investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Retail Traders & Investors Squeezed To Buy High-Risk Assets (Stocks) Again

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders Yes , we certainly live in interesting times .
This , the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations , as well as current data points , referencing very real ongoing concerns , we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020 .
If you missed the first two segments of this research article , please take a moment to review them before continuing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we published this research article related to our super-cycle research .
It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments of this research post .
Within that article , we quoted Ray Dalio from a recent article published related to his cycle research .
That rather chilling statement suggests one thing that we all need to be aware of at this time : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will likely present and how the world will navigate through this process of a cycle transition .
Before you continue , be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals before closing this page , so you don ’ t miss our next special report !
In our opinion , the massive cycle event that is taking place may not disrupt world order as Mr. Dalio suggests .
There is a very strong likelihood that credit/debt processes may become the “ collateral damage ” of this cycle transition , but not much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ powerful nations across the globe are keenly aware that starting WWIII because of a credit/debt crisis is not in anyone ’ s interest .
The world has enough capability to address these concerns without blowing the planet to pieces in the process .
Our super-cycle research suggests we have entered a period that is very similar to 1919~1920 – a “ roaring good time ” most likely has already extended beyond reasonable levels .
Our research suggests a massive peak in cycle events near 2023~24 after an already substantial support cycle from 2007~08 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , roughly 17 years , is very likely to be a blend of the Unraveling & Crisis phases of the super-cycle .
We believe the broader Crisis phase will continue to transition throughout a span of time lasting well into 2031~2034 .
This suggests we may have another 11 to 15+ years of a massive unwinding cycle throughout the globe .
Our research team believes the COVID-19 virus event sent these super-cycles into Warp-Speed recently .
The US stock market was poised to rally early in 2020 and may have experienced a multi-year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 disruption that took place in Mid-February .
The destruction of the economy related to the COVID-19 shutdown is still playing out .
Recent news suggests 41 % of businesses that closed on Yelp have shut down permanently .
Now , consider that this means for consumers and local governments related to earning and revenue capabilities ?
Workers have been fired and have completely lost earnings capabilities .
Business owners now face credit/debt issues and possible bankruptcies .
Local governments have lost revenue from taxes , payroll , sales , and fees and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy has shed the “ excess ” within all segments of core economic function .
Within the first two segments of this article , we ’ ve highlighted numerous data points and charts to more clearly illustrate the current global market environment .
We have to consider the reality of what is happening on the ground throughout the world and , in particular , what is happening in the US and most major economies right now .
If 30 to 40 % , or more , of local businesses , are closing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 % of tax revenues for local governments will also vanish .
It also suggests that these displaced workers and business owners will need to find new sources of income/revenue over the next 12+ months .
As much as we would like to think a “ V-shaped ” recovery is highly likely , it ’ s not going to happen is 30 to 50 % of the US economy is suffering at levels being reported currently .
Yes , you could have investors pile into the US stock market because they believe the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ develop a strong recovery in the future , but that will likely happen after the excess has been processed out of the economy through a business/credit contraction phase .
The current stock market valuation levels seem to ignore the fact that consumer and business activity has likely collapsed by a minimum of 25 to 45 % ( or more ) over the past 90+ days – and may not recover to levels anywhere near the early 2020 economic activity levels .
Still , if you listen to the news and watch the data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you would think there has been no disruption in the US economy .
Supposedly , homes are still selling quickly and the market is very robust .
The Case-Shiller 20 city home price index is well above 220 , the highest levels ever reached for this index .
This suggests home prices have risen to levels that are likely 15 % to 30 % higher than the peak levels in 2006-2007 – yet we ’ ve just experienced a massive economic disruption across the globe where 25 % to 45 % ( or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income capability has vanished .
Read between the lines if you must – something doesn ’ t seem to be reporting valid data at the moment .
The Consumer Price Index has recently started falling .
The only times in history where the CPI level has initiated substantial downward trends are throughout major recessionary or contraction economic phases .
It is very likely that the decrease in the CPI level is reflecting a supply glut pricing effect as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown process .
When consumer activity drops dramatically while supply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glut happens .
When this happens , price levels must adjust and address the over-supply of goods and raw materials stacking up in warehouses , containers , and ships .
If the consumers earning and spending capabilities are disrupted long enough , the manufacturing and supply side of the equation can ’ t react fast enough to the immediate decline in demand .
Therefore , the supply glut continues for a period of time as manufacturers attempt to scale-down the production levels to address for proper demand levels .
Obviously , lower demand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels for manufacturers and sales outlets .
This translates into layoffs at the factories , sales outlets , and all levels in between .
The cycle continues like this until an equilibrium is reached between supply and demand .
This translates into lower-earning expectations for much of the US and foreign markets compared to previous expectations .
While the S & P 500 stock price levels have recovered to nearly the early 2020 price levels , it seems rather obvious to us that Q2 earnings data will likely shock the markets with dramatically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some cases these numbers may be disastrous .
When Nike released their Q4 ( May 2020 ) earnings and showed a nearly $ 800 loss because of the early COVID-19 shutdown , this should have presented a very real understanding of how all levels of retail , manufacturing , and consumer services would also likely show a dramatic economic contraction taking place .
Currently , we are watching for news of new US businesses entering the bankruptcy process .
This recent article suggests business bankruptcies are skyrocketing higher – yet are still below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind that we are only 90+ days into this COVID-19 virus event – so this data is still very early reporting .
Still , the numbers are very telling… “ US filings totaled 3,427 on June 24 , according to data from Epiq seen by the Times .
The reading also closes in on the financial-crisis reading of 3,491 companies entering bankruptcy in the first half of 2008 .
“ If you are reading the same data I read from that statement , the difference between the 2008 levels and current levels is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – less than a 2 % difference in total bankruptcies .
The reality of the current market conditions is that we are only 90+ days into this processing of all this new data and attempting to understand what is likely to become a new operating norm for global economies .
In 2008-09 , the unwinding process took place over a full 12 to 16-month process .
The recovery process too much longer – more than 5+ years .
Currently , the unwinding process of the COVID-19 collapse took less than 30 days and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 90 days .
If our research team is correct , the speed at which the current recovery took place is nothing more than a reactionary recovery to a problem that was sudden and full of uncertainty .
The Q2 data will likely solidify the uncertainty and unknowns into very real economic values ( losses ) and may shock the US stock market into a downward price reversion phase .
We believe one of the best hedging tools any skilled technical trader can use right now is Gold and Silver ( Precious Metals ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and followers to maintain a portion of our portfolio in precious metals as a hedge against risk and unknowns throughout most of 2020 and beyond .
If the Q2 data does what we believe it will do , shock the markets , then a moderately violent and volatile downside price move is pending .
Simply put , you can ’ t destroy 25 to 45 % of an active economy and displace millions of workers while sustaining high price valuations – unless you have a bubble-like euphoric investor mentality .
That , ladies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe is happening right now .
The super-cycle event that took place between 1920 and 1929 was nothing more than a euphoric bubble-like event where investors and traders had “ no fear ” .
Everyone was leveraging everything they could to try to jump into the markets because they believed nothing could stop the rally .
Keeping this in mind , you may want to read this recent research post about parabolic bubbles we published on June 23 , 2020 .
When bubbles burst , most commonly done when investors suddenly come to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expectations , the downside price moves can be extremely distressing .
We urge you to properly understand that may happen with Q2 earnings data and new announcements .
We also urge you to understand the COVID-19 virus event may have moved the super-cycles into some type of “ warp-speed ” .
If our research is correct , we could be speeding towards a massive unwinding/crisis cycle phase very similar to 1929~1945 .
Please read all the previous segments of this article and please properly position your portfolio to protect your assets .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future for all of us .
These bigger price moves are not suddenly going to end because of Q2 or Q3 data .
Be patient and stay protected .
Q2 data is almost here and we are about to see some realization of the COVID-19 economic destruction process .
Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities , bonds , or cash , be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new signal for subscribers .
NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research .
It is provided for educational purposes only .
Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed .

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders
Yes, we certainly live in interesting times. This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020. If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.
On May 24th, 2020, we published this research article related to our super-cycle research. It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments of this research post. Within that article, we quoted Ray Dalio from a recent article published related to his cycle research.
“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble.
As prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually, the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle, the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers, there is typically some kind of war. Out of this debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”
That rather chilling statement suggests one thing that we all need to be aware of at this time: what the current and future economic cycles will likely present and how the world will navigate through this process of a cycle transition.
Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!
In our opinion, the massive cycle event that is taking place may not disrupt world order as Mr. Dalio suggests. There is a very strong likelihood that credit/debt processes may become the “collateral damage” of this cycle transition, but not much else changes. The world order and powerful nations across the globe are keenly aware that starting WWIII because of a credit/debt crisis is not in anyone’s interest. The world has enough capability to address these concerns without blowing the planet to pieces in the process.
Our super-cycle research suggests we have entered a period that is very similar to 1919~1920 – a “roaring good time” most likely has already extended beyond reasonable levels. Our research suggests a massive peak in cycle events near 2023~24 after an already substantial support cycle from 2007~08 to 2023~24. This span of time, roughly 17 years, is very likely to be a blend of the Unraveling & Crisis phases of the super-cycle. We believe the broader Crisis phase will continue to transition throughout a span of time lasting well into 2031~2034. This suggests we may have another 11 to 15+ years of a massive unwinding cycle throughout the globe.
SUPER-CYCLE RESEARCHER DATA FROM OUR RESEARCH TEAM
Our research team believes the COVID-19 virus event sent these super-cycles into Warp-Speed recently. The US stock market was poised to rally early in 2020 and may have experienced a multi-year rally had it not been for the COVID-19 disruption that took place in Mid-February. The destruction of the economy related to the COVID-19 shutdown is still playing out. Recent news suggests 41% of businesses that closed on Yelp have shut down permanently. Now, consider that this means for consumers and local governments related to earning and revenue capabilities? Workers have been fired and have completely lost earnings capabilities. Business owners now face credit/debt issues and possible bankruptcies. Local governments have lost revenue from taxes, payroll, sales, and fees and permits. This destructive cycle continues until the economy has shed the “excess” within all segments of core economic function.
MORE DATA & MORE PREDICTIONS
Within the first two segments of this article, we’ve highlighted numerous data points and charts to more clearly illustrate the current global market environment. We have to consider the reality of what is happening on the ground throughout the world and, in particular, what is happening in the US and most major economies right now. If 30 to 40%, or more, of local businesses, are closing permanently, this suggests that 30 to 50% of tax revenues for local governments will also vanish. It also suggests that these displaced workers and business owners will need to find new sources of income/revenue over the next 12+ months.
As much as we would like to think a “V-shaped” recovery is highly likely, it’s not going to happen is 30 to 50% of the US economy is suffering at levels being reported currently. Yes, you could have investors pile into the US stock market because they believe the US economy is the most likely to develop a strong recovery in the future, but that will likely happen after the excess has been processed out of the economy through a business/credit contraction phase. The current stock market valuation levels seem to ignore the fact that consumer and business activity has likely collapsed by a minimum of 25 to 45% (or more) over the past 90+ days – and may not recover to levels anywhere near the early 2020 economic activity levels.
Still, if you listen to the news and watch the data related to the real estate market, you would think there has been no disruption in the US economy. Supposedly, homes are still selling quickly and the market is very robust. The Case-Shiller 20 city home price index is well above 220, the highest levels ever reached for this index. This suggests home prices have risen to levels that are likely 15% to 30% higher than the peak levels in 2006-2007 – yet we’ve just experienced a massive economic disruption across the globe where 25% to 45% (or more) of our economic earning and income capability has vanished. Read between the lines if you must – something doesn’t seem to be reporting valid data at the moment.
The Consumer Price Index has recently started falling. The only times in history where the CPI level has initiated substantial downward trends are throughout major recessionary or contraction economic phases. It is very likely that the decrease in the CPI level is reflecting a supply glut pricing effect as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown process. When consumer activity drops dramatically while supply channels continue as normal, a supply glut happens. When this happens, price levels must adjust and address the over-supply of goods and raw materials stacking up in warehouses, containers, and ships.
If the consumers earning and spending capabilities are disrupted long enough, the manufacturing and supply side of the equation can’t react fast enough to the immediate decline in demand. Therefore, the supply glut continues for a period of time as manufacturers attempt to scale-down the production levels to address for proper demand levels. Obviously, lower demand equates to lower sales volumes and lower-income levels for manufacturers and sales outlets. This translates into layoffs at the factories, sales outlets, and all levels in between. The cycle continues like this until an equilibrium is reached between supply and demand.
This translates into lower-earning expectations for much of the US and foreign markets compared to previous expectations. While the S&P 500 stock price levels have recovered to nearly the early 2020 price levels, it seems rather obvious to us that Q2 earnings data will likely shock the markets with dramatically lower results and forward expectations – in some cases these numbers may be disastrous.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
When Nike released their Q4 (May 2020) earnings and showed a nearly $800 loss because of the early COVID-19 shutdown, this should have presented a very real understanding of how all levels of retail, manufacturing, and consumer services would also likely show a dramatic economic contraction taking place. Currently, we are watching for news of new US businesses entering the bankruptcy process. This recent article suggests business bankruptcies are skyrocketing higher – yet are still below the 2008~09 levels. Please keep in mind that we are only 90+ days into this COVID-19 virus event – so this data is still very early reporting.
Still, the numbers are very telling…
“US filings totaled 3,427 on June 24, according to data from Epiq seen by the Times. The reading also closes in on the financial-crisis reading of 3,491 companies entering bankruptcy in the first half of 2008. “
If you are reading the same data I read from that statement, the difference between the 2008 levels and current levels is only 64 additional bankruptcies in the US – less than a 2% difference in total bankruptcies.
The reality of the current market conditions is that we are only 90+ days into this processing of all this new data and attempting to understand what is likely to become a new operating norm for global economies. In 2008-09, the unwinding process took place over a full 12 to 16-month process. The recovery process too much longer – more than 5+ years. Currently, the unwinding process of the COVID-19 collapse took less than 30 days and the recovery process took a little over 90 days.
If our research team is correct, the speed at which the current recovery took place is nothing more than a reactionary recovery to a problem that was sudden and full of uncertainty. The Q2 data will likely solidify the uncertainty and unknowns into very real economic values (losses) and may shock the US stock market into a downward price reversion phase.
We believe one of the best hedging tools any skilled technical trader can use right now is Gold and Silver (Precious Metals). We continue to urge our friends and followers to maintain a portion of our portfolio in precious metals as a hedge against risk and unknowns throughout most of 2020 and beyond. If the Q2 data does what we believe it will do, shock the markets, then a moderately violent and volatile downside price move is pending. Simply put, you can’t destroy 25 to 45% of an active economy and displace millions of workers while sustaining high price valuations – unless you have a bubble-like euphoric investor mentality. That, ladies and gentlemen, is exactly what we believe is happening right now.
The super-cycle event that took place between 1920 and 1929 was nothing more than a euphoric bubble-like event where investors and traders had “no fear”. Everyone was leveraging everything they could to try to jump into the markets because they believed nothing could stop the rally. Keeping this in mind, you may want to read this recent research post about parabolic bubbles we published on June 23, 2020.
When bubbles burst, most commonly done when investors suddenly come to their senses in terms of real valuation expectations, the downside price moves can be extremely distressing. We urge you to properly understand that may happen with Q2 earnings data and new announcements. We also urge you to understand the COVID-19 virus event may have moved the super-cycles into some type of “warp-speed”. If our research is correct, we could be speeding towards a massive unwinding/crisis cycle phase very similar to 1929~1945.
Please read all the previous segments of this article and please properly position your portfolio to protect your assets. There will be lots of other trades in the future for all of us. These bigger price moves are not suddenly going to end because of Q2 or Q3 data. Be patient and stay protected. Q2 data is almost here and we are about to see some realization of the COVID-19 economic destruction process.
Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Shutdown 2.0 Begins: Ivy League CANCELS ALL FALL SPORTS, U.S. Senator Pressures Others To Follow

