investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Markets now at tipping point; roller coaster ride will be epic

The above charts and tables provide the rationale as to why the eight indices of the six countries will soon begin their marches to the following in sequence : • final bottoms in Q4 2022 with declines ranging from 78 % to 89 % below 2020 highs According the Statistical Crash Probability Analysis ’ ( SCPA ) forecasts the probability is 100 % that : • The relief rally highs for markets of the six countries have either already occurred or will occur by Friday , April 3 , 2020 .
• The eight indices will reach new 2020 lows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be clear .
Those who are still invested in stocks , mutual funds , and ETFs need to give serious consideration as to whether or not they want to stay on the wild roller coaster .
The ride will take everyone to the interim bottoms which will be within 41 % to 44 % of the eight indices ’ 2020 highs .
After reaching the bottom the indices will then ricochet back to and through the recent relief rally highs and to the post-crash highs according to the SCPA ’ s forecast .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the top is news about a cure or vaccine for the Coronavirus .
This is will enable those who choose to stay on the rollercoaster to be able to liquidate at higher prices .
After the post-crash high has occurred the SCPA ’ s probability is 100 % that the indices will then reverse to begin their descents to the final bottom which will 79 % below their 2020 highs .
The probability is 50 % for the bottom to be within 89 % The virus did not cause the crash .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were ripe for an epic market crash .
Therefore , the probability is extremely low that good news about the virus will be enough to drive the markets back to new all-time highs .
See my March 5 , 2020 article “ Overvalued stocks , freefalling US Dollar to soon cause epic market crash !
” .

The above charts and tables provide the rationale as to why the eight indices of the six countries will soon begin their marches to the following in sequence:
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new lows
interim bottoms
interim highs
final bottoms in Q4 2022 with declines ranging from 78% to 89% below 2020 highs
According the Statistical Crash Probability Analysis’ (SCPA) forecasts the probability is 100% that:
The relief rally highs for markets of the six countries have either already occurred or will occur by Friday, April 3, 2020.
The eight indices will reach new 2020 lows by April 30, 2020.
To be clear. Those who are still invested in stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs need to give serious consideration as to whether or not they want to stay on the wild roller coaster. The ride will take everyone to the interim bottoms which will be within 41% to 44% of the eight indices’ 2020 highs.
After reaching the bottom the indices will then ricochet back to and through the recent relief rally highs and to the post-crash highs according to the SCPA’s forecast. What will likely power the heart-pounding ride to the top is news about a cure or vaccine for the Coronavirus. This is will enable those who choose to stay on the rollercoaster to be able to liquidate at higher prices. After the post-crash high has occurred the SCPA’s probability is 100% that the indices will then reverse to begin their descents to the final bottom which will 79% below their 2020 highs. The probability is 50% for the bottom to be within 89%
The virus did not cause the crash. It caused the correction for markets which were ripe for an epic market crash. Therefore, the probability is extremely low that good news about the virus will be enough to drive the markets back to new all-time highs. See my March 5, 2020 article “Overvalued stocks, freefalling US Dollar to soon cause epic market crash!”.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Bailout BONUS Bonanza Going Bonkers … Again!

The banks that are begging for bailouts still cling to their bonuses .
To terrorize us into letting them keep their bonuses , the banksters are threatening to release the button on their suicide vests and blow themselves up by not taking the bailouts if they can ’ t have their bonuses .
You would think the response to that would be a no-brainer : “ O.K .
Go ahead.
” Then just walk off .
Watch , however , as the European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chair pretends to be getting firm with the banks because it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on their terms : ( The first two-minutes-and-twenty-seconds are all you need listen to .
Any more could cause medically unnecessary nausea or brain injury as he goes to say that his recommended conservative measures are “ not reflecting a specific fragility ” in the European banking system at present .
No , there ’ s none of that .
All is well in Bailout Bonus Bonanzaland .
They ’ re just doing unnecessary bailouts . )
The main thing to catch is that even Europe lacks the resolve to demand that banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they are asking for “ restraint.
” You ’ d think bonuses in failing banks would be a bailout nonstarter .
Instead , Europe is just encouraging banks to “ be very moderate ” on bonuses because some bonuses were already guaranteed .
This is the stuff that makes my head pound .
As I point out in my new ebook based on articles I wrote ten years ago , this is just , yet again , another rinse-and-repeat cycle of the head-popping stupidity that existed back in the Bush days ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ ll find the following excerpts from the book both amusing and aggravating in the extreme because of how exactly the pattern matches .
Alan Schwartz , the CEO of Bear Sterns , boldly told the world that his company had no liquidity crisis .
In fact , he claimed they were sitting on a fat cash cushion .
That was easy for him to say because he personally was sitting on a fat cash cushion of a $ 16 Million bonus from 2007 .
That was on top of his $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporation ’ s cushion turned out to be a whoopee cushion and Schwartz full of gas because Bear Sterns was sold five days later in a fire sale for about a penny on the dollar of its former worth .
Schwartz is being very quiet about his cash cushions these days… .
In July , Chairman Bernanke ( I like to call him that , now that he runs one of the organizations in charge of socializing the American economy ) told Amerika that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were “ in no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his assessment , this same man nationalized Fannie and Freddie because , apparently , conservative Republican administrations know one thing well : the best-run economies are centrally controlled by government .
Liberals , on the other hand , had nothing to do with this because they didn ’ t even know it was happening .
So , they had to be innocent .
You see , as Congressman Barney Frank said in September , “ These two entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — are not facing any kind of financial crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.
” Again , it is reassuring to know that a man with keen intuition like Barney was in charge of the House Financial Services Committee !
… By November , [ Treasury ] Secretary Paulson comforted us all again by telling us , “ Our major institutions have been stabilized .
I believe that very strongly.
” Apparently , the program was a smashing success because , immediately , the largest bank in America and some of America ’ s biggest blue-chip manufacturers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reassured in knowing that the Economic Czar still had no idea what was happening in the economy and that he felt very strongly about that .
Of course , Paulson was another man making whoopee on a cushion .
He had made as much as $ 50 Million in a bonus one year .
That does take the bottom out of a recession .
( The reassurance I keep feeling , by the way , is not that the country is strong , but that my own thinking is still clear because I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on their faces in spectacular style .
The odd thing is how they keep doing it !
I would have thought they would have lost face a long time ago . )
Well , here we are a decade later , and they still haven ’ t lost face .
Everyone just keeps right on letting them get away with it .
As you listen to Mr. Europa talk , it ’ s clear times haven ’ t changed at all essentially claiming , “ European banks are doing fine , well capitalized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them out.
” Do you hear any ring of familiarity on the bonus bonanzas with the following from a decade ago ?
In December , Merrill Lynch dispensed $ 4 Billion in bonuses to its top execs … after receiving bailout money .
Bank of America , which acquired Lynch , then became aware that Lynch ’ s loss of blood was equal to a head injury from falling off its corporate tower .
So , it asked the federal government for another twenty-billion-dollar transfusion .
If the bonuses had not happened , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less ( or about $ 16 billion ) to save it from its problems .
While BofA claimed they had no idea that Lynch would have twenty billion in fourth-quarter losses , they certainly knew about the four billion of it that their own people got at the last minute on the way to their Christmas parties .
Yet , the government didn ’ t even blink and handed over the full twenty-billion request .
This is the revised theory of trickle-down economics in action .
Bail out millionaires , and they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will put middle-class automakers to work .
Or yachts .
So far , the government has transfused its liquid gold into the banks ’ main arteries with not much more than a wish and a prayer for recovery of the money .
So much money flowing so freely is a situation ripe for abuse .
In fact , obtaining interest-free billions in these financially pinched times ( if you ’ re a millionaire ) has been easier than getting a small-business loan from the government in plush times .
If the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governed by corruption that protects the greedy from their own greed in the pretense of protecting the rest of us — you decide which ) , it would have noted that BofA bought Lynch in a firesafe that was fully considered and negotiated over the course of a weekend and that any major CEO who is such a business whiz that he thinks he can give only a weekend ’ s consideration to buying a major bank that is being sold in a bankruptcy situation HAS TO KNOW he ’ s buying a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buried bad debt that he and his team could not possibly ferret out in a weekend .
He had to have been counting on more government bailout money to come if such problems were discovered after the buyout .
To prove he was right , the government accepted his excuse that they “ couldn ’ t possible have known ” and gave BofA another $ 20 billion bailout for having been so kind as to buy a major bank at bottom-of-the-bank-basement prices negotiated by Team FedGov .
But , hey , at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bailed-out , bought-out bankrupt bank run by the Lynch mob .
And maybe that ’ s why they want those bailouts so badly .
Maybe they ’ re not sure how their going to pay themselves bonuses in a cash-strapped company .
Ah , but surely this part from another chapter a decade ago rings with familiarity today .
I offer it for the tone-deaf who haven ’ t caught the similarities yet ( or to those who just want more masochistic entertainment ) : Mr. Europa , in the video above , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about AIG ’ s bonuses when he said essentially , “ We ’ re asking them to consider toning down the bonuses a little.
” ( As window dressing for the public . )
Would that be because there might be some public outrage if we do all this again ?
I doubt it .
The public seems to be sleepwalking right through this just like last time .
So , this week , we read … Oh , so those asked to tap down a little on the bonuses are thinking about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hands for big bastardly bailouts while they think about it .
And , so far , not much public outrage !
Still , it ’ s because I hope to stir outrage that I put this little book from the past together , thinking maybe people will see all the parallels and recognize that none of it worked ; we ’ re right back at it .
I hoped they ’ ll ask themselves , “ Why are we doing all of this all over again ” or “ Why are WE LETTING @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Well , of course , that all comes down to the same old answer , too .
We ’ re afraid that banks that are too big to fail will fail on top of us .
But , then , why aren ’ t people asking , “ Why did we allow these banks that were too big to fail to get even bigger ?
” Where is the outrage ?
Still not convinced the rinse-and-repeat cycles repeat exactly ?
Read how AIG ’ s excuses for not cutting the bonuses is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the video above : It ’ s not the banks ’ place to be calling the terms with their hands out !
You see , the solution is this simple : “ Oh , you already have a promised bonus , but you want a bailout .
Fine .
Come back to us after you haven ’ t given out any bonuses for a year if you still need a bailout then .
Otherwise , have everyone sign this form that agrees to not taking their contractually promised bonus in exchange for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump is the “ great negotiator.
” so let ’ s hope he can negotiate this no-brainer a little better than Bush did ( or than Europe is now doing ) : If they want to forego their bailouts in order to keep their bonuses , LET THEM !
They will be unemployed before they can cash their bonus checks because their companies will go broke .
And , if the timing works out right , we might even be able to forego paying them their contractual bonus checks as we settle in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we can claw back all the stock buyback money by using all shareholder value to pay off all company debt .
I ’ m hoping we ’ ll use our national downtime to do a little reading and reflection to consider whether we really want to keep repeating these cycles .
I ’ ve extended free copies of my ebook , DOWNTIME : Why We Fail to Recover from Rinse and Repeat Recession Cycles to patrons who support me at the $ 10 a month level , and I ’ ll do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at that level between now and April 4th with a free day of prerelease copies on April 5th .
It ’ s a terrible bargain , really .
The book will normally sell for $ 3.49 , and you ’ ll be paying $ 10 a month in patronage , but that ’ s because you ’ re not really buying a book .
You ’ re supporting an effort to keep trying to wake people up to this nauseating endless greed , and the free ebook is just a thank-your for your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a quick , easy and sometimes entertaining read in order to get people to think about what we ’ re doing right now ; and you will be supporting that effort at a time when maybe people will think about it because they have a little downtime to sit and think .
Maybe !
And you ’ re getting to be one of the first few to read it and review it .
So , think of your contribution as more of an effort to break the central banks ’ rinse cycle on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a bit amused ) by the Keystone Kops of Kommerce .

