investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--The banks of Italy face another crisis

The banks of Italy face another crisis

2020 has been quite a year and something of an annus horribilis.What such events reveal if we borrow the words of Warren Buffet is those who have been swimming with swimming trunks .
If there is a group anywhere in the world that has been doing this it has been the Italian banks who had enough problems before the Covid-19 pandemic started .
So much so that at least in one case I am reminded of the famous words of Paul Simon .
If there is a bank that deserves that lyric it is Monte Paschi which has had bailout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walking dead in banking terms .
The last bit raises a grim smile after all nobody wanted Monte Paschi even in what were considered to be the good times of the “ Euro boom ” so who would want it now ?
Along the way the Italian taxpayer has taken quite a hammering .
I think that rescued is the wrong word as it implies a sort of permanence , whereas the reality has been that Monte Paschi rather like Oliver !
is always asking for more .
Indeed one route involves the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeating problem for Monte Pasch is that it needs more money but getting it from shareholders is shall we say problematic when you have a track record like this .
Now if we do some back of the envelope maths we have at least 23 billion Euros lost in the deals above to which is added risk on another 8 billion .
Against that we have a bank valued at 1 billion Euros .
It was only a few years ago that the then Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzo told us MPS was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come under the Italian version of the trade descriptions act ?
We can also note something of an Alice In Wonderland world .
Paying 8.5 % for your debt hardly helps your profitability and wait for the original estimates of what it would have to pay on riskier debt .
The only way I can see this circle being squared is a new ECB asset purchase programme which will allow investors to buy such debt and then pass it on .
This is another way of kicking the can if you have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argue that many mergers were driven by the reality that such an event makes the accounts pretty opaque for a couple of years .
Thus something like this was little surprise .
That really defines bad timing doesn ’ t it ?
Whilst it is hard to think of a good time to buy an Italian bank buying this year is bad even on that perspective .
But according to Intesa it is something of a triumph .
Considering the record this looks like very faint praise .
Putting it another way the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the deal was announced and is 1.58 Euros now .
This is desperately trying to avoid being a white knight for Monte Paschi .
It has enough of its own problems with a share price of 7 Euros which is half that of what it was as recently as February .
This has been something of a slow motion car crash .
I am not surprised that we see legal claims being enacted because whilst the Covid-19 pandemic came out of the blue , it is also true that money has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told .
The official view of the Bank of Italy from April reflected this .
There are certainly plenty of signs of weakening shareholder confidence in banks .
This comes in spite of the fact that they have been handed another freebie .
For newer readers Italian banks hold a lot of government bonds ( around 400 billion Euros ) so the rise in price driven by ECB buying allows them to sell at a high price or at least to put such prices in their accounts .
Although of course they did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the “ bond spreads ” statement made by ECB President Christine Lagarde .
We have seen various fund emerge to take on the bad debts and regular readers will recall the private-sector Atlante and Atlante II .
The latter got renamed as the Italian Recovery Fund which I think speaks for itself .
These days there is a state backed vehicle described by Fitch in May like this .
So with “ unlikely-to-pay ” we have yet another new phrase and change of language .
What we have seen is in fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future and discovering that the future is worse than the present .
We look back on a pile of losses for shareholders and taxpayers for what exactly ?
At the same time a bus has been driven through Euro area rules .

by Shaun Richards
2020 has been quite a year and something of an annus horribilis.What such events reveal if we borrow the words of Warren Buffet is those who have been swimming with swimming trunks. If there is a group anywhere in the world that has been doing this it has been the Italian banks who had enough problems before the Covid-19 pandemic started. So much so that at least in one case I am reminded of the famous words of Paul Simon.
Hello darkness, my old friend
I’ve come to talk with you again
Monte dei Paschi di Siena
If there is a bank that deserves that lyric it is Monte Paschi which has had bailout after bailout but still rather resembles the walking dead in banking terms.
MILAN (Reuters) – Italy’s clean-up scheme for Monte dei Paschi di Siena BMPS.MI is set to be approved by shareholders of the state-owned bank on Sunday after two years’ in the planning, but it is unlikely to be enough to attract a buyer.
The last bit raises a grim smile after all nobody wanted Monte Paschi even in what were considered to be the good times of the “Euro boom” so who would want it now? Along the way the Italian taxpayer has taken quite a hammering.
The government rescued Monte dei Paschi (MPS) in 2017, paying 5.4 billion euros ($6.3 billion) for a 68% stake now worth 1 billion euros, which it must sell next year under the terms of the 8.2 billion euro bailout.
I think that rescued is the wrong word as it implies a sort of permanence, whereas the reality has been that Monte Paschi rather like Oliver! is always asking for more. Indeed one route involves the Italian taxpayer taking another hit.
To boost the appeal of the world’s oldest bank still in business, Italy has been working on a scheme to cut MPS’ problem loan ratio below the industry average, offloading 8 billion euros in soured debts to state-owned bad loan manager AMCO.
The repeating problem for Monte Pasch is that it needs more money but getting it from shareholders is shall we say problematic when you have a track record like this.
MPS has been laid low by years of mismanagement, an ill-advised acquisition and risky derivatives deals. It faces 10 billion euros in legal claims, mostly from disgruntled investors who lost money in a string of cash calls worth 18.5 billion euros in the past decade.
Now if we do some back of the envelope maths we have at least 23 billion Euros lost in the deals above to which is added risk on another 8 billion. Against that we have a bank valued at 1 billion Euros. It was only a few years ago that the then Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzo told us MPS was a good investment. Surely that must come under the Italian version of the trade descriptions act?
We can also note something of an Alice In Wonderland world.
To authorise the clean-up, which shaves 1.1 billion euros off MPS’ capital and must be completed by Dec. 1, the European Central Bank has demanded MPS raises fresh capital via costly issues of Tier 1 and Tier 2 debt. MPS paid 8.5% for the Tier 2 issue, and analysts say Additional Tier1 (AT1) debt is a non-starter for a bank that expects to remain loss-making through 2022 and would not be allowed, as such, to pay a coupon on it.
Paying 8.5% for your debt hardly helps your profitability and wait for the original estimates of what it would have to pay on riskier debt.
The ECB has asked the bank to prove that private investors would be ready to buy 30% of a potential Tier1 issue but broker Equita estimated such debt could cost Monte dei Paschi as much as 15% a year, further weakening its finances.
The only way I can see this circle being squared is a new ECB asset purchase programme which will allow investors to buy such debt and then pass it on.
Merger Mania
This is another way of kicking the can if you have a problem. My late father used to argue that many mergers were driven by the reality that such an event makes the accounts pretty opaque for a couple of years. Thus something like this was little surprise.
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Intesa Sanpaolo’s public tender offer for UBI Banca shares, launched on February 17, 2020, ended on 30 July, with acceptance by 90.2% of UBI’s shareholders. Following a five-month process, Intesa Sanpaolo successfully surpassed the two-thirds acceptance by UBI Banca shareholders needed to ensure the merger of UBI into Intesa Sanpaolo.
That really defines bad timing doesn’t it? Whilst it is hard to think of a good time to buy an Italian bank buying this year is bad even on that perspective. But according to Intesa it is something of a triumph.
In a statement following the announcement of the provisional results, Intesa Sanpaolo CEO Carlo Messina said that a new European banking leader had been created. Messina also underlined that Intesa Sanpaolo has become the first bank in Europe to launch a new consolidation phase that will strengthen the Continent’s banking sector.
Considering the record this looks like very faint praise.
UBI is the best run medium-sized bank in Italy
Putting it another way the Intesa share price went above 2.6 Euros when the deal was announced and is 1.58 Euros now.
Unicredit
This is desperately trying to avoid being a white knight for Monte Paschi. It has enough of its own problems with a share price of 7 Euros which is half that of what it was as recently as February.
Comment
This has been something of a slow motion car crash. I am not surprised that we see legal claims being enacted because whilst the Covid-19 pandemic came out of the blue, it is also true that money has been raised whilst the truth has not been told. The official view of the Bank of Italy from April reflected this.
Italian banks are facing the new risks from a
stronger position than at the start of the global
financial crisis. Between 2007 and 2019, the
ratio of the highest loss-absorbing capital to
risk-weighted assets almost doubled, loans are
now funded entirely by deposits, and there are no
signs of a weakening of depositor confidence in
banks.
There are certainly plenty of signs of weakening shareholder confidence in banks. This comes in spite of the fact that they have been handed another freebie.
#Italy‘s 10-year bond #yield down to new record-low of just 0.79%… ( @jsblokland )
For newer readers Italian banks hold a lot of government bonds ( around 400 billion Euros) so the rise in price driven by ECB buying allows them to sell at a high price or at least to put such prices in their accounts. Although of course they did have a scare earlier in the year after the “bond spreads” statement made by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
We have seen various fund emerge to take on the bad debts and regular readers will recall the private-sector Atlante and Atlante II. The latter got renamed as the Italian Recovery Fund which I think speaks for itself. These days there is a state backed vehicle described by Fitch in May like this.
AMCO is a debt purchaser and servicer with nearly EUR25 billion of assets under management and a leading position in the unlikely-to-pay (UTP) loans sector. While operating at market conditions the government’s backing makes AMCO the reference company for direct or indirect state-led bail-outs of distressed banks.
So with “unlikely-to-pay” we have yet another new phrase and change of language.
What we have seen is in fact the consequence of kicking the can into the future and discovering that the future is worse than the present. We look back on a pile of losses for shareholders and taxpayers for what exactly? At the same time a bus has been driven through Euro area rules.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--The Microchip Is HERE: DARPA Biochip to “Save” Us from COVID Can Control Human DNA

