investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--We Are In The Process Of Completely Losing America

When I was growing up , I was taught to love America .
My father was in the U.S. Navy , our family spent six years overseas as he served at a military base in a foreign land , and every day I would say the Pledge of Allegiance at the local school for military children that I attended .
It was during this period of time that Ronald Reagan was first elected president of the United States , and the things that he said about the greatness of America ’ s values really inspired me .
Of course no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at one time the United States was united by a common set of values that we were constantly striving to live up to .
And one of the reasons why I am often so hard on America in my articles is because I want us to rediscover those values and start trying to live up to them once again .
Unfortunately , the truth is that all of the things that once made America so great are slipping away from us a little bit more with each passing day .
For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech is being eroded .
Once upon a time , people would gather in homes or marketplaces to exchange ideas , but now we gather on giant social media platforms to share ideas with one another .
And during the early days of social media , speech was left relatively uncensored and it allowed interesting ideas to spread rapidly .
Sadly , things are completely different now , and the level of censorship that we are witnessing is really scary .
There is a certain video that contains footage of prominent doctors talking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ created quite a stir .
I am sure that most of you know the video that I am talking about , because it started to spread rapidly on Tuesday .
But then Facebook banned it , Twitter banned it , YouTube banned it and other social media platforms banned it as well .
My wife tried to put up a copy of the video herself , and it was taken down immediately .
And when Donald Trump Jr. tried to share the video on Twitter , his entire account got partially suspended .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is essentially dead on our major social media platforms , and because they have such a dominant position in our marketplace of ideas , that means that freedom of speech has been severely crippled in our society as a whole .
Freedom of religion is being greatly eroded as well .
States such as California continue to ban large church gatherings in order to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 , but meanwhile they don ’ t have any problem with the large groups of protesters that are gathering night after night in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acts of violence .
If conditions are good enough for thousands upon thousands of rioters to get together and cause chaos , and if conditions are good enough for thousands upon thousands of people to go shopping at Wal-Mart , then conditions are certainly good enough for Christians to go to church .
It looks like this pandemic could be with us throughout 2021 and beyond .
Would some of these blue states really try to keep churches closed for that long ?
And there is also a tremendous amount of concern that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people to take a COVID-19 vaccine once it is available .
President Trump is trying to push vaccine development along as rapidly as possible , because he thinks that if he can announce something before November that it will help him win the election .
But rushing a potentially dangerous vaccine through development and forcibly injecting it into the arms of millions of Americans is not only incredibly foolish , it is also deeply un-American .
And the way that Republicans and Democrats in Congress are responding to this crisis is also deeply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a free market capitalist system , and when I was growing up the socialists were always regarded as enemies of our Republic .
But now there are very few politicians in Washington that are not socialists .
This week we were informed that another “ stimulus bill ” is on the way .
This one is going to involve more direct socialist payments to the American people , but at this point hardly anyone is even bothering to point out that this is pure socialism .
Never before in American history have we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been through the Civil War , World War I , the Great Depression , World War II and a whole host of other difficult times , and yet we have never passed out “ free money ” to everyone in the country before .
And of course we can ’ t afford any of this extra spending that Congress is doing .
This new stimulus bill is “ only ” going to cost about a trillion dollars , but that is another trillion dollars that we will have to steal from future generations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are more than 26 trillion dollars in debt , and soon it will be 27 trillion dollars .
We are systematically destroying America ’ s future , and our founders would be absolutely horrified at what we are doing if they could see us today .
Of course we abandoned most of the values that they held dear long ago .
What was “ right ” in their day is now “ wrong ” , and what was “ wrong ” in their day has now become “ right ” .
In essence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exact opposite of what they originally intended for America to be .
If we stay on the path that we are currently on , there isn ’ t going to be an America .
And it deeply grieves me to say that , because I was taught to greatly love this country from a very early age .
For years , I have been trying to get people to wake up .
For years , I have been battling the insidious forces that are eating away at the foundations that this nation was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to battle , but the hour is getting very late , and America is slipping away a little bit more with each day that passes .

by Michael Snyder
When I was growing up, I was taught to love America. My father was in the U.S. Navy, our family spent six years overseas as he served at a military base in a foreign land, and every day I would say the Pledge of Allegiance at the local school for military children that I attended. It was during this period of time that Ronald Reagan was first elected president of the United States, and the things that he said about the greatness of America’s values really inspired me. Of course no nation has ever been perfect, but at one time the United States was united by a common set of values that we were constantly striving to live up to. And one of the reasons why I am often so hard on America in my articles is because I want us to rediscover those values and start trying to live up to them once again.
Unfortunately, the truth is that all of the things that once made America so great are slipping away from us a little bit more with each passing day.
For example, just look at how much freedom of speech is being eroded. Once upon a time, people would gather in homes or marketplaces to exchange ideas, but now we gather on giant social media platforms to share ideas with one another.
And during the early days of social media, speech was left relatively uncensored and it allowed interesting ideas to spread rapidly. Sadly, things are completely different now, and the level of censorship that we are witnessing is really scary.
There is a certain video that contains footage of prominent doctors talking about potential treatments for COVID-19 that has created quite a stir. I am sure that most of you know the video that I am talking about, because it started to spread rapidly on Tuesday. But then Facebook banned it, Twitter banned it, YouTube banned it and other social media platforms banned it as well. My wife tried to put up a copy of the video herself, and it was taken down immediately.
And when Donald Trump Jr. tried to share the video on Twitter, his entire account got partially suspended.
At this point, freedom of speech is essentially dead on our major social media platforms, and because they have such a dominant position in our marketplace of ideas, that means that freedom of speech has been severely crippled in our society as a whole.
Freedom of religion is being greatly eroded as well. States such as California continue to ban large church gatherings in order to help prevent the spread of COVID-19, but meanwhile they don’t have any problem with the large groups of protesters that are gathering night after night in our major cities to riot and commit acts of violence.
If conditions are good enough for thousands upon thousands of rioters to get together and cause chaos, and if conditions are good enough for thousands upon thousands of people to go shopping at Wal-Mart, then conditions are certainly good enough for Christians to go to church.
It looks like this pandemic could be with us throughout 2021 and beyond. Would some of these blue states really try to keep churches closed for that long?
And there is also a tremendous amount of concern that many of these blue states will require people to take a COVID-19 vaccine once it is available. President Trump is trying to push vaccine development along as rapidly as possible, because he thinks that if he can announce something before November that it will help him win the election.
But rushing a potentially dangerous vaccine through development and forcibly injecting it into the arms of millions of Americans is not only incredibly foolish, it is also deeply un-American.
And the way that Republicans and Democrats in Congress are responding to this crisis is also deeply un-American.
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We are supposed to have a free market capitalist system, and when I was growing up the socialists were always regarded as enemies of our Republic.
But now there are very few politicians in Washington that are not socialists.
This week we were informed that another “stimulus bill” is on the way. This one is going to involve more direct socialist payments to the American people, but at this point hardly anyone is even bothering to point out that this is pure socialism.
Never before in American history have we done such a thing. We have been through the Civil War, World War I, the Great Depression, World War II and a whole host of other difficult times, and yet we have never passed out “free money” to everyone in the country before.
And of course we can’t afford any of this extra spending that Congress is doing. This new stimulus bill is “only” going to cost about a trillion dollars, but that is another trillion dollars that we will have to steal from future generations of Americans.
At this moment we are more than 26 trillion dollars in debt, and soon it will be 27 trillion dollars. We are systematically destroying America’s future, and our founders would be absolutely horrified at what we are doing if they could see us today.
Of course we abandoned most of the values that they held dear long ago. What was “right” in their day is now “wrong”, and what was “wrong” in their day has now become “right”.
In essence, we are literally turning into the exact opposite of what they originally intended for America to be.
If we stay on the path that we are currently on, there isn’t going to be an America.
And it deeply grieves me to say that, because I was taught to greatly love this country from a very early age.
For years, I have been trying to get people to wake up.
For years, I have been battling the insidious forces that are eating away at the foundations that this nation was built upon.
And I will continue to battle, but the hour is getting very late, and America is slipping away a little bit more with each day that passes.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Money-Supply Growth Hits New High for Third Month in a Row

