investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Who Bears The Brunt Of This Recession?

Who Bears The Brunt Of This Recession?

Redbook same store sales growth fell one tenth to 2.1 % in the week of October 3rd .
Growth is still low .
It ’ s better than where it was at the worst of the recession and late in the summer , but that ’ s not saying much .
Deloitte is projecting November to January sales growth will be just 1 % to 1.5 % .
That growth is coming from online sales which are projected to rise 30 % .
ShopperTrek expects retail traffic in stores to fall 22 % to 25 % .
That because of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to gather in large crowds .
This is bad for Black Friday which should have a lower percentage of holiday sales compared to most years .
Cyber Monday will be the key date to watch .
The holiday shopping season isn ’ t long , but the timeline will be interesting .
On the one hand , the virus could get worse as people gather indoors in the late fall and early winter because of colder weather .
On the other hand , the virus could become less deadly with better treatments .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests by the end of the year which could limit the spread .
The world is undoubtedly heading into this winter with more fire power to treat and limit COVID-19 as compared to 10 months ago .
The younger a person is , the less likely they are to lower their spending on travel and entertainment .
That makes sense because younger people are less at risk to dying from the virus .
There is over a 10 point spread between the decline in spending on travel and entertainment by millennials/gen z versus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 % though .
We don ’ t want to minimize the pain industries are going through .
The chart above shows this in more depth .
As you can see , movie theaters are barely seeing any spending at all , while specialty food and beverage sales are up over 50 % .
Movie theaters are in trouble because production companies aren ’ t releasing new films since theaters aren ’ t being opened in the big markets : California and New York .
It makes more sense to delay the release @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the theaters are open .
It would benefit the theaters greatly if we knew exactly when it will be safe because they have already delayed reopening a few times .
Many independent theaters are only a few weeks away from bankruptcy .
The key is to avoid the big companies from getting into trouble as it would lead to more permanent job losses .
The industry is in modest secular decline because of streaming , but there would have been many years left for these jobs if it wasn ’ t for this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6.493 million which was down from 6.697 million and beat estimates for 6.25 million .
It ’ s not the best for openings to fall .
This was the first decline since the recovery started .
However , recognize that this stat almost fully recovered prior to this decline as there were 7.004 million openings in February .
In contrast , it took about 5 years for openings to recover after the last recession .
Hires were very volatile in this recession and recovery as the chart below shows .
Hires in May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In this report , hires increased very slightly to 5.919 million which is slightly higher than where they were before the recession .
This was the quickest labor market recovery ever .
The leisure and hospitality industry had a wild ride this year as hires were 1.091 million in February , 490,000 in April , 1.759 million in June , and now they are 955,000 in August .
With all the jobs that were lost , we need to see more hirings than there were in August .
The September JOLTS report might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weakness than normal for that time of year according to the BLS report .
It ’ s very obvious we need to see widespread adoption of a vaccine , better treatments , and better testing before this industry gets back to normal .
The good news is the chief scientific advisor for Operation Warp Speed in the Trump Administration stated there will be 1 or 2 vaccines in a month or two ( November to December ) which can be given to 30 million people .
There is confidence in vaccines coming very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7 day average of new cases as of September 15th was 8,512 , yet the current 7 day average of new deaths is only 68 .
We used a 3 week delay to compare the 2 data points because it takes a few weeks to die after contracting the virus .
As you can tell , the death rate has fallen sharply from where it was in March/April .
The key is to get the American death rate down as its 7 day average is still 719 .
Married women lost 949,000 jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1.2 million jobs .
That ’ s because of the school delay .
The good news is many schools have since reopened .
Of course , many kids are going to school online , so many moms still need to stay home with their kids .
This is yet another example of where getting more testing , vaccines , and better treatments will allow the economy to go back to normal .
Just because the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.9 % and the stock market is near its record high , doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normalcy .
The consumer is doing okay , but there isn ’ t robust enough spending to inspire high estimates for this holiday shopping season .
Trump suggested there won ’ t be a stimulus until after the election .
The good news is better treatments , testing , and vaccines are coming soon .
The bad news is independent movie theaters are about to go bankrupt .
We need COVID-19 to be handled before the leisure and hospitality industry and married women can get back to normal .
We ’ ve already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France even though it has more new cases than the outbreak in the spring ( because of more testing ) .
The number of new deaths has fallen to 719 in America which is too high for the economy to get back to normal .

by UPFINA
Redbook same store sales growth fell one tenth to 2.1% in the week of October 3rd. Growth is still low. It’s better than where it was at the worst of the recession and late in the summer, but that’s not saying much. Deloitte is projecting November to January sales growth will be just 1% to 1.5%. That growth is coming from online sales which are projected to rise 30%. ShopperTrek expects retail traffic in stores to fall 22% to 25%. That because of the virus. It’s irresponsible to gather in large crowds. This is bad for Black Friday which should have a lower percentage of holiday sales compared to most years.
Cyber Monday will be the key date to watch. The holiday shopping season isn’t long, but the timeline will be interesting. On the one hand, the virus could get worse as people gather indoors in the late fall and early winter because of colder weather. On the other hand, the virus could become less deadly with better treatments. There are supposed to be 150 million tests by the end of the year which could limit the spread. The world is undoubtedly heading into this winter with more fire power to treat and limit COVID-19 as compared to 10 months ago.
The younger a person is, the less likely they are to lower their spending on travel and entertainment. That makes sense because younger people are less at risk to dying from the virus. There is over a 10 point spread between the decline in spending on travel and entertainment by millennials/gen z versus boomers. Both are still down over 40% though. We don’t want to minimize the pain industries are going through.
The chart above shows this in more depth. As you can see, movie theaters are barely seeing any spending at all, while specialty food and beverage sales are up over 50%. Movie theaters are in trouble because production companies aren’t releasing new films since theaters aren’t being opened in the big markets: California and New York. It makes more sense to delay the release of these movies until 2021 when all the theaters are open.
It would benefit the theaters greatly if we knew exactly when it will be safe because they have already delayed reopening a few times. Many independent theaters are only a few weeks away from bankruptcy. The key is to avoid the big companies from getting into trouble as it would lead to more permanent job losses. The industry is in modest secular decline because of streaming, but there would have been many years left for these jobs if it wasn’t for this virus.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Job Openings Decline As Expected
In August job openings were 6.493 million which was down from 6.697 million and beat estimates for 6.25 million. It’s not the best for openings to fall. This was the first decline since the recovery started. However, recognize that this stat almost fully recovered prior to this decline as there were 7.004 million openings in February. In contrast, it took about 5 years for openings to recover after the last recession. Hires were very volatile in this recession and recovery as the chart below shows. Hires in May were already above that of February.
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 6.5 Million in August t.co/b1a8pQDEfV pic.twitter.com/gE32ZCFNVi — Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 6, 2020
In this report, hires increased very slightly to 5.919 million which is slightly higher than where they were before the recession. This was the quickest labor market recovery ever. The leisure and hospitality industry had a wild ride this year as hires were 1.091 million in February, 490,000 in April, 1.759 million in June, and now they are 955,000 in August. With all the jobs that were lost, we need to see more hirings than there were in August. The September JOLTS report might be better as the industry had less weakness than normal for that time of year according to the BLS report.
It’s very obvious we need to see widespread adoption of a vaccine, better treatments, and better testing before this industry gets back to normal. The good news is the chief scientific advisor for Operation Warp Speed in the Trump Administration stated there will be 1 or 2 vaccines in a month or two (November to December) which can be given to 30 million people.
There is confidence in vaccines coming very soon. Furthermore, in France the 7 day average of new cases as of September 15th was 8,512, yet the current 7 day average of new deaths is only 68. We used a 3 week delay to compare the 2 data points because it takes a few weeks to die after contracting the virus. As you can tell, the death rate has fallen sharply from where it was in March/April. The key is to get the American death rate down as its 7 day average is still 719.
School Delay Hurts Female Employment
Married women lost 949,000 jobs in September, while single men gained 1.2 million jobs. That’s because of the school delay. The good news is many schools have since reopened. Of course, many kids are going to school online, so many moms still need to stay home with their kids. This is yet another example of where getting more testing, vaccines, and better treatments will allow the economy to go back to normal. Just because the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.9% and the stock market is near its record high, doesn’t mean we are close to normalcy.
Women are getting the worst of this recession
But it turns out there’s a huge marriage story we’ve been missing Married women lost almost 1 million jobs last month.
(single men gained 1.2 million)t.co/IE4UEtTbp2 1/ pic.twitter.com/MozPMf42Yr — Michael Madowitz (@mikemadowitz) October 6, 2020
Conclusion
The consumer is doing okay, but there isn’t robust enough spending to inspire high estimates for this holiday shopping season. Trump suggested there won’t be a stimulus until after the election. The good news is better treatments, testing, and vaccines are coming soon. The bad news is independent movie theaters are about to go bankrupt. We need COVID-19 to be handled before the leisure and hospitality industry and married women can get back to normal. We’ve already seen the death rate kept low in France even though it has more new cases than the outbreak in the spring (because of more testing). The number of new deaths has fallen to 719 in America which is too high for the economy to get back to normal.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--A long read on analyst ratings, their motivations, and whether you can trust them

