % of the employees at one Tyson plant in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Plants everywhere are shutting down for the safety of their employees and despite President Trump ’ s invocation of the Defense Production Act to force them to reopen , many workers have refused to return to the plants .
Factory farms have culled millions of cows , hogs , and chickens because they can not be to plants that are either closed or reducing the amount of meat they ’ re able to process while practicing social distancing .
Historically , the centralization of food has always ended in disaster .
Unfortunately , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ centralized our own food supply , and here we are .
Do the meat shortages mean that you have to become a vegetarian ?
While that is one option , here are some other ways to keep meat on the table at your house .
One of the best ways to acquire meat is to purchase in bulk and to do so locally .
You can buy a quarter or a half of a pig or cow and have it processed into your favorite cuts .
As well , you are locking in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at once .
This way , you won ’ t be as strongly affected by meat inflation until next season .
Here are a few tips for bulk purchases of meat • If that is more meat than your family can use or more money than you can spend right now , consider going in with another family and splitting the purchase .
• You need a deep freezer in order to make the most of such a large purchase .
• I also like to can meat so that I am not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Look into canning entire roasts , meatballs , or chili .
You can also check out my canning cookbook for more canning recipes .
• Have the poorer cuts turned into stew meat or ground meat .
• Slow cooking a lower quality cut can turn something tough into something that melts in your mouth .
Here ’ s a thorough guide to buying a side of beef .
You ’ re more likely in the future to get meat in cuts to which you are unaccustomed , so , for example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of boneless skinless chicken breasts .
You will be more likely to cook a stew or a roast .
Have a plan for what you can do with those leftovers to extend them through another meal .
Here are a few quick ideas : • Make gravy .
If you have a serving of meat too small to go around for all of your family members , consider making gravy and serving it over mashed potatoes .
Add some onion and mushrooms to the gravy to extend it even further .
• Make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another way to extend a serving that isn ’ t quite big enough to go around • Mix it with beans and add Mexican seasoning to make burritos or to serve over rice .
• When you make a large roast , thinly slice the meat for sandwiches and salads throughout the work and school week .
• Cover leftover stew with pie crust or biscuit dough for a delicious potpie • Look for recipes specifically written to use up leftovers .
• If you have more leftovers than you can use before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ canned – check out the instructions here for some examples .
You can find more ideas for repurposing leftovers HERE .
This PDF guide has lots of recipes that use less meat and leftovers to make tasty meals .
Use up the things that most people throw away .
When preparing the meat , if you are cutting away some fat or bone , place it in a bowl and put it in the freezer .
When you have enough like scraps of meat , it ’ s time to make broth from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from ham , turkey , chicken , beef , or pork – virtually any kind of meat .
Use the inedible parts and cook it down for hours to get a rich and delicious broth .
You can then use this broth as a base for soup or to cook your rice in to add a hit of nutrition .
Here are directions on how to make and can poultry broth and ham broth .
There are some great ideas for not letting any meat go to waste in this article .
Do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leftovers that it won ’ t equal a full serving ?
Start a container in your freezer for those leftovers and create “ leftover soup ” .
Sometimes it ’ s fantastic , sometimes it isn ’ t so great , but those odds and ends can combine to make meals that I consider to be basically “ freebies.
” We always have a large Tupperware container in the freezer that contains little bits of vegetables or meat .
Add a jar of homemade broth and a handful of rice , barley , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ created “ leftover soup.
” It will be different every single time , based on your family ’ s leftovers .
If you live in a place where this is possible , it may be time to start raising your own meat .
If you are in suburbia , rabbits could be your best option , since they ’ re quiet and unobtrusive .
Even cities that allow you to have some laying hens tend to frown upon residents butchering those hens in the backyard .
If you live more rurally , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , turkeys , and pigs are all reasonable ways to get started raising your own meat .
If you are worried about the slaughter , you may be able to work out a barter with someone who is skilled at butchering meat in exchange for some of the harvest .
This answer isn ’ t for everyone .
Some folks prefer to forget that the meat on the styrofoam trays at the grocery store didn ’ t originate on those trays .
Others have gotten locked into a more narrow definition of “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are fish , pork , beef , and chicken , and that nothing else exists .
However , if you aren ’ t bothered by the concept of hunting , there is an abundance of meat walking , swimming , and flying around .
Invest in a good game cookbook to best prepare meats that may not be familiar to you .
You don ’ t have to hunt , yourself .
In the past , I had some friends and neighbors who hunt .
In exchange for some of the bounty , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ canning things like venison chili or moose meatballs in spaghetti sauce .
If you fish , that can put an instant meal on the table .
Learning to quickly and efficiently clean fish is a great skill and can gently prepare you for butchering other types of meat .
Perhaps with the sharp uptick in meat prices and the rations , it ’ s time to brush up on these skills and learn to harvest what is naturally abundant in your area .
Use less meat in your recipes .
If you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then you ’ ll have to adjust to using less meat .
Instead of making meat the star of the show , try using less of it in your meals .
• Use it as a condiment .
Throw in a small piece of ham or a couple of slices of bacon when making bean soup .
Crumble crisp bacon on top of casseroles or potato dishes .
• Mix meat with another protein source .
This is less noticeable in meals with strong spices .
In your chili , use more beans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• If you eat soy products , try mixing soaked texturized vegetable protein half and a half with ground beef in recipes that call for it .
• Cooked lentils can also be mixed with ground beef in stews , soups , and casseroles .
• Stir-fries can make a little bit of meat go a long way while still providing a tasty , nutritious meal for your family .
While your meat and potatoes family members may not be delighted , there may not be an option for some families other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you found this article useful , be sure to sign up for our newsletter .
How do you get meat if you ’ re facing rations ?
What is the meat situation at your local stores ?
Do you think these shortages will continue long-term ?
Share your thoughts in the comments .
Daisy Luther writes about current events , preparedness , frugality , voluntaryism , and the pursuit of liberty on her website , The Organic Prepper .
She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , PreppersDailyNews.com .
Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company .
You can find her on Facebook , Pinterest , and Twitter .

