investmentwatchblog--2020-09-10--Technicals still work: Lovely bounce play signaled in advance. But also note the trend is broken.

Jim Millstein , the co-chairman of Guggenheim Securities , said financial markets are headed into a period of “ significant @ @ @ @ @ expected to spike as we move closer to the end of the year .
The @ @ @ @ @ laid bare by disclosures on so-called criticised loans , which are flashing warning signals about @ @ @ @ @ to pay .

Technicals still work: Lovely bounce play signaled in advance.
But also note the trend is broken. pic.twitter.com/dQnVzGwi6H — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 9, 2020
Tech junk bond yields are still near record lows. Investment grade for this sector look the same. Tech stocks don’t belong at these valuations.
And neither do bonds. The Fed better make sure all these assets have a buyer. pic.twitter.com/RbSRjP8qMK — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 8, 2020
Jim Millstein, the co-chairman of Guggenheim Securities, said financial markets are headed into a period of “significant volatility” with default rates expected to spike as we move closer to the end of the year.
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The darkening outlook of banks is laid bare by disclosures on so-called criticised loans, which are flashing warning signals about a borrower’s ability to pay.
CREDIT CARD BALANCES pic.twitter.com/EL7RDVSZmc — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Students slam Pelosi and Cuomo for COVID hypocrisy…Eduardo Neret reacts on Newsmax

Campus Reform Digital Reporter Eduardo Neret joined National Report on Newsmax to discuss his latest video where he asked students @ @ @ @ @ the House Nancy Pelosi and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo violating their own coronavirus lockdown @ @ @ @ @ public and not wearing masks .

Campus Reform Digital Reporter Eduardo Neret joined National Report on Newsmax to discuss his latest video where he asked students about politicians like Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo violating their own coronavirus lockdown rules by going out and public and not wearing masks.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Saudi Aramco Is Now Suffering The Consequences Of A Failed Oil Price War

It was evident to anyone with even half a brain that the last Saudi-instigated oil price war would end in abject failure for the Saudis , just as the previous 2014-2016 effort did and for the very same reasons .
For Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ( MbS ) , one of the masterminds behind the oil war – the economic and political problems that his country now face appear to come a very distant second to preserving whatever he thinks is left of his own reputation , with the most obvious public manifestation of this being the aftermath of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IPO ) for hydrocarbons giant , Saudi Aramco ( Aramco ) .
Consequently , in order to stand by one of the inducements required to inveigle anyone to buy the shares – in the triple-locked guaranteed dividend payout – swingeing cuts to key projects for Saudi Arabia are now being announced .
Despite the 50 per cent plunge in Aramco ’ s net profit for the first half of this year – a result of the Saudi-led oil price war at a time when demand was already choked off by the COVID-19 outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand over US $ 18.75 billion in this quarter alone to those who bought the Aramco shares during the IPO .
This dividend obligation – and it will total US $ 75 billion for the full year – will have to be paid for through budget cuts over and above the US $ 15 billion in Aramco ’ s annual capital spending alluded to by Aramco ’ s chief executive officer , Amin Nasser , just after the profits figures .
This will take the total down from around US $ 40 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Further reports have stated that even this US $ 25 billion figure is set to be reduced by another US $ 5 billion , taking the total capital spending in this year from US $ 25 billion to US $ 20 billion .
Whatever the cuts , it remains a stark fact that the two dividends together for the first two quarters of this year – US $ 37.5 billion – far outstrips Aramco ’ s total free cash flow of US $ 21.1 billion for the same period .
This looks even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a whole – in light of the recent release of results showing that the smoke-and-mirrors ‘ purchase ’ by Aramco of a 70 per cent stake in the Kingdom ’ s key petrochemicals company , Saudi Basic Industries Corporation ( SABIC ) , for the originally-intended US $ 69.1 billion , looks increasingly like a bad decision .
According to results collected by data firm Mubasher , based on the companies ’ financial results disclosed to the Saudi Tadawul Stock Exchange , SABIC was responsible for 91 per cent of the combined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 639.89 million ) made by Saudi Arabian listed petrochemical companies in just the second quarter of this year .
Specifically , SABIC lost SAR2.22 billion in Q2 alone .
Amongst the slew of projects to be indefinitely suspended is the once much-vaunted flagship US $ 20 billion crude-to-chemicals plant at Yanbu on Saudi ’ s Red Sea coast , according to various reports .
The similarly high-profile purchase of a 25 per cent multi-billion dollar stake in Sempra Energy ’ s liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) terminal in Texas is also apparently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part has said that it continued to work with Aramco and others “ to move our project at Port Arthur LNG forward.
” In the same vein , according to various news sources , Aramco has suspended its key US $ 10 billion deal to expand into mainland China ’ s refining and petrochemicals sector , via a complex in the Northeastern province of Liaoning that would have seen Saudi supply up to 70 per cent of the crude oil for the planned 300,000 barrels per day refinery .
In sum , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ principal projects aimed at diversifying Saudi Arabia away from the relatively zero added-value pursuit of just pumping and selling crude oil are now subject to review and/or outright suspension .
All of this comes at a time when MbS ’ s grip on power at home has never been more tenuous .
It should be remembered that just before the full onset of the latest Saudi-instigated oil price war , MbS had yet another round-up of his high-ranking opponents ( the previous major one was at the end of 2017 in the notorious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ included Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz , a younger brother of King Salman , and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef , the King ’ s nephew and the former crown prince .
This followed numerous reports that the health of the 84-year old current king , Salman , is very poor , which has prompted a jostling of senior royal Saudis for the succession .
It should also be borne in mind that MbS was not always the natural successor to King Salman : before June 2017 ( when the succession was changed in MbS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the aforementioned Prince Mohammed bin Nayef , whilst the also aforementioned Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz was one of three members of the Allegiance Council ( the senior royal organisation that endorses the line of succession ) , to oppose MBS ’ s appointment as crown prince in place of his cousin bin Nayef in 2017 .
MbS ’ s ability to rely on the support of Saudi ’ s longstanding core ally – the U.S. – is also in serious question , following the second Saudi-instigated oil price war in less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disabling the U.S. shale oil sector .
Since his ascent to effective power , MbS has been at least complicit in a litany of huge errors as far as the U.S. is concerned , including – but by no means limited to – the Saudi-led war in Yemen , the cosying up of Saudi to Russia in the OPEC+ grouping , Lebanese President Michel Aoun ’ s allegation in 2017 that then-Prime Minister Saad al Hariri had been kidnapped by the Saudis and forced to resign , and the murder of dissident Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the CIA concluded was personally ordered by MbS .
Over and above all of these , though , in the U.S. ’ s view , has been the breaking of the basic trust between the two countries that was established in the 1945 agreement made between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on the Bitter Lake segment of the Suez Canal .
The agreement made between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time , Abdulaziz , was that the U.S. would receive all of the oil supplies it needed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil in place , in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security of the ruling House of Saud .
After the 2014-2016 oil price war , this deal changed slightly to incorporate the U.S. expectation that the House of Saud would ensure that Saudi Arabia not only supplies the U.S. with whatever oil it needs for as long as it can but also that it also allows the U.S. shale industry to continue to grow .
If this means that the Saudi-led OPEC+ production cuts creates a situation in which Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then that is just the price that the House of Saud must pay for the continued protection of the U.S. – politically , economically , and militarily .
The surest sign that the U.S. does not trust Saudi in general , or MbS in particular , anymore to uphold its side of the deal was shown in the fact that in order to end the latest oil price war at the beginning of April U.S. President Donald Trump had to resort to an outright , clear threat .
Trump had previously repeatedly made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this 1945 deal , including at a rally in Southaven , Mississippi , in October 2018 : “ I said , ‘ King [ Salman ] we ’ re protecting you .
You might not be there for two weeks without us.
’ ” This came shortly after a similar comment from Trump in a speech before the U.N. General Assembly , when oil prices were again being pushed higher after the Saudis reversed their oil overproduction/destroy U.S. shale oil strategy : “ OPEC and OPEC nations are , as usual , ripping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I don ’ t like it .
Nobody should like it , ” he said .
“ We defend many of these nations for nothing , and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices .
Not good .
We want them to stop raising prices .
We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection from now on.
” After the Saudis had launched the latest oil price war , though , the warnings became a straight threat/promise , with Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a telephone call that unless OPEC started cutting oil production , he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the Kingdom .

