End the lockdown?

Well you are getting your wish .
Lockdowns are ending .
Yes the projected death rate was probably overestimated , yet it was a great bit worse than the flu , so far .
I don ’ t think we will know the true numbers for quite some time .
There is likely to be at least one more wave and there is no telling if and when it will ever be gone or an effective vaccine becomes available .
I think you and many others focus entirely on death rates and ignore the damage SC2 can cause to major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ season ” generally runs 8 months.We are 4 months into this pandemic .
We have a long way to go .
You use a great deal of emotionally charged language which is fine if backed up by facts .
Some of the statements you make are not verifiable .
Such as “ there is a political motive behind the lockdown ” .
One might say as Rahm Emannuel said “ never let a good crisis go to waste ” but to state that the governors are using this for political motives is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hear what those motives are .
The statement “ most politicians never had a proper job ” is pure hyperbole .
I have no idea what a “ proper job ” is .
I also have not idea if that statement has any validity at all .
You also say politicians have no idea about how this is affecting people and how there is a huge loss of revenue .
Again hyperbole and in my view not true .
They are quite well aware of loss of revenue which is why they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are losing vast amounts of tax revenue .
www.marketplace.org/2020/04/14/local-governments-lose-tax-revenue-covid19/ If you google tax revenue lost to Covid 19 you will come up with 164,000,000 entries .
I don ’ t think you can blame all of this on the governments .
We are dealing with something we have not dealt with in over 100 years .
Was/is it being mismanaged ?
Yes in some ways and in some places .
People like to point to Sweden but the numbers in Sweden are not very good .
Sweden is sacrificing its elderly and immigrant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing great .
My leading indicator for the global economy is the BDI .
It is near its lowest point in 5 years and shows little sign of going up .
Some businesses and jobs are going away and that is a tragedy .
My wife shut her business down 2 months ago .
She had to because of the lockdown but though she is able to now she isn ’ t .
We take this very seriously which brings me to the last thing you said .
“ The sooner the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us to make up our own minds about how to handle the situation , the better.
” I have posted far too many times here on this and maybe some have missed it and some are tired of hearing it .
Disclaimer ; I am no fan of any government .
That said the average IQ of Amerikaans is 98 .
That is not very high and is even more worrisome when you consider half of those are less than that .
US high schools GRADUATE in any given year up to 25 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illiterate .
Critical thinking has been largely replaced by mythological , magical thinking .
People are out on the streets ranting about a constitution they probably never read .
Shopkeepers are being threatened and assaulted for requiring customers to wear a mask .
( The Czech Republic lowered its R0 to .8 by requiring everyone to wear a mask in public ) .
I posted a video of a Costco shopper who refused to wear a mask and had his cart taken away and asked to leave the store .
You offer no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a pretty glaring omission .
Chris posted a video of a company in China which has been open since Feb .
In the video the supervisor outlines the procedures they are required to go through to be in operation .
They are rational and effective .
I truly wish , you have no idea how I wish .
that average Amerikaans would be able to enact and adhere to similar protocols .
I am betting the farm that is not possible .
The following article touches on some of the problems .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But as a member here since 2008 I am sure you are well prepared and resilient .
I am sure you knew a Black Swan event was coming .
Yes we will all rub elbows with SC2 .
I for one would like to see everyone do the thoughtful , rational compassionate , charitable things to keep others safe .
Being a realist I understand that is unlikely to happen .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by Mohammed Mast
Well you are getting your wish. Lockdowns are ending.
Yes the projected death rate was probably overestimated, yet it was a great bit worse than the flu, so far. I don’t think we will know the true numbers for quite some time. There is likely to be at least one more wave and there is no telling if and when it will ever be gone or an effective vaccine becomes available. I think you and many others focus entirely on death rates and ignore the damage SC2 can cause to major organs which may be permanent. Flu “season” generally runs 8 months.We are 4 months into this pandemic. We have a long way to go.
You use a great deal of emotionally charged language which is fine if backed up by facts. Some of the statements you make are not verifiable. Such as “there is a political motive behind the lockdown”. One might say as Rahm Emannuel said “never let a good crisis go to waste” but to state that the governors are using this for political motives is a stretch and I would need to hear what those motives are. The statement “most politicians never had a proper job” is pure hyperbole. I have no idea what a “proper job” is. I also have not idea if that statement has any validity at all. You also say politicians have no idea about how this is affecting people and how there is a huge loss of revenue. Again hyperbole and in my view not true. They are quite well aware of loss of revenue which is why they are opening up. State and local governments are losing vast amounts of tax revenue. www.marketplace.org/2020/04/14/local-governments-lose-tax-revenue-covid19/
If you google tax revenue lost to Covid 19 you will come up with 164,000,000 entries.
I don’t think you can blame all of this on the governments. We are dealing with something we have not dealt with in over 100 years. Was/is it being mismanaged? Yes in some ways and in some places. People like to point to Sweden but the numbers in Sweden are not very good. Sweden is sacrificing its elderly and immigrant populations and still the economy is not doing great. My leading indicator for the global economy is the BDI. It is near its lowest point in 5 years and shows little sign of going up.
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Some businesses and jobs are going away and that is a tragedy. My wife shut her business down 2 months ago. She had to because of the lockdown but though she is able to now she isn’t. We take this very seriously which brings me to the last thing you said. “The sooner the government gets out of the way and allows us to make up our own minds about how to handle the situation, the better.”
I have posted far too many times here on this and maybe some have missed it and some are tired of hearing it. Disclaimer; I am no fan of any government. That said the average IQ of Amerikaans is 98. That is not very high and is even more worrisome when you consider half of those are less than that. US high schools GRADUATE in any given year up to 25% of its students who are functionally illiterate. Critical thinking has been largely replaced by mythological, magical thinking. People are out on the streets ranting about a constitution they probably never read. Shopkeepers are being threatened and assaulted for requiring customers to wear a mask. (The Czech Republic lowered its R0 to .8 by requiring everyone to wear a mask in public). I posted a video of a Costco shopper who refused to wear a mask and had his cart taken away and asked to leave the store.
You offer no quidelines for how to reopen. This is a pretty glaring omission. Chris posted a video of a company in China which has been open since Feb. In the video the supervisor outlines the procedures they are required to go through to be in operation. They are rational and effective. I truly wish, you have no idea how I wish. that average Amerikaans would be able to enact and adhere to similar protocols. I am betting the farm that is not possible. The following article touches on some of the problems. www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-united-states-vulnerable-pandemic/608686/.
There are no easy solutions. But as a member here since 2008 I am sure you are well prepared and resilient. I am sure you knew a Black Swan event was coming. Yes we will all rub elbows with SC2. I for one would like to see everyone do the thoughtful, rational compassionate, charitable things to keep others safe. Being a realist I understand that is unlikely to happen.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--Are People Investing In Stocks With Stimulus Checks?

People have been stuck at home during these shutdowns with nothing to do .
Sports were canceled which eliminated sports betting .
These factors along with the dogma of buying the dip led to a surge in retail trading activity in stocks .
It ’ s also easier and cheaper than ever to trade stocks .
The most popular investments by retail buyers are tech , single digit stocks , sports betting ( ironically ) , and anything that ’ s down a lot .
Many new investors tend to invest in what they know which is the popular tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emotions is why it sometimes helps to know who owns a stock with you .
If a stock you own becomes rented by retail traders , you can buy protection , sell , or just expect volatility while staying the course .
The theory that people are using their stimulus checks to speculate in stocks is real .
As you can see from the table above , the 3rd most popular thing to do with the check for households making from $ 35,000 to $ 50,000 and from $ 50,000 to $ 75,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 100,000 to $ 150,000 , it ’ s the 2nd most popular way to spend the money .
The Dunning Krueger effect is in play as people with very little knowledge think they know more than the pros .
When they lose money like most new traders , they will lose all confidence and probably sell .
It ’ s possible that a return to normalcy could pull some of these retail traders out of the market .
States opening could have the opposite effect you ’ d think it would on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy the rumor sell the news trade .
Everyone has known for weeks that states would reopen in April , May , and June .
The good news is the re-openings aren ’ t causing a spike in new cases .
However , stocks aren ’ t out of the woods because we still need to see how the economy rebounds this summer .
Will it go from a depression to a recession or to an expansion ?
The other aspect is the potential for increased tensions with China .
The tensions were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the crisis .
When you see tensions rising it means COVID-19 is waning .
However , it ’ s still terrible news for risk assets .
EPS estimates cratered this earnings season .
They always fall during earnings season , but this was worse because of the shutdown .
391 of 479 S & P 500 firms reporting earnings had their Q2 estimates lowered after they reported .
As of May 22nd , Q2 EPS growth was -43.9 % which is down from -36.45 % on May 1st .
As we forecasted , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losses for S & P 500 non-GAAP EPS .
Obviously , a +40 % decline still isn ’ t good .
The good news is seen in the 3 charts above .
They show the bottom up forward EPS consensus increased in the past week .
Estimates increased for small , mid , and large caps .
That ’ s the order of their recent performance .
To be clear , small caps had a larger and deeper decline .
The trend of weakness in smaller companies continues on the local level as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Many restaurants and bars won ’ t be able to profitably open if they are forced to limit the number of customers they can have at a time .
These businesses operate on thin margins which means for most of them , it makes sense to stay closed .
The stock market works based on uncertainty .
Stocks bottomed as we started to see COVID-19 improve in Italy .
The market didn ’ t trust China ’ s trajectory .
Either China pursued policies few other countries did or the numbers weren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bottom isn ’ t shocking , but the size of the rally relative to the current situation is .
This is the 3rd largest bear market rally ever , yet the unemployment rate hasn ’ t peaked yet , the economy isn ’ t fully reopened , there isn ’ t a cure or a vaccine for COVID-19 , and we don ’ t know if it will come back in the fall .
The stock market bottomed on March 9th , 2009 and the recession ended in June 2009 .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
It ’ s highly unlikely the recession ends in June which means this reaction is quicker than the last one .
More faith is being put in the Fed now even though it can solve a banking crisis better than it can deal with a pandemic .
The improvement in certainty , the rise of FOMO from retail traders , and the fiscal/monetary stimulus programs have all helped push the market higher .
There ’ s also the rise in big tech firms which dominate the market .
The 4 charts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programs .
As the top right chart shows , government spending as a percentage of GDP is the highest since WWII .
It ’ s much higher than the peak in the GCF .
The fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP is on pace to be one of the largest in history .
Plus , there is natural spending when the economy falters ( unemployment benefits ) .
The stock market ’ s reliance on fiscal stimulus means if the 2 parties don ’ t find solutions , stocks can plummet .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a percentage of GDP is about to be at a record high .
More importantly , the Fed is buying more assets ( municipal & corporate bonds ) which makes this QE the most potent ever .
Finally , the 3 month net change in central bank rates is showing the most cuts since the trough of the financial crisis .
This all adds up to a big bear market rally .
The stimulus checks went into the stock market .
That ’ s disconcerting for holders of names popular with retail traders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season ended .
This usually happens , but it ’ s a bigger deal now because the decline was so massive .
The smaller the company , the bigger the decline .
This has been the 3rd largest bear market rally partially because of the extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus programs .

