investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Visualizing the growth rate of COVID-19 across the United States

I made this visualization using R 3.6.1 and ggplot with COVID-19 case count data from the New York Times ( @ @ @ @ @ sorted from top to bottom by the date that the weekly average of daily new @ @ @ @ @ rates were normalized across the states for the sake of the visualization .
Curves are @ @ @ @ @ as defined by the US Census Bureau .
Along the right side is the date @ @ @ @ @ .
If you have any critiques/suggestions/questions please let me know !

by bgregory98
I made this visualization using R 3.6.1 and ggplot with COVID-19 case count data from the New York Times (nytimes/covid-19-data). States are sorted from top to bottom by the date that the weekly average of daily new cases peaked. These growth rates were normalized across the states for the sake of the visualization. Curves are colored by major US region as defined by the US Census Bureau. Along the right side is the date that the growth rate peaked.
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If you have any critiques/suggestions/questions please let me know!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--IRS Permitting Mid Year Changes to Medical Plans/HSA & FSA Contrinutions

Just like the 401k and student loan reimbursement provisions in the CARES ACT , employers coho choose to participate have @ @ @ @ @ mid-year changes to medical plans and contributions .
My company ’ s executive leadership team @ @ @ @ @ this… in part because of the logistical issues of processing changes just ahead of Open @ @ @ @ @ any of you had employers who opted in ?
Do your employers even know these @ @ @ @ @ ?
I already suspended my 401k loan repayments , but we did not opt in @ @ @ @ @ reimbursement .
I feel like many of these programs go unnoticed and employees miss out @ @ @ @ @ to ask your HR/Benefits Team if anyone of these employee friendly programs are being offered @ @ @

by HuskerLiberal
www.employmentlawworldview.com/irs-guidance-provides-employers-with-the-ability-to-offer-a-second-open-enrollment-period-for-the-2020-plan-year-and-provides-greater-flexibility-for-making-mid-year-cafeteria-plan-elections-us/
Just like the 401k and student loan reimbursement provisions in the CARES ACT, employers coho choose to participate have the ability to offer unprecedented mid-year changes to medical plans and contributions.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
My company’s executive leadership team has yet to agree to this… in part because of the logistical issues of processing changes just ahead of Open Enrollment for 2021.
Have any of you had employers who opted in? Do your employers even know these special provisions are out there? I already suspended my 401k loan repayments, but we did not opt in to the student loan payment reimbursement.
I feel like many of these programs go unnoticed and employees miss out. I would encourage you to ask your HR/Benefits Team if anyone of these employee friendly programs are being offered or considered.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Rent vs. Buy – a restrospective

Rent vs. Buy – a restrospective

I see a lot of posts on this forum that ask the rent vs. buy question .
There are plenty of calculators out there , some more elaborate than others , but the basic gist of it is that your break-even point is typically around the 5-7 years mark .
My wife and I bought our first home in December , 2015 , so we ’ re approaching that five-year mark , and I wanted to take a look to see how we ’ re faring .
Before we bought , we were renting a home below market value , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that situation for various personal reasons ; although we were set on buying , I thought it would be interesting to look at what things *would have been* if we chose to rent instead .
We bought a 3br 2ba home in the suburbs of a major city ; cost of living is moderate to high .
Had we rented , we probably would have gone into a 1br apartment until we had our first child , when we ’ d go to a 2br place , and finally to a 3br place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s too complicated , though , so let ’ s just make an apples to apples comparison – let ’ s assume that we would have rented a roughly equivalent home the whole time .
Without further ado , here is the analysis : I just took a look at roughly comparable homes for rent in the area ( there aren ’ t many ) , and they are going for ~ $ 3,000/mo ; when we bought , they were going for ~ $ 2,500/mo , so let ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2,750/mo for the 55 months since we bought , and we get $ 151,500 .
We already broke even !
Yay !
I started looking to figure out *when* we broke even , but that is a big pain in the neck , so I won ’ t bother .
Some lessons learned in the past 4.5 years : • Rent is the maximum you pay to put a safe roof over your head every month ; mortgage is the minimum .
We pay $ 1,491/mo in mortgage , but our total cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ d need to pay for regardless , like electrical / cable ) has averaged around $ 2,050/mo .
Mortgage only makes up about 74 % of my cost of housing .
• Ownership means a lot more irregular expenses .
I may be paying less on average , but there are some months when I need to spend upwards of $ 5,000 on my home because of things that break down .
• Initial negotiation was critical .
We got into a bidding war with another couple and initially agreed on $ 305k @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , but after inspection we negotiated that number down ; after our appraisal came in low , at $ 280k , we refused to pay a penny over $ 280k .
The sellers threatened to walk , but we held firm , and they eventually relented .
• Pure dollars and cents are important , but there is something to be said about security and pride of ownership .
We own our home ; we aren ’ t subject to the whims of a landlord , and we will only move out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or if there is some disaster ) .
If we want to do something , the only limitation we have is what our township allows , and we have the freedom to do things ourselves or contract it out , which has meant that I ’ ve been able to do some things I ’ d never have learned to do in a rental situation .
I take pride , for example , in the ceiling fans , outlets , and light fixtures I installed before our first child was born ; I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on our shed ; I take pride in the fact that I fixed our boiler in March , when a sensor was dirty and malfunctioned as a result .
You can ’ t really put a price on that .
• Although ownership was right for us , it very easily could ’ ve been wrong if we were not fully prepared for the financial commitments that come with owning a home .
It wasn ’ t great to have to dump more than $ 10k into things nobody could see , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 .
That could ’ ve put us in a debt spiral if we were not ready for that type of eventuality .
• Appreciation is somewhat arbitrary .
While our purchase price was probably lower than it needed to be , current value has been driven somewhat by luck .
• Our next-door neighbor intended to sell his home to family for $ 275k in 2016 , but someone came in and offered him $ 340k , which he took .
That person made some great improvements and moved out last year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Part of our low appraisal was that homes in this neighborhood were just not turning over , so it was tough .
In the 4.5 years since we bought , five out of the ten homes on our block have sold , all to people similar to us .
The neighborhood has gone from aging and quiet to young and vibrant .
There were zero kids on my block when we moved in ; now , there are 13 kids under age-10 .
• Homeowners have virtually all made appreciable improvements to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ floor ; two have put on additions ; my nearest neighbors have all done significant tree and landscaping work , all of which improved curb apeal .
Had much of this not happened , there is no way our home would be worth $ 360k , even with all of the improvements we made .
I hope this helps folks who are considering buying !
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due @ @

by cjw_5110
I see a lot of posts on this forum that ask the rent vs. buy question. There are plenty of calculators out there, some more elaborate than others, but the basic gist of it is that your break-even point is typically around the 5-7 years mark.
My wife and I bought our first home in December, 2015, so we’re approaching that five-year mark, and I wanted to take a look to see how we’re faring.
Before we bought, we were renting a home below market value, and we needed to get out of that situation for various personal reasons; although we were set on buying, I thought it would be interesting to look at what things *would have been* if we chose to rent instead.
We bought a 3br 2ba home in the suburbs of a major city; cost of living is moderate to high. Had we rented, we probably would have gone into a 1br apartment until we had our first child, when we’d go to a 2br place, and finally to a 3br place once we had our second kid. That’s too complicated, though, so let’s just make an apples to apples comparison – let’s assume that we would have rented a roughly equivalent home the whole time.
Without further ado, here is the analysis:
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Actual Costs of Ownership
Type Cost Comments Mortgage, down payment, closing costs $109,311.00 $266k mortgage on a $280k home, refinanced twice to get better terms Maintenance $16,210.30 ~1.2% of purchase price, per year Home Services $6,681.56 House cleaning, lawn service – things we wouldn’t have done if we were renting Home Improvement $3,611.15 Minor improvements, like adding mulch Capital Improvements $44,173.57 Major improvements, like adding central A/C Appreciation -$62,000 Home value went from $280k to $360k; after 5% closing costs if we were to sell, we’re $62k better off Opportunity cost of Up-front cash $12,523.72 S&P has increased by 48.6% since we closed with $26k-ish Total $130,511.30 Total costs minus benefits
I just took a look at roughly comparable homes for rent in the area (there aren’t many), and they are going for ~$3,000/mo; when we bought, they were going for ~$2,500/mo, so let’s just split the difference and assume $2,750/mo for the 55 months since we bought, and we get $151,500. We already broke even! Yay!
I started looking to figure out *when* we broke even, but that is a big pain in the neck, so I won’t bother.
Some lessons learned in the past 4.5 years:
Rent is the maximum you pay to put a safe roof over your head every month; mortgage is the minimum. We pay $1,491/mo in mortgage, but our total cost of housing (excluding things you’d need to pay for regardless, like electrical / cable) has averaged around $2,050/mo. Mortgage only makes up about 74% of my cost of housing. Ownership means a lot more irregular expenses. I may be paying less on average, but there are some months when I need to spend upwards of $5,000 on my home because of things that break down. Initial negotiation was critical. We got into a bidding war with another couple and initially agreed on $305k (initial asking price was $299k), but after inspection we negotiated that number down; after our appraisal came in low, at $280k, we refused to pay a penny over $280k. The sellers threatened to walk, but we held firm, and they eventually relented. Pure dollars and cents are important, but there is something to be said about security and pride of ownership. We own our home; we aren’t subject to the whims of a landlord, and we will only move out of our home on our terms (or if there is some disaster). If we want to do something, the only limitation we have is what our township allows, and we have the freedom to do things ourselves or contract it out, which has meant that I’ve been able to do some things I’d never have learned to do in a rental situation. I take pride, for example, in the ceiling fans, outlets, and light fixtures I installed before our first child was born; I take pride in the roof I replaced on our shed; I take pride in the fact that I fixed our boiler in March, when a sensor was dirty and malfunctioned as a result. You can’t really put a price on that. Although ownership was right for us, it very easily could’ve been wrong if we were not fully prepared for the financial commitments that come with owning a home. It wasn’t great to have to dump more than $10k into things nobody could see, all within two months of each other in 2016. That could’ve put us in a debt spiral if we were not ready for that type of eventuality. Appreciation is somewhat arbitrary. While our purchase price was probably lower than it needed to be, current value has been driven somewhat by luck. Our next-door neighbor intended to sell his home to family for $275k in 2016, but someone came in and offered him $340k, which he took. That person made some great improvements and moved out last year, selling for $397k. Part of our low appraisal was that homes in this neighborhood were just not turning over, so it was tough. In the 4.5 years since we bought, five out of the ten homes on our block have sold, all to people similar to us. The neighborhood has gone from aging and quiet to young and vibrant. There were zero kids on my block when we moved in; now, there are 13 kids under age-10. Homeowners have virtually all made appreciable improvements to their homes – one has added a second floor; two have put on additions; my nearest neighbors have all done significant tree and landscaping work, all of which improved curb apeal. Had much of this not happened, there is no way our home would be worth $360k, even with all of the improvements we made.
I hope this helps folks who are considering buying!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Bet it ALL on BEAR! A true DD story – SPY GAME IS RIGGED