By Simon Watkins
It was evident to anyone with even half a brain that the last Saudi-instigated oil price war would end in abject failure for the Saudis, just as the previous 2014-2016 effort did and for the very same reasons.
For Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), one of the masterminds behind the oil war – the economic and political problems that his country now face appear to come a very distant second to preserving whatever he thinks is left of his own reputation, with the most obvious public manifestation of this being the aftermath of the internationally-shunned omni-shambolic initial public offering (IPO) for hydrocarbons giant, Saudi Aramco (Aramco). Consequently, in order to stand by one of the inducements required to inveigle anyone to buy the shares – in the triple-locked guaranteed dividend payout – swingeing cuts to key projects for Saudi Arabia are now being announced.
Despite the 50 per cent plunge in Aramco’s net profit for the first half of this year – a result of the Saudi-led oil price war at a time when demand was already choked off by the COVID-19 outbreak – the company is still obliged to hand over US$18.75 billion in this quarter alone to those who bought the Aramco shares during the IPO. This dividend obligation – and it will total US$75 billion for the full year – will have to be paid for through budget cuts over and above the US$15 billion in Aramco’s annual capital spending alluded to by Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, just after the profits figures. This will take the total down from around US$40 billion to around US$25 billion. Further reports have stated that even this US$25 billion figure is set to be reduced by another US$5 billion, taking the total capital spending in this year from US$25 billion to US$20 billion.
Whatever the cuts, it remains a stark fact that the two dividends together for the first two quarters of this year – US$37.5 billion – far outstrips Aramco’s total free cash flow of US$21.1 billion for the same period. This looks even worse for Aramco – and Saudi Arabia as a whole – in light of the recent release of results showing that the smoke-and-mirrors ‘purchase’ by Aramco of a 70 per cent stake in the Kingdom’s key petrochemicals company, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), for the originally-intended US$69.1 billion, looks increasingly like a bad decision. According to results collected by data firm Mubasher, based on the companies’ financial results disclosed to the Saudi Tadawul Stock Exchange, SABIC was responsible for 91 per cent of the combined losses of SAR2.4 billion (US$639.89 million) made by Saudi Arabian listed petrochemical companies in just the second quarter of this year. Specifically, SABIC lost SAR2.22 billion in Q2 alone.
Amongst the slew of projects to be indefinitely suspended is the once much-vaunted flagship US$20 billion crude-to-chemicals plant at Yanbu on Saudi’s Red Sea coast, according to various reports. The similarly high-profile purchase of a 25 per cent multi-billion dollar stake in Sempra Energy’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Texas is also apparently under threat, although Sempra for its part has said that it continued to work with Aramco and others “to move our project at Port Arthur LNG forward.” In the same vein, according to various news sources, Aramco has suspended its key US$10 billion deal to expand into mainland China’s refining and petrochemicals sector, via a complex in the Northeastern province of Liaoning that would have seen Saudi supply up to 70 per cent of the crude oil for the planned 300,000 barrels per day refinery. In sum, it appears that all of Aramco’s principal projects aimed at diversifying Saudi Arabia away from the relatively zero added-value pursuit of just pumping and selling crude oil are now subject to review and/or outright suspension.
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All of this comes at a time when MbS’s grip on power at home has never been more tenuous. It should be remembered that just before the full onset of the latest Saudi-instigated oil price war, MbS had yet another round-up of his high-ranking opponents (the previous major one was at the end of 2017 in the notorious Ritz-Carlton round-up). The latest round-up included Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, a younger brother of King Salman, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the King’s nephew and the former crown prince. This followed numerous reports that the health of the 84-year old current king, Salman, is very poor, which has prompted a jostling of senior royal Saudis for the succession. It should also be borne in mind that MbS was not always the natural successor to King Salman: before June 2017 (when the succession was changed in MbS’s favour), the heir-designate was the aforementioned Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, whilst the also aforementioned Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz was one of three members of the Allegiance Council (the senior royal organisation that endorses the line of succession), to oppose MBS’s appointment as crown prince in place of his cousin bin Nayef in 2017.
MbS’s ability to rely on the support of Saudi’s longstanding core ally – the U.S. – is also in serious question, following the second Saudi-instigated oil price war in less than five years aimed specifically at destroying or disabling the U.S. shale oil sector. Since his ascent to effective power, MbS has been at least complicit in a litany of huge errors as far as the U.S. is concerned, including – but by no means limited to – the Saudi-led war in Yemen, the cosying up of Saudi to Russia in the OPEC+ grouping, Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s allegation in 2017 that then-Prime Minister Saad al Hariri had been kidnapped by the Saudis and forced to resign, and the murder of dissident Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, which even the CIA concluded was personally ordered by MbS. Over and above all of these, though, in the U.S.’s view, has been the breaking of the basic trust between the two countries that was established in the 1945 agreement made between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on the Bitter Lake segment of the Suez Canal. The agreement made between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time, Abdulaziz, was that the U.S. would receive all of the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia had oil in place, in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security of the ruling House of Saud. After the 2014-2016 oil price war, this deal changed slightly to incorporate the U.S. expectation that the House of Saud would ensure that Saudi Arabia not only supplies the U.S. with whatever oil it needs for as long as it can but also that it also allows the U.S. shale industry to continue to grow. If this means that the Saudi-led OPEC+ production cuts creates a situation in which Saudi loses market share to U.S. shale producers then that is just the price that the House of Saud must pay for the continued protection of the U.S. – politically, economically, and militarily.
The surest sign that the U.S. does not trust Saudi in general, or MbS in particular, anymore to uphold its side of the deal was shown in the fact that in order to end the latest oil price war at the beginning of April U.S. President Donald Trump had to resort to an outright, clear threat. Trump had previously repeatedly made warning comments to the Saudis alluding to this 1945 deal, including at a rally in Southaven, Mississippi, in October 2018: “I said, ‘King [Salman] we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us.’” This came shortly after a similar comment from Trump in a speech before the U.N. General Assembly, when oil prices were again being pushed higher after the Saudis reversed their oil overproduction/destroy U.S. shale oil strategy: “OPEC and OPEC nations are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and I don’t like it. Nobody should like it,” he said. “We defend many of these nations for nothing, and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices. Not good. We want them to stop raising prices. We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection from now on.” After the Saudis had launched the latest oil price war, though, the warnings became a straight threat/promise, with Trump reportedly directly telling MbS on 2 April in a telephone call that unless OPEC started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the Kingdom.
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Let’s Give Trump Some Credit: On Labor Day He Threw Down The Gauntlet To The Corrupt Military Brass

Let ’ s Give Trump Some Credit—On Labor Day He Threw Down the Gauntlet to the Corrupt Military Brass Trump said that the Pentagon brass don ’ t love him , “ because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make eveything else stay happy.
” President John F. Kennedy was assassinated by the military/security complex for making the same point ( see , for example , JFK and the Unspeakable by James W. Douglass , Simon & Schuster , 2008 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ crosshairs on Trump since his first presidential campaign when he said that he was going to normalize relations with Russia .
I don ’ t think Trump realized what a massive NO-NO this is .
Trump was telling the military-security complex that he was going to take away their concocted enemy that justifies the lucrative $ 1,000 billion annual budget paid by American taxpayers .
This enormous sum enriches a large number of companies along with the CIA ’ s power and budget .
To tell a powerful institutionalized force that you are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diverting increasingly scarce American resources into their bank accounts is to ask for assassination .
President Trump is in the process of being assassinated , but it is not by bullets .
Not even dumbshit Americans will believe another “ lone assassin ” story .
Trump is being assassinated with a coup—www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/09/08/democrats-have-planned-a-coup-if-trump-wins-reelection/ .
The military/security complex responded to Trump ’ s policy of normalizing relations with Russia with “ Russiagate , ” an orchestration initiated by CIA director John Brennan and FBI director Comey .
The CIA has had the media in its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1950—www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/10/14/how-the-cia-paid-and-threatened-journalists-to-do-its-work .
The CIA ’ s “ Russiagate ” attack on President Trump served the interests of Hillary Clinton and the Democrat Party .
The corrupt Democrats quickly joined forces with the CIA and the CIA ’ s media whores .
The attack on Trump was underway and has not stopped since .
As I posted here—www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/09/08/democrats-have-planned-a-coup-if-trump-wins-reelection/ —the Democrats have worked out with the CIA and the presstitutes their coup plan if Trump is reelected , which he will be .
Most Americans , black , white , hispanic and Asian do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is what we now know the Democrats will give us .
President Trump ’ s chief of staff , Mark Meadows , said today that Trump is “ not going to let some lobbyists here in Washington DC – just because they want a new defense contract – suggest that soldiers need to stay abroad one minute longer than they should.
” Everytime Trump has tried to bring our soldiers home , he has been stymied by the military/security complex and the presstitute media .
All sorts of phony reasons are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why withdrawal would be inimical to American interest .
Many American partiots fall for the concocted arguments and turn against Trump for “ endangering America.
” Nothing better illustrates President Trump ’ s vulnerability than the fact that his own Defense Secretary has not rejected the unsupported anonymous allegation made by a Jew in the Atlantic that President Trump bad-mouthed American war dead and refused to visit a cemetery in France where many are buried .
Even President Trump ’ s enemy , John Bolton , has refuted the Jew ’ s allegation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I didn ’ t hear either of those comments or anything even resembling them , ’ Bolton told Fox News .
‘ I was there at the point in time that morning when it was decided that he would not go to Aisne-Marne cemetery … It was entirely a weather-related decision , and I thought the proper thing to do .
“ I never heard he made that kind of comment about another country ’ s forces either , no.
” “ Fox correspondent John Roberts , who conducted the Bolton interview @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ‘ if [ Donald Trump ] had said he didn ’ t want to visit Aisne-Marne because the interred heroes were ‘ losers ’ and ‘ suckers , ’ he would have written an entire chapter about it in his book , The Room Where It Happened.
” www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8709559/Trump-attacks-militarys-commanders-claiming-want-defense-contractors-happy.html The Atlantic is part of the CIA ’ s media assets .
The story was handed to the Jewish editor , Jeffrey Goldberg , and the two-bit puppet performed for his master .
The two-bit puppet went on to say that he expects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information ” to come out in the coming days and weeks that will coroborate that Trump called US war dead “ losers and suckers.
” In other words , Goldberg is acknowledging that he will continue to be a military/security mouthpiece in driving Trump from office .
The purpose of the CIA story handed to Goldberg is to discredit Trump with his patriotic supporters , those who wave the flag , and especially the retired military .
The way the coming coup against Trump works is to turn his supporters against him so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ejected from office Goldberg ’ s sources , he says , are anonymous .
But they are not .
His “ sources ” are his military/security masters .
Goldberg knows who they are .
Remember , the entire four-year long attack on Trump has relied on anonymous sources .
With anonymous sources , you can make up anything .
There is no one to confirm , deny , or to hold accountable .
It is fake news .
Not only are the CIA , Pentagon , and FBI united in the coup against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Attorney General as well .
It has been months and Barr and Durham have not produced the indictments against the Obama regime personnel who committed felonies while orchestrating “ Russiagate.
” The people who committed the felonies and the felonies that were committed are known and are part of the public record .
Yet no indictments .
What we are witnessing here is that the Washington Establishment is Democrat and Republican and neither party will defend an elected President at the expense of the Establishment .
To conclude , blatant treason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insouciant Americans can help but see it .
Yet , there is not a word about it .
The coming coup seems to have a clear road for success .
Something will remain here afterwards , but it will not be the United States of America .

