investmentwatchblog--2020-07-30--Is This An L Shaped Recovery?

Is This An L Shaped Recovery?

In a previous article , we mentioned the combined total of unemployment claims looked depressionary .
That ’ s a big statement because there are some still calling for a V shaped recovery .
There was a V shaped recovery in housing as new home sales in June hit a 13 year high , but there wasn ’ t a V shaped recovery in the labor market even though the May and June labor reports were very good .
We aren ’ t saying the economy is in a depression , but many labor market data points look bad .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who see a V shaped recovery .
It will surprise those who only started to realize the economy is weakening when adjusted initial claims increased .
The weak report will be reiterated by the retail sales reading which should be weak as Chase card spending growth hit a 5 week low on July 20th and consumer confidence has been waning .
The chart above shows the number of job postings per people searching for jobs has fallen 50 % since the recession started .
More importantly , there has been no increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a PMI reading falls way below 50 ( current economic activity worse than the prior month ) and then rises back near 50 .
Fifty means no improvement .
If the economy didn ’ t improve from the bottom , it ’ s an L-shaped recovery .
The flash July composite PMI rose from 47.9 to 50 which was a 6 month high .
Manufacturing had a 51.3 PMI and services had a 49.6 PMI .
Just getting back to 50 doesn ’ t mean the economy has fully recovered ( for services @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lower rate ) .
The theory is manufacturing is more linked to the global economy which might be doing better than America because America is reeling from COVID-19 more than most countries .
Manufacturing might be considered more essential .
It also might be more used to big declines and rebounds because it ’ s more cyclical .
Either way , services employs much more workers , so if that sector underperforms , the labor market will be hurt .
We will be discussing the number of job losses that switched from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report comes out on Friday July 7th .
As for now , we have the number of permanent business closures versus temporary closures from Yelp .
It ’ s a lot easier to get a new job than it is to open a new business .
People aren ’ t exactly eager to open up a business in a pandemic .
According to Yelp , as of mid-July , 55 % of the 132,500 business closures since March 1st are permanent .
This increase pushed the total above the number of temporary closures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of total business closed has been falling .
This is a race against time as the economy needs to recover quick enough for most of the temporary job losses and business shutdowns to come back rather than be permanent .
In the end , all the pandemic related job losses and business closers will be permanent because either they come back or cease to exist .
The problem here is the rate at which they are dying .
We expect a large percentage of jobs lost to transition to permanent in the July @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprise that the 2 industries with the most permanent business closures on Yelp were restaurants and shopping & retail .
The top 3 states with the most permanent closures per 1,000 businesses were Nevada , Hawaii , and California .
California is the biggest economy in the country ; if it falls , it takes the rest of the country with it .
The Market Sees This Too If you just look at the S & P 500 , it looks like the market is ignoring this weakness .
It isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this pandemic are dragging the indexes higher .
It ’ s a perfect scenario for the S & P 500 as the biggest companies just so happen to do better than most in a pandemic .
If COVID-19 had happened in the 2000s , the S & P 500 would be weaker .
As you can see from the chart below , the ratio of cyclicals to defensives stopped going up in late May as the market saw a cyclical slowdown coming .
Originally , when we saw the slowdown before most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we expected a stock market decline .
When it didn ’ t happen and the slowdown became common knowledge , we knew something was afoot .
It then became clear the sector rotation was the market ’ s idea of pricing this in .
You can argue that the big internet names will be hurt by COVID-19 ; they just will be hurt less .
If that ’ s the case , we should see an outright decline in the index .
The other way to get a decline , ironically would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explain why here ) .
The table below is as shocking as this year has been .
As you can see , normally when the economy is weak , the highest multiple stocks do the worst .
It ’ s shocking because it shows how unusual this year has been as there was a recession this year and the stocks with the highest multiples did the best .
Specifically , in the bottom 20 % of economic performances from 1926 to 2019 , the top 20 % of stocks in terms of valuation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performance of 1.01 % .
We have seen stocks with zero earnings rally that much in few minutes this year .
On the other hand , this table shows the stocks in the bottom quintile of valuations ( 10.49X ) gain 40.61 % .
Instead , this year the value stocks have extended years of underperformance .
That ’ s partially because the value stocks of today are mostly cyclicals .
The labor market is in trouble and the number of businesses that are permanently shutting down is increasing .
California is underperforming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be in trouble because it ’ s the biggest economy .
The stock market sees what is now obvious .
It has decided not to sell off all stocks , especially not the big internet names ( until recently ) .
Instead it has gone with sector rotation .
Usually , in slowdowns and recessions , the most expensive stocks underperform , but this time value stocks are underperforming ( until recently ) .
The concept of there being safety in value hasn ’ t worked out yet .

by UPFINA
In a previous article, we mentioned the combined total of unemployment claims looked depressionary. That’s a big statement because there are some still calling for a V shaped recovery. There was a V shaped recovery in housing as new home sales in June hit a 13 year high, but there wasn’t a V shaped recovery in the labor market even though the May and June labor reports were very good.
We aren’t saying the economy is in a depression, but many labor market data points look bad. The July BLS report will shock the people who see a V shaped recovery. It will surprise those who only started to realize the economy is weakening when adjusted initial claims increased. The weak report will be reiterated by the retail sales reading which should be weak as Chase card spending growth hit a 5 week low on July 20th and consumer confidence has been waning.
Relevant for the UI benefits debate- job postings per searching unemployed has fallen by about 50% since before the pandemic. 1/ pic.twitter.com/6kaSjXUBVv — Eliza Forsythe (@ElizaForsythe) July 24, 2020
The chart above shows the number of job postings per people searching for jobs has fallen 50% since the recession started. More importantly, there has been no increase since May. This looks like when a PMI reading falls way below 50 (current economic activity worse than the prior month) and then rises back near 50. Fifty means no improvement. If the economy didn’t improve from the bottom, it’s an L-shaped recovery. The flash July composite PMI rose from 47.9 to 50 which was a 6 month high. Manufacturing had a 51.3 PMI and services had a 49.6 PMI. Just getting back to 50 doesn’t mean the economy has fully recovered (for services, it’s getting worse at a lower rate).
The theory is manufacturing is more linked to the global economy which might be doing better than America because America is reeling from COVID-19 more than most countries. Manufacturing might be considered more essential. It also might be more used to big declines and rebounds because it’s more cyclical. Either way, services employs much more workers, so if that sector underperforms, the labor market will be hurt.
Permanent Business Closures Increase
We will be discussing the number of job losses that switched from temporary to permanent when the July labor report comes out on Friday July 7th. As for now, we have the number of permanent business closures versus temporary closures from Yelp. It’s a lot easier to get a new job than it is to open a new business. People aren’t exactly eager to open up a business in a pandemic.
'The economic crisis caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic has entered a new phase, with permanent business closures now outnumbering temporary ones, new data shows.' t.co/CWC9UX6Ez5 pic.twitter.com/xgatDYAjEJ — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) July 23, 2020
According to Yelp, as of mid-July, 55% of the 132,500 business closures since March 1st are permanent. This increase pushed the total above the number of temporary closures. To be clear, the number of total business closed has been falling. This is a race against time as the economy needs to recover quick enough for most of the temporary job losses and business shutdowns to come back rather than be permanent.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the end, all the pandemic related job losses and business closers will be permanent because either they come back or cease to exist. The problem here is the rate at which they are dying. We expect a large percentage of jobs lost to transition to permanent in the July BLS report. It’s no surprise that the 2 industries with the most permanent business closures on Yelp were restaurants and shopping & retail. The top 3 states with the most permanent closures per 1,000 businesses were Nevada, Hawaii, and California. California is the biggest economy in the country; if it falls, it takes the rest of the country with it.
The Market Sees This Too
If you just look at the S&P 500, it looks like the market is ignoring this weakness. It isn’t ignoring it. The businesses that outperform in this pandemic are dragging the indexes higher. It’s a perfect scenario for the S&P 500 as the biggest companies just so happen to do better than most in a pandemic. If COVID-19 had happened in the 2000s, the S&P 500 would be weaker. As you can see from the chart below, the ratio of cyclicals to defensives stopped going up in late May as the market saw a cyclical slowdown coming.
S&P 1500 index, equally weighted sectors, price ratio of cyclicals to defensives – @SoberLook @Gavekal pic.twitter.com/1HqDQ3HLIC — Rob Hager (@Rob_Hager) July 24, 2020
Originally, when we saw the slowdown before most did in mid to late June, we expected a stock market decline. When it didn’t happen and the slowdown became common knowledge, we knew something was afoot. It then became clear the sector rotation was the market’s idea of pricing this in. You can argue that the big internet names will be hurt by COVID-19; they just will be hurt less. If that’s the case, we should see an outright decline in the index. The other way to get a decline, ironically would be to have a cyclical recovery (we explain why here).
A Very Weird Recovery Rally
The table below is as shocking as this year has been. As you can see, normally when the economy is weak, the highest multiple stocks do the worst. It’s shocking because it shows how unusual this year has been as there was a recession this year and the stocks with the highest multiples did the best.
Specifically, in the bottom 20% of economic performances from 1926 to 2019, the top 20% of stocks in terms of valuation (21.67X) had a 1 year performance of 1.01%. We have seen stocks with zero earnings rally that much in few minutes this year. On the other hand, this table shows the stocks in the bottom quintile of valuations (10.49X) gain 40.61%. Instead, this year the value stocks have extended years of underperformance. That’s partially because the value stocks of today are mostly cyclicals.
Conclusion
The labor market is in trouble and the number of businesses that are permanently shutting down is increasing. California is underperforming. That’s the worst state to be in trouble because it’s the biggest economy. The stock market sees what is now obvious. It has decided not to sell off all stocks, especially not the big internet names (until recently). Instead it has gone with sector rotation. Usually, in slowdowns and recessions, the most expensive stocks underperform, but this time value stocks are underperforming (until recently). The concept of there being safety in value hasn’t worked out yet.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Big tech’s out to get conservatives. It’s time they face the consequences.

