investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Major banks say to buy Nikola on the dip, citing confusion over their quarterly results

CNBC- Investors are selling shares of Nikola following the company ’ s first quarterly report as a public company , but major Wall Street firms think the stock is still a buy , and that the sell-off offers an attractive entry point .
The stock fell more than 15 % during early trading on Wednesday .
“ There are catalysts immediately ahead , and we therefore recommend accumulating shares in NKLA , ” said JPMorgan , while Deutsche Bank said the the stock continues to offer a “ favorable near term set up.
” The battery-electric and hydrogen-powered truck maker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per share for the second quarter , but analysts note that this shouldn ’ t have sent the stock meaningfully lower since the company was always expected to report a loss .
Cowen ’ s Jeffrey Osborne , who has an outperform rating on the stock , chalked up some of the factors that led to the steep selloff in extended trading to a ” ‘ new ’ IPO and a company without a full time IR role ” since there could have been clearer communication from the company .
He noted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as well as false reports that notable investor Jeffrey Ubben liquidated his position in Nikola , fueled the frenzied after-hours trading .
Filings on Tuesday night showed that ValueAct suddenly had no position in Nikola , but it wasn ’ t a sale — just a transfer of general partner .
Ubben decided to step down from ValueAct in June in order to launch Inclusive Capital Partners , so the Nikola position was simply transferred to his new fund .
“ We believe the optics of these two matters made the RobinHood/retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said , before adding that it opened up a buying opportunity for other investors .
For now , all three firms pointed to catalysts in the coming months that could push shares higher .

www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/major-banks-say-to-buy-nikola-on-the-dip-citing-confusion-over-the-quarterly-results.html
CNBC- Investors are selling shares of Nikola following the company’s first quarterly report as a public company, but major Wall Street firms think the stock is still a buy, and that the sell-off offers an attractive entry point.
The stock fell more than 15% during early trading on Wednesday.
“There are catalysts immediately ahead, and we therefore recommend accumulating shares in NKLA,” said JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank said the the stock continues to offer a “favorable near term set up.”
The battery-electric and hydrogen-powered truck maker reported an adjusted loss of 16 cents per share for the second quarter, but analysts note that this shouldn’t have sent the stock meaningfully lower since the company was always expected to report a loss.
Cowen’s Jeffrey Osborne, who has an outperform rating on the stock, chalked up some of the factors that led to the steep selloff in extended trading to a ”‘new’ IPO and a company without a full time IR role” since there could have been clearer communication from the company. He noted that items such as the updated share count, as well as false reports that notable investor Jeffrey Ubben liquidated his position in Nikola, fueled the frenzied after-hours trading. Filings on Tuesday night showed that ValueAct suddenly had no position in Nikola, but it wasn’t a sale — just a transfer of general partner. Ubben decided to step down from ValueAct in June in order to launch Inclusive Capital Partners, so the Nikola position was simply transferred to his new fund.
“We believe the optics of these two matters made the RobinHood/retail crowd head to the exits,” he said, before adding that it opened up a buying opportunity for other investors.
For now, all three firms pointed to catalysts in the coming months that could push shares higher.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Democrats were so humiliated that they actually had to leave the room!

Democrats were so humiliated that they actually had to leave the room !
pic.twitter.com/GiuJfOKlNk

Democrats were so humiliated that they actually had to leave the room! pic.twitter.com/GiuJfOKlNk
— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) August 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Trump Can Ensure a V-shaped Economic Recovery by Heeding the Lessons of 1921

A U or V ?
That is the question—whether the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdown will be a long , drawn-out process , a wide , flattish U ” or a sharp , upward-bound one , a V. To best wrestle with this question , let us look back a bit at some economic history regarding recessions and depressions , focusing on the US .
Is this of interest to those following the course of the Chinese economy ?
Of course .
When the US sneezes , China catches a cold .
And , of course , the opposite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the political relationship between these two countries has soured .
But this will not , hopefully , always be true .
In any case , economic law still operates , no matter what are the diplomatic relationships between nations .
The depression in 1921 was short lived—maybe not a V , but at least a very narrow U .
It was created by prior governmental monetary mismanagement , which led investors , as if by Adam Smith ’ s “ invisible hand ” to engage in more long-term capital goods investments than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populace would warrant , based on their time preference between present and future consumption .
Happily , during the 1921 depression , the government of President Warren G. Harding did not intervene with monetary stimulus , and the entire episode was over not in a matter of weeks ( the V ) or years ( a fattish U ) , but months ( a narrow U ) .
The Great Depression , which stretched from 1929–41 ( a morbidly obese U ) stemmed from identical causes .
Here , I am subscribing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Friedrich Hayek , not the Milton Friedman monetarist explanation of a lowered stock of money in the 1930s .
But Presidents Herbert Hoover and Franklin D. Roosevelt “ fixed ” this by propping up heavy industries whose extent was overblown by the previous artificially lowered interest rates , in an early “ too big to fail ” paroxysm .
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff added insult to injury , and put the kibosh on any early recovery .
The blunder of 2008 also stemmed from unwise governmental policy .
In 1992 , the geniuses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the banking system was racist , since banks were more likely to reject mortgage applications by blacks and Hispanics compared to whites .
Rather , in my view , their favorite color was green : the ranking in terms of credit reliability and collateral determined lending practices .
But the US Department of Housing and Urban Development contributed to the eventual crisis by diverting mortgages ; billions of dollars were improperly diverted into the housing market .
Only when bankruptcies were finally allowed did we escape from that debacle .
Call that a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U .
This brings us to present considerations .
As an Austro-libertarian , I see government failure as the cause of virtually all depressions , and we are certainly in one now .
However , I am forced to admit an exception to this general rule .
The depression of 2020 is a product of some very vicious little virus critters , not the state apparatus .
I now predict the sharpest of Vs , but if and only if , all other things being equal , the Trump administration cleaves to market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important , stop paying people more to stay home from work than the salaries they can garner from their employers .
It is beyond me why US President Donald Trump ever agreed to any such a scheme in the first place .
Does he not want to win the election in November ?
Does he not realize that a fast recovery , a V , will help him inordinately in that regard ?
Does he not realize that if people do not get back to work , there will be no recovery at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same error as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff .
Trump should beware this error , because he has a natural protectionist instinct in his intellectual armamentarium .
He should mightily resist it .
Third , do not give in to our friends on the left who wish to boost the federal minimum wage level to $ 15 , or to raise it at all .
This is an unemployment creator par excellence , particularly for unskilled workers .
Does Trump not realize that a large part of his success in battening down the unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly for younger , less-skilled African Americans , stems from his holding the line on this matter ?
The Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security program already has provisions in this direction and they should be strongly resisted .
Fourth , in no particular order , Trump should use all his good offices to stop the maniacal US Federal Reserve from furiously pumping money into the economy .
These are the seeds for the next business cycle downturn , and risk another bout of inflation , which we certainly do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So , Mr. President , embrace the free enterprise system , attain a V , a very narrow and sharp one , and the prognostication for November will be significantly boosted .
Walter Block is the Harold E. Wirth Eminent Scholar Endowed Chair in Economics at Loyola University , senior fellow of the Mises Institute , and regular columnist for LewRockwell.com .
Click here to see an extensive online compendium of Dr. Block ’ s publications .
Click here for a complete list of Dr. Block ’ s books .

by Walter Block via Mises
A U or V? That is the question—whether the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdown will be a long, drawn-out process, a wide, flattish U” or a sharp, upward-bound one, a V.
To best wrestle with this question, let us look back a bit at some economic history regarding recessions and depressions, focusing on the US. Is this of interest to those following the course of the Chinese economy? Of course. When the US sneezes, China catches a cold. And, of course, the opposite is true as well.
Right now, the political relationship between these two countries has soured. But this will not, hopefully, always be true. In any case, economic law still operates, no matter what are the diplomatic relationships between nations.
The depression in 1921 was short lived—maybe not a V, but at least a very narrow U. It was created by prior governmental monetary mismanagement, which led investors, as if by Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” to engage in more long-term capital goods investments than the voluntary saving investment decisions of the populace would warrant, based on their time preference between present and future consumption.
Happily, during the 1921 depression, the government of President Warren G. Harding did not intervene with monetary stimulus, and the entire episode was over not in a matter of weeks (the V) or years (a fattish U), but months (a narrow U).
The Great Depression, which stretched from 1929–41 (a morbidly obese U) stemmed from identical causes. Here, I am subscribing to the Austrian analysis of Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, not the Milton Friedman monetarist explanation of a lowered stock of money in the 1930s.
But Presidents Herbert Hoover and Franklin D. Roosevelt “fixed” this by propping up heavy industries whose extent was overblown by the previous artificially lowered interest rates, in an early “too big to fail” paroxysm. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff added insult to injury, and put the kibosh on any early recovery.
The blunder of 2008 also stemmed from unwise governmental policy. In 1992, the geniuses at the Boston Federal Reserve implied that the banking system was racist, since banks were more likely to reject mortgage applications by blacks and Hispanics compared to whites.
Rather, in my view, their favorite color was green: the ranking in terms of credit reliability and collateral determined lending practices.
But the US Department of Housing and Urban Development contributed to the eventual crisis by diverting mortgages; billions of dollars were improperly diverted into the housing market. Only when bankruptcies were finally allowed did we escape from that debacle. Call that a fattish, but not an obese, U.
This brings us to present considerations. As an Austro-libertarian, I see government failure as the cause of virtually all depressions, and we are certainly in one now. However, I am forced to admit an exception to this general rule. The depression of 2020 is a product of some very vicious little virus critters, not the state apparatus.
I now predict the sharpest of Vs, but if and only if, all other things being equal, the Trump administration cleaves to market principles. First, and perhaps most important, stop paying people more to stay home from work than the salaries they can garner from their employers.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It is beyond me why US President Donald Trump ever agreed to any such a scheme in the first place.
Does he not want to win the election in November? Does he not realize that a fast recovery, a V, will help him inordinately in that regard? Does he not realize that if people do not get back to work, there will be no recovery at all?
Second, do not commit the same error as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Trump should beware this error, because he has a natural protectionist instinct in his intellectual armamentarium. He should mightily resist it.
Third, do not give in to our friends on the left who wish to boost the federal minimum wage level to $15, or to raise it at all. This is an unemployment creator par excellence, particularly for unskilled workers.
Does Trump not realize that a large part of his success in battening down the unemployment rate for the black community, and particularly for younger, less-skilled African Americans, stems from his holding the line on this matter? The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security program already has provisions in this direction and they should be strongly resisted.
Fourth, in no particular order, Trump should use all his good offices to stop the maniacal US Federal Reserve from furiously pumping money into the economy. These are the seeds for the next business cycle downturn, and risk another bout of inflation, which we certainly do not need to compound our economic difficulties.
So, Mr. President, embrace the free enterprise system, attain a V, a very narrow and sharp one, and the prognostication for November will be significantly boosted.
Republished from LewRockwell.com.Author:
Contact Walter Block
Walter Block is the Harold E. Wirth Eminent Scholar Endowed Chair in Economics at Loyola University, senior fellow of the Mises Institute, and regular columnist for LewRockwell.com.
Click here to see an extensive online compendium of Dr. Block’s publications.
Click here for a complete list of Dr. Block’s books.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--AMZN’s Free Cash Flow And Profitability Myth