by Paul Craig Roberts via PaulCraigRoberts.org
Let’s Give Trump Some Credit—On Labor Day He Threw Down the Gauntlet to the Corrupt Military Brass
Paul Craig Roberts
Trump said that the Pentagon brass don’t love him, “because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make eveything else stay happy.”
President John F. Kennedy was assassinated by the military/security complex for making the same point (see, for example, JFK and the Unspeakable by James W. Douglass, Simon & Schuster, 2008).
The US military/security complex has had its crosshairs on Trump since his first presidential campaign when he said that he was going to normalize relations with Russia. I don’t think Trump realized what a massive NO-NO this is. Trump was telling the military-security complex that he was going to take away their concocted enemy that justifies the lucrative $1,000 billion annual budget paid by American taxpayers.
This enormous sum enriches a large number of companies along with the CIA’s power and budget. To tell a powerful institutionalized force that you are going to take away their justification for diverting increasingly scarce American resources into their bank accounts is to ask for assassination. President Trump is in the process of being assassinated, but it is not by bullets. Not even dumbshit Americans will believe another “lone assassin” story. Trump is being assassinated with a coup—www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/09/08/democrats-have-planned-a-coup-if-trump-wins-reelection/ .
The military/security complex responded to Trump’s policy of normalizing relations with Russia with “Russiagate,” an orchestration initiated by CIA director John Brennan and FBI director Comey. The CIA has had the media in its pocket since Operation Mockingbird dating back to 1950—www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/10/14/how-the-cia-paid-and-threatened-journalists-to-do-its-work .
The CIA’s “Russiagate” attack on President Trump served the interests of Hillary Clinton and the Democrat Party. The corrupt Democrats quickly joined forces with the CIA and the CIA’s media whores. The attack on Trump was underway and has not stopped since.
As I posted here—www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/09/08/democrats-have-planned-a-coup-if-trump-wins-reelection/ —the Democrats have worked out with the CIA and the presstitutes their coup plan if Trump is reelected, which he will be. Most Americans, black, white, hispanic and Asian do not want rioting and looting as everyday experience, which is what we now know the Democrats will give us.
President Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, said today that Trump is “not going to let some lobbyists here in Washington DC – just because they want a new defense contract – suggest that soldiers need to stay abroad one minute longer than they should.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Everytime Trump has tried to bring our soldiers home, he has been stymied by the military/security complex and the presstitute media. All sorts of phony reasons are concocted and put into the media about why withdrawal would be inimical to American interest. Many American partiots fall for the concocted arguments and turn against Trump for “endangering America.”
Nothing better illustrates President Trump’s vulnerability than the fact that his own Defense Secretary has not rejected the unsupported anonymous allegation made by a Jew in the Atlantic that President Trump bad-mouthed American war dead and refused to visit a cemetery in France where many are buried. Even President Trump’s enemy, John Bolton, has refuted the Jew’s allegation. Bolton said on the record:
“I didn’t hear either of those comments or anything even resembling them,’ Bolton told Fox News. ‘I was there at the point in time that morning when it was decided that he would not go to Aisne-Marne cemetery … It was entirely a weather-related decision, and I thought the proper thing to do.
“I never heard he made that kind of comment about another country’s forces either, no.”
“Fox correspondent John Roberts, who conducted the Bolton interview, added that he has told him, ‘if [Donald Trump] had said he didn’t want to visit Aisne-Marne because the interred heroes were ‘losers’ and ‘suckers,’ he would have written an entire chapter about it in his book, The Room Where It Happened.” www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8709559/Trump-attacks-militarys-commanders-claiming-want-defense-contractors-happy.html
The Atlantic is part of the CIA’s media assets. The story was handed to the Jewish editor, Jeffrey Goldberg, and the two-bit puppet performed for his master. The two-bit puppet went on to say that he expects “more confirmation and new pieces of information” to come out in the coming days and weeks that will coroborate that Trump called US war dead “losers and suckers.”
In other words, Goldberg is acknowledging that he will continue to be a military/security mouthpiece in driving Trump from office. The purpose of the CIA story handed to Goldberg is to discredit Trump with his patriotic supporters, those who wave the flag, and especially the retired military. The way the coming coup against Trump works is to turn his supporters against him so that he is isolated and can be ejected from office
Goldberg’s sources, he says, are anonymous. But they are not. His “sources” are his military/security masters. Goldberg knows who they are. Remember, the entire four-year long attack on Trump has relied on anonymous sources. With anonymous sources, you can make up anything. There is no one to confirm, deny, or to hold accountable. It is fake news.
Not only are the CIA, Pentagon, and FBI united in the coup against Trump, but also it seems Trump’s Attorney General as well. It has been months and Barr and Durham have not produced the indictments against the Obama regime personnel who committed felonies while orchestrating “Russiagate.” The people who committed the felonies and the felonies that were committed are known and are part of the public record. Yet no indictments. What we are witnessing here is that the Washington Establishment is Democrat and Republican and neither party will defend an elected President at the expense of the Establishment.
To conclude, blatant treason is in plain view. Not even insouciant Americans can help but see it. Yet, there is not a word about it. The coming coup seems to have a clear road for success. Something will remain here afterwards, but it will not be the United States of America.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Traders Rush Back Into Hedges

Traders Rush Back Into Hedges

For the past several weeks ( or even longer ) we have been warning about extremely complacent sentiment among stock investors .
Specifically , data from the equity options market indicated that hedging ( i.e.
, put volume ) was as scarce as it had ever been in the history of the data .
Now , such a condition may not necessarily equate to a catalyst for a market selloff .
However , the lack of hedging , or downside protection , certainly suggested that any decline that may occur would run the risk of accelerating quickly as traders began @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenario that we have seen unfold over the past week .
Specifically , in the Nasdaq/large-cap tech space , the selloff that began a week ago — directly from all-time highs — quickly began to snowball , presumably as unprotected traders rushed to sell or adopt protection .
The result of the tenuous market structure was one of the swiftest 10 % declines from a 52-week high in market history — just 3 days in the Nasdaq 100 !
That ’ s the bad news .
The good news is that all that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good deal of the complacency that led up to the selloff .
In fact , by some measures , we have never before witnessed such a rush to put on hedges .
At least that is the case when looking at trading volume in inverse exchange traded funds ( ETF ’ s ) .
Of course , inverse ETF ’ s are designed to go up when their corresponding indices go down .
That is why we call them hedges , or protection .
And based on relative volume in such products , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever in terms of ETF trader hedging .
Specifically , volume in inverse ETF ’ s accounted for 2.69 % of total exchange volume on both Thursday and Friday .
Those are the highest readings we have ever recorded since we began tracking this indicator some 10 years ago .
FYI , the computation for this indicator , which we first saw utilized on sentimentrader.com , is a proprietary one .
It does not include an exhaustive array of inverse ETF ’ s , but rather a group that we have been tracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , someone else may come up with entirely different figures , though , likely the same general curve .
What is the takeaway from this data ?
Well , the rush into inverse ETF ’ s represents a healthy reversal of the complacency and lack of hedging we saw in the weeks and months leading up to last week ’ s top .
In fact , from the bulls ’ perspective , the more panic , the better from a contrarian standpoint .
Of course , after coming off such low levels of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ panic to even put sentiment back into some balance .
However , the heavy inverse ETF activity was at least good enough to contribute to yesterday ’ s sharp bounce in stocks .
The question is — is it sufficient enough to provide for a longer-lasting rally or merely a flash in the pan ?
Today ’ s reversal back down suggests it is the latter but the jury is certainly still out on this one .