In June , for the third month in a row , money supply growth surged to an all-time high , following new all-time highs in both April and May that came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing , central bank asset purchases , and various stimulus packages .
The growth rate has never been higher , with the 1970s the only period that comes close .
It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months .
This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis .
The magnitude of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unexpected .
During June 2020 , year-over-year ( YOY ) growth in the money supply was at 34.5 percent .
That ’ s up from May ’ s rate of 29.5 percent , and up from June 2019 ’ s rate of 2.04 percent .
Historically , this is a very large surge in growth , both month over month and year over year .
It is also quite a reversal from the trend that only just ended in August of last year , when growth rates were nearly bottoming out around 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate hit a 120-month low , falling to the lowest growth rates we ’ d seen since 2007 .
The money supply metric used here—the “ true ” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure ( TMS ) —is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno , and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2 .
The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth .
This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traveler ’ s checks , and retail money funds ) .
The M2 growth rate also increased to historic highs in June , growing 22.9 percent compared to May ’ s growth rate of 21.9 percent .
M2 grew 4.7 percent during June of last year .
The M2 growth rate had fallen considerably from late 2016 to late 2018 , but has been growing again in recent months .
As of March , it is following the same trend as TMS .
Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boom , money supply tends to grow quickly as banks make more loans .
Recessions , on the other hand , tend to be preceded by periods of slowdown in rates of money supply growth .
However , money supply growth tends to grow out of its low-growth trough well before the onset of recession .
As recession nears , the TMS growth rate climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate .
This occurred in the early months of the 2002 and the 2009 crises .
February 2020 was the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth rate climbed higher than the M2 growth rate .
The TMS growth rate again exceeded M2 in March and April 2020 .
As of mid-June 2020 , it does appear that the decline in money supply growth has again preceded a recession .
Although some observers will likely claim that the current economic crisis is a result solely of the COVID-19 panic and resulting government-forced shutdowns , several indicators do suggest that the economy was primed for a recession .
The decline in TMS is one of these indicators , as is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repo markets .
The Fed ’ s moves to drop interest rates and to once again grow its balance sheet speak to the weakness of the economy leading up to April 2020 .
After initial balance-sheet growth in late 2019 , total Fed assets surged to over $ 7 trillion in June , setting a new all-time high and propelling the Fed balance sheet far beyond anything seen during the Great Recession ’ s stimulus packages .
The Fed ’ s assets are now up more than 600 percent from the period immediately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed asset purchases are not solely responsible for the surge in new money creation , they are certainly a sizable factor .
Bank loan activity has surged as well , also driving new money creation .
Ryan McMaken ( @ ryanmcmaken ) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute .
Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado .
He is the author of Commie Cowboys : The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre .

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
In June, for the third month in a row, money supply growth surged to an all-time high, following new all-time highs in both April and May that came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages.
The growth rate has never been higher, with the 1970s the only period that comes close. It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months. This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis. The magnitude of the growth rate, however, was unexpected.
During June 2020, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at 34.5 percent. That’s up from May’s rate of 29.5 percent, and up from June 2019’s rate of 2.04 percent. Historically, this is a very large surge in growth, both month over month and year over year. It is also quite a reversal from the trend that only just ended in August of last year, when growth rates were nearly bottoming out around 2 percent. In August, the growth rate hit a 120-month low, falling to the lowest growth rates we’d seen since 2007.
The money supply metric used here—the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth. This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits, traveler’s checks, and retail money funds).
The M2 growth rate also increased to historic highs in June, growing 22.9 percent compared to May’s growth rate of 21.9 percent. M2 grew 4.7 percent during June of last year. The M2 growth rate had fallen considerably from late 2016 to late 2018, but has been growing again in recent months. As of March, it is following the same trend as TMS.
Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by periods of slowdown in rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to grow out of its low-growth trough well before the onset of recession. As recession nears, the TMS growth rate climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate. This occurred in the early months of the 2002 and the 2009 crises. February 2020 was the first month since late 2008 that the TMS growth rate climbed higher than the M2 growth rate. The TMS growth rate again exceeded M2 in March and April 2020. As of mid-June 2020, it does appear that the decline in money supply growth has again preceded a recession. Although some observers will likely claim that the current economic crisis is a result solely of the COVID-19 panic and resulting government-forced shutdowns, several indicators do suggest that the economy was primed for a recession. The decline in TMS is one of these indicators, as is the late 2019 liquidity crisis in the repo markets. The Fed’s moves to drop interest rates and to once again grow its balance sheet speak to the weakness of the economy leading up to April 2020.
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After initial balance-sheet growth in late 2019, total Fed assets surged to over $7 trillion in June, setting a new all-time high and propelling the Fed balance sheet far beyond anything seen during the Great Recession’s stimulus packages. The Fed’s assets are now up more than 600 percent from the period immediately preceding the 2008 financial crisis.
While Fed asset purchases are not solely responsible for the surge in new money creation, they are certainly a sizable factor. Bank loan activity has surged as well, also driving new money creation.
Dollar volume for M2 and TMS:
Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken
Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--SENATOR WARNS: THE U.S. IS “STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF MARTIAL LAW”

Martial law should be considered nothing less than a straight-up war on the American people .
Now , an Oregon senator is warning that Americans are “ starring down the barrel ” of martial law .
Martial Law Masquerading as Law and Order : The Police State ’ s Language of Force Anyone who relishes any level of freedom and security should not ever accept martial law .
It ’ s by far , one of the evilest and most deceitful ways to conduct a war on the people who the ruling class has stolen from for years in order @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We are on the cusp of it too , and some areas are already under martial law .
The government has declared war on its own people and they will not give up power willingly .
You have two choices , obey or disobey .
Neither are good .
In interviews with the Guardian , Democrat Ron Wyden said the federal government ’ s authoritarian tactics in Portland and other cities posed an “ enormous ” threat to democracy , while his fellow senator Jeff Merkley described it as “ an all-out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mind , that it isn ’ t like the protestors in Portland are being peaceful either .
If anything , they are being destructive and the regular citizens , are being restrained from protecting themselves in the midst of so many laws and regulations .
Speaking by phone , Wyden said : “ Unless America draws a line in the sand right now , I think we could be staring down the barrel of martial law in the middle of a presidential election.
” Protesting peacefully and rioting are two different things .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
That ’ s more likely than not .
We know George Soros is funding the majority of this violence .
So should cities just burn ?
No , that ’ s not a solution either .
It is possible to be against the violence of the federal agents and the violence of the rioters at the same time .
In fact , it ’ s hypocritical and immoral to take any other position .
You Can Be Against Police Brutality & Looting and Rioting At The Same Time Prepare for martial law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not going to be content nor will they accept the outcome of the election in November regardless of which puppet the Federal Reserve has already decided will sit on the throne .
If you don ’ t know how to defend yourself and some of the fundamental basics of self-defense , now would be an excellent time to learn .
The mainstream media and the politicians are using predictive programming to tell us what ’ s coming , and from what I can tell , it will not be a fun autumn or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Enslavement of Mankind Warn Of “ A Dark Winter ” For Us

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
Martial law should be considered nothing less than a straight-up war on the American people. Now, an Oregon senator is warning that Americans are “starring down the barrel” of martial law.
Martial Law Masquerading as Law and Order: The Police State’s Language of Force
Anyone who relishes any level of freedom and security should not ever accept martial law. It’s by far, one of the evilest and most deceitful ways to conduct a war on the people who the ruling class has stolen from for years in order to ensure they can outgun the enemy. We are on the cusp of it too, and some areas are already under martial law. The government has declared war on its own people and they will not give up power willingly. You have two choices, obey or disobey. Neither are good.
Agenda 21 Requires Martial Law
In interviews with the Guardian, Democrat Ron Wyden said the federal government’s authoritarian tactics in Portland and other cities posed an “enormous” threat to democracy, while his fellow senator Jeff Merkley described it as “an all-out assault in military-style fashion.” Keep in mind, that it isn’t like the protestors in Portland are being peaceful either. If anything, they are being destructive and the regular citizens, are being restrained from protecting themselves in the midst of so many laws and regulations.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Racism is Dead! Racist Elk Statue Burns In Portland, Oregon
Speaking by phone, Wyden said: “Unless America draws a line in the sand right now, I think we could be staring down the barrel of martial law in the middle of a presidential election.” Protesting peacefully and rioting are two different things. Are some of the rioters paid agitators? That’s more likely than not. We know George Soros is funding the majority of this violence. So should cities just burn? No, that’s not a solution either. It is possible to be against the violence of the federal agents and the violence of the rioters at the same time. In fact, it’s hypocritical and immoral to take any other position.
You Can Be Against Police Brutality & Looting and Rioting At The Same Time
Prepare for martial law and continued civil unrest. People are not going to be content nor will they accept the outcome of the election in November regardless of which puppet the Federal Reserve has already decided will sit on the throne. If you don’t know how to defend yourself and some of the fundamental basics of self-defense, now would be an excellent time to learn. The mainstream media and the politicians are using predictive programming to tell us what’s coming, and from what I can tell, it will not be a fun autumn or winter this year.
Those Who Planned The Enslavement of Mankind Warn Of “A Dark Winter” For Us


