investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--What isn’t “priced-in”: The public resistance to going back to normal

POTUS can lift the rhetoric away from social distancing and isolation as soon as he wants after the 15 day period , but realistically people will continue to stay inside , depriving the economy of a lot of transaction for a very long time .
I believe this will go even as far as large employers having to bend over to their workforce ’ s wills .
What is a small HR team going to do if the majority of employees feel unsafe to return to desk work , especially since working from home just proved possible and a success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not go to restaurants all year or longer , employees may band together and keep offices dark and shut down , all of that stimulus Washington wants to send individuals is supposed to be a stop-gap , but what are the chances we go back to 100 % as-is before this all happened even within 2 or 3 years ?
I would argue life has changed as we know it for a very long time and the lawmakers are mistakenly creating a bailout plan that assumes otherwise .
Consider the medium term permanent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and leisure from the lingering effects of this and what to do with the laid off employees in that massive industry .
Are you really hopping on a plane in 2020 if you don ’ t really have to ?
Consider the huge reduction in restaurant visits and frankly physical restaurant locations for possibly years and the fallout from the reduction in jobs there ( unique jobs where you can make quite a bit over minimum wage through tips ) .
Consider a cruise industry that may get bailed out now and then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from lack of business for the next few years because who the hell would go into an environment that proved itself as a perfect proliferation cesspool for the virus to spread .
What do we do with the tens of thousands to be laid off from Boeing because the demand for new planes just isn ’ t at a pace where they can pay back their bailout even a few years out ?
Washington is coming up with stop-gaps by delaying mortages and cutting people a month ’ s rent but industry “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
How many more checks will they cut ?
If you think this game is over with a vaccine or a cure , I would argue it ’ s just the beginning of the next chapter .
Once the second wave hits ( if we are lucky to even drop the case rate enough to really call it a second wave soon ) what will our governments do after they saw the economic fallout from the first shutdown and spent so much of their ammo trying to save us from that ?
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social distancing/stay at home campaign , we will probably just keep doing it though on our own which is my point .
I see a scenario where we are all told to carry on as normal when we don ’ t really want to .
It was only in the last few days where we saw this virus kill people in their 30 ’ s with no pre-existing conditions in the United States .
It ’ s quickly going from “ boomer-remover ” to “ oh shit I don ’ t want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severity of the virus will only get more intensified as we start to each know someone that contracts it and falls ill. That experience will keep you home for a very long time if you ’ re lucky enough not to get it .
You can take this as bearish and buy index puts if you want but my personal takeaway right now is cash is king if only because you ’ ll need it if you get laid off .
Expect wage depression , long term social unrest and entire industries to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the decade .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Chicken65
POTUS can lift the rhetoric away from social distancing and isolation as soon as he wants after the 15 day period, but realistically people will continue to stay inside, depriving the economy of a lot of transaction for a very long time. I believe this will go even as far as large employers having to bend over to their workforce’s wills. What is a small HR team going to do if the majority of employees feel unsafe to return to desk work, especially since working from home just proved possible and a success? What happens then? Families may not go to restaurants all year or longer, employees may band together and keep offices dark and shut down, all of that stimulus Washington wants to send individuals is supposed to be a stop-gap, but what are the chances we go back to 100% as-is before this all happened even within 2 or 3 years? I would argue life has changed as we know it for a very long time and the lawmakers are mistakenly creating a bailout plan that assumes otherwise.
Consider the medium term permanent reduction in air travel for both business and leisure from the lingering effects of this and what to do with the laid off employees in that massive industry. Are you really hopping on a plane in 2020 if you don’t really have to? Consider the huge reduction in restaurant visits and frankly physical restaurant locations for possibly years and the fallout from the reduction in jobs there (unique jobs where you can make quite a bit over minimum wage through tips). Consider a cruise industry that may get bailed out now and then need another bail out down the road from lack of business for the next few years because who the hell would go into an environment that proved itself as a perfect proliferation cesspool for the virus to spread. What do we do with the tens of thousands to be laid off from Boeing because the demand for new planes just isn’t at a pace where they can pay back their bailout even a few years out? Washington is coming up with stop-gaps by delaying mortages and cutting people a month’s rent but industry “right-sizing” of headcount has barely begun. How many more checks will they cut?
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If you think this game is over with a vaccine or a cure, I would argue it’s just the beginning of the next chapter. Once the second wave hits (if we are lucky to even drop the case rate enough to really call it a second wave soon) what will our governments do after they saw the economic fallout from the first shutdown and spent so much of their ammo trying to save us from that? I doubt there will be a second official social distancing/stay at home campaign, we will probably just keep doing it though on our own which is my point. I see a scenario where we are all told to carry on as normal when we don’t really want to. It was only in the last few days where we saw this virus kill people in their 30’s with no pre-existing conditions in the United States. It’s quickly going from “boomer-remover” to “oh shit I don’t want to get that.” The reality of the severity of the virus will only get more intensified as we start to each know someone that contracts it and falls ill. That experience will keep you home for a very long time if you’re lucky enough not to get it.
You can take this as bearish and buy index puts if you want but my personal takeaway right now is cash is king if only because you’ll need it if you get laid off. Expect wage depression, long term social unrest and entire industries to never recover until the latter half of the decade.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Coronavirus lives much longer than anyone thought. Round 3 coming to us soon.

• The coronavirus can survive on surfaces for up to 17 days , a study published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says .
• The study examines two public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on the Carnival-owned Diamond Princess ship in Japan and the Grand Princess ship in California .
• The virus “ was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated… ” the researchers wrote .
The coronavirus survived for up to 17 days aboard the Diamond Princess cruise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than previous research has shown , according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
The study examined the Japanese and U.S. government efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreaks on the Carnival-owned Diamond Princess ship in Japan and the Grand Princess ship in California .
Passengers and crew on both ships were quarantined on board after previous guests , who didn ’ t have any symptoms while aboard each of the ships , tested positive for COVID-19 after landing ashore .
The virus “ was identified on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted , ” the researchers wrote , adding that the finding doesn ’ t necessarily mean the virus spread by surface .
“ COVID-19 on cruise ships poses a risk for rapid spread of disease , causing outbreaks in a vulnerable population , and aggressive efforts are required to contain spread , ” the CDC wrote , reiterating its guidance to vulnerable populations to avoid cruises during the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health , CDC , UCLA and Princeton University previously found that COVID-19 can last up to three days on plastic and stainless steel .
That study also found that the amount of the virus left on those surfaces decreased over time .

The coronavirus can survive on surfaces for up to 17 days, a study published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.
The study examines two public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on the Carnival-owned Diamond Princess ship in Japan and the Grand Princess ship in California.
The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated…” the researchers wrote.
The coronavirus survived for up to 17 days aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, living far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The study examined the Japanese and U.S. government efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreaks on the Carnival-owned Diamond Princess ship in Japan and the Grand Princess ship in California. Passengers and crew on both ships were quarantined on board after previous guests, who didn’t have any symptoms while aboard each of the ships, tested positive for COVID-19 after landing ashore.
The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted,” the researchers wrote, adding that the finding doesn’t necessarily mean the virus spread by surface.
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“COVID-19 on cruise ships poses a risk for rapid spread of disease, causing outbreaks in a vulnerable population, and aggressive efforts are required to contain spread,” the CDC wrote, reiterating its guidance to vulnerable populations to avoid cruises during the pandemic.
Researchers from the National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University previously found that COVID-19 can last up to three days on plastic and stainless steel. That study also found that the amount of the virus left on those surfaces decreased over time.
www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--The FED has officially wasted their ultimate

Barely a week into the unofficial self quarantine and papa J has already wasted one of the FEDs most powerful tools , literally just buying every fucking bond they can .
It was said here before , the Federal gov is throwing money at a problem that doesnt accept cash .
There is no way to prop up an economy when there is no demand or supply for entire sectors .
We are talking numbers larger than the great depression .
While we are one step away from the government just straight up buying stock , be thankful that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US have all decided to give this community another entry point for poots .
Wait until the volatility settles , then its time to start buying puts again , no amount of corporate debt ( even at 0 interest owed to the fed , STILL NEEDS TO BE PAID BACK ) can ever be enough when their is just no fucking cash flow .
Enter your puts if vix falls below 50 before next monday otherwise pick up some june spy puts on march 30th , Q2 earnings will be the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasted their ultimate .
Short of just manipulating the stock market directly of course , but if that happens then really wtf is the point of trading anymore ?
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Vi0lentByt3
Barely a week into the unofficial self quarantine and papa J has already wasted one of the FEDs most powerful tools, literally just buying every fucking bond they can. It was said here before, the Federal gov is throwing money at a problem that doesnt accept cash. There is no way to prop up an economy when there is no demand or supply for entire sectors. We are talking numbers larger than the great depression.
While we are one step away from the government just straight up buying stock, be thankful that the reats over at the central bank for the US have all decided to give this community another entry point for poots.
Wait until the volatility settles, then its time to start buying puts again, no amount of corporate debt( even at 0 interest owed to the fed, STILL NEEDS TO BE PAID BACK) can ever be enough when their is just no fucking cash flow.
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Enter your puts if vix falls below 50 before next monday otherwise pick up some june spy puts on march 30th, Q2 earnings will be the next battle field and the fed has already wasted their ultimate.
Short of just manipulating the stock market directly of course, but if that happens then really wtf is the point of trading anymore?
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


Flash PMI’s

tl/dr we ’ re going into a f*cked up global recession

by SagaStrider
France
Japan
Germany
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Eurozone
UK
tl/dr we’re going into a f*cked up global recession


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--America Throwing Elderly to the sideline to save the markets

LT Gov .
Dan Patrick went on fox and said that Grandparents should die so the whole country shouldn ’ @ @ @ @

by megachirops95
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Tx Lt Gov Dan Patrick says grandparents would be willing to die to save the economy for their grandchildren pic.twitter.com/wC3Ngvtsbj — Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) March 24, 2020
LT Gov. Dan Patrick went on fox and said that Grandparents should die so the whole country shouldn’t be sacrificed.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--75% of small businesses cannot last a month with zero revenues. Morgan Stanley expects initial joble

75% of small businesses cannot last a month with zero revenues. Morgan Stanley expects initial jobless claims to rise to 3.4 million

Buddy , can you spare dime ?
Echoes of ’ 30s in viral crisis ?