by Dana Lyons
For the past several weeks (or even longer) we have been warning about extremely complacent sentiment among stock investors. Specifically, data from the equity options market indicated that hedging (i.e., put volume) was as scarce as it had ever been in the history of the data. Now, such a condition may not necessarily equate to a catalyst for a market selloff. However, the lack of hedging, or downside protection, certainly suggested that any decline that may occur would run the risk of accelerating quickly as traders began scrambling for protection. This is a scenario that we have seen unfold over the past week.
Specifically, in the Nasdaq/large-cap tech space, the selloff that began a week ago — directly from all-time highs — quickly began to snowball, presumably as unprotected traders rushed to sell or adopt protection. The result of the tenuous market structure was one of the swiftest 10% declines from a 52-week high in market history — just 3 days in the Nasdaq 100!
That’s the bad news. The good news is that all that scrambling for protection has wrung out a good deal of the complacency that led up to the selloff. In fact, by some measures, we have never before witnessed such a rush to put on hedges. At least that is the case when looking at trading volume in inverse exchange traded funds (ETF’s).
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Of course, inverse ETF’s are designed to go up when their corresponding indices go down. That is why we call them hedges, or protection. And based on relative volume in such products, Thursday and Friday marked the busiest days ever in terms of ETF trader hedging. Specifically, volume in inverse ETF’s accounted for 2.69% of total exchange volume on both Thursday and Friday. Those are the highest readings we have ever recorded since we began tracking this indicator some 10 years ago.
FYI, the computation for this indicator, which we first saw utilized on sentimentrader.com, is a proprietary one. It does not include an exhaustive array of inverse ETF’s, but rather a group that we have been tracking now for about 10 years. Thus, someone else may come up with entirely different figures, though, likely the same general curve.
What is the takeaway from this data? Well, the rush into inverse ETF’s represents a healthy reversal of the complacency and lack of hedging we saw in the weeks and months leading up to last week’s top. In fact, from the bulls’ perspective, the more panic, the better from a contrarian standpoint. Of course, after coming off such low levels of hedging, it’ll take extreme panic to even put sentiment back into some balance. However, the heavy inverse ETF activity was at least good enough to contribute to yesterday’s sharp bounce in stocks.
The question is — is it sufficient enough to provide for a longer-lasting rally or merely a flash in the pan? Today’s reversal back down suggests it is the latter but the jury is certainly still out on this one.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Economist: Pay Americans $1,000 each to take a coronavirus vaccine

Public health experts are increasingly concerned about the possibility that a coronavirus vaccine will be successfully developed but not enough @ @ @ @ @ receive it .
About 70 % of a population being vaccinated represents the threshold needed @ @ @ @ @ dramatically slows the spread of viruses .
Given the potential problem , an expert from @ @ @ @ @ the government pay Americans $ 1,000 each to take the vaccine .
“ If we @ @ @ @ @ immunity , we ’ re not getting our economy back and we ’ re not @ @ @ @ @ lives back , ” Robert Litan , an economist who served in the Clinton administration @ @ @ @ @ authored the report , told Yahoo Finance ( video above ) .
“ If you @ @ @ @ @ — so for a family of four you ’ re talking $ 4,000 .
In @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a lot of money and I think a lot of people would take @ @ @ @ @ .
”

Public health experts are increasingly concerned about the possibility that a coronavirus vaccine will be successfully developed but not enough Americans would be willing to receive it.
About 70% of a population being vaccinated represents the threshold needed for herd immunity, which dramatically slows the spread of viruses.
Given the potential problem, an expert from the Brookings Institution suggests that the government pay Americans $1,000 each to take the vaccine.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“If we don’t get herd immunity, we’re not getting our economy back and we’re not getting our society and our lives back,” Robert Litan, an economist who served in the Clinton administration and the Brookings scholar who authored the report, told Yahoo Finance (video above). “If you paid $1,000 a person — so for a family of four you’re talking $4,000. In these hard times, that’s a lot of money and I think a lot of people would take the vaccine for $1,000.”
finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-pay-people-1-k-to-take-a-coronavirus-vaccine-instead-of-forcing-them-222034662.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Patriot receives 4 absentee ballots in MN. “People can use a fake name to register, my leftist neigh

Patriot receives 4 absentee ballots in MN. “People can use a fake name to register, my leftist neighbors can put my name on a absentee ballot. MN is in real trouble .”

I got 4 absentee ballots in MN .
People can use a fake name to register , my leftist neighbors @ @ @ @ @ a absentee ballot .
MN is in real trouble & we need lawyers here because @ @ @ @ @ , that was proven with Colman/Franken .
pic.twitter.com/0mn9CNZy00

I got 4 absentee ballots in MN. People can use a fake name to register, my leftist neighbors can put my name on a absentee ballot. MN is in real trouble & we need lawyers here because the election judges are corrupt, that was proven with Colman/Franken. pic.twitter.com/0mn9CNZy00
— Interracials for Trump 🇺🇸 (@sandyleevincent) September 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--This Is Why America’s Bankrupt Government Will Fail To Save The Economy From A Disaster

The American economy is facing a complex dilemma – while it ’ s drowning in debt it also needs to create more debt to avoid deeper damages in the already hurt Main Street economy .
In simple terms , it needs at least another 3 trillion in fiscal stimulus to support American families and businesses to survive and prevent unemployment rates and business bankruptcies to continue soaring every week .
However , the American debt is so high that it is forecasted to exceed the entire size of the economy and surpass the GDP growth for the next years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the very least we can expect is half a decade in deep recession .
That ’ s why today we decided to scrutinize some recent studies to show you what are the forthcoming troubles in the next chapters of the US economic collapse .
So stay with us and don ’ t forget to hit the like and subscribe button to support our community .
Yesterday , chief economist at Milken Institute , William Lee told CNBC the US needed at least $ 3 trillion in fiscal stimulus to support its economy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global sanitary crisis , but it has been suffering for a long time before the current outbreak .
While Congress and the White House remain in an impasse over what to comprise in the next relief package , the economist affirmed that these $ 3 trillion should be used to develop programs such as incentivizing businesses to increase remote working capabilities and helping the unemployed find jobs in companies with viable business models .
So far , from the trillions of dollars printed and injected into the economy , most of it ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectively used in the benefit of the population nor with the intent to keep businesses safe .
On the contrary , it has stimulated big businesses to file for bankruptcy , furloughing millions of workers , not to compromise CEOs ’ profits , most of which surely knew their companies would be bailed out by the Fed or the markets .
The Fed ’ s lack of planning in asset purchasing and strategics also stimulated such large corporations to lay-off their workers at a record pace so they wouldn ’ t be responsible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compromise their wealth during the crisis because the government would be in charge of that .
The government fell into the market ’ s trap and had to be responsible not only for the workers , by granting stimulus checks , but also for the companies , by “ saving ” these large corporations , that weren ’ t broke in the first place , and neglecting aid to small businesses that didn ’ t employ as many people .
Otherwise , workers wouldn ’ t be reinserted in the job market again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As time passes by , more and more stimulus is required in the financial markets , since CEO ’ s realized that they can demand whatever they want , because the government has to keep injecting money into the financial markets or face the threat of this designed economic collapse , which will affect the whole population , while the affluent 1 % will continue to thrive… .
In a nutshell , our entire analysis aimed to prove to you that our leaders are aware of a way out of this crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn .
They ’ re not interested in fixing the problem , just band-aiding it for the time being and leaving this massive debt for the future generations to deal with .
The economic collapse won ’ t be a phasis or a chapter in US history .
It will be a constant because that ’ s how the system works .
That ’ s how money is made .
Prepare to see taxes raising , prices soaring , little to no effort in governmental policies to keep people from starving , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs won ’ t ever come back and several companies will never open their doors ever again .
It is nauseating but is true .
America is doomed , but you ’ re not .
We are not slaves to the system as they want us to believe we are .
Choose to know .
Choose to act .
What are you waiting for ?

The American economy is facing a complex dilemma – while it’s drowning in debt it also needs to create more debt to avoid deeper damages in the already hurt Main Street economy. In simple terms, it needs at least another 3 trillion in fiscal stimulus to support American families and businesses to survive and prevent unemployment rates and business bankruptcies to continue soaring every week. However, the American debt is so high that it is forecasted to exceed the entire size of the economy and surpass the GDP growth for the next years, which indicates that at this point, the very least we can expect is half a decade in deep recession. That’s why today we decided to scrutinize some recent studies to show you what are the forthcoming troubles in the next chapters of the US economic collapse. So stay with us and don’t forget to hit the like and subscribe button to support our community.
Yesterday, chief economist at Milken Institute, William Lee told CNBC the US needed at least $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus to support its economy, which has been highly affected by the global sanitary crisis, but it has been suffering for a long time before the current outbreak. While Congress and the White House remain in an impasse over what to comprise in the next relief package, the economist affirmed that these $3 trillion should be used to develop programs such as incentivizing businesses to increase remote working capabilities and helping the unemployed find jobs in companies with viable business models.
So far, from the trillions of dollars printed and injected into the economy, most of it ended up on financial markets and were not effectively used in the benefit of the population nor with the intent to keep businesses safe. On the contrary, it has stimulated big businesses to file for bankruptcy, furloughing millions of workers, not to compromise CEOs’ profits, most of which surely knew their companies would be bailed out by the Fed or the markets. The Fed’s lack of planning in asset purchasing and strategics also stimulated such large corporations to lay-off their workers at a record pace so they wouldn’t be responsible to provide for their workers anymore or compromise their wealth during the crisis because the government would be in charge of that.
The government fell into the market’s trap and had to be responsible not only for the workers, by granting stimulus checks, but also for the companies, by “saving” these large corporations, that weren’t broke in the first place, and neglecting aid to small businesses that didn’t employ as many people. Otherwise, workers wouldn’t be reinserted in the job market again and the economy would crash right there. As time passes by, more and more stimulus is required in the financial markets, since CEO’s realized that they can demand whatever they want, because the government has to keep injecting money into the financial markets or face the threat of this designed economic collapse, which will affect the whole population, while the affluent 1% will continue to thrive….
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In a nutshell, our entire analysis aimed to prove to you that our leaders are aware of a way out of this crisis but are preferring to take a different turn. They’re not interested in fixing the problem, just band-aiding it for the time being and leaving this massive debt for the future generations to deal with. The economic collapse won’t be a phasis or a chapter in US history. It will be a constant because that’s how the system works. That’s how money is made. Prepare to see taxes raising, prices soaring, little to no effort in governmental policies to keep people from starving, or living in the streets. Millions of jobs won’t ever come back and several companies will never open their doors ever again. It is nauseating but is true. America is doomed, but you’re not. We are not slaves to the system as they want us to believe we are. Choose to know. Choose to act. What are you waiting for?


