investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Godfrey Bloom: “The great central banking experiment has failed.”

These days , most mainstream news reports are being monopolized by the pandemic , the covid vaccine and all the new rules and lockdowns that are being enforced across the Western world , and this near-obsessive focus comes at the expense of a lot other important developments .
The last story that managed to “ dethrone ” covid from the headlines was the US Presidential election , and even that reporting was largely through the prism of the pandemic .
And yet , the earth hasn ’ t actually stopped spinning and hugely important geopolitical and economic shifts are still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , especially for investors .
Chief among them is Brexit now : the long-awaited , much-debated and endlessly negotiated “ divorce ” between the UK and the EU .
After what seems like an eternity of official talks , political promises , countless deadlines and a lot of media fear-mongering , the majority of the British people who voted to leave the EU now finally hope to see their wish materialize .
However , that hope is dimmed by the vast systemic opposition , by political horse-trading and by negotiations and compromises that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ symbolic and ceremonial gesture .
The timing of it is also crucial .
There ’ s a lot of pressure in the country , especially felt by small business owners and the millions that they used to employ .
As a direct result of the lockdowns , the restrictions and the uncertainty over the rules and policies that change frequently and often quite inexplicably , the economy is on life support , barely kept afloat by massive money printing and spending .
Given the complexity of the predicament that Britain currently finds itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions about where it might be headed and why .
I shared them all with my friend Godfrey Bloom , whose ability to speak plainly and cut through the nonsense I have found to be especially illuminating when it comes to complicated issues and tangled affairs .
In response , he outlined his thoughts and outlook in the article below , touching on all the consequential developments and forces that are shaping the nation ’ s future and explaining their impact .
Before entering the world of politics in 2004 , Godfrey Bloom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forty years and won fixed interest investment prizes .
He served as a Member of the European Parliament ( MEP ) for a decade and became widely known as a vocal opponent of government regulation and centralization .
A firm euro-skeptic , Bloom was also heavily involved in the Brexit “ Leave ” campaign as an independent activist .
He is an Associate Member of the Royal College of Defense Studies , holds the Territorial Decoration , Sovereign ’ s Medal , European Parliamentary Medal and Westminster Armed Forces Parliamentary Medal .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to his credit .
He is married to one of Europe ’ s leading equine physiotherapists .
Having attained age seventy last year , I believed it would not be likely I would experience anything new in the way of politics or economics .
Just more of the same but perhaps in a mutated form .
How wrong I was .
Yet it is not shocks to the world economies that is new , but government responses .
There will always be shocks , it is the way of humankind .
They usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ condemn millions of young men to fruitless death , while governments take away more and more freedom from ordinary people .
Principles of ancient law and constitutions are abandoned .
In this response I stick to Great Britain , but the USA and Europe are suffering in the same way .
As all Austrian School economists understand , the Coronavirus has just put the banking and fiat currency collapse on fast forward .
Britain has a national debt of over two trillion pounds , nearer three when public sector pensions are accounted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United Kingdom budget has not balanced since 1989 .
Amazingly , this phenomenon remains undebated in either parliament or mainstream media .
The British general election last year was fought largely on Brexit , there was no discussion on government finances worthy of the name .
Extraordinary .
Incidentally , it was the same in America in November .
Western democracies have electorates which simply believe the State has money to distribute at will , there is no correlation or causation between state spending , monetary degradation and debt .
This is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the State commits to sponsoring the electorate from cradle to grave , health , pensions , social benefits lull people into a false sense of security .
If I may use an analogy , it is very much like the driver of a modern motor car .
Easy finance provides the vehicle , which is almost silent even at seventy miles an hour , quadrophonic sound envelopes the driver and passengers , airbags are all around , there is no sense of danger , what could go wrong ?
But sudden death or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The economy is the same .
There is never any cost-benefit analysis of legislation from Mainstream Media ( MSM ) or government .
Dogma and faux science rule .
At present , the UK is in yet another lockdown .
The economy is being crippled .
80 % of the British wealth-creating sector is small or medium-size businesses and they are bearing the brunt of the Coronavirus State response .
As ever , the public sector and big business remain largely unaffected .
The virus has a mortality rate no different from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is nowhere near as dangerous as the 1957 and 1968 flu virus .
The recovery rate for the healthy under seventy-five years of age is 98 % + .
It is a horrid bug which carries away the old and the frail , as seasonal viruses have done since the beginning of time .
Many economic pundits annoy me by talking of the damage the Coronavirus is doing to the economy , but it is the government response which is crucifying the economy .
The laissez-faire establishment cocooned in their ivory towers seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goes away everything will return to normal .
The economy will eventually recover as economies always do , but many of our freedoms will go forever .
The State rarely hands back power .
Already the Chancellor has exposed his lack of understanding of the enormity of the problem .
I despair when he assumes he can tax the country back to prosperity .
There is no hint of forthcoming cuts in public expenditure .
Vanity projects are all-consuming , from aircraft carriers to high-speed railways to nowhere that nobody wants .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest in fifty years .
But nobody seems to really care .
It is regarded somehow as an act of God .
Let me turn to Brexit .
The great lie worthy of Dr. Goebbels himself is the idea the European Union is about trade .
A view sincerely held by the gullible .
Having worked in the belly of the beast for ten years , I can confirm it is a political dream of a centralised European State , and it is a dream born with a religious fervour .
If it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the EU ’ s favour would secure a trade deal in an afternoon .
It could have been agreed four years ago .
Why was it not ?
In Britain , both major parties want to remain in the EU , as do the civil service and MSM .
So there has been four years of prevarication .
Those with the levers of power cling relentlessly to the dream .
Even as the negotiations go to the wire , the fifth column in MSM and the Houses of Parliament are working around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK to self-government .
Bear in mind Britain has not left the EU , it has merely withdrawn its commissioner and MEPs .
The governing conservative party are deeply spiritually drawn to a European empire of provinces .
The electoral mandate will almost certainly be betrayed in some way .
Only a suicidal EU political response can deliver a true Brexit .
It seems Britain at Christmas will be a Britain with a betrayed electorate , a broken economy an abandoned constitution and system of law , driven by hysteria over a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthy people than annual road accidents .
The question always remains , cock-up or conspiracy ?
The latter seems more likely every day , as government decisions are inexplicable and independent medical scientific opinion has been suppressed .
The majority of the population wander aimlessly about with ineffectual face masks and an air of growing despair .
Both President Eisenhower & Winston Churchill warned us of ‘ perverted science ’ and the power of the industrial , military and congressional complex .
It has come to pass in spades .
As if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough , we are also in the grip of faux climate science , driven by political fashion and emotion .
Britain is committed to a net-zero carbon dioxide emissions programme .
By 2030 , we have been told , we must move to 100 % electric cars .
No government minister has been able to say how much this will cost or how the logistics will work , it seems the whole idea is based on the style of a school sixth form think tank .
The hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absurd .
For twenty years , political group-think has built an industry of Greenie nonsense , totally detached from the real world .
As ever , no cost-benefit analysis has been attempted , nor has there been any form of debate .
‘ The science is settled ’ .
Yet the two great global sponsors of this absurdity is not a scientist but a backward Swedish teenager and an eccentric British royal prince .
This settled science is supported by international banks and celebrities bent on a sinister political platform for world government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Money printing doesn ’ t work , stimulus packages have constantly failed , national , corporate and personal debt is a number beyond human imagination .
If you doubt me , can you really conceive $ 250 trillion ?
Look at European bank asset ratios and shadow banking liability .
Deutsche Bank is reckoned to be owed €700 billion in shadow banking debt , while its stock price has collapsed 90 % , and it is not alone .
The stock market is blown out of all proportion to price-earnings ratios by historical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pathetic , negative interest rates abound .
The war on cash continues .
Western democracies have no option but to hyper-inflate money .
They know no other way .
Modern Monetary Theory is Keynesianism on stilts .
Fiat currencies have lost 80 % of their value against gold this century .
The world markets have already judged wealth preservation as gold and perhaps bitcoin .
Bear in mind gold traders with the support of the SEC and central banks naked sell gold on a regular basis , my book “ Magic of Banking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminal .
There can be 500 :1 promissory note ratio to gold specie .
When this chicanery ends , as end it must sooner or later , physical gold will accelerate to its real value as paper money collapses .
The State will then attempt to confiscate privately held gold , as it has done from European medieval kings to 1930s America .
I called in my speeches to the EU parliament for bankers and politicians to be sent to prison to halt this outrage or the whole sorry game will start over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has failed .
Yet still the British people slumber on , cowed , broken , dispirited , like a boxer on the ropes with no hope left .
The last time we saw Britain in this condition was 1938 .
But by 1940 , the country had turned around under the right leadership .
The main difference today is the enemy within .
Nazi Germany couldn ’ t close British pubs and businesses but today our own governments have .
Bear in mind the enormity of the horror of British government telling us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where we might travel .
This can not be about public health , but surely the much-heralded reset and new normal .
Be afraid not of death , but loss of liberty .
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