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--NASDAQ Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders ’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist .
We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes .
The NASDAQ ( NQ ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shock investors .
It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “ Fed Recovery ” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price correction we ’ ve experienced over the past 40+ years .
Recently , the NQ setup a very clear Double Top pattern near a somewhat obscure Fibonacci level ( 85.4 % ) .
The Double Top pattern is a common technical pattern that suggests a resistance has formed near the Double Top price level , near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data and economic data will be announced on Thursday , July 30 .
We believe the move in Gold and Silver is foreshadowing an ominous series of data that will reflect a very clear 20 % to 30 % + contraction in the US and global economy .
The Double Top pattern in the NQ could be a very strong warning that the FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out ) rally may be over .
This NQ Weekly chart highlights the nearly 3,950 point rally from the low in December 2018 to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The current low formed in March 2020 , near 6628 , to the recent peak level , near 11,085 , represents a “ 100 % measured price advance ” of 4,430 points .
Yes , the current rally extended the 100 % measured move by 12.15 % – which often happens as price tests resistance or support .
Measuring from Weekly closing bar to Weekly closing bar on this chart , the 100 % measured move is only about 50 points away from a true 100 % advance .
We believe this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US stock market , particularly the high-flying NASDAQ ( NQ ) , may be setting up for a dramatic price decline .
Both the Double Top and 100 % Measured Move patterns suggest price has reached a limit .
If our interpretation of these technical patterns is correct , after such an incredible price rally in the face of unsure future economic data , we believe a move back to 8,750 is not out of the question ( or lower ) .
Before you continue , be sure to opt-in to our free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so you don ’ t miss our next special report !
Very few people understand the relationship of Fibonacci price theory and how it relates to price action .
Fibonacci Price Theory suggests that price must move higher or lower to establish new price highs or lows within a trend .
Obviously , the NQ has rallied to “ new price highs ” – thus the current trend is “ bullish ” .
Yet , a Double Top pattern is also a critical warning of resistance near the dual top level .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ advance is another warning sign that price may have reached an upside limit .
Now , we add our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs using a 0.854 % Fibonacci extension level .
This extension level is not commonly used by many traders but is completely valid if you spend a bit of time exploring the Fibonacci Number Sequence and the relationship between the numbers .
In fact , there are a number of levels between the 0.75 % and 1.0 % common Fibonacci levels that are valid for traders .
We have drawn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a MEGENTA color to highlight just how critical this level appears on the Weekly price chart .
If our research is correct , we now have three technical/Fibonacci patterns that are setting up warning us that the NQ price may turn downward and begin a new downside price rotation .
When we combine this with the data that we are expecting this week ( GDP , Consumer and other data ) , this could turn into a “ knockout blow ” for the high-flying NASDAQ .
If you were paying attention , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is under pressure and the Precious Metals are showing signs that fear is rising in the global markets .
This next week , and the weeks that follow , will likely result in global traders attempting to re-valuate expectations based on the level of destruction the COVID-19 virus has done to the US and global economy .
Our researchers expect a minimum of a 20 % to 25 % contraction in consumer and business engagement in the US – possibly much more .
In March 2020 , our research team suggested the Q1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as much as -10 % to -15 % , potentially pushing the 2020 yearly GDP level into a -5 % or deeper level .
On Thursday , July 30 , 2020 , we ’ ll find out just how rough Q2 of 2020 really was for the US .
This is when the crap is likely to stick to the walls , so our advice would be to protect your open longs , prepare for increased volatility and don ’ t get married to any position you have right now .
If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , do it quickly early this week .
If the news is bad enough , there is no reason why the US and global markets could not attempt to retest recent low-price levels again .
Remember , Fibonacci Price Theory suggests price is ALWAYS seeking new price highs or new price lows .
Just because the NQ has reached new price high levels does not mean the S & P500 , Dow Jones or other indexes , which have not reached new all-time highs , could not collapse and attempt to find new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities , bonds , or cash , be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers .
NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research .
It is provided for research and educational purposes only .
The Technical Traders Ltd. does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ please contact your financial advisor before making decisions about your personal finances .

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders
Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist. We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes. The NASDAQ (NQ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting and concerns about future earnings/revenues continue to shock investors. It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “Fed Recovery” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price correction we’ve experienced over the past 40+ years.
NQ DOUBLE TOP SETUP
Recently, the NQ setup a very clear Double Top pattern near a somewhat obscure Fibonacci level (85.4%). The Double Top pattern is a common technical pattern that suggests a resistance has formed near the Double Top price level, near 11058.50. Next week, critical GDP data and economic data will be announced on Thursday, July 30. We believe the move in Gold and Silver is foreshadowing an ominous series of data that will reflect a very clear 20% to 30%+ contraction in the US and global economy. The Double Top pattern in the NQ could be a very strong warning that the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) rally may be over.
NASDAQ DAILY CHART
NQ 100% MEASURED MOVE SETUP
This NQ Weekly chart highlights the nearly 3,950 point rally from the low in December 2018 to the high formed on February 17, 2020. The current low formed in March 2020, near 6628, to the recent peak level, near 11,085, represents a “100% measured price advance” of 4,430 points. Yes, the current rally extended the 100% measured move by 12.15% – which often happens as price tests resistance or support. Measuring from Weekly closing bar to Weekly closing bar on this chart, the 100% measured move is only about 50 points away from a true 100% advance.
NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART
We believe this combination of technical price patterns suggests the US stock market, particularly the high-flying NASDAQ (NQ), may be setting up for a dramatic price decline. Both the Double Top and 100% Measured Move patterns suggest price has reached a limit. If our interpretation of these technical patterns is correct, after such an incredible price rally in the face of unsure future economic data, we believe a move back to 8,750 is not out of the question (or lower).
Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!
NQ FIBONACCI CHANNELS
Very few people understand the relationship of Fibonacci price theory and how it relates to price action. Fibonacci Price Theory suggests that price must move higher or lower to establish new price highs or lows within a trend. Obviously, the NQ has rallied to “new price highs” – thus the current trend is “bullish”. Yet, a Double Top pattern is also a critical warning of resistance near the dual top level. Additionally, a 100% measured price advance is another warning sign that price may have reached an upside limit. Now, we add our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs using a 0.854% Fibonacci extension level.
This extension level is not commonly used by many traders but is completely valid if you spend a bit of time exploring the Fibonacci Number Sequence and the relationship between the numbers. In fact, there are a number of levels between the 0.75% and 1.0% common Fibonacci levels that are valid for traders.
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We have drawn the 1.854% Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc in a MEGENTA color to highlight just how critical this level appears on the Weekly price chart. If our research is correct, we now have three technical/Fibonacci patterns that are setting up warning us that the NQ price may turn downward and begin a new downside price rotation. When we combine this with the data that we are expecting this week (GDP, Consumer and other data), this could turn into a “knockout blow” for the high-flying NASDAQ.
NASDAQ DAILY – FIBONACCI CHANNELS
If you were paying attention, you already know that the US Dollar is under pressure and the Precious Metals are showing signs that fear is rising in the global markets. This next week, and the weeks that follow, will likely result in global traders attempting to re-valuate expectations based on the level of destruction the COVID-19 virus has done to the US and global economy.
Our researchers expect a minimum of a 20% to 25% contraction in consumer and business engagement in the US – possibly much more. In March 2020, our research team suggested the Q1 and Q2 GDP data could contract by as much as -10% to -15%, potentially pushing the 2020 yearly GDP level into a -5% or deeper level. On Thursday, July 30, 2020, we’ll find out just how rough Q2 of 2020 really was for the US.
This is when the crap is likely to stick to the walls, so our advice would be to protect your open longs, prepare for increased volatility and don’t get married to any position you have right now. If you have not already prepared for this move, do it quickly early this week.
If the news is bad enough, there is no reason why the US and global markets could not attempt to retest recent low-price levels again. Remember, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests price is ALWAYS seeking new price highs or new price lows. Just because the NQ has reached new price high levels does not mean the S&P500, Dow Jones or other indexes, which have not reached new all-time highs, could not collapse and attempt to find new price low levels.
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Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Communist Power Struggle to Take Down Xi Jinping

China has been hit by the coronavirus , the US China trade war , massive flooding , and that could mean trouble for Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping .
Years of internal power struggles and factional infighting are heating up as Xi continues an “ anti-corruption campaign ” to purge his political opponents in a faction tied to former leader Jiang Zemin , the mastermind of the persecution of the Falun Gong spiritual practice .
Xi is planning an upcoming purge of the PLAC , the Political and Legal Affairs Committee .
But there ’ s also growing tension @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chinese economy .
You know what this means ?
Another episode of General Hostilities Jake , Xi Jinping IS the CCP .
Just like in other countries , there is more than one political faction .
The other faction in Communist China is what used to be called the Jiang faction , or the Shanghai gang .
Jiang was the former president mayor of Shanghai and then president ( dictator ) of the Communist Party , and he controlled the next president , Hu Jintao .
When Xi Jinping became president , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign during which major officials were imprisoned , and some even executed .
These were Jiang supporters .
Xi went clear down to the lowest levels of government and purged Jiang supporters , replaced them with Xi supporters , as well as replacing officials at the higher levels .
I read that a million or more supporters of Jiang were taken down .
There were still areas , particularly the northeast provinces ( former Manchuria ) where Jiang ’ s old clique remained entrenched .
Now the old Jiang faction and others are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and purges are a Communist tool to keep the party alive .
As long as the Communists rule China , there will be oppression .
I believe you will know the Communists have collapsed when the Falun Gong prisoners are released , as their core principals of truthfulness , kind heartedness , and forbearance are directly opposite of Communist principals .
FG ’ s strength among the Chinese people was a terrible threat , so dictator Jiang initiated a purge of his own to destroy the belief , imprisoning them and putting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and instigating the organ harvesting .
This is why you can use their release from prison as an indication that the CCP has collapsed .

