investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--WARNING: Is SwipeBlue even legal?

WARNING: Is SwipeBlue even legal?

I got this email addressed to my daughter , we have never shared an email address so I have no idea why I got this Neither one of us are registered to a party so I ’ m not sure how we were singled out by this unless it ’ s from someone ’ s contact list ?
So they are removing Trump voters from their list , or are they going to destroy ballots , this is all for mail in ballots according to their website Here is their website : Here is the email : In Michigan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump – but it ’ s way too close for comfort because Michigan could decide our next President .
And in the Senate race , a new poll shows Gary Peters ’ lead down to only 1 % .
We need Gary Peters for a Democratic majority to end Mitch McConnell ’ s reign of destruction and lies .
So we need to deliver every possible Michigan voter for Joe Biden and Gary Peters !
That ’ s why we created a powerful new phone app called SwipeBlue – to use all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden , Kamala Harris , and good Democrats all the way down the ballot .
1 .
Go to your app store ( Apple or Google ) and install SwipeBlue .
2 .
With your permission , we ’ ll match your contacts to the public voter file and show you which friends are registered as Democrats , Republicans , third party , or independents .
( Don ’ t worry – we fully respect your privacy and theirs . )
3 .
You guess whether each contact will vote for Joe Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Biden , RED for Trump , or GREEN if they are undecided .
After you swipe , we will do the rest : BLUE ( Biden ) swipes : we ’ ll send them 2 texts with a helpful link to vote safely by mail .
GREEN ( undecided ) swipes : our skilled volunteers will try to persuade them to vote for Joe Biden .
RED ( Trump ) swipes : we will remove them from our contact lists .
The secret power of SwipeBlue is that you can probably guess @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
So your BLUE , RED , and GREEN swipes will tell us exactly who to contact ( or not ) to make sure Joe Biden wins .
And to prevent Trump from stealing the election , we must make sure Joe Biden wins by a landslide – so every swipe counts !
SwipeBlue is the most powerful tool for beating Trump .
Will you install SwipeBlue today ?
Thanks for all you do .
p.s .
we are adding features daily so if you find any bugs please email support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and community site for progressive activists , with over 5 million supporters .
We stand for jobs , justice , healthcare , education , the environment , and peace .
We ’ re supported by great progressive partners so we never ask for donations .
Please join us at Democrats.com !
You are subscriber # 40548971 to Democrats.com Activist Alerts .
Click here if you do not want future newsletters from SwipeBlue .
If you do not want to receive messages from our partners , click here .
Click here to permanently unsubscribe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a free tool for iOS and Android .
SwipeBlue is crucial tool to help ensure your Blue friends actually vote and send Trump packing .
Without the ability to go door to door , digital canvassing via text message is the next best thing .
By swiping Blue , you help us confirm who the true Biden voters are so we can help get them to the polls .
We use publicly available data to show you which of your contacts are registered to vote .
All you need to do is swipe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your contact will vote for Joe Biden , swipe red ( right ) if they will vote for Donald Trump , or tap and press green if they are undecided .
When you swipe blue , SwipeBlue will check their name against public contact lists , and then text that person a link to verify their registration and pledge to vote safely by mail for Joe Biden .
Red voters will be taken off our contact list .
What happens after I swipe ?
Every time you swipe blue , SwipeBlue will text @ @ @ @ @ @ @ registration and pledge to vote safely by mail for Joe Biden .
You do not have to contact them yourself , unless of course you want to !
We will protect your privacy by anonymizing all swipes so they do not refer to you .
Tap and swipe green for swing voters , and we ’ ll reach out to them with a 1:1 conversation about why they should vote for Biden in 2020 .
If you like SwipeBlue , we hope you ’ ll ask your Democratic friends to join us .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ info legally without their permission ?
?
?
In order to provide the Services , including facilitating your texts or calls to Your Contacts and providing other features of our Services , our systems may need to access , store and process Your Contacts .
When you click “ Sync Your Contacts ” in the App , you give us permission to do those things , and this permission extends to our affiliates and trusted third parties we work with .
Your Use of TargetSmart Data and Voter File Data Your use of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use of certain voter information that we license from TargetSmart , including certain voter file data .
Such use is subject to , and you agree to fully abide by , the requirements and restrictions set forth in the Data Usage Agreement , a copy of which are provided at the end of these Terms .
If you use any voter file data , you acknowledge and agree that you must certify and affirm knowledge of , and compliance with , all laws and regulations that govern the acquisition and use of voter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal , state and local laws and regulations governing acceptable use of the voter file data .
So long as you comply with these Terms , we give you a limited , nonexclusive , nontransferable , revocable license to use the SwipeBlue App ( the “ App ” ) , solely to access the Services and to use the Services solely for your informational , noncommercial , and personal use .
To the extent any component of the Services may be offered under an open source license , we ’ ll make that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that license may expressly override some of these Terms .
Unless the following restrictions are prohibited by law , you agree not to reverse engineer or decompile the Services , attempt to do so , or assist anyone in doing so .
In addition , such license does not include : ( a ) any resale or commercial use of the Services or any materials contained therein ; ( b ) modifying or otherwise making any derivative uses of the Services or any portion thereof ; ( c ) use of any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gathering or extraction methods ; or ( d ) any use of the Services other than for their intended purpose .
Any use of the Services other than as specifically authorized herein , without the prior written permission is strictly prohibited and will terminate the license granted herein .
Such unauthorized use may also violate applicable laws including without limitation copyright laws and applicable communications regulations and statutes .
This license is revocable at any time

I got this email addressed to my daughter, we have never shared an email address so I have no idea why I got this
Neither one of us are registered to a party so I’m not sure how we were singled out by this unless it’s from someone’s contact list?
So they are removing Trump voters from their list,or are they going to destroy ballots, this is all for mail in ballots according to their website
Here is their website:
www.swipeblue.org/
Here is the email:
In Michigan, Joe Biden has a slight lead over Donald Trump – but it’s way too close for comfort because Michigan could decide our next President.
And in the Senate race, a new poll shows Gary Peters’ lead down to only 1%. We need Gary Peters for a Democratic majority to end Mitch McConnell’s reign of destruction and lies.
So we need to deliver every possible Michigan voter for Joe Biden and Gary Peters!
That’s why we created a powerful new phone app called SwipeBlue – to use all of our phones together to elect Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and good Democrats all the way down the ballot.
It’s easy and fun:
1. Go to your app store (Apple or Google) and install SwipeBlue.
2. With your permission, we’ll match your contacts to the public voter file and show you which friends are registered as Democrats, Republicans, third party, or independents. (Don’t worry – we fully respect your privacy and theirs.)
3. You guess whether each contact will vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump, and swipe BLUE for Biden, RED for Trump, or GREEN if they are undecided.
After you swipe, we will do the rest:
BLUE (Biden) swipes: we’ll send them 2 texts with a helpful link to vote safely by mail.
GREEN (undecided) swipes: our skilled volunteers will try to persuade them to vote for Joe Biden.
RED (Trump) swipes: we will remove them from our contact lists.
The secret power of SwipeBlue is that you can probably guess how your closer friends and relatives will vote.
So your BLUE, RED, and GREEN swipes will tell us exactly who to contact (or not) to make sure Joe Biden wins.
And to prevent Trump from stealing the election, we must make sure Joe Biden wins by a landslide – so every swipe counts!
SwipeBlue is the most powerful tool for beating Trump. Will you install SwipeBlue today?
Thanks for all you do.
Bob Fertik
p.s. we are adding features daily so if you find any bugs please email support@swipeblue.org
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Democrats.com is the original online news and community site for progressive activists, with over 5 million supporters. We stand for jobs, justice, healthcare, education, the environment, and peace. We’re supported by great progressive partners so we never ask for donations. Please join us at Democrats.com!
You are subscriber #40548971 to Democrats.com Activist Alerts.
Click here if you do not want future newsletters from SwipeBlue.
If you do not want to receive messages from our partners, click here.
Click here to permanently unsubscribe from all Democrats.com lists.
What is SwipeBlue?
SwipeBlue is a free tool for iOS and Android.
SwipeBlue is crucial tool to help ensure your Blue friends actually vote and send Trump packing.
Without the ability to go door to door, digital canvassing via text message is the next best thing.
By swiping Blue, you help us confirm who the true Biden voters are so we can help get them to the polls.
We use publicly available data to show you which of your contacts are registered to vote. All you need to do is swipe blue (left) if you think your contact will vote for Joe Biden, swipe red (right) if they will vote for Donald Trump, or tap and press green if they are undecided.
When you swipe blue, SwipeBlue will check their name against public contact lists, and then text that person a link to verify their registration and pledge to vote safely by mail for Joe Biden. Red voters will be taken off our contact list.
What happens after I swipe?
Every time you swipe blue, SwipeBlue will text that person a link to verify their registration and pledge to vote safely by mail for Joe Biden. You do not have to contact them yourself, unless of course you want to! We will protect your privacy by anonymizing all swipes so they do not refer to you.
Tap and swipe green for swing voters, and we’ll reach out to them with a 1:1 conversation about why they should vote for Biden in 2020.
If you like SwipeBlue, we hope you’ll ask your Democratic friends to join us.
www.swipeblue.org/faq
How can I give up my contacts info legally without their permission???
Your Contacts & Your Permissions
In order to provide the Services, including facilitating your texts or calls to Your Contacts and providing other features of our Services, our systems may need to access, store and process Your Contacts. When you click “Sync Your Contacts” in the App, you give us permission to do those things, and this permission extends to our affiliates and trusted third parties we work with.
www.swipeblue.org/terms
Your Use of TargetSmart Data and Voter File Data
Your use of the Services may include access to and use of certain voter information that we license from TargetSmart, including certain voter file data. Such use is subject to, and you agree to fully abide by, the requirements and restrictions set forth in the Data Usage Agreement, a copy of which are provided at the end of these Terms.
If you use any voter file data, you acknowledge and agree that you must certify and affirm knowledge of, and compliance with, all laws and regulations that govern the acquisition and use of voter file data and agree to abide by federal, state and local laws and regulations governing acceptable use of the voter file data.
License
So long as you comply with these Terms, we give you a limited, nonexclusive, nontransferable, revocable license to use the SwipeBlue App (the “App”), solely to access the Services and to use the Services solely for your informational, noncommercial, and personal use. To the extent any component of the Services may be offered under an open source license, we’ll make that license available to you and the provisions of that license may expressly override some of these Terms. Unless the following restrictions are prohibited by law, you agree not to reverse engineer or decompile the Services, attempt to do so, or assist anyone in doing so. In addition, such license does not include: (a) any resale or commercial use of the Services or any materials contained therein; (b) modifying or otherwise making any derivative uses of the Services or any portion thereof; (c) use of any data mining, robots or similar data gathering or extraction methods; or (d) any use of the Services other than for their intended purpose. Any use of the Services other than as specifically authorized herein, without the prior written permission is strictly prohibited and will terminate the license granted herein. Such unauthorized use may also violate applicable laws including without limitation copyright laws and applicable communications regulations and statutes. This license is revocable at any time
www.swipeblue.org/terms
h/t kpm


