investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--“Capitalism” Is No Longer Attractive to Capitalists

This “ capitalism ” is only attractive to parasites , predators , kleptocrats , legalized looters , embezzlers , fraudsters and all those insiders whose palms get greased along the way .
Back of the envelope definition of classical capitalism : 1 .
Transparency in markets , including pricing , information on quality and reliability of products , sellers and buyers , and of rules of conduct and rights governing all participants ; 2 .
Risk is tightly bound to reward , i.e .
everyone has skin in the game , those who lose are forced to absorb the entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ i.e .
no monopolies or cartels limiting supply or setting prices ; 4 .
Everyone pays the same rates of taxes , duties and fees on every transaction .
Needless to say , what is presented as “ capitalism ” in America today is not actually capitalism ; it is monopoly-state-socialism for the wealthy , a kleptocracy incompetently cloaked by a rigged simulacrum market in which risk and losses are transferred to the debt-serfs and tax donkeys and the “ socialism for the rich and powerful ” is enforced by a pay-to-play simulacrum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Federal Reserve .
In this winner take most , anything goes if you ’ re rich casino , the weaker players are ruthlessly stripmined and exploited and those enterprises without political protection are cannibalized by rapacious , predatory monopolies and cartels .
Parasitic elites take a skim from every table : student loans over here , state junk fees over there ; everyone gets clipped by self-serving insiders and entrenched interests .
Transparency is an illusion .
Complexity thickets protect monopolies and cartels , and the fine print… try getting a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You must be joking . )
Sign the form for the $ 30 oil change and come back to an $ 800 bill for “ work you authorized.
” ( You didn ’ t read the fine print ?
Too bad . )
Quality has gone downhill across the board but there ’ s no recourse or competition .
All the items regardless of brand come from the same factory in China .
So what if your new oven turns on by itself randomly ( true story , happened to me ) ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is only one year , so tough luck , bucko , the repair bill for the defective $ 5 sensor will cost you as much as a new range .
In American “ capitalism , ” the name of the game is scale up with cheap debt supplied by the Federal Reserve , use the “ Fed free money ” to buy up any potential competitors and then start buying back your own shares , jacking your share price even as sales and profits stagnate .
( Charts of Apple below ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ fail or jail , then you can gamble to your heart ’ s content because all the winnings will be yours to keep and if you lose big , the Fed or the Treasury will step in and transfer the losses to the debt-serfs and tax donkeys .
In America , as Warren Buffett jacks up the price of Sees candy , etc .
to maximize his profits and add more billions to his net worth , and Amazon uses its quasi-monopoly power to relentlessly jack up the price of Prime membership , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t you have enough already ?
” The answer is “ no ” .
It ’ s never enough , because as long as the Fed and federal government enforce , enable or allow your monopoly , quasi-monopoly or cartel to kill transparency and competition , and offer you limitless “ Fed free money ” while students pay 8 % on their loans , then why not add another $ 10 billion to your personal wealth ?
Go ahead and lie , cheat , embezzle , rig markets , commit fraud , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a powerful corporation because all your execs have get out of jail free cards from the Department of Justice .
Nobody in Corporate America ever goes to prison no matter how egregious the fraud or theft .
And you get to keep all the loot , other than a wrist-slap fine if you ’ re caught .
But that ’ s just a modest cost of doing business in American “ capitalism.
” No Wrongdoing Here , Just 6,300 Corporate Fines and Settlements ( May 2015 ) If this “ capitalism ” was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone pile into the same six Big Tech monopolies ?
Is that really the only opportunity left to “ create shareholder value , ” to pour hundreds of billions of dollars in “ Fed free money ” into a handful of Big Tech monopolies ?
Paraphrasing the late Immanuel Wallerstein , “ Capitalism ” is no longer attractive to capitalists .
This “ capitalism ” is only attractive to parasites , predators , kleptocrats , legalized looters , embezzlers , fraudsters and all those insiders whose palms get greased along the way .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ s show is brought to you by the letter K ( leptrocracy ) If you think this “ capitalism ” is sustainable , the future holds a big surprise .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
This “capitalism” is only attractive to parasites, predators, kleptocrats, legalized looters, embezzlers, fraudsters and all those insiders whose palms get greased along the way.
Back of the envelope definition of classical capitalism:
1. Transparency in markets, including pricing, information on quality and reliability of products, sellers and buyers, and of rules of conduct and rights governing all participants;
2. Risk is tightly bound to reward, i.e. everyone has skin in the game, those who lose are forced to absorb the entire loss.
2. Open competition, i.e. no monopolies or cartels limiting supply or setting prices;
3. Free flow of capital and labor;
4. Everyone pays the same rates of taxes, duties and fees on every transaction.
Needless to say, what is presented as “capitalism” in America today is not actually capitalism; it is monopoly-state-socialism for the wealthy, a kleptocracy incompetently cloaked by a rigged simulacrum market in which risk and losses are transferred to the debt-serfs and tax donkeys and the “socialism for the rich and powerful” is enforced by a pay-to-play simulacrum democracy and kleptocratic, totalitarian central bank, the Federal Reserve.
In this winner take most, anything goes if you’re rich casino, the weaker players are ruthlessly stripmined and exploited and those enterprises without political protection are cannibalized by rapacious, predatory monopolies and cartels.
Parasitic elites take a skim from every table: student loans over here, state junk fees over there; everyone gets clipped by self-serving insiders and entrenched interests.
Transparency is an illusion. Complexity thickets protect monopolies and cartels, and the fine print… try getting a set price for healthcare services. (You must be joking.) Sign the form for the $30 oil change and come back to an $800 bill for “work you authorized.” (You didn’t read the fine print? Too bad.)
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Quality has gone downhill across the board but there’s no recourse or competition. All the items regardless of brand come from the same factory in China. So what if your new oven turns on by itself randomly (true story, happened to me); the once-proud American brand’s warranty is only one year, so tough luck, bucko, the repair bill for the defective $5 sensor will cost you as much as a new range.
In American “capitalism,” the name of the game is scale up with cheap debt supplied by the Federal Reserve, use the “Fed free money” to buy up any potential competitors and then start buying back your own shares, jacking your share price even as sales and profits stagnate. (Charts of Apple below).
Once you’re too big to fail or jail, then you can gamble to your heart’s content because all the winnings will be yours to keep and if you lose big, the Fed or the Treasury will step in and transfer the losses to the debt-serfs and tax donkeys.
In America, as Warren Buffett jacks up the price of Sees candy, etc. to maximize his profits and add more billions to his net worth, and Amazon uses its quasi-monopoly power to relentlessly jack up the price of Prime membership, nobody asks Warren or Jeff “don’t you have enough already?”
The answer is “no”. It’s never enough, because as long as the Fed and federal government enforce, enable or allow your monopoly, quasi-monopoly or cartel to kill transparency and competition, and offer you limitless “Fed free money” while students pay 8% on their loans, then why not add another $10 billion to your personal wealth?
Go ahead and lie, cheat, embezzle, rig markets, commit fraud, collude–everything is allowed if you’re a powerful corporation because all your execs have get out of jail free cards from the Department of Justice. Nobody in Corporate America ever goes to prison no matter how egregious the fraud or theft. And you get to keep all the loot, other than a wrist-slap fine if you’re caught. But that’s just a modest cost of doing business in American “capitalism.”
No Wrongdoing Here, Just 6,300 Corporate Fines and Settlements (May 2015)
If this “capitalism” was actually attractive to capitalists, why would everyone pile into the same six Big Tech monopolies? Is that really the only opportunity left to “create shareholder value,” to pour hundreds of billions of dollars in “Fed free money” into a handful of Big Tech monopolies?
Paraphrasing the late Immanuel Wallerstein, “Capitalism” is no longer attractive to capitalists. This “capitalism” is only attractive to parasites, predators, kleptocrats, legalized looters, embezzlers, fraudsters and all those insiders whose palms get greased along the way.
AxisofEasy Salon #28: Today’s show is brought to you by the letter K(leptrocracy)
If you think this “capitalism” is sustainable, the future holds a big surprise.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--What’s Next for Asia’s Two Recent Stock Market Leaders?

Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan have been outperforming their regional counterparts .
See our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update editor @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s next for both , with an eye on the U.S. dollar .

Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan have been outperforming their regional counterparts. See our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update editor give you a glimpse of what’s next for both, with an eye on the U.S. dollar.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--NYC mayorde Blasio Ready to lock the city down if infection rate gets to 2%, and its at 1.92%

“ This is the first time the number has taken a meaningful jump , to 1.92 % , ” de @ @ @ @ @ conference .
“ That alone is not a number that would overwhelm us , but @ @ @ @ @ me and we can not allow that number to keep growing .
”

“This is the first time the number has taken a meaningful jump, to 1.92%,” de Blasio said at a press conference. “That alone is not a number that would overwhelm us, but the growth is what worries me and we cannot allow that number to keep growing.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--NANCY PELOSI today: “I feel very confident that Joe Biden will be elected president on Tuesday.. wha

NANCY PELOSI today: “I feel very confident that Joe Biden will be elected president on Tuesday.. whatever the end count is..”

