investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--EIDL Emails and Portal with Screenshots

EIDL Emails and Portal with Screenshots

This community has been a lifesaver for me , so I ’ m going to give back in the form of screenshots so you can see exactly what to look for when it comes to the EIDL portal email , the portal itself , and the process once you ’ re inside .
First , my stats for the EIDL : • Single-member LLC .
Gross of about $ 93k in 2019 .
• Received EIDL Advance on 04/16 .
Here ’ s a screenshot of what that looks like in your bank account .
• Called Tier 2 reps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever told I was in the “ processing ” stage .
( Tier 2 Phone # : 1-877-641-8202 ) Ok so first things first , the portal email looks like this .
• The email comes from disastercustomerservice @ sba.gov • The email subject is : SBA Application No .
3300145XXX – Submitted Confirmation • I use Gmail and it did NOT go to my spam .
• When you create an account , it uses your email address and a 6 digit password ( 1 capitalized letter , 1 lowercase , 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ itself looks like this .
• As you can see , there are several stages : Application , Processing , and Funding .
Before you do anything , you ’ re still in the application phase , and you ’ ll move along through funding once you sign the closing documents .
• I was approved for $ 44,600 .
That is slightly less than half of my gross income from my 2019 Schedule C ( although this is just my draft , I haven ’ t filed yet ) .
I have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have any costs of goods sold .
I believe it should have been $ 46,904 , but I also have no idea what I put on my initial loan request .
Close enough , I don ’ t care .
• There are also several steps to complete : Verify Identity , Electronic Disbursement , and Sign Closing Documents .
• There ’ s also the ability to review and accept the loan amount .
I did not need to do anything for Electronic Disbursement , but I assume that ’ s to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I didn ’ t want to mess with it , so I just left it alone since it was already marked “ completed ” .
First , I did the review and accept loan amount , which takes you to this screen .
• There ’ s the slider bar , where you can choose the amount of your loan , between $ 1,000 and the max you were approved for .
• Underneath , there are the terms of your loan .
Exactly what we ’ ve been told : 30 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ payments due for a year , etc .
• The “ accept ” button got cut off in my screenshot , but basically once you are good with the loan amount , you hit accept and it takes you back to the previous page .
Next , I needed to verify my identity .
That took me to this screen .
• I answered 4 questions , all of which were typical identity verification questions like what streets I ’ ve lived on , counties I ’ ve lived in , etc .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ screen there was a button next to the loan amount that said something like “ Process Application ” .
Sorry , forgot to get a screenshot .
Now I ’ m in the “ processing stage ” .
This is what it looks like after you ’ ve completed all of that and hit the button .
When I was finished , almost IMMEDIATELY , I got this approval email .
• EDIT : SEE BELOW .
An immediate approval may not be the norm .
• Again , it came from disastercustomerservice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : SBA Application No .
3300145XXX – Approved • Again , it did not go to my spam in Gmail .
Oh , and if you notice , the time from the initial email to the approval email was like 18 minutes , and I was taking screenshots .
It really only took a couple of minutes to do everything .
• I clicked “ View Account ” in that email , which took me back to my EIDL portal , but this time I was able to sign closing documents .
Previously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasn ’ t available .
• It lets you DocuSign them , and the process was almost identical to the PPP one if you ’ ve done that .
It was very easy .
Once I read it over and signed everything , I clicked “ Finish ” .
It then had me log back in to my EIDL portal account .
You are also able to download/save/print a copy of the closing documents for yourself .
And that ’ s it for now .
I logged back into my account once and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so there ’ s nothing else for me to do but wait .
It looks like it ’ s currently in the funding stage , since the letters for funding are now red and were previously blue .
I did not get any kind of confirmation email or anything else .
Fingers crossed !
If you have any questions , feel free to ask !
EDIT : Apparently I may have been auto-approved or something , as it seems that it is NOT normal for people to have approvals that quickly .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you , don ’ t freak out .
EDIT # 2 : For those asking , the only thing I ’ ve ever done is file the initial short form application with the SBA .
I haven ’ t done my 2019 taxes yet , and I did not submit my Schedule C or anything else .
Very different from the PPP , where I submitted a ton of things .
And here is a link to the full loan documents : imgur.com/a/E2SThw7

by landmanpgh
This community has been a lifesaver for me, so I’m going to give back in the form of screenshots so you can see exactly what to look for when it comes to the EIDL portal email, the portal itself, and the process once you’re inside.
EIDL Stats
First, my stats for the EIDL:
Single-member LLC. Gross of about $93k in 2019.
Applied 03/30 short form only.
Application #33-00145XXX.
Received EIDL Advance on 04/16. Here’s a screenshot of what that looks like in your bank account.
Called Tier 2 reps a couple times, but was only ever told I was in the “processing” stage. (Tier 2 Phone #: 1-877-641-8202)
Received the portal email today (05/09/2020).
Portal Email
Ok so first things first, the portal email looks like this.
The email comes from disastercustomerservice@sba.gov
The email subject is: SBA Application No. 3300145XXX – Submitted Confirmation
I use Gmail and it did NOT go to my spam.
When you create an account, it uses your email address and a 6 digit password (1 capitalized letter, 1 lowercase, 1 number).
EIDL Portal
Next, the portal itself looks like this.
As you can see, there are several stages: Application, Processing, and Funding. Before you do anything, you’re still in the application phase, and you’ll move along through funding once you sign the closing documents.
I was approved for $44,600. That is slightly less than half of my gross income from my 2019 Schedule C (although this is just my draft, I haven’t filed yet). I have no idea why – I do not have any costs of goods sold. I believe it should have been $46,904, but I also have no idea what I put on my initial loan request. Close enough, I don’t care.
There are also several steps to complete: Verify Identity, Electronic Disbursement, and Sign Closing Documents.
There’s also the ability to review and accept the loan amount.
I did not need to do anything for Electronic Disbursement, but I assume that’s to update/edit your bank and routing information. I didn’t want to mess with it, so I just left it alone since it was already marked “completed”.
First, I did the review and accept loan amount, which takes you to this screen.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
There’s the slider bar, where you can choose the amount of your loan, between $1,000 and the max you were approved for.
Underneath, there are the terms of your loan. Exactly what we’ve been told: 30 years, 3.75% interest rate, no payments due for a year, etc.
The “accept” button got cut off in my screenshot, but basically once you are good with the loan amount, you hit accept and it takes you back to the previous page.
Next, I needed to verify my identity. That took me to this screen.
I answered 4 questions, all of which were typical identity verification questions like what streets I’ve lived on, counties I’ve lived in, etc.
After that, back at the main screen there was a button next to the loan amount that said something like “Process Application”. Sorry, forgot to get a screenshot. Now I’m in the “processing stage”.
This is what it looks like after you’ve completed all of that and hit the button.
EIDL Approval
When I was finished, almost IMMEDIATELY, I got this approval email.
EDIT: SEE BELOW. An immediate approval may not be the norm.
Again, it came from disastercustomerservice@sba.gov
The email subject was: SBA Application No. 3300145XXX – Approved
Again, it did not go to my spam in Gmail. Oh, and if you notice, the time from the initial email to the approval email was like 18 minutes, and I was taking screenshots. It really only took a couple of minutes to do everything.
I clicked “View Account” in that email, which took me back to my EIDL portal, but this time I was able to sign closing documents. Previously, the link to sign closing documents wasn’t available.
It lets you DocuSign them, and the process was almost identical to the PPP one if you’ve done that. It was very easy. Once I read it over and signed everything, I clicked “Finish”. It then had me log back in to my EIDL portal account. You are also able to download/save/print a copy of the closing documents for yourself.
And that’s it for now. I logged back into my account once and it gave me the same screen, so there’s nothing else for me to do but wait. It looks like it’s currently in the funding stage, since the letters for funding are now red and were previously blue. I did not get any kind of confirmation email or anything else. Fingers crossed!
If you have any questions, feel free to ask!
EDIT: Apparently I may have been auto-approved or something, as it seems that it is NOT normal for people to have approvals that quickly. So if that didn’t happen for you, don’t freak out.
EDIT #2: For those asking, the only thing I’ve ever done is file the initial short form application with the SBA. I haven’t done my 2019 taxes yet, and I did not submit my Schedule C or anything else. Very different from the PPP, where I submitted a ton of things.
And here is a link to the full loan documents: imgur.com/a/E2SThw7


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Why SPY will drop to 230 within two weeks

