investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Democracy Institute’s Patrick Basham discusses on Canadian TV why his US Presidential election poll

Democracy Institute’s Patrick Basham discusses on Canadian TV why his US Presidential election poll is right and other polls are wrong

Well , polls show that Joe Biden is holding a steady lead over President Donald Trump in key swing states , and the clock is running out on his chances of making a comeback .
With more on this , I want to bring in Patrick Basham from the Democracy Institute .
Patrick is in Washington DC , and his polls show something different CTV : Good morning Patrick , glad you could be with us .
Patrick Basham : Good morning great to be with you .
CTV : Almost every poll out there except for yours shows that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to re-election .
Why is your poll different ?
PB : Mine and a couple of others who predicted Trump would win in 2016 , as you say , is saying that Trump is very competitive at least and probably going to get reelected .
The reason , it ’ s really who we think is going to show up to vote .
And this from Forbes .
Only One Poll Shows Trump Leading .
I Interviewed The Poll ’ s Director .
By Jim Rossi | Oct 13 , 2020 ( forbes.com @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden as heavy favorite – despite him not knowing what state he was in when campaigning here in Las Vegas last week , and him mistakenly saying he ’ s running for Senate .
While the Real Clear Politics average has Biden up 10 points , Donald Trump ’ s betting odds have taken a dive .
After a peak of 48 % , Bovada LV has Orange Man underdogging it at 35 % – Biden -200 , Trump +170 .
The Real Clear Politics average sits at 32.5 % .
But not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Patrick Basham , polling director at the Democracy Institute .
The Democracy Institute is a relative newcomer to political polling – but it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump ’ s historic 2016 upset .
Basham ’ s latest poll has Trump up 46 % to 45 % , and up four points in the critical battleground states .
I asked Basham why his poll looks so different than the others – and why it ’ s getting so little mainstream media play .
JIM ROSSI : True or False : We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American voter shift since at least 1964 , and most pollsters can not or are not measuring it .
PATRICK BASHAM : Partly false and partly true .
It ’ s something of a shift , but not so much historic as an evolution of 2016 .
The part that is undoubtedly true is that most of the polls are misleading their readers into thinking the election is a done deal .
JIM : Are polls actively misleading people – or simply not able to measure what ’ s happening ?
PATRICK : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some polls may just be off , some are advancing an agenda , and there is an intertwining of the two .
In my opinion , there is a misreading of the electorate , based on many assumptions that are not likely accurate .
Polling is supposed to be incredibly scientific , and the science is more advanced than ever .
But polling has always been a synthesis of science and art – and polls are more art than science in 2020 .
One of the major challenges is figuring out how the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – Opinion Research Corporation – got fired by CNN after the 2016 election .
Their main transgression was that they were pretty accurate .
JIM : Coming from CNN , that doesn ’ t surprise me .
PATRICK : The USC poll – University of Southern California – repeatedly asks the same respondents 2 or 3 questions daily… JIM : Like a cross between a poll and a focus group ?
PATRICK : …and it showed Trump competitive in 2016 .
In late September 2020 , it was showing Biden ’ s lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and changed their methodology .
They are underpolling GOP voters .
JIM : Let me ask about secret Trump voters aka shy Trump voters .
In today ’ s “ woke ” “ cancel culture , ” people risk social ostracism , job loss , mob intimidation and outright violence .
Bettors on the underdog see an edge here .
Can we measure these voters ?
PATRICK : How I come at this is , Democracy Institute ’ s first public foray into public polling was Brexit .
We got it correct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % – actual result vs. 3 % – our projected result ) .
The reason why we got it right – maybe the only reason – is we believed there were shy Brexit voters .
So we devised questions to find out , then applied that to the US election in 2016 .
We discovered shy Trump voters – a few percentage points , low single digits – but significant in a close race .
Now we come to 2020 , and a lot of people are looking .
What we found is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Our questions go like this : ‘ If you were a Trump voter , would you tell anybody ?
Would you tell family ?
A friend ?
A coworker ?
Would you put a sign on your lawn or your car ?
’ JIM : In 2016 , Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics average for battleground states by four points .
Is that a good over/under for 2020 ?
PATRICK : I ’ d advise you to take the over .
Nationally – and this is probably conservative , we see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State by state , where the rubber hits the road in the Electoral College , it varies more .
We estimate more in battleground states… JIM : Some of these are literally battleground states – as people argue and in some cases engage in violence .
PATRICK : Very crudely stated , we see three types of shy Trump voters .
First is the blue-collar , middle aged white male in the rural Midwest .
He is more busy than afraid to tell you .
Second is the white suburban female .
Third @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are moving toward Trump in significant , maybe even historic numbers .
JIM : In my experience , people don ’ t easily change their political views .
But two things can change that : serious economic risks and physical danger .
PATRICK : The # 1 predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun .
Black female gun ownership has skyrocketed .
Forty percent of new handgun owners are female ; sixty percent are African American .
JIM : How has the media covered your poll ?
Let me put it another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poll , with the exception of the UK Sunday Express and Breitbart ?
At absolute minimum , it seems very ‘ man bites dog ’ and a juicy story .
PATRICK : If we lived in a media world today like we used to , or a media world we wish it to be , you ’ d assume our ‘ man bites dog ’ story is at least newsworthy .
We were getting some attention with our monthly poll .
Then two months ago , our September poll showed Trump up 48-45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump started tweeting about it .
Then when the October poll came out , Trump was in the hospital with COVID-19 .
Our poll was the only thing he tweeted about that day .
We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard to encounter .
How we produced the numbers was not challenged , just that we produced numbers others don ’ t like .
We ’ ve gone from having the most media-ignored poll to the most infamous poll .
JIM : Do Real Clear Politics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being included in their reporting ?
PATRICK : Real Clear Politics has no hard-and-fast rules .
CNN said , ‘ We don ’ t meet their standards.
’ I agree .
We tend to be accurate .
They simply don ’ t want a counter-narrative .
PATRICK : Most of the polls they have the highest rated are the ones with the worst record in recent years .
JIM : Unlike pundits , bettors benefit from accurate information , not polemics .
People often say , ‘ The only poll that counts is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about fraud .
I think mass-mail voting brings profound election fraud risks .
These polls , to me , are shaping the narrative of how the election is supposed to go .
Some bettors worry the game is fixed .
PATRICK : If you came from another planet and looked at every single line of tangible evidence except polling – just about every one of those metrics point to Trump .
PATRICK : ORC – Opinion Research Corporation – got fired by CNN after the 2016 election .
Their main transgression was that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coming from CNN , that doesn ’ t surprise me .
PATRICK : The USC poll – University of Southern California – repeatedly asks the same respondents 2 or 3 questions daily… JIM : Like a cross between a poll and a focus group ?
PATRICK : …and it showed Trump competitive in 2016 .
In late September 2020 , it was showing Biden ’ s lead evaporate .
They claimed “ technical problems ” and changed their methodology .
They are underpolling GOP voters .
JIM : Let me ask about secret @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In today ’ s “ woke ” “ cancel culture , ” people risk social ostracism , job loss , mob intimidation and outright violence .
Bettors on the underdog see an edge here .
Can we measure these voters ?
PATRICK : How I come at this is , Democracy Institute ’ s first public foray into public polling was Brexit .
We got it correct – within one percentage point ( 4 % – actual result vs. 3 % – our projected result ) .
The reason why we got it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is we believed there were shy Brexit voters .
So we devised questions to find out , then applied that to the US election in 2016 .
We discovered shy Trump voters – a few percentage points , low single digits – but significant in a close race .
Now we come to 2020 , and a lot of people are looking .
What we found is they do exist and in greater numbers .
Our questions go like this : ‘ If you were a Trump voter , would you tell anybody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friend ?
A coworker ?
Would you put a sign on your lawn or your car ?
’ JIM : In 2016 , Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics average for battleground states by four points .
Is that a good over/under for 2020 ?
PATRICK : I ’ d advise you to take the over .
Nationally – and this is probably conservative , we see it at 5 to 6 % .
State by state , where the rubber hits the road in the Electoral College , it varies more .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Some of these are literally battleground states – as people argue and in some cases engage in violence .
PATRICK : Very crudely stated , we see three types of shy Trump voters .
First is the blue-collar , middle aged white male in the rural Midwest .
He is more busy than afraid to tell you .
Second is the white suburban female .
Third are African-American and Hispanic voters .
They are moving toward Trump in significant , maybe even historic numbers .
JIM : In my experience , people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ views .
But two things can change that : serious economic risks and physical danger .
PATRICK : The # 1 predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun .
Black female gun ownership has skyrocketed .
Forty percent of new handgun owners are female ; sixty percent are African American .
JIM : How has the media covered your poll ?
Let me put it another way : Has the media covered your poll , with the exception of the UK Sunday Express and Breitbart ?
At absolute minimum , it seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a juicy story .
PATRICK : If we lived in a media world today like we used to , or a media world we wish it to be , you ’ d assume our ‘ man bites dog ’ story is at least newsworthy .
We were getting some attention with our monthly poll .
Then two months ago , our September poll showed Trump up 48-45 nationally and up 49-42 in battleground states .
Trump started tweeting about it .
Then when the October poll came out , Trump was in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the only thing he tweeted about that day .
We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard to encounter .
How we produced the numbers was not challenged , just that we produced numbers others don ’ t like .
We ’ ve gone from having the most media-ignored poll to the most infamous poll .
JIM : Do Real Clear Politics or CNN have any objective criteria for being included in their reporting ?
PATRICK : Real Clear Politics has no hard-and-fast rules .
CNN said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standards.
’ I agree .
We tend to be accurate .
They simply don ’ t want a counter-narrative .
PATRICK : Most of the polls they have the highest rated are the ones with the worst record in recent years .
JIM : Unlike pundits , bettors benefit from accurate information , not polemics .
People often say , ‘ The only poll that counts is in November.
’ I wrote a book about fraud .
I think mass-mail voting brings profound election fraud risks .
These polls , to me , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election is supposed to go .
Some bettors worry the game is fixed .
PATRICK : If you came from another planet and looked at every single line of tangible evidence except polling – just about every one of those metrics point to Trump…