China has been hit by the coronavirus, the US China trade war, massive flooding, and that could mean trouble for Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. Years of internal power struggles and factional infighting are heating up as Xi continues an “anti-corruption campaign” to purge his political opponents in a faction tied to former leader Jiang Zemin, the mastermind of the persecution of the Falun Gong spiritual practice. Xi is planning an upcoming purge of the PLAC, the Political and Legal Affairs Committee. But there’s also growing tension between Xi and Premier Li Keqiang over the Chinese economy. You know what this means? Another episode of General Hostilities
Jake, Xi Jinping IS the CCP. Just like in other countries, there is more than one political faction.
The other faction in Communist China is what used to be called the Jiang faction, or the Shanghai gang. Jiang was the former president mayor of Shanghai and then president (dictator) of the Communist Party, and he controlled the next president, Hu Jintao. When Xi Jinping became president, he initiated a huge ‘anti-corruption’ campaign during which major officials were imprisoned, and some even executed. These were Jiang supporters. Xi went clear down to the lowest levels of government and purged Jiang supporters, replaced them with Xi supporters, as well as replacing officials at the higher levels. I read that a million or more supporters of Jiang were taken down. There were still areas, particularly the northeast provinces (former Manchuria) where Jiang’s old clique remained entrenched. Now the old Jiang faction and others are opposing Xi. They are all Communists, and purges are a Communist tool to keep the party alive.
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As long as the Communists rule China, there will be oppression.
I believe you will know the Communists have collapsed when the Falun Gong prisoners are released, as their core principals of truthfulness, kind heartedness, and forbearance are directly opposite of Communist principals. FG’s strength among the Chinese people was a terrible threat, so dictator Jiang initiated a purge of his own to destroy the belief, imprisoning them and putting them to slave labor in prison camps and instigating the organ harvesting. This is why you can use their release from prison as an indication that the CCP has collapsed.
h/t Lily


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL seasons dead before they even begin.

– Over 38 NFL refusing to play .
More to announce the same soon .
– 12 confirmed COVID cases @ @ @ @ @ the new season began .
– 3 confirmed cases in the NHL before it has @ @ @ @ @ players refusing to play season .
More to announce the same soon .
3 monitored @ @ @ @ @ worth trying to try these ‘ virtual ’ seasons .
All are dead in the @ @ @ @ @ .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent @ @ @ @ @

– Over 38 NFL refusing to play. More to announce the same soon.
– 12 confirmed COVID cases in the MLB just as the new season began.
– 3 confirmed cases in the NHL before it has begun.
– 18 NBA players refusing to play season. More to announce the same soon. 3 monitored COVID cases.
Sports is 100% dead in 2020.
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Not even worth trying to try these ‘virtual’ seasons.
All are dead in the water before they even begin.
AC
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Human-generated global ground vibrations ‘dropped by 50% during lockdown.’

Global ground vibrations , generated by human activities such as air and road traffic and industrial work , dropped by @ @ @ @ @ between March and May 2020 , scientists have found .
Researchers say the “ drastic @ @ @ @ @ noise , brought on by Covid-19 lockdown measures implemented by many countries around the world @ @ @ @ @ and most prominent global seismic noise reduction in recorded history ” .
This months-long reduction @ @ @ @ @ geoscientists an opportunity to spot natural events such as small earthquakes that may have otherwise @ @ @ @ @ daytime when there is more human activity .
The researchers believe their findings , published @ @ @ @ @ could help scientists find ways to predict upcoming natural disasters .
Dr Thomas Lecocq , @ @ @ @ @ Belgium and lead author on the study , said : “ With increasing urbanisation and @ @ @ @ @ people will be living in geologically hazardous areas .

Global ground vibrations, generated by human activities such as air and road traffic and industrial work, dropped by an average of 50% between March and May 2020, scientists have found.
Researchers say the “drastic” drop in seismic background noise, brought on by Covid-19 lockdown measures implemented by many countries around the world, represents the “longest and most prominent global seismic noise reduction in recorded history”.
This months-long reduction in global seismic noise gave geoscientists an opportunity to spot natural events such as small earthquakes that may have otherwise remained undetected, especially during daytime when there is more human activity.
The researchers believe their findings, published in the journal Science, could help scientists find ways to predict upcoming natural disasters.
Dr Thomas Lecocq, from the Royal Observatory of Belgium and lead author on the study, said: “With increasing urbanisation and growing global populations, more people will be living in geologically hazardous areas.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Joe Biden: “I didn’t know where we were.”

Joe Biden : “ Good afternoon everyone .
Welcome to the Kingswood community center .
Actually , that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ used to work .
That ’ s a joke .
I didn ’ t know @ @ @ @ @

Joe Biden: “Good afternoon everyone. Welcome to the Kingswood community center. Actually, that’s the one down where I used to work. That’s a joke. I didn’t know where we were.”
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--“How Intel wants to backdoor every computer in the world | Intel Management Engine explained”

Your computer has a computer inside of it .
It is a major security risk and could be used to @ @ @ @

Your computer has a computer inside of it. It is a major security risk and could be used to spy on you.
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h/t sumthinrandom


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Trump does what Obama never did.

Trump does what Obama never did.

Three said the drug-pricing discussion was canceled because the major drug lobbies , reeling from Friday ’ s cluster of @ @ @ @ @ , refused to send any members .
Drugmakers and Trump were slated to discuss an @ @ @ @ @ but not yet released , that would order health officials to release a plan linking @ @ @ @ @ to lower costs paid abroad .
Joe Biden hates low cost , life saving , @ @ @ @ @ media isn ’ t talking about it .

Three said the drug-pricing discussion was canceled because the major drug lobbies, reeling from Friday’s cluster of executive orders on the topic, refused to send any members.
Drugmakers and Trump were slated to discuss an executive order, signed Friday but not yet released, that would order health officials to release a plan linking Medicare payments for certain medicines to lower costs paid abroad.
www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/drugmakers-trump-meeting-canceled-382847
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Joe Biden hates low cost, life saving, medications.
No wonder the media isn’t talking about it.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Indian Navy deploys almost all operational ships in Indian Ocean to send clear ‘message’ to China

Navy deploys almost all operational ships in Indian Ocean to send clear ‘ message ’ to China t.co/dCAOf6IvBe

Navy deploys almost all operational ships in Indian Ocean to send clear ‘message’ to China t.co/dCAOf6IvBe
— EndGameWW3 (@EndGameWW3) July 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--So much censorship against Hydroxychloroquine, what is happening?

A group of American doctors expressed their opinion on the effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquin as a treatment for COVID-19 , their @ @ @ @ @ , Twitter and Facebook .
Their squarespace website is shutdown right now .
www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/ Here @ @ @ @ @ original video www.bitchute.com/video/Brcm2OtyDVlO/ I don ’ t know those doctors , I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ watched the video and their opinion seemed rational and logical , but even if someone @ @ @ @ @ their opinion on this matter , why would anyone engage in coordinated effort to censor @ @ @ @ @ this is the definition of a conspiracy !

by wildseaswim
A group of American doctors expressed their opinion on the effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquin as a treatment for COVID-19, their video was censored on Youtube, Twitter and Facebook. Their squarespace website is shutdown right now. www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/
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Here is backup link to the original video www.bitchute.com/video/Brcm2OtyDVlO/
I don’t know those doctors, I don’t know their credentials,I watched the video and their opinion seemed rational and logical, but even if someone don’t agree with their opinion on this matter, why would anyone engage in coordinated effort to censor their message? For me this is the definition of a conspiracy!
Big Tech is censoring Experts and suppressing the CURE. I will not be silenced. #HCQWorks pic.twitter.com/fenaM9FDHV — Stella Immanuel MD (@stella_immanuel) July 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--@greggutfeld: You think the unbending mob on the street is worse? no, this is. and it’s coming for y

@greggutfeld: You think the unbending mob on the street is worse? no, this is. and it’s coming for you.