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--INTERESTING, IF TRUE: The Most Common Pain Relief Drug in The World Induces Risky Behaviour, Study S

INTERESTING, IF TRUE: The Most Common Pain Relief Drug in The World Induces Risky Behaviour, Study Suggests.

One of the most consumed drugs in the US – and the most commonly taken analgesic worldwide – could be doing a lot more than simply taking the edge off your headache , new evidence suggests .
Acetaminophen , also known as paracetamol and sold widely under the brand names Tylenol and Panadol , also increases risk-taking , according to a new study that measured changes in people ’ s behaviour when under the influence of the common over-the-counter medication .
“ Acetaminophen seems to make people feel less negative emotion when they consider risky activities – they just don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says neuroscientist Baldwin Way from The Ohio State University .
“ With nearly 25 percent of the population in the US taking acetaminophen each week , reduced risk perceptions and increased risk-taking could have important effects on society.
” The findings add to a recent body of research suggesting that acetaminophen ’ s effects on pain reduction also extend to various psychological processes , lowering people ’ s receptivity to hurt feelings , experiencing reduced empathy , and even blunting cognitive functions .
In a similar way , the new research suggests people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evaluate risks can be impaired when they take acetaminophen .
While the effects might be slight , they ’ re definitely worth noting , given acetaminophen is the most common drug ingredient in America , found in over 600 different kinds of over-the-counter and prescription medicines .

One of the most consumed drugs in the US – and the most commonly taken analgesic worldwide – could be doing a lot more than simply taking the edge off your headache, new evidence suggests.
Acetaminophen, also known as paracetamol and sold widely under the brand names Tylenol and Panadol, also increases risk-taking, according to a new study that measured changes in people’s behaviour when under the influence of the common over-the-counter medication.
“Acetaminophen seems to make people feel less negative emotion when they consider risky activities – they just don’t feel as scared,” says neuroscientist Baldwin Way from The Ohio State University.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“With nearly 25 percent of the population in the US taking acetaminophen each week, reduced risk perceptions and increased risk-taking could have important effects on society.”
The findings add to a recent body of research suggesting that acetaminophen’s effects on pain reduction also extend to various psychological processes, lowering people’s receptivity to hurt feelings, experiencing reduced empathy, and even blunting cognitive functions.
In a similar way, the new research suggests people’s affective ability to perceive and evaluate risks can be impaired when they take acetaminophen. While the effects might be slight, they’re definitely worth noting, given acetaminophen is the most common drug ingredient in America, found in over 600 different kinds of over-the-counter and prescription medicines.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--KRUISER: Clinically Deranged Adam Schiff Mounts His Dead Russia Horse Again.

As has been pointed out by many of us recently , the Democrats really aren ’ t behaving as if their presidential candidate had a substantial lead in the polls .
Yes , the polls have been tightening , but the Dems have been in a sort of flop-sweat panic mode since the Republican National Convention ended .
There is , of course , the fact that every public appearance by der Bidengaffer since then has been hovering in the neighborhood of “ unmitigated disaster.
” The Democrats do seem to be trying to get to their October surprises early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Speaking of reeking , California ’ s little impeachment pitbull Adam Schiff is back .
Guess what , kids ?
He ’ s got another whistleblower !
The House Intelligence Committee received a whistleblower complaint claiming Trump administration officials at the White House and the Department of Homeland Security suppressed intelligence reports related to Russian election interference , Democratic Committee Chairman Adam Schiff said Wednesday .
In a statement , Schiff said former Intelligence and Analysis Acting Under Secretary Brian Murphy filed the whistleblower reprisal complaint on Tuesday with the DHS Office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve received a whistleblower complaint alleging DHS suppressed intel reports on Russian election interference , altered intel to match false Trump claims and made false statements to Congress , ” Schiff , D-Calif. , tweeted Wednesday afternoon .
“ This puts our national security at risk .
”

Schiff to Russia: “I Can’t Quit You.”
As has been pointed out by many of us recently, the Democrats really aren’t behaving as if their presidential candidate had a substantial lead in the polls.
Yes, the polls have been tightening, but the Dems have been in a sort of flop-sweat panic mode since the Republican National Convention ended. There is, of course, the fact that every public appearance by der Bidengaffer since then has been hovering in the neighborhood of “unmitigated disaster.”
The Democrats do seem to be trying to get to their October surprises early this year. That reeks of desperation.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Speaking of reeking, California’s little impeachment pitbull Adam Schiff is back. Guess what, kids? He’s got another whistleblower!
Fox News:
The House Intelligence Committee received a whistleblower complaint claiming Trump administration officials at the White House and the Department of Homeland Security suppressed intelligence reports related to Russian election interference, Democratic Committee Chairman Adam Schiff said Wednesday. In a statement, Schiff said former Intelligence and Analysis Acting Under Secretary Brian Murphy filed the whistleblower reprisal complaint on Tuesday with the DHS Office of Inspector General. “We’ve received a whistleblower complaint alleging DHS suppressed intel reports on Russian election interference, altered intel to match false Trump claims and made false statements to Congress,” Schiff, D-Calif., tweeted Wednesday afternoon. “This puts our national security at risk.”
pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stephen-kruiser/2020/09/10/clinically-deranged-adam-schiff-mounts-his-dead-russia-horse-again-n914615


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--WARNING: Multiple sources in Emergency Response have confirmed that the fires along the West Coast a

WARNING : Multiple sources in Emergency Response have confirmed that the fires along the West Coast are caused by dozens @ @ @ @ @ are allegedly linked to Antifa and the Riots .

WARNING: Multiple sources in Emergency Response have confirmed that the fires along the West Coast are caused by dozens of arsonists.
These fires are allegedly linked to Antifa and the Riots.
Read this warning ⚠ pic.twitter.com/x1HVVsAIJy
— Katie Daviscourt🇺🇸 (@KatieDaviscourt) September 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--In the state of California the environmentalist lobby sets policy. Controlled burns? Bad for air. Lo

In the state of California the environmentalist lobby sets policy. Controlled burns? Bad for air. Logging to reduce forest density? Bad for the owls. Focus on replacing ancient transmission lines? Nah, we’re building wind farms.

You can say `` climate change '' all you want but this state has been having droughts & wildfires for @ @ @ @ @ are they `` worse '' now ?
1 .
People are building further into rural @ @ @ @ @ do controlled burns like we did 30 years ago .
2. t.co/WLbHao22So

You can say "climate change" all you want but this state has been having droughts & wildfires for hundreds of years. Why are they "worse" now?
1. People are building further into rural areas and we no longer do controlled burns like we did 30 years ago.
2. t.co/WLbHao22So
— Harold Stickeehans (@StickeeNotes) September 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--IN THESE STRESSFUL TIMES, TRY TO RELAX YOUR JAW: Dentists Are Seeing an Epidemic of Cracked Teeth. W

IN THESE STRESSFUL TIMES, TRY TO RELAX YOUR JAW: Dentists Are Seeing an Epidemic of Cracked Teeth. What’s Going On?

“ How ’ s your dental practice ?
” a friend of mine asked , brow furrowed , concern evident @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve seen this look a lot recently .
Since the onset of the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ and social distancing measures firmly entrenched , more than a handful of friends and family @ @ @ @ @ be on the brink of closing .
But I let her know that I am @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve seen more tooth fractures in the last six weeks than in the @ @ @ @ @ I explained .

“How’s your dental practice?” a friend of mine asked, brow furrowed, concern evident on her face.
I’ve seen this look a lot recently. Since the onset of the pandemic, with a citywide shutdown and social distancing measures firmly entrenched, more than a handful of friends and family members have presumed I must be on the brink of closing. But I let her know that I am busier than ever.
“Really?” she asked. “How’s that possible?”
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“I’ve seen more tooth fractures in the last six weeks than in the previous six years,” I explained.
Unfortunately, that’s no exaggeration.
news.yahoo.com/dentists-seeing-epidemic-cracked-teeth-120602844.html?


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--BP, Major Wall Street Banks Want Carbon Pricing Policy In U.S.