by Daisy Luther
Chalk it up to a side effect nobody ever expected from the pandemic: meat is becoming difficult to get. Who would have expected this to result in grocery stores across the country rationing meat purchases? Who would have ever thought the COVID-19 virus would mean that places like Wendy’s would stop selling burgers altogether and that McDonald’s would cut its menu to only a handful of offerings?
Workers at meat packaging plants have been especially hard hit with the coronavirus. Almost 60% of the employees at one Tyson plant in Iowa have tested positive for COVID. Plants everywhere are shutting down for the safety of their employees and despite President Trump’s invocation of the Defense Production Act to force them to reopen, many workers have refused to return to the plants. Factory farms have culled millions of cows, hogs, and chickens because they cannot be to plants that are either closed or reducing the amount of meat they’re able to process while practicing social distancing.
Historically, the centralization of food has always ended in disaster. Unfortunately, giant CAFO operations and USDA approval have centralized our own food supply, and here we are.
Do the meat shortages mean that you have to become a vegetarian? While that is one option, here are some other ways to keep meat on the table at your house.
Buy in bulk locally
One of the best ways to acquire meat is to purchase in bulk and to do so locally. You can buy a quarter or a half of a pig or cow and have it processed into your favorite cuts. As well, you are locking in your meat price by purchasing it all at once. This way, you won’t be as strongly affected by meat inflation until next season.
Here are a few tips for bulk purchases of meat
If that is more meat than your family can use or more money than you can spend right now, consider going in with another family and splitting the purchase.
You need a deep freezer in order to make the most of such a large purchase.
I also like to can meat so that I am not as dependent on the electrical grid. Look into canning entire roasts, meatballs, or chili. You can also check out my canning cookbook for more canning recipes.
Have the poorer cuts turned into stew meat or ground meat.
Slow cooking a lower quality cut can turn something tough into something that melts in your mouth.
Here’s a thorough guide to buying a side of beef.
Eat leftovers
You’re more likely in the future to get meat in cuts to which you are unaccustomed, so, for example, whole chickens instead of a styrofoam tray of boneless skinless chicken breasts. You will be more likely to cook a stew or a roast. Have a plan for what you can do with those leftovers to extend them through another meal. Here are a few quick ideas:
Make gravy. If you have a serving of meat too small to go around for all of your family members, consider making gravy and serving it over mashed potatoes. Add some onion and mushrooms to the gravy to extend it even further.
Make a soup or stew. This is another way to extend a serving that isn’t quite big enough to go around
Mix it with beans and add Mexican seasoning to make burritos or to serve over rice.
When you make a large roast, thinly slice the meat for sandwiches and salads throughout the work and school week.
Cover leftover stew with pie crust or biscuit dough for a delicious potpie
Look for recipes specifically written to use up leftovers.
If you have more leftovers than you can use before they spoil, sometimes they can be canned – check out the instructions here for some examples.
You can find more ideas for repurposing leftovers HERE. This PDF guide has lots of recipes that use less meat and leftovers to make tasty meals.
Don’t waste anything
Use up the things that most people throw away. When preparing the meat, if you are cutting away some fat or bone, place it in a bowl and put it in the freezer. When you have enough like scraps of meat, it’s time to make broth from it. You can make hearty broth from ham, turkey, chicken, beef, or pork – virtually any kind of meat. Use the inedible parts and cook it down for hours to get a rich and delicious broth. You can then use this broth as a base for soup or to cook your rice in to add a hit of nutrition.
Here are directions on how to make and can poultry broth and ham broth. There are some great ideas for not letting any meat go to waste in this article.
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Do you have such a tiny amount of leftovers that it won’t equal a full serving? Start a container in your freezer for those leftovers and create “leftover soup”. Sometimes it’s fantastic, sometimes it isn’t so great, but those odds and ends can combine to make meals that I consider to be basically “freebies.” We always have a large Tupperware container in the freezer that contains little bits of vegetables or meat. Add a jar of homemade broth and a handful of rice, barley, or pasta, and you’ve created “leftover soup.” It will be different every single time, based on your family’s leftovers.
Raise your own.
If you live in a place where this is possible, it may be time to start raising your own meat. If you are in suburbia, rabbits could be your best option, since they’re quiet and unobtrusive. Even cities that allow you to have some laying hens tend to frown upon residents butchering those hens in the backyard.
If you live more rurally, the choice is yours: goats, chickens, turkeys, and pigs are all reasonable ways to get started raising your own meat. If you are worried about the slaughter, you may be able to work out a barter with someone who is skilled at butchering meat in exchange for some of the harvest.
Hunt and fish
This answer isn’t for everyone. Some folks prefer to forget that the meat on the styrofoam trays at the grocery store didn’t originate on those trays. Others have gotten locked into a more narrow definition of “meat”, believing that the options are fish, pork, beef, and chicken, and that nothing else exists. However, if you aren’t bothered by the concept of hunting, there is an abundance of meat walking, swimming, and flying around. Invest in a good game cookbook to best prepare meats that may not be familiar to you.
You don’t have to hunt, yourself. In the past, I had some friends and neighbors who hunt. In exchange for some of the bounty, I’ve bartered my skills at canning things like venison chili or moose meatballs in spaghetti sauce.
If you fish, that can put an instant meal on the table. Learning to quickly and efficiently clean fish is a great skill and can gently prepare you for butchering other types of meat.
Perhaps with the sharp uptick in meat prices and the rations, it’s time to brush up on these skills and learn to harvest what is naturally abundant in your area.
Use less meat in your recipes.
If you can’t get around the rations, then you’ll have to adjust to using less meat. Instead of making meat the star of the show, try using less of it in your meals.
Use it as a condiment. Throw in a small piece of ham or a couple of slices of bacon when making bean soup. Crumble crisp bacon on top of casseroles or potato dishes.
Mix meat with another protein source. This is less noticeable in meals with strong spices. In your chili, use more beans and only half a pound of beef.
If you eat soy products, try mixing soaked texturized vegetable protein half and a half with ground beef in recipes that call for it.
Cooked lentils can also be mixed with ground beef in stews, soups, and casseroles.
Stir-fries can make a little bit of meat go a long way while still providing a tasty, nutritious meal for your family.
While your meat and potatoes family members may not be delighted, there may not be an option for some families other than to reduce their meat consumption.
Any suggestions?
If you found this article useful, be sure to sign up for our newsletter. How do you get meat if you’re facing rations? What is the meat situation at your local stores? Do you think these shortages will continue long-term? Share your thoughts in the comments.
About Daisy
Daisy Luther writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company. You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Fed’s New QE Operations Could Be “Last Stop” Before a Deep Recession

Last September , the Fed ’ s emergency liquidity operation in the repo markets signaled serious distress in the economy .
The topic deserved the attention that we gave it at the time , but looking back on it now , those actions are dwarfed by those that the Fed has taken in recent months .
In March , in order to stave off market panic , Federal Reserve Chair Powell fired most of his economic “ bullets ” , including initiating a new round of Quantitative Easing .
As a result , the Fed ’ s balance sheet went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of inflation .
And , in just over a year , Powell has done a complete 180 on the topic of the national debt , now saying that he ’ s not worried about it at all .
But all of the Fed ’ s desperate attempts to add liquidity to the markets will eventually come up against their greatest obstacle : fundamentals .
James Altucher adds color to this point , saying : This sure sounds like the Fed ’ s recent return to Quantitative Easing could be delaying the inevitable : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ The uncomfortable reality is we need to give the market and the economy the necessary time to find the bottom.
” This “ bottom ” may arrive sooner than you think .
One trillion dollars is an incredible amount of money .
You can see what it looks like in the image below .
To provide some scale , the image includes a person , a semi-truck , an airplane and some buildings .
Yet to the federal government these days , $ 1 trillion is small beans .
According to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last six weeks the U.S. national debt skyrocketed to $ 25.06 trillion .
This is an increase of $ 1.5 trillion since March 23 , 2020 .
There aren ’ t many other ways to think about this except calling it what it seems to be : insanity .
On the chart below , Wolf Richter calls it “ debt out the wazoo ” : Wolf adds , “ Those trillions are whizzing by so fast it ’ s hard to even see them .
WOOSH… What was that ?
Oh , just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the chart are the periods when the debt bounced into the debt ceiling .
Yeah , those were the days !
” With national debt growing trillions at a time , it sure doesn ’ t seem as though fundamentals are playing a primary role in decisions that are being made .
Especially when you consider that , according to the same WolfStreet article , the Fed added $ 1.39 billion in treasuries to its own balance sheet .
This means that it effectively “ monetized ” about 90 % of the new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have to be paid , and fundamentals will eventually matter .
No one can say for sure when that will be or what that will look like , but it sure seems like it will be historic .
Prepare Yourself in Case the Economy “ Hits Bottom ” In the midst of all this madness in the markets , the Financial Times recently reported , “ Some of the world ’ s largest hedge funds are raising their bets on gold.
” In addition to other ways to diversify your savings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to consider following the hedge funds ’ lead .
Precious metals like gold and silver make for a good choice if the dollar goes sideways , inflation gets out of control , or reality sets in .