While half of the American voting public is no doubt waiting in earnest for the announcement of a release of the COVID vaccine and as totalitarian states and governments the world over attempt to require proof of negative tests before travel , a new tool in the shed of government surveillance and control is revealing itself .
While many are still attacking anyone warning of the “ coming Microchip ” as a conspiracy theorist , Luddite , or religious fanatic , that microchip has arrived .
But governments aren ’ t having to market the chip as a method to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populations .
Instead , they are marketing the chip as a way to track and detect COVID and other coronaviruses .
Clearly , this is a much easier sell to a public literally terrorized by their governments and mainstream media outlets for the last six months .
Raul Diego details the creation and coming rollout of the new biochip in his article , “ A DARPA-Funded Implantable Microchip to Detect COVID-19 Could Hit Markets By 2021 , ” where he writes , The most significant scientific discovery since gravity has been hiding in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its destructive potential to humanity is so enormous that the biggest war machine on the planet immediately deployed its vast resources to possess and control it , financing its research and development through agencies like the National Institutes of Health ( NIH ) , the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ( DARPA ) and HHS ’ BARDA .
The revolutionary breakthrough came to a Canadian scientist named Derek Rossi in 2010 purely by accident .
The now-retired Harvard professor claimed in an interview with the National Post that he found a way to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the genetic instructions for cell development in the human body , not to mention all biological lifeforms .
These molecules are called ‘ messenger ribonucleic acid ’ or mRNA and the newfound ability to rewrite those instructions to produce any kind of cell within a biological organism has radically changed the course of Western medicine and science , even if no one has really noticed yet .
As Rossi , himself , puts it : “ The real important discovery here was you could now use mRNA , and if you got it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get the mRNA to express any protein in the cells , and this was the big thing.
” ( Source ) Here ’ s what the technology can do This new technology amounts to the remote control of biological processes .
As early as 2006 , DARPA was already researching how to identify viral , upper respiratory pathogens through its Predicting Health and Disease ( PHD ) program , which led to the creation of the agency ’ s Biological Technologies Office ( BTO ) , as reported by Whitney Webb in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In 2014 , DARPA ’ s BTO launched its “ In Vivo Nanoplatforms ” ( IVN ) program , which researches implantable nanotechnologies , leading to the development of ‘ hydrogel ’ .
Hydrogel is a nanotechnology whose inventor early on boasted that “ If [ it ] pans out , with approval from FDA , then consumers could get the sensors implanted in their core to measure their levels of glucose , oxygen , and lactate.
” This contact lens-like material requires a special injector to be introduced under the skin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through a wireless network like 5G .
Once firmly implanted inside the body , human cells are at the mercy of any mRNA program delivered via this substrate , unleashing a nightmare of possibilities .
It is , perhaps , the first true step towards full-on transhumanism .
( Source ) Patrick Tucker of Defense One goes into a few more specifics of how the biochip works .
He describes it as follows : The sensor has two parts .
One is a 3mm string of hydrogel , a material whose network of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lenses and other implants .
Inserted under the skin with a syringe , the string includes a specially engineered molecule that sends a fluorescent signal outside of the body when the body begins to fight an infection .
The other part is an electronic component attached to the skin .
It sends light through the skin , detects the fluorescent signal and generates another signal that the wearer can send to a doctor , website , etc .
It ’ s like a blood lab on the skin that can pick up the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presence of other symptoms , like coughing .
You won ’ t be surprised by who supports this .
It is clear this project has support in the halls of the corporate world and the American government .
The private company created to market this technology , that allows for biological processes to be controlled remotely and opens the door to the potential manipulation of our biological responses and , ultimately , our entire existence , is called Profusa Inc and its operations are funded with millions from NIH and DARPA .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ inserted into the crowded COVID-19 bazaar in March 2020 , when it announced an injectable biochip for the detection of viral respiratory diseases , including COVID-19 .
( Source ) The only obstacle is a delivery system , which though Moderna claims to be developing separately , is unlikely to get FDA approval before the federal government ’ s own DARPA-developed hydrogel technology , in tandem with Profusa ’ s DARPA-funded light sensor technology , which is expected to receive fast track authorization from the Food and Drug Administration by early 2021 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deploy a coronavirus vaccine with the capacity to literally change our DNA .
In addition , the Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS ) , is currently investigating Moderna ’ s patent filings , claiming it failed to disclose “ federal government support ” in its COVID vaccine candidate patent applications , as required by law .
The technicality could result in the federal government owning a 100 percent stake in mRNA-1273 .
( Source ) Take a microchip or face the consequences .
Activists and concerned citizens need to stop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and how they will refuse to be chipped when the time comes .
That time is now .
Soon , people all over the world are going to have a very difficult decision to make – take a microchip or face the consequences .
Judging by the amount of people walking around in masks during my trips to the supermarket , I ’ d say the odds are not in the favor of free humanity .
Most people will line up for it willingly .
Note : Listen to researcher Alan Watt of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a historical and analytical context here : What do you think ?
Do you believe that the microchip everyone has been worried about will be delivered via a COVID vaccine ?
Do you expect the vaccine to become mandatory ?
We ’ d love to hear your thoughts on this in the comments .

by Robert Wheeler
While half of the American voting public is no doubt waiting in earnest for the announcement of a release of the COVID vaccine and as totalitarian states and governments the world over attempt to require proof of negative tests before travel, a new tool in the shed of government surveillance and control is revealing itself.
RELATED: NBC News Thinks Getting Microchipped Sounds Super Convenient
The microchip has arrived.
While many are still attacking anyone warning of the “coming Microchip” as a conspiracy theorist, Luddite, or religious fanatic, that microchip has arrived.
But governments aren’t having to market the chip as a method to track, trace, and control their populations. Instead, they are marketing the chip as a way to track and detect COVID and other coronaviruses. Clearly, this is a much easier sell to a public literally terrorized by their governments and mainstream media outlets for the last six months.
Raul Diego details the creation and coming rollout of the new biochip in his article, “A DARPA-Funded Implantable Microchip to Detect COVID-19 Could Hit Markets By 2021,” where he writes,
The most significant scientific discovery since gravity has been hiding in plain sight for nearly a decade and its destructive potential to humanity is so enormous that the biggest war machine on the planet immediately deployed its vast resources to possess and control it, financing its research and development through agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and HHS’ BARDA. The revolutionary breakthrough came to a Canadian scientist named Derek Rossi in 2010 purely by accident. The now-retired Harvard professor claimed in an interview with the National Post that he found a way to “reprogram” the molecules that carry the genetic instructions for cell development in the human body, not to mention all biological lifeforms. These molecules are called ‘messenger ribonucleic acid’ or mRNA and the newfound ability to rewrite those instructions to produce any kind of cell within a biological organism has radically changed the course of Western medicine and science, even if no one has really noticed yet. As Rossi, himself, puts it: “The real important discovery here was you could now use mRNA, and if you got it into the cells, then you could get the mRNA to express any protein in the cells, and this was the big thing.” (Source)
Here’s what the technology can do
This new technology amounts to the remote control of biological processes.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Diego continues:
As early as 2006, DARPA was already researching how to identify viral, upper respiratory pathogens through its Predicting Health and Disease (PHD) program, which led to the creation of the agency’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO), as reported by Whitney Webb in a May article for The Last American Vagabond. In 2014, DARPA’s BTO launched its “In Vivo Nanoplatforms” (IVN) program, which researches implantable nanotechnologies, leading to the development of ‘hydrogel’. Hydrogel is a nanotechnology whose inventor early on boasted that “If [it] pans out, with approval from FDA, then consumers could get the sensors implanted in their core to measure their levels of glucose, oxygen, and lactate.” This contact lens-like material requires a special injector to be introduced under the skin where it can transmit light-based digital signals through a wireless network like 5G. Once firmly implanted inside the body, human cells are at the mercy of any mRNA program delivered via this substrate, unleashing a nightmare of possibilities. It is, perhaps, the first true step towards full-on transhumanism. (Source) Patrick Tucker of Defense One goes into a few more specifics of how the biochip works. He describes it as follows:
The sensor has two parts. One is a 3mm string of hydrogel , a material whose network of polymer chains is used in some contact lenses and other implants. Inserted under the skin with a syringe, the string includes a specially engineered molecule that sends a fluorescent signal outside of the body when the body begins to fight an infection. The other part is an electronic component attached to the skin. It sends light through the skin, detects the fluorescent signal and generates another signal that the wearer can send to a doctor, website, etc. It’s like a blood lab on the skin that can pick up the body’s response to illness before the presence of other symptoms, like coughing.
You won’t be surprised by who supports this. It is clear this project has support in the halls of the corporate world and the American government. The private company created to market this technology, that allows for biological processes to be controlled remotely and opens the door to the potential manipulation of our biological responses and, ultimately, our entire existence, is called Profusa Inc and its operations are funded with millions from NIH and DARPA. In March, the company was quietly inserted into the crowded COVID-19 bazaar in March 2020, when it announced an injectable biochip for the detection of viral respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. (Source) Diego writes, The only obstacle is a delivery system, which though Moderna claims to be developing separately, is unlikely to get FDA approval before the federal government’s own DARPA-developed hydrogel technology, in tandem with Profusa’s DARPA-funded light sensor technology, which is expected to receive fast track authorization from the Food and Drug Administration by early 2021 and, more than likely, used to deploy a coronavirus vaccine with the capacity to literally change our DNA. In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), is currently investigating Moderna’s patent filings, claiming it failed to disclose “federal government support” in its COVID vaccine candidate patent applications, as required by law. The technicality could result in the federal government owning a 100 percent stake in mRNA-1273. (Source) Take a microchip or face the consequences. Activists and concerned citizens need to stop talking about the “coming microchip” and how they will refuse to be chipped when the time comes. That time is now. Soon, people all over the world are going to have a very difficult decision to make – take a microchip or face the consequences. Judging by the amount of people walking around in masks during my trips to the supermarket, I’d say the odds are not in the favor of free humanity. Most people will line up for it willingly. Note: Listen to researcher Alan Watt of CuttingThroughTheMatrix.com discuss the biochip and much more in a historical and analytical context here: What do you think? Do you believe that the microchip everyone has been worried about will be delivered via a COVID vaccine? Do you expect the vaccine to become mandatory? We’d love to hear your thoughts on this in the comments.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--How Robert Mueller Corrupted the FBI

