investmentwatchblog--2020-06-14--Wow, That Was Fast: Debt Out the Wazoo

Wow, That Was Fast: Debt Out the Wazoo

US National Debt Spiked by $ 1 trillion in 5 weeks to $ 26 trillion .
Fed monetized 65 % .
Business debts spike to high heaven .
Trillions are now whooshing by at a breath-taking pace .
The US gross national debt – the total of all Treasury securities outstanding – jumped by $ 1 trillion over the past , from May 4 through June 8 , and by $ 2.5 trillion for the 11 weeks since March 23 .
The total US national debt outstanding has reached $ 26 trillion , according to the Treasury Department .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on my site since 2011 .
In recent years , I innocently added a green upward arrow with “ Debt out the wazoo ” to my gross-national-debt charts , unaware that this tongue-in-cheek label would turn into a factual , data-based technical term : And think about this : The huge mountain of debt that took decades to grow to this gargantuan size has exploded by another 10 % in just 11 weeks .
The curious flat spots in the chart are the periods when the national debt bounced into the Congress-imposed debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government borrowed from federal pension funds and other internal sources – the “ extraordinary measures ” – to make ends meet , thereby continuing to borrow , and when the political charade was resolved and the debt ceiling was raised , bam , the debt jumped by hundreds of billions in weeks .
Now the debt jumps by the trillions in weeks on a routine basis .
On February 19 , when the debt had soared by $ 1.3 trillion in 12 months to $ 23.3 trillion , I mused : “ But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we don ’ t even want to know what this will look like during the next economic downturn.
” Turns out , we didn ’ t get a regular economic downturn .
We got the most epic and sudden economic downturn ever .
And now we ’ re beginning to know what this looks like in terms of the US debt .
From early March through its balance sheet released yesterday , the Fed added $ 1.61 trillion in Treasury securities to its assets as part of its Everything Bubble bailout program .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt soared by an additional $ 2.5 trillion .
The Fed has thereby indirectly – as is the rule in the US – monetized 65 % of this additional debt .
But as you can see in the chart below , the Fed ’ s monetization of the US debt has slowed to a trickle in recent weeks , after the original shock-and-awe spree in March and April .
In the week through Wednesday , the Fed has added merely $ 8.8 billion in Treasury securities , the small weekly total all year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Business debts are skyrocketing .
Business debts already skyrocketed in the first quarter , according to data released yesterday by the Fed ’ s Board of Governors .
In Q1 , total “ nonfinancial ” business debts , which include corporations and other businesses but not financial intermediaries such as banks ( that borrow to lend , and including them would result in double-counting a lot of debts ) , jumped to $ 16.86 trillion .
This was a 5 % increase from the prior quarter , the largest such quarter-to-quarter increase in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : And for business debts , the second quarter is going to be a doozie .
Businesses have sold enormous piles of investment-grade bonds and junk bonds in April and May .
And this pace appears to be continuing in June .
The Fed ’ s Board of Governors will report total business debts for Q2 in three months .
But we already know from the weekly banking report by the Fed Board of Governors that “ commercial and industrial loans , ” which are part of the nonfinancial business debts , have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three months , by far the most ever , from $ 2.36 trillion at the end of February – and the end of the Good Times – to $ 3.05 trillion at the end of May ( on a weekly basis , they have started to tick down since their weekly peak of $ 3.09 trillion in mid-May ) : Households gorged less on debt .
Municipal debt remains flat .
But now everything has changed .
Household debts – mortgages , HELOCs , credit cards , auto loans , student loans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16.3 trillion in Q1 , another record , and up 12.4 % from the peak at the early innings of the Financial Crisis in Q3 2008 .
Given population growth over the 12 years and inflation , in aggregate households were less vulnerable – until 30 million people lost their jobs over the past two months .
And with households , it ’ s not the “ aggregate ” debt that matters , but the debts of the most vulnerable 20 % or 30 % , which is where households are loaded up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ auto loans and subprime credit card loans – and the mess has started to blow up even before the pandemic and before the 30 million job losses .
Debt by states and municipal governments , at $ 3.1 trillion in Q1 , has remained relatively flat since the Financial Crisis , after having peaked at $ 3.2 trillion in Q4 2010 .
But states and cities now have a revenue problem of a stunning suddenness and depth .
In Q1 , total nonfinancial debt , including government debt at all levels , nonfinancial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to $ 55.9 trillion , according to the Fed Board of Governors .
And Q2 will likely add $ 3+ trillion in Treasury debt , plus the large amounts of business debts issued in April , May and June .
All combined , total nonfinancial debts will approach $ 60 trillion by the end of June – having doubled in the 14 years since 2006 .
Debt out the wazoo .

US National Debt Spiked by $1 trillion in 5 weeks to $26 trillion. Fed monetized 65%. Business debts spike to high heaven.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Trillions are now whooshing by at a breath-taking pace. The US gross national debt – the total of all Treasury securities outstanding – jumped by $1 trillion over the past five weeks
, from May 4 through June 8, and by $2.5 trillion for the 11 weeks since March 23.
The total US national debt outstanding has reached $26 trillion, according to the Treasury Department. I’ve been fretting about this debt on my site since 2011. In recent years, I innocently added a green upward arrow with “Debt out the wazoo” to my gross-national-debt charts, unaware that this tongue-in-cheek label would turn into a factual, data-based technical term:
And think about this: The huge mountain of debt that took decades to grow to this gargantuan size has exploded by another 10% in just 11 weeks.
The curious flat spots in the chart are the periods when the national debt bounced into the Congress-imposed debt ceiling. During these periods, the government borrowed from federal pension funds and other internal sources – the “extraordinary measures” – to make ends meet, thereby continuing to borrow, and when the political charade was resolved and the debt ceiling was raised, bam, the debt jumped by hundreds of billions in weeks. Now the debt jumps by the trillions in weeks on a routine basis.
On February 19, when the debt had soared by $1.3 trillion in 12 months to $23.3 trillion, I mused: “But these are the good times. And we don’t even want to know what this will look like during the next economic downturn.”
Turns out, we didn’t get a regular economic downturn. We got the most epic and sudden economic downturn ever. And now we’re beginning to know what this looks like in terms of the US debt.
Fed monetizes 65% of the additional debt.
From early March through its balance sheet released yesterday, the Fed added $1.61 trillion in Treasury securities to its assets as part of its Everything Bubble bailout program. Over the same period, the US debt soared by an additional $2.5 trillion. The Fed has thereby indirectly – as is the rule in the US – monetized 65% of this additional debt.
But as you can see in the chart below, the Fed’s monetization of the US debt has slowed to a trickle in recent weeks, after the original shock-and-awe spree in March and April. In the week through Wednesday, the Fed has added merely $8.8 billion in Treasury securities, the small weekly total all year:
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And then there is this: Business debts are skyrocketing.
Business debts already skyrocketed in the first quarter, according to data released yesterday by the Fed’s Board of Governors. In Q1, total “nonfinancial” business debts, which include corporations and other businesses but not financial intermediaries such as banks (that borrow to lend, and including them would result in double-counting a lot of debts), jumped to $16.86 trillion.
This was a 5% increase from the prior quarter, the largest such quarter-to-quarter increase in the data going back to the 1950s:
And for business debts, the second quarter is going to be a doozie. Businesses have sold enormous piles of investment-grade bonds and junk bonds in April and May. And this pace appears to be continuing in June. The Fed’s Board of Governors will report total business debts for Q2 in three months.
But we already know from the weekly banking report by the Fed Board of Governors that “commercial and industrial loans,” which are part of the nonfinancial business debts, have spiked by a stunning 29% in three months, by far the most ever, from $2.36 trillion at the end of February – and the end of the Good Times – to $3.05 trillion at the end of May (on a weekly basis, they have started to tick down since their weekly peak of $3.09 trillion in mid-May):
Households gorged less on debt. Municipal debt remains flat. But now everything has changed.
Household debts – mortgages, HELOCs, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and other loans – rose to $16.3 trillion in Q1, another record, and up 12.4% from the peak at the early innings of the Financial Crisis in Q3 2008. Given population growth over the 12 years and inflation, in aggregate households were less vulnerable – until 30 million people lost their jobs over the past two months.
And with households, it’s not the “aggregate” debt that matters, but the debts of the most vulnerable 20% or 30%, which is where households are loaded up with debts, and this includes subprime auto loans and subprime credit card loans – and the mess has started to blow up even before the pandemic and before the 30 million job losses.
Debt by states and municipal governments, at $3.1 trillion in Q1, has remained relatively flat since the Financial Crisis, after having peaked at $3.2 trillion in Q4 2010. But states and cities now have a revenue problem of a stunning suddenness and depth.
$60 trillion in nonfinancial debts…
In Q1, total nonfinancial debt, including government debt at all levels, nonfinancial business debts, and household debts jumped to $55.9 trillion, according to the Fed Board of Governors.
And Q2 will likely add $3+ trillion in Treasury debt, plus the large amounts of business debts issued in April, May and June. All combined, total nonfinancial debts will approach $60 trillion by the end of June – having doubled in the 14 years since 2006 . Debt out the wazoo.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-14--Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering

by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy , and now we ’ re hanging in mid-air , realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet .
The story we ’ re told about how our “ capitalist ” economy works is outdated .
The story goes like this : companies produce goods and services for a competitive marketplace and earn a profit from this production .
These profits are income streams for investors , who buy companies ’ stocks based on these profits .
As profits rise , so do stock valuations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumers get competitively priced goods and services , workers have jobs producing goods and services and investors earn a return on their capital .
Sadly , this is a fairy tale that no longer aligns with the reality that the U.S. economy is now a decaying billboard of “ producing goods and services ” behind which the real money is made in financial engineering , a.k.a .
legalized fraud .
Take everyone ’ s favorite stock , Apple .
The fairy tale is that Apple is in the business of making mobile phones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
According to the fairy tale , Apple ’ s rise in value from $ 400 billion to $ 1.4 trillion is based on higher operating earnings , i.e .
profits .
But if we look at Apple ’ s operating earnings ( see chart below ) , we see that they ’ ve been flat for years .
So why is Apple worth $ 1 trillion more than it was a few years ago if profits haven ’ t risen , much less tripled ?
The answer is financial engineering : Apple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of return and then uses the proceeds from this debt ( and most of its actual profits ) to buy back its own shares–an astounding $ 338 billion over the past 7 years .
But look at the return on this legalized fraud : $ 338 billion added $ 1 trillion in “ value ” which can be sold by insiders to greater fools who believe the fairy tale .
All the “ wealth ” created by financial engineering / legalized fraud is fictitious , i.e .
phantom .
It ’ s based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on profits earned from producing goods and services .
Virtually every “ success ” in America is not from producing goods and services ; it ’ s based on leveraging debt , stock buybacks , asset bubbles , marketing ( Facebook and Google ) or skimming the thin layer of cream off the global supply chain ( Walmart and Amazon ) .
Correspondent A.P .
explained how the economy actually works in the following essay .
We humans don ’ t have the brain power to figure out the cause and effect of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ create stories , shorthand rules of thumb that allow us , based on our previous observations , to predict how the world works .
When the predictive power of one of our stories fail , humans , being emotional rather than rational creatures , will bend over backward to make excuses for the story rather than telling ourselves that , in constructing the story , we ourselves were wrong .
When I quit my employer , I had certain knowledge that I was the highest producing employee of my class across five states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they didn ’ t bat an eye .
I also have certain knowledge that one year later my resignation led to a loss of $ 2 million of direct revenue from my labor that my employer would have otherwise captured .
I had been telling myself that my employer had wanted to purchase my labor .
What it turns out they wanted to purchase was my credibility .
Something they could get from anyone with an MD .
They wanted to use the foot traffic generated by the patients coming to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They wanted to use my relationships to extract patient information for re-sale .
They wanted to use my name on the door to create the impression they were a healthcare company– tax exempt benefits and all .
The $ 2 million drop in their revenue meant nothing to them .
When I left , they simply shared my responsibilities among the remaining doctors , who in aggregate possessed enough credibility that the appreciation of commercial real estate , the sale of patient information , and the benefits of tax exemption continued unabated—dwarfing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then I realized that my former employer wasn ’ t special .
Today , virtually any public concern uses their ‘ products ’ as a similar ‘ front.
’ They ’ re not in the business of selling shoes , or oil changes , or makeup any more than banks are in the business of serving depositors or making loans .
They ’ re all in the business of financial engineering .
And because this business model requires access to capital markets , their ‘ products ’ are only there to create an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so they can be plausibly sell their debt .
That ’ s why they don ’ t care if their stores get looted , or if they de-platform their most profitable users , the merchandise and revenue are nothing to them .
Being able to sell debt instruments and distribute the proceeds to the organization ’ s ‘ keys to power ’ ( see The Rules for Rulers 18 min . )
is the only thing that matters ( and maybe some government subsidies on top ) .
These companies will borrow and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is nothing left to leverage and the last holders of debt are left holding the bag—usually to be bailed out by Federal Reserve-printed dollars .
Then the leadership will move on to the next business , rewarded not for being shrewd businessmen but for being excellent wealth extractors and financial engineers .
When money is created without the creation of value , the financial reward of building a business by selling something for a profit is nothing compared to the rewards of using that same business to extract wealth through selling debt until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in fact , that the virtue signaling we ’ re now seeing actually improves corporate access to the tools of financialization .
That ’ s why these public companies will definitely rebuild in the affected cities , though their efforts will be carried under their marketing budgets .
Debt vehicles with the aura of social approval command a premium .
The same paradigm can be applied to government at all levels , right down to school boards .
These organizations function as a front for the skim .
Public service unions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their turn at getting hired by those whom they regulate .
.
.
All are in on it .
They all dip their beaks in the stream of confiscated money while generating no value in return .
The edifice of government simply provides just enough of a front so taxes can be collected to fund the skim without effective push back from the tax donkeys who pay .
This paradigm can be viewed as terribly cynical , but it does seem to explain everything that ’ s happening , and it hasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no value therefore value creation is not needed to gain them .
What ’ s needed is access to the system through which the printed dollars flow , while not being so blatant that folks have to tell themselves a new story—one in which real value is actually needed if one wants to acquire currency .
Current events are testing the limits people can be pushed to gaslight themselves .
Why pay taxes if the police won ’ t protect your business ?
Why purchase a product whose manufacturer hectors you before you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal failing I wasn ’ t aware of ?
Or is it because the world doesn ’ t work the way I ’ ve been telling myself it does ?
Experience teaches that while the limits of human self-delusion are immense , they ’ re still finite .
Experience also teaches that when those limits are reached , the transition to a new story can be politely described as harsh .
Cultivate what creates real value in your life .
Invest in your own social capital .
The bad chases out the good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you , A.P .
for explaining how “ business ” is just a front for the sausage-making of debt , fraud and bailouts when the fraud unravels .
Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy , and now we ’ re hanging in mid-air , realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet .
Gravity is about to take control , regardless of whatever fraud the Federal Reserve bails out and papers over .
It ’ s wrenching and painful to accept this reality ; the fairy tale was so much more Hollywood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Hollywood ending for an economy based on the phantom “ wealth ” of debt , leverage , Fed free money for financiers , stock buybacks , collateralization scams and marketing skims .
When all the skims , scams and frauds crash to Earth , it won ’ t be a cartoon .
Given these realities , Mark , Jesse and I lay out why We ’ re going “ all-in ” on bat guano futures ( 48 min . )
It ’ s all fun and games until the phantom capital evaporates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity .
This time , we might not be able to save it .
Audiobook edition now available : Will You Be Richer or Poorer ?
: Profit , Power , and AI in a Traumatized World ( $ 13 ) ( Kindle $ 6.95 , print $ 11.95 ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
Pathfinding our Destiny : Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ( $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 12 ( print @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher : The Disappearance of Drake $ 1.29 ( Kindle ) , $ 8.95 ( print ) ; read the first chapters for free ( PDF ) Money and Work Unchained $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 15 ( print ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
If you found value in this content , please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $ 1/month patron of my work via patreon.com @

