investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--The bearish thesis on stocks is if another wave of COVID-19 hits, it won’t matter if states don’t sh

The bearish thesis on stocks is if another wave of COVID-19 hits, it won’t matter if states don’t shutdown. The labor market will still weaken.

Narratives tend to trail the market , meaning people come up with explanations of why the market moved after it happened .
Effectively you can justify why any move happened .
That ’ s problematic because some moves end up being head fakes and narratives ignore valuations .
Firstly , if a great narrative convinces you to buy after stocks have already rallied , you will be flummoxed when the narrative instantly changes on a down day .
Stocks have supposedly risen on trade hopes and fallen on trade fears numerous times in the past few years .
These are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fear in March too much , you would have avoided great buying opportunities .
Valuations are critical .
Prices got cheap enough in late March that even a recession wouldn ’ t cause much more downside .
You needed to believe a depression was coming to bet against the market when it was down 34 % .
Stick with the facts and don ’ t let near term price action impact your thinking .
The bull narrative from late May into early June was that economic lockdowns weren ’ t going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hits in the fall .
Plus , the bulls say we will be able to treat the virus better during the potential 2nd wave .
The bulls point to the decline in deaths in America which is real .
The bullish thesis evolved from early April to early June .
It had to become more aggressive to justify the higher valuations .
The big problem with the bullish thesis is new cases aren ’ t falling .
The country has seen a flatline in new cases as states like New York and New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Arizona , Florida , Texas , and California are in worse shape than ever .
Even if the death rate falls and states don ’ t issue shutdowns again , their economic activity will be suppressed .
The new bearish thesis is that COVID-19 caused the economic weakness , not the lockdowns .
That means the government can ’ t choose between having a weak economy or people getting sick .
The economy will be weak no matter what the government decides .
The chart below shows job postings and unemployment claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lines are the states that issued stay at home orders by March 22nd .
The next darkest line includes states with orders from March 23rd to March 30th .
The lightest line includes states with orders from March 31st and later .
The dotted line includes states that never issued stay at home orders .
Those states include Nebraska , Arkansas , Iowa , North Dakota , and South Dakota .
As you can see , all states had a similar decline in job postings and a similar increase in unemployment claims .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as impactful on the economy .
There ’ s likely a correlation between early shutdowns and the severity of the outbreak , meaning the worse the outbreak was in a state , the earlier the shutdown .
New York was hit the worst and had an early shutdown .
That makes the bearish thesis more powerful because even though the states that weren ’ t shutdown as quickly or at all didn ’ t get hit hard by the virus , their labor markets still weakened almost as much as the states that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shutdowns .
Consumer sentiment improved again in the preliminary June reading .
As you can see from the chart below , the sentiment index is actually high for a recession .
This level is consistent with an economy either just entering or exiting a recession .
With the economic data improving , it ’ s clearly not entering one .
The worry in this situation is a double dip decline in activity if the virus gets worse .
Specifically , the University of Michigan index rose from 72.3 to 78.9 which is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market could have helped sentiment , but it was likely up mostly because of the economic reopening .
Most people care more about their job and ability to live normally than the stock market .
The current conditions index rose from 82.3 to 87.8 which was a 21.5 % yearly decline .
Expectations rose from 65.9 to 73.1 which was an 18.1 % decline yearly .
The gains occurred because of improved outlooks for personal finances and the economy .
Amazingly , more consumers expected a decline in the jobless rate than at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survey .
The bad news is 2/3rds of consumers still expect bad times ahead because of persistently high unemployment .
Almost half of consumers expected a renewed downturn because of COVID-19 coming back .
Even though the Redbook same store sales growth reading was a disaster in the first week of June , the Chase consumer card spending growth index improved .
This is the 7 day average of growth in total nonrecurring spending categories .
As you can see in the chart below , growth improved from -17.9 % to -16.6 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stopped stalling out because that ’ s not a good place to end the uptrend .
That would be like a car stalling out halfway up a hill .
The jobless claims report in the week of June 6th was very good on a rate of change basis .
We ’ re still way above the previous record high before this recession , but the improvement was fantastic .
As you can see , initial claims fell from 1.9 million to 1.5 million which equates to an 18.7 % decline .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week of April 11th , when initial claims were more than triple where they are now which means they had more room to fall .
Continuing claims fell from 21.3 million to 20.9 million .
We will be laser focused on this reading not this coming week , but the next one because that ’ s the BLS monthly survey week .
The next initial claims reading this Thursday is the survey week .
The bearish thesis is if another wave of COVID-19 hits , it won ’ t matter if states don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will still weaken .
We are seeing a renewed decline in stocks because of this perspective and because the GOP is threatening to not extend the $ 600 weekly unemployment benefits .
Their argument is getting paid not to work encourages people to stay unemployed .
It does , but if there aren ’ t jobs available , incentives don ’ t matter .
Instead the extra income helps people cope with the recession .
Consumer confidence improved again as did spending growth on Chase cards .
The recent jobless claims report was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by UPFINA
Narratives tend to trail the market, meaning people come up with explanations of why the market moved after it happened. Effectively you can justify why any move happened. That’s problematic because some moves end up being head fakes and narratives ignore valuations. Firstly, if a great narrative convinces you to buy after stocks have already rallied, you will be flummoxed when the narrative instantly changes on a down day.
Stocks have supposedly risen on trade hopes and fallen on trade fears numerous times in the past few years. These are mostly meaningless characterizations. If you believed the fear in March too much, you would have avoided great buying opportunities. Valuations are critical. Prices got cheap enough in late March that even a recession wouldn’t cause much more downside. You needed to believe a depression was coming to bet against the market when it was down 34%. Stick with the facts and don’t let near term price action impact your thinking.
New Bear Thesis
The bull narrative from late May into early June was that economic lockdowns weren’t going to be reinstated even if a 2nd wave hits in the fall. Plus, the bulls say we will be able to treat the virus better during the potential 2nd wave. The bulls point to the decline in deaths in America which is real. The bullish thesis evolved from early April to early June. It had to become more aggressive to justify the higher valuations. The big problem with the bullish thesis is new cases aren’t falling. The country has seen a flatline in new cases as states like New York and New Jersey have improved dramatically, while states like Arizona, Florida, Texas, and California are in worse shape than ever. Even if the death rate falls and states don’t issue shutdowns again, their economic activity will be suppressed.
The new bearish thesis is that COVID-19 caused the economic weakness, not the lockdowns. That means the government can’t choose between having a weak economy or people getting sick. The economy will be weak no matter what the government decides. The chart below shows job postings and unemployment claims based on state policy.
The darkest lines are the states that issued stay at home orders by March 22nd. The next darkest line includes states with orders from March 23rd to March 30th. The lightest line includes states with orders from March 31st and later. The dotted line includes states that never issued stay at home orders. Those states include Nebraska, Arkansas, Iowa, North Dakota, and South Dakota. As you can see, all states had a similar decline in job postings and a similar increase in unemployment claims. This indicates shutdown decisions aren’t as impactful on the economy.
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There’s likely a correlation between early shutdowns and the severity of the outbreak, meaning the worse the outbreak was in a state, the earlier the shutdown. New York was hit the worst and had an early shutdown. That makes the bearish thesis more powerful because even though the states that weren’t shutdown as quickly or at all didn’t get hit hard by the virus, their labor markets still weakened almost as much as the states that were hit the hardest and had early shutdowns.
Consumer Sentiment Improves
Consumer sentiment improved again in the preliminary June reading. As you can see from the chart below, the sentiment index is actually high for a recession. This level is consistent with an economy either just entering or exiting a recession. With the economic data improving, it’s clearly not entering one. The worry in this situation is a double dip decline in activity if the virus gets worse.
Specifically, the University of Michigan index rose from 72.3 to 78.9 which is still down 19.7% yearly. The stock market could have helped sentiment, but it was likely up mostly because of the economic reopening. Most people care more about their job and ability to live normally than the stock market. The current conditions index rose from 82.3 to 87.8 which was a 21.5% yearly decline. Expectations rose from 65.9 to 73.1 which was an 18.1% decline yearly. The gains occurred because of improved outlooks for personal finances and the economy. Amazingly, more consumers expected a decline in the jobless rate than at any point in the history of this survey. The bad news is 2/3rds of consumers still expect bad times ahead because of persistently high unemployment. Almost half of consumers expected a renewed downturn because of COVID-19 coming back.
Consumer Spending Growth Falls Less
Even though the Redbook same store sales growth reading was a disaster in the first week of June, the Chase consumer card spending growth index improved. This is the 7 day average of growth in total nonrecurring spending categories. As you can see in the chart below, growth improved from -17.9% to -16.6%. It’s good that growth stopped stalling out because that’s not a good place to end the uptrend. That would be like a car stalling out halfway up a hill.
If you're skeptical of that claim, do you think there's been any other period where consumer spending jumped about 30% in such short a time? pic.twitter.com/ybjEGVe4G7 — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) June 12, 2020
Fantastic Jobless Claims Report (Rate of Change)
The jobless claims report in the week of June 6th was very good on a rate of change basis. We’re still way above the previous record high before this recession, but the improvement was fantastic. As you can see, initial claims fell from 1.9 million to 1.5 million which equates to an 18.7% decline. That’s the biggest weekly decline since the week of April 11th, when initial claims were more than triple where they are now which means they had more room to fall. Continuing claims fell from 21.3 million to 20.9 million. We will be laser focused on this reading not this coming week, but the next one because that’s the BLS monthly survey week. The next initial claims reading this Thursday is the survey week.
Pandemic and the damage done. In just 12 weeks 44.2 million individuals have filed for first time jobless claims. pic.twitter.com/VmJFC7JIA2 — Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) June 11, 2020
Conclusion
The bearish thesis is if another wave of COVID-19 hits, it won’t matter if states don’t shutdown. The labor market will still weaken. We are seeing a renewed decline in stocks because of this perspective and because the GOP is threatening to not extend the $600 weekly unemployment benefits. Their argument is getting paid not to work encourages people to stay unemployed. It does, but if there aren’t jobs available, incentives don’t matter. Instead the extra income helps people cope with the recession. Consumer confidence improved again as did spending growth on Chase cards. The recent jobless claims report was very good because initial claims fell sharply.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--A favorite media talking point over the past three years: Whatever President Donald Trump is doing o