So basically back in 5/22 I thought SPY would break 280 and start dropping but the head of the Discord channel I was on bet me it would rebound and rise up to 300 .
We both took opposite positions and I lost out .
After that I formed a DD group with all the other traders who also thought the market was gon na crash and one of us mentioned a trader who came up with an Algo that basically predicts the S & P futures each time .
It made 4k to 408k .
So here ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by market makers .
What makes a movie a good movie ?
A plot twist .
The Directors are the Market makers .
Each episode has a false open and then a true direction in the opposite way .
Here ’ s an example : The Algo to rule All Algos So basically after a consolidation ( Blue ) there is a episode , starting with a false open ( Red ) and then a in the case it gets over-extended ( Yellow ) or near it and starts reversing buy the call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ( Green ) where the episode plays out exactly the same size as the “ intermission ” ( Blue ) .
The Cliffhanger ( Purple ) Sometimes it ’ s unclear and you need to sit on your hands to while the intermission happens : Down is the Future But all this is a “ FALSE ” pattern built by the Feds ( JPOW ) QE and followed buy most of the Kangaroos , and in the speeches today ( testifying to the House and Senate ) he mentioned switching from ETFs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buying Corporate Junk Bonds .
We are ready for a serious crash coming soon .
We ’ re getting off the QE benefits .
Bears get your puts !
Bulls go for the VIXes !
Kangaroos , pick a side .
If you don ’ t believe me , watch the futures and see if this episode works out .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by FapForGodEyes
So basically back in 5/22 I thought SPY would break 280 and start dropping but the head of the Discord channel I was on bet me it would rebound and rise up to 300. We both took opposite positions and I lost out.
After that I formed a DD group with all the other traders who also thought the market was gonna crash and one of us mentioned a trader who came up with an Algo that basically predicts the S&P futures each time. It made 4k to 408k.
So here’s basically the idea. Markets are rigged by market makers. What makes a movie a good movie? A plot twist. The Directors are the Market makers. Each episode has a false open and then a true direction in the opposite way. Here’s an example:
The Algo to rule All Algos
So basically after a consolidation (Blue) there is a episode, starting with a false open (Red) and then a in the case it gets over-extended (Yellow) or near it and starts reversing buy the call / future. Then it goes into the (Green) where the episode plays out exactly the same size as the “intermission” (Blue). The Cliffhanger (Purple)
Sometimes it’s unclear and you need to sit on your hands to while the intermission happens:
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Happened today 6/16-6/17
And it found a direction
Down is the Future
But all this is a “FALSE” pattern built by the Feds (JPOW) QE and followed buy most of the Kangaroos, and in the speeches today (testifying to the House and Senate) he mentioned switching from ETFs and bypassing the markets all together to buying Corporate Junk Bonds.
Here’s a possible plan for tomorrow.
We are ready for a serious crash coming soon. We’re getting off the QE benefits. Bears get your puts! Bulls go for the VIXes! Kangaroos, pick a side. If you don’t believe me, watch the futures and see if this episode works out.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--JUDGE HAS CONFIRMED PCG BANKRUPTCY EXIT IN WRITTEN MEMO. OFFICIAL LEGAL CONFIRMATION FOR EXIT THIS F

JUDGE HAS CONFIRMED PCG BANKRUPTCY EXIT IN WRITTEN MEMO. OFFICIAL LEGAL CONFIRMATION FOR EXIT THIS FRIDAY.

I know you ’ re sick and tired of seeing all the PCG posts lately and it ’ s true it ’ s been trading sideways cause it ’ s manipulated as fuck .
This is because institutions have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients and can ’ t risk buying in bigly before they legal confirmation that the exit is official .
My theory is that once this is legally confirmed on Friday , we will see a moon ( if you want to see an indication of the potential , look at what happened to the share price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it spiked to $ 13.3 on news from Bloomberg that the debt deal was financed ) .
This evening , Judge Montali submitted a written memo that says he will confirm the exit this Friday , at which point institutions will begin some serious buying .
Get in before the rocket takes off .
Positions cause I know you guys only care about that .
I already have some 11/10.5 credit spreads this week cause I have a small penis , but will plan to enter 11.5/11 put credit spreads for 6/26 expiry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m looking at around 12,000 max gain for 8000 max loss .
Here is the link to the memorandum if you want to read it : restructuring.primeclerk.com/pge/Home-DocketInfo “ The court intends to issue the OCP on Friday , June 19 , 2020 , after counsel for the Debtors has had an opportunity to revise it in accordance with any provisions of the Memorandum Decision and any developments occurring before then .
To that end , it has scheduled a hearing on June 19 , 2020 , at 12:00 Noon to resolve any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ OCP.
” Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by withthepotboy
I know you’re sick and tired of seeing all the PCG posts lately and it’s true it’s been trading sideways cause it’s manipulated as fuck. This is because institutions have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients and can’t risk buying in bigly before they legal confirmation that the exit is official. My theory is that once this is legally confirmed on Friday, we will see a moon (if you want to see an indication of the potential, look at what happened to the share price two Friday’s ago, when it spiked to $13.3 on news from Bloomberg that the debt deal was financed). This evening, Judge Montali submitted a written memo that says he will confirm the exit this Friday, at which point institutions will begin some serious buying. Get in before the rocket takes off.
Positions cause I know you guys only care about that. I already have some 11/10.5 credit spreads this week cause I have a small penis, but will plan to enter 11.5/11 put credit spreads for 6/26 expiry. If I buy 400 contracts I’m looking at around 12,000 max gain for 8000 max loss.
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Here is the link to the memorandum if you want to read it: restructuring.primeclerk.com/pge/Home-DocketInfo
“The court intends to issue the OCP on Friday, June 19, 2020, after counsel for the Debtors has had an opportunity to revise it in accordance with any provisions of the Memorandum Decision and any developments occurring before then. To that end, it has scheduled a hearing on June 19, 2020, at 12:00 Noon to resolve any remaining disagreements about the form of the OCP.”
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Connecting the Dots: What if This is a Retirement Crisis?

TLDR : Pensions have shifted away from safe assets to equities and “ alternative assets ” over the past ~30 years .
The U.S. has an ageing populace and we will be seeing a ton of retirements over the next decade .
Less safety in retirement assets will lead to higher levels of savings and a lower velocity of money .
Deflation and whatnot .
Let ’ s look at some facts : About ~50 % in equities as of 2016 .
37 % of all workers in a retirement plan in the pension system .
Link Height of baby @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retirement age in 2025 .
Roughly 10,000 people will be retiring each day for the next decade .
The peak will be ~2023 but will stay high through ~ 2030 .
Link Pensions are normally pre-funded and can survive for a while but are still dependent long term on the assets they are invested in .
Certain pensions offer more guarantees than others .
Link Putting it all together : Go back a few decades and retirement was all about fixed income assets like investment grade bonds .
Interest rates have gone down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low since the Great Recession and will be near 0 for at least the next two years according to JPow just the other day .
More and more retirement accounts , like pensions , have been using riskier assets like equities .
This shift , combined with a market crash due to a mixture of the pandemic and the low levels of liquidity prior to the pandemic have fucked things up .
Chickens are roosting and whatnot .
While pensions are pre-funded , we are talking about an extremely high rate of retirement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ ve read all that and are wondering : now look here , it ’ s 2020 , that doesn ’ t sound all bad , how can it get worse ?
It can !
Velocity of Money and the Potential Deflationary Crisis : Unlimited QE has done a lot to get the market back on track .
This will give funds that manage pensions and retirement accounts time to reallocate their investments .
Good for boomers .
But , that means that we will be seeing a reallocation to safer assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no return on investment thanks to low interest rates .
Now , retirement will depend more on savings/social security .
As more people save and fewer invest , an already low velocity of money will decrease .
If people don ’ t trust the market because it looks rigged , they are likely going to be fearful of investing .
Look at Warren Buffet for example .
The FED really only has tools to affect the markets .
Policy that will affect inflation will mostly come from Congress .
Think stimulus checks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the economy or long-term unemployment too much as we will know much more in the next few months .
Here is a paper claiming ~8 % unemployment after 2 years .
High unemployment , an ageing population and worries about retirement don ’ t sound like a good combination for increasing an already low velocity of money .
There is also the concern of stagnant wages for working age Americans , given that Millennial and Gen X wages never recovered after the Great Recession .
And of course , large corporations remaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowing them to buy up competition and eventually using that leverage to reduce wages because what are you going to do , work somewhere else ?
Not if there if there isn ’ t any competition .
Also student loan debt creating a generation of renters leading to significantly less saving and wealth as a function of age .
I ’ ll let someone else write about that topic .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by boolean_10
TLDR: Pensions have shifted away from safe assets to equities and “alternative assets” over the past ~30 years. The U.S. has an ageing populace and we will be seeing a ton of retirements over the next decade. Less safety in retirement assets will lead to higher levels of savings and a lower velocity of money. Deflation and whatnot.
Let’s look at some facts:
Pension shifts:
“State and local public pension funds have significantly changed their asset-investment strategies over the past three decades. They have shifted a large percentage of fund assets away from fixed-income securities, such as government and corporate bonds, toward equities and alternative investments, including hedge funds and private equity funds. This shift has increased the riskiness and complexity of pension portfolios and has coincided with significantly higher investment fees.”
Link
About ~50% in equities as of 2016.
37% of all workers in a retirement plan in the pension system. Link
Height of baby boom was 1960. They will reach retirement age in 2025. Roughly 10,000 people will be retiring each day for the next decade. The peak will be ~2023 but will stay high through ~ 2030. Link
Pensions are normally pre-funded and can survive for a while but are still dependent long term on the assets they are invested in. Certain pensions offer more guarantees than others. Link
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!