75% of small businesses cannot last a month with zero revenues. The median cash buffer is 27 days. This is why we need serious supply measures to allow businesses to survive a mandatory shutdown. pic.twitter.com/XpeQPi2sK4 — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 24, 2020
More than 47,000 U.S. chain stores have temporarily shut their doors. “In the space of a week, the retail landscape has changed from being fairly normalized to being absolutely disrupted beyond what we’ve ever seen before outside of the Second World War.” t.co/K8pan4kNtt — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 24, 2020
Morgan Stanley expects initial jobless claims to rise to 3.4 million pic.twitter.com/8EVU9mrXJl — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 24, 2020
Buddy, can you spare dime? Echoes of ’30s in viral crisis?
Economists See Worst-Ever Quarterly Contraction…
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Mortgage Firms Brace for Wave of Missed Payments…
After cutting #SP500 by a third, even the most pessimistic of the valuation ratios I follow – Price to Sales – predicts now almost 6% of total return per annum over the long term.
Enormous improvement over just a couple of weeks! pic.twitter.com/eBQMZIQMbj — Tomasz Hońdo, CFA (@HondoTomasz) March 24, 2020
Commercial real estate t.co/3ESajrSYg9 — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--It’s Not “Just The Flu”: Here Is Why You Definitely DO NOT Want To Catch This Coronavirus…

Can you imagine being in “ blinding pain ” for weeks , constantly gasping for air as you feel like you are being suffocated , and screaming for mercy because you are in so much constant torment ?
As you will see below , coronavirus survivors are telling us about their hellish ordeals , and they are warning us to do everything that we can to avoid this virus .
Of course they are the lucky ones .
As I detailed in another article , the global death toll has doubled over the past six days , and so far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States is extremely alarming .
So those that survive should consider themselves to be very fortunate , but many of those same individuals will be left with permanent lung damage .
This virus attacks the respiratory system with a ferocity that is shocking doctors , and those that are still attempting to claim that COVID-19 is “ just like the flu ” need to stop , because they are just making things worse .
Researchers have found that this virus has an incubation period of up to 24 days , and people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are showing any symptoms .
And you don ’ t even have to encounter someone with the virus to catch it .
According to Bloomberg , new research has discovered that this virus can remain on surfaces “ for as many as 17 days ” … Traces of new coronavirus were found on surfaces in cruise-ship cabins for as many as 17 days after passengers left , researchers said , though it wasn ’ t possible to determine whether they caused any infections .
Researchers looked at the rooms of infected passengers aboard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed symptoms and those who didn ’ t , according to a study Monday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’ s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report .
When you combine those two factors , it makes COVID-19 nearly impossible to contain .
This is a major emergency , and it makes me angry that there are prominent voices out there that are still trying to downplay this pandemic .
As a result , many people are not taking proper precautions , and a lot of them are going to end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are reading this and you still don ’ t think that COVID-19 is a big deal , please take a moment to consider the following five stories about coronavirus survivors… That night I woke up in the middle of the night with chills , vomiting , and shortness of breath .
By Monday , I could barely speak more than a few words without feeling like I was gasping for air .
I couldn ’ t walk to the bathroom without panting as if I ’ d run a mile .
On Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but found I couldn ’ t get enough oxygen while doing so .
Any task that was at all anxiety-producing — even resetting my MyChart password to communicate with my doctor — left me desperate for oxygen .
A Welshman who caught the coronavirus in China has described how the deadly disease hit him “ like a train ” leaving him “ suffocating ” and in blinding pain for weeks .
Connor Reed , from Llandudno , got ill while working as an English teacher in Wuhan .
The 25-year-old described how it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on November 25 – a month before authorities officially announced the virus – but over the next three-and-a-half weeks he got increasingly ill and was unable to move .
‘ It ’ s like having glass in your lungs , it ’ s hard to explain , but every breath is a battle .
‘ It ’ s absolutely horrible and I wouldn ’ t want to go through anything like this ever again .
I ’ d been ill for about five days before I was taken to hospital in an ambulance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diagnosed with a chest infection and given antibiotics and advised to take ibuprofen and paracetamol .
I was taking about eight ibuprofen a day and they now think that that exacerbated the problem .
As you can see , this virus is not just hitting “ old people ” extremely hard .
But if you are above the age of 60 , please understand that you at very high risk , and you need to stay away from public places for the foreseeable future .
I know that it can be hard to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is truly a very , very deadly virus .
At this point , even doctors and nurses are “ scared to go to work ” … Doctors and nurses on the front lines of the fight against the coronavirus in the United States say it ’ s “ the first time ” they ’ ve been scared to go to work .
With a shortage of personal protective equipment , some have resorted to using bandanas to cover their faces .
“ It ’ s the first time we ’ ve ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but despite being scared we are trained to save lives and we ’ re committed to doing that , ” Dr. Cornelia Griggs , a surgeon in New York City , told “ CBS This Morning.
” “ I ’ m embarrassed to say , but prior to this , my husband and I had never gotten around to writing a will , but this weekend that became one of our to-do list items.
” As I have been writing this article , over 2,000 more confirmed cases were added to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States .
And as I discussed yesterday , it looks like the U.S. is going to have a very high death rate just like we are seeing in western European countries such as Italy and Spain .
So please take this pandemic very seriously .
A lot of Americans are going to die , and it is going to be a great national tragedy .
Please pray for those that have caught the virus and are deeply suffering .
It is in our darkest moments that we need a miracle the most , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people out there that need one right now .

by Michael Snyder
Can you imagine being in “blinding pain” for weeks, constantly gasping for air as you feel like you are being suffocated, and screaming for mercy because you are in so much constant torment? As you will see below, coronavirus survivors are telling us about their hellish ordeals, and they are warning us to do everything that we can to avoid this virus. Of course they are the lucky ones. As I detailed in another article, the global death toll has doubled over the past six days, and so far the very high death rate in the United States is extremely alarming. So those that survive should consider themselves to be very fortunate, but many of those same individuals will be left with permanent lung damage. This virus attacks the respiratory system with a ferocity that is shocking doctors, and those that are still attempting to claim that COVID-19 is “just like the flu” need to stop, because they are just making things worse.
Researchers have found that this virus has an incubation period of up to 24 days, and people can spread it around long before they are showing any symptoms.
And you don’t even have to encounter someone with the virus to catch it. According to Bloomberg, new research has discovered that this virus can remain on surfaces “for as many as 17 days”…
Traces of new coronavirus were found on surfaces in cruise-ship cabins for as many as 17 days after passengers left, researchers said, though it wasn’t possible to determine whether they caused any infections. Researchers looked at the rooms of infected passengers aboard the Diamond Princess, both those who showed symptoms and those who didn’t, according to a study Monday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
When you combine those two factors, it makes COVID-19 nearly impossible to contain.
This is a major emergency, and it makes me angry that there are prominent voices out there that are still trying to downplay this pandemic. As a result, many people are not taking proper precautions, and a lot of them are going to end up catching the virus.
If you are reading this and you still don’t think that COVID-19 is a big deal, please take a moment to consider the following five stories about coronavirus survivors…
#1 26-year-old Fiona Lowenstein
That night I woke up in the middle of the night with chills, vomiting, and shortness of breath. By Monday, I could barely speak more than a few words without feeling like I was gasping for air. I couldn’t walk to the bathroom without panting as if I’d run a mile. On Monday evening, I tried to eat, but found I couldn’t get enough oxygen while doing so. Any task that was at all anxiety-producing — even resetting my MyChart password to communicate with my doctor — left me desperate for oxygen.
#2 55-year-old Kevin Harris
“Imagine your lungs turning solid. It’s like suffocating without holding your nose,” said Harris, who owns an auto body shop and typically runs 5 miles every day. “Every time I lay down, my breathing gets lower and lower. I thought my lungs would fail me. I was screaming for mercy and praying to God.”
#3 25-year-old Connor Reed
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A Welshman who caught the coronavirus in China has described how the deadly disease hit him “like a train” leaving him “suffocating” and in blinding pain for weeks. Connor Reed, from Llandudno, got ill while working as an English teacher in Wuhan. The 25-year-old described how it started as “just a sniffle” on November 25 – a month before authorities officially announced the virus – but over the next three-and-a-half weeks he got increasingly ill and was unable to move.
#4 39-year-old Tara Jane Langston
‘It’s like having glass in your lungs, it’s hard to explain, but every breath is a battle. ‘It’s absolutely horrible and I wouldn’t want to go through anything like this ever again. I’d been ill for about five days before I was taken to hospital in an ambulance. ‘I’d originally been diagnosed with a chest infection and given antibiotics and advised to take ibuprofen and paracetamol. I was taking about eight ibuprofen a day and they now think that that exacerbated the problem.
#5 A 12-year-old girl in Georgia named Emma
Emma, a 12-year-old girl, is “fighting for her life” in an Atlanta hospital after testing positive for the coronavirus, according to her cousin. Justin Anthony told CNN that Emma was diagnosed with pneumonia on March 15 and tested positive for coronavirus on Friday night. As of Saturday, she was on a ventilator and is currently in stable condition, Anthony said.
As you can see, this virus is not just hitting “old people” extremely hard.
But if you are above the age of 60, please understand that you at very high risk, and you need to stay away from public places for the foreseeable future.
I know that it can be hard to stay home day after day, but this is truly a very, very deadly virus.
At this point, even doctors and nurses are “scared to go to work”…
Doctors and nurses on the front lines of the fight against the coronavirus in the United States say it’s “the first time” they’ve been scared to go to work. With a shortage of personal protective equipment, some have resorted to using bandanas to cover their faces. “It’s the first time we’ve ever been truly scared to come to work, but despite being scared we are trained to save lives and we’re committed to doing that,” Dr. Cornelia Griggs, a surgeon in New York City, told “CBS This Morning.” “I’m embarrassed to say, but prior to this, my husband and I had never gotten around to writing a will, but this weekend that became one of our to-do list items.”
As I have been writing this article, over 2,000 more confirmed cases were added to the rapidly growing total here in the United States. And as I discussed yesterday, it looks like the U.S. is going to have a very high death rate just like we are seeing in western European countries such as Italy and Spain.
So please take this pandemic very seriously. A lot of Americans are going to die, and it is going to be a great national tragedy.
Please pray for those that have caught the virus and are deeply suffering. It is in our darkest moments that we need a miracle the most, and there are a whole lot of people out there that need one right now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--China’s economic slowdown and nascent recovery in charts

