investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Antibodies to the new coronavirus may last only two to three months, especially in people who never

Antibodies to the new coronavirus may last only two to three months, especially in people who never showed symptoms

The clinical features and immune responses of asymptomatic individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ( SARS-CoV-2 ) have not been well described .
We studied 37 asymptomatic individuals in the Wanzhou District who were diagnosed with RT–PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections but without any relevant clinical symptoms in the preceding 14 d and during hospitalization .
Asymptomatic individuals were admitted to the government-designated Wanzhou People ’ s Hospital for centralized isolation in accordance with policy 1 .
The median duration of viral shedding in the asymptomatic group was 19 d ( interquartile range ( IQR ) , 15–26 d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ significantly longer duration of viral shedding than the symptomatic group ( log-rank P = 0.028 ) .
The virus-specific IgG levels in the asymptomatic group ( median S/CO , 3.4 ; IQR , 1.6–10.7 ) were significantly lower ( P = 0.005 ) relative to the symptomatic group ( median S/CO , 20.5 ; IQR , 5.8–38.2 ) in the acute phase .
Of asymptomatic individuals , 93.3 % ( 28/30 ) and 81.1 % ( 30/37 ) had reduction in IgG and neutralizing antibody levels , respectively , during the early convalescent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 30/31 ) and 62.2 % ( 23/37 ) of symptomatic patients .
Forty percent of asymptomatic individuals became seronegative and 12.9 % of the symptomatic group became negative for IgG in the early convalescent phase .
In addition , asymptomatic individuals exhibited lower levels of 18 pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines .
These data suggest that asymptomatic individuals had a weaker immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection .
The reduction in IgG and neutralizing antibody levels in the early convalescent phase might have implications for immunity strategy and serological surveys .
Usually not by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have forgotten about the antigen , it will stop producing antibodies .
But I ’ m not an expert , so I looked this up and found this : TA : Not all antibodies last forever .
Why does immunologic memory sometimes fade ?
Fogle : We still don ’ t know how , why and for how long immunologic memory lasts for every infectious disease .
Immunologic memory is probably one of the most complicated things we study in immunology .
What we do know for most pathogens and vaccines is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if we are exposed to something multiple times , we generate robust and long-term immunity .
But as we age , although we may develop some adaptive immunity , the memory doesn ’ t seem to last as long .
This probably has to do with the age at which we ’ re exposed to the pathogen and how good the pathogen is at inducing immunity .
It is also linked to how many times we are exposed to or vaccinated against a pathogen .
We generally generate our maximal number of memory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meaning that being exposed more than three to five times will not further increase the overall number of memory cells .

The clinical features and immune responses of asymptomatic individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have not been well described. We studied 37 asymptomatic individuals in the Wanzhou District who were diagnosed with RT–PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections but without any relevant clinical symptoms in the preceding 14 d and during hospitalization. Asymptomatic individuals were admitted to the government-designated Wanzhou People’s Hospital for centralized isolation in accordance with policy 1 . The median duration of viral shedding in the asymptomatic group was 19 d (interquartile range (IQR), 15–26 d). The asymptomatic group had a significantly longer duration of viral shedding than the symptomatic group (log-rank P = 0.028). The virus-specific IgG levels in the asymptomatic group (median S/CO, 3.4; IQR, 1.6–10.7) were significantly lower ( P = 0.005) relative to the symptomatic group (median S/CO, 20.5; IQR, 5.8–38.2) in the acute phase. Of asymptomatic individuals, 93.3% (28/30) and 81.1% (30/37) had reduction in IgG and neutralizing antibody levels, respectively, during the early convalescent phase, as compared to 96.8% (30/31) and 62.2% (23/37) of symptomatic patients. Forty percent of asymptomatic individuals became seronegative and 12.9% of the symptomatic group became negative for IgG in the early convalescent phase. In addition, asymptomatic individuals exhibited lower levels of 18 pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines. These data suggest that asymptomatic individuals had a weaker immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The reduction in IgG and neutralizing antibody levels in the early convalescent phase might have implications for immunity strategy and serological surveys.
Usually not by my understanding. If your B cells have forgotten about the antigen, it will stop producing antibodies. But I’m not an expert, so I looked this up and found this:
TA: Not all antibodies last forever. Why does immunologic memory sometimes fade?
Fogle: We still don’t know how, why and for how long immunologic memory lasts for every infectious disease. Immunologic memory is probably one of the most complicated things we study in immunology. What we do know for most pathogens and vaccines is that, especially from childhood to adolescence, if we are exposed to something multiple times, we generate robust and long-term immunity.
But as we age, although we may develop some adaptive immunity, the memory doesn’t seem to last as long. This probably has to do with the age at which we’re exposed to the pathogen and how good the pathogen is at inducing immunity. It is also linked to how many times we are exposed to or vaccinated against a pathogen. We generally generate our maximal number of memory cells with three to five exposures, meaning that being exposed more than three to five times will not further increase the overall number of memory cells.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--CNN has put up a fence outside its HQ after the building was attacked during the riots in Atlanta a

