investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--Recession, Depression or Something Else?

“ The bank is something more than men , I tell you .
It ’ s the monster .
Men made it , but they can ’ t control it.
” –John Steinbeck , The Grapes of Wrath “ The Great Depression , like other periods of severe unemployment , was produced by government mismanagement rather than any inherent instability of the private economy.
” –Milton Friedman There have been 47 recessions in the US since its founding , which at best is an estimate since we didn ’ t keep complete data such as unemployment and GDP until after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 official recessions , make that 13 if you count what I believe is the current one which began this year .
The average duration of a recession ( typically described as two consecutive contractions in quarterly GDP growth ) has averaged 10 months .
The recent exception was the Great Recession of 2007-2009 which lasted 18 months in its entirety .
Since the Great War , most recessions were brought on by a Fed rate tightening cycle and an oil shock as shown in the graph below ( recessions noted by red @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business cycle , as money and credit expand in the economy , a surge in inflation eventually followed , prompting the Fed to raise interest rates in an effort to cool down the economy and control inflation .
This typically led to a recession .
This rinse and repeat cycle accompanied every recession and recovery since WWII .
Beginning in the 1970s , as shown in the debt graph from the St. Louis Fed , debt began to expand in every economic cycle .
Unlike the past , it seldom retreated and expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the turn of this new century , debt expansion accelerated as interest rates fell to levels never seen before in history .
The monetary authorities attempted to ease the debt burden and encourage the use of credit by making the cost of credit less expensive to acquire .
Greenspan brought the federal funds rate down to 1 % and kept it there for four years .
When the Fed began to raise interest rates to cool down the economy in an effort to control inflation , it did so incrementally in quarter-point increments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plateaued in 2007 , just before the recession began in December of that year .
Then in a series of rate reductions first under Greenspan , then Bernanke , it was reduced to zero where it remained for 7 years .
Beginning with Yellen and then Powell , the federal funds rate was slowly raised to 2.5 % before quickly reverting back to zero in just a few quick strokes .
It ’ s likely to remain there for years given we find ourselves in another recession , if not mini-depression , depending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down and businesses and consumers remain quarantined .
This recession and possible depression are unlike anything we have experienced before .
It was not Fed-induced , nor was it preceded by an oil shock as happened in 2007-2008 .
In fact , oil prices were falling below the cost of production leading to recessionary conditions in oil-producing states like Texas .
The Fed was in a rate-cutting mode before the outbreak of the pandemic with the unemployment rate at multi-decade lows and the economy growing at a moderate rate of 2 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is government-induced as non-essential businesses remain closed in much of the country ; travel and events have been canceled while millions of employees are either working from home or potentially without jobs .
With fewer cars on the road and planes in the air , we ’ ve seen an astonishing reduction in energy demand globally by an estimated 20 million barrels per day .
State shutdowns have led to at least a quarter of the economy now offline .
On March 3rd , Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. added $ 2 billion to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of confidence by the board and top executives of the company .
Three weeks later , the hotel company would reduce the business down to its core , furloughing employees , cutting expenses , slashing capital expenditures , and suspending its dividend and buyback program .
It is hard to believe in late February the stock markets were at record levels , the unemployment rate was at 3.5 % , wages were rising , and the economy was growing .
Nothing in our economic history has seen an economy shut down this quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1926 and 2017 , there were 8 bear markets ranging in length from six months to 2.8 years and in severity from a drop of 22 % to as much as 88 % .
This one happened rapidly with the Dow losing 38 % from peak to trough between February 12th and March 23rd .
Then , it bounced out of bear market territory just as quickly , rising 21 % in just three days .
How long the economy remains shut down and people remain quarantined will determine the severity of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will take to recover thereafter .
The economic projections vary all over the place .
Jamie Dimon , CEO of JPMorgan is calling it “ a bad recession.
” Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen told CNBC that the real unemployment rate could be far higher with the economy possibly declining by 30 % in the second quarter .
As a point of reference , during the Great Depression , unemployment rose to 24.9 % , the economy contracted by 25 % , and prices fell by 30 % .
All of this took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is talking about the economy contracting by 30 % in a single quarter .
Fed Governor Bullard has suggested that the unemployment rate could hit 30 % the longer the economy is shut down .
The truth of the matter is that nobody knows as we have not found ourselves in this situation for more than a hundred years since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 .
The problem lies in the pandemic itself , how quickly it plateaus and burns itself out , or , worse , returns .
There is also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ response to the pandemic .
That said , we are shortly reaching the point where the cure is worse than the disease .
Imagine the media headline : The operation was successful but the patient died .
The issue with economic or market models is they rely on linear data .
In terms of this virus , we simply don ’ t have enough inputs to model it correctly .
Trends in place are expected to remain in place .
If yesterday was bad , tomorrow is sure to be just as bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , tomorrow is sure to be a good one as well .
Sentiment fluctuates with trends in place and remains so until something changes .
The real issue is uncertainty and there is nothing more that businesses or investors fear more than the unknown or the uncertainty around that unknown .
As Greg Ip recently pointed out succinctly in the WSJ , “ Today , there are at least four distinct sources of uncertainty : the severity and spread of the pandemic ; second , the breadth and duration of social distancing measures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact of those measures ; and fourth , the policy response.
” To these four I will add a fifth : the political fallout .
As Murray Rothbard wrote in his book “ America ’ s Great Depression , ” what should have been a recession was turned into a Great Depression as a result of government policy .
Rothbard wrote in 1963 , “ While it is theoretically true that deficits financed by the sale of bonds to the public are not inflationary , it is also true that the huge deficits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the Fed to monetize the debt ; and ( b ) cripple private investment by crowding out private savings and channeling them to unproductive and wasteful government boondoggles which will impose higher taxes on future generations.
” 1 We see this on display now in government policy as Modern Monetary Theory ( MMT ) provides the framework and justification for larger deficits and debt monetization .
Conventional economic theory acknowledges that business cycles do exist but has yet to figure out their cause or how to fully explain them .
The greatest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow an economic hole so big we are unable to dig our way out unless by the helping hand of big government .
To quote Rothbard again : “ If the modern array of monetary-fiscal management and stabilizers can not save capitalism from another severe depression , this large group will turn to socialism as the final answer .
To them ( the socialists ) another depression would be the final proof that even a reformed and enlightened capitalism can not prosper.
” 2 This very debate is at issue in this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is impacting every form of government from a tribal society , a monarchy , dictatorships , a capitalistic society , to socialistic and communistic governments .
To lay the blame for America ’ s economic loss due to the coronavirus at the feet of American capitalism is to advance an illegitimate , misleading question .
The central question is not which form of government is most at fault for the present crisis , but rather which system of government will be most effective in bringing about the quickest , and most thorough restoration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the pandemic .
In the simplest of terms , the choice will be between a centralized , state-run economy operating through a bureaucracy or a system that relies upon innovation , entrepreneurialism , competition , and free markets .
Fortunately , we have the benefit of a historical perspective in wagering on the outcome .
I try to remain apolitical .
I do not have the luxury of allowing my political beliefs to improperly influence my investment decision making .
Rather , I must view the political outcomes and weigh them in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the investment markets that follow .
Now to the very issues at hand : I have spoken about the number of programs the Fed has put in place , and the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package that was passed is the first of many more to follow .
The deficits are exploding , and in the not too distant future will be approaching $ 30 trillion in total US debt .
At some point , due to the double whammy of massive spending and a loss of revenues from economic contraction , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deficits far into this decade which , I believe , will ultimately lead to a devaluation of the US dollar .
However , this is only part of the story for , as a country , the pandemic will forever change us and how we act socially and economically .
The pandemic is accelerating trends already in place before the pandemic ever surfaced .
I mentioned that supply change disruption will change the manufacturing supply chain .
China will emerge as a major loser as no company will want to find itself as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for supplies or intermediate manufactured goods .
This is no more important than when it comes to drugs and vaccines which mainly come from China .
Retail will change forever with online retailing becoming the dominant form of shopping .
The longer this shutdown and quarantine last , the more consumer behavior will change .
More and more consumers will get used to staying at home and buying online .
More importantly , they may adapt to buying less .
If frugality and savings become the new norm , it is safe to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will disappear as we have more of them than any country on the planet .
The big box stores will prosper and get even bigger .
They are the ones doing the hiring while other retailers furlough or lay off workers .
Many of today ’ s marque department stores may not survive or , if they do , will be reduced in size and number .
Socialization will also be different whether it is sports , rock concerts , restaurants , bars or movie theaters .
How soon will you feel comfortable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spilling his beer and drooling on your arm ?
Think of being inside a movie theater where the guy next to you sneezes in your popcorn or coke .
Or imagine your own ostracization if you begin to sneeze or experience a coughing spasm yourself .
To quote Bill Gates who predicted the danger of a pandemic in a TED Talk in 2015 ( while commenting on mass gatherings ) , “ Until you ’ re widely vaccinated , those may not come back at all.
” Major events have been canceled deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer a given that sports teams will play this year .
Gavin Newsom , California ’ s governor , said last Saturday that he doesn ’ t believe his state ’ s three football teams will be playing in front of fans come September .
The Olympics have been postponed until next summer , while Wimbledon will be skipped in 2020 .
Life will go on and eventually return to normal but we will forever be changed by today ’ s events in the same way the Great Depression and WWII shaped the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans .
The good news is that this virus will be beaten , and things will return to normal over time .
We have the technology , and medical know-how and capabilities to win this invisible war .
“ Americans will always do the right thing , after first exhausting all possible alternatives.
” ( Attributed to Winston Churchill ) This weekend I made my weekly pilgrimage to Costco .
As I was driving on empty streets with only an occasional car passing me by , I drove by empty shop after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ darkened windows reading , “ Closed for Business ” .
I ’ m not so sure of how many will reopen the longer the quarantine goes on .
The corner gas station was still open along with the local CVS .
I thought as I drove , I was going to the one place everyone else was allowed to go to which was the grocery store .
What were the chances I would come into contact with everyone who has the virus and not knowing where it would also be going to ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mask , latex gloves covered over by a pair of copper-infused gloves .
I was going into a war zone and felt I was prepared as best as I could be .
I am not a doctor or epidemiologist , but I was prepared for any attack that would come my way .
When I pulled into the Costco parking lot , I was struck by a scene I have never seen in my life .
I felt I was on the movie set of the film “ Outbreak.
” The upfront parking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off by a line of shopping carts that prevented anyone from driving around each parking aisle .
Orange parking cones had been set out to form lines for customers to stand in line and in order to get inside the store .
Employees stood abreast to make sure anyone standing in line kept up with social distancing protocol .
I was lucky .
I am over 60 so I got to go to another line .
I grabbed a freshly sanitized cart and ventured inside with my honey-do-shopping-list in hand .
The lines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making social distancing possible without any effort of bumping into another human being .
It was still strange to see others dressed in garb similar to myself .
I was able to get just about everything on my list with the exception of toilet paper .
Why is it always the toilet paper ?
Will someone explain the obsession of hoarding toilet paper , an item more appropriate to a gastrointestinal virus than a respiratory one ?
I asked a store employee when paper products might become available .
He said at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ products available were computer paper .
I told him don ’ t tell anyone as that could become in short supply as a substitute .
He did inform me that trucks get to the store early and they open the store for a brief period at 6:30 AM .
But I would need to get in line as people starting gathering at 5:00 AM .
The toilet paper sells out within the first half-hour .
It reminded me of the gas lines during my college days when I waited until midnight when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep my gas tank filled and get to work and school .
I thank God for the management of Costco and the employees that do their best to keep their customers safe .
It ’ s the beauty of a private enterprise system .
Until this clears , stay safe , wear a mask if possible when going out in public and love the ones closest to you .
To find out more about Financial Sense® Wealth Management or for a complimentary risk assessment of your portfolio , click here to contact us @

