investmentwatchblog--2020-07-13--Scientists Discover That The One Big Assumption That Everyone Has Been Making About COVID-19 May Be

Scientists Discover That The One Big Assumption That Everyone Has Been Making About COVID-19 May Be Dead Wrong

Over the past several months , there has been a tremendous amount of debate about almost every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic .
People have been eager to debate about the severity of the virus , they have been eager to debate about the wisdom of the lockdowns , and they have been eager to debate about the effectiveness of wearing masks .
But the one thing that everyone could pretty much agree on is that eventually this pandemic would end .
Virtually all of us assumed that one way or another eventually most of the population would develop COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that point the pandemic would fizzle out .
Unfortunately , it appears that was not a safe assumption to make .
Yes , those that have had COVID-19 do develop antibodies .
But two new scientific studies have discovered that those antibodies start to fade very , very quickly .
For example , a study that was recently conducted in China found that more than 90 percent of COVID-19 patients experience steep declines in COVID-19 antibodies “ within 2 to 3 months ” … A new study from China showed that antibodies faded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients during convalescence , raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward .
The study , which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients , showed that more than 90 % of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G ( IgG ) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection , according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine .
Further , 40 % of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large study that was just conducted in Spain found that some patients that had initially successfully developed antibodies “ no longer had antibodies weeks later ” … Needless to say , this is absolutely devastating news , and it has very serious implications for vaccine development… If antibodies can fade in some patients within weeks , and if just about everyone loses them after a few months , that would render any vaccine almost completely useless .
And if these findings are confirmed , we can pretty much forget about ever achieving “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are potentially facing a future in which COVID-19 will be with us permanently , and people will need to understand that there is a possibility that they will be able to get infected repeatedly .
Sadly , there is evidence that this is already starting to happen for some patients .
In a recent article for Vox , a doctor in Washington D.C. named D. Clay Ackerly shared that one of his patients got infected with COVID-19 again three months after being infected the first time… And in that same article , Dr. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see similar cases… .
If you stop and really think about what all of this means , it will chill you to the core .
It means that COVID-19 is never going away .
And every time you get it , the more severe it is likely to be .
Each time it will do even more permanent damage to your system until it finally finishes you off .
I seriously wish that what I was telling you was not true .
I do not want to have to worry about a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my house .
But sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything is going to be okay somehow is not going to do us any good .
In fact , denial can kill you .
A 37-year-old Ohio man named Richard Rose originally thought that all of the fuss about COVID-19 was just “ hype ” , and he angrily insisted that he would never buy a mask .
The following is what he posted on Facebook on April 28th… Sadly , he eventually got infected , and COVID-19 killed him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take him down , it could potentially take just about anyone down .
So please take this pandemic seriously .
Over the past week , we have seen daily numbers soar to levels that we have never seen before , and some experts believe that the numbers will continue to go higher as we approach the end of the year .
And as I just discussed above , if those that have had the virus quickly lose immunity , there will be nothing to stop this virus from sweeping across the globe year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot more scientific studies need to be conducted , and hopefully those additional studies will show that the studies that were done in China and Spain were completely wrong .
But at this point the outlook for fighting this virus is exceedingly bleak , and scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a pandemic that is even worse comes along .

by Michael Snyder
Over the past several months, there has been a tremendous amount of debate about almost every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. People have been eager to debate about the severity of the virus, they have been eager to debate about the wisdom of the lockdowns, and they have been eager to debate about the effectiveness of wearing masks. But the one thing that everyone could pretty much agree on is that eventually this pandemic would end. Virtually all of us assumed that one way or another eventually most of the population would develop COVID-19 antibodies and that once we got to that point the pandemic would fizzle out. Unfortunately, it appears that was not a safe assumption to make.
Yes, those that have had COVID-19 do develop antibodies.
But two new scientific studies have discovered that those antibodies start to fade very, very quickly.
For example, a study that was recently conducted in China found that more than 90 percent of COVID-19 patients experience steep declines in COVID-19 antibodies “within 2 to 3 months”…
A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward. The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. Further, 40% of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were released from isolation.
And a very large study that was just conducted in Spain found that some patients that had initially successfully developed antibodies “no longer had antibodies weeks later”…
A large study from Spain showed that antibodies can disappear weeks after people have tested positive, causing some to question how possible it will be to attain herd immunity. A study published in medical journal Lancet showed 14% of people who tested positive for antibodies no longer had antibodies weeks later.
Needless to say, this is absolutely devastating news, and it has very serious implications for vaccine development…
Such findings have implications for vaccine development, since the efficacy of a vaccine hinges on the idea that a dose of weakened or dead virus can prompt your body to generate antibodies that protect you from future infection. If those antibodies are fleeting, a vaccine’s protection would be fleeting too. Short-lived antibodies also diminish hopes of achieving widespread or permanent herd immunity.
If antibodies can fade in some patients within weeks, and if just about everyone loses them after a few months, that would render any vaccine almost completely useless.
And if these findings are confirmed, we can pretty much forget about ever achieving “herd immunity”.
Instead, we are potentially facing a future in which COVID-19 will be with us permanently, and people will need to understand that there is a possibility that they will be able to get infected repeatedly.
Sadly, there is evidence that this is already starting to happen for some patients. In a recent article for Vox, a doctor in Washington D.C. named D. Clay Ackerly shared that one of his patients got infected with COVID-19 again three months after being infected the first time…
“Wait. I can catch Covid twice?” my 50-year-old patient asked in disbelief. It was the beginning of July, and he had just tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.
And in that same article, Dr. Ackerly explained that other doctors are starting to see similar cases….
Recent reports and conversations with physician colleagues suggest my patient is not alone. Two patients in New Jersey, for instance, appear to have contracted Covid-19 a second time almost two months after fully recovering from their first infection. Daniel Griffin, a physician and researcher at Columbia in New York, recently described a case of presumed reinfection on the This Week in Virology podcast.
If you stop and really think about what all of this means, it will chill you to the core.
It means that COVID-19 is never going away.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And every time you get it, the more severe it is likely to be. Each time it will do even more permanent damage to your system until it finally finishes you off.
I seriously wish that what I was telling you was not true. I do not want to have to worry about a potentially deadly virus every time I leave my house.
But sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything is going to be okay somehow is not going to do us any good.
In fact, denial can kill you.
A 37-year-old Ohio man named Richard Rose originally thought that all of the fuss about COVID-19 was just “hype”, and he angrily insisted that he would never buy a mask. The following is what he posted on Facebook on April 28th…
‘Let make this clear,’ he wrote, in a post that was shared 10,000 times. ‘I’m not buying a ******* mask. I’ve made it this far by not buying into that damn hype.’
Sadly, he eventually got infected, and COVID-19 killed him on July 3rd…
Richard Rose, a 37-year-old man from Port Clinton, Ohio, recently died from coronavirus after slamming “hype” about the pandemic on Facebook. Rose’s family told Cleveland CBS affiliate 19 News the US Army veteran died at home on July 3, just three days after testing positive for COVID-19.
He was a healthy 37-year-old man.
If the virus can take him down, it could potentially take just about anyone down.
So please take this pandemic seriously.
Over the past week, we have seen daily numbers soar to levels that we have never seen before, and some experts believe that the numbers will continue to go higher as we approach the end of the year.
And as I just discussed above, if those that have had the virus quickly lose immunity, there will be nothing to stop this virus from sweeping across the globe year after year.
Needless to say, a lot more scientific studies need to be conducted, and hopefully those additional studies will show that the studies that were done in China and Spain were completely wrong.
But at this point the outlook for fighting this virus is exceedingly bleak, and scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a pandemic that is even worse comes along.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-13--How Do We Change the Leadership of our Quasi-Sovereign Big Tech Neofeudal Nobility?

