investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--How Bailouts And Stimulus Pave The Way For A Lot More Spending On Everything

At this point in American history , it is now safe to say that the idea of “ fiscal restraint ” has become a quaint relic of the past .
The prevailing gospel in Washington , DC , is now to simply spend taxpayer money ( and the money of future generations in the case of deficit spending ) virtually without limit while insisting everything will be fine .
Consequently , the claim that “ we can ’ t afford it ” has ceased to really have much meaning anymore .
Recent experience now suggests Congress can “ afford ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed to rack up another 2 or 3 trillion in debt .
Not surprisingly , then , all those groups that have for years been told that their policies can ’ t be adopted because they ’ re “ too expensive ” will come out of the woodwork to demand some of the loot .
Now that we live in a world where $ 500 billion is seemingly no big deal , surely “ we ” can afford to pay for whatever trillion-dollar plan various interest groups have been pushing for years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a universal basic income ( UBI ) .
Witnessing the profligacy of recent months , UBI advocates now want to make permanent the current “ temporary ” practice of sending out 150 million unconditional “ stimulus ” checks to Americans .
A second example is the reparations for slavery movement , now riding high on the popularity of Black Lives Matter .
In the minds of some reparations advocates , now that political and legal limits on government spending are all but abandoned , it ’ s less and less convincing when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t afford it.
” Earlier this month , for example , the proreparations Southern Christian Leadership Conference claimed that the latest round of bailouts and stimulus packages shows it is quite possible for the US government “ to permanently extend monthly payments to the poor and to pay reparations for descendants of slaves.
” The SCLC ’ s president , Charles Steele , has called the current round of stimulus a “ start ” but insists current levels of spending must be continued to address the needs of the nation ’ s poor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media are now along the lines of sentiments expressed by one poster , who asked , “ USA throwing 1.5 trillion at the banks but can ’ t pay black folks our reparations ?
” [ RELATED : `` Rothbard on Slavery Reparations ” by Jeff Deist and `` Abolition : An Acid Test ” by Murray N. Rothbard ] Demands for reparations can range from a few hundred billion to trillions of dollars .
But in light of today ’ s feverish spend-now-worry-later ethic , a trillion dollars might strike many as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see why more and more people today are left wondering why they can ’ t get a bigger piece of the ever growing government bailout pie .
But once upon a time , a request for even $ 100 billion would have been considered outlandish .
Back in 1995 , for example , the US government put together a $ 50 billion bailout for investors affected by the 1994 peso crisis .
At the time , this was considered an enormous amount of money .
This was so much the case , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later claimed that others assumed he meant “ millions ” when he said “ billions.
” Nowadays , of course , a sum like $ 50 billion appears incredibly small and quaint .
The Mexican bailout was just a small indication of what was to come years later .
In 2008 , the US government and the US ’ s central bank , the Federal Reserve , poured more than $ 700 billion into failing investment firms and other financial sector firms .
Although these bailouts were cynically sold to the voting public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was that the bailouts were enormous wealth transfers that worked to preserve the wealth and power of government officials , billionaires , and investment bankers .
This all came at the expense of smaller competitors and those who haven ’ t benefited from the incessant asset price inflation that resulted from the bailouts and previous rounds of easy money .
This sort of thing did not go totally unnoticed by the general public .
It was becoming increasingly clear that the US government had no problem with unprecedented levels of money supply inflation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when done to support politically powerful firms and other political favorites .
In 2020 , the bailout machine is now a permanent fixture of American politics .
The US central bank , the Federal Reserve is now engaged in nonstop de facto bailouts through its asset purchases , funded by newly created money , to the tune of more than $ 7 trillion .
Eventually , it becomes politically necessary to start sending out checks directly to residents .
The Role of the Central Bank and Deficit Spending This has all been made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bank has essentially allowed the decoupling of government spending from the real economy .
In a sustainable economy , government spending is directly tied to tax revenue .
Deficit spending is limited by the fact that interest rates paid on government debt rise as more debt is issued .
For the most part , if governments wish to spend more , they need to tax more .
This , in turn puts political limits on spending , because taxpayers generally don ’ t like their taxes to go up .
As Ludwig von @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government now does have other sources of revenue .
This revenue is indirectly provided by the central bank .
While it is true the Fed does not directly provide funding to the US government , it does make large amounts of deficit spending far more feasible and sustainable than would be the case without the Fed .
It does this by buying up US debt and other assets so as to keep interest rates low .
And as long as the Fed can keep interest rates low , the US government can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt without the budget becoming overwhelmed by the need to pay immense amounts of interest on that debt .
The Fed largely does this by simply creating new money “ out of thin air.
” And as long as that continues , the US government can essentially increase spending without limit and without the need to increase the nominal tax rate .
Yes , the public eventually pays for this money supply inflation in terms of both consumer price inflation and asset price inflation .
But this mechanism works itself out largely out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make a connection between deficit spending and , say , the fact that first-time homebuyers can ’ t afford to buy a home .
But as long as this mechanism appears to be working , much of the public will view another round of “ stimulus , ” or a slavery reparations program , as essentially costless .
Need another $ 2 trillion for reparations ?
Just add it to the national debt .
This means programs like UBI and slavery reparations will begin to look increasingly feasible with every new trillion spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ryan McMaken ( @ ryanmcmaken ) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute .
Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado .
He is the author of Commie Cowboys : The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre .

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
At this point in American history, it is now safe to say that the idea of “fiscal restraint” has become a quaint relic of the past. The prevailing gospel in Washington, DC, is now to simply spend taxpayer money (and the money of future generations in the case of deficit spending) virtually without limit while insisting everything will be fine.
Consequently, the claim that “we can’t afford it” has ceased to really have much meaning anymore. Recent experience now suggests Congress can “afford” whatever it wants. All that is needed to rack up another 2 or 3 trillion in debt.
Not surprisingly, then, all those groups that have for years been told that their policies can’t be adopted because they’re “too expensive” will come out of the woodwork to demand some of the loot. Now that we live in a world where $500 billion is seemingly no big deal, surely “we” can afford to pay for whatever trillion-dollar plan various interest groups have been pushing for years.
One example of this is the movement for a universal basic income (UBI). Witnessing the profligacy of recent months, UBI advocates now want to make permanent the current “temporary” practice of sending out 150 million unconditional “stimulus” checks to Americans.
A second example is the reparations for slavery movement, now riding high on the popularity of Black Lives Matter. In the minds of some reparations advocates, now that political and legal limits on government spending are all but abandoned, it’s less and less convincing when reparations opponents claim “we can’t afford it.”
Earlier this month, for example, the proreparations Southern Christian Leadership Conference claimed that the latest round of bailouts and stimulus packages shows it is quite possible for the US government “to permanently extend monthly payments to the poor and to pay reparations for descendants of slaves.” The SCLC’s president, Charles Steele, has called the current round of stimulus a “start” but insists current levels of spending must be continued to address the needs of the nation’s poor. A multitude of posts on social media are now along the lines of sentiments expressed by one poster, who asked, “USA throwing 1.5 trillion at the banks but can’t pay black folks our reparations?”
[RELATED: “Rothbard on Slavery Reparations” by Jeff Deist and “Abolition:An Acid Test” by Murray N. Rothbard]
Demands for reparations can range from a few hundred billion to trillions of dollars. But in light of today’s feverish spend-now-worry-later ethic, a trillion dollars might strike many as reasonable.
A History of Bigger and Bigger Bailouts
It’s easy to see why more and more people today are left wondering why they can’t get a bigger piece of the ever growing government bailout pie. But once upon a time, a request for even $100 billion would have been considered outlandish.
Back in 1995, for example, the US government put together a $50 billion bailout for investors affected by the 1994 peso crisis. At the time, this was considered an enormous amount of money. This was so much the case, in fact, that bailout architect Larry Summers later claimed that others assumed he meant “millions” when he said “billions.”
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Nowadays, of course, a sum like $50 billion appears incredibly small and quaint. The Mexican bailout was just a small indication of what was to come years later. In 2008, the US government and the US’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, poured more than $700 billion into failing investment firms and other financial sector firms. Although these bailouts were cynically sold to the voting public as “loans,” the fact was that the bailouts were enormous wealth transfers that worked to preserve the wealth and power of government officials, billionaires, and investment bankers. This all came at the expense of smaller competitors and those who haven’t benefited from the incessant asset price inflation that resulted from the bailouts and previous rounds of easy money.
This sort of thing did not go totally unnoticed by the general public. It was becoming increasingly clear that the US government had no problem with unprecedented levels of money supply inflation, deficit spending, and government spending when done to support politically powerful firms and other political favorites.
In 2020, the bailout machine is now a permanent fixture of American politics. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve is now engaged in nonstop de facto bailouts through its asset purchases, funded by newly created money, to the tune of more than $7 trillion. Eventually, it becomes politically necessary to start sending out checks directly to residents.
The Role of the Central Bank and Deficit Spending
This has all been made possible by the fact that the central bank has essentially allowed the decoupling of government spending from the real economy. In a sustainable economy, government spending is directly tied to tax revenue. Deficit spending is limited by the fact that interest rates paid on government debt rise as more debt is issued. For the most part, if governments wish to spend more, they need to tax more. This, in turn puts political limits on spending, because taxpayers generally don’t like their taxes to go up. As Ludwig von Mises noted in Omnipotent Government:
The government has but one source of revenue—taxes. No taxation is legal without parliamentary consent. But if the government has other sources of income it can free itself from this control.
But the government now does have other sources of revenue. This revenue is indirectly provided by the central bank. While it is true the Fed does not directly provide funding to the US government, it does make large amounts of deficit spending far more feasible and sustainable than would be the case without the Fed. It does this by buying up US debt and other assets so as to keep interest rates low. And as long as the Fed can keep interest rates low, the US government can keep on issuing ever larger mountains of debt without the budget becoming overwhelmed by the need to pay immense amounts of interest on that debt.
The Fed largely does this by simply creating new money “out of thin air.” And as long as that continues, the US government can essentially increase spending without limit and without the need to increase the nominal tax rate. Yes, the public eventually pays for this money supply inflation in terms of both consumer price inflation and asset price inflation. But this mechanism works itself out largely out of the public eye, and few make a connection between deficit spending and, say, the fact that first-time homebuyers can’t afford to buy a home.
But as long as this mechanism appears to be working, much of the public will view another round of “stimulus,” or a slavery reparations program, as essentially costless. Need another $2 trillion for reparations? Just add it to the national debt.
This means programs like UBI and slavery reparations will begin to look increasingly feasible with every new trillion spent on yet another bailout or stimulus program.
Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken
Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Joe Biden describing a plan for a COUP against Turkey on video (Comply or else, we will interfere in