A favorite media talking point over the past three years : Whatever President Donald Trump is doing on any given @ @ @ @ @ Via @ DavidRutz t.co/bXA5CVLnns pic.twitter.com/EFAKW9lIvP

A favorite media talking point over the past three years: Whatever President Donald Trump is doing on any given day is a distraction.
Via @DavidRutz t.co/bXA5CVLnns pic.twitter.com/EFAKW9lIvP
— Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) June 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Robinhooders love bankruptcies… 78% of fund managers say the market is overvalued… More zombie compa

Robinhooders love bankruptcies… 78% of fund managers say the market is overvalued… More zombie companies

What ’ s going on with the stock market ?
I think this is right : there was an incipient @ @ @ @ @ caused a massive sell-off , there was a rebound in April after the Fed stopped @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a bubble with all the retail bros t.co/xH5BMUkyqj pic.twitter.com/gpPCEz8ToR

What’s going on with the stock market? I think this is right: there was an incipient financial crisis in March that caused a massive sell-off, there was a rebound in April after the Fed stopped it, and now there’s a bubble with all the retail bros t.co/xH5BMUkyqj pic.twitter.com/gpPCEz8ToR
— Matt O'Brien (@ObsoleteDogma) June 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--How the U.S. is faring in the public-health race to safely reopen schools, businesses and daily life

How the U.S. is faring in the public-health race to safely reopen schools, businesses and daily life… Coronavirus new cases are still HIGH

How the U.S. is faring in the public-health race to safely reopen schools , businesses and daily life 🏥 Coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ t.co/WCSDkwPfPO @ wsj # Publicsafety # coronavirus # Covid_19 # pandemic # WearAMask # SocialDistancing @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/BHs22kss3M

Houston hospital bed usage stands at 79% (2,675 left available), ICU at 90% (247 left available). pic.twitter.com/ZsQxkJMtdY (via @KPRC2Aaron) #Covid19 — Gregor Peter (@L0gg0l) June 16, 2020
*TEXAS VIRUS HOSPITALIZATIONS RISE 8.3%, MOST IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS — FxMacro (@fxmacro) June 16, 2020
Very bad coronavirus update today from Arizona Record 2,392 new cases…out of 9,676 new tests (24.7%) Record highs also in hospitalizations, ventilators in use, ICU beds in use (chart below is ventilators, from state website)t.co/3W9MOUJHb2 pic.twitter.com/hqpTcJYRU9 — Steve Lookner (@lookner) June 16, 2020
Skeptical you'll return to office full-time in post-coronavirus work world? You're not alone (and get used to those virtual events, too) t.co/6aPRJLc4hk @451Research pic.twitter.com/fJSgqhYYJx — Leveraged Loans (@lcdnews) June 16, 2020
*BRAZIL HAS 34,918 COVID-19 NEW CASES IN 24 HOURS, DAILY RECORD — lemasabachthani (@lemasabachthani) June 16, 2020


BIGGEST GAIN EVER!!!?

Funny , no one talking about this number on # Fintwit today… t.co/Q4rWTA4GvM

YoY bears be like 😱 pic.twitter.com/5VGw24LNx8
MoM bulls be like 🥳
May US retail sales report:
Funny, no one talking about this number on #Fintwit today… t.co/Q4rWTA4GvM
— Mark W. Yusko (@MarkYusko) June 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--I fought the Fed and the Fed won (SPY)

I fought the Fed and the Fed won (SPY)

Don ’ t fight the Fed , JPow ’ s printer is barely warmed up .
I was up over @ @ @ @ @ from a number of solid plays : DLTR , CHWY , MGM , TSLA , @ @ @ @ @ to my losses : Positions for losses : an unlucky run of SPY Calls and @ @ @ @ @ at every turn .
I ’ m still holding a series of SPY Puts in @ @ @ @ @ got wrecked today .
Don ’ t play with money you can ’ t risk @ @ @ @ @ I know my bills will still be paid .
I ’ ll be back tomorrow @ @ @ @ @ up .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make @ @ @ @ @ the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by torrentialtacos
Don’t fight the Fed, JPow’s printer is barely warmed up.
I was up over 340% for the month from a number of solid plays: DLTR, CHWY, MGM, TSLA, etc.
Gains leading up to my losses:
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imgur.com/gallery/DDFrZhR
Positions for losses: an unlucky run of SPY Calls and Puts that inversed the market at every turn. I’m still holding a series of SPY Puts in a second WeBull account that got wrecked today.
Don’t play with money you can’t risk losing. This bites but I know my bills will still be paid. I’ll be back tomorrow to work my way back up.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Scott Minerd: Markets May Crash So Badly the Fed Has to Start Buying Stocks… Stephen Roach: A Dollar

Scott Minerd: Markets May Crash So Badly the Fed Has to Start Buying Stocks… Stephen Roach: A Dollar Crash Is Virtually Inevitable

Scott Minerd : Markets May Crash So Badly the Fed Has to Start Buying Stocks “ There ’ s a point where the Federal Reserve is going to have to pull out a bazooka , ” Minerd said in an interview .
“ And I think the option of buying stocks on the part of the Fed is on the table.
” The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time .
Stephen Roach , one of the world ’ s leading authorities on Asia , is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time , namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit , ” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC ’ s “ Trading Nation ” on Monday .
“ The dollar is going to fall very , very sharply.
” His forecast calls for a 35 % drop against other major currencies .
If Inflation Is Coming , the Market Isn ’ t Ready : WSJ Politics has changed significantly in the past decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way to create money without central-bank help .
A new inflationary era might be on the way , and if it is , the markets have got it completely wrong .
The Federal Reserve is proposing an extension of its emergency loan program to include U.S. nonprofits like universities and charitable organizations .
Fed ’ s New Facility Will Buy Junk Bonds With 7 to 1 Leverage Not only is the facility a legally questionable moral hazard , it is also nothing but an asset prices support system that keeps zombie corporations alive @

“There’s a point where the Federal Reserve is going to have to pull out a bazooka,” Minerd said in an interview. “And I think the option of buying stocks on the part of the Fed is on the table.”
The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time.
Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash.
“The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”
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His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies.
Politics has changed significantly in the past decade, and governments have found a new way to create money without central-bank help. A new inflationary era might be on the way, and if it is, the markets have got it completely wrong.
The Federal Reserve is proposing an extension of its emergency loan program to include U.S. nonprofits like universities and charitable organizations.
Not only is the facility a legally questionable moral hazard, it is also nothing but an asset prices support system that keeps zombie corporations alive.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--LMAO! Fed’s Powell says central bank has no desire to run though financial markets like “an elephant

LMAO! Fed’s Powell says central bank has no desire to run though financial markets like “an elephant,” in response to a question about Fed corporate bond buying.

Powell Says the Fed Doesn ’ t Want to ‘ Run through the Bond Market like an Elephant ’ Powell @ @ @ @ @ s announced move this week to buy corporate bonds fulfills a pledge it had made @ @ @ @ @ effort to take over the market .
Scott Minerd : Markets May Crash So Badly @ @ @ @ @ Buying Stocks “ There ’ s a point where the Federal Reserve is going to @ @ @ @ @ bazooka , ” Minerd said in an interview .
“ And I think the option @ @ @ @ @ part of the Fed is on the table .
”

Fed's Powell says central bank has no desire to run though financial markets like "an elephant," in response to a question about Fed corporate bond buying.🤔👇 pic.twitter.com/KuiVnHCG1E — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) June 16, 2020
Powell said the central bank’s announced move this week to buy corporate bonds fulfills a pledge it had made earlier but is not an effort to take over the market.
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In this debt/deficits don't matter world, hard to phathom how America is going to pay for this With income disparity at record highs, who is going to pay for this? Some version of mmt is in play already But, maybe clue. Note Trump's cherry on top.t.co/zt6YXXYmBv — G Stockus (@beatlesonbankin) June 16, 2020
Impossibly RICH that Powell calls out inequality Fed policy CREATED Powell "The burden of downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans. If not contained & reversed downturn could further widen gaps in economic well-being that long expansion had made some progress in closing" — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) June 16, 2020
Jerome Powell vs. Steven Mnuchin ⚔ pic.twitter.com/rD4JrwhKgy — Morten Lund (@meremortenlund) June 15, 2020
Fed's Clarida: More fiscal and monetary support may be called for pic.twitter.com/uyNJoIEsMA — Amit Noam Tal (@amital13) June 16, 2020
Fed: “Don’t look at us” 🤷♂ t.co/lQGzOhUtWJ — Greg S. CFA (Chartered Federal Reserve Analyst) (@GS_CapSF) June 16, 2020
Cheaper than ever (S&P500) pic.twitter.com/bb207uYCtn — Roberto Mulazzi (@robertomulazzi) June 16, 2020
“There’s a point where the Federal Reserve is going to have to pull out a bazooka,” Minerd said in an interview. “And I think the option of buying stocks on the part of the Fed is on the table.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Will we ever see the March lows again? FUNDAMENTAL DD INSIDE

