investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Is this real life?

Is this real life?

Now , lets summarize what is currently happening -Somebody ’ s precious little bioweapon escaped the lab probably 6 months ago -Practically everything is shut down right now .
I haven ’ t seen my town this quiet since 9/11 -All major sportsball events are cancelled -Practically all large events are cancelled -We still have barely any idea what the **** is happening in China .
Some cities are showing to be completely offline .
Some of my companies claim that their manufacturers are back online but they have zero ability to ship .
-Coin shops and bullion dealers across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out -Vegas is closed .
Those Casinos can not tolerate being closed for 1 ******* second .
How many will file for bankruptcy this year ?
-Here on the West Coast , we are expecting shelter-in-place orders any day now .
Companies are making contingency plans for when they are stuck at home and unable to ship product .
-The ******* bars are closed for christs sake -We already have bailouts that are already magnitudes larger than QE 1-3 -TRILLIONS a day are now being printed in order to keep the credit market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being activated across the entire country -A market crash that is already numerically worse than the great depression -The mass layoffs have already started .
My Dad ’ s friend had to layoff ALL of his employees for his catering company , due to a sudden 90 % drop in business .
- $ 1,200 is currently on the way to each Ameridumb debt-serf as a token of gratitude for their willingness to be completely robbed of any future… Once again I need to reiterate the seriousness of the situation that we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening NOW .
We are right in the middle of it .
YOUR LIFE IS NOW OVER .
I repeat , YOUR LIFE IS NOW OVER .
By the beginning of april , none of us will be able to recognize the situation we are in .
We are in the dustification phase of the economic 9/11 .
And before we know it , there will be a smoldering radioactive crater where there once used to be an economy .
This was all going to happen regardless .
But now that we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bets are off the table .
You do not shut down the entire ******* world economy literally overnight just to pull a false flag stunt .
Stop ******* pretending that you are going back to your normal comfortable life in the next few weeks .
Everything is going to be different from now on .
*I hope that every last one of the executives running all of the corporations recieving bailouts will lose everything they have ever owned *I wonder where Overleveraged_and_impatient is right now ?
*How in the **** are the politicians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of city halls and state capitols right now ?
*More Marketwatch Comedy : “ Uber Stock Soared Thursday .
It ’ s Still a Bargain , Analyst Says.
” You fuckers get the rope too !

A comment on Zero Hedge:
Now, lets summarize what is currently happening
-Somebody’s precious little bioweapon escaped the lab probably 6 months ago
-Practically everything is shut down right now. I haven’t seen my town this quiet since 9/11
-All major sportsball events are cancelled
-Practically all large events are cancelled
-We still have barely any idea what the **** is happening in China. Some cities are showing to be completely offline. Some of my companies claim that their manufacturers are back online but they have zero ability to ship.
-Coin shops and bullion dealers across the world are getting cleaned the **** out
-Vegas is closed. Those Casinos cannot tolerate being closed for 1 ******* second. How many will file for bankruptcy this year?
-Here on the West Coast, we are expecting shelter-in-place orders any day now. Companies are making contingency plans for when they are stuck at home and unable to ship product.
-The ******* bars are closed for christs sake
-We already have bailouts that are already magnitudes larger than QE 1-3
-TRILLIONS a day are now being printed in order to keep the credit market from seizing to a halt
-National Guard being activated across the entire country
-A market crash that is already numerically worse than the great depression
-The mass layoffs have already started. My Dad’s friend had to layoff ALL of his employees for his catering company, due to a sudden 90% drop in business.
-$1,200 is currently on the way to each Ameridumb debt-serf as a token of gratitude for their willingness to be completely robbed of any future…
Once again I need to reiterate the seriousness of the situation that we are currently in. The economic collapse is happening NOW. We are right in the middle of it. YOUR LIFE IS NOW OVER. I repeat, YOUR LIFE IS NOW OVER. By the beginning of april, none of us will be able to recognize the situation we are in. We are in the dustification phase of the economic 9/11. And before we know it, there will be a smoldering radioactive crater where there once used to be an economy. This was all going to happen regardless. But now that we have bioweapon on the loose, all ******* bets are off the table. You do not shut down the entire ******* world economy literally overnight just to pull a false flag stunt. Stop ******* pretending that you are going back to your normal comfortable life in the next few weeks. Everything is going to be different from now on.
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HAPPY FRIDAY BITCHEZ!
*I hope that every last one of the executives running all of the corporations recieving bailouts will lose everything they have ever owned
*I wonder where Overleveraged_and_impatient is right now?
*How in the **** are the politicians not swinging from the lightposts in front of city halls and state capitols right now?
*More Marketwatch Comedy: “Uber Stock Soared Thursday. It’s Still a Bargain, Analyst Says.” You fuckers get the rope too!


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Pill Hard To Swallow, Unsealed Much Will Be Revealed, Watch The News For [RC]

The [ DS ] continues to push their event , this is failing .
Trump and the patriots are preparing @ @ @ @ @ Trump started the narrative of a cure and the MSM will not acknowledge it .
@ @ @ @ @ to swallow , but when the patriots unseal the indictment much will be revealed .
@ @ @ @ @ messages that the storm is upon us , prepare , it ’ s happening .

The [DS] continues to push their event, this is failing. Trump and the patriots are preparing for a major operation. Trump started the narrative of a cure and the MSM will not acknowledge it. The pill will be hard to swallow, but when the patriots unseal the indictment much will be revealed. The patriots have been sending messages that the storm is upon us, prepare, it’s happening.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--You want less criticism? Stop being such garbage.

You want less criticism ?
Stop being such garbage .
Every time China kicks out some of their fellow journalists @ @ @ @ @ responds by attacking Trump using China ’ s preferred narrative to ingratiate themselves with Beijing @

HARSH, BUT FAIR:
Related:
Also:
And:
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You want less criticism? Stop being such garbage.
Every time China kicks out some of their fellow journalists the White House press corp responds by attacking Trump using China’s preferred narrative to ingratiate themselves with Beijing.
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Video – The Shocking Centre Of The COVID-19 Crisis – A Look Inside An Italian Hospital

Everyone who says this is a nothing to worry about should be ashamed of themselves .

Everyone who says this is a nothing to worry about should be ashamed of themselves.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Illinois SHELTER IN PLACE active as of March 21st

“ I ’ ve asked every one of these experts , ‘ What action can I take to save the @ @ @ @ @ the governor said .
“ Well , they ’ ve come back to me with @ @ @ @ @ avoid the loss of potentially tens of thousands of lives , we must enact an @ @ @ @ @ state of Illinois .
”

“I’ve asked every one of these experts, ‘What action can I take to save the most lives?’” the governor said. “Well, they’ve come back to me with one inescapable conclusion: To avoid the loss of potentially tens of thousands of lives, we must enact an immediate stay-at-home order for the state of Illinois.”
www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-shelter-in-place-lockdown-order-20200320-teedakbfw5gvdgmnaxlel54hau-story.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Quinism Foundation Warns of Dangers from Use of Antimalarial Quinolines Against COVID19

Use of Chloroquine , Hydroxychloroquine , Mefloquine , Quinine , and Related Quinoline Drugs Risks Sudden and Lasting Neuropsychiatric Effects from Idiosyncratic Neurotoxicity The Quinism Foundation has warned of a risk of sudden and lasting neuropsychiatric effects from the use of antimalarial quinolines against COVID‑19 , the disease caused by the novel coronavirus , and has urged policy makers , physicians , and members of the public to be alert to such effects .
“ The same endosomotropic properties that likely underlie the effectiveness of quinoline antimalarial drugs such as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against the virus may also underlie their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , MD , MPH , DrPH , a Johns-Hopkins trained psychiatric epidemiologist and drug safety expert and former U.S. Army public health physician , who now serves as Executive Director of The Quinism Foundation .
“ These are not safe drugs.
” “ In susceptible individuals , these drugs act as idiosyncratic neurotoxicants , potentially causing irreversible brain and brainstem dysfunction , even when used at relatively low doses , ” said Dr. Nevin .
“ This drug-induced dysfunction causes a disease of the brain and brainstem called quinoline encephalopathy , or quinism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ psychosis , confusion , and risk of suicide , and by lasting psychiatric and neurological symptoms.
” “ Symptoms of chronic quinoline encephalopathy include tinnitus , dizziness , vertigo , paresthesias , visual disturbances , nightmares , insomnia , anxiety , agoraphobia , paranoia , cognitive dysfunction , depression , personality change , and suicidal thoughts , among others , ” said Dr. Nevin .
“ Particularly among military veterans , in whom these drugs have been widely used for decades as prophylactic antimalarials , these symptoms can mimic and be mistaken for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brain injury.
” Look up the side effects Blistering , peeling , loosening of the skin blurred vision or other vision changes chest discomfort , pain , or tightness cough or hoarseness dark urine decreased urination defective color vision diarrhea difficulty breathing difficulty seeing at night dizziness or fainting fast , pounding , uneven heartbeat feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior feeling that others can hear your thoughts feeling , seeing , or hearing things that are not there fever with or without chills general feeling of tiredness or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increased blinking or spasms of the eyelid joint or muscle pain large , hive-like swelling on the face , eyelids , lips , tongue , throat , hands , legs , feet , and sex organs loss of hearing lower back or side pain noisy breathing painful or difficult urination red irritated eyes red skin lesions , often with a purple center severe mood or mental changes sore throat sores , ulcers , or white spots on the lips or in the mouth sticking out of the tongue stomach pain swelling of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glands trouble with breathing , speaking , or swallowing uncontrolled twisting movements of the neck , trunk , arms , or legs unusual behavior unusual bleeding or bruising unusual facial expressions unusual tiredness or weakness yellow eyes or skin