One thing I have learned trading this market for many years is that the fundamentals always play out .
The question is all about timing .
If you sold when SPX was near the bottom , you ’ d be massively screwed .
The fundamentals are bad .
Unemployment figures are rising .
Many companies have slashed a ton of their profits .
Even though the economy is about to re-open , the impact of this on the stock market hasn ’ t been felt yet and the effects will last a long time .
The truth is that this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first place .
It happened because of companies being overvalued and inflated resulting in an eventual collapse .
COVID was just a trigger and those fundamentals are still in play .
Just two years ago , nearly half of unicorns overstated their valuations , and it got much worse last year and this year : www.barrons.com/amp/articles/the-vc-bubble-is-going-to-burst-51553077853 .
The VC bubble still hasn ’ t popped yet .
Now , why do I think it is finally time that we drop now , and why do I think we drop this fast ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just another one of those “ Haha it ’ s going to crash ” posts we ’ ve seen over the last two months ?
It ’ s simple .
Retail volume has been washed out and reached a peak last week .
You can see this through aggregate order flow on stocks most traded by retail such as TSLA ( which will drop the hardest ) .
You can see this through the number of people holding stocks like that on Robinhood which has the most retail volume .
The influx of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise or during a drop ( which occurred at low 220s ) is generally indicative of a top or bottom in case of a downtrend .
When retail volume peaks in a market where the fundamentals are telling the opposite story , you go short , and you go bigly short .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by eth_trader_12
One thing I have learned trading this market for many years is that the fundamentals always play out. The question is all about timing. If you sold when SPX was near the bottom, you’d be massively screwed.
The fundamentals are bad. Unemployment figures are rising. Many companies have slashed a ton of their profits. Even though the economy is about to re-open, the impact of this on the stock market hasn’t been felt yet and the effects will last a long time.
The truth is that this drop never happened because of COVID in the first place. It happened because of companies being overvalued and inflated resulting in an eventual collapse. COVID was just a trigger and those fundamentals are still in play. Just two years ago, nearly half of unicorns overstated their valuations, and it got much worse last year and this year: www.barrons.com/amp/articles/the-vc-bubble-is-going-to-burst-51553077853. The VC bubble still hasn’t popped yet.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now, why do I think it is finally time that we drop now, and why do I think we drop this fast? Why do I think this is not just another one of those “Haha it’s going to crash” posts we’ve seen over the last two months? It’s simple. Retail volume has been washed out and reached a peak last week. You can see this through aggregate order flow on stocks most traded by retail such as TSLA (which will drop the hardest). You can see this through the number of people holding stocks like that on Robinhood which has the most retail volume. The influx of retail traders reaching a peak during a rise or during a drop (which occurred at low 220s) is generally indicative of a top or bottom in case of a downtrend.
When retail volume peaks in a market where the fundamentals are telling the opposite story, you go short, and you go bigly short.
TL;DR P SPY 240 MAY 22
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Some investment advice from an autist

Some investment advice from an autist

I see so many people here losing their life savings at a critical point in their lives so I ’ ll repeat my investment philosophy that has allowed me to be 270 % up YTD , and I ’ ve already taken out my initial investment and 75 % of my profits : • I always ask myself , if I had the option ’ s value in cash , would I still buy the option ?
If the answer is yes , I hold even tho I ’ m up 1700 % .
If no , I sell even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could help too .
Always be within your personal risk tolerance .
• Only buy options u believe in , think for yourself , write down why you ’ re buying an option and question your assumptions frequently .
• Always listen to valid arguments from people who oppose your positions .
• Have an acceptable risk profile and never jack yourself to the tits , always keep some cash so you can DCA your options .
• Look at the greeks carefully and buy options with low IV , low theta , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Realize that weeklies and holding through earnings is pure gambling and treat them as such .
• Always hedge a little bit , if you ’ re bullish just a few VXX calls and cash will be enough to bounce back if the market doesn ’ t go your way .
• Have < 10 positions open at any time so you can track them easily and close them quickly if need be .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own due diligence .

by CptTonyStark
I see so many people here losing their life savings at a critical point in their lives so I’ll repeat my investment philosophy that has allowed me to be 270% up YTD, and I’ve already taken out my initial investment and 75% of my profits:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I always ask myself, if I had the option’s value in cash, would I still buy the option? If the answer is yes, I hold even tho I’m up 1700%. If no, I sell even at -95%. Stop losses could help too. Always be within your personal risk tolerance. Only buy options u believe in, think for yourself, write down why you’re buying an option and question your assumptions frequently. Always listen to valid arguments from people who oppose your positions. Have an acceptable risk profile and never jack yourself to the tits, always keep some cash so you can DCA your options. Look at the greeks carefully and buy options with low IV, low theta, high delta and acceptable gamma. Realize that weeklies and holding through earnings is pure gambling and treat them as such. Always hedge a little bit, if you’re bullish just a few VXX calls and cash will be enough to bounce back if the market doesn’t go your way. Have <10 positions open at any time so you can track them easily and close them quickly if need be.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--This pandemic is going to change consumer behavior for the rest of history. Wait what?

This pandemic is going to change consumer behavior for the rest of history
Wait what? pic.twitter.com/M7sKbGeVjy
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) May 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--The Economist: Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy. Something has to give.

Re the dangers of the massive decoupling of # WallStreet from # MainStreet : From the editorial in @ TheEconomist @ @ @ @ @ the real economy : Financial # markets have got out of whack with the # @ @ @ @ @ give .
`` t.co/5Kt6Wyd5nj # investors # investing pic.twitter.com/jDzZSOjNs0

Re the dangers of the massive decoupling of #WallStreet from #MainStreet :
From the editorial in @TheEconomist on "The market v the real economy:
Financial #markets have got out of whack with the #economy. Something has to give."t.co/5Kt6Wyd5nj#investors #investing pic.twitter.com/jDzZSOjNs0
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--The near doubling of death predictions in a closely followed model underscores a frustrating reality

The near doubling of death predictions in a closely followed model underscores a frustrating reality : Many basic facts about @ @ @ @ @ As researchers begin to test homeless individuals in the United States for the virus that @ @ @ @ @ re discovering that the situation is out of control .
Tests are rare .
And @ @ @ @ @ radar .
t.co/LlDv6HNs6C How long might it take to restart New York City ’ s @ @ @ @ @ tell you , ” Gov .
Andrew Cuomo said last week .
This is why @ @

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) May 10, 2020
The near doubling of death predictions in a closely followed model underscores a frustrating reality: Many basic facts about the coronavirus remain unknown t.co/vEkSuIwhKI
As researchers begin to test homeless individuals in the United States for the virus that causes COVID-19, they’re discovering that the situation is out of control. Tests are rare. And outbreaks are spreading below the radar. t.co/LlDv6HNs6C
How long might it take to restart New York City’s economy?
“Nobody can tell you,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said last week.
This is why. t.co/I7Qy8SeZsK
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--DIRTY DOZEN: The 12 revelations that sunk Mueller’s case against Flynn