From a fundamental perspective , there are 2 main ways to understand how a stock is valued .
Here ’ s my attempt to help you autists understand these concepts .
If you don ’ t understand it at the end of this , you can be confident in your Supreme autism , premium included .
First way , which I won ’ t go into great detail about , is a DCF .
A stock price is representative of the present value of all future cash flows ( in the form of dividends to shareholders ) .
This entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow .
Google is your friend to learn more .
While a DCF is a very accurate way to value a company , the risks are the multiple assumptions you have to make to triangulate a target valuation .
Pick a valuation , any valuation – bear , bull , kangaroo , whatever , and you can mess with the assumptions underlying a DCF to justify it .
My view is that justifying most of the companies/stocks popular here using this approach will lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the professional investing world , a DCF is usually the last valuation method performed , & the information you ’ re looking for isn ’ t necessarily to establish a target price for a specific stock , but to see what discount rate gets shaken out from your view on projected cash flows .
This is a very deep concept , so I ’ ll stop here ; if you ’ re interested maybe I ’ ll write about this at a later date .
Secondly , and bigly , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever , & an assigned multiple .
Still with me ?
Story time : You ’ re an autistic little boy still living in your parent ’ s basement and you want to raise money for your first Robinhood option YOLO , so you decide it , I ’ ll sell lemonade in front of my house for $ 1 a cup .
At the end of your first year selling lemonade you make $ 100 in profit/EBITDA .
Nice .
While selling lemonades one day , some guy pulls up in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lemonade business from you .
He shoots you an offer for $ 100 to buy the business off of you .
Do you sell ?
Let ’ s say you say no , and then he says ‘ ok little autist , I ’ ll give you $ 400 for it , final offer ’ .
So combined with your profits last year , you have $ 500 to buy some SPY 50Ps & you think ok , I ’ ll take it .
He says wait here , let me run to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & leaves .
The takeaway here is that let ’ s say your autistic brain thinks next year , you ’ re just going to make another $ 100 in profit/EBITDA , so essentially you ’ ve sold your business at 4x ( $ 400 / $ 100 ) .
4x is a decent multiple , especially if you think your profit/EBITDA growth is going to be flat year over year .
Great .
So you ’ re still sitting there selling lemonades waiting for the pedo man to come back with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your cracked screen iPhone 7 vibrates with incoming breaking news .
Because of global warming , all of the green scientists predict that next year will be Summer all year long .
No other seasons .
You realize that a bulk of your $ 100 in profit/EBITDA occurs during the Summer , but given the variations of the seasons , during the colder seasons your business does shittily , but now , with Summer weather for 365 days straight you revise your forward expected profit/EBITDA of $ 100 to $ 200 , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this business for too cheap .
Why is it ‘ cheap ’ ?
Because instead of 4x , you ’ re getting 2x ( $ 400 / $ 200 ) your profits at the $ 400 valuation .
White van pedo man returns & you tell him you want 4x on your newly revised projected profits of $ 200 , so $ 800 is the new price .
He scoffs & goes fine , fine – I ’ ll brb .
So this is the 2nd way stocks are valued , & the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which I ’ ve just demonstrated ) , EV/Revenue , the notoriously gamed P/E multiple or FCF yields , there are a ton of them , & it varies by industry .
Why the does any of this matter whether we re-touch the March lows or not ?
First – let ’ s say the incoming ‘ shocking ’ news does not change from the time the white van leaves to get you your $ 800 .
There is no longer a catalyst that will force you to revise your future expected profits/EBITDA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is something that you ’ re confident in , & will not change in the time period it takes for the buyer of your business to go to the bank & back with your cash .
Think of COVID & all of the news since March as becoming less & less ‘ shocking ’ .
We ’ ve had 3 months since then , projections for companies have been revised , & even the ‘ scare ’ of a 2nd wave has been reacted to/debated ad nauseam since the initial onset of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the views on future profits/earnings/EBITDA at companies are still widely dispersed with folks at opposite spectrums , we ’ ll have volatility ; but the main feature to understand is that most have come to realize that we ’ ve established a range .
Essentially , barring some devastating breaking news such as a COVID mutation etc.
, a drastic revision to bottomed out projections is unlikely to change .
Second – where did the 4x multiple come from ?
Is it just a good feeling ?
What exactly is driving you to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Enter Mr. J-Pow & currency , prices , & inflation .
You see – everyone kind of understands loosely that stocks go up / down based on a Company ’ s performance .
Not many understand why TSLA or ZM is trading at > 100x earnings , because they do not fully grasp the big green JPow shtick .
Let ’ s go back to the story about Autist Lemonade & Co. : Let ’ s say you ’ re not as autistic as people think , & as the owner of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good ‘ feel ’ for the markets .
Your parents tell you all the time the rent they should be receiving for your space in the basement has gone up 2x , 3x over the last couple years , your parents are constantly refinancing their home at lower interest rates & taking out cash to spend on vacations from a home equity line of credit as their house increases in value .
Mr. JPow letting the entire economy feel his clout .
So is 4x still a valid multiple ?
What about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is what most fundamental investors fail to completely understand .
The entire monetary system is designed to let people see incrementally bigger numbers in their bank accounts / net worth .
Mr. J-Pow ’ s job is essentially to force this to happen over many years .
Is it moral ?
Who knows , who cares .
All an autist needs to understand is that this is how risk is managed from the Mount Olympus money printer J-Pow sits on .
If you ’ re risk-averse & throw your cash in a mattress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worth less & less .
You ’ re punished for being risk-averse in this environment .
Is this because the dollar is getting weaker ?
Who knows , we can debate this over & over but all that matters is that the prices of food , gas , airplane tickets , cars stays relatively flat & that people ridden with debt have a plethora of opportunities to inflate away their debts & people with positive net worths see their portfolios rise over time without having to pay much attention .
No more stories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here ’ s what I ’ m postulating , with some actual data .
The impact of J-Pow on individual stocks is over the long run , in projected profits/EBITDA/Revenues as the increase in cash supply works its way through the economy & in the short run ( 1-year forward ) , reflected in its trading multiple .
Let ’ s look at Marriott International , the parent company of some of the most recognized hotel brands in the world from 2006 to today & cap rates for commercial real estate .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EV/EBITDA & FCF Yield ( Free Cash Flow yield ) .
I ’ m going to focus on FCF yield , which can be thought of as this : all of the cash leftover to potentially return to equity investors in the form of dividends after all required debt interest , capital expenditures etc.
, has been paid .
I took all of the actual/consensus estimated figures from 2006 to 2020 , and for share price I ’ m using the VWAP ( Google if you don ’ t know ) over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yield = Free Cash Flow per Share / VWAP ( Share Price ) , & is typically represented as a percent .
Simplified further , if a share is worth $ 100 , and FCF is $ 10 , then the yield you are expecting to receive given the Company returns all of its excess cash to you as an investor is 10 % .
If the FCF stays at $ 10 and the share price goes up to $ 200 , the expected yield is no longer 10 % , it goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 200 ) .
Given no J-Pow , little to no inflation , or any other in the markets , this ‘ multiple ’ should be flat , and the share price of a Company should go up based on Marriott ’ s performance .
Did that happen since ’ 06 ?
Lmfao .
Let ’ s look at the below analysis [ 1 ] : From ’ 06 to ’ 19 , share price has grown at a +10 % CAGR , while FCF yields have compressed by ~4 % .
40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ 06 have been attributed to multiple expansion .
Let ’ s look at when QE first started to take its effect on the markets , 2009 to 2019 .
Share price has grown by +19.6 % CAGR , and FCF yields have compressed at a 12.5 % CAGR based on Actual reported figures & 8.5 % CAGR for consensus estimates .
So up to 60 % of share price gains since 2009 has been attributed solely to multiple expansion / money printer go brrrrrrrr .
Interestingly , if you look at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s share price close of $ 90.79 & based on current consensus estimates for free cash flow , the FCF yield has compressed by 10bps to 4.1 % from 4.2 % in 2019 .
Does this mean the stock is fairly valued ?
Undervalued ?
How accurate are the estimates ?
Historically the analyst estimates have been off from actuals by ~3 % , but the standard deviation is a whopping ~12 % .
I ’ ll let the Statistician autists figure this out further .
The primary valuation method for real estate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it in the same logic as FCF yield for Marriott , except instead of free cash flow , it ’ s rent minus real estate taxes , maintenance other required shit / real estate value .
I looked at the cap rates from 1986 to May 2020 for all of the sectors – Apartments , Industrial , Malls , Office , Hotels [ 2 ] .
So since the beginning of my dataset of 1986 , cap rates have grown at a +1.8 % CAGR year over year , or a +85 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
If you had a house & collected just $ 100 of rent every year since 1986 without it changing whatsoever , the value of your property would still have appreciated by +85 % over that time period .
Asset inflation .
Since 2009 , it ’ s more or less the same story .
Cap rates have grown at a +4.3 CAGR year over year , or a +60 % increase ( lower than the ’ 86 figures due to shorter time frame ) .
What ’ s interesting is the pick-up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ printer god at work .
And they say there ’ s no ‘ inflation ’ ?
So long as there is no more ‘ shocking ’ news like the initial reaction to COVID that would cause forward expected profits/EBITDA/revenue to be drastically revised , we ’ ve entered into a perpetual bull market where trading multiples will continue to expand & with this , it ’ s safe to say the downside range has been fully established .
Will a 2nd bigger wave screw up your Calls ?
Yes , if the actual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news inflows , but assuming it isn ’ t , these multiples are here to stay & we should not touch the March lows again .
Overall best to invest in Calls , very , very selectively in Puts .
Don ’ t fight the Fed .