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--The Shoddiness of ‘Big Think’ Media

The Shoddiness of ‘Big Think’ Media

The Atlantic , a pretentious American popular ‘ big think ’ magazine ( selling New York Times columnist and PBS NewsHour commentator David Brooks , not by Brooks himself , but by answer to this “ How ” : “ Trust can be rebuilt through the accumulation of small heroic acts — by the outrageous gesture of extending vulnerability in a world that is mean , by proffering faith in other people when that faith may not be returned.
” His pompous answer came from out of nowhere — not even from his ‘ sources ’ — because his article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , hadn ’ t said anything at all about it .
His proposal was totally unsourced , instead of a conclusion from his lengthy prior blab .
In other words : Brooks didn ’ t have any idea , whatsoever , as to why this “ collapse of our institutions and the implosion of social trust ” has occurred in America .
At the end of his 8,500 words , came that utter cop-out .
On October 5th , , a pretentious American popular ‘ big think ’ magazine ( selling 552,242 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8,500-word essay from thecolumnist and PBS NewsHour commentator David Brooks , “ America Is Having a Moral Convulsion : Levels of trust in this country — in our institutions , in our politics , and in one another — are in precipitous decline.
” This article documented that levels of trust in America have plunged ; distrust has soared not only between people but against virtually all institutions .
Brooks devoted the entirety of his essay , however , not to that well-established fact ( which was documented , actually , by Brooks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the magazine ’ s editor added to his lengthy blab ) , but he devoted it instead to paraphrasing other writers who are favored by the U.S .
Establishment , such as Samuel Huntington , Alan Wolfe , Francis Fukuyama , Sisela Bok , Robert Putnam , and Zygmunt Bauman ; and , at the end ( after all of that Establishment ‘ wisdom ’ ) , Brooks closed his commentary with 1,300 words on “ How to Rebuild Trust , ” which finally ended the article with only a one-sentence proposedto @ @ @ @ @ @ @ His pompous answer came from out of nowhere — not even from his ‘ sources ’ — because his article hadn ’ t been saying anything about that , hadn ’ t said anythingabout it .
His proposal was totally unsourced , instead of a conclusion from his lengthy prior blab .
In other words : Brooks didn ’ t have any idea , whatsoever , as to why this “ collapse of our institutions and the implosion of social trust ” has occurred in America .
At the end of his 8,500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How much time are people wasting , to read such stuff ?
But it ’ s typical , not a bit abnormal , for ‘ Big Think ’ media .
Vacuous speculative commentaries , which don ’ t deliver on their promises , are the routine in such media .
Truthful , and reliably sourced , analyses , appear there almost never .
The function of such billionaires-controlled media is to add yet further to the prestige of their selected team of propagandists ( by referring to them as being sources of ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on their TV shows ) .
It is indoctrination , not information , that they actually purvey .
Basically , the public who buy this sort of pretense are paying to be gradually lobotomized and robotized .
No billionaires will hire writers to think deeply about — and pay people to write or say — anything deep , except about possible investments and future trends ; so , the media that they own , the country ’ s major media , issue writings and talkers only in order not to stir the waves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that might cause it to tilt so much as for some of their gold bars to slide off and sink down into the ocean of corruption beneath their yacht .
Mr. Brooks certainly isn ’ t out to stir any waves , or rock any yacht .
So , he has to stay on the safe side — the side that ’ s safe for the ultimate paymasters .
This excludes a writer ’ s getting into what really has caused America ’ s collapse .
If the public will buy such Establishment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the owners of those huge media firms , will be taking all of the losses — and not only on investments , but on everything .
And this is what is actually happening in America .
Therefore , one will have to look elsewhere than in Establishment media in order to find what is causing the decline .
After decades of lying to the public , America ’ s Establishment has naturally become less trusted .
It ’ s plain false to assert that , “ Trust can be rebuilt through the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outrageous gesture of extending vulnerability.
” That 8,500-word ‘ analysis ’ is just another con .
It might sell magazines , but it can ’ t even begin to answer any of the questions .
It is part of America ’ s “ Moral Convulsion , ” and can only advance yet further the “ catastrophic decline in trust over the past few years.
” That ’ s because it doesn ’ t deal with the problems .
It ignores the problems , which are decades of the Establishment ’ s having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of December 2019 … households in the bottom 20 % of incomes had seen their financial assets , such as money in the bank , stock and bond investments or retirement funds , fall by 34 % since the end of the 2007-09 recession , according to Fed data adjusted for inflation .
Those in the middle of the income distribution have seen just 4 % growth .
… Incomes for all but the highest-income Americans have been stagnant or falling for decades .
Median household income in 2018 was only about 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for inflation , according to the Census .
For the poorest 20 % , incomes had declined 2 % .
The three economist-authors knew better than to bite the hands that might feed them in the future , and therefore used only such delicate verbiage to point out the failure of “ standard macroeconomic models.
” Persons who read or listen to heavily promoted writers such as David Brooks won ’ t see any such discussion , at all , because the reasons behind the things that the ‘ intelligentsia ’ are complaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposed in the media which are owned by America ’ s super-rich ( who employ this same ‘ intelligentsia ’ to generate and spread their propaganda ) .
Wall Street Journal article was referring to the period “ since the end of the 2007-09 recession , ” and thereby its readers are only indirectly being informed by it , that the 2008 recession hasn ’ t actually yet ended — if it ever will — except for America ’ s super-rich .
It ended fast , for those super-rich .
However , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ general public is clear in the classic 2014 paper from Saez and Zucman , Thatarticle was referring to the period “ since the end of the 2007-09 recession , ” and thereby its readers are only indirectly being informed by it , that the 2008 recession hasn ’ t actually yet ended — if it ever will — except for America ’ s super-rich .
It ended fast , for those super-rich .
However , the failure of it to end for the general public is clear in the classic 2014 paper from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States Since 1913 ” , which showed , on page 63 , that , whereas the “ Top 0.1 % wealth share ” in 1978 ( before Ronald Reagan entered office ) was 7 % , it was 22 % in 2012 , having risen pretty steadily throughout that 34-year period , taking three times as big a chunk of the nation ’ s privately held wealth at the end as at the beginning .
Also , page 60 shows that the “ Share of income earned by top 0.1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1978 to 8.1 % in 2012 .
So , extending the Reagan economy now , for 42 years , has produced only the extremely wealthiest having been doing well — it has been an economic boom-time for them .
And those are the people who control the media , and the weapons-makers such as Lockheed Martin ( essential for such things as invading Iraq ) , and the megabanks , and the oil companies , etc .
They have been doing fabulously well , by getting their Federal Reserve to pump “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1981-2020 period , 40 years .
But the lower on the wealth and income scale that an American has been , the more the person has been experiencing the growth of debt , instead of the growth of wealth or of income .
It ’ s no ‘ economic recovery ’ , at all , for them .
6.2 The share of overall wealth gains , 1983 to 2010 Table 4 shows the absolute changes in wealth and income between 1983 and 2010 .
The results are even more striking .
Over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relative terms were made by the wealthiest households .
The top one percent saw their average wealth ( in 2010 dollars ) rise by … 71 % .
The remaining part of the top quintile experienced increases from 52 to 101 percent and the fourth quintile by 21 % , while the middle quintile lost 18 % and the poorest 40 percent lost 270 % !
By 2010 , the average wealth of the bottom 40 percent had fallen to - $ 10,600 .
… The top quintile collectively accounted for a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in wealth , while the bottom 80 percent accounted for virtually none .
In addition , the rich parents generally have rich children , and the parents who own little generally have children who also will own little .
An “ equal opportunity ” society is something that today ’ s America definitely is not .
It is instead an aristocracy , which rules the country .
The “ Indebted Demand ” paper has a sub-section that opens : We have so far ignored mobility across saver and borrower dynasties .
Yet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are low while income inequality is rising ( Lee and Solon 2009 , Chetty , Hendren , Kline , Saez , and Turner 2014 ) , several policies have been proposed to promote intergenerational mobility .
In other words : while the children of the super-rich have been experiencing terrific economic opportunities , the children of the poor have been experiencing the exact opposite .
It ’ s not the American dream , but it is the American reality , and hiding it is becoming increasingly difficult to do .
( Just look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ malls , to see that . )
How could “ trust ” NOT be plunging in such a society ?
Conservative Americans blame the poor .
Liberal Americans blame racism , instead .
But , even the White poor are suffering .
And , the billionaires ’ media have succeeded in getting plenty of poor Whites to be racists , instead of revolutionaries ( people who demand to change the system , and not merely its personnel ) .
Though violence will be going up in such a society , the results will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ races than if it is between classes .
The top class obviously don ’ t want it to be a class-war ; and , so , their media instead promote there being a race-war .
“ Trust can be rebuilt through the accumulation of small heroic acts — by the outrageous gesture of extending vulnerability in a world that is mean , by proffering faith in other people when that faith may not be returned.
” Deceiving the public can be essential to the people who hold the real power .
But , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Maybe for as long as bigotries , of all sorts , can be increased , or at least maintained .
Perhaps , if bigotries could end , then the deeper problem could finally be addressed .
However , if bigotries continue , then there either will be no revolution at all , or any revolution that occurs will be misdirected and thus fail to solve the problem .
Every aristocracy , throughout history , has been protected by one or another type of prevalent bigotry .
It deflects the public ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Furthermore , once a given aristocracy are overthrown , will it be replaced by another aristocracy , or instead by an authentic democracy ?
Replacing one aristocracy by another solves nothing .
But that ’ s usually what happens .
And you won ’ t be reading about any of this in ‘ Big Think ’ media , but only in media such as you now are reading .
This is no con ; it ’ s instead the anti-con .
Please pass it along to your friends , to help spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Perhaps it ’ ll get a good discussion-group going .