by UPFINA
People have been stuck at home during these shutdowns with nothing to do. Sports were canceled which eliminated sports betting. These factors along with the dogma of buying the dip led to a surge in retail trading activity in stocks. It’s also easier and cheaper than ever to trade stocks. The most popular investments by retail buyers are tech, single digit stocks, sports betting (ironically), and anything that’s down a lot. Many new investors tend to invest in what they know which is the popular tech and household names. This swing in emotions is why it sometimes helps to know who owns a stock with you. If a stock you own becomes rented by retail traders, you can buy protection, sell, or just expect volatility while staying the course.
The theory that people are using their stimulus checks to speculate in stocks is real. As you can see from the table above, the 3rd most popular thing to do with the check for households making from $35,000 to $50,000 and from $50,000 to $75,000 is securities trading. For households making $100,000 to $150,000, it’s the 2nd most popular way to spend the money. The Dunning Krueger effect is in play as people with very little knowledge think they know more than the pros. When they lose money like most new traders, they will lose all confidence and probably sell.
It’s possible that a return to normalcy could pull some of these retail traders out of the market. States opening could have the opposite effect you’d think it would on stocks. There’s also the buy the rumor sell the news trade. Everyone has known for weeks that states would reopen in April, May, and June. The good news is the re-openings aren’t causing a spike in new cases. However, stocks aren’t out of the woods because we still need to see how the economy rebounds this summer. Will it go from a depression to a recession or to an expansion? The other aspect is the potential for increased tensions with China. The tensions were kept at bay as America dealt with the crisis. When you see tensions rising it means COVID-19 is waning. However, it’s still terrible news for risk assets.
EPS Estimates Bottom?
EPS estimates cratered this earnings season. They always fall during earnings season, but this was worse because of the shutdown. 391 of 479 S&P 500 firms reporting earnings had their Q2 estimates lowered after they reported. As of May 22nd, Q2 EPS growth was -43.9% which is down from -36.45% on May 1st. As we forecasted, this quarter won’t see net losses for S&P 500 non-GAAP EPS. Obviously, a +40% decline still isn’t good.
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Best weekly change in consensus EPS since the debacle began pic.twitter.com/dWD8wZixHH — Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) May 24, 2020
The good news is seen in the 3 charts above. They show the bottom up forward EPS consensus increased in the past week. Estimates increased for small, mid, and large caps. That’s the order of their recent performance. To be clear, small caps had a larger and deeper decline. The trend of weakness in smaller companies continues on the local level as most small businesses are in big trouble. Many restaurants and bars won’t be able to profitably open if they are forced to limit the number of customers they can have at a time. These businesses operate on thin margins which means for most of them, it makes sense to stay closed.
Big Time Stimulus
The stock market works based on uncertainty. Stocks bottomed as we started to see COVID-19 improve in Italy. The market didn’t trust China’s trajectory. Either China pursued policies few other countries did or the numbers weren’t true. The timing of the bottom isn’t shocking, but the size of the rally relative to the current situation is. This is the 3rd largest bear market rally ever, yet the unemployment rate hasn’t peaked yet, the economy isn’t fully reopened, there isn’t a cure or a vaccine for COVID-19, and we don’t know if it will come back in the fall. The stock market bottomed on March 9th, 2009 and the recession ended in June 2009. The stock market bottomed 2 weeks later this year. It’s highly unlikely the recession ends in June which means this reaction is quicker than the last one. More faith is being put in the Fed now even though it can solve a banking crisis better than it can deal with a pandemic.
4 charts why the stock mkt is high … max gov spending … max liquidity … not even max monetary stimulus because there is no limit to monetary stimulus Karen. pic.twitter.com/tgCJ6E9FHY — Taylor-Swift Yield Spread (@TayTayLLP) May 23, 2020
The improvement in certainty, the rise of FOMO from retail traders, and the fiscal/monetary stimulus programs have all helped push the market higher. There’s also the rise in big tech firms which dominate the market. The 4 charts above contextualize the size of the stimulus programs. As the top right chart shows, government spending as a percentage of GDP is the highest since WWII. It’s much higher than the peak in the GCF. The fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP is on pace to be one of the largest in history. Plus, there is natural spending when the economy falters (unemployment benefits). The stock market’s reliance on fiscal stimulus means if the 2 parties don’t find solutions, stocks can plummet.
The Fed’s balance sheet as a percentage of GDP is about to be at a record high. More importantly, the Fed is buying more assets (municipal & corporate bonds) which makes this QE the most potent ever. Finally, the 3 month net change in central bank rates is showing the most cuts since the trough of the financial crisis. This all adds up to a big bear market rally.
Conclusion
The stimulus checks went into the stock market. That’s disconcerting for holders of names popular with retail traders. EPS estimates stopped falling as earnings season ended. This usually happens, but it’s a bigger deal now because the decline was so massive. The smaller the company, the bigger the decline. This has been the 3rd largest bear market rally partially because of the extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus programs.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--DD – Cycles and Human History

