investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--How to profit off Global Warming: HVAC Market Research with Due Dilligence on 5 Air-Conditioner bran

How to profit off Global Warming: HVAC Market Research with Due Dilligence on 5 Air-Conditioner brands.

With the change and progressing to extremer climates , global warming is coming our way .
It has been shown world governments are incapable of properly taking action against this threat .
Since it seems like global warming won ’ t be stopped , we will have to start adapting to the new extreme climates .
One way of ensuring a comfortable living/working space in this grim future is by making use of HVAC ( Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning ) .
And that ’ s what got me thinking .
My family has been hell bent on NOT getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever more frequently reaching +40c with a humidity of +70 % ( Hup Holland Hup ) it ’ s becoming unbearable .
Sleepless nights , overheated pets , fainting , old people dying and just losing your will to live .
These are all issues more people around the world are starting to face .
Every place on earth is getting more extreme .
Every place on earth is getting more need for Climate control .
And every company is looking to profit of that !
This is why my next play is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to invest in the best companies .
Living in The Netherlands I personally don ’ t know the best brands , luckily , I ’ ve got great internet .
So , after spitting through some review sites these are the 5 public companies that came out best when looking for “ Best HVAC/Air-conditioning companies/brands ” .
( Not ranked ) Before we continue to further analyze the companies , we first need to understand the HVAC market .
• The HVAC business has been valued at $ 91.30B in 2020 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2024 and $ 367B by 2030 .
That ’ s a Compounded Annual Growth Rate ( CAGR ) of +/-15 % .
• The most popular countries for Air Conditioning ( AC ) per household are : Japan 91 % , USA 90 % , Korea 86 % , Saudi Arabia 53 % , China 60 % .
• Global stock of AC is expected to grow to 5.6B by 2050 , up from 1.6B in 2018 .
( This is 1 AC sold every second for the next 30 years ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ global households own an AC .
• 8 % of the 2.8B people living in the hottest parts of the world own an AC ( Brazil , Indonesia , India , African countries ) .
• AC demand is increasing every year going from 97,60M in 2012 , up 111M in 2018 .
As can been seen in the above statements the HVAC business is very well integrated in some large countries .
But the most exciting prospects are those of the developing countries .
In Mexico , Brazil , Indonesia , South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16 % , 9 % , 6 % and 5 % respectively of the households have AC .
This is a MASSIVE market just waiting to be exploited .
– The Indian AC market stood at $ 4,3B in 2017 and is expected to surpass 11B by 2023 , that ’ s a CAGR of over 17 % .
This rising growth is led by rising infrastructure development , growing demand for housing and the constantly rising temperatures and consumers purchasing power .
– The Middle Eastern and African market is expected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019-2024 .
– The Indonesian market is currently experiencing a 2 % CAGR in AC demand over 2012 till 2018 .
– The US is expected to have a CAGR of 3.1 % from 2020 to 2030 .
– Europe is expected to have a CAGR of 6 % from 2019 to 2025 .
– The global HVAC market is expected to grow with a CAGR of 5.5 % from 2018 till 2024 .
This was actually really really difficult to find free sources on and I can ’ t really make a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the numbers : – HVAC Used by construction firms in USA : Carrier 29 % , Lennox 17,3 % , Daikin 8,2 % , Trane7,3 % , LG 1,8 % Johnson 1,8 % .
My conclusion from this and other information found online is that globally Daikin is the biggest followed by Carrier , Johnson , Trane , LG and Lennox .
I accounted for all known acquisitions since 2013 in the market share .
An introduction to the Companies Carrier products and related services include HVAC and refrigeration systems , building @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hazard suppression systems and equipment , security monitoring and rapid response systems , provided to a diversified international customer base principally in the industrial , commercial and residential property and commercial transportation sectors .
– 85 % of sales are in the USA or Europe , they are however planning to expand globally .
– Since April 2020 carrier has split off from Raytheon Technologies , allowing them to focus fully on the HVACR market .
– Carrier is planning on cutting 600million in costs by 2022 ( 4 % of current COGS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ BlueEdge ” platform , providing aftermarket service to customers and minimizing machinery downtime & costs .
The platform will offer 3 different plans of service to customers .
Currently 82 % of all Carrier ’ s revenue comes from products , this is a clear move to increase its services revenue .
– As stated above , Carrier is planning to move more towards ( digital ) services .
– Well established brand within USA and Europe .
– # 1 HVAC brand for 10 consecutive years according to Builder Magazine – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competitors ( Johnson Controls , Daikin ) – No concrete plans for taking over the Asian market .
– Since February 2020 Trane has split from Ingersoll Rand allowing it to fully focus on its HVAC business .
– Known as reliable , efficient and silent .
– Major investments in reducing carbon emissions for its systems .
– Opportunity for expanding to Asia and the Middle East .
– Reduced product emissions by more than 50 % – No concrete plans on expansion in the Asian/Middle Eastern market .
DAIKIN INDUSTRIES , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and commercial use .
The Company also operates chemical , oil hydraulics , defense system , and electronics businesses .
– Daikin creates Semiconductor-etching products .
Making them well positioned for the “ new ” tech boom .
With the sales of chemicals almost increasing 10 % YoY .
– Daikin provides warheads for the Japanese military .
– Leader of the Indian AC market , creating products that can withstand the extreme conditions in the country .
Being able to operate at temperatures as high as 54c , creating AC ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acid .
and also , being able to be dropped from 1m height , to withstand the rough roads .
– Grew its profit in FY2020 while all others decreased in revenue .
– Has a clear plan to expand it ’ s influence in emerging markets such as India and the Middle East .
– Creates the full supply line for HVAC products , from refrigerants to AC-units .
– Does not have trailer refrigeration .
Lennox International Inc. provides climate control solutions .
The Company designs , manufactures , and markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and refrigeration equipment .
Lennox markets its products worldwide .
– Currently has the most efficient split system .
– Launching the Better Air initiative , focused on increasing indoor air quality , a Covid play .
– No concrete plans for expanding into emerging markets .
– Not known for the best reliability .
Johnson Controls International plc operates as a diversified technology and multi industrial company worldwide .
The company operates through Building Solutions North America , Building Solutions EMEA/LA , Building Solutions EMEA/LA , and Global Products segments .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and services heating , ventilating , and air conditioning systems , controls systems , integrated electronic security systems , and integrated fire detection and suppression systems for commercial , industrial , retail , small business , institutional , and governmental customers – Launch of its open blue system .
Giving customers total control over their building , temperatures , facial recognition ventilation , security , contact tracing and more all in the palm of your hand .
( Seriously check the videos , really impressive ) .
This is a clear Covid play @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of York and a joint venture with Hitachi .
– Launch of it ’ s OpenBlue system .
A digital platform to connect every part of your building .
– Using Covid to their advantage in launching products and services .
– Well aware of the need to expand in China/Asia – Build a state of the art headquarters in China .
– Many negative reviews on its Hitachi brand First of all , I should start with saying that Lennox really shouldn ’ t have been included , they are on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies .
Also , Johnson had some fuckery going on in all their 10k ’ s so these numbers might not add up , let me know if you found something .
Looking at the company ’ s financials and numbers it ’ s a tough decision to make , all companies a pretty close to each other .
There are however some things that stand out : – Carrier has a significantly higher NPM then the competitors .
– Lennox might be in financial trouble .
– Daikin spends the most on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I see this as a big plus .
– Johnson their revenue is growing the fastest on a 5Y CAGR .
– Johnson their P/E is much higher than the competition .
– Johnson their Dividend is the higher % wise – Daikin has increased sales in 2020 while other companies have seen a drop .
– Daikin ’ s NPM is stable at around 8 % while Carrier ’ s NPM has grown explosively .
– Both Carrier and Daikin have a very strong Interest coverage ratio .
– Johnson ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ irregular expense of 602M Now on to the less financial aspect of the data .
I really like the way Daikin presents their annual report , they have clear strategies on how to better engage the Indian market .
They are also showing that they know where their market growth protentional lays and are willing to act on it .
Furthermore , what really strikes me as interesting is that Daikin produces materials for semiconductor testing , this might be a goldmine in the upcoming tech revolution and Daikin has shown to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carrier on the other hand has not properly breached the Asian/Middle eastern market yet , they have stated to expand their geographical presence but I have found no conclusive strategies in how to do so .
What is impressive about carrier is their high net profit margin and willingness to act on a more digital environment , an area where Daikin is currently lacking .
To conclude this research properly , if I had to choose a company right now , I ’ d being going for Daikin .
Their well-presented data and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their semiconductor products make me believe they are most suited for rapid growth .
Their geographical location also puts them in a better position for Asian dominance .
And their Goodman sub brand is well known in America and a direct competitor to Carrier .
Carrier is a close second , with impressive brand recognition and attractive financials .