From Birch Gold Group
Last September, the Fed’s emergency liquidity operation in the repo markets signaled serious distress in the economy. The topic deserved the attention that we gave it at the time, but looking back on it now, those actions are dwarfed by those that the Fed has taken in recent months.
In March, in order to stave off market panic, Federal Reserve Chair Powell fired most of his economic “bullets”, including initiating a new round of Quantitative Easing.
As a result, the Fed’s balance sheet went vertical, potentially igniting a powder keg of inflation.
And, in just over a year, Powell has done a complete 180 on the topic of the national debt, now saying that he’s not worried about it at all.
But all of the Fed’s desperate attempts to add liquidity to the markets will eventually come up against their greatest obstacle: fundamentals.
James Altucher adds color to this point, saying:
While the Fed may be willing to step in and pump liquidity into a market that is in free fall, the Fed will NOT be able to prevent the coming recession.
While the talking heads would love for you to believe that the path forward will be smooth and painless and that we’re in for a V-shaped recovery, that’s extremely unlikely given the impact the coronavirus will continue to have on many sectors of the economy.
This sure sounds like the Fed’s recent return to Quantitative Easing could be delaying the inevitable: a potentially deep recession.
Altucher concludes, “The uncomfortable reality is we need to give the market and the economy the necessary time to find the bottom.”
This “bottom” may arrive sooner than you think.
U.S. Debt Spikes $1.5 Trillion in 6 Weeks (Fed Monetizes 90%)
One trillion dollars is an incredible amount of money. You can see what it looks like in the image below.
(Source)
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To provide some scale, the image includes a person, a semi-truck, an airplane and some buildings.
Yet to the federal government these days, $1 trillion is small beans.
According to an article on WolfStreet.com, over the last six weeks the U.S. national debt skyrocketed to $25.06 trillion.
This is an increase of $1.5 trillion since March 23, 2020.
There aren’t many other ways to think about this except calling it what it seems to be: insanity. On the chart below, Wolf Richter calls it “debt out the wazoo”:
Wolf adds, “Those trillions are whizzing by so fast it’s hard to even see them. WOOSH… What was that? Oh, just another trillion. The flat spots in the chart are the periods when the debt bounced into the debt ceiling. Yeah, those were the days!”
With national debt growing trillions at a time, it sure doesn’t seem as though fundamentals are playing a primary role in decisions that are being made.
Especially when you consider that, according to the same WolfStreet article, the Fed added $1.39 billion in treasuries to its own balance sheet. This means that it effectively “monetized” about 90% of the new debt.
Bottom line, the piper will have to be paid, and fundamentals will eventually matter. No one can say for sure when that will be or what that will look like, but it sure seems like it will be historic.
Prepare Yourself in Case the Economy “Hits Bottom”
In the midst of all this madness in the markets, the Financial Times recently reported, “Some of the world’s largest hedge funds are raising their bets on gold.”
In addition to other ways to diversify your savings, perhaps it’s time for you to consider following the hedge funds’ lead.
Precious metals like gold and silver make for a good choice if the dollar goes sideways, inflation gets out of control, or reality sets in.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Don’t Let Karen Kill Your Community

Don’t Let Karen Kill Your Community

But now , Karen is queen of enforcing mask-wearing .
Everyone must wear one at all times , even if @ @ @ @ @ people .
Karen takes to the Nextdoor message boards to complain about all the people @ @ @ @ @ Joggers are currently the main target , because engaging in a solitary exercise with a @ @ @ @ @ mouth should apparently be easy , but that could shift at any time .
‘ @ @ @ @ @ ?
’ , Karen asks .
Yes , it ’ s hard for people to @ @ @ @ @ ‘ masks are pointless ’ to ‘ masks are mandatory ’ in a few short @ @ @ @ @ the whole way .
Even now the World Health Organization suggests ‘ if you are @ @ @ @ @ to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.
’ @ @ @ @ @ that the term for this kind of busybody has a gendered name .
Men can @ @ @ @ @ , Karens .

via spectator
But now, Karen is queen of enforcing mask-wearing. Everyone must wear one at all times, even if they are not near other people. Karen takes to the Nextdoor message boards to complain about all the people she sees without one. Joggers are currently the main target, because engaging in a solitary exercise with a covering on your nose and mouth should apparently be easy, but that could shift at any time.
‘Why is this so hard?’, Karen asks. Yes, it’s hard for people to understand how we went from ‘masks are pointless’ to ‘masks are mandatory’ in a few short weeks with Karen lecturing us the whole way. Even now the World Health Organization suggests ‘if you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.’
It’s almost unfair that the term for this kind of busybody has a gendered name. Men can be, and often are, Karens.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) sets new record.

Not surprising anyone I think .

by ConfidenceFairy
Not surprising anyone I think.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--More than 70 test positive for coronavirus after attending “a large gathering”

MADISON , Wis. ( AP ) – More than 70 people who tested positive for the coronavirus since an April @ @ @ @ @ state Capitol indicated they had attended a large gathering , but the state Department of @ @ @ @ @ if they were at the rally because it is not tracking specific events .
Department @ @ @ @ @ that when someone tests positive for COVID-19 they are asked if they attended any large @ @ @ @ @ did not add the April 24 rally , which attracted about 1,500 people , to @ @ @ @ @ .
The department did add a question after the April 7 election to determine if @ @ @ @ @ polls .
As of Thursday , 67 people who were tested positive for COVID-19 had @ @ @ @ @ polls .
But because many of them had other exposures , health officials have not @ @ @ @ @ where they caught the virus .