DD – Cycles and Human History

In this week ’ s edition of DDDD ( Data-Driven DD ) , now that my short term thesis of a 274-292 channel has now been invalidated because of some vaccine company fraudulently telling everyone they ’ ve cured COVID-19 to pump their stock before a secondary offering , I ’ ll be digging deeper into my longer term thesis that I ’ ve been talked about for weeks now .
I ’ ve previously wrote about this thesis from a perspective of economic history and the perspective of liquidity and finance .
This time , lets look at it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history , and cycles that can be in them .
EDIT – This DD is meant to be read as a last part of a trilogy from these two previous posts with the actual data and quantitative content .
Without that context , this post will basically seem like trying to use obscure theories to magically predict the future because of some prophecy .
This is meant to be a theoretical / qualitative explanation of the of what was talked about in those previous posts , as well as connecting them to actions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dalio and Warren Buffett , who are saying very similar things .
Don ’ t bother reading this if you haven ’ t read the first two parts of this trilogy .
Disclaimer – This is not financial advice , and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion .
In fact , the numbers , facts , or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up .
Don ’ t buy random options because some person on the internet says so ; look at what happened to all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money , and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance .
History doesn ’ t repeat itself , but it often rhymes .
This time , let ’ s take a broader look at cycles and patterns that often present itself throughout human history , and connect that to the economy and the stock market .
Much of the content for this piece is taken from the Strauss–Howe generational theory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our place in the long-term debt cycle , and Warren Buffet ’ s take on the same topic when he spent a few hours talking about it in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting .
The general idea of Strauss–Howe generational theory , or the “ fourth turning ” is that American history tends to repeat certain trends within every “ saeculum ” , or human lifespan – approximately 80 years .
This is how long it typically takes for the certain historical events to start disappearing from human memory , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m not entirely sure why this theory focuses on American history specifically , and can be applied to human histories across civilizations , although until recently those cycles may not have been synchronized with each other .
The theory states that history tend to occur in cycles of four “ turnings ” : High – A “ golden age ” of a civilization .
This is when there is strong unity within members of the society , with strong confidence in institutions like the government and big corporations , and weak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the civilization is able to work together to achieve big goals .
Awakening – People get tired of conformity , trust in institutions weaken , and there ’ s a strong desire for self awareness , spirituality , or authenticity .
This is a time of experimentation , activism , and rebellion .
Unraveling – Confidence in institutions such as governments and large corporations are at its weakest , and individualism is at its strongest .
Society fragments to polarizing groups , and public action by governments is barely able to achieve the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the fabric of society and existing institutions are destroyed in response to a perceived existential threat to the civilization itself .
Economic distress is rampant as the economy sees defaulting sovereign debt , high unemployment , deflation or hyperinflation , or civil unrest .
The crisis eventually becomes a unifying force for the previously fractured society , and the civilization comes together to solve the crisis .
Civil authority and governments become trusted again , and self-sacrifices inspire people to work together as a society over self interest .
Let ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the past few centuries in the US .
There ’ s also another interesting theory in the field of international relations that ’ s interesting and probably applicable here – the Long Cycle Theory .
It basically states that international world orders and the title of the most powerful nation , is challenged every 70 to 100 years – the approximate maximum lifespan of an average human life , leading to some sort of global conflict and potentially a change in the world order as a result .
The United States has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20th century from the threat of the Soviet Union challenging the world order .
This time , it ’ s becoming increasingly clear that China has become a new challenger to the American world order .
Ray Dalio is famous for this being a central part of his economic thesis – about long term debt cycles , and the fact that we ’ re near the end of one .
The summary of this idea is that the economy goes through short term and long term debt cycles .
Short term debt cycles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usually see once every decade , usually caused by overspending .
The long term debt cycle , however , is when an entire economy becomes overleveraged , and it becomes harder and harder for a central bank to stimulate the economy .
A hallmark of this happening is when interest rates hit near 0 % , and they are forced to perform quantitative easing to stimulate the economy ; the last time the economy ’ s seen anything similar to this was the Great Depression – this is called a liquidity trap .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ an economic deleveraging , typically associated with civil unrest , revolutions , wars , and asset prices plummeting .
The US economy has been seeing this since 2008 and has never been able to successfully fully deleverage the economy yet .
Another long term economic cycle theory that ’ s somewhat popular is the Kondratiev wave , although this field of economics is not generally accepted by most economists .
The idea is that the economy goes through long-term economic cycles , lasting between 45 to 60 years , of periods of rapid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technological innovations , followed by a period of stagnation .
Currently , we ’ re late in the wave created by the introduction of Information Technology , which started in the late 1970s .
I ’ ve previously talked about this , but basically we ’ re near the end of this cycle as well .
So , it sounds like we ’ re near the end of many cycles ; the generational cycle of the Strauss–Howe generational theory , the long term debt cycle , the Kondratiev Wave cycle , and possibly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Long Cycle in international relations as China begins to contend with the United States for global influence .
In all of these cycles , the conclusion is clear – chaos , economic hardship , geopolitical tensions and crises .
Let ’ s take a closer look at the stock market last time all of these cycles ended – the 1930s .
There ’ s not that much solid quantitative data about retail investors and their impact on the stock market ; only qualitative and anecdotal data .
However , one thing is clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1929 beyond what fundamentals warranted , despite evidence of a weakening economy due to stagnating consumer spending and distress by farmers due to overproduction of wheat , and soon , the Dust Bowl .
Why were they pumping stocks so much ?
Because they falsely believed that stocks only go up .
I ’ ll put some excerpts from this Forbes and this Investopedia article I found talking about this to better illustrate the extent and nature of this pump .
Still there was one big anomaly in the decade preceding , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The American people bought stocks in unprecedented fashion .
Stocks on the installment plan , stocks via investment clubs , stocks bought with capital rather than income , stocks on margin .
It was a big new fad .
Nothing like the participation in the market that the nation experienced in the 1920s can be found in previous eras of history .
The permanent denuding of the dollar , the reality of which first became clear in the 1920s , forced savers to find some instrument that would pay them back in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held its value .
The choice was made to capture , via stocks , the forthcoming profits of businesses .
Here would be money commensurate to what was needed to buy things in the future .
Until the peak in 1929 , stock prices went up by nearly 10 times .
In the 1920s , investing in the stock market became somewhat of a national pastime for those who could afford it and even those who could not—the latter borrowed from stockbrokers to finance their investments .
People were not buying stocks on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of rising share prices .
Rising share prices simply brought more people into the markets , convinced that it was easy money .
In mid-1929 , the economy stumbled due to excess production in many industries , creating an oversupply .
Essentially , companies were able to acquire money cheaply due to high share prices and invest in their own production with the requisite optimism .
This all sounds pretty familiar to what ’ s going on in the stock market today ; as I previously mentioned , retail investors are pouring money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this happening now , about 90 years since the last time every retail investor started pouring money in ?
It ’ s the same as the reasoning behind most of the other cycles I ’ ve mentioned above – the vast majority of people who previously experienced this and would have been alive to remember the 1920s have passed away by now .
With an absence of people alive to have this mistake in living memory , humanity is bound to repeat the same mistakes , ignoring the warnings from our ancestors who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeat the cycle .
There ’ s one pair of billionaires who are old enough to remember the aftermath of the the stock market pump that led towards the 1929 crash – Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger .
Warren would have been born right after the crash and Charlie would have been 5 .
Both of them entered the finance industry while the stock market was still recovering from it , and still below the 1929 highs .
For anyone who watched him talk at the annual shareholder meeting , he spent a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – one of the highs and lows of American history , with a bullish perspective .
He wouldn ’ t have spent hours talking about the 1929 crash and the fact that it took multiple decades to recover if this wasn ’ t relevant .
This is supported by the fact that he bought virtually nothing since the crash , and has been gradually selling a large portion of this publicly traded equities – first his airlines and now banks .
Although he believes that we ’ ll eventually recover ( i.e .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the long run ) , it ’ s clear from his actions that he sees parallels of this from the stock market he grew up in the shadow of in his childhood and doesn ’ t want to bet for America in the short term .
EDIT – Someone pointed out this article by Ray Dalio : www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ which basically talks about something very similar .
I actually didn ’ t even know about the existence of this article and actually wrote this before this got published , but looks like we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and this is a shorter version of Ray Dalio ’ s article .
Recommend everyone check this out if they want a more in-depth version of this DD with more data and this this post as a tldr of it .
This section has absolutely nothing to do with anything I talked about above , but people apparently care about trades I ’ m making and what my magic markers say will happen in the stock market this week , so I ’ ll have this section of this post dedicated to that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since sold , with the exception of some VIX calls , all my short positions on SPY , and currently doing some individual plays – currently holding GSX puts and short ( sold ) HTZ calls , among some other smaller plays .
With respect to SPY , it looks like we ’ ll be in a new channel – this time 293-300 ; not sure how long we ’ ll be staying in this channel for , but I ’ ll be playing it by either selling short-dated iron condors or buying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of the channel .
While magic markers are telling me we ’ re going to be bullish medium term , and go through 300 to new ATHs , meaning I should buy calls , I don ’ t want to go against my own fundamentals in principle by the fact that the stock market is clearly already overvalued .
5/25 3PM – /ES at 299 , might open near the top of the channel .
Will need to see how we open to decide if I ’ m going to enter a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – Looks we ’ re going to be trading on the upper half the of channel on Tuesday , with a trading range of 300-297 .
Might look to pick up some short-dated puts to play the channel if technicals look right on open .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ASoftEngStudent
In this week’s edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), now that my short term thesis of a 274-292 channel has now been invalidated because of some vaccine company fraudulently telling everyone they’ve cured COVID-19 to pump their stock before a secondary offering, I’ll be digging deeper into my longer term thesis that I’ve been talked about for weeks now. I’ve previously wrote about this thesis from a perspective of economic history and the perspective of liquidity and finance. This time, lets look at it from a perspective of human and American history, and cycles that can be in them.
EDIT – This DD is meant to be read as a last part of a trilogy from these two previous posts with the actual data and quantitative content. Without that context, this post will basically seem like trying to use obscure theories to magically predict the future because of some prophecy. This is meant to be a theoretical / qualitative explanation of the of what was talked about in those previous posts, as well as connecting them to actions and thesises of well-known investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett, who are saying very similar things. Don’t bother reading this if you haven’t read the first two parts of this trilogy.
Disclaimer – This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don’t buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. This time, let’s take a broader look at cycles and patterns that often present itself throughout human history, and connect that to the economy and the stock market. Much of the content for this piece is taken from the Strauss–Howe generational theory, Ray Dalio’s thesis about our place in the long-term debt cycle, and Warren Buffet’s take on the same topic when he spent a few hours talking about it in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.
The Fourth Turning
The general idea of Strauss–Howe generational theory, or the “fourth turning” is that American history tends to repeat certain trends within every “saeculum”, or human lifespan – approximately 80 years. This is how long it typically takes for the certain historical events to start disappearing from human memory, allowing similar events to happen again. I’m not entirely sure why this theory focuses on American history specifically, and can be applied to human histories across civilizations, although until recently those cycles may not have been synchronized with each other. The theory states that history tend to occur in cycles of four “turnings”:
High – A “golden age” of a civilization. This is when there is strong unity within members of the society, with strong confidence in institutions like the government and big corporations, and weak individualism. As a collective mind, the civilization is able to work together to achieve big goals.
Awakening – People get tired of conformity, trust in institutions weaken, and there’s a strong desire for self awareness, spirituality, or authenticity. This is a time of experimentation, activism, and rebellion.
Unraveling – Confidence in institutions such as governments and large corporations are at its weakest, and individualism is at its strongest. Society fragments to polarizing groups, and public action by governments is barely able to achieve the smallest goals.
Crisis – This is when the fabric of society and existing institutions are destroyed in response to a perceived existential threat to the civilization itself. Economic distress is rampant as the economy sees defaulting sovereign debt, high unemployment, deflation or hyperinflation, or civil unrest. The crisis eventually becomes a unifying force for the previously fractured society, and the civilization comes together to solve the crisis. Civil authority and governments become trusted again, and self-sacrifices inspire people to work together as a society over self interest.
Let’s look at how this cycle played out over the past few centuries in the US.

