investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--The S&P 500 Is More Concentrated Than Ever: Time To Short Some Tech Companies?

Look at this goddamn chart : imgur.com/gallery/scPTvaH Strong indicator that there is about to be a big drawn down of value among the top five .
But given the circumstances , how will it play out the next ten years ?
What will be the top five ten years from now ?
Amazon : Seems best positioned for success given e-commerce and cloud are their two biggest businesses .
Microsoft : Also looks to be on solid footing given cloud and collaboration apps .
Only company that was a top 5 in the early 2000s as well .
Has proven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Has a ton of cash on the sidelines but current outlook doesn ’ t look great , as people will probably delay buying new hardware for a year or two , or buy the cheaper options they are rolling out .
A lot of supply chain exposure to China , and we could see a lot of that brought back home for security / political / unemployment reasons , which will eat at their margins .
Google and Facebook : I think the least well positioned .
I work in digital advertising and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Search activity is almost directly tied to demand for products , and given this is a demand-side crisis that doesn ’ t bode well for Google .
Facebook might be in a better spot since people are glued to social media , which is an opportunity for creative advertisers to sell them shit .
The questions and setup are here .
Does this concentration last ?
Who falls out of the top five to short ?
Who replaces them ?
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ricenbeats
Look at this goddamn chart: imgur.com/gallery/scPTvaH
Strong indicator that there is about to be a big drawn down of value among the top five. But given the circumstances, how will it play out the next ten years? What will be the top five ten years from now?
Amazon: Seems best positioned for success given e-commerce and cloud are their two biggest businesses.
Microsoft: Also looks to be on solid footing given cloud and collaboration apps. Only company that was a top 5 in the early 2000s as well. Has proven it can reinvent itself.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Apple: Has a ton of cash on the sidelines but current outlook doesn’t look great, as people will probably delay buying new hardware for a year or two, or buy the cheaper options they are rolling out. A lot of supply chain exposure to China, and we could see a lot of that brought back home for security / political / unemployment reasons, which will eat at their margins.
Google and Facebook: I think the least well positioned. I work in digital advertising and am seeing budgets cut left and right. Search activity is almost directly tied to demand for products, and given this is a demand-side crisis that doesn’t bode well for Google. Facebook might be in a better spot since people are glued to social media, which is an opportunity for creative advertisers to sell them shit.
The questions and setup are here. Does this concentration last? Who falls out of the top five to short? Who replaces them?
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Dr Duc C. Vuong: New York City Surgeon Gives A REAL Update On COVID-19 Patients!

A third of this is q & a from the viewers warning : she goes full libtard in the last @

Very informational!
A third of this is q & a from the viewers
vaping
marijuana
diamox
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
etc
coughing up necrotic lung —- EWWWWWW
warning: she goes full libtard in the last quarter
AO


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Low yields and high stock prices are a recipe for disaster (if you are investing for retirement)

After a cliff-diving that saw markets in the US lose 35 % in 5 weeks–and then gain 30 % in 4 weeks ( recovering about 60 % of the losses ) .
Interest rates being driven to 0 % , infinite QE , etc… in the midst of the greatest health crisis in living memory ( I am young , and only lived through SARS [ coronavirus ] in its epicenter in south China , and H1N1 , and felt that those were nowhere near as bad ) , surging unemployment ( and substantial loss to income for most ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the average investor ?
I will tell you a story about annuities .
The Chinese Yuan ( ￥ ) is used in this discussion , as this annuity was purchased in China .
My mother was 33 , and took out an annuity for herself .
The premium is ￥920 a year , and she would pay 23 years , and started collecting ￥500/month at age 56 , and will continue to collect the same amount until she dies or the company goes out of business , whichever comes earlier .
If we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : well , what is ￥920 a year compounded at a 10 % annualized return for 23 years ?
That would have been ￥73 179 .
At 10 % annualized growth , the return would be ￥7 318/year , but ￥500 * 12 = ￥6 000 .
So , that meant the company that sold her the annuity thought that it can profit big time .
Except that is likely to be wrong .
Even though GDP growth had been above 10 % annualized for a long time , that growth had slowed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it just plunged to deep negative due to the coronavirus .
With extreme population aging and the lack of immigration , they are being Japanified at a horrifying speed .
To expect 10 % growth for another 20 years in the future is flat-out delusional ( average life expectancy of a woman is 77.6 years right now ) .
Sidenote : my sister is at the same age now as my mother was when the annuity was purchased .
I know for a fact that the annuity should be more than twice as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same payout , inflation adjusted or not .
So , what does this mean for the average investor ?
It is simple : if you live on $ 10 000 , then • when interest rates were 20 % , you needed $ 50 000 to retire • when interest rates were 10 % , you needed $ 100 000 to retire • when interest rates were 5 % , you needed $ 200 000 to retire • when interest rates were 2 % , you needed $ 500 000 to retire • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you need $ 666 666.66 to retire • when interest raes are 1 % , you need $ 1 000 000 to retire • when interest rates are 0.5 % , you need $ 2 000 000 to retire It doesn ’ t take a genius to realize that when interest rates are 0 % , you will never retire in absense of public pensions ( CPP/OAS in Canada and Social Security in the US ) .
Period .
Even at $ 1 million , it would take someone highly frugal 35 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million , it would be impossible for anyone making less than 6-figures to ever save up enough before dying of old age .
That means investing your entire portfolio in 30 year bonds and clip coupons is not really an option any more , no matter what your age is .
This brings me back to stocks .
In 2000 , the S & P 500 companies had $ 56.13 earnings per share , in 2001 , it plunged to $ 38.85 .
That was a 30.8 % collapse , and it took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the EPS was $ 82.54 , and in 2008 , it was $ 49.51 , a 40 % collapse–and the 2007 EPS was almost 6 % below 2006 .
It took until 2011 to recover to ( and surpass ) the 2006 peak .
Therefore , I posit that in 2020 , earnings will collapse from $ 162.35 to $ 113.65 or even $ 97.41 ( somewhere between a 30-40 % collapse ) and will not recover to 2019 levels until 2022 or even 2024 .
At $ 113.65 EPS and 2874 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the P/E ratio is 25.28 , and at $ 97.41 , that P/E becomes 29.5 .
If the average P/E ratio at the bottom of a bear market is 16.7 , then based on these earnings , S & P 500 should bottom out around 1625-1897 , which is somewhere between 300 and 560 points below the March 23 low .
People think that this crisis will pass quickly .
Err…no , and I will tell you why : Who will go to the malls , stadiums , airports ( even if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
You can catch COVID-19 and risk a 1 in 250 chance of dying within 1 month of catching it ( I pulled that statistic out of Germany ’ s ass ) .
If a substantial number of people are not going out and spending , then a lot of people who work in these industries will simply not have a job .
Unemployed people don ’ t spend any money on anything besides essentials like housing , food , clothing and transportation .
Also , once things open up , there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of infections .
China , Hong Kong and Singapore are places where this second wave is already happening .
A second wave will mean a second shutdown , inflicting more damage on the economy .
This would cause a greater collapse in earnings and stock prices .
This is absolutely horrific for any investor who is saving up for retirement .
This kind of stock market pump is merely a transfer of wealth from the prudent to the reckless , not necessarily from the poor to the rich ( some rich people can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Options positions planned ( in Canadian dollars ) , for both hedging and speculation of the coming financial crisis : Close positions when the banks go to 50 % of their all time highs , or if TSX goes below 9000 points .
If S & P TSX goes below 9000 , I will be all-in on XIU–and keep averaging down and go long on the Canadian market to oblivion .
I can even leverage myself to the hilt by buying calls and selling naked puts to avoid having to pay for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ net short the financial institutions starting next week because the mortgage and housing bubble will go bust like it did in 2008 in the United States .
Mortgage defaults will sweep the country like we haven ’ t seen since the 1980s .
Airbnb hosts who ran highly leveraged investments thinking they can get $ 3 000 a month in rent from each property are now going bust and will probably declare bankruptcy when no tourist goes to the cities , this puts downward pressure on residential real estate prices and rents .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ I want to make clear that I am not a permabear .
I will become a bull when the stock markets are cheap again .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by random20190826
After a cliff-diving that saw markets in the US lose 35% in 5 weeks–and then gain 30% in 4 weeks (recovering about 60% of the losses). Interest rates being driven to 0%, infinite QE, etc… in the midst of the greatest health crisis in living memory (I am young, and only lived through SARS [coronavirus] in its epicenter in south China, and H1N1, and felt that those were nowhere near as bad), surging unemployment (and substantial loss to income for most).
So, what does this leave the average investor? I will tell you a story about annuities. The Chinese Yuan (￥) is used in this discussion, as this annuity was purchased in China.
My mother was 33, and took out an annuity for herself. The premium is ￥920 a year, and she would pay 23 years, and started collecting ￥500/month at age 56, and will continue to collect the same amount until she dies or the company goes out of business, whichever comes earlier.
If we take a look at this and think: well, what is ￥920 a year compounded at a 10% annualized return for 23 years? That would have been ￥73 179. At 10% annualized growth, the return would be ￥7 318/year, but ￥500 * 12 = ￥6 000. So, that meant the company that sold her the annuity thought that it can profit big time. Except that is likely to be wrong. Even though GDP growth had been above 10% annualized for a long time, that growth had slowed to only 6%, and now it just plunged to deep negative due to the coronavirus. With extreme population aging and the lack of immigration, they are being Japanified at a horrifying speed. To expect 10% growth for another 20 years in the future is flat-out delusional (average life expectancy of a woman is 77.6 years right now).
Sidenote: my sister is at the same age now as my mother was when the annuity was purchased. I know for a fact that the annuity should be more than twice as expensive for her if she wants the same payout, inflation adjusted or not.
So, what does this mean for the average investor? It is simple: if you live on $10 000, then
when interest rates were 20%, you needed $50 000 to retire
when interest rates were 10%, you needed $100 000 to retire
when interest rates were 5%, you needed $200 000 to retire
when interest rates were 2%, you needed $500 000 to retire
(The 30 year US treasury yields less than 2%)
when interest rates are 1.5%, you need $666 666.66 to retire
when interest raes are 1%, you need $1 000 000 to retire
when interest rates are 0.5%, you need $2 000 000 to retire
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that when interest rates are 0%, you will never retire in absense of public pensions (CPP/OAS in Canada and Social Security in the US). Period. Even at $1 million, it would take someone highly frugal 35 years to save up. At $2 million, it would be impossible for anyone making less than 6-figures to ever save up enough before dying of old age. That means investing your entire portfolio in 30 year bonds and clip coupons is not really an option any more, no matter what your age is.
This brings me back to stocks. In 2000, the S&P 500 companies had $56.13 earnings per share, in 2001, it plunged to $38.85. That was a 30.8% collapse, and it took until 2004 to recover. In 2007, the EPS was $82.54, and in 2008, it was $49.51, a 40% collapse–and the 2007 EPS was almost 6% below 2006. It took until 2011 to recover to (and surpass) the 2006 peak.
Therefore, I posit that in 2020, earnings will collapse from $162.35 to $113.65 or even $97.41 (somewhere between a 30-40% collapse) and will not recover to 2019 levels until 2022 or even 2024. At $113.65 EPS and 2874 for the S&P 500, the P/E ratio is 25.28, and at $97.41, that P/E becomes 29.5. If the average P/E ratio at the bottom of a bear market is 16.7, then based on these earnings, S&P 500 should bottom out around 1625-1897, which is somewhere between 300 and 560 points below the March 23 low.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
People think that this crisis will pass quickly. Err…no, and I will tell you why:
Who will go to the malls, stadiums, airports (even if you have millions in your bank account)? You can catch COVID-19 and risk a 1 in 250 chance of dying within 1 month of catching it (I pulled that statistic out of Germany’s ass).
If a substantial number of people are not going out and spending, then a lot of people who work in these industries will simply not have a job. Unemployed people don’t spend any money on anything besides essentials like housing, food, clothing and transportation.
Also, once things open up, there is nearly guaranteed to be a second wave of infections. China, Hong Kong and Singapore are places where this second wave is already happening. A second wave will mean a second shutdown, inflicting more damage on the economy. This would cause a greater collapse in earnings and stock prices.
This is absolutely horrific for any investor who is saving up for retirement. This kind of stock market pump is merely a transfer of wealth from the prudent to the reckless, not necessarily from the poor to the rich (some rich people can be very conservative in their investments).
Options positions planned (in Canadian dollars), for both hedging and speculation of the coming financial crisis:
TD $55 2021/12/17 P
BMO $70 2021/12/17 P
CM $80 2021/12/17 P
RY $85 2021/12/17 P
BNS $55 2021/12/17 P
Close positions when the banks go to 50% of their all time highs, or if TSX goes below 9000 points.
If S&P TSX goes below 9000, I will be all-in on XIU–and keep averaging down and go long on the Canadian market to oblivion. I can even leverage myself to the hilt by buying calls and selling naked puts to avoid having to pay for the calls. But I will go net short the financial institutions starting next week because the mortgage and housing bubble will go bust like it did in 2008 in the United States. Mortgage defaults will sweep the country like we haven’t seen since the 1980s. Airbnb hosts who ran highly leveraged investments thinking they can get $3 000 a month in rent from each property are now going bust and will probably declare bankruptcy when no tourist goes to the cities, this puts downward pressure on residential real estate prices and rents.
Sorry for the long rant. But I want to make clear that I am not a permabear. I will become a bull when the stock markets are cheap again.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Tales From A NYC Small Business Owner

