investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--It Should Shock Us That There’s Any Consumer Price Inflation at All

Thanks to lockdowns , high unemployment , and general uncertainty and fear over covid-19 , the personal saving rate in the United States in October was 13.6 percent , the highest since the mid-1970s .
This is down from April ’ s rate of 33.7 percent , which was the highest saving rate recorded since the Second World War .
Moreover , among those who received “ stimulus ” checks under the CARES Act , only 15 percent of those surveyed in a National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER ) study reported spending it .
Thirty-three percent said they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said they used the money to pay down debt .
Taken all together , these factors should spell an immense amount of deflationary pressure , both on the money supply , and ultimately on consumer prices as well.1 Central bankers , of course , recoil at the idea of deflation , and hate the idea of Americans saving money and putting actual loanable funds—backed by savings—into the financial system .
Rather , the bankers insist we all take every dime we have and spend it on entertainment and on trinkets that are perhaps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact that the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) never fell to zero in the midst of all of this—and is now headed to 2 percent—shows central bankers ’ power to inflate .
The conclusion that central bankers and vulgar Keynesians want us to draw from tepid growth in consumer prices is that since consumer price inflation is not remarkably high , then central banks have plenty of room to further inflate the money supply in pursuit of avoiding dreaded deflation .
Consider for example , how the Fed ’ s chairman , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speak often of inflation targets and how they conclude more credit expansion is prudent and justified so long as price indices aren ’ t increasing beyond some arbitrarily set “ correct ” rate of around 2 percent .
“ Hey , so long as consumer prices are rising , we have nothing to worry about , ” is the general refrain .
Thus , central bankers assure the public that central banks must have carte blanche to keep inflating the money supply through efforts to drive down interest rates and to directly inflate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In America , for example , the central bank has been monetizing the national debt since 2008 .
And since the covid crash , the Fed has begun monetizing even more than that as it began buying up corporate bonds in June .
In spite of all of this , consumer price increases have not exactly skyrocketed upward—the lack of price inflation likely reflects just how much households have scaled back their spending .
But this doesn ’ t mean everything is okay .
Here ’ s the rub : the extent to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t really the measure of how much damage is being done by expansive monetary policy .
Sure , price inflation tends to accompany money supply inflation , but it ’ s only one effect .
Another effect—perhaps a more damaging one—is the fact that money supply inflation creates bubbles and malinvestment while also redistributing wealth in a political and inequitable way .
Consider asset price inflation .
The Dow Jones has become completely divorced from the economic realities of American households as stock prices rally ever upward .
And home prices , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been heading toward new multiyear highs in recent months .
The real issue—one that ’ s hard to measure and which leads to sizable problems later , is malinvestment .
Shostak continues : These bubbles represent malinvestment .
They are economic activities that would not have occurred—or at least not have occurred to the same degree—without the injection of new unbacked money into the economy .
What ’ s more , they take resources that would have gone to other activities highly valued by consumers and investors , and instead direct them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already see the effects of this in the United States today .
Although millions of small businesses sit on the brink of insolvency thanks to lockdowns and declines in consumer spending , the portfolios of Wall Street bankers and investors spiral upward .
This is in part due to the central bank ’ s monetary policy .
Thorsten Polleit has shown that movement in the stock market tends to follow money creation .
Louis Rouanet explains how it works : We can list four main reasons why the growth of financial markets is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply : ( 1 ) because financial titles are often used as collateral in debt contracts ; ( 2 ) because the anticipation of price-inflation , which is a common trait among all fiat money regimes , discourages the hoarding of money thus encouraging both the demand for and the supply of financial titles ; ( 3 ) because the production of money through central banks is a matter of sheer human will and is therefore prone to developing moral-hazard in the financial world .
This leads to an artificially high demand for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such titles by the same token .
And ( 4 ) because the manipulation of credit by central banks and banks , by lowering the interest rate in the short run , particularly affects the demand for capital and the capital structure during the course of the business cycle .
One of the most visible consequence [ s ] of this growth of financial markets triggered by monetary expansion is asset price inflation .
In a completely sound money system where credit only depends on the amount of saving rather than on fiduciary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for generalized and persistent asset-price inflation as the amount of funds which can be used to purchase assets is strictly limited .
In other words , the phenomenon of asset-price inflation is a child of credit inflation .
We can see where this leads in terms of who comes out on top .
People who are heavily invested in the financial sector will make a lot of money .
Those who can ’ t afford to speculate in stocks will do less well .
Those who own a lot of real estate will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be largely out of luck .
Moreover , those who directly benefit from government spending—such as government contractors , government employees , and beneficiaries of government lending programs—will do well .
But those whose low income and lack of political influence doesn ’ t win them the benefits of cheap loans and government grants ?
They ’ re largely out of luck .
This represents an immense transfer of wealth from some groups to other groups .
Most important , as Shostak notes , it is a transfer away from those enterprises most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who benefit from central bank–fueled credit expansion and bubble economies .
In our world today , this largely means a transfer of wealth from middle-class business owners , working-class laborers , and anyone who can ’ t afford to buy a large stake in the new bubble industries .
The winners tend to be billionaires , investment bankers , and those who collect a government paycheck , whether they are ostensibly government employees or not .
And this can all happen even without high rates of consumer price inflation .
If people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and saving for the future , we should expect to see deflation in prices at the consumer level .
But that sort of deflation doesn ’ t mean there can ’ t be big-time growth in asset prices which are strategically positioned to benefit from the central bank ’ s easy money .
In other words , even without obvious consumer price inflation , we ’ re still living in the midst of immense wealth transfer engineered by government technocrats for the benefit of those lucky enough to be anointed the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excessive focus on consumer price inflation may lead some to miss this .
• 1.If households pay off debt faster than new loans are made , the money supply would shrink , all else being equal .
Ryan McMaken ( @ ryanmcmaken ) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute .
Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado .
He is the author of Commie Cowboys : The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre @

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
Thanks to lockdowns, high unemployment, and general uncertainty and fear over covid-19, the personal saving rate in the United States in October was 13.6 percent, the highest since the mid-1970s. This is down from April’s rate of 33.7 percent, which was the highest saving rate recorded since the Second World War.
Moreover, among those who received “stimulus” checks under the CARES Act, only 15 percent of those surveyed in a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study reported spending it. Thirty-three percent said they saved the payment, and 52 percent said they used the money to pay down debt.
Taken all together, these factors should spell an immense amount of deflationary pressure, both on the money supply, and ultimately on consumer prices as well.1
Central bankers, of course, recoil at the idea of deflation, and hate the idea of Americans saving money and putting actual loanable funds—backed by savings—into the financial system. Rather, the bankers insist we all take every dime we have and spend it on entertainment and on trinkets that are perhaps best called “future landfill.”
The fact that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) never fell to zero in the midst of all of this—and is now headed to 2 percent—shows central bankers’ power to inflate.
The conclusion that central bankers and vulgar Keynesians want us to draw from tepid growth in consumer prices is that since consumer price inflation is not remarkably high, then central banks have plenty of room to further inflate the money supply in pursuit of avoiding dreaded deflation.
Consider for example, how the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell, and other central bankers speak often of inflation targets and how they conclude more credit expansion is prudent and justified so long as price indices aren’t increasing beyond some arbitrarily set “correct” rate of around 2 percent.
“Hey, so long as consumer prices are rising, we have nothing to worry about,” is the general refrain. Thus, central bankers assure the public that central banks must have carte blanche to keep inflating the money supply through efforts to drive down interest rates and to directly inflate the money supply via asset purchases. In America, for example, the central bank has been monetizing the national debt since 2008. And since the covid crash, the Fed has begun monetizing even more than that as it began buying up corporate bonds in June. In spite of all of this, consumer price increases have not exactly skyrocketed upward—the lack of price inflation likely reflects just how much households have scaled back their spending.
But this doesn’t mean everything is okay. Here’s the rub: the extent to which we experience consumer price inflation isn’t really the measure of how much damage is being done by expansive monetary policy. Sure, price inflation tends to accompany money supply inflation, but it’s only one effect. Another effect—perhaps a more damaging one—is the fact that money supply inflation creates bubbles and malinvestment while also redistributing wealth in a political and inequitable way.
Consider asset price inflation. The Dow Jones has become completely divorced from the economic realities of American households as stock prices rally ever upward. And home prices, according to the Case-Shiller Index, have been heading toward new multiyear highs in recent months.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As Frank Shostak notes:
The emergence of a bubble or a monetary balloon need not be always associated with rising prices—for instance if the growth rate of goods corresponds to the growth rate of money supply, no change in prices will take place.
The real issue—one that’s hard to measure and which leads to sizable problems later, is malinvestment. Shostak continues:
What matters is not whether the emergence of a bubble is associated with price rises but rather the fact that the emergence of a bubble gives rise to nonproductive activities that divert real wealth from wealth generators.
These bubbles represent malinvestment. They are economic activities that would not have occurred—or at least not have occurred to the same degree—without the injection of new unbacked money into the economy. What’s more, they take resources that would have gone to other activities highly valued by consumers and investors, and instead direct them to suboptimal activities less valued.
We can already see the effects of this in the United States today. Although millions of small businesses sit on the brink of insolvency thanks to lockdowns and declines in consumer spending, the portfolios of Wall Street bankers and investors spiral upward. This is in part due to the central bank’s monetary policy. Thorsten Polleit has shown that movement in the stock market tends to follow money creation. Louis Rouanet explains how it works:
We can list four main reasons why the growth of financial markets is triggered by an expansion of the money supply: (1) because financial titles are often used as collateral in debt contracts; (2) because the anticipation of price-inflation, which is a common trait among all fiat money regimes, discourages the hoarding of money thus encouraging both the demand for and the supply of financial titles; (3) because the production of money through central banks is a matter of sheer human will and is therefore prone to developing moral-hazard in the financial world. This leads to an artificially high demand for financial titles and increases the supply of such titles by the same token. And (4) because the manipulation of credit by central banks and banks, by lowering the interest rate in the short run, particularly affects the demand for capital and the capital structure during the course of the business cycle. One of the most visible consequence[s] of this growth of financial markets triggered by monetary expansion is asset price inflation. In a completely sound money system where credit only depends on the amount of saving rather than on fiduciary credit, there is very little room for generalized and persistent asset-price inflation as the amount of funds which can be used to purchase assets is strictly limited. In other words, the phenomenon of asset-price inflation is a child of credit inflation.
We can see where this leads in terms of who comes out on top. People who are heavily invested in the financial sector will make a lot of money. Those who can’t afford to speculate in stocks will do less well. Those who own a lot of real estate will benefit. First-time homebuyers and renters will be largely out of luck. Moreover, those who directly benefit from government spending—such as government contractors, government employees, and beneficiaries of government lending programs—will do well. But those whose low income and lack of political influence doesn’t win them the benefits of cheap loans and government grants? They’re largely out of luck.
This represents an immense transfer of wealth from some groups to other groups. Most important, as Shostak notes, it is a transfer away from those enterprises most valued in a free market and toward those who benefit from central bank–fueled credit expansion and bubble economies. In our world today, this largely means a transfer of wealth from middle-class business owners, working-class laborers, and anyone who can’t afford to buy a large stake in the new bubble industries. The winners tend to be billionaires, investment bankers, and those who collect a government paycheck, whether they are ostensibly government employees or not.
And this can all happen even without high rates of consumer price inflation. If people are spending less, paying down debt, and saving for the future, we should expect to see deflation in prices at the consumer level. But that sort of deflation doesn’t mean there can’t be big-time growth in asset prices which are strategically positioned to benefit from the central bank’s easy money. In other words, even without obvious consumer price inflation, we’re still living in the midst of immense wealth transfer engineered by government technocrats for the benefit of those lucky enough to be anointed the “winners” by central bankers. An excessive focus on consumer price inflation may lead some to miss this.
1.If households pay off debt faster than new loans are made, the money supply would shrink, all else being equal.
Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken
Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Multi-Year Bull Run for Gold and the Financial State of the World is Crazy with Bob Hoye