You better bow low and pay up , peasant , or your voice in the digital world will disappear just as quickly as your democracy ’ s control over Big Tech .
Who ’ s the junior partner in global hegemony , Big Tech or the U.S. government ?
The question would have been laughable just a few years ago , but now it ’ s a viable debate when we ask questions like : which one plays a larger role in your daily life , Big Tech platforms or the government ?
If controlling the flow of data is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then who owns control of data flows ?
As we all know , the answer is Big Tech platforms : Google , Facebook , Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , Twitter , Netflix et al .
As Mark , Jesse and I discuss in our latest salon , The Rise and Fall of the Neo-Feudal Network State , these platforms have become defacto sovereign states with global hegemony over surveillance , censorship , data collection and behavioral influence–what Jesse calls network states .
Since the leadership of these private-sector sovereign entities is effectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : these platforms are private , closed source systems , managed by black-box algorithms hidden from users and regulators .
This is the acme of neofeudalism : there is no democratic control at all by users or citizens .
Source : ‘ Too big to fail ’ : why even a historic ad boycott won ’ t change Facebook .
Whether Facebook will ever hit upon a more coherent approach to protecting the free expression of the powerless as well as the powerful depends on whether it ever comes to grip with its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the history of the world .
( emphasis added by CHS ) “ Facebook is governing human expression more than any government does or ever has , ” said Susan Benesch , a faculty associate at Harvard University ’ s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society .
“ They have taken on the task of defining hate speech and other unacceptable speech , which is a quasi-sovereign power… and we the public have no opportunity to contribute to the decision-making , as would be the case if the decisions were being made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company executives ’ paying lip service to the concept of democracy from time to time , Facebook is structurally monarchical .
To the University of Virginia media studies professor Siva Vaidhyanathan , campaigners against Facebook need to come to grips with the global nature of its threat .
“ The US got off easy in 2016– the same year that Rodrigo Duterte took over the Philippines by riding Facebook to victory , and two years after Narendra Modi took over India by riding Facebook to victory .
Much of the world suffers from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the US.
” Vaidhyanathan argued that solutions to Facebook ’ s ills can not be achieved with oversight from above but will require a more fundamental shift from below .
“ The root of Facebook is the fact that it is a global intrusive surveillance system that leverages all that behavioral data to target both ads and non-ad content at us.
” Source : ‘ Too big to fail ’ : why even a historic ad boycott won ’ t change Facebook .
In other words , the lords of Big Tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the peasants and serfs are powerless .
That is the perfection of neofeudalism .
As Mark and Jesse posit , this has effectively flipped the central states ( governments ) into the junior partners of the privately owned network state/central state global hegemony .
In response , governments now view the quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms domiciled in their borders as key allies in the struggle for global hegemony .
Hence we are witnessing pushback against Chinese social-media giant TikTok , which as Jesse points out , is indeed a global platform for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ et al .
Recall that propaganda isn ’ t just what you ’ re allowed to see , it ’ s also what you ’ re not allowed to see and also what ’ s being promoted on Page One in your feed and what ’ s been buried on Page 23 ( to use an old-media analogy ) .
Meanwhile , these privately owned quasi-sovereign networks are immensely profitable , as they sell the data they collect to advertisers and marketers , including political campaigns .
Apple , Google , Amazon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and influence than traditional political advocacy groups because their cash hoards are so stupendous .
The feedback loop is ominous : as government regulators are throttled or marginalized by political pressure bought by privately owned quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms , the platforms are in effect protected from any democratic control exerted by the citizenry in their nominal “ home nation , ” not to mention the citizenry they influence in other nations .
Unlike the old monopolies like Standard Oil , the quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms are the media , so there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power .
As we discuss in the podcast , their control is ( in Jesse ’ s term ) molecular , so they ’ ve effectively dismantled the legacy social-political structures such as working class , middle class , etc .
With mass media replaced by Big Tech ’ s data-flow / behavioral-control molecular media , political coherence has been lost , and so divide-and conquer control mechanisms are now essentially infinite : any group , no matter how coherent , can be splintered into warring fragments by the Big Tech Neofeudal Nobility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data and they can use it however they want , with no limits or controls by users , citizens or nominally democratic governments .
How do we change the leadership of our Neofeudal Nobility , the privately owned , quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms ?
The short answer is : we don ’ t .
There is no mechanism left for influencing anything in the monarchies of Facebook , Google , Apple , Amazon , et al .
Meet the new boss , worse than the old boss .
You better bow low and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voice in the digital world will disappear just as quickly as your democracy ’ s control over Big Tech .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
You better bow low and pay up, peasant, or your voice in the digital world will disappear just as quickly as your democracy’s control over Big Tech.
Who’s the junior partner in global hegemony, Big Tech or the U.S. government? The question would have been laughable just a few years ago, but now it’s a viable debate when we ask questions like: which one plays a larger role in your daily life, Big Tech platforms or the government? If controlling the flow of data is now the primary means of production, then who owns control of data flows? As we all know, the answer is Big Tech platforms: Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Twitter, Netflix et al.
As Mark, Jesse and I discuss in our latest salon, The Rise and Fall of the Neo-Feudal Network State, these platforms have become defacto sovereign states with global hegemony over surveillance, censorship, data collection and behavioral influence–what Jesse calls network states.
Since the leadership of these private-sector sovereign entities is effectively monarchical, it is also effectively neofeudal: these platforms are private, closed source systems, managed by black-box algorithms hidden from users and regulators. This is the acme of neofeudalism: there is no democratic control at all by users or citizens.
Source: ‘Too big to fail’: why even a historic ad boycott won’t change Facebook.
Whether Facebook will ever hit upon a more coherent approach to protecting the free expression of the powerless as well as the powerful depends on whether it ever comes to grip with its own role as the largest censor in the history of the world. (emphasis added by CHS)
“Facebook is governing human expression more than any government does or ever has,” said Susan Benesch, a faculty associate at Harvard University’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society. “They have taken on the task of defining hate speech and other unacceptable speech, which is a quasi-sovereign power… and we the public have no opportunity to contribute to the decision-making, as would be the case if the decisions were being made by a government.”
Indeed, despite company executives’ paying lip service to the concept of democracy from time to time, Facebook is structurally monarchical.
To the University of Virginia media studies professor Siva Vaidhyanathan, campaigners against Facebook need to come to grips with the global nature of its threat.
“The US got off easy in 2016– the same year that Rodrigo Duterte took over the Philippines by riding Facebook to victory, and two years after Narendra Modi took over India by riding Facebook to victory. Much of the world suffers from all of the Facebook maladies much worse than the US.”
Vaidhyanathan argued that solutions to Facebook’s ills cannot be achieved with oversight from above but will require a more fundamental shift from below. “The root of Facebook is the fact that it is a global intrusive surveillance system that leverages all that behavioral data to target both ads and non-ad content at us.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Source: ‘Too big to fail’: why even a historic ad boycott won’t change Facebook.
In other words, the lords of Big Tech control the digital means of production, and the peasants and serfs are powerless. That is the perfection of neofeudalism. As Mark and Jesse posit, this has effectively flipped the central states (governments) into the junior partners of the privately owned network state/central state global hegemony.
In response, governments now view the quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms domiciled in their borders as key allies in the struggle for global hegemony. Hence we are witnessing pushback against Chinese social-media giant TikTok, which as Jesse points out, is indeed a global platform for propaganda just like Facebook, Google, et al.
Recall that propaganda isn’t just what you’re allowed to see, it’s also what you’re not allowed to see and also what’s being promoted on Page One in your feed and what’s been buried on Page 23 (to use an old-media analogy).
Meanwhile, these privately owned quasi-sovereign networks are immensely profitable, as they sell the data they collect to advertisers and marketers, including political campaigns. Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook etc. wield more political power and influence than traditional political advocacy groups because their cash hoards are so stupendous.
The feedback loop is ominous: as government regulators are throttled or marginalized by political pressure bought by privately owned quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms, the platforms are in effect protected from any democratic control exerted by the citizenry in their nominal “home nation,” not to mention the citizenry they influence in other nations.
Unlike the old monopolies like Standard Oil, the quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms are the media, so there’s nothing left to balance their skyrocketing power. As we discuss in the podcast, their control is (in Jesse’s term) molecular, so they’ve effectively dismantled the legacy social-political structures such as working class, middle class, etc.
With mass media replaced by Big Tech’s data-flow / behavioral-control molecular media, political coherence has been lost, and so divide-and conquer control mechanisms are now essentially infinite: any group, no matter how coherent, can be splintered into warring fragments by the Big Tech Neofeudal Nobility.
After all, they have the data and they can use it however they want, with no limits or controls by users, citizens or nominally democratic governments.
How do we change the leadership of our Neofeudal Nobility, the privately owned, quasi-sovereign Big Tech platforms? The short answer is: we don’t. There is no mechanism left for influencing anything in the monarchies of Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, et al.
Meet the new boss, worse than the old boss. You better bow low and pay up, peasant, or your voice in the digital world will disappear just as quickly as your democracy’s control over Big Tech.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-13--Record Temperatures, Long Lines And Increasing Scarcity Will Greatly Test The Patience Of Americans

