investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Dude turns 100k into $1.1 million on single insider trade

Just wanted to make you guys aware of the shit that goes on daily and the SEC does nothing about @ @ @ @ @ the closing bell , a player purchased 1,000 call contracts at the $ 305 strike @ @ @ @ @ a total premium of about 100k on LULU .
Shortly after the close LULU announced @ @ @ @ @ MIRROR .
LULU was up 3 % after-hours .
How does this make you feel @ @ @ @ @ !
EDIT : Lets not forget senator Kelly Loeffler sold $ 18 million worth of @ @ @ @ @ for senators that the Coronavirus had become a pandemic , the SEC cleared her of @ @ @ @ @ Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment @ @ @ @ @ in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by bowlis
Just wanted to make you guys aware of the shit that goes on daily and the SEC does nothing about.
Yesterday, minutes before the closing bell, a player purchased 1,000 call contracts at the $305 strike for July 2nd expiration and a total premium of about 100k on LULU. Shortly after the close LULU announced they are acquiring fitness startup MIRROR. LULU was up 3% after-hours.
old.reddit.com/r/options/comments/hi841c/unusual_options_activity_today_in_w_wayfair_and/
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How does this make you feel? The rich get richer!
EDIT: Lets not forget senator Kelly Loeffler sold $18 million worth of stock after a private hearing for senators that the Coronavirus had become a pandemic, the SEC cleared her of any wrong doing. www.politico.com/news/2020/06/16/senate-ethics-committee-drops-probe-loeffler-stock-trades-323795
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Did anyone actually read the Dodd stress test on the banks?

Am i the only one thats noticing just how f*cked GS and HSBC are under severe conditions in supplementary leverage @ @ @ @ @ more whack now , vs 7 days ago , with the latest changes in HK @ @ @ @ @ to both continue paying dividends ?
I made a mistake in my first pass at @ @ @ @ @ is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the @ @ @ @ @ Do you own due diligence .

by TrumpHasASmallPnis
Table 4.A. Capital ratios actual vs projected
www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2020-dfast-results-20200625.pdf
Am i the only one thats noticing just how f*cked GS and HSBC are under severe conditions in supplementary leverage ratio?
Supplementary leverage ratio = regulatory capital / average assets+off balance sheet exposures.
Isnt this even more whack now, vs 7 days ago, with the latest changes in HK?
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And they are going to both continue paying dividends?
UPDATE:
I made a mistake in my first pass at assessment
www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/01/hsbc-cancels-remaining-2020-dividends.aspx0
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Dow notches best quarter since 1987, a rebound helped by low interest rates and government stimulus

Dow notches best quarter since 1987, a rebound helped by low interest rates and government stimulus amid COVID-19

Dow Jones industrial average posted its strongest quarter since 1987 after surging 17.8 % in the past three months .
@ @ @ @ @ nearly 20 % in the second quarter , its best quarterly gain since 1998 and @ @ @ @ @ 30.6 % in the second quarter , its best such period since 1999 .

Dow Jones industrial average posted its strongest quarter since 1987 after surging 17.8% in the past three months. S&P 500 soared nearly 20% in the second quarter, its best quarterly gain since 1998 and finally, Nasdaq Composite rallied 30.6% in the second quarter, its best such period since 1999.
www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/30/dow-stocks-track-best-quarter-decades/3284359001/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Tuesday is for the bulls

Tuesday is for the bulls

I recently read a DD where some dude wrote an essay on how you can play the SPY on FED @ @ @ @ @ and make money almost every time… For the gamblers out there ; a repo agreement @ @ @ @ @ the FED gives banks to create liquidity and support MM .
The FED is obligated @ @ @ @ @ of overnight and term repos .
Using the schedule , you can play the SPY @ @ @ @ @ before .
Holding your shares for 24-hours and selling them right before market close the @ @ @ @ @ ) .
This only seems to work with the “ Term ” repos which usually @ @ @ @ @ .
I put together a chart to show how successful this strategy has been .
@ @ @ @ @ July 7th ( the next Term repo day ) … .
SPY 330 C 07/17 @ @ @ @ @ only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information @ @ @ @ @ you own due diligence .

by Yolo-Call-Options
I recently read a DD where some dude wrote an essay on how you can play the SPY on FED repo days (Tuesdays) and make money almost every time… For the gamblers out there; a repo agreement is a short-term loan that the FED gives banks to create liquidity and support MM. The FED is obligated to release its monthly schedule of overnight and term repos.
Fed Repo Monthly Schedule
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Using the schedule, you can play the SPY by purchasing shares the day before. Holding your shares for 24-hours and selling them right before market close the next day (Repo Day). This only seems to work with the “Term” repos which usually start operating on Tuesday mornings. I put together a chart to show how successful this strategy has been.
TL:DR: On July 7th (the next Term repo day)…. SPY 330 C 07/17
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Tesla joining the S&P 500

Tesla joining the S&P 500

One of the biggest S & P 500 additions in history was when Berkshire Hathaway , with a $ 160b market cap , was added in early 2010 .
The inclusion was a surprise , and the headlines were bombastic .
To put this in perspective : in 2010 about $ 3.5t in assets were benchmarked to the S & P 500 .
Today this is $ 11.2t , as the index rose from ~1,100 to today ’ s ~3,000 levels .
When BRK.B was added , with an about 1.1 % weight in the index , the short term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as it rose from ~ $ 65 to a peak of ~ $ 83 , by +27 % .
This was while the S & P 500 dropped by around -6 % due to the Euro debt crisis .
BRK.B also rose despite the float being diluted by about 6 % , as new shares were issued .
The undiluted appreciation of BRK.B , relative to the benchmark S & P 500 , was probably closer to +35 % -40 % .
Berkshire Hathaway also missed many opportunities in 2009 and by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fund .
Now let ’ s compare this with Tesla .
TSLA ’ s current valuation is ~ $ 185b and 80 % float , would make it about ~0.7 % of the S & P 500 index .
But while Tesla ’ s index weight of $ 185b*80 % = $ 148b is comparable to BRK.B ’ s $ 170b*67 % = $ 107b , the amount of global assets potentially carrying TSLA as a benchmark component are not : So the magnitude of possible anti-dilutive portfolio allocations to TSLA – a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been performed for the largest players – is 2x larger for the TSLA S & P 500 inclusion event than for the Berkshire Hathaway event .
But there are other differences as well : the inclusion of BRK.B was ( presumably… ) a surprise – and it happened against the backdrop of a bearish market episode ( the Euro debt crisis ) when the S & P 500 dropped about 10 % from its recent peaks .
If Tesla manages to post marginal profits in Q2 , then its S & P 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are certainly aware of the possibility – and against a reasonably bullish market backdrop with a dovish Fed and strong stimulus measures in place .
The million dollar question is , how many of the passive and active funds benchmarked against the S & P 500 , in particular smaller and medium size funds , are prepared for the inclusion of Tesla ?
Tesla FUD was pervasive for almost a decade and was still formidable this year .
Many of the big funds , such as BlackRock , are currently overweight in TSLA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investment , or a possible intent to sell to market participants who are under pressure to take an equal-weight stake in Tesla .
If these institutional investors overestimated the appetite of the market for TSLA shares , or if there ’ s a broader bearish market , then we could see a ‘ sell the news ’ selloff after S & P 500 inclusion .
OTOH , TSLA ’ s ~10 % short interest is much higher than BRK.B ever was .
If institutional Tesla shareholders currently overweight in TSLA control the free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 inclusion , then I ’ d expect them to allow the price to run up & squeeze a few more shorts , so they can collect a well deserved premium .
😉 Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by go872
~@Truth_Tesla
One of the biggest S&P 500 additions in history was when Berkshire Hathaway, with a $160b market cap, was added in early 2010. The inclusion was a surprise, and the headlines were bombastic.
To put this in perspective: in 2010 about $3.5t in assets were benchmarked to the S&P 500. Today this is $11.2t, as the index rose from ~1,100 to today’s ~3,000 levels.
When BRK.B was added, with an about 1.1% weight in the index, the short term effects on the stock price was immediate, as it rose from ~$65 to a peak of ~$83, by +27%. This was while the S&P 500 dropped by around -6% due to the Euro debt crisis.

BRK.B also rose despite the float being diluted by about 6%, as new shares were issued. The undiluted appreciation of BRK.B, relative to the benchmark S&P 500, was probably closer to +35%-40%.
Berkshire Hathaway also missed many opportunities in 2009 and by early 2010 it was considered an under-performing fund. Now let’s compare this with Tesla. TSLA’s current valuation is ~$185b and 80% float, would make it about ~0.7% of the S&P 500 index.
But while Tesla’s index weight of $185b*80% = $148b is comparable to BRK.B’s $170b*67% = $107b, the amount of global assets potentially carrying TSLA as a benchmark component are not:
📷BRK.B: 1.1% of $3.5t = ~$38b
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📷TSLA: 0.7% of $11.2t = ~$78b
So the magnitude of possible anti-dilutive portfolio allocations to TSLA – a fair chunk of which have probably already been performed for the largest players – is 2x larger for the TSLA S&P 500 inclusion event than for the Berkshire Hathaway event.
But there are other differences as well: the inclusion of BRK.B was (presumably…) a surprise – and it happened against the backdrop of a bearish market episode (the Euro debt crisis) when the S&P 500 dropped about 10% from its recent peaks.
If Tesla manages to post marginal profits in Q2, then its S&P 500 inclusion would happen while big market participants are certainly aware of the possibility – and against a reasonably bullish market backdrop with a dovish Fed and strong stimulus measures in place.
The million dollar question is, how many of the passive and active funds benchmarked against the S&P 500, in particular smaller and medium size funds, are prepared for the inclusion of Tesla? Tesla FUD was pervasive for almost a decade and was still formidable this year.
Many of the big funds, such as BlackRock, are currently overweight in TSLA – which suggests either long term growth investment, or a possible intent to sell to market participants who are under pressure to take an equal-weight stake in Tesla.
If these institutional investors overestimated the appetite of the market for TSLA shares, or if there’s a broader bearish market, then we could see a ‘sell the news’ selloff after S&P 500 inclusion. OTOH, TSLA’s ~10% short interest is much higher than BRK.B ever was.
If institutional Tesla shareholders currently overweight in TSLA control the free float supply of TSLA shares after S&P 500 inclusion, then I’d expect them to allow the price to run up & squeeze a few more shorts, so they can collect a well deserved premium. 😉
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--De Blasio is slashing the NYPD budget by a billion dollars. Good luck, New York City.

