investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--Technically Speaking: Chase Momentum Until Fundamentals Matter

On Monday , the markets surged on hopes for a “ virus vaccine ” and encouraging words for the Federal Reserve that liquidity isn ’ t going away .
Such puts us in the awkward position of having to chase market momentum , knowing fundamentals will eventually matter .
As portfolio managers , we are in the unfortunate position of having to deliver performance for our clients .
Such means that while “ fundamentals ” paint a very an inferior risk/reward environment for investors , momentum continues to trump reason .
Jerome Powell ’ s promise of “ unlimited liquidity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was all the markets needed on Monday to take out the trading range .
I certainly understand it seems like “ fundamentals don ’ t matter.
” However , eventually , they will .
For now , the excuse is that markets are looking “ past ” 2020 and into 2021 .
While such may indeed be the case , there are two problems with that assessment .
• The current advance is pricing in the best possible outcomes in the future , i.e.
, a “ v-shaped ” economic recovery , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak .
A failure on any , or all , of those outcomes , will leave a void beneath stocks .
• With earnings estimates already dropping for 2020 and 2021 , investors who are looking past 2020 are banking on a “ hockey stick ” recovery in earnings .
However , there is more than a substantial risk earnings fall a lot more before they start to recover .
We addressed the second point in “ Stuck In The Middle : ” But it isn ’ t just me , Goldman Sachs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chart courtesy of ZeroHedge ) All That Matters Is Momentum Despite the fundamental problems , all that matters currently is the Fed .
With momentum pushing stocks higher , as noted above , we have to allow for participation in portfolios while managing inherent risk .
The breakout of the month-long consolidation range to the upside , and above the 61.8 % retracement level is indeed bullish .
The “ gap up ” opening on Monday also flipped the short-term “ sell signals ” back to “ buy , ” which suggests we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next couple of days .
The “ bad news , ” if you want to call it that , is the market is now wrestling with both the 200-dma , and the previously broken uptrend line .
This level of resistance will be important for the “ bulls ” to conquer if the markets are going to push higher in the near term .
If the “ momentum ” trade can indeed break above the 200-dma there is little to stop the market from rallying back to 3100 .
However , the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the upside in the short-term .
The last time the market was at 2900 , we laid out the risk/reward suggesting there was downside risk to the 50-dma .
The sell-off last week approached that level of support .
With the rally and breakout , yesterday , we can re-evaluate those risk/reward brackets .
• -5.5 % to last week ’ s lows vs. 1.4 % to the 200-dma .
Risk/reward negative .
• -7.6 % to the 50 % retracement/50-dma vs. 5.6 % to the March peak .
Risk/reward negative .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vs. 9.1 % to January ’ s bottom .
Risk/reward negative .
• -24.1 % to the March 23rd low vs. 14.5 % to all-time highs : Risk/reward negative .
While it may not seem like it at the moment , the risk of a downside retracement , as we head into summer months , outweighs the current upside .
Importantly , this does NOT mean the markets can ’ t rally to all-time highs .
It is possible .
It is also just as likely that things do go as smoothly as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March lows .
Such is why we have to weigh the risk and reward of chasing markets .
With seasonal sell signals in place , we are very focused on our positioning .
Over the last couple of weeks , we have continued to increase our equity exposure .
However , as noted previously , we continue to do so in areas that remain defensive , currently out of favor , or opportunistic .
We also balanced our increases in “ risk ” exposure with matched weights in shorter-duration Treasury bonds , gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk .
Yes , we are clearly chasing momentum at the moment .
However , we do so with a clear understanding of our risk , reward , and overall net positioning .
We continue also to hold a larger than normal level of cash to mitigate volatility risk .
As portfolio managers , we have an obligation to our clients to “ make money ” when we can .
We have a “ fiduciary duty ” to protect them from significant declines that would destroy their financial plans .
The Pin That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market going forward , as noted , is that markets have priced in a speedy recovery back to pre-recession norms , no secondary outbreak of the virus , and a vaccine .
If such does turn out to be the case , the Federal Reserve will have a very big problem .
The “ unlimited QE ” bazooka is dependent on the Fed needing to monetize the deficit and support economic growth .
However , if the goals of full employment and economic growth are quickly reached , the Fed will face a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put the Fed into a very tight box .
The surge in inflation will limit their ability to continue “ unlimited QE ” without further exacerbating the inflation problem .
However , if they don ’ t “ monetize ” the deficit through their “ QE ” program , interest rates will surge , leading to an economic recession .
It ’ s worse for consumers as the Fed ’ s actions have historically operated as a “ wealth transfer ” system from the middle-class to the rich .
The only outcome that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without an inflationary surge is for fundamentals to matter ultimately .
A reversion in asset prices will provide the cover needed to continue monetary interventions , but it also means “ bullish case ” didn ’ t work out as expected .
Of course , this has always been the case historically .
Just as the “ Coyote ” always wound up going over the cliff when chasing the “ Roadrunner , ” excessive bullish optimism is always met with disappointment .

by Lance Roberts
On Monday, the markets surged on hopes for a “virus vaccine” and encouraging words for the Federal Reserve that liquidity isn’t going away. Such puts us in the awkward position of having to chase market momentum, knowing fundamentals will eventually matter.
As portfolio managers, we are in the unfortunate position of having to deliver performance for our clients. Such means that while “fundamentals” paint a very an inferior risk/reward environment for investors, momentum continues to trump reason.
As I noted in “The Great Divide:”
“The juxtaposition between economic data and the ‘bull market’ in stocks is quite astonishing.”
“In other words, to no one’s real surprise, the driver of the market is simply ‘The Fed.’ As the Fed engages in ‘QE,’ it increases the “excess reserves” of banks. Since banks are NOT lending to consumers or businesses, that excess liquidity flows into the stock market.”
Jerome Powell’s promise of “unlimited liquidity” on Sunday’s 60-minutes interview was all the markets needed on Monday to take out the trading range.
Fundamentals Will Matter
I certainly understand it seems like “fundamentals don’t matter.” However, eventually, they will.
For now, the excuse is that markets are looking “past” 2020 and into 2021. While such may indeed be the case, there are two problems with that assessment.
The current advance is pricing in the best possible outcomes in the future, i.e., a “v-shaped” economic recovery, a successful vaccine, and no secondary viral outbreak. A failure on any, or all, of those outcomes, will leave a void beneath stocks. With earnings estimates already dropping for 2020 and 2021, investors who are looking past 2020 are banking on a “hockey stick” recovery in earnings. However, there is more than a substantial risk earnings fall a lot more before they start to recover.
We addressed the second point in “Stuck In The Middle:”
“The other problem is investors remain overly optimistic about the recovery prospects for earnings going into 2021. As shown, in April 2019, estimates for the S&P 500 was $174/share (reported earnings) at the end of 2020. Today, estimates for Q4-2021 now reside at $147/share. Such is a 15% contraction in estimates when we are discussing a 30-40% decline in GDP.”
“With expectations for the S&P 500 to return to all-time highs in 2021, such would mean that valuations currently paid by investors remain at historically high levels.”
But it isn’t just me, Goldman Sachs is showing the same thing. (Chart courtesy of ZeroHedge)
“Goldman is lowering its EPS growth estimates for 3Q to -30% (from -21%) and no longer sees a full recovery in the fourth quarter, instead of expecting Q4 EPS to be down -17%Y/Y (from +27%) “to reflect a more gradual recovery with quarterly EPS remaining below 2019 levels for the full year.”
All That Matters Is Momentum
Despite the fundamental problems, all that matters currently is the Fed. With momentum pushing stocks higher, as noted above, we have to allow for participation in portfolios while managing inherent risk.
The breakout of the month-long consolidation range to the upside, and above the 61.8% retracement level is indeed bullish.
The “gap up” opening on Monday also flipped the short-term “sell signals” back to “buy,” which suggests we could potentially see some follow-through over the next couple of days.
The “bad news,” if you want to call it that, is the market is now wrestling with both the 200-dma, and the previously broken uptrend line. This level of resistance will be important for the “bulls” to conquer if the markets are going to push higher in the near term.
If the “momentum” trade can indeed break above the 200-dma there is little to stop the market from rallying back to 3100. However, the more extreme overbought conditions will also potentially limit the upside in the short-term.
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Re-Evaluating Risk & Reward
The last time the market was at 2900, we laid out the risk/reward suggesting there was downside risk to the 50-dma. The sell-off last week approached that level of support. With the rally and breakout, yesterday, we can re-evaluate those risk/reward brackets.
-5.5% to last week’s lows vs. 1.4% to the 200-dma. Risk/reward negative.
Risk/reward negative. -7.6% to the 50% retracement/50-dma vs. 5.6% to the March peak. Risk/reward negative.
Risk/reward negative. -16.9% to the April 1st lows vs. 9.1% to January’s bottom. Risk/reward negative.
Risk/reward negative. -24.1% to the March 23rd low vs. 14.5% to all-time highs: Risk/reward negative.
While it may not seem like it at the moment, the risk of a downside retracement, as we head into summer months, outweighs the current upside. Importantly, this does NOT mean the markets can’t rally to all-time highs. It is possible. It is also just as likely that things do go as smoothly as planned, and we wind up retesting March lows.
Such is why we have to weigh the risk and reward of chasing markets.
Positioning Changes
With seasonal sell signals in place, we are very focused on our positioning. Over the last couple of weeks, we have continued to increase our equity exposure. However, as noted previously, we continue to do so in areas that remain defensive, currently out of favor, or opportunistic.
We also balanced our increases in “risk” exposure with matched weights in shorter-duration Treasury bonds, gold, or dollar hedges to reduce our risk.
Yes, we are clearly chasing momentum at the moment. However, we do so with a clear understanding of our risk, reward, and overall net positioning. We continue also to hold a larger than normal level of cash to mitigate volatility risk.
As portfolio managers, we have an obligation to our clients to “make money” when we can. We have a “fiduciary duty” to protect them from significant declines that would destroy their financial plans.
The Pin That Pricks The Bubble
The problem for the market going forward, as noted, is that markets have priced in a speedy recovery back to pre-recession norms, no secondary outbreak of the virus, and a vaccine. If such does turn out to be the case, the Federal Reserve will have a very big problem.
The “unlimited QE” bazooka is dependent on the Fed needing to monetize the deficit and support economic growth. However, if the goals of full employment and economic growth are quickly reached, the Fed will face a potential “inflation surge.”
Such will put the Fed into a very tight box. The surge in inflation will limit their ability to continue “unlimited QE” without further exacerbating the inflation problem. However, if they don’t “monetize” the deficit through their “QE” program, interest rates will surge, leading to an economic recession.
It’s a no-win situation for the Fed.
It’s worse for consumers as the Fed’s actions have historically operated as a “wealth transfer” system from the middle-class to the rich.
The only outcome that allows the Fed to monetize the deficit without an inflationary surge is for fundamentals to matter ultimately. A reversion in asset prices will provide the cover needed to continue monetary interventions, but it also means “bullish case” didn’t work out as expected.
Of course, this has always been the case historically. Just as the “Coyote” always wound up going over the cliff when chasing the “Roadrunner,” excessive bullish optimism is always met with disappointment.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--A Deadly Virus Is Sweeping Multiple States In Rabbits