CNN has put up a fence outside its HQ after the building was attacked during the riots in Atlanta a @ @ @ @ @

CNN has put up a fence outside its HQ after the building was attacked during the riots in Atlanta a few weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/Mdabg9qmiM
— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) June 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--HIGHWIRE (DEL BIGTREE) — The HCQ Scandal: They Want To Force A COVID Vaccine On You NO MATTER WHAT

# Hydroxychloroquine studies conducted by Oxford and the WHO produced an astounding mortality rate 34 times that of other recent @ @ @ @ @ the FDA revoked emergency use of the drug in the U.S. Now , data shows @ @ @ @ @ were used on trial participants .
Dr. Jim Meehan details this developing scandal .

THE HCQ SCANDAL
#Hydroxychloroquine studies conducted by Oxford and the WHO produced an astounding mortality rate 34 times that of other recent studies. As a result the FDA revoked emergency use of the drug in the U.S. Now, data shows potentially lethal doses of HCQ were used on trial participants. Dr. Jim Meehan details this developing scandal.
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h/t DS


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Bank Collapse In America! Get Prepared For The Biggest Dollar Collapse In History

Many negative economic indicators have hit the headlines in recent weeks and months , but experts and ordinary citizens alike assume that it is only a matter of time before the US economy reverses course and experiences a significant recovery .
The time bomb that no one is looking out for , however , is the imminent dollar collapse .
When the mighty dollar crash will happen , the devastation will be severe .
Its position as a global reserve currency gives the United States significant economic and political leverage , including such benefits as lower borrowing rates from other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government and the American population .
But as the dollar crashes , the United States will experience serious economic collapse and another currency will have to fill the vacuum left in its absence .
According to goldmoney.com , the dollar could experience a total failure as early as the end of this year .
After all , most of the big name banks across the world are currently in a worse position than they were even during the Lehman Brothers disaster .
If these institutions were to collapse , financial markets would follow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made its own fortune dependent on the future of the US dollar .
One potential solution is that a reset could be implemented , which means that all nations would need to agree upon a new global currency system .
The last time this happened was during World War II , when the allied nations agreed that the US dollar would back their currencies , due largely to the fact that the United States owned the majority of the world ’ s gold supply at the time .
Now , in order to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back the greenback , which is different from the Fed ’ s dollar .
But this measure would need to be paired with additional policy that stops the inflationary financing defining the current administration ’ s response to the pandemic .
In an election year , and a particularly turbulent one at that , this shift is unlikely to come about .
It is difficult for people to imagine their national currency falling by the wayside , but historically , any fiat currency not backed by gold or silver has failed .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ typically occurs in two stages–a prolonged period of falling purchasing power , then an abrupt collapse when a currency ’ s users reject it .
The current climate of economic distress as we plummet towards a depression sets the stage for currency depreciations across the globe .
In this video , we are going to address the conditions that have gotten us to this point , assess the risks of a dollar collapse , and tell you how such an event will affect the average American citizen .
There is even the potential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be accelerated .
As cryptocurrencies rise in popularity and in use , more individuals may begin to consider the risks and weaknesses of traditional fiat currencies that are not backed by gold or silver .
Furthermore , as old standard cash and cheques are increasingly swapped out for digital payments , and modern communications technology leads to the rapid spread of information , fiat currencies will seem less and less like the most sensible option .
Remember , it still remains possible that the US Treasury pushes a reset , likely using greenbacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , this would also require that the government stop propping up its populations with injections of cash , and this is unlikely to happen as the pandemic rages on and fears of a second wave amidst reopenings intensify .
Moreover , replacement currencies often fail unless government financing by monetary expansion is abandoned .
Alternatively , the US Treasury still holds more than 8,000 tonnes of gold .
The country could very well reintroduce gold convertibility for the greenbacks .
But this leaves the US vulnerable to competition from other global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up a gold convertibility of its own , one with potentially more power .
For one , China boasts the largest gold mining operation of any country in the world .
Estimates pin the amount of gold they have mined since 2010 at around 4,200 tonnes .
Second , gold and silver refining processes are fully under control of the Chinese government , and next to no refined gold kilo bars are allowed to be exported .
Third , Chinese citizens were encouraged by the government to get their hands on physical gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shanghai Gold Exchange ( SGE ) was established .
In the first eight years of its existence , the SGE transferred an estimated 17,200 tonnes of gold into public ownership .
Fourth , China ’ s allies in the region , particularly other powers like Russia , have been gathering stockpiles of gold and getting rid of US dollars .
Finally , China essentially runs physical gold markets .
For more economic collapse news visit our website : www.epiceconomist.com