MADISON, Wis. (AP) – More than 70 people who tested positive for the coronavirus since an April 24 rally at the Wisconsin state Capitol indicated they had attended a large gathering, but the state Department of Health Services cant’ say if they were at the rally because it is not tracking specific events.
Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Goodsitt said Friday that when someone tests positive for COVID-19 they are asked if they attended any large gatherings. But the department did not add the April 24 rally, which attracted about 1,500 people, to the list of specific questions.
The department did add a question after the April 7 election to determine if people had been at the polls. As of Thursday, 67 people who were tested positive for COVID-19 had also reported being at the polls. But because many of them had other exposures, health officials have not been able to conclusively determine where they caught the virus.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--The retail apocalypse continues: More than 2 million jobs disappeared in April, the latest in a seri

The retail apocalypse continues: More than 2 million jobs disappeared in April, the latest in a series of bad news for the industry

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics , 2.1 million jobs were lost in retail for the month of @ @ @ @ @ accessories retailers saw the heaviest losses , with jobs declining by 740,000 .
An additional @ @ @ @ @ in food services and drinking establishments .
Retailers from JCPenney and Macy ’ s to @ @ @ @ @ Secret announced in April they would be furloughing or laying off workers as they temporarily @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic .
Furloughed workers who are receiving benefits but not pay are classified as @ @ @ @ @ .

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2.1 million jobs were lost in retail for the month of April. Clothing and clothing accessories retailers saw the heaviest losses, with jobs declining by 740,000.
An additional 5.5 million jobs were shed in food services and drinking establishments.
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Retailers from JCPenney and Macy’s to Gap and Victoria’s Secret announced in April they would be furloughing or laying off workers as they temporarily closed stores in response to the pandemic. Furloughed workers who are receiving benefits but not pay are classified as unemployed in the jobs report.
www.businessinsider.com/bankruptcies-job-losses-bad-week-retail-industry-2020-5#the-coronavirus-bankruptcies-began-2


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Single mom has a meltdown over quarantine shutdown… Miami man loses it over grocery store mask polic

Single mom has a meltdown over quarantine shutdown… Miami man loses it over grocery store mask policy

Should all jobs be essential… .

Should all jobs be essential….
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--The FBl manufactured as crime against a 3 Star General. If you think you are safe, you are delusiona

The FBl manufactured as crime against a 3 Star General. If you think you are safe, you are delusional. Stand up now, or lose your freedom soon

CNN and MSNBC , globalist mouthpieces , refused to broadcast this .

by Playaguy
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CNN and MSNBC, globalist mouthpieces, refused to broadcast this.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Unemployment Is Really 35.7%

Unemployment Is Really 35.7%

HEADLINES : PANDEMIC-DEEPENED RECESSION HAS HAD ITS EMPLOYMENT COLLAPSE AND INITIAL GDP CONTRACTION – April 2020 U.3 Unemployment Rate Really @ @ @ @ @ of Labor Statistics , Where the Reported “ Headline ” 14.7 % U.3 .
Reflected @ @ @ @ @ Were Disclosed but Not Corrected , for a Second Month / Headline 14.7 % Was @ @ @ @ @ the History of Series ( Since 1948 ) / April 2020 Payroll Plunge of 20.5 @ @ @ @ @ Worst in the History of the Series ( Since 1939 )

by Jim Quinn
HEADLINES: PANDEMIC-DEEPENED RECESSION HAS HAD ITS EMPLOYMENT COLLAPSE AND INITIAL GDP CONTRACTION – April 2020 U.3 Unemployment Rate Really Was 19.5% per Bureau of Labor Statistics, Where the Reported “Headline” 14.7% U.3. Reflected Survey and Classification Errors That Were Disclosed but Not Corrected, for a Second Month /
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Headline 14.7% Was the Highest Unemployment Rate in the History of Series (Since 1948) /
April 2020 Payroll Plunge of 20.5 (-20.5) Million Was Worst in the History of the Series (Since 1939)


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

The fall out from this will take 24+ months to rear it ’ s ugly head fully .
By that I mean the wave of first commercial foreclosures , then residential .
Commercial was already hanging by a thread , with brick-and-mortar stores shuttering and the bankruptcy filings of JC Penney , Forever 21 , and J.Crew looming .
Macy ’ s isn ’ t doing much better , and KMart gasped it ’ s last .
Sears is going to go poof too .
This will leave huge “ anchor ” stores empty in malls that are already struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect of “ telecommuting ” through this crisis will emerge .
My son works for a company that provides “ help desk ” services for companies .
He has not stopped working through this but of course is now 100 % work from home .
Guess what ?
He is planning a move to TX next year and his employer said “ keep your job when you go , why not ?
” Thousands of companies now realize all that expensive office space is a waste of money .
Meaning they WILL NOT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said they are slashing their office space use significantly .
This will in turn spark defaults in the office space sector .
These buildings rely on janitorial and maintenance staff .
These people will be laid off never to return .
Any secondary businesses in them , like small restaurants , nail salons , hairdressers , will see their foot traffic business dry up and they will leave too .
Commercial lending has been propped up for a long time on low interest rates and crazy loose terms .
Borrowers have just been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many on interest only notes .
Then we move to the residential foreclosures .
When people do go back to work ( if they do ) , they will now be , most likely , 4-6 months on payments of their mortgage .
Their lender gives them a forbearance and tacks it on the end .
Ok .
But what about the water , sewer , and taxes ?
Insurance ?
If you don ’ t keep up on your homeowner ’ s and the bank finds out , they can and will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And condos…are people keeping up on their HOA fees ?
HOA ’ s are in first position and can foreclose for back fees .
This is extremely problematic for associations that are small and depend on the steady flow of monthly fees to pay THEIR master insurance and maintenance .
Larger complexes typically have a reserve , but this will go bye-bye fairly quickly .
If some of these units are rentals and the tenants are not paying rent , it is unlikely the owner will pay HOA .
Good luck evicting the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some complexes the tenant ratio is very high , 50 % or MORE .
Then we have the multi family sector , which has been also massively overpriced and propped up by historically sky-high rents , that people are not paying .
Please understand that tenants in these places tend to be service industry workers .
Hotels , bars , restaurants .
The places that are closed , many are gone forever .
And when we do open , it will be with restricted customers anyway , further limiting tips for these employees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and ride that out to the end because it ’ s more money .
And not pay their rent out of either , sometimes even if they can .
Lenders just recently tightened up their lending criteria .
Credit scores must now be 700 minimum for FHA ( previously 650 ) , with higher deposits required .
It is a good bet that credit scores have already tanked because people are not paying their credit card bills or car payments .
So a huge sector of the market will be gone in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 72 month loans with no money down .
And so used car prices will jump significantly , meaning most people will have to buy cheap clunkers that they cycle out of every 1-2 years rather than fix .
What people don ’ t realize is we are just overpriced for everything in this country .
Housing , rents , cars , food .
The downward pressure of things to cost less will eventually happen , it ’ s just going to meet resistance and take longer .
It is a fact of life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go down .
If we bring back manufacturing , it can never be like it was in the 70-80 ’ s .
Plush union jobs with high wages and fat benefit packages .
It ’ s going to be a decent , living wage , with probably some kind of employee retirement participation plan and medical , and that ’ s it .
People will choose to take non-union jobs that actually PAY over zero work but marching in a picket line .
The cost of these goods will go down due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them here over time .
Making 15 bucks an hour to work in fast food will be considered a joke , as now these companies see robot order takers and less in-dining demand will mean smaller store footprints , meaning less humans to clean the tables , mop the floors , and take out the trash .
I seriously would not be surprised to see McDonalds no bigger than a kiosk where your food is just passed out a sliding drawer at the drive through .
Movie theaters are already on the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rise , and the virus lockdowns has seen “ first run ” features being offered at home for $ 19 bucks for the whole family .
That ’ s a bargain in comparison to 15 or more a person .
This will start happening more and more , with promotion being more event oriented rather than opening-night oriented .
The days of the mega-plex are over .
I think they will pivot to a smaller , more luxury themed type of theater with food and alcohol package plan type experience .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this ?
People are already getting outside more , which will hopefully lead to more actual activities with friends and family .
All of this bullshittery and assholery manipulation will mean people will realize that online platforms can be used for a lot of evil .
And govern themselves accordingly .
Change will happen , it will just take time .