by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds
Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy, and now we’re hanging in mid-air, realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet.
The story we’re told about how our “capitalist” economy works is outdated. The story goes like this: companies produce goods and services for a competitive marketplace and earn a profit from this production. These profits are income streams for investors, who buy companies’ stocks based on these profits. As profits rise, so do stock valuations.
It’s all win-win: consumers get competitively priced goods and services, workers have jobs producing goods and services and investors earn a return on their capital.
Sadly, this is a fairy tale that no longer aligns with the reality that the U.S. economy is now a decaying billboard of “producing goods and services” behind which the real money is made in financial engineering, a.k.a. legalized fraud. Take everyone’s favorite stock, Apple. The fairy tale is that Apple is in the business of making mobile phones and providing services to this customer base.
According to the fairy tale, Apple’s rise in value from $400 billion to $1.4 trillion is based on higher operating earnings, i.e. profits. But if we look at Apple’s operating earnings (see chart below), we see that they’ve been flat for years. So why is Apple worth $1 trillion more than it was a few years ago if profits haven’t risen, much less tripled?
The answer is financial engineering: Apple sells bonds that pay a paltry rate of return and then uses the proceeds from this debt (and most of its actual profits) to buy back its own shares–an astounding $338 billion over the past 7 years.
But look at the return on this legalized fraud: $338 billion added $1 trillion in “value” which can be sold by insiders to greater fools who believe the fairy tale.
All the “wealth” created by financial engineering / legalized fraud is fictitious, i.e. phantom. It’s based on leveraging debt and trickery, not on profits earned from producing goods and services. Virtually every “success” in America is not from producing goods and services; it’s based on leveraging debt, stock buybacks, asset bubbles, marketing (Facebook and Google) or skimming the thin layer of cream off the global supply chain (Walmart and Amazon).
Correspondent A.P. explained how the economy actually works in the following essay.
We humans don’t have the brain power to figure out the cause and effect of everything we do.
So, we create stories, shorthand rules of thumb that allow us, based on our previous observations, to predict how the world works.
When the predictive power of one of our stories fail, humans, being emotional rather than rational creatures, will bend over backward to make excuses for the story rather than telling ourselves that, in constructing the story, we ourselves were wrong.
Consistency bias is blindingly powerful.
* * *
I’m a physician.
When I quit my employer, I had certain knowledge that I was the highest producing employee of my class across five states.
Yet when I gave my notice, they didn’t bat an eye.
I also have certain knowledge that one year later my resignation led to a loss of $2 million of direct revenue from my labor that my employer would have otherwise captured.
That’s when I changed my paradigm.
I had been telling myself that my employer had wanted to purchase my labor.
What it turns out they wanted to purchase was my credibility.
Something they could get from anyone with an MD.
They wanted to use the foot traffic generated by the patients coming to see me to appreciate their real estate values.
They wanted to use my relationships to extract patient information for re-sale.
They wanted to use my name on the door to create the impression they were a healthcare company– tax exempt benefits and all.
The $2 million drop in their revenue meant nothing to them.
When I left, they simply shared my responsibilities among the remaining doctors, who in aggregate possessed enough credibility that the appreciation of commercial real estate, the sale of patient information, and the benefits of tax exemption continued unabated—dwarfing any revenue my labor could generate.
Then I realized that my former employer wasn’t special.
Today, virtually any public concern uses their ‘products’ as a similar ‘front.’
They’re not in the business of selling shoes, or oil changes, or makeup any more than banks are in the business of serving depositors or making loans.
They’re all in the business of financial engineering.
And because this business model requires access to capital markets, their ‘products’ are only there to create an impression that they’re actual businesses—enough so they can be plausibly sell their debt.
That’s why they don’t care if their stores get looted, or if they de-platform their most profitable users, the merchandise and revenue are nothing to them.
Being able to sell debt instruments and distribute the proceeds to the organization’s ‘keys to power’ (see The Rules for Rulers 18 min.) is the only thing that matters (and maybe some government subsidies on top).
These companies will borrow and distribute, borrow and distribute until there is nothing left to leverage and the last holders of debt are left holding the bag—usually to be bailed out by Federal Reserve-printed dollars.
Then the leadership will move on to the next business, rewarded not for being shrewd businessmen but for being excellent wealth extractors and financial engineers.
When money is created without the creation of value, the financial reward of building a business by selling something for a profit is nothing compared to the rewards of using that same business to extract wealth through selling debt until nothing is left.
One could argue, in fact, that the virtue signaling we’re now seeing actually improves corporate access to the tools of financialization.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
That’s why these public companies will definitely rebuild in the affected cities, though their efforts will be carried under their marketing budgets.
Debt vehicles with the aura of social approval command a premium.
The same paradigm can be applied to government at all levels, right down to school boards.
These organizations function as a front for the skim.
Public service unions, individual office holders, regulators waiting for their turn at getting hired by those whom they regulate . . .
All are in on it.
They all dip their beaks in the stream of confiscated money while generating no value in return.
The edifice of government simply provides just enough of a front so taxes can be collected to fund the skim without effective push back from the tax donkeys who pay.
This paradigm can be viewed as terribly cynical, but it does seem to explain everything that’s happening, and it hasn’t failed me yet.
Dollars have no value therefore value creation is not needed to gain them.
What’s needed is access to the system through which the printed dollars flow, while not being so blatant that folks have to tell themselves a new story—one in which real value is actually needed if one wants to acquire currency.
Current events are testing the limits people can be pushed to gaslight themselves.
Why pay taxes if the police won’t protect your business?
Why purchase a product whose manufacturer hectors you before you buy?
Is it because of a personal failing I wasn’t aware of?
Or is it because the world doesn’t work the way I’ve been telling myself it does?
Experience teaches that while the limits of human self-delusion are immense, they’re still finite.
Experience also teaches that when those limits are reached, the transition to a new story can be politely described as harsh.
Plan accordingly.
Cultivate what creates real value in your life.
Invest in your own social capital.
And remember:
The bad chases out the good.
First in money . . .
Then in everything else.
Thank you, A.P. for explaining how “business” is just a front for the sausage-making of debt, fraud and bailouts when the fraud unravels. Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy, and now we’re hanging in mid-air, realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet. Gravity is about to take control, regardless of whatever fraud the Federal Reserve bails out and papers over.
It’s wrenching and painful to accept this reality; the fairy tale was so much more Hollywood. But there can’t be a Hollywood ending for an economy based on the phantom “wealth” of debt, leverage, Fed free money for financiers, stock buybacks, collateralization scams and marketing skims. When all the skims, scams and frauds crash to Earth, it won’t be a cartoon.
Given these realities, Mark, Jesse and I lay out why We’re going “all-in” on bat guano futures (48 min.)
It’s all fun and games until the phantom capital evaporates; please review The Looming Bank Collapse The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.
Recent Podcasts:
AxisOfEasy Salon #8: We’re going “all-in” on bat guano futures
A Reverse Wealth Effect? (41:52)
My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts
My recent books:
Audiobook edition now available:
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
(Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-14--Market Going Down Further; Quadruple Options Expiration Next Week with Nick Santiago (Ep #54)

For more than 20 years , Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets .
He ’ s made some incredible calls along the way and now he ’ s looking to spread the word .
There ’ s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short .
So now we ’ ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments .
Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends .
Today we discuss : 1 .
Yesterday ’ s sell off was on heavy volume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like a pullback from an overbought condition on the charts .
Either way , when you get a high volume decline from a high you must respect it .
It ’ s probably a minor pullback .
It ’ s a healthy pulback .
Central Bank intervention still going on .
4 day pullback after the high .
A little caution .
2 .
Gold is flat and silver is down 2 % .
A healthy movement .
Have to let markets play out and set up .
3 .
Vix had a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record again .
4 .
Still holding a position in MCD .
If it runs where Nick expects it ’ s going to be a very nice .
It ’ s holding its 100 day moving average .
May be stopped out of his remaining position .
5 .
Negativity is back .
A lot of call option buying for next week ’ s expiration .
Took profits on UUP and made 25 % .
New trade in Pfizer Options .
6 .
Next week is options expiration .
It is a quadruple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different asset classes will expire next week .
It is also contract rollover time for many futures contracts .
For example , the S & P 500 futures contract will move from June to September .
Next week is also a time for lots of institutional game playing .
Remember , there have been a lot of call options bought recently and the institutions will not let the retail options trader that is playing the expiring contract win on that trade and vice versa .
For more info , go to www.InTheMoneyStocks.com .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @

from Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago
For more than 20 years, Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets. He’s made some incredible calls along the way and now he’s looking to spread the word. There’s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short. So now we’ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments. Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends. Today we discuss:
1. Yesterday’s sell off was on heavy volume. At this time, it looks like a pullback from an overbought condition on the charts. Either way, when you get a high volume decline from a high you must respect it. It’s probably a minor pullback. It’s a healthy pulback. Central Bank intervention still going on. 4 day pullback after the high. A little caution.
2. Gold is flat and silver is down 2%. A healthy movement. Have to let markets play out and set up.
3. Vix had a good bounce. Not heading for a record again.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
4. Still holding a position in MCD. If it runs where Nick expects it’s going to be a very nice. It’s holding its 100 day moving average. May be stopped out of his remaining position.
5. Negativity is back. A lot of call option buying for next week’s expiration. Took profits on UUP and made 25%. New trade in Pfizer Options.
6. Next week is options expiration. It is a quadruple witching expiration. This means that 4 different asset classes will expire next week. It is also contract rollover time for many futures contracts. For example, the S&P 500 futures contract will move from June to September. Next week is also a time for lots of institutional game playing. Remember, there have been a lot of call options bought recently and the institutions will not let the retail options trader that is playing the expiring contract win on that trade and vice versa.
For more info, go to www.InTheMoneyStocks.com.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-14--The US economy is showing signs of recovery

Consumer sentiment is down sharply from its 101 point high last February , but seems to have turned around .
@ @ @ @ @ conditions increased to 87.8 from 82.3 in May , while the index of consumer expectations @ @ @ @ @ .
The median expected inflation rate during the year ahead eased to 3.0 % from @ @ @ @ @ month .
The primary reason for the sunnier outlook is the fact that many states @ @ @ @ @ Not included in the outlook is the possibility of a spike in Covid19 cases and @ @ @ @ @ recurrence of the virus .
Despite the encouraging statistics , Fed Chairman Powell last Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ news conference that growth will be very slow for the next several years ahead .
@ @ @ @ @ up in the Michigan consumer surveys , but upcoming figures may underscore his views .

Consumer sentiment is down sharply from its 101 point high last February, but seems to have turned around.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The gauge for current economic conditions increased to 87.8 from 82.3 in May, while the index of consumer expectations rose to 73.1 from 65.9. The median expected inflation rate during the year ahead eased to 3.0% from 3.2% in the previous month.
The primary reason for the sunnier outlook is the fact that many states have reopened for business. Not included in the outlook is the possibility of a spike in Covid19 cases and the potential for a strong recurrence of the virus.
Despite the encouraging statistics, Fed Chairman Powell last Wednesday emphatically cautioned during his FOMC news conference that growth will be very slow for the next several years ahead. This may not have shown up in the Michigan consumer surveys, but upcoming figures may underscore his views.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-14--JONAH GOLDBERG: The Growing CHAZm in Seattle. Anarchists take over a neighborhood and … build a bord

JONAH GOLDBERG: The Growing CHAZm in Seattle. Anarchists take over a neighborhood and … build a border wall?