Use of Chloroquine, Hydroxychloroquine, Mefloquine, Quinine, and Related Quinoline Drugs Risks Sudden and Lasting Neuropsychiatric Effects from Idiosyncratic Neurotoxicity
The Quinism Foundation has warned of a risk of sudden and lasting neuropsychiatric effects from the use of antimalarial quinolines against COVID‑19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, and has urged policy makers, physicians, and members of the public to be alert to such effects.
“The same endosomotropic properties that likely underlie the effectiveness of quinoline antimalarial drugs such as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against the virus may also underlie their dangers, ” said Dr. Remington Nevin, MD, MPH, DrPH, a Johns-Hopkins trained psychiatric epidemiologist and drug safety expert and former U.S. Army public health physician, who now serves as Executive Director of The Quinism Foundation. “These are not safe drugs.”
“In susceptible individuals, these drugs act as idiosyncratic neurotoxicants, potentially causing irreversible brain and brainstem dysfunction, even when used at relatively low doses,” said Dr. Nevin. “This drug-induced dysfunction causes a disease of the brain and brainstem called quinoline encephalopathy, or quinism, which can be marked acutely by psychosis, confusion, and risk of suicide, and by lasting psychiatric and neurological
symptoms.”
“Symptoms of chronic quinoline encephalopathy include tinnitus, dizziness, vertigo, paresthesias, visual disturbances, nightmares, insomnia, anxiety, agoraphobia, paranoia, cognitive dysfunction, depression, personality change, and suicidal thoughts, among others, ” said Dr. Nevin. “Particularly among military veterans, in whom these drugs have been widely used for decades as prophylactic antimalarials, these symptoms can mimic and be mistaken for those of post-traumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury.”
quinism.org/press-releases/dangers-of-antimalarial-quinolines-against-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3ECLegq2tganSKpIyR6SL5YmRkxckN64L-xSwSZU7jVrPY9djeDUwkIQ0
Look up the side effects
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Straight up turns people into zombies
www.drugs.com/sfx/hydroxychloroquine-side-effects.html
Blistering, peeling, loosening of the skin
blurred vision or other vision changes
chest discomfort, pain, or tightness
cough or hoarseness
dark urine
decreased urination
defective color vision
diarrhea
difficulty breathing
difficulty seeing at night
dizziness or fainting
fast, pounding, uneven heartbeat
feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior
feeling that others can hear your thoughts
feeling, seeing, or hearing things that are not there
fever with or without chills
general feeling of tiredness or weakness
headache
inability to move the eyes
increased blinking or spasms of the eyelid
joint or muscle pain
large, hive-like swelling on the face, eyelids, lips, tongue, throat, hands, legs, feet, and sex organs
loss of hearing
lower back or side pain
noisy breathing
painful or difficult urination
red irritated eyes
red skin lesions, often with a purple center
severe mood or mental changes
sore throat sores, ulcers, or white spots on the lips or in the mouth
sticking out of the tongue
stomach pain
swelling of the feet or lower legs
swollen or painful glands
trouble with breathing, speaking, or swallowing
uncontrolled twisting movements of the neck, trunk, arms, or legs
unusual behavior
unusual bleeding or bruising
unusual facial expressions
unusual tiredness or weakness
yellow eyes or skin
DK


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--CNBC: “Goldman sees unprecedented stop in economic activity, with 2nd quarter GDP contracting 24%”

• Goldman Sachs economists forecast a historically sharp and swift recession , with second-quarter GDP sinking a stunning 24 % after a 6 % decline in the first quarter .
• The economists had expected a decline of 5 % in the second quarter , after a flat first quarter but they said social distancing measures have affected many sectors of the economy and will hit the first and second quarter hard .
• The economists still expect a spring back in the third quarter , of 12 % , but they see unemployment peaking at 9 % .
Goldman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 % decline in second quarter gross domestic product , following a 6 % decline in the first quarter , based on the economy ’ s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic .
The economists then expect a bounce back of 12 % in the third quarter and 10 % in the fourth quarter , but unemployment will surge to 9 % .
They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8 % for the full year on an annual average basis , and 3.1 % on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just five days ago , Goldman economists had expected the economy to trough with a decline of 5 % in the second quarter after a flat first quarter .
They had expected a resurgence in the second half and full year growth of 0.4 % .

Goldman Sachs economists forecast a historically sharp and swift recession, with second-quarter GDP sinking a stunning 24% after a 6% decline in the first quarter.
The economists had expected a decline of 5% in the second quarter, after a flat first quarter but they said social distancing measures have affected many sectors of the economy and will hit the first and second quarter hard.
The economists still expect a spring back in the third quarter, of 12%, but they see unemployment peaking at 9%.
Goldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.
The economists then expect a bounce back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%. They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis.
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Just five days ago, Goldman economists had expected the economy to trough with a decline of 5% in the second quarter after a flat first quarter. They had expected a resurgence in the second half and full year growth of 0.4%.
www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-sees-an-unprecedented-stop-of-economic-activity-with-2nd-quarter-gdp-contracting-by-24percent.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--China is under-reporting death toll from Covid-19. Millions have potentially died, shown in dramatic

China is under-reporting death toll from Covid-19. Millions have potentially died, shown in dramatic fall in phone subscribers

As a foreword , I ’ d like to apologize for being painfully vague in this post .
I have to protect people ’ s identities , so company names have been replace by “ telecom company ” and specific job titles have been replaced with “ executive ” .
It ’ s as specific I can be .
So I have links to somebody who is a very high up executive in the Cellular/Telecom industry of a European nation .
They have discovered information that China ’ s main , public Cellular/Telecom company , “ China Mobile ” , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the last month , and a total of 8 Million since the beginning of the Covid-19 breakout .
( EDIT : I really didn ’ t think this needed to be said , but somebody posted , and then very hastily deleted , a comment saying that “ these people ’ s last moments , as they ’ re dying , is canceling their phone plan ” .
That ’ s OBVIOUSLY not what ’ s happening .
When you die , *your subscription automatically ends .
How can you be subscribed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
?
? )
* This is information that they partially found themselves , as well as information he ’ s gotten from other executives within the cellular industry .
They had this information verified with other executives Although that seems like a big number , maybe it could be assumed that they ’ re changing carriers .
That isn ’ t the case , unfortunately , as my source said competing companies are also losing subscribers .
Here is a text exchange with my source , as well as a text exchange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He has also shared his own , additional reasons to think the numbers coming from China are substantially lower than that of reality , his biggest point being that China is still building hospitals .
It ’ s no secret that China fudges a multitude of numbers .
From GDP to population , China constantly fudges their numbers .
I recall seeing this post a while back about China burning bodies of the dead in order to hide the true casualties of the virus .
Considering how quickly this virus spreads , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ metros in China , and the population density , it was inevitable that the numbers would be high Millions , though , is groundbreaking .
And could potentially be why entire nations are shutting down .
This virus is killing way more than is being reported .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by ayyo_kato
As a foreword, I’d like to apologize for being painfully vague in this post. I have to protect people’s identities, so company names have been replace by “telecom company” and specific job titles have been replaced with “executive”. It’s as specific I can be.
So I have links to somebody who is a very high up executive in the Cellular/Telecom industry of a European nation. They have discovered information that China’s main, public Cellular/Telecom company, “China Mobile”, has lost 2 Million mobile phone subscribers in the last month, and a total of 8 Million since the beginning of the Covid-19 breakout. (EDIT: I really didn’t think this needed to be said, but somebody posted, and then very hastily deleted, a comment saying that “these people’s last moments, as they’re dying, is canceling their phone plan”. That’s OBVIOUSLY not what’s happening. When you die, *your subscription automatically ends. How can you be subscribed to something if you’re dead???)* This is information that they partially found themselves, as well as information he’s gotten from other executives within the cellular industry. They had this information verified with other executives
Although that seems like a big number, maybe it could be assumed that they’re changing carriers. That isn’t the case, unfortunately, as my source said competing companies are also losing subscribers. Here is a text exchange with my source, as well as a text exchange he had with a coworker of his. He has also shared his own, additional reasons to think the numbers coming from China are substantially lower than that of reality, his biggest point being that China is still building hospitals.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It’s no secret that China fudges a multitude of numbers. From GDP to population, China constantly fudges their numbers.
I recall seeing this post a while back about China burning bodies of the dead in order to hide the true casualties of the virus. Considering how quickly this virus spreads, the unsanitary conditions of the tightly packed metros in China, and the population density, it was inevitable that the numbers would be high
Millions, though, is groundbreaking. And could potentially be why entire nations are shutting down. This virus is killing way more than is being reported.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--This Was The Worst Week For The Stock Market Since 2008, And “Jobless Filings Are Growing Geometrica