Record Temperatures, Long Lines And Increasing Scarcity Will Greatly Test The Patience Of Americans This Summer

This is going to be a long , hot summer that none of us is likely to forget any time soon .
Coming into this year , we knew that societal tensions would be running high because 2020 is an election year .
Many are convinced that this is the most important election in modern American history , and I expect for there to be some extremely shocking surprises as we draw closer to November .
Meanwhile , the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continues to surge to new heights , and the restrictions that authorities have instituted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backlash .
So many people have such extreme emotions about COVID-19 , and unfortunately it appears that this crisis is not going away any time soon .
Of course the civil unrest that erupted in the aftermath of the tragic death of George Floyd took societal tensions to an entirely new level that we have never seen before .
There was rioting , looting and violence all over the nation , and more chaos could literally break out at any moment .
So to say that our national mood is “ fragile ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I have never seen so much anger and frustration in this country in my entire lifetime , tens of millions of Americans have already lost their jobs , and a lot of people are not even able to pay their most basic bills at this point .
In fact , one recent survey found that nearly a third of all Americans have not even made “ their full housing payments for July ” … And now , on top of everything else , here comes the heat .
On Sunday , high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the western half of the country… Unfortunately , Sunday is just the beginning .
A “ heat dome ” has formed over the middle of the country , and that is likely to mean high temperatures of 90 degrees or greater for approximately 80 percent of the nation “ for the next few weeks ” … Needless to say , this is not coming at a good time .
Crime rates are absolutely soaring and the streets of many of our major cities already resemble war zones .
And during these very hot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to wait in exceedingly long lines for one reason or another .
I have written numerous articles about the massive lines that we have seen at food banks around the country , and lines at COVID-19 testing sites have gotten extremely long as well… I couldn ’ t imagine waiting “ all day ” to get tested for COVID-19 , but apparently there are a lot of people that are so desperate to get tested that they are willing to do this .
On top of everything else , a wide variety of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local grocery stores .
This isn ’ t a major national crisis yet , but you may have noticed that your local grocery store is having a much more difficult time keeping certain products in stock than usual .
This is happening because COVID-19 and the accompanying economic slowdown have created serious problems for many key supply chains .
Tony Koretz is the host of “ A Minute To Midnite ” , and he is also a really good guy that I know personally .
Just a few days ago he received an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a large grocery chain ” , and what this supply chain analyst had to share was extremely chilling .
The following is a short excerpt from that email… — the meeting of store demand — which is a proxy for actual consumer demand — from company-owned central warehouses has steadily declined over the last 4 months ; from a 98 % pre-COVID fulfillment rate to 58 % as of yesterday .
Key point : STEADY decline ; yes some blips upward from time to time , but overall steady decline to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presentation on the shelves ; for example : do we have some or no toilet paper , tomato paste , rice and noodles , etc.
, etc .
; you will also see new and unknown brands coming in to substitute for a product , but that is only going to be a temporary stop-gap as these are from 2nd and 3rd tier vendors who may not carry as much clout in getting their own raw-material supply chains filled…these too will dry up and go away over the next 3-6 months ( not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their own ranks , leading to an inability to produce said 2nd/3rd tier products ) … — there is also a trend to see less variations on products ; for example , we only have 3 variations on tomato paste to put on shelves as-opposed to the 15 we had pre-COVID — to the folks in the industry , this is known as the presentation and the service level at the shelf in the store ; service levels on some harder-hit commodities are near 10 % at-best , averaging in the 70 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when you carve-out bath tissue , paper towels , baby wipes , disinfectant wipes ; comparatively during pre-COVID service levels were in the very high 90 ’ s for all products ( sans SEASONAL ) … — Additional contributing factors : in addition to waning vendor fulfilment , we are also seeing more-and-more absenteeism in our warehouses due to COVID cases , fear , exhaustion .
You can read the rest of the email right here .
Of course none of this information should surprise us , because it is obvious that grocery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keeping their shelves stocked .
But getting this sort of inside information does help us to understand exactly why it is happening .
If you are anticipating that the end of this year and the beginning of next year will be chaotic , the next couple of months will be your best chance to get stocked up .
My suggestion would be to take advantage of this window of opportunity while we have it .
America has entered a time of great upheaval , and much of the country is simply not going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national nightmares that are ahead of us .

by Michael Snyder
This is going to be a long, hot summer that none of us is likely to forget any time soon. Coming into this year, we knew that societal tensions would be running high because 2020 is an election year. Many are convinced that this is the most important election in modern American history, and I expect for there to be some extremely shocking surprises as we draw closer to November. Meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continues to surge to new heights, and the restrictions that authorities have instituted to fight this pandemic have created a huge backlash. So many people have such extreme emotions about COVID-19, and unfortunately it appears that this crisis is not going away any time soon. Of course the civil unrest that erupted in the aftermath of the tragic death of George Floyd took societal tensions to an entirely new level that we have never seen before. There was rioting, looting and violence all over the nation, and more chaos could literally break out at any moment.
So to say that our national mood is “fragile” right now would be a major understatement. I have never seen so much anger and frustration in this country in my entire lifetime, tens of millions of Americans have already lost their jobs, and a lot of people are not even able to pay their most basic bills at this point. In fact, one recent survey found that nearly a third of all Americans have not even made “their full housing payments for July”…
As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, almost one-third of U.S. households, 32%, have not made their full housing payments for July yet, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental platform.
And now, on top of everything else, here comes the heat.
On Sunday, high temperatures were above 100 degrees all over the western half of the country…
Heat alerts are in effect from California to Alabama as high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above average on Sunday. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson will all see high temperatures of at least 110 degrees, and all three are likely to tie or break their daily record high temperatures. In Texas, cities including Dallas, San Antonio, and Lubbock will all exceed 100 degrees.
Unfortunately, Sunday is just the beginning. A “heat dome” has formed over the middle of the country, and that is likely to mean high temperatures of 90 degrees or greater for approximately 80 percent of the nation “for the next few weeks”…
A PERFECT STORM of crises is forming across the United States. Above our heads, a “heat dome” of high pressure could blast 80 percent of the continental US with temperatures over 90 degrees for the next few weeks. This coming in a summer when the Covid-19 lockdown has trapped people indoors, many without air-conditioning—and mass unemployment may mean that residents with AC units can’t afford to run them.
Needless to say, this is not coming at a good time. Crime rates are absolutely soaring and the streets of many of our major cities already resemble war zones.
And during these very hot summer months, many Americans will have to wait in exceedingly long lines for one reason or another. I have written numerous articles about the massive lines that we have seen at food banks around the country, and lines at COVID-19 testing sites have gotten extremely long as well…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Food banks in Vermont and Arizona have miles-long queues of cars. At testing sites in Florida, motorists show up with full gas tanks to keep air conditioning pumping all day. Travel to Europe is off, with America waiting behind other nations to re-enter someday. Even the electronic realm is tied up: Amid 11% unemployment, people applying for benefits report frozen computer screens and abrupt phone disconnections. Sometimes, the reward waiting at the end is simply a chance to try again tomorrow.
I couldn’t imagine waiting “all day” to get tested for COVID-19, but apparently there are a lot of people that are so desperate to get tested that they are willing to do this.
On top of everything else, a wide variety of products are becoming increasingly scarce at our local grocery stores.
This isn’t a major national crisis yet, but you may have noticed that your local grocery store is having a much more difficult time keeping certain products in stock than usual. This is happening because COVID-19 and the accompanying economic slowdown have created serious problems for many key supply chains.
Tony Koretz is the host of “A Minute To Midnite”, and he is also a really good guy that I know personally. Just a few days ago he received an email from “a supply chain analyst for a large grocery chain”, and what this supply chain analyst had to share was extremely chilling. The following is a short excerpt from that email…
— the meeting of store demand — which is a proxy for actual consumer demand — from company-owned central warehouses has steadily declined over the last 4 months; from a 98% pre-COVID fulfillment rate to 58% as of yesterday. Key point: STEADY decline; yes some blips upward from time to time, but overall steady decline to be sure — what this impacts is the presentation on the shelves; for example: do we have some or no toilet paper, tomato paste, rice and noodles, etc., etc.; you will also see new and unknown brands coming in to substitute for a product, but that is only going to be a temporary stop-gap as these are from 2nd and 3rd tier vendors who may not carry as much clout in getting their own raw-material supply chains filled…these too will dry up and go away over the next 3-6 months (not to mention the effect of absenteeism in their own ranks, leading to an inability to produce said 2nd/3rd tier products)… — there is also a trend to see less variations on products; for example, we only have 3 variations on tomato paste to put on shelves as-opposed to the 15 we had pre-COVID — to the folks in the industry, this is known as the presentation and the service level at the shelf in the store; service levels on some harder-hit commodities are near 10% at-best, averaging in the 70% level on an aggregate across all stores/commodities when you carve-out bath tissue, paper towels, baby wipes, disinfectant wipes; comparatively during pre-COVID service levels were in the very high 90’s for all products (sans SEASONAL)… — Additional contributing factors: in addition to waning vendor fulfilment, we are also seeing more-and-more absenteeism in our warehouses due to COVID cases, fear, exhaustion.
You can read the rest of the email right here. Of course none of this information should surprise us, because it is obvious that grocery stores are having a very difficult time keeping their shelves stocked. But getting this sort of inside information does help us to understand exactly why it is happening.
If you are anticipating that the end of this year and the beginning of next year will be chaotic, the next couple of months will be your best chance to get stocked up.
My suggestion would be to take advantage of this window of opportunity while we have it.
America has entered a time of great upheaval, and much of the country is simply not going to be able to handle the major national nightmares that are ahead of us.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-13--Rick Rule: How to navigate debt defaults and tragedy … Nomi Prins: Gold and debt go up together …