Asset inflation is here to stay .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by IAMB4TMAN
From a fundamental perspective, there are 2 main ways to understand how a stock is valued. Here’s my attempt to help you autists understand these concepts. If you don’t understand it at the end of this, you can be confident in your Supreme autism, premium included.
I. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF)
First way, which I won’t go into great detail about, is a DCF. A stock price is representative of the present value of all future cash flows (in the form of dividends to shareholders). This entire approach is based on the idea that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Google is your friend to learn more. While a DCF is a very accurate way to value a company, the risks are the multiple assumptions you have to make to triangulate a target valuation. Pick a valuation, any valuation – bear, bull, kangaroo, whatever, and you can mess with the assumptions underlying a DCF to justify it. My view is that justifying most of the companies/stocks popular here using this approach will lead you to conclude that everything is overvalued. In the professional investing world, a DCF is usually the last valuation method performed, & the information you’re looking for isn’t necessarily to establish a target price for a specific stock, but to see what discount rate gets shaken out from your view on projected cash flows. This is a very deep concept, so I’ll stop here; if you’re interested maybe I’ll write about this at a later date.
II. Forward Year EV/EBITDA
Secondly, and bigly, is 1-year forward expected cash flows/EBITDA/Revenue/Net Income, whatever, & an assigned multiple. Still with me? Story time:
You’re an autistic little boy still living in your parent’s basement and you want to raise money for your first Robinhood option YOLO, so you decide it, I’ll sell lemonade in front of my house for $1 a cup. At the end of your first year selling lemonade you make $100 in profit/EBITDA. Nice.
While selling lemonades one day, some guy pulls up in a white van & offers to acquire your lemonade business from you. He shoots you an offer for $100 to buy the business off of you. Do you sell? Let’s say you say no, and then he says ‘ok little autist, I’ll give you $400 for it, final offer’. So combined with your profits last year, you have $500 to buy some SPY 50Ps & you think ok, I’ll take it. He says wait here, let me run to the bank to get you the cash & leaves. The takeaway here is that let’s say your autistic brain thinks next year, you’re just going to make another $100 in profit/EBITDA, so essentially you’ve sold your business at 4x ($400 / $100). 4x is a decent multiple, especially if you think your profit/EBITDA growth is going to be flat year over year. Great.
So you’re still sitting there selling lemonades waiting for the pedo man to come back with the $400 & all of a sudden your cracked screen iPhone 7 vibrates with incoming breaking news. Because of global warming, all of the green scientists predict that next year will be Summer all year long. No other seasons. You realize that a bulk of your $100 in profit/EBITDA occurs during the Summer, but given the variations of the seasons, during the colder seasons your business does shittily, but now, with Summer weather for 365 days straight you revise your forward expected profit/EBITDA of $100 to $200, and you realize, I’m selling this business for too cheap. Why is it ‘cheap’? Because instead of 4x, you’re getting 2x ($400 / $200) your profits at the $400 valuation. White van pedo man returns & you tell him you want 4x on your newly revised projected profits of $200, so $800 is the new price. He scoffs & goes fine, fine – I’ll brb.
So this is the 2nd way stocks are valued, & the multiples whether it’s EV/EBITDA (which I’ve just demonstrated), EV/Revenue, the notoriously gamed P/E multiple or FCF yields, there are a ton of them, & it varies by industry.
Why the does any of this matter whether we re-touch the March lows or not?
First – let’s say the incoming ‘shocking’ news does not change from the time the white van leaves to get you your $800. There is no longer a catalyst that will force you to revise your future expected profits/EBITDA. So the $200 forward projection is something that you’re confident in, & will not change in the time period it takes for the buyer of your business to go to the bank & back with your cash.
Think of COVID & all of the news since March as becoming less & less ‘shocking’. We’ve had 3 months since then, projections for companies have been revised, & even the ‘scare’ of a 2nd wave has been reacted to/debated ad nauseam since the initial onset of the global economic lockdowns. So long as the views on future profits/earnings/EBITDA at companies are still widely dispersed with folks at opposite spectrums, we’ll have volatility; but the main feature to understand is that most have come to realize that we’ve established a range. Essentially, barring some devastating breaking news such as a COVID mutation etc., a drastic revision to bottomed out projections is unlikely to change.
Second – where did the 4x multiple come from? Is it just a good feeling? What exactly is driving you to conclude that 4x is the appropriate number. Enter Mr. J-Pow & currency, prices, & inflation.
You see – everyone kind of understands loosely that stocks go up / down based on a Company’s performance. Not many understand why TSLA or ZM is trading at >100x earnings, because they do not fully grasp the big green JPow shtick. Let’s go back to the story about Autist Lemonade & Co.:
Let’s say you’re not as autistic as people think, & as the owner of a prestigious lemonade company, you have a good ‘feel’ for the markets. Your parents tell you all the time the rent they should be receiving for your space in the basement has gone up 2x, 3x over the last couple years, your parents are constantly refinancing their home at lower interest rates & taking out cash to spend on vacations from a home equity line of credit as their house increases in value. Mr. JPow letting the entire economy feel his clout. So is 4x still a valid multiple? What about 8x? 10x? 20x?
This is what most fundamental investors fail to completely understand. The entire monetary system is designed to let people see incrementally bigger numbers in their bank accounts / net worth. Mr. J-Pow’s job is essentially to force this to happen over many years. Is it moral? Who knows, who cares. All an autist needs to understand is that this is how risk is managed from the Mount Olympus money printer J-Pow sits on. If you’re risk-averse & throw your cash in a mattress, over time that cash will becoming worth less & less. You’re punished for being risk-averse in this environment. Is this because the dollar is getting weaker? Who knows, we can debate this over & over but all that matters is that the prices of food, gas, airplane tickets, cars stays relatively flat & that people ridden with debt have a plethora of opportunities to inflate away their debts & people with positive net worths see their portfolios rise over time without having to pay much attention.
No more stories, give me a ticker!
So here’s what I’m postulating, with some actual data. The impact of J-Pow on individual stocks is over the long run, in projected profits/EBITDA/Revenues as the increase in cash supply works its way through the economy & in the short run (1-year forward), reflected in its trading multiple.
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Let’s look at Marriott International, the parent company of some of the most recognized hotel brands in the world from 2006 to today & cap rates for commercial real estate.
I. Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR)
The most relevant multiple for the hoteliers is EV/EBITDA & FCF Yield (Free Cash Flow yield). I’m going to focus on FCF yield, which can be thought of as this: all of the cash leftover to potentially return to equity investors in the form of dividends after all required debt interest, capital expenditures etc., has been paid. I took all of the actual/consensus estimated figures from 2006 to 2020, and for share price I’m using the VWAP (Google if you don’t know) over the course of each year. So FCF yield = Free Cash Flow per Share / VWAP (Share Price), & is typically represented as a percent. Simplified further, if a share is worth $100, and FCF is $10, then the yield you are expecting to receive given the Company returns all of its excess cash to you as an investor is 10%. If the FCF stays at $10 and the share price goes up to $200, the expected yield is no longer 10%, it goes to 5% ($10 / $200).
Given no J-Pow, little to no inflation, or any other in the markets, this ‘multiple’ should be flat, and the share price of a Company should go up based on Marriott’s performance. Did that happen since ’06? Lmfao.
Let’s look at the below analysis [1]:
Marriott FCF Yield Analysis
From ’06 to ’19, share price has grown at a +10% CAGR, while FCF yields have compressed by ~4%. 40% of the share price gains from ’06 have been attributed to multiple expansion. Let’s look at when QE first started to take its effect on the markets, 2009 to 2019. Share price has grown by +19.6% CAGR, and FCF yields have compressed at a 12.5% CAGR based on Actual reported figures & 8.5% CAGR for consensus estimates. So up to 60% of share price gains since 2009 has been attributed solely to multiple expansion / money printer go brrrrrrrr.
Interestingly, if you look at the 2020E column, I put yesterday’s share price close of $90.79 & based on current consensus estimates for free cash flow, the FCF yield has compressed by 10bps to 4.1% from 4.2% in 2019. Does this mean the stock is fairly valued? Undervalued? How accurate are the estimates? Historically the analyst estimates have been off from actuals by ~3%, but the standard deviation is a whopping ~12%. I’ll let the Statistician autists figure this out further.
II. Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates
The primary valuation method for real estate is implied cap rates. Think of it in the same logic as FCF yield for Marriott, except instead of free cash flow, it’s rent minus real estate taxes, maintenance other required shit / real estate value. I looked at the cap rates from 1986 to May 2020 for all of the sectors – Apartments, Industrial, Malls, Office, Hotels [2].
So since the beginning of my dataset of 1986, cap rates have grown at a +1.8% CAGR year over year, or a +85% increase overall. What does this mean? If you had a house & collected just $100 of rent every year since 1986 without it changing whatsoever, the value of your property would still have appreciated by +85% over that time period. Asset inflation.
Since 2009, it’s more or less the same story. Cap rates have grown at a +4.3 CAGR year over year, or a +60% increase (lower than the ’86 figures due to shorter time frame). What’s interesting is the pick-up in the CAGR since 2009. Money printer god at work. And they say there’s no ‘inflation’?
Conclusion
So long as there is no more ‘shocking’ news like the initial reaction to COVID that would cause forward expected profits/EBITDA/revenue to be drastically revised, we’ve entered into a perpetual bull market where trading multiples will continue to expand & with this, it’s safe to say the downside range has been fully established. Will a 2nd bigger wave screw up your Calls? Yes, if the actual news inflow is much different than expected news inflows, but assuming it isn’t, these multiples are here to stay & we should not touch the March lows again.
TL;DR
Overall best to invest in Calls, very, very selectively in Puts. Don’t fight the Fed. Asset inflation is here to stay.
[1] Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, SEC filings.
[2] Green Street Advisors – Property Sector Nominal Cap Rates updated May 19, 2020.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--America, get ready for your new police-free reality (Good time to buy more ammo)

