investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--Escape From New York (And Chicago)! Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise 5.7% YoY As Phoenix AZ Leads In Yo

Escape From New York (And Chicago)! Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise 5.7% YoY As Phoenix AZ Leads In YoY Price Growth (Chicago And New York In Last Place)

The S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index , covering all nine U.S. census divisions , reported a 5.7 % annual gain in August , up from 4.8 % in the previous month .
The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7 % , up from 3.5 % in the previous month .
The 20-City Composite posted a 5.2 % year-over-year gain , up from 4.1 % in the previous month .
Phoenix , Seattle and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities ( excluding Detroit ) in August .
Phoenix @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year-over-year price increase , followed by Seattle with an 8.5 % increase and San Diego with a 7.6 % increase .
All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2020 versus the year ending July 2020 .
The National Index posted a 1.1 % month-over-month increase , while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1 % before seasonal adjustment in August .
After seasonal adjustment , the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0 % , while the 10-City and 20- City Composites both posted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , all 19 cities ( excluding Detroit ) reported increases before seasonal adjustment , while 17 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment .
Once again , home price growth is exceeding average hourly earnings ( 5.71 % versus 4.60 % ) .
Phoenix AZ leads the Case-Shiller 20 in year-over-year home price growth at 9.85 % followed by Antifaville ( Seattle ) at 8.49 % YoY .
On a 3-month basis ( annualized ) , San Diego leads at 15.30 % with Antifaville South ( Portland ) at 14.52 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basis is , no surprise , Chicago at 1.22 % followed by ( no surprise ) New York City at 2.82 % .
“ Please stay in Chicago and pay outrageous taxes to bail out our overly generous government pensions !
” – Lori Lightfoot , Mayor

by confoundedinterest17
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.7% annual gain in August, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.2% year-over-year gain, up from 4.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in August. Phoenix led the way with a 9.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with an 8.5% increase and San Diego with a 7.6% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2020 versus the year ending July 2020.
The National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1% before seasonal adjustment in August. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, while the 10-City and 20- City Composites both posted increases of 0.5%. In August, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
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Once again, home price growth is exceeding average hourly earnings (5.71% versus 4.60%).
Phoenix AZ leads the Case-Shiller 20 in year-over-year home price growth at 9.85% followed by Antifaville (Seattle) at 8.49% YoY. On a 3-month basis (annualized), San Diego leads at 15.30% with Antifaville South (Portland) at 14.52%. In last place on a YoY basis is, no surprise, Chicago at 1.22% followed by (no surprise) New York City at 2.82%.
“Please stay in Chicago and pay outrageous taxes to bail out our overly generous government pensions!” – Lori Lightfoot, Mayor


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--BERNARD GOLDBERG: American Journalism 2020: R.I.P.

As a personal favor , I ask you to please not laugh out loud when I say : Let ’ s take journalists at their word when they tell us the only reason they ’ re not running the Hunter Biden story is that , because they ’ re unbiased , honest , trustworthy professionals , they don ’ t want to traffic in an unsubstantiated smear campaigns.
” Okay , you can laugh your heads off now .
Let ’ s be generous and say that at the outset they had reasonable concerns .
How could they know if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might be Russian disinformation .
Rudy Giuliani , the president ’ s lawyer and pal , is involved — that ’ s a reason to be skeptical .
The story broke in the New York Post , a tabloid owned by the conservative tycoon Rupert Murdoch .
Fox News , another Murdoch property , ran with the story .
How could they even know the computer in question belonged to Hunter Biden ?
Isn ’ t the computer repairman almost blind ?
And what a coincidence , they say , that all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential election !
It ’ s not their reasoning , dishonest as it is , that ’ s so annoying .
It ’ s the sanctimony of these journalists that ’ s galling .
They ’ re not running the story because they don ’ t want to be participants in a smear campaign that might affect a presidential election – and they want us to really believe that ?
Let ’ s make sure we understand that these are the same people who ran story after story about a fake dossier that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They ’ re the same people who ran countless stories informing us that Donald Trump was a Russian asset .
These are the same noble journalists who gave Adam Schiff more airtime than their own anchors get – all because he said he had solid proof that Donald Trump colluded with the Russians .
Where was their concern for authenticity and their aversion to smear campaigns back then ?
Do they think reasonable people don ’ t notice how hypocritical – and corrupt – they are ?
So if the story about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about Donald Trump and his son or daughter , are we supposed to think that these journalists would show the same restraint they ’ re now showing ?
Do they think anyone who ’ s been paying attention would actually believe that ?

As a personal favor, I ask you to please not laugh out loud when I say: Let’s take journalists at their word when they tell us the only reason they’re not running the Hunter Biden story is that, because they’re unbiased, honest, trustworthy professionals, they don’t want to traffic in an unsubstantiated smear campaigns.”
Okay, you can laugh your heads off now.
Let’s be generous and say that at the outset they had reasonable concerns. How could they know if the emails were real? The story might be Russian disinformation. Rudy Giuliani, the president’s lawyer and pal, is involved — that’s a reason to be skeptical. The story broke in the New York Post, a tabloid owned by the conservative tycoon Rupert Murdoch. Fox News, another Murdoch property, ran with the story. How could they even know the computer in question belonged to Hunter Biden? Isn’t the computer repairman almost blind? And what a coincidence, they say, that all of this comes out just days before the presidential election!
It’s not their reasoning, dishonest as it is, that’s so annoying. It’s the sanctimony of these journalists that’s galling. They’re not running the story because they don’t want to be participants in a smear campaign that might affect a presidential election – and they want us to really believe that?
Let’s make sure we understand that these are the same people who ran story after story about a fake dossier that was packed with lies about Donald Trump.
They’re the same people who ran countless stories informing us that Donald Trump was a Russian asset.
These are the same noble journalists who gave Adam Schiff more airtime than their own anchors get – all because he said he had solid proof that Donald Trump colluded with the Russians.
Where was their concern for authenticity and their aversion to smear campaigns back then? Do they think reasonable people don’t notice how hypocritical – and corrupt – they are?
So if the story about Hunter Biden and his father Joe were about Donald Trump and his son or daughter, are we supposed to think that these journalists would show the same restraint they’re now showing?
Do they think anyone who’s been paying attention would actually believe that?


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--JP MORGAN GOES FULL TRUMPTARD: Trump is the best scenario for MARKETS. S&P500 COULD jump 14% if TRUM

JP MORGAN GOES FULL TRUMPTARD: Trump is the best scenario for MARKETS. S&P500 COULD jump 14% if TRUMP WINS

The S & P 500 could jump 14 % to 3,900 if Trump wins the election , JPMorgan says The @ @ @ @ @ rally around 14 % to hit 3,900 if President Donald Trump wins the November election @ @ @ @ @ A Trump victory is the “ most favorable outcome for equities , ” a team @ @ @ @ @ US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in a note on Friday .
A ‘ Blue @ @ @ @ @ mostly neutral for equities in the short-term , they said , because although the economy @ @ @ @ @ , that could be offset by rising corporate taxes .
JPMorgan expects energy , financials @ @ @ @ @ the biggest moves as they were the explicitly referenced sectors by both Biden and Trump @ @ @ @ @ “ YO VOY A VOTAR , POR DONALD TRUMP !
” ( i AM GOING @ @ @ @ @ in Spanish salsa song !
lol )

The S&P 500 could jump 14% to 3,900 if Trump wins the election, JPMorgan says
The S&P 500 could rally around 14% to hit 3,900 if President Donald Trump wins the November election, according to JPMorgan.
A Trump victory is the “most favorable outcome for equities,” a team of analysts led by chief US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in a note on Friday.
A ‘Blue Sweep’ scenario would be mostly neutral for equities in the short-term, they said, because although the economy would see more federal stimulus, that could be offset by rising corporate taxes.
JPMorgan expects energy, financials, and healthcare to see the biggest moves as they were the explicitly referenced sectors by both Biden and Trump on their campaign trails.
more:
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp-500-rise-trump-wins-election-jpmorgan-2020-10-1029726258#
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latinos singing it:
“YO VOY A VOTAR, POR DONALD TRUMP!” ( i AM GOING TO VOte for Donald Trump in Spanish salsa song ! lol )
SS


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--It’s gonna turn out that Trump was the only one in Washington who wasn’t colluding with foreigners,

It’s gonna turn out that Trump was the only one in Washington who wasn’t colluding with foreigners, isn’t it?

Second least shocking headline of today… t.co/Wj9DWNkMcS
— Sen. Frank Niceley (@SenFrankNiceley) October 26, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Press of Conformity: A case study in how the media stigmatize opposing view

WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Press of Conformity: A case study in how the media stigmatize opposing views.