1701-1723 High The establishment of the first British Empire. The thirteen British colonies in the Americas were all by now well established and beginning to prosper. The Glorious Revolution in Great Britain has just ended, and the result is the supremacy of the people, through Parliament, over the Crown, and a new set of rights that apply to all Englishmen. 1724-1741 Awakening The First Great Awakening, or the Evangelical Revival. People become much more devoted to their religion and a desire to convert others, including native Americans and slaves. 1742-1766 Unravelling Seven Years War (French and Indian War in the US). It was considered to be the world’s first major conflict, with initial rivalry between the European great powers spilling over to other continents. From an American perspective, this would seem as an unnecessary war caused by a rivalry between two powers far far away, causing unnecessary hardship to the settlers in America. After the war, Britain wanted to recoup some of their losses from all the money spent fighting in North America, and created new taxes, leading to the Boston Tea Party. As a result, Britain then imposed the “Intolerable Acts” to punish the colony of Massachusetts. Throughout this time, trust in the Crown within the colonies started to disappear. 1767-1791 Crisis The American Revolution – All trust and allegiance to the Crown is destroyed and replaced with new ideals. 1792-1821 High After Victory in the American Revolution, there’s a new sense of unity and pride in the newly founded nation. New institutions were created for the new country, and there was a sense of optimism, even during the War of 1812. The period after that war, and leading up to the 1824 election, was called the Era of Good Feelings, to reflect the sense of national unity and purpose within the US 1822-1842 Awakening The Second Great Awakening, similar to the first one. 1844-1860 Unraveling Sectionalism within the US – this period saw the rise in the North vs. South divide over slave states and non-slave states, and tensions revolving around it 1860-1865 Crisis American Civil War 1865-1886 High Gilded Age – Rapid economic growth in the United States through industrialization. Creation of new institutions in the form of industrial titans like Standard Oil. 1886-1908 Awakening The Third Great Awakening, similar to the first two. Also, the progressive era, which saw an activist movement to address some of problems that come with monopolies like Standard Oil, urbanization, and corruption. 1908-1929 Unravelling This period saw WWI, Prohibition, and the Roaring Twenties. During this time, there was an increasing social conflict between liberal urban and conservative rural areas, specifically about morals and what should and shouldn’t be legal (eg. Scopes trial), the rise of the KKK, and is a hallmark of consumerism, individualism, and greed. 1929-1946 Crisis The Great Depression and WWII. The New Deal destroyed many existing institutions, and replaced them with new ones. The aftermath of WWII created new global institutions, in the form of the UN, and started the American world order. 1946-1964 High The Golden Age of Capitalism / post-war economic boom 1964-1984 Awakening During this time, we saw two different types of awakening. The counterculture movement of the 1960s saw activism against the Vietnam war and the Civil Rights movement, as well as an increase in spirituality and self-awareness, which is typically associated with the youth during this period (i.e. “hippies”). During the same time, there was another religious revival – The Fourth Great Awakening. 1984-2008 Unravelling This period saw an increase of the polarization on cultural issues in America, specifically with abortion, gun control, drugs, and gay rights, between conservatives and liberals, starting with the election of Ronald Reagan. The polarization was also very heavily influenced by geography, with liberals tending to live on the coasts and big cities, and conservatives everywhere else. The polarization made it increasingly difficult for congress to enact any big changes. 2008 to somewhere between 2020 and 2030 Crisis This period started with the financial crisis, as well as the aftermath of 9/11 and the War on Terror. Add on the pandemic, and the fallout from it, and we’d likely see another mass destruction of old institutions and creation of new ones. 2020-2030 to 2040-2050 High ??? 2040-2050 to 2070-2080 Awakening A Fifth Great Awakening?

The Changing Hands of World Powers
There’s also another interesting theory in the field of international relations that’s interesting and probably applicable here – the Long Cycle Theory. It basically states that international world orders and the title of the most powerful nation, is challenged every 70 to 100 years – the approximate maximum lifespan of an average human life, leading to some sort of global conflict and potentially a change in the world order as a result.
Cycles in World Leadership
The United States has survived as the World Leader for the 20th century from the threat of the Soviet Union challenging the world order. This time, it’s becoming increasingly clear that China has become a new challenger to the American world order.
Long Term Economic Cycles
Ray Dalio is famous for this being a central part of his economic thesis – about long term debt cycles, and the fact that we’re near the end of one. The summary of this idea is that the economy goes through short term and long term debt cycles. Short term debt cycles are the regular occurring business cycles you usually see once every decade, usually caused by overspending. The long term debt cycle, however, is when an entire economy becomes overleveraged, and it becomes harder and harder for a central bank to stimulate the economy. A hallmark of this happening is when interest rates hit near 0%, and they are forced to perform quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; the last time the economy’s seen anything similar to this was the Great Depression – this is called a liquidity trap. The period following this liquidity trap was an economic deleveraging, typically associated with civil unrest, revolutions, wars, and asset prices plummeting. The US economy has been seeing this since 2008 and has never been able to successfully fully deleverage the economy yet.
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Another long term economic cycle theory that’s somewhat popular is the Kondratiev wave, although this field of economics is not generally accepted by most economists. The idea is that the economy goes through long-term economic cycles, lasting between 45 to 60 years, of periods of rapid economic and stock market growth fueled by technological innovations, followed by a period of stagnation.
Kondratiev Waves
Currently, we’re late in the wave created by the introduction of Information Technology, which started in the late 1970s. I’ve previously talked about this, but basically we’re near the end of this cycle as well.
So, it sounds like we’re near the end of many cycles; the generational cycle of the Strauss–Howe generational theory, the long term debt cycle, the Kondratiev Wave cycle, and possibly the beginning of the end of the Long Cycle in international relations as China begins to contend with the United States for global influence. In all of these cycles, the conclusion is clear – chaos, economic hardship, geopolitical tensions and crises. Let’s take a closer look at the stock market last time all of these cycles ended – the 1930s.
Retail Investors in the 1920s
There’s not that much solid quantitative data about retail investors and their impact on the stock market; only qualitative and anecdotal data. However, one thing is clear – retail investors pumped the market in 1929 beyond what fundamentals warranted, despite evidence of a weakening economy due to stagnating consumer spending and distress by farmers due to overproduction of wheat, and soon, the Dust Bowl. Why were they pumping stocks so much? Because they falsely believed that stocks only go up. I’ll put some excerpts from this Forbes and this Investopedia article I found talking about this to better illustrate the extent and nature of this pump.
Still there was one big anomaly in the decade preceding, the 1920s, and it remains instructive today. The American people bought stocks in unprecedented fashion. Stocks on the installment plan, stocks via investment clubs, stocks bought with capital rather than income, stocks on margin. It was a big new fad. Nothing like the participation in the market that the nation experienced in the 1920s can be found in previous eras of history.
The permanent denuding of the dollar, the reality of which first became clear in the 1920s, forced savers to find some instrument that would pay them back in the old way, in money that held its value. The choice was made to capture, via stocks, the forthcoming profits of businesses. Here would be money commensurate to what was needed to buy things in the future.
Until the peak in 1929, stock prices went up by nearly 10 times. In the 1920s, investing in the stock market became somewhat of a national pastime for those who could afford it and even those who could not—the latter borrowed from stockbrokers to finance their investments.
People were not buying stocks on fundamentals; they were buying in anticipation of rising share prices. Rising share prices simply brought more people into the markets, convinced that it was easy money. In mid-1929, the economy stumbled due to excess production in many industries, creating an oversupply. Essentially, companies were able to acquire money cheaply due to high share prices and invest in their own production with the requisite optimism.
This all sounds pretty familiar to what’s going on in the stock market today; as I previously mentioned, retail investors are pouring money in at unprecedented levels. Why is this happening now, about 90 years since the last time every retail investor started pouring money in? It’s the same as the reasoning behind most of the other cycles I’ve mentioned above – the vast majority of people who previously experienced this and would have been alive to remember the 1920s have passed away by now. With an absence of people alive to have this mistake in living memory, humanity is bound to repeat the same mistakes, ignoring the warnings from our ancestors who are no longer with us, and repeat the cycle.
There’s one pair of billionaires who are old enough to remember the aftermath of the the stock market pump that led towards the 1929 crash – Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Warren would have been born right after the crash and Charlie would have been 5. Both of them entered the finance industry while the stock market was still recovering from it, and still below the 1929 highs. For anyone who watched him talk at the annual shareholder meeting, he spent a few hours talking about a similar story – one of the highs and lows of American history, with a bullish perspective. He wouldn’t have spent hours talking about the 1929 crash and the fact that it took multiple decades to recover if this wasn’t relevant. This is supported by the fact that he bought virtually nothing since the crash, and has been gradually selling a large portion of this publicly traded equities – first his airlines and now banks. Although he believes that we’ll eventually recover (i.e. “Never bet against American”, in the long run), it’s clear from his actions that he sees parallels of this from the stock market he grew up in the shadow of in his childhood and doesn’t want to bet for America in the short term.
EDIT – Someone pointed out this article by Ray Dalio: www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ which basically talks about something very similar. I actually didn’t even know about the existence of this article and actually wrote this before this got published, but looks like we both came to the same conclusion, and this is a shorter version of Ray Dalio’s article. Recommend everyone check this out if they want a more in-depth version of this DD with more data and this this post as a tldr of it.
Weekly SPY Watch Updates
This section has absolutely nothing to do with anything I talked about above, but people apparently care about trades I’m making and what my magic markers say will happen in the stock market this week, so I’ll have this section of this post dedicated to that and my updates.
I’ve since sold, with the exception of some VIX calls, all my short positions on SPY, and currently doing some individual plays – currently holding GSX puts and short (sold) HTZ calls, among some other smaller plays. With respect to SPY, it looks like we’ll be in a new channel – this time 293-300; not sure how long we’ll be staying in this channel for, but I’ll be playing it by either selling short-dated iron condors or buying calls / puts when it reaches one end of the channel. While magic markers are telling me we’re going to be bullish medium term, and go through 300 to new ATHs, meaning I should buy calls, I don’t want to go against my own fundamentals in principle by the fact that the stock market is clearly already overvalued.
5/25 3PM – /ES at 299, might open near the top of the channel. Will need to see how we open to decide if I’m going to enter a position on SPY again.
5/25 10PM – Looks we’re going to be trading on the upper half the of channel on Tuesday, with a trading range of 300-297. Might look to pick up some short-dated puts to play the channel if technicals look right on open.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--This is how they normalize chip implants