When the left say they want to abolish the police , they mean it .
The reality of the progressive @ @ @ @ @ 19 Atlanta officers have resigned after Rayshard Brooks shooting 10 SWAT members in South Florida @ @ @ @ @ they feel unsafely restrained by politics Seven Minneapolis police officers resign after George Floyd protests @ @ @ @ @ from city leaders NYPD police prepare to leave force , saying top brass abandoned them @ @ @ @ @ uniformed officers being poisoned at Manhattan restaurant LAPD sources tell me morale is at “ @ @ @ @ @ response time more than triples due to Seattle occupy protesters

by DCG
Buy. Lots. Of. Ammo.
When the left say they want to abolish the police, they mean it.
The reality of the progressive #defundpolice/BLM agenda:
Some 19 Atlanta officers have resigned after Rayshard Brooks shooting
10 SWAT members in South Florida resign from unit, saying they feel unsafely restrained by politics
Seven Minneapolis police officers resign after George Floyd protests, citing lack of support from city leaders
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NYPD police prepare to leave force, saying top brass abandoned them
NYPD investigating incident of multiple uniformed officers being poisoned at Manhattan restaurant
LAPD sources tell me morale is at “rock bottom”.
Emergency response time more than triples due to Seattle occupy protesters
Dangerous times ahead, very dangerous. Be prepared, folks.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Where Money Is Hiding in the Market | Q&A with Jim Rogers

International Editor Kim Iskyan chats with legendary investor Jim Rogers about where money is hiding in the market .
Rogers also shares his take on the evolving “ Melt Up , ” and what he thinks is coming next for markets .
He also gives his take on the impact of the upcoming presidential election , why the 21st century belongs to China , and his best strategy for investors to succeed .
Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973 , helping to steer the fund to a 4200 % return before “ retiring ” at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be one of the greatest investors of all time .
Rogers has made two record-setting journeys – once by motorcycle and once by car – and is in the Guinness Book of World Records for doing so .
In between his frequent travels , he has served as a professor at Columbia University , started his own commodity index and is a frequent media commentator worldwide .
Rogers has also authored six books .
He currently lives in Singapore with his family .
Jim has authored a half dozen books , including : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jim Rogers ( NYTimes Bestseller ) , Adventure Capitalist , Hot Commodities ( NYTimes Bestseller ) , A Bull in China , A Gift to My Children , and most recently , Street Smarts .

Stansberry Research, Released on 6/12/20
International Editor Kim Iskyan chats with legendary investor Jim Rogers about where money is hiding in the market.
Rogers also shares his take on the evolving “Melt Up,” and what he thinks is coming next for markets.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
He also gives his take on the impact of the upcoming presidential election, why the 21st century belongs to China, and his best strategy for investors to succeed.
Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973, helping to steer the fund to a 4200% return before “retiring” at age 37. He is considered to be one of the greatest investors of all time. Rogers has made two record-setting journeys – once by motorcycle and once by car – and is in the Guinness Book of World Records for doing so. In between his frequent travels, he has served as a professor at Columbia University, started his own commodity index and is a frequent media commentator worldwide. Rogers has also authored six books. He currently lives in Singapore with his family. Jim has authored a half dozen books, including: Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers (NYTimes Bestseller), Adventure Capitalist, Hot Commodities (NYTimes Bestseller), A Bull in China, A Gift to My Children, and most recently, Street Smarts.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Wild swings will drag stocks lower, hedge fund manager Mark Yusko warns

Mark Yusko , Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO & CIO , on the market ’ s swings and why he @ @ @ @ @ a second wave of coronavirus .
Mark Yusko is the Founder , CEO and Chief @ @ @ @ @ Capital Management .
He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets .
@ @ @ @ @ founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $ 2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary @ @ @ @ @ Morgan Creek , Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company ( UNCMC @ @ @ @ @ office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill .
Before that , he @ @ @ @ @ the University of Notre Dame Investment Office .

CNBC, Released on 6/15/20
Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO & CIO, on the market’s swings and why he’s not worried about a second wave of coronavirus.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--EXPLOSIVE: more UK Covid “experts” facing serious data manipulation charges

The Government ’ s leading body for Covid19 drug trials – led by the controversial character Professor Peter Horby – stands accused of grossly misleading negative trial results for the coronavirus management drug Hydroxychloroqhine .
Will this at last be a wake-up call for Boris Johnson ?
The lead story in today ’ s France Soir – a long-respected and unaligned French daily – presents compelling evidence to suggest that the Whitehall/Cabinet Covid19 “ advice ” team can not be trusted….and raises yet more doubts about BBC complicity in a false Coronavirus narrative .
Last May 10th , The Slog @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given by ‘ Recovery ’ boss Professor Peter Horby on the Marr Show .
Subsequent events would appear to be proving my analysis correct .
Professor Peter Horby is an epidemiologist , and the Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health at the University of Oxford .
He chairs the UK government ’ s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group ( NERVTAG ) .
In addition , seven weeks ago he was charged with leading the ‘ Recovery ’ trial team into drugs for COVID-19 .
It obviously goes without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Big Pharma lobying and ‘ research ’ funding army , a person in such a position must be seen to have total command of the science involved , and be beyond reproach when it comes to commercial conflicts of interest .
As this site has already established , two months ago , his Oxford department announced an agreement with the UK-based global biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca for the further development , large-scale manufacture and potential distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine candidate currently being trialled by the University .
Eight days ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this cozy exchange on Twitter in relation to trials of the Covid victim management drug Hyroxychloroquine ( HCQ ) : Three days earlier , Horby triumphantly tweeted twice in a duo that categorically confined HCQ to the dustbin of failed Covid19 management drugs : You will be unsurprised to learn that HCQ is not a drug made by AstraZeneca .
What you probably don ’ t know is that both Corby ’ s assertions about dosage levels and ‘ no benefit ’ do not appear to be borne out by the facts of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although the Professor ( unless he ’ s been on another planet since January ) knows that successful HCQ therapy involves a cocktail of other elements – for example zinc – he chose not to use that combo in the trials .
For some time now , a dedicated team at France Soir has been following this and other sagas concerning Covid19 treatments and distortion of test results .
It ’ s lead piece today is headlined ‘ Recovery Fraud ’ in relation to the assertions of Horby and Landray .
These are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the doses of HCQ administered were four times higher than those recommended by successful trials in France and India ; this added to the high toxicity of the therapy and a uniquely high death rate ; smaller doses with the use of successful cocktails to further reduce toxicity would have potentially produced a far higher recovery rate .
This is certainly borne out by two major studies in New York City , both of which showed HCQ cocktail recovery levels at 88-95 % .
Equally alarming ( according to France Soir ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain points in their interview with him to be unclear about the difference between Hydroxychloraquine and hydroxyquinoline .
This from a senior member of the team “ advising ” the United Kingdom Government on the trial of drugs variously designed to vacccinate against Covid19 and improve the management of infection survival .
Above all , however , the blanket Horby disavowal of the HCQ therapy is totally unjustified , and should be withdrawn .
From a British perspective , the issues raised by this latest revelation about Horby and his team demand answers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , let us pause for reflection here .
Those rallied against HCQ treatments are Horby ’ s Oxford Recovery mob , Dr Fauci , the World Health Organisation and – almost without exception – Big Pharma .
All of them have evoked in me ( based on their established behaviour over time ) doubts about credibility .
Even the Lancet has now begun to smell what it thinks might be a rat : on June 3rd , it issued an “ expression of concern ” over a large-scale study of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Organization suspending clinical trials of the anti-viral drugs as a potential treatment for COVID-19 .
In a statement , the medical journal acknowledged “ important ” questions over the research , after dozens of scientists issued an open letter raising concerns about methodology and transparency around the data , which was provided by the firm Surgisphere .
The American FDA has been sitting on ( and occasionally rubbishing ) HCQ cocktail infection management for Covid19 since Day 1 .
I have grave doubts about either the FDA or WHO ’ s freedom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American Medical Association .
I have been looking into the entire Covid19 canvas now for nearly six months .
My own opinion is threefold : expectations of vaccine development are ludicrously optimistic – and may indeed prove useless for this virus ; given the incredibly low deathrate for those under age 70 , whether we need a vaccine in the first place is highly questionable ; and tests not carried out by those with a moral hazard in relation to Big Pharma show that HCQ cocktails administered early at the correct dosage level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 85 % .
The role of Pharma lobbying and research funding is , I think , a central factor in the misleading murk and manipulated data , press coverage and sovereign approaches to this virus .
The UK ramifications are disturbing on so many levels , it seems to me that Peter Hitchens was absolutely spot-on last Sunday when he said that “ the Johnson Administration is in Office , but not in power ” .
Here are the urgent questions to which we all need answers : • Whitehall keeps on wheeling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to “ advice ” on Covid19 .
From Neil Ferguson onwards , they are tainted by oddities and incompetence in the past , holding left-wing and pro-EU views , connected to questionable research funding and serially misleading in their conclusions .
Why ?
• Blatant Times , Guardian , BBC and SkyNews bias towards critiques of ‘ Tory ’ policy , support for Lockdown , zero investigation of dubious data and using “ experts ” who turn out to be anything but ( frequently via Andrew Marr ) represents a dereliction of duty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• There remain very clear signs of persistent leaking to , and briefing of , the media by senior Whitehall officials , who are also keeping the Opposition Labour Party ‘ up to speed ’ on the latest ‘ disaster ’ .
• In particular , Twitter and Facebook censorship of users questioning the overall narrative are of grave concern .
Despite its constant refrain of being “ led by the science ” , the Johnson Cabinet is in reality being – dare I say it – deliberately misled by rather mediocre @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consciously or otherwise ) as agents for Big Pharma .
In turn , the role of Sir Mark Sedwill in this growing farrago needs some daylight cast upon it .
But above all , we need to ask why French MSMs like France Soir and Libération ( or even retired wrinklies in Aquitaine ) seem able to investigate mendacity in high places….while the British media seem barely able to tie their own shoelaces – let alone become effective Gumshoes .