by David Haggith
The banks that are begging for bailouts still cling to their bonuses. To terrorize us into letting them keep their bonuses, the banksters are threatening to release the button on their suicide vests and blow themselves up by not taking the bailouts if they can’t have their bonuses.
You would think the response to that would be a no-brainer: “O.K. Go ahead.” Then just walk off. Watch, however, as the European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chair pretends to be getting firm with the banks because it’s so important that we bail them out on their terms: (The first two-minutes-and-twenty-seconds are all you need listen to. Any more could cause medically unnecessary nausea or brain injury as he goes to say that his recommended conservative measures are “not reflecting a specific fragility” in the European banking system at present. No, there’s none of that. All is well in Bailout Bonus Bonanzaland. They’re just doing unnecessary bailouts.)
The main thing to catch is that even Europe lacks the resolve to demand that banks receiving bailouts stop executive bonuses. Instead, they are asking for “restraint.” You’d think bonuses in failing banks would be a bailout nonstarter. Instead, Europe is just encouraging banks to “be very moderate” on bonuses because some bonuses were already guaranteed.
This is the stuff that makes my head pound. As I point out in my new ebook based on articles I wrote ten years ago, this is just, yet again, another rinse-and-repeat cycle of the head-popping stupidity that existed back in the Bush days (and Obama days). I think you’ll find the following excerpts from the book both amusing and aggravating in the extreme because of how exactly the pattern matches.
Here’s my criticism from a decade past:
Alan Schwartz, the CEO of Bear Sterns, boldly told the world that his company had no liquidity crisis. In fact, he claimed they were sitting on a fat cash cushion. That was easy for him to say because he personally was sitting on a fat cash cushion of a $16 Million bonus from 2007. That was on top of his $35 Million salary. Unfortunately, the corporation’s cushion turned out to be a whoopee cushion and Schwartz full of gas because Bear Sterns was sold five days later in a fire sale for about a penny on the dollar of its former worth. Schwartz is being very quiet about his cash cushions these days…. In July, Chairman Bernanke (I like to call him that, now that he runs one of the organizations in charge of socializing the American economy) told Amerika that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were “in no danger of failing.” Two months after his assessment, this same man nationalized Fannie and Freddie because, apparently, conservative Republican administrations know one thing well: the best-run economies are centrally controlled by government. Liberals, on the other hand, had nothing to do with this because they didn’t even know it was happening. So, they had to be innocent. You see, as Congressman Barney Frank said in September, “These two entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — are not facing any kind of financial crisis. The more people exaggerate these problems… the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.” Again, it is reassuring to know that a man with keen intuition like Barney was in charge of the House Financial Services Committee! … By November, [Treasury] Secretary Paulson comforted us all again by telling us, “Our major institutions have been stabilized. I believe that very strongly.” Apparently, the program was a smashing success because, immediately, the largest bank in America and some of America’s biggest blue-chip manufacturers went bankrupt. Again, I was reassured in knowing that the Economic Czar still had no idea what was happening in the economy and that he felt very strongly about that. Of course, Paulson was another man making whoopee on a cushion. He had made as much as $50 Million in a bonus one year. That does take the bottom out of a recession. (The reassurance I keep feeling, by the way, is not that the country is strong, but that my own thinking is still clear because I keep watching those I disagree with skid on their faces in spectacular style. The odd thing is how they keep doing it! I would have thought they would have lost face a long time ago.) Downtime
Well, here we are a decade later, and they still haven’t lost face. Everyone just keeps right on letting them get away with it. As you listen to Mr. Europa talk, it’s clear times haven’t changed at all essentially claiming, “European banks are doing fine, well capitalized, even though we’re bailing them out.”
Do you hear any ring of familiarity on the bonus bonanzas with the following from a decade ago?
In December, Merrill Lynch dispensed $4 Billion in bonuses to its top execs … after receiving bailout money. Bank of America, which acquired Lynch, then became aware that Lynch’s loss of blood was equal to a head injury from falling off its corporate tower. So, it asked the federal government for another twenty-billion-dollar transfusion. If the bonuses had not happened, BofA could have asked for a quarter less (or about $16 billion) to save it from its problems. While BofA claimed they had no idea that Lynch would have twenty billion in fourth-quarter losses, they certainly knew about the four billion of it that their own people got at the last minute on the way to their Christmas parties. Yet, the government didn’t even blink and handed over the full twenty-billion request. This is the revised theory of trickle-down economics in action. Bail out millionaires, and they will spend their new mint-green money on cars that will put middle-class automakers to work. Or yachts. So far, the government has transfused its liquid gold into the banks’ main arteries with not much more than a wish and a prayer for recovery of the money. So much money flowing so freely is a situation ripe for abuse. In fact, obtaining interest-free billions in these financially pinched times (if you’re a millionaire) has been easier than getting a small-business loan from the government in plush times. Downtime
If the government had any brains (or were not governed by corruption that protects the greedy from their own greed in the pretense of protecting the rest of us — you decide which), it would have noted that BofA bought Lynch in a firesafe that was fully considered and negotiated over the course of a weekend and that any major CEO who is such a business whiz that he thinks he can give only a weekend’s consideration to buying a major bank that is being sold in a bankruptcy situation HAS TO KNOW he’s buying a bank that undoubtedly has enormous heaps of buried bad debt that he and his team could not possibly ferret out in a weekend.
He had to have been counting on more government bailout money to come if such problems were discovered after the buyout. To prove he was right, the government accepted his excuse that they “couldn’t possible have known” and gave BofA another $20 billion bailout for having been so kind as to buy a major bank at bottom-of-the-bank-basement prices negotiated by Team FedGov.
But, hey, at least everyone got their bonuses … in the bailed-out, bought-out bankrupt bank run by the Lynch mob. And maybe that’s why they want those bailouts so badly. Maybe they’re not sure how their going to pay themselves bonuses in a cash-strapped company.
Ah, but surely this part from another chapter a decade ago rings with familiarity today. I offer it for the tone-deaf who haven’t caught the similarities yet (or to those who just want more masochistic entertainment):
Maybe it’s because of news this week that AIG is using 165,000,000 of that bailout to pay additional executive bonuses, and the US government is allowing that. Showing unprecedented restraint, the chairman of the board has agreed to try to trim these bonuses down a little … next time. Now that just puts my head in a whirling dervish like a washing machine on a spin cycle, for this very same month AIG reported that those superlative (or is that expletive?) executives created the largest quarterly corporate financial loss in world history — $61,700,000,000 down in one quarter. I’m not sure what the opposite of cross-eyed is, but my eyes are splitting like a chameleon’s just to read that wide number. “Downtime”
Mr. Europa, in the video above, could have just as easily been talking about AIG’s bonuses when he said essentially, “We’re asking them to consider toning down the bonuses a little.” (As window dressing for the public.) Would that be because there might be some public outrage if we do all this again? I doubt it. The public seems to be sleepwalking right through this just like last time.
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So, this week, we read …
“It’s a bit early to talk about the bonuses for 2020, but we are definitely thinking along the lines of showing solidarity,” Credit Suisse’s Gottstein said in the interview…. As Bloomberg reports, Deutsche Bank is considering scrapping bonuses for top management this year as regulators urge banks to preserve capital and keep lending through the coronavirus pandemic. Cutting bonuses is just one possibility…. Zero Hedge
Oh, so those asked to tap down a little on the bonuses are thinking about it! But still holding out their hands for big bastardly bailouts while they think about it.
And, so far, not much public outrage!
Still, it’s because I hope to stir outrage that I put this little book from the past together, thinking maybe people will see all the parallels and recognize that none of it worked; we’re right back at it. I hoped they’ll ask themselves, “Why are we doing all of this all over again” or “Why are WE LETTING them do it all over again?”
Well, of course, that all comes down to the same old answer, too. We’re afraid that banks that are too big to fail will fail on top of us. But, then, why aren’t people asking, “Why did we allow these banks that were too big to fail to get even bigger?” Where is the outrage?
Still not convinced the rinse-and-repeat cycles repeat exactly? Read how AIG’s excuses for not cutting the bonuses is the same excuse being used today in the video above:
Notch it down? AIG says, they cannot because it is a pre-existing contractual obligation. First, how many alligator-brained corporations do we have that are writing contracts that guarantee bonuses if you obliterate your company? Second, the government has every legal right to stipulate that no bailout money will go to corporations whose executives are receiving any bonuses at all. That would put the onus on the executives to sign consent to their loss of bonuses or lose their jobs because their business fails entirely. Then they would lose their bonuses anyway due to corporate bankruptcy. Downtime
It’s not the banks’ place to be calling the terms with their hands out! You see, the solution is this simple: “Oh, you already have a promised bonus, but you want a bailout. Fine. Come back to us after you haven’t given out any bonuses for a year if you still need a bailout then. Otherwise, have everyone sign this form that agrees to not taking their contractually promised bonus in exchange for the bailout you’re begging for.”
Trump is the “great negotiator.” so let’s hope he can negotiate this no-brainer a little better than Bush did (or than Europe is now doing):
Don’t our leaders have any ability to negotiate? This is a slam-dunk: “Everyone sign a new agreement to lose your bonuses, or we don’t bail you out.” There are ways to terminate the bonuses. Downtime
If they want to forego their bailouts in order to keep their bonuses, LET THEM! They will be unemployed before they can cash their bonus checks because their companies will go broke. And, if the timing works out right, we might even be able to forego paying them their contractual bonus checks as we settle in bankruptcy court. At the same time, we can claw back all the stock buyback money by using all shareholder value to pay off all company debt.
I’m hoping we’ll use our national downtime to do a little reading and reflection to consider whether we really want to keep repeating these cycles. I’ve extended free copies of my ebook, DOWNTIME: Why We Fail to Recover from Rinse and Repeat Recession Cycles to patrons who support me at the $10 a month level, and I’ll do the same for anyone who signs up at that level between now and April 4th with a free day of prerelease copies on April 5th.
It’s a terrible bargain, really. The book will normally sell for $3.49, and you’ll be paying $10 a month in patronage, but that’s because you’re not really buying a book. You’re supporting an effort to keep trying to wake people up to this nauseating endless greed, and the free ebook is just a thank-your for your support.
I hope the book is a quick, easy and sometimes entertaining read in order to get people to think about what we’re doing right now; and you will be supporting that effort at a time when maybe people will think about it because they have a little downtime to sit and think. Maybe! And you’re getting to be one of the first few to read it and review it. So, think of your contribution as more of an effort to break the central banks’ rinse cycle on their money-laundering machines while being agitated (and a bit amused) by the Keystone Kops of Kommerce.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--A Perfect Storm For Emerging Markets To Default On Their US Dollar Denominated Debts