Whatever the end count is ?
Are they not just spelling it out for us ?
?
So soon we @ @

Whatever the end count is?
Are they not just spelling it out for us??
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So soon we forget.
h/t Pegamoose


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--France Just Went Into Martial Law, 7000 Additional Troops to be deployed!

BREAKING – France to mobilize up to 7,000 additional troops for Operation Sentinel , a military unit protecting sensitive `` @ @ @ @ @ territory from terrorism , after the Nice attack .
Under the French lockdown , people @ @ @ @ @ move around .
( CNN ) Two of Europe ’ s biggest economies have announced @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus case numbers .
France will begin a four-week lockdown on Friday , French President @ @ @ @ @ His declaration came just hours after German Chancellor Angela Merkel also announced a four-week nationwide @ @ @ @ @ Macron announced the French measures in a televised address on Wednesday evening , saying existing @ @ @ @ @ anymore.
” By mid-November , all intensive care beds could be taken by Covid-19 patients @ @ @ @ @ is put on the virus , he warned .

BREAKING – France to mobilize up to 7,000 additional troops for Operation Sentinel, a military unit protecting sensitive "points" on the French territory from terrorism, after the Nice attack.
Under the French lockdown, people will need a certificate to move around.
(CNN)Two of Europe’s biggest economies have announced lockdowns in response to spiraling coronavirus case numbers.
France will begin a four-week lockdown on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday.
His declaration came just hours after German Chancellor Angela Merkel also announced a four-week nationwide lockdown starting next Monday.
Macron announced the French measures in a televised address on Wednesday evening, saying existing restrictions were “not enough anymore.” By mid-November, all intensive care beds could be taken by Covid-19 patients unless a “brake” is put on the virus, he warned.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Businesses are boarding up windows and pulling guns off the shelves in anticipation of widespread el

Businesses are boarding up windows and pulling guns off the shelves in anticipation of widespread election unrest

A storm is coming in , and soon it will envelop the entire nation .
We are accustomed to seeing businesses board up their doors and windows in coastal cities that are about to get hit by a hurricane , but I can ’ t think of another time when businesses all across America have been boarding up their doors and windows all at the same time .
There is widespread fear that this election could be the spark that sets off another round of horrifying civil unrest in cities all over the United States , and business owners are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the violence .
The fact that we are even talking about the possibility of widespread violence after a presidential election shows just how much our country has fallen already .
Our society is literally coming apart at the seams all around us , and at this point even Forbes is urging everyone to prepare for a worst case scenario… That paragraph was not pulled from some ridiculous tabloid .
This is Forbes that we are talking about , and it is crazy that even they are warning that there could be “ a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unrest after the election ” .
How in the world is it possible that we have sunk so low ?
Violence is not going to solve anything .
It boggles my mind that so many Americans would be willing to engage in senseless violence , and we should all be grieved by what has been happening in the streets of Philadelphia over the past few nights .
Many desperate business owners are extremely concerned that their businesses could be vandalized and looted in the aftermath of the upcoming election , and they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to prevent that from happening .
For example , here is what has been happening in downtown Washington… And at this point large portions of downtown Chicago are boarded up as well… If I owned a business in a core urban area , I would undoubtedly be doing the exact same thing .
When things get crazy , the looters are going to follow the path of least resistance , and they are going to prey on easy targets .
Just look at what looters just did to a Walmart in Philadelphia .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the core .
On Thursday , we learned that Walmart has decided to pull all guns and ammunition from the sales floors of all their stores nationwide due to concerns that the upcoming election could spark even more civil unrest… There is still a small chance that there could be some sort of a landslide that would bring a quick end to the presidential race , but that does not seem likely .
Instead , it appears that the election results could be bitterly contested , and law enforcement authorities in some states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , Texas Governor Greg Abbott has announced that he will be deploying National Guard troops to cities all over Texas prior to Election Day… In Texas , National Guard troops are expected to be sent to Austin , Dallas , Fort Worth , Houston and San Antonio before Election Day .
During a Wednesday news conference , Texas Governor Greg Abbott said during a Wednesday event that the Texas National Guard were being deployed “ in the event that there are any protests after the elections are concluded , that we will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure that we will be able to address any protest that could turn into riots.
” Abbott declined to reveal the number of troops being sent throughout the state .
I wish that more governors were taking similar steps , but a lot of politicians in blue states don ’ t seem particularly eager to crack down on rioters , and that is extremely unfortunate .
Because the truth is that most Americans can see what is coming and they are extremely concerned about what may happen .
According to one recent survey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is “ worried about possible violence ” … Personally , I am still hoping that a way can be found to minimize the unrest and that we can get through this election with as little violence as possible .
But sticking our heads in the sand isn ’ t going to do any good .
There have been endless riots since the tragic death of George Floyd earlier this year , and this election has the potential to spark chaos that is unlike anything that we have seen so far .
Hopefully the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible and the vast majority of Americans will be willing to peacefully accept the results .
But the closer that we get to Election Day the less likely that outcome appears to be , and at this point many of us are bracing for the worst .

by Michael Snyder
A storm is coming in, and soon it will envelop the entire nation. We are accustomed to seeing businesses board up their doors and windows in coastal cities that are about to get hit by a hurricane, but I can’t think of another time when businesses all across America have been boarding up their doors and windows all at the same time. There is widespread fear that this election could be the spark that sets off another round of horrifying civil unrest in cities all over the United States, and business owners are taking measures to protect their businesses from the violence. The fact that we are even talking about the possibility of widespread violence after a presidential election shows just how much our country has fallen already. Our society is literally coming apart at the seams all around us, and at this point even Forbes is urging everyone to prepare for a worst case scenario…
If we don’t have a clear winner, things could get ugly. Since we’ve witnessed months of mayhem, riots and civil unrest in large U.S. cities, it’s reasonable to conclude that we’ll have a frightening level of violence, destruction and unrest after the election. Both sides may claim victory, which could lead to actions that we don’t want to even consider, as it would rip apart the country.
That paragraph was not pulled from some ridiculous tabloid. This is Forbes that we are talking about, and it is crazy that even they are warning that there could be “a frightening level of violence, destruction and unrest after the election”.
How in the world is it possible that we have sunk so low?
Violence is not going to solve anything. It boggles my mind that so many Americans would be willing to engage in senseless violence, and we should all be grieved by what has been happening in the streets of Philadelphia over the past few nights.
Many desperate business owners are extremely concerned that their businesses could be vandalized and looted in the aftermath of the upcoming election, and they have been boarding up their storefronts to try to prevent that from happening. For example, here is what has been happening in downtown Washington…
Large swaths of downtown Washington, within blocks of the White House, resembled a coastal community girding for a powerful hurricane. Hotels, office buildings, coffee shops and restaurants were sheathed in plywood, with some of the makeshift barriers stretching nearly entire blocks.
And at this point large portions of downtown Chicago are boarded up as well…
Restaurants and luxury retailers are operating through windows covered in plywood or other barriers, and shoppers pass through entryway cut-outs. City officials have been holding workshops in recent months to prepare for possible civil unrest after Election Day.
If I owned a business in a core urban area, I would undoubtedly be doing the exact same thing.
When things get crazy, the looters are going to follow the path of least resistance, and they are going to prey on easy targets.
Just look at what looters just did to a Walmart in Philadelphia. Watching that footage should chill you to the core.
On Thursday, we learned that Walmart has decided to pull all guns and ammunition from the sales floors of all their stores nationwide due to concerns that the upcoming election could spark even more civil unrest…
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“We have seen some isolated civil unrest and as we have done on several occasions over the last few years, we have moved our firearms and ammunition off the sales floor as a precaution,” Walmart said in a statement.
There is still a small chance that there could be some sort of a landslide that would bring a quick end to the presidential race, but that does not seem likely.
Instead, it appears that the election results could be bitterly contested, and law enforcement authorities in some states are preparing for the worst.
For instance, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has announced that he will be deploying National Guard troops to cities all over Texas prior to Election Day…
In Texas, National Guard troops are expected to be sent to Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio before Election Day. During a Wednesday news conference, Texas Governor Greg Abbott said during a Wednesday event that the Texas National Guard were being deployed “in the event that there are any protests after the elections are concluded, that we will have adequate personnel in place to make sure that we will be able to address any protest that could turn into riots.” Abbott declined to reveal the number of troops being sent throughout the state.
I wish that more governors were taking similar steps, but a lot of politicians in blue states don’t seem particularly eager to crack down on rioters, and that is extremely unfortunate.
Because the truth is that most Americans can see what is coming and they are extremely concerned about what may happen. According to one recent survey, three out of every four voters is “worried about possible violence”…
Across the country, Americans are increasingly worried about the possibility of violence over the high-stakes presidential election, which analysts say could be marred in chaos as an anxious country waits days or weeks for the results. Three of 4 voters say they’re worried about possible violence, while only 1 in 4 say they’re “very confident” the country will see a peaceful transfer of power if Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden defeats President Donald Trump, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds.
Personally, I am still hoping that a way can be found to minimize the unrest and that we can get through this election with as little violence as possible.
But sticking our heads in the sand isn’t going to do any good. There have been endless riots since the tragic death of George Floyd earlier this year, and this election has the potential to spark chaos that is unlike anything that we have seen so far.
Hopefully it won’t happen.
Hopefully the votes will be counted as quickly as possible and the vast majority of Americans will be willing to peacefully accept the results.
But the closer that we get to Election Day the less likely that outcome appears to be, and at this point many of us are bracing for the worst.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Daniel Lacalle: New Lockdowns In Europe Will Devastate The Economy