Tales From A NYC Small Business Owner

I am a small business owner in NYC .
My business is currently shutdown .
I run/ran a hospitality-based company .
This is my story .
TLDR : My business Bank didn ’ t accept applications for Paycheck Protection Program prior to funds running out .
Business interruption insurance doesn ’ t cover us because “ f*ck off ” .
Personal insurance doesn ’ t cover loss of use for the apartment I pay an insane rent , see also “ f*ck off , ” It ’ s hard to see how many small ( or large ) businesses could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market was trading at these levels .
Day -1 : Paycheck Protection program comes out the next day .
My bank says be on the lookout for PPP application online .
Maybe 3 am maybe 9 am .
I stay up all night waiting , portal never opens .
Day 1 : After no sleep and noon on first day of applications my bank says it will be open by tomorrow no worries things won ’ t run out of money Day 3 : Its Monday so IT geeks will get the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nope , send another email and banker says just one more day , don ’ t worry .
Day 7 : Its been one week since PPP opened , I send an email every day , bank sends an email back every day saying just one more day no worries .
PPP Runs out of funds : Bank Portal never opens , I ask business banker in email what I should do since they never allowed me to submit an application .
Business bankers stop responding .
Not their problem .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few million in their bank accounts so I deserve to f*ck off .
Business Interruption Insurance company : Sorry for the whole coronavirus thing but this isn ’ t covered in your policy because page 2,734 where it says F*ck Off .
Thanks for your insurance premium .
Personal Renter Insurance- “ I see you have a policy that covers loss of use for your apartment that you pay extra for .
That ’ s cute , but this doesn ’ t cover you .
F*ck off.
” Personal Apartment- Pay us rent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understanding More of the same from other business owners : I hop on weekly zoom calls with other NYC business owners .
More of the same .
We should all f*ck off .
With all that is going on it is hard to reconcile the current levels of the market with what is going on day-to-day in business .
Maybe I don ’ t get it .
Maybe I ’ m in a worse spot than most .
Or , maybe i ’ m just an Idiot .
But I can ’ t @ @ @ @ @

by andersondylan087
I am a small business owner in NYC. My business is currently shutdown. I run/ran a hospitality-based company.
This is my story.
TLDR: My business Bank didn’t accept applications for Paycheck Protection Program prior to funds running out. Business interruption insurance doesn’t cover us because “f*ck off”. Personal insurance doesn’t cover loss of use for the apartment I pay an insane rent, see also “f*ck off,” It’s hard to see how many small (or large) businesses could be in a spot similar to when the market was trading at these levels.
Day -1: Paycheck Protection program comes out the next day. My bank says be on the lookout for PPP application online. Maybe 3 am maybe 9 am. I stay up all night waiting, portal never opens.
Day 1: After no sleep and noon on first day of applications my bank says it will be open by tomorrow no worries things won’t run out of money
Day 3: Its Monday so IT geeks will get the site up and going for the bank. Nope, send another email and banker says just one more day, don’t worry.
Day 7: Its been one week since PPP opened, I send an email every day, bank sends an email back every day saying just one more day no worries.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
PPP Runs out of funds: Bank Portal never opens, I ask business banker in email what I should do since they never allowed me to submit an application. Business bankers stop responding. Not their problem. I am the idiot who only had a few million in their bank accounts so I deserve to f*ck off.
Meanwhile
Business Interruption Insurance company: Sorry for the whole coronavirus thing but this isn’t covered in your policy because page 2,734 where it says F*ck Off. Thanks for your insurance premium.
Personal Renter Insurance- “I see you have a policy that covers loss of use for your apartment that you pay extra for. That’s cute, but this doesn’t cover you. F*ck off.”
Personal Apartment- Pay us rent or we sue you. Thanks for understanding
More of the same from other business owners: I hop on weekly zoom calls with other NYC business owners. More of the same. We should all f*ck off.
With all that is going on it is hard to reconcile the current levels of the market with what is going on day-to-day in business.
Maybe I don’t get it. Maybe I’m in a worse spot than most. Or, maybe i’m just an Idiot. But I can’t be the only one.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Amazon to extend French warehouse closures after union dispute

So Amazon is definitively challenging the French way to treat US top tech companies ( see recent huge fines to @ @ @ @ @ We can expect it doesn ’ t end with this virus issue , it is @ @ @ @ @ strong positions against what they think is unfair treatment ( the majority of French e-shops @ @ @ @ @ ) .
How long until a US tech company decides to definitively move away from @ @ @ @ @ is acting quite the same way ?