Guest Post by Realestatepup
The fall out from this will take 24+ months to rear it’s ugly head fully. By that I mean the wave of first commercial foreclosures, then residential.
Commercial was already hanging by a thread, with brick-and-mortar stores shuttering and the bankruptcy filings of JC Penney, Forever 21, and J.Crew looming. Macy’s isn’t doing much better, and KMart gasped it’s last. Sears is going to go poof too.
This will leave huge “anchor” stores empty in malls that are already struggling to fill spaces.
Then the secondary effect of “telecommuting” through this crisis will emerge. My son works for a company that provides “help desk” services for companies. He has not stopped working through this but of course is now 100% work from home. Guess what? He is planning a move to TX next year and his employer said “keep your job when you go, why not?”
Thousands of companies now realize all that expensive office space is a waste of money. Meaning they WILL NOT BE GOING BACK. Disney has already said they are slashing their office space use significantly.
This will in turn spark defaults in the office space sector. These buildings rely on janitorial and maintenance staff. These people will be laid off never to return. Any secondary businesses in them, like small restaurants, nail salons, hairdressers, will see their foot traffic business dry up and they will leave too.
Commercial lending has been propped up for a long time on low interest rates and crazy loose terms. Borrowers have just been recycling their debt every 2 years, many on interest only notes.
Then we move to the residential foreclosures. When people do go back to work (if they do), they will now be, most likely, 4-6 months on payments of their mortgage. Their lender gives them a forbearance and tacks it on the end. Ok. But what about the water, sewer, and taxes? Insurance? If you don’t keep up on your homeowner’s and the bank finds out, they can and will foreclose on you in most cases.
And condos…are people keeping up on their HOA fees? HOA’s are in first position and can foreclose for back fees. This is extremely problematic for associations that are small and depend on the steady flow of monthly fees to pay THEIR master insurance and maintenance. Larger complexes typically have a reserve, but this will go bye-bye fairly quickly. If some of these units are rentals and the tenants are not paying rent, it is unlikely the owner will pay HOA. Good luck evicting the tenants through all of this. In some complexes the tenant ratio is very high, 50% or MORE.
Then we have the multi family sector, which has been also massively overpriced and propped up by historically sky-high rents, that people are not paying. Please understand that tenants in these places tend to be service industry workers. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The places that are closed, many are gone forever. And when we do open, it will be with restricted customers anyway, further limiting tips for these employees. Many will just stay on unemployment and ride that out to the end because it’s more money. And not pay their rent out of either, sometimes even if they can.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Lenders just recently tightened up their lending criteria. Credit scores must now be 700 minimum for FHA (previously 650), with higher deposits required.
It is a good bet that credit scores have already tanked because people are not paying their credit card bills or car payments. So a huge sector of the market will be gone in a instant.
Cars. Ah yes…good bye 72 month loans with no money down. And so used car prices will jump significantly, meaning most people will have to buy cheap clunkers that they cycle out of every 1-2 years rather than fix.
What people don’t realize is we are just overpriced for everything in this country. Housing, rents, cars, food. The downward pressure of things to cost less will eventually happen, it’s just going to meet resistance and take longer.
It is a fact of life that when demand goes down, prices go down.
If we bring back manufacturing, it can never be like it was in the 70-80’s. Plush union jobs with high wages and fat benefit packages. It’s going to be a decent, living wage, with probably some kind of employee retirement participation plan and medical, and that’s it. People will choose to take non-union jobs that actually PAY over zero work but marching in a picket line. The cost of these goods will go down due to less demand and less cost to make them here over time.
Making 15 bucks an hour to work in fast food will be considered a joke, as now these companies see robot order takers and less in-dining demand will mean smaller store footprints, meaning less humans to clean the tables, mop the floors, and take out the trash. I seriously would not be surprised to see McDonalds no bigger than a kiosk where your food is just passed out a sliding drawer at the drive through.
Movie theaters are already on the way out too. Home viewing choices continue to rise, and the virus lockdowns has seen “first run” features being offered at home for $19 bucks for the whole family. That’s a bargain in comparison to 15 or more a person. This will start happening more and more, with promotion being more event oriented rather than opening-night oriented. The days of the mega-plex are over. I think they will pivot to a smaller, more luxury themed type of theater with food and alcohol package plan type experience.
The very good thing that may come out of this? People are already getting outside more, which will hopefully lead to more actual activities with friends and family.
All of this bullshittery and assholery manipulation will mean people will realize that online platforms can be used for a lot of evil. And govern themselves accordingly. Change will happen, it will just take time.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Shadow Government… There’s more to come, especially relating to Biden!

0 ’ s administration spied , lied and now it ’ s been declassified .
Get ready for the BOOM @ @ @ @ @ made and the whirlwind is about to reap .

by Liberal_cesspool
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
0’s administration spied, lied and now it’s been declassified. Get ready for the BOOM because the implications have been made and the whirlwind is about to reap.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--UCNBT: “U CAN NEVER BEAT TRUMP”

UCNBT: “U CAN NEVER BEAT TRUMP”