Joe Biden describing a plan for a COUP against Turkey on video (Comply or else, we will interfere in your elections)

WOW @ JoeBiden and his # QuidProCoup He was describing a plan for a COUP against # Turkey He wanted @ @ @ @ @ .
Why was this video SUPRESSED for over a year ?
What if there is @ @ @ @ @ BIDEN-Yovanovich and that comes out @ RudyGiuliani # Gangsters pic.twitter.com/K3DThGx8mk

WOW @JoeBiden and his #QuidProCoup
He was describing a plan for a COUP against #Turkey
He wanted to draw his own borders. Why was this video SUPRESSED for over a year?
What if there is audio/video of the MUNICH 2019 BIDEN-Yovanovich and that comes out @RudyGiuliani #Gangsters pic.twitter.com/K3DThGx8mk
— ToRE (@TweetWordz) August 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Burisma Joe Biden net worth 2009:

Burisma Joe Biden net worth 2009:

$ 30,000 in 2009 In EIGHT years of Obama… $ 11 MILLION .
Who the hell is paying him to @ @ @ @ @ ’ s basic speaking fee was $ 100,000 , but it ranged from $ 40,000 @ @ @ @

$30,000 in 2009
In EIGHT years of Obama… $11 MILLION.
www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/a31265187/joe-biden-net-worth/
Who the hell is paying him to “speak”?
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Biden’s basic speaking fee was $100,000, but it ranged from $40,000 to $190,000.
h/t McDonald Trump


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--The Coming Collapse Of The U.S. Financial System Shown In One Chart

There is one chart that should deeply concern most Americans and the U.S. Federal Government .
While most analysts and economists are concerned about the rising U.S. Debt to GDP or the skyrocketing Public Debt , there is another indicator that is far more worrisome .
Unfortunately , I haven ’ t seen one economist even mention this fundamental indicator .
Why ?
Well , it seems as if most economists look at the world without ever considering the number one driver… ENERGY .
Thus , Economics 101 taught in most universities fails to incorporate energy into the equation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and over , everyone seems to believe in the ENERGY TOOTH FAIRY .
First , let ’ s start with this dismal chart , which should scare the heck out of most Americans .
This is the Total Public Debt from all sectors as of Q1 2020 , from the St. Louis Federal Reserve : As of the first quarter of 2020 , total U.S. debt from all sectors reached $ 77.6 trillion , about three times higher than the U.S. public debt of $ 26.6 trillion .
So , if we take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it by the population for several periods , we have the following chart : Since 1970 , the total U.S. debt per capita has increased a stunning 38 times .
It turns out that every American now holds enough debt to nearly purchase a quarter-million-dollar home .
So , it ’ s no secret that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to almost zero because the ability to service $ 77.6 trillion in debt would be impossible .
Just think if the U.S. interest rate was back up to 18 % during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
How much would it cost to service $ 77.6 trillion of debt with an 18 % interest rate ?
How about a cool $ 14 trillion , or nearly 75 % of the U.S. GDP .
I wouldn ’ t count on interest rates rising unless we want to collapse the entire U.S. economy and financial system .
Although , all bets are off once the U.S. and world head over the ENERGY CLIFF , shown below .
The lighter area of the chart denotes the net usable oil for the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the energy cost .
This is the ENERGY CLIFF .
Secondly , this brings us to the second series of charts , especially the one NEVER USED BY ECONOMISTS .
According to the EIA , the U.S. Energy Information Agency , the United States isn ’ t consuming that much more oil than it was in the early 1970s .
In the early 1970s , Americans consumed 6.3 billion barrels of oil per year versus 7.5 billion barrels in 2019 .
Sure , it ’ s a bit more , but only 18 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population has increased by 50 % during the same period .
If we take the U.S. total debt of all sectors for each period and divide it by the oil consumption data , it reveals a nasty DEBT BUBBLE with unimaginable consequences .
There is no way the Federal Government or Private Sector will be able to continue increasing debt when U.S. and global oil production heads over the Energy Cliff .
In 1970 ( estimated based on 1973 data ) , the U.S. total debt was $ 246 per barrel of oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five decades , it ballooned to $ 10,348 per barrel by Q1 2020 .
This is by far the most important chart that should concern all Americans and the U.S. Government .
The U.S. Debt to GDP and the rising total debt are just numbers on a page .
However , when we compare the total U.S. debt to a barrel of oil consumed , we can provide a PHYSICAL METRIC in the real world run by ENERGY , not FINANCE .
Again… the main driver of the World ’ s Economy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt per barrel of oil consumed increased since 1970 due to the rising oil price and Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment of oil .
If the U.S. shale and global oil industries were able to continue increasing production for another 50 years , then debt levels could also increase .
Unfortunately , we are now heading towards that Energy Cliff , with no PLAN B .
When U.S. domestic oil consumption falls regardless of declining demand or supply , the GREAT DEBT BUBBLE will POP .
At that point , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of your funds in STOCKS , BONDS , and REAL ESTATE .
I have looked at many asset classes , and the safest and most liquid assets to own in the future will be physical gold and silver .

BY SRSROCCO
There is one chart that should deeply concern most Americans and the U.S. Federal Government. While most analysts and economists are concerned about the rising U.S. Debt to GDP or the skyrocketing Public Debt, there is another indicator that is far more worrisome. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen one economist even mention this fundamental indicator.
Why? Well, it seems as if most economists look at the world without ever considering the number one driver… ENERGY. Thus, Economics 101 taught in most universities fails to incorporate energy into the equation. Therefore, as I have stated over and over, everyone seems to believe in the ENERGY TOOTH FAIRY.
First, let’s start with this dismal chart, which should scare the heck out of most Americans. This is the Total Public Debt from all sectors as of Q1 2020, from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:
As of the first quarter of 2020, total U.S. debt from all sectors reached $77.6 trillion, about three times higher than the U.S. public debt of $26.6 trillion. So, if we take the total U.S. debt data and divide it by the population for several periods, we have the following chart:
Since 1970, the total U.S. debt per capita has increased a stunning 38 times. It turns out that every American now holds enough debt to nearly purchase a quarter-million-dollar home. So, it’s no secret that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to almost zero because the ability to service $77.6 trillion in debt would be impossible.
Just think if the U.S. interest rate was back up to 18% during the 1980’s Fed Volcker years? How much would it cost to service $77.6 trillion of debt with an 18% interest rate? How about a cool $14 trillion, or nearly 75% of the U.S. GDP.
I wouldn’t count on interest rates rising unless we want to collapse the entire U.S. economy and financial system. Although, all bets are off once the U.S. and world head over the ENERGY CLIFF, shown below. The lighter area of the chart denotes the net usable oil for the economy, while the dark blue area indicates the energy cost. This is the ENERGY CLIFF.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Secondly, this brings us to the second series of charts, especially the one NEVER USED BY ECONOMISTS.
According to the EIA, the U.S. Energy Information Agency, the United States isn’t consuming that much more oil than it was in the early 1970s. In the early 1970s, Americans consumed 6.3 billion barrels of oil per year versus 7.5 billion barrels in 2019. Sure, it’s a bit more, but only 18% more, even though the U.S. population has increased by 50% during the same period.
If we take the U.S. total debt of all sectors for each period and divide it by the oil consumption data, it reveals a nasty DEBT BUBBLE with unimaginable consequences. There is no way the Federal Government or Private Sector will be able to continue increasing debt when U.S. and global oil production heads over the Energy Cliff.
In 1970 (estimated based on 1973 data), the U.S. total debt was $246 per barrel of oil consumed. But, over the next five decades, it ballooned to $10,348 per barrel by Q1 2020. This is by far the most important chart that should concern all Americans and the U.S. Government. The U.S. Debt to GDP and the rising total debt are just numbers on a page. However, when we compare the total U.S. debt to a barrel of oil consumed, we can provide a PHYSICAL METRIC in the real world run by ENERGY, not FINANCE.
Again… the main driver of the World’s Economy is ENERGY, not FINANCE.
The total debt per barrel of oil consumed increased since 1970 due to the rising oil price and Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment of oil. If the U.S. shale and global oil industries were able to continue increasing production for another 50 years, then debt levels could also increase. Unfortunately, we are now heading towards that Energy Cliff, with no PLAN B.
When U.S. domestic oil consumption falls regardless of declining demand or supply, the GREAT DEBT BUBBLE will POP. At that point, you would certainly be unwise to hold most of your funds in STOCKS, BONDS, and REAL ESTATE.
I have looked at many asset classes, and the safest and most liquid assets to own in the future will be physical gold and silver.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Three Gorges Dam is at 165 meters! It was built to hold 175 meters.