This is laughable coming from the crowd that spent four years pushing the Russia-Trump collusion narrative from 2016 that was ginned up and promoted by the Hillary Clinton campaign .
They spun the claims of the Steele dossier , despite no supporting evidence and no on-the-record witnesses .
Yet now they claim that on-the-record statements from a former Hunter Biden associate , along with emails and texts that the Biden campaign hasn ’ t disputed , should be kept from the public .
All of this is relevant beyond next week ’ s election .
If Democrats win up and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the commanding heights of nearly every American elite institution : Congress , the administrative state , Hollywood and the arts , the universities , nonprofits , Silicon Valley and nearly all of the media .
Yet instead of playing watchdog for the public , today ’ s progressive press partisans devote themselves to attacking anyone who breaks from their orthodoxy .
They denounce independent voices like Ms. Strassel with their Twitter brigades , then they unleash reporters who are ideological enforcers masquerading as media critics .
They can ’ t tolerate any opposing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in record numbers don ’ t trust the media , and it ’ s why we will keep reporting the news others won ’ t .

This is laughable coming from the crowd that spent four years pushing the Russia-Trump collusion narrative from 2016 that was ginned up and promoted by the Hillary Clinton campaign. They spun the claims of the Steele dossier, despite no supporting evidence and no on-the-record witnesses. Yet now they claim that on-the-record statements from a former Hunter Biden associate, along with emails and texts that the Biden campaign hasn’t disputed, should be kept from the public.
All of this is relevant beyond next week’s election. If Democrats win up and down the ballot, progressives will control the commanding heights of nearly every American elite institution: Congress, the administrative state, Hollywood and the arts, the universities, nonprofits, Silicon Valley and nearly all of the media.
Yet instead of playing watchdog for the public, today’s progressive press partisans devote themselves to attacking anyone who breaks from their orthodoxy. They denounce independent voices like Ms. Strassel with their Twitter brigades, then they unleash reporters who are ideological enforcers masquerading as media critics. They can’t tolerate any opposing political view. This is why Americans in record numbers don’t trust the media, and it’s why we will keep reporting the news others won’t.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--THEY NEED TO LOSE, AND KEEP LOSING UNTIL THEY UNLEARN THIS CRAP:

Left ’ s Post-Election Agenda : More Riots , ‘ Truth Commissions , ’ Other Punishment For Their Foes — That Means You .
You hear it every day .
Someone says , “ I just want the election to be over , ” hoping out loud that things will somehow “ return to normal ” once the 2020 vote ends .
But it won ’ t .
The left already has plans to ensure that .
By “ return to normal , ” of course , we refer to an America not so riven by politics that families and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of the deep political divide .
An America where people again become friendly and human , politics recede in importance , the economy and schools reopen , and suspicion of others ’ political motives fade into the deep background .
Sounds great , the fabled tolerant America of yore .
But , sorry , whether Donald Trump wins or loses , the left has other plans .
And “ normal ” isn ’ t part of them .
In fact , even if Trump wins in a landslide and Republicans win both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the left already has plans for “ Trump II : The Disruption.
” No , this isn ’ t some dystopic fantasy .
After four years of non-stop interference with Trump ’ s presidency by the Democrats , we know it ’ s a hard reality .

Left’s Post-Election Agenda: More Riots, ‘Truth Commissions,’ Other Punishment For Their Foes — That Means You.
You hear it every day. Someone says, “I just want the election to be over,” hoping out loud that things will somehow “return to normal” once the 2020 vote ends. But it won’t. The left already has plans to ensure that.
By “return to normal,” of course, we refer to an America not so riven by politics that families and neighbors no longer talk to each other because of the deep political divide. An America where people again become friendly and human, politics recede in importance, the economy and schools reopen, and suspicion of others’ political motives fade into the deep background.
Sounds great, the fabled tolerant America of yore. But, sorry, whether Donald Trump wins or loses, the left has other plans.
And “normal” isn’t part of them. In fact, even if Trump wins in a landslide and Republicans win both chambers of Congress on his coattails, the left already has plans for “Trump II: The Disruption.”
No, this isn’t some dystopic fantasy. After four years of non-stop interference with Trump’s presidency by the Democrats, we know it’s a hard reality.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-27--At the Philadelphia BLM riot, a cop got hit or run over by a speeding vehicle.

At the Philadelphia BLM riot , a cop got hit or run over by a speeding vehicle .
pic.twitter.com/S12XuEoNAi Police @ @ @ @ @ 52nd Street area of Philadelphia .
Looting is occurring and at least one patrol vehicle @ @ @ @ @ like Philly might be in for a long night .

At the Philadelphia BLM riot, a cop got hit or run over by a speeding vehicle. pic.twitter.com/S12XuEoNAi
Police have lost control over the 52nd Street area of Philadelphia. Looting is occurring and at least one patrol vehicle has been ignited. Looks like Philly might be in for a long night.
— RiotWatchUSA (@RiotWatchUSA) October 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Flying Blind: Clueless about Risk, We’re Speeding Toward Systemic Failure