Dear President Trump , here ’ s an important message from your supporters .
First it was “ Stormy Daniels.
” Then , “ Russian Collusion.
” Followed by “ the Ukrainian Hoax.
” Now , it ’ s “ Coronavirus pandemic ” and the resulting economic catastophe .
But who is “ THEY ?
” “ THEY ” can ’ t possibly be Pelosi , Schumer , Schiff , Nadler , Maxine Waters , AOC , et al .
Their IQ totaled together and multiplied by 1000 isn ’ t enough brainpower to take you down , Mr. President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a very wealthy , very cunning , globalist , elitist cabal- led by George Soros .
Talk about Deep State .
Thank God it ’ s you , as President of the United States , or “ THEY ” would have already won .
There are those who think this pandemic was a planned attack .
It wasn ’ t .
It ’ s not a hoax .
It ’ s very real- as I ’ ve said from day one .
But while Coronavirus is a very real pandemic , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of opportunity.
” Likely an off-shoot of the socialist/communist Cloward- Piven plan I learned from my America-hating classmates at Columbia University three decades ago .
The goal of Cloward-Piven was to overwhelm the US economic system ; bury the economy under a mountain of debt ; take down capitalism ; bankrupt every business owner in America ; and turn America into a socialist basket case like Cuba .
Sound familiar ?
It ’ s all happening right now .
I believe Soros and his socialist , globalist , elitist , America-hating cabal saw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to bring Cloward-Piven back to life .
To update it for the age of the “ Green New Deal.
” It started with President Trump being told by so-called experts , “ Mr .
President , you must take action , or millions of Americans will die .
And you ’ ll be blamed .
The media will call you a mass murderer .
You must shutdown the economy today to save millions of American lives.
” I ’ m sure this message was carefully orchestrated and of course , backed by so-called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK Scientist whose computer models projected 2.2 million Americans would die .
And they were right- because Democrats and the liberal media were drooling to blame you for every death , if you left the economy open .
Soros and his globalist elitist cabal out to destroy America and you ( the one man standing in the way of their plans ) , set you up to fail .
They assumed you wouldn ’ t listen .
But , just as you did by releasing the Ukrainian phone transcript , they never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You did what had to be done to save millions of American lives .
You shocked them by closing the US economy .
Now they thought they had you in a trap .
“ Trump would have been called a murderer if he left the economy open .
But he ’ s a surefire re-election loser if he closes the economy .
He ’ ll be blamed for killing millions of jobs and starting a Great Depression .
We got him either way.
” Mr. President , we know politically you had no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the so-called “ experts.
” You did what you had to do , to avoid being called an evil mass murderer .
You acted in compassion to save millions of American lives .
So , while we hate the decision , we still love you .
If you hadn ’ t taken the actions you did , you would have been crucified by the media .
All the experts , scientists and doctors who advised you , would then come forward to bury you .
Because you didn ’ t listen to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bravo .
You did the right thing , the only thing .
But now you need to win round two- and this is the only round that counts for America , American exceptionalism , small business and the great American middle class .
You ’ re not playing for your political life now .
You ’ re playing for ours .
We are the 63 million Americans who voted for you- the exact demographic that paid the price when you closed the US economy .
We are the small business owners , taxpayers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs , pay all the bills , pay all the taxes .
We are the heroes of the business world .
We are “ the First Responders of business ” who risk our life savings and are willing now to risk our lives to keep the economy afloat .
We have to go back to work , before our businesses or jobs are gone forever .
We need you to save us .
That said , it is time to “ OPEN UP THE US ECONOMY.
” No more ifs , ands , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and unequivocal where you stand .
Encourage the Republican governors you trust to carry the ball .
Open the national parks , beaches and government buildings .
Let the American people know that you trust them to use good judgement .
Support schools and colleges re-opening this fall .
Be sure college football and the NFL are open for business this fall too .
Do it now , do it strongly .
Don ’ t worry about Democrats .
They hate you .
They hate capitalism .
They hate business owners .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SYNDROME.
” They hate work .
They enjoy lying around at home , stuffing bonbons in their mouths , watching Dr. Phil and Netflix movies , waiting for government checks to arrive .
They have learned to love this lifestyle .
Some of them make more being unemployed than when they were working .
They think “ lockdown ” is a lifestyle .
They don ’ t ever want to go back to work .
Re-opening the economy would threaten their lives of leisure .
None of them are voting for you- even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for life .
It doesn ’ t matter what you do , or when you do it…the haters will still hate .
But , the faster you move , those of us who love you , and support you through thick and thin , will love and support you , even more .
So , “ OPEN UP THE U.S. ECONOMY NOW.
” But please keep in mind , there are some things we won ’ t support : 1 .
Stop the spending .
Only help those truly in need : small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( seniors , nursing home residents and those with compromised immune systems ) .
We are outraged thinking about 20+ million government employees getting $ 1200 stimulus checks .
Why ?
They didn ’ t miss a paycheck .
Or the 100 million Americans who get welfare checks of some kind .
Their checks kept coming .
Why ’ d they need a stimulus check ?
P.S .
Why is Congress still getting paid ?
Why are any politicians getting paid ?
The people who demanded we stop working and starve our families @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 .
We ’ d better not see a single dollar go to bail out craphole states like New York , New Jersey , Connecticut , California , or Illinois .
Those deep blue states dug their own hole long ago , with massive welfare spending , illegal alien spending and obscene pensions for government employees .
They were sinking ships long before Coronavirus .
Don ’ t give them a dime of our taxpayer money .
Tell them to cut spending , taxes , regulations and end Sanctuary cities- maybe then their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Please don ’ t sign off on any legislation that allows the Democrats to cheat even more in elections , like “ vote by mail , ” or ballot harvesting .
If any of these pass , the GOP will never win another national election .
Which means it ’ s the end of America .
But you know that , right ?
4 .
Finally , be very careful .
The so-called “ experts ” are now saying “ Don ’ t re-open the economy , or the infections and deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fall for it…they ’ ve been wrong about everything else .
Heck , the famous UK scientist Neil Ferguson who demanded lockdowns , masks , social distancing , and closing the economy , was just forced to resign because he left his home to have sex with his married girlfriend .
Why would anyone listen to these people ?
The bottom line , Mr President is to re-open the economy .
Now .
Today .
Torpedoes full speed ahead .
We realize the importance of your re-election and that you had little choice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our health , the job of government is to protect our rights .
Never again will we stand for those rights being trampled .
Never again will we allow government to decide what is “ essential.
” The only thing “ non-essential ” is all the blowhard politicians and government bureaucrats .
Never again will we be told we can ’ t assemble for church , or to protest .
Never again will we be told we can ’ t walk on the beach , or jog in a park .
Never again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our homes , waiting for an illness to strike , or not .
We are America .
We are exceptional .
We don ’ t hide from danger , we attack it .
We are a nation of risk-takers and First Responders .
We don ’ t “ run , hide , shelter.
” We don ’ t willingly give up our jobs , or careers , or rights .
We fight back .
We don ’ t accept a choice of poverty or life .
In America , we find a way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy , opportunity , mobility and prosperity alive .
NEVER AGAIN will we make this mistake .
Now let ’ s go re-open America .
Let ’ s show the world how it ’ s done .
Let ’ s prove once again how exceptional we are .
Let ’ s go kick some ass .
And let ’ s prove once again UCNBT : “ U CAN NEVER BEAT TRUMP.
” Wayne Allyn Root is a CEO , entrepreneur , best-selling author , nationally-syndicated talk show host on USA Radio Network @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PM to 6 PM PST .
To find out more about Wayne Allyn Root and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists , visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com .