Nomi Prins : Gold and debt go up together … Alasdair Macleod : Dollar destruction & a golden Chinese currency @ @ @ @ @ would bet on this … William White : The last gasps of the central bank @ @ @ @ @ How to navigate debt defaults and tragedy …

BY JOHN RUBINO
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Nomi Prins: Gold and debt go up together … Alasdair Macleod: Dollar destruction & a golden Chinese currency … Doug Casey: I would bet on this … William White: The last gasps of the central bank experiment … Rick Rule: How to navigate debt defaults and tragedy …


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--[Washington Post] The stock market and economy have parted ways. It’s a FOMO market now.

It is impossible not to marvel at the apparently indestructible gap between the buoyant stock market and the less-than-buoyant real economy of workers , companies and jobs .
One must say “ apparently indestructible , ” because maybe there is some simple and obvious explanation that eludes your correspondent .
Otherwise , either the stock market is too high , or the economic outlook is too low .
One or both must be wrong .
Just last week , the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) — a group of 36 countries — issued its forecast for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unlikely to inspire much cheering .
Acknowledging that much depends on the severity of the coronavirus , the OECD report constructs two scenarios : one that might be termed “ pessimistic ” and a second that is “ more pessimistic.
” Under the “ pessimistic ” assumptions , the unemployment rate is projected at 11.3 percent at the end of 2020 and the economy ( gross domestic product ) falls 7.3 percent for the year .
Both the unemployment rate and the GDP decline are larger than in any previous post-World War @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the peak monthly jobless rate in the Great Recession of 2007-2009 was 10 percent .
The “ more pessimistic ” forecast assumes that there is a second wave of coronavirus cases .
This delays the economy ’ s recovery and results in more deaths .
In the “ double-hit ” scenario , the year-end unemployment rate is 12.9 percent , and the GDP drops by 8.5 percent .
“ The recession risks leaving behind a long-lasting negative economic impact , ” the OECD warns .
“ Policies are needed .
.
.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ effects and fully recover from the crisis .
”

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-stock-market-and-economy-have-parted-ways-its-a-fomo-market-now/2020/07/12/c14246d8-c2bf-11ea-b4f6-cb39cd8940fb_story.html
It is impossible not to marvel at the apparently indestructible gap between the buoyant stock market and the less-than-buoyant real economy of workers, companies and jobs. One must say “apparently indestructible,” because maybe there is some simple and obvious explanation that eludes your correspondent. Otherwise, either the stock market is too high, or the economic outlook is too low. One or both must be wrong.
Just last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) — a group of 36 countries — issued its forecast for the United States through 2021. It is unlikely to inspire much cheering. Acknowledging that much depends on the severity of the coronavirus, the OECD report constructs two scenarios: one that might be termed “pessimistic” and a second that is “more pessimistic.”
Under the “pessimistic” assumptions, the unemployment rate is projected at 11.3 percent at the end of 2020 and the economy (gross domestic product) falls 7.3 percent for the year. Both the unemployment rate and the GDP decline are larger than in any previous post-World War II recession. By way of comparison, the peak monthly jobless rate in the Great Recession of 2007-2009 was 10 percent.
The “more pessimistic” forecast assumes that there is a second wave of coronavirus cases. This delays the economy’s recovery and results in more deaths. In the “double-hit” scenario, the year-end unemployment rate is 12.9 percent, and the GDP drops by 8.5 percent. “The recession risks leaving behind a long-lasting negative economic impact,” the OECD warns. “Policies are needed . . . to help workers and businesses avoid scarring effects and fully recover from the crisis.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Las Vegas bars forced to re-close, Puts on Vegas Casinos

More importantly this a bearish post regarding Vegas casinos .
Last week Vegas returned to phase 1 of it ’ s reopening plan .
This means bars are being forced to re-close .
Casinos may very likely be next , and even if they ’ re not this is still going to be yet another blow for Las Vegas tourism .
“ The Covid numbers in Vegas are far worse than what is represented in the data .
People do not go to Vegas to get tested .
They go to Vegas , catch the virus and then go home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very much be considered the new epicenter for the Coronavirus in the United States.
” I could type a lot more words but most of ya ’ ll can ’ t read anyways .
So I ’ m just going to link to various news articles and post my positions .
My plays are centered around Q2 earnings for these Casinos , which are going to be their worst ever : Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by Tooup
More importantly this a bearish post regarding Vegas casinos. Last week Vegas returned to phase 1 of it’s reopening plan. This means bars are being forced to re-close. Casinos may very likely be next, and even if they’re not this is still going to be yet another blow for Las Vegas tourism.
“The Covid numbers in Vegas are far worse than what is represented in the data. People do not go to Vegas to get tested. They go to Vegas, catch the virus and then go home and get tested. Las Vegas should very much be considered the new epicenter for the Coronavirus in the United States.”
I could type a lot more words but most of ya’ll can’t read anyways. So I’m just going to link to various news articles and post my positions.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!