Jeff Bezos was a master at GAAP accounting manipulation back when Elon Musk thought that “ GAAP ” was a clothing store chain .
AMZN ’ s numbers are just as manipulated as Tesla ’ s .
But the difference between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk is that , whereas Musk is a pure caveman with his fraud , Bezos is clever about disguising and hiding the accounting manipulation .
About six years ago I spent a considerable amount of time deep-diving into AMZN ’ s financials going back to 2004 , which is when AMZN ’ s business really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks of tedious but intensive study of the footnotes in 10Q ’ s and K ’ s , I pieced together a lot of the GAAP manipulation tools embedded in AMZN ’ s financials .
I will note that in 2018 Amazon denied a request from the SEC for more information about the Prime business , including disclosing in its financials the amount of sales attributable to Prime members .
I ’ m certain Bezos rejected this request because Prime is a money-losing proposition and does not want to provide the evidence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I recall sometime around 2013 or 2014 Bezos admitted in an interview with Bloomberg that Prime lost a couple billion per year .
AMZN pulled a lot of of the usual GAAP tricks to generate this quarter ’ s net income “ beat.
” Bezos slashed marketing expenses by a considerable amount as a percentage of revenue , as the marketing expense was essentially flat vs Q2 2019 .
Historically the marketing expense has grown YoY at a healthy rate .
He may have just figured out a way to justify capitalizing some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of the marketing expense into an asset account and amortizing it over time .
This would reduce the amount of marketing expense shown in the income statement , thereby increasing operating and net income .
Too be sure during Q2 a lot of companies cut back on web-based advertising , but if this was the case with AMZN , the cost-improvement is one-time , non-recurring .
Though AMZN reported EPS of $ 10.50 vs. $ 5.32 in Q2/19 , several red flags for me point to the improbability of net income nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the North America product segment ( e-commerce + whole foods + sundry other small businesses ) declined again to 3.7 % from 4.1 % in Q2/19 .
For the first time he showed a tiny operating profit in the International e-commerce business .
I ’ m certain there were accounting games to accomplish this but I can ’ t prove it with just the publicly available numbers .
AWS ( the cloud business ) continues to experience slowing sales growth and declining margins .
AWS contributed to 59 % of the Q2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total revenues .
And the percentage of revenues represented by AWS sales declined .
AMZN ’ s overall operating margin was 6.5 % but the Products ( online + WF ) operating margin was just 3.1 % vs 4.9 % in Q2/19 .
This decline is attributable I believe to declining margins in the Whole Foods business .
Again , AMZN offers fat discount specials to Prime members on many products at WF , which drives sales growth at the expense of profitability .
Unfortunately , AMZN does not break out the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business – yet another layer of opacity on AMZN ’ s financials .
I predicted when AMZN acquired WF in mid-2017 ( at the time WF was 5 % operating margin business being folded into a 3 % operating margin business ) that Bezos would drive margins lower at WF in an effort to generate revenue growth .
The cost of fulfillment rose – again – to 26 % of product sales vs 25.6 % last year .
The Company generates sales by subsidizing the selling price of online products with 2-day free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a money losing proposition and it enables predatory pricing to drive out competition .
Bezos is being grilled by Congress about the possible use of predatory pricing strategies to drive out competition , along other anti-trust issues .
Rest soundly that this is nothing more than political theatre and nothing will be done to curtail AMZN ’ s effort to put the competition out of business .
AMZN ’ s debt increased again to $ 33 billion ( 41 % ) in Q2 but the Company is not using the funds to buyback @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generating free cash flow , why issue more debt ?
AMZN has to issue debt from time to time to fund cash needs .
Without going into the complicated calculus here , AMZN ’ s free cash flow claim is an accounting mirage .
At the end of Q2 2012 , AMZN had zero debt .
It had $ 24 billion in debt after closing the WF ’ s deal .
Now it has $ 33 billion in long term debt .
To my knowledge , unlike most other big companies that issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back shares , AMZN has rarely if ever repurchased shares .
This is because it needs the debt funding to cover expenses .
Finally , AMZN used to disclose the amount of cash it spends every quarter for operating and finance leases plus that amount cash used to acquire PP & E under operating and finance leases at the bottom of the State of Cash Flows .
No more .
Now it discloses this information in the footnotes in a section titled “ Supplemental Cash Flow Information.
” This may sound trivial but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ E purchases is not included in Bezos ’ definition of free cash flow .
In addition , very few analysts and investors ever bother to look at the footnotes .
Bottom line : If I gross up the the first 6 months of 2020 operating income and add a couple billion for growth , I get full-year estimated operating income of $ 20 billion .
This stock is trading at 80x estimated operating income for a business that generates a 6.5 % operating margin and said margin declines almost every quarter .
88 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 3 % margin and that margin is declining .
Right now it doesn ’ t matter .
The stock algos , Chinese retail gunslingers and Robinhood idiots will chase anything that moves .
You make a dead skunk carcass move and the Robinhood morons will chase it .

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
Jeff Bezos was a master at GAAP accounting manipulation back when Elon Musk thought that “GAAP” was a clothing store chain. AMZN’s numbers are just as manipulated as Tesla’s. But the difference between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk is that, whereas Musk is a pure caveman with his fraud, Bezos is clever about disguising and hiding the accounting manipulation. About six years ago I spent a considerable amount of time deep-diving into AMZN’s financials going back to 2004, which is when AMZN’s business really began to takeoff. After about two weeks of tedious but intensive study of the footnotes in 10Q’s and K’s, I pieced together a lot of the GAAP manipulation tools embedded in AMZN’s financials.
I will note that in 2018 Amazon denied a request from the SEC for more information about the Prime business, including disclosing in its financials the amount of sales attributable to Prime members. I’m certain Bezos rejected this request because Prime is a money-losing proposition and does not want to provide the evidence of that by breaking out the numbers. I recall sometime around 2013 or 2014 Bezos admitted in an interview with Bloomberg that Prime lost a couple billion per year.
AMZN pulled a lot of of the usual GAAP tricks to generate this quarter’s net income “beat.” Bezos slashed marketing expenses by a considerable amount as a percentage of revenue, as the marketing expense was essentially flat vs Q2 2019. Historically the marketing expense has grown YoY at a healthy rate. He may have just figured out a way to justify capitalizing some that expense – i.e. throwing some amount of the marketing expense into an asset account and amortizing it over time. This would reduce the amount of marketing expense shown in the income statement, thereby increasing operating and net income. Too be sure during Q2 a lot of companies cut back on web-based advertising, but if this was the case with AMZN, the cost-improvement is one-time, non-recurring.
Though AMZN reported EPS of $10.50 vs. $5.32 in Q2/19, several red flags for me point to the improbability of net income nearly doubling YoY. The operating income margin in the North America product segment (e-commerce + whole foods + sundry other small businesses) declined again to 3.7% from 4.1% in Q2/19. For the first time he showed a tiny operating profit in the International e-commerce business. I’m certain there were accounting games to accomplish this but I can’t prove it with just the publicly available numbers.
AWS (the cloud business) continues to experience slowing sales growth and declining margins. AWS contributed to 59% of the Q2 operating income but just 12.1% of the total revenues. And the percentage of revenues represented by AWS sales declined.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AMZN’s overall operating margin was 6.5% but the Products (online + WF) operating margin was just 3.1% vs 4.9% in Q2/19. This decline is attributable I believe to declining margins in the Whole Foods business. Again, AMZN offers fat discount specials to Prime members on many products at WF, which drives sales growth at the expense of profitability. Unfortunately, AMZN does not break out the sales and income attributable to the WF business – yet another layer of opacity on AMZN’s financials. I predicted when AMZN acquired WF in mid-2017 (at the time WF was 5% operating margin business being folded into a 3% operating margin business) that Bezos would drive margins lower at WF in an effort to generate revenue growth.
The cost of fulfillment rose – again – to 26% of product sales vs 25.6% last year. The Company generates sales by subsidizing the selling price of online products with 2-day free
delivery for Prime members. This is a money losing proposition and it enables predatory
pricing to drive out competition. Bezos is being grilled by Congress about the possible use of predatory pricing strategies to drive out competition, along other anti-trust issues. Rest soundly that this is nothing more than political theatre and nothing will be done to curtail AMZN’s effort to put the competition out of business.
AMZN’s debt increased again to $33 billion (41%) in Q2 but the Company is not using the funds to buyback shares. If the business really is generating free cash flow, why issue more debt? AMZN has to issue debt from time to time to fund cash needs. Without going into the complicated calculus here, AMZN’s free cash flow claim is an accounting mirage. At the end of Q2 2012, AMZN had zero debt. It had $24 billion in debt after closing the WF’s deal. Now it has $33 billion in long term debt. To my knowledge, unlike most other big companies that issue debt for the sole purpose of buying back shares, AMZN has rarely if ever repurchased shares. This is because it needs the debt funding to cover expenses.
Finally, AMZN used to disclose the amount of cash it spends every quarter for operating and finance leases plus that amount cash used to acquire PP&E under operating and finance leases at the bottom of the State of Cash Flows. No more. Now it discloses this information in the footnotes in a section titled “Supplemental Cash Flow Information.” This may sound trivial but the cash used for the PP&E purchases is not included in Bezos’ definition of free cash flow. In addition, very few analysts and investors ever bother to look at the footnotes.
Bottom line: If I gross up the the first 6 months of 2020 operating income and add a couple billion for growth, I get full-year estimated operating income of $20 billion. This stock is trading at 80x estimated operating income for a business that generates a 6.5% operating margin and said margin declines almost every quarter. 88% of the business model generates just a 3% margin and that margin is declining. Right now it doesn’t matter. The stock algos, Chinese retail gunslingers and Robinhood idiots will chase anything that moves. You make a dead skunk carcass move and the Robinhood morons will chase it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Ghislaine Maxwell (Epstein) documents unsealed. Important excerpts will be added here.

