investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Peter Zeihan on China, Coronavirus Recovery and the Economic Impact of a Second Wave

Peter Zeihan recently told FS Insider listeners why he doesn ’ t trust any of the data coming from China and why he expects they have a hard political and economic crash ahead of them .
He also shared his thoughts on what the economic recovery from the coronavirus will look like for the U.S. and which industries will be hit the hardest .
Read below for excerpts from his interview on FS Insider .
If you ’ re not already a subscriber , click here .
See China Preparing for a Hard Economic Crash , Says Peter Zeihan for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the situation at present ?
Well , we know for sure that the virus is at least three times as communicable as the flu .
And we know that one in five cases results in hospitalization , or at least that ’ s our best understanding right now .
That tells us until we get a vaccine in fall at the absolute earliest , or until we get a functional treatment that can be mass produced , which we don ’ t have right now , the best that we can hope for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system up to at least a million cases a day .
That would allow us to test beyond the hospitals and if we can achieve that , then we can start getting back to normal by September .
That might be overly optimistic .
When we kind of peek out from under our rocks and stop the stay at home orders , you ’ ll have the virus start to pop up in additional cities .
Then you ’ ll get outbreaks in Denver or in New York or in Boston—it won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , those cities will have to lock back down .
That means we ’ re looking at probably a third to half of the workforce at any given time under some degree of restriction , and probably 10 to 20 % of the population and under some degree of lockdown .
Under normal circumstances , that would cause a recession .
So , we ’ re not going to get back to where we were in February anytime soon , until we have a vaccine .
Now , it ’ s not all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not going to be just us .
Everyone else is going to be dealing with this as well .
And honestly , other countries are far more likely to have secondary epidemics that go nationwide than we are .
Because our mass transit system sucks .
If people are afraid to fly , the only way to get around is to drive , which means that we can actually contain this .
Whereas if you ’ re in Europe or Asia , if it gets into a major city , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter of days .
As we talk about secondary outbreaks , that seems to be what ’ s happening in China .
The curve was flattened there , but now there ’ s an outbreak in a different city .
Actually , I disagree with that .
We know for sure , in the best of days , assuming everyone ’ s trying to be honest , the Chinese data is crap .
They ’ re not trying to be honest anymore .
They ’ re not even pretending to try to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for treating any Chinese data on anything that has to do with this crisis at face value .
You ’ ve got to look at countries that are much more open and honest when it comes to any sort of details .
I would argue that the best comparison we have right now is Spain .
They ’ ve got a similar geographic spatial layout to us .
They ’ re a first world country .
They ’ re struggling with many of the same issues that we are .
They ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of the epidemic , but honestly , that ’ s the closest comparison that we can make right now .
What areas or sectors of the economy do you see getting hit the worst ?
Well , tourism and aerospace are obviously number one .
Nobody is flying right now and what flights are continuing are basically the minimum that is necessary .
There are many flights that have one or zero passengers right now .
It ’ s probably going to be the last industry to come back because a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a little bit older and in the retiree category—they ’ re not going to be coming back until it ’ s safe .
So , they ’ re either going to have to survive COVID-19 or they have to wait for a vaccine to come out .
And that ’ s at least a year away .
If you ’ re in tourism , again , the majority of tourists are retirees .
If you ’ re a country like Portugal , or a place like Miami that relies on tourism , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the near future .
Beyond that , though , and I don ’ t mean to minimize the seriousness , but a lot of people are missing some of the opportunities here .
Stay ahead of the news !
Subscribe to our premium weekday podcast The epidemic in the developing world is going to be far worse than it is here .
The populations are more crowded , it ’ s impossible in some cities like Jakarta or Manila to social distance at all .
You actually can ’ t get six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you wanted to , which means that these places are going to be offline for much longer than the United States .
And because they form the base material , do the base manufacturing for a lot of global manufacturing , that capacity is just going to be offline .
So , here in the United States , we will have the choice between not having manufactured goods or building them ourselves .
So over the summer , we ’ re probably going to see just rocketing growth in any manufacturing sub sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a machine shop online and start to retool , to take advantage of the demand that is no longer being filled .
We are going to see growth in industries we haven ’ t seen for a while .
Now that is going to obviously change the economic complexity of the economy and anytime that happens , jobs are created , jobs are lost .
We ’ re certainly seeing a level lost right now .
We will find a new rhythm here ; it ’ s just not going to be what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social distance in one form or another is with us for at least the next six months , probably quite a bit more .
When you were on our podcast in January , you discussed problems you were seeing in China .
How has the coronavirus impacted the country economically and politically ?
We have a little bit more data now— not from China—but from people who have been in China .
It looks like in calendar year 2019 , combinations of things like infrastructure , labor availability , the shale revolution , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know all the normal things that go into determining whether a society is successful , all of them have induced huge flows of investment in company activity out of China , to the wider world , and especially to the United States .
Part of that you can credit Trump for the trade war which has had an impact .
COVID-19 is accelerating all of this .
When Wuhan got hit by the epidemic , the citizens of China learned very , very quickly how little they could trust the central government .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting all these conspiracy theories about where the virus came from , and blaming America or God forbid , the Italians , has really resonated in the wider world .
Chinese European relations have never been this bad , because the Europeans all sent aid to China when Wuhan was hit .
The Chinese said , we ’ ll take the aid , but do not publicize it because we don ’ t want to lose face .
Now that the Europeans are having the epidemic , the Chinese are not only sending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and then proclaiming it to the rooftop about how China ’ s saving the world .
That is just absolutely wrecking the relationships with everybody .
But that ’ s not why they ’ re doing it .
They ’ re doing it because it allows them to beat the national strum back home .
They ’ re trying to hold the system together .
In the first quarter China was offline and so they had the first recession in modern recorded history .
In the second quarter , the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have no place to export to and so they ’ re getting hit on both sides .
There ’ s no version of recovery in China that does not include the rest of the world pulling out and there ’ s no recovery for the rest of the world that doesn ’ t involve the Americans pulling out .
The Americans are busy re-industrializing , so they don ’ t have to be reliant on the rest of the world .
I don ’ t want to suggest that China is one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hit the plateau .
Again , I don ’ t think we ’ re quite that far yet .
The degree of structural imbalances in China that we have always known are there are now being laid bare .
And 2020 is going to be a year of next to zero , if not negative , growth for the country .
I don ’ t think that they have the social fiber , if that ’ s the right term , to make it through this without a complete political overhaul , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political power into Chairman Xi , I don ’ t think that ’ s even a consideration .
They ’ re gearing up for a hard political and economic crash .
I ’ m not sure that ’ s going to happen this calendar year .
But it is coming very soon .
I ’ m interested to get your take on some of the conspiracy theories out there , like that the coronavirus was an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Technology .
Click here to listen to this full interview @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take on the energy sector and oil prices .
You can find his newest book here .
If you ’ re not already a subscriber to our FS Insider podcast where we interview book authors , strategists and industry experts from across the globe on all things economics , finance and markets…