1 .
Flynn ’ s RT visit with Putin wasn ’ t nefarious .
In fact , it was cleared by his former employer , the Defense Intelligence Agency , and he received a defensive briefing before he went to Russia and debriefed with U.S. intelligence after he returned .
2 .
Not a Russian agent .
A Justice Department memo exonerated Flynn of Russia collusion on Jan. 30 , 2017 , nearly a year before he pled guilty .
“ The FBI did not believe Flynn was acting as an agent of Russia , ” a DOJ memo states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FBI agents wrote a memo to close the investigation of Flynn on Jan. 4 , 2017 , writing they found “ no derogatory ” evidence that Flynn committed a crime or posed a national security threat .
FBI management then ordered the closure to be rescinded and pivoted toward trying lure Flynn into an interview .
4 .
DOJ heartburn .
Senior Justice officials expressed concern and alarm at the way the FBI was treating Flynn , including trying to interview him without the normally required notification to the Trump White House .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ significant concern that White House officials weren ’ t being advised .
“ The interview was problematic from Yates ’ perspective because , as a matter of protocol and courtesy , the White House Counsel ’ s Office should have been notified beforehand , ” a DOJ memo stated .
5 .
Logan Act threat wasn ’ t real .
DOJ officials immediately did not believe Flynn could realistically be prosecuted under the Logan Act for his conversations with the Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak .
Former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe testified he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ long shot , ” and former Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord “ said that upon learning of Flynn ’ s phone calls with Ambassador Kislyak , a Logan Act prosecution seemed like a stretch to her , ” DOJ memos say .
[ 6 .
Unequal treatment .
James Comey bragged in a videotaped interview that he authorized the FBI to try to conduct a Flynn interview without the proper notifications and protocol , hoping to catch Flynn and the new Trump White House off guard .
In other words , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Flynn like others when it came to due process .
Comey said the tactic was “ something I probably wouldn ’ t have done or maybe gotten away with in a more organized administration.
” 7 .
Disguising a required warning .
FBI officials debated whether they could avoid , disguise or slip in the required FBI admonition against lying to agents at the start of Flynn ’ s interview to keep him off guard .
“ It would be an easy way to just casually slip that in , ” FBI lawyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8 .
“ Playing games.
” Then-Assistant Director for Counterintelligence William Priestap wrote in handwritten notes that he feared the bureau was “ playing games ” with the Flynn interview in an effort to get the national security adviser to lie so “ we can prosecute him or get him fired.
” 9 .
No deception .
The FBI agents who interviewed Flynn , including Peter Strzok , did not believe Flynn intended to lie or be deceptive in his interview .
“ Strzok provided his view that Flynn appeared truthful during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s team stated .
10 .
No actual denial .
The FBI agents who interviewed Flynn indicated in a draft report that Flynn did not directly deny talking to Kislyak about sanctions , as he was accused by Mueller .
Instead they noted he couldn ’ t remember , wasn ’ t sure and even conceded it was possible .
Here ’ s a direct quote from the draft interview memo .
“ FLYNN stated it was possible that he talked to KISLYAK on the issue , but if he did , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s a far cry from a direct denial .
11 . )
Interview Reports Edited .
According to evidence DOJ disclosed this month , FBI officials subsequently edited the original Flynn interview report .
After Strzok and fellow special agent Joe Pientka interviewed the Trump adviser , Pientka wrote the original interview report , known as a 302 , then Strzok heavily edited it , so much so that he worried he was “ trying not to completely re-write ” the memo .
Then FBI lawyer Lisa Page , who neither @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , edited it again , according to the DOJ evidence .
And then that version of the 302 was never given to the court .
Instead , a substitute summary of the interview written months later was presented as official evidence , an act current and former FBI officials told me was extraordinarily unusual .
12 . )
Evidence withheld .
The biggest , and perhaps most troubling discovery , according to DOJ officials and Flynn ’ s lawyers , was the majority of the above evidence was withheld from the courts and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ despite repeated orders that all exculpatory Brady materials , i.e .
evidence of innocence , be produced .
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan must still decide whether to accept the Justice Department ’ s request to dismiss the charges .
And then the judge must decide whether the prosecutors and agents in the case should face punishment .

by CrsCrpr
1. Flynn’s RT visit with Putin wasn’t nefarious. In fact, it was cleared by his former employer, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and he received a defensive briefing before he went to Russia and debriefed with U.S. intelligence after he returned.
thehill.com/opinion/white-house/423558-exculpatory-russia-evidence-about-mike-flynn-that-us-intel-kept-secret
2. Not a Russian agent. A Justice Department memo exonerated Flynn of Russia collusion on Jan. 30, 2017, nearly a year before he pled guilty. “The FBI did not believe Flynn was acting as an agent of Russia,” a DOJ memo states.
justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbis-russia-collusion-case-fell-apart-first-month-trump-presidency
3. Case closed memo. FBI agents wrote a memo to close the investigation of Flynn on Jan. 4, 2017, writing they found “no derogatory” evidence that Flynn committed a crime or posed a national security threat. FBI management then ordered the closure to be rescinded and pivoted toward trying lure Flynn into an interview.
justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/fbi-found-no-derogatory-russia-evidence-flynn-planned
4. DOJ heartburn. Senior Justice officials expressed concern and alarm at the way the FBI was treating Flynn, including trying to interview him without the normally required notification to the Trump White House. Former acting Attorney General Sally Yates expressed significant concern that White House officials weren’t being advised. “The interview was problematic from Yates’ perspective because, as a matter of protocol and courtesy, the White House Counsel’s Office should have been notified beforehand,” a DOJ memo stated.
justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/yates-other-obama-doj-officials-sounded-alarm-about-fbis-treatment
5. Logan Act threat wasn’t real. DOJ officials immediately did not believe Flynn could realistically be prosecuted under the Logan Act for his conversations with the Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe testified he was told such a prosecution was a “long shot,” and former Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord “said that upon learning of Flynn’s phone calls with Ambassador Kislyak, a Logan Act prosecution seemed like a stretch to her,” DOJ memos say. [
justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/yates-other-obama-doj-officials-sounded-alarm-about-fbis-treatment
6. Unequal treatment. James Comey bragged in a videotaped interview that he authorized the FBI to try to conduct a Flynn interview without the proper notifications and protocol, hoping to catch Flynn and the new Trump White House off guard. In other words, they didn’t follow procedure or treat Flynn like others when it came to due process. Comey said the tactic was “something I probably wouldn’t have done or maybe gotten away with in a more organized administration.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.foxnews.com/politics/comey-admits-decision-to-send-fbi-agents-to-interview-mike-flynn-was-not-standard
7. Disguising a required warning. FBI officials debated whether they could avoid, disguise or slip in the required FBI admonition against lying to agents at the start of Flynn’s interview to keep him off guard. “It would be an easy way to just casually slip that in,” FBI lawyer Lisa Page texted during the discussions.
justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/breaking-fbi-notes-detail-effort-catch-flynn-lie-get-him
8. “Playing games.” Then-Assistant Director for Counterintelligence William Priestap wrote in handwritten notes that he feared the bureau was “playing games” with the Flynn interview in an effort to get the national security adviser to lie so “we can prosecute him or get him fired.”
justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/breaking-fbi-notes-detail-effort-catch-flynn-lie-get-him
9. No deception. The FBI agents who interviewed Flynn, including Peter Strzok, did not believe Flynn intended to lie or be deceptive in his interview. “Strzok provided his view that Flynn appeared truthful during the interview,” a memo from Mueller’s team stated.
justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/yates-other-obama-doj-officials-sounded-alarm-about-fbis-treatment
10. No actual denial. The FBI agents who interviewed Flynn indicated in a draft report that Flynn did not directly deny talking to Kislyak about sanctions, as he was accused by Mueller. Instead they noted he couldn’t remember, wasn’t sure and even conceded it was possible. Here’s a direct quote from the draft interview memo. “FLYNN stated it was possible that he talked to KISLYAK on the issue, but if he did, he did not remember doing so.” That’s a far cry from a direct denial.
www.foxnews.com/politics/mueller-releases-missing-witness-report-of-flynns-fateful-white-house-interview
11.) Interview Reports Edited. According to evidence DOJ disclosed this month, FBI officials subsequently edited the original Flynn interview report. After Strzok and fellow special agent Joe Pientka interviewed the Trump adviser, Pientka wrote the original interview report, known as a 302, then Strzok heavily edited it, so much so that he worried he was “trying not to completely re-write” the memo. Then FBI lawyer Lisa Page, who neither attended the interview nor is an agent, edited it again, according to the DOJ evidence. And then that version of the 302 was never given to the court. Instead, a substitute summary of the interview written months later was presented as official evidence, an act current and former FBI officials told me was extraordinarily unusual.
www.wsj.com/articles/rewrite-in-flynns-case-shows-fbi-needs-reform-11588541993
12.) Evidence withheld. The biggest, and perhaps most troubling discovery, according to DOJ officials and Flynn’s lawyers, was the majority of the above evidence was withheld from the courts and Flynn’s legal team for years despite repeated orders that all exculpatory Brady materials, i.e. evidence of innocence, be produced.
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan must still decide whether to accept the Justice Department’s request to dismiss the charges. And then the judge must decide whether the prosecutors and agents in the case should face punishment.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Mayor wants to hike property taxes 32% in “crisis budget”