A deadly virus is threatening to wipe out entire populations across multiple states .
At risk are North America ’ s rabbits .
It ’ s a strain of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease , and it ’ s recently appeared in pockets of the Western US .
If it continues to spread unchecked , it could harm all dozen-plus species of rabbits in the US and the ecosystems they belong to .
The highly contagious illness isn ’ t connected to coronavirus — only rabbits , hares and pikas , the diminutive cousin of rabbits , can spread it among each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become infected with it .
Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease virus type 2 can cause internal bleeding and swelling , but more often , the sickened rabbits aren ’ t discovered until they ’ ve already died , according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife .
There are some parallels between Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease and Covid-19 , said Matt Gompper , a disease ecologist and head of the Department of Fish , Wildlife and Conservation Ecology at New Mexico State University .
Both are thought to have “ spilled over ” from one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the novel coronavirus , likely a bat to humans ; in the rabbit disease , from domestic to wild rabbits — and both arose so quickly that health officials had a limited window to act .
How the disease came to the US The disease likely originated around a decade ago in European rabbits , which comprise most domestic rabbits sold in the US , Gompper said .
Then , in early March , another strain of the virus was discovered in wild rabbits in southern New Mexico .
A few days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in El Paso , Texas .
More sightings followed in Arizona , Colorado and , in May , in California .
Ecologists aren ’ t sure how virus type 2 arrived in the US .
Gompper said he predicts the disease worked its way through rabbit meat or the domestic rabbit trade .
It also might have been circulating in northern Mexico , which shares a border with New Mexico and Texas .

via keyt
A deadly virus is threatening to wipe out entire populations across multiple states. At risk are North America’s rabbits.
It’s a strain of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease, and it’s recently appeared in pockets of the Western US. If it continues to spread unchecked, it could harm all dozen-plus species of rabbits in the US and the ecosystems they belong to.
The highly contagious illness isn’t connected to coronavirus — only rabbits, hares and pikas, the diminutive cousin of rabbits, can spread it among each other, and humans can’t become infected with it.
Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease virus type 2 can cause internal bleeding and swelling, but more often, the sickened rabbits aren’t discovered until they’ve already died, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.
There are some parallels between Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease and Covid-19, said Matt Gompper, a disease ecologist and head of the Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Ecology at New Mexico State University.
Both are thought to have “spilled over” from one species to another — in the case of the novel coronavirus, likely a bat to humans; in the rabbit disease, from domestic to wild rabbits — and both arose so quickly that health officials had a limited window to act.
How the disease came to the US
The disease likely originated around a decade ago in European rabbits, which comprise most domestic rabbits sold in the US, Gompper said.
Then, in early March, another strain of the virus was discovered in wild rabbits in southern New Mexico. A few days later, dead rabbits were spotted nearby in El Paso, Texas. More sightings followed in Arizona, Colorado and, in May, in California.
Ecologists aren’t sure how virus type 2 arrived in the US. Gompper said he predicts the disease worked its way through rabbit meat or the domestic rabbit trade. It also might have been circulating in northern Mexico, which shares a border with New Mexico and Texas.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--MAG: Will Cost $10 Trillion to Prevent Great Depression

Last week , House Democrats unveiled their latest pandemic-relief package .
The bill combines aid for families , a bailout for struggling cities and states , and additional funds for testing , tracing , and hospitals .
The price tag is about $ 3 trillion—and it comes just weeks after the president signed an economic-relief package worth about $ 2 trillion .
Republicans have assailed the bill as a profligate wish list .
Even Americans who are suffering from the health and economic ravages of the pandemic may feel a bit stunned by the dollar amount .
Does the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in three months ?
Can the United States afford to dump such unfathomable amounts of money into the economy ?
The answers to those questions are yes and absolutely yes .
Annie Lowrey : Where is the government ?
Small-business activity has plunged nationwide by nearly 50 percent .
Hundreds of thousands of companies have already failed .
Big retailers such as J.Crew and Neiman Marcus have filed for bankruptcy , while others , including Macy ’ s , are teetering .
By some measures , scarcely one-third of Americans say they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report will likely show that , for the first time since World War II , a majority of Americans aren ’ t officially employed .

Last week, House Democrats unveiled their latest pandemic-relief package. The bill combines aid for families, a bailout for struggling cities and states, and additional funds for testing, tracing, and hospitals. The price tag is about $3 trillion—and it comes just weeks after the president signed an economic-relief package worth about $2 trillion.
Republicans have assailed the bill as a profligate wish list. Even Americans who are suffering from the health and economic ravages of the pandemic may feel a bit stunned by the dollar amount. Does the government really have to spend $5 trillion in three months? Can the United States afford to dump such unfathomable amounts of money into the economy?
The answers to those questions are yes and absolutely yes.
Annie Lowrey: Where is the government?
Small-business activity has plunged nationwide by nearly 50 percent. Hundreds of thousands of companies have already failed. Big retailers such as J.Crew and Neiman Marcus have filed for bankruptcy, while others, including Macy’s, are teetering. By some measures, scarcely one-third of Americans say they are working. Next month’s jobs report will likely show that, for the first time since World War II, a majority of Americans aren’t officially employed.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--NBC News Hit With $2.85 Billion Lawsuit

NBC News Hit With $2.85 Billion Lawsuit

Teledentistry company SmileDirectClub Inc. SDC -1.46 % sued Comcast Corp. CMCSA -1.14 % ’ s NBCUniversal , seeking nearly $ @ @ @ @ @ what it alleges were defamatory news reports about the company ’ s treatment methods .
@ @ @ @ @ in a Tennessee court , focuses on a Feb. 13 “ NBC Nightly News ” @ @ @ @ @ some SmileDirectClub customers and warnings about teledentistry from an orthodontics professor .
The lawsuit also @ @ @ @ @ accompanying the segment is inaccurate .
SmileDirectClub ’ s complaint claims that the reports from @ @ @ @ @ involving the safety and effectiveness of its products , and that the network knew its @ @ @ @ @ .