I love CHAZ .
That ’ s the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone , a six-square block Wokeistan in the middle of Seattle , though I fear that they ’ ll change the name to something more euphoniously transgressive any minute now .
And , while I feel bad for the businesses and homeowners in the area who are watching their property values plummet like one of those applause-o-meter dials at a focus group for Sean Spicer ’ s new one-man song-and-dance show at Branson , CHAZ is just too perfect not to talk about .
For starters , we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are terrible .
Some wokevolk talk about borders the way you talk to a dog that craps on your new white rug : “ Bad borders !
Bad !
” But what ’ s the first thing the Chaztopians establish ?
Borders , baby .
The chief of police explained that , in a generous act of appeasement , she ordered the removal of police barricades at the request of protesters who said they wanted to march “ because we really wanted to establish trust .
Instead of marching , the protesters … @ @ @ @ @ @ @ streets we wanted to be clear are now no longer clear .
”

by Ed Driscoll
via thedispatch
I love CHAZ. That’s the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, a six-square block Wokeistan in the middle of Seattle, though I fear that they’ll change the name to something more euphoniously transgressive any minute now. And, while I feel bad for the businesses and homeowners in the area who are watching their property values plummet like one of those applause-o-meter dials at a focus group for Sean Spicer’s new one-man song-and-dance show at Branson, CHAZ is just too perfect not to talk about.
For starters, we’ve been hearing for years that borders are terrible. Some wokevolk talk about borders the way you talk to a dog that craps on your new white rug: “Bad borders! Bad!”
But what’s the first thing the Chaztopians establish? Borders, baby. The chief of police explained that, in a generous act of appeasement, she ordered the removal of police barricades at the request of protesters who said they wanted to march “because we really wanted to establish trust. Instead of marching, the protesters … established their own barricades. So the streets we wanted to be clear are now no longer clear.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Chinese Military Officer Arrested Trying to Leave U.S. With Cache of Scientific Research

Chinese military officer arrested after trying to leave US Washington Examiner | June 12 , 2020 12:52 PM A Chinese military officer is accused of trying to leave the United States with a cache of scientific research conducted at a California university .
Xin Wang , a high-ranking member of the People ’ s Liberation Army , was arrested Monday and charged with making false claims on his visa application .
Wang arrived in the U.S. in March 2019 for a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of California in San Francisco , where he researched the metabolic function of adipose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grants from the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Institutes of Health , according to court documents filed Thursday .
The arrest follows the Trump administration ’ s announcement last month that it would revoke thousands of visas held by Chinese graduate students and researchers in the U.S. who had ties to universities affiliated with the People ’ s Liberation Army .
To obtain a visa , Wang allegedly lied about his affiliation with the Chinese military , claiming his service with the People ’ s Liberation Army had ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the Justice Department , Wang was still associated with the military , which was paying him a stipend while he was in the U.S .
In May , Wang told his supervisor at the university that he was “ being recalled to China by his employer , the Fourth Military Medical University , and that he would not return to work at the UCSF lab , thus cutting his fellowship short by approximately one year , ” court documents said .
Wang also informed his supervisor that he wanted to collaborate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already duplicated some of the research conducted at the California laboratory .
Court documents said the duplication of research “ was previously unbeknownst ” to the supervisor in the U.S. “ Wang was instructed by his supervisor in China , the director of the Fourth Military Medical University lab , to observe and document the layout of the lab at UCSF in order to replicate the lab when he returned to China , ” the Justice Department said .
Wang was interviewed by Customs and Border Protection officers at Los Angeles International Airport @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to China .
He told officers he lied about his military service to increase his chances of receiving a visa and had research on his laptop and an external hard drive that he planned to share with his military colleagues in China , the Justice Department said .
Prosecutors said he had already emailed some of the research to a Chinese lab .
The government has asked a judge to keep Wang detained , saying he is a flight risk…

Chinese military officer arrested after trying to leave US
Washington Examiner | June 12, 2020 12:52 PM
A Chinese military officer is accused of trying to leave the United States with a cache of scientific research conducted at a California university.
Xin Wang, a high-ranking member of the People’s Liberation Army, was arrested Monday and charged with making false claims on his visa application.
Wang arrived in the U.S. in March 2019 for a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of California in San Francisco, where he researched the metabolic function of adipose tissue and worked on projects funded by grants from the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Institutes of Health, according to court documents filed Thursday.
The arrest follows the Trump administration’s announcement last month that it would revoke thousands of visas held by Chinese graduate students and researchers in the U.S. who had ties to universities affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army.
To obtain a visa, Wang allegedly lied about his affiliation with the Chinese military, claiming his service with the People’s Liberation Army had ended in September 2016. In reality, according to the Justice Department, Wang was still associated with the military, which was paying him a stipend while he was in the U.S.
In May, Wang told his supervisor at the university that he was “being recalled to China by his employer, the Fourth Military Medical University, and that he would not return to work at the UCSF lab, thus cutting his fellowship short by approximately one year,” court documents said.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Wang also informed his supervisor that he wanted to collaborate remotely from China and that he had already duplicated some of the research conducted at the California laboratory. Court documents said the duplication of research “was previously unbeknownst” to the supervisor in the U.S.
“Wang was instructed by his supervisor in China, the director of the Fourth Military Medical University lab, to observe and document the layout of the lab at UCSF in order to replicate the lab when he returned to China,” the Justice Department said.
Wang was interviewed by Customs and Border Protection officers at Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday as he tried to return to China. He told officers he lied about his military service to increase his chances of receiving a visa and had research on his laptop and an external hard drive that he planned to share with his military colleagues in China, the Justice Department said. Prosecutors said he had already emailed some of the research to a Chinese lab.
The government has asked a judge to keep Wang detained, saying he is a flight risk…
READ MORE:
www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/chinese-military-officer-arrested-trying-to-leave-us
h/t Fist


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Chris Vermeulen: Gold Wins in All Situations Moving Forward

Time Stamp References : 0:33 – Market sentiment and extreme leverage .
2:38 – Put/Call ratio and market trends .
5:08 – Blow off top ?
7:30 – Bullish formation for gold .
8:35 – Silver levels for a breakout .
9:55 – Expectations for oil .
11:43 – Natural gas and fear in markets .
13:10 – Covid 2.0 ?
15:20 – Everything seems to be bullish for gold .
16:00 – Another sell-off a double-dip ?
Tom welcomes Chris the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. back to the program .
Chris discusses the current market conditions and why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ metals , miners , and bonds are all showing positive patterns this week .
Sentiment is reaching new highs , and a lot of leverage is being deployed in the markets .
Chris is concerned about what could happen from a second wave of the pandemic .
Things are starting to get pretty ugly , and anything could happen .
He says , “ This is the time you buy your gold , you buy your gun , buy extra food in case riots start happening… this is a possibility that you have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ correct itself , but since crude went negative , it has attracted short-term momentum traders .
A small sideways pause follows each rally , but if a significant sell-off begins , there could be collapse as investors head for the exits .
All these things are good for gold , gold is a global safe haven , and the Fed is likely to continue stimulus , meaning gold could go much higher .
It could be fantastic for precious metals and miners if they go ballistic with printing and further devaluation of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd .
He is an internationally recognized technical analyst , trader , and is the author of the book : 7 Steps to Win With Logic .

Palisade Radio, Released on 6/12/20
Time Stamp References:
0:33 – Market sentiment and extreme leverage.
2:38 – Put/Call ratio and market trends.
5:08 – Blow off top?
7:30 – Bullish formation for gold.
8:35 – Silver levels for a breakout.
9:55 – Expectations for oil.
11:43 – Natural gas and fear in markets.
13:10 – Covid 2.0?
15:20 – Everything seems to be bullish for gold.
16:00 – Another sell-off a double-dip?
Tom welcomes Chris the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. back to the program. Chris discusses the current market conditions and why a trend change is coming as precious metals, miners, and bonds are all showing positive patterns this week. Sentiment is reaching new highs, and a lot of leverage is being deployed in the markets.
Chris is concerned about what could happen from a second wave of the pandemic. Things are starting to get pretty ugly, and anything could happen. He says, “This is the time you buy your gold, you buy your gun, buy extra food in case riots start happening… this is a possibility that you have to think about.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Oil tends to correct itself, but since crude went negative, it has attracted short-term momentum traders. A small sideways pause follows each rally, but if a significant sell-off begins, there could be collapse as investors head for the exits.
All these things are good for gold, gold is a global safe haven, and the Fed is likely to continue stimulus, meaning gold could go much higher. It could be fantastic for precious metals and miners if they go ballistic with printing and further devaluation of the dollar.
Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Gregory Mannarino: Stocks Are Going To Go UP

Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the @ @ @ @ @ that working on Wall Street was not like the movies , he moved on to @ @ @ @ @ practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant .
He also served in the United States Naval @ @ @ @ @ having attained the rank of Lieutenant .
He is an active trader of the capital @ @ @ @ @ books pertaining to finance , global economics , and equity trading .
Gregory currently hosts @ @ @ @ @ ” on YouTube .
You can find out more about what he offers at his @ @ @

TradersChoice.net, Released on 6/12/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. After realizing that working on Wall Street was not like the movies, he moved on to get a medical degree and practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant. He also served in the United States Naval Reserve Medical Service Corps, having attained the rank of Lieutenant. He is an active trader of the capital markets and has published several books pertaining to finance, global economics, and equity trading. Gregory currently hosts a business day “MarketReport” on YouTube. You can find out more about what he offers at his website Traderschoice.net.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Stockman Calls “Bulls**t” On The Latest COVID-19 Fear-Mongering About Spikes In Texas, Arizona

