investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Margin Call: You Were Warned Of The Risk

I have been slammed with emails over the last couple of days asking the following questions : “ What just happened to my bonds ?
” “ What happened to my gold position , shouldn ’ t it be going up ?
” “ Why are all my stocks being flushed at the same time ?
” This Is What A “ Margin Call , ” Looks Like .
In December 2008 , we warned of the risk .
At that time , the market was dropping sharply , and Mark Hulbert wrote an article dismissing the risk of margin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin debt may not doom the bull market after all , reports to the contrary notwithstanding .
According to research conducted in the 1970s by Norman Fosback , then the president of the Institute for Econometric Research , there is an 85 % probability that a bull market is in progress when margin debt is above its 12-month moving average , in contrast to just a 41 % probability when it ’ s below .
Why , then , do I suggest not becoming overly pessimistic ?
For several reasons : I disagreed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
But fortunately the Federal Reserve ’ s reversal on monetary policy kept the stock market from sinking to levels that would trigger “ margin calls.
” As I noted then , margin debt is not a technical indicator that can be used to trade markets .
Margin debt is the “ gasoline , ” which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets .
However , that “ leverage ” also works in reverse as it provides the accelerant for larger declines as lenders “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cover credit lines without regard to the borrower ’ s position .
That last sentence is the most important and is what is currently happening in the market .
It is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place .
( In other words , if you don ’ t sell to cover , the broker-dealer will do it for you . )
When lenders fear they may not be able to recoup their credit-lines , they force the borrower to either put in more cash or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The problem is that “ margin calls ” generally happen all at once as falling asset prices impact all lenders simultaneously .
Margin debt is NOT an issue – until it is .
When an “ event ” occurs that causes lenders to “ panic ” and call in margin loans , things progress very quickly as the “ math ” becomes a problem .
Here is a simple example .
“ If you buy $ 100,000 of stock on margin , you only need to pay $ 50,000 .
Seems like a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ price goes up .
But what if your stock drops to $ 60,000 ?
Suddenly , you ’ ve lost $ 40,000 , leaving you with only $ 10,000 in your margin account .
The rules state that you need to have at least 25 percent of the $ 60,000 stock value in your account , which is $ 15,000 .
So not only do you lose $ 40,000 , but you have to deposit an additional $ 5,000 in your margin account to stay in business.
“ However , when margin calls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet the call , the equity in the portfolio is reduced further .
Any subsequent price decline requires additional coverage leading to a “ death spiral ” until the margin line is covered .
• You have to deposit $ 5000 , or sell to cover .
• However , if you don ’ t have the cash , then a problem arises .
The sell of equity reduces the collateral requirement requiring a larger transaction : $ 5000/.25 % requirement = $ 20,000 • With the margin requirement met , a balance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a $ 10,000 margin requirement .
• The next morning , the market declines again , triggering another margin call .
This is why you should NEVER invest on margin unless you always have the cash to cover .
As I discussed previously , the level we suspected would trigger a margin event was roughly a 20 % decline from the peak .
The Dow Jones provided the clearest picture of the acceleration in selling as “ margin calls ” kicked in .
The last time we saw such an event was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There To Go ?
Unfortunately , FINRA only updates margin debt with about a 2-month lag .
Mark ’ s second point was a lack of data .
This isn ’ t actually the case as margin debt has been tracked back to 1959 .
However , for clarity , let ’ s just start with data back to 1980 .
The chart below tracks two things : • The actual level of margin debt , and ; • The level of “ free cash ” balances which is the difference between cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As I stated above , since the data has not been updated since January , the current level of margin , and negative cash balances , has obviously been reduced , and likely sharply so .
However , previous “ market bottoms , ” have occurred when those negative cash balances are reverted .
Given the extreme magnitude of the leverage that was outstanding , I highly suspect the “ reversion ” is yet complete .
The relationship between cash balances and the market is better illustrated in the next chart .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to show the relationship between reversals in margin debt and the market .
Given the market has only declined by roughly 30 % to date , there is likely more to go .
This doesn ’ t mean a fairly sharp reflexive bounce can ’ t occur before a further liquidation ensues .
If we invert margin debt to the S & P 500 , you can see the magnitude of both previous market declines and margin liquidation cycles .
As stated , this data is as of January , and margin balances @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rout .
I am just not sure we have “ squeezed ” the last bit of blood out of investors just yet .
I warned previously , the idea that margin debt levels are simply a function of market activity , and have no bearing on the outcome of the market , was heavily flawed .
That event was the double-whammy of collapsing oil prices and the economic shutdown in response to the coronavirus .
While it is certainly hoped by many that we are closer to the end of the liquidation cycle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funding crisis , a blowout in debt yields , and forced selling of assets , suggests there is likely more pain to come before we are done .
It ’ s not too late to take actions to preserve capital now , so you have capital to invest later .
As I wrote in Tuesday ’ s missive “ When Too Little Is Too Much : ” You can ’ t “ buy low , ” if you don ’ t have anything to “ buy with .
”

by Lance Roberts
I have been slammed with emails over the last couple of days asking the following questions:
“What just happened to my bonds?”
“What happened to my gold position, shouldn’t it be going up?”
“Why are all my stocks being flushed at the same time?”
As noted by Zerohedge:
“Stocks down, Bonds down, credit down, gold down, oil down, copper down, crypto down, global systemically important banks down, and liquidity down… Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio… ever…”
This Is What A “Margin Call,” Looks Like.
In December 2008, we warned of the risk. At that time, the market was dropping sharply, and Mark Hulbert wrote an article dismissing the risk of margin debt. To wit:
“Plunging margin debt may not doom the bull market after all, reports to the contrary notwithstanding. According to research conducted in the 1970s by Norman Fosback, then the president of the Institute for Econometric Research, there is an 85% probability that a bull market is in progress when margin debt is above its 12-month moving average, in contrast to just a 41% probability when it’s below. Why, then, do I suggest not becoming overly pessimistic? For several reasons: 1) The margin debt indicator issues many false signals 2) There is insufficient data 3) Margin debt is a strong coincident indicator.”
I disagreed with Mark on several points at the time. But fortunately the Federal Reserve’s reversal on monetary policy kept the stock market from sinking to levels that would trigger “margin calls.”
As I noted then, margin debt is not a technical indicator that can be used to trade markets. Margin debt is the “gasoline,” which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets. However, that “leverage” also works in reverse as it provides the accelerant for larger declines as lenders “force” the sale of assets to cover credit lines without regard to the borrower’s position.
That last sentence is the most important and is what is currently happening in the market.
The issue with margin debt, in terms of the biggest risk, is the unwinding of leverage is NOT at the investor’s discretion.
It is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place. (In other words, if you don’t sell to cover, the broker-dealer will do it for you.)
When lenders fear they may not be able to recoup their credit-lines, they force the borrower to either put in more cash or sell assets to cover the debt. The problem is that “margin calls” generally happen all at once as falling asset prices impact all lenders simultaneously.
Margin debt is NOT an issue – until it is.
When an “event” occurs that causes lenders to “panic” and call in margin loans, things progress very quickly as the “math” becomes a problem. Here is a simple example.
“If you buy $100,000 of stock on margin, you only need to pay $50,000. Seems like a great deal, especially if the stock price goes up. But what if your stock drops to $60,000? Suddenly, you’ve lost $40,000, leaving you with only $10,000 in your margin account. The rules state that you need to have at least 25 percent of the $60,000 stock value in your account, which is $15,000. So not only do you lose $40,000, but you have to deposit an additional $5,000 in your margin account to stay in business.“
However, when margin calls occur, and equity is sold to meet the call, the equity in the portfolio is reduced further. Any subsequent price decline requires additional coverage leading to a “death spiral” until the margin line is covered.
Example:
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$100,000 portfolio declines to $60,000. Requiring a margin call of $5000.
You have to deposit $5000, or sell to cover.
However, if you don’t have the cash, then a problem arises. The sell of equity reduces the collateral requirement requiring a larger transaction: $5000/.25% requirement = $20,000
With the margin requirement met, a balance of $40,000 remains in the account with a $10,000 margin requirement.
The next morning, the market declines again, triggering another margin call.
Wash, rinse, repeat until broke.
This is why you should NEVER invest on margin unless you always have the cash to cover.
Just 20%
As I discussed previously, the level we suspected would trigger a margin event was roughly a 20% decline from the peak.
“If such a decline triggers a 20% fall from the peak, which is around 2340 currently, broker-dealers are likely going to start tightening up margin requirements and requiring coverage of outstanding margin lines. This is just a guess…it could be at any point at which “credit-risk” becomes a concern. The important point is that ‘when’ it occurs, it will start a ‘liquidation cycle’ as ‘margin calls’ trigger more selling which leads to more margin calls. This cycle will continue until the liquidation process is complete.
The Dow Jones provided the clearest picture of the acceleration in selling as “margin calls” kicked in.
The last time we saw such an event was in 2008.
How Much More Is There To Go?
Unfortunately, FINRA only updates margin debt with about a 2-month lag.
Mark’s second point was a lack of data. This isn’t actually the case as margin debt has been tracked back to 1959. However, for clarity, let’s just start with data back to 1980. The chart below tracks two things:
The actual level of margin debt, and; The level of “free cash” balances which is the difference between cash and borrowed funds (net cash).
As I stated above, since the data has not been updated since January, the current level of margin, and negative cash balances, has obviously been reduced, and likely sharply so.
However, previous “market bottoms,” have occurred when those negative cash balances are reverted. Given the extreme magnitude of the leverage that was outstanding, I highly suspect the “reversion” is yet complete.
The relationship between cash balances and the market is better illustrated in the next chart. I have inverted free cash balances, to show the relationship between reversals in margin debt and the market. Given the market has only declined by roughly 30% to date, there is likely more to go. This doesn’t mean a fairly sharp reflexive bounce can’t occur before a further liquidation ensues.
If we invert margin debt to the S&P 500, you can see the magnitude of both previous market declines and margin liquidation cycles. As stated, this data is as of January, and margin balances will be substantially lower following the recent rout. I am just not sure we have “squeezed” the last bit of blood out of investors just yet.
You Were Warned
I warned previously, the idea that margin debt levels are simply a function of market activity, and have no bearing on the outcome of the market, was heavily flawed.
“By itself, margin debt is inert. Investors can leverage their existing portfolios and increase buying power to participate in rising markets. While ‘this time could certainly be different,’ the reality is that leverage of this magnitude is ‘gasoline waiting on a match.’ When an event eventually occurs, it creates a rush to liquidate holdings. The subsequent decline in prices eventually reaches a point that triggers an initial round of margin calls. Since margin debt is a function of the value of the underlying ‘collateral,’ the forced sale of assets will reduce the value of the collateral, triggering further margin calls. Those margin calls will trigger more selling, forcing more margin calls, so forth and so on.
That event was the double-whammy of collapsing oil prices and the economic shutdown in response to the coronavirus.
While it is certainly hoped by many that we are closer to the end of the liquidation cycle, than the beginning, the dollar funding crisis, a blowout in debt yields, and forced selling of assets, suggests there is likely more pain to come before we are done.
It’s not too late to take actions to preserve capital now, so you have capital to invest later.
As I wrote in Tuesday’s missive “When Too Little Is Too Much:”
“With our risk limits hit, and in order to protect our clients from both financial and emotional duress, we made the decision that even the reduced risk we were carrying was still too much. The good news is that a great ‘buying’ opportunity is coming. Just don’t be in a ‘rush’ to try and buy the bottom. I can assure you, when we ultimately see a clear ‘risk/reward’ set up to start taking on equity risk again, we will do so ‘with both hands.’ And we are sitting on a lot of cash just for that reason.”
You can’t “buy low,” if you don’t have anything to “buy with.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--French Drug Study Has Shown A 50-Year Old Anti-Malaria Med Is 100% Effective In Curing COVID-19

