investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Ron Paul: Governments Are Hyping Up Coronavirus ‘Hoax’ As An Excuse To Grab More Of Our Freedoms

Ron Paul , Institute for Peace and Prosperity , Released on 3/16/20 Governments love crises because when the people are fearful they are more willing to give up freedoms for promises that the government will take care of them .
After 9/11 , for example , Americans accepted the near-total destruction of their civil liberties in the PATRIOT Act ’ s hollow promises of security .
It is ironic to see the same Democrats who tried to impeach President Trump last month for abuse of power demanding that the Administration grab more power and authority in the name of fighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less than 100 Americans .
Declaring a pandemic emergency on Friday , President Trump now claims the power to quarantine individuals suspected of being infected by the virus and , as Politico writes , “ stop and seize any plane , train or automobile to stymie the spread of contagious disease.
” He can even call out the military to cordon off a US city or state .
State and local authoritarians love panic as well .
The mayor of Champaign , Illinois , signed an executive order declaring the power to ban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut off gas , water , or electricity to any citizen .
The governor of Ohio just essentially closed his entire state .
The chief fearmonger of the Trump Administration is without a doubt Anthony Fauci , head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health .
Fauci is all over the media , serving up outright falsehoods to stir up even more panic .
He testified to Congress that the death rate for the coronavirus is ten times that of the seasonal flu , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Face the Nation , Fauci did his best to further damage an already tanking economy by stating , “ Right now , personally , myself , I wouldn ’ t go to a restaurant.
” He has pushed for closing the entire country down for 14 days .
Over what ?
A virus that has thus far killed just over 5,000 worldwide and less than 100 in the United States ?
By contrast , tuberculosis , an old disease not much discussed these days , killed nearly 1.6 million people in 2017 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
If anything , what people like Fauci and the other fearmongers are demanding will likely make the disease worse .
The martial law they dream about will leave people hunkered down inside their homes instead of going outdoors or to the beach where the sunshine and fresh air would help boost immunity .
The panic produced by these fearmongers is likely helping spread the disease , as massive crowds rush into Walmart and Costco for that last roll of toilet paper .
The madness over the coronavirus is not limited to politicians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the neoconservative Atlantic Council wrote an editorial this week urging NATO to pass an Article 5 declaration of war against the COVID-19 virus !
Are they going to send in tanks and drones to wipe out these microscopic enemies ?
People should ask themselves whether this coronavirus “ pandemic ” could be a big hoax , with the actual danger of the disease massively exaggerated by those who seek to profit – financially or politically – from the ensuing panic .
That is not to say the disease is harmless .
Without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Those in vulnerable categories should take precautions to limit their risk of exposure .
But we have seen this movie before .
Government over-hypes a threat as an excuse to grab more of our freedoms .
When the “ threat ” is over , however , they never give us our freedoms back .

Ron Paul, Institute for Peace and Prosperity, Released on 3/16/20
Governments love crises because when the people are fearful they are more willing to give up freedoms for promises that the government will take care of them. After 9/11, for example, Americans accepted the near-total destruction of their civil liberties in the PATRIOT Act’s hollow promises of security.
It is ironic to see the same Democrats who tried to impeach President Trump last month for abuse of power demanding that the Administration grab more power and authority in the name of fighting a virus that thus far has killed less than 100 Americans.
Declaring a pandemic emergency on Friday, President Trump now claims the power to quarantine individuals suspected of being infected by the virus and, as Politico writes, “stop and seize any plane, train or automobile to stymie the spread of contagious disease.” He can even call out the military to cordon off a US city or state.
State and local authoritarians love panic as well. The mayor of Champaign, Illinois, signed an executive order declaring the power to ban the sale of guns and alcohol and cut off gas, water, or electricity to any citizen. The governor of Ohio just essentially closed his entire state.
The chief fearmonger of the Trump Administration is without a doubt Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health. Fauci is all over the media, serving up outright falsehoods to stir up even more panic. He testified to Congress that the death rate for the coronavirus is ten times that of the seasonal flu, a claim without any scientific basis.
On Face the Nation, Fauci did his best to further damage an already tanking economy by stating, “Right now, personally, myself, I wouldn’t go to a restaurant.” He has pushed for closing the entire country down for 14 days.
Over what? A virus that has thus far killed just over 5,000 worldwide and less than 100 in the United States? By contrast, tuberculosis, an old disease not much discussed these days, killed nearly 1.6 million people in 2017. Where’s the panic over this?
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If anything, what people like Fauci and the other fearmongers are demanding will likely make the disease worse. The martial law they dream about will leave people hunkered down inside their homes instead of going outdoors or to the beach where the sunshine and fresh air would help boost immunity. The panic produced by these fearmongers is likely helping spread the disease, as massive crowds rush into Walmart and Costco for that last roll of toilet paper.
The madness over the coronavirus is not limited to politicians and the medical community. The head of the neoconservative Atlantic Council wrote an editorial this week urging NATO to pass an Article 5 declaration of war against the COVID-19 virus! Are they going to send in tanks and drones to wipe out these microscopic enemies?
People should ask themselves whether this coronavirus “pandemic” could be a big hoax, with the actual danger of the disease massively exaggerated by those who seek to profit – financially or politically – from the ensuing panic.
That is not to say the disease is harmless. Without question people will die from coronavirus. Those in vulnerable categories should take precautions to limit their risk of exposure. But we have seen this movie before. Government over-hypes a threat as an excuse to grab more of our freedoms. When the “threat” is over, however, they never give us our freedoms back.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Good news! First shipment of masks and test kits donated by Jack Ma arrive from China

The first shipment of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma ’ s donation of 1 million masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the United States arrived in the US on Monday morning .
The supplies , which will be distributed by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) , were purchased in China since its factories have gradually resumed production .
The shipment of a second batch will depend on availability , said a spokesman at the Jack Ma Foundation .
The United States is facing a shortage of kits for diagnosing the deadly contagion , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal government for its slowness in preparedness and response .
Public health officials have rebuked US President Donald Trump for playing down the seriousness of the rapidly spreading illness .
The gift by Ma , who stepped down as the Chinese e-commerce giant ’ s chairman last year , is the first by Chinese entrepreneurs to the United States amid the finger-pointing between officials and politicians from the two powers .
His foundation has also donated medical supplies to Europe , Japan , South Korea , Iran and 54 African countries , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million to help develop a coronavirus vaccine .

The first shipment of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma’s donation of 1 million masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the United States arrived in the US on Monday morning.
The supplies, which will be distributed by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), were purchased in China since its factories have gradually resumed production. The shipment of a second batch will depend on availability, said a spokesman at the Jack Ma Foundation.
The United States is facing a shortage of kits for diagnosing the deadly contagion, which has led to widespread criticism of the federal government for its slowness in preparedness and response. Public health officials have rebuked US President Donald Trump for playing down the seriousness of the rapidly spreading illness.
The gift by Ma, who stepped down as the Chinese e-commerce giant’s chairman last year, is the first by Chinese entrepreneurs to the United States amid the finger-pointing between officials and politicians from the two powers.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
His foundation has also donated medical supplies to Europe, Japan, South Korea, Iran and 54 African countries, and it has also pledged US$14 million to help develop a coronavirus vaccine.
www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3075469/coronavirus-masks-and-test-kits-donated-jack-ma-arrive-us


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Worst Part Of The Pandemic Isn’t The Virus, It’s The Mass Panic Which Will Cause Economic Collapse

The worst is yet to come , the official in government keeps saying , and the media keeps repeating it , and the masses keep panicking further .
The biggest problem with this coronavirus pandemic is not the virus itself , but the reaction of the general public .
Not that long ago , we mentioned that more people would be bankrupted by the ridiculous amounts of panic than would die from this virus .
The truth is , that ’ s looking to be more true by the day .
We aren ’ t saying you shouldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of fear is doing damage to the economy and it may not recover for years .
If you went to a grocery store this weekend , you likely experienced at least empty shelves where toilet paper used to be stocked .
You may have even seen the frozen foods wiped out along with the chips and crackers .
People have been panicking as the mainstream media shoves the narrative that you ’ ll have to give up your freedom of movement and what little economic freedom you have left in order to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for that ?
Because that ’ s what you ’ ll need to prepare for in the coming weeks : an economic crisis , not a pandemic .
How To Best Prepare Yourself For The Coming Financial Crisis Unfortunately , toilet paper is literally gone in most places and it ’ s even tough to find online .
But if you prepared and have several extra rolls saved , you could use it to barter in an economic depression , and that could be priceless .
Instead , switch to a bidet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t cost much and you can install one right on your toilet giving you a powerful mountain of paper to barter with .
So many Americans have not even considered an alternative to toilet paper ( even baby wipes or paper towels ) to get them through a possible two-week lockdown .
Prepper Foods and Supplies to Survive Coronavirus Without Leaving the House If you have a septic system , a bidet could help immensely with not filling it up too saving you money in the long run .
If there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the grocery store , you ’ ll at least have the bidet .
It ’ s going to be a change for sure , and only you can decide if it ’ s worth it , but it ’ s a great solution .
You should also have an emergency fund in place .
Hopefully , you have 3-6 months worth of expenses saved up .
If not , it ’ s probably too late , unfortunately .
You should also have some emergency food stored , but most of you already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ food kits more quickly than toilet paper right now .
The mass panic is more worrisome than the actual virus , and preparations for social unrest ( be able to defend yourself and your preps ) and an economic meltdown wholly caused by the unnecessary panicking of the unprepared is , by far , a bigger concern .
If this is how people act over a few rolls of toilet paper , imagine an economic collapse caused by this same mentality when they can ’ t get any more TV dinners .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has all but ensured a major economic collapse .
It could be a well-thought-out plan by the elitists to make sure Trump is not reelected , but that ’ s purely speculation .
An economic collapse is highly likely and a much bigger problem than this virus .
And the collapse will be swift .