Are you ready for this week ’ s absurdity ?
Here ’ s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty , your finances , and your prosperity… and on occasion , poetic justice .
19 residents of Ventura County , California have died so far from Covid .
That ’ s 0.002 % of the population .
Most places would consider this a rounding error .
But in Ventura County , it ’ s 19 too many .
So the county government has now launched a ‘ contact tracing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and perhaps more later , to track down people who might have Covid , “ immediately isolate them , ” and then “ find every one of their contacts ” to isolate those people as well .
They also state that , if someone has Covid and is living in a home with other family members , “ we ’ re not going to be able to keep the person in that home .
.
.
” This is a mass surveillance apparatus that effectively amounts to a snatch-and-grab .
You get a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ removed from your home and taken away from your family because some county bureaucrat traced you to someone who might have the virus .
It ’ s like “ pre-crime ” , but even more ridiculous… I mean , look at the words they ’ re using– it ’ s up to the government now to decide who gets to stay in their own private property with their families .
Click here to watch it yourself .
Kshama Sawant is a member of the City Council of Seattle , and a proud Socialist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criticize Amazon , one of the most popular whipping boys of the Bolsheviks : “ The super-rich are out of touch with the reality they inflict on the majority of humanity .
They will ruthlessly extract the price of this pandemic recession from workers , unless we fight back .
# TaxAmazon.
” When a Twitter follower under the handle @ KarlMarxJunior suggested , “ How about # NationalizeAmazon ?
” Sawant responded : “ Yes , corporations like Amazon need to be taken into democratic public ownership , to be run by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need militant mass movements , strike actions at workplaces , to begin to fight to win this .
Because it will be a political strike against billionaires.
” Click here to see the Twitter thread .
Recently we told you how police departments in many cities across the Land of the Free were adopting new policies to NOT arrest people for petty or victimless crimes .
The idea was to keep jails from being overcrowded petri-dishes which would spread Covid-19 .
And some Texas cities were among those easing up .
Officers received @ @ @ @ @ @ @ committing a heinous crime : doing nails and eyelashes from their homes .
In an undercover sting operation , police officers caught the two women attempting to market and sell their services .
Police charged the women for a violation of the lockdown order , and held them in jail on $ 500 bond each .
This is the new criminality in 2020 : women painting nails in their own homes .
Cities with strained budgets are wondering how they are going to get through the economic devastation caused by the lockdowns .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is how cities use their scarce resources– to stake-out and arrest women for giving pedicures .
Click here to read the full story .
Nashville Mayor wants to hike property taxes 32 % in “ crisis budget ” The “ crisis budget ” plan of the mayor of Nashville is to cut spending , and raise taxes .
Now that the hard times have hit , governments will take more , and give you less .
Nashville was overspending and racking up debt in the best of times .
And now that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expects to miss out on $ 470 million of tax revenue over the next year or so .
For homeowners , that means a property tax increase of about $ 625 per year on a $ 250,000 house .
“ In the end , hard , hard decisions have to be made , ” the Mayor said .
“ Everybody is sacrificing in this budget.
” But it ’ s hard to see where the city is making sacrifices .
The new budget doesn ’ t lay-off any city employees , and in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 115 million .
Click here to read the full story .
And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world , I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide .
Because… If you live , work , bank , invest , own a business , and hold your assets all in just one country , you are putting all of your eggs in one basket .

by Simon Black of Sovereign Man
Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, your finances, and your prosperity… and on occasion, poetic justice.
Ventura County, CA to hire dozens of Covid spies
19 residents of Ventura County, California have died so far from Covid. That’s 0.002% of the population.
Most places would consider this a rounding error. But in Ventura County, it’s 19 too many.
So the county government has now launched a ‘contact tracing’ initiative to hire 50 investigators, and perhaps more later, to track down people who might have Covid, “immediately isolate them,” and then “find every one of their contacts” to isolate those people as well.
They also state that, if someone has Covid and is living in a home with other family members, “we’re not going to be able to keep the person in that home. . .”
This is a mass surveillance apparatus that effectively amounts to a snatch-and-grab. You get a knock at the door and are forcibly removed from your home and taken away from your family because some county bureaucrat traced you to someone who might have the virus.
It’s like “pre-crime”, but even more ridiculous… I mean, look at the words they’re using– it’s up to the government now to decide who gets to stay in their own private property with their families.
Click here to watch it yourself.
Seattle City Councilmember calls for nationalizing Amazon
Kshama Sawant is a member of the City Council of Seattle, and a proud Socialist.
She recently took to Twitter to criticize Amazon, one of the most popular whipping boys of the Bolsheviks:
“The super-rich are out of touch with the reality they inflict on the majority of humanity. They will ruthlessly extract the price of this pandemic recession from workers, unless we fight back. #TaxAmazon.”
When a Twitter follower under the handle @KarlMarxJunior suggested, “How about #NationalizeAmazon?” Sawant responded:
“Yes, corporations like Amazon need to be taken into democratic public ownership, to be run by workers for social good. We will need militant mass movements, strike actions at workplaces, to begin to fight to win this. Because it will be a political strike against billionaires.”
Click here to see the Twitter thread.
Undercover cops arrest women for working from home
Recently we told you how police departments in many cities across the Land of the Free were adopting new policies to NOT arrest people for petty or victimless crimes.
The idea was to keep jails from being overcrowded petri-dishes which would spread Covid-19.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And some Texas cities were among those easing up.
But not Laredo, Texas.
Officers received an anonymous tip that two women were committing a heinous crime: doing nails and eyelashes from their homes.
In an undercover sting operation, police officers caught the two women attempting to market and sell their services.
Police charged the women for a violation of the lockdown order, and held them in jail on $500 bond each.
This is the new criminality in 2020: women painting nails in their own homes.
Cities with strained budgets are wondering how they are going to get through the economic devastation caused by the lockdowns. Revenue is drying up.
And THIS is how cities use their scarce resources– to stake-out and arrest women for giving pedicures.
Click here to read the full story.
Nashville Mayor wants to hike property taxes 32% in “crisis budget”
The “crisis budget” plan of the mayor of Nashville is to cut spending, and raise taxes.
Now that the hard times have hit, governments will take more, and give you less.
Nashville was overspending and racking up debt in the best of times. And now that the economy is locked down, the city expects to miss out on $470 million of tax revenue over the next year or so.
For homeowners, that means a property tax increase of about $625 per year on a $250,000 house.
“In the end, hard, hard decisions have to be made,” the Mayor said. “Everybody is sacrificing in this budget.”
But it’s hard to see where the city is making sacrifices.
The new budget doesn’t lay-off any city employees, and in fact increases spending from last year by $115 million.
Click here to read the full story.
And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.
Because… If you live, work, bank, invest, own a business, and hold your assets all in just one country, you are putting all of your eggs in one basket.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Alert: Millions Of American Families To Be Evicted By July

Thanks To The Great Corporate States of America .
They Don ’ t Care About Us .
Millions Simply Won @ @ @ @ @ Pay Back The Backlogged Payments .
So Those Who Are 3 Months Behind Their Mortgage @ @ @ @ @ The Hold Expires .
They Will Say : You Are On Your Own .
They @ @ @ @ @ Your Mortgage/Rent That ’ s The Real Doom .
It Will Also Come With Food @ @ @ @ @ Will Increase By 9000 % We Are Beyond F*******

by AC
Thanks To The Great Corporate States of America.
They Don’t Care About Us.
Millions Simply Won’t Be Able To Pay Back The Backlogged Payments.
So Those Who Are 3 Months Behind Their Mortgage / Rent
Will Be Evicted…..Once The Hold Expires. They Will Say : You Are On Your Own.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
They Won’t Be Paying Your Mortgage/Rent
That’s The Real Doom.
It Will Also Come With Food Shortages As Well.
Crime Will Increase By 9000%
We Are Beyond F*******


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--How Badly Is Gavin Newsom’s Perma-shutdown Going? Willie Brown Is Savaging Him In The Chronicle:

This can ’ t go on .
California has to figure a way out .
“ When people were asked @ @ @ @ @ they did so in amazing numbers and with no plan .
But nobody envisioned the @ @ @ @ @ ” UPDATE : When Willie Brown and Mary Katharine Ham are on the same side @ @ @ @ @ the comments : “ Brown was probably the ‘ best ’ politician of his generation @ @ @ @ @ ) , and he appears to be giving the OK for rats to leave the @ @ @ @ @ wonder if Newsom is smart enough to get the hint .
Probably not .
”

This can’t go on. California has to figure a way out. “When people were asked to shelter in place, they did so in amazing numbers and with no plan. But nobody envisioned the shelter-in-place would last this long.”
UPDATE: When Willie Brown and Mary Katharine Ham are on the same side:
ANOTHER UPDATE: From the comments: “Brown was probably the ‘best’ politician of his generation (at least in CA), and he appears to be giving the OK for rats to leave the sinking Newsom ship. I wonder if Newsom is smart enough to get the hint. Probably not.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Mnuchin: ‘Permanent Economic Damage’ if Country Doesn’t Reopen!
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--“The case against China gets stronger by the day. It is increasingly clear that the Chinese Communis

“The case against China gets stronger by the day. It is increasingly clear that the Chinese Communist Party and Politburo concealed, falsified..