Shanghai composite stock index stood at 3115 on Jan 13 before China shutdown .
Then it fell to a short term bottom of 2746 on Feb 3 , recovered to 3071 on March 5 , before plummeting past it ’ s nadir now ( 2660 right now on March 23 ) .
Perhaps we ’ ll see parallels in the US stock market reaction to the scattered lockdowns and economic data to come ( sustained dead cat bounce from its brief bottom of sub 2200 in ES futures last night , followed by a plunge below 2000 on the SP500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubt , we are going to see a bounce ( likely starting tomorrow ) that heads up pretty fast and then plummets back down further when layoffs and more dire virus numbers appear .
We don ’ t know where the market will go , but one thing we do know is it almost never just immediately recovers from a bear/recession market .
We are going to see heavy up and down swings .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own due diligence .

by cefpodoxime
FT China economic activity index ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/china-economic-activity-indicator.svg?frame=webM
FT China subindices ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/china-economic-activity-indicator-subindices.svg?frame=webL
Shanghai composite stock index stood at 3115 on Jan 13 before China shutdown. Then it fell to a short term bottom of 2746 on Feb 3, recovered to 3071 on March 5, before plummeting past it’s nadir now (2660 right now on March 23).
Perhaps we’ll see parallels in the US stock market reaction to the scattered lockdowns and economic data to come (sustained dead cat bounce from its brief bottom of sub 2200 in ES futures last night, followed by a plunge below 2000 on the SP500 in a couple weeks)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
see also: www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Without a doubt, we are going to see a bounce (likely starting tomorrow) that heads up pretty fast and then plummets back down further when layoffs and more dire virus numbers appear.
We don’t know where the market will go, but one thing we do know is it almost never just immediately recovers from a bear/recession market. We are going to see heavy up and down swings.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--We are f*cked worse than I think many people realize

We are seriously f*cked with this corona virus- more than I think most of the world and country realizes .
I see people talking about how there is “ only one more week left of quarantine ” .
This is literally laughable .
We as a country are going to be in complete lock down in ( I ’ m guessing ) the next 3 weeks or so .
Look at italy for f*cks sake !
They have something like 60,000 people infected , but are posting like 800 deaths a day and 6,000 total deaths .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Can you imagine if that death rate transfers to the US ( which it will ) ?
Imagine if in the next 2-3 weeks due to exponential growth , at a minimum we will have 600k cases in the US ( as we are on a much steeper trajectory than Italy ) .
That could possibly translate to over 8,000 deaths per day and continue to rise .
And the worst part , this death rate will SKYROCKET as hospitals become overwhelmed .
Covid-19 can cause a bilateral pneumonia which makes it nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fine as ventilators allow for individuals to breath until the virus runs its course .
BUT , as Hospitals become overwhelmed with patients , they will have to prioritize which patients need treatment the most .
This will cause death rates to SOAR .
Like seriously what the f*ck are we going to do if the economy grinds to a halt for the next 2-3 months ?
It ’ s not like the president can say “ go back to work ” when the hospitals are overwhelmed and can ’ t handle the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ autists are saying “ oh , well look at China , they are recovering fine.
” Yeah .
You guys are retarded .
China is clearly dishing out misinformation .
You ’ re telling me a country that has over a billion people packaged like sardines and was the origin of the virus has less than 4,000 deaths ?
Hmm seems like something a country who runs over their citizens with tanks might say .
You guys are naive and retarded and it ’ s only going to get worse .
You think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couple months ?
Try 4 months from now when the stock market has dropped another 50 % and unemployment is at 60 % .
We are really f*cked unless one of the medicines they are testing works out .
They can ’ t just tell everyone to go back to work after a couple weeks of quarantine .
But at the same time , this economic halt until a vaccine comes out is simply unsustainable .
It will completely butt f*ck the entire world economy ( more than it already has ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ from that asteroid that ’ s suppose to “ just miss the earth ” some time in April .
We .
Are .
F*cked .

by andyb6789
We are seriously f*cked with this corona virus- more than I think most of the world and country realizes. I see people talking about how there is “only one more week left of quarantine”. This is literally laughable. We as a country are going to be in complete lock down in (I’m guessing) the next 3 weeks or so. Look at italy for f*cks sake! They have something like 60,000 people infected, but are posting like 800 deaths a day and 6,000 total deaths. That’s like a 10% death rate! Can you imagine if that death rate transfers to the US (which it will)?
Imagine if in the next 2-3 weeks due to exponential growth, at a minimum we will have 600k cases in the US (as we are on a much steeper trajectory than Italy). That could possibly translate to over 8,000 deaths per day and continue to rise. And the worst part, this death rate will SKYROCKET as hospitals become overwhelmed.
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Covid-19 can cause a bilateral pneumonia which makes it nearly impossible to breath. This is generally fine as ventilators allow for individuals to breath until the virus runs its course. BUT, as Hospitals become overwhelmed with patients, they will have to prioritize which patients need treatment the most. This will cause death rates to SOAR. Like seriously what the f*ck are we going to do if the economy grinds to a halt for the next 2-3 months? It’s not like the president can say “go back to work” when the hospitals are overwhelmed and can’t handle the influx patients.
And some of you autists are saying “oh, well look at China, they are recovering fine.” Yeah. You guys are retarded. China is clearly dishing out misinformation. You’re telling me a country that has over a billion people packaged like sardines and was the origin of the virus has less than 4,000 deaths? Hmm seems like something a country who runs over their citizens with tanks might say.
You guys are naive and retarded and it’s only going to get worse. You think we are bad now after just a couple months? Try 4 months from now when the stock market has dropped another 50% and unemployment is at 60%. We are really f*cked unless one of the medicines they are testing works out. They can’t just tell everyone to go back to work after a couple weeks of quarantine. But at the same time, this economic halt until a vaccine comes out is simply unsustainable. It will completely butt f*ck the entire world economy (more than it already has). Or maybe we’ll just die from that asteroid that’s suppose to “just miss the earth” some time in April. We. Are. F*cked.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Why Did Hundreds Of CEOs Resign Just Before The World Started Going Absolutely Crazy?

In the months prior to the most ferocious stock market crash in history and the eruption of the biggest public health crisis of our generation , we witnessed the biggest exodus of corporate CEOs that we have ever seen .
And as you will see below , corporate insiders also sold off billions of dollars worth of shares in their own companies just before the stock market imploded .
In life , timing can be everything , and sometimes people simply get lucky .
But it does seem odd that so many among the corporate elite would be so exceedingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
In this article I am not claiming to know the motivations of any of these individuals , but I am pointing out certain patterns that I believe are worth investigating .
One financial publication is using the phrase “ the great CEO exodus ” to describe the phenomenon that we have been witnessing .
It all started last year when chief executives started resigning in numbers unlike anything that we have ever seen before .
The following was published by NBC News last November… Chief executives are leaving in record numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stepping aside in the period from January through the end of October , according to new data released on Wednesday .
While it ’ s not unusual to see CEOs fleeing in the middle of a recession , it is noteworthy to see such a rash of executive exits amid robust corporate earnings and record stock market highs .
Last month , 172 chief executives left their jobs , according to executive placement firm Challenger , Gray & Christmas .
It ’ s the highest monthly number on record , and the year-to-date @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exits during the financial crisis .
By the end of the year , an all-time record high 1,480 CEOs had left their posts .
But to most people it seemed like the good times were still rolling at the end of 2019 .
Corporate profits were rising and the stock market was setting record high after record high .
Yes , there were lots of signs that the global economy was really slowing down , but most experts were not forecasting an imminent recession .
So why did so many chief executives suddenly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on ?
The following are just a few of the big name CEOs that chose to step down in 2019… Of course the mass exodus of chief executives did not end there .
In fact , a whopping 219 CEOs stepped down during the month of January 2020 alone .
By then , it was starting to become clear that the coronavirus that was ripping through China could potentially become a major global pandemic , and I certainly can understand why many among the corporate elite would choose to abandon ship at that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made absolutely absurd salaries for many years , and it is much easier to take the money and run than it is to stick around and steer a major corporation through the most difficult global crisis that any of us have ever experienced .
The following are just a few of the well known CEOs that have resigned so far in 2020… It is important for me to say that I do not have any special insight into the personal motivations of any of these individuals , and every situation is different .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite strange that we have seen such an unprecedented corporate exodus at such a critical moment in our history .
Meanwhile , top corporate executives were dumping billions of dollars worth of shares in their own companies just before the market completely cratered .
The following comes from the Wall Street Journal… In the stock market , you only make money if you get out in time , and many among the corporate elite seem to have impeccable timing .
Perhaps they just got really lucky .
Or perhaps they were reading my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to cause the global economy to shut down .
In any event , things worked out really well for those that were able to dump their stocks before it was too late .
And it turns out that several members of Congress were also selling stocks just before the market went nuts… Of course most ordinary Americans were not so “ lucky ” , and the financial losses for the country as a whole have been absolutely staggering .
The good news is that there was a tremendous rally on Wall Street on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temporary relief for investors .
But the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to escalate at an exponential rate all over the globe , and this crisis appears to be a long way from over .