Pretend for a minute that it ’ s 2019 and you ’ re Brazil .
Or maybe Turkey , your choice .
You ’ ve got a lot of infrastructure to build if you want to keep your people happy , and to fund those projects you ’ ll need to borrow a lot of money .
That ’ s not a problem , because borrowing is easy .
The whole world wants to give you US dollars at interest rates that are shockingly low compared to what prevails in your domestic financial markets .
And , icing on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dollar is likely to fall versus your country ’ s currency , making it even easier to pay off those loans .
So you load up , borrowing as much as the market will bear and use the proceeds to buy higher-yielding local bonds ( thus earning a nice spread ) while starting on those roads and bridges .
It feels like a win-win with minimal risk .
Then the coronavirus happens .
The US dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand and your local currency plunges on a global “ risk-off ” spasm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showing up in the global press : ( NHK Japan ) – The Institute of International Finance says that its latest data shows money is rapidly “ disappearing ” from emerging markets .
Since late January , cumulative outflows have surpassed levels observed at the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis .
In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic , investors are quickly selling emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian real , Indonesian rupiah , Russian ruble , and Turkish lira to buy up the US dollar .
Kristalina Georgieva , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , noted in a recent statement that investors have removed 83 billion dollars ’ worth of money from emerging markets , the largest capital outflow ever recorded .
For these countries , the problems don ’ t end there ; they have been hit hard by plummeting oil and commodity prices .
On March 18 , crude prices fell to 20 dollars a barrel , half the price of just a few weeks ago .
This is a crippling blow for the many emerging economies which are oil and commodity exporters .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positions .
The debt service ratio measures a country ’ s debt interest payments in relation to its export earnings .
The figure is said to measure the strength of a country ’ s financial position : the lower the ratio , the healthier the national finances .
For most countries , the number falls somewhere between 0 and 20 percent .
According to Atsushi Nakajima , chairman of the Research Institute of Economy , Trade , and Industry , Argentina ’ s number stands at over 60 percent , while Turkey ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
If more emerging countries see their ratios increase , it would lead to heightened concerns over the stability of the global financial system .
Such a situation could quickly develop into a debt crisis .
( Nikkei ) – Some $ 1.4 trillion worth of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds are outstanding from Asian countries , with more than half of that from China , according to Dealogic .
The resilient U.S. dollar and the resulting weakness in emerging-market currencies amid the coronavirus pandemic is increasing the risk of default on Asian companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wider credit crisis .
About $ 115 billion in Asian emerging-market debt is set to mature this year and $ 200 billion next year , according to data from Dealogic .
The dollar ’ s 7 % climb this month against a basket of currencies and a 243-basis-point blowout in Asia ex-Japan credit spreads could complicate the task of refinancing , and analysts are predicting that some stretched companies will have to seek restructurings with bondholders .
“ At the peak of the last big market sell-off [ in 2018 ] , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Asia Credit Index yielding over 10 % .
That number is now 301 , ” said Jim Veneau , head of fixed income for Asia at AXA Investment Managers .
Which brings us to the real question facing the developed world , which is : Who owns all this soon-to-default emerging market debt ?
And the answer is , as usual , lots of different people .
Big Western banks are on the hook for many of the loans .
Hedge funds and pension funds own many of the bonds .
And the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many retirees were talked into adding to their nest eggs own plenty .
So when EM debt defaults , pretty much everyone feels the pain .
Though it ’ s not clear whether anyone will notice , given what else is going on .

