investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--America Ready For Full Societal Breakdown, Economic Collapse And Planned Starvation!

As has become the world ’ s new normal , this week ’ s news was yet another long march of troubling economic collapse news and pessimistic predictions .
Experts and economists that spent months forecasting a speedy economic bounceback after the health crisis abates and businesses are able to reopen have changed their tune in recent weeks as it becomes clear that it won ’ t be so easy .
However , one prominent voice reflected the opposite opinion .
Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman was quick to join the generally dreary conversation with new assurances that there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this video , we ’ re going to discuss different expert predictions and let you know which ones are worth listening to and which ones fall flat , too bloated with false optimism to become reality in this flagging global economy .
We will show the signs pointing towards the next great depression , and where those in power went wrong .
Paul Krugman , a world-renowned economist with extensive work in the niches of international trade and economic geography , suggested that existing models of economic trends and troubles may not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and unprecedented situation .
He said that the current economic collapse holds much in common with the 1979-82 economic slump , which was followed by a much quicker return to stability and prosperity than was seen in other crises such as the stock market crash of 2007-2009 .
Furthermore , this deficit spending is being financed by Fed credit created out of thin air .
This scramble to keep things afloat now is short-sighted , and fails to account for the inflation and economic collapse that will play out as direct results .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this depression , more conventional responses like stimulus or tax cuts won ’ t work .
Instead , he argued that we should be focusing on safety-net issues .
In the present moment , the economy and the financial system as a whole is in serious danger .
Despite Krugman ’ s claims , this depression will not be cyclical .
This is a full societal breakdown , and it is too far gone to be undone now .
As we continue to charge down this path to economic collapse , numerous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like they did following the 2008-09 bailouts ?
Alternatively , as free money is being handed out to US citizens , will consumer prices inflate ?
Will the Fed ’ s money printing strategies produce an economic boom or will the economy stall as inflation rises to unbearable highs ?
A recent poll released by the US Census Bureau found that at least nine million American households where children live at home do not have food security .
Those nine million households each reported that they worried they would not have sufficient supplies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next month .
To make matters worse , millions of citizens are also experiencing housing insecurity , largely due to an inability to make rent payments on time .
Food banks across the country are struggling to stay at pace with an ever-increasing demand for food , while donations also dry up as Americans try to reserve supplies for their own households and families .
According to the data , more than nine million households are “ not at all confident ” that they will be able to afford food in the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more when the wording is changed to only “ somewhat confident ” about their food security–then topping out at approximately 18 million households .
A shocking 74 percent of families in the United States are now living paycheck-to-paycheck as the federal government ’ s hesitance to offer assistance caused widespread panic and suffering .
A one-time direct payment of $ 1200 is simply not enough to sustain most households .
And the effect of these strains on Americans may extend beyond the crisis at hand and inflict lasting damage on the mental health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier this month found that a third of Americans have begun to exhibit signs of clinical anxiety or depression since the pandemic began .
People face the risk of being evicted from their own homes if they can ’ t pay their rent due to job loss , of being unable to pay for necessary medical care after losing employment insurance plans , and many other worries .
They can not look to their government for relief , as there is no guarantee of payments extending through the entire duration of this crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be nothing short of a full societal breakdown , marked by angry protests and other backlashes .
When the weekly $ 600 checks stop showing up this summer , with no further $ 1200 stimulus payments yet approved , and continued government bungling of the pandemic response , the social reaction will be far from positive , and likely far from calm or reasonable .

As has become the world’s new normal, this week’s news was yet another long march of troubling economic collapse news and pessimistic predictions. Experts and economists that spent months forecasting a speedy economic bounceback after the health crisis abates and businesses are able to reopen have changed their tune in recent weeks as it becomes clear that it won’t be so easy. However, one prominent voice reflected the opposite opinion. Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman was quick to join the generally dreary conversation with new assurances that there is still hope and prosperity ahead.
In this video, we’re going to discuss different expert predictions and let you know which ones are worth listening to and which ones fall flat, too bloated with false optimism to become reality in this flagging global economy. We will show the signs pointing towards the next great depression, and where those in power went wrong.
Paul Krugman, a world-renowned economist with extensive work in the niches of international trade and economic geography, suggested that existing models of economic trends and troubles may not be entirely accurate in dealing with this new and unprecedented situation. He said that the current economic collapse holds much in common with the 1979-82 economic slump, which was followed by a much quicker return to stability and prosperity than was seen in other crises such as the stock market crash of 2007-2009.
Furthermore, this deficit spending is being financed by Fed credit created out of thin air. This scramble to keep things afloat now is short-sighted, and fails to account for the inflation and economic collapse that will play out as direct results.
Krugman said that, in the context of this depression, more conventional responses like stimulus or tax cuts won’t work. Instead, he argued that we should be focusing on safety-net issues.
In the present moment, the economy and the financial system as a whole is in serious danger. Despite Krugman’s claims, this depression will not be cyclical. This is a full societal breakdown, and it is too far gone to be undone now.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As we continue to charge down this path to economic collapse, numerous questions arise. Will financial assets inflate like they did following the 2008-09 bailouts? Alternatively, as free money is being handed out to US citizens, will consumer prices inflate? Will the Fed’s money printing strategies produce an economic boom or will the economy stall as inflation rises to unbearable highs?
A recent poll released by the US Census Bureau found that at least nine million American households where children live at home do not have food security. Those nine million households each reported that they worried they would not have sufficient supplies to keep their families fed over the next month. To make matters worse, millions of citizens are also experiencing housing insecurity, largely due to an inability to make rent payments on time.
Food banks across the country are struggling to stay at pace with an ever-increasing demand for food, while donations also dry up as Americans try to reserve supplies for their own households and families. According to the data, more than nine million households are “not at all confident” that they will be able to afford food in the next month, but the numbers jump even more when the wording is changed to only “somewhat confident” about their food security–then topping out at approximately 18 million households.
A shocking 74 percent of families in the United States are now living paycheck-to-paycheck as the federal government’s hesitance to offer assistance caused widespread panic and suffering. A one-time direct payment of $1200 is simply not enough to sustain most households.
And the effect of these strains on Americans may extend beyond the crisis at hand and inflict lasting damage on the mental health of many.
A Census survey taken earlier this month found that a third of Americans have begun to exhibit signs of clinical anxiety or depression since the pandemic began. People face the risk of being evicted from their own homes if they can’t pay their rent due to job loss, of being unable to pay for necessary medical care after losing employment insurance plans, and many other worries. They can not look to their government for relief, as there is no guarantee of payments extending through the entire duration of this crisis.
So, what’s coming will be nothing short of a full societal breakdown, marked by angry protests and other backlashes. When the weekly $600 checks stop showing up this summer, with no further $1200 stimulus payments yet approved, and continued government bungling of the pandemic response, the social reaction will be far from positive, and likely far from calm or reasonable.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Comparing Death Rates In Democrat and Republican States From COVID-19

So what states are most effective in preventing death from COVID-19 ?
It seems as though the Republican states are .
Let ’ s take a look .
Consequences of the anti-HCQ Media Operation The situation was aggravated by actions of some state governments , which started restricting access to HCQ for COVID-19 victims .
The Governor of New York outright denied HCQ to COVID-19 victims , except for inpatient treatment and clinical studies .
Physicians felt pressured to postpone HCQ treatment for COVID-19 patients .
Instead of beginning HCQ treatment as early as possible , they postponed its use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Late treatment with HCQ was frequently used as compassionate care for the most desperate causes .
Delaware ’ s HCQ policy illustrates this thinking in late March : “ This drug is used in very limited instances for very critically ill patients with COVID-19 , in a clinical setting.
” This led to statistics in which use of HCQ was correlated with worse outcomes .
Bad actors exploited the correlation-as-causation fallacy to advocate against HCQ .
Apparently , in the early April the medical establishment in the North East ( inclusive of NY @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PA , MD , and DC ) decided against the use of HCQ as a COVID-19 treatment .
Coincidentally or not , this area became the main COVID-19 death cluster , responsible for more than 60 % of the US COVID-19 deaths .
HCQ State Orders Lacking the authority to completely ban doctors from prescribing HCQ , some governors restricted pharmacies from fulfilling prescriptions to COVID-19 patients , but not to other patients .
Notice that the rational policy to deal with shortage would have been to limit dispensed quantities of HCQ to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all patients receive the drug .
The effect of the inverted policy was suffering of COVID-19 victims , stockpiling of the drug by users with 90-day prescriptions , and increased shortages .
New York and Michigan outright banned dispensing HCQ to COVID-19 victims , with rare exceptions , and allowed stockpiling by other users .
Apparently , when pharmacies in New York ran out of HCQ , lupus patients raided neighboring states .
Some states did not ban , but created obstacles for COVID-19 victims , like the requirement that the patient tested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of tests was limited ) .
In the best case , the result was delay of HCQ treatment , sharply decreasing its anti-viral efficiency .
NY ’ s policy on HCQ fulfillment was probably the worst ( score : 10 ) : No pharmacist shall dispense hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine except when written as prescribed for an FDA-approved indication ; or as part of a state approved clinical trial related to COVID-19 for a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19 , with such test result documented as part of the prescription .
No @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permitted , and any permitted prescription is limited to one fourteen-day prescription with no refills .
The result of banning the use of Hydroxychloroquine in those states was a very high death rate : This map shows the states with higher than average US COVID-19 mortality rates .
Darker red indicates states with more than 500 deaths per million .
Lighter red indicates more than US average , or 250-500 deaths per million .
New York , a few surrounding states , and DC create a cluster , which accounts for more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This can not be explained by residents ’ traffic .
While people from NJ and CT commute to NYC , there is not much regular traffic between NY and MA or PA .
It is likely that the unreasonable HCQ policies in NY and NJ caused shortages of HCQ , which spilled over to the neighboring states .
This suggests that lack of HCQ for COVID-19 patients was a factor in increasing COVID-19 mortality rates .

So what states are most effective in preventing death from COVID-19? It seems as though the Republican states are. Let’s take a look.
Consequences of the anti-HCQ Media Operation
The situation was aggravated by actions of some state governments, which started restricting access to HCQ for COVID-19 victims. The Governor of New York outright denied HCQ to COVID-19 victims, except for inpatient treatment and clinical studies. Physicians felt pressured to postpone HCQ treatment for COVID-19 patients. Instead of beginning HCQ treatment as early as possible, they postponed its use the late stages of the disease.
Late treatment with HCQ was frequently used as compassionate care for the most desperate causes. Delaware’s HCQ policy illustrates this thinking in late March: “This drug is used in very limited instances for very critically ill patients with COVID-19, in a clinical setting.” This led to statistics in which use of HCQ was correlated with worse outcomes. Bad actors exploited the correlation-as-causation fallacy to advocate against HCQ.
Apparently, in the early April the medical establishment in the North East (inclusive of NY, NJ, MA, CT, PA, MD, and DC) decided against the use of HCQ as a COVID-19 treatment. Coincidentally or not, this area became the main COVID-19 death cluster, responsible for more than 60% of the US COVID-19 deaths.
HCQ State Orders
Lacking the authority to completely ban doctors from prescribing HCQ, some governors restricted pharmacies from fulfilling prescriptions to COVID-19 patients, but not to other patients. Notice that the rational policy to deal with shortage would have been to limit dispensed quantities of HCQ to everyone. This would have ensured that all patients receive the drug. The effect of the inverted policy was suffering of COVID-19 victims, stockpiling of the drug by users with 90-day prescriptions, and increased shortages. New York and Michigan outright banned dispensing HCQ to COVID-19 victims, with rare exceptions, and allowed stockpiling by other users. Apparently, when pharmacies in New York ran out of HCQ, lupus patients raided neighboring states.
Some states did not ban, but created obstacles for COVID-19 victims, like the requirement that the patient tested positive for COVID-19 (when the availability of tests was limited). In the best case, the result was delay of HCQ treatment, sharply decreasing its anti-viral efficiency.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
NY’s policy on HCQ fulfillment was probably the worst (score: 10):
No pharmacist shall dispense hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine except when written as prescribed for an FDA-approved indication; or as part of a state approved clinical trial related to COVID-19 for a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19, with such test result documented as part of the prescription. No other experimental or prophylactic use shall be permitted, and any permitted prescription is limited to one fourteen-day prescription with no refills.
The result of banning the use of Hydroxychloroquine in those states was a very high death rate:
This map shows the states with higher than average US COVID-19 mortality rates. Darker red indicates states with more than 500 deaths per million. Lighter red indicates more than US average, or 250-500 deaths per million. New York, a few surrounding states, and DC create a cluster, which accounts for more than 60% of US COVID-19 deaths. This cannot be explained by residents’ traffic. While people from NJ and CT commute to NYC, there is not much regular traffic between NY and MA or PA. It is likely that the unreasonable HCQ policies in NY and NJ caused shortages of HCQ, which spilled over to the neighboring states. This suggests that lack of HCQ for COVID-19 patients was a factor in increasing COVID-19 mortality rates.
wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/d…9-victims/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Italy Sees COVID-19 Weakening

Italy Sees COVID-19 Weakening

May 31 , 2020 , 8:43 AM HST ROME ( Reuters ) – The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal , a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday .
“ In reality , the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy , ” said Alberto Zangrillo , the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy , which has borne the brunt of Italy ’ s coronavirus contagion .
“ The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carried out a month or two months ago , ” he told RAI television .
Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19 , with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21 .
It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019 .
However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent .
Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed to take into account the new reality .

by Natura Naturans
May 31, 2020, 8:43 AM HST
ROME (Reuters) – The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.
“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
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Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.
However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.
Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.
news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-losin…58113.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Biden’s VP List Just Got SHORTER! Look Who Just Withdrew Their Name!

Reagan McCarthy from Townhall reports , Presumed Democratic nominee Joe Biden ’ s vice presidential shortlist became shorter on Thursday @ @ @ @ @ Cortez Masto ( D-NV ) withdrew her name from consideration .
Cortez Masto , who @ @ @ @ @ s Attorney General , was elected to the upper chamber in 2016 as the first @ @ @ @ @ the Senate .

Reagan McCarthy from Townhall reports, Presumed Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s vice presidential shortlist became shorter on Thursday night, when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) withdrew her name from consideration. Cortez Masto, who previously served as Nevada’s Attorney General, was elected to the upper chamber in 2016 as the first Latina woman to serve in the Senate.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/reaganmccarthy/2020/05/29/sen-cortez-masto-withdraws-her-name-from-consideration-for-vp-n2569650


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--People seem to have forgotten the saying “To correctly time the market, you have to be right twice.”

If you sell your holdings to buy back in at a lower level , you have to be right twice .
You have to be right about that decision to sell and your future decision to buy back in .
People will say “ you just need to buy back in at a lower cost.
” But it ’ s really not that simple .
Unless the market plays out to your plan perfectly , you will always be at the mercy of human psychology and will likely lose money in the long run .
Take a look at threads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were proudly saying left and right that they have liquidated their portfolio and will buy back in when the market seems less irrational.. And that they are ok with missing out future gains .
What do you think those people are doing right now ?
I bet you that 50 % of them have already bought back in at the higher price because their mind was yelling “ if you dont get in now , you will never get back in.
” The other 50 % are watching the market very closely and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upwards.. And let ’ s say… They were right !
SPY will dip back to 250 .
The remaiming 50 % of people I talked about were technically right about their decision to sell .
But the drop won ’ t happen overnight .
It will be a multiple days or weeks process .
15 % of people will actually buy back in when SPY retreats to 290 and lingers there for a few days… They will be mentally scarred after seeing SPY shoot above 300 and their only wish is to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this stress .
So at any opportunity they see , they will jump back in despite their original cost being 270 .
The remaining 35 % people will now breathe a sigh of relief as they watch SPY dip below their original selling price of 270..
When SPY hits 260 , another 10 % of people will buy back in.. All that stress and risk of forever being out of the market all for a 4 % gain..
When SPY hits 250 , another 10 % of people will buy back in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off .
But how about the remaining 15 % ?
They were waiting for SPY to hit 240… But lets say 250 was the new bottom and SPY sloely climbs back up .
Half of those people ( 7.5 % ) will watch the market go back up to 280 and buy back in after giving up .
The other half will never buy back in because psychology wont allow them .
These are the scenarios that are likely to happen when you try to time the market .
I say this as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aboove during my attempt at timing the market .
If your time period is 10+ years , then the risk of selling to buy back in at a lower price is far greater than the 10 % gain you might achieve by doing so… Even if the market crashes 30 % again , the average investor is better off just ignoring the noise and staying in the game to guarantee that they can leap the long-term benefit of investing… Because thats where the magic really happens .
15 years from now it wont @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchase of SPY at 300 vs. 270 .
But what will matter is if you somehow got burned at trying to time the market and never got back in… Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Fois2
If you sell your holdings to buy back in at a lower level, you have to be right twice. You have to be right about that decision to sell and your future decision to buy back in.
People will say “you just need to buy back in at a lower cost.” But it’s really not that simple. Unless the market plays out to your plan perfectly, you will always be at the mercy of human psychology and will likely lose money in the long run.
Take a look at threads when SPY was at 290. People were proudly saying left and right that they have liquidated their portfolio and will buy back in when the market seems less irrational.. And that they are ok with missing out future gains.
What do you think those people are doing right now? I bet you that 50% of them have already bought back in at the higher price because their mind was yelling “if you dont get in now, you will never get back in.” The other 50% are watching the market very closely and banging their desk every time SPY ticks upwards..
And let’s say… They were right! SPY will dip back to 250. The remaiming 50% of people I talked about were technically right about their decision to sell. But the drop won’t happen overnight. It will be a multiple days or weeks process.
15% of people will actually buy back in when SPY retreats to 290 and lingers there for a few days… They will be mentally scarred after seeing SPY shoot above 300 and their only wish is to get back into the market and get rid of this stress. So at any opportunity they see, they will jump back in despite their original cost being 270.
The remaining 35% people will now breathe a sigh of relief as they watch SPY dip below their original selling price of 270.. When SPY hits 260, another 10% of people will buy back in.. All that stress and risk of forever being out of the market all for a 4% gain..
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When SPY hits 250, another 10% of people will buy back in. Ok good job your timing paid off.
But how about the remaining 15%? They were waiting for SPY to hit 240… But lets say 250 was the new bottom and SPY sloely climbs back up.
Half of those people (7.5%) will watch the market go back up to 280 and buy back in after giving up. The other half will never buy back in because psychology wont allow them.
These are the scenarios that are likely to happen when you try to time the market. I say this as someone who has experienced all of the aboove during my attempt at timing the market.
If your time period is 10+ years, then the risk of selling to buy back in at a lower price is far greater than the 10% gain you might achieve by doing so… Even if the market crashes 30% again, the average investor is better off just ignoring the noise and staying in the game to guarantee that they can leap the long-term benefit of investing… Because thats where the magic really happens.
15 years from now it wont matter much if you made your initial purchase of SPY at 300 vs. 270. But what will matter is if you somehow got burned at trying to time the market and never got back in…
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--DD: Berkshire is trading at 450B valuation but has intrinsic value of at least 570B

This is just a back of the envelope calculation .
Not all Berkshire companies are included so this should really be a lower bound of the intrinsic value of Berkshire This is a conservative estimate of the value .
There are some big companies that are left out .
There is also some small debt that is left out but in truth the company could take on an additional 100B loan if it really wanted – that would only be 50 % leverage on their stock portfolio not even counting their other assets that they can lend against .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash position with 25 % ( because it is just sitting there doing nothing ) then Berkshire is very much undervalued .
If you discount the entire 130B cash position then Berkshire is trading at fair value .
Some people might note that over the last 1,5,10 or whatever many years Berkshire has ( slightly ) lagged the S & P500 .
Well no shit if it is only trading at less than 80 % of the intrinsic value then yes it has lagged .
But if it were trading for its true @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S & P500 .
The fact that it has not beat the S & P500 because it is trading below what it is worth is what makes this an opportunity because this gap will close .
I know that many here will say that the stock is going to tank once Warren dies but really I think that would be good for Berkshire .
It is trading at a discount in part because Warren has been very busy doing nothing for many years now .
Once he dies that cash is more likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , either for buybacks or for acquisitions , or even for buying SPY .
So many people have said they are waiting for Berkshire to go down once he dies and that will be when they buy in .
I think there won ’ t be that opportunity .
This thing is so much undervalued already and lots of investors are ready to go once he passes away .
Sure it could be another decade before he gives up control over Berkshire but there will be something done with the cash pile before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , buy that elephant , or they buy SPY .
Until then it is a well diversified company .
The only thing wrong with Berkshire is they are underleveraged .
Not the worst mistake to make .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by autosharp
This is just a back of the envelope calculation. Not all Berkshire companies are included so this should really be a lower bound of the intrinsic value of Berkshire
BH Asset Value in Billion USD Their stock portfolio 205 Cash 130 Occidental preferred (10B payed, doing a 5B write down) 5 Precision Castfarts 35 BH Energy 35 BNSF 35 Lubrizon 10 Duracell 5 Sees Candies 1 Pilot Flying J 3 NetJets 2 Marmon Group 5 Clayton Homes 2 IMC 5 Dairy Queen 5 Various construction and materials companies 5 Various logistics 4 Fruit of the Loom + Russell Brands 2 Geico 25 General RE 50 Total 570
Sources are en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_Hathaway and www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/
This is a conservative estimate of the value. There are some big companies that are left out. There is also some small debt that is left out but in truth the company could take on an additional 100B loan if it really wanted – that would only be 50% leverage on their stock portfolio not even counting their other assets that they can lend against.
Even if you discount the value of the cash position with 25% (because it is just sitting there doing nothing) then Berkshire is very much undervalued. If you discount the entire 130B cash position then Berkshire is trading at fair value.
Some people might note that over the last 1,5,10 or whatever many years Berkshire has (slightly) lagged the S&P500. Well no shit if it is only trading at less than 80% of the intrinsic value then yes it has lagged. But if it were trading for its true value it would have clearly beat the S&P500. The fact that it has not beat the S&P500 because it is trading below what it is worth is what makes this an opportunity because this gap will close.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I know that many here will say that the stock is going to tank once Warren dies but really I think that would be good for Berkshire. It is trading at a discount in part because Warren has been very busy doing nothing for many years now. Once he dies that cash is more likely to be used than it is now, either for buybacks or for acquisitions, or even for buying SPY.
So many people have said they are waiting for Berkshire to go down once he dies and that will be when they buy in. I think there won’t be that opportunity. This thing is so much undervalued already and lots of investors are ready to go once he passes away.
Sure it could be another decade before he gives up control over Berkshire but there will be something done with the cash pile before then. Either they buy back stock, buy that elephant, or they buy SPY. Until then it is a well diversified company.
The only thing wrong with Berkshire is they are underleveraged. Not the worst mistake to make.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--The World Runs on USD: How and Why

The World Runs on USD: How and Why

Here ’ s a rundown of how the world economy uses USD and what it does to its value and underlying economy : The American Dollar is the global reserve currency—an international medium of exchange and store of value for most major countries .
Think of USD like an international Gold Standard , a hedge against volatility or sudden changes in exchange values .
American dollars are the primary vehicle through which international commodities are purchased ( e.g .
oil ) and debts are serviced .
If the world ’ s GDP PPP looked like a pie : • Everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % Where does the world ’ s supply of U.S. dollars come from ?
Countries and foreign interests buildup stockpiles by purchasing U.S. Treasuries ( American Debt ) Unlike a gold standard , the USD is tied to an economy creating inherent advantages/disadvantages , and a Trade Deficit within the U.S .
This deficit is self-reinforcing rather than planned : • International demand outweighs supply of the global reserve currency , driving value up • Higher USD values make US exports less competitive and imports more affordable • The result : U.S. buys @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the difference by selling treasuries ( U.S. dollars and debt ) Direct access to a high value currency has an unintended side affect on U.S. residents : • Americans benefit from higher relative asset values & greater borrowing power enabling U.S. residents to live beyond their means • It also hollows out manufacturing and labor sector by negatively affecting their affordability as an international workforce International debt also increases demand for USD in a cyclical manner : • Higher debt leads to more debt servicing in American dollars , increasing demand for it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currency , which increases the value of the debt , which must be serviced in…you guessed it : USD • Debt to GDP ratios for most countries have been rising in recent years , exacerbating this trend How much debt/USD is out there ?
About $ 12.1 trillion in USD as of Q3 2019 , or 56 % of U.S. GDP , and 78 % of the broad U.S. money supply .
In other words , there is an extreme supply/demand issue for USD increasing its value over time .
Why does this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacts growth of non-U.S. markets : Here is a representation of past and potential future USD values : Why should you care ?
As international S & P outstrips domestic S & P , the U.S. becomes vulnerable to its own rising dollar value .
In other words , the more revenue the U.S. generates outside of its own economy , the more they stand to lose when they exchange foreign currency back into their own rising USD ( e.g .
: S & P 500 now receives over 40 % of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come U.S. corporations with interests abroad aren ’ t feeling the burn ?
They are .
The effects are somewhat masked by higher equity valuations , corporate tax cuts ( boosting after-tax profits ) , and stock buy backs at the end of each year , increasing per-share earnings , despite company-wide operating income stagnating .
More troubling , is that foreigner investors/governments have been buying very little U.S. treasury notes ( debt ) since 2015 due its rising cost .
As a result , domestic sources have had to buy most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treasuries issued from Q1 2015 to Q3 2019 • $ 3.9 trillion funded domestically , meaning $ 3.9 trillion USD was removed from U.S. financial system and converted into Treasuries over a five-year period This resulted in temporary , but large USD liquidity drain .
U.S. Federal Reserve immediately printed money to borrow and buy the excess U.S. Treasuries , stabilizing the Repo Market .
The takeaway from this wall of text : Newly issued U.S. Treasuries are now funded by newly created U.S. dollars because foreign buyers can ’ t afford or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a high price for it , despite needing it .
The global currency system is running into a supply issue as value increase , while the U.S. slowly loses share of the global GDP .
The inherent nature of a global reserve currency , and its underlying economy , makes it temporary albeit potentially long lasting .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ThisistheEndMyFren
Here’s a rundown of how the world economy uses USD and what it does to its value and underlying economy:
The American Dollar is the global reserve currency—an international medium of exchange and store of value for most major countries.
Think of USD like an international Gold Standard, a hedge against volatility or sudden changes in exchange values.
American dollars are the primary vehicle through which international commodities are purchased (e.g. oil) and debts are serviced.
If the world’s GDP PPP looked like a pie:
U.S. Global GDP (PPP): 24%
China Global GDP (PPP): 15%
Everyone else: > 6 (each)%
Where does the world’s supply of U.S. dollars come from?
Countries and foreign interests buildup stockpiles by purchasing U.S. Treasuries (American Debt)
Unlike a gold standard, the USD is tied to an economy creating inherent advantages/disadvantages, and a Trade Deficit within the U.S.
This deficit is self-reinforcing rather than planned:
International demand outweighs supply of the global reserve currency, driving value up
Higher USD values make US exports less competitive and imports more affordable
The result: U.S. buys more than it sells and makes up the difference by selling treasuries (U.S. dollars and debt)
Direct access to a high value currency has an unintended side affect on U.S. residents:
Americans benefit from higher relative asset values & greater borrowing power enabling U.S. residents to live beyond their means
It also hollows out manufacturing and labor sector by negatively affecting their affordability as an international workforce
International debt also increases demand for USD in a cyclical manner:
Higher debt leads to more debt servicing in American dollars, increasing demand for it, which increases the value of the currency, which increases the value of the debt, which must be serviced in…you guessed it: USD
Debt to GDP ratios for most countries have been rising in recent years, exacerbating this trend
How much debt/USD is out there?
About $12.1 trillion in USD as of Q3 2019, or 56% of U.S. GDP, and 78% of the broad U.S. money supply.
In other words, there is an extreme supply/demand issue for USD increasing its value over time.
Why does this matter?
The strength of the USD impacts growth of non-U.S. markets:
Low USD value supports growth in emerging international markets
High USD values hinders growth in emerging international markets
Here is a representation of past and potential future USD values:
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Why should you care?
As international S&P outstrips domestic S&P, the U.S. becomes vulnerable to its own rising dollar value.
In other words, the more revenue the U.S. generates outside of its own economy, the more they stand to lose when they exchange foreign currency back into their own rising USD (e.g.: S&P 500 now receives over 40% of its revenue from international sources).
How come U.S. corporations with interests abroad aren’t feeling the burn?
They are. The effects are somewhat masked by higher equity valuations, corporate tax cuts (boosting after-tax profits), and stock buy backs at the end of each year, increasing per-share earnings, despite company-wide operating income stagnating.
More troubling, is that foreigner investors/governments have been buying very little U.S. treasury notes (debt) since 2015 due its rising cost. As a result, domestic sources have had to buy most of it:
4.6 trillion in U.S. treasuries issued from Q1 2015 to Q3 2019
$3.9 trillion funded domestically, meaning $3.9 trillion USD was removed from U.S. financial system and converted into Treasuries over a five-year period
This resulted in temporary, but large USD liquidity drain.
U.S. Federal Reserve immediately printed money to borrow and buy the excess U.S. Treasuries, stabilizing the Repo Market.
The takeaway from this wall of text:
Newly issued U.S. Treasuries are now funded by newly created U.S. dollars because foreign buyers can’t afford or don’t want to pay such a high price for it, despite needing it.
&
The global currency system is running into a supply issue as value increase, while the U.S. slowly loses share of the global GDP.
&
The inherent nature of a global reserve currency, and its underlying economy, makes it temporary albeit potentially long lasting.
Thanks for listening.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Thanks to #Antifa, the political left just lost every argument they have ever made, except for abort

Thanks to # Antifa , the political left just lost every argument they have ever made , except for abortion @ @ @ @ @ persuasion perspective .
Second Amendment ?
Stronger than ever .
Police are a problem ?
@ @ @ @ @ , with universal agreement about the George Floyd video , until Antifa turned police into @ @ @ @ @ Reparations ?
Not the best week to raise the topic .
Bad optics is an @ @ @ @ @ leaders ?
Good luck with that argument this week .

twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1267190263388057600
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays
Thanks to #Antifa, the political left just lost every
argument they have ever made, except for abortion. At least
from a persuasion perspective.
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays
Second Amendment? Stronger than ever.
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays
Income inequality? Hard to care when “protestors” are
destroying minority owned businesses.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays
Police are a problem? The left owned that issue, with
universal agreement about the George Floyd video, until
Antifa turned police into the saviors of civilization.
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays
Reparations? Not the best week to raise the topic. Bad
optics is an understatement.
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays
Democrats are better leaders? Good luck with that argument
this week.
h/t dr0id


The GAP DD

The GAP ( GPS ) reports this Thursday and I think it will be a disappointment .
The GAP is a discount clothing retailer that operates large physical footprint stores across the USA and other countries .
I am looking at this primarily from a TA perspective : lower high formed on 5/29 – the stock has been stuck in a $ 7-9 channel since early April .
It is attempting a breakout above 10 but I believe it will fail .
Stochs indicate overbought condition .
CMF remains negative .
Lower high formed in intraday trading on a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stocks are outperforming as more stores open and reports on traffic indicate at least some moderate activity with shoppers amid social distancing rules .
More specifically the apparel sector has seen signs of life : ANF , UAA , RL , GES , etc .
Analysts at some banks have been upgrading GPS .
BUT my retort is that if you look at the price action immediately after earnings for the retail stocks they have returned only lower highs and failed to maintain their momentum upwards .
GPS ’ immediate catalyst today , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upgrade to Neutral – see below : ” J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew Boss boosted his rating on Gap to Neutral from Underweight , and raised his price target by $ 4 to $ 11 .
He notes that Gap stock ( ticker : GPS ) has tumbled some 70 % since October , and the upgrade is largely due to this fact , which has left the shares trading below other troubled retailers .
On an EV/Ebitda ( enterprise value to earnings before interest , taxes , depreciation and amortization ) basis , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” trough-multiple average around 0.43 times .
If Gap ’ s Old Navy brand could hit that level ( and its Athleta brand could outperform ) the shares wouldn ’ t need any contribution from Banana Republic or the flagship Gap brand to get to an equity value of $ 14 a share .
Old Navy has long been key to Gap ’ s success ( and the stock jumped after the cancelation of its spinoff ) .
The brand accounts for about half of Gap ’ s sales and around 80 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Of course , the current environment hasn ’ t been kind to apparel retailers , as many consumers pull back on all but essentials ( and don ’ t need many new clothes when leaving the house is frowned upon ) .
Yet within this framework , Old Navy looks better positioned than most , Boss opines , as it is squarely in the value category — and the brand performed well in 2009 when the U.S. began to exit the Great Recession .
Old Navy may further get a boost from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the fact that it does a brisk business in kids and baby items ( areas where consumers have less option to hold off on buying new clothes ) .
The shares have slipped more than 42 % since the start of the year , but were struggling even before the coronavirus hit .
The fact that the shares are responding so favorably to an upgrade that isn ’ t even a call to buy shows how starved Gap investors are for good news .
A $ 14 equity value isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will reach $ 14 — especially as Gap has moved away from plans to break out its faster-growing brands .
Yet investors likely welcome the theory that the shares have finally been oversold .
TLDR : GPS deserves to be trading in the $ 7-9 range .
Sell any rally .
Why target 7/17 ?
Just to be safe .
The stock has a high chance of disappointing after earnings .
Especially if we have a 2nd wave of corona and governor mandated retail closures this summer .
Disclaimer : This information is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Particular-Wedding
The GAP (GPS) reports this Thursday and I think it will be a disappointment. The GAP is a discount clothing retailer that operates large physical footprint stores across the USA and other countries.
I am looking at this primarily from a TA perspective:
Bearish arguments:
lower high formed on 5/29 – the stock has been stuck in a $7-9 channel since early April. It is attempting a breakout above 10 but I believe it will fail.

Stochs indicate overbought condition. CMF remains negative. Lower high formed in intraday trading on a big volume spike.

Intra-day PCR snapshot

Bullish arguments: Retail stocks are outperforming as more stores open and reports on traffic indicate at least some moderate activity with shoppers amid social distancing rules.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
More specifically the apparel sector has seen signs of life: ANF, UAA, RL, GES, etc. Analysts at some banks have been upgrading GPS.
BUT my retort is that if you look at the price action immediately after earnings for the retail stocks they have returned only lower highs and failed to maintain their momentum upwards. GPS’ immediate catalyst today, 6/1/20, is due to a JPM upgrade to Neutral – see below:
” J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew Boss boosted his rating on Gap to Neutral from Underweight, and raised his price target by $4 to $11. He notes that Gap stock (ticker: GPS) has tumbled some 70% since October, and the upgrade is largely due to this fact, which has left the shares trading below other troubled retailers.
On an EV/Ebitda (enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) basis, Boss pegs the current “distressed retail” trough-multiple average around 0.43 times. If Gap’s Old Navy brand could hit that level (and its Athleta brand could outperform) the shares wouldn’t need any contribution from Banana Republic or the flagship Gap brand to get to an equity value of $14 a share.
Old Navy has long been key to Gap’s success (and the stock jumped after the cancelation of its spinoff). The brand accounts for about half of Gap’s sales and around 80% of the company’s Ebit. Of course, the current environment hasn’t been kind to apparel retailers, as many consumers pull back on all but essentials (and don’t need many new clothes when leaving the house is frowned upon). Yet within this framework, Old Navy looks better positioned than most, Boss opines, as it is squarely in the value category — and the brand performed well in 2009 when the U.S. began to exit the Great Recession. Old Navy may further get a boost from the fact that it has many off-mall locations, and the fact that it does a brisk business in kids and baby items (areas where consumers have less option to hold off on buying new clothes).
The shares have slipped more than 42% since the start of the year, but were struggling even before the coronavirus hit. The fact that the shares are responding so favorably to an upgrade that isn’t even a call to buy shows how starved Gap investors are for good news. A $14 equity value isn’t the same as saying the stock will reach $14 — especially as Gap has moved away from plans to break out its faster-growing brands. Yet investors likely welcome the theory that the shares have finally been oversold.
Write to Teresa Rivas at [teresa.rivas@barrons.com](mailto:teresa.rivas@barrons.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires 06-01-20 1127ET “
TLDR: GPS deserves to be trading in the $7-9 range. Sell any rally. Why target 7/17? Just to be safe. The stock has a high chance of disappointing after earnings. Especially if we have a 2nd wave of corona and governor mandated retail closures this summer.
7/17 9p.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--“The President has made clear that what we are seeing on America’s streets is unacceptable. Violence

“The President has made clear that what we are seeing on America’s streets is unacceptable. Violence, looting, anarchy, lawlessness are not to be tolerated.”

`` The President has made clear that what we are seeing on America 's streets is unacceptable .
Violence , @ @ @ @ @ are not to be tolerated . ''
pic.twitter.com/i9mOwCEUCE

"The President has made clear that what we are seeing on America's streets is unacceptable. Violence, looting, anarchy, lawlessness are not to be tolerated." pic.twitter.com/i9mOwCEUCE
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 1, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Alleged Antifa agitator’s parents bring him to police in Pittburgh

BREAKING : Alleged Antifa agitator ’ s parents bring him to police in Pittburgh pic.twitter.com/0EFqt3lfEW

BREAKING: Alleged Antifa agitator’s parents bring him to police in Pittburgh pic.twitter.com/0EFqt3lfEW
— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) June 1, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Democrats Running Clandestine PSYOP To Overthrow Trump

This is a teaser video for an in depth report on IIA , or Interactive Internet Activities , psychological operations @ @ @ @ @ social media .
Originally designed for military use in foreign conflicts by cyber-security contractors , @ @ @ @ @ by the Democrat party here in the United States to destroy the Trump administration .

This is a teaser video for an in depth report on IIA, or Interactive Internet Activities, psychological operations (PSYOPS) ran on social media. Originally designed for military use in foreign conflicts by cyber-security contractors, it is now being deployed by the Democrat party here in the United States to destroy the Trump administration.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Former Black Lives Matter Ferguson Organizer, Chaziel Sunz Exposes Democrats, Antifa, BLM & More

In 2017 , Chaziel Sunz shined the light on who pays for Antifa , Black Lives Matter , what the @ @ @ @ @ Party using the groups .

In 2017, Chaziel Sunz shined the light on who pays for Antifa, Black Lives Matter, what the plan is of the Democratic Party using the groups.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--The U.S. economy’s recovery is likely to drag on through the end of next year, with the labor market

The government shutdown spotlights a bigger issue : 78 % of US workers live paycheck to paycheck

The U.S. economy’s recovery is likely to drag on through the end of next year, with the labor market experiencing its sharpest deterioration since the 1930s, the Congressional Budget Office says t.co/x4ahFIxV0R — Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) June 1, 2020
The wart on today's ISM is the lack of improvement in New Orders vs Inventories Spread which leads the Headline by 3 months (highest lag correlation). Most important is the gap between Orders-Inventories and S&P YOY% (correlation 40%) is the most bearish on record. pic.twitter.com/d9mdN4fLA8 — Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) June 1, 2020
ICYMI! The ISM Manufacturing rose in May, but at 43.1 remains pretty subdued, not pointing to a V-shaped recovery. pic.twitter.com/Y07swWTJRb — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) June 1, 2020
The government shutdown spotlights a bigger issue: 78% of US workers live paycheck to paycheck
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.@elerianm calling for the Fed to stop. "By continuously intervening in market pricing or taking policy rates negative, or both, the Fed would risk creating not just additional distortions but also “zombie markets”.t.co/yPcdNdOyxI — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) June 1, 2020
U.S. ATLANTA FED GDPNOW Q2: -52.8% — lemasabachthani (@lemasabachthani) June 1, 2020
US Congressional Budget Office: Economy Could Take 10 Years To Catch Up After Coronavirus – CNBC — LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) June 1, 2020
STARBUCKS LIMITED OPERATIONS LEADS TO HOUR REDUCTIONS — COMPANY STARBUCKS EXPECTS LOWER SALES AT U.S. STORES UNTIL AT LEAST THE FALL EMPLOYEES WILL HAVE A WEEK TO DECIDE WHETHER TO TAKE REDUCED HOURS OR UNPAID LEAVE$SBUX — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) June 1, 2020
Record-High Cuts to S&P 500 EPS Estimates for CY 2020 To Date t.co/0hHEbPYrkd via @FactSet — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) June 1, 2020
A fresh forecast of U.S. economic outlook from Steven Koptis, head of Princeton Energy Advisors via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/4xqsNRat1H — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) June 1, 2020
China’s recovery showing signs of stalling


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Remember, the Markets Rallied Right Before the March Meltdown As Well

Now is the time to be extra careful .
The US has erupted in riots/ civil unrest .
The economic and cultural impacts of these events will be extreme .
History has shown us that riots can have long-lasting , highly negative effects on local economies for years after the riots have ended .
Despite all of this horrific news , the markets are up somewhat this morning .
And that is a bad sign .
It reminds me of what the markets were doing in late February : while the COVID-19 pandemic/ economic shut down was just around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( red square in the chart below ) .
Fast forward to today , and the week before a large portion of the economy literally went up in flames , the markets are rallying once again .
Let ’ s be clear… the US economy was already in a depression before the riots started .
The riots have made things exponentially worse .
The potential fallout from this is tremendous .
And we could indeed see another crash hit .
Again , now is the time to be careful , with yourself , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In light of this , we ’ ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public .
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “ Crash insurance ” on your portfolio ( these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008 ) .
To pick up your copy of this report , FREE , swing by :

Now is the time to be extra careful.
The US has erupted in riots/ civil unrest. The economic and cultural impacts of these events will be extreme. History has shown us that riots can have long-lasting, highly negative effects on local economies for years after the riots have ended.
Despite all of this horrific news, the markets are up somewhat this morning. And that is a bad sign. It reminds me of what the markets were doing in late February: while the COVID-19 pandemic/ economic shut down was just around the corner, the markets were actually rallying (red square in the chart below).
Then this happened.
Fast forward to today, and the week before a large portion of the economy literally went up in flames, the markets are rallying once again.
Let’s be clear… the US economy was already in a depression before the riots started. The riots have made things exponentially worse. The potential fallout from this is tremendous. And we could indeed see another crash hit.
Again, now is the time to be careful, with yourself, your loved ones and your investments.
In light of this, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--The Dollar Milkshake Theory: A Global Currency Crisis – Robert Kiyosaki and Nick Santiago

Central banks have created a “ milkshake ” of different currencies and pushed liquidity into the global economy .
As of 2016 , the US started raising rates while the rest of the world was “ mixing ” the milkshake .
As a result , raising rates acts as a straw that sucks the capital into the United States .
So what is the outlook in the post-coronavirus economy ?
Brent Johnson , CEO of Santiago Capital , explains the “ Dollar Milkshake Theory , ” what impact the strong dollar will have on gold and Bitcoin , and why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In addition , he explains that a strong dollar is good for the U.S. , however , the global economy is not meant to support a strong dollar and could mean we will see a “ reset ” of currency .
Listen as hosts Robert and Kim Kiyosaki and guest Brent Johnson discuss what assets will perform in 2020 and how you can prepare for the future .
Nicholas Santiago started trading in 1991 .
In 1997 , he became a licensed Series 7 and 63 registered representative .
He successfully managed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ client group .
Nick is an expert in Technical Analysis .
He is a highly regarded and accomplished technician in the studies of Elliot Wave , Gann Theory , Dow Theory and Cycle Theory .
After applying his knowledge to his client base and meeting his personal monetary goals , he decided it was time to begin teaching those interested in learning his trading and investing methodology .
In 2007 , he partnered with Gareth Soloway to form InTheMoneyStocks.com and realize his dream of educating others about the truth of the markets .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ InTheMoneyStocks and enlightens thousands of members , along with providing consulting services to hedge funds and institutions .
Robert Kiyosaki is best known as the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad , the # 1 personal finance book of all time .
His book titles hold four of the top ten spots on Nielsen Bookscan List ’ s Life-to-Date Sales from 2001-2008 alone .
Robert is an educational Entrepreneur and real estate tycoon , co-creator of the CASHFLOW® board game , founder of the financial education-based Rich Dad Company and author of New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Conspiracy of the Rich , and Unfair Advantage : The Power of Financial Education .
Robert Kiyosaki is among the first to have warned Americans of an impending collapse in the US real estate market , famously prophesizing , “ Your home is not an investment , ” years before the Panic of 2008 .
His latest book is Who Stole My Pension ?
How You Can Stop the Looting .

Rich Dad Radio Show, Released on 6/1/20
Central banks have created a “milkshake” of different currencies and pushed liquidity into the global economy. As of 2016, the US started raising rates while the rest of the world was “mixing” the milkshake. As a result, raising rates acts as a straw that sucks the capital into the United States.
So what is the outlook in the post-coronavirus economy? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, explains the “Dollar Milkshake Theory,” what impact the strong dollar will have on gold and Bitcoin, and why comparisons of currency strength are all relative. In addition, he explains that a strong dollar is good for the U.S., however, the global economy is not meant to support a strong dollar and could mean we will see a “reset” of currency.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Listen as hosts Robert and Kim Kiyosaki and guest Brent Johnson discuss what assets will perform in 2020 and how you can prepare for the future.
Nicholas Santiago started trading in 1991. In 1997, he became a licensed Series 7 and 63 registered representative. He successfully managed money for a large, affluent private client group. Nick is an expert in Technical Analysis. He is a highly regarded and accomplished technician in the studies of Elliot Wave, Gann Theory, Dow Theory and Cycle Theory. After applying his knowledge to his client base and meeting his personal monetary goals, he decided it was time to begin teaching those interested in learning his trading and investing methodology. In 2007, he partnered with Gareth Soloway to form InTheMoneyStocks.com and realize his dream of educating others about the truth of the markets. He now co-heads the education department at InTheMoneyStocks and enlightens thousands of members, along with providing consulting services to hedge funds and institutions.
Robert Kiyosaki is best known as the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, the #1 personal finance book of all time. His book titles hold four of the top ten spots on Nielsen Bookscan List’s Life-to-Date Sales from 2001-2008 alone. Robert is an educational Entrepreneur and real estate tycoon, co-creator of the CASHFLOW® board game, founder of the financial education-based Rich Dad Company and author of New York Times Bestsellers: Rich Dad’s Conspiracy of the Rich, and Unfair Advantage: The Power of Financial Education. Robert Kiyosaki is among the first to have warned Americans of an impending collapse in the US real estate market, famously prophesizing, “Your home is not an investment,” years before the Panic of 2008. His latest book is Who Stole My Pension? How You Can Stop the Looting.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Polk County Florida Sheriff…I like this guy!

“ The people in Polk County like guns , they have guns , I encourage them to own guns… And @ @ @ @ @ into their homes to steal , to set fires , I ’ m highly recommending @ @ @ @ @ of the house with their guns .
”

by DCG
Polk County Florida Sheriff Grady Judge speaking about the riots/protests:
“The people in Polk County like guns, they have guns, I encourage them to own guns… And if you try to break into their homes to steal, to set fires, I’m highly recommending they blow you back out of the house with their guns.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read the story here.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Youtuber attempts to get protesters to flip over truck

Youtube Livestreamer who goes by the name “ carl ii ” from New York attempts to get a group of @ @ @ @ @ but it backfires .
He has now privatized all his social media accounts and gone @ @ @

Youtube Livestreamer who goes by the name “carl ii” from New York attempts to get a group of protesters to flip a truck but it backfires. He has now privatized all his social media accounts and gone into hiding.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Marc Faber: Do You Wish To Live Like A Laissez-Faire Capitalist Or Be Ruled By Interventionists?

What we need to remember about the Krugman view is that in economics there are two completely different doctrines , which find little , or no common ground at all .
One main economic doctrine is that the government should stay out of the economy as much as possible ( laissez-faire capitalism ) .
In contrast to Laissez-Fair Capitalism the Interventionists or Stagnationists believe that the economy needs to be continuously managed by the government in order to achieve optimal economic performance , and to avoid slumps activist stabilization and economic intervention policies need to be applied .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ludwig von Mises : “ Every step which leads from capitalism toward planning is necessarily a step nearer to absolutism and dictatorship.
” Furthermore as Friedrich Hayek said : “ Once politics become a tug-of-war for shares in the income pie , decent government is impossible ” .
John C. Williams , president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explained that the FED was seriously considering “ Yield Curve Control , ” which implies the control of long-term interest rates through FED interventions or rather FED manipulations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yield Curve would entail that the FED would be prepared to stand ready to purchase any quantity of long-term Treasuries .
Given that the total US government debt is over $ 25 trillion the FED would be rather busy in future trying to support the Treasury market .
In theory , the FED would be in a position to buy up all outstanding Treasuries .
[ In theory , the FED could also buy up the entire stock market with the money Jerome Powell prints electronically . ]
But it should be clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FED embarks on this path , we will no longer have free markets and that we would have taken a leap towards the state planning economy .
Furthermore , foreign holders of US assets would likely run for the door , which could bring about a US dollar collapse .
Needless to say , faced with a situation of severe US dollar weakness , the US could impose strict foreign exchange controls , which would be aimed at preventing foreign money to leave the US .
However , the imposition of such draconian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US dollar World ’ s Reserve Currency status would have ended for good .
I am enclosing a report by my Argentinian friend Eduardo Elsztain ( eelsztain @ irsa.com.ar ) .
He writes : “ let us share our takeaways as a 3rd generation of Argentine businessmen .
What our experience tells us is that when the national governments need to finance deficits , they will not hesitate to print as much money as possible to cover the short term needs , especially if the effect of that printing emission is generating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) as is the case today in developed countries .
For this reason , we have no doubts that as result of the current crisis , countries around the world will keep running record fiscal deficits while the FED and other central banks will keep buying national and corporate bonds along with printing money as never before in modern history.
” I am also enclosing a report by my friends Stephen S. Roach and Weijian Shan entitled The Fable of the Chinese Whistleblower .
They write : “ Public opinion in the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic squarely on China .
After all , that ’ s where the virus started .
And President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have fanned the flames by accusing China of covering up the outbreak and knowingly allowing the novel coronavirus to spread .
But their supposed smoking gun , the tragic fate of the heroic whistleblower , Li Wenliang , fires only blanks.
” Maybe some of my readers or some of their friends have suffered badly under the unreasonable measures taken by the bureaucracy to contain the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thomas Mann : “ To be grateful for all life ’ s blessings .
.
.
is the best condition for a happy life .
A joke , a good meal , a fine spring day , a work of art , a human personality , a voice , a glance—but this is not all .
For there is another kind of gratitude .
.
.the feeling that makes us thankful for suffering , for the hard and heavy things of life , for the deepening of our natures which perhaps only suffering @ @ @ @

via gloomboomdoom
What we need to remember about the Krugman view is that in economics there are two completely different doctrines, which find little, or no common ground at all. One main economic doctrine is that the government should stay out of the economy as much as possible (laissez-faire capitalism).
In contrast to Laissez-Fair Capitalism the Interventionists or Stagnationists believe that the economy needs to be continuously managed by the government in order to achieve optimal economic performance, and to avoid slumps activist stabilization and economic intervention policies need to be applied.
However, don’t forget the words of Ludwig von Mises: “Every step which leads from capitalism toward planning is necessarily a step nearer to absolutism and dictatorship.”
Furthermore as Friedrich Hayek said: “Once politics become a tug-of-war for shares in the income pie, decent government is impossible”.
John C. Williams, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explained that the FED was seriously considering “Yield Curve Control,” which implies the control of long-term interest rates through FED interventions or rather FED manipulations of the bond market.
Controlling the Yield Curve would entail that the FED would be prepared to stand ready to purchase any quantity of long-term Treasuries. Given that the total US government debt is over $25 trillion the FED would be rather busy in future trying to support the Treasury market. In theory, the FED would be in a position to buy up all outstanding Treasuries. [In theory, the FED could also buy up the entire stock market with the money Jerome Powell prints electronically.] But it should be clear to all my readers that if the FED embarks on this path, we will no longer have free markets and that we would have taken a leap towards the state planning economy.
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Furthermore, foreign holders of US assets would likely run for the door, which could bring about a US dollar collapse. Needless to say, faced with a situation of severe US dollar weakness, the US could impose strict foreign exchange controls, which would be aimed at preventing foreign money to leave the US. However, the imposition of such draconian measure would mean that the era of the US dollar World’s Reserve Currency status would have ended for good.
I am enclosing a report by my Argentinian friend Eduardo Elsztain (eelsztain@irsa.com.ar). He writes: “let us share our takeaways as a 3rd generation of Argentine businessmen. What our experience tells us is that when the national governments need to finance deficits, they will not hesitate to print as much money as possible to cover the short term needs, especially if the effect of that printing emission is generating no impact (i.e. no inflation) as is the case today in developed countries. For this reason, we have no doubts that as result of the current crisis, countries around the world will keep running record fiscal deficits while the FED and other central banks will keep buying national and corporate bonds along with printing money as never before in modern history.”
I am also enclosing a report by my friends Stephen S. Roach and Weijian Shan entitled The Fable of the Chinese Whistleblower.
They write: “Public opinion in the United States pins the blame for the COVID-19 pandemic squarely on China. After all, that’s where the virus started. And President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have fanned the flames by accusing China of covering up the outbreak and knowingly allowing the novel coronavirus to spread. But their supposed smoking gun, the tragic fate of the heroic whistleblower, Li Wenliang, fires only blanks.”
Maybe some of my readers or some of their friends have suffered badly under the unreasonable measures taken by the bureaucracy to contain the virus.
But, remember the words of Thomas Mann:
“To be grateful for all life’s blessings. . . is the best condition for a happy life. A joke, a good meal, a fine spring day, a work of art, a human personality, a voice, a glance—but this is not all. For there is another kind of gratitude. . .the feeling that makes us thankful for suffering, for the hard and heavy things of life, for the deepening of our natures which perhaps only suffering can bring.”
With kind regards
Yours sincerely
Marc Faber


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--George Floyd’s murder was exactly what the MSM needed to get out of the COVID corner they painted th

George Floyd’s murder was exactly what the MSM needed to get out of the COVID corner they painted themselves into

The writing was on the wall , people had been realizing the things they were told weren ’ t accurate and had begun questioning the MSM ’ s narrative on the germ .
The statistics , as predicted by the Oxford University model in favor of the Imperial College model were beginning to show the truth…and that was a huge problem .
The stress the MSM put this country under during the past few months was incredible .
They had people so afraid of dying that citizens were turning in their own neighbors for going out or having gatherings .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ fucking bomb and were beginning to realize they ’ d be in a very bad position if they continued getting caught fabricating news stories , hiring IG models to pretend to be crying nurses , telling people the hospitals were overflowing etc .
They had also succeeded in pitting the citizens of this country against each other .
Eventually the truth would be widely exposed , either by them admitting they had it wrong or the people inevitably realizing they ’ d been bamboozled .
That bomb would explode and it would impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , footage of a white police officer murdering a black man began circulating the internet .
This was the distraction they ’ d been waiting for and they jumped all over it .
Within days , major cities would be burning and the White House would go dark .
All the while the MSM seemingly forgot all about the new Black Death supposedly coming to kill everyone .
All that stress , all that frustration and anger about the “ New Normal ” coupled with the divide amongst the citizens finally blew up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which it was intended .
Instead , it blew up on the country in which the citizens resided… .
And the MSM couldn ’ t be more relieved .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by saltyishballs
The writing was on the wall, people had been realizing the things they were told weren’t accurate and had begun questioning the MSM’s narrative on the germ.
The statistics, as predicted by the Oxford University model in favor of the Imperial College model were beginning to show the truth…and that was a huge problem.
The stress the MSM put this country under during the past few months was incredible. They had people so afraid of dying that citizens were turning in their own neighbors for going out or having gatherings. They had ignited the fuse to a fucking bomb and were beginning to realize they’d be in a very bad position if they continued getting caught fabricating news stories, hiring IG models to pretend to be crying nurses, telling people the hospitals were overflowing etc. They had also succeeded in pitting the citizens of this country against each other.
Eventually the truth would be widely exposed, either by them admitting they had it wrong or the people inevitably realizing they’d been bamboozled. That bomb would explode and it would impact these news outlets, greatly.
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Then, footage of a white police officer murdering a black man began circulating the internet. This was the distraction they’d been waiting for and they jumped all over it. Within days, major cities would be burning and the White House would go dark. All the while the MSM seemingly forgot all about the new Black Death supposedly coming to kill everyone.
All that stress, all that frustration and anger about the “New Normal” coupled with the divide amongst the citizens finally blew up, but not at the MSM for which it was intended. Instead, it blew up on the country in which the citizens resided….
And the MSM couldn’t be more relieved.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--COVID-19 and the riots could possibly be the greatest attempt at division among the common people in

COVID-19 and the riots could possibly be the greatest attempt at division among the common people induced by media disinformation.

From what I see , the common people are clearly being coerced into fighting a useless fight against each other because in the end ; the elite will still have the power and the common people will remain powerless .
First off , they used COVID-19 to create tension through the differing opinions .
Through all countries .
With one side believing it isn ’ t a big deal and the other side believing we should be in lockdown until it ’ s completely safe .
they used the virus to make each side believe one side was wrong and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so much division already and was used as fuel by the elite to keep the fire of hate burning for later events .
When the elite realized it worked , they used George Floyd ’ s murder to divide us even more .
Race is very easy to use as a scapegoat for problems and has been used as one since the elite have realized how much it can create division .
Building a white vs POC mentality was easy for them to create because of the large socioeconomic gap that POC and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s endless covering of countless cases of POC teenagers murdered by white cops who seem to always get away , it was seen by the elite as an easy opportunity to create more division .
It worked flawlessly because people quickly took opinions force fed to them by social media .
They took sides instead of critically thinking .
Since then , they have utilized race as a weapon to divide us all .
Then day after day , we ’ ve seen the media sensationalize the two sides ; “ cops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are completely wrong , hypnotized , and blind to the real purpose of all of this ; to take the power completely out of the people ’ s hands The cops believe they are doing good by carrying out unjust laws .
The rioters believe they are carrying out justice through voting , signing petitions and protests .
Both fail to realize they are mere pawns , coerced into fighting so that they won ’ t fight the real fight , which is taking the power of out the elites hands and bringing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are brainwashed as they fight each other and have them both thinking they can make a difference but fail to realize that after all this turmoil and hate ; only they will hurt through the economy and physical violence .
They will have to depend on the elite more and the power will only consolidate and remain with the elite .
The power will always be out of the people ’ s hands if we don ’ t fight the real fight .
They make us choose sides instead of letting us think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or wrong because it ’ s easier to divide us that way .
They use the main scapegoats such as Trump , Xi Jinping , Obama or Putin to take away the blame from the crooked system built by the elite .
They use celebrities and politicians , people who don ’ t really make decisions and use them as targets so we aren ’ t focused on the real things that matter like misinformation and misallocation of necessities .
After the French Revolution and Boston Tea Party , what do you think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The rich were still rich ( you can even say they ’ ve gotten rich after ) and only the poor suffered .
the power of the elite was consolidated and the common people felt the effects .
This is an age of misinformation and division .
An age where you must take a side before you critically think .
An age where being on the right side matters more than having a safer and more peaceful world .
I hope soon people will become sick of the endless wars and media hypnotism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help each other learn the truth without the ego and realize we have one common enemy ; and it isn ’ t each other .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by 702Nav
From what I see, the common people are clearly being coerced into fighting a useless fight against each other because in the end; the elite will still have the power and the common people will remain powerless.
First off, they used COVID-19 to create tension through the differing opinions. Through all countries. With one side believing it isn’t a big deal and the other side believing we should be in lockdown until it’s completely safe. they used the virus to make each side believe one side was wrong and inconsiderate of the other
The virus caused so much division already and was used as fuel by the elite to keep the fire of hate burning for later events.
When the elite realized it worked, they used George Floyd’s murder to divide us even more.
Race is very easy to use as a scapegoat for problems and has been used as one since the elite have realized how much it can create division. Building a white vs POC mentality was easy for them to create because of the large socioeconomic gap that POC and white people have. Along with media’s endless covering of countless cases of POC teenagers murdered by white cops who seem to always get away, it was seen by the elite as an easy opportunity to create more division. It worked flawlessly because people quickly took opinions force fed to them by social media. They took sides instead of critically thinking. Since then, they have utilized race as a weapon to divide us all.
Then day after day, we’ve seen the media sensationalize the two sides; “cops” vs “protestors” Both sides are completely wrong, hypnotized, and blind to the real purpose of all of this; to take the power completely out of the people’s hands
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The cops believe they are doing good by carrying out unjust laws. The rioters believe they are carrying out justice through voting, signing petitions and protests. Both fail to realize they are mere pawns, coerced into fighting so that they won’t fight the real fight, which is taking the power of out the elites hands and bringing it to the people.
both sides are brainwashed as they fight each other and have them both thinking they can make a difference but fail to realize that after all this turmoil and hate; only they will hurt through the economy and physical violence. They will have to depend on the elite more and the power will only consolidate and remain with the elite. The power will always be out of the people’s hands if we don’t fight the real fight.
They make us choose sides instead of letting us think for ourselves of what’s right or wrong because it’s easier to divide us that way. They use the main scapegoats such as Trump, Xi Jinping, Obama or Putin to take away the blame from the crooked system built by the elite. They use celebrities and politicians, people who don’t really make decisions and use them as targets so we aren’t focused on the real things that matter like misinformation and misallocation of necessities.
After the French Revolution and Boston Tea Party, what do you think happened? You know nothing changed. The rich were still rich (you can even say they’ve gotten rich after) and only the poor suffered. the power of the elite was consolidated and the common people felt the effects.
This is an age of misinformation and division. An age where you must take a side before you critically think. An age where being on the right side matters more than having a safer and more peaceful world.
I hope soon people will become sick of the endless wars and media hypnotism. I hope soon we all can help each other learn the truth without the ego and realize we have one common enemy; and it isn’t each other.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--These Riots Are Totally Insane!

These Riots Are Totally Insane!

You can thank the federal student loan for creating a generation who has been taught the religion of “ resistance @ @ @ @ @ paid for your cities and businesses to burn .

You can thank the federal student loan for creating a generation who has been taught the religion of “resistance”.
Your tax dollars paid for your cities and businesses to burn.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Mr. Time


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--So, Are These COPS Vandalizing That Building?

What the heck is up ?

What the heck is up?
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Who all is in on this❓ This video tells a lot‼ [FF] pic.twitter.com/dJa4zSdudy — myklmnopQ (@michael08930353) June 1, 2020
SS


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-02--Head of Canada’s Mortgage & Housing Agency Warns Home Buyers to Question Motives of Those Saying Pri

Head of Canada’s Mortgage & Housing Agency Warns Home Buyers to Question Motives of Those Saying Prices Will Rise

“ They ’ re whistling past the graveyard and offering no analysis.
” The head of Canada ’ s national housing agency rang off yet another warning to homebuyers .
Evan Siddall , the head of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation ( CMHC ) , warned people to question the motives of anyone that says home prices will rise in the near-term .
He does so before rattling off a list of economic pressures against the market .
The tweet is self-explanatory to his primary demographic of banking and finance experts .
However , it ’ s less so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so let ’ s unpack it with some data points .
And he said , when he tweeted the link for the CMHC report : Canada ’ s economy has been slowing in growth for a few quarters , even before the pandemic .
It got much worse after the economic lockdown .
Stat Can reported GDP fell 2.11 % in Q1 2020 , when compared to the previous quarter .
Pre-pandemic growth in Q4 2019 also wasn ’ t very impressive though , coming in at the weakest level since the 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some noise in Q2 2019 , GDP growth has been trending lower since the back half of 2017 .
This view gets even worse if you ’ re looking at the issue on a per capita basis .
Oil began trading at a negative price , something a few systems didn ’ t even believe was possible .
That is , people actually paid people to haul the value of their oil contracts away .
It was a newsworthy , but relatively small blip , but the value of crude and energy products @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stat Can ’ s index for April fell 21.96 % from the previous month .
That puts the value 44.79 % lower than the same month last year .
Prices in this segment peaked in June 2008 , and have been seeing lower and lower peaks ever since .
Canadians use various forms of income support , but nothing highlights issues like CERB ( Canada Emergency Response Benefit ) .
The temporary emergency income support rolled out due to the pandemic had 6.7 million applicants by mid-April .
At the end of May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unique applicants .
Considering Canada ’ s labour force is just 18.6 million , that ’ s 44.5 % of them requesting emergency aid .
Even if unemployment is still in the low teens , this implies a lot more people aren ’ t working – and quite possibly won ’ t have work to go back to .
“ A Greater % Of Mortgages Not Being Paid Than We ’ ve Seen Since The Great Depression.
” Canadians are requesting relief from their mortgage payments at a breakneck speed .
The CMHC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are currently on payment deferral , and they expect this rate to rise to 20 % by September .
More generally , the CBA estimates the big Canadian banks had 500,000 requests looking for mortgage payment deferral in the beginning of April .
By the end of May , the handful of large banks had approved 721,000 mortgage payment deferrals .
This represents about 15 % of all mortgages on their books , and that number is still climbing .
Most analysis I ’ ve come across saying prices will climb , now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people .
They ’ ve chosen to say those impacted by recent employment events , just weren ’ t in the market for a home .
That narrative becomes increasingly harder to buy , considering we ’ re now at the point where almost half of the population has demonstrated being impacted .
Even if the households impacted are all low income ( which they aren ’ t ) , it ’ s worth remembering that one person ’ s spending is another ’ s income .
By Stephen Punwasi , Better Dwelling

“They’re whistling past the graveyard and offering no analysis.”
By Stephen Punwasi, Better Dwelling:
The head of Canada’s national housing agency rang off yet another warning to homebuyers. Evan Siddall, the head of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), warned people to question the motives of anyone that says home prices will rise in the near-term.
He does so before rattling off a list of economic pressures against the market. The tweet is self-explanatory to his primary demographic of banking and finance experts. However, it’s less so to the average millennial and homebuyer – so let’s unpack it with some data points.
Evan Siddall tweeted:
“Please question the motivation of anyone who wants you to believe prices will go up (yes, up) with our economy in slow motion, oil being given away, millions of Canadians on income support and a greater % of mortgages not being paid than we’ve seen since the Great Depression.”
And he said, when he tweeted the link for the CMHC report:
“Here’s more on our house price outlook. Some vocal real estate advisors have labelled us “panic-inducing and irresponsible,’ saying essentially that house prices don’t go down. They’re whistling past the graveyard and offering no analysis. Here’s ours. You decide.”
“With Our Economy In Slow Motion”
Canada’s economy has been slowing in growth for a few quarters, even before the pandemic. It got much worse after the economic lockdown. Stat Can reported GDP fell 2.11% in Q1 2020, when compared to the previous quarter. Pre-pandemic growth in Q4 2019 also wasn’t very impressive though, coming in at the weakest level since the 2015 oil crash. With the exception of some noise in Q2 2019, GDP growth has been trending lower since the back half of 2017. This view gets even worse if you’re looking at the issue on a per capita basis.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Oil Being Given Away”
Oil began trading at a negative price, something a few systems didn’t even believe was possible. That is, people actually paid people to haul the value of their oil contracts away. It was a newsworthy, but relatively small blip, but the value of crude and energy products has been slipping for a while. Stat Can’s index for April fell 21.96% from the previous month. That puts the value 44.79% lower than the same month last year. Prices in this segment peaked in June 2008, and have been seeing lower and lower peaks ever since.
“Millions Of Canadians On Income Support”
Canadians use various forms of income support, but nothing highlights issues like CERB (Canada Emergency Response Benefit). The temporary emergency income support rolled out due to the pandemic had 6.7 million applicants by mid-April. At the end of May, the Canadian government estimates 8.29 million unique applicants. Considering Canada’s labour force is just 18.6 million, that’s 44.5% of them requesting emergency aid. Even if unemployment is still in the low teens, this implies a lot more people aren’t working – and quite possibly won’t have work to go back to.
“A Greater % Of Mortgages Not Being Paid Than We’ve Seen Since The Great Depression.”
Canadians are requesting relief from their mortgage payments at a breakneck speed. The CMHC itself estimates 12% of insured mortgages are currently on payment deferral, and they expect this rate to rise to 20% by September. More generally, the CBA estimates the big Canadian banks had 500,000 requests looking for mortgage payment deferral in the beginning of April. By the end of May, the handful of large banks had approved 721,000 mortgage payment deferrals. This represents about 15% of all mortgages on their books, and that number is still climbing.
Most analysis I’ve come across saying prices will climb, now depend on excluding a large segment of people. They’ve chosen to say those impacted by recent employment events, just weren’t in the market for a home. That narrative becomes increasingly harder to buy, considering we’re now at the point where almost half of the population has demonstrated being impacted. Even if the households impacted are all low income (which they aren’t), it’s worth remembering that one person’s spending is another’s income. By Stephen Punwasi, Better Dwelling