My plays are centered around Q2 earnings for these Casinos, which are going to be their worst ever:
MGM $17p, 08/07
WYNN $75p, 08/07
LVS $45p, 07/31
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--New Fed Repo Schedule/analysis for what it means after today (SPY, VXX)

In the midst of today ’ s storm , I am calm .
Joyous even .
Why ?
Because this weekend I signed up for the FED Financial Operations E-mail List Serve : the new FED repo was released this afternoon and will give us a shot in the arm heading into the close tomorrow and EOW .
Here it is , and here ’ s some analysis/confirmation bias My previous DD on the FED Repo schedule ( www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hcdpox/dd_playing_vxx_and_spy_against_the_fed_repo/ ) saw a connection between days of what became known on the sub as “ double pump days ” and rises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were going smoothly on Tuesdays , but last week we hit a snag in the plan .
What was the issue ?
The issue became no bids being entered for the Fed repos .
Jerome Powell extended his gracious hand , and the banks poo-pood it !
What does this mean ?
It likely means one of two things : • After already taking issue with the rates and terms from when Repo operations began in daily capacity in the winter , there had been displeasure among the banks with the FED .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of restrictive regulation standards borne of of the Stress Test Results , led banks to break from the Fed for Repo operations even if they weren ’ t necessarily on the financial footing to do so , needing to shun the additional liquidity based on terms .
• The banks saw the market—and themselves—doing so well now and in the near future from the recent euphoria that they balked at the FED ’ s increasingly aggressive rates .
Recent history leads me to believe it ’ s a mixture of the two with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far : the day they last offered a pump ( repo loan ) of 0 basis points on the overnight were 6/12 and 6/15 , SPY increased 1.1 % and .93 % respectively .
What ’ s even more notable is that these came after a drop of 5.7 % —sheeeesh .
( this will matter later ) Within last months Repo schedule , they weened the banks off of 0 basis points loans ( literally free money ) and started to introduce 5 point loans on 10 point days .
This worked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bliss .
But then last week , it failed and we dipped .
Did the mechanism fail ?
No .
The banks refused to take the loans .
The FED was offering the lifeline while trying not to dive into more spending debt , and holding banks accountable through interest rates .
Things were going well until today , and the banks likely thought they didn ’ t want—or need—the increasingly high interest rate loans of the FED .
So what now and why does this shit matter Now they do need it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As they did when they took the money after we dipped 5 % the day before the last 0 basis points loans , they will take this money tomorrow .
They need to take this money for two reasons tomorrow : • Because the market will have a cascading fall affect if people link this to COVID numbers rising • More importantly , banks have their earnings run this week .
It ’ d be a debacle if they didn ’ t shore up financials with some swift loans amongst each other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frenzied to borrow the loans as they were when they were 0 basis points , but tomorrow is the first double pump of the new calendar and the 5 basis point overnight +10 basis point term operation has been a fine combo for them up until they got cocky last week .
In addition to the two factors above re : banks need this fucking money , there is a big factor as to why this will shore up today ’ s losses : I looked at each rollover date for new fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
On almost every rollover date—going back to last year when the operations weren ’ t even daily— SPY is elevated** .
** Even more of note , almost all the rollover date were preceded by a dip .
The only time the rollover date didn ’ t elevate SPY was during the March crash , which is a no-brainer .
Someone smarter than me can explain why rollover dates lead to jumps in SPY , but I do not believe that ’ s coincidence .
These factors lead me to conclude that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we will come out of through the week leading into another beautiful Monday .
What could go wrong ?
Problematizing factors include : 1 ) the fact that the overnight repos are taking place in the afternoon this time around .
I don ’ t know how that change affects things and didn ’ t have the time yet for that breakdown and 2 ) the beige book will be released this week , which carries some—but not a ton—of weight depending on if they ’ re glass half full or half empty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and stimulus 2 may heat up a bit , and you know how Mango be I will try to update here when I can , but do more stuff on my twitter of the same name because I can react quicker to news and such .
For all the people who think I ’ m spouting permabull insanity , here ’ s a picture of the last time I played VXX last month so you can see my only allegiance is tendies .
I have no quarrel with you bear folk .
My @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by MiltDavis
In the midst of today’s storm, I am calm. Joyous even. Why? Because this weekend I signed up for the FED Financial Operations E-mail List Serve: the new FED repo was released this afternoon and will give us a shot in the arm heading into the close tomorrow and EOW. Here it is, and here’s some analysis/confirmation bias
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details
Context:
My previous DD on the FED Repo schedule (www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hcdpox/dd_playing_vxx_and_spy_against_the_fed_repo/) saw a connection between days of what became known on the sub as “double pump days” and rises in SPY. These DPD’s were going smoothly on Tuesdays, but last week we hit a snag in the plan. What was the issue?
The issue became no bids being entered for the Fed repos. Jerome Powell extended his gracious hand, and the banks poo-pood it! What does this mean? It likely means one of two things:
After already taking issue with the rates and terms from when Repo operations began in daily capacity in the winter, there had been displeasure among the banks with the FED. This, combined with a new set of restrictive regulation standards borne of of the Stress Test Results, led banks to break from the Fed for Repo operations even if they weren’t necessarily on the financial footing to do so, needing to shun the additional liquidity based on terms. The banks saw the market—and themselves—doing so well now and in the near future from the recent euphoria that they balked at the FED’s increasingly aggressive rates.
Recent history leads me to believe it’s a mixture of the two with the second being the larger factor by far: the day they last offered a pump (repo loan) of 0 basis points on the overnight were 6/12 and 6/15, SPY increased 1.1% and .93% respectively. What’s even more notable is that these came after a drop of 5.7%—sheeeesh.(this will matter later)
Within last months Repo schedule, they weened the banks off of 0 basis points loans (literally free money) and started to introduce 5 point loans on 10 point days. This worked fine for a few weeks of double-pump-Tuesday bliss. But then last week, it failed and we dipped. Did the mechanism fail? No.
The banks refused to take the loans.
The FED was offering the lifeline while trying not to dive into more spending debt, and holding banks accountable through interest rates. Things were going well until today, and the banks likely thought they didn’t want—or need—the increasingly high interest rate loans of the FED.
So what now and why does this shit matter
Now they do need it. We are approaching tragedy levels today. As they did when they took the money after we dipped 5% the day before the last 0 basis points loans, they will take this money tomorrow. They need to take this money for two reasons tomorrow:
Because the market will have a cascading fall affect if people link this to COVID numbers rising More importantly, banks have their earnings run this week. It’d be a debacle if they didn’t shore up financials with some swift loans amongst each other.
Banks probably will not be as frenzied to borrow the loans as they were when they were 0 basis points, but tomorrow is the first double pump of the new calendar and the 5 basis point overnight +10 basis point term operation has been a fine combo for them up until they got cocky last week. In addition to the two factors above re: banks need this fucking money, there is a big factor as to why this will shore up today’s losses:
ROLLOVER DATES FOR FED REPO OPERATIONS PRINT BIGLY
I looked at each rollover date for new fed repo operation and GUESS what I found? On almost every rollover date—going back to last year when the operations weren’t even daily— SPY is elevated**.** Even more of note, almost all the rollover date were preceded by a dip. The only time the rollover date didn’t elevate SPY was during the March crash, which is a no-brainer. Someone smarter than me can explain why rollover dates lead to jumps in SPY, but I do not believe that’s coincidence.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
These factors lead me to conclude that this was a correction today, and we will come out of through the week leading into another beautiful Monday.
What could go wrong? Problematizing factors include: 1) the fact that the overnight repos are taking place in the afternoon this time around. I don’t know how that change affects things and didn’t have the time yet for that breakdown and 2) the beige book will be released this week, which carries some—but not a ton—of weight depending on if they’re glass half full or half empty and 3) talk about UI benefits and stimulus 2 may heat up a bit, and you know how Mango be
I will try to update here when I can, but do more stuff on my twitter of the same name because I can react quicker to news and such. For all the people who think I’m spouting permabull insanity, here’s a picture of the last time I played VXX last month so you can see my only allegiance is tendies. I have no quarrel with you bear folk.

preview.redd.it/rf426uulooa51.jpg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=021f822b606da9eddcf73a9079e2e092f147e89b
TLDR:
We’re gonna be fine.
SPY 7/17 318c
QQQ 7/17 267c
My other short term positions if anybody cares:
AAPL 7/17 390c
HPE 7/17 9.50c
MRNA 7/17 75c
WMT 7/17 134c
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Analysts Agree: Gold to Leave Stocks in the Dust