by Michael Snyder
In the months prior to the most ferocious stock market crash in history and the eruption of the biggest public health crisis of our generation, we witnessed the biggest exodus of corporate CEOs that we have ever seen. And as you will see below, corporate insiders also sold off billions of dollars worth of shares in their own companies just before the stock market imploded. In life, timing can be everything, and sometimes people simply get lucky. But it does seem odd that so many among the corporate elite would be so exceedingly “lucky” all at the same time. In this article I am not claiming to know the motivations of any of these individuals, but I am pointing out certain patterns that I believe are worth investigating.
One financial publication is using the phrase “the great CEO exodus” to describe the phenomenon that we have been witnessing. It all started last year when chief executives started resigning in numbers unlike anything that we have ever seen before. The following was published by NBC News last November…
Chief executives are leaving in record numbers this year, with more than 1,332 stepping aside in the period from January through the end of October, according to new data released on Wednesday. While it’s not unusual to see CEOs fleeing in the middle of a recession, it is noteworthy to see such a rash of executive exits amid robust corporate earnings and record stock market highs. Last month, 172 chief executives left their jobs, according to executive placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. It’s the highest monthly number on record, and the year-to-date total outpaces even the wave of executive exits during the financial crisis.
By the end of the year, an all-time record high 1,480 CEOs had left their posts.
But to most people it seemed like the good times were still rolling at the end of 2019. Corporate profits were rising and the stock market was setting record high after record high.
Yes, there were lots of signs that the global economy was really slowing down, but most experts were not forecasting an imminent recession.
So why did so many chief executives suddenly decide that it was time to move on?
The following are just a few of the big name CEOs that chose to step down in 2019…
Dennis Muilenburg — Boeing
United Airlines — Oscar Munoz
Alphabet — Larry Page
Gap — Art Peck
McDonald’s — Steve Easterbrook
Wells Fargo — Tim Sloan
Under Armour — Kevin Plank
PG&E — Geisha Williams
Kraft Heinz — Bernardo Hees
HP — Dion Weisler
Bed, Bath & Beyond — Steven Temares
Warner Bros. — Kevin Tsujihara
Best Buy — Hubert Joly
New York Post — Jesse Angelo
Colgate-Palmolive — Ian Cook
MetLife — Steven Kandarian
eBay — Devin Wenig
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Nike — Mark Parker
Of course the mass exodus of chief executives did not end there.
In fact, a whopping 219 CEOs stepped down during the month of January 2020 alone.
By then, it was starting to become clear that the coronavirus that was ripping through China could potentially become a major global pandemic, and I certainly can understand why many among the corporate elite would choose to abandon ship at that moment.
Some of these CEOs have made absolutely absurd salaries for many years, and it is much easier to take the money and run than it is to stick around and steer a major corporation through the most difficult global crisis that any of us have ever experienced.
The following are just a few of the well known CEOs that have resigned so far in 2020…
Bob Iger, CEO of Disney
Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM
Harley-Davidson CEO Matt Levatich
T-Mobile’s CEO John Legere
LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner
Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga
Keith Block, co-CEO of Salesforce
Tidjane Thiam, CEO of Credit Suisse
Hulu CEO Randy Freer
It is important for me to say that I do not have any special insight into the personal motivations of any of these individuals, and every situation is different.
But I do think that it is quite strange that we have seen such an unprecedented corporate exodus at such a critical moment in our history.
Meanwhile, top corporate executives were dumping billions of dollars worth of shares in their own companies just before the market completely cratered. The following comes from the Wall Street Journal…
Top executives at U.S.-traded companies sold a total of roughly $9.2 billion in shares of their own companies between the start of February and the end of last week, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. The selling saved the executives—including many in the financial industry—potential losses totaling $1.9 billion, according to the analysis, as the S&P 500 stock index plunged about 30% from its peak on Feb. 19 through the close of trading March 20.
In the stock market, you only make money if you get out in time, and many among the corporate elite seem to have impeccable timing.
Perhaps they just got really lucky. Or perhaps they were reading my articles and understood that COVID-19 was going to cause the global economy to shut down. In any event, things worked out really well for those that were able to dump their stocks before it was too late.
And it turns out that several members of Congress were also selling stocks just before the market went nuts…
Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California and three of her Senate colleagues reported selling off stocks worth millions of dollars in the days before the coronavirus outbreak crashed the market, according to reports. The data is listed on a U.S. Senate website containing financial disclosures from Senate members.
Of course most ordinary Americans were not so “lucky”, and the financial losses for the country as a whole have been absolutely staggering.
The good news is that there was a tremendous rally on Wall Street on Tuesday, and that will provide some temporary relief for investors.
But the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to escalate at an exponential rate all over the globe, and this crisis appears to be a long way from over.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Share Buybacks Are Toast for 2020: Oops, that was the $4.6 Trillion Driver of the Stock-Market-Bubbl

Share Buybacks Are Toast for 2020: Oops, that was the $4.6 Trillion Driver of the Stock-Market-Bubble

Even after the bottom is perceived to be in , “ buybacks may be slow to come back ” as companies struggle for cash amid potential government restrictions on buybacks and their dismal public image : S & P Dow Jones Indices .
Share buybacks by companies in the S & P 500 Index in the fourth quarter 2019 , before the Coronavirus was even a factor , fell 18 % from a year earlier , to $ 181.6 billion , after falling 13 % and 14 % year-over-year in the prior two quarters , from the blistering tax-cut records @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & P Dow Jones Indices today .
For the full year , buybacks fell 9.6 % from the tax-cut record in 2018 , to $ 729 billion in 2019 , the second highest annual total ever .
Since the beginning of 2012 , these companies have bought back $ 4.6 trillion with a T of their own shares .
To provide a comparison of how big this T-number really is : It blows past the magnitude of Germany ’ s annual GDP .
Share buybacks were considered illegal market manipulation until 1982 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provided corporations a “ safe harbor ” to buy back their own shares .
The only thing that share buybacks are supposed to accomplish is to manipulate up share prices .
The four biggest US banks were among the 10 biggest share buyback queens in terms of the amount of capital they wasted on share buybacks in Q4 2019 .
Combined they incinerated $ 95 billion in capital last year , and $ 275 billion over the past five years ( if your smartphone clips the 6-column table , slide the table to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Financial Crisis 2 has kicked in , and the share buybacks of these four banks along with the share buybacks of other banks have dropped to zero , along with many other companies that are now facing a liquidity crisis .
The banks could have used those funds to shore up their capital , which would have been useful now as the bubbles in corporate debt and commercial real estate , that the Fed was so worried about , are coming unglued .
But aside from generating fees for Wall Street , share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What would have happened in the US economy if that $ 4.6 trillion in capital that companies incinerated by buying back their own shares since 2012 would have been invested in equipment , structures , expansion projects , and people , or would have been used to reduce debt so that companies , such as Boeing and the airlines , wouldn ’ t be in such a precarious situation today ?
That capital that was incinerated by companies buying back their own shares would come in handy for companies that are now begging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an even larger extent from the Federal Reserve .
“ COVID-19 has significantly changed the 2020 landscape , as dividends are under pressure and buybacks appear to be gasping for air , ” said the report by S & P Dow Jones Indices , adding that “ buybacks must now compete with other corporate priorities as uncertainty over liquidity is at its highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
” The report says that for 2020 , most companies have moved buybacks “ to the backburner , ” having “ reordered their short-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the length of virus and depth of the economic impact.
” For Q2 2020 , buybacks are “ expected to be dismal , ” and for the rest of the year , “ buybacks may see a complete reversal of the 2018 buyback bonanza.
” And the report by S & P Dow Jones Indices adds , even after the bottom is perceived to be in , “ buybacks may be slow to come back ” as companies , struggling for cash , limit spending amid potential government restrictions on buybacks and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buyer in the stock market , the one that never sells and only buys , the relentless bid that wants to buy high to drive the share price even higher , well , this relentless mega-buyer that blew $ 1.5 trillion over the past two years buying the shares of the largest companies in the S & P 500 got burned and , now screaming in pain , jumped away from the market at the worst possible moment .