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
The worst is yet to come, the official in government keeps saying, and the media keeps repeating it, and the masses keep panicking further. The biggest problem with this coronavirus pandemic is not the virus itself, but the reaction of the general public.
Not that long ago, we mentioned that more people would be bankrupted by the ridiculous amounts of panic than would die from this virus. The truth is, that’s looking to be more true by the day. We aren’t saying you shouldn’t be prepared, however, the sheer amount of fear is doing damage to the economy and it may not recover for years.
If you went to a grocery store this weekend, you likely experienced at least empty shelves where toilet paper used to be stocked. You may have even seen the frozen foods wiped out along with the chips and crackers. People have been panicking as the mainstream media shoves the narrative that you’ll have to give up your freedom of movement and what little economic freedom you have left in order to contain this virus. Are you ready for that? Because that’s what you’ll need to prepare for in the coming weeks: an economic crisis, not a pandemic.
How To Best Prepare Yourself For The Coming Financial Crisis
Unfortunately, toilet paper is literally gone in most places and it’s even tough to find online. But if you prepared and have several extra rolls saved, you could use it to barter in an economic depression, and that could be priceless. Instead, switch to a bidet, and save your toilet paper. They don’t cost much and you can install one right on your toilet giving you a powerful mountain of paper to barter with. So many Americans have not even considered an alternative to toilet paper (even baby wipes or paper towels) to get them through a possible two-week lockdown.
Prepper Foods and Supplies to Survive Coronavirus Without Leaving the House
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you have a septic system, a bidet could help immensely with not filling it up too saving you money in the long run. If there’s never any toilet paper left in the grocery store, you’ll at least have the bidet. It’s going to be a change for sure, and only you can decide if it’s worth it, but it’s a great solution.
You should also have an emergency fund in place. Hopefully, you have 3-6 months worth of expenses saved up. If not, it’s probably too late, unfortunately. You should also have some emergency food stored, but most of you already know this. They are restocking emergency food kits more quickly than toilet paper right now.
The mass panic is more worrisome than the actual virus, and preparations for social unrest (be able to defend yourself and your preps) and an economic meltdown wholly caused by the unnecessary panicking of the unprepared is, by far, a bigger concern. If this is how people act over a few rolls of toilet paper, imagine an economic collapse caused by this same mentality when they can’t get any more TV dinners.
The media, which is inciting mass panic has all but ensured a major economic collapse. It could be a well-thought-out plan by the elitists to make sure Trump is not reelected, but that’s purely speculation.
An economic collapse is highly likely and a much bigger problem than this virus. And the collapse will be swift.
Keep calm, and prepare.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--An Italian hospital ran out of ICU valves. A local biz brought a 3D printer to the hospital, redesig

An Italian hospital ran out of ICU valves. A local biz brought a 3D printer to the hospital, redesigned & produced the valves in a few hours.—Socialized healthcare saved by private business

An Italian hospital ran out of ICU valves .
A local biz brought a 3D printer to the hospital , @ @ @ @ @ in a few hours .
“ At the time of writing , 10 patients are @ @ @ @ @ machine that uses a 3D printed valve.
” t.co/HjjdYKZvyS

An Italian hospital ran out of ICU valves. A local biz brought a 3D printer to the hospital, redesigned & produced the valves in a few hours.
“At the time of writing, 10 patients are accompanied in breathing by a machine that uses a 3D printed valve.”t.co/HjjdYKZvyS
— michal Naka (@michalnaka) March 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--It’s Time To Unveil The True Enemy Of The People, Shutdown, Messages Received

The [ DS ] /MSM believe that their event is going as a planned .
The patriots are have taking @ @ @ @ @ to silently arrest the power structure of the [ DS ] .
Darkness is coming @ @ @ @ @ people , this will allow the operation to proceed .
The patriots are in full @ @ @ @ @ to fear , nothing can stop what is coming , together we are strong .

The [DS]/MSM believe that their event is going as a planned. The patriots are have taking control and are using it to silently arrest the power structure of the [DS]. Darkness is coming, this will protect the people, this will allow the operation to proceed. The patriots are in full control, their is nothing to fear, nothing can stop what is coming, together we are strong.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--The media seems to be celebrating the quarantine measures…a little too much.

I keep reading various articles about the quarantine measures in Europe , particularly in Italy .
They seem to be @ @ @ @ @ , as a “ chance to celebrate life ” , and whatnot .
In every @ @ @ @ @ or the societal effects , they spell doom and gloom yet…they act like quarantine life @ @ @ @ @ embrace it .
Maybe it ’ s just me , but this is yet another @ @ @ @ @ It almost feels like lulling people into a false security of the idea of being @ @ @ @ @ an extended amount of time .
The people they interview in Italy are also , @ @ @ @ @ of their lives in quarantine and state that it ’ s the right/best thing to @ @ @ @ @ this ?
It just seems so…strange to make these fluff pieces on quarantine .

by SufficientHistorian6
I keep reading various articles about the quarantine measures in Europe, particularly in Italy. They seem to be spinning the lockdowns as positive, as a “chance to celebrate life”, and whatnot. In every other article about the virus or the societal effects, they spell doom and gloom yet…they act like quarantine life is perfect and we should embrace it. Maybe it’s just me, but this is yet another aspect that seems off.
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It almost feels like lulling people into a false security of the idea of being locked in one location for an extended amount of time. The people they interview in Italy are also, apparently, having the times of their lives in quarantine and state that it’s the right/best thing to do.
Any thoughts on this? It just seems so…strange to make these fluff pieces on quarantine.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--This is the PERFECT time to start being extra kind to people and offering help any chance you can.

WE can use this crisis to our own advantage .
Let ’ s demonstrate humanity and show that we ’ re capable of putting partisan/religious/racial differences aside .
This crisis could unite us .
I was at the store earlier and I noticed something .
Everybody was being extremely kind and helpful to one another .
I went in actually expecting everybody to be behaving like fucking animals .
Hogging items , pushing and shoving .
The opposite was true .
It hit me .
In times of crisis , we often ( not always ) naturally behave in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another .
I think perhaps , it ’ s because when things get serious and our cozy way of life is jeopardized , we all sort of Inherently realize , even if momentarily , how fake and meaningless this “ plantation ” we live on is .
All of things that divide us and separate us seem so trivial and unimportant .
Use this crisis as an opportunity to show kindness to other people .
Donate some supplies if you have extra .
Make a post on social media about how you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ store or deliver food/supplies .
Randomly smile at someone , strike up a conversation .
Apologize if you do something annoying or inconsiderate .
Because if there is a major catalyst on the way , when they pull that rug out from underneath us , just maybe we won ’ t scatter and panic like scared rats .
Maybe instead we ’ ll stand in solidarity and look out for each other .
Believe me , there is nothing more terrifying to the ruling class than that .

by xrangegod1
WE can use this crisis to our own advantage. Let’s demonstrate humanity and show that we’re capable of putting partisan/religious/racial differences aside. This crisis could unite us.
I was at the store earlier and I noticed something. Everybody was being extremely kind and helpful to one another.
I went in actually expecting everybody to be behaving like fucking animals. Hogging items, pushing and shoving. The opposite was true.
It hit me. In times of crisis, we often (not always) naturally behave in a more mature and civil manner toward one another.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I think perhaps, it’s because when things get serious and our cozy way of life is jeopardized, we all sort of Inherently realize, even if momentarily, how fake and meaningless this “plantation” we live on is. All of things that divide us and separate us seem so trivial and unimportant.
Use this crisis as an opportunity to show kindness to other people. Donate some supplies if you have extra. Make a post on social media about how you’re willing to give rides to the store or deliver food/supplies. Randomly smile at someone, strike up a conversation. Apologize if you do something annoying or inconsiderate.
Because if there is a major catalyst on the way, when they pull that rug out from underneath us, just maybe we won’t scatter and panic like scared rats. Maybe instead we’ll stand in solidarity and look out for each other.
Believe me, there is nothing more terrifying to the ruling class than that.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--This is a Manufactured Crisis in Order to Induce an Economic Reset