SmileDirectClub Sues NBC Over News Report, Seeking $2.85 Billion
Teledentistry company SmileDirectClub Inc. SDC -1.46% sued Comcast Corp. CMCSA -1.14% ’s NBCUniversal, seeking nearly $3 billion in damages for what it alleges were defamatory news reports about the company’s treatment methods.
The suit, filed Monday in a Tennessee court, focuses on a Feb. 13 “NBC Nightly News” segment that described complaints by some SmileDirectClub customers and warnings about teledentistry from an orthodontics professor. The lawsuit also says that an online article accompanying the segment is inaccurate.
SmileDirectClub’s complaint claims that the reports from NBC News contained numerous errors involving the safety and effectiveness of its products, and that the network knew its stories about SmileDirectClub were untruthful.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--Gavin Newsom sets in motion his plan to steal Disaster Relief Funds from Pandemic victims. Primarily

Gavin Newsom sets in motion his plan to steal Disaster Relief Funds from Pandemic victims. Primarily victims that voted for Trump

The arragent lawlessness of the democrat party no longer surprises me .
We see this behavior more and more because they are allowed to get away with it , unchallenged .
In states like California , where democrats have complete control of all aspects of the government , the corruption runs rampant .
The democrats misappropriation of state funds and desire to put their personal interests before the citizens have caused a financial hardship on the state .
To counter this hardship the democrats appear to have redefined the position of state Governor .
State “ Grifter ” is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Newsom appears to spend most of his time trying to figure out new ways to scam the Federal government out of money .
Currently , Newsom is trying to use the covid-19 pandemic to scam the Federal government .
For Newsom it ’ s all about that getting that disaster relief money .
By now we all should be familiar with Elon Musk battle with Alameda County .
( A battle he won ) .
Prior to winning the battle Musk went to Newsome to discuss this problem .
Newsom made it clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They are to decide when it ’ s ok to lift any restrictions .
Basically he said he can ’ t do anything about it .
Newsom made the decision to leave it up to the counties .
Alameda also agrees with this decision .
A commenrt made by Alameda ’ s health official was ” The governor ’ s order does not override the county ’ s stay-at-home order , which is in place through May 31.
“ It should bew perfectly clear that Newsom passed on the responsibility of “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being the case , we must ask ourselves “ Why is Newsome harassing and making threats to Sutter , Modoc and Yuba counties ?
‘ Gov .
Gavin Newsom is warning three counties that they could lose disaster funding if t ” ey continue to defy his stay-at-home order .
Officials in Yuba , Sutter and Modoc counties all allowed businesses to reopen because they have fewer coronavirus cases than other parts of the state ” .
It ’ s more than likely he is doing it because of the people that live @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican in presidential and congressional elections .
The last democrat to win a majority in the county was Franklin Roosevelt in 1940.
” Modoc County .
Strongly Republican in Presidential and cogressional elections .
It is the most Republican county in California .
The last Democrat to win a majority in the county was Lyndon Johnson in 1964 .
Yuba County .
Republican in the last five Presidential elections .
In the last Presidential election , Yuba county remained strongly Republican , 57.3 % to 34.4 % .
* This makes me wonder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
*Stanislaus County should be next on Newsom ’ s hit list , Stanislaus has decided to ignore Newsom ’ s orders .
The county is a “ battleground ” politically .
If , or should I say when actual combat with firearms “ kicked off ” this would be a hot spot , if not the front line .
There would be hundreds , if not thousands of casualties the first few days .
The citizens are heavly armed .
This is my county .
Alameda is a democrat county .
Newsom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own thing while attacking 3 Republican counties .
This is obvious political descrimination .
*If you are one of the few democrats that live in these counties , consider yourself abandoned by your party leader .
Newsom considers you a acceptable loss , killed by friendly fire .
Like everything else Newsom does , this is abuse of his power if not criminal .
The quickest , more realistic solution to end this is by taking all disaster relief funding provided by the Federal government and relieve the state of the responsibility to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the counties .
Some might be asking , “ Do you have any more proof about him stealing the disaster funds ?
” Personally , I think how he handled these counties is enough proof to start a investigation .
A person might say , “ it ’ s the same as Trump witholding funds from California.
” It ’ s not .
These counties are not breaking any laws..
They ’ re not trying to cover their debt that had accumilated prior to the pandemic .
That ’ s exactly what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the debt of the state that accumilated prior to the pandemic .
A debt the democrats created .
Make no mistake , Newsom wants that money .
What we should keep in mind .
It seemsa like yesterday when Newsome was going to rehab for his cocaine addiction .
That was around the same time when he was cheating on his wife and having an affair with his campaign managers wife , doing lines is the nearest bathroom .
Just imagine .
The manager is out telling everyone how great Newsom is while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in the back seat of the family car having a good time with Newsom .
Newsom , a guy that screws over his wife and his most trusting friend .
He is a person that knows zero about loyalty and lkacks integrity and morality .
This is a person that has proven to be untrustworthy .
Yet , he wins the election .
• I don ’ t believe he got the legal amount of votes required to win .
When the polls closed on election day , Newsome was behind .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election .
He along with the other democrats won after the mail in votes were counted .
Ballots that come in after the polls that arrive by mail don ’ t get inspected the same way they do when the polls are open .
Democrats changed that rule .
All fake ballots make it through , unchallanged..
It doesn ’ t help matters when many of the election officials are corrupt .
Newsom and his crew of pirates need to be audited .
The first place I would start would be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( CDF ) and their branch , Cal Fire .
I would investigate every piece of equipment owned by Cal Fire .
If you have been paying attention in the past you will have noticed that many of the aircraft used to fight fires in California are owned by private contractors or other sources .
Cal Fire has not been using their own equipment .
A good question would be , “ If they are paying private contractors or other sources to fight fires then why have they spent so much money buying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of the aircraft owned by Cal Fire .
This information comes from Wikipedia “ In support of its ground forces , the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection ( CAL FIRE ) emergency response air program includes 23 Grumman S-2T 1,200 gallon airtankers , eleven UH-1H Super Huey helicopters , and 14 OV-10A airtactical aircraft .
These aircraft are stationed at 13 air attack and 10 helitack bases located statewide.
” Then there is the expense to maintain the equipment .
“ The average annual budget of the CAL FIRE Aviation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” I shoul also ad the following .
This comes from a prior post of mine titled , “ In addition I found the following .
They have 61 dozers , 50 fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft which include , 2 Air King A200 and 1 or more of the following , Dornier Do-228 , C-23A Sherpa ( SD3-30 ) , Air Tractor AT-802A “ FireBoss ” mman S-2T , Lockheed P-2 Neptune , CL-215/ Bombardier 415 “ Superscooper ” , Douglas DC-7 , McDonnell Douglas MD-87 , British Aerospace Bae 146/ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ C-130 Hercules , Boeing 747 , DC-10 , AH-1 Firewatch “ Cobra ” , Sikorsky S-61 , Sikorsky S-64 , Sikorsky S -70 “ Firehawk ” , Eurocopter AS-332L , Boeing-Vertol BV 107 , Boeing 234 “ Chinook ” , Kaman “ K-Max ” , Bell 212 , Bell 205 A++ , Bell 412 , Bell 407 , Bell 206B “ JetRanger ” , Bell 206L-III “ LongRanger ” , Eurocopter AS350 AStar , MD 500D , Aérospatiale SA 315B “ Lama ” , Alouette 316B , Lockheed C-130 , UH -60 “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Knight ” , CH -47 “ Chinook ” , Sikorsky CH-53E “ Super Stallion ” ( Sikorsky S-80E ) .
For details click here.
” Cal Fires budget is up to 2.6 billion a year .
Why have the equipment if we are not using it ?
We need inventory every piece of equipment .
We will be lucky if it ’ s all there .
Before the Federal government gives any more money to the state of California , as well as any other state , they should require some sort of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or purpose for the funding..
It ’ s not too much to ask for .
If you or I are going to give someone money , we are going to want to know what it ’ s spent on .
We are going to expect it to be spent on what we were told it was for .
Newsome is just like every other Democrat in a leadership position , corrupt .
It wouldn ’ t surprise me if the democrats weren ’ t busy rigging the 2020 election , while all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whole concept of waiting for a covid-19 vaccine is stupidity at its best .
We have been looking for a vaccine for HIV since the early 80 ’ s .
In 2019 the US spent a minimum of 34 billion on HIV .
Democrats know this .
Newsome and the rest of the democrat leadership are nothing more than a band of grifters .
They are an embarrassment to every American , among many other things .
Law Enforcement and the Justice Department need step up and start making arrests Treat the politicians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It will only take a few before they start telling on each other .
Then they all fall .
It ’ s that easy .