by Wayne Allyn Root
Dear President Trump, here’s an important message from your supporters.
First it was “Stormy Daniels.” Then, “Russian Collusion.” Followed by “the Ukrainian Hoax.” Now, it’s “Coronavirus pandemic” and the resulting economic catastophe.
“THEY” never give up.
But who is “THEY?” “THEY” can’t possibly be Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, Nadler, Maxine Waters, AOC, et al. Their IQ totaled together and multiplied by 1000 isn’t enough brainpower to take you down, Mr. President.
In my opinion “THEY” is a very wealthy, very cunning, globalist, elitist cabal- led by George Soros. Talk about Deep State. Thank God it’s you, as President of the United States, or “THEY” would have already won.
There are those who think this pandemic was a planned attack. It wasn’t. It’s not a hoax. It’s very real- as I’ve said from day one.
But while Coronavirus is a very real pandemic, it was quickly turned into a “target of opportunity.” Likely an off-shoot of the socialist/communist Cloward- Piven plan I learned from my America-hating classmates at Columbia University three decades ago.
The goal of Cloward-Piven was to overwhelm the US economic system; bury the economy under a mountain of debt; take down capitalism; bankrupt every business owner in America; and turn America into a socialist basket case like Cuba.
Sound familiar? It’s all happening right now.
I believe Soros and his socialist, globalist, elitist, America-hating cabal saw the Coronavirus pandemic as the perfect way to bring Cloward-Piven back to life. To update it for the age of the “Green New Deal.”
It started with President Trump being told by so-called experts, “Mr. President, you must take action, or millions of Americans will die. And you’ll be blamed. The media will call you a mass murderer. You must shutdown the economy today to save millions of American lives.”
I’m sure this message was carefully orchestrated and of course, backed by so-called “experts” like Neil Ferguson, the UK Scientist whose computer models projected 2.2 million Americans would die.
And they were right- because Democrats and the liberal media were drooling to blame you for every death, if you left the economy open.
Soros and his globalist elitist cabal out to destroy America and you (the one man standing in the way of their plans), set you up to fail. They assumed you wouldn’t listen.
But, just as you did by releasing the Ukrainian phone transcript, they never expected you to act so decisively. You did what had to be done to save millions of American lives. You shocked them by closing the US economy.
Now they thought they had you in a trap. “Trump would have been called a murderer if he left the economy open. But he’s a surefire re-election loser if he closes the economy. He’ll be blamed for killing millions of jobs and starting a Great Depression. We got him either way.”
Mr. President, we know politically you had no choice. You had to listen to the so-called “experts.” You did what you had to do, to avoid being called an evil mass murderer. You acted in compassion to save millions of American lives.
So, while we hate the decision, we still love you. If you hadn’t taken the actions you did, you would have been crucified by the media. All the experts, scientists and doctors who advised you, would then come forward to bury you. Because you didn’t listen to their advice.
You won that round. Bravo. You did the right thing, the only thing.
But now you need to win round two- and this is the only round that counts for America, American exceptionalism, small business and the great American middle class. You’re not playing for your political life now. You’re playing for ours.
We are the 63 million Americans who voted for you- the exact demographic that paid the price when you closed the US economy. We are the small business owners, taxpayers, and workers who create all the jobs, pay all the bills, pay all the taxes. We are the heroes of the business world. We are “the First Responders of business” who risk our life savings and are willing now to risk our lives to keep the economy afloat. We have to go back to work, before our businesses or jobs are gone forever.
We need you to save us.
That said, it is time to “OPEN UP THE US ECONOMY.” No more ifs, ands, buts or maybes. Make it clear and unequivocal where you stand. Encourage the Republican governors you trust to carry the ball. Open the national parks, beaches and government buildings. Let the American people know that you trust them to use good judgement. Support schools and colleges re-opening this fall. Be sure college football and the NFL are open for business this fall too. Do it now, do it strongly.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Don’t worry about Democrats. They hate you. They hate capitalism. They hate business owners.
Many of them clearly suffer from “STOCKHOLM SYNDROME.” They hate work. They enjoy lying around at home, stuffing bonbons in their mouths, watching Dr. Phil and Netflix movies, waiting for government checks to arrive. They have learned to love this lifestyle.
Some of them make more being unemployed than when they were working. They think “lockdown” is a lifestyle. They don’t ever want to go back to work. Re-opening the economy would threaten their lives of leisure.
None of them are voting for you- even if you keep the economy locked down for life. It doesn’t matter what you do, or when you do it…the haters will still hate.
But, the faster you move, those of us who love you, and support you through thick and thin, will love and support you, even more.
So, “OPEN UP THE U.S. ECONOMY NOW.”
But please keep in mind, there are some things we won’t support:
1. Stop the spending. Only help those truly in need: small businesses, and those at-risk from Coronavirus (seniors, nursing home residents and those with compromised immune systems). We are outraged thinking about 20+ million government employees getting $1200 stimulus checks. Why? They didn’t miss a paycheck.
Or the 100 million Americans who get welfare checks of some kind. Their checks kept coming. Why’d they need a stimulus check?
P.S. Why is Congress still getting paid? Why are any politicians getting paid? The people who demanded we stop working and starve our families, never missed one paycheck themselves.
2. We’d better not see a single dollar go to bail out craphole states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, or Illinois. Those deep blue states dug their own hole long ago, with massive welfare spending, illegal alien spending and obscene pensions for government employees. They were sinking ships long before Coronavirus. Don’t give them a dime of our taxpayer money. Tell them to cut spending, taxes, regulations and end Sanctuary cities- maybe then their residents won’t flee.
3. Please don’t sign off on any legislation that allows the Democrats to cheat even more in elections, like “vote by mail,” or ballot harvesting. If any of these pass, the GOP will never win another national election. Which means it’s the end of America. But you know that, right?
4. Finally, be very careful. The so-called “experts” are now saying “Don’t re-open the economy, or the infections and deaths will rise again.” Don’t fall for it…they’ve been wrong about everything else.
Heck, the famous UK scientist Neil Ferguson who demanded lockdowns, masks, social distancing, and closing the economy, was just forced to resign because he left his home to have sex with his married girlfriend. Why would anyone listen to these people?
The bottom line, Mr President is to re-open the economy. Now. Today. Torpedoes full speed ahead.
We realize the importance of your re-election and that you had little choice. But, more important than protecting our health, the job of government is to protect our rights. Never again will we stand for those rights being trampled.
Never again will we allow government to decide what is “essential.” The only thing “non-essential” is all the blowhard politicians and government bureaucrats.
Never again will we be told we can’t assemble for church, or to protest. Never again will we be told we can’t walk on the beach, or jog in a park. Never again will we agree to hide away in our homes, waiting for an illness to strike, or not.
We are America. We are exceptional. We don’t hide from danger, we attack it. We are a nation of risk-takers and First Responders. We don’t “run, hide, shelter.” We don’t willingly give up our jobs, or careers, or rights. We fight back.
We don’t accept a choice of poverty or life. In America, we find a way to protect the weak and still keep the economy, opportunity, mobility and prosperity alive. NEVER AGAIN will we make this mistake.
Now let’s go re-open America. Let’s show the world how it’s done. Let’s prove once again how exceptional we are. Let’s go kick some ass.
And let’s prove once again UCNBT: “U CAN NEVER BEAT TRUMP.”
Wayne Allyn Root is a CEO, entrepreneur, best-selling author, nationally-syndicated talk show host on USA Radio Network at 6 PM to 9 PM EST/3 PM to 6 PM PST. To find out more about Wayne Allyn Root and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-09--Why This Oil Rally Won’t Last