In September 2015 Virginia Roberts Giuffre ( VRG ) sued Ghislaine Maxwell for defamation in New York federal court .
The documents unsealed today by Judge Preska are those that were filed under seal in that case in 2015 .
There is overlap with older released documents , so some of this may not be new .
More will be released Monday .
The source documents are here .
The link may be down at times .
I am finding that all of the so called compilation PDFs , ZIPs , and dumps are incomplete or parts of the old @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always seems to be missing , which implicates Bill Clinton and Prince Andrew .
Only go to the source for the complete unsealed documents .
These are the older Epstein files released in 2019 , a 2,024 page PDF .
There is some confusion about what documents are old and what is newly unsealed , which may be deliberate attempts to muddy the waters .
• Virginia Roberts Giuffre says she was trafficked by both Epstein and Maxwell to many men including Glenn Dubin , Stephen Kaufmann , Alan Dershowitz , George Mitchell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jean Luc Brunel , Bill Richardson , a “ large hotel chain owner ” ( probably Thomas Pritzker ) , and many others that she could not recall .
• Allegations of minor VRG being trafficked to Maxwell , Prince Andrew , and Alan Dershowitz .
• The trafficking scheme was international in scope : In France , Ghislaine Maxwell ordered her give an “ erotic massage ” to a French hotel magnate .
Deposition of the victim : “ I was ordered by Ghislaine ( Maxwell ) to go and give him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about having 12 year old girls from poor French families flown in for his birthday .
• Witness interview : Bill Clinton was at Epstein ’ s island with Jeffrey Epstein , Ghislaine Maxwell , and “ 2 young girls.
” Sexual orgies were a regular occurrence .
• VRG listed names who flew on Epstein ’ s private jet , including Naomi Campbell , model Heidi Klum , Clinton , former Vice President Al Gore , and Simpsons co-creator Matt Groening , as well as Jacques Cousteau ’ s granddaughter Alexandra Cousteau @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maxwell directed the minor to have sex with former MIT scientist Marvin Minsky at Epstein ’ s complex in the US Virgin Islands .
• Allegations against Dershowitz : Not only did Dershowitz abuse the minor , but he helped draft a non-prosecution agreement that gave Dershowitz immunity .
• VRG said that she never saw Trump on the Island , at Epstein ’ s home , together with Epstein , or with any of the girls , and that he never flirted with her .
• VRG claims she was trafficked to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foreign president .
Could be Andres Pastrana .
• Emails between Epstein and Maxwell : Epstein instructs Maxwell on how to deny allegations .
Epstein tells Maxwell she had “ done nothing wrong.
” “ Go to parties .
Deal with it.
” • This is big : The FBI was in contact with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell ’ s minor victim back in 2014 , yet they did nothing .
• Heartbreaking : The minor victim VRG was asking the FBI for the evidence ( photos and videos ) they seized from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prosecute her civil case .
Let ’ s be clear , the FBI HAD PHOTOS AND VIDEOS AND DID NOTHING .
• Remember that famous Prince Andrew photo with Ghislaine Maxwell and the victim ?
The FBI had their own copy for years – even before the victim ’ s 2011 FBI interview .
The FBI knew !
They always knew .
• The DOJ let free Epstein ’ s co-conspirator ’ s in the FL case .
This included Maxwell and Sarah Kellen .
Here the victim describes the abuse during flights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• VRG alleges that Maxwell is sexually attracted to women , observed Maxwell having sex with Emmy Taylor and Sarah Kellen , and that she personally had been abused by Maxwell .
• Maxwell also took numerous sexually explicit pictures of underage girls involved in sexual activities .
She shared these photographs ( which constituted child pornography under applicable federal laws ) with Epstein , likely for blackmail .
• Epstein trafficked children for sexual purposes to powerful men , including numerous prominent American politicians , powerful business executives , foreign presidents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other world leaders .
Epstein required the women to describe the events that she had with these men so that he could potentially blackmail them .

via Reddit:
In September 2015 Virginia Roberts Giuffre (VRG) sued Ghislaine Maxwell for defamation in New York federal court. The documents unsealed today by Judge Preska are those that were filed under seal in that case in 2015.
There is overlap with older released documents, so some of this may not be new. More will be released Monday.
(Edit: Two Clinton judges on the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals delayed release of the 2016 deposition until September 22.)
The source documents are here. The link may be down at times.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I am finding that all of the so called compilation PDFs, ZIPs, and dumps are incomplete or parts of the old Epstein docs of 2019. Exhibit 15 always seems to be missing, which implicates Bill Clinton and Prince Andrew. Only go to the source for the complete unsealed documents.
These are the older Epstein files released in 2019, a 2,024 page PDF.
There is some confusion about what documents are old and what is newly unsealed, which may be deliberate attempts to muddy the waters.
Important Excerpts:


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Democrats Destroyed New York Once, and They’re Doing it Again with Daniel Greenfield

Daniel Greenfield returns… “ I promised then that we would restore City Hall Park to the beauty that it had in the 19th century , so that it could symbolize the regeneration , the rebirth , the reinvention of the city of New York , ” Giuliani said , calling it a “ a final gift from the 20th century to New Yorkers of the 21st.
” Now , garbage and filth are spread out everywhere , along with posters of George Floyd and BLM graffiti .
The gift has been rejected by the radicals and racists who have taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The sidewalks have been defaced , everything is covered in graffiti , and the sacred ground over which the grass lies is littered with tents , sleeping bags , and soiled with worse things by Occupy City Hall .
The walls of the beautiful Surrogate ’ s Courthouse ’ s building , a Beaux Arts confection inspired by the Paris Opera , have been covered in hateful Black Lives Matter slogans , including “ Kill Pigs , ” and if you stop by at the right time , you can see a dummy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mask being hung .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Financial Survival Network
Daniel Greenfield returns… “I promised then that we would restore City Hall Park to the beauty that it had in the 19th century, so that it could symbolize the regeneration, the rebirth, the reinvention of the city of New York,” Giuliani said, calling it a “a final gift from the 20th century to New Yorkers of the 21st.” Now, garbage and filth are spread out everywhere, along with posters of George Floyd and BLM graffiti. The gift has been rejected by the radicals and racists who have taken over New York and hate beauty. The sidewalks have been defaced, everything is covered in graffiti, and the sacred ground over which the grass lies is littered with tents, sleeping bags, and soiled with worse things by Occupy City Hall. The walls of the beautiful Surrogate’s Courthouse’s building, a Beaux Arts confection inspired by the Paris Opera, have been covered in hateful Black Lives Matter slogans, including “Kill Pigs,” and if you stop by at the right time, you can see a dummy in a police uniform and a pig mask being hung.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--State Dept. offers $10M reward for the identity or location of “any person who acting at the directi

State Dept. offers $10M reward for the identity or location of “any person who acting at the direction of a foreign government interferes with U.S. elections by engaging in certain criminal cyber activities.” (Video)

BREAKING : State Dept .
offers $ 10M reward for the identity or location of `` any person who acting @ @ @ @ @ foreign government interferes with U.S. elections by engaging in certain criminal cyber activities . ''
@

BREAKING: State Dept. offers $10M reward for the identity or location of "any person who acting at the direction of a foreign government interferes with U.S. elections by engaging in certain criminal cyber activities." pic.twitter.com/VaJzFlmtvT
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--CBS This Morning covers story on Joe Biden refusing a cognitive test; CBS selectively edits out foot

CBS This Morning covers story on Joe Biden refusing a cognitive test; CBS selectively edits out footage from end of Biden’s response showing cognitive declin

Joe Biden participated in a live virtual online interview this morning with various reporters hosted by the 2020 NABJ- NAHJ Virtual Convention .
During the event CBS correspondent Errol Barnett asked Joe Biden if he would take a cognitive test .
Biden refused , then asked Barnett if he was a junkie .
Biden began to show signs of cognitive decline at the end of his response .
After the interview , CBS This Morning ran the story showing Biden implying Barnett was a Junkie and included Biden stating he would debate Trump .
However , CBS selectively edited out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sentence .
• CBS this morning segment ( broadcast ) Biden scoffs when asked if he ’ s taken a cognitive test 192,999 views Aug 5 , 2020 www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=2D4oIQ4gDhs He also called the black reporter a Junkie .
They tried to cover up that shit up too .
They are no longer interested in reporting facts , everything is shaped , you can ’ t see the real Joe Biden because he ’ s a senile racist .
That ’ s running for President as the Democratic nominee .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to offer .

by meme_kat
Joe Biden participated in a live virtual online interview this morning with various reporters hosted by the 2020 NABJ- NAHJ Virtual Convention.
www.nabjnahjconvention.com/
During the event CBS correspondent Errol Barnett asked Joe Biden if he would take a cognitive test. Biden refused, then asked Barnett if he was a junkie. Biden began to show signs of cognitive decline at the end of his response.
After the interview, CBS This Morning ran the story showing Biden implying Barnett was a Junkie and included Biden stating he would debate Trump. However, CBS selectively edited out the footage of Biden having trouble finishing a sentence.
August 5, 2020 – CBS correspondent interview with Joe Biden
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CBS this morning segment (broadcast)
Biden scoffs when asked if he’s taken a cognitive test
192,999 views
Aug 5, 2020
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D4oIQ4gDhs
(broadcast) Biden scoffs when asked if he’s taken a cognitive test 192,999 views Aug 5, 2020 www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D4oIQ4gDhs Uncut response
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iPZemHU8uE
www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2OZpH8bVcE
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyq55Nzm4sg
streamable.com/3wrnr7
He also called the black reporter a Junkie.
They tried to cover up that shit up too.
They are no longer interested in reporting facts, everything is shaped, you can’t see the real Joe Biden because he’s a senile racist.
That’s running for President as the Democratic nominee.
This can’t be the best they have to offer.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Virginia’s the first state to use new COVID-19 app from Apple, Google