by Deplorable Patriot
The arragent lawlessness of the democrat party no longer surprises me. We see this behavior more and more because they are allowed to get away with it, unchallenged.
In states like California, where democrats have complete control of all aspects of the government, the corruption runs rampant.
The democrats misappropriation of state funds and desire to put their personal interests before the citizens have caused a financial hardship on the state.
To counter this hardship the democrats appear to have redefined the position of state Governor. State “Grifter” is more appropriate title than state Governor.
Governor Newsom appears to spend most of his time trying to figure out new ways to scam the Federal government out of money.
Currently, Newsom is trying to use the covid-19 pandemic to scam the Federal government. For Newsom it’s all about that getting that disaster relief money.
By now we all should be familiar with Elon Musk battle with Alameda County. (A battle he won). Prior to winning the battle Musk went to Newsome to discuss this problem. Newsom made it clear that it was the county officials call. They are to decide when it’s ok to lift any restrictions. Basically he said he can’t do anything about it.
Newsom made the decision to leave it up to the counties. Alameda also agrees with this decision. A commenrt made by Alameda’s health official was ” The governor’s order does not override the county’s stay-at-home order, which is in place through May 31.“
It should bew perfectly clear that Newsom passed on the responsibility of “reopening” the counties. With that being the case, we must ask ourselves “Why is Newsome harassing and making threats to Sutter, Modoc and Yuba counties?
‘Gov. Gavin Newsom is warning three counties that they could lose disaster funding if t”ey continue to defy his stay-at-home order.
Officials in Yuba, Sutter and Modoc counties all allowed businesses to reopen because they have fewer coronavirus cases than other parts of the state”.
It’s more than likely he is doing it because of the people that live there.
Sutter County. ” Strongly Republican in presidential and congressional elections. The last democrat to win a majority in the county was Franklin Roosevelt in 1940.”
Modoc County. Strongly Republican in Presidential and cogressional elections. It is the most Republican county in California. The last Democrat to win a majority in the county was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Yuba County. Republican in the last five Presidential elections.
In the last Presidential election, Yuba county remained strongly Republican, 57.3% to 34.4%. * This makes me wonder how a democrat won the congressional seat.
*Stanislaus County should be next on Newsom’s hit list, Stanislaus has decided to ignore Newsom’s orders. The county is a “battleground” politically. If,or should I say when actual combat with firearms “kicked off” this would be a hot spot, if not the front line. There would be hundreds, if not thousands of casualties the first few days. The citizens are heavly armed. This is my county.
Alameda is a democrat county. Newsom lets the county do it’s own thing while attacking 3 Republican counties. This is obvious political descrimination.
*If you are one of the few democrats that live in these counties, consider yourself abandoned by your party leader. Newsom considers you a acceptable loss, killed by friendly fire.
Like everything else Newsom does, this is abuse of his power if not criminal. The quickest, more realistic solution to end this is by taking all disaster relief funding provided by the Federal government and relieve the state of the responsibility to issue it out. Give it directly to the counties.
Some might be asking, “Do you have any more proof about him stealing the disaster funds?”
Personally, I think how he handled these counties is enough proof to start a investigation. A person might say, “it’s the same as Trump witholding funds from California.” It’s not. These counties are not breaking any laws.. They’re not trying to cover their debt that had accumilated prior to the pandemic. That’s exactly what Newsome is doing. Trying to cover the debt of the state that accumilated prior to the pandemic. A debt the democrats created. Make no mistake, Newsom wants that money.
What we should keep in mind.
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It seemsa like yesterday when Newsome was going to rehab for his cocaine addiction. That was around the same time when he was cheating on his wife and having an affair with his campaign managers wife, doing lines is the nearest bathroom.
Just imagine. The manager is out telling everyone how great Newsom is while at the same time, his wife is in the back seat of the family car having a good time with Newsom.
Newsom, a guy that screws over his wife and his most trusting friend. He is a person that knows zero about loyalty and lkacks integrity and morality. This is a person that has proven to be untrustworthy. Yet, he wins the election.
I don’t believe he got the legal amount of votes required to win. When the polls closed on election day, Newsome was behind. Just like most of the democrats in the election. He along with the other democrats won after the mail in votes were counted. Ballots that come in after the polls that arrive by mail don’t get inspected the same way they do when the polls are open. Democrats changed that rule. All fake ballots make it through, unchallanged.. It doesn’t help matters when many of the election officials are corrupt.
Newsom and his crew of pirates need to be audited. The first place I would start would be the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CDF) and their branch, Cal Fire.
I would investigate every piece of equipment owned by Cal Fire. If you have been paying attention in the past you will have noticed that many of the aircraft used to fight fires in California are owned by private contractors or other sources. Cal Fire has not been using their own equipment.
A good question would be, “If they are paying private contractors or other sources to fight fires then why have they spent so much money buying their own equipment?”
Here is some of the aircraft owned by Cal Fire. This information comes from Wikipedia
“In support of its ground forces, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) emergency response air program includes 23 Grumman S-2T 1,200 gallon airtankers, eleven UH-1H Super Huey helicopters, and 14 OV-10A airtactical aircraft. These aircraft are stationed at 13 air attack and 10 helitack bases located statewide.”
Then there is the expense to maintain the equipment.
“The average annual budget of the CAL FIRE Aviation Management Program is nearly $20 million.”
I shoul also ad the following. This comes from a prior post of mine titled,
Kincade fire revisited.
“In addition I found the following. They have 61 dozers, 50 fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft which include , 2 Air King A200 and 1 or more of the following, Dornier Do-228, C-23A Sherpa (SD3-30), Air Tractor AT-802A “FireBoss”mman S-2T, Lockheed P-2 Neptune, CL-215/ Bombardier 415 “Superscooper”, Douglas DC-7,McDonnell Douglas MD-87, British Aerospace Bae 146/ Avro RJ85, L188 Electra, Lockheed C-130 Hercules, Boeing 747, DC-10, AH-1 Firewatch “Cobra” ,Sikorsky S-61, Sikorsky S-64, Sikorsky S -70 “Firehawk”,Eurocopter AS-332L, Boeing-Vertol BV 107, Boeing 234 “Chinook”, Kaman “K-Max”, Bell 212, Bell 205 A++, Bell 412, Bell 407, Bell 206B “JetRanger”, Bell 206L-III “LongRanger”, Eurocopter AS350 AStar, MD 500D, Aérospatiale SA 315B “Lama”, Alouette 316B, Lockheed C-130, UH -60 “Blackhawk”, Boeing CH-46 “Sea Knight”, CH -47 “Chinook”, Sikorsky CH-53E “Super Stallion” (Sikorsky S-80E). For details click here.”
Cal Fires budget is up to 2.6 billion a year.
Why have the equipment if we are not using it? We need inventory every piece of equipment. We will be lucky if it’s all there.
Before the Federal government gives any more money to the state of California, as well as any other state, they should require some sort of proof that shows prior spending matched request or purpose for the funding.. It’s not too much to ask for. If you or I are going to give someone money, we are going to want to know what it’s spent on. We are going to expect it to be spent on what we were told it was for.
Newsome is just like every other Democrat in a leadership position, corrupt. It wouldn’t surprise me if the democrats weren’t busy rigging the 2020 election, while all the focus is on the pandemic.
The whole concept of waiting for a covid-19 vaccine is stupidity at its best. We have been looking for a vaccine for HIV since the early 80’s. In 2019 the US spent a minimum of 34 billion on HIV.
Still no vaccine.
Democrats know this. Newsome and the rest of the democrat leadership are nothing more than a band of grifters. They are an embarrassment to every American, among many other things.
Law Enforcement and the Justice Department need step up and start making arrests Treat the politicians the same way they treat everyone else. It will only take a few before they start telling on each other. Then they all fall. It’s that easy.
Respectfully, Deplorable Patriot.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--GATA asks CFTC if it has ever audited Comex gold

by Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ( GATA ) GATA today asked the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission whether it has ever audited the gold reported to it by the New York Commodities Exchange as being eligible or registered for sale and delivery on the exchange .
In a letter to commission Chairman Heath P. Tarbert , your secretary/treasurer and GATA consultant Harvey Organ wrote : “ Recent turmoil in the gold markets in the United States and the United Kingdom has raised questions about the integrity of certain market participants , including the New York Commodities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bullion Market Association.
” “ – Has your commission ever audited the gold kept in Comex-approved vaults and reported to the commission as registered or eligible for sale and delivery ?
“ – If such audits have been conducted , when and what did they find ?
“ – Were these audits ever made public ?
If so , when and how ?
May we see them ?
“ – Are future audits planned ?
If so , when and who will conduct them ?
” In recent years GATA has put similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answers .
Several of those questions have been pressed by U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney , R-West Virginia , but the commission has evaded his inquiries too .
Especially avoided lately by the commission are whether it is is aware of futures market trading by the U.S. government , its agents , and other governments , and whether it has jurisdiction over manipulative trading by the U.S. government : While the commission refuses to answer whether it is aware of futures trading by governments , filings by CME Group , operator of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CFTC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show that CME Group provides special discounts to governments and central banks for surreptitious futures trading : GATA ’ s new letter to the CFTC is posted in PDF format here : Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee , cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA ’ s recent fundraising campaign , are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana , Texas .
Each case has 12 bottles and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shipping via Federal Express .
Here ’ s what the bottles look like : Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here : GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold .
So if you like wine and buy it anyway , why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals ?
To order a case of GATA-label wine , please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236 @ aol.com @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explanation of government ’ s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA ’ s work exposing it .
Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA .
Buy a copy for $ 14.99 through Amazon — — or for an additional $ 3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert @ comcast.net .
Help keep GATA going : GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code .
Its e-mail dispatches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at : To contribute to GATA , please visit :

by Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA)
10:25a ET Monday, May 18, 2020
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA today asked the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission whether it has ever audited the gold reported to it by the New York Commodities Exchange as being eligible or registered for sale and delivery on the exchange.
In a letter to commission Chairman Heath P. Tarbert, your secretary/treasurer and GATA consultant Harvey Organ wrote:
“Recent turmoil in the gold markets in the United States and the United Kingdom has raised questions about the integrity of certain market participants, including the New York Commodities Exchange (Comex) and the London Bullion Market Association.”
The letter asked:
“– Has your commission ever audited the gold kept in Comex-approved vaults and reported to the commission as registered or eligible for sale and delivery?
“– If such audits have been conducted, when and what did they find?
“– Who conducted these audits?
“– Were these audits ever made public? If so, when and how? May we see them?
“– Are future audits planned? If so, when and who will conduct them?”
In recent years GATA has put similar critical questions to the CFTC without getting answers. Several of those questions have been pressed by U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, but the commission has evaded his inquiries too.
Especially avoided lately by the commission are whether it is is aware of futures market trading by the U.S. government, its agents, and other governments, and whether it has jurisdiction over manipulative trading by the U.S. government:
gata.org/node/20089
While the commission refuses to answer whether it is aware of futures trading by governments, filings by CME Group, operator of the New York Commodities Exchange, with the CFTC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show that CME Group provides special discounts to governments and central banks for surreptitious futures trading:
gata.org/node/18925
GATA’s new letter to the CFTC is posted in PDF format here:
gata.org/files/GATALetter-CFTC-Comex-05-18-2020.pdf
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine
Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.
Here’s what the bottles look like:
www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg
Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:
www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg
GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?
To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.
* * *
Support GATA by purchasing
Stuart Englert’s “Rigged”
“Rigged” is a concise explanation of government’s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA’s work exposing it. Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA. Buy a copy for $14.99 through Amazon —
www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…
— or for an additional $3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.
* * *
Help keep GATA going:
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
www.gata.org
To contribute to GATA, please visit:
www.gata.org/node/16


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--Is Jim Cramer Bullshit? – I kept many of Jim’s picks, lets have a look…

I ’ ve tracked a ton of Jim Cramer ’ s picks , and I ’ m here to give @ @ @ @ @ .
( rounded ) …and there you have it .
Disclaimer : This information is @ @ @ @ @ Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do @ @ @ @ @

by spanky2222
I’ve tracked a ton of Jim Cramer’s picks, and I’m here to give you the THEN and NOW. (rounded)
PICKS – THEN 5/2014 – NOW
AL – 38 – 26
ED – 55 – 73
EOG – 105 – 52
GE – 25 – 6
GRUB – 31 – 57
HD – 77 – 245
LOW – 47 – 116
STM – 9 – 24
TGT – 58 – 125
TIF – 90 – 127
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
…and there you have it.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--PBS Releases a Massively Biased Pro-Biden Fluff Piece to Shelter Him from Tara Reade Allegations

Never once does it mention other allegations against him , either : archive.vn/OSn1E

Never once does it mention other allegations against him, either: archive.vn/OSn1E
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--Interesting data points in WSJ OpEd on Moderna vaccine hopes

Does anyone see an ethical conflict with releasing phase 1 clinical trial data when the sample size is 45 people @ @ @ @ @ rallies 20 % that same day announcing a secondary after the close to the tune @ @ @ @ @ $ MRNA pic.twitter.com/69qAhU956V

Does anyone see an ethical conflict with releasing phase 1 clinical trial data when the sample size is 45 people and then after your stock rallies 20% that same day announcing a secondary after the close to the tune of $1.25 Billion? $MRNA pic.twitter.com/69qAhU956V
— JB (@JonathanByrne9) May 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--Buying markets at a forward P/E of 23 because a central committee self-admittedly has flooded the sy

Buying markets at a forward P/E of 23 because a central committee self-admittedly has flooded the system with money it has digitally created is not investing.  It’s stupefied herd behavior. And no, it doesn’t build immunity.

Buying markets at a forward P/E of 23 because a central committee self-admittedly has flooded the system with money it has digitally created is not investing. It's stupefied herd behavior. And no, it doesn't build immunity. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) May 19, 2020
Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio is Price to Earnings (P/E) divided by the expected earnings growth rate. This particular example shows a 5-year earnings growth expectations. The ratio's value is the highest for at least 25 years How this ratio is broken or it isn't at all? pic.twitter.com/kOZiNhDjwS — Sebastian Sienkiewicz (@Amdalleq) May 19, 2020
BofA Fund Manager Survey is out "Zeitgeist bearish: just 10% expect a V-shaped recovery, 25% a new bull market; in contrast 75% expect a U or W-shaped recovery, 68% a bear market rally" — Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) May 19, 2020
What a bullshit.. printing money means higher inflation.. they should change it in asset inflation pic.twitter.com/AQ5dbIygQE — Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) May 19, 2020
Q1 earnings growth down 7.2% so far. The great thing about the stock market is we forecast 10% earnings growth and when it comes in -7% we still rally because we expect it to rebound to +10% — GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) May 19, 2020
Consumer spending item changes pic.twitter.com/DvcUQOn559 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 19, 2020
Jefferies: Retail closures by location have declined modestly, and restaurant bookings have improved marginally but are still down 94% y/y
Without sharp improvements in these areas, many businesses – small ones in particular – will eventually have to close their doors forever pic.twitter.com/QvjUYo30Yi — 𝕮𝖍𝖎 🛢 (@chigrl) May 19, 2020
Will the Fed buy all of these? pic.twitter.com/XoFcKUKTts — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-19--Our Fate Is Sealed, Vaccines Won’t Matter: Four Long Cycles Align

