investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--The unemployment rate has far to fall, while the stock market is near its February peak. Could we se

The unemployment rate has far to fall, while the stock market is near its February peak. Could we see the economy improve while stocks are weak?

The level of speculation from retail traders has reached unreal levels .
On Twitter we polled our followers asking if they know someone who just started trading this year and has done very well .
52.6 % of the 76 respondents said they do know someone like that .
Anecdotally , this expansive level of speculation seems to have trickled down to almost everyone who would ever think about opening a brokerage account .
There ’ s nothing wrong with starting out with a free trading platform .
The problem is these new investors have tunnel vision .
They want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t have the perspective that if almost everyone is opening accounts and buying the same stocks , eventually it won ’ t work .
This is what makes investing so tough .
You need to be good at analyzing the fundamentals and understand what other investors are thinking .
You don ’ t want to make a decision based on something that ’ s priced in .
Imagine you owned a stock that was down 35 % because of fears of a dividend cut .
You sold the stock on the news of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rally .
It ’ s extremely difficult to figure out what is priced in .
However , in this case it ’ s quite easy to see the herd is very optimistic .
Herding into and out of stocks creates opportunity .
It is a clear and obvious risk to the current bull run .
Goldman Sachs stated , “ By every metric we track retail activity is the largest since 99/00 .
I have been tracking cross asset flow-of-funds for past 16-years .
I could never imagine typing the following .
Yesterday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , stop-out shorts from institutional investors.
” That last point is referring to stocks like Hertz which rallied after it declared bankruptcy .
For context , Carl Icahn sold his massive stake before the rally .
That shows how difficult timing a market in euphoria can be .
160,280 Robinhood users had shares in Hertz on June 10th .
As you can see in the chart above , the number of new Robinhood accounts exploded during the bear market .
Then the number of new accounts spiked even further during the subsequent rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FOMO investors got involved .
Accounts with positions went from 16.41 million in February 19th to 21.48 million in March 23rd .
Then new users spiked 72 % to 37.13 million .
On the Google Play Store , Robinhood was the 4th most popular finance app .
In a sign of the times , the EBT food stamps app was number 5 .
The economy is struggling while stocks recover .
The working theory is that stocks are at the start of a multi-year bull market because the economy is recovering from its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying the economy isn ’ t the same as the stock market .
It ’ s possible this theory rings true in reverse as the economy recovers while stocks do poorly .
In theory , it makes sense for stocks to rally after recessions , but context matters .
Valuations are important .
You can only say that stocks are at the start of a multi-year bull run if you ignore prices .
Normally stocks are cheap at the start of cycles , but not this time .
We can ’ t just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1933 which has made stocks expensive .
As you can see from the chart below , the S & P 500 5 year normalized PE ratio is 25.5 which is in the 95th percentile .
It ’ s above the average of 19.2 since 1957 .
Stocks do well at the start of cycles because they are cheap .
You can see how cheap the market got at the bottom of the prior recession .
This isn ’ t like that .
We are already seeing high speculation among retail investors .
Which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumer is improving based on Visa and Mastercard usage in May .
We ’ ve also seen that retail traffic growth at brick and mortar stores improved 6.5 points in the first week of June to -69.7 % .
Wendy ’ s same store sales growth bottomed at worse than a 25 % decline in April .
Same store sales growth improved to -1.9 % in the end of May .
The data didn ’ t improve throughout May because there was a beef shortage .
In keeping with that data , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retail tracker anticipates double digit monthly retail sales growth in May .
It has been correlated with core sales growth in the past .
The retail sales report comes out on Tuesday June 16th .
Not all the numbers are rosy as the Redbook yearly same store sales growth reading fell from -7.2 % to -9.7 % which is about the trough of this cycle and the entire 2 decade history of this report .
That ’ s from the week of June 6th .
Those other readings we mentioned ( besides brick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so it ’ s possible both are correct .
It would be bad if sales growth fell back in June .
The chart below makes the point we did in our May BLS article .
In the beginning of this cycle the low hanging fruit jobs will be coming back .
The temporary job loss that quickly turns back into employment is the low hanging fruit .
You can ’ t expect the job creation in May and the expected strong creation in June to continue .
Next is phase 2 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t get their jobs back and hiring picks up gradually .
Phase 1 growth is all about reopening .
It ’ s a quick jolt that isn ’ t sustainable .
Most indicators show retail sales growth is coming back .
Currently , the economy and stock market are detached because stocks are doing well , while the economy is still in shambles despite its increase off the bottom .
The unemployment rate has far to fall , while the stock market is near its February peak .
Because of the sheer speculation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reversal of this situation as the economy looks better and stocks are weak .
Stocks are too expensive especially if your account for the potential corporate tax increase .

by UPFINA
The level of speculation from retail traders has reached unreal levels. On Twitter we polled our followers asking if they know someone who just started trading this year and has done very well. 52.6% of the 76 respondents said they do know someone like that. Anecdotally, this expansive level of speculation seems to have trickled down to almost everyone who would ever think about opening a brokerage account. There’s nothing wrong with starting out with a free trading platform. The problem is these new investors have tunnel vision. They want to make money. They don’t have the perspective that if almost everyone is opening accounts and buying the same stocks, eventually it won’t work.
This is what makes investing so tough. You need to be good at analyzing the fundamentals and understand what other investors are thinking. You don’t want to make a decision based on something that’s priced in. Imagine you owned a stock that was down 35% because of fears of a dividend cut. You sold the stock on the news of the cut only to see it subsequently rally. It’s extremely difficult to figure out what is priced in.
Goldman Compares This To 1999
However, in this case it’s quite easy to see the herd is very optimistic. Herding into and out of stocks creates opportunity. It is a clear and obvious risk to the current bull run. Goldman Sachs stated, “By every metric we track retail activity is the largest since 99/00. I have been tracking cross asset flow-of-funds for past 16-years. I could never imagine typing the following. Yesterday we saw retail, message board traders, stop-out shorts from institutional investors.” That last point is referring to stocks like Hertz which rallied after it declared bankruptcy. For context, Carl Icahn sold his massive stake before the rally. That shows how difficult timing a market in euphoria can be. 160,280 Robinhood users had shares in Hertz on June 10th.
Total user positions at Robinhood was 16.41m on Feb 19, the SPX high. It surged to 21.48m on Mar 23, the day of the low. This was a 31% increase as stocks declined 34% in six weeks. From the low through yesterday, total user positions have soared to 37.13m, up 73%. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/7ahRW21TBD — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 9, 2020
As you can see in the chart above, the number of new Robinhood accounts exploded during the bear market. Then the number of new accounts spiked even further during the subsequent rally. They bought the dip and then FOMO investors got involved. Accounts with positions went from 16.41 million in February 19th to 21.48 million in March 23rd. Then new users spiked 72% to 37.13 million. On the Google Play Store, Robinhood was the 4th most popular finance app. In a sign of the times, the EBT food stamps app was number 5. The economy is struggling while stocks recover.
NOT A NORMAL EARLY CYCLE MARKET
The working theory is that stocks are at the start of a multi-year bull market because the economy is recovering from its short deep recession. Many commentators are saying the economy isn’t the same as the stock market. It’s possible this theory rings true in reverse as the economy recovers while stocks do poorly. In theory, it makes sense for stocks to rally after recessions, but context matters.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Valuations are important. You can only say that stocks are at the start of a multi-year bull run if you ignore prices. Normally stocks are cheap at the start of cycles, but not this time. We can’t just ignore the best 53 day run since 1933 which has made stocks expensive. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 5 year normalized PE ratio is 25.5 which is in the 95th percentile. It’s above the average of 19.2 since 1957. Stocks do well at the start of cycles because they are cheap. You can see how cheap the market got at the bottom of the prior recession. This isn’t like that. We are already seeing high speculation among retail investors.
If this is a new bull market, it has achieved—in two-months’ time—what took the last bull market more than eight years to accomplish: surpass 25x on our Normalized P/E ratio. pic.twitter.com/YnjoOZISaB — The Leuthold Group (@LeutholdGroup) June 9, 2020
Which Data Is Right?
It appears the consumer is improving based on Visa and Mastercard usage in May. We’ve also seen that retail traffic growth at brick and mortar stores improved 6.5 points in the first week of June to -69.7%. Wendy’s same store sales growth bottomed at worse than a 25% decline in April. Same store sales growth improved to -1.9% in the end of May. The data didn’t improve throughout May because there was a beef shortage. In keeping with that data, the chart below shows Morgan Stanley’s retail tracker anticipates double digit monthly retail sales growth in May. It has been correlated with core sales growth in the past. The retail sales report comes out on Tuesday June 16th.
The @MorganStanley Retail sales tracker points to +10% rebound in sales in May via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/wjwk9SJRWZ — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) June 10, 2020
Not all the numbers are rosy as the Redbook yearly same store sales growth reading fell from -7.2% to -9.7% which is about the trough of this cycle and the entire 2 decade history of this report. That’s from the week of June 6th. Those other readings we mentioned (besides brick and mortar traffic) were from May, so it’s possible both are correct. It would be bad if sales growth fell back in June.
Phase 2 Is Coming Soon
The chart below makes the point we did in our May BLS article. In the beginning of this cycle the low hanging fruit jobs will be coming back. The temporary job loss that quickly turns back into employment is the low hanging fruit. You can’t expect the job creation in May and the expected strong creation in June to continue. Next is phase 2 in which some temporary job losers don’t get their jobs back and hiring picks up gradually. Phase 1 growth is all about reopening. It’s a quick jolt that isn’t sustainable.
Conclusion
Most indicators show retail sales growth is coming back. Currently, the economy and stock market are detached because stocks are doing well, while the economy is still in shambles despite its increase off the bottom. The unemployment rate has far to fall, while the stock market is near its February peak. Because of the sheer speculation amongst retail traders we could see a reversal of this situation as the economy looks better and stocks are weak. Stocks are too expensive especially if your account for the potential corporate tax increase.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--While the equity put/call ratio is as extreme as ever, this trader purchased 23,000 of 10 July’20 $3

While the equity put/call ratio is as extreme as ever, this trader purchased 23,000 of 10 July’20 $300 puts on SPY betting $8m that SPY will drop below $300 during the next 30 days.