For all these reasons , the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated .
There ’ s an irony in discussing risk : since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk , we think we understand it .
But alas , we don ’ t , especially when the risk is invisible and systemic .
We even misjudge extremely visible risk .
People routinely die rushing to save someone who foolishly waded into fast-moving water a few yards above a waterfall .
The rescue is clearly suicidal and doomed but they try anyway , doubling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We ’ re prone to ignore risks that we ’ ve taken and gotten away with before : boat ’ s overloaded and seas are rising ?
Hey , we ’ ve done this a hundred times and nothing bad ever happened .
We overestimate our level of control .
Don ’ t worry , I got this… crash .
And we overestimate our risk management skills , confident that the situation won ’ t get away from us .
Systemic risk is difficult to isolate and analyze , so we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not that we ’ re blithely ignoring risk–we simply do not see it .
We ’ re flying blind through jagged mountain tops we can ’ t see through the thick fog of false confidence .
There are several reasons for our innate difficulty in discerning risk .
One I covered last year in Crunchtime : When Events Outrun Plan B ( December 4 , 2019 ) is recency bias : the natural assumption that the recent past is a reliable guide to the future .
This leads us to underestimate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Linear means increasing or decreasing inputs to the system generate equivalent outputs : doubling the input doubles the output , and so on .
Non-linear means modest changes in inputs generate outsized changes in outputs .
It ’ s not easy to discern the potential for non-linear dynamics until they emerge , typically with surprising speed .
This is why stock market crashes catch the vast majority of punters off-guard .
Central banks and governments have gone to extreme lengths to maintain the illusion of linearity , but these extreme measures have generated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illusion of linearity implies a control of dynamics so perfect that no linear situation can ever become non-linear .
This is the illusion of godlike control .
In other words , we assume the authorities ( The Federal Reserve , etc . )
have godlike control which limits the risk of things spiraling out of control ( i.e .
non-linearity ) Another reason we ’ re blind to risk is we naively assume risks add up like a grocery bill .
Take a 5 % of something bad happening , add another 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk , and the total risk we face is only 15 % –hey , that ’ s not much .
The problem is independent-variable risks don ’ t add up , they compound .
As correspondent A.P .
explained to me recently : risks are independent variables with cumulative effects that are compounded , not additive .
So the three variables , each with a 5 % risk factor , pose a compounded risk far higher than 15 % .
In other words , we may view each risk factor as low and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we failed to compound all the individually “ low-risk ” factors into a composite of risk , which could compound into a very high probability of something unexpectedly bad happening .
Then there ’ s feedback , a dynamic I ’ ve discussed many times , most recently in How Extremes Become More Extreme , Triggering Collapse ( August 28 , 2020 ) Somewhat counter-intuitively , when feedback arises to moderate the intensity of a trend , that ’ s negative feedback .
When feedback intensifies the trend , it ’ s positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If a bad trend is moderated by negative feedback , that ’ s good ( positive ) .
If a bad trend gathers momentum due to positive feedback , that ’ s bad ( negative ) .
When an insect population explodes higher due to ideal conditions , birds and other predators feast on the over-supply , reducing the infestation .
This negative feedback moderates the damage inflicted by the infestation .
If a rapidly expanding insect horde has few predators and its range and mobility increase with every generation , allowing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positive feedback enables a vast expansion in each generation–exactly what ’ s we ’ re witnessing with locusts .
Positive feedback leads to runaway systems , i.e .
run to failure where the trend accelerates until the system collapses .
If the system is isolated , then the damage might be contained .
But if the system is interconnected with others , then its failure could trigger the collapse of other systems , either as a direct ( first-order ) effect or as an indirect ( second-order ) effect .
In other words @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failure can trigger a domino effect that can become non-linear once second-order effects manifest .
All of these dynamics are in play in America ’ s healthcare system , which I discussed rcently in How Systems Collapse : Reaping What We ’ ve Sown and Everything We Assume Is Permanent Is Actually Fragile ( October 23 , 2020 ) .
Here ’ s an example : the CDC reported that 1 in 16 health care personnel ( HCP ) contract Covid and require hospitalization .
If the healthcare worker is older than 60 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risks are much higher .
At some point , these compounding risks will influence decisions .
Hospital administrators fearing wrongful-death lawsuits from over-60 staffers who contract the virus and die from complications may fire older staffers to limit their legal liability .
Individual healthcare workers who are responsible for caring for elderly parents or children at home may conclude the risk of contracting Covid at work and suffering Long Covid debilitation outweighs the income from their job , and seek alternative employment with lower exposure to Covid patients .
The greater one ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home , the more devastating the impact of Covid hospitalization or long-term debilitation , and so at some point the risks of continuous exposure to Covid-infected patients are simply not worth it .
Given the prevalence of organ damage ( heart , liver , etc . )
even in asymptomatic carriers of Covid , older healthcare workers may conclude it ’ s not worth the risks of permanent organ damage to continue exposure to Covid-infected patients , and so they may choose to retire early .
Compound these decisions , add in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a rising risk of the illusion of linearity giving way to explosive non-linear run-to-failure .
Just because it hasn ’ t happened yet doesn ’ t mean it can ’ t happen .
Lastly , the risks of drawing grandiose conclusions from limited data are largely invisible , too .
This is one of the risks in the rushed vaccine trials currently underway .
Please read Covid-19 Vaccine Protocols Reveal That Trials Are Designed To Succeed ( Forbes.com ) by William A. Haseltine before assuming the vaccine trials are accurate estimations of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediate questions a trial needs to answer is whether a vaccine prevents infection .
If someone takes this vaccine , are they far less likely to become infected with the virus ?
These trials all clearly focus on eliminating symptoms of Covid-19 , and not infections themselves .
Asymptomatic infection is listed as a secondary objective in these trials when they should be of critical importance .
It appears that all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection .
Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine group .
They do not measure the difference between infection and noninfection as a primary motivation .
A greater concern for the millions of older people and those with preexisting conditions is whether these trials test the vaccine ’ s ability to prevent severe illness and death .
Again we find that severe illness and death are only secondary objectives in these trials .
None list the prevention of death and hospitalization as a critically important barrier.
” For all the reasons listed in this post , the risks of systemic collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Recency bias , belief in the illusion of linearity and the godlike powers of authorities , failure to properly compound risk variables and feedback , uncritical acceptance of limited data–any one of these is the equivalent of flying blind , without radar , through thick fog .
Compounding all these factors is the equivalent of flying through thick fog at 5,000 feet straight toward the Rocky Mountains .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated.
There’s an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it. But alas, we don’t, especially when the risk is invisible and systemic.
We even misjudge extremely visible risk. People routinely die rushing to save someone who foolishly waded into fast-moving water a few yards above a waterfall. The rescue is clearly suicidal and doomed but they try anyway, doubling the tragedy by losing their own life.
We’re prone to ignore risks that we’ve taken and gotten away with before: boat’s overloaded and seas are rising? Hey, we’ve done this a hundred times and nothing bad ever happened.
We overestimate our level of control. Don’t worry, I got this… crash.
And we overestimate our risk management skills, confident that the situation won’t get away from us.
Systemic risk is difficult to isolate and analyze, so we’re literally blind to it. It’s not that we’re blithely ignoring risk–we simply do not see it. We’re flying blind through jagged mountain tops we can’t see through the thick fog of false confidence.
There are several reasons for our innate difficulty in discerning risk. One I covered last year in Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B (December 4, 2019) is recency bias: the natural assumption that the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. This leads us to underestimate the risk of non-linear financial-economic dynamics.
Linear means increasing or decreasing inputs to the system generate equivalent outputs: doubling the input doubles the output, and so on. Non-linear means modest changes in inputs generate outsized changes in outputs.
It’s not easy to discern the potential for non-linear dynamics until they emerge, typically with surprising speed. This is why stock market crashes catch the vast majority of punters off-guard.
Central banks and governments have gone to extreme lengths to maintain the illusion of linearity, but these extreme measures have generated emergent properties beyond their control. This illusion of linearity implies a control of dynamics so perfect that no linear situation can ever become non-linear. This is the illusion of godlike control.
In other words, we assume the authorities (The Federal Reserve, etc.) have godlike control which limits the risk of things spiraling out of control (i.e. non-linearity)
Another reason we’re blind to risk is we naively assume risks add up like a grocery bill. Take a 5% of something bad happening, add another 5% risk and a third 5% risk, and the total risk we face is only 15%–hey, that’s not much.
The problem is independent-variable risks don’t add up, they compound. As correspondent A.P. explained to me recently: risks are independent variables with cumulative effects that are compounded, not additive. So the three variables, each with a 5% risk factor, pose a compounded risk far higher than 15%.
In other words, we may view each risk factor as low and feel a false sense of safety because we failed to compound all the individually “low-risk” factors into a composite of risk, which could compound into a very high probability of something unexpectedly bad happening.
Then there’s feedback, a dynamic I’ve discussed many times, most recently in How Extremes Become More Extreme, Triggering Collapse (August 28, 2020)
Somewhat counter-intuitively, when feedback arises to moderate the intensity of a trend, that’s negative feedback. When feedback intensifies the trend, it’s positive feedback.
Why is this counter-intuitive? If a bad trend is moderated by negative feedback, that’s good (positive). If a bad trend gathers momentum due to positive feedback, that’s bad (negative).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
When an insect population explodes higher due to ideal conditions, birds and other predators feast on the over-supply, reducing the infestation. This negative feedback moderates the damage inflicted by the infestation.
If a rapidly expanding insect horde has few predators and its range and mobility increase with every generation, allowing it to find new food sources, this positive feedback enables a vast expansion in each generation–exactly what’s we’re witnessing with locusts.
Positive feedback leads to runaway systems, i.e. run to failure where the trend accelerates until the system collapses.
If the system is isolated, then the damage might be contained. But if the system is interconnected with others, then its failure could trigger the collapse of other systems, either as a direct (first-order) effect or as an indirect (second-order) effect.
In other words, in highly inter-connected systems, one failure can trigger a domino effect that can become non-linear once second-order effects manifest.
All of these dynamics are in play in America’s healthcare system, which I discussed rcently in How Systems Collapse: Reaping What We’ve Sown and Everything We Assume Is Permanent Is Actually Fragile (October 23, 2020).
Here’s an example: the CDC reported that 1 in 16 health care personnel (HCP) contract Covid and require hospitalization. If the healthcare worker is older than 60 and/or has an underlying condition, the risks are much higher. At some point, these compounding risks will influence decisions.
Hospital administrators fearing wrongful-death lawsuits from over-60 staffers who contract the virus and die from complications may fire older staffers to limit their legal liability.
Individual healthcare workers who are responsible for caring for elderly parents or children at home may conclude the risk of contracting Covid at work and suffering Long Covid debilitation outweighs the income from their job, and seek alternative employment with lower exposure to Covid patients.
The greater one’s responsibility for physical care of dependents at home, the more devastating the impact of Covid hospitalization or long-term debilitation, and so at some point the risks of continuous exposure to Covid-infected patients are simply not worth it.
Given the prevalence of organ damage (heart, liver, etc.) even in asymptomatic carriers of Covid, older healthcare workers may conclude it’s not worth the risks of permanent organ damage to continue exposure to Covid-infected patients, and so they may choose to retire early.
Compound these decisions, add in feedback of rising hospitalizations and there’s a rising risk of the illusion of linearity giving way to explosive non-linear run-to-failure. Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
Lastly, the risks of drawing grandiose conclusions from limited data are largely invisible, too. This is one of the risks in the rushed vaccine trials currently underway. Please read Covid-19 Vaccine Protocols Reveal That Trials Are Designed To Succeed (Forbes.com) by William A. Haseltine before assuming the vaccine trials are accurate estimations of risks.
“One of the more immediate questions a trial needs to answer is whether a vaccine prevents infection. If someone takes this vaccine, are they far less likely to become infected with the virus? These trials all clearly focus on eliminating symptoms of Covid-19, and not infections themselves. Asymptomatic infection is listed as a secondary objective in these trials when they should be of critical importance.
It appears that all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection. Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms between an infected control group and an infected vaccine group. They do not measure the difference between infection and noninfection as a primary motivation.
A greater concern for the millions of older people and those with preexisting conditions is whether these trials test the vaccine’s ability to prevent severe illness and death. Again we find that severe illness and death are only secondary objectives in these trials. None list the prevention of death and hospitalization as a critically important barrier.”
For all the reasons listed in this post, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. Recency bias, belief in the illusion of linearity and the godlike powers of authorities, failure to properly compound risk variables and feedback, uncritical acceptance of limited data–any one of these is the equivalent of flying blind, without radar, through thick fog.
Compounding all these factors is the equivalent of flying through thick fog at 5,000 feet straight toward the Rocky Mountains.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--How long will it take to count all the votes?