Watched a part of it this morning .
Disgusting .
Every single Democrat did virtually nothing except hurl assertions and @ @ @ @ @ answers to gotcha questions , rapidly talking over Barr ’ s attempts to respond in @ @ @ @ @ .
With plenty of grandstanding soundbites for use in campaign ads .
Unhinged political theater @

in that hearing you witnessed people whose salaries you pay, accuse a man of murder and treason – then refuse to let him speak or defend himself. you think the unbending mob on the street is worse? no, this is. and it's coming for you. — GregGutfeld (@greggutfeld) July 28, 2020
Nadler has just ended hearing. One takeaway: House Judiciary Democrats are deeply invested in position that federal law enforcement in Portland has attacked 'peaceful' protesters. Comes even as some pro-Biden voices express concern about riots, violence hurting Democratic cause. — Byron York (@ByronYork) July 28, 2020
"Did they do that before or after the fire was put out?" pic.twitter.com/qz1aUPjzJW — Elizabeth Harrington (@LizRNC) July 28, 2020
SUPERCUT:
Bill Barr: “The law says…”
Democrats: “RECLAIMING MY TIME!!”
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SUPERCUT: Bill Barr: "The law says…" Democrats: "RECLAIMING MY TIME!!" pic.twitter.com/pajVJqFBTz — Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 28, 2020
Watched a part of it this morning. Disgusting. Every single Democrat did virtually nothing except hurl assertions and insults, and then demanded answers to gotcha questions, rapidly talking over Barr’s attempts to respond in an other than grovelling manner. With plenty of grandstanding soundbites for use in campaign ads. Unhinged political theater.
BH


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Twitter just limited the Breitbart account for posting the video of doctors speaking out in support

Twitter just limited the Breitbart account for posting the video of doctors speaking out in support of HCQ

there is a massive conspiracy to suppress HCQ , a cheap and safe drug that can easily meet the demand @ @ @ @ @ at treating early stage CV , and even prevent if taken once weekly .
Donald @ @ @ @ @ Twitter For Sharing Video on Hydroxychloroquine .
Hydroxychloroquine Is ‘ the Key to Defeating COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ .

by Qplus17
there is a massive conspiracy to suppress HCQ, a cheap and safe drug that can easily meet the demand, that is highly effective at treating early stage CV, and even prevent if taken once weekly.
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Donald Trump Jr. Suspended from Twitter For Sharing Video on Hydroxychloroquine.
Hydroxychloroquine Is ‘the Key to Defeating COVID-19’, Says Yale Epidemiologist.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--The Barr hearing today redpilled many democrats.

“ Jerry Nadler makes me want to vote for Donald Trump.
” “ Do it .
I was never a @ @ @ @ @ s a binary choice if you still want to give the Republic a chance.
” @ @ @ @ @ have to like Trump to vote Trump !
!
”

by stampcrabsalesman
Check this thread:
Jerry Nadler makes me want to vote for Donald Trump. — Matthew Kolken (@mkolken) July 28, 2020
“Jerry Nadler makes me want to vote for Donald Trump.”
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“Do it. I was never a Trump fan but it’s a binary choice if you still want to give the Republic a chance.”
“You don’t have to like Trump to vote Trump!!”
And many more…


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Politico labeled Sen. Kamala Harris as Biden’s running mate… that he chose on August 1 (4 days from

Politico labeled Sen. Kamala Harris as Biden’s running mate… that he chose on August 1 (4 days from now).

Politico labeled Sen. Kamala Harris as Biden 's running mate… that he chose on August 1 ( 4 days from @ @ @ @

Huh?
Politico labeled Sen. Kamala Harris as Biden's running mate… that he chose on August 1 (4 days from now).t.co/M3dhmIwZ7o pic.twitter.com/99GDHzWPnL
— Mark Bednar (@MarkBednar) July 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Las Vegas Done – Consumer Electronic Industry Done – CES Cancels Largest Convention in the World

The Consumer Electronics Show has canceled its 2021 convention in Las Vegas .
The show is one of the city @ @ @ @ @ bringing in over 170,000 people to the city with an economic impact that exceeds $ @ @ @ @ @ the latest devastating economic hit caused by Governor Sisolak ’ s all-out attack on our @ @ @ @ @ who this week announced he is setting up Gestapo style goon squads to punish businesses @ @ @ @ @ without a mask , seems hell-bent on destroying the city of Las Vegas and the @ @ @ @ @ his socialist agenda .
CES 2021 was set to be the first trade show at @ @ @ @ @ after a $ 980 million expansion project .

The Consumer Electronics Show has canceled its 2021 convention in Las Vegas. The show is one of the city’s biggest moneymakers, bringing in over 170,000 people to the city with an economic impact that exceeds $264.2 million.
This is the latest devastating economic hit caused by Governor Sisolak’s all-out attack on our economy. The Governor, who this week announced he is setting up Gestapo style goon squads to punish businesses who allow people to enter without a mask, seems hell-bent on destroying the city of Las Vegas and the State of Nevada to push his socialist agenda.
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CES 2021 was set to be the first trade show at the Las Vegas Convention Center after a $980 million expansion project.
CES 2021 may be all-digital, but we’ll see you back in Las Vegas in 2022 ✌ t.co/8H4yoWsO5E — CES (@CES) July 28, 2020
networkinvegas.com/sisolak-kills-las-vegas-ces-cancels-2021-convention/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Fauci says there are early signs coronavirus outbreaks are brewing in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Te

Fauci says there are early signs coronavirus outbreaks are brewing in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee

White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday there are early signs that a coronavirus outbreak could be brewing @ @ @ @ @ Tennessee and Kentucky .
The so-called positivity rate , or the percentage of tests run @ @ @ @ @ to be rising in those states — an early indication that the outbreak is worsening @ @ @ @ @ President Donald Trump and others have blamed the rise in cases in the U.S. on @ @ @ @ @ positivity rate can ’ t be blamed on increased testing .
“ That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve got to be really careful , ” Fauci , the director of the @ @ @ @ @ Infectious Diseases , said during an interview with ABC ’ s “ Good Morning America @ @

White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday there are early signs that a coronavirus outbreak could be brewing in Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and Kentucky.
The so-called positivity rate, or the percentage of tests run that are positive, appears to be rising in those states — an early indication that the outbreak is worsening, Fauci said. While President Donald Trump and others have blamed the rise in cases in the U.S. on increased testing, a growing positivity rate can’t be blamed on increased testing.
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“That’s a surefire sign that you’ve got to be really careful,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--$5000 Gold, $200 Silver; Will it Happen? with John Rubino

John Rubino returns… Gold hits all-time record .
Silver hits $ 26 .
Should you buy more or take profilts ?
Everyone is giving up .
Portland is a ghost town , because the riots are out of control .
Seattle ’ s police are hamstrung ( police chief wrote an open letter to businesses telling them that they ’ re on their own ) .
Pandemic rules are increasingly random and frequently ignored .
It ’ s like everyone just decided to accept the new normal .
Would a stock market crash derail the gold/silver bull market ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In electric cars : “ The majority of electrical connections in a car use silver-coated contacts—silver switches are used to start the engine , control electric seats , and open/close electric windows .
Silver is also used in heated seats , window defoggers , and most luminescent displays.
” Smithsonian report on “ whiteness ” concludes that clocks and logical thought are tools of white supremacy .
Matt Taibbi ’ s latest article claims that the left has replaced the right as the home of authoritarian morons .
Click Here to Listen @ @ @

from Financial Survival Network
John Rubino returns… Gold hits all-time record. Silver hits $26. Should you buy more or take profilts?
Everyone is giving up. Portland is a ghost town, because the riots are out of control. Seattle’s police are hamstrung (police chief wrote an open letter to businesses telling them that they’re on their own). Pandemic rules are increasingly random and frequently ignored. It’s like everyone just decided to accept the new normal.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Would a stock market crash derail the gold/silver bull market? The clean tech boom is huge for silver. In electric cars: “The majority of electrical connections in a car use silver-coated contacts—silver switches are used to start the engine, control electric seats, and open/close electric windows. Silver is also used in heated seats, window defoggers, and most luminescent displays.”
Smithsonian report on “whiteness” concludes that clocks and logical thought are tools of white supremacy. Matt Taibbi’s latest article claims that the left has replaced the right as the home of authoritarian morons.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--The Danger of Media Bias with Frank Vernuccio