This week , Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy .
Stories include : Gold is poised to leave stocks behind and find new highs , gold is gearing up towards the $ 2,000 level , and UN report says $ 10 billion of precious metals is dumped through electronic waste every year .
Unlike stocks , gold has every reason to continue rising According to various analysts and experts , gold is the safest long bet one can make right now .
This notion is supported by the metal having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , showing that investors had plenty of questions about the long-running and overblown equity market .
Now , equities are soaring once again as traders hope that monetary stimulus will translate to corporate earnings and boost the economy in return .
Yet , as CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital Michael Novogratz pointed out , the stimulus has created another bubble in the stock market .
More importantly , however , it has opened the road to rampant inflation , which should send gold flying past $ 1,950 in the not-too-distant future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Capital , is even more optimistic when it comes to gold ’ s prospects , stating that investors should begin viewing the metal as a guaranteed outperformer .
Howell predicts that the combination of U.S. ’ and China ’ s central bank stimulus will be enough to propel gold to $ 2,500 in the next 18 months .
Although it might seem like a massive jump , historical analysis shows that the price target is close to where gold should be right now .
In a recently-published research note , Bleakley Advisory Group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold ’ s 1980 high of $ 850 in mind places gold ’ s inflation-adjusted high in 2020 at $ 2,600 .
ABN AMRO : Look for gold to reach $ 2,000 in 2021 The latest report by ABN AMRO ’ s precious metal strategist Georgette Boele highlighted the importance of gold ’ s recent clearing of the $ 1,800 level .
Although Boele maintains her $ 1,900 year-end target for the metal , she updated her 2021 forecast for gold to $ 2,000 from a previous target of $ 1,800 .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per ounce has been surpassed .
It seems that investors will only be satisfied if the former peak in gold prices at USD 1,931 per ounce is reached and taken out .
Above that the important psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce is within reach , ” she explained .
Boele noted that the flow of institutional money into gold has been such that it has placed the metal at risk of a temporary pullback .
Investors should , and are likely , to welcome this as an opportunity to buy the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong long-term outlook .
Among other things , this outlook rests heavily on the dismal situation with global bonds .
Having previously been a safe-haven alternative , sovereign bonds around the world now oscillate between low and negative territory , the latter representing an inconceivable notion not too long ago .
Boele , like most other analysts , expects this trend to either persist or worsen as governments continue slicing their interest rates and expanding their deficits .
And although the Treasury stands out as one bond that hasn ’ t yet dipped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that real rates in the U.S. are already there and could fall even lower if inflation expectations materialize .
$ 10 billion worth of precious metals is dumped through electronic waste annually As various pundits warn that we have passed the point of peak gold output and that new deposits of the metal will be harder and harder to obtain , a massive amount of gold and other precious metals is being thrown into waste every year .
This is happening due to electronics that use precious metals as key components and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unfeasible , causing consumers to simply discard the product .
The UN refers to this as e-waste , and their newest report shows that 54 million tons of electronic waste was created in 2019 , up 21 % compared to the previous year .
While there are some efforts to recover the valuable metals in lower-income countries , the overall endeavor is minimal , and 2019 ’ s pile of electronic waste has done away with roughly $ 10 billion in precious metals .
In the report , the UN pointed to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold through standard mining operations and placed much of the blame for these metals going to waste on manufacturers creating products that aren ’ t built to last .
The UN believes that a globally-coordinated recycling effort could not only help remedy the pollution problem , but also have a tremendous positive impact on various economies .
“ If [ collection and recycling ] were better organized , the economies of scale would go up and I think there are opportunities for creating a new economy and new jobs .
There would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said UN representative Kees Baldé .

From Birch Gold Group
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Gold is poised to leave stocks behind and find new highs, gold is gearing up towards the $2,000 level, and UN report says $10 billion of precious metals is dumped through electronic waste every year.
Unlike stocks, gold has every reason to continue rising
According to various analysts and experts, gold is the safest long bet one can make right now. This notion is supported by the metal having climbed alongside stocks even prior to the pandemic, showing that investors had plenty of questions about the long-running and overblown equity market.
Now, equities are soaring once again as traders hope that monetary stimulus will translate to corporate earnings and boost the economy in return. Yet, as CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital Michael Novogratz pointed out, the stimulus has created another bubble in the stock market. More importantly, however, it has opened the road to rampant inflation, which should send gold flying past $1,950 in the not-too-distant future.
Michael Howell, CEO of Crossborder Capital, is even more optimistic when it comes to gold’s prospects, stating that investors should begin viewing the metal as a guaranteed outperformer. Howell predicts that the combination of U.S.’ and China’s central bank stimulus will be enough to propel gold to $2,500 in the next 18 months.
Although it might seem like a massive jump, historical analysis shows that the price target is close to where gold should be right now. In a recently-published research note, Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar said that keeping gold’s 1980 high of $850 in mind places gold’s inflation-adjusted high in 2020 at $2,600.
ABN AMRO: Look for gold to reach $2,000 in 2021
The latest report by ABN AMRO’s precious metal strategist Georgette Boele highlighted the importance of gold’s recent clearing of the $1,800 level. Although Boele maintains her $1,900 year-end target for the metal, she updated her 2021 forecast for gold to $2,000 from a previous target of $1,800.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Now the psychological resistance of USD 1,800 per ounce has been surpassed. It seems that investors will only be satisfied if the former peak in gold prices at USD 1,931 per ounce is reached and taken out. Above that the important psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce is within reach,” she explained.
Boele noted that the flow of institutional money into gold has been such that it has placed the metal at risk of a temporary pullback. Investors should, and are likely, to welcome this as an opportunity to buy the dip due to gold’s exceptionally strong long-term outlook.
Among other things, this outlook rests heavily on the dismal situation with global bonds. Having previously been a safe-haven alternative, sovereign bonds around the world now oscillate between low and negative territory, the latter representing an inconceivable notion not too long ago. Boele, like most other analysts, expects this trend to either persist or worsen as governments continue slicing their interest rates and expanding their deficits. And although the Treasury stands out as one bond that hasn’t yet dipped into negative territory, Boele pointed out that real rates in the U.S. are already there and could fall even lower if inflation expectations materialize.
$10 billion worth of precious metals is dumped through electronic waste annually
As various pundits warn that we have passed the point of peak gold output and that new deposits of the metal will be harder and harder to obtain, a massive amount of gold and other precious metals is being thrown into waste every year.
This is happening due to electronics that use precious metals as key components and are manufactured in a fashion that makes repair unfeasible, causing consumers to simply discard the product. The UN refers to this as e-waste, and their newest report shows that 54 million tons of electronic waste was created in 2019, up 21% compared to the previous year.
While there are some efforts to recover the valuable metals in lower-income countries, the overall endeavor is minimal, and 2019’s pile of electronic waste has done away with roughly $10 billion in precious metals. In the report, the UN pointed to the difficulties of obtaining a single gram of gold through standard mining operations and placed much of the blame for these metals going to waste on manufacturers creating products that aren’t built to last.
The UN believes that a globally-coordinated recycling effort could not only help remedy the pollution problem, but also have a tremendous positive impact on various economies. “If [collection and recycling] were better organized, the economies of scale would go up and I think there are opportunities for creating a new economy and new jobs. There would be a huge income for many people,” said UN representative Kees Baldé.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Election 2020: ‘A Major Bear Market of Political Decency’

I know many of you are wondering what happens if Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election ?
What happens if Donald Trump wins ?
So , I called my friend Doug Kass to basically “ wargame ” the next 12 to 24 months .
He ’ s a veteran trader and investor , one George Soros tried to hire on several occasions .
So , when he has something to say , I listen closely .
Doug and I went back and forth on a few issues , but the bottom line is the same : We are in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is no magic recovery formula no matter who controls the government .
Doug gave me a great quote that is appropriate for our times : “ We are in a major bear market of political decency.
” Doug sent me one of his latest letters ( and kindly let me share it with Over My Shoulder members ) .
The two charts below show economic activity and consumer sentiment appear to be rolling over .
In aggregate terms , COVID-19 will likely have a sustained impact on the domestic economy—in reduced production and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industries , forever .
At the core of my concerns : important industries gutted .
Several key labor-intensive industries—education , lodging , entertainment ( Broadway events , concerts , movie theatres , sporting events ) , restaurant , travel , retail , nonresidential real estate , etc.—face an existential threat to their core .
For these industries , the damage is done , as they simply can not survive the conditions they face .
For these gutted industries , we face , at best , an 80 % to 85 % recovery in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be emphasized that , in the case of some of these sectors , like retail , COVID-19 sped up what was already a secular decline .
It is not a pretty picture .
Government programs and safety nets can help , but they don ’ t magically produce GDP and jobs .
Doug and I agree that investors will be seriously disappointed in corporate earnings over the next two years .
However , given the Fed ’ s money-printing , the market can keep rising even as the economy rolls over .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a market impact .
Don ’ t ask me when , because I don ’ t know .
But we shouldn ’ t be surprised when they do .
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history .
And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now .
Learn more here .