Daniel Lacalle , PhD , economist and fund manager , is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality @ @ @ @ @ from the Central Bank Trap ( 2017 ) .
He is a professor of global @ @ @ @ @ in Madrid and Chief Economist at Tressis SV .
Ranked as one of the top @ @ @ @ @ the world in 2016 and 2017 by Richtopia , he holds the CIIA financial analyst @ @ @ @ @ degree in higher business studies and a master ’ s degree in economic investigation .
@ @ @ @ @ the advisory board of the Rafael del Pino Foundation and Commissioner of the Community of @ @ @ @

CNBC, Released on 10/29/20
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Daniel Lacalle, PhD, economist and fund manager, is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality (2020) and Escape from the Central Bank Trap (2017). He is a professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid and Chief Economist at Tressis SV. Ranked as one of the top twenty most influential economists in the world in 2016 and 2017 by Richtopia, he holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a postgraduate degree in higher business studies and a master’s degree in economic investigation. He is a member of the advisory board of the Rafael del Pino Foundation and Commissioner of the Community of Madrid in London.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Jim Bianco takes a closer look at the economic impact of COVID-19

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research , L.L.C .
Since 1990 Jim ’ s commentaries have @ @ @ @ @ the global economy and financial markets .
Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ a decades long reputation for objective , incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking .
In @ @ @ @ @ Research , Jim ’ s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy , the intersection @ @ @ @ @ the role of government in the economy , fund flows and positioning in financial markets @ @ @ @ @ and Bianco Research , Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research @ @ @ @ @ Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers .
He is a Chartered Market @ @ @ @ @ a member of the Market Technicians Association ( MTA ) .
Jim has a Bachelor @ @ @ @ @ from Marquette University ( 1984 ) and an MBA from Fordham University ( 1989 ) @

WGNTV, Released on 10/28/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--The stock market is now a derivative of the options market

The stock market is now a derivative of the options market pic.twitter.com/XGBZFv8Z5p
— Christopher Cole (@vol_christopher) October 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Why the market is dumping tomorrow

Why the market is dumping tomorrow

Let me start by saying I ’ m usually a bull , but this dump is undeniable .
Let me give you some reasons .
1 ) Election next week , even more people are going to get out of the market on top of the usual Friday sell off to hedge against weekend uncertainty 2 ) Big tech can beat earnings tonight and still flat line or drop .
Look at all these companies this week that beat earnings and fell .
There is bound to be big tech that does the same .
For the unaware , big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the SPY and QQQ , so if big tech does bad , the market does bad .
3 ) Corona virus uncertainty .
Lockdowns are happening around the world and cases keep spiking 4 ) Stimulus is officially dead .
No more stimmy hype to keep the market alive .
My guess is we ’ re moving into the vaccine hype phase .
Why are we up right now then ?
Retail boomers have bought the dip because Cramer said to if youre long .
Investors are optimistic that big tech will rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who do not want to hold during the election have not sold off yet .
TLDR : Election sell off , big tech tanking , corona uncertainty , and dead stimulus are all going to tank the market starting at 4:01 PM Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by FreeIcecreamAfterDin
Let me start by saying I’m usually a bull, but this dump is undeniable. Let me give you some reasons.
1) Election next week, even more people are going to get out of the market on top of the usual Friday sell off to hedge against weekend uncertainty
2) Big tech can beat earnings tonight and still flat line or drop. Look at all these companies this week that beat earnings and fell. There is bound to be big tech that does the same. For the unaware, big tech makes up top holdings in both the SPY and QQQ, so if big tech does bad, the market does bad.
3) Corona virus uncertainty. Lockdowns are happening around the world and cases keep spiking
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4) Stimulus is officially dead. No more stimmy hype to keep the market alive. My guess is we’re moving into the vaccine hype phase.
Why are we up right now then?
Retail boomers have bought the dip because Cramer said to if youre long. Investors are optimistic that big tech will rally because of their ERs. The investors who do not want to hold during the election have not sold off yet.
TLDR: Election sell off, big tech tanking, corona uncertainty, and dead stimulus are all going to tank the market starting at 4:01 PM
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--10 Reasons Why the Stock Market Bubble in Tech Stocks Is Over: David Einhorn

Do you agree with Einhorn and think the bubble has popped ?
Or stocks will go higher ?

Do you agree with Einhorn and think the bubble has popped? Or stocks will go higher?
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Americans Are Panic Buying Lots Of Food As Difficult Times Approaching

Food-stockpiling tendencies are on the rise , with a pantry surge of up to 3,400 % .
Many Americans already started to stock food for the winter , fearing the occurrence of shortages just as seen earlier this year .
However , food prices are fast increasing , and not everybody will have access to food products .
The U.S. is about to experience a hunger calamity , and over 54 million people could potentially face hunger by the end of the year .
In this video , we investigate this very worrying matter and reflect upon the damaging effects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country .
Back in March , American consumers started to panic-buy shelf-stable meals and cleaning products , leaving store shelves empty , and unconsciously contributing to supply shortages .
Now , grocery store owners have affirmed they have been preparing for a second surge in the stockpiling trend , but now that massive purchases already started , they seem unsure about having enough to attend the demand .
On the other hand , local production has been compromised by several natural disasters throughout the year and also big manufacturers ’ orders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their animals due to contractual obligations .
For its part , store supply in smaller cities or distant rural areas couldn ’ t afford to prepare in advance , considering many of them were never fully restocked since the first round of supply shortages .
Even though some companies are insisting that they are better prepared than before , shortages persist in many places .
The real struggle for food companies is not only to rebuild the inventories that were depleted at the beginning of the year but keep it properly restocked throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to still have sufficient available items after the holiday season is over .
Many companies revealed they don ’ t expect its inventories to get back to normal levels until next year , considering consumers are still hoarding as much food as they can , which adds extra pressure on companies across the industry .
However , when demand is high and the offer is low , prices tend to soar .
In other words , in the face of mass unemployment and the absence of further stimulus packages , those who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have it at their stockpiles , but those who don ’ t are likely to cope with food insecurity .
Furthermore , a survey by Feeding America found that over 54 million Americans are likely to face hunger by December , which puts the country in the worst hunger calamity in history .
Worldwide , an additional 100 million people or more could also be facing starvation this year .
Analysts point that we ’ re in the midst of a health crisis ; we ’ re in the midst of an economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of a social justice crisis , particularly here in the United States , and I think we ’ re in the midst of a leadership crisis , as well .
By the end of August , the federal aid wore off and families had to deal with empty cupboards again as viral cases increased in the Midwest .
Rising crop and livestock prices echoed into grocery stores .
The cost of bread climbed almost 20 % in June , while meat jumped 17 % .
While government officials are still battling over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ households are falling into poverty .
In short , despite some food manufacturers and grocery chains have been bolstering efforts to support the demand and avoid supply shortages , increasing prices and the deteriorating conditions of the labor market will continue to boost food insecurity to unprecedented levels .