Dr. Fauci and the Scarf Lady are not the only Virus Patrol miscreants spreading the Covid Hysteria and thereby empowering the authorities to keep suffocating everyday economic life and personal liberty in America .
In fact , there is a whole camarilla of current and former health officials , purported disease experts , all-purpose talking heads and other Washington apparatchiks who continue to appear on mainstream media , peddling the hoary tale that coronavirus is some kind of horror flick monster : It purportedly just keeps springing from its Lockdown grave – whack-a-mole fashion – the instant officialdom relaxes its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ groomers ” of Big Pharma , and their job is to keep public fears on the boil so that the demand for high-priced treatments , cures and preventative vaccines becomes overwhelming .
And given that the Covid is now rapidly succumbing to the exhaustion of its infection cycle and the summertime sun , their exact current mission is one of bridging the gap .
That is , finding and publicizing local outbreaks and “ hot spots ” during the months just ahead so that the Virus Patrol will remain in full control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid makes its forecasted second wave rebound during next fall ’ s flu season .
After all , they desperately need these hot spots to keep the aggregate narrative alive because it is visibly collapsing by the day .
Back in early May , for instance , the NYT breathlessly carried a leaked study from the Trump Administration that projected a massive surge of new infections and a near doubling of daily death rates by early June relative to levels than extant : Needless to say , that one went down the memory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Memorial Day ) .
As of June 10 , in fact , actual daily averages for the month to date were : • 20,694 new cases per day , representing a 17 % decline , not an 8X increase ; In other words , these Washington modelers ( this one was prepared by FEMA ) couldn ’ t hit the broadside of a barn with the antiaircraft guns Chairman Kim uses to dispatch his adversaries .
So to keep the Covid-Hysteria alive , they send out the hot spot “ groomers ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ groomers is Dr. Scott Gottlieb , who was the Donald ’ s first FDA commissioner and is an alleged pedigreed “ conservative ” with a berth at the American Enterprise Institute to burnish his numerous sinecures with Big Pharma .
Gottlieb is also a CNBC regular , and yesterday , sitting astride a screen crawler which read “ Texas reports second day of record hospitalizations ” , he was busy promulgating the “ hot spot ” news about two red states , whose merely semi-craven GOP governors have belatedly attempted to get their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peddling a pimple on the elephant ’ s ass because , apparently , cable TV audiences generally and bubble vision ’ s especially , were born yesterday .
That is , they are infantile victims of recency and confirmation biases and will apparently believe anything served up in a context-free modality .
The truth is , there is nothing worrisome whatsoever going on in Arizona and Texas beyond the fact that the coronavirus started its inexorable spread in these interior states later than on the East and Left coasts , and is therefore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But as of June 8 , the count of infected cases and WITH Covid deaths in Arizona stood at 27,678 and 1,047 , respectively .
Those figures a hot spot do not make , nor do they offer any reason for not getting the state ’ s boot-heel off the economy ASAP .
Relative to the USA as a whole and the New York epicenter , Arizona ’ s figures per 100,000 population compare as follows as of June 8 : In other words , Arizona ’ s mortality rate is less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 % of that for New York .
So why is it a worrisome “ hot spot ” by the lights of Virus Patrol shills like Gottlieb ?
Indeed , the WITH-Covid mortality rate in Arizona stands at nearly rock bottom , clocking in at at just one-fifth to one-half of the mortality rates in much as European Christendom .
To wit , current rates per 100,000 include : But when context doesn ’ t matter , of course , any pimple can be depicted as a large boulder .
Thus , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allegedly soaring , suggesting that the state has jumped the gun letting its citizens out of house arrest too soon .
In fact , during the first 8 days of June , Arizona reported 7,742 new cases – a figure which is sharply higher than the 2,189 new cases reported for the last eight days of April , for example .
But that gain is entirely a function of the testing rate and then some .
Thus , during the June 1 to June 8 span , the state reported 62,825 new tests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
By contrast , during April 22 to April 30 the state reported only 15,185 new tests ( one-fourth of the June figure ) , implying an infection rate of 14.4 % .
So the state is testing a lot more , as it has been instructed to do by Washington , and such accelerated testing is generating a falling infection rate !
And that ’ s not the half of it .
By now there are more than enough antibody tests of different US populations to be reasonably certain that in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 7.38 million that there have been far more infected cases than the 27,678 cases reported through June 8 .
Generally , antibody tests show infection rates of 5-20 % in the general population , which would imply total cases – most of which remained asymptomatic or resulted in mild illnesses – of between 370,000 and 1.5 million for Arizona .
So , actually , higher reported cases daily may mean nothing at all as to the current status of the virus among the population .
More likely , it actually means that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discovered after the fact ; it ’ s stale , irrelevant old news , not an alarming new development , to say nothing of evidence of a hot spot .
Indeed , the latter is a meaningless but loaded term , honed for TV talking points , but is incapable of conveying any meaningful information about context at all .
That is , the real test is how does what ’ s happening with the coronavirus now compare with year-in-and-year-out illness , hospitalization , disease and mortality trends ?
Self-evidently , you do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens under house arrest and destroy the livelihoods of millions of workers and tens of thousands of small businesses on account of a bad run of seasonal illnesses that leaves more people than usual home in bed or even heading to the hospital for treatment .
To the contrary , this whole Lockdown Nation thing is about the modern equivalent of the Black Death – the presence of a virulent killer that can takedown the young , the old , the healthy , the sick and all categories between with equal alacrity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to support that Grim Reaper notion in the data , and most especially not the “ hot spot ” flavor of the week in Texas and Arizona .
The mortality rate from all causes for Arizona for the four months from January through the end of April ( latest available ) is shown below .
Naturally , the total mortality rate surmounts the cause of death attribution and coding issues ; and it means that unless these total death rates are significantly elevated from the norm , then nothing unusual – or at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going on .
On a per 100,000 basis , the Arizona ’ s total mortality rates for the first four months of the year have been as follows : The above does not indicate the Black Plague at loose .
The tiny elevation in 2020 relative to the previous four years is just statistical noise !
Moreover , there is no new signal coming out of this “ noise ” owing to the higher testing and infection rates being reported in recent days .
Again , the evidence for that is in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitalization rates , among others .
Between March 23 and June 1 , Arizona consistently reported new WITH-Covid hospitalization cases of between 40 and 60 per day on a statewide basis .
During June 3 through June 8 , however , the number of new hospitalizations daily has dwindled to 34 , 19 , 17 , 10 , 4 and 5 , respectively .
The last few days , in fact , have had the lowest new hospitalizations since before the Donald ’ s malpracting doctors triggered the Covid Hysteria on March 13 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep trotting out the hoary old claim that the hospitals are in danger of being overrun with new cases – per the crawler on the screen yesterday during Gottleib ’ s appearance on bubble vision .
Alas , it never happened previously in Arizona and is not remotely in danger of happening now .
Even during the peak of new hospitalizations between April 20 and May 8 , the utilization rate of hospital intensive care beds rose from 72 % to 78 % and has remained at that level ever since .
Finally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s WITH-Covid mortality data show the same dramatic skew toward the elderly , as is true with the rest of the country .
Fully 77 % of the Covid deaths in Arizona have been among the 65 and older population , which comprises just 17 % of the state ’ s overall population .
That fact alone , of course , militates strongly against the across-the-board stay-at-home and general quarantine orders in the first place .
The Arizona WITH-Covid mortality rate through June 9 breaks out as follows by age cohorts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 55 years old driving to the Scottsdale Fashion Mall would have had a greater chance of being killed in an auto accident than being felled by the Covid : With respect to Texas , it ’ s the same story .
There is no “ hot spot ” , period .
Its reported cases and deaths through June 8 are actually far lower than those for Arizona and in the sub-basement relative to the overall USA figures , to say nothing of the nursing-home based disaster-data reported for New York and New Jersey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected cases in Texas amounts to 256 per 100,000 or 68 % of the Arizona rate , 42 % of the overall USA rate and just 13 % of the rate of infected cases among the New York state population .
Likewise , the WITH-Covid mortality rate through June 8 in Texas was 6.2 per 100,000 .
That ’ s just 43 % of the Arizona rate , 19 % of the USA average and only 5 % of the New York state rate .
So Texas isn ’ t remotely a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warning about reopening too soon , and is actually a thundering rebuke of the entire Lockdown Nation narrative .
That is , Texas was late and tepid about the lockdown , and among the first to begin “ reopening ” in early May .
Yet its reported infected case rate of 256 per 100,000 is just 10 % of the real “ hot spot ” rate of 2,477 per 100,000 in the five boroughs of New York City ; and its mortality rate of 6.2 per 100,000 population is just 3 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100,000 rate .
So for crying out loud , with that kind of yawning gap and rock bottom absolute level , what is this clown , Scott Gottlieb , doing on bubble vision warning about Covid dangers in Texas ?
Answer : He ’ s grooming the sheeples in order to keep the Killer Covid narrative alive and the money and legal immunities flowing to the drug companies chasing cures and vaccines .
It goes without saying , course , that the alleged surge in new cases reported in Texas during recent days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about Arizona .
Yes , new cases reported during June 1 to June 8 averaged 1,416 per day or about 61 % higher than the rate of 877 per day reported for April 22 to April 30 .
Except , the number of new tests also rose by about 60 % from 113,500 to 168,500 , leaving the infected rate virtually unchanged at a very low 6.7 % .
Again , if you want to talk “ hot spots ” , try New York City .
The the infected rate per test has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bronx , for example .
So the question recurs .
Why are people like Scott Gottlieb out pimping the Killer Covid story in the face overwhelming evidence that it it nothing of the kind .
Perhaps , it might be noted that Gottlieb went straight from medical school to various jobs at the FDA before becoming commissioner in 2017 , and then heading out the revolving door to Pfizer ’ s Board of Directors in May 2019 .
And , yes , here ’ s the list of the top five firms being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race for a Covid vaccine , which may or may not happen , but whether safe or not will be of no never-mind to Big Pharma .
After all , Washington has already indemnified them against lawsuits ; pretty much guaranteed that they can name their charge per dose ; and will be doing all it can to make getting a tap on the arm from one or more of the Big Pharma competitors a mandatory duty of citizenship .
Call it what you will , but don ’ t call it honest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still another blow to the idea of limited government and personal liberty .
The five companies are Moderna , a Massachusetts-based biotechnology firm , which Dr. Fauci said he expected would enter into the final phase of clinical trials next month ; the combination of Oxford University and AstraZeneca , on a similar schedule ; and three large pharmaceutical companies : Johnson & Johnson , Merck and Pfizer .
Each is taking a somewhat different approach .
Read more of Stockman ’ s analysis here .