Many negative economic indicators have hit the headlines in recent weeks and months, but experts and ordinary citizens alike assume that it is only a matter of time before the US economy reverses course and experiences a significant recovery. The time bomb that no one is looking out for, however, is the imminent dollar collapse. When the mighty dollar crash will happen, the devastation will be severe. Its position as a global reserve currency gives the United States significant economic and political leverage, including such benefits as lower borrowing rates from other countries, which positively impacts both the government and the American population. But as the dollar crashes, the United States will experience serious economic collapse and another currency will have to fill the vacuum left in its absence.
According to goldmoney.com, the dollar could experience a total failure as early as the end of this year. After all, most of the big name banks across the world are currently in a worse position than they were even during the Lehman Brothers disaster. If these institutions were to collapse, financial markets would follow. Unfortunately, the Fed has already made its own fortune dependent on the future of the US dollar.
One potential solution is that a reset could be implemented, which means that all nations would need to agree upon a new global currency system. The last time this happened was during World War II, when the allied nations agreed that the US dollar would back their currencies, due largely to the fact that the United States owned the majority of the world’s gold supply at the time. Now, in order to maintain control, the US could bring back the greenback, which is different from the Fed’s dollar. But this measure would need to be paired with additional policy that stops the inflationary financing defining the current administration’s response to the pandemic. In an election year, and a particularly turbulent one at that, this shift is unlikely to come about.
It is difficult for people to imagine their national currency falling by the wayside, but historically, any fiat currency not backed by gold or silver has failed. It seems to be an inevitability. This typically occurs in two stages–a prolonged period of falling purchasing power, then an abrupt collapse when a currency’s users reject it. The current climate of economic distress as we plummet towards a depression sets the stage for currency depreciations across the globe.
In this video, we are going to address the conditions that have gotten us to this point, assess the risks of a dollar collapse, and tell you how such an event will affect the average American citizen.
There is even the potential that the dollar’s crash could be accelerated. As cryptocurrencies rise in popularity and in use, more individuals may begin to consider the risks and weaknesses of traditional fiat currencies that are not backed by gold or silver. Furthermore, as old standard cash and cheques are increasingly swapped out for digital payments, and modern communications technology leads to the rapid spread of information, fiat currencies will seem less and less like the most sensible option.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Remember, it still remains possible that the US Treasury pushes a reset, likely using
greenbacks, which were last issued in 1971. However, this would also require that the government stop propping up its populations with injections of cash, and this is unlikely to happen as the pandemic rages on and fears of a second wave amidst reopenings intensify. Moreover, replacement currencies often fail unless government financing by monetary expansion is abandoned.
Alternatively, the US Treasury still holds more than 8,000 tonnes of gold. The country could very well reintroduce gold convertibility for the greenbacks. But this leaves the US vulnerable to competition from other global superpowers like China, which could put up a gold convertibility of its own, one with potentially more power.
For one, China boasts the largest gold mining operation of any country in the world. Estimates pin the amount of gold they have mined since 2010 at around 4,200 tonnes. Second, gold and silver refining processes are fully under control of the Chinese government, and next to no refined gold kilo bars are allowed to be exported. Third, Chinese citizens were encouraged by the government to get their hands on physical gold back in 2002, the year the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was established. In the first eight years of its existence, the SGE transferred an estimated 17,200 tonnes of gold into public ownership. Fourth, China’s allies in the region, particularly other powers like Russia, have been gathering stockpiles of gold and getting rid of US dollars. Finally, China essentially runs physical gold markets.
For more economic collapse news visit our website: www.epiceconomist.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--3 people reported dead and many more stabbed in Reading, UK.