So Amazon is definitively challenging the French way to treat US top tech companies (see recent huge fines to Google and Facebook). We can expect it doesn’t end with this virus issue, it is the first one to take strong positions against what they think is unfair treatment (the majority of French e-shops are permitted to remain open). How long until a US tech company decides to definitively move away from France or European Union which is acting quite the same way ?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-amazon-france/amazon-to-extend-french-warehouse-closures-after-union-dispute-idUSL8N2C70CY


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Weekly Short Ideas Series (4/19/2020)

Weekly Short Ideas Series (4/19/2020)

This is a curated list of the best short ideas published across the web .
I boil them down into easily digestible blurbs , summarized below .
I plan to do this as a weekly series .
Unfortunately automod is quite strict about external links , so I don ’ t always link directly to the original report , but a quick Google search should turn these up .
Thesis : SCWorx recently made news by announcing a massive deal ( $ 35M/week ) to purchase and resell COVID-19 tests , causing a rapid 434 % explosion in share price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is headquartered in a Regus rental office in NYC , its CEO previously pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion , and to cap it off , SCWorx ’ s supplier , Promedical , has a CEO who is a convicted rapist .
That ’ s just on the supplier front .
On the buyer front , SCWorx ’ s supposed $ 840M purchaser of test kits is a virtual healthcare company with just 3 employees listed online .
Thesis : Middleby Corp manufactures and distributes equipment predominately used in restaurants : ovens , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , blast chillers , etc .
This is a COVID-19 play based on forensic analysis of the company ’ s financials by Prescience Point .
In interviewing Middleby ’ s customers and competitors , Prescience Point estimates that demand for foodservice equipment is down 85 % .
Furthermore , as up to 15 % of all restaurants nationwide shut down permanently , the used equipment market will be flooded with supply .
Even before the global pandemic , Middleby ’ s prospects were stagnant at best with declining organic growth , but Wall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record numbers for 2021 .
Thesis : GSX provides online K-12 after-school tutoring services for Chinese students in various subjects such as English , Chinese , physics , chemistry , biology , history .
Citron is jumping on the “ China hustle ” bandwagon with other activist funds , claiming that up to 70 % of revenues are fabricated .
Citron went to the great length of paying programmers to discreetly attend 20 % of online classes offered and write scripts to capture web traffic , including the number of unique users online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found gross discrepancies between the actual and claimed number of active users .
They also find that GSX is rarely mentioned in local media , despite allegedly being one of the fastest growing companies in the online education sector .
Short call by : unbiasedobserver on 2/24/2020 ( but became public on 4/9/2020 ) Thesis : Rubicon is an adtech company that automates the buying and selling of digital ads .
User unbiasedobserver points out three main catalysts that could spell trouble for the company .
First , he notes that Rubicon currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is more than double that of other industries : investment banking , real estate , etc.
, and he expects this to collapse in line with other industries .
Second , Chrome browser is phasing out third-party cookies in two years , which devastates Rubicon ’ s intelligence and ad analytics capabilities .
Finally , California ’ s Consumer Privacy Act goes into effect July 1st and places strict requirements on companies who sell consumer data .
An analogous scenario might be Europe ’ s GDPR , which caused half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of business .
Thesis : eHealth bills itself as the “ Expedia for health insurance ” , allowing consumers to analyze , compare , and buy health insurance plans through its web applications .
Muddy Waters alleges that eHealth is going with the good old tech darling strategy of losing money per customer , but making up for it in volume .
eHealth began aggressive TV marketing spend in 2018 and 2019 , decreasing the loyalty of their customer base and increasing the churn rate .
Suspiciously , eHealth ’ s LTV ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavily weight the year 2017 , the year before the churn rate increased .
Substituting their own more conservative formula to calculate LTV , Muddy Waters estimates that eHealth loses $ 402 per MA ( Medicare advantage ) member .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by 35nakedshorts
This is a curated list of the best short ideas published across the web. I boil them down into easily digestible blurbs, summarized below. I plan to do this as a weekly series. Unfortunately automod is quite strict about external links, so I don’t always link directly to the original report, but a quick Google search should turn these up.
Company: SCWorx Corp (WORX)
Short call by: Hindenburg Research on 4/17/2020
Thesis: SCWorx recently made news by announcing a massive deal ($35M/week) to purchase and resell COVID-19 tests, causing a rapid 434% explosion in share price. Hindenburg points out that the company is headquartered in a Regus rental office in NYC, its CEO previously pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion, and to cap it off, SCWorx’s supplier, Promedical, has a CEO who is a convicted rapist. That’s just on the supplier front. On the buyer front, SCWorx’s supposed $840M purchaser of test kits is a virtual healthcare company with just 3 employees listed online.

Company: Middleby Corp. (MIDD)
Short call by: Prescience Point on 4/15/2020
Thesis: Middleby Corp manufactures and distributes equipment predominately used in restaurants: ovens, ranges, fryers, rethermalizers, refrigerators, blast chillers, etc. This is a COVID-19 play based on forensic analysis of the company’s financials by Prescience Point. In interviewing Middleby’s customers and competitors, Prescience Point estimates that demand for foodservice equipment is down 85%. Furthermore, as up to 15% of all restaurants nationwide shut down permanently, the used equipment market will be flooded with supply. Even before the global pandemic, Middleby’s prospects were stagnant at best with declining organic growth, but Wall Street consensus bewilderingly expects Middleby to post record numbers for 2021.

Company: GSX Techedu Inc (GSX)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Short call by: Citron Research on 4/14/2020
Thesis: GSX provides online K-12 after-school tutoring services for Chinese students in various subjects such as English, Chinese, physics, chemistry, biology, history. Citron is jumping on the “China hustle” bandwagon with other activist funds, claiming that up to 70% of revenues are fabricated. Citron went to the great length of paying programmers to discreetly attend 20% of online classes offered and write scripts to capture web traffic, including the number of unique users online. Using this sampling methodology, they found gross discrepancies between the actual and claimed number of active users. They also find that GSX is rarely mentioned in local media, despite allegedly being one of the fastest growing companies in the online education sector.

Company: Rubicon Project Inc (RUBI)
Short call by: unbiasedobserver on 2/24/2020 (but became public on 4/9/2020)
Thesis: Rubicon is an adtech company that automates the buying and selling of digital ads. User unbiasedobserver points out three main catalysts that could spell trouble for the company. First, he notes that Rubicon currently earns a sell-side commission of 13%, which is more than double that of other industries: investment banking, real estate, etc., and he expects this to collapse in line with other industries. Second, Chrome browser is phasing out third-party cookies in two years, which devastates Rubicon’s intelligence and ad analytics capabilities. Finally, California’s Consumer Privacy Act goes into effect July 1st and places strict requirements on companies who sell consumer data. An analogous scenario might be Europe’s GDPR, which caused half of third party data vendors to go out of business.

Company: eHealth Inc. (EHTH)
Short call by: Muddy Waters on 4/8/2020
Thesis: eHealth bills itself as the “Expedia for health insurance”, allowing consumers to analyze, compare, and buy health insurance plans through its web applications. Muddy Waters alleges that eHealth is going with the good old tech darling strategy of losing money per customer, but making up for it in volume. eHealth began aggressive TV marketing spend in 2018 and 2019, decreasing the loyalty of their customer base and increasing the churn rate. Suspiciously, eHealth’s LTV (lifetime value) formula was adjusted to heavily weight the year 2017, the year before the churn rate increased. Substituting their own more conservative formula to calculate LTV, Muddy Waters estimates that eHealth loses $402 per MA (Medicare advantage) member.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--For the past three months this guy has been writing article after article saying to buy oil. He’s fi

For the past three months this guy has been writing article after article saying to buy oil. He’s finally decided to NOT buy oil.

tl ; dr Do the inverse of everything this analyst says .
Now ’ s probably the time to buy oil .
So this guy has been almost consistently wrong telling everyone to buy oil in the past 3 months , and only last week did he finally say to NOT BUY oil ( right away ) .
Most of his articles are behind a paywall , but honestly all you need is the title .
Jan 4 ( Oil $ 63.27 ) – UWT : It Is Time To Buy Crude Oil Jan 7 ( Oil $ 62.70 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shine In 2020 Jan 11 ( Oil $ 59.04 ) – USL : Likely To Rally Through 2020 Jan 14 ( Oil $ 58.23 ) – DBO : Prepare For More Upside In Crude Oil Jan 17 ( Oil $ 58.56 ) – OLEM : Likely To Rise On Oil Supply Risks Jan 19 ( Oil $ 58.56 ) – DWT : Still Not Time To Short Oil Jan 21 ( Oil $ 58.37 ) – OILU : Prepare For The Rally In Crude Oil Feb 16 ( Oil $ 52.15 , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bottom Is Likely In Feb 19 ( Oil $ 53.41 , end of dead cat bounce ) – USL : Buy The Dip In Crude Oil Mar 2 ( Oil $ 46.75 ) – DBO : An Oil ETF For Times Like These Apr 7 ( Oil $ 23.63 ) – OIL : Wait For OPEC+ Before Buying Crude .
If you actually bought oil right after the OPEC+ meeting , you would have bought oil at $ 27 .
Apr 16 ( Oil $ 21 ) – Here ’ s What To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says to wait a few weeks before deciding whether to buy oil or not .
As of this time , WTI crude oil prices are at $ 18.27 .
Could they fall further ?
Maybe a little , but if the track record of this author is anything to go by , I doubt prices will stay this low for too long .
He ’ s definitely introduced a lot of neat oil ETFs though .
Still learned a lot from his articles .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by adayofjoy
tl;dr Do the inverse of everything this analyst says. Now’s probably the time to buy oil.
So this guy has been almost consistently wrong telling everyone to buy oil in the past 3 months, and only last week did he finally say to NOT BUY oil (right away). Most of his articles are behind a paywall, but honestly all you need is the title.
Jan 4 (Oil $63.27) – UWT: It Is Time To Buy Crude Oil
Jan 7 (Oil $62.70) – OIL: Prepare For Oil To Shine In 2020
Jan 9 (Oil $59.56) – USOI: A Golden Time To Hold This Oil ETN
Jan 11 (Oil $59.04) – USL: Likely To Rally Through 2020
Jan 14 (Oil $58.23) – DBO: Prepare For More Upside In Crude Oil
Jan 17 (Oil $58.56) – OLEM: Likely To Rise On Oil Supply Risks
Jan 19 (Oil $58.56) – DWT: Still Not Time To Short Oil
Jan 21 (Oil $58.37) – OILU: Prepare For The Rally In Crude Oil
Jan 29 (Oil $53.33) – USO: Buy The Pullback
Jan 31 (Oil $51.56) – OIL: Buy The Bottom In Crude
Feb 6 (Oil $50.95) – DBO: Fade The Crowd And Buy Crude Oil
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Feb 11 (Oil $49.94) – OILX: It’s Time To Buy Crude Oil
Feb 16 (Oil $52.15, it rose!) – USO: The Bottom Is Likely In
Feb 19 (Oil $53.41, end of dead cat bounce) – USL: Buy The Dip In Crude Oil
Feb 21 (Oil $53.38) – OIL: Buy The Dip In Crude
Feb 27 (Oil $47.09) – UWT: Buy The Bottom In Crude Oil
Mar 2 (Oil $46.75) – DBO: An Oil ETF For Times Like These
Mar 5 (Oil $45.90) – BNO: Buy Brent And Profit From OPEC
Mar 21 (Oil $23.36) – USOI: A Strong Buy During Oil Turbulence
Apr 7 (Oil $23.63) – OIL: Wait For OPEC+ Before Buying Crude. If you actually bought oil right after the OPEC+ meeting, you would have bought oil at $27.
Apr 16 (Oil $21) – Here’s What To Watch Before Buying DBO. He finally says to wait a few weeks before deciding whether to buy oil or not.
As of this time, WTI crude oil prices are at $18.27. Could they fall further? Maybe a little, but if the track record of this author is anything to go by, I doubt prices will stay this low for too long.
He’s definitely introduced a lot of neat oil ETFs though. Still learned a lot from his articles.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--China: Leaked Documents From Wuhan Reveal Scale of Virus Data Coverup