A Covid-19 vaccine , or lack thereof , will have zero effect in terms of reversing these cycles .
Call it Fate , call it karma , call it what you will , but the cycles have aligned and nothing can stop the unraveling of all that was foolishly presumed to be permanent .
We like to think we ’ re in charge and that technology conquers all , but history moves in cycles that are larger than any person , corporation , elite or ( gasp ) technology .
My first version of the chart below was drawn in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revealed the cracks in the happy-story facade of permanent wonderfulness based on the amazing magic of borrowing / printing ever greater sums of currency , a.k.a .
“ money.
” Longtime correspondent Cheryl A. suggested I revisit the alignment of long-wave cycles , and so let ’ s start by what the study of cycles is not : it is predictive in terms of trends and turning points , not precise time or amplitude targets .
In effect , the study of cycles is the study of human nature as it plays out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dynamics .
Sir John Glubb ’ s succinct and deeply informed 1978 essay The Fate of Empires lists these stages of social development and decay that manifest as the rise and decline of empires : The Age of Pioneers ( outburst or Boost Phase ) The slippery slope to collapse–decadence–is characterized by greed , corruption , irreconcilable internal political rifts , moral decay , frivolity , materialism–hmm , sound familiar ?
The global status quo sped through The Age of Intellect ( postmodernism ) with little to show for the vast expenditure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the final terminal stage of decadence and collapse .
All of this fits the S-Curve model which I ’ ve described here many times , for example : As I discussed a few months ago in The Taxonomy of Collapse ( December 9 , 2019 ) , any number of events or trend reversals can trigger the rapid decline and collapse of what was widely viewed as permanent .
The book The Fate of Rome : Climate , Disease , and the End of an Empire makes a compelling case that the Western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a slow environmental transition from an unusually wet era that enabled grain to be grown in previously marginal areas to a drier era that no longer supported the immense grain harvests needed to feed the empire .
The imperial machinery accustomed to there ’ s always more somewhere refuses to trim its expenses , elites refuse to lessen their skim , and since the fat of elite excess is retained , eventually the muscle of military power and trade decay , leaving a hollowed out empire on the edge of a precipice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Covid-19 pandemic is the final kick into the abyss .
Triggers of collapse can overlap , of course , accelerating the final decline , and hence our interest in long-wave cycles that align in the present era .
All complex , tightly bound systems are intrinsically fragile and prone to disruption ; we don ’ t see the fragility or vulnerabilities until the decline has reached the terminal phase .
The higher up the wealth-power pyramid the observer is , the more prone they are to a magical-thinking belief that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is crumbling around them .
I discussed this earlier this month in Our Inevitable Collapse : We Can ’ t Save a Fragile Economy With Bailouts That Increase Fragility ( May 1 , 2020 ) .
Let ’ s consider the four overlapping/aligning cycles depicted on this chart .
I could have added more , for example Glubb ’ s cycle of imperial expansion and decline , or Peter Turchin ’ s cycle of social integration and disintegration which he explained in his 2016 book Ages of Discord : human history manifests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which the impulse to cooperate in large social structures waxes and wanes .
Turchin identified 25-year cycles that combine into roughly 50-year cycles , comparable ( though not identical with ) Kondratieff ’ s economic cycles .
These 50-year cycles are part of longer 150 to 200-year cycles that move from cooperation through an age of discord and disintegration to a new era of cooperation .
This work draws upon his previous books , including War and Peace and War : The Rise and Fall of Empires , which I referenced in Following @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moral Decay , Rising Wealth Inequality ( September 30 , 2015 ) and The Lesson of Empires : Once Privilege Limits Social Mobility , Collapse Is Inevitable ( April 18 , 2016 ) .
These long cycles parallel the cyclical analysis of David Hackett Fischer , whose masterwork The Great Wave : Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History I ’ ve referenced many times over the years , most recently in We ’ ve Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty ( July 18 , 2016 ) .
Turchin ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycles : 1 .
An over-supply of labor that suppresses real ( inflation-adjusted ) wages 3 .
A deterioration in central state finances ( over-indebtedness , decline in tax revenues , increase in state dependents , fiscal burdens of war , etc . )
These combine to influence the social order , which is characterized in eras of discord by declining loyalty to self-serving special interests ( disintegration ) .
The four cycles depicted are : 1 .
The cycle of credit expansion and contraction , which is now in the final blow-off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) which will inevitably lead to renunciation of debt ( credit collapse ) and global depression .
2 .
The generational cycle ( 4 generations or approximately 80 years ) of American history which leads to nation-changing social , political and economic upheaval ( The American Revolution : 1781 +80 years = Civil War , 1861 +80 years = 1941 , World War II + 80 years = 2021 ) as described in the book The Fourth Turning .
3 .
The 100+ year cycle of price inflation and stagnation of wages ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reaching the final stage of widespread turmoil , shortages , famine , conflict and crisis .
( This can be viewed as aligned with Turchin ’ s cycle of social disorder and disintegration . )
4 .
The demographic cycle : the workforce stops expanding and starts shrinking while the population of dependent elderly explodes higher , triggering a decline in earnings and the tax base just as taxes must increase to pay for the care of the rising population of elderly .
( This is one dynamic in Turchin ’ s deterioration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these cycles aligned around the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09 , and elites have done nothing but kick the can down the road for over a decade in an ad-hoc explosion of TINA ( there is no alternative ) .
Nothing that ’ s broken has been fixed ; all that ’ s been done is trillions in currency has been borrowed or printed to paper over the dissolution , decay and decline .
— The demographic cycle has only accelerated .
— The expansion of credit has now reached extremes no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , just 15 years ago .
— The generational cycle is playing out perfectly , with Trump , Brexit , Yellow Vests , etc .
all erupting a few years before the terminal crisis begins in 2021 .
— Asset inflation has exploded higher since the late 1990s in one asset class after another until now it ’ s the Everything Bubble .
Despite official claims of low inflation , the costs of healthcare , childcare , higher education , rent and other essentials has skyrocketed in the past decade , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to accelerate as globalization and financialization unravel long supply chains and zombie corporations .
Resource depletion and geopolitical conflicts could create scarcities that the status quo has long dismissed as “ impossible ” –scarcities that could push prices for necessities through the roof .
The future won ’ t be as placid , secure and predictable as the status quo would have you believe .
A Covid-19 vaccine , or lack thereof , will have zero effect in terms of reversing these cycles .
Call it Fate , call it karma , call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycles have aligned and nothing can stop the unraveling of all that was foolishly presumed to be permanent .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
A Covid-19 vaccine, or lack thereof, will have zero effect in terms of reversing these cycles. Call it Fate, call it karma, call it what you will, but the cycles have aligned and nothing can stop the unraveling of all that was foolishly presumed to be permanent.
We like to think we’re in charge and that technology conquers all, but history moves in cycles that are larger than any person, corporation, elite or (gasp) technology. My first version of the chart below was drawn in 2008, when the Global Financial Meltdown revealed the cracks in the happy-story facade of permanent wonderfulness based on the amazing magic of borrowing / printing ever greater sums of currency, a.k.a. “money.”
Longtime correspondent Cheryl A. suggested I revisit the alignment of long-wave cycles, and so let’s start by what the study of cycles is not: it is predictive in terms of trends and turning points, not precise time or amplitude targets. In effect, the study of cycles is the study of human nature as it plays out in long-term social, political and economic dynamics.
Sir John Glubb’s succinct and deeply informed 1978 essay The Fate of Empires lists these stages of social development and decay that manifest as the rise and decline of empires:
The Age of Pioneers (outburst or Boost Phase)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence
The slippery slope to collapse–decadence–is characterized by greed, corruption, irreconcilable internal political rifts, moral decay, frivolity, materialism–hmm, sound familiar?
The global status quo sped through The Age of Intellect (postmodernism) with little to show for the vast expenditure of resources, and is now firmly in the final terminal stage of decadence and collapse.
All of this fits the S-Curve model which I’ve described here many times, for example:
As I discussed a few months ago in The Taxonomy of Collapse (December 9, 2019), any number of events or trend reversals can trigger the rapid decline and collapse of what was widely viewed as permanent.
The book The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire makes a compelling case that the Western Roman Empire centered around the Mediterranean suffered from a slow environmental transition from an unusually wet era that enabled grain to be grown in previously marginal areas to a drier era that no longer supported the immense grain harvests needed to feed the empire.
The imperial machinery accustomed to there’s always more somewhere refuses to trim its expenses, elites refuse to lessen their skim, and since the fat of elite excess is retained, eventually the muscle of military power and trade decay, leaving a hollowed out empire on the edge of a precipice awaiting one final kick into the abyss.
The Covid-19 pandemic is the final kick into the abyss. Triggers of collapse can overlap, of course, accelerating the final decline, and hence our interest in long-wave cycles that align in the present era.
All complex, tightly bound systems are intrinsically fragile and prone to disruption; we don’t see the fragility or vulnerabilities until the decline has reached the terminal phase.
The higher up the wealth-power pyramid the observer is, the more prone they are to a magical-thinking belief that the status quo is forever, even as it is crumbling around them. I discussed this earlier this month in Our Inevitable Collapse: We Can’t Save a Fragile Economy With Bailouts That Increase Fragility (May 1, 2020).
Let’s consider the four overlapping/aligning cycles depicted on this chart. I could have added more, for example Glubb’s cycle of imperial expansion and decline, or Peter Turchin’s cycle of social integration and disintegration which he explained in his 2016 book Ages of Discord: human history manifests cycles of social disintegration and integration in which the impulse to cooperate in large social structures waxes and wanes.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Turchin identified 25-year cycles that combine into roughly 50-year cycles, comparable (though not identical with) Kondratieff’s economic cycles.
These 50-year cycles are part of longer 150 to 200-year cycles that move from cooperation through an age of discord and disintegration to a new era of cooperation.
This work draws upon his previous books, including War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, which I referenced in Following in Ancient Rome’s Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Wealth Inequality (September 30, 2015) and The Lesson of Empires: Once Privilege Limits Social Mobility, Collapse Is Inevitable (April 18, 2016).
These long cycles parallel the cyclical analysis of David Hackett Fischer, whose masterwork The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History I’ve referenced many times over the years, most recently in We’ve Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty (July 18, 2016).
Turchin’s model identifies three primary forces in these cycles:
1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages
2. An overproduction of parasitic Elites
3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, decline in tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)
These combine to influence the social order, which is characterized in eras of discord by declining loyalty to self-serving special interests (disintegration).
The four cycles depicted are:
1. The cycle of credit expansion and contraction, which is now in the final blow-off stage of unsustainable credit expansion (bubble) which will inevitably lead to renunciation of debt (credit collapse) and global depression.
2. The generational cycle (4 generations or approximately 80 years) of American history which leads to nation-changing social, political and economic upheaval (The American Revolution: 1781 +80 years = Civil War, 1861 +80 years = 1941, World War II + 80 years = 2021) as described in the book The Fourth Turning.
3. The 100+ year cycle of price inflation and stagnation of wages’ purchasing-power which began around 1901 is now reaching the final stage of widespread turmoil, shortages, famine, conflict and crisis. (This can be viewed as aligned with Turchin’s cycle of social disorder and disintegration.)
4. The demographic cycle: the workforce stops expanding and starts shrinking while the population of dependent elderly explodes higher, triggering a decline in earnings and the tax base just as taxes must increase to pay for the care of the rising population of elderly. (This is one dynamic in Turchin’s deterioration in central state finances.)
All of these cycles aligned around the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09, and elites have done nothing but kick the can down the road for over a decade in an ad-hoc explosion of TINA (there is no alternative). Nothing that’s broken has been fixed; all that’s been done is trillions in currency has been borrowed or printed to paper over the dissolution, decay and decline.
— The demographic cycle has only accelerated.
— The expansion of credit has now reached extremes no one thought possible, much less necessary, just 15 years ago.
— The generational cycle is playing out perfectly, with Trump, Brexit, Yellow Vests, etc. all erupting a few years before the terminal crisis begins in 2021.
— Asset inflation has exploded higher since the late 1990s in one asset class after another until now it’s the Everything Bubble. Despite official claims of low inflation, the costs of healthcare, childcare, higher education, rent and other essentials has skyrocketed in the past decade, and the cost of tradable goods is now beginning to accelerate as globalization and financialization unravel long supply chains and zombie corporations.
Resource depletion and geopolitical conflicts could create scarcities that the status quo has long dismissed as “impossible”–scarcities that could push prices for necessities through the roof.
The future won’t be as placid, secure and predictable as the status quo would have you believe. A Covid-19 vaccine, or lack thereof, will have zero effect in terms of reversing these cycles. Call it Fate, call it karma, call it what you will, but the cycles have aligned and nothing can stop the unraveling of all that was foolishly presumed to be permanent.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-20--Will Some Churches Be Forced To Close For The Entire Duration Of The COVID-19 Pandemic?