When the US dollar was decoupled from gold in 1971 , this was the beginning of a global ideological shift , an economic coup , over the means by which money would be created .
Almost all central banks at this time were brought under the Bank of International Settlements system , and the power of money creation was consolidated into the hands of private banks .
Publicly owned central banks , such as the Bank of Canada , would no longer be the primary lender to their respective federal governments , they would now borrow from private banks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ expanding markets , and technological innovation , new money needs to be created to match new value being created in an economy .
This new money would be created by private banks to expand the money supply .
When governments would borrow money to fund infrastructure or technological advancement or anything , they would be forced to have private banks contract bonds or treasuries which governments would purchase from private banks .
This is what caused a global ballooning of government debt beginning in 1971 , governments were no longer using a public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they were allowing private banks to create money and hold the majority of government debt obligations .
What we ’ ve seen post 2008 , quantitative easing , has been occurring broadly since 1971 , whereby private creation of money has been flooding markets in order to capture market share over real assets .
This has been steadily ramping up with each decade since bringing more deregulation .
Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve Chairman brought interest rates below 1 % in 2002 , this practically speaking was quantitative easing but was labelled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2007 asset bubble , as cheap debt propped up the stock market and securities market .
Now , really think about the effect of unregulated , undemocratic money creation .
Imagine an economy where the total money supply is $ 1000 , and imagine one person controls $ 500 of the total money supply , one person controls $ 250 , and many people control $ 1 .
Now suppose a new $ 500 is added to the money supply so that the new total supply becomes $ 1500 .
What happens to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the one person with $ 500 would see their control over the money supply drop from 50 % control to 33 % , a decrease of 16.7 % .
The person with $ 250 would see their control drop from 25 % to 16.6 % , a decrease of 8.4 % , and the people with $ 1 would see their control drop from 0.1 % to 0.06 % , a decrease of 40 % .
In this example we can see that inflation always punishes the poorest members of society the hardest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the poorest during inflation .
Now suppose that the new $ 500 is not created in some vacuum and left untouched by the existing market participants .
Imagine the new $ 500 is created by the one person who already has $ 500 , and they decide to give themselves $ 400 of the new $ 500 , and they give $ 100 to the person with $ 250 , and nothing to the people with $ 1 .
So now the economy has grown from $ 1000 total supply to $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 500 now has $ 900 , the person with $ 250 now has $ 350 , and the people with $ 1 still have $ 1 .
The new distributions would see the person with $ 900 increase their control over the money supply from 50 % to 60 % , the person with $ 350 would see a decrease in their control from 25 % to 23.3 % , and the people who still only have $ 1 would still see a decrease from 0.1 % to 0.06 % .
Simply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the richest in this example gain 10 % control of the money supply , the ‘ middle class ’ person barely notices their 1.7 % decrease , and the poorest are obliterated by their 40 % loss in value .
This thought experiment demonstrates two powerful lessons of inflation .
First , it shows that in its proper context inflation is in reality a transfer of value from the poor to the creators of money .
When a commercial bank is earning a profit via inflation , they ’ re literally taking value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from this monetary expansion , which is almost always the poorest people , statistically .
This reconceptualization shows that bank profits from inflation are never earned , only made possible by this ‘ loan ’ , theft , of the poor .
And finally , this example shows the true insidious nature of inflation , as on the surface nothing happened to the poorest , they still have their $ 1 .
The paper in their hand didn ’ t change , nor did the number in their bank account .
Yet through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 60 cents .
And if these market participants lived in a highly propagandized society where lies dominate the mainstream media , reality is obfuscated or omitted in educational institutions , they will never know their $ 1 became 60 cents .
So when you read in the news that the Federal Reserve injected $ 1.5 trillion into financial markets , they literally created $ 1.5 trillion .
But this didn ’ t come out of thin air , as people commonly say about the fiat/debt system .
This is so so important .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the poor .
When the Federal Reserve creates money , they ’ re stealing .
When any private bank creates money , they ’ re stealing .
Now , google the S & P 500 and look at the graph on the maximum timeframe .
Do the same for the DOW .
Think about how home prices have gone from $ 14,000 for a modest house in the 60s to $ 700,000 for the same house today .
We all got poor because of hyperinflation .
Here ’ s the conspiracy : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s not in the financial elite ’ s interest ( no pun ) .
Hyperinflation captured by the powerful is the means of mass enslavement .
It keeps the poor , poor .
It keeps the poor in debt .
The problem now , is that inflation is getting out of control and it ’ s going to ruin the economy .
They got too greedy .
Raising interest rates would cause massive defaults .
So the plan is to introduce negative interest rates .
They ’ re going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as low as possible , bring consumer mortgage rates to 0 % and try to remove money from the system .
But mortgagees even though they ’ ll have no interest payments , they ’ ll have a $ 500,000 mortgage on a house that will be valued at $ 200,000 .
For people not in a dire debt situation , their bank accounts will carry a negative interest rate .
We ’ re going to be charged to keep money in a bank account .
The economic crisis will be blamed on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are people not spending ?
because of mass economic shutdown due to a pandemic ? )
and negative rates will be justified as a way to induce spending .
However , all of this is a further means by the financial elite to consolidate power .
A prolonged economic shutdown will wreck the lower and middle class and leave everyone broke while the elite dive in like vultures with their freshly minted money to buy up the whole world .
Our only hope to stop this is to wake up to the debt/ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further here .
Edit : Appreciate the silver , but don ’ t give reddit money , they don ’ t deserve it .
Also , the users saying my math is wrong are switching the context of what I ’ m talking about .
I ’ m speaking of the absolute values over market share , there ’ s no denying math sorry , and apparently 90 % of the users here can understand that perfectly .
$ 1500 total supply .
$ 500 guy gets $ 400 more for $ 900 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of $ 1500 ; $ 1= 0.06 % of $ 1500 .
10 % gain for the rich .
40 % loss for the poor .
Take your shilling elsewhere .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by RussellHustle
When the US dollar was decoupled from gold in 1971, this was the beginning of a global ideological shift, an economic coup, over the means by which money would be created. Almost all central banks at this time were brought under the Bank of International Settlements system, and the power of money creation was consolidated into the hands of private banks. Publicly owned central banks, such as the Bank of Canada, would no longer be the primary lender to their respective federal governments, they would now borrow from private banks.
However, due to growing populations, expanding markets, and technological innovation, new money needs to be created to match new value being created in an economy. This new money would be created by private banks to expand the money supply. When governments would borrow money to fund infrastructure or technological advancement or anything, they would be forced to have private banks contract bonds or treasuries which governments would purchase from private banks. This is what caused a global ballooning of government debt beginning in 1971, governments were no longer using a public central bank to create their own money, they were allowing private banks to create money and hold the majority of government debt obligations.
What we’ve seen post 2008, quantitative easing, has been occurring broadly since 1971, whereby private creation of money has been flooding markets in order to capture market share over real assets. This has been steadily ramping up with each decade since bringing more deregulation. Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve Chairman brought interest rates below 1% in 2002, this practically speaking was quantitative easing but was labelled as such, this move caused the 2007 asset bubble, as cheap debt propped up the stock market and securities market.
Now, really think about the effect of unregulated, undemocratic money creation. Imagine an economy where the total money supply is $1000, and imagine one person controls $500 of the total money supply, one person controls $250, and many people control $1. Now suppose a new $500 is added to the money supply so that the new total supply becomes $1500. What happens to all the market participants? Well, the one person with $500 would see their control over the money supply drop from 50% control to 33%, a decrease of 16.7%. The person with $250 would see their control drop from 25% to 16.6%, a decrease of 8.4%, and the people with $1 would see their control drop from 0.1% to 0.06%, a decrease of 40%. In this example we can see that inflation always punishes the poorest members of society the hardest. The richest will never lose more than the poorest during inflation.
Now suppose that the new $500 is not created in some vacuum and left untouched by the existing market participants. Imagine the new $500 is created by the one person who already has $500, and they decide to give themselves $400 of the new $500, and they give $100 to the person with $250, and nothing to the people with $1. So now the economy has grown from $1000 total supply to $1500 total supply. The person with $500 now has $900, the person with $250 now has $350, and the people with $1 still have $1. The new distributions would see the person with $900 increase their control over the money supply from 50% to 60%, the person with $350 would see a decrease in their control from 25% to 23.3%, and the people who still only have $1 would still see a decrease from 0.1% to 0.06%.
Simply through inflation control by the powerful, the richest in this example gain 10% control of the money supply, the ‘middle class’ person barely notices their 1.7% decrease, and the poorest are obliterated by their 40% loss in value. This thought experiment demonstrates two powerful lessons of inflation. First, it shows that in its proper context inflation is in reality a transfer of value from the poor to the creators of money. When a commercial bank is earning a profit via inflation, they’re literally taking value from anyone that isn’t benefiting from this monetary expansion, which is almost always the poorest people, statistically. This reconceptualization shows that bank profits from inflation are never earned, only made possible by this ‘loan’, theft, of the poor. And finally, this example shows the true insidious nature of inflation, as on the surface nothing happened to the poorest, they still have their $1. The paper in their hand didn’t change, nor did the number in their bank account. Yet through this alchemical process their $1 became 60 cents. And if these market participants lived in a highly propagandized society where lies dominate the mainstream media, reality is obfuscated or omitted in educational institutions, they will never know their $1 became 60 cents.
So when you read in the news that the Federal Reserve injected $1.5 trillion into financial markets, they literally created $1.5 trillion. But this didn’t come out of thin air, as people commonly say about the fiat/debt system. This is so so important. It came from us. It came from the poor. When the Federal Reserve creates money, they’re stealing. When any private bank creates money, they’re stealing.
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Now, google the S&P 500 and look at the graph on the maximum timeframe. Do the same for the DOW. Think about how home prices have gone from $14,000 for a modest house in the 60s to $700,000 for the same house today. We all got poor because of hyperinflation.
Here’s the conspiracy: they’ll never accurately report hyperinflation. It’s not in the financial elite’s interest (no pun). Hyperinflation captured by the powerful is the means of mass enslavement. It keeps the poor, poor. It keeps the poor in debt.
The problem now, is that inflation is getting out of control and it’s going to ruin the economy. They got too greedy. Raising interest rates would cause massive defaults. So the plan is to introduce negative interest rates. They’re going to suppress prices and bring all asset prices as low as possible, bring consumer mortgage rates to 0% and try to remove money from the system. But mortgagees even though they’ll have no interest payments, they’ll have a $500,000 mortgage on a house that will be valued at $200,000.
For people not in a dire debt situation, their bank accounts will carry a negative interest rate. We’re going to be charged to keep money in a bank account. The economic crisis will be blamed on a lack of spending (hmmm why are people not spending? because of mass economic shutdown due to a pandemic?) and negative rates will be justified as a way to induce spending. However, all of this is a further means by the financial elite to consolidate power. A prolonged economic shutdown will wreck the lower and middle class and leave everyone broke while the elite dive in like vultures with their freshly minted money to buy up the whole world.
Our only hope to stop this is to wake up to the debt/ money creation system. You can read further here.
Edit: Appreciate the silver, but don’t give reddit money, they don’t deserve it.
Also, the users saying my math is wrong are switching the context of what I’m talking about. I’m speaking of the absolute values over market share, there’s no denying math sorry, and apparently 90% of the users here can understand that perfectly. $1500 total supply. $500 guy gets $400 more for $900 total. $900 = 60% of $1500; $1= 0.06% of $1500. 10% gain for the rich. 40% loss for the poor. Take your shilling elsewhere.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Some actual Tesla DD for you all (phone call with Tesla rep)