by FS
“The bank is something more than men, I tell you. It’s the monster. Men made it, but they can’t control it.” –John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath
“The Great Depression, like other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than any inherent instability of the private economy.” –Milton Friedman
There have been 47 recessions in the US since its founding, which at best is an estimate since we didn’t keep complete data such as unemployment and GDP until after WWII. Since WWII there have been 12 official recessions, make that 13 if you count what I believe is the current one which began this year. The average duration of a recession (typically described as two consecutive contractions in quarterly GDP growth) has averaged 10 months. The recent exception was the Great Recession of 2007-2009 which lasted 18 months in its entirety.
Since the Great War, most recessions were brought on by a Fed rate tightening cycle and an oil shock as shown in the graph below (recessions noted by red vertical bars).
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management. Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
In a typical business cycle, as money and credit expand in the economy, a surge in inflation eventually followed, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates in an effort to cool down the economy and control inflation. This typically led to a recession.
This rinse and repeat cycle accompanied every recession and recovery since WWII. Beginning in the 1970s, as shown in the debt graph from the St. Louis Fed, debt began to expand in every economic cycle. Unlike the past, it seldom retreated and expanded with each new economic recovery. At the turn of this new century, debt expansion accelerated as interest rates fell to levels never seen before in history. The monetary authorities attempted to ease the debt burden and encourage the use of credit by making the cost of credit less expensive to acquire.
Greenspan brought the federal funds rate down to 1% and kept it there for four years. When the Fed began to raise interest rates to cool down the economy in an effort to control inflation, it did so incrementally in quarter-point increments over a three year period when it plateaued in 2007, just before the recession began in December of that year. Then in a series of rate reductions first under Greenspan, then Bernanke, it was reduced to zero where it remained for 7 years. Beginning with Yellen and then Powell, the federal funds rate was slowly raised to 2.5% before quickly reverting back to zero in just a few quick strokes. It’s likely to remain there for years given we find ourselves in another recession, if not mini-depression, depending on how long the economy remains shut down and businesses and consumers remain quarantined.
This recession and possible depression are unlike anything we have experienced before. It was not Fed-induced, nor was it preceded by an oil shock as happened in 2007-2008. In fact, oil prices were falling below the cost of production leading to recessionary conditions in oil-producing states like Texas. The Fed was in a rate-cutting mode before the outbreak of the pandemic with the unemployment rate at multi-decade lows and the economy growing at a moderate rate of 2%.
This recession, or possibly depression, is government-induced as non-essential businesses remain closed in much of the country; travel and events have been canceled while millions of employees are either working from home or potentially without jobs. With fewer cars on the road and planes in the air, we’ve seen an astonishing reduction in energy demand globally by an estimated 20 million barrels per day. State shutdowns have led to at least a quarter of the economy now offline. On March 3rd, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. added $2 billion to its stock buyback program reflecting a vote of confidence by the board and top executives of the company. Three weeks later, the hotel company would reduce the business down to its core, furloughing employees, cutting expenses, slashing capital expenditures, and suspending its dividend and buyback program.
It is hard to believe in late February the stock markets were at record levels, the unemployment rate was at 3.5%, wages were rising, and the economy was growing. Nothing in our economic history has seen an economy shut down this quickly or markets fall this rapidly. Between 1926 and 2017, there were 8 bear markets ranging in length from six months to 2.8 years and in severity from a drop of 22% to as much as 88%. This one happened rapidly with the Dow losing 38% from peak to trough between February 12th and March 23rd. Then, it bounced out of bear market territory just as quickly, rising 21% in just three days.
How long the economy remains shut down and people remain quarantined will determine the severity of the mini-depression now underway and how long it will take to recover thereafter. The economic projections vary all over the place. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan is calling it “a bad recession.” Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen told CNBC that the real unemployment rate could be far higher with the economy possibly declining by 30% in the second quarter. As a point of reference, during the Great Depression, unemployment rose to 24.9%, the economy contracted by 25%, and prices fell by 30%. All of this took place between 1929 and 1933. Yellen is talking about the economy contracting by 30% in a single quarter. Fed Governor Bullard has suggested that the unemployment rate could hit 30% the longer the economy is shut down.
The truth of the matter is that nobody knows as we have not found ourselves in this situation for more than a hundred years since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. The problem lies in the pandemic itself, how quickly it plateaus and burns itself out, or, worse, returns. There is also the unknown of government policy and its response to the pandemic. That said, we are shortly reaching the point where the cure is worse than the disease. Imagine the media headline: The operation was successful but the patient died.
The issue with economic or market models is they rely on linear data. In terms of this virus, we simply don’t have enough inputs to model it correctly. Trends in place are expected to remain in place. If yesterday was bad, tomorrow is sure to be just as bad or if yesterday is a good day, tomorrow is sure to be a good one as well. Sentiment fluctuates with trends in place and remains so until something changes.
The real issue is uncertainty and there is nothing more that businesses or investors fear more than the unknown or the uncertainty around that unknown. As Greg Ip recently pointed out succinctly in the WSJ, “Today, there are at least four distinct sources of uncertainty: the severity and spread of the pandemic; second, the breadth and duration of social distancing measures; third, the economic and financial impact of those measures; and fourth, the policy response.” To these four I will add a fifth: the political fallout.
As Murray Rothbard wrote in his book “America’s Great Depression,” what should have been a recession was turned into a Great Depression as a result of government policy. Rothbard wrote in 1963, “While it is theoretically true that deficits financed by the sale of bonds to the public are not inflationary, it is also true that the huge deficits (a) exert enormous political pressure on the Fed to monetize the debt; and (b) cripple private investment by crowding out private savings and channeling them to unproductive and wasteful government boondoggles which will impose higher taxes on future generations.”1
We see this on display now in government policy as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) provides the framework and justification for larger deficits and debt monetization. Conventional economic theory acknowledges that business cycles do exist but has yet to figure out their cause or how to fully explain them. The greatest mistake we can presently make is to blow an economic hole so big we are unable to dig our way out unless by the helping hand of big government. To quote Rothbard again: “If the modern array of monetary-fiscal management and stabilizers cannot save capitalism from another severe depression, this large group will turn to socialism as the final answer. To them (the socialists) another depression would be the final proof that even a reformed and enlightened capitalism cannot prosper.”2 This very debate is at issue in this year’s presidential election.
This pandemic is impacting every form of government from a tribal society, a monarchy, dictatorships, a capitalistic society, to socialistic and communistic governments. To lay the blame for America’s economic loss due to the coronavirus at the feet of American capitalism is to advance an illegitimate, misleading question.
The central question is not which form of government is most at fault for the present crisis, but rather which system of government will be most effective in bringing about the quickest, and most thorough restoration of the economic prosperity we were experiencing before the pandemic. In the simplest of terms, the choice will be between a centralized, state-run economy operating through a bureaucracy or a system that relies upon innovation, entrepreneurialism, competition, and free markets. Fortunately, we have the benefit of a historical perspective in wagering on the outcome.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I try to remain apolitical. I do not have the luxury of allowing my political beliefs to improperly influence my investment decision making. Rather, I must view the political outcomes and weigh them in terms of their impact upon the economy and the investment markets that follow.
Now to the very issues at hand: I have spoken about the number of programs the Fed has put in place, and the $2.2 trillion stimulus package that was passed is the first of many more to follow. The deficits are exploding, and in the not too distant future will be approaching $30 trillion in total US debt. At some point, due to the double whammy of massive spending and a loss of revenues from economic contraction, we are going to see multi-trillion dollar deficits far into this decade which, I believe, will ultimately lead to a devaluation of the US dollar.
However, this is only part of the story for, as a country, the pandemic will forever change us and how we act socially and economically. The pandemic is accelerating trends already in place before the pandemic ever surfaced. I mentioned that supply change disruption will change the manufacturing supply chain. China will emerge as a major loser as no company will want to find itself as they do today dependent on one country for supplies or intermediate manufactured goods. This is no more important than when it comes to drugs and vaccines which mainly come from China. Retail will change forever with online retailing becoming the dominant form of shopping. The longer this shutdown and quarantine last, the more consumer behavior will change. More and more consumers will get used to staying at home and buying online. More importantly, they may adapt to buying less. If frugality and savings become the new norm, it is safe to say that many of our shopping malls will disappear as we have more of them than any country on the planet. The big box stores will prosper and get even bigger. They are the ones doing the hiring while other retailers furlough or lay off workers. Many of today’s marque department stores may not survive or, if they do, will be reduced in size and number.
Socialization will also be different whether it is sports, rock concerts, restaurants, bars or movie theaters. How soon will you feel comfortable cozying up to a raucous sports fan spilling his beer and drooling on your arm? Think of being inside a movie theater where the guy next to you sneezes in your popcorn or coke. Or imagine your own ostracization if you begin to sneeze or experience a coughing spasm yourself.
To quote Bill Gates who predicted the danger of a pandemic in a TED Talk in 2015 (while commenting on mass gatherings), “Until you’re widely vaccinated, those may not come back at all.” Major events have been canceled deep into the summer. It is no longer a given that sports teams will play this year. Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, said last Saturday that he doesn’t believe his state’s three football teams will be playing in front of fans come September. The Olympics have been postponed until next summer, while Wimbledon will be skipped in 2020.
Life will go on and eventually return to normal but we will forever be changed by today’s events in the same way the Great Depression and WWII shaped the lives and behavior of a whole generation of Americans.
The good news is that this virus will be beaten, and things will return to normal over time. We have the technology, and medical know-how and capabilities to win this invisible war.
“Americans will always do the right thing, after first exhausting all possible alternatives.” (Attributed to Winston Churchill)
Side Note
This weekend I made my weekly pilgrimage to Costco. As I was driving on empty streets with only an occasional car passing me by, I drove by empty shop after empty shop with signs hanging from their darkened windows reading, “Closed for Business”. I’m not so sure of how many will reopen the longer the quarantine goes on. The corner gas station was still open along with the local CVS. I thought as I drove, I was going to the one place everyone else was allowed to go to which was the grocery store. What were the chances I would come into contact with everyone who has the virus and not knowing where it would also be going to?
I was prepared. Wearing an N-95 mask, latex gloves covered over by a pair of copper-infused gloves. I was going into a war zone and felt I was prepared as best as I could be. I am not a doctor or epidemiologist, but I was prepared for any attack that would come my way. When I pulled into the Costco parking lot, I was struck by a scene I have never seen in my life. I felt I was on the movie set of the film “Outbreak.” The upfront parking spaces and handicap zones had been cordoned off by a line of shopping carts that prevented anyone from driving around each parking aisle.
Orange parking cones had been set out to form lines for customers to stand in line and in order to get inside the store. Employees stood abreast to make sure anyone standing in line kept up with social distancing protocol.
I was lucky. I am over 60 so I got to go to another line. I grabbed a freshly sanitized cart and ventured inside with my honey-do-shopping-list in hand. The lines outside kept traffic inside to a minimum making social distancing possible without any effort of bumping into another human being. It was still strange to see others dressed in garb similar to myself.
I was able to get just about everything on my list with the exception of toilet paper. Why is it always the toilet paper? Will someone explain the obsession of hoarding toilet paper, an item more appropriate to a gastrointestinal virus than a respiratory one?
I asked a store employee when paper products might become available. He said at least several more weeks. The only paper products available were computer paper. I told him don’t tell anyone as that could become in short supply as a substitute. He did inform me that trucks get to the store early and they open the store for a brief period at 6:30 AM. But I would need to get in line as people starting gathering at 5:00 AM. The toilet paper sells out within the first half-hour. It reminded me of the gas lines during my college days when I waited until midnight when the fuel trucks would arrive so I could keep my gas tank filled and get to work and school.
I thank God for the management of Costco and the employees that do their best to keep their customers safe. It’s the beauty of a private enterprise system.
Until this clears, stay safe, wear a mask if possible when going out in public and love the ones closest to you.
Jim
1 America’s Great Depression, by Murray N. Rothbard, p xviii
2 Ibid, [xxxvi-xxxvii]
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--TUCKER CARLSON: First To Interview Roger Stone Since Gag Order Lifted – VIDEO