Eric Zuesse, originally posted at Strategic Culture
The Atlantic, a pretentious American popular ‘big think’ magazine (selling New York Times columnist and PBS NewsHour commentator David Brooks, not by Brooks himself, but by answer to this “How”: “Trust can be rebuilt through the accumulation of small heroic acts — by the outrageous gesture of extending vulnerability in a world that is mean, by proffering faith in other people when that faith may not be returned.” His pompous answer came from out of nowhere — not even from his ‘sources’ — because his article hadn’t been saying anything about that, hadn’t said anything at all about it. His proposal was totally unsourced, instead of a conclusion from his lengthy prior blab. In other words: Brooks didn’t have any idea, whatsoever, as to why this “collapse of our institutions and the implosion of social trust” has occurred in America. At the end of his 8,500 words, came that utter cop-out. On October 5th,, a pretentious American popular ‘big think’ magazine (selling 552,242 copies per issue ), headlined an 8,500-word essay from thecolumnist and PBS NewsHour commentator David Brooks, “America Is Having a Moral Convulsion: Levels of trust in this country — in our institutions, in our politics, and in one another — are in precipitous decline.” This article documented that levels of trust in America have plunged; distrust has soared not only between people but against virtually all institutions. Brooks devoted the entirety of his essay, however, not to that well-established fact (which was documented, actually,by Brooks himself, but by a linked squib that the magazine’s editor added to his lengthy blab ), but he devoted it instead to paraphrasing other writers who are favored by the U.S. Establishment, such as Samuel Huntington, Alan Wolfe, Francis Fukuyama, Sisela Bok, Robert Putnam, and Zygmunt Bauman; and, at the end (after all of that Establishment ‘wisdom’), Brooks closed his commentary with 1,300 words on “How to Rebuild Trust,” which finally ended the article with only a one-sentence proposedto this “How”:.” His pompous answer came from out of nowhere — not even from his ‘sources’ — because his article hadn’t been saying anything about that, hadn’t said anythingabout it. His proposal was totally unsourced, instead of a conclusion from his lengthy prior blab. In other words: Brooks didn’t have any idea, whatsoever, as to why this “collapse of our institutions and the implosion of social trust” has occurred in America. At the end of his 8,500 words, came that utter cop-out.
How much time are people wasting, to read such stuff? But it’s typical, not a bit abnormal, for ‘Big Think’ media. Vacuous speculative commentaries, which don’t deliver on their promises, are the routine in such media. Truthful, and reliably sourced, analyses, appear there almost never. The function of such billionaires-controlled media is to add yet further to the prestige of their selected team of propagandists (by referring to them as being sources of ‘wisdom’, or by interviewing them on their TV shows). It is indoctrination, not information, that they actually purvey.
Basically, the public who buy this sort of pretense are paying to be gradually lobotomized and robotized. No billionaires will hire writers to think deeply about — and pay people to write or say — anything deep, except about possible investments and future trends; so, the media that they own, the country’s major media, issue writings and talkers only in order not to stir the waves and rock their boat in any way that might cause it to tilt so much as for some of their gold bars to slide off and sink down into the ocean of corruption beneath their yacht.
Mr. Brooks certainly isn’t out to stir any waves, or rock any yacht. So, he has to stay on the safe side — the side that’s safe for the ultimate paymasters. This excludes a writer’s getting into what really has caused America’s collapse. If the public will buy such Establishment pablum, then the public, and not the owners of those huge media firms, will be taking all of the losses — and not only on investments, but on everything. And this is what is actually happening in America.
Therefore, one will have to look elsewhere than in Establishment media in order to find what is causing the decline. After decades of lying to the public, America’s Establishment has naturally become less trusted. It’s plain false to assert that, “Trust can be rebuilt through the accumulation of small heroic acts — by the outrageous gesture of extending vulnerability.” That 8,500-word ‘analysis’ is just another con. It might sell magazines, but it can’t even begin to answer any of the questions. It is part of America’s “Moral Convulsion,” and can only advance yet further the “catastrophic decline in trust over the past few years.” That’s because it doesn’t deal with the problems. It ignores the problems, which are decades of the Establishment’s having been lying to the public.
As of December 2019 … households in the bottom 20% of incomes had seen their financial assets, such as money in the bank, stock and bond investments or retirement funds, fall by 34% since the end of the 2007-09 recession, according to Fed data adjusted for inflation. Those in the middle of the income distribution have seen just 4% growth. … Incomes for all but the highest-income Americans have been stagnant or falling for decades. Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%.
That article also vaguely mentioned an important economic study which had been published as a working paper that same month. The paper wasn’t linked to, and even its title wasn’t mentioned. (This is the way to keep the readers away from the facts so that the ‘news’-medium’s paraphrase will be accepted and believed, even if it misrepresents that alleged source.) It’s “Indebted Demand” , which the study defined by saying, “We refer to a situation in which demand is depressed due to elevated debt levels as indebted demand.” That paper documented the failure — the falseness — of standard economic models, which have been guiding the U.S. Federal Reserve (especially after the costly invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, so as to finance the resultant soaring federal deficits from America’s exploding military expenses):
Popular [among America’s super-rich] expansionary policies [such as — such as accommodative monetary policy and deficit spending — generate a debt-financed short-run boom at the expense of indebted demand in the future. When demand is sufficiently indebted, the economy gets stuck in a debt driven liquidity trap, or debt trap. Escaping a debt trap requires consideration of less standard macroeconomic policies, such as those focused on redistribution or those reducing the structural sources of high inequality. [among America’s super-rich][such as “QE” 1, 2, 3, 4, …]
The three economist-authors knew better than to bite the hands that might feed them in the future, and therefore used only such delicate verbiage to point out the failure of “standard macroeconomic models.” Persons who read or listen to heavily promoted writers such as David Brooks won’t see any such discussion, at all, because the reasons behind the things that the ‘intelligentsia’ are complaining about need to be hidden instead of exposed in the media which are owned by America’s super-rich (who employ this same ‘intelligentsia’ to generate and spread their propaganda).
Wall Street Journal article was referring to the period “since the end of the 2007-09 recession,” and thereby its readers are only indirectly being informed by it, that the 2008 recession hasn’t actually yet ended — if it ever will — except for America’s super-rich. It ended fast, for those super-rich. However, the failure of it to end for the general public is clear in the classic 2014 paper from Saez and Zucman, Thatarticle was referring to the period “since the end of the 2007-09 recession,” and thereby its readers are only indirectly being informed by it, that the 2008 recession hasn’t actually yet ended — if it ever will — except for America’s super-rich. It ended fast, for those super-rich. However, the failure of it to end for the general public is clear in the classic 2014 paper from Saez and Zucman, “Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913” , which showed, on page 63, that, whereas the “Top 0.1% wealth share” in 1978 (before Ronald Reagan entered office) was 7%, it was 22% in 2012, having risen pretty steadily throughout that 34-year period, taking three times as big a chunk of the nation’s privately held wealth at the end as at the beginning. Also, page 60 shows that the “Share of income earned by top 0.1% wealth-holders” rose from 2.8% in 1978 to 8.1% in 2012. So, extending the Reagan economy now, for 42 years, has produced only the extremely wealthiest having been doing well — it has been an economic boom-time for them. And those are the people who control the media, and the weapons-makers such as Lockheed Martin (essential for such things as invading Iraq), and the megabanks, and the oil companies, etc. They have been doing fabulously well, by getting their Federal Reserve to pump “Indebted Demand,” throughout at least the 1981-2020 period, 40 years. But the lower on the wealth and income scale that an American has been, the more the person has been experiencing the growth of debt, instead of the growth of wealth or of income. It’s no ‘economic recovery’, at all, for them.
Furthermore, as Edward Wolff documented in his classic November 2012 study “The Asset Price Meltdown”
6.2 The share of overall wealth gains, 1983 to 2010
Table 4 shows the absolute changes in wealth and income between 1983 and 2010. The results are even more striking. Over this period, the largest gains in relative terms were made by the wealthiest households. The top one percent saw their average wealth (in 2010 dollars) rise by … 71%. The remaining part of the top quintile experienced increases from 52 to 101 percent and the fourth quintile by 21%, while the middle quintile lost 18% and the poorest 40 percent lost 270%! By 2010, the average wealth of the bottom 40 percent had fallen to -$10,600. … The top quintile collectively accounted for a little over 100% of the total growth in wealth, while the bottom 80 percent accounted for virtually none.
In addition, the rich parents generally have rich children, and the parents who own little generally have children who also will own little. An “equal opportunity” society is something that today’s America definitely is not. It is instead an aristocracy, which rules the country. The “Indebted Demand” paper has a sub-section that opens:
9.4 Intergenerational mobility
We have so far ignored mobility across saver and borrower dynasties. Yet, since current mobility levels in the US are low while income inequality is rising (Lee and Solon 2009, Chetty, Hendren, Kline, Saez, and Turner 2014), several policies have been proposed to promote intergenerational mobility.
In other words: while the children of the super-rich have been experiencing terrific economic opportunities, the children of the poor have been experiencing the exact opposite. It’s not the American dream, but it is the American reality, and hiding it is becoming increasingly difficult to do. (Just look at the downtowns, and the shopping malls, to see that.) How could “trust” NOT be plunging in such a society?
Conservative Americans blame the poor. Liberal Americans blame racism, instead. But, even the White poor are suffering. And, the billionaires’ media have succeeded in getting plenty of poor Whites to be racists, instead of revolutionaries (people who demand to change the system, and not merely its personnel). Though violence will be going up in such a society, the results will be very different if it is between races than if it is between classes. The top class obviously don’t want it to be a class-war; and, so, their media instead promote there being a race-war.
“Trust can be rebuilt through the accumulation of small heroic acts — by the outrageous gesture of extending vulnerability in a world that is mean, by proffering faith in other people when that faith may not be returned.”
Deceiving the public can be essential to the people who hold the real power. But, how long can it continue to succeed? Maybe for as long as bigotries, of all sorts, can be increased, or at least maintained. Perhaps, if bigotries could end, then the deeper problem could finally be addressed. However, if bigotries continue, then there either will be no revolution at all, or any revolution that occurs will be misdirected and thus fail to solve the problem. Every aristocracy, throughout history, has been protected by one or another type of prevalent bigotry. It deflects the public’s incoherent rage, to the wrong targets. Furthermore, once a given aristocracy are overthrown, will it be replaced by another aristocracy, or instead by an authentic democracy? Replacing one aristocracy by another solves nothing. But that’s usually what happens.
And you won’t be reading about any of this in ‘Big Think’ media, but only in media such as you now are reading. This is no con; it’s instead the anti-con. Please pass it along to your friends, to help spread the anti-con, maybe to their friends. Perhaps it’ll get a good discussion-group going.
—————