Leaked Documents From District Authorities in Wuhan Reveal Scale of Virus Data Coverup The Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) virus , commonly known as the novel coronavirus , first emerged in Wuhan .
Experts who conducted statistical modeling , eyewitness accounts from locals , and documents previously provided to The Epoch Times have shown that Chinese authorities concealed the true scale of the outbreak in Wuhan and other parts of China .
The latest documents reveal how deception began at the low levels of government .
Real Numbers ?
There are 13 districts in Wuhan .
As Huangpi district @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outbreak there should be less severe than denser parts of the city .
But in 20 classified documents from the Huangpi district health bureau , data revealed that the district alone had many patients hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms—making the publicly reported data by the Wuhan Health Commission likely false .
Every day , district health bureaus fill out a statistic form issued by the Wuhan Health Commission to report total CCP virus cases within their jurisdiction .
These numbers are not disclosed to the public ; Wuhan only publishes a total for @ @ @ @

Leaked Documents From District Authorities in Wuhan Reveal Scale of Virus Data Coverup
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus, commonly known as the novel coronavirus, first emerged in Wuhan.
Experts who conducted statistical modeling, eyewitness accounts from locals, and documents previously provided to The Epoch Times have shown that Chinese authorities concealed the true scale of the outbreak in Wuhan and other parts of China.
The latest documents reveal how deception began at the low levels of government.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Real Numbers?
There are 13 districts in Wuhan. As Huangpi district is a residential section of Wuhan, the outbreak there should be less severe than denser parts of the city.
But in 20 classified documents from the Huangpi district health bureau, data revealed that the district alone had many patients hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms—making the publicly reported data by the Wuhan Health Commission likely false.
Every day, district health bureaus fill out a statistic form issued by the Wuhan Health Commission to report total CCP virus cases within their jurisdiction. These numbers are not disclosed to the public; Wuhan only publishes a total for the entire city.
www.ntd.com/leaked-documents-from-district-authorities-in-wuhan-reveal-scale-of-virus-data-coverup_454596.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Gasoline Is Selling for 12 Cents a Gallon and Nobody Wants It

( Bloomberg ) — In Fargo , North Dakota , cheap fuel has never been so unwelcome .
The Midwestern city is so awash in gasoline , the fuel last week sold for a record 12 cents a gallon at the rack — its last stop before the pump .
In better times , the price dip would be a boon for gas station owners looking to snag low-cost supplies .
But with fewer customers every day , gas pumps are becoming little more than makeshift storage for ballooning inventories .
“ Our gasoline business has been cut in half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manager at family-owned RJ ’ s Gas Station near Fargo .
Across town , Shaun Lugert estimates that sales at the station he owns have tumbled 80 % in a month .
“ The biggest part for us that has been so hard is the unknown , ” he said by phone .
“ It ’ s been kind of a roller coaster.
” The slump in rack prices , which are typically stable due to intense competition among distributors , is the latest sign that the coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American gasoline consumption fell to the lowest level on record last week as lockdowns take drivers off the road while gasoline stockpiles rose to a record high .
That ’ s caused rack prices across the U.S to collapse .
Milwaukee this week beat out Fargo for the lowest price in the nation .
“ The local racks are just inundated with material , ” said Patrick De Haan , head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy .
Some refineries may even be selling gasoline “ at a break even or even a loss @ @ @ @ @

(Bloomberg) — In Fargo, North Dakota, cheap fuel has never been so unwelcome.
The Midwestern city is so awash in gasoline, the fuel last week sold for a record 12 cents a gallon at the rack — its last stop before the pump. In better times, the price dip would be a boon for gas station owners looking to snag low-cost supplies. But with fewer customers every day, gas pumps are becoming little more than makeshift storage for ballooning inventories.
“Our gasoline business has been cut in half,” said David Olson, general manager at family-owned RJ’s Gas Station near Fargo. Across town, Shaun Lugert estimates that sales at the station he owns have tumbled 80% in a month. “The biggest part for us that has been so hard is the unknown,” he said by phone. “It’s been kind of a roller coaster.”
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The slump in rack prices, which are typically stable due to intense competition among distributors, is the latest sign that the coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on every aspect of the fuel market. American gasoline consumption fell to the lowest level on record last week as lockdowns take drivers off the road while gasoline stockpiles rose to a record high. That’s caused rack prices across the U.S to collapse. Milwaukee this week beat out Fargo for the lowest price in the nation.
finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-…00541.html
“The local racks are just inundated with material,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Some refineries may even be selling gasoline “at a break even or even a loss,” he said.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--‘Live Free or Die’: Protesters march against California stay-at-home rules in Huntington Beach

A group of more than 100 protesters converged on Huntington Beach on Friday in a demonstration against California ’ s coronavirus stay-at-home rules , part of a series of national demonstrations organized by conservative groups .
The protesters — some with Trump banners and American flags — mostly were not wearing masks or practicing social distancing by standing at least six feet apart .
And they offered views about the spread of the coronavirus that differed sharply from scientific findings and experts ’ recommendations .
One of the first people to trickle into the afternoon ’ s protest in Huntington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Costa Mesa resident arrived with a hand-held American flag and a “ Live Free or Die Sign ” and was “ sick ” of social distancing and Gov .
Gavin Newsom ’ s stay-at-home order , which she said was “ killing business.
” “ I don ’ t think there ’ s any reason for us to be on lockdown now , ” she said shortly after arguing with another Trump supporter who was in favor of quarantine .
“ We didn ’ t have any dangers ; we have no danger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The comments of protesters fly in the face of what California public health officials and other experts have been saying about the coronavirus .
California ’ s relatively quick action to close businesses and order residents to stay home has tamped down the coronavirus pandemic and left many hospitals largely empty , waiting for a surge that has yet to come .

A group of more than 100 protesters converged on Huntington Beach on Friday in a demonstration against California’s coronavirus stay-at-home rules, part of a series of national demonstrations organized by conservative groups.
The protesters — some with Trump banners and American flags — mostly were not wearing masks or practicing social distancing by standing at least six feet apart. And they offered views about the spread of the coronavirus that differed sharply from scientific findings and experts’ recommendations.
One of the first people to trickle into the afternoon’s protest in Huntington Beach was 62-year-old Paula Doyle.
The Costa Mesa resident arrived with a hand-held American flag and a “Live Free or Die Sign” and was “sick” of social distancing and Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order, which she said was “killing business.”
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“I don’t think there’s any reason for us to be on lockdown now,” she said shortly after arguing with another Trump supporter who was in favor of quarantine. “We didn’t have any dangers; we have no danger in our hospitals now of overflowing.”
The comments of protesters fly in the face of what California public health officials and other experts have been saying about the coronavirus.
California’s relatively quick action to close businesses and order residents to stay home has tamped down the coronavirus pandemic and left many hospitals largely empty, waiting for a surge that has yet to come.
www.latimes.com/california/story…oronavirus


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--TA may be meaningless right now, but it shows a big week ahead