I don ’ t for a second believe they aren ’ t tracking us .
RICHMOND , Va. – Virginia @ @ @ @ @ app to automatically notify people if they might have been exposed to the coronavirus , @ @ @ @ @ to use new pandemic technology created by Apple and Google .
The Covidwise app was @ @ @ @ @ ’ app stores Wednesday ahead of an expected announcement from Democratic Gov .
Ralph Northam @ @ @ @ @ using every possible approach to fight this virus and keep Virginians healthy , ” Northam @ @ @ @ @ to AP that encouraged all Virginians to download the app .
“ The COVIDWISE app @ @ @ @ @ personal privacy , and gives you an additional tool to protect yourself and your community.
@ @ @ @ @ using platforms that collect location data to protect the privacy of users .
Although the @ @ @ @ @ to as a ‘ contact tracing app , ’ they emphasize that personal information is @ @ @ @ @ the state .
”

I don’t for a second believe they aren’t tracking us.
————————————————————

RICHMOND, Va. – Virginia has rolled out a smartphone app to automatically notify people if they might have been exposed to the coronavirus, becoming the first U.S. state to use new pandemic technology created by Apple and Google.
The Covidwise app was available on the tech giants’ app stores Wednesday ahead of an expected announcement from Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“We’re using every possible approach to fight this virus and keep Virginians healthy,” Northam said in a statement provided to AP that encouraged all Virginians to download the app. “The COVIDWISE app is completely anonymous, protects personal privacy, and gives you an additional tool to protect yourself and your community.”
VDH officials intentionally avoided using platforms that collect location data to protect the privacy of users. Although the project has often been referred to as a ‘contact tracing app,’ they emphasize that personal information is not actually being tracked by the state.”
www.wavy.com/news/health/coronavirus/virginias-the-first-state-to-use-new-covid-19-app-from-apple-google/
Louis


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Senator Joseph McCarthy – The Democrats are the Party of Communism

What is McCarthyism ?
And how did it happen ?
– Ellen Schrecker

Sen. Joseph McCarthy on Face the Nation
What is McCarthyism? And how did it happen? – Ellen Schrecker
Senator McCarthy Claims Communist Infiltration
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“The Truth About Communism” documentary narrated by Ronald Reagan, 1962
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Democraps paranoid of 1968 style convention riots order everyone not to come

No Biden , no delegates , no congress critters , by order of the DNC : NEW : Letter sent @ @ @ @ @ says `` Members of Congress should not plan to travel to Milwaukee '' in August @ @ @ @ @ says no delegates should plan on traveling either , and that all Caucus/Council meetings will @ @ @

No Biden, no delegates, no congress critters, by order of the DNC:
NEW: Letter sent by top Democratic convention official says "Members of Congress should not plan to travel to Milwaukee" in August for the DNC
Letter also says no delegates should plan on traveling either, and that all Caucus/Council meetings will be virtual pic.twitter.com/DhDYAD3YeF
— Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) July 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Bank of America says some customers may be seeing ‘inaccurate’ account balance of $0 online

CHARLOTTE , N.C. ( FOX 46 CHARLOTTE ) – Multiple people have reached out to FOX 46 saying that when @ @ @ @ @ it showed $ 0 in their Bank of America accounts .
Bank of America confirmed @ @ @ @ @ with FOX 46 Charlotte .

Hi, Some clients may currently see an inaccurate account balance when viewing their account summary in online banking/mobile. Clients should click the individual account view for their correct balance. Client accounts have not been impacted. ^joseph — Bank of America Help (@BofA_Help) August 5, 2020
www.ksby.com/news/national/bank-of-america-says-some-customers-may-be-seeing-inaccurate-account-balance-of-0-online
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (FOX 46 CHARLOTTE) – Multiple people have reached out to FOX 46 saying that when they woke up Wednesday morning it showed $0 in their Bank of America accounts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bank of America confirmed the major online glitch Wednesday with FOX 46 Charlotte.
Multiple Bank of America clients report seeing they have $0 balance. Allegedly caused by some sort of a technical glitch. Not sure how many are affected, but banks biggest fear is panic.@BankofAmerica pic.twitter.com/ezY0p3Lx6F — Under the Breach (@UnderTheBreach) August 5, 2020
myfox8.com/news/bank-of-america-experiencing-major-online-glitch-0-displaying-in-accounts/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--This is BIG.  The FBI just raided the Cleveland office building connected to Ukrainian oligarch, Igo

This is BIG.  The FBI just raided the Cleveland office building connected to Ukrainian oligarch, Igor Kolomoisky, who is a principal of the Privat Group

The FBI has confirmed another raid took place today in Miami , FL in connection to this case .
pic.twitter.com/xLx1V4XF5I

The FBI has confirmed another raid took place today in Miami, FL in connection to this case. pic.twitter.com/xLx1V4XF5I
— TheSharpEdge (@TheSharpEdge1) August 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Investigation of PM Trudeau and his family regarding WE Charity and money within his immediately fam

Investigation of PM Trudeau and his family regarding WE Charity and money within his immediately family. He can’t answer the question….”How Much?”

Finance Critic Pierre Poilievre grills Justin Trudeau on how much his family has received from the WE Charity while he @ @

Finance Critic Pierre Poilievre grills Justin Trudeau on how much his family has received from the WE Charity while he testifies.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--COVID-19 Vaccine may be needed regularly

( June 16 , 2020 ) AstraZeneca CEO Soriot says fast-tracked COVID-19 shot will protect for just one year AstraZeneca , advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford , is among global frontrunners in the worldwide hunt for a viable vaccine .
Now , the drugmaker ’ s CEO says the vaccine is expected to provide protection for one year .
“ We think that it will protect for about a year , ” AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said on a Belgian radio station , according to reports .
After that protection runs out , it isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get another dose , or another vaccine , or rely on COVID-19 treatments if they ’ re approved .
So far , Gilead ’ s remdesivir is the only treatment with an emergency use authorization , but research is underway on many other options .
On Tuesday , researchers in the United Kingdom reported that the inexpensive steroid dexamethasone cut deaths by a third for patients on ventilation .
Numerous governments have already signed deals with the drugmaker to order doses , including an agreement over the weekend from Italy , France @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 843 million for 300 million doses .
Before that deal , AstraZeneca agreed to provide doses to the United Kingdom and inked a $ 1.2 billion agreement with the U.S. government for hundreds of millions of doses .
The company has also struck deals with CEPI and Gavi , the Vaccine alliance—plus the Serum Institute of India—to allow for access in low- and middle-income countries .
www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/astrazeneca-s-covid-19-to-protect-for-about-one-year-ceo-says ( July 27 , 2020 ) AstraZeneca to Be Exempt From Coronavirus Vaccine Liability Claims in Most Countries “ This is a unique situation where we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the risk if in … four years the vaccine is showing side effects , ” Ruud Dobber , a member of Astra ’ s senior executive team , told Reuters .
“ In the contracts we have in place , we are asking for indemnification .
For most countries it is acceptable to take that risk on their shoulders because it is in their national interest , ” he said , adding that Astra and regulators were making safety and tolerability a top priority .
Dobber would not name the countries .
EU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was among contentious points in European efforts to secure supply deals for potential COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer , Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson .
The United States , however , already has a law to exclude tort claims from products that help control a public- health crises in the form of the 2005 Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness , or PREP Act .
www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07/30/world/europe/30reuters-astrazeneca-results-vaccine-liability.html ( August 3 , 2020 ) Pfizer says Covid-19 vaccine may be needed regularly Pfizer expects that a Covid-19 vaccine could be needed regularly to effectively protect from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quoted as saying : “ There is a likely scenario that either the vaccine ’ s immunity will not be lasting forever , or that the virus will mutate , or that the virus will find ways to come back again and again.
” During its earnings call on 28 July , the company proposed a two-phase commercial strategy for its vaccine , which is being developed in alliance with German company BioNTech and is currently undergoing clinical trials .
The first pandemic phase is expected to last through 2020 or into 2021 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high volumes for mass vaccinations , with pricing for broad access .
This broad access pricing is a $ 1.95bn agreement signed by the US Government last week to buy 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine , if it receives regulatory approval .
During the second seasonal phase , Pfizer sees the need for regular annual or bi-annual immunisations .
This phase is set to involve a value-based pricing approach .
www.pharmaceutical-business-review.com/news/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-study/