While the equity put/call ratio is as extreme as ever , this trader purchased 23,000 of 10 July'20 $ 300 @ @ @ @ @ 8m that SPY will drop below $ 300 during the next 30 days .
Volume @ @ @ @ @ = new position established today .
pic.twitter.com/IWXYkoIK3Q

While the equity put/call ratio is as extreme as ever, this trader purchased 23,000 of 10 July'20 $300 puts on SPY betting $8m that SPY will drop below $300 during the next 30 days. Volume is > than Open Interest = new position established today. pic.twitter.com/IWXYkoIK3Q
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) June 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--The liquidity trap: how QE and low rates might be inadvertently causing deflation

The Fed ’ s reaction to coronavirus was extremely quick .
After seeing what worked to stop the financial crisis in 2008 , the Fed used the same playbook .
Lower rates to near zero , buy treasuries ( quantitative easing ) , buy mortgage backed securities , cut the reserve ratio to 0 % .
That playbook didn ’ t work though , the market kept selling off though .
The Fed then did something unprecedented , they started buying corporate bond ETFs .
They only bought high grade corporate bonds at first , but quickly realized that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keep the corporate bond market stabilized .
Recently , the Fed quietly announced a ramp up of their Main Street lending program , along with guaranteeing 95 % of the loans instead of a range of 85-95 % .
This implies , to me , that banks don ’ t want to give out loans unless the Fed backstops them more .
That will become important later in this post .
The Fed has also been buying commercial mortgage backed securities .
These CMBSs are facing extremely high levels of delinquency .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of all CMBS loans are delinquent as of May , along with 19.3 % of hotel loans and 10 % of retail loans .
A [ whistleblower report ] { www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds ) indicates that the loans in these securities did not go through much scrutiny and could be massively overpriced as well .
These assets are so toxic that the Fed won ’ t even take that many of them .
In fact , the Fed has quietly reduced their asset purchases since the last week of March .
This is just background @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed has been doing to the market so people can stop attributing the rally to Jerome Powell .
Now that I have explained what the Fed has been doing , I want to explain the reasons for this rally .
This rally is driven by retail .
How ?
Delta hedging .
Some of you know about delta hedging , but for those who don ’ t I will explain a quick summary .
A retail investors buys a call from a market maker .
That market maker , being more risk averse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t like to sell naked options so the market maker will buy enough shares to become delta neutral .
That means that as the call they sold goes up in price , they have shares that will cover most or all of their losses .
Options are highly leveraged instruments , which is important because it gives retail the leverage that they need to get market makers to pump the market for them .
The important thing is that the analysts and value investors that are crediting the Fed for this rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as degenerates like us do .
Retail has been piling in to the stock market at an astounding rate , especially into everyone ’ s favorite broker .
This data is as of the beginning of May and I suspect it ’ s a hell of a lot higher .
Bloomberg published some more up to date data recently regarding small option traders buying calls .
Take a look at the graph for yourself , it has gone parabolic .
The Bloomberg article states , “ Traders established fresh bullish positions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call options on equities , according to Sundial founder Jason Goepfert .
That ’ s up from a peak of 28.7 million in February , when speculative activity was rampant , he wrote in a note Monday.
” The volume from small options traders is estimated to be 50 % in that same article , the highest since 2000 .
Google Trends for “ how to trade options ” and “ robinhood trade options ” have gone parabolic recently as well .
The put/call ratio across all equities is also at historic lows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a lack of hedges .
After seeing all of this , it is clear to me that this is a retail driven bubble and not driven by the Fed after April .
Where is retail getting the money for this ?
The answer lies in the savings rate .
According to the Fed , the savings rate “ is calculated as the ratio of personal saving to DPI .
Personal saving is equal to personal income less personal outlays and personal taxes ; it may generally be viewed as the portion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide funds to capital markets or to invest in real assets such as residences.
” As you can see in the graph , the savings rate is now significantly higher than it has ever been before , coming in at 33 % .
This means that consumers are not spending money , they are saving or investing it .
Consumers are also paying down credit card debt at much higher rates than anticipated .
In the month of April , consumer credit had the largest decrease since tracking began in 1968 .
Remember @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m going to refer to it later in regards to deflation .
Before talking more about the bubble , I am going to outline some data that shows the impact of QE on our economy since 2008 up until now .
The main effect of low interest rates along with quantitative easing is an increase in the money supply .
You can see that increase here .
Typically throughout history , an expansion in the money supply has lead to an increase in the inflation rate .
That has not happened , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ target inflation rate since the crisis .
With such an increase in the money supply , hyperinflation is stopped by the velocity at which the money moves .
In 2006 , Ben Bernanke noticed this phenomenon , stating , “ the empirical relationship between money growth and variables such as inflation and nominal output growth has continued to be unstable.
” A recent research paper has also found a significant positive correlation between wealth inequality and monetary growth .
Velocity of money is defined by the Fed as : “ the frequency at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period .
In other words , it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time .
If the velocity of money is increasing , then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
” This velocity has been trending downward in a big way since 2008 ( and before ) , not just in the US but everywhere .
Velocity of the M2 money supply in the US broke through the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) by 2012 .
Velocity is now significantly lower .
M2 velocity includes bank reserves though , so let ’ s take a look at the velocity of M1 ( which is physical currency and checking account deposits ) .
Demand deposits ( checking account balances ) have been exploding since 2008 , with another massive jump starting in March .
This means that cash is not being used and not adding to consumer prices or any economic productivity .
I believe all of this to be an effect of QE and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been a safe asset shortage since the advent of QE , as central banks of developed economies accumulate safe government bonds and US treasuries .
This has lead to a shortage of safe assets , driving prices up and yields down artificially .
Ricardo Caballero , an MIT economist , said this ( warning : PDF ) in 2017 : “ The ongoing pressures driving the imbalance in safe asset markets has in recent decades helped to drive the steady decline in interest rates on safe assets .
However , interest rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further .
When the equilibrium full-employment interest rate needs to be negative , but can not adjust sufficiently downward , then ( other things equal ) the equilibrating mechanism is an endogenous decline in safe asset demand through a reduction in aggregate income and wealth .
That is , equilibrium is achieved through recession.
” At the end of 2019 , the Fed owned 36 % of all US treasuries , with that number only set to increase after their open market operations this year .
of April 21st , central banks around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value of treasuries as they did in 2008 .
This shortage of safe assets has pushed yields down and made it so that banks have no desire to make loans to decrease their reserves .
Take a look at the excess reserves banks have been holding .
Since the 2008 crisis , excess reserves have exploded .
This means that the bank is sitting on cash that they are doing nothing with .
The common belief is that lending goes up as rates go down , since banks have to make more loans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of profit .
However , the data does not show that to be the case since the introduction of QE .
The key thing that I have noticed in regards to excess returns and loans is that banks do not want to make loans at these low yields , possibly due to the massive unpriced systemic risk of our debt bubble popping .
In Q1 2020 , banks tightened their loan standards at a rate comparable to 2008 .
A liquidity trap is created when low interest rates are low and consumers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investing in low yielding bonds .
The Fed started paying banks a small risk free interest rate in 2008 , which moves along with the Fed funds rate .
I theorize that the shortage of safe assets and low interest rates has gone past the “ reversal rate ” and accommodative monetary policy has become contractionary .
In these uncertain times , banks would rather collect the small guaranteed risk free interest rate instead of introducing their balance sheets to any more risk , especially underpriced risk .
The Fed believes that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0 .
However , banks appear to not want to make non-guaranteed loans and instead are content to sit on their excess reserves .
This means that the expansion of the monetary supply is not working as intended and that the money sitting in bank reserves is becoming contractionary .
If loans aren ’ t being made and that money isn ’ t being spent , then that money may as well not exist in the money supply at all .
According to a Princeton economist ( PDF ) , quantitative easing raises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be done after rate cuts are exhausted .
This means that the Fed could be unknowingly contracting the money supply , even though it appears that they are massively expanding it on paper .
Deflation occurs when institutions and individuals don ’ t spend their money in the real economy , whether by purchasing goods/services or making loans to businesses .
The Fed ’ s deflation probability , which is the possibility that personal consumption expenditures price index change will go below 0 in the next 12 months , spiked from .001 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probability that we have inflation over 2.5 % over the next 12 months has crashed down to .002 as of last month .
As shown in the data above , consumers aren ’ t spending and banks are stockpiling their reserves .
This is deflationary and will lead to lower prices , lower corporate earnings , and lower asset prices .
As mentioned in the data further up in the post , consumer credit dropped at a much quicker rate than expected , even with projections taking coronavirus into account .
Economists expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion in April , but it fell by $ 68.8 billion instead .
This was the largest one month drop in consumer borrowing since 1943 .
The core consumer price index ( CPI ) also missed expectations of a 0-0.1 % jump , instead falling by 0.1 % for last month .
This came after April was the largest drop ( -0.4 % ) on record since data started in 1957 .
According to research from the Netherlands central bank ( PDF ) , QE encourages risk taking by market participants and creates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bubbles across all asset classes thanks to the levels of debt in the economy ( the stock market being an example ) .
We even see debt bubbles too , like the $ 9 trillion of corporate debt ( as of 2018 ) which help fuel these asset bubbles .
The research from the Netherlands central bank also shows that asset bubbles popping are worth -4 % inflation .
An asset price bubble does not signal inflation either .
I have picked out some quotes from the researcher that show QE might be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing this research , that there is no chance of a V-shaped recovery in the economy , despite what the market is signaling .
I believe that we are about to enter into a massive deflation cycle that is being assisted inadvertently by the Fed ’ s policy of QE and the near 0 % interest rates .
Consumer credit is contracting and banks are stashing extra reserves , meaning that the real money supply is contracting .
Default risk on commercial mortgage backed securities , corporate bonds ( thanks to lower earnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will continue to rise as the economic effects of coronavirus and monetary policy undertaken by the Fed continue to be revealed .
Defaults will rise even more if we get prolonged and sustained deflation as the weight of our debt crushes our financial system .
I believe that , due to the historically high levels of retail activity in the market , it will crash soon as well .
The wealth inequality effect of QE ( which Powell denies the existence of ) will make it increasingly harder for the economy to recover @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off of each other as we get further into a deflationary cycle .
It will be very difficult , if not impossible , for the Fed to get out of this crisis when we get into it .
Deflation is rare historically and makes monetary policy ineffective , it is a central bank ’ s worst nightmare .
Deflation will dry up economic activity and cause us to go into a depression which will be difficult to get out of .
tl ; dr : Powell thinks he is injecting money into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going anywhere , the stock market is in a bubble that will pop very soon , corporate bond and CMBS default rates will increase over the coming year , deflation will make debt a heavier burden and cash more valuable , the Fed is powerless to stop it .
Our economy enters a deflationary cycle that will be hard to get out of , until the bank reserves find their way into the real economy .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Do you own due diligence .

by theycallmeryan
Fed Reaction to Coronavirus
The Fed’s reaction to coronavirus was extremely quick. After seeing what worked to stop the financial crisis in 2008, the Fed used the same playbook. Lower rates to near zero, buy treasuries (quantitative easing), buy mortgage backed securities, cut the reserve ratio to 0%. That playbook didn’t work though, the market kept selling off though. The Fed then did something unprecedented, they started buying corporate bond ETFs. They only bought high grade corporate bonds at first, but quickly realized that they had to buy junk bonds in order to keep the corporate bond market stabilized. Recently, the Fed quietly announced a ramp up of their Main Street lending program, along with guaranteeing 95% of the loans instead of a range of 85-95%. This implies, to me, that banks don’t want to give out loans unless the Fed backstops them more. That will become important later in this post.
The Fed has also been buying commercial mortgage backed securities. These CMBSs are facing extremely high levels of delinquency. According to that article, 7.6% of all CMBS loans are delinquent as of May, along with 19.3% of hotel loans and 10% of retail loans. A [whistleblower report]{www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds) indicates that the loans in these securities did not go through much scrutiny and could be massively overpriced as well. These assets are so toxic that the Fed won’t even take that many of them. In fact, the Fed has quietly reduced their asset purchases since the last week of March. This is just background information so I can explain what the Fed has been doing to the market so people can stop attributing the rally to Jerome Powell.
Reasons For the Rally
Now that I have explained what the Fed has been doing, I want to explain the reasons for this rally. This rally is driven by retail. How? Delta hedging. Some of you know about delta hedging, but for those who don’t I will explain a quick summary. A retail investors buys a call from a market maker. That market maker, being more risk averse than we are accustomed to, doesn’t like to sell naked options so the market maker will buy enough shares to become delta neutral. That means that as the call they sold goes up in price, they have shares that will cover most or all of their losses. Options are highly leveraged instruments, which is important because it gives retail the leverage that they need to get market makers to pump the market for them.
The important thing is that the analysts and value investors that are crediting the Fed for this rally don’t understand the options market as well as degenerates like us do. Retail has been piling in to the stock market at an astounding rate, especially into everyone’s favorite broker. This data is as of the beginning of May and I suspect it’s a hell of a lot higher.
Bloomberg published some more up to date data recently regarding small option traders buying calls. Take a look at the graph for yourself, it has gone parabolic. The Bloomberg article states, “Traders established fresh bullish positions last week by buying 35.6 million new call options on equities, according to Sundial founder Jason Goepfert. That’s up from a peak of 28.7 million in February, when speculative activity was rampant, he wrote in a note Monday.” The volume from small options traders is estimated to be 50% in that same article, the highest since 2000. Google Trends for “how to trade options” and “robinhood trade options” have gone parabolic recently as well. The put/call ratio across all equities is also at historic lows, indicating a mass wave of euphoria and a lack of hedges.
After seeing all of this, it is clear to me that this is a retail driven bubble and not driven by the Fed after April. Where is retail getting the money for this? The answer lies in the savings rate. According to the Fed, the savings rate “is calculated as the ratio of personal saving to DPI. Personal saving is equal to personal income less personal outlays and personal taxes; it may generally be viewed as the portion of personal income that is used either to provide funds to capital markets or to invest in real assets such as residences.” As you can see in the graph, the savings rate is now significantly higher than it has ever been before, coming in at 33%. This means that consumers are not spending money, they are saving or investing it. Consumers are also paying down credit card debt at much higher rates than anticipated. In the month of April, consumer credit had the largest decrease since tracking began in 1968. Remember the data in this paragraph, I’m going to refer to it later in regards to deflation.
Effects of Quantitative Easing
Before talking more about the bubble, I am going to outline some data that shows the impact of QE on our economy since 2008 up until now.
The main effect of low interest rates along with quantitative easing is an increase in the money supply. You can see that increase here. Typically throughout history, an expansion in the money supply has lead to an increase in the inflation rate. That has not happened, the Fed has struggled to hit the target inflation rate since the crisis. With such an increase in the money supply, hyperinflation is stopped by the velocity at which the money moves. In 2006, Ben Bernanke noticed this phenomenon, stating, “the empirical relationship between money growth and variables such as inflation and nominal output growth has continued to be unstable.” A recent research paper has also found a significant positive correlation between wealth inequality and monetary growth.
Velocity of money is defined by the Fed as: “the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.” This velocity has been trending downward in a big way since 2008 (and before), not just in the US but everywhere. Velocity of the M2 money supply in the US broke through the previous low (tracking started in 1960) by 2012. Velocity is now significantly lower. M2 velocity includes bank reserves though, so let’s take a look at the velocity of M1 (which is physical currency and checking account deposits). Demand deposits (checking account balances) have been exploding since 2008, with another massive jump starting in March. This means that cash is not being used and not adding to consumer prices or any economic productivity. I believe all of this to be an effect of QE and a prolonged period of low rates.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Liquidity Trap
There has been a safe asset shortage since the advent of QE, as central banks of developed economies accumulate safe government bonds and US treasuries. This has lead to a shortage of safe assets, driving prices up and yields down artificially. Ricardo Caballero, an MIT economist, said this (warning: PDF) in 2017: “The ongoing pressures driving the imbalance in safe asset markets has in recent decades helped to drive the steady decline in interest rates on safe assets. However, interest rates on these assets cannot fall much further. When the equilibrium full-employment interest rate needs to be negative, but cannot adjust sufficiently downward, then (other things equal) the equilibrating mechanism is an endogenous decline in safe asset demand through a reduction in aggregate income and wealth. That is, equilibrium is achieved through recession.” At the end of 2019, the Fed owned 36% of all US treasuries, with that number only set to increase after their open market operations this year. of April 21st, central banks around the world have bought 5 times the value of treasuries as they did in 2008.
This shortage of safe assets has pushed yields down and made it so that banks have no desire to make loans to decrease their reserves. Take a look at the excess reserves banks have been holding. Since the 2008 crisis, excess reserves have exploded. This means that the bank is sitting on cash that they are doing nothing with. The common belief is that lending goes up as rates go down, since banks have to make more loans in order to sustain the same amount of profit. However, the data does not show that to be the case since the introduction of QE. The key thing that I have noticed in regards to excess returns and loans is that banks do not want to make loans at these low yields, possibly due to the massive unpriced systemic risk of our debt bubble popping. In Q1 2020, banks tightened their loan standards at a rate comparable to 2008.
A liquidity trap is created when low interest rates are low and consumers and institutions decide to save money instead of investing in low yielding bonds. The Fed started paying banks a small risk free interest rate in 2008, which moves along with the Fed funds rate. I theorize that the shortage of safe assets and low interest rates has gone past the “reversal rate” and accommodative monetary policy has become contractionary. In these uncertain times, banks would rather collect the small guaranteed risk free interest rate instead of introducing their balance sheets to any more risk, especially underpriced risk. The Fed believes that they are stimulating lending by cutting rates to 0. However, banks appear to not want to make non-guaranteed loans and instead are content to sit on their excess reserves. This means that the expansion of the monetary supply is not working as intended and that the money sitting in bank reserves is becoming contractionary. If loans aren’t being made and that money isn’t being spent, then that money may as well not exist in the money supply at all. According to a Princeton economist (PDF), quantitative easing raises this reversal interest rate and should only be done after rate cuts are exhausted. This means that the Fed could be unknowingly contracting the money supply, even though it appears that they are massively expanding it on paper.
Deflation
Deflation occurs when institutions and individuals don’t spend their money in the real economy, whether by purchasing goods/services or making loans to businesses. The Fed’s deflation probability, which is the possibility that personal consumption expenditures price index change will go below 0 in the next 12 months, spiked from .001 in January to .763 in May. The probability that we have inflation over 2.5% over the next 12 months has crashed down to .002 as of last month. As shown in the data above, consumers aren’t spending and banks are stockpiling their reserves. This is deflationary and will lead to lower prices, lower corporate earnings, and lower asset prices.
As mentioned in the data further up in the post, consumer credit dropped at a much quicker rate than expected, even with projections taking coronavirus into account. Economists expected consumer credit to fall by $14 billion in April, but it fell by $68.8 billion instead. This was the largest one month drop in consumer borrowing since 1943. The core consumer price index (CPI) also missed expectations of a 0-0.1% jump, instead falling by 0.1% for last month. This came after April was the largest drop (-0.4%) on record since data started in 1957.
According to research from the Netherlands central bank (PDF), QE encourages risk taking by market participants and creates asset pricing bubbles. We are seeing bubbles across all asset classes thanks to the levels of debt in the economy (the stock market being an example). We even see debt bubbles too, like the $9 trillion of corporate debt (as of 2018) which help fuel these asset bubbles. The research from the Netherlands central bank also shows that asset bubbles popping are worth -4% inflation. An asset price bubble does not signal inflation either. I have picked out some quotes from the researcher that show QE might be leading to deflation:
Overall, the results suggest that the signaling value of asset prices for inflation is weak and unstable, implying that while QE is effective in boosting asset prices – one of the main transmission channels of QE − higher asset prices may not always lead to higher inflation. High asset prices may even precede a low inflation regime. For policymakers this is useful information because, based on the outcome of our models, one cannot presume that QE by definition leads to higher inflation. If […] a surge in asset prices is not supported by real economic developments and therefore becomes unsustainable at some stage, the subsequent asset price collapse may cause a recession. While central banks intend to raise inflation by purchasing government bonds to reduce bond yields, our results indicate that this policy can have the opposite effect on inflation.
Conclusion: The Fake V-Shaped Recovery
I conclude after doing this research, that there is no chance of a V-shaped recovery in the economy, despite what the market is signaling. I believe that we are about to enter into a massive deflation cycle that is being assisted inadvertently by the Fed’s policy of QE and the near 0% interest rates. Consumer credit is contracting and banks are stashing extra reserves, meaning that the real money supply is contracting. Default risk on commercial mortgage backed securities, corporate bonds (thanks to lower earnings), and other forms of debt will continue to rise as the economic effects of coronavirus and monetary policy undertaken by the Fed continue to be revealed. Defaults will rise even more if we get prolonged and sustained deflation as the weight of our debt crushes our financial system. I believe that, due to the historically high levels of retail activity in the market, it will crash soon as well. The wealth inequality effect of QE (which Powell denies the existence of) will make it increasingly harder for the economy to recover.
All of these things will feed off of each other as we get further into a deflationary cycle. It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Fed to get out of this crisis when we get into it. Deflation is rare historically and makes monetary policy ineffective, it is a central bank’s worst nightmare. Deflation will dry up economic activity and cause us to go into a depression which will be difficult to get out of.
tl;dr: Powell thinks he is injecting money into the economy but it really isn’t going anywhere, the stock market is in a bubble that will pop very soon, corporate bond and CMBS default rates will increase over the coming year, deflation will make debt a heavier burden and cash more valuable, the Fed is powerless to stop it. Our economy enters a deflationary cycle that will be hard to get out of, until the bank reserves find their way into the real economy.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Nurse Whistleblower (with proof): Putting nonCv19 patients on ventillators, telling them they have i

Nurse Whistleblower (with proof): Putting nonCv19 patients on ventillators, telling them they have it, killing them. Intentional placement of CV19 and nonCV19 patients together.

Watch the first 10 minutes , you ’ ll want to watch the rest .
There ’ s much more @ @ @ @ @ .
This NEEDS to be national news .
Here ’ s the first 10mins to @ @ @ @ @ they want the full doc link them to the bitchute streamable.com/k6bq2h

by Brandwins
At a major NYC hospital!!
Watch the first 10 minutes, you’ll want to watch the rest. There’s much more than whats in the title. This NEEDS to be national news.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Here’s the first 10mins to share with friends, if they want the full doc link them to the bitchute streamable.com/k6bq2h
FULL DOC MIRROR: www.bitchute.com/video/MIda2dWyq3av/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--FOX: “Trump to announce executive, legislative actions on police reform: sources”

President Trump will soon have a list of police reform proposals that can be accomplished through a combination of executive @ @ @ @ @ that effort could have some crossover with Democratic proposals , multiple sources told Fox News @ @ @ @ @ Scott , R-S.C. , is taking the lead on the legislative side , Fox News @ @ @ @ @ Chief of Staff Mark Meadows , senior adviser Jared Kushner , and domestic policy adviser @ @ @ @ @ on Capitol Hill meeting with Scott .
The potential executive actions would be taken at @ @ @ @ @ would be executed in conjunction with law enforcement and community leaders .

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
President Trump will soon have a list of police reform proposals that can be accomplished through a combination of executive and legislative action — and that effort could have some crossover with Democratic proposals, multiple sources told Fox News on Tuesday.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., is taking the lead on the legislative side, Fox News is told. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, senior adviser Jared Kushner, and domestic policy adviser Ja’Ron Smith are on Capitol Hill meeting with Scott.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The potential executive actions would be taken at the Justice Department, and would be executed in conjunction with law enforcement and community leaders.
www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-to-announce-executive-legislative-action-on-police-reform-sources


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--In Seattle, Antifa is Putting Up Preprinted Signs

It looks like Inslee is doing everything to bait the President to attack them .
This is really troubling and @ @

It looks like Inslee is doing everything to bait the President to attack them.
This is really troubling and sickening.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
😳 HOLY BAIT BATMAN! A spontaneous takeover in Seattle? Right.🙄 A preprinted sign, really? Inslee is baiting Trump to send in troops to restore order to Seattle. Why? The optics and headlines for the media is enough. Let them destroy themselves.
pic.twitter.com/7pvVqgyKly — ALS😊BAM❤BAM (@HLAurora63) June 11, 2020
h/t SS


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--China dumps US debt, fears dollar plunge (Full show).

After much speculation and worry , the US Federal Reserve has opted not to lower interest rates below zero .
@ @ @ @ @ as it unfolds .
However despite the Fed ’ s decision , fears over the @ @ @ @ @ have led China to nevertheless decide to actively sell its share of US debt , @ @ @ @ @ than trillion dollars , in an attempt to unseat the preeminence of the US dollar @ @ @ @ @ “ Boom Bust ” co-host Ben Swann explains the details before joining UK MP George @ @ @ @ @ discuss the implications .
Two brothers reenacted the death of George Floyd at an “ @ @ @ @ @ and were fired after video of the stunt went viral .
RT America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ .
RT America ’ s Steve Christakos reports on breaking news in the world of @ @ @ @ @ reporter Ashlee Banks reports on ongoing demonstrations outside the White House and political developments in @ @ @ @ @ of George Floyd and the worldwide protest movement it sparked .

After much speculation and worry, the US Federal Reserve has opted not to lower interest rates below zero. Rick Sanchez breaks the news as it unfolds. However despite the Fed’s decision, fears over the falling value of US currency have led China to nevertheless decide to actively sell its share of US debt, of which it owns more than trillion dollars, in an attempt to unseat the preeminence of the US dollar in global commerce. Then “Boom Bust” co-host Ben Swann explains the details before joining UK MP George Galloway on a panel to discuss the implications. Two brothers reenacted the death of George Floyd at an “All Lives Matter” protest and were fired after video of the stunt went viral. RT America’s Trinity Chavez has the details. RT America’s Steve Christakos reports on breaking news in the world of sports. Plus, freelance reporter Ashlee Banks reports on ongoing demonstrations outside the White House and political developments in the wake of the death of George Floyd and the worldwide protest movement it sparked.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.rt.com/shows/news-with-rick-sanchez/491470-new-china-dumps-us-debt/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--BUILD THAT WALL, SAYS…ANTIFA?

BUILD THAT WALL, SAYS…ANTIFA?

So the anarchists are building a… border wall .
Okey-dokey .
t.co/QNTxgVcpHn A : EVIL PROTESTERS WHO BELIEVE IN WALLS @ @ @ @ @ B : Heroic protesters who use walls and guns keep virus at bay with noble @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/yXxUBVd8RH

So the anarchists are building a… border wall. Okey-dokey. t.co/QNTxgVcpHn
Related: Antifa explained.
UPDATE:
A: EVIL PROTESTERS WHO BELIEVE IN WALLS VIOLATING HEALTH LAWS WITH GUNS
B: Heroic protesters who use walls and guns keep virus at bay with noble cause of righteous sedition. pic.twitter.com/yXxUBVd8RH
— Razor (@hale_razor) June 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Some fine doublethink from NPR here, just 14 minutes apart.

I wonder how many statues will be torn down ( that were due to be officially dismantled BTW ) and @ @ @ @ @ Trump rallies ?
“ Not even our unabashedly far left brazenly partisan Resistance media would @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus after celebrating the riots all last week ” is something some people thought @ @ @ @ @ really .
No seriously , some people actually did .
Links to the two articles @ @ @ @ @ Rallies This Month Despite Coronavirus Pandemic Even In A Pandemic , WHO Believes That Public @ @ @ @ @ tried to start a race war & made excuses on why protesters & rioters didn @ @ @ @ @ social distancing they are now back to Coronavirus propaganda .
Blaming Trump for it .
@ @ @ @ @ is the enemy of the people .

by clemaneuverers
Check out the time stamps
I wonder how many statues will be torn down (that were due to be officially dismantled BTW) and attendees maimed at the coming Trump rallies?
“Not even our unabashedly far left brazenly partisan Resistance media would snark about Trump rallies and the coronavirus after celebrating the riots all last week” is something some people thought would be true. No really. No seriously, some people actually did.
Links to the two articles:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Trump To Restart Political Rallies This Month Despite Coronavirus Pandemic
Even In A Pandemic, WHO Believes That Public Protests Are Important
Related:
After CNN tried to start a race war & made excuses on why protesters & rioters didn’t have to practice social distancing they are now back to Coronavirus propaganda. Blaming Trump for it. The so called free press is the enemy of the people.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Reddit Hits Peak Hypocrisy: Calls to violence and for the destruction of property litter the front p

Reddit Hits Peak Hypocrisy: Calls to violence and for the destruction of property litter the front page

Comments like this are receiving hundreds and even thousands of upvotes .
This is advocating for the violent destruction of @ @ @ @ @ is now condoning .
Why peak hypocrisy ?
Folks like me are censored regularly for @ @ @ @ @ received a warning from the admin team for using the phrase “ shoot the messenger @ @ @ @ @ being unfairly punished !
I urge people to watch this video of “ protesters ” @ @ @ @ @ causing potentially life-threatening injuries on an unsuspecting individual .
This is the disgusting behavior being @ @ @ @ @ the Mockingbird MSM , and reddit is similarly at the heart of this propaganda .

by axolotl_peyotl
Here’s an example.
It’s well overdue that those idols are smashed
Comments like this are receiving hundreds and even thousands of upvotes.
This is advocating for the violent destruction of private property, which reddit is now condoning.
Why peak hypocrisy? Folks like me are censored regularly for bullshit reasons…for example I actually received a warning from the admin team for using the phrase “shoot the messenger” to describe a whistleblower being unfairly punished!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A conspiracy theorist used a popular idiom? Censored!
Encouraging people to violently destroy property? Endorsed!
I urge people to watch this video of “protesters” pulling down a statue and causing potentially life-threatening injuries on an unsuspecting individual.
This is the disgusting behavior being propped up and encouraged by the Mockingbird MSM, and reddit is similarly at the heart of this propaganda.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Philadelphia 1918 vs 2020. Hopefully History doesn’t repeat itself.

They continued to wear masks well after it was over and it took a long time for things to get @ @ @ @ @ were very spooked and it had lasting effects .
At least until 1920 .
In @ @ @ @ @ some places to not wear a mask .
All of this to say that it @ @ @ @ @ only do so much .

by jeffek82
They continued to wear masks well after it was over and it took a long time for things to get back to normal. People were very spooked and it had lasting effects. At least until 1920. In 1918 it was illegal in some places to not wear a mask. All of this to say that it STILL spread because masks can only do so much.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--FEDERAL DEBT TOPS $26 TRILLION; SPENDING SETS NEW RECORD VIRUS; SECOND WAVE SPOOKS STOCKS; SCRAMBLE

FEDERAL DEBT TOPS $26 TRILLION; SPENDING SETS NEW RECORD VIRUS; SECOND WAVE SPOOKS STOCKS; SCRAMBLE FOR GOLD

Federal Debt Tops $ 26 Trillion for First Time ; Jumps $ 2 Trillion in Just 63 Days ( CNSNews.com ) – The debt of the federal government topped $ 26 trillion for the first time on Tuesday , when it climbed from $ 25,960,547,920,986.11 to $ 26,003,751,512,344.91 , according to data released today by the Treasury Department .
The federal debt had topped $ 24 trillion for the first time on April 7 , 2020 .
It then climbed another trillion dollars in just 28 days , topping $ 25 trillion for the first time on May 5 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the debt topped that $ 25-trillion threshold on May 5 to yesterday , when it topped $ 26 trillion for the first time .
The chart below shows the date on which the federal debt surpassed each trillion-dollar threshold from $ 5 trillion to $ 26 trillion : Federal Spending and Deficit Set Records Through May ( CNSNews.com ) – The federal government set records for both the amount of money it spent and the deficit it ran in the first eight months of fiscal 2020 ( October through May ) , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Treasury Statement .
During the October-May period , the government spent a record $ 3,899,536,000,000 while it collected $ 2,019,240,000,000 in total taxes .
A Scramble for Gold Is Redrawing the Map of the Market New York faces a gold rush after the pandemic threw precious-metal markets into disarray , setting off a scramble by traders to cut their losses .
Bullion vaults approved by the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange house a record 29.7 million troy ounces , according to FactSet data back to 2013 .
Almost three quarters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fully loaded Boeing 737-700 airplanes—has arrived in the past three months .
The displacement was set off by dysfunction in the market in March and early April , caused by fears of a breakdown in ordinarily frictionless gold supply chains .
It has reversed the normal flow of bullion from west to east , redrawing the map of the international gold market .

Federal Debt Tops $26 Trillion for First Time; Jumps $2 Trillion in Just 63 Days
(CNSNews.com) – The debt of the federal government topped $26 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, when it climbed from $25,960,547,920,986.11 to $26,003,751,512,344.91, according to data released today by the Treasury Department.
The federal debt had topped $24 trillion for the first time on April 7, 2020.
It then climbed another trillion dollars in just 28 days, topping $25 trillion for the first time on May 5.
Only 35 days had elapsed from when the debt topped that $25-trillion threshold on May 5 to yesterday, when it topped $26 trillion for the first time.
The chart below shows the date on which the federal debt surpassed each trillion-dollar threshold from $5 trillion to $26 trillion:
Federal Spending and Deficit Set Records Through May
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
(CNSNews.com) – The federal government set records for both the amount of money it spent and the deficit it ran in the first eight months of fiscal 2020 (October through May), according to data released today in the Monthly Treasury Statement.
During the October-May period, the government spent a record $3,899,536,000,000 while it collected $2,019,240,000,000 in total taxes.
A Scramble for Gold Is Redrawing the Map of the Market
New York faces a gold rush after the pandemic threw precious-metal markets into disarray, setting off a scramble by traders to cut their losses.
Bullion vaults approved by the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange house a record 29.7 million troy ounces, according to FactSet data back to 2013. Almost three quarters of that gold—weighing as much as nine, fully loaded Boeing 737-700 airplanes—has arrived in the past three months. The displacement was set off by dysfunction in the market in March and early April, caused by fears of a breakdown in ordinarily frictionless gold supply chains. It has reversed the normal flow of bullion from west to east, redrawing the map of the international gold market.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Oil Prices Crash On Second Wave Of COVID-19

Oil has had a turbulent year .
Crude prices went negative for the first time in history , followed by one of the biggest rallies the industry has ever seen .
And now , just when the market is starting to seem somewhat stable , COVID-19 strikes again .
A resurgence of COVID cases in the United States and a gloomy economic forecast from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has investors scrambling , with oil prices on track to hit their biggest daily decline since April 27th .
Once again , oversupply and lack of demand have taken center stage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. oil inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels , defying predictions of a 1.45 million barrel build .
Adding even more pressure to oil prices , the U.S. Federal Reserve noted that unemployment rates were set to settle near 9.3 % by the end of the year , adding that it could take years to return to pre-pandemic employment levels .
COVID-19 has been the main culprit in the market collapse .
While many states have already reopened with some strict guidelines , things don ’ t seem to be going as planned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three months to hit the 1 million confirmed cases mark , yet it only to six weeks to double it .
On Wednesday , the U.S. crossed the 2 million mark , with many states reporting significant spikes following attempts to ease lockdown restrictions .
As of this morning , the U.S. has reported over 113,000 COVID-related deaths , and healthcare experts across the globe are warning that the pandemic is nowhere near over , encouraging individuals to maintain social-distancing practices and to wear face masks in public .
Though COVID-19 has taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some suggest the oil market , in particular , simply rose too quickly .
Jeffrey Halley , senior market analyst , Asia-Pacific at OANDA said “ The fall in oil prices is just as much about timing as COVID-19 cases though , coming as both equities and oil were looking overbought on any measure of short-term indicator , ” adding , “ Some sort of correction had been overdue after the massive increase in speculative long positioning , and oil ’ s breath-taking rally over the past month .
”

By Charles Kennedy
Oil has had a turbulent year. Crude prices went negative for the first time in history, followed by one of the biggest rallies the industry has ever seen. And now, just when the market is starting to seem somewhat stable, COVID-19 strikes again.
A resurgence of COVID cases in the United States and a gloomy economic forecast from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has investors scrambling, with oil prices on track to hit their biggest daily decline since April 27th. Once again, oversupply and lack of demand have taken center stage.
Yesterday, the EIA reported that U.S. oil inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels, defying predictions of a 1.45 million barrel build. Adding even more pressure to oil prices, the U.S. Federal Reserve noted that unemployment rates were set to settle near 9.3% by the end of the year, adding that it could take years to return to pre-pandemic employment levels.
COVID-19 has been the main culprit in the market collapse. While many states have already reopened with some strict guidelines, things don’t seem to be going as planned.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It took the United States nearly three months to hit the 1 million confirmed cases mark, yet it only to six weeks to double it. On Wednesday, the U.S. crossed the 2 million mark, with many states reporting significant spikes following attempts to ease lockdown restrictions.
As of this morning, the U.S. has reported over 113,000 COVID-related deaths, and healthcare experts across the globe are warning that the pandemic is nowhere near over, encouraging individuals to maintain social-distancing practices and to wear face masks in public.
Though COVID-19 has taken a clear toll on global economies, some suggest the oil market, in particular, simply rose too quickly.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia-Pacific at OANDA said “The fall in oil prices is just as much about timing as COVID-19 cases though, coming as both equities and oil were looking overbought on any measure of short-term indicator,” adding, “Some sort of correction had been overdue after the massive increase in speculative long positioning, and oil’s breath-taking rally over the past month.”
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Former Dutch Scientist Willem Engel Speaks Up – A Crisis In Science, Lockdown Is A Disgrace

In this short SUBTITLED version of that 1,5 long conversation Willem tells and shows the Dutch audience a simple model @ @ @ @ @ lockdown is a disgrace * Why many scientist and medical experts do not dare to @ @ @ @ @ models used by the governments are wrong * Why the PCR testing should not be @ @ @ @

In this short SUBTITLED version of that 1,5 long conversation Willem tells and shows the Dutch audience a simple model that explains why
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
* The lockdown is a disgrace
* Why many scientist and medical experts do not dare to speak out
* Why the models used by the governments are wrong
* Why the PCR testing should not be used
And much more


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--How Long Can The Insane Stock Valuations Last?

John Rubino interviewed by Jay Taylor on Turning Hard Times Into Good Times John Rubino , runs the financial website @ @ @ @ @ to make sense of the apparent detachment of stock values with economic reality .

John Rubino interviewed by Jay Taylor on Turning Hard Times Into Good Times
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
John Rubino, runs the financial website DollarCollapse.com, talks about how to make sense of the apparent detachment of stock values with economic reality.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Financial Sector Under Pressure As We Learn How Economically Damaging The Shutdown Has Been

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders The Financial sector is unique in that it is an essential component of global economics as well as local economic functions .
Consumers depend on banking services , credit , and all sorts of other financial services in their day-to-day lives .
The Financial sector is one of the components of the US stock market that can suddenly find itself under pricing pressure as an economic crisis event unfolds .
This happens because banks earn a large portion of their income from servicing debt and originating loans .
The recent rally in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the March 2020 lows , has reached our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system ’ s upside price targets and has also filled a major gap that was created in early March 2020 .
Because of these factors , and the current downside price rotation within the Financial Sector , we believe this component of the US stock market could continue to see extended pricing pressure going forward as we learn just how damaging the past 70+ days of the economic shutdown have been for the economy .
We do know that certain consumers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ card debt .
We believe this is a learned trait from the 2008-09 market crisis where credit card rates skyrocketed as large numbers of consumers began defaulting on their homes and other types of credit .
We also know that delinquencies for autos and other sub-prime credit services have begun to skyrocket higher .
The sub-prime credit market is vastly different than it was in 2008-09 .
Recently , Fintech and other new resources have allowed for extended sub-prime lending and leveraging within the US ( Source : cnbc.com ) .
When you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal loans , personal Fintech margin capabilities , and sub-AAA corporate debt levels , the total amount of at-risk subprime debt must exceed $ 2 trillion US Dollars .
We believe this source of risk has been greatly underestimated in terms of risk to the Financial Sector over the next 12+ months ( Source : zerohedge.com ) .
The current delinquency rate among the non-100 largest US banks for credit cards has already climbed well above the 2008-2010 peak levels .
It appears subprime borrowers are already pushed well beyond their limits in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This suggests a contraction in the credit market will likely take place over the next 24+ months as these at-risk borrowers default at greater rates .
This could transition into the housing market and other sectors of the economy if multiple waves of sub-prime borrowers stress the US financial system because of the COVID-19 shutdown .
Our research team believes the peak in the XLF ETF has already set up after the recent 47 % + rally from the March lows .
The $ 27 price peak sets up directly between our two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) levels .
We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $ 23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days .
The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers .
This XLF Weekly chart highlights the recent rally and the “ Gap ” that recently filled .
It is our belief that the range between the MAGENTA horizontal lines represents a very clear support/resistance level within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that price will have to fall below $ 25 in order to initiate a deeper downside price move targeting recent low price levels or price will have to move above $ 27.50 in order to continue to rally .
Currently , our researchers believe the downside potential has a much higher probability of success as we get closer to the end of Q2:2020 .
If our research is correct and XLF falls below the $ 25 price level , we believe it will target at least $ 22 to $ 22.50 before finding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the $ 22 price level , it could fall well below the $ 20 price level again on weaker expectations .
These types of price swings can be incredible setups for skilled technical traders .
Follow our research and learn how we can help you find and execute better trades .
We recently executed a new swing trade for our members that is already showing great opportunity .
Protect your capital and learn to trade proven technical setups with our dedicated team of researchers and traders .
As a technical analyst and trader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities .
I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders .
2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors .
Don ’ t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups .
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark .
We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February , but we profited from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with TLT bonds for a 20 % gain , and we closed out another winning trade on Friday .

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders
The Financial sector is unique in that it is an essential component of global economics as well as local economic functions. Consumers depend on banking services, credit, and all sorts of other financial services in their day-to-day lives. The Financial sector is one of the components of the US stock market that can suddenly find itself under pricing pressure as an economic crisis event unfolds. This happens because banks earn a large portion of their income from servicing debt and originating loans.
The recent rally in the Financial sector, over 47% from the March 2020 lows, has reached our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s upside price targets and has also filled a major gap that was created in early March 2020. Because of these factors, and the current downside price rotation within the Financial Sector, we believe this component of the US stock market could continue to see extended pricing pressure going forward as we learn just how damaging the past 70+ days of the economic shutdown have been for the economy.
We do know that certain consumers have quickly begun to pay off credit card debt. We believe this is a learned trait from the 2008-09 market crisis where credit card rates skyrocketed as large numbers of consumers began defaulting on their homes and other types of credit. We also know that delinquencies for autos and other sub-prime credit services have begun to skyrocket higher. The sub-prime credit market is vastly different than it was in 2008-09. Recently, Fintech and other new resources have allowed for extended sub-prime lending and leveraging within the US (Source: cnbc.com).
When you combine the sub-prime mortgage, auto, personal loans, personal Fintech margin capabilities, and sub-AAA corporate debt levels, the total amount of at-risk subprime debt must exceed $2 trillion US Dollars. We believe this source of risk has been greatly underestimated in terms of risk to the Financial Sector over the next 12+ months (Source: zerohedge.com).
NON-100 LARGEST BANKS CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES
The current delinquency rate among the non-100 largest US banks for credit cards has already climbed well above the 2008-2010 peak levels. It appears subprime borrowers are already pushed well beyond their limits in terms of servicing current debt levels. This suggests a contraction in the credit market will likely take place over the next 24+ months as these at-risk borrowers default at greater rates. This could transition into the housing market and other sectors of the economy if multiple waves of sub-prime borrowers stress the US financial system because of the COVID-19 shutdown.
XLF FINANCIAL ETF INDEX DAILY CHART
Our research team believes the peak in the XLF ETF has already set up after the recent 47%+ rally from the March lows. The $27 price peak sets up directly between our two Fibonacci Daily upside price target (Peak) levels. We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days. The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
XLF FINANCIAL ETF INDEX WEEKLY CHART
This XLF Weekly chart highlights the recent rally and the “Gap” that recently filled. It is our belief that the range between the MAGENTA horizontal lines represents a very clear support/resistance level within this longer-term XLF chart. We believe that price will have to fall below $25 in order to initiate a deeper downside price move targeting recent low price levels or price will have to move above $27.50 in order to continue to rally. Currently, our researchers believe the downside potential has a much higher probability of success as we get closer to the end of Q2:2020.
If our research is correct and XLF falls below the $25 price level, we believe it will target at least $22 to $22.50 before finding some support. If it breaks below the $22 price level, it could fall well below the $20 price level again on weaker expectations.
These types of price swings can be incredible setups for skilled technical traders. Follow our research and learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. We recently executed a new swing trade for our members that is already showing great opportunity. Protect your capital and learn to trade proven technical setups with our dedicated team of researchers and traders.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain, and we closed out another winning trade on Friday.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--Will We See A Covid-19 Spike In The Next 3-5 Weeks?

State lockdowns lifting across the US .
businesses and public spaces opening back up .
Mass protests bringing thousands together in close quarters .
Will we see a resurgence in covid-19 infections as a result ?
Unknown at this moment , but we shouldn ’ t have long to wait .
Chris predicts we ’ ll know one way or the other within the next 3 to 5 weeks .
As the nation waits , we ’ ll undoubtedly see more symptoms of the social rifts that the pandemic has exacerbated .
Trust in authority has been badly shaken : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the “ garbage science ” tilting the scales towards Big Pharma ’ s interests , to the current protests against the police , to the deeply unfair repercussions of the Federal Reserve ’ s rescue of the rich — the populace is waking up to the fact that our “ leaders ’ ” actions are out of integrity with the public welfare .
Where will this growing unrest take us ?
Unknown at this point , but similar to covid-19 , we may not have long to wait to find out .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ free download of Peak Prosperity ’ s book Prosper !
.
Given its relevance to preparing for any kind of crisis — pandemic , social unrest , or otherwise — Chris and Adam are now making it available to the world for free during the national covid-19 lockdown :

by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity
State lockdowns lifting across the US. businesses and public spaces opening back up. Mass protests bringing thousands together in close quarters.
Will we see a resurgence in covid-19 infections as a result? Unknown at this moment, but we shouldn’t have long to wait. Chris predicts we’ll know one way or the other within the next 3 to 5 weeks.
As the nation waits, we’ll undoubtedly see more symptoms of the social rifts that the pandemic has exacerbated. Trust in authority has been badly shaken: from the response from the Administration/CDC/WHO, to the “garbage science” tilting the scales towards Big Pharma’s interests, to the current protests against the police, to the deeply unfair repercussions of the Federal Reserve’s rescue of the rich — the populace is waking up to the fact that our “leaders’” actions are out of integrity with the public welfare.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Where will this growing unrest take us? Unknown at this point, but similar to covid-19, we may not have long to wait to find out.
Don’t forget to get your free download of Peak Prosperity’s book Prosper!. Given its relevance to preparing for any kind of crisis — pandemic, social unrest, or otherwise — Chris and Adam are now making it available to the world for free during the national covid-19
lockdown:
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--The Italian Job covers unemployment.zombie banks and industrial production

Sometimes economic news makes you think of a country via its past history .
After all the Italian banks have plenty of expertise , if I may put it like that , in this area .
So perhaps a growth area for them in more ways than one .
There is a conceptual issue though as we mull why we always need “ bad- banks ” and whether the truth is that ordinary banks are bad ?
Also the Irish banking crisis taught us that the numbers are fed to us on a piece of string with notches and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accept rather than reality .
So get ready for the half a trillion to expand and that may get a little awkward if this from Kathimerini proves true .
If we focus now on the Italian banks there is of course the issue of the Veneto banks and Monte Paschi in particular .
Let me take you back 3 days over 3 years .
Back then I also pointed out the problems for the bailout vehicle called variously Atlante and Atlas .
Looking at Monte dei Paschi the share price is 1.4 Euros @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rights issues and the like compares to a pre credit crunch peak of around 8740 Euros according to my chart..
Some quite spectacular value destruction as we again mull what “ bad bank ” means and recall that in 2016 Prime Minister Renzi told people it was a good investment .
That is before we get to this from January 2012 on Mindful Money .
It was worth 19 Euros then and as it is worth 8.24 Euros now my description of it as a zombie bank was right , especially if we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subsidies in the meantime .
Oh and in case we had any doubts about the story I see this from ForexLive .
So they are informally looking at it then… .
This morning ’ s official release was always likely to be bad news .
The theme was unsurprisingly continued by the annual picture .
If we compare to 2015 we see that the calendar adjusted index was at 58.4 .
The breakdown shows that pharmaceuticals were affected least ( -6.7 % ) and clothing and textiles the most ( -80.5 % ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as I though the manufacture of masks and other PPE might help but in fact it did even worse than the transport sector ( -74 % ) .
On Monday Italy ’ s statisticians reminded us of our Girlfriend in a Coma theme .
Which was followed by this .
They point out it is difficult to collect data right now but were willing to have a go at a forecast .
I wonder how much of what is called domestic demand reflects the fall in tourism as the summer is already well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to visit ?
Here is the OECD version from earlier this week that highights the tourism issue .
As we know so little about what is happening right now the forecasts for 2021 are about as much use as a chocolate teapot in my opinion .
Switching back to Italy ’ s statisticians they seem to have doubts about their own unemployment numbers .
perhaps they read my post on the third of this month .
Anyway they have reported the unemployment rate at 6.3 % and I think it is more like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ switch tack to one of the consequences of all this which relates to the fact that Italy already had a large national debt in both relative and absolute terms .
If we use the OECD data as a framework we see that the debt to GDP ratio will be of the order of 160 to 170 % at the end of this year which looks rather Greek like , Now we see the real reason for the forecasted bounce back in 2021 which reduces the number to 150 % to 165 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ V-shaped ” recovery has nothing to do with believing in it , rather it is to make the debt metrics look better .
Again there are echoes of Greece here when Christine Lagarde was talking about “ Shock and Awe ” back in the day .
Remember when we were guided to a debt to GDP ratio of 120 % ?
That was to protect Italy ironically ( as well as Portugal ) .
That was then and this is now .
The game-changed in the meantime has been the fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policies and buying of the ECB .
So a benchmark yield that rose to 7 % in the last crisis is now 1.45 % as I type this .
Thus the previous concept of debt vigilante ’ s has been neutered and debt costs are low .
The catch is that the debt burden will soar and that does seem to have an impact if we think of the issue of Japanification .
Italy has already had its “ lost decade ” since it joined the Euro and the lack of economic growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For it to change I think we need reform of its structure and especially its zombie banks but instead we are being guided towards yet another bailout in what feels like a never-ended stream .
Let me leave you with some humour on the issue of bad banks from GreatLakesForex .