by John Ward
Professor Horby once more mired in controversy….he’s the one on the Left
The Government’s leading body for Covid19 drug trials – led by the controversial character Professor Peter Horby – stands accused of grossly misleading negative trial results for the coronavirus management drug Hydroxychloroqhine. Will this at last be a wake-up call for Boris Johnson?
The lead story in today’s France Soir – a long-respected and unaligned French daily – presents compelling evidence to suggest that the Whitehall/Cabinet Covid19 “advice” team cannot be trusted….and raises yet more doubts about BBC complicity in a false Coronavirus narrative.
Last May 10th, The Slog wrote a scathing critique of the interview given by ‘Recovery’ boss Professor Peter Horby on the Marr Show. Subsequent events would appear to be proving my analysis correct.
Professor Peter Horby is an epidemiologist, and the Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health at the University of Oxford. He chairs the UK government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG). In addition, seven weeks ago he was charged with leading the ‘Recovery’ trial team into drugs for COVID-19.
It obviously goes without saying that, given the tentacular influence of the Big Pharma lobying and ‘research’ funding army, a person in such a position must be seen to have total command of the science involved, and be beyond reproach when it comes to commercial conflicts of interest. As this site has already established, two months ago, his Oxford department announced an agreement with the UK-based global biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca for the further development, large-scale manufacture and potential distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine candidate currently being trialled by the University.
So that wasn’t a good start.
Eight days ago, Horby and his colleague Martin Landray shared this cozy exchange on Twitter in relation to trials of the Covid victim management drug Hyroxychloroquine (HCQ):
Three days earlier, Horby triumphantly tweeted twice in a duo that categorically confined HCQ to the dustbin of failed Covid19 management drugs:
You will be unsurprised to learn that HCQ is not a drug made by AstraZeneca. What you probably don’t know is that both Corby’s assertions about dosage levels and ‘no benefit’ do not appear to be borne out by the facts of the trial and other trials elsewhere….plus, although the Professor (unless he’s been on another planet since January) knows that successful HCQ therapy involves a cocktail of other elements – for example zinc – he chose not to use that combo in the trials.
For some time now, a dedicated team at France Soir has been following this and other sagas concerning Covid19 treatments and distortion of test results. It’s lead piece today is headlined ‘Recovery Fraud’ in relation to the assertions of Horby and Landray.
These are the key elements of the article: the doses of HCQ administered were four times higher than those recommended by successful trials in France and India; this added to the high toxicity of the therapy and a uniquely high death rate; smaller doses with the use of successful cocktails to further reduce toxicity would have potentially produced a far higher recovery rate.
This is certainly borne out by two major studies in New York City, both of which showed HCQ cocktail recovery levels at 88-95%.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Equally alarming (according to France Soir’s team) is that Landray seems at certain points in their interview with him to be unclear about the difference between Hydroxychloraquine and hydroxyquinoline.
This from a senior member of the team “advising” the United Kingdom Government on the trial of drugs variously designed to vacccinate against Covid19 and improve the management of infection survival.
Above all, however, the blanket Horby disavowal of the HCQ therapy is totally unjustified, and should be withdrawn.
From a British perspective, the issues raised by this latest revelation about Horby and his team demand answers to myriad crucial questions. But first, let us pause for reflection here. Those rallied against HCQ treatments are Horby’s Oxford Recovery mob, Dr Fauci, the World Health Organisation and – almost without exception – Big Pharma. All of them have evoked in me (based on their established behaviour over time) doubts about credibility.
Even the Lancet has now begun to smell what it thinks might be a rat: on June 3rd, it issued an “expression of concern” over a large-scale study of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine it published that led to the World Health Organization suspending clinical trials of the anti-viral drugs as a potential treatment for COVID-19.
In a statement, the medical journal acknowledged “important” questions over the research, after dozens of scientists issued an open letter raising concerns about methodology and transparency around the data, which was provided by the firm Surgisphere.
The American FDA has been sitting on (and occasionally rubbishing) HCQ cocktail infection management for Covid19 since Day 1. I have grave doubts about either the FDA or WHO’s freedom from malign Pharma influence….as indeed does the American Medical Association.
I have been looking into the entire Covid19 canvas now for nearly six months. My own opinion is threefold: expectations of vaccine development are ludicrously optimistic – and may indeed prove useless for this virus; given the incredibly low deathrate for those under age 70, whether we need a vaccine in the first place is highly questionable; and tests not carried out by those with a moral hazard in relation to Big Pharma show that HCQ cocktails administered early at the correct dosage level can cut even 70+ deaths by around 85%.
The role of Pharma lobbying and research funding is, I think, a central factor in the misleading murk and manipulated data, press coverage and sovereign approaches to this virus.
The UK ramifications are disturbing on so many levels, it seems to me that Peter Hitchens was absolutely spot-on last Sunday when he said that “the Johnson Administration is in Office, but not in power”. Here are the urgent questions to which we all need answers:
Whitehall keeps on wheeling out truly appalling duds when it comes to “advice” on Covid19. From Neil Ferguson onwards, they are tainted by oddities and incompetence in the past, holding left-wing and pro-EU views, connected to questionable research funding and serially misleading in their conclusions. Why?
Blatant Times, Guardian, BBC and SkyNews bias towards critiques of ‘Tory’ policy, support for Lockdown, zero investigation of dubious data and using “experts” who turn out to be anything but (frequently via Andrew Marr) represents a dereliction of duty on the part of the British MSM.
There remain very clear signs of persistent leaking to, and briefing of, the media by senior Whitehall officials, who are also keeping the Opposition Labour Party ‘up to speed’ on the latest ‘disaster’.
In particular, Twitter and Facebook censorship of users questioning the overall narrative are of grave concern.
Despite its constant refrain of being “led by the science”, the Johnson Cabinet is in reality being – dare I say it – deliberately misled by rather mediocre Second Division virologists and modellers acting (consciously or otherwise) as agents for Big Pharma.
In turn, the role of Sir Mark Sedwill in this growing farrago needs some daylight cast upon it.
But above all, we need to ask why French MSMs like France Soir and Libération (or even retired wrinklies in Aquitaine) seem able to investigate mendacity in high places….while the British media seem barely able to tie their own shoelaces – let alone become effective Gumshoes.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Pastor Manning Preaching “we have a problem”

He ’ s right !
They ’ re used and taken advantage of by the filthy , corrupt politicians and @ @ @ @ @ own wicked agendas because they know they don ’ t understand the world .

He’s right! They’re used and taken advantage of by the filthy, corrupt politicians and their bolshevik financiers for their own wicked agendas because they know they don’t understand the world.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--FACT: HR 6666 WAS PLANNED BY BILL GATES & DEMOCRATS 6 MONTHS BEFORE COVID-19!