From a TA perspective this should be a pivotal week , as we are now approaching 3 separate levels of resistance : • In our initial downturn , we hit the 2860 level as a low on 02/28 where it acted as support .
We then hit it again as a high ( 2880 ) on 03/10 , where it flipped and acted as resistance .
We haven ’ t been back since until this past Friday .
• Friday was also the first time since 02/21 that the S & P was not below the 50 day moving average… @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is also represented by the MACD crossing the 0 axis .
• The higher highs and higher lows of the upswing that started on 03/24 haven ’ t formed a parallel channel , but rather a narrowing triangle .
The trend lines of this triangle are set to intersect by the end of this week .
If we break through these 3 levels of resistance , the next level up would be around 3130 .
If we bounce off , the next support levels would be around 2630 and 2460 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ face of a black swan event where the news changes daily and the fed is printing unprecedented amounts of money… but I still feel like this will be a pivotal week .
I personally think the retracement from the lows was too optimistic , and we ’ ll be headed back towards the 2630 and 2460 support levels .
Trying to pick a few good short positions for the week .

by BattletoadRash
From a TA perspective this should be a pivotal week, as we are now approaching 3 separate levels of resistance:
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In our initial downturn, we hit the 2860 level as a low on 02/28 where it acted as support. We then hit it again as a high (2880) on 03/10, where it flipped and acted as resistance. We haven’t been back since until this past Friday. Friday was also the first time since 02/21 that the S&P was not below the 50 day moving average… we hit it right on the button. This is also represented by the MACD crossing the 0 axis. The higher highs and higher lows of the upswing that started on 03/24 haven’t formed a parallel channel, but rather a narrowing triangle. The trend lines of this triangle are set to intersect by the end of this week.
If we break through these 3 levels of resistance, the next level up would be around 3130. If we bounce off, the next support levels would be around 2630 and 2460.
TA may not mean much in the face of a black swan event where the news changes daily and the fed is printing unprecedented amounts of money… but I still feel like this will be a pivotal week. I personally think the retracement from the lows was too optimistic, and we’ll be headed back towards the 2630 and 2460 support levels. Trying to pick a few good short positions for the week.
we don't have sports to watch, but the match up between the Bulls and the Bears this week in Mid-caps is going to be one for the ages $MDY pic.twitter.com/VQ27SScGHB — J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) April 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Companies currently with Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates in Phase I clinical trials

There are dozens of other vaccine candidates in development : Of the confirmed active vaccine candidates , 56 ( 72 @ @ @ @ @ by private/industry developers , with the remaining 22 ( 28 % ) of projects being @ @ @ @ @ sector and other non-profit organizations .
Although a number of large multinational vaccine developers ( @ @ @ @ @ , Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKine ) have engaged in COVID-19 vaccine development , many of the @ @ @ @ @ inexperienced in large-scale vaccine manufacture .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes @ @ @ @ @ investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence @

by goodDayM
Source: The COVID-19 vaccine development landscape (nature.com)
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Developer Candidate Vaccine Characteristics Status Moderna mRNA-1273 LNP-encapsulated mRNA vaccine encoding S protein Phase I (NCT04283461) CanSino Biologicals Ad5-nCoV Adenovirus type 5 vector that expresses S protein Phase I (NCT04313127) Inovio Pharmaceuticals INO-4800 DNA plasmid encoding S protein delivered by electroporation Phase I (NCT04336410) Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute LV-SMENP-DC DCs modified with lentiviral vector expressing synthetic minigene based on domains of selected viral proteins; administered with antigen-specific CTLs Phase I (NCT04276896) Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute Pathogen-specific aAPC aAPCs modified with lentiviral vector expressing synthetic minigene based on domains of selected viral proteins Phase I (NCT04299724)
There are dozens of other vaccine candidates in development:
Of the confirmed active vaccine candidates, 56 (72%) are being developed by private/industry developers, with the remaining 22 (28%) of projects being led by academic, public sector and other non-profit organizations. Although a number of large multinational vaccine developers (such as Janssen, Sanofi, Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKine) have engaged in COVID-19 vaccine development, many of the lead developers are small and/or inexperienced in large-scale vaccine manufacture.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Going Short Is Now American II

Going Short Is Now American II

Your name is Jim , born and raised in America , went to Stanford University for business .
You have a good heart and an entrepreneurial spirit .
You recently graduated and it ’ s 2012 .
You notice that average folk are financially illiterate beyond comprehension .
This is an opportunity for you to create a financial app to help regular people save and invest .
Fast forward to March 2019 and your app has exploded .
Office in New York City , 1 billion USD under management with an average account size of $ 6,200 .
Your responsible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every market dip .
Meanwhile , across the street , a meeting is going on at a big bank .
Chad shouts “ I want 57 billion ” .
The room goes silent .
Everyone in the boardroom laughs , including Chad .
Chad then snorts a line of coke and gets serious .
He says “ give me 285 billion , fill or kill ” .
The deal gets done immediately .
Chad just bought swaps betting that Jim ’ s clients return 30 % over the next three years .
Big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in derivatives betting on Jim ’ s investing performance .
Yes , that is right .
4 trillion betting on a 1 billion fund .
It ’ s February 2020 and Corona Virus hits .
Jamie Dimon has a meeting with JPow .
Jamie Dimon is sweating , he is telling JPow that banks are starting to offload their swaps .
Even though Jim is a responsible investor , no one thinks he can make a return during a pandemic .
JPow shoves a hooker off his lap and winks at Jamie Dimon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He tells him to sell the swaps and that the Fed will provide a market for them .
That night JPow takes too much Adderall .
He accidentally printed an extra 500 billion .
He knows that he can ’ t give it to small business wage slaves like Tim ’ s clients .
That will cause inflation .
Instead he phones Dimon and tells him to get Wells Fargo to price the swaps .
Dimon is not dumb and smiles .
“ I love you Daddy ” says Dimon and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wells Fargo ends up pricing the assets to sell to the Fed at a massive premium .
The Fed does not care because it is risk free for them .
The bankers who owned the swaps should have taken a massive loss in theory , yet they all walked away with fat pockets .
Jim , being a responsible investor envisioned the massive stock market decline before it happened .
He went 80 % cash , 10 % short airlines , and 10 % short SPY .
His fund earned a small return @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 255 million .
His clients are average folk and can barely feed their kids after becoming unemployed .
They had to pull out savings to cover the cost of food .

by JimCramerSober
Your name is Jim, born and raised in America, went to Stanford University for business. You have a good heart and an entrepreneurial spirit. You recently graduated and it’s 2012. You notice that average folk are financially illiterate beyond comprehension. This is an opportunity for you to create a financial app to help regular people save and invest.
Fast forward to March 2019 and your app has exploded. Office in New York City, 1 billion USD under management with an average account size of $6,200. Your responsible investing team has even protected profits during every market dip.
Meanwhile, across the street, a meeting is going on at a big bank. Chad shouts “I want 57 billion”. The room goes silent. Everyone in the boardroom laughs, including Chad. Chad then snorts a line of coke and gets serious. He says “give me 285 billion, fill or kill”. The deal gets done immediately.
Chad just bought swaps betting that Jim’s clients return 30% over the next three years. Big players currently have over 4 trillion USD in derivatives betting on Jim’s investing performance. Yes, that is right. 4 trillion betting on a 1 billion fund.
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It’s February 2020 and Corona Virus hits. Jamie Dimon has a meeting with JPow. Jamie Dimon is sweating, he is telling JPow that banks are starting to offload their swaps. Even though Jim is a responsible investor, no one thinks he can make a return during a pandemic. JPow shoves a hooker off his lap and winks at Jamie Dimon. He tells him everything is ok. He tells him to sell the swaps and that the Fed will provide a market for them.
That night JPow takes too much Adderall. He accidentally printed an extra 500 billion. He knows that he can’t give it to small business wage slaves like Tim’s clients. That will cause inflation. Instead he phones Dimon and tells him to get Wells Fargo to price the swaps. Dimon is not dumb and smiles. “I love you Daddy” says Dimon and they both hang up. THE END.
EPILOGUE:
Wells Fargo ends up pricing the assets to sell to the Fed at a massive premium. The Fed does not care because it is risk free for them. The bankers who owned the swaps should have taken a massive loss in theory, yet they all walked away with fat pockets.
Jim, being a responsible investor envisioned the massive stock market decline before it happened. He went 80% cash, 10% short airlines, and 10% short SPY. His fund earned a small return, yet he saw net outflows of 255 million. His clients are average folk and can barely feed their kids after becoming unemployed. They had to pull out savings to cover the cost of food.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Alasdair Macleod: Currency destruction is coming this year … Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Is the next G

Alasdair Macleod : Currency destruction is coming this year … Danielle DiMartino-Booth : Is the next Great Depression here ?
@ @ @ @ @ on the Joe Rogan Show … McAlvany : Living in the long emergency … Max @ @ @ @ @ ’ t print a supply chain …

BY JOHN RUBINO
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Alasdair Macleod: Currency destruction is coming this year … Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Is the next Great Depression here? … Classic 2019 Matt Tiabbi on the Joe Rogan Show … McAlvany: Living in the long emergency … Max Keiser: The Fed can’t print a supply chain …


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Credit Suisse view on the S&P500