(June 16, 2020) AstraZeneca CEO Soriot says fast-tracked COVID-19 shot will protect for just one year
AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford,
is among global frontrunners in the worldwide hunt for a viable vaccine.
Now, the drugmaker’s CEO says the vaccine is expected to provide protection for one year.
“We think that it will protect for about a year,” AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said on a Belgian radio station, according to reports.
After that protection runs out, it isn’t clear whether recipients would be instructed
to get another dose, or another vaccine, or rely on COVID-19 treatments if they’re approved.
So far, Gilead’s remdesivir is the only treatment with an emergency use authorization, but research is underway on many other options.
On Tuesday, researchers in the United Kingdom reported that the inexpensive steroid dexamethasone cut deaths by a third for patients on ventilation.
Numerous governments have already signed deals with the drugmaker to order doses,
including an agreement over the weekend from Italy, France, Germany and the Netherlands worth $843 million for 300 million doses.
Before that deal, AstraZeneca agreed to provide doses to the United Kingdom and inked a $1.2 billion agreement with the U.S. government for hundreds of millions of doses.
The company has also struck deals with CEPI and Gavi, the Vaccine alliance—plus the Serum Institute of India—to allow for access in low- and middle-income countries.
www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/astrazeneca-s-covid-19-to-protect-for-about-one-year-ceo-says
(July 27, 2020) AstraZeneca to Be Exempt From Coronavirus Vaccine Liability Claims in Most Countries
“This is a unique situation where we as a company simply cannot take the risk if in … four years the vaccine is showing side effects,” Ruud Dobber,
a member of Astra’s senior executive team, told Reuters. “In the contracts we have in place, we are asking for indemnification.
For most countries it is acceptable to take that risk on their shoulders because it is in their national interest,”
he said, adding that Astra and regulators were making safety and tolerability a top priority. Dobber would not name the countries.
EU officials told Reuters this week product liability was among contentious points in European
efforts to secure supply deals for potential COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson.
The United States, however, already has a law to exclude tort claims from products that help control a public-
health crises in the form of the 2005 Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness, or PREP Act.
www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07/30/world/europe/30reuters-astrazeneca-results-vaccine-liability.html
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
(August 3, 2020) Pfizer says Covid-19 vaccine may be needed regularly
Pfizer expects that a Covid-19 vaccine could be needed regularly to effectively protect from the virus.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla was quoted as saying: “There is a likely scenario that either the vaccine’s immunity will not be lasting forever,
or that the virus will mutate, or that the virus will find ways to come back again and again.”
During its earnings call on 28 July, the company proposed a two-phase commercial strategy
for its vaccine, which is being developed in alliance with German company BioNTech and is currently undergoing clinical trials.
The first pandemic phase is expected to last through 2020 or into 2021,
and will see dose production in high volumes for mass vaccinations, with pricing for broad access.
This broad access pricing is a $1.95bn agreement signed by the US Government last week to buy 100 million doses
of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, if it receives regulatory approval.
During the second seasonal phase, Pfizer sees the need for regular annual or bi-annual immunisations.
This phase is set to involve a value-based pricing approach.
www.pharmaceutical-business-review.com/news/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-study/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Andy Ngo— “I have worked undercover for months & I’ve seen w/my own eyes how hundreds of so-called p

Andy Ngo— “I have worked undercover for months & I’ve seen w/my own eyes how hundreds of so-called protesters work together to carry out acts of organized criminality against government/civilians.”

`` I have worked undercover for months and I ’ ve seen with my own eyes how hundreds of so-called @ @ @ @ @ out acts of organized criminality against government and civilians . ''
Watch my full testimony @ @ @ @ @ : t.co/UBOaCt9mkM pic.twitter.com/xsbfjITDVZ

"I have worked undercover for months and I’ve seen with my own eyes how hundreds of so-called protesters work together to carry out acts of organized criminality against government and civilians."
Watch my full testimony to congress about #antifa: t.co/UBOaCt9mkM pic.twitter.com/xsbfjITDVZ
— Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Why in the World Won’t MSM Show You This?

More hard evidence that at least one hospital in America is pretty much devoid of any real patients .
What @ @ @ @ @ in the guy ’ s video is soon to be shut down with almost noone @ @ @ @ @ Security seems to be quite beefy in numbers though…

More hard evidence that at least one hospital in America is pretty much devoid of any real patients. What is worse is the hospital in the guy’s video is soon to be shut down with almost noone really manning the place. Security seems to be quite beefy in numbers though…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t darkwolf007


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Everytime this guy speaks it’s a pro-Trump commercial in the making

It is inconceivable that anyone could support this obviously impaired individual with a straight face .
As President of the @ @ @ @ @ # JoeBiden pic.twitter.com/tDVquNmC0m

It is inconceivable that anyone could support this obviously impaired individual with a straight face. As President of the United States no less. #JoeBiden pic.twitter.com/tDVquNmC0m
— James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--28 employees at Westlake Food 4 Less store test positive for COVID-19, organizers say

WESTLAKE , LOS ANGELES ( KABC ) — Food 4 Less workers and some community members will hold a rally @ @ @ @ @ call for more safety protections against COVID-19 .
The demonstration will be outside a Westlake @ @ @ @ @ organizers with UFCW Local 770 say at least 28 workers have tested positive for coronavirus @ @

WESTLAKE, LOS ANGELES (KABC) — Food 4 Less workers and some community members will hold a rally in Westlake Wednesday morning to call for more safety protections against COVID-19.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The demonstration will be outside a Westlake Food 4 Less store where organizers with UFCW Local 770 say at least 28 workers have tested positive for coronavirus.
abc7.com/health/28-workers-at-westlake-food-4-less-reportedly-test-positive-for-covid/6355173/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Royal Air Force @RoyalAirForce BALTIC SUB ALERT: UK Typhoons in Lithuania guarding the Baltic track

Royal Air Force @RoyalAirForce BALTIC SUB ALERT: UK Typhoons in Lithuania guarding the Baltic track Russian submarine.

TYPHOON BALTIC SUB ALERT : UK Typhoons in Lithuania guarding the Baltic track Russian submarine .
Download the latest edition @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/Takndy2gyq

TYPHOON BALTIC SUB ALERT: UK Typhoons in Lithuania guarding the Baltic track Russian submarine.
DUST BUSTERS: Chinook crews brave violent storms to airlift French troops battling Islamist terrorists in Africa.
Download the latest edition of RAF News at t.co/V6ElXMgYZ0 pic.twitter.com/Takndy2gyq
— Royal Air Force (@RoyalAirForce) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Millions Without Power, Isaias Unleashes Twisters Across East Coast

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center ( NHC ) is that “ Isaias Is Racing North-Northeastward Across Eastern @ @ @ @ @ .
Strong Gusty Winds .
Heavy Rainfall .
And the Threat of Tornadoes Will Spread @ @ @ @ @ .
”

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is that “Isaias Is Racing North-Northeastward Across Eastern Pennsylvania Into Southeastern New York. Strong Gusty Winds. Heavy Rainfall. And the Threat of Tornadoes Will Spread Northward Into Southern New England.”
–
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Learn More:
www.zerohedge.com/commodities…


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--The Difference Between Good Economics And Bad

The Difference Between Good Economics and Bad “ Real protection means teaching children to manage risks on their own , not shielding them from every hazard.
” ― Wendy Mogel , The Blessing of a Skinned Knee In the five weeks from February 19 to March 26 , 2020 , the S & P 500 fell 33.9 % .
Because of all the bizarre things we have seen since then , that seems like such a long time ago .
Despite serious questions about how quickly the economy will ultimately rebound from the global shutdown , investors are pricing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many individual stocks sit at new all-time highs , and credit spreads are tighter today than before the COVID-19 outbreak .
Meanwhile , Treasury yields have fallen to levels well below those seen before the pandemic .
Mortgage rates for a 30-year term are below 3.00 % .
Eerily , equity volatility remains quite elevated suggestive of investor anxiety and illiquidity .
As investors , we tend to draw conclusions based on market behavior .
When Treasury yields fall , for example , it is not unreasonable to think it portends undetected economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is plausible to believe that the cause is strengthening corporate revenue and earnings .
What if , however , signals are misleading as described above ?
What if the market ’ s traffic lights are green and red at the same time ?
Dare we ask , what happens when good economics become bad .
Beginning in February , the Federal Reserve ( Fed ) initiated several policy programs resulting in massive surge of their balance sheet .
In just 13 weeks , the Fed provided over $ 3 trillion of liquidity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s efforts in 2008 pale in comparison .
While such a policy did not forestall a recession , the objective is clearly to mitigate damage in risky asset markets .
Actions of this sort are becoming increasingly routine for frightened policymakers .
In the name of expedience , they aim to “ rescue ” financial markets .
On the other hand , in Congressional testimony ( those with whom oversight of the Fed resides ) and in media appearances , Fed members apply vacuous counter-factual arguments .
“ Had we not taken forceful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” always goes uncontested by elected officials .
Uncontested because wealthy individuals and corporations are their primary source of campaign funds .
Re-election odds for incumbents correlate well with market direction .
The other issue , the one we write about here , is how that policy response sets the table for other problems .
Henry Hazlitt , in his profound book , Economics in One Lesson , describes it this way .
“ …a main factor that spawns new economic fallacies everyday…is the persistent tendency of men to see only the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or its effects only on a special group , and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be not only on that special group but on all groups .
It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences.
” “ In this lies the whole difference between good economics and bad.
” The Federal Reserve ’ s pragmatism is driven by the influence of wealthy men , corporate executives , and political donors .
By insisting that every action be taken with no regard for long-term effects makes certain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Using the opening quote as an analogy , the Fed has become a notoriously overprotective helicopter parent to the stock market since the financial crisis , shielding it from every hazard .
Just as in the case of child-rearing , their actions are responsible for producing an extraordinarily petulant and fragile system .
This long-term “ parental ” panic pattern results in a variety of adverse consequences .
The worst of them may be the extreme surge in passive investing .
As we wrote in a Passive Fingerprints are all over This Crazy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the current market is extreme .
In 2014 Steve Bregman at Horizon Analytics , enlightened us to what he calls the ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) divide .
His argument highlights the passive , indiscriminate nature of ETF investors .
The monumental shift away from discretionary ( active ) value-oriented strategies was well underway but not yet diagnosed in a way that Bregman astutely observed .
Since then , the wave of passive investing has become a tsunami .
Passive , or index strategies , attract massive capital at the expense of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Money is leaving active managers who regularly hold 5 % cash on average and is going into passive ETFs which hold less than 0.10 % cash • Active managers have historically been the cops on the beat patrolling overvalued stocks and selling them when those conditions are clear .
Those cops are being systematically “ defunded , ” and there is no consideration of “ value ” in the passive index world .
Why are these issues so important ?
First , when $ 3 or 4 trillion dollars move from funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with near-zero cash , $ 150 to $ 200 billion of “ new money ” leads to an explosive upside effect on individual stocks targeted in passive funds .
Second , when money is removed from discretionary hands and reallocated to index funds , there is no consideration for price , ever .
When a passive S & P 500 or NASDAQ 100 fund receives one dollar to invest , it immediately invests in all of the underlying stocks .
It does so at price is available .
The top decile , ranked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most as the inflows occur .
The bottom decile also benefits via overvaluation , but to a lesser extent .
Stocks that do not benefit are those not in passive ETF/indexes .
Those are stocks that enjoy none of the indiscriminate flows of capital and frequently become undervalued .
The Fed is responsible for market inefficiencies in the same way a parent is responsible for the demeanor of an entitled child .
If policymakers repeatedly rush to the care of markets anytime difficulties arise , then investors never see problems .
Prudence and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The buy-the-dip mentality goes beyond a humorous meme , it becomes a doctrine .
Over time and with plenty of Fed parenting , passive investors outperform the prudence and diligence of discretionary value managers .
When the pattern repeats for a decade , then the chart above of net flows is the result .
The concentration of passive investing becomes acute , and its effects on valuations extreme .
As Bregman pointed out in 2014 , a proliferation of the ETF divide had , even then , begun to reveal itself in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The strong correlation of large S & P 500 components to the S & P 500 is now stark .
The table below adds recent data from 2020 to Bregman ’ s original table .
The dramatic rise in correlation means there is less benefit to diversification than historically has been the case .
Owning a variety of stocks and being well-diversified makes sense the benefits of that strategy no longer exist .
Based on current data , diversification using index funds is futile .
Central bankers are prone to applying a convenient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dialogue is usually laced with contempt for those who cast doubt .
That is not a sign of confidence ; it is a sign of deep insecurity .
A sign of confidence would be humility , a characteristic one never sees out of Fed leadership .
Markets are more fragile today because of a hovering Fed parent , shielding investors from every hazard .
The second and third-order effects continue to evolve , but the volatility in the first quarter offered a glimpse of disturbing possibilities .