Article talking about why chip implants are “ good for you ” .
Im sure we will get more articles @ @ @ @ @ .

by lemonkid12345
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Article talking about why chip implants are “good for you”. Im sure we will get more articles like this in the future.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--SELCO: The COVID Pandemic in the Balkans Was a Reminder of Survival Mode

Watching how the pandemic stuff worked here around me in the Balkan countries was something like re-learning about prepping , and actually it was good class ( unless you were sick , got fired or similar ) .
Rough times from the pandemic here are pretty much gone , at least that peak of it , so some things can be summarized .
Other things , like unemployment , surged as a result of everything and is still on the rise , so that catastrophe is still building , not to mention expectations of a second wave .
There might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are , but some things are different here , mostly because of the history of this region in the last 25-30 years .
People here have experienced civil wars , sieges , UN sanctions , the fall of systems , curfews , martial laws , mass executions , life without electricity or running water , bombardments… so the whole coronavirus stuff is not like a joke here , but people more easily go into that “ survival mode ” or easily adapt to hard things than elsewhere .
The pandemic , and rumors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when some strange epidemics happened always in the same region of the world , and you hear or read about it somewhere , and kind of forget about it ( because those things happen always somewhere else in some far part of the world ) ?
Yes , it was like that There was a new disease somewhere far away , and nobody gave sh*t about it .
It started there and it will end up there .
Only it spread so fast everywhere .
Note : it can happen anywhere I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the virus being discovered in Italy ( which is close by the way ) .
At the time the first cases showed up here , people were still reluctant to use masks publicly .
It was something like they were shy to admit that they took the threat seriously because the general feeling was it was nothing , at least most people said so .
There is something in the human mentality that they never believe it can happen to them , even here where people have experienced a lot of things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed up in the cities there was a sudden shift from the “ Nah , it is nothing ” to the “ Sh*t , this is real ” , and of course both reactions were on the far ends of the spectrum .
Both reactions were “ overreactions ” but that is human too .
Note : It is hard to believe in things that you have not experienced before .
The first cases of the virus brought panic in the shops , so you could see big malls crowded with people , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what they feared most .
They gathered together in big shops to get food , hygiene stuff , and all else .
So in the same time , it was run for resources and try not to be in a big crowd .
The results of that were ridiculous because folks tried to do it fast , and it was impossible to do it fast because of too large a demand .
Note : Always be a few steps ahead , it sucks to realize something when the majority of folks realize it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them .
Some stuff started to be hard to find after a few days , things like flour and particular kinds of food .
The information was out that there was enough food in storage , just that there was not enough particular items on shelves because of the sudden huge demand .
But , of course , nobody listened too much .
Actually , most of the folks took it as false news for keeping people calm , which resulted exactly in the opposite – an even bigger run for some items @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical alcohol , alcohol pads , and similar items were impossible to find after a couple of days .
Well , actually , it was possible to find it on the black market , at prices 10 times more expensive , sometimes even more .
Soon people realized that , for example , you can make alcohol for disinfection from industrial alcohol , by diluting it , and that kind of industrial alcohol is dirt cheap .
Then prices for that went sharply up in few days .
When most of the businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curfew started , the streets were empty and folks were scared .
It started to bring the whole thing to a new dimension , of course with the help of media news bombardment about how the virus spread , what is dangerous , how many people could die , and whatnot .
So , in reality , maybe ten days after the “ Nah , it is nothing ” stage , a lot of folks brought themselves to the point of if someone sneezed 100 meters away they would run .
Everybody was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was about , and actually nobody knew nothing for sure .
Note : When there is no real information , some information has to fill the vacuum – even if it ’ s false .
Well , it was different here from region to region , but one thing common to all was the fact that nobody was properly ready for it .
Medical systems here are already “ limping ” for decades , so a situation like a new pandemic easily pushed it to an almost complete halt .
Actually , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up here , it already was clear that the basic medical supply needed for the pandemic is short : masks , protective suits , disinfectant…and all of that was missing in hospital settings by 10 days after the start .
It was not completely gone but was very limited , especially in terms of quality .
So for example , to work with patients highly suspected to have COVID , as a medical personnel , you needed to use one or two pairs of disposable gloves for the whole shift , a face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that kind of patient , and “ wash ” disposable equipment and similar .
The situation here was not even close to being like in some other European countries when it comes to numbers , luckily .
But it was for sure clear that many other patients missed care for their illnesses because everything kinda “ shrank ” because of Covid patients .
So for example , if you were a person with chronic heart disease , you had a much bigger chance of dying in this period because of a lack of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” or “ closed ” because of the expectation of COVID patients and the restrictions around that .
Note : Know your health situation , and prepare to cope with it on your own for some time Everything is about politics and influence here .
Probably everywhere is similar .
The whole COVID thing was used both on a “ larger ” and “ smaller ” scale .
On the larger scale or map , a different kind of “ help ” was coming from the world to this region , because as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit “ trashed ” here .
That help was used to install some influences here from many sides , so you could see here a plane landing with help from one country , being welcomed from the whole set of local politicians , publicly announced , praised , played on TV , and the same help , or even larger help , from some other country , being ignored .
All combinations were in place , because a hard situation or big fear from a possible hard situation is a very good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the media played really nicely with it .
On local levels it was clear how fear and panic influenced folks on the ground in terms of sociology .
For example there were cases of locking down areas without any real reason , just because of fear , or examples of almost mutinies from some cities ( toward central governments ) in the name of health .
Luckily the situation here lasted a pretty short time , and it was not nearly bad as expected .
If it had lasted longer , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” in terms of regions and cities would have happened .
Note : Eventually , it always comes down to your own survival circle , your group , or family All of the above in this article is written in the past tense .
It happened , it ended , but actually , nobody knows what comes next , in terms of a possible second wave .
But this is especially true in terms of the horrible economic situation after all of this , which is gon na be much worse than any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it did not actually end yet .