Credit Suisse view on the S&P500

The S & P 500 is showing signs of stalling as expected at the beginning of our flagged resistance/objective , seen stating at 2855 and stretching up to 2934 – the 61.8 % retracement of the Q1 collapse .
Although the market fell yesterday , volume was actually muted and this suggests that even if our view is correct that strength is corrective and we should be looking for signs of a top , this process may take a while .
Notwithstanding this though we look for a retest of gap support at 2763/62 , below which should see a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accelerated uptrend at 2726/21 .
We need to see a move below here though to confirm a near-term top , with support then seen next at the 13-day average at 2689 .
Immediate resistance moves to 2802/05 , above which can see a move back to 2833 , potentially a retest of 2852/55 .
Above here can see strength extend to 2883 , potentially 2934 , but with our “ ideal ” road map remains for the market to set a fresh top in this zone .
It is worth noting though a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would still be consistent with a corrective move higher , although this would be the maximum we would allow for .
The recovery is showing signs of failure as expected at the beginning of tough resistance seen starting at 2855 and stretching up to 2934 – the 61.8 % retracement of the Q1 collapse – and we continue to look for evidence of a top .
Key near-term support is at 2726/21 .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ due diligence .

by BlueTreeCloud
The S&P 500 is showing signs of stalling as expected at the beginning of our flagged resistance/objective, seen stating at 2855 and stretching up to 2934 – the 61.8% retracement of the Q1 collapse. Although the market fell yesterday, volume was actually muted and this suggests that even if our view is correct that strength is corrective and we should be looking for signs of a top, this process may take a while. Notwithstanding this though we look for a retest of gap support at 2763/62, below which should see a test of the low from Monday and accelerated uptrend at 2726/21. We need to see a move below here though to confirm a near-term top, with support then seen next at the 13-day average at 2689.
Immediate resistance moves to 2802/05, above which can see a move back to 2833, potentially a retest of 2852/55. Above here can see strength extend to 2883, potentially 2934, but with our “ideal” road map remains for the market to set a fresh top in this zone. It is worth noting though a move to the 200-day average at 3014 would still be consistent with a corrective move higher, although this would be the maximum we would allow for.
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The recovery is showing signs of failure as expected at the beginning of tough resistance seen starting at 2855 and stretching up to 2934 – the 61.8% retracement of the Q1 collapse – and we continue to look for evidence of a top. Key near-term support is at 2726/21.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--SARS 2003 Vaccine Failures & COVID-19 Parallels

Thesis : Previous failures at attempting to develop a SARS 2003 vaccine combined with COVID-19 ’ s increased transmission rate will permanently alter society and economic output for years .
“ These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV .
However , challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced .
Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated.
” • We have never successfully vaccinated against a corona virus .
COVID-2019 is a highly transmittable diseases while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to contain .
“ With SARS , most human-to-human infections occurred in health care settings that lacked robust infection control procedures .
When infection control practices were implemented , the outbreak ended .
Since then , the only occurrences have occurred through laboratory accidents .
They have not spread throughout the community .
COVID-19 appears to spread person-to-person , through droplets that are expelled when a person coughs or sneezes and then are inhaled by a nearby person .
Less often , it may be spread by touching an infected surface and then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or eyes .
Transmission may also occur before a person becomes symptomatic ” Now you may be thinking ?
Market is mooning shut the fuck up .
Hey , can ’ t fight the trend I personally will ride the momentum…just remember this is short sided thinking…the FED has never lost a battle yet .
It also has never had an adversary quite like this ; COVID-19 having the ability to permanently alter society and reduce economic productivity for a VERY long period of time .
Florida reopens , more states to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perfect spot to go through another shock and awe period .
Remember by no means think this is a short term play , ride the FED pump and bullish euphoria up to its highest levels .
The second you start seeing headlines and hints of a second wave you put everything you have into shorting everything that requires a face to face interaction or a grouping of people ( hotels , restaurants , retail , leasure , etc ) .
Amazon and the digital market players will MOON .
Herp .
Derp .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ not fixing them .
The virus can ’ t be vaccinated against and it ’ s much more transmittable than anything we have dealt with before .
Long term impacts not showing yet .
Bears remember this acronym it will be used a lot : AED “ antibody dependent enhancement ” google it

by CalculatedRoulette
Thesis : Previous failures at attempting to develop a SARS 2003 vaccine combined with COVID-19’s increased transmission rate will permanently alter society and economic output for years.
Results from SARS 2003 trials were grim.
“These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV. However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced. Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated.”
DEADLY FAILURE
SARS 2003 Vaccine Candidate Results
We have never successfully vaccinated against a corona virus. COVID-2019 is a highly transmittable diseases while its little brother SARS 2003 was easy to contain.
“With SARS, most human-to-human infections occurred in health care settings that lacked robust infection control procedures. When infection control practices were implemented, the outbreak ended. Since then, the only occurrences have occurred through laboratory accidents. They have not spread throughout the community.
COVID-19 appears to spread person-to-person, through droplets that are expelled when a person coughs or sneezes and then are inhaled by a nearby person. Less often, it may be spread by touching an infected surface and then touching one’s mouth, nose, or eyes. Transmission may also occur before a person becomes symptomatic”
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SARS 2003 v COVID-19 Comparison
Now you may be thinking? Market is mooning shut the fuck up. Hey, can’t fight the trend I personally will ride the momentum…just remember this is short sided thinking…the FED has never lost a battle yet. It also has never had an adversary quite like this; COVID-19 having the ability to permanently alter society and reduce economic productivity for a VERY long period of time. Florida reopens, more states to follow…and TRUMP has put us in the perfect spot to go through another shock and awe period. Remember by no means think this is a short term play, ride the FED pump and bullish euphoria up to its highest levels. The second you start seeing headlines and hints of a second wave you put everything you have into shorting everything that requires a face to face interaction or a grouping of people (hotels, restaurants, retail, leasure, etc). Amazon and the digital market players will MOON.
Now Playing : Future – Mask Off
Herp. Derp. Probably lots of typos I’m not fixing them. The virus can’t be vaccinated against and it’s much more transmittable than anything we have dealt with before. Long term impacts not showing yet.
Bears remember this acronym it will be used a lot : AED “antibody dependent enhancement” google it
Don’t bet on vaccine, says global health expert


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--How Big banks manipulated Payroll Protection Program to benefit their preferred client

There are lot of Businesses applied for PPP with proper documents and did not get funds because of non-transparent Bank Process and handling .
Here is my experience .
Please share your experience and help others in gaining info .
• Got email to upload documents on 6th April and uploaded documents 941 , W2 2019s and Payroll feb 2020 .
Log into IntraLinks and upload the required documents : • Payroll processor records for the period including February 15 , 2020 • Payroll tax filings for 2019 • On 15th April , got email from bank We need additional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Application .
Log into our Small Business Online Banking using your business login from only your desktop or laptop .
You can ’ t enter this information through Mobile Banking.•After logging in you ’ ll be prompted to update your business information.•Select “ I ’ m ready ” .•Update your information , review , confirm and submit .
4 .
On bank website , there was no option to view and updated info that were mentioned above until 16th April .
These required information are added by bank , which was already filled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time Funding is exhausted and my PPP application that was submitted on 3rd , never reached to SBA .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by FearlessActions
There are lot of Businesses applied for PPP with proper documents and did not get funds because of non-transparent Bank Process and handling.
Here is my experience. Please share your experience and help others in gaining info.
1.Filled online PPP form on bank of America website.
Got email to upload documents on 6th April and uploaded documents 941, W2 2019s and Payroll feb 2020.
Log into IntraLinks and upload the required documents: • Payroll processor records for the period including February 15, 2020 • Payroll tax filings for 2019
On 15th April , got email from bank
We need additional information to process your Paycheck Protection Program Application.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Log into our Small Business Online Banking using your business login from only your desktop or laptop. You can’t enter this information through Mobile Banking.•After logging in you’ll be prompted to update your business information.•Select “I’m ready”.•Update your information, review, confirm and submit.
4. On bank website, there was no option to view and updated info that were mentioned above until 16th April.
These required information are added by bank , which was already filled in SBA Form
and on 16th April time Funding is exhausted and my PPP application that was submitted on 3rd, never reached to SBA.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR class-action suit filed against CHINA, they accuse Beijing of covid negligence

MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR class-action suit filed against CHINA, they accuse Beijing of covid negligence, economic damages

Lawyers in the US have launched a landmark legal action to sue China for trillions of dollars over the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ leaders of negligence for allowing the outbreak to erupt and then covering it up The @ @ @ @ @ thousands of claimants from 40 countries including Britain and the US , was filed in @ @ @ @ @ second case launched this month on behalf of healthcare workers accuses China of hoarding life-saving @ @ @

Lawyers in the US have launched a landmark legal action to sue China for trillions of dollars over the coronavirus pandemic, accusing its Communist leaders of negligence for allowing the outbreak to erupt and then covering it up
The class action, which involves thousands of claimants from 40 countries including Britain and the US, was filed in Florida last month. A second case launched this month on behalf of healthcare workers accuses China of hoarding life-saving medical supplies.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
mol.im/a/8233199


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Tesla Long Term Bear vs Bull Thesis

