investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Pandemic Heads up – The real deal in China – Coming your way.

For weeks now China has been in lockdown because of the new coronavirus .
Journalist Sebastien Le Belzic who works in Beijing has been living in quarantine at home with his family .
China is taking drastic measures in a bid to contain the spread of coronavirus .
New rules are springing up on a daily basis and the government depends on loyal party members to enforce these measures at grassroots level .
Since the early days of China ’ s communist revolution , neighborhood committee members have helped police the behavior of their neighbors , reporting back any perceived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Along with many others in the Chinese capital Beijing Sebastien Le Belzic has been forced to live in quarantine with his family .
Social media platforms are one of the few ways to remain in touch with the outside world .
Some brave bloggers are using these channels to share their experiences of the crisis .
They are also putting themselves at considerable risk by publishing accounts that are not always in keeping with the party line .
A film diary about day-to-day life in Beijing during the coronavirus pandemic .
One of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warned that the nation is facing a second outbreak One of China ’ s top coronavirus experts has warned that the nation is facing a second outbreak due to the increasing number of infections detected among new arrivals from abroad .
Professor Li Lanjuan , a member of Beijing ’ s expert team on the virus , said she was ‘ very worried that imported cases could trigger another large-scale epidemic in our country ’ .
One of China ’ s top coronavirus experts has warned that the nation is facing a second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infections detected among new arrivals from abroad .
Professor Li Lanjuan , a member of Beijing ’ s expert team on the virus , said she was ‘ very worried that imported cases could trigger another large-scale epidemic in our country ’ .
China ’ s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ( MIIT ) announced on March 19 the number of phone users in each province in February .
Compared with the previous announcement , which was released on Dec. 18 , 2019 , for November 2019 data , both cellphone and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same period the year before , the number of users increased .
The number of cellphone users decreased from 1.600957 billion to 1.579927 billion , a drop of 21.03 million .
The number of landline users decreased from 190.83 million to 189.99 million , a drop of 840,000 .
Beijing news outlet risks it all , says China is ‘ faking coronavirus recovery ’ REMINDER : How The Chinese Regime ’ s Silencing Of Whistleblowers Turned A Local Outbreak Into A Global Epidemic .

For weeks now China has been in lockdown because of the new coronavirus. Journalist Sebastien Le Belzic who works in Beijing has been living in quarantine at home with his family. China is taking drastic measures in a bid to contain the spread of coronavirus. New rules are springing up on a daily basis and the government depends on loyal party members to enforce these measures at grassroots level. Since the early days of China’s communist revolution, neighborhood committee members have helped police the behavior of their neighbors, reporting back any perceived misdemeanors to people at the top. Along with many others in the Chinese capital Beijing Sebastien Le Belzic has been forced to live in quarantine with his family. Social media platforms are one of the few ways to remain in touch with the outside world. Some brave bloggers are using these channels to share their experiences of the crisis. They are also putting themselves at considerable risk by publishing accounts that are not always in keeping with the party line. A film diary about day-to-day life in Beijing during the coronavirus pandemic.
One of China’s top coronavirus experts has warned that the nation is facing a second outbreak
One of China’s top coronavirus experts has warned that the nation is facing a second outbreak due to the increasing number of infections detected among new arrivals from abroad.
Professor Li Lanjuan, a member of Beijing’s expert team on the virus, said she was ‘very worried that imported cases could trigger another large-scale epidemic in our country’.
One of China’s top coronavirus experts has warned that the nation is facing a second outbreak due to the increasing number of infections detected among new arrivals from abroad.
Professor Li Lanjuan, a member of Beijing’s expert team on the virus, said she was ‘very worried that imported cases could trigger another large-scale epidemic in our country’.
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21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
21 Million Cellphone Users
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced on March 19 the number of phone users in each province in February. Compared with the previous announcement, which was released on Dec. 18, 2019, for November 2019 data, both cellphone and landline users dropped dramatically. In the same period the year before, the number of users increased.
The number of cellphone users decreased from 1.600957 billion to 1.579927 billion, a drop of 21.03 million. The number of landline users decreased from 190.83 million to 189.99 million, a drop of 840,000.
Beijing news outlet risks it all, says China is ‘faking coronavirus recovery’
REMINDER: How The Chinese Regime’s Silencing Of Whistleblowers Turned A Local Outbreak Into A Global Epidemic.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Starting Tomorrow, America Will Begin Shutting Down With States Implementing A ‘Stay At Home’ Order

Starting Tomorrow, America Will Begin Shutting Down With States Implementing A ‘Stay At Home’ Order In Place And Closing ‘Non-Essential’ Businesses

America is being pulled into a fit a hysteria and panic , and conducting a bipartisan massive overreaction which will in no wise end well .
How ’ s this for irony ?
All of the things that we warned you about during the Obama years , things like martial law , manufactured panic and hysteria , crashing economies and enforced quarantines are coming to pass under Trump , the person we elected to “ make America great again ” .
Honestly , I am having trouble wrapping my mind around it .
I am not saying that Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is certainly playing into it either wittingly or unwittingly .
Maybe this is the way it has to be , let me tell you why .
“ The wicked shall be turned into hell , and all the nations that forget God.
” Psalm 8:17 ( KJB ) I think the best way to explain it is that when Donald Trump was elected president in 2016 , America was given a ‘ window of grace ’ , God allowing His saints one more pocket of time to get something done for the Lord @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything .
Judging by everything we are seeing right now , it looks like that window is closing , and America ’ s judgment has finally arrived .
And no , America is not being taken down by the pestilence of the coronavirus , far from it .
America is being pulled into a fit a hysteria and panic , and conducting a bipartisan massive overreaction which will in no wise end well .
But what if it is at the direction not of any politician , but of a holy God who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was elected as judgment , remember ?
We Told You Trump Was Put In Office By God For Judgment We told you from the very beginning that Donald Trump was put in office by God , against all odds , as a judgment .
Do you remember ?
Let ’ s take a quick review of what we told you 4 years ago .
Do you remember all the articles we wrote back in 2015 and 2016 , articles telling you why I believed that Donald Trump was placed in office by God @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refreseh your memory .
I told you on February 13 , 2016 that Donald Trump would win in a landslide , and he did with a 33 % majority in the Electoral College .
Then on May 4 , 2016 , I told you the reason why Trump was put in office by God , as a judgment on America and on the world .
I said this from that article : “ I no longer retain illusions about politics or the political process .
Sadly , I do not see a coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I see an unsaved world preparing to go through the Tribulation after the Rapture of the Church where they will meet Antichrist .
That ’ s what ’ s coming , and it will be sooner rather than later .
Listen to me , America , the time is growing ever shorter .
Get your eyes off of red vs. blue and conservative vs. liberal , you will never see the truth that way .
The God of Abraham , Isaac and Jacob is getting ready to insert Himself into our world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These are the days of prophecy.
” READ MORE I thought it was pretty good at the time I wrote it back in 2016 , but today ?
Reading it today is sending chills down my spine as I watch America folding like a house of cards before my very eyes .
Do you , dear brother and sister , realize what you are seeing ?
You are watching a paradigm shift of biblical proportions , and when it is done life will never be the same again for any of us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming is now here , it has arrived , ready or not .
‘ Stay At Home ’ Orders Around The Country Here is a random sampling of states shutting things down in the past 24 hours : • OHIO : Governor Mike DeWine issued a “ stay at home ” order for all Ohioans on Sunday .
The order goes into effect Monday , March 23 at 11:59 p.m. and remains in effect until April 6 .
Officials will reassess the situation then .
• PHILLY : Philadelphia became the latest city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a mandate that goes into effect at 8 a.m. Monday and exempts activities like buying groceries and medicine , seeking medical care and exercising .
• CALIFORNIA : California Gov .
Gavin Newsom announced a statewide shelter-in-place order Thursday evening .
“ This is a dynamic situation , ” Newsom said .
“ I don ’ t expect this to be many , many months , but for the time being , we are recognizing the next eight weeks ” as especially important .
• NEW YORK : Gov .
Andrew Cuomo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents must stay home “ to the maximum extent possible , ” effective 8 p.m. Sunday , March 22 .
Cuomo called the order the “ New York State on PAUSE ” plan , and it bans all nonessential gatherings of individuals “ of any size for any reason.
” • ILLINOIS : Illinois Gov .
J.B. Pritzker on Friday announced a “ stay-at-home ” order that began Saturday and will last until at least April 7 .
All nonessential businesses must close , and all people who can work from home must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Illinois schools will stay closed until at least April 8 .
• CONNECTICUT : In Connecticut , Gov .
Ned Lamont on Friday announced an executive order directing all nonessential businesses and not-for-profit entities in the state to prohibit all in-person functions if they are able to , effective 8 p.m. Monday .
• OREGON : Oregon Gov .
Kate Brown on Friday told residents to stay home , calling the directive “ both an order and a public awareness campaign .
I am directing Oregonians tonight to stay home to stay healthy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early can save lives , ” Brown said in a press conference .
• NEW JERSEY : New Jersey Gov .
Phil Murphy announced Saturday that he would be ordering residents to stay at home , effective at 9 p.m .
He also canceled gatherings of any number , including parties , weddings and religious ceremonies .
“ We need you to just stay at home , ” Murphy said .
“ We have to change our behaviors.
” America can not be “ shut down ” for 6 months , America can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , everything will collapse .
This proposed Socialist ‘ coronavirus stimulus plan ‘ costing anywhere from 2-4 TRILLION dollars will be the death knell of the United States economic system just as sure as the notice hammered on the door of the Wittenburg castle church by Martin Luther ushered in the Protestant Reformation .
A ‘ stay at home ’ order is not the same thing as declaring martial law , per se , but it is so close to it that it hard to see why martial law will not be declared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to stay at home , how will you make them stay home ?
At the point of a gun , that ’ s how .
Here in Saint Augustine , we are already seeing Army convoys riding through the streets .
If you see it in your town , please comment below .

by Geoffrey Grider
America is being pulled into a fit a hysteria and panic, and conducting a bipartisan massive overreaction which will in no wise end well.
How’s this for irony? All of the things that we warned you about during the Obama years, things like martial law, manufactured panic and hysteria, crashing economies and enforced quarantines are coming to pass under Trump, the person we elected to “make America great again”. Honestly, I am having trouble wrapping my mind around it. I am not saying that Trump is the cause of it, but he is certainly playing into it either wittingly or unwittingly.
Maybe this is the way it has to be, let me tell you why.
“The wicked shall be turned into hell, and all the nations that forget God.” Psalm 8:17 (KJB)
I think the best way to explain it is that when Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, America was given a ‘window of grace’, God allowing His saints one more pocket of time to get something done for the Lord Jesus Christ before pulling the plug on everything. Judging by everything we are seeing right now, it looks like that window is closing, and America’s judgment has finally arrived. And no, America is not being taken down by the pestilence of the coronavirus, far from it.
America is being pulled into a fit a hysteria and panic, and conducting a bipartisan massive overreaction which will in no wise end well. But what if it is at the direction not of any politician, but of a holy God who judges nations? We told you Trump was elected as judgment, remember?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We Told You Trump Was Put In Office By God For Judgment
We told you from the very beginning that Donald Trump was put in office by God, against all odds, as a judgment. Do you remember? Let’s take a quick review of what we told you 4 years ago.
Do you remember all the articles we wrote back in 2015 and 2016, articles telling you why I believed that Donald Trump was placed in office by God? Click on the image above to refreseh your memory. I told you on February 13, 2016 that Donald Trump would win in a landslide, and he did with a 33% majority in the Electoral College. Then on May 4, 2016, I told you the reason why Trump was put in office by God, as a judgment on America and on the world. I said this from that article:
“I no longer retain illusions about politics or the political process. Sadly, I do not see a coming new ‘glory day’ for America, I see an unsaved world preparing to go through the Tribulation after the Rapture of the Church where they will meet Antichrist. That’s what’s coming, and it will be sooner rather than later. Listen to me, America, the time is growing ever shorter. Get your eyes off of red vs. blue and conservative vs. liberal, you will never see the truth that way. The God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob is getting ready to insert Himself into our world in a very visible and tangible way. These are the days of prophecy.” READ MORE
I thought it was pretty good at the time I wrote it back in 2016, but today? Reading it today is sending chills down my spine as I watch America folding like a house of cards before my very eyes. Do you, dear brother and sister, realize what you are seeing? You are watching a paradigm shift of biblical proportions, and when it is done life will never be the same again for any of us. The judgment we told you was coming is now here, it has arrived, ready or not.
Military vehicles spotted in downtown Baltimore, near the stadiums… pic.twitter.com/YDwCUKJ51p — FOX Baltimore (@FOXBaltimore) March 20, 2020
‘Stay At Home’ Orders Around The Country
Here is a random sampling of states shutting things down in the past 24 hours:
America cannot be “shut down” for 6 months, America cannot be shut down for 6 weeks, everything will collapse. This proposed Socialist ‘coronavirus stimulus plan‘ costing anywhere from 2-4 TRILLION dollars will be the death knell of the United States economic system just as sure as the notice hammered on the door of the Wittenburg castle church by Martin Luther ushered in the Protestant Reformation.
A ‘stay at home’ order is not the same thing as declaring martial law, per se, but it is so close to it that it hard to see why martial law will not be declared. What about the people who chose not to stay at home, how will you make them stay home? At the point of a gun, that’s how. Here in Saint Augustine, we are already seeing Army convoys riding through the streets. If you see it in your town, please comment below.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Oh Snap – McConnell Gives Pelosi Another Chance to Stop U.S. Market Collapse – Will ReFloor Emergenc

Oh Snap – McConnell Gives Pelosi Another Chance to Stop U.S. Market Collapse – Will ReFloor Emergency Funding Bill at 9:45am Monday…

Man-o-man , this is some high-stakes poker playing , and it ’ s the United States economy on the table @ @ @ @ @ to put S.3548 The Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security Act , or @ @ @ @ @ on the senate floor at 9:45am ET tomorrow , 15 minutes after the stock market @ @ @ @ @ Jesus… I can ’ t remember ever seeing anything like this .
A $ 20 @ @ @ @ @ tens-of-millions of American jobs and businesses on the line… .
And McConnell is calling Pelosi @ @ @ @ @ !
Talk about seriously high stakes politics .
Yikes .
McConnell is going to make @ @ @ @ @ to close debate and advance the bill ; putting them on record for negotiating a @ @ @ @ @ from the deal they assembled .
I would imagine Senator McConnell has talked to President @ @ @ @

Man-o-man, this is some high-stakes poker playing, and it’s the United States economy on the table. Mitch McConnell is going to put S.3548 The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the CARES Act, back on the senate floor at 9:45am ET tomorrow, 15 minutes after the stock market starts collapsing.
[Read Bill Here]
[Link To Tweet]
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Sweet Baby Jesus… I can’t remember ever seeing anything like this. A $20 trillion U.S. economy, and tens-of-millions of American jobs and businesses on the line…. And McConnell is calling Pelosi’s bluff. P.U.B.L.I.C.L.Y!
Talk about seriously high stakes politics. Yikes. McConnell is going to make every democrat senator vote again to close debate and advance the bill; putting them on record for negotiating a deal and then walking away from the deal they assembled.
I would imagine Senator McConnell has talked to President Trump about this….


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--You would think bearish sentiment would be at an absolute extreme by now.  Nope.

After the steepest 22-day decline in stocks ever… You would think bearish sentiment would be at an absolute extreme by @ @ @ @ @ Bear ratio just ticked higher and is still above its 5-month lows .
Dip buyers @ @ @ @ @ towel just yet .
pic.twitter.com/8bvQzKsMho

After the steepest 22-day decline in stocks ever…
You would think bearish sentiment would be at an absolute extreme by now.
Nope.
AAII Bull vs. Bear ratio just ticked higher and is still above its 5-month lows.
Dip buyers haven't thrown in the towel just yet. pic.twitter.com/8bvQzKsMho
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--GOLDMAN: “Business activity continues to deteriorate at a rapid rate. .. We cut our S&P 500 EPS esti

GOLDMAN: “Business activity continues to deteriorate at a rapid rate. .. We cut our S&P 500 EPS estimate for the third time in a month…”

GOLDMAN : “ Business activity continues to deteriorate at a rapid rate .
.. We cut our S & P @ @ @ @ @ third time in a month and now expect a decline of 33 % to $ @ @ @ @ @ basis , year/year EPS growth will equal -15 % , -123 % , -21 % @ @ @ @ @ ” ( Kostin ) pic.twitter.com/uqE8xGEKYQ The Fed balance sheet will explode .
Deficits will soar @ @ @ @ @ collapse .
And the US Dollar shortage of the global economy will probably increase .
@ @ @ @ @ issuances in local currency are going to be even less demanded than they were .

GOLDMAN: “Business activity continues to deteriorate at a rapid rate. .. We cut our S&P 500 EPS estimate for the third time in a month and now expect a decline of 33% to $110. On a quarterly basis, year/year EPS growth will equal -15%, -123%, -21%, and +27%.” (Kostin) pic.twitter.com/uqE8xGEKYQ
The Fed balance sheet will explode. Deficits will soar. Money velocity will likely collapse.
And the US Dollar shortage of the global economy will probably increase.
Why? Because forthcoming debt issuances in local currency are going to be even less demanded than they were.
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--In case you are unaware that corporate bonds are blowing up… The passive bubble is now bursting.

In case you are unaware that corporate bonds are blowing up… IG , HY , and leveraged loans ’ ETFs @ @ @ @ @ outflow in the history of the data .
The passive bubble is now bursting .
@ @ @ @ @ hook : $ BLK $ STT $ IVZ This mess has just started .
pic.twitter.com/RctDFRP30c

In case you are unaware that corporate bonds are blowing up…
IG, HY, and leveraged loans’ ETFs just had their largest monthly outflow in the history of the data.
The passive bubble is now bursting.
ETF providers are on the hook: $BLK $STT $IVZ
This mess has just started. pic.twitter.com/RctDFRP30c
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Fed throwing the farm at it. If the DOW fails tonight it will be no coming back.

If the DOW fails tonight it will be no coming back .
Now you know why Bullard went full Armageddon @ @ @ @ @ for 30 % unemployment and 50 % drop in GDP .
They are all screaming @ @ @ @ @ of panicked people to be granted permission to do anything .

If the DOW fails tonight it will be no coming back.
Now you know why Bullard went full Armageddon last night with his call for 30% unemployment and 50% drop in GDP.
They are all screaming fire in a movie theater of panicked people to be granted permission to do anything.
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Symptoms often linger before worsening

Symptoms often linger before worsening

As physicians across the country diagnose and care for a growing number of people with COVID-19 , distinct patterns are @ @ @ @ @ how the illness manifests itself in patients .
Very often , people start off with @ @ @ @ @ cough , headache , low-grade fever — that gradually worsen .
“ Patients tend to @ @ @ @ @ week before either getting better , or getting really sick , ” said Dr. Joshua @ @ @ @ @ and critical care physician at Tulane Medical Center in New Orleans .
Denson , who @ @ @ @ @ 15 to 20 patients with the coronavirus , described that first phase of the illness @ @ @ @ @ .
”

As physicians across the country diagnose and care for a growing number of people with COVID-19, distinct patterns are emerging, giving clues about how the illness manifests itself in patients.
Very often, people start off with minor physical complaints — slight cough, headache, low-grade fever — that gradually worsen.
“Patients tend to have symptoms for about a week before either getting better, or getting really sick,” said Dr. Joshua Denson, a pulmonary medicine and critical care physician at Tulane Medical Center in New Orleans.
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Denson, who estimated he’s treated 15 to 20 patients with the coronavirus, described that first phase of the illness as “a slow burn.”
www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/slow-burn-coronavirus-symptoms-often-linger-worsening-n1164756


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--BARRACK: Commercial Mortgages on Brink of Collapse… Bond Sales Flood Market Amid Pleas for Help… Vir

BARRACK: Commercial Mortgages on Brink of Collapse… Bond Sales Flood Market Amid Pleas for Help… Virus Reveals Financial Irresponsibility of Americans

( Bloomberg ) — Real estate billionaire Tom Barrack said the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “ domino effect ” of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don ’ t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting .
Barrack , chairman and chief executive officer of Colony Capital Inc. , warns in a white paper of a chain reaction of margin calls , mass foreclosures , evictions and , potentially , bank failures due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent shutdown of much of the U.S. economy .
The paper was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Medium .
“ Loan repayment demands are likely to escalate on a systemic level , triggering a domino effect of borrower defaults that will swiftly and severely impact the broad range of stakeholders in the entire real estate market , including property and home owners , landlords , developers , hotel operators and their respective tenants and employees , ” he wrote .
Barrack said the impact could dwarf that of the Great Depression .
( Bloomberg ) — A crisis in credit markets deepened on Sunday as a cluster of funds that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in assets to meet investor redemptions , sparking pleas for government intervention .
The sales included at least $ 1.25 billion of securities being listed by the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund on Sunday , according to people with knowledge of the sales .
It sought buyers for a swath of bonds backed primarily by private-label mortgages as it sought to raise cash , said the people , who asked not to be identified discussing the private offerings .
The fund plunged 17 % on Friday , bringing its total decline for the week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has resulted in severe market dislocations and liquidity issues for most segments of the bond market , ” AlphaCentric ’ s Jerry Szilagyi said in an emailed statement on Sunday .
“ The Fund is not immune to these dislocations ” and “ like many other funds , is moving expeditiously to address the unprecedented market conditions.
” Congress May Allow Fed to Purchase Longer-Term Corporate Debt… Washington to pick which companies survive… Virus reveals financial irresponsibility of Americans… How long could you sustain your household if you were to stop earning income @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the answer is not for long .
Only 40 percent of Americans can afford an unexpected $ 1,000 expense with their savings .
In fact , nearly 80 percent of workers are living paycheck to paycheck .
It is no surprise that the probability of an economic recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic caused many to worry .
In major cities such as Boston , New York , Los Angeles , and San Francisco , restaurants and businesses have been ordered to close .
For many hourly workers , this means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Almost one in five Americans have already lost their jobs or have reduced hours .
At the same time , salaried workers are concerned about job security , as mass layoffs at numerous companies loom .
While the situation is understandably stressful for every person affected , it serves as a sobering reminder that Americans must learn to live within their means and regularly save money .

Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%…
BARRACK: Commercial Mortgages on Brink of Collapse…
(Bloomberg) — Real estate billionaire Tom Barrack said the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don’t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting.
Barrack, chairman and chief executive officer of Colony Capital Inc., warns in a white paper of a chain reaction of margin calls, mass foreclosures, evictions and, potentially, bank failures due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent shutdown of much of the U.S. economy. The paper was posted late Sunday on online publishing platform Medium.
“Loan repayment demands are likely to escalate on a systemic level, triggering a domino effect of borrower defaults that will swiftly and severely impact the broad range of stakeholders in the entire real estate market, including property and home owners, landlords, developers, hotel operators and their respective tenants and employees,” he wrote.
Barrack said the impact could dwarf that of the Great Depression.
Bond Sales Flood Market Amid Pleas for Help…
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(Bloomberg) — A crisis in credit markets deepened on Sunday as a cluster of funds that own mortgage bonds sought to sell billions in assets to meet investor redemptions, sparking pleas for government intervention.
The sales included at least $1.25 billion of securities being listed by the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund on Sunday, according to people with knowledge of the sales. It sought buyers for a swath of bonds backed primarily by private-label mortgages as it sought to raise cash, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the private offerings. The fund plunged 17% on Friday, bringing its total decline for the week to 31%.
“The coronavirus has resulted in severe market dislocations and liquidity issues for most segments of the bond market,” AlphaCentric’s Jerry Szilagyi said in an emailed statement on Sunday. “The Fund is not immune to these dislocations” and “like many other funds, is moving expeditiously to address the unprecedented market conditions.”
Congress May Allow Fed to Purchase Longer-Term Corporate Debt…
Washington to pick which companies survive…
Virus reveals financial irresponsibility of Americans…
How long could you sustain your household if you were to stop earning income? If you are like most Americans, the answer is not for long. Only 40 percent of Americans can afford an unexpected $1,000 expense with their savings. In fact, nearly 80 percent of workers are living paycheck to paycheck. It is no surprise that the probability of an economic recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic caused many to worry.
In major cities such as Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, restaurants and businesses have been ordered to close. For many hourly workers, this means no paychecks in the coming weeks. Almost one in five Americans have already lost their jobs or have reduced hours. At the same time, salaried workers are concerned about job security, as mass layoffs at numerous companies loom. While the situation is understandably stressful for every person affected, it serves as a sobering reminder that Americans must learn to live within their means and regularly save money.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Do Not Fear, Look For Message, Dark To Light, Operators Ready

The [ DS ] /MSM are now trapped the patriots have them exactly where they want them .
There is @ @ @ @ @ Look for the message from POTUS , watch each Friday .
Operators are standing by @ @ @ @ @ AF1 will go from Dark to Light .
Be safe .

The [DS]/MSM are now trapped the patriots have them exactly where they want them. There is an operation at hand. Look for the message from POTUS, watch each Friday. Operators are standing by, they are ready. AF1 will go from Dark to Light. Be safe.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--Australia’s Construction Industry “On Brink of Collapse”: Started Going to Heck Last Year, Now Comes

Australia’s Construction Industry “On Brink of Collapse”: Started Going to Heck Last Year, Now Comes COVID-19

Australia ’ s construction industry , which accounts for 13 % of Australia ’ s GDP and one in ten jobs , is unsustainable and on the brink of collapse , according to Joe Barr , the CEO of John Holland , one of Australia ’ s biggest infrastructure firms and a wholly owned subsidiary of China Communications Construction Company ( CCCC ) .
“ I won ’ t sugar coat it , ” he told The Australian Financial Review .
“ Tier one contractors in Australia are not making any money , and governments across Australia keep having successive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was not exactly subtle : Unless the government recognizes the pressures the industry is under and allows construction companies to renegotiate contracts that are either behind schedule or beset with cost overruns , companies could begin dropping like flies .
Bailouts , while not explicitly mentioned in the interview , may also be on the docket .
It ’ s a message that has been conveyed by captains of all kinds of industry in all kinds of countries since Financial Crisis 2 began .
As the economy freezes , companies suddenly see their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of force of habit , they then ask the government to make up the difference .
In the case of Australia ’ s construction industry , it was already in trouble before the virus crisis hit .
By the tail-end of last year , a multi-year boom had begun to turn to bust .
And companies in the sector are now beginning to panic .
“ We are in the midst of Australia ’ s biggest infrastructure boom , but as an industry , we are teetering on the brink of collapse , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government has ] projects worth hundreds of billions in planning along the east coast , it is unclear if there will be an industry left to build them.
” John Holland posted a A $ 60 million loss for 2019 after multiple margin write-downs on specific projects .
Its biggest headache is the A $ 6.7 billion ( US $ 3.9 billion ) West Gate Tunnel project in Melbourne , which has been suspended for months following a dispute over who should pay the extra costs of dealing with huge volumes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tunnel : the builders ( John Holland and CIMIC , Australia ’ s largest construction company ) or roadtoll company Transurban .
CIMIC and John Holland already terminated a contract to build the new tunnel in January , arguing they were not responsible for the unexpected cost and difficulty of disposing of the soil , which contains dangerously high levels of PFAS ( per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances ) .
Neither the government nor Transurban wants to stump up the cash either .
The longer the dispute simmers , the more likely it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the last thing that either John Holland or CIMIC needs right now .
Both companies were in the red for 2019 — CIMIC to the tune of $ 1 billion .
The loss came from the company ’ s decision to book a A $ 1.8 billion ( US $ 1.2 billion ) charge-off after failing to recover debts owed for projects built ( or in some cases , barely built at all ) at the tail end of Dubai ’ s property bubble .
These project failures have cost the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock has plunged by 60 % since April 2019 , wiping around A $ 9 billion in market value .
Even before the arrival of Financial Crisis 2 , the shares had plunged 40 % .
The initial trigger was a report that accused CIMIC of using reverse factoring agreements to create the illusion of cash flow , reduce the appearance of debt , and lower its leverage ratios — a charge the company has since admitted .
Like other companies in the sector , CIMIC appears to have been making liberal use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factoring to mask its cash flow issues .
And then the virus crisis began .
While Australia , currently in early autumn , has not been as affected by the virus as many countries in the northern hemisphere , the number of Covid-19 cases down under is rising , recently surpassing 1,000 .
The virus has also hit Australia ’ s production and supply chains which are heavily dependent on Asia , in particular China , Australia ’ s largest trading partner .
For CIMIC , the recent market turmoil could end up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ services unit , Thiess , which was supposed to help stabilize its finances .
The market response was brutal .
Last Thursday , CIMIC ’ s shares crashed by 31 % to their lowest level since 2005 .
Then , on Friday , the shares bounced back 51 % , but only after CIMIC ’ s majority shareholder , German construction giant Hochtief , signaled that it was buying 4.3 million new shares .
That was enough to reassure investors , at least for one day .
But concerns are rising , both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even before COVID-19 struck , disrupting the sector ’ s supply chains and halting activity on a few projects , Australia ’ s construction industry was already in the doldrums .
In the fourth quarter of 2019 , activity in the sector slumped by 7.4 % year on year .
The residential building segment bore the brunt of the downturn , with a 12.6 % year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter .
This was largely a result of the housing bust that swept through Australia ’ s core markets from late 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s bushfires then added to it : Also in the dumps is the “ engineering construction ” segment — a category that includes the design and delivery of industrial plant , such as the construction of structures for the oil and gas industries , power generation , processing , mining and manufacturing industries , roads , water and environmental works .
According to ABS data , the volume of engineering construction work performed during the fourth quarter of 2019 dropped by 8 % year on year .
These sorts of projects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CIMIC and John Holland .
Now there ’ s less of them , industry representatives are clamoring for the government to lend a helping hand .
The government has already unveiled a A $ 6.7 billion stimulus package for small businesses while the Reserve Bank of Australia has made extra funds available to banks and non-bank lenders so that they can provide support to companies .
It ’ s a welcome step in the right direction , says Rebecca Casson , CEO of industry group Master Builders Victoria , but not enough .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ approve reasonable requests for time extensions even if the contracts do not technically allow them .
Industry groups are also calling on the government to launch a new public infrastructure maintenance program across Eastern Australia , to provide fresh work for companies in the sector .
But fulfilling that work might be easier said than done given the growing problems companies are facing getting hold of basic raw materials , many of which are sourced from South East Asia , where countries such as Malaysia are already beginning to shut down their economies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ STREET .

Bailouts, please!
Australia’s construction industry, which accounts for 13% of Australia’s GDP and one in ten jobs, is unsustainable and on the brink of collapse, according to Joe Barr, the CEO of John Holland, one of Australia’s biggest infrastructure firms and a wholly owned subsidiary of China Communications Construction Company (CCCC).
“I won’t sugar coat it,” he told The Australian Financial Review. “Tier one contractors in Australia are not making any money, and governments across Australia keep having successive project cost blowouts.”
The underlying message was not exactly subtle: Unless the government recognizes the pressures the industry is under and allows construction companies to renegotiate contracts that are either behind schedule or beset with cost overruns, companies could begin dropping like flies. Bailouts, while not explicitly mentioned in the interview, may also be on the docket.
It’s a message that has been conveyed by captains of all kinds of industry in all kinds of countries since Financial Crisis 2 began. As the economy freezes, companies suddenly see their revenues and earnings drop precipitously. Out of force of habit, they then ask the government to make up the difference.
In the case of Australia’s construction industry, it was already in trouble before the virus crisis hit. By the tail-end of last year, a multi-year boom had begun to turn to bust. And companies in the sector are now beginning to panic.
“We are in the midst of Australia’s biggest infrastructure boom, but as an industry, we are teetering on the brink of collapse,” Barr said. “While [the government has] projects worth hundreds of billions in planning along the east coast, it is unclear if there will be an industry left to build them.”
John Holland posted a A$60 million loss for 2019 after multiple margin write-downs on specific projects. Its biggest headache is the A$6.7 billion (US$3.9 billion) West Gate Tunnel project in Melbourne, which has been suspended for months following a dispute over who should pay the extra costs of dealing with huge volumes of contaminated soil at one stretch of the tunnel: the builders (John Holland and CIMIC, Australia’s largest construction company) or roadtoll company Transurban.
CIMIC and John Holland already terminated a contract to build the new tunnel in January, arguing they were not responsible for the unexpected cost and difficulty of disposing of the soil, which contains dangerously high levels of PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances). Neither the government nor Transurban wants to stump up the cash either. The longer the dispute simmers, the more likely it is to scupper the project altogether.
That is the last thing that either John Holland or CIMIC needs right now. Both companies were in the red for 2019 — CIMIC to the tune of $1 billion. The loss came from the company’s decision to book a A$1.8 billion (US$1.2 billion) charge-off after failing to recover debts owed for projects built (or in some cases, barely built at all) at the tail end of Dubai’s property bubble. These project failures have cost the company billions in losses.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
CIMIC’s stock has plunged by 60% since April 2019, wiping around A$9 billion in market value. Even before the arrival of Financial Crisis 2, the shares had plunged 40%. The initial trigger was a report that accused CIMIC of using reverse factoring agreements to create the illusion of cash flow, reduce the appearance of debt, and lower its leverage ratios — a charge the company has since admitted. Like other companies in the sector, CIMIC appears to have been making liberal use of supply chain finance techniques like reverse factoring to mask its cash flow issues.
And then the virus crisis began. While Australia, currently in early autumn, has not been as affected by the virus as many countries in the northern hemisphere, the number of Covid-19 cases down under is rising, recently surpassing 1,000. The virus has also hit Australia’s production and supply chains which are heavily dependent on Asia, in particular China, Australia’s largest trading partner. For CIMIC, the recent market turmoil could end up scuppering the sale of its massive mining services unit, Thiess, which was supposed to help stabilize its finances.
The market response was brutal. Last Thursday, CIMIC’s shares crashed by 31% to their lowest level since 2005. Then, on Friday, the shares bounced back 51%, but only after CIMIC’s majority shareholder, German construction giant Hochtief, signaled that it was buying 4.3 million new shares. That was enough to reassure investors, at least for one day. But concerns are rising, both at CIMIC and the industry at large.
Even before COVID-19 struck, disrupting the sector’s supply chains and halting activity on a few projects, Australia’s construction industry was already in the doldrums. In the fourth quarter of 2019, activity in the sector slumped by 7.4% year on year. The residential building segment bore the brunt of the downturn, with a 12.6% year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter. This was largely a result of the housing bust that swept through Australia’s core markets from late 2017 through mid-2019. The disruptions from last year’s bushfires then added to it:
Also in the dumps is the “engineering construction” segment — a category that includes the design and delivery of industrial plant, such as the construction of structures for the oil and gas industries, power generation, processing, mining and manufacturing industries, roads, water and environmental works. According to ABS data, the volume of engineering construction work performed during the fourth quarter of 2019 dropped by 8% year on year.
These sorts of projects are bread and butter for companies like CIMIC and John Holland. Now there’s less of them, industry representatives are clamoring for the government to lend a helping hand.
The government has already unveiled a A$6.7 billion stimulus package for small businesses while the Reserve Bank of Australia has made extra funds available to banks and non-bank lenders so that they can provide support to companies. It’s a welcome step in the right direction, says Rebecca Casson, CEO of industry group Master Builders Victoria, but not enough. Casson urged all levels of government to approve reasonable requests for time extensions even if the contracts do not technically allow them.
Industry groups are also calling on the government to launch a new public infrastructure maintenance program across Eastern Australia, to provide fresh work for companies in the sector. But fulfilling that work might be easier said than done given the growing problems companies are facing getting hold of basic raw materials, many of which are sourced from South East Asia, where countries such as Malaysia are already beginning to shut down their economies. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--The System Will Not Return to “Normal,” and That’s Good; We Can Do Better

The pandemic is revealing to all what many of us have known for a long time : the status quo was designed to fail and so its failure was not just predictable but inevitable .
We ’ ve propped up a dysfunctional , wasteful and unsustainable system by pouring trillions of dollars in borrowed money down a multitude of ratholes to avoid a reckoning and a re-set .
And very predictably , that ’ s the “ solution ” to the unraveling triggered by the pandemic : borrow more trillions and pour most of it down the same old ratholes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be talking about : the entire global system desperately needs a re-set .
We can do better , and we should do better .
That ’ s what I ’ ve been writing about for the past 12 years .
To further the discussions we should be having about doing better , I ’ m cutting 30 % off the price of seven of my books : ebooks are now $ 5 , print books are now $ 10 .
Every book has a free summary/sample page where you can find out more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to spend the weeks/months of lockdown than reading about the better future we need and deserve ?
To buy a book , click on the cover below : The Nearly Free University and The Emerging Economy : The Revolution in Higher Education Reconnecting higher education , livelihoods and the real economy This book outlines ways we can provide a superior college education for 10 % -20 % of the current ( unaffordable ) cost .
Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It Our financial-political-social system has been rotten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It doesn ’ t have to be this way .
“ I no longer care if the power centers of our society–the distant , fortified castles of our financial feudal systemâ€ ” are changed by my actions , for I am liberated by the act of resistance .
I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power .
I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy .
I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-interests.
” An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times Written 9 years ago , the precepts of social capital and controlling your capital are even more relevant today .
A Radically Beneficial World : Automation , Technology and Creating Jobs for All : The Future Belongs to Work That Is Meaningful We desperately need a profound re-set on the way we work , pay for work and prioritize what work gets done .
Pathfinding our Destiny : Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic Our political system and the economy it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relocalized .
Will You Be Richer or Poorer ?
: Profit , Power and A.I .
in a Traumatized World The promise of technology has been harnessed to widen the immense gaps in wealth and power between the super-rich and the rest of us .
It doesn ’ t have to be this way : AI and technology could restore some balance to an ecologically endangered world if we change the predatory economic-political power structure .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Essential home lockdown reading.
The pandemic is revealing to all what many of us have known for a long time: the status quo was designed to fail and so its failure was not just predictable but inevitable.
We’ve propped up a dysfunctional, wasteful and unsustainable system by pouring trillions of dollars in borrowed money down a multitude of ratholes to avoid a reckoning and a re-set. And very predictably, that’s the “solution” to the unraveling triggered by the pandemic: borrow more trillions and pour most of it down the same old ratholes.
Here’s what we should be talking about: the entire global system desperately needs a re-set. We can do better, and we should do better. That’s what I’ve been writing about for the past 12 years.
To further the discussions we should be having about doing better, I’m cutting 30% off the price of seven of my books: ebooks are now $5, print books are now $10.
Every book has a free summary/sample page where you can find out more about the contents.
What better way to spend the weeks/months of lockdown than reading about the better future we need and deserve? To buy a book, click on the cover below:
The Nearly Free University and The Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education Reconnecting higher education, livelihoods and the real economy
This book outlines ways we can provide a superior college education for 10%-20% of the current (unaffordable) cost.
Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It
Our financial-political-social system has been rotten to the core for two decades. It doesn’t have to be this way.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change
The credo of liberation:
“I no longer care if the power centers of our society–the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal systemâ€”are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests.”
An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times
Written 9 years ago, the precepts of social capital and controlling your capital are even more relevant today.
A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All: The Future Belongs to Work That Is Meaningful
We desperately need a profound re-set on the way we work, pay for work and prioritize what work gets done.
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic
Our political system and the economy it controls both need to be decentralized and relocalized.
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power and A.I. in a Traumatized World
The promise of technology has been harnessed to widen the immense gaps in wealth and power between the super-rich and the rest of us. It doesn’t have to be this way: AI and technology could restore some balance to an ecologically endangered world if we change the predatory economic-political power structure.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--So Far, The Number Of Americans That Have Died From The Coronavirus Is Greater Than The Number That

So Far, The Number Of Americans That Have Died From The Coronavirus Is Greater Than The Number That Have Recovered

The information that I am about to share with you is quite disturbing , and it has some very alarming implications .
One of the great mysteries of this coronavirus pandemic has been the widely varying death rates that we have been witnessing all over the world .
For example , South Korea has had 8,981 confirmed cases so far .
Of those cases that have been resolved one way or the other , 111 victims have died and 3,166 victims have recovered .
So that would seem to indicate a very low death rate in that nation .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Up to this point , there have been 59,138 confirmed cases .
Of the cases that have been resolved , 5,476 victims have died and 7,024 have recovered .
Needless to say , that would seem to indicate a very , very high death rate in Italy .
Nobody really knows why this is happening .
Scientists in China claim that there is more than one strain of the coronavirus and that one is more deadly than the other .
So it has been theorized that the strain hitting Italy and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is affecting South Korea .
Alternatively , there are some that believe that certain pain killers used in the western world greatly accelerate the multiplication of the virus , and this is something that I wrote about a few days ago .
But the truth is that we really don ’ t know for sure why death rates in different countries are so vastly different .
With that being said , let me share with you the latest numbers from the United States .
At this moment , there are 34,717 confirmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them will not be resolved for some time .
Of those cases that have reached a final resolution , 452 have died , and only 178 have recovered .
Over time , I expect the number that have recovered to eventually greatly surpass the number that have died , and there are a couple of reasons why I believe this .
For one , it can take many weeks to recover , but those that die can do so relatively quickly .
Secondly , expanded testing will ultimately reveal a lot more mild @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases will eventually recover .
Having said that , the numbers that the U.S. is reporting so far are nothing short of horrifying .
If most of the country eventually catches this virus , it looks like the death toll could be in the millions .
And at this point , New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is warning that 80 percent of the population of his state will eventually become infected… Over the past few days , victims in New York City have been dying at a rate of more than one person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told that New York hospitals are “ like a war zone ” right now .
Sadly , this is just the beginning .
Over on the west coast , things have gotten so bad in L.A. County that they have mostly given up on testing people… In other words , we will no longer really have any idea how bad the outbreak is in the Los Angeles area from now on .
And without identifying those that are infected and making sure they are isolated , all hope of containing the pandemic in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many are hoping that the current “ shelter-in-place ” order in California will help slow down the spread of COVID-19 , but what will happen when it ends ?
At this point , many Californians are already getting restless .
In fact , Governor Gavin Newsom ’ s wife seems quite concerned that her family will “ run out of toilet paper , paper towels , and Kleenex tomorrow ” … The truth is that most Americans are simply not equipped to handle any sort of an extended crisis , and that appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On Sunday , the entire country was stunned when we learned that U.S .
Senator Rand Paul has tested positive .
Let us be in prayer for him and his entire family .
But pretty soon so many famous people will be testing positive that we won ’ t be able to keep track of them all .
The attending physician of Congress believes that up to 150 million Americans will eventually become infected , and if that happens the virus will literally be everywhere .
That doesn ’ t mean that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoid COVID-19 .
If you doubt the deadliness of this virus , I would like for you to consider what a medical worker in Louisiana is saying… “ Reading about it in the news , I knew it was going to be bad , but we deal with the flu every year so I was thinking : Well , it ’ s probably not that much worse than the flu .
But seeing patients with COVID-19 completely changed my perspective , and it ’ s a lot more frightening.
” “ I have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yeah , I was kind of shocked .
I ’ m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history , and they are completely wiped out , like they ’ ve been hit by a truck .
This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit , healthy people .
Patients will be on minimal support , on a little bit of oxygen , and then all of a sudden , they go into complete respiratory arrest , shut down and can ’ t breathe at all.
” I have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that believe that this coronavirus is about the same as the flu .
Coronavirus victims have told us stories of being curled up in a fetal position crying for mercy as “ blinding pain ” roars through their bodies .
As their lungs fill up with fluid , many report feeling like they can barely breathe for days on end .
The unlucky ones end up dead , but even many of the “ lucky ones ” end up with permanent lung damage .
Please do whatever you possibly can to boost your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like a large percentage of the population will be grappling with this virus at some point .
When New Jersey Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli was asked if she was worried about catching the virus , she warned that everyone will be infected eventually… I don ’ t believe that is true , and I believe that there are many Americans that will never catch the virus .
But without a doubt it is sweeping across America at a speed that is absolutely breathtaking , and the death toll is ahead of even the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A great plague has hit America , and we are still only in the very early chapters .
This is the moment in our history when everything starts changing , and the days ahead are going to be exceedingly challenging .

by Michael Snyder
The information that I am about to share with you is quite disturbing, and it has some very alarming implications. One of the great mysteries of this coronavirus pandemic has been the widely varying death rates that we have been witnessing all over the world. For example, South Korea has had 8,981 confirmed cases so far. Of those cases that have been resolved one way or the other, 111 victims have died and 3,166 victims have recovered. So that would seem to indicate a very low death rate in that nation. But in Italy, things are very different. Up to this point, there have been 59,138 confirmed cases. Of the cases that have been resolved, 5,476 victims have died and 7,024 have recovered. Needless to say, that would seem to indicate a very, very high death rate in Italy.
Nobody really knows why this is happening. Scientists in China claim that there is more than one strain of the coronavirus and that one is more deadly than the other. So it has been theorized that the strain hitting Italy and other European countries is different than the strain that is affecting South Korea.
Alternatively, there are some that believe that certain pain killers used in the western world greatly accelerate the multiplication of the virus, and this is something that I wrote about a few days ago.
But the truth is that we really don’t know for sure why death rates in different countries are so vastly different.
With that being said, let me share with you the latest numbers from the United States.
At this moment, there are 34,717 confirmed cases, but the vast majority of them will not be resolved for some time.
Of those cases that have reached a final resolution, 452 have died, and only 178 have recovered.
Over time, I expect the number that have recovered to eventually greatly surpass the number that have died, and there are a couple of reasons why I believe this.
For one, it can take many weeks to recover, but those that die can do so relatively quickly.
Secondly, expanded testing will ultimately reveal a lot more mild cases, and most of those mild cases will eventually recover.
Having said that, the numbers that the U.S. is reporting so far are nothing short of horrifying.
If most of the country eventually catches this virus, it looks like the death toll could be in the millions. And at this point, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is warning that 80 percent of the population of his state will eventually become infected…
NEW York Governor Andrew Cuomo has warned that 80% of New York state’s population could become infected with the coronavirus and said the crisis could last as long as nine months. Cuomo’s stark assessment came hours after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin warned that the lockdown, currently impacting 80 million people across the country, could last 12 weeks.
Over the past few days, victims in New York City have been dying at a rate of more than one person an hour, and we are being told that New York hospitals are “like a war zone” right now.
Sadly, this is just the beginning.
Over on the west coast, things have gotten so bad in L.A. County that they have mostly given up on testing people…
Los Angeles County health officials advised doctors to give up on testing patients in the hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak, instructing them to test patients only if a positive result could change how they would be treated. The guidance, sent by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health to doctors on Thursday, was prompted by a crush of patients and shortage of tests, and could make it difficult to ever know precisely how many people in L.A. County contracted the virus.
In other words, we will no longer really have any idea how bad the outbreak is in the Los Angeles area from now on.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And without identifying those that are infected and making sure they are isolated, all hope of containing the pandemic in California is completely dead.
Of course many are hoping that the current “shelter-in-place” order in California will help slow down the spread of COVID-19, but what will happen when it ends?
At this point, many Californians are already getting restless. In fact, Governor Gavin Newsom’s wife seems quite concerned that her family will “run out of toilet paper, paper towels, and Kleenex tomorrow”…
Jennifer Siebel Newsom, the actress wife of Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom, sent out a tweet on Wednesday complaining that “we run out of toilet paper, paper towels, and Kleenex tomorrow.” Her husband on Thursday ordered that all Californians stay in their homes except for certain essential excursions—on pain of being arrested.
The truth is that most Americans are simply not equipped to handle any sort of an extended crisis, and that appears to be what we are heading for.
On Sunday, the entire country was stunned when we learned that U.S. Senator Rand Paul has tested positive. Let us be in prayer for him and his entire family.
But pretty soon so many famous people will be testing positive that we won’t be able to keep track of them all. The attending physician of Congress believes that up to 150 million Americans will eventually become infected, and if that happens the virus will literally be everywhere.
That doesn’t mean that you should give up on trying to avoid COVID-19. If you doubt the deadliness of this virus, I would like for you to consider what a medical worker in Louisiana is saying…
“Reading about it in the news, I knew it was going to be bad, but we deal with the flu every year so I was thinking: Well, it’s probably not that much worse than the flu. But seeing patients with COVID-19 completely changed my perspective, and it’s a lot more frightening.” “I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.”
I have heard from so many people out there that believe that this coronavirus is about the same as the flu.
What a huge mistake.
Coronavirus victims have told us stories of being curled up in a fetal position crying for mercy as “blinding pain” roars through their bodies. As their lungs fill up with fluid, many report feeling like they can barely breathe for days on end.
The unlucky ones end up dead, but even many of the “lucky ones” end up with permanent lung damage.
Please do whatever you possibly can to boost your immune system now, because it looks like a large percentage of the population will be grappling with this virus at some point.
When New Jersey Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli was asked if she was worried about catching the virus, she warned that everyone will be infected eventually…
“Are you worried,” I ask, “that you’ll get the coronavirus eventually?” She smiles. “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are,” Persichilli says matter-of-factly. “I’m just waiting.”
I don’t believe that is true, and I believe that there are many Americans that will never catch the virus.
But without a doubt it is sweeping across America at a speed that is absolutely breathtaking, and the death toll is ahead of even the most pessimistic projections that were originally issued.
A great plague has hit America, and we are still only in the very early chapters.
This is the moment in our history when everything starts changing, and the days ahead are going to be exceedingly challenging.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-23--This Is Why People All Over America Are Scared To Death Of Being Tested For The Coronavirus…

How would you feel if you received a bill for more than $ 34,000 after being tested and treated for the coronavirus ?
This pandemic is showing the entire world that the U.S. healthcare system is deeply , deeply broken , and there is no way that we can continue to go on like this .
If coronavirus testing is quick , inexpensive and widely available all over the rest of the globe , why can ’ t that be the case here too ?
Democrats and Republicans have been fighting about fixing our healthcare system all the way back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t gotten the job done .
Now we have a system that is a complete and utter embarrassment , and it is about to be overwhelmed by the greatest public health crisis that any of us have ever seen .
Even under normal circumstances , most Americans are deathly afraid to go to the hospital because of what it will cost .
I have written about this numerous times before , but not even I would have imagined that getting tested and treated for coronavirus would cost more than $ 34,000… A woman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billed $ 34,927.43 after being tested and treated for the coronavirus , Time magazine reports .
When Danni Askini first came down with the symptoms of the virus — shortness of breath , a fever , a cough and migraines — she was told by a doctor to go to the emergency room .
There , she was told she had pneumonia and could go home .
She visited the emergency room two more times as her symptoms persisted and worsened before she was finally tested for the coronavirus .
Three days later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How in the world is it possible for a bill to get that high ?
As Danni pointed out , she now owes the hospital more than she paid for both of her college degrees .
Sadly , she is going to be far from alone .
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation , coronavirus victims all over America are going to get hit with extremely high medical bills… What this means is that if even a single member of your family catches the virus it could instantly wipe you out financially , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not have health insurance .
Congress has passed a bill which will now cover the cost of coronavirus testing , but the bad news is that “ it doesn ’ t do anything to address the cost of treatment ” … For those that catch the virus , and officials are warning that will eventually be most of us , treatment is going to cost far , far more than testing will .
You may think that you will just tough things out at home , but if this virus hits you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the hospital or you will die .
For a moment , I would like for you to consider what a medical worker in Louisiana is saying about the patients that he is treating… “ With our coronavirus patients , once they ’ re on ventilators , most need about the highest settings that we can do .
About 90 % oxygen , and 16 of PEEP , positive end-expiratory pressure , which keeps the lung inflated .
This is nearly as high as I ’ ve ever seen .
The level we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of options .
“ In my experience , this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who inhale caustic gas .
Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that .
I ’ ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly .
That was what really shocked me.
” Many coronavirus victims have described being in a state where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And this medical worker in Louisiana says that there is a really good reason for that , because the severe cases that he is treating are “ essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full ” … For the moment , there are still enough ventilators in the U.S. for everyone , but we are still in the very early chapters of this pandemic .
Over in Europe , many hospitals are already being completely overwhelmed .
In Italy , one doctor is reporting that patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being refused access to artificial respiratory machines… When things get bad enough , doctors are going to have to make choices about who lives and who dies here too .
It is hoped that the measures that are being taken all over the nation will start to slow down the spread of this virus .
But millions of Americans continue to go to work each day , and many of them simply can ’ t afford not to work .
In fact , it is being reported that many delivery drivers continue reporting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are clearly very sick… So the next time a delivery truck comes to your home , you may want to keep your distance .
We have never seen anything like this before .
The entire western world is shutting down simultaneously , and it is being estimated that nearly a billion people are now under lockdown orders… Needless to say , this is going to be absolutely devastating for the economy .
If you can believe it , Morgan Stanley is now projecting a 30 percent decline in U.S. GDP on an annualized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president of the St. Louis Fed is being even more pessimistic… It sure didn ’ t take much to plunge the U.S. into a horrifying economic depression .
Two months ago , everything seemed just fine to most people .
But now financial markets are crashing , workers are losing jobs at an unprecedented rate , and many of the businesses that are now being closed down will never open again .
Fear of the coronavirus has collapsed “ the everything bubble ” , and what we have experienced so far is just @ @

by Michael Snyder
How would you feel if you received a bill for more than $34,000 after being tested and treated for the coronavirus? This pandemic is showing the entire world that the U.S. healthcare system is deeply, deeply broken, and there is no way that we can continue to go on like this. If coronavirus testing is quick, inexpensive and widely available all over the rest of the globe, why can’t that be the case here too? Democrats and Republicans have been fighting about fixing our healthcare system all the way back to the 1990s and they haven’t gotten the job done. Now we have a system that is a complete and utter embarrassment, and it is about to be overwhelmed by the greatest public health crisis that any of us have ever seen.
Even under normal circumstances, most Americans are deathly afraid to go to the hospital because of what it will cost.
I have written about this numerous times before, but not even I would have imagined that getting tested and treated for coronavirus would cost more than $34,000…
A woman in the United States says she was billed $34,927.43 after being tested and treated for the coronavirus, Time magazine reports. When Danni Askini first came down with the symptoms of the virus — shortness of breath, a fever, a cough and migraines — she was told by a doctor to go to the emergency room. There, she was told she had pneumonia and could go home. She visited the emergency room two more times as her symptoms persisted and worsened before she was finally tested for the coronavirus. Three days later her results showed she had COVID-19.
How in the world is it possible for a bill to get that high?
As Danni pointed out, she now owes the hospital more than she paid for both of her college degrees.
So this story is about my experience with COVID and my final hospital bill: $34,927.23 – an amount that I will never be able to repay and more than I paid to get both my Bachelors and Masters degree. @realDonaldTrump @ewarren @AyannaPressley please help! t.co/pJApXMPzcW — Danni Askini (@danniaskini) March 20, 2020
Sadly, she is going to be far from alone. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, coronavirus victims all over America are going to get hit with extremely high medical bills…
A new analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that the average cost of COVID-19 treatment for someone with employer insurance—and without complications—would be about $9,763. Someone whose treatment has complications may see bills about double that: $20,292. (The researchers came up with those numbers by examining average costs of hospital admissions for people with pneumonia.)
What this means is that if even a single member of your family catches the virus it could instantly wipe you out financially, and this is especially true if you do not have health insurance.
Congress has passed a bill which will now cover the cost of coronavirus testing, but the bad news is that “it doesn’t do anything to address the cost of treatment”…
Public health experts predict that tens of thousands and possibly millions of people across the United States will likely need to be hospitalized for COVID-19 in the foreseeable future. And Congress has yet to address the problem. On March 18, it passed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which covers testing costs going forward, but it doesn’t do anything to address the cost of treatment.
For those that catch the virus, and officials are warning that will eventually be most of us, treatment is going to cost far, far more than testing will.
You may think that you will just tough things out at home, but if this virus hits you hard enough you will either go to the hospital or you will die.
For a moment, I would like for you to consider what a medical worker in Louisiana is saying about the patients that he is treating…
“With our coronavirus patients, once they’re on ventilators, most need about the highest settings that we can do. About 90% oxygen, and 16 of PEEP, positive end-expiratory pressure, which keeps the lung inflated. This is nearly as high as I’ve ever seen. The level we’re at means we are running out of options. “In my experience, this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who inhale caustic gas. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly. That was what really shocked me.”
Many coronavirus victims have described being in a state where they constantly feel like they are drowning.
And this medical worker in Louisiana says that there is a really good reason for that, because the severe cases that he is treating are “essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full”…
“When someone has an infection, I’m used to seeing the normal colors you’d associate with it: greens and yellows. The coronavirus patients with ARDS have been having a lot of secretions that are actually pink because they’re filled with blood cells that are leaking into their airways. They are essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full. So we’re constantly having to suction out the secretions every time we go into their rooms.”
For the moment, there are still enough ventilators in the U.S. for everyone, but we are still in the very early chapters of this pandemic.
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Over in Europe, many hospitals are already being completely overwhelmed. In Italy, one doctor is reporting that patients over the age of 60 are now being refused access to artificial respiratory machines…
Peleg said that, from what he sees and hears in the hospital, the instructions are not to offer access to artificial respiratory machines to patients over 60 as such machines are limited in number.
When things get bad enough, doctors are going to have to make choices about who lives and who dies here too.
It is hoped that the measures that are being taken all over the nation will start to slow down the spread of this virus.
But millions of Americans continue to go to work each day, and many of them simply can’t afford not to work.
In fact, it is being reported that many delivery drivers continue reporting for work each day even though they are clearly very sick…
An increasing number of the workers sorting those boxes, loading them into trucks and then transporting and delivering them around the country have fallen sick. They have coughs, sore throats, aches and fevers — symptoms consistent with the coronavirus. Yet they are still reporting for their shifts in crowded shipping facilities and warehouses and truck depots, fearful of what will happen if they don’t.
So the next time a delivery truck comes to your home, you may want to keep your distance.
We have never seen anything like this before. The entire western world is shutting down simultaneously, and it is being estimated that nearly a billion people are now under lockdown orders…
Close to one billion people worldwide were confined to their homes on Saturday as the global coronavirus death toll shot past 11,000 and US states rolled out lockdown measures already imposed across swathes of Europe. The pandemic has completely upended lives across the planet, restricting movement, shutting schools and forcing millions to work from home.
Needless to say, this is going to be absolutely devastating for the economy.
If you can believe it, Morgan Stanley is now projecting a 30 percent decline in U.S. GDP on an annualized basis during the second quarter…
We now see 1Q GDP dropping by 2.4% as economic activity has come to a near standstill in March, followed by a record-breaking drop of 30.1% in 2Q. We estimate that March will also mark the first drop in nonfarm payrolls, down 700k. We expect a record-high unemployment rate, averaging 12.8% in 2Q. We assume sharp declines in areas of consumer discretionary spending like travel, dining out, other services and motor vehicle spending among others. This will leave a large hole in consumer spending in 2Q, when we expect real personal consumption expenditures to contract at a 31% annualized pace.
And the president of the St. Louis Fed is being even more pessimistic…
In an interview with Bloomberg, the president of the St. Louis Fed, predicted that U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, coupled with an unprecedented 50% drop in US GDP. That would be an outcome worse not only than every prior war the US has (officially) waged, but more than twice as dire as the worst days of the Great Depression.
It sure didn’t take much to plunge the U.S. into a horrifying economic depression.
Two months ago, everything seemed just fine to most people.
But now financial markets are crashing, workers are losing jobs at an unprecedented rate, and many of the businesses that are now being closed down will never open again.
Fear of the coronavirus has collapsed “the everything bubble”, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Helicopter Money: Short-Term Relief Won’t Cure our Financial Disease

The collateral supporting the global mountain of debt is crumbling as speculative bubbles deflate .
A great many freebies are being tossed in the Helicopter Money basket .
That households experiencing declines in income need immediate support is obvious , as is the need to throw credit lifelines to small businesses .
But beyond those essentials , the open-ended nature of Helicopter Money has unleashed a frenzy of political favors and giveaways that have little to do with helping households and everything to do with rewarding favored cronies , cartels and interest groups .
As Gordon Long and I explain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Helicopter Money won ’ t cure the economy ’ s financial disease ; rather , it will act as a catalyst for longer-term disruption and decline .
None of the giveaways being discussed address the core causes of our systemic financial disease : — Erosion of real-world collateral supporting the ever-growing mountains of debt and leverage — Diminishing returns on monetary stimulus ( Federal Reserve financial cocaine no longer generates euphoria ) — The use of debt to keep up with the soaring costs of essentials ( rent , healthcare .
childcare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and services ( vacations ) The stability of the entire system is increasingly fragile and brittle .
The abuse of money-printing–creating currency to benefit bloated , inefficient , parasitic , predatory institutions , cartels and monopolies–is further eroding already-decaying confidence in monetary and fiscal authorities and policies .
The collateral supporting the global mountain of debt is crumbling as speculative bubbles deflate .
What happens to margin debt when the $ 300 stock falls to $ 100 ?
What happens to the $ 1 million mortgage when the decaying bungalow ’ s value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 400,000 ?
The inevitable result of creating currency is excess of the creation of goods and services is a decline in purchasing power which we experience as inflation / shrinkflation ( getting lower quality and less quantity even though the price has remained the same ) .
This loss of putchasing power has been masked by bogus statistical tricks and shrinkflation , but as the Helicopter Money trillions flood through the economy and global supply chain disruptions cause prices to rise , the usual bag of tricks will no longer be enough to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power .
Then there ’ s the psychological impact of the reverse wealth effect as households and enterprises see their net worth and income dropping .
The confident euphoria required to borrow and spend freely has evaporated and will not be returning , regardless of how much currency is created and distributed .
Gordon and I discuss these topics in this 37-minute video : If you missed our three-part series : The New Weapons of Conflict – Part II ( 28 minutes )

by Charles Hugh-Smith
The collateral supporting the global mountain of debt is crumbling as speculative bubbles deflate.
A great many freebies are being tossed in the Helicopter Money basket. That households experiencing declines in income need immediate support is obvious, as is the need to throw credit lifelines to small businesses. But beyond those essentials, the open-ended nature of Helicopter Money has unleashed a frenzy of political favors and giveaways that have little to do with helping households and everything to do with rewarding favored cronies, cartels and interest groups.
As Gordon Long and I explain, the short-term “pain relief” of Helicopter Money won’t cure the economy’s financial disease; rather, it will act as a catalyst for longer-term disruption and decline.
None of the giveaways being discussed address the core causes of our systemic financial disease:
— Erosion of real-world collateral supporting the ever-growing mountains of debt and leverage
— Diminishing returns on monetary stimulus (Federal Reserve financial cocaine no longer generates euphoria)
— Domino-like disruption of global supply chains and global demand
— Stagnating purchasing power of labor
— The use of debt to keep up with the soaring costs of essentials (rent, healthcare. childcare) and aspirational goods (iPhones) and services (vacations)
— Repricing of risk and risk assets
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The stability of the entire system is increasingly fragile and brittle. The abuse of money-printing–creating currency to benefit bloated, inefficient, parasitic, predatory institutions, cartels and monopolies–is further eroding already-decaying confidence in monetary and fiscal authorities and policies.
The collateral supporting the global mountain of debt is crumbling as speculative bubbles deflate. What happens to margin debt when the $300 stock falls to $100? What happens to the $1 million mortgage when the decaying bungalow’s value falls from $1.2 million to $400,000?
The inevitable result of creating currency is excess of the creation of goods and services is a decline in purchasing power which we experience as inflation / shrinkflation (getting lower quality and less quantity even though the price has remained the same).
This loss of putchasing power has been masked by bogus statistical tricks and shrinkflation, but as the Helicopter Money trillions flood through the economy and global supply chain disruptions cause prices to rise, the usual bag of tricks will no longer be enough to hide the higher costs and declining purchasing power.
Then there’s the psychological impact of the reverse wealth effect as households and enterprises see their net worth and income dropping. The confident euphoria required to borrow and spend freely has evaporated and will not be returning, regardless of how much currency is created and distributed.
Gordon and I discuss these topics in this 37-minute video:
If you missed our three-part series:
Emerging Era of Global Conflict – Part III (30 minutes)
The New Weapons of Conflict – Part II (28 minutes)
Coming Era of Political & Social Conflict – Part I (28 minutes)


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Will The Economy Recover Quickly?

Will The Economy Recover Quickly?

Small businesses drive the American economy as about 47 % of people are employed by them and they represent 45 % of GDP .
Small firms make the economy dynamic and give people the opportunity to climb up the economic ladder .
They inspire people and create community .
They are now on the brink of disaster because of the economic shutdown due to COVID-19 .
As you can see from the chart above , 21 % of small businesses would survive less than 1 month if sales stopped completely .
If this is accurate , nearly 21 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Grocery chains and other essential services will do okay , but the others are in dire straits .
Another 34 % of small firms will be in trouble if this shutdown lasts 3 months .
Let ’ s stick with the first segment though .
One thesis put out by investment banks is this will be a quick slowdown that is followed by a sharp recovery .
If 21 % of small firms fail , it won ’ t be a quick recovery .
This recession is much worse than a normal one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s not as if business is down 20-40 % because there are job losses and the economy is weak .
This time businesses can ’ t open .
That ’ s why businesses will fail much quicker than they usually do in recessions .
Some firms might decide to shut down because of the uncertainty .
They might not want to take the risk that the economy won ’ t open for an undefined period of time .
People are scared .
They might want to use the money hemorrhaged by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ family ’ s necessities .
It sounds hard to give up on a business that has been going for years just because of a short term disruption , but no one even thought such a shutdown was possible a few months ago .
The level of uncertainty has been amplified to unprecedented levels .
The chart below is from a 2016 JP Morgan presentation on small businesses .
The information is more important now than ever .
The firm sampled 597,000 small businesses .
As you can see from the chart below , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 13 days of cash buffers in reserves .
This economic shutdown will last longer than 13 days .
These firms are in deep trouble .
The median is 27 days of cash reserves which might be around how long this shutdown lasts if we are lucky .
Restaurants are in disaster mode .
They only have 16 days of cash reserves .
According to Open Table on March 19th , restaurant bookings were down 98 % .
It ’ s tough to plan for a 98 % decline in bookings .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t see it coming a few weeks prior .
Small restaurants employed almost 7 million people in 2013 .
Small retailers employed almost 5.5 million .
Retail is in a similar cash position as these firms have 19 days of cash .
These firms are losing out to Wal-Mart and Amazon as Wal-Mart stock just hit a 52-week high and Amazon just hired 100,000 workers .
Many analysts think Amazon will keep most of the market share it gains in this recession .
If you ’ re curious how much of a bailout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daily cash balance of small firms is $ 12,100 and it ’ s $ 16,000 for restaurants .
Small firms in New York have 28 day cash buffers .
New York state just shut down all non-essential services .
Goldman Sachs did a survey on how small firms are coping with COVID-19 .
51 % said their business will only be able to continue operating for 0-3 months .
75 % of these 1,500+ small firms said COVID-19 caused them to have fewer sales .
Only 13 % are confident about their contingency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Small firms don ’ t plan to be shut down .
The Most Negative Prediction On Wall Street Estimates for 2020 economic growth are widespread and keep changing because negative news keeps coming out and because investment banks are very uncertain about the future .
The estimates for Q2 quarter over quarter annualized GDP growth range from -12 % to -24 % .
Goldman Sachs has the most negative estimates on Wall Street .
( UPDATE : Morgan Stanley is predicting -30.1 % Q2 GDP growth & 12.8 % unemployment ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ below , Goldman sees -6 % growth in Q1 , -24 % growth in Q2 , 12 % growth in Q3 , and 10 % growth in Q4 .
It sees an annual average of -3.8 % growth and the unemployment rate peaking at 9 % .
Goldman sees growth being the worst in April at -10 % .
If investors thought growth would improve in May , they ’ d probably be buying stocks .
The fact that they are selling them shows how uncertain this prediction is .
Goldman Sachs sees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in at $ 110 .
In our most viral tweet of the year , we stated that the S & P 500 could fall 28 % to 1,650 if the S & P 500 had a 15 PE on $ 110 in earnings .
Some replied that investors would throw out this period ’ s results .
That ’ s fair , but recognize that the decline in earnings will push stocks lower because buybacks are being pulled back , dividends are being cut , and shares will be issued .
McDonald ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buyback and Boeing cut its dividend .
The goal of this insight is to come up with what we view could be a reasonable worst case scenario for stocks .
The good news is Goldman sees 2021 S & P 500 EPS rising back to $ 170 .
With a 15 PE multiple , that puts the S & P 500 at 2,550 .
Small businesses are facing an apocalypse .
You might be surprised to find out that being shut down for just a few weeks is enough to put thousands of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 21 % of small firms go bust and they represent 45 % of the economy , that ’ s wiping away 9.45 % of the economy in a few weeks .
They won ’ t come back soon .
It ’ s not easy to have your small business fail .
It will be tougher to compete with Amazon and Wal-Mart after the impact of COVID-19 is over ( compared to before it shut down the economy ) .
The economy will recover after the shutdown ends , but it might become less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these small firms won ’ t come back .

by UPFINA
Small businesses drive the American economy as about 47% of people are employed by them and they represent 45% of GDP. Small firms make the economy dynamic and give people the opportunity to climb up the economic ladder. They inspire people and create community. They are now on the brink of disaster because of the economic shutdown due to COVID-19.
55% of small businesses would fold if sales stopped completely for 1-3 months. Small business accounts for 47% of US employment and 45% of GDP. 🚩 pic.twitter.com/EZPtdYoBBV — Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) March 20, 2020
As you can see from the chart above, 21% of small businesses would survive less than 1 month if sales stopped completely. If this is accurate, nearly 21% of small businesses are about to fail. Grocery chains and other essential services will do okay, but the others are in dire straits. Another 34% of small firms will be in trouble if this shutdown lasts 3 months. Let’s stick with the first segment though. One thesis put out by investment banks is this will be a quick slowdown that is followed by a sharp recovery. If 21% of small firms fail, it won’t be a quick recovery.
This recession is much worse than a normal one because business is being completely shuttered. It’s not as if business is down 20-40% because there are job losses and the economy is weak. This time businesses can’t open. That’s why businesses will fail much quicker than they usually do in recessions. Some firms might decide to shut down because of the uncertainty. They might not want to take the risk that the economy won’t open for an undefined period of time. People are scared. They might want to use the money hemorrhaged by their small business to spend on their family’s necessities. It sounds hard to give up on a business that has been going for years just because of a short term disruption, but no one even thought such a shutdown was possible a few months ago. The level of uncertainty has been amplified to unprecedented levels.
Restaurants Are In Dire Straits
The chart below is from a 2016 JP Morgan presentation on small businesses. The information is more important now than ever. The firm sampled 597,000 small businesses. As you can see from the chart below, 25% of small firms hold less than 13 days of cash buffers in reserves.
Analysis from JPMorgan Chase on how much of a cash buffer the median small business has. The average small business has a cash buffer of 27 days. The average restaurant has 16 days. pic.twitter.com/0S3etWqIc4 — Austen Allred (@Austen) March 21, 2020
This economic shutdown will last longer than 13 days. These firms are in deep trouble. The median is 27 days of cash reserves which might be around how long this shutdown lasts if we are lucky.
Restaurants are in disaster mode. They only have 16 days of cash reserves. According to Open Table on March 19th, restaurant bookings were down 98%. It’s tough to plan for a 98% decline in bookings. It’s impossible when you didn’t see it coming a few weeks prior. Small restaurants employed almost 7 million people in 2013. Small retailers employed almost 5.5 million. Retail is in a similar cash position as these firms have 19 days of cash. These firms are losing out to Wal-Mart and Amazon as Wal-Mart stock just hit a 52-week high and Amazon just hired 100,000 workers. Many analysts think Amazon will keep most of the market share it gains in this recession. If you’re curious how much of a bailout small firms need, the median average daily cash balance of small firms is $12,100 and it’s $16,000 for restaurants. Small firms in New York have 28 day cash buffers. New York state just shut down all non-essential services.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Goldman Sachs did a survey on how small firms are coping with COVID-19. 51% said their business will only be able to continue operating for 0-3 months. 75% of these 1,500+ small firms said COVID-19 caused them to have fewer sales. Only 13% are confident about their contingency plan to meet their business’ needs. Small firms don’t plan to be shut down.
The Most Negative Prediction On Wall Street
Estimates for 2020 economic growth are widespread and keep changing because negative news keeps coming out and because investment banks are very uncertain about the future. The estimates for Q2 quarter over quarter annualized GDP growth range from -12% to -24%. Goldman Sachs has the most negative estimates on Wall Street. (UPDATE: Morgan Stanley is predicting -30.1% Q2 GDP growth & 12.8% unemployment).
As you can see from the chart below, Goldman sees -6% growth in Q1, -24% growth in Q2, 12% growth in Q3, and 10% growth in Q4. It sees an annual average of -3.8% growth and the unemployment rate peaking at 9%.
Goldman sees growth being the worst in April at -10%. If investors thought growth would improve in May, they’d probably be buying stocks. The fact that they are selling them shows how uncertain this prediction is.
Just $110 In Earnings
Goldman Sachs sees 2020 S&P 500 EPS coming in at $110. In our most viral tweet of the year, we stated that the S&P 500 could fall 28% to 1,650 if the S&P 500 had a 15 PE on $110 in earnings. Some replied that investors would throw out this period’s results. That’s fair, but recognize that the decline in earnings will push stocks lower because buybacks are being pulled back, dividends are being cut, and shares will be issued. McDonald’s recently suspended its $15 billion buyback and Boeing cut its dividend. The goal of this insight is to come up with what we view could be a reasonable worst case scenario for stocks.
Goldman goes nuts: cutting estimates for the third time in a month and now expecting a decline of 33% to $110. Consensus still "napping" @ $168. P/E obviously rockets…thats a huge hair-cut. On a quarterly basis, year/year EPS growth will equal -15%, -123%, -21%, and +27%(ugh) pic.twitter.com/omnZ6vb8Qp — PIRATE BIGGS (@Saburgs) March 22, 2020
The good news is Goldman sees 2021 S&P 500 EPS rising back to $170. With a 15 PE multiple, that puts the S&P 500 at 2,550.
Conclusion
Small businesses are facing an apocalypse. You might be surprised to find out that being shut down for just a few weeks is enough to put thousands of small firms out of business. If 21% of small firms go bust and they represent 45% of the economy, that’s wiping away 9.45% of the economy in a few weeks. They won’t come back soon. It’s not easy to have your small business fail. It will be tougher to compete with Amazon and Wal-Mart after the impact of COVID-19 is over (compared to before it shut down the economy). The economy will recover after the shutdown ends, but it might become less dynamic in the long term. Many of these small firms won’t come back.