Background I had worked on the trading floor of a sell-side firm , but not in any sales , trading or research capacity .
The division I was part of is engaged in all activities related to capital markets : equity sales , equity trading , equity research , bond trading , investment banking , etc .
I had built , integrated , and managed the software they use for most of their business activities .
The equity sell-side cycle : equity research team This team consists of research analysts with 1 or 2 associates assigned to each of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the business .
At its core , the analysts initiate stock ratings ( ie buy , sell , hold ) and price targets , and regularly publish research articles for distribution by the sales team , trading team , and CRM-maintained email distribution lists to the buy-side clients for pre-earnings , post-earnings , and any otherwise large moves in the stock .
These articles are distributed for free with the intent of building rapport between the buy-side and the analyst , for future upselling .
Each analyst owns a specific vertical ( ie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and maintains the theses on the stocks in his coverage universe , meanwhile a much lower-compensated associate performs most of the heavy lifting to collect data and elaborate on the thesis .
The analyst would often travel to specific cities or regions to meet with buy-side clients in their corporate offices in order to discuss their stock ratings .
Because of stringent financial regulations around how a buy-side client may compensate for sell-side services ( due to concerns over breach of fiduciary duty , unjustifiable high maintenance fees , etc ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , services , or meals provided by the buy-side , the sell-side firm pays for all travel and meals .
For a satisfied buy-side client to compensate for the services provided , they would send trade desk flows to our trading desk which is fulfilled via dark pools and phone calls ; the public exchange is a last resort if the buy-side client updates the order for imminent execution .
The equity sell-side cycle : equity trading team Traders execute trades submitted to them by buy-side clients as an upsold service for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ live in and stare at the Bloomberg terminal from sun up to market close .
They do not trade after-hours , and they do not often hold the shares on their books if they can help it .
This is how your broker typically operates , by finding the other side of the trade .
On the rare occasion that the trader does decide to fulfill the trade on the books , an accompanying options position is initiated to hedge the delta ; the options position depends on imminent risks on the event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , traders are assigned to accounts which means they own the order flow for that account and receive a part of the commission for trade execution .
They tend to have a good idea who ’ s a buyer and seller at certain levels .
On some occasions , the trader will have to cooperate with another in-house trader in order to find the other side of the order .
In such ideal arrangements , both traders get paid and the firm is happy to be involved in both sides .
Traders rarely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel tend to be in more senior position and would accompany an analyst on his trip in order to talk client relationship , business development , etc .
The equity sell-side cycle : equity sales team The equity salespeople talk more than anyone else and make most of the noise on the trading floor when a trader is not screaming profanities .
Their job is to call new and existing clients and pitch an analyst report .
If they do not hook their audience within seconds of the pitch , they have lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ salesperson ’ s value-add .
When not pitching analyst reports , the salesperson is pitching meetings with the analyst , meetings with corporate execs at our hosted conferences , private meetings with corporate execs in the client ’ s office to talk the company ( NDR , or non-deal roadshow ) or to raise money through share offerings ( DR , or deal roadshow ) .
The latter three are corporate access services which are highly valued and sought after by the buy-side , and therefore fill up very quickly .
Anyone would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 caller questions that a company takes on their quarterly earnings call .
These meetings offer the buy-side clients 30-60 minutes of face-to-face with these same executives , and is an opportunity to inform their investment decision in a way that their competitors can not .
These services are offered for free upfront , and are indirectly compensated for via trade desk flow .
How it all comes together , and why the game is rigged If you have asked yourself any of the following questions while reading this , then you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : • Why would the CEO of a publicly traded company travel with our research analyst instead of another analyst from another firm ?
• How are the highly sought-after corporate access events with corporate execs filled or prioritized ?
• Why is that most analysts have > 90 % buy ratings , a few neutral ratings , and only a few to no sell ratings ?
• How does this influence the sell-side management to pressure research analysts on their stock theses ?
The top priority of the sell-side is to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they have to provide a value to the buy-side that makes them money in their investment decisions .
In short , this means that management always pressures the research analysts to initiate buy ratings on stocks ( even if they believe these stocks will tank ) , for the sole purpose of establishing a relationship with the CXO of these companies .
A positive relationship means meetings to fill , shares for the trade desk to execute as compensation , and money for the sell-side to keep the cycle going .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t really exist : you can ’ t cozy up to CXOs when you ’ re initiate buy/sell recommendations on ETFs .
The buy-side is not stupid .
They understand this business model .
However , it ’ s precisely because of this business model that they love sell-side services .
Unless you ’ re large holder of the stock , you won ’ t ever get into corporate access ( unless it ’ s some undersubscribed small cap ) .
The corporate execs ’ goal in these meetings is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hold/buy more shares to lift the stock .
It is because of this business model that analysts that are often right or often wrong make the most money for the sell-side .
In fact , during my time there , our most highly demanded analyst was one who was wrong over 80 % of the time , followed by one who was right over 70 % of the time .
In being wrong almost all the time , this works out great for all parties involved : the research analyst has better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which makes it easier to cozy up to CXOs for corporate access events ; the CXOs has better access to fund managers to project strength in private meetings ; the analyst can be used as a counterweight and the buy-side often does exactly the opposite of each stock buy rating ( as evidenced by sell order flows reaching our desk despite the buy ratings ) .
Keep this in mind whenever you following an online tracker for an analyst track record – these guys who always get it wrong often get compensated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sell ratings face heavy internal scrutiny from the sell-side management as they are often viewed as a death sentence for any relationship between the sell-side and corporate execs .
Management does not care about the analyst ’ s feelings on the stock – if you like or hate it so much , trade it in your own account is how they see it .
Nevertheless , a sell rating can be viewed as either a strong conviction , or a chess match to flip the corporate exec .
Management ’ s strategy would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record .
For an analyst that is often right , he has more freedom to initiate a sell rating as a strong conviction idea in order to maintain that record which the buy-side values .
Otherwise , management may see it fit to initiate a sell rating because Wall Street is saturated with buy ratings and you can not stand out in the pack by joining the pack .
This kind of maneuver is sometimes successful in getting the attention of the CXOs at the company and initiating a conversation in order to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in exchange for some service or corporate access .
TLDR ; The game is rigged .
Don ’ t believe the majority of sell-side analyst ratings .
There is a reason why an overwhelming majority of analyst ratings are buy ratings , and it is not just because markets tend to be bullish .
They exist predominately to build relationships and upsell services .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any investment decision .