by FS
Peter Zeihan recently told FS Insider listeners why he doesn’t trust any of the data coming from China and why he expects they have a hard political and economic crash ahead of them. He also shared his thoughts on what the economic recovery from the coronavirus will look like for the U.S. and which industries will be hit the hardest. Read below for excerpts from his interview on FS Insider. If you’re not already a subscriber, click here.
See China Preparing for a Hard Economic Crash, Says Peter Zeihan for audio.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What is your assessment of the situation at present?
Well, we know for sure that the virus is at least three times as communicable as the flu. And we know that one in five cases results in hospitalization, or at least that’s our best understanding right now. That tells us until we get a vaccine in fall at the absolute earliest, or until we get a functional treatment that can be mass produced, which we don’t have right now, the best that we can hope for is that we can get our testing system up to at least a million cases a day. That would allow us to test beyond the hospitals and if we can achieve that, then we can start getting back to normal by September. That might be overly optimistic. When we kind of peek out from under our rocks and stop the stay at home orders, you’ll have the virus start to pop up in additional cities. Then you’ll get outbreaks in Denver or in New York or in Boston—it won’t be nationwide. When that happens, those cities will have to lock back down. That means we’re looking at probably a third to half of the workforce at any given time under some degree of restriction, and probably 10 to 20% of the population and under some degree of lockdown. Under normal circumstances, that would cause a recession. So, we’re not going to get back to where we were in February anytime soon, until we have a vaccine. Now, it’s not all bad news, because it’s not going to be just us. Everyone else is going to be dealing with this as well. And honestly, other countries are far more likely to have secondary epidemics that go nationwide than we are. Because our mass transit system sucks. If people are afraid to fly, the only way to get around is to drive, which means that we can actually contain this. Whereas if you’re in Europe or Asia, if it gets into a major city, it’s probably going to go national in a matter of days.
As we talk about secondary outbreaks, that seems to be what’s happening in China. The curve was flattened there, but now there’s an outbreak in a different city.
Actually, I disagree with that. We know for sure, in the best of days, assuming everyone’s trying to be honest, the Chinese data is crap. They’re not trying to be honest anymore. They’re not even pretending to try to be honest. I would strongly discourage anyone for treating any Chinese data on anything that has to do with this crisis at face value. You’ve got to look at countries that are much more open and honest when it comes to any sort of details. I would argue that the best comparison we have right now is Spain. They’ve got a similar geographic spatial layout to us. They’re a first world country. They’re struggling with many of the same issues that we are. They’re a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of the epidemic, but honestly, that’s the closest comparison that we can make right now.
What areas or sectors of the economy do you see getting hit the worst?
Well, tourism and aerospace are obviously number one. Nobody is flying right now and what flights are continuing are basically the minimum that is necessary. There are many flights that have one or zero passengers right now. It’s probably going to be the last industry to come back because a lot of people who fly tend to be a little bit older and in the retiree category—they’re not going to be coming back until it’s safe. So, they’re either going to have to survive COVID-19 or they have to wait for a vaccine to come out. And that’s at least a year away. If you’re in tourism, again, the majority of tourists are retirees. If you’re a country like Portugal, or a place like Miami that relies on tourism, it’s just not going to happen for the near future. Beyond that, though, and I don’t mean to minimize the seriousness, but a lot of people are missing some of the opportunities here.
Stay ahead of the news! Subscribe to our premium weekday podcast
The epidemic in the developing world is going to be far worse than it is here. The populations are more crowded, it’s impossible in some cities like Jakarta or Manila to social distance at all. You actually can’t get six feet away from everyone, even if you wanted to, which means that these places are going to be offline for much longer than the United States. And because they form the base material, do the base manufacturing for a lot of global manufacturing, that capacity is just going to be offline. So, here in the United States, we will have the choice between not having manufactured goods or building them ourselves. So over the summer, we’re probably going to see just rocketing growth in any manufacturing sub sector where an American is able to bring a machine shop online and start to retool, to take advantage of the demand that is no longer being filled. We are going to see growth in industries we haven’t seen for a while. Now that is going to obviously change the economic complexity of the economy and anytime that happens, jobs are created, jobs are lost. We’re certainly seeing a level lost right now. We will find a new rhythm here; it’s just not going to be what we’re used to. The social distance in one form or another is with us for at least the next six months, probably quite a bit more.
When you were on our podcast in January, you discussed problems you were seeing in China. How has the coronavirus impacted the country economically and politically?
We have a little bit more data now— not from China—but from people who have been in China. It looks like in calendar year 2019, combinations of things like infrastructure, labor availability, the shale revolution, property costs, food costs, you know all the normal things that go into determining whether a society is successful, all of them have induced huge flows of investment in company activity out of China, to the wider world, and especially to the United States. Part of that you can credit Trump for the trade war which has had an impact. COVID-19 is accelerating all of this. When Wuhan got hit by the epidemic, the citizens of China learned very, very quickly how little they could trust the central government. And the reason that the Chinese are starting all these conspiracy theories about where the virus came from, and blaming America or God forbid, the Italians, has really resonated in the wider world. Chinese European relations have never been this bad, because the Europeans all sent aid to China when Wuhan was hit. The Chinese said, we’ll take the aid, but do not publicize it because we don’t want to lose face. Now that the Europeans are having the epidemic, the Chinese are not only sending the aid back but charging for it, and then proclaiming it to the rooftop about how China’s saving the world. That is just absolutely wrecking the relationships with everybody. But that’s not why they’re doing it. They’re doing it because it allows them to beat the national strum back home. They’re trying to hold the system together. In the first quarter China was offline and so they had the first recession in modern recorded history. In the second quarter, the rest of the world is offline, so they have no place to export to and so they’re getting hit on both sides. There’s no version of recovery in China that does not include the rest of the world pulling out and there’s no recovery for the rest of the world that doesn’t involve the Americans pulling out. The Americans are busy re-industrializing, so they don’t have to be reliant on the rest of the world. I don’t want to suggest that China is one of those countries that is going to never hit the plateau. Again, I don’t think we’re quite that far yet. The degree of structural imbalances in China that we have always known are there are now being laid bare. And 2020 is going to be a year of next to zero, if not negative, growth for the country. I don’t think that they have the social fiber, if that’s the right term, to make it through this without a complete political overhaul, and since they’ve now consolidated all political power into Chairman Xi, I don’t think that’s even a consideration. They’re gearing up for a hard political and economic crash. I’m not sure that’s going to happen this calendar year. But it is coming very soon.
I’m interested to get your take on some of the conspiracy theories out there, like that the coronavirus was an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Technology.
No, it is not. All those conspiracy theories are just that and they’re complete crap. Everyone that I’ve ever had a conversation with who has a background in genetics, who has examined any part of this virus has yet to find a single piece of it that suggests anything other than this being a pure physiological phenomenon that just jumps species. I don’t buy these theories at all.
Click here to listen to this full interview with Peter Zeihan and to get his take on the energy sector and oil prices. You can find his newest book here. If you’re not already a subscriber to our FS Insider podcast where we interview book authors, strategists and industry experts from across the globe on all things economics, finance and markets…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Most Americans Are Not Going To Be Able To Handle What Lies Ahead

For the past few days , I have been explaining the different impacts the current health situation has had on the economy .
I have warned you about the stock market crash and the oncoming derivative crisis .
In fact , as oil prices crashed into negative ground in an unprecedented market collapse , I was , unfortunately , proven right .
We are living through troubled times , indeed ; and if you believe it will all be over soon and everything will be alright , you have fallen for the elite ’ s lies .
What we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will seem like nothing in comparison to the catastrophe that we ’ re heading into .
When the lockdowns are finally over and the new reality hits people in the face , major social unrest will follow .
Unimaginable unemployment and homelessness crises lie ahead , and they will come arm in arm with crime and degeneration .
This will be the perfect excuse for governments to impose martial law and promote radical programmes to curb liberties , starting by forcibly disarming their citizens and suppressing their right to free speech .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead , it is worrying to see how the American public , and especially Millennials and Gen-Z ’ ers , have been so unprepared and unwitting .
This is not propaganda or fearmongering ; these are the facts .
Most people have traded their rights and the Constitution for sitting idly at home .
Let ’ s take a look at the numbers .
Even though obesity rates are historically at their highest point , with 40 % of the adult population being obese , Americans are eating more snack foods than ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Harris Poll , “ About 40 % of people say they ’ ve been eating more snack foods since the crisis began , with 26 % admitting they ’ re finding comfort in chocolate , specifically , according to a Harris Poll of 2,013 US adults conducted over the weekend.
” Of course , if people are eating more junk food , they are also drinking more .
Soda consumption increases were reported by 25 % of people and one in every five Americans admitted to ingesting more alcohol than usual .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is that it is Millennials and Gen-Z ’ ers who are driving this statistic up , as 30 % of them are guzzling alcohol more than ever .
Things look even worse if we turn our attention to marijuana sales : demand has exploded .
Apparently , it is the most liberal and , supposedly , more educated generations who are turning to booze instead of facing up to the situation .
In fact , in New York City , “ With the initial surge of panic buying over , wine and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presenting an opportunity — and a challenge — for the businesses scrambling to meet the demand spikes and shifts in consumer behavior .
“ It ’ s like New Year ’ s every day , ” said Mark Schwartz , the owner of Little Mo Wine and Spirits in the Crown Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn , New York , who has seen alcohol sales shoot up fourfold.
” For those of you that keep an eye on the markets : have you noticed how Netflix ’ s stock is having its best performance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subscription owners , the majority of whom are liberal Millennials , have been glued to their screens binge-watching everything that the company feeds them .
According to a StudyFinds report , OnePoll surveyed 2,000 Americans with access to at least one streaming service and found that not only was the average person watching eight hours ’ worth of content but also likely went through three series in a week alone .
So , amidst a crisis that is getting worse by the day , the younger generations are taking a seat on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a corporation know for working with Christ-bashers and promoting the elite ’ s agenda .
Great !
Bad behaviour breeds bad behaviour , so it ’ s no surprise that other vices are also on the rise .
MSN reports that “ online poker revenues were up more than 100 percent from February , and iGaming revenue reached a new record of $ 64.8 million according to the figures released Wednesday for New Jersey , one of two states that allow online gambling ” .
This sort of irresponsible conduct is astonishing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have spent all their savings by the end of April .
That ’ s right : people are gambling away their money at a time when the economy is entering a deep recession and unemployment is rising .
What will they do when the end of April comes and they have no money , no job and the banks come asking for their mortgage ?
No wonder that crime will rise !
Read the full transcript and more economic collapse news here : www.epiceconomist.com