Food-stockpiling tendencies are on the rise, with a pantry surge of up to 3,400%. Many Americans already started to stock food for the winter, fearing the occurrence of shortages just as seen earlier this year. However, food prices are fast increasing, and not everybody will have access to food products.
The U.S. is about to experience a hunger calamity, and over 54 million people could potentially face hunger by the end of the year. In this video, we investigate this very worrying matter and reflect upon the damaging effects it will pose to millions of households across the country.
Back in March, American consumers started to panic-buy shelf-stable meals and cleaning products, leaving store shelves empty, and unconsciously contributing to supply shortages. Now, grocery store owners have affirmed they have been preparing for a second surge in the stockpiling trend, but now that massive purchases already started, they seem unsure about having enough to attend the demand.
On the other hand, local production has been compromised by several natural disasters throughout the year and also big manufacturers’ orders for farmers to dump production and slaughter their animals due to contractual obligations. For its part, store supply in smaller cities or distant rural areas couldn’t afford to prepare in advance, considering many of them were never fully restocked since the first round of supply shortages.
Even though some companies are insisting that they are better prepared than before, shortages persist in many places. The real struggle for food companies is not only to rebuild the inventories that were depleted at the beginning of the year but keep it properly restocked throughout the coming winter, and most importantly, to still have sufficient available items after the holiday season is over.
Many companies revealed they don’t expect its inventories to get back to normal levels until next year, considering consumers are still hoarding as much food as they can, which adds extra pressure on companies across the industry.
However, when demand is high and the offer is low, prices tend to soar. In other words, in the face of mass unemployment and the absence of further stimulus packages, those who still have a source of income will have it at their stockpiles, but those who don’t are likely to cope with food insecurity.
Furthermore, a survey by Feeding America found that over 54 million Americans are likely to face hunger by December, which puts the country in the worst hunger calamity in history. Worldwide, an additional 100 million people or more could also be facing starvation this year. Analysts point that we’re in the midst of a health crisis; we’re in the midst of an economic crisis; we’re in the midst of a social justice crisis, particularly here in the United States, and I think we’re in the midst of a leadership crisis, as well.
By the end of August, the federal aid wore off and families had to deal with empty cupboards again as viral cases increased in the Midwest. Rising crop and livestock prices echoed into grocery stores. The cost of bread climbed almost 20% in June, while meat jumped 17%.
While government officials are still battling over the issuance of additional stimulus, more households are falling into poverty. In short, despite some food manufacturers and grocery chains have been bolstering efforts to support the demand and avoid supply shortages, increasing prices and the deteriorating conditions of the labor market will continue to boost food insecurity to unprecedented levels.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--CNN FORCED to Report on How Pennsylvania Voters REALLY Feel about Joe Biden

Leah Barkoukis from Townhall reports , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ’ s pledge to “ transition away from the @ @ @ @ @ final presidential debate was one of the best gifts he could ’ ve given to @ @ @ @ @ .

Leah Barkoukis from Townhall reports, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s pledge to “transition away from the oil industry” at the final presidential debate was one of the best gifts he could’ve given to Republicans ahead of the election.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbar…


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Dollar System is Failing as Fed Balance Sheet Hits Record High! QE Can’t Fix Economy

Investors have been buying tech stocks in 2020 .
We have seen more debt being used .
Stimulus has been @ @ @ @ @ There has been more interest in equities , stocks , ETF ’ s .

Investors have been buying tech stocks in 2020. We have seen more debt being used. Stimulus has been going into Robinhood accounts. There has been more interest in equities, stocks, ETF’s.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-31--IMPORTANT: The email from a Ukrainian oil exec thanking Hunter Biden for introducing him to Joe Bide

IMPORTANT: The email from a Ukrainian oil exec thanking Hunter Biden for introducing him to Joe Biden has been cryptographically verified. It’s 100% real.

This means Joe Biden lied and was engaged in pay-for-play , laundering bribe money through his son Hunter .
Here is the text of the email and the DKIM signature : Dear Hunter , thank you for inviting me to DC and giving an opportunity to meet your father and spent some time together .
It ’ s realty an honor and pleasure .
As we spoke yesterday evening , would be great to meet today for a quick coffee .
What do you think ?
I could come to you office somewhere around noon or so , before or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is gmail.com ’ s public domain key from that time : github.com/robertdavidgraham/hunter-dkim/blob/main/20120113._domainkey.gmail.com.-TXT.txt Here is the proof that the DKIM in the email was signed by gmail ’ s public domain key : github.com/robertdavidgraham/hunter-dkim/blob/main/verify.py What does this mean ?
It means an email of exactly the text above ( it can not be altered ) was sent by Pozharskyi to Hunter Biden on Friday the 17th of April , 2015 .
We need to get the other emails on that laptop so we can verify their validity , but this one was real .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy executives in the Ukraine while being paid by these executives when Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States .
Edit : I see this post has been overrun by shills with 1000+ fake upvotes in several cases .
Here are rebuttals to the two biggest LIES they are spreading in the comments .
1 ) For the lying shills claiming the sending email isn ’ t really from a Burisma advisor , well , yes it is ( see the link ) .
Do you really think Pozharskyi is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ account ?
Here is the link : blog.intelx.io/2020/10/14/an-osint-investigation-into-the-alleged-hunter-biden-email/ 2 ) For the other lying shills claiming DKIM doesn ’ t verify the content of the email , shocker… you are LYING .
YES IT DOES .
Here are the fields verified by DKIM , which include the body of the email .
Let ’ s take this piece by piece to see what it means .
Each “ tag ” is associated with a value .
• b = the actual digital signature of the contents ( headers and body ) of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ algorithm ( s ) for header and body • l = the length of the canonicalized part of the body that has been signed • h = the list of signed header fields , repeated for fields that occur multiple times The sender is Pozharskyi .
The receiver is Hunter at his shady hedge fund .
The text of the message is exactly what was written above .
The DKIM signature timestamp was 4/17/15 .
That can ’ t be spoofed .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by some_crypto_guy
This means Joe Biden lied and was engaged in pay-for-play, laundering bribe money through his son Hunter.
Here is the text of the email and the DKIM signature:
Dear Hunter, thank you for inviting me to DC and giving an opportunity to meet your father and spent some time together. It’s realty an honor and pleasure. As we spoke yesterday evening, would be great to meet today for a quick coffee. What do you think? I could come to you office somewhere around noon or so, before or on my way to airport.
DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113; h=subject:from:content-type:message-id:date:to :content-transfer-encoding:mime-version; bh=qvd5eZXIuO2am5ruCy65Cf0oMUDw5yH1oIzGIvkKR6o=; b=nVOYlVwfqI005CVJSavtgmiRLc7MYOl9BufzcR57Kq51GkUvTH2lexygTgg3KZ6AQL azJI1CBkVupLLwShtDPBrPEHeb9iPJ/IavoCqcBVfZzdk5/11SDK4ye5lAyYmAzDrNqG Wh6ljXlbyOQGvQQc3pJoc+TDUmymF+P1wNw6gHaD+CCufI2w3eDwooVKrEyJMLMA8eKa IONIYgje1h2Qr1F17WlL93T0tZTLn0/CyEtAat71cJuXuAV9lH51mtsTPN8KIQXIULQ5 Do7dKGBNUGGjX4SZffSIog6J1aOJE05qvt3ZfuhhqR2jbq7EmNOb8/4tR069BQrYgDQr AmHA==
Here is gmail.com’s public domain key from that time: github.com/robertdavidgraham/hunter-dkim/blob/main/20120113._domainkey.gmail.com.-TXT.txt
Here is the proof that the DKIM in the email was signed by gmail’s public domain key: github.com/robertdavidgraham/hunter-dkim/blob/main/verify.py
What does this mean?
It means an email of exactly the text above (it cannot be altered) was sent by Pozharskyi to Hunter Biden on Friday the 17th of April , 2015.
We need to get the other emails on that laptop so we can verify their validity, but this one was real.
It appears that Hunter introduced Joe to energy executives in the Ukraine while being paid by these executives when Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States.
That’s called pay-for-play. It’s corrupt.
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Edit: I see this post has been overrun by shills with 1000+ fake upvotes in several cases. Here are rebuttals to the two biggest LIES they are spreading in the comments.
1) For the lying shills claiming the sending email isn’t really from a Burisma advisor, well, yes it is (see the link). Do you really think Pozharskyi is going to commit fraud with his work email account? Here is the link: blog.intelx.io/2020/10/14/an-osint-investigation-into-the-alleged-hunter-biden-email/
The TLDR:
Therefore, it is accurate to historically associate Vadym Pozharskyi as a member of Burisma Holdings with the email address, v.pozharskyi.ukraine…
2) For the other lying shills claiming DKIM doesn’t verify the content of the email, shocker… you are LYING. YES IT DOES.
Here are the fields verified by DKIM, which include the body of the email.
DKIM-Signature a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; d=example.com; i=user@eng.example.com; s=jun2005.eng; c=relaxed/simple; t=1117574938; x=1118006938; h=from:to:subject:date; b=dzdVyOfAKCdLXdJOc9G2q8LoXSlEniSb av+yuU4zGeeruD00lszZVoG4ZHRNiYzR
Let’s take this piece by piece to see what it means. Each “tag” is associated with a value.
b = the actual digital signature of the contents (headers and body) of the mail message
bh = the body hash
d = the signing domain
s = the selector
v = the version
a = the signing algorithm
c = the canonicalization algorithm(s) for header and body
q = the default query method
l = the length of the canonicalized part of the body that has been signed
t = the signature timestamp
x = the expire time
h = the list of signed header fields, repeated for fields that occur multiple times
The sender is Pozharskyi. The receiver is Hunter at his shady hedge fund. The text of the message is exactly what was written above. The DKIM signature timestamp was 4/17/15. That can’t be spoofed.
Joe Biden just got caught.
Stop misleading people.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-31--Soldiers Now Deployed In Philly!

Soldiers Now Deployed In Philly!