How Robert Mueller Corrupted the FBI

If you want to know how the FBI became seeded with so many deep state , anti American operatives then investigate Robert Mueller and his “ Five and Out ” policy .
Robert Mueller was appointed the FBI ’ s sixth director a week before the terror attacks on 9/11 .
As the FBI director , he implemented a policy that would remove experienced agents and replace them with “ nothing but “ yes ” men and women around the country working for him ” .
This includes Mueller ’ s protege , James Comey , “ Perhaps most revealing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , describing in detail a deep friendship that stretches back over a decade .
Mueller and Comey became “ close partners and close allies ” .
So close , “ there was only one person in government whom Comey could confide in and trust : Bob Mueller.
” ( Jarrett ) In federal law enforcement , it takes a new federal agent or supervisor about five years or so after arriving at a newly assigned office to gain the trust and respect of local law officers .
That trust and respect is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible .
Yet new FBI Director Robert Mueller came up with a new personnel policy that would rid the FBI of thousands of years of its most invaluable experience.In a nutshell , after an FBI employee was in any type of supervisory position for five years , he or she had to either come to Washington to sit at a desk or get out of the FBI .
In the myriad of FBI offices around the country , most agents love what they do in actively enforcing the law .
They have families @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enjoy their schools ; and they do not want to move to the high cost of living in Washington , DC , and especially not to an inside desk job .
What occurred around the country was that agents in charge of their local offices got out of the FBI and did something more lucrative .
Though they really wanted to stay in , they were not allowed to do so if they were not moving to DC .
Agents told me that it was not unusual for the Special Agent in Charge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 20 years of experience before the policy change .
Under Mueller ’ s policy that changed to new Special Agents in Charge having five to ten years of experience when they took over .
If the FBI Director wanted nothing but “ yes ” men and women around the country working for him , this was a great policy .
Newer agents are more likely to unquestioningly salute the FBI Mecca in Washington , and the Director , and never boldly offer a suggestion to fix a bad idea and Mueller had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasting millions of dollars on a software boondoggle or questionable personnel preferences , agents tell me Mueller did not want to hear from more experienced people voicing their concerns about his ideas or policies.An NPR report December 13 , 2007 , entitled , “ FBI ’ S ‘ Five-And-Out ’ Transfer Policy Draws Criticism ” dealt with the Mueller controversial policy : “ From the beginning of this year ( 2007 ) until the end of September ( 2007 ) , 576 agents found themselves in the five-and-out pool .
Less than half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; 150 decided to take a pay cut and a lesser job to stay put ; 135 retired ; and five resigned outright.
” In the period of nine months accounted for in this report , the FBI ran off a massive amount of absolutely priceless law enforcement experience vested in 140 invaluable agents .
For the vast part , those are the agents who have seen the mistakes , learned lessons , could advise newer agents on unseen pitfalls of investigations and pursuit of justice .
So many of these had at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The lessons learned by such seasoned agents were lost as the agents carried it with them when they left .
In the 2007 NPR report , the FBI Agents Association indicated that the Five-Year-Up-or-Out program hobbles field offices and takes relationships forged there for granted .
In other words , it was a terrible idea .
The incalculable experience loss damages the FBI by eliminating those in the field in a position to write to or meet with the FBI Director to advise him against some of the mounting judgment errors on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NPR article .
But this was not the only damage done… One other problem remained that will be discussed in more detail later in this article.Before Mueller became Director , FBI agents were trained to identify certain Muslims who had radicalized and become dangerous .
Mueller purged and even eliminated training that would have helped identify radical Islamic killers .
By running off the more experienced agents who had better training on radical Islam before Mueller , “ blinded us of the ability to identify our enemy , ” as I was told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victims in harm ’ s way in cities like Boston , San Diego and elsewhere… .
And this article from 2017 , : Are Mueller and Comey ‘ colluding ’ against Trump by acting as co-special counsel ?
… As I pointed out three weeks ago , the relationship between Mueller and Comey is not a casual one .
They are well known to be good friends and former colleagues who worked side-by-side at the FBI and Department of Justice handling together several important cases .
Agents quipped they were joined at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they stood in solidarity , both threatening to resign over the warrantless wiretapping fiasco involving then-Attorney General John Ashcroft in 2004 .
But the Comey-Mueller duo are best known for “ badly bungling the biggest case they ever handled ” together –the 2001 anthrax letters attacks that killed 5 people and infected 17 others in Washington in 2001 .
The story is well told by Carl M. Cannon , executive editor and Washington bureau chief of RealClearPolitics .
It appears that Mueller , Comey and others misinterpreted the evidence and botched the case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hatfill .
It ended up costing taxpayers roughly $ 5 million in a legal settlement .
Here is the interesting part that few people recall .
Hatfill ’ s successful lawsuit accused the FBI and DOJ of leaking information about him to the press in violation of the federal Privacy Act .
Sound familiar ?
That ’ s right , a leak .
Very much like Comey ’ s premeditated leak to the media of his now infamous memo reciting his alleged conversation with President Trump .
Perhaps , old habits are hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Washington Post published a story the day Mueller was appointed special counsel entitled , “ Brothers In Arms : The Long Friendship Between Mueller And Comey.
” But nowhere in the article does it venture toward the obvious –that their relationship presents a glaring and disqualifying conflict of interest .
So much for journalistic curiosity .
Perhaps most revealing is a lengthy Washingtonian story four years ago , describing in detail a deep friendship that stretches back over a decade .
Mueller and Comey became “ close partners and close allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was only one person in government whom Comey could confide in and trust : Bob Mueller.
” Against this backdrop , the inevitable conflict of interest comes into full view .
If the special counsel is investigating whether the president tried to obstruct justice , the case becomes a test of “ he said…he said.
” Which man will Mueller believe ?
His good friend or the man who fired his good friend ?
How can Mueller fairly and impartially assess Comey ’ s credibility versus Trump ’ s ?
He can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public be assured that Mueller ’ s decision is free of partiality , if not animus , driven by his personal affection for Comey ?
It is reasonable to assume that Mueller was not pleased to see his good friend fired by Trump .
Might the special counsel be tempted to exact retribution by conjuring criminality where none may exist ?
This is precisely why there are legal and ethical rules which demand recusal based on prior relationships… Rep. Gohmert grills Mueller : Did you know Strzok hated Trump ?
The following article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : ‘ KNOWN WOLF ’ TERROR SCANDAL : Of the 14 Attacks Under Obama , FBI Already Knew Attackers AT LEAST 12 Times BY PATRICK POOLE SEPTEMBER 29 , 2016 FBI Director James Comey was called out by Senator Rand Paul ( R-KY ) this week on the growing problem of what I have termed “ Known Wolf ” terrorism — an act of terror committed by someone already known to law enforcement .
…missed chances by the FBI might be America ’ s ONLY terror problem .
Virtually EVERY Islamic terror attack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ committed by a “ Known Wolf ” suspect .
Four such incidents already this year .
A dozen incidents during the Obama administration .
And lets not forget how Mueller let David Asimov off with only 6 mos house arrest : But Epstein ’ s not the only pedophile to get away from Mueller with a light sentence .
In 1998 , David Asimov ( son of famed science fiction author Isaac Asimov ) was arrested in California with the largest horde of child pornography ever discovered on US soil .
Asimov had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – some of it homemade – that police said they would never have enough man hours available to catalog all of it , let alone try to identify or locate the victims .
As the son of a famous author , Asimov was sentenced to six months of home confinement , a year of probation and a $ 200 fine .
The US Attorney prosecuting Asimov ’ s case allowed him to plead guilty to just two counts of “ possessing illegal images.
” And the US Attorney was ?
Robert Mueller , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days .
Straight-shooter Mueller certainly has encountered a lot of liberal pedophiles in his career – and they always seem to slip through his fingers .
Draw your own conclusions .
www.uspoliticsandnews.com/the-shadiest-plea-deals-in-robert-muellers-tarnished-career/ He ’ s definitely linked with the Bushs .
More info here on his origins , connections , corruption : The Darkside of Robert Mueller – Full Report and Documentary Recently uncovered court documents related to Special Counsel Robert Mueller ’ s time as FBI Director show his lack of anything resembling credibility .
The man who is responsible for investigating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ releasing deceptive statements that helped cover up a Saudi family ’ s involvement in the September 11 , 2001 terrorist attacks that shocked America and helped launch the modern surveillance state… FBI found direct ties between 9/11 hijackers and Saudis living in Florida ; Congress kept in dark A lot of good info here too – delves into 9/11 and also the close relationship that Mueller and Comey forged : PART TWO Most of what goes on in a legal case is private and never becomes public .
But sometimes a judge manages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gets to see .
And , furthermore , sometimes even the press gets to see , and even to report , things that don ’ t fit with a ‘ stellar ’ lawyer ’ s stellar reputation amongst the holders of power .
Mueller ’ s first big impact was obscure and little-reported at the time .
The Khobar Towers event was already four years in the past .
The rabidly pro-Saudi and anti-Iranian FBI Director Louis Freeh was retiring just when President George W. Bush was coming into office , and Freeh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the person to appoint Freeh ’ s replacement : James Comey .
That ’ s the very person whom Freeh had wanted to get the job .
It ’ s hardly possible to understand Rubert Mueller ’ s role in America ’ s leadership without understanding his close relationship with James Comey , the mutual-benefit-society that their association , with each other , has been , ever since 2001 .
On 30 May 2013 , Mueller ’ s worshipful biographer Garrett M. Graff headlined at The Washingtonian , “ Forged Under Fire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Unusual Friendship ” , and he reported how the two men , Mueller and Comey , had become bonded together at the start of 2001 , before 9/11 , by the retiring FBI Director Louis Freeh ’ s determination to place the blame for the 1996 Khobar Towers terrorist bombing in Saudi Arabia , on Iran , and not on Al Qaeda or the Saud family .
Graff wrote : … This is interesting – I didn ’ t know this ( Cabell , Bissell ) : Let me introduce you to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Robert Swann Mueller III .
Robert was born into the upper crust in our American class system .
At one point in his education in private schools John Kerry was a classmate .
( Kerry was also a fellow Bonesman with the Bushes . )
Mueller met his eventual bride , Ann Cabell Standish , at one of the dances they attended .
They married in 1966 , three years after John Kennedy ’ s assassination .
If you have read much about the JFK assassination you would recognize her middle name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been second in command at the CIA when John Kennedy was elected President .
In the aftermath of the Bay of Pigs fiasco , Kennedy fired three men from leadership positions at the CIA : Director Allen Dulles , Cabell and Richard Bissell .
Charles Cabell was Ann ’ s grandfather .
Her grand uncle , Earle Cabell , was the mayor of Dallas at the time of Kennedy ’ s murder there .
Recently declassified JFK documents revealed that Mayor Cabell was also an asset of the CIA at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Mueller married into the CIA , except that his great uncle was Richard Bissell .
So between his family and his wife ’ s family Mueller had two of the three people that Kennedy fired before he was assassinated by a “ lone nut ” , as well as the mayor who hosted the assassination .
The third man fired was Allen Dulles , who sat on the Warren Commission and managed to keep the CIA out of the investigation into JFK ’ s murder .
Perhaps Dulles was a guest at @ @

If you want to know how the FBI became seeded with so many deep state, anti American operatives then investigate Robert Mueller and his “Five and Out” policy. Robert Mueller was appointed the FBI’s sixth director a week before the terror attacks on 9/11. As the FBI director, he implemented a policy that would remove experienced agents and replace them with “nothing but “yes” men and women around the country working for him”.
This includes Mueller’s protege, James Comey, “Perhaps most revealing is a lengthy Washingtonian story four years ago, describing in detail a deep friendship that stretches back over a decade. Mueller and Comey became “close partners and close allies”. So close, “there was only one person in government whom Comey could confide in and trust: Bob Mueller.” (Jarrett)
Gohmert Mueller UNMASKED | Federal Bureau Of Investigation | United States Government
…
MUELLER’S FIVE YEAR UP-OR-OUT POLICY
In federal law enforcement, it takes a new federal agent or supervisor about five years or so after arriving at a newly assigned office to gain the trust and respect of local law officers. That trust and respect is absolutely critical to doing the best job possible. Yet new FBI Director Robert Mueller came up with a new personnel policy that would rid the FBI of thousands of years of its most invaluable experience.In a nutshell, after an FBI employee was in any type of supervisory position for five years,he or she had to either come to Washington to sit at a desk or get out of the FBI. In the myriad of FBI offices around the country, most agents love what they do in actively enforcing the law. They have families involved in the community; their kids enjoy their schools; and they do not want to move to the high cost of living in Washington, DC, and especially not to an inside desk job.
What occurred around the country was that agents in charge of their local offices got out of the FBI and did something more lucrative. Though they really wanted to stay in,they were not allowed to do so if they were not moving to DC. Agents told me that it was not unusual for the Special Agent in Charge of a field office to have well over 20 years of experience before the policy change. Under Mueller’s policy that changed to new Special Agents in Charge having five to ten years of experience when they took over.
If the FBI Director wanted nothing but “yes” men and women around the country working for him, this was a great policy. Newer agents are more likely to unquestioningly salute the FBI Mecca in Washington, and the Director, and never boldly offer a suggestion to fix a bad idea and Mueller had plenty of them. Whether it was wasting millions of dollars on a software boondoggle or questionable personnel preferences,agents tell me Mueller did not want to hear from more experienced people voicing their concerns about his ideas or policies.An NPR report December 13, 2007, entitled,
“FBI’S ‘Five-And-Out’ Transfer Policy Draws Criticism” dealt with the Mueller controversial policy:
“From the beginning of this year (2007) until the end of September(2007), 576 agents found themselves in the five-and-out pool. Less than half of them opted to go to headquarters; 150 decided to take a pay cut and a lesser job to stay put; 135 retired; and five resigned outright.”
In the period of nine months accounted for in this report, the FBI ran off a massive amount of absolutely priceless law enforcement experience vested in 140 invaluable agents. For the vast part, those are the agents who have seen the mistakes, learned lessons, could advise newer agents on unseen pitfalls of investigations and pursuit of justice. So many of these had at least 20-30 years of experience or more. The lessons learned by such seasoned agents were lost as the agents carried it with them when they left.
In the 2007 NPR report, the FBI Agents Association indicated that the Five-Year-Up-or-Out program hobbles field offices and takes relationships forged there for granted. In other words, it was a terrible idea.
The incalculable experience loss damages the FBI by eliminating those in the field in a position to write to or meet with the FBI Director to advise him against some of the mounting judgment errors on his part which were listed in the NPR article. But this was not the only damage done…
One other problem remained that will be discussed in more detail later in this article.Before Mueller became Director, FBI agents were trained to identify certain Muslims who had radicalized and become dangerous. Mueller purged and even eliminated training that would have helped identify radical Islamic killers. By running off the more experienced agents who had better training on radical Islam before Mueller, “blinded us of the ability to identify our enemy,” as I was told by some of them, Mueller put victims in harm’s way in cities like Boston, San Diego and elsewhere….
www.scribd.com/document/377409983/Gohmert-Mueller-UNMASKED
thewatchtowers.org/gohmert-mueller-unmasked-federal-bureau-of-investigation-united-states-government/
And this article from 2017,:
Are Mueller and Comey ‘colluding’ against Trump by acting as co-special counsel?
…
Mueller and Comey
As I pointed out three weeks ago, the relationship between Mueller and Comey is not a casual one. They are well known to be good friends and former colleagues who worked side-by-side at the FBI and Department of Justice handling together several important cases. Agents quipped they were joined at the hip.
In one memorable case, they stood in solidarity, both threatening to resign over the warrantless wiretapping fiasco involving then-Attorney General John Ashcroft in 2004.
But the Comey-Mueller duo are best known for “badly bungling the biggest case they ever handled” together –the 2001 anthrax letters attacks that killed 5 people and infected 17 others in Washington in 2001. The story is well told by Carl M. Cannon, executive editor and Washington bureau chief of RealClearPolitics.
It appears that Mueller, Comey and others misinterpreted the evidence and botched the case by fingering an innocent man, Steven Hatfill. It ended up costing taxpayers roughly $ 5 million in a legal settlement.
Here is the interesting part that few people recall. Hatfill’s successful lawsuit accused the FBI and DOJ of leaking information about him to the press in violation of the federal Privacy Act. Sound familiar? That’s right, a leak. Very much like Comey’s premeditated leak to the media of his now infamous memo reciting his alleged conversation with President Trump. Perhaps, old habits are hard to break.
As York points out, the Washington Post published a story the day Mueller was appointed special counsel entitled, “Brothers In Arms: The Long Friendship Between Mueller And Comey.” But nowhere in the article does it venture toward the obvious –that their relationship presents a glaring and disqualifying conflict of interest. So much for journalistic curiosity.
Perhaps most revealing is a lengthy Washingtonian story four years ago, describing in detail a deep friendship that stretches back over a decade. Mueller and Comey became “close partners and close allies”. So close, “there was only one person in government whom Comey could confide in and trust: Bob Mueller.”
Against this backdrop, the inevitable conflict of interest comes into full view. If the special counsel is investigating whether the president tried to obstruct justice, the case becomes a test of “he said…he said.” Which man will Mueller believe? His good friend or the man who fired his good friend? How can Mueller fairly and impartially assess Comey’s credibility versus Trump’s? He cannot.
Equally important, how can the public be assured that Mueller’s decision is free of partiality, if not animus, driven by his personal affection for Comey? It is reasonable to assume that Mueller was not pleased to see his good friend fired by Trump. Might the special counsel be tempted to exact retribution by conjuring criminality where none may exist? This is precisely why there are legal and ethical rules which demand recusal based on prior relationships…
www.foxnews.com/opinion/gregg-jarrett-are-mueller-and-comey-colluding-against-trump-by-acting-as-co-special-counsel
Rep. Gohmert grills Mueller: Did you know Strzok hated Trump?
The following article is linked in Gohmert’s report:
‘KNOWN WOLF’ TERROR SCANDAL: Of the 14 Attacks Under Obama, FBI Already Knew Attackers AT LEAST 12 Times
BY PATRICK POOLE SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
FBI Director James Comey was called out by Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) this week on the growing problem of what I have termed “Known Wolf” terrorism — an act of terror committed by someone already known to law enforcement.
…missed chances by the FBI might be America’s ONLY terror problem.
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Virtually EVERY Islamic terror attack under President Obama’s watch was committed by a “Known Wolf” suspect.
Four such incidents already this year. A dozen incidents during the Obama administration.
pjmedia.com/homeland-security/patrick-poole/2016/09/28/known-wolf-terrorism-a-dozen-cases-of-fbi-failure-on-obamas-watch-n94563
And lets not forget how Mueller let David Asimov off with only 6 mos house arrest:
The Shadiest Plea Deals In Robert Mueller’s Tarnished Career
…
But Epstein’s not the only pedophile to get away from Mueller with a light sentence. In 1998, David Asimov (son of famed science fiction author Isaac Asimov) was arrested in California with the largest horde of child pornography ever discovered on US soil.
Asimov had so much child porn in his possession – some of it homemade – that police said they would never have enough man hours available to catalog all of it, let alone try to identify or locate the victims.
As the son of a famous author, Asimov was sentenced to six months of home confinement, a year of probation and a $200 fine.
The US Attorney prosecuting Asimov’s case allowed him to plead guilty to just two counts of “possessing illegal images.” And the US Attorney was? Robert Mueller, of course, in his pre-FBI Director days.
Straight-shooter Mueller certainly has encountered a lot of liberal pedophiles in his career – and they always seem to slip through his fingers. Draw your own conclusions.
www.uspoliticsandnews.com/the-shadiest-plea-deals-in-robert-muellers-tarnished-career/
He’s definitely linked with the Bushs.
More info here on his origins, connections, corruption:
The Darkside of Robert Mueller – Full Report and Documentary
Huge, breaking Mueller news stories always escapes MSM.
This, from 2018:
Court Documents Show Mueller Involved in 9/11 Cover-up
Recently uncovered court documents related to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s time as FBI Director show his lack of anything resembling credibility. The man who is responsible for investigating allegations of Trump/Russia collusion was involved in releasing deceptive statements that helped cover up a Saudi family’s involvement in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that shocked America and helped launch the modern surveillance state…
thenewamerican.com/court-documents-show-mueller-involved-in-9-11-cover-up/
this
FBI found direct ties between 9/11 hijackers and Saudis living in Florida; Congress kept in dark
www.floridabulldog.org/2011/09/fbi-found-direct-ties-between-911-hijackers-and-saudis-living-in-florida-congress-kept-in-dark/
A lot of good info here too – delves into 9/11 and also the close relationship that Mueller and Comey forged:
Muellers Record of Framing Innocent People
…
PART TWO
Most of what goes on in a legal case is private and never becomes public. But sometimes a judge manages to see things that the public never gets to see. And, furthermore, sometimes even the press gets to see, and even to report, things that don’t fit with a ‘stellar’ lawyer’s stellar reputation amongst the holders of power.
Mueller’s first big impact was obscure and little-reported at the time. The Khobar Towers event was already four years in the past. The rabidly pro-Saudi and anti-Iranian FBI Director Louis Freeh was retiring just when President George W. Bush was coming into office, and Freeh chose Deputy Attorney General Robert Mueller to be the person to appoint Freeh’s replacement: James Comey. That’s the very person whom Freeh had wanted to get the job.
It’s hardly possible to understand Rubert Mueller’s role in America’s leadership without understanding his close relationship with James Comey, the mutual-benefit-society that their association, with each other, has been, ever since 2001.
On 30 May 2013, Mueller’s worshipful biographer Garrett M. Graff headlined at The Washingtonian, “Forged Under Fire — Bob Mueller and Jim Comey’s Unusual Friendship”, and he reported how the two men, Mueller and Comey, had become bonded together at the start of 2001, before 9/11, by the retiring FBI Director Louis Freeh’s determination to place the blame for the 1996 Khobar Towers terrorist bombing in Saudi Arabia, on Iran, and not on Al Qaeda or the Saud family. Graff wrote:…
off-guardian.org/2019/03/30/muellers-record-of-framing-innocent-people-part-one/
This is interesting – I didn’t know this (Cabell, Bissell):
Let me introduce you to the man of the hour in Washington, Robert Swann Mueller III. Robert was born into the upper crust in our American class system. At one point in his education in private schools John Kerry was a classmate. (Kerry was also a fellow Bonesman with the Bushes.) Mueller met his eventual bride, Ann Cabell Standish, at one of the dances they attended. They married in 1966, three years after John Kennedy’s assassination. If you have read much about the JFK assassination you would recognize her middle name. Her grandfather, Charles Cabell, had been second in command at the CIA when John Kennedy was elected President. In the aftermath of the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Kennedy fired three men from leadership positions at the CIA: Director Allen Dulles, Cabell and Richard Bissell. Charles Cabell was Ann’s grandfather. Her grand uncle, Earle Cabell, was the mayor of Dallas at the time of Kennedy’s murder there. Recently declassified JFK documents revealed that Mayor Cabell was also an asset of the CIA at the time. Small world. You could say that Mueller married into the CIA, except that his great uncle was Richard Bissell. So between his family and his wife’s family Mueller had two of the three people that Kennedy fired before he was assassinated by a “lone nut”, as well as the mayor who hosted the assassination. The third man fired was Allen Dulles, who sat on the Warren Commission and managed to keep the CIA out of the investigation into JFK’s murder. Perhaps Dulles was a guest at the wedding…
caucus99percent.com/content/what-mueller-wont-find
h/t ElleMira


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Josh Hawley absolutely DESTROYS former FBI Director, James Comey 09/30/20

Look at Slow Joe ’ s face when POTUS Trump mentions the Idea for the Logan Act against General Flynn @ @ @ @ @ He is guilty as hell .
Ted Cruz also points out Comey is a lying @ @ @

Related:
Look at Slow Joe’s face when POTUS Trump mentions the Idea for the Logan Act against General Flynn and you where caught. He is guilty as hell.
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Ted Cruz also points out Comey is a lying dirt bag!
JADR


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Trump Wins Debate Big, Voters Turning Red, Economy Needs Help

Despite the unfairness of the debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden , Trump still destroyed Dem candidate @ @ @ @ @ the fact that moderator Chris Wallace was also debating President Trump on behalf of Biden @ @ @ @ @ s microphone was noticeably turned down compared to Biden and Wallace .
There is no @ @ @ @ @ can go back and listen to it and measure it on a meter .
This @ @ @ @ @ stupid , and it is simply a dirty trick to try subtly minimize Trump in @ @ @ @ @ also speculation that Biden got the questions ahead of time and that he had help @ @ @ @ @ special contact lenses that would act as a teleprompter .
This may or may not @ @ @ @ @ cares .
Trump won and Biden got beat .

Despite the unfairness of the debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden, Trump still destroyed Dem candidate Biden. This was despite the fact that moderator Chris Wallace was also debating President Trump on behalf of Biden. Also, Trump’s microphone was noticeably turned down compared to Biden and Wallace. There is no doubt about this as you can go back and listen to it and measure it on a meter. This is too stupid to be stupid, and it is simply a dirty trick to try subtly minimize Trump in the debate. There is also speculation that Biden got the questions ahead of time and that he had help by wearing an earpiece and special contact lenses that would act as a teleprompter. This may or may not be true, but who cares. Trump won and Biden got beat.
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usawatchdog.com/trump-wins-debate-big-voters-turning-red-economy-need-help/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsaWatchdog+%28Greg+Hunter’s+USAWatchdog%29


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--VIDEO: The Melania Tapes in Context – They May Make You Like Melania Trump Even More

VIDEO : The Melania Tapes in Context – They May Make You Like Melania Trump Even More

VIDEO: The Melania Tapes in Context – They May Make You Like
Melania Trump Even More
Part 1:
streamable.com/cczlcy
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Part 2:
streamable.com/v5x29u
h/t dr0id


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Paris at risk of total lockdown as COVID-19 cases rise

Paris is in danger of going back into lockdown next week after the French government said the coronavirus pandemic was @ @ @ @ @ “ Since yesterday , in the last 24 hours , Paris has passed the threshold @ @ @ @ @ the maximum alert category , ” French minister of Health Olivier Véran said Thursday evening @ @ @ @ @ maximum alert ” threshold is reached when the incidence rate reaches 250 per 100,000 people @ @ @ @ @ of intensive care beds are occupied by coronavirus patients , and the rate among the @ @ @ @ @ .
The Paris region had already fulfilled the last two criteria .

Paris is in danger of going back into lockdown next week after the French government said the coronavirus pandemic was worsening in the capital.
“Since yesterday, in the last 24 hours, Paris has passed the threshold that would put it in the maximum alert category,” French minister of Health Olivier Véran said Thursday evening.
France’s “maximum alert” threshold is reached when the incidence rate reaches 250 per 100,000 people, at least 30% of intensive care beds are occupied by coronavirus patients, and the rate among the elderly passes 100 per 100,000.
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The Paris region had already fulfilled the last two criteria.
edition.cnn.com/2020/10/02/europe/paris-lockdown-coronavirus-europe-intl/index.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Biden’s drugs are wearing off

Biden’s drugs are wearing off

“ This is a guy who ’ d , you know , let you park your cars where I come @ @ @ @ @ Greensburg and uh park it your cars at their parking I- in their country club @ @ @ @ @ ” Joe Biden

“This is a guy who’d, you know, let you park your cars where I come from and right here in Greensburg and uh park it your cars at their parking I- in their country club and never le you join” Joe Biden
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Supa


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Yahoo News: “Game 1 of NBA Finals sees lowest viewership in recorded ratings history”

Why are the NBA ’ s ratings down ?
News of the NBA ’ s ratings struggles will undoubtedly be @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump , who has previously attributed the league ’ s lagging viewership to its @ @ @ @ @

Why are the NBA’s ratings down?
News of the NBA’s ratings struggles will undoubtedly be
received with glee from President Donald Trump, who has
previously attributed the league’s lagging viewership to its
protests against racial injustice.
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sports.yahoo.com/game-1-nba-finals-lakers-heat-ratings-low-abc-225636681.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--ALERT: The whole White House has been exposed and must be quarantined! Markets brace for Covid strik

ALERT: The whole White House has been exposed and must be quarantined! Markets brace for Covid strike

U.S. stock futures and European equities fall after Trump tests positive for coronavirus “ This is potentially a strong market @ @ @ @ @ to my mind is has COVID-19 spread to the upper echelons of the U.S. government @ @ @ @ @ It has the potential to bring to a halt any ongoing talks over fiscal stimulus @ @ @ @ @ Jeffrey Halley , senior market analyst , Asia Pacific OANDA .

"Hicks was seen on Tuesday riding maskless in a staff van with White House senior adviser Stephen Miller, campaign adviser Jason Miller and others. When they returned to Washington on Tuesday, Stephen Miller and Hicks were seen sharing an umbrella as they exited Air Force One." t.co/pIOPiwl1Bv — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 2, 2020
Some people close to Hicks were told that she is experiencing symptoms of the disease.t.co/9E0Ffp8dom — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 2, 2020
Few in the WhiteHouse are closer to President Trump than Hope Hicks, a top aide who has tested positive for coronavirus. She regularly travels with Trump, like she did to Cleveland this week and again yesterday. Here she is boarding Marine One with Kushner and others yesterday. pic.twitter.com/XMd86C6pwh — Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) October 2, 2020
Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020
BREAKING – Ronna McDaniel, the RNC chairwoman, tested positive for the coronavirus on Wednesday, multiple sources say. She has mild symptoms. She was last with POTUS last Friday and has been in Michigan since then. — Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 2, 2020
Markets Brace for Covid Strike
U.S. stock futures and European equities fall after Trump tests positive for coronavirus
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“This is potentially a strong market negative. The key issue to my mind is has COVID-19 spread to the upper echelons of the U.S. government including the Senate leadership? It has the potential to bring to a halt any ongoing talks over fiscal stimulus for example,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific OANDA.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Hillary Clinotn TRASHES Trump on MSNBC but Doesn’t Mention Her Own BOMBSHELL Report

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports , Bitter loser Hillary Clinton trashed President Trump on Tuesday evening ahead of @ @ @ @ @ Hillary Clinton looked rough during her virtual interview with MSNBC host Rachel Maddow .

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports, Bitter loser Hillary Clinton trashed President Trump on Tuesday evening ahead of the first presidential debate. Hillary Clinton looked rough during her virtual interview with MSNBC host Rachel Maddow.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Donald Trump Tests Positive for Covid-19 – “Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19”

Tonight , @ FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19 .
We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately @ @ @ @ @ this TOGETHER !

Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--Time for a real change. Lets put a rest to the left/right bitch fit, and finally accept that both of

Time for a real change. Lets put a rest to the left/right bitch fit, and finally accept that both of the candidates we’ve been offered are merely corporate puppets, and do not have our best interests at heart.

The divisive rhetoric from the MSM will be cranked up the next few weeks .
On the surface , it @ @ @ @ @ ’ s this great battle between two “ teams ” , but in reality it @ @ @ @ @ WWE style drama , solely for the purpose of stirring the pot and creating animosity @ @ @ @ @ , to keep them divided and controllable .

by mistasway
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The divisive rhetoric from the MSM will be cranked up the next few weeks. On the surface, it will appear as if there’s this great battle between two “teams”, but in reality it’s basically this scripted WWE style drama, solely for the purpose of stirring the pot and creating animosity and tension among the public, to keep them divided and controllable.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--For every single Corona death there are 3 heart disease deaths. Heart disease is the real pandemic a

For every single Corona death there are 3 heart disease deaths. Heart disease is the real pandemic and ironically its almost completely preventable.

The real pandemic isnt covid , its heart disease , which kills 600k+ Americans every year .
The real cure @ @ @ @ @ a clean diet and consistent exercise over your life time .
The conspiracy is that @ @ @ @ @ the world has ever seen .
I posted the image from the CDC website to @ @ @ @

The real pandemic isnt covid, its heart disease, which kills 600k+ Americans every year. The real cure isnt a vaccine, its a clean diet and consistent exercise over your life time. The conspiracy is that covid is the biggest misdirection the world has ever seen. I posted the image from the CDC website to show my point.
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h/t walnut94


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-02--After the debate, YouTube terminated accounts that uploaded translated versions of Ukrainian PMs Pre

After the debate, YouTube terminated accounts that uploaded translated versions of Ukrainian PMs Press Conference leaking audio tapes of Bidens corruption.

Name : andriy derkach Original links to translated press conference ( separate channels , both deleted )

Name: andriy derkach Original links to translated press conference (separate channels, both deleted)
Untranslated version:
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Audio clips:
h/t Halaxy9000


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-04--Government’s Own Jobs Report puts Number of Unemployed at about 32% in September

This Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) released it ’ s monthly employment report .
I ’ ve long had a problem with the numbers this government agency puts out .
Over the years they have been brazenly manipulated and much of the data it purports to show isn ’ t much more than a glorified guess .
The report is made up of at least two elements ; first the household survey from which it gets the official unemployment rate ( 7.9 % for September ) and second a so-called establishment survey .
The first is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in person or telephone survey of US households compiled to figure out what proportion of workers in the labor force are employed .
By contrast the establishment survey is a combination survey and guesstimate .
The first element surveys about 144,000 business establishments and government agencies compared to the about 32,500,000 businesses that used to be estimated to exist in the US ; collecting data on numbers of workers at each firm , their hours worked and earnings .
The second element is essentially a fancy formula used to guess at the number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the unsuryed segment of the economy .
( Note : It is likely the number of surveyed firms has also declined with the downturn . )
From here the BLS comes up with an average number of jobs created or destroyed with all of these firms , giving us by far the biggest part of this figure in this survey .
( +661,000 in September ) .
But these numbers don ’ t capture the whole picture .
First because they only survey workers considered in the labor force as noted above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of work for a period considered too long by the government and whos unemployment benefits have run out are no longer counted as unemployed , which affects the laborforce participation rate ( at 61.4 % for September ) .
According to this segment of the report the leisure and hospitality sector contributed the most to the month ’ s job gains ( +318,000 ) .
This was followed by the retail trade ( +142,000 ) , 40,000 of which was in food services and drinking places .
This may reflect some element @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of small businesses nationwide , which include many eateries and most bars , are still shutdown .
Next came the retail trade ( +142,000 ) followed by health care and social assitance ( +108,000 ) .
Employment fell in government ( -216,000 ) , private education ( -69,000 ) , and was little changed in mining ( +1,000 ) .
Second all data in this report is SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ; which sounds like a means to take seasonal factors into account when calculating its data , but ts really a practice by which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data to .
Any deviation above the average is considered growth while any deviation below this average is considered a contraction .
The downside to this is that it can misrepresent the actual situation .
Say the economy ’ s been in a slump for a prolonged period and the average of jobs lost each month is -300,000 .
Then any number above -300,000 , even if still negative at say -100,000 , because it ’ s above the long-run average is still counted as a positive number with 200,000 jobs created in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were really -400,000 for a given month it would be ADJUSTED to a loss of merely -100,000 .
The same goes for positive numbers ; with an average of +300,000 jobs a month any number above that , say +400,000 , is ADJUSTED to show a positive 100,000 , while anything below that is considered negative .
For example +200,000 jobs a month is actually ADJUSTED TO A -100,000 .
The same sort of averaging also applies to the unemployment rate and all other economic date from the government .
So we can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is .
Additionally this month the BLS reported that “ [ t ] he collection [ i.e .
response ] rate for the establishment survey was 70 percent in September , 5 percentage points lower than the average for the 12 months ending in February 2020 .
The household survey is generally conducted through in-person and telephone interviews .
However , for the safety of both interviewers and respondents , in-person interviews were conducted only when telephone interviews could not be done .
The household survey response rate was 79 percent in August @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 65 percent in June but below the average rate of 83 percent for the 12 months ending in February 2020.
” ( September BLS Report pg.6 ) So the data that gives us the official unemployment rate , while flawed , is also incomplete .
A question that arises given this quote is why the reponse rate for the August Household Survey is given insread of that for September .
Is this a clerical error or is September ’ s response rate lower than they ’ d like to admit ?
Meanwhile ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survey interviewers have been instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary , coronavirus-related business closures or cutbacks as unemployed on temporary layoff .
BLS and Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest there still may be some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff .
However , the share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in July , August , and September than in prior months.
” “ For March through August , BLS published an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been had misclassified workers been included .
Repeating this same approach , the overall September unemployment rate would have been 0.4 percentage point higher than reported .
However , this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.
” ( September BLS Report pg .
6 ) A better if still imperfect measure of the jobs situation can be found in a measure in the BLS report called the Employment-Population Ratio .
This number , if still seasonally adjusted , tries to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a job to the entire working age population of the United States .
Unfortunately it fails to take into account the number of say stay at home mothers , who actually are not in the labor force , but in our modern world this is such a rarity that statistically it shouldn ’ t impact the overall data too much .
However neither does it take into account the number of retirees .
This is easily corrected by finding what percent of the population is retired and subtracting it from the remaining number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this month ’ s BLS report the EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO IS A SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 56.6 ( +0.1 in September ) .
THAT MEANS 43.4 % OF PEOPLE 22 AND OLDER ARE WITHOUT A JOB .
IF WE SUBTRACT THE ABOUT 14 % OF THE POPULATION THAT RECEIVES SOCIAL SECURITY WE GET A RATE OF JOBLESSNESS AT 29.4 % .
Though this figure isn ’ t modified to count disabled adults who ’ d like to work , elder workers collecting Social Security but who still have to work , or people who really aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Social Security rolls during the Great Recession to keep them out of the unemployment figures .
WHEN WE CONSIDER ALL THESE PEOPLE THE ACTUAL REMAINDER FROM THE EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO IS PROBABLY NEARER 32.4 .
THAT IS TO SAY ABOUT 33 % OF WORKING AGE AMERICANS ARE WITHOUT A JOB .
This is a far cry from the 7.9 % unemployment rate reported by the government .
Below is a link to this month ’ s employment report for any that are interested .
www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