Why This Oil Rally Won’t Last

Oil prices have rallied as traders believe the depths of demand destruction may be coming to an end with economies beginning to reopen .
But some analysts are warning that the oil price rally may be premature .
WTI prices have doubled from $ 12 to $ 24 in a little over a week .
There is evidence that demand has bottomed out and has begun to rise from recent lows .
U.S. gasoline demand has ticked up for two consecutive weeks , rising from 5.31 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) in mid-April to 6.66 mb/d on May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shut ins plus the OPEC+ deal have taken enormous volumes off of the market .
U.S. oil production has declined by 1.1 mb/d since the end of March , dipping below 12 mb/d at the start of May .
“ While it was still at rock bottom only two weeks ago , with everyone talking about the negative WTI prices and overflowing stocks , the optimism can now be sensed everywhere , ” Commerzbank wrote in a note on Wednesday .
The rise in oil prices mirrors the rally in broader financial markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up nearly 30 percent since mid-March .
The Federal Reserve has funneled trillions of dollars into stocks and bonds .
But alongside financial market exuberance , nearly 33 million people have filed for unemployment .
Small businesses everywhere are getting decimated .
There is a growing chasm between financial markets and the real economy , a gap that is unsustainable.Related : Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices As Demand Recovers There is something similar playing out in the oil and gas sector .
Energy stocks have made huge gains since March , even as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as mentioned , oil prices have rallied , despite storage levels continuing to fill up .
Sub- $ 30 WTI is terrible for the oil industry no matter how you slice it , but the sharp price increases from just two weeks ago are hard to ignore .
“ We believe that the current euphoria on the oil market is premature , ” Commerzbank warned .
Pointing to the December WTI contract rallying to $ 33 per barrel on Tuesday , the investment bank said there is limited upside from here .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as it is , may also be overdone .
Nymex natural gas prices traded below $ 2/MMBtu for much of 2020 so far , but rose by more than 30 percent since mid-April to a recent high of $ 2.13/MMBtu on May 5 .
The reasons for the rally have a lot to do with shut ins in the Permian , and expected curtailments of associated gas production , plus an explosion of the Tetco gas pipeline .
“ While we do believe that an increase in production declines expectations in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1.65/mmBtu the front of the curve showed three weeks ago , we believe summer 2020 NYMEX gas prices have overshot , ” Goldman Sachs said in a note.Related : Why Oil Is Critical To U.S .
Survival But the rally for crude is more glaring .
“ The question is not if prices would stop rising , but when , ” Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaugen , said in a statement .
“ [ I ] t is too early for such a recovery , ” Tonhaugen said .
He noted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glut , but that there is still an imbalance .
More supply curtailments will be necessary .
“ Oil prices will very likely fall further as we move through May until more shut-ins complete the puzzle , ” Tonhaugen concluded .
There will be multiple lasting scars from the current crisis that will take years to resolve .
“ [ O ] ver the previous four months inventories would have built by over 1,300mb , some non-OPEC supply will be shut-in and the OPEC+ group will have over 8mb/d of spare capacity , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ These overhangs are likely to keep prices highly depressed.
” More importantly , the global pandemic won ’ t be over and the global economy will struggle to recover .
The danger of a second wave of infections and economy-wide shutdowns is real .
“ Even following a gradual resumption of economic activity , demand may remain below the 2019 level for years to come , ” Commerzbank said .

By Nick Cunningham
Oil prices have rallied as traders believe the depths of demand destruction may be coming to an end with economies beginning to reopen. But some analysts are warning that the oil price rally may be premature.
WTI prices have doubled from $12 to $24 in a little over a week. There is evidence that demand has bottomed out and has begun to rise from recent lows. U.S. gasoline demand has ticked up for two consecutive weeks, rising from 5.31 million barrels per day (mb/d) in mid-April to 6.66 mb/d on May 1.
On the supply side, shut ins plus the OPEC+ deal have taken enormous volumes off of the market. U.S. oil production has declined by 1.1 mb/d since the end of March, dipping below 12 mb/d at the start of May.
“While it was still at rock bottom only two weeks ago, with everyone talking about the negative WTI prices and overflowing stocks, the optimism can now be sensed everywhere,” Commerzbank wrote in a note on Wednesday.
The rise in oil prices mirrors the rally in broader financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 30 percent since mid-March. The Federal Reserve has funneled trillions of dollars into stocks and bonds.
But alongside financial market exuberance, nearly 33 million people have filed for unemployment. Small businesses everywhere are getting decimated. There is a growing chasm between financial markets and the real economy, a gap that is unsustainable.Related: Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices As Demand Recovers
There is something similar playing out in the oil and gas sector. Energy stocks have made huge gains since March, even as the market remains horribly depressed. And, as mentioned, oil prices have rallied, despite storage levels continuing to fill up. Sub-$30 WTI is terrible for the oil industry no matter how you slice it, but the sharp price increases from just two weeks ago are hard to ignore.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“We believe that the current euphoria on the oil market is premature,” Commerzbank warned. Pointing to the December WTI contract rallying to $33 per barrel on Tuesday, the investment bank said there is limited upside from here.
The exuberance in natural gas markets, such as it is, may also be overdone. Nymex natural gas prices traded below $2/MMBtu for much of 2020 so far, but rose by more than 30 percent since mid-April to a recent high of $2.13/MMBtu on May 5. The reasons for the rally have a lot to do with shut ins in the Permian, and expected curtailments of associated gas production, plus an explosion of the Tetco gas pipeline.
“While we do believe that an increase in production declines expectations in this period justifies higher gas prices than the$1.65/mmBtu the front of the curve showed three weeks ago, we believe summer 2020 NYMEX gas prices have overshot,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.Related: Why Oil Is Critical To U.S. Survival
But the rally for crude is more glaring. “The question is not if prices would stop rising, but when,” Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaugen, said in a statement. “[I]t is too early for such a recovery,” Tonhaugen said. He noted that shut ins have helped ease the glut, but that there is still an imbalance. More supply curtailments will be necessary. “Oil prices will very likely fall further as we move through May until more shut-ins complete the puzzle,” Tonhaugen concluded.
There will be multiple lasting scars from the current crisis that will take years to resolve. “[O]ver the previous four months inventories would have built by over 1,300mb, some non-OPEC supply will be shut-in and the OPEC+ group will have over 8mb/d of spare capacity,” Standard Chartered wrote in a report. “These overhangs are likely to keep prices highly depressed.”
More importantly, the global pandemic won’t be over and the global economy will struggle to recover. The danger of a second wave of infections and economy-wide shutdowns is real. “Even following a gradual resumption of economic activity, demand may remain below the 2019 level for years to come,” Commerzbank said.
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com