Even after the bottom is perceived to be in, “buybacks may be slow to come back” as companies struggle for cash amid potential government restrictions on buybacks and their dismal public image: S&P Dow Jones Indices.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET:
Share buybacks by companies in the S&P 500 Index in the fourth quarter 2019, before the Coronavirus was even a factor, fell 18% from a year earlier, to $181.6 billion, after falling 13% and 14% year-over-year in the prior two quarters, from the blistering tax-cut records set in 2018, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices today. For the full year, buybacks fell 9.6% from the tax-cut record in 2018, to $729 billion in 2019, the second highest annual total ever.
Since the beginning of 2012, these companies have bought back $4.6 trillion with a T of their own shares. To provide a comparison of how big this T-number really is: It blows past the magnitude of Germany’s annual GDP.
Share buybacks were considered illegal market manipulation until 1982, when the SEC issued Rule 10b-18 which provided corporations a “safe harbor” to buy back their own shares. The only thing that share buybacks are supposed to accomplish is to manipulate up share prices.
The four biggest US banks were among the 10 biggest share buyback queens in terms of the amount of capital they wasted on share buybacks in Q4 2019. Combined they incinerated $95 billion in capital last year, and $275 billion over the past five years (if your smartphone clips the 6-column table, slide the table to the left):
Share Buybacks, in billion $ Top 20 in Q4 2019 Q4 2019 Year 2019 5-year total
1 Apple [AAPL] 22.1 81.7 264.3 2 Bank of America [BAC] 7.7 28.1 68.5 3 Wells Fargo [WFC] 7.4 24.8 73.4 4 Bristol-Myers Squibb [BMY] 7.0 7.3 10.3 5 JPMorgan Chase [JPM] 6.8 24.0 74.1 6 Alphabet [GOOG] 6.1 18.4 37.8 7 Microsoft [MSFT] 5.2 19.5 77.5 8 Citigroup [C] 5.1 18.0 58.9 9 Oracle [ORCL] 5.0 26.9 77.4 10 Intel [INTC] 3.5 13.6 34.4 Total, 4 Banks: 27.0 95.0 274.9 Total
75.9 262.3 776.8
But now, Financial Crisis 2 has kicked in, and the share buybacks of these four banks along with the share buybacks of other banks have dropped to zero, along with many other companies that are now facing a liquidity crisis.
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The banks could have used those funds to shore up their capital, which would have been useful now as the bubbles in corporate debt and commercial real estate, that the Fed was so worried about, are coming unglued.
But aside from generating fees for Wall Street, share buybacks do zero for the economy. What would have happened in the US economy if that $4.6 trillion in capital that companies incinerated by buying back their own shares since 2012 would have been invested in equipment, structures, expansion projects, and people, or would have been used to reduce debt so that companies, such as Boeing and the airlines, wouldn’t be in such a precarious situation today?
That capital that was incinerated by companies buying back their own shares would come in handy for companies that are now begging for and getting mega-bailouts from taxpayers and to an even larger extent from the Federal Reserve.
Now what?
“COVID-19 has significantly changed the 2020 landscape, as dividends are under pressure and buybacks appear to be gasping for air,” said the report by S&P Dow Jones Indices, adding that “buybacks must now compete with other corporate priorities as uncertainty over liquidity is at its highest since the 2008 financial crisis.”
The report says that for 2020, most companies have moved buybacks “to the backburner,” having “reordered their short-term priorities:”
“Controlling liquidity
“Maintaining business operations and retaining employees
“Uncertainty over the length of virus and depth of the economic impact.”
For Q2 2020, buybacks are “expected to be dismal,” and for the rest of the year, “buybacks may see a complete reversal of the 2018 buyback bonanza.” And the report by S&P Dow Jones Indices adds, even after the bottom is perceived to be in, “buybacks may be slow to come back” as companies, struggling for cash, limit spending amid potential government restrictions on buybacks and their dismal public image.
So the biggest buyer in the stock market, the one that never sells and only buys, the relentless bid that wants to buy high to drive the share price even higher, well, this relentless mega-buyer that blew $1.5 trillion over the past two years buying the shares of the largest companies in the S&P 500 got burned and, now screaming in pain, jumped away from the market at the worst possible moment.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Nancy Pelosi is prioritizing the Green New Deal over rescue aid for American families and small busi

Nancy Pelosi is prioritizing the Green New Deal over rescue aid for American families and small businesses. What in the world does that have to do with COVID-19?!

Nancy Pelosi is prioritizing the Green New Deal over rescue aid for American families and small businesses .
What in @ @ @ @ @ to do with COVID-19 ?
!
pic.twitter.com/QBcv1Yxixm

Nancy Pelosi is prioritizing the Green New Deal over rescue aid for American families and small businesses.
Pelosi tanked bipartisan negotiations to push solar and wind tax credits.
What in the world does that have to do with COVID-19?! pic.twitter.com/QBcv1Yxixm
— Sen. Marsha Blackburn (@MarshaBlackburn) March 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Direxion Cuts Leverage on 10 Funds to 200%, Closes Eight Others

Effective May 19 2020 , Direxion is updating the objectives of 10 leveraged ETF , some of them Gold based @ @ @ @ @ the statement from Direxion : www.direxion.com/press-release/direxion-changes-objectives-of-ten-leveraged-funds-to-address-extreme-market-conditions-while-also-closing-eight-funds-due-to-limited-interest-since-launch

Effective May 19 2020, Direxion is updating the objectives of 10 leveraged ETF, some of them Gold based.
Originally found the article on Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-23/ten-leveraged-direxion-funds-cut-exposure-amid-global-turmoil?utm_medium=deeplink
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Here’s also the statement from Direxion: www.direxion.com/press-release/direxion-changes-objectives-of-ten-leveraged-funds-to-address-extreme-market-conditions-while-also-closing-eight-funds-due-to-limited-interest-since-launch


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Really exemplary primer from @pearkes on all the Fed facilities in his evening note Monday.

Really exemplary primer from @ pearkes on all the Fed facilities in his evening note Monday .
This is just @ @ @ @ @ table but each one gets amazing detail .
pic.twitter.com/e7PCYndM0E

Really exemplary primer from @pearkes on all the Fed facilities in his evening note Monday.
This is just the quick and dirty summary table but each one gets amazing detail. pic.twitter.com/e7PCYndM0E
— Luke Kawa (@LJKawa) March 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--People think it is going to end soon.. Italian govt is thinking to delay the end of the lockdown to

People think it is going to end soon.. Italian govt is thinking to delay the end of the lockdown to July… Hong Kong is seeing new coronavirus cases

People think it is going to end soon.. Italian govt is thinking to delay the end of the lockdown to @ @ @ @ @ seeing new coronavirus cases , indicating that `` quarantines and social distancing must continue well @ @ @ @ @ cases , if another round of infections is to be avoided . ''
This is @ @ @ @ @ folks .
t.co/TZ5QnIlVpK

People think it is going to end soon.. Italian govt is thinking to delay the end of the lockdown to July t.co/TnB0KJIHh2
Hong Kong is seeing new coronavirus cases, indicating that "quarantines and social distancing must continue well beyond the initial wave of cases, if another round of infections is to be avoided." This is going way beyond Easter, folks. t.co/TZ5QnIlVpK
— Ramez Naam (@ramez) March 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--The idiots just keep piling up. It is totally healthy that the markets gave up 4 years of growth in

The idiots just keep piling up. It is totally healthy that the markets gave up 4 years of growth in 1 month. 200 of the S&P 500 companies cannot pay interest on their debt. BUY BUY BUY

Moody ’ s Investors Service wants to let corporate-bond investors know one thing in no uncertain terms : Ratings actions are coming .
And soon .
That is , if they haven ’ t already .
The credit-rating company has already dropped dozens of companies in the past week , ever since it became clear that the double whammy of the coronavirus outbreak and the oil-price shock could decimate the outlook for certain industries .
On March 17 , it cut Lufthansa to Ba1 , the highest speculative-grade rating , from Baa3 , citing “ a severe and extensive credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One day later , Occidental Petroleum Corp. was similarly dropped to Ba1 from Baa3 , making the crude oil and natural gas company the biggest “ fallen angel ” yet in this downgrade cycle .
In a March 19 interview , Anne Van Praagh and Christina Padgett at Moody ’ s told me to expect to see more action in the next couple of weeks as analysts undertake a global review of ratings and go company by company through the sectors most at risk , like oil and gas , gambling , passenger @ @ @ @ @ @

Moody’s Investors Service wants to let corporate-bond investors know one thing in no uncertain terms: Ratings actions are coming. And soon.
That is, if they haven’t already. The credit-rating company has already dropped dozens of companies in the past week, ever since it became clear that the double whammy of the coronavirus outbreak and the oil-price shock could decimate the outlook for certain industries. On March 17, it cut Lufthansa to Ba1, the highest speculative-grade rating, from Baa3, citing “a severe and extensive credit shock” from those two factors. One day later, Occidental Petroleum Corp. was similarly dropped to Ba1 from Baa3, making the crude oil and natural gas company the biggest “fallen angel” yet in this downgrade cycle. In a March 19 interview, Anne Van Praagh and Christina Padgett at Moody’s told me to expect to see more action in the next couple of weeks as analysts undertake a global review of ratings and go company by company through the sectors most at risk, like oil and gas, gambling, passenger airlines, restaurants and lodging.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--“40% of U.S. households don’t have $400 for an emergency expense, and 53% don’t have any emergency s

“40% of U.S. households don’t have $400 for an emergency expense, and 53% don’t have any emergency savings.”

`` 40 % of U.S. households don ’ t have $ 400 for an emergency expense , and 53 % @ @ @ @ @ emergency savings . ''
On a brighter note , Greenspan , Bernanke , Yellen , @ @ @ @ @ all have plenty of savings .
t.co/eMGhikdNZP pic.twitter.com/iXe1ev5WuC

"40% of U.S. households don’t have $400 for an emergency expense, and 53% don’t have any emergency savings."
On a brighter note, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Paulson, Geithner and Powell all have plenty of savings. t.co/eMGhikdNZP pic.twitter.com/iXe1ev5WuC
— Rudy Havenstein, 211 in progress. (@RudyHavenstein) March 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--We’re going to put Weimar Germany to shame when this is all over. And $6 trillion won’t be the end o

We’re going to put Weimar Germany to shame when this is all over. And $6 trillion won’t be the end of it…

We 're going to put Weimar Germany to shame when this is all over .
And $ 6 trillion wo @ @ @ @ @ it…t.co/p4P6vQOymm

We're going to put Weimar Germany to shame when this is all over. And $6 trillion won't be the end of it…t.co/p4P6vQOymm
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) March 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--The crash was coming with or without the coronavirus pandemic. It started from record highs, histori

The crash was coming with or without the coronavirus pandemic. It started from record highs, historic leverage & the most fundamentally over-valued composite of multiples ever, higher than 1929!