BY JOHN RUBINO
Pretend for a minute that it’s 2019 and you’re Brazil. Or maybe Turkey, your choice.
You’ve got a lot of infrastructure to build if you want to keep your people happy, and to fund those projects you’ll need to borrow a lot of money.
That’s not a problem, because borrowing is easy. The whole world wants to give you US dollars at interest rates that are shockingly low compared to what prevails in your domestic financial markets. And, icing on the cake, your experts tell you that the dollar is likely to fall versus your country’s currency, making it even easier to pay off those loans. So you load up, borrowing as much as the market will bear and use the proceeds to buy higher-yielding local bonds (thus earning a nice spread) while starting on those roads and bridges. It feels like a win-win with minimal risk.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Then the coronavirus happens. The US dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand and your local currency plunges on a global “risk-off” spasm.
And articles like the following start showing up in the global press:
Coronavirus jolts vulnerable economies (NHK Japan) – The Institute of International Finance says that its latest data shows money is rapidly “disappearing” from emerging markets. Since late January, cumulative outflows have surpassed levels observed at the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, investors are quickly selling emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira to buy up the US dollar. Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, noted in a recent statement that investors have removed 83 billion dollars’ worth of money from emerging markets, the largest capital outflow ever recorded. For these countries, the problems don’t end there; they have been hit hard by plummeting oil and commodity prices. On March 18, crude prices fell to 20 dollars a barrel, half the price of just a few weeks ago. This is a crippling blow for the many emerging economies which are oil and commodity exporters. Some of these countries were already in vulnerable positions. The debt service ratio measures a country’s debt interest payments in relation to its export earnings. The figure is said to measure the strength of a country’s financial position: the lower the ratio, the healthier the national finances. For most countries, the number falls somewhere between 0 and 20 percent. According to Atsushi Nakajima, chairman of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Argentina’s number stands at over 60 percent, while Turkey’s and Brazil’s exceed 30%. If more emerging countries see their ratios increase, it would lead to heightened concerns over the stability of the global financial system. Such a situation could quickly develop into a debt crisis. ——————— Dollar strength exposes cracks in Asian emerging-market debt (Nikkei) – Some $1.4 trillion worth of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds are outstanding from Asian countries, with more than half of that from China, according to Dealogic. The resilient U.S. dollar and the resulting weakness in emerging-market currencies amid the coronavirus pandemic is increasing the risk of default on Asian companies’ corporate debt, potentially triggering a wider credit crisis. About $115 billion in Asian emerging-market debt is set to mature this year and $200 billion next year, according to data from Dealogic. The dollar’s 7% climb this month against a basket of currencies and a 243-basis-point blowout in Asia ex-Japan credit spreads could complicate the task of refinancing, and analysts are predicting that some stretched companies will have to seek restructurings with bondholders. “At the peak of the last big market sell-off [in 2018], there were 150 bonds in the J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index yielding over 10%. That number is now 301,” said Jim Veneau, head of fixed income for Asia at AXA Investment Managers.
Which brings us to the real question facing the developed world, which is: Who owns all this soon-to-default emerging market debt? And the answer is, as usual, lots of different people. Big Western banks are on the hook for many of the loans. Hedge funds and pension funds own many of the bonds. And the emerging market bond funds that far too many retirees were talked into adding to their nest eggs own plenty.
So when EM debt defaults, pretty much everyone feels the pain. Though it’s not clear whether anyone will notice, given what else is going on.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Visualizing the Ever-Rising National Debt

Congress and President Trump are responding to the coronavirus pandemic by pumping over $ 2T of stimulus into the economy .
The government is sending checks to workers , guaranteeing loans to small businesses and propping up the airlines .
And all of this activity is adding to the national debt , which as our latest visual illustrates , has been exploding for years .
• For the first 50 years in our visual from 1929 until 1979 , the U.S. national debt only grew gradually .
It was just $ 16B in 1929 or about 16 % of GDP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of GDP in 1979 .
• Debt levels started to explode during the 1980s and 1990s , rising from $ 908B when Volcker raised the Fed rate to 20 % to tame inflation to $ 5.6T when the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed in 1999 .
• In the late 1990s , the growth of the national debt slowed down .
The U.S. government actually ran a surplus in 2000 , and the debt decreased as a percentage of GDP from 65 % in 1995 to 55 % in 2001 .
• The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the War on Terror , the Great Recession and now the Coronavirus crisis .
It ’ s projected to be well over 100 % of GDP for the foreseeable future , topping $ 24T this year .
We gathered figures for the national debt and a list of relevant events from The Balance , which adjusted debt figures for inflation .
We added a color-coded schema making it easier to tell every time the country adds another $ 6T to the debt .
Another way to think about national debt is to compare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A country with a small economy can ’ t afford to rack up as much debt as a large one .
Taking the long view of history illustrates how the national debt wasn ’ t always so enormous .
It was less than $ 40B throughout the entire Great Depression , and it only started to rise when the U.S. entered World War II and ramped up spending to support the military .
In fact , the debt topped $ 269B or 119 % of GDP in 1946 , the highest ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As the country recovered from World War II , the debt-to-GDP ratio actually declined even as the overall debt slowly marched upward .
Debt-to-GDP was as low as 32 % when Nixon ended the gold standard , or $ 458B .
But then the national debt started to explode in the 1980s , rising in short order from $ 908B in 1980 to $ 3.2T by the end of the decade .
The inexorable rising national debt didn ’ t slow until the late 1990s , and the country actually ran a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two decades , the country saw one crisis after another .
The terror attacks on 9/11 , the Iraq War and the global financial crisis all required extensive government spending .
And now the government is poised to add another couple trillion to the debt due to the coronavirus crisis .
President Trump entered office promising to eliminate the deficit , but he may be overseeing the largest deficit ever at $ 4T .
Of course , the size of the debt depends on the extent the coronavirus damages the economy and whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so the final numbers remain to be seen .
Want to take action while you ’ re on lockdown at home ?
Donate to the WHO ’ s COVID-19 Response Fund now .

by howmuch
Congress and President Trump are responding to the coronavirus pandemic by pumping over $2T of stimulus into the economy. The government is sending checks to workers, guaranteeing loans to small businesses and propping up the airlines. And all of this activity is adding to the national debt, which as our latest visual illustrates, has been exploding for years.
Buy this visualization
For the first 50 years in our visual from 1929 until 1979, the U.S. national debt only grew gradually. It was just $16B in 1929 or about 16% of GDP, rising to $827B or 31% of GDP in 1979.
Debt levels started to explode during the 1980s and 1990s, rising from $908B when Volcker raised the Fed rate to 20% to tame inflation to $5.6T when the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed in 1999.
In the late 1990s, the growth of the national debt slowed down. The U.S. government actually ran a surplus in 2000, and the debt decreased as a percentage of GDP from 65% in 1995 to 55% in 2001.
The U.S. debt resumed its skyrocketing trajectory with the War on Terror, the Great Recession and now the Coronavirus crisis. It’s projected to be well over 100% of GDP for the foreseeable future, topping $24T this year.
We gathered figures for the national debt and a list of relevant events from The Balance, which adjusted debt figures for inflation. We added a color-coded schema making it easier to tell every time the country adds another $6T to the debt. Another way to think about national debt is to compare it to the size of the economy. A country with a small economy can’t afford to rack up as much debt as a large one.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Taking the long view of history illustrates how the national debt wasn’t always so enormous. It was less than $40B throughout the entire Great Depression, and it only started to rise when the U.S. entered World War II and ramped up spending to support the military. In fact, the debt topped $269B or 119% of GDP in 1946, the highest ever when measured as a percentage of GDP. As the country recovered from World War II, the debt-to-GDP ratio actually declined even as the overall debt slowly marched upward. Debt-to-GDP was as low as 32% when Nixon ended the gold standard, or $458B.
But then the national debt started to explode in the 1980s, rising in short order from $908B in 1980 to $3.2T by the end of the decade. The inexorable rising national debt didn’t slow until the late 1990s, and the country actually ran a surplus in 2000. Over the next two decades, the country saw one crisis after another. The terror attacks on 9/11, the Iraq War and the global financial crisis all required extensive government spending. And now the government is poised to add another couple trillion to the debt due to the coronavirus crisis. President Trump entered office promising to eliminate the deficit, but he may be overseeing the largest deficit ever at $4T. Of course, the size of the debt depends on the extent the coronavirus damages the economy and whether Congress passes yet another round of stimulus, so the final numbers remain to be seen.
Want to take action while you’re on lockdown at home? Donate to the WHO’s COVID-19 Response Fund now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Don’t Wait For The Storm To Pass – Learn To Dance In The Rain!