Supermajor BP , as well as many major Wall Street banks , recommends that the U.S. set a price on carbon in a report commissioned by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) , which recognizes that climate change could pose a risk to the financial markets .
The report from CFTC ’ s Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee – which includes , among others , executives from BP , ConocoPhillips , JPMorgan Chase , Morgan Stanley , Citigroup , Vanguard , Allianz Global Investors , and the Environmental Defense Fund – says that “ Both physical and transition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sub-systemic financial shocks , potentially causing unprecedented disruption in the proper functioning of financial markets and institutions.
” “ This report begins with a fundamental finding—financial markets will only be able to channel resources efficiently to activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions if an economy-wide price on carbon is in place at a level that reflects the true social cost of those emissions , ” said the authors led by CFTC ’ s subcommittee chairman Bob Litterman .
The report was the first of its kind from a U.S. regulator , the CFTC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon emissions .
Such action would need Congress to act .
The report is non-binding , but it is the first time that a regulator on Wall Street says climate change could threaten the stability of the financial markets .
“ Climate change poses a major risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and to its ability to sustain the American economy , ” the report said .
“ The central message of this report is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ move urgently and decisively to measure , understand , and address these risks , ” the authors said .
However , a major hurdle to addressing these risks remains the fact that the financial system lacks comparable and consistent data and analytical tools to measure and manage climate-related financial risks , according to the report .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
Supermajor BP, as well as many major Wall Street banks, recommends that the U.S. set a price on carbon in a report commissioned by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which recognizes that climate change could pose a risk to the financial markets.
The report from CFTC’s Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee – which includes, among others, executives from BP, ConocoPhillips, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Vanguard, Allianz Global Investors, and the Environmental Defense Fund – says that “Both physical and transition risks could give rise to systemic and sub-systemic financial shocks, potentially causing unprecedented disruption in the proper functioning of financial markets and institutions.”
“This report begins with a fundamental finding—financial markets will only be able to channel resources efficiently to activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions if an economy-wide price on carbon is in place at a level that reflects the true social cost of those emissions,” said the authors led by CFTC’s subcommittee chairman Bob Litterman.
The report was the first of its kind from a U.S. regulator, the CFTC, whose climate-related risk subcommittee recommends pricing carbon emissions.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Such action would need Congress to act. The report is non-binding, but it is the first time that a regulator on Wall Street says climate change could threaten the stability of the financial markets.
“Climate change poses a major risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and to its ability to sustain the American economy,” the report said.
“The central message of this report is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks,” the authors said.
However, a major hurdle to addressing these risks remains the fact that the financial system lacks comparable and consistent data and analytical tools to measure and manage climate-related financial risks, according to the report.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Our System Is Crumbling Right In Front of Our Eyes

Back in January , when the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to catch globe attention , Selco wrote an article stating , “ It ’ s not the virus you need to worry about .
It ’ s the system.
” Virus or illness on itself might not be a problem in its essence , but the impact that it brings to the system and people might be so huge through the media that it causes the system to stop working in the normal way .
So you could find yourself in a collapse not necessarily because of a huge pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it .
Another case might be the simple unwillingness from the system to admit how bad the situation is in order to stop the panic when folks realized the truth .
So , what might bring the system to collapse might be a real pandemic or a reaction to the pandemic ( which might or might not be controllable ) or simply the government ’ s poor or late response to the pandemic .
( source ) As things were just beginning to unfold , the article took a lot of heat on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t understand how things would go because he is not American and doesn ’ t know how things work here .
Whoops .
I guess that ’ s rather embarrassing in retrospect .
Because here we are , seven months after Selco wrote his warning , and our system is indeed falling apart .
Our system is failing in many ways .
It ’ s indisputable that our system is now failing in numerous ways .
Some of these things directly relate to the virus and the subsequent lockdown , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have been going on in some areas for more than 100 days .
The riots began after the death of George Floyd when a Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck until he suffocated .
From the economy to the justice system to the infrastructure , our system is grinding to a halt in a variety of manners that stand to completely change the American way of life .
Let ’ s take a look .
As predicted , our economy took a massive hit when government-mandated lockdowns closed the doors to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in relief ( much of which went to large businesses in an act of crony capitalism ) , the new economy has been nothing short of disastrous .
Millions of jobs are gone and are never coming back .
Millions of small businesses have fallen .
Corporate landlords aren ’ t getting paid rent and mom and pop landlords are being forced by the CDC ( that ’ s right – the Center for Disease Control ) to house people who can ’ t pay their rent , while still maintaining their mortgages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the average American who just wants to go to work and pay his or her bills .
If you ’ ve lost your job , you are now in a heated competition for the few jobs remaining .
The effect on the economy was “ swift and severe ” according to a paper published by the Brookings Institute .
Now that the CARES Act financial assistance has run out , more and more families are being pushed into desperate levels of poverty .
( If this is happening to you , please check @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surviving this situation . )
But it goes even further than that – in a puzzling turn of events , our country is running out of coins .
Many stores no longer give out change that is less than a dollar .
You can choose to donate your change digitally to the charity of the store ’ s choice or get it back on a store loyalty card .
Many people are concerned that this is a push toward a cashless society , something that would cause even more day to day financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( And this is not as far-fetched as it might seem – it ’ s happened in Venezuela , too . )
And what about the folks who do have money ?
Well , spending it might be harder than it used to be .
Remember when the first hints of a looming lockdown occurred and store shelves across the country were emptied ?
And remember when all the shortages were blamed on those selfish hoarder preppers ?
And remember when they said if you would just buy for the next few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inventory would quickly be replenished because the supply chain was A-OK ?
Yeah .
I remember that too .
And guess what ?
Store shelves are still pretty spotty in many parts of the country .
Some places still have limits on how much meat or toilet paper you can buy .
If you go to your local Target , it ’ s difficult to find things like bedding and certain cleaning supplies .
Food plants continue to close due to outbreaks .
Canned goods are still in high demand .
( source @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more is that we still aren ’ t getting the shipments from China that we used to receive .
When all of this began , I posted a list of essentials that we were getting from China which might affect our supplies , and unsurprisingly , many of these items remain difficult to find .
When you can find supplies in your local stores , you may find that the selection of options is far more limited than before .
This is pretty startling , but something that I noticed when I spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries don ’ t have chicken cut in 12 different ways or 47 different brands of laundry detergent .
What feels like a “ shortage ” to us is somewhat normal elsewhere and this is something you can adapt to fairly well .
At the same time , limits on purchases make it incredibly difficult to stock up for the future , and you can also expect to see fewer and fewer choices in the months ahead unless something happens to change the situation dramatically .
One of the first casualties of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schools simply gave up and didn ’ t continue the school year after the March lockdown .
Colleges and universities turned to distance learning .
Graduations were held virtually , if at all .
The new school year looks a lot different too .
The schools that have reopened for in-person learning have stringent – and somewhat unsettling – social distancing policies .
Many schools are only open for distance learning via Zoom or other online portals .
( And don ’ t even get my started on the privacy issues this has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of at least one school so shocked at the sight of a Nerf gun in a boy ’ s room that they called the cops and suspended him . )
Some schools reopened only to close again within a week when a new outbreak erupted .
Huge outbreaks are occurring at universities as ( big surprise ) students party without a lot of regard for social distancing .
Many colleges are fighting this by offering as many classes as possible in an online format .
This is causing many families to question why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceptionally high prices for the education as they did when everyone spent time in the classroom , used campus facilities , and had the benefit of an active social life .
The US Postal Service has been losing money hand over fist for years .
After the COVID pandemic , it lost a whopping 2.2 billion dollars in the second quarter .
In a recent Senate hearing , Postmaster General Louis DeJoy testified that they could not guarantee the ability to deliver mail-in ballots for the November election in a timely manner .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail-in ballots that are a problem .
There have recently been massive delays with the mail .
These delays have led to mailed prescription drugs arriving late to patients who depend on them , thousands of dead baby chicks , and shipping delays that are causing unprecedented issues for small businesses that mail products to customers – and 70 % of small businesses use the USPS regularly .
Many have blamed changes made by Postmaster General DeJoy , who donated to President Trump ’ s campaign , for the crisis .
Regardless of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reliable postal service has been yet another systemic casualty .
One recent video even came to light of massive bags of mail simply being dumped in a parking lot .
After the death of George Floyd on May 25 , 2020 , the country erupted .
Protests were widespread .
The organization Black Lives Matter reached peak popularity .
The movement was quickly co-opted and groups like Antifa and the Occupy movement took over .
Protests soon turned into violent riots that saw cities across the country turn into battle zones .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months and shows no signs of slowing down soon .
Armed conflict has broken out in numerous cities .
In fact , a demonstration promising to “ lay siege ” to the White House is planned for later this month through the election .
This goes hand in hand with calls to defund the police in many of the cities where the protests/riots are taking place .
Massive budget cuts have already occurred in Minneapolis , New York City , San Francisco , Washington , DC , Los Angeles , Baltimore , Oakland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Salt Lake City , and Seattle , just to name a few cities .
( source ) It ’ s important to note that some of these cities have been the sites of extreme upticks in violence , looting , destruction , and arson .
And it isn ’ t just the criminal justice system breaking down .
The court system in general has been on hiatus .
Family court closures have halted divorce and custody hearings .
Civil suits are at a standstill .
Once the courts reopen , the massive backlog @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upcoming election is the next broken element of the system .
This year hardly feels like an election year in the first place .
Many people are hesitant to vote in person due to the virus .
The postal service has said they may not be able to get ballots to people on time .
Big rallies are a thing of elections past .
We have yet to see a presidential debate between the candidates .
We probably won ’ t know who won on election night .
In fact , it could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and even then , it looks as though Biden and Trump are both intent on questioning the outcome if it isn ’ t in their favor .
In short , it ’ s going to be a huge bone of contention that is likely to escalate the violence discussed above for weeks , if not months .
We could have the fifth contested presidential election in American history .
( And I ’ d say that isn ’ t just a possibility , but a likelihood . )
If an already divided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won the election , would that be the final nail in the coffin of our system ?
What can we do ?
A lot of these are “ big circle ” things that are out of our personal realm of control .
We can ’ t do anything about imports from China , we can ’ t stop the riots in Seattle , we can ’ t fix the postal service .
But we can focus our energy on getting as prepared as possible for what promises to be a bumpy road ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a system that is broken to solve our problems .
Selco wrote : Pieces of the system are tumbling over like one domino after another .
Every stressor added is knocking out more of the system as time goes on .
Do you think the system is fixable or do you believe it is broken beyond repair ?
What do you foresee for the rest of the year ?
Share your thoughts in the comments .