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,
Dr. Fauci and the Scarf Lady are not the only Virus Patrol miscreants spreading the Covid Hysteria and thereby empowering the authorities to keep suffocating everyday economic life and personal liberty in America.
In fact, there is a whole camarilla of current and former health officials, purported disease experts, all-purpose talking heads and other Washington apparatchiks who continue to appear on mainstream media, peddling the hoary tale that coronavirus is some kind of horror flick monster: It purportedly just keeps springing from its Lockdown grave – whack-a-mole fashion – the instant officialdom relaxes its quarantine edicts.
Call these people the “groomers” of Big Pharma, and their job is to keep public fears on the boil so that the demand for high-priced treatments, cures and preventative vaccines becomes overwhelming. And given that the Covid is now rapidly succumbing to the exhaustion of its infection cycle and the summertime sun, their exact current mission is one of bridging the gap.
That is, finding and publicizing local outbreaks and “hot spots” during the months just ahead so that the Virus Patrol will remain in full control of policy and the narrative until the Covid makes its forecasted second wave rebound during next fall’s flu season.
After all, they desperately need these hot spots to keep the aggregate narrative alive because it is visibly collapsing by the day.
Back in early May, for instance, the NYT breathlessly carried a leaked study from the Trump Administration that projected a massive surge of new infections and a near doubling of daily death rates by early June relative to levels than extant:
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750. The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently. The numbers underscore a sobering reality: The United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks to try slowing the spread of the virus, but reopening the economy will make matters worse.
Needless to say, that one went down the memory hole ages ago (i.e. around Memorial Day). As of June 10, in fact, actual daily averages for the month to date were:
827 deaths per day, representing a 53% decline , not a 70% increase;
, not a 70% increase; 20,694 new cases per day, representing a 17% decline, not an 8X increase;
In other words, these Washington modelers (this one was prepared by FEMA) couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn with the antiaircraft guns Chairman Kim uses to dispatch his adversaries. So to keep the Covid-Hysteria alive, they send out the hot spot “groomers”.
On of the most mendacious of these groomers is Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who was the Donald’s first FDA commissioner and is an alleged pedigreed “conservative” with a berth at the American Enterprise Institute to burnish his numerous sinecures with Big Pharma.
Gottlieb is also a CNBC regular, and yesterday, sitting astride a screen crawler which read “Texas reports second day of record hospitalizations”, he was busy promulgating the “hot spot” news about two red states, whose merely semi-craven GOP governors have belatedly attempted to get their economies back in business:
When you look at hotspot regions like Arizona and Texas, they have to be concerned, particularly areas around Houston right now. They could lose control of this very quickly,” says @ScottGottliebMD on balancing re-opening with public health.
We call bullshit!
Gottlieb was peddling a pimple on the elephant’s ass because, apparently, cable TV audiences generally and bubble vision’s especially, were born yesterday. That is, they are infantile victims of recency and confirmation biases and will apparently believe anything served up in a context-free modality.
The truth is, there is nothing worrisome whatsoever going on in Arizona and Texas beyond the fact that the coronavirus started its inexorable spread in these interior states later than on the East and Left coasts, and is therefore cresting slightly later, as well.
But as of June 8, the count of infected cases and WITH Covid deaths in Arizona stood at 27,678 and 1,047, respectively. Those figures a hot spot do not make, nor do they offer any reason for not getting the state’s boot-heel off the economy ASAP.
Relative to the USA as a whole and the New York epicenter, Arizona’s figures per 100,000 population compare as follows as of June 8:
Infected cases Arizona : 375;
: 375; Infected cases USA : 596;
: 596; Infected cases New York : 1,963
: 1,963 WITH Covid deaths Arizona : 14.2;
: 14.2; WITH-Covid deaths USA : 32.3;
: 32.3; WITH-Covid deaths New York: 126.0;
In other words, Arizona’s mortality rate is less than half of the US average and only 11% of that for New York. So why is it a worrisome “hot spot” by the lights of Virus Patrol shills like Gottlieb?
Indeed, the WITH-Covid mortality rate in Arizona stands at nearly rock bottom, clocking in at at just one-fifth to one-half of the mortality rates in much as European Christendom. To wit, current rates per 100,000 include:
Belgium: 83.1;
United Kingdom: 60.2;
Spain: 58.0;
Italy: 56.3;
Sweden: 47.5;
France: 44.9;
Netherlands: 35.3;
Arizona: 14.2;
But when context doesn’t matter, of course, any pimple can be depicted as a large boulder. Thus, the number of new cases in Arizona is allegedly soaring, suggesting that the state has jumped the gun letting its citizens out of house arrest too soon.
In fact, during the first 8 days of June, Arizona reported 7,742 new cases – a figure which is sharply higher than the 2,189 new cases reported for the last eight days of April, for example.
But that gain is entirely a function of the testing rate and then some. Thus, during the June 1 to June 8 span, the state reported 62,825 new tests, implying an infection rate of 12.3%.
By contrast, during April 22 to April 30 the state reported only 15,185 new tests (one-fourth of the June figure), implying an infection rate of 14.4%.
So the state is testing a lot more, as it has been instructed to do by Washington, and such accelerated testing is generating a falling infection rate!
And that’s not the half of it. By now there are more than enough antibody tests of different US populations to be reasonably certain that in a state like Arizona with a population of 7.38 million that there have been far more infected cases than the 27,678 cases reported through June 8.
Generally, antibody tests show infection rates of 5-20% in the general population, which would imply total cases – most of which remained asymptomatic or resulted in mild illnesses – of between 370,000 and 1.5 million for Arizona.
So, actually, higher reported cases daily may mean nothing at all as to the current status of the virus among the population. More likely, it actually means that what is already there is being slowly discovered after the fact; it’s stale, irrelevant old news, not an alarming new development, to say nothing of evidence of a hot spot.
Indeed, the latter is a meaningless but loaded term, honed for TV talking points, but is incapable of conveying any meaningful information about context at all. That is, the real test is how does what’s happening with the coronavirus now compare with year-in-and-year-out illness, hospitalization, disease and mortality trends?
Self-evidently, you do not empower the state to put its citizens under house arrest and destroy the livelihoods of millions of workers and tens of thousands of small businesses on account of a bad run of seasonal illnesses that leaves more people than usual home in bed or even heading to the hospital for treatment.
To the contrary, this whole Lockdown Nation thing is about the modern equivalent of the Black Death – the presence of a virulent killer that can takedown the young, the old, the healthy, the sick and all categories between with equal alacrity.
But, again, there is nothing to support that Grim Reaper notion in the data, and most especially not the “hot spot” flavor of the week in Texas and Arizona.
The mortality rate from all causes for Arizona for the four months from January through the end of April (latest available) is shown below.
Naturally, the total mortality rate surmounts the cause of death attribution and coding issues; and it means that unless these total death rates are significantly elevated from the norm, then nothing unusual – or at least worthy of drastic quarantine policies–is actually going on.
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On a per 100,000 basis, the Arizona’s total mortality rates for the first four months of the year have been as follows:
2016: 293;
2017: 277:
2018: 297;
2019: 285:
2020: 301;
The above does not indicate the Black Plague at loose. The tiny elevation in 2020 relative to the previous four years is just statistical noise!
Moreover, there is no new signal coming out of this “noise” owing to the higher testing and infection rates being reported in recent days. Again, the evidence for that is in the state’s own published data on hospitalization rates, among others.
Between March 23 and June 1, Arizona consistently reported new WITH-Covid hospitalization cases of between 40 and 60 per day on a statewide basis.
During June 3 through June 8, however, the number of new hospitalizations daily has dwindled to 34, 19, 17, 10, 4 and 5, respectively.
The last few days, in fact, have had the lowest new hospitalizations since before the Donald’s malpracting doctors triggered the Covid Hysteria on March 13.
So, hot spot my eye!
In this connection, they also keep trotting out the hoary old claim that the hospitals are in danger of being overrun with new cases – per the crawler on the screen yesterday during Gottleib’s appearance on bubble vision.
Alas, it never happened previously in Arizona and is not remotely in danger of happening now. Even during the peak of new hospitalizations between April 20 and May 8, the utilization rate of hospital intensive care beds rose from 72% to 78% and has remained at that level ever since.
Finally, it is worth noting that Arizona’s WITH-Covid mortality data show the same dramatic skew toward the elderly, as is true with the rest of the country. Fully 77% of the Covid deaths in Arizona have been among the 65 and older population, which comprises just 17% of the state’s overall population.
That fact alone, of course, militates strongly against the across-the-board stay-at-home and general quarantine orders in the first place.
The Arizona WITH-Covid mortality rate through June 9 breaks out as follows by age cohorts. That is to say, anyone under 55 years old driving to the Scottsdale Fashion Mall would have had a greater chance of being killed in an auto accident than being felled by the Covid:
Deaths Per 100,000 population:
<20 years: 0.1;
20-44 years: 2.1;
45-54 years: 7.5;
55-64 years: 14.9;
65+ years: 66.3;
With respect to Texas, it’s the same story. There is no “hot spot”, period.
Its reported cases and deaths through June 8 are actually far lower than those for Arizona and in the sub-basement relative to the overall USA figures, to say nothing of the nursing-home based disaster-data reported for New York and New Jersey.
That is, the number of infected cases in Texas amounts to 256 per 100,000 or 68% of the Arizona rate, 42% of the overall USA rate and just 13% of the rate of infected cases among the New York state population.
Likewise, the WITH-Covid mortality rate through June 8 in Texas was 6.2 per 100,000. That’s just 43% of the Arizona rate, 19% of the USA average and only 5% of the New York state rate.
So Texas isn’t remotely a “hot spot” or some kind of warning about reopening too soon, and is actually a thundering rebuke of the entire Lockdown Nation narrative.
That is, Texas was late and tepid about the lockdown, and among the first to begin “reopening” in early May.
Yet its reported infected case rate of 256 per 100,000 is just 10% of the real “hot spot” rate of 2,477 per 100,000 in the five boroughs of New York City; and its mortality rate of 6.2 per 100,000 population is just 3% of New York City’s 196 per 100,000 rate.
So for crying out loud, with that kind of yawning gap and rock bottom absolute level, what is this clown, Scott Gottlieb, doing on bubble vision warning about Covid dangers in Texas?
Answer: He’s grooming the sheeples in order to keep the Killer Covid narrative alive and the money and legal immunities flowing to the drug companies chasing cures and vaccines.
It goes without saying, course, that the alleged surge in new cases reported in Texas during recent days is just as bogus as the claims about Arizona.
Yes, new cases reported during June 1 to June 8 averaged 1,416 per day or about 61% higher than the rate of 877 per day reported for April 22 to April 30. Except, the number of new tests also rose by about 60% from 113,500 to 168,500, leaving the infected rate virtually unchanged at a very low 6.7%.
Again, if you want to talk “hot spots”, try New York City. The the infected rate per test has run north of 20% in the Bronx, for example.
So the question recurs. Why are people like Scott Gottlieb out pimping the Killer Covid story in the face overwhelming evidence that it it nothing of the kind.
Perhaps, it might be noted that Gottlieb went straight from medical school to various jobs at the FDA before becoming commissioner in 2017, and then heading out the revolving door to Pfizer’s Board of Directors in May 2019.
And, yes, here’s the list of the top five firms being supported by billions from Washington in the race for a Covid vaccine, which may or may not happen, but whether safe or not will be of no never-mind to Big Pharma.
After all, Washington has already indemnified them against lawsuits; pretty much guaranteed that they can name their charge per dose; and will be doing all it can to make getting a tap on the arm from one or more of the Big Pharma competitors a mandatory duty of citizenship.
Call it what you will, but don’t call it honest capitalism. And chalk it up as still another blow to the idea of limited government and personal liberty.
The five companies are Moderna, a Massachusetts-based biotechnology firm, which Dr. Fauci said he expected would enter into the final phase of clinical trials next month; the combination of Oxford University and AstraZeneca, on a similar schedule; and three large pharmaceutical companies: Johnson & Johnson, Merck and Pfizer. Each is taking a somewhat different approach.
Read more of Stockman’s analysis here.