In order to have an economic recovery , it seems you have to first open back-up .
Which begs the question : Since the bulk of the Deep State Globalist Presidents come from Ivy League Schools , including the current Deep State Globalist in Patriot ’ s Clothing , Donald Trump ( Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania ) , does it not make sense for the schools of choice for the rich and famous to make the first move ?
And to think , just this morning , in an article about the use of silver in combating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we learn via subtle indication that some places are indeed getting back to business as usual .
Assuming this reporting is accurate ( bold added for emphasis ) : Because back in the Land of the Free , we ’ re shutting things down , again .
The latest being college sports , which , for now , is limited to the Ivy League .
Side note : Did anybody else walk the stands selling sodas or hot dogs at college football games as a kid ?
Ahh , those were good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hill , North Carolina ) , and I distinctly remember making $ 50 – $ 80 in profit per game selling soda as a kid .
Regardless , now that the Ivy League has made its move , the pressure is on for others to follow .
“ There ’ s absolutely nothing different between the Ivy League and any division except for the money , to be very blunt , ” Blumenthal told USA TODAY Sports .
“ It ’ s about the money .
And if the other schools fail to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it will be only because of the money .
And , in fact , it will be another misguided act in a long litany of putting school profits ahead of the people who play for them.
” I ’ ve asked this question before , and I ’ ll ask it again : Which sports will survive in the United States ?
There ’ s a reason why in many parts of the world , it ’ s soccer , soccer , or soccer .
In the United States , is there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the American mainstream ?
And what about the “ lesser ” sports , as in , those that don ’ t bring in the big bucks ?
Fortunately , for the sports aficionados out there , Wrestling has been deemed “ essential ” : Of course , I ’ m using the definition of “ sport ” very generously here .

via Half Dollar:
In order to have an economic recovery, it seems you have to first open back-up.
Not close back down.
Which begs the question: Since the bulk of the Deep State Globalist Presidents come from Ivy League Schools, including the current Deep State Globalist in Patriot’s Clothing, Donald Trump (Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania), does it not make sense for the schools of choice for the corrupt and vile rich and famous to make the first move?
And to think, just this morning, in an article about the use of silver in combating the coronavirus on the Tokyo subway system, we learn via subtle indication that some places are indeed getting back to business as usual.
Assuming this reporting is accurate (bold added for emphasis):
Tokyo’s labyrinthine rail network of about 900 stations and roughly 85 lines has seen passenger numbers approach pre-virus levels since the city’s de facto lockdown was lifted in late May.
Passenger numbers are “approaching pre-virus levels”?
Interesting.
Because back in the Land of the Free, we’re shutting things down, again.
The latest being college sports, which, for now, is limited to the Ivy League.
From The Washington Post:
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The Ivy League on Wednesday became the first Division I conference to suspend all fall sports, including football, leaving open the possibility of moving some seasons to the spring if the coronavirus pandemic is better controlled by then.
“We simply do not believe we can create and maintain an environment for intercollegiate athletic competition that meets our requirements for safety and acceptable levels of risk,” the Ivy League Council of Presidents said in a statement.
“We are entrusted to create and maintain an educational environment that is guided by health and safety considerations. There can be no greater responsibility — and that is the basis for this difficult decision.”
Side note: Did anybody else walk the stands selling sodas or hot dogs at college football games as a kid?
Ahh, those were good times (at Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina), and I distinctly remember making $50 – $80 in profit per game selling soda as a kid.
Regardless, now that the Ivy League has made its move, the pressure is on for others to follow.
From USA Today:
In the wake of the Ivy League announcing Wednesday that fall sports will not be held during the upcoming semester because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., called on other college sports conferences to do the same.
“There’s absolutely nothing different between the Ivy League and any division except for the money, to be very blunt,” Blumenthal told USA TODAY Sports. “It’s about the money. And if the other schools fail to follow the Ivy League’s lead, it will be only because of the money. And, in fact, it will be another misguided act in a long litany of putting school profits ahead of the people who play for them.”
I’ve asked this question before, and I’ll ask it again: Which sports will survive in the United States?
There’s a reason why in many parts of the world, it’s soccer, soccer, or soccer.
In the United States, is there room for football, basketball and baseball in the American mainstream?
And what about the “lesser” sports, as in, those that don’t bring in the big bucks?
Fortunately, for the sports aficionados out there, Wrestling has been deemed “essential”:
Of course, I’m using the definition of “sport” very generously here.
Developing…


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Help the Economy by Going Outside

Help the Economy by Going Outside

COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US .
The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying .
A lower mortality rate helps , but it ’ s still too high .
The sheer number of sick people is straining hospital capacity some places .
Viruses don ’ t care what anyone thinks ; they just spread until something stops them .
The economy can ’ t recover if people fear infection everywhere they go .
We need to balance public health and economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how to reduce risk with fewer economic side effects .
The funny part : This knowledge isn ’ t all coming out of laboratories .
It ’ s the result of unplanned , large-scale experiments on people who didn ’ t even know they were “ test subjects.
” But whatever the source , we ’ d better pay attention .
It offers a way out of this mess .
Following the May 25 killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police , large protests erupted around the country , featuring exactly the kind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with masks .
More virus cases seemed likely .
We know the COVID-19 virus incubates for up to 14 days after exposure .
So if the protests caused significant virus spread , it should be evident by now in Minnesota , where the initial protests occurred .
Minnesota ’ s average daily case count , which had been declining , turned slightly upward in mid-June , about three weeks after the protests began .
These could be infections acquired at those events .
However , Minnesota ’ s case growth was still minor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same period .
Other places with large protests , like New York and Washington , DC , saw flat or declining infections .
That suggests the virus doesn ’ t spread easily outdoors if people take simple precautions , like wearing masks .
Many protestors did and it seemed to help .
But the virus clearly is spreading .
If the protests didn ’ t cause it , what did ?
The governors who let businesses begin reopening in May probably didn ’ t think of it as “ research.
” Nor did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But that ’ s what happened .
State reopening guidelines tried to address what we know : Crowds are hazardous .
Masks and distance are the best solutions .
But that ’ s hard in places like restaurants and bars .
You can ’ t eat or drink through a mask .
So states required those businesses to operate at reduced capacity and maintain separation between parties .
This was supposed to get them back in operation while minimizing infection risk .
That was weeks ago .
Millions of people have now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data doesn ’ t look good .
JPMorgan Chase , a large credit card issuer as well as an investment bank , analyzed spending data for its millions of customers .
It shows the businesses where people used their cards .
It also shows whether the card was physically present or the transaction occurred online .
They found a high correlation between “ card-present ” restaurant spending and higher COVID-19 cases in the same state three weeks later .
More telling , the data showed fewer cases in places with higher grocery store @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meals at home ) .
As we always say , correlation isn ’ t causation .
But this suggests a connection , at least .
Governors like Greg Abbott ( R-TX ) appear to see it .
He recently ordered bars closed and kept restaurants at 50 % capacity .
We will know in a few weeks if it helps .
There ’ s also evidence air conditioning could be a factor , in part because it encourages people in hot climates to stay indoors where the virus thrives .
That seems to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declined in the southern US during moderate spring weather , but are now rising as summer heats up .
It also raises a question for fall , when many schools and colleges plan to resume in-person , indoor classes .
That may not be a good idea .
• Close , extended indoor gatherings without masks look like a problem .
No one thinks this virus will just “ go away.
” Life will be different until we get better treatments and/or a vaccine .
But if these two points are correct , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one , we might be able to resume some outdoor activities ( concerts , sporting events ) with a few modifications .
Parks and beaches could be manageable risks if everyone will cooperate ( which is hard , I know ) .
This would help restore economic activity .
More broadly , spending our time outdoors this summer and fall might reduce the spread enough to make indoor life safer when winter arrives .
It could have other benefits , too , as I described back in 2018 ( see No Shoes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the downside , this is a serious blow to businesses that depend on indoor crowds—not just bars and restaurants but also airlines , casinos , and many retailers .
Plus their employees and suppliers .
Some may be able to adapt , but not most .
They will probably need additional government support to survive .
That will be more feasible if we can stop throwing money in all directions and be more precise about who needs it .
The pandemic is still serious .
That shouldn ’ t stop us from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow .
My partner John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history .
Most investors are unaware of the pressure building right now .
Learn more here .