Whoever doesn ’ t learn to dance in the rain will struggle to survive the virtually non-stop storms that the world will experience in the next few years .
The abrupt downturn in the global economy , triggered but not caused by coronavirus , came as a lightning bolt out of the blue .
Thus , most people are paralysed and will fall helplessly as the world unwinds 100 years of mismanagement and excesses , caused primarily by bankers , both central and commercial .
I have for years warned about the enormous risks in the financial system that inevitably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bubble continued to grow for over ten years since the 2006-9 crisis , very few understood that the last crisis was just a rehearsal with none of the underlying problems resolved .
By printing and lending $ 140 trillion since 2006 , the problem and risks weren ’ t just kicked down the road but made exponentially greater .
So here we are in the spring of 2020 with debts , unfunded liabilities and derivatives of around $ 2.5 quadrillion .
This is a sum that is impossible to fathom but if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global GDP , it gives us an idea what the world and central banks will have to grapple with in the next few years .
THERE WILL BE NO V OR U RECOVERY No one should believe for one moment that once CV is gone we will experience a V shaped recovery .
There will be no V , there will be no U and nor will we see a hockey stick recovery .
What few people understand , including the so called experts , is that there will be no recovery at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world economy has just started and will be devastating in the next 6-12 months , whether CV ends soon or not .
There always had to be a catalyst to trigger the inevitable end to the biggest economic bubble in history .
Catalysts are normally a financial event like a default of a financial institution .
But this time the world could not have been hit by a worse event than Coronavirus .
In just over one month the disease has spread like wildfire all around the world .
Currently there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The problem is that the number of cases are only a function of how many have been tested .
Since most countries only have a limited number of test kits , the real figure of infected people is most probably exponentially higher than 900,000 .
CV was discovered in Wuhan back in November 2019 .
The disease most likely spread a lot faster around the world than anyone realised since no one was tested for a long time and still today very few are tested .
The effects of CV have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unknown period .
With schools , shops , hotels , airlines and factories etc closed , most countries are not producing anything currently .
This total lockdown will not only be devastating for the world economically .
It could lead to more people suffering due to hardship , famine and health problems with lack of essential items like medicines and food , rather than from CV itself .
I pointed this out already 3 weeks ago but politically and humanely this solution has not been considered acceptable .
What the world is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the debt infested global economy would one day come to an abrupt halt has been clear for a while as I have written in many articles .
But instead of a gradual downturn , the world economy is now going to experience a fast and devastating collapse which will lead to a decline in real terms of most assets like stocks , property and debt by more than 90 % .
Real terms means measured in constant purchasing power like gold .
In the Dow for example , we have just seen on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the MACD indicator from a very high level .
This is a very important trending signal which indicates that we are likely to see at least 10 years downtrend in stock markets .
The alternative is that we will see a very rapid decline in the next 6-24 months and then the index going along the bottom for a decade or more .
Central banks around the world have so far committed $ 12 trillion of direct support via money printing .
In addition global fiscal stimulus or tax reductions of $ 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But these amounts are just a drop in the ocean .
Just take a company like Volkswagen .
They are now experiencing a cash drain of $ 2.2 billion per week .
If we multiply that by factories and businesses around the world plus assistance to individuals , we will soon see liquidity requirements of $ 10s followed by $ 100s of trillions as the financial system implodes .
If we take the Fed as an example , it has cut rates to zero and already expanded its balance sheet by $ 700 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 .
Another $ 2 trillion have been committed but that is just the start .
Just to remind ourselves , during the 2006-9 crisis the Fed ’ s balance sheet only grew by $ 1.2 trillion to $ 2 trillion in 2009 .
We will most likely see the balance sheet grow by $ trillions in the next few weeks .
AFTER US THE FLOOD Surging national debts and unlimited money printing has always been the inevitable end to periods of excesses .
We are now seeing not only the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was created , but also the end of a 300 year cycle since John Law and the Mississippi Bubble in France in 1716-20 .
We could even be at the end of a 2,000 year cycle from the Roman Empire but that only future historians will know .
In 1757 France lost a war against Prussia .
The French king Louis XV had a mistress called Mme de Pompadour .
When France lost the war she said to the king : “ Après nous le déluge ” – After us the flood , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would mean chaos and destruction for France .
And it did of course as 30 years later the French Revolution took place .
The situation is now the same , with Powell and Lagarde flooding the world with worthless money and the people virtually drowning .
Many countries are likely to experience social unrest and possibly also revolutions .
The end of the current cycle is textbook .
Bubbles everywhere , major problems in the global economy with economic and financial pressures plus a pandemic that has hit the whole world , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currency system as all currencies are debased .
They will all reach their intrinsic value of zero , but not quite at the same time , as central banks flood the world with unlimited amounts of money .
Hyperinflation will follow and then a collapse of the financial system as we know it today .
No one must believe that SDRs ( Special Drawing Rights ) issued by the IMF will make any difference to a bankrupt system .
SDRs are just a different form of paper money and a reset based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a few months maximum before it all collapses again .
The next reset thereafter will be disorderly and dramatic as central banks lose total control .
Just a few words about the EU .
It is no longer the European Union but the European Disunion – ED .
All the illusions of grandeur have gone and each ED country is now fighting for its own survival .
There is no coordination and no cross border assistance in connection with Coronavirus .
Italy , Spain and France are on the verge of collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The European banking systems under massive pressure and will most probably fail or be seriously impaired in the next 6-12 months .
So we are looking at a truly global crisis which will have irreparable repercussions for the world for a foreseeable future .
Another piece of the perfect storm is the physical gold market .
The three largest gold refiners in the world closed down their factories a week ago .
These three are based in the Canton of Ticino which is the Italian part of Switzerland .
They produce more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the world .
These refiners are closed until further notice on the order of the local government in Ticino .
This is due to the Coronavirus .
Ticino is on the border to Italy and the majority of the workers are from Italy .
The management of these refiners do not know when they can reopen and it could take a long time .
So with physical gold demand being unprecedented and with very little supply or stocks available , we are very soon likely to see the physical and paper gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like to own even 1 ounce of paper gold when there is no physical supply and many hundred times more paper gold outstanding than available physical gold .
The paper gold market can break at any time .
If I owned paper gold or a gold ETF ( which I naturally don ’ t ) I would ask for delivery on Monday .
The whole paper gold market is a total illusion like most markets today .
There is zero underlying value .
Time will very soon reveal that the paper gold market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quicksand .
For anyone who doesn ’ t own physical gold , I suggest to acquire gold at virtually any price .
You can not buy physical gold at the paper gold price you see on the screen .
You can of course buy unlimited paper gold at that price but that will soon have zero value .
Our company is fortunate to still find physical gold for our clients but that situation will not last if the refiners don ’ t start producing soon .
To make it very clear , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reality .
If you can get hold of gold buy it now without worrying about the markup .
Silver is even worse .
There is no physical silver available in large amounts .
Whatever smaller amounts are available can fetch a 100 % premium .
As the world is now entering the Dark Years that I wrote about many years ago , remember that the most important thing is helping family and friends as well as our health .