For months the American people have been told that we may not know the winner of the presidential election right away like we normally do .
So if we aren ’ t going to have a winner on November 3rd , when will we finally have a clear result ?
Well , that is going to depend on how long it takes to count the votes , and that is going to be different for each state .
I know that is a frustrating answer , but every one of our 50 states has different election laws , and things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fact that so many people will be voting by mail .
So far , more than 46 million Americans have already voted by mail , and that number just keeps growing with each passing day .
Some states allow mail-in ballots to be counted before Election Day , but a majority of states do not… So that means that there will be tens of millions of mail-in ballots that will be piled up waiting to be counted in addition to all of the ballots that come in on Election Day .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open up all of those ballots and get them counted , because that is going to be a monumental task .
As I discussed yesterday , there are six key swing states that are pretty much going to determine the outcome of this election .
In three of them , the lack of a sufficient head start in counting ballots is likely to greatly delay voting results… Whoever wins Pennsylvania is probably going to win the presidency , but it could be quite a while before we get a final result from that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that counting mail-in ballots is much more tedious that running normal ballots through a machine .
There are several steps involved , and each step takes time… And on top of everything else , sometimes unexpected problems occur .
For example , ballot counting machines in one county in Texas have been “ rejecting about one-third of mail-in ballots ” and authorities are scrambling to get this issue resolved… As I have warned before , you will want to vote in person to give yourself the best chance of having your vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that I have already discussed , it is important to remember that mail-in votes will continue to be accepted in many states long after Election Day is over .
I know that sounds really bizarre , but this is what is actually going to happen .
In fact , Washington State will count votes that are received as late as November 23rd… National polls have shown that Biden voters are much more likely to vote by mail and Trump voters are much more likely to vote in person .
The votes that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly .
Meanwhile , the votes that are sent in by mail will take weeks to fully count .
The mainstream media and the big tech companies have been working very hard to mentally prepare us for a massive “ blue shift ” after Election Day .
One of the reasons why they are so adamant that Trump should not declare victory on November 3rd is because they are confident that Joe Biden will ultimately win once all of the mail-in ballots are finally counted .
In some states we will have final @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states counting could take quite a few weeks .
But the counting can not take too long , because by law election results must be officially certified by certain deadlines… I don ’ t know how some of those states are going to possibly meet those deadlines .
In particular , I have no idea how Pennsylvania is going to be done counting by November 11th .
Hopefully they have a vast army of counters and a whole lot of coffee .
To give you an idea of how long it takes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we witnessed in California earlier this year… If it took California seven weeks to count a couple million mail-in ballots , how in the world is Pennsylvania going to count a similar number of mail-in ballots in just one week ?
Personally , I am anticipating that this election is going to be a colossal mess .
As I have been documenting on The Most Important News , voting anomalies have already been popping up all over the nation , and I think that counting all of the mail-in ballots is going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And any legal battles over the counting of the votes will just make the process even more painful .
We were once a great example for the rest of the world , but in 2020 we are going to show the rest of the planet the exact wrong way to conduct an election , and that is a real shame .

by Michael Snyder
For months the American people have been told that we may not know the winner of the presidential election right away like we normally do. So if we aren’t going to have a winner on November 3rd, when will we finally have a clear result? Well, that is going to depend on how long it takes to count the votes, and that is going to be different for each state. I know that is a frustrating answer, but every one of our 50 states has different election laws, and things have been greatly complicated in 2020 by the fact that so many people will be voting by mail. So far, more than 46 million Americans have already voted by mail, and that number just keeps growing with each passing day. Some states allow mail-in ballots to be counted before Election Day, but a majority of states do not…
A majority of states won’t start actually counting ballots until the morning of Election Day or after polls close. Most counting rules have remained unchanged this year, though some states have adjusted their timelines due to the pandemic to ease the burden of increased absentee ballots.
So that means that there will be tens of millions of mail-in ballots that will be piled up waiting to be counted in addition to all of the ballots that come in on Election Day.
I feel sorry for those that have to open up all of those ballots and get them counted, because that is going to be a monumental task.
As I discussed yesterday, there are six key swing states that are pretty much going to determine the outcome of this election. In three of them, the lack of a sufficient head start in counting ballots is likely to greatly delay voting results…
But final results in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan could be unclear on election night because these states are expected to be the three slowest to count the high volume of absentee ballots. The reason: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don’t allow the processing of mail-in ballots to begin until Election Day and Michigan only has a 10-hour start, compared to other states that start that can start the process days or weeks in advance.
Whoever wins Pennsylvania is probably going to win the presidency, but it could be quite a while before we get a final result from that state.
You see, the truth is that counting mail-in ballots is much more tedious that running normal ballots through a machine. There are several steps involved, and each step takes time…
Processing absentee ballots generally includes steps short of tabulating them — such as removing them from the envelope, confirming voter eligibility, matching signatures to what’s on record and scanning them.
And on top of everything else, sometimes unexpected problems occur.
For example, ballot counting machines in one county in Texas have been “rejecting about one-third of mail-in ballots” and authorities are scrambling to get this issue resolved…
Ballot scanning machines are rejecting about one-third of mail-in ballots returned by voters in Tarrant County. The problem has impacted more than 22,000 ballots so far. Ballot board members are now working in 12-hour shifts to accurately replicate the ballots so they can be counted.
As I have warned before, you will want to vote in person to give yourself the best chance of having your vote actually count.
In addition to everything that I have already discussed, it is important to remember that mail-in votes will continue to be accepted in many states long after Election Day is over.
I know that sounds really bizarre, but this is what is actually going to happen. In fact, Washington State will count votes that are received as late as November 23rd…
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The last day to vote in-person in the general election is Nov. 3. Absentee and mail-in ballots also typically must be received or postmarked by that date, if not earlier, depending on a state’s rules. That leaves some room for mail-in ballots to be received after Election Day. In Washington State, mail-in ballots received as late as Nov. 23 are still valid, as long as they were postmarked by Nov. 3.
National polls have shown that Biden voters are much more likely to vote by mail and Trump voters are much more likely to vote in person.
The votes that are cast in person will be counted very quickly. Meanwhile, the votes that are sent in by mail will take weeks to fully count.
The mainstream media and the big tech companies have been working very hard to mentally prepare us for a massive “blue shift” after Election Day. One of the reasons why they are so adamant that Trump should not declare victory on November 3rd is because they are confident that Joe Biden will ultimately win once all of the mail-in ballots are finally counted.
In some states we will have final results almost immediately, but in other states counting could take quite a few weeks.
But the counting cannot take too long, because by law election results must be officially certified by certain deadlines…
According to Ballotpedia, citing state laws, six states must certify election results within a week of the general election; 26 states and Washington, D.C., have a deadline between Nov. 10 and Nov. 30; 14 have a deadline in December, and four do not have deadlines in their state laws. Among key battleground states, those deadlines range from Nov. 11 (Pennsylvania) to Dec. 1 (Nevada and Wisconsin). For potential battleground Texas, it is Dec. 3.
I don’t know how some of those states are going to possibly meet those deadlines.
In particular, I have no idea how Pennsylvania is going to be done counting by November 11th. Hopefully they have a vast army of counters and a whole lot of coffee.
To give you an idea of how long it takes to count mail-in ballots, just consider what we witnessed in California earlier this year…
Consider this year’s California primary, in which 5.8 million people voted for president. Only 3 million of those ballots were counted by election night; the other 2.8 million votes took an additional seven weeks to count, said John Couvillon, a pollster and political analyst.
If it took California seven weeks to count a couple million mail-in ballots, how in the world is Pennsylvania going to count a similar number of mail-in ballots in just one week?
Personally, I am anticipating that this election is going to be a colossal mess. As I have been documenting on The Most Important News, voting anomalies have already been popping up all over the nation, and I think that counting all of the mail-in ballots is going to take much more time than anticipated.
And any legal battles over the counting of the votes will just make the process even more painful.
We were once a great example for the rest of the world, but in 2020 we are going to show the rest of the planet the exact wrong way to conduct an election, and that is a real shame.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-28--Why are the Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls so different from the polls the mainstream media puts out?