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Republican Running Against Maxine Waters Releases Viral Ad: ‘Our District Is In Ruins’ He recently r

Republican Running Against Maxine Waters Releases Viral Ad: ‘Our District Is In Ruins’ He recently released an ad which has gone viral

Do you know where I am ?
Maxine Waters ’ $ 6 Million Mansion .
Do you know where I @ @ @ @ @ District .
Mansion Maxine Waters doesn ’ t live in her District — I do @ @ @ @ @ Collins and I ’ m running for Congress against Maxine Waters .

Do you know where I am?
Maxine Waters’ $6 Million Mansion.
Do you know where I’m NOT?
Her District.
Mansion Maxine Waters doesn’t live in her District — I do.
My name is Joe Collins and I’m running for Congress against Maxine Waters.
Help Me WIN: t.co/K4OcfhUR0E pic.twitter.com/GgnmvSWSq9
— Joe E. Collins III For Congress CA-43 (@joecollins43rd) October 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--WATCH ‘immune’ Trump dance to ‘YMCA’ & offer to kiss crowd at 1st post-Covid rally in Florida

US President Donald Trump made an energetic showing at his first campaign rally since contracting Covid-19 , offering to dole @ @ @ @ @ ” kisses to those in attendance and capping off the event with lively dance steps @ @ @ @ @ I went through it , now they say I ’ m immune – I feel @ @ @ @ @ told a crowd of supporters in Sanford , Florida on Monday night , referring to @ @ @ @ @ month , from which he has since recovered .

He’s got the moves, eh…
US President Donald Trump made an energetic showing at his first campaign rally since contracting Covid-19, offering to dole out “big, fat” kisses to those in attendance and capping off the event with lively dance steps to ‘YMCA.’
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“I went through it, now they say I’m immune – I feel so powerful,” Trump told a crowd of supporters in Sanford, Florida on Monday night, referring to his coronavirus diagnosis earlier this month, from which he has since recovered.
Trump dancing in Florida.
First campaign event since testing positive for Covid 19 pic.twitter.com/YW0djF6BZV — Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) October 13, 2020
h/t COVID19


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Astronomers capture exact moment supermassive black hole DEVOURED entire star

Through constant vigilance and some good fortune , astronomers have managed to capture the moment a supermassive black hole in @ @ @ @ @ away tore a star apart .
The so-called ‘ tidal disruption event ’ ( TDE @ @ @ @ @ death of a star humanity has ever witnessed .
Astronomers were alerted by the intense @ @ @ @ @ hundreds of millions of light years away , just before parts of the star disappeared @ @ @ @ @ s event horizon after being ‘ spaghettified ’ by the immense gravity .

Space seems scary…
Imagine Earth being swallowed up…
Through constant vigilance and some good fortune, astronomers have managed to capture the moment a supermassive black hole in a galaxy 215 million light-years away tore a star apart.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The so-called ‘tidal disruption event’ (TDE) is the closest such death of a star humanity has ever witnessed.
Astronomers were alerted by the intense flash of light, visible hundreds of millions of light years away, just before parts of the star disappeared into the black hole’s event horizon after being ‘spaghettified’ by the immense gravity.
h/t COVID19


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Kim Jong Un Wipes Away Tears During Rare ‘Apology’ For Litany Of North’s Hardships

Looks like Kim is a big softy… I wonder if he ’ s acting here ?
?
?
See even @ @ @ @ @ !
!
The big news out of North Korea this past weekend was Saturday ’ @ @ @ @ @ 75th anniversary of the country ’ s ruling party wherein Pyongyang showcased a previously unseen @ @ @ @ @ ICBM ) , as well as what appeared to be domestic-built anti-air defense systems akin @ @ @ @ @ now with more footage and official translations hitting international press on Monday , a rare @ @ @ @ @ the moment Kim Jong Un shed tears in an emotional speech which included an apology @ @ @ @ @ going viral .

Looks like Kim is a big softy…
Like the stay puff marshmellow man…
I wonder if he’s acting here???
See even Tyrants have a heart !!!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The big news out of North Korea this past weekend was Saturday’s military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the country’s ruling party wherein Pyongyang showcased a previously unseen new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), as well as what appeared to be domestic-built anti-air defense systems akin to Russian S-400s.
But now with more footage and official translations hitting international press on Monday, a rare and somewhat bizarre clip of the moment Kim Jong Un shed tears in an emotional speech which included an apology to North Korean citizens is going viral.
h/t COVID19


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--The Dollar Index is not weak or strong… it is in a very normal range seen in the past 5 years.  The

The Dollar Index is not weak or strong… it is in a very normal range seen in the past 5 @ @

The Dollar Index is not weak or strong… it is in a very normal range seen in the past 5 years.
The Trade-weighted dollar index shows a stronger pattern. pic.twitter.com/ri3NxLbG0Q
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) October 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--We Are in the Midst of the Most Obvious and Biggest Bubble in History.