Crescat Capital ’ s commentary for the month of March 2020 , titled , “ This Is It ” , discussing the economic crisis and the repo liquidity crisis .
Many of you understandably have been asking for more frequent performance and positioning updates now that we are in a bona fide financial crisis .
We are happy to oblige .
The good news is that since the market top on February 19 and through last Friday , Crescat Global Macro Fund LP is up approximately 40.5 % net while Crescat Long/Short Hedge Fund LP is up 34.3 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 Index has declined 31.8 % including dividends : This is it !
It ’ s the market and economic downturn we have been preparing for since late 2017 .
That ’ s when we first showed that the US stock market was in historic bubble territory across a composite of valuation and leverage measures .
We believe the swiftness of the decline now unfolding is a strong justification for why we insisted on staying positioned net-short ahead of it in our hedge funds .
This allowed our clients to reap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and reposition under severe stress .
Our macro model is what guided us .
We adopted a bearish view and significant tactical net short equity position in our hedge funds in late 2017 .
That positioning enabled us to have two of the world ’ s top performing hedge funds in 2018 .
Then came 2019 .
The Fed curtailed its interest rates hikes after the Q4 2018 slip in the markets .
The downturn in the business cycle that we were expecting failed to materialize in 2019 .
We certainly did not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highs last year .
Our 16-factor macro model and many other indicators continued to warn us that the market was extremely overvalued and the economic expansion overextended .
After the US Treasury yield curve inverted more than 70 % in August amidst a major repo liquidity crisis , we were as convinced as ever that a significant bear market was imminent .
August indeed was a big month for Crescat as the Chinese yuan broke down , breaching the 7 level on USDCNY , and our long precious metals positions screamed higher , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Century .
Global equity shorts , including US stocks , are the third leg .
But in the wake of a repo liquidity crisis , late-cycle bulls twisted the new Fed money printing into an excuse to drive the stock market even higher .
From October onward , the S & P 500 just kept melting up to new highs .
All the while , corporate earnings in the US were already turning down and China was hurtling toward recession .
The economic downturn was so threatening that Trump and Xi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal to try to stem the downward spiral .
That only made stocks go higher .

via valuewalk:
Crescat Capital’s commentary for the month of March 2020, titled, “This Is It”, discussing the economic crisis and the repo liquidity crisis.
Dear Investors:
Many of you understandably have been asking for more frequent performance and positioning updates now that we are in a bona fide financial crisis. We are happy to oblige.
Crescat Fund’s Performance
The good news is that since the market top on February 19 and through last Friday, Crescat Global Macro Fund LP is up approximately 40.5% net while Crescat Long/Short Hedge Fund LP is up 34.3%. At the same time, the S&P 500 Index has declined 31.8% including dividends:
This is it! It’s the market and economic downturn we have been preparing for since late 2017. That’s when we first showed that the US stock market was in historic bubble territory across a composite of valuation and leverage measures. We believe the swiftness of the decline now unfolding is a strong justification for why we insisted on staying positioned net-short ahead of it in our hedge funds. This allowed our clients to reap the benefits while others scramble to unwind and reposition under severe stress. Our macro model is what guided us.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We adopted a bearish view and significant tactical net short equity position in our hedge funds in late 2017. That positioning enabled us to have two of the world’s top performing hedge funds in 2018.
The Major Repo Liquidity Crisis Of 2019
Then came 2019. The Fed curtailed its interest rates hikes after the Q4 2018 slip in the markets. The downturn in the business cycle that we were expecting failed to materialize in 2019. We certainly did not expect the market to push to new highs last year. Our 16-factor macro model and many other indicators continued to warn us that the market was extremely overvalued and the economic expansion overextended. After the US Treasury yield curve inverted more than 70% in August amidst a major repo liquidity crisis, we were as convinced as ever that a significant bear market was imminent. August indeed was a big month for Crescat as the Chinese yuan broke down, breaching the 7 level on USDCNY, and our long precious metals positions screamed higher, two key legs of our Macro Trade of the Century.
Global equity shorts, including US stocks, are the third leg. But in the wake of a repo liquidity crisis, late-cycle bulls twisted the new Fed money printing into an excuse to drive the stock market even higher. From October onward, the S&P 500 just kept melting up to new highs. All the while, corporate earnings in the US were already turning down and China was hurtling toward recession. The economic downturn was so threatening that Trump and Xi agreed to a panic Phase 1 trade deal to try to stem the downward spiral. That only made stocks go higher.
…
…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Don’t be misguided, markets bottom will be signalled by low VIX and actual economic data, not huge r

Don’t be misguided, markets bottom will be signalled by low VIX and actual economic data, not huge rallies

Today is pure optimism and the reaction to good news ( or what looks like good news ) .
Fiscal stimulus is anything but certain by tomorrow , FED is doing unlimited QE , and Trump thinks the US can open up by Easter .
Fiscal stimulus takes time to kick in and for many people and businesses comes a week too late .
It helps putting money in the pockets but doesn ’ t suddenly restart the economic apparatus -only consumer and investment confidence do that .
Unlimited QE is like fishing with dynamite : quick results but a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noting that this is not a financial crisis but a public health crisis with financial implications .
The FED can at best alleviate some symptoms but that ’ s it .
The US is not testing nearly as fast as Korea ( 17 times less tests per capita when I checked this weekend ) , nor is it taking the lockdown serious .
Unless a million tests appear by this weekend so the virus can be traced and narrowed down , Trump has to face the reality that he either locks down fully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imaginable proportions in less than a month by opening .
So in my opinion , how does a bottom look like ?
20-30 % drop from the current level , with decreasing volatility starting in one or two weeks when the spread of the virus becomes more clear and the economic data hits us hard .
Shy but ever more common gains and then more big rallies than drops ( but not 10 % if that ’ s what you want ) .
We ’ ve only had one VIX spike , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of examples of fake rallies like today ’ s and the first Friday of the month .
The sp500 was grossly overpriced in February , so whatever it fell until the first days of March was barely an overdue correction .
Now you have to input recession to get the true dimension of the collapse .
Disclaimer : this is just my opinion and I ’ m not offering investment advice

by coffee-trader
Today is pure optimism and the reaction to good news (or what looks like good news). Fiscal stimulus is anything but certain by tomorrow, FED is doing unlimited QE, and Trump thinks the US can open up by Easter.
Fiscal stimulus takes time to kick in and for many people and businesses comes a week too late. It helps putting money in the pockets but doesn’t suddenly restart the economic apparatus -only consumer and investment confidence do that.
Unlimited QE is like fishing with dynamite: quick results but a lot of underlying damage. lts worth noting that this is not a financial crisis but a public health crisis with financial implications. The FED can at best alleviate some symptoms but that’s it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The US is not testing nearly as fast as Korea (17 times less tests per capita when I checked this weekend), nor is it taking the lockdown serious. Unless a million tests appear by this weekend so the virus can be traced and narrowed down, Trump has to face the reality that he either locks down fully now or blows this crisis out of imaginable proportions in less than a month by opening.
So in my opinion, how does a bottom look like? 20-30% drop from the current level, with decreasing volatility starting in one or two weeks when the spread of the virus becomes more clear and the economic data hits us hard. Shy but ever more common gains and then more big rallies than drops (but not 10% if that’s what you want).
We’ve only had one VIX spike, in 2008 there were 3. Also plenty of examples of fake rallies like today’s and the first Friday of the month. The sp500 was grossly overpriced in February, so whatever it fell until the first days of March was barely an overdue correction. Now you have to input recession to get the true dimension of the collapse.
Disclaimer: this is just my opinion and I’m not offering investment advice


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--It’s margin call day everywhere, wow

It’s margin call day everywhere, wow

$ 425M in World Bank Catastrophe Bonds Set To Default If Coronavirus Declared A Pandemic By June In 2017 , @ @ @ @ @ new way to raise money : Pandemic Emergency Financing bonds .
Over $ 425 million @ @ @ @ @ which bet against a global outbreak of infectious diseases and will default if WHO declares @ @ @ @ @ were sold by the World Bank in its first-ever issuance of catastrophe bonds .
In @ @ @ @ @ , investors would be paid a healthy annualized return .
Meanwhile , the World Bank @ @ @ @ @ insure itself against the risk of a global outbreak .
“ As an investor , @ @ @ @ @ lose money , ” said Chin Liu , a portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer , @ @ @ @ @ the bonds as a way to diversify the company ’ s $ 1 billion catastrophe @ @ @ @ @ , we also understand if it ’ s unfortunately triggered , it benefits every single @ @ @ @ @ to keep the virus controlled .
”

Guess where is it going now pic.twitter.com/MyIKI8Qo8O — A.Urban (@AlessioUrban) March 24, 2020
BREAKING – Delta Airlines credit rating cut to junk by S&P (CNBC) — Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) March 24, 2020
They spoke of minus 25% GDP after 2 years and a recession comparable to the Great Depression t.co/0UdjhyIlhn — Richard Werner (@scientificecon) March 24, 2020
This headline was only a matter of time, and probably not the last one … *BROKERAGE ED&F FACES MOUNTING MARGIN CALLS ON MORTGAGE STRESS — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 24, 2020
it's margin call day everywhere, wow *MFA FINANCIAL RECEIVED AN UNUSUALLY HIGH NUMBER OF MARGIN CALLS; DID NOT MEET MARGIN CALLS AS OF MARCH 23 AND DOESN'T EXPECT TO FUND FUTURE MARGIN CALLS — Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) March 24, 2020
If these fuckers get bailed out, I will know that there is no limit to the robbery we are witnessing before our very own eyes. Let them bankrupt, seize all assets including those of boar members BOEING CEO SAYS IF THE GOVT WANTS A STAKE IN THE COMPANY, HE DOESN'T WANT IT'S HELP — xTrends (@xtrends) March 24, 2020
$425M in World Bank Catastrophe Bonds Set To Default If Coronavirus Declared A Pandemic By June
In 2017, the World Bank designed a new way to raise money: Pandemic Emergency Financing bonds. Over $425 million worth of such bonds, which bet against a global outbreak of infectious diseases and will default if WHO declares the coronavirus a pandemic, were sold by the World Bank in its first-ever issuance of catastrophe bonds. In the event of no pandemic, investors would be paid a healthy annualized return. Meanwhile, the World Bank could use the bonds to insure itself against the risk of a global outbreak.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“As an investor, we do not want to lose money,” said Chin Liu, a portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer, a Boston-based firm that purchased the bonds as a way to diversify the company’s $1 billion catastrophe fund. “But then, we also understand if it’s unfortunately triggered, it benefits every single person, including ourselves, to keep the virus controlled.”
www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/425m-in-world-bank-catastrophe-bonds-set-to-default-if-coronavirus-declared-a-pandemic-by-june


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Is China Accelerating The Bankruptcy Of The United States?