Have you noticed that poll results seem to be all over the place this election season ?
The mainstream media is constantly touting polls that show Joe Biden with a huge national lead and strong leads in most of the critical swing states .
But independent pollsters such as Trafalgar , Rasmussen and others consistently come out with polls that show President Trump doing very well in the swing states .
In fact , if the Trafalgar polls end up being as accurate as they were in 2016 , Trump will win the election .
But if you listen to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is almost impossible .
In fact , earlier today on The Most Important News I posted one mainstream forecast that is projecting that Joe Biden has a 95 percent chance of winning the election .
Someone is definitely very wrong , and soon we will find out who that is .
In this article , I am going to share with you some rather startling numbers .
Just like in 2016 , the polls that the mainstream media relies upon make it look like Trump is definitely going to lose .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that those polls are just as flawed as they were four years ago .
So why are those mainstream polls so wrong ?
Well , Cahaly insists that there is a “ hidden Trump vote ” that the mainstream polls simply are not accounting for… The mainstream media thought that the idea of a “ hidden Trump vote ” was crazy in 2016 , but then Cahaly was vindicated when Trump won .
Will we see the same thing happen again here in 2020 ?
Let ’ s dig into some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win Florida if he is going to win in November , and right now the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls has him with just a 0.4 percent lead in the state .
So that would seem to imply a very , very tight race .
But the latest Trafalgar Group survey has Trump up by 2.3 percent and the latest Rasmussen survey has Trump up by 4 points .
You could dismiss those differences as just a “ coincidence ” , but we see the same thing happening when we look at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Carolina , the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 0.7 percent , but Rasmussen has Trump in the lead by 1 percent and Trafalgar has Trump leading by 3 percent .
In Wisconsin , the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 5.5 percent , and so you would be tempted to think that Biden has a lock on that key swing state .
But the latest Trafalgar poll actually has Trump up by 1.3 percent .
In Michigan , the latest RCP average of polls has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so that makes it seem like Biden has absolutely nothing to worry about there .
But the latest Trafalgar poll has Trump up by 0.6 percent in the state .
That is an absolutely massive difference , and someone is way off .
Lastly , let ’ s talk about Pennsylvania .
Whoever wins Pennsylvania will almost certainly win the election , and so that state is of paramount importance .
The latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 3.8 percent , but the Trafalgar Group just released a poll that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time… When asked about the Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls , many in the mainstream media dismiss them as “ crazy ” , but Trafalgar and Rasmussen were right on the money in 2016 .
In fact , following the election it was reported that “ Trafalgar ’ s polls were either the most accurate ( or tied for the most accurate ) of any other poll in the 2016 election ” .
That doesn ’ t mean that the same thing will happen this time , but having a solid track @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what do they do that is different from the others ?
Well , for one thing they don ’ t ask people dozens of pointless questions .
According to Cahaly , the key is go design polls with “ Joe Sixpack ” in mind… “ Well , we ’ re kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times , modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring .
And this is a political survey .
Oh , well , we have to take some time and answer this .
I mean , this is not reality .
You know , the phone rings at 6:30 at night .
You got .
You fixing dinner , you ’ re washing dishes , putting kids to bed .
Nobody ’ s got time to stop what they ’ re doing and take a 25 , 30 , 40 question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regular people .
You ’ re getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal , way too conservative , or worse yet , people who are bored .
We ’ re about polling average people .
I grew up in politics in South Carolina .
And Lee Atwater , what he used to say to all of us is , don ’ t worry about what the political insiders say .
You want to know what ’ s in Joe Sixpack ’ s head .
And that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s an average people ’ s minds.
” Without a doubt , I believe that this election is much closer than the mainstream media is leading us to believe .
And since it is going to take such a long time to count all of the mail-in votes , we may not have a winner until long after November 3rd .
The period of uncertainty that we are potentially facing is not going to be good for our country , and when a winner is finally declared there are going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the losing side that are going to be extremely angry .
America has never been this deeply divided in my entire lifetime , and a bitterly contested presidential election could easily spark widespread civil unrest all over the nation .
So let us hope for the best , but let us also prepare for what could be a very , very difficult chapter in our history .

by Michael Snyder
Have you noticed that poll results seem to be all over the place this election season? The mainstream media is constantly touting polls that show Joe Biden with a huge national lead and strong leads in most of the critical swing states. But independent pollsters such as Trafalgar, Rasmussen and others consistently come out with polls that show President Trump doing very well in the swing states. In fact, if the Trafalgar polls end up being as accurate as they were in 2016, Trump will win the election. But if you listen to the pundits in the mainstream media, that is almost impossible. In fact, earlier today on The Most Important News I posted one mainstream forecast that is projecting that Joe Biden has a 95 percent chance of winning the election. Someone is definitely very wrong, and soon we will find out who that is.
In this article, I am going to share with you some rather startling numbers. Just like in 2016, the polls that the mainstream media relies upon make it look like Trump is definitely going to lose. But Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group says that those polls are just as flawed as they were four years ago.
So why are those mainstream polls so wrong?
Well, Cahaly insists that there is a “hidden Trump vote” that the mainstream polls simply are not accounting for…
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily,” he added. “These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
The mainstream media thought that the idea of a “hidden Trump vote” was crazy in 2016, but then Cahaly was vindicated when Trump won.
Will we see the same thing happen again here in 2020?
Let’s dig into some of the numbers.
President Trump desperately needs to win Florida if he is going to win in November, and right now the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls has him with just a 0.4 percent lead in the state.
So that would seem to imply a very, very tight race.
But the latest Trafalgar Group survey has Trump up by 2.3 percent and the latest Rasmussen survey has Trump up by 4 points.
You could dismiss those differences as just a “coincidence”, but we see the same thing happening when we look at the numbers in state after state.
In North Carolina, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 0.7 percent, but Rasmussen has Trump in the lead by 1 percent and Trafalgar has Trump leading by 3 percent.
In Wisconsin, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 5.5 percent, and so you would be tempted to think that Biden has a lock on that key swing state.
But the latest Trafalgar poll actually has Trump up by 1.3 percent.
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In Michigan, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 9.0 percent, and so that makes it seem like Biden has absolutely nothing to worry about there.
But the latest Trafalgar poll has Trump up by 0.6 percent in the state.
That is an absolutely massive difference, and someone is way off.
Lastly, let’s talk about Pennsylvania. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will almost certainly win the election, and so that state is of paramount importance.
The latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 3.8 percent, but the Trafalgar Group just released a poll that shows Trump leading in the state for the first time…
Donald Trump 48.4%
Joe Biden 47.6%
Jo Jorgensen 2.2%
Someone Else 0.7%
Undecided 1.0%
When asked about the Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls, many in the mainstream media dismiss them as “crazy”, but Trafalgar and Rasmussen were right on the money in 2016.
In fact, following the election it was reported that “Trafalgar’s polls were either the most accurate (or tied for the most accurate) of any other poll in the 2016 election”.
That doesn’t mean that the same thing will happen this time, but having a solid track record should definitely mean something.
So what do they do that is different from the others? Well, for one thing they don’t ask people dozens of pointless questions. According to Cahaly, the key is go design polls with “Joe Sixpack” in mind…
“Well, we’re kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you’re washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody’s got time to stop what they’re doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You’re not getting regular people. You’re getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We’re about polling average people. I grew up in politics in South Carolina. And Lee Atwater, what he used to say to all of us is, don’t worry about what the political insiders say. You want to know what’s in Joe Sixpack’s head. And that is my goal, is to figure out what’s an average people’s minds.”
Without a doubt, I believe that this election is much closer than the mainstream media is leading us to believe.
And since it is going to take such a long time to count all of the mail-in votes, we may not have a winner until long after November 3rd.
The period of uncertainty that we are potentially facing is not going to be good for our country, and when a winner is finally declared there are going to be tens of millions of people on the losing side that are going to be extremely angry.
America has never been this deeply divided in my entire lifetime, and a bitterly contested presidential election could easily spark widespread civil unrest all over the nation.
So let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for what could be a very, very difficult chapter in our history.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Markets Believe More Shutdowns Are Coming, No Matter Who Wins The Election

CRITICAL ALERT : Europe Is Shutting Down .
Pan-Sell Off .
MUST WATCH .

by Gregory Mannarino of Traders Choice
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CRITICAL ALERT: Europe Is Shutting Down. Pan-Sell Off. MUST WATCH.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Technically Speaking: It’s Coming. A Huge Bond Buying Opportunity.

Here we go again .
After plunging to new lows , the calls for the end of the “ bond bull ” market mount each time rates rise .
Is this time the end of the “ bond bull ?
” Or , is there another huge bond-buying opportunity to come ?
We recently reduced our exposure to bonds , the first time in years , due to the more extreme overbought condition of Treasury bonds following the pandemic ’ s onset .
The long-term chart of yields below shows this to be the case .
There are two critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ above .
• Interest rates are currently extremely oversold ( top and bottom panels ) , suggesting that rates could indeed rise over the next few months .
Such could coincide with another stimulus package or the passage of an “ infrastructure ” bill that leads to short-term inflationary concerns .
• When rates do rise from deeply oversold levels , there is a point where high rights collide with debt levels triggering either a credit-related event , a stock-market correction , or worse .
There are currently two significant risks from rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One of the primary themes used by the “ Permabulls ” is that “ valuations are cheap due to low interest rates.
” That argument has been the clarion call of a generation of investors who have ignored fundamentals and valuations to chase market returns .
Since 2019 , when earnings growth began to deteriorate in earnest , investors bid up shares .
As such , the primary driver of returns , as shown below , has come from “ multiple expansion.
” The “ hope ” remains that earnings growth will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite being 3/4ths of the way through 2020 , the outlook for earnings continues to deteriorate .
In just the last 15-days , the estimates for 2021 have declined by almost $ 7 per share despite repeated statements of a recovering economy .
There are two problems with the thesis that “ low rates justify high valuations.
” • Historically , such has not ever been the case ; and , • When rates rise , valuations quickly become an issue .
However , since stock prices reflect economic growth , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a far more significant issue .
People don ’ t buy houses or cars .
They buy payments .
Payments are a function of interest rates , and when interest rates rise sharply , mortgage activity falls as payments rise above expectations .
In an economy where roughly 70 % of Americans have little or no savings , an adjustment higher in payments significantly impacts consumption .
• As stated above , rising interest rates will immediately slow the housing market taking that small contribution to the economy .
People buy payments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean higher payments .
• An increase in interest rates means higher borrowing costs .
Such leads to lower profit margins for corporations reducing corporate earnings and financial markets .
• The negative impact on the massive derivatives and credit markets is the Fed ’ s worst fear .
• As rates increase , so does the variable rate interest payments on credit cards .
With the consumer struggling with stagnant wages and increased living costs , higher credit payments lead to a contraction in spending and rising defaults .
• Rising defaults @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which are still not adequately capitalized and still burdened by massive levels of bad debts .
• Many corporate share buyback plans and dividend issuances are accomplished through cheap debt , leading to increased corporate balance sheet leverage .
That will end .
• Corporate capital expenditures are dependent on borrowing costs .
Higher borrowing costs lead to lower CapEx .
• The deficit/GDP ratio will begin to soar as borrowing costs rise .
The many forecasts for lower future deficits will crumble as new forecasts begin to propel higher .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea as we discussed concerning debt-to-income ratios : Am I saying rates can ’ t rise at all ?
Absolutely not .
However , there is a limit before it negatively impacts the economy , and ultimately the stock market .
In June of 2013 , when the cries of the “ death of the bond bull market ” were rampant , I made repeated calls that then was an ideal time to be a “ buyer ” of bonds .
As shown in the chart below , that was the correct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the mainstream analysts , bonds remained in an ongoing bullish trend .
Since interest rates are the inverse of bond prices , we can look at a long-term chart of rates to determine when bonds are overbought or oversold .
In 2019 , rates began to slide slower as the realization that economic growth was weakening weighed on outlooks .
As the yield curve began to invert , the Federal Reserve stepped in with expanded “ repo ” operations to shore up financial institutions .
In March of 2020 , the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing rates to plunge to record lows .
The plunge in rates and massive Fed liquidity caused stocks to surge to new highs despite an underlying recessionary economy .
Currently , the plunge in interest rates pushed bonds to an extreme “ overbought ” condition .
Such suggests the most likely target for rates in the near term could be as high as 2.0 % .
While an increase of 1.2 % from current levels doesn ’ t sound like much , that increase would push bonds back to “ oversold.
” That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase bond exposure in portfolios .
We can confirm the same using a very long-term chart ( 50-years ) of 10-year interest rates overlaid with a 10-year moving average .
As you can see , that moving average has provided formidable resistance and denoted every peak in rates going back to 1988 .
Currently , with interest rates at the bottom of their long-term trend , the risk is that rates could indeed rise in the months ahead .
What could cause such an increase in rates ?
• A massive debt-funded stimulus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ directly to households .
• If the government further increases deficit spending programs that fail to produce economic benefits such as universal basic incomes .
• An increase of economic activity as the economy reopens , and a post-recessionary recovery occurs .
• If there is a point where the Federal Reserve is unable or unwilling to monetize the entirety of the debt issuance • A lack of demand by foreign buyers of U.S. debt over concerns on economic strength and financial stability due to debt-to-GDP ratios .
These lead to concerns over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest rates back to the top of the long-term downtrend .
Where To Invest While We Wait For Bonds While bond prices currently remain overbought , such a condition will likely not last very long .
As shown below , markets and volatility have an inverse relationship with rates , hence the non-correlation for portfolios .
The long-term log-chart of interest rates and the stock market tells the tale .
This analysis also suggests that the correction that started in March is likely not over as of yet in the longer term .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ downtrend , bond prices will come under pressure as the stock market corrects .
For investors , we can turn to our colleague Jeffrey Marcus of TPA Analytics .
He recently analyzed the best places to invest during rising interest rates for our RIAPro Subscribers .
Not The End Of The Bond Bull In the short term , we have cut our bond exposure and have begun to shift our allocations to protect portfolios for a rise in interest rates .
However , as rates rise within their technical downtrend , the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death of the 40-year “ bond bull market.
” • The stock market will defy higher rates initially until rates start to undermine the valuation story .
• A weaker economy will undermine the valuation story as higher interest rates impede consumption .
• The bullishly biased media will find themselves lost as to why stocks crashed and earnings fell .
While in the very short-term , the current overbought condition suggests we could see more downside pressure in bonds over the next few months .
Such would not be surprising .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market begins to realize the impact of higher rates on economic growth and corporate profitability , bonds will again emerge as a haven for investors against market declines .
In an economy that is $ 75 Trillion in debt , requires $ 5.50 of debt per $ 1 of growth , and running a $ 3 Trillion deficit , rates can ’ t rise much .
Which is also why the Federal Reserve is now forever trapped at zero .

by Lance Roberts
Here we go again. After plunging to new lows, the calls for the end of the “bond bull” market mount each time rates rise. Is this time the end of the “bond bull?” Or, is there another huge bond-buying opportunity to come?
We recently reduced our exposure to bonds, the first time in years, due to the more extreme overbought condition of Treasury bonds following the pandemic’s onset. The long-term chart of yields below shows this to be the case.
There are two critical points to take away from the chart above.
Interest rates are currently extremely oversold (top and bottom panels), suggesting that rates could indeed rise over the next few months. Such could coincide with another stimulus package or the passage of an “infrastructure” bill that leads to short-term inflationary concerns. When rates do rise from deeply oversold levels, there is a point where high rights collide with debt levels triggering either a credit-related event, a stock-market correction, or worse.
There are currently two significant risks from rising interest rates, which investors should heed.
Valuation Expansion
One of the primary themes used by the “Permabulls” is that “valuations are cheap due to low interest rates.” That argument has been the clarion call of a generation of investors who have ignored fundamentals and valuations to chase market returns.
Since 2019, when earnings growth began to deteriorate in earnest, investors bid up shares. As such, the primary driver of returns, as shown below, has come from “multiple expansion.”
The “hope” remains that earnings growth will eventually catch up with valuations. However, despite being 3/4ths of the way through 2020, the outlook for earnings continues to deteriorate. In just the last 15-days, the estimates for 2021 have declined by almost $7 per share despite repeated statements of a recovering economy.
There are two problems with the thesis that “low rates justify high valuations.”
Historically, such has not ever been the case; and, When rates rise, valuations quickly become an issue.
However, since stock prices reflect economic growth, the impact of rising rates on the economy is a far more significant issue.
The Debt Problem
People don’t buy houses or cars. They buy payments. Payments are a function of interest rates, and when interest rates rise sharply, mortgage activity falls as payments rise above expectations. In an economy where roughly 70% of Americans have little or no savings, an adjustment higher in payments significantly impacts consumption.
Rising interest rates raise the debt servicing requirements, which reduces future productive investment. As stated above, rising interest rates will immediately slow the housing market taking that small contribution to the economy. People buy payments, not houses, and rising rates mean higher payments. An increase in interest rates means higher borrowing costs. Such leads to lower profit margins for corporations reducing corporate earnings and financial markets. The negative impact on the massive derivatives and credit markets is the Fed’s worst fear. As rates increase, so does the variable rate interest payments on credit cards. With the consumer struggling with stagnant wages and increased living costs, higher credit payments lead to a contraction in spending and rising defaults. Rising defaults on debt service will negatively impact banks, which are still not adequately capitalized and still burdened by massive levels of bad debts. Many corporate share buyback plans and dividend issuances are accomplished through cheap debt, leading to increased corporate balance sheet leverage. That will end. Corporate capital expenditures are dependent on borrowing costs. Higher borrowing costs lead to lower CapEx. The deficit/GDP ratio will begin to soar as borrowing costs rise. The many forecasts for lower future deficits will crumble as new forecasts begin to propel higher.
Payments Matter
I could go on, but you get the idea as we discussed concerning debt-to-income ratios:
“Such is also why interest rates CAN NOT rise by very much without triggering a debt-related crisis. The chart below is the interest service ratio on total consumer debt. (The graph is exceptionally optimistic as it assumes all consumer debt benchmarks to the 10-year treasury rate.) While the media proclaims consumers are in great shape because interest service is low, it only takes small increases in rates to trigger a ‘recession’ or ‘crisis’ event.”
Am I saying rates can’t rise at all?
Absolutely not. However, there is a limit before it negatively impacts the economy, and ultimately the stock market.
Bond Prices Very Overbought
In June of 2013, when the cries of the “death of the bond bull market” were rampant, I made repeated calls that then was an ideal time to be a “buyer” of bonds.
“However, the recent spike in interest rates has certainly caught everyone’s attention and begs the question is whether the 30-year bond bull market has indeed seen its inevitable end. I do not think this is the case and, from a portfolio management perspective, I believe this is a prime opportunity to increase fixed income holdings in portfolios.”
As shown in the chart below, that was the correct call and, despite repeated wrong calls by the mainstream analysts, bonds remained in an ongoing bullish trend.
Since interest rates are the inverse of bond prices, we can look at a long-term chart of rates to determine when bonds are overbought or oversold.
In 2019, rates began to slide slower as the realization that economic growth was weakening weighed on outlooks. As the yield curve began to invert, the Federal Reserve stepped in with expanded “repo” operations to shore up financial institutions.
Rates kept going lower.
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In March of 2020, the economy was shut down due to the pandemic causing rates to plunge to record lows.
Huge Bond Buying Opportunity Coming
The plunge in rates and massive Fed liquidity caused stocks to surge to new highs despite an underlying recessionary economy.
Currently, the plunge in interest rates pushed bonds to an extreme “overbought” condition.
Such suggests the most likely target for rates in the near term could be as high as 2.0%. While an increase of 1.2% from current levels doesn’t sound like much, that increase would push bonds back to “oversold.” That move will provide the best opportunity to increase bond exposure in portfolios.
We can confirm the same using a very long-term chart (50-years) of 10-year interest rates overlaid with a 10-year moving average. As you can see, that moving average has provided formidable resistance and denoted every peak in rates going back to 1988.
Currently, with interest rates at the bottom of their long-term trend, the risk is that rates could indeed rise in the months ahead.
What could cause such an increase in rates?
A massive debt-funded stimulus package that sends increased amounts of funds directly to households. More debt-funded infrastructure programs. If the government further increases deficit spending programs that fail to produce economic benefits such as universal basic incomes. An increase of economic activity as the economy reopens, and a post-recessionary recovery occurs. If there is a point where the Federal Reserve is unable or unwilling to monetize the entirety of the debt issuance A lack of demand by foreign buyers of U.S. debt over concerns on economic strength and financial stability due to debt-to-GDP ratios.
These lead to concerns over temporary inflationary spikes, which could drive interest rates back to the top of the long-term downtrend.
Where To Invest While We Wait For Bonds
While bond prices currently remain overbought, such a condition will likely not last very long. As shown below, markets and volatility have an inverse relationship with rates, hence the non-correlation for portfolios. The long-term log-chart of interest rates and the stock market tells the tale.
This analysis also suggests that the correction that started in March is likely not over as of yet in the longer term. If rates rise back toward the long-term downtrend, bond prices will come under pressure as the stock market corrects.
For investors, we can turn to our colleague Jeffrey Marcus of TPA Analytics. He recently analyzed the best places to invest during rising interest rates for our RIAPro Subscribers.
“The 4 best performing sectors are: Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Materials The 4 worst performing sectors are: Utilities
Telecomm
REIT’s
Staples The 2 best performing broad categories are: Small-Cap Growth
Small-Cap The 2 worst performing sectors are: Large-Cap Value
Large-Cap Commodities: Crude and Copper are positive over half the time. Crude is the best performing commodity, historically. Gold is the worst-performing commodity; it is only positive 14% of the time. 2 more focus items: TECH beat the S&P500 100% of the time
Utilities underperformed the S&P500 100% of the time”
Not The End Of The Bond Bull
In the short term, we have cut our bond exposure and have begun to shift our allocations to protect portfolios for a rise in interest rates.
However, as rates rise within their technical downtrend, the media will be replete with headlines about the death of the 40-year “bond bull market.”
It won’t be.
The stock market will defy higher rates initially until rates start to undermine the valuation story.
A weaker economy will undermine the valuation story as higher interest rates impede consumption.
The bullishly biased media will find themselves lost as to why stocks crashed and earnings fell.
While in the very short-term, the current overbought condition suggests we could see more downside pressure in bonds over the next few months. Such would not be surprising.
However, as we approach that point where the market begins to realize the impact of higher rates on economic growth and corporate profitability, bonds will again emerge as a haven for investors against market declines.
In an economy that is $75 Trillion in debt, requires $5.50 of debt per $1 of growth, and running a $3 Trillion deficit, rates can’t rise much.
Which is also why the Federal Reserve is now forever trapped at zero.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--A 20-Year-Old Book Suggests China Is Already Quietly at WAR Against Us