We are in the midst of the Most Obvious and Biggest Bubble in History. — Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) October 12, 2020
Another massive inflow to $QQQ. 3/4 of the Nasdaq 100 ETF's largest inflows have happened within the last month. The other one was in 2000. pic.twitter.com/PFHcAndiKL — Sarah Ponczek (@SarahPonczek) October 13, 2020
Dow Jones : Moment of truth nearing. pic.twitter.com/p482KfKdTi — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 13, 2020
Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine study has been paused due to unexplained illness in participant $JNJ. — Thomas Thornton (@TommyThornton) October 13, 2020
Fitch: Civil War might be bad for the U.S.'s AAA rating.t.co/euTTGZBbQL pic.twitter.com/abeQh4JLlV — Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) October 12, 2020
MORE THAN HALF OF SMALL BUSINESS NEVER CAME BACK pic.twitter.com/grZ0XEKQlg — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 13, 2020
Ahead of today’s NFIB report, the Chicago Fed Weekly Credit Harder to Get Survey jumped to its highest lvl since Apr ‘14. It’s the largest 1Q change since Aug ‘06. This would suggest a sharp rise in the % of US small bus. reporting a tightening of lending conditions in September. pic.twitter.com/Kg0cjWlSCF — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 13, 2020
U.S. consumer prices rose at a slower pace in September t.co/esQzmqczUU pic.twitter.com/5cmk3VOfOg — Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 13, 2020
…retail positioning is once again very long-biased… monetary policy intervention has once again removed all “fears” of a correction, recession, or bear market… We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Employment’s Recovery Road Comes to an End

Jobs didn ’ t get much worse in September , but they stopped getting better .
This is a tale of where the recovery road for the US economy ended .
Unemployment is the crux of the Covidcrisis economic story .
While jobs showed a little improvement in September , a little digging through the numbers reveals the return to full employment has started a turn toward the worse .
( Not as bad as “ worst , ” but “ worse ” than May-July . )
The two warmest parts of the economy during the September calm that I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ A September to Remember “ ) were the job market and the housing market .
I promised to cover those in detail in separate articles because they are more important than the other currents I brought up and more complex to where the headline numbers don ’ t quite lay out an accurate picture .
In this article , I ’ ll uncover what lies below the surface of the employment numbers .
Let us dig deeper into the slightly positive jobs reports of September At the start of September , MarketWatch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery was waning : ‘ What ’ s concerning is that the pace of jobs growth is slowing down ’ — economists react to August jobs report The August jobs report on Friday showed the coronavirus-battered U.S. economy recovered 1.4 million jobs last month , with the unemployment rate falling to 8.4 % from 10.2 % … .
“ Yes we ’ ve added large numbers the last few months , but still digging out of a very big hole.
” — Martha Gimbel , economist at Schmidt Futures… .
“ What ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs growth is slowing down .
If we had nothing but months like Aug going forward , it ’ d take another 8 months to get back to Feb levels , and longer to get back to our pre-COVID trajectory.
” — Ernie Tedeschi , economist at Evercore ISI… .
“ Unemployment breaking the 10 % barrier so decisively is a big psychological lift … .
The hiring of Census workers significantly added to jobs , but there were other key gains in the hard-hit retailing sector .
Unfortunately , the easier jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll be battling permanent layoffs once thought to be temporary , bankruptcies , secondary layoffs and maybe major layoffs in the airline industry .
Expect that starting this month we ’ ll struggle to drop the unemployment rate as much , and possibly see break-even jobs months and even backsliding.
” — Robert Frick , corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union .
And so it actually went in the month that played out .
New jobless reports stacked up like this at the start of September : New jobless claims continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NEW jobless claims , coming in at a rate four times faster than seen before the Covidcrisis .
Moreover , the entire tiny amount by which new jobless claims dropped is more than accounted for by the fact that our most populous state , California , stopped processing initial unemployment claims until it can resolve its the claims fraud it has identified .
Continuing claims also continued to drop but were still churning along at a much higher level than pre-COVID : As Zero Hedge reported in conjunction with these minimally improving graphs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely useless ” and even misleading for a second reason bigger than California in impact : That would have looked like this , according to ZH , presenting an actual slight rise in joblessness ( and this is without factoring in the California situation ) : Add up all joblessness , and the grand total actually looked like this : From trundling downward to hiking sharply back uphill ( and that is still without factoring in the California situation because you can ’ t because the number of legitimate new claims isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The fix is in So , while the headline numbers from August that arrived in September seemed to show some improvement , the real story is that falling unemployment did more than come to a dead end , it turned back uphill : So , they fixed it .
Of course it is .
It always is when the government ’ s old ways of jacking the numbers around are no longer working for them , so they have to calibrate in new methods to improve the results .
And , just to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bother correcting the numbers from the earlier part of the Covidcrisis when it looks better for August/September to leave the old numbers looking worse because of how adjustments had been made so the newly adjusted numbers in September shine all the more .
Besides , the grunts doing all the crunching are short-staffed due to the crisis anyway .
But it gets worse Those were the government numbers , but as you can expect the truth gets worse when you look at non-government reports that didn ’ t get the same adjustment modifications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new jobs for the month of August came in well below what economists had expected : So , to the charts of job losses above , we add the following chart of new jobs that opened up according to ADP : You can see the moves to the positive have nearly ended , and the total of all positives during reopening fell far short of making up for the nosedive we took during the COVID lockdown .
Eventually , when temporary job layoffs last long enough , they are rolled over into being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into permanent status have kept tallying up , the total permanent job losses by the start of September looked like this : The increase in permanent layoffs demonstrates what I ’ ve meant when I said during the summer that , by late summer , it would become obvious how much the economy had NOT recovered under reopening .
The start of recovery , I said , would look like a “ V. ” For many , that would be enough to confirm their V-shaped recovery narrative .
However , what mattered , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for , was how far short the upside of that “ V ” ended compared to the downside .
In other words , you only know the “ permanent ” damage when you have gone on long enough through the reopening to see where recovery stopped and what that leaves you with .
The permanent job layoffs are the people who go from COVID unemployed due to temporary shutdowns to permanently unemployed because their employers never reopened for business due to bankruptcies or to infeasibility under reduced occupancy mandates and other kinds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the total labor force , ZH reported the shortfall in the recovery looked like this : We sputtered out less than halfway back to normal — more of a square-root than a “ V ” so far .
By October , The Hill summarized what we saw during the September reports this way : While the president seems to have been deploying his “ art of the deal ” by walking away from a bad deal to get the other side to come down , it is not clear — yet — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a deal of any kind .
If not , the hurt under this huge overhang of permanent unemployment will be huge for the entire economy as unemployment benefits of various kinds and business relief programs start to expire .
In short , we ’ re not out of the woods .
In fact , we ’ re barely beginning to see what the woods feels like as the evening shadows settle in around us with a long winter ’ s night still ahead .
Thus the month of waning summer in September , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start of October : So , the apparent terminus in our road back to full employment that we came to in August , played out as expected .
Where does all of this leave us ?
As you can see from this graph put out by Zero Hedge , it leaves us right back on track with a longterm decline in job growth that began long before the Covidcrisis at the start of 2019 .
Only thing is , the economy had extremely low unemployment back when the total job openings started that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to that downtrend in total jobs that are available at a time when the economy has near-record unemployment .
Not what you need to climb out of a deep hole .
That ’ s why we are now utterly dependent on government ( fiscal ) stimulus .
Without those $ 1,200 stimulus checks , without the $ 600 augmentation of unemployment ( now $ 300 ) , and without the extension of unemployment eligibility beyond its normal limits , stock-market sentiment and especially consumer sentiment , as highlighted in my last article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sustained massive unemployment problem laid out above .
For now , people are remaining hopeful that stimulus will carry us over the COVID chasm .
So , consumer sentiment has remained fairly good .
However , Jim Rickards , former senior managing director for market intelligence at Omnis , Inc. , believes that hope is under dire threat due to these problems .
Matching up with my own views about the dead Fed , Rickards goes on to say , The Fed , as we have seen , is now reluctant to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with ramping up its existing programs and has handed the baton off to the federal government .
That is what Powell ’ s words were all about .
That ’ s because the Federal government can put money ( created by the Fed ) directly into the hands of the people .
Stimulating stocks isn ’ t going to help in the present economic crisis .
High inflation will begin if people lose faith in the dollar or if too much money winds up chasing too few goods , as could become the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money into the hands of the unemployed than they had when employed .
So long as the government only offsets the losses , it won ’ t matter unless we also have a shortage of goods .
We could enter exactly that scenario as unemployment or COVID causes a shortage of manufactured goods or breakdowns in shipping or closures of retail or if trade wars diminish supplies from overseas .
So , I ’ m not predicting high inflation will happen but saying be vigilant .
Hyperinflation isn ’ t likely to happen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless we also have a shortage of goods or if the stimulus money continues to exceed people ’ s losses .
Then that money will bid prices up to get the goods that are in short supply .
That is the ugly road by which you can wind up with very high unemployment and high inflation at the same time .
The road to recovery has ended .
That doesn ’ t mean we can not keep recovering .
It just means we ’ ll have to build more road as we go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ road has delivered all it is going to .
Progress will be much slower and more problematic .
It ’ s not even clear we have any leaders capable of mappings out a new road or of funding its construction , and meanwhile pitchforks and torches are running down the old road toward us .