As the world ’ s rapt attention is fixated on the pandemic , an economic and financial tsunami is just @ @ @ @ @ on our lives from here forward .
What will become of our jobs , our @ @ @ @ @ savings , our investments and pensions , our retirement accounts , our freedoms , and @ @ @ @ @ in the future ?
What can we do to protect ourselves and our families ?
@ @ @ @ @ trend-trading coach , and author of “ Bankruptcy of Our Nation , ” returns to @ @ @ @ @ Preppers to share his analysis of our convulsing economic landscape , and what we can @ @ @ @ @ in it .

Jerry Robinson interviewed by Dunagun Kaiser on Reluctant Preppers
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As the world’s rapt attention is fixated on the pandemic, an economic and financial tsunami is just starting to wreak unfathomable havoc on our lives from here forward. What will become of our jobs, our homes, our earnings and savings, our investments and pensions, our retirement accounts, our freedoms, and our society, now and in the future? What can we do to protect ourselves and our families?
Jerry Robinson, economist, trend-trading coach, and author of “Bankruptcy of Our Nation,” returns to Liberty and Finance / Reluctant Preppers to share his analysis of our convulsing economic landscape, and what we can do to live and prosper in it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Leveraged Loans Blow Out – Distressed Corporate Debt Spikes

This is the moment when yield-chasing turns into a massacre .
Leveraged loans – they ’ re issued by junk-rated overleveraged companies with insufficient cash flows – are part of the gigantic pile of risky corporate debt that is now being brutally repriced as concerns over credit risk ( the risk of default ) are finally bubbling to the surface .
Since February 22 , the S & P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index , which tracks the prices of the largest leveraged loans , has plunged 20 % : The index is another example of how in these crazy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bubble collided with the coronavirus , ever more financial metrics are violating the WOLF STREET beer mug dictum that “ Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line.
” Leveraged loans are risky and murky .
And they ’ re a big pile : about $ 1.2 trillion of US-originated leveraged loans , up 50 % from $ 800 billion in 2015 .
These loans are traded in slices like securities or are packaged into highly rated Collateralized Loan Obligations ( CLOs ) .
But for years , investors had the hots for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for yield , in a world of interest rate repression .
These companies are often owned by private equity firms that had acquired them through leveraged buyouts , during the process of which they loaded up the companies with debt .
In addition , PE firms extracted special dividends from their companies , funded by leveraged loans , which is a form of asset stripping .
This leaves the company more leveraged and more precarious and more likely to topple .
But who cares ?
Those were the good times and the chase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Bank of England , the ECB , the Bank of Japan , etc.
, they have all warned about leveraged loans .
But they don ’ t regulate them because central banks are not securities regulators .
And securities regulators , such as the SEC , consider them loans and not securities , and they don ’ t regulate them either .
And no one knows into whose balance sheets leveraged loans can blow holes .
But now they ’ re blowing holes into balance sheets .
Leveraged loans that trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considered “ distressed ” – and now 38 % of the leveraged loans trade below that distressed level , up from 10 % on March 13 , and up from 2 % a year ago , according to LCD by S & P Global : During the peak of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis , 81 % of loans were priced below the 80 level .
At the current rate of progress , the leveraged loan market will soon catch up with it .
But as LCD notes , the magnitude is different : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 583 billion of leveraged loans outstanding ; with 81 % of them trading at distressed levels , there were $ 472 billion in distressed loans .
Now , there are about $ 1.2 trillion in leveraged loans outstanding ; with 38 % of them trading at distressed levels , there are $ 446 billion in distressed loans – nearly the same as during Financial Crisis 1 , but we ’ re just a few weeks into it .
And LCD reported that the average bid of the S & P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dollar at Friday ’ s close .
These are the 10 most distressed sectors by the percentage of loans that trade below 80 cents on the dollar as of Friday at the close – and given the current mess , there are not a lot of surprises on this list : And over the five trading days ended March 18 , these were the top losers by sector , in terms of price drops of their leveraged loans , according to LCD : Companies whose loans trade at distressed levels have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet their cash flow needs , pay interest , and pay off maturing debts .
But these companies have cash flows that are not adequate to service their debts – which is one of the reasons they ’ re junk-rated in the first place .
And when corporate debt blows up , it has an immediate impact on the real economy : At that point , these companies have to restructure their debts either in bankruptcy court or outside of it , which nearly always leads to layoffs , cost cuts , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through the rest of the economy , thereby acerbating the downturn .
The Fed has pointed out this risk in its financial stability reports .
But instead of tamping down on rampant yield chasing and on the corporate debt bubble by raising short-term rates to something like two percentage points above the rate of inflation by 2015 and unloading the pile of securities on its balance sheet to bring up long-term rates , the Fed further encouraged it all with its loosey-goosey monetary policies .
So now here we go again .

This is the moment when yield-chasing turns into a massacre.
Leveraged loans – they’re issued by junk-rated overleveraged companies with insufficient cash flows – are part of the gigantic pile of risky corporate debt that is now being brutally repriced as concerns over credit risk (the risk of default) are finally bubbling to the surface. Since February 22, the S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index, which tracks the prices of the largest leveraged loans, has plunged 20%:
The index is another example of how in these crazy times, when the most splendid Everything Bubble collided with the coronavirus, ever more financial metrics are violating the WOLF STREET beer mug dictum that “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line.”
Leveraged loans are risky and murky. And they’re a big pile: about $1.2 trillion of US-originated leveraged loans, up 50% from $800 billion in 2015. These loans are traded in slices like securities or are packaged into highly rated Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). But for years, investors had the hots for them, driven by their relentless chase for yield, in a world of interest rate repression.
These companies are often owned by private equity firms that had acquired them through leveraged buyouts, during the process of which they loaded up the companies with debt. In addition, PE firms extracted special dividends from their companies, funded by leveraged loans, which is a form of asset stripping. This leaves the company more leveraged and more precarious and more likely to topple. But who cares? Those were the good times and the chase for yield was on.
The Fed, the Bank of England, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, etc., they have all warned about leveraged loans. But they don’t regulate them because central banks are not securities regulators. And securities regulators, such as the SEC, consider them loans and not securities, and they don’t regulate them either. And no one knows into whose balance sheets leveraged loans can blow holes. But now they’re blowing holes into balance sheets.
Leveraged loans that trade below 80 cents on the dollar are considered “distressed” – and now 38% of the leveraged loans trade below that distressed level, up from 10% on March 13, and up from 2% a year ago, according to LCD by S&P Global:
During the peak of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis, 81% of loans were priced below the 80 level. At the current rate of progress, the leveraged loan market will soon catch up with it. But as LCD notes, the magnitude is different:
Back then, there were only $583 billion of leveraged loans outstanding; with 81% of them trading at distressed levels, there were $472 billion in distressed loans.
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Now, there are about $1.2 trillion in leveraged loans outstanding; with 38% of them trading at distressed levels, there are $446 billion in distressed loans – nearly the same as during Financial Crisis 1, but we’re just a few weeks into it.
And LCD reported that the average bid of the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index had plunged to just 78.36 cents on the dollar at Friday’s close.
These are the 10 most distressed sectors by the percentage of loans that trade below 80 cents on the dollar as of Friday at the close – and given the current mess, there are not a lot of surprises on this list:
Air transport (98%) Oil and gas (81%) Brick & mortar retailers (75%) Aerospace and defense (69%) Leisure (68%) Hotels, motels, casinos (68%) Nonferrous metals and minerals (62%) Automotive (58%) Chemicals, plastics (44%) Beverage and tobacco (43%)
And over the five trading days ended March 18, these were the top losers by sector, in terms of price drops of their leveraged loans, according to LCD:
Air transport: -15.4% Oil & Gas: -15.2% Lodging & casinos -14.5% Movies, Leisure goods, activities: -14.2% Nonferrous metals and minerals: -14.2%
Companies whose loans trade at distressed levels have a very difficult time borrowing new money to meet their cash flow needs, pay interest, and pay off maturing debts. But these companies have cash flows that are not adequate to service their debts – which is one of the reasons they’re junk-rated in the first place.
And when corporate debt blows up, it has an immediate impact on the real economy: At that point, these companies have to restructure their debts either in bankruptcy court or outside of it, which nearly always leads to layoffs, cost cuts, and slashed capital expenditures, which then ripple through the rest of the economy, thereby acerbating the downturn.
The Fed has pointed out this risk in its financial stability reports. But instead of tamping down on rampant yield chasing and on the corporate debt bubble by raising short-term rates to something like two percentage points above the rate of inflation by 2015 and unloading the pile of securities on its balance sheet to bring up long-term rates, the Fed further encouraged it all with its loosey-goosey monetary policies. So now here we go again.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--The first business surveys about this economic depression appear