October 14 , Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared in Chaozhou City on a visit to the Marine Corps in the Southern province of Guangdong .
He addressed the soldiers there and urged them to “ maintain a state of high alert ” and “ put all [ their ] minds and energy on preparing for war.
” He urged soldiers to be “ absolutely loyal ” and “ reliable ” in these times .
Jinping did not elaborate on why he needed to voice those words now .
He has also recently made and delivered more aggressive and direct statements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members .
Why would Chinese President Xi urge soldiers to prepare for war ?
It may surprise many readers that the Chinese President would be so bold as to suggest that war is on the horizon .
After all , it ’ s undeniable that the United States , Western Europe , and the United Nations built China from the blood-soaked nation of Communist horror that it was into the industrial powerhouse that it is today .
Western nations , particularly the United States , did so by sending essential manufacturing jobs to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ join the WTO as a “ developing ” nation .
That description still maintains today .
Despite all the international assistance China has received in building itself up to today ’ s powerhouse , China has always preferred to play the long game .
Preparing to become the leader of the world ’ s affairs and eventually even dominate the United States .
Is China on the verge of becoming the world ’ s superpower ?
After the United States squandered its credibility , economy , and manpower in wars overseas , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just that .
The United States ’ struggles may be just the opening China needs to advance the Made in China 2025 strategy , an attempt to become the world ’ s superpower in technology , manufacturing , and cybertechnology .
Part of their strategy is to buy up Western businesses .
While the West has been shipping jobs overseas , even manufacturing sectors that are important to national security like medical supplies , China is poised to assume its global standard-bearer role .
China has been preparing to take the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Unrestricted Warfare , ” the book written by two Chinese colonels , Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui , focuses on how China can defeat an opponent seen as technologically superior , such as the United States .
Keep in mind Unrestricted Warfare was written in 1999 , before China ’ s leap forward in technological and military development .
Still , the book does not focus on direct military vs. military war doctrine but a victory with the absence of military involvement .
Keep in mind this book and its description of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( An updated version was made available in 2017 , but is only available on Kindle in the United States .
in Europe , however , you can also buy the updated version in paperback or hardcover . )
What are some of these 20-year-old methods mentioned ?
Notice that the authors mention trade wars , which are taking place today between China and the U.S. A “ trade war ” became a necessity if one wanted to claw back the jobs sent to China decades ago since China would not let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points out how removing tariffs and “ Most-Favored-Nation ” trade status used as weapons .
Many have suggested that WWIII would be an economic one .
China was clearly paying attention to the Western tactics used worldwide then ( and currently still being used ) to destroy sovereign governments who refused to follow Washington ’ s dictates .
Today ’ s China has been hard at work with the same tactics , creating its version of the book ’ s foundations .
Terrorism – Due to the limited scale of a traditional terror @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fewer than the casualties resulting from a conventional war or campaign .
Nevertheless , a traditional terror war carries a stronger flavor of violence .
Moreover , in terms of its operations , a traditional terror war is never bound by any of the traditional rules of the society at large .
From a military standpoint , then , the traditional terror war is characterized by the use of limited resources to fight an unlimited war .
This characteristic invariably puts national forces in an extremely unfavorable position even before War breaks out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves according to certain rules and therefore are only able to use their unlimited resources to fight a limited war .
Many terrorist organizations and attacks , such as the simultaneous attacks on the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam are mentioned in this portion of the book .
Also mentioned are terrorists using new high technologies combined with their other methods .
The authors even said these new technologies would evolve into superweapons .
Terrorism and urban warfare described in these paragraphs may have seemed impossible to create on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and even after 9/11 .
However , decades of economic decay , destruction of the family unit , degradation of the education system , mainstream media , and social media outlets have combined to create the perfect storm for violence .
One need only look as far as the recent battles in most major American cities ’ streets to see that such urban warfare and abject chaos are beginning to take hold in the United States .
This one is interesting .
The Chinese military knows and is willing to speak openly about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earth .
Meanwhile , Western governments continue to claim this is “ conspiracy theory ” nearly twenty years on .
Are there any other tactics mentioned ?
Psychological War – “ Spreading rumors to intimidate the enemy and break down his will ” ( Example ) Media War – “ Manipulating what people see and hear in order to lead public opinion along ” ( Example ) Drug War – “ obtaining sudden and huge illicit profits by spreading disaster in other countries ” Network War – “ Venturing out in secret and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warfare that is virtually impossible to guard against ” ( Example ) Fabrication War – “ presenting a counterfeit appearance of real strength before the eyes of the enemy ” Economic Aid War – “ bestowing favor in the open and contriving to control matters in secret ” Cultural War – “ leading cultural trends along in order to assimilate those with different views ” ( Example ) International Law War – “ seizing the earliest opportunity to set up regulations ” China is contributing and benefiting from America ’ s chaos Brandon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ articles , where he pointed out the Chinese long game .
Like the United States , it is a game of empire , but it is the tortoise instead of the hare .
China has finally seen the finish line .
America is burning its credibility overseas with each bombed dropped , and it is wasting its valuable resources in the process .
It is drumming up hatred and driving developing nations into the arms of China as it threatens and proceeds to overthrow sovereign governments .
Though improving under the Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , its economy is a shell of its former self .
The American people are more divided than ever , thanks to the insidious mainstream corporate media .
Has a war started without a shot being fired ?
China did not cause any of this , but we have to be smart enough to realize that it is and will continue to benefit them and they will take advantage of it .
As an American , watch nearly every aspect of the tactics listed in the “ Unrestricted Warfare ” book take shape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Has the potential war with China already quietly started without the shooting ?
”