For the past few days, I have been explaining the different impacts the current health situation has had on the economy. I have warned you about the stock market crash and the oncoming derivative crisis. In fact, as oil prices crashed into negative ground in an unprecedented market collapse, I was, unfortunately, proven right. We are living through troubled times, indeed; and if you believe it will all be over soon and everything will be alright, you have fallen for the elite’s lies. What we are living through is a tragedy, but it will seem like nothing in comparison to the catastrophe that we’re heading into. When the lockdowns are finally over and the new reality hits people in the face, major social unrest will follow. Unimaginable unemployment and homelessness crises lie ahead, and they will come arm in arm with crime and degeneration. This will be the perfect excuse for governments to impose martial law and promote radical programmes to curb liberties, starting by forcibly disarming their citizens and suppressing their right to free speech.
With this threat just a few weeks ahead, it is worrying to see how the American public, and especially Millennials and Gen-Z’ers, have been so unprepared and unwitting. This is not propaganda or fearmongering; these are the facts. Most people have traded their rights and the Constitution for sitting idly at home. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Even though obesity rates are historically at their highest point, with 40% of the adult population being obese, Americans are eating more snack foods than ever before. In fact, according to a Harris Poll, “About 40% of people say they’ve been eating more snack foods since the crisis began, with 26% admitting they’re finding comfort in chocolate, specifically, according to a Harris Poll of 2,013 US adults conducted over the weekend.”
Of course, if people are eating more junk food, they are also drinking more. Soda consumption increases were reported by 25% of people and one in every five Americans admitted to ingesting more alcohol than usual. The shocking piece of data, however, is that it is Millennials and Gen-Z’ers who are driving this statistic up, as 30% of them are guzzling alcohol more than ever. Things look even worse if we turn our attention to marijuana sales: demand has exploded. Apparently, it is the most liberal and, supposedly, more educated generations who are turning to booze instead of facing up to the situation. In fact, in New York City, “With the initial surge of panic buying over, wine and marijuana sales are still way up, presenting an opportunity — and a challenge — for the businesses scrambling to meet the demand spikes and shifts in consumer behavior. “It’s like New Year’s every day,” said Mark Schwartz, the owner of Little Mo Wine and Spirits in the Crown Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York, who has seen alcohol sales shoot up fourfold.”
For those of you that keep an eye on the markets: have you noticed how Netflix’s stock is having its best performance in years? That’s because subscription owners, the majority of whom are liberal Millennials, have been glued to their screens binge-watching everything that the company feeds them. According to a StudyFinds report, OnePoll surveyed 2,000 Americans with access to at least one streaming service and found that not only was the average person watching eight hours’ worth of content but also likely went through three series in a week alone. So, amidst a crisis that is getting worse by the day, the younger generations are taking a seat on the sofa and driving up the profits of a corporation know for working with Christ-bashers and promoting the elite’s agenda. Great!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bad behaviour breeds bad behaviour, so it’s no surprise that other vices are also on the rise. MSN reports that “online poker revenues were up more than 100 percent from February, and iGaming revenue reached a new record of $64.8 million according to the figures released Wednesday for New Jersey, one of two states that allow online gambling”. This sort of irresponsible conduct is astonishing, especially because 50% of Americans will have spent all their savings by the end of April. That’s right: people are gambling away their money at a time when the economy is entering a deep recession and unemployment is rising. What will they do when the end of April comes and they have no money, no job and the banks come asking for their mortgage? No wonder that crime will rise! Read the full transcript and more economic collapse news here: www.epiceconomist.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Firefighters beg “Stop microwaving face masks!”

It doesn ’ t sanitize the masks , but it could set your kitchen on fire .
People across the @ @ @ @ @ masks in microwaves in attempts to kill germs , leading fire departments to caution against @ @ @ @ @ NH State Fire Marshal ’ s Office ( NHFMO ) would like to remind everyone @ @ @ @ @ to kill germs ” is a fire hazard and an extremely bad idea , ” @ @ @ @ @ Facebook post .
There is a troubling trend in which people are microwaving masks in @ @ @ @ @ germs .
A lot of people don ’ t know that there is metal inside @ @ @ @ @ shape it to your nose .
Microwaving a mask could cause your microwave to catch @ @ @ @ @ nometal pic.twitter.com/kwpUr2GvYw — Reading Fire Local 1640 ( @ Readingfire ) April 13 , 2020

Quote: It doesn’t sanitize the masks, but it could set your kitchen on fire.
People across the country have been putting face masks in microwaves in attempts to kill germs, leading fire departments to caution against the move.
…
“The NH State Fire Marshal’s Office (NHFMO) would like to remind everyone that “microwaving their masks to kill germs” is a fire hazard and an extremely bad idea,” the office said in a Facebook post.
..
There is a troubling trend in which people are microwaving masks in an effort to kill the germs. A lot of people don’t know that there is metal inside the mask to help you shape it to your nose. Microwaving a mask could cause your microwave to catch fire! #firesafety #nometal pic.twitter.com/kwpUr2GvYw
— Reading Fire Local 1640 (@Readingfire) April 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Massive layoffs and pay cuts for Gov workers

• State and local governments are warning of a wave of layoffs and pay cuts after getting left out of the federal coronavirus relief package expected to pass Congress this week .
• In many places , such as Detroit and Los Angeles , those painful reductions are already taking shape .
• State and local governments received aid under the $ 2.2 trillion CARES Act signed late last month , but they are pleading for new relief as Congress prepares to pass a bill to help small businesses and hospitals .
WASHINGTON — State and local governments are warning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts after getting left out of the federal coronavirus relief package expected to pass Congress this week .
In many places , those painful reductions are already taking shape : • Los Angeles plans to force city workers to spend 26 days on unpaid leave as revenues are forecast to drop as much as $ 600 million next fiscal year .
• Detroit has proposed laying off 200 workers and furloughing thousands more .
“ We are really struggling , ” Driehaus said .
The $ 2.2 trillion emergency legislation known as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signed late last month , included $ 150 billion in direct help for state and local governments grappling with the impact of the deadly outbreak .
Democrats pushed to include another $ 150 billion in the next tranche of aid , but Republicans sought to keep the bill narrowly focused on support for small business .

State and local governments are warning of a wave of layoffs and pay cuts after getting left out of the federal coronavirus relief package expected to pass Congress this week.
In many places, such as Detroit and Los Angeles, those painful reductions are already taking shape.
State and local governments received aid under the $2.2 trillion CARES Act signed late last month, but they are pleading for new relief as Congress prepares to pass a bill to help small businesses and hospitals.
WASHINGTON — State and local governments are warning of a wave of layoffs and pay cuts after getting left out of the federal coronavirus relief package expected to pass Congress this week.
In many places, those painful reductions are already taking shape:
Los Angeles plans to force city workers to spend 26 days on unpaid leave as revenues are forecast to drop as much as $600 million next fiscal year.
Detroit has proposed laying off 200 workers and furloughing thousands more.
In Ohio’s Hamilton County, Commissioner Denise Driehaus is taking a 10% pay cut alongside county workers.
“We are really struggling,” Driehaus said.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The $2.2 trillion emergency legislation known as the CARES Act, which President Donald Trump signed late last month, included $150 billion in direct help for state and local governments grappling with the impact of the deadly outbreak. Democrats pushed to include another $150 billion in the next tranche of aid, but Republicans sought to keep the bill narrowly focused on support for small business.
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/coronavirus-relief-bill-layoffs-coming-to-state-local-governments.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--New Treasury/SBA Guidance: If you don’t need the PPP money, return it!

In addition to reviewing applicable affiliation rules to determine eligibility , all borrowers must assess their economic need for a @ @ @ @ @ established by the CARES Act and the PPP regulations at the time of the loan @ @ @ @ @ Act suspends the ordinary requirement that borrowers must be unable to obtain credit elsewhere ( @ @ @ @ @ ( h ) of the Small Business Act ) , borrowers still must certify in @ @ @ @ @ loan request is necessary .
AKA , if your business is booming right now , @ @ @ @ @ traded — return the PPP money if you took it !
Lenders may rely on @ @ @ @ @ regarding the necessity of the loan request .
Any borrower that applied for a PPP @ @ @ @ @ of this guidance and repays the loan in full by May 7 , 2020 will @ @ @ @ @ have made the required certification in good faith .

by NeoMatrix5
home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Paycheck-Protection-Program-Frequently-Asked-Questions.pdf
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/us-issues-new-guidance-for-small-business-loans-to-make-it-harder-for-public-companies-to-get-funds.html
In addition to reviewing applicable affiliation rules to determine eligibility, all borrowers must assess their economic need for a PPP loan under the standard established by the CARES Act and the PPP regulations at the time of the loan application. Although the CARES Act suspends the ordinary requirement that borrowers must be unable to obtain credit elsewhere (as defined in section 3(h) of the Small Business Act), borrowers still must certify in good faith that their PPP loan request is necessary.
AKA, if your business is booming right now, or you’re publicly traded — return the PPP money if you took it!
Lenders may rely on a borrower’s certification regarding the necessity of the loan request. Any borrower that applied for a PPP loan prior to the issuance of this guidance and repays the loan in full by May 7, 2020 will be deemed by SBA to have made the required certification in good faith.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Big banks blaming Lendio and others for gaming the system, asking the SBA to hold them accountable