On Canadian TV, Patrick Basham assesses US election polls
Democracyinstitute.org
Well, polls show that Joe Biden is holding a steady lead over President Donald Trump in key swing states, and the clock is running out on his chances of making a comeback. With more on this, I want to bring in Patrick Basham from the Democracy Institute. Patrick is in Washington DC, and his polls show something different
CTV: Good morning Patrick, glad you could be with us.
Patrick Basham: Good morning great to be with you.
CTV: Almost every poll out there except for yours shows that Joe Biden is on a straight path to re-election. Why is your poll different?
PB: Mine and a couple of others who predicted Trump would win in 2016, as you say, is saying that Trump is very competitive at least and probably going to get reelected. The reason, it’s really who we think is going to show up to vote.
Democracy Institute – US election 2020
democracyinstitute.org/category/us-election-2020/
And this from Forbes.
———-
Only One Poll Shows Trump Leading. I Interviewed The Poll’s Director.
By Jim Rossi | Oct 13, 2020
(forbes.com) – Poll after poll show Joe Biden as heavy favorite – despite him not knowing what state he was in when campaigning here in Las Vegas last week, and him mistakenly saying he’s running for Senate. While the Real Clear Politics average has Biden up 10 points, Donald Trump’s betting odds have taken a dive. After a peak of 48%, Bovada LV has Orange Man underdogging it at 35% – Biden -200, Trump +170. The Real Clear Politics average sits at 32.5%.
But not all is as it seems, according to Patrick Basham, polling director at the Democracy Institute. The Democracy Institute is a relative newcomer to political polling – but it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s historic 2016 upset. Basham’s latest poll has Trump up 46% to 45%, and up four points in the critical battleground states. I asked Basham why his poll looks so different than the others – and why it’s getting so little mainstream media play.
JIM ROSSI: True or False: We’re in the midst of the biggest American voter shift since at least 1964, and most pollsters cannot or are not measuring it.
PATRICK BASHAM: Partly false and partly true. It’s something of a shift, but not so much historic as an evolution of 2016. The part that is undoubtedly true is that most of the polls are misleading their readers into thinking the election is a done deal.
JIM: Are polls actively misleading people – or simply not able to measure what’s happening?
PATRICK: They’re not mutually exclusive. Some polls may just be off, some are advancing an agenda, and there is an intertwining of the two. In my opinion, there is a misreading of the electorate, based on many assumptions that are not likely accurate.
Polling is supposed to be incredibly scientific, and the science is more advanced than ever. But polling has always been a synthesis of science and art – and polls are more art than science in 2020. One of the major challenges is figuring out how the electorate will look.
JIM: You mention a couple examples.
PATRICK: ORC – Opinion Research Corporation – got fired by CNN after the 2016 election. Their main transgression was that they were pretty accurate.
JIM: Coming from CNN, that doesn’t surprise me.
PATRICK: The USC poll – University of Southern California – repeatedly asks the same respondents 2 or 3 questions daily…
JIM: Like a cross between a poll and a focus group?
PATRICK: …and it showed Trump competitive in 2016. In late September 2020, it was showing Biden’s lead evaporate. They claimed “technical problems” and changed their methodology. They are underpolling GOP voters.
JIM: Let me ask about secret Trump voters aka shy Trump voters. In today’s “woke” “cancel culture,” people risk social ostracism, job loss, mob intimidation and outright violence. Bettors on the underdog see an edge here. Can we measure these voters?
PATRICK: How I come at this is, Democracy Institute’s first public foray into public polling was Brexit. We got it correct – within one percentage point (4% – actual result vs. 3% – our projected result). The reason why we got it right – maybe the only reason – is we believed there were shy Brexit voters. So we devised questions to find out, then applied that to the US election in 2016. We discovered shy Trump voters – a few percentage points, low single digits – but significant in a close race.
Now we come to 2020, and a lot of people are looking. What we found is they do exist and in greater numbers. Our questions go like this: ‘If you were a Trump voter, would you tell anybody? Would you tell family? A friend? A coworker? Would you put a sign on your lawn or your car?’
JIM: In 2016, Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics average for battleground states by four points. Is that a good over/under for 2020?
PATRICK: I’d advise you to take the over. Nationally – and this is probably conservative, we see it at 5 to 6%. State by state, where the rubber hits the road in the Electoral College, it varies more. We estimate more in battleground states…
JIM: Some of these are literally battleground states – as people argue and in some cases engage in violence.
PATRICK: Very crudely stated, we see three types of shy Trump voters. First is the blue-collar, middle aged white male in the rural Midwest. He is more busy than afraid to tell you. Second is the white suburban female. Third are African-American and Hispanic voters. They are moving toward Trump in significant, maybe even historic numbers.
JIM: In my experience, people don’t easily change their political views. But two things can change that: serious economic risks and physical danger.
PATRICK: The #1 predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun. Black female gun ownership has skyrocketed. Forty percent of new handgun owners are female; sixty percent are African American.
JIM: How has the media covered your poll? Let me put it another way: Has the media covered your poll, with the exception of the UK Sunday Express and Breitbart? At absolute minimum, it seems very ‘man bites dog’ and a juicy story.
PATRICK: If we lived in a media world today like we used to, or a media world we wish it to be, you’d assume our ‘man bites dog’ story is at least newsworthy. We were getting some attention with our monthly poll. Then two months ago, our September poll showed Trump up 48-45 nationally and up 49-42 in battleground states. Trump started tweeting about it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Then when the October poll came out, Trump was in the hospital with COVID-19. Our poll was the only thing he tweeted about that day. We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard to encounter. How we produced the numbers was not challenged, just that we produced numbers others don’t like. We’ve gone from having the most media-ignored poll to the most infamous poll.
JIM: Do Real Clear Politics or CNN have any objective criteria for being included in their reporting?
PATRICK: Real Clear Politics has no hard-and-fast rules. CNN said, ‘We don’t meet their standards.’ I agree. We tend to be accurate. They simply don’t want a counter-narrative.
JIM: How about FiveThirtyEight?
PATRICK: Most of the polls they have the highest rated are the ones with the worst record in recent years.
JIM: Unlike pundits, bettors benefit from accurate information, not polemics. People often say, ‘The only poll that counts is in November.’ I wrote a book about fraud. I think mass-mail voting brings profound election fraud risks. These polls, to me, are shaping the narrative of how the election is supposed to go. Some bettors worry the game is fixed.
PATRICK: If you came from another planet and looked at every single line of tangible evidence except polling – just about every one of those metrics point to Trump.
JIM: You mention a couple examples.
PATRICK: ORC – Opinion Research Corporation – got fired by CNN after the 2016 election. Their main transgression was that they were pretty accurate.
JIM: Coming from CNN, that doesn’t surprise me.
PATRICK: The USC poll – University of Southern California – repeatedly asks the same respondents 2 or 3 questions daily…
JIM: Like a cross between a poll and a focus group?
PATRICK: …and it showed Trump competitive in 2016. In late September 2020, it was showing Biden’s lead evaporate. They claimed “technical problems” and changed their methodology. They are underpolling GOP voters.
JIM: Let me ask about secret Trump voters aka shy Trump voters. In today’s “woke” “cancel culture,” people risk social ostracism, job loss, mob intimidation and outright violence. Bettors on the underdog see an edge here. Can we measure these voters?
PATRICK: How I come at this is, Democracy Institute’s first public foray into public polling was Brexit. We got it correct – within one percentage point (4% – actual result vs. 3% – our projected result). The reason why we got it right – maybe the only reason – is we believed there were shy Brexit voters. So we devised questions to find out, then applied that to the US election in 2016. We discovered shy Trump voters – a few percentage points, low single digits – but significant in a close race.
Now we come to 2020, and a lot of people are looking. What we found is they do exist and in greater numbers. Our questions go like this: ‘If you were a Trump voter, would you tell anybody? Would you tell family? A friend? A coworker? Would you put a sign on your lawn or your car?’
JIM: In 2016, Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics average for battleground states by four points. Is that a good over/under for 2020?
PATRICK: I’d advise you to take the over. Nationally – and this is probably conservative, we see it at 5 to 6%. State by state, where the rubber hits the road in the Electoral College, it varies more. We estimate more in battleground states…
JIM: Some of these are literally battleground states – as people argue and in some cases engage in violence.
PATRICK: Very crudely stated, we see three types of shy Trump voters. First is the blue-collar, middle aged white male in the rural Midwest. He is more busy than afraid to tell you. Second is the white suburban female. Third are African-American and Hispanic voters. They are moving toward Trump in significant, maybe even historic numbers.
JIM: In my experience, people don’t easily change their political views. But two things can change that: serious economic risks and physical danger.
PATRICK: The #1 predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun. Black female gun ownership has skyrocketed. Forty percent of new handgun owners are female; sixty percent are African American.
JIM: How has the media covered your poll? Let me put it another way: Has the media covered your poll, with the exception of the UK Sunday Express and Breitbart? At absolute minimum, it seems very ‘man bites dog’ and a juicy story.
PATRICK: If we lived in a media world today like we used to, or a media world we wish it to be, you’d assume our ‘man bites dog’ story is at least newsworthy. We were getting some attention with our monthly poll. Then two months ago, our September poll showed Trump up 48-45 nationally and up 49-42 in battleground states. Trump started tweeting about it.
Then when the October poll came out, Trump was in the hospital with COVID-19. Our poll was the only thing he tweeted about that day. We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard to encounter. How we produced the numbers was not challenged, just that we produced numbers others don’t like. We’ve gone from having the most media-ignored poll to the most infamous poll.
JIM: Do Real Clear Politics or CNN have any objective criteria for being included in their reporting?
PATRICK: Real Clear Politics has no hard-and-fast rules. CNN said, ‘We don’t meet their standards.’ I agree. We tend to be accurate. They simply don’t want a counter-narrative.
JIM: How about FiveThirtyEight?
PATRICK: Most of the polls they have the highest rated are the ones with the worst record in recent years.
JIM: Unlike pundits, bettors benefit from accurate information, not polemics. People often say, ‘The only poll that counts is in November.’ I wrote a book about fraud. I think mass-mail voting brings profound election fraud risks. These polls, to me, are shaping the narrative of how the election is supposed to go. Some bettors worry the game is fixed.
PATRICK: If you came from another planet and looked at every single line of tangible evidence except polling – just about every one of those metrics point to Trump…
READ MORE:
www.forbes.com/sites/jimrossi/2020/10/13/only-one-poll-shows-trump-leading-i-interviewed-the-polls-director/#2638f6994ffc
A new shock US poll for @DemocraticINST and #SundayExpress shows that the Black Lives Matter protests are boosting @realDonaldTrump chances of victory…plus voters are worried about Biden's cognitive state amid concerns he has early signs of dementia t.co/VkXEIyurmh — David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) July 7, 2020
h/t Dulcius Ex Asperis


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--One Day, Thousands of Job Cuts: Economic Pain Is Deepening

Tens of thousands of job cuts announced by blue-chip companies in a 24-hour period are a warning sign for the world ’ s recovery and emerge just ahead of two key reports forecast to show limited progress in the U.S. labor market .
In one of the biggest layoff announcements since the pandemic caused widespread economic shutdowns , Walt Disney Co. said late Tuesday that it ’ s slashing 28,000 workers in its slumping U.S. resort business .
In the hours that followed , the pace of job cuts at some of the world ’ s biggest companies — across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to finance — quickened .
On Wednesday , Allstate Corp. , the fourth-largest car insurer in the U.S. , said it will cut 3,800 jobs , roughly 8 % of its workforce .
And Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. plans to cut roughly 400 jobs after temporarily suspending job reductions at the beginning of the crisis .
Announcements like these point to further challenges in a rebound that ’ s already slowed after an initial bounce back in May and June .
Weekly figures due Thursday are estimated to show filings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pre-virus levels , while Friday ’ s jobs report — the last before the November presidential election — is expected to reveal that employers added a half-million fewer workers in September than in August .
“ Job losses were at first concentrated in service-sector jobs , but in any economic downturn you ’ re bound to get some more pruning as corporations are trying to protect profit margins , ” said Brett Ryan , senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. “ You ’ ll see larger companies that may have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ downturn start to reevaluate.
” The fallout isn ’ t contained to American firms .
Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced it will cut as many as 9,000 jobs as crude ’ s crash forces billions of dollars in cost savings , while German auto-parts supplier Continental AG ’ s supervisory board approved a restructuring plan that will cut or shift 30,000 jobs worldwide .

Tens of thousands of job cuts announced by blue-chip companies in a 24-hour period are a warning sign for the world’s recovery and emerge just ahead of two key reports forecast to show limited progress in the U.S. labor market.
In one of the biggest layoff announcements since the pandemic caused widespread economic shutdowns, Walt Disney Co. said late Tuesday that it’s slashing 28,000 workers in its slumping U.S. resort business. In the hours that followed, the pace of job cuts at some of the world’s biggest companies — across in a range of industries from energy to finance — quickened.
On Wednesday, Allstate Corp., the fourth-largest car insurer in the U.S., said it will cut 3,800 jobs, roughly 8% of its workforce. And Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. plans to cut roughly 400 jobs after temporarily suspending job reductions at the beginning of the crisis.
Announcements like these point to further challenges in a rebound that’s already slowed after an initial bounce back in May and June. Weekly figures due Thursday are estimated to show filings for U.S. unemployment benefits remain far above pre-virus levels, while Friday’s jobs report — the last before the November presidential election — is expected to reveal that employers added a half-million fewer workers in September than in August.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Job losses were at first concentrated in service-sector jobs, but in any economic downturn you’re bound to get some more pruning as corporations are trying to protect profit margins,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. “You’ll see larger companies that may have been on a certain revenue trajectory before the downturn start to reevaluate.”
The fallout isn’t contained to American firms. Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced it will cut as many as 9,000 jobs as crude’s crash forces billions of dollars in cost savings, while German auto-parts supplier Continental AG’s supervisory board approved a restructuring plan that will cut or shift 30,000 jobs worldwide.
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/disney-shell-cuts-mark-warning-sign-for-global-economic-rebound


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Make no mistake-the left plans to steal the election. We are watching those plans being implemented

Make no mistake-the left plans to steal the election. We are watching those plans being implemented already.

All those so called “ polls ” that have everyone scratching their head in light of what we are seeing in real world support for President Trump ?
Those are all for two reasons , one is the obvious , to suppress Trump turnout if they can BUT more importantly , they are setting the table for what happens AFTER election night .
What is the other story the media and the left been pumping out ?
That this election won ’ t be decided on election night !
That you can ’ t count on those results until all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counted .
Ask yourself a question though , when have mailed in ballots EVER changed a presidential election night result ?
Yes , there are more who have early voted than normal but all these “ mail in ballots ” ?
There may be more of those but really , are there that many more ?
Just pay attention to what our media and left is saying , they are prepping this story as we speak and are prepared to implement it immediately .
Below is just a small sampling of their code @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Be prepared , it ’ s coming !
WASHINGTON , Oct 29 ( Reuters ) – Dozens of activist groups who claim to represent millions of Americans from both political parties plan to hit the streets next week , if President Donald Trump appears to be interfering with vote counting or manipulating poll results after Election Day .
The “ Protect the Results ” coalition of over 130 groups from Planned Parenthood to Republicans for the Rule of Law , has about 400 events planned to date .
Participants are prepping to demonstrate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wednesday , November 4 , ” the day after Election Day , and await a SMS message .
“ We can ’ t assume that Donald Trump will respect the peaceful transfer of power ” said Sean Eldridge , the founder and president of Stand Up America , which started organizing the coalition in June .
If Trump tries to interfere in the counting of ballots , or pressures state or local officials to say ballots should no longer be counted “ then we would mobilize , ” he said .

All those so called “polls” that have everyone scratching their head in light of what we are seeing in real world support for President Trump? Those are all for two reasons, one is the obvious, to suppress Trump turnout if they can BUT more importantly, they are setting the table for what happens AFTER election night.
What is the other story the media and the left been pumping out? That this election won’t be decided on election night! That you can’t count on those results until all the “mail in ballots” are counted. Ask yourself a question though, when have mailed in ballots EVER changed a presidential election night result?
Yes, there are more who have early voted than normal but all these “mail in ballots”? There may be more of those but really, are there that many more?
Just pay attention to what our media and left is saying, they are prepping this story as we speak and are prepared to implement it immediately. Below is just a small sampling of their code word rhetoric we are already hearing. Be prepared, it’s coming!
news.trust.org/item/20201029090612-t69f4
WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (Reuters) – Dozens of activist groups who claim to represent millions of Americans from both political parties plan to hit the streets next week, if President Donald Trump appears to be interfering with vote counting or manipulating poll results after Election Day.
The “Protect the Results” coalition of over 130 groups from Planned Parenthood to Republicans for the Rule of Law, has about 400 events planned to date.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
protecttheresults.com/
Participants are prepping to demonstrate “as early as the afternoon on Wednesday, November 4,” the day after Election Day, and await a SMS message.
“We can’t assume that Donald Trump will respect the peaceful transfer of power” said Sean Eldridge, the founder and president of Stand Up America, which started organizing the coalition in June.
If Trump tries to interfere in the counting of ballots, or pressures state or local officials to say ballots should no longer be counted “then we would mobilize,” he said.
h/t FeedYourHead


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Global Dark Winter Plan Initiated – France national security alert system has just been raised to th

Global Dark Winter Plan Initiated – France national security alert system has just been raised to the maximum level!

Looks like the globalists are firing off a global Jihad , starting in France !

URGENT – Vigipirate Plan, the national security alert system, has just been raised to the maximum level **URGENCE ATTENTAT** for the whole territory of #France – Prime Minister pic.twitter.com/rD8bX0PgD7 — Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) October 29, 2020
Looks like the globalists are firing off a global Jihad, starting in France!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
BREAKING – France hit by terror wave on Prophet Mohamed’s birthday: – beheadings in the church of Notre-Dame in #Nice
– stabbing attack on police officers in #Avignon
– knife attack on a security guard at the French embassy in Saudi Arabia — Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) October 29, 2020
HAPPENING NOW – Crowd shouts "Allahu Akbar" in front of the French embassy in Moscow.pic.twitter.com/57xSIFAmHu — Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) October 29, 2020
A France women slapped by Muslim man as she was speaking her disagreements against Islam religion. #FranceBeheading pic.twitter.com/3QnJC5X7XN — blank (@quote_believe) October 29, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Eight in 10 Covid-19 hospital patients are vitamin D deficient, study

• University of Cantabria researchers in Santander looked at 216 Covid patients • Found 82 % were deficient in vitamin D , compared to 47 % in the control group • Adds to mountain of evidence pointing to link between nutrient , illness severity Further proof that vitamin D could protect people from coronavirus emerged today after a study found deficiencies in the sunshine nutrient are four times as common among hospitalised patients .
A mountain of research from around the world has painted a clear picture — infected patients who do not have enough vitamin D are more likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists have so far been unable to pin down whether the nutrient deficiency is making people more vulnerable to the disease , or whether becoming unwell causes vitamin D levels to crash .
Now Spanish experts have uncovered more evidence that suggests cheap vitamin D supplements – which cost as little as 6p per pill – could prove beneficial .
Experts at the University of Cantabria in Santander looked at 216 Covid-19 patients at the Valdecilla Hospital in the northern Spanish city .
Eighty-two per cent were deficient in vitamin D , whereas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the nutrient – a fourfold difference .
This was compared to the 47 per cent of people who were deficient in a control group who did not have the infection .
Forty-four of the deficient Covid-19 patients were moved to ICU because their illness became worse and 37 needed mechanical ventilation — but their vitamin D levels were not any lower than the rest of the group .
The other patients recovered without needing extra care .

University of Cantabria researchers in Santander looked at 216 Covid patients
Found 82% were deficient in vitamin D, compared to 47% in the control group
Adds to mountain of evidence pointing to link between nutrient, illness severity
Further proof that vitamin D could protect people from coronavirus emerged today after a study found deficiencies in the sunshine nutrient are four times as common among hospitalised patients.
A mountain of research from around the world has painted a clear picture — infected patients who do not have enough vitamin D are more likely to end up in hospital.
But scientists have so far been unable to pin down whether the nutrient deficiency is making people more vulnerable to the disease, or whether becoming unwell causes vitamin D levels to crash.
Now Spanish experts have uncovered more evidence that suggests cheap vitamin D supplements – which cost as little as 6p per pill – could prove beneficial.
Experts at the University of Cantabria in Santander looked at 216 Covid-19 patients at the Valdecilla Hospital in the northern Spanish city.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Eighty-two per cent were deficient in vitamin D, whereas just 18 per cent had adequate levels of the nutrient – a fourfold difference.
This was compared to the 47 per cent of people who were deficient in a control group who did not have the infection.
Forty-four of the deficient Covid-19 patients were moved to ICU because their illness became worse and 37 needed mechanical ventilation — but their vitamin D levels were not any lower than the rest of the group. The other patients recovered without needing extra care.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8884139/Eight-10-Covid-19-hospital-patients-vitamin-D-deficient-study.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Democrats promise to inflict maximum punishment on Republicans for following the law and Constitutio

Democrats promise to inflict maximum punishment on Republicans for following the law and Constitution .
t.co/w71nJSwyIA

Democrats promise to inflict maximum punishment on Republicans for following the law and Constitution. t.co/w71nJSwyIA
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) October 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--TEXAS GOVERNOR ORDERS 1,000 TROOPS FOR “POST-ELECTION DISTURBANCES”

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered 1000 troops to help dissolve “ post-election disturbances.
” With only one week to go , many political ruling class parasites are trying to make martial law the “ new normal.
” If you thought the possibility of a national mask mandate was bad , you probably won ’ t like the idea of martial law : coming soon to a city near you .
In fact , in Texas , 5 major cities will have National Guard troops in them ahead of the November 3 elections .
The five cities that will see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Dallas , Fort Worth , Houston , and San Antonio .
The troops will likely start hitting those cities beginning this weekend .
Although a formal announcement is expected from Texas Gov .
Greg Abbott later this week , Guard commander Maj. Gen. Tracy Norris had already been directed to draft contingency plans for the cities in case there was trouble , according to the San Antonio Express-News .
Guard spokesman Brandon Jones didn ’ t give detailed plans of the operation but said the troops could be sent this weekend—just days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Troops will likely be sent to places in the cities where flare ups and protests are going to happen either as a result of the outcome or the presence of extremists on either side before .
The details remain sketchy so far , including how many troops will be sent to each city .
We are being groomed to accept martial law : This isn ’ t the first time this year that Abbott has deployed the Texas Guard to protect cities and historic landmarks .
He sent them to San Antonio to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Austin to protect the state capitol during nationwide protests after the May 25 death of George Floyd , a Black man who died while in custody of the Minneapolis police .
–Newsweek Martial Law Becoming Increasingly Acceptable As Cities Fall Under Social Unrest Americans Are Stocking Up On Military Gear Before The Election

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered 1000 troops to help dissolve “post-election disturbances.” With only one week to go, many political ruling class parasites are trying to make martial law the “new normal.”
If you thought the possibility of a national mask mandate was bad, you probably won’t like the idea of martial law: coming soon to a city near you. In fact, in Texas, 5 major cities will have National Guard troops in them ahead of the November 3 elections.
The five cities that will see a form of martial law are Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. The troops will likely start hitting those cities beginning this weekend.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Although a formal announcement is expected from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott later this week, Guard commander Maj. Gen. Tracy Norris had already been directed to draft contingency plans for the cities in case there was trouble, according to the San Antonio Express-News. Guard spokesman Brandon Jones didn’t give detailed plans of the operation but said the troops could be sent this weekend—just days ahead of the presidential election. –Newsweek
Troops will likely be sent to places in the cities where flare ups and protests are going to happen either as a result of the outcome or the presence of extremists on either side before. The details remain sketchy so far, including how many troops will be sent to each city.
We are being groomed to accept martial law:
This isn’t the first time this year that Abbott has deployed the Texas Guard to protect cities and historic landmarks. He sent them to San Antonio to protect the Alamo, and also to Austin to protect the state capitol during nationwide protests after the May 25 death of George Floyd, a Black man who died while in custody of the Minneapolis police. –Newsweek
Martial Law Becoming Increasingly Acceptable As Cities Fall Under Social Unrest
Americans Are Stocking Up On Military Gear Before The Election


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--The Bank of England has pumped up the housing market again

Overnight there has been quite a shift in economic sentiment .
To some extent I am referring to the falls in equity markets although the real issue is the new lockdown in France and increased restrictions in Germany .
As we have been noting they were obviously on their way and the Euro area now looks set to see its economy contract again this quarter .
It will be interesting to see how and if the ECB responds to this in today ’ s meeting and these feeds also into the Bank of England .
The UK has tightened restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we now wonder what more the central banks can do in response to this ?
Still even in this economic storm there is something to make a central banker smile .
Few things cheer a central banker more than an improvement in prospects for The Precious !
But we can see that there is also for them a cherry on top of the icing .
That links into the theme of monetary easing which of course is claimed to help businesses but if you believe the official protestations somehow inexplicably ends up in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let us look at the latest monetary data which has just been released .
Oh and one point before I move on , what use are analysts who keep getting things so wrong ?
Whoever was responsible for the Bank of England morning meeting today must have run there with a smile on their face and gone through the whole release word by word .
From their perspective they will see this as a direct response to the interest-rate cuts and QE they have undertaken as net mortgage borrowing has gone from £0.2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Something they can achieve .
The outlook , from their perspective , looks bright as well .
At this point we have what in central banking terms is quite an apparent triumph as they have lit the blue touch paper for the housing market .
It has not only been them as there have also been Stamp Duty reductions but we see that there is an area of the economy that monetary policy can affect .
As to what people are paying ?
Here are the numbers .
Curiously the Money and Credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply numbers these days although we do get this .
In essence this is part of the higher savings we have observed where people have furlough payments to keep incomes going but opportunities to spend them have been cut .
I have looked them up and annual M4 ( broad money ) growth was 11.6 % in September .
So we are seeing a push of the order of 12 % which is more than in the Euro area .
Here the going has got a lot tougher and the monetary push seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers have established something of an even declining trend since July .
This means that the detail looks really rather grim .
In fact it is essentially repayment of credit card debt .
So it has an annual growth rate of -11.3 % now .
That is probably due to the price of it which is something of a binary situation.For those unaware there have been quite a few 0 % offers in the UK for some time now but this is also true for others .
Although blaming the interest-rate for credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overdraft interest-rates have been on quite a tear .
Perhaps those that can have switched to the much cheaper personal loans .
As you can see Bank of England policy has been effective in reducing the price of those .
The present situation gives us an insight into the limits of monetary policy and as to whether we are “ maxxed out ” .
We see that the Bank of England interest-rate cuts , QE bond purchases ( another £4.4 billion this week ) and credit easing can influence the housing market and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noted the way that more risky borrowers are now wondering where all the interest-rate cuts went ?
For example a 2 year fixed rate with a 5 % deposit was 2.74 % in July as the Bank of England pushed rates lower but was 3.95 % in September , or a fair bit higher than before the easing ( it was typically around 3 % ) .
So we see that monetary policy is colliding with these times even before we get out into the real economy and a reason for this can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ release from Lloyds Bank .
Some £62.7 billion of mortgages went into payment holidays of which £9.1 billion have been further extended and £2.2 billion have missed payments .
No doubt the banks fear more of this and this is why they are tightening credit for riskier borrowers which operates in the opposite direction to Bank of England policy .
So the easing gets muted and we are left mostly with the easing of credit for the government as the instrument of policy right now .

by Shaun Richards
Overnight there has been quite a shift in economic sentiment. To some extent I am referring to the falls in equity markets although the real issue is the new lockdown in France and increased restrictions in Germany. As we have been noting they were obviously on their way and the Euro area now looks set to see its economy contract again this quarter. It will be interesting to see how and if the ECB responds to this in today’s meeting and these feeds also into the Bank of England. The UK has tightened restrictions especially in Northern Ireland and Wales as we now wonder what more the central banks can do in response to this?
Still even in this economic storm there is something to make a central banker smile.
LONDON (Reuters) – Lloyds Banking Group LLOY.L posted forecast-beating third quarter profit on Thursday, lowering its provisions for expected bad loans due to the pandemic and cashing in on a boom in demand for mortgages. Britain’s biggest domestic lender reported pre-tax profits of 1 billion pounds for the July-September period, compared to the 588 million pounds average of analysts’ forecasts.
Few things cheer a central banker more than an improvement in prospects for The Precious! But we can see that there is also for them a cherry on top of the icing.
The bank booked new mortgage lending of 3.5 billion pounds over the quarter, after receiving the biggest surge in quarterly applications since 2008.
That links into the theme of monetary easing which of course is claimed to help businesses but if you believe the official protestations somehow inexplicably ends up in the housing market every time. So let us look at the latest monetary data which has just been released. Oh and one point before I move on, what use are analysts who keep getting things so wrong?
Mortgages
Whoever was responsible for the Bank of England morning meeting today must have run there with a smile on their face and gone through the whole release word by word.
The mortgage market strengthened a little further in September. On net, households borrowed an additional £4.8 billion secured on their homes, following borrowing of £3.0 billion in August. This pickup in borrowing follows high levels of mortgage approvals for house purchase seen over recent months. Mortgage borrowing troughed at £0.2 billion in April, but has since recovered reaching levels slightly higher than the average of £4.0 billion in the six months to February 2020. The increase on the month reflected higher gross borrowing of £20.5 billion, although this remains below the February level of £23.4 billion.
From their perspective they will see this as a direct response to the interest-rate cuts and QE they have undertaken as net mortgage borrowing has gone from £0.2 billion in April to £4.8 billion. Something they can achieve.
The outlook,from their perspective, looks bright as well.
The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase continued increasing sharply in September, to 91,500 from 85,500 in August (Chart 1). This was the highest number of approvals since September 2007, and is 24% higher than approvals in February 2020. Approvals in September were around 10 times higher than the trough of 9,300 approvals in May.
At this point we have what in central banking terms is quite an apparent triumph as they have lit the blue touch paper for the housing market. It has not only been them as there have also been Stamp Duty reductions but we see that there is an area of the economy that monetary policy can affect.
As to what people are paying? Here are the numbers.
The ‘effective’ interest rates – the actual interest rates paid – on newly drawn, and the outstanding stock of, mortgages were little changed in September. New mortgage rates were 1.74%, an increase of 2 basis points on the month, while the interest rate on the stock of mortgage loans fell 1 basis point to 2.13% in September.
Money Supply
Curiously the Money and Credit release does not tell us the money supply numbers these days although we do get this.
Overall, private sector companies and households increased their holdings of money in September. Sterling money (known as M4ex) increased by £10.8 billion in September; a significant rise from August which saw withdrawals of £1.0 billion (Chart 5). This is a continuation of the trend of strong deposit flows seen between March and July, albeit at a much weaker pace in comparison to the £40.5 billion monthly average seen during that period.
In essence this is part of the higher savings we have observed where people have furlough payments to keep incomes going but opportunities to spend them have been cut.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I have looked them up and annual M4 (broad money) growth was 11.6% in September. So we are seeing a push of the order of 12% which is more than in the Euro area.
Consumer Credit
Here the going has got a lot tougher and the monetary push seems to be fading already.
Household’s consumer credit weakened in September with net repayments of £0.6 billion, following some additional net borrowing in July (£1.1 billion) and August (£0.3 billion).
Actually the numbers have established something of an even declining trend since July. This means that the detail looks really rather grim.
Although the repayment in September was small in comparison to the £3.9 billion monthly average seen between March and June, this contrasts with an average of £1.1 billion of additional borrowing per month in the 18 months to February 2020. The weakness in consumer credit net flows pushed the annual growth rate down further in September to -4.6%, a new series low since it began in 1994.
In fact it is essentially repayment of credit card debt.
The net repayment of consumer credit was driven by a net repayment on credit cards of £0.6 billion
So it has an annual growth rate of -11.3% now. That is probably due to the price of it which is something of a binary situation.For those unaware there have been quite a few 0% offers in the UK for some time now but this is also true for others.
The cost of credit card borrowing was also broadly unchanged at 17.92% in September.
Although blaming the interest-rate for credit card borrowing does have the problem that overdraft interest-rates have been on quite a tear.
The effective rates – the actual interest rate paid – on interest-charging overdrafts continued to rise in September, by 3.52 percentage points to 22.52%. This is the highest since the series began in 2016, and compares to a rate of 10.32% in March 2020 before new rules on overdraft pricing came into effect.
Perhaps those that can have switched to the much cheaper personal loans.
Rates on new personal loans to individuals were little changed in September, at 4.78%, compared to an interest rate of around 7% in early 2020.
As you can see Bank of England policy has been effective in reducing the price of those.
Comment
The present situation gives us an insight into the limits of monetary policy and as to whether we are “maxxed out”. We see that the Bank of England interest-rate cuts, QE bond purchases (another £4.4 billion this week) and credit easing can influence the housing market and personal loans. However we have also noted the way that more risky borrowers are now wondering where all the interest-rate cuts went? For example a 2 year fixed rate with a 5% deposit was 2.74% in July as the Bank of England pushed rates lower but was 3.95% in September, or a fair bit higher than before the easing ( it was typically around 3%).
So we see that monetary policy is colliding with these times even before we get out into the real economy and a reason for this can be see on this morning’s release from Lloyds Bank. Some £62.7 billion of mortgages went into payment holidays of which £9.1 billion have been further extended and £2.2 billion have missed payments. No doubt the banks fear more of this and this is why they are tightening credit for riskier borrowers which operates in the opposite direction to Bank of England policy.
So the easing gets muted and we are left mostly with the easing of credit for the government as the instrument of policy right now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Why the Economy Isn’t Controlled by One Big Corporation

More than a century of failure , mass murder , and ruined economies has not been sufficient to dissuade socialists form the idea that socialism—by which I mean Soviet-style socialism , not social democracy—can bring astounding prosperity once the planners work out the kinks .
Sure , the Soviet Union failed , North Korea is a basket case , and socialist countries routinely drive down local standards of living in pursuit of utopia .
But success will be achieved just as soon as socialists can find the right way to combine new technologies like “ big data ” with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at last , a functional and efficient socialist state will be at hand .
One of the latest schemes for finding the right “ techniques and technologies ” that will allow us to crack the socialist nut could recently be found at the avowedly socialist magazine Jacobin in May of this year .
The author , Paul S. Adler , is in search of a model that can allow current “ capitalist ” economies ( which are really just third-way interventionist economies ) to transition to a socialist model .
He thinks he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have something like a working model of such a system right under our noses , ” Adler concludes , “ in many of our largest corporations.
” And what is this model ?
According to Adler , large private sector firms have shown that it is possible for one large organization to efficiently produce products and services based on a single internally created central plan .
In other words , capitalists have shown that societies can be run using “ strategic management , ” which sidesteps capitalist competition and decentralization .
Large firms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and then introduce a central plan to grow the firm and increase profits .
In Adler ’ s mind , these firms are essentially self-governing bodies that can act in accordance with internal plans .
That is , they may be prototypes for constructing successful socialist states .
Unfortunately for Adler , large firms—even very , very large ones—are not comparable to socialist states , and Adler ’ s strategy of modeling a socialist state on large capitalist firms is doomed to failure .
Adler makes the case for looking at large firms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ akin to those employed by socialist planners : Many of our CEOs behave like closet socialists .
Most large firms are divided into more or less self-sufficient “ strategic business units ” charged with developing new products and assuring their production , sale , and profitability .
In public , their CEOs defend the superiority of markets and competition over coordination and planning , but inside their own corporations , where they could leave these business units to compete with each other , they rely instead on comprehensive strategic management .
Such strategic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business units that make up the corporation coordinate their production , investment , and other plans to achieve the best outcomes for the corporation as a whole .
Yes , there are some corporations that try to emulate the market in their internal operations , but that approach is relatively rare .
In most firms , the activity of business units is coordinated by a strategic vision and plan — much like the activity of enterprises across the country would be coordinated under democratic socialism… .
Moreover , in this internal strategic management @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the microcosm of the firm — the same challenges as those that bedeviled economic planning on the wider scale in the USSR .
The four biggest of these challenges are how to assure democracy , innovation , efficiency , and motivation .
If socialists can employ similar corporate strategies , Adler appears to believe , then a functioning and efficient socialist state might be made to work after all .
Socialist economies , however , don ’ t fail because they haven ’ t yet found out the right management or planning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because workers in socialist states are unmotivated .
They don ’ t fail because they are insufficiently democratic .
To some outsiders looking in , it may seem like huge capitalist firms have worked around the price system .
It might seem like they make all their planning decisions internally and that through “ vertical integration ” these firms have sidestepped the need of an external marketplace .
But things are not what they seem .
Large firms with large amounts of vertical integration are nonetheless quite reliant on a functioning price system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calculation and planning .
Without other firms and without an economy external to the firm , corporate planners have no way to even guess if current strategic plans and production methods are efficient .
For this reason , if a capitalist firm were ever to grow so large that it subsumed all markets—leaving no external functioning price system—it would fail just as a socialist state fails .
Without prices , a firm ’ s managers—just like socialist planners—can ’ t calculate or estimate what ought to be bought or produced and in what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Man , Economy , and State when he wrote : paradoxically , the reason why a socialist economy can not calculate is not specifically because it is socialist !
Socialism is that system in which the State forcibly seizes control of all the means of production in the economy .
The reason for the impossibility of calculation under socialism is that one agent owns or directs the use of all the resources in the economy .
It should be clear that it does not make any difference whether that one agent is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cartel .
Whichever occurs , there is no possibility of calculation anywhere in the production structure , since production processes would be only internal and without markets .
There could be no calculation , and therefore complete economic irrationality and chaos would prevail , whether the single owner is the State or private persons .
The difference between the State and the private case is that our economic law debars people from ever establishing such a system in a free-market society .
Far lesser evils prevent entrepreneurs from establishing even islands of incalculability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by eliminating calculability altogether .
But the State does not and can not follow such guides of profit and loss ; its officials are not held back by fear of losses from setting up all-embracing cartels for one or more vertically integrated products .
The State is free to embark upon socialism without considering such matters .
While there is therefore no possibility of a one-firm economy or even a one-firm vertically integrated product , there is much danger in an attempt at socialism by the State In the real world , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not allow for a single firm to become so large that it can take over the entire economy .
So long as other firms are able to enter the scene , markets will arise , and a price system will exist.1 It ’ s Not Always Profitable to Do Everything Yourself The reasons for this are complex , as Rothbard explains , but in a competitive marketplace firms must constantly reevaluate if they are employing their resources in the most profitable way .
So long as it is legal for new firms and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the case in a nonsocialist economy ) managers must ask themselves : is my auto-producing firm more efficient when producing its own steel , or would it be better to lease that land and equipment to some other other producer ?
Is it most efficient for our home-building firm to own its own forests and cut its own lumber ?
Or should the firm acquire the lumber from someone else ?
It is often assumed by socialists—including , apparently , Adler—that firms always benefit when they own their own factors of production @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could force down lumber prices , for example , if that firm owned all the forests and employed all the lumberjacks .
But it is not at all necessarily the case .
In many cases , a firm might become more profitable if it acquires its factors of production from the outside .
One reason for this is that entrepreneurship often creates new and more economical ways to produce and deliver goods and services .
And this is often done outside the large , inflexible organizations that may already be heavily invested in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As Per Bylund has noted : Entrepreneurial production is often — and should be — done small-scale using highly flexible and adjustable production processes using technology that is effective at that scale but hopelessly costly at larger scale .
Economies of scale come into play after the market value of a good has been discovered and consumer demand appears to be way beyond what existing firms are able to satisfy .
At this point , these firms can invest in increasing output .
But they would typically do so while at the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no longer necessary to carry out internally — they thus “ shrink ” in terms of vertical integration while expanding production volume .
This is a race to the bottom as competitors attempt to undercut each other by offering ever lower prices , eventually reaching the minimum production cost .
This process can at any time be disrupted by new innovation .
Thus , it ’ s easy to imagine a case in which a firm voluntarily makes itself smaller so as become more profitable and more efficient .
To many socialists , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often assumed that capitalists think bigger is better and that larger organizations are more profitable .
This , of course , is far removed from how states—and especially socialist states—function .
For a state , it is always better to become larger and more monopolistic while exercising more control over the means of production .
But this process also has the effect of destroying the price system , and thus destroying the possibility of economic calculation .
The end result is economic chaos and ruin .
• 1.Per Bylund suggests that in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even fewer large companies than there are now ; very large corporations are a result of government interventions which limit competition .
Ryan McMaken ( @ ryanmcmaken ) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute .
Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado .
He is the author of Commie Cowboys : The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre .

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
More than a century of failure, mass murder, and ruined economies has not been sufficient to dissuade socialists form the idea that socialism—by which I mean Soviet-style socialism, not social democracy—can bring astounding prosperity once the planners work out the kinks.
Sure, the Soviet Union failed, North Korea is a basket case, and socialist countries routinely drive down local standards of living in pursuit of utopia. But success will be achieved just as soon as socialists can find the right way to combine new technologies like “big data” with the right public administration techniques. Then, at last, a functional and efficient socialist state will be at hand.
One of the latest schemes for finding the right “techniques and technologies” that will allow us to crack the socialist nut could recently be found at the avowedly socialist magazine Jacobin in May of this year.
The author, Paul S. Adler, is in search of a model that can allow current “capitalist” economies (which are really just third-way interventionist economies) to transition to a socialist model. He thinks he may have found it.
“We have something like a working model of such a system right under our noses,” Adler concludes, “in many of our largest corporations.”
And what is this model?
According to Adler, large private sector firms have shown that it is possible for one large organization to efficiently produce products and services based on a single internally created central plan. In other words, capitalists have shown that societies can be run using “strategic management,” which sidesteps capitalist competition and decentralization.
Large firms consolidate resources, monopolize whole industries, and then introduce a central plan to grow the firm and increase profits. In Adler’s mind, these firms are essentially self-governing bodies that can act in accordance with internal plans. That is, they may be prototypes for constructing successful socialist states.
Unfortunately for Adler, large firms—even very, very large ones—are not comparable to socialist states, and Adler’s strategy of modeling a socialist state on large capitalist firms is doomed to failure.
Here’s why.
Do Corporations Act like Socialist States?
Adler makes the case for looking at large firms as organizations that successfully implement central plans akin to those employed by socialist planners:
Many of our CEOs behave like closet socialists. Most large firms are divided into more or less self-sufficient “strategic business units” charged with developing new products and assuring their production, sale, and profitability. In public, their CEOs defend the superiority of markets and competition over coordination and planning, but inside their own corporations, where they could leave these business units to compete with each other, they rely instead on comprehensive strategic management. Such strategic management aims to ensure that the various business units that make up the corporation coordinate their production, investment, and other plans to achieve the best outcomes for the corporation as a whole. Yes, there are some corporations that try to emulate the market in their internal operations, but that approach is relatively rare. In most firms, the activity of business units is coordinated by a strategic vision and plan — much like the activity of enterprises across the country would be coordinated under democratic socialism…. Moreover, in this internal strategic management process, corporations confront in miniature — in the microcosm of the firm — the same challenges as those that bedeviled economic planning on the wider scale in the USSR. The four biggest of these challenges are how to assure democracy, innovation, efficiency, and motivation.
If socialists can employ similar corporate strategies, Adler appears to believe, then a functioning and efficient socialist state might be made to work after all.
It’s All about Prices
Socialist economies, however, don’t fail because they haven’t yet found out the right management or planning scheme. They don’t fail because workers in socialist states are unmotivated. They don’t fail because they are insufficiently democratic.
Socialist economies fail because they lack a functioning price system.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
To some outsiders looking in, it may seem like huge capitalist firms have worked around the price system. It might seem like they make all their planning decisions internally and that through “vertical integration” these firms have sidestepped the need of an external marketplace.
But things are not what they seem. Large firms with large amounts of vertical integration are nonetheless quite reliant on a functioning price system outside the firm for purposes of economic calculation and planning. Without other firms and without an economy external to the firm, corporate planners have no way to even guess if current strategic plans and production methods are efficient.
For this reason, if a capitalist firm were ever to grow so large that it subsumed all markets—leaving no external functioning price system—it would fail just as a socialist state fails. Without prices, a firm’s managers—just like socialist planners—can’t calculate or estimate what ought to be bought or produced and in what amounts.
Murray Rothbard addressed this in Man, Economy, and State when he wrote:
paradoxically, the reason why a socialist economy cannot calculate is not specifically because it is socialist! Socialism is that system in which the State forcibly seizes control of all the means of production in the economy. The reason for the impossibility of calculation under socialism is that one agent owns or directs the use of all the resources in the economy. It should be clear that it does not make any difference whether that one agent is the State or one private individual or private cartel. Whichever occurs, there is no possibility of calculation anywhere in the production structure, since production processes would be only internal and without markets. There could be no calculation, and therefore complete economic irrationality and chaos would prevail, whether the single owner is the State or private persons. The difference between the State and the private case is that our economic law debars people from ever establishing such a system in a free-market society. Far lesser evils prevent entrepreneurs from establishing even islands of incalculability, let alone infinitely compounding such errors by eliminating calculability altogether. But the State does not and cannot follow such guides of profit and loss; its officials are not held back by fear of losses from setting up all-embracing cartels for one or more vertically integrated products. The State is free to embark upon socialism without considering such matters. While there is therefore no possibility of a one-firm economy or even a one-firm vertically integrated product, there is much danger in an attempt at socialism by the State
In the real world, an unhampered or even mostly free economy does not allow for a single firm to become so large that it can take over the entire economy. So long as other firms are able to enter the scene, markets will arise, and a price system will exist.1
It’s Not Always Profitable to Do Everything Yourself
The reasons for this are complex, as Rothbard explains, but in a competitive marketplace firms must constantly reevaluate if they are employing their resources in the most profitable way. So long as it is legal for new firms and entrepreneurs to enter the marketplace (as is the case in a nonsocialist economy) managers must ask themselves: is my auto-producing firm more efficient when producing its own steel, or would it be better to lease that land and equipment to some other other producer? Is it most efficient for our home-building firm to own its own forests and cut its own lumber? Or should the firm acquire the lumber from someone else?
It is often assumed by socialists—including, apparently, Adler—that firms always benefit when they own their own factors of production. It is assumed that a firm could force down lumber prices, for example, if that firm owned all the forests and employed all the lumberjacks. But it is not at all necessarily the case. In many cases, a firm might become more profitable if it acquires its factors of production from the outside.
One reason for this is that entrepreneurship often creates new and more economical ways to produce and deliver goods and services. And this is often done outside the large, inflexible organizations that may already be heavily invested in a certain way of doing things. As Per Bylund has noted:
Entrepreneurial production is often — and should be — done small-scale using highly flexible and adjustable production processes using technology that is effective at that scale but hopelessly costly at larger scale. Economies of scale come into play after the market value of a good has been discovered and consumer demand appears to be way beyond what existing firms are able to satisfy. At this point, these firms can invest in increasing output. But they would typically do so while at the same time shedding stages of production that are no longer necessary to carry out internally — they thus “shrink” in terms of vertical integration while expanding production volume. This is a race to the bottom as competitors attempt to undercut each other by offering ever lower prices, eventually reaching the minimum production cost. This process can at any time be disrupted by new innovation.
Thus, it’s easy to imagine a case in which a firm voluntarily makes itself smaller so as become more profitable and more efficient.
To many socialists, this does not compute. It is often assumed that capitalists think bigger is better and that larger organizations are more profitable.
This, of course, is far removed from how states—and especially socialist states—function. For a state, it is always better to become larger and more monopolistic while exercising more control over the means of production. But this process also has the effect of destroying the price system, and thus destroying the possibility of economic calculation. The end result is economic chaos and ruin.
Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken
Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Fun fact: 17 out of 45 US Presidents (39%) haven’t been elected with a majority of the popular vote

by AndTer99
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
(17 because Wilson and Clinton have been elected twice without winning a majority of the popular vote)


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Just like how the mafia takes over a business then bankrupts it and burns it down

The Bidens Got Into the Hospital Business and People Died There wasn ’ t enough money for medication , tests , or sterilizing instruments , but lots of money for the Bidens .
The old slogan , “ The Best of Care ” can still be found on Ellwood City Medical Center ’ s old promotional materials .
When the pandemic began , the old rural Rust Belt country where President Trump beat Hillary Clinton could have used a hospital .
Any hospital .
There was even talk of reopening the defunct hospital again to treat coronavirus patients .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Ellwood City Medical Center never recovered from the Democrats .
The FBI raided it in January and the hospital lost its license next month .
Not that it mattered at that point because the hospital had already been shut down since December .
Despite that , the hospital managed to score $ 1.8 million in coronavirus relief funds .
With no hospital , local residents face a trip if they ’ re injured .
And if the injury is bad enough , they might not survive .
The closed hospital in Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legacy .
In the three years since Americore CEO Grant White was allegedly introduced by James Biden to Joe Biden at a fundraiser for the Beau Biden Foundation , a charity co-chaired by Hunter Biden whose laptop bearing the foundation ’ s sticker is at the center of a new scandal , there have been lawsuits , an FBI raid , and investigations in different cities and states .
“ James Biden mentioned that his brother ’ s connections to labor unions and the Department of Veterans Affairs would help DMM expand its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by one company claims .
White would later claim that Biden told him , “ there ’ s not a single door in the country that we can ’ t open.
” James Biden , Joe ’ s brother , had become a principal at Americore whose business model was based on buying and turning around rural hospitals .
But the turnaround was into the grave .
Obamacare had hit rural hospitals hard , forcing many of them to shut down .
By Obama ’ s last year in office , 4 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hundreds more were on the brink .
And the Bidens had figured out a way to profit from the devastation caused by Obama-Biden .
“ His brother was very interested in rural health care and very interested in veterans ’ health care , and it was something he really wanted to get behind , ” an Americore executive recalled Biden telling him .
“ This would help his brother get elected.
” After Americore took over the Ellwood City Medical Center , it racked up over 40 citations from the Department of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wound unit was closed , and access to its MRI machines was sidelined .
In 2018 , James Biden was renovating his Americore office and demanding expensive furniture as part of an office that was described as a “ little shrine to him and his brother and Obama.
” Utilities threatened to turn off the gas and the water at Ellwood .
Instruments weren ’ t being sterilized because there was no equipment , and the hospital couldn ’ t even afford to order tests .
Things got so bad at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up in garbage bags .
Hospital patients might have been able to get basic care and supplies , but the money wasn ’ t there .
Meanwhile , James Biden had allegedly made off with $ 650,000 .

The Bidens Got Into the Hospital Business and People Died
There wasn’t enough money for medication, tests, or sterilizing instruments, but lots of money for the Bidens.
The old slogan, “The Best of Care” can still be found on Ellwood City Medical Center’s old promotional materials. When the pandemic began, the old rural Rust Belt country where President Trump beat Hillary Clinton could have used a hospital. Any hospital.
There was even talk of reopening the defunct hospital again to treat coronavirus patients.
But, like so much in Pennsylvania, the Ellwood City Medical Center never recovered from the Democrats. The FBI raided it in January and the hospital lost its license next month. Not that it mattered at that point because the hospital had already been shut down since December.
Despite that, the hospital managed to score $1.8 million in coronavirus relief funds.
With no hospital, local residents face a trip if they’re injured. And if the injury is bad enough, they might not survive. The closed hospital in Pennsylvania is just another piece of the Biden legacy.
In the three years since Americore CEO Grant White was allegedly introduced by James Biden to Joe Biden at a fundraiser for the Beau Biden Foundation, a charity co-chaired by Hunter Biden whose laptop bearing the foundation’s sticker is at the center of a new scandal, there have been lawsuits, an FBI raid, and investigations in different cities and states.
“James Biden mentioned that his brother’s connections to labor unions and the Department of Veterans Affairs would help DMM expand its model nationwide,” a lawsuit filed by one company claims.
Mayor Anthony Court, a Democrat, recalls White constantly dropping Biden’s name.
White would later claim that Biden told him, “there’s not a single door in the country that we can’t open.”
James Biden, Joe’s brother, had become a principal at Americore whose business model was based on buying and turning around rural hospitals. But the turnaround was into the grave.
Obamacare had hit rural hospitals hard, forcing many of them to shut down. By Obama’s last year in office, 4% of rural hospitals had closed down, and hundreds more were on the brink. And the Bidens had figured out a way to profit from the devastation caused by Obama-Biden.
“His brother was very interested in rural health care and very interested in veterans’ health care, and it was something he really wanted to get behind,” an Americore executive recalled Biden telling him. “This would help his brother get elected.”
After Americore took over the Ellwood City Medical Center, it racked up over 40 citations from the Department of Health. Cardiovascular services were cut, the wound unit was closed, and access to its MRI machines was sidelined.
In 2018, James Biden was renovating his Americore office and demanding expensive furniture as part of an office that was described as a “little shrine to him and his brother and Obama.”
Utilities threatened to turn off the gas and the water at Ellwood. Instruments weren’t being sterilized because there was no equipment, and the hospital couldn’t even afford to order tests.
Things got so bad at the hospital that hazardous waste was just piling up in garbage bags.
Hospital patients might have been able to get basic care and supplies, but the money wasn’t there. Meanwhile, James Biden had allegedly made off with $650,000.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Why President Trump should have a huge lead on the night of the election

Does that headline surprise you ?
In this article , I am not predicting the eventual outcome of the presidential election .
Rather , I am going to discuss what is likely to happen based on which votes will be counted first .
Normally , Americans gather around their televisions on the evening of the election to watch the votes come in and the mainstream media declares a winner by the end of the night .
But it won ’ t be that way this time around .
More than 52 million Americans have already voted by mail in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rising with each passing day .
It is going to take extra time to count all of those mail-in ballots , and that is going to cause significant delays in getting final election results from many states .
According to a survey conducted by Pew Research , Trump supporters are more than twice as likely to vote in person on Election Day than Biden supporters are , and Biden supporters are more than twice as likely to vote by mail as Trump supporters are… This will be so important to keep in mind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election on the evening of November 3rd , because the votes that get counted first will determine which candidate is initially leading in each state .
According to Ballotpedia , there are 13 states which allow mail-in ballots to be counted early… And there are another 6 states that “ either do not specify when ballot counting can begin or leave the decision to the discretion of local officials ” … In these 19 states , the mail-in ballots and the early in person ballots will be the first votes counted , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is quite likely that Biden could jump out to large leads in red states like Oklahoma and Utah , but in the end he will not win either of those states .
On the other hand , there are 31 states that do not allow early counting of mail-in ballots .
In most of those states , the votes that are cast on Election Day will make up the bulk of the early results , and so the initial vote counts should favor President Trump in those cases .
This group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Michigan , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania .
As I have discussed previously , whoever wins Pennsylvania is probably going to win the election , and so we will want to pay special attention to what is going on there .
According to FiveThirtyEight , about two million mail-in ballots have already been returned in Pennsylvania , and officials will not even begin counting them until 7 AM on Election Day… Take Pennsylvania , arguably the most important swing state this election as it ’ s currently the likeliest “ tipping-point state ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could determine the winner of the Electoral College .
About 2 million mail-in ballots have already been returned so far , almost one-third of the total number of votes cast in the state four years ago .
But because the state can ’ t begin processing mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day , it could be awhile before we get full results in Pennsylvania .
State officials have said that it could take until Friday to finish counting most ballots .
I am quite skeptical that Pennsylvania will be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because it took them two and a half weeks to count all of the mail-in ballots for the Democratic primary earlier this year… I am sure that Pennsylvania is committing a lot more resources to the general election than they did to the primaries , but there will also be far more ballots to count for the general election .
In any event , President Trump should jump out to huge leads in Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin and other states where the counting of mail-in ballots will take an extended period of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous article , there are several steps that must be taken for each mail-in ballot , and counting them is a very tedious process .
I think that it was very foolish for so many states to push mail-in voting so heavily for this election , and I believe that it is going to cause some massive problems .
And it is also very important to remember that the states will not even have all of the mail-in ballots in their possession on November 3rd .
Ballots will continue to be accepted after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these various deadlines will continue to be the subject of legal battles for weeks to come .
In many instances , the U.S. Supreme Court will get involved .
In fact , they just ruled that Pennsylvania can accept mail-in ballots for up to three days after the election and that North Carolina can accept mail-in ballots for up to nine days after the election .
In a very , very tight race , we could potentially see the outcome decided by ballots that are not even received by North Carolina officials until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out , the better it will be for Biden .
But on the night of the election , President Trump should have a lead in the majority of the states .
Needless to say , that will likely cause a tremendous amount of turmoil on the left , and they will be desperately hoping that the counting of the mail-in ballots will eventually flip the election to Biden .

by Michael Snyder
Does that headline surprise you? In this article, I am not predicting the eventual outcome of the presidential election. Rather, I am going to discuss what is likely to happen based on which votes will be counted first. Normally, Americans gather around their televisions on the evening of the election to watch the votes come in and the mainstream media declares a winner by the end of the night. But it won’t be that way this time around. More than 52 million Americans have already voted by mail in this election, and that number will keep rising with each passing day. It is going to take extra time to count all of those mail-in ballots, and that is going to cause significant delays in getting final election results from many states.
According to a survey conducted by Pew Research, Trump supporters are more than twice as likely to vote in person on Election Day than Biden supporters are, and Biden supporters are more than twice as likely to vote by mail as Trump supporters are…
Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, 51% of Biden supporters say they plan to vote by mail or absentee (or have already voted this way). A quarter of Trump supporters (25%) say they plan to vote by mail or absentee.
This will be so important to keep in mind while you are watching coverage of the election on the evening of November 3rd, because the votes that get counted first will determine which candidate is initially leading in each state.
According to Ballotpedia, there are 13 states which allow mail-in ballots to be counted early…
Arizona
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Maryland
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Jersey
North Carolina
Oregon
Vermont
And there are another 6 states that “either do not specify when ballot counting can begin or leave the decision to the discretion of local officials”…
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Ohio
Oklahoma
Utah
In these 19 states, the mail-in ballots and the early in person ballots will be the first votes counted, and those votes will favor Biden.
Yes, it is quite likely that Biden could jump out to large leads in red states like Oklahoma and Utah, but in the end he will not win either of those states.
On the other hand, there are 31 states that do not allow early counting of mail-in ballots. In most of those states, the votes that are cast on Election Day will make up the bulk of the early results, and so the initial vote counts should favor President Trump in those cases.
This group of states includes the critical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. As I have discussed previously, whoever wins Pennsylvania is probably going to win the election, and so we will want to pay special attention to what is going on there.
According to FiveThirtyEight, about two million mail-in ballots have already been returned in Pennsylvania, and officials will not even begin counting them until 7 AM on Election Day…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Take Pennsylvania, arguably the most important swing state this election as it’s currently the likeliest “tipping-point state” in our forecast, or the state that could determine the winner of the Electoral College. About 2 million mail-in ballots have already been returned so far, almost one-third of the total number of votes cast in the state four years ago. But because the state can’t begin processing mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, it could be awhile before we get full results in Pennsylvania. State officials have said that it could take until Friday to finish counting most ballots.
I am quite skeptical that Pennsylvania will be able to count all the votes by Friday, because it took them two and a half weeks to count all of the mail-in ballots for the Democratic primary earlier this year…
In that election, the more rural and Republican-leaning parts of the state reported a sizable majority of their results on election night, as their votes were disproportionately cast on Election Day. In the state’s more populous and Democratic-leaning areas, it took roughly two and a half weeks to report most of the vote, due to the huge influx of mail-in ballots. As a result, on election night, 3 a.m. Eastern, only 46 percent of the final Democratic presidential primary vote had been reported, compared to 71 percent of the GOP total, based on data from ABC News.
I am sure that Pennsylvania is committing a lot more resources to the general election than they did to the primaries, but there will also be far more ballots to count for the general election.
In any event, President Trump should jump out to huge leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and other states where the counting of mail-in ballots will take an extended period of time.
As I discussed in a previous article, there are several steps that must be taken for each mail-in ballot, and counting them is a very tedious process.
I think that it was very foolish for so many states to push mail-in voting so heavily for this election, and I believe that it is going to cause some massive problems.
And it is also very important to remember that the states will not even have all of the mail-in ballots in their possession on November 3rd. Ballots will continue to be accepted after Election Day in many states, and these various deadlines will continue to be the subject of legal battles for weeks to come.
In many instances, the U.S. Supreme Court will get involved. In fact, they just ruled that Pennsylvania can accept mail-in ballots for up to three days after the election and that North Carolina can accept mail-in ballots for up to nine days after the election.
In a very, very tight race, we could potentially see the outcome decided by ballots that are not even received by North Carolina officials until November 12th.
The longer things drag out, the better it will be for Biden.
But on the night of the election, President Trump should have a lead in the majority of the states.
Needless to say, that will likely cause a tremendous amount of turmoil on the left, and they will be desperately hoping that the counting of the mail-in ballots will eventually flip the election to Biden.