One thing carrier does well that Daikin does not is transport refrigeration .
In my opinion trucking is going to play a much larger role when self-driving trucks start to appear .
Disclaimer : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by StonksArthur
Introduction
With the change and progressing to extremer climates, global warming is coming our way. It has been shown world governments are incapable of properly taking action against this threat. Since it seems like global warming won’t be stopped, we will have to start adapting to the new extreme climates. One way of ensuring a comfortable living/working space in this grim future is by making use of HVAC (Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning). And that’s what got me thinking. My family has been hell bent on NOT getting air-conditioning. But with the summer temperatures ever more frequently reaching +40c with a humidity of +70%(Hup Holland Hup) it’s becoming unbearable. Sleepless nights, overheated pets, fainting, old people dying and just losing your will to live. These are all issues more people around the world are starting to face. Every place on earth is getting more extreme. Every place on earth is getting more need for Climate control. And every company is looking to profit of that! This is why my next play is in the HVAC industry.
Finding our compatible companies.
I only want to invest in the best companies. Living in The Netherlands I personally don’t know the best brands, luckily, I’ve got great internet. So, after spitting through some review sites these are the 5 public companies that came out best when looking for “Best HVAC/Air-conditioning companies/brands”. (Not ranked)
Carrier (Day&Night, Bryant, Toshiba & 15 more) Trane (American Standard, Thermo King & 7 more). Daikin (Goodman, Amana). Lennox (Service Experts, Allies Air Enterprises). Johnson Controls (Hitachi, York)
Understanding the HVAC market.
Before we continue to further analyze the companies, we first need to understand the HVAC market.
Some facts:
The HVAC business has been valued at $91.30B in 2020 and is expected to reach $173B by 2024 and $367B by 2030. That’s a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of +/-15%. The most popular countries for Air Conditioning (AC) per household are: Japan 91%, USA 90%, Korea 86%, Saudi Arabia 53%, China 60%. Global stock of AC is expected to grow to 5.6B by 2050, up from 1.6B in 2018. (This is 1 AC sold every second for the next 30 years). Less than a third of the global households own an AC. 8% of the 2.8B people living in the hottest parts of the world own an AC (Brazil, Indonesia, India, African countries). AC demand is increasing every year going from 97,60M in 2012, up 111M in 2018.
As can been seen in the above statements the HVAC business is very well integrated in some large countries. But the most exciting prospects are those of the developing countries. In Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and India only 16%, 16%, 9%, 6% and 5% respectively of the households have AC. This is a MASSIVE market just waiting to be exploited.
– The Indian AC market stood at $4,3B in 2017 and is expected to surpass 11B by 2023, that’s a CAGR of over 17%. This rising growth is led by rising infrastructure development, growing demand for housing and the constantly rising temperatures and consumers purchasing power.
– The Middle Eastern and African market is expected to have an CAGR of 4,9% during 2019-2024.
– The Indonesian market is currently experiencing a 2% CAGR in AC demand over 2012 till 2018.
– The US is expected to have a CAGR of 3.1% from 2020 to 2030.
– Europe is expected to have a CAGR of 6% from 2019 to 2025.
– The global HVAC market is expected to grow with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2018 till 2024.
Market share.
This was actually really really difficult to find free sources on and I can’t really make a clear picture out of it so here are the numbers:
– 2013 North America market: Carrier 17%, Daikin 15%, Trane 10%, Johnson 9%, Lennox 6%, LG 5%.
– 2013 Global AC market: Daikin 13%, Carrier 10%, Johnson 8%, Trane/LG 4%.
– 2018 Indian market share: LG 17,7%, Hitachi 7,9%, Daikin 7,4%.
– HVAC Used by construction firms in USA: Carrier 29%, Lennox 17,3%, Daikin 8,2%, Trane7,3%, LG 1,8% Johnson 1,8%.
– 2020 global “Wall-Mounted Fan Coil Units” market: Daikin 29%, Trane 26%, Carrier 12%, Johnson 7,5%
My conclusion from this and other information found online is that globally Daikin is the biggest followed by Carrier, Johnson, Trane, LG and Lennox. I accounted for all known acquisitions since 2013 in the market share.
An introduction to the Companies
Carrier
Carrier products and related services include HVAC and refrigeration systems, building controls and automation, fire and special hazard suppression systems and equipment, security monitoring and rapid response systems, provided to a diversified international customer base principally in the industrial, commercial and residential property and commercial transportation sectors.
Employees: 53,000+
Countries active: 160+
Market Cap: 25,959B
Key points:
– 85% of sales are in the USA or Europe, they are however planning to expand globally.
– 51% HVAC, 29% Fire and Security, 20% Refrigeration.
– Since April 2020 carrier has split off from Raytheon Technologies, allowing them to focus fully on the HVACR market.
– Carrier is planning on cutting 600million in costs by 2022 (4% of current COGS)
– Carrier has recently launched its “BlueEdge” platform, providing aftermarket service to customers and minimizing machinery downtime & costs. The platform will offer 3 different plans of service to customers. Currently 82% of all Carrier’s revenue comes from products, this is a clear move to increase its services revenue.
– As stated above, Carrier is planning to move more towards (digital) services.
Strengths:
– Well established brand within USA and Europe.
– Leader of the HVAC market.
– Very efficient products.
– Diversified
– 500+ patents and 115y of experience.
– Owns cheaper sub-brands.
– #1 HVAC brand for 10 consecutive years according to Builder Magazine
– Increased focus on smart systems and apps.
Weaknesses:
– Trying to enter markets with well established competitors (Johnson Controls, Daikin)
– Excessive dependence on the American market.
– No lifetime warranties
– No concrete plans for taking over the Asian market.
Trane
Trane Technologies Public Limited Company manufactures industrial equipment. The Company offers central heaters, air conditioners, electric vehicles, air cleaners, and fluid handling products. Trane Technologies serves customers worldwide.
Employees: 50,000+
Countries active: 100+
Market Cap: 28,189B
Key Points:
– Since February 2020 Trane has split from Ingersoll Rand allowing it to fully focus on its HVAC business.
– Revenue: 73% Americas, 12% Asia/Pacific, 15% EMEA.
– Revenue: 79% Climate, 21% Industrial
Strengths:
– 120y of experience.
– Known as reliable, efficient and silent.
– Major investments in reducing carbon emissions for its systems.
– Opportunity for expanding to Asia and the Middle East.
– Reduced product emissions by more than 50%
Weaknesses:
– Heavy dependency on the American market.
– No concrete plans on expansion in the Asian/Middle Eastern market.
– No strong focus on apps/smart systems.
Daikin
DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures air conditioning equipment for household and commercial use. The Company also operates chemical, oil hydraulics, defense system, and electronics businesses.
Employees: 76,000+
Countries active: 150+
Market Cap: 53,273B
Key points:
– Japan sales rose 7% YoY
– Americas sales rose 13% YoY
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– EMEA sales rose 7% YoY
– Asia/Oceania sales rose 10% YoY
– Revenue: 89,6% HVAC, 8,1% Chemicals, 1,7% Oil Hydraulics, 0,6% Defense
– Daikin creates Semiconductor-etching products. Making them well positioned for the “new” tech boom. With the sales of chemicals almost increasing 10% YoY.
– Daikin provides warheads for the Japanese military.
– Owns Goodman.
Strengths:
– Leader of the Indian AC market, creating products that can withstand the extreme conditions in the country. Being able to operate at temperatures as high as 54c, creating AC’s that do not corrode due to sulfuric acid. and also, being able to be dropped from 1m height, to withstand the rough roads.
– Grew its profit in FY2020 while all others decreased in revenue.
– Produces products used for Semiconductors.
– Has a clear plan to expand it’s influence in emerging markets such as India and the Middle East.
– Creates the full supply line for HVAC products, from refrigerants to AC-units.
– Heavy R&D expenses.
Weaknesses:
– China-Us frictions.
– Slowdown of the Japanese economy.
– Does not have trailer refrigeration.
– Outdated apps.
Lennox International
Lennox International Inc. provides climate control solutions. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration equipment. Lennox markets its products worldwide.
Employees: 11,000+
Countries Active: 70+
Market Cap: 10,617B
Key Points:
– Revenue: 60% Residential, 25% Commercial, 15% Refrigeration.
– Mainly present in America.
– Increasing net profit margin.
Strengths:
– Currently has the most efficient split system.
– Launching the Better Air initiative, focused on increasing indoor air quality, a Covid play.
Weaknesses:
– No concrete plans for expanding into emerging markets.
– Not known for the best reliability.
– Stagnating revenue and negative shareholders equity.
– Unreliable apps.
Johnson Controls
Johnson Controls International plc operates as a diversified technology and multi industrial company worldwide. The company operates through Building Solutions North America, Building Solutions EMEA/LA, Building Solutions EMEA/LA, and Global Products segments. The company designs, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems, controls systems, integrated electronic security systems, and integrated fire detection and suppression systems for commercial, industrial, retail, small business, institutional, and governmental customers
Employees: 105,000+
Countries Active: 150+
Market Cap 32,898B
Key Points:
– Launch of its open blue system. Giving customers total control over their building, temperatures, facial recognition ventilation, security, contact tracing and more all in the palm of your hand. (Seriously check the videos, really impressive). This is a clear Covid play and very well timed.
– Owner of York and a joint venture with Hitachi.
– Strong plans for Asian expansion.
Strengths:
– Very good smart systems and mobile apps.
– Launch of it’s OpenBlue system. A digital platform to connect every part of your building.
– Using Covid to their advantage in launching products and services.
– Well aware of the need to expand in China/Asia
– Build a state of the art headquarters in China.
Weaknesses:
– Many negative reviews on its Hitachi brand
Comparing the companies their financials.
TTM DATA
Million $ Carrier Daikin Trane Johnson Lennox Share Price 34,93 18,85 129,22 44,40 288,09 Div Yield 0,94% 0,79 1,64% 2,34% 1,07% R&D Expenses 402 652,8 237 319 69,60 Revenue 18,173 23,526 15,957 22,637 3,605 Net Income 1,812 1,351 965 802 358 Cash 2,704 3,559 1,303 2,805 37 Debt 12,029 5,316 5,573 7,219 1,354 FCF 1,982 1,877 1,182 1,459 633