Roger Stone says order to report to jail is ‘ essentially a death sentence ’

Roger Stone says order to report to jail is ‘essentially a death sentence’
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h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Doug Casey: The US Is Becoming a Police State

Editor ’ s note : In yesterday ’ s Conversations With Casey , our founder , Doug Casey , revealed why he believes the coronavirus hysteria is overblown – and how the government ’ s response will ruin our economy .
Today , we continue our conversation with Doug , and hear his thoughts on the long-term social and political implications of this “ manufactured crisis ” … Daily Dispatch : Doug , yesterday we talked about the hysteria surrounding the coronavirus and what effect it will have on the economy .
Following up on that , how does that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is an election year .
Doug Casey : The political consequences of this are going to be very interesting .
Will Trump be re-elected in the midst of all of this ?
Well , if the Democrats are stupid enough to run the corrupt , senile , and clearly somewhat demented Biden , I think Trump could win .
But no guarantees in the middle of a world class crisis .
I ’ ll make a guess : the Democrats are going to exchange Biden for somebody that ’ s younger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not one of those embarrassing nobodies we saw on the stage a few months ago , though .
I think they ’ ll pick someone much more dangerous .
A terrible human being actually , maybe even worse than Hillary .
That would be Cuomo , the governor of New York .
And if he runs against Trump in the midst of a crisis in November – and the crisis will be worse , not better , come November – then we ’ re really in for some trouble .
For all I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ] his number one counselor .
Daily Dispatch : Yeah .
So , just on the political side of things – or rather , the social side of things : When this news started coming out of China , the mainstream media noted how the Chinese were painting marks on the sidewalks , and how they were telling people not to go anywhere , and they were locking them up and telling them not to go out .
At the time , the Western media was saying , “ Oh , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our people wouldn ’ t stand for it , we value our freedom too much.
” Yet , that did happen .
Not only that , but look at how quickly everyone has rolled over to this whole idea of closing down businesses and people locking themselves up at home .
Now they ’ re also cheering for it .
They ’ re snitching on their neighbors for going out to get a newspaper , or going out for a walk .
I assume none of that surprises you whatsoever , how quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Doug Casey : Not only does it not surprise me , I rather expect it .
In fact , I ’ ll go so far as to say we won ’ t be able to have this conversation in a year or two , because it would be deemed unpatriotic , or tending to diminish the public ’ s confidence in our institutions .
And of course , they have a point , because our institutions are now so weak that they rest on nothing but confidence .
Which is not a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow away like a pile of feathers in a hurricane .
Which is exactly what ’ s likely to happen .
Look at what happened to Russia as it turned into the Soviet Union , Germany as it turned into National Socialist Germany , and lots of other countries .
It ’ s pretty easy to turn a country into a police state .
Most people don ’ t want to get in trouble .
They want to keep their heads down .
Americans have gotten used to taking orders , and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , say something.
” The police , and especially the military , do what they ’ re told .
People like a strong leader – that ’ s why Trump is popular .
In fact , the worse conditions get , the more people absolutely demand a strong leader .
The US is well on the way to being a police state , and the people will want a strong leader to straighten things out , kiss everything and make it better .
But strong leaders are poison to freedom .
I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party puts up a general in 2024 , because the military is about the only institution Americans still trust .
That ’ s really scary – the Pentagon is really just a multitrillion-dollar version of the Post Office in many ways .
Western civilization has been moving downhill since 1914 , and that downtrend is going hyperbolic at this point .
I don ’ t know where it ’ s going to end except to say it ’ s going to end badly .
It ’ s not going to magically get better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rotted .
After this hysteria dies down , the US , and for that matter the world , but particularly the US , will have changed permanently , much the way it did after 9/11 .
Much for the worse .
This is much more serious than 9/11 in its social and economic implications .
And its political implications , which we will see before the year is out .
Daily Dispatch : Even the local governments didn ’ t waste any time at all in exerting their authority over things .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the thing that the mayors of “ small town America ” have been waiting for their entire lives .
They ’ ve gone from setting bus timetables and being responsible for garbage collection to suddenly having the power to tell people they can ’ t leave their homes , and if they do they ’ re going to arrest them .
Some people might say that to call this tyranny is just an overreaction .
But it does feels that way .
These people have seen an opportunity to exert maximum power and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Casey : Well , you ’ re quite correct , and there are probably two reasons for that .
First , the kind of people that get into government , whether it ’ s local or national , are the kind of people that like to control other people .
That ’ s why they want to get into government .
You don ’ t get the so-called best and brightest .
You get the worst kind of busybody , the most dangerous type of sociopath , who wants to go into government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reason number two is that even if the rare decent person gets into the government , he feels like he has to “ do something.
” Everybody now feels the government is a cornucopia , and should “ do something.
” So of course they ’ ll act .
But there ’ s nothing useful the government can do , since they don ’ t create wealth , only take wealth from some and give it to others .
The problem is the institution of government itself .
It ’ s intrinsically flawed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we solve this ; I believe it ’ s past that point .
The situation is reaching a grand climax after deteriorating for roughly 100 years .
Something I ’ ve said for a long time .
What ’ s happening now is another step towards total government control .
It never takes a step back .
There ’ s going to be even more government control in every part of the economy .
A perfect example of this was the creation of the TSA ( Transportation Security Administration ) – a creation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dysfunctional and worthless organization .
At best it ’ s a giant nuisance .
What are the chances that the TSA is ever going to be abolished , and its 70,000 bottom-of-the-barrel employees forced to go out and seek productive work ?
I ’ d say the chances are about zero at this point .
That will be equally true with any new agencies created due to the current hysteria .
Daily Dispatch : In that case , what happens the next time there ’ s another one of these viruses ?
Does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shut everything down ?
Doug Casey : They ’ ll do something to justify their existence , and convince Boobus Americanus it was necessary .
People fail to understand that government is basically and intrinsically different from any other institution in society .
Government isn ’ t based upon choice and production .
It ’ s based upon coercion .
It comes out of the barrel of a gun , as Mao said .
And the prime directive of every entity – I don ’ t care if we ’ re talking about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporation , or a state – is to survive and grow .
Government is uniquely well-positioned to survive because it ’ s the only body that can legally point a gun at anybody ’ s head .
It grows like a parasite .
There ’ s always a danger a parasite will kill its host .
The US Government was already running a deficit of over a trillion , financed by selling paper to the Fed .
The $ 2.2 trillion in the corona stimulus program is a disastrous idea .
Giving away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a short time – guarantees a gigantic amount of fraud , and even more waste .
It will totally distort the markets , and is a major step towards the destruction of the dollar .
And what ’ s left of American culture .
This is a curve that ’ s gone hyperbolic .
In other words , the rate of growth of government has turned exponential with this coronavirus event .
All we need now is something resembling World War Three to put a cherry on the cake .
Daily Dispatch : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time Doug .
Doug Casey : Thanks .
But I ’ m not going to sign off by saying anything stupid and unnecessary like “ stay safe.
” I ’ m sick of people whimpering “ stay safe , ” while they huddle , sheltering in place like whipped dogs , doing as they ’ re told during this hysteria .
But do have a good day .
Daily Dispatch : We will .
Thank you .