Frank Vernuccio is back… In a nation ruled by the people , the media and educators play a vital role .
Voters need unbiased reporting .
and the historic knowledge to place news into context .
That reality makes the leftist bias of most news , academic , and entertainment outlets deeply troubling .
It ’ s not just bias that is disturbing .
Major stories that do not fit in with progressive views are frequently ignored .
Presidential candidate Joe Biden ’ s recent bizarre statement that blacks who vote Republican aren ’ t really black is a prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make much of the comment , despite the fact that both the historic and current record of the Democratic Party is hardly conducive to black interests .
It ’ s hardly mentioned that it is the party that started a Civil War to protect slavery , then pursued segregation in the Reconstruction era .
It is the party that idolized Margaret Sanger , who staunchly advocated abortion explicitly to reduce the number of black babies being born .
Its “ Great Society ” economic policies , perhaps inadvertently , created economic conditions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ class .
An educational system overwhelmingly dominated by Democrats refuses to teach those facts to students .
The bias makes reasonable debate politically risky ; conservative viewpoints are inevitably portrayed as cruel .
Consider the new third rail of political discourse : Those who criticize any spending program produced in the name of COVID , no matter how pointless , ineffective , excessive , corrupt , or even wholly ridiculous , will be castigated as heartless .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Financial Survival Network
Frank Vernuccio is back… In a nation ruled by the people, the media and educators play a vital role. Voters need unbiased reporting. and the historic knowledge to place news into context. That reality makes the leftist bias of most news, academic, and entertainment outlets deeply troubling. It’s not just bias that is disturbing. Major stories that do not fit in with progressive views are frequently ignored. Presidential candidate Joe Biden’s recent bizarre statement that blacks who vote Republican aren’t really black is a prime example. The media didn’t make much of the comment, despite the fact that both the historic and current record of the Democratic Party is hardly conducive to black interests. It’s hardly mentioned that it is the party that started a Civil War to protect slavery, then pursued segregation in the Reconstruction era. It is the party that idolized Margaret Sanger, who staunchly advocated abortion explicitly to reduce the number of black babies being born. Its “Great Society” economic policies, perhaps inadvertently, created economic conditions that delayed blacks from moving into the middle class. An educational system overwhelmingly dominated by Democrats refuses to teach those facts to students. The bias makes reasonable debate politically risky; conservative viewpoints are inevitably portrayed as cruel. Consider the new third rail of political discourse: Those who criticize any spending program produced in the name of COVID, no matter how pointless, ineffective, excessive, corrupt, or even wholly ridiculous, will be castigated as heartless.
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Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--How Government Entities Use Geolocation Data To Identify Everyone

An infographic from the Future of Privacy Forum describes how mobile devices , such as smartphones , interpret signals from their surroundings – including GPS satellites , cell towers , Wi-Fi networks , and Bluetooth – generate a precise location measurement ( latitude and longitude ) .
“ This measurement is provided by the mobile operating system to mobile apps through a Location Services API when they request it and receive the user ’ s permission .
As a result , apps must comply with the technical and policy controls set by the mobile operating systems , such as App @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( including , but not limited to mobile apps ) provide location features or use location data for a variety of other purposes .
Different entities are subject to different restrictions , such as public commitments , privacy policies , contracts and licensing agreements , user controls , app store policies , and sector-specific laws ( such as telecommunications laws for mobile carriers ) .
In addition , broadly applicable privacy and consumer protection laws will generally apply to all commercial entities , such as the California Consumer Privacy Act , or the @ @ @ @ @ @

by mapi
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An infographic from the Future of Privacy Forum describes how mobile devices, such as smartphones, interpret signals from their surroundings – including GPS satellites, cell towers, Wi-Fi networks, and Bluetooth – generate a precise location measurement (latitude and longitude).
“This measurement is provided by the mobile operating system to mobile apps through a Location Services API when they request it and receive the user’s permission. As a result, apps must comply with the technical and policy controls set by the mobile operating systems, such as App Store Policies.”
“Many different entities (including, but not limited to mobile apps) provide location features or use location data for a variety of other purposes. Different entities are subject to different restrictions, such as public commitments, privacy policies, contracts and licensing agreements, user controls, app store policies, and sector-specific laws (such as telecommunications laws for mobile carriers). In addition, broadly applicable privacy and consumer protection laws will generally apply to all commercial entities, such as the California Consumer Privacy Act, or the Federal Trade Commission Act.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--George Soros Spends $52 Million on 2020 Election Cycle layers of PACs in order to obscure his role a

George Soros Spends $52 Million on 2020 Election Cycle layers of PACs in order to obscure his role as a political benefactor:

According to Open Secrets , Democracy PAC raised $ 51,635,003 in 2020 , of which it has spent $ 48,091,590 .
Its beneficiaries are all left-wing and partisan Democrat PACs , including Senate Majority PAC , Priorities USA Action , Win Justice PAC , Illinois Justice & Public Safety PAC , Supermajority PAC , American Bridge 21st Century , and Pacronym .
The Washington Free Beacon described the layers of PACs through which Soros ’ s dollars travel before arriving at their end destination in order to obscure his role as a political benefactor : The liberal billionaire is taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycle .
In the past , he made donations to groups directly in his own name .
This cycle , he has operated primarily by transferring tens of millions from the Fund for Policy Reform , a $ 750 million nonprofit in his sprawling Open Society Foundation network , into Democracy PAC .
The PAC then disburses it to other Democratic PACs and committees .
This arrangement allows Soros to keep his name from the top of donor lists .
His $ 50 million in contributions makes him the largest donor of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million is coming directly from him .

According to Open Secrets, Democracy PAC raised $51,635,003 in 2020, of which it has spent $48,091,590. Its beneficiaries are all left-wing and partisan Democrat PACs, including Senate Majority PAC, Priorities USA Action, Win Justice PAC, Illinois Justice & Public Safety PAC, Supermajority PAC, American Bridge 21st Century, and Pacronym.
The Washington Free Beacon described the layers of PACs through which Soros’s dollars travel before arriving at their end destination in order to obscure his role as a political benefactor:
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The liberal billionaire is taking steps to obscure his election spending this cycle. In the past, he made donations to groups directly in his own name. This cycle, he has operated primarily by transferring tens of millions from the Fund for Policy Reform, a $750 million nonprofit in his sprawling Open Society Foundation network, into Democracy PAC. The PAC then disburses it to other Democratic PACs and committees. This arrangement allows Soros to keep his name from the top of donor lists. His $50 million in contributions makes him the largest donor of the 2020 cycle, though only $8 million is coming directly from him.
www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/07/27/george-soros-spends-52m-2020-election-cycle/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-30--Trump just put an end to the Obama idea of putting section 8 housing in every “overly white” area. T

Trump just put an end to the Obama idea of putting section 8 housing in every “overly white” area. This is big. That shit was ruining this country for good.

I am happy to inform all of the people living their Suburban Lifestyle Dream that you will no longer be @ @ @ @ @ having low income housing built in your neighborhood…

…Your housing prices will go up based on the market, and crime will go down. I have rescinded the Obama-Biden AFFH Rule. Enjoy!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-30--The left is obsessed: California surfing has a “serious diversity problem”

The demorat-run media is out hunting for EVERYTHING that can possibly be racist .
It all feeds their current narrative that America BAD because OrangeManBad .
Excerpts from the article ( with a subheadline entitled , “ Segregated Waves “ ) : “ America ’ s history of systemic racism plays a major role in discouraging people of color from taking up water sports , according to Chelsea Woody , co-founder of Textured Waves , a surf collective for women of color .
“ Segregation laws of this country really restricted who could participate in leisure activities and zoning laws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ areas and coastal towns , ” Woody explains .
The California Land Act of 1851 pulled sprawling ranchos away from Mexican owners and handed them over to white settlers .
Pools and beaches were segregated during Jim Crow , effectively prohibiting Black people from public access .
A 2014 CDC study found that Black American children were up to 10 times more likely to drown than white children .
“ I think the lineup is really just an extension of colonialism , ” says Kyla Langen , co-founder of San Francisco based Queer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aggression may not be directly linked to the color of surfers ’ skin , it often underscores issues of privilege and access .
“ Localism helps ensure that the people who are already there kind of stay in control , ” Manickham-Shirley says .
And if the people who are already in wealthier , beachfront communities are more likely to be white , that makes it that much harder for people of color to gain their footing.
” Read the whole article here .
Of course “ colonialism ” is to blame for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Imagine going through life with the purpose of finding apparent hobbies that lack diversity due to colonialism .