by Selco Begovic
Watching how the pandemic stuff worked here around me in the Balkan countries was something like re-learning about prepping, and actually it was good class (unless you were sick, got fired or similar).
Rough times from the pandemic here are pretty much gone, at least that peak of it, so some things can be summarized. Other things, like unemployment, surged as a result of everything and is still on the rise, so that catastrophe is still building, not to mention expectations of a second wave.
There might be similarities with the situation wherever you are, but some things are different here, mostly because of the history of this region in the last 25-30 years. People here have experienced civil wars, sieges, UN sanctions, the fall of systems, curfews, martial laws, mass executions, life without electricity or running water, bombardments… so the whole coronavirus stuff is not like a joke here, but people more easily go into that “survival mode” or easily adapt to hard things than elsewhere.
The pandemic, and rumors about the pandemic
You know that feeling when some strange epidemics happened always in the same region of the world, and you hear or read about it somewhere, and kind of forget about it (because those things happen always somewhere else in some far part of the world)?
Yes, it was like that
There was a new disease somewhere far away, and nobody gave sh*t about it. It started there and it will end up there.
Only it spread so fast everywhere.
Note: it can happen anywhere
I think the first real feeling of possible danger was the virus being discovered in Italy (which is close by the way). At the time the first cases showed up here, people were still reluctant to use masks publicly. It was something like they were shy to admit that they took the threat seriously because the general feeling was it was nothing, at least most people said so.
There is something in the human mentality that they never believe it can happen to them, even here where people have experienced a lot of things. So when the first real cases showed up in the cities there was a sudden shift from the “Nah, it is nothing” to the “Sh*t, this is real”, and of course both reactions were on the far ends of the spectrum. Both reactions were “overreactions” but that is human too.
Note: It is hard to believe in things that you have not experienced before.
Then the panic
The first cases of the virus brought panic in the shops, so you could see big malls crowded with people, which was funny because people actually did what they feared most. They gathered together in big shops to get food, hygiene stuff, and all else. So in the same time, it was run for resources and try not to be in a big crowd. The results of that were ridiculous because folks tried to do it fast, and it was impossible to do it fast because of too large a demand.
Note: Always be a few steps ahead, it sucks to realize something when the majority of folks realize it, You need to realize it before them.
Some stuff started to be hard to find after a few days, things like flour and particular kinds of food.
The information was out that there was enough food in storage, just that there was not enough particular items on shelves because of the sudden huge demand. But, of course, nobody listened too much. Actually, most of the folks took it as false news for keeping people calm, which resulted exactly in the opposite – an even bigger run for some items.
Hand sanitizer, face masks, medical alcohol, alcohol pads, and similar items were impossible to find after a couple of days. Well, actually, it was possible to find it on the black market, at prices 10 times more expensive, sometimes even more.
Soon people realized that, for example, you can make alcohol for disinfection from industrial alcohol, by diluting it, and that kind of industrial alcohol is dirt cheap. Then prices for that went sharply up in few days.
Note: Adapt. (Related article)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
When most of the businesses were closed, and after a night-time curfew started, the streets were empty and folks were scared. It started to bring the whole thing to a new dimension, of course with the help of media news bombardment about how the virus spread, what is dangerous, how many people could die, and whatnot.
So, in reality, maybe ten days after the “Nah, it is nothing” stage, a lot of folks brought themselves to the point of if someone sneezed 100 meters away they would run.
Everybody was full of info about what exactly virus was about, and actually nobody knew nothing for sure.
Note: When there is no real information, some information has to fill the vacuum – even if it’s false.
The medical system
Well, it was different here from region to region, but one thing common to all was the fact that nobody was properly ready for it.
Medical systems here are already “limping” for decades, so a situation like a new pandemic easily pushed it to an almost complete halt.
Actually, a few days after the first cases showed up here, it already was clear that the basic medical supply needed for the pandemic is short: masks, protective suits, disinfectant…and all of that was missing in hospital settings by 10 days after the start.
It was not completely gone but was very limited, especially in terms of quality. So for example, to work with patients highly suspected to have COVID, as a medical personnel, you needed to use one or two pairs of disposable gloves for the whole shift, a face mask that is clearly not meant for that kind of patient, and “wash” disposable equipment and similar.
Medical workers worked without strict days off schedule.
The situation here was not even close to being like in some other European countries when it comes to numbers, luckily. But it was for sure clear that many other patients missed care for their illnesses because everything kinda “shrank” because of Covid patients. So for example, if you were a person with chronic heart disease, you had a much bigger chance of dying in this period because of a lack of care. The medical system “diverted” or “closed” because of the expectation of COVID patients and the restrictions around that.
Note: Know your health situation, and prepare to cope with it on your own for some time
The politics
Everything is about politics and influence here. Probably everywhere is similar.
The whole COVID thing was used both on a “larger” and “smaller” scale.
On the larger scale or map, a different kind of “help” was coming from the world to this region, because as I mentioned, the medical systems are a bit “trashed” here. That help was used to install some influences here from many sides, so you could see here a plane landing with help from one country, being welcomed from the whole set of local politicians, publicly announced, praised, played on TV, and the same help, or even larger help, from some other country, being ignored. All combinations were in place, because a hard situation or big fear from a possible hard situation is a very good opportunity to influence folks.
The power of the media played really nicely with it.
On local levels it was clear how fear and panic influenced folks on the ground in terms of sociology.
For example there were cases of locking down areas without any real reason, just because of fear, or examples of almost mutinies from some cities (toward central governments) in the name of health.
Luckily the situation here lasted a pretty short time, and it was not nearly bad as expected. If it had lasted longer, then a situation like “everybody for himself” in terms of regions and cities would have happened.
Note: Eventually, it always comes down to your own survival circle, your group, or family
All of the above in this article is written in the past tense. It happened, it ended, but actually, nobody knows what comes next, in terms of a possible second wave. But this is especially true in terms of the horrible economic situation after all of this, which is gonna be much worse than any disease, so no, in truth, it did not actually end yet.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--SURVEILLANCE SCANDALS: “One thing remains brutally obvious. This entire surveillance network hits on

SURVEILLANCE SCANDALS: “One thing remains brutally obvious. This entire surveillance network hits on the epicenter of DC’s corrupt interests.”

When contemplating the malign activity of Rod Rosenstein ; and how angered President Trump is with former AG Jeff Sessions ; it is worth remembering that Sessions requested Rod Rosenstein as his deputy , and then immediately thereafter Sessions recused himself , effectively positioning Rosenstein to run the operation against President Trump .
That ’ s the background context for a great interview by Gregg Jarrett where Jarrett walks through the timeline of events with former HPSCI Chairman Devin Nunes .
At the 5:30 point of the interview , Nunes identifies Rosenstein as part of the coup attempt and blasts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scope memos .
Nunes says his investigation is now looking at the part of the effort where Robert Mueller ’ s investigation was used as part of the initiating effort to remove President Trump .
With the focus on the Mueller team , Nunes is now making additional criminal referrals based on his findings .
WATCH : The Obama-era surveillance network is at the center of all of this .
It ’ s worth remembering Sharyl Attkisson has identified Rosenstein as a defendant in her lawsuit about illegal surveillance operations carried out while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the lawsuit ( full pdf ) Rod Rosenstein , as the U.S. Attorney for Maryland , was in charge of the Obama 2011 and 2012 operation to monitor journalists specific to Ms. Attkisson ’ s reporting on Fast-n-Furious and Benghazi .
Former DOJ Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein is named in the Attkisson lawsuit as the person who was in charge of the operation ; and the former head of the FBI DC field office , Shawn Henry is also outlined .
Mr. Henry is the head of Crowdstrike , a contractor for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security and forensic company .
Those who have followed the aspects related to the FBI use of the NSA database to illegally monitor U.S. persons ; and those who followed the DNC cover story of Russia “ hacking ” ; will be familiar with Crowdstrike .
What I find additionally interesting is the overall timeline in the bigger picture .
In the April 2017 release from FISC Judge Rosemary Collyer outlining the abuses of the FISA-702 process by FBI “ contractors ” , where the NSA database was being use for unlawful surveillance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the findings of her review of the period from November ’ 15 to May ’ 16 ( 85 % non compliant rate ) was likely to have been happening since 2012 .
[ Go Deep ] The “ IRS Scandal ” were the DOJ was creating a list of U.S. persons for political targeting , and requested CD ROM ’ s of tax filings , was the lead-up to the 2012 exploitation of the NSA database .
[ The Secret Research Project ] So there ’ s a larger picture of government surveillance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear .
Political spying 1.0 was actually the weaponization of the IRS .
This is where the term “ Secret Research Project ” originated as a description from the Obama team .
It involved the U.S. Department of Justice under Eric Holder and the FBI under Robert Mueller .
It never made sense why Eric Holder requested over 1 million tax records via CD ROM , until overlaying the timeline of the FISA abuse : Why disks ?
Why send a stack of DISKS to the DOJ and FBI when there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IRS .
All of the evidence within this sketchy operation came directly to the surface in early spring 2012 .
This is the same time-frame when DNI James Clapper falsely denied to congress about the U.S. government -through the NSA- collecting metadata on all U.S. electronic communication .
This is the same time-frame where CIA Director John Brennan was monitoring the computer networks of congressional intelligence oversight staff .
Within the Attkisson lawsuit the DOJ inspector general is identified as adverse to the interests of the case .
Meaning DOJ Inspector General Michael @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the institution cover-up what independent computer forensic technicians were able to discover .
Employees from the IG ’ s office also told Ms. Attkisson they had received instructions from the DC offices adverse to the interest of truthful discovery .
In addition to the institutional cover-up effort ; it would be worth noting that current DOJ and FBI officials , who have been identified as holding corrupt motives , are still being positioned at key offices .
An example is FBI Supervisory Special Agent David Archey ( Mueller Team ) being promoted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Obviously the DC institutional swamp is very deep and very corrupt .
Current and former politicians and federal officials who have engaged in corrupt behavior , or who have facilitated corrupt -potentially unlawful- surveillance activity , are still working within the system to avoid exposure .
Another recent example is former Christine Blasey-Ford hoax facilitator and Andrew McCabe attorney , Michael Bromwich , being hired by corrupt Chicago prosecutor Kim Foxx in an effort to protect herself from the outcome of the Jussie Smollett hoax in Chicago .
Why does a Cook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hire a DC-based lawyer ?
It was obvious early on the Jussie Smollett hoax was connected to several members of the Obama team and network .
Michael Bromwich is a former DOJ inspector general with ongoing direct contacts with corrupt DOJ and FBI officials inside the institutions .
Chicago State Attorney Foxx hiring Bromwich is yet another example of DC managing the cover .
Whether it ’ s the identified weaponization of NSA databases ; or whether it ’ s corrupt FBI officials covering for each-other and the DOJ ‘ declining to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s current AG Bill Barr appearing to cover for the transparently corrupt former DAG Rod Rosenstein ; or whether it ’ s the need for the DOJ to hide the scope memos until DNI Ric Grenell showed up ; one thing remains brutally obvious… Through a FOIA request Judicial Watch received Rod Rosenstein ’ s email communication around the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller [ See Here ] .
The content further confirms when Rosenstein took Mueller to the White House on May 16th , 2017 , the purpose was for Mueller @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rosenstein took Mueller to visit Jeff Sessions on May 13th , the specifics of that email likely concern keeping prior private conversations out of the discussion with Sessions .
If we insert the Rosenstein email conversation into our timeline the picture is clear .
Perhaps the most important aspect is how DAG Rosenstein took Robert Mueller to the White House on May 16th , to interview President Trump .
The decision to appoint Mueller as special counsel was pre-determined prior to the White House visit : ♦James Comey was fired at approximately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2017 .
The next morning , less than 15 hours after Comey was fired , Rosenstein contacted Robert Mueller about the special counsel appointment .
During the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller , Representative Andy Biggs noted evidence of a phone call between Mueller and Rod Rosenstein on Wednesday May 10th , 2017 , at 7:45am .
Listen carefully at the 2:26 point of the video .
From the Judicial Watch FOIA release we can see that following the 7:45am phone call Rod Rosenstein received contact info from Mueller ’ s asst ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistant at 8:13am with instructions to contact Mueller ’ s asst and set up a meeting for Friday May 12th : Marcia Murphy from the Office of the DAG , then followed through and set up a meeting for 8:00am , Friday May 12th at Main Justice , between Rosenstein and Mueller : Following that May 12th 8:00am meeting with Mueller , Rod Rosenstein then met with Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe Andrew McCabe .
– According to McCabe : Later that night ( May 12th ) , at 9:15pm Rosenstein then emails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ realize the boss and his staff do not know about our discussions.
” That email is directly related to a meeting scheduled on Saturday May 13th between Rosenstein , Mueller and Jeff Sessions ; which is confirmed in the Andy Biggs questioning .
♦Sunday May 14th – Comey transmitted copies of Memos 2 , 4 , and 6 , and a partially redacted copy of Memo 7 to Patrick Fitzgerald , who was one of Comey ’ s personal attorneys .
Fitzgerald received the email and PDF attachment from Comey at 2:27 p.m. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the IG report .
♦Monday May 15th , McCabe states he and Rosenstein conferred again about the Special Counsel approach .
McCabe : “ I brought the matter up with him again after the weekend.
” On this same day was when James Rybicki called SSA Whistleblower to notify him of Comey ’ s memos .
The memos were “ stored ” in a “ reception area “ , and in locked drawers in James Rybicki ’ s office .
♦Tuesday May 16th – Per the IG report : “ On the morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ photographs of both pages of Memo 4 with his personal cell phone .
Comey then sent both photographs , via text message , to Richman .
Back in Main Justice at 12:30pm Rod Rosenstein , Andrew McCabe , Jim Crowell and Tashina Guahar all appear to be part of this meeting .
I should note that alternate documentary evidence , gathered over the past two years , supports the content of this McCabe memo .
Including texts between Lisa Page and Peter Strzok : [ Sidebar : pay attention to the *current* redactions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ existing DOJ officials in an effort to protect Rod Rosenstein for his duplicity in : ( A ) running the Mueller sting operation at the white house on the same day ; ( B ) the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel , which was pre-determined before the Oval Office meeting . ]
While McCabe was writing this afternoon memo , still May 16th , Rod Rosenstein took Robert Mueller to the White House for a meeting in the oval office with President Trump and VP Mike Pence .
After six days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person meetings , this visit to the White House was clearly Rod Rosenstein introducing Robert Mueller to the target of the investigation .
Rosenstein already knew he was going to appoint Mueller ; and Mueller , along with the small group in the FBI , already knew Mueller was going to be appointed .
Later that night ( May 16th ) , following the Mueller visit , there was a debriefing session back at Main Justice .
This evening meeting appears to be Lisa Page , Rod Rosenstein and Andrew McCabe ; along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ♦ Wednesday May 17th , 2017 : Rod Rosenstein and Andrew McCabe go to brief the congressional “ Gang-of-Eight ” : Paul Ryan , Nancy Pelosi , Devin Nunes , Adam Schiff , Mitch McConnell , Chuck Schumer , Richard Burr and Mark Warner .
Immediately following this May 17 , 2017 , Go8 briefing , Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein notified the public of the special counsel appointment .
According to President Trump ’ s Attorney John Dowd , the White House was stunned by the decision .
[ Link ] Coincidentally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office for unrelated business when White House counsel Don McGahn came in and informed the group .
Jeff Sessions immediately offered his resignation , and Sessions ’ chief-of-staff Jody Hunt went back to the Main Justice office to ask Rosenstein what the hell was going on .