So , this is all second hand obviously so take it with a grain of salt or ignore it outright if you wish .
But i have heard from multiple sources at big banks that they ’ re blaming lenders like Lendio for R1 PPP funds being exhausted and are asking the SBA to hold them accountable .
if youre not aware , Lendio ( maybe others to a lesser extent ) essentially gamed the system by applying with the SBA as soon as they received your application before doing any due diligence at all .
essentially reserving your spot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for accuracy .
this wasnt how the SBA intended this process to work and isnt how the big banks have done it and now that they ’ re being eviscerated by the media , they ’ re looking for anyone to blame but themselves and Lendio and others have made themselves an easy target .
it would only be speculation , but given the amount of weight the big banks hold , i wouldnt be shocked if there were repercussions to Lendio and , as a result , those who applied with them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through multiple lenders , i would consider pulling your Lendio app and sticking with another lender who has already performed the necessary due diligence and will fund you as soon as they submit your app to the SBA .
that ’ s what i have done and what others have done .
also , you can read the multiple meltdown threads on this sub where those who were “ approved ” by Lendio still haven ’ t received funding and haven ’ t received any communication since being approved , while their SBA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At a minimum , it seems obvious that Lendio bit off more than they could chew by gaming the system as they did , and worst case , the SBA has told them to fuck off , no doubt due to pressure from big banks who have massive pull with the feds .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by jochexum
So, this is all second hand obviously so take it with a grain of salt or ignore it outright if you wish.
But i have heard from multiple sources at big banks that they’re blaming lenders like Lendio for R1 PPP funds being exhausted and are asking the SBA to hold them accountable.
if youre not aware, Lendio (maybe others to a lesser extent) essentially gamed the system by applying with the SBA as soon as they received your application before doing any due diligence at all. essentially reserving your spot in line and THEN reviewing your docs for accuracy.
this wasnt how the SBA intended this process to work and isnt how the big banks have done it and now that they’re being eviscerated by the media, they’re looking for anyone to blame but themselves and Lendio and others have made themselves an easy target.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
it would only be speculation, but given the amount of weight the big banks hold, i wouldnt be shocked if there were repercussions to Lendio and, as a result, those who applied with them.
if you are “pre-approved” through multiple lenders, i would consider pulling your Lendio app and sticking with another lender who has already performed the necessary due diligence and will fund you as soon as they submit your app to the SBA. that’s what i have done and what others have done.
also, you can read the multiple meltdown threads on this sub where those who were “approved” by Lendio still haven’t received funding and haven’t received any communication since being approved, while their SBA reservation is set to expire soon. At a minimum, it seems obvious that Lendio bit off more than they could chew by gaming the system as they did, and worst case, the SBA has told them to fuck off, no doubt due to pressure from big banks who have massive pull with the feds.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--For those of you applying for PPP 2nd tranche. .Money is likely already gone to those on waitlist…

CNBC : New $ 310 billion in aid for small businesses is likely already used up , banks say .
@ @ @ @ @ $ 300 billion set aside to replenish the emergency loan program for small businesses impacted @ @ @ @ @ likely already all spoken for , banking industry groups said .
• Banks say the @ @ @ @ @ to the Small Business Administration makes it likely that much , if not all , @ @ @ @ @ to those already in the queue .
• Any new applicants would likely miss out @ @ @ @ @ industry groups said .

CNBC: New $310 billion in aid for small businesses is likely already used up, banks say. www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-310-billion-in-aid-for-small-businesses-is-likely-already-used-up-banks-say.html
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The more than $300 billion set aside to replenish the emergency loan program for small businesses impacted by the coronavirus pandemic is likely already all spoken for, banking industry groups said.
Banks say the volume of applications already sent to the Small Business Administration makes it likely that much, if not all, the new money will go to those already in the queue.
Any new applicants would likely miss out on this funding round, industry groups said.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--If you are an actual small business, you need to apply for PPP regardless of being okay now.

Please listen .
I have been reading that some small business owners have not applied for the PPP Loan .
They feel guilty about applying because they have savings , or that their business hasn ’ t been affected yet , or they think the pandemic will not affect them .
I ask you all to think on this .
Production everywhere is down due to shelter restrictions , even essential businesses .
Supply chains could very well be compromised or completely shut down in the future .
There are a lot of negative things happening in the economy that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jobs have been lost , and Unemployment will dry up , and new jobs will only be created at a slow pace .
People that have money will be conservative with their spending , and will start leveraging small businesses prices until they crumble .
I guarantee you , the only way the economic effects of this pandemic will not affect you is if you are personally vastly wealthy ( and with how the government is spending hyper-inflation isn ’ t an impossibility ) .
A huge amount of the work force is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
This WILL affect you .
Look ahead and protect yourself and your business with every advantage you can muster .
If you don ’ t apply , it is just as likely a 499 employee company will chew up the loans rather than it going to someone in a worse situation .
If you think someone needs it more than you , apply for the loan and lend the equivalent money you gain to other small businesses local to you that you KNOW need it .
The government , the banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to look after you if your business suddenly takes a turn for the worse .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by Sparkyeanon
Please listen. I have been reading that some small business owners have not applied for the PPP Loan. They feel guilty about applying because they have savings, or that their business hasn’t been affected yet, or they think the pandemic will not affect them. I ask you all to think on this.
Production everywhere is down due to shelter restrictions, even essential businesses. Supply chains could very well be compromised or completely shut down in the future. There are a lot of negative things happening in the economy that will not reveal themselves until later. Jobs have been lost, and Unemployment will dry up, and new jobs will only be created at a slow pace. People that have money will be conservative with their spending, and will start leveraging small businesses prices until they crumble. I guarantee you, the only way the economic effects of this pandemic will not affect you is if you are personally vastly wealthy (and with how the government is spending hyper-inflation isn’t an impossibility). A huge amount of the work force is not going to be going back to work. This WILL affect you. Look ahead and protect yourself and your business with every advantage you can muster. If you don’t apply, it is just as likely a 499 employee company will chew up the loans rather than it going to someone in a worse situation.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you think someone needs it more than you, apply for the loan and lend the equivalent money you gain to other small businesses local to you that you KNOW need it. The government, the banks, and Wall Street are not going to look after you if your business suddenly takes a turn for the worse.
Prepare.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Oil could soon fall to -$100 per barrel: Energy analyst

If you thought the collapse in oil prices this week was bad , next month could be “ fundamentally worse , ” with prices falling to - $ 100 a barrel , says one energy strategist .
“ Oil is difficult to handle and if you can ’ t put it anywhere , it becomes an environmental liability literally .
So over this next month storage is now effectively full , you could see some extreme negatives in terms of prices offered , ” Paul Sankey , managing director at Mizuho Group , told Yahoo Finance .
On Wednesday WTI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebounded from a price bloodbath earlier this week .
On Monday WTI ( CL=F ) May futures which expired April 21st fell below zero for the first time in history .
Oil producers were paying buyers to take crude off their hands as storage capacities were full of unused oil .
“ The problem in the market today is really one of infrastructure and storage .
Of course the biggest problem being that demand is down at absolutely previously unseen levels in the modern era , ” said Sankey .
Crude prices could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Saudi oil are currently on route to the U.S .
The shipment was agreed upon in March before much of the economy came to a grinding halt amid COVID-19 .
“ Those barrels take 45 to 60 days to arrive .
And we can see this a flotilla of tankers that are coming towards the U.S. market … We really can ’ t handle it at all .
”

If you thought the collapse in oil prices this week was bad, next month could be “fundamentally worse,” with prices falling to -$100 a barrel, says one energy strategist.
“Oil is difficult to handle and if you can’t put it anywhere, it becomes an environmental liability literally. So over this next month storage is now effectively full, you could see some extreme negatives in terms of prices offered,” Paul Sankey, managing director at Mizuho Group, told Yahoo Finance.
On Wednesday WTI crude for June delivery (CLM20.NYM) rebounded from a price bloodbath earlier this week. On Monday WTI (CL=F) May futures which expired April 21st fell below zero for the first time in history. Oil producers were paying buyers to take crude off their hands as storage capacities were full of unused oil.
“The problem in the market today is really one of infrastructure and storage. Of course the biggest problem being that demand is down at absolutely previously unseen levels in the modern era,” said Sankey.
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Crude prices could go negative again as 40 million barrels of Saudi oil are currently on route to the U.S. The shipment was agreed upon in March before much of the economy came to a grinding halt amid COVID-19.
“Those barrels take 45 to 60 days to arrive. And we can see this a flotilla of tankers that are coming towards the U.S. market … We really can’t handle it at all.”
finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-could-soon-fall-to-100-per-barrel-energy-analyst-114522099.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--US lost all job gains made since “Great Recession,” some of these claims have to be people who will

US lost all job gains made since “Great Recession,” some of these claims have to be people who will get their job back when the storm passes, but their employer doesn’t want to pay them. On the other hand, claims probably understate the problem.

So how do we feel about these numbers ?
Some of these jobs are gone for good .
Demand depressed @ @ @ @ @ , ” leaving most out of work .
My impression is that most blue states @ @ @ @ @ , which would keep this rate/unemployment claims up .
Ultimately , there are probably two @ @ @ @ @ ” unemployment rate ( rate while every business is shut down ) and a “ @ @ @ @ @ rate it stays at once businesses and the country re-open ) .
What is everyone @ @ @ @ @ the hard rate relative to the soft rate ?
At that point , businesses will @ @ @ @ @ rate matters if you still believe in fundamentals .
Impacts consumer demand/confidence on re-opening .
@ @ @ @ @ I ’ m developing that for as bad as the shut down is we see @ @ @ @ @ b/c of the underlying problems caused by the “ hard ” rate .
Do people @ @

by QuaintSofaChallenge
So how do we feel about these numbers? Some of these jobs are gone for good. Demand depressed even on the “re-opening,” leaving most out of work.
My impression is that most blue states stay closed for another month, which would keep this rate/unemployment claims up.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Ultimately, there are probably two rates. A “soft” unemployment rate (rate while every business is shut down) and a “hard” rate (the rate it stays at once businesses and the country re-open). What is everyone’s guess as to the hard rate relative to the soft rate?
At that point, businesses will have gone under. Hard rate matters if you still believe in fundamentals. Impacts consumer demand/confidence on re-opening. May feed into a thesis I’m developing that for as bad as the shut down is we see extended GDP decline through re-opening b/c of the underlying problems caused by the “hard” rate. Do people disagree?
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/record-u-s-jobless-claims-wipe-out-post-great-recession-employment-gains-idUSKCN2250CS


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Credit Card Processing — indicator for Consumers Spending

Credit Card processing is very important as it ’ s a key indicator for consumers spending .
Scroll down for Puts/Calls .
2 . )
Merchant — Business establishment accepting payment .
These guys pay out all the fees 5 . )
Issuing Bank — Issue the credit card .
If your credit card say “ Chase ” , then Chase is the issuing bank .
6 . )
Processor — transactions run through these guys .
Think of them as a highway to run and verify transactions 7 . )
ISO — Independent sales office .
These guys are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them up with “ use my company How does each Parties make money ?
1 . )
Consumer — they don ’ t anything as they are the purchaser .
2 . )
Merchant — they pay out all the fees .
At the end of the month , they get a bill for the privilege of being able to accept credit card .
3 . )
Card Brand — Card Brand is pretty much god .
They make about 15 % of total fees paid out to merchant .
Look up FANF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need money , they just increase their rates , that ’ s it .
More on this later .
4 . )
Sponsoring Bank — these guys make the least out of everyone in the group .
About 0.01 % -0.03 % ( 1 to 3 BP ) of total processing volume .
5 . )
Issuing bank — “ interchange ” is paid out to the issuing bank .
These fees account for about 75 % of all total fees .
Card Brand dictate interchange .
I ’ m not going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is publish for each card brand .
Look it up .
6 . )
Processor — these guys usually make money on per transaction counts .
About $ 0.02 - $ 0.05 per transaction and bunch of other misc fees .
7 . )
ISO — whatever is left over goes to the sales group .
In a normal business niche ( not high risk or CBD/ cannabis ) , profit is about 0.30 % – 0.50 % of total processing volume .
What if you as a sales office charged merchant 2.75 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
you would net negative on any transactions under $ 10 and net positive on any transaction over $ 40.00 Why ?
because interchange for a signature regulated debit is 0.05 % + $ 0.22 ( per transaction ) not including all the other costs .
All 50 states have stay-at-home orders .
Some states are talking about opening up again ( GA , FL ) .
Guess what ?
it ’ s the Consumers who ’ s going to decide when to “ open ” up .
Household spending account for 70 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world is on lock down .
Even after opening up , it ’ s still bad .
a. Visa ( V ) — earning is on 04/30 .
They are the god in this business .
They have the greatest exposure in US and overseas .
There is no place in asia or Europe that does not take Visa .
They increase their rates twice a year .
Rate increases scheduled for this April was pushed back to July .
Their earnings will be absolutely horrible as the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US in march .
i .
Waiting to be fill — V 01 May $ 160P b. Mastercard — earning is on 04/29 — They have the second highest processing in US .
Also like Visa .
If you are playing earning , any puts within 5 % will be good .
c. Discover ( DFS ) ( Diner Club , Union Pay ) — Earning 4/22 — I had 15 X $ 2.72 01 May $ 34C going into earning .
CALLS ?
?
WTF ?
?
1 . )
they announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) They own debit networks .
Think grocery stores , liquor stores , cannabis shops .
3 . )
Dinner club , union pay , paypal all goes through them to process on a traditional level .
Going to exit my position at open with probably 40 % losses .
This is good , if DFS missed by bad , the rest will be way way worst .
a. FITB — 4/21 — missed earning .
Went down on 4/21 then went back up .
3 . )
Issuing Bank — I would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too diversified .
4 . )
Processor — do your own research .
SQ ( Square ) — earning 05/06 .
I did not talked about Payment facilitator .
Which is kinda of what they are .
Here was a post on here “ Square InC , SQ Puts—let ’ s be rational .
Right direction but wrong DD .
Square is all domestic and make their money primary from 1 . )
Credit Card processing — they will give merchant , 2.75 % or $ 275 total fees .
Their credit card @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The reason is because of their client base ( mom and pop , start up , small transactions type businesses ) .
2.75 % is a good percentage on volume but the $ 0.00 per swipe is killing them by the time they have to pay out interchanges and dues assessments .
Their average ticket have to be over $ 25.00 to be profit .
But the business model will not allow it .
Small mom and pop go to them because lax underwriting , and it ’ s a lot easier vs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ merchants is under 10k in processing .
3 . )
SAS ( Service as a subscription ) — Minimal revenue when comparing to credit card processing .
They are also waiving all the software subscription fees for the month of April .
1 . )
In fintech , you don ’ t need to be making money .
You can have years of losses and stock will go up .
Why ?
because it ’ s about acquiring a large merchant base .
2 . )
Jack Dorsey — yes the Twitter guy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ceo of Square .
He ’ s the Elon Musk of this space .
And you don ’ t mess with papa Elon .
The exposure they get from this is HUGGGGEEEEEEEE .
Ask yourself , does bad earnings = STONK go down ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by stream5482
Credit Card processing is very important as it’s a key indicator for consumers spending. Scroll down for Puts/Calls.
Parties Involved to make it work ?
1.) Consumer — end user. Credit Card holder.
2.) Merchant — Business establishment accepting payment. These guys pay out all the fees
3.) Card Brand —- Visa, Mastercard, Discover (Diner Club, Union Pay), American Express,
4.) Sponsoring Bank — handles risks, daily balancing, funding the merchant.
5.) Issuing Bank — Issue the credit card. If your credit card say “ Chase”, then Chase is the issuing bank.
6.) Processor — transactions run through these guys. Think of them as a highway to run and verify transactions
7.) ISO — Independent sales office. These guys are the one who call business to sign them up with “ use my company
for cheaper rates”
How does each Parties make money ?
1.) Consumer — they don’t anything as they are the purchaser.
2.) Merchant — they pay out all the fees. At the end of the month, they get a bill for the privilege of being able to accept credit card.
3.) Card Brand — Card Brand is pretty much god. They make about 15% of total fees paid out to merchant. Look up FANF, dues & assessments. If Visa need money, they just increase their rates, that’s it. More on this later.
4.) Sponsoring Bank — these guys make the least out of everyone in the group. About 0.01% -0.03% ( 1 to 3 BP) of total processing volume.
5.) Issuing bank — “interchange” is paid out to the issuing bank. These fees account for about 75% of all total fees. Card Brand dictate interchange. I’m not going to go into qualifications, etc….. Interchange rates is publish for each card brand. Look it up.
6.) Processor — these guys usually make money on per transaction counts. About $0.02 -$0.05 per transaction and bunch of other misc fees.
7.) ISO — whatever is left over goes to the sales group. In a normal business niche ( not high risk or CBD/ cannabis), profit is about 0.30% – 0.50% of total processing volume.
Profit Math
Merchant’s fee – ( issuing bank + card brand ) = ISO’ Gross – ( Processor + Sponsoring Bank) = ISO’s Net.
Fees:
Always have 2 parts.
a.) Percentage multiply by the processing volume.
b.) Fix charge multiply by the transaction.
What if you as a sales office charged merchant 2.75% ( SQUARE) and nothing else? you would net negative on any transactions under $10 and net positive on any transaction over $40.00
Why ? because interchange for a signature regulated debit is 0.05%+ $0.22( per transaction) not including all the other costs.
State of the world.
All 50 states have stay-at-home orders. Some states are talking about opening up again ( GA, FL). Guess what ? it’s the Consumers who’s going to decide when to “open” up. Household spending account for 70% of annual GDP.
The rest of the world is on lock down. Even after opening up, it’s still bad.
www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-reopening-is-missing-consumers-thats-a-bad-sign-for-u-s-51587476793
Great…… Give me puts or calls……………..
1.) Card Brand —-
a. Visa ( V) — earning is on 04/30. They are the god in this business. They have the greatest exposure in US and overseas. There is no place in asia or Europe that does not take Visa. They increase their rates twice a year. Rate increases scheduled for this April was pushed back to July. Their earnings will be absolutely horrible as the rest of the world started shutting down in Feb and US in march.
i. Waiting to be fill — V 01 May $160P
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ii. Waiting to be fill — V 19 June $135P
b. Mastercard — earning is on 04/29 — They have the second highest processing in US. Also like Visa. If you are playing earning, any puts within 5% will be good.
c. Discover ( DFS) (Diner Club, Union Pay) — Earning 4/22 — I had 15 X $2.72 01 May $34C going into earning. CALLS?? WTF?? 1.) they announced dividends right before earnings. 2.) They own debit networks. Think grocery stores, liquor stores, cannabis shops. 3.) Dinner club, union pay, paypal all goes through them to process on a traditional level.
Results:
Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.25 misses by $1.61.
Revenue of $2.89B (+4.7% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Shares -5.3% AH.
Going to exit my position at open with probably 40% losses.
This is good, if DFS missed by bad, the rest will be way way worst.
d. American Express ( AXP) — rich people’s credit card.
2.) Sponsoring Bank —
a. FITB — 4/21 — missed earning. Went down on 4/21 then went back up.
📷
3.) Issuing Bank — I would not touch issuing bank as they are too diversified.
a. Chase
b. Bank of America
4.) Processor — do your own research.
a. Global Payments
b. Fiserv
Other:
SQ ( Square) — earning 05/06. I did not talked about Payment facilitator. Which is kinda of what they are. Here was a post on here “ Square InC, SQ Puts—let’s be rational. Right direction but wrong DD.
Square is all domestic and make their money primary from
1.) Credit Card processing — they will give merchant, 2.75% or $275 total fees. Their credit card processing is net negative since inception. The reason is because of their client base ( mom and pop, start up, small transactions type businesses). 2.75% is a good percentage on volume but the $0.00 per swipe is killing them by the time they have to pay out interchanges and dues assessments. Their average ticket have to be over $25.00 to be profit. But the business model will not allow it. Small mom and pop go to them because lax underwriting, and it’s a lot easier vs a traditional model. Most of their merchants is under 10k in processing.
2.) Hardware sales — very minimal 1 time revenue
3.) SAS ( Service as a subscription) — Minimal revenue when comparing to credit card processing. They are also waiving all the software subscription fees for the month of April.
4.) Others…………
I WOULD NOT TOUCH SQUARE.
1.) In fintech, you don’t need to be making money. You can have years of losses and stock will go up. Why ? because it’s about acquiring a large merchant base.
2.) Jack Dorsey — yes the Twitter guy. He’s the founder and ceo of Square. He’s the Elon Musk of this space. And you don’t mess with papa Elon.
3.) SQ is APPROVED to make Emergency Small-Business Coronavirus loans. www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-why-paypal-and-square-are-rising-today-2020-04-22
The exposure they get from this is HUGGGGEEEEEEEE.
Ask yourself, does bad earnings = STONK go down ????????
GO with VISA puts, a lot safer.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Difference in this recession vs 2008: Rich people aren’t really impacted