Putting it all together:
Go back a few decades and retirement was all about fixed income assets like investment grade bonds. Interest rates have gone down over the years and have been very low since the Great Recession and will be near 0 for at least the next two years according to JPow just the other day. More and more retirement accounts, like pensions, have been using riskier assets like equities. This shift, combined with a market crash due to a mixture of the pandemic and the low levels of liquidity prior to the pandemic have fucked things up. Chickens are roosting and whatnot. While pensions are pre-funded, we are talking about an extremely high rate of retirement at ~10,000 individuals per day.
So you’ve read all that and are wondering: now look here, it’s 2020, that doesn’t sound all bad, how can it get worse? It can!

Velocity of Money and the Potential Deflationary Crisis:
Unlimited QE has done a lot to get the market back on track. This will give funds that manage pensions and retirement accounts time to reallocate their investments. Good for boomers. But, that means that we will be seeing a reallocation to safer assets. All the safe assets offer essentially no return on investment thanks to low interest rates. Now, retirement will depend more on savings/social security. As more people save and fewer invest, an already low velocity of money will decrease. If people don’t trust the market because it looks rigged, they are likely going to be fearful of investing. Look at Warren Buffet for example. The FED really only has tools to affect the markets. Policy that will affect inflation will mostly come from Congress. Think stimulus checks. I don’t want to speculate about the economy or long-term unemployment too much as we will know much more in the next few months. Here is a paper claiming ~8% unemployment after 2 years. High unemployment, an ageing population and worries about retirement don’t sound like a good combination for increasing an already low velocity of money.
There is also the concern of stagnant wages for working age Americans, given that Millennial and Gen X wages never recovered after the Great Recession. And of course, large corporations remaining successful and being aided by the government allowing them to buy up competition and eventually using that leverage to reduce wages because what are you going to do, work somewhere else? Not if there if there isn’t any competition. Also student loan debt creating a generation of renters leading to significantly less saving and wealth as a function of age. I’ll let someone else write about that topic.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--DD: Predictable Unpredictability: Playing SPY and VXX using recent performance against the Fed repo

DD: Predictable Unpredictability: Playing SPY and VXX using recent performance against the Fed repo schedule

Taking advantage of the Pump : playing the Fed repo schedule for near-term tendies I try to get to all questions in comments pretty fast , cuz I love this shit , but if I miss something you ’ re wondering that ’ s time sensitive just PM me and I ’ ll give you my opinion ( which , to be clear , is NOT the opinion of a financial advisor or anything remotely close to one .
be sure to do ya own research , and NEVER spend more than you can lose with a shrug and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it . )
UPDATE : VXX has been resilient through several small SPY morning pumps as I suspected .
This happened almost exactly the same times last Friday , but it had a very sharp afternoon increase .
Because VXX has bounced back up , and looks to be trending that way , I will staying firm with them through the day as I believe without the afternoon help of an additional repo boost the SPY selloff will continue .
EDIT : there ’ s a footnote I forgot because my handwriting is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day of the past like two months that didn ’ t rise on a dual repo day , but it ’ s was following two days where SPY surged over 6 % , which made it an outlier .
UPDATE : u/brucekeller pointed something interesting out I forgot I wanted to mention in here .
The Friday June 12th term repo ’ s were IOEM plus ZERO basis points–in other words , on Friday the fed repos were free loans .
That could ’ ve helped explain the size of the upward bounce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see if this plays out practically , as the term repos for the remainder of this month ’ s calendar are at 10 basis points , including the one coming this Thursday .
I tried to find any consistencies between the maturity date of the loans and the action in the markets , but came up empty .
My confirmation bias was sad , that would ’ ve been a cool find .
UPDATE : overnight session was up and down but looks like VXX will kick things off by keeping it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the open The “ pump ” is a real thing , and it ’ s something that the Fed is required to release information and a schedule on .
It is done through a financial mechanism called a “ Repo ” —essentially a very short term ( overnight to one month ) loan given using safe securities , in this case treasury bonds , as collateral .
The bottom line is it creates immediate liquidity and cash flow options for MMs , who then put it back into the market in the form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pump .
The suspicious strength of the pumps led me to wonder how this was actually functioning and timed , and if It could help provide predictably during the current crazy market volatility .
This is what I found .
Let ’ s start with the positive performances of SPY over the past month and half .
On May 6th , 7th , 8th , and 9th , SPY had a nice rally highlighted by a 1.6 % jump on the 8th .
After cooling off , on May 14th , 15th , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dip , with a notably strong jump of 3 % ( 2.95 ) on May 18th .
To close out May it hot up on the 26th and 27th , before one last jump on the 29th .
In June , SPY ripped on the 1st , 2nd , and 3rd , 4th , 9th , and 10th before the shitshow on the 11th .
Huge bounce back on the 12th .
If you look at the corresponding Fed repo schedule ( www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details ) , you ’ ll see that the largest positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the dates special dates where the Fed did two repo ’ s—the daily overnight AND an additional term repo ( only one wasn ’ t noticeably large of an increase , but it was still an increase ) but it was in the middle of a few day rally ) Practically speaking that means each Tuesday of the next month should see an uptick in SPY since they are listed as the double dates .
How that plays out in this crazy , unsure week ?
I was going to be itching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s the ( seemingly ) far date of the next dual repo ( overnight and term loan ) .
but then I saw that the Friday the 12th we rally we just had fell on the day this month ’ s new Repo schedule took affect .
Then I looked back through the schedule for 6 months , and saw without fail the day the new repo schedule is released is a positive jump for SPY .
In other words , the downward correction that was happening on Thursday June 11th was bailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What lucky timing for da bulls .
This time there is nothing to bail out the flash crash ( unless we get an impromptu Donnie Pump going hard on vaccines ) and tomorrow is a downswing .
Load up on VXX 6/19 calls tomorrow , ride it through at least tomorrow though we will likely go down through Friday because there ’ s no repo excitement to lift the markets ( no new schedule release and no dual repo operation until Tuesday ) .
Pick up 6/26 SPY calls Friday EOD if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend news cycle , but better would be Monday for the Tuesday dual-repo pump An interesting note is that they change the time of the operations in week or two week chunks throughout the month .
Tin foil hat aside , I think this is done purposefully to create a sense of randomness in the pumps .
You know how we always mention the two pm pump ?
They mix up the operation times after a bit so you don ’ t play it like clockwork .
TLDR : by VXX calls cuz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Next week on Tuesday we have a sharp pop up so get SPY calls on Monday .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by MiltDavis
Taking advantage of the Pump: playing the Fed repo schedule for near-term tendies
I try to get to all questions in comments pretty fast, cuz I love this shit, but if I miss something you’re wondering that’s time sensitive just PM me and I’ll give you my opinion (which, to be clear, is NOT the opinion of a financial advisor or anything remotely close to one. be sure to do ya own research, and NEVER spend more than you can lose with a shrug and a laugh on trading–it’s not worth it.)
UPDATE: VXX has been resilient through several small SPY morning pumps as I suspected. This happened almost exactly the same times last Friday, but it had a very sharp afternoon increase. Because VXX has bounced back up, and looks to be trending that way, I will staying firm with them through the day as I believe without the afternoon help of an additional repo boost the SPY selloff will continue.
EDIT: there’s a footnote I forgot because my handwriting is atrocious–for transparency sake 6/8 was the one day of the past like two months that didn’t rise on a dual repo day, but it’s was following two days where SPY surged over 6%, which made it an outlier.
UPDATE: u/brucekeller pointed something interesting out I forgot I wanted to mention in here. The Friday June 12th term repo’s were IOEM plus ZERO basis points–in other words, on Friday the fed repos were free loans. That could’ve helped explain the size of the upward bounce back. It’ll be interesting to see if this plays out practically, as the term repos for the remainder of this month’s calendar are at 10 basis points, including the one coming this Thursday.
I tried to find any consistencies between the maturity date of the loans and the action in the markets, but came up empty. My confirmation bias was sad, that would’ve been a cool find.
UPDATE: overnight session was up and down but looks like VXX will kick things off by keeping it’s part of the bargain on the open
The “pump” is a real thing, and it’s something that the Fed is required to release information and a schedule on. It is done through a financial mechanism called a “Repo”—essentially a very short term (overnight to one month) loan given using safe securities, in this case treasury bonds, as collateral. The bottom line is it creates immediate liquidity and cash flow options for MMs, who then put it back into the market in the form of securities investment. Thus, the pump.
www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed04.html
The suspicious strength of the pumps led me to wonder how this was actually functioning and timed, and if It could help provide predictably during the current crazy market volatility. This is what I found.
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Let’s start with the positive performances of SPY over the past month and half.
On May 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th, SPY had a nice rally highlighted by a 1.6% jump on the 8th. After cooling off, on May 14th, 15th, and 18th it rallied up after a dip, with a notably strong jump of 3% (2.95) on May 18th. To close out May it hot up on the 26th and 27th, before one last jump on the 29th.
In June, SPY ripped on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, 4th, 9th, and 10th before the shitshow on the 11th. Huge bounce back on the 12th.
If you look at the corresponding Fed repo schedule (www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details), you’ll see that the largest positive SPY increase days in May are correlated with the dates special dates where the Fed did two repo’s—the daily overnight AND an additional term repo (only one wasn’t noticeably large of an increase, but it was still an increase) but it was in the middle of a few day rally)
Practically speaking that means each Tuesday of the next month should see an uptick in SPY since they are listed as the double dates.
How that plays out in this crazy, unsure week? I was going to be itching for Tuesday, disappointed that it’s the (seemingly) far date of the next dual repo (overnight and term loan). but then I saw that the Friday the 12th we rally we just had fell on the day this month’s new Repo schedule took affect. Then I looked back through the schedule for 6 months, and saw without fail the day the new repo schedule is released is a positive jump for SPY. In other words, the downward correction that was happening on Thursday June 11th was bailed out by a new Friday repo scheduling. What lucky timing for da bulls.
This time there is nothing to bail out the flash crash (unless we get an impromptu Donnie Pump going hard on vaccines) and tomorrow is a downswing. Load up on VXX 6/19 calls tomorrow, ride it through at least tomorrow though we will likely go down through Friday because there’s no repo excitement to lift the markets (no new schedule release and no dual repo operation until Tuesday). Pick up 6/26 SPY calls Friday EOD if you’re confident in a good weekend news cycle, but better would be Monday for the Tuesday dual-repo pump
An interesting note is that they change the time of the operations in week or two week chunks throughout the month. Tin foil hat aside, I think this is done purposefully to create a sense of randomness in the pumps. You know how we always mention the two pm pump? They mix up the operation times after a bit so you don’t play it like clockwork.
TLDR: by VXX calls cuz we’re going down until Friday. Next week on Tuesday we have a sharp pop up so get SPY calls on Monday.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Wirecard is likely going bankrupt. Short everything