This Was The Worst Week For The Stock Market Since 2008, And “Jobless Filings Are Growing Geometrically”

Just a few weeks ago everything seemed completely normal to most people , but now fear of the coronavirus has caused U.S. stock prices to absolutely implode .
The stock market crash of 2020 will forever be mentioned alongside the crashes of 1929 , 1987 and 2008 , and by the time it is over it could potentially end up being the largest of them all .
Close to a third of all stock market wealth in the entire country has already been wiped out , and many experts are warning that the worst is yet to come .
Of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their very best to try to prop up the market , but despite the most dramatic intervention by the Federal Reserve that we have ever witnessed , U.S. stocks just had their worst week since 2008… And when you look at the numbers for the entire month so far , they are even more depressing… Overall , the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen a whopping 35.2 percent from the all-time record high that we witnessed in February , and the S & P 500 has fallen 32.1 percent from the all-time record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In all of U.S. history , we have never seen a market crash of such speed and ferocity .
At this point , all of the stock market gains that we have witnessed since Donald Trump became president have been completely wiped out .
I know that many of you may find this difficult to believe , but stock prices are still substantially overvalued .
According to historical norms , stocks valuation ratios are still way too high , and so stocks still have a lot further to fall until they get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course these aren ’ t “ normal ” times , and so there is no telling how far prices could eventually fall .
As financial markets continue to go wildly up and down , an increasing number of financial firms are inevitably going to get into very serious trouble .
On Friday , many were absolutely stunned when Ronin Capital completely imploded… Sadly , what we have witnessed so far is just the beginning .
Meanwhile , the greatest corporate debt bubble in history appears as though it is about to burst in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ the amount of distressed debt in the U.S. alone has doubled ” over the past couple of weeks… But most ordinary Americans are not really too concerned about such matters .
What many Americans are worried about these days is whether or not they will actually have jobs next week .
As the U.S. literally shuts down from coast to coast , Americans are losing jobs at a pace that is mind blowing , and we are being told that state jobless claims “ are growing geometrically ” … When I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my breath away .
And since most workers in this country are living paycheck to paycheck , large numbers of them will almost instantly be struggling to pay their basic expenses once they are let go .
Sadly , more layoffs are coming , and we are now being warned to brace ourselves for job loss numbers that once would have been unthinkable… Please pray for those that are losing their jobs , because most of them will not be able to find work for the foreseeable future .
What we are dealing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In her most recent article , Annie Lowrey described this as an economic “ shock ” that is “ more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced ” … What is happening is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced .
The unemployment rate climbed to its apex of 9.9 percent 23 months after the formal start of the Great Recession .
Just a few weeks into the domestic coronavirus pandemic , and just days into the imposition of emergency measures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of workers report that they have lost hours or lost their job .
One payroll and scheduling processor suggests that 22 percent of work hours have evaporated for hourly employees , with three in 10 people who would normally show up for work not going as of Tuesday .
Absent a strong governmental response , the unemployment rate seems certain to reach heights not seen since the Great Depression or even the miserable late 1800s .
So how bad could things ultimately get ?
Well , Goldman Sachs is now forecasting that on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 percent in the second quarter… If that projection is anywhere close to accurate , we are about to see economic suffering that will be off the charts .
Needless to say , cries for help from the federal government will soon become overwhelming .
At this point , even billionaires such as Ray Dalio are pleading for the government to do more… So a broke government that is already 23.5 trillion dollars in debt is supposed to borrow and spend trillions more to bail everyone out ?
Good luck with all that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end .
We have reached a time when everyone and everything is going to be shaken , and life is never going to go back to the way it was before .
But as I keep stressing , now is not a time for fear .
With God ’ s help we can get through this , but God ’ s plan for your future may end up looking radically different from what your plan for the future would have looked like .

by Michael Snyder
Just a few weeks ago everything seemed completely normal to most people, but now fear of the coronavirus has caused U.S. stock prices to absolutely implode. The stock market crash of 2020 will forever be mentioned alongside the crashes of 1929, 1987 and 2008, and by the time it is over it could potentially end up being the largest of them all. Close to a third of all stock market wealth in the entire country has already been wiped out, and many experts are warning that the worst is yet to come. Of course the authorities are going to do their very best to try to prop up the market, but despite the most dramatic intervention by the Federal Reserve that we have ever witnessed, U.S. stocks just had their worst week since 2008…
The Dow dropped more than 17% for the week, its biggest one-week fall since October 2008, when it slid 18.2%. The S&P 500 lost more than 13% week to date after dropping another 11.5% last week. The Nasdaq fell 12.6%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also had their worst weekly performances since the financial crisis in 2008.
And when you look at the numbers for the entire month so far, they are even more depressing…
The Dow is down more than 24% for March and is currently on pace for its biggest one-month fall since September 1931. The S&P 500 has dropped 22% month to date and is headed for its worst monthly performance since May 1940.
Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen a whopping 35.2 percent from the all-time record high that we witnessed in February, and the S&P 500 has fallen 32.1 percent from the all-time record high that it set earlier this year.
In all of U.S. history, we have never seen a market crash of such speed and ferocity.
At this point, all of the stock market gains that we have witnessed since Donald Trump became president have been completely wiped out.
Ouch.
I know that many of you may find this difficult to believe, but stock prices are still substantially overvalued.
According to historical norms, stocks valuation ratios are still way too high, and so stocks still have a lot further to fall until they get back to “normal”.
Of course these aren’t “normal” times, and so there is no telling how far prices could eventually fall.
As financial markets continue to go wildly up and down, an increasing number of financial firms are inevitably going to get into very serious trouble.
On Friday, many were absolutely stunned when Ronin Capital completely imploded…
Well, no more: according to CNBC’s Scott Wapner, one of the CME’s direct clearing firms was unable to meet its capital requirements on Friday, forcing the exchange to step in and invoke its “emergency protocols” to auction off the firm’s portfolios. The firm in question: Ronin Capital, which on its website says “seeks the best and brightest people who embrace our Firm’s culture, and can thrive in a dynamic, entrepreneurial trading environment.” Apparently, that also meant being unable to quantify your risk exposure.
Sadly, what we have witnessed so far is just the beginning.
Meanwhile, the greatest corporate debt bubble in history appears as though it is about to burst in a major way. According to Bloomberg, “the amount of distressed debt in the U.S. alone has doubled” over the past couple of weeks…
In less than two weeks, the amount of distressed debt in the U.S. alone has doubled to a half-trillion dollars as the collapse of oil prices and the fallout from the coronavirus shutters entire industries. In all, U.S. corporate bonds that yield at least 10 percentage points above Treasuries, as well as loans that trade for less than 80 cents on the dollar, have swelled to $533 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
But most ordinary Americans are not really too concerned about such matters.
What many Americans are worried about these days is whether or not they will actually have jobs next week.
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As the U.S. literally shuts down from coast to coast, Americans are losing jobs at a pace that is mind blowing, and we are being told that state jobless claims “are growing geometrically”…
State jobless filings are growing geometrically, a signal of how the national numbers will change when we have them. Last Monday, Colorado had 400 people apply for unemployment insurance. This Tuesday: 6,800. California has seen its daily filings jump from 2,000 to 80,000. Oregon went from 800 to 18,000. In Connecticut, nearly 2 percent of the state’s workers declared that they were newly jobless on a single day. Many other states are reporting the same kinds of figures.
When I first read those numbers, they took my breath away.
And since most workers in this country are living paycheck to paycheck, large numbers of them will almost instantly be struggling to pay their basic expenses once they are let go.
Sadly, more layoffs are coming, and we are now being warned to brace ourselves for job loss numbers that once would have been unthinkable…
The first real bad U.S. economic data from the coronavirus outbreak was released on Thursday, as initial jobless claims surged 70,000 to 281,000, the highest level in 2.5 years. But that is not anything compared with what is in store. David Choi, an economist from Goldman Sachs, says initial claims for the week ending March 21 may jump to a seasonally adjusted 2.25 million.
Please pray for those that are losing their jobs, because most of them will not be able to find work for the foreseeable future.
What we are dealing with is not just another economic downturn. In her most recent article, Annie Lowrey described this as an economic “shock” that is “more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced”…
What is happening is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced. The unemployment rate climbed to its apex of 9.9 percent 23 months after the formal start of the Great Recession. Just a few weeks into the domestic coronavirus pandemic, and just days into the imposition of emergency measures to arrest it, nearly 20 percent of workers report that they have lost hours or lost their job. One payroll and scheduling processor suggests that 22 percent of work hours have evaporated for hourly employees, with three in 10 people who would normally show up for work not going as of Tuesday. Absent a strong governmental response, the unemployment rate seems certain to reach heights not seen since the Great Depression or even the miserable late 1800s.
So how bad could things ultimately get?
Well, Goldman Sachs is now forecasting that on an annualized basis U.S. GDP will plunge 24 percent in the second quarter…
Goldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.
If that projection is anywhere close to accurate, we are about to see economic suffering that will be off the charts.
Needless to say, cries for help from the federal government will soon become overwhelming. At this point, even billionaires such as Ray Dalio are pleading for the government to do more…
As the coronavirus spread Thursday, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio said the outbreak will cost U.S. corporations up to $4 trillion, and “a lot of people are going to be broke.” “What’s happening has not happened in our lifetime before. … What we have is a crisis,” the Bridgewater founder said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “There will also be individuals who have very big losses. … There’s a need for the government to spend more money, a lot more money.”
So a broke government that is already 23.5 trillion dollars in debt is supposed to borrow and spend trillions more to bail everyone out?
Good luck with all that.
We have reached the beginning of the end.
We have reached a time when everyone and everything is going to be shaken, and life is never going to go back to the way it was before.
But as I keep stressing, now is not a time for fear.
With God’s help we can get through this, but God’s plan for your future may end up looking radically different from what your plan for the future would have looked like.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-22--Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls (Full Report)