I ’ m starting to think the reason stocks aren ’ t going down is that the people who own stocks ( or who have money with institutions that invest on their behalf ) have not really seen a change in their life .
Same for the pundits who are talking about stocks on the news and giving people advice .
Have their lives changed that much ?
Honestly , probably not .
Who has been impacted the most – lower income people with jobs in retail , service , restaurants , etc .
Guess what ?
Generally , those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month ’ s rent in savings , let alone money in the stock market .
In 08 , the crisis was more financial .
People with money thought the institutions managing their investments and holding their debt were going to go under .
People ’ s home values were dropping and they were upside down on their mortgages .
Today , they are probably working from home , not really seeing much of a change in take home pay , and likely just letting their money ride in the stock market .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ class person with money in the market is “ wow this sucks , I can ’ t get my haircut and have to get takeout instead of sitting down at a restaurant , ” things don ’ t seem all that bad .
Unemployment numbers don ’ t matter , because those aren ’ t your peers losing jobs , they ’ re people you have probably no connection with .
So all you see is that we went from millons projected to die , to hundreds of thousands , to now 60K @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So your biggest concern was probably that you were going to get sick , but now that seems like a long shot .
Now you think the economy is going to open up , and you didn ’ t really ever feel that much pain .
Thus stocks never had a real reason to go down , but now , they should go up .

by ldrum13
I’m starting to think the reason stocks aren’t going down is that the people who own stocks (or who have money with institutions that invest on their behalf) have not really seen a change in their life.
Same for the pundits who are talking about stocks on the news and giving people advice. Have their lives changed that much? Honestly, probably not.
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Who has been impacted the most – lower income people with jobs in retail, service, restaurants, etc. Guess what? Generally, those people don’t even have a month’s rent in savings, let alone money in the stock market.
In 08, the crisis was more financial. People with money thought the institutions managing their investments and holding their debt were going to go under. People’s home values were dropping and they were upside down on their mortgages. Today, they are probably working from home, not really seeing much of a change in take home pay, and likely just letting their money ride in the stock market.
So if the perception of the average mid-to-upper class person with money in the market is “wow this sucks, I can’t get my haircut and have to get takeout instead of sitting down at a restaurant,” things don’t seem all that bad. Unemployment numbers don’t matter, because those aren’t your peers losing jobs, they’re people you have probably no connection with. So all you see is that we went from millons projected to die, to hundreds of thousands, to now 60K (which will obviously be exceeded). So your biggest concern was probably that you were going to get sick, but now that seems like a long shot. Now you think the economy is going to open up, and you didn’t really ever feel that much pain. Thus stocks never had a real reason to go down, but now, they should go up.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Ben Felix – The Stock Market vs The Economy

Tldr : Economic data is backwards looking , stock prices are forward looking , and economic growth doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ because of the rapid increase in the number of companies representing that growth .
Here @ @ @ @ @ some of the newer investors to understand why negative news , such as unemployment # @ @ @ @ @ indexes green .
“ If you knew what was going to happen in the economy @ @ @ @ @ t necessarily know what was going to happen to the stock market ” – Buffet @ @ @ @ @ and if reality falls short , meets , or exceeds expectations .
Unemployment for instance @ @ @ @ @ can seem horrible ( and is ) , but if the market was forecasting 3 @ @ @ @ @ actually a really good scenario that could move the market up ( simplifying and not @ @ @ @ @ )

Tldr: Economic data is backwards looking, stock prices are forward looking, and economic growth doesn’t directly translate to stock gains because of the rapid increase in the number of companies representing that growth.
Here is a good video for some of the newer investors to understand why negative news, such as unemployment #s can move stocks / indexes green.
“If you knew what was going to happen in the economy, you still wouldn’t necessarily know what was going to happen to the stock market” – Buffet.
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Its all about expectations and if reality falls short, meets, or exceeds expectations.
Unemployment for instance, losing 1 million jobs can seem horrible (and is), but if the market was forecasting 3 million jobs lost, its actually a really good scenario that could move the market up (simplifying and not accounting for other factors obviously)
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--The scientific data shows that the lockdown policy is insane

This is the best summation I ’ ve heard as to why we ’ re doing it all wrong !

This is the best summation I’ve heard as to why we’re doing it all wrong!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Avoiding FOMO and FUD

Avoiding FOMO and FUD

• Never try to catch a falling knife .
Stop trying to find the bottom of a falling stock , you exacerbate FOMO this way .
Not only will you make mistakes financially , you can also bring about health issues that no amount of money can fix .
Let the other guys determine the bottom for you .
• You know you best .
If something “ feels off ” don ’ t do anything and walk away .
Congratulations , you won the stock market .
Practicing doing nothing is hard , but worth the peace of mind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Sure , but you ’ ll build a better , healthier relationship with the market and you ’ ll see the signs clearer for your next moves .
• The stock market is the largest open transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient .
• Know where you are in your timeline .
Everyone has a different relationship with the market and different investment strategies/goals .
Make sure you stay on track with current events .
Example : March 23rd marks a new investment era and everything in my current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Remembering these things when FOMO and FUD has helped my manage mistakes .

by GreenBax1985
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Never try to catch a falling knife. Stop trying to find the bottom of a falling stock, you exacerbate FOMO this way. Not only will you make mistakes financially, you can also bring about health issues that no amount of money can fix. Let the other guys determine the bottom for you. You know you best. If something “feels off” don’t do anything and walk away. Congratulations, you won the stock market. Practicing doing nothing is hard, but worth the peace of mind. Will you miss out l sometimes? Sure, but you’ll build a better, healthier relationship with the market and you’ll see the signs clearer for your next moves. The stock market is the largest open transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient. Know where you are in your timeline. Everyone has a different relationship with the market and different investment strategies/goals. Make sure you stay on track with current events. Example: March 23rd marks a new investment era and everything in my current timeline can relate back to it.
Remembering these things when FOMO and FUD has helped my manage mistakes.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Steen’s Chronicle: Welcome Back to the 1970s… Buckle Up: The “Stuckflation” Roller Coaster Straight

Steen’s Chronicle: Welcome Back to the 1970s… Buckle Up: The “Stuckflation” Roller Coaster Straight Ahead!