Whoever doesn’t learn to dance in the rain will struggle to survive the virtually non-stop storms that the world will experience in the next few years. The abrupt downturn in the global economy, triggered but not caused by coronavirus, came as a lightning bolt out of the blue. Thus, most people are paralysed and will fall helplessly as the world unwinds 100 years of mismanagement and excesses, caused primarily by bankers, both central and commercial.
2006-9 WAS JUST A REHEARSAL
I have for years warned about the enormous risks in the financial system that inevitably would lead to a collapse. As the bubble continued to grow for over ten years since the 2006-9 crisis, very few understood that the last crisis was just a rehearsal with none of the underlying problems resolved. By printing and lending $140 trillion since 2006, the problem and risks weren’t just kicked down the road but made exponentially greater.
So here we are in the spring of 2020 with debts, unfunded liabilities and derivatives of around $2.5 quadrillion. This is a sum that is impossible to fathom but if we say that it is almost 30x global GDP, it gives us an idea what the world and central banks will have to grapple with in the next few years.
THERE WILL BE NO V OR U RECOVERY
No one should believe for one moment that once CV is gone we will experience a V shaped recovery. There will be no V, there will be no U and nor will we see a hockey stick recovery. What few people understand, including the so called experts, is that there will be no recovery at all. An extremely rapid decline of the world economy has just started and will be devastating in the next 6-12 months, whether CV ends soon or not.
CORONAVIRUS CASES EXPONENTIALLY HIGHER THAN RECORDED
There always had to be a catalyst to trigger the inevitable end to the biggest economic bubble in history. Catalysts are normally a financial event like a default of a financial institution. But this time the world could not have been hit by a worse event than Coronavirus. In just over one month the disease has spread like wildfire all around the world. Currently there are almost 900,000 identified cases and 43,000 deaths. The problem is that the number of cases are only a function of how many have been tested. Since most countries only have a limited number of test kits, the real figure of infected people is most probably exponentially higher than 900,000. CV was discovered in Wuhan back in November 2019. The disease most likely spread a lot faster around the world than anyone realised since no one was tested for a long time and still today very few are tested.
LOCKDOWN WILL BE DEVASTATING
The effects of CV have been to shut the world down for an unknown period. With schools, shops, hotels, airlines and factories etc closed, most countries are not producing anything currently. This total lockdown will not only be devastating for the world economically. It could lead to more people suffering due to hardship, famine and health problems with lack of essential items like medicines and food, rather than from CV itself. I pointed this out already 3 weeks ago but politically and humanely this solution has not been considered acceptable.
What the world is now encountering is the perfect storm. That the debt infested global economy would one day come to an abrupt halt has been clear for a while as I have written in many articles. But instead of a gradual downturn, the world economy is now going to experience a fast and devastating collapse which will lead to a decline in real terms of most assets like stocks, property and debt by more than 90%. Real terms means measured in constant purchasing power like gold.
In the Dow for example, we have just seen on the quarterly chart, a downturn in the MACD indicator from a very high level. This is a very important trending signal which indicates that we are likely to see at least 10 years downtrend in stock markets. The alternative is that we will see a very rapid decline in the next 6-24 months and then the index going along the bottom for a decade or more.
UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING HAS STARTED
Central banks around the world have so far committed $12 trillion of direct support via money printing. In addition global fiscal stimulus or tax reductions of $5 trillion have been committed by governments. But these amounts are just a drop in the ocean. Just take a company like Volkswagen. They are now experiencing a cash drain of $2.2 billion per week. If we multiply that by factories and businesses around the world plus assistance to individuals, we will soon see liquidity requirements of $10s followed by $100s of trillions as the financial system implodes.
If we take the Fed as an example, it has cut rates to zero and already expanded its balance sheet by $700 billion to $5.5 trillion since September 2019. Another $2 trillion have been committed but that is just the start. Just to remind ourselves, during the 2006-9 crisis the Fed’s balance sheet only grew by $1.2 trillion to $2 trillion in 2009. We will most likely see the balance sheet grow by $ trillions in the next few weeks.
AFTER US THE FLOOD
Surging national debts and unlimited money printing has always been the inevitable end to periods of excesses. We are now seeing not only the end of a 100 year cycle since the Fed was created, but also the end of a 300 year cycle since John Law and the Mississippi Bubble in France in 1716-20. We could even be at the end of a 2,000 year cycle from the Roman Empire but that only future historians will know.
In 1757 France lost a war against Prussia. The French king Louis XV had a mistress called Mme de Pompadour. When France lost the war she said to the king: “Après nous le déluge” – After us the flood, meaning that the loss of the war would mean chaos and destruction for France. And it did of course as 30 years later the French Revolution took place.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The situation is now the same, with Powell and Lagarde flooding the world with worthless money and the people virtually drowning. Many countries are likely to experience social unrest and possibly also revolutions.
TEXTBOOK END TO AN ECONOMIC ERA
The end of the current cycle is textbook. Bubbles everywhere, major problems in the global economy with economic and financial pressures plus a pandemic that has hit the whole world, all simultaneously.
Next come pressures in the currency system as all currencies are debased. They will all reach their intrinsic value of zero, but not quite at the same time, as central banks flood the world with unlimited amounts of money.
Hyperinflation will follow and then a collapse of the financial system as we know it today. No one must believe that SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) issued by the IMF will make any difference to a bankrupt system. SDRs are just a different form of paper money and a reset based on new SDRs issued will have a life of a few months maximum before it all collapses again. The next reset thereafter will be disorderly and dramatic as central banks lose total control.
THE EUROPEAN DISUNION – ED
Just a few words about the EU. It is no longer the European Union but the European Disunion – ED. All the illusions of grandeur have gone and each ED country is now fighting for its own survival. There is no coordination and no cross border assistance in connection with Coronavirus. Italy, Spain and France are on the verge of collapse but are getting no aid from Germany. The European banking systems under massive pressure and will most probably fail or be seriously impaired in the next 6-12 months.
So we are looking at a truly global crisis which will have irreparable repercussions for the world for a foreseeable future.
END OF PAPER GOLD MARKET NEAR
Another piece of the perfect storm is the physical gold market. The three largest gold refiners in the world closed down their factories a week ago. These three are based in the Canton of Ticino which is the Italian part of Switzerland.
They produce more than 50% of the gold bars in the world. These refiners are closed until further notice on the order of the local government in Ticino. This is due to the Coronavirus. Ticino is on the border to Italy and the majority of the workers are from Italy. The management of these refiners do not know when they can reopen and it could take a long time.
So with physical gold demand being unprecedented and with very little supply or stocks available, we are very soon likely to see the physical and paper gold market going separate ways. Who would like to own even 1 ounce of paper gold when there is no physical supply and many hundred times more paper gold outstanding than available physical gold. The paper gold market can break at any time. If I owned paper gold or a gold ETF (which I naturally don’t) I would ask for delivery on Monday. The whole paper gold market is a total illusion like most markets today. There is zero underlying value. Time will very soon reveal that the paper gold market is just standing on a foundation of quicksand.
For anyone who doesn’t own physical gold, I suggest to acquire gold at virtually any price. You cannot buy physical gold at the paper gold price you see on the screen. You can of course buy unlimited paper gold at that price but that will soon have zero value. Our company is fortunate to still find physical gold for our clients but that situation will not last if the refiners don’t start producing soon.
To make it very clear, the screen price for gold bears no resemblance to reality. If you can get hold of gold buy it now without worrying about the markup. Silver is even worse. There is no physical silver available in large amounts. Whatever smaller amounts are available can fetch a 100% premium.
As the world is now entering the Dark Years that I wrote about many years ago, remember that the most important thing is helping family and friends as well as our health.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Acting Navy secretary: 2,700 sailors from aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt to be removed from shi

INTELSky @ Intel_Sky · 4h The COVD-19 situation on board the US aircraft carrier Theodor Roosevelt , in port in @ @ @ @ @ “ quickly deteriorating ” .
The carrier has a crew of 4.000 sailors .

Acting Navy secretary: 2,700 sailors from aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt to be removed from ship following outbreak of coronavirus on board — Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) April 1, 2020
Hard to “project power” abroad with empty carriers.
INTELSky
@Intel_Sky
·
4h
The COVD-19 situation on board the US aircraft carrier Theodor Roosevelt, in port in Guam, is described as “quickly deteriorating”. The carrier has a crew of 4.000 sailors.
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www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--In effect Friday: Costco limiting number of customers permitted in stores to 2 per card.

( WJW ) -Starting Friday , Costco will implement an updated guest shopping policy as part of its coronavirus response @ @ @ @ @ , Costco will allow no more than two people to enter any warehouse with each @ @ @ @ @ temporary change is for your safety and the safety of our employees and other members @ @ @ @ @ with our social distancing efforts , ” the website states .

(WJW)-Starting Friday, Costco will implement an updated guest shopping policy as part of its coronavirus response.
According to its website, Costco will allow no more than two people to enter any warehouse with each membership card.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“This temporary change is for your safety and the safety of our employees and other members, and to further assist with our social distancing efforts,” the website states.
fox8.com/news/costco-home-depot-now-limiting-number-of-customers-permitted-in-stores/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Don’t Sell US Treasuries! Fed Offers 6+ Months Of Repo Madness To Central Banks Around The Globe

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St This time it ’ s the Fed offering global # RepoMadness @ @ @ @ @ the globe as long as they don ’ t dump their US Treasuries to raise @ @ @ @ @ struggling economies .
Commit to tipping us monthly for our hard work creating high level @ @ @ @ @ includes interviews with top experts , analysis and short videos about investing and the economy @

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St
Another day, another bailout continues!
This time it’s the Fed offering global #RepoMadness to any central bank on the globe as long as they don’t dump their US Treasuries to raise cash to help their own struggling economies.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE
Commit to tipping us monthly for our hard work creating high level, thought provoking content that includes interviews with top experts, analysis and short videos about investing and the economy www.patreon.com/wallstformainst


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--GOOD NEWS FROM ABOVE THE LAW’S DAVID LAT: “Not an #AprilFoolsDay Joke: after 17 days at @nyulangone,

GOOD NEWS FROM ABOVE THE LAW’S DAVID LAT: “Not an #AprilFoolsDay Joke: after 17 days at @nyulangone, including 6 days on a ventilator, I’m being discharged!”

Lat was at death ’ s door when they gave him the HC/Z treatment , I believe they started the @ @ @ @ @ him on the ventilator .
Not a good sign .
HC/Z supposedly works better early @ @ @ @ @ he has asthma .
If Lat is going home , this is very good news @ @ @ @ @ bug .

Lat was at death’s door when they gave him the HC/Z treatment, I believe they started the treatment the day they put him on the ventilator. Not a good sign. HC/Z supposedly works better early in the disease progression plus he has asthma.
If Lat is going home, this is very good news for anyone that gets this bug.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Ziv


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Either China is lying about their numbers or they have really gotten rid of COVID-19 in their entire

Either China is lying about their numbers or they have really gotten rid of COVID-19 in their entire country.