by John Mauldin
I know many of you are wondering what happens if Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election? What happens if Donald Trump wins?
So, I called my friend Doug Kass to basically “wargame” the next 12 to 24 months. He’s a veteran trader and investor, one George Soros tried to hire on several occasions. So, when he has something to say, I listen closely.
Doug and I went back and forth on a few issues, but the bottom line is the same: We are in for a very rough ride.
There is no magic recovery formula no matter who controls the government. Doug gave me a great quote that is appropriate for our times: “We are in a major bear market of political decency.”
Doug sent me one of his latest letters (and kindly let me share it with Over My Shoulder members). The two charts below show economic activity and consumer sentiment appear to be rolling over.
Source: RealMoney
Quoting Doug:
In aggregate terms, COVID-19 will likely have a sustained impact on the domestic economy—in reduced production and profitability—for several years, and in some industries, forever.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
At the core of my concerns: important industries gutted.
Several key labor-intensive industries—education, lodging, entertainment (Broadway events, concerts, movie theatres, sporting events), restaurant, travel, retail, nonresidential real estate, etc.—face an existential threat to their core.
For these industries, the damage is done, as they simply cannot survive the conditions they face. For these gutted industries, we face, at best, an 80% to 85% recovery in the years to come.
It should be emphasized that, in the case of some of these sectors, like retail, COVID-19 sped up what was already a secular decline.
It is not a pretty picture. Government programs and safety nets can help, but they don’t magically produce GDP and jobs.
Doug and I agree that investors will be seriously disappointed in corporate earnings over the next two years. However, given the Fed’s money-printing, the market can keep rising even as the economy rolls over.
But at some point, lower earnings will have a market impact. Don’t ask me when, because I don’t know. But we shouldn’t be surprised when they do.
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--The Six-Year Jobs Recession

The Six-Year Jobs Recession

Most of us work for some form of paycheck , even the self-employed .
Few subsist on their own efforts .
Even retirees , politicians , and welfare recipients live off someone ’ s labor , if not their own .
Savings , if you have any , are the result of past labor .
That makes a job shortage problematic for everyone , not just the jobless .
The June US employment report showed some welcome improvement .
Businesses brought back many workers as parts of the country reopened .
That ’ s great but it was only a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like that , and it ’ s not at all clear they are coming .
To be fair , there isn ’ t a lot of clarity when we look back at past data , either .
One little-noticed effect of COVID-19 is the havoc it wrought on our employment data .
Government statistics have always had their quirks , and often measure the wrong things , but the bureaucracy is at least consistent .
It collects the same numbers , the same way , over and over again .
When is someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers who are/were : • Temporarily furloughed , with the employer intending ( but not promising ) to bring them back .
Meanwhile they might or might not be collecting unemployment benefits .
• Effectively furloughed .
They aren ’ t working , but still on their employer ’ s payroll with help from the PPP program .
• Working for fewer hours and/or for lower wages .
Not jobless , but rather in some sort of limbo .
• Never formally “ employees ” but independent contractors , like Uber drivers .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ t have received any benefits but this time , thanks to the CARES Act , they do… maybe .
Some states are implementing that program slowly , if at all .
Historically , the Bureau of Labor Statistics considered someone “ unemployed ” if they were able to work and seeking work , but not currently working .
Yet now millions can work , but aren ’ t looking , because they expect to be called back but may not be .
How do we classify them ?
There ’ s a vast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims vs. the surveys BLS conducts for the monthly employment report .
Those benefit claims are also questionable , since state agencies were inundated with claims they couldn ’ t process .
Then there is the question of how extra benefits have affected people ’ s willingness to work .
If you can make more money staying home than by working , staying home is perfectly rational .
But will you admit that in a government survey ?
Clearly , many businesses are closed and many workers jobless .
Some will go back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost .
That ’ s true in any recession .
The difference now is that this one happened very suddenly , with a depth and severity unseen in 90 years , accompanied by a swift and generous fiscal response .
Many people ( though far from all ) were made comfortable .
They thought their jobs were safe and expected to go back .
That means we haven ’ t had the kind of pain signals a situation of this magnitude would normally generate .
Those signals may be coming , though .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s percentage job losses with prior recessions .
That bright red waterfall is where we are right now .
It appears to have hit bottom and splashed a bit , but there ’ s a lot of white water ahead .
You can see in the 2007 line how long it took employment to recover after the last recession .
At that pace , all the jobs will be back sometime in 2026 .
( Not a typo . )
To assume the “ V ” seen above will continue in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a quick return to normalcy .
Maybe this time is different , since at least some of the layoffs were temporary .
The BLS data tries to distinguish between temporary and permanent job losses .
That ’ s a moving target , though , because employers don ’ t always know .
They furlough people with the intent of bringing them back , but then find conditions don ’ t allow it .
At some point , temporary job losses can turn into permanent ones .
Even when jobs reappear , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea of how many furloughed and unemployed workers want to go back , or are even able to .
• Some have health concerns , for either themselves or a vulnerable family member .
• Others have young children who may or may not go back to school this fall .
• And some who are making more from unemployment benefits than they would by working will keep doing so as long as they can .
Take a look at this chart from Philippa Dunne : Unemployment benefits are skyrocketing as a percentage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are dropping hard .
We will get some more insight this month because Congress will extend , modify , or expire the enhanced unemployment benefits .
One thing we know for sure : An economy with double-digit-percentage unemployment isn ’ t going to have a V-shaped recovery .
It just can ’ t .
There is every reason to think it will get worse before getting better .
And it will get better… but probably not soon .
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unaware of the pressure building right now .
Learn more here .

by John Mauldin
Most of us work for some form of paycheck, even the self-employed. Few subsist on their own efforts. Even retirees, politicians, and welfare recipients live off someone’s labor, if not their own.
Savings, if you have any, are the result of past labor. That makes a job shortage problematic for everyone, not just the jobless.
The June US employment report showed some welcome improvement. Businesses brought back many workers as parts of the country reopened. That’s great but it was only a start. We need several more months like that, and it’s not at all clear they are coming.
To be fair, there isn’t a lot of clarity when we look back at past data, either.
One little-noticed effect of COVID-19 is the havoc it wrought on our employment data. Government statistics have always had their quirks, and often measure the wrong things, but the bureaucracy is at least consistent. It collects the same numbers, the same way, over and over again.
Not anymore.
When is someone unemployed, exactly? Suddenly we have workers who are/were:
Temporarily furloughed, with the employer intending (but not promising) to bring them back. Meanwhile they might or might not be collecting unemployment benefits.
Effectively furloughed. They aren’t working, but still on their employer’s payroll with help from the PPP program.
Working for fewer hours and/or for lower wages. Not jobless, but rather in some sort of limbo.
Never formally “employees” but independent contractors, like Uber drivers. In previous recessions, they wouldn’t have received any benefits but this time, thanks to the CARES Act, they do… maybe. Some states are implementing that program slowly, if at all.
Historically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics considered someone “unemployed” if they were able to work and seeking work, but not currently working. Yet now millions can work, but aren’t looking, because they expect to be called back but may not be. How do we classify them?
There’s a vast difference between the numbers filing unemployment benefit claims vs. the surveys BLS conducts for the monthly employment report. Those benefit claims are also questionable, since state agencies were inundated with claims they couldn’t process.
Then there is the question of how extra benefits have affected people’s willingness to work. If you can make more money staying home than by working, staying home is perfectly rational. But will you admit that in a government survey?
Clearly, many businesses are closed and many workers jobless. Some will go back, but some jobs will be permanently lost. That’s true in any recession.
The difference now is that this one happened very suddenly, with a depth and severity unseen in 90 years, accompanied by a swift and generous fiscal response.
Many people (though far from all) were made comfortable. They thought their jobs were safe and expected to go back.
That means we haven’t had the kind of pain signals a situation of this magnitude would normally generate.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Those signals may be coming, though. Here’s a chart comparing this year’s percentage job losses with prior recessions.
Source: Calculated Risk
That bright red waterfall is where we are right now. It appears to have hit bottom and splashed a bit, but there’s a lot of white water ahead. You can see in the 2007 line how long it took employment to recover after the last recession.
At that pace, all the jobs will be back sometime in 2026. (Not a typo.) To assume the “V” seen above will continue in the same direction means thinking there will be a quick return to normalcy.
Maybe this time is different, since at least some of the layoffs were temporary. The BLS data tries to distinguish between temporary and permanent job losses.
That’s a moving target, though, because employers don’t always know. They furlough people with the intent of bringing them back, but then find conditions don’t allow it. At some point, temporary job losses can turn into permanent ones.
Even when jobs reappear, we still don’t have a good idea of how many furloughed and unemployed workers want to go back, or are even able to.
Some have health concerns, for either themselves or a vulnerable family member.
Others have young children who may or may not go back to school this fall.
And some who are making more from unemployment benefits than they would by working will keep doing so as long as they can.
Take a look at this chart from Philippa Dunne:
Source: TLRanalytics
Unemployment benefits are skyrocketing as a percentage of personal income while wages and salaries are dropping hard.
We will get some more insight this month because Congress will extend, modify, or expire the enhanced unemployment benefits.
One thing we know for sure: An economy with double-digit-percentage unemployment isn’t going to have a V-shaped recovery. It just can’t.
There is every reason to think it will get worse before getting better. And it will get better… but probably not soon.
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Former Facebook exec: I think we have created tools that are ripping apart the social fabric of how