by David Haggith
Jobs didn’t get much worse in September, but they stopped getting better.
This is a tale of where the recovery road for the US economy ended. Unemployment is the crux of the Covidcrisis economic story. While jobs showed a little improvement in September, a little digging through the numbers reveals the return to full employment has started a turn toward the worse. (Not as bad as “worst,” but “worse” than May-July.)
The two warmest parts of the economy during the September calm that I wrote about in my last article (“A September to Remember“) were the job market and the housing market. I promised to cover those in detail in separate articles because they are more important than the other currents I brought up and more complex to where the headline numbers don’t quite lay out an accurate picture. In this article, I’ll uncover what lies below the surface of the employment numbers.
Let us dig deeper into the slightly positive jobs reports of September
At the start of September, MarketWatch gave the first hints that the jobs recovery was waning:
‘What’s concerning is that the pace of jobs growth is slowing down’ — economists react to August jobs report The August jobs report on Friday showed the coronavirus-battered U.S. economy recovered 1.4 million jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.4% from 10.2%…. “Yes we’ve added large numbers the last few months, but still digging out of a very big hole.” — Martha Gimbel, economist at Schmidt Futures…. “What’s concerning is that the pace of jobs growth is slowing down. If we had nothing but months like Aug going forward, it’d take another 8 months to get back to Feb levels, and longer to get back to our pre-COVID trajectory.” — Ernie Tedeschi, economist at Evercore ISI…. “Unemployment breaking the 10% barrier so decisively is a big psychological lift … . The hiring of Census workers significantly added to jobs, but there were other key gains in the hard-hit retailing sector. Unfortunately, the easier jobs gains are over, and now we’ll be battling permanent layoffs once thought to be temporary, bankruptcies, secondary layoffs and maybe major layoffs in the airline industry. Expect that starting this month we’ll struggle to drop the unemployment rate as much, and possibly see break-even jobs months and even backsliding.” — Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. MarketWatch
And so it actually went in the month that played out.
New jobless reports stacked up like this at the start of September:
New jobless claims continued to drop, but they were still NEW jobless claims, coming in at a rate four times faster than seen before the Covidcrisis. Moreover, the entire tiny amount by which new jobless claims dropped is more than accounted for by the fact that our most populous state, California, stopped processing initial unemployment claims until it can resolve its the claims fraud it has identified.
Continuing claims also continued to drop but were still churning along at a much higher level than pre-COVID:
As Zero Hedge reported in conjunction with these minimally improving graphs, however, these numbers were “completely useless” and even misleading for a second reason bigger than California in impact:
There is just one problem: the latest claims report was nothing more than the latest goalseeked government propaganda, boosted this time by a brand new “seasonal adjustment.” As Goldman explains, the DOL switched from a multiplicative to an additive seasonal factor in this release. If one had applied the historical, multiplicative, seasonal factor, the seasonally adjusted initial claims would have decreased by only 17k to 994k, 44k worse than expected. Zero Hedge
That would have looked like this, according to ZH, presenting an actual slight rise in joblessness (and this is without factoring in the California situation):
It gets worse: when looking at the initial applications under the separate federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program which targets the self-employed, gig workers and others who don’t typically qualify for state programs, here the number jumped by about 152,000 to 759,000….
Add up all joblessness, and the grand total actually looked like this:
From trundling downward to hiking sharply back uphill (and that is still without factoring in the California situation because you can’t because the number of legitimate new claims isn’t even known by California.)
The fix is in
So, while the headline numbers from August that arrived in September seemed to show some improvement, the real story is that falling unemployment did more than come to a dead end, it turned back uphill:
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits could fall sharply when the government reports jobless claims on Thursday, but it won’t necessarily mean far fewer people are losing their jobs…. Why the change? The agency’s traditional season-adjustment process worked fine when the U.S. experienced regular ups and downs in employment around the holidays or the end of the school year…. The claims numbers are adjusted to smooth out these normal swings in employment. Yet the old approach to seasonal adjustments has been thrown out of whack by a once-in-a-century pandemic. MarketWatch
So, they fixed it.
The new method of adjustment, based on an additive instead of a multiplicative approach, is complicated to explain.
Of course it is. It always is when the government’s old ways of jacking the numbers around are no longer working for them, so they have to calibrate in new methods to improve the results. And, just to make the improvement look better …
If it’s not confusing enough, the government won’t revise prior figures for jobless claims under the old method of seasonal adjustments.
Why bother correcting the numbers from the earlier part of the Covidcrisis when it looks better for August/September to leave the old numbers looking worse because of how adjustments had been made so the newly adjusted numbers in September shine all the more. Besides, the grunts doing all the crunching are short-staffed due to the crisis anyway.
But it gets worse
Those were the government numbers, but as you can expect the truth gets worse when you look at non-government reports that didn’t get the same adjustment modifications. ADP’s September report on new jobs for the month of August came in well below what economists had expected:
Private-sector companies added or regained 428,000 jobs in August, ADP said…. Wall Street economists had forecast an increase of 1 million private-sector jobs…. MarketWatch
So, to the charts of job losses above, we add the following chart of new jobs that opened up according to ADP:
You can see the moves to the positive have nearly ended, and the total of all positives during reopening fell far short of making up for the nosedive we took during the COVID lockdown.
The economy has recouped fewer than half of the 20 million-plus jobs lost in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic. What’s worse, a number of companies … have recently announced new layoffs with their businesses still struggling months after the pandemic began.
Eventually, when temporary job layoffs last long enough, they are rolled over into being considered permanent layoffs. As those rollovers into permanent status have kept tallying up, the total permanent job losses by the start of September looked like this:
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Recovery Road’s dead end
The increase in permanent layoffs demonstrates what I’ve meant when I said during the summer that, by late summer, it would become obvious how much the economy had NOT recovered under reopening. The start of recovery, I said, would look like a “V.” For many, that would be enough to confirm their V-shaped recovery narrative. However, what mattered, which I urged you to look out for, was how far short the upside of that “V” ended compared to the downside. In other words, you only know the “permanent” damage when you have gone on long enough through the reopening to see where recovery stopped and what that leaves you with.
The permanent job layoffs are the people who go from COVID unemployed due to temporary shutdowns to permanently unemployed because their employers never reopened for business due to bankruptcies or to infeasibility under reduced occupancy mandates and other kinds of permanent business closures.
As a percentage of the total labor force, ZH reported the shortfall in the recovery looked like this:
We sputtered out less than halfway back to normal — more of a square-root than a “V” so far.
By October, The Hill summarized what we saw during the September reports this way:
The number of people who have joined the ranks of long-term unemployment has spiked to a record high in a worrying sign of the economic recovery’s health…. “Last week we saw the biggest spike in long-term unemployment since they started measuring long-term unemployment,” said Michele Evermore, senior researcher and policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project. The number of long-term unemployed workers is expected to rise in the months ahead, something likely to be exacerbated by President Trump’s decision to scrap talks with Democrats on a COVID-19 economic relief bill before the elections. The talks were aimed at restoring at least some of the supplemental federal unemployment benefits that dried up at the end of July. The Hill
While the president seems to have been deploying his “art of the deal” by walking away from a bad deal to get the other side to come down, it is not clear — yet — if that worked and will result in a deal of any kind. If not, the hurt under this huge overhang of permanent unemployment will be huge for the entire economy as unemployment benefits of various kinds and business relief programs start to expire.
Without a new relief package, small businesses hoping for another round of forgivable loans will be left in the dust. The travel, leisure and entertainment sectors, in particular, may face closures and additional layoffs as colder weather makes dining and entertaining outdoors difficult. Even if the pandemic comes under control, it could take years to return to earlier employment levels. “It’s bad news,” said Evermore. “It’s hard on people to be unemployed for such a long time. It’s hard on their mental health, it’s hard on their children’s performance in school, and it makes their employment prospects much worse in the future.”
In short, we’re not out of the woods. In fact, we’re barely beginning to see what the woods feels like as the evening shadows settle in around us with a long winter’s night still ahead.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cited the swelled ranks of the long-term unemployed as a primary reason more government support was necessary. “There is a risk that the rapid initial gains from reopening may transition to a longer than expected slog back to full recovery as some segments struggle with the pandemic’s continued fallout,” he said in a speech urging Congress to pass more fiscal stimulus.
Thus the month of waning summer in September, turned notably and predictably worse by the start of October:
‘Massively concerning’ jobs report sends a signal that the economic recovery could be fading Weaker-than-expected job growth in September sent a signal that the sharp economic recovery off the coronavirus shutdown may be hitting a wall. The Labor Department reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 661,000 in September, held back by declines in government employment and an exodus of workers from the labor force…. As it stood, the total was a fairly wide miss from Wall Street’s expectation of 800,000. The unemployment rate fell more than expected to 7.9%, but that was mostly due to a sharp decline in labor force participation. CNBC
So, the apparent terminus in our road back to full employment that we came to in August, played out as expected.
“This report is massively concerning. We are not where we need to be, nor are we moving fast enough in the right direction as we head into fall.”
Where does all of this leave us?
As you can see from this graph put out by Zero Hedge, it leaves us right back on track with a longterm decline in job growth that began long before the Covidcrisis at the start of 2019.
Only thing is, the economy had extremely low unemployment back when the total job openings started that downtrend, and now we’re back to that downtrend in total jobs that are available at a time when the economy has near-record unemployment. Not what you need to climb out of a deep hole.
That’s why we are now utterly dependent on government (fiscal) stimulus. Without those $1,200 stimulus checks, without the $600 augmentation of unemployment (now $300), and without the extension of unemployment eligibility beyond its normal limits, stock-market sentiment and especially consumer sentiment, as highlighted in my last article, will fall fast in light of the sustained massive unemployment problem laid out above.
For now, people are remaining hopeful that stimulus will carry us over the COVID chasm. So, consumer sentiment has remained fairly good. However, Jim Rickards, former senior managing director for market intelligence at Omnis, Inc., believes that hope is under dire threat due to these problems.
Businesses that were expecting a reopening and a V-shaped recovery have found that the reopenings have been delayed by new lockdowns and that the recovery is real but weak. We’re starting to see a second wave of layoffs as the Payroll Protection Plan money runs out and the economy doesn’t recover as hoped. Meanwhile, states and cities are also planning huge layoffs in the coming weeks as tax revenues dry up and the costs of riots and looting begin to add up. The reality is, the economy’s in very bad shape. The idea that we’re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense. The data is already indicating we’re in a recovery, yes. But if you fall into a 50-foot hole and climb 10 feet up, you’re still 40 feet in the hole. We’re not going to see 2019 levels of output until 2023 at the earliest. We’re not going to see 2019 low levels of unemployment until probably 2025. We’re not getting back there for three or four or maybe five years. So we’re looking at a long, slow recovery. And that’s if things don’t get worse from here. But they could, especially if we get a deadly second wave of the virus. Daily Reckoning
Matching up with my own views about the dead Fed, Rickards goes on to say,
The Fed can “print” all the money in the world. But if people don’t actually spend it; but save it instead, it won’t create inflation because there’s no velocity. And now, because of high unemployment and failing businesses, people are not spending money even when the economy reopens. They’re saving instead….. And since consumption is 70% of the U.S. economy, the immediate aftermath of the pandemic will be slow growth, disinflation and even deflation (disinflation and deflation aren’t the same). So we’re looking at disinflation and deflation for now, despite all the money creation we’re seeing now. But that doesn’t mean inflation is dead. The inflation will come, just not yet. Inflation will come when people lose confidence in the dollar and suddenly dump dollars for any hard assets they can find….
The Fed, as we have seen, is now reluctant to step in with any new programs or with ramping up its existing programs and has handed the baton off to the federal government. That is what Powell’s words were all about. That’s because the Federal government can put money (created by the Fed) directly into the hands of the people. Stimulating stocks isn’t going to help in the present economic crisis.
High inflation will begin if people lose faith in the dollar or if too much money winds up chasing too few goods, as could become the case if government stimulus keeps putting more money into the hands of the unemployed than they had when employed. So long as the government only offsets the losses, it won’t matter unless we also have a shortage of goods. We could enter exactly that scenario as unemployment or COVID causes a shortage of manufactured goods or breakdowns in shipping or closures of retail or if trade wars diminish supplies from overseas.
So, I’m not predicting high inflation will happen but saying be vigilant. Hyperinflation isn’t likely to happen with new stimulus money if it comes unless we also have a shortage of goods or if the stimulus money continues to exceed people’s losses. Then that money will bid prices up to get the goods that are in short supply.
That is the ugly road by which you can wind up with very high unemployment and high inflation at the same time.
The road to recovery has ended. That doesn’t mean we cannot keep recovering. It just means we’ll have to build more road as we go from this point on. The easy road has delivered all it is going to. Progress will be much slower and more problematic. It’s not even clear we have any leaders capable of mappings out a new road or of funding its construction, and meanwhile pitchforks and torches are running down the old road toward us.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination has put Roe v. Wade back into the national spotlight