Via Casey Research
Editor’s note: In yesterday’s Conversations With Casey, our founder, Doug Casey, revealed why he believes the coronavirus hysteria is overblown – and how the government’s response will ruin our economy.
Today, we continue our conversation with Doug, and hear his thoughts on the long-term social and political implications of this “manufactured crisis”…
Daily Dispatch: Doug, yesterday we talked about the hysteria surrounding the coronavirus and what effect it will have on the economy. Following up on that, how does that all play out politically? After all, it is an election year.
Doug Casey: The political consequences of this are going to be very interesting. Will Trump be re-elected in the midst of all of this? Well, if the Democrats are stupid enough to run the corrupt, senile, and clearly somewhat demented Biden, I think Trump could win. But no guarantees in the middle of a world class crisis.
I’ll make a guess: the Democrats are going to exchange Biden for somebody that’s younger, smarter, and more dynamic. Not one of those embarrassing nobodies we saw on the stage a few months ago, though. I think they’ll pick someone much more dangerous. A terrible human being actually, maybe even worse than Hillary. That would be Cuomo, the governor of New York.
And if he runs against Trump in the midst of a crisis in November – and the crisis will be worse, not better, come November – then we’re really in for some trouble. For all I know, he could make AOC [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] his number one counselor.
Daily Dispatch: Yeah. So, just on the political side of things – or rather, the social side of things: When this news started coming out of China, the mainstream media noted how the Chinese were painting marks on the sidewalks, and how they were telling people not to go anywhere, and they were locking them up and telling them not to go out.
At the time, the Western media was saying, “Oh, that could never happen here, because our people wouldn’t stand for it, we value our freedom too much.” Yet, that did happen.
Not only that, but look at how quickly everyone has rolled over to this whole idea of closing down businesses and people locking themselves up at home. Now they’re also cheering for it. They’re snitching on their neighbors for going out to get a newspaper, or going out for a walk.
I assume none of that surprises you whatsoever, how quickly the population accepts that kind of thing.
Doug Casey: Not only does it not surprise me, I rather expect it.
In fact, I’ll go so far as to say we won’t be able to have this conversation in a year or two, because it would be deemed unpatriotic, or tending to diminish the public’s confidence in our institutions.
And of course, they have a point, because our institutions are now so weak that they rest on nothing but confidence. Which is not a very solid foundation, because confidence can blow away like a pile of feathers in a hurricane. Which is exactly what’s likely to happen.
Look at what happened to Russia as it turned into the Soviet Union, Germany as it turned into National Socialist Germany, and lots of other countries. It’s pretty easy to turn a country into a police state. Most people don’t want to get in trouble. They want to keep their heads down.
Americans have gotten used to taking orders, and they’re happy to “see something, say something.” The police, and especially the military, do what they’re told. People like a strong leader – that’s why Trump is popular. In fact, the worse conditions get, the more people absolutely demand a strong leader.
The US is well on the way to being a police state, and the people will want a strong leader to straighten things out, kiss everything and make it better. But strong leaders are poison to freedom. I’ll give odds that at least one party puts up a general in 2024, because the military is about the only institution Americans still trust. That’s really scary – the Pentagon is really just a multitrillion-dollar version of the Post Office in many ways.
Western civilization has been moving downhill since 1914, and that downtrend is going hyperbolic at this point. I don’t know where it’s going to end except to say it’s going to end badly. It’s not going to magically get better because the foundations of our culture have rotted. After this hysteria dies down, the US, and for that matter the world, but particularly the US, will have changed permanently, much the way it did after 9/11. Much for the worse.
This is much more serious than 9/11 in its social and economic implications. And its political implications, which we will see before the year is out.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Daily Dispatch: Even the local governments didn’t waste any time at all in exerting their authority over things. It’s almost as though this is the thing that the mayors of “small town America” have been waiting for their entire lives. They’ve gone from setting bus timetables and being responsible for garbage collection to suddenly having the power to tell people they can’t leave their homes, and if they do they’re going to arrest them.
Some people might say that to call this tyranny is just an overreaction. But it does feels that way. These people have seen an opportunity to exert maximum power and they’ve grabbed it.
Doug Casey: Well, you’re quite correct, and there are probably two reasons for that. First, the kind of people that get into government, whether it’s local or national, are the kind of people that like to control other people. That’s why they want to get into government.
You don’t get the so-called best and brightest. You get the worst kind of busybody, the most dangerous type of sociopath, who wants to go into government. That’s reason one.
Reason number two is that even if the rare decent person gets into the government, he feels like he has to “do something.” Everybody now feels the government is a cornucopia, and should “do something.” So of course they’ll act. But there’s nothing useful the government can do, since they don’t create wealth, only take wealth from some and give it to others.
The problem is the institution of government itself. It’s intrinsically flawed. I don’t know how we solve this; I believe it’s past that point. The situation is reaching a grand climax after deteriorating for roughly 100 years. Something I’ve said for a long time.
What’s happening now is another step towards total government control. It never takes a step back. There’s going to be even more government control in every part of the economy.
A perfect example of this was the creation of the TSA (Transportation Security Administration) – a creation of the last crisis – a completely dysfunctional and worthless organization. At best it’s a giant nuisance. What are the chances that the TSA is ever going to be abolished, and its 70,000 bottom-of-the-barrel employees forced to go out and seek productive work?
I’d say the chances are about zero at this point. That will be equally true with any new agencies created due to the current hysteria.
Daily Dispatch: In that case, what happens the next time there’s another one of these viruses? Does the government do the same thing? Shut everything down?
Doug Casey: They’ll do something to justify their existence, and convince Boobus Americanus it was necessary.
People fail to understand that government is basically and intrinsically different from any other institution in society. Government isn’t based upon choice and production. It’s based upon coercion. It comes out of the barrel of a gun, as Mao said. And the prime directive of every entity – I don’t care if we’re talking about an amoeba, an individual, a corporation, or a state – is to survive and grow.
Government is uniquely well-positioned to survive because it’s the only body that can legally point a gun at anybody’s head. It grows like a parasite. There’s always a danger a parasite will kill its host.
The US Government was already running a deficit of over a trillion, financed by selling paper to the Fed. The $2.2 trillion in the corona stimulus program is a disastrous idea. Giving away that kind of money – especially in a short time – guarantees a gigantic amount of fraud, and even more waste. It will totally distort the markets, and is a major step towards the destruction of the dollar. And what’s left of American culture.
This is a curve that’s gone hyperbolic. In other words, the rate of growth of government has turned exponential with this coronavirus event. All we need now is something resembling World War Three to put a cherry on the cake.
Daily Dispatch: On that note, thanks for your time Doug.
Doug Casey: Thanks. But I’m not going to sign off by saying anything stupid and unnecessary like “stay safe.” I’m sick of people whimpering “stay safe,” while they huddle, sheltering in place like whipped dogs, doing as they’re told during this hysteria.
But do have a good day.
Daily Dispatch: We will. Thank you.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Would Trump Actually Pay Oil Producers Not To Pump?