by Daisy Luther
Back in January, when the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to catch globe attention, Selco wrote an article stating, “It’s not the virus you need to worry about. It’s the system.”
Virus or illness on itself might not be a problem in its essence, but the impact that it brings to the system and people might be so huge through the media that it causes the system to stop working in the normal way. So you could find yourself in a collapse not necessarily because of a huge pandemic, but because of the reaction to it. Another case might be the simple unwillingness from the system to admit how bad the situation is in order to stop the panic when folks realized the truth. So, what might bring the system to collapse might be a real pandemic or a reaction to the pandemic (which might or might not be controllable) or simply the government’s poor or late response to the pandemic. (source)
As things were just beginning to unfold, the article took a lot of heat on social media, with people saying Selco didn’t understand how things would go because he is not American and doesn’t know how things work here. Whoops. I guess that’s rather embarrassing in retrospect.
Because here we are, seven months after Selco wrote his warning, and our system is indeed falling apart.
Our system is failing in many ways.
It’s indisputable that our system is now failing in numerous ways. Some of these things directly relate to the virus and the subsequent lockdown, while others are tied to the nonstop riots that have been going on in some areas for more than 100 days. The riots began after the death of George Floyd when a Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck until he suffocated.
From the economy to the justice system to the infrastructure, our system is grinding to a halt in a variety of manners that stand to completely change the American way of life. Let’s take a look.
The economy
As predicted, our economy took a massive hit when government-mandated lockdowns closed the doors to many businesses. Despite billions of dollars in relief (much of which went to large businesses in an act of crony capitalism), the new economy has been nothing short of disastrous.
Millions of jobs are gone and are never coming back. Millions of small businesses have fallen. Corporate landlords aren’t getting paid rent and mom and pop landlords are being forced by the CDC (that’s right – the Center for Disease Control) to house people who can’t pay their rent, while still maintaining their mortgages.
Obviously, this trickles down to the average American who just wants to go to work and pay his or her bills. If you’ve lost your job, you are now in a heated competition for the few jobs remaining. The effect on the economy was “swift and severe” according to a paper published by the Brookings Institute. Now that the CARES Act financial assistance has run out, more and more families are being pushed into desperate levels of poverty. (If this is happening to you, please check out this article for essential advice on surviving this situation.)
But it goes even further than that – in a puzzling turn of events, our country is running out of coins. Many stores no longer give out change that is less than a dollar. You can choose to donate your change digitally to the charity of the store’s choice or get it back on a store loyalty card. Many people are concerned that this is a push toward a cashless society, something that would cause even more day to day financial problems for people who are already struggling. (And this is not as far-fetched as it might seem – it’s happened in Venezuela, too.)
Consumer inventory
And what about the folks who do have money? Well, spending it might be harder than it used to be.
Remember when the first hints of a looming lockdown occurred and store shelves across the country were emptied? And remember when all the shortages were blamed on those selfish hoarder preppers? And remember when they said if you would just buy for the next few days or for the week all the inventory would quickly be replenished because the supply chain was A-OK?
Yeah. I remember that too. And guess what?
Store shelves are still pretty spotty in many parts of the country. Some places still have limits on how much meat or toilet paper you can buy. If you go to your local Target, it’s difficult to find things like bedding and certain cleaning supplies.
Food plants continue to close due to outbreaks. Canned goods are still in high demand. (source) And what is affecting us even more is that we still aren’t getting the shipments from China that we used to receive. When all of this began, I posted a list of essentials that we were getting from China which might affect our supplies, and unsurprisingly, many of these items remain difficult to find.
When you can find supplies in your local stores, you may find that the selection of options is far more limited than before. This is pretty startling, but something that I noticed when I spent several months abroad was that most other countries don’t have chicken cut in 12 different ways or 47 different brands of laundry detergent. What feels like a “shortage” to us is somewhat normal elsewhere and this is something you can adapt to fairly well.
At the same time, limits on purchases make it incredibly difficult to stock up for the future, and you can also expect to see fewer and fewer choices in the months ahead unless something happens to change the situation dramatically.
Education
One of the first casualties of the lockdown was the education system. Most schools simply gave up and didn’t continue the school year after the March lockdown. Colleges and universities turned to distance learning. Graduations were held virtually, if at all.
The new school year looks a lot different too. The schools that have reopened for in-person learning have stringent – and somewhat unsettling – social distancing policies. Many schools are only open for distance learning via Zoom or other online portals. (And don’t even get my started on the privacy issues this has unlocked – not to mention the overreaction of at least one school so shocked at the sight of a Nerf gun in a boy’s room that they called the cops and suspended him.)
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Some schools reopened only to close again within a week when a new outbreak erupted. Huge outbreaks are occurring at universities as (big surprise) students party without a lot of regard for social distancing. Many colleges are fighting this by offering as many classes as possible in an online format. This is causing many families to question why they’re still paying the same exceptionally high prices for the education as they did when everyone spent time in the classroom, used campus facilities, and had the benefit of an active social life.
The postal service
The US Postal Service has been losing money hand over fist for years. After the COVID pandemic, it lost a whopping 2.2 billion dollars in the second quarter. In a recent Senate hearing, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy testified that they could not guarantee the ability to deliver mail-in ballots for the November election in a timely manner.
And it isn’t just the mail-in ballots that are a problem. There have recently been massive delays with the mail. These delays have led to mailed prescription drugs arriving late to patients who depend on them, thousands of dead baby chicks, and shipping delays that are causing unprecedented issues for small businesses that mail products to customers – and 70% of small businesses use the USPS regularly.
Many have blamed changes made by Postmaster General DeJoy, who donated to President Trump’s campaign, for the crisis.
Regardless of the specific cause, it appears a reliable postal service has been yet another systemic casualty. One recent video even came to light of massive bags of mail simply being dumped in a parking lot.
The legal and criminal justice system
After the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020, the country erupted. Protests were widespread. The organization Black Lives Matter reached peak popularity. The movement was quickly co-opted and groups like Antifa and the Occupy movement took over. Protests soon turned into violent riots that saw cities across the country turn into battle zones.
The unrest has lasted for more than three months and shows no signs of slowing down soon. Armed conflict has broken out in numerous cities. In fact, a demonstration promising to “lay siege” to the White House is planned for later this month through the election.
This goes hand in hand with calls to defund the police in many of the cities where the protests/riots are taking place. Massive budget cuts have already occurred in Minneapolis, New York City, San Francisco, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, Baltimore, Oakland, Portland, Philadelphia, Hartford, Salt Lake City, and Seattle, just to name a few cities. (source) It’s important to note that some of these cities have been the sites of extreme upticks in violence, looting, destruction, and arson.
And it isn’t just the criminal justice system breaking down. The court system in general has been on hiatus. Family court closures have halted divorce and custody hearings. Civil suits are at a standstill. Once the courts reopen, the massive backlog will mean even further delays.
The wheels have simply stopped turning.
The election
The upcoming election is the next broken element of the system. This year hardly feels like an election year in the first place.
Many people are hesitant to vote in person due to the virus. The postal service has said they may not be able to get ballots to people on time. Big rallies are a thing of elections past. We have yet to see a presidential debate between the candidates. We probably won’t know who won on election night. In fact, it could be weeks before a winner is announced, and even then, it looks as though Biden and Trump are both intent on questioning the outcome if it isn’t in their favor.
In short, it’s going to be a huge bone of contention that is likely to escalate the violence discussed above for weeks, if not months. We could have the fifth contested presidential election in American history. (And I’d say that isn’t just a possibility, but a likelihood.)
If an already divided country can’t agree on who won the election, would that be the final nail in the coffin of our system?
What can we do?
A lot of these are “big circle” things that are out of our personal realm of control. We can’t do anything about imports from China, we can’t stop the riots in Seattle, we can’t fix the postal service.
But we can focus our energy on getting as prepared as possible for what promises to be a bumpy road ahead. And we must also stop focusing on a system that is broken to solve our problems. Selco wrote:
Do not forget one basic fact: you as a prepper/survivalist, at your core, most probably do not trust the system. I am not saying you hate it, but you just do not trust it completely. So, watch the news and announcements. Help if possible, obey if possible (and if it makes sense) but always keep in mind that the system at its core has a very basic obligation: to keep that system running. If that means the system has to lie to you or let’s say, bend the truth, it will do it, because to the system you are an individual, and the system is machinery that needs to run. So, keep some common sense, and trust your gut instinct. (source)
Pieces of the system are tumbling over like one domino after another. Every stressor added is knocking out more of the system as time goes on.
Do you think the system is fixable or do you believe it is broken beyond repair? What do you foresee for the rest of the year? Share your thoughts in the comments.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--The Unemployment Rate Drops…Will It Make Gold Drop Too?