When President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to fill the open seat on the Supreme Court , we immediately witnessed an explosion of speculation about what this could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade .
Most pro-life activists cheered Barrett ’ s nomination because they assumed that she would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade if given the opportunity , and many pro-choice activists warned that America would soon resemble “ the Handmaid ’ s Tale ” if Barrett was confirmed .
But as President Trump explained during the first presidential debate , nobody actually knows how she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it is very unlikely that she will give a direct answer to any questions about Roe v. Wade that she is asked during the Senate hearings that are currently taking place .
I truly wish that Barrett would tell us how she would rule , because it is of the utmost importance .
Roe v. Wade has been very hotly debated ever since it was decided in 1973 , and Barrett ’ s nomination has put abortion back into the national spotlight .
On Monday , a brand new ABC News/Washington Post @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overwhelmingly want the Supreme Court to uphold Roe v. Wade… I don ’ t know if I have the words to describe how deeply saddened I am by those numbers .
By more than a two to one margin , Americans say that they support Roe v. Wade , and other surveys have come up with similar numbers .
For example , just consider this poll which was taken in September… A majority of American adults say they do not support the Supreme Court completely overturning Roe v. Wade , according to new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Poll .
Sixty-six percent of adults say that they don ’ t believe the Supreme Court should completely overturn the decision that established a woman ’ s right to an abortion in at least the first three months of a pregnancy .
Twenty-nine percent of adults say they do want the Court to completely overturn the ruling .
The numbers are slightly different , but once again we see another survey in which Americans favor keeping Roe v. Wade by more than a two to one margin .
And as ABC News has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been conducted in recent years have also shown that Americans overwhelmingly want Roe v. Wade kept in place… I know that a lot of people out there have been hoping for a nationwide awakening that would cause a seismic shift in our national moral values , but these numbers tell us that it is simply not happening .
In this latest ABC News/Washington Post poll , even 44 percent of “ evangelical Protestants ” want Roe v. Wade to remain the law of the land… But many conservatives are hoping that Roe v. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can get enough conservative justices on to the Supreme Court .
Unfortunately , Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh have already shown that they are definitely not “ conservative ” , and I do not believe that either one of them would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade .
As for Amy Coney Barrett , the truth is that we don ’ t know how she would vote , and President Trump made that abundantly clear during the first presidential debate… However , I do believe that Amy Coney Barrett has personal pro-life beliefs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past actions… But from a legal perspective , she has never been willing to publicly say that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided , and she has never been willing to publicly commit to overturning it .
And in her opening statement for the current Senate hearings , she stated that it is her philosophy that the courts “ are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in our public life ” … So the truth is that it is very unclear how she would rule on Roe v. Wade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is clear is that the vast majority of the American people want Roe v. Wade to remain in place , and most states would continue to keep abortion legal even if Roe v. Wade was overturned someday .
Needless to say , this has enormous implications for the future of our society .
If we continue on the path that we are on , there is no future for America , and right now there is absolutely no indication that we will be changing course any time soon .

by Michael Snyder
When President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to fill the open seat on the Supreme Court, we immediately witnessed an explosion of speculation about what this could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade. Most pro-life activists cheered Barrett’s nomination because they assumed that she would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade if given the opportunity, and many pro-choice activists warned that America would soon resemble “the Handmaid’s Tale” if Barrett was confirmed. But as President Trump explained during the first presidential debate, nobody actually knows how she would rule on Roe v. Wade, and it is very unlikely that she will give a direct answer to any questions about Roe v. Wade that she is asked during the Senate hearings that are currently taking place.
I truly wish that Barrett would tell us how she would rule, because it is of the utmost importance.
Roe v. Wade has been very hotly debated ever since it was decided in 1973, and Barrett’s nomination has put abortion back into the national spotlight. On Monday, a brand new ABC News/Washington Post poll was released which shows that Americans overwhelmingly want the Supreme Court to uphold Roe v. Wade…
In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, 62 percent of those surveyed said the highest court needs to uphold Roe v. Wade – the landmark Supreme Court case used as the basis of abortion law in the U.S. On the other hand, 24 percent of American voters say they want the case overturned, which would effectively end abortion rights as they’re known.
I don’t know if I have the words to describe how deeply saddened I am by those numbers.
By more than a two to one margin, Americans say that they support Roe v. Wade, and other surveys have come up with similar numbers.
For example, just consider this poll which was taken in September…
A majority of American adults say they do not support the Supreme Court completely overturning Roe v. Wade, according to new data from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll. Sixty-six percent of adults say that they don’t believe the Supreme Court should completely overturn the decision that established a woman’s right to an abortion in at least the first three months of a pregnancy. Twenty-nine percent of adults say they do want the Court to completely overturn the ruling.
The numbers are slightly different, but once again we see another survey in which Americans favor keeping Roe v. Wade by more than a two to one margin.
And as ABC News has pointed out, other polls that have been conducted in recent years have also shown that Americans overwhelmingly want Roe v. Wade kept in place…
Support for Roe is similar to results in previous ABC/Post polls, from 2005 to 2010, asking how new members of the court should vote on the issue; anywhere from 59% to 65%, averaging 62%, said Roe should be upheld. An average of 34% said Roe should be overturned, more than in this poll, and fewer, an average of 5%, had no opinion.
I know that a lot of people out there have been hoping for a nationwide awakening that would cause a seismic shift in our national moral values, but these numbers tell us that it is simply not happening.
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In this latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, even 44 percent of “evangelical Protestants” want Roe v. Wade to remain the law of the land…
Among groups, 66% of women say Roe should be upheld, as do 58% of men. Support for upholding the law peaks among people with postgraduate degrees (83%), Democrats and liberals (both 81%), moderates (75%) and those with no religious preference (also 75%). This drops to lows among conservatives (37%), Republicans (40%), evangelical Protestants (44%) and people with no more than a high school education (51%).
But many conservatives are hoping that Roe v. Wade could be overturned anyway if we can get enough conservative justices on to the Supreme Court.
Unfortunately, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh have already shown that they are definitely not “conservative”, and I do not believe that either one of them would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.
As for Amy Coney Barrett, the truth is that we don’t know how she would vote, and President Trump made that abundantly clear during the first presidential debate…
“Roe v. Wade. That’s also at stake right now,” Joe Biden said during the presidential debate, arguing Judge Amy Coney Barrett should not be confirmed to fill the seat vacated after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election. He said abortion rights granted by Roe v. Wade were “also on the ballot.” “Why is it on the ballot? It’s not on the ballot,” Trump retorted. “There’s nothing happening there.” “You don’t know what her views are,” Trump said of Barrett.
However, I do believe that Amy Coney Barrett has personal pro-life beliefs, and this is reflected in her past actions…
During her years as a law professor, Barrett was a member of the University of Notre Dame’s “Faculty for Life,” and in 2006 she signed an anti-abortion letter that accompanied a newspaper ad calling for “an end to the barbaric legacy of Roe v. Wade.” But she has said she would keep her personal views out of the courtroom.
But from a legal perspective, she has never been willing to publicly say that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, and she has never been willing to publicly commit to overturning it.
And in her opening statement for the current Senate hearings, she stated that it is her philosophy that the courts “are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in our public life”…
‘But courts are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in our public life. The policy decisions and value judgments of government must be made by the political branches elected by and accountable to the People.’
So the truth is that it is very unclear how she would rule on Roe v. Wade if she is confirmed.
Sadly, what is clear is that the vast majority of the American people want Roe v. Wade to remain in place, and most states would continue to keep abortion legal even if Roe v. Wade was overturned someday.
Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the future of our society. If we continue on the path that we are on, there is no future for America, and right now there is absolutely no indication that we will be changing course any time soon.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--On Fiscal Crisis, Savings, Debt And Gold: When Ancient Greece Experienced Their Own “2020”