The global oil industry has been scrambling for a solution to the dramatic oil price crash and enduring global crude glut from last month .
As the novel coronavirus swept the globe over the past few months , shutting down countless industrial endeavors , the devastating economic impact tanked international oil demand and overall energy use .
When the OPEC+ leading members of Russia and Saudi Arabia began talks to determine how to respond to the faltering oil demand , the alliance quickly disintegrated , leading to an all-out oil price war and a global crude glut to the tune @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per day .
On Sunday OPEC+ decided to try to reduce the glut and thereby bolster oil prices with historic production cuts .
On Monday the coalition led by Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they will slash production by a whopping 9.7 million barrels in May and June .
The United States , for its part , has been typically polarized as to how to respond to the crisis in global oil markets .
Before the Sunday announcement from OPEC+ Trump had been entertaining oil lobbyists from two different camps , arguing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tariffs on Moscow and Riyadh , and the President had made public statements that he planned to impose “ very substantial ” tariffs on oil imports to the United States .
Now , the Trump administration has changed its tune and is considering discouraging U.S. oil producers to curb their own oil extraction .
“ The Trump administration is contemplating paying oil companies to leave their product in the ground , a measure that could help boost the struggling industry while the market has been crushed by an oversupply of crude , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to reporting from multiple outlets , the Department of Energy ( DOE ) is drafting a plan that would pay companies to leave as much as 365 million barrels untapped by considering it part of the nation ’ s emergency stockpile.
” This news has sent shockwaves through the domestic energy sector , which has never seen this kind of unprecedented policy from the federal government .
This initiative is still in a very tentative phase , however , as this plan “ would be unprecedented and likely to face resistance from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thwart a $ 3 billion request to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ( SPR ) outright.
” This has not stopped President Trump , however , from speaking publicly and assertively about the idea , saying that “ the government should stock up on oil while prices are at historic lows , and the DOE plan appears to already have some support from Republicans , ” as paraphrased by The Hill .
The DOE has not yet sent a formal proposal to Congress , but existing legislation dictates that “ federal law allows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion barrels of oil for emergencies , but it doesn ’ t stipulate where it must be stored.
” To this point , President Trump has repeatedly spoken about the possibility for oil companies to store crude oil on private tanker ships , and some crude is already being stowed in rail cars .
Even if they go through , however , these measures will do little to put a dent in the current crude glut .
What ’ s more , the considerable more austere measures taken by OPEC+ over the weekend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market either .
“ Even with market forces expected to drive U.S. oil companies to drop production by 500,000 barrels a day , a little less than 5 percent of average production , ” reports The Hill , “ the market is still facing a glut of oil as demand for fuel has declined 30 percent in the midst of the coronavirus.
” Energy demand will not bounce back in the immediate future , either , as the global economic shutdown persists , and some countries are only now beginning widespread shelter-in-place @ @

By Haley Zaremba
The global oil industry has been scrambling for a solution to the dramatic oil price crash and enduring global crude glut from last month. As the novel coronavirus swept the globe over the past few months, shutting down countless industrial endeavors, the devastating economic impact tanked international oil demand and overall energy use. When the OPEC+ leading members of Russia and Saudi Arabia began talks to determine how to respond to the faltering oil demand, the alliance quickly disintegrated, leading to an all-out oil price war and a global crude glut to the tune of about 10 million barrels of oversupply per day.
On Sunday OPEC+ decided to try to reduce the glut and thereby bolster oil prices with historic production cuts. On Monday the coalition led by Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they will slash production by a whopping 9.7 million barrels in May and June. The United States, for its part, has been typically polarized as to how to respond to the crisis in global oil markets.
Before the Sunday announcement from OPEC+ Trump had been entertaining oil lobbyists from two different camps, arguing over whether the United States should impose tariffs on Moscow and Riyadh, and the President had made public statements that he planned to impose “very substantial” tariffs on oil imports to the United States.
Now, the Trump administration has changed its tune and is considering discouraging U.S. oil producers to curb their own oil extraction. “The Trump administration is contemplating paying oil companies to leave their product in the ground, a measure that could help boost the struggling industry while the market has been crushed by an oversupply of crude,” The Hill reported this week. “According to reporting from multiple outlets, the Department of Energy (DOE) is drafting a plan that would pay companies to leave as much as 365 million barrels untapped by considering it part of the nation’s emergency stockpile.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This news has sent shockwaves through the domestic energy sector, which has never seen this kind of unprecedented policy from the federal government. This initiative is still in a very tentative phase, however, as this plan “would be unprecedented and likely to face resistance from Congress, where Democrats were able to thwart a $3 billion request to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) outright.”
This has not stopped President Trump, however, from speaking publicly and assertively about the idea, saying that “the government should stock up on oil while prices are at historic lows, and the DOE plan appears to already have some support from Republicans,” as paraphrased by The Hill. The DOE has not yet sent a formal proposal to Congress, but existing legislation dictates that “federal law allows DOE to set aside up to 1 billion barrels of oil for emergencies, but it doesn’t stipulate where it must be stored.” To this point, President Trump has repeatedly spoken about the possibility for oil companies to store crude oil on private tanker ships, and some crude is already being stowed in rail cars.
Even if they go through, however, these measures will do little to put a dent in the current crude glut. What’s more, the considerable more austere measures taken by OPEC+ over the weekend have so far done little to correct the market either. “Even with market forces expected to drive U.S. oil companies to drop production by 500,000 barrels a day, a little less than 5 percent of average production,” reports The Hill, “the market is still facing a glut of oil as demand for fuel has declined 30 percent in the midst of the coronavirus.”
Energy demand will not bounce back in the immediate future, either, as the global economic shutdown persists, and some countries are only now beginning widespread shelter-in-place measures.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--The Best Joke I’ve Heard This Weekend. Thanks For The Laugh!

● Shot : “ In terms of the happy talk we ’ ve had on this front from the federal @ @ @ @ @ sign that the Navy hospital ships that the president made such a big deal of @ @ @ @ @ Mercy , there ’ s no sign that they ` ll be anywhere on-site helping @ @ @ @ @ for weeks yet .
The president said when he announced that those ships would be @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 epidemic .
He said one of those ships would be operational in New York @ @ @ @ @ That ` s nonsense .
It will not be there next week.
” ● Chaser @ @ @ @ @ in L.A. on Friday , March 27 , just one week after Maddow said the @ @ @ @ @ arrive .
The USNS Comfort arrived in New York City ’ s harbor on Monday @ @ @ @ @ “ Rachel Maddow Calls The Timely Arrival Of Navy Hospital Ships ‘ Nonsense , ’ @ @ @ @ @

UM:
If you're not watching @maddow during our Covid-19 nightmare you're not getting the full picture of what's happening. That journalism excellence you relied on during Russia & impeachment is in full effect now. Thank you for shining a light in the places where we need to focus. — Jonathan Capehart (@CapehartJ) April 18, 2020
FLASHBACK:
● Shot: “In terms of the happy talk we’ve had on this front from the federal government, there is no sign that the Navy hospital ships that the president made such a big deal of, the Comfort and the Mercy, there’s no sign that they`ll be anywhere on-site helping out anywhere in the country for weeks yet. The president said when he announced that those ships would be put into action against the COVID-19 epidemic. He said one of those ships would be operational in New York harbor by next week. That`s nonsense. It will not be there next week.”
—MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, March 20th.
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● Chaser: “The Mercy arrived in L.A. on Friday, March 27, just one week after Maddow said the ship will take weeks to arrive. The USNS Comfort arrived in New York City’s harbor on Monday, March 30.”
—“Rachel Maddow Calls The Timely Arrival Of Navy Hospital Ships ‘Nonsense,’” the Federalist today.
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--COVID-19 crisis puts 30mn people at risk of starvation – UN

The head of the UN ’ s World Food Programme warns that the economic # shock of the # COVID19 @ @ @ @ @ some countries – be far deadlier than the virus itself .