When contemplating the malign activity of Rod Rosenstein; and how angered President Trump is with former AG Jeff Sessions; it is worth remembering that Sessions requested Rod Rosenstein as his deputy, and then immediately thereafter Sessions recused himself, effectively positioning Rosenstein to run the operation against President Trump.
That’s the background context for a great interview by Gregg Jarrett where Jarrett walks through the timeline of events with former HPSCI Chairman Devin Nunes. At the 5:30 point of the interview, Nunes identifies Rosenstein as part of the coup attempt and blasts him for how Rosenstein structured the fraudulent scope memos.
Nunes says his investigation is now looking at the part of the effort where Robert Mueller’s investigation was used as part of the initiating effort to remove President Trump. With the focus on the Mueller team, Nunes is now making additional criminal referrals based on his findings. WATCH:
.
The Obama-era surveillance network is at the center of all of this.
It’s worth remembering Sharyl Attkisson has identified Rosenstein as a defendant in her lawsuit about illegal surveillance operations carried out while she was a CBS reporter.
According to the lawsuit (full pdf) Rod Rosenstein, as the U.S. Attorney for Maryland, was in charge of the Obama 2011 and 2012 operation to monitor journalists specific to Ms. Attkisson’s reporting on Fast-n-Furious and Benghazi.
Former DOJ Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein is named in the Attkisson lawsuit as the person who was in charge of the operation; and the former head of the FBI DC field office, Shawn Henry is also outlined.
Mr. Henry is the head of Crowdstrike, a contractor for the government and a politically connected data security and forensic company. Those who have followed the aspects related to the FBI use of the NSA database to illegally monitor U.S. persons; and those who followed the DNC cover story of Russia “hacking”; will be familiar with Crowdstrike.
What I find additionally interesting is the overall timeline in the bigger picture.
In the April 2017 release from FISC Judge Rosemary Collyer outlining the abuses of the FISA-702 process by FBI “contractors”, where the NSA database was being use for unlawful surveillance of U.S. persons, Collyer specifically noted the findings of her review of the period from November ’15 to May ’16 (85% non compliant rate) was likely to have been happening since 2012. [Go Deep]
The “IRS Scandal” were the DOJ was creating a list of U.S. persons for political targeting, and requested CD ROM’s of tax filings, was the lead-up to the 2012 exploitation of the NSA database. [The Secret Research Project] So there’s a larger picture of government surveillance under the Obama administration that becomes more clear.
Political spying 1.0 was actually the weaponization of the IRS. This is where the term “Secret Research Project” originated as a description from the Obama team. It involved the U.S. Department of Justice under Eric Holder and the FBI under Robert Mueller. It never made sense why Eric Holder requested over 1 million tax records via CD ROM, until overlaying the timeline of the FISA abuse:
The IRS sent the FBI “21 disks constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” The transaction occurred in October 2010 (link)
Why disks? Why send a stack of DISKS to the DOJ and FBI when there’s a pre-existing financial crimes unit within the IRS. All of the evidence within this sketchy operation came directly to the surface in early spring 2012.
This is the same time-frame when DNI James Clapper falsely denied to congress about the U.S. government -through the NSA- collecting metadata on all U.S. electronic communication. This is the same time-frame where CIA Director John Brennan was monitoring the computer networks of congressional intelligence oversight staff.
Within the Attkisson lawsuit the DOJ inspector general is identified as adverse to the interests of the case. Meaning DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz was engaged in behavior to help the institution cover-up what independent computer forensic technicians were able to discover. Employees from the IG’s office also told Ms. Attkisson they had received instructions from the DC offices adverse to the interest of truthful discovery.
In addition to the institutional cover-up effort; it would be worth noting that current DOJ and FBI officials, who have been identified as holding corrupt motives, are still being positioned at key offices. An example is FBI Supervisory Special Agent David Archey (Mueller Team) being promoted to head up the Virginia FBI field office.
Obviously the DC institutional swamp is very deep and very corrupt. Current and former politicians and federal officials who have engaged in corrupt behavior, or who have facilitated corrupt -potentially unlawful- surveillance activity, are still working within the system to avoid exposure.
Another recent example is former Christine Blasey-Ford hoax facilitator and Andrew McCabe attorney, Michael Bromwich, being hired by corrupt Chicago prosecutor Kim Foxx in an effort to protect herself from the outcome of the Jussie Smollett hoax in Chicago. Why does a Cook County, Illinois, State Attorney need to hire a DC-based lawyer?
It was obvious early on the Jussie Smollett hoax was connected to several members of the Obama team and network. Michael Bromwich is a former DOJ inspector general with ongoing direct contacts with corrupt DOJ and FBI officials inside the institutions. Chicago State Attorney Foxx hiring Bromwich is yet another example of DC managing the cover.
Whether it’s the identified weaponization of NSA databases; or whether it’s corrupt FBI officials covering for each-other and the DOJ ‘declining to prosecute’; or whether it’s current AG Bill Barr appearing to cover for the transparently corrupt former DAG Rod Rosenstein; or whether it’s the need for the DOJ to hide the scope memos until DNI Ric Grenell showed up; one thing remains brutally obvious…
…This entire surveillance network hits on the epicenter of DC’s corrupt interests.
Through a FOIA request Judicial Watch received Rod Rosenstein’s email communication around the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller [See Here]. The content further confirms when Rosenstein took Mueller to the White House on May 16th, 2017, the purpose was for Mueller to preview his target, President Trump.
Rosenstein took Mueller to visit Jeff Sessions on May 13th, the specifics of that email likely concern keeping prior private conversations out of the discussion with Sessions.
(Source pdf)
If we insert the Rosenstein email conversation into our timeline the picture is clear.
Perhaps the most important aspect is how DAG Rosenstein took Robert Mueller to the White House on May 16th, to interview President Trump. The decision to appoint Mueller as special counsel was pre-determined prior to the White House visit:
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♦James Comey was fired at approximately 5:00pm EST on Tuesday May 9th, 2017. The next morning, less than 15 hours after Comey was fired, Rosenstein contacted Robert Mueller about the special counsel appointment.
During the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller, Representative Andy Biggs noted evidence of a phone call between Mueller and Rod Rosenstein on Wednesday May 10th, 2017, at 7:45am. Listen carefully at the 2:26 point of the video.
.
From the Judicial Watch FOIA release we can see that following the 7:45am phone call Rod Rosenstein received contact info from Mueller’s asst (8:09am), and Rosenstein emailed his assistant at 8:13am with instructions to contact Mueller’s asst and set up a meeting for Friday May 12th:
Marcia Murphy from the Office of the DAG, then followed through and set up a meeting for 8:00am, Friday May 12th at Main Justice, between Rosenstein and Mueller:
Following that May 12th 8:00am meeting with Mueller, Rod Rosenstein then met with Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe Andrew McCabe. – According to McCabe:
… “[Rosenstein] asked for my thoughts about whether we needed a special counsel to oversee the Russia case. I said I thought it would help the investigation’s credibility. Later that day, I went to see Rosenstein again. This is the gist of what I said: I feel strongly that the investigation would be best served by having a special counsel.” (link)
Later that night (May 12th), at 9:15pm Rosenstein then emails Robert Mueller: “I assume you realize the boss and his staff do not know about our discussions.”
That email is directly related to a meeting scheduled on Saturday May 13th between Rosenstein, Mueller and Jeff Sessions; which is confirmed in the Andy Biggs questioning.
♦Sunday May 14th – Comey transmitted copies of Memos 2, 4, and 6, and a partially redacted copy of Memo 7 to Patrick Fitzgerald, who was one of Comey’s personal attorneys. Fitzgerald received the email and PDF attachment from Comey at 2:27 p.m. on May 14, 2017, per the IG report.
♦Monday May 15th, McCabe states he and Rosenstein conferred again about the Special Counsel approach. McCabe: “I brought the matter up with him again after the weekend.”
On this same day was when James Rybicki called SSA Whistleblower to notify him of Comey’s memos. The memos were “stored” in a “reception area“, and in locked drawers in James Rybicki’s office.
♦Tuesday May 16th – Per the IG report: “On the morning of May 16, Comey took digital photographs of both pages of Memo 4 with his personal cell phone. Comey then sent both photographs, via text message, to Richman.
Back in Main Justice at 12:30pm Rod Rosenstein, Andrew McCabe, Jim Crowell and Tashina Guahar all appear to be part of this meeting. I should note that alternate documentary evidence, gathered over the past two years, supports the content of this McCabe memo. Including texts between Lisa Page and Peter Strzok:
[Sidebar: pay attention to the *current* redactions; they appear to be placed by existing DOJ officials in an effort to protect Rod Rosenstein for his duplicity in: (A) running the Mueller sting operation at the white house on the same day; (B) the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel, which was pre-determined before the Oval Office meeting.]
While McCabe was writing this afternoon memo, still May 16th, Rod Rosenstein took Robert Mueller to the White House for a meeting in the oval office with President Trump and VP Mike Pence.
After six days of phone calls, emails and in person meetings, this visit to the White House was clearly Rod Rosenstein introducing Robert Mueller to the target of the investigation. Rosenstein already knew he was going to appoint Mueller; and Mueller, along with the small group in the FBI, already knew Mueller was going to be appointed.
Later that night (May 16th), following the Mueller visit, there was a debriefing session back at Main Justice. This evening meeting appears to be Lisa Page, Rod Rosenstein and Andrew McCabe; along with Tashina Gauhar again taking notes.
♦ Wednesday May 17th, 2017: Rod Rosenstein and Andrew McCabe go to brief the congressional “Gang-of-Eight”: Paul Ryan, Nancy Pelosi, Devin Nunes, Adam Schiff, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Richard Burr and Mark Warner.
… […] “On the afternoon of May 17, Rosenstein and I sat at the end of a long conference table in a secure room in the basement of the Capitol. We were there to brief the so-called Gang of Eight—the majority and minority leaders of the House and Senate and the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. Rosenstein had, I knew, made a decision to appoint a special counsel in the Russia case.” […] “After reminding the committee of how the investigation began, I told them of additional steps we had taken. Then Rod took over and announced that he had appointed a special counsel to pursue the Russia investigation, and that the special counsel was Robert Mueller.” (link)
Immediately following this May 17, 2017, Go8 briefing, Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein notified the public of the special counsel appointment.
According to President Trump’s Attorney John Dowd, the White House was stunned by the decision. [Link] Coincidentally, AG Jeff Sessions was in the oval office for unrelated business when White House counsel Don McGahn came in and informed the group.
Jeff Sessions immediately offered his resignation, and Sessions’ chief-of-staff Jody Hunt went back to the Main Justice office to ask Rosenstein what the hell was going on.
Resources/Citations:
FOIA Info – McCabe Memos
FOIA Info – Archey Declarations
Timeline