This manufactured crisis just normalized military on the streets of the US… In fact , people have been calling for @ @ @ @ @ the streets… Something most Americans would have never done just a few months ago…

This manufactured crisis just normalized military on the streets of the US…
In fact, people have been calling for the military to be on the streets…
Something most Americans would have never done just a few months ago…
— Spiro (@o_rips) October 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-31--Bernie Sanders Largest Supporter has now endorsed and voted for President Trump!

HA Goodman , An Author for both the Huff Post and Washington post has now officially endorsed and voted for

HA Goodman, An Author for both the Huff Post and
Washington post has now officially endorsed and voted for
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Donald J. Trump over Joe Biden and Camel Toe Harris.
h/t Jake


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-31--NWO Great Reset Agenda Now In Full Swing – Mainstream Media Pushing Universal Basic Income As A COVI

NWO Great Reset Agenda Now In Full Swing – Mainstream Media Pushing Universal Basic Income As A COVID “solution”!

Universal Basic Income is one of the most divisive economic theories of the 21st century but since the coronavirus pandemic @ @ @ @ @ .
As the furlough scheme ends , we ask if a basic income could actually @ @ @ @ @ # coronavirus crisis .

Universal Basic Income is one of the most divisive economic theories of the 21st century but since the coronavirus pandemic it has gained fresh support.
As the furlough scheme ends, we ask if a basic income could actually help people get through the #coronavirus crisis.
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) October 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--A Once In A Decade Crash

A Once In A Decade Crash

The stock market is very erratic .
One day it ignores bad news and the next day it treats it like the end of the world .
This can make you think you are crazy .
For example , COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been rising for a few weeks .
The stock market ignored that until it didn ’ t .
It panicked on Wednesday even though we already knew COVID-19 was getting worse for weeks .
We have also known for a couple weeks that a stimulus isn ’ t coming , for now at least .
When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago it seemed like the market was fine with a stimulus coming in early 2021 .
Now , it can ’ t wait .
We have known for a couple weeks that Pfizer ’ s vaccine results would be released in mid to late November .
Now , all of a sudden , the market is very scared we have no data .
Somehow no data is a bad sign .
Two of the phase 3 trials restarted in America last week .
Did anyone expect them to tell us anything major by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has decided it has no patience even though policymakers have warned for months that this winter could be bad for COVID-19 .
Investors have fear ; nothing sounds good to them for now .
As you can see from the chart above , 24.1 % less small businesses are open now as compared to January .
This data point hasn ’ t moved for weeks .
Let ’ s not pretend the economy is in dramatically different shape now as compared to September .
On the other hand , you can argue , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much worse than October .
Current conditions in the Consumer Confidence index rose from 98.9 to 104.6 and earnings season has gone very well .
However , the market has decided any good news doesn ’ t matter because we are about to go off a cliff next month .
It is extending the spike in hospitalizations to infinity and ignoring the possibility a vaccine prevents this winter from being a disaster .
You might say we are being overly dramatic about how the market is reacting because the S & P 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ October peak and 8.7 % from its record .
That ’ s true , but look at the cyclical stocks .
Many big cap energy stocks have made new lows .
They are doing worse than in March .
The market has quickly changed from being optimistic to pessimistic about a recovery .
The oil services ETF ( OIH ) fell 13.2 % from its October high and is down 66 % year to date .
Energy is historically a very volatile sector , but this is undoubtedly in the record books as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Because it is worse than any other energy decline , we need to compare this to the worst sector declines in the past 30 years .
The chart above shows the drawdown in the tech sector in the early 2000s and the financial sector in the late 2000s after the housing crisis .
The current energy weakness is nearly as bad as those two were .
You can say this is the once in a decade crash in one of the S & P sectors .
This could be the buying opportunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tech were after their crashes .
Remember , prior to the financial crisis , in 2007 and 2008 energy outperformed remarkably .
This is its turn to crash .
Energy crashed from 2014 to 2016 , but that wasn ’ t enough .
It ’ s back to falling again .
Eventually , low prices become the cure for low prices because projects get canceled and scarcity sets the price .
The idea that the oil market is suddenly going to be in balance , when the economy reopens , without the 13 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ludicrous .
This is a cyclical decline .
There isn ’ t enough green energy to make up for the lost energy , meaning it ’ s not a secular decline .
The housing market continues to stay hot .
Prices are starting to spike .
Such high price growth might limit demand especially if rates rise .
Luckily for housing , rates are falling as investors fear an economic slowdown .
The August FHFA home price index showed yearly growth rose from 6.5 % to 8 % as the chart below shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unsustainable as it is the highest since March 2006 .
Peak growth in the 2000s housing bubble was 10.7 % .
Unless we have a scenario with very easy comps , such growth won ’ t be repeated .
The MBA applications index also was strong .
In the week of October 23rd , the composite index was up 1.7 % weekly which followed a 0.6 % decline .
Refinancing was up 3 % weekly after increasing 0.2 % .
The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate was 2.8 % last week which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were up 0.2 % weekly after falling 2 % .
Yearly growth was 24 % .
We have seen double digit yearly growth for 23 straight weeks .
It ’ s not that hard to see why banks could make a good investment because loan losses are limited , they are well capitalized , mortgage lending is strong , and deposit growth is strong .
The banks just need the economy to keep recovering and long yields to rise a bit to help their interest rate spread .
Even though the banks aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the financial crisis , they are very cheap .
As you can see from the chart below , the median price to tangible book value of all publicly traded banks is lower than the trough after the financial crisis .
The banks are the cheapest since the worst part of the savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s .
Investors decided to fear the same things they were ignoring two weeks ago .
COVID-19 was spiking in the Midwest and France when the market was near its record .
Now it suddenly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the recovery has been gradually slowing for a while .
It seemed like 2 weeks ago the market was fine with waiting for a vaccine in November and a stimulus in January , but now it wants help sooner .
The energy sector is in one of the worst bear markets any sector has experienced in the past 30 years .
It is nearly as bad as the financial sector after the housing bubble and tech after the dot com bust .
Banks are the cheapest since the 1989 SNL crisis .

by UPFINA
The stock market is very erratic. One day it ignores bad news and the next day it treats it like the end of the world. This can make you think you are crazy. For example, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been rising for a few weeks. The stock market ignored that until it didn’t. It panicked on Wednesday even though we already knew COVID-19 was getting worse for weeks. We have also known for a couple weeks that a stimulus isn’t coming, for now at least.
When stocks were riding high a couple weeks ago it seemed like the market was fine with a stimulus coming in early 2021. Now, it can’t wait. We have known for a couple weeks that Pfizer’s vaccine results would be released in mid to late November. Now, all of a sudden, the market is very scared we have no data. Somehow no data is a bad sign. Two of the phase 3 trials restarted in America last week. Did anyone expect them to tell us anything major by the end of October? The market has decided it has no patience even though policymakers have warned for months that this winter could be bad for COVID-19.
The number of #SmallBusiness open has fallen by 24% because of the #COVID19 crisis. The flat line over the past 3 months points to scarring risks as we head into the winter… > Leisure and hospitality is down 37% via @OppInsights @LizAnnSonders @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/op2rToIA61 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) October 27, 2020
Investors have fear; nothing sounds good to them for now. As you can see from the chart above, 24.1% less small businesses are open now as compared to January. This data point hasn’t moved for weeks. Let’s not pretend the economy is in dramatically different shape now as compared to September. On the other hand, you can argue, the market thinks COVID-19 will make November much worse than October.
Current conditions in the Consumer Confidence index rose from 98.9 to 104.6 and earnings season has gone very well. However, the market has decided any good news doesn’t matter because we are about to go off a cliff next month. It is extending the spike in hospitalizations to infinity and ignoring the possibility a vaccine prevents this winter from being a disaster.
Energy Is This Decade’s Loser
You might say we are being overly dramatic about how the market is reacting because the S&P 500 is only down 7.5% from its October peak and 8.7% from its record. That’s true, but look at the cyclical stocks. Many big cap energy stocks have made new lows. They are doing worse than in March. The market has quickly changed from being optimistic to pessimistic about a recovery. The oil services ETF (OIH) fell 13.2% from its October high and is down 66% year to date.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Energy is historically a very volatile sector, but this is undoubtedly in the record books as one of the worst downturns in history. Because it is worse than any other energy decline, we need to compare this to the worst sector declines in the past 30 years. The chart above shows the drawdown in the tech sector in the early 2000s and the financial sector in the late 2000s after the housing crisis. The current energy weakness is nearly as bad as those two were. You can say this is the once in a decade crash in one of the S&P sectors.
This could be the buying opportunity of the decade like the banks and tech were after their crashes. Remember, prior to the financial crisis, in 2007 and 2008 energy outperformed remarkably. This is its turn to crash. Energy crashed from 2014 to 2016, but that wasn’t enough. It’s back to falling again. Eventually, low prices become the cure for low prices because projects get canceled and scarcity sets the price. The idea that the oil market is suddenly going to be in balance, when the economy reopens, without the 13 million barrels America was once producing is ludicrous. This is a cyclical decline. There isn’t enough green energy to make up for the lost energy, meaning it’s not a secular decline.
Housing Is On Fire
The housing market continues to stay hot. Prices are starting to spike. Such high price growth might limit demand especially if rates rise. Luckily for housing, rates are falling as investors fear an economic slowdown. The August FHFA home price index showed yearly growth rose from 6.5% to 8% as the chart below shows. This type of price growth is unsustainable as it is the highest since March 2006. Peak growth in the 2000s housing bubble was 10.7%. Unless we have a scenario with very easy comps, such growth won’t be repeated.
US home price gains accelerate amid tight inventories.t.co/XeymCmeqqW pic.twitter.com/iTQke9uBQ8 — (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) October 28, 2020
The MBA applications index also was strong. In the week of October 23rd, the composite index was up 1.7% weekly which followed a 0.6% decline. Refinancing was up 3% weekly after increasing 0.2%. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate was 2.8% last week which was a record low. Purchase applications were up 0.2% weekly after falling 2%. Yearly growth was 24%. We have seen double digit yearly growth for 23 straight weeks.
Cheap Banks
It’s not that hard to see why banks could make a good investment because loan losses are limited, they are well capitalized, mortgage lending is strong, and deposit growth is strong. The banks just need the economy to keep recovering and long yields to rise a bit to help their interest rate spread. Even though the banks aren’t in bad shape like after the financial crisis, they are very cheap. As you can see from the chart below, the median price to tangible book value of all publicly traded banks is lower than the trough after the financial crisis. The banks are the cheapest since the worst part of the savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s.
Gator Capital on US regional bank stockst.co/yf7SCcHN24 pic.twitter.com/xYDMcr6zXj — Fritz (@Fritz844) October 28, 2020
Conclusion
Investors decided to fear the same things they were ignoring two weeks ago. COVID-19 was spiking in the Midwest and France when the market was near its record. Now it suddenly cares about this negative. Furthermore, the recovery has been gradually slowing for a while. It seemed like 2 weeks ago the market was fine with waiting for a vaccine in November and a stimulus in January, but now it wants help sooner. The energy sector is in one of the worst bear markets any sector has experienced in the past 30 years. It is nearly as bad as the financial sector after the housing bubble and tech after the dot com bust. Banks are the cheapest since the 1989 SNL crisis.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--60k Puts bought on HYG