The U.S. labor market improved in August , although headlines paint too rosy a picture .
What does it all mean for the gold market ?
Great news for the U.S. labor market : according to the BLS , the American economy regained 1.4 million jobs , while the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time in the pandemic era !
To be more precise , the unemployment rate declined from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August , as the chart below shows .
Importantly , the fall in the unemployment rate was bigger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by an increase in the labor-force participation rate , from 61.4 to 61.7 percent , which makes the decline in the unemployment rate even better .
The headline numbers are , thus , negative for the gold market .
They reflect improvements in the labor market and the continued recovery of the economic activity from the coronavirus crisis and the Great Lockdown .
However , when we dig deeper , we would see less rosy picture .
First of all , as one can see in the chart below , the pace of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down from gains of 2.7 million , 4.8 million , and 1.8 million in May , June and July , respectively .
It indicates that the nonfarm payrolls are clearly losing momentum .
Moreover , the 238,000 jobs were created only temporarily due to the Census 2020 .
And we can not forget that the unemployment rate remains relatively high , especially when compared with a 3.5 percent rate before the outbreak of the epidemic .
So , there is still a long way to get back to the pre-COVID levels and trajectory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always take headline numbers with a pinch of salt , are the initial jobless claims .
They fell sharply by 130,000 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 in the last week of August ( see the chart below ) , but the decrease was caused by a methodological change in how the data is adjusted to account for seasonal swings in employment .
What does it all imply for the gold market ?
Well , the decline in the unemployment rate is negative for gold prices , as it could restore the confidence in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the price of gold declined initially in response to the release of the Employment Situation Report .
However , the fact that the U.S. job growth slowed further in August is worrisome .
The slowdown shows the fragility of the current economic recovery and puts its stability into question without the new government ’ s financial stimulus package .
The uncertainty about the pandemic and economic recovery should maintain the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and a portfolio diversifier .
So , in the short-term , the correction in the gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold to rally after the Fed announced its dovish change in the inflation-targeting regime looks bearish and may indicate that gold has already priced in a more inflationary Fed .
The improved epidemiological situation and economic recovery could also add some downward pressure on the gold prices .
However , the fundamental outlook for gold remains bullish .
The monetary policy remains easy , while the real interest rates will remain ultra low or even negative for years .
The fiscal deficits and public debts are ballooning .
In such a macroeconomic environment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And do not underestimate the power of the dovish side !
After all , last week , the Fed acknowledged that the Philips curve is dead , so it will permit the economy to expand and inflation to increase to a higher level without the need to hike interest rates .
In other words , the Fed promised to keep the federal funds rate near zero for a few more years without worrying about inflation .
As it has become even clearer that the Fed is more concerned about the weak economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain that the real interest rates will remain at ultra low levels for years , which will continue to push investors toward gold .
If you enjoyed today ’ s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services .
We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals .
To enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope , we invite you to subscribe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet , we urge you to sign up .
It ’ s free and if you don ’ t like it , you can easily unsubscribe .
Sign up today !
Disclaimer : Please note that the aim of the above analysis is to discuss the likely long-term impact of the featured phenomenon on the price of gold and this analysis does not indicate ( nor does it aim to do so ) whether gold is likely to move higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term .
In order to determine the latter , many additional factors need to be considered ( i.e .
sentiment , chart patterns , cycles , indicators , ratios , self-similar patterns and more ) and we are taking them into account ( and discussing the short- and medium-term outlook ) in our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts .

by Arkadiusz Sieron of Sunshine Profits
The U.S. labor market improved in August, although headlines paint too rosy a picture. What does it all mean for the gold market?
Great news for the U.S. labor market: according to the BLS, the American economy regained 1.4 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time in the pandemic era! To be more precise, the unemployment rate declined from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August, as the chart below shows.
Importantly, the fall in the unemployment rate was bigger than expected – and it was accompanied by an increase in the labor-force participation rate, from 61.4 to 61.7 percent, which makes the decline in the unemployment rate even better.
The headline numbers are, thus, negative for the gold market. They reflect improvements in the labor market and the continued recovery of the economic activity from the coronavirus crisis and the Great Lockdown.
However, when we dig deeper, we would see less rosy picture. First of all, as one can see in the chart below, the pace of the U.S. employment growth has seriously slowed down from gains of 2.7 million, 4.8 million, and 1.8 million in May, June and July, respectively. It indicates that the nonfarm payrolls are clearly losing momentum.
Moreover, the 238,000 jobs were created only temporarily due to the Census 2020. And we cannot forget that the unemployment rate remains relatively high, especially when compared with a 3.5 percent rate before the outbreak of the epidemic. So, there is still a long way to get back to the pre-COVID levels and trajectory.
Another example showing that investors should always take headline numbers with a pinch of salt, are the initial jobless claims. They fell sharply by 130,000 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 in the last week of August (see the chart below), but the decrease was caused by a methodological change in how the data is adjusted to account for seasonal swings in employment.
Implications for Gold
What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, the decline in the unemployment rate is negative for gold prices, as it could restore the confidence in the vigorous economic rebound. Indeed, the price of gold declined initially in response to the release of the Employment Situation Report.
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However, the fact that the U.S. job growth slowed further in August is worrisome. The slowdown shows the fragility of the current economic recovery and puts its stability into question without the new government’s financial stimulus package. The uncertainty about the pandemic and economic recovery should maintain the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and a portfolio diversifier.
So, in the short-term, the correction in the gold market could continue. The inability of gold to rally after the Fed announced its dovish change in the inflation-targeting regime looks bearish and may indicate that gold has already priced in a more inflationary Fed. The improved epidemiological situation and economic recovery could also add some downward pressure on the gold prices.
However, the fundamental outlook for gold remains bullish. The monetary policy remains easy, while the real interest rates will remain ultra low or even negative for years. The fiscal deficits and public debts are ballooning. In such a macroeconomic environment, gold should shine in the long-run.
And do not underestimate the power of the dovish side! After all, last week, the Fed acknowledged that the Philips curve is dead, so it will permit the economy to expand and inflation to increase to a higher level without the need to hike interest rates. In other words, the Fed promised to keep the federal funds rate near zero for a few more years without worrying about inflation. As it has become even clearer that the Fed is more concerned about the weak economy than inflation, we are even more certain that the real interest rates will remain at ultra low levels for years, which will continue to push investors toward gold.
If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. To enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!
Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
—–
Disclaimer: Please note that the aim of the above analysis is to discuss the likely long-term impact of the featured phenomenon on the price of gold and this analysis does not indicate (nor does it aim to do so) whether gold is likely to move higher or lower in the short- or medium term. In order to determine the latter, many additional factors need to be considered (i.e. sentiment, chart patterns, cycles, indicators, ratios, self-similar patterns and more) and we are taking them into account (and discussing the short- and medium-term outlook) in our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-11--Never Underestimate the Power of the Election to Undermine the Markets with Nick Santiago (Ep #114)

For more than 20 years , Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets .
He ’ s made some incredible calls along the way and now he ’ s looking to spread the word .
There ’ s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short .
So now we ’ ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments .
Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends .
Today we discuss : 1 .
Initial weekly Jobless Claims were reported this morning , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Weekly Continuing Claims was 13.358 million .
This was an increase of 93,000 from the previous week .
Overall , there was nothing great about this number , but things seem to be steady .
If other closed states would open up their economy the jobless numbers would improve much quicker .
Unfortunately , politics are in play here .
2 .
Yesterday , the markets rebounded a bit from the large 3-day decline .
At this time , it will be very important to watch the charts .
The patterns will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rally is fading .
Remember we ’ re still in election insanity season .
We ’ ve never seen one like this before .
3 .
Gold and silver rally fading a little bit .
Gold and silver will inflate as the market does .
Consolidation continues .
The next big break out is going to be a monster .
It ’ s a strong tape .
Copper is going way higher .
It ’ s had a tremendous move .
Now above $ 3 .
Keep copper on the radar .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dollar is getting close to a bottom .
On a montly chart it ’ s gone down to its 100 month moving average and has held .
It may have one more little slip and then it ’ s a major opportunity .
UUP could be the way to go .
For more info , go to InTheMoneyStocks.com .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago
For more than 20 years, Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets. He’s made some incredible calls along the way and now he’s looking to spread the word. There’s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short. So now we’ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments. Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends. Today we discuss:
1. Initial weekly Jobless Claims were reported this morning, they were 884K vs. 813K expected. The Weekly Continuing Claims was 13.358 million. This was an increase of 93,000 from the previous week. Overall, there was nothing great about this number, but things seem to be steady. If other closed states would open up their economy the jobless numbers would improve much quicker. Unfortunately, politics are in play here.
2. Yesterday, the markets rebounded a bit from the large 3-day decline. At this time, it will be very important to watch the charts. The patterns will tell us what to do going forward. Rally is fading. Remember we’re still in election insanity season. We’ve never seen one like this before.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
3. Gold and silver rally fading a little bit. Gold and silver will inflate as the market does. Consolidation continues. The next big break out is going to be a monster. It’s a strong tape. Copper is going way higher. It’s had a tremendous move. Now above $3. Keep copper on the radar. Right now it needs.
4. Dollar is getting close to a bottom. On a montly chart it’s gone down to its 100 month moving average and has held. It may have one more little slip and then it’s a major opportunity. UUP could be the way to go.
For more info, go to InTheMoneyStocks.com.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio