investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--Experience is the teacher of all things

Experience is the teacher of all things

COMMENT : You frequently explain that economic understanding can only come from personal experience , not a degree .
In his book , Memories of Summer , the baseball writer Roger Kahn interviews the great Willie Mays in the 1950s , and Mays explains his success : “ … nobody can teach you nothing like you can learn yourself… nobody can write a book that will teach you… you got to learn for yourself and you go do it your way.
” SH REPLY : Yes .
I can write and point out the connections .
But you have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pointed out that your trading LOSSES are more valuable than your wins .
The reason is we all learn from our mistakes unless you are a politician or a leftist who prefers to blame others .
The wins we just pat ourselves on the back and never question was it skill or just luck .
One of my favorite people in history was Julius Caesar ( 100-44BC ) .
He has been the victim of fake news which called him a dictator when he was a man who defended the people against a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Debt Crisis ) .
Ut est rerum omnium magister usus ( “ Experience is the teacher of all things ” or more generally “ experience is the best teacher “ ) is a quote attributed to Julius Caesar in De Bello Civile , the war commentaries of the Civil War .
I was impressed by his writings as a young student as was the case with Marcus Aurelius and his Meditations along with Aristotle and Plato .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: You frequently explain that economic understanding can only come from personal experience, not a degree. In his book, Memories of Summer, the baseball writer Roger Kahn interviews the great Willie Mays in the 1950s, and Mays explains his success: “… nobody can teach you nothing like you can learn yourself… nobody can write a book that will teach you… you got to learn for yourself and you go do it your way.”
SH
REPLY: Yes. I can write and point out the connections. But you have to see them yourself. I have also pointed out that your trading LOSSES are more valuable than your wins. The reason is we all learn from our mistakes unless you are a politician or a leftist who prefers to blame others. The wins we just pat ourselves on the back and never question was it skill or just luck.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
One of my favorite people in history was Julius Caesar (100-44BC). He has been the victim of fake news which called him a dictator when he was a man who defended the people against a corrupt oligarchy (see Anatomy of a Debt Crisis). Ut est rerum omnium magister usus (“Experience is the teacher of all things” or more generally “experience is the best teacher“) is a quote attributed to Julius Caesar in De Bello Civile, the war commentaries of the Civil War.
I was impressed by his writings as a young student as was the case with Marcus Aurelius and his Meditations along with Aristotle and Plato.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--How (and Why) to Support Small Businesses This Christmas

2020 has been a rough year for everyone and the holiday season promises to be different from any in our memory .
times are tough from both the sides of the consumer and the small business owner .
For the first time since I started my website , I won ’ t be writing a new post filled with Amazon Prime links for Christmas gifts .
I won ’ t be recommending things from big box stores or giant corporations .
There are a few exceptions where those purchases do support small business owners and authors , and I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The new round of lockdowns has business owners who were already on thin ice scrambling to survive .
They must now change all their previous marketing strategies to try to take advantage of the busiest shopping time of the year – the fourth quarter .
Here ’ s how you can support small businesses , your favorite websites , authors , artisans , and local folks this year when you do your Christmas shopping .
This year , there are a few products and companies I ’ m recommending for your holiday gift-giving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yourself – I ’ m not judging ! )
• Get Selco and Toby ’ s newest book : SHTF Survival Bootcamp is a paperback textbook from their popular online course of the same name .
When you grab it , send your proof of purchase to books @ theorganicprepper.com and you ’ ll receive an exclusive online course absolutely FREE and ONLY available to buyers of this book ( Learn more here . )
• Take a course : Check out all of our courses right here .
• Become an herbalist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online Herbal Skills Intensive course .
( Use the coupon code Daisy50 to save $ 50 on the price of the course . )
If you aren ’ t familiar with her , Cat is the best-selling author of Prepper ’ s Natural Medicine , among other herbal preparedness books .
• Grab some CBD products : Organica Naturals is a family run business owned by folks I know personally .
Forget the giant facilities and machines – get your CBD directly from people who use the product and have been studying it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 , everything in the store is buy one get one free !
• Get some seeds : Seeds for Generations is a family-run business out of southern Virginia .
( I know this wonderful family , too . )
Check out their products here .
They ’ re having a MASSIVE sale this weekend so jump on it now .
And remember , with the lockdowns , seeds are like solid gold right now , so be sure and stock up for yourself too .
• Check out our PDF books .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ only buy in our online store here .
They ’ re very reasonably priced .
• Find the latest offerings in prepper fiction .
Check out this page to find out what some of my favorite authors have self-published recently .
Your purchases of any of these products help families pay their bills .
They don ’ t help some CEO buy a villa in Italy as a fourth home .
This year has been one in which we ’ ve all had to pivot our businesses to focus our efforts strictly online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us .
Shopping where you live is a great way to keep money in your local economy .
Consider the following : • Shop from local businesses that are struggling to stay afloat .
See if they offer curbside pick-up if local ordinances don ’ t allow you to go in and browse .
• Buy from local folks selling things on Craigslist or Facebook marketplace .
Be sure to meet up with them safely in a public place .
• Look for local courses and instruction – buy shooting lessons , gardening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be re-opening in the new year .
• Get gift certificates from local restaurants , salons , and other businesses One thing to remember – if you are buying something for use in the future , it ’ s an unpleasant thought but you could lose your money .
If the holiday season doesn ’ t go well , some of these businesses may not be around in the future for the use of gift certificates or lessons .
Online shopping is still alive and well .
I ’ ll offer my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and websites with custom items for sale The goal here is to support small businesses , not giant corporations .
So if you go to BigBoxStore.com instead of DebbySmithCrochets.com , you ’ re not really helping the little guys as much .
There are a few exceptions in which large corporations are actually helpful platforms for small businesses .
Because of this , I am by no means suggesting a boycott of Amazon .
Love them or hate them , they ’ ve allowed independent authors to find their audiences and small business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Authors : Amazon along with Kindle offers a way for independent authors to publish our books and reach a wide audience without thousands of dollars of outlay .
They are the least expensive and easiest way for us to offer physical books without going through a traditional publishing company .
Our percentages are far higher , too , than with a traditional publisher .
• Artisans : Amazon Handmade and Etsy both offer platforms where artisans can offer the goods they create to a wider audience .
• Subscription Boxes : Amazon offers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the creations of small business owners .
You can find almost any monthly subscription box you could imagine here .
• “ Ships from Amazon ” : When shopping on Amazon , check to see who the retailers is .
It ’ s listed near the buy button and will look different , depending on if you ’ re shopping on mobile or desktop .
If it says “ Sold by Amazon ” then the product is Amazon ’ s .
If it has a different name there , it ’ s sold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a commission for handling the transaction .
Here ’ s an example – look for the red arrow .
So to be absolutely clear – I ’ m just suggesting you focus your spending on small businesses that truly benefit from your purchases .
Thank you so much for being a visitor to my website .
Your support over the past 8 years has changed my life and the lives of my children .
You ’ ve allowed me to bring in ( and pay ) writers from around the world to share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writers , the income they earn from OP has made an enormous difference .
Please know that even if you ’ ve never purchased anything , just the fact that you visit , read , comment , and share helps us immensely .
Be sure you never miss a post by subscribing to our daily newsletter and get my 101 page PDF , The Prepper ’ s Workbook , absolutely free .
This website will never have a paywall and the information on it will always remain free to anyone with an internet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ad-free experience , check out my Patreon account , where you can subscribe for only $ 5 per month .
Some of you have been with me since I started this website in that tiny cold cabin in the Algonquin Forest , where my blogging journey began .
I never expected that one day , I ’ d be able to say that we ’ ve had more than 25 million visits to The Organic Prepper but here we are , and it ’ s all thanks to our readers .
Whether you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new one , thank you all from the bottom of my heart .

by Daisy Luther
2020 has been a rough year for everyone and the holiday season promises to be different from any in our memory. times are tough from both the sides of the consumer and the small business owner.
For the first time since I started my website, I won’t be writing a new post filled with Amazon Prime links for Christmas gifts. I won’t be recommending things from big box stores or giant corporations. There are a few exceptions where those purchases do support small business owners and authors, and I’ll discuss that in a moment.
The new round of lockdowns has business owners who were already on thin ice scrambling to survive. They must now change all their previous marketing strategies to try to take advantage of the busiest shopping time of the year – the fourth quarter.
Here’s how you can support small businesses, your favorite websites, authors, artisans, and local folks this year when you do your Christmas shopping.
The things I’m personally recommending this year
This year, there are a few products and companies I’m recommending for your holiday gift-giving. (Or buy this stuff for yourself – I’m not judging!)
Your purchases of any of these products help families pay their bills. They don’t help some CEO buy a villa in Italy as a fourth home. This year has been one in which we’ve all had to pivot our businesses to focus our efforts strictly online and your support means the world to us.
Shop locally.
Shopping where you live is a great way to keep money in your local economy. Consider the following:
Shop from local businesses that are struggling to stay afloat. See if they offer curbside pick-up if local ordinances don’t allow you to go in and browse.
Buy from local folks selling things on Craigslist or Facebook marketplace. Be sure to meet up with them safely in a public place.
Look for local courses and instruction – buy shooting lessons, gardening classes, dance lessons – anything that may be re-opening in the new year.
Get gift certificates from local restaurants, salons, and other businesses
One thing to remember – if you are buying something for use in the future, it’s an unpleasant thought but you could lose your money. If the holiday season doesn’t go well, some of these businesses may not be around in the future for the use of gift certificates or lessons.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Shopping online
Online shopping is still alive and well. I’ll offer my own online recommendations below.
Online courses from real people – not giant corporations
Etsy or eBay sellers
Blogs and websites with custom items for sale
The goal here is to support small businesses, not giant corporations. So if you go to BigBoxStore.com instead of DebbySmithCrochets.com, you’re not really helping the little guys as much.
Some notable exceptions
There are a few exceptions in which large corporations are actually helpful platforms for small businesses. Because of this, I am by no means suggesting a boycott of Amazon. Love them or hate them, they’ve allowed independent authors to find their audiences and small business owners to reach more buyers.
Authors: Amazon along with Kindle offers a way for independent authors to publish our books and reach a wide audience without thousands of dollars of outlay. They are the least expensive and easiest way for us to offer physical books without going through a traditional publishing company. Our percentages are far higher, too, than with a traditional publisher.
Amazon along with Kindle offers a way for independent authors to publish our books and reach a wide audience without thousands of dollars of outlay. They are the least expensive and easiest way for us to offer physical books without going through a traditional publishing company. Our percentages are far higher, too, than with a traditional publisher. Artisans: Amazon Handmade and Etsy both offer platforms where artisans can offer the goods they create to a wider audience.
Amazon Handmade and Etsy both offer platforms where artisans can offer the goods they create to a wider audience. Subscription Boxes: Amazon offers a number of subscription boxes that are the creations of small business owners. You can find almost any monthly subscription box you could imagine here.
Amazon offers a number of subscription boxes that are the creations of small business owners. You can find almost any monthly subscription box you could imagine here. “Ships from Amazon”: When shopping on Amazon, check to see who the retailers is. It’s listed near the buy button and will look different, depending on if you’re shopping on mobile or desktop. If it says “Sold by Amazon” then the product is Amazon’s. If it has a different name there, it’s sold by a small business and Amazon gets a commission for handling the transaction. Here’s an example – look for the red arrow.
So to be absolutely clear – I’m just suggesting you focus your spending on small businesses that truly benefit from your purchases.
Thank you.
Thank you so much for being a visitor to my website. Your support over the past 8 years has changed my life and the lives of my children. You’ve allowed me to bring in (and pay) writers from around the world to share their experiences. For some of those writers, the income they earn from OP has made an enormous difference.
Please know that even if you’ve never purchased anything, just the fact that you visit, read, comment, and share helps us immensely. Be sure you never miss a post by subscribing to our daily newsletter and get my 101 page PDF, The Prepper’s Workbook, absolutely free. This website will never have a paywall and the information on it will always remain free to anyone with an internet connection. If you would prefer an ad-free experience, check out my Patreon account, where you can subscribe for only $5 per month.
Some of you have been with me since I started this website in that tiny cold cabin in the Algonquin Forest, where my blogging journey began. I never expected that one day, I’d be able to say that we’ve had more than 25 million visits to The Organic Prepper but here we are, and it’s all thanks to our readers.
Whether you’re an old friend or a new one, thank you all from the bottom of my heart.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--This is why every state need a audit. The USA is becoming Venezuela

How hard can it be to see , even for Democrats ?
?
The voting system is not working .
@ @ @ @ @ the biggest ever in history because of Covid , and it has not worked at @ @ @ @ @ oath are ready to be witness about the voter fraud , and you liberals are @ @ @ @ @ So sad and If Biden was half the man you all think he is , @ @ @ @ @ audit of all voting in these important states .
In Sweden we have paper votes @ @ @ @ @ party , how hard can it be to do the same for Presidential election , @ @ @ @ @ to be on the same ballot on a white paper .
It is so easy @ @ @ @ @ making it so difficult , by design .
This video says it all , why @ @ @ @ @ .
At least some media is awake…

How hard can it be to see, even for Democrats?? The voting system is not working. Votes by post has been the biggest ever in history because of Covid, and it has not worked at all.
Ordinary people under oath are ready to be witness about the voter fraud, and you liberals are just okay with that.
So sad and If Biden was half the man you all think he is, he would be okay with audit of all voting in these important states.
In Sweden we have paper votes with different colour for every party, how hard can it be to do the same for Presidential election, why do every candidate have to be on the same ballot on a white paper.
It is so easy to change but USA/Venezuela is making it so difficult, by design.
This video says it all, why this election is a disaster.
At least some media is awake…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Limpan


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--You were warned: President Trump Goes After Big Tech: “For Purposes of National Security, Section 23

You were warned: President Trump Goes After Big Tech: “For Purposes of National Security, Section 230 Must be Immediately Terminated!

President Trump on Thursday evening went after big tech and said it is time to terminate Section 230 for “ @ @ @ @ @ Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act provides protections for online intermediaries that host or @ @ @ @ @ intermediaries such as Twitter or Facebook must act as a neutral platform in order to @ @ @ @ @ would make them legally responsible for what their users post .
It is clear that @ @ @ @ @ publishers since they are making editorial decisions on what content is allowed to be shared @ @ @ @ @ Trump @ realDonaldTrump Twitter is sending out totally false “ Trends ” that have absolutely @ @ @ @ @ is really trending in the world .
They make it up , and only negative @ @ @ @ @ thing will happen to Twitter as is happening to @ FoxNews daytime .
Also , @ @ @ @

President Trump on Thursday evening went after big tech and said it is time to terminate Section 230 for “purposes of national security.”
Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act provides protections for online intermediaries that host or republish third-party content.
Online intermediaries such as Twitter or Facebook must act as a neutral platform in order to be protected against laws that would make them legally responsible for what their users post.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It is clear that Twitter and Facebook are now publishers since they are making editorial decisions on what content is allowed to be shared by users.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Twitter is sending out totally false “Trends” that have absolutely nothing to do with what is really trending in the world. They make it up, and only negative “stuff”. Same thing will happen to Twitter as is happening to @FoxNews daytime. Also, big Conservative discrimination!
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/president-trump-goes-big-tech-purposes-national-security-section-230-must-immediately-terminated/


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--The market is record short and the global economy is slowing again. Dumb money is going all in, no V

The market is record short and the global economy is slowing again. Dumb money is going all in, no VIX, no Gold, no Bitcoin no USD, no hedges,  nothing. Balls out, all in stocks.

I 'm watching 30 year bond yields very closely .
The market is record short and the global economy is @ @ @ @ @ remains that rates go lower but let 's see .
pic.twitter.com/UoM2wjKILT Dumb money is going @ @ @ @ @ , no Gold , no Bitcoin no USD , no hedges , nothing .
Balls @ @ @ @ @ .
This is the place to initiate a Gold position , I did .
t.co/KAMwOtkk3n @ @ @ @ @ leverage ?
Just like hedge funds ?
Say it isn ’ t so , Randy @ @ @ @ @ market in history is approaching month end with the lowest monthly options/equity put/call ratio ever @ @ @ @ @ most long positioned ever .
It is literally the most one sided and most complacent @ @ @ @

I'm watching 30 year bond yields very closely. The market is record short and the global economy is slowing again. My view remains that rates go lower but let's see. pic.twitter.com/UoM2wjKILT
Dumb money is going all in, no VIX, no Gold, no Bitcoin no USD, no hedges, nothing. Balls out, all in stocks. This is the place to initiate a Gold position, I did. t.co/KAMwOtkk3n
This market? At record leverage? Just like hedge funds? Say it isn’t so, Randy! t.co/WCMgXD7EcE
The most valued market in history is approaching month end with the lowest monthly options/equity put/call ratio ever as asset managers are the most long positioned ever.
It is literally the most one sided and most complacent market ever. pic.twitter.com/Puv7T7AJvA
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) November 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--We need more inflation.

We need more inflation.

As shown below , inflation has reduced purchasing power for the last 80 years , unless of course you magically @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/AwhMN1ttgX

As shown below, inflation has reduced purchasing power for the last 80 years, unless of course you magically adjust prices using hedonics. pic.twitter.com/AwhMN1ttgX
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) November 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--Key Takeaways from the Airbnb IPO filing

I work as a PM at a large tech company and as part of my job it ’ s important for me to understand major technology trends and tech companies .
I put this post together to share some key takeaways I had from looking at Airbnb ’ s S-1 filing .
If you found this post valuable and would like to read more please let me know .
I ’ m thinking about writing like this more often if it ’ s something people get value from .
Thanks On Monday November 16th , Airbnb filed to go public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not yet been set , Airbnb looks to be aiming to raise about $ 3 billion dollars at an analyst-estimated valuation of $ 30 billion .
This is up from Airbnb ’ s most recent valuation of $ 18.1 billion in April of this year when it raised a total of $ 2 billion in debt to cope with the Covid-19 crisis .
Airbnb is a remarkable company .
What started in 2007 as 2 friends renting out airbeds in their apartment to attendees of a conference has , 13 years later , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries with over 4 million hosts who have cumulatively earned over $ 110 billion .
In 2019 , there were 327 million nights and experiences booked on Airbnb .
Nobody could have predicted those numbers in 2007 .
Airbnb has defined a brand new travel category and become a standard part of our vocabulary , much like Zoom .
As they state in their S-1 : But , while Airbnb is clearly a remarkable company , is it a good investment ?
That ’ s the question that this post aims to answer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an analysis of Airbnb ’ s recent S-1 filing : The Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on Airbnb ’ s business .
Gross booking value ( GBV ) in March was down 127 % .
Due to cancellations and alterations , Airbnb actually lost money on bookings in March .
However by August , GBV was only down 14 % when compared to August 2019 .
This impressive recovery shows how strong Airbnb ’ s business is .
For the 9 months ending September 2020 , Airbnb posted a revenue drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first 9 months of 2019 .
While this is a concern , the cut to sales and marketing expenditure at the same time points to a business that is quite resilient – In the same time period that revenue dropped by 32 % , Airbnb cut its sales and marketing spend by a massive 54 % .
The ability to cut sales and marketing spend by over half while only having a revenue drop of 32 % ( in the middle of a pandemic ) points to a business that is highly resilient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If we compare the gross nights and experiences booked on Airbnb to Airbnb ’ s gross booking value ( GBV ) , we see an interesting pattern .
Gross bookings in August are down 28 % YoY while GBV is only down 14 % .
This means that the average spend on an individual booking has actually trended up this year !
To further validate this point , long-term stays were down only 13 % this year , compared to 81 % for short-term stays .
There was actually YoY growth for long-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ importance of long-term stays is highlighted by the quote below : Long-term stays are a distinct competitive advantage for Airbnb and if trends continue they could drive a lot of long-term growth .
Airbnb has also highlighted a number of other categories that have performed particularly well this year .
In particular , ‘ domestic travel ’ , ‘ short-distance travel ’ and ‘ travel outside top 20 cities ’ have performed very well .
For example , short-distance travel grew a whopping 38 % YoY in September .
No doubt these trends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
However , it is unlikely they will reverse fully .
If these trends maintain decent momentum , they represent a shift in travel patterns that uniquely benefits Airbnb and provides a significant competitive advantage .
One of the most striking figures from the S-1 is that 91 % of Airbnb ’ s traffic is organic , coming from direct and unpaid channels .
This is very impressive .
Airbnb has built an incredible brand and clearly has strong brand loyalty .
Customer engagement and retention are also impressively high on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of guests left a review of their stay .
69 % of revenue generate in 2019 was from repeat guests .
Airbnb also has very strong retention among their host community .
In 2019 , 84 % of revenue came from people who had hosted in 2018 .
This shows that the majority of hosts are staying on the platform and continuing to earn money through Airbnb .
Airbnb ’ s revenue growth has slowed over the last three years .
It grew by 32 % in 2019 , down from 43 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never great , 32 % is quite healthy .
It remains to be seen what the impacts of Covid-19 will be on growth over the next few years .
However , there seem to be big opportunities for international expansion which would allow Airbnb to maintain ( and possibly improve ) its growth rate .
Airbnb believes that its total addressable market is a whopping $ 3.4 trillion .
While you can always take these predictions with a grain of salt , it is clear that Airbnb believes that a big part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Europe .
They highlight international expansion as a key part of their long-term growth strategy : There are some encouraging signs that Airbnb has the potential to grow their international markets .
They operate in 220 countries and importantly , 86 % of their hosts are outside the US .
International markets have also seen an increase in GBV and average nights per booking .
In fact , Latin America has the highest average nights per booking of any region , at 4.1 nights .
( North America is 3.7 ) The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ host presence in international markets ( 86 % ) and changing consumption patterns towards longer stays means that Airbnb has the potential to unlock a lot of value as they focus on international markets .
Regulation is a big risk for Airbnb .
70 % of the company ’ s top 200 largest cities ( by revenue ) have implemented some form of regulation on short-term stays .
For example , London has put a 90 nights per year limit on short term stays for properties without specific planning permission to do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S-1 that the evolving regulatory situation is a cause for concern : Airbnb makes sure to point out that they are not dependant on any one city , region or country .
For example , the US is the only country that represents over 10 % of Airbnb ’ s revenue .
While this may be true , the evolving regulatory environment does not seem to be going in Airbnb ’ s favour .
Please note that this is just an explanation of investing decisions for my personal portfolio and not a recommendation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To make a decision on whether or not to invest in Airbnb , I believe there are 3 important questions to answer : • What year should conclusions be based on ?
Although there are regulatory concerns , based on the above analysis I believe that Airbnb has strong upside potential .
• What year should conclusions be based on ?
The Airbnb S-1 is primarily focused on 2019 numbers .
Airbnb believes that 2019 figures are the fairest reflection of the strength of the business .
They believe that 2020 is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will rebound quickly post-covid .
Investors should come up with their own conclusion on that but I agree with Airbnb that 2019 is a fair reflection of the business .
• What is a fair valuation for Airbnb ?
This is where things get tricky .
In some ways , Airbnb doesn ’ t have any direct competitors to compare against .
They are similar to both OTAs ( online travel agents ) and hotel chains like Hilton but obviously quite different in a number of ways too .
In my opinion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While not exactly the same , Airbnb and Uber have a lot of similarities .
They are both semi-marketplaces ( Airbnb is closer to a true marketplace ) .
Uber connects drivers with riders while Airbnb connects hosts with guests .
They have a similar business model in that they both take a % of each transaction on their platform .
Obviously there are quite a few differences .
In particular , Uber drivers are far more commoditised than Airbnb hosts .
Uber also has more direct competition ( Lyft ) .
Looking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Uber is currently priced at roughly 6.33 times 2019 revenue .
If we go with the analyst expected valuation of $ 30 billion , Airbnb would be valued at roughly 6 times 2019 revenue .
Uber grew revenue 26 % YoY in 2019 while Airbnb grew 32 % .
With all of this in mind and particularly considering that Uber ’ s model is less defensible , I believe that the analyst-estimated $ 30 billion valuation represents a very good price for Airbnb .
My plan is to wait and see what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are wrong and the stock pops above $ 40/50 billion , I won ’ t be purchasing and will wait to see what Airbnb ’ s performance is like over the next few months .
If the stock settles at or below $ 30 billion , then I will definitely be adding it to my portfolio .
Are you considering investing in Airbnb ?
What did you think of my analysis above ?
Anything I missed ?
Let me know your thoughts .
And please let me know if you found this post @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Thanks Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by tadhg8811
Hi everyone,
I work as a PM at a large tech company and as part of my job it’s important for me to understand major technology trends and tech companies. I put this post together to share some key takeaways I had from looking at Airbnb’s S-1 filing. If you found this post valuable and would like to read more please let me know. I’m thinking about writing like this more often if it’s something people get value from. Thanks
On Monday November 16th, Airbnb filed to go public. While a target IPO price has not yet been set, Airbnb looks to be aiming to raise about $3 billion dollars at an analyst-estimated valuation of $30 billion. This is up from Airbnb’s most recent valuation of $18.1 billion in April of this year when it raised a total of $2 billion in debt to cope with the Covid-19 crisis.
Airbnb is a remarkable company. What started in 2007 as 2 friends renting out airbeds in their apartment to attendees of a conference has, 13 years later, grown into a company operating in 220 countries with over 4 million hosts who have cumulatively earned over $110 billion. In 2019, there were 327 million nights and experiences booked on Airbnb. Nobody could have predicted those numbers in 2007. Airbnb has defined a brand new travel category and become a standard part of our vocabulary, much like Zoom. As they state in their S-1:
” “Airbnb” has become synonymous with one-of-a-kind travel on a global scale.”
But, while Airbnb is clearly a remarkable company, is it a good investment? That’s the question that this post aims to answer. Here are some key takeaways from an analysis of Airbnb’s recent S-1 filing:
(*Note: In case you’re wondering, an S-1 is the document that a companies files with the SEC when they plan to go public)
Airbnb is a resilient business
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on Airbnb’s business. Gross booking value (GBV) in March was down 127%. Due to cancellations and alterations, Airbnb actually lost money on bookings in March. However by August, GBV was only down 14% when compared to August 2019. This impressive recovery shows how strong Airbnb’s business is.
For the 9 months ending September 2020, Airbnb posted a revenue drop of 32% when compared with the first 9 months of 2019. While this is a concern, the cut to sales and marketing expenditure at the same time points to a business that is quite resilient – In the same time period that revenue dropped by 32%, Airbnb cut its sales and marketing spend by a massive 54%. The ability to cut sales and marketing spend by over half while only having a revenue drop of 32% (in the middle of a pandemic) points to a business that is highly resilient with strong brand and customer loyalty.
Post-Covid travel patterns may benefit Airbnb
If we compare the gross nights and experiences booked on Airbnb to Airbnb’s gross booking value (GBV), we see an interesting pattern. Gross bookings in August are down 28% YoY while GBV is only down 14%. This means that the average spend on an individual booking has actually trended up this year! To further validate this point, long-term stays were down only 13% this year, compared to 81% for short-term stays. There was actually YoY growth for long-term stays from May to September. The importance of long-term stays is highlighted by the quote below:
“We believe the long-term stays category represents a different use case than leisure travel, and as a result, was not as impacted as dramatically by COVID-19.”
Long-term stays are a distinct competitive advantage for Airbnb and if trends continue they could drive a lot of long-term growth.
Airbnb has also highlighted a number of other categories that have performed particularly well this year. In particular, ‘domestic travel’, ‘short-distance travel’ and ‘travel outside top 20 cities’ have performed very well. For example, short-distance travel grew a whopping 38% YoY in September.
No doubt these trends will reverse somewhat as we exit the pandemic. However, it is unlikely they will reverse fully. If these trends maintain decent momentum, they represent a shift in travel patterns that uniquely benefits Airbnb and provides a significant competitive advantage.
Strong customer retention and brand loyalty
One of the most striking figures from the S-1 is that 91% of Airbnb’s traffic is organic, coming from direct and unpaid channels. This is very impressive. Airbnb has built an incredible brand and clearly has strong brand loyalty.
“Our strategy is to increase brand marketing and use the strength of our brand to attract more guests via direct or unpaid channels and to decrease our performance marketing spend relative to 2019.”
Customer engagement and retention are also impressively high on the platform. In 2019, 68% of guests left a review of their stay. 69% of revenue generate in 2019 was from repeat guests.
Airbnb also has very strong retention among their host community. In 2019, 84% of revenue came from people who had hosted in 2018. This shows that the majority of hosts are staying on the platform and continuing to earn money through Airbnb.
International expansion is a big opportunity
Airbnb’s revenue growth has slowed over the last three years. It grew by 32% in 2019, down from 43% in 2018. While slowed growth is never great, 32% is quite healthy.
It remains to be seen what the impacts of Covid-19 will be on growth over the next few years. However, there seem to be big opportunities for international expansion which would allow Airbnb to maintain (and possibly improve) its growth rate.
Airbnb believes that its total addressable market is a whopping $3.4 trillion. While you can always take these predictions with a grain of salt, it is clear that Airbnb believes that a big part of this market opportunity lies outside the US and Europe. They highlight international expansion as a key part of their long-term growth strategy:
*“*Expand our global network. We plan to expand our global network in the countries in which we already have a deep presence, as well as to expand into markets where our penetration is lower, such as India, China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and tens of thousands of smaller markets and remote areas around the world.”
There are some encouraging signs that Airbnb has the potential to grow their international markets. They operate in 220 countries and importantly, 86% of their hosts are outside the US. International markets have also seen an increase in GBV and average nights per booking. In fact, Latin America has the highest average nights per booking of any region, at 4.1 nights. (North America is 3.7)
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The strong customer loyalty previously mentioned, significant host presence in international markets (86%) and changing consumption patterns towards longer stays means that Airbnb has the potential to unlock a lot of value as they focus on international markets.
Regulation is a big concern
Regulation is a big risk for Airbnb. 70% of the company’s top 200 largest cities (by revenue) have implemented some form of regulation on short-term stays. For example, London has put a 90 nights per year limit on short term stays for properties without specific planning permission to do so.
Airbnb make it clear in the S-1 that the evolving regulatory situation is a cause for concern:
“We are subject to a wide variety of complex, evolving, and sometimes inconsistent and ambiguous laws and regulations that may adversely impact our operations and discourage hosts and guests from using our platform, and that could cause us to incur significant liabilities including fines and criminal penalties, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.”
Airbnb makes sure to point out that they are not dependant on any one city, region or country. For example, the US is the only country that represents over 10% of Airbnb’s revenue. While this may be true, the evolving regulatory environment does not seem to be going in Airbnb’s favour.
Investment Plan
Please note that this is just an explanation of investing decisions for my personal portfolio and not a recommendation to anyone to buy/sell any stock.
To make a decision on whether or not to invest in Airbnb, I believe there are 3 important questions to answer:
Does Airbnb have good upside potential? What year should conclusions be based on? What is a fair valuation? Does Airbnb have good upside potential?
Although there are regulatory concerns, based on the above analysis I believe that Airbnb has strong upside potential.
What year should conclusions be based on?
The Airbnb S-1 is primarily focused on 2019 numbers. Airbnb believes that 2019 figures are the fairest reflection of the strength of the business. They believe that 2020 is a highly irregular year and that the company will rebound quickly post-covid. Investors should come up with their own conclusion on that but I agree with Airbnb that 2019 is a fair reflection of the business.
What is a fair valuation for Airbnb?
This is where things get tricky. In some ways, Airbnb doesn’t have any direct competitors to compare against. They are similar to both OTAs (online travel agents) and hotel chains like Hilton but obviously quite different in a number of ways too.
In my opinion, an interesting comparison is with Uber. While not exactly the same, Airbnb and Uber have a lot of similarities. They are both semi-marketplaces (Airbnb is closer to a true marketplace). Uber connects drivers with riders while Airbnb connects hosts with guests. They have a similar business model in that they both take a % of each transaction on their platform.
Obviously there are quite a few differences. In particular, Uber drivers are far more commoditised than Airbnb hosts. Uber also has more direct competition (Lyft).
Looking at 2019 figures for the fairest comparison, Uber is currently priced at roughly 6.33 times 2019 revenue. If we go with the analyst expected valuation of $30 billion, Airbnb would be valued at roughly 6 times 2019 revenue. Uber grew revenue 26% YoY in 2019 while Airbnb grew 32%.
With all of this in mind and particularly considering that Uber’s model is less defensible, I believe that the analyst-estimated $30 billion valuation represents a very good price for Airbnb.
What’s my plan?
My plan is to wait and see what happens on IPO day. If analysts are wrong and the stock pops above $40/50 billion, I won’t be purchasing and will wait to see what Airbnb’s performance is like over the next few months. If the stock settles at or below $30 billion, then I will definitely be adding it to my portfolio.
What’s your plan?
Are you considering investing in Airbnb? What did you think of my analysis above? Anything I missed? Let me know your thoughts.
And please let me know if you found this post valuable and would like to read more. Thanks
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--Thanksgiving Day: reasons to believe from the Federal Reserve.

What a fine thing indeed is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee .
First up , “ committee ” is an understatement : the list of attendees is bigger than the average football crowd .
I assume they socially-distance , so Lord knows where they meet – Yankee Stadium perhaps , or maybe the Hollywood Bowl .
There are Big Cheeses all the way down to little shrimps – Governors , Assistants , Secretaries , Deputy Secretaries , Assistant Secretaries , a secretary to the office of the Secretaries , General and Deputy Counsels , grown up Economists and Assistant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accountants , Gubernatorial secretaries , Operations Directors , Regulatory Directors , Statistics directors , Stability Directors , and even Supervisory Directors to keep an eye on what all the other directors do .
Advisers , Special Advisers , Deputy Advisers , Assistant Advisers , Asset Purchase Advisers , Monetary Advisers , and almost certainly some advisory advisers who sit on the window ledges outside and occasionally get invited in to advise in a purely advisory capacity on the dangers of clinging to the levers of power some forty storeys up .
Senior monetary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Fed vice Presidents from Cleveland , Richmond , Kansas City , San Francisco , St. Louis , Chicago , Philadelphia , Atlanta , Boston , New York , New York , New York , New York and New York .
That ’ s it .
The startling ommissions are Las Vegas and Hollywood – which , given that ’ s where all the insane gambling games and unlikely fiction are dreamed up , does strike the layman as rather odd .
So Thursday being Thanksgiving Day in the US , the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for all the job creation it represents , and to take the counsel of advisers , the advice of associates , an update on operations for gall sydrome among accountants , solid testimony from stability directors , an audit of doors closed to the media in open markets , lots of invoices from counsellors and of course ( just as a filler ) some gossip about vice among the Presidents and new thoughts on how to keep the Dow at 29,872.42 , given the global economy today consists of one Jewish deli in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The System Open Market Account manager discussed developments in financial markets , announcing that financial conditions were little changed and remained accommodative .
There was some debate as to the meaning of accommodative in this context , but the System Open Market Account manager reassured his audience that the distraction of millions of Covid cases causing chaos in left-luggage offices across Europe was more than enough to ensure accommodation : cases causing chaos , he opined , had a strong push to the upside of Covid19 and Q1 , 2021 – even greater @ @ @ @ @ @ @ game shows like Pets Win Prizes .
The System Open Market Account manager closed with a demand to know why his position had not been recognised in the published list of attendees , and the secretary to the advisory Human resources sub-committee on petulance promised to look into the matter .
The Federal Reserve ’ s balance sheet increased modestly over the intermeeting period to $ 7.2 trillion , although the total amount did involve the use of twelve noughts and suggest a need for unfeasibly wide chequebooks .
Several participants noted the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the amount of additional accommodation that could be provided through increases in the Federal Reserve ’ s asset holdings in light of the low level of longer-term yields , and they expressed concerns that a significant expansion in asset holdings could have unintended consequences .
A long debate then ensued about what the intended consequences might have been in the first place , and these were duly struck from the record at the insistence of special advisers Soros , Gates and Zuckerberg .
Following a debate about the effective lower bound ( ELB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further pointless speculation ensued on bond-buying , with the member from Kansas City yelling , “ We ’ re doomed I tell you – all doomed ” .
But his outburst was interrupted by the maniacal cackle of billiard-ball German Davos observer Herr Schwab , who stroked his long-haired white Persian cat , and observed , “ Goodbye , US Bonds ” .
So Happy Holidays US friends , enjoy the Thanksgiving weekend in the bosom of your families , and remember to give thanks that the Dollar is in the safe hands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ John Ward long ago gave up trying to take fiscal economics and corporate euphemisms seriously .
He lives in the French low-profile rural space where the downside is banal conversation but the vast majority of feet are still attached to the ground .

by John Ward
Jerome H. Powell
What a fine thing indeed is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. First up, “committee” is an understatement: the list of attendees is bigger than the average football crowd. I assume they socially-distance, so Lord knows where they meet – Yankee Stadium perhaps, or maybe the Hollywood Bowl.
There are Big Cheeses all the way down to little shrimps – Governors, Assistants, Secretaries, Deputy Secretaries, Assistant Secretaries, a secretary to the office of the Secretaries, General and Deputy Counsels, grown up Economists and Assistant Economists.
Associate Economists, Open Market accountants, Gubernatorial secretaries, Operations Directors, Regulatory Directors, Statistics directors, Stability Directors, and even Supervisory Directors to keep an eye on what all the other directors do.
Advisers, Special Advisers, Deputy Advisers, Assistant Advisers, Asset Purchase Advisers, Monetary Advisers, and almost certainly some advisory advisers who sit on the window ledges outside and occasionally get invited in to advise in a purely advisory capacity on the dangers of clinging to the levers of power some forty storeys up.
Senior monetary Economists, Lead monetary information managers, and Fed vice Presidents from Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City, San Francisco, St. Louis, Chicago, Philadelphia,
Atlanta, Boston, New York, New York, New York, New York and New York.
That’s it. The startling ommissions are Las Vegas and Hollywood – which, given that’s where all the insane gambling games and unlikely fiction are dreamed up, does strike the layman as rather odd.
So Thursday being Thanksgiving Day in the US, the Fed met earlier this month to give thanks for all the job creation it represents, and to take the counsel of advisers, the advice of associates, an update on operations for gall sydrome among accountants, solid testimony from stability directors, an audit of doors closed to the media in open markets, lots of invoices from counsellors and of course (just as a filler) some gossip about vice among the Presidents and new thoughts on how to keep the Dow at 29,872.42, given the global economy today consists of one Jewish deli in Taiwan selling heavily discounted Pfizer vaccines.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The System Open Market Account manager discussed developments in financial markets, announcing that financial conditions were little changed and remained accommodative. There was some debate as to the meaning of accommodative in this context, but the System Open Market Account manager reassured his audience that the distraction of millions of Covid cases causing chaos in left-luggage offices across Europe was more than enough to ensure accommodation: cases causing chaos, he opined, had a strong push to the upside of Covid19 and Q1, 2021 – even greater, in fact, than that of game shows like Pets Win Prizes.
The System Open Market Account manager closed with a demand to know why his position had not been recognised in the published list of attendees, and the secretary to the advisory Human resources sub-committee on petulance promised to look into the matter.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased modestly over the intermeeting period to $7.2 trillion, although the total amount did involve the use of twelve noughts and suggest a need for unfeasibly wide chequebooks.
Several participants noted the possibility that there may be limits to the amount of additional accommodation that could be provided through increases in the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings in light of the low level of longer-term yields, and they expressed concerns that a significant expansion in asset holdings could have unintended consequences. A long debate then ensued about what the intended consequences might have been in the first place, and these were duly struck from the record at the insistence of special advisers Soros, Gates and Zuckerberg.
Following a debate about the effective lower bound (ELB) and whatTF it might be, further pointless speculation ensued on bond-buying, with the member from Kansas City yelling, “We’re doomed I tell you – all doomed”. But his outburst was interrupted by the maniacal cackle of billiard-ball German Davos observer Herr Schwab, who stroked his long-haired white Persian cat, and observed, “Goodbye, US Bonds”.
So Happy Holidays US friends, enjoy the Thanksgiving weekend in the bosom of your families, and remember to give thanks that the Dollar is in the safe hands of a huge flock of Turkeys.
John Ward long ago gave up trying to take fiscal economics and corporate euphemisms seriously. He lives in the French low-profile rural space where the downside is banal conversation but the vast majority of feet are still attached to the ground.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--Covid Is Not The Threat

Covid Is Not The Threat

Covid Is Not The Threat Covid is a real virus .
It is a threat to a small minority of the population—primarily people with poor immune systems and comorbidities .
There are inexpensive ways of boosting immune systems with supplements , such as zinc , vitimans C and D3 , Beta Glucan , and NAC .
But public health officials have not educated the public about the value of supplements in the Covid battle .
The reason is that so-called public health officials are shills for Big Pharma ’ s profits , and Big Pharma regards good immune systems as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also two effective , safe , and inexpensive cures for Covid .
One is the combination of hydroxychloroquine ( HCQ ) , azithromycin , and zinc .
The other is the combination of ivermectin , azithromycin , and zinc .
See : www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/11/23/effective-treatment-and-prevention-is-available-for-covid-19/ The use of these known cures has been blocked by public health officials , such as Tony Fauci of the National Institute of Health .
Again , the reason is Big Pharma ’ s profits .
The use of these effective cures negates the profit opportunity of a new vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatment while we wait for a vaccine that some experts worry will be more dangerous than Covid—principia-scientific.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-covid19-vaccine-should-be-avoided-at-all-cost/ .
Keeping Covid alive as a threat serves other harmful purposes .
As I wrote on November 13 , the main threat from Covid is not the disease—www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/11/13/the-main-threat-from-covid-is-not-the-disease/ .
When Covid subsides as a threat , the increased powers of government over citizens will remain .
In Europe and in parts of the US , it is clear that the people understand that the lockdowns and mask rules are a bigger threat to them than Covid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protests , which are spreading elsewhere in Europe—off-guardian.org/2020/11/19/anti-lockdown-protests-all-across-europe/ .
Klaus Madersbacher says Germans have memories of where the use of arbitrary power leads .
Unlike the American “ anti-fascist ” Antifa and BLM movements which conduct kristallnachts against white businesses , a real anti-fascist movement in Germany fights against the lockdown : www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/11/23/germans-stand-up-to-the-lockdown/ In Huntington Beach , California , there were protests early Sunday morning against the Democrat governor ’ s curfew—www.zerohedge.com/political/burn-mask-burn-mask-huntington-beach-protesters-march-defiance-californias-new-curfew .
Sheriffs in five California counties with a population of 17,250,000 people refuse to enforce the nutty governor ’ s curfew—www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/emeveryem_sheriff_in_los_angeles_region_refusing_to_enforce_gavin_newsoms_covid_curfew.html @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any excuse to exercise power , are backing away from enforcing ineffective but intrusive Covid rules .
Just as the California sheriffs are declining , the police chief in Leipzig , Germany , said that there is no point in using the police to fight a pandemic .
The only reason that the “ pandemic ” continues is that Western public health officials are financially tied in one way or another with Big Pharma , and public health officials are using their positions in the interest of these financial connections .

by Paul Craig Roberts via PaulCraigRoberts.org
Covid Is Not The Threat
Paul Craig Roberts
Covid is a real virus. It is a threat to a small minority of the population—primarily people with poor immune systems and comorbidities.
There are inexpensive ways of boosting immune systems with supplements, such as zinc, vitimans C and D3, Beta Glucan, and NAC. But public health officials have not educated the public about the value of supplements in the Covid battle. The reason is that so-called public health officials are shills for Big Pharma’s profits, and Big Pharma regards good immune systems as a hindrence to profits.
There are also two effective, safe, and inexpensive cures for Covid. One is the combination of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), azithromycin, and zinc. The other is the combination of ivermectin, azithromycin, and zinc. See: www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/11/23/effective-treatment-and-prevention-is-available-for-covid-19/
The use of these known cures has been blocked by public health officials, such as Tony Fauci of the National Institute of Health. Again, the reason is Big Pharma’s profits. The use of these effective cures negates the profit opportunity of a new vaccine.
So many have died by denying treatment while we wait for a vaccine that some experts worry will be more dangerous than Covid—principia-scientific.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-covid19-vaccine-should-be-avoided-at-all-cost/ .
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Keeping Covid alive as a threat serves other harmful purposes. As I wrote on November 13, the main threat from Covid is not the disease—www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/11/13/the-main-threat-from-covid-is-not-the-disease/ . When Covid subsides as a threat, the increased powers of government over citizens will remain.
In Europe and in parts of the US, it is clear that the people understand that the lockdowns and mask rules are a bigger threat to them than Covid. In Germany there have been mass protests, which are spreading elsewhere in Europe—off-guardian.org/2020/11/19/anti-lockdown-protests-all-across-europe/ .
Klaus Madersbacher says Germans have memories of where the use of arbitrary power leads. Unlike the American “anti-fascist” Antifa and BLM movements which conduct kristallnachts against white businesses, a real anti-fascist movement in Germany fights against the lockdown: www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/11/23/germans-stand-up-to-the-lockdown/
In Huntington Beach, California, there were protests early Sunday morning against the Democrat governor’s curfew—www.zerohedge.com/political/burn-mask-burn-mask-huntington-beach-protesters-march-defiance-californias-new-curfew .
Sheriffs in five California counties with a population of 17,250,000 people refuse to enforce the nutty governor’s curfew—www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/emeveryem_sheriff_in_los_angeles_region_refusing_to_enforce_gavin_newsoms_covid_curfew.html .
Even the police, who welcome any excuse to exercise power, are backing away from enforcing ineffective but intrusive Covid rules. Just as the California sheriffs are declining, the police chief in Leipzig, Germany, said that there is no point in using the police to fight a pandemic.
The only reason that the “pandemic” continues is that Western public health officials are financially tied in one way or another with Big Pharma, and public health officials are using their positions in the interest of these financial connections.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--Even when looking at the Corona numbers in the worst possible way the human immune system alone is 9

Even when looking at the Corona numbers in the worst possible way the human immune system alone is 97.96% effective.

Even when looking at the numbers in the worst possible way , 269,555 deaths with Corona/Covid-19 on death certificate is @ @ @ @ @ the total tested positive ) .
Meaning the human immune system is 97.97 % effective @ @ @ @ @ any reason to have a vaccine , it ’ s going to need to be @ @ @ @ @ , with no side effects .
Otherwise , there is no point at all in @ @ @ @ @ less effective than the human immune system is anyway .
if there are side effects @ @ @ @ @ It would have to be completely not worth it .
Can a vaccine ever beat @ @ @ @ @ side effects ?

Even when looking at the numbers in the worst possible way, 269,555 deaths with Corona/Covid-19 on death certificate is 2.03% of 13,247,756 (the total tested positive). Meaning the human immune system is 97.97% effective.
For there to be any reason to have a vaccine, it’s going to need to be more than 97.97% effective, with no side effects.
Otherwise, there is no point at all in a vaccine that’s less effective than the human immune system is anyway. if there are side effects too, to it. It would have to be completely not worth it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Can a vaccine ever beat 97.97% effectiveness with no side effects?
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--Our vaccine timeline! The vaccine is (almost) ready – big news or already priced in?

The vaccine is ( almost ) ready – big news or already priced in ?

Our vaccine timeline!
The vaccine is (almost) ready – big news or already priced in?
Read the editorial here -> t.co/r3CA9BzXsg pic.twitter.com/WXzzOmYdoP
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) November 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--WHO OWNS BITCOIN ?

WHO OWNS BITCOIN ?

The stringent AML & KYC regulations anticipated for # Bitcoin will not only make Bitcoin less desirable to own , @ @ @ @ @ transact in .
So , even if Bitcoin ever becomes stable enough to actually use @ @ @ @ @ , it would be the most expensive way to pay .

The stringent AML & KYC regulations anticipated for #Bitcoin will not only make Bitcoin less desirable to own, but far more expensive to transact in. So, even if Bitcoin ever becomes stable enough to actually use as a medium of exchange, it would be the most expensive way to pay.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) November 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-27--When the music stops, the party will end quickly

when the music stops, the party will end quickly pic.twitter.com/C3BSosgXuA — Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) November 25, 2020
Record-breaking three week inflows into equity funds, totalling $89bn according to EPFR/BofA. pic.twitter.com/oQnxf9yBM7 — Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg) November 26, 2020
Gold and stocks will both likely crash in 2021 says Harry Dent. — SolidusMax (@SolidusMax) November 26, 2020
Retail favorite stocks are up 80% YTD. Robinhooders outperforming hedge funds 20-to-1 pic.twitter.com/f7e4cWnIxY — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 27, 2020
SLOWER RECOVERIES EACH TIME pic.twitter.com/tkgAWsxQGL — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--It’s Time To Pick A Side

It’s Time To Pick A Side

The market is pricing in an economic recovery after the vaccines go out .
It sounds nice to want to hedge your bet because it ’ s uncertain if the vaccines will get distributed effectively , but that diminishes your return potential .
If you want to make outsized gains , you need to pick a side .
It ’ s perfectly fine to bet against COVID-19 being delt with properly .
You can make money either way if you are right .
You are assured mediocre returns if you hedge , depending on what your time frame is of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you aren ’ t taking much of a risk if you hedge .
By the time COVID-19 is beaten , there will be very little profits to be had in the reopening plays , assuming the market prices it in ahead of time .
You need to take risk to make money .
Of course , the market isn ’ t only impacted by the virus .
Certain companies and macro bets are more sensitive than others .
The table above goes through a few of the potential tailwinds and headwinds the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to worry about monetary policy , fiscal policy , and the cycle .
It all keys off the virus of course .
However , you don ’ t want to take your eye off these factors as well .
It ’ s especially worth reviewing them because we all have better experience dealing with them .
Even if you were wrong about the virus in the spring ( in believing it would be over quickly ) , you still turned a profit on the long side because of help from the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy , and fiscal stimulus .
That ’ s not to ignore the fact that uncertainty over COVID-19 diminished throughout the year which helped boost sentiment .
It ’ s key to know who you are playing against in markets just like in poker .
2020 has been the year of retail investors which means you must also consider what they are thinking ( or not thinking ) .
Our general outlook is for a slowdown from mid-November to the end of February .
Technically , you can argue being cautious is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a recovery in line with how the market is acting , while having a separate macro framework .
Focusing on the potential slowdown is worth it even if the market doesn ’ t care .
It won ’ t be easy to look away from macro for a few months and then come back to it as the economy reopens .
With that being said , the flash November Markit PMI was so good it makes those expecting a slowdown based on declining consumer sentiment and increasing initial jobless claims ( due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is certainly a cyclical upturn for manufacturing even with the spike in COVID-19 cases .
Specifically , the composite index rose from 56.3 to 57.9 which is a 68 month high .
Services activity rose from 56.9 to 57.7 which also was a 68 month high .
As you can see from the chart above , the flash manufacturing PMI rose from 53.4 to 56.7 which is a 74 month high .
The Chief Business Economist at Markit stated , “ The upturn reflected a further strengthening of demand , which in turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rate not previously seen since the survey began in 2009 .
However , the surge in demand and hiring has pushed prices and wages higher.
” This is music to the ears of the Fed and those betting on the reopening of the economy .
Even in the heart of the 3rd wave , employment and inflation are increasing if this data is correct .
There will be a mini-boom in inflation and economic activity in the spring .
The boom will reach higher heights if it starts from a higher level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 % inflation throughout the cycle .
Some firms might start investing in their production capabilities soon to prepare for the reopening which would help the economy recover quicker .
You can ’ t say the economy will be in inning one of the cyclical recovery in the spring if we are already at a 74 month high in the manufacturing PMI .
Of course , PMI data compares sequential changes in activity .
The yearly growth rates in manufacturing and industrial production are still negative .
This low growth rate means there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery to run .
Once the easy comps are lapped , we will see massive yearly growth readings .
The October new single family housing sales report was very good .
There was only a decline from September because of a strong revision .
September new home sales were revised from 959,000 to 1.002 million .
October sales were 999,999 which beat estimates for 975,000 .
That ’ s 22 % yearly growth .
The chart below shows in this recession and subsequent recovery new home sales have gone vertical as this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery .
New home builders are trying to compete with existing homes by building cheaper ones .
The goal is to make houses smaller since millennials are having smaller families .
The median new home price was $ 330,600 which was down 0.3 % sequentially and up only 2.5 % from last year .
That ’ s not a large increase considering the strong demand for housing .
With the higher price growth in existing homes , home owners are generating the biggest benefit from this boom .
Of course , builders are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Their confidence is at a record high .
New home supply is 3.3 months which is a record low .
Demand jumped so quickly , supply couldn ’ t keep up .
That won ’ t be the case in 2021 though as supply is set to spike .
As you can see from the chart above , new homes sold , but not yet started spiked 91.5 % to 385,000 .
Starts are also increasing rapidly .
Builders have strong backlogs , so they can build more without oversaturating the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the vaccines either working or not working if you want to make a profit .
There are no free lunches .
We ’ ve spoken a lot about how the economy could struggle in the lead up to the vaccines being distributed .
However , the Markit PMI from the first half of November hit a 68 month high .
Housing remained on fire as new home sales were up 22 % yearly in October .

by UPFINA
The market is pricing in an economic recovery after the vaccines go out. It sounds nice to want to hedge your bet because it’s uncertain if the vaccines will get distributed effectively, but that diminishes your return potential. If you want to make outsized gains, you need to pick a side. It’s perfectly fine to bet against COVID-19 being delt with properly. You can make money either way if you are right. You are assured mediocre returns if you hedge, depending on what your time frame is of course. That’s logical because you aren’t taking much of a risk if you hedge. By the time COVID-19 is beaten, there will be very little profits to be had in the reopening plays, assuming the market prices it in ahead of time. You need to take risk to make money.
Via @NDR_Research what the US economy faces in '21 pic.twitter.com/siFgBFl7gE — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) November 24, 2020
Of course, the market isn’t only impacted by the virus. Certain companies and macro bets are more sensitive than others. The table above goes through a few of the potential tailwinds and headwinds the market faces. Besides the virus, investors need to worry about monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the cycle. It all keys off the virus of course. However, you don’t want to take your eye off these factors as well. It’s especially worth reviewing them because we all have better experience dealing with them.
Even if you were wrong about the virus in the spring (in believing it would be over quickly), you still turned a profit on the long side because of help from the Fed, changing sentiment, the resiliency of the economy, and fiscal stimulus. That’s not to ignore the fact that uncertainty over COVID-19 diminished throughout the year which helped boost sentiment. It’s key to know who you are playing against in markets just like in poker. 2020 has been the year of retail investors which means you must also consider what they are thinking (or not thinking).
What Slowdown?
Our general outlook is for a slowdown from mid-November to the end of February. Technically, you can argue being cautious is fair because you can make bullish bets on a recovery in line with how the market is acting, while having a separate macro framework. Focusing on the potential slowdown is worth it even if the market doesn’t care. It won’t be easy to look away from macro for a few months and then come back to it as the economy reopens.
Markit's Flash Manufacturing PMI for the US leaped to its highest reading since 2014.
Read more in tonight's Closer: t.co/iLgm9eJtGw pic.twitter.com/QMciF0u32u — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 23, 2020
With that being said, the flash November Markit PMI was so good it makes those expecting a slowdown based on declining consumer sentiment and increasing initial jobless claims (due to COVID-19) look silly. This is certainly a cyclical upturn for manufacturing even with the spike in COVID-19 cases. Specifically, the composite index rose from 56.3 to 57.9 which is a 68 month high. Services activity rose from 56.9 to 57.7 which also was a 68 month high. As you can see from the chart above, the flash manufacturing PMI rose from 53.4 to 56.7 which is a 74 month high.
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The Chief Business Economist at Markit stated, “The upturn reflected a further strengthening of demand, which in turn encouraged firms to take on staff at a rate not previously seen since the survey began in 2009. However, the surge in demand and hiring has pushed prices and wages higher.” This is music to the ears of the Fed and those betting on the reopening of the economy. Even in the heart of the 3rd wave, employment and inflation are increasing if this data is correct. There will be a mini-boom in inflation and economic activity in the spring. The boom will reach higher heights if it starts from a higher level. The Fed is still pushing for 2% inflation throughout the cycle.
Some firms might start investing in their production capabilities soon to prepare for the reopening which would help the economy recover quicker. You can’t say the economy will be in inning one of the cyclical recovery in the spring if we are already at a 74 month high in the manufacturing PMI. Of course, PMI data compares sequential changes in activity. The yearly growth rates in manufacturing and industrial production are still negative. This low growth rate means there is plenty of room for the cyclical recovery to run. Once the easy comps are lapped, we will see massive yearly growth readings.
More Good Housing News
The October new single family housing sales report was very good. There was only a decline from September because of a strong revision. September new home sales were revised from 959,000 to 1.002 million. October sales were 999,999 which beat estimates for 975,000. That’s 22% yearly growth. The chart below shows in this recession and subsequent recovery new home sales have gone vertical as this is the good part of the K-shaped economic recovery.
New Home Sales Down 0.3% in October t.co/Ux6QqalZZV pic.twitter.com/wLD8NhvsdH — Jill Mislinski (@JillMislinski) November 25, 2020
New home builders are trying to compete with existing homes by building cheaper ones. The goal is to make houses smaller since millennials are having smaller families. The median new home price was $330,600 which was down 0.3% sequentially and up only 2.5% from last year. That’s not a large increase considering the strong demand for housing. With the higher price growth in existing homes, home owners are generating the biggest benefit from this boom.
New homes sold but not yet started surged 91.5% over the last year to 385,000 units SAAR, a cycle high. Importantly, single-family home starts have not climbed nearly as much, which implies there is room for construction to continue climbing. Builder backlogs remain substantial. pic.twitter.com/Z44ffFVCzS — RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) November 25, 2020
Of course, builders are doing very well as supply is low. Their confidence is at a record high. New home supply is 3.3 months which is a record low. Demand jumped so quickly, supply couldn’t keep up. That won’t be the case in 2021 though as supply is set to spike. As you can see from the chart above, new homes sold, but not yet started spiked 91.5% to 385,000. Starts are also increasing rapidly. Builders have strong backlogs, so they can build more without oversaturating the market.
Conclusion
You need to make a bet on the vaccines either working or not working if you want to make a profit. There are no free lunches. We’ve spoken a lot about how the economy could struggle in the lead up to the vaccines being distributed. However, the Markit PMI from the first half of November hit a 68 month high. Housing remained on fire as new home sales were up 22% yearly in October.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--Why Gold Prices Could Be Set For Another Rally

Gold plunged below $ 1,800 .
What does this imply for the gold market ?
This week hasn ’ t been great for gold .
The price of the yellow metal plunged then from $ 1,840 to $ 1,780 .
Actually , November was an awful month for gold prices , which dropped from a local peak of $ 1,941 .
So , what happened ?
Well , it seems that the positive news of the vaccines eliminated the negative tail-risk related to the pandemic .
In consequence , the safe-haven demand for gold declined .
On the other hand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recently as investors increased their risk appetites .
Moreover , the elections results also reduced the uncertainty in the marketplace .
In other words , the economic outlook is improving as the uncertainty clouds begin to part .
Indeed , this week President-elect Joe Biden announced the beginning of a formal transition of power from Trump ’ s administration to his .
Biden also started to announce nominations for top positions , which served to reduce the risk that a contested election had for uncertainty among investors .
In particular , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former Fed Chief Janet Yellen to become the next Treasury secretary .
Investors know her and trust her , so they welcomed the possibility of her nomination for a key position in the new administration .
Indeed , Yellen is well-known and well-respected , while having the knowledge and skills necessary for the position ( although she has more experience in monetary policy than fiscal policy ) .
Moreover , Yellen , who is seen as a dovish person , is believed to be supportive of bigger government economic aid in order to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus crisis .
Actually , she has for some time been calling for increased government spending to help combat the recession and has always been concerned about the labor markets , low participation rates and high unemployment .
As well , as the former Fed Chief , Yellen will closely cooperate with the US central bank and will listen to the Fed ’ s calls for a fiscal package .
She will , therefore , help sustain high government expenditure to assure that the labor market is recovering .
What does it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Well , the recent plunge in the gold market is disturbing .
Some declines are perfectly understandable as the uncertainty related both to the pandemic and elections diminished .
However , the divergence between equities and gold in their reaction to higher odds of more economic stimulus is bad news for the precious metals market .
The return of normalcy in the marketplace and resulting strengthened risk appetite could make gold struggle for a while , especially if the real interest rates increase .
You see , the coronavirus crisis was very deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has to arrive earlier than it did after the Great Recession .
However , I don ’ t think that we will experience a replay of 2013 yet .
The risk appetite increased , but the monetary and fiscal policies are still far from normalization .
There is , of course , the risk of an increase in the interest rates , but the Fed will actively try to suppress the interest rates as long as it will not see inflation above two percent .
However , the long-term fundamentals haven ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually remain deep below zero while the U.S. dollar remains weak .
These factors should support gold prices and the expanding public debt should also help the yellow metal .
Investors also shouldn ’ t forget about the possibility of a debt crisis or the risk of accelerating inflation when the pandemic ends and people increase their spending .
In other words , the ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus should support or even push gold prices higher in the medium to long-run .
It ’ s possible that , when confronted with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed will introduce some changes at its upcoming meeting in December to keep the real interest rates at ultra low levels and to stimulate the economy .

By Arkadiusz Sieron
Gold plunged below $1,800. What does this imply for the gold market? This week hasn’t been great for gold. The price of the yellow metal plunged then from $1,840 to $1,780. Actually, November was an awful month for gold prices, which dropped from a local peak of $1,941.
So, what happened? Well, it seems that the positive news of the vaccines eliminated the negative tail-risk related to the pandemic. In consequence, the safe-haven demand for gold declined. On the other hand, the price of Bitcoin has jumped recently as investors increased their risk appetites. Moreover, the elections results also reduced the uncertainty in the marketplace. In other words, the economic outlook is improving as the uncertainty clouds begin to part.
Indeed, this week President-elect Joe Biden announced the beginning of a formal transition of power from Trump’s administration to his. Biden also started to announce nominations for top positions, which served to reduce the risk that a contested election had for uncertainty among investors.
In particular, there are rumors that Biden is likely to tap former Fed Chief Janet Yellen to become the next Treasury secretary. Investors know her and trust her, so they welcomed the possibility of her nomination for a key position in the new administration. Indeed, Yellen is well-known and well-respected, while having the knowledge and skills necessary for the position (although she has more experience in monetary policy than fiscal policy ).
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Moreover, Yellen, who is seen as a dovish person , is believed to be supportive of bigger government economic aid in order to stimulate the economy and recover quickly from the coronavirus crisis . Actually, she has for some time been calling for increased government spending to help combat the recession and has always been concerned about the labor markets, low participation rates and high unemployment. As well, as the former Fed Chief, Yellen will closely cooperate with the US central bank and will listen to the Fed’s calls for a fiscal package. She will, therefore, help sustain high government expenditure to assure that the labor market is recovering.
Implications for Gold
What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the recent plunge in the gold market is disturbing. Some declines are perfectly understandable as the uncertainty related both to the pandemic and elections diminished. However, the divergence between equities and gold in their reaction to higher odds of more economic stimulus is bad news for the precious metals market. The return of normalcy in the marketplace and resulting strengthened risk appetite could make gold struggle for a while , especially if the real interest rates increase.
You see, the coronavirus crisis was very deep but short-lived and the return to normalcy has to arrive earlier than it did after the Great Recession . However, I don’t think that we will experience a replay of 2013 yet. The risk appetite increased, but the monetary and fiscal policies are still far from normalization. There is, of course, the risk of an increase in the interest rates, but the Fed will actively try to suppress the interest rates as long as it will not see inflation above two percent.
However, the long-term fundamentals haven’t significantly changed. The real interest rates actually remain deep below zero while the U.S. dollar remains weak. These factors should support gold prices and the expanding public debt should also help the yellow metal. Investors also shouldn’t forget about the possibility of a debt crisis or the risk of accelerating inflation when the pandemic ends and people increase their spending.
In other words, the ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus should support or even push gold prices higher in the medium to long-run. It’s possible that, when confronted with the lack of a fiscal package, the Fed will introduce some changes at its upcoming meeting in December to keep the real interest rates at ultra low levels and to stimulate the economy.
By Arkadiusz Sieron via Sunshine Profits


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--David Morgan: Left or Right – Technocracy is Here

The entire financial system is fake as f*ck right now .
All these basically insolvent corporations and the yields on @ @ @ @ @ .

The Morgan Report, Released on 11/27/20
American democracy just isn’t good enough anymore. The past few elections have done more to divide American society than unite it, while trust in government–and democracy itself–is plummeting fast.
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David Morgan is a world-renown precious metals aficionado. He is the creator of TheMorganReport.com, a monthly report that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems and the key reasons for investing in precious metals. A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker all over the globe, David’s educational mission also makes him a prolific author, having penned Get the Skinny on Silver Investing, The Silver Manifesto and, most recently, Second Chance: How to Make and Keep Big Money from the Coming Gold and Silver Shock.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--David Kranzler: Gold Price Signaling Imminent Stimulus

0:00 – Intro 0:57 – Options and Gold 6:36 – Comex Deliveries 11:45 – Who is taking delivery ?
15:00 – Run on the Comex 17:42 – Gold Hypothecation 20:24 – Manipulation 28:50 – Gold Price and Central Banks 31:49 – Stimulus and Gold Higher ?
36:00 – Junior Miners 41:53 – Takeover Targets 44:09 – Junior Considerations 45:58 – Economy is Weak Tom welcomes David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics back to the show .
David discusses how banks like JP Morgan leverage commodity market options via manipulating prices via massive amounts of paper contracts .
This manipulation is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bullion banks and is permitted because it benefits Central Banks .
These shock and awe hits to the market are designed to shake out weak participants .
There are indications that a larger population of retail investors are looking to take physical delivery .
However , many Comex deliveries remain on the exchange for safekeeping .
The Comex encourages this by charging lower fees for storage than other vault services .
If a run on those stored bars was to occur , there could be a default .
David outlines how the miners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the last twenty years .
For example , the HUI index should be much higher based on the price gold has reached .
David discusses what he defines as a junior mining company .
Large-cap companies are waiting until the last minute to decide who they should buy .
A lot of these junior companies with good prospects will be taken over by the majors .
Dave Kranzler spent many years working in various Wall Street jobs .
After business school , he primarily traded junk bonds for a large bank .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Economics and English and he also has an MBA from the University of Chicago , with a concentration in accounting and finance .
Currently , he co-manages a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver .
He has nearly thirty years of experience in studying , researching , analyzing and investing in the financial markets .
His daily articles can be found at his site , Investment Research Dynamics .

Palisades Gold Radio, Released on 11/11/20
0:00 – Intro
0:57 – Options and Gold
6:36 – Comex Deliveries
11:45 – Who is taking delivery?
15:00 – Run on the Comex
17:42 – Gold Hypothecation
20:24 – Manipulation
28:50 – Gold Price and Central Banks
31:49 – Stimulus and Gold Higher?
36:00 – Junior Miners
41:53 – Takeover Targets
44:09 – Junior Considerations
45:58 – Economy is Weak
Tom welcomes David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics back to the show. David discusses how banks like JP Morgan leverage commodity market options via manipulating prices via massive amounts of paper contracts. This manipulation is a source of massive profits for these bullion banks and is permitted because it benefits Central Banks. These shock and awe hits to the market are designed to shake out weak participants.
There are indications that a larger population of retail investors are looking to take physical delivery. However, many Comex deliveries remain on the exchange for safekeeping. The Comex encourages this by charging lower fees for storage than other vault services. If a run on those stored bars was to occur, there could be a default.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
David outlines how the miners are cheaper now than at any point in the last twenty years. For example, the HUI index should be much higher based on the price gold has reached.
David discusses what he defines as a junior mining company. Large-cap companies are waiting until the last minute to decide who they should buy. A lot of these junior companies with good prospects will be taken over by the majors.
Dave Kranzler spent many years working in various Wall Street jobs. After business school, he primarily traded junk bonds for a large bank. Dave graduated from Oberlin College with majors in Economics and English and he also has an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently, he co-manages a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver. He has nearly thirty years of experience in studying, researching, analyzing and investing in the financial markets. His daily articles can be found at his site, Investment Research Dynamics.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--FaceBook and PolitiFact ADMITS that Joe Biden didn’t win!!! They also admit to censoring Candace Owe

FaceBook and PolitiFact ADMITS that Joe Biden didn’t win!!! They also admit to censoring Candace Owens. Why is the media and Big Tech lying to the American people?

What else are these “ Fact Checkers ” actually wrong about ?
Why do they get the unchecked power to @ @ @ @ @

What else are these “Fact Checkers” actually wrong about?
Why do they get the unchecked power to selectively Censor posts? t.co/Zb5At6W6p9
— Benny (@bennyjohnson) November 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--Another CA Dem Bites The Dust

Another CA Dem Bites The Dust

Republicans pick up a 3rd seat in California and projected to “ flip ” one more .
Young Kim , @ @ @ @ @ David Valadao will all be headed to Washington .
Mike Garcia leads , if he @ @ @ @ @ will be Republicans 4th flipped seat following the 2018 blue wave .
t.co/N3wlEFYP6p

Republicans pick up a 3rd seat in California and projected to “flip” one more.
Young Kim, Michelle Steel, and now David Valadao will all be headed to Washington.
Mike Garcia leads, if he wins, that means this will be Republicans 4th flipped seat following the 2018 blue wave. t.co/N3wlEFYP6p
— Patrick 🇺🇸 (@patdmccabe) November 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--Global Debt approaching $280 Trillion by Year-end.

Global debt is exploding thanks to the deliberate COVID-19 manufactured crisis .
It is approaching $ 280 trillion going into @ @ @ @ @ longer call it even debt because at this point , they are just creating the @ @ @ @ @ are buying it .
Moreover , there is ABSOLUTELY no intention whatsoever to pay back @ @ @ @ @ , PM of Canada , who completely misrepresents the debt , and refuses to answer @ @ @ @ @ rates are at historic lows .
They have created this crisis in order to default @ @ @ @ @ Coronavirus scam as their excuse .
I can not stress enough , GET OUT OF @ @ @ @ @ LEVELS – PERIOD !
Meanwhile , Trudeau has committed Canada to the World Economic Forum @ @ @ @ @

by Martin Armstrong
Global debt is exploding thanks to the deliberate COVID-19 manufactured crisis. It is approaching $280 trillion going into year-end. We should no longer call it even debt because at this point, they are just creating the money and the central banks are buying it. Moreover, there is ABSOLUTELY no intention whatsoever to pay back anything.
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Here is Trudeau, PM of Canada, who completely misrepresents the debt, and refuses to answer the question simply saying interest rates are at historic lows. They have created this crisis in order to default on the debt using the Coronavirus scam as their excuse. I cannot stress enough, GET OUT OF ALL GOVERNMENT DEBT ON ALL LEVELS – PERIOD!
Meanwhile, Trudeau has committed Canada to the World Economic Forum’s Agenda 2030.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--Stock Market Deterioration Starting To Align With Extended Senti

This week ’ s video covers two new stock market studies , along with numerous charts , including bitcoin , @ @ @ @ @ S & P 500 , Dow , Global Dow , gold , and bonds .

This week’s video covers two new stock market studies, along with numerous charts, including bitcoin, small caps, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow, Global Dow, gold, and bonds.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--BIS Central Banker Admits EPIC Level Crisis Is the Most Likely Result of Global Mass QE

The stock market has been increasing at an incredible pace .
The stocks that have been doing very well are @ @ @ @ @ .
But also value stocks have seen major inflows .
With interest rates very low @ @ @ @ @ high which includes real estate as well .

The stock market has been increasing at an incredible pace. The stocks that have been doing very well are growth stocks, tech stocks. But also value stocks have seen major inflows. With interest rates very low it has kept the markets high which includes real estate as well.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--YouTube Wants you to Celebrate Un-Thanksgiving…

For Indigenous and Native Americans , the fourth Thursday of November is dedicated to Indigenous history , activism , and @ @ @ @ @ called Unthanksgiving .

For Indigenous and Native Americans, the fourth Thursday of November is dedicated to Indigenous history, activism, and resistance. It’s called Unthanksgiving.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
For Indigenous and Native Americans, the fourth Thursday of November is dedicated to Indigenous history, activism, and resistance. It’s called Unthanksgiving. pic.twitter.com/SS9PGRiUmK — YouTube (@YouTube) November 26, 2020
h/t JF Priest


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--Risk of U.S.-China ‘Shooting War’ Is Growing, Philippine Defense Secretary Warns

The Philippines ’ defense secretary has warned that increasing tensions in the South China Sea between the United States and @ @ @ @ @ into hostilities .
Delfin Lorenzana told a forum in Manila on Wednesday that the rivalry @ @ @ @ @ the overriding security concern of the region and his country would bear the brunt of @ @ @ @ @ ever a shooting war happens , Philippines—which is right smack in the middle of the @ @ @ @ @ likes it or not , ” he told the Stratbase ADR Institute , according to @ @ @ @ @ is the crux of the security challenge in the Indo-Pacific region , the looming confrontation @ @ @ @ @ allies and China for the South China Sea , ” he said .

The Philippines’ defense secretary has warned that increasing tensions in the South China Sea between the United States and China could easily spill over into hostilities.
Delfin Lorenzana told a forum in Manila on Wednesday that the rivalry between Beijing and Washington was the overriding security concern of the region and his country would bear the brunt of any escalation.
“If ever a shooting war happens, Philippines—which is right smack in the middle of the conflict—will be involved whether she likes it or not,” he told the Stratbase ADR Institute, according to The Inquirer.
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“This is the crux of the security challenge in the Indo-Pacific region, the looming confrontation of the U.S. and its allies and China for the South China Sea,” he said.
www.newsweek.com/risk-us-china-shooting-war-growing-philippine-defense-secretary-warns-1550060


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-28--I Bought a Voting Machine Online … Then Hacked It

To demonstrate how vulnerable some of our digital election infrastructure really is , we bought two voting machines from an @ @ @ @ @ than $ 200 .
They were last used in State and Federal elections in 2012 @ @ @ @ @ will we find ?
Elections are under assault across the globe , as we continually @ @ @ @ @ Well-resourced malicious cyber actors have tampered with our elections , whether it ’ s hacking @ @ @ @ @ warfare through social media .

To demonstrate how vulnerable some of our digital election infrastructure really is, we bought two voting machines from an online auction site for less than $200. They were last used in State and Federal elections in 2012 and 2013. What vulnerabilities will we find?
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Elections are under assault across the globe, as we continually see in the news. Well-resourced malicious cyber actors have tampered with our elections, whether it’s hacking voting machines or waging information warfare through social media.