I understand that the market is in shambles and that we are all to busy printing money on SPY PUTS , but I thought I would return to our regularly scheduled programming for a bit .
Just two weeks ago I ordered a Model Y , fully expecting to wait until the fall because of the huge number of pre-orders .
Well… to my surprise I got a phone call less than a week later telling me that my vehicle was ready for delivery ( I DON ’ T live in Cali ) .
That math made no sense to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sleuths show that they ’ ve only made AT MOST a few thousand cars .
Well… I get another call today from my handler to discuss specifics .
I asked him/her how it was possible that I could be getting a car when I JUST ordered mine .
S/he let out a big sigh and said that they have ( a ) had massive order cancellations “ due to what ’ s going on right now ” and ( b ) most of the people who ordered the cars are stuck in other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t think the Y would be in production until at least then ) .
So , Tesla gets a car to production early .
Oops , the global economy collapses , and none of your rabid fans can get out of their other leases until 6-9 months from now .
Good fucking luck .
Does this mean Tesla is doomed in the long term ?
Absolutely not .
If anything , there will be pent up demand and they will sell shittons at a later date ( and have a great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are going to be BAD .
TL ; DR Beer virus + ahead-of-schedule production = no one wants Model Y ’ s for at least the next 6 months .
What do ?
: Personally I think Tesla ’ s quarterly is going to be… .
horrible .
Like , even worse than expected with COVID priced in .
Thus , puts wayyy OTM after their quarterly are probably going to moon .
EDIT : I forgot to mention that s/he said that I would likely be the first delivery in my city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 cities in the USA ( and crawling with teslas ) .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by alleycatalpa
I understand that the market is in shambles and that we are all to busy printing money on SPY PUTS, but I thought I would return to our regularly scheduled programming for a bit.
Just two weeks ago I ordered a Model Y, fully expecting to wait until the fall because of the huge number of pre-orders.
Well… to my surprise I got a phone call less than a week later telling me that my vehicle was ready for delivery (I DON’T live in Cali).
That math made no sense to me, as all of the Tesla sleuths show that they’ve only made AT MOST a few thousand cars.
Well… I get another call today from my handler to discuss specifics. I asked him/her how it was possible that I could be getting a car when I JUST ordered mine. S/he let out a big sigh and said that they have (a) had massive order cancellations “due to what’s going on right now” and (b) most of the people who ordered the cars are stuck in other leases until the fall (because they didn’t think the Y would be in production until at least then).
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So, Tesla gets a car to production early. Oops, the global economy collapses, and none of your rabid fans can get out of their other leases until 6-9 months from now. Good fucking luck.
Does this mean Tesla is doomed in the long term? Absolutely not. If anything, there will be pent up demand and they will sell shittons at a later date (and have a great quarter). But short term things are going to be BAD.
TL;DR Beer virus + ahead-of-schedule production = no one wants Model Y’s for at least the next 6 months.
What do?: Personally I think Tesla’s quarterly is going to be…. horrible. Like, even worse than expected with COVID priced in. Thus, puts wayyy OTM after their quarterly are probably going to moon.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that s/he said that I would likely be the first delivery in my city, which is one of the top 5 cities in the USA (and crawling with teslas).
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!? Read title of article then last sentence in paragraph!

ARE YOU KIDDING ME !
?
!
?
Read title of article then last sentence in paragraph !
!
I @ @ @ @ @ going to use this collapse to bring on the GOV BACKED DIGITAL CURRENCY !
!
@

ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!? Read title of article then last sentence in paragraph!! I had a feeling they were going to use this collapse to bring on the GOV BACKED DIGITAL CURRENCY!! 🤬👎👇
(Hope you’re ready for negative interest rates on bank deposits) pic.twitter.com/9YyZoDwIG0
— George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) March 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Insider Purchasing is Going Crazy due to Coronavirus

Due to the coronavirus , a ton of executives are participating in unusual compensation/purchasing activity .
So I have begun scraping the SEC website to see which executives are purchasing , selling , or being awarded stock for no known reason except that the stock price is extra low and they may just be buying their stock at a discount ( or selling it before it crashes further ) .
Obviously , we don ’ t know how long the coronavirus may keep the market down , but this can help us see which executives believe their stock will rebound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to decline .
*I can ’ t post links or images in this subreddit , but hopefully they at least allow the Form 4 links so you can go look at the activity for yourselves* Taking a look at the Form 4 activity below , we can see a ton of purchasing activity over the last 10 days with some of the purchases being quite large .
Taking a look at the individual Form 4s , we can see that they don ’ t mention that the purchases are for any form of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ directors and executives are just looking to get some stock on the cheap .
Taking a look at the Form 4 activity , we can see a few purchases made by the executives about 5 or 6 days ago .
While only 3 executives made purchases and the amounts purchased aren ’ t massive , they were made by their 3 highest-ranking executives who almost never make open market purchases .
Taking a look at the Form 4s gives us no reason for the purchases .
It looks like these executives may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Taking a look at the Form 4s , we can see a few executives made some large purchases a few days ago .
While only 3 executives made purchases , they are very substantial purchases and were made by executives that very rarely/never make open market purchases like this .
Once again , we see that the Form 4 makes no mention of any reason for these stock purchases .
Taking a look at the Form 4s , we can see a bunch of purchases made a few days ago .
Taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchases made , we can see some pretty massive purchases being made by some very high-level directors and executives .
Digging into the Form 4s , we do see that some of these purchases are part of the executives ’ 401K plans .
However , these are still large purchases by the executives .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Connorvo
Due to the coronavirus, a ton of executives are participating in unusual compensation/purchasing activity. So I have begun scraping the SEC website to see which executives are purchasing, selling, or being awarded stock for no known reason except that the stock price is extra low and they may just be buying their stock at a discount (or selling it before it crashes further). Obviously, we don’t know how long the coronavirus may keep the market down, but this can help us see which executives believe their stock will rebound nicely and which believe it will continue to decline.
*I can’t post links or images in this subreddit, but hopefully they at least allow the Form 4 links so you can go look at the activity for yourselves*
1) RBB Bancorp – $RBB ($14.00) – Purchasing Activity
SEC FORM 4 FILING LINK -> www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=1499422&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0
From Yahoo Finance:
RBB Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Royal Business Bank that provides various banking products and services to the Chinese-American communities.
Taking a look at the Form 4 activity below, we can see a ton of purchasing activity over the last 10 days with some of the purchases being quite large.
Date Executive Name Title Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase 2020-03-13 Vincent Liu EVP P-Purchase $15.60 $56160.00 3.6K 71.2K 5% 2020-03-12 Yee Phong Thian CEO P-Purchase $14.50 $116000.00 8.0K 443.1K 2% 2020-03-11 Chuang I Lin Director P-Purchase $13.87 $41610.00 3.0K 24.5K 14% 2020-03-11 Jeffrey Yeh EVP P-Purchase $13.40 $6700.00 0.5K 52.9K 1% 2020-03-11 Raymond H Yu Director P-Purchase $13.48 $26960.00 2.0K 255.6K 1% 2020-03-10 James Kao Director P-Purchase $15.50 $759500.00 49.0K 401.9K 14% 2020-03-10 David Richard Morris EVP P-Purchase $14.00 $7000.00 0.5K 13.3K 4% 2020-03-06 Simon Pang EVP P-Purchase $15.85 $15850.00 1.0K 25.8K 4% 2020-03-06 Tsu Te Huang EVP P-Purchase $15.87 $47610.00 3.0K 218.3K 1% 2020-03-06 Wendell Chen Director P-Purchase $16.07 $16070.00 1.0K 79.2K 1% 2020-03-06 Peter M Chang Director P-Purchase $15.98 $159800.00 10.0K 535.7K 2%
Taking a look at the individual Form 4s, we can see that they don’t mention that the purchases are for any form of pre-arranged agreement. It looks like the directors and executives are just looking to get some stock on the cheap.
2) Goodrich Petroleum Corp – $GDP ($3.73) – Purchasing Activity
SEC FORM 4 FILING LINK -> www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=943861&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0
From Yahoo Finance:
Goodrich Petroleum Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. It primarily holds interests in the Haynesville Shale Trend in northwest Louisiana and East Texas; Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend located in southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana; and the Eagle Ford Shale Trend situated in South Texas
Taking a look at the Form 4 activity, we can see a few purchases made by the executives about 5 or 6 days ago. While only 3 executives made purchases and the amounts purchased aren’t massive, they were made by their 3 highest-ranking executives who almost never make open market purchases.
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Date Executive Name Title Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase 2020-03-13 Walter Goodrich CEO P-Purchase $3.45 $52613 15.3K 518.5K 3% 2020-03-12 Robert Turnham COO P-Purchase $4.23 $14805 3.5K 506.8K 1% 2020-03-11 Rober Barker CFO P-Purchase $3.64 $1820 0.5K 34.8K 1%
Taking a look at the Form 4s gives us no reason for the purchases. It looks like these executives may be looking to pick up some cheap stock.
3) Welbilt, Inc – $WBT ($6.82) – Purchasing Activity
SEC FORM 4 FILING LINK -> www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getowner&CIK=0001310250
From Yahoo Finance:
Welbilt, Inc., designs, manufactures, and supplies foodservice equipment for commercial foodservice market worldwide.
Taking a look at the Form 4s, we can see a few executives made some large purchases a few days ago. While only 3 executives made purchases, they are very substantial purchases and were made by executives that very rarely/never make open market purchases like this.
Date Executive Name Title Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase 2020-03-11 Jennifer Gudenkauf EVP P-Purchase $8.57 $45010 5.3K 11.1K 89% 2020-03-10 William Johnson CEO P-Purchase $9.89 $99800 10.1K 125.5K 9% 2020-03-10 Martin Agard CFO P-Purchase $9.86 $197200 20.0K 50.2K 66%
Once again, we see that the Form 4 makes no mention of any reason for these stock purchases.
4) Prosperity Bancshares Inc – $PB ($56.61) – Purchasing Activity
SEC FORM 4 FILING LINK -> www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=1068851&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0
From Yahoo Finance:
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. operates as bank holding company for the Prosperity Bank that provides retail and commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, and consumers.
Taking a look at the Form 4s, we can see a bunch of purchases made a few days ago. Taking a deeper look at some of the purchases made, we can see some pretty massive purchases being made by some very high-level directors and executives.
Date Executive Name Title Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase 2020-03-11 H E Timanus Chairman P-Purchase $51.00 $2550000 50.0K 171.9K 41% 2020-03-10 James Bouligny Director P-Purchase $50.00 $200000 4.0K 332.2K 1% 2020-03-10 Charlotte Rasche EVP P-Purchase $51.31 $102620 2.0K 33.2K 6% 2020-03-10 Asylbek Osmonov CFO P-Purchase $51.24 $15372 0.3K 6.5K 5% 2020-03-09 Edward Safady Vice Chairman P-Purchase $50.00 $250000 5.0K 30.6K 20% 2020-03-09 Kevin Hanigan COO P-Purchase $51.00 $255000 5.0K 165.8K 3%
Digging into the Form 4s, we do see that some of these purchases are part of the executives’ 401K plans. However, these are still large purchases by the executives.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Despite raising $5B from equity over a 9 month period, $TSLA bonds just puked up to an all-time high