Ok Guys , I ` ll keep this short , since its all happening so fast right now .
Wirecard committed accounting fraud .
They were not able to provide an autority approved balance sheet by the deadline tomorrow .
This will allow all their creditors to ask back for theyr loans .
Outstanding loans are 2 Billion , which Wirecard does not have .
This will likely cause them to default .
The biggest creditors are Commerzbank and Deutsche .
These Idiots took stocks instead of bonds as security .
The Wirecard stock went down 60 % today .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of now .
This event is big enough to send shockwaves through the worldwide financial sector .
Just like Bear Stearns did back in 2008 .
Short Commerzbank .
Short Deutsche .
Short HSBC tomorrow .
Short every fucking Bank on the Planet next week .
Shit is about to hit the fan .
Too many retards have called me an idiot for shorting wirecard right now .
I AM NOT SHORTING WIRECARD !
It could go single digits tomorrow .
It could moon on Bancruptcy news .
Short Commerzbank and Deutsche @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you can trade on eurex : The Commerzbank play is way juicier .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by stocksncocks
Ok Guys, I`ll keep this short, since its all happening so fast right now.
Wirecard committed accounting fraud. They were not able to provide an autority approved balance sheet by the deadline tomorrow. This will allow all their creditors to ask back for theyr loans. Outstanding loans are 2 Billion, which Wirecard does not have. This will likely cause them to default.
The biggest creditors are Commerzbank and Deutsche. These Idiots took stocks instead of bonds as security. The Wirecard stock went down 60% today. Commerzbank -8% and Deutsche -3% as of now.
This event is big enough to send shockwaves through the worldwide financial sector. Just like Bear Stearns did back in 2008. Short Commerzbank. Short Deutsche. Short HSBC tomorrow. Short every fucking Bank on the Planet next week. Shit is about to hit the fan.
Edit:
Too many retards have called me an idiot for shorting wirecard right now. I AM NOT SHORTING WIRECARD! It could go single digits tomorrow. It could moon on Bancruptcy news. Short Commerzbank and Deutsche instead. Or in autist language:
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$DB 6/26 9p
$DB 7/17 7p
If you can trade on eurex:
$CBK 7/17 3.5p
The Commerzbank play is way juicier.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Corporate borrowing costs hit a new all-time low as the Fed begins buying individual bonds

Does it really seem necessary for the Fed to start buying corporate bonds right now ?

Yields on investment grade US corporate bonds hit a new all-time low: 2.25%.t.co/AthqZQqVj2 pic.twitter.com/bnBmeTNeXq — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 18, 2020
Sauce twitter.com/KathyJones/status/1273256605614632960
Does it really seem necessary for the Fed to start buying corporate bonds right now?
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h/t SpontaneousDisorder


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Lying, Deadbeat Fed Fathers Starving Children but Feeds His Fat Favorites

When asked by the press if the Fed was concerned about how it has increased wealth disparity in the US with its policies , Papa Powell kept clearing his throat and parading his lamest thoughts .
“ Inequality is not related to monetary policy , ” he claimed in the Fed ’ s defense .
Ironically , for a globalist , Powell tried to blame income inequality on globalization .
He ’ s right about that to some extent , of course , in that forcing US workers to compete with incoming foreign workers willing to work for far less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fields ( literally ) where the immigrants congregate Papa Powell was , however , dodging his own institution ’ s direct contribution as well as the government ’ s direct contribution to impoverishment of the many .
How the rich get Fed Powell dissembled by saying the chasm of income disparity , which grew substantially larger during the Fed ’ s Great Recovery ( which was recovery only of the already great ) is not due to the Fed because , he said , that problem has been around for four decades … @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is no more subversive entity in the US , more destructive , more inflammatory yet out of the spotlight of public outrage , than the Federal Reserve : it is the Fed ’ s actions over the past 108 years – and especially over the past decade – that have spawned much of the anger , resentment and hatred that has permeated US society to its very core as a result of the Fed ’ s monetary policies .
Yet because much of the public fails to grasp the insidious implications of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exorbitantly rich at the expense of regular workers , popular anger at the Fed remains virtually non-existent… .
And so , taking advantage of the general public ’ s general gullibility , the Fed continues to lie and dissemble at every opportunity , of which the most recent example was last week when Powell said that “ inequality has been with us … increasingly for four decades ” … arguing that monetary policy is not a cause for that .
What he forgot to mention is that four decades ago is when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the crux of the matter because leaving the gold standard gave the Fed a LOT more room to play with money supply so that its expansion directly feeds the rich .
It took them a little while to figure out how to make that work and to get government to play along with legal deregulation that would give them the remaining freedoms they needed , but they got there : The government ’ s low capital-gains tax rate is one of the ways the government played along to benefit the rich almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their money off of capital gains , instead of by creating new factories or by their hard work .
The pour and middle class do not .
That tax break entices the rich to endlessly recycle their winnings in more assets to resell to make more gains , producing nothing and contributing nothing to the economy while getting vastly rich and amplifying the stock market asset bubble .
The Fed ’ s policies direct all new money to banks first and foremost , which then invest in stocks or bonds to make quick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The average person doesn ’ t even begin to have the money needed to play in stratosphere .
Another way the government had to be brought around was the Fed ’ s enticement ( under Alan Greenspan ) to deregulate away the Glass-Steagall Act so that investment banks and commercial banks would lose the demarkation between them , allowing banks more freedom to play in the stock market .
Once those shifts were completed , the rich could rise on the Fed ’ s magic money carpet .
Long ago in a time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made respectable money off of banks back when banks didn ’ t charge fees for the average person to keep their money there , as they felt privileged to hold your money .
Before all this Fed intervention in credit markets and interest rates , banks paid you more than you can make on today ’ s most extravagant government bonds — 5 % interest .
That ’ s why … The average person can not save for retirement with any hope of making safe income on his money .
He or she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in stocks in order for it to build even enough to keep up with inflation .
Bonds are low to negative in yield , and bank interest is a joke .
So , you ’ re pressed toward risking your retirement in stocks , whether you want to or not … or never having enough to retire on .
Heck , you used to be able to get that much interest just by salting the money away in an ordinary savings account , and it was insured !
At the same time , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once wiped out retirees ’ funds .
Powells responses were as disingenuous as his predecessor , Janet Yellen , when she used to pretend to worry about either wealth or income disparity in the US .
The average person is underFed while the rich are overFed The Fed has done nothing to help the average person while it has given trillions to banks , claiming that does help the average person because it eventually trickles down … somehow .
I ’ m hard pressed to see the trickle in wages that have remained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for inflation since the early 1970s ( back when real interest was actually paid on savings accounts like I ’ m talking about ) : It appears they didn ’ t emphasize the world “ trickle ” enough … as we barely got back to flat after half a century of waiting for the trickle .
All the while in between , we were much worse off .
Those low wages throughout the entire interim , don ’ t even count reduced benefits , such as guaranteed retirement funds .
All of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ owners make more money .
So , it ’ s not hard to see why the rich got richer and that nothing the Fed did ever trickled down to the rest .
Apparently a lot of blue-collar workers are content to be happy with that picture while people running banks are content to justify it .
If they weren ’ t , they wouldn ’ t keep voting in governments that support tax breaks that inure mostly to the wealthy and that support a Fed that creates money that always and only goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
The change in Wall Street bonuses over that time looks really nice , though : Here , unadjusted for inflation , is a picture of bankers and brokers salaries compared to people in other industries : I guess the money is trickling OK into the hands of the people the Fed most likes !
And all of that is before the Fed really kicked into action during the Great Recovery period ( for which I couldn ’ t find a graph that runs back to somewhere near the 70 ’ s .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a liar , and he gets away with it all the time !
Some of Powell ’ s other vapid statements : Powell claimed the Fed “ doesn ’ t target a particular level of assets prices.
” Of course the Fed doesn ’ t target particular prices .
( You have to parse the words carefully like when President William Jefferson Clinton said , “ It depends on what the meaning fo the word ‘ is ’ is.
” ) .
The Fed just targets a generally high-and-rising level of asset prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” to support the market from falling below that zone .
Powell also said the Fed “ wants markets to be working and investors to price risk.
” I ’ ll wait for you to get back on your chair … .
The Fed has been a heat-sinking missile aimed at destroying any hint of price discovery it can find anywhere in stocks or bonds .
Price discovery , of course , is how markets price in risk .
Free markets discover a price that compensates for losses on risk and , on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the occasional losses .
The Fed sets the price of bonds by direct manipulation of the bond market .
With the same actions , it creates money to pump stock prices up every time stock prices do try to fall as far as they would have to if they were to price risk and reward correctly .
Risk , as Powell just told us , has rarely looked this bad .
If the Fed wanted the market to price risk , it would let the market fall , at least , 50 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
He ’ s not about to do that !
So , he is blatantly lying , and , yet , most of burned-out bulbs watching him in congress appear didn ’ t even flicker when he spewed these lies .
Interest rates also price risk , but the Fed has manipulated those to zero at a time when bond holders and other creditors have rarely had more risk .
If the Fed were to stop soaking up almost-junk bonds , I guarantee investors who eventually get defaulted on because they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would reprice risk in a hurry .
It ’ s only knowing the Fed has their back because it will sop up their questionable bonds that they buy the junk so cheap .
( They just have to sell them to the Fed one step before they get downgraded to junk . )
It ’ s a wonder Powell and his predecessors manage time and again to maintain credibility with investors and government officials , except that the Fed heads feed these ninnies the narrative they want to believe .
Quarter after quarter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it is doing this week , and pretends it is all credible .
They sit there and pretend to scowl or look concerned for the public as they question Powell while the camera is on .
However , they never do anything about their voiced concerns because they know that , when the public presentation is ended , they , too , are going to the Powell Party afterward .