by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott
The Difference Between Good Economics and Bad “Real protection means teaching children to manage risks on their own, not shielding them from every hazard.” ― Wendy Mogel, The Blessing of a Skinned Knee In the five weeks from February 19 to March 26, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 33.9%. Because of all the bizarre things we have seen since then, that seems like such a long time ago. Despite serious questions about how quickly the economy will ultimately rebound from the global shutdown, investors are pricing the stock and bond markets for perfection. Many individual stocks sit at new all-time highs, and credit spreads are tighter today than before the COVID-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have fallen to levels well below those seen before the pandemic. Mortgage rates for a 30-year term are below 3.00%. Eerily, equity volatility remains quite elevated suggestive of investor anxiety and illiquidity. As investors, we tend to draw conclusions based on market behavior. When Treasury yields fall, for example, it is not unreasonable to think it portends undetected economic weakness. If credit spreads tighten, it is plausible to believe that the cause is strengthening corporate revenue and earnings. What if, however, signals are misleading as described above? What if the market’s traffic lights are green and red at the same time? Dare we ask, what happens when good economics become bad.
The Visible Hand
Beginning in February, the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiated several policy programs resulting in massive surge of their balance sheet. In just 13 weeks, the Fed provided over $3 trillion of liquidity to financial markets. The Fed’s efforts in 2008 pale in comparison.
While such a policy did not forestall a recession, the objective is clearly to mitigate damage in risky asset markets. Actions of this sort are becoming increasingly routine for frightened policymakers. In the name of expedience, they aim to “rescue” financial markets.
On the other hand, in Congressional testimony (those with whom oversight of the Fed resides) and in media appearances, Fed members apply vacuous counter-factual arguments. “Had we not taken forceful action, things would be much worse,” always goes uncontested by elected officials. Uncontested because wealthy individuals and corporations are their primary source of campaign funds. Re-election odds for incumbents correlate well with market direction.
Secondary Consequences
The other issue, the one we write about here, is how that policy response sets the table for other problems. Henry Hazlitt, in his profound book, Economics in One Lesson, describes it this way.
“…a main factor that spawns new economic fallacies everyday…is the persistent tendency of men to see only the immediate effects of a given policy, or its effects only on a special group, and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be not only on that special group but on all groups. It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences.”
Hazlitt immediately continues-
“In this lies the whole difference between good economics and bad.”
The Federal Reserve’s pragmatism is driven by the influence of wealthy men, corporate executives, and political donors. By insisting that every action be taken with no regard for long-term effects makes certain the influencers’ wealth is protected.
Using the opening quote as an analogy, the Fed has become a notoriously overprotective helicopter parent to the stock market since the financial crisis, shielding it from every hazard. Just as in the case of child-rearing, their actions are responsible for producing an extraordinarily petulant and fragile system.
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Drawing again from Wendy Mogel –
“If a child is distressed and sees Mom react with panic, he knows he should wail; if she’s compassionate but calm, he tends to recover quickly.”
This long-term “parental” panic pattern results in a variety of adverse consequences. The worst of them may be the extreme surge in passive investing. As we wrote in a Passive Fingerprints are all over This Crazy Market, the influence of passive investing on the current market is extreme.
Other Factors
In 2014 Steve Bregman at Horizon Analytics, enlightened us to what he calls the ETF (exchange-traded fund) divide. His argument highlights the passive, indiscriminate nature of ETF investors. The monumental shift away from discretionary (active) value-oriented strategies was well underway but not yet diagnosed in a way that Bregman astutely observed.
Since then, the wave of passive investing has become a tsunami. Passive, or index strategies, attract massive capital at the expense of discretionary or active mutual fund managers.
That re-allocation means two things:
Money is leaving active managers who regularly hold 5% cash on average and is going into passive ETFs which hold less than 0.10% cash Active managers have historically been the cops on the beat patrolling overvalued stocks and selling them when those conditions are clear. Those cops are being systematically “defunded,” and there is no consideration of “value” in the passive index world.
Seismic Shift
Why are these issues so important?
First, when $3 or 4 trillion dollars move from funds managed with 5% cash to funds with near-zero cash, $150 to $200 billion of “new money” leads to an explosive upside effect on individual stocks targeted in passive funds.
Second, when money is removed from discretionary hands and reallocated to index funds, there is no consideration for price, ever. When a passive S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100 fund receives one dollar to invest, it immediately invests in all of the underlying stocks. It does so at whatever price is available. The top decile, ranked by market cap, perpetually benefits the most as the inflows occur. The bottom decile also benefits via overvaluation, but to a lesser extent.
Stocks that do not benefit are those not in passive ETF/indexes. Those are stocks that enjoy none of the indiscriminate flows of capital and frequently become undervalued.
Blame Game
The Fed is responsible for market inefficiencies in the same way a parent is responsible for the demeanor of an entitled child. If policymakers repeatedly rush to the care of markets anytime difficulties arise, then investors never see problems. Prudence and risk management are put aside and neglected. The buy-the-dip mentality goes beyond a humorous meme, it becomes a doctrine.
Over time and with plenty of Fed parenting, passive investors outperform the prudence and diligence of discretionary value managers. When the pattern repeats for a decade, then the chart above of net flows is the result. The concentration of passive investing becomes acute, and its effects on valuations extreme.
As Bregman pointed out in 2014, a proliferation of the ETF divide had, even then, begun to reveal itself in unhealthy ways. Those circumstances persist. The strong correlation of large S&P 500 components to the S&P 500 is now stark. The table below adds recent data from 2020 to Bregman’s original table.
The dramatic rise in correlation means there is less benefit to diversification than historically has been the case. Owning a variety of stocks and being well-diversified makes sense unless
Summary
the benefits of that strategy no longer exist. Based on current data, diversification using index funds is futile.
Central bankers are prone to applying a convenient narrative to justify their actions. Their dialogue is usually laced with contempt for those who cast doubt. That is not a sign of confidence; it is a sign of deep insecurity. A sign of confidence would be humility, a characteristic one never sees out of Fed leadership.
Markets are more fragile today because of a hovering Fed parent, shielding investors from every hazard. The second and third-order effects continue to evolve, but the volatility in the first quarter offered a glimpse of disturbing possibilities.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Biden June 30 when he was asked by a reporter if he has “been tested for some degree of cognitive de

Biden June 30 when he was asked by a reporter if he has “been tested for some degree of cognitive decline”: “I’ve been tested.

Biden on June 30 when he was asked by a reporter if he has “ been tested for some degree @ @ @ @ @ “ I ’ ve been tested and I ’ m constantly tested ” BIDEN : @ @ @ @ @ ’ t taken a test .
Why the hell would I take a test ?
@ @ @ @ @ That ’ s like saying you , before you got in this program , if @ @ @ @ @ you ’ re taking cocaine or not , what do you think huh ?
Are @ @ @ @ @ I guess he forgot that he had been tested all those times .

Biden on June 30 when he was asked by a reporter if he has “been tested for some degree of cognitive decline”: “I’ve been tested and I’m constantly tested”
Biden on June 30 when he was asked by a reporter if he has “been tested for some degree of cognitive decline”: “I’ve been tested and I’m constantly tested”pic.twitter.com/LI5d1c5RT2 t.co/j7BnwSKi59 — Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) August 5, 2020
AUG. 2020:
BIDEN: “No, I haven’t taken a test. Why the hell would I take a test? C’mon man. That’s like saying you, before you got in this program, if you take a test where you’re taking cocaine or not, what do you think huh? Are you a junkie?”
video:
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BIDEN: "No, I haven't taken a test. Why the hell would I take a test? C'mon man. That's like saying you, before you got in this program, if you take a test where you're taking cocaine or not, what do you think huh? Are you a junkie?" pic.twitter.com/f6UMPJq381 — Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) August 5, 2020
I guess he forgot that he had been tested all those times.
LOL
h/t Tekton


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Emergency Discharge pipe activated on Three Gorges Dam.

Any idea why water is now being released from this section of the # ThreeGorgesDam ?
Been watching the livestream @ @ @ @ @ the first time I 've seen it… # chinaFlood # ThreeGorges pic.twitter.com/NrLInz9e0v

Any idea why water is now being released from this section of the #ThreeGorgesDam? Been watching the livestream for weeks and this is the first time I've seen it… #chinaFlood #ThreeGorges pic.twitter.com/NrLInz9e0v
— Owen Prescott (@owengprescott) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--83 percent of NYC restaurants, bars unable to pay full rent

The coronavirus pandemic continues to impose a severe economic toll on New York City ’ s eateries and pubs — @ @ @ @ @ saying they ’ re unable to make their full July rent and 37 percent unable @ @ @ @ @ a survey released Monday reveals .
The NYC Hospitality Alliance poll of 471 restaurants , @ @ @ @ @ results of a June survey — when the overwhelming majority of businesses were unable to @ @ @ @ @ indoor dining service still on pause and al fresco dining service not generating sufficient revenue @ @ @ @ @ expenses , small business owners in the food and booze industry worry about surviving the @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Restaurants and nightlife venues are essential to the economic and social fabric of @ @ @ @ @ are struggling to survive and absent immediate and sweeping relief so many will be forced @ @ @ @ @ said Andrew Rigie , the Hospitality Alliance ’ s executive director .