Former Facebook exec: I think we have created tools that are ripping apart the social fabric of how society works….

I think understanding how information is manipulated in social media sites is the key to figuring out how powerful people @ @ @ @ @ .
This video is about how huge media sites like Facebook are manipulated .
It @ @ @ @ @ executive talking about the way he and others basically sought to destroy the level of @ @ @ @ @ into dopamine addicts .
I think he starts talking about the subject around the 21 @ @ @

I think understanding how information is manipulated in social media sites is the key to figuring out how powerful people keep their plans in secret. This video is about how huge media sites like Facebook are manipulated.
It’s a former Facebook executive talking about the way he and others basically sought to destroy the level of discourse online by turning people into dopamine addicts.
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I think he starts talking about the subject around the 21 minute mark.
h/t HibikiSS


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--MSM NEEDS YOU TO KNOW: TRUMP WEARS A MASK NOW, YOU SHOULD TOO

Now that President Donald Trump has been photographed wearing a face mask , the mainstream media needs his supporters to follow suit and emulate him .
It was all over mainstream media that Trump wore a face mask for the first time during this plandemic .
President Donald Trump wore a mask during a visit to a military hospital on Saturday , the first time the president has been seen in public with the type of facial covering recommended by health officials as a precaution against spreading or becoming infected by the novel coronavirus , according to a report by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On COVID-19 Propaganda Today : Headlines Declare Trump Is “ All For Masks ” Trump flew by helicopter to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in suburban Washington to meet wounded service members and health care providers caring for COVID-19 patients .
As he left the White House , he told reporters : “ When you ’ re in a hospital , especially … I think it ’ s a great thing to wear a mask.
” More prominent Republicans , including Vice President Mike Pence , have been endorsing wearing masks as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governors have been moving toward requiring or encouraging the use of masks as the plandemic and mainstream media ’ s fear-mongering has grown more obvious in some states in the South and West .
It ’ s important to not forget what the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve ( the central bank ) said of the shutdown , and no , it wasn ’ t about health and never has been : “ This is a planned , organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ households , and businesses , whole… It is a huge shock and we are trying to cope with it and keep it under control , ” said Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard .
This was planned from the beginning and at this point , doesn ’ t ’ even matter if a virus is ravaging humanity or not , although the evidence continues to point to that not being the case .
That comment by Bullard can be found in an article by Market Watch dating back to March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s all a scam and the photos of Trump wearing a mask are straight propaganda .
The wearing of masks became another political dividing line and just gives the media more ammunition to “ divide and conquer ” those unwilling to look at it for what it is .
Republicans tend to be more resistant to wearing face masks than Democrats , but the media wants republicans to change their tune by sharing photos of Trump wearing a mask .
But could there be something more sinister about all the devotion to covering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looked like a muzzle or a person symbolically silenced to me personally . )
This mask-wearing is odd at the very least , considering the science is not there to support it , yet people are obeying anything the mainstream media tells them to do .
We live in the strangest of times .

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
Now that President Donald Trump has been photographed wearing a face mask, the mainstream media needs his supporters to follow suit and emulate him. It was all over mainstream media that Trump wore a face mask for the first time during this plandemic.
President Donald Trump wore a mask during a visit to a military hospital on Saturday, the first time the president has been seen in public with the type of facial covering recommended by health officials as a precaution against spreading or becoming infected by the novel coronavirus, according to a report by the Associated Press.
The MSM Pivots On COVID-19 Propaganda Today: Headlines Declare Trump Is “All For Masks”
Trump flew by helicopter to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in suburban Washington to meet wounded service members and health care providers caring for COVID-19 patients. As he left the White House, he told reporters: “When you’re in a hospital, especially … I think it’s a great thing to wear a mask.” More prominent Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence, have been endorsing wearing masks as the heat of summer approached. Republican governors have been moving toward requiring or encouraging the use of masks as the plandemic and mainstream media’s fear-mongering has grown more obvious in some states in the South and West.
Texas Governor MANDATES Face Masks
It’s important to not forget what the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve (the central bank) said of the shutdown, and no, it wasn’t about health and never has been: “This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households, and businesses, whole… It is a huge shock and we are trying to cope with it and keep it under control,” said Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard.
This was planned from the beginning and at this point, doesn’t’ even matter if a virus is ravaging humanity or not, although the evidence continues to point to that not being the case. That comment by Bullard can be found in an article by Market Watch dating back to March 23 of this year.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It’s all a scam and the photos of Trump wearing a mask are straight propaganda. The wearing of masks became another political dividing line and just gives the media more ammunition to “divide and conquer” those unwilling to look at it for what it is. Republicans tend to be more resistant to wearing face masks than Democrats, but the media wants republicans to change their tune by sharing photos of Trump wearing a mask.
But could there be something more sinister about all the devotion to covering one’s mouth (which always looked like a muzzle or a person symbolically silenced to me personally.)
Are Face Masks & COVID Rituals Occultist Symbols For Submission?
This mask-wearing is odd at the very least, considering the science is not there to support it, yet people are obeying anything the mainstream media tells them to do. We live in the strangest of times.
*****
Editor’s Note –
Here’s Fox News video news coverage of Trump wearing the face mask:


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--China Pushes New Law to Censor the Whole Planet.

They ’ re actively creating databases of any negative comment about them online and associating it to people ’ s @ @ @ @ @ spoke ill of China sets foot on any of their territory , they will be @ @

by FringeCenterPodcast
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They’re actively creating databases of any negative comment about them online and associating it to people’s identities. If anyone who spoke ill of China sets foot on any of their territory, they will be arrested.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Uh Oh – Trump says federal government may “take over cities” to combat rising crime

# BREAKING : President Trump says federal government may “ take over cities ” to combat rising crime : “ @ @ @ @ @ coming down even if we have to go and take over cities .
”

#BREAKING: President Trump says federal government may “take over cities” to combat rising crime: “Numbers are going to be coming down even if we have to go and take over cities.”
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#BREAKING: President Trump says federal government may "take over cities" to combat rising crime: "Numbers are going to be coming down even if we have to go and take over cities." pic.twitter.com/IJNDfAwvAS — The Hill (@thehill) July 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-13--HUGE: Docs Show Obama gang criminally ABUSED General Flynn. Coup Against @RealDonaldTrump NOT OVER!

HUGE: Docs Show Obama gang criminally ABUSED General Flynn. Coup Against @RealDonaldTrump NOT OVER! Stone commutation should be the beginning!

PLUS @ JudicialWatch lawsuit gets green light against Cali quotas !
AND # Coronavirus Oppression Must End !
I have @ @ @ @ @ for you !
Thank you for your support and I hope you have a great @ @ @

by TFittonJW
PLUS @JudicialWatch lawsuit gets green light against Cali quotas! AND #Coronavirus Oppression Must End! I have a MASSIVE Judicial Watch Update for you!
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Thank you for your support and I hope you have a great day! TF