Big tech ’ s out to get conservatives .
It ’ s time they face the consequences .
pic.twitter.com/jfPRPL1rZ1

Big tech’s out to get conservatives. It’s time they face the consequences. pic.twitter.com/jfPRPL1rZ1
— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) July 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Quicken Loans Files IPO at over $3.8 Billion In Valuation

UPDATE : Barrons reporting Rocket will go public on August 6th .
172.5 million shares expected between $ 20- $ @ @ @ @ @ underwriters 150 million shares of Class A .
Four classes will be issued .
Disclaimer @ @ @ @ @ for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in @ @ @ @ @ own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by B1naryBl00d
UPDATE: Barrons reporting Rocket will go public on August 6th.
www.barrons.com/articles/rocket-mortgages-ipo-is-next-week-what-to-know-51595980494?mod=hp_LATEST
———
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www.wxyz.com/news/quicken-loans-to-offer-150m-shares-in-ipo-between-20-22-per-share
172.5 million shares expected between $20-$22/share 22.5 million shares for underwriters 150 million shares of Class A. Four classes will be issued.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--The comedy how I lost all my money in two hours

I never traded metals and forex before , just stocks .
Today when gold started to consolidate at the last hour , I decided to scalp short it with a large amount , so I opened 100 lots .
I haven ’ t realised , in forex 100 ( lots ) doesn ’ t mean “ 100 pcs ” , because I used to stocks and I went full retard without knowledge .
Seconds later , I realised it means 10 million dollars ( 1 lot = 100.000 , and I had 500x leverage ) .
It moved up a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I scared as f*ck and rather than closing the position quickly I hoped maybe I could close break even .
The market closed , and I waited for the Asian session .
The gold popped like never before , and I lost all my life savings ( £55000 ) in less than two hours .
( including the 1-hour break between sessions ) .
If I count that I lost all my earnings as well , I lost around £85000 .
Here is the margin call IC Markets closed my position partially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it myself at £35 .
You know the rest of the story .
I ’ m depressed , crying and shouting with myself .
Yes , I know I was stupid , thanks .
I just wanted to share this with you .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by fail0verflowf9
I’m trading for 11 months with pretty good success.
I never traded metals and forex before, just stocks. Today when gold started to consolidate at the last hour, I decided to scalp short it with a large amount, so I opened 100 lots. I haven’t realised, in forex 100 (lots) doesn’t mean “100 pcs”, because I used to stocks and I went full retard without knowledge.
Seconds later, I realised it means 10 million dollars (1 lot = 100.000, and I had 500x leverage).
It moved up a bit and immediately I was down £4000. I scared as f*ck and rather than closing the position quickly I hoped maybe I could close break even.
The market closed, and I waited for the Asian session. The gold popped like never before, and I lost all my life savings (£55000) in less than two hours. (including the 1-hour break between sessions).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If I count that I lost all my earnings as well, I lost around £85000.
Here is the margin call
IC Markets closed my position partially in every 1-2 minutes until I shut it myself at £35.
You know the rest of the story. I’m depressed, crying and shouting with myself.
Yes, I know I was stupid, thanks. I just wanted to share this with you.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Are Markets Priced To Perfection?

Are Markets Priced To Perfection?

It ’ s tough to explain how unusual this recent run in markets has been because everything has been unusual this year .
If something normal happened , it would be a shocker .
In fact , that ’ s why some casual observers are shocked by the S & P 500 ’ s relatively normal return year to date .
It ’ s up 0.27 % this year , which isn ’ t that far less than usual .
It ’ s especially surprising considering the global pandemic and double digit unemployment rate .
The chart below shows how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A portfolio with a quarter in cash , stocks , bonds , and gold ( each ) just had its best 90 day run ever .
It is up 18 % .
That ’ s because the tech stocks and gold have increased due to the decline in real yields .
This portfolio seems diversified , but it picks up on the strongest trends of the past few months .
All Asset Movements Come From The Same Catalyst Gold and the S & P 500 hit record highs in the same year for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cloud stocks look a lot like the gold mining stocks as both have gone vertical .
Specifically , the CLOU cloud stock ETF is up 75 % and the GDX gold mining ETF is up 131 % since its March bottom .
Many individual traders are living in their own micro world and missing the macro picture .
These investments are widely different , but they have become correlated because of the decline in yields .
As you can see from the chart above , recently the decline in real yields has picked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which implies inflation recovered .
Inflation is bad for tech stocks , so that ’ s something to watch .
Individually these 2 groups have reached a slew of unusual records and firsts in a long time .
For example , the Nasdaq 100 beat the broad based Russell 3000 stock index 9 months in a row which ties the 2000 record .
At least the spread of outperformance isn ’ t as large as it was in the late 1990s .
75 % of GDX index members hit 52 weeks highs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ only happened in 2016 .
Gold call option volumes hit the 2nd highest level ever last week .
The Nasdaq 100 ’ s 20 day moving average has risen 75 days in a row which is the 6th longest streak since 1985 .
The longest is 89 days a few months ago .
The GLD , IAU ( both gold ) , and SLV ( silver ) all were in the top 5 of weekly fund flows last week .
One of the main justifications many investors are giving for high stock multiples @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they will be low for a long time .
Some economists are already forecasting that the Fed won ’ t hike rates until 2025 .
Last expansion was unprecedented as many investors and economists kept predicting rates to rise .
The Fed took years before finally obliging .
The difference now is investors are very confident the Fed won ’ t hike rates .
Future estimates are different from last cycle causing many to raise the price they would pay for stocks .
The table above shows when surveyed market participants expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can see , the median estimate is for a 4.5 % unemployment rate and a 2.1 % core PCE inflation rate .
The economy is very far from that unemployment rate as it may have risen from the 11.1 % rate in June .
In May , core PCE inflation was just 1 % .
In the past 10 years , there have only been 4 months where core PCE inflation has been at or above 2.1 % .
Clearly , expectations are for no rate hikes anytime in the next few years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this spring , but that likely won ’ t be enough for core inflation to get near these targets .
The Fed ’ s policies have been exaggerated or guidance is extremely powerful .
Those are the only two potential conclusions you can make when looking at markets and the chart below .
As you can see , the Fed ’ s new emergency programs to support the market have hardly been tapped .
Either private firms have lower borrowing costs elsewhere or the programs have been expensive and complicated to use .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ an impending issue with a major corporation , the Fed would do whatever it takes to solve that problem .
The public equity and bonds markets are working fine partially because the Fed is willing to do anything .
The problem is how this trickles down to small businesses .
They are hurting .
71 % have used their entire PPP loan and 20 % expect to layoff employees .
About half will need more money in the next year and 22 % think they won ’ t last for the next 7-12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only issue .
If sales are diminished because of COVID-19 indefinitely , there is no motivation to get back to business ( in some places it ’ s illegal ) .
This earnings season is a lot different from the last one .
Guidance is the most important aspect of earnings season .
Heading into Q1 earnings season , investors expected terrible guidance because Q2 is when most of the weakness due to COVID-19 occurred .
However , investors were pleasantly surprised when firms showed how the trends were improving in the 2nd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are in Q2 , so you ’ d think firms would be more optimistic knowing that the worst is behind them .
However , many firms are gloomy because the economy weakened in July ( different from its improvement in April ) .
The graphic above shows a few management quotes from this quarter .
The Marriot CEO is less optimistic than he was 30 days ago .
Manpower Group CEO said he no longer discusses V shaped recovery expectations with clients .
Now they see a U shaped gradual recovery .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak data .
A diversified portfolio of gold , cash , bonds , and stocks just had its best 90 day return ever .
Real yields are at a record low .
Investors expect zero Fed rates for a few years .
The hyped V shaped recovery is gone .
Now firms are hoping for a U shaped recovery .
That ’ s likely already priced in through the decline in yields and weakness in value stocks .
We ’ ve been discussing this cyclical slowdown for about 6 weeks .