Despite raising $5B from equity over a 9 month period, $TSLA bonds just puked up to an all-time high spread…

And before anybody points it out , yes , I know HY is blowing out everywhere , and here is @ @ @ @

And before anybody points it out, yes, I know HY is blowing out everywhere, and here is the CDS chart pic.twitter.com/NjgqMqK50k
— TeslaCharts (@TESLAcharts) March 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Out of the top five worst days in stock market history, two of those occurred within the last 4 days

Out of the top five worst days in stock market history, two of those occurred within the last 4 days.

NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 981.37 POINTS , OR 12.46 PERCENT , AT 6,893.51 DOW JONES UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 3,061.70 POINTS @ @ @ @ @ AT 20,123.92 S & P 500 UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 327.20 POINTS , OR 12.07 PERCENT @ @ @

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average#Largest_percentage_changes
NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 981.37 POINTS, OR 12.46 PERCENT, AT 6,893.51
DOW JONES UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 3,061.70 POINTS, OR 13.21 PERCENT, AT 20,123.92
S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 327.20 POINTS, OR 12.07 PERCENT, AT 2,383.82
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) March 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Contagious. Unobserved by many, most Aussie banks already lost 60% of their value!

Unobserved by many , most Aussie banks already lost 60 % of their value !
A historic housing bubble now @ @ @ @ @ .
These major institutions are now facing similar pressure to US banks in ’ 08 @ @

Contagious.
Unobserved by many, most Aussie banks already lost 60% of their value!
A historic housing bubble now in the process of bursting.
RBA panicking & $AUD looks like a falling knife.
These major institutions are now facing similar pressure to US banks in ’08. pic.twitter.com/InGDqaeWr1
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--EU Bond market creaking

EU Bond market creaking

No need to make this post long .
This one ’ s pretty obvious .
No way in hell do @ @ @ @ @ year right now ; but i wanted to see if the periphery was disconnecting from @ @ @ @ @ core ” ( and the UK cause why not ) Yep .
Betcha didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t either .
Seems we have another problem on our hands sometime these @ @ @ @ @ maybe even as early as tomorrow .
Wish we could keep it virus central but @ @ @ @ @ t the biggest oncoming problem anymore .
The authorities are at least starting to take @ @ @ @ @ is a much bigger problem if that gets out of hand .
Which honestly it @ @ @ @ @ will because that greek line is WAY too steep .
Greece is the bellweather for @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s not looking good .

by Desogames
No need to make this post long. This one’s pretty obvious. No way in hell do i trust the greek 10 year right now; but i wanted to see if the periphery was disconnecting from the EU’s “core” (and the UK cause why not)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Yep. Betcha didn’t expect that. I didn’t either. Seems we have another problem on our hands sometime these next 2 weeks, and maybe even as early as tomorrow.
Wish we could keep it virus central but the virus seriously isn’t the biggest oncoming problem anymore. The authorities are at least starting to take that seriously but the above is a much bigger problem if that gets out of hand. Which honestly it’s looking like it will because that greek line is WAY too steep. Greece is the bellweather for the EU bond market and it’s not looking good.


Bad, very bad

Investors looking for the bottom right now pic.twitter.com/9RLb0mn3pi “ The first rule of crisis management is do n't fire all @ @ @ @ @ not going to hit the target , ” says Allianz ’ s @ elerianm though @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus is key .
`` We will get through this '' ❤ # Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ forward please watch bond ETFs even more than stocks .. if we see more credit @ @ @ @ @ may be forced to sell b/c they are n't allowed to hold certain debt levels @ @ @ @ @ & P , Moody 's & Fitch will be in focus

Investors looking for the bottom right now pic.twitter.com/9RLb0mn3pi
“The first rule of crisis management is don't fire all your ammunition when it is not going to hit the target,” says Allianz’s @elerianm though his bigger message re #coronavirus is key. "We will get through this" ❤ #Fed @firstmove $SPX pic.twitter.com/Q6D8mSIkMl
Boeing credit rating cut by S&P.
Going forward please watch bond ETFs even more than stocks .. if we see more credit rating downgrades, certain funds may be forced to sell b/c they aren't allowed to hold certain debt levels.
Once again, S&P, Moody's & Fitch will be in focus
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--MAJOR ECONOMIC DEPRESSION AHEAD? Global Oil Demand To Fall Drastically