HOUSTON RELOCK?

Houston opened to 75 % capacity on Friday , but it may not last long .
Officials are cautioning that they may need to order people back home and open a COVID-19 hospital at NRG Stadium , a football complex , as coronavirus cases surge in the nation ’ s fourth-largest city .
“ I ’ m growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice — the precipice of a disaster , ” said Lina Hidalgo , the Harris County judge who is the top official for the county ’ s five million residents .
Hidalgo ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus cases and hospitalizations in the Houston area and across Texas , which marked the outbreaks by reopening restaurants to three-quarters of their capacity .
But restarting the economy is taking its toll , Hidalgo said .
“ We ’ ve had the highest hospitalization number this Monday ; it ’ s only grown from there , ” Hidalgo said .
“ The numbers we ’ re seeing are very significant.
” Fourteen states have seen a spike in hospitalizations since Memorial Day , and the coronavirus death toll is now expected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s more than 50,000 additional deaths over the next few months .

Houston opened to 75% capacity on Friday, but it may not last long. Officials are cautioning that they may need to order people back home and open a COVID-19 hospital at NRG Stadium, a football complex, as coronavirus cases surge in the nation’s fourth-largest city.
“I’m growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice — the precipice of a disaster,” said Lina Hidalgo, the Harris County judge who is the top official for the county’s five million residents.
Hidalgo’s warning comes amid a record week for virus cases and hospitalizations in the Houston area and across Texas, which marked the outbreaks by reopening restaurants to three-quarters of their capacity.
But restarting the economy is taking its toll, Hidalgo said.
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“We’ve had the highest hospitalization number this Monday; it’s only grown from there,” Hidalgo said. “The numbers we’re seeing are very significant.”
Fourteen states have seen a spike in hospitalizations since Memorial Day, and the coronavirus death toll is now expected to reach almost 170,000 by October. That’s more than 50,000 additional deaths over the next few months.
www.cbsnews.com/news/houston-lockdown-again-coronavirus-covid-19-texas/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Is Disney the next big company to go bankrupt?

Can Disney go bankrupt with its huge debt ?
Well lets lay about it .

Can Disney go bankrupt with its huge debt? Well lets lay about it.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Bear Market is Just Beginning: Here’s Why

Bear season isn ’ t over , and the market is about to get shafted .
Here ’ s why : The fed talks recently confirmed the suspicion that the “ V-shaped recovery ” is a myth , and it ’ ll take years for the economy to fully recover from this crisis .
The feds could never outright say “ the market is cucked ” , but they drop hints like these .
In addition , inflation rates have decreased from 1.54 % in March , to 0.33 % in April , to 0.12 % in May .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reduced consumer spending , and this is horrible for the economy/markets .
The fear of a second wave has obviously been around for a while , but it is recently picking up more steam .
States like Arizona ( who have been open for a while now ) have reported a drastic uptick in coronavirus hospitalizations/cases .
I know what you ’ re thinking , with more testing means more cases—which is true .
But , more testing does not mean more hospitalizations .
The Buffet indicator is the composite market value of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Levels over 30 % are considered “ overvalued ” , while levels over “ 60 % ” are considered “ strongly overvalued ” .
The last time the markets were considered over-valued was in 2000 , during the internet bubble .
Levels then were at 71 % , and the market subsequently crashed .
Currently , the indicator is at 74 % .
It ’ s funny how everyone on WSB shat on Buffet for selling his airline stocks at the bottom .
Do you really think a bunch of RH autists know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world ?
No .
Furthermore , institutions have begun liquidating more assets , pulling more money out of the market .
Again , who do you think knows more about the markets , you ?
Or the century-old , extremely successful “ big money ” firms ?
If the market gets cucked before his re-election , he stands almost no chance at winning .
Trump will do everything in his power to continue pumping the market .
We know that JPOW and bunker boy have big beef , and my concern is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and talk of negative yield rates .
Trump even claimed he could instantly fire JPOW ( which we know isn ’ t as simple he says ) .
This could continue to pump the market , extending the bubble further .
TLDR : economy will take a while to recover , deflation occurring , market is overvalued , corona hospitalizations increasing , big money / Buffet dropping big hints to sell , but Trump might pump markets up .
Plays : VXX calls , July expiry .
Pick your poison with the strike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
SPY puts , June/July Expiry .
Edit : furthermore , CCP is anticipating companies being delisted/prevented from being on American markets .
Source : www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/china-finalises-new-ipo-rules-for-shenzhens-chinext-startup-board-2201048 Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by elag20
Bear season isn’t over, and the market is about to get shafted. Here’s why:
JPOW
The fed talks recently confirmed the suspicion that the “V-shaped recovery” is a myth, and it’ll take years for the economy to fully recover from this crisis. The feds could never outright say “the market is cucked”, but they drop hints like these. In addition, inflation rates have decreased from 1.54% in March, to 0.33% in April, to 0.12% in May. We are dangerously close to deflation due to reduced consumer spending, and this is horrible for the economy/markets.
Coronavirus
The fear of a second wave has obviously been around for a while, but it is recently picking up more steam. States like Arizona (who have been open for a while now) have reported a drastic uptick in coronavirus hospitalizations/cases. I know what you’re thinking, with more testing means more cases—which is true. But, more testing does not mean more hospitalizations.
Overvaluation
The Buffet indicator is the composite market value of the market compared to the GDP. Levels over 30% are considered “overvalued”, while levels over “60%” are considered “strongly overvalued”. The last time the markets were considered over-valued was in 2000, during the internet bubble. Levels then were at 71%, and the market subsequently crashed. Currently, the indicator is at 74%.
Hints from big money/institutions
It’s funny how everyone on WSB shat on Buffet for selling his airline stocks at the bottom. Do you really think a bunch of RH autists know more than the smartest investor in the world? No. Furthermore, institutions have begun liquidating more assets, pulling more money out of the market. Again, who do you think knows more about the markets, you? Or the century-old, extremely successful “big money” firms?
Possible concerns:
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Trump pump
If the market gets cucked before his re-election, he stands almost no chance at winning. Trump will do everything in his power to continue pumping the market. We know that JPOW and bunker boy have big beef, and my concern is that orange man bullies JPOW into more Brrrrr and talk of negative yield rates. Trump even claimed he could instantly fire JPOW (which we know isn’t as simple he says). This could continue to pump the market, extending the bubble further.
TLDR: economy will take a while to recover, deflation occurring, market is overvalued, corona hospitalizations increasing, big money / Buffet dropping big hints to sell, but Trump might pump markets up.
Plays: VXX calls, July expiry. Pick your poison with the strike price (whatever your RiSk tOleRanCe is). SPY puts, June/July Expiry.
My plays: VXX 7/10 45c. XLF 6/19 22p.
Edit: furthermore, CCP is anticipating companies being delisted/prevented from being on American markets. Source: www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/china-finalises-new-ipo-rules-for-shenzhens-chinext-startup-board-2201048
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Some real DD from Wuhan and India on the virus