It was at 160 meters just a couple of days ago .
It will be breached at 185 meters .
@ @ @ @ @ hold 175 meters .
We are 10 meters from that point .

It was at 160 meters just a couple of days ago.
It will be breached at 185 meters.
Rain continues to fall…
DOOOOOOOMMMMMM!!!
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The damn was built to hold 175 meters.
We are 10 meters from that point.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--REAL ESTATE’S TICKING TIME BOMB: And Why Insiders are Buying Gold and Selling Stocks

There ’ s been a lot of questions and concerns regarding the next most likely outcomes for us both socially @ @ @ @ @ I can ’ t tell you exact what ’ s going to happen , I @ @ @ @ @ the top 3 scenarios .
So today I ’ m going to show you how @ @ @ @ @ , deflation , and even confiscation .

Links to slides and sources:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
There’s been a lot of questions and concerns regarding the next most likely outcomes for us both socially and economically. And while I can’t tell you exact what’s going to happen, I can definitely prepare you for the top 3 scenarios. So today I’m going to show you how to protect yourself from inflation, deflation, and even confiscation.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Judge Jeanine Pirro… Does anyone want to see Trump take Obama down and have him historically remembe

Judge Jeanine Pirro… Does anyone want to see Trump take Obama down and have him historically remembered as U.S. 1st President arrested and charged for Treason.

Does anyone want to see Trump take Obama down and have him historically remembered as U.S. 1st President arrested and @ @ @ @

Does anyone want to see Trump take Obama down and have him historically remembered as U.S. 1st President arrested and charged for Treason.
— Judge Jeanine Pirro Fans (@JudgeJeaninefan) August 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--The Trump administration’s war on pedophiles and human traffickers is well documented, you just have

The Trump administration’s war on pedophiles and human traffickers is well documented, you just have to look outside of the MSM, because they don’t cover much of it.

Trump said this in 2012 .
Now he ’ s President .
And after he became President , Trump signed 2 executive orders in 2017 to unleash the Justice dept .
on child traffickers and pedophiles and take their property .
Arrests for these crimes have skyrocketed since .
Trump then signed the Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act ( FOSTA ) in 2018 , a bill which clarifies the country ’ s sex trafficking law to make it illegal to knowingly assist , facilitate , or support sex trafficking , and amend the Section 230 safe harbors of the Communications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immune from civil liability for the actions of their users ) to exclude enforcement of federal or state sex trafficking laws from its immunity .
And Trump signed another EO in Jan. : Combating Human Trafficking and Online Child Exploitation in the United States Since President Trump took office in January 2017 , there have been 12,470 arrests for human trafficking , according to arrest records compiled by investigative journalist Corey Lynn , and over 9130 victims rescued .
These numbers are a year old .
Here ’ s an ongoing list of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sourced .
The most arrested in one event is 2,300 suspects in Operation Broken Heart .
The arrests of Epstein , Maxwell , Raneire , Mack and Bronfman ( NXVIUM ) , Wienstein were federal sealed indictments that we would have never seen if Trump was not elected .
The FBI also raided Peter Nygard ’ s AKA “ the Canadian Epstein ” offices in NY .
The evidence is overwhelming that Trump is taking pedophiles and child traffickers down , not protecting them like the MSM and past administrations .
Epstein victim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ documents last year that she never saw Trump at the Island , or at Epstein ’ s home , or with Epstein , and didn ’ t witness Trump involved with any of the girls groomed by Epstein .
“ It ’ s true that he didn ’ t partake in any sex with us , but it ’ s not true that he flirted with me .
Donald Trump never flirted with me , ” said Giuffre .
Trump 2015 : “ That island was really a cesspool , no question about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ ll tell you about it – the island was an absolute cesspool and he ’ s been there many times , ” said Trump .
Trump at CPAC 2015 on Bill Clinton : “ He ’ s got lot of problems coming up with the famous island , with Jeffrey Epstein ” Trump was the only high profile person to help out a victim of Epstein : Lawyer For Epstein Victim Says Trump Was “ Only ” High Powered Person Who Helped Him

by bgny
Trump said this in 2012. Now he’s President.
And after he became President, Trump signed 2 executive orders in 2017 to unleash the Justice dept. on child traffickers and pedophiles and take their property. Arrests for these crimes have skyrocketed since.
Executive Order 1 | Executive Order 2 | Overview and accomplishments.
Trump then signed the Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act (FOSTA) in 2018, a bill which clarifies the country’s sex trafficking law to make it illegal to knowingly assist, facilitate, or support sex trafficking, and amend the Section 230 safe harbors of the Communications Decency Act (which make online services immune from civil liability for the actions of their users) to exclude enforcement of federal or state sex trafficking laws from its immunity.
And Trump signed another EO in Jan.: Combating Human Trafficking and Online Child Exploitation in the United States
Since President Trump took office in January 2017, there have been 12,470 arrests for human trafficking, according to arrest records compiled by investigative journalist Corey Lynn, and over 9130 victims rescued. These numbers are a year old.
Here’s an ongoing list of arrests, every arrest or operation is sourced.
The most arrested in one event is 2,300 suspects in Operation Broken Heart.
President Trump Zeros in on Elite Pedophiles
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The arrests of Epstein, Maxwell, Raneire, Mack and Bronfman (NXVIUM), Wienstein were federal sealed indictments that we would have never seen if Trump was not elected. The FBI also raided Peter Nygard’s AKA “the Canadian Epstein” offices in NY.
The evidence is overwhelming that Trump is taking pedophiles and child traffickers down, not protecting them like the MSM and past administrations.
Epstein victim Virginia Roberts Giuffre confirmed in unsealed court documents last year that she never saw Trump at the Island, or at Epstein’s home, or with Epstein, and didn’t witness Trump involved with any of the girls groomed by Epstein.
“It’s true that he didn’t partake in any sex with us, but it’s not true that he flirted with me. Donald Trump never flirted with me,” said Giuffre.
Trump 2015: “That island was really a cesspool, no question about it, just ask Prince Andrew, he’ll tell you about it – the island was an absolute cesspool and he’s been there many times,” said Trump.
Trump at CPAC 2015 on Bill Clinton: “He’s got lot of problems coming up with the famous island, with Jeffrey Epstein”
Trump barred Jeffrey Epstein from Mar-a-Lago over sex assault: court docs
Trump was the only high profile person to help out a victim of Epstein:
Lawyer For Epstein Victim Says Trump Was “Only” High Powered Person Who Helped Him
Conclusion: Trump is a hero.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--The Ludicrous Deviation Between Bond Spreads and Reality