The world is heading towards a global depression , but the market hasn ’ t quite figured it out yet .
Unfortunately , many analysts and economists continue to believe that the worldwide contagion will be generally short-lived , suggesting growth will return in the second half of the year .
A perfect example is the overly optimistic forecasts of global oil demand by the International Energy Agency ( IEA ) .
Each month , the IEA puts out their OMR , Oil Market Report on global oil supply and demand statistics .
According to the IEA ’ s January @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be 100.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020 .
However , when the February report was released ( February 13th ) , the IEA revised the Q1 2020 global oil demand lower to 98.8 million barrels per day ( mbd ) , due to the significant decline in Chinese domestic oil consumption stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak .
But , then when the IEA ’ s March report was just released , the organization revised the Q1 2020 global oil demand lower again to only 97.6 mbd .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 forecast ( in RED ) in a minute .
In the article , Oil demand set to contract , says IEA , after 2.5 per cent drop in Q1 : According to the IEA , global oil demand already fell by approximately 2.5 % in the first quarter of 2020 , wiping out 2.5 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) in that period , and setting the course for oil demand to shrink by 90,000 barrels per day throughout the whole year .
Global oil supply fell by 580,000 barrels per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to production slowing dramatically in Libya .
Conversely , global oil demand unsurprisingly fell by 1.8 mb/d in China , leading to global oil demand ’ s dramatic decline of 2.5 mb/d .
However , the IEA currently assumes that oil demand will return to “ close to normal ” in the second half of 2020 , after a second quarter in which global oil demand is only “ slightly lower ” than a year earlier .
The IEA therefore expects to see global oil demand in the second half of 2020 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared with the second half of 2019 .
I disagree with some of the forecasts the IEA stated in the quote above .
First , the data in the IEA ’ s March report is based on statistics from February .
While economic activity picked up a bit in March , China ’ s passenger traffic is still 70-75 % less than it was before the Lunar New Year ( source : Capital Economics ) .
Secondly , the IEA stated that Chinese oil demand fell 1.8 mbd , leading to a global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , this data is still based on February ’ s statistics .
What about March ?
?
How many other countries , such as Iran and Italy , have quarantined major cities .
And what about the additional lockdown measures in European countries and the United States ?
These will mostly take place in March .
Third , there is no way that China ’ s oil consumption was only down 1.8 mbd in February .
Either the IEA totally screwed up on the data or China provided false information that goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party Playbook ; a tactic to hide from the world just how bad the COVID-19 situation is in China .
If passenger traffic ( car , airline , ship , and rail ) is still down 70+ % , then China ’ s oil consumption must be at least 3-5 mbd less , not 1.8 mbd .
Please note , while China may be importing oil , refining it , then placing it in storage , the country is consuming one hell of a lot less oil .
So , if we look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Q1 2020 global oil demand will fall to 95-96 mbd , maybe even lower : The IEA is behaving much like the governments around the world that are SEVERAL STEPS behind the curve in their response to the COVID-19 .
I knew when the IEA released its February report ; the global oil demand forecasts would be too optimistic .
The same thing occurred when the IEA published its March report .
And , I imagine the same thing will take place in the April report .
From the article quoted above , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return “ Close to normal ” in the second half of the year .
Really ?
?
I don ’ t see that as a likely scenario .
Depending on different sources , the estimated peak spread of the COVID-19 is in May .
However , it could go on even longer .
But , even if the peak occurs in late May , do analysts really believe that people are going to start jumping back in cars , planes , and on cruises the very next month or several months ?
?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Or , how about all the economic and financial damage that will be done to small and large businesses as many cities go into lockdown and or in quarantine ?
Can we turn the global economy back on in a just few months ?
?
In one of Chris Martenson ’ s recent youtube interviews , he discusses how he is concerned with the breakdown in the complex supply chain .
I agree .
I don ’ t believe we have even begun to see the negative ramifications of the collapse in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at the global commercial air flights , they are already down 5 % year over year , as of March 11th : But , if we compare the global air flight traffic from the peak in January , it is down 9 % .
We are only starting to see the massive contraction in worldwide commercial air flights .
I believe April will show that the BLUE line in the chart will drop like a rock .
We shouldn ’ t be surprised to see global air traffic to decline by 25+ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of May .
Thus , by taking account the spread of the COVID-19 in the United States and the rest of the world , my forecast is for global oil demand to fall 10 mbd for 2020 , not the 90,000 bd decline forecasted by the IEA : The IEA also put out its guidance for the Full Year 2020 global oil demand .
In the IEA ’ s January report , it stated that global oil demand would be increase to 101.5 mbd for 2020 .
However , as we can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the IEA lowered its forecasts .
In its March report , the IEA believes global oil demand will average 100.2 mbd , approximately 90,000 bd less than in 2019 .
How can the IEA provide such optimistic forecasts ?
?
Again , I believe Q1 2020 global oil demand will likely be 95-96 mbd .
Then it will fall even further in the second quarter to 92-94 mbd as more restrictions , quarantines , and lockdowns take place throughout the world .
With the world shutting down to a larger extent in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profoundly negative impact on the financial system and economic markets .
A large amount of small and large businesses will suffer , which will lead to continued recession-depression in the second half of the year .
I don ’ t see how a quick V-shaped recovery would take place .
I might be wrong , but it seems to me that analysts are totally underestimating the impact of this global contagion .
In this last chart , here are the major downturns in the U.S. Economy based on the changes in annual GDP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1930 ’ s depression , U.S. GDP growth was a negative 12.9 % ( 1932 ) .
After WW2 ended , U.S. GDP growth declined to 11.6 % ( 1946 ) .
During the last two major recessions , U.S. GDP growth fell 1.8 % ( 1982 ) and 2.5 % ( 2009 ) .
Currently , forecasts are showing that Italy ’ s GDP during Q1 2020 could be a negative 2.5 % .
I also believe this figure is overly optimistic .
Regardless , Italy ’ s economic activity will likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which may fall more than 5+ % .
With the United States now closing all sorts of venues , such as Theme Parks , Sporting Events , Schools , Public Gatherings , and so forth , there is no way the country can do so without its GDP falling 5 % by Q2 2020 .
Actually , I believe it will be even higher , maybe 7-10 % .
Thus , the global contagion , that is still in the beginning stages , will make the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis pale in comparison @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say that I doubt Global GDP will ever surpass the $ 87.2 trillion in 2019 ( source : Worldometer ) .
Why ?
As I stated , when U.S. shale oil peaks , so will global oil production .
Falling global oil production translates into declining Global GDP .
When oil prices fall to the high teens , it will be the Deathknell of the U.S. Shale oil industry , regardless of bailouts or price controls .
I will be posting a new update on the precious metals shortly .
IMPORTANT NOTE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .
If you are new to the SRSrocco Report , please consider subscribing to my : SRSrocco Report Youtube Channel .
HOW TO SUPPORT THE SRSROCCO REPORT SITE I would also like to thank those foundation supporters , who have chosen to become a member by making donations through PayPal to further the research and publishing work at the SRSrocco Report .
Please consider supporting my work on Patreon

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report
The world is heading towards a global depression, but the market hasn’t quite figured it out yet. Unfortunately, many analysts and economists continue to believe that the worldwide contagion will be generally short-lived, suggesting growth will return in the second half of the year.
A perfect example is the overly optimistic forecasts of global oil demand by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Each month, the IEA puts out their OMR, Oil Market Report on global oil supply and demand statistics. According to the IEA’s January report, it forecasted global oil demand to be 100.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020.
However, when the February report was released (February 13th), the IEA revised the Q1 2020 global oil demand lower to 98.8 million barrels per day (mbd), due to the significant decline in Chinese domestic oil consumption stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak. But, then when the IEA’s March report was just released, the organization revised the Q1 2020 global oil demand lower again to only 97.6 mbd. I’ll get to my Q1 2020 forecast (in RED) in a minute.
In the article, Oil demand set to contract, says IEA, after 2.5 per cent drop in Q1:
According to the IEA, global oil demand already fell by approximately 2.5% in the first quarter of 2020, wiping out 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in that period, and setting the course for oil demand to shrink by 90,000 barrels per day throughout the whole year. Global oil supply fell by 580,000 barrels per day in February due in large part to production slowing dramatically in Libya. Conversely, global oil demand unsurprisingly fell by 1.8 mb/d in China, leading to global oil demand’s dramatic decline of 2.5 mb/d. However, the IEA currently assumes that oil demand will return to “close to normal” in the second half of 2020, after a second quarter in which global oil demand is only “slightly lower” than a year earlier. The IEA therefore expects to see global oil demand in the second half of 2020 to pick up and grow by 1.1 mb/d compared with the second half of 2019.
I disagree with some of the forecasts the IEA stated in the quote above. First, the data in the IEA’s March report is based on statistics from February. While economic activity picked up a bit in March, China’s passenger traffic is still 70-75% less than it was before the Lunar New Year (source: Capital Economics).
Secondly, the IEA stated that Chinese oil demand fell 1.8 mbd, leading to a global oil demand decline of 2.5 mbd. However, this data is still based on February’s statistics. What about March?? How many other countries, such as Iran and Italy, have quarantined major cities. And what about the additional lockdown measures in European countries and the United States? These will mostly take place in March.
Third, there is no way that China’s oil consumption was only down 1.8 mbd in February. Either the IEA totally screwed up on the data or China provided false information that goes along with the CCP, Chinese Communist Party Playbook; a tactic to hide from the world just how bad the COVID-19 situation is in China. If passenger traffic (car, airline, ship, and rail) is still down 70+%, then China’s oil consumption must be at least 3-5 mbd less, not 1.8 mbd.
Please note, while China may be importing oil, refining it, then placing it in storage, the country is consuming one hell of a lot less oil.
So, if we look at the chart again, I believe Q1 2020 global oil demand will fall to 95-96 mbd, maybe even lower:
The IEA is behaving much like the governments around the world that are SEVERAL STEPS behind the curve in their response to the COVID-19. I knew when the IEA released its February report; the global oil demand forecasts would be too optimistic. The same thing occurred when the IEA published its March report. And, I imagine the same thing will take place in the April report.
From the article quoted above, the IEA believes global oil demand will return “Close to normal” in the second half of the year. Really?? I don’t see that as a likely scenario. Depending on different sources, the estimated peak spread of the COVID-19 is in May. However, it could go on even longer. But, even if the peak occurs in late May, do analysts really believe that people are going to start jumping back in cars, planes, and on cruises the very next month or several months?? I most certainly wouldn’t.
Or, how about all the economic and financial damage that will be done to small and large businesses as many cities go into lockdown and or in quarantine? Can we turn the global economy back on in a just few months?? In one of Chris Martenson’s recent youtube interviews, he discusses how he is concerned with the breakdown in the complex supply chain. I agree. I don’t believe we have even begun to see the negative ramifications of the collapse in the Just-In-Time Inventory Supply Chain.
If we look at the global commercial air flights, they are already down 5% year over year, as of March 11th:
But, if we compare the global air flight traffic from the peak in January, it is down 9%. We are only starting to see the massive contraction in worldwide commercial air flights. I believe April will show that the BLUE line in the chart will drop like a rock. We shouldn’t be surprised to see global air traffic to decline by 25+% (or MORE) by the end of May.
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Thus, by taking account the spread of the COVID-19 in the United States and the rest of the world, my forecast is for global oil demand to fall 10 mbd for 2020, not the 90,000 bd decline forecasted by the IEA:
The IEA also put out its guidance for the Full Year 2020 global oil demand. In the IEA’s January report, it stated that global oil demand would be increase to 101.5 mbd for 2020. However, as we can see, as each report was released, the IEA lowered its forecasts. In its March report, the IEA believes global oil demand will average 100.2 mbd, approximately 90,000 bd less than in 2019.
How can the IEA provide such optimistic forecasts?? Again, I believe Q1 2020 global oil demand will likely be 95-96 mbd. Then it will fall even further in the second quarter to 92-94 mbd as more restrictions, quarantines, and lockdowns take place throughout the world.
With the world shutting down to a larger extent in Q2 2020, this will have a profoundly negative impact on the financial system and economic markets. A large amount of small and large businesses will suffer, which will lead to continued recession-depression in the second half of the year. I don’t see how a quick V-shaped recovery would take place. I might be wrong, but it seems to me that analysts are totally underestimating the impact of this global contagion.
In this last chart, here are the major downturns in the U.S. Economy based on the changes in annual GDP Growth:
During the depths of the 1930’s depression, U.S. GDP growth was a negative 12.9% (1932). After WW2 ended, U.S. GDP growth declined to 11.6% (1946). During the last two major recessions, U.S. GDP growth fell 1.8% (1982) and 2.5% (2009). Currently, forecasts are showing that Italy’s GDP during Q1 2020 could be a negative 2.5%. I also believe this figure is overly optimistic. Regardless, Italy’s economic activity will likely continue to contract in the second quarter, which may fall more than 5+%.
With the United States now closing all sorts of venues, such as Theme Parks, Sporting Events, Schools, Public Gatherings, and so forth, there is no way the country can do so without its GDP falling 5% by Q2 2020. Actually, I believe it will be even higher, maybe 7-10%.
Thus, the global contagion, that is still in the beginning stages, will make the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis pale in comparison.
I will go as far as to say that I doubt Global GDP will ever surpass the $87.2 trillion in 2019 (source: Worldometer). Why? As I stated, when U.S. shale oil peaks, so will global oil production. Falling global oil production translates into declining Global GDP. When oil prices fall to the high teens, it will be the Deathknell of the U.S. Shale oil industry, regardless of bailouts or price controls.
I will be posting a new update on the precious metals shortly.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.
If you are new to the SRSrocco Report, please consider subscribing to my: SRSrocco Report Youtube Channel.
HOW TO SUPPORT THE SRSROCCO REPORT SITE
I would also like to thank those foundation supporters, who have chosen to become a member by making donations through PayPal to further the research and publishing work at the SRSrocco Report.
Please consider supporting my work on Patreon