De Blasio is slashing the NYPD budget by a billion dollars .
Good luck , New York City .
pic.twitter.com/XinVXX3E44

De Blasio is slashing the NYPD budget by a billion dollars. Good luck, New York City. pic.twitter.com/XinVXX3E44
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Gold & silver penny stocks are taking off!  Robinhood traders…   The party is just getting started.

Stocks only go up ?
Then have a look at precious metals miners .
The party is just getting started @ @

Stocks only go up?
Then have a look at precious metals miners.
Gold & silver penny stocks are taking off!
Robinhood traders…
The party is just getting started. pic.twitter.com/lOcC1Y8Kof
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--The New Normal: Extremes of Neofeudalism, Incompetence, Authoritarianism and Relocalization

The pendulum swung to an extreme of globalization , financialization , centralization and monopoly , all of which created extreme systemic fragility .
Here ’ s what to expect in the rapidly evolving New Normal : extremes become even more extreme as the status quo attempts to force compliance with its last-ditch schemes to preserve what was always unsustainable while painting a happy face on the stock market , the one thing they can push higher as the global economy unravels .
Mark , Jesse and I discuss this dynamic in Salon # 10 : Remember when Maximum Pessimism and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 54 minutes ) : realistic pessimism is lashed to the mast with the irrational exuberance of stock market soothsayers , central bank cheerleaders and the organs of propaganda ( Wall Street ) and control of the narratives ( social media and search monopolies ) .
Cognitive dissonance ?
Yes .
Schizophrenia ?
Sure .
Crazy-making ?
Undoubtedly .
So the default “ solution ” is petty Authoritarianism to ensure we only see approved narratives , that we focus on the happy-happy signal of the glorious stock market ( best rally ever ! )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ complaint , and so on .
And of course , buy , buy , buy and borrow , borrow , borrow , lest the flimsy house of cards collapse .
As I explain in my book Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform , the only possible output of central bank monetary stimulus is financialization , and the only possible output of financialization is unprecedented wealth and income inequality .
As Max Keiser , Stacy Herbert and I discuss in Fractals of Incompetence ( 15:30 ) , the problem with pushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every level , from school boards to the Federal Reserve .
Rather than solve problems , our institutions have devolved into mechanisms to protect clerisy / insiders from transparency and accountability .
In the New Normal , systemic incompetence isn ’ t going to magically transform into competence , it ’ s going to reach new extremes of incompetence and self-serving hubris .
My term for servitude via debt and taxes is neofeudalism , and neofeudalism is the default setting of the New Normal as the super-wealthy can buy even more of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve ’ s free money for financiers , leaving the peasantry the owners of debt rather than assets .
The only way to escape neofeudal servitude is to figure out some way to live on a fraction of what the conventional lifestyle requires , i.e .
radical frugality .
Radical frugality will also be a permanent part of the New Normal , either voluntary or imposed by circumstances .
The silver lining in all this is the potential to relocalize essential elements of our economy , a subject Richard and I discuss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
The pendulum swung to an extreme of globalization , financialization , centralization and monopoly , all of which created extreme systemic fragility .
In the New Normal , the pendulum will finally start moving away from globalization , financialization , centralization and monopoly to decentralized , relocalized economic activity , which is the core dynamic in doing more with less and regaining agency .
The New Normal has yet to fully impact the global financial system , which is still in the eye of the hurricane , magnificently confident that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most powerful force in the Universe .
The stock market ’ s hubris is begging the gods for retribution , and we may not have to wait too long for the karmic hammer to crush the hubris and the irrational exuberance , as Adam , Mike , John and I discuss in Three major risks the markets are not pricing in yet ( 39 minutes ) .
The winds are picking up , and the flimsy shacks of the Fed and Wall Street are no match for the real world .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
The pendulum swung to an extreme of globalization, financialization, centralization and monopoly, all of which created extreme systemic fragility.
Here’s what to expect in the rapidly evolving New Normal: extremes become even more extreme as the status quo attempts to force compliance with its last-ditch schemes to preserve what was always unsustainable while painting a happy face on the stock market, the one thing they can push higher as the global economy unravels.
Mark, Jesse and I discuss this dynamic in Salon #10: Remember when Maximum Pessimism and Irrational Exuberance were mutually exclusive? (54 minutes): realistic pessimism is lashed to the mast with the irrational exuberance of stock market soothsayers, central bank cheerleaders and the organs of propaganda (Wall Street) and control of the narratives (social media and search monopolies).
Cognitive dissonance? Yes. Schizophrenia? Sure. Crazy-making? Undoubtedly. So the default “solution” is petty Authoritarianism to ensure we only see approved narratives, that we focus on the happy-happy signal of the glorious stock market (best rally ever!), that we pay higher taxes without complaint, and so on.
And of course, buy, buy, buy and borrow, borrow, borrow, lest the flimsy house of cards collapse.
As I explain in my book Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform, the only possible output of central bank monetary stimulus is financialization, and the only possible output of financialization is unprecedented wealth and income inequality.
As Max Keiser, Stacy Herbert and I discuss in Fractals of Incompetence (15:30), the problem with pushing extremes is the system is incompetent at every level, from school boards to the Federal Reserve. Rather than solve problems, our institutions have devolved into mechanisms to protect clerisy / insiders from transparency and accountability.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the New Normal, systemic incompetence isn’t going to magically transform into competence, it’s going to reach new extremes of incompetence and self-serving hubris.
My term for servitude via debt and taxes is neofeudalism, and neofeudalism is the default setting of the New Normal as the super-wealthy can buy even more of the nation’s assets thanks to the Federal Reserve’s free money for financiers, leaving the peasantry the owners of debt rather than assets.
The only way to escape neofeudal servitude is to figure out some way to live on a fraction of what the conventional lifestyle requires, i.e. radical frugality. Radical frugality will also be a permanent part of the New Normal, either voluntary or imposed by circumstances.
The silver lining in all this is the potential to relocalize essential elements of our economy, a subject Richard and I discuss in The New Normal (37 minutes). The pendulum swung to an extreme of globalization, financialization, centralization and monopoly, all of which created extreme systemic fragility.
In the New Normal, the pendulum will finally start moving away from globalization, financialization, centralization and monopoly to decentralized, relocalized economic activity, which is the core dynamic in doing more with less and regaining agency.
The New Normal has yet to fully impact the global financial system, which is still in the eye of the hurricane, magnificently confident that the Federal Reserve’s money-printing is the most powerful force in the Universe. The stock market’s hubris is begging the gods for retribution, and we may not have to wait too long for the karmic hammer to crush the hubris and the irrational exuberance, as Adam, Mike, John and I discuss in Three major risks the markets are not pricing in yet (39 minutes).
The winds are picking up, and the flimsy shacks of the Fed and Wall Street are no match for the real world.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Central Banks DRIVING GOLD: They Would Prefer To Ignore It, Yet They’re NET BUYERS

( Silver Doctors Editors ) Many readers of Silver Doctors like to read the writing of Jim Rickards .
He ’ s out with a new article about gold .
Which can be found on the Daily Reckoning website .
Jim goes on to list some of the many ways this is done : Gold caused and prolonged the Great Depression .
( That ’ s false : Even Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke have written that the Great Depression was caused by the Fed .
During the Great Depression , base money supply could be 250 % of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money supply never exceeded 100 % of the gold value .
In other words , the Fed could have more than doubled the money supply even with a gold standard .
It failed to do so .
That ’ s a Fed failure not a gold failure ) .
Of interest to readers may be what Jim is getting from his models : Jim gets to the crux of the matter to conclude : Of note , some people look to the US Constitution and say that silver is money .
So arguably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he ’ s also referring to silver .