by Aegidius25
This Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released it’s monthly employment report. I’ve long had a problem with the numbers this government agency puts out. Over the years they have been brazenly manipulated and much of the data it purports to show isn’t much more than a glorified guess. The report is made up of at least two elements; first the household survey from which it gets the official unemployment rate (7.9% for September) and second a so-called establishment survey.
The first is just what it sounds like, an in person or telephone survey of US households compiled to figure out what proportion of workers in the labor force are employed. By contrast the establishment survey is a combination survey and guesstimate. The first element surveys about 144,000 business establishments and government agencies compared to the about 32,500,000 businesses that used to be estimated to exist in the US; collecting data on numbers of workers at each firm, their hours worked and earnings. The second element is essentially a fancy formula used to guess at the number of new business establishments created or destroyed in the unsuryed segment of the economy. (Note: It is likely the number of surveyed firms has also declined with the downturn.)
From here the BLS comes up with an average number of jobs created or destroyed with all of these firms, giving us by far the biggest part of this figure in this survey. (+661,000 in September). But these numbers don’t capture the whole picture. First because they only survey workers considered in the labor force as noted above. This means workers who have been out of work for a period considered too long by the government and whos unemployment benefits have run out are no longer counted as unemployed, which affects the laborforce participation rate (at 61.4% for September).
According to this segment of the report the leisure and hospitality sector contributed the most to the month’s job gains (+318,000). This was followed by the retail trade (+142,000), 40,000 of which was in food services and drinking places. This may reflect some element of reality as only about a third of small businesses nationwide, which include many eateries and most bars, are still shutdown. Next came the retail trade (+142,000) followed by health care and social assitance (+108,000). Employment fell in government (-216,000), private education (-69,000), and was little changed in mining (+1,000).
Second all data in this report is SEASONALLY ADJUSTED; which sounds like a means to take seasonal factors into account when calculating its data, but ts really a practice by which they create long-run averages to compare current data to. Any deviation above the average is considered growth while any deviation below this average is considered a contraction. The downside to this is that it can misrepresent the actual situation. Say the economy’s been in a slump for a prolonged period and the average of jobs lost each month is -300,000. Then any number above -300,000, even if still negative at say -100,000, because it’s above the long-run average is still counted as a positive number with 200,000 jobs created in this scenario. While if the number were really -400,000 for a given month it would be ADJUSTED to a loss of merely -100,000. The same goes for positive numbers; with an average of +300,000 jobs a month any number above that, say +400,000, is ADJUSTED to show a positive 100,000, while anything below that is considered negative. For example +200,000 jobs a month is actually ADJUSTED TO A -100,000. The same sort of averaging also applies to the unemployment rate and all other economic date from the government. So we can see how unreliable much of this data is.
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Additionally this month the BLS reported that “[t]he collection [i.e. response] rate for the establishment survey was 70 percent in September, 5 percentage points lower than the average for the 12 months ending in February 2020. The household survey is generally conducted through in-person and telephone interviews. However, for the safety of both interviewers and respondents, in-person interviews were conducted only when telephone interviews could not be done. The household survey response rate was 79 percent in August, considerably higher than the low of 65 percent in June but below the average rate of 83 percent for the 12 months ending in February 2020.” (September BLS Report pg.6) So the data that gives us the official unemployment rate, while flawed, is also incomplete. A question that arises given this quote is why the reponse rate for the August Household Survey is given insread of that for September. Is this a clerical error or is September’s response rate lower than they’d like to admit?
Meanwhile ”[s]ince March, household survey interviewers have been instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related business closures or cutbacks as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest there still may be some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, the share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in July, August, and September than in prior months.”
“For March through August, BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate would have been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this same approach, the overall September unemployment rate would have been 0.4 percentage point higher than reported. However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.” (September BLS Report pg. 6)
A better if still imperfect measure of the jobs situation can be found in a measure in the BLS report called the Employment-Population Ratio. This number, if still seasonally adjusted, tries to compare the actual number of people with a job to the entire working age population of the United States. Unfortunately it fails to take into account the number of say stay at home mothers, who actually are not in the labor force, but in our modern world this is such a rarity that statistically it shouldn’t impact the overall data too much. However neither does it take into account the number of retirees. This is easily corrected by finding what percent of the population is retired and subtracting it from the remaining number of people without a job. In this month’s BLS report the EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO IS A SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 56.6 (+0.1 in September). THAT MEANS 43.4% OF PEOPLE 22 AND OLDER ARE WITHOUT A JOB. IF WE SUBTRACT THE ABOUT 14% OF THE POPULATION THAT RECEIVES SOCIAL SECURITY WE GET A RATE OF JOBLESSNESS AT 29.4%.
Though this figure isn’t modified to count disabled adults who’d like to work, elder workers collecting Social Security but who still have to work, or people who really aren’t disabled but added to the Social Security rolls during the Great Recession to keep them out of the unemployment figures. WHEN WE CONSIDER ALL THESE PEOPLE THE ACTUAL REMAINDER FROM THE EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO IS PROBABLY NEARER 32.4. THAT IS TO SAY ABOUT 33% OF WORKING AGE AMERICANS ARE WITHOUT A JOB. This is a far cry from the 7.9% unemployment rate reported by the government.
Below is a link to this month’s employment report for any that are interested. www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-04--HOUSE COVID BILL INCLUDES 12 MONTH COMPLETE BAN ON EVICTIONS AND FORECLOSURES.