by David Haggith
When asked by the press if the Fed was concerned about how it has increased wealth disparity in the US with its policies, Papa Powell kept clearing his throat and parading his lamest thoughts.
“Inequality is not related to monetary policy,” he claimed in the Fed’s defense.
Powell did not answer the question directly but gave a meandering answer on the role of the Fed. Powell has a poker “tell.” When he knows his answer is disingenuous, he starts repeatedly clearing his throat. He did a lot of that while bumbling through his non-answer Wall Street on Parade
Ironically, for a globalist, Powell tried to blame income inequality on globalization. He’s right about that to some extent, of course, in that forcing US workers to compete with incoming foreign workers willing to work for far less has long suppressed US wages in those fields (literally) where the immigrants congregate
Papa Powell was, however, dodging his own institution’s direct contribution as well as the government’s direct contribution to impoverishment of the many.
How the rich get Fed
Powell dissembled by saying the chasm of income disparity, which grew substantially larger during the Fed’s Great Recovery (which was recovery only of the already great) is not due to the Fed because, he said, that problem has been around for four decades … as if the Fed has not!
There is no more subversive entity in the US, more destructive, more inflammatory yet out of the spotlight of public outrage, than the Federal Reserve: it is the Fed’s actions over the past 108 years – and especially over the past decade – that have spawned much of the anger, resentment and hatred that has permeated US society to its very core as a result of the Fed’s monetary policies. Yet because much of the public fails to grasp the insidious implications of endless money-printing which makes owners of assets exorbitantly rich at the expense of regular workers, popular anger at the Fed remains virtually non-existent…. And so, taking advantage of the general public’s general gullibility, the Fed continues to lie and dissemble at every opportunity, of which the most recent example was last week when Powell said that “inequality has been with us … increasingly for four decades” … arguing that monetary policy is not a cause for that. What he forgot to mention is that four decades ago is when the Nixon closed the gold window…. Zero Hedge
That is the crux of the matter because leaving the gold standard gave the Fed a LOT more room to play with money supply so that its expansion directly feeds the rich. It took them a little while to figure out how to make that work and to get government to play along with legal deregulation that would give them the remaining freedoms they needed, but they got there:
The government’s low capital-gains tax rate is one of the ways the government played along to benefit the rich almost exclusively because the rich make most of their money off of capital gains, instead of by creating new factories or by their hard work. The pour and middle class do not.
That tax break entices the rich to endlessly recycle their winnings in more assets to resell to make more gains, producing nothing and contributing nothing to the economy while getting vastly rich and amplifying the stock market asset bubble.
The Fed’s policies direct all new money to banks first and foremost, which then invest in stocks or bonds to make quick money by selling assets for gains. The average person doesn’t even begin to have the money needed to play in stratosphere.
Another way the government had to be brought around was the Fed’s enticement (under Alan Greenspan) to deregulate away the Glass-Steagall Act so that investment banks and commercial banks would lose the demarkation between them, allowing banks more freedom to play in the stock market.
Once those shifts were completed, the rich could rise on the Fed’s magic money carpet.
Long ago in a time forgotten, the poor and middle class made respectable money off of banks back when banks didn’t charge fees for the average person to keep their money there, as they felt privileged to hold your money. Before all this Fed intervention in credit markets and interest rates, banks paid you more than you can make on today’s most extravagant government bonds — 5% interest. That’s why …
Michael McKee of Bloomberg TV, challenged Powell on his answer, stating this:… “Inequality is not just about wages. It’s also about wealth and a number of studies have suggested that by keeping rates low for so long and targeting the markets after the Great Financial Crisis, that the Fed did contribute to wealth inequality in this country.
The average person cannot save for retirement with any hope of making safe income on his money. He or she has to put it all at risk in stocks in order for it to build even enough to keep up with inflation. Bonds are low to negative in yield, and bank interest is a joke. So, you’re pressed toward risking your retirement in stocks, whether you want to or not … or never having enough to retire on.
This decade of unprecedentedly low interest rates deprived savers (people who cannot afford the risk of the stock market) of the 4 and 5 percent interest they had been able to earn on safe instruments like Treasury notes and federally-insured Certificates of Deposit before the financial crisis.
Heck, you used to be able to get that much interest just by salting the money away in an ordinary savings account, and it was insured!
At the same time, the risky stock market has more than once wiped out retirees’ funds.
Powells responses were as disingenuous as his predecessor, Janet Yellen, when she used to pretend to worry about either wealth or income disparity in the US.
The average person is underFed while the rich are overFed
The Fed has done nothing to help the average person while it has given trillions to banks, claiming that does help the average person because it eventually trickles down … somehow.
I’m hard pressed to see the trickle in wages that have remained stagnant (or worse) when adjusted for inflation since the early 1970s (back when real interest was actually paid on savings accounts like I’m talking about):
It appears they didn’t emphasize the world “trickle” enough … as we barely got back to flat after half a century of waiting for the trickle. All the while in between, we were much worse off.
Those low wages throughout the entire interim, don’t even count reduced benefits, such as guaranteed retirement funds. All of that, however, helped the rich corporate owners make more money. So, it’s not hard to see why the rich got richer and that nothing the Fed did ever trickled down to the rest.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Apparently a lot of blue-collar workers are content to be happy with that picture while people running banks are content to justify it. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t keep voting in governments that support tax breaks that inure mostly to the wealthy and that support a Fed that creates money that always and only goes directly into the pockets of the rich!
The change in Wall Street bonuses over that time looks really nice, though:
Here, unadjusted for inflation, is a picture of bankers and brokers salaries compared to people in other industries:
Nice.
I guess the money is trickling OK into the hands of the people the Fed most likes! And all of that is before the Fed really kicked into action during the Great Recovery period (for which I couldn’t find a graph that runs back to somewhere near the 70’s.
The greatest trick the Fed ever played on the general public was convincing it that its policies were designed to directly benefit the American citizenry. They are not. They are designed to benefit its member banks and the corporatocracy that rules this country. If they were for the people, the trillions of dollars the Fed has disbursed into the financial system since the Great Recession in 2008 would have led to rising wages, faster rates of economic growth and a narrowing of the wealth disparity that is ripping this country apart. Everyone would be wealthier, but most are not. Instead, we are repeating the monetary policy steps taken in 2009 that resulted in the haves having even more, while everyone else scrambles to pick up the breadcrumbs left behind. Seeking Alpha
In other words, Papa Powell is a liar, and he gets away with it all the time!
Some of Powell’s other vapid statements:
Powell claimed the Fed “doesn’t target a particular level of assets prices.”
Of course the Fed doesn’t target particular prices. (You have to parse the words carefully like when President William Jefferson Clinton said, “It depends on what the meaning fo the word ‘is’ is.”).
The Fed just targets a generally high-and-rising level of asset prices and then does “whatever it takes” to support the market from falling below that zone.
Powell also said the Fed “wants markets to be working and investors to price risk.”
I’ll wait for you to get back on your chair ….
…
…
OK.
The Fed has been a heat-sinking missile aimed at destroying any hint of price discovery it can find anywhere in stocks or bonds. Price discovery, of course, is how markets price in risk. Free markets discover a price that compensates for losses on risk and, on average, leaves an acceptable profit after the occasional losses.
The Fed sets the price of bonds by direct manipulation of the bond market. With the same actions, it creates money to pump stock prices up every time stock prices do try to fall as far as they would have to if they were to price risk and reward correctly.
Risk, as Powell just told us, has rarely looked this bad. If the Fed wanted the market to price risk, it would let the market fall, at least, 50% to match what real risks are right now. He’s not about to do that! So, he is blatantly lying, and, yet, most of burned-out bulbs watching him in congress appear didn’t even flicker when he spewed these lies.
Interest rates also price risk, but the Fed has manipulated those to zero at a time when bond holders and other creditors have rarely had more risk.
If the Fed were to stop soaking up almost-junk bonds, I guarantee investors who eventually get defaulted on because they can’t get rid of those bonds would reprice risk in a hurry. It’s only knowing the Fed has their back because it will sop up their questionable bonds that they buy the junk so cheap. (They just have to sell them to the Fed one step before they get downgraded to junk.)
It’s a wonder Powell and his predecessors manage time and again to maintain credibility with investors and government officials, except that the Fed heads feed these ninnies the narrative they want to believe.
Quarter after quarter, congress laps this swill up, as it is doing this week, and pretends it is all credible. They sit there and pretend to scowl or look concerned for the public as they question Powell while the camera is on. However, they never do anything about their voiced concerns because they know that, when the public presentation is ended, they, too, are going to the Powell Party afterward.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--The Wealth Tax in Europe and Canada