by stinkietoe
Background
I had worked on the trading floor of a sell-side firm, but not in any sales, trading or research capacity. The division I was part of is engaged in all activities related to capital markets: equity sales, equity trading, equity research, bond trading, investment banking, etc. I had built, integrated, and managed the software they use for most of their business activities.
The equity sell-side cycle: equity research team
This team consists of research analysts with 1 or 2 associates assigned to each of them, and is the cost center of the business. At its core, the analysts initiate stock ratings (ie buy, sell, hold) and price targets, and regularly publish research articles for distribution by the sales team, trading team, and CRM-maintained email distribution lists to the buy-side clients for pre-earnings, post-earnings, and any otherwise large moves in the stock. These articles are distributed for free with the intent of building rapport between the buy-side and the analyst, for future upselling. Each analyst owns a specific vertical (ie technology, healthcare, financials, etc) and maintains the theses on the stocks in his coverage universe, meanwhile a much lower-compensated associate performs most of the heavy lifting to collect data and elaborate on the thesis.
The analyst would often travel to specific cities or regions to meet with buy-side clients in their corporate offices in order to discuss their stock ratings. Because of stringent financial regulations around how a buy-side client may compensate for sell-side services (due to concerns over breach of fiduciary duty, unjustifiable high maintenance fees, etc) and the overwhelming paperwork involved in documenting gifts, services, or meals provided by the buy-side, the sell-side firm pays for all travel and meals. For a satisfied buy-side client to compensate for the services provided, they would send trade desk flows to our trading desk which is fulfilled via dark pools and phone calls; the public exchange is a last resort if the buy-side client updates the order for imminent execution.
The equity sell-side cycle: equity trading team
Traders execute trades submitted to them by buy-side clients as an upsold service for the value provided by the analyst. They live in and stare at the Bloomberg terminal from sun up to market close. They do not trade after-hours, and they do not often hold the shares on their books if they can help it. This is how your broker typically operates, by finding the other side of the trade. On the rare occasion that the trader does decide to fulfill the trade on the books, an accompanying options position is initiated to hedge the delta; the options position depends on imminent risks on the event horizon.
Unlike the equity research team, traders are assigned to accounts which means they own the order flow for that account and receive a part of the commission for trade execution. They tend to have a good idea who’s a buyer and seller at certain levels. On some occasions, the trader will have to cooperate with another in-house trader in order to find the other side of the order. In such ideal arrangements, both traders get paid and the firm is happy to be involved in both sides.
Traders rarely travel – and the ones who do travel tend to be in more senior position and would accompany an analyst on his trip in order to talk client relationship, business development, etc.
The equity sell-side cycle: equity sales team
The equity salespeople talk more than anyone else and make most of the noise on the trading floor when a trader is not screaming profanities. Their job is to call new and existing clients and pitch an analyst report. If they do not hook their audience within seconds of the pitch, they have lost the client interest and opinion in the salesperson’s value-add. When not pitching analyst reports, the salesperson is pitching meetings with the analyst, meetings with corporate execs at our hosted conferences, private meetings with corporate execs in the client’s office to talk the company (NDR, or non-deal roadshow) or to raise money through share offerings (DR, or deal roadshow). The latter three are corporate access services which are highly valued and sought after by the buy-side, and therefore fill up very quickly. Anyone would be lucky to be 1 of the 3 caller questions that a company takes on their quarterly earnings call. These meetings offer the buy-side clients 30-60 minutes of face-to-face with these same executives, and is an opportunity to inform their investment decision in a way that their competitors cannot.
These services are offered for free upfront, and are indirectly compensated for via trade desk flow.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
How it all comes together, and why the game is rigged
If you have asked yourself any of the following questions while reading this, then you’re starting to get the bigger picture:
Why would the CEO of a publicly traded company travel with our research analyst instead of another analyst from another firm?
How are the highly sought-after corporate access events with corporate execs filled or prioritized?
Why is that most analysts have >90% buy ratings, a few neutral ratings, and only a few to no sell ratings?
How does this influence the sell-side management to pressure research analysts on their stock theses?
The top priority of the sell-side is to make money. In order to make money, they have to provide a value to the buy-side that makes them money in their investment decisions.
In short, this means that management always pressures the research analysts to initiate buy ratings on stocks (even if they believe these stocks will tank), for the sole purpose of establishing a relationship with the CXO of these companies. A positive relationship means meetings to fill, shares for the trade desk to execute as compensation, and money for the sell-side to keep the cycle going. This is also why sector or industry analysts don’t really exist: you can’t cozy up to CXOs when you’re initiate buy/sell recommendations on ETFs.
The buy-side is not stupid. They understand this business model. However, it’s precisely because of this business model that they love sell-side services. Unless you’re large holder of the stock, you won’t ever get into corporate access (unless it’s some undersubscribed small cap). The corporate execs’ goal in these meetings is to project confidence and get the buy-side fund to hold/buy more shares to lift the stock.
It is because of this business model that analysts that are often right or often wrong make the most money for the sell-side. In fact, during my time there, our most highly demanded analyst was one who was wrong over 80% of the time, followed by one who was right over 70% of the time. In being wrong almost all the time, this works out great for all parties involved: the research analyst has better corporate penetration because the stock is struggling, which makes it easier to cozy up to CXOs for corporate access events; the CXOs has better access to fund managers to project strength in private meetings; the analyst can be used as a counterweight and the buy-side often does exactly the opposite of each stock buy rating (as evidenced by sell order flows reaching our desk despite the buy ratings). Keep this in mind whenever you following an online tracker for an analyst track record – these guys who always get it wrong often get compensated the most.
On the flipside, sell ratings face heavy internal scrutiny from the sell-side management as they are often viewed as a death sentence for any relationship between the sell-side and corporate execs. Management does not care about the analyst’s feelings on the stock – if you like or hate it so much, trade it in your own account is how they see it.
Nevertheless, a sell rating can be viewed as either a strong conviction, or a chess match to flip the corporate exec. Management’s strategy would depend on the analyst’s track record. For an analyst that is often right, he has more freedom to initiate a sell rating as a strong conviction idea in order to maintain that record which the buy-side values. Otherwise, management may see it fit to initiate a sell rating because Wall Street is saturated with buy ratings and you cannot stand out in the pack by joining the pack. This kind of maneuver is sometimes successful in getting the attention of the CXOs at the company and initiating a conversation in order to flip it into a buy rating, in exchange for some service or corporate access.
TLDR; The game is rigged. Don’t believe the majority of sell-side analyst ratings. There is a reason why an overwhelming majority of analyst ratings are buy ratings, and it is not just because markets tend to be bullish. They exist predominately to build relationships and upsell services.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--First House – One Year In Expenses

First House – One Year In Expenses

Hey everyone , it ’ s been a year since my wife and I moved into our first home and I wanted to post the numbers for what we incurred with expenses throughout the year in the hopes of giving others some insight into things to look out for when buying a house .
Some of these expenses weren ’ t expected to happen so quickly but we were lucky enough to saved for a rainy day .
This is our first home , and it was a foreclosure that we picked up from a bank that had been fixed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the previous owners was that they liked a variety of drugs more than they liked their mortgage payment .
The owners before that also had problems with drugs , our neighbors have been able to give us this information on the previous owners .
That doesn ’ t mean much aside from knowing that they weren ’ t people who likely spent a lot of money/time keeping the house in good shape .
I rounded all of the expenses up/down to the nearest dollar .
You ’ ll notice some things weren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ geared towards things we wanted ( looking at you Nest doorbell ) .
I included them in the list to help others with the little things that come up along the way that might not be anticipated .
These items are bold .
We were able to put 20 % down and avoided PMI , the house was purchased for $ 115,000 with a 30 year fixed rate at 4 % .
We are in the process of refinancing to a 15 year at 2.5 % ; it is costing us $ 1,500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t included in these numbers .
Edit 2 : This post has gotten a bit of exposure and I wanted to add some info to help clear things up for new home owners .
• Plan for the bad things ( e.g have an emergency fund ) • Get a first/second/third quote on things to fix , especially large ticket items • Things like AC/central air aren ’ t needed for some people , in my case a window AC unit could have sufficed if I wanted it to • Knowledge of home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not being good with plumbing , electrical work , pouring cement , etc cost me a lot • Foreclosures can cost more than a newer house , any house can have unforeseen issues , buy a house you can afford • If you have old stuff that works then keep and use it , new stuff always costs more than you might want to spend This list is just a list of things that we purchased ; it ’ s pretty easy to spot the things that could have been put off for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need a couch that cost what we got ) .
Also , I really am jealous of those people who have the skill-set and time to do things themselves or are in a situation to not worry about buying cheaper houses .
A decade ago I was in financial trouble and felt like I would never find a way out .
I ’ ve since made the decision to never be a slave to debt and outside of this house I pay for everything without financing .
It ’ s been a struggle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ giving up and succumbing to the tougher lifestyle , but I didn ’ t .
It ’ s possible to dig yourself out of those holes .
I appreciate all of the thoughtful comments and for those that have asked the tough questions .

by mythicaltimes
Hey everyone, it’s been a year since my wife and I moved into our first home and I wanted to post the numbers for what we incurred with expenses throughout the year in the hopes of giving others some insight into things to look out for when buying a house. Some of these expenses weren’t expected to happen so quickly but we were lucky enough to saved for a rainy day. This is our first home, and it was a foreclosure that we picked up from a bank that had been fixed up. The only thing we knew about the previous owners was that they liked a variety of drugs more than they liked their mortgage payment. The owners before that also had problems with drugs, our neighbors have been able to give us this information on the previous owners. That doesn’t mean much aside from knowing that they weren’t people who likely spent a lot of money/time keeping the house in good shape.
I rounded all of the expenses up/down to the nearest dollar. You’ll notice some things weren’t really necessary and were more geared towards things we wanted (looking at you Nest doorbell). I included them in the list to help others with the little things that come up along the way that might not be anticipated. These items are bold.
We were able to put 20% down and avoided PMI, the house was purchased for $115,000 with a 30 year fixed rate at 4%. We are in the process of refinancing to a 15 year at 2.5%; it is costing us $1,500 to do that refinance and isn’t included in these numbers.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Name Cost Notes Roof $6,675.00 Our inspector told us the roof was fine when we closed on the house, our insurance provider said to get it replaced for them to cover the house Air Conditioner $3,500.00 Central Air Couch $1,780.00 Cement pathway between house and garage $1,500.00 Previously a decorative pathway that was in shambles Fridge $1,000.00 New Side garage door + New screen door for side of house + installation $928.00 Cement $800.00 City required the sidewalk to be fixed before we could move in Lights $740.00 The previous lights were moldy and had electrical issues from misuse Stove $600.00 Air Ducts Cleaned $550.00 We heard this was a good idea prior to moving in Plumber $550.00 Leaky pipe in the basement that led to the outdoor faucet Lawn Mower $410.00 Toilet $361.00 Previous toilet was leaking Dryer Hookup $350.00 Garage Door Motor $350.00 The garage door motor failed shortly after we moved in Ceiling Fans $200.00 Safe $200.00 Fence Paint $200.00 Nest doorbell $200.00 Inside House paint $200.00 Office Chair $190.00 Tree Stump Removal $180.00 A tree was beside the house and it’s roots/branches were going to quickly become a problem Vacuum $170.00 Thermostat $169.00 Mini fridge $160.00 Modem $160.00 Electrical Breaker $150.00 Spider Exterminator $150.00 Curtains $150.00 Camera for house $120.00 Leaf blower $99.00 Garden Soil $90.00 Trimmer $80.00 Wood for Fence $80.00 Electronic door lock $50.00 Plants $50.00 Garden Hose $50.00 Door Locks $40.00 Broken Window $40.00 This was required to be fixed by the city within 90 days of moving in Vanity $40.00 Window Screen $35.00 Light bulbs $32.00 Misc Yard Supplies(weed killer/dirt, etc) $30.00 Top Soil $20.00 Garage Door opener/re-programmed $16.00 Gutter drains $16.00 Total $23,461.00
Edit, Location is Detroit, Michigan. 1,200 sqft.
Edit 2: This post has gotten a bit of exposure and I wanted to add some info to help clear things up for new home owners.
Plan for the bad things (e.g have an emergency fund)
Get a first/second/third quote on things to fix, especially large ticket items
Things like AC/central air aren’t needed for some people, in my case a window AC unit could have sufficed if I wanted it to
Knowledge of home maintenance can save thousands of dollars; not being good with plumbing, electrical work, pouring cement, etc cost me a lot
Foreclosures can cost more than a newer house, any house can have unforeseen issues, buy a house you can afford
If you have old stuff that works then keep and use it, new stuff always costs more than you might want to spend
This list is just a list of things that we purchased; it’s pretty easy to spot the things that could have been put off for a little bit (not everyone would need a couch that cost what we got). Also, I really am jealous of those people who have the skill-set and time to do things themselves or are in a situation to not worry about buying cheaper houses. A decade ago I was in financial trouble and felt like I would never find a way out. I’ve since made the decision to never be a slave to debt and outside of this house I pay for everything without financing. It’s been a struggle, there were times I thought about giving up and succumbing to the tougher lifestyle, but I didn’t. It’s possible to dig yourself out of those holes. I appreciate all of the thoughtful comments and for those that have asked the tough questions.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--LendingClub closing its core notes platform