I happen to be in a position to have either first or second-hand knowledge of people in both locations .
My neighbor is a Chinese national over on an education Visa .
His wife ’ s father is a primary care doctor in Wuhan .
They take the virus VERY seriously .
They are foodies but never eat out now .
They let their packages sit for 2-3 days before bringing them in side .
They wears masks to walk their dogs in the suburbs .
It ’ s partly because of talking to them that I went all cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ storm .
So why do they take it so seriously ?
Because Wuhan go real bad .
Like bad in a way I ’ m not sure we ’ re really ready to talk about yet .
You remember the photos of mass graves ?
The hospitals they put up in literally days ?
They locked whole cities up .
And they locked people up .
In their homes .
And sometimes welded the doors shut like this : My neighbor said that many of the quarantined didn ’ t make it – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apartments for weeks .
Often they found people ’ s children still alive but sadly orphaned .
But what about India ?
Well they took it much more seriously than we did and that was enforced by the law .
So it was a nation-wide lock down mandated by law where travel was heavily restricted .
You can read about it here if you like : en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_India # Janata_Curfew So let ’ s put it together… COVID-19 is not fake news and it ’ s lethality is obviously higher than the average flu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago ) .
The U.S. did nothing comparable in terms of lockdown to China or India or any of these other countries that are successfully reopening now .
We can see that in the numbers where we have more cases than any other country despite having like 5 % of the world ’ s population .
And now we are unsurprisingly starting to see a resurgence .
This isn ’ t a second wave folks… this is still the first wave and our half-assed , yee-haw lockdown didn ’ t do much good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by BenjaminGunn
I happen to be in a position to have either first or second-hand knowledge of people in both locations.
First Wuhan.
My neighbor is a Chinese national over on an education Visa. His wife’s father is a primary care doctor in Wuhan. They take the virus VERY seriously. They are foodies but never eat out now. They let their packages sit for 2-3 days before bringing them in side. They wears masks to walk their dogs in the suburbs. It’s partly because of talking to them that I went all cash in January to better ride out the storm.
So why do they take it so seriously? Because Wuhan go real bad. Like bad in a way I’m not sure we’re really ready to talk about yet. You remember the photos of mass graves? The hospitals they put up in literally days? They locked whole cities up. And they locked people up. In their homes.
Like this:
And sometimes welded the doors shut like this:
My neighbor said that many of the quarantined didn’t make it – they were pulling the dead out of apartments for weeks. Often they found people’s children still alive but sadly orphaned.
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But what about India?
Well they took it much more seriously than we did and that was enforced by the law. So it was a nation-wide lock down mandated by law where travel was heavily restricted.
You can read about it here if you like: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_India#Janata_Curfew
Conclusion
So let’s put it together… COVID-19 is not fake news and it’s lethality is obviously higher than the average flu (we passed that a long time ago). The U.S. did nothing comparable in terms of lockdown to China or India or any of these other countries that are successfully reopening now. We can see that in the numbers where we have more cases than any other country despite having like 5% of the world’s population. And now we are unsurprisingly starting to see a resurgence.
tl;dr
This isn’t a second wave folks… this is still the first wave and our half-assed, yee-haw lockdown didn’t do much good.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--No Reserve Requirements Per The Fed!

No Reserve Requirements Per The Fed!

As unbelievable as it seems , and almost sounds like an Onion story , the Federal Reserve has ‘ reduced ’ reserve requirements to zero as of March 26 , 2020 .
So , why care ?
Because if we can ‘ take over ’ any depository institution , we can lend unlimited amounts of money , the sell the loans off in the secondary market , and make bank !
The first thing we need to do is to find the smallest market cap of a ‘ depository institution ’ to take over ; then we can lend out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread between the fed funds rate of 0 % to 0.25 % ( one quarter of a percent ) and refinancing everything under the sun at a lower interest rate .
And the best part , it is all perfectly legal .
“ Reserve Requirements As announced on March 15 , 2020 , the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26 , 2020 .
This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.
” www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm People talk about making one hundred to one on an investment , we could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy get pumped with all kinds of new money , we would also diverisfy into physical metals and such , and clean up even more as the USD becomes worthless wallpaper .
I am amazed that the current financial institutions are not already making loans like mad , since it would be the first time that easy money was available that they either are showing restraint or simply do not realize the gift that has been given to them .
I also expect this trade will become better as the Fed goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we could make bank on the overnight borrowing since it would pay interest and the spread on the borrowers .

by LouisDesyjr
As unbelievable as it seems, and almost sounds like an Onion story, the Federal Reserve has ‘reduced’ reserve requirements to zero as of March 26, 2020. So, why care? Because if we can ‘take over’ any depository institution, we can lend unlimited amounts of money, the sell the loans off in the secondary market, and make bank! The first thing we need to do is to find the smallest market cap of a ‘depository institution’ to take over; then we can lend out trillions, and make bank on the spread between the fed funds rate of 0% to 0.25% (one quarter of a percent) and refinancing everything under the sun at a lower interest rate. And the best part, it is all perfectly legal.
“Reserve Requirements As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.” www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm
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People talk about making one hundred to one on an investment, we could make 1,000 to one. And as the economy get pumped with all kinds of new money, we would also diverisfy into physical metals and such, and clean up even more as the USD becomes worthless wallpaper.
I am amazed that the current financial institutions are not already making loans like mad, since it would be the first time that easy money was available that they either are showing restraint or simply do not realize the gift that has been given to them.
I also expect this trade will become better as the Fed goes negative on interest rates shortly; then we could make bank on the overnight borrowing since it would pay interest and the spread on the borrowers.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Bank Index Could Be Creating Large Bearish Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Are Banks going to end the month with a large bearish pattern just below dual resistance ?
Possible , yet @ @ @ @ @ over !
This chart looks at the Bank Index ( BKX ) on a monthly @ @ @ @ @ month took it up to test its 61 % retracement level and old support as @ @ @ @ @ ) .
Upon hitting this level , a large reversal could be taking place at @ @ @ @ @ Friday Just The Facts Ma ’ am ; Where the bank index ends the month @ @ @ @ @ important message to the broad markets .

by Kimble Charting
Are Banks going to end the month with a large bearish pattern just below dual resistance? Possible, yet the month is far from over!
This chart looks at the Bank Index (BKX) on a monthly basis.
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The rally this month took it up to test its 61% retracement level and old support as new resistance at (1). Upon hitting this level, a large reversal could be taking place at (2).
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; Where the bank index ends the month, could send a very important message to the broad markets.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--NASDAQ: Some Historical Insights into Techno-Mania | Elliott Wave International

The Nasdaq Composite just hit an all-time high , yet the DJIA remains below its peak .
Here ’ s @ @ @ @ @ and the technology sector .

The Nasdaq Composite just hit an all-time high, yet the DJIA remains below its peak. Here’s a perspective on financial tops and the technology sector.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--High interest savings accounts seem to be dropping fast. Some comparison stats

I opened a high interest savings account last year with Ally and have seen it do nothing but drop with @ @ @ @ @ tracked all my rate change emails over the last year or so and documented the @ @ @ @ @ curious how others are faring with high interest savings accounts .
Similar ?
Different ?
@ @ @ @ @ something else .

by akwilliamson
I opened a high interest savings account last year with Ally and have seen it do nothing but drop with reserve rates decreasing. I tracked all my rate change emails over the last year or so and documented the following:
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05/21/19 – 2.20%
06/26/19 – 2.10%
08/05/19 – 1.90%
10/10/19 – 1.80%
11/13/19 – 1.70%
12/20/19 – 1.60%
3/13/20 – 1.50%
5/12/20 – 1.25%
6/11/20 – 1.10%
I’m curious how others are faring with high interest savings accounts. Similar? Different? Thinking about jumping ship into something else.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Amazon reportedly faces EU antitrust charges over use of third-party seller data

Amazon to Face Antitrust Charges From EU Over Treatment of Third-Party Sellers ( WSJ ) : The European Union is @ @ @ @ @ Amazon .
AMZN -3.38 % com Inc. over its treatment of third-party sellers , according @ @ @ @ @ matter , expanding the bloc ’ s efforts to rein in the alleged abuses of @ @ @ @ @ large U.S. technology companies .
The charges—the EU ’ s first set of formal antitrust @ @ @ @ @ be filed as early as next week or the week after , one of the @ @ @ @ @ Commission , the bloc ’ s top antitrust regulator , has been honing its case @ @ @ @ @ has been circulating a draft of the charge sheet for a couple of months , @ @ @ @

Amazon to Face Antitrust Charges From EU Over Treatment of Third-Party Sellers (WSJ):
The European Union is planning formal antitrust charges against Amazon. AMZN -3.38% com Inc. over its treatment of third-party sellers, according to people familiar with the matter, expanding the bloc’s efforts to rein in the alleged abuses of power by a handful of large U.S. technology companies.
The charges—the EU’s first set of formal antitrust accusations against the company—could officially be filed as early as next week or the week after, one of the people said. The European Commission, the bloc’s top antitrust regulator, has been honing its case, and the case team has been circulating a draft of the charge sheet for a couple of months, another person said.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--UK GDP falls 20.4% in April

UK GDP falls 20.4% in April

The UK ’ s economy shrank by 20.4 % in April – the largest monthly contraction on record – as @ @ @ @ @ full month in lockdown .
The Office for National Statistics ( ONS ) said the @ @ @ @ @ virtually all areas of activity .
The contraction is three times greater than the decline @ @ @ @ @ the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn .
But analysts said April was likely to be @ @ @ @ @ the government began easing the lockdown in May .

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360
The UK’s economy shrank by 20.4% in April – the largest monthly contraction on record – as the country spent its first full month in lockdown.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the “historic” fall affected virtually all areas of activity.
The contraction is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn.
But analysts said April was likely to be the worst month, as the government began easing the lockdown in May.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-13--Let’s put the good people behind the wheels…

Let 's put the good people behind the wheels… t.co/CaIro6wMPv

Let's put the good people behind the wheels… t.co/CaIro6wMPv
— Michael K. Reynolds (@M_K_Reynolds) June 12, 2020