Except for this news out today : Chinese county says in lockdown after coronavirus cases BEIJING , April 1 ( @ @ @ @ @ in central China ’ s Henan province said on Wednesday it had virtually banned all @ @ @ @ @ following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area .
No one can travel out @ @ @ @ @ authorisation , the county , which has a population of about 600,000 , said in @ @ @ @ @ media account .
Additionally , residents are not allowed to leave their homes for work @ @ @ @ @ do so .
Specially this right here .
Articles and news sources reporting deaths and @ @ @ @ @ China isn ’ t updating their info .
I ’ m sure their actually numbers @ @ @ @ @ how bad things were over there .

by xItsFreddy
Except for this news out today:
Chinese county says in lockdown after coronavirus cases
BEIJING, April 1 (Reuters) – A county in central China’s Henan province said on Wednesday it had virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area.
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No one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorisation, the county, which has a population of about 600,000, said in a post on its social media account. Additionally, residents are not allowed to leave their homes for work unless they have clearance to do so.
Specially this right here. Articles and news sources reporting deaths and more people infected, but China isn’t updating their info. I’m sure their actually numbers were over 200,000 confirmed with how bad things were over there.
i.imgur.com/jlr2U6f.jpg


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Gas prices should be much lower than they are now. No one is driving and market is flooded with supp

Gas prices should be much lower than they are now. No one is driving and market is flooded with supply. What is holding up the price of gas?

No one is driving anymore and with all the crude supply from US and Saudis dropping the price we should @ @ @ @ @ price .
Why is the price being artificially held up ?

by Electronic_Record
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No one is driving anymore and with all the crude supply from US and Saudis dropping the price we should be seeing daily drops in price. Why is the price being artificially held up?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Florida – Statewide Stay Home Order

Florida – Statewide Stay Home Order

“ TALLAHASSEE , Fla. ( WCTV ) — After days of mounting pressure as the coronavirus spreads in Florida , @ @ @ @ @ issued an executive order asking people to stay at home across the state .
”

“TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — After days of mounting pressure as the coronavirus spreads in Florida, Gov. Ron Desantis Wednesday issued an executive order asking people to stay at home across the state.”
www.wctv.tv/content/news/Florida-Governor-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-569286471.html
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Effective Thursday night at midnight.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--3,000 reservists called up to join Ministry of Defence’s response, Soldiers on our streets for 6 MON

3,000 reservists called up to join Ministry of Defence’s response, Soldiers on our streets for 6 MONTHS

Part-time soldiers , sailors , airmen and Royal Marines with specialist skills will be activated , says the Ministry of @ @ @ @ @ up 3,000 reservists for a six-month mobilisation to help in the fight against coronavirus and @ @ @ @ @ on notice .
Only part-time soldiers , sailors , airmen and Royal Marines with specialist @ @ @ @ @ engineering , logistics and accountancy , will be activated .
Those in the NHS and @ @ @ @ @ in the government ’ s response to the COVID-19 pandemic will not be asked to @ @ @ @ @ .

Part-time soldiers, sailors, airmen and Royal Marines with specialist skills will be activated, says the Ministry of Defence.
Britain is calling up 3,000 reservists for a six-month mobilisation to help in the fight against coronavirus and is putting their civilian employers on notice.
Only part-time soldiers, sailors, airmen and Royal Marines with specialist skills, such as in engineering, logistics and accountancy, will be activated.
Those in the NHS and other frontline services already involved in the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic will not be asked to switch into a military uniform.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--CHINA LIED, PEOPLE DIED: Spread of Coronavirus would have been reduced by 95% without China Coverup

Who ’ s to blame ?
China and WHO lapdog .
( Daily Caller ) – The world could have avoided a global pandemic had China taken action to slow the spread of coronavirus just three weeks earlier , according to a study from the University of Southampton .
Study author Dr. Shengjie Lai found that earlier action from China could have reduced the spread of the disease by up to 95 percent .
Released on March 11 , its findings paralleled messaging from President Donald Trump , who has said that China ’ s delay in making the outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prepare .
Lai created models estimating how the virus would have spread had China acted up to three weeks earlier or three weeks later .
A single week earlier would have reduced spread by 66 percent ; two weeks 86 percent ; and three weeks 95 percent .
Had China acted three weeks later , however , the number of infected would have been 67 times higher , the study found… A Comprehensive Timeline Of The Novel Coronavirus U.S. Funds World Health Organization That Boot-Licks China , With Deadly Results Senior WHO Official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Isn ’ t Part Of China HERE WE GO AGAIN : China Puts Entire County On Lockdown After New Corona Cluster Emerges EXCLUSIVE : Focused On The China Threat , This Congressman Became Aware Of Coronavirus Dangers Early On MARY MARGARET OLOHAN | April 01 , 2020 ( Daily Caller ) – Republican Indiana Rep. Jim Banks warned of the impending coronavirus pandemic days as far back as January .
The lawmaker credited his foresight to his ongoing focus on China ’ s human rights violations and the country ’ s pattern of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rather than focusing on holding China accountable or focusing on the coronavirus pandemic , Democrats are “ far more interested ” in attacking and embarrassing President Donald Trump… ‘ Unfortunate ’ China tried to cover up the genesis of coronavirus Sky News Australia | Mar 29 , 2020 It ’ s “ unfortunate ” that China covered up cases of the novel coronavirus when the disease was in its early stages , according to Labor senator Kimberley Kitching .
Early data from from the province of Wuhan has indicated the disease may have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early as October 2019 .
Senator Kitching told Sky News authorities could have handled this outbreak better if they had known about the novel pathogen earlier… CHINA LIED , PEOPLE DIED : Don ’ t Let China Off The Hook .
IN THE WORDS OF THAT HONG KONG PROTESTER , “ DON ’ T TRUST CHINA .
CHINA IS ASSHOLE.
” Ominous Reports Indicate China Hasn ’ t Contained the Coronavirus Yet .
“ You probably heard about China ’ s closing the country ’ s movie theaters shortly after reopening them .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-closings are occurring at public buildings in Shanghai .
.
.
.
Does this sound like a country of a billion people that has only a couple dozen new cases per day , as the official numbers state ?
” OUT ON A LIMB : Chinese government lying about coronavirus could impact U.S. business ties : Experts .
China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak , U.S. Intelligence Says

Who’s to blame? China and WHO lapdog.
FLASHBACK March 11: Study Concludes China Acting 3 Weeks Earlier Could Have Avoided Global Pandemic
ANDERS HAGSTROM | March 31, 2020
(Daily Caller) – The world could have avoided a global pandemic had China taken action to slow the spread of coronavirus just three weeks earlier, according to a study from the University of Southampton.
Study author Dr. Shengjie Lai found that earlier action from China could have reduced the spread of the disease by up to 95 percent. Released on March 11, its findings paralleled messaging from President Donald Trump, who has said that China’s delay in making the outbreak public cost the world precious time to prepare.
Lai created models estimating how the virus would have spread had China acted up to three weeks earlier or three weeks later. A single week earlier would have reduced spread by 66 percent; two weeks 86 percent; and three weeks 95 percent. Had China acted three weeks later, however, the number of infected would have been 67 times higher, the study found…
A Comprehensive Timeline Of The Novel Coronavirus
U.S. Funds World Health Organization That Boot-Licks China, With Deadly Results
Senior WHO Official Cuts Off Interview When Reporter Implies Taiwan Isn’t Part Of China
HERE WE GO AGAIN: China Puts Entire County On Lockdown After New Corona Cluster Emerges
EXCLUSIVE: Focused On The China Threat, This Congressman Became Aware Of Coronavirus Dangers Early On
MARY MARGARET OLOHAN | April 01, 2020
(Daily Caller) – Republican Indiana Rep. Jim Banks warned of the impending coronavirus pandemic days as far back as January.
The lawmaker credited his foresight to his ongoing focus on China’s human rights violations and the country’s pattern of misinformation and propaganda.
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Banks said that rather than focusing on holding China accountable or focusing on the coronavirus pandemic, Democrats are “far more interested” in attacking and embarrassing President Donald Trump…
‘Unfortunate’ China tried to cover up the genesis of coronavirus
Sky News Australia | Mar 29, 2020
It’s “unfortunate” that China covered up cases of the novel coronavirus when the disease was in its early stages, according to Labor senator Kimberley Kitching.
Early data from from the province of Wuhan has indicated the disease may have been known to Chinese authorities authorities as early as October 2019.
Senator Kitching told Sky News authorities could have handled this outbreak better if they had known about the novel pathogen earlier…
[Starting at 3:42 mark]
CHINA LIED, PEOPLE DIED: Don’t Let China Off The Hook.
IN THE WORDS OF THAT HONG KONG PROTESTER, “DON’T TRUST CHINA. CHINA IS ASSHOLE.” Ominous Reports Indicate China Hasn’t Contained the Coronavirus Yet. “You probably heard about China’s closing the country’s movie theaters shortly after reopening them. You probably have not heard that similar re-closings are occurring at public buildings in Shanghai. . . . Does this sound like a country of a billion people that has only a couple dozen new cases per day, as the official numbers state?”
OUT ON A LIMB: Chinese government lying about coronavirus could impact U.S. business ties: Experts.
China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
h/t Fist