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years .
The financial state of the world is totally insane .
The powers that be somehow believe that printing money will enable countries to avoid recessions and depressions .
It ’ s like believing that blood-letting will cure whatever ails you .
We ’ re now in the 19th recession since the inception of the Fed .
In addition to failing at its major responsibility , It ’ s been totally corrupted .
It ’ s primary mission has devolved into creating unlimited money to fund unlimited government .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ happened before .
He goes on to give an excellent historical perspective on the madness .
Ultimately , the power of the government is used to constrain the middle class .
Is there a difference now ?
Are we in for another Glorious Revolution ?
A bloodless revolution .
Check wikipedia and learn about the Glorious Revolution .
When authoritarianism arrives , freedom and prosperity always flee .
What ’ s next in the financial markets ?
You will find the answer is in the history of all great booms and busts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @

from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network
Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years. The financial state of the world is totally insane. The powers that be somehow believe that printing money will enable countries to avoid recessions and depressions. It’s like believing that blood-letting will cure whatever ails you. We’re now in the 19th recession since the inception of the Fed. In addition to failing at its major responsibility, It’s been totally corrupted. It’s primary mission has devolved into creating unlimited money to fund unlimited government. As Bob notes, this has all happened before. He goes on to give an excellent historical perspective on the madness. Ultimately, the power of the government is used to constrain the middle class. Is there a difference now? Are we in for another Glorious Revolution? A bloodless revolution. Check wikipedia and learn about the Glorious Revolution. When authoritarianism arrives, freedom and prosperity always flee. What’s next in the financial markets? You will find the answer is in the history of all great booms and busts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Find The Courage To Act

Find The Courage To Act

A few months ago I wrote Master The Art Of Doing Nothing , in which I argued that , while it may be the most difficult thing for an investor to do , the vast majority of the time an investor should simply do nothing at all .
Truly wonderful opportunities don ’ t come around very often but having the patience to wait for them is what separates the best investors on the planet from the rest .
However , it ’ s not only the waiting that is critical to success ; it is also the courage to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from being too active , another major mistake investors make is simply being too timid , or becoming too comfortable with doing nothing at all and this can be just as costly if not even more so .
As Warren Buffett has said , mistakes of omission , or failing to act , have cost him far more than mistakes of commission , or acting when he shouldn ’ t have .
As I wrote in Master The Art Of Doing Nothing , “ When it comes time to actually do something , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will know by the fact that it is such an attractive opportunity you would be foolish not to take advantage of it , ” and I have done my level best to describe the situation in energy and commodities as just such an opportunity .
Most investors , however , are either oblivious or are in some stage of disbelief .
“ When a truly terrific opportunity arises they are paralyzed by the fear of going it alone , without the comfort of the company of others , ala stocks in 2009 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 .
Or they just aren ’ t paying attention , ” is how I described it in that earlier piece .
Before energy ’ s recent rally , I suspect most were too fearful .
Now they either believe they missed it or that it ’ s just another false dawn .
But this is exactly what it feels like at the beginning of a major bull market .
Skepticism towards a rally is the healthiest sign you ’ ll find and the skepticism towards the rally in energy is so thick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The trick is learning to feel FOMO when you should feel it , when it feels like nobody else in the world could imagine feeling it , rather than allowing yourself to feel FOMO at a time when everyone else is actually feeling it .
To that latter point , everywhere you look there are signs of FOMO towards the broad stock market like we have never seen before .
As Jeremy Grantham told the Financial Times , “ There is as much craziness now as there was in late 1999 or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and for financial historians like me , exciting .
This is the real thing… It looked like we were in a bubble mode this summer , but the real craziness has come out in the last few months.
” Meanwhile , the energy sector is still priced as if it ’ s going out of business even though , as Steven Bregman recently put it , “ the imminent danger is not the collapse of fossil fuel use ; the imminent danger is an oil supply shortage and oil price shock.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve seen in my career .
Similarly , the bearish disconnect between prices and fundamentals for the broad stock market , largely driven by tech , is also unquestionably one of the largest I ’ ve ever seen .
However , there is no opportunity without these sort of disconnects so you might otherwise phrase it as these are two of the greatest opportunities I ’ ve seen in my career .
I would never claim that either one would be suitable for the faint of heart .
In fact , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the courage required to take advantage of it .
But for those with the courage ( and expertise ) to do so , the rewards could be spectacular .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by jessefelder
A few months ago I wrote Master The Art Of Doing Nothing, in which I argued that, while it may be the most difficult thing for an investor to do, the vast majority of the time an investor should simply do nothing at all. Truly wonderful opportunities don’t come around very often but having the patience to wait for them is what separates the best investors on the planet from the rest.
However, it’s not only the waiting that is critical to success; it is also the courage to act when the time arises. Aside from being too active, another major mistake investors make is simply being too timid, or becoming too comfortable with doing nothing at all and this can be just as costly if not even more so. As Warren Buffett has said, mistakes of omission, or failing to act, have cost him far more than mistakes of commission, or acting when he shouldn’t have.
As I wrote in Master The Art Of Doing Nothing, “When it comes time to actually do something, to put money to work, you will know by the fact that it is such an attractive opportunity you would be foolish not to take advantage of it,” and I have done my level best to describe the situation in energy and commodities as just such an opportunity.
Most investors, however, are either oblivious or are in some stage of disbelief. “When a truly terrific opportunity arises they are paralyzed by the fear of going it alone, without the comfort of the company of others, ala stocks in 2009, real estate in 2012 or gold in 2015. Or they just aren’t paying attention,” is how I described it in that earlier piece. Before energy’s recent rally, I suspect most were too fearful. Now they either believe they missed it or that it’s just another false dawn.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But this is exactly what it feels like at the beginning of a major bull market. Skepticism towards a rally is the healthiest sign you’ll find and the skepticism towards the rally in energy is so thick you could cut it with a knife. The trick is learning to feel FOMO when you should feel it, when it feels like nobody else in the world could imagine feeling it, rather than allowing yourself to feel FOMO at a time when everyone else is actually feeling it.
To that latter point, everywhere you look there are signs of FOMO towards the broad stock market like we have never seen before. As Jeremy Grantham told the Financial Times, “There is as much craziness now as there was in late 1999 or 1929. It is bewildering, impressive and for financial historians like me, exciting. This is the real thing… It looked like we were in a bubble mode this summer, but the real craziness has come out in the last few months.”
Meanwhile, the energy sector is still priced as if it’s going out of business even though, as Steven Bregman recently put it, “the imminent danger is not the collapse of fossil fuel use; the imminent danger is an oil supply shortage and oil price shock.” The bullish disconnect is one of the largest I’ve seen in my career. Similarly, the bearish disconnect between prices and fundamentals for the broad stock market, largely driven by tech, is also unquestionably one of the largest I’ve ever seen.
However, there is no opportunity without these sort of disconnects so you might otherwise phrase it as these are two of the greatest opportunities I’ve seen in my career. I would never claim that either one would be suitable for the faint of heart. In fact, the greater the disconnect, the greater the courage required to take advantage of it. But for those with the courage (and expertise) to do so, the rewards could be spectacular.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Fed Will Lose Control of Inflation

Fed Will Lose Control of Inflation

Tom welcomes Lyn Alden , Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher , back to the program .
Lyn discusses this economic downturn .
We ’ ve seen a rebound in some asset classes , but it will take most of 2021 to see all the effects play out .
We ’ ve seen a weaker dollar and slowing GDP growth globally .
By late 2021 the global economy should improve gradually .
She discusses the longer cycles around GDP and the dollar .
She discusses the book “ The Fourth Turning , ” in which there is a significant restructuring of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Debts get so high that there is a final rapid expansion of the money supply .
She explains the differences between monetary policy and fiscal policy .
Fiscal policy has more to do with government spending and taxation .
The key takeaway is that these two forms of policy begin to blend at the end of long debt cycles .
Several catalysts may drive inflation , and one of those will be commodity prices .
Most commodities today , including energy , are very cheap , but precious metals generally move before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bearish on the dollar over the next three to five years .
She says , “ The petrodollar system was based on the United States having forty percent of world GDP .
Expect to see a multi-polar system of currencies soon as the dollar system has become a bottleneck.
” She ’ s favorable to holding some foreign equities and commodities , including some digital assets .
Lyn holds silver as she expects it to outperform in the coming years .
She discusses the metrics that she uses to evaluate sectors .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term structural financial problems .
She has become bullish on Bitcoin because a large number of her earlier concerns have been addressed .
The recent sideways movement is likely healthy for Bitcoin .
Once it firmly breaks above $ 20k , there will be little in the way of resistance .
Time Stamp References : 0:00 – Introduction 0:34 – Recent Debt Cycle 2:41 – Fourth Turning Cycle 5:20 – Monetary Vs. Fiscal Policy 7:25 – Inflation & Commodities 10:24 – A Fraying Petrodollar 14:19 – Endgame Scenario 15:22 – Finding Opportunities 17:22 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gaining Silver Exposure 19:34 – Gold Exposure & Royalties 20:17 – Tools & Profit Taking 21:48 – Finding Value In Sectors 23:45 – Commodity Sector Value 25:12 – Bitcoin Fundamentals 30:03 – Wrap up

Lyn Alden on Palisades Gold Radio
Tom welcomes Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, back to the program.
Lyn discusses this economic downturn. We’ve seen a rebound in some asset classes, but it will take most of 2021 to see all the effects play out. We’ve seen a weaker dollar and slowing GDP growth globally. By late 2021 the global economy should improve gradually.
She discusses the longer cycles around GDP and the dollar. She discusses the book “The Fourth Turning,” in which there is a significant restructuring of debt, roughly every eighty years. Debts get so high that there is a final rapid expansion of the money supply.
She explains the differences between monetary policy and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy has more to do with government spending and taxation. The key takeaway is that these two forms of policy begin to blend at the end of long debt cycles.
Several catalysts may drive inflation, and one of those will be commodity prices. Most commodities today, including energy, are very cheap, but precious metals generally move before the rest of the sector.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
She is bearish on the dollar over the next three to five years. She says, “The petrodollar system was based on the United States having forty percent of world GDP. Expect to see a multi-polar system of currencies soon as the dollar system has become a bottleneck.” She’s favorable to holding some foreign equities and commodities, including some digital assets.
Lyn holds silver as she expects it to outperform in the coming years.
She discusses the metrics that she uses to evaluate sectors. She remains bullish on gold because of the long-term structural financial problems.
She has become bullish on Bitcoin because a large number of her earlier concerns have been addressed. The recent sideways movement is likely healthy for Bitcoin. Once it firmly breaks above $20k, there will be little in the way of resistance.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:34 – Recent Debt Cycle
2:41 – Fourth Turning Cycle
5:20 – Monetary Vs. Fiscal Policy
7:25 – Inflation & Commodities
10:24 – A Fraying Petrodollar
14:19 – Endgame Scenario
15:22 – Finding Opportunities
17:22 – Green Energy & Silver
18:33 – Gaining Silver Exposure
19:34 – Gold Exposure & Royalties
20:17 – Tools & Profit Taking
21:48 – Finding Value In Sectors
23:45 – Commodity Sector Value
25:12 – Bitcoin Fundamentals
30:03 – Wrap up


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Tulsi Introduced Bill to REPEAL Patriot Act

`` Those who would give up essential Liberty , to purchase a little temporary Safety , deserve neither Liberty nor @ @ @ @ @ @ RepThomasMassie & I intro 'd 'Protect Our Civil Liberties Act ' ( HR8970 ) @ @ @ @ @ Act & end illegal government surveillance pic.twitter.com/QEB8gKxFKu

Co-sponsored by Thomas Massie:
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." -Ben Franklin@RepThomasMassie & I intro'd 'Protect Our Civil Liberties Act' (HR8970) to repeal the so-called Patriot Act & end illegal government surveillance pic.twitter.com/QEB8gKxFKu
— Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 (@TulsiGabbard) December 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Are you really going to trust Pfizer?

Are you really going to trust Pfizer?

Here is the long list of individual cases and their details through Violation Tracker .
Here is the link to @ @ @ @ @ of Justice describing the largest case of healthcare fraud .
An added link about their @ @ @ @ @ .
They gave vaccines to children without their parents consent and were sued because 5 @ @ @ @ @ of Pfizer hasn ’ t taken Vaccine because he doesn ’ t want to ‘ @ @ @ @

by lboog423
Here is the long list of individual cases and their details through Violation Tracker.
violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/pfizer
Here is the link to the article from the Department of Justice describing the largest case of healthcare fraud.
www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-largest-health-care-fraud-settlement-its-history
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
An added link about their unethical vaccine testing in Nigeria. They gave vaccines to children without their parents consent and were sued because 5 children died thereafter.
www.theguardian.com/world/2011/aug/11/pfizer-nigeria-meningitis-drug-compensation
CEO of Pfizer hasn’t taken Vaccine because he doesn’t want to ‘Jump the line’
www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9051695/It-stretch-covid-vaccines-soon-Pfizer-CEO-says.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--What do you call it when a politician takes someone else’s money in taxes & gives it to someone who

What do you call it when a politician takes someone else’s money in taxes & gives it to someone who is more likely to vote for them?

This acceleration in M1 money supply in 2 weeks is the most aggressive in US history yet , even more @ @ @ @ @ of the crash in March .
Why now ?

Taxation is theft. We should have to pay as little in taxes as possible. Politicians that advocate for big government are just scammers. Bernie, AOC, etc… fake activists grifting people for their own personal gain.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Western_Expression_7


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Texas & 9 other U.S. states join the Justice Department and sue Google

JUST IN – Texas and nine other U.S. states join the Department of Justice and sue Google for abusing market @ @

JUST IN – Texas and nine other U.S. states join the Department of Justice and sue Google for abusing market power.
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Insurrection Act explained with added history.

( 2 ) The Insurrection Act is a Federal Law that allows POTUS to utilize the US Military , including @ @ @ @ @ States to suppress a perceived insurrection or rebellion .
Under the Posse Comitatus Act , @ @ @ @ @ reduced in it ’ s capacity to

(2) The Insurrection Act is a Federal Law that allows POTUS to utilize the US Military, including National Guard within the United States to suppress a perceived insurrection or rebellion.
Under the Posse Comitatus Act, the US Military is extremely reduced in it’s capacity to
— 🇺🇸⚔αвѕσℓυтє¢σηνι¢тιση⚔🇺🇸 (@Absolute1776) August 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--The market is very complacent right now and investor sentiment is bullish:

The US Treasury Market Is Facing A Train Wreck ( will T-bill rates will be negative for a significant period @ @

Ed Egilinsky, Direxion Managing Director & Head of Alternatives joins the Yahoo Finance Live panel to discuss the latest the stock market, the drop in retail sales and bitcoin.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--Did we lose Duck Duck Go to China?

Did we lose Duck Duck Go to China?

You can imagine how bad is google search if ddg is this way !
!

by fmorea
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You can imagine how bad is google search if ddg is this way!!


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--Jim Jordan – KEEP YOUR EYE ON THESE ELECTORS

Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio and Newsmax TV ’ s Greg Kelly discuss the timetable of truly certifying a presidential @ @ @ @ @ the steps along the way in which the Trump legal team can possibly turn results @ @ @ @ @ – via Greg Kelly Reports , weekdays at 7PM ET on Newsmax TV

Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio and Newsmax TV’s Greg Kelly discuss the timetable of truly certifying a presidential election conclusion, and all the steps along the way in which the Trump legal team can possibly turn results around in their favor. – via Greg Kelly Reports, weekdays at 7PM ET on Newsmax TV
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investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--Rep. Thomas Massie: ‘Done in the name of a virus with $1.200 checks as cheese in a trap’

“ This will be obvious in short order.
” The $ 1,200 was the minimum they needed to pay to @ @ @ @ @ human history to occur .

“This will be obvious in short order.”
The $1,200 was the minimum they needed to pay to allow the largest theft in human history to occur.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--Judicial Watch Obtains Emails Showing Impeachment Star Witness Warning about Burisma Corruption!

Judicial Watch announced recently that it received 210 pages of records from the State Department which show that former U.S @ @ @ @ @ “ Masha ” Yovanovitch had specifically warned in 2017 about corruption allegations against Burisma Holdings @ @ @ @ @ testimony in the impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump , Yovanovitch told lawmakers that she @ @ @ @ @ The records were obtained by Judicial Watch in response to a FOIA lawsuit filed in @ @ @ @ @ communications from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv mentioning Burisma ( Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department @ @ @ @ @ 1:20-cv-00229 ) ) .

Judicial Watch announced recently that it received 210 pages of records from the State Department which show that former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie “Masha” Yovanovitch had specifically warned in 2017 about corruption allegations against Burisma Holdings. During her November 2019 testimony in the impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump, Yovanovitch told lawmakers that she knew little about Burisma.
The records were obtained by Judicial Watch in response to a FOIA lawsuit filed in January 2020 seeking records of communications from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv mentioning Burisma (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of State (No. 1:20-cv-00229)).
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h/t Annie


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--The GBI agent reportedly assigned to Gov. Kemp’s daughter’s boyfriend’s mysterious fatal accident ha

The GBI agent reportedly assigned to Gov. Kemp’s daughter’s boyfriend’s mysterious fatal accident has committed suicide in Georgia.

Here is a photo of the crash that killed Harrison Deal at 21 years old in Georgia this month .
@ @ @ @ @ Kemp 's daughter .
He interned for Perdue , and was working on Loeffler 's @ @ @ @ @ 's daughter supposed to be in the car ?
pic.twitter.com/QiuxPJZQzV

Here is a photo of the crash that killed Harrison Deal at 21 years old in Georgia this month.
Harrison was dating Gov. Kemp's daughter. He interned for Perdue, and was working on Loeffler's staff.
Was the Governor's daughter supposed to be in the car? pic.twitter.com/QiuxPJZQzV
— Miss Michigan (@correctthemedia) December 17, 2020


OPERATION SNOWGLOBE

2/ administration against Hillary after she was elected. As it was later explained to him, “President Obama has his people across the federal bureaucracy at this point, but especially at the Department of Justice. Hillary Clinton is going to be President for 8 years and nothing — Murray 🇺🇸 (@Rothbard1776) December 15, 2020
4/ If Hillary is a “good girl” and defends Obamacare, that flame stays low. If she’s a “bad girl” and thinks for herself, that flame is going to get turned up high. That way Barack Obama is going to manage Hillary Clinton for the 8 years she’s President, and then — Murray 🇺🇸 (@Rothbard1776) December 15, 2020
6/ of it. Byrne stated there was an additional Hillary bribe prior to the one listed above, which was in the amount of $20M [involving the country of Turkey] and occurred in the fall, 2015. This shocking claim was made in an interview with @annvandersteel. 💥 — Murray 🇺🇸 (@Rothbard1776) December 15, 2020
This one starts to make a lot more sense. Can you imagine what they have on Joe Biden & Kamala Harris? The future of America is at stake. Do we want another 4-8 years of endless wars, lockdowns, insider deals, increased censorship by Big Tech & infringement of our 2A rights? t.co/wlIOuFXPvx — Murray 🇺🇸 (@Rothbard1776) December 15, 2020
h/t Nawt Meh Prezdunt
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investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--CHAZ/CHOP — The Winter Of “Love” Is Here — Merry Xmas Seattle

CHAZ/CHOP autonomous zone has been reestablished in Seattle Same beautiful architecture and decorations as the first zone Will this be @ @ @ @ @ ?
” pic.twitter.com/FhpyhS1t17

CHAZ/CHOP autonomous zone has been reestablished in Seattle
Same beautiful architecture and decorations as the first zone
Will this be a “winter of love?”
pic.twitter.com/FhpyhS1t17
— ELIJAH SCHAFFER (@ElijahSchaffer) December 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--Alabama Senator-Elect Tommy Tuberville now stated that he will be challenging the election results i

He ’ s now directly confirmed it will happen .
New Congress will be sworn in on Jan 3rd .
@ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t there , do we really know ?
We don ’ t .
@ @ @ @ @ Tuberville now stated that he will be challenging the election results in the Senate on @ @ @ @ @ with the House members .
With this news , the election will officially be contested @ @ @ @ @ # ThisElectionIsNotOver

He’s now directly confirmed it will happen.
New Congress will be sworn in on Jan 3rd. For those that say votes aren’t there, do we really know? We don’t.
BREAKING: Alabama Senator-Elect Tommy Tuberville now stated that he will be challenging the election results in the Senate on January 6th, joining in with the House members.
With this news, the election will officially be contested in the House & Senate.#ThisElectionIsNotOver
— SteelKRAKEN! Ann Vandersteel (@annvandersteel) December 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--In 1929, people bought stocks on leverage putting down $ for 1 stock in order to buy 4. Today, we ha

In 1929, people bought stocks on leverage putting down $ for 1 stock in order to buy 4. Today, we have the govt. sending checks to people that some are using to 10x leverage against the market via short dated options for a market that “can’t lose.” Eventually, this ends badly.

In 1929, people bought stocks on leverage putting down $ for 1 stock in order to buy 4. Today, we have the govt. sending checks to people that some are using to 10x leverage against the market via short dated options for a market that "can't lose." Eventually, this ends badly. — John Tuld – Wealth Inequality Detector (@BradHuston) December 17, 2020
1636: Tulip prices only go up 2020: pic.twitter.com/Y7GhrhX9ki — StockCats (@StockCats) December 17, 2020
What's the old saying…"Stimulus hopes can remain elevated longer than you can remain solvent" pic.twitter.com/3ZNrSkOxPk — Hipster (@Hipster_Trader) December 17, 2020
This is the biggest speculative mania in the history of the world. Absolutely nothing could ever justify many of these stock valuations. It's all one giant greater fool ponzi confidence game being run by the Fed. It will end in a disastrous collapse one way or the other. — EndTheFed.org (@EndTheFed_org) December 17, 2020
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled it convince people that valuations don’t matter. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) December 17, 2020
Quite something to see people cheer the destruction of their currency and purchasing power.
In real USD terms markets gains may not be what they're cracked up to be.
But hey, everything is relative these days. pic.twitter.com/MvbIbnrXOn — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) December 17, 2020
prediction: when they finally pass this stimulus deal, they will proclaim there will be additional stimulus in the future pic.twitter.com/99lgyrI8dU — StockCats (@StockCats) December 17, 2020
"Investors wanted a little bit more from the fed. Maybe an unemployment benchmark they would hit before they took their foot off the pedal of QE. They wanted longer maturity purchases. Even a hint that we will increase the size of QE. "#CharlesPaynet.co/9d2EVv7rzR — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) December 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Mannarino: The Fed Begins A NEW FRANKENSTEIN PHASE And Stocks Hit Record Highs

Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the @ @ @ @ @ that working on Wall Street was not like the movies , he moved on to @ @ @ @ @ practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant .
He also served in the United States Naval @ @ @ @ @ having attained the rank of Lieutenant .
He is an active trader of the capital @ @ @ @ @ books pertaining to finance , global economics , and equity trading .
Gregory currently hosts @ @ @ @ @ ” on YouTube .
You can find out more about what he offers at his @ @ @

TradersChoice.net, Released on 12/16/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. After realizing that working on Wall Street was not like the movies, he moved on to get a medical degree and practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant. He also served in the United States Naval Reserve Medical Service Corps, having attained the rank of Lieutenant. He is an active trader of the capital markets and has published several books pertaining to finance, global economics, and equity trading. Gregory currently hosts a business day “MarketReport” on YouTube. You can find out more about what he offers at his website Traderschoice.net.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--BIG TECH ON BIG TECH:

BIG TECH ON BIG TECH:

Facebook criticizes Apple ’ s iOS privacy changes with full-page newspaper ads .
“ Developers will need to ask iOS @ @ @ @ @ gather data and track them across mobile apps and websites on an iPhone and iPad @ @ @ @ @ to implement these changes with the initial iOS 14 release in September , but delayed @ @ @ @ @ year .
These changes will impact Facebook ’ s ad business , and in particular @ @ @ @ @ and businesses , as end users are more likely to opt out of tracking prompts.
@ @ @ @ @ just-released iOS 14.3 , end-users must opt in to app tracking .
Apps can ’ @ @ @ @ @ to use tracking unless this new switch is set to on , and it ’ @ @ @ @ @ default .
Apple ’ s motivation might be less about consumer privacy than it is @ @ @ @ @ , but they have enhanced consumer privacy .

Facebook criticizes Apple’s iOS privacy changes with full-page newspaper ads. “Developers will need to ask iOS 14 users for permission to gather data and track them across mobile apps and websites on an iPhone and iPad soon. Apple had planned to implement these changes with the initial iOS 14 release in September, but delayed enforcing them until early next year. These changes will impact Facebook’s ad business, and in particular its ad network for developers and businesses, as end users are more likely to opt out of tracking prompts.”
Actually, in the just-released iOS 14.3, end-users must opt in to app tracking.
Apps can’t even ask for permission to use tracking unless this new switch is set to on, and it’s set to off by default.
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Apple’s motivation might be less about consumer privacy than it is about denying revenue to Facebook, but they have enhanced consumer privacy.
h/t SG


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Trump is ready with a $2 trillion jolt for China as a ruthless delisting of Chinese companies begins

The US legislature recently passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act with bipartisan support .
Now , the US President @ @ @ @ @ legislation .

The US legislature recently passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act with bipartisan support. Now, the US President is expected to sign this legislation.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--This is why they moved Barr out of the way and brought a new one in.

The Executive Order Actually Ends on January 20th It means 45 days after receiving the REPORT .
b ) Within 45 days of receiving the assessment and information described in section 1 ( a ) of this order , the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security , in consultation with the heads of any other appropriate agencies and , as appropriate , State and local officials , shall deliver to the President , the Secretary of State , the Secretary of the Treasury , and the Secretary of Defense a report evaluating , with respect to the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the assessment described in section 1 ( a ) : ( i ) the extent to which any foreign interference that targeted election infrastructure materially affected the security or integrity of that infrastructure , the tabulation of votes , or the timely transmission of election results ; and ( ii ) if any foreign interference involved activities targeting the infrastructure of , or pertaining to , a political organization , campaign , or candidate , the extent to which such activities materially affected the security or integrity of that infrastructure , including by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disclosure of , or alteration or falsification of , information or data .
The report shall identify any material issues of fact with respect to these matters that the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security are unable to evaluate or reach agreement on at the time the report is submitted .
The report shall also include updates and recommendations , when appropriate , regarding remedial actions to be taken by the United States Government , other than the sanctions described in sections 2 and 3 of this order .

The Executive Order Actually Ends on January 20th
Executive Order
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-imposing-certain-sanctions-event-foreign-interference-united-states-election/
It means 45 days after receiving the REPORT.
b) Within 45 days of receiving the assessment and information described in section 1(a) of this order, the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the heads of any other appropriate agencies and, as appropriate, State and local officials, shall deliver to the President, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Secretary of Defense a report evaluating, with respect to the United States election that is the subject of the assessment described in section 1(a):
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(i) the extent to which any foreign interference that targeted election infrastructure materially affected the security or integrity of that infrastructure, the tabulation of votes, or the timely transmission of election results; and
(ii) if any foreign interference involved activities targeting the infrastructure of, or pertaining to, a political organization, campaign, or candidate, the extent to which such activities materially affected the security or integrity of that infrastructure, including by unauthorized access to, disclosure or threatened disclosure of, or alteration or falsification of, information or data.
The report shall identify any material issues of fact with respect to these matters that the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security are unable to evaluate or reach agreement on at the time the report is submitted. The report shall also include updates and recommendations, when appropriate, regarding remedial actions to be taken by the United States Government, other than the sanctions described in sections 2 and 3 of this order.
h/t Alpacalips


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--French President Macron tested positive for COVID19

Why no other president who were Time person of the year earlier shown with their Vice President ?

French President Emmanuel Macron tests positive for Covid-19 after showing symptoms and will isolate t.co/Q7n9i6BTCF
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--US Money Supply Was Up 37 Percent in November

The central bank continues to engage in a wide variety of unprecedented efforts to “ stimulate ” the economy and provide income to… In November , money supply growth rate was essentially unchanged from October and remains near September ’ s all-time high .
The stabilization we find in money-supply growth in recent months comes after eight months of record-breaking growth in the US which came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing , central bank asset purchases , and various stimulus packages .
Historically , the growth rate has never been higher than what we ’ ve seen this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only period that comes close .
It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months .
This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis .
But it appears that now the United States is several months into an extended economic crisis , with around 1 million new jobless claims each week from March until mid-September .
More than 5 million unemployed workers are currently collecting standard unemployment benefits , with 8 million more collecting “ Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation ” as of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to engage in a wide variety of unprecedented efforts to “ stimulate ” the economy and provide income to unemployed workers and to provide liquidity to financial institutions .
Moreover , as government revenues have fallen considerably , Congress has turned to unprecedented amounts of borrowing .
But in order to keep interest rates low , the Fed has been buying up trillions of dollars in assets—including government debt .
This has fueled new money creation .
During November 2020 , year-over-year ( YOY ) growth in the money supply was at 37.08 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ October ’ s rate , and up from November 2019 ’ s rate of 5.9 percent .
Historically this is a very large surge in growth , year over year .
It is also quite a reversal from the trend that only just ended in August of last year , when growth rates were nearly bottoming out around 2 percent .
In August 2019 , the growth rate hit a 120-month low , falling to the lowest growth rates we ’ d seen since 2007 .
The money supply metric used here—the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( TMS ) —is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno , and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2 .
The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth .
This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed ( and excludes short-time deposits , traveler ’ s checks , and retail money funds ) .
The M2 growth rate reached new historic highs in November , growing 25.07 percent compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24.17 percent .
M2 grew 7.06 percent during November of last year .
The M2 growth rate had fallen considerably from late 2016 to late 2018 but has been growing again in recent months .
As of March , it is following a trend similar to that of TMS , but to a lesser degree .
Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity .
During periods of economic boom , money supply tends to grow quickly as banks make more loans .
Recessions , on the other hand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of slowdown in rates of money supply growth .
However , money supply growth tends to grow out of its low-growth trough well before the onset of recession .
As recession nears , the TMS growth rate climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate .
This occurred in the early months of the 2002 and the 2009 crises .
February 2020 was the first month since late 2008 that the TMS growth rate climbed higher than the M2 growth rate .
The TMS growth rate has exceeded M2 in most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it does appear that the decline in money supply growth has again preceded a recession , and a severe one at that .
Both the second and third quarters showed negative growth in real GDP this year .
The second quarter this year fell 9 percent , year over year , and the third quarter was down 2.9 percent , year over year .
Although some observers will likely claim that the current economic crisis is a result solely of the covid-19 panic and resulting government-forced shutdowns , several indicators do suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recession .
The preceding decline in TMS is one of these indicators , as is the late 2019 liquidity crisis in the repo markets .
The Fed ’ s moves to drop interest rates and to once again grow its balance sheet speak to the weakness of the economy leading up to April 2020 .
Moreover , global trade contracted in 2019 for the first time since the Great Recession , suggesting the world economy was heading toward some form of contraction .
After initial balance sheet growth in late 2019 , total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion in June and have rarely dipped below the $ 7 trillion mark since then .
As of late November , total assets are again pushing above $ 7.2 trillion .
These new asset purchases have set a new all-time high and are propelling the Fed balance sheet far beyond anything seen during the Great Recession ’ s stimulus packages .
The Fed ’ s assets are now up more than 600 percent from the period immediately preceding the 2008 financial crisis .
While Fed asset purchases are not solely responsible for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are certainly a sizable factor .
As expected , bank loan activity has surged as well , also driving new money creation .
Below is the dollar volume for M2 and TMS : In terms of total dollar amounts now extant , the overall M2 total money supply in November was $ 19.0 trillion and the TMS total was $ 19.3 trillion .
Since January , this is an increase of $ 3.6 trillion in M2 and $ 5.0 trillion in the TMS .
Moreover , for the past five months , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it has grown to become larger than the M2 total .
This is largely being fueled by the immense growth in US Treasury deposits at the Fed , which are factored into TMS , but not M2 .
Treasury deposits ballooned from $ 375 billion in March to an unprecedented $ 1.7 trillion in July .
By November , Treasury deposits had fallen slightly to $ 1.5 trillion , but remained near record-breaking levels .
Author : Ryan McMaken ( @ ryanmcmaken ) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute .
Send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wire and The Austrian , but read article guidelines first .
Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado .
He is the author of Commie Cowboys : The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre .

The central bank continues to engage in a wide variety of unprecedented efforts to “stimulate” the economy and provide income to…
by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
In November, money supply growth rate was essentially unchanged from October and remains near September’s all-time high. The stabilization we find in money-supply growth in recent months comes after eight months of record-breaking growth in the US which came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages.
Historically, the growth rate has never been higher than what we’ve seen this year, with the 1970s being the only period that comes close. It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months. This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis. But it appears that now the United States is several months into an extended economic crisis, with around 1 million new jobless claims each week from March until mid-September. More than 5 million unemployed workers are currently collecting standard unemployment benefits, with 8 million more collecting “Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation” as of late November.
The central bank continues to engage in a wide variety of unprecedented efforts to “stimulate” the economy and provide income to unemployed workers and to provide liquidity to financial institutions. Moreover, as government revenues have fallen considerably, Congress has turned to unprecedented amounts of borrowing. But in order to keep interest rates low, the Fed has been buying up trillions of dollars in assets—including government debt. This has fueled new money creation.
During November 2020, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at 37.08 percent. That’s unchanged from October’s rate, and up from November 2019’s rate of 5.9 percent. Historically this is a very large surge in growth, year over year. It is also quite a reversal from the trend that only just ended in August of last year, when growth rates were nearly bottoming out around 2 percent. In August 2019, the growth rate hit a 120-month low, falling to the lowest growth rates we’d seen since 2007.
The money supply metric used here—the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth. This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits, traveler’s checks, and retail money funds).
The M2 growth rate reached new historic highs in November, growing 25.07 percent compared to October’s growth rate of 24.17 percent. M2 grew 7.06 percent during November of last year. The M2 growth rate had fallen considerably from late 2016 to late 2018 but has been growing again in recent months. As of March, it is following a trend similar to that of TMS, but to a lesser degree.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by periods of slowdown in rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to grow out of its low-growth trough well before the onset of recession. As recession nears, the TMS growth rate climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate. This occurred in the early months of the 2002 and the 2009 crises. February 2020 was the first month since late 2008 that the TMS growth rate climbed higher than the M2 growth rate. The TMS growth rate has exceeded M2 in most of this year. As the year progresses, it does appear that the decline in money supply growth has again preceded a recession, and a severe one at that. Both the second and third quarters showed negative growth in real GDP this year. The second quarter this year fell 9 percent, year over year, and the third quarter was down 2.9 percent, year over year.
Although some observers will likely claim that the current economic crisis is a result solely of the covid-19 panic and resulting government-forced shutdowns, several indicators do suggest that the economy was primed for a recession. The preceding decline in TMS is one of these indicators, as is the late 2019 liquidity crisis in the repo markets. The Fed’s moves to drop interest rates and to once again grow its balance sheet speak to the weakness of the economy leading up to April 2020. Moreover, global trade contracted in 2019 for the first time since the Great Recession, suggesting the world economy was heading toward some form of contraction.
After initial balance sheet growth in late 2019, total Fed assets surged to nearly $7.2 trillion in June and have rarely dipped below the $7 trillion mark since then. As of late November, total assets are again pushing above $7.2 trillion. These new asset purchases have set a new all-time high and are propelling the Fed balance sheet far beyond anything seen during the Great Recession’s stimulus packages. The Fed’s assets are now up more than 600 percent from the period immediately preceding the 2008 financial crisis.
While Fed asset purchases are not solely responsible for the surge in new money creation, they are certainly a sizable factor. As expected, bank loan activity has surged as well, also driving new money creation.
Below is the dollar volume for M2 and TMS:
In terms of total dollar amounts now extant, the overall M2 total money supply in November was $19.0 trillion and the TMS total was $19.3 trillion. Since January, this is an increase of $3.6 trillion in M2 and $5.0 trillion in the TMS. Moreover, for the past five months, the TMS total has done something new: it has grown to become larger than the M2 total. This is largely being fueled by the immense growth in US Treasury deposits at the Fed, which are factored into TMS, but not M2. Treasury deposits ballooned from $375 billion in March to an unprecedented $1.7 trillion in July. By November, Treasury deposits had fallen slightly to $1.5 trillion, but remained near record-breaking levels. Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken
Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Send him your article submissions for the Mises Wire and The Austrian, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Worried About Taxes? Consider These Ideas.

If you ’ re worried about taxes ( and who isn ’ t ? )
, consider these ideas for 2020 and beyond .
Daily , I communicate with professionals , mentors , and people who inspire me .
Every year my tax specialist , who prefers to remain anonymous , shares an informative newsletter with friends and clients .
She ’ s a master at her craft , and I ’ m fortunate to be able to tap her expertise .
Below are several of her reminders I selected for RIA readers because who isn ’ t worried about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic Tax Policy Themes For ‘ High Incomers.
’ The Tax Policy Center estimates the proposed Biden Administration tax increases would raise roughly $ 3 trillion over the next decade , so ‘ High incomers ’ should pay attention to the following proposals : • Cap the tax benefit of itemized deductions for high incomers to 28 % .
• Restore the 3 % ( Pease ) limitation on itemized deductions if income > $ 400,000 .
• Increase capital gains rates imposed on ultra-high incomes ( over $ 1MM ) ( 23.8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gains taxed at ordinary income rates .
• Increase dividend tax rates to equal all other types of ordinary income for ultra-high incomers .
Rosso ’ s take : I ’ m not sure how ‘ high incomers ’ are determined .
During the Obama administration , a high-income earner was determined to have a taxable income of $ 250,000 or greater .
To me , it ’ s all an arbitrary shot in the dark .
‘ High incomers ’ are likely business owners with employees .
Increased taxes on the group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultimately trickle-down negatively to employees .
Another proposal to have capital gains taxed at ordinary income rates can stifle entrepreneurial pursuits because lower tax rates are a great incentive to take on business risks .
Investors are rethinking strategies to transfer appreciated assets to loved ones because of Mr. Biden ’ s proposal to remove the stepped-up basis on appreciated assets .
This change can negatively affect the middle as well as upper-class households .
Personally , I don ’ t believe that payroll taxes ( 12.4 % ) on wages of $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taxes support Social Security ( at least I know where the money goes ) .
Close to 20 % of older Americans depend on it as their only source of income .
The pandemic ’ s impact on payrolls could potentially jeopardize the Social Security system , and raising payroll taxes on higher earners would ensure the program ’ s viability for all of us .
A Wharton study from May 28 , 2020 – “ The Impact of the Coronavirus on Social Security ’ s Finances , ” employs the Penn Wharton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on retirement benefits .
Depending on economic and payroll recovery , the Social Security Trust Fund runs the risk of depletion two to three years sooner than 2035 .
Frankly , the vision of a future of sustained economic recovery ( not stock market recovery , which has decoupled from economic conditions ) is muddy at best .
Social Security has required attention before the pandemic , and the urgency to shore it up has increased because of the drop in payrolls .
Be assured the program won ’ t disappear because it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits to survive .
According to the National Academy of Social Insurance , roughly 61 million people collect Social Security benefits each month , and they account for about one in five people in the United States .
In about one family in four , someone is receiving Social Security benefits .
Remember , Social Security is primarily funded through payroll taxes , so any initiatives that improve economic recovery will positively impact payroll growth .
Next year , the maximum earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax increases by $ 5,100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Themes For The Masses : • The increase of child and dependent tax credits from $ 6,000 to $ 8,000 .
• A new credit for people who provide long-term care to their elderly relatives .
• An expansion of the PP loan program and tax breaks to help employers provide a safe workplace .
The new administration should prohibit access to retirement accounts penalty-free for first-time homebuyers if a tax credit is on the table .
Furthermore , caregivers suffer severe economic consequences , so I think it ’ s about time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term care to loved ones .
• Maximize 2020 retirement plan contributions at least up to the employer match .
• 2020 may be the perfect time for .
Substitute a partial Roth conversion in place of a traditional IRA distribution in 2020 pay taxes from other personal assets .
• Your adult children will be much happier in the long run to inherit a Roth .
• To count as a 2020 Roth conversion , the funds must leave the IRA or company plan before December 31 , 2020 .
Rosso ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Roth discussions this year .
As blog readers know , our planners advocate for Roth conversions because of the likelihood of higher taxes in the future .
Interesting how the strategy is now in vogue with mainstream financial media .
Think Diversification Of Accounts AND Diversification Of Assets !
At RIA , we teach the importance of ‘ diversification of accounts ’ whereby a retiree maintains greater distribution flexibility and lifetime control over tax liabilities .
Recently , a client requested $ 50,000 to pay off his mortgage .
Due to account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from his pre-tax rollover IRA , $ 10,000 from a Roth conversion IRA and the remainder from an after-tax brokerage account .
A smart portfolio distribution strategy gave him the freedom to make a large withdrawal with minimal tax impact !
So , two common flavors of Roth are contributory and conversion .
It ’ s common for people to confuse the two .
So , let ’ s start with the smarter , more dashing sibling of the traditional IRA : The contributory Roth IRA .
Roth accounts overall offer tax-deferred growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Currently , the annual contribution limit per individual is $ 6,000 ; $ 7,000 for individuals 50 or older .
These limits apply to 2021 , too—unfortunately , Roth IRA contribution levels phase-out based on household adjusted gross income .
For example , married filing jointly with modified adjusted gross income less than $ 196,000 may contribute the maximum .
Married couples with MAGIs of $ 206,000 and greater can not contribute to Roth IRAs .
Based on the generous AGI phaseout levels ( $ 196,000 but < $ 206,000 can contribute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be able to fund Roth IRAs .
As a reminder , Roth IRAs fund with after-tax dollars .
After a five-year period , which begins January 1st of the year a contribution is made , earnings may be distributed 100 % tax-free if younger than 59 1/2 , a 10 % premature distribution penalty applies to withdrawn earnings .
Participants may withdraw after-tax contributions at any time without taxes or penalties .
Moreover , the five-year waiting period for earnings shouldn ’ t be an obstacle if the Roth is indeed invested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not subject to required minimum distribution rules .
Furthermore , Roth withdrawals don ’ t count in the provisional income formula used to tax Social Security ; distributions will not add to income that may generate Medicare IRMAA surcharges .
People ask me about Roth ’ s viability in light of massive federal government deficits and stimulus programs to come .
Frankly , I ’ m not concerned about the government changing the tax-free status of Roth .
Why ?
They ’ re like J.G .
Wentworth !
And the government needs cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how political parties may consider tax-deferred account balances as fatted calves – all too tempting not to bring to eventual tax slaughter .
The Feds removed the $ 100,000 AGI ceiling on Roth conversions years ago to allow traditional IRA owners to convert to Roth without limitation ( J.G Wentworth ! )
.
Let ’ s consider a ‘ young ’ retiree , 57 years old , with a five-year plan to convert his rollover IRA to Roth .
His goal is to distribute enough funds every year to maximize the 22 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retirement joint life expectancy , we calculated that his strategy has the potential to increase his lifetime withdrawals and legacy plan by an impressive $ 871,466 .
A Roth conversion plan not only reduces his lifetime tax liability but it also helps our retiree gain tax control otherwise lost to required minimum distributions at age 72 .
Years ago , this retiree and I worked together to allocate investment dollars to an after-tax brokerage account , which came in handy to pay taxes on his Roth conversion , thus allowing 100 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Having the tax money available from an outside source instead of withheld from the traditional IRA also avoids the 10 % premature distribution penalty .
Due to the SECURE Act , it is now mandatory for non-spouse IRA beneficiaries ( your adult children ) to accelerate distributions over ten years from your date of death .
At least in a Roth , required withdrawals are 100 % tax-free and less painful for heirs !
See ?
Your children will love it ( although I ’ m sure they ’ ll be unfortunate that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ideas To Consider Before Year-end .
Maximize a Health Savings Account .
Maximize contributions to an HSA ( if available to you ) .
HSA contributions are tax-free , allocated among mutual funds , appreciate tax-deferred , and ultimately distributed tax-free for qualified healthcare expenses .
The self-only coverage contribution for 2020 is $ 3,550 , $ 7,100 for family coverage .
If 55 or older , add another $ 1,000 as a catch-up contribution .
Limits for 2021 : $ 3,600 self , $ 7,200 family .
Spend down your Flexible Spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a plan to liquidate your FSA by year-end ?
Flexible Spending Accounts allow for tax-free distributions for the purchase of qualified healthcare products and services .
An FSA Carryover Rule exists whereby up to a $ 500 account balance may be carried over early in the new year .
However , not every plan provides this option .
In conclusion , check with your employer ’ s benefits department as soon as possible .
A qualified tax professional is worth his or her weight in gold , and I ’ m fortunate to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an eye out for an upcoming allegiance between RIA Advisors and a team of dynamic tax specialists designated to help you make sense of tax implications in the new year and beyond !

by Richard Rosso
If you’re worried about taxes (and who isn’t?), consider these ideas for 2020 and beyond.
Daily, I communicate with professionals, mentors, and people who inspire me. Every year my tax specialist, who prefers to remain anonymous, shares an informative newsletter with friends and clients. She’s a master at her craft, and I’m fortunate to be able to tap her expertise.
Below are several of her reminders I selected for RIA readers because who isn’t worried about taxes?
Keep In Mind The Following Democratic Tax Policy Themes For ‘High Incomers.’
The Tax Policy Center estimates the proposed Biden Administration tax increases would raise roughly $3 trillion over the next decade, so ‘High incomers’ should pay attention to the following proposals:
A 6% tax rate increase for taxable income > $400,000—defined as “high incomers.”
Cap the tax benefit of itemized deductions for high incomers to 28%.
Restore the 3% (Pease) limitation on itemized deductions if income > $400,000.
Additional payroll taxes (FICA) for high incomers—unlimited wage base >$400,000.
Increase capital gains rates imposed on ultra-high incomes (over $1MM) (23.8% to 39.6% shift or cap gains taxed at ordinary income rates.
Increase dividend tax rates to equal all other types of ordinary income for ultra-high incomers.
Rosso’s take: I’m not sure how ‘high incomers’ are determined. During the Obama administration, a high-income earner was determined to have a taxable income of $250,000 or greater. To me, it’s all an arbitrary shot in the dark.
‘High incomers’ are likely business owners with employees. Increased taxes on the group may lead to stifled economic growth and ultimately trickle-down negatively to employees. Another proposal to have capital gains taxed at ordinary income rates can stifle entrepreneurial pursuits because lower tax rates are a great incentive to take on business risks.
Investors are rethinking strategies to transfer appreciated assets to loved ones because of Mr. Biden’s proposal to remove the stepped-up basis on appreciated assets. This change can negatively affect the middle as well as upper-class households.
The Payroll Tax Isn’t All Bad.
Personally, I don’t believe that payroll taxes (12.4%) on wages of $400,000 or greater is harmful because payroll taxes support Social Security (at least I know where the money goes). Close to 20% of older Americans depend on it as their only source of income. The pandemic’s impact on payrolls could potentially jeopardize the Social Security system, and raising payroll taxes on higher earners would ensure the program’s viability for all of us.
A Wharton study from May 28, 2020 – “The Impact of the Coronavirus on Social Security’s Finances,” employs the Penn Wharton Budget Model to analyze possible pandemic effects on retirement benefits.
Hastened Depletion Of The Social Security Trust Fund.
Depending on economic and payroll recovery, the Social Security Trust Fund runs the risk of depletion two to three years sooner than 2035.
Frankly, the vision of a future of sustained economic recovery (not stock market recovery, which has decoupled from economic conditions) is muddy at best. Social Security has required attention before the pandemic, and the urgency to shore it up has increased because of the drop in payrolls.
Be assured the program won’t disappear because it can’t. Many Americans require benefits to survive. According to the National Academy of Social Insurance, roughly 61 million people collect Social Security benefits each month, and they account for about one in five people in the United States. In about one family in four, someone is receiving Social Security benefits.
Remember, Social Security is primarily funded through payroll taxes, so any initiatives that improve economic recovery will positively impact payroll growth. Next year, the maximum earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax increases by $5,100 to $142,800.
The Democratic Tax Themes For The Masses:
Addition of a first-time homebuyers tax credit.
The increase of child and dependent tax credits from $6,000 to $8,000.
A new credit for people who provide long-term care to their elderly relatives.
An expansion of the PP loan program and tax breaks to help employers provide a safe workplace.
The new administration should prohibit access to retirement accounts penalty-free for first-time homebuyers if a tax credit is on the table. Furthermore, caregivers suffer severe economic consequences, so I think it’s about time we recognize those who sacrifice to provide long-term care to loved ones.
Important Retirement Funding Considerations.
Maximize 2020 retirement plan contributions at least up to the employer match.
2020 may be the perfect time for Roth conversion . Substitute a partial Roth conversion in place of a traditional IRA distribution in 2020 and pay taxes from other personal assets.
Substitute a partial Roth conversion in place of a traditional IRA distribution in 2020 pay taxes from other personal assets. Your adult children will be much happier in the long run to inherit a Roth.
To count as a 2020 Roth conversion, the funds must leave the IRA or company plan before December 31, 2020.
Rosso’s take: We are having plenty of Roth discussions this year. As blog readers know, our planners advocate for Roth conversions because of the likelihood of higher taxes in the future. Interesting how the strategy is now in vogue with mainstream financial media.
Think Diversification Of Accounts AND Diversification Of Assets!
At RIA, we teach the importance of ‘diversification of accounts’ whereby a retiree maintains greater distribution flexibility and lifetime control over tax liabilities.
Recently, a client requested $50,000 to pay off his mortgage. Due to account diversification, he could withdraw $20,000 from his pre-tax rollover IRA, $10,000 from a Roth conversion IRA and the remainder from an after-tax brokerage account. A smart portfolio distribution strategy gave him the freedom to make a large withdrawal with minimal tax impact!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Maximize Annual Contributions To ROTH IRAs For 2020.
So, two common flavors of Roth are contributory and conversion. It’s common for people to confuse the two. So, let’s start with the smarter, more dashing sibling of the traditional IRA: The contributory Roth IRA. Roth accounts overall offer tax-deferred growth and, most important: Tax-free withdrawals.
Currently, the annual contribution limit per individual is $6,000; $7,000 for individuals 50 or older. These limits apply to 2021, too—unfortunately, Roth IRA contribution levels phase-out based on household adjusted gross income.
For example, married filing jointly with modified adjusted gross income less than $196,000 may contribute the maximum. Married couples with MAGIs of $206,000 and greater cannot contribute to Roth IRAs. Based on the generous AGI phaseout levels ( > $196,000 but < $206,000 can contribute reduced amounts), most wage earners should be able to fund Roth IRAs.
As a reminder, Roth IRAs fund with after-tax dollars. After a five-year period, which begins January 1st of the year a contribution is made, earnings may be distributed 100% tax-free if younger than 59 1/2, a 10% premature distribution penalty applies to withdrawn earnings.
Participants may withdraw after-tax contributions at any time without taxes or penalties. Moreover, the five-year waiting period for earnings shouldn’t be an obstacle if the Roth is indeed invested for retirement.
Roth Benefits Outlined.
A Roth IRA is not subject to required minimum distribution rules. Furthermore, Roth withdrawals don’t count in the provisional income formula used to tax Social Security; distributions will not add to income that may generate Medicare IRMAA surcharges.
Consider Annual Surgical ROTH Conversions.
People ask me about Roth’s viability in light of massive federal government deficits and stimulus programs to come. Frankly, I’m not concerned about the government changing the tax-free status of Roth.
Why? They’re like J.G. Wentworth! And the government needs cash now! I’m more concerned about how political parties may consider tax-deferred account balances as fatted calves – all too tempting not to bring to eventual tax slaughter.
The Feds removed the $100,000 AGI ceiling on Roth conversions years ago to allow traditional IRA owners to convert to Roth without limitation (J.G Wentworth!).
A Real-life Example.
Let’s consider a ‘young’ retiree, 57 years old, with a five-year plan to convert his rollover IRA to Roth. His goal is to distribute enough funds every year to maximize the 22% tax bracket. Utilizing a 37-year retirement joint life expectancy, we calculated that his strategy has the potential to increase his lifetime withdrawals and legacy plan by an impressive $871,466.
A Roth conversion plan not only reduces his lifetime tax liability but it also helps our retiree gain tax control otherwise lost to required minimum distributions at age 72.
Years ago, this retiree and I worked together to allocate investment dollars to an after-tax brokerage account, which came in handy to pay taxes on his Roth conversion, thus allowing 100% of his IRA dollars directed into Roth. Having the tax money available from an outside source instead of withheld from the traditional IRA also avoids the 10% premature distribution penalty.
Due to the SECURE Act, it is now mandatory for non-spouse IRA beneficiaries (your adult children) to accelerate distributions over ten years from your date of death. At least in a Roth, required withdrawals are 100% tax-free and less painful for heirs! See? Your children will love it (although I’m sure they’ll be unfortunate that you’re gone).
Other Ideas To Consider Before Year-end.
Maximize a Health Savings Account. Maximize contributions to an HSA (if available to you). HSA contributions are tax-free, allocated among mutual funds, appreciate tax-deferred, and ultimately distributed tax-free for qualified healthcare expenses.
The self-only coverage contribution for 2020 is $3,550, $7,100 for family coverage. If 55 or older, add another $1,000 as a catch-up contribution. Limits for 2021: $3,600 self, $7,200 family.
Spend down your Flexible Spending Account. So, do you have a plan to liquidate your FSA by year-end? Flexible Spending Accounts allow for tax-free distributions for the purchase of qualified healthcare products and services. An FSA Carryover Rule exists whereby up to a $500 account balance may be carried over early in the new year. However, not every plan provides this option. In conclusion, check with your employer’s benefits department as soon as possible.
A qualified tax professional is worth his or her weight in gold, and I’m fortunate to have one. Do you?
Keep an eye out for an upcoming allegiance between RIA Advisors and a team of dynamic tax specialists designated to help you make sense of tax implications in the new year and beyond!


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Stimulus is Just Around the Corner with Nick Santiago (Ep #178)

For more than 20 years , Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets .
He ’ s made @ @ @ @ @ way and now he ’ s looking to spread the word .
There ’ s @ @ @ @ @ trader should be coming up short .
So now we ’ ve started a daily @ @ @ @ @ to date on the latest market developments .
Nick will be sharing trades and concepts @ @ @ @ @ Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago
For more than 20 years, Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets. He’s made some incredible calls along the way and now he’s looking to spread the word. There’s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short. So now we’ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments. Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Jordan Roy-Byrne: Ignore Fed & Politics, Focus on These Things Instead

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to share his thoughts on using the Fed and news events to dictate your investments in @ @ @ @ @ discuss the cross currents that are truly the drivers for gold and gold stocks .
@ @ @ @ @ a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association..
He is the publisher @ @ @ @ @ , a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor , @ @ @ @ @ , an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets .

The Korelin Economics Report, Released on 12/16/20
Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to share his thoughts on using the Fed and news events to dictate your investments in precious metals. We also discuss the cross currents that are truly the drivers for gold and gold stocks.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association.. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Fauci Issues Christmas COVID-19 Warnings Here We Go Again….

Dr. Anthony Fauci , the nation ’ s top infectious diseases expert , on Wednesday once again urged Americans to @ @ @ @ @ a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus .
“ I ’ m going @ @ @ @ @ — period , ” Fauci told The Washington Post .
“ The Christmas holiday is @ @ @ @ @ because Christmas Eve is my birthday .
And Christmas Day is Christmas Day .
And @ @ @ @ @ come home .
That ’ s painful .
We don ’ t like that .
@ @ @ @ @ one of the things you ’ re going to have to accept as we go @ @ @ @ @ ” Fauci turns 80 on Dec. 24 .
He has three adult daughters and none @ @ @ @ @ wife , Christine Grady , over the holidays .

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, on Wednesday once again urged Americans to have a low-key Christmas in a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
“I’m going to be with my wife — period,” Fauci told The Washington Post. “The Christmas holiday is a special holiday for us because Christmas Eve is my birthday. And Christmas Day is Christmas Day. And they are not going to come home. That’s painful. We don’t like that. But that’s just one of the things you’re going to have to accept as we go through this unprecedented challenging time.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Fauci turns 80 on Dec. 24. He has three adult daughters and none will visit him or his wife, Christine Grady, over the holidays.
www.aol.com/news/anthony-fauci-issues-christmas-covid-074907595.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Catherine Herridge Reports DNI John Ratcliffe Confirmed “There Was Foreign Election Interference by

Catherine Herridge Reports DNI John Ratcliffe Confirmed “There Was Foreign Election Interference by China, Iran, Russia in November”…. “We’ll See if There’s a Biden Administration”

The Trump administration ’ s director of national intelligence on Sunday refused to acknowledge a Biden administration , the latest denial as the president and his allies launch increasingly desperate bids to stall or overturn the transfer of power .
“ Well , these election issues , we ’ ll see who ’ s in what seats and whether there is a Biden administration , ” said DNI director John Ratcliffe , after Fox News host Maria Bartiromo asked what the official thought of Mr Biden ’ s cabinet picks and their approach to China .
During the interview , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use of mail-in voting , long considered safe and used by the president himself this election , and further echoed conspiracies from the president and his allies .
They have continued to spread false claims about the integrity of the election even though federal officials have declared it was secure and no evidence of meaningful voter fraud has been found .
Mr Ratcliffe called on federal authorities to reassure the public about the integrity of the election .
“ I would hope that the leadership at the FBI and the Department of Justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the American people , because there is a lack of confidence there , ” he said .
“ There are a lot of people in this country who don ’ t think the votes were counted fairly .
”

DNI Ratcliffe – “We’ll See if There’s a Biden Administration”
The Trump administration’s director of national intelligence on Sunday refused to acknowledge a Biden administration, the latest denial as the president and his allies launch increasingly desperate bids to stall or overturn the transfer of power.
“Well, these election issues, we’ll see who’s in what seats and whether there is a Biden administration,” said DNI director John Ratcliffe, after Fox News host Maria Bartiromo asked what the official thought of Mr Biden’s cabinet picks and their approach to China.
During the interview, Mr Ratcliffe also cast doubt on the use of mail-in voting, long considered safe and used by the president himself this election, and further echoed conspiracies from the president and his allies. They have continued to spread false claims about the integrity of the election even though federal officials have declared it was secure and no evidence of meaningful voter fraud has been found. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Mr Ratcliffe called on federal authorities to reassure the public about the integrity of the election.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Small cap stocks, India, Japan are on fire

Sector rotation is pushing the stock market higher , with previous laggards such as small caps , financials , and energy stocks rebounding sharply .
To put this into perspective , notice the Russell 2000 ’ s massive outperformance since September 23 : The following chart illustrates performance for 4 major indices from the March bottom-present .
As you can see , initially the NASDAQ outperformed other sectors .
But now , the Russell 2000 is racing ahead .
Such has been the dominant theme in 2020 : traders all jump on the same bandwagons at the same time , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Traders jumped on the gold trend , then the tech stock trend , then the Bitcoin trend , then the IPO trend , and now the small cap trend : As a result , a near record % of Russell 2000 stocks are in a long term uptrend ( i.e .
above their 200 dma ) : No bull market rally lasts forever .
When this happened in the past , small caps ’ short term rally was typically exhausted .
The Russell 2000 faced short term losses over the next few weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the next 6+ months : Bond king Jeff Gundlach is very long term bullish on India , predicting that India is where China was 20 years ago .
Perhaps this prediction will come true if the U.S. ’ actions force an increasing number of manufacturers out of China and into other low-cost countries such as India .
Regardless , India equities are on fire , with 100 % of the Nifty 50 members above their 200 dma : This only happened 2 other times : in 2003 and 2009 .
Both cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market in Indian equities .
Elsewhere in Asia , Japanese stocks continue to trend higher , with 78 % of Nikkei stocks above their 200 dma : This mostly led to short term pullbacks in Japanese equities :

by Troy
Small caps
Sector rotation is pushing the stock market higher, with previous laggards such as small caps, financials, and energy stocks rebounding sharply. To put this into perspective, notice the Russell 2000’s massive outperformance since September 23:
The following chart illustrates performance for 4 major indices from the March bottom-present. As you can see, initially the NASDAQ outperformed other sectors. But now, the Russell 2000 is racing ahead. Such has been the dominant theme in 2020: traders all jump on the same bandwagons at the same time, pushing existing trends to extreme conditions. Traders jumped on the gold trend, then the tech stock trend, then the Bitcoin trend, then the IPO trend, and now the small cap trend:
As a result, a near record % of Russell 2000 stocks are in a long term uptrend (i.e. above their 200 dma):
No bull market rally lasts forever. When this happened in the past, small caps’ short term rally was typically exhausted. The Russell 2000 faced short term losses over the next few weeks and months, followed by more gains over the next 6+ months:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
India
Bond king Jeff Gundlach is very long term bullish on India, predicting that India is where China was 20 years ago. Perhaps this prediction will come true if the U.S.’ actions force an increasing number of manufacturers out of China and into other low-cost countries such as India. Regardless, India equities are on fire, with 100% of the Nifty 50 members above their 200 dma:
This only happened 2 other times: in 2003 and 2009. Both cases marked the start of a multi-year bull market in Indian equities.
Japan
Elsewhere in Asia, Japanese stocks continue to trend higher, with 78% of Nikkei stocks above their 200 dma:
This mostly led to short term pullbacks in Japanese equities: