investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--CASHED OUT: 84% Of Americans Already Want Another Stimulus Check…  30% Month Away From Running Out O

CASHED OUT: 84% Of Americans Already Want Another Stimulus Check…  30% Month Away From Running Out Of Money

Millions of people started receiving their emergency stimulus checks last week , but apparently it ’ s just a start .
According to a new survey , 84 % of Americans would already like to receive a second round of governmental help as the coronavirus pandemic continues .
The COVID-19 outbreak wiped out more than 22 million U.S. jobs in just about a month , essentially debilitating the national economy .
In response Congress passed a $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package that ensured virtually all Americans receive a one-time stimulus check of $ 1200 .
That money is a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wake of this pandemic , but let ’ s face it : $ 1200 doesn ’ t get you all that far in 2020 .
At this point it ’ s impossible to say when the economy will return to “ normal , ” and who knows how long it will take for the average American to get back on their feet .
This month ’ s rent may be paid , but next month represents an ever present problem for millions right now .
The survey , commissioned by WalletHub , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its revelation regarding stimulus checks , the survey also estimates that 160 million Americans are less than three months away from going completely broke .
A staggering 29 % of respondents are less than one month away from running out of money .
Tens of millions of Americans are applying for unemployment , and 56 % of surveyed participants said that unemployment payments shouldn ’ t exceed what a person was being paid in their last job .
Also , a third of respondents said they would donate some of their stimulus money @ @ @ @ @

via studyfinds
Millions of people started receiving their emergency stimulus checks last week, but apparently it’s just a start. According to a new survey, 84% of Americans would already like to receive a second round of governmental help as the coronavirus pandemic continues.
The COVID-19 outbreak wiped out more than 22 million U.S. jobs in just about a month, essentially debilitating the national economy. In response Congress passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus package that ensured virtually all Americans receive a one-time stimulus check of $1200. That money is a huge help for the millions struggling financially in the wake of this pandemic, but let’s face it: $1200 doesn’t get you all that far in 2020.
At this point it’s impossible to say when the economy will return to “normal,” and who knows how long it will take for the average American to get back on their feet. This month’s rent may be paid, but next month represents an ever present problem for millions right now.
The survey, commissioned by WalletHub, included 350 nationally representative respondents. Besides its revelation regarding stimulus checks, the survey also estimates that 160 million Americans are less than three months away from going completely broke. A staggering 29% of respondents are less than one month away from running out of money.
Tens of millions of Americans are applying for unemployment, and 56% of surveyed participants said that unemployment payments shouldn’t exceed what a person was being paid in their last job. Also, a third of respondents said they would donate some of their stimulus money to coronavirus relief funds.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Media Meltdown: Axios Wants Taxpayer Bailout…  Fox Execs Take Paycuts…  CNN Not Returning To Offices

Media Meltdown: Axios Wants Taxpayer Bailout…  Fox Execs Take Paycuts…  CNN Not Returning To Offices Until At Least September

News site Axios announced Wednesday that it had qualified for a small-business loan as part of the economic stimulus passed amid the coronavirus outbreak .
In a blog post , editor Jim VandeHei indicated that the company was suffering financially because of the hit to its events business and the hit to advertising caused by the economic fallout from the pandemic .
“ We are in the somewhat unique position of being both a media company , which covers government and business , and a job-creating small business with a national presence .
So we wanted to be fully transparent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We have taken a financial hit like other small businesses , ” he added .
“ The media , broadly speaking , is getting crushed by the economic fallout.
” Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch to Forgo Salary , Execs to Take Pay Cuts Tiered pay cuts of 15 percent to 50 percent will impact other executives at the media giant .
Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch will forgo his salary amid the novel coronavirus pandemic and 700 employees at the company will see pay reductions , the executive said in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s executive officers , which include mogul Rupert Murdoch as well as chief operating officer John Nallen , chief legal officer Viet Dinh and chief financial officer Steve Tomsic will go without pay until Sept. 30 of this year , the memo said .
Lachlan Murduch wrote that the moves were needed so that “ to the greatest extent possible , we are able to protect our full-time colleagues with salary and benefit continuation during the period we are most affected by the crisis.
” Rupert Murdoch ’ s total compensation in fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took home $ 42.1 million in total pay , per a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission last September .
Salary cuts will hit other Fox executives in tiers , Murdoch added : “ The rest of my direct-report executive team will reduce their salaries by 50 percent through the same period .
And from May 1 through July 31 , 2020 , our executives at the VP level and above will reduce their salaries by 15 percent.
” CNN Boss Tells Staff They Will Not Return to Offices Until at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staffers back into its offices until at least September .
In an internal email obtained by The Daily Beast , network chief Jeff Zucker told staff that the vast majority of company staff will “ not be returning to the office in any significant way ” before the end of summer .
“ Our expectation is that the rest of you will not return before early September , with a few exceptions in July for newsgathering and some in August , depending on the political conventions , ” Zucker said , noting that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ But , to be clear , production of our programs will continue from home , as is it is now , until the end of summer.
” Over the past several weeks , many news outlets have begun to plan out what a physical return to company offices would look like .
In a staff-wide email earlier this month , Fox News set May 4 as a target to reopen its offices , though given that New York City is closed down until May 15 , the network will almost certainly @ @ @ @ @

Axios qualifies for small-business loan amid pandemic
News site Axios announced Wednesday that it had qualified for a small-business loan as part of the economic stimulus passed amid the coronavirus outbreak.
In a blog post, editor Jim VandeHei indicated that the company was suffering financially because of the hit to its events business and the hit to advertising caused by the economic fallout from the pandemic.
“We are in the somewhat unique position of being both a media company, which covers government and business, and a job-creating small business with a national presence. So we wanted to be fully transparent about our thinking,” VandeHei wrote.
“We have taken a financial hit like other small businesses,” he added. “The media, broadly speaking, is getting crushed by the economic fallout.”
Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch to Forgo Salary, Execs to Take Pay Cuts
Tiered pay cuts of 15 percent to 50 percent will impact other executives at the media giant.
Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch will forgo his salary amid the novel coronavirus pandemic and 700 employees at the company will see pay reductions, the executive said in an internal memo Wednesday.
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Fox’s executive officers, which include mogul Rupert Murdoch as well as chief operating officer John Nallen, chief legal officer Viet Dinh and chief financial officer Steve Tomsic will go without pay until Sept. 30 of this year, the memo said.
Lachlan Murduch wrote that the moves were needed so that “to the greatest extent possible, we are able to protect our full-time colleagues with salary and benefit continuation during the period we are most affected by the crisis.”
Rupert Murdoch’s total compensation in fiscal 2019 was $42.1 million while Lachlan took home $42.1 million in total pay, per a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission last September.
Salary cuts will hit other Fox executives in tiers, Murdoch added: “The rest of my direct-report executive team will reduce their salaries by 50 percent through the same period. And from May 1 through July 31, 2020, our executives at the VP level and above will reduce their salaries by 15 percent.”
CNN Boss Tells Staff They Will Not Return to Offices Until at Least September
CNN won’t send staffers back into its offices until at least September. In an internal email obtained by The Daily Beast, network chief Jeff Zucker told staff that the vast majority of company staff will “not be returning to the office in any significant way” before the end of summer. “Our expectation is that the rest of you will not return before early September, with a few exceptions in July for newsgathering and some in August, depending on the political conventions,” Zucker said, noting that some dates could be subject to change. “But, to be clear, production of our programs will continue from home, as is it is now, until the end of summer.”
Over the past several weeks, many news outlets have begun to plan out what a physical return to company offices would look like. In a staff-wide email earlier this month, Fox News set May 4 as a target to reopen its offices, though given that New York City is closed down until May 15, the network will almost certainly push back this deadline.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--[Bloomberg terminal] Credit Suisse is telling clients of super-leveraged bullish oil ETF that they a

[Bloomberg terminal] Credit Suisse is telling clients of super-leveraged bullish oil ETF that they are going to lose all their investment (UWTIF)

It was n't because of lack of warnings !
!
!
Credit Suisse is telling clients of super-leveraged bullish oil @ @ @ @ @ to lose all their investment | # OOTT pic.twitter.com/hqA5CqfcHJ

It wasn't because of lack of warnings!!! Credit Suisse is telling clients of super-leveraged bullish oil ETF that they are going to lose all their investment | #OOTT pic.twitter.com/hqA5CqfcHJ
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--USO is Going to Implode, Along With Your Money

This should be obvious to anyone who hasn ’ t been living under a rock , but given the mass influx of Robinhood and other retail into $ USO in recent days , it apparently isn ’ t .
What $ USO Is and Isn ’ t United States Oil is not a bet on the price of oil , just like VIX ETFs ( UVXY , TVIX ) are not bets on the spot price of VIX .
It ’ s a bet on the yield of rolling 1-month oil futures into the next month .
Up until today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its assets in front month futures – it held around 25 % of all oil futures contracts for May prior to the spectacular blow-up in that market .
It now holds over 25 % of June ’ s contracts .
Along with other speculators , $ USO can not actually take physical delivery of this oil .
It is thus forced to sell and roll those contracts every month to get them off its books .
This makes it a shitty buy-and-hold vehicle at any time , but these are special times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is fucked .
No travel and ( next to ) no economy means ( next to ) no oil consumption .
Along with the Saudi-Russian price war , this has caused a massive glut of production that needs to be stored somewhere .
These oil futures are based on delivery to a specific place with limited storage capacity : Cushing , Oklahoma .
The oil storage problem is not getting better and certainly isn ’ t going to evaporate in a few weeks when $ USO next needs to roll contracts .
When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contracts , they need someone who can actually receive and store the crude oil to buy them .
May was a spectacular blow-up for a variety of reasons , including non-fundamentals-related front-running of contract rebalancing ( this is a problem with many products ) .
But one crucial reason was the need to dump a full quarter of all futures contracts in a few days onto limited storage/reception capacity and the fact that no one is fucking buying oil .
Hence the insane selling even in negative territory – if you can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy contracts at/near settlement .
$ USO ’ s value has declined precipitously along with the collapse of oil/futures markets .
Its underlying assets ( futures contracts and some Treasury hedges ) have dropped in value from $ 13 a share in January to $ 2 a share now .
$ USO has decided to “ fix ” its exposure and contract rolling problem by spreading itself out into July and August contracts .
It now “ only ” holds 55 % of its assets in June contracts .
It can also no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital from dumb retail bagholders ( you ) and is thus trading as a closed-end fund .
Oil futures are still in deep fucking contango – which means later month futures are trading way higher than closer months .
Makes sense , right ?
What doesn ’ t make sense is investing in a product that has to sell those dirt cheap front month contracts to buy more expensive contracts every fucking month .
June contracts will need to be rolled in early May .
Who is going to buy and store all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ USO still needs to dump $ 1.6 billion in June futures ( read : your money ) to get out of this mess , and that ’ s at a price of $ 11.57 per contract .
If those contracts go to zero again , that ’ s the majority of the fund ’ s remaining assets gone .
Zilch .
And if they go negative ?
The ETF will be on the hook for those losses .
$ USO is currently trading at ~ $ 2.74 after hours while the value of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is $ 2.06 .
That ’ s a 33 % premium based on retail idiocy !
The fund is going to liquidate just like $ OIL , soon , and its value could be completely obliterated in the process .
No one holds the bag like retail and pensions .
Get the fuck out while you still can .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by DaGhostOfMarx
This should be obvious to anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock, but given the mass influx of Robinhood and other retail into $USO in recent days, it apparently isn’t.
What $USO Is and Isn’t
United States Oil is not a bet on the price of oil, just like VIX ETFs (UVXY, TVIX) are not bets on the spot price of VIX. It’s a bet on the yield of rolling 1-month oil futures into the next month. Up until today, the fund held the vast majority of its assets in front month futures – it held around 25% of all oil futures contracts for May prior to the spectacular blow-up in that market. It now holds over 25% of June’s contracts.
Along with other speculators, $USO cannot actually take physical delivery of this oil. It is thus forced to sell and roll those contracts every month to get them off its books. This makes it a shitty buy-and-hold vehicle at any time, but these are special times.
The Fundamentals
Everyone knows that the oil market is fucked. No travel and (next to) no economy means (next to) no oil consumption. Along with the Saudi-Russian price war, this has caused a massive glut of production that needs to be stored somewhere. These oil futures are based on delivery to a specific place with limited storage capacity: Cushing, Oklahoma. The oil storage problem is not getting better and certainly isn’t going to evaporate in a few weeks when $USO next needs to roll contracts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
When speculators and ETFs like $USO sell contracts, they need someone who can actually receive and store the crude oil to buy them. May was a spectacular blow-up for a variety of reasons, including non-fundamentals-related front-running of contract rebalancing (this is a problem with many products). But one crucial reason was the need to dump a full quarter of all futures contracts in a few days onto limited storage/reception capacity and the fact that no one is fucking buying oil. Hence the insane selling even in negative territory – if you can’t store, you can’t buy contracts at/near settlement.
$USO “Restructuring” and the Contango Shitshow
$USO’s value has declined precipitously along with the collapse of oil/futures markets. Its underlying assets (futures contracts and some Treasury hedges) have dropped in value from $13 a share in January to $2 a share now. $USO has decided to “fix” its exposure and contract rolling problem by spreading itself out into July and August contracts. It now “only” holds 55% of its assets in June contracts. It can also no longer create new shares to draw in capital from dumb retail bagholders (you) and is thus trading as a closed-end fund.
Oil futures are still in deep fucking contango – which means later month futures are trading way higher than closer months. Makes sense, right? What doesn’t make sense is investing in a product that has to sell those dirt cheap front month contracts to buy more expensive contracts every fucking month. June contracts will need to be rolled in early May. Who is going to buy and store all that oil? No one! $USO still needs to dump $1.6 billion in June futures (read: your money) to get out of this mess, and that’s at a price of $11.57 per contract. If those contracts go to zero again, that’s the majority of the fund’s remaining assets gone. Zilch. And if they go negative? The ETF will be on the hook for those losses.
$USO is currently trading at ~$2.74 after hours while the value of underlying assets per share (NAV) is $2.06. That’s a 33% premium based on retail idiocy! The fund is going to liquidate just like $OIL, soon, and its value could be completely obliterated in the process. No one holds the bag like retail and pensions. Get the fuck out while you still can.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Reopening is a 100% Chance of Failure

Reopening is a 100% Chance of Failure

Folks , the conservative states in the US are trying to restart the economies quicker than any other country facing a COVID outbreak has done prior .
On top of that , they are doing so with less tools and abilities than other countries .
It has no chance of succeeding , and I will explain why .
Say what you want about China , they are the undisputed gods of contact tracing .
The government presses one button and can see any other person ( and their social score ) that you ’ ve interacted with over X amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their level of tracing , one single infection ( who tested NEGATIVE 4 times AND was quarantined 14 days ) , started a long chain of community transmission .
The city now has roadblocks and some are calling it Wuhan 2.0 .
How did this happen ?
Despite masks , mandatory quarantines , contact tracing , this still resulted in a brand new outbreak .
The nucleic acid tests in China failed to detect a case in Harbin ’ s patient 0 on 4 attempts .
And that ’ s with the tests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tests in the US are being used incorrectly and providing even less accurate results .
Contact Tracing / Enforced Quarantines DO NOT EXIST IN USA : No link , common sense The US has extremely limited capacity to perform contact tracing .
Wuhan had 10,000+ full time workers purely devoted to contact tracing .
No state has anything comparable , especially states like Georgia and Texas .
Also there ’ s no such thing as mandatory , government-enforced quarantines .
So peeps are definitely sneaking out to grab McDick ’ s and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story short the US will fail miserably on a reopening and set the entire country back from the attempt .
Morale will dwindle as it becomes clear that this virus can not be contained without a massive coordinated effort , and even then there will be setbacks ( see Harbin , see Germany , etc. )
.
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by chuck_portis
Folks, the conservative states in the US are trying to restart the economies quicker than any other country facing a COVID outbreak has done prior. On top of that, they are doing so with less tools and abilities than other countries. It has no chance of succeeding, and I will explain why.
New outbreak in Harbin China: www.globaltimes.cn/content/1186194.shtml
Say what you want about China, they are the undisputed gods of contact tracing. The government presses one button and can see any other person (and their social score) that you’ve interacted with over X amount of days. However, even with their level of tracing, one single infection (who tested NEGATIVE 4 times AND was quarantined 14 days), started a long chain of community transmission.
The city now has roadblocks and some are calling it Wuhan 2.0. How did this happen? Despite masks, mandatory quarantines, contact tracing, this still resulted in a brand new outbreak.
Faulty Testing Equipment at Home: www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/abbott-laboratories-coronavirus-rapid-test/index.html
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The nucleic acid tests in China failed to detect a case in Harbin’s patient 0 on 4 attempts. And that’s with the tests working as expected. Turns out, the tests in the US are being used incorrectly and providing even less accurate results.
Contact Tracing / Enforced Quarantines DO NOT EXIST IN USA: No link, common sense
The US has extremely limited capacity to perform contact tracing. Wuhan had 10,000+ full time workers purely devoted to contact tracing. No state has anything comparable, especially states like Georgia and Texas. Also there’s no such thing as mandatory, government-enforced quarantines. So peeps are definitely sneaking out to grab McDick’s and dodge the GrubHub delivery fee.
Long story short the US will fail miserably on a reopening and set the entire country back from the attempt. Morale will dwindle as it becomes clear that this virus cannot be contained without a massive coordinated effort, and even then there will be setbacks (see Harbin, see Germany, etc.).
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--The thesis that MMT is only limited by inflation is flawed. It ignores asset bubbles. It ignore syst

The thesis that MMT is only limited by inflation is flawed .
It ignores asset bubbles .
It ignore system @ @ @ @ @ .
If Top 40 % get spoils , inflation never rises b/c they save/hoard it @ @ @ @ @ .
USA needs major reforms .
Not endless debt into this system pic.twitter.com/UfQ8CeW7Iw

The thesis that MMT is only limited by inflation is flawed. It ignores asset bubbles. It ignore system rigged toward Top 40%. If Top 40% get spoils, inflation never rises b/c they save/hoard it. Look at monetary velocity. USA needs major reforms. Not endless debt into this system pic.twitter.com/UfQ8CeW7Iw
— M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) April 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Long-term opinions on Amazon? Skeptical

Long-term opinions on Amazon? Skeptical

I ’ ve been watching AMZN shares go loco over the last few days and I ’ m wondering how sustainable this growth is .
The main reason I ’ m skeptical is that I think we will see a revival of nationalism and protectionist policies after the pandemic .
The failure of many European countries to have their own manufacturing resources is not going to be forgotten when the pandemic ends .
Countries will want to rebuild national companies and will shun excessive reliance on foreign firms .
For what I ’ m talking about , look at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PPE from Turkey in the UK .
I believe Amazon in particular will attract a lot of scrutiny .
There might be calls for european e-commerce champions .
The European Commission launched an investigation into Amazon for anti-competitive practices in 2017 .
Given the political climate I anticipate at the end of this , whether the commission gets around to soon publishing their findings might be irrelevant… I also have a feeling Amazon might be heading towards a PR shitstorm .
According to a Reuters article today , “ Cases of the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 50 of Amazon ’ s U.S. warehouses , according to the New York Times .
Amazon has 519 facilities in its U.S. distribution infrastructure , according to logistics consultancy MWPVL International Inc. ” This information alone is not detrimental , but combined with workers complaining of unsafe conditions , there might be serious long-term consequences to this .
No matter how much money they make during this pandemic , what would it do to their reputation if they become known as “ the company that put employees ’ lives at risk and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of the Coronavirus pandemic ” ?
Of course , Amazon might change its ways over the coming days/weeks .
Especially if workers start staying home instead of heading into work .
But I ’ m curious as to what other people think about the current AMZN trend .

by kctmo
I’ve been watching AMZN shares go loco over the last few days and I’m wondering how sustainable this growth is.
The main reason I’m skeptical is that I think we will see a revival of nationalism and protectionist policies after the pandemic. The failure of many European countries to have their own manufacturing resources is not going to be forgotten when the pandemic ends. Countries will want to rebuild national companies and will shun excessive reliance on foreign firms. For what I’m talking about, look at the recent situation with the delayed delivery of PPE from Turkey in the UK.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I believe Amazon in particular will attract a lot of scrutiny. There might be calls for european e-commerce champions. The European Commission launched an investigation into Amazon for anti-competitive practices in 2017. Given the political climate I anticipate at the end of this, whether the commission gets around to soon publishing their findings might be irrelevant…
I also have a feeling Amazon might be heading towards a PR shitstorm. According to a Reuters article today, “Cases of the virus have been reported among staff from more than 50 of Amazon’s U.S. warehouses, according to the New York Times. Amazon has 519 facilities in its U.S. distribution infrastructure, according to logistics consultancy MWPVL International Inc.” This information alone is not detrimental, but combined with workers complaining of unsafe conditions, there might be serious long-term consequences to this. No matter how much money they make during this pandemic, what would it do to their reputation if they become known as “the company that put employees’ lives at risk and put profits before their welfare in the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic”?
Of course, Amazon might change its ways over the coming days/weeks. Especially if workers start staying home instead of heading into work. But I’m curious as to what other people think about the current AMZN trend.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--US HY Credit Spreads: some might argue the Fed is driving a wedge between the market vs fundamentals

Summary • The Fed ’ s backstop helped bring down credit spreads – both investment grade and high yield • Banks appear positioned to make it through the Corona Crash according to their CDS spreads • Small US energy companies may need to lean on Federal Reserve support should oil stay low Junk bonds , those rated BB or lower , surged earlier this month as the US Federal Reserve announced they would be buying high yield ETFs for the first time in history .
The announcement came on April 9 , less than three weeks following the equity market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news , speculative grade bond ETFs rose sharply – HYG , JNK & USHY each gained more than 6 % .
Not surprsingly , the ETFs also experienced major inflows .
HYG may be on pace for its biggest capital inflow month in years .
After the Federal Reserve announced their buy program , credit spreads narrowed considerably , but that was also the trend since the March low .
The S & P 500 had already risen 23 % and US high yield credit funds were up 13 % .
The S @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while junk bonds have consolidated their gains .
Nevertheless , there is still some concern among market participants in the bond space .
Currently , the US Investment Grade Credit Spread , picture below , is about 2.3 % .
That is the same level as the peak in early 2016 , a time in which US corporate earnings were particularly weak and recession fears were significant ahead of the presidential election .
These charts are from the latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor .

US HY Credit Spreads: some might argue the Fed is driving a wedge between the market vs fundamentals… t.co/Lwh0R9RgTW pic.twitter.com/YR2U9BHBrP — Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts) April 21, 2020
Summary
• The Fed’s backstop helped bring down credit spreads – both investment grade and high yield
• Banks appear positioned to make it through the Corona Crash according to their CDS spreads
• Small US energy companies may need to lean on Federal Reserve support should oil stay low
Junk bonds, those rated BB or lower, surged earlier this month as the US Federal Reserve announced they would be buying high yield ETFs for the first time in history. The announcement came on April 9, less than three weeks following the equity market low on March 23. On the news, speculative grade bond ETFs rose sharply – HYG, JNK & USHY each gained more than 6%. Not surprsingly, the ETFs also experienced major inflows. HYG may be on pace for its biggest capital inflow month in years.
After the Federal Reserve announced their buy program, credit spreads narrowed considerably, but that was also the trend since the March low. The S&P 500 had already risen 23% and US high yield credit funds were up 13%. The S&P 500 has drifted higher since while junk bonds have consolidated their gains.
Nevertheless, there is still some concern among market participants in the bond space. Currently, the US Investment Grade Credit Spread, picture below, is about 2.3%. That is the same level as the peak in early 2016, a time in which US corporate earnings were particularly weak and recession fears were significant ahead of the presidential election.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
These charts are from the latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor.
www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2020/04/21/Fed-to-the-Junky-Rescue


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains new study finds

The study was carried out by Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou , China and published @ @ @ @ @ released on website medRxiv.org on Sunday .
A new study in China has found that @ @ @ @ @ into at least 30 different variations .
The results showed that medical officials have vastly @ @ @ @ @ the virus to mutate , in findings that different strains have affected different parts of @ @ @ @ @ potential difficulties in finding an overall cure .
The study was carried out by Professor @ @ @ @ @ Zhejiang University in Hangzhou , China and published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on @ @ @ @ @ Li ’ s team analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou @ @ @ @ @ 1,264 reported cases , and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells @ @ @ @ @ mutations were detected , of which 19 were previously undiscovered .

The study was carried out by Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China and published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on website medRxiv.org on Sunday.
A new study in China has found that the novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different variations.
The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in findings that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an overall cure.
The study was carried out by Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China and published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on website medRxiv.org on Sunday.
Li’s team analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.
More than 30 different mutations were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Provides Statement on Crude Oil Contracts and Margin Loss; Recognizes Pro

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Provides Statement on Crude Oil Contracts and Margin Loss; Recognizes Provisionary Loss of ~$88M

Several Interactive Brokers LLC ( “ IBLLC ” ) customers held long positions in these CME and ICE Europe contracts @ @ @ @ @ they incurred losses in excess of the equity in their accounts .
IBLLC has fulfilled @ @ @ @ @ variation margin settlements with the respective clearinghouses on behalf of its customers .
As a @ @ @ @ @ recognized an aggregate provisionary loss of approximately $ 88 million .

www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Interactive+Brokers+%28IBKR%29+Provides+Statement+on+Crude+Oil+Contracts+and+Margin+Loss/16767830.html
Several Interactive Brokers LLC (“IBLLC”) customers held long positions in these CME and ICE Europe contracts, and as a result they incurred losses in excess of the equity in their accounts. IBLLC has fulfilled the firm’s required variation margin settlements with the respective clearinghouses on behalf of its customers. As a result, the Company has recognized an aggregate provisionary loss of approximately $88 million.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--The Fed may have to buy used cars as well.

The Fed may have to buy used cars as well .
Worst decline in value since the global financial crisis @ @ @ @ @ ripple effect on consumer ’ s buying power at large will be significant .
Not @ @ @ @ @ that are already down ~40 % in March .
pic.twitter.com/RaBd4vcOTY

The Fed may have to buy used cars as well.
Worst decline in value since the global financial crisis & tech bust.
The ripple effect on consumer’s buying power at large will be significant.
Not looking good for car sales that are already down ~40% in March. pic.twitter.com/RaBd4vcOTY
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Too many people focused on negative oil prices while missing the rally on producers.

Too many people focused on negative oil prices while missing the rally on producers .
pic.twitter.com/ywdMTgNCpV Cup & handle and @ @ @ @ @ be filled .
Oil & gas producers are one of the few industries that rallied @ @ @ @ @ that , but they outperformed the S & P 500 by 8 pct pts !
@ @ @ @ @ markets today .
pic.twitter.com/6xid66OFYJ

Too many people focused on negative oil prices while missing the rally on producers. pic.twitter.com/ywdMTgNCpV
Cup & handle and a 16% gap to be filled.
Resilient.
Oil & gas producers are one of the few industries that rallied this week.
Not only that, but they outperformed the S&P 500 by 8 pct pts!
That’s after WTI prices went negative…!
Least favorite industry in the markets today. pic.twitter.com/6xid66OFYJ
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Is it Marshal Law?

Is it Marshal Law?

Comrades , after the Meridian cornavirus enforcement police received several calls from compliant citizens , a dangerous group of subversive moms were identified engaging in non-approved playground activity against the interests of the state .
Local authorities activated an emergency response task force & arrested the lead scofflaw mom at the park .
According to video smuggled from the park by an underground network of rebellious female breeders , Mrs. Sarah Brady was instructed by the COVID-19 compliance officers to vacate the playground .
Ms. Brady refused to comply with the order and was subsequently handcuffed and arrested for violations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misdemeanor trespassing .
IDAHO – Meridian officers made several attempts to help BRADY adhere to the rules .
She was non-compliant and forced officers to place her under arrest to resolve the issue .
She was arrested for trespassing .
These are very trying times and the Meridian Police Department supports the public ’ s right to assemble for peaceful protest , however the right does not include damaging public property or ignoring closures of City property and facilities ( link ) The brave officers of Idaho law enforcement and coronavirus compliance put @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this outlaw .
However , the fate of the world hangs in the balance , and the Meridian police are thankful for compliant citizens who used the tip-line to notify the task-force of this threatening and subversive activity .
Fortunately , this time the thin-blue-line was able to overcome the resistance and suppress the rebellion ; but this example should remind us all it takes the entire village to stay alert & report these dangerous scofflaws immediately .
All rogue citizens must be contained , especially the breeders , lest they put our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Playground moms are some of the most dangerous and subversive elements within our society ; some even carry the potential for home-schooling .
Breeding citizens are a big concern , they may not just carry biologics they could possibly carry a more alarming virus of wrong-thought , potentially even perspectives on freedom , against the interests of the state .
During these stressful times any wrong-thought , without regard for our collective need , is an indication a breeder citizen may be a subversive .
Rogue citizens would be subversive to our new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mitigation efforts .
The COVID Compliance Ministry appreciates good citizens who comply with the interests of the state .
Good citizenship is rewarded with enhanced credits allowing access to a safe COVID Compliant Society .
A safer society ; where the odds will always be in your favor .

Comrades, after the Meridian cornavirus enforcement police received several calls from compliant citizens, a dangerous group of subversive moms were identified engaging in non-approved playground activity against the interests of the state. Local authorities activated an emergency response task force & arrested the lead scofflaw mom at the park.
According to video smuggled from the park by an underground network of rebellious female breeders, Mrs. Sarah Brady was instructed by the COVID-19 compliance officers to vacate the playground. Ms. Brady refused to comply with the order and was subsequently handcuffed and arrested for violations of the state lock-down, ie. misdemeanor trespassing.
IDAHO – Meridian officers made several attempts to help BRADY adhere to the rules. She was non-compliant and forced officers to place her under arrest to resolve the issue. She was arrested for trespassing. These are very trying times and the Meridian Police Department supports the public’s right to assemble for peaceful protest, however the right does not include damaging public property or ignoring closures of City property and facilities (link)
The brave officers of Idaho law enforcement and coronavirus compliance put their lives on the line to capture this outlaw. However, the fate of the world hangs in the balance, and the Meridian police are thankful for compliant citizens who used the tip-line to notify the task-force of this threatening and subversive activity.
Fortunately, this time the thin-blue-line was able to overcome the resistance and suppress the rebellion; but this example should remind us all it takes the entire village to stay alert & report these dangerous scofflaws immediately.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
All rogue citizens must be contained, especially the breeders, lest they put our compliant society at risk of infection. Playground moms are some of the most dangerous and subversive elements within our society; some even carry the potential for home-schooling.
Breeding citizens are a big concern, they may not just carry biologics they could possibly carry a more alarming virus of wrong-thought, potentially even perspectives on freedom, against the interests of the state.
During these stressful times any wrong-thought, without regard for our collective need, is an indication a breeder citizen may be a subversive. Rogue citizens would be subversive to our new society and must be controlled with extreme mitigation efforts.
The COVID Compliance Ministry appreciates good citizens who comply with the interests of the state. Good citizenship is rewarded with enhanced credits allowing access to a safe COVID Compliant Society. A safer society; where the odds will always be in your favor.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--American Universities, the most overpriced in the world, show students how not to run a business. Ma

American Universities, the most overpriced in the world, show students how not to run a business. Many will go bankrupt

Imagine 40 years ago .
Colleges could stay afloat with costs at 1 , revenues at 1.2 .
Now fast forward 40 years .
Costs are 1.8 , revenues are 4 .
They can ’ t get it done .
Lesson , doesn ’ t matter how much you bring in if you allow incompetent bureaucrats to run things .
Most campuses in the United States are sitting empty .
Courses are online , students are at home .
And administrators are trying to figure out how to make the finances of that work .
“ The math is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who studies higher ed finance at Seton Hall University in New Jersey .
“ Colleges are stressed both on the revenue side and on the expenditure side.
” On one end of the equation , colleges are spending money to take classes online , in some situations purchasing software , training professors or outsourcing to online-only institutions .
That ’ s on top of refunds for room and board and parts of tuition .
On the other side , money isn ’ t coming back in , in the form of expected tuition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , conferences on campus and summer camps .
College endowments , which can sometimes offer some insulation from hard financial times , have also taken a hit .
“ This will touch every sector of higher education .
Every size of institution , every region of the country , ” says Dominique Baker , a professor of education policy at Southern Methodist University in Dallas .
And it already has .
The University of Michigan estimates it may lose up to $ 1 billion by the end of the year .
For the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 70 million .
Hundreds of schools — including some with endowments of more than a billion dollars , like Duke University , Virginia Tech and Brown — have announced hiring freezes .
Other institutions have cut pay and have laid off staff and contractors .
In Vermont , state officials have floated potential college shutdowns .
Despite the fact that no institution will be spared , says Baker , the pandemic will affect different institutions in disproportionate ways .
“ For some colleges , this is an existential threat that means they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she says , while others will have the financial backing to weather the storm .
What keeps her up at night ?
Those institutions that serve more vulnerable populations and are in more remote or rural places .
Because , she says , they have the potential to feel the financial pain even more .
There , students rely on colleges for services such as health care , campus jobs , child care and free food .
Baker says those places , which have already been largely underfunded , will be hard-pressed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attempt a buoy : In the CARES relief package passed in March , Congress allocated about $ 14 billion for colleges and universities , though many have said that ’ s not enough .
“ Woefully inadequate ” is what the American Council on Education called it .
The group , along with 40 other higher education organizations , have lobbied Congress for about $ 46 billion more .
And that ’ s a conservative ask , they say .
Additional state funding for higher education also seems unlikely , considering revenues are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy on hold .
In most states , funding for higher education isn ’ t constitutionally required , so when states are strapped to balance their budgets , it ’ s often an easy target .
“ When state budgets take a hit , higher ed really takes a hit , ” says Kelchen .
This happened in the last recession , more than a decade ago , and in many places , state funding for higher education never rebounded .
With less funding , colleges have continued to lean on tuition .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ college enrollment nationwide has fallen about 11 % .
Every sector — public state schools , community colleges , for-profits and private liberal arts schools — has felt the decline .
Over the years , international students , who often pay full tuition , have helped .
But now with travel restrictions in play , schools are expecting very few of them this fall .

Imagine 40 years ago. Colleges could stay afloat with costs at 1, revenues at 1.2.
Now fast forward 40 years. Costs are 1.8, revenues are 4. They can’t get it done.
Lesson, doesn’t matter how much you bring in if you allow incompetent bureaucrats to run things.
via NPR
Most campuses in the United States are sitting empty. Courses are online, students are at home. And administrators are trying to figure out how to make the finances of that work.
“The math is not pretty,” says Robert Kelchen, who studies higher ed finance at Seton Hall University in New Jersey. “Colleges are stressed both on the revenue side and on the expenditure side.”
On one end of the equation, colleges are spending money to take classes online, in some situations purchasing software, training professors or outsourcing to online-only institutions. That’s on top of refunds for room and board and parts of tuition. On the other side, money isn’t coming back in, in the form of expected tuition and revenue from events such as athletics, conferences on campus and summer camps. College endowments, which can sometimes offer some insulation from hard financial times, have also taken a hit.
“This will touch every sector of higher education. Every size of institution, every region of the country,” says Dominique Baker, a professor of education policy at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
And it already has. The University of Michigan estimates it may lose up to $1 billion by the end of the year. For the University of Kentucky, it’s $70 million. Hundreds of schools — including some with endowments of more than a billion dollars, like Duke University, Virginia Tech and Brown — have announced hiring freezes. Other institutions have cut pay and have laid off staff and contractors. In Vermont, state officials have floated potential college shutdowns.
Despite the fact that no institution will be spared, says Baker, the pandemic will affect different institutions in disproportionate ways. “For some colleges, this is an existential threat that means they’ll have to close,” she says, while others will have the financial backing to weather the storm. What keeps her up at night? Those institutions that serve more vulnerable populations and are in more remote or rural places. Because, she says, they have the potential to feel the financial pain even more. There, students rely on colleges for services such as health care, campus jobs, child care and free food. Baker says those places, which have already been largely underfunded, will be hard-pressed to stay afloat.
The federal government did attempt a buoy: In the CARES relief package passed in March, Congress allocated about $14 billion for colleges and universities, though many have said that’s not enough. “Woefully inadequate” is what the American Council on Education called it. The group, along with 40 other higher education organizations, have lobbied Congress for about $46 billion more. And that’s a conservative ask, they say.
Additional state funding for higher education also seems unlikely, considering revenues are way down across the country from an economy on hold. In most states, funding for higher education isn’t constitutionally required, so when states are strapped to balance their budgets, it’s often an easy target. “When state budgets take a hit, higher ed really takes a hit,” says Kelchen. This happened in the last recession, more than a decade ago, and in many places, state funding for higher education never rebounded.
With less funding, colleges have continued to lean on tuition. But over the past eight years, college enrollment nationwide has fallen about 11%. Every sector — public state schools, community colleges, for-profits and private liberal arts schools — has felt the decline. Over the years, international students, who often pay full tuition, have helped. But now with travel restrictions in play, schools are expecting very few of them this fall.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Nunes: Dems ‘weaponized’ Mueller Report, Steele Dossier to raise money in 2018

House Intelligence Ranking Member Devin Nunes , R-CA , discusses the Senate Intelligence Committee ’ s assessment reportedly backing Russian @ @ @ @ @ to help President Trump win and how Democrats weaponized the Mueller Report and Steele Dossier @ @ @ @ @ # FoxBusiness # Dobbs

House Intelligence Ranking Member Devin Nunes, R-CA, discusses the Senate Intelligence Committee’s assessment reportedly backing Russian interference in the 2016 election to help President Trump win and how Democrats weaponized the Mueller Report and Steele Dossier to win in 2018. #FoxBusiness #Dobbs
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Sweden has shut down the last of its Chinese state-sponsored teaching programmes as relations betwee

Sweden has shut down the last of its Chinese state-sponsored teaching programmes as relations between the two countries deteriorate into @ @ @ @ @ It is believed to be the first European state to close all its Confucius institutes @ @ @ @ @ Chinese language and culture with textbooks and funding from Beijing .
Analysts regard the closure @ @ @ @ @ once-cordial ties between Sweden and China are unravelling at speed amid accusations of bullying , @ @ @ @ @ 2015 their partnership had been close , with China founding its first European Confucius institute @ @ @ @ @ and Volvo , the pride of the Swedish car industry , passing into Chinese hands @ @ @ @ @ governments fell out over the arrest of Gui Minhai ,

via thetimes.co.uk
Sweden has shut down the last of its Chinese state-sponsored teaching programmes as relations between the two countries deteriorate into hostility and mutual suspicion.
It is believed to be the first European state to close all its Confucius institutes and classrooms, which teach Chinese language and culture with textbooks and funding from Beijing.
Analysts regard the closure as a sign that the once-cordial ties between Sweden and China are unravelling at speed amid accusations of bullying, meddling and incompetence.
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Until 2015 their partnership had been close, with China founding its first European Confucius institute at Stockholm University in 2005 and Volvo, the pride of the Swedish car industry, passing into Chinese hands in 2010.
Yet the governments fell out over the arrest of Gui Minhai,
…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--The Next Generation: Giant Locust Armies Of “Biblical Proportions” Threaten To Cause Mass Starvation

The Next Generation: Giant Locust Armies Of “Biblical Proportions” Threaten To Cause Mass Starvation In Africa

Even before COVID-19 became the biggest public health crisis to hit the globe in decades , enormous swarms of locusts the size of major cities were devouring crops throughout eastern Africa , across the Middle East and even in some parts of Asia .
Now a new generation that officials are describing as “ 20 times bigger ” has emerged , and the devastation that this new generation of locusts is causing is extremely alarming .
These colossal locust swarms can travel up to 90 miles a day , and as you will see below , when they descend upon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there in as little as 30 seconds .
This new generation of locusts has been spotted as far south as Congo , as far north as Iran and as far east as India .
In other words , the food supplies of billions of people are at risk .
Yesterday , I reported that the UN had used the phrase “ biblical proportions ” to describe the famines that are starting to happen around the globe as a result of the coronavirus pandemic .
Well , the phrase “ biblical proportions ” is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ armies of locusts… Heavy rains last month created ideal conditions for this next generation of locusts , and we are being told that the new swarms are “ particularly severe in Kenya , Ethiopia , and Somalia ” … Unfortunately , this is a really , really bad time for a new generation of locusts to show up , because this is the time of the year when farmers are planting their fields .
When the locusts invade a new area , all the farmers can do is watch as all their hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how one FAO official is describing the current state of affairs… “ The timing is really horrendous , because the farmers are just planting , and the seedlings are just coming up now since it ’ s the beginning of the rainy season , ” says Keith Cressman , senior locust forecasting officer with the FAO .
“ And it ’ s right at the same time when you have an increasing number of swarms in Kenya and in Ethiopia .
There ’ s already pictures and reports of the seedlings getting hammered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s it for the farmers ’ crops.
“ Here in the United States we have never experienced anything like this , and so most Americans don ’ t really understand how destructive these locusts can be .
As I noted above , when they come storming into a field they can literally eat all the crops there “ in as little as 30 seconds ” … The United Nations is calling these locust armies “ an unprecedented threat ” to global food security .
Of course the exact same thing could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us not forget that African Swine Fever has already wiped out approximately one-fourth of all the pigs in the world .
This truly has become a “ perfect storm ” for global food production , and many believe that what we have seen so far is just the beginning .
And please don ’ t be tempted to think that this is just a problem that Africa is dealing with .
All the way over in Pakistan , officials are using the word “ disaster ” to describe the threat posed by these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pakistani news source… And after everything that they have already been through , farmers in Australia are facing an enormous invasion of locusts as well , although it is a different species that they are dealing with… In the post-World War II era , can you point to another time when the world was facing so many major problems all at once ?
As I write this article , I can ’ t seem to think of one .
In the days ahead , the coronavirus pandemic will continue to dominate the headlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon cross the 200,000 mark .
But this plague of locusts should also be receiving a tremendous amount of attention , because it is wiping out farms at a blinding pace and countless numbers of people could face severe food shortages as a result .
Efforts will continue to be made to spray these locust swarms with pesticides , but when you are talking about swarms that are the size of major cities , the truth is that spraying really doesn ’ t make that much of a dent .
It truly is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and despite all of our advanced technology we are powerless to stop it .

by Michael Snyder
Even before COVID-19 became the biggest public health crisis to hit the globe in decades, enormous swarms of locusts the size of major cities were devouring crops throughout eastern Africa, across the Middle East and even in some parts of Asia. Now a new generation that officials are describing as “20 times bigger” has emerged, and the devastation that this new generation of locusts is causing is extremely alarming. These colossal locust swarms can travel up to 90 miles a day, and as you will see below, when they descend upon a field they can literally eat everything there in as little as 30 seconds. This new generation of locusts has been spotted as far south as Congo, as far north as Iran and as far east as India. In other words, the food supplies of billions of people are at risk.
Yesterday, I reported that the UN had used the phrase “biblical proportions” to describe the famines that are starting to happen around the globe as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Well, the phrase “biblical proportions” is also being used to describe these giant armies of locusts…
While much of the world focuses on the coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 1.6 million people across the globe, East Africa is battling the worst invasion of desert locusts in decades — a months-long “scourge of biblical proportions” that experts warn could get worse with a larger second wave already arriving in parts of the region.
Heavy rains last month created ideal conditions for this next generation of locusts, and we are being told that the new swarms are “particularly severe in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia”…
And now, at the worst time, a second wave of locusts 20 times bigger than the first has descended on the region, thanks to heavy rains late last month, according to the FAO. The swarms have infiltrated Yemen and firmly established themselves across the Persian Gulf, having laid eggs along 560 miles of Iran’s coastline. New swarms are particularly severe in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
Unfortunately, this is a really, really bad time for a new generation of locusts to show up, because this is the time of the year when farmers are planting their fields.
When the locusts invade a new area, all the farmers can do is watch as all their hard work is destroyed. The following is how one FAO official is describing the current state of affairs…
“The timing is really horrendous, because the farmers are just planting, and the seedlings are just coming up now since it’s the beginning of the rainy season,” says Keith Cressman, senior locust forecasting officer with the FAO. “And it’s right at the same time when you have an increasing number of swarms in Kenya and in Ethiopia. There’s already pictures and reports of the seedlings getting hammered by the swarms. So basically that’s it for the farmers’ crops.“
Here in the United States we have never experienced anything like this, and so most Americans don’t really understand how destructive these locusts can be.
As I noted above, when they come storming into a field they can literally eat all the crops there “in as little as 30 seconds”…
Massive swarms of locusts are devouring entire fields of crops in as little as 30 seconds – fuelling fears of a major food crisis in some of the world’s poorest countries, international aid organisation Concern Worldwide has warned. The charity said communities in Pakistan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are facing alarming food shortages, with the crops they grow to survive being eaten in seconds by the flying desert locusts.
The United Nations is calling these locust armies “an unprecedented threat” to global food security.
Of course the exact same thing could be said about the coronavirus.
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And let us not forget that African Swine Fever has already wiped out approximately one-fourth of all the pigs in the world.
This truly has become a “perfect storm” for global food production, and many believe that what we have seen so far is just the beginning.
And please don’t be tempted to think that this is just a problem that Africa is dealing with. All the way over in Pakistan, officials are using the word “disaster” to describe the threat posed by these locusts. The following comes from a Pakistani news source…
Parliamentary leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Balochistan Minister for Secondary Education Sardar Yar Muhammad Rind has expressed deep concern over the procreation of locusts across the province, stressing upon anti-locust spray on urgent basis. “If procreation of locusts does not stop it would badly affect crops and will also lead to nutritional disaster in Balochistan,” Rind noted, adding that due to consecutive attacks, growers and farmers are facing extreme difficulties as widespread destruction of crops is feared due to procreation of locusts.
And after everything that they have already been through, farmers in Australia are facing an enormous invasion of locusts as well, although it is a different species that they are dealing with…
After a year of battling drought, fire, dust, flood and disease, farmers in far western New South Wales are now facing a plague locust infestation. The Australian plague locust species, if not controlled, can cause significant damage to crops and pastures by consuming all in their path.
In the post-World War II era, can you point to another time when the world was facing so many major problems all at once?
As I write this article, I can’t seem to think of one.
In the days ahead, the coronavirus pandemic will continue to dominate the headlines, and the global death toll will soon cross the 200,000 mark.
But this plague of locusts should also be receiving a tremendous amount of attention, because it is wiping out farms at a blinding pace and countless numbers of people could face severe food shortages as a result.
Efforts will continue to be made to spray these locust swarms with pesticides, but when you are talking about swarms that are the size of major cities, the truth is that spraying really doesn’t make that much of a dent.
It truly is a plague of “biblical proportions”, and despite all of our advanced technology we are powerless to stop it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--The Performance Pattern Of The March Decline Is Still In Place

THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE MARCH DECLINE IS STILL IN PLACE In the 4/8/20 World Snapshot entitled , TPA said , “ … action from the 3/23 low is the result of investors just buying the most beaten down stocks , THE TRASH , versus buying companies that are poised to do well during the remainder of the crisis.
” “ …it is time for clients to focus on the winners and shun the losers…Buying stocks on the basis of a low price or selling stocks on the basis of a high price has never been a consistently successful strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the winners from the losers from 2/19 to 3/23 as prevailing for many months to come .
In the table below , we highlight stocks that are the outperformers in both the 2/19 to 3/23 period and the period that includes both the decline and the rally ( total performance from 2/19/20 to 4/8/20 ) .
These are TPA ’ s “ winners ” .
We also highlight stocks that were the losers in the initial decline period and those that have underperformed over the past 7 weeks .
( TPA ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stocks in the DJ 30 and the NDX 100 ) .
” Below is the performance , so far , for the hedged basket of buys and sells .
The P & L since 4/9 is +5.64 % .
In that same timeframe , the S & P500 is down 1.9 % .
Admittedly , TSLA should not have been included in the SELL side .
Without TSLA , the hedged basket was up 10.28 % while the S & P500 was down 1.90 % .
Clients do not have to buy and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will probably do better , buying stocks that are poised to be resilient during the Covid-19 fallout .

by Jeff Marcus
THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE MARCH DECLINE IS STILL IN PLACE
In the 4/8/20 World Snapshot entitled Picking Up The Trash
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, TPA said, “… action from the 3/23 low is the result of investors just buying the most beaten down stocks, THE TRASH, versus buying companies that are poised to do well during the remainder of the crisis.”
On 4/9/20, TPA said,
“…it is time for clients to focus on the winners and shun the losers…Buying stocks on the basis of a low price or selling stocks on the basis of a high price has never been a consistently successful strategy. TPA sees the reasoning that divided the winners from the losers from 2/19 to 3/23 as prevailing for many months to come. In the table below, we highlight stocks that are the outperformers in both the 2/19 to 3/23 period and the period that includes both the decline and the rally (total performance from 2/19/20 to 4/8/20). These are TPA’s “winners”. We also highlight stocks that were the losers in the initial decline period and those that have underperformed over the past 7 weeks. (TPA’s universe for this analysis was the largest stocks in the DJ 30 and the NDX 100).”
Below is the performance, so far, for the hedged basket of buys and sells. The P&L since 4/9 is +5.64%. In that same timeframe, the S&P500 is down 1.9%. Admittedly, TSLA should not have been included in the SELL side. Without TSLA, the hedged basket was up 10.28% while the S&P500 was down 1.90%.
Clients do not have to buy and sell these specific stocks, but they will probably do better, buying stocks that are poised to be resilient during the Covid-19 fallout.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--US Deficit $4t & Debt $28t – Where Is The Money Coming From?

From the mid 1800s to today world population has grown from 1 billion to 7.6 billion .
If we look at the graph it is a straight spike up in the last 170 years .
From a technical perspective , spikes up are always corrected by a spike down .
We can ’ t tell when exactly that spike down will come but it is likely to be connected to the coming collapse of the financial system .
A reduction in global population of 3-4 billion in the next few decades is a real possibility .
As I have stated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the reason for the downturn in the world economy that is now starting but the catalyst .
I did not forecast that a pandemic would be the trigger .
But in retrospect , the end of the biggest economic bubble in world history really had to come with an unexpected and unconventional catalyst .
That the world economy for the last 100 years was totally dependent on credit and printed money is not a new miracle paradigm but a the sign of diseased system .
Issuing fake money at zero cost always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perverse way it is almost ironic that the trigger for ending this sick financial system would be a pandemic disease .
But this is Murphy ’ s law .
If anything can go wrong , it will go wrong in the worst possible way and at the worst time .
As I said in my article above , “ So major catastrophes are part of history and the coming one could also see a major reduction in world population be it from economic crisis , famine , disease , social unrest or war.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation when all of those factors will probably come to pass .
We already have the economic crisis and we have a disease .
There is not a major famine yet but this is likely to come .
Social unrest and war are probable consequences of these problems .
Hungry and poor people will rise against their leaders and against the elite .
The differences in income and wealth between the rich and the poor have created an untenable situation .
This is virtually without exception how every revolution starts .
WHERE IS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world are of course doing their best to stop the world from going into poverty .
They are now creating unlimited amounts of money in order to assist small and big businesses as well as individuals .
Everybody is expecting a handout whether it is a major US business or an unemployed individual .
It is of course wonderful that everyone gets help but no one asks where is the money coming from .
Nobody worries about that THERE IS NO MONEY .
The $ 100s of billions and trillions that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t exist .
They are just created out of thin air .
Since the crisis started in the early autumn of 2019 with the Repos , the Fed ’ s balance sheet has gone up by almost $ 3 trillion to $ 6.5T .
But this is just the beginning .
The forecast is that it will reach $ 9T in June and probably $ 12T a couple of months later .

From the mid 1800s to today world population has grown from 1 billion to 7.6 billion. If we look at the graph it is a straight spike up in the last 170 years. From a technical perspective, spikes up are always corrected by a spike down. We can’t tell when exactly that spike down will come but it is likely to be connected to the coming collapse of the financial system. A reduction in global population of 3-4 billion in the next few decades is a real possibility.
As I have stated in many recent articles, Coronavirus is not the reason for the downturn in the world economy that is now starting but the catalyst. I did not forecast that a pandemic would be the trigger. But in retrospect, the end of the biggest economic bubble in world history really had to come with an unexpected and unconventional catalyst.
A NEW MIRACLE PARADIGM OR A DISEASED SYSTEM?
That the world economy for the last 100 years was totally dependent on credit and printed money is not a new miracle paradigm but a the sign of diseased system. Issuing fake money at zero cost always had to end badly. In a perverse way it is almost ironic that the trigger for ending this sick financial system would be a pandemic disease. But this is Murphy’s law. If anything can go wrong, it will go wrong in the worst possible way and at the worst time.
As I said in my article above, “So major catastrophes are part of history and the coming one could also see a major reduction in world population be it from economic crisis, famine, disease, social unrest or war.”
Now the world is in a situation when all of those factors will probably come to pass. We already have the economic crisis and we have a disease. There is not a major famine yet but this is likely to come. Social unrest and war are probable consequences of these problems. Hungry and poor people will rise against their leaders and against the elite. The differences in income and wealth between the rich and the poor have created an untenable situation. This is virtually without exception how every revolution starts.
WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM
Central banks around the world are of course doing their best to stop the world from going into poverty. They are now creating unlimited amounts of money in order to assist small and big businesses as well as individuals. Everybody is expecting a handout whether it is a major US business or an unemployed individual. It is of course wonderful that everyone gets help but no one asks where is the money coming from.
Nobody worries about that THERE IS NO MONEY. The $ 100s of billions and trillions that are being given to the needy don’t exist. They are just created out of thin air. Since the crisis started in the early autumn of 2019 with the Repos, the Fed’s balance sheet has gone up by almost $3 trillion to $6.5T. But this is just the beginning. The forecast is that it will reach $9T in June and probably $12T a couple of months later.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Market Divergence Continues – The Big Get Bigger And The Small Get Tiny

DIVERGENCE CONTINUES – THE BIG GET BIGGER AND THE SMALL GET TINY Each day TPA shows clients how the largest and most popular stocks are faring in the TPA Canaries in the Coalmine .
TPA ’ S two custom indexes , BIGTECH* and FAANNGT** ( a FANG derivative ) are seen relative to the S & P500 on a 5-day , 1-month , 3-month and 6-month basis ( table below ) .
TPA has been saying for 2 months that the largest growth stocks were and will continue to outperform ( see excerpts from the 2/18 , 4/8 , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outperformance has now become gargantuan .
The second table and following 2 charts below show performance difference between BIGTECH , FAANGT , S & P1500 TECH Indexes and the benchmark S & P500 over the past year and 2020 YTD .
BIGTECH and FAANGT have outperformed the S & P500 by 22 % and 45 % , respectively , over the past year and 24 % and 44 % , respectively , so far in 2020 .
These numbers are staggering .
TPA sees 2 forces at play here .
The first is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BIGTECH and FAANNGT to wield almost monopolistic power and the second is their more recent ability to remain unaffected or even prosper from the recent pandemic .
As TPA explained in its reports on 2/18 , 4/8 , and 4/15 , this pattern should continue unabated .
The only chance for the pattern to be interrupted was anti-trust or some other regulation from government .
Given the recent state of the world , governments focus will be elsewhere for months and perhaps years to come .
“ TPA would argue that the action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of investors just buying the most beaten down stocks , THE TRASH , versus buying companies that are poised to do well during the remainder of the crisis…..TPA sees NDX continuing the longer term pattern of outperforming its older brother ; the DJIA.
” “ The stock market in 2020 is now an ongoing story of a great divergence between winners and losers .
TPA breaks this widening divide down into 4 categories : 1 .
BIGTECH versus the broader market , 2 .
Large Cap versus Small Cap , 3 .
Growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Energy-related versus everything else….
” Even before he pandemic , TPA was positive on BIGTECH , TECH and Large Cap Growth .
1 .
BIGTECH has recovered and is very strong… 2 .
In line with # 1 , Large Cap growth continues to power ahead… 3 .
TECH overall is consistently strong in all 3 periods .
TECH ’ s strength can also be seen in the subsector analysis… .
”

by Jeff Marcus
DIVERGENCE CONTINUES – THE BIG GET BIGGER AND THE SMALL GET TINY
Each day TPA shows clients how the largest and most popular stocks are faring in the TPA Canaries in the Coalmine. TPA’S two custom indexes, BIGTECH* and FAANNGT** (a FANG derivative) are seen relative to the S&P500 on a 5-day, 1-month, 3-month and 6-month basis (table below). TPA has been saying for 2 months that the largest growth stocks were and will continue to outperform (see excerpts from the 2/18, 4/8, and 4/15 World Snapshots below). The outperformance has now become gargantuan.
The second table and following 2 charts below show performance difference between BIGTECH, FAANGT, S&P1500 TECH Indexes and the benchmark S&P500 over the past year and 2020 YTD. BIGTECH and FAANGT have outperformed the S&P500 by 22% and 45%, respectively, over the past year and 24% and 44%, respectively, so far in 2020. These numbers are staggering.
TPA sees 2 forces at play here. The first is ability and nature of the stocks in BIGTECH and FAANNGT to wield almost monopolistic power and the second is their more recent ability to remain unaffected or even prosper from the recent pandemic. As TPA explained in its reports on 2/18, 4/8, and 4/15, this pattern should continue unabated. The only chance for the pattern to be interrupted was anti-trust or some other regulation from government. Given the recent state of the world, governments focus will be elsewhere for months and perhaps years to come.
*AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, CMCSA, GOOGL, INTC, CSCO
**FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA
4/8/20 World Snapshot
“ TPA would argue that the action from the 3/23 low is the result of investors just buying the most beaten down stocks, THE TRASH, versus buying companies that are poised to do well during the remainder of the crisis…..TPA sees NDX continuing the longer term pattern of outperforming its older brother; the DJIA.”
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4/15/20 World Snapshot
“The stock market in 2020 is now an ongoing story of a great divergence between winners and losers. TPA breaks this widening divide down into 4 categories: 1. BIGTECH versus the broader market, 2. Large Cap versus Small Cap, 3. Growth versus Value, 4. Energy and Energy-related versus everything else….”
Even before he pandemic, TPA was positive on BIGTECH, TECH and Large Cap Growth.
2/18/20 World Snapshot
“What is Good:
1. BIGTECH has recovered and is very strong…
2. In line with #1, Large Cap growth continues to power ahead…
3. TECH overall is consistently strong in all 3 periods. TECH’s strength can also be seen in the subsector analysis….”


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Housing Market under COVID-19: Regular Folks Retreat, Foreign Investors Blocked, Large US Investors

Housing Market under COVID-19: Regular Folks Retreat, Foreign Investors Blocked, Large US Investors Gone, iBuyers Frozen

Demand is a lot weaker in some places than in others .
Mortgage applications to purchase a home in the US during the week ended April 17 plunged by 31 % from a year ago , and by 41 % from the peak in January , the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today .
It was the fifth week in a row of year-over-year plunges and the third week in a row in the minus 31-35 % ZIP code .
The purchase mortgage applications data – based on weekly surveys of banks , nonbanks , and thrifts that cover 75 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an early indication of demand by regular people trying to buy a home : But it ’ s worse : previously prolific buyers are gone .
Demand by nonresident foreign investors , who come in with their own cash or finance their purchase overseas , is not reflected in purchase mortgage applications , even during good times .
And now , those nonresident investors have largely been locked out due to flight bans and limits on border crossings , and demand by them has collapsed .
Demand by large US investors , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ property purchases at the institutional level , is also not reflected in purchase mortgage applications .
But these investors are now struggling with a liquidity crisis and turmoil in the mortgage-backed securities market .
Their own shares have plunged , and they have other things to worry about .
Demand by “ instant buyers ” or for short “ iBuyers ” is also not included in the mortgage applications data .
And this demand has collapsed to zero .
These “ iBuyers ” are companies that buy homes and flip them at what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These newfangled home flippers with an app include Zillow [ Z ] , Redfin [ RDFN ] , Opendoor , iBuyer , and others .
All of these companies were losing money on their home flipping even when the market was still hot and prices were rising .
Now the market has turned on them .
They have frozen all home-buying activities , and they ’ re stuck with the homes they have bought and now have a hard time selling .
Opendoor , one of SoftBank ’ s fake-valuation stars , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 35 % of their staff .
None of these three sources of demand – nonresident foreign investors , large US investors , and iBuyers – are reflected in the plunging purchase mortgage applications .
But demand from those three sources has evaporated .
So the drop in demand is likely larger than the 31 % -35 % drop depicted by mortgage applications , which reflects mostly regular folks trying to buy a home .
Demand is a lot weaker in some places than in others .
Purchase mortgage applications have plunged a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Washington than the national average .
These states have kicked off the lockdowns before others .
In addition , their largest markets are among the most expensive in the US , where even modest homes can exceed the limits for conforming mortgages that would be backed by the government .
In many of these markets , a home with a median price would have to be funded with a “ jumbo ” mortgage , which banks have to deal with on their own .
Credit standards are now tightening across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feet in the era of forbearance , and the availability of jumbo mortgages has plunged .
For the survey week ended April 17 , purchase mortgage applications in California and Washington plunged by 48 % year-over-year , and in New York by 58 % , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association .
This is the progression over the past five weeks for each of the three states : Drilling down by metro shows sharp differences .
The American Enterprise Institute ’ s AEI Flash Housing Market Indicators used purchase mortgage “ rate locks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to get an advance indicator of home sales volume .
A rate lock occurs when a lender and a borrower agree to lock in a specific interest rate for the period from the offer of the mortgage through closing .
The “ rate lock ” data differs in an important way from the “ mortgage application ” data discussed above .
Mortgage applications tracks when borrowers apply for a mortgage .
But these applications can be denied by the lender or withdrawn by the borrower .
Rate locks occur only after a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been made , and it ’ s now a question of closing the deal .
So a rate lock occurs much further into the purchase process .
• “ During the first of 2020 , rate lock volume was up robustly across all price tiers compared to 2019 .
However , volume was up the most for the medium-high ( +20 % ) and high ( +17 % ) price tiers .
• , rate locks have decreased across all price tiers compared to a year ago .
What stands out is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high tier .
• None “ Given the bumper start to the year and subsequent decline , taken together , purchase rate lock volume has collapsed across all price tiers with the largest declines coming in the medium-high and high tiers – the tiers for higher credit quality move-up buyers.
” The table below shows the 20 metros where year-over-year volume of rate locks for weeks 15-16 ( lumped together to keep Easter in both data sets ) has dropped the most compared to the same weeks last year : Homeowners with existing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and are scrambling to refinance their mortgages .
Refi applications in the week ended April 17 nearly tripled from a year ago , and now account for :

Demand is a lot weaker in some places than in others.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home in the US during the week ended April 17 plunged by 31% from a year ago, and by 41% from the peak in January, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today. It was the fifth week in a row of year-over-year plunges and the third week in a row in the minus 31-35% ZIP code. The purchase mortgage applications data – based on weekly surveys of banks, nonbanks, and thrifts that cover 75% of all residential mortgage applications – is an early indication of demand by regular people trying to buy a home:
But it’s worse: previously prolific buyers are gone.
Demand by nonresident foreign investors, who come in with their own cash or finance their purchase overseas, is not reflected in purchase mortgage applications, even during good times. And now, those nonresident investors have largely been locked out due to flight bans and limits on border crossings, and demand by them has collapsed.
Demand by large US investors, such as REITs, that fund their residential property purchases at the institutional level, is also not reflected in purchase mortgage applications. But these investors are now struggling with a liquidity crisis and turmoil in the mortgage-backed securities market. Their own shares have plunged, and they have other things to worry about.
Demand by “instant buyers” or for short “iBuyers” is also not included in the mortgage applications data. And this demand has collapsed to zero. These “iBuyers” are companies that buy homes and flip them at what has turned out to be steep losses. These newfangled home flippers with an app include Zillow [Z], Redfin [RDFN], Opendoor, iBuyer, and others.
All of these companies were losing money on their home flipping even when the market was still hot and prices were rising. Now the market has turned on them. They have frozen all home-buying activities, and they’re stuck with the homes they have bought and now have a hard time selling. Opendoor, one of SoftBank’s fake-valuation stars, and iBuyer have already announced laying off about 35% of their staff.
None of these three sources of demand – nonresident foreign investors, large US investors, and iBuyers – are reflected in the plunging purchase mortgage applications. But demand from those three sources has evaporated. So the drop in demand is likely larger than the 31%-35% drop depicted by mortgage applications, which reflects mostly regular folks trying to buy a home.
Demand is a lot weaker in some places than in others.
Purchase mortgage applications have plunged a lot more in California, New York, and Washington than the national average. These states have kicked off the lockdowns before others.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In addition, their largest markets are among the most expensive in the US, where even modest homes can exceed the limits for conforming mortgages that would be backed by the government. In many of these markets, a home with a median price would have to be funded with a “jumbo” mortgage, which banks have to deal with on their own. Credit standards are now tightening across the board, as lenders are getting cold feet in the era of forbearance, and the availability of jumbo mortgages has plunged.
For the survey week ended April 17, purchase mortgage applications in California and Washington plunged by 48% year-over-year, and in New York by 58%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This is the progression over the past five weeks for each of the three states:
Drilling down by metro shows sharp differences. The American Enterprise Institute’s AEI Flash Housing Market Indicators used purchase mortgage “rate locks,” based on Optimal Blue data, to get an advance indicator of home sales volume. A rate lock occurs when a lender and a borrower agree to lock in a specific interest rate for the period from the offer of the mortgage through closing.
The “rate lock” data differs in an important way from the “mortgage application” data discussed above. Mortgage applications tracks when borrowers apply for a mortgage. But these applications can be denied by the lender or withdrawn by the borrower. Rate locks occur only after a mortgage has been approved and a deal has been made, and it’s now a question of closing the deal. So a rate lock occurs much further into the purchase process.
The AEI report found:
“During the first eight pre-COVID-19 weeks of 2020, rate lock volume was up robustly across all price tiers compared to 2019. However, volume was up the most for the medium-high (+20%) and high (+17%) price tiers.
“Post COVID-19 , rate locks have decreased across all price tiers compared to a year ago. What stands out is the decline of 35% in the high tier.
“Given the bumper start to the year and subsequent decline, taken together, purchase rate lock volume has collapsed across all price tiers with the largest declines coming in the medium-high and high tiers – the tiers for higher credit quality move-up buyers.”
The table below shows the 20 metros where year-over-year volume of rate locks for weeks 15-16 (lumped together to keep Easter in both data sets) has dropped the most compared to the same weeks last year:
“Rate Locks” volume, % change, weeks 15 and 16 YoY 1 Detroit MI -64% 2 Pittsburgh PA -58% 3 San Francisco CA -38% 4 Chicago IL -32% 5 Philadelphia PA -32% 6 Boston MA -31% 7 Denver CO -29% 8 Seattle WA -29% 9 Miami FL -28% 10 Las Vegas NV -24% 11 New York NY -23% 12 St. Louis MO -22% 13 North Point FL -22% 14 Sacramento CA -22% 15 Indianapolis IN -21% 16 San Diego CA -21% 17 Los Angeles CA -20% 18 Washington DC -20% 19 Portland OR -18% 20 Baltimore MD -18%
But refi applications are red-hot.
Homeowners with existing mortgages are salivating over record-low mortgage rates and are scrambling to refinance their mortgages. Refi applications in the week ended April 17 nearly tripled from a year ago, and now account for 75% of all mortgage applications :


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Stocks will finish the month of April exactly where they started and all the money that was printed

Stocks will finish the month of April exactly where they started and all the money that was printed to accomplish nothing will do wonders for the Fed can save anything narrative

stocks will finish the month of april exactly where they started and all the money that was printed to accomplish nothing will do wonders for the fed can save anything narrative $ES $SPX pic.twitter.com/m1w4rEIg8P — hks55 (@hks55) April 23, 2020
Most important news this week by far was this. Only the tip of the iceberg. United Airlines sells $1 billion of stock in fresh move to weather pandemic | Article [AMP] | Reuters
t.co/fXVLqwSZ1A — hks55 (@hks55) April 23, 2020
Good that the common man has now bought into this. Essential for what comes next. t.co/d3Plo07TYz — hks55 (@hks55) April 23, 2020
Nothing wrong with Congress helping out small business in the pandemic. Still, evidence shows that the impact of new spending is temporary and far from a solution. This will be a long, slow, painful recovery. Forget about "pent-up demand" and happy talk.t.co/85dKhvcfN6 — Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) April 23, 2020
This one is for all those reassured by rising spring temperatures in the US South where testing remains conspicuous in its absence. Temperature in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia today is 90 degrees. By Saturday, 101 degrees. t.co/NQpq0933P9 — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 22, 2020
ARE OUR OPENING STATES READY TO OPEN? pic.twitter.com/S592JnrAkS — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 22, 2020
As #coronavirus crisis continues to push states’ limits, many barely have capacity (if any at all) to operate on reserve funds if needed @SoberLook @FT @pewtrusts pic.twitter.com/e8E4NmMSOE — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-23--Bank of America says the recent stock bounce is a bear-market rally similar to 2008. Here’s why it s

Bank of America says the recent stock bounce is a bear-market rally similar to 2008. Here’s why it sees further downside ahead.

• Analysts at Bank of America listed a number of reasons why the recent gain in stocks is actually a bear-market rally that is about to end , and said stocks are going to re-test their March 23 lows .
• Negative oil prices and a flood of poor earnings reports from S & P 500 companies are just a couple reasons this bear-market rally has similarities to the run-ups to previous market crashes and is about to end .
• The swift drop in market volatility , as measured by the VIX , is indicative of the market “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to what economic reality holds in store , ” Bank of America said .
Analysts at Bank of America are cautioning investors that the recent 30 % rally in stocks is actually just a bear-market rally in disguise .
The bank expects that the surge is currently running into resistance and will roll over before retesting the March 23 lows , if not making new ones , it said in a note Tuesday .
A return to the market lows would represent a decline of 18 % from yesterday ’ s closing price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The bank said that the market will have a difficult time sustaining valuations near their pre-coronavirus peaks given that in only the second week of US earnings season , 80 companies have withdrawn their guidance , 20 companies have cut their dividends , and 60 companies have suspended their buybacks .
Other factors contributing to the market call include oil prices turning negative for the first time in history .
The bank also cited “ the potential outflows in equities from Pension or other balanced fund rebalancing due to near record outperformance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposite of what happened last month ) .
”

Analysts at Bank of America listed a number of reasons why the recent gain in stocks is actually a bear-market rally that is about to end, and said stocks are going to re-test their March 23 lows.
Negative oil prices and a flood of poor earnings reports from S&P 500 companies are just a couple reasons this bear-market rally has similarities to the run-ups to previous market crashes and is about to end.
The swift drop in market volatility, as measured by the VIX, is indicative of the market “pricing in an optimistic recovery path compared to what economic reality holds in store,” Bank of America said.
Analysts at Bank of America are cautioning investors that the recent 30% rally in stocks is actually just a bear-market rally in disguise.
The bank expects that the surge is currently running into resistance and will roll over before retesting the March 23 lows, if not making new ones, it said in a note Tuesday. A return to the market lows would represent a decline of 18% from yesterday’s closing price in the S&P 500.
The bank said that the market will have a difficult time sustaining valuations near their pre-coronavirus peaks given that in only the second week of US earnings season, 80 companies have withdrawn their guidance, 20 companies have cut their dividends, and 60 companies have suspended their buybacks.
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Other factors contributing to the market call include oil prices turning negative for the first time in history. The bank also cited “the potential outflows in equities from Pension or other balanced fund rebalancing due to near record outperformance of stocks over bonds this month (the opposite of what happened last month).”
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bounce-bear-2008-comparison-downside-ahead-bank-america-2020-4-1029119356


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-22--Barstool founder accidentally buys 580 shares of Amazon instead of selling

Tried to sell and I bought .
Looks like I 'm riding Bezos into the night .
# ddtg # @ @

Tried to sell and I bought. Looks like I'm riding Bezos into the night. #ddtg #fintwit pic.twitter.com/Hlraqlx09E
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) April 22, 2020