The Wealth Tax in Europe and Canada

Both Canada and the EU are listening to Thomas Piketty and the World Economic Forum by pushing this socialist agenda @ @ @ @ @ economy .
There are major difficulties with the imposition of a wealth tax .
The @ @ @ @ @ you value a home and an entire family ’ s wealth or business ?
How @ @ @ @ @ business ?
How do people pay when they hold their wealth in illiquid assets as @ @ @ @ @ ?
Then they are compelled to sell land to pay taxes when they lack the @ @ @ @ @ as the World Economic Forum support Piketty and take a very elitist view from an @ @ @ @ @ will end wealth inequality .
Using their theory , then students in class who work @ @ @ @ @ % grade should give up and accept 75 % so those who scored 40 % @ @ @ @ @ would be equality in education .
Why would students work if they received free points @ @ @ @ @

by Martin Armstrong
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Both Canada and the EU are listening to Thomas Piketty and the World Economic Forum by pushing this socialist agenda to take over the world economy. There are major difficulties with the imposition of a wealth tax. The question becomes, how do you value a home and an entire family’s wealth or business? How do you value a private business? How do people pay when they hold their wealth in illiquid assets as was the case with farmers? Then they are compelled to sell land to pay taxes when they lack the cash. Marxist organizations such as the World Economic Forum support Piketty and take a very elitist view from an ivory tower, proclaiming this will end wealth inequality. Using their theory, then students in class who work hard to get a 95% grade should give up and accept 75% so those who scored 40% could still pass. That would be equality in education. Why would students work if they received free points and could party instead?


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Retail Sales Headlines Are A Complete Joke

The stock market promoting mainstream media this morning reported “ U.S .
Retail Sales Rose Record 18 % in May ” ( e.g .
the Wall St Journal ) .
The S & P futures jumped from up 45 points to up 90 points .
But , as usual , the details are in the fine print of the report itself , and it ’ s apparent that nobody in the financial media bothered to look beyond the headlines .
In fact , the 18 % rise is measured from April ’ s report , which was heavily depressed due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of many retail businesses .
Funny thing about using the percentage change as the metric of measurement .
If April had one dollar of retail sales and May had two dollars , the percentage gain would have been 100 % .
Measured from May 2019 , the “ seasonally adjusted ” numbers show that May 2020 retail sales dropped 6.1 % .
In retail sales terms , especially given the healthy rate of inflation built into the numbers , that ’ s a cliff-dive .
If the numbers had been adjusted for price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been even larger .
Here ’ s the report if you want to check for yourself – Retail Sales .
Then there ’ s the credibility of the data collection , which done by the notoriously unreliable Census Bureau .
The Census Bureau would have us believe that sales at restaurants ( “ food services and drinking places ” if you bother to look at the report ) gained 29 % from April to May .
I find this impossible to believe given that most of the country , including many restaurants , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The gross negligence in this particular number is likely attributable to the highly opaque “ seasonal adjustments.
” Same for auto sales , which the CB would have us believe increased 50 % in May from April .
Certainly the 23.6 % drop in the Cass Freight index belies the numbers from the Census Bureau , especially for autos .
I play tennis with someone who owns a trucking business that transports new vehicles from OEMs to dealers .
His business completely stopped until late May .
John Williams , of Shadowstats.com @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales will be reversed in June ’ s report .
Keep in mind as the various economic reports for May and June hit the tape , the percentage change from April to May and from May to June will make it appear as if economic activity is bouncing back strongly .
In truth , with the economy re-opening , the May and June numbers will be calculated on a percentage basis from severely depressed level in April and an inordinately depressed level in May , while the nominal numbers will be considerably lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In fact , it ’ s going to take at least a few months before the real fall-out from the closure of the economy is known .
As an example , commercial real estate company Cushman & Wakefield has forecast that as many as 25,000 stores will close in 2020 – mostly in malls .
This not only affects directly the employees who work at those stores , but also the surrounding businesses that benefit from store employees who spend money while at work ( food establishments , etc . )
Without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close to being in the “ V ” recovery that is implied by the action in the stock market .
The immediate economic impact of high unemployment is deferred somewhat by Government “ stimulus ” payments and unemployment benefits .
Many of those unemployed can still pay some bills and feed their families while stimulus payments continue and unemployment benefits are not exhausted .
But once those pools of assistance are tapped out , the economic impact will be severe .

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
The stock market promoting mainstream media this morning reported “U.S. Retail Sales Rose Record 18% in May” (e.g. the Wall St Journal). The S&P futures jumped from up 45 points to up 90 points.
But, as usual, the details are in the fine print of the report itself, and it’s apparent that nobody in the financial media bothered to look beyond the headlines.
In fact, the 18% rise is measured from April’s report, which was heavily depressed due to the shelter-in-place restrictions and the closure of many retail businesses. Funny thing about using the percentage change as the metric of measurement. If April had one dollar of retail sales and May had two dollars, the percentage gain would have been 100%.
Measured from May 2019, the “seasonally adjusted” numbers show that May 2020 retail sales dropped 6.1%. In retail sales terms, especially given the healthy rate of inflation built into the numbers, that’s a cliff-dive. If the numbers had been adjusted for price inflation, the percentage decline would have been even larger. Here’s the report if you want to check for yourself – Retail Sales.
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Then there’s the credibility of the data collection, which done by the notoriously unreliable Census Bureau. The Census Bureau would have us believe that sales at restaurants (“food services and drinking places” if you bother to look at the report) gained 29% from April to May. I find this impossible to believe given that most of the country, including many restaurants, were still shut down until late May. The gross negligence in this particular number is likely attributable to the highly opaque “seasonal adjustments.”
Same for auto sales, which the CB would have us believe increased 50% in May from April. Certainly the 23.6% drop in the Cass Freight index belies the numbers from the Census Bureau, especially for autos. I play tennis with someone who owns a trucking business that transports new vehicles from OEMs to dealers. His business completely stopped until late May. John Williams, of Shadowstats.com, believes the May number for auto sales will be reversed in June’s report.
Keep in mind as the various economic reports for May and June hit the tape, the percentage change from April to May and from May to June will make it appear as if economic activity is bouncing back strongly. In truth, with the economy re-opening, the May and June numbers will be calculated on a percentage basis from severely depressed level in April and an inordinately depressed level in May, while the nominal numbers will be considerably lower compared to the same month in 2019.
In fact, it’s going to take at least a few months before the real fall-out from the closure of the economy is known. As an example, commercial real estate company Cushman & Wakefield has forecast that as many as 25,000 stores will close in 2020 – mostly in malls. This not only affects directly the employees who work at those stores, but also the surrounding businesses that benefit from store employees who spend money while at work (food establishments, etc.)
Without question the economy is not even remotely close to being in the “V” recovery that is implied by the action in the stock market. The immediate economic impact of high unemployment is deferred somewhat by Government “stimulus” payments and unemployment benefits. Many of those unemployed can still pay some bills and feed their families while stimulus payments continue and unemployment benefits are not exhausted. But once those pools of assistance are tapped out, the economic impact will be severe.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--“All bets are off” as the Bank of England holds a “secret” press conference