For the powerful city-state of Athens in ancient Greece , the year 430 BC was one of the most tumultuous and dramatic in its history .
Prior to 430 BC , Athens had been at the pinnacle of stability and power for decades .
But in the course of that single year , the city was invaded by Sparta at the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War ; Athenian officials essentially impeached their leader , Pericles , and put him on trial ; and a deadly plague killed off up to 20 % of the population .
In short , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like 2020 does for us .
But despite all the hardship , Athens still managed to prevail .
And that was in no small part due to the government ’ s enormous treasury surplus .
Historical records from that era show that Athens had 9,700 talents of cash reserves in its treasury .
Now , a ‘ talent ’ was an ancient unit of measurement for gold and silver which was equal to roughly 26 kilograms .
Given city-state ’ s population in the 5th century BC , that works out to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s money ) for every single Athenian citizen at the time .
Bottom line , ancient Athens had plenty of cash tucked away for a rainy day .
So when the mother of all storms came , they had the savings to survive .
History shows that such fiscal responsibility is EXTREMELY unusual .
Most countries and governments tend to increase their spending and decrease their savings when they reach the heights of their power .
They believe that their power and wealth will last forever .
So they start racking up huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future will look exactly like the present .
This is a completely irresponsible practice , but it ’ s incredibly common .
And we see it everywhere today .
2020 has obviously been an inconceivable year… and it ’ s most likely going to become even crazier before it ’ s over .
But even before 2020 , most of the ‘ wealthiest ’ nations in the world were posting huge budget deficits at a time when everything was still normal and OK .
I wrote about this extensively over the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the US government was losing $ 1 trillion per year during an economic boom , how bad would the results be during troubled times ?
Well , we have our answer .
Over the past six months alone , the US federal debt has increased by more than $ 3.5 trillion .
Total federal debt now stands at more than $ 27 trillion– more than $ 80,000 for every man , woman , and child in the Land of the Free .
So while ancient Athens met its crisis with a surplus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US has a deficit of $ 80,000 per citizen .
And remember– the entire size of the US economy is $ 19.5 trillion according to the federal government ’ s latest data .
So the debt is now a whopping 138 % of GDP .
That smashes the previous record of 118 % set during World War II .
And of course the figure gets worse every year .
In a good year , the economy grows by 2 % to 3 % .
But the national debt has been growing at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this takes into account other unfunded liabilities– like the fact that Social Security ’ s trust funds will be fully depleted within the next 10 years .
Replenishing them will cost tens of trillions more .
This is clearly not sustainable .
But any sense of fiscal prudence has been thrown out the window because of a virus .
There are vast factions of scientists , reporters , and politicians who still want to shut businesses down , and then send everyone free money that the government finances by going deeper into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very supportive of this idea .
In order to facilitate this bonanza of free money , the Fed has printed trillions of dollars over the past six months and slashed interest rates back down to zero .
They ’ ve also committed to keeping rates low for years to come , and just last week they warned of ‘ tragic ’ consequences to the economy if the government doesn ’ t hand out trillions of dollars more in free money ( and go deeper into debt in the process ) .
Who knew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Ancient Athenians worked hard , saved money , and set aside an enormous surplus for a rainy day .
These days apparently you just have to print money and go into debt in order to prosper .
This is a huge reason why I believe that gold still has long-term potential , just as it did back in ancient Greece .
Gold has enormous value in times of uncertainty… and we ’ re definitely living through that now .
Who ’ s going to win the election ?
What impact will that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Will a subsequent outbreak of Covid ( or a new virus in the future ) cause a stock market panic ?
Will there be more rioting and chaos in the streets ?
These questions barely scratch the surface of what we don ’ t know .
But it ’ s clear there are a lot of high-impact risks on the table .
Gold has traditionally been a great insurance policy against that sort of extreme uncertainty .
But even more importantly , it ’ s a safe haven during times of appalling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precisely what we have now .
They ’ re going to vastly expand the debt and print money for years to come .
They ’ ve already told us as much .
And that ’ s what makes gold such an attractive , long-term asset .
Short-term , the gold price is anyone ’ s guess .
Gold has already had an incredible run this year , and it ’ s possible we might see a price decline .
No one knows .
But if you ’ re thinking about the world long-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold as part of a robust Plan B .
On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years .
That ’ s why we published a new , 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here .

by Simon Black of Sovereign Man
For the powerful city-state of Athens in ancient Greece, the year 430 BC was one of the most tumultuous and dramatic in its history.
Prior to 430 BC, Athens had been at the pinnacle of stability and power for decades.
But in the course of that single year, the city was invaded by Sparta at the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War; Athenian officials essentially impeached their leader, Pericles, and put him on trial; and a deadly plague killed off up to 20% of the population.
In short, for ancient Athenians, 430 BC probably felt like 2020 does for us.
But despite all the hardship, Athens still managed to prevail. And that was in no small part due to the government’s enormous treasury surplus.
Historical records from that era show that Athens had 9,700 talents of cash reserves in its treasury.
Now, a ‘talent’ was an ancient unit of measurement for gold and silver which was equal to roughly 26 kilograms.
Given city-state’s population in the 5th century BC, that works out to be nearly $25,000 (in today’s money) for every single Athenian citizen at the time.
Bottom line, ancient Athens had plenty of cash tucked away for a rainy day. So when the mother of all storms came, they had the savings to survive.
History shows that such fiscal responsibility is EXTREMELY unusual. Most countries and governments tend to increase their spending and decrease their savings when they reach the heights of their power.
They believe that their power and wealth will last forever. So they start racking up huge debts and deficits in a belief that the future will look exactly like the present.
This is a completely irresponsible practice, but it’s incredibly common. And we see it everywhere today.
2020 has obviously been an inconceivable year… and it’s most likely going to become even crazier before it’s over.
But even before 2020, most of the ‘wealthiest’ nations in the world were posting huge budget deficits at a time when everything was still normal and OK.
I wrote about this extensively over the past few years, pointing out that, if the US government was losing $1 trillion per year during an economic boom, how bad would the results be during troubled times?
Well, we have our answer.
Over the past six months alone, the US federal debt has increased by more than $3.5 trillion. Total federal debt now stands at more than $27 trillion– more than $80,000 for every man, woman, and child in the Land of the Free.
So while ancient Athens met its crisis with a surplus of nearly $25,000 per citizen, the US has a deficit of $80,000 per citizen.
And remember– the entire size of the US economy is $19.5 trillion according to the federal government’s latest data.
So the debt is now a whopping 138% of GDP. That smashes the previous record of 118% set during World War II.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And of course the figure gets worse every year. In a good year, the economy grows by 2% to 3%. But the national debt has been growing at more than twice that rate.
None of this takes into account other unfunded liabilities– like the fact that Social Security’s trust funds will be fully depleted within the next 10 years. Replenishing them will cost tens of trillions more.
This is clearly not sustainable. But any sense of fiscal prudence has been thrown out the window because of a virus.
There are vast factions of scientists, reporters, and politicians who still want to shut businesses down, and then send everyone free money that the government finances by going deeper into debt.
The Federal Reserve has been very supportive of this idea.
In order to facilitate this bonanza of free money, the Fed has printed trillions of dollars over the past six months and slashed interest rates back down to zero.
They’ve also committed to keeping rates low for years to come, and just last week they warned of ‘tragic’ consequences to the economy if the government doesn’t hand out trillions of dollars more in free money (and go deeper into debt in the process).
Who knew it was so easy to be prosperous? Ancient Athenians worked hard, saved money, and set aside an enormous surplus for a rainy day.
These days apparently you just have to print money and go into debt in order to prosper.
This is a huge reason why I believe that gold still has long-term potential, just as it did back in ancient Greece.
Gold has enormous value in times of uncertainty… and we’re definitely living through that now.
Who’s going to win the election? What impact will that have on the economy and public finances? Will a subsequent outbreak of Covid (or a new virus in the future) cause a stock market panic? Will there be more rioting and chaos in the streets?
These questions barely scratch the surface of what we don’t know. But it’s clear there are a lot of high-impact risks on the table.
Gold has traditionally been a great insurance policy against that sort of extreme uncertainty.
But even more importantly, it’s a safe haven during times of appalling fiscal irresponsibility. And that’s precisely what we have now.
They’re going to vastly expand the debt and print money for years to come. They’ve already told us as much.
And that’s what makes gold such an attractive, long-term asset.
Short-term, the gold price is anyone’s guess. Gold has already had an incredible run this year, and it’s possible we might see a price decline. No one knows.
But if you’re thinking about the world long-term, it’s definitely worth considering gold as part of a robust Plan B.
On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years.
That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.