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Alasdair Macleod: The Whole Of Europe Is Shutting Down, The US Is Next

With the global economy shutting down , stock markets and oil and precious metals are all crashing , despite the @ @ @ @ @ unprecedented crisis measures .
But the real tectonic disruption about to rock our lives is @ @ @ @ @ , and black hole of the debt derivative complex which underpins all else in the @ @ @ @ @ , head of research at GoldMoney.com , issues an urgent update to help us be @ @ @ @ @ massive endgame is being played out on a global scale .

Alasdair Macleod interviewed by Dunagun Kaiser on Reluctant Preppers
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
With the global economy shutting down, stock markets and oil and precious metals are all crashing, despite the Fed and POTUS rushing in unprecedented crisis measures. But the real tectonic disruption about to rock our lives is the failure of the currency, and black hole of the debt derivative complex which underpins all else in the financial world. Alasdair Macleod, head of research at GoldMoney.com, issues an urgent update to help us be aware and prepared as the massive endgame is being played out on a global scale.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Profits & Earnings Suggest The Bear Market Isn’t Over.

Is the bear market over yet ?
This is the question that everyone wants to know .
Why ?
So they can “ buy the bottom.
” For that reason alone , I would suggest the current “ bear market ” is not over yet .
Historically speaking , at the bottom of bear market cycles , as we saw in 1932 , 1974 , 2002 , and 2008 , there are few individuals willing to put capital at risk .
Given the large number of people on social media clamoring to jump back in the market given the rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ optimism , ” and “ recency bias , ” are still far too prevalent in the market .
As noted in this past weekend ’ s newsletter , Bob Farrell , a legendary investor , is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow .
• Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline .
• After this decline , there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline .
• The longer-term decline then continues , at a slower and more grinding pace , as the fundamentals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between .
While the correction has been sharp in recent weeks , it hasn ’ t inflicted enough “ emotional pain ” to deter individuals from jumping back in .
As I stated : Just like in 2000 , and 2008 , the media/Wall Street will be telling you to just “ hold on.
” Unfortunately , by the time “ Phase 3 ” was finished , there was no one wanting to “ buy ” anything .
That ’ s how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is over .
From an investment view , I prefer more data-driven analysis to determine if the current bear market is over .
In a previous post , I discussed the deviation of the stock market from corporate profitability .
To wit : It isn ’ t just the deviation of asset prices from corporate profitability which is skewed , but also reported earnings per share .
As I have discussed previously , the operating and reported earnings per share are heavily manipulated by accounting gimmicks , share buybacks , and cost suppression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come as no surprise that companies manipulate bottom-line earnings to win the quarterly ‘ beat the estimate ’ game .
By utilizing ‘ cookie-jar ’ reserves , heavy use of accruals , and other accounting instruments they can mold earnings to expectations .
‘ The tricks are well-known : A difficult quarter can be made easier by releasing reserves set aside for a rainy day or recognizing revenues before sales are made , while a good quarter is often the time to hide a big ‘ restructuring charge ’ that would otherwise stand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more surprising though is CFOs ’ belief that these practices leave a significant mark on companies ’ reported profits and losses .
When asked about the magnitude of the earnings misrepresentation , the study ’ s respondents said it was around 10 % of earnings per share.
’ “ This is also why EBITDA has become an ineffective measure of financial strength .
As I noted in “ Earnings Lies & Why Munger Says EBITDA is B.S .
: ” As Charlie Munger once said : Before the recent market rout , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profits is one of the largest on record .
This is an anomaly that should , in reality , not exist .
However , it is worse than it appears .
There is an interesting company included in the calculation of corporate profits , which is not widely recognized in most analysis .
If you are an astute follower of our blog , you may recognize this particular company by the size of their balance sheet as shown below .
Yes , you guessed it ( and it ’ s in the title @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reserve .
When the Treasury Department pays interest one the debt , an expense to the U.S. Government , the Federal Reserve takes that in as “ profits ” which is reported on their balance sheet .
Then , at the end of the year , the Fed remits a portion of the “ revenue ” back to the Government ( who also count it as revenue ) .
These “ profits , ” which are generated by the Federal Reserve ’ s balance sheet , are included in the corporate profits discussed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporate profitability is weaker if you extract the Fed ’ s profits from the analysis .
It ’ s quite amazing , and with the Fed massively increasing their balance sheet , their profitability will expand further .
Nonetheless , since the Fed ’ s balance sheet is part of the corporate profit calculation , we must include them in our analysis .
While the media is focused on record operating profits , reported corporate profits are roughly at the same level as they were in 2011 .
Yet , the market has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same period .
The detachment of the stock market from underlying profitability guarantees poor future outcomes for investors .
But , as has always been the case , the markets can certainly seem to “ remain irrational longer than logic would predict , ” but it never lasts indefinitely .
The impending recession , and consumption freeze , is going to start the mean-reversion process in both corporate profits and earnings .
In the following series of charts , I have projected the potential reversion .
The reversion in GAAP earnings is pretty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have run on a fairly consistent trend .
( The last drop off is the estimate to for a recession ) Using that historical context , we can project a recession will reduce earnings to roughly $ 100/share .
The resulting decline asset prices to revert valuations to a level of 18x ( still high ) trailing earnings would suggest a level of $ 1800 for the S & P 500 index .
Let me suggest that I am not being “ overly dramatic ” or “ super bearish.
” There is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thesis .
As I noted on Twitter , you can pick your valuation range , and do the math .
We can support that thesis with corporate profits .
If we look at inflation-adjusted profit margins as a percentage of inflation-adjusted GDP , we see the same process of mean-reverting activity over time .
Of course , these mean reverting events are always coupled with recessions , crisis , or bear markets .
More importantly , corporate profit margins have physical constraints .
Out of each dollar of revenue created , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D , wages , etc .
Currently , one of the biggest beneficiaries to expanding profit margins has been the suppression of employment , wage growth , and artificially suppressed interest rates , which have significantly lowered borrowing costs .
The oncoming recession will cause a rather marked collapse in corporate profitability as consumption declines .
The chart below shows corporate profits overlaid against the S & P 500 index .
As with GAAP Earnings in the chart above , I have projected the potential reversion in corporate profitability as well .
When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S & P 500 index as compared to the level of profits , we find again that when investors pay more than $ 1 for a $ 1 worth of profits , there is an reversal of those excesses To this point , it has seemed to be a simple formula that as long as the Fed remains active in supporting asset prices , the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn ’ t matter .
It has been a hard point to argue .
However , what has started , and has yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean reversion ” process which has always followed bull markets .
This should not be a surprise to anyone , as asset prices eventually reflect the underlying reality of corporate profitability .
Are we at the bottom yet ?
Probably not , if history is any guide .