(Silver Doctors Editors) Many readers of Silver Doctors like to read the writing of Jim Rickards.
He’s out with a new article about gold.
Which can be found on the Daily Reckoning website.
Jim begins:
Gold as an asset class is confusing to most investors. Even sophisticated investors are accustomed to hearing gold ridiculed as a “shiny rock” and hearing serious gold analysts mocked as “gold bugs,” “gold nuts” or worse.
As a gold analyst, I grew used to this a long time ago. But, it’s still disconcerting when one realizes the extent to which gold is simply not taken seriously or is treated as a mere commodity no different than soy beans or wheat.
The reasons for this disparaging approach to gold are not difficult to discern. Economic elites and academic economists control the central banks. The central banks control what we now consider “money” (dollars, euros, yen and other major currencies).
Those who control the money supply can indirectly control economies and the destiny of nations simply by deciding when and how much to ease or tighten credit conditions, and when to favor (or disfavor) certain types of lending.
When you ease credit conditions in a difficult environment, you help favored institutions (mainly banks) to survive. If you tighten credit conditions in a difficult environment, you can more or less guarantee that certain companies, banks or even nations will fail.
This power is based on money and the money is controlled by central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve System. However, the money-based power depends on a monopoly on money creation.
As long as investors and institutions are forced into a dollar-based system, then control of the dollar equates to control of those institutions. The minute another form of money competes with the dollar (or euro, etc.) as a store of value and medium of exchange, then the control of the power elites is broken.
This is why the elites disparage and marginalize gold. It’s easy to show why gold is a better form of money, why it’s more reliable than central bank money for preserving wealth, and why it’s a threat to the money-monopoly that the elites depend upon to maintain power.
Not only is gold a superior form of money, it’s also not under the control of any central bank or group of individuals. Yes, miners control new output, but annual output is only about 1.8% of all the above-ground gold in the world.
The value of gold is determined not by new output, but by the above-ground supply, which is 190,000 metric tonnes. Most of that above-ground supply is either owned by central banks and finance ministries (about 34,000 metric tonnes) or is held privately either as jewelry (“wearable wealth”) or bullion (coins and bars).
The floating supply available for day-to-day trading and investment is only a small fraction of the total supply. Gold is valuable and is a powerful form of money, but it’s not under the control of any single institution or group of institutions.
Clearly gold is a threat to the central bank money monopoly. Gold cannot be made to disappear (it’s too valuable), and it would be almost impossible to confiscate (despite persistent rumors to that effect).
If gold is a threat to central bank money and cannot be made to disappear, then it must be discredited. It becomes important for central bankers and academic economists to construct a narrative that’s easily absorbed by everyday investors that says gold is not money.
Jim goes on to list some of the many ways this is done:
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There’s not enough gold in the world to support trade and commerce.(That’s false: there’s always enough gold, it’s just a question of price. The same amount of gold supports a larger amount of transactions when the price is raised).
Gold supply cannot expand fast enough to keep up with economic growth.(That’s false: It confuses the official supply with the total supply. Central banks can always expand the official supply by printing money and buying gold from private hands. That expands the money supply and supports economic expansion).
Gold causes financial panics and crashes.(That’s false: There were panics and crashes during the gold standard and panics and crashes since the gold standard ended. Panics and crashes are not caused or cured by gold. They are caused by a loss of confidence in banks, paper money or the economy. There is no correlation between gold and financial panic).
Gold caused and prolonged the Great Depression.(That’s false: Even Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke have written that the Great Depression was caused by the Fed. During the Great Depression, base money supply could be 250% of the market value of official gold. Actual money supply never exceeded 100% of the gold value. In other words, the Fed could have more than doubled the money supply even with a gold standard. It failed to do so. That’s a Fed failure not a gold failure).
You get the point. There’s a clever narrative about why gold is not money. But, the narrative is false. It’s simply the case that everyday citizens believe what the economists say (usually a bad idea) or don’t know enough economic history to refute the economists (and how could you know the history if they stopped teaching it fifty years ago).
The bottom line is that economists know that gold could be a perfectly usable form of money. The reason they don’t want it is because it dilutes their monopoly power over printed money and therefore reduces their political power over people and nations.
To marginalize gold, they created a phony narrative about why gold doesn’t work as money. Most people were too easily impressed by the narrative or simply didn’t know enough to challenge it. Therefore the narrative wins even if it is false.
If gold is viable as a form of money, what does gold’s recent price trading range combined with fundamental factors tell us about its investment prospects?
Of interest to readers may be what Jim is getting from his models:
Right now, my models are telling me that gold is poised to breakout of its recent narrow trading range.
As always in technical analysis, the term “breakout” can mean sharply higher or sharply lower prices. Using fundamental analysis, a breakout to sharply higher prices is the expected outcome. This may be the last opportunity to buy gold below $2,000 per ounce.
For the past three months, gold has been trading in a range between $1,685 per ounce and $1,790 per ounce (it’s trading at about $1,782 today). For most of those three months gold was trading in a fairly narrow band.
When trading a volatile asset narrows to that extent, it’s a sign that the asset is ready for a material technical breakout. The question is will gold breakout to the upside or downside?
To answer that question, we can turn to fundamental analysis. (Technical analysis is data rich and is useful for spotting patterns, but it has low predictive analytic power).
One of the most important fundamental factors forcing gold higher is shown in Chart 1 below. This shows central bank purchases of gold bullion from 2017 to 2020 (each year is shown as a separate line measured in metric tonnes on the left scale).
Chart 1 – Central Bank purchases of gold
(in metric tonnes) 2017 – 2020
Chart 1 shows significant purchases of gold with 2019 running ahead of 2017 and 2018 at about 500 metric tonnes.
The chart also shows over 150 metric tonnes of gold purchases through April 2020, which puts 2020 on track to show 450 metric tonnes purchased for the year if present trends hold.
Of course, the actual result could be higher or lower. Cumulative central bank purchases from January 2017 to April 2020 are approximately 2,050 metric tonnes.
In fact, central banks went from being net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010, and that net buying position has persisted ever since. The largest buyers are Russia and China, but significant purchases have also been made by Iran, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Vietnam.
Jim gets to the crux of the matter to conclude:
Central banks have a monopoly on central bank money. Gold is the competitor to central bank money and most central banks would prefer to ignore gold. Yet, central banks in the aggregate are net buyers of gold.
In effect, central banks are signaling through their actions that they are losing confidence in their own money and their money monopoly. They’re getting ready for the day when confidence in central bank money will collapse across the board. In that world, gold will be the only form of money anyone wants.
Central banks are voting with their printing presses in favor of gold. What are you waiting for?
Here’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to front run central banks and acquire your own gold at attractive prices before the curtain drops on paper money.
Of note, some people look to the US Constitution and say that silver is money.
So arguably, when Jim is referring to gold, he’s also referring to silver.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--AOC says proposed $1B budget cut to NYPD isn’t enough: ‘Defunding police means defunding police’ (So

AOC says proposed $1B budget cut to NYPD isn’t enough: ‘Defunding police means defunding police’ (Some Democrats argue the phrase shouldn’t be taken literally and represents police reforms)

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , D-N.Y. , weighed in Tuesday on the proposed New York City budget cuts to the police department she said don ’ t go far enough , saying “ defunding police means defunding police.
” “ Defunding police means defunding police .
It does not mean budget tricks or funny math .
It does not mean moving school police officers from the NYPD budget to the Department of Education ’ s budget so the exact same police remain in schools , ” the congresswoman said in a statement .
Establishment Democrats and progressives have debated over what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some argue the phrase shouldn ’ t be taken literally and just stands to represent police reforms .
“ It does not mean counting overtime cuts as cuts , even as NYPD ignores every attempt by City Council to curb overtime spending and overspends on overtime anyways , ” Ocasio-Cortez continued .
“ If these reports are accurate , then these proposed ‘ cuts ’ to the NYPD budget are a disingenuous illusion .
This is not a victory .
The fight to defund policing continues.
” The New York City Council @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal Tuesday to cut $ 1 billion from the NYPD ’ s $ 6 billion budget .

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., weighed in Tuesday on the proposed New York City budget cuts to the police department she said don’t go far enough, saying “defunding police means defunding police.”
“Defunding police means defunding police. It does not mean budget tricks or funny math. It does not mean moving school police officers from the NYPD budget to the Department of Education’s budget so the exact same police remain in schools,” the congresswoman said in a statement.
Inbox: @AOC weighs in quite critically on developing de Blasio-City Council NYPD budget deal > pic.twitter.com/QRZ3hvmBU6 — Ben Max (@TweetBenMax) June 30, 2020
Establishment Democrats and progressives have debated over what “defund the police” actually means. Some argue the phrase shouldn’t be taken literally and just stands to represent police reforms.
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“It does not mean counting overtime cuts as cuts, even as NYPD ignores every attempt by City Council to curb overtime spending and overspends on overtime anyways,” Ocasio-Cortez continued. “If these reports are accurate, then these proposed ‘cuts’ to the NYPD budget are a disingenuous illusion. This is not a victory. The fight to defund policing continues.”
The New York City Council and Mayor Bill de Blasio reached a deal Tuesday to cut $1 billion from the NYPD’s $6 billion budget.
www.foxnews.com/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-slams-1b-nypd-budget-cut-defunding-police-means-defunding-police


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Planned Depopulation, Do YOU even Get a Say?

I feel like cattle being herded .
Corral , Control , Cancel .
It seems to me pretty obvious that @ @ @ @ @ of the air are indeed insane demon filled political hacks posing as benevolent wise leaders @ @ @ @ @ ?
You love evil .
You worship the Republicans ?
You should worship only GOD @ @ @ @ @ efforts on your behalf .
Politics is the big business of Lie , Cheat , @ @ @ @ @ adding Depopulate .
Pick your poison .
You will end up just as dead .

www.who.int/immunization/immunization_agenda_2030/en/
Plan to vacinate world by 2030
I feel like cattle being herded. Corral, Control, Cancel. It seems to me pretty obvious that the powers of the princes of the air are indeed insane demon filled political hacks posing as benevolent wise leaders.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
You love the democrats? You love evil. You worship the Republicans? You should worship only GOD and thank Jesus for his efforts on your behalf. Politics is the big business of Lie, Cheat, & Steal and now is adding Depopulate. Pick your poison. You will end up just as dead.
Lie, Cheat, Steal, & Depopulate
Corral, Control, Cancel.
h/t We Who Watch


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--KENTUCKY: Murder Caught On Tape Inside Louisville Marxist Zone — SURPRISE — The Suspect Is A Protest

KENTUCKY: Murder Caught On Tape Inside Louisville Marxist Zone — SURPRISE — The Suspect Is A Protester Too

What we know about Steven Lopez , the suspect in the fatal Jefferson Square Park shooting LOUISVILLE , Ky. — @ @ @ @ @ ’ s month of protests has been accused of fatally shooting a photographer in Jefferson @ @ @ @ @ with another person .