by Shaun Richards
Sometimes economic news makes you think of a country via its past history.
LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) – European Central Bank officials are drawing up a scheme to cope with potentially hundreds of billions of euros of unpaid loans in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
After all the Italian banks have plenty of expertise, if I may put it like that, in this area. So perhaps a growth area for them in more ways than one.
The amount of debt in the euro zone that is considered unlikely to ever be fully repaid already stands at more than half a trillion euros, including credit cards, car loans and mortgages, according to official statistics.
There is a conceptual issue though as we mull why we always need “bad- banks” and whether the truth is that ordinary banks are bad? Also the Irish banking crisis taught us that the numbers are fed to us on a piece of string with notches and are driven by what they think we will accept rather than reality. So get ready for the half a trillion to expand and that may get a little awkward if this from Kathimerini proves true.
Enria said the ECB was studying how banks could cope were the crisis to worsen. He said banks had more than 600 billion euros ($680 billion) of capital and this would probably be enough, unless there were a second wave of infections.
If we focus now on the Italian banks there is of course the issue of the Veneto banks and Monte Paschi in particular. Let me take you back 3 days over 3 years.
Italian banks are considering assisting in a rescue of troubled lenders Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca by pumping 1.2 billion euros (1.1 billion pounds) of private capital into the two regional banks, sources familiar with the matter said.
Good money after bad?
Italian banks, which have already pumped 3.4 billion euros into the two ailing rivals, had said until now that they would not stump up more money.
Back then I also pointed out the problems for the bailout vehicle called variously Atlante and Atlas. Looking at Monte dei Paschi the share price is 1.4 Euros which if we allow for the many rights issues and the like compares to a pre credit crunch peak of around 8740 Euros according to my chart.. Some quite spectacular value destruction as we again mull what “bad bank” means and recall that in 2016 Prime Minister Renzi told people it was a good investment. That is before we get to this from January 2012 on Mindful Money.
In October, Shaun Richards outlined a 13-step timeline for the collapse of a bank . He appeared on Sky News yesterday suggesting that Unicredit, Italy’s had now reached stage 3 of that process – i.e. “The Bank tries to raise more private capital in spite of it having no need for it”.
It was worth 19 Euros then and as it is worth 8.24 Euros now my description of it as a zombie bank was right, especially if we allow for all the aid packages and subsidies in the meantime.
Oh and in case we had any doubts about the story I see this from ForexLive.
European Commission says no formal work is underway for an EU ‘bad bank’
So they are informally looking at it then….
The Economy
This morning’s official release was always likely to be bad news.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In April 2020 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 19.1% compared with the
previous month. The change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three
months was -23.2%.
The theme was unsurprisingly continued by the annual picture.
The calendar adjusted industrial production index decreased by 42.5% compared with April 2019 (calendar
working days being 21 versus 20 days in April 2019).
The unadjusted industrial production index decreased by 40.7% compared with April 2019.
If we compare to 2015 we see that the calendar adjusted index was at 58.4. The breakdown shows that pharmaceuticals were affected least ( -6.7%) and clothing and textiles the most ( -80.5%). The latter was a slight surprise as I though the manufacture of masks and other PPE might help but in fact it did even worse than the transport sector ( -74%).
On Monday Italy’s statisticians reminded us of our Girlfriend in a Coma theme.
At the end of 2019, the Italian economy was in stagnation with few recovery signals coming from industrial production and external trade at the very beginning of 2020.
Which was followed by this.
Eventually, the conventional economic indicators assessing the dramatic fall of GDP in the first quarter 2020 (-5.3% q-o-q) were published.
They point out it is difficult to collect data right now but were willing to have a go at a forecast.
Under these assumptions, we forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 (-8.3%) followed by a recovery in 2021 (+4.6%, Table 1). This year, the fall of GDP will be determined mainly by domestic demand net of inventories (-7.2 p.p.) due to the contraction of household and NPISH consumption (-8.7%) and of investments (-12.5%). Net exports and inventories will also contribute negatively to GDP growth (respectively -0.3 p.p. and -0.8 p.p.).
I wonder how much of what is called domestic demand reflects the fall in tourism as the summer is already well underway and it is a delightful country to visit? Here is the OECD version from earlier this week that highights the tourism issue.
GDP is projected to fall by 14% in 2020 before recovering by 5.3% in 2021 if there is another virus outbreak
later this year (the double-hit scenario). If further outbreaks are avoided (the single-hit scenario), GDP is
projected to fall by 11.3% in 2020 and to recover by 7.7% in 2021. While Italy’s industrial production may
restart quickly as confinement measures are lifted, tourism and many consumer-related services are
projected to recover more gradually, weighing on demand
As we know so little about what is happening right now the forecasts for 2021 are about as much use as a chocolate teapot in my opinion.
Switching back to Italy’s statisticians they seem to have doubts about their own unemployment numbers. perhaps they read my post on the third of this month.
The trend of unemployment rate will be different because it reflects the ricomposition between unemployed and inactive people and the fall in hours worked.
Anyway they have reported the unemployment rate at 6.3% and I think it is more like 11%.
Comment
Now we need to switch tack to one of the consequences of all this which relates to the fact that Italy already had a large national debt in both relative and absolute terms. If we use the OECD data as a framework we see that the debt to GDP ratio will be of the order of 160 to 170% at the end of this year which looks rather Greek like, Now we see the real reason for the forecasted bounce back in 2021 which reduces the number to 150% to 165%. The establishment assumption that we will see a “V-shaped” recovery has nothing to do with believing in it,rather it is to make the debt metrics look better. Again there are echoes of Greece here when Christine Lagarde was talking about “Shock and Awe” back in the day. Remember when we were guided to a debt to GDP ratio of 120%? That was to protect Italy ironically ( as well as Portugal).
That was then and this is now. The game-changed in the meantime has been the fall in bond yields due mostly to the policies and buying of the ECB. So a benchmark yield that rose to 7% in the last crisis is now 1.45% as I type this. Thus the previous concept of debt vigilante’s has been neutered and debt costs are low. The catch is that the debt burden will soar and that does seem to have an impact if we think of the issue of Japanification. Italy has already had its “lost decade” since it joined the Euro and the lack of economic growth has been the real issue here. For it to change I think we need reform of its structure and especially its zombie banks but instead we are being guided towards yet another bailout in what feels like a never-ended stream. Let me leave you with some humour on the issue of bad banks from GreatLakesForex.
They should correct that statement to the actual fact that they are desperate to create a Good bank in the Eurozone.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-11--THE MSM IS NOT GIVING UP THE “SECOND WAVE” OF CORONAVIRUS NARRATIVE

Government puppets , the talking heads in media , are not giving up on the “ second wave ” of the coronavirus narrative .
This is something we should all be aware of because if we are not , they will try to use this to further decimate the livelihoods of people and lock everyone down again .
Many have said that there will be a second wave of infections , and the MSM has ramped up their reporting on this lately .
The right is blaming the protesters of police brutality while the left is blaming the protesters of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a lot of blame and the only thing media can agree on is that there will be another wave , and more force , violence , and interference in lives will be necessary to control the public .
The media needs your focus to be on “ fearing the second wave , ” and they ’ ve started the propaganda machine early .
Maybe .
Unless they try going to blame the protests for the “ second wave ” to get those on all sides of every issue ticked off and further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ divide , conquer , and rule ” dichotomy .
This is a massive psychological operation .
A massive game of chess .
The only way to win is to not play .
If we all stand up , their little game is over .
As the rioting narrative dies down , the media is going to have to pull out even more tricks to convince people to continue to stay on their knees subjugated to the government .
In fact , CNN said the second wave is the biggest threat to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigger threat than people obeying the commands of politicians ?
Hardly .
Other sites are saying there ’ s a “ huge spike ” in COVID-19 cases and it ’ s sparking “ panic ” in a hotspot .
We ’ ve been inundated with articles declaring the second wave is coming .
It could be coming in sooner than we expected .
Some in the liberty-movement have been expecting “ plandemic 2 ” around September , but the dismantling of the system is going forward at breakneck speed .
We need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teeny things you are allowed to do even sooner and accept contact tracing and vaccines in exchange for what was left of your freedom .
We ’ ve seen the media do this .
They put out pieces like this one from Yahoo titled Former FD Commissioner Gottlieb Sees ‘ A Lot of Risk of 2nd Coronavirus Wave.
’ This is intended to panic and make people fearful while priming them for another lockdown .
Not as many are interested in the coronavirus narrative , however , now that there are worldwide protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Berwick .
“ But they ’ re coming out with the next one soon .
And it was actually in the…UN document , we reported on that , it probably got tooken [ sic ] off YouTube already .
But , saying that they ’ re gon na do two sort of tests .
Sort of trial runs this year .
So we have the next one coming .
If we ’ re going to have any chance , we have to wake up lots of people .
”

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
Government puppets, the talking heads in media, are not giving up on the “second wave” of the coronavirus narrative. This is something we should all be aware of because if we are not, they will try to use this to further decimate the livelihoods of people and lock everyone down again.
Many have said that there will be a second wave of infections, and the MSM has ramped up their reporting on this lately. The right is blaming the protesters of police brutality while the left is blaming the protesters of the first lockdown. Regardless, there is a lot of blame and the only thing media can agree on is that there will be another wave, and more force, violence, and interference in lives will be necessary to control the public.
The media needs your focus to be on “fearing the second wave,” and they’ve started the propaganda machine early. Maybe. Unless they try going to blame the protests for the “second wave” to get those on all sides of every issue ticked off and further divided. We know they operate on a “divide, conquer, and rule” dichotomy. This is a massive psychological operation. A massive game of chess. The only way to win is to not play. If we all stand up, their little game is over.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As the rioting narrative dies down, the media is going to have to pull out even more tricks to convince people to continue to stay on their knees subjugated to the government. In fact, CNN said the second wave is the biggest threat to the economy. That’s a bigger threat than people obeying the commands of politicians? Hardly.
Other sites are saying there’s a “huge spike” in COVID-19 cases and it’s sparking “panic” in a hotspot. We’ve been inundated with articles declaring the second wave is coming. It could be coming in sooner than we expected. Some in the liberty-movement have been expecting “plandemic 2” around September, but the dismantling of the system is going forward at breakneck speed. We need to potentially expect governments to remove the few teeny things you are allowed to do even sooner and accept contact tracing and vaccines in exchange for what was left of your freedom.
We’ve seen the media do this. They put out pieces like this one from Yahoo titled Former FD Commissioner Gottlieb Sees ‘A Lot of Risk of 2nd Coronavirus Wave.’ This is intended to panic and make people fearful while priming them for another lockdown. Not as many are interested in the coronavirus narrative, however, now that there are worldwide protests.
Gottlieb, an appointee of President Trump who ran the FDA from 2017-2019, warned that because these public demonstrations tend to include large numbers of young people, many of whom are more likely to appear asymptomatic even if contagious, those exposed to the coronavirus at a protest could have no idea. –Yahoo
This is mostly a test, says Berwick. “But they’re coming out with the next one soon. And it was actually in the…UN document, we reported on that, it probably got tooken [sic] off YouTube already. But, saying that they’re gonna do two sort of tests. Sort of trial runs this year. So we have the next one coming. If we’re going to have any chance, we have to wake up lots of people.”