Isn ’ t it odd that Walmart stores all over the nation have remained open throughout this crisis but we are being told that it is “ too risky ” to hold a church service in many states ?
During this crisis it has often been said that “ my rights do not end where your fears begin ” , but right now we are witnessing a stunning erosion of our First Amendment rights .
Churches remain closed in many states , and some churches in states that have “ reopened ” are now being forced to close down again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Georgia has announced that they will not be holding any in-person worship services “ for the foreseeable future ” … When that church started holding services again recently , extremely strict social distancing guidelines were put into place… But even with all of those restrictions , COVID-19 started spreading in the church .
And so now that church has closed up shop indefinitely .
In Houston , another church that recently reopened has now been forced to close again… Days after the move by the church in Georgia , ABC News reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same after it was discovered multiple members of the organization had contracted the novel coronavirus and one leader had died .
The Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston said the church , which had also reportedly begun hosting mass at the start of May as some coronavirus restrictions on certain businesses in Texas had begun to ease , decided to re-close last week after the death of Father Donnell Kirchner , 79 .
Sadly , we will probably see a lot more stories like this in the weeks and months to come .
But no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t going to be able to prevent people from catching the virus .
In order to do that , we would literally have to shut down everything for a very long time , and that is simply not going to happen .
Whether the current “ shelter-in-place ” restrictions remain in place or not , and whether we are holding church services or not , the truth is that this virus is going to continue to spread .
And it will keep spreading until the vast majority of the U.S. population has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immunity has been achieved .
So shutting down all of our churches is not going to solve anything , but the mainstream media keeps pumping out horror stories about how Christian gatherings are helping to spread COVID-19 .
For example , the following comes from CNN… And here is a story from NBC News about a church in Arkansas… But why don ’ t we ever see any stories about how our major retail stores have become hotbeds for spreading the virus ?
Without a doubt , it would be much easier to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than it would be in a church .
Thousands upon thousands of people are constantly streaming through our big stores , and many of them have got to be absolutely teeming with the virus .
It just greatly disturbs me to see such a double standard going on .
If it is safe enough for people to go to Costco , then it is safe enough for them to go to church .
And the truth is that a lot of our churches are going to end up collapsing if they are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Washington Post , approximately one-third of all U.S. churches “ have no savings ” … Already , some churches have been forced to lay off staff and radically cut expenses .
If they are not allowed to resume normal activity for the foreseeable future , many of them will not end up surviving at all .
Even before this pandemic , it was estimated that somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 churches were dying each year in the United States .
Needless to say , the number for this year will be off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will insist on waiting to reopen until the threat of COVID-19 has completely passed , but that might be a really , really long time .
In fact , a draft Pentagon memo that was just made public is warning that this virus will remain a threat until “ at least the summer of 2021 ” … There are very , very few churches in America that could afford to be shut down for that long .
And what most people don ’ t realize is that COVID-19 is not the worst thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ larger challenges are on the horizon , and they will shake our society to the core .
At a time like this , people need hope , and that is why it is so important for our churches to be up and running .
Unfortunately , many of them now have a closed sign , and that is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future .

by Michael Snyder
Isn’t it odd that Walmart stores all over the nation have remained open throughout this crisis but we are being told that it is “too risky” to hold a church service in many states? During this crisis it has often been said that “my rights do not end where your fears begin”, but right now we are witnessing a stunning erosion of our First Amendment rights. Churches remain closed in many states, and some churches in states that have “reopened” are now being forced to close down again. For example, a Baptist church in Georgia has announced that they will not be holding any in-person worship services “for the foreseeable future”…
A representative for the Catoosa Baptist Tabernacle in Ringgold, Ga., told The Christian Post in a statement on Monday that church decided earlier this month to no longer offer “in-person worship services for the foreseeable future” after confirming some of its families were “dealing with the effects of the COVID-19 virus.”
When that church started holding services again recently, extremely strict social distancing guidelines were put into place…
“Seating was marked to only permit sitting within the six-foot guidelines, all doors were open to allow access without the touching of doors, and attendees were asked to enter in a social distancing manner and were dismissed in a formal manner as well to ensure that the social distancing measures were adhered by all,” the church told the outlet.
But even with all of those restrictions, COVID-19 started spreading in the church.
And so now that church has closed up shop indefinitely.
In Houston, another church that recently reopened has now been forced to close again…
Days after the move by the church in Georgia, ABC News reported that Houston-based Holy Ghost Parish also did the same after it was discovered multiple members of the organization had contracted the novel coronavirus and one leader had died. The Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston said the church, which had also reportedly begun hosting mass at the start of May as some coronavirus restrictions on certain businesses in Texas had begun to ease, decided to re-close last week after the death of Father Donnell Kirchner, 79.
Sadly, we will probably see a lot more stories like this in the weeks and months to come.
But no matter what we do, we aren’t going to be able to prevent people from catching the virus. In order to do that, we would literally have to shut down everything for a very long time, and that is simply not going to happen.
Whether the current “shelter-in-place” restrictions remain in place or not, and whether we are holding church services or not, the truth is that this virus is going to continue to spread.
And it will keep spreading until the vast majority of the U.S. population has been exposed to the virus and herd immunity has been achieved.
So shutting down all of our churches is not going to solve anything, but the mainstream media keeps pumping out horror stories about how Christian gatherings are helping to spread COVID-19. For example, the following comes from CNN…
A person who later learned they were positive for Covid-19 attended a California religious service on Mother’s Day, exposing 180 other people to the novel coronavirus, according to local health officials. The individual got a positive diagnosis for Covid-19 the day after the service and is now in isolation at home, Butte County Public Health said in a statement Friday.
And here is a story from NBC News about a church in Arkansas…
Two people infected with COVID-19 spread the virus to more than 30 people during church gatherings in Arkansas in early March, before the first case was ever diagnosed in that state, according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Tuesday. The cases illustrate how rapidly the virus can spread to others involved in faith-based organizations, and may have implications for places of worship as churches nationwide figure out how to reopen safely.
But why don’t we ever see any stories about how our major retail stores have become hotbeds for spreading the virus?
Without a doubt, it would be much easier to catch COVID-19 in a large retail store than it would be in a church. Thousands upon thousands of people are constantly streaming through our big stores, and many of them have got to be absolutely teeming with the virus.
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It just greatly disturbs me to see such a double standard going on.
If it is safe enough for people to go to Costco, then it is safe enough for them to go to church.
And the truth is that a lot of our churches are going to end up collapsing if they are not permitted to reopen soon. According to the Washington Post, approximately one-third of all U.S. churches “have no savings”…
The novel coronavirus is pressing painfully on the soft underbelly of U.S. houses of worship: their finances. About a third of all congregations have no savings, according to the 2018-2019 National Congregations Study. Just 20 percent streamed their services and 48 percent were able to accept donations electronically, the study found, making it more challenging to serve the faithful and gather their donations during the virus shutdown.
Already, some churches have been forced to lay off staff and radically cut expenses.
If they are not allowed to resume normal activity for the foreseeable future, many of them will not end up surviving at all.
Even before this pandemic, it was estimated that somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 churches were dying each year in the United States.
Needless to say, the number for this year will be off the charts.
Of course some churches will insist on waiting to reopen until the threat of COVID-19 has completely passed, but that might be a really, really long time.
In fact, a draft Pentagon memo that was just made public is warning that this virus will remain a threat until “at least the summer of 2021”…
The Defense Department should prepare to operate in a “globally-persistent” novel coronavirus (COVID-19) environment without an effective vaccine until “at least the summer of 2021,” according to a draft Pentagon memo obtained by Task & Purpose. “We have a long path ahead, with the real possibility of a resurgence of COVID-19,” reads the memo, authored for Secretary of Defense Mark Esper but not yet bearing his signature.
There are very, very few churches in America that could afford to be shut down for that long.
And what most people don’t realize is that COVID-19 is not the worst thing we are going to face. Much larger challenges are on the horizon, and they will shake our society to the core.
At a time like this, people need hope, and that is why it is so important for our churches to be up and running.
Unfortunately, many of them now have a closed sign, and that is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-20--“Free Money”: Most Americans Want The Government To Issue More Stimulus Checks