3 people reported dead and many more stabbed in reading town forbury gardens ( video ) Emergency services are attending @ @ @ @ @ ( June 20 ) .
Multiple police vehicles are in the area as there are @ @ @ @ @ unknown incident .
There have also been images of multiple air ambulances posted as they @ @ @ @ @ .
Thames Valley Police are dealing with a serious incident in Reading at the site @ @ @ @ @ been taking place .
The leader of Reading council has asked people to stay clear @ @ @ @

3 people reported dead and many more stabbed in reading town forbury gardens (video)
Emergency services are attending an incident in Reading tonight (June 20). Multiple police vehicles are in the area as there are reports of casualties following an unknown incident. There have also been images of multiple air ambulances posted as they landed in nearby Kings Meadow.
www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/forbury-gardens-reading-stabbing-live-18459832.amp?__twitter_impression=true
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Thames Valley Police are dealing with a serious incident in Reading at the site where #BlackLivesMatter protests have been taking place. The leader of Reading council has asked people to stay clear of the area.
h/t Tess


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--JOHN YOO: I DIDN’T SUPPORT TRUMP IN 2016 AND “BOY, WAS I WRONG.”

“ My study of the separation of powers , and my time in the three branches of government , led me to worry that Trump would test , evade , or even violate the Constitution , ” he added in his upcoming book , Defender in Chief .
Now , as Trump campaigns for reelection on a platform of tough executive orders , expanding conservative voices on federal courts , and beating back impeachment , Yoo is telling a different story .
“ Boy was I wrong .
Trump campaigns like a populist but governs like a constitutional conservative , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next month and published by All Points Books , an imprint of St. Martin ’ s Publishing Group .
The publisher provided Secrets with an advance copy of the book set for release July 28 .
Over the course of 300 pages comparing Trump moves to the wishes of the Founding Fathers , Yoo discovered that despite constant criticism that Trump was destroying the Constitution , he was actually propping it up and using it to defend the presidency .
“ Rather than a sword , the Constitution has become Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had any previous government or military office or public policy experience , Trump has defended the constitutional text , structure , and design for an independent , vigorous executive , ” writes Yoo .

Berkeley Law professor: Trump saving the Constitution, ‘his greatest service.’
“My study of the separation of powers, and my time in the three branches of government, led me to worry that Trump would test, evade, or even violate the Constitution,” he added in his upcoming book, Defender in Chief.
Now, as Trump campaigns for reelection on a platform of tough executive orders, expanding conservative voices on federal courts, and beating back impeachment, Yoo is telling a different story.
“Boy was I wrong. Trump campaigns like a populist but governs like a constitutional conservative,” he wrote in the book due next month and published by All Points Books, an imprint of St. Martin’s Publishing Group. The publisher provided Secrets with an advance copy of the book set for release July 28.
Over the course of 300 pages comparing Trump moves to the wishes of the Founding Fathers, Yoo discovered that despite constant criticism that Trump was destroying the Constitution, he was actually propping it up and using it to defend the presidency.
“Rather than a sword, the Constitution has become Trump’s shield. Even though he had not had any previous government or military office or public policy experience, Trump has defended the constitutional text, structure, and design for an independent, vigorous executive,” writes Yoo.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--REASON TV: Why Bad Cops Aren’t Punished: The Case Against Qualified Immunity.

Following the police killing of George Floyd , the once-obscure legal doctrine known as qualified immunity has been thrust into @ @ @ @ @ judge-made doctrine effectively shields police from most civil lawsuits unless their specific conduct has been @ @ @ @ @ unconstitutional in a previous case .
“ You know , there ’ s an old @ @ @ @ @ law is no excuse , ” says William Baude , a professor at the University @ @ @ @ @ “ The one group of people for whom it is an excuse are the government @ @ @ @ @ are and aren ’ t supposed to do .
”

Following the police killing of George Floyd, the once-obscure legal doctrine known as qualified immunity has been thrust into the national spotlight.
The judge-made doctrine effectively shields police from most civil lawsuits unless their specific conduct has been “clearly established” as unconstitutional in a previous case.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“You know, there’s an old adage, ignorance of the law is no excuse,” says William Baude, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School. “The one group of people for whom it is an excuse are the government officials who…should know what they are and aren’t supposed to do.”
reason.com/video/why-bad-cops-arent-punished-the-case-against-qualified-immunity/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Chicago area woman left hand sanitizer on car’s dashboard in the sun all day. It caught fire and des

Chicago area woman left hand sanitizer on car’s dashboard in the sun all day. It caught fire and destroyed the car.