“ The case against China gets stronger by the day .
It is increasingly clear that the Chinese Communist Party and Politburo concealed , falsified and fabricated information about the rampant spread of COVID-19 for as long as 40 days before warning the world.
” US and British intelligence agencies are said to be examining evidence pointing to an emergency shutdown at the Wuhan Institute of Virology .
The evidence suggests that a “ hazardous event ” may have taken place between Oct 6-11 .
GERMAN INTELLIGENCE SAYS CHINA ASKED THE WHO TO HELP IT COVER UP COVID-19 German intelligence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chinese government asked the World Health Organization to help it cover up the coronavirus outbreak in a finding that is sure to place no small amount of renewed pressure on Beijing .
In fact , Chinese President Xi Jinping personally asked the World Health Organization to delay the release of critical information early in the outbreak , German intelligence officials conclude .
Xi met with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on January 21 to request that he withhold information about human-to-human transition and delay the declaration of a global pandemic , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news comes amid rising sentiment that China should be held financially responsible for the pandemic .
Having an additional four-to-six weeks of preparation time could have meant the world avoided the pandemic altogether , according to a study published in early March .
Researchers at the University of Southampton said that if China had acted and gone public with its information just three weeks sooner , it could have reduced the spread of the disease by as much as 95 percent .
The U.S. intelligence community , meanwhile , concluded by mid-March that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its coronavirus casualty and death rate , as in underreporting numbers .
That ’ s why the country can ‘ claim ’ that the outbreak has been worse elsewhere , like in the United States — where , oddly , we seem to be overcounting deaths , probably to help justify economy-killing shutdown orders .
THE OTHER 25 % ARE IDIOTS , OR ON THE PAYROLL : Nearly 3 in 4 Americans Blame the Chinese Government for America ’ s High Death Rate .
REMINDER : China has near-total control of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at risk as a result ?

“The case against China gets stronger by the day. It is increasingly clear that the Chinese Communist Party and Politburo concealed, falsified and fabricated information about the rampant spread of COVID-19 for as long as 40 days before warning the world.”
“The case against China gets stronger by the day. It is increasingly clear that the Chinese Communist Party and Politburo concealed, falsified and fabricated information about the rampant spread of COVID-19 for as long as 40 days before warning the world.” t.co/VKckVApr9S — Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) May 10, 2020
US and British intelligence agencies are said to be examining evidence pointing to an emergency shutdown at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The evidence suggests that a “hazardous event” may have taken place between Oct 6-11.
US and British intelligence agencies are said to be examining evidence pointing to an emergency shutdown at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The evidence suggests that a "hazardous event" may have taken place between Oct 6-11. | t.co/FsKSUYOvIZ — Mike (@Doranimated) May 10, 2020
GERMAN INTELLIGENCE SAYS CHINA ASKED THE WHO TO HELP IT COVER UP COVID-19
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
German intelligence officials say they have obtained evidence that the Chinese government asked the World Health Organization to help it cover up the coronavirus outbreak in a finding that is sure to place no small amount of renewed pressure on Beijing. In fact, Chinese President Xi Jinping personally asked the World Health Organization to delay the release of critical information early in the outbreak, German intelligence officials conclude. Xi met with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on January 21 to request that he withhold information about human-to-human transition and delay the declaration of a global pandemic, according to German magazine Der Spiegel. The news comes amid rising sentiment that China should be held financially responsible for the pandemic. Having an additional four-to-six weeks of preparation time could have meant the world avoided the pandemic altogether, according to a study published in early March. Researchers at the University of Southampton said that if China had acted and gone public with its information just three weeks sooner, it could have reduced the spread of the disease by as much as 95 percent. The U.S. intelligence community, meanwhile, concluded by mid-March that Beijing’s Communist government was fabricating its coronavirus casualty and death rate, as in underreporting numbers. That’s why the country can ‘claim’ that the outbreak has been worse elsewhere, like in the United States — where, oddly, we seem to be overcounting deaths, probably to help justify economy-killing shutdown orders.
THE OTHER 25% ARE IDIOTS, OR ON THE PAYROLL: Nearly 3 in 4 Americans Blame the Chinese Government for America’s High Death Rate.
REMINDER: China has near-total control of the world’s antibiotic supply. Is America at risk as a result?
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--A 6.4 Million Discrepancy In The Employment Report

There is a 6.4 million discrepancy between the change in employment level and the change in unemployment level .
Such is a new all time record discrepancy between employment and unemployment in the Household Survey that measures the unemployment rate .
I created the lead chart as follows : • The number of employed fell by 22.369 million .
• Those unemployed only rose by 15.938 million .
• Change in Not in Labor Force : +6.570 Million That is how the BLS calculated the unemployment rate .
The BLS is very aware they published a bogus number .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “ other reasons ” ( over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April ) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff , the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported ( on a not seasonally adjusted basis ) .
However , according to usual practice , the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded .
To maintain data integrity , no ad hoc actions are taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ data integrity ” the BLS reported a number known to be bogus .
And it does not stop there either .
Somehow , fiddling with massive outliers , and making manual adjustments to remove them , does not violate “ data integrity ” .
And it still does not stop there .
The Birth-Death Model pertains to estimates the BLS makes in regards to the birth or death of businesses not persons .
The BLS assumes that in a normal economy X number of businesses will be created .
The BLS then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employment count as a result .
This controversial procedure is widely panned , but I stopped commenting on it in January of 2014 , because the overall impact is normally tiny .
Even some prominent economists do not understand the BLS process .
It ’ s complicated , so I will leave it at that , except to say that when people comment on the adjustment , the comments are typically wildly off the mark , not the adjustment itself .
However , at economic turning points , the Birth-Death model itself is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unusual statements this month regarding the Birth Death Model .
• The BLS started with a baseline measure of unemployment known to be bogus by approximately 5 percentage points .
• Then they also applied heavily modified changes to the Birth-Death model and applied those changes to the Establishment Survey job number .
• They the apply heavily modified seasonal adjustments to both Establishment Survey Jobs Number and the Household Survey Unemployment Numbers..
I have had discussions with the BLS about this process in the past .
Specifically I have have asked for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not produce such numbers and it does not fit their methodology .
Normally , I believe the birth-death model has minor impacts .
In April , we have major changes of highly uncertain amounts .
This process makes the jobs numbers itself ( -20.5 million ) , not just the unemployment rate , highly suspect .
• It is necessary to knowingly publish a ridiculous estimate of a the unemployment rate , a key economic number , in order to maintain data integrity .
• To maintain integrity of the reported number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we bury the discrepancies in footnotes that few see and even fewer comment on .
• But hey , the stock market liked the fact we beat the street .
For further discussion of the Birth-Death model and other BLS statements for April , please see my discussion of the Jobs report : Over 20 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rises Most In History .

by Mike Shedlock
There is a 6.4 million discrepancy between the change in employment level and the change in unemployment level.
Such is a new all time record discrepancy between employment and unemployment in the Household Survey that measures the unemployment rate.
Household Survey April 2020
I created the lead chart as follows:
Discrepancy = Change in Employment Level – (-1 * Change in Unemployment Level)
Confirmation
The number of employed fell by 22.369 million.
Those unemployed only rose by 15.938 million.
Employment discrepancy is 22.369 – 15.938 = 6.431 million
Negligible Labor Force Discrepancy
Change in Labor Force: -6.431 Million
Change in Not in Labor Force: +6.570 Million
The labor force discrepancy is 6.570 – 6.431 = 0.139 million
Discrepancy Comparison
Employment Discrepancy Percentage: 28.8%
Labor Force Discrepancy Percentage: 2.1%
Unemployment Rate Formula
Unemployment Rate = (Unemployed / Labor Force) * 100
Therefore, the unemployment Rate = (23.078 / 156.481) * 100 = 14.7%
That is how the BLS calculated the unemployment rate.
Factoring in the Employment Discrepancy
Unemployment Rate = ((23.078 + 6.431) / 156.481) * 100 = 18.6%
BLS Bogus Unemployment Rate Number
The BLS is very aware they published a bogus number.
Here is the pertinent BLS statement.
If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.
Data Integrity
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To maintain “data integrity” the BLS reported a number known to be bogus.
And it does not stop there either.
Fiddling With Seasonal Adjustments
During their review of household survey data for April, BLS staff tested for outliers to determine whether any changes were needed to the seasonal adjustment models. BLS staff determined that the vast majority of household survey data series had significant outliers in April and manually added outlier terms to the seasonal adjustment models.
Somehow, fiddling with massive outliers, and making manual adjustments to remove them, does not violate “data integrity”.
And it still does not stop there.
BLS Birth-Death Model
The Birth-Death Model pertains to estimates the BLS makes in regards to the birth or death of businesses not persons.
The BLS assumes that in a normal economy X number of businesses will be created. The BLS then adds Y number of employees to its employment count as a result.
This controversial procedure is widely panned, but I stopped commenting on it in January of 2014, because the overall impact is normally tiny.
Even some prominent economists do not understand the BLS process. It’s complicated, so I will leave it at that, except to say that when people comment on the adjustment, the comments are typically wildly off the mark, not the adjustment itself.
However, at economic turning points, the Birth-Death model itself is way off base.
Fiddling With the BLS Birth-Death Model
The BLS issued unusual statements this month regarding the Birth Death Model.
The establishment survey estimates use a model to account for the relatively stable net employment change generated by business births and deaths. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between the two was no longer stable in April. Therefore, the establishment survey made changes to the birth-death model.
BLS Synopsis
The BLS started with a baseline measure of unemployment known to be bogus by approximately 5 percentage points. Then they also applied heavily modified changes to the Birth-Death model and applied those changes to the Establishment Survey job number. They the apply heavily modified seasonal adjustments to both Establishment Survey Jobs Number and the Household Survey Unemployment Numbers..
I have had discussions with the BLS about this process in the past. Specifically I have have asked for Seasonally-Adjusted Birth-Death numbers and was informed they do not produce such numbers and it does not fit their methodology.
Normally, I believe the birth-death model has minor impacts. In April, we have major changes of highly uncertain amounts.
This process makes the jobs numbers itself (-20.5 million), not just the unemployment rate, highly suspect.
Three-Point Summation
It is necessary to knowingly publish a ridiculous estimate of a the unemployment rate, a key economic number, in order to maintain data integrity. To maintain integrity of the reported number of jobs and the reported unemployment rate, we bury the discrepancies in footnotes that few see and even fewer comment on. But hey, the stock market liked the fact we beat the street.
Additional Details
For further discussion of the Birth-Death model and other BLS statements for April, please see my discussion of the Jobs report: Over 20 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rises Most In History.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--The Major Problem With Shutting Down Oil Wells