by UPFINA
It’s tough to explain how unusual this recent run in markets has been because everything has been unusual this year. If something normal happened, it would be a shocker. In fact, that’s why some casual observers are shocked by the S&P 500’s relatively normal return year to date. It’s up 0.27% this year, which isn’t that far less than usual. It’s especially surprising considering the global pandemic and double digit unemployment rate.
The chart below shows how weird the recent action has been. A portfolio with a quarter in cash, stocks, bonds, and gold (each) just had its best 90 day run ever. It is up 18%. That’s because the tech stocks and gold have increased due to the decline in real yields. This portfolio seems diversified, but it picks up on the strongest trends of the past few months.
#Diversification is key … equal-weighted stocks/bonds/cash/gold portfolio up 18% over past 90 days
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] @SoberLook @BankofAmerica @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/Lma1O2VBGq — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 27, 2020
All Asset Movements Come From The Same Catalyst
Gold and the S&P 500 hit record highs in the same year for the first time since 1979. The cloud stocks look a lot like the gold mining stocks as both have gone vertical. Specifically, the CLOU cloud stock ETF is up 75% and the GDX gold mining ETF is up 131% since its March bottom. Many individual traders are living in their own micro world and missing the macro picture. These investments are widely different, but they have become correlated because of the decline in yields.
While nominal 10-year Treasury yields have been range bound, “real” 10-year Treasury yields continue to hit new all-time lows pic.twitter.com/j20S43xLUi — Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) July 27, 2020
As you can see from the chart above, recently the decline in real yields has picked up steam in relation to nominal yields which implies inflation recovered. Inflation is bad for tech stocks, so that’s something to watch. Individually these 2 groups have reached a slew of unusual records and firsts in a long time. For example, the Nasdaq 100 beat the broad based Russell 3000 stock index 9 months in a row which ties the 2000 record. At least the spread of outperformance isn’t as large as it was in the late 1990s. 75% of GDX index members hit 52 weeks highs. In the past 26 years, this only happened in 2016. Gold call option volumes hit the 2nd highest level ever last week. The Nasdaq 100’s 20 day moving average has risen 75 days in a row which is the 6th longest streak since 1985. The longest is 89 days a few months ago. The GLD, IAU (both gold), and SLV (silver) all were in the top 5 of weekly fund flows last week.
No Rate Hikes In A Long Time
One of the main justifications many investors are giving for high stock multiples is not only are rates low, but they will be low for a long time. Some economists are already forecasting that the Fed won’t hike rates until 2025. Last expansion was unprecedented as many investors and economists kept predicting rates to rise. The Fed took years before finally obliging. The difference now is investors are very confident the Fed won’t hike rates. Future estimates are different from last cycle causing many to raise the price they would pay for stocks.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As the Fed moves to recalibrate its forward guidance, the results of our shadow survey suggest market participants have already adjusted their views: the median expectation is for rates to stay at zero until the UR falls to 4.5% & core inflation has risen to 2.1%@ElizRosner pic.twitter.com/ixaVrJzVgS — Julia Coronado, Ph.D. (@jc_econ) July 27, 2020
The table above shows when surveyed market participants expect rates to be hiked. As you can see, the median estimate is for a 4.5% unemployment rate and a 2.1% core PCE inflation rate. The economy is very far from that unemployment rate as it may have risen from the 11.1% rate in June. In May, core PCE inflation was just 1%. In the past 10 years, there have only been 4 months where core PCE inflation has been at or above 2.1%. Clearly, expectations are for no rate hikes anytime in the next few years. Inflation will rebound from the trough this spring, but that likely won’t be enough for core inflation to get near these targets.
Fed Programs Haven’t Been Utilized
The Fed’s policies have been exaggerated or guidance is extremely powerful. Those are the only two potential conclusions you can make when looking at markets and the chart below. As you can see, the Fed’s new emergency programs to support the market have hardly been tapped. Either private firms have lower borrowing costs elsewhere or the programs have been expensive and complicated to use.
To be clear, if there was an impending issue with a major corporation, the Fed would do whatever it takes to solve that problem. The public equity and bonds markets are working fine partially because the Fed is willing to do anything. The problem is how this trickles down to small businesses. They are hurting. 71% have used their entire PPP loan and 20% expect to layoff employees. About half will need more money in the next year and 22% think they won’t last for the next 7-12 months. Money isn’t the only issue. If sales are diminished because of COVID-19 indefinitely, there is no motivation to get back to business (in some places it’s illegal).
It's pretty remarkable actually how little of the various Fed programs' capacities has been tapped. Kind of a perception vs reality thing, really via @NickTimiraos t.co/eywAvOhjhi pic.twitter.com/Z9BBo4cPwZ — Lawrence Hamtil (@lhamtil) July 27, 2020
Brutal Conference Calls
This earnings season is a lot different from the last one. Guidance is the most important aspect of earnings season. Heading into Q1 earnings season, investors expected terrible guidance because Q2 is when most of the weakness due to COVID-19 occurred. However, investors were pleasantly surprised when firms showed how the trends were improving in the 2nd half of April and May. Now we are in Q2, so you’d think firms would be more optimistic knowing that the worst is behind them. However, many firms are gloomy because the economy weakened in July (different from its improvement in April).
The graphic above shows a few management quotes from this quarter. The Marriot CEO is less optimistic than he was 30 days ago. Manpower Group CEO said he no longer discusses V shaped recovery expectations with clients. Now they see a U shaped gradual recovery. That’s because of the recent weak data.
Conclusion
A diversified portfolio of gold, cash, bonds, and stocks just had its best 90 day return ever. Real yields are at a record low. Investors expect zero Fed rates for a few years. The hyped V shaped recovery is gone. Now firms are hoping for a U shaped recovery. That’s likely already priced in through the decline in yields and weakness in value stocks. We’ve been discussing this cyclical slowdown for about 6 weeks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--The reason why Intel dropped 15%

The reason why Intel dropped 15%

Stock dropped 10 % in premarket , then another 7 % .
To be 17 % before the market actually opened .
I wanted to see what happened , as eps and revenue was beaten , so it was suprising that such a big company could be down -15 % .
This is like penny stocks kind of move .
After listening to the call , I now understand that the price was directly affected by these analysts and this call .
Infact it could be 75 % affected by this call .
Hare are the participants of the call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4pm ET ( unconfirmed ) but before market closed .
Here is the call itself See in the earnings call , the first thing that was mentioned is that intel is very soon releasing TIGER LAKE which according to this article is faster than AMD They also mentioned datacentre On-Die Interconnect is available This helps data move between different compute engines , memory , and I/O and ensure very high low latency .
Something which linux struggles with and has to use the same numa nodes to combat this .
AMD doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very important since the Datacentre industry is worth 23 billion .
They mentioned the delay in 7nm because of yield degradation .
But didn ’ t really elaborate on that .
Then they talked about : Datacentre revenue up 34 % which is 52 % of total revenue The analysts didn ’ t really buy it .
Asked about 7nm delay , whats the market implication of that and outsourcing .
– Bob kind of didnt really answer the question and beat around the bush .
George mentioned that they have big demand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affect the market too much .
He mentioned that the focus is on global economy because of coronavirus than 7nm.Didn ’ t really answer the question well .
Follow up question on 7nm delay , and how will INTEL avoid the same mistake .
A : Didnt really answer the question well , just mentioned that they have milestones and will be more pragmatic Asked if they can make 7nm the focus .
A : Mentioned that 10nm is a great product .
beat about the bush .
Asked about the margins of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing faster in 5g comms side and had a higher product demand for 10nm .
long term implication of outsourcing some of the process technology Answers : The drop on DCG earnings because of : This is not a good look , I feel that the answer wasn ’ t really straight forward .
A : Expect to be lower.Again not a good look and you can even hear the tone , that Srini wasn ’ t impressed .
Basically this call didn ’ t really leave a good impression on the analysts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deserved because the CEO and CFO can ’ t answer questions truthfully , beat about the bush .
The expectation for future quarters is low .
The only thing that can save Intel now , is change the CEO and CFO .
I expect the share price to drop to 40 .
It really sucks because I hold Intel .
Now I have to hold this stock for the next year and put in extra money to cover the stop losses and fees .
There might be a boost with tiger lake but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by automax
On Thursday afternoon 5pm:
Stock dropped 10 % in premarket, then another 7%. To be 17% before the market actually opened.
I wanted to see what happened, as eps and revenue was beaten, so it was suprising that such a big company could be down -15%. This is like penny stocks kind of move.

After listening to the call, I now understand that the price was directly affected by these analysts and this call. Infact it could be 75% affected by this call.
The call
Hare are the participants of the call:
It may have taken place around 4pm ET (unconfirmed) but before market closed.
Intel Company Participants
Trey Campbell – Director, IR Bob Swan – CEO George Davis – CFO
**Participants:**
Vivek Arya – Bank of America C.J. Muse – Evercore John Pitzer – Credit Suisse Ross Seymore – Deutsche Bank Stacy Rasgon – Bernstein Research Timothy Arcuri – UBS Weston Twigg – KeyBanc Capital Markets Srini Pajjuri – SMBC Nikko
Here is the call itself
static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/transcripts_audio/4360453.mp3

SUMMARY
Bob and George speak about positives
############################
See in the earnings call, the first thing that was mentioned is that intel is very soon releasing TIGER LAKE which according to this article is faster than AMD
wccftech.com/intel-tiger-lake-10nm-11th-gen-cpu-benchmarks-leak-out-core-i7-1165g7-vs-amd-ryzen-7-4800u/

They also mentioned datacentre On-Die Interconnect is available
www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/6-pillars/interconnect.html
www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/foundry/emib.html
This helps data move between different compute engines, memory, and I/O and ensure very high low latency. Something which linux struggles with and has to use the same numa nodes to combat this.
AMD doesn’t have this technology. This is very important since the Datacentre industry is worth 23 billion.