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--Does anyone have a legitimate long-term bull case here?

Since we ’ re trading fairly close to ATHs now , I feel like it ’ s an appropriate time to ask this question .
Does anyone here have a legitimate case for why parking my money in equities at these current prices is a good long-term value investment ?
( no meme answers please ) I realize that the Fed , FOMO , and various other factors may cause people to feel obligated to buy into equities , but those factors don ’ t increase the underlying value of the stocks in question .
Everywhere I look , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depressed earnings for a good period of time .
The main reason I see people are buying stocks is that they ’ re looking for returns created by the expectation that other people will pay more down the line .
Nowhere do I see people projecting great earnings growth and a favorable environment given the now ( more ) massive amount of debt we have to service .
P/E ratios have expanded .
With more debt , the risks of stocks in general have also increased ( liquidity =/= solvency ) .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just a little and markets freaked out .
It feels like our economy can no longer handle higher rates of any sort .
In my book , that ’ s a HUGE warning sign , particularly given that we ’ re already at 0 % .
Sitting in cash , I realize I missed out on the returns of the recent FOMO .
But I can ’ t help that the whole equities market is just one massive bomb waiting to blow up , if not now then sometime down the line in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any of you convince me that it ’ s a good idea for me to buy in right now and be able to sleep well for the next couple of years ?

by Blizzgrarg
Since we’re trading fairly close to ATHs now, I feel like it’s an appropriate time to ask this question. Does anyone here have a legitimate case for why parking my money in equities at these current prices is a good long-term value investment? (no meme answers please)
I realize that the Fed, FOMO, and various other factors may cause people to feel obligated to buy into equities, but those factors don’t increase the underlying value of the stocks in question. Everywhere I look, I still see companies going bankrupt or projecting depressed earnings for a good period of time. The main reason I see people are buying stocks is that they’re looking for returns created by the expectation that other people will pay more down the line.
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Nowhere do I see people projecting great earnings growth and a favorable environment given the now (more) massive amount of debt we have to service. P/E ratios have expanded. With more debt, the risks of stocks in general have also increased (liquidity =/= solvency). The Fed tried to raise rates last year just a little and markets freaked out. It feels like our economy can no longer handle higher rates of any sort. In my book, that’s a HUGE warning sign, particularly given that we’re already at 0%.
Sitting in cash, I realize I missed out on the returns of the recent FOMO. But I can’t help that the whole equities market is just one massive bomb waiting to blow up, if not now then sometime down the line in the near future.
So, can any of you convince me that it’s a good idea for me to buy in right now and be able to sleep well for the next couple of years?


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--Viktor Shokin: Biden outraged we seized Burisma assets

Will be quite fun if this ACTUALLY is a habbening .
Ukraine giving a GUILTY verdict will be AMAZING !

Will be quite fun if this ACTUALLY is a habbening. Ukraine giving a GUILTY verdict will be AMAZING!
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-26--You Went Full Karen, Karyn. Never Go Full Karen, Karyn.

Massachusetts Lt .
Governor Karyn Polito Hosts Dozens Of Friends At $ 1.5 Million Lakefront Shrewsbury Mansion Despite Social Distancing @ @ @ @ @ Lt .
Governor Karyn Polito recently reminded Massachusetts residents that they should stay at home @ @ @ @ @ out to pick up “ essentials , ” and urged citizens to adhere to social @ @ @ @ @ Governor Charlie Baker on Friday urged people not to get together in groups for barbecues @ @ @ @ @ However , it appears as if Polito is not heeding her own advice .
Sources @ @ @ @ @ News that the Lt .
Governor had a party at her $ 1.5 million home @ @ @ @ @ According to the source there were over a dozen cars parked at the lakefront property @ @ @ @ @ one point.
” Rules are for the little people .

Massachusetts Lt. Governor Karyn Polito Hosts Dozens Of Friends At $1.5 Million Lakefront Shrewsbury Mansion Despite Social Distancing And Mask Orders. “Lt. Governor Karyn Polito recently reminded Massachusetts residents that they should stay at home unless they need to go out to pick up “essentials,” and urged citizens to adhere to social distancing guidelines. Likewise, Governor Charlie Baker on Friday urged people not to get together in groups for barbecues this memorial day weekend. However, it appears as if Polito is not heeding her own advice. Sources are reporting to TB Daily News that the Lt. Governor had a party at her $1.5 million home in Shrewsbury on Saturday. According to the source there were over a dozen cars parked at the lakefront property at 2 Tatassit Circle at one point.”
Rules are for the little people.
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h/t GR