WAUKEGAN , Ill. ( CBS ) — With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic , most people carry hand sanitizer @ @ @ @ @ woman says be careful where you keep it .
The combination of a liquid in @ @ @ @ @ in the sun caused a fire in her car .
A neighbor noticed the smoke @ @ @ @ @ .
“ It looks like I have tinted windows , ” said Kimane Hall .
@ @ @ @ @ ’ t .
It ’ s just the smoke that was in my vehicle.
” @ @ @ @ @ is badly melted , charred and crisped .
The windshield is black and splintered .

WAUKEGAN, Ill. (CBS) — With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, most people carry hand sanitizer everywhere, but one fortunate woman says be careful where you keep it. The combination of a liquid in a clear bottle sitting directly in the sun caused a fire in her car.
A neighbor noticed the smoke and started banging on doors.
“It looks like I have tinted windows,” said Kimane Hall. “Unfortunately, I don’t. It’s just the smoke that was in my vehicle.”
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The inside of her car is badly melted, charred and crisped. The windshield is black and splintered.
chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/06/19/hand-sanitizer-sun-vehicle-fire-waukegan/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Why Big Oil Won’t Be Buying Up Struggling Companies

• Don ’ t expect the oil price rout to trigger a wave of M & A activity any time soon .
• The last Big Oil M & A wave turned into a disaster for the acquiring companies .
• There ’ s a very real possibility that 2020 could be the slowest in the history of mergers in the sector Under normal circumstances , energy downturns create a perfect opportunity for deep-pocketed oil and gas heavyweights to land prime assets on the cheap .
A good case in point : the last oil bust of 2016 was followed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & A deals in the sector including the $ 60B tie-up between Royal Dutch Shell ( NYSE : RDS.A ) and BG Group , Canadian Oil Sands and Suncor EnergyEnergy , as well as a handful that fell through including the proposed merger between Halliburton ( NYSE : HAL ) and Baker Hughes ( NYSE : BKR ) .
But these are hardly normal circumstances and don ’ t expect the oil price rout to trigger a wave of M & A activity any time soon .
That ’ s according to Cowen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said that the majority of Big Oil executives will likely be too gun-shy to pull the trigger on the numerous distressed assets that are becoming available as the downturn drags on .
The Cowen team , led by Jason Gabelman , has pointed out how the last M & A wave turned into a disaster for the acquiring companies .
In April , Royal Dutch Shell cut its dividend to US $ 0.16 per ordinary share from US $ 0.47 , for a 66 % cut .
That marked the first time the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a testament of just how severe the oil massacre has been , which is what Shell blamed in its press release .
However , another culprit could be to blame for the dramatic cut : the company ’ s 2016 acquisition of BG Group , which set it back $ 60B .
Occidental Petroleum ’ s ( NYSE : OXY ) $ 55B leveraged purchase of Anadarko has become the poster-child of oil and gas mergers gone bad .
The deal has turned into a complete disaster , leaving the company in deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water cooler wisecracks of how it could itself get acquired at a fraction of what it paid for Anadarko .
Cowen also pointed to BP Plc.
’ s ( NYSE : BP ) extremely high debt , though it might have less to do with its 2018 merger with BHP Billiton for $ 10.5B and more to do with its Deepwater Horizon oil spill which has cost it a staggering $ 65B in clean-up costs and legal fees over the years .
BP ’ s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 is way higher than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average of 0.47 , and the highest among the oil supermajors .
So far , BP has maintained its juicy dividend ( fwd yield of 10.64 % ) but keeps piling on debt after recently taking on $ 12B in hybrid bonds , thus raising genuine questions about its sustainability .
Cowen though says that oil majors like Chevron ( NYSE : CVX ) and Total ( NYSE : TOT ) with relatively strong balance sheets could go for cheap assets such as GALP Energia ( GALP.Portugal ) or BP ’ s stake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Evidence coming from the oil and gas M & A space so far appears to support Cowen ’ s sentiments .
In April , a report by Enverus ( formerly DrillingInfo ) revealed that U.S. upstream M & A deals for the first quarter only amounted to $ 770 million , less than 1/10th the average deal amount recorded quarterly over the previous decade .
The largest dollar transaction was a deal by Alpine Energy Capital , which purchased Approach Resources ’ Midland Basin assets for $ 193 million .
That compares very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ merger or the $ 9 billion tie-up between Marathon Oil and Andeavor Logistics , both consummated last year .
Further , Enverus said that only ~ $ 4.7B in upstream deals were available in the market by the end of the quarter , the majority of which were located in the Eagle Shale .
There ’ s a very real possibility that 2020 could be the slowest in the history of mergers in the sector if the other three quarters track Q1 numbers closely .
Instead of mergers , oil and gas companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut capex in a bid to preserve liquidity .
This is a trend we clearly witnessed during the last earnings season .
Not everybody shares Cowen ’ s bearish M & A outlook though .
Goldman Sachs analyst Michele DellaVigna has told Barron ’ s that the highly fragmented U.S. shale industry could be a candidate for a spate of consolidations .
DellaVigna , though , has conceded that we are unlikely to see a repeat of the megamergers of the 1990s ; however , he says there ’ s a financial case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sector like U.S. shale that has previously lacked cost discipline : “ The oil industry has delivered its best corporate returns in periods of consolidation , financial tightening and rising barriers to entry .
We believe this environment ( and shareholder pressure for de-carbonisation ) could engender a similar phase of consolidation and capital discipline , as in the late ’ 90s .
”