by Patrick Watson
COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US. The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying.
A lower mortality rate helps, but it’s still too high. The sheer number of sick people is straining hospital capacity some places. Viruses don’t care what anyone thinks; they just spread until something stops them.
The economy can’t recover if people fear infection everywhere they go. We need to balance public health and economic necessity.
Fortunately, scientists are learning how to reduce risk with fewer economic side effects.
The funny part: This knowledge isn’t all coming out of laboratories. It’s the result of unplanned, large-scale experiments on people who didn’t even know they were “test subjects.”
But whatever the source, we’d better pay attention. It offers a way out of this mess.
Photo: AFMC
Outdoor Conditions
Following the May 25 killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police, large protests erupted around the country, featuring exactly the kind of crowds experts had called dangerous even with masks. More virus cases seemed likely.
We know the COVID-19 virus incubates for up to 14 days after exposure. So if the protests caused significant virus spread, it should be evident by now in Minnesota, where the initial protests occurred.
Here’s the data.
Chart:Worldometers.com
Minnesota’s average daily case count, which had been declining, turned slightly upward in mid-June, about three weeks after the protests began. These could be infections acquired at those events.
However, Minnesota’s case growth was still minor compared to Florida and Texas over the same period. Other places with large protests, like New York and Washington, DC, saw flat or declining infections.
That suggests the virus doesn’t spread easily outdoors if people take simple precautions, like wearing masks. Many protestors did and it seemed to help.
But the virus clearly is spreading. If the protests didn’t cause it, what did?
Hazardous Bar Tabs
The governors who let businesses begin reopening in May probably didn’t think of it as “research.” Nor did their citizens want to be guinea pigs. But that’s what happened.
State reopening guidelines tried to address what we know: Crowds are hazardous. Masks and distance are the best solutions. But that’s hard in places like restaurants and bars. You can’t eat or drink through a mask.
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So states required those businesses to operate at reduced capacity and maintain separation between parties. This was supposed to get them back in operation while minimizing infection risk.
That was weeks ago. Millions of people have now eaten in sit-down restaurants, and the data doesn’t look good.
Photo: Twitter
JPMorgan Chase, a large credit card issuer as well as an investment bank, analyzed spending data for its millions of customers. It shows the businesses where people used their cards. It also shows whether the card was physically present or the transaction occurred online.
They found a high correlation between “card-present” restaurant spending and higher COVID-19 cases in the same state three weeks later. More telling, the data showed fewer cases in places with higher grocery store spending (and, presumably, more meals at home).
As we always say, correlation isn’t causation. But this suggests a connection, at least.
Governors like Greg Abbott (R-TX) appear to see it. He recently ordered bars closed and kept restaurants at 50% capacity. We will know in a few weeks if it helps.
There’s also evidence air conditioning could be a factor, in part because it encourages people in hot climates to stay indoors where the virus thrives. That seems to fit the timing, too. Cases declined in the southern US during moderate spring weather, but are now rising as summer heats up.
It also raises a question for fall, when many schools and colleges plan to resume in-person, indoor classes. That may not be a good idea.
Photo: Pikist
Winter Is Coming
Let’s review what these accidental experiments revealed.
Outdoor gatherings, even large ones, don’t necessarily spark virus outbreaks.
Close, extended indoor gatherings without masks look like a problem.
No one thinks this virus will just “go away.” Life will be different until we get better treatments and/or a vaccine. But if these two points are correct, they offer some partial solutions.
For one, we might be able to resume some outdoor activities (concerts, sporting events) with a few modifications. Parks and beaches could be manageable risks if everyone will cooperate (which is hard, I know). This would help restore economic activity.
More broadly, spending our time outdoors this summer and fall might reduce the spread enough to make indoor life safer when winter arrives. It could have other benefits, too, as I described back in 2018 (see No Shoes, No Shirt, More Money).
On the downside, this is a serious blow to businesses that depend on indoor crowds—not just bars and restaurants but also airlines, casinos, and many retailers. Plus their employees and suppliers.
Some may be able to adapt, but not most. They will probably need additional government support to survive. That will be more feasible if we can stop throwing money in all directions and be more precise about who needs it.
The pandemic is still serious. That shouldn’t stop us from doing what we can to cushion the blow.
My partner John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. Most investors are unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Inflation Doesn’t Make the Economy Better—It Makes It Faster… and You Need to Protect Yourself

As the high inflation of the late ‘ 70s and early ‘ 80s fades into the distance , people ’ s memory of it has diminished .
So I ’ ll remind you of what happens : Inflation distorts all economic behavior .
For example : you go to Lowe ’ s to buy fertilizer .
A bag of fertilizer costs $ 8 .
But inflation is running around 10 % .
So you buy 10 bags of fertilizer , use one , and store the other nine in your basement because the price will be higher later .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you need pushes the price higher .
If everyone acts in concert , it pushes the price higher still .
Maybe you become a fertilizer hoarder and sell fertilizer to your neighbors at higher prices .
Inflation speeds up an economy .
It doesn ’ t make an economy better ; it makes it faster .
It seems like everything the government does these days is designed to make the economy faster .
We should instead try to think about ways to make it better .
The attractiveness of Keynesian economic philosophy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the expense of long-term pain .
But nobody cares about the long-term pain , because in the long run , we are all dead—right ?
Future generations will care about the long-term pain .
But we have finally reached the point where we are the future generations .
The old inflation model paid a lot of attention to money supply growth .
Today , we have lots of money supply growth—more money chasing the same amount of goods , theoretically—but no inflation .
I ’ m not smart enough to update Milton Friedman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But our attempts to create inflation could undermine confidence in the dollar .
I ’ m going to attempt to tie the retail stock buying madness into this discussion of inflation .
There was another time in history with lots of inflation and lots of speculation that ultimately resulted in unrest .
That time was 1920 ’ s Germany .
It ’ s not an exact parallel—nothing is—but what we are experiencing has echoes of the Weimar Republic .
So , how do you protect yourself against inflation ?
There are a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is gold—an objective store of value .
Gold isn ’ t precisely correlated with periods of inflation , but it is correlated with loss of confidence in the currency .
The dollar has weakened a bit more in recent weeks , with perhaps a bit more to follow .
Of course , most of the developed world is trying hard to debase their currencies .
So trying to pick which one will go down the most is a pointless game , at least for now .
Gold is a way you can bet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same time .
The second is real estate—real estate can also be an objective store of value .
Real estate in all forms is a hedge on inflation—particularly land , which we currently can not make more of .
You might own a house that is worth $ 800,000 today , but was worth $ 70,000 a few decades ago .
Pretty much all hard assets are a store of value .
Base metals are an acceptable substitute for gold .
Oil has some gearing to inflation .
Just about any commodity does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , commodities have been a horror show for so long that this is a tough sell .
But the fact that commodities have no cash flows makes them an asset , rather than a liability , during periods of inflation .
And finally , stocks are an imperfect hedge against inflation .
I like to call stocks inflation pass-thru vehicles , as companies have the ability to pass along higher prices .
As nominal earnings rise , nominal stock prices will rise .
Stock markets have performed well in countries with episodes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fully keep up with inflation .
Still , it ’ s better than nothing .
COVID-19 is a deflationary shock .
But I have a hard time believing that the fiscal and monetary stimulus that was unleashed as a result of it won ’ t one day cause inflation .
I am one of those people who thinks there will always be inflation .
I thought that in 2008 , like a lot of other people .
I see inflation wherever I go .
That ’ s probably because I am old enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I think we should be vigilant .
The Federal Reserve , which is supposed to be vigilant about inflation and inflation expectations , is actually doing the opposite .
Interestingly enough , a portfolio with the allocations I recommend—20 % stocks , 20 % bonds , 20 % cash , 20 % gold , and 20 % real estate—does pretty well during periods of high inflation .
It has built-in inflation protection , which makes it more appropriate now than at any point in the last 30 years .
Remember—inflation doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trades to work .
All we need is the fear of inflation .
Of course , nobody seems to have any fear of anything right now .
Jared Dillian is an investment strategist at Mauldin Economics , a former head of ETF trading at Lehman Brothers , and the author of The Awesome Portfolio .
Subscribe to his weekly investment newsletter , The 10th Man , and listen to his daily radio program , “ The Jared Dillian Show.
” You can follow Jared on Twitter @ dailydirtnap .