The coronavirus pandemic continues to impose a severe economic toll on New York City’s eateries and pubs — with 83 percent of establishments saying they’re unable to make their full July rent and 37 percent unable to pay at all, a survey released Monday reveals.
The NYC Hospitality Alliance poll of 471 restaurants, bars and nightclubs mirrors the results of a June survey — when the overwhelming majority of businesses were unable to cover their rent.
With indoor dining service still on pause and al fresco dining service not generating sufficient revenue to cover rent and other expenses, small business owners in the food and booze industry worry about surviving the pandemic, the alliance said.
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“Restaurants and nightlife venues are essential to the economic and social fabric of our city, but they are struggling to survive and absent immediate and sweeping relief so many will be forced to close permanently,” said Andrew Rigie, the Hospitality Alliance’s executive director.
nypost.com/2020/08/03/83-percent-of-nyc-restaurants-bars-unable-to-pay-full-rent-survey/


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Peter Schiff and Jim Rickards: $15,000 Gold?

Gold pushed above its all-time record price last week .
Where does it go from here ?
Peter Schiff and Jim Rickards appeared on Kitco News to talk about gold ’ s trajectory and the possibility of $ 15,000 gold in the future .
Peter opened up the interview saying he ’ s surprised it took gold this long to break its record .
Peter said the Federal Reserve has moved into a policy from which it can never extricate itself .
When we went to zero , when we did QE , people initially thought it was temporary and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ balance sheet .
And I said from the beginning that was impossible , and I think the markets are now beginning to realize that I was right about that .
And when they contemplate a future of endless money printing and zero percent interest rates forever and multi-trillion dollar deficits funded by the Fed ’ s printing press , it ’ s starting to sink in , and they ’ re getting rid of their dollars and they ’ re buying gold.
” Rickards brought up something commodity trader Jim Rogers told him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the moon , but nothing goes to the moon without a 50 % correction along the way .
Between gold ’ s high in 2011 and its low in 2015 , it fell about 50 % .
Peter said we ’ ve now formed a very solid base between $ 1,200 and $ 1,500 .
Rickards agreed , saying the retracement is over .
Peter said waiting to buy gold in hope of a higher price is foolish .
Host David Lin said he spoke to an economist who said given the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he forecasts a $ 4,000 gold price .
Lin asked if this was possible .
Peter said the only reason that gold stopped at $ 1,900 after the Great Recession was because people were convinced the Fed could unwind the policy .
The gold bull market in the 1970s ended because Fed Chair Paul Volker was willing to let interest rates rise .
Peter asked what will stop it this time ?
They can ’ t let rates go up because we ’ re too broke to afford it .
They ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they ’ re going to raise rates in the future because no one ’ s going to believe that .
They ’ re not going to be able to pretend they can shrink the balance sheet because if they couldn ’ t shrink it when it was four-and-a-half trillion , how are they going to shrink it when it ’ s $ 10 trillion or $ 20 trillion ?
Who knows where it ’ s going ?
So , I don ’ t really see how there ’ s any way that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Peter said ultimately the world is going to sever its relationship with the dollar .
It will go off the dollar standard and back on the gold standard .
Rickards was willing to put a number on it .
He projected $ 15,000 gold by 2025 .
He extrapolated some data to make his point .
And he showed that given the M1 money supply in dollars , euros , pounds , yen and yuan – if you divide it by the official amount of gold , you get about $ 15,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s really a moving target because they are still printing money .
Peter said another way to look at it is the price of gold in relation to the Dow Jones .
Twice in the prior century during significant bear market lows , the Dow traded down to a single ounce of gold .
So , if you look at where the Dow is now at 26,000 and figure where would the price of gold have to be to equal the Dow at the current price , it would be $ 26,000 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ exaggerating .
He thinks $ 15,000 is actually conservative .
It could be much higher .

Via Schiff Gold
Gold pushed above its all-time record price last week. Where does it go from here? Peter Schiff and Jim Rickards appeared on Kitco News to talk about gold’s trajectory and the possibility of $15,000 gold in the future.
Peter opened up the interview saying he’s surprised it took gold this long to break its record.
A lot has happened in the last decade. We’ve certainly printed a lot of money.”
Peter said the Federal Reserve has moved into a policy from which it can never extricate itself.
When we went to zero, when we did QE, people initially thought it was temporary and we could normalize rates and shrink its balance sheet. And I said from the beginning that was impossible, and I think the markets are now beginning to realize that I was right about that. And when they contemplate a future of endless money printing and zero percent interest rates forever and multi-trillion dollar deficits funded by the Fed’s printing press, it’s starting to sink in, and they’re getting rid of their dollars and they’re buying gold.”
Rickards brought up something commodity trader Jim Rogers told him several years ago. Gold is going to the moon, but nothing goes to the moon without a 50% correction along the way. Between gold’s high in 2011 and its low in 2015, it fell about 50%.
OK, that’s your 50% retracement. Now, that’s the bottom. Now it’s going up and the sky’s the limit.”
Peter said we’ve now formed a very solid base between $1,200 and $1,500.
Now I think we’ve broken out of that range. I think we’ve taken out the highs. I think it’s another leg of the bull market. I don’t think there’re going to be any significant pullbacks from here. I mean, there’ll be pullbacks, but I don’t think they’re going to be very significant. I think if you’re waiting for a big drop to buy gold, you’re going to wait a long time.”
Rickards agreed, saying the retracement is over.
Peter said waiting to buy gold in hope of a higher price is foolish.
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The world is going to be full of people who are waiting to buy gold and who are broke because they didn’t just bite the bullet and buy it.”
Host David Lin said he spoke to an economist who said given the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, he forecasts a $4,000 gold price. Lin asked if this was possible. Peter said the only reason that gold stopped at $1,900 after the Great Recession was because people were convinced the Fed could unwind the policy.
Had the market not believed that. then gold would have kept rising.”
The gold bull market in the 1970s ended because Fed Chair Paul Volker was willing to let interest rates rise. Peter asked what will stop it this time?
They can’t let rates go up because we’re too broke to afford it. They’re not going to be able to bluff that they’re going to raise rates in the future because no one’s going to believe that. They’re not going to be able to pretend they can shrink the balance sheet because if they couldn’t shrink it when it was four-and-a-half trillion, how are they going to shrink it when it’s $10 trillion or $20 trillion? Who knows where it’s going? So, I don’t really see how there’s any way that they can stop the dollar from collapsing.”
Peter said ultimately the world is going to sever its relationship with the dollar. It will go off the dollar standard and back on the gold standard.
And I think this is going to be a more precipitous drop in the dollar’s value than it was in the 70s, so we could see something equally impressive in the price of gold.”
Rickards was willing to put a number on it. He projected $15,000 gold by 2025. He extrapolated some data to make his point. And he showed that given the M1 money supply in dollars, euros, pounds, yen and yuan – if you divide it by the official amount of gold, you get about $15,000 per ounce.
If you’re going to have a gold standard or even use gold as a reference point for money, if you need to restore confidence in the dollar, the implied non-deflationary price is $15,000 an ounce.”
Peter said it’s really a moving target because they are still printing money.
Between now and then, there’s going to be a lot of money that’s going to be printed, so who knows where the price of gold has to end up by the time we finish all the money printing?”
Peter said another way to look at it is the price of gold in relation to the Dow Jones. Twice in the prior century during significant bear market lows, the Dow traded down to a single ounce of gold. So, if you look at where the Dow is now at 26,000 and figure where would the price of gold have to be to equal the Dow at the current price, it would be $26,000.
But maybe if we get a big bear market, those two could meet around 15,000.”
Jim emphasized that he’s not exaggerating. He thinks $15,000 is actually conservative. It could be much higher.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--How the S&P 500 Performed During Major Market Crashes