By Alex Kimani
Don’t expect the oil price rout to trigger a wave of M&A activity any time soon.
The last Big Oil M&A wave turned into a disaster for the acquiring companies.
There’s a very real possibility that 2020 could be the slowest in the history of mergers in the sector
Under normal circumstances, energy downturns create a perfect opportunity for deep-pocketed oil and gas heavyweights to land prime assets on the cheap. A good case in point: the last oil bust of 2016 was followed by a sizable number of huge M&A deals in the sector including the $60B tie-up between Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) and BG Group, Canadian Oil Sands and Suncor EnergyEnergy, as well as a handful that fell through including the proposed merger between Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) and Baker Hughes (NYSE:BKR). But these are hardly normal circumstances and don’t expect the oil price rout to trigger a wave of M&A activity any time soon.
That’s according to Cowen analysts via Barron’s who have said that the majority of Big Oil executives will likely be too gun-shy to pull the trigger on the numerous distressed assets that are becoming available as the downturn drags on.
M&A disaster
The Cowen team, led by Jason Gabelman, has pointed out how the last M&A wave turned into a disaster for the acquiring companies.
In April, Royal Dutch Shell cut its dividend to US$0.16 per ordinary share from US$0.47, for a 66% cut. That marked the first time the company cut the dividend since WWII, a testament of just how severe the oil massacre has been, which is what Shell blamed in its press release. However, another culprit could be to blame for the dramatic cut: the company’s 2016 acquisition of BG Group, which set it back $60B.
Occidental Petroleum’s (NYSE:OXY) $55B leveraged purchase of Anadarko has become the poster-child of oil and gas mergers gone bad. The deal has turned into a complete disaster, leaving the company in deep distress over its mountain of debt and water cooler wisecracks of how it could itself get acquired at a fraction of what it paid for Anadarko. Cowen also pointed to BP Plc.’s (NYSE:BP) extremely high debt, though it might have less to do with its 2018 merger with BHP Billiton for $10.5B and more to do with its Deepwater Horizon oil spill which has cost it a staggering $65B in clean-up costs and legal fees over the years.
BP’s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 is way higher than the oil and gas sector’s average of 0.47, and the highest among the oil supermajors. So far, BP has maintained its juicy dividend (fwd yield of 10.64%) but keeps piling on debt after recently taking on $12B in hybrid bonds, thus raising genuine questions about its sustainability.
Source: Y-Charts
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Cowen though says that oil majors like Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Total (NYSE:TOT) with relatively strong balance sheets could go for cheap assets such as GALP Energia (GALP.Portugal) or BP’s stake in a gas project in Oman.
Evidence coming from the oil and gas M&A space so far appears to support Cowen’s sentiments.
In April, a report by Enverus (formerly DrillingInfo) revealed that U.S. upstream M&A deals for the first quarter only amounted to $770 million, less than 1/10th the average deal amount recorded quarterly over the previous decade.
The largest dollar transaction was a deal by Alpine Energy Capital, which purchased Approach Resources’ Midland Basin assets for $193 million. That compares very poorly with the $55 billion Occidental-Anadarko merger or the $9 billion tie-up between Marathon Oil and Andeavor Logistics, both consummated last year.
Further, Enverus said that only ~$4.7B in upstream deals were available in the market by the end of the quarter, the majority of which were located in the Eagle Shale. There’s a very real possibility that 2020 could be the slowest in the history of mergers in the sector if the other three quarters track Q1 numbers closely.
Shale opportunities
Instead of mergers, oil and gas companies prefer to maintain the all-important dividend or cut capex in a bid to preserve liquidity. This is a trend we clearly witnessed during the last earnings season.
Not everybody shares Cowen’s bearish M&A outlook though. Goldman Sachs analyst Michele DellaVigna has told Barron’s that the highly fragmented U.S. shale industry could be a candidate for a spate of consolidations.
DellaVigna, though, has conceded that we are unlikely to see a repeat of the megamergers of the 1990s; however, he says there’s a financial case to be made for mergers especially in a sector like U.S. shale that has previously lacked cost discipline:
“The oil industry has delivered its best corporate returns in periods of consolidation, financial tightening and rising barriers to entry. We believe this environment (and shareholder pressure for de-carbonisation) could engender a similar phase of consolidation and capital discipline, as in the late ’90s.”
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--“The Day Everything Changed” Just Happened | Alasdair Macleod