by Claudio Grass
These days, most mainstream news reports are being monopolized by the pandemic, the covid vaccine and all the new rules and lockdowns that are being enforced across the Western world, and this near-obsessive focus comes at the expense of a lot other important developments. The last story that managed to “dethrone” covid from the headlines was the US Presidential election, and even that reporting was largely through the prism of the pandemic. And yet, the earth hasn’t actually stopped spinning and hugely important geopolitical and economic shifts are still happening and they’re certainly newsworthy, especially for investors. Chief among them is Brexit now: the long-awaited, much-debated and endlessly negotiated “divorce” between the UK and the EU.
After what seems like an eternity of official talks, political promises, countless deadlines and a lot of media fear-mongering, the majority of the British people who voted to leave the EU now finally hope to see their wish materialize. However, that hope is dimmed by the vast systemic opposition, by political horse-trading and by negotiations and compromises that threaten to render Brexit essentially just a symbolic and ceremonial gesture. The timing of it is also crucial. There’s a lot of pressure in the country, especially felt by small business owners and the millions that they used to employ. As a direct result of the lockdowns, the restrictions and the uncertainty over the rules and policies that change frequently and often quite inexplicably, the economy is on life support, barely kept afloat by massive money printing and spending. Given the complexity of the predicament that Britain currently finds itself in, I had a lot of questions about where it might be headed and why. I shared them all with my friend Godfrey Bloom, whose ability to speak plainly and cut through the nonsense I have found to be especially illuminating when it comes to complicated issues and tangled affairs. In response, he outlined his thoughts and outlook in the article below, touching on all the consequential developments and forces that are shaping the nation’s future and explaining their impact.
Before entering the world of politics in 2004, Godfrey Bloom worked in the City of London for forty years and won fixed interest investment prizes. He served as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for a decade and became widely known as a vocal opponent of government regulation and centralization. A firm euro-skeptic, Bloom was also heavily involved in the Brexit “Leave” campaign as an independent activist. He is an Associate Member of the Royal College of Defense Studies, holds the Territorial Decoration, Sovereign’s Medal, European Parliamentary Medal and Westminster Armed Forces Parliamentary Medal. He is also an author with seven books to his credit. He is married to one of Europe’s leading equine physiotherapists.
—————
Having attained age seventy last year, I believed it would not be likely I would experience anything new in the way of politics or economics. Just more of the same but perhaps in a mutated form. How wrong I was.
Yet it is not shocks to the world economies that is new, but government responses. There will always be shocks, it is the way of humankind. They usually result in meaningless wars. These conflicts condemn millions of young men to fruitless death, while governments take away more and more freedom from ordinary people. Principles of ancient law and constitutions are abandoned. In this response I stick to Great Britain, but the USA and Europe are suffering in the same way.
As all Austrian School economists understand, the Coronavirus has just put the banking and fiat currency collapse on fast forward. Britain has a national debt of over two trillion pounds, nearer three when public sector pensions are accounted for, which they never are. The United Kingdom budget has not balanced since 1989. Amazingly, this phenomenon remains undebated in either parliament or mainstream media. The British general election last year was fought largely on Brexit, there was no discussion on government finances worthy of the name. Extraordinary. Incidentally, it was the same in America in November. Western democracies have electorates which simply believe the State has money to distribute at will, there is no correlation or causation between state spending, monetary degradation and debt. This is the result of two generations of welfarism: the State commits to sponsoring the electorate from cradle to grave, health, pensions, social benefits lull people into a false sense of security. If I may use an analogy, it is very much like the driver of a modern motor car. Easy finance provides the vehicle, which is almost silent even at seventy miles an hour, quadrophonic sound envelopes the driver and passengers, airbags are all around, there is no sense of danger, what could go wrong? But sudden death or serious injury are but a heartbeat away. The economy is the same. There is never any cost-benefit analysis of legislation from Mainstream Media (MSM) or government. Dogma and faux science rule.
At present, the UK is in yet another lockdown. The economy is being crippled. 80% of the British wealth-creating sector is small or medium-size businesses and they are bearing the brunt of the Coronavirus State response. As ever, the public sector and big business remain largely unaffected. The virus has a mortality rate no different from the seasonal flu. Indeed, it is nowhere near as dangerous as the 1957 and 1968 flu virus. The recovery rate for the healthy under seventy-five years of age is 98%+. It is a horrid bug which carries away the old and the frail, as seasonal viruses have done since the beginning of time.
Many economic pundits annoy me by talking of the damage the Coronavirus is doing to the economy, but it is the government response which is crucifying the economy. The laissez-faire establishment cocooned in their ivory towers seem to believe when and if the bug goes away everything will return to normal. The economy will eventually recover as economies always do, but many of our freedoms will go forever. The State rarely hands back power.
Already the Chancellor has exposed his lack of understanding of the enormity of the problem. I despair when he assumes he can tax the country back to prosperity. There is no hint of forthcoming cuts in public expenditure. Vanity projects are all-consuming, from aircraft carriers to high-speed railways to nowhere that nobody wants. The UK tax burden now is at its highest in fifty years. But nobody seems to really care. It is regarded somehow as an act of God.
Let me turn to Brexit.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The great lie worthy of Dr. Goebbels himself is the idea the European Union is about trade. A view sincerely held by the gullible. Having worked in the belly of the beast for ten years, I can confirm it is a political dream of a centralised European State, and it is a dream born with a religious fervour. If it were about trade the imbalance of 80:20 in the EU’s favour would secure a trade deal in an afternoon. It could have been agreed four years ago. Why was it not?
In Britain, both major parties want to remain in the EU, as do the civil service and MSM. So there has been four years of prevarication. Those with the levers of power cling relentlessly to the dream. Even as the negotiations go to the wire, the fifth column in MSM and the Houses of Parliament are working around the clock to sabotage a return of the UK to self-government. Bear in mind Britain has not left the EU, it has merely withdrawn its commissioner and MEPs. The governing conservative party are deeply spiritually drawn to a European empire of provinces. The electoral mandate will almost certainly be betrayed in some way. Only a suicidal EU political response can deliver a true Brexit. It seems Britain at Christmas will be a Britain with a betrayed electorate, a broken economy an abandoned constitution and system of law, driven by hysteria over a pandemic which has so far killed fewer healthy people than annual road accidents.
The question always remains, cock-up or conspiracy? The latter seems more likely every day, as government decisions are inexplicable and independent medical scientific opinion has been suppressed. The majority of the population wander aimlessly about with ineffectual face masks and an air of growing despair.
Both President Eisenhower & Winston Churchill warned us of ‘perverted science’ and the power of the industrial, military and congressional complex. It has come to pass in spades.
As if the disastrous Coronavirus State response weren’t enough, we are also in the grip of faux climate science, driven by political fashion and emotion. Britain is committed to a net-zero carbon dioxide emissions programme. By 2030, we have been told, we must move to 100% electric cars. No government minister has been able to say how much this will cost or how the logistics will work, it seems the whole idea is based on the style of a school sixth form think tank.
The hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide will cause apocalyptic global warming is now beyond absurd. For twenty years, political group-think has built an industry of Greenie nonsense, totally detached from the real world. As ever, no cost-benefit analysis has been attempted, nor has there been any form of debate. ‘The science is settled’. Yet the two great global sponsors of this absurdity is not a scientist but a backward Swedish teenager and an eccentric British royal prince. This settled science is supported by international banks and celebrities bent on a sinister political platform for world government by the elite of the planet.
Money printing doesn’t work, stimulus packages have constantly failed, national, corporate and personal debt is a number beyond human imagination. If you doubt me, can you really conceive $250 trillion? Look at European bank asset ratios and shadow banking liability. Deutsche Bank is reckoned to be owed €700 billion in shadow banking debt, while its stock price has collapsed 90%, and it is not alone. The stock market is blown out of all proportion to price-earnings ratios by historical standards. Bond and stock yields are pathetic, negative interest rates abound. The war on cash continues. Western democracies have no option but to hyper-inflate money. They know no other way. Modern Monetary Theory is Keynesianism on stilts.
Fiat currencies have lost 80% of their value against gold this century. The world markets have already judged wealth preservation as gold and perhaps bitcoin. Bear in mind gold traders with the support of the SEC and central banks naked sell gold on a regular basis, my book “Magic of Banking” explains how. It is frankly criminal. There can be 500 :1 promissory note ratio to gold specie. When this chicanery ends, as end it must sooner or later, physical gold will accelerate to its real value as paper money collapses. The State will then attempt to confiscate privately held gold, as it has done from European medieval kings to 1930s America. I called in my speeches to the EU parliament for bankers and politicians to be sent to prison to halt this outrage or the whole sorry game will start over again. The great central banking experiment has failed.
Yet still the British people slumber on, cowed, broken, dispirited, like a boxer on the ropes with no hope left. The last time we saw Britain in this condition was 1938. But by 1940, the country had turned around under the right leadership. The main difference today is the enemy within. Nazi Germany couldn’t close British pubs and businesses but today our own governments have. Bear in mind the enormity of the horror of British government telling us with whom we may spend Christmas and where we might travel. This cannot be about public health, but surely the much-heralded reset and new normal.
Be afraid not of death, but loss of liberty.
Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Technically Speaking: Charting 2020 – A Year Of Speculative Mania