Today is the turn of the Bank of England to take centre stage .
On a personal level it raises a wry smile as when I was a market maker in UK short sterling options ( known as a local ) on the LIFFE floor it was the most important day of the month and often make or break .
At other times it has been a more implicit big deal .
Actually there is no likely change to short-term interest-rates on the cards .
Perusing my old stomping ground shows that in fact not much action is expected at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to March 2024 when maybe a rise to the giddy heights of 0.25 % is expected .
Personally I think there is a solid chance we will see negative interest-rates first but that is not how the market is set this morning .
Also I note that volumes are not great suggesting they are not expecting much today either .
If course some may be “ more equal than others ” to use that famous phrase as the Monetary Policy Committee voted last night following one of the previous Governor ’ s ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He was of the opinion that getting his Minutes and PR prepared was more important than the risk of the vote leaking .
Whereas the reality is that central banks are in fact rather leaky vessels .
There will have been consternation at the Bank of England when this news arrived at its hallowed doors .
From the BBC .
I do not know if the new Governor Andrew Bailey has the same sharp temper as his predecessor Mark Carney but if he does it would have been in display .
After all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market going once we peer beneath the veneer .
Nearly £118 billion of cheap funding ( at the Bank Rate of 0.1 % ) has been deployed via the Term Funding Scheme ( s ) to keep the housing market wheels oiled .
Also the news looks timed to just precede the MPC meeting .
In terms of detail there it is aimed at first-time buyers which is only likely to anger the Governor more .
If we look back in time this is a familiar feature of house price falls .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its very nature tends to pull house prices lower .
For larger falls then it usually requites surveyors to join the party by down valuing some properties which as they are pack animals can spread like wildfire .
The quote below shows that the situation is complex .
We have already seen an extraordinary set of moves here .
We have a record low interest-rate of 0.1 % which is quite something from a body which had previously assured us that the “ lower-bound ” was 0.5 % .
There is a link @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because it was building societies like the Nationwide and their creaking IT systems which got the blame for this , although ironically I think they did us a favour .
Next comes a whole barrage of Quantitative Easing and Credit Easing policies .
The headliner here is the purchases of UK bonds ( Gilts ) which by my maths passed the £600 billion mark just before 2 pm yesterday as it progresses at a weekly rate of £13.5 billion .
This means that they are implicitly financing the UK public-sector right now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Means issue arose .
We see that as I note that the UK Debt Management Office has issued some £14.4 billion of new UK bonds or Gilts this week .
Whilst the Bank of England did not buy any of these it did oil the wheels with its purchases which means that the net issuance figure is £900 million which is rather different to £14.4 billion .
On that road we see how both the two-year yield ( -0.07 % ) and the five-year yield ( -0,02 % ) are negative as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yield is a mere 0.38 % .
There has also been some £15 billion of Corporate Bond buying so far .
This policy has not gone well as so desperate are they to find bonds to buy that they have bought some of Apple ’ s bonds .
Yes the company with the enormous cash pile .
Also I sure the Danes are grateful we are supporting their shipping company Maersk as it appears to need it , but they are probably somewhat bemused .
As to credit easing I have already noted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also the Covid Financing Facility where it buys Commercial Paper .
Some £16.3 billion has been bought so far .
Those who like a hot sausage roll may be pleased Greggs have been supported to the tune of £30 million , although North London is likely to be split on tribal lines by the £175 million for Spurs .
These days central banks and governments are hand in glove .
Operationally that is required because the QE and credit easing measures require the backing of the taxpayer via HM Treasury .
More prosaically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultra low levels due to Bank of England policies and will do doubt raise a glass of champagne to them .
Amazingly some put on such powerful sunglasses that they call this independence .
Perhaps they were the ones who disallowed Sheffield United ’ s goal last night .
However the ability to help the economy is more problematical and was once described as like “ pushing on a string ” .
This is not helped by the issues with our official statistics as we not inflation has been under recorded as I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was 5 % + not the 3.9 % reported ) and the monthly drop of 20.4 % in GDP has a large error range too .
Because of that I have some sympathy for the MPC but I have no sympathy for the “ secret ” press conference it is holding at 1 pm .
Then its “ friends ” will be able to release the details at 2:30 pm with no official confirmation until tomorrow .
So there are two issues .
That is a form of corruption and debases what is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Next it is supposed to be a publicly accountable institution with transparent policy .
Along the way it means that the chances of a more aggressive policy announcement have just risen or as the bookie says in the film Snatch .

by Shaun Richards
Today is the turn of the Bank of England to take centre stage. On a personal level it raises a wry smile as when I was a market maker in UK short sterling options (known as a local) on the LIFFE floor it was the most important day of the month and often make or break. At other times it has been a more implicit big deal. Actually there is no likely change to short-term interest-rates on the cards. Perusing my old stomping ground shows that in fact not much action is expected at all with a pretty flat curve out to March 2024 when maybe a rise to the giddy heights of 0.25% is expected. Personally I think there is a solid chance we will see negative interest-rates first but that is not how the market is set this morning. Also I note that volumes are not great suggesting they are not expecting much today either.
If course some may be “more equal than others” to use that famous phrase as the Monetary Policy Committee voted last night following one of the previous Governor’s ( Mark Carney) “improvements”. He was of the opinion that getting his Minutes and PR prepared was more important than the risk of the vote leaking. Whereas the reality is that central banks are in fact rather leaky vessels.
Nationwide
There will have been consternation at the Bank of England when this news arrived at its hallowed doors. From the BBC.
The UK’s biggest building society has tripled the minimum deposit it will ask for from first-time buyers. The Nationwide will lower its ceiling for mortgage lending to new customers in response to the coronavirus crisis.It said the change, from Thursday, was due to “these unprecedented times and an uncertain mortgage market”.
I do not know if the new Governor Andrew Bailey has the same sharp temper as his predecessor Mark Carney but if he does it would have been in display. After all policy is essentially to get the housing market going once we peer beneath the veneer. Nearly £118 billion of cheap funding ( at the Bank Rate of 0.1%) has been deployed via the Term Funding Scheme(s) to keep the housing market wheels oiled. Also the news looks timed to just precede the MPC meeting.
In terms of detail there it is aimed at first-time buyers which is only likely to anger the Governor more.
First-time buyers are likely to be the most significantly affected because they often have smaller amounts saved to get on the property ladder. Nationwide has reduced the proportion of a home’s value that is willing to lend from 95% to 85%. So for example, if a property costs £100,000, a new buyer would now need a £15,000 deposit rather than a £5,000 deposit.
If we look back in time this is a familiar feature of house price falls. As mortgage borrowing becomes more restrained that by its very nature tends to pull house prices lower. For larger falls then it usually requites surveyors to join the party by down valuing some properties which as they are pack animals can spread like wildfire. The quote below shows that the situation is complex.
Some lenders, such as HSBC, still have mortgages with a 90% loan-to-value ratio. However, there is more demand for that type of mortgage than many banks have the capacity to deal with at the moment, he said.
Policy
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We have already seen an extraordinary set of moves here. We have a record low interest-rate of 0.1% which is quite something from a body which had previously assured us that the “lower-bound” was 0.5%. There is a link to today’s news from this because it was building societies like the Nationwide and their creaking IT systems which got the blame for this, although ironically I think they did us a favour.
Next comes a whole barrage of Quantitative Easing and Credit Easing policies. The headliner here is the purchases of UK bonds ( Gilts) which by my maths passed the £600 billion mark just before 2 pm yesterday as it progresses at a weekly rate of £13.5 billion. This means that they are implicitly financing the UK public-sector right now, something I pointed out when the Ways and Means issue arose. We see that as I note that the UK Debt Management Office has issued some £14.4 billion of new UK bonds or Gilts this week. Whilst the Bank of England did not buy any of these it did oil the wheels with its purchases which means that the net issuance figure is £900 million which is rather different to £14.4 billion. On that road we see how both the two-year yield ( -0.07%) and the five-year yield ( -0,02%) are negative as I type this. Even the fifty-year yield is a mere 0.38%.
There has also been some £15 billion of Corporate Bond buying so far. This policy has not gone well as so desperate are they to find bonds to buy that they have bought some of Apple’s bonds. Yes the company with the enormous cash pile. Also I sure the Danes are grateful we are supporting their shipping company Maersk as it appears to need it, but they are probably somewhat bemused.
As to credit easing I have already noted the Term Funding Scheme and there is also the Covid Financing Facility where it buys Commercial Paper. Some £16.3 billion has been bought so far. Those who like a hot sausage roll may be pleased Greggs have been supported to the tune of £30 million, although North London is likely to be split on tribal lines by the £175 million for Spurs.
Comment
These days central banks and governments are hand in glove. Operationally that is required because the QE and credit easing measures require the backing of the taxpayer via HM Treasury. More prosaically the Chancellor Rishi Sunak can borrow at ultra low levels due to Bank of England policies and will do doubt raise a glass of champagne to them. Amazingly some put on such powerful sunglasses that they call this independence. Perhaps they were the ones who disallowed Sheffield United’s goal last night.
However the ability to help the economy is more problematical and was once described as like “pushing on a string”. This is not helped by the issues with our official statistics as we not inflation has been under recorded as I explained yesterday as has unemployment ( it was 5% + not the 3.9% reported) and the monthly drop of 20.4% in GDP has a large error range too. Because of that I have some sympathy for the MPC but I have no sympathy for the “secret” press conference it is holding at 1 pm. Then its “friends” will be able to release the details at 2:30 pm with no official confirmation until tomorrow.
So there are two issues. That is a form of corruption and debases what is left of free markets even more. Next it is supposed to be a publicly accountable institution with transparent policy. Along the way it means that the chances of a more aggressive policy announcement have just risen or as the bookie says in the film Snatch.
All bets are off


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Will the Fed Cap Rates?

Will the Fed Cap Rates?