This is a dramatic change in LendingClub ’ s business .
It is no longer going to be involved in @ @ @ @ @ eliminates another source of positive returns for investors .
The company claims it will offer @ @ @ @ @ preferential access to a new high-yield savings account , but the rate is unspecified and @ @ @ @ @ near the 5-7 % return offered through peer-to-peer lending .

www.crowdfundinsider.com/2020/10/167680-lendingclub-files-8-k-indicating-it-will-cease-offering-and-selling-retail-notes/
This is a dramatic change in LendingClub’s business. It is no longer going to be involved in peer-to-peer lending.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It also eliminates another source of positive returns for investors. The company claims it will offer current investors on the platform preferential access to a new high-yield savings account, but the rate is unspecified and is unlikely to be anywhere near the 5-7% return offered through peer-to-peer lending.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--The price of Lumber is down 50% from its high in late August, now down on the year.

The price of Lumber is down 50 % from its high in late August , now down on the year @ @ @ @ @ it has just collapsed pic.twitter.com/m6sBdXavdw A $ 4.9m bear put spread was placed on $ @ @ @ @ @ 90K of 18 Dec'20 $ 285 puts and sold the same number of $ 280 @ @ @ @ @ lands below $ 280 by expiration , the trade will generate 825 % return and @ @ @ @ @ 40.1m .
Is this a hedge or a bearish bet ?
U decide .
pic.twitter.com/JTsLTfcWX1

The price of Lumber is down 50% from its high in late August, now down on the year. $LUMBER pic.twitter.com/HHLWGkvplP
Today it has just collapsed pic.twitter.com/m6sBdXavdw
A $4.9m bear put spread was placed on $SPY today: someone bought 90K of 18 Dec'20 $285 puts and sold the same number of $280 puts. If $SPY lands below $280 by expiration, the trade will generate 825% return and turn $4.9m into $40.1m.
Is this a hedge or a bearish bet? U decide. pic.twitter.com/JTsLTfcWX1
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) October 7, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--BIDEN Says COPS Need a PSYCHIATRIST To go With THEM on ANY 911 CALL!

And America is seriously considering electing this fool ?
BIDEN : If a police officer “ goes on a 911 @ @ @ @ @ better if he or she has with them a psychologist or psychiatrist .
”

And America is seriously considering electing this fool?
BIDEN: If a police officer “goes on a 911 call, it’s better if he or she has with them a psychologist or psychiatrist.”
pic.twitter.com/sVQGJDic0r
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) October 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Every Company In and Out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1928

View the full-size version of this infographic .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) is reported on daily by every major finance and media platform—a testament to its importance and relevance in global financial markets .
The market benchmark has a rich history embedded alongside America ’ s rise as a global superpower in the 20th century , and the inflows and outflows of companies on the 30 stock index coincide with broader secular trends .
For example , the delisting of many industrial stocks over time encapsulates America ’ s transition towards a service-based economy .
Meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last few decades paints a similar picture of change .
Today ’ s infographic looks at Dow data spanning over nine decades , all the way back to the tail end of the Roaring Twenties .
An increasingly competitive and accelerating business landscape results in greater churn for stock market indices .
In fact , in the 92 years of activity visualized for the DJIA , there were 93 changes in its composition .
This is not surprising , as the average duration of a company ’ s tenure on American indices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 63 % of Dow changes occurred in the second half of the 92 year sample period .
The current iteration of the DJIA includes some long-serving constituents , with the average length of companies in the index sitting at 20 years .
General Electric was the last standing member of the original group from 1928 , but in 2018 , they were replaced by Walgreens .
2020 has also brought with it some fresh faces , including three changes so far .
They include Salesforce for ExxonMobil , Amgen for Pfizer , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Here ’ s a full list of the current companies in the index : Although all the stocks in the DJIA are intended to be in line with broader economic trends , the similarities end there .
For some DJIA stocks , 2020 has brought growth and opportunity—for others , quite the opposite .
YTD stock price performances range vastly from a high of 55 % to a low of -49 % .
Perhaps it serves as no surprise that the best performing companies serve in the tech space like Apple , Microsoft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performing are the likes of Boeing and Chevron .
The three changes in 2020 can best be described as modernizing the Dow .
The delistings include businesses in industries such as Aerospace & Defense and Big Pharma .
But the most monumental exit ?
ExxonMobil , which was once the biggest company by market capitalization in America .
Their fall from grace best symbolizes the state and direction the world is headed towards .

by visualcapitalist
View the full-size version of this infographic.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is reported on daily by every major finance and media platform—a testament to its importance and relevance in global financial markets.
The market benchmark has a rich history embedded alongside America’s rise as a global superpower in the 20th century, and the inflows and outflows of companies on the 30 stock index coincide with broader secular trends. For example, the delisting of many industrial stocks over time encapsulates America’s transition towards a service-based economy. Meanwhile, the addition of tech companies in the last few decades paints a similar picture of change.
Today’s infographic looks at Dow data spanning over nine decades, all the way back to the tail end of the Roaring Twenties.
Crank Up The Volatility
An increasingly competitive and accelerating business landscape results in greater churn for stock market indices.
In fact, in the 92 years of activity visualized for the DJIA, there were 93 changes in its composition. This is not surprising, as the average duration of a company’s tenure on American indices has been trending down for decades—that said, 63% of Dow changes occurred in the second half of the 92 year sample period.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The current iteration of the DJIA includes some long-serving constituents, with the average length of companies in the index sitting at 20 years. General Electric was the last standing member of the original group from 1928, but in 2018, they were replaced by Walgreens.
2020 has also brought with it some fresh faces, including three changes so far. They include Salesforce for ExxonMobil, Amgen for Pfizer, and Honeywell International for United Technologies. Here’s a full list of the current companies in the index:
Although all the stocks in the DJIA are intended to be in line with broader economic trends, the similarities end there. For some DJIA stocks, 2020 has brought growth and opportunity—for others, quite the opposite.
YTD stock price performances range vastly from a high of 55% to a low of -49%. Perhaps it serves as no surprise that the best performing companies serve in the tech space like Apple, Microsoft, and Salesforce, while the worst performing are the likes of Boeing and Chevron.
A Sign of the Times
The three changes in 2020 can best be described as modernizing the Dow.
The delistings include businesses in industries such as Aerospace & Defense and Big Pharma. But the most monumental exit? ExxonMobil, which was once the biggest company by market capitalization in America.
Their fall from grace best symbolizes the state and direction the world is headed towards.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--FAAMG Stock YTD Of 2020 Is 6 Times Better Than S&P500 (SPX) YTD

The stocks of FAAMG has grown by 39 percent since the beginning of the year compared to an additional 495 stocks just up 6 percent .
Facebook , Amazon , Apple , Microsoft , and Google ( Alphabet ) , collectively called as FAAMG , are five leading corporations by market size in the S & P 500 .
The index is re-equilibrated annually , adjusting the weights of firms and manufacturing .
FAAMG ’ s inventories reflect approximately 25 % of the index ’ s market cap at the time of publication .
Since at least the 1980s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 .
The FAAMG ’ s stocks do not only have a large weight in the index , but also surpass the larger index since the beginning of the year .
The implications of the pandemic have forced some investors to opt for large companies which generate revenue from online companies that have gained from the FAAMG ‘ s stocks .
The FAAMG ’ stocks rose by 39 percent , compared with another 495 stocks rose only by 6 percent from the beginning of the year up to October 2020 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ important detail needs to be noted .
The S & P 500 uses a weighted methodology to determine market capitalization in free float .
Bloomberg reported that after mid-February , only about a third of S & P 500 companies were in the green zone .
During the pandemic , the largest components of the index were quite strong and were the driving force behind the reversal of the S & P 500 index .

by Saad Ullah
The stocks of FAAMG has grown by 39 percent since the beginning of the year compared to an additional 495 stocks just up 6 percent.
Image source: Twitter @tracyalloway
FAAMG’s Performance
Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google (Alphabet), collectively called as FAAMG, are five leading corporations by market size in the S&P 500. The index is re-equilibrated annually, adjusting the weights of firms and manufacturing. FAAMG’s inventories reflect approximately 25% of the index’s market cap at the time of publication. Since at least the 1980s, five businesses did not get the S&P 500. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The FAAMG’s stocks do not only have a large weight in the index, but also surpass the larger index since the beginning of the year. The implications of the pandemic have forced some investors to opt for large companies which generate revenue from online companies that have gained from the FAAMG ‘s stocks.
The FAAMG’ stocks rose by 39 percent, compared with another 495 stocks rose only by 6 percent from the beginning of the year up to October 2020.
Image source: Twitter @tracyalloway
Don’t Be so Optimistic
While this momentum is optimistic, an important detail needs to be noted. The S&P 500 uses a weighted methodology to determine market capitalization in free float.
Bloomberg reported that after mid-February, only about a third of S&P 500 companies were in the green zone. During the pandemic, the largest components of the index were quite strong and were the driving force behind the reversal of the S&P 500 index.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Does Treasury Needs An Accountant? Or IT Consultant? Treasury Direct Claims $368.1 Billion In Fiscal

Does Treasury Needs An Accountant? Or IT Consultant? Treasury Direct Claims $368.1 Billion In Fiscal Year Interest Expense, It Is Actually $517.6 Billion

According to the US Treasury Department ’ s Treasury Direct , the total interest expense for the fiscal year 2020 @ @ @ @ @ when I add up the numbers , I get $ 517,640,843,766.42 .
Missed it by @ @ @

by confoundedinterest17
According to the US Treasury Department’s Treasury Direct, the total interest expense for the fiscal year 2020 is $368,102,426,277.71.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Yet when I add up the numbers, I get $517,640,843,766.42.
Missed it by that much.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--RAND PAUL: If you’re more worried about Trump unmasking on a balcony with no one close to him than y

RAND PAUL: If you’re more worried about Trump unmasking on a balcony with no one close to him than you were by the Obama/Biden administration unmasking (aka illegally spying on) their political opponents, my diagnosis is you have TDS, & my prescription is to put down your phone.

If you ’ re more worried about @ realDonaldTrump unmasking on a balcony with no one close to him than @ @ @ @ @ administration unmasking ( aka illegally spying on ) their political opponents , my diagnosis is @ @ @ @ @ my prescription is to put down your phone .

If you’re more worried about @realDonaldTrump unmasking on a balcony with no one close to him than you were by the Obama/Biden administration unmasking (aka illegally spying on) their political opponents, my diagnosis is you have TDS, & my prescription is to put down your phone.
— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) October 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Chinese conglomerate Tencent may be banned from taking payments in USA

One option is putting Ant Group and Tencent on the Treasury Department ’ s specially designated national list , a @ @ @ @ @ all but radioactive for any U.S. company — and possibly overseas firms — to do @ @ @ @

U.S. EXPLORES RESTRICTING ANT GROUP, TENCENT PAYMENT SYSTEMS — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) October 7, 2020
U.S. EXPLORES RESTRICTING ANT GROUP, TENCENT PAYMENT SYSTEMS
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-07/u-s-explores-restrictions-on-ant-group-tencent-payment-systems
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
One option is putting Ant Group and Tencent on the Treasury Department’s specially designated national list, a move that would make them all but radioactive for any U.S. company — and possibly overseas firms — to do business with them.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Riots have begun in Milwaukee

Riots have begun in Milwaukee

On the ground in Wauwatosa for @townhallcom and some in the BLM crowd are smashing storefront windows. pic.twitter.com/rYwNrlmtMq — Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) October 8, 2020
Some rioters in Wauwatosa, WI are now smashing windows of homes. People in the crowd tried to stop them from targeting homes. pic.twitter.com/vIiDQDPzTr — Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) October 8, 2020
The BLM crowd marched towards a line of police officers in Wauwatosa and began to throw projectiles. Police fired tear gas and pepper balls in response. pic.twitter.com/VsHD0flYfX — Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) October 8, 2020
As the BLM crowd was marching through the neighborhoods of Wauwatosa, one man came out to tell people to get off of his property, telling them there are people who most likely support BLM. One guy drove on his yard with a motorcycle. pic.twitter.com/yxOyZXqMOQ — Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) October 8, 2020
h/t STAX
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Lying Joe: As president, I will: – Implement nationwide mask mandates – AKA martial law

Joe , even you admit it ’ s unconstitutional .
He thinks Americans are stupid , and he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ ’ s the deal , the federal government — there ’ s a constitutional issue @ @ @ @ @ such a mandate .
I don ’ t think constitutionally they could , so I @ @ @ @ @ mandate.
” In other words , Biden now wants to declare martial law and use @ @ @ @ @ ass if you don ’ t wear a mask .
Joe Biden has called for @ @ @ @ @ despite admitting it is unconstitutional ) & constantly criticizes the President about masks .
But @ @ @ @ @ bring himself to follow the rules he demands everyone else abide by .
He is @ @ @ @

Joe, even you admit it’s unconstitutional. He thinks Americans are stupid, and he’s right.
As president, I will: – Implement nationwide mask mandates
– Ensure access to regular, reliable, and free testing
– Accelerate the development of treatments and vaccines I won’t waste any time getting this virus under control. — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 7, 2020
Before:
Biden walks back national mask mandate over ‘constitutional issue’
“But here’s the deal, the federal government — there’s a constitutional issue whether federal government could issue such a mandate. I don’t think constitutionally they could, so I wouldn’t issue a mandate.”
nypost.com/2020/09/08/joe-biden-walks-back-national-mask-mandate/
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In other words, Biden now wants to declare martial law and use the military to beat your ass if you don’t wear a mask.
Joe Biden has called for a national mask mandate (despite admitting it is unconstitutional) & constantly criticizes the President about masks.
But Biden can’t even bring himself to follow the rules he demands everyone else abide by. He is a massive hypocrite.
9/30: Biden walks through in a group of people… with no mask on. pic.twitter.com/1KtHjx1CVU — Abigail Marone 🇺🇸 (@abigailmarone) October 6, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--CNN reporter fighting off raccoons!

CNN reporter fighting off raccoons!

This is what a consummate professional @ joejohnscnn is .
Seconds before his @ NewDay live shot , he fends @ @ @ @ @ Just another day in the nutty news cycle .
# behindthescenes # whitehouseraccoon # wildlife @

This is what a consummate professional @joejohnscnn is. Seconds before his @NewDay live shot, he fends off a raccoon attack! Just another day in the nutty news cycle. #behindthescenes #whitehouseraccoon #wildlife pic.twitter.com/p13w3QICiD
— Alisyn Camerota (@AlisynCamerota) October 7, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Don’t Trust The Fake Polls – Look At Google Searches

This is interesting to say the least because I have lost all faith in polls since 2016 .
After that @ @ @ @ @ to the countless studies that were supposed to be done on why the polls were @ @ @ @ @ never got them .
It ’ s a shame really because those studies would have @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t conduct polls to gauge public opinion , they use them to manufacture @ @ @ @ @ all a demoralization trick .
Your guy is going to lose .
You might as @ @ @ @

by Guthrey
This is interesting to say the least because I have lost all faith in polls since 2016. After that election I was looking forward to the countless studies that were supposed to be done on why the polls were so wrong, but we never got them. It’s a shame really because those studies would have been really valuable.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
They don’t conduct polls to gauge public opinion, they use them to manufacture it.
It’s all a demoralization trick. Your guy is going to lose. You might as well stay home.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--Help! Should I Get a Flu Shot This Year?

Should you get a flu vaccine this year with Covid around ?
Will having one hurt or harm your run-in @ @ @ @ @ to contract that disease ?

Should you get a flu vaccine this year with Covid around? Will having one hurt or harm your run-in with covid if you happen to contract that disease?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--They will try ANYTHING!

They will try ANYTHING!

BuzzFeed News Is Going To Court For A Quick Release Of All Russia Investigation Documents Following Trump ’ s Tweets @ @ @ @ @ had “ fully authorized ” release of the records , so BuzzFeed News went to @ @ @ @ @ access .
Now a judge wants an answer from the White House .
by Jason @ @ @ @ @ Prompted by recent tweets from the president , BuzzFeed News has asked a federal judge @ @ @ @ @ declassify and release thousands of pages of documents about investigations related to Russia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ election and allegations that President Donald Trump tried to obstruct one of the inquiries .
@ @ @ @ @ the documents be released before the presidential election , Nov. 3 .
”

BuzzFeed News Is Going To Court For A Quick Release Of All Russia Investigation Documents Following Trump’s Tweets
President Trump tweeted that he had “fully authorized” release of the records, so BuzzFeed News went to court to ask for immediate access. Now a judge wants an answer from the White House.
by Jason Leopoldby
8 Oct 2020
“Prompted by recent tweets from the president, BuzzFeed News has asked a federal judge to order the government to declassify and release thousands of pages of documents about investigations related to Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election and allegations that President Donald Trump tried to obstruct one of the inquiries.
BuzzFeed News is requesting that the documents be released before the presidential election, Nov. 3.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read more:
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/buzzfeed-news-court-russia-investigation
TL


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--Should We Celebrate Halloween?

Should We Celebrate Halloween?