The head of the UN’s World Food Programme warns that the economic #shock of the #COVID19 pandemic, could – in some countries – be far deadlier than the virus itself.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--7 Tips How To Make Millions In a Recession And Market Crash

Stock Market Crashes and Recessions are the best buying opportunities .
When that happens , Warren Buffett says to take @ @ @ @ @ gold .
Seven steps to be a millionaire after recessions and stock market crashes : @ @ @ @ @ – allows you to invest when others are selling in panic – have a cash @ @ @ @ @ whatever is going on – don ’ t have debt – gives you leverage when @ @ @ @ @ debt – always look for opportunities and buy when you like an investment – don @ @ @ @ @ – the earnings yield is what you are investing it , asset prices up is @ @ @ @ @ keep learning – there are always opportunities somewhere – this too shall pass Want to @ @ @ @ @ and portfolios ?
Here is my independent stock market analysis and research !
STOCK MARKET @ @ @ @ @ stocks to buy , model portfolio )

Stock Market Crashes and Recessions are the best buying opportunities. When that happens, Warren Buffett says to take out the bucket when raining gold.
Seven steps to be a millionaire after recessions and stock market crashes:
– be a financial fortress – allows you to invest when others are selling in panic
– have a cash cushion – keeps you calm whatever is going on
– don’t have debt – gives you leverage when things are cheap for smart debt
– always look for opportunities and buy when you like an investment
– don’t bet, invest – the earnings yield is what you are investing it, asset prices up is just a bonus
– always keep learning – there are always opportunities somewhere
– this too shall pass
Want to know more about my research and portfolios? Here is my independent stock market analysis and research! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio)
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Every COVID Commercial is the Same

Every COVID Commercial is the Same

When a company or brand releases a Coronavirus Response ad , they might tell you that we ’ re living @ @ @ @ @ , but that “ we ’ re here for you ” .
They may say @ @ @ @ @ people ” and “ families ” by bringing their services to the “ comfort and @ @ @ @ @ .
And don ’ t forget : “ we ’ re all in this together @ @

Corporate Covid-19 response videos are eerily similar. *Cue somber piano music*
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When a company or brand releases a Coronavirus Response ad, they might tell you that we’re living in “uncertain times”, but that “we’re here for you”. They may say their top priority is “people” and “families” by bringing their services to the “comfort and safety of your home”. And don’t forget: “we’re all in this together!”


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Commie Michigan Governor Just Made Michigan One Step Closer to a Warzone!

Jim Hoft from The Gateway Pundit reports , Crazed Democrat Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer prohibited big box retailers from in-person @ @ @ @ @ to her , plant seeds were non-essential .

Jim Hoft from The Gateway Pundit reports, Crazed Democrat Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer prohibited big box retailers from in-person sale of seeds because according to her, plant seeds were non-essential.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--The CARES Act and sentiment

The CARES Act and sentiment

Tl ; dr – The stimulus package is a failure , re-opening the economy is going to cause it to crash , bulls on parade until mid May but fair chance Lorek Byrnison is our next president .
It ’ s the weekend so I ’ m going to take the time to share some real life insight into what is happening with the stimulus package from the perspective of a small business owner .
It was either this or spend time with my children being a loving and attentive parent … so here we are .
I own multiple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states and have at this point applied for 9 loans/grants including multiple PPPs , EIDLs and a couple of the NYC 75k 0 % interest jammers .
I ’ ve received approval for 3 PPPs but no funding and one 10k deposit that we believe is an EIDL prepay that just showed up in an account one day without explanation .
Guidance on these loans has changed multiple times and this is causing confusion and in some cases , panic .
Here is what you need to understand : the PPP is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the PPP you can not use the money for anything except payroll , rent , utilities and healthcare .
That means no money for vendors ( let that sink in ) .
If you do not get a second loan of some kind , have a sufficient war chest or have personal money to jump start your business you are fucked ( I ’ m fine , if anyone cares ) .
Right now most people with small businesses have stopped paying EVERYTHING .
The only way the PPP gives a win to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and running before the June 30th forgiveness deadline .
In this case you ’ ll be able to keep money otherwise going to payroll and pay that from the loan .
This also assumes that when you are up and running you ’ re going to be doing decent numbers .
This is unlikely .
The money has run out .
PPP is waiting on a top up and it looks like NY State is waiting on Federal funding .
Not good news .
No one knows what ’ s happening with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mythical .
Most small businesses will try to reopen but will be saddled with breathtaking debt , a lot of which will pre-date the shutdowns and many of which are only growing .
Payments are going to go out in order of necessity to operate the business .
Rent , yes .
Product , yes .
Business insurance required under lease , yes .
Everything else is either a maybe or a no .
If the point of the stimulus plan was to allow for a V shaped recovery , it has failed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home eating a toaster strudel with four packets of frosting on it .
You drank a case of beer last night .
Unemployment checks are posting .
You don ’ t have to go to work on Monday or for the next few weeks .
Nothing about your life reflects the reality of the economic situation , why should the market .
That ’ s about to change dramatically .
Buy the rumor , sell the news .
Every mention of a cure or re-opening the economy is going to cause the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to continue until we actually re-open .
When that happens and we ’ re forced to open our doors and face the reality of this disaster it ’ s going to fall apart pretty quickly .
Expect bankruptcies to start within 3 months of reopen .
Bullish until NYC “ re-opens ” in May .
After that , start buying MRE ’ s .
Dance if there ’ s music .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diligence .

by Toothlesskinch
Tl;dr – The stimulus package is a failure, re-opening the economy is going to cause it to crash, bulls on parade until mid May but fair chance Lorek Byrnison is our next president.
It’s the weekend so I’m going to take the time to share some real life insight into what is happening with the stimulus package from the perspective of a small business owner. It was either this or spend time with my children being a loving and attentive parent … so here we are.
I own multiple businesses in the hospitality space in multiple states and have at this point applied for 9 loans/grants including multiple PPPs, EIDLs and a couple of the NYC 75k 0% interest jammers. I’ve received approval for 3 PPPs but no funding and one 10k deposit that we believe is an EIDL prepay that just showed up in an account one day without explanation. Guidance on these loans has changed multiple times and this is causing confusion and in some cases, panic.
Here is what you need to understand: the PPP is not enough. Not even close. Under the PPP you can not use the money for anything except payroll, rent, utilities and healthcare. That means no money for vendors (let that sink in). If you do not get a second loan of some kind, have a sufficient war chest or have personal money to jump start your business you are fucked (I’m fine, if anyone cares). Right now most people with small businesses have stopped paying EVERYTHING.
The only way the PPP gives a win to small businesses is if you are up and running before the June 30th forgiveness deadline. In this case you’ll be able to keep money otherwise going to payroll and pay that from the loan. This also assumes that when you are up and running you’re going to be doing decent numbers. This is unlikely.
The money has run out. PPP is waiting on a top up and it looks like NY State is waiting on Federal funding. Not good news. No one knows what’s happening with the EIDL’s, these have gone mythical.
Most small businesses will try to reopen but will be saddled with breathtaking debt, a lot of which will pre-date the shutdowns and many of which are only growing. Payments are going to go out in order of necessity to operate the business. Rent, yes. Product, yes. Business insurance required under lease, yes. Everything else is either a maybe or a no.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If the point of the stimulus plan was to allow for a V shaped recovery, it has failed.
“But OP, the market is irrational”
No. It’s. Not.
Right now you’re sitting at home eating a toaster strudel with four packets of frosting on it. You drank a case of beer last night. Unemployment checks are posting. You don’t have to go to work on Monday or for the next few weeks. Nothing about your life reflects the reality of the economic situation, why should the market. That’s about to change dramatically.
Buy the rumor, sell the news. Every mention of a cure or re-opening the economy is going to cause the market to moon and that’s going to continue until we actually re-open. When that happens and we’re forced to open our doors and face the reality of this disaster it’s going to fall apart pretty quickly. Expect bankruptcies to start within 3 months of reopen.
Bullish until NYC “re-opens” in May. After that, start buying MRE’s. Dance if there’s music.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--TrumPump Cheat Code Exposed!

TrumPump Cheat Code Exposed!

First and foremost , I am not working for the feds .
But I just wan na say that I was vaccinated at a young age and hence am clearly autistic , which is why I managed to discover the cheat code .
Simply observing the daily changes of SP500 it is apparent to anyone who has autism that the feds time their ultimates perfectly , it is not known if their ultimates have a cooldown , but they time it perfectly and heres what I mean .
Every Thursday , unemployment numbers are released .
The numbers have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bread line seems to have no apparent effect .
Why is that so ?
Lets visualize when the Feds use their ultimates in a single graph .
Feds using their ultimates on SP500 It is apparent that every week , the Feds MUST release one piece of good news to the shareholders before the bad news and thats what creates the impression of bull weeks that we have been witnessing .
If we follow this theory , the most autistic strategy is to bank in on the fact that the feds burn 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
How can we use this to our advantage ?
Feds need to time their ultimates so optimally we buy calls before they use it .
When will the Feds use their ultimate again ?
I don ’ t know for sure , but here are some critical dates : FDA Approval Dates – These are the ultimate abilities that Feds have in their pocket , it doesn ’ t matter if the drug works , they just need to make the headlines .
Buy calls every Wednesday morning , sell it once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 300c 4/24 , buy it on 4/22 at market open .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by unikend
First and foremost, I am not working for the feds. But I just wanna say that I was vaccinated at a young age and hence am clearly autistic, which is why I managed to discover the cheat code.
Simply observing the daily changes of SP500 it is apparent to anyone who has autism that the feds time their ultimates perfectly, it is not known if their ultimates have a cooldown, but they time it perfectly and heres what I mean.
Every Thursday, unemployment numbers are released. The numbers have been ridiculous, and news coverage about the bread line seems to have no apparent effect. Why is that so? Lets visualize when the Feds use their ultimates in a single graph.