CONTENT WARNING: This video of today’s shooting at Jefferson Square Park was pulled from the FB livestream of one of Louisville’s more vocal protesters. Absolutely horrifying to see. To my friends, coworkers and anybody else down there, please be vigilant. Please be safe. pic.twitter.com/AT8PiOIKrG — John Boyle (@JBernardBoyle) June 28, 2020
What we know about Steven Lopez, the suspect in the fatal Jefferson Square Park shooting
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A frequent participant in Louisville’s month of protests has been accused of fatally shooting a photographer in Jefferson Square Park after a dispute with another person.
www.courier-journal.com/story/news/crime/2020/06/28/louisville-breonna-taylor-protest-shooting-suspect-identified/3274385001/
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Gunman Opens Fire at Louisville Breonna Taylor Protest | NowThis
Breonna Taylor: Video captures shooting at park protest in Louisville, Kentucky
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--States ordered to fraudulently inflate new COVID-19 cases by 15 TIMES the actual rate! The 2nd wave

States ordered to fraudulently inflate new COVID-19 cases by 15 TIMES the actual rate! The 2nd wave is a HOAX!

“ Probable cases ” are being added to the official “ new cases ” count without ever having been tested @ @ @ @ @ 1 person tests positive , anyone that person has been in contact with is also @ @ @ @ @ even though they ’ ve never been tested !
There is in new cases , @ @ @ @ @ OFFICIAL CDC : Tested positive ?
Maybe you have CORONA .
Or… maybe just the @ @ @ @ @ Literally .
Don ’ t .
Know .

“Probable cases” are being added to the official “new cases” count without ever having been tested!
For example, if 1 person tests positive, anyone that person has been in contact with is also counted as a new case even though they’ve never been tested!
There is no spike in new cases, it’s a total HOAX !
WATCH:
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Federal Order Coincides With Massive Spike In News Cases Triggering National Panic
OFFICIAL CDC: Tested positive? Maybe you have CORONA. Or… maybe just the COMMON COLD. We. Literally. Don’t. Know.
h/t STAX


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--Roubini: ‘My prediction for a Great Depression is not about 2020, but the decade of the 2020s’

New York University ’ s Stern School of Business Professor of Economics & Roubini Macro Associates , LLC CEO Nouriel @ @ @ @ @ s Julia La Roche to break down his economic outlook and recovery amid the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ a professor at NYU ’ s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global @ @ @ @ @ for International Affairs in the White House ’ s Council of Economic Advisers during the @ @ @ @ @ worked for the International Monetary Fund , the US Federal Reserve , and the World @ @

Yahoo Finance, Released on 6/29/20
New York University’s Stern School of Business Professor of Economics & Roubini Macro Associates, LLC CEO Nouriel Roubini joins Yahoo Finance’s Julia La Roche to break down his economic outlook and recovery amid the coronavirus pandemic.
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Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--There Sure’s a Lot of Brain-Dead Misreporting About the Case-Shiller Home Price Index this Morning

No , it ’ s not yet a reflection of home prices during the Pandemic .
Be patient .
Reporters or spaghetti-code algos should have read the methodology before misleading their readers .
OK , dear reader , I feel like I ’ m fighting a one-man battle against media misinformation or something .
I didn ’ t want to descend into housing-data purgatory with you , and you didn ’ t want to either , but now we ’ re on the way after the horrifically brain-dead misreporting in the media about the Case Shiller Home Price Index this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by spaghetti-code algos , who didn ’ t bother to read the Case-Shiller methodology – or better yet , my past articles about the Case-Shiller Index .
These brain-dead reporters – or the spaghetti-algos that wrote the reports – went like this : National home prices rose 4.8 % year-over-year in April , during the peak of the lockdowns and despite the pandemic , showing how vibrant the housing market is .
But that is bull malarkey because the S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index doesn ’ t work that way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Case-Shiller Index – my favorite home price index because of the way it is structured – you have to be patient .
That ’ s its big drawback .
The Case-Shiller Index operates on a “ three-month rolling average ” basis .
And the price data is collected from public records .
So the release today , titled “ April , ” was the three-month moving average for deals whose data became available in the county deed recorders in February , March , and April .
There is also a time-lag between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data becomes available in the county deed recorders .
So what the Case-Shiller showed today were closings that had occurred in prior months and that became available in the county deed recorders in February , March , and April .
This included some of the deals that closed in January and excluded some of the deals that closed in April .
This is not a secret .
S & P publishes the methodology .
And reporters should have studied it before reporting bull-malarkey and misinforming their readers , many of whom paid a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Index uses the “ repeat sales method ” where it compares the sales price of a house that sold in the current month to the price of the house when it sold previously .
To make it into the index , a house has to have been sold at least twice .
This sales-pair method makes the index immune to changes in the mix of houses that sold , which is an advantage over the common median-price indices .
The index essentially tracks price changes for each house in the index separately over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the sales-pair data .
The index provider also applies some algorithms to iron out certain issues , such as improvements made to the house over time .
First signs of the pandemic .
It is in the number of “ sales pairs ” in April where we can see the first impact of the pandemic .
I will use the sales pairs of houses in the index for the five-county San Francisco Bay Area ( counties of San Francisco , San Mateo , Alameda , Contra Costa , and Marin ) because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown before any other area in the US , on March 17 .
The Bay Area is the earliest where we can see the impact of the lockdown .
And even here , the impact of the lockdown only shows up in the April sales pairs data , and only in a much-reduced way .
The index used 2,970 sales pairs for April in the Bay Area .
Meaning , data points of 2,970 houses whose sales were made available in the public records in April , and which had been sold previously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count was down 24 % from April last year .
This is the first sign of the pandemic ’ s impact .
In March , the sales pair count was down only 2 % from a year ago , well within the normal year-over-year fluctuations of the sales pair count .
In other words , the lockdown that started on March 17 had not yet , or had only barely , impacted the public records data .
In February , the sales pair count was up 7.7 % year-over-year , also well within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The chart below shows those sales-pair counts by month for the five-county San Francisco Bay Area .
This is an indication of home sales volume , which is subject to strong seasonality .
The low month in terms of sales appearing in public records is always in February .
The high months are June and/or July .
This year , February was also the low point , and there was a small uptick in March , but April , when home sales volume normally begins to surge , was stunted , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared to April last year ( green arrow ) : And the pandemic ’ s impact was even smaller… April sales pairs , by being stunted , accounted for only 34 % of the total sales pairs in the three-month rolling average .
Last year , April accounted for 41 % of the rolling three-month count .
In prior years , April accounted for 39 % to 44 % of the three-month rolling average .
In other words , price changes in April were further watered down in the rolling three-month average by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So the Case-Shiller Index for “ April ” in the Bay Area , the first of the 20 city indices to reflect the pandemic , contains , roughly speaking , 80 % of pricing data from sales before the pandemic , and 20 % of price changes from sales during the pandemic .
The National Home Price Index , which was cited in the headlines this morning , was even less impacted by lockdowns and the pandemic than the San Francisco Bay Area index because all other markets in the 20-city index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So , what the national index told us today is nearly all based on home prices before the impact of the pandemic .
It will be another three months – the index to be released on September 29 – before every month in the National Case Shiller Index ’ s rolling three-month average fully reflects home prices of sales that closed since the beginning of the lockdowns .
Each month will get us a step closer .
And even then , it will take a while because house price data is sticky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

No, it’s not yet a reflection of home prices during the Pandemic. Be patient. Reporters or spaghetti-code algos should have read the methodology before misleading their readers.
OK, dear reader, I feel like I’m fighting a one-man battle against media misinformation or something. I didn’t want to descend into housing-data purgatory with you, and you didn’t want to either, but now we’re on the way after the horrifically brain-dead misreporting in the media about the Case Shiller Home Price Index this morning by lazy-ass reporters, or increasingly by spaghetti-code algos, who didn’t bother to read the Case-Shiller methodology – or better yet, my past articles about the Case-Shiller Index.
These brain-dead reporters – or the spaghetti-algos that wrote the reports – went like this: National home prices rose 4.8% year-over-year in April, during the peak of the lockdowns and despite the pandemic, showing how vibrant the housing market is.
But that is bull malarkey because the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index doesn’t work that way. It lags massively behind. With the Case-Shiller Index – my favorite home price index because of the way it is structured – you have to be patient. That’s its big drawback.
The Case-Shiller Index operates on a “three-month rolling average” basis. And the price data is collected from public records. So the release today, titled “April,” was the three-month moving average for deals whose data became available in the county deed recorders in February, March, and April.
There is also a time-lag between when a deal closes and when the data becomes available in the county deed recorders.
So what the Case-Shiller showed today were closings that had occurred in prior months and that became available in the county deed recorders in February, March, and April. This included some of the deals that closed in January and excluded some of the deals that closed in April.
This is not a secret. S&P publishes the methodology. And reporters should have studied it before reporting bull-malarkey and misinforming their readers, many of whom paid a subscription to be misinformed.
The Case-Shiller Index uses the “repeat sales method” where it compares the sales price of a house that sold in the current month to the price of the same house when it sold previously. To make it into the index, a house has to have been sold at least twice.
This sales-pair method makes the index immune to changes in the mix of houses that sold, which is an advantage over the common median-price indices. The index essentially tracks price changes for each house in the index separately over time and then builds an index out of the sales-pair data. The index provider also applies some algorithms to iron out certain issues, such as improvements made to the house over time.
First signs of the pandemic.
It is in the number of “sales pairs” in April where we can see the first impact of the pandemic. I will use the sales pairs of houses in the index for the five-county San Francisco Bay Area (counties of San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Marin) because it is this area that went into lockdown before any other area in the US, on March 17.
The Bay Area is the earliest where we can see the impact of the lockdown. And even here, the impact of the lockdown only shows up in the April sales pairs data, and only in a much-reduced way.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The index used 2,970 sales pairs for April in the Bay Area. Meaning, data points of 2,970 houses whose sales were made available in the public records in April, and which had been sold previously, entered into the index. That count was down 24% from April last year. This is the first sign of the pandemic’s impact.
In March, the sales pair count was down only 2% from a year ago, well within the normal year-over-year fluctuations of the sales pair count. In other words, the lockdown that started on March 17 had not yet, or had only barely, impacted the public records data.
In February, the sales pair count was up 7.7% year-over-year, also well within the normal fluctuations of sales pair counts.
The chart below shows those sales-pair counts by month for the five-county San Francisco Bay Area. This is an indication of home sales volume, which is subject to strong seasonality. The low month in terms of sales appearing in public records is always in February. The high months are June and/or July.
This year, February was also the low point, and there was a small uptick in March, but April, when home sales volume normally begins to surge, was stunted, which caused it to be down 24% compared to April last year (green arrow):
And the pandemic’s impact was even smaller…
April sales pairs, by being stunted, accounted for only 34% of the total sales pairs in the three-month rolling average. Last year, April accounted for 41% of the rolling three-month count. In prior years, April accounted for 39% to 44% of the three-month rolling average.
In other words, price changes in April were further watered down in the rolling three-month average by being seasonally under-represented in terms of volume.
So the Case-Shiller Index for “April” in the Bay Area, the first of the 20 city indices to reflect the pandemic, contains, roughly speaking, 80% of pricing data from sales before the pandemic, and 20% of price changes from sales during the pandemic.
The National Home Price Index, which was cited in the headlines this morning, was even less impacted by lockdowns and the pandemic than the San Francisco Bay Area index because all other markets in the 20-city index locked down later than the Bay Area.
So, what the national index told us today is nearly all based on home prices before the impact of the pandemic. It will be another three months – the index to be released on September 29 – before every month in the National Case Shiller Index’s rolling three-month average fully reflects home prices of sales that closed since the beginning of the lockdowns. Each month will get us a step closer. And even then, it will take a while because house price data is sticky and moves slowly. So be patient.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--One day after Reddit’s purge, the top thread on r/all is calling for the purge of ‘Trumpism’