TTM Carrier Daikin Trane Johnson Lennox P/E 26,70 30,32 25,32 42,33 31,05 EPS 2,09 4,62 4,05 1,05 9,28 Payout Ratio 15% 3,25% 52% 99% 33% Debt/Equity 0,55 0,82 1,80 1,03 1,03 Term Cash/Debt – 2,39 2 5,49 5,49 Current Ratio 1,33 1,88 1,28 1,36 1,36 ROE 12,5% 9,6% 13% 3,8% 3,8% Net Margin 9,97% 5,74% 6,05% 8,39% 8,39% R&D/Revenue 22,12% 27,74% 14,85% 14,09% 14,09% Interest Coverage Ratio 28 23,63 7,09 2,64 2,64

Revenue 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 TTM CAGR Carrier 16,709 16,853 17,814 18,914 18,608 18,173 2% Daikin 18,384 19,619 19,622 21,989 23,818 24,482 23.526 5% Trane 13,300 13,508 14,197 15,668 16,589 15.957 2% Johnson 17,100 20,837 22,835 23,400 23,968 22.637 7% Lennox 3,467 3,641 3,839 3,883 3,907 3.605 5%

Net Profit 2017 2018 2019 2020 TTM Carrier 1,227 2,734 2,116 1,812 Daikin 1,447 1,814 1,814 1,639 1,351 Trane 1,302 1,337 1,410 964 Johnson 1,611 1,128 1,076 802 Lennox 305 360 408 341

NPM 2017 2018 2019 2020 TTM Carrier 7% 14% 11% 10% Daikin 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% Trane 9% 9% 9% 6% Johnson 7% 5% 4% 4% Lennox 8% 9% 11% 9%
Conclusion
First of all, I should start with saying that Lennox really shouldn’t have been included, they are on a completely different level than these 4 other companies. Also, Johnson had some fuckery going on in all their 10k’s so these numbers might not add up, let me know if you found something.
Looking at the company’s financials and numbers it’s a tough decision to make, all companies a pretty close to each other. There are however some things that stand out:
– Carrier has a significantly higher NPM then the competitors.
– Lennox might be in financial trouble.
– Daikin spends the most on R&D relative to its revenue, I see this as a big plus.
– Johnson their revenue is growing the fastest on a 5Y CAGR.
– Johnson their P/E is much higher than the competition.
– Johnson their Dividend is the higher % wise
– Daikin has increased sales in 2020 while other companies have seen a drop.
– Daikin’s NPM is stable at around 8% while Carrier’s NPM has grown explosively.
– Trane has a high debt/equity ratio
– Both Carrier and Daikin have a very strong Interest coverage ratio.
– Johnson’s TTM would be better without an irregular expense of 602M
Now on to the less financial aspect of the data.
I really like the way Daikin presents their annual report, they have clear strategies on how to better engage the Indian market. They are also showing that they know where their market growth protentional lays and are willing to act on it. Furthermore, what really strikes me as interesting is that Daikin produces materials for semiconductor testing, this might be a goldmine in the upcoming tech revolution and Daikin has shown to be well aware of this upcoming trend. Carrier on the other hand has not properly breached the Asian/Middle eastern market yet, they have stated to expand their geographical presence but I have found no conclusive strategies in how to do so. What is impressive about carrier is their high net profit margin and willingness to act on a more digital environment, an area where Daikin is currently lacking.
To conclude this research properly, if I had to choose a company right now, I’d being going for Daikin. Their well-presented data and goals for emerging markets, combined with their semiconductor products make me believe they are most suited for rapid growth. Their geographical location also puts them in a better position for Asian dominance. And their Goodman sub brand is well known in America and a direct competitor to Carrier. Carrier is a close second, with impressive brand recognition and attractive financials. One thing carrier does well that Daikin does not is transport refrigeration. In my opinion trucking is going to play a much larger role when self-driving trucks start to appear.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Suicide Bomber Blows Himself Up In Turkey

Suicide bomber clashes with police before blowing himself up in Iskenderun , Turkey # Turkey pic.twitter.com/OcsypTUUXP

Suicide bomber clashes with police before blowing himself up in Iskenderun, Turkey #Turkey pic.twitter.com/OcsypTUUXP
— CNW (@ConflictsW) October 26, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--AOC blasts long lines at NYC polling stations as ‘voter suppression’ and waits TWO HOURS to cast her

AOC blasts long lines at NYC polling stations as ‘voter suppression’ and waits TWO HOURS to cast her ballot in the Bronx

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined voters in Parkchester , Bronx Ocasio-Cortez expressed how ’ emotional ’ it is to vote and a ‘ privilege every single time ’ She also said that waiting in line for longer than two hours was unacceptable and a form of voter suppression Video from across New York City shows some lines stretching for blocks So far more than 58million Americans have already cast their ballots as of Sunday , with just nine days to go before November 3 Bronx Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticized long lines she found while visiting a polling site in the borough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
Voters had been waiting in line for several hours when the congresswoman showed up .
‘ There is no place in the United States of America where two- , three- , four-hour waits to vote is acceptable , ’ the Democrat said outside the site in Parkchester .
‘ And just because it ’ s happening in a blue state , doesn ’ t mean that it ’ s not voter suppression .
If we are waiting three hours , four hours , five hours , if this was happening in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national coverage.
’ ‘ Frankly , this also shows the success of early voting as well , ’ Ocasio-Cortez said .
‘ I will wait two hours just like my neighbors are.
’ Currently there are 88 polling sites open around the Big Apple with many locations reporting lines stretching around the block as people queued to cast their ballots since early voting began on Saturday .

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined voters in Parkchester, Bronx
Ocasio-Cortez expressed how ’emotional’ it is to vote and a ‘privilege every single time’
She also said that waiting in line for longer than two hours was unacceptable and a form of voter suppression
Video from across New York City shows some lines stretching for blocks
So far more than 58million Americans have already cast their ballots as of Sunday, with just nine days to go before November 3
Bronx Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticized long lines she found while visiting a polling site in the borough on Sunday morning to cast her own vote.
Voters had been waiting in line for several hours when the congresswoman showed up.
‘There is no place in the United States of America where two-, three-, four-hour waits to vote is acceptable,’ the Democrat said outside the site in Parkchester.
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‘And just because it’s happening in a blue state, doesn’t mean that it’s not voter suppression. If we are waiting three hours, four hours, five hours, if this was happening in a swing state, there would be national coverage.’
‘Frankly, this also shows the success of early voting as well,’ Ocasio-Cortez said. ‘I will wait two hours just like my neighbors are.’
Currently there are 88 polling sites open around the Big Apple with many locations reporting lines stretching around the block as people queued to cast their ballots since early voting began on Saturday.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8878389/Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-long-wait-line-Bronx-polling-site-lines-stretching-block.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--CNN Going BROKE! Losing MILLIONS As They Continue To Chase “ORANGE MAN BAD” Narrative! GET WOKE GO

This morning President Trump said in Allentown PA that he heard AT & T is getting ready to fire CNN @ @ @ @

This morning President Trump said in Allentown PA that he heard AT&T is getting ready to fire CNN’s Jeff Zucker…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Hillary Clinton Whines on Birthday, ‘I Was the Candidate That Trump Basically Stole a rigged Electio

Hillary Clinton Whines on Birthday, ‘I Was the Candidate That Trump Basically Stole a rigged Election From’

It has been nearly four years since Hillary Clinton ’ s crushing election loss and she is still whining .
Clinton whined about the “ vast right-wing conspiracy , ” Comey and the Russians when asked why she thought she lost the 2016 election .
Hillary also said there is “ an air of illegitimacy that surrounds Trump ’ s presidency.
” “ I think that Trump and a lot of the people around him know that his victory was not on the up and up .
They had an extensive campaign to suppress black voters , ” Hillary Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more about that than we did .
They had third party candidates boosted , particularly by Russian media .
And the lies and ridiculous stories made up about me were meant to either keep you at home , or drive you third party if they couldn ’ t get you to vote for Trump .
So there is an air of illegitimacy that surrounds Trump ’ s presidency , and that just infuriates them .
It makes them crazy .
And that ’ s a big piece of it .
So they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because– “ Former secretary of state and Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said during an interview Monday with journalist Kara Swisher , “ It literally makes me sick to my stomach ” to think that President Donald Trump may be reelected in November .
“ I can ’ t entertain the idea of him winning , so let ’ s just preface it by that , ” Clinton said during the podcast , which is part of the New York Times Opinion network .

It has been nearly four years since Hillary Clinton’s
crushing election loss and she is still whining.
Clinton whined about the “vast right-wing conspiracy,” Comey and the Russians when asked why she thought she lost the 2016 election.
Hillary also said there is “an air of illegitimacy that surrounds Trump’s presidency.”
“I think that Trump and a lot of the people around him know that his victory was not on the up and up. They had an extensive campaign to suppress black voters,” Hillary Clinton said. “We now know much more about that than we did. They had third party candidates boosted, particularly by Russian media. And the lies and ridiculous stories made up about me were meant to either keep you at home, or drive you third party if they couldn’t get you to vote for Trump. So there is an air of illegitimacy that surrounds Trump’s presidency, and that just infuriates them. It makes them crazy. And that’s a big piece of it. So they have to keep striking out at me, because–“
Why you?” Kara Swisher asked.
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www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/hillary-clinton-whines-birthday-candidate-trump-basically-stole-election/
Former secretary of state and Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said during an interview Monday with journalist Kara Swisher, “It literally makes me sick to my stomach” to think that President Donald Trump may be reelected in November.
“I can’t entertain the idea of him winning, so let’s just preface it by that,” Clinton said during the podcast, which is part of the New York Times Opinion network.
www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/26/hillary-clinton-sick-stomach-possible-trump-reelection/


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--This was Bidens worst speech yet. Whats up with this guy?

When you think it cant possibly get worse :

When you think it cant possibly get worse:
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Why Debt-To-Income Ratios Are Worse Than They Appear

I recently published an article discussing why “ recessions ” are a good thing by reverting debt buildups excesses during expansions .
The argument against debt reversions is always the same in that “ debt-to-income ” ratios low .
To wit : If you look at a chart , it certainly would seem that would be the case .
But , like most data from the Federal Reserve , you have to dig behind the numbers to reveal the real story .
So let ’ s do that , shall we ?
Every year , most Americans go further into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standard of living .
To wit : The idea of “ maintaining a certain standard of living ” has become a foundation in society currently .
The average American believes they are “ entitled ” to a specific type of house , car , and general lifestyle .
Such includes living necessities such as food , running water , electricity , and the latest mobile phone , computer , and high-speed internet connection .
( Really , what would be the point of living if you didn ’ t have access to Facebook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maintaining this “ entitled ” lifestyle requires money , and as shown above , when income and savings run short , debt fills the gap .
One of the headline stories of late has been the sharp decline in credit balances as individuals were rapidly paying down credit .
Each quarter , the Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its quarterly consumer debt composition and balances survey .
( Note that consumers are at near-record debt levels and roughly $ 1.5 Trillion more than in 2008 . )
See that little decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the deleveraging cycle picked up by the media .
However , when we break down the data , a very different picture emerges .
The average American has $ 90,460 in debt .
A recent CNBC article broke down how much debt Americans have at every age .
Much of the analysis touted by the media use either “ averages ” or “ median ” measures of a particular set of data .
While there is nothing inherently wrong in reporting such data , the message sent can get distorted when there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Such is particularly the case when it comes to disposable incomes .
The calculation of disposable personal income ( which is income fewer taxes ) is mostly a guess due to the variability of households ’ income taxes .
More importantly , the measure becomes skewed by the top 20 % of income earners , needless to say , the top 5 % .
As shown in the chart below , those in the top 20 % have seen substantially larger median wage growth versus the bottom 80 % .
( Note @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Census Bureau and the IRS . )
Furthermore , disposable and discretionary incomes are two very different animals .
Discretionary income is the remainder of disposable income after paying for all of the mandatory spendings like rent , food , utilities , health care premiums , insurance , etc .
From this view , the “ cost of living ” has risen much more dramatically than incomes .
According to a previous Pew Research study : In other words , given the bulk of the wage gains are in the upper 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ median ” or “ average ” of the information is inherently skewed to the upside .
Again , when you see data using “ medians ” or “ averages , ” such is not incorrect .
However , the assumptions are skewed by the “ wealth and income ” gap in the top 20 % of the population .
Such was a point put forth previously by the WSJ : Given this information , it should not be surprising that personal consumption expenditures , which make up roughly 70 % of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surging debt levels to offset the lack of wage growth in the bottom 80 % of the economy .
More importantly , despite low debt-to-income ratios , the percentage of government transfer payments ( social benefits ) now comprises 1/4th of real disposable incomes .
Today , nearly 1-in-4 families in the U.S. receive some form of Government assistance .
The study also noted the data anomaly : Here is the point .
There is a vast difference between the level of indebtedness ( per household ) for those in the bottom 80 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
Of course , the only saving grace for many American households is that artificially low-interest rates have reduced the average debt service levels .
Unfortunately , those in the bottom 80 % are still having a large chunk of their median disposable income eaten up by debt payments .
Such reduces discretionary spending capacity even further .
The problem is quite clear .
With interest rates already at historic lows , the consumer already heavily leveraged , and wage growth stagnant , the capability to increase consumption to foster higher economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also why interest rates CAN NOT rise by very much without triggering a debt-related crisis .
The chart below is the interest service ratio on total consumer debt .
( The graph is exceptionally optimistic as it assumes all consumer debt benchmarks to the 10-year treasury rate . )
While the media proclaims consumers are in great shape because interest service is low , it only takes small increases in rates to trigger a “ recession ” or “ crisis ” event .
The illusion of the decline in the debt-to-income ratios obfuscates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that policies are working .
The majority of Americans can not increase consumption , the driver of economic growth , without further increasing debt burdens .
For those in the top-10 % of the wealth holders , higher asset prices , tax cuts , etc .
do not lead to increases in consumption as they are already at capacity .
While the Federal Reserve ’ s ongoing interventions , stimulus programs , etc .
have certainly boosted asset prices higher , the only real accomplishment has been a widening of the wealth gap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accomplish is an increase in production to foster higher economic activity levels .
With the average American still living well beyond their means , the reality is that economic growth will remain mired at lower levels .
Such is because the debt service continues to divert savings from productive investment .
Of course , the issue is a central theme to the U.S. and the global economy .
The “ structural shift ” is quite apparent as high debt levels prohibit the productive investment necessary to fuel higher production rates , employment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future , many will look back and ask the critical questions : • Why did the government fail to use artificially low-interest rates and excessive liquidity to support the financial system ’ s deleveraging ?
• With such low rates and liquidity support , why didn ’ t they refinance government debts and restructure unfunded social welfare systems ?
• Why did they insist on continuing to go further into debt rather than working on real solutions to create a more prosperous economy for all ?
The answer is that no one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem .
Nor are they willing to accept they have a responsibility in it .
Politicians want to get re-elected .
Individuals would preferably depend on government handouts rather than admit their financial failures .
Unfortunately , until the deleveraging cycle is allowed to occur , the attainment of more robust and autonomous economic growth will remain elusive .
In the meantime , those in the top 10 % of income brackets will continue to enjoy an increase in overall prosperity .
For everyone else , it is highly unlikely that debt-to-income ratios @ @ @ @

by Lance Roberts
I recently published an article discussing why “recessions” are a good thing by reverting debt buildups excesses during expansions. The argument against debt reversions is always the same in that “debt-to-income” ratios low. To wit:
“One reason (of many) we don’t need a debt reversion is that household debt service costs (interest etc.) as a % of household incomes are currently at a 40 year low.” – S. Porter
If you look at a chart, it certainly would seem that would be the case.
But, like most data from the Federal Reserve, you have to dig behind the numbers to reveal the real story.
So let’s do that, shall we?
This is exactly why the Fed's "Debt to income ratios" are wrong. (The ratios are heavily skewed by the top 10% of income earners. Bottom 80% in debt up to their eyeballs.) pic.twitter.com/rb4wx3XAXA — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 23, 2020
Living The Dream
Every year, most Americans go further into debt just to “sustain” their standard of living. To wit:
“In 1998, monetary velocity peaked and began to turn lower. Such coincides with the point that consumers were forced into debt to sustain their standard of living. For decades, WallStreet, advertisers, and corporate powerhouses flooded consumers with advertising to induce them into buying bigger houses, televisions, and cars. The age of ‘consumerism’ took hold.“
The idea of “maintaining a certain standard of living” has become a foundation in society currently. The average American believes they are “entitled” to a specific type of house, car, and general lifestyle. Such includes living necessities such as food, running water, electricity, and the latest mobile phone, computer, and high-speed internet connection. (Really, what would be the point of living if you didn’t have access to Facebook every two minutes?)
However, maintaining this “entitled” lifestyle requires money, and as shown above, when income and savings run short, debt fills the gap.
The Illusion Of Debt Reduction
One of the headline stories of late has been the sharp decline in credit balances as individuals were rapidly paying down credit.
Such isn’t the case.
Each quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its quarterly consumer debt composition and balances survey. (Note that consumers are at near-record debt levels and roughly $1.5 Trillion more than in 2008.)
See that little decline from the recent peak? That is the deleveraging cycle picked up by the media.
However, when we break down the data, a very different picture emerges.
The average American has $90,460 in debt. A recent CNBC article broke down how much debt Americans have at every age.
“Here’s the average debt balances by age group: Gen Z (ages 18 to 23): $9,593
$9,593 Millennials (ages 24 to 39): $78,396
$78,396 Gen X (ages 40 to 55): $135,841
$135,841 Baby boomers (ages 56 to 74): $96,984
$96,984 Silent generation (ages 75 and above): $40,925 According to Experian, consumers in the two oldest age categories have seen a significant decrease in debt since 2015 (about -7.5% for baby boomers and -7.7% for the silent generation overall). Meanwhile, millennials have seen the largest increase in debt in the last five years: In 2015, the average millennial had about $49,722 in debt, and by 2019 they carried an average of $78,396 in total debt — an increase of 58%,”
A Function Of Income
Much of the analysis touted by the media use either “averages” or “median” measures of a particular set of data. While there is nothing inherently wrong in reporting such data, the message sent can get distorted when there is a skew in the underlying data set.
Such is particularly the case when it comes to disposable incomes. The calculation of disposable personal income (which is income fewer taxes) is mostly a guess due to the variability of households’ income taxes.
More importantly, the measure becomes skewed by the top 20% of income earners, needless to say, the top 5%. As shown in the chart below, those in the top 20% have seen substantially larger median wage growth versus the bottom 80%. (Note: all data used below is from the Census Bureau and the IRS.)
Furthermore, disposable and discretionary incomes are two very different animals.
Discretionary income is the remainder of disposable income after paying for all of the mandatory spendings like rent, food, utilities, health care premiums, insurance, etc.
From this view, the “cost of living” has risen much more dramatically than incomes. According to a previous Pew Research study:
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“In fact, despite some ups and downs over the past several decades, today’s real average wage (that is, the wage after accounting for inflation) has about the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago. And what wage gains there have been have mostly flowed to the highest-paid tier of workers.”
In other words, given the bulk of the wage gains are in the upper 20%, any data that reports a “median” or “average” of the information is inherently skewed to the upside.
Data Skew
Again, when you see data using “medians” or “averages,” such is not incorrect. However, the assumptions are skewed by the “wealth and income” gap in the top 20% of the population. Such was a point put forth previously by the WSJ:
“The median net worth of households in the middle 20% of income rose 4% in inflation-adjusted terms to $81,900 between 1989 and 2016, the latest available data. For households in the top 20%, median net worth more than doubled to $811,860. And for the top 1%, the increase was 178% to $11,206,000.”
“Put differently, the value of assets for all U.S. households increased from 1989 through 2016 by an inflation-adjusted $58 trillion. A full 33% of that gain—$19 trillion—went to the wealthiest 1%, according to a Journal analysis of Fed data.”
Given this information, it should not be surprising that personal consumption expenditures, which make up roughly 70% of the economic equation, must be supported by surging debt levels to offset the lack of wage growth in the bottom 80% of the economy.
More importantly, despite low debt-to-income ratios, the percentage of government transfer payments (social benefits) now comprises 1/4th of real disposable incomes. Today, nearly 1-in-4 families in the U.S. receive some form of Government assistance.
The study also noted the data anomaly:
“Government transfer payments have ‘offset only a small fraction of the increase in pre-tax inequality,’ Piketty, Saez, and Zucman conclude—and those payments fail to bridge the gap for the bottom 50 percent because they go mostly to the middle class and the elderly.”
Real Debt-To-Income Ratios
Here is the point. There is a vast difference between the level of indebtedness (per household) for those in the bottom 80% versus those in the top 20%.
Of course, the only saving grace for many American households is that artificially low-interest rates have reduced the average debt service levels. Unfortunately, those in the bottom 80% are still having a large chunk of their median disposable income eaten up by debt payments. Such reduces discretionary spending capacity even further.
The problem is quite clear. With interest rates already at historic lows, the consumer already heavily leveraged, and wage growth stagnant, the capability to increase consumption to foster higher economic growth rates is limited.
Such is also why interest rates CAN NOT rise by very much without triggering a debt-related crisis. The chart below is the interest service ratio on total consumer debt. (The graph is exceptionally optimistic as it assumes all consumer debt benchmarks to the 10-year treasury rate.) While the media proclaims consumers are in great shape because interest service is low, it only takes small increases in rates to trigger a “recession” or “crisis” event.
An Illusion Of Prosperity
The illusion of the decline in the debt-to-income ratios obfuscates real economic problems and fosters the belief that policies are working.
They aren’t.
The majority of Americans cannot increase consumption, the driver of economic growth, without further increasing debt burdens. For those in the top-10% of the wealth holders, higher asset prices, tax cuts, etc. do not lead to increases in consumption as they are already at capacity.
While the Federal Reserve’s ongoing interventions, stimulus programs, etc. have certainly boosted asset prices higher, the only real accomplishment has been a widening of the wealth gap. What monetary interventions have failed to accomplish is an increase in production to foster higher economic activity levels.
With the average American still living well beyond their means, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired at lower levels. Such is because the debt service continues to divert savings from productive investment. Of course, the issue is a central theme to the U.S. and the global economy.
The Debt Must Revert
The “structural shift” is quite apparent as high debt levels prohibit the productive investment necessary to fuel higher production rates, employment, wage growth, and consumption.
In the future, many will look back and ask the critical questions:
Why did the government fail to use artificially low-interest rates and excessive liquidity to support the financial system’s deleveraging? With such low rates and liquidity support, why didn’t they refinance government debts and restructure unfunded social welfare systems? Why did they insist on continuing to go further into debt rather than working on real solutions to create a more prosperous economy for all?
The answer is that no one is willing to admit there is a problem. Nor are they willing to accept they have a responsibility in it. Politicians want to get re-elected. Individuals would preferably depend on government handouts rather than admit their financial failures.
Unfortunately, until the deleveraging cycle is allowed to occur, the attainment of more robust and autonomous economic growth will remain elusive.
In the meantime, those in the top 10% of income brackets will continue to enjoy an increase in overall prosperity. For everyone else, it is highly unlikely that debt-to-income ratios have improved much.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--The entire world will see the Blue Moon (Halloween) October 31st. The first time since 1944

This year marks the first time a Halloween full moon has been visible in all time zones since 1944 — meaning every person around the world will experience the Halloween blue moon together for the first time since World War II .
The full moon that will be visible on Oct. 31 is called the blue moon because it ’ s the second full moon of the same month — following the harvest moon of Oct. 1 through Oct. 3 .
And in a rare treat , the 2020 Halloween full moon will be visible to the entire world , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the first time since World War II .
From and including : Saturday , October 31 , 2020 To , but not including Tuesday , November 3 , 2020 THE HARVEST HAS BEEN COMPLETED October ’ s first full moon is the harvest moon on October 1 , and the second full moon will occur on October 31 .
HUNTER ’ S MOON OCOTOBER 31ST .
in the Constellation of TAURUS Instead they will say , ‘ As surely as the LORD lives , who brought the Israelites up out of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other lands to which He had banished them.
’ For I will return them to their land that I gave to their forefathers .
But for now I will send for many fishermen , declares the LORD , and they will catch them .
After that I will send for many hunters , and they will hunt them down on every mountain and hill , even from the clefts of the rocks .
For My eyes are on all their ways .
They are not hidden from My face , and their guilt @ @ @ @ @ @

OCTOBER 31ST, 2020
This year marks the first time a Halloween full moon has been visible in all time zones since 1944 — meaning every person around the world will experience the Halloween blue moon together for the first time since World War II.
October 31, 1944
Tuesday
(Halloween)
The full moon that will be visible on Oct. 31 is called the blue moon because it’s the second full moon of the same month — following the harvest moon of Oct. 1 through Oct. 3. And in a rare treat, the 2020 Halloween full moon will be visible to the entire world, rather than just parts of it, for the first time since World War II.
www.cnet.com/news/rare-blue-to-will-bring-a-halloween-2020-treat/
ELECTION DAY
From and including: Saturday, October 31, 2020
To, but not including Tuesday, November 3, 2020
Result: 3 days
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THE HARVEST HAS BEEN COMPLETED
October’s first full moon is the harvest moon on October 1, and the second full moon will occur on October 31.
HUNTER’S MOON OCOTOBER 31ST. in the Constellation of TAURUS
Instead they will say, ‘As surely as the LORD lives, who brought the Israelites up out of the land of the north and all the other lands to which He had banished them.’ For I will return them to their land that I gave to their forefathers.
But for now I will send for many fishermen, declares the LORD, and they will catch them.
After that I will send for many hunters, and they will hunt them down on every mountain and hill, even from the clefts of the rocks.
For My eyes are on all their ways. They are not hidden from My face, and their guilt is not concealed from My eyes.…
JEREMIAH 16:16
h/t christian


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--OCTOBER 26 UPDATE: Trump remains a +170 betting underdog with the general election just eight days a

OCTOBER 26 UPDATE: Trump remains a +170 betting underdog with the general election just eight days away.

General election odds fluctuated slightly throughout the weekend and ultimately ended up exactly where we left off on Thursday .
@ @ @ @ @ underdog with the general election just eight days away .
Biden remains in control as @ @ @ @ @ off the second and final presidential debate .

General election odds fluctuated slightly throughout the weekend and ultimately ended up exactly where we left off on Thursday. Trump remains a +170 betting underdog with the general election just eight days away. Biden remains in control as a heavy -200 favorite coming off the second and final presidential debate.
bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--76% of American CEOs say they may shrink office space (28% say they need a lot less office space) As

76% of American CEOs say they may shrink office space (28% say they need a lot less office space) As CMBX 12 loses 20% since March

Should you take out students loans to get a Masters in Real Estate Development ( MRED ) degree ?
Unless MRED programs move away from their usual orientation towards office space ( George Mason University ) , they will be dead .
And your student loans will be an albatross around your neck for a useless degree .
( Fortune ) We knew it was a bad time for commercial real estate .
We didn ’ t imagine it was this bad .
Among CEOs , 76 % told Fortune their company will need less office space in the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll need a lot less office space .
That ’ s the finding from a Fortune survey of 171 CEOs in collaboration with Deloitte between September 23 to 30 .
* If we look at the office dominated CMBX 12 , And if we look at CMBX prices for S12 , the price crashed with Covid in March 2020 and has only recovered from 100 to 80.19 as an indication of how bad the office market is .
And with prolonged government shutdowns , the demand for office space is in decline .
@ @ @ @

by confoundedinterest17
Should you take out students loans to get a Masters in Real Estate Development (MRED) degree? Unless MRED programs move away from their usual orientation towards office space (George Mason University), they will be dead. And your student loans will be an albatross around your neck for a useless degree.
(Fortune) We knew it was a bad time for commercial real estate. We didn’t imagine it was this bad.
Among CEOs, 76% told Fortune their company will need less office space in the future. And 28% say they’ll need a lot less office space. That’s the finding from a Fortune survey of 171 CEOs in collaboration with Deloitte between September 23 to 30.*
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If we look at the office dominated CMBX 12,
And if we look at CMBX prices for S12, the price crashed with Covid in March 2020 and has only recovered from 100 to 80.19 as an indication of how bad the office market is.
And with prolonged government shutdowns, the demand for office space is in decline. Just sleep in.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Diet Coke could be just as bad for you as full fat: A long term study has shown that artificially sw

Diet Coke could be just as bad for you as full fat: A long term study has shown that artificially sweetened drinks and sugary beverages BOTH increase the risk of heart disease by up to 20%

• French researchers tracked more than 104,000 people over ten years • They were categorised as non-consumers , high or @ @ @ @ @ • Consumption of sugary or artificially sweetened drinks was recorded biannually Diet drinks are just @ @ @ @ @ as the full-sugar versions , a study has found .
French researchers tracked more than @ @ @ @ @ , looking at how many sugary or sugar-free soft drinks they consumed .
They found @ @ @ @ @ and artificially sweetened drinks are up to 20 per cent more likely to suffer heart @ @ @ @ @ attacks than those who avoid soft drinks .