Feds using their ultimates on SP500

It is apparent that every week, the Feds MUST release one piece of good news to the shareholders before the bad news and thats what creates the impression of bull weeks that we have been witnessing.
If we follow this theory, the most autistic strategy is to bank in on the fact that the feds burn 1 ultimate every week between Wednesday and Thursday.

How can we use this to our advantage?
Feds need to time their ultimates so optimally we buy calls before they use it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!

When will the Feds use their ultimate again?
I don’t know for sure, but here are some critical dates:
GDP Estimates – 4/29 08:30am, 4/30 08:30am
Weekly Jobless Claims -Thursdays 08:30am
FDA Approval Dates – These are the ultimate abilities that Feds have in their pocket, it doesn’t matter if the drug works, they just need to make the headlines.

TL;DR
Buy calls every Wednesday morning, sell it once the Feds use their ultimate.

SPY 300c 4/24, buy it on 4/22 at market open.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Why Friday was likely the top for now.

Why Friday was likely the top for now.

My attempt at analysing the SPY chart after last week ( AKA Crayon drawings ) : The rally from the lows ( likely initiated by massive shorts covering ) has been gaining momentum for a while .
This last week it has been losing momentum , and the last gap up on low volume looks extremely weak .
Every indicator that I use for spotting possible tops are blinking bright red at the moment : • Bearish divergence in RSI/MACD ( momentum is bearish but chart shows new highs ) • Volume falling ( a healthy rally should be on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having significantly higher volume than the red days ) • Chart patterns ( Not big on them , but island tops / double tops are usually quite reliable – we now possibly have both ) • Fundamentals are weakening ( We are probably in the beginning of the worst recession since the 30s.. ) If we get a solid gap down on Monday ( to around 282 or lower ) and the gap doesn ’ t close , the double island top reversal pattern is complete , and the market will probably continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are around 270 , 240 and 220 .
Plan accordingly .
TL ; DR : Money printer goes BRRRRR , stonks only go up Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by TessTickols
My attempt at analysing the SPY chart after last week (AKA Crayon drawings):
www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/MLMq5QLn-Bear-market-rally-finally-reversing/
The rally from the lows (likely initiated by massive shorts covering) has been gaining momentum for a while. This last week it has been losing momentum, and the last gap up on low volume looks extremely weak.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Every indicator that I use for spotting possible tops are blinking bright red at the moment:
Bearish divergence in RSI/MACD (momentum is bearish but chart shows new highs)
Volume falling (a healthy rally should be on increasing volume, with the green days having significantly higher volume than the red days)
Chart patterns (Not big on them, but island tops / double tops are usually quite reliable – we now possibly have both)
Fundamentals are weakening (We are probably in the beginning of the worst recession since the 30s..)
If we get a solid gap down on Monday (to around 282 or lower) and the gap doesn’t close, the double island top reversal pattern is complete, and the market will probably continue down for a bit. Key support-zones are around 270, 240 and 220. Plan accordingly.
TL;DR: Money printer goes BRRRRR, stonks only go up
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Deep Recession + Boomer Downsizing = Plunging Home Prices

Harry Dent , a newsletter publisher who uses demographic trends to forecast market movements , believes that even before covid-19 blindsided the global economy , the US housing market was toast .
From one of his recent interviews : Baby Boomers are now dying at unprecedented rates and will continue to do so into 2040 .
That takes the net demand for real estate negative , so homes are never going to appreciate even in the next boom .
A lot of boomers are realizing they didn ’ t save for retirement because they ’ re living in good times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to , and now they ’ re saying wait a minute , I don ’ t need my McMansion now that my kids are gone .
I can sell that and instantly fund my retirement plan and then rent my retirement home .
For the first time in all of modern history the next generation has fewer peak buyers for everything than the baby boom , and in many countries it ’ s significantly less .
Real estate will never be the same .
Millennials don ’ t buy as many houses or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be sharing McMansions they ’ ll be so cheap .
Split them into duplexes because they ’ ll be selling for only a little more than an average home .
I don ’ t think real estate will ever again get to these prices .
In Japan real estate crashed b 60 % and has never bounced back because their population is older than most others and there are more baby boomers dying than Millennials entering the housing market .
[ The US ] population is barely going to grow in coming decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ age 42 from the diers age 78 , net demand for real estate goes down for the next two or three decades .
So there ’ s no way real estate ’ s going to go up as it has in the past .
It ’ ll be lucky to go up at the inflation rate after this crash .
Dent ’ s thesis makes intuitive sense : If you ’ re 70 years old ( as the oldest Boomers are ) , having more house than you need is a burden rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your savings are inadequate ( as is true for most Boomers ) converting an expensive possession like a house with its taxes and upkeep into spendable cash makes financial sense .
Now add a pandemic-driven recession – possibly a deep one – and what might have otherwise been a leisurely process ( “ Let ’ s look into selling and maybe start the clean-up with a target of listing in 2021 ” ) becomes varying shades of urgent , depending on what ’ s happening with a given retiree ’ s stock portfolio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sale might spike rather than drift higher , sending prices lower , possibly a lot lower .
One quick way to find out whether this is happening is to track price changes on Zillow .
When reductions become big and frequent , that ’ s a sign that this process is gathering steam – and that the seller mindset has shifted from getting the best possible price to getting some price .
Of such shifts are bear markets made .

BY JOHN RUBINO
Harry Dent, a newsletter publisher who uses demographic trends to forecast market movements, believes that even before covid-19 blindsided the global economy, the US housing market was toast. From one of his recent interviews:
Baby Boomers are now dying at unprecedented rates and will continue to do so into 2040. That takes the net demand for real estate negative, so homes are never going to appreciate even in the next boom. A lot of boomers are realizing they didn’t save for retirement because they’re living in good times and didn’t think they needed to, and now they’re saying wait a minute, I don’t need my McMansion now that my kids are gone. I can sell that and instantly fund my retirement plan and then rent my retirement home. For the first time in all of modern history the next generation has fewer peak buyers for everything than the baby boom, and in many countries it’s significantly less. Real estate will never be the same. Millennials don’t buy as many houses or as big houses. They’ll be sharing McMansions they’ll be so cheap. Split them into duplexes because they’ll be selling for only a little more than an average home. I don’t think real estate will ever again get to these prices. In Japan real estate crashed b 60% and has never bounced back because their population is older than most others and there are more baby boomers dying than Millennials entering the housing market. [The US] population is barely going to grow in coming decades. When I subtract the peak buyers age 42 from the diers age 78, net demand for real estate goes down for the next two or three decades. So there’s no way real estate’s going to go up as it has in the past. It’ll be lucky to go up at the inflation rate after this crash.
Dent’s thesis makes intuitive sense: If you’re 70 years old (as the oldest Boomers are), having more house than you need is a burden rather than a status symbol. And if your savings are inadequate (as is true for most Boomers) converting an expensive possession like a house with its taxes and upkeep into spendable cash makes financial sense.
Now add a pandemic-driven recession – possibly a deep one – and what might have otherwise been a leisurely process (“Let’s look into selling and maybe start the clean-up with a target of listing in 2021”) becomes varying shades of urgent, depending on what’s happening with a given retiree’s stock portfolio.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
So the supply of homes for sale might spike rather than drift higher, sending prices lower, possibly a lot lower.
One quick way to find out whether this is happening is to track price changes on Zillow.
When reductions become big and frequent, that’s a sign that this process is gathering steam – and that the seller mindset has shifted from getting the best possible price to getting some price. Of such shifts are bear markets made.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--$40 billion hedge fund Elliott Management is being very bearish saying stocks could well fall anothe

$40 billion hedge fund Elliott Management is being very bearish saying stocks could well fall another 40% from their current levels before bottoming.

New York-based hedge fund founder and CEO Paul Singer believes that amid the COVID-19 outburst , stocks across the world @ @ @ @ @ from its February high levels .
“ A 50 % or deeper decline from the @ @ @ @ @ the ultimate path of global stock markets ” , CNBC reported as Elliott said in @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S .
Benchmark Index S & P 500 reversed its losing streak and recorded @ @ @ @ @ ( as of Apr 16 ) in the past four weeks .
On Mar 23 @ @ @ @ @ to its 52-week low of 2,191.86 from its 52-week high levels recorded on Feb 19 @ @ @ @ @ to scale out of the recession caused by the coronavirus outbreak , gold and credit @ @ @ @ @ safe-haven investments .
Gold price is currently at $ 1,709.55 per ounce .

via benzinga
New York-based hedge fund founder and CEO Paul Singer believes that amid the COVID-19 outburst, stocks across the world might see a value erosion from its February high levels.
What Happened
“A 50% or deeper decline from the February peak levels might be the ultimate path of global stock markets”, CNBC reported as Elliott said in a letter to its clients.
U.S. Benchmark Index S&P 500 reversed its losing streak and recorded a surge of 27.7% (as of Apr 16) in the past four weeks. On Mar 23, the index had stumbled to its 52-week low of 2,191.86 from its 52-week high levels recorded on Feb 19.
With world economies struggling to scale out of the recession caused by the coronavirus outbreak, gold and credit investments are believed to be safe-haven investments. Gold price is currently at $1,709.55 per ounce.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Economy Goes Down FAST. This Will Only Get Worse as Mass Job Cuts, Unemployment Escalate!