They mentioned the delay in 7nm because of yield degradation. But didn’t really elaborate on that.
##########################
Then they talked about:
– Increased revenue over spending
– investing 900 Million, on 160 Billion dollar mobility opportunity
########### cfo ###############
– record revenue up 20%
Datacentre revenue up 34% which is 52% of total revenue
Desktop sales up 9%
47% revenue up in cloud
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The analysts didn’t really buy it.
######## Q & A ############
1st Q – Vivek Arya – Bank of America
Asked about 7nm delay, whats the market implication of that and outsourcing.
– Bob kind of didnt really answer the question and beat around the bush.
George mentioned that they have big demand for 10nm so it won’t affect the market too much. He mentioned that the focus is on global economy because of coronavirus than 7nm.Didn’t really answer the question well.
2nd Q – C.J. Muse – Evercore
Follow up question on 7nm delay, contingency
3rd Q – John Pitzer – Credit Suisse
Follow up question on 7nm delay, and how will INTEL avoid the same mistake.
A: Didnt really answer the question well, just mentioned that they have milestones and will be more pragmatic
4th Q – Ross Seymore – Deutsche Bank
Asked if they can make 7nm the focus.
A: Mentioned that 10nm is a great product. beat about the bush.
5th Q – Stacy Rasgon – Bernstein Research
Asked about the margins of 7nm and 10nm
A: They are growing faster in 5g comms side and had a higher product demand for 10nm.
6th Q – .Timothy Arcuri – UBS
long term implication of outsourcing some of the process technology
7th Q – Weston Twigg – KeyBanc Capital MarketsDatacentre Revenue, decline in Datacentre revenue
Answers: The drop on DCG earnings because of:
– Intel peaked on cloud – Intel peaked on govt – Intel peaked on comms
This is not a good look, I feel that the answer wasn’t really straight forward.

8th Q – Srini Pajjuri – SMBC Nikko
Guidance on q4
A: Expect to be lower.Again not a good look and you can even hear the tone, that Srini wasn’t impressed.
#######################
Basically this call didn’t really leave a good impression on the analysts, I think the -15% is deserved because the CEO and CFO can’t answer questions truthfully, beat about the bush. The expectation for future quarters is low.

The only thing that can save Intel now, is change the CEO and CFO.
I expect the share price to drop to 40.
It really sucks because I hold Intel. Now I have to hold this stock for the next year and put in extra money to cover the stop losses and fees.
There might be a boost with tiger lake but thats about it.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--McDonald’s reports worst global sales in recent memory

McDonald ’ s reports its worst global sales decline in recent memory , with drive-thrus and delivery unable to make @ @ @ @ @ pandemic shutdowns and consumer caution McDonald ’ s CFO Kevin Ozan says in Q2 , @ @ @ @ @ again came through the drive-thru

McDonald’s reports its worst global sales decline in recent memory, with drive-thrus and delivery unable to make up for the blows from pandemic shutdowns and consumer caution
McDonald’s CFO Kevin Ozan says in Q2, nearly 90% of sales again came through the drive-thru
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/mcdonald-s-shares-fall-after-reporting-plunge-in-global-sales?sref=Hny5JH2p


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that an Uber drivers are to be classified as employee under

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that an Uber drivers are to be classified as employee under state law and is entitled to unemployment insurance benefits, because the company exercised “total control” over how he performed his job.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that an Uber Technologies Inc driver was the ride-hailing service ’ s employee under @ @ @ @ @ to unemployment insurance benefits , because the company exercised “ total control ” over how @ @ @ @ @ The court in a 5-2 decision on Friday said the driver , Donald Lowman , @ @ @ @ @ rates or hire others to pick up passengers , so he was not self-employed and @ @ @ @ @ part time for Uber after he lost his job as a behavioral health specialist .

www.reuters.com/article/employment-uber/penn-supreme-court-says-uber-driver-is-employee-entitled-to-unemployment-benefits-idUSL2N2EY239
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that an Uber Technologies Inc driver was the ride-hailing service’s employee under state law and is entitled to unemployment insurance benefits, because the company exercised “total control” over how he performed his job.
The court in a 5-2 decision on Friday said the driver, Donald Lowman, could not set his own rates or hire others to pick up passengers, so he was not self-employed and could collect unemployment despite working part time for Uber after he lost his job as a behavioral health specialist.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Zero long-term rate reflects structural imbalances in the global economy …

Zero long-term rate reflects structural imbalances in the global economy … pic.twitter.com/pvDfOPuao1 But that is wrong A majority of global @ @ @ @ @ to negative rate @ FT article says `` investors blame the Federal Reserve '' .
@ @ @ @ @ not-normal normal We can think of zero/negative long-term rates as symptom of a serious global @ @ @ @ @ and cures of the disease , see t.co/Usy6IujDDm

Zero long-term rate reflects structural imbalances in the global economy … pic.twitter.com/pvDfOPuao1
But that is wrong
A majority of global 60T$ bonds yield near-zero to negative rate @FT article says "investors blame the Federal Reserve". t.co/kRjr7qoW4W
This is the new not-normal normal
We can think of zero/negative long-term rates as symptom of a serious global economic disease
Central banks cannot cure this disease
For possible causes and cures of the disease, see t.co/Usy6IujDDm
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) July 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--John Rubino – When Dollar Falls Everything Falls Everywhere. World on Verge of Spinning Out of Contr

John Rubino – When Dollar Falls Everything Falls Everywhere. World on Verge of Spinning Out of Control

Financial writer John Rubino predicts , “ We don ’ t have a tool to fix this if the dollar starts to fall .
That is the end game scenario in the financial system .
When the world ’ s reserve currency starts to lose value and the central bank that ’ s managing it doesn ’ t have any way to stop it , then , basically , everything falls apart everywhere .
.
.
.
When it happens , the early stage of it will feel like the past few months here .
I am not predicting we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or a fiat currency collapse , but when it happens , it ’ s going to start feeling a lot like it is now.
” In closing , Rubino says , “ The reason why so many groups are so angry right now is because the system no longer works for most people .
We have an aristocracy that is harvesting the rest of us .
1 % of the population gets richer and richer year after year at the expense of everybody else.
” Rubino says look for corrections in the gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretty scary ” but adds , “ This is a buy the dip market .
.
.
.
The long term trend for gold and silver are in place , and nothing is going to stop them short of their ultimate fair value.
” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Rubino , creator of the popular website DollarCollapse.com .
To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here : usawatchdog.com/donations/

John Rubino interviewed on USA Watchdog by Greg Hunter
Financial writer John Rubino predicts, “We don’t have a tool to fix this if the dollar starts to fall. That is the end game scenario in the financial system. When the world’s reserve currency starts to lose value and the central bank that’s managing it doesn’t have any way to stop it, then, basically, everything falls apart everywhere. . . . When it happens, the early stage of it will feel like the past few months here. I am not predicting we are heading straight to a dollar collapse or a fiat currency collapse, but when it happens, it’s going to start feeling a lot like it is now.”
In closing, Rubino says, “The reason why so many groups are so angry right now is because the system no longer works for most people. We have an aristocracy that is harvesting the rest of us. 1% of the population gets richer and richer year after year at the expense of everybody else.”
Rubino says look for corrections in the gold and silver markets that will be “pretty scary” but adds, “This is a buy the dip market . . . . The long term trend for gold and silver are in place, and nothing is going to stop them short of their ultimate fair value.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Rubino, creator of the popular website DollarCollapse.com.
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To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here: usawatchdog.com/donations/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--The 6 CEO’s raked in over $150bn this year. Meanwhile, 110,000+ small businesses are closed for good

The 6 CEO’s raked in over $150bn this year. Meanwhile, 110,000+ small businesses are closed for good.

The big 6 tech companies are 49 % of the Nasdaq .
All 6 rallied during the pandemic & record @ @ @ @ @ 's raked in over $ 150bn this year .
Meanwhile , 110,000+ small businesses are @ @ @ @

The big 6 tech companies are 49% of the Nasdaq. All 6 rallied during the pandemic & record unemployment.
The 6 CEO's raked in over $150bn this year.
Meanwhile, 110,000+ small businesses are closed for good.
Seems Silicon Valley is giving Wall St a run. t.co/Sa8CmCyWkU pic.twitter.com/zr2SnZx3sI
— Nomi Prins (@nomiprins) July 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Dollar value in freefall after endless printing. Asset managers betting against Dollar.

1 .
From the middle & working classes to the affluent 2 .
From the cautious to the reckless 3 @ @ @ @ @ of today to the older people Another look at what influences the US $ .
@ @ @ @ @ % of GDP in white & on right column , DXY in orange & on @ @ @ @ @ budget deficit soon shrink or it wo n't and this relationship continues with the dollar @ @ @ @ @ vote the latter .
pic.twitter.com/ATliePZ7Jd

1. From the middle & working classes to the affluent 2. From the cautious to the reckless 3. From the young people of today to the older people
Another look at what influences the US$. The US budget deficit as % of GDP in white & on right column, DXY in orange & on left column. Will the budget deficit soon shrink or it won't and this relationship continues with the dollar heading further lower? I vote the latter. pic.twitter.com/ATliePZ7Jd
— Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar) July 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--25,000 Stores Will Close in 2020 as World Trade Plummets! Worst Economic Crisis in 100 Years

We are standing on the edge of the precipice .
Unaware of our surroundings , we continue to risk it all .
But those who watch in the distance know that just one gust of wind will be the gentle push to send us falling down .
Today , this is what many people are experiencing : Those who are wholeheartedly facing massive and unlimited risk , and those watching it happen .
The economic data is absolutely horrible .
But the top 5 tech stocks have been performing as if nothing has happened .
Eventually , everything will find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a thread ’ as coronavirus aid expires – BBC News 24 million Americans say they have little to no chance of being able to pay next month ’ s rent 11 million households could be evicted over the next four months Zara owner to close up to 1,200 fashion stores around the world | Retail industry | The Guardian Hertz Has To Sell 182,000 Cars by 2021 ( 29 ) Alastair Williamson on Twitter : “ behind the scenes : a “ massive food bank line ” is what one official told me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alessio Urban on Twitter : “ @ StockBoardAsset Trump on portnoy ’ s interview said that the stock market is that the highs “ we ’ re doing very well ” ” / Twitter Big Tech Goes on Shopping Spree , Brushing Off Antitrust Scrutiny – Bloomberg

We are standing on the edge of the precipice. Unaware of our surroundings, we continue to risk it all. But those who watch in the distance know that just one gust of wind will be the gentle push to send us falling down. Today, this is what many people are experiencing: Those who are wholeheartedly facing massive and unlimited risk, and those watching it happen. The economic data is absolutely horrible. But the top 5 tech stocks have been performing as if nothing has happened. Eventually, everything will find balance.
The millions ‘hanging by a thread’ as coronavirus aid expires – BBC News
www.bbc.com/news/business-53534435
24 million Americans say they have little to no chance of being able to pay next month’s rent
www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/07/24/24-million-americans-say-they-have-little-no-chance-being-able-pay-next-months-rent-eviction/5497764002/
11 million households could be evicted over the next four months
www.fastcompany.com/90532305/11-million-households-could-be-evicted-over-the-next-four-months
Coresight predicts record 25,000 retail stores will close in 2020
www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/coresight-predicts-record-25000-retail-stores-will-close-in-2020.html
Zara owner to close up to 1,200 fashion stores around the world | Retail industry | The Guardian
www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/zara-owner-to-close-up-to-1200-fashion-stores-around-the-world
announced US store closures.jpg (1280×1099)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/announced%20US%20store%20closures.jpg?itok=ixGx1oth
completed store closures.jpg (1280×493)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/completed%20store%20closures.jpg?itok=lVLiaaSe
African Diamond Mining: De Beers Rethinks Business Model – Bloomberg
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www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-24/de-beers-rethinks-business-after-diamond-collapse-exposes-cracks
World trade monitor | CPB.nl
www.cpb.nl/en/worldtrademonitor
Hertz Has To Sell 182,000 Cars by 2021
www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/a33422578/hertz-has-to-sell-182000-cars-by-2021/
Workers are leaving the restaurant industry
www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/workforce/workers-are-leaving-restaurant-industry?utm_source=Marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NL_RB_Whats_Trending_07-26-20&LID=15687345&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWWprNE5HRTJaR1JpTkdObCIsInQiOiI4cXBuOTJ5V2NlMHBCQTE5K1NNcTAyNWE4MFcyTUlWMWRiN210YkNzTktjSlQ5UExIOUdzZEdEMncyNnk4elpHMkRUU053eFQxQnEycTdLVXArRTY0RmVOYVhyS3VMXC9MVklaMmRJeFJGb3VaNVUxMFJlRmpGeU5Fa3JvdEhmQzgifQ%3D%3D
(29) Alastair Williamson on Twitter: “behind the scenes: a “massive food bank line” is what one official told me t.co/MPktSSx46Y” / Twitter
twitter.com/StockBoardAsset/status/1287360079004606464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1287360079004606464%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fus-recovery-stalls-food-bank-lines-reemerge
(29) Alessio Urban on Twitter: “@StockBoardAsset Trump on portnoy’s interview said that the stock market is that the highs “we’re doing very well”” / Twitter
twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1287365053004615680
Big Tech Goes on Shopping Spree, Brushing Off Antitrust Scrutiny – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-27/big-tech-goes-on-shopping-spree-brushing-off-antitrust-scrutiny
fed balance sheet 20 trillion.jpg (718×429)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20balance%20sheet%2020%20trillion.jpg?itok=3G8InL8W


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Google vs. Duck Duck Go: wildly different results.

This will be of little surprise to most of you , but Google drastically alters search results to fit the @ @ @ @ @ countless examples of Google doing this , and this post is not the first one @ @ @ @ @ I just want to show you one example that I found kind of interesting .
@ @ @ @ @ when you search “ antifa shooting people ” : These are the Duck Duck Go @ @ @ @ @ antifa shooting people ” : The purpose of this post is to remind you not @ @ @ @ @ subtle doctoring of information can have .
It ’ s easy to shape the views @ @ @ @ @ and Google is getting very good at doing just that .
How is somebody to @ @ @ @ @ own ?
Google is a fantastic service for finding out practical information .
I would @ @ @ @ @ it shape my opinion about this kind of stuff though .

by EatenAliveByWolves
This will be of little surprise to most of you, but Google drastically alters search results to fit the current narrative. There are countless examples of Google doing this, and this post is not the first one on r/conspiracy highlighting this. I just want to show you one example that I found kind of interesting.

These are the google results when you search “antifa shooting people”:
www.google.com/search?q=antifa+shooting+people&rlz=1C1SQJL_enCA855CA855&oq=antifa+shooting+people&aqs=chrome..69i57.7606j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!

These are the Duck Duck Go results when you search “antifa shooting people”:
duckduckgo.com/?q=antifa+shooting+people&t=hk&ia=web
The purpose of this post is to remind you not to underestimate the power that subtle doctoring of information can have. It’s easy to shape the views of an average human, and Google is getting very good at doing just that. How is somebody to know what thoughts are his/her own?
Google is a fantastic service for finding out practical information. I would be careful not to let it shape my opinion about this kind of stuff though.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--USA about to unveil ugliest GDP report ever recorded…  GOLDMAN: Spike in gold puts dollar reserve st

USA about to unveil ugliest GDP report ever recorded…  GOLDMAN: Spike in gold puts dollar reserve status in question

USA About to Unveil Ugliest GDP Report Ever Recorded… Half jobs lost may be gone permanently… Unfortunately , rising joblessness could coincide with the end of the $ 600 weekly unemployment boost that ’ s been keeping millions of Americans afloat these past few months .
That $ 600 boost , which March ’ s CARES Act provided for , expires at the end of July , but because of the way states pay their unemployment benefits on a weekly cycle , for most jobless folks , it ’ s actually already gone .
The COVID-19 outbreak has clearly done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plunging it deep into a recession and sending unemployment levels skyrocketing .
In fact , jobless claims reached a record high in April , and while things improved slightly in May and June , new restrictions could send the unemployment rate even higher in the coming months .
A record high price for gold , known as the currency of last resort , is raising questions about the U.S. dollar ’ s future as the world ’ s reserve currency , according to a Goldman Sachs research note published Tuesday .
The commodity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during economic uncertainty , reached an unprecedented price of $ 1,943 an ounce this week , in part because of record-low interest rates that Goldman Sachs analysts said may demonstrate a stronger appetite for inflation at the Federal Reserve .
“ Combined with a record level of debt accumulation by the US government , real concerns around the longevity of the US dollar as a reserve currency have started to emerge , ” the analysts wrote .
The idea that the dollar may one day be seen as less of a safe currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s reserve currency , a position that has given the U.S. financial system a tremendous advantage in global financial markets for decades .

USA About to Unveil Ugliest GDP Report Ever Recorded…
Half jobs lost may be gone permanently…
Unfortunately, rising joblessness could coincide with the end of the $600 weekly unemployment boost that’s been keeping millions of Americans afloat these past few months. That $600 boost, which March’s CARES Act provided for, expires at the end of July, but because of the way states pay their unemployment benefits on a weekly cycle, for most jobless folks, it’s actually already gone.
The COVID-19 outbreak has clearly done a number of the U.S. economy, plunging it deep into a recession and sending unemployment levels skyrocketing. In fact, jobless claims reached a record high in April, and while things improved slightly in May and June, new restrictions could send the unemployment rate even higher in the coming months.
GOLDMAN: Spike in gold puts dollar reserve status in question
A record high price for gold, known as the currency of last resort, is raising questions about the U.S. dollar’s future as the world’s reserve currency, according to a Goldman Sachs research note published Tuesday.
The commodity, which tends to see increased demand during economic uncertainty, reached an unprecedented price of $1,943 an ounce this week, in part because of record-low interest rates that Goldman Sachs analysts said may demonstrate a stronger appetite for inflation at the Federal Reserve.
“Combined with a record level of debt accumulation by the US government, real concerns around the longevity of the US dollar as a reserve currency have started to emerge,” the analysts wrote.
The idea that the dollar may one day be seen as less of a safe currency jeopardizes its role as the world’s reserve currency, a position that has given the U.S. financial system a tremendous advantage in global financial markets for decades.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--MEANWHILE CHINA:“If USA dares to deploy THAAD systems or F-35 fighter jets in Taiwan, it will be the

MEANWHILE CHINA:“If USA dares to deploy THAAD systems or F-35 fighter jets in Taiwan, it will be the day China’s PLA liberates Taiwan”

US-China Military Conflict “ Highly Likely ” To “ Almost Certain ” Over Next 3 Years A top independent Australia-based @ @ @ @ @ the Canberra government has produced a “ risk assessment ” studying the likelihood of America @ @ @ @ @ .
Involving defense experts around the world , the study was undertaken on the heels @ @ @ @ @ carrier strike groups to sail through the South China Sea in provocative “ freedom of @ @ @ @

US-China Military Conflict “Highly Likely” To “Almost Certain” Over Next 3 Years
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A top independent Australia-based think tank which regularly advises the Canberra government has produced a “risk assessment” studying the likelihood of America and China going to war. Involving defense experts around the world, the study was undertaken on the heels of the US sending two carrier strike groups to sail through the South China Sea in provocative “freedom of navigation” operations.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Trump: Rioters attacking Portland Federal Courthouse will now get 10 years in prison

Anarchists , Agitators or Protestors who vandalize or damage our Federal Courthouse in Portland , or any Federal Buildings in @ @ @ @ @ States , will be prosecuted under our recently re-enacted Statues & Monuments Act .
MINIMUM @ @ @ @ @ Don ’ t do it !
@ DHSgov

Anarchists, Agitators or Protestors who vandalize or damage our Federal Courthouse in Portland, or any Federal Buildings in any of our Cities or States, will be prosecuted under our recently re-enacted Statues & Monuments Act. MINIMUM TEN YEARS IN PRISON. Don’t do it! @DHSgov
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 27, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Scientists revive 100 million-year-old microbes from the sea

Japanese scientists say they have revived microbes that were in a dormant state for more than 100 million years .
@ @ @ @ @ in the South Pacific seabed – in sediment that is poor in nutrients , but @ @ @ @ @ them to live .
Microbes are among the earth ’ s simplest organisms , and @ @ @ @ @ environments where more developed life forms can not survive .
After incubation by the scientists @ @ @ @ @ eat and multiply .
The research was led by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science @ @ @ @ @ the journal Nature Communications .

Japanese scientists say they have revived microbes that were in a dormant state for more than 100 million years.
The tiny organisms had survived in the South Pacific seabed – in sediment that is poor in nutrients, but has enough oxygen to allow them to live.
Microbes are among the earth’s simplest organisms, and some can live in extreme environments where more developed life forms cannot survive.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
After incubation by the scientists, the microbes began to eat and multiply.
The research was led by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and published in the journal Nature Communications.
www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53575103?at_custom1=%5Bpost%20type%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom4=975C73E2-D10C-11EA-858E-D67996E8478F&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=@BBCWorld


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Twitter Has Achieved Publisher Status!

Twitter Has Achieved Publisher Status!

As seen in this tweet : Twitter is truly a publisher now , how do we take this to court , if trump wont the people should .
“ What Happens if the Law Starts Treating Facebook and Twitter Like Traditional Publishers ?
The little-known provision that empowers tech companies to experiment with new ways of imposing and enforcing norms on new sites of discourse could be changed.
” Twitter and Facebook Are Publishers , Not Platforms – “ The changing definition of the word “ platform ” has been galling me .
In the classic sense , and insofar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is ( from the Oxford English Dictionary ) “ a standard for the hardware of a computer system , which determines what kinds of software it can run.
” OpinionsFor various legal and marketing reasons , the word platform has taken on all sorts of other meanings which boil down to “ a neutral place we set up but are not responsible for anything that goes on there , but we keep the money.
” Twitter , Facebook , Instagram , and Snapchat all come to mind.
” Twitter Is Not a Platform @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve always thought that Twitter and Facebook , once they started serving up tweets and posts using an algorithm had become publishers : once you are deciding what people will see for whatever reason–and an algorithm is just the computational form of that–you are no longer just a messenger board .
That is , if Twitter and Facebook dropped the algorithm and returned to latest posts or tweets , it would be much harder to hold them legally** liable for their content .
In essence , they would just be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or ‘ good ’ ) user interface.
” Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

As seen in this tweet:
Don Jr locked out t.co/RPtHg1WNlF — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) July 28, 2020
Twitter is truly a publisher now, how do we take this to court, if trump wont the people should.
“What Happens if the Law Starts Treating Facebook and Twitter Like Traditional Publishers?
The little-known provision that empowers tech companies to experiment with new ways of imposing and enforcing norms on new sites of discourse could be changed.”
Twitter and Facebook Are Publishers, Not Platforms – “The changing definition of the word “platform” has been galling me. In the classic sense, and insofar as technology is concerned, a platform is (from the Oxford English Dictionary) “a standard for the hardware of a computer system, which determines what kinds of software it can run.”
OpinionsFor various legal and marketing reasons, the word platform has taken on all sorts of other meanings which boil down to “a neutral place we set up but are not responsible for anything that goes on there, but we keep the money.” Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat all come to mind.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Twitter Is Not a Platform, It Is a Publisher – “I’ve always thought that Twitter and Facebook, once they started serving up tweets and posts using an algorithm had become publishers: once you are deciding what people will see for whatever reason–and an algorithm is just the computational form of that–you are no longer just a messenger board. That is, if Twitter and Facebook dropped the algorithm and returned to latest posts or tweets, it would be much harder to hold them legally** liable for their content. In essence, they would just be a very advanced server with a good (or ‘good’) user interface.”
h/t Ozamandias
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-29--Martial Law Is Unacceptable Regardless Of The Circumstances

Back in 2014 , hundreds if not thousands of conservatives and liberty movement activists converged on a farm in rural Clark County , Nevada .
The purpose was to protest the incursion of federal government agents onto the property of the Bundy family , who had defied pressure from the Bureau of Land Management to stop allowing their cattle to feed on “ federal land ” in a form of free ranging .
It was a practice that had been going on for decades and one that was required for the Bundy farm to survive , ended abruptly by environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ family had been improving on the area with aquifers and other measures for generations without interference .
The claim by the BLM and other agencies was that the farmers were destroying wildlife habitat with their cattle , yet the Bundy ’ s land improvements had actually allowed wildlife to THRIVE in areas where animals would find life difficult or impossible otherwise .
The federal government became fixated on the Bundy ’ s , and decided to make an example out of them .
Their defiance of the crackdown on their use of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including their cattle impounded , their farm being surrounded and sniper teams placed in the hills nearby .
The liberty movement saw this as the last straw , and so reacted at a grassroots level .
The concern was that Bundy Ranch could become another Waco .
They locked and loaded and went to defend the Bundy ’ s .
I completely agreed at the time with the efforts surrounding Bundy Ranch and I still agree with them today .
The federal government had overstepped its bounds on multiple occasions when it came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone had finally had enough .
The feds were faced with a group of armed liberty movement members and eventually ran away .
They even gave the Bundy ’ s back the cattle the feds had initially tried to confiscate .
This event showcased the power of the people to repel tyranny when necessary .
The claim that the public is impotent against government force was summarily trounced .
The action was not perfect , and there were many internal disputes and a plethora of mistakes , but overall it had achieved its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the establishment that if you try to assert unconstitutional force against the citizenry there is a chance a Bundy Ranch scenario might happen again , and next time it might not simply be a defensive measure .
I mention Bundy Ranch because I want to remind conservatives of their roots .
We are a constitutional movement .
We are a small government movement .
We believe in individual rights , states rights and the 10th Amendment , as well as strict limitations placed on the federal government and state governments when they try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you don ’ t believe in these things , you are not a conservative or a constitutionalist .
No government , whether state or federal , supersedes the boundaries placed upon them by the constitution .
Once they violate those boundaries , they must be put in check by the citizenry , for the constitution is merely an object that represents an ideal .
It can ’ t defend itself .
If a government undermines constitutional protections , it is not a failure of the constitution , it is a failure by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are “ conservatives ” out there who supported the efforts at Bundy Ranch in 2014 , but are now calling for federal overreach and martial law today .
The very same people who argued vehemently against unconstitutional actions back then are arguing for bending or breaking the rules of the constitution now .
This is something I have been warning about for years… The greatest threat to freedom is not the government , extreme leftists or the globalist cabal ; the greatest threat is when freedom fighters foresake their own principles and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefit them in the moment .
If freedom fighters stop fighting for freedom , who remains pick up the mantle ?
No one .
And thus , the globalists and collectivists win the long game .
Right now there are two sides calling for martial law-like restrictions on the public , and both sides think they are doing what is best for society at large .
They both believe they are morally justified and that totalitarian actions are necessary for “ the greater good ” .
Both sides are wrong .
On one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up primarily of political leftists but also some conservatives who say that the coronavius pandemic creates a scenario in which medical tyranny must be established to protect the public from itself .
Leftists enjoy control in general and the pandemic simply offers an opportunity for them to act out their totalitarian fantasies in real life .
These are the people who wag their fingers at others on the street or in the park or at the beach for not “ social distancing ” properly .
These are the people that inform on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for not following strict guidelines .
These are the people that get a thrill from forcing other people to conform .
This is not to say that precautions are not warranted , they certainly are .
However , these precautions MUST be up to individuals , not enforced by bureaucracy .
The moment you hand government ultimate power to dictate people ’ s health decisions , personal daily activities , freedom of assembly and their ability to participate in the economy , you have given the government ultimate power to destroy our very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have that kind of influence .
The issue here is one of the greater EVIL , not the greater good .
What is the greater evil ?
To avoid unconstitutional measures , avoid violating individual rights and allow the virus to spread faster than it normally would ?
Or , to completely throw out the Bill of Rights , individual liberty and economic security in the name of a brand of “ safety ” that is ambiguous and undefined ?
As I write this , the state of New Jersey among others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that defy lockdown orders .
NJ just arrested the owners of a gymnasium in Bellmawr who refused to close down .
Even though they used social distancing measures and applied their own guidelines , the state has decided that citizens are children that must be controlled rather than adults that can make their own choices .
This sets a dangerous precedence for the whole country .
Understand that small businesses that are not deemed “ essential ” by arbitrary decree from the state are on the verge of bankruptcy and collapse .
Millions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the lockdowns .
Millions of jobs are at risk .
Is the coronavirus really worth destroying our own economic system ?
Because that is EXACTLY what is happening right now .
The US economy was already suffering from destabilization , and now the pandemic response is putting the final nail in the coffin .
If the economy tanks far more people will die from the resulting crisis of poverty , crime and civil unrest than will EVER die from the coronavirus pandemic .
When you look at the big picture , how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law measures ?
There is simply no logical explanation for violating the economic and personal freedom of Americans in response to a disease .
If some people die from the virus , so be it .
Its a small price to pay to keep our freedoms intact .
Furthermore , I would stand by that argument even if I get sick from the virus .
There are people out there that like constitutional rights and civil liberties “ in theory ” , but in practice they view these rights as inconvenient to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” , the Bill of Rights is only for peacetime .
When war or domestic conflict rolls around , our rights are suddenly forfeit .
I use this particular metaphor often but I really can ’ t find a better one : Government power is like the “ one ring ” in Lord Of The Rings .
Everyone desperately wants control of it .
The side of evil thirsts for it .
The side of good thinks that if only they had it they could use it for honorable ends ; they think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They are wrong .
The “ one ring ” ( government power ) corrupts ALL .
It can not be controlled .
It can not be used for good .
Eventually , it warps the minds of those who hold it , twisting them into something grotesque .
Good people who exploit the ring end up becoming the very monsters they were trying to defeat , and evil wins .
Right now through the Trump Administration conservatives are being tempted with the “ one ring ” .
We are being tempted with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and their actions are egregious .
They act irrationally and foolishly .
Their communist ideology and mindless zealotry is destructive and they openly seek the collapse of western civilization .
But in the end this doesn ’ t matter .
They are nothing more than useful idiots for a greater agenda .
It ’ s interesting that the only solution I see being presented in conservative circles lately is the use of federal power to crush the protests and riots .
Again , this might seem like a reasonable action in the face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taken too far the implications are horrifying .
Some conservative groups are cheering the deployment of federal agencies to cities like Portland in the name of stopping civil unrest , but there is a fine line between law enforcement and martial law .
And by martial law , I mean ANY government force that is designed to suppress or break civil protections .
This does not only include a military presence , it can also include federal agencies overstepping their bounds , just as they did at Bundy Ranch .
In Portland and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agents and police have been snatching protesters off the street in unmarked vans without identifying themselves .
Essentially , they are black-bagging people .
This is the kind of behavior which real conservatives traditionally despise .
Yes , some of these protesters did in fact loot or participate in property damage ; and some of them did absolutely nothing .
This is being done under 40 US Code 1315 which was signed into law by Neo-con president George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks as part of the tidal wave of unconstitutional Patriot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mass fear and panic .
Conservatives have been warning for years about the potential for misuse of these laws to violate people ’ s rights .
Will we now support them because they are being enforced against people we don ’ t like ?
I will say this : If an unmarked van with unidentified armed people tried to grab me off the street , I would do everything in my power to put a bullet in each and every one of them .
And , I would not hold it against any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if they were my ideological opponent .
Some conservatives are calling for much more , including the deployment of the National Guard or a standing military presence .
The use of such tactics opens the door to serious consequences , and I believe if we allow the federal government to bend the rules now , we set the stage for expansive martial law in the near future .
By extension , labeling looters or rioters as “ terrorists ” also has dangerous implications .
Those of us that were activists during the Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thrown around by government and the media .
We might feel righteous in violating the civil liberties of social justice Marxists because of their insane behavior and the threat they pose to the stability of the country , but , what happens when the roles are reversed ?
During Bundy Ranch , conservatives were also being labeled “ terrorists ” , and who is to say we won ’ t find ourselves in that position again ?
Would defying the pandemic lockdowns also be considered an existential threat to the country ?
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are either not being asked or are being deliberately avoided .
For example : 1 ) Why is it that the Trump Administration has not bothered to go after the elites and globalists FUNDING Antifa and BLM groups behind the unrest ?
Why does George Soros and his Open Society Foundation get to operate in the US with impunity ?
And what about the Ford Foundation ?
Members of that institution openly admit that they have been funding and organizing the social justice cult for decades .
Shouldn ’ t the men @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing be targeted first , instead of going after the useful idiots ?
Perhaps the fact that Trump is surrounded by those very same elites in his cabinet has something to do with it… 2 ) If we support martial law measures , WHO are we giving that power to ?
Is it Trump , or the deep state ghouls that advise him daily ?
People like Wilber Ross , a New York Rothschild banking agent , Mike Pompeo , a long time Neo-con warmonger and promoter of mass surveillance , Robert Lightheizer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On Foreign Relations , Steve Mnuchin , former Goldman Sachs banker , Larry Kudlow , former Federal Reserve , etc .
Even if you think Trump has the best of intentions , can anyone honestly say the same for his cabinet ?
3 ) When the left is “ defeated ” and the riots stop , will martial law simply fade away , or , is it a Pandora ’ s Box that can never be closed again ?
And if it doesn ’ t end , will supporters justify fighting against not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not tolerate it ?
I for one will be among the people that will not tolerate it .
There are other much better solutions than martial law when confronting the leftist riots or the pandemic .
For the pandemic , stop trying to dictate public behavior .
If individuals feel they are at risk from the virus , then they can take their own precautions .
The only other option is to continue on the path of shutdowns and an informant society that will destroy this nation in a matter of months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stage an armed presence in the face of protests have ALL escaped riots and property damage .
Sometimes Antifa and BLM decide to not even show up .
We DON ’ T NEED a federal presence or a military presence to get the job done .
We can do it ourselves .
We already have proof that this strategy works .
And , if the lefties want to burn down their own neighborhoods and cities and local governments don ’ t want to stop them , then I say let it happen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in these places that had no dog in the fight , but maybe this will teach the locals to speak out against BLM or Antifa instead of remaining silent or virtue signaling their support in the hopes that their businesses won ’ t be attacked .
Maybe they should look for better government officials as well .
Finally , it ’ s far past time to go after the elites that fund and engineer such groups .
Remove their influence and I suspect many people will be shocked at how fast all this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t this what people wanted Trump to do from the very beginning ?
And yet , nothing happens to the vampires at the top .
Only cowards demand everyone else give up their freedoms just so they can feel safe .
The establishment is trying to pit the American people against each other as a means to pave a path to tyranny .
I believe what the elites want more than anything else is to trick conservatives into forsaking their own principles .
If we do , we become hypocrites that can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
By becoming the monster to fight the monster we hand our enemies victory .
This is unacceptable .
If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda , subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch .
Learn more about it HERE .
After 8 long years of ultra-loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve , it ’ s no secret that inflation is primed to soar .
If your IRA or 401 ( k ) is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s critical to act now !
That ’ s why thousands of Americans are moving their retirement into a Gold IRA .
Learn how you can too with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group .
It reveals the little-known IRS Tax Law to move your IRA or 401 ( k ) into gold .
Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold .
You can contact Brandon Smith at : Or , follow me at Parler by searching : @ Altmarket

Back in 2014, hundreds if not thousands of conservatives and liberty movement activists converged on a farm in rural Clark County, Nevada. The purpose was to protest the incursion of federal government agents onto the property of the Bundy family, who had defied pressure from the Bureau of Land Management to stop allowing their cattle to feed on “federal land” in a form of free ranging. It was a practice that had been going on for decades and one that was required for the Bundy farm to survive, ended abruptly by environmental laws protecting a tortoise.
The Bundy family had been improving on the area with aquifers and other measures for generations without interference. The claim by the BLM and other agencies was that the farmers were destroying wildlife habitat with their cattle, yet the Bundy’s land improvements had actually allowed wildlife to THRIVE in areas where animals would find life difficult or impossible otherwise.
The federal government became fixated on the Bundy’s, and decided to make an example out of them. Their defiance of the crackdown on their use of the land was met with extreme measures, including their cattle impounded, their farm being surrounded and sniper teams placed in the hills nearby. The liberty movement saw this as the last straw, and so reacted at a grassroots level. The concern was that Bundy Ranch could become another Waco. They locked and loaded and went to defend the Bundy’s.
I completely agreed at the time with the efforts surrounding Bundy Ranch and I still agree with them today. The federal government had overstepped its bounds on multiple occasions when it came to rural farmers in sagebrush country and everyone had finally had enough. The feds were faced with a group of armed liberty movement members and eventually ran away. They even gave the Bundy’s back the cattle the feds had initially tried to confiscate. This event showcased the power of the people to repel tyranny when necessary.
The claim that the public is impotent against government force was summarily trounced. The action was not perfect, and there were many internal disputes and a plethora of mistakes, but overall it had achieved its goal. It sent a message to the establishment that if you try to assert unconstitutional force against the citizenry there is a chance a Bundy Ranch scenario might happen again, and next time it might not simply be a defensive measure.
I mention Bundy Ranch because I want to remind conservatives of their roots. We are a constitutional movement. We are a small government movement. We believe in individual rights, states rights and the 10th Amendment, as well as strict limitations placed on the federal government and state governments when they try to violate the Bill of Rights. If you don’t believe in these things, you are not a conservative or a constitutionalist.
No government, whether state or federal, supersedes the boundaries placed upon them by the constitution. Once they violate those boundaries, they must be put in check by the citizenry, for the constitution is merely an object that represents an ideal. It can’t defend itself. If a government undermines constitutional protections, it is not a failure of the constitution, it is a failure by the public to act.
Sadly, there are “conservatives” out there who supported the efforts at Bundy Ranch in 2014, but are now calling for federal overreach and martial law today. The very same people who argued vehemently against unconstitutional actions back then are arguing for bending or breaking the rules of the constitution now. This is something I have been warning about for years…
The greatest threat to freedom is not the government, extreme leftists or the globalist cabal; the greatest threat is when freedom fighters foresake their own principles and start rationalizing tyranny because it happens to benefit them in the moment. If freedom fighters stop fighting for freedom, who remains pick up the mantle? No one. And thus, the globalists and collectivists win the long game.
Right now there are two sides calling for martial law-like restrictions on the public, and both sides think they are doing what is best for society at large. They both believe they are morally justified and that totalitarian actions are necessary for “the greater good”. Both sides are wrong.
The Pandemic Puritans
On one side, we have a group made up primarily of political leftists but also some conservatives who say that the coronavius pandemic creates a scenario in which medical tyranny must be established to protect the public from itself. Leftists enjoy control in general and the pandemic simply offers an opportunity for them to act out their totalitarian fantasies in real life.
These are the people who wag their fingers at others on the street or in the park or at the beach for not “social distancing” properly. These are the people that inform on their neighbors, or inform on local businesses for not following strict guidelines. These are the people that get a thrill from forcing other people to conform.
This is not to say that precautions are not warranted, they certainly are. However, these precautions MUST be up to individuals, not enforced by bureaucracy. The moment you hand government ultimate power to dictate people’s health decisions, personal daily activities, freedom of assembly and their ability to participate in the economy, you have given the government ultimate power to destroy our very culture. No government should be allowed to have that kind of influence.
The issue here is one of the greater EVIL, not the greater good. What is the greater evil? To avoid unconstitutional measures, avoid violating individual rights and allow the virus to spread faster than it normally would? Or, to completely throw out the Bill of Rights, individual liberty and economic security in the name of a brand of “safety” that is ambiguous and undefined?
As I write this, the state of New Jersey among others is implementing a draconian response against businesses that defy lockdown orders. NJ just arrested the owners of a gymnasium in Bellmawr who refused to close down. Even though they used social distancing measures and applied their own guidelines, the state has decided that citizens are children that must be controlled rather than adults that can make their own choices. This sets a dangerous precedence for the whole country.
Understand that small businesses that are not deemed “essential” by arbitrary decree from the state are on the verge of bankruptcy and collapse. Millions of people are having their livelihoods threatened by the lockdowns. Millions of jobs are at risk. Is the coronavirus really worth destroying our own economic system? Because that is EXACTLY what is happening right now. The US economy was already suffering from destabilization, and now the pandemic response is putting the final nail in the coffin.
If the economy tanks far more people will die from the resulting crisis of poverty, crime and civil unrest than will EVER die from the coronavirus pandemic. When you look at the big picture, how can anyone justify medical tyranny and martial law measures? There is simply no logical explanation for violating the economic and personal freedom of Americans in response to a disease. If some people die from the virus, so be it. Its a small price to pay to keep our freedoms intact. Furthermore, I would stand by that argument even if I get sick from the virus.
Sock Puppet Conservatives
There are people out there that like constitutional rights and civil liberties “in theory”, but in practice they view these rights as inconvenient to their goals. For these so-called “conservatives”, the Bill of Rights is only for peacetime. When war or domestic conflict rolls around, our rights are suddenly forfeit.
I use this particular metaphor often but I really can’t find a better one:
Government power is like the “one ring” in Lord Of The Rings. Everyone desperately wants control of it. The side of evil thirsts for it. The side of good thinks that if only they had it they could use it for honorable ends; they think they can use it to defeat evil. They are wrong.
The “one ring” (government power) corrupts ALL. It cannot be controlled. It cannot be used for good. Eventually, it warps the minds of those who hold it, twisting them into something grotesque. Good people who exploit the ring end up becoming the very monsters they were trying to defeat, and evil wins.
Right now through the Trump Administration conservatives are being tempted with the “one ring”. We are being tempted with ultimate government power. The leftist hordes and their actions are egregious. They act irrationally and foolishly. Their communist ideology and mindless zealotry is destructive and they openly seek the collapse of western civilization. But in the end this doesn’t matter. They are nothing more than useful idiots for a greater agenda.
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It’s interesting that the only solution I see being presented in conservative circles lately is the use of federal power to crush the protests and riots. Again, this might seem like a reasonable action in the face of so much lawlessness, but if taken too far the implications are horrifying.
Some conservative groups are cheering the deployment of federal agencies to cities like Portland in the name of stopping civil unrest, but there is a fine line between law enforcement and martial law. And by martial law, I mean ANY government force that is designed to suppress or break civil protections. This does not only include a military presence, it can also include federal agencies overstepping their bounds, just as they did at Bundy Ranch.
In Portland and other cities like New York, federal agents and police have been snatching protesters off the street in unmarked vans without identifying themselves. Essentially, they are black-bagging people. This is the kind of behavior which real conservatives traditionally despise.
Yes, some of these protesters did in fact loot or participate in property damage; and some of them did absolutely nothing. This is being done under 40 US Code 1315 which was signed into law by Neo-con president George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks as part of the tidal wave of unconstitutional Patriot Act measures that were railroaded through during mass fear and panic.
Conservatives have been warning for years about the potential for misuse of these laws to violate people’s rights. Will we now support them because they are being enforced against people we don’t like? I will say this: If an unmarked van with unidentified armed people tried to grab me off the street, I would do everything in my power to put a bullet in each and every one of them. And, I would not hold it against any person who did the same, even if they were my ideological opponent.
Some conservatives are calling for much more, including the deployment of the National Guard or a standing military presence. The use of such tactics opens the door to serious consequences, and I believe if we allow the federal government to bend the rules now, we set the stage for expansive martial law in the near future. By extension, labeling looters or rioters as “terrorists” also has dangerous implications. Those of us that were activists during the Obama years know how freely that label is thrown around by government and the media.
We might feel righteous in violating the civil liberties of social justice Marxists because of their insane behavior and the threat they pose to the stability of the country, but, what happens when the roles are reversed? During Bundy Ranch, conservatives were also being labeled “terrorists”, and who is to say we won’t find ourselves in that position again? Would defying the pandemic lockdowns also be considered an existential threat to the country?
Uncomfortable Questions
There are some questions in all of this that are either not being asked or are being deliberately avoided. For example:
1) Why is it that the Trump Administration has not bothered to go after the elites and globalists FUNDING Antifa and BLM groups behind the unrest? Why does George Soros and his Open Society Foundation get to operate in the US with impunity? And what about the Ford Foundation? Members of that institution openly admit that they have been funding and organizing the social justice cult for decades. Shouldn’t the men behind the curtain paying for the entire thing be targeted first, instead of going after the useful idiots? Perhaps the fact that Trump is surrounded by those very same elites in his cabinet has something to do with it…
2) If we support martial law measures, WHO are we giving that power to? Is it Trump, or the deep state ghouls that advise him daily? People like Wilber Ross, a New York Rothschild banking agent, Mike Pompeo, a long time Neo-con warmonger and promoter of mass surveillance, Robert Lightheizer, a member of the globalist Council On Foreign Relations, Steve Mnuchin, former Goldman Sachs banker, Larry Kudlow, former Federal Reserve, etc. Even if you think Trump has the best of intentions, can anyone honestly say the same for his cabinet?
3) When the left is “defeated” and the riots stop, will martial law simply fade away, or, is it a Pandora’s Box that can never be closed again? And if it doesn’t end, will supporters justify fighting against not just leftists, but also conservatives who will not tolerate it? I for one will be among the people that will not tolerate it.
Real Solutions
There are other much better solutions than martial law when confronting the leftist riots or the pandemic.
For the pandemic, stop trying to dictate public behavior. If individuals feel they are at risk from the virus, then they can take their own precautions. The only other option is to continue on the path of shutdowns and an informant society that will destroy this nation in a matter of months.
Foe the leftists, communities that stage an armed presence in the face of protests have ALL escaped riots and property damage. Sometimes Antifa and BLM decide to not even show up. We DON’T NEED a federal presence or a military presence to get the job done. We can do it ourselves. We already have proof that this strategy works.
And, if the lefties want to burn down their own neighborhoods and cities and local governments don’t want to stop them, then I say let it happen. It’s sad for the people in these places that had no dog in the fight, but maybe this will teach the locals to speak out against BLM or Antifa instead of remaining silent or virtue signaling their support in the hopes that their businesses won’t be attacked. Maybe they should look for better government officials as well.
Finally, it’s far past time to go after the elites that fund and engineer such groups. Remove their influence and I suspect many people will be shocked at how fast all this unrest and chaos suddenly disappears. Isn’t this what people wanted Trump to do from the very beginning? And yet, nothing happens to the vampires at the top.
Only cowards demand everyone else give up their freedoms just so they can feel safe. The establishment is trying to pit the American people against each other as a means to pave a path to tyranny. I believe what the elites want more than anything else is to trick conservatives into forsaking their own principles. If we do, we become hypocrites that can no longer sustain a movement for freedom. By becoming the monster to fight the monster we hand our enemies victory. This is unacceptable.
If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE.
After 8 long years of ultra-loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, it’s no secret that inflation is primed to soar. If your IRA or 401(k) is exposed to this threat, it’s critical to act now! That’s why thousands of Americans are moving their retirement into a Gold IRA. Learn how you can too with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals the little-known IRS Tax Law to move your IRA or 401(k) into gold. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.
You can contact Brandon Smith at:
brandon@alt-market.com
Or, follow me at Parler by searching: @Altmarket