Every year , Americans spend billions of dollars celebrating a holiday that is deeply rooted in ancient pagan religious practices and that is considered to be one of the most important days on the entire calendar by Satanists , Wiccans and other occultists .
Today , most people believe that our “ Halloween traditions ” are just good fun , but almost all of the most important traditions can be directly traced back to rituals that the ancient Druids would conduct during the festival of Samhain .
For the Druids , this was a time when the veil between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and many of the practices that they instituted were designed to facilitate communication with spirits on the other side .
In early America , the colonists were strictly forbidden from celebrating Halloween for religious reasons , but today only a very small percentage of the population rejects the holiday .
In fact , one recent survey found that 74 percent of young parents believe that “ Halloween is more important than ever this year ” … Even among hardcore conservatives and very committed Christians , Halloween is very widely celebrated .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the exact same people that are supposedly so concerned about the Satanists and sexual predators among the elite have no problem gleefully joining with them in celebrating one of their most important holidays .
The founder of the Church of Satan , Anton LaVey , was absolutely thrilled that so many Christians choose to celebrate Halloween .
He especially wanted children to celebrate it , and in the Satanic Bible he made it very clear how important this festival is to his master… In more recent times , Magistra Blanche Barton of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as “ this most unhallowed night ” … The Satanic Temple also considers this to be one of their most important celebrations , and they dismiss those that warn about the dangers of Halloween as being “ steeped in religious dogma ” … But most Americans never do any research into the true nature of this holiday .
Instead , most of us just focus on the fact that it can be fun to dress up and have parties and eat candy .
“ Trick or treating ” is a particularly important tradition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year most people will allow their children to freely roam the streets without even stopping to consider who their children will be getting candy from .
But the truth is that there are lots of predators out there .
In fact , there are nearly a million registered sex offenders in the United States today , and Halloween is one of their biggest nights .
According to Mike O ’ Neal , the CEO of Keeping Kids Safe , it can be an opportunity for predators to invite small children to come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you really want to take a chance that your children could have those sorts of encounters ?
Other predators are seeking to lure people for other purposes .
Just consider the following example… On Halloween night , sick and twisted individuals will be doing things that you don ’ t even want to imagine .
But most Americans just want to participate in the traditions that are “ safe ” and “ fun ” , but what they don ’ t realize is that they aren ’ t really “ safe ” at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the spiritual power involved in the ancient rituals that are conducted year after year , but that doesn ’ t mean that you are immune .
In a previous article , I listed 15 reasons why none of us should be celebrating “ the Devil ’ s holiday ” … # 1 Halloween is simply “ a modernized version of the Druidic festival of the dead ” known as Samhain .
# 2 Samhain is one of the most important holidays on the Wiccan “ wheel of the year ” .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a high holy day for witches all over the globe .
# 3 Wiccan high priestess Doreen Valiente once made the following statement about this holiday : “ Halloween is one of the four Great Sabbats of the witches that everyone has heard about .
To witches , Halloween is a serious occasion , however merrily celebrated .
It is the old Celtic Eve of Samhain.
” # 4 Former Satanist John Ramirez says that he “ sacrificed animals as part of satanic rituals ” on Halloween , and now that he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how they can curse themselves by participating in Halloween traditions .
# 5 In fact , Ramirez said that he would sleep all day long so that he “ could unleash hell ” all Halloween night long… # 6 The founder of the Church of Satan , Anton LaVey , was absolutely thrilled that so many Christian parents embrace Halloween : “ I am glad that Christian parents let their children worship the devil at least one night out of the year .
Welcome to Halloween.
” # 7 LaVey also once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own birthday , the two major Satanic holidays are Walpurgisnacht and Halloween.
” # 8 According to an article in a British news source , animals and humans were both “ thrown in to huge firepits as offerings ” on the night of Samhain… # 9 Even the History Channel admits that this was a night when animals would be sacrificed to the gods by the ancient Celts… # 10 According to Smithsonian.com , many pet shelters across America will not adopt out black cats during this time of the year because this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take place ” … # 11 Today most people consider “ Halloween costumes ” to be innocent fun , but their original purpose was “ to allow for communication with the spirit world ” … # 12 Even today , Wiccans consider dressing up on Halloween night to be “ a form of ‘ sympathetic magick ’ allowing us to experience what it could be like to be on the other side of the veil ” … # 13 Almost every year , dressing up as a witch is the number one costume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Of course demons , goblins and vampires are very popular too .
Do we really want to be engaging in a practice that actually embraces and celebrates darkness ?
# 14 Considering how much is done each year to normalize witches and witchcraft , should it be a surprise that Wicca has now become the fastest growing religion in America ?
# 15 The tradition of “ trick-or-treating ” is also an ancient pagan religious practice that was eventually “ Christianized ” … Are you starting to understand ?
When you willingly participate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open up spiritual doorways that you should definitely not be opening .
And once you start opening up the wrong sorts of spiritual doorways , your life can become a giant mess very rapidly .

by Michael Snyder
Every year, Americans spend billions of dollars celebrating a holiday that is deeply rooted in ancient pagan religious practices and that is considered to be one of the most important days on the entire calendar by Satanists, Wiccans and other occultists. Today, most people believe that our “Halloween traditions” are just good fun, but almost all of the most important traditions can be directly traced back to rituals that the ancient Druids would conduct during the festival of Samhain. For the Druids, this was a time when the veil between the living and the dead was the thinnest, and many of the practices that they instituted were designed to facilitate communication with spirits on the other side. In early America, the colonists were strictly forbidden from celebrating Halloween for religious reasons, but today only a very small percentage of the population rejects the holiday. In fact, one recent survey found that 74 percent of young parents believe that “Halloween is more important than ever this year”…
Americans are looking forward to Halloween to add some normalcy and joy to what has been a very serious and uncertain time. In a poll conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of NCA, 74% of millennial moms and young parents say that Halloween is more important than ever this year.
Even among hardcore conservatives and very committed Christians, Halloween is very widely celebrated.
And that is quite ironic, because many of the exact same people that are supposedly so concerned about the Satanists and sexual predators among the elite have no problem gleefully joining with them in celebrating one of their most important holidays.
The founder of the Church of Satan, Anton LaVey, was absolutely thrilled that so many Christians choose to celebrate Halloween. He especially wanted children to celebrate it, and in the Satanic Bible he made it very clear how important this festival is to his master…
“After one’s own birthday, the two major Satanic holidays are Walpurgisnacht (May 1st) and Halloween.”
In more recent times, Magistra Blanche Barton of the Church of Satan referred to Halloween as “this most unhallowed night”…
Yes, the demons have indeed provided a crystalline vision of the future to me this most unhallowed night. I see the firelight flickering wildly in my son’s eyes as he dances happily in his pirate costume. I see the young monsters and witches and vampires loosed in our streets, never to be shackled again. I see reason and science and fantasy blasting away the dull lethargthy of defunct philosophies. I see Satanists all over the world meeting in small groups this night and Hallowe’ens 500 years hence, to raise a glass to the Infernal Hosts, the revolutionaries, myth-makers, infidels and reprobates, and to Anton LaVey—Long Live our High Priest!
The Satanic Temple also considers this to be one of their most important celebrations, and they dismiss those that warn about the dangers of Halloween as being “steeped in religious dogma”…
Halloween is consistently described as evil, demonic, and satanic by those steeped in religious dogma. Costumes, candy, and facing fears are to be embraced.
But most Americans never do any research into the true nature of this holiday.
Instead, most of us just focus on the fact that it can be fun to dress up and have parties and eat candy.
“Trick or treating” is a particularly important tradition in modern times, and once again this year most people will allow their children to freely roam the streets without even stopping to consider who their children will be getting candy from.
But the truth is that there are lots of predators out there. In fact, there are nearly a million registered sex offenders in the United States today, and Halloween is one of their biggest nights.
According to Mike O’Neal, the CEO of Keeping Kids Safe, it can be an opportunity for predators to invite small children to come back to their homes another time…
“If you go to a predator’s house and he has big candy bars and he says, ‘Listen, come back tomorrow and if I have some left over, I’ll give it to you,’ well of course the child’s gonna go, ‘You’re gonna have candy left over and you’re gonna give it to me? Sure I’ll come back tomorrow,’” said O’Neal.
Do you really want to take a chance that your children could have those sorts of encounters?
Other predators are seeking to lure people for other purposes. Just consider the following example…
The cult couple accused of killing and dismembering a Nebraska woman they met on Tinder are said to have convinced other dates they controlled a coven of witches who gained their powers by killing people. Aubrey Trail, 54, was in July last year convicted of first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder over the November 2017 slaying of Sydney Loofe. His girlfriend Bailey Boswell, 26, is now also on trial for the murder.
On Halloween night, sick and twisted individuals will be doing things that you don’t even want to imagine.
But most Americans just want to participate in the traditions that are “safe” and “fun”, but what they don’t realize is that they aren’t really “safe” at all.
You may not be aware of the spiritual power involved in the ancient rituals that are conducted year after year, but that doesn’t mean that you are immune.
In a previous article, I listed 15 reasons why none of us should be celebrating “the Devil’s holiday”…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
#1 Halloween is simply “a modernized version of the Druidic festival of the dead” known as Samhain.
#2 Samhain is one of the most important holidays on the Wiccan “wheel of the year”. In other words, it is considered to be a high holy day for witches all over the globe.
#3 Wiccan high priestess Doreen Valiente once made the following statement about this holiday: “Halloween is one of the four Great Sabbats of the witches that everyone has heard about. To witches, Halloween is a serious occasion, however merrily celebrated. It is the old Celtic Eve of Samhain.”
#4 Former Satanist John Ramirez says that he “sacrificed animals as part of satanic rituals” on Halloween, and now that he is a Christian pastor he warns people about how they can curse themselves by participating in Halloween traditions.
#5 In fact, Ramirez said that he would sleep all day long so that he “could unleash hell” all Halloween night long…
I remember the days leading up to Halloween, we devil worshippers had our instructions from the demon world about what had to be done, and we knew it was going to be a long night. I would sleep all day to be rested up and ready for midnight so I could unleash hell on the world into the wee hours of the morning.
#6 The founder of the Church of Satan, Anton LaVey, was absolutely thrilled that so many Christian parents embrace Halloween: “I am glad that Christian parents let their children worship the devil at least one night out of the year. Welcome to Halloween.”
#7 LaVey also once said that “after one’s own birthday, the two major Satanic holidays are Walpurgisnacht and Halloween.”
#8 According to an article in a British news source, animals and humans were both “thrown in to huge firepits as offerings” on the night of Samhain…
But the reality of Halloween through the eyes of the Celts and Druids is scarier than any horror film. According to old documents, in its most primitive guise, Samhain would have featured many sacrifices to the Celtic gods of death, with both animals and humans thrown in to huge firepits as offerings. People claimed the ancient Druids ate their first born children on Samhain, or collected the blood of their sacrificial humans in cauldrons and drank it.
#9 Even the History Channel admits that this was a night when animals would be sacrificed to the gods by the ancient Celts…
In addition to causing trouble and damaging crops, Celts thought that the presence of the otherworldly spirits made it easier for the Druids, or Celtic priests, to make predictions about the future. For a people entirely dependent on the volatile natural world, these prophecies were an important source of comfort and direction during the long, dark winter. To commemorate the event, Druids built huge sacred bonfires, where the people gathered to burn crops and animals as sacrifices to the Celtic deities. During the celebration, the Celts wore costumes, typically consisting of animal heads and skins, and attempted to tell each other’s fortunes.
#10 According to Smithsonian.com, many pet shelters across America will not adopt out black cats during this time of the year because this “is a time when blood rituals take place”…
It’s unclear exactly where the superstitions around black cats and bad luck came from, but people tend to eye ancient folkloric traditions like the Druids or associations with witchcraft that arose during the Middle Ages. But being the bearers of bad luck isn’t the only rumor that follows dark-furred kitties into the present. For decades, many animal shelters have refused to adopt out black cats on or right before Halloween out of fear they will be tortured or sacrificed, Kate Knibbs writes for Gizmodo. “This is a time when blood rituals take place,” Hedy Litke, director of animal placement at the ASPCA, told K.C. Baker for the New York Daily News in 1999. “Black cats are often sacrificed.”
#11 Today most people consider “Halloween costumes” to be innocent fun, but their original purpose was “to allow for communication with the spirit world”…
Halloween masks and costumes were used to hide one’s attendance at pagan festivals or—as in traditional shamanism (mediated by a witch doctor or pagan priest) and other forms of animism—to change the personality of the wearer to allow for communication with the spirit world. Here, costumes could be worn to ward off evil spirits. On the other hand, the costume wearer might use a mask to try to attract and absorb the power of the animal represented by the mask and costume worn. According to this scenario, Halloween costumes may have originated with the Celtic Druid ceremonial participants, who wore animal heads and skins to acquire the strength of a particular animal.
#12 Even today, Wiccans consider dressing up on Halloween night to be “a form of ‘sympathetic magick’ allowing us to experience what it could be like to be on the other side of the veil”…
On Samhain night the Faerie folk are believed to be very active and delight in playing tricks on humans. If you’re near a faerie mound, be very careful not to be drawn inside, else you may disappear for a few hundred years. The Fey enjoy gifts of food and drink and pretty baubles, so be sure to leave treats for the Faeries so you won’t be tricked! In order to fool the Nature Spirits, our pagan ancestors would dress up in costumes if they had to travel about on Samhain night. They would dress all in white, like ghosts, make disguises of straw, or dress as the opposite gender. I suppose that the Faeries were so busy laughing at the costumes they forgot to play any tricks! Another school of thought regarding dressing up at Samhain has a much more spiritual basis. Dressing as a ghost or skeleton could be seen as a form of “sympathetic magick” allowing us to experience what it could be like to be on the other side of the veil.
#13 Almost every year, dressing up as a witch is the number one costume for adults in the United States. Of course demons, goblins and vampires are very popular too. Do we really want to be engaging in a practice that actually embraces and celebrates darkness?
#14 Considering how much is done each year to normalize witches and witchcraft, should it be a surprise that Wicca has now become the fastest growing religion in America?
#15 The tradition of “trick-or-treating” is also an ancient pagan religious practice that was eventually “Christianized”…
The idea of trick-or-treating is further related to the ghosts of the dead in pagan, and even Catholic, history. For example, among the ancient Druids, “The ghosts that were thought to throng about the houses of the living were greeted with a banquet-laden table. At the end of the feast, masked and costumed villagers representing the souls of the dead paraded to the outskirts of town leading the ghosts away.” As already noted, Halloween was thought to be a night when mischievous and evil spirits roamed freely. As in modern poltergeist lore, mischievous spirits could play tricks on the living—so it was advantageous to “hide” from them by wearing costumes. Masks and costumes were worn to either scare away the ghosts or to keep from being recognized by them.
Are you starting to understand?
When you willingly participate in ancient occult traditions, you potentially open up spiritual doorways that you should definitely not be opening.
And once you start opening up the wrong sorts of spiritual doorways, your life can become a giant mess very rapidly.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--The stage has been set for a historic national meltdown…

Everything that has happened in 2020 so far has set us up for a grand finale that none of us will ever forget .
This year we have already witnessed the worst public health crisis in about a hundred years , widespread lockdowns all over the nation , a crippling economic collapse and civil unrest in major cities across America .
To say that the American people are in a bad mood would be a major understatement .
Now we are less than a month away from a bitterly contested presidential election , and as you will see below , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans are expecting violence .
That is extremely unfortunate , but these are the times in which we live .
Our country is literally falling apart all around us , and nobody seems to have a way to stop it from happening .
And the worse economic conditions become , the worse the mood of the nation is going to get .
On Thursday , we learned that another 840,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week… If someone had told me late last year that 63 million Americans would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , I would have thought that person was crazy .
Prior to 2020 , the worst number for a single week in all of U.S. history was 695,000 , and now we have been way above that figure every single week of this pandemic .
Of course the layoffs just keep rolling along .
Right now , it is being reported that WarnerMedia expects to lay off thousands of workers in the coming weeks… Personally , I wouldn ’ t be saddened if WarnerMedia completely shut down on a permanent basis .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ programming that is corrupting the minds of millions of Americans , and our society would definitely be better off without them .
But at the same time that millions upon millions of Americans have been losing their jobs , those at the very top of the economic food chain have been getting even wealthier thanks to the Federal Reserve ’ s reckless intervention in the financial markets .
At this point , the top one percent of all Americans have more than 15 times more money than the bottom 50 percent combined… If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of resentment out there , then you haven ’ t been paying attention .
We are seeing the rise of a “ Robin Hood mentality ” among many that live in deeply impoverished areas , and when things get really crazy out there they are going to be hitting wealthy neighborhoods really hard .
Unfortunately , a lot of people believe that this upcoming election could potentially be the spark that sets off a lot more civil unrest .
Personally , I have such a bad feeling about what is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having so many people voting by mail could cause all sorts of problems .
In fact , even the mainstream media is admitting that we could see a million ballots that are sent through the mail rejected for one reason or another… Any system of voting that could potentially disenfranchise a million voters is deeply broken and should not be used .
But at this point it is too late to do anything about it .
More than 6 million people have already voted , and more votes are being sent in with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of other Americans are also deeply concerned about the integrity of this election .
Just check out the results of a recent YouGov survey… In essence , about half the country believes that this election may not be legitimate .
That is a major national crisis right there .
In addition , YouGov has also found that 56 percent of Americans believe that there will be “ an increase in violence as a result of the election ” … This definitely is not the America that I grew up in .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imagined widespread violence after a presidential election .
Another recent survey discovered that a whopping 61 percent of Americans believe that “ the U.S. could be on the verge of another Civil War ” .
We have never seen anything like this before , and at this point it is undeniable that our society is breaking down all around us .
But instead of bringing us together , the results of this upcoming election are only going to deepen our divisions no matter who wins .
Everything that our forefathers worked so hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are getting very , very close to crossing the point of no return .