Tesla Long Term Bear vs Bull Thesis

With Tesla moving back towards its ATH , I thought I would provide my perspective on the supreme-meme stock .
Before the Tesla cultists jump on me and spam ban requests for my account , I want to give a bit of background .
I bought Tesla 10 years ago when it was less than 1/10 of todays price , and sold a few years ago for a profit .
I love Tesla ’ s products and would gladly buy one of their cars myself .
However , this is strictly about the value of their stock which I feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of you who think you are visionaries if you are just now buying this company in 2020 , lol .
You are very late to the party and at this point are being spoonfed a lot of ideas by the new mainstream that are not supported by deductive reasoning or data .
Before I go on , I am aware that Tesla does not follow fundamentals nearly as well as other stocks .
The wild speculations and cult-like following make the short-term prospects for this stock very unpredictable .
I am just attempting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long term performance of this stock .
• Tesla ’ s cars are the best thing since sliced bread or the first iPhone .
They have the highest owner satisfaction of any car , and will become the most prevalent car on earth in the future and monopolize the market • Tesla is not just a car company , they are also a solar/battery/autonomy/AI company .
Thus they are a premium , innovative technology company more comparable to Apple than GM .
They will monopolize several of these different markets • The company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income will continue to grow exponentially in the future due to our society ’ s moving to green technology , and Tesla ’ s prime position to capitalize • One fund manager ( Cathy Wood ) says she expects the stock to hit $ 7000 in the next 4 years ( lol ! )
• New factory in China = ~1.5 billion Teslas sold ( I ’ m being facetious ) • Not much of a point in focusing on current fundamentals or TA , since based on its current stock price Tesla @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 3 major US automakers combined .
Everybody knows their current sales are nowhere near justifying this valuation • We are on a 12 year bull run that many ( most ? )
are predicting is over .
In a recession/depression , the animal spirits that kept Tesla flush with cash despite their losses will fade away • Also in a depression/recession , less people are buying expensive electric cars or new cars period • Tesla investors want to believe it is a tech company , but a car manufacturer ’ s profit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traditional “ tech companies ” ( software & electronics ) in the future .
There is a ton of competition , large overhead costs to produce and ship these products and the auto industry as a whole has been declining for years .
• Electric vehicles are limited by infrastructure .
The world ’ s population is mostly urbanized and increasingly so .
Where do you charge an electric car for an hour+ if you live in a small apartment , as is the case for nearly the entire millennial+ generation ?
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil prices .
Going green is nice but ultimately economics are the strong guiding hand towards electric cars .
It appears that oil will be cheap for at least a few years .
Additionally , Trump is likely to win the next election ( I don ’ t like him myself , but I think this is the harsh reality ) .
His presence will not benefit green companies like Tesla for the next 4-5 years • Government incentives that helped a lot with their early growth are drying up • Tesla has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is very leveraged .
Comparing it to other brand-name tech companies is silly based on this fact alone .
Just look at their 10-k history , without the dreamer aspect it just looks atrocious .
There is a reason this 17 year old ( they are 17 years old and still not profitable ! )
company ’ s debt is still junk rated by the major credit rating agencies .
In contrast , Apple has had a net income of well over a billion dollars since 2005 , before the iPhone even came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tech company is the same , massive sustained profits for a long time .
• By the way , since they were rated junk prior to March 22 Tesla does not qualify for Fed bailout money if things start to look bad • Tesla is seen as a leader in a few green fields right now largely because they are allowed operate at a loss .
Other companies do not have this same luxury and are expected to return big profits .
Toyota can ’ t just go full electric and operate at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuts .
Tesla has been allowed to do this for a surprisingly long time because of animal spirits .
As soon as these green energy fields become profitable and the infrastructures start to take shape other companies will immediately jump aboard in droves .
GM already has the Bolt which is actually a great electric city car .
Volkswagen has spent tons of cash on EV development .
I am sure as soon as total EV sales numbers become more than just a small niche their EV portfolio will take off , along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also a solar/battery/autonomy/AI company ” .
I see this quote nearly everywhere Tesla is mentioned .
None of those are profitable for Tesla and all of them have major competitors .
I think it is unlikely for Tesla to be a monopoly in any of these fields .
Facebook/IBM/Nvidia/Google/Amazon are way ahead of Tesla in anything AI related , they are all filled with Stanford/MIT/Berkeley etc .
graduates with 6 figure salaries .
Similar statements can be made for autonomy , in which Tesla is also not the leader .
Ford and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , arguably they are outpacing Tesla www.theverge.com/2019/9/25/20882724/ford-autonomous-cars-vehicles-av-austin-texas-taxi-delivery • There are competing core car technologies .
Hydrogen fuel cells , while inferior at the moment , have had several breakthroughs that may propel their green technology further in the next 10 years .
See here : www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52328786 .
A lot of Tesla ’ s value is hinged on their absolute dominance of their type of electric vehicle technology in the long term future .
Challenges to this thesis substantially hurt their valuation • “ The future is self-driving taxis everywhere , and they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is made , which is quite unlikely due to existing competition .
Uber has a big leg up already .
But also , going back to fuel cells : fuel cells recharge in the same time as gas , a couple min .
Tesla ’ s batteries take well over an hour to fully charge .
Time charging is time not spent driving , which is lost revenue for a taxi .
For now electric batteries are the winner , but it is not certain that in the long term future this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cultists think the growth will be exponential and soon their cars will be in every driveway .
Just like when the iPhone came out , it grew exponentially for a long time .
This thinking is flawed .
For one thing , the iPhone has saturated in market share .
At this point in time almost everybody who wants a smartphone has one and the phones are starting to blend together , we are entering a new period for the phone industry .
Tesla will saturate the same way , their market isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the iPhone ’ s was since people already have good cars .
Once the early adopters have their cars , Tesla becomes less of a novelty .
You are already seeing this in rich neighborhoods in California .
If 3 of my rich neighbors have Teslas I want something unique .
This is one of the main reasons no car company has ever been totally dominant .
• Covid-19 will likely change the world , telecommuting will likely become much more of a thing .
Jim Bianco talks about this a lot ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of people have never telecommuted and didn ’ t know how to do it .
Businesses needed to figure out how to structure themselves to operate in such a manner .
Now that they have overcome this hurdle , telecommuting will become much more prevalent .
Less driving to work = less need for an expensive car like a Tesla .
For my weekend car , I ’ ll stick with the manual transmission Porsche which is much more fun to drive for a couple miles • China .
They opened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
China has never stolen anybody ’ s technology before ( /s ) .
The iPhone , made in China but its sales there have always been crap .
They only recently hit single digit millions in a country of over 1b since the government actively promotes domestic brands , and strongly takes their side in courts .
If a Chinese company makes a “ Resla ” that is an exact copy of the Model 3 and then sues Tesla for IP violation , you better believe they will win in China .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ now and an uncertain future , both politically and economically .
There are many talks right now of reducing our reliance on China due to Covid and punishing them .
IMO this all does not bode well for future sales of Tesla ’ s pricey electric cars Overall , I think that Tesla is a great company that will do amazing things in the future .
We just have a lot of “ dreamer ” investors right now who think Tesla has some kind of infinite magic sauce .
People who bought the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8 years , I think you will probably be able to buy their stock for $ 500 and enjoy a decent dividend and some more steady growth to follow .
I think the people buying and holding at today ’ s prices will see more crashes and no/low profits for a long time .
I can see it retesting and crossing the limits that were hit in the crash a month ago , as Covid is far from gone at this point .
I would only buy this stock if it goes below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now if I was holding .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by cashforstonkers
With Tesla moving back towards its ATH, I thought I would provide my perspective on the supreme-meme stock. Before the Tesla cultists jump on me and spam ban requests for my account, I want to give a bit of background. I bought Tesla 10 years ago when it was less than 1/10 of todays price, and sold a few years ago for a profit. I love Tesla’s products and would gladly buy one of their cars myself. However, this is strictly about the value of their stock which I feel is very overvalued right now. Those of you who think you are visionaries if you are just now buying this company in 2020, lol. You are very late to the party and at this point are being spoonfed a lot of ideas by the new mainstream that are not supported by deductive reasoning or data.
Before I go on, I am aware that Tesla does not follow fundamentals nearly as well as other stocks. The wild speculations and cult-like following make the short-term prospects for this stock very unpredictable. I am just attempting to make an educated guess about the long term performance of this stock.