“ When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.
” That is a direct quote from Benjamin Franklin , and it has turned out to be quite prophetic .
Today , most of our politicians are socialists whether they accept that label or not , and the American people have come to expect the government “ to do something for them ” whenever any sort of a crisis comes along .
In response to this COVID-19 pandemic , Congress has borrowed and spent trillions more dollars that we do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite thrilled to receive their “ stimulus checks ” .
But of course now a lot of people are insisting that those checks were not enough and they want more .
In fact , one new survey just found that most Americans want the checks to keep coming .
The idea of “ free money ” is so seductive , but unfortunately most of the population simply does not understand that eventually there is a great price to be paid for throwing “ free money ” around .
So far , more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during this pandemic .
But during the Spanish Flu pandemic that stretched from 1918 to 1920 , somewhere between 50 million and 100 million people died .
During that horrific pandemic , our society did not shut down and the federal government did not borrow and spend giant mountains of money in a desperate attempt to keep the economy afloat .
Instead , our leaders responded with common sense and quiet resolve , and it set the stage for a tremendous economic boom during “ the Roaring Twenties ” .
Unfortunately , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by locking down nearly the entire country , and that is going to result in the largest GDP collapse in American history… Without a doubt , we are now in a very deep economic depression , and the months ahead look very bleak .
But instead of focusing on solutions , many Americans are desperate for the federal government to take care of them .
According to one recent survey , 82 percent of Americans want the government to issue more “ stimulus checks ” … I have a hard time believing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if you cut that number in half it would still be astounding .
Have we now reached a point where much of the nation is eager to embrace full-blown socialism ?
Apparently so , and that is quite discouraging .
But the “ free money ” that socialists promise is never actually free .
When the Federal Reserve creates trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumps it into the financial system , that is not “ free money ” .
And when the federal government borrows and spends trillions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that is not “ free money ” .
In essence , we are stealing that money from future generations of Americans , and what we are doing is beyond criminal .
For much more on that , please see my recent article entitled “ Fear Of The Coronavirus Has Absolutely Destroyed America ’ s Future ” .
Whenever a new dollar is introduced into the system , it erodes the value of all dollars that currently exist .
Usually this is a relatively slow process , but now our leaders have gone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the way .
In fact , in some sectors of the economy it is already here… The cost of living is going to be soaring , and most Americans will not be seeing matching increases in their paychecks .
In fact , more than 36 million American workers no longer have a job at all .
Things are about to get really tough for average American families .
Some are going into more debt in order to get through this crisis , while others are dipping into their retirement savings… As time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans will eventually come to a financial breaking point , and there will be a tremendous amount of pressure on the government “ to do something ” once again .
And just like we have seen with so many other socialist experiments , the answer will always be more “ free money ” .
But to see where this ends , just look at Venezuela .
Nearly everyone in the entire country is a “ millionaire ” , but nearly everyone in the entire country is also living in deep poverty .
Once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is nearly impossible to restore it .
And we are in the process of destroying faith in the reserve currency that the entire world uses .
Unfortunately , our leaders are not listening to people like me .
Instead , they are willing to try just about anything to turn the collapsing U.S. economy around .
At this point , even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is admitting that this is the worst economic downturn that we have seen “ since World War II ” … Sadly , things didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If our leaders had responded rationally to this pandemic , the U.S. economy would still be in relatively decent shape .
But now our economic bubble has burst , and very challenging days are ahead of us .
As our problems mount , a lot of people are going to insist that “ free money ” is the solution .
Of course it isn ’ t any sort of a solution at all .
“ Free money ” is actually economic poison , and the U.S. economy is never going to recover @ @ @

by Michael Snyder
“When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.” That is a direct quote from Benjamin Franklin, and it has turned out to be quite prophetic. Today, most of our politicians are socialists whether they accept that label or not, and the American people have come to expect the government “to do something for them” whenever any sort of a crisis comes along. In response to this COVID-19 pandemic, Congress has borrowed and spent trillions more dollars that we do not have, and most Americans have been quite thrilled to receive their “stimulus checks”. But of course now a lot of people are insisting that those checks were not enough and they want more. In fact, one new survey just found that most Americans want the checks to keep coming. The idea of “free money” is so seductive, but unfortunately most of the population simply does not understand that eventually there is a great price to be paid for throwing “free money” around.
So far, more than 300,000 people across the globe have died during this pandemic. But during the Spanish Flu pandemic that stretched from 1918 to 1920, somewhere between 50 million and 100 million people died. During that horrific pandemic, our society did not shut down and the federal government did not borrow and spend giant mountains of money in a desperate attempt to keep the economy afloat. Instead, our leaders responded with common sense and quiet resolve, and it set the stage for a tremendous economic boom during “the Roaring Twenties”.
Unfortunately, this time around our leaders responded to COVID-19 by locking down nearly the entire country, and that is going to result in the largest GDP collapse in American history…
In its latest projections, the CBO sees GDP capsizing 38% on an annualized basis in the second quarter with the 26 million more unemployed Americans than there were at the end of 2019. The forecasts are roughly in line with Wall Street economists and slightly less dour than the most recent tracking number from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, which sees GDP falling about 42% in the April-to-June period.
Without a doubt, we are now in a very deep economic depression, and the months ahead look very bleak.
But instead of focusing on solutions, many Americans are desperate for the federal government to take care of them. According to one recent survey, 82 percent of Americans want the government to issue more “stimulus checks”…
A whopping 82% of people feel that the one-time stimulus check of $1,200 is not enough to cover their expenses. They feel that these checks should continue until the lockdown ends.
I have a hard time believing that number is actually that high, but even if you cut that number in half it would still be astounding.
Have we now reached a point where much of the nation is eager to embrace full-blown socialism?
Apparently so, and that is quite discouraging.
But the “free money” that socialists promise is never actually free.
When the Federal Reserve creates trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumps it into the financial system, that is not “free money”.
And when the federal government borrows and spends trillions of dollars that we do not currently have, that is not “free money”. In essence, we are stealing that money from future generations of Americans, and what we are doing is beyond criminal. For much more on that, please see my recent article entitled “Fear Of The Coronavirus Has Absolutely Destroyed America’s Future”.
Whenever a new dollar is introduced into the system, it erodes the value of all dollars that currently exist. Usually this is a relatively slow process, but now our leaders have gone absolutely nuts and very painful inflation is on the way.
In fact, in some sectors of the economy it is already here…
Harold’s Chicken on Broadway in Chicago unleashed a wave of public backlash on social media last weekend after it slapped customers with a COVID-19 surcharge of 26%. Restaurant manager Jacquelyn Santana told CBS Chicago that food suppliers raised wholesale chicken prices by 26% on Saturday “due to the COVID pandemic.” She said a case of chicken wings that generally cost $60, jumped overnight to $90, forcing the wing shop to pass on the costs.
The cost of living is going to be soaring, and most Americans will not be seeing matching increases in their paychecks.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In fact, more than 36 million American workers no longer have a job at all.
Things are about to get really tough for average American families. Some are going into more debt in order to get through this crisis, while others are dipping into their retirement savings…
MagnifyMoney commissioned a survey of 1,239 Americans who have retirement accounts. Many of the analyses conducted look at responses by the “generation” of the responders. Gen Z is defined as ages 18-23, Millennials are 24-39, Gen X is 40-54, Baby Boomers are 55-74, and the “silent generation” is aged 75+. The survey shows that 30% of Americans have withdrawn an average of $6,757.20 from their retirement savings from about March 1 through May 1. Another 19% responded that they have not taken money out yet but they plan to do so.
As time goes by, an increasing number of Americans will eventually come to a financial breaking point, and there will be a tremendous amount of pressure on the government “to do something” once again.
And just like we have seen with so many other socialist experiments, the answer will always be more “free money”.
But to see where this ends, just look at Venezuela. Nearly everyone in the entire country is a “millionaire”, but nearly everyone in the entire country is also living in deep poverty.
Once faith in a currency is destroyed, it is nearly impossible to restore it.
And we are in the process of destroying faith in the reserve currency that the entire world uses.
Unfortunately, our leaders are not listening to people like me. Instead, they are willing to try just about anything to turn the collapsing U.S. economy around.
At this point, even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is admitting that this is the worst economic downturn that we have seen “since World War II”…
The pair offered a cautious view of the economy, with Mnuchin displaying a more optimistic outlook than Powell, who told the Senate Banking Committee that “the scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent and are significantly worse than any recession since World War II.” Mnuchin noted that he anticipated the economy would recover but said “there is risk of permanent damage” should states wait too long in reopening their economies.
Sadly, things didn’t have to get so bad so soon.
If our leaders had responded rationally to this pandemic, the U.S. economy would still be in relatively decent shape.
But now our economic bubble has burst, and very challenging days are ahead of us.
As our problems mount, a lot of people are going to insist that “free money” is the solution.
Of course it isn’t any sort of a solution at all. “Free money” is actually economic poison, and the U.S. economy is never going to recover from this.