by Jared Dillian
Inflation is very disruptive.
As the high inflation of the late ‘70s and early ‘80s fades into the distance, people’s memory of it has diminished. So I’ll remind you of what happens: Inflation distorts all economic behavior.
For example: you go to Lowe’s to buy fertilizer. A bag of fertilizer costs $8. But inflation is running around 10%. So you buy 10 bags of fertilizer, use one, and store the other nine in your basement because the price will be higher later.
The act of you buying more fertilizer than you need pushes the price higher. If everyone acts in concert, it pushes the price higher still. Maybe you become a fertilizer hoarder and sell fertilizer to your neighbors at higher prices.
Inflation speeds up an economy. It doesn’t make an economy better; it makes it faster.
It seems like everything the government does these days is designed to make the economy faster. We should instead try to think about ways to make it better.
The attractiveness of Keynesian economic philosophy is that you get short-term gain, at the expense of long-term pain. But nobody cares about the long-term pain, because in the long run, we are all dead—right?
Future generations will care about the long-term pain. But we have finally reached the point where we are the future generations.
The old inflation model paid a lot of attention to money supply growth. Today, we have lots of money supply growth—more money chasing the same amount of goods, theoretically—but no inflation.
I’m not smart enough to update Milton Friedman’s quantity theory of money. But our attempts to create inflation could undermine confidence in the dollar.
I’m going to attempt to tie the retail stock buying madness into this discussion of inflation. There was another time in history with lots of inflation and lots of speculation that ultimately resulted in unrest. That time was 1920’s Germany. It’s not an exact parallel—nothing is—but what we are experiencing has echoes of the Weimar Republic.
Inflation Protection
So, how do you protect yourself against inflation? There are a few ways.
The first and most obvious is gold—an objective store of value. Gold isn’t precisely correlated with periods of inflation, but it is correlated with loss of confidence in the currency.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The dollar has weakened a bit more in recent weeks, with perhaps a bit more to follow. Of course, most of the developed world is trying hard to debase their currencies. So trying to pick which one will go down the most is a pointless game, at least for now.
Gold is a way you can bet on them all going down at the same time.
The second is real estate—real estate can also be an objective store of value. Real estate in all forms is a hedge on inflation—particularly land, which we currently cannot make more of. You might own a house that is worth $800,000 today, but was worth $70,000 a few decades ago.
Pretty much all hard assets are a store of value. Base metals are an acceptable substitute for gold. Oil has some gearing to inflation. Just about any commodity does, even agricultural ones.
Of course, commodities have been a horror show for so long that this is a tough sell. But the fact that commodities have no cash flows makes them an asset, rather than a liability, during periods of inflation.
And finally, stocks are an imperfect hedge against inflation. I like to call stocks inflation pass-thru vehicles, as companies have the ability to pass along higher prices. As nominal earnings rise, nominal stock prices will rise.
Stock markets have performed well in countries with episodes of high inflation or hyperinflation—but ultimately did not fully keep up with inflation. Still, it’s better than nothing.
Stay Vigilant
COVID-19 is a deflationary shock. But I have a hard time believing that the fiscal and monetary stimulus that was unleashed as a result of it won’t one day cause inflation.
I am one of those people who thinks there will always be inflation. I thought that in 2008, like a lot of other people. I see inflation wherever I go.
That’s probably because I am old enough to have some memory of it, and I think we should be vigilant. The Federal Reserve, which is supposed to be vigilant about inflation and inflation expectations, is actually doing the opposite.
Interestingly enough, a portfolio with the allocations I recommend—20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash, 20% gold, and 20% real estate—does pretty well during periods of high inflation. It has built-in inflation protection, which makes it more appropriate now than at any point in the last 30 years.
Remember—inflation doesn’t actually have to happen for inflation trades to work. All we need is the fear of inflation. Of course, nobody seems to have any fear of anything right now.
Jared Dillian is an investment strategist at Mauldin Economics, a former head of ETF trading at Lehman Brothers, and the author of The Awesome Portfolio. Subscribe to his weekly investment newsletter, The 10th Man, and listen to his daily radio program, “The Jared Dillian Show.” You can follow Jared on Twitter @dailydirtnap.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Travel Virus Strikes Economy

Travel Virus Strikes Economy

We ’ ve escaped the frying pan and found the fire .
COVID-19 cases are now growing faster than they were when the first US lockdowns occurred last March .
I live near Austin , Texas , one of the hotspots where hospitals are filling fast .
The governor has paused his reopening plan .
It seems likely much of the state will shut down again , whether he orders it or not .
Businesses can ’ t stay open if customers stay home , or workers get sick .
Nationally , it took four to six weeks for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We are in for a rough summer if the milder measures now being taken show a similar lag .
And economically , hopes for a quick recovery ( which were always dim , in my view ) are likely gone .
All this was predictable and preventable .
Viruses reproduce as long as they can find new hosts .
They don ’ t care who it is .
They stop only when something deprives them of opportunity .
Yet here we are .
We will get through this , but the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ side .
When staying close to home becomes a matter of life or death , someone has to pay the price .
The pandemic ’ s economic impact doesn ’ t fall equally .
Some industries feel it more because the conditions that spread the virus ( crowds and confined spaces ) are integral to their business models .
For instance , crowds are hard to escape when you travel .
Consider airlines .
Even if you ’ re fortunate enough to fly first class , simply being on a plane puts you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ periods .
Not to mention the whole process of getting to the airport , through security , and to your gate .
Every person you are near is a potential virus carrier , and the virus is potentially deadly , particularly to older people and those with certain health conditions .
To stay in business , airlines must : • Make people believe the environment is safe .
Both are important .
It ’ s not enough that the airports and planes are safe .
Travelers must feel safe .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and see this… The MAGA-hatted person using a mask as a blindfold may be owning the libs , but he ’ s also hurting the economy .
He is telling everyone , “ You should stay home because people like me make travelling dangerous.
” This is an unsolvable problem .
Airlines can require masks , and most do , but how are they supposed to enforce it ?
Have the police drag people out of their seats ?
Land the plane every time someone decides to unmask during a flight ?
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is it possible for everyone else on the plane to escape the perceived threat .
Buying a plane ticket means you could be trapped next to a reckless person .
Airlines can ’ t control this risk , and it is both inevitable and unacceptable to many consumers .
That means fewer people want to fly , which makes the hotels , restaurants , and other businesses they would have visited lose revenue .
The pandemic has also decimated the once-vaunted “ sharing economy.
” Staying in a stranger ’ s home is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do now .
This is a problem for the vacation rental business .
Airbnb co-founder and CEO Brian Chesky told Axios that global travel may never fully recover from this .
I will go on the record to say that travel will never , ever go back to the way it was pre-COVID ; it just won ’ t…There are sometimes months when decades of transformation happen .
People are not getting on airplanes , they ’ re not crossing borders , they ’ re not meaningfully traveling to cities , they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t think people will stop travelling , but how they travel will change .
He believes “ mass tourism ” to well-known landmarks will become less popular .
People will still go on vacation , but they ’ ll disperse to less-crowded places , closer to home .
He also thinks business and convention travel will keep hurting .
These stay-home months taught us how to have meetings and conduct business remotely .
That genie isn ’ t going back in the bottle .
This will affect airlines that depend on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hotels , high-end restaurants , and other related services .
But it doesn ’ t end there .
Most business travel isn ’ t “ travel ” at all , but commuting .
People wake up in their own homes , go to an office for work , then come back home at night .
Companies need less office space when most of their people work from home , as they have been recently .
And in many cases , it ’ s looking like a permanent change .
Bad news for commercial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top of the many retail stores and restaurants that have either closed , or are unable to pay anything like the rent they once did .
Real estate is a highly leveraged industry .
When landlords suffer , lenders suffer , too .
And the loans are often bonds held by banks , mutual funds , and pension plans .
Like a virus , a credit crisis can grow exponentially .
You may think this isn ’ t your problem .
I suggest you think again .
The Great Reset : The Collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York Times best-seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could trigger in the next five years .
Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that ’ s building right now .
Learn more here .