These people are insane and will act out violently when Trump wins again .
Get ready now .

by WolfLeadingSheep
These people are insane and will act out violently when Trump wins again. Get ready now.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--The Indiana State Police comes out against Sen. Mike Braun’s efforts to reform qualified immunity af

The Indiana State Police comes out against Sen. Mike Braun’s efforts to reform qualified immunity after his contentious Tucker Carlson appearance last night.

I voted for this prick because Trump endorsed him , now feel like I voted for a damn Democrat !
@ @ @ @ @ RiNO POS and wash his stain off before it hits him !
The lesson from @ @ @ @ @ is NO one to represent us , Democrats hard left or Democrats lite =Rinos !

by saveMySpeech
I voted for this prick because Trump endorsed him, now feel like I voted for a damn Democrat!
Trump needs to disavow this RiNO POS and wash his stain off before it hits him!
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The lesson from last nights Tucker is There is NO one to represent us, Democrats hard left or Democrats lite =Rinos!
LN


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-01--The tests for Covid-19 can be positive for any antibodies that cause the common cold.

They are testing for the fucking common cold then using the results to inflate numbers .
If you have had @ @ @ @ @ , you might test positive .
Tell me again how there ’ s no agenda @ @ @ @ @ gloating about the new spike in cases .

by bgny
Straight from the CDC.
They are testing for the fucking common cold then using the results to inflate numbers. If you have had the sniffles in your life, you might test positive.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
CDC’s failed coronavirus tests were tainted with coronavirus, feds confirm
Tell me again how there’s no agenda here.
Hillary Clinton is gloating about the new spike in cases.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--Nearly 7 Million Households Could Face Eviction Without Financial Assistance

As many as 6.7 million rent-burdened households could face eviction once enhanced federal unemployment insurance expires at the end of July and eviction bans across the country lift , according to a new analysis from UrbanFootprint , a tech company that makes urban planning software .
“ This level of displacement would be unparalleled in U.S. history and carries the potential to destabilize communities for years to come , ” UrbanFootprint ’ s report reads .
The analysis used unemployment claims and the cost of housing , among other factors , to map out which states are most at risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York , Florida , Georgia and Texas top the list .
Without a swift recovery of the U.S. economy , additional federal aid is required to keep people at risk of eviction , who are disproportionately women and people of color , in their homes , according to the authors of the report and many other housing experts .
“ The path back to pre-Covid economic activity and employment levels is unpredictable at best , ” reads the report .
“ This leaves the fate of many renters and communities in the @ @ @

As many as 6.7 million rent-burdened households could face eviction once enhanced federal unemployment insurance expires at the end of July and eviction bans across the country lift, according to a new analysis from UrbanFootprint, a tech company that makes urban planning software.
“This level of displacement would be unparalleled in U.S. history and carries the potential to destabilize communities for years to come,” UrbanFootprint’s report reads.
The analysis used unemployment claims and the cost of housing, among other factors, to map out which states are most at risk of an eviction crisis. California, New York, Florida, Georgia and Texas top the list.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Without a swift recovery of the U.S. economy, additional federal aid is required to keep people at risk of eviction, who are disproportionately women and people of color, in their homes, according to the authors of the report and many other housing experts.
“The path back to pre-Covid economic activity and employment levels is unpredictable at best,” reads the report. “This leaves the fate of many renters and communities in the balance.”
www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/nearly-7-million-households-could-face-eviction-without-assistance.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--Stepping back from the daily noise of headlines it may serve useful to look at the big picture.

Onto the dog days of summer .
The first half of 2020 has been intense for all involved and the second half looks to be intense as well .
Stepping back from the daily noise of headlines it may serve useful to look at the big picture .
For now there is little doubt that the unprecedented interventions by the Fed continue to support equity markets on their journey toward the largest asset bubble inside of a recession ever .
Indeed all market down move events in June found the Fed immediately responding with announcements , from corporate bond buying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and announcing its corporate credit facility to be operational this week .
All of these actions produced rallies in markets following downside moves .
It remains my view that the Fed has created another asset bubble following the bubble they created with their repo operations in the Fall of 2019 .
Reminder : It was the Fed ’ s balance sheet expansion in Q4 2019 into Q1 2020 that led to the largest market cap to GDP expansion on record : 158 % in February before markets collapsed triggered by the Covid crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and historic interventions , market cap to GDP remains far beyond any levels we ’ ve ever seen during a recession , never mind the worst recession in our life times : And yes you have the Fed ’ s unprecedented and historically absurd interventions to thank for that : What ’ s it all mean ?
Firstly , let ’ s start with some basic history here and this history shows that the signals that were ignored in 2019 , namely the yield curve inversion as well as the declining participation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming .
Equal weight meaning the broader market lagged versus select leaders that concentrated market cap amongst each other , basically repeating the same patterns we ’ ve seen during the previous boom/bust cycles : In this sense markets virtually repeated the pattern we saw in 2006 leading to the 2007 top and then recession and collapse .
It was the Fed ’ s repo action disconnecting asset prices from the underlying pinnings of the economy that led me to issue a 1999 like warning late in 2019 and early in 2020 ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ghosts of 2000 ) .
Covid may have been the trigger but the underpinning were there and , like in 2000 , markets peaked in Q1 followed by a crash .
And now the big recovery rally in Q2 on the heels of Fed intervention which was also advertised in 1929 Redux .
I see no bears on Wall Street and the faith in the Fed is unfalsifiable , never mind that we remain at historic entirely incompatible valuations .
To believe in new highs or higher prices is to again believe that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GDP ratio north of 150 % when so far all of market history says otherwise .
I can ’ t say whether a new record market cap to GDP extension will happen or not , but from a historic perspective the risk/reward ratio says otherwise .
Indeed it was in June when market again broached the 150 % market cap to GDP ratio mark on June 8th and failed producing sizable down moves in markets , including 7 % down on $ SPX , 10 % down in small caps and 20 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets now is the largest we ’ ve ever seen .
Equal weight as shown in the chart above is below the 2018 lows when $ SPX was trading at 2350 and barely above the 2016 lows when $ SPX was trading at 2000-2100 .
Make no mistake : All is driven by tech and has been since the January 2018 highs : Without its dominating tech components even $ SPX would be down for the count .
Indeed reality is this : The broader markets hasn ’ t gone anywhere in 2.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow-off top in February and now has again reached levels of resistance in June and has struggled with them.j some bull market .
Requires trillions in tax cuts , Fed intervention and zero rates to go nowhere .
Congrats .
So the Fed has managed to produced the most aggressive counter rally in decades but it also took unprecedented actions which are unlikely to be repeated again unless the Fed goes towards negative rates .
It is in context of this incredible market range chop that perhaps history can offer some guidance .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the period of 1999-2002 : $ DJIA peaked in early 2000 while Nasdaq ran higher into March , then it was a massive counter rally to lower highs followed by more chop and rallies into September of 2000 .
Then more chop and new lows as the recession continued to persist and the excess was wrought out of tech .
A repeat of this pattern would suggest significant more corrections and rallies to come into the rest of the year with even new lows not being beyond the realm of possibility .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ratio again near 150 % we haven ’ t wrought out any excess , which just transferred it into a few tech companies and we do have lower highs on most indices save tech in context of massive range chop : While hope and optimism headlines continue to dominate the day to day action be very clear : Companies are downsizing , lay off announcements are daily headlines , and hiring freezes remain .
Yes companies are bringing furloughed workers back , but the US is far from a clean reopening as Covid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If there was a V in the offing we would see it in the banks and yields .
Hence I submit to you : We are in a period of great uncertainty and the notion that the global economy goes back to the same size and state as it was in February is a fantasy .
Incremental improvement from disastrous conditions yes , but an all clear and all back to normal ?
Far from it .
Rather what the big picture says is that the structural charts which predicted this recession @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and weakening participation were absolutely on the money .
And they are sending a clear message : This is not over , there is no sudden quick V , and if that is so , then there will be more challenges coming to the Fed ’ s asset price inflation operation .
Like in 2000 we ’ ve already been in a period of vast price ranges and chop .
As stated before the broader market has not gone anywhere for 2.5 years despite the continues shouting of buy buy buy .
Rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ base reality here is this : As long as the Fed remains in control corrections will be contained on some levels .
June demonstrated the Fed has little pain tolerance and they step in during every sell off .
So far I suppose it ’ s working as $ SPX managed to defend key support in June stands above the quarterly 5 EMA : The question of diminishing returns remains and the danger for bulls , who are keen to apparently buy the highest valuations inside a recession ever , is whether the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed does lose control history says markets have an appointment with a 100 % market cap GDP ratio or below and if that happens the Fed will have no choice but to go with negative rates and ask Congress to be allowed to buy stocks directly .
As many red lines have already been crossed , including the Fed buying $ AAPL bonds , buying stocks directly is only the last red line to cross .
While the Fed pretends to be concerned about moral hazard its actions clearly say otherwise .
From @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key levels offer opportunities to sell markets , dips into key levels of confluence support offer select long trading opportunities .
Like in 2000 the winners are not the stubborn ones , but the ones that navigate the wide price range chop in both directions .
I suppose this is another way of saying : Buy the dips and sell the rips while maintaining a healthy sense of skepticism and utmost flexibility for that ’ s what seeing big picture is telling us and it has yet to lead us astray .
All @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should not be taken as investment or trading advice .
Any investments , trades , and/or speculations made in light of the ideas , opinions , and/or forecasts , expressed or implied herein , are committed at your own risk , financial or otherwise .
For further details please refer to the disclaimer .

by northmantrader
Onto the dog days of summer. The first half of 2020 has been intense for all involved and the second half looks to be intense as well. Stepping back from the daily noise of headlines it may serve useful to look at the big picture.
For now there is little doubt that the unprecedented interventions by the Fed continue to support equity markets on their journey toward the largest asset bubble inside of a recession ever. Indeed all market down move events in June found the Fed immediately responding with announcements, from corporate bond buying, to loosening the Volcker rule, and announcing its corporate credit facility to be operational this week. All of these actions produced rallies in markets following downside moves. It remains my view that the Fed has created another asset bubble following the bubble they created with their repo operations in the Fall of 2019.
Reminder: It was the Fed’s balance sheet expansion in Q4 2019 into Q1 2020 that led to the largest market cap to GDP expansion on record: 158% in February before markets collapsed triggered by the Covid crisis.
Now, following even more aggressive and historic interventions, market cap to GDP remains far beyond any levels we’ve ever seen during a recession, never mind the worst recession in our life times:
And yes you have the Fed’s unprecedented and historically absurd interventions to thank for that:
What’s it all mean?
Firstly, let’s start with some basic history here and this history shows that the signals that were ignored in 2019, namely the yield curve inversion as well as the declining participation of equal weight, indeed foresaw a recession coming. Equal weight meaning the broader market lagged versus select leaders that concentrated market cap amongst each other, basically repeating the same patterns we’ve seen during the previous boom/bust cycles:
In this sense markets virtually repeated the pattern we saw in 2006 leading to the 2007 top and then recession and collapse.
It was the Fed’s repo action disconnecting asset prices from the underlying pinnings of the economy that led me to issue a 1999 like warning late in 2019 and early in 2020 (Party like it’s 1999, Ghosts of 2000).
Covid may have been the trigger but the underpinning were there and, like in 2000, markets peaked in Q1 followed by a crash. And now the big recovery rally in Q2 on the heels of Fed intervention which was also advertised in 1929 Redux.
I see no bears on Wall Street and the faith in the Fed is unfalsifiable, never mind that we remain at historic entirely incompatible valuations. To believe in new highs or higher prices is to again believe that markets can sustain a market cap to GDP ratio north of 150% when so far all of market history says otherwise.
I can’t say whether a new record market cap to GDP extension will happen or not, but from a historic perspective the risk/reward ratio says otherwise. Indeed it was in June when market again broached the 150% market cap to GDP ratio mark on June 8th and failed producing sizable down moves in markets, including 7% down on $SPX, 10% down in small caps and 20% down in banks.
The divergence in markets now is the largest we’ve ever seen. Equal weight as shown in the chart above is below the 2018 lows when $SPX was trading at 2350 and barely above the 2016 lows when $SPX was trading at 2000-2100.
Make no mistake: All is driven by tech and has been since the January 2018 highs:
Without its dominating tech components even $SPX would be down for the count.
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Indeed reality is this:
Big picture $DJIA: Below Jan 2018 highs, hasn't gone anywhere in 2.5 years. Blow-off top courtesy Fed repo in Q4/19 into Q1 2020. Now island reversal and below key resistance. That's with rates at zero and a $7 trillion+ Fed balance sheet. Congrats. pic.twitter.com/gk1BysNy7P — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) June 30, 2020
The broader markets hasn’t gone anywhere in 2.5 years, but experienced a Fed induced blow-off top in February and now has again reached levels of resistance in June and has struggled with them.j some bull market. Requires trillions in tax cuts, Fed intervention and zero rates to go nowhere. Congrats.
So the Fed has managed to produced the most aggressive counter rally in decades but it also took unprecedented actions which are unlikely to be repeated again unless the Fed goes towards negative rates.
It is in context of this incredible market range chop that perhaps history can offer some guidance.
Here’s the $DJIA during the period of 1999-2002:
$DJIA peaked in early 2000 while Nasdaq ran higher into March, then it was a massive counter rally to lower highs followed by more chop and rallies into September of 2000. Then more chop and new lows as the recession continued to persist and the excess was wrought out of tech. A repeat of this pattern would suggest significant more corrections and rallies to come into the rest of the year with even new lows not being beyond the realm of possibility.
I submit with a market cap to GDP ratio again near 150% we haven’t wrought out any excess, which just transferred it into a few tech companies and we do have lower highs on most indices save tech in context of massive range chop:
While hope and optimism headlines continue to dominate the day to day action be very clear: Companies are downsizing, lay off announcements are daily headlines, and hiring freezes remain. Yes companies are bringing furloughed workers back, but the US is far from a clean reopening as Covid is still spiking higher in many states. If there was a V in the offing we would see it in the banks and yields.
We don’t:
Hence I submit to you: We are in a period of great uncertainty and the notion that the global economy goes back to the same size and state as it was in February is a fantasy. Incremental improvement from disastrous conditions yes, but an all clear and all back to normal? Far from it.
Rather what the big picture says is that the structural charts which predicted this recession via the yield curve, negative divergences and weakening participation were absolutely on the money. And they are sending a clear message: This is not over, there is no sudden quick V, and if that is so, then there will be more challenges coming to the Fed’s asset price inflation operation.
Like in 2000 we’ve already been in a period of vast price ranges and chop. As stated before the broader market has not gone anywhere for 2.5 years despite the continues shouting of buy buy buy.
Rather it remains a tradable market. The base reality here is this: As long as the Fed remains in control corrections will be contained on some levels. June demonstrated the Fed has little pain tolerance and they step in during every sell off. So far I suppose it’s working as $SPX managed to defend key support in June stands above the quarterly 5 EMA:
The question of diminishing returns remains and the danger for bulls, who are keen to apparently buy the highest valuations inside a recession ever, is whether the Fed loses control. For if the Fed does lose control history says markets have an appointment with a 100% market cap GDP ratio or below and if that happens the Fed will have no choice but to go with negative rates and ask Congress to be allowed to buy stocks directly. As many red lines have already been crossed, including the Fed buying $AAPL bonds, buying stocks directly is only the last red line to cross. While the Fed pretends to be concerned about moral hazard its actions clearly say otherwise.
From my perch here: Big rallies into key levels offer opportunities to sell markets, dips into key levels of confluence support offer select long trading opportunities. Like in 2000 the winners are not the stubborn ones, but the ones that navigate the wide price range chop in both directions. I suppose this is another way of saying: Buy the dips and sell the rips while maintaining a healthy sense of skepticism and utmost flexibility for that’s what seeing big picture is telling us and it has yet to lead us astray.
All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. For further details please refer to the disclaimer.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--When Fed loses its jawboning power this market will collapse like a house of cards. Until then, ride

When Fed loses its jawboning power this market will collapse like a house of cards. Until then, ride the bubble wave…

When Fed loses its jawboning power this market will collapse like a house of cards. Until then, ride the bubble wave $SPY $SPX $NDX — hks55 (@hks55) July 1, 2020
Wow. Nasdaq is up 1% while semis (SOX) down 1%. Last time that happened was in July 2009! — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 1, 2020
Citi analysts on the gap between weak fundamentals & strong markets: "Our US equity strategists characterize the sentiment as euphoric with more than 80% probability of negative returns in the next 12 months. In our view, everything has to go right for equity markets to be right" — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 1, 2020
New record highs Nasdaq The economy is booming — Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) July 1, 2020
The Fed Promotes a Quickening that Takes Many Years The minutes of the June 9-10 FOMC meeting are nothing but economic nonsense after nonsense. t.co/MFArnDlzI9 — Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 1, 2020
One argument for virus/closure/reopening headlines to not be mattering is that as long as Congress is willing to keep a floor under household incomes, then anything we're seeing in the meantime just shifts where spending goes. I don't know if I buy it. But theoretically possible. — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 1, 2020
Businesses are "re-closing" just weeks after re-opening. NFIB data shows 70% of small businesses can survive only 3-4 months of this. 50% can survive just 1-2 months. Small businesses account for 64% of private-sector jobs. t.co/TAgIc2UIT8 — Joshua Steiner (@HedgeyeFIG) July 1, 2020
84 Central Banks have cut rates in 2020… Interest rates AROUND THE WORLD are at ZERO. Next steps: a) Helicopter Money
b) Negative Interest Rates 🤯 — Gold Telegraph ✪ (@GoldTelegraph_) July 1, 2020
Fed's Daly sees four to five year recovery in best-case scenario t.co/NjRCfxsrda pic.twitter.com/8S9p46W09m — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) July 1, 2020
*MCDONALD'S PAUSING U.S. REOPENING PLANS: DJ — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) July 1, 2020
Trading with fried air pic.twitter.com/6FwwTPkJ7h — Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) July 1, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--Oil Crash Is In Progress: The Last Days Of Petrodollar! Back To Gold Standard Is The Only Way

The oil crash is in progress but people can ’ t see it coming .
With trillions of dollars of @ @ @ @ @ it will be nearly impossible for the petrodollar system to recover .
Henry Kissinger , @ @ @ @ @ foreign affairs , is still alive , and I ’ m glad that he can @ @ @ @ @ of the petrodollar system around the world .
This is not a sudden process but @ @ @ @ @ over time .
That said , in this video , I explained the oil crisis @ @ @ @ @

The oil crash is in progress but people can’t see it coming. With trillions of dollars of debt and low demand, it will be nearly impossible for the petrodollar system to recover.
Henry Kissinger, the architect of current U.S. foreign affairs, is still alive, and I’m glad that he can observe today’s collapse of the petrodollar system around the world.
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This is not a sudden process but one that has been building over time.
That said, in this video, I explained the oil crisis and the petrodollar system.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--WTH? A new flu virus similar to H1N1 in 2009 has been identified in China

Here we go again ?
Apparently there is another potential flu virus with “ pandemic potential ” coming from the Chicoms .
From BBC : “ A new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic has been identified in China by scientists .
It emerged recently and is carried by pigs , but can infect humans , they say .
The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person , and trigger a global outbreak .
While it is not an immediate problem , they say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” of being highly adapted to infect humans and needs close monitoring .
As it ’ s new , people could have little or no immunity to the virus .
The scientists write in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that measures to control the virus in pigs , and the close monitoring of swine industry workers , should be swiftly implemented .
A bad new strain of influenza is among the top disease threats that experts are watching for , even as the world attempts to bring to an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the whole story here .

by DCG
Here we go again?
Apparently there is another potential flu virus with “pandemic potential” coming from the Chicoms. From BBC:
“A new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic has been identified in China by scientists.
It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.
The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
While it is not an immediate problem, they say, it has “all the hallmarks” of being highly adapted to infect humans and needs close monitoring. As it’s new, people could have little or no immunity to the virus.
The scientists write in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that measures to control the virus in pigs, and the close monitoring of swine industry workers, should be swiftly implemented.
A bad new strain of influenza is among the top disease threats that experts are watching for, even as the world attempts to bring to an end the current coronavirus pandemic.”
Read the whole story here.
DCG
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--3 Charts on the State of the U.S. Airline, Restaurant and Hotel Industries

As you may have already heard , the European Union ( EU ) just released its list of 15 countries that are permitted to visit the 27-country bloc starting today , and the U.S. was not among them .
With the rate of new coronavirus cases spiking in a number of states including Texas , Florida and Arizona , EU officials have determined that the risk is too great to welcome Americans at this time .
Although disappointing , the decision is but a temporary setback .
The EU plans to revisit the list of approved countries once every couple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travelers could be given the green light as soon as mid-July—provided the rate of infection starts going in the opposite direction .
It ’ s not all bad news for the U.S. travel industry , though .
Within the U.S. , the number of people boarding commercial flights continues to rise at a healthy pace .
On Sunday , June 28 , close to 634,000 passengers were screened by the Transportation Security Administration ( TSA ) .
Not only is that a post-pandemic high , but it ’ s also up more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passengers on April 14 .
Many Americans are understandably leery about flying at this time , but carriers have taken drastic measures to ensure that passengers are safe and comfortable during flights .
That includes everything from requiring mask-wearing at all times to conducting a deep cleaning before every flight to , in some cases , blocking off the middle seats .
American Airlines officials are so confident in the carrier ’ s ability to keep their planes disinfected that , beginning today , flights will be booked to capacity , up from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Airlines will be adding 25,000 flights to its schedule in August , to reach 48 percent of its total capacity from the same time a year earlier .
Whereas airlines are cautiously increasing capacity , many restaurants in the U.S. appear to have opened faster than advised .
As a result , some state and local officials are instructing bars and restaurants to limit capacity to prevent further spread of the coronavirus .
The chart below uses data provided by the restaurant reservation service OpenTable .
It shows you the percent change in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of curiosity , I compared reservations in the U.S. , Texas and our hometown of San Antonio .
Perhaps not surprisingly , bookings in Texas raced up dramatically , far faster than the national average , as Governor Greg Abbott reopened the Lone Star State ’ s economy .
However , as cases and hospitalizations in Texas began to spike—on Tuesday , Texas was one of eight states that reported a new single-day high in new infections—Abbott ordered that dine-in restaurant service be reduced to 50 percent capacity and that bars be closed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas bar owners were none too pleased with Abbott ’ s mandate , and today several of them filed a $ 10 million federal lawsuit against the governor for unfairly discriminating against bars .
“ It wasn ’ t like he even reduced the bars and nightclubs to 25 percent—we ’ re closed to 100 percent , ” commented one of the plaintiffs , Texas Bar and Nightclub Alliance President Michael Klein .
The bar industry employs some 800,000 people in the state of Texas .
On a nationwide scale , the picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there were close to 140,000 total business closures between March 1 and June 15 .
Of those , 41 percent are “ permanent ” closures , meaning the other 59 may still be able to reopen when the time is right .
Restaurants and retailers have been hardest hit from the virus , Yelp reports , with more than half of all restaurants permanently closed as of June 15 .
U.S. Hotel Demand Not Expected to Fully Recover Until 2023 As for hotels , it ’ s now estimated that we won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2023 at the earliest .
That ’ s according to the latest projection from hospitality analytics firm STR and Tourism Economics .
Writes Jan Freitag , senior VP of lodging insights at STR , it may take “ 11 quarters for the number of room nights sold to rise to the corresponding levels of 2019.
” She adds : “ Similarly , it will take until 2023 for occupancy to reach the 20-year historical average.
” This has far-reaching consequences beyond travelers not having a place to stay while on the road .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a collective tax loss of as much as $ 16.8 billion in 2020 due to a sharp drop in travel demand , according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association ( AHLA ) and Oxford Economics .
Remember , this is just one group ’ s projection .
Hopefully we can see improvements at a much faster pace .
The sooner more people begin following health experts ’ advice on social distancing and wearing masks , the greater our chances are of flattening the curve and returning to business as usual .

by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors
As you may have already heard, the European Union (EU) just released its list of 15 countries that are permitted to visit the 27-country bloc starting today, and the U.S. was not among them. With the rate of new coronavirus cases spiking in a number of states including Texas, Florida and Arizona, EU officials have determined that the risk is too great to welcome Americans at this time.
Although disappointing, the decision is but a temporary setback. The EU plans to revisit the list of approved countries once every couple of weeks or so, meaning American travelers could be given the green light as soon as mid-July—provided the rate of infection starts going in the opposite direction.
It’s not all bad news for the U.S. travel industry, though. Within the U.S., the number of people boarding commercial flights continues to rise at a healthy pace. On Sunday, June 28, close to 634,000 passengers were screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Not only is that a post-pandemic high, but it’s also up more than seven times from the low of 87,500 passengers on April 14.
click to enlarge
Many Americans are understandably leery about flying at this time, but carriers have taken drastic measures to ensure that passengers are safe and comfortable during flights. That includes everything from requiring mask-wearing at all times to conducting a deep cleaning before every flight to, in some cases, blocking off the middle seats.
American Airlines officials are so confident in the carrier’s ability to keep their planes disinfected that, beginning today, flights will be booked to capacity, up from 85 percent capacity. Meanwhile, United Airlines will be adding 25,000 flights to its schedule in August, to reach 48 percent of its total capacity from the same time a year earlier.
Restaurants Reverse Course, Texas Bars Close
Whereas airlines are cautiously increasing capacity, many restaurants in the U.S. appear to have opened faster than advised. As a result, some state and local officials are instructing bars and restaurants to limit capacity to prevent further spread of the coronavirus.
The chart below uses data provided by the restaurant reservation service OpenTable. It shows you the percent change in reservations from a year earlier.
Out of curiosity, I compared reservations in the U.S., Texas and our hometown of San Antonio. Perhaps not surprisingly, bookings in Texas raced up dramatically, far faster than the national average, as Governor Greg Abbott reopened the Lone Star State’s economy. However, as cases and hospitalizations in Texas began to spike—on Tuesday, Texas was one of eight states that reported a new single-day high in new infections—Abbott ordered that dine-in restaurant service be reduced to 50 percent capacity and that bars be closed altogether.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
click to enlarge
As you may imagine, Texas bar owners were none too pleased with Abbott’s mandate, and today several of them filed a $10 million federal lawsuit against the governor for unfairly discriminating against bars.
“It wasn’t like he even reduced the bars and nightclubs to 25 percent—we’re closed to 100 percent,” commented one of the plaintiffs, Texas Bar and Nightclub Alliance President Michael Klein.
The bar industry employs some 800,000 people in the state of Texas.
On a nationwide scale, the picture looks somewhat discouraging. According to Yelp, there were close to 140,000 total business closures between March 1 and June 15. Of those, 41 percent are “permanent” closures, meaning the other 59 may still be able to reopen when the time is right. Restaurants and retailers have been hardest hit from the virus, Yelp reports, with more than half of all restaurants permanently closed as of June 15.
U.S. Hotel Demand Not Expected to Fully Recover Until 2023
As for hotels, it’s now estimated that we won’t see a full recovery until 2023 at the earliest. That’s according to the latest projection from hospitality analytics firm STR and Tourism Economics.
Writes Jan Freitag, senior VP of lodging insights at STR, it may take “11 quarters for the number of room nights sold to rise to the corresponding levels of 2019.” She adds: “Similarly, it will take until 2023 for occupancy to reach the 20-year historical average.”
click to enlarge
This has far-reaching consequences beyond travelers not having a place to stay while on the road. U.S. states and local governments could see a collective tax loss of as much as $16.8 billion in 2020 due to a sharp drop in travel demand, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) and Oxford Economics.
Remember, this is just one group’s projection. Hopefully we can see improvements at a much faster pace. The sooner more people begin following health experts’ advice on social distancing and wearing masks, the greater our chances are of flattening the curve and returning to business as usual.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--$40 Oil Isn’t Enough To Prevent A Wave Of Shale Bankruptcies

The coronavirus pandemic and the oil price collapse are accelerating the pace of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. shale patch this year .
The number of filings had already started to trend up in 2019 after a drop in prices in Q4 2018 , but this year , the U.S. energy industry is setting some grim records as indebted cash-strapped producers face a day of reckoning from the borrowing exuberance of the past years .
So far this year , bankruptcies in the U.S. energy industry have exceeded 20 filings from companies with more than US $ 50 million in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of first-half filings for protection from creditors since the first half of 2016 , during the previous oil price collapse , according to data compiled by Bloomberg .
In June alone , seven oil and gas companies filed for Chapter 11 , matching the record from the monthly peak in bankruptcy filings set in April 2016 .
Many U.S. oil and gas drillers were already living on borrowed time even before the COVID-19 pandemic , thanks to heavy borrowings from banks over the past years .
But the crash in oil demand and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time for indebted companies to be able to kick the can down the road , accelerating the upward trend in bankruptcy filings .
Analysts and legal professionals expect more energy bankruptcies in the U.S. shale patch in the coming months even as WTI Crude prices more than doubled to nearly $ 40 a barrel by the end of June from the average in April .
The number of filings for protection from creditors in the energy sector has been the second-highest so far this year , second only to bankruptcies in the retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimates .
In the last week of June alone , several companies filed for Chapter 11 protection , including fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy , the biggest victim of the price crash so far and the most prominent example of the U.S. shale industry ’ s modus operandi of the past few years—borrow to drill .
Chesapeake has reached an agreement with creditors to restructure some US $ 7 billion out of its US $ 9 billion debt .
Granted , Chesapeake could have resorted to bankruptcy filing even in the absence of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices .
“ This filing has been a long time coming , ” Alex Beeker , principal analyst on Wood Mackenzie ’ s corporate upstream team , said .
“ It was likely going to happen with or without Covid-19.
” “ If I were to describe Chesapeake in one word , that word is ‘ excess ’ – excess liabilities , excess costs , excess gas in an oversupplied market , said Beeker .
While Chesapeake was the headline in the U.S. energy bankruptcies this past week , two other energy firms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Energy and Sable Permian Resources .
Before that , between January and May , 18 oil and gas firms in North America filed for bankruptcy , including Diamond Offshore Drilling and Whiting Petroleum , data from law firm Haynes and Boone showed .
Chesapeake ’ s high-profile bankruptcy this week is indicative of the ‘ excess ’ in the U.S. shale patch , which had borrowed heavily in recent years , and some companies ultimately ‘ drilled themselves into oblivion ’ as Harold Hamm had warned back in 2017 .
The window of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closed , as creditors and investors had soured on the shale patch more than a year before the pandemic struck , and prices crashed for the second time in four years .
In this low-for-longer price environment , a growing number of oil and gas firms are looking to restructure debt via Chapter 11 proceedings , especially in Texas , where the number of energy bankruptcies is the highest .
“ Bankruptcy filings are up , and prevailing opinion is that the trend is only beginning .
O & G-related bankruptcies represent a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Texas , but retail bankruptcies and service-industry bankruptcies are hot on their heels , ” John D. Cornwell , a shareholder and member of the bankruptcy , insolvency and restructuring practice group at law firm Munsch Hardt Kopf & Harr , told Texas Lawyer in a recent interview .
The industry should spend very wisely over the next few months because “ Cash is truly king in today ’ s uncertain world , ” Cornwell said .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
The coronavirus pandemic and the oil price collapse are accelerating the pace of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. shale patch this year. The number of filings had already started to trend up in 2019 after a drop in prices in Q4 2018, but this year, the U.S. energy industry is setting some grim records as indebted cash-strapped producers face a day of reckoning from the borrowing exuberance of the past years.
So far this year, bankruptcies in the U.S. energy industry have exceeded 20 filings from companies with more than US$50 million in liabilities. This is the highest number of first-half filings for protection from creditors since the first half of 2016, during the previous oil price collapse, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In June alone, seven oil and gas companies filed for Chapter 11, matching the record from the monthly peak in bankruptcy filings set in April 2016.
Many U.S. oil and gas drillers were already living on borrowed time even before the COVID-19 pandemic, thanks to heavy borrowings from banks over the past years. But the crash in oil demand and the collapse in oil prices shortened the time for indebted companies to be able to kick the can down the road, accelerating the upward trend in bankruptcy filings.
Analysts and legal professionals expect more energy bankruptcies in the U.S. shale patch in the coming months even as WTI Crude prices more than doubled to nearly $40 a barrel by the end of June from the average in April.
The number of filings for protection from creditors in the energy sector has been the second-highest so far this year, second only to bankruptcies in the retail and entertainment industry, according to Bloomberg estimates.
In the last week of June alone, several companies filed for Chapter 11 protection, including fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy, the biggest victim of the price crash so far and the most prominent example of the U.S. shale industry’s modus operandi of the past few years—borrow to drill.
Chesapeake has reached an agreement with creditors to restructure some US$7 billion out of its US$9 billion debt.
Granted, Chesapeake could have resorted to bankruptcy filing even in the absence of the pandemic and the collapse in demand and prices. “This filing has been a long time coming,” Alex Beeker, principal analyst on Wood Mackenzie’s corporate upstream team, said.
“It was likely going to happen with or without Covid-19.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“If I were to describe Chesapeake in one word, that word is ‘excess’ – excess liabilities, excess costs, excess gas in an oversupplied market, said Beeker.
While Chesapeake was the headline in the U.S. energy bankruptcies this past week, two other energy firms filed for protection from creditors—Permian producers Lilis Energy and Sable Permian Resources.
Before that, between January and May, 18 oil and gas firms in North America filed for bankruptcy, including Diamond Offshore Drilling and Whiting Petroleum, data from law firm Haynes and Boone showed.
Chesapeake’s high-profile bankruptcy this week is indicative of the ‘excess’ in the U.S. shale patch, which had borrowed heavily in recent years, and some companies ultimately ‘drilled themselves into oblivion’ as Harold Hamm had warned back in 2017.
The window of financing for the U.S. energy industry is closed, as creditors and investors had soured on the shale patch more than a year before the pandemic struck, and prices crashed for the second time in four years.
In this low-for-longer price environment, a growing number of oil and gas firms are looking to restructure debt via Chapter 11 proceedings, especially in Texas, where the number of energy bankruptcies is the highest.
“Bankruptcy filings are up, and prevailing opinion is that the trend is only beginning. O&G-related bankruptcies represent a sizeable portion of the Chapter 11 filings in Texas, but retail bankruptcies and service-industry bankruptcies are hot on their heels,” John D. Cornwell, a shareholder and member of the bankruptcy, insolvency and restructuring practice group at law firm Munsch Hardt Kopf & Harr, told Texas Lawyer in a recent interview.
The industry should spend very wisely over the next few months because “Cash is truly king in today’s uncertain world,” Cornwell said.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-02--The experts should be judged by their record, which at present is highly unimpressive

HE ’ S RIGHT ABOUT A LOT : Rand Paul Is Right About Experts .
The Internet is having a bit of fun with Rand Paul ’ s claim during a Tuesday Senate committee hearing that “ We shouldn ’ t presume that a group of experts somehow knows what ’ s best ” ( here ’ s Tommy Beer with more ) .
After all , they ’ re the experts .
Shouldn ’ t we get out of the way and do as the experts tell us ?
No .
Rand Paul is right .
Friedrich Hayek was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tendency to stretch beyond their expertise and make claims , recommendations , or policies that are beyond the narrow confines of their expertise .
They also tend to collapse social problems into frameworks and models that seem easy to manipulate but that leave out a lot of important on-the-ground knowledge that , Hayek argued , is of a kind that is inaccessible to an outside observer .
In short , it is easy to mistake a model for the actual underlying reality .
It is just as easy to identify important considerations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only .

HE’S RIGHT ABOUT A LOT: Rand Paul Is Right About Experts.
The Internet is having a bit of fun with Rand Paul’s claim during a Tuesday Senate committee hearing that “We shouldn’t presume that a group of experts somehow knows what’s best” (here’s Tommy Beer with more). After all, they’re the experts. Shouldn’t we get out of the way and do as the experts tell us?
No. Rand Paul is right.
Friedrich Hayek was famously skeptical of experts because they have a tendency to stretch beyond their expertise and make claims, recommendations, or policies that are beyond the narrow confines of their expertise. They also tend to collapse social problems into frameworks and models that seem easy to manipulate but that leave out a lot of important on-the-ground knowledge that, Hayek argued, is of a kind that is inaccessible to an outside observer. In short, it is easy to mistake a model for the actual underlying reality. It is just as easy to identify important considerations and act as if they are the only.