The Ludicrous Deviation Between Bond Spreads and Reality “ The current environment may be more uncertain and riskier than any we have seen in our lifetimes .
Yet , spreads say the future has never been more certain.
” We recently wrote that line in The Markets Are Sending Confounding Messages .
The article discusses a “ metaphorical fog ” , induced by central banks .
The fog envelops all market signals and , in the process , take away all means of orientation .
Investors , unaware of the fog , are pushing the pedal to the metal with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporate bond fog .
In particular , we show how corporate yields are priced for perfection while the economy languishes in what some describe as depression .
There are many ways to quantify risk .
For this article , we use the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index ( EPUI ) .
EPUI is computed by Economic Policy Uncertainty .
The index is comprehensive , as it uses three distinct underlying components to measure the degree of economic uncertainty .
Per the organization , their methodology is as follows : “ To measure policy-related economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three types of underlying components .
One component quantifies newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty .
A second component reflects the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years .
The third component uses disagreement among economic forecasters as a proxy for uncertainty.
” A high index level denotes more uncertainty , and conversely , a lower level reflects more confidence .
The index and its history can be found and downloaded on the St. Louis Federal Reserve ’ s web site .
The opening quote was from a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discuss the gross mismeasurement of corporate bond risk .
Specifically , corporate bond yields versus U.S. Treasuries are at minimal levels , reflecting a high degree of certainty and strength in the economy and financial conditions of corporations .
The fact of the matter is that over 90 % of the world ’ s economies are in a recession .
Second-quarter real GDP fell by an annualized rate of 32.9 % .
The last such decline was during the Great Depression .
While recovery may take hold , there is no guarantee it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supported by grossly unsustainable fiscal and monetary actions .
There are serious questions as to whether these operations can continue .
Needless to say , confidence in the ability of corporations to thrive is misplaced today .
Historically , economic certainty and corporate spreads tend to follow the same path .
Today , they are moving in the opposite direction .
To quantify this irrational deviation , we compare the EPUI and BBB-corporate/Treasury yield spreads .
The first graph below compares EPUI to BBB spreads .
The higher EPUI , the more uncertainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the more investor insecurity is priced into bonds .
The second graph divides BBB-rated spreads by the EPUI to provide a comparative ratio .
Traditionally , in environments like today , the ratio rises .
Conversely , in times of a healthy economy with solid investor confidence , the ratio is low .
The current level of economic uncertainty in EPUI dwarfs prior extremes .
BBB spreads are near historic lows .
As a result , the ratio of the two rests at the lowest level in 20 years .
This reading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not rigorously manipulating yields , we would expect the ratio to be at the upper end of the graph .
Yields should easily be into the double digits .
Another powerful way to measure the separation of reality and yield spreads is to equate GDP growth with corporate spreads .
During economic slowing or a recession , corporate spreads should widen .
When revenues decline , earnings are more dubious , and the ability to service debt therefore , is more difficult .
Investors in such environments historically demand more protection in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plot below shows quarterly instances of GDP and BBB-rated corporate spreads dating back to 1997 .
As shown , the relationship is statistically relevant with an R-squared of .6105 .
To the human eye , the data also follows a well-correlated path .
As GDP declines ( y-axis ) corporate spreads increase ( x-axis ) and vice versa .
The two orange dots represent the exceptions to the rule , March 31 and June 30 , 2020 .
To estimate where yield spreads should be , we can draw a horizontal line to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their intersection with the dotted line .
The point of juncture is off the charts , literally .
While Q2 was an anomaly , it is not an anomaly to assume a growth rate for 2020 of minus 10 % .
Based on the data above , at such a level , BBB spreads should be 11.65 % .
A second way to assess meaning to the graph is to draw a line vertically from the orange dots to the dotted line .
By doing this , you arrive at the historical economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This optimistic approach says current spreads are commensurate with GDP growth of 3-5 % .
In times like these it is near impossible to be certain in your economic outlook .
More concerning than the current situation , we believe investors are overestimating what economic growth will look like in the next expansion .
In The Decade Long Path Ahead to Economic Recovery – Part 1 Debt , we showed the graph below .
The clear takeaway is that the economic growth rate of each successive expansion was less than the one before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporting the economy , this trend will undoubtedly continue in the future .
Our analysis leads us to conclude the real future economic growth rate will be just above 1 % .
As such , we state in the article : “ Based on this analysis , the economy will not regain pre-COVID economic levels this decade.
” We present more evidence below to help further highlight the gross mispricing of bond spreads .
“ Fifty-four companies defaulted on their debts in the second quarter of 2020 .
That was the most for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wake of the Great Recession .
It gets worse .
The default wave isn ’ t anywhere close to cresting .
Moody ’ s predicts defaults will get worse through 2021 .
Why ?
More debt than ever before was ALREADY low-rated and lousy even before the COVID-19 outbreak struck .
And this credit crisis is much more broad-based than anything we ’ ve ever seen .
Retailers and consumer services firms , for instance , are dropping like flies due to plunging in-store sales and crushing debt levels .
Knowing all that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ junk ” bonds should be doing ?
And investors owning this kind of lousy paper — or mutual funds and ETFs stuffed to the gills with it — would be losing money hand over first , correct ?
That ’ s not what ’ s happening at all !
In fact , junk bonds just had their best month since October 2011.
” Lastly , the following quote from a recent New York Federal Reserve white paper- Implications of the COVID-19 Disruption for Corporate Leverage No one knows with certainty what the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know what the present holds .
The graphs and commentary shown above do not depict an environment in which investors should accept a bare minimum return for taking risk .
The yield on BBB-rated bonds is now in many cases below the yields of Treasury Bills from 2019 .
Just think about the irrationality of that one fact .
Corporate bond investors no longer have a voice .
The Fed now dictates market levels through direct manipulation and suggestions for future action .
Investors must accept yields that bear no resemblance to reality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their money .
The Fed is encouraging investors to pick up their speed despite extremely hazardous conditions .
While many appear to trust the Fed , the Fed can not eliminate risk .
We leave you with a quote from David Rosenberg– “ The Fed is distorting risk markets on a scale never before seen .
They are making a mockery of capitalism and bailing out bad actors .
The system is broken .
”

by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott
The Ludicrous Deviation Between Bond Spreads and Reality “The current environment may be more uncertain and riskier than any we have seen in our lifetimes. Yet, spreads say the future has never been more certain.” We recently wrote that line in The Markets Are Sending Confounding Messages. The article discusses a “metaphorical fog”, induced by central banks. The fog envelops all market signals and, in the process, take away all means of orientation. Investors, unaware of the fog, are pushing the pedal to the metal with little concern. This article examines the corporate bond fog. In particular, we show how corporate yields are priced for perfection while the economy languishes in what some describe as depression. Quantifying Warped Perceptions There are many ways to quantify risk. For this article, we use the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI). EPUI is computed by Economic Policy Uncertainty. The index is comprehensive, as it uses three distinct underlying components to measure the degree of economic uncertainty. Per the organization, their methodology is as follows: “To measure policy-related economic uncertainty, we construct an index from three types of underlying components. One component quantifies newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty. A second component reflects the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years. The third component uses disagreement among economic forecasters as a proxy for uncertainty.” A high index level denotes more uncertainty, and conversely, a lower level reflects more confidence. The index and its history can be found and downloaded on the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s web site. Corporate Bond Spreads The opening quote was from a section of the mentioned article where we discuss the gross mismeasurement of corporate bond risk. Specifically, corporate bond yields versus U.S. Treasuries are at minimal levels, reflecting a high degree of certainty and strength in the economy and financial conditions of corporations. The fact of the matter is that over 90% of the world’s economies are in a recession. Second-quarter real GDP fell by an annualized rate of 32.9%. The last such decline was during the Great Depression. While recovery may take hold, there is no guarantee it will last. Recovery has been fully supported by grossly unsustainable fiscal and monetary actions. There are serious questions as to whether these operations can continue. Needless to say, confidence in the ability of corporations to thrive is misplaced today. Historically, economic certainty and corporate spreads tend to follow the same path. Today, they are moving in the opposite direction. To quantify this irrational deviation, we compare the EPUI and BBB-corporate/Treasury yield spreads. The first graph below compares EPUI to BBB spreads. The higher EPUI, the more uncertainty. Similarly, the higher BBB spreads, the more investor insecurity is priced into bonds. The second graph divides BBB-rated spreads by the EPUI to provide a comparative ratio. Traditionally, in environments like today, the ratio rises. Conversely, in times of a healthy economy with solid investor confidence, the ratio is low. The current level of economic uncertainty in EPUI dwarfs prior extremes. BBB spreads are near historic lows. As a result, the ratio of the two rests at the lowest level in 20 years. This reading is untenable. If the Fed were not rigorously manipulating yields, we would expect the ratio to be at the upper end of the graph. Yields should easily be into the double digits. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Confirmation
Another powerful way to measure the separation of reality and yield spreads is to equate GDP growth with corporate spreads. During economic slowing or a recession, corporate spreads should widen. When revenues decline, earnings are more dubious, and the ability to service debt therefore, is more difficult. Investors in such environments historically demand more protection in the form of higher yields.
The scatter plot below shows quarterly instances of GDP and BBB-rated corporate spreads dating back to 1997. As shown, the relationship is statistically relevant with an R-squared of .6105. To the human eye, the data also follows a well-correlated path. As GDP declines (y-axis) corporate spreads increase (x-axis) and vice versa. The two orange dots represent the exceptions to the rule, March 31 and June 30, 2020.
To estimate where yield spreads should be, we can draw a horizontal line to the right from the orange dots to their intersection with the dotted line. The point of juncture is off the charts, literally. While Q2 was an anomaly, it is not an anomaly to assume a growth rate for 2020 of minus 10%. Based on the data above, at such a level, BBB spreads should be 11.65%.
A second way to assess meaning to the graph is to draw a line vertically from the orange dots to the dotted line. By doing this, you arrive at the historical economic growth rate associated with the spreads. This optimistic approach says current spreads are commensurate with GDP growth of 3-5%.
Economic Caution Ahead
In times like these it is near impossible to be certain in your economic outlook. More concerning than the current situation, we believe investors are overestimating what economic growth will look like in the next expansion.
In The Decade Long Path Ahead to Economic Recovery – Part 1 Debt, we showed the graph below. The clear takeaway is that the economic growth rate of each successive expansion was less than the one before it.
Given the massive Federal debt supporting the economy, this trend will undoubtedly continue in the future.
Our analysis leads us to conclude the real future economic growth rate will be just above 1%. As such, we state in the article: “Based on this analysis, the economy will not regain pre-COVID economic levels this decade.”
Real Measures of Corporate Credit
We present more evidence below to help further highlight the gross mispricing of bond spreads.
From Mike Larson at Weiss Ratings:
“Fifty-four companies defaulted on their debts in the second quarter of 2020. That was the most for any three-month period since 2009 in the wake of the Great Recession. It gets worse. The default wave isn’t anywhere close to cresting. Moody’s predicts defaults will get worse through 2021. Why? More debt than ever before was ALREADY low-rated and lousy even before the COVID-19 outbreak struck. And this credit crisis is much more broad-based than anything we’ve ever seen. Retailers and consumer services firms, for instance, are dropping like flies due to plunging in-store sales and crushing debt levels. Knowing all that, what do you think high-yield “junk” bonds should be doing? Plunging in price, right? And investors owning this kind of lousy paper — or mutual funds and ETFs stuffed to the gills with it — would be losing money hand over first, correct? That’s not what’s happening at all! In fact, junk bonds just had their best month since October 2011.”
Lastly, the following quote from a recent New York Federal Reserve white paper- Implications of the COVID-19 Disruption for Corporate Leverage
“Looking ahead, we find that a sizable share of U.S. corporations have interest expense greater than cash flow, raising concerns about the ability of those corporations to endure further liquidity shocks.”
No one knows with certainty what the future holds. We do, however, know what the present holds. The graphs and commentary shown above do not depict an environment in which investors should accept a bare minimum return for taking risk.
Summary
The yield on BBB-rated bonds is now in many cases below the yields of Treasury Bills from 2019. Just think about the irrationality of that one fact.
Corporate bond investors no longer have a voice. The Fed now dictates market levels through direct manipulation and suggestions for future action. Investors must accept yields that bear no resemblance to reality or receive a negative real return on their money.
The Fed is encouraging investors to pick up their speed despite extremely hazardous conditions. While many appear to trust the Fed, the Fed cannot eliminate risk.
We leave you with a quote from David Rosenberg– “The Fed is distorting risk markets on a scale never before seen. They are making a mockery of capitalism and bailing out bad actors. The system is broken.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Comparing major S&P 500 crashes of the last 100 years