This morning has seen the first actual signals of the scale of the economic slow down going on .
One of the problems with official economic data is the time lag before we get it and this has been exacerbated by the fact that this has been an economic contraction on speed ( LSD ) .
By the time they tell us how bad it has been we may be in quite a different world !
It is always a battle between accuracy and timeliness for economic data .
Thus eyes will have turned to the business surveys released this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japan earlier and brace yourselves .
The composite output index was at 35.8 which indicates an annualised fall in GDP ( Gross Domestic Product ) approaching 8 % should it continue .
There was a split between manufacturing ( 44.8 ) and services ( 32.7 ) but not the way we have got used to .
The manufacturing number was the worst since April 2009 and the services one was the worst since the series began in 2007 .
Next in the series came La Belle France and we needed to brace ourselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come .
There are obvious fears about employment and hence unemployment .
I also noted this as I have my concerns about inflation as the Ivory Towers work themselves into deflation mode one more time .
We could see disinflation in some areas with sharp inflation in others .
Next up was Germany and by now investors were in the brace position .
This led to this analysis .
You may be thinking that this is better than the ones above but there is a catch .
Regular readers will recall that due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looks at supply this series has inflated the German manufacturing data .
This has happened again .
So the truth is that the German numbers are closer to France once we allow for this .
We also see the first signals of trouble in the labour markets .
Also we note a continuing pattern where services are being hit much harder than manufacturing , Of course manufacturing had seen a rough 2019 but services have essentially plunged at a rapid rate .
We do not get much individual detail but you can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing even worse .
I am trying hard to think of PMI numbers in the 20s I have seen before .
Putting it all together we get this .
Our numbers turned up to a similar drum beat and bass line .
This was supported by the manufacturing PMI being at 48 but it looks as though we have at least some of the issues at play in the German number too .
The numbers added to the household finances one from IHS Markit yesterday .
So we have the first inklings of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy and we can add it to the 40.7 released by Australia yesterday .
However we need a note of caution as these numbers have had troubles before and the issue over the treatment of suppliers delivery times is an issue right now .
Also it does not appear to matter if your PMI is 30 or 37 we seem to get told this .
Now I am slightly exaggerating because they have said 1.5 % to 2 % for the UK but if we are there then France and the Euro area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe worse if the series is to be consistent .
Next I thought I would give you some number-crunching from Japan .
Our To Infinity !
And Beyond !
Theme has been in play for The Tokyo Whale and the emphasis is mine .
Surely not !
But the taxpayer may be about to get a warning of sorts .
For today that will be on the back burner as the Nikkei 225 equity index rose 7 % to just above 18,000 which means that its purchases of over 200 billion Yen yesterday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ note the “ clip size ” has nearly trebled for The Tokyo Whale .

by Shaun Richards
This morning has seen the first actual signals of the scale of the economic slow down going on. One of the problems with official economic data is the time lag before we get it and this has been exacerbated by the fact that this has been an economic contraction on speed ( LSD). By the time they tell us how bad it has been we may be in quite a different world! It is always a battle between accuracy and timeliness for economic data. Thus eyes will have turned to the business surveys released this morning.
Do ya do ya do ya do ya
Ooh I’m looking for clues
Ooh I’m looking for clues
Ooh I’m looking for clues ( Robert Palmer)
Japan
The main series began in Japan earlier and brace yourselves.
#Japan‘s economic downturn deepens drastically in March, dragged down by a sharp contraction in the service sector, according to #PMI data as #coronavirus outbreak led to plummeting tourism, event cancellations and supply chain disruptions. ( IHS Markit )
The composite output index was at 35.8 which indicates an annualised fall in GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) approaching 8% should it continue. There was a split between manufacturing ( 44.8) and services ( 32.7) but not the way we have got used to. The manufacturing number was the worst since April 2009 and the services one was the worst since the series began in 2007.
France
Next in the series came La Belle France and we needed to brace ourselves even more.
March Flash France PMI suggest GDP is collapsing at an annualised rate approaching double digits, with the Composite Output PMI at an all-time low of 30.2 (51.9 – Feb). Both services and manufacturers recorded extreme drops in output on the month.
There was more to come.
French private sector activity contracted at the
sharpest rate in nearly 22 years of data collection
during March, amid widespread business closures
due to the coronavirus outbreak.
There are obvious fears about employment and hence unemployment.
Amid falling new orders, private sector firms cut
their staff numbers for the first time in nearly threeand-a-half years during March. Moreover, the rate
of reduction was the quickest since April 2013.
I also noted this as I have my concerns about inflation as the Ivory Towers work themselves into deflation mode one more time.
Despite weaker demand conditions, supply
shortages drove input prices higher in March…….with
manufacturers raising output prices for the first time
in three months
We could see disinflation in some areas with sharp inflation in others.
Germany
Next up was Germany and by now investors were in the brace position.
The headline Flash Germany
Composite PMI Output Index plunged from 50.7 in
February to 37.2, its lowest since February 2009.
The preliminary data were based on responses
collected between March 12-23.
This led to this analysis.
“The unprecedented collapse in the PMI
underscores how Germany is headed for recession,
and a steep one at that. The March data are
indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of
around 2%, and the escalation of measures to
contain the virus outbreak mean we should be
braced for the downturn to further intensify in the
second quarter.”
You may be thinking that this is better than the ones above but there is a catch. Regular readers will recall that due to a problem in the way it looks at supply this series has inflated the German manufacturing data. This has happened again.
The headline Flash Germany
Manufacturing PMI sank to 45.7, though it was
supported somewhat by a further increase in
supplier delivery times – the most marked since
July 2018 – and a noticeably slower fall in stocks of
purchases, both linked to supply-side disruption
So the truth is that the German numbers are closer to France once we allow for this. We also see the first signals of trouble in the labour markets.
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After increasing – albeit marginally – in each of the
previous four months, employment across
Germany’s private sector returned to contraction in
March. The decline was the steepest since May
2009 and was underpinned by similarly sharp drops
in workforce numbers across both manufacturing
and services.
Also we note a continuing pattern where services are being hit much harder than manufacturing, Of course manufacturing had seen a rough 2019 but services have essentially plunged at a rapid rate.
The Euro Area
We do not get much individual detail but you can see that the other Euro area nations are doing even worse.
The rest of the euro area reported an even
steeper decline than seen in both France and
Germany, led by comfortably the sharpest fall in
service sector activity ever recorded, though
manufacturing output also shrank at the steepest
rate for almost 11 years.
I am trying hard to think of PMI numbers in the 20s I have seen before.
Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index(2)
at 28.4 (52.6 in February). Record low (since
July 1998)
Putting it all together we get this.
The March PMI is indicative of GDP slumping at a
quarterly rate of around 2%,
The UK
Our numbers turned up to a similar drum beat and bass line.
At 37.1 in March, down from 53.0 in February, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit / CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index – which is based on approximately 85% of usual monthly replies – signalled the fastest downturn in private sector business activity since the series began in January 1998. The prior low of 38.1 was seen in November 2008.
This was supported by the manufacturing PMI being at 48 but it looks as though we have at least some of the issues at play in the German number too.
Longer suppliers’ delivery times are typically seen as an
advance indicator of rising demand for raw materials and
therefore have a positive influence on the Manufacturing PMI index.
The numbers added to the household finances one from IHS Markit yesterday.
UK consumers are already feeling the financial pinch of
coronavirus, according to the IHS Markit UK Household Finance Index. With the country on the brink of lockdown during the survey collection dates (12-17 March), surveyed households reported the largest degree of pessimism towards job security in over eight years,
with those employed in entertainment and manufacturing sectors deeming their jobs to be at the most risk.
Comment
So we have the first inklings of what is taking place in the world economy and we can add it to the 40.7 released by Australia yesterday. However we need a note of caution as these numbers have had troubles before and the issue over the treatment of suppliers delivery times is an issue right now. Also it does not appear to matter if your PMI is 30 or 37 we seem to get told this.
The March PMI is indicative of GDP slumping at a
quarterly rate of around 2%,
Now I am slightly exaggerating because they have said 1.5% to 2% for the UK but if we are there then France and the Euro area must be more like 3% and maybe worse if the series is to be consistent.
Next I thought I would give you some number-crunching from Japan.
TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan on Tuesday acknowledged unrealized losses of 2-3 trillion yen ($18-$27 billion) on its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after a rout in Japanese stock prices, raising the prospect it could post an annual loss this year.
Our To Infinity! And Beyond! Theme has been in play for The Tokyo Whale and the emphasis is mine.
Its stock purchase started at a pace of one trillion yen per year in 2013 when the Nikkei was around 12,000. The buying expanded to 3 trillion yen in 2014 and to 6 trillion yen in 2016, ostensibly to boost economic growth and lift inflation, but many investors view the policy as direct intervention to prop up share prices.
Surely not! But the taxpayer may be about to get a warning of sorts.
The unrealized loss of 2-3 trillion yen would wipe out about 1.7 trillion yen of recurring profits the BOJ is estimated to make this year from interest payments on its massive bond holdings, said Hiroshi Ugai, senior economist at J.P. Morgan.
For today that will be on the back burner as the Nikkei 225 equity index rose 7% to just above 18,000 which means that its purchases of over 200 billion Yen yesterday will be onside at least as we note the “clip size” has nearly trebled for The Tokyo Whale.