Oil well shut-ins are the new black .
Everyone , especially in the U.S. shale patch , seems to be shutting in wells in response to what is shaping up to be the Great Glut of 2020 .
Now , many are asking how all these wells will be restarted once prices improve .
The answer ?
Nobody knows .
Shutting in oil wells is markedly different from flipping a switch .
It is a job that has to be done with extreme care based on the characteristics of the formation into which the well is drilled , its rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the oil that flows from it .
But even with careful planning , there is a risk of permanent damage if the well remains shut-in for more than a couple of weeks .
Here are some of the problems shutting-in could cause in oil wells .
There is a kind of routine well shut-in that aims to increase the output of oil and/or gas by letting the pressure in the rock that contains the hydrocarbons build up .
These shut-ins never last months , however .
They are a short affair , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in rocks that have the “ proper ” pressure–that is , pressure that has the potential to build up .
This is not the case with low-pressure wells .
In low-pressure wells , experts from the Journal of Petroleum Technology write , a shut-in could negatively affect the permeability of the oil-bearing rock .
What is permeability ?
The tiny little pores in the rock where the oil and gas hide .
High reservoir pressure pushes them out relatively easily .
Low reservoir pressure keeps them in .
The problem is solvable with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let ’ s not forget that chemicals cost money , which would increase the cost of reviving the shut-in wells .
Crossflow refers to the flow of oil and gas from high-pressure areas in the rock formation to low-pressure areas .
( Yes , rock formations are not as homogenous as one might hope ) On the one hand , this is a problem because the recovery of oil and gas from a low-pressure area in the formation is more difficult .
On the other , crossflow is problematic because it results in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydrocarbons from different areas in the formation .
Separating the different hydrocarbons after the fact may not be possible .
Undulations of the wellbore are common in horizontal wells .
One of the great advantages of horizontal wells is the increased contact between the well and the reservoir .
The purpose of wellbore undulations is to further increase the contact between the well and the reservoir and improve output .
However , things get tricky with shut-ins .
Water buildup in the well is one problem that experts warn could render the well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the well , pumping it all out to get back to the oil may become uneconomical , the JPT authors note .
Other experts note that water is not the only substance that would build up in a horizontal well if it is shut-in for a lengthy period .
Heavier hydrocarbon fractions such as paraffin and tar could also accumulate in the wellbore and affect the future performance of the well negatively .
Not all wells are created equal Undulations are not the only problem for shale well shut-ins .
The bigger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terra incognita for the industry , while in conventional oil drilling , there is a lot of information on how to properly shut in wells .
Because of the specific nature of shale wells , there is a host of problems that could be caused by a lengthy shut-in , one expert in that particular field told the JPT , from problems with the on-ground equipment to unexpected chemical reactions in the reservoir rock .
In any case , water will build up as tends to happen with all shut-in wells .
Picking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be a very tricky business , and even if you are careful with the picking , you could still get a nasty surprise when you try to resume pumping from that well .
And this is where the most unpleasant difference between conventional and shale oil wells seems to lie : conventional wells don ’ t necessarily need to be shut in .
As the chief of Russia ’ s Zarubezhneft recently told local media , with a conventional well , all you need is to adjust the flow rate by 2-3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a total output reduction of 200,000 to 300,000 bpd .
This does not seem to be an option in the shale patch where all reports are either about well shut-ins or the suspension of new well drilling and fracking .
The United States is on track to reduce its crude oil production by 1.7 million bpd .
Most of this would come from well shut-ins in the shale patch .
Because of the lack of evidence about the most likely effects of these shut-ins on production , the next few months will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be much damage and producers would be quick to ramp up once prices improve .
Or maybe many of those wells will need to be plugged and abandoned , and new wells would need to be drilled .

By Irina Slav
Oil well shut-ins are the new black. Everyone, especially in the U.S. shale patch, seems to be shutting in wells in response to what is shaping up to be the Great Glut of 2020. Now, many are asking how all these wells will be restarted once prices improve.
The answer? Nobody knows.
Shutting in oil wells is markedly different from flipping a switch. It is a job that has to be done with extreme care based on the characteristics of the formation into which the well is drilled, its rate of production, and the specificities of the oil that flows from it.
But even with careful planning, there is a risk of permanent damage if the well remains shut-in for more than a couple of weeks.
Here are some of the problems shutting-in could cause in oil wells.
Under pressure
There is a kind of routine well shut-in that aims to increase the output of oil and/or gas by letting the pressure in the rock that contains the hydrocarbons build up. These shut-ins never last months, however. They are a short affair, and they are only suitable for wells drilled in rocks that have the “proper” pressure–that is, pressure that has the potential to build up.
This is not the case with low-pressure wells. In low-pressure wells, experts from the Journal of Petroleum Technology write, a shut-in could negatively affect the permeability of the oil-bearing rock.
What is permeability? The tiny little pores in the rock where the oil and gas hide. High reservoir pressure pushes them out relatively easily. Low reservoir pressure keeps them in. The problem is solvable with chemicals, the experts note, but let’s not forget that chemicals cost money, which would increase the cost of reviving the shut-in wells.
Crossflow
Crossflow refers to the flow of oil and gas from high-pressure areas in the rock formation to low-pressure areas. (Yes, rock formations are not as homogenous as one might hope) On the one hand, this is a problem because the recovery of oil and gas from a low-pressure area in the formation is more difficult. On the other, crossflow is problematic because it results in the undesirable mixing of different kinds of hydrocarbons from different areas in the formation. Separating the different hydrocarbons after the fact may not be possible.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The undulating wellbore
Undulations of the wellbore are common in horizontal wells. One of the great advantages of horizontal wells is the increased contact between the well and the reservoir. The purpose of wellbore undulations is to further increase the contact between the well and the reservoir and improve output. However, things get tricky with shut-ins.
Water buildup in the well is one problem that experts warn could render the well unusable eventually. If enough water collects in the well, pumping it all out to get back to the oil may become uneconomical, the JPT authors note. Other experts note that water is not the only substance that would build up in a horizontal well if it is shut-in for a lengthy period. Heavier hydrocarbon fractions such as paraffin and tar could also accumulate in the wellbore and affect the future performance of the well negatively.
Not all wells are created equal
Undulations are not the only problem for shale well shut-ins. The bigger problem is that shale wells shut-ins are terra incognita for the industry, while in conventional oil drilling, there is a lot of information on how to properly shut in wells.
Because of the specific nature of shale wells, there is a host of problems that could be caused by a lengthy shut-in, one expert in that particular field told the JPT, from problems with the on-ground equipment to unexpected chemical reactions in the reservoir rock. In any case, water will build up as tends to happen with all shut-in wells.
Wild cards
Picking the best well to shut in seems to be a very tricky business, and even if you are careful with the picking, you could still get a nasty surprise when you try to resume pumping from that well. And this is where the most unpleasant difference between conventional and shale oil wells seems to lie: conventional wells don’t necessarily need to be shut in.
As the chief of Russia’s Zarubezhneft recently told local media, with a conventional well, all you need is to adjust the flow rate by 2-3 percent lower, and you could get a total output reduction of 200,000 to 300,000 bpd. This does not seem to be an option in the shale patch where all reports are either about well shut-ins or the suspension of new well drilling and fracking.
The United States is on track to reduce its crude oil production by 1.7 million bpd. Most of this would come from well shut-ins in the shale patch. Because of the lack of evidence about the most likely effects of these shut-ins on production, the next few months will be interesting. Perhaps there won’t be much damage and producers would be quick to ramp up once prices improve. Or maybe many of those wells will need to be plugged and abandoned, and new wells would need to be drilled.
Uncertainty still reigns.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Truck Driver Apocalypse is here! More jobs lost in April than entire 2008 financial crisis!