Since we just crossed back into record high S & P 500 territory , I thought I would download the S & P 500 historical data going back over 100 years to compare the major market crashes .
It turns out the Covid-crash had the fastest recovery of any 25 % + market drop , lasting only about 6 months .
The second fastest was after the 1987 Black Monday crash , where the market dropped about 30 % and the recovery took about two years .
By comparison , during the Great Depression the market dropped about 86 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Here ’ s a look at the data charted : And I should add , that while the crashes make headlines , it ’ s important to remember that over longer periods of time , the market always goes up .
Here ’ s my preferred way to visualize the growth of the S & P 500 over the last 100+ years : • Source : I downloaded weekly S & P 500 data for the last 100 years from Yahoo Finance • Tools : Imported into this google sheet , charted , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ final annotation Edit : For those who find this interesting , I often post stuff like this over on my instagram .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by jerschneid
Since we just crossed back into record high S&P 500 territory, I thought I would download the S&P 500 historical data going back over 100 years to compare the major market crashes. It turns out the Covid-crash had the fastest recovery of any 25%+ market drop, lasting only about 6 months. The second fastest was after the 1987 Black Monday crash, where the market dropped about 30% and the recovery took about two years. By comparison, during the Great Depression the market dropped about 86% and took 25 years to recover.
Here’s a look at the data charted:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And I should add, that while the crashes make headlines, it’s important to remember that over longer periods of time, the market always goes up. Here’s my preferred way to visualize the growth of the S&P 500 over the last 100+ years:
Source: I downloaded weekly S&P 500 data for the last 100 years from Yahoo Finance
I downloaded weekly S&P 500 data for the last 100 years from Yahoo Finance Tools: Imported into this google sheet, charted, then screenshotted and pasted into Photoshop for final annotation
Edit: For those who find this interesting, I often post stuff like this over on my instagram.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Is The Fed Hawkish Again?

Is The Fed Hawkish Again?

The Fed Minutes are released 3 weeks after meetings , so they usually don ’ t have large impacts on markets .
However , this July ’ s Minutes caused stocks to sell off .
Stocks declined because the Fed came out moderately against yield capping and didn ’ t give any details on when it will release targets .
We discussed in an article how the Fed was going to announce targets sometime soon .
The Fed threw cold water on this concept in the Minutes .
It ’ s not surprising that the market took this as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shouldn ’ t have .
The Fed is more willing than ever to support markets and the economy .
The Fed is simply looking for what will work .
This is just like how the Fed won ’ t cut rates below 0 because it doesn ’ t think that would help the economy .
Arguably , the market doesn ’ t know if yield capping or targets will work , but it ’ s always willing to receive more support any way it can .
The market is looking for anything it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t helped .
We ’ re in desperation mode .
The Minutes called on more fiscal stimulus , but it ’ s doubtful that position will impact Congress ’ decision making .
As you can see from the chart below , 73 % of Americans favor a fiscal stimulus and 15 % oppose it .
Most of Congress probably supports a stimulus .
Members just don ’ t want it badly enough to compromise with the other side .
This situation reminds us of 2012 to 2016 when the Fed had to provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lack of fiscal support because the government was divided .
The problem is the current economy is much worse than that period and the Fed is already doing almost everything it can .
Yield capping is when the Fed caps the yield of the long bond .
That ’ s different from the Fed funds rate which only controls the short end of the curve .
It ’ s nonsensical to think the Fed even needs to cap the long bond given how low it is .
The Minutes stated , “ Of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most judged that yield caps and targets would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment , as the Committee ’ s forward guidance regarding the path of the federal funds rate already appeared highly credible and longer-term interest rates were already low.
” It ’ s absurd for the market to clamor for the Fed to keep the long bond yield low when it ’ s near its record low .
Do investors fear high yields that much ?
Some speculators might if they buy extremely expensive momentum stocks with triple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what we discussed in our prior article on how the Fed was going to make a big announcement .
It ’ s when the Fed gives specific policy goals before it will change the Fed funds rate ( or QE ) .
It would be like if the Fed said it will not raise rates unless core PCE inflation rises to 2 % or higher for at least 6 months .
The problem with targeting is it wouldn ’ t have much of an effect on the market .
That ’ s because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it won ’ t hike rates in the next couple years .
There isn ’ t much room to get more dovish with guidance .
Furthermore , targeting locks the Fed into specific policy which destroys the flexibility it values so dearly .
The Minutes stated , “ providing greater clarity regarding the likely path of the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate at some point.
” It ’ s a big deal that the Fed said it would only be appropriate at some point .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was supposed to be coming out sometime this summer or fall .
The goal of this policy is to cement dovishness which differentiates it from a rules based approach which puts policy on autopilot based on metrics like unemployment and inflation .
The market hates autopilot as it prefers to be calmed ( even coddled ) .
Targeting is “ outcome based.
” The goals are low unemployment and higher inflation .
One of the worst parts of the recent run in the past 11 years has been the use of stock based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to push stock based compensation under the rug even though paying management is a recurring cost of doing business .
It has been particularly problematic because tech and growth firms use it the most and they have done the best .
The Nasdaq has rallied so much in the past few months , that the crash in March is looking less like the end of a cycle and more like a correction .
Maybe tech stocks still need to roll over .
CRAZY STAT OF THE DAY ( and maybe the month ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in stock-based comp last quarter from earnings of $ 78 bn .
26 % of earnings are siphoned by insiders versus 10 % in 2010 .
– > Bubbles are always a transfer of wealth from the public to insiders .
pic.twitter.com/sLl0rxCWJ7 As you can see from the chart above , Nasdaq 100 companies paid $ 20 billion in stock based compensation last quarter versus earnings of $ 78 billion .
That ’ s 26 % of earnings versus 10 % in 2010 .
The green part of the chart shows the uptrend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ratio .
Before you describe how well these companies are doing , check their stock based compensation because they are pulling the wool over may investors ’ eyes .
This isn ’ t complete trickery on the side of firms because speculators happily support it .
When stocks are going up , nothing bad matters .
When stocks go down , people point fingers at every negative imaginable .
This compensation will be heavily criticized when the bubble in tech stocks bursts .
The Fed is smartly discussing future policy moves .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will move the Fed guidance much further in the dovish direction .
The market wants as much stimulus as possible .
It should pay more attention to Congress because fiscal stimulus will help the unemployed and small businesses way more than anything more the Fed can do .
The Nasdaq has a problem with stock based compensation .
You can say this is the crux of the current income inequality problem .
We have a double digit unemployment rate and small businesses failing , while Nasdaq firms give out 26 % of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock based compensation ( and their stocks rally parabolically ) .

by UPFINA
The Fed Minutes are released 3 weeks after meetings, so they usually don’t have large impacts on markets. However, this July’s Minutes caused stocks to sell off. Stocks declined because the Fed came out moderately against yield capping and didn’t give any details on when it will release targets. We discussed in an article how the Fed was going to announce targets sometime soon. The Fed threw cold water on this concept in the Minutes.
It’s not surprising that the market took this as a slight hawkish change. However, it shouldn’t have. The Fed is more willing than ever to support markets and the economy. The Fed is simply looking for what will work. This is just like how the Fed won’t cut rates below 0 because it doesn’t think that would help the economy. Arguably, the market doesn’t know if yield capping or targets will work, but it’s always willing to receive more support any way it can. The market is looking for anything it can even if the situation isn’t helped. We’re in desperation mode.
Fed Calls On Fiscal Stimulus
The Minutes called on more fiscal stimulus, but it’s doubtful that position will impact Congress’ decision making. As you can see from the chart below, 73% of Americans favor a fiscal stimulus and 15% oppose it. Most of Congress probably supports a stimulus. Members just don’t want it badly enough to compromise with the other side. This situation reminds us of 2012 to 2016 when the Fed had to provide enough stimulus to make up for the lack of fiscal support because the government was divided. The problem is the current economy is much worse than that period and the Fed is already doing almost everything it can.
Yield Capping & Targets Yield capping is when the Fed caps the yield of the long bond. That’s different from the Fed funds rate which only controls the short end of the curve. It’s nonsensical to think the Fed even needs to cap the long bond given how low it is. The Minutes stated, “Of those participants who discussed this option, most judged that yield caps and targets would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment, as the Committee’s forward guidance regarding the path of the federal funds rate already appeared highly credible and longer-term interest rates were already low.” It’s absurd for the market to clamor for the Fed to keep the long bond yield low when it’s near its record low. Do investors fear high yields that much? Some speculators might if they buy extremely expensive momentum stocks with triple or quadruple digit multiples. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! Targeting is what we discussed in our prior article on how the Fed was going to make a big announcement. It’s when the Fed gives specific policy goals before it will change the Fed funds rate (or QE). It would be like if the Fed said it will not raise rates unless core PCE inflation rises to 2% or higher for at least 6 months. The problem with targeting is it wouldn’t have much of an effect on the market. That’s because the market already believes the Fed that it won’t hike rates in the next couple years. There isn’t much room to get more dovish with guidance. Furthermore, targeting locks the Fed into specific policy which destroys the flexibility it values so dearly. The Minutes stated, “providing greater clarity regarding the likely path of the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate at some point.” It’s a big deal that the Fed said it would only be appropriate at some point. That’s quite vague for a policy prescription that was supposed to be coming out sometime this summer or fall. The goal of this policy is to cement dovishness which differentiates it from a rules based approach which puts policy on autopilot based on metrics like unemployment and inflation. The market hates autopilot as it prefers to be calmed (even coddled). Targeting is “outcome based.” The goals are low unemployment and higher inflation. Stock Based Compensation One of the worst parts of the recent run in the past 11 years has been the use of stock based compensation to reward management. Firms try to push stock based compensation under the rug even though paying management is a recurring cost of doing business. It has been particularly problematic because tech and growth firms use it the most and they have done the best. The Nasdaq has rallied so much in the past few months, that the crash in March is looking less like the end of a cycle and more like a correction. Maybe tech stocks still need to roll over. CRAZY STAT OF THE DAY (and maybe the month) Nasdaq 100 companies paid $20 bn in stock-based comp last quarter from earnings of $78 bn. 26% of earnings are siphoned by insiders versus 10% in 2010. –> Bubbles are always a transfer of wealth from the public to insiders. pic.twitter.com/sLl0rxCWJ7 — Vincent Deluard (@VincentDeluard) August 19, 2020 As you can see from the chart above, Nasdaq 100 companies paid $20 billion in stock based compensation last quarter versus earnings of $78 billion. That’s 26% of earnings versus 10% in 2010. The green part of the chart shows the uptrend in the stock based compensation to earnings ratio. Before you describe how well these companies are doing, check their stock based compensation because they are pulling the wool over may investors’ eyes. This isn’t complete trickery on the side of firms because speculators happily support it. When stocks are going up, nothing bad matters. When stocks go down, people point fingers at every negative imaginable. This compensation will be heavily criticized when the bubble in tech stocks bursts. Conclusion The Fed is smartly discussing future policy moves. The reality is neither yield capping nor targeting will move the Fed guidance much further in the dovish direction. The market wants as much stimulus as possible. It should pay more attention to Congress because fiscal stimulus will help the unemployed and small businesses way more than anything more the Fed can do. The Nasdaq has a problem with stock based compensation. You can say this is the crux of the current income inequality problem. We have a double digit unemployment rate and small businesses failing, while Nasdaq firms give out 26% of their earnings to managers in the form of stock based compensation (and their stocks rally parabolically).