60k Puts bought on HYG

Big bet against junk bonds with -.02 delta .
A trader is betting that we will be seeing chaos in @ @ @ @ @ under a month .
Cheap hedge or just a speculative bet ?
I am guessing @ @ @ @ @ The strike targets a range just above the March 2020 lows .
For reference HYG @ @ @ @ @ in March Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make @ @ @ @ @ the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial @ @ @ @ @ decision .

by Particular-Wedding
Big bet against junk bonds with -.02 delta. A trader is betting that we will be seeing chaos in the fixed income/credit markets in under a month. Cheap hedge or just a speculative bet? I am guessing a bit of both. The strike targets a range just above the March 2020 lows.

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For reference HYG hit 67.52 at a low in March
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Google searches and infections

Google searches and infections

The curves are also following each others in France .
I took death cases of coronavirus , because France did @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/E3lZegGYP0

The curves are also following each others in France.
I took death cases of coronavirus, because France didn't test well before august pic.twitter.com/E3lZegGYP0
— Jean-Baptiste Viet (@jeanviet) October 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Most employers issue only paychecks every two weeks. In the meantime, payroll processors like ADP ma

Most employers issue only paychecks every two weeks. In the meantime, payroll processors like ADP make millions from investing worker salaries before they’re paid.

There are efforts to use technology to shorten the gap between someone working and getting paid .
To learn more @ @ @ @ @ ( first , second ) that NPR ran on this topic last year .
I @ @ @ @ @ ’ s quarterly reports .
The date reflects the total amount ADP made in the @ @ @ @ @ given date .
I made the chart in R. I pasted my source code as @ @ @ @

by TrueBirch
There are efforts to use technology to shorten the gap between someone working and getting paid. To learn more, check out two pieces (first, second) that NPR ran on this topic last year.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I found the numbers in ADP’s quarterly reports. The date reflects the total amount ADP made in the quarter that ended on the given date. I made the chart in R. I pasted my source code as a subcomment below.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Most Central Banks are now at 0% or NEG% overnight rates. Here’s a composite of G10 overnight rates.

2/ Most central banks are also engaged in QE .
Here 's balance sheet/GDP for $ USD , $ EUR @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/jqvXz3g6AC 4/ another consequence has been a gradual decline in yield produced by investment grade @ @ @ @ @ `` safe '' income for conservative investors .
This chart shows how the yield for @ @ @ @ @ over the last 10 years .
pic.twitter.com/Q1NeyS3Mco

2/ Most central banks are also engaged in QE. Here's balance sheet/GDP for $USD , $EUR , $JPY $GBP pic.twitter.com/jqvXz3g6AC
4/ another consequence has been a gradual decline in yield produced by investment grade bonds. This means less "safe" income for conservative investors. This chart shows how the yield for $LQD has declined steadily over the last 10 years. pic.twitter.com/Q1NeyS3Mco
— IceCap (@IceCapGlobal) October 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Moving averages not holding

Moving averages not holding

Tick…tick…tick… The Pan-European banks are very , very close to taking out their ALL TIME LOW ( from 1987 ) @ @ @ @ @ support will be explosive to the downside .
The Winter of Discontent… .
pic.twitter.com/UZFOUUXAC0

Tick…tick…tick… The Pan-European banks are very, very close to taking out their ALL TIME LOW (from 1987). A break of that support will be explosive to the downside. The Winter of Discontent…. pic.twitter.com/UZFOUUXAC0
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) October 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Bondholders going turkey – only 9 cents to $. Ouch!

`` A disturbing new signal from the CDS market '' t.co/eSJrJ30zDB via @ financialtimes Bondholders going turkey – only 9 @ @ @ @ @ !
!
!
pic.twitter.com/XDgudiw7D3

"A disturbing new signal from the CDS market" t.co/eSJrJ30zDB via @financialtimes Bondholders going turkey – only 9 cents to $. Ouch!!! pic.twitter.com/XDgudiw7D3
— Fernando Chau (@fchaumac_chau) October 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--E.L Paso Just Announced Lockdown of Non-Essential Businesses, Rest Of Country May Soon Follow?

With E.L Paso just announcing a two week lockdown of non-essential businesses due to a surge of Covid and the strains its causing on its healthcare system , I honestly believe that this is a precursor for the rest of the U.S as Covid infections continue to rise at an exponential rate with hospitalizations and deaths just lagging behind the curve by about a few weeks to a month .
What this means is that chances are , the US is in for a tough fall and winter and its most likely that this wave will be far more severe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infections didn ’ t reach the US until well past the new year .
Now during the first lockdown , the FED put a backstop on virtually everything .
They dropped interest rates to 0 % , started infinite QE , and got lending facilities set up to cover virtually every part of the credit market whether its car loans or credit card debt .
They actually got the market to believe that the FED is bailing them out on all fronts .
Meanwhile , the federal government went trillions into debt subsidizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ checks to cover them over the summer .
Now , since those actions by the FED and the government have already been spent , its most likely the market already priced them in since March .
With this new wave of lockdowns , what else can the FED really do to boost confidence in stocks when its already at all-time high ?
Can Powell really do infinity QE x 2 ?
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

Here’s the link:
dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/10/29/texas-county-shutdown-coronavirus-surge/

With E.L Paso just announcing a two week lockdown of non-essential businesses due to a surge of Covid and the strains its causing on its healthcare system, I honestly believe that this is a precursor for the rest of the U.S as Covid infections continue to rise at an exponential rate with hospitalizations and deaths just lagging behind the curve by about a few weeks to a month.
What this means is that chances are, the US is in for a tough fall and winter and its most likely that this wave will be far more severe than the first wave because the first infections didn’t reach the US until well past the new year.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now during the first lockdown, the FED put a backstop on virtually everything. They dropped interest rates to 0%, started infinite QE, and got lending facilities set up to cover virtually every part of the credit market whether its car loans or credit card debt. They actually got the market to believe that the FED is bailing them out on all fronts. Meanwhile, the federal government went trillions into debt subsidizing business expenses and giving everyone those stimmy checks to cover them over the summer.
Now, since those actions by the FED and the government have already been spent, its most likely the market already priced them in since March. With this new wave of lockdowns, what else can the FED really do to boost confidence in stocks when its already at all-time high? Can Powell really do infinity QE x 2?
Probably not.
Tl;dr: Get VIX
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 tr