Well , that did n't take long… .
No evictions Now I know why Buffett sold his Well Fargo

HOUSE COVID BILL INCLUDES 12 MONTH COMPLETE BAN ON EVICTIONS AND FORECLOSURES. t.co/d0Yh3q4URt
Well, that didn't take long….
No evictions
Now I know why Buffett sold his Well Fargo
Boom 😉🎁@DiMartinoBooth @frugalprofblog @GaryKaltbaum $wfc #banks
— Reminiscences of an American Capitalist (@4Awesometweet) October 3, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-04--This Stat May Make You Rethink The Economic Recovery

Before we get into the details of the jobless claims report , remember that California ’ s data didn ’ t update because the state didn ’ t accept unemployment claims .
That will be the same for next week .
Technically , you can argue claims will be higher than normal in these 2 reports because the labor market is improving , but California ’ s data is stuck .
It will be interesting to see how much of a backlog forms as a result of not accepting people .
There might be an increase in claims in California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accepting claim applicants again .
In the week of September 26th , there were 837,000 seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims which was down from 873,000 and was 13,000 below estimates .
We ’ re focused more on the non-seasonally adjusted data of course .
NSA claims fell from 827,000 to 787,000 which is a new expansion low .
The rate of decline in initial claims has come down which makes sense because it ’ s much closer to approaching normalcy than continued claims .
For example , in the last recession , NSA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started the expansion ( in 2009 ) at 581,000 .
We are now below that peak and nearing the start of the last expansion .
On the other hand , SA continued claims are now at 11.767 million which is almost double the previous recession peak of 6.635 million ( also the last week of the recession ) .
The last recovery started the moment continued claims started falling .
If that ’ s the case , this expansion started mid-May .
This recession lasted a few weeks , but it packed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 616,000 to 650,000 .
Because of that increase , when combined with initial claims , the total had no change from the prior week as the chart above shows .
Because California and Arizona likely have many inaccuracies and represent a large portion of PUAs , it ’ s a flawed data point .
California ’ s PUAs couldn ’ t fall this week because the data wasn ’ t updated .
Maybe , when the data is updated in 2 weeks , we will see PUAs fall in the state .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ which brought it to 220,156 which doesn ’ t make any sense given its small population .
Arizona ’ s increase represented almost half of the weekly rise .
Furthermore , the state represents 34 % of total national PUAs even though it only has 2.2 % of the population .
That ’ s why we can ’ t take the PUA numbers at face value .
Continued claims fell 980,000 in the week of September 19th .
They were down from 12.747 million to 11.767 million .
That was the biggest weekly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Keep in mind , some people are starting to exhaust their unemployment benefits because they last 26 weeks .
People are being transferred to pandemic claims and extended benefits .
The chart above shows the endless spike in continued claims via those two programs .
Their total exceeded 2 million for the first time .
This shows the ugly underbelly of the COVID-19 economy in which some industries haven ’ t made it in the new economy where social distancing is important .
We can ’ t have a fully viable economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind that PUA and PEUC benefits expire in December which means there will be a wave of millions of people losing their benefits if a stimulus which extends those benefits isn ’ t passed .
We are still awaiting Abbott ’ s new rapid tests to be fully deployed to help limit the spread and open the hardest hit areas of the economy .
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi have been trying to negotiate a stimulus plan .
The President testing positive for COVID-19 definitely changes the dynamics of the negotiations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion spending package , but that plan likely won ’ t pass the Senate – it ’ s pure theater .
The best economic stimulus would be a vaccine , better treatment , and better testing for COVID-19 .
Until we have that , the bottom quarter of the population is going to be in rough shape .
The previous stimulus was the timeliest , most successful fiscal spending plan in American history .
That doesn ’ t mean the government can back away from the problem now .
As you can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lowest earnings workers to take the biggest hit in terms of job losses .
In the 1990 recession , low wage jobs actually outperformed ; in the following two recessions , low wage workers only moderately underperformed .
This recession is different because the leisure and hospitality industry has been hurt by the virus the most and it employs the lowest wage workers .
The August PCE report showed the damage from the decline in unemployment benefits .
As you can see from the chart below , the decline in benefits wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in compensation .
Furthermore , compensation growth was the lowest in 4 months .
Compensation is more sustainable , but it can ’ t save the economy in the near term because so many people can ’ t go back to work normally .
This weakness in benefits and compensation caused personal income to fall 2.7 % and disposable income to fall 3.2 % .
However , spending actually increased 1 % because the savings rate declined .
This is likely because many upper income people were more comfortable with spending money .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 14.1 % .
We doubt many low income people have enough extra money to save that much .
That being said , they probably did save less than July because of the decline in benefits .
The unemployment claims report was good in that NSA claims fell .
Don ’ t be fooled into thinking we are out of the woods though as continued claims are almost double the peak in the last recession .
Furthermore , if you include pandemic programs and extended benefits , the total is more than double @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The COVID-19 recession has hurt low income jobs the most .
That ’ s why we need a stimulus so desperately .
The August PCE report wasn ’ t great because the decline in benefits sunk incomes .
Spending can ’ t grow this much faster than income for much longer .
The savings rate dropped severely , but it ’ s still historically high .

by UPFINA
Before we get into the details of the jobless claims report, remember that California’s data didn’t update because the state didn’t accept unemployment claims. That will be the same for next week. Technically, you can argue claims will be higher than normal in these 2 reports because the labor market is improving, but California’s data is stuck. It will be interesting to see how much of a backlog forms as a result of not accepting people. There might be an increase in claims in California in the first week the state starts accepting claim applicants again.
In the week of September 26th, there were 837,000 seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims which was down from 873,000 and was 13,000 below estimates. We’re focused more on the non-seasonally adjusted data of course. NSA claims fell from 827,000 to 787,000 which is a new expansion low.
Last wk, workers filed 787K UI initial claims + 650K PUA claims = another 1.4 million claims NSA total#joblessclaims were largely unchanged from last wk as the decline in UI claims was offset by the continuing increase in PUA claims (driven by unusual surges in AZ & PR) 1/ pic.twitter.com/kc0wgDgmPa — Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) October 1, 2020
The rate of decline in initial claims has come down which makes sense because it’s much closer to approaching normalcy than continued claims. For example, in the last recession, NSA initial claims peaked at 957,000 and they started the expansion (in 2009) at 581,000. We are now below that peak and nearing the start of the last expansion. On the other hand, SA continued claims are now at 11.767 million which is almost double the previous recession peak of 6.635 million (also the last week of the recession). The last recovery started the moment continued claims started falling. If that’s the case, this expansion started mid-May. This recession lasted a few weeks, but it packed a powerful punch.
PUA jobless claims rose from 616,000 to 650,000. Because of that increase, when combined with initial claims, the total had no change from the prior week as the chart above shows. Because California and Arizona likely have many inaccuracies and represent a large portion of PUAs, it’s a flawed data point. California’s PUAs couldn’t fall this week because the data wasn’t updated. Maybe, when the data is updated in 2 weeks, we will see PUAs fall in the state. Arizona had a 15,468 increase in PUAs which brought it to 220,156 which doesn’t make any sense given its small population. Arizona’s increase represented almost half of the weekly rise. Furthermore, the state represents 34% of total national PUAs even though it only has 2.2% of the population. That’s why we can’t take the PUA numbers at face value.
Continued Claims Fall, But Pandemic Claims Rise
Continued claims fell 980,000 in the week of September 19th. They were down from 12.747 million to 11.767 million. That was the biggest weekly decline since the third week of August. Keep in mind, some people are starting to exhaust their unemployment benefits because they last 26 weeks. People are being transferred to pandemic claims and extended benefits.
The chart above shows the endless spike in continued claims via those two programs. Their total exceeded 2 million for the first time. This shows the ugly underbelly of the COVID-19 economy in which some industries haven’t made it in the new economy where social distancing is important. We can’t have a fully viable economy until COVID-19 is vanquished. Keep in mind that PUA and PEUC benefits expire in December which means there will be a wave of millions of people losing their benefits if a stimulus which extends those benefits isn’t passed. We are still awaiting Abbott’s new rapid tests to be fully deployed to help limit the spread and open the hardest hit areas of the economy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
2020 Recession Hits Differently
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi have been trying to negotiate a stimulus plan. The President testing positive for COVID-19 definitely changes the dynamics of the negotiations. The House passed a $2.2 trillion spending package, but that plan likely won’t pass the Senate – it’s pure theater.
The best economic stimulus would be a vaccine, better treatment, and better testing for COVID-19. Until we have that, the bottom quarter of the population is going to be in rough shape. The previous stimulus was the timeliest, most successful fiscal spending plan in American history. That doesn’t mean the government can back away from the problem now.
'The economic collapse sparked by the pandemic is triggering the most unequal recession in modern U.S. history.' t.co/idsOslPtYZ ht @Peter_Atwater pic.twitter.com/Xtwq4gGk0w — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 1, 2020
As you can see from the charts above, COVID-19 caused the lowest earnings workers to take the biggest hit in terms of job losses. In the 1990 recession, low wage jobs actually outperformed; in the following two recessions, low wage workers only moderately underperformed. This recession is different because the leisure and hospitality industry has been hurt by the virus the most and it employs the lowest wage workers.
August PCE Update
The August PCE report showed the damage from the decline in unemployment benefits. As you can see from the chart below, the decline in benefits wasn’t even close to the increase in compensation. Furthermore, compensation growth was the lowest in 4 months. Compensation is more sustainable, but it can’t save the economy in the near term because so many people can’t go back to work normally.
Personal income fell 2.7% in August as the weakest gain in compensation in 4 months was offset by a sharp reduction in gov transfers to households – reflecting the partial expiry of unemployment benefits. Disposable income fell 3.2% while real disposable income decreased 3.5% pic.twitter.com/D5qwrJvMk5 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) October 1, 2020
This weakness in benefits and compensation caused personal income to fall 2.7% and disposable income to fall 3.2%. However, spending actually increased 1% because the savings rate declined. This is likely because many upper income people were more comfortable with spending money. The savings rate fell from 17.7% to 14.1%. We doubt many low income people have enough extra money to save that much. That being said, they probably did save less than July because of the decline in benefits.
Conclusion
The unemployment claims report was good in that NSA claims fell. Don’t be fooled into thinking we are out of the woods though as continued claims are almost double the peak in the last recession. Furthermore, if you include pandemic programs and extended benefits, the total is more than double the peak in the 2007-09 recession. The COVID-19 recession has hurt low income jobs the most. That’s why we need a stimulus so desperately. The August PCE report wasn’t great because the decline in benefits sunk incomes. Spending can’t grow this much faster than income for much longer. The savings rate dropped severely, but it’s still historically high.