The Bull Thesis
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Tesla’s cars are the best thing since sliced bread or the first iPhone. They have the highest owner satisfaction of any car, and will become the most prevalent car on earth in the future and monopolize the market Tesla is not just a car company, they are also a solar/battery/autonomy/AI company. Thus they are a premium, innovative technology company more comparable to Apple than GM. They will monopolize several of these different markets The company is not profitable now, but its income will continue to grow exponentially in the future due to our society’s moving to green technology, and Tesla’s prime position to capitalize One fund manager (Cathy Wood) says she expects the stock to hit $7000 in the next 4 years (lol!) New factory in China = ~1.5 billion Teslas sold (I’m being facetious)
The Bear Thesis
Not much of a point in focusing on current fundamentals or TA, since based on its current stock price Tesla’s market cap is larger than the 3 major US automakers combined. Everybody knows their current sales are nowhere near justifying this valuation We are on a 12 year bull run that many (most?) are predicting is over. In a recession/depression, the animal spirits that kept Tesla flush with cash despite their losses will fade away Also in a depression/recession, less people are buying expensive electric cars or new cars period Tesla investors want to believe it is a tech company, but a car manufacturer’s profit margins are highly unlikely to ever match traditional “tech companies” (software & electronics) in the future. There is a ton of competition, large overhead costs to produce and ship these products and the auto industry as a whole has been declining for years. Electric vehicles are limited by infrastructure. The world’s population is mostly urbanized and increasingly so. Where do you charge an electric car for an hour+ if you live in a small apartment, as is the case for nearly the entire millennial+ generation? Tesla will suffer due to rock bottom oil prices. Going green is nice but ultimately economics are the strong guiding hand towards electric cars. It appears that oil will be cheap for at least a few years. Additionally, Trump is likely to win the next election (I don’t like him myself, but I think this is the harsh reality). His presence will not benefit green companies like Tesla for the next 4-5 years Government incentives that helped a lot with their early growth are drying up Tesla has never paid a dividend and the company is very leveraged. Comparing it to other brand-name tech companies is silly based on this fact alone. Just look at their 10-k history, without the dreamer aspect it just looks atrocious. There is a reason this 17 year old (they are 17 years old and still not profitable!) company’s debt is still junk rated by the major credit rating agencies. In contrast, Apple has had a net income of well over a billion dollars since 2005, before the iPhone even came out. Pretty much every other big tech company is the same, massive sustained profits for a long time. By the way, since they were rated junk prior to March 22 Tesla does not qualify for Fed bailout money if things start to look bad Tesla is seen as a leader in a few green fields right now largely because they are allowed operate at a loss. Other companies do not have this same luxury and are expected to return big profits. Toyota can’t just go full electric and operate at giant losses, their shareholders will go nuts. Tesla has been allowed to do this for a surprisingly long time because of animal spirits. As soon as these green energy fields become profitable and the infrastructures start to take shape other companies will immediately jump aboard in droves. GM already has the Bolt which is actually a great electric city car. Volkswagen has spent tons of cash on EV development. I am sure as soon as total EV sales numbers become more than just a small niche their EV portfolio will take off, along with many other manufacturers “Tesla is also a solar/battery/autonomy/AI company”. I see this quote nearly everywhere Tesla is mentioned. None of those are profitable for Tesla and all of them have major competitors. I think it is unlikely for Tesla to be a monopoly in any of these fields. Facebook/IBM/Nvidia/Google/Amazon are way ahead of Tesla in anything AI related, they are all filled with Stanford/MIT/Berkeley etc. graduates with 6 figure salaries. Similar statements can be made for autonomy, in which Tesla is also not the leader. Ford and GM are doing surprisingly well in autonomy, arguably they are outpacing Tesla www.theverge.com/2019/9/25/20882724/ford-autonomous-cars-vehicles-av-austin-texas-taxi-delivery There are competing core car technologies. Hydrogen fuel cells, while inferior at the moment, have had several breakthroughs that may propel their green technology further in the next 10 years. See here: www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52328786. A lot of Tesla’s value is hinged on their absolute dominance of their type of electric vehicle technology in the long term future. Challenges to this thesis substantially hurt their valuation “The future is self-driving taxis everywhere, and they will all be Teslas.” Another common point that is made, which is quite unlikely due to existing competition. Uber has a big leg up already. But also, going back to fuel cells: fuel cells recharge in the same time as gas, a couple min. Tesla’s batteries take well over an hour to fully charge. Time charging is time not spent driving, which is lost revenue for a taxi. For now electric batteries are the winner, but it is not certain that in the long term future this will be the case Many Tesla cultists think the growth will be exponential and soon their cars will be in every driveway. Just like when the iPhone came out, it grew exponentially for a long time. This thinking is flawed. For one thing, the iPhone has saturated in market share. At this point in time almost everybody who wants a smartphone has one and the phones are starting to blend together, we are entering a new period for the phone industry. Tesla will saturate the same way, their market isn’t even a new field like the iPhone’s was since people already have good cars. Once the early adopters have their cars, Tesla becomes less of a novelty. You are already seeing this in rich neighborhoods in California. If 3 of my rich neighbors have Teslas I want something unique. This is one of the main reasons no car company has ever been totally dominant. Covid-19 will likely change the world, telecommuting will likely become much more of a thing. Jim Bianco talks about this a lot (see www.youtube.com/watch?v=frLz2PJnj1M). Historically a lot of people have never telecommuted and didn’t know how to do it. Businesses needed to figure out how to structure themselves to operate in such a manner. Now that they have overcome this hurdle, telecommuting will become much more prevalent. Less driving to work = less need for an expensive car like a Tesla. For my weekend car, I’ll stick with the manual transmission Porsche which is much more fun to drive for a couple miles China. They opened up a factory in China, great. China has never stolen anybody’s technology before (/s). The iPhone, made in China but its sales there have always been crap. They only recently hit single digit millions in a country of over 1b since the government actively promotes domestic brands, and strongly takes their side in courts. If a Chinese company makes a “Resla” that is an exact copy of the Model 3 and then sues Tesla for IP violation, you better believe they will win in China. China is experiencing massive GDP losses right now and an uncertain future, both politically and economically. There are many talks right now of reducing our reliance on China due to Covid and punishing them. IMO this all does not bode well for future sales of Tesla’s pricey electric cars
TLDR:
Overall, I think that Tesla is a great company that will do amazing things in the future. We just have a lot of “dreamer” investors right now who think Tesla has some kind of infinite magic sauce. People who bought the stock early did well. And in 8 years, I think you will probably be able to buy their stock for $500 and enjoy a decent dividend and some more steady growth to follow. I think the people buying and holding at today’s prices will see more crashes and no/low profits for a long time. I can see it retesting and crossing the limits that were hit in the crash a month ago, as Covid is far from gone at this point. I would only buy this stock if it goes below $200, and definitely would sell right now if I was holding.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Danielle DiMartino Booth said Beijing officials were aware of the outbreak in Wuhan in November

Danielle DiMartino Booth said Beijing officials were aware of the outbreak in Wuhan in November She said Chinese officials had countless lives on their hands for under-reporting The economist points to a ‘ pandemic clause ’ in the January US-China trade deal It came as Wuhan revised its official death toll to add nearly 1,300 fatalities China committed an ‘ act of war ’ by covering up the scale of its early coronavirus outbreak for six weeks , a leading economist has claimed .
Danielle DiMartino Booth , an author and chief executive of research and analytics firm Quill Intelligence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the deadly disease spreading in Wuhan last November and allowed it to snowball into a global pandemic .
She said Chinese officials had countless lives on their hands and should be hauled before an international court as their ‘ under-reporting ’ did not afford the rest of the world time to prepare for an onslaught .
The economist points to a ‘ pandemic clause ’ in the January trade deal between Washington and Beijing , which she believes is evidence the Communist regime knew the extent of their crisis while publicly downplaying it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ World Health Organisation should be held accountable for not holding China accountable to providing good valid data so the rest of the world could prepare for fewer people to die .
‘ And that ’ s what you ’ re talking about .
To me these are equivalent to acts of war.
’ Her blistering attack , made on the Valuetainment YouTube show , came as Wuhan , the epicenter of the pandemic , revised the city ’ s official death toll to add nearly 1,300 fatalities .
She told host Patrick Bet-David @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerged in November , and that six weeks later on January 15 , Washington and Beijing signed a trade deal in which she claims China preempted the pandemic .
In an agreement which ended the bitter trade war between the world ’ s two economic powerhouses , Xi Jinping would buy $ 200million of American goods and Donald Trump would ease tariffs on Chinese exports .
But DiMartino Booth said that buried in this deal was ‘ an out-clause , a very clever out-clause that the Chinese made sure was in there.
’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was any act of God , a pandemic , then they didn ’ t have to make good on what they ’ d committed to buy from the United States .

Danielle DiMartino Booth said Beijing officials were aware of the outbreak in Wuhan in November
She said Chinese officials had countless lives on their hands for under-reporting
The economist points to a ‘pandemic clause’ in the January US-China trade deal
It came as Wuhan revised its official death toll to add nearly 1,300 fatalities
China committed an ‘act of war’ by covering up the scale of its early coronavirus outbreak for six weeks, a leading economist has claimed.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, an author and chief executive of research and analytics firm Quill Intelligence, said Beijing officials were aware of the deadly disease spreading in Wuhan last November and allowed it to snowball into a global pandemic.
She said Chinese officials had countless lives on their hands and should be hauled before an international court as their ‘under-reporting’ did not afford the rest of the world time to prepare for an onslaught.
The economist points to a ‘pandemic clause’ in the January trade deal between Washington and Beijing, which she believes is evidence the Communist regime knew the extent of their crisis while publicly downplaying it.
DiMartino Booth said: ‘The World Health Organisation should be held accountable for not holding China accountable to providing good valid data so the rest of the world could prepare for fewer people to die.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
‘And that’s what you’re talking about. To me these are equivalent to acts of war.’
Her blistering attack, made on the Valuetainment YouTube show, came as Wuhan, the epicenter of the pandemic, revised the city’s official death toll to add nearly 1,300 fatalities.
She told host Patrick Bet-David that reports of a virus in Wuhan emerged in November, and that six weeks later on January 15, Washington and Beijing signed a trade deal in which she claims China preempted the pandemic.
In an agreement which ended the bitter trade war between the world’s two economic powerhouses, Xi Jinping would buy $200million of American goods and Donald Trump would ease tariffs on Chinese exports.
But DiMartino Booth said that buried in this deal was ‘an out-clause, a very clever out-clause that the Chinese made sure was in there.’
She continued: ‘That said if there was any act of God, a pandemic, then they didn’t have to make good on what they’d committed to buy from the United States.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8229963/Economist-claims-China-covered-early-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Full interview
h/t kpm