by Robert Wheeler
October 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared in Chaozhou City on a visit to the Marine Corps in the Southern province of Guangdong. He addressed the soldiers there and urged them to “maintain a state of high alert” and “put all [their] minds and energy on preparing for war.”
He urged soldiers to be “absolutely loyal” and “reliable” in these times. Jinping did not elaborate on why he needed to voice those words now. He has also recently made and delivered more aggressive and direct statements by CCP members and even Chinese military members.
Why would Chinese President Xi urge soldiers to prepare for war?
It may surprise many readers that the Chinese President would be so bold as to suggest that war is on the horizon. After all, it’s undeniable that the United States, Western Europe, and the United Nations built China from the blood-soaked nation of Communist horror that it was into the industrial powerhouse that it is today.
Western nations, particularly the United States, did so by sending essential manufacturing jobs to China. The U.N. allowed China to join the WTO as a “developing” nation. That description still maintains today. Despite all the international assistance China has received in building itself up to today’s powerhouse, China has always preferred to play the long game. Preparing to become the leader of the world’s affairs and eventually even dominate the United States.
Is China on the verge of becoming the world’s superpower?
After the United States squandered its credibility, economy, and manpower in wars overseas, it seems even more likely China will do just that. The United States’ struggles may be just the opening China needs to advance the Made in China 2025 strategy, an attempt to become the world’s superpower in technology, manufacturing, and cybertechnology. Part of their strategy is to buy up Western businesses.
While the West has been shipping jobs overseas, even manufacturing sectors that are important to national security like medical supplies, China is poised to assume its global standard-bearer role. China has been preparing to take the United States down for at least twenty years.
“Unrestricted Warfare,” the book written by two Chinese colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, focuses on how China can defeat an opponent seen as technologically superior, such as the United States.
Keep in mind Unrestricted Warfare was written in 1999, before China’s leap forward in technological and military development. Still, the book does not focus on direct military vs. military war doctrine but a victory with the absence of military involvement. Keep in mind this book and its description of these tactics was written twenty years ago. (An updated version was made available in 2017, but is only available on Kindle in the United States. in Europe, however, you can also buy the updated version in paperback or hardcover.)
What are some of these 20-year-old methods mentioned?
Trade War – “Some of the means used include: the use of domestic trade law on the international stage; the arbitrary erection and dismantling of tariff barriers; the use of hastily written trade sanctions; the imposition of embargoes on exports of critical technologies; the use of the Special Section 301 law; and the application of most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, etc., etc. Anyone of these means can have a destructive effect that is equal to that of a military operation.”
Notice that the authors mention trade wars, which are taking place today between China and the U.S. A “trade war” became a necessity if one wanted to claw back the jobs sent to China decades ago since China would not let them go back willingly. It also points out how removing tariffs and “Most-Favored-Nation” trade status used as weapons.
Financial War – What is more, such a defeat on the economic front precipitates a near-collapse of the social and political order. The casualties resulting from the constant chaos are no less than those resulting from a regional war, and the injury done to the living social organism even exceeds the injury inflicted by a regional war.
Many have suggested that WWIII would be an economic one. China was clearly paying attention to the Western tactics used worldwide then (and currently still being used) to destroy sovereign governments who refused to follow Washington’s dictates. Today’s China has been hard at work with the same tactics, creating its version of the book’s foundations.
Terrorism – Due to the limited scale of a traditional terror war, its casualties might well be fewer than the casualties resulting from a conventional war or campaign. Nevertheless, a traditional terror war carries a stronger flavor of violence. Moreover, in terms of its operations, a traditional terror war is never bound by any of the traditional rules of the society at large. From a military standpoint, then, the traditional terror war is characterized by the use of limited resources to fight an unlimited war. This characteristic invariably puts national forces in an extremely unfavorable position even before War breaks out, since national forces must always conduct themselves according to certain rules and therefore are only able to use their unlimited resources to fight a limited war.
Many terrorist organizations and attacks, such as the simultaneous attacks on the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam are mentioned in this portion of the book. Also mentioned are terrorists using new high technologies combined with their other methods. The authors even said these new technologies would evolve into superweapons.
Terrorism and urban warfare described in these paragraphs may have seemed impossible to create on a massive scale in the United States before and even after 9/11. However, decades of economic decay, destruction of the family unit, degradation of the education system, mainstream media, and social media outlets have combined to create the perfect storm for violence. One need only look as far as the recent battles in most major American cities’ streets to see that such urban warfare and abject chaos are beginning to take hold in the United States.
Ecological War – Ecological War refers to a new type of non-military warfare in which modern technology is employed to influence the natural state of rivers, oceans, the crust of the earth, the polar ice sheets, the air circulating in the atmosphere, and the ozone layer. By methods such as causing earthquakes and altering precipitation patterns, the atmospheric temperature, the composition of the atmosphere, sea level height, and sunshine patterns, the earth’s physical environment is damaged or an alternate local ecology is created. Perhaps before very long, a man-made El Nino or La Nina effect will become yet another kind of superweapon in the hands of certain nations and/or non-state organizations.
This one is interesting. The Chinese military knows and is willing to speak openly about a human-made superweapon used to damage the earth. Meanwhile, Western governments continue to claim this is “conspiracy theory” nearly twenty years on.
Are there any other tactics mentioned?
Psychological War – “Spreading rumors to intimidate the enemy and break down his will” (Example)
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Smuggling War – “Throwing markets into confusion and attacking economic order”
Media War – “Manipulating what people see and hear in order to lead public opinion along” (Example)
Drug War – “obtaining sudden and huge illicit profits by spreading disaster in other countries”
Network War – “Venturing out in secret and concealing ones identity in a type of warfare that is virtually impossible to guard against” (Example)
Technological War – “creating monopolies by setting standards independently”
Fabrication War – “presenting a counterfeit appearance of real strength before the eyes of the enemy”
Resources War – “grabbing riches by plundering stores of resources”
Economic Aid War – “bestowing favor in the open and contriving to control matters in secret”
Cultural War – “leading cultural trends along in order to assimilate those with different views” (Example)
International Law War – “seizing the earliest opportunity to set up regulations”
China is contributing and benefiting from America’s chaos
Brandon Turbeville warned of these strategies in his articles, where he pointed out the Chinese long game. Like the United States, it is a game of empire, but it is the tortoise instead of the hare.
China has finally seen the finish line. America is burning its credibility overseas with each bombed dropped, and it is wasting its valuable resources in the process. It is drumming up hatred and driving developing nations into the arms of China as it threatens and proceeds to overthrow sovereign governments.
Though improving under the Trump administration’s meager implementation of Americanist policies, its economy is a shell of its former self. The American people are more divided than ever, thanks to the insidious mainstream corporate media.
Has a war started without a shot being fired?
China did not cause any of this, but we have to be smart enough to realize that it is and will continue to benefit them and they will take advantage of it.
As an American, watch nearly every aspect of the tactics listed in the “Unrestricted Warfare” book take shape before your eyes and ask yourself, “Has the potential war with China already quietly started without the shooting?”


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--Justice Thomas supports changes to section 230!

The Department of Justice ( DOJ ) on Tuesday sent a letter to congressional leaders advocating for changes to Section @ @ @ @ @ Act , a law passed about 25 years ago that prevents tech companies from being @ @ @ @ @ on their platforms .
As Internet companies have become larger and more powerful — and @ @ @ @ @ discourse and news distribution — accusations of bias , anti-trust worries and more have led @ @ @ @ @ the aisle to reconsider the merits of protections for such companies .
The DOJ , @ @ @ @ @ Fox News that was addressed to several congressional leaders Tuesday , said it favors changing @ @ @ @ @ the controversy around the New York Post ’ s stories on Hunter Biden , and @ @ @ @ @ from Justice Clarence Thomas .
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the letter .

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Tuesday sent a letter to congressional leaders advocating for changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a law passed about 25 years ago that prevents tech companies from being sued for user content posted on their platforms.
As Internet companies have become larger and more powerful — and more central to American political discourse and news distribution — accusations of bias, anti-trust worries and more have led lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to reconsider the merits of protections for such companies. The DOJ, in a letter obtained by Fox News that was addressed to several congressional leaders Tuesday, said it favors changing Section 230 as it cited the controversy around the New York Post’s stories on Hunter Biden, and a recent Supreme Court opinion from Justice Clarence Thomas.
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The Wall Street Journal first reported on the letter.
www.foxnews.com/politics/doj-citing-hunter-biden-story-justice-thomas-supports-changes-to-section-230-in-letter-to-congress


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-29--US about to lock it down again!?

US about to lock it down again!?

“ It won ’ t be as simple as closing public spaces because public spaces … were very safe over @ @ @ @ @ safe , ” Birx said .
“ This is really something that has happened in @ @ @ @ @ weeks .
What has happened in the last three to four weeks is that people @ @ @ @ @ indoors .
”

“It won’t be as simple as closing public spaces because public spaces … were very safe over the summer and probably remain safe,” Birx said. “This is really something that has happened in the last three to four weeks. What has happened in the last three to four weeks is that people have moved their social gatherings indoors.”
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