French researchers tracked more than 104,000 people over ten years
They were categorised as non-consumers, high or low consumers of fizzy drinks
Consumption of sugary or artificially sweetened drinks was recorded biannually
Diet drinks are just as bad for your heart as the full-sugar versions, a study has found.
French researchers tracked more than 104,000 people over ten years, looking at how many sugary or sugar-free soft drinks they consumed.
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They found the consumers of both sugary and artificially sweetened drinks are up to 20 per cent more likely to suffer heart disease, stroke or heart attacks than those who avoid soft drinks.
www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8881311/Drinking-diet-coke-just-bad-fat.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Biden vs Trump. Analysis of Facts. This might or might not shock you.

Obviously the facts speak for themselves that Joe Biden is the true racist while the historically racist Democrats lie and @ @ @ @ @ which is part of their party to trick and fool the people Many smart people @ @ @ @ @ feelings don ’ t pay attention to actual facts .
A true racist party has @ @ @ @ @ ’ s look at the historic facts that are in your face but are subverted @ @ @

Obviously the facts speak for themselves that Joe Biden is the true racist while the historically racist Democrats lie and subvert and use the media which is part of their party to trick and fool the people
Many smart people have been fooled because their feelings don’t pay attention to actual facts.
A true racist party has always been the left
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Let’s look at the historic facts that are in your face but are subverted by the media
h/t Deplorable QuantumLove


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--More Big Tech Censorship….Twitter now blocking you from liking President Trump’s tweets to prevent t

More Big Tech Censorship….Twitter now blocking you from liking President Trump’s tweets to prevent them from trending.

In an effort to further censor the President without actually censoring him , Twitter in blocking users from liking the @ @ @ @ @ US President Trump Again After He Questions Election Integrity !
This is criminal action by @ @ @ @ @ .
The social media giant again today censored President Trump ’ s account after he @ @ @ @ @

by SuperPwnerGuy
In an effort to further censor the President without actually censoring him, Twitter in blocking users from liking the Presidents Tweets.
Related:
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Twitter Censors US President Trump Again After He Questions Election Integrity!
This is criminal action by Twitter.
It is electioneering.
The social media giant again today censored President Trump’s account after he questioned mail-in voting integrity.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Declassified CIA documents confirm Hillary created the Russia interference narrative in 2016

Hand written notes from CIA Director Brennan briefed the president on intel of Hillary ’ s plan to create the @ @ @ @ @ her email scandal .
The CIA also sent information over to FBI task force looking @ @ @ @ @ a formal document .

Hand written notes from CIA Director Brennan briefed the president on intel of Hillary’s plan to create the Russia story to distract from her email scandal.
The CIA also sent information over to FBI task force looking into the Russia allegations in a formal document.
CIA to FBI:
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static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/ENCLOSURE_2__DCIA_Memo_09-07-16__U.pdf
h/t Opinion198


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--You are actually NOT a slave. Don’t let the elite trick you into thinking you are.

Kanye said slavery was a choice .
he said it “ was like we were mentally imprisoned.
” When you learn about the level of darkness in the word governments it ’ s easy to lose hope , and enter into a mindset of “ uncertainty ” When you are uncertain you are more open to suggestion .
And that ’ s when you can be tricked into listening to the posts I regularly see here saying “ you are a slave ” and all other fatalistic hopeless garbage .
One thing that IS certain , is that if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slave , and in a hopeless negative state you are doing exactly what the elite want you to do .
They can ’ t physically enslave you ( YET ) but they can mentally .
Don ’ t let them .
The only way they can take total control is if the people who are aware , who can have free thought and resist , have been tricked into a hopeless slave state .
We are in a golden age .
The great awakening is upon us .
it ’ s easy to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into an uncertain mindset about the nature of our world .
At that point you are open to negative suggestion .
Don ’ t let your uncertainty turn into certainty that is false .
Don ’ t let yourself enter a hopeless slave mindset .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by autofails
Kanye said slavery was a choice. he said it “was like we were mentally imprisoned.”
When you learn about the level of darkness in the word governments it’s easy to lose hope, and enter into a mindset of “uncertainty”
When you are uncertain you are more open to suggestion.
And that’s when you can be tricked into listening to the posts I regularly see here saying “you are a slave” and all other fatalistic hopeless garbage.
One thing that IS certain, is that if you spend your time thinking you are a slave, and in a hopeless negative state you are doing exactly what the elite want you to do.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
They can’t physically enslave you (YET) but they can mentally. Don’t let them.
The only way they can take total control is if the people who are aware, who can have free thought and resist, have been tricked into a hopeless slave state.
We are in a golden age. The great awakening is upon us.
it’s easy to see the negativity and corruption and enter into an uncertain mindset about the nature of our world. At that point you are open to negative suggestion. Don’t let your uncertainty turn into certainty that is false. Don’t let yourself enter a hopeless slave mindset.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--CDC cancels flu for 2020-21 season

CDC cancels flu for 2020-21 season

Couldn ’ t make the numbers stack up , now they are counting every influenza death as covid-19 .
Truth @ @ @ @ @ for a year .
A virus so deadly it killed the flu

by Venus230
Couldn’t make the numbers stack up, now they are counting every influenza death as covid-19.
Truth is they probably have been for a year.
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A virus so deadly it killed the flu
www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Audio evidence of Hunter Biden admitting to being in a partnership with the “Spy Chief of China” and

Audio evidence of Hunter Biden admitting to being in a partnership with the “ Spy Chief of China ” and @ @ @ @ @ .
CNN ran with Melania ’ s “ secret tapes.
” Will they cover this @

🚨🚨🚨Holy Shit! Biden is compromised
Audio evidence of Hunter Biden admitting to being in a partnership with the “Spy Chief of China” and he admits his father knew.
CNN ran with Melania’s “secret tapes.” Will they cover this?
RT so they can’t ignore! pic.twitter.com/N7Ee8ey7Mq
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Buy Gold Now, or it Will Soon Be Too Late with Andy Schechtman

Andy Schechtman recalls the summer of 2017 .
The German Bundesbank announced a 2020 deadline to repatriate all of their @ @ @ @ @ followed by a number of other European Countries .
They appeared to be in a @ @ @ @ @ CB ’ s were net sellers of gold .
In 2018 the CB ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Basel 3 came into play , reclassifying Gold as a Tier 1 asset on bank @ @ @ @ @ Comex there is a designation of “ others ” all of whom are standing for @ @ @ @ @ One week ago we see the IMF calling for a new Bretton Woods .
The @ @ @ @ @ in Davos .
Federal Reserve issues new rules to protect against the collapse of large @ @ @ @ @ a new system is here .
We are entering a period of time where we @ @ @ @ @ will the dollar last .
We ’ re approaching the end .

from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network
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Andy Schechtman recalls the summer of 2017. The German Bundesbank announced a 2020 deadline to repatriate all of their overseas gold. This was followed by a number of other European Countries. They appeared to be in a rush. At this point CB’s were net sellers of gold. In 2018 the CB’s became buyers. In 2019 Basel 3 came into play, reclassifying Gold as a Tier 1 asset on bank balance sheets. On the Comex there is a designation of “others” all of whom are standing for delivery. Highly unusual. One week ago we see the IMF calling for a new Bretton Woods. The Great Reset meeting is coming in Davos. Federal Reserve issues new rules to protect against the collapse of large banks. The call for a new system is here. We are entering a period of time where we must ask how much longer will the dollar last. We’re approaching the end.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Russia implements nation-wide mask mandate… Germany calls in the Army to assist with tracking down a

Russia implements nation-wide mask mandate… Germany calls in the Army to assist with tracking down and tracing “COVID” cases

BREAKING – Germany has called in the military `` for assistance '' amid the rapid spike in # COVID19 cases.pic.twitter.com/8bZ2AC7UY3

BREAKING – Germany has called in the military "for assistance" amid the rapid spike in #COVID19 cases.pic.twitter.com/8bZ2AC7UY3
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) October 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Early Voters Can Change Their Votes Before Voting Deadline in These States

In the immediate hours after the final presidential debate , a wave of people took to the internet to search @ @ @ @ @ vote ’ indicating trouble for the Biden campaign In the aftermath of the final presidential @ @ @ @ @ a spike in people inputting the search term , “ can I change my vote.
@ @ @ @ @ .
There are several states in which you can change your vote after casting an @ @ @ @ @ Google Trends data indicated several spikes for searches on and after the last presidential debate @ @ @ @ @ .
The first search phrase was “ Hunter Biden China ” and the second was @ @ @ @ @ vote.
” The second also saw a correlating spike with the first for a second @ @ @ @ @ vote in all of these states requires a voter to go , in-person , to @ @ @ @ @ Office to process required documentation .
In fact , several states have you can change @ @ @ @ @ either voted early or voted absentee :

In the immediate hours after the final presidential debate,
a wave of people took to the internet to search ‘can I change my vote’ indicating trouble for the Biden campaign
In the aftermath of the final presidential debate, Google trends revealed a spike in people inputting the search term, “can I change my vote.” The fact is this. There are several states in which you can change your vote after casting an early or absentee ballot.
Google Trends data indicated several spikes for searches on and after the last presidential debate on October 22, 2020. The first search phrase was “Hunter Biden China” and the second was “can I change my vote.” The second also saw a correlating spike with the first for a second time.
To change your vote in all of these states requires a voter to go, in-person,
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to the county Supervisor of Elections Office to process required documentation.
In fact, several states have you can change your vote if you have either voted early or voted absentee:
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New York
Connecticut
Mississippi
h/t Jake


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--CNN Reporter says Governments Pays Them to Produce Fake News Stories (2019)

youtu.be/y2AmqbUUXqI THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU LET REFUGEES/MIGRANTS AND ASYLUM SEEKERS INTO YOU ’ RE COUNTRIES !
Former CNN reporter , Amber Lyon blows the lid off the network—exposes that governments around the world pay CNN to write fake news stories.When she started to dig into the reasons behind why CNN would not air her news story she uncovered shocking facts about the network and the Obama administration .
Amber found that CNN is routinely paid by the U.S. government and other foreign government to selectively report and air news stories on events from around the world.In the video @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bahrain ’ s government paid CNN not to report on the violent incident .
They country did not want it getting out that peaceful demonstrators were shot en masse .
And that citizens reported they were brutally tortured by the regime and family members were abducted or disappeared.CNN tried to keep Amber quiet , but she felt a moral obligation to the American people to expose the network and the Obama administration for their role.Amber is now trying to get the real story out of what is going on in the liberal media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never surprising , but it should always be acknowledged and remembered .

youtu.be/y2AmqbUUXqI THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU LET REFUGEES/MIGRANTS AND ASYLUM SEEKERS INTO YOU’RE COUNTRIES! Former CNN reporter, Amber Lyon blows the lid off the network—exposes that governments around the world pay CNN to write fake news stories.When she started to dig into the reasons behind why CNN would not air her news story she uncovered shocking facts about the network and the Obama administration. Amber found that CNN is routinely paid by the U.S. government and other foreign government to selectively report and air news stories on events from around the world.In the video clip Amber explains that she found out Bahrain’s government paid CNN not to report on the violent incident. They country did not want it getting out that peaceful demonstrators were shot en masse. And that citizens reported they were brutally tortured by the regime and family members were abducted or disappeared.CNN tried to keep Amber quiet, but she felt a moral obligation to the American people to expose the network and the Obama administration for their role.Amber is now trying to get the real story out of what is going on in the liberal media. Corruption in the liberal media is never surprising, but it should always be acknowledged and remembered.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR TRUMP CONFIRMED: Only 46 million of 90 million mail in ballots have been recei

LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR TRUMP CONFIRMED: Only 46 million of 90 million mail in ballots have been received

FACT : Joe Biden NEEDS the mail in vote to win this cycle , period .
Everyone knows a massive @ @ @ @ @ show up ON election day .
The vast majority of Biden voters are mailing in @ @ @ @ @ 90 million mail in ballots requested have been received nationwide !
28 of 50 states @ @ @ @ @ mail in ballots to be received BY ELECTION DAY .
Otherwise they are invalid .
@ @ @ @ @ postmarked by election day .
And a few will allow it postmarked AFTER .

FACT: Joe Biden NEEDS the mail in vote to win this cycle, period. Everyone knows a massive amount of Trump voters will show up ON election day. The vast majority of Biden voters are mailing in.
Only 46 million of 90 million mail in ballots requested have been received nationwide!
Just 51%!
28 of 50 states (including Wisconsin) REQUIRE mail in ballots to be received BY ELECTION DAY. Otherwise they are invalid.
Only some allow it if postmarked by election day.
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And a few will allow it postmarked AFTER.
LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR TRUMP CONFIRMED…!
Polls: Trump leads Biden nationally and in Pennsylvania
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Mannarino: The Elusive “Stimulus” Will NOT Help The Economy, It’s Not Even Meant To

Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the @ @ @ @ @ that working on Wall Street was not like the movies , he moved on to @ @ @ @ @ practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant .
He also served in the United States Naval @ @ @ @ @ having attained the rank of Lieutenant .
He is an active trader of the capital @ @ @ @ @ books pertaining to finance , global economics , and equity trading .
Gregory currently hosts @ @ @ @ @ ” on YouTube .
You can find out more about what he offers at his @ @ @

TradersChoice.net, Released on 10/27/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. After realizing that working on Wall Street was not like the movies, he moved on to get a medical degree and practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant. He also served in the United States Naval Reserve Medical Service Corps, having attained the rank of Lieutenant. He is an active trader of the capital markets and has published several books pertaining to finance, global economics, and equity trading. Gregory currently hosts a business day “MarketReport” on YouTube. You can find out more about what he offers at his website Traderschoice.net.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--FEAR: Democrats Send Out Obama WITHOUT Social Distancing, PANIC IN DC

OBAMA : `` When Russia puts bounties on the heads of our soldiers in Afghanistan , the commander-in-chief can ’ @ @ @ @ @ in action .
Joe Biden would never call the men and women of our military @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/JyYVtzpZeh

OBAMA: "When Russia puts bounties on the heads of our soldiers in Afghanistan, the commander-in-chief can’t be MIA: missing in action. Joe Biden would never call the men and women of our military suckers or losers." pic.twitter.com/JyYVtzpZeh
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Poll worker caught on camera marking up mail-in ballot in Germantown, MD. Camera turns away when cam

Poll worker caught on camera marking up mail-in ballot in Germantown, MD. Camera turns away when cameraman realized what this guy is doing.

Yea , who ’ s the City Clerk or authority that even allows writing instruments at a Mail-in Ballot processing @ @ @ @ @ the system to to fail , evil at hand .
You ’ re a dam @ @ @ @ @ ahead of time .
Now its clear for all to see there way ’ s @ @ @ @

Yea, who’s the City Clerk or authority that even allows writing instruments at a Mail-in Ballot processing station.
These people want the system to to fail, evil at hand. You’re a dam racist for calling it out ahead of time. Now its clear for all to see there way’s are being exposed.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--BOOKS ARE NOW BEING BANNED IN EUROPE BECAUSE OF COVID-19

Lucy from Whales called in to report that authorities in her area are now banning the ability to even buy @ @ @ @ @ Our healthy and delicious storable foods are now available with the shortest lead time we @ @ @ @ @ !
https : /…

Lucy from Whales called in to report that authorities in her area are now banning the ability to even buy books during the scamdemic. Our healthy and delicious storable foods are now available with the shortest lead time we’ve had in months! https:/…
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Silver Could Explode Within Weeks, Prepare Now For The Spike

Do you have a flashlight , spare batteries and some duct tape stashed away for home emergencies like power outages or hurricanes ?
Of course you do .
How about 100 ounces of silver coins ?
If not , you should .
In an extreme social or infrastructure breakdown — where banks , ATMs and store scanners are offline — silver coins might be the only way to buy groceries for your family .
This is one of many reasons why sales of silver coins and bullion are set to skyrocket .
The upcoming election and its aftermath could witness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s chaos look downright tame .
We might not even know the winners for several weeks after the election .
Things could get very ugly .
If that happens , shortages will appear and the price of silver could soar to $ 60 per ounce or higher from current levels of about $ 25 per ounce .
Silver Is More Practical Than Gold As you know , I write and speak frequently on the role of gold in the monetary system .
Yet , I rarely discuss silver .
Some assume I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your portfolio .
That ’ s not true .
In fact , in an extreme crisis , silver may be more practical than gold as a medium of exchange .
A gold coin is too valuable to exchange for a basket of groceries , but a silver coin or two is just about right .
Silver is more difficult to analyze than gold because gold has almost no uses except as money .
( Gold is widely used in jewelry , but I consider gold jewelry a hard asset , what I call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the other hand , has many industrial applications .
Silver is both a true commodity and a form of money .
This means that the price of silver may rise or fall based on industrial utilization and the business cycle , independent of monetary factors such as inflation , deflation , and interest rates .
Nevertheless , silver is a form of money ( along with gold , dollars , bitcoin , and euros ) , and always has been .
My expectation is that as savers and investors lose confidence in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn to physical money ( gold and silver ) and non-central bank digital money ( bitcoin and other crypto currencies ) as stores of wealth and a medium of exchange .
This is why I call silver “ the once and future money , ” because silver ’ s role as money in the future is simply a return to silver ’ s traditional role as money throughout history .
In short , silver is as much a monetary metal as gold , and has just as good a pedigree when it comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supported the economies of empires , kingdoms and nation states throughout history .
Before the Renaissance , world money existed as precious metal coins or bullion .
Caesars and kings hoarded gold and silver , dispensed it to their troops , fought over it , and stole it from each other .
Land has been another form of wealth since antiquity .
Still , land is not money because , unlike gold and silver , it can not easily be exchanged , and has no uniform grade .
In the fourteenth century , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worked on a bench or banco in the piazzas of Florence and other city states ) , accepted deposits of gold and silver in exchange for notes which were a promise to return the gold and silver on demand .
The notes were a more convenient form of exchange than physical metal .
They could be transported long distances and redeemed for gold and silver at branches of a Florentine family bank in London or Paris .
Bank notes were not unsecured liabilities , rather warehouse receipts on precious metals .
Renaissance bankers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their custody to other uses , including loans to princes .
This left more notes issued than physical metal in custody .
Bankers relied on the fact that the notes would not all be redeemed at once , and they could recoup the gold and silver from princes and other parties in time to meet redemptions .
Thus was born “ fractional reserve banking ” in which physical metal held is a fraction of paper promises made .
Despite the advent of banking , notes , and fractional reserves , gold and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money .
Princes and merchants still held gold and silver coins in purses and stored precious metals in vaults .
Bullion and paper promises stood side-by-side .
Still , the system was bullion-based .
Silver performed a leading role in this system .
If gold was the first world money , silver was the first world currency .
Silver ’ s popularity as a monetary standard was based on supply-and-demand .
Gold was always scarce , silver more readily available .
Charlemagne invented quantitative easing , or “ QE , ” in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coinage to increase the money supply in his empire .
Spain did the same in the sixteenth century .
Under the U.S. Coinage Act of 1792 , both gold and silver coins were legal tender in the U.S. From 1794 to 1935 , the U.S. Mint issued “ silver dollars ” in various designs .
These were widely circulated and used as money by everyday Americans .
The American dollar was legally defined as one ounce of silver .
The American silver dollar of the late eighteenth century was a copy of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Spanish Empire beginning in the late sixteenth century .
The English name for the Spanish coin was the “ piece of eight , ” ( ocho is the Spanish world for “ eight ” ) because the coin could easily be divided into one-eighth pieces .
Until 2001 stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange were quoted in eighths and sixteenths based on the original Spanish silver coin and its one-eight sections .
The Debasement of U.S. Coinage Silver has most of gold ’ s attractions .
Silver is of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and pleasing to the eye .
After the U.S. made gold possession a crime in 1933 , silver coins circulated freely .
The U.S. minted 90 % solid silver coins until 1964 .
Debasement started in 1965 .
Depending on the particular coin – dimes , quarters , or half-dollars – the silver percentage dropped from 90 % to 40 % , and eventually to zero by the early 1970s .
Since then , U.S. coins in circulation contain copper and nickel .
From antiquity until the mid-twentieth century , citizens of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or silver coins .
Today there are no circulating gold or silver coins .
Such coins as exist are bullion — kept out of sight .
Silver Wins , No Matter Who Wins the Election Silver has had a very good year , which should not surprise you since gold ’ s had a very good year and the two metals generally ( but not always ) track one another .
Silver has backed off a bit from its August high over $ 28 per ounce on July 13 .
But it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today .
Regardless of which party wins the U.S. presidential election in November , the U.S. is set for more fiscal stimulus in 2021 and lots of government spending .
If Joe Biden wins , Democrats will push for free healthcare for all , free healthcare for illegal immigrants , and the Green New Deal .
If President Trump wins , you ’ ll also see a lot more spending .
One thing Trump has proven in his time in office is that he ’ s not a fiscal conservative .
So either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more spending , bigger deficits , more money printing and , eventually more inflation .
The market ’ s anticipation of this outcome , starting in early November , will be a powerful tailwind for silver .
Investors should prepare now , before the spike .

by Jim Rickards via Daily Reckoning
Do you have a flashlight, spare batteries and some duct tape stashed away for home emergencies like power outages or hurricanes? Of course you do. How about 100 ounces of silver coins? If not, you should.
In an extreme social or infrastructure breakdown — where banks, ATMs and store scanners are offline — silver coins might be the only way to buy groceries for your family. This is one of many reasons why sales of silver coins and bullion are set to skyrocket.
The upcoming election and its aftermath could witness social unrest that would make this summer’s chaos look downright tame. We might not even know the winners for several weeks after the election. Things could get very ugly.
If that happens, shortages will appear and the price of silver could soar to $60 per ounce or higher from current levels of about $25 per ounce.
Silver Is More Practical Than Gold
As you know, I write and speak frequently on the role of gold in the monetary system. Yet, I rarely discuss silver. Some assume I dislike silver as a hard asset for your portfolio. That’s not true.
In fact, in an extreme crisis, silver may be more practical than gold as a medium of exchange. A gold coin is too valuable to exchange for a basket of groceries, but a silver coin or two is just about right.
Silver is more difficult to analyze than gold because gold has almost no uses except as money. (Gold is widely used in jewelry, but I consider gold jewelry a hard asset, what I call “wearable wealth.”)
Silver, on the other hand, has many industrial applications. Silver is both a true commodity and a form of money.
This means that the price of silver may rise or fall based on industrial utilization and the business cycle, independent of monetary factors such as inflation, deflation, and interest rates.
Nevertheless, silver is a form of money (along with gold, dollars, bitcoin, and euros), and always has been.
“The Once and Future Money”
My expectation is that as savers and investors lose confidence in central bank money, they will increasingly turn to physical money (gold and silver) and non-central bank digital money (bitcoin and other crypto currencies) as stores of wealth and a medium of exchange.
This is why I call silver “the once and future money,” because silver’s role as money in the future is simply a return to silver’s traditional role as money throughout history.
In short, silver is as much a monetary metal as gold, and has just as good a pedigree when it comes to use in coinage. Silver has supported the economies of empires, kingdoms and nation states throughout history.
Before the Renaissance, world money existed as precious metal coins or bullion. Caesars and kings hoarded gold and silver, dispensed it to their troops, fought over it, and stole it from each other.
Land has been another form of wealth since antiquity. Still, land is not money because, unlike gold and silver, it cannot easily be exchanged, and has no uniform grade.
The Birth of Fractional Reserve Banking
In the fourteenth century, Florentine bankers (called that because they worked on a bench or banco in the piazzas of Florence and other city states), accepted deposits of gold and silver in exchange for notes which were a promise to return the gold and silver on demand.
The notes were a more convenient form of exchange than physical metal. They could be transported long distances and redeemed for gold and silver at branches of a Florentine family bank in London or Paris.
Bank notes were not unsecured liabilities, rather warehouse receipts on precious metals.
Renaissance bankers realized they could put the precious metals in their custody to other uses, including loans to princes. This left more notes issued than physical metal in custody.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bankers relied on the fact that the notes would not all be redeemed at once, and they could recoup the gold and silver from princes and other parties in time to meet redemptions.
Thus was born “fractional reserve banking” in which physical metal held is a fraction of paper promises made.
The First “QE”
Despite the advent of banking, notes, and fractional reserves, gold and silver retained their core role as world money. Princes and merchants still held gold and silver coins in purses and stored precious metals in vaults. Bullion and paper promises stood side-by-side. Still, the system was bullion-based.
Silver performed a leading role in this system. If gold was the first world money, silver was the first world currency.
Silver’s popularity as a monetary standard was based on supply-and-demand. Gold was always scarce, silver more readily available. Charlemagne invented quantitative easing, or “QE,” in the ninth century by substituting silver for gold coinage to increase the money supply in his empire. Spain did the same in the sixteenth century.
Under the U.S. Coinage Act of 1792, both gold and silver coins were legal tender in the U.S. From 1794 to 1935, the U.S. Mint issued “silver dollars” in various designs.
These were widely circulated and used as money by everyday Americans. The American dollar was legally defined as one ounce of silver.
The American silver dollar of the late eighteenth century was a copy of the earlier Spanish Real de a ocho minted by the Spanish Empire beginning in the late sixteenth century.
The English name for the Spanish coin was the “piece of eight,” (ocho is the Spanish world for “eight”) because the coin could easily be divided into one-eighth pieces.
Until 2001 stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange were quoted in eighths and sixteenths based on the original Spanish silver coin and its one-eight sections.
The Debasement of U.S. Coinage
Silver has most of gold’s attractions. Silver is of uniform grade, malleable, relatively scarce, and pleasing to the eye. After the U.S. made gold possession a crime in 1933, silver coins circulated freely. The U.S. minted 90% solid silver coins until 1964. Debasement started in 1965.
Depending on the particular coin – dimes, quarters, or half-dollars – the silver percentage dropped from 90% to 40%, and eventually to zero by the early 1970s. Since then, U.S. coins in circulation contain copper and nickel.
From antiquity until the mid-twentieth century, citizens of even modest means might have some gold or silver coins. Today there are no circulating gold or silver coins. Such coins as exist are bullion — kept out of sight.
Silver Wins, No Matter Who Wins the Election
Silver has had a very good year, which should not surprise you since gold’s had a very good year and the two metals generally (but not always) track one another. Silver has backed off a bit from its August high over $28 per ounce on July 13. But it’s still holding tough around $25 today.
Regardless of which party wins the U.S. presidential election in November, the U.S. is set for more fiscal stimulus in 2021 and lots of government spending. If Joe Biden wins, Democrats will push for free healthcare for all, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and the Green New Deal.
If President Trump wins, you’ll also see a lot more spending. One thing Trump has proven in his time in office is that he’s not a fiscal conservative.
So either way, we’re looking at more spending, bigger deficits, more money printing and, eventually more inflation.
The market’s anticipation of this outcome, starting in early November, will be a powerful tailwind for silver.
Investors should prepare now, before the spike.