A peer-reviewed study shows that 100 % of patients , after 6 days of taking a Malaria drug were `` @ @ @ @ @ , reportedly , the 2nd 100 % cure to a virus that has ever existed @ @ @ @ @ should immediately move to make this available pic.twitter.com/D2bRTj2Rv9

BREAKING:
A peer-reviewed study shows that 100% of patients, after 6 days of taking a Malaria drug were "virologically" cured
This is, reportedly, the 2nd 100% cure to a virus that has ever existed
RT If President @realDonaldTrump should immediately move to make this available pic.twitter.com/D2bRTj2Rv9
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) March 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--AAPL holds $55B in corporate debt. AMZN holds $12B. GOOG, unclear. MSFT $7B. Are the FANG companies

AAPL holds $55B in corporate debt. AMZN holds $12B. GOOG, unclear. MSFT $7B. Are the FANG companies at risk if the corporate debt market collapses?

People love to say that AAPL has $ 100B+ in cash , but they actually have $ 40B in cash equivalents , and $ 67B in “ marketable securities.
” What are “ marketable securities ” ?
Of this $ 67B in marketable securities , nearly $ 55B is non-current corporate debt ( Source : “ Note 3 – Financial Instruments ” ) .
Is AAPL a Boeing debt holder ?
A GE debt holder ?
A United Airlines debt holder ?
We don ’ t know .
From their latest 10-K , $ 36B in cash equivalents , plus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” We don ’ t know anything about the maturities of those corporate debt securities .
From the latest 10-K : $ 18B in cash equivalents , $ 101B in marketable securities , $ 13B in non-marketable securities ( investments in unicorns ? )
on the balance sheet .
As we view these securities as available to support current operations , we classify highly liquid securities with maturities beyond 12 months as current assets under the caption marketable securities on the Consolidated Balance Sheets .
Cash equivalents and marketable securities are comprised of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highly liquid government bonds , corporate debt securities , mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities and marketable equity securities .
No additional breakdown of the marketable securities is provided .
Are they mostly corporate debt ?
Treasuries ?
We don ’ t know .
Latest 10-Q seems rather tame : $ 8.9B in cash equivalents , $ 125B in short-term investments , $ 100B of which is Treasuries and $ 7B is corporate debt .
tl ; dr – what do these big tech behemoths really have on their balance sheets ?

by Power80770M
AAPL
People love to say that AAPL has $100B+ in cash, but they actually have $40B in cash equivalents, and $67B in “marketable securities.” What are “marketable securities”?
From their latest 10-Q:
The maturities of the Company’s non-current marketable debt securities generally range from one to five years.
Of this $67B in marketable securities, nearly $55B is non-current corporate debt (Source: “Note 3 – Financial Instruments”).
Is AAPL a Boeing debt holder? A GE debt holder? A United Airlines debt holder? We don’t know.

AMZN
From their latest 10-K, $36B in cash equivalents, plus $12B in “corporate debt securities.” We don’t know anything about the maturities of those corporate debt securities.

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GOOG
From the latest 10-K: $18B in cash equivalents, $101B in marketable securities, $13B in non-marketable securities (investments in unicorns?) on the balance sheet.
What are “marketable securities”?
As we view these securities as available to support current operations, we classify highly liquid securities with maturities beyond 12 months as current assets under the caption marketable securities on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Cash equivalents and marketable securities are comprised of time deposits, money market funds, highly liquid government bonds, corporate debt securities, mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities and marketable equity securities.
No additional breakdown of the marketable securities is provided. Are they mostly corporate debt? Treasuries? We don’t know.

MSFT
Latest 10-Q seems rather tame: $8.9B in cash equivalents, $125B in short-term investments, $100B of which is Treasuries and $7B is corporate debt.

tl;dr – what do these big tech behemoths really have on their balance sheets?


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Miami Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart has tested positive for coronavirus. He voted Friday the 13t

Miami Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart has tested positive for coronavirus. He voted Friday the 13th in the House, 1 Day Prior to Symptoms.

BREAKING : Miami Republican Rep. @ MarioDB has tested positive for the coronavirus .
He voted Friday in the House @ @ @ @ @ Symptoms NEW : Miami Republican Rep. @ MarioDB has tested positive for the coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ now feels fine .
Having watched the House floor obsessively for years , my prediction @ @ @ @ @ about to see a flurry of members test positive .
t.co/US7CIp7LTA Members of congress congregate @ @ @ @ @ sit in close quarters in party meetings and are generally physically very close to one @ @ @ @ @ is positive for coronavirus —

BREAKING: Miami Republican Rep. @MarioDB has tested positive
for the coronavirus. He voted Friday in the House – One Day
Prior to Symptoms
NEW: Miami Republican Rep. @MarioDB has tested positive for the coronavirus. He had a fever but now feels fine.
Having watched the House floor obsessively for years, my prediction is that we’re about to see a flurry of members test positive. t.co/US7CIp7LTA
Members of congress congregate on the house floor, sit in close quarters in party meetings and are generally physically very close to one another.
Now @MarioDB is positive for coronavirus —
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) March 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--This is why YOUNG PEOPLE MUST CARE! Its not just your parents at risk. Young people are dying too.[V

This is why YOUNG PEOPLE MUST CARE! Its not just your parents at risk. Young people are dying too.[VIDEO]

Share this! THIS is #coronavirus #Covid19 This is why YOUNG PEOPLE MUST CARE! Its not just your parents at risk. Young people are dying too. Wash your hands, stay home, protect yourselves and family❤🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/FRC9mJGeX2 — Barzen Kasim (@WeloveKURDISTAN) March 19, 2020
Coronavirus Ravages 7 New Jersey Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
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Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3 The matriarch of the large New Jersey family died Wednesday night without ever knowing that her two oldest children had died before her.t.co/ZX88mTKdZy — Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) March 19, 2020
UPDATE: I'll be reporting from home for the foreseeable future. This just to be safe after a fellow reporter, @KayleeHartung, announced she tested positive for COVID-19. I reported alongside Kaylee at the Life Care Center last week. I feel fine & no symptoms. #WeGotThisSeattle pic.twitter.com/8JUnaQaQq0 — Patrick Quinn (@PatrickQuinnTV) March 19, 2020
BFD


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Things must be getting bad. CNN is doing the whole don’t panic thing they did as the market collapse

Things must be getting bad. CNN is doing the whole don’t panic thing they did as the market collapsed in 2008…

MAYBE IT REALLY IS THE END TIMES : Stunned CNN Offers Rare Praise for Trump ’ s Leadership After Coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ Dana Bash Praises Trump ’ s Handling of Coronavirus : “ Kind Of Leader That @ @ @ @

Oh shit, things must be getting bad. CNN is doing the whole don’t panic thing they did as the market collapsed in 2008 … t.co/kQV0QSk8zq — Rock Solid Politics (@BradCabana) March 19, 2020
Yes, these are scary times. But that doesn't mean you should head to the bank, drain your accounts and put your cash under your mattress. t.co/NQ6k5EfUo6 — CNN (@CNN) March 19, 2020
MAYBE IT REALLY IS THE END TIMES: Stunned CNN Offers Rare Praise for Trump’s Leadership After Coronavirus Presser.
CNN’s Dana Bash Praises Trump’s Handling of Coronavirus: “Kind Of Leader That People Need”.
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h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Bix Weir: ALERT! The Good Guys Took Too Long To Pull The Trigger, TROUBLE AHEAD!

by Bix Weir of Road to Roota I ’ m back .
Everyone in my family is now in the @ @ @ @ @ for a few months .
It ’ s going to get much , much worse @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m pissed that the Good Guys took so long to pull the trigger…now @ @ @ @ @ to make the transition .
Stay safe .