For the last several months , we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market .
While such comments are often mistaken for “ being bearish , ” we have often stated it is our process of managing “ risk , ” which is most important .
Beginning in mid-January , we began taking profits out of our portfolios and reducing risk .
To wit : ‘ On Friday , we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits , reduce portfolio risk , and raise cash levels.
’ Importantly , we did not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash .
Since then , we took profits and rebalanced risk again in late January and early February as well .
On Friday/Monday , our ‘ limits ’ were breached , which required us to sell more.
” There are a couple of important things to understand about our current equity exposure .
To begin with , we never go to 100 % cash .
The reason is that “ psychologically ” it is too difficult for clients to start “ buying ” when the market finally bottoms .
Seeing the market begin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , makes it easier to fight the fear the market is “ going to zero.
” Secondly , and most importantly , at just 10 % in current equity exposure , the market could literally fall 100 % and our portfolios would only decline by 10 % .
( Of course , given we still have 90 % of our capital left , we can buy a tremendous amount of “ free assets.
” ) Of course , the market isn ’ t going to zero .
However , let ’ s map @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week ’ s MacroView , we discussed the “ valuation ” issue “ If our , and Mr. Rosenberg ’ s , estimates are correct of a 5-8 % recessionary drag in the second quarter of 2020 , then an average reduction in earnings of 30 % is most likely overly optimistic .
However , here is the math : At various P/E multiples , we can predict where “ fair value ” for the market is based on historical assumptions : • 20x earnings : Historically high but markets have traded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
You can pick your own level where you think P/E ’ s will account for the global recession but the chart below prices it into the market.
” The answer to the question is simply this : At the moment , the Federal Reserve is fighting a potentially losing battle – the bond market .
• After cutting rates to zero and launching QE of $ 700 billion – the markets crashed .
• The ECB starts an $ 800 billion QE program , and the markets fail to move .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the credit market , and is buying municipal bonds .
• And the market crashed more .
The Fed has literally turned on a “ garden hose ” to extinguish a literal “ bon ( d ) fire.
” This was no more evident than their action this past week to revive a program from the financial crisis called the Primary Dealer Credit Facility ( PDCF ) to bailout hedge funds and banks .
Via Mike Witney : “ The Fed is reopening its most controversial and despised crisis-era bailout facility , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facility ’ s real purpose is to transfer the toxic bonds and securities from failing financial institutions and corporations ( through an intermediary ) onto the Fed ’ s balance sheet .
The objective of this sleight of hand is to recapitalize big investors who , through their own bad bets , are now either underwater or in deep trouble .
Just like 2008 , the Fed is now doing everything in its power to save its friends and mop up the ocean of red ink that was generated during the 10-year orgy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets and a wave of deflation .
Check out this excerpt from an article at Wall Street on Parade .
Here ’ s an excerpt : “ Veterans on Wall Street think of the PDCF as the cash-for-trash facility , where Wall Street ’ s toxic waste from a decade of irresponsible trading and lending , will be purged from the balance sheets of the Wall Street firms and handed over to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve – just as it was during the last financial crisis on Wall Street.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wall Street Banks to Pledge Plunging Stocks to Get Trillions in Loans at ¼ Percent Interest ” Wall Street on Parade ) In other words , the PDCF is a landfill for distressed assets that have lost much of their value and for which there is little or no demand .
And , as bad as that sounds , the details about the resuscitated PDCF are much worse.
” If you have any doubt how bad it is in the bond market , just take a look at what happened to both investment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Charts courtesy of David Rosenberg ) As they say : “ That clearly ain ’ t normal.
” More importantly , the “ Bear Market ” won ’ t be over until the credit markets get fixed .
It was a pretty stunning week in the market .
Over the last 5-days , the market declined an astonishing , or should I say breathtaking , 15 % .
The last time we saw a one week decline of that magnitude was during the “ Lehman ” crisis .
( Of course , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is precisely what the Fed has been bailing out . )
Since the peak of the market at the end of February , the market is now down a whopping 32 % .
Surely , we are close to a bottom ?
Let ’ s revisit our daily and weekly charts for some clues as to where we are , what could happen next , and what actions to take .
On a daily basis , the market is extremely stretched and deviated to the downside .
Friday ’ s selloff smacked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where it was an “ Everything Must Go Liquidation Event.
” Remember all those headlines from early this year : This selloff completely reversed the entire advance from the 2018 lows .
That ’ s the bad news .
The good news is the markets are now more extremely oversold on a variety of measures than at just about any other point in history .
Such a reversal , particularly given the “ speed and magnitude ” of the decline , argues for a “ reversal ” of some sort .
As noted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with investors wanting to “ buy ” the market .
They end when “ everyone wants to sell.
” And , NO , investors are “ not different this time.
” This “ bear market ” rally scenario becomes more evident when we view our longer-term weekly “ sell signals.
” As we warned last week : Unfortunately , we have yet to see any attempt at a sustained rally .
More importantly , with the failure of the markets to hold lows this week , both of our long-term weekly “ sell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Such would suggest that a rally back to the “ bullish trend line ” from 2009 will likely be the best opportunity to “ sell ” before the “ bear market ” finds its final low .
Where will that low likely be : Let ’ s update our mapping from last week : • A retest of current lows that holds is a 27 % decline .
– Failed • A retest of the 2018 lows , which is most likely , an average recessionary decline of 32.8 % – Current • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coincident with a “ credit event , ” would entail a 50.9 % decline .
– Pending Possibility .
Given the magnitude , and multiple confirmations , of these signals , it is far too soon to assume the “ bear market ” is over .
This is particularly the case , given the selloff is less than one-month old .
Bear markets , and recessions , tend to last 18-months on average .
The current bear market and recession are not the result of just the “ coronavirus ” shock .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from : We likely have more to go before we can safely assume we have turned the corner .
In the meantime , use rallies to raise cash .
Don ’ t worry about trying to “ buy the bottom.
” There will be plenty of time to see “ THE ” bottom is in , and having cash will allow you to “ buy stocks ” from the last of the “ weak hands.
” If you need help or have questions , we are always glad to help .
Just email @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & Sectors For Traders Note : The technical gauge is now at the lowest level since both the “ Dot.com ” and “ Financial Crisis.
” However , note the gauge bottoms BEFORE the market bottoms .
In 2002 , lows were retested .
In 2008 , there was an additional 22 % decline into early 2009 .
Be sure and catch our updates on Major Markets ( Monday ) and Major Sectors ( Tuesday ) with updated buy/stop/sell levels For the 3rd week in a row : “ Everything was crushed again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between leading and lagging sectors is which sector fell faster or slower than the S & P 500 index itself.
” We previously reduced our weightings to Real Estate and liquidated Discretionary entirely over concerns of the virus and impact to the economy .
No change this week .
The correction in Technology last week broke support at the 200-dma but finished the week very close to the May 2019 lows .
Communication and Utilities didn ’ t perform as well but also held up better during the decline on a relative basis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Staples .
These are our core ETF ’ s right now at which we are carrying substantially reduced exposure .
No sectors in this quadrant .
No change from last week , with the exception that performance continued to be worse than the overall market .
These sectors are THE most sensitive to Fed actions ( XLF ) and the shutdown of the economy .
We eliminated all holdings in late February and early March .
Small-Cap ( SLY ) and Mid Cap ( MDY ) – Three weeks ago , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerns of the impact of the coronavirus .
Remain out of these sectors for now .
Same as small-cap and mid-cap .
Given the spread of the virus and the impact on the global supply chain .
Trading opportunities only .
S & P 500 Index ( Core Holding ) – Given the rapid deterioration of the broad market , we sold our entire core position holdings for the safety of cash .
Gold ( GLD ) – Gold broke our stop , and we sold our holdings .
We are now on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gold can climb back above the 200-dma .
Bonds collapsed last week as the “ credit event ” we have been concerned about took shape .
We had previously taken profits and reduced our bond holdings duration and increased credit quality .
We have now reduced our total bond exposure to 20 % of the portfolio from 40 % since we are only carrying 10 % equity currently .
( Rebalanced our hedge . )
The table below shows thoughts on specific actions related to the current market environment .
The S & @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in just three weeks .
However , it is important to keep some perspective on where we are currently .
Last Monday , we further reduced our equity to just 10 % ( from 25 % previously ) of the portfolio What does that mean ?
Here is some math : If the market goes to ZERO from here , ( it ’ s not going to ) your MAXIMUM loss is just 10 % .
This is recoverable , particularly if we could buy a portfolio of assets for FREE .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels of 20 % .
This would be a 2 % net hit to portfolios leaving us with a LOT of cash to buy distressed assets at 50 % off .
This is the opportunity we have been waiting for during the entire last decade .
Currently , we are busy rebuilding all of our portfolio models , rethinking risk management in a post-bear market environment , and what role the future of “ fixed income ” will play in asset allocations .
These are all essential questions that we need solid answers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position with plenty of cash , reduced bond holdings , and minimal equity exposure in companies we want to own for the next 10-years .
We are just patiently waiting to buy large chunks of these holdings soon with both stable and higher yields .
Let me assure you of four things ; • The ONLY people who care more about your money than you , is all of us at RIA Advisors .
• We will NOT “ buy the bottom ” of the market .
We will buy when we SEE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and risk/reward ratios are clearly in our favor .
• This has been THE fastest bear market in history .
We are doing our best to preserve your capital so that you meet your financial goals .
Bear markets are never fun , but they are necessary for future gains .
Please don ’ t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions , or concerns .
Model performance is based on a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only and should not be relied upon for any reason .
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results .
Use at your own risk and peril .
As an RIA PRO subscriber ( You get your first 30-days free ) you have access to our live 401k p The code will give you access to the entire site during the 401k-BETA testing process , so not only will you get to help us work out the bugs on the 401k plan manager , you can submit your comments about the rest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are building models specific to company plans .
So , if you would like to see your company plan included specifically , send me the following : • Name of the company • A print out of your plan choices .
( Fund Symbol and Fund Name ) If you would like to offer our service to your employees at a deeply discounted corporate rate , please contact me .

by Lance Roberts
“If you own 10% equities, as we do, and the market falls 100%, you will lose 10%. That said, you have 90 cents on the dollar to buy equities for free.” – Michael Lebowitz Let me explain his comment. Last week, we wrote a piece titled: Risk Limits Hit. When Too Little Is Too Much in which we discussed reducing our equity risk to our lowest levels.
For the last several months, we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market. While such comments are often mistaken for “being bearish,” we have often stated it is our process of managing “risk,” which is most important. Beginning in mid-January, we began taking profits out of our portfolios and reducing risk. To wit: ‘On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.’ Importantly, we did not ‘sell everything’ and go to cash. Since then, we took profits and rebalanced risk again in late January and early February as well. On Friday/Monday, our ‘limits’ were breached, which required us to sell more.”
There are a couple of important things to understand about our current equity exposure.
To begin with, we never go to 100% cash. The reason is that “psychologically” it is too difficult for clients to start “buying” when the market finally bottoms. Seeing the market begin to recover, along with their portfolio, makes it easier to fight the fear the market is “going to zero.”
Secondly, and most importantly, at just 10% in current equity exposure, the market could literally fall 100% and our portfolios would only decline by 10%. (Of course, given we still have 90% of our capital left, we can buy a tremendous amount of “free assets.”)
Of course, the market isn’t going to zero.
However, let’s map out a more realistic example.
In this week’s MacroView, we discussed the “valuation” issue
“If our, and Mr. Rosenberg’s, estimates are correct of a 5-8% recessionary drag in the second quarter of 2020, then an average reduction in earnings of 30% is most likely overly optimistic. However, here is the math: Current Earnings = 132.90
30% Reduction = $100 (rounding down for easier math) At various P/E multiples, we can predict where “fair value” for the market is based on historical assumptions: 20x earnings: Historically high but markets have traded at high valuations for the last decade.
Historically high but markets have traded at high valuations for the last decade. 18x earnings: Still historically high.
Still historically high. 15x earnings: Long-Term Average
Long-Term Average 13x earnings: Undervalued
Undervalued 10x earnings: Extremely undervalued but aligned with secular bear market bottoms. You can pick your own level where you think P/E’s will account for the global recession but the chart below prices it into the market.”
So, let’s assume our numbers are optimistically in the “ballpark” of a valuation reversion, and earnings are only cut by 30% while the market bottoms at 1800, or 18x earnings. (I say optimistically because normal valuation reversions are 15x earnings or less.) Here’s the math: For a “buy and hold” investor (who is already down 20-30% from the peak) will lose an additional 22%.
For a client with 10% equity exposure, they will lose an additional 2.2%. When the market does eventually bottom, and it will, it will be far easier for our clients to recover 10% of their portfolio versus 50% for most “buy and hold” strategies. As we have often stated, “getting back to even is not an investment strategy.” Is The Bear Market Over? This is THE QUESTION for investors. Here are a few articles from the past couple of days: Here’s A Few Reasons It Might Be A Good Time To Buy – Motley Fool
Time To Start Bottom Fishing – RBC
6-Signals Say A Bottom Is In – CNBC And then you have clueless economists, like Brian Wesbury from First Trust, who have never seen a “bear market,” or “recession,” until it’s over. March 6th. Why is this important? Because “bear markets don’t bottom with optimism, they end with despair.” As I wrote last week: “Bob Farrell, a legendary investor, is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend – Rule #8 Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate. Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between. The chart above shows the stages of the last two primary cyclical bear markets versus today (the 2020 scale has been adjusted to match.)
The answer to the question is simply this:
“When is it time to start buying the market? When you do NOT want to.”
Bond Market Implosion
At the moment, the Federal Reserve is fighting a potentially losing battle – the bond market.
After cutting rates to zero and launching QE of $700 billion – the markets crashed.
The ECB starts an $800 billion QE program, and the markets fail to move.
The Fed injected liquidity into money markets, the credit market, and is buying municipal bonds.
And the market crashed more.
The Fed has literally turned on a “garden hose” to extinguish a literal “bon(d)fire.”
This was no more evident than their action this past week to revive a program from the financial crisis called the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to bailout hedge funds and banks. Via Mike Witney:
“The Fed is reopening its most controversial and despised crisis-era bailout facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. The facility’s real purpose is to transfer the toxic bonds and securities from failing financial institutions and corporations (through an intermediary) onto the Fed’s balance sheet. The objective of this sleight of hand is to recapitalize big investors who, through their own bad bets, are now either underwater or in deep trouble. Just like 2008, the Fed is now doing everything in its power to save its friends and mop up the ocean of red ink that was generated during the 10-year orgy of speculation that has ended in crashing markets and a wave of deflation. Check out this excerpt from an article at Wall Street on Parade. Here’s an excerpt: “Veterans on Wall Street think of the PDCF as the cash-for-trash facility, where Wall Street’s toxic waste from a decade of irresponsible trading and lending, will be purged from the balance sheets of the Wall Street firms and handed over to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve – just as it was during the last financial crisis on Wall Street.” – (“Fed Announces Program for Wall Street Banks to Pledge Plunging Stocks to Get Trillions in Loans at ¼ Percent Interest” Wall Street on Parade) In other words, the PDCF is a landfill for distressed assets that have lost much of their value and for which there is little or no demand. And, as bad as that sounds, the details about the resuscitated PDCF are much worse.”
If you have any doubt how bad it is in the bond market, just take a look at what happened to both investment grade and junk bond spreads. (Charts courtesy of David Rosenberg)
As they say: “That clearly ain’t normal.”
More importantly, the “Bear Market” won’t be over until the credit markets get fixed.
Hunting The Bear
It was a pretty stunning week in the market. Over the last 5-days, the market declined an astonishing, or should I say breathtaking, 15%. The last time we saw a one week decline of that magnitude was during the “Lehman” crisis. (Of course, with hedge funds blowing up all week, this is precisely what the Fed has been bailing out.)
Since the peak of the market at the end of February, the market is now down a whopping 32%.
Surely, we are close to a bottom?
Let’s revisit our daily and weekly charts for some clues as to where we are, what could happen next, and what actions to take.
On a daily basis, the market is extremely stretched and deviated to the downside. Friday’s selloff smacked of an “Oriental Rug Company” where it was an “Everything Must Go Liquidation Event.”
Remember all those headlines from early this year:
Well….
This selloff completely reversed the entire advance from the 2018 lows. That’s the bad news.
The good news is the markets are now more extremely oversold on a variety of measures than at just about any other point in history.
Such a reversal, particularly given the “speed and magnitude” of the decline, argues for a “reversal” of some sort.
Warning: Any reversal will NOT BE the bear market bottom. It will be a “bear market” rally you will want to “sell” into. The reason is there are still many investors trapped in “buy and hold” and “passive indexing” strategies which are actively seeking an exit. Any rallies will be met with redemptions.
As noted above, bear markets do not end with investors wanting to “buy” the market. They end when “everyone wants to sell.”
And, NO, investors are “not different this time.”
This “bear market” rally scenario becomes more evident when we view our longer-term weekly “sell signals.” As we warned last week:
“With all of our signals now triggered from fairly high levels, it suggests the current selloff is not over as of yet. In other words, we will see a rally, followed by a secondary failure to lower lows, before the ultimate bottom is put in.”
Unfortunately, we have yet to see any attempt at a sustained rally.
More importantly, with the failure of the markets to hold lows this week, both of our long-term weekly “sell signals” have now been triggered. Such would suggest that a rally back to the “bullish trend line” from 2009 will likely be the best opportunity to “sell” before the “bear market” finds its final low.
Where will that low likely be:
Let’s update our mapping from last week:
A retest of current lows that holds is a 27% decline. – Failed A retest of the 2018 lows, which is most likely, an average recessionary decline of 32.8% – Current A retest of the 2016 lows, coincident with a “credit event,” would entail a 50.9% decline. – Pending Possibility.
Given the magnitude, and multiple confirmations, of these signals, it is far too soon to assume the “bear market” is over. This is particularly the case, given the selloff is less than one-month old.
Bear markets, and recessions, tend to last 18-months on average.
The current bear market and recession are not the result of just the “coronavirus” shock. It is the result of many simultaneous shocks from:
Economic disruption
Surging unemployment
Oil price shock
Collapsing consumer confidence, and
A “credit event.”
We likely have more to go before we can safely assume we have turned the corner.
In the meantime, use rallies to raise cash. Don’t worry about trying to “buy the bottom.” There will be plenty of time to see “THE” bottom is in, and having cash will allow you to “buy stocks” from the last of the “weak hands.”
The MacroView If you need help or have questions, we are always glad to help. Just email me. See You Next Week By Lance Roberts, CIO Market & Sector Analysis Data Analysis Of The Market & Sectors For Traders S&P 500 Tear Sheet Performance Analysis Technical Composite Note: The technical gauge is now at the lowest level since both the “Dot.com” and “Financial Crisis.” However, note the gauge bottoms BEFORE the market bottoms. In 2002, lows were retested. In 2008, there was an additional 22% decline into early 2009. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! ETF Model Relative Performance Analysis Sector & Market Analysis: Be sure and catch our updates on Major Markets (Monday) and Major Sectors (Tuesday) with updated buy/stop/sell levels Sector-by-Sector For the 3rd week in a row: “Everything was crushed again this past week, so the difference between leading and lagging sectors is which sector fell faster or slower than the S&P 500 index itself.” Improving – Discretionary (XLY), and Real Estate (XLRE) We previously reduced our weightings to Real Estate and liquidated Discretionary entirely over concerns of the virus and impact to the economy. No change this week. Current Positions: 1.2 weight XLRE Outperforming – Technology (XLK), Communications (XLC), Staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV), and Utilities (XLU) The correction in Technology last week broke support at the 200-dma but finished the week very close to the May 2019 lows. Communication and Utilities didn’t perform as well but also held up better during the decline on a relative basis. The same is true for Utilities and Staples. These are our core ETF’s right now at which we are carrying substantially reduced exposure. Current Positions: 1/2 weight XLK, XLC, XLU, XLP, XLV Weakening – None No sectors in this quadrant. Current Position: None Lagging – Industrials (XLI), Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB), and Energy (XLE) No change from last week, with the exception that performance continued to be worse than the overall market. These sectors are THE most sensitive to Fed actions (XLF) and the shutdown of the economy. We eliminated all holdings in late February and early March. Current Position: None Market By Market Small-Cap (SLY) and Mid Cap (MDY) – Three weeks ago, we sold all small-cap and mid-cap exposure over concerns of the impact of the coronavirus. Remain out of these sectors for now. Current Position: None Emerging, International (EEM) & Total International Markets (EFA) Same as small-cap and mid-cap. Given the spread of the virus and the impact on the global supply chain. Trading opportunities only. Current Position: None S&P 500 Index (Core Holding) – Given the rapid deterioration of the broad market, we sold our entire core position holdings for the safety of cash. Current Position: None Gold (GLD) – Gold broke our stop, and we sold our holdings. We are now on the watch for an entry point if Gold can climb back above the 200-dma. Current Position: None Bonds (TLT) – Bonds collapsed last week as the “credit event” we have been concerned about took shape. We had previously taken profits and reduced our bond holdings duration and increased credit quality. We have now reduced our total bond exposure to 20% of the portfolio from 40% since we are only carrying 10% equity currently. (Rebalanced our hedge.) Current Positions: SHY, IEF, BIL Sector / Market Recommendations The table below shows thoughts on specific actions related to the current market environment. (These are not recommendations or solicitations to take any action. This is for informational purposes only related to market extremes and contrarian positioning within portfolios. Use at your own risk and peril.) Portfolio/Client Update: I know it is ugly. The S&P 500 is down nearly 32% in just three weeks. That’s scary. However, it is important to keep some perspective on where we are currently. Last Monday, we further reduced our equity to just 10% (from 25% previously) of the portfolio What does that mean? Here is some math: If the market goes to ZERO from here, (it’s not going to) your MAXIMUM loss is just 10%. This is recoverable, particularly if we could buy a portfolio of assets for FREE. We currently expect a maximum decline from current levels of 20%. This would be a 2% net hit to portfolios leaving us with a LOT of cash to buy distressed assets at 50% off. This is the opportunity we have been waiting for during the entire last decade. Currently, we are busy rebuilding all of our portfolio models, rethinking risk management in a post-bear market environment, and what role the future of “fixed income” will play in asset allocations. These are all essential questions that we need solid answers for. We are in an excellent position with plenty of cash, reduced bond holdings, and minimal equity exposure in companies we want to own for the next 10-years. We are just patiently waiting to buy large chunks of these holdings soon with both stable and higher yields. Let me assure you of four things; The ONLY people who care more about your money than you, is all of us at RIA Advisors. We will NOT “buy the bottom” of the market. We will buy when we SEE the bottom of the market is in and risk/reward ratios are clearly in our favor. This has been THE fastest bear market in history. We are doing our best to preserve your capital so that you meet your financial goals. Bear markets are never fun, but they are necessary for future gains. We’ve got this. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions, or concerns. Lance Roberts CIO THE REAL 401k PLAN MANAGER A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors Model performance is based on a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter. This is strictly for informational and educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any reason. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Use at your own risk and peril. 401k Plan Manager Live Model As an RIA PRO subscriber (You get your first 30-days free) you have access to our live 401k p The code will give you access to the entire site during the 401k-BETA testing process, so not only will you get to help us work out the bugs on the 401k plan manager, you can submit your comments about the rest of the site as well. We are building models specific to company plans. So, if you would like to see your company plan included specifically, send me the following: Name of the company
Plan Sponsor
A print out of your plan choices. (Fund Symbol and Fund Name) If you would like to offer our service to your employees at a deeply discounted corporate rate, please contact me.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-22--The Ease And Speed Of Governments’ Reactions Should At Least Make Us Stop And Think

“ Trust the state .
Do what they say .
They ’ ve never lied to us before , have they ?
” – Daniel McAdams , Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity Central bankers are washing their hands too Looking at the carnage that stock markets have suffered , it ’ s not surprising to see central banks jumping in to save the day .
It ’ s even less surprising to see them all deploy the very same remedies that have long stopped working , only in astronomically higher doses .
Of course , rate cutting and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything for the ordinary citizen , but it ’ s a strategy that was known to make stock markets happy .
Until now , that is .
Because this time , not even the Fed bringing back ZIRP was enough to stop the plunge .
Perhaps even mainstream investors and speculators finally realized that central bankers can do nothing against an actual economic disaster ; all they ’ re good for is blowing up asset bubbles .
Nevertheless , even though all major central banks failed to reassure markets and to halt their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pass measures and policies that would have otherwise been widely criticized .
A full-on return to massive QE and to zero rates was unthinkable a few weeks ago , even though most central bankers had already shifted to that direction , with smaller rate cuts , relatively modest asset purchases in the case of the ECB and regular but discreet repo injections in the case of the Fed .
Put plainly , the coronavirus provided an excellent reason to accelerate what was in the works for months already .
Almost overnight , every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planet went back to the easing path and fired up the printing press .
Central bankers all over the world are now echoing Mario Draghi ’ s infamous “ whatever it takes ” line , trying to reassure investors , banks and the public that they will handle the fallout from the coronavirus crisis .
Of course , as their credibility lies shattered , it is no surprise that no one is really convinced .
Their existing tools and their “ ammunition ” are all by now spent and inefficient , so trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
That leaves them with an increasingly talked about scenario , that is to expand their toolkit .
Given the scale of the economic destruction and , more importantly , of the panic that is sweeping through the markets and the institutions , we could see significant efforts towards a wider remit , an extension of central bank authority and a capacity to go outside their old policy confines .
In this case , we can expect to see new and even more aggressive policy experiments .
In fact , we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already .
Helicopter money is now being openly and seriously discussed as a policy option .
In late February , Hong Kong ’ s government already directly transferred over $ 1,200 to every adult citizen .
Even Larry Kudlow , the economic advisor to President Trump said in an interview on Fox News that helicopter money is under consideration .
Of course , one doesn ’ t need to be an economist to see the catastrophic potential of these policies .
However , in this climate of widespread terror , all criticism over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as the focus is instead fixed on short-term “ solutions ” and on whatever measure promises to deliver even the slightest relief instantly , no matter the cost and the consequences down the line .
For governments , the crisis also provided an avenue to exercise extraordinary powers , the likes of which we haven ’ t seen since WWII .
We could debate for days the wisdom , the net benefits and the scientific merit behind the extreme measures that were passed in most of Europe and the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could compare and contrast the available research , the projected efficacy of the various shutdowns , from schools to small shops , and the various expert opinions and papers on the matter .
Of course , in order to do that , we ’ d have to dig up these facts and figures ourselves , as in most cases , they were never provided to the public in their fullness before the new rules went into effect , as a justification of the governments ’ actions .
However , what can not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the measures and the degree of muscle flexing that governments displayed .
Especially in Europe , entire nations were forced to a standstill within days , business were closed by executive decree and under pain of imprisonment , while civilians were ordered to isolate themselves in their own homes .
In Spain , police drones are flying over empty streets to ensure compliance to the new rules .
In France , citizens can not leave their homes without a special form they must fill out stating their reason for going out .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ total of 5 deaths since the onset of the disease , there have been 143 arrests for non-compliance with the new rules within 5 days of their enforcement .
Whether one agrees that these steps are needed to protect public health or believes them to be overreactions is entirely beside the point .
The fact remains that such restrictions on free movement and the suspension of basic rights are unheard of during peacetime and the ease and speed with which they came to pass should at least make us stop and think .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ construed as an offhand dismissal of the risks of the disease .
It is not an encouragement to behave irresponsibly and to act against common sense , nor do I think that any number of deaths , no matter how low , is ever to be considered as “ insignificant ” .
However , I do feel that the health risks resulting from this virus , considerable as they may be , are of a temporary nature .
By contrast , the risks resulting from the governments ’ reaction to it are likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much higher toll down the line , and not just from the vulnerable groups , but from all of us .
It therefore worth pondering , if there really is such a thing as a delicate balance to be struck between liberty and security .
History has taught us that “ emergency ” powers and “ temporary ” measures tend to stick around long after the crisis that gave birth to them has passed .
We saw this with the PATRIOT Act , we saw it with the extraordinary monetary policies that central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2008 crash .
History has also taught us that trading liberty for safety is always a losing deal , and as Benjamin Franklin once observed , those who do , deserve neither .

by Claudio Grass of ClaudioGrass.ch
“Trust the state. Do what they say. They’ve never lied to us before, have they?” – Daniel McAdams, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
Central bankers are washing their hands too
Looking at the carnage that stock markets have suffered, it’s not surprising to see central banks jumping in to save the day. It’s even less surprising to see them all deploy the very same remedies that have long stopped working, only in astronomically higher doses. Of course, rate cutting and massive money printing might have never done anything for the ordinary citizen, but it’s a strategy that was known to make stock markets happy. Until now, that is. Because this time, not even the Fed bringing back ZIRP was enough to stop the plunge. Perhaps even mainstream investors and speculators finally realized that central bankers can do nothing against an actual economic disaster; all they’re good for is blowing up asset bubbles.
Nevertheless, even though all major central banks failed to reassure markets and to halt their relentless fall, they still managed to pass measures and policies that would have otherwise been widely criticized. A full-on return to massive QE and to zero rates was unthinkable a few weeks ago, even though most central bankers had already shifted to that direction, with smaller rate cuts, relatively modest asset purchases in the case of the ECB and regular but discreet repo injections in the case of the Fed. Put plainly, the coronavirus provided an excellent reason to accelerate what was in the works for months already. Almost overnight, every central bank on the face of the planet went back to the easing path and fired up the printing press.
Central bankers all over the world are now echoing Mario Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” line, trying to reassure investors, banks and the public that they will handle the fallout from the coronavirus crisis. Of course, as their credibility lies shattered, it is no surprise that no one is really convinced. Their existing tools and their “ammunition” are all by now spent and inefficient, so trying more of the same is unlikely to work. That leaves them with an increasingly talked about scenario, that is to expand their toolkit. Given the scale of the economic destruction and, more importantly, of the panic that is sweeping through the markets and the institutions, we could see significant efforts towards a wider remit, an extension of central bank authority and a capacity to go outside their old policy confines. In this case, we can expect to see new and even more aggressive policy experiments.
In fact, we’re seeing significant moves toward that direction already. Helicopter money is now being openly and seriously discussed as a policy option. In late February, Hong Kong’s government already directly transferred over $1,200 to every adult citizen. Even Larry Kudlow, the economic advisor to President Trump said in an interview on Fox News that helicopter money is under consideration.
Of course, one doesn’t need to be an economist to see the catastrophic potential of these policies. However, in this climate of widespread terror, all criticism over systemic and irreversible damage is shut down, as the focus is instead fixed on short-term “solutions” and on whatever measure promises to deliver even the slightest relief instantly, no matter the cost and the consequences down the line.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Opportunity knocks
For governments, the crisis also provided an avenue to exercise extraordinary powers, the likes of which we haven’t seen since WWII. We could debate for days the wisdom, the net benefits and the scientific merit behind the extreme measures that were passed in most of Europe and the rest of the world to combat the virus. We could compare and contrast the available research, the projected efficacy of the various shutdowns, from schools to small shops, and the various expert opinions and papers on the matter. Of course, in order to do that, we’d have to dig up these facts and figures ourselves, as in most cases, they were never provided to the public in their fullness before the new rules went into effect, as a justification of the governments’ actions.
However, what cannot be disputed is the swiftness and the scale of the measures and the degree of muscle flexing that governments displayed. Especially in Europe, entire nations were forced to a standstill within days, business were closed by executive decree and under pain of imprisonment, while civilians were ordered to isolate themselves in their own homes. In Spain, police drones are flying over empty streets to ensure compliance to the new rules. In France, citizens cannot leave their homes without a special form they must fill out stating their reason for going out. In Greece, a country with a total of 5 deaths since the onset of the disease, there have been 143 arrests for non-compliance with the new rules within 5 days of their enforcement.
Whether one agrees that these steps are needed to protect public health or believes them to be overreactions is entirely beside the point. The fact remains that such restrictions on free movement and the suspension of basic rights are unheard of during peacetime and the ease and speed with which they came to pass should at least make us stop and think.
None of this is meant to be construed as an offhand dismissal of the risks of the disease. It is not an encouragement to behave irresponsibly and to act against common sense, nor do I think that any number of deaths, no matter how low, is ever to be considered as “insignificant”. However, I do feel that the health risks resulting from this virus, considerable as they may be, are of a temporary nature. By contrast, the risks resulting from the governments’ reaction to it are likely to last much longer and take a much higher toll down the line, and not just from the vulnerable groups, but from all of us.
It therefore worth pondering, if there really is such a thing as a delicate balance to be struck between liberty and security. History has taught us that “emergency” powers and “temporary” measures tend to stick around long after the crisis that gave birth to them has passed. We saw this with the PATRIOT Act, we saw it with the extraordinary monetary policies that central banks maintained for a decade after the 2008 crash. History has also taught us that trading liberty for safety is always a losing deal, and as Benjamin Franklin once observed, those who do, deserve neither.
Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-22--Some Cities Stop Arresting Minor Criminals Due To Coronavirus, Other Places Warn Of Murder Charges F

Some Cities Stop Arresting Minor Criminals Due To Coronavirus, Other Places Warn Of Murder Charges For Infected People Who Break Quarantine