We are in the middle of the most overvalued market ever .
Despite the fact that we have come down @ @ @ @ @ , on many , many metrics , we are seeing massive overvaluation .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ market sees money printing as a positive note .
Most importantly , they realize that @ @ @ @ @ one who can save their investments , retirement accounts , and potentially , their jobs @ @ @ @ @ Bailouts : How Stimulus Works in a Vacuum Moody ’ s May Cut $ 22 @ @ @ @ @ Pandemic Losses – Bloomberg Illinois Seeks a Bailout From Congress for Pensions and Cities – @ @ @ @ @ 3 ) Sven Henrich on Twitter : “ This crisis is following the same script @ @ @ @ @ years ago : The poor get poorer , the middle class shrinks , the big @ @ @ @ @ the bottom 90 % gets settled with all the new record debt .
And then @ @ @ @ @ ” magazine covers.
” / Twitter

We are in the middle of the most overvalued market ever. Despite the fact that we have come down significantly from the highest point, on many, many metrics, we are seeing massive overvaluation. It’s very clear that the market sees money printing as a positive note. Most importantly, they realize that the Fed is the only one who can save their investments, retirement accounts, and potentially, their jobs.
SPX valuations overvalued.jpg (1153×727)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SPX%20valuations%20overvalued.jpg?itok=2Xu9xdug
Nothing Is Certain But Bailouts: How Stimulus Works in a Vacuum
finance.yahoo.com/news/nothing-certain-bailouts-stimulus-works-110000255.html
5fd15798b8b11b760da572ea55adebda (1200×675)
s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/s5FkrT.U4neoVlPXSpH_6Q–~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9MTIwMDtoPTY3NQ–/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/5fd15798b8b11b760da572ea55adebda
181b2b7ee369157832d54d7896a67942 (1200×675)
s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/QaTZpnWDeK63mIRLHlTlOQ–~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9MTIwMDtoPTY3NQ–/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/181b2b7ee369157832d54d7896a67942
corp profits until 2023_0.jpg (778×467)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/corp%20profits%20until%202023_0.jpg?itok=RRVwMwKm
retail sales april 2020.jpg (1280×593)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/retail%20sales%20april%202020.jpg?itok=SY0EHD5D
consumer spending bofa summary april 2020.jpg (1172×1335)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/consumer%20spending%20bofa%20summary%20april%202020.jpg?itok=Rk1zcCMO
bac credit data.jpg (1051×1160)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bac%20credit%20data.jpg?itok=nGMyF_e1
BofA MoM BofA April 2020.jpg (944×508)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/BofA%20MoM%20BofA%20April%202020.jpg?itok=iSaeQsP_
BofA YoY drop retail april 2020_0.jpg (888×342)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/BofA%20YoY%20drop%20retail%20april%202020_0.jpg?itok=FuGDl80C
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aggregate daily spending april 2020.jpg (1118×435)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/aggregate%20daily%20spending%20april%202020.jpg?itok=fYl6GffJ
aggregate daily spending.jpg (670×503)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/aggregate%20daily%20spending.jpg?itok=tBxtUFjc
restaurant spending.jpg (724×526)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/restaurant%20spending.jpg?itok=L28QutK1
Moody’s May Cut $22 Billlion of CLO Bonds on Pandemic Losses – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-18/moody-s-may-downgrade-22-billlion-of-clo-bonds-on-covid-risk
list surged.jpg (1212×569)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/list%20surged.jpg?itok=XBuZWVsC
Illinois Seeks a Bailout From Congress for Pensions and Cities – The New York Times
www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/business/dealbook/illinois-pension-coronavirus.html
24 Hour Fitness weighs bankruptcy amid coronavirus pandemic
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/18/24-hour-fitness-weighs-bankruptcy-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty | Nasdaq
www.nasdaq.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-stops-accepting-heloc-applications-due-to-coronavirus-uncertainty-2020-04
Mile-Long Food Bank Car Lines Between Luxury Hotels in Miami
www.tmz.com/2020/04/18/one-mile-long-line-of-cars-waiting-food-bank-miami-luxury-hotels/
(3) Sven Henrich on Twitter: “This crisis is following the same script as the last one 12 years ago: The poor get poorer, the middle class shrinks, the big boys get bailed out and the bottom 90% gets settled with all the new record debt. And then central bankers get “Hero” magazine covers.” / Twitter
twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1251152108214050816


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Kellyanne Conway Shuts Down Reporter With One BRUTAL Reality Check

Courtney O ’ Brien from Town Hall reports , CBS News reporter Paula Reid irked President Trump at one of @ @ @ @ @ last week with her snarky line of questioning .
“ Why are there no consequences @ @ @ @ @ ?
” she asked at one presser .

Courtney O’Brien from Town Hall reports, CBS News reporter Paula Reid irked President Trump at one of his coronavirus task force briefings last week with her snarky line of questioning. “Why are there no consequences for China for the misinformation?” she asked at one presser.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/cortney…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Michigan Dem STUNS ALL – Urges Left To Rally Behind Trump

Christine Favocci from The Western Journal reports , There shouldn ’ t be a partisan divide when it comes to @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s exactly what ’ s happened after Democratic Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump for touting the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine , which she credits for her recovery @ @ @

Christine Favocci from The Western Journal reports, There shouldn’t be a partisan divide when it comes to a deadly crisis, but that’s exactly what’s happened after Democratic Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett expressed her gratitude to President Donald Trump for touting the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine, which she credits for her recovery from CV.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.westernjournal.com/michig…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--If only logic and reasoning made money in trading, traders with above average IQ’s would be milliona

If only logic and reasoning made money in trading, traders with above average IQ’s would be millionaires.

There are many post here , which logically makes sense i.e to buy puts or have a negative view on the markets .
Shorting stocks or index in a time of unresolved COVID issue seems a no brainer .
Airlines , hotels , cruiselines , automotives and a wide variety of other business that have lost or are losing customers and revenue , or even facing bankruptcy seems like once in a lifetime opportunity to make a hundred thousand odd dollars or two by shorting the stocks or the index .
But in reality , many of the bearish traders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bruised bears .
Just think about this from another point of view .
For every trader buying puts , there is also an option seller .
The option seller is just as informed if not more than the put buyer .
This is because as a seller , he is taking a huge risk on the downside for a limited amount of premium .
Now why would he do that ?
Or ask yourself , what information , data , insight or strategy an option seller has that gives him the confidence to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perception of stocks in the market ?
From what has happened till now , it would seem that the option sellers had factored in profit booking of shorts , short covering of bears , the stimulus and money printing machine from the Fed etc .
which has led to a sharp pull back in the market resulting in many a bears to lose their shirt .
For making money in the market , a trader needs to align himself to the market sentiments and not fight it .
Hence , logic alone can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Market timing is also important .
and there will be opportunity to short .
The market will give clues .
Once there is limited upmoves , or congestion on the upside , bears will take control of the situation .
It is at that time an individual trader can take a position which is in line with market sentiments and logic .
Trading on the basis of only having a logical and rational view is highly risky if not supported by market data/charts in the short term .
Hence , study of market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ necessary .
Hence believe that besides logic and reasoning , trading in line with the market sentiments ( and not against it ) is the way to make money .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by zen4ever99
There are many post here, which logically makes sense i.e to buy puts or have a negative view on the markets. Shorting stocks or index in a time of unresolved COVID issue seems a no brainer. Airlines, hotels, cruiselines, automotives and a wide variety of other business that have lost or are losing customers and revenue, or even facing bankruptcy seems like once in a lifetime opportunity to make a hundred thousand odd dollars or two by shorting the stocks or the index.
But in reality, many of the bearish traders have lost their shirt and are now bruised bears. Just think about this from another point of view. For every trader buying puts, there is also an option seller. The option seller is just as informed if not more than the put buyer. This is because as a seller, he is taking a huge risk on the downside for a limited amount of premium. Now why would he do that? Or ask yourself, what information, data, insight or strategy an option seller has that gives him the confidence to sell puts when there is a negative perception of stocks in the market?
From what has happened till now, it would seem that the option sellers had factored in profit booking of shorts, short covering of bears, the stimulus and money printing machine from the Fed etc. which has led to a sharp pull back in the market resulting in many a bears to lose their shirt.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
For making money in the market, a trader needs to align himself to the market sentiments and not fight it. Hence, logic alone cannot be the criteria to trade. Market timing is also important. and there will be opportunity to short. The market will give clues. Once there is limited upmoves, or congestion on the upside, bears will take control of the situation. It is at that time an individual trader can take a position which is in line with market sentiments and logic. Trading on the basis of only having a logical and rational view is highly risky if not supported by market data/charts in the short term.
Hence, study of market sentiments besides rational and logic is also necessary.
Hence believe that besides logic and reasoning, trading in line with the market sentiments (and not against it) is the way to make money.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--More depression era-style news.

More depression era-style news.

Research from the USC Downside Center for Economic and Social Research found that only 45 % of LA residents are @ @ @ @ @ % since mid-March .

Research from the USC Downside Center for Economic and Social Research found that only 45% of LA residents are still employed — down 16% since mid-March.