“ It was ugly .
The trucking industry lost 88,300 jobs , and we lost more jobs in one month than we did in all of 2008 , ” 88,300 truck drivers lost their jobs in April , and it ’ s the biggest trucking job loss on record .
April wiped out all trucking employments gained during the past five years and a half years .
Much of the economy , most notably manufacturing , is at a standstill .
As a result , trucks aren ’ t moving .
Nearly three-quarters of all freight by weight is moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if goods aren ’ t being purchased or moved , truck drivers are out of work .
Dan Bearden ’ s Van Buren trucking company had been struggling with soaring insurance rates and falling freight prices since last year .
Then the pandemic struck like a meteor .
“ It ’ s almost like we got hit with a cataclysmic event , ” Bearden said last week .
“ And that ’ s what causes extinctions.
” “ What ’ s going on out here is that the manufacturers are shut down , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing to haul , ” said Bearden ’ s daughter , Jeri Lynn Bearden , vice president of the company .
Trucking companies are dropping their prices just to get freight , she said .
“ It ’ s just making our situation even harder.
” Dancor , with about 80 trucks and 34 drivers , has sold some real estate “ just to keep afloat , ” she said .
Trump says truckers are ‘ price gouged ’ as shipping rates plunge .
President promised to take care of drivers .
Three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of business within just 2 months due to the coronavirus outbreak .
Over half of the respondents said they expected their business to collapse within a month .
If the economy doesn ’ t open up asap the trucking industry is going to implode !
Semi truck , trailers , insurance etc etc very expensive overhead etc while economy is shutdown .
This can not go on much longer .

“It was ugly. The trucking industry lost 88,300 jobs, and we lost more jobs in one month than we did in all of 2008,”
www.ttnews.com/articles/trucking-sheds-88300-jobs-april
88,300 truck drivers lost their jobs in April, and it’s the biggest trucking job loss on record.
April wiped out all trucking employments gained during the past five years and a half years.
Much of the economy, most notably manufacturing, is at a standstill. As a result, trucks aren’t moving. Nearly three-quarters of all freight by weight is moved by truck in the US, so if goods aren’t being purchased or moved, truck drivers are out of work.
www.businessinsider.com/trucking-bloodbath-truck-drivers-lost-jobs-april-jobs-report-2020-5?amp
Dan Bearden’s Van Buren trucking company had been struggling with soaring insurance rates and falling freight prices since last year. Then the pandemic struck like a meteor.
“It’s almost like we got hit with a cataclysmic event,” Bearden said last week. “And that’s what causes extinctions.”
“What’s going on out here is that the manufacturers are shut down, which means the truck drivers have got nothing to haul,” said Bearden’s daughter, Jeri Lynn Bearden, vice president of the company.
Trucking companies are dropping their prices just to get freight, she said. “It’s just making our situation even harder.” Dancor, with about 80 trucks and 34 drivers, has sold some real estate “just to keep afloat,” she said.
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www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/131153/truckers-seeking-bankruptcy-amid-covid-19-cataclysm
Trump says truckers are ‘price gouged’ as shipping rates plunge.
President promised to take care of drivers.
www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/trump-truckers-price-gouged-shipping-rates-plunge.amp
Three quarters of British truckers expect to go out of business within just 2 months due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Over half of the respondents said they expected their business to collapse within a month.
www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-three-quarters-of-uk-hauliers-expect-to-collapse-in-two-months-2020-5?amp
If the economy doesn’t open up asap the trucking industry is going to implode!
Semi truck, trailers, insurance etc etc very expensive overhead etc while economy is shutdown. This cannot go on much longer.
h/t FP


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Mirror Mirror on the Wall – They Are Trying to Make Us Socialists After All

As we head into the end of this 51.6-year cycle which peaks in 2032 , I have warned that historically , this is when we get the most tyrannical moves on the part of governments .
They are losing power in a Private Wave and as such they become very aggressive .
This is what super-charges markets during this last two 8.6-year waves so everything is on schedule .
Note that the wave which peaked in 1929 was also a Private Wave .
Adolf Hitler was found guilty of treason and sentenced to five years in Landsberg Prison , where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prisoners Emil Maurice and Rudolf Hess .
On December 20th , 1924 , having served only nine months , Hitler was released .
This came during the last two waves and was the rise in civil discontent in Europe .
The rise in socialism in the United States came at the midpoint of this Private Wave .
We are facing what I call a very dangerous Corporate-Political-Fascist Future .
The Nazis burned books to prevent people from disagreeing with their philosophy .
Here we have YouTube , Facebook , and other “ social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with their philosophy .
CNN refuses to accept advertisements from Trump just out of sheer tyrannical hatred .
This is all the very same Fascist state of mind , yet what I find really amazing , these people call Trump FASCIST .
It has been the actions of CNN , You Tube and others that are suppressing free speech in the very same identical manner as the Nazi movement did in the 1930s .
Granted , their goals may not be to create some Aryan race .
But supporting Bill Gates who believed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ save the planet is not exactly pro-humanity .
With the corporations lining up to help create tracing-apps for this pretend Global Heath Threat , which is less that 1/10th of one percent , we are entering into a diabolical partnership where our future is being threatened and that of our families by a new type of Corporate-Political-Fascism that has never before been witnessed on such a grand scale .
Hitler ’ s “ Thousand Year Reich ” lasted only twelve years before getting destroyed .
Cyclically , they will also find this last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deserved demise .
It does not appear that CNN will still exist post-2032 .
They have sealed their own fate .
CNN is just one example that Socrates does not see as a long-term viable company .
Still , Germany was one of the world ’ s leading economies back during the NAZI era , which meant that many companies were more than happy to do business with the Nazis .
Hugo Boss produced the uniforms for the Brown Shirts , SS , and Hitler Youth .
Volkswagen was founded by the Nazis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s dream car .
IBM put its technology at the Nazis ’ Disposal as well .
In 2001 , a bombshell of a book by Edwin Black , IBM and the Holocaust , drew on over 20,000 documents unearthed from archives in numerous countries , to describe a twelve year old alliance between IBM and the Third Reich .
As for fake news , the Associated Press engaged in Self-Censorship and fired its German Jewish Staff to Placate the Nazis .
We have entered that same unholy type of partnership and this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gleefully to help tyranny .
No doubt , those in the technology world assisting governments to be able to track every person are too blinded by the money to look beyond that to a new world they are helping to create .
This becomes a sad day for our basic human and civil rights .
The markets are our only guide , for as Socrates looks at some of these companies conspiring against the people , they do not look to be surviving their own decisions post-2022 .
In January 2016 , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We warned that this was due right here with the turn in the Economic Confidence Model – January 18 , 2020 .
We should expect the markets to reflect this trend and this is where Socrates comes into play .
It is the only such system monitoring everything and correlating it on a global scale .
There are not enough analysts in the entire world to cover all the markets Socrates has been monitoring .
This will be the only tool to identify where to turn to and where to run away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basis .
This is NOT my personal opinion .
There is no human intervention in writing any of these reports on over 1,000 instruments every day .
So while there are corporations eager to assist in the demise of our way of life joining the trend of fake news and Corporate-Political-Fascism partnership , Socrates is the counter-trend technology to expose their corruption and their demise .