by Patrick Watson
We’ve escaped the frying pan and found the fire. COVID-19 cases are now growing faster than they were when the first US lockdowns occurred last March.
I live near Austin, Texas, one of the hotspots where hospitals are filling fast. The governor has paused his reopening plan. It seems likely much of the state will shut down again, whether he orders it or not. Businesses can’t stay open if customers stay home, or workers get sick.
Nationally, it took four to six weeks for the first shutdowns just to begin reducing infections. We are in for a rough summer if the milder measures now being taken show a similar lag. And economically, hopes for a quick recovery (which were always dim, in my view) are likely gone.
All this was predictable and preventable. Viruses reproduce as long as they can find new hosts. They don’t care who it is. They stop only when something deprives them of opportunity.
Yet here we are. We will get through this, but the economy will be far different on the other side.
When staying close to home becomes a matter of life or death, someone has to pay the price.
Photo: Pixabay
Trapped on a Plane
The pandemic’s economic impact doesn’t fall equally. Some industries feel it more because the conditions that spread the virus (crowds and confined spaces) are integral to their business models.
For instance, crowds are hard to escape when you travel.
Consider airlines. Even if you’re fortunate enough to fly first class, simply being on a plane puts you dangerously close to other people for extended periods. Not to mention the whole process of getting to the airport, through security, and to your gate.
Every person you are near is a potential virus carrier, and the virus is potentially deadly, particularly to older people and those with certain health conditions.
To stay in business, airlines must:
Maintain a reasonably safe environment and
Make people believe the environment is safe.
Both are important. It’s not enough that the airports and planes are safe. Travelers must feel safe. That’s hard when you look across the aisle and see this…
Photo: Ian Bremmer
The MAGA-hatted person using a mask as a blindfold may be owning the libs, but he’s also hurting the economy. He is telling everyone, “You should stay home because people like me make travelling dangerous.”
This is an unsolvable problem.
Airlines can require masks, and most do, but how are they supposed to enforce it? Have the police drag people out of their seats? Land the plane every time someone decides to unmask during a flight? That’s just not possible. Nor is it possible for everyone else on the plane to escape the perceived threat.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Buying a plane ticket means you could be trapped next to a reckless person. Airlines can’t control this risk, and it is both inevitable and unacceptable to many consumers.
That means fewer people want to fly, which makes the hotels, restaurants, and other businesses they would have visited lose revenue.
No Going Back
The pandemic has also decimated the once-vaunted “sharing economy.” Staying in a stranger’s home is the last thing most people want to do now. This is a problem for the vacation rental business.
Airbnb co-founder and CEO Brian Chesky told Axios that global travel may never fully recover from this.
I will go on the record to say that travel will never, ever go back to the way it was pre-COVID; it just won’t…There are sometimes months when decades of transformation happen.
People are not getting on airplanes, they’re not crossing borders, they’re not meaningfully traveling to cities, they’re not traveling for business.
Chesky doesn’t think people will stop travelling, but how they travel will change. He believes “mass tourism” to well-known landmarks will become less popular. People will still go on vacation, but they’ll disperse to less-crowded places, closer to home.
He also thinks business and convention travel will keep hurting. These stay-home months taught us how to have meetings and conduct business remotely. That genie isn’t going back in the bottle.
This will affect airlines that depend on business travel, along with the luxury hotels, high-end restaurants, and other related services.
But it doesn’t end there.
Photo: Flickr
Viral Debt
Most business travel isn’t “travel” at all, but commuting. People wake up in their own homes, go to an office for work, then come back home at night.
Companies need less office space when most of their people work from home, as they have been recently. And in many cases, it’s looking like a permanent change. Bad news for commercial real estate.
That’s on top of the many retail stores and restaurants that have either closed, or are unable to pay anything like the rent they once did.
Real estate is a highly leveraged industry. When landlords suffer, lenders suffer, too. And the loans are often bonds held by banks, mutual funds, and pension plans.
Like a virus, a credit crisis can grow exponentially. You may think this isn’t your problem. I suggest you think again.
The Great Reset: The Collapse of the Biggest Bubble in History
New York Times best-seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could trigger in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Exhausted cities face another challenge: a surge in violence.

NEW YORK ( AP ) — Still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic and street protests over the police killing of George Floyd , exhausted cities around the nation are facing yet another challenge : a surge in shootings that has left dozens dead , including young children .
The spike defies easy explanation , experts say , pointing to the toxic mix of issues facing America in 2020 : an unemployment rate not seen in a generation , a pandemic that has killed more than 130,000 people , stay-at-home orders , rising anger over police brutality , intense stress , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ City Proves You Don ’ t Have to Defund the Police , You Can Just Demoralize Them .
● Work begins on massive Black Lives Matter mural outside Trump Tower .
“ A stretch of Fifth Avenue between East 56th and 57th streets was closed to traffic as city Department of Transportation workers began measuring and stenciling the giant yellow letters onto the pavement with spray paint and tape just after 8 a.m .
The Mayor Bill de Blasio-sanctioned mural will then be painted by local artists starting at 11 a.m. , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worker from Staten Island who would only give his first name , Kevin , ripped the mural as ‘ legalized graffiti by de Blasio.
’ ‘ American lives matter , ’ the 63-year-old said .
‘ It ’ s a shame .
This is my taxes .
I pay $ 200 to $ 400 a week in taxes for this ?
It ’ s legalized graffiti and a lot of politics.
’ ‘ It ’ s an insult to our president , ’ Kevin added .
”

via apnews:
NEW YORK (AP) — Still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic and street protests over the police killing of George Floyd, exhausted cities around the nation are facing yet another challenge: a surge in shootings that has left dozens dead, including young children. The spike defies easy explanation, experts say, pointing to the toxic mix of issues facing America in 2020: an unemployment rate not seen in a generation, a pandemic that has killed more than 130,000 people, stay-at-home orders, rising anger over police brutality, intense stress, even the weather.
Related:
● NYPD limits retirement applications amid 400 percent surge this week.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
● New York City Proves You Don’t Have to Defund the Police, You Can Just Demoralize Them.
● Work begins on massive Black Lives Matter mural outside Trump Tower. “A stretch of Fifth Avenue between East 56th and 57th streets was closed to traffic as city Department of Transportation workers began measuring and stenciling the giant yellow letters onto the pavement with spray paint and tape just after 8 a.m. The Mayor Bill de Blasio-sanctioned mural will then be painted by local artists starting at 11 a.m., with Hizzoner expected to show up later….A maintenance worker from Staten Island who would only give his first name, Kevin, ripped the mural as ‘legalized graffiti by de Blasio.’ ‘American lives matter,’ the 63-year-old said. ‘It’s a shame. This is my taxes. I pay $200 to $400 a week in taxes for this? It’s legalized graffiti and a lot of politics.’ ‘It’s an insult to our president,’ Kevin added.”
h/t ED


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Texas’ Lt.Gov Dan Patrick Says BLM Is A Communist Organization taking over the education system to i

Texas’ Lt.Gov Dan Patrick Says BLM Is A Communist Organization taking over the education system to indoctrinate kids and turn them against their parents

Tucker Carlson rips the mask off the Democrat party : He ’ s gone full constitutional warrior , tackling the Democrat ’ s cynicism , and calling out the dual leftist practices of violence and censorship .
Every day , Carlson is better than the day before CLOWN WORLD : Study Finds 92 % Of Leftist Are Actually Basement Dwelling Adult Children A Study Found 92 % of Left-Wing Activists Still Live with Parents , and It ’ s Not Likely to Get Better They ’ re marching down the street wearing black , their faces obscured by red bandanas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They ’ re intimidating as they create a mob and chase after you , calling you a fascist and a Nazi because you don ’ t share their extreme ideology .
They ’ re marching down the street bashing in car windows and vandalizing storefronts .
They ’ re going to do all it takes to stop fascism and hate speech .
But they have to hurry this along because they have to be home before 10:30 , or else their mom will be totally pissed off .
This is a likely story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is not a new story .
In fact , the Daily Mail published these findings back in 2017 which showed that 92 percent of leftist activists who were arrested in Berlin still live with their parents , and what ’ s more , a third are completely unemployed : “ The figures , which were published in daily newspaper Bild revealed that 873 suspects were investigated by authorities between 2003 and 2013 .
Of these 84 per cent were men , and 72 per cent were aged between 18 and 29 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ made in the Berlin districts of Friedrichshain , Kreuzberg and Mitte , mostly during demonstrations .
A third of them were unemployed , and 92 per cent still live with their parents .
”

Tucker Carlson rips the mask off the Democrat party: He’s gone full constitutional warrior, tackling the Democrat’s cynicism, and calling out the dual leftist practices of violence and censorship. Every day, Carlson is better than the day before
CLOWN WORLD: Study Finds 92% Of Leftist Are Actually Basement Dwelling Adult Children
A Study Found 92% of Left-Wing Activists Still Live with Parents, and It’s Not Likely to Get Better
They’re marching down the street wearing black, their faces obscured by red bandanas or possibly a Guy Fawkes mask. They’re intimidating as they create a mob and chase after you, calling you a fascist and a Nazi because you don’t share their extreme ideology. They’re marching down the street bashing in car windows and vandalizing storefronts. They’re going to do all it takes to stop fascism and hate speech.
But they have to hurry this along because they have to be home before 10:30, or else their mom will be totally pissed off.
This is a likely story according to a Berlin study, but this is not a new story. In fact, the Daily Mail published these findings back in 2017 which showed that 92 percent of leftist activists who were arrested in Berlin still live with their parents, and what’s more, a third are completely unemployed:
“The figures, which were published in daily newspaper Bild revealed that 873 suspects were investigated by authorities between 2003 and 2013.
Of these 84 per cent were men, and 72 per cent were aged between 18 and 29.
More than half of the arrests were made in the Berlin districts of Friedrichshain, Kreuzberg and Mitte, mostly during demonstrations.
A third of them were unemployed, and 92 per cent still live with their parents.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Ummm…. He has zero clue what he’s saying.