What do Congressman Bobbie Rush , Bill Gates , a trip to Rwanda , Africa , and a Billion dollars @ @ @ @ @ They all took place BEFORE the so called “ spontaneous ” Chinese Kung Flu outbreak @ @ @ @ @ this was all planned… They thought meeting in Africa would protect them .

What do Congressman Bobbie Rush, Bill Gates, a trip to Rwanda, Africa, and a Billion dollars all have in common?
They all took place BEFORE the so called “spontaneous” Chinese Kung Flu outbreak. Here is more proof this was all planned…
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They thought meeting in Africa would protect them.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--UK Real Wages have fallen by over 2% as the unemployment rate looks to have passed 5%

On Friday we got some insight into the state of play of UK output and GDP in April with the caveats I pointed out at the time .
This morning has seen us receive the official figures on employment , unemployment and wages which shed with caveats further insight as to where we are .
So let us take a look at the opening line .
There is quite a bit going on in that paragraph and it is hard to avoid a wry smile at us being directed towards the Claimant Count that was first regarded as unreliable and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yes Minister TV series , There is also an episode where Jim Hacker tells us nobody actually believes the unemployment ( Claimant Count ) numbers .
The tweek to the Universal Credit system is welcome in helping people in trouble but does also add more smoke to the view .
We can dig deeper and let us start with a little more precision .
Let me give our statisticians credit for looking at other sources of data to glean more information .
But in this area there is an elephant in the room @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Regular readers of my work will be aware of this issue but there is more .
As the estimate for them is of the order of 6 million we find that our employment fall estimate could be out by a factor of ten !
Breaking it down there are all sorts of categories from those who will be unemployed as soon as the scheme ends to those who have been working as well ( sometimes for the same employer ) who may be getting an official knock on the door .
Also the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pointed out today .
So the best guide we have comes from this in my opinion .
In terms of a graph we have quite a lurch .
I doubt many of you will be surprised to learn this bit .
With hotels shut and restaurants doing take out at best I am in fact surprised the numbers have not fallen further .
The conventional measures are simply not cutting it .
We can apply the methodology I used for Italy on the 3rd of this month where we discovered that a flaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regard as unemployed in the inactivity data .
If we count the extra inactivity as unemployed we have some 349,000 more or if you prefer an unemployment rate of 5.1 % .
This begins to bring the numbers closer to reality although we are not allowing for those who will be unemployed as soon as the furlough scheme ends .
Also we are not allowing for the scale of underemployment revealed by the hours worked figures .
I doubt anyone is going to be too surprised by the fall here .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before .
We see that bonuses plunged if we throw a veil over the double negative below .
If we look at April alone we get an even grimmer picture .
Already real wages were in trouble .
So even using the woeful official measure driven by Imputed Rents we see a real wages decline of 1.8 % in April .
A much more realistic measure is of course the Retail Prices Index or RPI which shows a 2.4 % fall for real wages in April .
On this subject there has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ LSE giving more power to the RPI ’ s elbow .
I will look at this more when we come to the UK inflation data but it is another nail on the coffin for official claims and if I may be so bold a slap on the back for my arguments .
Today ’ s journey shows that with a little thought and application we can do better than the official data .
Our estimate of the unemployment rate of 5.1 % is more realistic than the official 3.9 % although the weakness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must be underemployment on a grand scale .
Shifting to real wages we fear that they may have fallen by over 3 % in April as opposed to the official headline of a 0.4 % fall .
So we get closer to reality even when it is an unattractive one .
Staying with wages the numbers are being influenced by this .
Also Is it rude to point out that we are guided towards the monthly GDP statistics but told that the monthly wages ones ( a much longer running series ) are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK Statistics Authority needs to get a grip and preferably soon .

by Shaun Richards
On Friday we got some insight into the state of play of UK output and GDP in April with the caveats I pointed out at the time. This morning has seen us receive the official figures on employment, unemployment and wages which shed with caveats further insight as to where we are. So let us take a look at the opening line.
Early indicators for May 2020 suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down over 600,000 compared with March 2020. The Claimant Count has continued to rise, enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government’s response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) mean an increase in the number of people eligible.
There is quite a bit going on in that paragraph and it is hard to avoid a wry smile at us being directed towards the Claimant Count that was first regarded as unreliable and manipulated back in the 1980s in the Yes Minister TV series,
Sir Humphrey: We didn’t raise it to enable them to learn more! We raised it to keep teenagers off the job market and hold down the unemployment figures.
There is also an episode where Jim Hacker tells us nobody actually believes the unemployment ( Claimant Count) numbers. The tweek to the Universal Credit system is welcome in helping people in trouble but does also add more smoke to the view.
Employment
We can dig deeper and let us start with a little more precision.
Experimental data of the number of payroll employees using HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Pay As You Earn Real Time Information figures show a fall in payroll employees in recent months. Early estimates for May 2020 from PAYE RTI indicate that the number of payroll employees fell by 2.1% (612,000) compared with March 2020.
Let me give our statisticians credit for looking at other sources of data to glean more information. But in this area there is an elephant in the room and it is a large one.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of employment includes those who worked in a job for at least one hour and those temporarily absent from a job.
Regular readers of my work will be aware of this issue but there is more.
Workers furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), or who are self-employed but temporarily not in work, have a reasonable expectation of returning to their jobs after a temporary period of absence. Therefore, they are classified as employed under the ILO definition.
As the estimate for them is of the order of 6 million we find that our employment fall estimate could be out by a factor of ten! Breaking it down there are all sorts of categories from those who will be unemployed as soon as the scheme ends to those who have been working as well ( sometimes for the same employer) who may be getting an official knock on the door. Also the numbers keep rising as HM Treasury has pointed out today.
By midnight on 14 June there’s been a total of: 9.1m jobs furloughed £20.8bn claimed in total
So the best guide we have comes from this in my opinion.
Between February to April 2019 and February to April 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by 94.2 million, or 8.9%, to 959.9 million hours. A decrease of 91.2 million or 8.7% was also seen on the quarter.
In terms of a graph we have quite a lurch.
I doubt many of you will be surprised to learn this bit.
The “accommodation and food service activities” industrial sector saw the biggest fall in average actual hours; down 6.9 hours to 21.2 hours per week.
With hotels shut and restaurants doing take out at best I am in fact surprised the numbers have not fallen further.
Unemployment
The conventional measures are simply not cutting it.
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For February to April 2020: the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 3.9%; 0.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier but unchanged on the previous quarter.
We can apply the methodology I used for Italy on the 3rd of this month where we discovered that a flaw meant that we found what we would regard as unemployed in the inactivity data.
The single-month estimate for the economic inactivity rate, for people aged 16 to 64 years in the UK, for April 2020, was 20.9%, the highest since August 2019. This represents an increase of 0.7 percentage points on the previous month (March 2020) and a record increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with three months ago (January 2020).
If we count the extra inactivity as unemployed we have some 349,000 more or if you prefer an unemployment rate of 5.1%. This begins to bring the numbers closer to reality although we are not allowing for those who will be unemployed as soon as the furlough scheme ends. Also we are not allowing for the scale of underemployment revealed by the hours worked figures.
Wages and Real Wages
I doubt anyone is going to be too surprised by the fall here.
Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in the three months to April 2020 was 1.0% for total pay (including bonuses) and 1.7% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).
It is quite a drop on what we had before.
Annual growth has slowed sharply for both total and regular pay compared with the period prior to introduction of the corona virus lockdown measures (December to February 2020), when it was 2.9%.
We see that bonuses plunged if we throw a veil over the double negative below.
The difference between the two measures is because of subdued bonuses, which fell by an average negative 6.8% (in nominal terms) in the three months February to April 2020.
If we look at April alone we get an even grimmer picture.
Single month growth in average weekly earnings for April 2020 was negative 0.9% for total pay and 0% for regular pay.
Already real wages were in trouble.
The 1.0% growth in total pay in February to April 2020 translates to a fall of negative 0.4% in real terms (that is, total pay grew slower than inflation); in comparison, regular pay grew in real terms, by 0.4%, the difference being driven by subdued bonuses in recent months.
So even using the woeful official measure driven by Imputed Rents we see a real wages decline of 1.8% in April. A much more realistic measure is of course the Retail Prices Index or RPI which shows a 2.4% fall for real wages in April.
On this subject there has been some research from my alma mater the LSE giving more power to the RPI’s elbow.
Aggregate month-to-month inflation was 2.4% in the first month of lockdown, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months.
I will look at this more when we come to the UK inflation data but it is another nail on the coffin for official claims and if I may be so bold a slap on the back for my arguments.
Comment
Today’s journey shows that with a little thought and application we can do better than the official data. Our estimate of the unemployment rate of 5.1% is more realistic than the official 3.9% although the weakness is an inability to allow for what must be underemployment on a grand scale. Shifting to real wages we fear that they may have fallen by over 3% in April as opposed to the official headline of a 0.4% fall. So we get closer to reality even when it is an unattractive one.
Staying with wages the numbers are being influenced by this.
Pay estimates are based on all employees on company payrolls, including those who have been furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).
Also Is it rude to point out that we are guided towards the monthly GDP statistics but told that the monthly wages ones ( a much longer running series) are less reliable?. Someone at the UK Statistics Authority needs to get a grip and preferably soon .


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Economist: Congress must incentivize employment, not unemployment

Some economic experts have said that despite only being in the early stages of a U.S. recovery , there are @ @ @ @ @ One America ’ s Stefan Kleinhenz has more from Washington .

Some economic experts have said that despite only being in the early stages of a U.S. recovery, there are some very encouraging signs. One America’s Stefan Kleinhenz has more from Washington.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Chesapeake May Go Bankrupt This Week

Chesapeake May Go Bankrupt This Week

Chesapeake Energy could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection later this week , according to unnamed sources who spoke to Reuters .
A separate report by MarketWatch also cited an unnamed source as saying that this week was the week for Chesapeake to throw in the towel .
According to Reuters ’ sources , the shale major was currently negotiating a loan that it would get on a debtor-in-possession basis to stay afloat during Chapter 11 procedures .
The loan would reportedly be worth $ 900 million .
Chesapeake was also in talks to add some of its current debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed , would push the debtor-in-possession facility to $ 2 billion .
The company ’ s total existing debt is over $ 9 billion .
The MarketWatch sources said the bankruptcy decision was made after this week Chesapeake missed a bond payment of $ 10 million due Monday .
The missed deadline was the beginning a grace period for negotiations with bondholders , but the company has decided to file for Chapter 11 protection instead , in the coming weeks or even days , the sources told MarketWatch .
If the bankruptcy filing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largest shale player to date to go under in the current crisis .
But this is not the first time the company has had dramatic troubles .
During the last crisis , between 2014 and 2016 , Chesapeake risked bankruptcy , but managed to avoid court proceedings through a series of out-of-court debt exchanges , according to MarketWatch .
This time things are different , and debt exchanges may not be enough to save the company .
Chesapeake reported a net loss of $ 8 billion for the first quarter , up from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a year earlier .
Its stock and bond prices were pummeled to the ground by the oil price war and the pandemic like the stocks and bonds of so many others but , as many warned , those with the largest debt burdens would be the first to go .

By Charles Kennedy
Chesapeake Energy could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection later this week, according to unnamed sources who spoke to Reuters.
A separate report by MarketWatch also cited an unnamed source as saying that this week was the week for Chesapeake to throw in the towel.
According to Reuters’ sources, the shale major was currently negotiating a loan that it would get on a debtor-in-possession basis to stay afloat during Chapter 11 procedures. The loan would reportedly be worth $900 million. Chesapeake was also in talks to add some of its current debt to this loan, which, if agreed, would push the debtor-in-possession facility to $2 billion. The company’s total existing debt is over $9 billion.
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The MarketWatch sources said the bankruptcy decision was made after this week Chesapeake missed a bond payment of $10 million due Monday. The missed deadline was the beginning a grace period for negotiations with bondholders, but the company has decided to file for Chapter 11 protection instead, in the coming weeks or even days, the sources told MarketWatch.
If the bankruptcy filing materializes, it would make Chesapeake the largest shale player to date to go under in the current crisis. But this is not the first time the company has had dramatic troubles. During the last crisis, between 2014 and 2016, Chesapeake risked bankruptcy, but managed to avoid court proceedings through a series of out-of-court debt exchanges, according to MarketWatch.
This time things are different, and debt exchanges may not be enough to save the company. Chesapeake reported a net loss of $8 billion for the first quarter, up from a net loss of $21 million a year earlier. Its stock and bond prices were pummeled to the ground by the oil price war and the pandemic like the stocks and bonds of so many others but, as many warned, those with the largest debt burdens would be the first to go.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-16--Meet The Company Who Created More Than 500 Police Snitching Apps

The company responsible for creating a network of police snitching apps in the U.S. and Canada is trying to convince the public to use a new app .
Want to report your neighbor for not social distancing , report them for being a George Floyd protester , or perhaps you have seen something suspicious ?
Chances are pretty good that OCV , LLC has created that app .
As The Daily Globe explains , OCV ’ s latest app allows users to “ lookup jail inmates and wanted lists , as well as submit anonymous tips about crime.
” In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s department has already received a tip from a concerned citizen .
Because who doesn ’ t want to send police an anonymous tip about their neighbors ?
OCV ’ s “ TheSheriffApp.com ” is particularly good at masking its real purpose .
Want to help re-brand law enforcement ’ s image ?
OCV has at least 500 apps that will help convince the public that law enforcement is here to help .
OCV is so good at masking what TheSheriff App ’ s real purpose is , it is easy to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allow users to send anonymous tips to law enforcement .
The first thing they mention in their “ Common Features ” section is submitting a tip .
TheSherrifApp has taken public snitching to a whole new level by combining real-time social media accounts .
Would anyone like to guess what the “ Main Feature ” of TheSheriffApp is ?
If you guessed public snitching , congratulations .
“ Submit a tip with a tap by using our tip submission feature !
Users can easily submit tips directly from their smartphone .
Take advantage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ smartphone to be as detailed as possible with your submission : upload pictures , videos… even include the GPS location of an incident !
Users also have the option to submit a tip anonymously.
” During the coronavirus outbreak , the news has been littered with stories of neighbors snitching on each other .
Private companies like , NextDoor have even gone so far as to shower law enforcement with gifts so they can spread public snitching to every neighborhood in America .
“ As part of the chosen group , Charles Husted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Arizona would be flown to San Francisco on President ’ s Day , along with seven other community engagement staffers from police departments and city offices across the country .
Over two days , they ’ d meet at Nextdoor ’ s headquarters to discuss the social network ’ s public agency strategy .
Together , the plan was , they ’ d stay at the Hilton Union Square , eat and drink at Cultivar , share a tour of Chinatown , and receive matching Uniqlo jackets .
All costs — a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to a schedule sent to participants — were covered by Nextdoor.
” Hasn ’ t law enforcement learned anything about the recent slew of “ Karen ’ s ” calling police on black people ?
The last thing American ’ s need or want is a “ Karen ” police app disguised as “ TheSherrifApp.
” If there is to be any hope of police reform , then we must demand an end to the culture of police surveillance , and the corporations who profit from it .

by mapi
The company responsible for creating a network of police snitching apps in the U.S. and Canada is trying to convince the public to use a new app.
Want to report your neighbor for not social distancing, report them for being a George Floyd protester, or perhaps you have seen something suspicious? Chances are pretty good that OCV, LLC has created that app.
OCV has created a mind-boggling 500 law enforcement apps.
“With over nine years of experience serving public safety agencies, OCV, LLC. has developed over 500 custom mobile apps and proudly serves over 40 states and Canada.”
As The Daily Globe explains, OCV’s latest app allows users to “lookup jail inmates and wanted lists, as well as submit anonymous tips about crime.”
In Rock County, Minnesota, the Sheriff’s department has already received a tip from a concerned citizen. Because who doesn’t want to send police an anonymous tip about their neighbors?
OCV’s “TheSheriffApp.com” is particularly good at masking its real purpose.
“TheSheriffApp.com will help your office brand itself as innovative leaders in law enforcement within your community and provide easy access to important information to your citizens.”
Want to help re-brand law enforcement’s image? OCV has at least 500 apps that will help convince the public that law enforcement is here to help.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
OCV is so good at masking what TheSheriff App’s real purpose is, it is easy to miss.
“App users have the ability to receive instant push notifications from your sheriff’s office, submit a tip, view the most wanted page, see a map of sex offenders in their area and more – all from an app!”
TheSherrifApp is specifically designed to allow users to send anonymous tips to law enforcement. The first thing they mention in their “Common Features” section is submitting a tip.
“Submit tips right from your smartphone. Use your smartphone capabilities to include pictures, GPS location and more in your tip.”
TheSherrifApp has taken public snitching to a whole new level by combining real-time social media accounts.
“Combine all social media accounts into one continuous stream within the app. Updated in real time.”
Would anyone like to guess what the “Main Feature” of TheSheriffApp is? If you guessed public snitching, congratulations.
“Submit a tip with a tap by using our tip submission feature! Users can easily submit tips directly from their smartphone. Take advantage of a mobile app and use your smartphone to be as detailed as possible with your submission: upload pictures, videos… even include the GPS location of an incident! Users also have the option to submit a tip anonymously.”
During the coronavirus outbreak, the news has been littered with stories of neighbors snitching on each other. Private companies like, NextDoor have even gone so far as to shower law enforcement with gifts so they can spread public snitching to every neighborhood in America.
“As part of the chosen group, Charles Husted, the chief of police in Sedona, Arizona would be flown to San Francisco on President’s Day, along with seven other community engagement staffers from police departments and city offices across the country. Over two days, they’d meet at Nextdoor’s headquarters to discuss the social network’s public agency strategy. Together, the plan was, they’d stay at the Hilton Union Square, eat and drink at Cultivar, share a tour of Chinatown, and receive matching Uniqlo jackets. All costs — a projected $16,900 for the group, according to a schedule sent to participants — were covered by Nextdoor.”
Hasn’t law enforcement learned anything about the recent slew of “Karen’s” calling police on black people? The last thing American’s need or want is a “Karen” police app disguised as “TheSherrifApp.”
If there is to be any hope of police reform, then we must demand an end to the culture of police surveillance, and the corporations who profit from it.