by Michael Snyder
Everything that has happened in 2020 so far has set us up for a grand finale that none of us will ever forget. This year we have already witnessed the worst public health crisis in about a hundred years, widespread lockdowns all over the nation, a crippling economic collapse and civil unrest in major cities across America. To say that the American people are in a bad mood would be a major understatement. Now we are less than a month away from a bitterly contested presidential election, and as you will see below, one survey recently found that a majority of Americans are expecting violence. That is extremely unfortunate, but these are the times in which we live. Our country is literally falling apart all around us, and nobody seems to have a way to stop it from happening.
And the worse economic conditions become, the worse the mood of the nation is going to get. On Thursday, we learned that another 840,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week…
The latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Department, which cover the week ending Oct. 2, show that 840,000 workers sought aid last week, about four-times the pre-crisis level. More than 63 million Americans have sought jobless aid since the coronavirus lockdowns began in mid-March.
If someone had told me late last year that 63 million Americans would file new claims for unemployment benefits this year, I would have thought that person was crazy.
Prior to 2020, the worst number for a single week in all of U.S. history was 695,000, and now we have been way above that figure every single week of this pandemic.
Of course the layoffs just keep rolling along. Right now, it is being reported that WarnerMedia expects to lay off thousands of workers in the coming weeks…
AT&T’s WarnerMedia is preparing a restructuring that seeks to reduce costs by as much as 20% as the COVID-19 panic drains income from movie tickets, cable subscriptions and TV ads, reports The Wall Street Journal. The layoffs are expected to begin in the coming weeks and would result in thousands of layoffs across Warner Bros. studios and TV channels like HBO, TBS and TNT, the paper said.
Personally, I wouldn’t be saddened if WarnerMedia completely shut down on a permanent basis. They produce an endless barrage of garbage programming that is corrupting the minds of millions of Americans, and our society would definitely be better off without them.
But at the same time that millions upon millions of Americans have been losing their jobs, those at the very top of the economic food chain have been getting even wealthier thanks to the Federal Reserve’s reckless intervention in the financial markets.
At this point, the top one percent of all Americans have more than 15 times more money than the bottom 50 percent combined…
According to the latest Fed data, the top 1% of Americans have a combined net worth of $34.2 trillion (or 30.4% of all household wealth in the U.S.), while the bottom 50% of the population holds just $2.1 trillion combined (or 1.9% of all wealth).
If you think that there isn’t a lot of resentment out there, then you haven’t been paying attention.
We are seeing the rise of a “Robin Hood mentality” among many that live in deeply impoverished areas, and when things get really crazy out there they are going to be hitting wealthy neighborhoods really hard.
Unfortunately, a lot of people believe that this upcoming election could potentially be the spark that sets off a lot more civil unrest. Personally, I have such a bad feeling about what is going to happen, and I believe that having so many people voting by mail could cause all sorts of problems.
In fact, even the mainstream media is admitting that we could see a million ballots that are sent through the mail rejected for one reason or another…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Absentee ballot rejections this November are projected to reach historic levels, risking widespread disenfranchisement of minority voters and the credibility of election results, a USA TODAY, Columbia Journalism Investigations and PBS series FRONTLINE investigation found. At least 1.03 million absentee ballots could be tossed if half of the nation votes by mail. Discarded votes jump to 1.55 million if 75% of the country votes absentee. In the latter scenario, more than 185,000 votes could be lost in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – states considered key to capturing the White House.
Any system of voting that could potentially disenfranchise a million voters is deeply broken and should not be used.
But at this point it is too late to do anything about it. More than 6 million people have already voted, and more votes are being sent in with each passing day.
Of course millions of other Americans are also deeply concerned about the integrity of this election. Just check out the results of a recent YouGov survey…
The YouGov poll of 1,999 registered voters found that nearly half – 47% – disagree with the idea that the election “is likely to be fair and honest.” And that slightly more than half – 51% – won’t “generally agree on who is the legitimately elected president of the United States.” The online poll was conducted Oct.1-2 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.56 percentage points.
In essence, about half the country believes that this election may not be legitimate.
That is a major national crisis right there.
In addition, YouGov has also found that 56 percent of Americans believe that there will be “an increase in violence as a result of the election”…
In addition, a YouGov poll of 1,505 voters found that 56% said they expect to see “an increase in violence as a result of the election.” That question had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
This definitely is not the America that I grew up in.
In the old days, nobody would have ever imagined widespread violence after a presidential election.
Another recent survey discovered that a whopping 61 percent of Americans believe that “the U.S. could be on the verge of another Civil War”.
We have never seen anything like this before, and at this point it is undeniable that our society is breaking down all around us.
But instead of bringing us together, the results of this upcoming election are only going to deepen our divisions no matter who wins.
Everything that our forefathers worked so hard to build is at risk, and we are getting very, very close to crossing the point of no return.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--Where Will Mortgage Rates Be In Three Years? Hint: Right Where They Are Now Because The Fed Isn’t Go

Where Will Mortgage Rates Be In Three Years? Hint: Right Where They Are Now Because The Fed Isn’t Going Anywhere Until 2023

One question that is often asked if “ Where Will Mortgage Rates Be In Three Years ?
” Take a @ @ @ @ @ s 30Y mortgage survey rate ( white line ) and M2 Money Velocity ( green @ @ @ @ @ overlay The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet , pushing down the benchmark 10Y Treasury Note yield @ @ @ @ @ mortgage rates aren ’ t going up anytime soon .
Look at home price growth @ @ @ @ @ balance sheet .
As the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet in 2018 and then @ @ @ @ @ growth rate started falling … then recovered as The Fed threw more gas on the @ @ @ @ @ is also a positive relation to The Fed ’ s balance sheet .
The Fed @ @ @ @ @ at least 2023 .
So , The Fed is here to stay , distorting markets @ @ @

by confoundedinterest17
One question that is often asked if “Where Will Mortgage Rates Be In Three Years?”
Take a look at Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage survey rate (white line) and M2 Money Velocity (green line). And then overlay The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, pushing down the benchmark 10Y Treasury Note yield. It is clear that mortgage rates aren’t going up anytime soon.
Look at home price growth and The Fed’s balance sheet. As the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet in 2018 and then the Case-Shiller home price index growth rate started falling … then recovered as The Fed threw more gas on the fire.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gold? There is also a positive relation to The Fed’s balance sheet.
The Fed isn’t going until at least 2023. So, The Fed is here to stay, distorting markets and prices.
Rock and roll, hoochie koo.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--US Troops Out of Afghanistan by Christmas? Trump Tweet

We should have the small remaining number of our BRAVE Men and Women serving in Afghanistan home by Christmas !

We should have the small remaining number of our BRAVE Men and Women serving in Afghanistan home by Christmas! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2020
Christmas may be a bit optimistic but goal is by early 2021
justthenews.com/world/middle-east/president-trump-tweets-all-us-troops-should-be-withdrawn-afghanistan-christmas?utm_source=justthenews.com&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=external-news-aggregators
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t dodger007


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-09--The Energy Sectors Most Threatened By A Biden Presidency

If Joe Biden becomes the next president of the United States , the energy industry will feel the pinch , with onshore gas and offshore oil being the most vulnerable industry segments , Moody ’ s has said , as quoted by Natural Gas Intelligence .
The Democrat candidate has already made public a clean energy plan that will cost $ 1.7 trillion and that will focus on research and development of new clean energy solutions to the climate crisis .
This in itself would be negative for the oil and gas industry , if successful , as it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has also promised his voters to stop offering new offshore oil and gas leases and to ban new drilling on federal land , even though he stopped short of promising a ban on fracking .
But federal leases for oil and gas production accounted for more than a fifth of the United States ’ annual oil and gas production last year .
Oil from offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for 64 percent of oil output from federal lands , Moody ’ s senior oil and gas analyst John Thieroff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The mix of onshore producers is much broader than offshore , with major oil companies operating alongside such independent exploration and production [ E & P ] companies as EOG Resources Inc. , Concho Resources Inc. and Devon Energy Corp. , ” Thieroff said , adding “ Gas production from onshore federal leases is heavily concentrated in Wyoming , New Mexico and Colorado , which together accounted for almost 90 % of the 2019 total.
” Biden ’ s climate plan envisages incentives for consumers to switch from gasoline and diesel cars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electricity from solar and wind installations .
According to analysts , the transition will not change electricity prices in any palpable way because it will happen slowly and gradually .
“ Trump is fossil fuels first , [ and ] the objective is to resuscitate oil , ” Stewart Glickman , energy analyst at CFRA Research , told CNBC .
“ Biden is discouraging fossil fuels , in a muted way .
He ’ ll promote something different , and that something different will take time to build.″

By Charles Kennedy
If Joe Biden becomes the next president of the United States, the energy industry will feel the pinch, with onshore gas and offshore oil being the most vulnerable industry segments, Moody’s has said, as quoted by Natural Gas Intelligence.
The Democrat candidate has already made public a clean energy plan that will cost $1.7 trillion and that will focus on research and development of new clean energy solutions to the climate crisis.
This in itself would be negative for the oil and gas industry, if successful, as it will dampen demand for their products. But Biden has also promised his voters to stop offering new offshore oil and gas leases and to ban new drilling on federal land, even though he stopped short of promising a ban on fracking.
But federal leases for oil and gas production accounted for more than a fifth of the United States’ annual oil and gas production last year. Oil from offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for 64 percent of oil output from federal lands, Moody’s senior oil and gas analyst John Thieroff said in a note this week.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“The mix of onshore producers is much broader than offshore, with major oil companies operating alongside such independent exploration and production [E&P] companies as EOG Resources Inc., Concho Resources Inc. and Devon Energy Corp.,” Thieroff said, adding “Gas production from onshore federal leases is heavily concentrated in Wyoming, New Mexico and Colorado, which together accounted for almost 90% of the 2019 total.”
Biden’s climate plan envisages incentives for consumers to switch from gasoline and diesel cars to EVs and get more of their electricity from solar and wind installations. According to analysts, the transition will not change electricity prices in any palpable way because it will happen slowly and gradually.
“Trump is fossil fuels first, [and] the objective is to resuscitate oil,” Stewart Glickman, energy analyst at CFRA Research, told CNBC. “Biden is discouraging fossil fuels, in a muted way. He’ll promote something different, and that something different will take time to build.″
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com