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion

Current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent , or $ 1.64 trillion , in the third quarter to a level of $ 21.16 trillion .
In the second quarter , GDP decreased 32.8 percent , or $ 2.04 trillion ( tables 1 and 3 ) .
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter , in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the second quarter ( table 4 ) .
The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent , in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent .
Excluding food and energy prices , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent .
Current-dollar personal income decreased $ 540.6 billion in the third quarter , in contrast to an increase of $ 1.45 trillion in the second quarter .
The decrease in personal income was more than accounted for by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts ( notably , government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs ) that was partly offset by increases in compensation and proprietors ’ income ( table 8 ) .
Additional information on several factors impacting personal income can be found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Response Programs on Personal Income.
” Disposable personal income decreased $ 636.7 billion , or 13.2 percent , in the third quarter , in contrast to an increase of $ 1.60 trillion , or 44.3 percent , in the second quarter .
Real disposable personal income decreased 16.3 percent , in contrast to an increase of 46.6 percent .
Personal saving was $ 2.78 trillion in the third quarter , compared with $ 4.71 trillion in the second quarter .
The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 15.8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with 25.7 percent in the second quarter .

www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate
From BEA website:
Current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion (tables 1 and 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent.
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Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income decreased $540.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.45 trillion in the second quarter. The decrease in personal income was more than accounted for by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs) that was partly offset by increases in compensation and proprietors’ income (table 8). Additional information on several factors impacting personal income can be found in “Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.”
Disposable personal income decreased $636.7 billion, or 13.2 percent, in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.60 trillion, or 44.3 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 16.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 46.6 percent.
Personal saving was $2.78 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $4.71 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 15.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 25.7 percent in the second quarter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Many areas in the Northeast turned into winter wonderlands as snowfall blanketed much of the region

Many areas in the Northeast turned into winter wonderlands as snowfall blanketed much of the region today : t.co/w9hgZjBlKw pic.twitter.com/yNLHy2VN3K

Many areas in the Northeast turned into winter wonderlands as snowfall blanketed much of the region today: t.co/w9hgZjBlKw pic.twitter.com/yNLHy2VN3K
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) October 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--The spate of “one if by land two if by air” jokes that made the rounds right after was excellent

The spate of “ one if by land two if by air ” jokes that made the rounds right after @ @ @

The spate of “one if by land two if by air” jokes that made the rounds right after was excellent t.co/vZlhZII8rd
— Dow (@mark_dow) October 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Jim Rogers: Great Depression 2.0?

Jim Rogers: Great Depression 2.0?

Jim Rogers is not only one of the most successful investors of our era , he ’ s also an avid scholar of history .
Seeing that the world is buried under an unprecedented mountain of debt that is requiring more and more central planner intervention to keep from imploding on itself , Jim says history is clear on what happens next .
A clearing of the debt either via massive default , or destruction of the currency it ’ s denominated in .
He looks into the future and sees a terrible reckoning ahead ; one he predicts will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my lifetime ” — and Jim is 78 years old .
So where should investors look to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth against what ’ s coming ?
Jim highly recommends precious metals and other commodities as an important part of the solution .
As an overall index , commodities are the cheapest they ’ ve ever been vs the general stock market in over half a century : Like many of the previous guest experts on our program , Jim maintains the near-term environment will be one of the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Which is why now , more than ever , is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the risks in play , can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs , and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate : Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here .
And if you ’ re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations .
We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website .
If you ’ ve already got one , great .
But if not , consider talking to the team at New Harbor .
We ’ ve set up this ‘ free consultation ’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you .

by Adam Taggart
Jim Rogers is not only one of the most successful investors of our era, he’s also an avid scholar of history.
Seeing that the world is buried under an unprecedented mountain of debt that is requiring more and more central planner intervention to keep from imploding on itself, Jim says history is clear on what happens next.
A clearing of the debt either via massive default, or destruction of the currency it’s denominated in.
He looks into the future and sees a terrible reckoning ahead; one he predicts will be “the worst economic crisis of my lifetime” — and Jim is 78 years old.
So where should investors look to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth against what’s coming?
Jim highly recommends precious metals and other commodities as an important part of the solution. As an overall index, commodities are the cheapest they’ve ever been vs the general stock market in over half a century:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Like many of the previous guest experts on our program, Jim maintains the near-term environment will be one of the most challenging times to invest in our lives.
Which is why now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the risks in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate:
Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here.
And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations.
We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.
But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Contagion! Covid Strikes, Fed Reacts, Dollar Crashes, Bitcoin And Gold Rise (Hedge Disaster With Gol

Contagion! Covid Strikes, Fed Reacts, Dollar Crashes, Bitcoin And Gold Rise (Hedge Disaster With Gold … And Bitcoin)

Covid struck in late 2019 , but really hit markets hard in March .
The Federal Reserve ’ s reaction @ @ @ @ @ cutting of their target rate and expansion of The Fed ’ s balance sheet ) @ @ @ @ @ in the US Dollar .
How do you hedge the negative effects of Covid and @ @ @ @ @ lethal viruses ?
?
Gold and Bitcoin , although gold has been trailing off lately @ @ @ @ @ on the chin this morning , especially EOS .
This morning , the US Dollar @ @ @ @ @ is up , Bitcoin ( white ) is down and gold ( gold ? )
@ @ @ @ @ decline .
As we know , Bitcoin is not a coin .
This post goes @ @ @ @ @ No , not that one .

by confoundedinterest17
Covid struck in late 2019, but really hit markets hard in March. The Federal Reserve’s reaction to the Covid crisis (cutting of their target rate and expansion of The Fed’s balance sheet) has led to a crash in the US Dollar.
How do you hedge the negative effects of Covid and Fed intervention (two potentially lethal viruses?? Gold and Bitcoin, although gold has been trailing off lately.
Cryptocurrencies are taking it on the chin this morning, especially EOS.
This morning, the US Dollar (green for greenbacks) is up, Bitcoin (white) is down and gold (gold?) is recovering from an early decline.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As we know, Bitcoin is not a coin.
But gold is … gold.
Jesse’s Cafe Americain has excellent metals charts.
This post goes out to Brittany Murphy. No, not that one.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Is Europe Deliberately Crushing their Economy for the Great Reset?