Well , at least there ’ s a bit of good news from the Corona Virus .
In a few cases , it at least seems to be making government more efficient , and calls into question why so much bureaucracy existed to begin with .
We think there ’ s a LOT more to come in terms of streamlining government .
Millions of people will lose their jobs , and that includes government workers too .
With tax revenue drying up , federal , state , and local governments will have to lay off employees too… and by consequence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ streamline their operations and ease bureaucracy .
Once the virus finally starts to die down , they ’ re also going to have to eliminate red tape to help businesses jumpstart back to life .
We ’ re seeing some very early signs of that : With cases of Covid-19 rising in Massachusetts , Governor Charlie Baker took emergency action .
In order to ensure enough medical professionals are available to deal with the health crisis , the Massachusetts Board of Registration in Nursing is easing requirements .
Baker said the board , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will make it possible for licensed , out-of-state medical professionals and nurses to become licensed here in Massachusetts in one day.
” Currently , according to the state ’ s website , it takes an average of 16 weeks for licensed out of state medical workers to apply for and receive their Massachusetts medical license .
Apparently the unnecessary paperwork and fees aren ’ t there to make people safer… So if you can do-away with the bureaucracy in an emergency , did you ever really need it to begin with ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Baltimore is among a growing number of cities and counties dropping prosecution of petty crimes during the Covid-19 pandemic .
The idea is to stop overcrowding of jails where the virus could quickly spread , as well as free up law enforcement resources .
Baltimore will stop arresting , and dismiss pending charges , for crimes like drug possession , prostitution , minor traffic infractions , etc .
In her explanation for the move , the State ’ s Attorney for Baltimore said that these crimes pose no threat to the public , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So if they pose no threat to the public , why were they ever illegal ?
She continued , “ Jails and prisons cycle large numbers of people in and out of close , unsanitary quarters on a daily basis.
” So is that usually fine… to cycle petty criminals through close , unsanitary quarters ?
The government is admitting that these victimless crimes needlessly send people to jail , put them into the criminal justice system , and waste tax dollars .
Whatever laws and regulations that can be abandoned during a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the books in the first place .
Click here for the full story .
Italy is currently the hardest hit place on earth from Covid-19 .
With an elderly population , and socialized healthcare , there aren ’ t enough resources to treat everyone infected .
So in an attempt to slow the spread of the contagion , they are resorting to draconian measures .
Italian authorities are warning that people who show signs of sickness but don ’ t self-quarantine could face murder charges .
If you ignore symptoms of Covid-19 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dies from it , you could spend up to 21 years in prison for murder .
Italians could also face six years in prison for lying about why they are travelling .
Currently it is illegal to travel for any reason other than work , food , or medical needs .
And any “ public officials ” ( which includes doctors ) who become aware of one of these crimes is obligated to report it , or face charges for failure to report .
Click here for the full story .
Andre Patterson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He was a male when he committed the crimes , but now identifies as female .
And according to a federal judge , Illinois is not allowed to make housing assignments based on physical appearance , or genitals .
So Andre was transferred to a woman ’ s prison , where “ her ” male genitals were used to rape a female cell-mate .
Other women at the prison also filed complaints against Patterson for sexual assault .
But when corrections officers tried to transfer Patterson back to a men ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intervened to stop it .
Click here for the full story .

by Simon Black of Sovereign Man
Well, at least there’s a bit of good news from the Corona Virus. In a few cases, it at least seems to be making government more efficient, and calls into question why so much bureaucracy existed to begin with.
We think there’s a LOT more to come in terms of streamlining government.
Millions of people will lose their jobs, and that includes government workers too. With tax revenue drying up, federal, state, and local governments will have to lay off employees too… and by consequence, they’ll be forced to streamline their operations and ease bureaucracy.
Once the virus finally starts to die down, they’re also going to have to eliminate red tape to help businesses jumpstart back to life.
We’re seeing some very early signs of that:
Amid pandemic Massachusetts eases out-of-state medical licensing
With cases of Covid-19 rising in Massachusetts, Governor Charlie Baker took emergency action.
In order to ensure enough medical professionals are available to deal with the health crisis, the Massachusetts Board of Registration in Nursing is easing requirements.
Baker said the board, “put in place an emergency procedure that will make it possible for licensed, out-of-state medical professionals and nurses to become licensed here in Massachusetts in one day.”
Currently, according to the state’s website, it takes an average of 16 weeks for licensed out of state medical workers to apply for and receive their Massachusetts medical license.
Apparently the unnecessary paperwork and fees aren’t there to make people safer…
So if you can do-away with the bureaucracy in an emergency, did you ever really need it to begin with?
Click here for the full story.
Cities stop arresting minor criminals due to coronavirus
Baltimore is among a growing number of cities and counties dropping prosecution of petty crimes during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The idea is to stop overcrowding of jails where the virus could quickly spread, as well as free up law enforcement resources.
Baltimore will stop arresting, and dismiss pending charges, for crimes like drug possession, prostitution, minor traffic infractions, etc.
In her explanation for the move, the State’s Attorney for Baltimore said that these crimes pose no threat to the public, i.e. they are victimless crimes.
So if they pose no threat to the public, why were they ever illegal?
She continued, “Jails and prisons cycle large numbers of people in and out of close, unsanitary quarters on a daily basis.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
So is that usually fine… to cycle petty criminals through close, unsanitary quarters?
The government is admitting that these victimless crimes needlessly send people to jail, put them into the criminal justice system, and waste tax dollars.
Whatever laws and regulations that can be abandoned during a crisis should probably never have been on the books in the first place.
Click here for the full story.
Murder charges for Sick Italians who don’t quarantine
Italy is currently the hardest hit place on earth from Covid-19.
With an elderly population, and socialized healthcare, there aren’t enough resources to treat everyone infected.
So in an attempt to slow the spread of the contagion, they are resorting to draconian measures.
Italian authorities are warning that people who show signs of sickness but don’t self-quarantine could face murder charges.
If you ignore symptoms of Covid-19, and spread the illness to someone who dies from it, you could spend up to 21 years in prison for murder.
Italians could also face six years in prison for lying about why they are travelling. Currently it is illegal to travel for any reason other than work, food, or medical needs.
And any “public officials” (which includes doctors) who become aware of one of these crimes is obligated to report it, or face charges for failure to report.
Click here for the full story.
Trans prisoner put in women’s prison rapes female inmate
Andre Patterson is in prison for murdering two people.
He was a male when he committed the crimes, but now identifies as female.
And according to a federal judge, Illinois is not allowed to make housing assignments based on physical appearance, or genitals.
So Andre was transferred to a woman’s prison, where “her” male genitals were used to rape a female cell-mate.
Other women at the prison also filed complaints against Patterson for sexual assault.
But when corrections officers tried to transfer Patterson back to a men’s prison, the Governor’s office intervened to stop it.
Click here for the full story.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-22--Theory: A debt jubilee is coming

Theory: A debt jubilee is coming

The massive over-reaction to a supposed killer virus is being used to mask and provide cover for a debt jubilee for the average person and business , devalue the dollar to make it more competitive internationally , and also allow the US to default on it ’ s international debt .
The simple fact is the debt overhang is so large , it can not be paid back ; and if it can not be paid off then it won ’ t be .
Default is assured but the only question is ‘ how ’ ?
Outright default could lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the “ I paid off my debts and worked ever so hard ; why should anyone else get a break ” dullard class .
So it has to be given cover – and shutting down entire states thus completely destroying tax revenue , while simultaneously ramping up their costs via unemployment and more social spending will provide that cover .
Toss in a few thousand dollars in direct payment to the population and that further burdens the Treasury .
In the end debt gets dialed back to zero , the USD is removed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not the brier-patch , Br ’ er Fox ! )
, and a massive economic boom results as all the cashflow going to service debt can be poured into actually spending of goods or on savings , which are another word for capital .
Loss of Reserve Currency for the USD is needed before the US can return manufacturing , as the nation that holds the RC must run a current accounts deficit ( Triffin Dilemma ) .
A global default would do so .

by SleepNowMyThrowaway
The massive over-reaction to a supposed killer virus is being used to mask and provide cover for a debt jubilee for the average person and business, devalue the dollar to make it more competitive internationally, and also allow the US to default on it’s international debt.
The simple fact is the debt overhang is so large, it cannot be paid back; and if it cannot be paid off then it won’t be. Default is assured but the only question is ‘how’?
Outright default could lead to war, and to disillusionment among the “I paid off my debts and worked ever so hard; why should anyone else get a break” dullard class.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
So it has to be given cover – and shutting down entire states thus completely destroying tax revenue, while simultaneously ramping up their costs via unemployment and more social spending will provide that cover.
Toss in a few thousand dollars in direct payment to the population and that further burdens the Treasury.
In the end debt gets dialed back to zero, the USD is removed as reserve currency (Oh no! Not the brier-patch, Br’er Fox!), and a massive economic boom results as all the cashflow going to service debt can be poured into actually spending of goods or on savings, which are another word for capital.
Loss of Reserve Currency for the USD is needed before the US can return manufacturing, as the nation that holds the RC must run a current accounts deficit (Triffin Dilemma). A global default would do so.