by Martin Armstrong
As we head into the end of this 51.6-year cycle which peaks in 2032, I have warned that historically, this is when we get the most tyrannical moves on the part of governments. They are losing power in a Private Wave and as such they become very aggressive. This is what super-charges markets during this last two 8.6-year waves so everything is on schedule.
Note that the wave which peaked in 1929 was also a Private Wave. Adolf Hitler was found guilty of treason and sentenced to five years in Landsberg Prison, where he dictated Mein Kampf to his fellow prisoners Emil Maurice and Rudolf Hess. On December 20th, 1924, having served only nine months, Hitler was released. This came during the last two waves and was the rise in civil discontent in Europe. The rise in socialism in the United States came at the midpoint of this Private Wave.
We are facing what I call a very dangerous Corporate-Political-Fascist Future. The Nazis burned books to prevent people from disagreeing with their philosophy. Here we have YouTube, Facebook, and other “social media” removing anything that also disagrees with their philosophy. CNN refuses to accept advertisements from Trump just out of sheer tyrannical hatred. This is all the very same Fascist state of mind, yet what I find really amazing, these people call Trump FASCIST. It has been the actions of CNN, You Tube and others that are suppressing free speech in the very same identical manner as the Nazi movement did in the 1930s. Granted, their goals may not be to create some Aryan race. But supporting Bill Gates who believed in reducing the world population indiscriminately to save the planet is not exactly pro-humanity.
With the corporations lining up to help create tracing-apps for this pretend Global Heath Threat, which is less that 1/10th of one percent, we are entering into a diabolical partnership where our future is being threatened and that of our families by a new type of Corporate-Political-Fascism that has never before been witnessed on such a grand scale. Hitler’s “Thousand Year Reich” lasted only twelve years before getting destroyed. Cyclically, they will also find this last 12-year interval into 2032 their own well deserved demise. It does not appear that CNN will still exist post-2032. They have sealed their own fate. CNN is just one example that Socrates does not see as a long-term viable company.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Still, Germany was one of the world’s leading economies back during the NAZI era, which meant that many companies were more than happy to do business with the Nazis. Hugo Boss produced the uniforms for the Brown Shirts, SS, and Hitler Youth. Volkswagen was founded by the Nazis, and the Beetle was Hitler’s dream car. IBM put its technology at the Nazis’ Disposal as well. In 2001, a bombshell of a book by Edwin Black, IBM and the Holocaust, drew on over 20,000 documents unearthed from archives in numerous countries, to describe a twelve year old alliance between IBM and the Third Reich. As for fake news, the Associated Press engaged in Self-Censorship and fired its German Jewish Staff to Placate the Nazis.
We have entered that same unholy type of partnership and this is very unsettling. Some companies just line-up gleefully to help tyranny.
No doubt, those in the technology world assisting governments to be able to track every person are too blinded by the money to look beyond that to a new world they are helping to create. This becomes a sad day for our basic human and civil rights. The markets are our only guide, for as Socrates looks at some of these companies conspiring against the people, they do not look to be surviving their own decisions post-2022.
In January 2016, we published the start of the Revolutionary Cycle. We warned that this was due right here with the turn in the Economic Confidence Model – January 18, 2020. We should expect the markets to reflect this trend and this is where Socrates comes into play. It is the only such system monitoring everything and correlating it on a global scale. There are not enough analysts in the entire world to cover all the markets Socrates has been monitoring. This will be the only tool to identify where to turn to and where to run away from even on a company by company basis. This is NOT my personal opinion. There is no human intervention in writing any of these reports on over 1,000 instruments every day.
So while there are corporations eager to assist in the demise of our way of life joining the trend of fake news and Corporate-Political-Fascism partnership, Socrates is the counter-trend technology to expose their corruption and their demise.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Ben Carson Says This Crisis was Intentional

Those who have brains already knew it was .
Now one of the smartest Politicians in America is telling us @ @ @ @ @ who wants to argue his intelligence needs to zip it .

Those who have brains already knew it was. Now one of the smartest Politicians in America is telling us we were right.
Anyone who wants to argue his intelligence needs to zip it.
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Carson is amazing.
h/t SouthSide


Bear meeting (Meme)

When it said “ look at yourselves ” and it showed -97 % , -98 % , -99 % and @ @ @ @ @ died

When it said “look at yourselves” and it showed -97%, -98%, -99% and -100%, I f*cking died
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h/t 100Kto0


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Joe Biden Stands Up for China: Economic “Growth of China OVERWHELMINGLY in Our Interests”

# BeijingBiden doesn ’ t have what it takes to lead this country through a crisis or stand up to @ @ @ @ @ has too many conflicts of interest ( like Hunter ’ s 1.5 billion dollar Chinese @ @ @ @ @ 's sad to watch , but Joe 's clearly in decline .
Xi would would @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/3RU3qLXB4C

#BeijingBiden doesn’t have what it takes to lead this country through a crisis or stand up to China.
1. He has too many conflicts of interest (like Hunter’s 1.5 billion dollar Chinese payout)
2. It's sad to watch, but Joe's clearly in decline. Xi would would walk all over him! pic.twitter.com/3RU3qLXB4C
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) May 7, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Odd, WH put up a 28 second video of President Trump Participates in a Meeting with Senior Military L

Odd, WH put up a 28 second video of President Trump Participates in a Meeting with Senior Military Leadership and National Security Team

Who this message is for depends on what you think they ’ re meeting about .

Who this message is for depends on what you think they’re meeting about.
Peculiar!
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h/t AO


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--The People are Rising Up – Journalists & Politicians Beware

A former respected journalist has come out quite angry and has called for the people to overthrow the Merkel government .
He states he is willing to go to prison but begs everyone for the sake of the country and their families to reject Merkel and her links to Bill Gates and is effectively calling for a non-violent Revolution .
He is not even offering a specific alternative .
Just to throw out the Merkel government .
This video has been going viral in Germany and a lot of people are getting really angry at this entire destruction of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Bill Gates .
This video has accused the press in Germany of just supporting whatever Bill Gates directs .
They have been compelled to come out and try to attack this video rather than reflect upon the coverage they have provided .
Our computer model warned that protest would start after week four .
However , violence would typically start to emerge after week six .
All around the globe we are starting to see protests and people refusing to comply with these lockdown orders which are clearly against international human rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmed cases with 7,510 deaths .
The total German population is about 83 million .
That is only about 0.00008 % .
You can fool some of the people some of the time , but this is beyond foolery .
The people are starting to wake up that they have been played for fools .
By mid-May , we would be looking at major protests lining up around the globe , particularly the week of May 18th .
The journalists who have supported Gates should really look at what they are doing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at risk if this erupts into massive civil unrest because they have aided the loss of jobs , savings , and homes .
Caesar – Beware the week of May 18th .

by Martin Armstrong
A former respected journalist has come out quite angry and has called for the people to overthrow the Merkel government. He states he is willing to go to prison but begs everyone for the sake of the country and their families to reject Merkel and her links to Bill Gates and is effectively calling for a non-violent Revolution. He is not even offering a specific alternative. Just to throw out the Merkel government.
This video has been going viral in Germany and a lot of people are getting really angry at this entire destruction of the world economy they see has been orchestrated by Bill Gates. This video has accused the press in Germany of just supporting whatever Bill Gates directs. They have been compelled to come out and try to attack this video rather than reflect upon the coverage they have provided.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Our computer model warned that protest would start after week four. However, violence would typically start to emerge after week six. All around the globe we are starting to see protests and people refusing to comply with these lockdown orders which are clearly against international human rights.
In Germany, there were 171,000 confirmed cases with 7,510 deaths. The total German population is about 83 million. That is only about 0.00008%. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but this is beyond foolery. The people are starting to wake up that they have been played for fools. By mid-May, we would be looking at major protests lining up around the globe, particularly the week of May 18th.
The journalists who have supported Gates should really look at what they are doing. They may be putting their own families at risk if this erupts into massive civil unrest because they have aided the loss of jobs, savings, and homes. Caesar – Beware the week of May 18th.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-10--Jim Sinclair – Debt Jubilees Everywhere. Simple Math says $50,000 to $87,500 Gold Price

Is a biblical debt jubilee coming to America ?
Sinclair says , “ We already have jubilees .
If you don ’ t pay your rent , you have a jubilee .
If you don ’ t pay your student loan , you have a jubilee .
If the payment of your auto insurance is postponed , you have a jubilee .
We ’ ve got jubilee after jubilee after jubilee .
Keep in mind , one man ’ s jubilee is another man ’ s disaster .
It ’ s almost as if the Bible is correct in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind , the people who aren ’ t being paid are being hurt very badly.
” Sinclair thinks the recovery will take a decade or longer , and Sinclair says , “ It will be just like the period between 1929 up to WWII ( 1941 ) .
” Sinclair also stands by prior predictions of an extremely high gold price in the next few years .
Sinclair says , “ The price on the low end is $ 50,000 per ounce .
The true price is $ 87,500 per ounce.
” Sound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his simple math for coming up with this price range for the yellow metal .

Is a biblical debt jubilee coming to America? Sinclair says, “We already have jubilees. If you don’t pay your rent, you have a jubilee. If you don’t pay your student loan, you have a jubilee. If the payment of your auto insurance is postponed, you have a jubilee. We’ve got jubilee after jubilee after jubilee. Keep in mind, one man’s jubilee is another man’s disaster. It’s almost as if the Bible is correct in terms of economics. Also, keep in mind, the people who aren’t being paid are being hurt very badly.”
Sinclair thinks the recovery will take a decade or longer, and Sinclair says, “It will be just like the period between 1929 up to WWII (1941).”
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Sinclair also stands by prior predictions of an extremely high gold price in the next few years. Sinclair says, “The price on the low end is $50,000 per ounce. The true price is $87,500 per ounce.” Sound outlandish? Not if you listen to his simple math for coming up with this price range for the yellow metal.