QUESTION : Do you think the Fed will venture into capping the long-term rates as they did during World War II ?
ANSWER : There is much talk that the Fed will go into yield-curve control in the near future .
Some expect that if the Fed does employ yield-curve controls , they expect that yields would be capped on either the two-year , three-year , or five-year Treasury bonds .
Any time the Fed has attempted to fight the free market , they have lost .
I went into that in detail in the book , “ Manipulating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed cap rates in April 1942 .
They would have to buy debt if the rates exceeded the arbitrary cap .
A widely-read journalist at the time , Sylvia Porter ( 1913-1991 ) , reported that the Treasury Secretary Morganthau Jr. was acting like a dictator .
In 1951 , with the Korean War , inflation began to soar and the Fed entered an all-out war with the White House .
They refused to continue to cap rates , for they would end up buying all the war debt .
The same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have reached the point of no return .
Governments are using this virus because they have lost the ability to fund themselves by selling bonds with rates locked into negative positions in Europe and Japan .
The Fed has been trying to hold up the world , but they are losing grip .
Any attempt to cap rates will result in the Fed finding themselves in the same position of having to buy all government debt .
If the Fed even tries to take that position , once the world sees that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enter the Monetary Crisis Cycle where everything comes undone .

by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Do you think the Fed will venture into capping the long-term rates as they did during World War II?
JH
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ANSWER: There is much talk that the Fed will go into yield-curve control in the near future. Some expect that if the Fed does employ yield-curve controls, they expect that yields would be capped on either the two-year, three-year, or five-year Treasury bonds. Any time the Fed has attempted to fight the free market, they have lost.
I went into that in detail in the book, “Manipulating the World Economy.” The Treasury requested that the Fed cap rates in April 1942. They would have to buy debt if the rates exceeded the arbitrary cap. A widely-read journalist at the time, Sylvia Porter (1913-1991), reported that the Treasury Secretary Morganthau Jr. was acting like a dictator. In 1951, with the Korean War, inflation began to soar and the Fed entered an all-out war with the White House. They refused to continue to cap rates, for they would end up buying all the war debt.
The same thing will happen this time. We have reached the point of no return. Governments are using this virus because they have lost the ability to fund themselves by selling bonds with rates locked into negative positions in Europe and Japan. The Fed has been trying to hold up the world, but they are losing grip. Any attempt to cap rates will result in the Fed finding themselves in the same position of having to buy all government debt. If the Fed even tries to take that position, once the world sees that the Fed is also powerless, we will enter the Monetary Crisis Cycle where everything comes undone.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Officially In The Bubble Business: Fed Couldn’t Even Stomach A 10% Drop In Stocks

The Fed will soon be buying stocks .
Earlier this week , the Fed announced that it will begin buying corporate bonds from individual companies .
Before this announcement , the Fed was already involved in the : • The municipal bond markets ( debt issued by states and cities ) • The corporate bond markets by index ( debt issued by corporations ) • And the asset-backed security markets ( everything from student loans to certificates of deposit and more ) .
With the introduction of individual corporate bonds , the Fed is now one step closer to buying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has made ZERO references to stopping its monetary madness .
Just yesterday Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized to Congress that the Fed is “ years away from halting its assets monetization scheme.
” Again , the Fed is explicitly telling us that it plans on buying assets ( Treasuries , municipal bonds , corporate bonds , etc . )
for years to come .
The next step will be for the Fed to buy stocks .
It won ’ t be the first central bank to do so… The central bank of Switzerland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been buying stocks for years .
Yes .
It literally prints money and buys stocks in the U.S. stock markets .
Then there ’ s Japan ’ s central bank , called the Bank of Japan .
It also prints money and buys stocks outright .
As of March 2019 , it owned 80 % of Japan ’ s ETFs .
The BoJ is also a top-10 shareholder in over 50 % of the companies that trade on the Japanese stock market .
If you think this can ’ t happen in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told us in 2019 that it would be forced to engage in EXTREME monetary policies during the next downturn .
Fast forward to today , and the Fed is doing precisely this .
Heck , it couldn ’ t even handle a 10 % correction without introducing a new monetary scheme… and this is AFTER one of the sharpest rallies in years !
We are now entering the greatest bubble of all time : a situation in which the Fed will spend trillions and trillions of dollars to corner all risk in an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As I write this , the Fed has already spent over $ 3 trillion in the last three months .
I expect this will soon be $ 5 trillion or even $ 6 trillion before the end of 2021 .
On that note , we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE contrarian investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead .
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm .
And it explains in very simply terms how to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the precious metals sector and precious metals mining .
We are making just 100 copies available to the public .
There are just 3 left .
To pick up yours , swing by :

by Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & Capital
The Fed will soon be buying stocks.
Earlier this week, the Fed announced that it will begin buying corporate bonds from individual companies. Before this announcement, the Fed was already involved in the:
The Treasury markets (US sovereign debt)
The municipal bond markets (debt issued by states and cities)
The corporate bond markets by index (debt issued by corporations)
The commercial paper markets (short-term corporate debt market)
And the asset-backed security markets (everything from student loans to certificates of deposit and more).
With the introduction of individual corporate bonds, the Fed is now one step closer to buying stocks outright.
Indeed, the Fed has made ZERO references to stopping its monetary madness. Just yesterday Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized to Congress that the Fed is “years away from halting its assets monetization scheme.”
Again, the Fed is explicitly telling us that it plans on buying assets (Treasuries, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, etc.) for years to come.
The next step will be for the Fed to buy stocks.
It won’t be the first central bank to do so…
The central bank of Switzerland, called the Swiss National Bank has been buying stocks for years. Yes. It literally prints money and buys stocks in the U.S. stock markets.
Then there’s Japan’s central bank, called the Bank of Japan. It also prints money and buys stocks outright. As of March 2019, it owned 80% of Japan’s ETFs.
Yes, 80%.
The BoJ is also a top-10 shareholder in over 50% of the companies that trade on the Japanese stock market.
If you think this can’t happen in the US, think again. The Fed told us in 2019 that it would be forced to engage in EXTREME monetary policies during the next downturn.
Fast forward to today, and the Fed is doing precisely this. Heck, it couldn’t even handle a 10% correction without introducing a new monetary scheme… and this is AFTER one of the sharpest rallies in years!
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Put another way…
We are now entering the greatest bubble of all time: a situation in which the Fed will spend trillions and trillions of dollars to corner all risk in an effort to reflate the financial system.
As I write this, the Fed has already spent over $3 trillion in the last three months. I expect this will soon be $5 trillion or even $6 trillion before the end of 2021.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE contrarian investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU through care investing in the precious metals sector and precious metals mining.
We are making just 100 copies available to the public.
There are just 3 left.
To pick up yours, swing by:
phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Wow Al Qaeda leader taken out by ‘secret’ US missile filled with knives dubbed the ‘ninja bomb’

The journey of two senior Al Qaeda-aligned commanders in northwestern Syria on Sunday was suddenly cut short by a targeted @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t appear that they were killed by explosives , but a missile packed @ @ @ @ @ an analysis by “ The War Zone , ” the R9X doesn ’ t explode @ @ @ @ @ “ that are stowed inside and then deploy through the skin of the missile seconds @ @ @ @ @ it shreds anything in its tracks , ” flying directly into designated targets .
Compared @ @ @ @ @ which ignites a potent blast , leaves a mangled mess in its wake and runs @ @ @ @ @ within a 700-foot radius , the new modification is considered to be quite the advancement @ @ @ @ @ danger zone of 30 inches .
www.foxnews.com/world/al-qaeda-secret-us-missile-knives-hellfire-ninja-bomb

Video included with story.
The journey of two senior Al Qaeda-aligned commanders in northwestern Syria on Sunday was suddenly cut short by a targeted U.S.-led strike — only it doesn’t appear that they were killed by explosives, but a missile packed with knives.
According to an analysis by “The War Zone,” the R9X doesn’t explode and wields six long blades “that are stowed inside and then deploy through the skin of the missile seconds before impact to ensure that it shreds anything in its tracks,” flying directly into designated targets. Compared to the traditional Hellfire, which ignites a potent blast, leaves a mangled mess in its wake and runs the risk of killing others within a 700-foot radius, the new modification is considered to be quite the advancement with a 100 percent deadly danger zone of 30 inches.
www.foxnews.com/world/al-qaeda-secret-us-missile-knives-hellfire-ninja-bomb
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h/t Backwash


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Just sent letters to the Democrat governors of NY, NJ, CA, PA, and MI demanding they explain why the

Just sent letters to the Democrat governors of NY, NJ, CA, PA, and MI demanding they explain why they ignored protocols and forced COVID-19 patients into nursing homes.The outcome was devastating.

🚨 Just sent letters to the Democrat governors of NY , NJ , CA , PA , and MI demanding @ @ @ @ @ protocols and forced COVID-19 patients into nursing homes .
Families who lost loved ones deserve @ @ @ @ @ avoidable .
pic.twitter.com/jfizJJSyfV

🚨 Just sent letters to the Democrat governors of NY, NJ, CA, PA, and MI demanding they explain why they ignored protocols and forced COVID-19 patients into nursing homes.
The outcome was devastating.
Families who lost loved ones deserve answers. This tragedy was avoidable. pic.twitter.com/jfizJJSyfV
— Steve Scalise (@SteveScalise) June 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-18--Bongino: “FBI Sought to ‘Bug’ Mike Flynn’s Office”

In this episode , I address the latest outrageous attack by the tech tyrants on conservative websites and content .
@ @ @ @ @ Executive Order on police reform and what it really means for our police departments .
@ @ @ @ @ between chokeholds and neck restraints .

In this episode, I address the latest outrageous attack by the tech tyrants on conservative websites and content. I also address the Trump Executive Order on police reform and what it really means for our police departments. I also explain the difference between chokeholds and neck restraints.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!