by Lance Roberts
Is the bear market over yet?
This is the question that everyone wants to know. Why? So they can “buy the bottom.”
For that reason alone, I would suggest the current “bear market” is not over yet. Historically speaking, at the bottom of bear market cycles, as we saw in 1932, 1974, 2002, and 2008, there are few individuals willing to put capital at risk.
Given the large number of people on social media clamoring to jump back in the market given the rally this past Friday, it suggests that “optimism,” and “recency bias,” are still far too prevalent in the market.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, Bob Farrell, a legendary investor, is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow.
“Rule #8 states: Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.”
Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.
While the correction has been sharp in recent weeks, it hasn’t inflicted enough “emotional pain” to deter individuals from jumping back in. As I stated:
“That selloff sets up a ‘reflexive bounce.’ For many individuals, they will ‘feel like’ they are ‘safe.’ This is how ‘bear market rallies’ lure investors back just before they are mauled again in ‘Phase 3.’”
Just like in 2000, and 2008, the media/Wall Street will be telling you to just “hold on.” Unfortunately, by the time “Phase 3” was finished, there was no one wanting to “buy” anything.
That’s how you know a “bear market” is over.
Price To Profits & Earnings
From an investment view, I prefer more data-driven analysis to determine if the current bear market is over.
In a previous post, I discussed the deviation of the stock market from corporate profitability. To wit:
“If the economy is slowing down, revenue and corporate profit growth will decline also. However, it is this point which the ‘bulls’ should be paying attention to. Many are dismissing currently high valuations under the guise of ‘low interest rates,’ however, the one thing you should not dismiss, and cannot make an excuse for, is the massive deviation between the market and corporate profits after tax. The only other time in history the difference was this great was in 1999.”
It isn’t just the deviation of asset prices from corporate profitability which is skewed, but also reported earnings per share.
As I have discussed previously, the operating and reported earnings per share are heavily manipulated by accounting gimmicks, share buybacks, and cost suppression. To wit:
“It should come as no surprise that companies manipulate bottom-line earnings to win the quarterly ‘beat the estimate’ game. By utilizing ‘cookie-jar’ reserves, heavy use of accruals, and other accounting instruments they can mold earnings to expectations. ‘The tricks are well-known: A difficult quarter can be made easier by releasing reserves set aside for a rainy day or recognizing revenues before sales are made, while a good quarter is often the time to hide a big ‘restructuring charge’ that would otherwise stand out like a sore thumb. What is more surprising though is CFOs’ belief that these practices leave a significant mark on companies’ reported profits and losses. When asked about the magnitude of the earnings misrepresentation, the study’s respondents said it was around 10% of earnings per share.’“
This is also why EBITDA has become an ineffective measure of financial strength. As I noted in “Earnings Lies & Why Munger Says EBITDA is B.S.:”
“As shown in the table, it is not surprising to see that 93% of the respondents pointed to ‘influence on stock price’ and ‘outside pressure’ as the reason for manipulating earnings figures. For fundamental investors, this manipulation of earnings skews valuation analysis particularly with respect to P/E’s, EV/EBITDA, PEG, etc.”
As Charlie Munger once said:
“I think that every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the word ‘bullshit’ earnings.”
Corporate Profits Weaker Than Advertised
Before the recent market rout, the deviation between reported earnings and corporate profits is one of the largest on record. This is an anomaly that should, in reality, not exist.
However, it is worse than it appears.
There is an interesting company included in the calculation of corporate profits, which is not widely recognized in most analysis. If you are an astute follower of our blog, you may recognize this particular company by the size of their balance sheet as shown below.
Yes, you guessed it (and it’s in the title). It’s the Federal Reserve.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
When the Treasury Department pays interest one the debt, an expense to the U.S. Government, the Federal Reserve takes that in as “profits” which is reported on their balance sheet. Then, at the end of the year, the Fed remits a portion of the “revenue” back to the Government (who also count it as revenue).
These “profits,” which are generated by the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, are included in the corporate profits discussed here. As shown below, actual corporate profitability is weaker if you extract the Fed’s profits from the analysis.
It’s quite amazing, and with the Fed massively increasing their balance sheet, their profitability will expand further.
Nonetheless, since the Fed’s balance sheet is part of the corporate profit calculation, we must include them in our analysis. While the media is focused on record operating profits, reported corporate profits are roughly at the same level as they were in 2011. Yet, the market has been making consistent new highs during that same period.
Estimating The Risk
The detachment of the stock market from underlying profitability guarantees poor future outcomes for investors. But, as has always been the case, the markets can certainly seem to “remain irrational longer than logic would predict,” but it never lasts indefinitely.
“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system, and it is not functioning properly.” – Jeremy Grantham
The impending recession, and consumption freeze, is going to start the mean-reversion process in both corporate profits and earnings. In the following series of charts, I have projected the potential reversion.
The reversion in GAAP earnings is pretty calculable as swings from peaks to troughs have run on a fairly consistent trend. (The last drop off is the estimate to for a recession)
Using that historical context, we can project a recession will reduce earnings to roughly $100/share. The resulting decline asset prices to revert valuations to a level of 18x (still high) trailing earnings would suggest a level of $1800 for the S&P 500 index.
Let me suggest that I am not being “overly dramatic” or “super bearish.” There is a good bit of data to support the thesis. As I noted on Twitter, you can pick your valuation range, and do the math.
S&P Estimates still WAY too high.
Using historical drawdowns in earnings, and peak to trough ranges, earnings will drop to $100/share during the #recession2020 – Pick your valuation target for #SPY bottom.
20x = 2000
18x = 1800
15x = 1500 (Long-Term Avg)
13x = 1300 Undervalued pic.twitter.com/v4inJMdAlj — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 15, 2020
Don’t believe me?
We can support that thesis with corporate profits.
If we look at inflation-adjusted profit margins as a percentage of inflation-adjusted GDP, we see the same process of mean-reverting activity over time. Of course, these mean reverting events are always coupled with recessions, crisis, or bear markets.
More importantly, corporate profit margins have physical constraints. Out of each dollar of revenue created, there are costs such as infrastructure, R&D, wages, etc. Currently, one of the biggest beneficiaries to expanding profit margins has been the suppression of employment, wage growth, and artificially suppressed interest rates, which have significantly lowered borrowing costs. The oncoming recession will cause a rather marked collapse in corporate profitability as consumption declines.
The chart below shows corporate profits overlaid against the S&P 500 index. As with GAAP Earnings in the chart above, I have projected the potential reversion in corporate profitability as well.
When we measure the cumulative change in the S&P 500 index as compared to the level of profits, we find again that when investors pay more than $1 for a $1 worth of profits, there is an reversal of those excesses
The correlation is clearer when looking at the market versus the ratio of corporate profits to GDP. Again, since corporate profits are ultimately a function of economic growth, the correlation is not unexpected. Hence, neither should the impending reversion in both series.
To this point, it has seemed to be a simple formula that as long as the Fed remains active in supporting asset prices, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter. It has been a hard point to argue. However, what has started, and has yet to complete, is the historical “mean reversion” process which has always followed bull markets. This should not be a surprise to anyone, as asset prices eventually reflect the underlying reality of corporate profitability. Recessions reverse excesses. Are we at the bottom yet? Probably not, if history is any guide.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Jim Renacci: “The recent Coronavirus outbreak proves that President Trump was right… we need to move

Jim Renacci: “The recent Coronavirus outbreak proves that President Trump was right… we need to move away from China and build resilient diversified supply chains.

Particularly we must start manufacturing more goods back here in America !
# AmericaFirst # MAGA ” The recent Coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ was right… we need to move away from China and build resilient diversified supply chains @ @ @ @ @ manufacturing more goods back here in America !
# AmericaFirst # MAGA pic.twitter.com/AzzlElhBre

Particularly we must start manufacturing more goods back here in America! #AmericaFirst #MAGA”
The recent Coronavirus outbreak proves that President Trump was right… we need to move away from China and build resilient diversified supply chains.
Particularly we must start manufacturing more goods back here in America!#AmericaFirst #MAGA pic.twitter.com/AzzlElhBre
— Jim Renacci (@JimRenacci) March 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--ZERO credibility: The media

ZERO credibility: The media

I ’ d be cautious using this Google web site .
Very cautious .

by DCG
They’ve bee lying since Nov. 8, 2016…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I’d be cautious using this Google web site. Very cautious.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--DEMOCRATS SEEK $750 BILLION TO FIGHT THE VIRUS

WASHINGTON ( AP ) — With an urgency unseen since the Great Recession , Congress is rushing to develop a sweeping economic lifeline for American households and businesses suddenly capsized by the coronavirus outbreak .
Democrats said at least $ 750 billion would be needed .
“ We will need big , bold , urgent federal action to deal with this crisis , ” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Monday .
Republicans often reluctant to spend federal dollars did not flinch at the head-spinning number , as a roster of America ’ s big and small industries — airlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for aid .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he wants a “ comprehensive ” approach with “ significant steps ” for the economy , particularly Main Street businesses .
He opened the Senate on Monday with a message to Americans : “ The Senate stands with you.
” The rush to inject cash and resources into the economy is an effort unlike any since the 2008 economic crisis , with political and economic interventions and eye-popping sums to try to protect Americans from the health and financial fallout .
Sen. Mitt Romney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1,000 to every American .

WASHINGTON (AP) — With an urgency unseen since the Great Recession, Congress is rushing to develop a sweeping economic lifeline for American households and businesses suddenly capsized by the coronavirus outbreak.
Democrats said at least $750 billion would be needed.
“We will need big, bold, urgent federal action to deal with this crisis,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Monday.
Republicans often reluctant to spend federal dollars did not flinch at the head-spinning number, as a roster of America’s big and small industries — airlines, hotels, retailers — lined up for aid.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he wants a “comprehensive” approach with “significant steps” for the economy, particularly Main Street businesses. He opened the Senate on Monday with a message to Americans: “The Senate stands with you.”
The rush to inject cash and resources into the economy is an effort unlike any since the 2008 economic crisis, with political and economic interventions and eye-popping sums to try to protect Americans from the health and financial fallout.
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, called for sending $1,000 to every American.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Why do we keep bailing out one of the richest people in the world?

The biggest U.S. airlines spent 96 % of free cash flow last decade on buying back their own shares .
@ @ @ @ @ which is not shown in the chart but is included in overall figures — led @ @ @ @ @ cumulative free cash flow during the decade while it repurchased more than $ 12.5 billion @ @ @ @ @ Airlines Holdings Inc. used 80 % of its free cash flow on buybacks , while @ @ @ @ @ Index as a whole allocated about 50 % for the purpose .
As the industry @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus outbreak corporate leaders are seeking federal assistance to ease the burden .

by delelles
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/u-s-airlines-spent-96-of-free-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart
The biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of free cash flow last decade on buying back their own shares. American Airlines Group Inc. — which is not shown in the chart but is included in overall figures — led the pack, with negative cumulative free cash flow during the decade while it repurchased more than $12.5 billion of its shares. United Airlines Holdings Inc. used 80% of its free cash flow on buybacks, while the S&P 500 Index as a whole allocated about 50% for the purpose. As the industry reels under the weight of the coronavirus outbreak corporate leaders are seeking federal assistance to ease the burden.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-17--Unemployment is going to pop BIGGLY…

Unemployment is going to pop BIGGLY…

Check out the chart in its ‘ max ’ data… It ’ s going to get ugly .
Get ready @ @ @ @ @ the fan .
By simply extrapolating from historical data I ’ d say my hypothesis @ @ @

Check out the chart in its ‘max’ data…
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
It’s going to get ugly.
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Get ready for the shot to hit the fan.
By simply extrapolating from historical data I’d say my hypothesis is correct.
AC