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--U.S. Tops 1,000+ Deaths Today. Deaths Top 4,400 — Just One Day After Reaching 3000 Mark. 100,000 Bod

U.S. Tops 1,000+ Deaths Today. Deaths Top 4,400 — Just One Day After Reaching 3000 Mark. 100,000 Body Bags Requested by Gov

The number of coronavirus related deaths topped 4,000 in the U.S. on Tuesday night , just one day after reaching @ @ @ @

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
UPDATE: Now 5K
The number of coronavirus related deaths topped 4,000 in the U.S. on Tuesday night, just one day after reaching the 3,000 mark.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-deaths-top-4000-us-day-after-reaching-3000-mark
News: US government has requested 100,000 body bags. Pentagon will draw some initially from stockpile of 50,000 it maintains, and is looking into buying more, sources tell @ACapaccio. Somber preparation as Trump officials project as many as 200k Americans may die of coronavirus. — Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 1, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--VIDEO – Tucker Carlson: Why is our NIH director running interference for the Chicoms on coronavirus

It is obvious at this point that the Chinacoms own and control most of the media in the US .
@ @ @ @ @ our public officials are also compromised ?

It is obvious at this point that the Chinacoms own and control most of the media in the US. But just how many of our public officials are also compromised?
Must watch clip. Start at 6:30
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h/t LSR


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--RUSH: Nancy Pelosi is on her broom now on CNN lying through her teeth.

RUSH : This frosts me .
CNN , Nancy Pelosi is on her broom now on CNN lying through her teeth , claiming that Trump and McConnell admit they didn ’ t take action early enough to stop this .
It ’ s an absolute lie .
It was Pelosi that was in Chinatown in San Francisco urging people to come on down and party in January .
Trump suspended flights from China in January .
Trump did take it seriously .
This is all about impeachment .
They ’ re trying to say that Trump has admitted that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They ’ re making it all up .
RUSH : It looks like — and I ’ m not kidding — it looks like Nancy Pelosi ’ s setting the stage for impeaching Trump again over his reaction to coronavirus .
It just means they know they can ’ t beat him with anybody in an election in November .
And we have some sound bites .
He ’ s on CNN today .
You ’ ll be able to hear it for yourself .
Seventy-eight percent of black voters — Rasmussen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government ’ s coronavirus cure will be worse than the problem .
RUSH : Pelosi on CNN today with Anderson Cooper .
Here ’ s the question .
“ The president and Mitch McConnell now are now suggesting that impeachment distracted the president from responding to the virus .
Do you buy that at all ?
” PELOSI : I think that ’ s an admission that perhaps the president and the majority leader can not handle the job .
We have a life and death situation in our country , and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excuse for why they did not take action , but it does admit that they did not take action .
But that ’ s from after action review down the road .
Right now we have to work together to get the job done .
RUSH : An after action review means impeachment hearings .
They ’ re gon na do it .
They ’ re gon na try to impeach him again .
And this is made up .
Donald Trump did not say that impeachment distracted him .
They ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he didn ’ t .
He wouldn ’ t fall for that trap .
He didn ’ t fall for it .
Neither did McConnell .
Now , there was an allusion to the fact that while all of that was going on , people ’ s attention was distracted , but it wasn ’ t Trump ’ s .
Trump banned flights from China .
We ’ re going blue in the face pointing out these truths .
But Pelosi is lying look at her teeth here , flying into CNN on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Trump and McConnell are admitting they can ’ t do the job because this little impeachment thing distracted them from Americans losing their lives .
RUSH : Then she said that all of this is just the tip of the iceberg .
PELOSI : Put forth our recovery piece of this that related to how we have to invest in this next bill in the infrastructure of America .
When we ’ re talking about meeting health needs , community health centers .
When we ’ re talking about water , clean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in clean water in the legislation .
And where we ’ re talking about broadband , we talk about all that that means in tele-education , telemarketing , telemedicine .
The list goes on about how dependent people are now on the Internet , and we have a big investment in broadband to address underserved areas , rural or inner city , wherever it is .
RUSH : She doesn ’ t know even know what she ’ s talking about .
She ’ s talking here about stuffing a bunch of stuff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as though somebody ’ s opposed to clean water .
We need the Democrats in there investing in clean water because I guess some people are opposed to it .
Which is what they wanted you to believe .
Broadband , internet .
Everybody knows we need the internet up and running .
The electricity grid can not go down during all of this .
I just want to remind everybody , this is February 24th in San Francisco .
This is Nancy Pelosi in Chinatown in San Francisco .
PELOSI : You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been taken by our city .
We know that there ’ s concern about tourism throughout the world , but we think it ’ s very safe to be in Chinatown and hope that others will come .
RUSH : Come on down , the coronavirus , not a problem , it ’ s safe in Chinatown , February 24th .
She ’ s out there claiming Trump got up to speed late .
Trump had already shut down flights from China by the time she is urging people to come to Chinatown @ @ @

via rushlimbaugh
RUSH: This frosts me. CNN, Nancy Pelosi is on her broom now on CNN lying through her teeth, claiming that Trump and McConnell admit they didn’t take action early enough to stop this. It’s an absolute lie. It was Pelosi that was in Chinatown in San Francisco urging people to come on down and party in January. Trump suspended flights from China in January. Trump did take it seriously.
This is all about impeachment. They’re trying to say that Trump has admitted that the impeachment thing distracted him and so forth. They’re making it all up.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: It looks like — and I’m not kidding — it looks like Nancy Pelosi’s setting the stage for impeaching Trump again over his reaction to coronavirus. It just means they know they can’t beat him with anybody in an election in November. And we have some sound bites. He’s on CNN today. You’ll be able to hear it for yourself. Seventy-eight percent of black voters — Rasmussen poll — 78% black voters fear government’s coronavirus cure will be worse than the problem.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Pelosi on CNN today with Anderson Cooper. Here’s the question. “The president and Mitch McConnell now are now suggesting that impeachment distracted the president from responding to the virus. Do you buy that at all?”
PELOSI: I think that’s an admission that perhaps the president and the majority leader cannot handle the job. We have a life and death situation in our country, and they should not try to hide behind an excuse for why they did not take action, but it does admit that they did not take action. But that’s from after action review down the road. Right now we have to work together to get the job done.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
RUSH: An after action review means impeachment hearings. They’re gonna do it. They’re gonna try to impeach him again. And this is made up. Donald Trump did not say that impeachment distracted him. They’ve tried to say he did, but he didn’t. He wouldn’t fall for that trap. He didn’t fall for it. Neither did McConnell.
Now, there was an allusion to the fact that while all of that was going on, people’s attention was distracted, but it wasn’t Trump’s. Trump banned flights from China. We’re going blue in the face pointing out these truths. But Pelosi is lying look at her teeth here, flying into CNN on her broom trying to make it look like Trump and McConnell are admitting they can’t do the job because this little impeachment thing distracted them from Americans losing their lives.
RUSH: Then she said that all of this is just the tip of the iceberg.
PELOSI: Put forth our recovery piece of this that related to how we have to invest in this next bill in the infrastructure of America. When we’re talking about meeting health needs, community health centers. When we’re talking about water, clean water and the rest, investing heavily in clean water in the legislation. And where we’re talking about broadband, we talk about all that that means in tele-education, telemarketing, telemedicine. The list goes on about how dependent people are now on the Internet, and we have a big investment in broadband to address underserved areas, rural or inner city, wherever it is.
RUSH: She doesn’t know even know what she’s talking about. She’s talking here about stuffing a bunch of stuff into Trump’s infrastructure bill, as though somebody’s opposed to clean water. We need the Democrats in there investing in clean water because I guess some people are opposed to it. Which is what they wanted you to believe. Broadband, internet. Everybody knows we need the internet up and running. The electricity grid cannot go down during all of this. I just want to remind everybody, this is February 24th in San Francisco. This is Nancy Pelosi in Chinatown in San Francisco.
PELOSI: You should come to Chinatown. Precautions have been taken by our city. We know that there’s concern about tourism throughout the world, but we think it’s very safe to be in Chinatown and hope that others will come.
RUSH: Come on down, the coronavirus, not a problem, it’s safe in Chinatown, February 24th. She’s out there claiming Trump got up to speed late. Trump had already shut down flights from China by the time she is urging people to come to Chinatown February 24th.