He has zero clue what he ’ s saying.pic.twitter.com/xbgIpjyIvb

Ummm…. 👀
He has zero clue what he’s saying.pic.twitter.com/xbgIpjyIvb
— Jenna Ellis (@JennaEllisEsq) July 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Demand Crash Led To Biggest Monthly Surge in US Oil Inventories Since 1920

The oil demand crash in April , when most of America was under stay-at-home orders , resulted in the biggest monthly inventory jump in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories in data going back to 1920 , the U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) said on Thursday .
In April , U.S. commercial crude stocks soared by 46.7 million barrels , or by 10 percent , as demand for refined petroleum products slumped to the lowest level in nearly 40 years , according to EIA estimates .
Refinery utilization rate was at 70 percent in April—the lowest utilization rate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Demand for finished petroleum products crashed to 11.7 million barrels per day ( bpd ) – the lowest level since at least 1981 , the EIA said .
U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 million bpd in April , down by 669,000 bpd , or 5 percent , from March .
Demand for oil in the United States continued to be weak after April , too , leading to a record-high level of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories by the middle of June .
The United States held a record-high level of commercial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to June 19 following the collapse in demand in the lockdown and the slow demand recovery after lockdowns were lifted , the EIA said at the end of last month .
At nearly 541 million barrels of crude oil inventories for the week to June 19 , the U.S. beat by 5 million barrels its previous record for the highest volume of commercial inventories from late March 2017 , EIA data showed .
In the latest reporting week , the EIA said that crude oil inventories in the United States swelled by 5.7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 , but gasoline inventories drew down .
At 539.2 million barrels at the end of last week , U.S. crude oil inventories were about 18 percent above the five-year average for this time of year .
Gasoline inventories , however , shrunk by a sizable 4.8 million barrels last week , after a weekly build of 1.2 million barrels for the week to June 26 , suggesting that demand for gasoline is continuing to recover , although inventories are still above the five-year average .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
The oil demand crash in April, when most of America was under stay-at-home orders, resulted in the biggest monthly inventory jump in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories in data going back to 1920, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday.
In April, U.S. commercial crude stocks soared by 46.7 million barrels, or by 10 percent, as demand for refined petroleum products slumped to the lowest level in nearly 40 years, according to EIA estimates.
Refinery utilization rate was at 70 percent in April—the lowest utilization rate in monthly data dating back to 1985.
Demand for finished petroleum products crashed to 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) – the lowest level since at least 1981, the EIA said.
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U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 million bpd in April, down by 669,000 bpd, or 5 percent, from March.
Demand for oil in the United States continued to be weak after April, too, leading to a record-high level of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories by the middle of June.
The United States held a record-high level of commercial crude oil stocks as of the week to June 19 following the collapse in demand in the lockdown and the slow demand recovery after lockdowns were lifted, the EIA said at the end of last month. At nearly 541 million barrels of crude oil inventories for the week to June 19, the U.S. beat by 5 million barrels its previous record for the highest volume of commercial inventories from late March 2017, EIA data showed.
In the latest reporting week, the EIA said that crude oil inventories in the United States swelled by 5.7 million barrels in the week to July 3, but gasoline inventories drew down. At 539.2 million barrels at the end of last week, U.S. crude oil inventories were about 18 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories, however, shrunk by a sizable 4.8 million barrels last week, after a weekly build of 1.2 million barrels for the week to June 26, suggesting that demand for gasoline is continuing to recover, although inventories are still above the five-year average.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Has the Dollar Peaked with Eric Hadik

Has the Dollar Peaked with Eric Hadik

Eric Hadik returns… It appears that the US Dollar has peaked .
Metals prices will be going up , especially @ @ @ @ @ go to multi-year lows but Eric believed that after the second quarter of 2020 , @ @ @ @ @ and would advance rapidly .
This trend will continue through at least the second quarter @ @ @ @ @ parallels to 1980 ( 40 year cycle ) and 2018 .
Eric called February the @ @ @ @ @ , as have other FSN guests .
The market could see a bigger selling period @ @ @ @ @ 2022 .
Late July or early August we could see another rally in the market @ @ @ @ @ , interest rates and the economy .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Financial Survival Network
Eric Hadik returns… It appears that the US Dollar has peaked. Metals prices will be going up, especially silver. We saw silver go to multi-year lows but Eric believed that after the second quarter of 2020, silver would become the leader and would advance rapidly. This trend will continue through at least the second quarter of 2021. Lots of parallels to 1980 (40 year cycle) and 2018. Eric called February the mother of all sell signals, as have other FSN guests. The market could see a bigger selling period between Q2 2021 and Q3 2022. Late July or early August we could see another rally in the market. Lots here about oil, interest rates and the economy.
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Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--So This Is Another Damn Thing We’re Supposed To Worry About Now?

Should you stop using the word ‘ marijuana ’ ?
Here ’ s a question to ponder this morning : @ @ @ @ @ “ cannabis ” or “ marijuana ” when referring to the psychoactive plant ?
That @ @ @ @ @ question for a Wednesday morning , we know .
But it was sparked by a @ @ @ @ @ office this morning , and we figured it might be interesting to get your take @ @ @ @ @ since the way we use language is under the spotlight right now .
Confession time @ @ @ @ @ by yours truly .
I find it hard not to be pedantic , and since @ @ @ @ @ plants that people smoke ( or vape , or eat ) are cannabis sativa and @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s what we should use when we write about the topic at Ars @ @ @ @ @ ” is also specific to North America , and while our audience is predominantly North @ @ @ @ @ not exclusively so .

Should you stop using the word ‘marijuana’?
Here’s a question to ponder this morning: should people use the word “cannabis” or “marijuana” when referring to the psychoactive plant? That sounds like a pretty left-field question for a Wednesday morning, we know. But it was sparked by a lengthy discussion in the Ars office this morning, and we figured it might be interesting to get your take on the issue, particularly since the way we use language is under the spotlight right now.
Confession time: the debate was initiated by yours truly. I find it hard not to be pedantic, and since the actual names of the plants that people smoke (or vape, or eat) are cannabis sativa and cannabis indica, I think that’s what we should use when we write about the topic at Ars. The word “marijuana” is also specific to North America, and while our audience is predominantly North American, it’s not exclusively so.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--WOW! Long-Time Dem Makes Shocking Admission That Will EMBARRASS Every Liberal America

David Krayden from The Daily Caller reports , Civil rights attorney Leo Terrell pounded the Democratic National Committee ( DNC @ @ @ @ @ “ race card ” with Mount Rushmore and equating the iconic monument to “ white @ @ @

David Krayden from The Daily Caller reports, Civil rights attorney Leo Terrell pounded the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Friday for playing the “race card” with Mount Rushmore and equating the iconic monument to “white supremacy.”
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
dailycaller.com/2020/07/04/leo-terrell-embarrassed-democrat-dnc-race-card-mount-rushmore-white-supremacy/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Warning: The Current Economic Meltdown Will Trigger The Biggest Housing Market Crash In History