Like spectacular market peaks , market crashes have been a persistent feature of the S & P 500 throughout time .
Still , the forces underpinning each rise and fall are often less clear .
Take the COVID-19 crash , for example .
Despite lagging economic growth and historic unemployment levels , the S & P 500 bounced back 47 % in just five months , in a stunning reversal .
Drawing data from Macrotrends , the above infographic compares six historic market crashes—examining the length of their recoveries and the contextual factors influencing their durations .
How does the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against previous market crashes ?
Price returns , based on nominal prices *Black Tuesday occurred about a month after the market peak on Oct 29 , 1929 **The market hit a peak on Oct 13th , prior to Black Monday on Oct 19,1987 ***As of market close Aug 4 , 2020 By far , the longest recovery of this list followed the devastation of Black Tuesday , while the shortest was Black Monday of 1987—where it took 19 months for the market to fully recover .
Let ’ s take a closer look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic climate at the time .
What were some factors that can help provide context into the crash ?
Following Black Tuesday in 1929 , the U.S. stock market took 7,256 days—equal to about 25 years—to fully recover from peak to peak .
In response to the market crisis , a coalition of banks bought blocks of shares , but with negligible effects .
In turn , investors fled the market .
Meanwhile , the Federal Reserve Board rose the discount lending rate to 6 % .
As a result , borrowing costs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the central banks themselves .
The tightening of rates led to unintended consequences , with the economy capitulating into the Great Depression .
Of course , factors that contributed to its prolonged recovery have been debated , but these are just a few of the actions that had implications at the time .
The Nixon Shock corresponded with a series of economic measures in response to high inflation .
Soaring inflation devastated stocks , consuming real returns on capital .
Around the same time , the oil embargo also occurred , with OPEC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. and its allies , causing a severe spike in oil prices .
It took seven years for the S & P 500 to return to its previous peak .
While the exact cause of the 1987 crash has been debated , key factors include both the advent of computerized trading systems and overvalued markets .
To curtail the impact of the crash , former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan aggressively slashed interest rates , repeatedly promising to take great lengths to stabilize the market .
The S & P took under two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stratospheric rise of U.S. tech stocks , the Federal Reserve raised interest rates five times in eight months , sending the markets into a tailspin .
Virtually $ 5 trillion in market value evaporated .
However , a number of well-known companies survived , including eBay and Amazon .
At the time , Amazon ’ s stock price cratered from $ 107 to $ 11 while eBay lost 75 % of its market value .
Meanwhile , a number of Dot Com flops included Pets.com , WorldCom , and FreeInternet.com .
Relaxed credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , credit default swaps , and commercial mortgage-backed securities were all factors behind the market turmoil of 2007 .
As banks carved out risky loans packaged in opaque tranches of debt , risk in the market accelerated .
Similar to 1987 , the Federal Reserve initiated a number of rescue actions .
Interest rates were brought down to historical levels and $ 498 billion in bailouts were injected into the financial system .
Crisis-related bailouts extended to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , the Troubled Asset Relief Program ( TARP ) , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In 2020 , historic fiscal stimulus measures along with trillions in Fed financing have factored heavily in its swift reversal .
The result has been one of the steepest rallies in S & P 500 history .
At the same time , the economy is mirroring Great Depression-level unemployment numbers , reaching 14.7 % in April 2020 .
In short , this starkly exposes the sharp disconnect between the markets and broader economy .
History offers many lessons , and in this case , a view into the shape of a post-coronavirus market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely rallying off Fed liquidity , investor optimism , and the promise of potential vaccines , it ’ s interesting to note that the trajectory of this crash in some ways resembles the initial rebound shown during the Great Depression—which means we may not be out of the woods quite yet .
As the S & P 500 edges 2 % shy of its February peak , could the market post a hastened recovery—or is a protracted downturn in the cards ?
This graphic has been inspired by this Reddit post .

by visualcapitalist
Like spectacular market peaks, market crashes have been a persistent feature of the S&P 500 throughout time.
Still, the forces underpinning each rise and fall are often less clear. Take the COVID-19 crash, for example. Despite lagging economic growth and historic unemployment levels, the S&P 500 bounced back 47% in just five months, in a stunning reversal.
Drawing data from Macrotrends, the above infographic compares six historic market crashes—examining the length of their recoveries and the contextual factors influencing their durations.
The Big Picture
How does the current COVID-19 crash of 2020 stack up against previous market crashes?
Title Start — End Date Duration (Trading Days) % Drop Black Tuesday / Great Crash* Sep 16, 1929 — Sept 22, 1954 300 months (7,256 days) -86% Nixon Shock / OPEC Oil Embargo Jan 11, 1973 — Jul 17, 1980 90 months (1,899 days) -48% Black Monday** Oct 13, 1987 — May 15, 1989 19 months (402 days) -29% Dot Com Bubble Mar 24, 2000 — May 30, 2007 86 months (1,808 days) -49% Global Financial Crisis Oct 9, 2007 — Mar 28, 2013 65 months (1,379 days) -57% COVID-19 Crash*** Feb 19, 2020 — Ongoing 5 months+ (117+ days) -34%
Price returns, based on nominal prices
*Black Tuesday occurred about a month after the market peak on Oct 29, 1929
**The market hit a peak on Oct 13th, prior to Black Monday on Oct 19,1987
***As of market close Aug 4, 2020
By far, the longest recovery of this list followed the devastation of Black Tuesday, while the shortest was Black Monday of 1987—where it took 19 months for the market to fully recover.
Let’s take a closer look at each market crash to navigate the economic climate at the time.
After the Fall
What were some factors that can help provide context into the crash?
1929: Black Tuesday / Great Crash
Following Black Tuesday in 1929, the U.S. stock market took 7,256 days—equal to about 25 years—to fully recover from peak to peak. In response to the market crisis, a coalition of banks bought blocks of shares, but with negligible effects. In turn, investors fled the market.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board rose the discount lending rate to 6%. As a result, borrowing costs climbed for consumers, businesses, and the central banks themselves. The tightening of rates led to unintended consequences, with the economy capitulating into the Great Depression. Of course, factors that contributed to its prolonged recovery have been debated, but these are just a few of the actions that had implications at the time.
1973: Nixon Shock / OPEC Oil Embargo
The Nixon Shock corresponded with a series of economic measures in response to high inflation. Soaring inflation devastated stocks, consuming real returns on capital. Around the same time, the oil embargo also occurred, with OPEC member countries halting oil exports to the U.S. and its allies, causing a severe spike in oil prices. It took seven years for the S&P 500 to return to its previous peak.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
1987: Black Monday
While the exact cause of the 1987 crash has been debated, key factors include both the advent of computerized trading systems and overvalued markets.
To curtail the impact of the crash, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan aggressively slashed interest rates, repeatedly promising to take great lengths to stabilize the market. The S&P took under two years to recover.
2000: Dot Com Bubble
To curb the stratospheric rise of U.S. tech stocks, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates five times in eight months, sending the markets into a tailspin. Virtually $5 trillion in market value evaporated.
However, a number of well-known companies survived, including eBay and Amazon. At the time, Amazon’s stock price cratered from $107 to $11 while eBay lost 75% of its market value. Meanwhile, a number of Dot Com flops included Pets.com, WorldCom, and FreeInternet.com.
2007: Global Financial Crisis
Relaxed credit policies, the proliferation of subprime mortgages, credit default swaps, and commercial mortgage-backed securities were all factors behind the market turmoil of 2007. As banks carved out risky loans packaged in opaque tranches of debt, risk in the market accelerated.
Similar to 1987, the Federal Reserve initiated a number of rescue actions. Interest rates were brought down to historical levels and $498 billion in bailouts were injected into the financial system. Crisis-related bailouts extended to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Federal Housing Administration, and others.
2020: COVID-19 Crash
In 2020, historic fiscal stimulus measures along with trillions in Fed financing have factored heavily in its swift reversal. The result has been one of the steepest rallies in S&P 500 history.
At the same time, the economy is mirroring Great Depression-level unemployment numbers, reaching 14.7% in April 2020. In short, this starkly exposes the sharp disconnect between the markets and broader economy.
Bearing Witness
History offers many lessons, and in this case, a view into the shape of a post-coronavirus market recovery.
Although the stock market is likely rallying off Fed liquidity, investor optimism, and the promise of potential vaccines, it’s interesting to note that the trajectory of this crash in some ways resembles the initial rebound shown during the Great Depression—which means we may not be out of the woods quite yet.
As the S&P 500 edges 2% shy of its February peak, could the market post a hastened recovery—or is a protracted downturn in the cards?
This graphic has been inspired by this Reddit post.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--WATCH: Sen. Ted Cruz  grills Sally Yates.

Cruz : `` When did you first become aware that the Obama Admin .
was surveilling the Donald Trump campaign @ @ @ @ @ `` The Obama Admin .
was not surveilling the Donald Trump campaign . ''
Cruz @ @ @ @ @ application is not surveillance ? ''
pic.twitter.com/IJSxalco49

WATCH: Sen. @tedcruz grills Sally Yates.
Cruz: "When did you first become aware that the Obama Admin. was surveilling the Donald Trump campaign?"
Sally Yates: "The Obama Admin. was not surveilling the Donald Trump campaign."
Cruz: "So a FISA application is not surveillance?" pic.twitter.com/IJSxalco49
— The Hill (@thehill) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Wow,  @McDonalds  now has a ‘Trending Now’ section on its drive through menu

Wow , @ McDonalds now has a ‘ Trending Now ’ section on its drive through menu 🤔 pic.twitter.com/aWCBL211zX

Wow, @McDonalds now has a ‘Trending Now’ section on its drive through menu 🤔 pic.twitter.com/aWCBL211zX
— Reggie Wade (@ReggieWade) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--Reasons to be bearish? Only if you have a death wish.

Only if you have a death wish .
The market is putting in some highs , vaccine is on the @ @ @ @ @ job numbers , $ AAPL 2 trilly coming , Congress will make a deal soon @ @

Reasons to be bearish?
Only if you have a death wish. The market is putting in some highs, vaccine is on the way, Trump promises great job numbers, $AAPL 2 trilly coming, Congress will make a deal soon$SPX
— OptionsTrader (@AznOptions) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--US Govt Yields at 234yr all-time lows…. Bond market expects a deflationary depression

Some of the most popular online high-yield savings accounts , including Goldman Sachs , Synchrony and Barclays , have dropped @ @ @ @ @ .

In case it's unclear: bond market expects a deflationary depression t.co/Tq95LyI18c — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 5, 2020
• The labor differential index ('jobs plentiful' – 'jobs hard to get') • Consumer confidence weakened in July, with the Conference Board's index surprising to the downside.#job #wage #consumer @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/056Y4Eq8YK — Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) August 5, 2020
Longer term macro view: The Macro Decade t.co/zglE7epszM — Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) August 5, 2020
🇺🇸Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of July 2020🤔 Nasty pic.twitter.com/NR2z2W2rIv — Antonio Pérez-Algás (@apanalis) August 5, 2020
Some of the most popular online high-yield savings accounts, including Goldman Sachs, Synchrony and Barclays, have dropped interest rates below 1%.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--We’re now in the phase of the bubble where people are coming up with all sorts of rationalizations t

We’re now in the phase of the bubble where people are coming up with all sorts of rationalizations to justify the valuations.

We 're now in the phase of the bubble where people are coming up with all sorts of rationalizations to @ @ @ @ @ 's called `` make shit up as we go along '' .

We're now in the phase of the bubble where people are coming up with all sorts of rationalizations to justify the valuations.
It's called "make shit up as we go along".
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) August 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-05--MASSIVE fire at a UAE market

MASSIVE fire at a UAE market

DEVELOPING : Massive fire breaks out at market in Ajman , United Arab Emirates ; no word yet on cause @ @

DEVELOPING: Massive fire breaks out at market in Ajman, United Arab Emirates; no word yet on cause or injuries
pic.twitter.com/9VhXhHO5g8
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) August 5, 2020