by Bix Weir of Road to Roota
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I’m back. Everyone in my family is now in the right place to hunker down for a few months. It’s going to get much, much worse before it gets better. I’m pissed that the Good Guys took so long to pull the trigger…now it’s much harder to make the transition. Stay safe.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Uncle intel: Lockdown movement and indications… trump will invoke “stafford act”. Need help to verif

Uncle intel: Lockdown movement and indications… trump will invoke “stafford act”. Need help to verify

I dont know how credible this is… its from a friends brother whos part of admin of a hospital He @ @ @ @ @ week .
2 weeks lockdown….homeland security will be running it with national guard Ill update @ @ @ @ @ i know Anyone else hear or know of it ?
“ I got this today @ @ @ @ @ for CPD Homeland security is preparing to mobilize the national guard .
Preparing to dispatch @ @ @ @ @ with military .
they will also call in 1st responders .
they are preparing to @ @ @ @ @ quarantine for all citizens , All businesses closed .
They will announce this as soon @ @ @ @ @ place to help prevent looters and rioters… they will announce before the end of the @ @ @ @ @ to 72 Hours the president will evoke what is called the “ Stafford Act ” @ @ @ @ @ two week mandatory quarantine for the nation .
Stock up on whatever you need to @ @ @ @ @ two week supply of everything .
”

I dont know how credible this is… its from a friends brother whos part of admin of a hospital
He says by end of this week. 2 weeks lockdown….homeland security will be running it with national guard
Ill update which hospital it is once i know
Anyone else hear or know of it?
Update: whats CPD?
“I got this today from a close friend works for CPD
Homeland security is preparing to mobilize the national guard.
Preparing to dispatch them across the US along with military.
they will also call in 1st responders.
they are preparing to announce a nationwide
2 week quarantine for all citizens,
All businesses closed.
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Everyone at home.
They will announce this as soon as they have troops in place to help prevent looters and rioters…
they will announce before the end of the weekend,
Ok
within 48 to 72 Hours the president will evoke what is called the “Stafford Act”
The president will order a two week mandatory quarantine for the nation.
Stock up on whatever you need to make sure you have a two week supply of everything.”
Update: his brother works at sharp memorial hospital
Here’s the latest National Guard mobilizations by state
h/t mr. jingles


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Simon Black: Banks are going to drown in an ocean of defaults

The entire world has completely ‘ misunderestimated ’ the Corona Virus… On November 6 , 2000 , then US presidential candidate George W. Bush told a crowd of cheering supporters , “ they misunderestimated me.
” Now , if English is not your native language , allow me to clear the air : ‘ misunderestimate ’ is not a word .
But then again , George W. Bush was legendary for hilarious slip-ups like this .
There are entire books dedicated to his ‘ Bushisms , ’ the ridiculous made-up words and incomprehensible sayings that became routine for the 43rd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be a conflation of the words ‘ misunderstand ’ and ‘ underestimate ’ .
And while that was utterly hysterical 20 years ago when Bush first said it , ‘ misunderestimate ’ may be the most appropriate word of today .
The entire world has completely ‘ misunderestimated ’ the Corona Virus .
In terms of misunderstand– that ’ s obvious .
There ’ s so much that we don ’ t know about the virus ( officially known as SARS-CoV-2 ) and the disease that it causes ( COVID-19 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ published a “ peer-reviewed ” research paper earlier this month stating that the virus had split into multiple strains .
But other specialists in the field strongly disagreed with the paper ’ s conclusions .
Swiss biologist Richard Neher described the research as , “ wrong , misleading .
.
.
downright dangerous inferences , ” while Australian virologist Ian Mackay called it a “ weak paper and poor science.
” Another peer-reviewed study released in the Journal of Medical Virology concluded that the virus originated from snakes .
But plenty of experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientific community has learned so much about SARS-CoV-2 since it first surfaced a few months ago .
But there ’ s still so much that ’ s unknown– and that makes perfect sense given that this virus is brand new .
They ’ re trying to figure it out as quickly as possible , but that ’ s naturally going to lead to some disagreements and conflicting conclusions .
But then the Internet takes over , and suddenly everyone ’ s an expert .
People who have no background in medicine and biology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus that ’ s just plain silly .
US television personality Jimmy Kimmel joked about this last week , saying , “ I speak [ about the virus ] as if I ’ ve been a professor of immunology at Stanford for 35 years… ” There ’ s still so many things that the experts don ’ t understand , or don ’ t agree on .
The answers are coming , but it ’ s still early days .
But in addition to misunderstanding , the world has also totally underestimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It started in China back in December , with the government trying to keep the outbreak quiet and taking steps to silence the first whistleblower .
As the virus began to spread , Western nations complacently shrugged it off and assumed it would remain in Asia .
Even the World Health Organization refused to call this a ‘ pandemic ’ until March 11… only a week ago .
Investors around the world ignored this for months , completely underestimating the massive , worldwide economic impact the virus would have .
Even now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market crashes in history , people are still woefully underestimating the effects .
And I ’ m not talking about the stock market ( though there could easily be more losses ahead ) .
I ’ m talking about something far more serious : banks .
Banks are about to drown in an ocean of defaults .
I ’ ll talk about this a lot more in the coming days , but briefly : • There ’ s $ 250 TRILLION in global debt right now– mortgages , credit card debt , business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • And banks own a large portion of that debt .
• This virus crisis is going to trigger a wave of defaults from consumers , businesses , and even governments .
• Think about it : tourism alone makes up 10 % of global GDP .
Revenue in that entire sector– hotels , airlines , cruise ships , etc .
has collapsed , and many of those companies aren ’ t going to survive .
• The crash in oil prices is going to wipe out countless oil companies .
• Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ struggling in the age of e-commerce , will likely declare bankruptcy .
• Countless businesses around the world have ‘ temporarily ’ closed due to public health policies , and many of them will go out of business entirely .
• MOST of these businesses owe lots of money to the banks , whether it ’ s a small business working line , or the $ 34 billion in debt that American Airlines owes .
So the defaults are going to be massive .
• On top of that , millions of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be unable to make payments on their credit card debt , auto loans , and even mortgages .
• Again , there ’ s $ 250 trillion in global debt right now .
Total bank capital worldwide is less than $ 10 trillion .
• So if the coming defaults trigger a mere 4 % loss in total debt , it will exceed the entirety of global bank capital .
• And this doesn ’ t even take into consideration the impact of the $ 1 QUADRILLION derivatives exposure .
This looming wave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months could spark a crisis in the global financial system that completely dwarfs what happened back in 2008 .
I desperately want to be wrong .
And it ’ s possible that public health officials radically shift their positions in the coming weeks and tell all the young , healthy people in the world to go back to work , get infected , and start developing immunity .
They may be forced to do this to avoid destroying the global economy .
But at this point , every possible scenario is on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question… especially when the arithmetic is so obvious .
And continuing to misunderestimate the effects of this virus could be far more dangerous than the virus itself .
We ’ ll talk about this more in the coming days , along with some sensible suggestions to reduce risk .

The entire world has completely ‘misunderestimated’ the Corona Virus…
from Simon Black via Sovereign Man
On November 6, 2000, then US presidential candidate George W. Bush told a crowd of cheering supporters, “they misunderestimated me.”
Now, if English is not your native language, allow me to clear the air: ‘misunderestimate’ is not a word. But then again, George W. Bush was legendary for hilarious slip-ups like this.
There are entire books dedicated to his ‘Bushisms,’ the ridiculous made-up words and incomprehensible sayings that became routine for the 43rd US President.
‘Misunderestimate’ seems to be a conflation of the words ‘misunderstand’ and ‘underestimate’. And while that was utterly hysterical 20 years ago when Bush first said it, ‘misunderestimate’ may be the most appropriate word of today.
The entire world has completely ‘misunderestimated’ the Corona Virus.
In terms of misunderstand– that’s obvious. There’s so much that we don’t know about the virus (officially known as SARS-CoV-2) and the disease that it causes (COVID-19).
For example, a group of researchers published a “peer-reviewed” research paper earlier this month stating that the virus had split into multiple strains.
(Peer-reviewed is a type of self-regulation among academics; it means the paper had been evaluated by other experts before it was published.)
But other specialists in the field strongly disagreed with the paper’s conclusions.
Swiss biologist Richard Neher described the research as, “wrong, misleading. . . downright dangerous inferences,” while Australian virologist Ian Mackay called it a “weak paper and poor science.”
Another peer-reviewed study released in the Journal of Medical Virology concluded that the virus originated from snakes. But plenty of experts disagreed with that assertion too.
The scientific community has learned so much about SARS-CoV-2 since it first surfaced a few months ago.
But there’s still so much that’s unknown– and that makes perfect sense given that this virus is brand new. They’re trying to figure it out as quickly as possible, but that’s naturally going to lead to some disagreements and conflicting conclusions.
But then the Internet takes over, and suddenly everyone’s an expert. People who have no background in medicine and biology Tweet with a level of certainty about the virus that’s just plain silly.
US television personality Jimmy Kimmel joked about this last week, saying, “I speak [about the virus] as if I’ve been a professor of immunology at Stanford for 35 years…”
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There’s still so many things that the experts don’t understand, or don’t agree on. The answers are coming, but it’s still early days.
But in addition to misunderstanding, the world has also totally underestimated this virus… and continues to do so.
It started in China back in December, with the government trying to keep the outbreak quiet and taking steps to silence the first whistleblower.
As the virus began to spread, Western nations complacently shrugged it off and assumed it would remain in Asia.
Even the World Health Organization refused to call this a ‘pandemic’ until March 11… only a week ago.
Investors around the world ignored this for months, completely underestimating the massive, worldwide economic impact the virus would have.
Even now, after one of the worst stock market crashes in history, people are still woefully underestimating the effects.
And I’m not talking about the stock market (though there could easily be more losses ahead). I’m talking about something far more serious: banks.
Banks are about to drown in an ocean of defaults. I’ll talk about this a lot more in the coming days, but briefly:
There’s $250 TRILLION in global debt right now– mortgages, credit card debt, business loans, government debt, etc.
And banks own a large portion of that debt.
This virus crisis is going to trigger a wave of defaults from consumers, businesses, and even governments.
Think about it: tourism alone makes up 10% of global GDP. Revenue in that entire sector– hotels, airlines, cruise ships, etc. has collapsed, and many of those companies aren’t going to survive.
The crash in oil prices is going to wipe out countless oil companies.
Many large retail chains, which were already struggling in the age of e-commerce, will likely declare bankruptcy.
Countless businesses around the world have ‘temporarily’ closed due to public health policies, and many of them will go out of business entirely.
MOST of these businesses owe lots of money to the banks, whether it’s a small business working line, or the $34 billion in debt that American Airlines owes. So the defaults are going to be massive.
On top of that, millions of people are going to lose their jobs and be unable to make payments on their credit card debt, auto loans, and even mortgages.
Again, there’s $250 trillion in global debt right now. Total bank capital worldwide is less than $10 trillion.
So if the coming defaults trigger a mere 4% loss in total debt, it will exceed the entirety of global bank capital.
And this doesn’t even take into consideration the impact of the $1 QUADRILLION derivatives exposure.
Misunderestimate? Absolutely.
This looming wave of loan defaults over the next few months could spark a crisis in the global financial system that completely dwarfs what happened back in 2008.
I desperately want to be wrong.
And it’s possible that public health officials radically shift their positions in the coming weeks and tell all the young, healthy people in the world to go back to work, get infected, and start developing immunity.
They may be forced to do this to avoid destroying the global economy.
But at this point, every possible scenario is on the table. Nothing is out of the question… especially when the arithmetic is so obvious.
And continuing to misunderestimate the effects of this virus could be far more dangerous than the virus itself.
We’ll talk about this more in the coming days, along with some sensible suggestions to reduce risk.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Yes, the Fed IS Out of Ammo…For Now. Bernanke Just Told the Fed to Go Monetize EVERYTHING (Weimar-Li

Yes, the Fed IS Out of Ammo…For Now. Bernanke Just Told the Fed to Go Monetize EVERYTHING (Weimar-Lite)

Thus far in this crisis , the Fed has : 6 ) Allowed primary dealers to start parking assets , including stocks , as collateral in exchange for short-term credit .
7 ) Opened Euro-Dollar swaps ( this implies systemically important banks in Europe are in danger of collapse ) .
Under any set of circumstances , the above set of policies would be considered the NUCLEAR option .
The fact that the Fed has launched ALL of these in the span of three weeks is beyond incredible .
In the simplest of terms , the Fed has effectively used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a single month .
At this point , there truly is not much else the Fed can do .
And the markets continue to implode .
As I write this , the futures markets are once again LIMIT down , meaning they had to be frozen after falling 5 % .
In an opinion editorial piece in the Financial Times this morning the two former Fed Chairs urged the Fed to begin buying corporate debt and stocks .
Currently the Fed is forbidden from doing either as per the Federal Reserve Act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to authorize the Fed to start buying these assets .
The two former Fed Chairs are providing the political cover to do this .
I fully expect the Fed to begin outright buying stocks , corporate debt , and other assets within the next six weeks .
Put another way , the Fed is going to begin going what some call “ Weimar-Lite ” or effectively buying everything .
This is why bonds are dropping across the board despite the clear signs that the financial system remains under MAJOR duress… bonds realize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are going to opt for INFLATION to stop the crisis ( and I ’ m not talking about the plain vanilla 2 % per year kind ) .
The time to start preparing for this is now .
The crisis is not over… if anything it is just beginning .

by The Phoenix
Thus far in this crisis, the Fed has:
1) Cut interest rates from 1.25% to 0.15%.
2) Launched over $700 billion in Quantitative Easing (QE).
3) Launched a $1.5 TRILLION repo program.
4) Launched another $1 trillion repo program.
5) Announced it will begin buying commercial paper (short-term corporate debt).
6) Allowed primary dealers to start parking assets, including stocks, as collateral in exchange for short-term credit.
7) Opened Euro-Dollar swaps (this implies systemically important banks in Europe are in danger of collapse).
Under any set of circumstances, the above set of policies would be considered the NUCLEAR option. The fact that the Fed has launched ALL of these in the span of three weeks is beyond incredible.
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In the simplest of terms, the Fed has effectively used up ALL of its ammo in less than a single month. At this point, there truly is not much else the Fed can do.
And the markets continue to implode. As I write this, the futures markets are once again LIMIT down, meaning they had to be frozen after falling 5%.
Enter former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
In an opinion editorial piece in the Financial Times this morning the two former Fed Chairs urged the Fed to begin buying corporate debt and stocks.
Currently the Fed is forbidden from doing either as per the Federal Reserve Act. Put another way, congress would need to authorize the Fed to start buying these assets.
The two former Fed Chairs are providing the political cover to do this. I fully expect the Fed to begin outright buying stocks, corporate debt, and other assets within the next six weeks.
Put another way, the Fed is going to begin going what some call “Weimar-Lite” or effectively buying everything.
This is why bonds are dropping across the board despite the clear signs that the financial system remains under MAJOR duress… bonds realize that the fed and other Central banks are going to opt for INFLATION to stop the crisis (and I’m not talking about the plain vanilla 2% per year kind).
The time to start preparing for this is now. The crisis is not over… if anything it is just beginning.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Fed Fires Most of Its Bullets in Attempt to Curb Market Panic

Do you remember the 2-year / 10-year yield curve ?
You know , the one the Fed swept under the rug in 2018 ?
The one that officially inverted last year ?
Well , that same yield curve inversion preceded every major recession for the last 50 years .
Last year ’ s inversion appears to be right on target for preceding another recession , barring a near-term turnaround .
For the last 3 weeks , the Dow has been whipsawing severely .
On March 15 , Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell decided to intervene .
Reporting on the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears that Powell has changed his tune , moving the Fed ’ s language from “ organic balance sheet growth ” back to what a number of people said it really was , Quantitative Easing .
You can see the sharp uptick in the Fed ’ s balance sheet growth on the official chart below : Bottom line , the Fed has started up the “ money printing press ” again , and in an attempt to curb market panic , has essentially cut rates to zero .
But that hasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market is still in panic mode .
Which leaves the obvious question… What Else Can the Fed Do ?
The Fed has already made most of the “ rate moves ” it can make , short of taking unprecedented action .
You can see this reflected in the chart from CNBC below : The Fed has also stated “ The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will instill any investor confidence , or if things will keep sliding .
Of course , the Fed can also keep its “ QE printer ” alive , but who knows how much longer that can keep the markets afloat .
So that begs the question : If the Fed is running out of bullets , can it do anything to save the U.S. markets ?
Buckle Up : Uncertainty is Likely for the Near-Term You don ’ t have to let the extremely volatile market hit your retirement the way it did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recession .
You can start taking action now to protect your savings .
During uncertain times , having a diverse range of assets known for their protection , such as physical gold and silver , is a strategic way to protect what you ’ ve worked so hard to earn .

Photo by Flickr.com | CC BY | Photoshopped
From Birch Gold Group
Do you remember the 2-year / 10-year yield curve? You know, the one the Fed swept under the rug in 2018? The one that officially inverted last year?
Well, that same yield curve inversion preceded every major recession for the last 50 years. Last year’s inversion appears to be right on target for preceding another recession, barring a near-term turnaround.
For the last 3 weeks, the Dow has been whipsawing severely. On March 15, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell decided to intervene. Reporting on the Fed intervention, CNBC explained:
The Federal Reserve, saying “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” cut interest rates to essentially zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus.
So it appears that Powell has changed his tune, moving the Fed’s language from “organic balance sheet growth” back to what a number of people said it really was, Quantitative Easing.
You can see the sharp uptick in the Fed’s balance sheet growth on the official chart below:
Bottom line, the Fed has started up the “money printing press” again, and in an attempt to curb market panic, has essentially cut rates to zero.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But that hasn’t worked out well so far, because the market is still in panic mode. Which leaves the obvious question…
What Else Can the Fed Do?
The Fed has already made most of the “rate moves” it can make, short of taking unprecedented action.
You can see this reflected in the chart from CNBC below:
The Fed has also stated , “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”
We have yet to see if this will instill any investor confidence, or if things will keep sliding. Of course, the Fed can also keep its “QE printer” alive, but who knows how much longer that can keep the markets afloat.
So that begs the question: If the Fed is running out of bullets, can it do anything to save the U.S. markets?
Buckle Up: Uncertainty is Likely for the Near-Term
You don’t have to let the extremely volatile market hit your retirement the way it did to so many people in our last recession. You can start taking action now to protect your savings.
During uncertain times, having a diverse range of assets known for their protection, such as physical gold and silver, is a strategic way to protect what you’ve worked so hard to earn.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Bleach Shortage? Here’s How to Make Bleach from Pool Shock (and How to Purify Water With It)

We ’ ve all seen photos of the empty shelves in stores across American , and one thing that has become increasingly difficult to find is bleach .
Typically , a bottle of bleach should contain between 6 and 8.25 % sodium hypochlorite , a more dilute solution that one might expect , similar to an item such as peroxide .
Unfortunately for people stockpiling bleach , the potency of your product may diminish fairly rapidly over time .
The dilute solution of bleach held by many people could decrease in potency as much as 20 % in one year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was stored in “ perfect ” conditions of at or below room temperature .
Not only is bleach important for cleaning during an outbreak of pandemic illness , but it can also be used to purify water .
You can make your own bleach with pool shock .
The good news is , you can make your own bleach with granular calcium hypochlorite , the primary component of typical pool shock .
It ’ s essential to confirm that your pool shock is not contaminated by other chemicals , such as algicides .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ water .
In other words , it ’ s a different chemical composition of bleach .
The granular form of calcium hypochlorite can be used to substitute your typical bleach , sodium hypochlorite , in killing pathogens to purify water ( not to remove chemical , non-biological toxins , of course ) .
A forum post that quotes an EPA website says that a 5 lb bottle of pool shock can produce around 649 gallons of “ stock chlorine , ” something resembling about 649 gallons of bleach .
Every single gallon of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 200 gallons of water .
So , if 640 gallons of that are possible to produce with simple water and a 5 lb bottle of pool shock , that seems extremely useful .
For an easily understood equation , here ’ s something people can do .
The EPA recommends that your household bleach be used at a ratio of 8 drops per gallon of water to purify water , noting that the product must be free of adulterants essentially , or in their words , only products suitable for sanitization as shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pool shock , the ratio to purify water is around 1 part “ chlorine solution ” to 100 parts water .
First , take a heaping teaspoon , not tablespoon , of granular calcium hypochlorite and dissolve it in 2 gallons ( 8 liters ) of water .
DO NOT DRINK THIS : this is the recipe for a “ chlorine solution , ” used at that ratio of 1 part chlorine solution to 100 parts water .
This is your bleach .
It can be used for cleaning or water purification .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ may seem strange or dangerous to prepare a solution like this and then add it to water you obtained from a creek , lake , river , or wherever else it ’ s obtained .
However , once you get used to the concept and the bulletproof nature of the science , the strangeness will subside .
Just as long as one utilizes the pure , proper form of granulated calcium hypochlorite , nothing scented or adulterated , it should work fine .
Chemicals that are harmful to the body , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else , may happen to be in the water of certain lakes , streams , or wherever you search , although certainly nowhere near every source of water is contaminated .
One crucial layer of protection from contaminants in water can be added by the use of cheap , readily available granulated calcium hypochlorite .
Purification with bleach is a very simple process .
Once the teaspoon of pool shock has dissolved in the 2 gallons of water , you can mix it into the water you want to purify at the ratio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water .
Before drinking the final batch of water , be sure to let the chlorine-water solution sit for at least 30 minutes before drinking .
The pathogens you ’ re trying to kill take just about that long to become harmless .
Here are the instructions straight from the EPA website : *Bleach may contain 6 or 8.25 % sodium hypochlorite .
Some of the benefits of using pool shock The benefit of purifying water with granular calcium hypochlorite is that the solution of “ chlorine ” made with 1 teaspoon to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small batches of purified water , and that ’ s all that is needed at the time .
Bleach or makeshift chlorine solution both degrade and go bad fairly quickly , so if this is kept in granular form , it ’ s only necessary to make small batches at a time that won ’ t degrade and go to waste .
You can store pool shock to make hundreds of gallons of bleach in a tiny area compared to the space you ’ d need to store a similar quantity of bleach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a variety of places : any place that sells pools or jacuzzis will have it on hand .
Even discount stores like Walmart will have pool shock during swimming pool season .
You can also find it on Amazon for less than $ 20 .
Even if you have plenty of bleach on hand , it never hurts to have some long-lasting pool shock in your emergency supplies .

by Cassius K.
We’ve all seen photos of the empty shelves in stores across American, and one thing that has become increasingly difficult to find is bleach.
Typically, a bottle of bleach should contain between 6 and 8.25% sodium hypochlorite, a more dilute solution that one might expect, similar to an item such as peroxide. Unfortunately for people stockpiling bleach, the potency of your product may diminish fairly rapidly over time. The dilute solution of bleach held by many people could decrease in potency as much as 20% in one year, and that’s if it was stored in “perfect” conditions of at or below room temperature.
Not only is bleach important for cleaning during an outbreak of pandemic illness, but it can also be used to purify water.
You can make your own bleach with pool shock.
The good news is, you can make your own bleach with granular calcium hypochlorite, the primary component of typical pool shock. It’s essential to confirm that your pool shock is not contaminated by other chemicals, such as algicides. Only HTH is acceptable for purifying your water.
In other words, it’s a different chemical composition of bleach. The granular form of calcium hypochlorite can be used to substitute your typical bleach, sodium hypochlorite, in killing pathogens to purify water (not to remove chemical, non-biological toxins, of course).
A forum post that quotes an EPA website says that a 5 lb bottle of pool shock can produce around 649 gallons of “stock chlorine,” something resembling about 649 gallons of bleach. Every single gallon of stock chlorine is capable of disinfecting around 200 gallons of water. So, if 640 gallons of that are possible to produce with simple water and a 5 lb bottle of pool shock, that seems extremely useful.
Make bleach with pool shock.
For an easily understood equation, here’s something people can do.
The EPA recommends that your household bleach be used at a ratio of 8 drops per gallon of water to purify water, noting that the product must be free of adulterants essentially, or in their words, only products suitable for sanitization as shown on the label.
For use of pool shock, the ratio to purify water is around 1 part “chlorine solution” to 100 parts water.
First, take a heaping teaspoon, not tablespoon, of granular calcium hypochlorite and dissolve it in 2 gallons (8 liters) of water.
DO NOT DRINK THIS: this is the recipe for a “chlorine solution,” used at that ratio of 1 part chlorine solution to 100 parts water. This is your bleach. It can be used for cleaning or water purification.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
How to purify water with bleach
It may seem strange or dangerous to prepare a solution like this and then add it to water you obtained from a creek, lake, river, or wherever else it’s obtained. However, once you get used to the concept and the bulletproof nature of the science, the strangeness will subside. Just as long as one utilizes the pure, proper form of granulated calcium hypochlorite, nothing scented or adulterated, it should work fine.
Chemicals that are harmful to the body, such as mercury, PCB’s or whatever else, may happen to be in the water of certain lakes, streams, or wherever you search, although certainly nowhere near every source of water is contaminated. One crucial layer of protection from contaminants in water can be added by the use of cheap, readily available granulated calcium hypochlorite.
Purification with bleach is a very simple process.
Once the teaspoon of pool shock has dissolved in the 2 gallons of water, you can mix it into the water you want to purify at the ratio of 1 part makeshift-chlorine to 100 parts water.
Before drinking the final batch of water, be sure to let the chlorine-water solution sit for at least 30 minutes before drinking. The pathogens you’re trying to kill take just about that long to become harmless.
Here are the instructions straight from the EPA website:
Disinfect water using household bleach, if you can’t boil water. Only use regular, unscented chlorine bleach products that are suitable for disinfection and sanitization as indicated on the label. The label may say that the active ingredient contains 6 or 8.25% of sodium hypochlorite. Do not use scented, color safe, or bleaches with added cleaners. If water is cloudy, let it settle and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel, or coffee filter. Locate a clean dropper from your medicine cabinet or emergency supply kit. Locate a fresh liquid chlorine bleach or liquid chlorine bleach that is stored at room temperatures for less than one year. Use the table below as a guide to decide the amount of bleach you should add to the water, for example, 8 drops of 6% bleach, or 6 drops of 8.25% bleach, to each gallon of water. Double the amount of bleach if the water is cloudy, colored, or very cold. Stir and let stand for 30 minutes. The water should have a slight chlorine odor. If it doesn’t, repeat the dosage and let stand for another 15 minutes before use. If the chlorine taste is too strong, pour the water from one clean container to another and let it stand for a few hours before use. (source)
Volume of Water Amount of 6% Bleach to Add* Amount of 8.25% Bleach to Add* 1 quart/liter 2 drops 2 drops 1 gallon 8 drops 6 drops 2 gallons 16 drops (1/4 tsp) 12 drops (1/8 teaspoon) 4 gallons 1/3 teaspoon 1/4 teaspoon 8 gallons 2/3 teaspoon 1/2 teaspoon
*Bleach may contain 6 or 8.25% sodium hypochlorite.
Some of the benefits of using pool shock
The benefit of purifying water with granular calcium hypochlorite is that the solution of “chlorine” made with 1 teaspoon to 2 gallons, can be used for small batches of purified water, and that’s all that is needed at the time.
Bleach or makeshift chlorine solution both degrade and go bad fairly quickly, so if this is kept in granular form, it’s only necessary to make small batches at a time that won’t degrade and go to waste. You can store pool shock to make hundreds of gallons of bleach in a tiny area compared to the space you’d need to store a similar quantity of bleach.
You can find pool shock in a variety of places: any place that sells pools or jacuzzis will have it on hand. Even discount stores like Walmart will have pool shock during swimming pool season. You can also find it on Amazon for less than $20.
Even if you have plenty of bleach on hand, it never hurts to have some long-lasting pool shock in your emergency supplies.
About Cassius
Cassius K is a writer from North Highlands, California.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Markets Trying to Find a Near-Term Bottom

Two things I have been predicting for years that most people just can ’ t get have just started to happen .
You know when a person keeps going into cardiac arrest or flatlining , the doctors keep shocking them with the defibrillator until they finally give up and pronounce the patient dead ?
I say the economy was finally pronounced “ dead ” on Monday when stocks crashed 3,000 points , the highest ever , after the greatest injection by the Fed ever – $ trillions since Thursday , with a peak on Sunday night .
1 ) The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t stop a crisis by printing every more money , as it ’ s just “ denial ” and “ something for nothing , ” and 2 ) The first crash out of a massive stock bubble like this tends to be 30 % to 49 % , or 42 % average within 2.5 months .
This is all happening now .
Everyone told me it couldn ’ t happen – central banks and governments wouldn ’ t let it .
The market is making its first attempt to find at least a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think we are there yet , but we may get a decent bounce first to allow the risk-averse to get out .
The S & P 500 has just tested the critical bottom trendline through the lows since the 2009 bottom .
The market keeps crashing to slightly lower lows since it started falling apart last week and hit its greatest one-day crash just over 3,000 points on Monday .
Despite pledging $ 3-5 trillion in repo funding and $ 700 billion in QE bond-buying , the markets fell over 3,000 points on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intraday , then bouncing and closing above it .
Stocks are limit down overnight and will likely retest Tuesday ’ s lows or go a bit lower today .
Then it must rally and close back near this line near 2,500 or it is likely to fail further .
Where is the next support ?
I showed on Monday the 2-year megaphone pattern in the Nasdaq that projected down to 5,500 just ahead , or down 44 % from the top .
This is the same pattern on the S & P 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2,080 or around 39 % .
That one more crash would bring a fifth wave down that would look more completed and hit more credible targets for a sustainable low and a rebound that is likely to retrace 50 % to 62 % of the crash into the summer , or possibly as late as the election .
There ’ s a mountain of stimulus waiting for when the virus scare first recedes .
A short-term bounce that fails could get to near 2,690 on the S & P 500 and 7,900 on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be recommended , especially for the more risk averse .
Don ’ t try to get the very top here , as a reversal will likely be quick .
I will report more next week , but I am tracking the virus acceleration in critical places like Italy , Iran and Spain using S-Curve patterns to get a better idea of when this trend could start to slow and give some daylight for the markets .
That could be as soon as the end of March to mid-April .

By Harry Dent
Two things I have been predicting for years that most people just can’t get have just started to happen.
You know when a person keeps going into cardiac arrest or flatlining, the doctors keep shocking them with the defibrillator until they finally give up and pronounce the patient dead? I say the economy was finally pronounced “dead” on Monday when stocks crashed 3,000 points, the highest ever, after the greatest injection by the Fed ever – $trillions since Thursday, with a peak on Sunday night.
1) The markets finally realized that you can’t stop a crisis by printing every more money, as it’s just “denial” and “something for nothing,” and
2) The first crash out of a massive stock bubble like this tends to be 30% to 49%, or 42% average within 2.5 months.
This is all happening now. Everyone told me it couldn’t happen – central banks and governments wouldn’t let it.
The market is making its first attempt to find at least a short-term bottom. I don’t think we are there yet, but we may get a decent bounce first to allow the risk-averse to get out.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The S&P 500 has just tested the critical bottom trendline through the lows since the 2009 bottom.
The market keeps crashing to slightly lower lows since it started falling apart last week and hit its greatest one-day crash just over 3,000 points on Monday. Despite pledging $3-5 trillion in repo funding and $700 billion in QE bond-buying, the markets fell over 3,000 points on Monday. It keeps breaking just below intraday, then bouncing and closing above it.
Stocks are limit down overnight and will likely retest Tuesday’s lows or go a bit lower today. Then it must rally and close back near this line near 2,500 or it is likely to fail further.
Where is the next support? I showed on Monday the 2-year megaphone pattern in the Nasdaq that projected down to 5,500 just ahead, or down 44% from the top. This is the same pattern on the S&P 500 and it projects a fall to around 2,080 or around 39%.
That one more crash would bring a fifth wave down that would look more completed and hit more credible targets for a sustainable low and a rebound that is likely to retrace 50% to 62% of the crash into the summer, or possibly as late as the election. There’s a mountain of stimulus waiting for when the virus scare first recedes.
A short-term bounce that fails could get to near 2,690 on the S&P 500 and 7,900 on the Nasdaq. Selling into that would be recommended, especially for the more risk averse. Don’t try to get the very top here, as a reversal will likely be quick.
I will report more next week, but I am tracking the virus acceleration in critical places like Italy, Iran and Spain using S-Curve patterns to get a better idea of when this trend could start to slow and give some daylight for the markets. That could be as soon as the end of March to mid-April.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Keep Calm, Bear Markets Are Temporary

Keep Calm, Bear Markets Are Temporary

That was President Donald Trump on Monday , responding to a question on whether the U.S. economy could be sliding into a recession .
I don ’ t know about you , but I found this to be an extraordinary admission from the president , who until very recently has maintained an “ all will be fine ” attitude with regard to the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on the economy .
We may very well be headed for a recession—some economists believe it ’ s already here—but we ’ re most definitely in a bear market , normally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 20 percent from their peak .
Not only that , but this selloff has been several times steeper than the past two bear markets .
Whereas it took stocks approximately 240 trading days to fall more than 20 percent during the tech bubble , and about 190 days during the financial crisis , U.S. equities lost more than 20 percent in under 20 trading days as a result of fears over the coronavirus .
As of Tuesday ’ s close , the S & P 500 was down 25 percent from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it happened , the Treasury market was warning us ( again ) all along .
Most downturns of the past have been preceded by a yield curve inversion , which happens when the longer-term yield falls below the shorter-term yield , and this time was no exception .
The chart below shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus the three-month Treasury yield .
In each case , a recession hit in the months after the yield curve first inverted and began to recover .
Now the question is what investors should do .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since we ’ ve had to deal with the unique challenges of a bear market , and there are countless millennials ( and younger ) to whom this is a brand new phenomenon .
A couple of things to remember upfront : Don ’ t panic .
Bear markets can be painful , but they ’ re temporary .
More importantly , if you didn ’ t raise cash in December or January , before the full effects of the virus began to be felt , it ’ s probably too late to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good time to do some bargain hunting for high-quality stocks right now , but generally speaking , I wouldn ’ t be trying to sell equities .
I understand the need for liquidity .
That ’ s one of the reasons why I always recommend having some physical gold in your portfolio , to convert into cash if needs be .
The yellow metal just had its worst week since 2011 for that very reason , falling 9.3 percent as investors took profits amid the plunge in equities .
“ Recessions have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writes Dr. Martin Murenbeeld in this week ’ s Gold Monitor .
“ Gold demand from China and India typically declines… and the need for liquidity also pressures the gold price—gold being a liquidity of last resort.
” On the plus side , says Martin , “ the price recovers quickly once the full force of policy responses are unleashed.
” So what are those responses this time ?
While the Trump administration seeks as much as $ 850 billion in emergency stimulus , perhaps part of it in the form of $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some are no doubt looking to the Federal Reserve for immediate relief .
The problem is , the central bank is quickly running out of bullets .
Take a look at the table below .
Since 1969 , the Fed has lowered rates 7.4 percent on average in response to recessionary pressure .
Today , that ’ s simply not possible—unless , of course , the Fed took its lead from the Bank of Japan ( BoJ ) and European Central Bank ( ECB ) and dropped rates below 0 percent .
Potentially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Is every bear market cut from the same cloth ?
Hardly .
In a research report , Goldman Sachs analysts break bear markets down into three different types : structural , cyclical and event-driven .
Structural bear markets have been triggered by structural imbalances and financial bubbles—think the global financial crisis .
Cyclical bear markets have occurred at the end of business cycles—they ’ ve happened as a result of rising interest rates , impending recessions and/or falling corporate profits .
And finally , event-driven bear markets have been triggered by one-off shocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , oil price crashes and emerging market crises .
We appear to be in an event-driven bear market , and the good news , from a financial point of view , is that of the three types , event-driven bear markets have historically been less severe than structural and cyclical downturns .
Not only have declines been less painful , but they also haven ’ t lasted as long and recovery times have been shorter .
There are a couple of caveats I ’ d like to point out , though .
Number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this has ever been triggered by a virus or other disease outbreak , according to Goldman Sachs , so we ’ re literally in unchartered territory .
( The U.S. market actually rose throughout most of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 – 1920 , which killed tens of millions of people worldwide . )
Therefore , we don ’ t know if monetary or fiscal interventions , which may have helped ameliorate previous bear markets and recessions , will be as effective this time .
And number two , there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market will become a cyclical bear market .
As I ’ ve shared with you a number of times before , we are 11 years into the economic expansion , with debt levels and leveraging at all-time highs .
Meanwhile , the U.S. government is already running a $ 1 trillion deficit .
This may limit the government ’ s ability to prop up the economy should it come crashing down .
The Heat Is On for Trump ’ s Reelection Bid At the same time , it should calm markets somewhat to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than to be highly motivated to soften the economic impact of COVID-19 , which made landfall in the same year that he hopes to be reelected .
No U.S. president in modern memory , going back at least to Eisenhower , has won a second term while there was a recession .
Gerald Ford , his immediate successor Jimmy Carter and George H.W .
Bush all lost their second-term bids in large part because the economy was on shaky ground when voters headed for the polls .
In all other years when a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 2012 , the economy was either expanding or at least stable .
As Democratic political strategist James Carville famously said , “ It ’ s the economy , stupid.
” I believe that if we can substantially slow the rate of infection and flatten the curve , the economy will recover strongly , and stocks will follow .
You ’ ve probably seen the visual below being shared on social media a number of times already .
Practicing social distancing can help level out the rate of new cases , preventing our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a vaccine can be deployed .
For those who are doubtful of these efforts , I think it ’ s constructive to look at how successful China has been in combating the virus .
The country has taken extreme measures , which has had the effect of lowering the number of existed cases on a daily basis for the past month .
From February 17 , when the number hit a high of more than 58,000 , cases have fallen roughly 83 percent through March 15 .
This admittedly will have a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth , but it demonstrates that COVID-19 can be stopped in its tracks as long as there ’ s a plan in place and precautionary measures are followed .
Up until this point I ’ ve mostly been talking finance .
It ’ s important to be concerned about your portfolio , but it ’ s even more important to be vigilant about your health and the health of loved ones .
The CDC has provided a number of recommendations about how to prevent the spread of COVID-19 , as well as what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a loved one may have been exposed .
I urge you to familiarize yourself with the recommendations by clicking here .

by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors
“It may be.”
That was President Donald Trump on Monday, responding to a question on whether the U.S. economy could be sliding into a recession. I don’t know about you, but I found this to be an extraordinary admission from the president, who until very recently has maintained an “all will be fine” attitude with regard to the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on the economy.
We may very well be headed for a recession—some economists believe it’s already here—but we’re most definitely in a bear market, normally defined as occurring when stocks are off more than 20 percent from their peak.
Not only that, but this selloff has been several times steeper than the past two bear markets. Whereas it took stocks approximately 240 trading days to fall more than 20 percent during the tech bubble, and about 190 days during the financial crisis, U.S. equities lost more than 20 percent in under 20 trading days as a result of fears over the coronavirus. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 25 percent from its high on February 19.
click to enlarge
As it happened, the Treasury market was warning us (again) all along. Most downturns of the past have been preceded by a yield curve inversion, which happens when the longer-term yield falls below the shorter-term yield, and this time was no exception. The chart below shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus the three-month Treasury yield. In each case, a recession hit in the months after the yield curve first inverted and began to recover.
click to enlarge
Awaiting Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus
Now the question is what investors should do. It’s been more than a decade since we’ve had to deal with the unique challenges of a bear market, and there are countless millennials (and younger) to whom this is a brand new phenomenon.
A couple of things to remember upfront: Don’t panic. Bear markets can be painful, but they’re temporary. More importantly, if you didn’t raise cash in December or January, before the full effects of the virus began to be felt, it’s probably too late to do so now. It may be a good time to do some bargain hunting for high-quality stocks right now, but generally speaking, I wouldn’t be trying to sell equities.
I understand the need for liquidity. That’s one of the reasons why I always recommend having some physical gold in your portfolio, to convert into cash if needs be. The yellow metal just had its worst week since 2011 for that very reason, falling 9.3 percent as investors took profits amid the plunge in equities.
“Recessions have never been positive for gold,” writes Dr. Martin Murenbeeld in this week’s Gold Monitor. “Gold demand from China and India typically declines… and the need for liquidity also pressures the gold price—gold being a liquidity of last resort.”
On the plus side, says Martin, “the price recovers quickly once the full force of policy responses are unleashed.”
So what are those responses this time? While the Trump administration seeks as much as $850 billion in emergency stimulus, perhaps part of it in the form of $1,000 checks to every American adult, some are no doubt looking to the Federal Reserve for immediate relief. The problem is, the central bank is quickly running out of bullets.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Take a look at the table below. Since 1969, the Fed has lowered rates 7.4 percent on average in response to recessionary pressure. Today, that’s simply not possible—unless, of course, the Fed took its lead from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) and dropped rates below 0 percent.
The Federal Reserve Is Out of Ammo RECESSION TOTAL RATE CUTS December 1969 – November 1970 -8.3% November 1973 – March 1975 -8.1% January 1980 – July 1980 -11.0% July 1981 – November 1982 -11.5% July 1990 – March 1991 -3.0% March 2001 – November 2001 -4.8% December 2007 – June 2009 -5.0% Average -7.4% Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Global Investors
Potentially Not as Bad as Past Downturns?
Is every bear market cut from the same cloth? Hardly. In a research report, Goldman Sachs analysts break bear markets down into three different types: structural, cyclical and event-driven. Structural bear markets have been triggered by structural imbalances and financial bubbles—think the global financial crisis. Cyclical bear markets have occurred at the end of business cycles—they’ve happened as a result of rising interest rates, impending recessions and/or falling corporate profits. And finally, event-driven bear markets have been triggered by one-off shocks to the economy, such as wars, oil price crashes and emerging market crises.
We appear to be in an event-driven bear market, and the good news, from a financial point of view, is that of the three types, event-driven bear markets have historically been less severe than structural and cyclical downturns. Not only have declines been less painful, but they also haven’t lasted as long and recovery times have been shorter.
click to enlarge
There are a couple of caveats I’d like to point out, though. Number one, no bear market such as this has ever been triggered by a virus or other disease outbreak, according to Goldman Sachs, so we’re literally in unchartered territory. (The U.S. market actually rose throughout most of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 – 1920, which killed tens of millions of people worldwide.) Therefore, we don’t know if monetary or fiscal interventions, which may have helped ameliorate previous bear markets and recessions, will be as effective this time.
And number two, there’s always the risk that this event-driven bear market will become a cyclical bear market. As I’ve shared with you a number of times before, we are 11 years into the economic expansion, with debt levels and leveraging at all-time highs. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is already running a $1 trillion deficit. This may limit the government’s ability to prop up the economy should it come crashing down.
The Heat Is On for Trump’s Reelection Bid
At the same time, it should calm markets somewhat to know that Trump has no other choice than to be highly motivated to soften the economic impact of COVID-19, which made landfall in the same year that he hopes to be reelected. No U.S. president in modern memory, going back at least to Eisenhower, has won a second term while there was a recession. Gerald Ford, his immediate successor Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush all lost their second-term bids in large part because the economy was on shaky ground when voters headed for the polls. In all other years when a president was seeking reelection, between 1956 and 2012, the economy was either expanding or at least stable.
As Democratic political strategist James Carville famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
I believe that if we can substantially slow the rate of infection and flatten the curve, the economy will recover strongly, and stocks will follow. You’ve probably seen the visual below being shared on social media a number of times already. Practicing social distancing can help level out the rate of new cases, preventing our health care system from being overwhelmed before a vaccine can be deployed.
click to enlarge
For those who are doubtful of these efforts, I think it’s constructive to look at how successful China has been in combating the virus. The country has taken extreme measures, which has had the effect of lowering the number of existed cases on a daily basis for the past month. From February 17, when the number hit a high of more than 58,000, cases have fallen roughly 83 percent through March 15. This admittedly will have a big impact on China’s first-quarter GDP growth, but it demonstrates that COVID-19 can be stopped in its tracks as long as there’s a plan in place and precautionary measures are followed.
click to enlarge
Up until this point I’ve mostly been talking finance. It’s important to be concerned about your portfolio, but it’s even more important to be vigilant about your health and the health of loved ones. The CDC has provided a number of recommendations about how to prevent the spread of COVID-19, as well as what to do if you suspect you or a loved one may have been exposed. I urge you to familiarize yourself with the recommendations by clicking here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--In The Midst Of Global Coronavirus Panic, Facebook Decides Now Is A Good Time To Roll Out Their All-

In The Midst Of Global Coronavirus Panic, Facebook Decides Now Is A Good Time To Roll Out Their All-New FB5 Interface Design For Desktops

In the history of Facebook , there have been four major redesigns .
The latest one , FB5 , otherwise known as The New Facebook , might be the most dramatic of them all .
It ’ s a total shift in how Facebook looks and works on desktop and mobile .
While doing routine maintenance on my computer today , I cleaned out all my cookies and web cache , logged out of everything and then restarted .
Truly I was not prepared for what awaited me when I logged back into Facebook , the site ( pun intended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ akin to digital snow blindness .
It was very bright and very white , for a moment or two I was truly baffled .
Then I remembered that this was the all-new Facebook interface design that finally got rolled out .
And yes , it comes with Dark Mode if white is not your favorite flavor .
Being a long-term user of the platform , I can well recall other major updates like the news feed in the home section , and various others that at first I didn ’ t like but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a feeling that it ’ s going to be the same with FB5 , I am not used to the cleanness of it certainly , but as someone who has spent 20 years in UI/UX design , almost instantly it began to grow on me .
Maybe this is just the diversion people need to get their mind off of the coronavirus pandemonium , if even just for a short time .
If you are not seeing the new look of FB5 on your desktop Facebook page , do what I did .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ your web browser , log out and then log back in again and you should see it .
Please comment below how you do or do not like it .
The New Facebook FB5 update : How the all-new design looks and works FROM POCKET LINT : Don ’ t have a meltdown .
It ’ s been many years since a massive design change came to Facebook , so this news is both welcomed and much-needed , even if it ’ s jarring .
To help you navigate the change , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What is The New Facebook ?
At the F8 2019 conference , Facebook executives announced the social network plans to push out a massive redesign called The New Facebook .
It ’ s an interface update that will place a bigger emphasis on Groups and Events – two of the biggest reasons people visit Facebook on a daily basis .
This subsequently also means that the News Feed will be featured way less in The New Facebook .
Both the desktop website and the mobile app will automatically receive the update , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also modernizing its look for the new decade .
Facebook described it as a cleaner design , with more of an all-white look and even a dark mode option .
When will The New Facebook arrive ?
Facebook originally promised the redesign would begin immediately rolling out to mobile users , with desktop users to follow later .
As of January 2020 , the update for desktop users is missing in action .
But , according to CNET , Facebook has finally begun giving some users access to the new look on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plans to offer the update “ more broadly ” by spring 2020 .
It ’ s already rolling out to mobile users .
To get it , make sure you ’ re running the latest version of the Facebook mobile app .
How does The New Facebook look and work ?
Visually , Facebook ’ s redesign is carried throughout the desktop and mobile apps .
It ’ s a cleaner , brighter , more contemporary Facebook .
Here ’ s a look at CEO Mark Zuckerberg showing off the mostly-white design at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re not a fan of all the bright look , you ’ ll be happy to know that , because dark modes have become a huge trend in the past year , Facebook has decided to offer its own dark mode for web users in this update .
( Go here to learn how to get this dark mode now for Messenger . )
Here ’ s a quick video from Facebook showing off the look : Perhaps the biggest change to Facebook is the News Feed .
Facebook is doubling down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has suggested we can expect a major disruption in how we get our content from Facebook in the future .
It floated the notion that friends and family should be the core of our social lives .
So , Facebook Groups will now be prioritised and surfaced more to you .
That doesn ’ t mean the News Feed is dead .
In fact , press imagery for The New Facebook still shows a stream of status updates .
Facebook said the Groups Tab has been overhauled to make finding new groups that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The feed for groups will also serve up recent activity within groups you ’ re a member of and may even replace the News Feed as the default feed .
You ’ ll also see more connections among groups and the Facebook features you use the most , such as Marketplace or Facebook Watch .
There will also be new features events and for specific communities , like Chat for Gaming Groups , as well as interaction improvements for Facebook Live and those who use it for buying and selling purposes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ About The New Facebook FB5 Design