For many years , in the United States a house was a necessity for every family ; it was a need but in recent decades , the elites have turned houses into speculative assets .
Because of this , it is now possible for people to bet on houses just like the stock market and this is what is marking the prices of houses very unstable .
This speculation is what caused the 2008 global economic collapse because greed had caused many financial institutions to take excessive risks .
The same trend we had one decade ago is now repeating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the housing market is creating a bubble and at the moment the cost of buying a house is too high .
Buying a home right now means setting oneself for a disaster ; it is like buying a home in 2006 when the housing bubble was about to burst .
At the moment we have another housing bubble and very soon it will burst .
This means that buying a house right now is a bad idea but millions of Americans are still taking mortgages despite the current economic meltdown because of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into a trap and it is just a matter of time before everyone finds themselves right in the middle of a historic collapse of the housing markets .
At the moment everything looks normal in the housing market even if the real economy is tanking and millions of people have already lost their jobs .
Everything has been kept afloat by the Federal Reserve because they have been pumping trillions of dollars into the economy and this has kept the economy afloat so far .
However , this free money can not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon the government will stop issuing the stimulus packages and this will be the point where the real economy will play out .
What we have now is just a system that has been artificially kept afloat and when the reality finally catches up with us , many will be up for a big surprise .
If you look at what is happening right now in the housing market , it is very clear that things are not normal .
The average price of a house in the United States is beyond the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The prices of houses have been increasing at a higher rate than the increase in average incomes .
This is largely due to the increased speculation in the housing market by the investors who have turned houses to speculative assets .
As a result , the housing market is imbalanced and at in the coming months experts are warning that we will have a major housing market crash .
The idea of owning a house has turned out to be a myth because people with average incomes can no longer afford to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have overpriced homes and this is the reason why many Americans still can not afford to buy a house and instead they prefer to rent .
At the moment we have a very big imbalance between the state of the real economy and the pricing level in the housing market .
We are in the verge of the housing market collapse and with the current economic downturn , anything can trigger the beginning of the market crash .
Maybe the auto loan default or credit card debt default is what will trigger a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we always have a domino effect in the economy and this means that if one section of the economy is not doing well , then other economic sectors are also affected .
At the moment , the housing market is the most vulnerable market in the US economy and right now , any imbalance in the economy will be more than enough to trigger a housing market crisis .
With a lot happening in the economy , it is very clear that the collapse of the housing market is inevitable ; it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continuously pumping money , asset prices will continue increasing but the catch is that this will not happen for long .
The real economy is tanking , people are losing their incomes and debt levels are continuously going up .
This will be finally reflected in the housing market and it will not end well .
Wages can not catch up with the rising asset prices and what we have now is the housing bubble 2.0 .
Very soon this bubble will burst and once again millions of average Americans will lose their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see a drop in the value of houses they bought for hundreds of thousands of dollars .
As the economy recovers from the outbreak , the housing bubble will burst and this will further negatively affect millions of Americans .
We are at a tipping point and at this point a housing market crash is inevitable .

For many years, in the United States a house was a necessity for every family; it was a need but in recent decades, the elites have turned houses into speculative assets. Because of this, it is now possible for people to bet on houses just like the stock market and this is what is marking the prices of houses very unstable. This speculation is what caused the 2008 global economic collapse because greed had caused many financial institutions to take excessive risks. The same trend we had one decade ago is now repeating itself. Increased pumping of cash into the housing market is creating a bubble and at the moment the cost of buying a house is too high. Buying a home right now means setting oneself for a disaster; it is like buying a home in 2006 when the housing bubble was about to burst. At the moment we have another housing bubble and very soon it will burst. This means that buying a house right now is a bad idea but millions of Americans are still taking mortgages despite the current economic meltdown because of the outbreak. Many people are unknowingly walking into a trap and it is just a matter of time before everyone finds themselves right in the middle of a historic collapse of the housing markets.
At the moment everything looks normal in the housing market even if the real economy is tanking and millions of people have already lost their jobs. Everything has been kept afloat by the Federal Reserve because they have been pumping trillions of dollars into the economy and this has kept the economy afloat so far. However, this free money cannot be pumped into the system forever; very soon the government will stop issuing the stimulus packages and this will be the point where the real economy will play out. What we have now is just a system that has been artificially kept afloat and when the reality finally catches up with us, many will be up for a big surprise.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you look at what is happening right now in the housing market, it is very clear that things are not normal. The average price of a house in the United States is beyond the range in which average Americans can afford. The prices of houses have been increasing at a higher rate than the increase in average incomes. This is largely due to the increased speculation in the housing market by the investors who have turned houses to speculative assets. As a result, the housing market is imbalanced and at in the coming months experts are warning that we will have a major housing market crash. The idea of owning a house has turned out to be a myth because people with average incomes can no longer afford to by an average priced house. We have overpriced homes and this is the reason why many Americans still cannot afford to buy a house and instead they prefer to rent. At the moment we have a very big imbalance between the state of the real economy and the pricing level in the housing market.
We are in the verge of the housing market collapse and with the current economic downturn, anything can trigger the beginning of the market crash. Maybe the auto loan default or credit card debt default is what will trigger a historic housing market crisis. Usually, we always have a domino effect in the economy and this means that if one section of the economy is not doing well, then other economic sectors are also affected. At the moment, the housing market is the most vulnerable market in the US economy and right now, any imbalance in the economy will be more than enough to trigger a housing market crisis. With a lot happening in the economy, it is very clear that the collapse of the housing market is inevitable; it will finally happen.
Because the FED is continuously pumping money, asset prices will continue increasing but the catch is that this will not happen for long. The real economy is tanking, people are losing their incomes and debt levels are continuously going up. This will be finally reflected in the housing market and it will not end well. Wages cannot catch up with the rising asset prices and what we have now is the housing bubble 2.0. Very soon this bubble will burst and once again millions of average Americans will lose their houses because of foreclosures and others will see a drop in the value of houses they bought for hundreds of thousands of dollars. As the economy recovers from the outbreak, the housing bubble will burst and this will further negatively affect millions of Americans. We are at a tipping point and at this point a housing market crash is inevitable.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Californians Send a Very Clear 4th of July Message to Gov. Gavin Newsom

Beth Baumann from Trending Politics reports , All across the nation , Independence Day fireworks and parades were canceled .
@ @ @ @ @ cases for canceling events that draw a large crowd .
In California , Gov .
@ @ @ @ @ , the Director of Public Health , made the decision to close beaches and cancel @ @ @ @ @ .

Beth Baumann from Trending Politics reports, All across the nation, Independence Day fireworks and parades were canceled. Lawmakers cited concerns about spiking cases for canceling events that draw a large crowd. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom and Barbara Ferrer, the Director of Public Health, made the decision to close beaches and cancel firework displays across the state.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbau…


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--DON’T GET COCKY: Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump’s chances in 2020.

Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020 , a political science professor is still @ @ @ @ @ that shows President Trump having a “ 91 percent ” chance of winning in November @ @ @ @ @ that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “ Primary Model , @ @ @ @ @ five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two @ @ @ @ @ .
“ The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November @ @ @ @ @ “ This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912 , @ @ @ @ @ As Mediaite noted , the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 @ @ @ @ @ and the 2000 election of George W. Bush .

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a “91 percent” chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
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As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--OUCH: Boeing’s Spaceship Still Really, Really Sucks.

In an announcement , NASA outlined a whopping 80 recommendations for Boeing to fix its astronaut shuttle .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ the agency ’ s investigation that followed a botched December test flight that almost ended @ @ @ @ @ comes after Boeing was found in February to have failed to conduct an “ end-to-end @ @ @ @ @ spacecraft prior to the December test flight .
At the time , Boeing was under @ @ @ @ @ have been “ more logical to break the mission phases into chunks and do a @ @ @ @ @ smaller chunks , ” according to Starliner program manager John Mulholland .
The recommendations released @ @ @ @ @ the communications hardware , several updates to the spacecraft ’ s software , and changes @ @ @ @ @

via futurism:
In an announcement, NASA outlined a whopping 80 recommendations for Boeing to fix its astronaut shuttle. It’s the final assessment of the agency’s investigation that followed a botched December test flight that almost ended in disaster.
The news comes after Boeing was found in February to have failed to conduct an “end-to-end” test of its Starliner spacecraft prior to the December test flight. At the time, Boeing was under the belief that it would have been “more logical to break the mission phases into chunks and do a lot of testing in those smaller chunks,” according to Starliner program manager John Mulholland.
The recommendations released this week include overhauls to the communications hardware, several updates to the spacecraft’s software, and changes to safety reporting structures.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-10--Here we go! Federal officials take precautions over fear Ghislaine Maxwell might commit suicide

Federal law enforcement officials have taken precautions to make sure Ghislaine Maxwell , an associate of the late financier Jeffrey @ @ @ @ @ herself while in custody .
An unnamed official said Maxwell , 58 , had her @ @ @ @ @ and that they made her wear paper attire while in custody at a federal jail @ @ @ @ @ according to a Thursday report by the Associated Press .
The Justice Department also implemented @ @ @ @ @ her safe from herself and other inmates .

Federal law enforcement officials have taken precautions to make sure Ghislaine Maxwell, an associate of the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, does not kill herself while in custody.
An unnamed official said Maxwell, 58, had her clothes and sheets taken away and that they made her wear paper attire while in custody at a federal jail in New York City, according to a Thursday report by the Associated Press. The Justice Department also implemented additional security measures to keep her safe from herself and other inmates.
www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/federal-officials-take-precautions-over-fear-ghislaine-maxwell-might-commit-suicide-report