by DCG
The demorat-run media is out hunting for EVERYTHING that can possibly be racist. It all feeds their current narrative that America BAD because OrangeManBad.
Here’s the latest from SF Weekly:
Surfing, despite its roots in indigenous Pacific Islander history, has been seen as a sport for straight white men for far too long. t.co/DEqbMmAWv5 — SF Weekly (@SFWeekly) July 26, 2020
Excerpts from the article (with a subheadline entitled, “Segregated Waves“):
“America’s history of systemic racism plays a major role in discouraging people of color from taking up water sports, according to Chelsea Woody, co-founder of Textured Waves, a surf collective for women of color.
“Segregation laws of this country really restricted who could participate in leisure activities and zoning laws with who could buy land in certain areas and coastal towns,” Woody explains.
The California Land Act of 1851 pulled sprawling ranchos away from Mexican owners and handed them over to white settlers. Pools and beaches were segregated during Jim Crow, effectively prohibiting Black people from public access. A 2014 CDC study found that Black American children were up to 10 times more likely to drown than white children.
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“I think the lineup is really just an extension of colonialism,” says Kyla Langen, co-founder of San Francisco based Queer Surf.
While the motivations behind territorial aggression may not be directly linked to the color of surfers’ skin, it often underscores issues of privilege and access. “Localism helps ensure that the people who are already there kind of stay in control,” Manickham-Shirley says. And if the people who are already in wealthier, beachfront communities are more likely to be white, that makes it that much harder for people of color to gain their footing.”
Read the whole article here.
Of course “colonialism” is to blame for this apparent problem. And “localism.”
Imagine going through life with the purpose of finding apparent hobbies that lack diversity due to colonialism.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-30--This is what NYC looks like under de Blasio’s watch: 176% increase in shootings last week, compared

This is what NYC looks like under de Blasio’s watch: 176% increase in shootings last week, compared to last year

As I previously stated , when you have demorat “ leaders ” who support lawlessness , defunding the police and @ @ @ @ @ ” you can expect no consequences for illegal behaviors .
And you can expect more @ @ @ @ @ this , from NY Post : “ NYC ’ s 47 shootings last week are @ @ @ @ @ year.
” Last week the city had 47 shootings compared with 17 during the same @ @ @ @ @ .
The 47 shootings included 14 murders .
You can read all the shooting details @ @ @ @ @ The good mayor supported defunding the NYPD by $ 1 billion so don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ put in place to address this uptick in violence .
Good luck , NYC .
@ @ @ @ @ need it .

by DCG
As I previously stated, when you have demorat “leaders” who support lawlessness, defunding the police and “criminal justice reform,” you can expect no consequences for illegal behaviors. And you can expect more of them.
Such as this, from NY Post: “NYC’s 47 shootings last week are 176 percent increase since last year.”
Last week the city had 47 shootings compared with 17 during the same time period the year before. The 47 shootings included 14 murders. You can read all the shooting details in the link above.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The good mayor supported defunding the NYPD by $1 billion so don’t expect more resources to be put in place to address this uptick in violence.
Good luck, NYC. You’re going to need it.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-30--The Markets Are Sending Confounding Messages

On December 11 , 1990 , at about 9:10 am on a stretch of Interstate 75 between Chattanooga and Knoxville , Tennessee , a fog so thick “ you could move it with your hand ” settled over Calhoun , Tennessee .
Just north of the Exit 36 Bridge , Deputy Bill Dyer arrived on the scene .
Getting out of his cruiser to help a bloody car crash victim , in the distance he immediately heard tires screeching and metal crunching .
In that horrific incident , 12 people died , 42 were injured , and 99 cars and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred for three reasons .
• Drivers began to reduce their speed at various increments leading to the initial collision and the ones following .
• The fog was dramatically intensified by emissions from a nearby paper processing plant .
The stories and footage of the event are harrowing .
While cars and lives are not at risk , a thick man-made fog is descending over markets .
This metaphorical fog , induced by central banks , is sending confounding and conflicting messages .
Unknowingly , most investors are managing their wealth amid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The confounding signals and lack of visibility emanating from equities , bonds , the dollar , precious metals , and other markets are baffling .
In many cases , they are contradictory .
Most troubling , they threaten our financial well-being .
To make things tougher , many of these markets sit near critical technical levels .
Breakouts through or bounces off of those levels may pose significant implications for the economy and markets .
In this piece , we shine our fog lights on markets to expose these faulty signals and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benchmark U.S. Treasury yields .
The four lines have similar patterns .
Currently , yields are flat lining , and reside near the lowest levels in U.S history .
These records go back to the signing of the Declaration of Independence .
The U.S. Treasury may likely run a $ 4 trillion deficit this year , more than twice that seen in the 2008 recession .
Treasury debt as a percentage of GDP is approximately 125-130 % , up from 64 % in March 2008 .
The world is awash in Treasury debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ second largest holders of Treasury debt , foreign investors , are not materially growing their holdings .
Many have even been divesting of bonds backed by Uncle Sam .
As attestable by record low yields , the frightening supply/demand dynamic conjures no fear in the market .
Since February , Treasury purchases by the Fed have skyrocketed as shown below .
Those purchases more than absorb the new supply stemming from growing fiscal deficits .
Fed purchases also obscure investor perspective of the most important price in any global market , the price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good barometer for expected inflation/deflation .
Falling yields tend to paint a slow growth , disinflationary picture .
Higher yields reflect investor desire for compensation to protect against rising inflation concerns .
Since inflation is , by definition , a monetary policy outcome , changes in market-based interest rates used to inform the Fed itself on the appropriateness of their policy stance .
Today , however , the Fed thinks they are the wiser arbiter of the price of money .
They override all market signals through quantitative easing ( QE ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed-speak threatens even more aggressive policy actions , including yield curve control and higher inflation targets .
They appear to want to do an even more expanded version of QE .
Already warped by Fed influence over interest rates , those actions will further deform inflation indicators and asset prices .
The U.S. dollar index ( DXY ) has seen a tremendous amount of volatility this year .
In March , DXY had a face-ripping rally of 10 points over just two weeks .
Since peaking , it has steadily fallen .
DXY @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As a net importer , a weaker dollar is inflationary and a stronger dollar deflationary .
Therefore , a continuance of dollar weakness warns of inflationary pressures ahead .
A weaker dollar may also result from colossal deficits and destructive monetary policy .
While some argue other countries ’ governments and central banks are doing the same thing , they are not as aggressive .
Additionally , unlike the U.S. dollar , currencies of other countries are not the global reserve currency .
Similar to the current state of the Treasury market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollar movement and its meaning are ambiguous .
Here too , traditional signals and warnings are compromised by Fed policy .
The Fed recently conducted nearly $ 500 billion in FX dollar swaps with foreign central banks .
The publicly stated purpose of the exchanges is to provide foreign nations with dollars .
The real purpose is to keep the currency transactions off of the FX markets .
Ergo , the intent is to reduce upward pressure on the dollar as foreign countries seek dollars to satisfy dollar debt obligations .
If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raise concerns about inflation .
But again , who knows for sure as the barometer is broken .
Gold and silver have been rising rapidly .
Historically , such gains would be attributable to dollar weakness , forceful Fed policy , and out of control deficits .
This time it appears the most significant driver is interest rates .
In particular , 10-year real interest rates or the 10-year Treasury yield less the inflation rate .
The graph below compares the strong correlation of real 10-year Treasury rates to the price of gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is inverted to better highlight the relationship .
Why are real rates so low ?
While it is tempting to answer with an economic argument , the truth resides with the Fed .
The Fed is not only buying trillions of U.S. Treasury securities and other bonds but also inflation-protected bonds .
It is hard to even know what real rates are truly reflective of any more .
Precious metals may be anticipating inflation or deflation , or maybe they are just being influenced by QE .
In any case , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trouble ahead .
It ’ s not just the price of gold and silver that warns of inflation , but the ratio of the two prices .
Gold is a precious metal with little industrial value .
Silver is also a precious metal but with many industrial applications .
In fact , electric vehicles and cell phones , two high growth sectors , use silver .
Silver outperforming gold on a relative basis is typically an inflationary warning .
The graph below shows that in March , gold rallied considerably versus silver .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ trend sharply reversed .
If silver continues to outpace gold , we may be drawn to say inflation lies ahead .
However , we might also consider speculative excesses resulting from the Fed , which are spilling over into the silver market .
Currently , the spread or difference between corporate , municipal , and mortgage debt yields versus Treasury yields are near record lows .
Yields , for a large proportion of the fixed income universe , are also at record lows .
Credit spreads tend to widen and yields rise with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth .
Spreads reflect credit risk and credit risk increases when economic conditions are uncertain or weak .
The current environment may be more uncertain and riskier than any we have seen in our lifetimes .
Yet , spreads say the future has never been more certain .
Fed purchases and threats of future purchases warp pricing and logic .
Similar to the credit markets , risk and valuation assessments of equities are a fleeting memory .
While the Fed has not bought equities , they are laying the groundwork by buying junk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed has their back .
That is not just our opinion , even our politicians know .
On July 22 , 2020 , during an interview with Jim Cramer , Nancy Pelosi stated the following : “ The stock market , there ’ s a floor there , you know that the Fed are pounding away to minimize the risk at the stock market.
” Whether the Fed is buying the safest Treasury Bills or the riskiest debt , they remove assets from the asset pool .
In doing so , they do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets .
Equity valuations are off the charts .
At the same time economic and earnings outlooks are weak and very uncertain .
Most companies are not providing any guidance about revenue and earnings expectations .
Stock valuations and prices should not be at or near all-time highs .
Again , the fog from the Fed ’ s intervention distorts investor visibility .
Investors know that markets are risky under even normal conditions .
Even the best investors sometimes suffer losses .
However , like the emissions from the paper plant in Calhoun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for making current circumstances unnavigable .
The fog of the Fed is rendering most traditional economic signs meaningless .
Gauges to help manage risk are obscured and disfigured .
Even more confusing , some signals are contradictory to each other .
Just as drivers occasionally get caught in a thick fog , investors must navigate today ’ s markets differently than when the sun is shining .
Investors need to modify their behavior to exercise more caution .
This is not necessarily a bearish note .
Opportunities flourish for those aware of risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But , at the same time , failure to do so can end in a tragic financial pileup .
Buckle up and drive with caution so you can reach your financial destination .

by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott
The Markets Are Sending Confounding Messages On December 11, 1990, at about 9:10 am on a stretch of Interstate 75 between Chattanooga and Knoxville, Tennessee, a fog so thick “you could move it with your hand” settled over Calhoun, Tennessee. Just north of the Exit 36 Bridge, Deputy Bill Dyer arrived on the scene. Getting out of his cruiser to help a bloody car crash victim, in the distance he immediately heard tires screeching and metal crunching. In that horrific incident, 12 people died, 42 were injured, and 99 cars and trucks were mangled. The Calhoun pileup occurred for three reasons. Drivers were practically blinded when a thick fog descended. Drivers began to reduce their speed at various increments leading to the initial collision and the ones following. The fog was dramatically intensified by emissions from a nearby paper processing plant. The stories and footage of the event are harrowing. While cars and lives are not at risk, a thick man-made fog is descending over markets. This metaphorical fog, induced by central banks, is sending confounding and conflicting messages. The Fog of Markets Unknowingly, most investors are managing their wealth amid a dense fog manufactured by central banks. The confounding signals and lack of visibility emanating from equities, bonds, the dollar, precious metals, and other markets are baffling. In many cases, they are contradictory. Most troubling, they threaten our financial well-being. To make things tougher, many of these markets sit near critical technical levels. Breakouts through or bounces off of those levels may pose significant implications for the economy and markets. In this piece, we shine our fog lights on markets to expose these faulty signals and hidden risks.
Bond Yields
The graph below charts benchmark U.S. Treasury yields. The four lines have similar patterns. Currently, yields are flat lining, and reside near the lowest levels in U.S history. These records go back to the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
The U.S. Treasury may likely run a $4 trillion deficit this year, more than twice that seen in the 2008 recession. Treasury debt as a percentage of GDP is approximately 125-130%, up from 64% in March 2008. The world is awash in Treasury debt.
As supply increases rapidly, the second largest holders of Treasury debt, foreign investors, are not materially growing their holdings. Many have even been divesting of bonds backed by Uncle Sam.
As attestable by record low yields, the frightening supply/demand dynamic conjures no fear in the market. Since February, Treasury purchases by the Fed have skyrocketed as shown below. Those purchases more than absorb the new supply stemming from growing fiscal deficits. Fed purchases also obscure investor perspective of the most important price in any global market, the price of money.
The Broken Barometer
Treasury yields were historically a good barometer for expected inflation/deflation. Falling yields tend to paint a slow growth, disinflationary picture. Higher yields reflect investor desire for compensation to protect against rising inflation concerns.
That ship has sailed.
Since inflation is, by definition, a monetary policy outcome, changes in market-based interest rates used to inform the Fed itself on the appropriateness of their policy stance. Today, however, the Fed thinks they are the wiser arbiter of the price of money. They override all market signals through quantitative easing (QE), among other extraordinary policy schemes.
Recent Fed-speak threatens even more aggressive policy actions, including yield curve control and higher inflation targets. They appear to want to do an even more expanded version of QE. Already warped by Fed influence over interest rates, those actions will further deform inflation indicators and asset prices.
U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has seen a tremendous amount of volatility this year. In March, DXY had a face-ripping rally of 10 points over just two weeks. Since peaking, it has steadily fallen. DXY now rests precariously at the March lows.
As a net importer, a weaker dollar is inflationary and a stronger dollar deflationary. Therefore, a continuance of dollar weakness warns of inflationary pressures ahead.
A weaker dollar may also result from colossal deficits and destructive monetary policy. While some argue other countries’ governments and central banks are doing the same thing, they are not as aggressive. Additionally, unlike the U.S. dollar, currencies of other countries are not the global reserve currency.
Similar to the current state of the Treasury market and interest rates, deciphering the U.S. dollar movement and its meaning are ambiguous. Here too, traditional signals and warnings are compromised by Fed policy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Fed recently conducted nearly $500 billion in FX dollar swaps with foreign central banks. The publicly stated purpose of the exchanges is to provide foreign nations with dollars. The real purpose is to keep the currency transactions off of the FX markets. Ergo, the intent is to reduce upward pressure on the dollar as foreign countries seek dollars to satisfy dollar debt obligations.
If the dollar keeps falling rapidly, it may raise concerns about inflation. But again, who knows for sure as the barometer is broken.
Precious Metals
Gold and silver have been rising rapidly. Historically, such gains would be attributable to dollar weakness, forceful Fed policy, and out of control deficits. This time it appears the most significant driver is interest rates. In particular, 10-year real interest rates or the 10-year Treasury yield less the inflation rate.
The graph below compares the strong correlation of real 10-year Treasury rates to the price of gold. The right axis, real yields, is inverted to better highlight the relationship.
Why are real rates so low? While it is tempting to answer with an economic argument, the truth resides with the Fed. The Fed is not only buying trillions of U.S. Treasury securities and other bonds but also inflation-protected bonds. It is hard to even know what real rates are truly reflective of any more.
Precious metals may be anticipating inflation or deflation, or maybe they are just being influenced by QE. In any case, it seems clear the barbarous relic is signaling trouble ahead.
Gold/Silver Ratio
It’s not just the price of gold and silver that warns of inflation, but the ratio of the two prices. Gold is a precious metal with little industrial value. Silver is also a precious metal but with many industrial applications. In fact, electric vehicles and cell phones, two high growth sectors, use silver.
Silver outperforming gold on a relative basis is typically an inflationary warning. The graph below shows that in March, gold rallied considerably versus silver. Over the last few months, that trend sharply reversed.
If silver continues to outpace gold, we may be drawn to say inflation lies ahead. However, we might also consider speculative excesses resulting from the Fed, which are spilling over into the silver market.
Yield Spreads
Currently, the spread or difference between corporate, municipal, and mortgage debt yields versus Treasury yields are near record lows. Yields, for a large proportion of the fixed income universe, are also at record lows.
Credit spreads tend to widen and yields rise with weaker expected growth and tighten with strong growth. Spreads reflect credit risk and credit risk increases when economic conditions are uncertain or weak.
The current environment may be more uncertain and riskier than any we have seen in our lifetimes. Yet, spreads say the future has never been more certain.
Fed purchases and threats of future purchases warp pricing and logic.
Stock Prices
Similar to the credit markets, risk and valuation assessments of equities are a fleeting memory. While the Fed has not bought equities, they are laying the groundwork by buying junk debt. Investors have no doubt the Fed has their back.
That is not just our opinion, even our politicians know. On July 22, 2020, during an interview with Jim Cramer, Nancy Pelosi stated the following:
“The stock market, there’s a floor there, you know that the Fed are pounding away to minimize the risk at the stock market.”
Whether the Fed is buying the safest Treasury Bills or the riskiest debt, they remove assets from the asset pool. In doing so, they do not just affect one market but all markets.
Equity valuations are off the charts. At the same time economic and earnings outlooks are weak and very uncertain. Most companies are not providing any guidance about revenue and earnings expectations. Stock valuations and prices should not be at or near all-time highs.
Again, the fog from the Fed’s intervention distorts investor visibility.
Summary
Investors know that markets are risky under even normal conditions. Even the best investors sometimes suffer losses. However, like the emissions from the paper plant in Calhoun, Tennessee, the Fed is responsible for making current circumstances unnavigable. The fog of the Fed is rendering most traditional economic signs meaningless. Gauges to help manage risk are obscured and disfigured. Even more confusing, some signals are contradictory to each other.
Just as drivers occasionally get caught in a thick fog, investors must navigate today’s markets differently than when the sun is shining. Investors need to modify their behavior to exercise more caution.
This is not necessarily a bearish note. Opportunities flourish for those aware of risks who safely navigate through treacherous conditions. But, at the same time, failure to do so can end in a tragic financial pileup.
Buckle up and drive with caution so you can reach your financial destination.