by Geoffrey Grider
In the history of Facebook, there have been four major redesigns. The latest one, FB5, otherwise known as The New Facebook, might be the most dramatic of them all. It’s a total shift in how Facebook looks and works on desktop and mobile.
While doing routine maintenance on my computer today, I cleaned out all my cookies and web cache, logged out of everything and then restarted. Truly I was not prepared for what awaited me when I logged back into Facebook, the site (pun intended) that greeted my eyes was something akin to digital snow blindness. It was very bright and very white, for a moment or two I was truly baffled. Then I remembered that this was the all-new Facebook interface design that finally got rolled out. And yes, it comes with Dark Mode if white is not your favorite flavor.
Being a long-term user of the platform, I can well recall other major updates like the news feed in the home section, and various others that at first I didn’t like but then came to appreciate. I have a feeling that it’s going to be the same with FB5, I am not used to the cleanness of it certainly, but as someone who has spent 20 years in UI/UX design, almost instantly it began to grow on me. Maybe this is just the diversion people need to get their mind off of the coronavirus pandemonium, if even just for a short time.
If you are not seeing the new look of FB5 on your desktop Facebook page, do what I did. Clean out all cookies and cache from your web browser, log out and then log back in again and you should see it. Please comment below how you do or do not like it.
The New Facebook FB5 update: How the all-new design looks and works
FROM POCKET LINT: Don’t have a meltdown. It’s been many years since a massive design change came to Facebook, so this news is both welcomed and much-needed, even if it’s jarring. To help you navigate the change, we’re breaking down what to expect.
What is The New Facebook?
At the F8 2019 conference, Facebook executives announced the social network plans to push out a massive redesign called The New Facebook. It’s an interface update that will place a bigger emphasis on Groups and Events – two of the biggest reasons people visit Facebook on a daily basis. This subsequently also means that the News Feed will be featured way less in The New Facebook.
Both the desktop website and the mobile app will automatically receive the update, hopefully making Facebook easier to navigate while also modernizing its look for the new decade. Facebook described it as a cleaner design, with more of an all-white look and even a dark mode option.
When will The New Facebook arrive?
Facebook originally promised the redesign would begin immediately rolling out to mobile users, with desktop users to follow later.
As of January 2020, the update for desktop users is missing in action. But, according to CNET, Facebook has finally begun giving some users access to the new look on the web. Facebook itself has confirmed it plans to offer the update “more broadly” by spring 2020.
It’s already rolling out to mobile users. To get it, make sure you’re running the latest version of the Facebook mobile app.
How does The New Facebook look and work?
White design
Visually, Facebook’s redesign is carried throughout the desktop and mobile apps. It’s a cleaner, brighter, more contemporary Facebook. Here’s a look at CEO Mark Zuckerberg showing off the mostly-white design at the F8 2019 conference:
FACEBOOK
Dark mode
If you’re not a fan o
If you’re not a fan of all the bright look, you’ll be happy to know that, because dark modes have become a huge trend in the past year, Facebook has decided to offer its own dark mode for web users in this update. (Go here to learn how to get this dark mode now for Messenger.)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Here’s a quick video from Facebook showing off the look:
News Feed and Groups
Perhaps the biggest change to Facebook is the News Feed. Facebook is doubling down on group communities and private interactions and has suggested we can expect a major disruption in how we get our content from Facebook in the future. It floated the notion that friends and family should be the core of our social lives. So, Facebook Groups will now be prioritised and surfaced more to you.
That doesn’t mean the News Feed is dead. In fact, press imagery for The New Facebook still shows a stream of status updates.
Facebook said the Groups Tab has been overhauled to make finding new groups that you might be interested in even easier. The feed for groups will also serve up recent activity within groups you’re a member of and may even replace the News Feed as the default feed. You’ll also see more connections among groups and the Facebook features you use the most, such as Marketplace or Facebook Watch.
Other features
There will also be new features events and for specific communities, like Chat for Gaming Groups, as well as interaction improvements for Facebook Live and those who use it for buying and selling purposes. READ MORE
Everything You Need To Know About The New Facebook FB5 Design


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Why ‘Price-Insensitive Buying’ Is To Blame For Many Of The Major Economic Problems We Now Face

I recently made the distinction here , with a little help from Ben Graham , between investing and speculating .
Over the past decade , markets have become overrun with speculators while investors have become an endangered species .
“ Price-insensitive buying , ” as it has been called , has come to dominate markets from fixed income to equities and it is largely to blame for the economic problems we now face .
It all began with the Fed ’ s initiation of “ quantitative easing ” which was designed to push down treasury yields and force investors farther @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with “ zero interest rate policy ” for the better part of the last decade , investors eagerly moved into corporate credit in an epic “ reach for yield.
” As a result of the all of this easy money , American companies took on an inordinate amount of debt resulting in the greatest collective leverage relative to the economy we have ever seen .
Rather than putting all of the cash raised through new debt issuance to work in productive ways , let alone just saving it for a rainy day , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in history , buying back trillions in stock and hollowing out their balance sheets in the process .
This was done primarily to manipulate their shares higher to enrich executives exercising stock options and selling into the market at the very same time they directed the company to be buying .
Meanwhile , investors became enamored with the idea of passive investing which was reinforced by the performance of stock prices pushed higher by corporate demand .
Furthermore , the trend towards passive investing enabled this process to extend as far as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatsoever meant companies were not held to account by shareholders for their blatant financial engineering which promoted short-term stock price gains at the cost of long-term financial strength and sustainability .
Now that we are hitting another rough patch in the economy , a very serious one to be sure , these same companies are left without a safety net in the form of cash saved for a rainy day .
They sold it , in order to pad the pockets of top management .
At the same time , they decided to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the form of record debt loads .
Still , they have the gall to beg for a bailout from the federal government .
And they will , in all likelihood , get it .
The potential exploding of this corporate debt bomb presents a terrific risk to the broad economy .
For this reason alone companies are likely to be supported by the government .
However , with a trillion-dollar annual fiscal deficit already , the cost of supporting an economy that has become uniquely fragile due to corporate debt loads may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nation ’ s currency at risk .
And a sovereign debt crisis could be a much bigger problem than a corporate debt crisis .
At some point , though , we should take a step back and study the chain of events here .
It was the bailout made necessary by the financial crisis that created both the financial environment and moral hazard that sowed the seeds of the current crisis .
The Fed ’ s price-insensitive buying of treasuries inspired investors ’ price-insensitive buying of corporate debt which enabled corporations ’ price-insensitive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inspired and was also enabled by price-insensitive buying on the part of equity investors .
The moral of the story here is that widespread price-insensitive buying eventually guarantees bad outcomes .
Central bankers , corporations and investors alike should hopefully recognize at this point that only through disciplined analysis and discerning judgement can we have both a sustainable economic system and financial markets that operate efficiently at deploying capital effectively .

by jessefelder
I recently made the distinction here, with a little help from Ben Graham, between investing and speculating. Over the past decade, markets have become overrun with speculators while investors have become an endangered species. “Price-insensitive buying,” as it has been called, has come to dominate markets from fixed income to equities and it is largely to blame for the economic problems we now face.
It all began with the Fed’s initiation of “quantitative easing” which was designed to push down treasury yields and force investors farther out on the risk curve. Paired with “zero interest rate policy” for the better part of the last decade, investors eagerly moved into corporate credit in an epic “reach for yield.” As a result of the all of this easy money, American companies took on an inordinate amount of debt resulting in the greatest collective leverage relative to the economy we have ever seen.
Rather than putting all of the cash raised through new debt issuance to work in productive ways, let alone just saving it for a rainy day, companies embarked on the greatest debt-for-equity swap in history, buying back trillions in stock and hollowing out their balance sheets in the process. This was done primarily to manipulate their shares higher to enrich executives exercising stock options and selling into the market at the very same time they directed the company to be buying.
Meanwhile, investors became enamored with the idea of passive investing which was reinforced by the performance of stock prices pushed higher by corporate demand. Furthermore, the trend towards passive investing enabled this process to extend as far as it did as the abandonment of any analysis whatsoever meant companies were not held to account by shareholders for their blatant financial engineering which promoted short-term stock price gains at the cost of long-term financial strength and sustainability.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now that we are hitting another rough patch in the economy, a very serious one to be sure, these same companies are left without a safety net in the form of cash saved for a rainy day. They sold it, in order to pad the pockets of top management. At the same time, they decided to take on more risk than ever before in the form of record debt loads. Still, they have the gall to beg for a bailout from the federal government. And they will, in all likelihood, get it.
The potential exploding of this corporate debt bomb presents a terrific risk to the broad economy. For this reason alone companies are likely to be supported by the government. However, with a trillion-dollar annual fiscal deficit already, the cost of supporting an economy that has become uniquely fragile due to corporate debt loads may be so great as to put the nation’s currency at risk. And a sovereign debt crisis could be a much bigger problem than a corporate debt crisis.
At some point, though, we should take a step back and study the chain of events here. It was the bailout made necessary by the financial crisis that created both the financial environment and moral hazard that sowed the seeds of the current crisis. The Fed’s price-insensitive buying of treasuries inspired investors’ price-insensitive buying of corporate debt which enabled corporations’ price-insensitive buying of their own shares which both inspired and was also enabled by price-insensitive buying on the part of equity investors.
The moral of the story here is that widespread price-insensitive buying eventually guarantees bad outcomes. Central bankers, corporations and investors alike should hopefully recognize at this point that only through disciplined analysis and discerning judgement can we have both a sustainable economic system and financial markets that operate efficiently at deploying capital effectively.