As we prepare to wrap up the year , 2020 will go down in the record books as a year of the “ unexpected.
” While no one expected the world to get besieged by a raging pandemic , equally , no one expected the year to end in a “ speculative mania.
” In February , before the world recognized the pandemic , we updated our 2019 report on rising “ recession ” risks .
At that time , the media and Wall Street analysts were cavalier that there was “ no recession ” on the horizon , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 170/share by the end of 2021 .
As we noted then : A month later , the world came to a standstill .
Over the next month , the stock market fell 35 % from all-time highs as the economy sank into the deepest recession since the “ Great Depression.
” However , the decline in stock prices triggered the most massive financial response in history .
While the stock market rout was vicious , it was the blowout in credit spreads that worried the Federal Reserve the most .
Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are well-capitalized .
In reality , it only takes minor increases in rates to push them to the point of insolvency .
As the COVID-19 crisis accelerated and the economy shut down , the Federal Reserve intervened with a slew of monetary interventions .
Those interventions led to the largest increase in their balance sheet on record .
The interventions immediately reversed the “ yield reversion ” and pushed “ financial conditions ” back to record lows to the Fed ’ s credit .
Of course , with “ super easy monetary conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors rushed into the markets to “ buy everything.
” Of course , if investors don ’ t have any money with which to invest , you can ’ t have a bull market in stocks .
With sports gambling shut down due to the pandemic , gamblers turned to the stock market to feed the addiction .
Throughout history , recessions have not been kind to stock markets .
The COVID-driven recession should have been no different , with a record number of unemployed and levels of unemployment claims dwarfing any previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployed workers with more money in benefits than they earned previously , disposable income shot up .
However , with the economy locked down , the money remained in savings .
Flush with Government “ stimulus , ” individuals shifted their bets from sports to stocks .
The Rise Of The Robinhood Trader Such was a point we made in : Is it 1999 or 2007 ?
Retail Investors Flood The Market : As we noted in that article , Robinhood , which provided “ free trades ” to retail investors , wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To wit : Not surprisingly , Robinhood recently settled with the SEC for $ 65 Million for precisely that reason .
As the markets recovered from the March lows , investors turned their focus to hopes of more stimulus and a vaccine .
Yet repeated disappointments left the markets trading mostly sideways during the seasonally weak summer months .
As we noted in “ Market Surges Post-Election : ” Since we wrote that article , the market has continued to perform as expected , recently setting new all-time highs .
The election of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” have pushed investor exuberance to extremes .
Such was precisely the point in “ Overly Bullish : ” Such is the same phenomenon famously described by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan in a December 1996 speech on “ Irrational Exuberance.
” Finally , as the year-end of 2020 approaches , there are signs everywhere the markets have reached a “ mania ” phase .
Currently , “ retail investors ” are more confident than ever before .
To more extreme levels of exuberance by almost everyone .
As noted in “ Irrational @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sentiment , but also the speculative positioning of investors .
Currently , options traders are exceedingly confident the market will not crash .
That confidence shows up in many indicators showing investor positioning into equity “ risk ” at a rather alarming rate .
The 4-panel chart below shows investors have piled into equity funds , have a high level of confidence about the future , and complete evaporation of “ short-interest ” in the market .
( Charts courtesy of The DailyShot ) Such has led to the highest concentration into stocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the most extreme deviations from long-term means , investors are likely once again setting themselves up for disappointment .
Such is not even to mention the long-term correlations to valuations .
As noted in “ Why This Isn ’ t 1920 , ” the highest correlation between stock prices and future returns comes from valuations .
Currently , analysts are rushing to pin the highest 2021 price target on the S & P 500 .
Will they be right ?
The question will come down to whether economic growth and , ultimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to catch up with the market ’ s exuberance .
The last two times the market was this detached from profits , the outcome was not terrific .
We find the same with investors giving a larger valuation to “ equities ” than the underlying “ economy ” from where corporate revenues are derived .
The indicator shows us that when “ disconnects ” between market participants and the underlying economy occur , a reversion ensues .
The correlation is more evident when looking at the market versus the ratio of corporate profits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ correlation , investors should not dismiss these deviations .
Since corporate profits are a function of economic growth , the correlation is not unexpected .
Hence , neither should the impending reversion in both series .
It isn ’ t just market cap to GDP but every measure of valuation , all at once .
So , that ’ s 2020 , where the “ unexpected ” happened more than anyone could have expected .
Therefore , as we head into 2021 , it is reasonable to expect the “ unexpected ” could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As such , here are the 7-impossible trading rules to follow : It seems like a simple thing to do , but the average investor sells their winners and keeps their losers , hoping they will eventually return to even .
If an investment isn ’ t “ cheap , – it isn ’ t .
Don ’ t make excuses to justify overpaying for an investment .
In the long run , overpaying always reduces returns .
3 ) This Time Is Never Different : As much as our emotions and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best – this time is never different .
History may not repeat exactly , but it generally rhymes .
There is never a rush to invest .
There is also NOTHING WRONG with sitting on cash until a real opportunity comes along .
Being patient is an excellent way to keep yourself out of trouble .
The only thing you achieve by watching the television from one minute to the next is increasing your blood pressure .
6 ) Risk Is Not Equal To Your Return : Risk only relates to the loss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong .
Invest conservatively and grow your money over time with the least amount of risk possible .
When everyone agrees on the market ’ s direction due to any given set of reasons – generally , something else happens .
Such also cedes to points 2 ) and 4 ) .
To buy something cheap or to sell expensive , you are buying when everyone is selling and selling when everyone is buying .
The markets are indeed currently exceedingly exuberant on many fronts .
With margin debt back near peaks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ junk bond yields ” near record lows , the bullish media continues to suggest there is no reason for concern .
Of course , such should not be a surprise .
At market peaks – “ everyone ’ s in the pool.
” “ The investor ’ s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.
” – Benjamin Graham Such brings up some essential investment guidelines as we head into year-end .
• Investing is not a competition .
There are no prizes for winning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Emotions have no place in investing.You are generally better off doing the opposite of what you “ feel ” you should be doing .
• The ONLY investments that you can “ buy and hold ” are those that provide an income stream with a return of principal function .
• Market valuations ( except at extremes ) are very poor market timing devices .
• Fundamentals and Economics drive long-term investment decisions – “ Greed and Fear ” drive short-term trading .
Knowing what type of investor you are determines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Market timing ” is impossible– managing exposure to risk is both logical and possible .
• Investment is about discipline and patience .
Lacking either one can be destructive to your investment goals .
• There is no value in daily media commentary– turn off the television and save yourself the mental capital .
• Investing is no different than gambling– both are “ guesses ” about future outcomes based on probabilities .
The winner is the one who knows when to “ fold ” and when to go “ all in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all the time .
The trick is knowing the difference between a bad investment strategy and one that is temporarily out of favor .
The one lesson you should have learned in 2020 ?
“ The unexpected outcome occurs more often than you expect .
”

by Lance Roberts
As we prepare to wrap up the year, 2020 will go down in the record books as a year of the “unexpected.” While no one expected the world to get besieged by a raging pandemic, equally, no one expected the year to end in a “speculative mania.”
In February, before the world recognized the pandemic, we updated our 2019 report on rising “recession” risks. At that time, the media and Wall Street analysts were cavalier that there was “no recession” on the horizon, and S&P earnings would rise to $170/share by the end of 2021.
As we noted then:
“The risk to the market, and the economy, is not “sick people.” It is the shutdown of the global supply chain. The compilation of the data all suggests the risk of recession is markedly higher than what the media currently suggests. Yields and commodities are suggesting something quite different.”
A month later, the world came to a standstill. Over the next month, the stock market fell 35% from all-time highs as the economy sank into the deepest recession since the “Great Depression.”
However, the decline in stock prices triggered the most massive financial response in history.
Enter The Fed
While the stock market rout was vicious, it was the blowout in credit spreads that worried the Federal Reserve the most. Wall Street routinely tells us the major banking institutions are well-capitalized. In reality, it only takes minor increases in rates to push them to the point of insolvency.
As the COVID-19 crisis accelerated and the economy shut down, the Federal Reserve intervened with a slew of monetary interventions. Those interventions led to the largest increase in their balance sheet on record.
The interventions immediately reversed the “yield reversion” and pushed “financial conditions” back to record lows to the Fed’s credit. Of course, with “super easy monetary conditions” and a decade of training, investors rushed into the markets to “buy everything.”
Of course, if investors don’t have any money with which to invest, you can’t have a bull market in stocks. With sports gambling shut down due to the pandemic, gamblers turned to the stock market to feed the addiction.
Stimulus Turns Gamblers To Traders
Throughout history, recessions have not been kind to stock markets. The COVID-driven recession should have been no different, with a record number of unemployed and levels of unemployment claims dwarfing any previous recessionary period.
With the Government providing unemployed workers with more money in benefits than they earned previously, disposable income shot up. However, with the economy locked down, the money remained in savings.
Flush with Government “stimulus,” individuals shifted their bets from sports to stocks.
The Rise Of The Robinhood Trader
Such was a point we made in: Is it 1999 or 2007? Retail Investors Flood The Market:
“Free trading app Robinhood has added more than three million retail accounts in 2020, and now has over 13 million. The median age of its retail customer is 31. The Covid-19 lockdowns and the plunge in markets in March persuaded millions of new investors to open accounts. Some of the action appears to be from people who would otherwise be gambling or betting on sports—both of which were shut down.” – Barron’s
As we noted in that article, Robinhood, which provided “free trades” to retail investors, wasn’t doing it for free. To wit:
“The irony is that Robinhood really isn’t ‘stealing from the rich.’ In reality, they are ‘getting rich by stealing from the poor.’ As is always the case, there is no ‘free lunch,’ as Robinhood bundles orders and then ‘sells’ the flows to major hedge funds for profit. Those hedge funds then ‘front run’ the ‘Robinhooders’ taking advantage of their trading. (If this wasn’t massively profitable for hedge funds they wouldn’t pay millions for the data.)”
Not surprisingly, Robinhood recently settled with the SEC for $65 Million for precisely that reason.
Vaccine & Election Spurs The Bulls
As the markets recovered from the March lows, investors turned their focus to hopes of more stimulus and a vaccine. Yet repeated disappointments left the markets trading mostly sideways during the seasonally weak summer months. As we noted in “Market Surges Post-Election:”
“Currently, the markets continue to trade in line with election year statistics. While the markets have certainly been under pressure over the last few weeks, the decline has remained orderly for the most part. A look back at all election years since 1960 shows an average increase in the market of nearly 8.4% annually (excluding the 2008 ‘financial crisis and current 2020 performance.” –Selloff Overdone
Since we wrote that article, the market has continued to perform as expected, recently setting new all-time highs. The election of Joe Biden and deliveries of “vaccines” have pushed investor exuberance to extremes. Such was precisely the point in “Overly Bullish:”
“The chart below shows the combined average of institutional and individual investor valuation confidence subtracted from future returns confidence. When the reading is positive, the confidence the market will be higher one year from now is more elevated than the confidence in the market’s valuation. The opposite is the case when the reading is in negative territory. The key takeaway is that investors think simultaneously, the market is over-valued but likely to keep climbing.”
Such is the same phenomenon famously described by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan in a December 1996 speech on “Irrational Exuberance.”
Signs Of A Mania
Finally, as the year-end of 2020 approaches, there are signs everywhere the markets have reached a “mania” phase.
Currently, “retail investors” are more confident than ever before.
To more extreme levels of exuberance by almost everyone. As noted in “Irrational Exuberance:”
“You have to wonder precisely how much ‘gas is left in the tank’ when even ‘perma-bears’ are now bullish. Therefore, the question we should ask is ‘if everyone is in, who is left to buy?’”
It is not just sentiment, but also the speculative positioning of investors. Currently, options traders are exceedingly confident the market will not crash.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
That confidence shows up in many indicators showing investor positioning into equity “risk” at a rather alarming rate. The 4-panel chart below shows investors have piled into equity funds, have a high level of confidence about the future, and complete evaporation of “short-interest” in the market. (Charts courtesy of The DailyShot)
Such has led to the highest concentration into stocks by investors on record.
With some of the most extreme deviations from long-term means, investors are likely once again setting themselves up for disappointment. Such is not even to mention the long-term correlations to valuations.
As noted in “Why This Isn’t 1920,” the highest correlation between stock prices and future returns comes from valuations.
Looking Ahead To 2021
Currently, analysts are rushing to pin the highest 2021 price target on the S&P 500.
Will they be right? The question will come down to whether economic growth and, ultimately, corporate profitability will be strong enough to catch up with the market’s exuberance. The last two times the market was this detached from profits, the outcome was not terrific.
We find the same with investors giving a larger valuation to “equities” than the underlying “economy” from where corporate revenues are derived.
The indicator shows us that when “disconnects” between market participants and the underlying economy occur, a reversion ensues. The correlation is more evident when looking at the market versus the ratio of corporate profits to GDP. With a 90% correlation, investors should not dismiss these deviations.
Since corporate profits are a function of economic growth, the correlation is not unexpected. Hence, neither should the impending reversion in both series. It isn’t just market cap to GDP but every measure of valuation, all at once.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Ron Paul censored by YouTube, threatened with channel termination

Very disturbing news : YouTube has pulled an episode of the Ron Paul Liberty Report and issued a `` warning @ @ @ @ @ will result in our not being able to put up more programs .
The episode @ @ @ @ @ a Trump rally – they said it is `` medical misinformation . ''
pic.twitter.com/bzZuPVPY2d

Very disturbing news: YouTube has pulled an episode of the Ron Paul Liberty Report and issued a "warning" that any more violations will result in our not being able to put up more programs. The episode was a news report on a Trump rally – they said it is "medical misinformation." pic.twitter.com/bzZuPVPY2d
— Ron Paul (@RonPaul) December 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Martin Armstrong: Now They Censor Anyone Explaining the Great Reset!

What Is The Great Reset ?
Explaining the World Economic Forum ’ s Controversial Initiative .
YouTube has censored anything explaining what Agenda 2030 is all about .
These individuals are part of the conspiracy to end capitalism , and they are now advocating Communism 3.0 intermixed with Feudalism .
First , it was COVID , then Trump ; now it is anything that explains the Great Reset , which is a publicly declared agenda to which Trudeau has openly committed Canada to follow .
Trudeau will NEVER tell the people the truth .
These people act like the worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections and impose George Soros ’ one-world government with the United Nations at the helm .
Anyone who still refuses to believe the election was rigged simply because they hate Trump , well , you better start paying attention to the people who convinced you to hate Trump , for they have a far worse future in mind for you .
The problem is simple .
They know that the longer they can prevent people from rising up , the more small businesses will be destroyed , and small businesses employ 70 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wake up , for your children are being condemned , and these people will not allow you to know their evil intentions .
These people are committing outright treason against the United States and free society .
Twitter is the most disgustingly corrupt of all .
Dorsey is lucky I am not president , for I would have sent the military in and seized his company as Truman did during the strikes under National Security .
Two weeks before the election Twitter changed how you retweet because they obviously didn ’ t want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Dorsey got the political result he wanted , so low and behold , he ’ s going back to the old way .
Dorsey I believe is an absolute vile individual who has conspired against the United States and we will see Twitter make every effort to push Schwab ’ s takeover of the world .
Dorsey and Zuckerger I believe should go to prison where they will enjoy “ equality ” and everyone gets the same – for life .
Here we have these two individuals doing EXACTLY what they accused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election .
Obviously , the US Constitution is in violation of their community guidelines and today they would ban Thomas Jefferson and many others .

by Martin Armstrong
What Is The Great Reset? Explaining the World Economic Forum’s Controversial Initiative.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YCQRG6jZ_c
YouTube has censored anything explaining what Agenda 2030 is all about. These individuals are part of the conspiracy to end capitalism, and they are now advocating Communism 3.0 intermixed with Feudalism. First, it was COVID, then Trump; now it is anything that explains the Great Reset, which is a publicly declared agenda to which Trudeau has openly committed Canada to follow. Trudeau will NEVER tell the people the truth.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
These people act like the worse tyrants in history. They will eliminate elections and impose George Soros’ one-world government with the United Nations at the helm.
Anyone who still refuses to believe the election was rigged simply because they hate Trump, well, you better start paying attention to the people who convinced you to hate Trump, for they have a far worse future in mind for you. The problem is simple. They know that the longer they can prevent people from rising up, the more small businesses will be destroyed, and small businesses employ 70% of the civil workforce. You better wake up, for your children are being condemned, and these people will not allow you to know their evil intentions. These people are committing outright treason against the United States and free society.
Twitter is the most disgustingly corrupt of all. Dorsey is lucky I am not president, for I would have sent the military in and seized his company as Truman did during the strikes under National Security. Two weeks before the election Twitter changed how you retweet because they obviously didn’t want certain things to go viral. Now that Dorsey got the political result he wanted, so low and behold, he’s going back to the old way. Dorsey I believe is an absolute vile individual who has conspired against the United States and we will see Twitter make every effort to push Schwab’s takeover of the world. Dorsey and Zuckerger I believe should go to prison where they will enjoy “equality” and everyone gets the same – for life. Here we have these two individuals doing EXACTLY what they accused Russia of doing – influencing the US election.
Obviously, the US Constitution is in violation of their community guidelines and today they would ban Thomas Jefferson and many others.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Coronavirus has now reached the last continent on Earth – with the first cases identified in Antarct

Most of those infected are believed to be from the military , with some maintenance workers also diagnosed .
Coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ continent on Earth – with the first cases identified in Antarctica .
The Chilean army @ @ @ @ @ with the General Bernardo O ’ Higgins Riquelme base on the planet ’ s southern @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 .
The base is in the far western reaches of Antarctica , close to @ @ @ @ @ America .

Most of those infected are believed to be from the military, with some maintenance workers also diagnosed.
Coronavirus has now reached the last continent on Earth – with the first cases identified in Antarctica.
The Chilean army announced that 36 people linked with the General Bernardo O’Higgins Riquelme base on the planet’s southern pole had tested positive for COVID-19.
The base is in the far western reaches of Antarctica, close to the southern tip of South America.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--It’s official! Employers can now ban you from returning to work unless you receive the vaccine!

Employers can require workers to get a Covid-19 vaccine and bar them from the workplace if they refuse , the @ @ @ @ @ issued this week .

Employers can require workers to get a Covid-19 vaccine and bar them from the workplace if they refuse, the federal government said in guidelines issued this week.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Tulsi Gabbard introduces bill to fund small businesses forced to close using profits from big corpor

Tulsi Gabbard introduces bill to fund small businesses forced to close using profits from big corporations

Washington , DC—Yesterday , Rep. Tulsi Gabbard ( HI-02 ) introduced H.Res.1267 , the Pandemic Crisis Excess Profits Tax , which calls on Congress to levy a limited-time tax on the excess profits of large corporations who profited beyond their average profits over the past several years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and to direct the funds collected to support small businesses .
“ Big tech corporations and big box retailers are among those who have made excessive profits during the COVID-19 pandemic , while mom and pop shops are being forced to close their doors due to government-mandated restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporations will be better positioned with a competitive advantage over small businesses in a post-pandemic economy .
Congress must reinstate the WWII-era excess profit tax used at that time to prevent war-time profiteering , and dedicate the funds collected to helping small businesses recover , ” said Rep. Tulsi Gabbard .
“ Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and have borne the brunt of this crisis .
We need to support our small businesses and make sure that they are able to thrive and compete.
” , the Pandemic Crisis Excess @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levy an excess profits tax on large corporations , like Amazon , Google , Facebook , and Wal-Mart who have seen windfall profits because of the COVID-19 pandemic .

Washington, DC—Yesterday, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI-02) introduced H.Res.1267, the Pandemic Crisis Excess Profits Tax, which calls on Congress to levy a limited-time tax on the excess profits of large corporations who profited beyond their average profits over the past several years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and to direct the funds collected to support small businesses.
“Big tech corporations and big box retailers are among those who have made excessive profits during the COVID-19 pandemic, while mom and pop shops are being forced to close their doors due to government-mandated restrictions. Because of this, these large corporations will be better positioned with a competitive advantage over small businesses in a post-pandemic economy. Congress must reinstate the WWII-era excess profit tax used at that time to prevent war-time profiteering, and dedicate the funds collected to helping small businesses recover,” said Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. “Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and have borne the brunt of this crisis. We need to support our small businesses and make sure that they are able to thrive and compete.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--FREEDOM PASSPORTS UK INCOMING

FREEDOM PASSPORTS UK INCOMING

• Two firms awarded Government contracts for exploratory work on a new app • The Dep of Health said no @ @ @ @ @ introducing the passport • The contracts envisage a system under which people are assigned a @ @ @ @ @ carried out to develop coronavirus freedom ‘ passports ’ that will allow those who have @ @ @ @ @ , schools and workplaces .
Two firms have been awarded Government contracts for exploratory work @ @ @ @ @ would allow people to prove they do not have Covid .
The Department of Health @ @ @ @ @ made on introducing the passport .
The contracts envisage a system under which people are @ @ @ @ @ their smartphones linking to a digital passport that includes a photo of them .
After @ @ @ @ @ would be updated at the test centre and when people want to enter a venue @ @ @ @ @ code as proof of their negative status .

Two firms awarded Government contracts for exploratory work on a new app
The Dep of Health said no decisions had been made on introducing the passport
The contracts envisage a system under which people are assigned a QR code
Work is being carried out to develop coronavirus freedom ‘passports’ that will allow those who have tested negative to enter pubs, schools and workplaces.
Two firms have been awarded Government contracts for exploratory work on a new app that would allow people to prove they do not have Covid.
The Department of Health said no decisions had been made on introducing the passport.
The contracts envisage a system under which people are assigned a QR code on their smartphones linking to a digital passport that includes a photo of them.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
After a Covid test, this would be updated at the test centre and when people want to enter a venue they could present their QR code as proof of their negative status.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9077385/Firms-start-work-freedom-passports.html
h/t Aphelius


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--New York City Restaurant Owners Ban Andrew Cuomo… as 9 of 10 restaurants in New York City can’t pay

New York City Restaurant Owners Ban Andrew Cuomo… as 9 of 10 restaurants in New York City can’t pay the full rent.

Half of New York City bars and restaurants may close for good due to the despotic pandemic rules by state @ @ @ @ @ restaurants in New York City can ’ t pay the full rent .
“ Governor @ @ @ @ @ .
I have to call my staff and break the news that they don ’ @ @ @ @ @ Monday , ” said Stratis Morfogen , the director of operations at Brooklyn Chop House @ @ @ @ @ the owner of the soon-to-be-open Brooklyn Dumpling Shop in the East Village .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ , dishwashers , wait staff and more to tell them the devastating news that they @ @ @ @ @ families .
”

Half of New York City bars and restaurants may close for good due to the despotic pandemic rules by state leaders.
9 of 10 restaurants in New York City can’t pay the full rent.
Excellent idea! Should also expand as project throughout NY state, and applied by other cities and states being destroyed by incompetent, malevolent #jackasses like Cuomo 👊👊 “NYC Restaurants to Ban Cuomo from Dining” t.co/kid7kis01C HT @JaniceDean — Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) December 19, 2020
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/struggling-new-york-city-restaurant-owners-ban-andrew-cuomo-establishments/
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Governor Cuomo has destroyed our industry. I have to call my staff and break the news that they don’t have a job come Monday,” said Stratis Morfogen, the director of operations at Brooklyn Chop House in the Financial District and the owner of the soon-to-be-open Brooklyn Dumpling Shop in the East Village. “I’m talking to busboys, dishwashers, wait staff and more to tell them the devastating news that they can’t feed their families.”
www.amny.com/news/restauranteurs-blast-cuomos-indoor-dining-ban/
h/t Christbeliever


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--TRAITORS IN THE WHITE HOUSE – THE MOST VOLATILE OVAL OFFICE MEETING IN 200 YEARS- Overstock Guy Spea

TRAITORS IN THE WHITE HOUSE – THE MOST VOLATILE OVAL OFFICE MEETING IN 200 YEARS- Overstock Guy Speaks Out

For you to fully understand who exactly Donald Trump is and the traitors who are swimming around him like sharks @ @ @ @ @ his waist , this podcast will show you what he is up against and why @ @ @ @ @ so long to rid the nation of Joe Biden and the Deep State .
A @ @ @ @ @ in the Oval office has probably never happened in over 200 years .
Share this @ @ @ @ @ aware of what is really going on and why the President must act quickly if @ @ @ @ @ saved from Communism .

www.bitchute.com/video/73UlgCtmcUHh/
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
For you to fully understand who exactly Donald Trump is and the traitors who are swimming around him like sharks, like snakes up to his waist, this podcast will show you what he is up against and why this simple fix is taking so long to rid the nation of Joe Biden and the Deep State.
A most volatile meeting like this in the Oval office has probably never happened in over 200 years.
Share this like crazy to make people aware of what is really going on and why the President must act quickly if the Union is to be saved from Communism.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Oregon State Police to protestors: “All SUBJECTS need to leave the grounds now.”

Check this out starting at 1:30… You think they used the words “ subjects ” by accident ?
?
None @ @ @ @ @ legal need to remove themselves from their OWN CAPITOL GROUNDS because not a single one @ @ @ @ @ subject !
This is TRULY an unique widow into the soul of the N.W.O .
@ @ @ @ @ U.S. government , and EVERY STATE GOVERNMENT .
THIS is what tyranny sounds like , @ @ @ @ @ one , starting , especially , at 3:50…

Check this out starting at 1:30…
You think they used the words “subjects” by accident??
None of those people had any legal need to remove themselves from their OWN CAPITOL GROUNDS because not a single one of them was ever a subject!
This is TRULY an unique widow into the soul of the N.W.O. apparatus that now controls the U.S. government, and EVERY STATE GOVERNMENT.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
THIS is what tyranny sounds like, people:
Listen to this one, starting, especially, at 3:50…
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--VIDEO of the Stimulus Bill – This is INSANITY and the definition of dysfunction

This is INSANITY and the definition of dysfunction , @ SpeakerPelosi !
pic.twitter.com/PDV84SszT2 5,593 pages to read and the vote @ @ @ @ @ $ 600 is a slap in the face to every American struggling due to the @ @ @ @ @ .
I voted against the 5,593-page spending bill that gave billions to corporate interests , @ @ @ @ @ other countries , leaving crumbs for you who need help most .
pic.twitter.com/82F1HYF43T

This is INSANITY and the definition of dysfunction, @SpeakerPelosi ! pic.twitter.com/PDV84SszT2
5,593 pages to read and the vote is in 4 hours.
$600 is a slap in the face to every American struggling due to the pandemic. You deserve better.
I voted against the 5,593-page spending bill that gave billions to corporate interests, the military industrial complex & other countries, leaving crumbs for you who need help most. pic.twitter.com/82F1HYF43T
— Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 (@TulsiGabbard) December 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--Stock market risk, currencies extreme positioning, energy stocks are golden

The CBOE Skew Index , which measures the risk of a black swan event for the S & P 500 , jumped to the highest level in months .
This is often seen as a contrarian indicator for the stock market and over the past 2 years has had a better-than-average track record for predicting market declines .
Overall , SKEW ’ s accuracy as a bearish signal was spotty .
Historical cases in which SKEW was more than 12 % above its 200 dma led to mixed results .
Cases in the 2000s were mostly bearish over the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past 5 years mostly led to more gains over the next few weeks and months .
I noted yesterday that speculator positioning towards copper is at a historical extreme .
Such extreme COT readings are not just notable in copper – they are also notable in currencies .
Large Speculators are extremely bullish towards the Japanese Yen after a major U.S. Dollar decline : Such extreme sentiment in the past did not halt the Yen ’ s rally .
Instead , USD/JPY fell even more over the next 2 months : Similarly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dollar is at a multi-year low : Once again , such bearishness towards the U.S. Dollar usually led to more losses for the Dollar over the next 6 months .
When currency trends get going , they are hard to stop .
There are always counter-trend moves along the way , but it ’ s hard to successfully predict these counter-trend moves .
The S & P 500 energy sector is on the verge of forming a “ golden cross ” ( 50 dma > 200 dma ) .
This is the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crashes in amrket history : In the past , energy stocks could pullback in the short term after forming a golden cross .
This wasn ’ t a guaranteed bullish sign .

by Shaun Richards
Stock market risk
The CBOE Skew Index, which measures the risk of a black swan event for the S&P 500, jumped to the highest level in months. This is often seen as a contrarian indicator for the stock market and over the past 2 years has had a better-than-average track record for predicting market declines.
Overall, SKEW’s accuracy as a bearish signal was spotty. Historical cases in which SKEW was more than 12% above its 200 dma led to mixed results. Cases in the 2000s were mostly bearish over the next few weeks and months whereas cases over the past 5 years mostly led to more gains over the next few weeks and months.
U.S. Dollar extreme positioning
I noted yesterday that speculator positioning towards copper is at a historical extreme. Such extreme COT readings are not just notable in copper – they are also notable in currencies. Large Speculators are extremely bullish towards the Japanese Yen after a major U.S. Dollar decline:
Such extreme sentiment in the past did not halt the Yen’s rally. Instead, USD/JPY fell even more over the next 2 months:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Similarly, Large Speculators positioning towards the U.S. Dollar is at a multi-year low:
Once again, such bearishness towards the U.S. Dollar usually led to more losses for the Dollar over the next 6 months. When currency trends get going, they are hard to stop. There are always counter-trend moves along the way, but it’s hard to successfully predict these counter-trend moves.
Energy is golden again
The S&P 500 energy sector is on the verge of forming a “golden cross” (50 dma > 200 dma). This is the first golden cross after one of the worst crashes in amrket history:
In the past, energy stocks could pullback in the short term after forming a golden cross. This wasn’t a guaranteed bullish sign.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--The Fed should not be permitting big banks to pay out billions of dollars to shareholder & execs. Wa

The pandemic is still raging ; the economy is still struggling ; & the outlook remains uncertain .
The Fed @ @ @ @ @ banks to pay out billions of dollars to shareholder & execs .
Wall St should @ @ @ @ @ losses & support the economy .
t.co/iYTpsSloOl

The pandemic is still raging; the economy is still struggling; & the outlook remains uncertain.
The Fed should not be permitting big banks to pay out billions of dollars to shareholder & execs. Wall St should be conserving capital to absorb losses & support the economy. t.co/iYTpsSloOl
— Gregg Gelzinis (@FinGregg) December 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-22--35% of all US Dollars ever printed were printed this year

So is this part of a plan to end the federal reserve and get us back to a gold standard @ @ @ @ @ of the great reset ?
Maybe that ’ s a dumb question .

So is this part of a plan to end the federal reserve and get us back to a gold standard, or is it part of the great reset? Maybe that’s a dumb question.
35% of all US dollars that have EVER printed were printed in the last 10 months pic.twitter.com/iBzHdFWYsi — Calliope 彡 #BoycottTurkey (@Calliope_Greece) December 19, 2020
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/23-6-of-all-us-dollars-were-created-in-the-last-year
Oh boy! US M1 Money Supply growth has accelerated to a whopping 66%. pic.twitter.com/WANvg0yU6P — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) December 22, 2020
"The ballooning of global liquidity — gross flows of credit, savings and international capital that facilitate debt, investment and cross-border capital flows. In 2019, this international pool of funds was estimated at $130tn, two-thirds larger than world GDP." China’s = $36tn. pic.twitter.com/Ae6jYnSE4S — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) December 20, 2020
Warren Buffett makes the case for gold in 30 seconds… WELCOME TO THE ERA OF GOLD 👑 pic.twitter.com/hLi9XxJFlx — Gold Telegraph ✪ (@GoldTelegraph_) December 22, 2020
2/ This list of the Federal Reserve's largest holdings of unbacked corporate debt, and the number recipients that are wholly-owned subsidiaries of foreign companies, will warm your heart. pic.twitter.com/PQzVKuPjH2 — John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) December 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--Latest Global #Liquidity data to mid-Dec. Central Bank Money going up again! Sanity or insanity Clau

Latest Global #Liquidity data to mid-Dec. Central Bank Money going up again! Sanity or insanity Claus?

Cathie Wood is going strong on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ( NYSE : TAK ) .
They got FDA approval @ @ @ @

5/ Daniel Ades continues: "Like every trend in financial markets, the last move is generally exponential, and we are living it today: the endless supply of free money is going parabolic."
The proof is in the pudding as governments spend almost $30 trillion in 2020 alone! pic.twitter.com/cqqMUMdUyk
— Tiho Brkan (@TihoBrkan) December 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--Powell’s worst case scenario: falling home prices FOLLOW falling rents. We’re only talking about big

“ Social media ” has been the worst thing to happen to our politics , our journalism , and our @ @ @ @ @ this nation .
It needs to be taken apart .

Powell’s worst case scenario: falling home prices FOLLOW falling rents. We’re only talking about biggest input to inflation target against which Fed makes policy. THIS is scenario most likely to play out should GOP retain Senate. If GOP loses, forbearance continues/FHA bailed out t.co/CtzbghyGVe
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) December 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--Fractional Reserve Banking – this is what’s happening at a more ferocious pace

Fractional Reserve Banking *this is what 's happening at a more ferocious pace pic.twitter.com/Tf0NR9XVJ9

Fractional Reserve Banking
*this is what's happening at a more ferocious pace pic.twitter.com/Tf0NR9XVJ9
— Farris BABA (@farrisbaba) December 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--A game changer? Reuters: US Approves NYSE listing plan to cut out Wall Street middlemen

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) – Companies can raise capital on the New York Stock Exchange through direct listings , without @ @ @ @ @ pops or forking out hefty fees to Wall Street banks , which typically underwrite such @ @ @ @ @ securities regulator said on Tuesday .
The Securities and Exchange Commission ’ s approval of @ @ @ @ @ direct ” listing plan threatens to overhaul the U.S. initial public offering market , by @ @ @ @ @ sell shares directly to investors .
Investment banks have for decades organized IPOs , marketed @ @ @ @ @ the stock via their trading desks .

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Companies can raise capital on the New York Stock Exchange through direct listings, without losing gains if their stock pops or forking out hefty fees to Wall Street banks, which typically underwrite such capital raisings, the U.S. securities regulator said on Tuesday.
The Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of the NYSE’s “direct” listing plan threatens to overhaul the U.S. initial public offering market, by allowing aspiring public companies to sell shares directly to investors.
Investment banks have for decades organized IPOs, marketed them to institutions and supported the stock via their trading desks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--PLTR signs 31.5$ Mil contract with UK NHS

PLTR just signed a 31.5 Mil $ contract with the UK NHS for its Covid and vaccine rollout .
The @ @ @ @ @ do seem promising .
If PLTR can prove itself to a particular agency , and @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ ll stick with PLTR for years .
Although the size of the @ @ @ @ @ compared to those of other companies , the momentum itself is a very promising sign @ @ @ @ @ is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the @ @ @ @ @ Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision @

PLTR just signed a 31.5 Mil$ contract with the UK NHS for its Covid and vaccine rollout.
The steady stream of government contracts do seem promising. If PLTR can prove itself to a particular agency, and embed themselves into the infrastructure, it’ll stick with PLTR for years.
Although the size of the contracts seem to be small compared to those of other companies, the momentum itself is a very promising sign.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Source: www.thestreet.com/investing/palantir-pltr-contract-national-health-service-united-kingdom?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
h/t TheMillennialSeonbi
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--Coinbase will IPO in 2021, already valued at 60B in pre IPO markets

Coinbase will go public in 2021 .
Expected for Q1 .
“ Coinbase was valued at more than $ 8 billion in 2018 after a $ 300 million funding round led by Tiger Global Management .
The company , started in 2012 , has raised more than $ 500 million from backers that also include Andreessen Horowitz , Y Combinator and Greylock Partners , according to its website .
Coinbase said it has has more than 35 million verified users in more than 100 countries and more than $ 25 billion in assets on its platform.
” If you are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get in through so-called preipo contracts see : np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/khx0rj/get_ik_before_wall_street_the_coinbase_pre_ipo/ Coinbase is the goto exchange for cryptocurrencies in the USA .
They are selling shovels during the goldrush .
That said 60B is an extreme value .
Too much I would say .
I still think it is a good play upto actual IPO day .
Short term : long , long term : short .
I expect this to be one of the biggest IPOs of 2021 .
Recently traditional media have been spending more and more attention to bitcoin and crypto , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ afraid to miss out .
EDIT : The Pre IPO is not open for US Citizens .
“ CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany , and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer these products .
All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity , and pass through CM-Equity ’ s KYC and compliance .
Furthermore , all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity .
CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm .
CM-Equity ( not FTX Trading LTD @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order to trade tokenized stocks on FTX , you must be at least KYC level 2 .
Once you are , you can go to your tokenized stocks KYC page to submit your information to CM-Equity .
You must also not be a member of one of FTX ’ s restricted jurisdictions , including the United States ; FTX collects KYC documents and IP addresses from its users .
FTX does not operate in its restricted jurisdictions.
” The preipo contracts will convert to tokenized shares at the end of IPO day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 by the actual shares .
If Coinbase for whatever reason does not go public before 21st of june 2022 ( 1.5 year from now ) the contracts will be cash settled at 32 USD .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by toplelkekfag
Coinbase will go public in 2021. Expected for Q1.
“Coinbase was valued at more than $8 billion in 2018 after a $300 million funding round led by Tiger Global Management. The company, started in 2012, has raised more than $500 million from backers that also include Andreessen Horowitz, Y Combinator and Greylock Partners, according to its website. Coinbase said it has has more than 35 million verified users in more than 100 countries and more than $25 billion in assets on its platform.”
If you are a little bit tech-savvy you can already get in through so-called preipo contracts see: np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/khx0rj/get_ik_before_wall_street_the_coinbase_pre_ipo/
Coinbase is the goto exchange for cryptocurrencies in the USA. They are selling shovels during the goldrush.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
That said 60B is an extreme value. Too much I would say. I still think it is a good play upto actual IPO day. Short term: long, long term: short. I expect this to be one of the biggest IPOs of 2021. Recently traditional media have been spending more and more attention to bitcoin and crypto, so their audiences are warmed up and afraid to miss out.
EDIT: The Pre IPO is not open for US Citizens.
“CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer these products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity’s KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services. In order to trade tokenized stocks on FTX, you must be at least KYC level 2. Once you are, you can go to your tokenized stocks KYC page to submit your information to CM-Equity. You must also not be a member of one of FTX’s restricted jurisdictions, including the United States; FTX collects KYC documents and IP addresses from its users. FTX does not operate in its restricted jurisdictions.”
The preipo contracts will convert to tokenized shares at the end of IPO day. The tokenized shares are backed 1 on 1 by the actual shares. If Coinbase for whatever reason does not go public before 21st of june 2022 (1.5 year from now) the contracts will be cash settled at 32 USD.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-24--First, Democrats wanted to pay states to let criminals out of jail.  Now, they want to prioritize th

First , Democrats wanted to pay states to let criminals out of jail .
Now , they want to prioritize @ @ @ @ @ prisoners .
pic.twitter.com/b3OpQfdmEW

First, Democrats wanted to pay states to let criminals out of jail.
Now, they want to prioritize the #COVID19 vaccine for prisoners. pic.twitter.com/b3OpQfdmEW
— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) December 22, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--An extremely accurate and hilarious take on why consuming yourself with politics is a waste of time.

Whether you lean right or left , Tim Dillon perfectly summarizes why nobody should let politics consume them , and @ @ @ @ @ “ All the fuck they want to do is get power , and you give @ @ @ @ @ ” Mods , I understand if this gets deleted given that it ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ this is the only community I felt like would actually appreciate and be able to @ @ @ @ @ comedy .

Whether you lean right or left, Tim Dillon perfectly summarizes why nobody should let politics consume them, and why politicians are frauds.
“All the fuck they want to do is get power, and you give it to them so easily.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Mods, I understand if this gets deleted given that it’s not exactly a conspiracy, but this is the only community I felt like would actually appreciate and be able to discuss the truth behind the comedy.
h/t MarkItZero31


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--New York City government going door to door, serving UK travelers quarantine orders.

“ This will be a personal and direct order to every single one of them telling them they must quarantine @ @ @ @ @ .
“ People are going to be held responsible.
” The travel unit will knock @ @ @ @ @ to ensure compliance .
Beyond U.K. travelers , all people coming into the city will @ @ @ @ @ via certified mail .
Each day a person is found in violation of the quarantine @ @ @ @ @ fine .
The efforts come as the five boroughs fight to beat back their steepest @ @ @ @ @ a new potential threat .

JUST IN: New York City to serve UK travelers quarantine orders, door knock (NBC New York). — The Bias News (@thebias_news) December 23, 2020
“This will be a personal and direct order to every single one of them telling them they must quarantine,” the mayor said. “People are going to be held responsible.”
The travel unit will knock on hotel or home doors to ensure compliance. Beyond U.K. travelers, all people coming into the city will receive a commissioner quarantine order via certified mail. Each day a person is found in violation of the quarantine order incurs a $1,000 fine. The efforts come as the five boroughs fight to beat back their steepest viral increases in months amid a new potential threat.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/twin-threats-holiday-travel-new-covid-strain-unnerve-tri-state-as-vaccine-race-continues/2796706/
h/t Anon Braveheart


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--ANOTHER Mutation Breaking Out In England!

• Two cases of the South African variant of the virus — called 501.V2 — have been detected so far in the UK • Second mutated strain to be found in as many weeks and this version is even ‘ more transmissible ’ than first • Matt Hancock said discovery was ‘ highly concerning ’ and slapped immediate travel bans on South Africa • Unrelated cases found in London and the North West suggest the virus is likely all over England already The second mutated variant of coronavirus announced by Matt Hancock today has already been found in London and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK from South Africa .
Ministers fear this variant , known as 501Y.V2 , is even more infectious than the one found in Kent that has been behind a recent explosion of coronavirus infections in the East , South East and London .
Mr Hancock revealed two cases of the South African variant have been detected so far in England in contacts of people who had travelled back from the country in recent weeks .
He made the announcement as he plunged millions more people in the South East of England into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in at midnight on Christmas Day .
The cases had no link between them , with one in London and the other in the North West of England , MailOnline understands , and the links to South Africa were discovered yesterday .
The fact that they were detected through random routine sampling which picks out only around one in 10 tests carried out in the UK – and that they are thought to have been infected by separate travellers – suggests there are many more cases of the variant already in Britain .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mid-October and it had become the country ’ s dominant strain by the beginning of November , research shows .
It is likely to have spread much further afield but many countries –

Two cases of the South African variant of the virus — called 501.V2 — have been detected so far in the UK
Second mutated strain to be found in as many weeks and this version is even ‘more transmissible’ than first
Matt Hancock said discovery was ‘highly concerning’ and slapped immediate travel bans on South Africa
Unrelated cases found in London and the North West suggest the virus is likely all over England already
The second mutated variant of coronavirus announced by Matt Hancock today has already been found in London and North West England after being brought to the UK from South Africa.
Ministers fear this variant, known as 501Y.V2, is even more infectious than the one found in Kent that has been behind a recent explosion of coronavirus infections in the East, South East and London.
Mr Hancock revealed two cases of the South African variant have been detected so far in England in contacts of people who had travelled back from the country in recent weeks. He made the announcement as he plunged millions more people in the South East of England into Tier Four, with the measures kicking in at midnight on Christmas Day.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The cases had no link between them, with one in London and the other in the North West of England, MailOnline understands, and the links to South Africa were discovered yesterday. The fact that they were detected through random routine sampling which picks out only around one in 10 tests carried out in the UK – and that they are thought to have been infected by separate travellers – suggests there are many more cases of the variant already in Britain.
Scientists first discovered the new variant in mid-October and it had become the country’s dominant strain by the beginning of November, research shows. It is likely to have spread much further afield but many countries –
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9082981/Matt-Hancock-plunges-parts-England-Tier-4-Boxing-Day.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--Shocking Bodycam Footage of Police Responding to Altercation Between Georgia Democrat Senate Candida

Shocking Bodycam Footage of Police Responding to Altercation Between Georgia Democrat Senate Candidate Raphael Warnock and His Wife Released

Raphael Warnock 's ex-wife addresses his character on the bodycam footage : '' This man is running for the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ about is his reputation… I have tried to keep the way he acts under wraps @ @ @ @ @ and today he crossed a line . ''
pic.twitter.com/vVSVpOi3GZ

Raphael Warnock's ex-wife addresses his character on the bodycam footage:
"This man is running for the U.S. Senate and all he cares about is his reputation… I have tried to keep the way he acts under wraps for a long time, and today he crossed a line." pic.twitter.com/vVSVpOi3GZ
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) December 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--Nancy Pelosi Tweets Shes Ready to Pass $2000 Stimulus Check

Republicans repeatedly refused to say what amount the President wanted for direct checks .
At last , the President has @ @ @ @ @ Democrats are ready to bring this to the Floor this week by unanimous consent .
@ @ @ @ @ !
t.co/Th4sztrpLV

Republicans repeatedly refused to say what amount the President wanted for direct checks. At last, the President has agreed to $2,000 — Democrats are ready to bring this to the Floor this week by unanimous consent. Let’s do it! t.co/Th4sztrpLV
— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) December 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--Vote machine was connected to a Thermostat with a hidden Modem. IP CHINA …

Tim Pool Raising Awareness On China Possibly Hacking the Election via SolarWinds Exploit and Trumps EO on Election Interference .

David v. Goliath plays out in Fyk v. FACEBOOK in the Supreme Court t.co/5qnujWwP9M
— SteelKRAKEN! Ann Vandersteel (@annvandersteel) December 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-23--WHO just changed the description of herd immunity. Now it apparently can be achieved only by vaccine

WHO just changed the description of herd immunity. Now it apparently can be achieved only by vaccines.

Who has changed the description of herd immunity at Coronavirus info site .
Now it implies that only way to @ @ @ @ @ vaccination .
This sums it up pretty well : “ Herd immunity is achieved by @ @ @ @ @ , not by exposing them to it ” “ ‘ Herd immunity ’ exists when @ @ @ @ @ population is vaccinated ”

by khell
Who has changed the description of herd immunity at Coronavirus info site. Now it implies that only way to achieve herd immunity is with vaccination.
This sums it up pretty well:
“Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“‘Herd immunity’ exists when a high percentage of the population is vaccinated”
Orwellian stuff…
Link to old version: web.archive.org/web/20201029012133/https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-serology
Link to new version: www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-serology