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Strong Earnings Revisions But There’s A Problem

Everyone following the economy is studying how the lack of unemployment benefits will affect consumers .
Only 11 states have been approved for $ 300 in weekly benefits ( South Dakota declined assistance ) .
Now it ’ s no longer okay for jobless claims to fall steadily .
We need to see millions of people get their jobs back within the next couple of months or there will be a setback to this recovery .
Congress isn ’ t near passing legislation .
If the Democrats win in the November election , the odds of an extension in boosted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase .
Unfortunately , either that won ’ t be necessary because the economy will have recovered by then , or the slowdown will have started in earnest , making it too late .
Late this summer to early this fall is the window for a stimulus , not 8 months from now .
We will discuss differing data points on the economy from the 2nd week of August when the extra $ 600 in weekly unemployment benefits didn ’ t go out .
You can look at the August data in two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy is in good shape in August , it will only get better as more people get their jobs back or you can say of course August will be good because people still have left over savings from the benefits in July .
In the latter theory , September would be worse than August even if the unemployment rate steadily falls .
Redbook same store sales growth improved from -3.4 % to -2.8 % in the week of August 15th .
That ’ s still a decline , but it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a great improvement from July .
There is no evidence of the fall off in benefits impacting spending in this data point .
There was hardly any difference in the preliminary consumer sentiment report in August compared to July .
The sentiment index rose 0.3 to 72.8 as current conditions fell 0.3 to 82.5 and expectations rose 0.6 to 66.5 .
It ’ s surprising to see confidence hardly budge since COVID-19 cases crashed within the past 4 weeks .
Maybe the decline in benefits canceled out the optimism .
The 7 day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on July 29th to 49,284 on August 18th .
Since April , the 5 year consumer outlook has fallen 18 points and buying conditions rose 21 points because of low interest rates .
The chart above shows the 7 day average of job postings on Indeed as of the week of August 14th .
As you can see , the yearly decline was 20.3 % which was a bit worse than the 18.1 % decline in the previous week .
This week ’ s data was basically the same as last week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in job postings in August .
That being said , this data is a little worse than the Redbook same store sales reading from the same week .
This Indeed survey is right in line with the expectation for no change in initial unemployment claims .
If initial claims don ’ t fall , the narrative will shift towards a cyclical slowdown because of the decline in benefits .
The only thing that can stop a slowdown besides a stimulus is a vaccine .
There are 5 vaccines in phase 3 clinical trials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China , and one in the U.K. ) Unfortunately , we need to wait at least a few months longer for a successful vaccine to be administered .
If any are successful , it would immediately help the economy because businesses would make investments in anticipation of a return to normalcy in 2021 .
The chart below shows how comfortable consumers are with various activities .
To be clear , comfort largely depends on vaccine data , meaning even the activities that people are the most uncertain about will shift towards comfort .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to work as 60 % are willing to do so now or within a month .
Stocks that do well when people go to work or shop at stores are probably doing better than vacation , concert , and movie companies .
However , the companies on the right side of this chart will see their stocks jump the most on positive vaccine news .
The momentum tech stocks would likely fall on that news .
As you can see from the chart below , earnings revision breadth reversed course in May which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Estimates went from cratering to moving higher .
Q2 estimates got so low , a record percentage of firms beat them .
That ’ s not typical in recessions .
However , even in recessions more firms beat EPS estimates than miss them .
Plus , the trend towards earnings beats is increasing .
That ’ s why knowing a company will beat EPS estimates matters dramatically less for predicting stock performance than it has historically .
If every company manages expectations well enough , they will all beat , but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becoming .
That ’ s why revisions matter more than whether a company beats or misses estimates .
This was the 2nd quickest bear market recover since 1950 .
As you can see from the chart below , stocks have increased 68 % of the time in the past 3 months .
This is among the six best three month periods in the past 22 years .
We are seeing late cycle speculation early in an economic recovery .
This is an interesting situation because you would argue that the earnings revisions are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looked at the first two charts .
The problem is the biggest reason for stocks rising is the major tech firms .
As you can see from the chart below , 2021 earnings breadth for software firms is worse than the rest of the rest of the S & P 500 .
The firms that are seeing their stocks do the best are having worse than average revisions .
Economists are looking for a slowdown in August now that the extra federal unemployment benefits are largely gone .
However , jobless claims have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improved .
Indeed job postings have stagnated .
Let ’ s see if initial claims this Thursday corroborate with that weakness .
People are ready to go back to work , but not ready to gather in large numbers or go to the movies .
Earnings breadth has improved .
The stock market is doing really well , however , the hottest stocks are seeing weaker than average 2021 earnings revisions .
The stock market leaders might not be able to keep the rally alive .

by UPFINA
Everyone following the economy is studying how the lack of unemployment benefits will affect consumers. Only 11 states have been approved for $300 in weekly benefits (South Dakota declined assistance). Now it’s no longer okay for jobless claims to fall steadily. We need to see millions of people get their jobs back within the next couple of months or there will be a setback to this recovery. Congress isn’t near passing legislation.
If the Democrats win in the November election, the odds of an extension in boosted unemployment benefits passing early next year will increase. Unfortunately, either that won’t be necessary because the economy will have recovered by then, or the slowdown will have started in earnest, making it too late. Late this summer to early this fall is the window for a stimulus, not 8 months from now.
We will discuss differing data points on the economy from the 2nd week of August when the extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits didn’t go out. You can look at the August data in two ways. You can either say if the economy is in good shape in August, it will only get better as more people get their jobs back or you can say of course August will be good because people still have left over savings from the benefits in July. In the latter theory, September would be worse than August even if the unemployment rate steadily falls.
Mixed Data
Redbook same store sales growth improved from -3.4% to -2.8% in the week of August 15th. That’s still a decline, but it’s an improvement from the prior week and a great improvement from July. There is no evidence of the fall off in benefits impacting spending in this data point. There was hardly any difference in the preliminary consumer sentiment report in August compared to July. The sentiment index rose 0.3 to 72.8 as current conditions fell 0.3 to 82.5 and expectations rose 0.6 to 66.5. It’s surprising to see confidence hardly budge since COVID-19 cases crashed within the past 4 weeks. Maybe the decline in benefits canceled out the optimism. The 7 day average of COVID-19 cases fell from 69,328 on July 29th to 49,284 on August 18th. Since April, the 5 year consumer outlook has fallen 18 points and buying conditions rose 21 points because of low interest rates.
Job postings on @indeed backslid for the first time since late April. Postings down 20.3% vs last year trend — compared with 18.1% a week ago. New data through last Friday, August 14.t.co/ISgl1v7PZG 1/ pic.twitter.com/zyIxu05hc9 — Jed Kolko (@JedKolko) August 18, 2020
The chart above shows the 7 day average of job postings on Indeed as of the week of August 14th. As you can see, the yearly decline was 20.3% which was a bit worse than the 18.1% decline in the previous week. This week’s data was basically the same as last week, but last year had a big burst in job postings in August. That being said, this data is a little worse than the Redbook same store sales reading from the same week.
This Indeed survey is right in line with the expectation for no change in initial unemployment claims. If initial claims don’t fall, the narrative will shift towards a cyclical slowdown because of the decline in benefits. The only thing that can stop a slowdown besides a stimulus is a vaccine. There are 5 vaccines in phase 3 clinical trials (1 in America, 3 in China, and one in the U.K.) Unfortunately, we need to wait at least a few months longer for a successful vaccine to be administered. If any are successful, it would immediately help the economy because businesses would make investments in anticipation of a return to normalcy in 2021.
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Comfort Survey
The chart below shows how comfortable consumers are with various activities. To be clear, comfort largely depends on vaccine data, meaning even the activities that people are the most uncertain about will shift towards comfort.
60% of US adults would feel comfortable going back to work in the next month. Wonder if that has anything to do with most schools going back at least in part remotely. @CivicScience pic.twitter.com/apqi0wVF2v — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 18, 2020
People are most comfortable about going back to work as 60% are willing to do so now or within a month. Stocks that do well when people go to work or shop at stores are probably doing better than vacation, concert, and movie companies. However, the companies on the right side of this chart will see their stocks jump the most on positive vaccine news. The momentum tech stocks would likely fall on that news.
Earnings Revisions Not Equaling A Rally
As you can see from the chart below, earnings revision breadth reversed course in May which is a strongly positive signal for stocks. Estimates went from cratering to moving higher. Q2 estimates got so low, a record percentage of firms beat them. That’s not typical in recessions. However, even in recessions more firms beat EPS estimates than miss them. Plus, the trend towards earnings beats is increasing. That’s why knowing a company will beat EPS estimates matters dramatically less for predicting stock performance than it has historically. If every company manages expectations well enough, they will all beat, but it will be meaningless as it is quickly becoming. That’s why revisions matter more than whether a company beats or misses estimates.
This was the 2nd quickest bear market recover since 1950. As you can see from the chart below, stocks have increased 68% of the time in the past 3 months. This is among the six best three month periods in the past 22 years. We are seeing late cycle speculation early in an economic recovery.
Stocks have advanced a *massive* 68% of days over the last 3 Months. More than 2 UP Days vs Down – among THE best conditions in 20+ years. And just tied the JAN 2020 spike. Historically, this led to some pretty bad outcomes – and *may* have just turned down again. Stay nimble. pic.twitter.com/SDCiklFt84 — Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) August 18, 2020
This is an interesting situation because you would argue that the earnings revisions are correctly driving stock performance if you just looked at the first two charts. The problem is the biggest reason for stocks rising is the major tech firms. As you can see from the chart below, 2021 earnings breadth for software firms is worse than the rest of the rest of the S&P 500. The firms that are seeing their stocks do the best are having worse than average revisions.
Conclusion
Economists are looking for a slowdown in August now that the extra federal unemployment benefits are largely gone. However, jobless claims have fallen and same store sales growth has improved. Indeed job postings have stagnated. Let’s see if initial claims this Thursday corroborate with that weakness. People are ready to go back to work, but not ready to gather in large numbers or go to the movies. Earnings breadth has improved. The stock market is doing really well, however, the hottest stocks are seeing weaker than average 2021 earnings revisions. The stock market leaders might not be able to keep the rally alive.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Square may be the next Tesla for finance/banking?

Jack Dorsey is an amazing CEO .
Being a tier just below Jeff Bezos , Elon Musk and Satya Nadella .
With his success on growing and operating Twitter and Square so far .
Even then I believe square is still undervalued compared to the major banks operating so far .
Yet square is the most forward thinking fin tech company and is evolving to replace traditional banking by adding on features such as the ability to purchase stocks , btc.trading , transfering funds between peers , and so forth .
These features are arguably superior in quality to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash app was just released 7 years ago and today has an annual user growth rate of 50 % / year .
Their future plans will allow users to eventually taking out loans and square will actually open a bank in 2021 .
I believe that Jack Dorseys ultimate vision for Square will be to replace traditional banking as we know it .
Square is Cathy Wood ’ s 3rd highest conviction pick next to TSLA and NVTA .
I think that this stock has tremendous value and will provide a 5-10x investment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Possibly more than that .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by Okmanl
Jack Dorsey is an amazing CEO. Being a tier just below Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Satya Nadella. With his success on growing and operating Twitter and Square so far. Even then I believe square is still undervalued compared to the major banks operating so far.
Square market cap: 60 billion.
JPM: 296 billion
BAC: 301 billion
CITI: 97 billion
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Yet square is the most forward thinking fin tech company and is evolving to replace traditional banking by adding on features such as the ability to purchase stocks, btc.trading, transfering funds between peers, and so forth. These features are arguably superior in quality to the current leading bank JPM.
Furthermore their cash app was just released 7 years ago and today has an annual user growth rate of 50% / year.
Their future plans will allow users to eventually taking out loans and square will actually open a bank in 2021. I believe that Jack Dorseys ultimate vision for Square will be to replace traditional banking as we know it.
Square is Cathy Wood’s 3rd highest conviction pick next to TSLA and NVTA.
I think that this stock has tremendous value and will provide a 5-10x investment value even at today’s prices. Possibly more than that.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Paying extra on your home loan really does pay off!

Refinanced my loan last month ( went from 4.875 to 2.875 % interest ) .
Got all my paperwork and was setting up my online account with my lender so I don ’ t have to mail in a payment .
Noticed my lender has a nice Amortization Calculator on their site .
20 year and 30 year notes had the same interest rate , so I went with the 30 year and planned to make extra payments .
I plugged some extra additional principle payments into the calculator and wow !
I knew they helped shorted the time on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paid , but not by how much .
On a $ 160k note , with 2.875 % interest : • If I run the note is full 30 years ( 360 months ) I will pay about $ 79k in interest .
• If I pay an extra $ 100/mo towards principle I shave 68 months ( 5.7 years ! )
and $ 16.5K off my interest • Extra $ 200/mo – 114 months off ( 9.5 years ) and $ 27k less interest • Extra $ 300/mo ?
Almost cuts the loan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years ) and $ 34.5K less interest !
Again , knew it helped , but seeing HOW much it shortens the loan , and reduces the interest I pay was eye opening .
Defiantly paying and extra every month .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by TorturedChaos
Refinanced my loan last month (went from 4.875 to 2.875% interest). Got all my paperwork and was setting up my online account with my lender so I don’t have to mail in a payment.
Noticed my lender has a nice Amortization Calculator on their site. 20 year and 30 year notes had the same interest rate, so I went with the 30 year and planned to make extra payments. I plugged some extra additional principle payments into the calculator and wow! I knew they helped shorted the time on your mortgage, and lower your interested paid, but not by how much. On a $160k note, with 2.875% interest:
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If I run the note is full 30 years (360 months) I will pay about $79k in interest.
If I pay an extra $100/mo towards principle I shave 68 months (5.7 years!) and $16.5K off my interest
Extra $200/mo – 114 months off (9.5 years) and $27k less interest
Extra $300/mo? Almost cuts the loan time in half – 147mo (12.15 years) and $34.5K less interest!
Again, knew it helped, but seeing HOW much it shortens the loan, and reduces the interest I pay was eye opening. Defiantly paying and extra every month.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Stocks have never been at record highs with fundamentals severely depressed. Fund managers starting

Stocks have never been at record highs with fundamentals severely depressed. Fund managers starting to believe this nonsense… Risk On is turning Off?

Stocks have never been at record highs with fundamentals severely depressed .
Prior lows were also times that gold outperformed equities .
S & P 500 earnings real yield is at its lowest level in a decade !
Fund managers starting to believe this nonsense pic.twitter.com/Uny4XsqL7i We 're seeing a monumental wealth transfer from mom & pops to conglomerates .
Amazon : profit up 100 % Walmart : profit up 80 % Target : profit up 80 % Lowe 's : profit up 74 % Microsoft , Facebook , Apple , Google : stock at record high Risk On is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NOT if .
Insanity .
pic.twitter.com/3ALFjTH8TP The 1990s as a decade of elite failure that got us to the moment we live in today… .
t.co/tFzXg6Ex9m pic.twitter.com/F7aAfSAw8l # Fed balance sheet back > $ 7tn , giving investors the green light for further stock mkt gains as S & P 500 P/E trades in tandem w/ Fed balance sheet .
pic.twitter.com/EPOZ0jAw2i Last 20 years .
All of this bubble-driven madness was avoidable .
But bubbles were tacit Fed policy .
The scorecard is the GDP growth rate chart🤦♂= # FAIL Now we 've @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to to $ 30T ( '21 ) in debt ; and bubbles dangerously atop a weak economy saddled in debt .
# LBO_USA pic.twitter.com/I1guFKF4aj

Stocks have never been at record highs with fundamentals severely depressed.
What’s different this time?
Prior lows were also times that gold outperformed equities.
S&P 500 earnings real yield is at its lowest level in a decade!
Fund managers starting to believe this nonsense pic.twitter.com/Uny4XsqL7i
We're seeing a monumental wealth transfer from mom & pops to conglomerates.
Small businesses: 21% closed; revenue for rest down 30%
Amazon: profit up 100% Walmart: profit up 80% Target: profit up 80% Lowe's: profit up 74% Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Google: stock at record high
Risk On is turning Off pic.twitter.com/40pqmSzXV6
A matter of when NOT if . Insanity . pic.twitter.com/3ALFjTH8TP
The 1990s as a decade of elite failure that got us to the moment we live in today…. t.co/tFzXg6Ex9m pic.twitter.com/F7aAfSAw8l
#Fed balance sheet back >$7tn, giving investors the green light for further stock mkt gains as S&P 500 P/E trades in tandem w/ Fed balance sheet. pic.twitter.com/EPOZ0jAw2i
Last 20 years. All of this bubble-driven madness was avoidable. But bubbles were tacit Fed policy.
The scorecard is the GDP growth rate chart🤦♂= #FAIL
Now we've gone from $5T ('00) to to $30T ('21) in debt; and bubbles dangerously atop a weak economy saddled in debt. #LBO_USA pic.twitter.com/I1guFKF4aj
— M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) August 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--“They will print money and put it in your hands.”

“ They will print money and put it in your hands.
” t.co/i0N6S1Cw1m

“They will print money and put it in your hands.” t.co/i0N6S1Cw1m
— Jan Nieuwenhuijs (@JanGold_) August 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Are Americans Finally Starting To Wake Up To The MASSIVE HOAX? Small Business Owner Puts Govt In Its

Are Americans Finally Starting To Wake Up To The MASSIVE HOAX? Small Business Owner Puts Govt In Its Place – “Our Families Are Starving”

Are Americans finally figuring out the massive hoax pulled off by government and mainstream media ?
At least one person in California has warned the politicians : “ Our families are starving .
We ’ ll become revolutionary citizens soon.
” Have people been backed far enough into a corner that they can finally see their enslavement at the hands of the ruling class ?
It appears that at least a few have figured it out .
Of course , not without appealing to the left vs. right paradigm , which plays directly into their divide and conquer scheme .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and losing their homes because they refused to obey the commands of tyrants .
The Truth : “ Governments Are The Biggest Criminals In The World , And They Don ’ t Want Competition ” “ At first we sat as concerned citizens , and we all wanted to best figure out how to navigate our way through this COVID thing , ” he said .
“ As we realized that it ’ s not as quite as dangerous as we thought it would be , I was absolutely appalled.
” “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m telling you , our families are starving , ” he continued .
“ You guys can sit here with your jobs — you ’ re going to sit here and get paid to fall asleep in your chair like that gentleman ’ s doing behind his mask right there.
” “ I don ’ t blame you for wearing masks because I would be hiding my face if I was you for what you ’ re doing , ” he added .
According to Press California , Carlos Zapata , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , took the Shasta County Board of Supervisors to task at a public forum this month .
Could it be possible that Americans are slowly waking up ?
Let ’ s hope so because what ’ s been planned for us will pale in comparison to the COVID-19 hoax if more do not .
Those Who Planned The Enslavement of Mankind Warn Of “ A Dark Winter ” For Us Stay alert , and remain fearless .
Make any last-minute preparations now , if you can .
Remember , the most valuable commodity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s why the government and mainstream media , and those who own the Federal Reserve and are striving for a world totalitarian takeover need your compliance in their system , with the narrative they feed you .
They are losing control , and this can be looked at as their last chance for total enslavement .
But it ’ s our chance for total freedom as well .
The time is coming when a choice will have to be made : freedom or slavery .
There will be no gray areas , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that .

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
Are Americans finally figuring out the massive hoax pulled off by government and mainstream media? At least one person in California has warned the politicians: “Our families are starving. We’ll become revolutionary citizens soon.”
Coronavirus Panic & Fear: The Greatest Mainstream Media Hoax In History
Have people been backed far enough into a corner that they can finally see their enslavement at the hands of the ruling class? It appears that at least a few have figured it out. Of course, not without appealing to the left vs. right paradigm, which plays directly into their divide and conquer scheme. But, nonetheless, people are starving and losing their homes because they refused to obey the commands of tyrants.
The Truth: “Governments Are The Biggest Criminals In The World, And They Don’t Want Competition”
“At first we sat as concerned citizens, and we all wanted to best figure out how to navigate our way through this COVID thing,” he said. “As we realized that it’s not as quite as dangerous as we thought it would be, I was absolutely appalled.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“I’m a business owner and I’m telling you, our families are starving,” he continued. “You guys can sit here with your jobs — you’re going to sit here and get paid to fall asleep in your chair like that gentleman’s doing behind his mask right there.”
“I don’t blame you for wearing masks because I would be hiding my face if I was you for what you’re doing,” he added.
According to Press California, Carlos Zapata, who owns a martial arts studio in Redding, took the Shasta County Board of Supervisors to task at a public forum this month.
Could it be possible that Americans are slowly waking up? Let’s hope so because what’s been planned for us will pale in comparison to the COVID-19 hoax if more do not.
Those Who Planned The Enslavement of Mankind Warn Of “A Dark Winter” For Us
Stay alert, and remain fearless. Make any last-minute preparations now, if you can. Remember, the most valuable commodity on Earth is the narrative. That’s why the government and mainstream media, and those who own the Federal Reserve and are striving for a world totalitarian takeover need your compliance in their system, with the narrative they feed you.
They are losing control, and this can be looked at as their last chance for total enslavement. But it’s our chance for total freedom as well. The time is coming when a choice will have to be made: freedom or slavery. There will be no gray areas, it’s too far gone for that.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Black dude explains why Joe Biden is bad for inner city black folks

“ @ realDonaldTrump has been in office for 4 years cleaning up their mess of over 100 ’ s of @ @ @ @ @ gets it – Joe Biden has done NOTHING for his community and state !

“Donald Trump is the change…”
“@realDonaldTrump has been in office for 4 years cleaning up their mess of over 100’s of years!”
This guy gets it – Joe Biden has done NOTHING for his community and state!
He’s a Wilmington, Delaware local and he’s voting #Trump2020 in November!pic.twitter.com/XknYXT5Mjb
— Students For Trump (@TrumpStudents) August 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--Housing Boom Or Housing Stock Bubble? Got Gold? Silver?

The DJUSHB ( Dow Jones Home Construction Index ) hit an all-time high on Thursday .
The previous ATH was in July 2005 .
The current SAAR ( seasonally adjusted annualized rate ) for existing home sales as of the June report is 4.2 million .
It ’ s the lowest sales rate since July 2010 .
The last time the DJUSHB was trading over 1,100 ( July 2005 ) , the single family existing home sales rate was over 7 million .
Similarly , new home sales peaked in 2005 at a 1.4 million SAAR .
The current annualized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report is just 776,000 .
The average price per home for new and existing homes back in 2005 was roughly equivalent to the current prices for each category .
On an inflation-adjusted basis , homes were selling at higher prices 15 years ago .
I ’ ll let you decide if the homebuilder stocks overvalued right now based on those statistics .
Two more points of note about the potential for an accident in the homebuilder stocks .
A new survey by Apartmentlist.com released August 6th showed that 33 % of households ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unpaid housing bills for the fourth straight month .
As of the first week of August , 11 % of all households had made a partial payment of their monthly rent or mortgage bill and while 22 % had yet to make any payment .
Furthermore , “ early stage ” delinquency rates on mortgages are starting to accelerate .
Per a Corelogic report for data available through the end of May , 7.3 % of mortgages were at least 30+ days delinquent .
This is compared to a 3.6 % delinquency rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intervention from the Federal Government , Corelogic expects delinquency rates to further spike .
Eventually unpaid housing bills and mortgage delinquencies will pull the rug out from under the housing market and homebuilder stocks .
This also explains why , despite the propagandist housing market hype plastered all over the media , private residential construction spending is contracting rapidly .
Phil Kennedy ( Kennedy Financial ) hosted a discussion about the housing market that included myself , Aaron Layman and Karl Krentzel .
We also discussed the precious metals market and why , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not even remotely in an investment bubble : You can learn more about Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links ( note : a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required ) : Short Seller ’ s Journal subscription information – Mining Stock Journal subscription information Note : I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter .
Furthermore , I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund .

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
The DJUSHB (Dow Jones Home Construction Index) hit an all-time high on Thursday. The previous ATH was in July 2005. The current SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) for existing home sales as of the June report is 4.2 million. It’s the lowest sales rate since July 2010. The last time the DJUSHB was trading over 1,100 (July 2005) , the single family existing home sales rate was over 7 million.
Similarly, new home sales peaked in 2005 at a 1.4 million SAAR. The current annualized run-rate per the June new home sales report is just 776,000. The average price per home for new and existing homes back in 2005 was roughly equivalent to the current prices for each category. On an inflation-adjusted basis, homes were selling at higher prices 15 years ago. I’ll let you decide if the homebuilder stocks overvalued right now based on those statistics.
Two more points of note about the potential for an accident in the homebuilder stocks. A new survey by Apartmentlist.com released August 6th showed that 33% of households (renters and mortgagees) entered August with unpaid housing bills for the fourth straight month. As of the first week of August, 11% of all households had made a partial payment of their monthly rent or mortgage bill and while 22% had yet to make any payment.
Furthermore, “early stage” delinquency rates on mortgages are starting to accelerate. Per a Corelogic report for data available through the end of May, 7.3% of mortgages were at least 30+ days delinquent. This is compared to a 3.6% delinquency rate in May 2019. Barring additional additional intervention from the Federal Government, Corelogic expects delinquency rates to further spike.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Eventually unpaid housing bills and mortgage delinquencies will pull the rug out from under the housing market and homebuilder stocks. This also explains why, despite the propagandist housing market hype plastered all over the media, private residential construction spending is contracting rapidly.
Phil Kennedy (Kennedy Financial) hosted a discussion about the housing market that included myself, Aaron Layman and Karl Krentzel. We also discussed the precious metals market and why, contrary to mainstream belief, gold is not even remotely in an investment bubble:
You can learn more about Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required): Short Seller’s Journal subscription information – Mining Stock Journal subscription information
Note: I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-21--VIDEO: “Outside of #DNCConvention2020 right now – great work”

Outside of # DNCConvention2020 right now 👇🇺🇸 great work , @ TrumpStudents !
pic.twitter.com/kyL7auJ7z3

Outside of #DNCConvention2020 right now 👇🇺🇸 great work, @TrumpStudents! pic.twitter.com/kyL7auJ7z3
— Isabel Brown (@theisabelb) August 21, 2020