COMMENT # 1 ( France ) : What the hell is going on ?
!
This is so frustrating .
I want , no , NEED someone to shed some real , unbiased light on this .
Do you have some available ?
Hope you ’ re ok. Jealous of you being in Florida !
!
( Assuming it ’ s still relatively sane over there . )
As you will no doubt know , Europe is heading back to total lockdown everywhere .
Eastern Europe has been the worst , actually .
They ’ ve gone totally tyrannical , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( incl .
on the streets , parks , etc ) , cafes , restaurants , all culture , many/most shops and “ non-essential ” businesses now closed in most areas , and total lockdown in places like Czech Republic , Slovakia , Slovenia , etc .
There have been some small-scale demonstrations in recent weeks in Bratislava , Prague , Poland , etc – and the cops ( and in some cases military ) have used brutal force against the peaceful protesters ( water cannons , tear gas , firing rubber bullets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ ve threatened to jail people who participated , because in “ state of emergency ” long jail penalties can be given to anyone disobeying the rules that ban public/social gatherings , etc .
Also , Slovakia is doing mandatory “ covid ” testing of the entire population ( except kids under 10 years of age ) !
It ’ s not technically mandatory BUT , anyone who will not have the document attesting a negative test result ( which people must carry with themselves at all time in case they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be able to go to work or enter any shop ) will be deemed “ positive ” and not allowed to leave home at all !
So , if you don ’ t get tested , you ’ re screwed – not able to go to work , to buy anything in a store , or even to leave home because cops will be patrolling and asking for the document .
As I ’ ve told you some time ago… Westerners are under the illusion that people from formerly communist/totalitarian countries would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t .
The VAST majority of people in all these countries are ok with all this tyranny ; they think it ’ s for “ public health ” ( aka for their own good ) , and they turn not on the tyrannical government but on the few who don ’ t want to obey these evil , anti-human , tyrannical mandates .
Aside of perhaps China ( with their evil total monitoring , social credit score , etc etc ) Slovakia is now literally right on top of the most tyrannical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home !
( And , of course , soon the “ test ” will be replaced by a “ vaccine ” , then a chip , etc – and everyone will get injected because otherwise they will have to be locked in at home and starve to death ! )
Most people didn ’ t believe Europe would go back into lockdown… well , here we are .
And it ’ s only October – the flu season hasn ’ t even properly started yet .
We ’ re soon going to envy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Depressing as hell….I don ’ t want to live in this sick tyrannical world .
REPLY : I have friends around the world who are all writing in and becoming very concerned .
Europe is intent on pushing the Great Reset , using this virus as the justification to crush the economy to force people to ACCEPT their Guaranteed Basic Income and to usher in the Great Reset .
Instead of revising the system properly , they have taken the totalitarian approach to retain power .
I seriously question if there will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a high probability that we will see international war by 2027 .
There is absolutely NO possible way these people do not know what they are doing .
This is a deliberate action to use COVID-19 to crush the economy and the people into submission .
If you simply look at the European share indexes , you see nothing remotely similar to the United States .
They are down on average 30 % for the year and they look like death warmed-over .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1 (France): What the hell is going on?! This is so frustrating. I want, no, NEED someone to shed some real, unbiased light on this. Do you have some available?
K
COMMENT#2 (Spain): Hi Marty,
Hope you’re ok. Jealous of you being in Florida!! (Assuming it’s still relatively sane over there.)
As you will no doubt know, Europe is heading back to total lockdown everywhere. Eastern Europe has been the worst, actually. They’ve gone totally tyrannical, ever since September.
Masks mandatory everywhere (incl. on the streets, parks, etc), cafes, restaurants, all culture, many/most shops and “non-essential” businesses now closed in most areas, and total lockdown in places like Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, etc.
There have been some small-scale demonstrations in recent weeks in Bratislava, Prague, Poland, etc – and the cops (and in some cases military) have used brutal force against the peaceful protesters (water cannons, tear gas, firing rubber bullets, etc). In Slovakia, they’ve threatened to jail people who participated, because in “state of emergency” long jail penalties can be given to anyone disobeying the rules that ban public/social gatherings, etc.
Also, Slovakia is doing mandatory “covid” testing of the entire population (except kids under 10 years of age)! It’s not technically mandatory BUT, anyone who will not have the document attesting a negative test result (which people must carry with themselves at all time in case they’re stopped by police, and also to be able to go to work or enter any shop) will be deemed “positive” and not allowed to leave home at all! So, if you don’t get tested, you’re screwed – not able to go to work, to buy anything in a store, or even to leave home because cops will be patrolling and asking for the document.
As I’ve told you some time ago… Westerners are under the illusion that people from formerly communist/totalitarian countries would resist tyranny. Well, they don’t. The VAST majority of people in all these countries are ok with all this tyranny; they think it’s for “public health” (aka for their own good), and they turn not on the tyrannical government but on the few who don’t want to obey these evil, anti-human, tyrannical mandates.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Aside of perhaps China (with their evil total monitoring, social credit score, etc etc) Slovakia is now literally right on top of the most tyrannical countries. No test, no leaving home! (And, of course, soon the “test” will be replaced by a “vaccine”, then a chip, etc – and everyone will get injected because otherwise they will have to be locked in at home and starve to death!)
Most people didn’t believe Europe would go back into lockdown… well, here we are. And it’s only October – the flu season hasn’t even properly started yet.
We’re soon going to envy those who lived under Stalin or Mao.
Depressing as hell….I don’t want to live in this sick tyrannical world.
Take care.
P
REPLY: I have friends around the world who are all writing in and becoming very concerned. Europe is intent on pushing the Great Reset, using this virus as the justification to crush the economy to force people to ACCEPT their Guaranteed Basic Income and to usher in the Great Reset. Instead of revising the system properly, they have taken the totalitarian approach to retain power. I seriously question if there will be any elections post-2024 and there is a high probability that we will see international war by 2027.
There is absolutely NO possible way these people do not know what they are doing. This is a deliberate action to use COVID-19 to crush the economy and the people into submission. If you simply look at the European share indexes, you see nothing remotely similar to the United States. They are down on average 30% for the year and they look like death warmed-over.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-30--Are Stock Markets About To Crash Again?

Are Stock Markets About To Crash Again?

Late last year , a cross-section of pundits predicted that 2020 would go down as one of the most volatile years in the history of financial markets mainly due to escalating trade wars .
Turns out they were half-right .
The current year really has been one of the most volatile on record not due to the feared trade tensions but a much deadlier foe : Covid-19 .
The global pandemic was directly responsible for the epic market crash back in March–the fastest in history–and it could be about to do the markets in , again .
After a brief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic under control , fear and volatility have returned to the stock markets with a vengeance thanks to the so-called second wave of Covid-19 .
A commonly used volatility gauge , VIX , has surged 53 % over the past 30 days while the market benchmark S & P 500 registered its biggest drop in a month on Monday .
The S & P 500 has effectively given up three months ’ worth of gains while the Dow Jones continues to sink deeper into negative territory in what is beginning to look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crash .
The latest market downturn has been partially fueled by Frances and Germany ’ s consideration of new lockdown restrictions , a trend that could quickly spread to other countries .
A second wave of coronavirus infections has overwhelmed many European countries before the winter at a pace that has exceeded the most pessimistic projections .
The new lockdown measures in France are reminiscent of the previous lockdown , requiring people to stay in their homes except when they need to buy essential goods , exercise for up to one hour a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Germany will shut restaurants , bars , and theatres from Nov. 2 till the end of the month .
Schools in both countries though will remain open .
The timing of the second wave of coronavirus infections could not have been worse , with hopes for a quick government stimulus deal dashed while the U.S. elections are expected to inject another heavy dose of volatility .
Hopes of an imminent agreement for the US economy have been crushed after the Senate was suspended until after next week ’ s election with little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sealed during the so-called “ lame duck ” period i.e .
the period after the vote pending January ’ s inauguration .
New York Times bestselling author and founder of ‘ The Bear Traps Report ’ Lawrence ‘ Larry ’ McDonald has warned of the ‘ cobra effect ’ whereby the stimuli designed to save the economy will instead ‘ ‘ …cause a hyperinflationary economic collapse.
’ ’ Larry has sounded an eerie warning of signs of a “ Lehman-like drawdown ’ ’ developing in the markets and that “ …we are at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect in the history of economics.
” The cobra effect that Larry is alluding to is the school of thinking that says that every human decision brings with it unintended consequences .
The markets have become too dependent on government largesse , but there ’ s only so much that governments can do .
However , some analysts are saying that Trump could actually be a better deal for the markets .
JPMorgan has declared that “ an ‘ orderly ’ Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities , ” projecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jump nearly 20 % to 3,900 points if he is able to secure reelection .
On the other hand , JPM sees a sweep by Democrats as being “ mostly neutral ” for markets .
Healthcare , energy , and financial sectors are likely to see the most outsized moves in either direction depending on which candidate carries the day .

By Safehaven.com
Late last year, a cross-section of pundits predicted that 2020 would go down as one of the most volatile years in the history of financial markets mainly due to escalating trade wars. Turns out they were half-right. The current year really has been one of the most volatile on record not due to the feared trade tensions but a much deadlier foe: Covid-19.
The global pandemic was directly responsible for the epic market crash back in March–the fastest in history–and it could be about to do the markets in, again.
After a brief rebound on optimism that we had brought the pandemic under control, fear and volatility have returned to the stock markets with a vengeance thanks to the so-called second wave of Covid-19.
A commonly used volatility gauge, VIX, has surged 53% over the past 30 days while the market benchmark S&P 500 registered its biggest drop in a month on Monday. The S&P 500 has effectively given up three months’ worth of gains while the Dow Jones continues to sink deeper into negative territory in what is beginning to look like the making of yet another market crash.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Source: Business Insider
Source: CNN Money
Dashed stimulus hopes
The latest market downturn has been partially fueled by Frances and Germany’s consideration of new lockdown restrictions, a trend that could quickly spread to other countries.
A second wave of coronavirus infections has overwhelmed many European countries before the winter at a pace that has exceeded the most pessimistic projections. The new lockdown measures in France are reminiscent of the previous lockdown, requiring people to stay in their homes except when they need to buy essential goods, exercise for up to one hour a day or seek medical attention. Meanwhile, Germany will shut restaurants, bars, and theatres from Nov. 2 till the end of the month. Schools in both countries though will remain open.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The timing of the second wave of coronavirus infections could not have been worse, with hopes for a quick government stimulus deal dashed while the U.S. elections are expected to inject another heavy dose of volatility.
Hopes of an imminent agreement for the US economy have been crushed after the Senate was suspended until after next week’s election with little clarity regarding whether a deal can be sealed during the so-called “lame duck” period i.e. the period after the vote pending January’s inauguration.
New York Times bestselling author and founder of ‘The Bear Traps Report’ Lawrence ‘Larry’ McDonald has warned of the ‘cobra effect’ whereby the stimuli designed to save the economy will instead ‘‘…cause a hyperinflationary economic collapse.’’Larry has sounded an eerie warning of signs of a “Lehman-like drawdown’’ developing in the markets and that “…we are at the early stage of the biggest cobra effect in the history of economics.”
The cobra effect that Larry is alluding to is the school of thinking that says that every human decision brings with it unintended consequences.
The markets have become too dependent on government largesse, but there’s only so much that governments can do.
However, some analysts are saying that Trump could actually be a better deal for the markets.
JPMorgan has declared that “an ‘orderly’ Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities,” projecting that the S&P 500 could jump nearly 20% to 3,900 points if he is able to secure reelection.
On the other hand, JPM sees a sweep by Democrats as being “mostly neutral” for markets.
Healthcare, energy, and financial sectors are likely to see the most outsized moves in either direction depending on which candidate carries the day.
By Alex Kimani for Safehaven.com