To understand the true impact of debt and potentially failed debt , read this article on how the UK only a few years ago repaid the last debt from that era , with Germany doing so in 2010 and the US still “ making everyone whole ” ( Though I am sure Fed is ready to print some more money to help out . )
What however concerns me more than the resonance with the setup in the 1970 ’ s is that other aspects of our current situation remind me of the Post World War One time-frame .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ massive sovereign debt failures .
This time around , Ecuador has already declared bankruptcy , African nations have received an eight month moratorium and Argentina has declared its own moratorium and told creditors to get lost .
In the Middle East Oman and Bahrain are effectively shut out of the bond market and are seeing their CDS prices ( default insurance ) rise and rise .
Inflation is still lacking despite the desperate policy attempt to “ achieve 2 % ” .
But the bottlenecks and real capital destruction this crisis has created @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make everyone whole will see inflation returning again with a vengeance , sometime in the next two years .
Unemployment is hitting 20 % or worse in the US , and it will eventually fall , but 100-million plus American families have been impacted for this “ inconvenience ” here and now , and the UBI-type programs will act a bit like old trade unions did by requiring companies to bid up labor costs to get people to work any job .
In short , welcome back to the 1970s .
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Global Gold shared their thoughts on the most probable outlook for the global economy and titled that post .
The article was written with the mindset of warning our clients and readers of the pitfalls , as well as the opportunities , to expect in 2020 .
While we did not expect the economic speed at which the damage was done by the pandemic , there was enough reason to consider the potential of a very sluggish economy in the least , combined with the growing danger of inflation in the years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenario appears almost certain !
Now , for the fact checkers : you will hardly find the term “ stuckflation ” in Wikipedia , and certainly you will not find it in your dusty econ 101 textbook .
We came across the term in a comic ( see below ) , which we found amusing and , unfortunately , also quite applicable to the period we expect to witness ahead .
The bad news : this time is not just different , it ’ s much worse !
The IMF just released its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They describe this crisis as the worst since the Great Depression .
For the Advanced Economies , the IMF ’ s projections for economic growth in 2020 are –6.1 % .
According to the IMF , the economic contraction will be much worse than in 2008 : “ The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide , and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity .
As a result of the pandemic , the global economy is projected to contract sharply by – 3.0 % in 2020 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis.
” On the brighter side , the IMF also expects a sharp rebound in 2021 – the much-discussed “ V-shape ” recovery .
They project growth in Advanced Economies for 2021 at 4.5 % .
Globally , they project 5.8 % .
Now , anyone familiar with these projections knows that , so far , over the past 20 years or so , they ’ ve always proven to be too optimistic , often by a considerable margin .
I expect this time to be no different .
To be fair , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe risks of a worse outcome ” in their report .
Here ’ s what we wrote back in December : “ The New Normal : STUCKFLATION .
No , this is not a spelling error and we ’ re not referring to “ stagflation ” .
The new kid on the block , causing a stir among traders and economists , is “ Stuckflation ” .
It describes the current monetary policy stalemate , where central bankers continue to flood the market with liquidity , STUCK in a mode of ultra-loose monetary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk of INFLATION , which itself also appears to be STUCK in its lows despite all the money printing and the lower-than-low interest rates.
” Inflate or Die !
That has been the motto of central bankers for some time now .
And , if our warning was true in December , you can be assured it is even more true today .
As of now , we are only halfway through the COVID-19 crisis and the ( arguably ) radical lockdown policies that came with it .
Yet , the aggregate amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chart above ) , and the accompanying debt , has already surpassed the aggregates pumped into the global economy during the last crisis of 2008 and 2010 in their entirety .
It is equally noteworthy that running into this latest crisis , the levels of debt were already much higher than they had been prior to the 2008 crisis .
According to IMF statistics , the global debt to GDP ratio stood at precisely 200 % at the end of 2007 .
At the end of 2019 , the same ratio stood at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt had more than doubled , from US $ 116 trillion in 2007 to US $ 244 trillion in 2019 !
!
!
If you think this debt does not matter , you need to think again .
We are reaching record highs in public and private debt levels at a moment when interest rates are at historic lows , suppressed to that level by increasingly drastic artificial measures .
They will start to rise .
That change of direction can be sudden and sharp .
When that happens , we will have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our hands .

To understand the true impact of debt and potentially failed debt, read this article on how the UK only a few years ago repaid the last debt from that era, with Germany doing so in 2010 and the US still “making everyone whole” (Though I am sure Fed is ready to print some more money to help out.)
What however concerns me more than the resonance with the setup in the 1970’s is that other aspects of our current situation remind me of the Post World War One time-frame. This was the last time we saw truly massive sovereign debt failures. This time around, Ecuador has already declared bankruptcy, African nations have received an eight month moratorium and Argentina has declared its own moratorium and told creditors to get lost. In the Middle East Oman and Bahrain are effectively shut out of the bond market and are seeing their CDS prices (default insurance) rise and rise.
Inflation is still lacking despite the desperate policy attempt to “achieve 2%”. But the bottlenecks and real capital destruction this crisis has created, together with infinite spending and grants to make everyone whole will see inflation returning again with a vengeance, sometime in the next two years. Unemployment is hitting 20% or worse in the US, and it will eventually fall, but 100-million plus American families have been impacted for this “inconvenience” here and now, and the UBI-type programs will act a bit like old trade unions did by requiring companies to bid up labor costs to get people to work any job. In short, welcome back to the 1970s.
On December 18th of 2019, our team at Global Gold shared their thoughts on the most probable outlook for the global economy and titled that post “ STUCKFLATION – the New Normal ” . The article was written with the mindset of warning our clients and readers of the pitfalls, as well as the opportunities, to expect in 2020. While we did not expect the economic speed at which the damage was done by the pandemic, there was enough reason to consider the potential of a very sluggish economy in the least, combined with the growing danger of inflation in the years ahead. At this point, that scenario appears almost certain!
Now, for the fact checkers: you will hardly find the term “stuckflation” in Wikipedia, and certainly you will not find it in your dusty econ 101 textbook. We came across the term in a comic (see below), which we found amusing and, unfortunately, also quite applicable to the period we expect to witness ahead.
The bad news: this time is not just different, it’s much worse!
The IMF just released its April 2020 World Economic Outlook and it’s not pretty. They describe this crisis as the worst since the Great Depression.
For the Advanced Economies, the IMF’s projections for economic growth in 2020 are –6.1%. According to the IMF, the economic contraction will be much worse than in 2008: “The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by – 3.0% in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis.”
On the brighter side, the IMF also expects a sharp rebound in 2021 – the much-discussed “V-shape” recovery. They project growth in Advanced Economies for 2021 at 4.5%. Globally, they project 5.8%. Now, anyone familiar with these projections knows that, so far, over the past 20 years or so, they’ve always proven to be too optimistic, often by a considerable margin. I expect this time to be no different. To be fair, however, they do discuss the “severe risks of a worse outcome” in their report.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2020
Here’s what we wrote back in December: “The New Normal: STUCKFLATION. No, this is not a spelling error and we’re not referring to “stagflation”. The new kid on the block, causing a stir among traders and economists, is “Stuckflation”. It describes the current monetary policy stalemate, where central bankers continue to flood the market with liquidity, STUCK in a mode of ultra-loose monetary policy, well aware of the ultimate risk of INFLATION, which itself also appears to be STUCK in its lows despite all the money printing and the lower-than-low interest rates.”
Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus, 2009 – 2010 vs. 2020
Source: Brookings, IMF and BCA Calculations
Inflate or Die! That has been the motto of central bankers for some time now. And, if our warning was true in December, you can be assured it is even more true today.
As of now, we are only halfway through the COVID-19 crisis and the (arguably) radical lockdown policies that came with it. Yet, the aggregate amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus (see chart above), and the accompanying debt, has already surpassed the aggregates pumped into the global economy during the last crisis of 2008 and 2010 in their entirety. It is equally noteworthy that running into this latest crisis, the levels of debt were already much higher than they had been prior to the 2008 crisis.
According to IMF statistics, the global debt to GDP ratio stood at precisely 200% at the end of 2007. At the end of 2019, the same ratio stood at 287%. Moreover, the global debt had more than doubled, from US$ 116 trillion in 2007 to US$ 244 trillion in 2019!!!
If you think this debt does not matter, you need to think again. We are reaching record highs in public and private debt levels at a moment when interest rates are at historic lows, suppressed to that level by increasingly drastic artificial measures. They will start to rise. That change of direction can be sudden and sharp. When that happens, we will have an insolvency and foreclosure horror show on our hands.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Wall St and the Fed Will Soon Discover They’re not Invincible.

Many talking heads think the worst is over , at least for financial markets , the virus is peaking we ’ re told ( and will presumably just disappear ) , governments and central banks are apparently flooding the world with “ money ” .
The tone has become decidedly more optimistic than late march , even as the economy hurtles toward the ground .
“ We believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” On Bernanke ’ s second day before Congress , this time in front of Rep. Barney Frank ’ s House Financial Services Committee , the Fed chairman said the troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were adequately capitalized , and were in no danger of failing .
Forbes The Fed made interventions all the way down .
The bailouts this time around are much much larger .
All that tells us is the beast they are fighting is also much larger this time around .
The stock market does not track @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always try to interpret the stock markets moves in light of the current news but really half the time this never really makes sense .
In this bear market you ’ re going to see periods of panic and periods where the market recovers and people think the worst is over .
Take note of how the deterioration in the economy and news FOLLOWS deterioration in the stock market ( and the stock market is just following social mood ) .
Just as during the financial crisis .
The stock market has retraced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This sort of retracement is normal early within a bear market .
What it has done is alleviate the oversold condition and bring back optimism to financial markets — as shown by the daily sentiment index here which has reached about the 50 % level .
“ FOMO ” stands for “ fear of missing out ” .
It was a common rallying cry in the bull market and it has come back into fashion .
The term is used to describe the fear of missing out on rising prices .
Its renewed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I will get too in a moment .
Market breadth remains weak despite the rally .
I ’ ve shown this measure before which shows the ratio S & P500 equal weight/S & P500 .
It goes down as large market cap stocks get relatively stronger .
The ratio typically bottoms before the market .
I think another good sign of this extreme optimism still focused on tech is the price of Tesla , which is valued at $ 135bn despite never producing more than 500,000 cars in a year , never making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rating in the worst car market ever and the biggest oversupply of oil ever .
One extra thing .
Another interesting chart from EWI — Specs have gone heavily long the Euro despite there not being much upward price action .
Since the Euro is basically the mirror image of the dollar it adds to the bullish picture for the dollar I ’ ve discussed in prior posts .

Many talking heads think the worst is over, at least for financial markets, the virus is peaking we’re told (and will presumably just disappear), governments and central banks are apparently flooding the world with “money”. The tone has become decidedly more optimistic than late march, even as the economy hurtles toward the ground.
Ben Bernanke Quotes from the financial crisis…
17th May 2007
“We believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system,”
10th January 2008
“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” (The recession had started December 2007)
18th January 2008
“It has a strong labor force, excellent productivity and technology, and a deep and liquid financial market that is in the process of trying to repair itself”
June 9th 2008
“Despite a recent spike in the nation’s unemployment rate, the danger that the economy has fallen into a ‘substantial downturn’ appears to have waned”
July 16th 2008
Chairman Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve told Congress on Wednesday that he believes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will make it through the storm in the U.S. housing market.
On Bernanke’s second day before Congress, this time in front of Rep. Barney Frank’s House Financial Services Committee, the Fed chairman said the troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were adequately capitalized, and were in no danger of failing. Forbes
(Fannie and Freddie were bailed out on September 6th)
Here is a chart showing some Fed and government bailouts during the financial crisis.
The Fed made interventions all the way down. The bailouts this time around are much much larger. All that tells us is the beast they are fighting is also much larger this time around.
Markets are pushing the Fed around. When times are good the Fed looks omnipotent, when things go bad they are like a helpless kitten playing a bad game of Whack-a-mole.
The stock market does not track news or economic fundamentals. People will always try to interpret the stock markets moves in light of the current news but really half the time this never really makes sense. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
/u/MakeTotalDestr0i recently posted this image on the subreddit
It did’t make any sense the market screamed higher into late Feb as the pandemic emerged.
It made sense for a few weeks as the market crashed until about march 20th.
But since then the situation, especially economically has deteriorated dramatically yet the financial markets are doing fine.
A better way to view financial markets is social mood.
In this bear market you’re going to see periods of panic and periods where the market recovers and people think the worst is over. Take note of how the deterioration in the economy and news FOLLOWS deterioration in the stock market (and the stock market is just following social mood). Just as during the financial crisis.
The stock market has retraced a large portion of its decline. This sort of retracement is normal early within a bear market. What it has done is alleviate the oversold condition and bring back optimism to financial markets — as shown by the daily sentiment index here which has reached about the 50% level.
A similar recovery in sentiment also occurred in late 2018
“FOMO” stands for “fear of missing out”. It was a common rallying cry in the bull market and it has come back into fashion. The term is used to describe the fear of missing out on rising prices. Its renewed usage probably relates to tech stocks which I will get too in a moment.
Market breadth remains weak despite the rally. I’ve shown this measure before which shows the ratio S&P500 equal weight/S&P500. It goes down as large market cap stocks get relatively stronger. The ratio typically bottoms before the market.
Narrowing market breadth is a sign of growing risk aversion as investors focus on a narrow slice of the market. Investors are piling into large cap tech still. The Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio is surging.
A divergence can also be seen between higher and lower rated corporate bonds. This divergence actually started in 2019.
Spread between corporate debt and treasuries
I think another good sign of this extreme optimism still focused on tech is the price of Tesla, which is valued at $135bn despite never producing more than 500,000 cars in a year, never making an annual profit, a junk debt rating in the worst car market ever and the biggest oversupply of oil ever.
US stock valuations are still at some of their highest levels in history and would have to fall over 50% to reach the green line which represents “normal” valuations.
I think this still rampant optimism combined with a narrowing environment of risk taking is a setup for a much larger decline in the months ahead. At present the Fed is credited with this bear market rally but they shouldn’t be. Its just the way bear markets work
Once the financial markets resume their descent optimism over reopening the economy will descend with it.
“We are moving with alarming speed from 50-year lows in unemployment to what will likely be very high, although temporary, levels,” Powell said in a speech Thursday at the Brookings Institution. “When the virus does run its course, and it’s safe to go back to work and safe for businesses to open, then we would expect there to be a fairly quick rebound.”
Jerome Powell — 9th April


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--The Eurozone Services #PMI dropped to an unprecedented 11.7. Germany’s consumer confidence collapsed

The Eurozone Services #PMI dropped to an unprecedented 11.7. Germany’s consumer confidence collapsed way beyond anything seen during the GFC.

This happened JUST TODAY : # Germany 's consumer confidence collapsed way beyond anything seen during the GFC .
The @ @ @ @ @ to an unprecedented 11.7 .
US initial jobless claims rose another 4.43 million , totaling @ @ @ @ @ 5 weeks .
pic.twitter.com/0qjVbkyhAD

This happened JUST TODAY:#Germany's consumer confidence collapsed way beyond anything seen during the GFC.
The Eurozone Services #PMI dropped to an unprecedented 11.7.
US initial jobless claims rose another 4.43 million, totaling more than 26 million in 5 weeks. pic.twitter.com/0qjVbkyhAD
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--The Earnings’ Season So Far Is Disastrous. Real Estate Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop

Real Estate Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop We believe the Real Estate market may be the next big asset revaluation event as consumers continue to process the COVID-19 virus crisis and the consequences of this event .
The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event .
We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event .
We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of expectations and valuations that are , just now , starting to become “ real ” .
Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate… Before we continue much further , we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values .
Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them : The COVID-19 virus event is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the very early stages of consumer psychological processing .
All types of crisis events prompt some forms of typical human reaction .
We believe the Real Estate market may be the next big asset revaluation event as consumers continue to process the COVID-19 virus crisis and the consequences of this event .
Real Estate cycles typically transition through the following phases as supply and demand functions work through the markets .
Pay attention to the middle of this cycle chart .
In the Expansion and HyperSupply stages , once supply peaks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place in the market where buyers chase premium properties and push price levels moderately higher .
The Recession Cycle is typically a disruptive cycle that is the result of an economic/income disruption .
When people can ’ t earn enough to satisfy their debt obligations and or provide for their families , then the Real Estate cycle begins to contract .
A ‘ Wave of Defaults ’ Is Coming for Retail and Hotels The developer behind the Hudson Yards project says hotels and retail stores will be hit with a “ wave of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. economy .
The Pandemic Isn ’ t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System “ These are ruin problems , ” the paper states , exposure to which “ leads to a certain eventual extinction .
”

The Earnings' Season So Far Is Disastrous. Guidance erased, negative growth, dividends at risk and buybacks under threat. Markets seem to be betting entirely on monetary policy. pic.twitter.com/J59pXiDHzM — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) April 23, 2020
We believe the Real Estate market may be the next big asset revaluation event as consumers continue to process the COVID-19 virus crisis and the consequences of this event.
The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event. We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event. We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”. Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…
Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:
Real Estate Crash Predicted Part I – Click Here
Real Estate Crash Predicted Part II – Click Here
The COVID-19 virus event is a global crisis event that is currently in the very early stages of consumer psychological processing. All types of crisis events prompt some forms of typical human reaction. We believe the Real Estate market may be the next big asset revaluation event as consumers continue to process the COVID-19 virus crisis and the consequences of this event.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Real Estate Cycles
Real Estate cycles typically transition through the following phases as supply and demand functions work through the markets. Pay attention to the middle of this cycle chart. In the Expansion and HyperSupply stages, once supply peaks and prices somewhat peak/stabilize, a transition takes place in the market where buyers chase premium properties and push price levels moderately higher. The Recession Cycle is typically a disruptive cycle that is the result of an economic/income disruption. When people can’t earn enough to satisfy their debt obligations and or provide for their families, then the Real Estate cycle begins to contract.
(Source: www.carealtytraining.com)
The developer behind the Hudson Yards project says hotels and retail stores will be hit with a “wave of defaults” as the coronavirus batters the U.S. economy.
“These are ruin problems,” the paper states, exposure to which “leads to a certain eventual extinction.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--The Fed’s SPV’s at Treasury are not technically on balance sheet which would violate Federal Reserve

The Fed ’ s SPV ’ s at Treasury are not technically on balance sheet which would violate Federal Reserve @ @ @ @ @ pointed out by @ bondstrategist is the fact that aside from commercial paper , NONE @ @ @ @ @ to use .

The Fed’s SPV’s at Treasury are not technically on balance sheet which would violate Federal Reserve Act.
Less appreciated as pointed out by @bondstrategist is the fact that aside from commercial paper, NONE have been deployed and put to use.
Premature celebration? t.co/BwK6aHyR0J
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 23, 2020