Alasdair Macleod , Head of Research at GoldMoney , returns to Liberty and Finance / Reluctant Preppers to alert us @ @ @ @ @ we have recently passed an inflection nexus of numerous critical indicators , signaling a probable @ @ @ @ @ system within months , and a collapse of the USD this year .
Alasdair also @ @ @ @ @ gold & silver , buying land , and protecting ourselves from the global tidal wave @ @ @ @ @ lives .
Alasdair Macleod is head of research for GoldMoney .
He also runs FinanceAndEconomics.org @ @ @ @ @ sound money and demystifying finance and economics .
He has a background as a stockbroker @ @ @ @ @

Liberty and Finance, Released on 6/19/20
Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney, returns to Liberty and Finance / Reluctant Preppers to alert us that his latest research indicates we have recently passed an inflection nexus of numerous critical indicators, signaling a probable systemic failure of the banking system within months, and a collapse of the USD this year.
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Alasdair also answers viewers’ questions about gold & silver, buying land, and protecting ourselves from the global tidal wave of risk sweeping over our lives.
Alasdair Macleod is head of research for GoldMoney. He also runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. He has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Australia’s Sky News TELLS IT LIKE IT IS! FINALLY a news outlet ACTUALLY SPEAKS TRUTH!

THIS IS A MUST WATCH !
Sky News host Rita Panahi has warned people to take a stand against the @ @ @ @ @ what constitutes a peaceful protest after widespread violence took place in rallies across the United @ @ @ @ @ love to redefine words , ” she said .
“ Now the left is redefining @ @ @ @ @ Any protest that has seen multiple murders , bashings , widespread looting and destruction of @ @ @ @ @ ”

THIS IS A MUST WATCH!
Sky News host Rita Panahi has warned people to take a stand against the Left’s definition of what constitutes a peaceful protest after widespread violence took place in rallies across the United States.
“The left love to redefine words,” she said.
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“Now the left is redefining what peaceful means.
“Any protest that has seen multiple murders, bashings, widespread looting and destruction of property is not peaceful.”
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--America is now a FAILED STATE… no rule of law, no police, no leadership, no free speech, no function

America is now a FAILED STATE… no rule of law, no police, no leadership, no free speech, no functioning markets and no equal protection under the law… YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN

In America , you can call 911 and the police will never show up if your property is in or near a Black Lives Matter terrorist zone , which are now de facto “ police no-go zones ” on U.S. soil .
In America , there are no functioning markets .
Prices of stocks and bonds are set entirely by Federal Reserve money printing and interest rate manipulations .
Rational investing has been obliterated .
Market-driven price discovery is a distant memory .
( This will end badly . )
In America , voting for change doesn ’ t work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you demand .
That ’ s because the politicians ignore the voters but adore the rioters .
In America , there is no equal protection under the law .
When a group of violent terrorists seize your city , the “ leaders ” ( the mayor and governor ) will order police to evacuate , leaving you to fend for yourself against terrorist rule .
In America , free speech has been annihilated .
The left-wing fanatics who run the tech giants now decide which views are “ offensive , ” and those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banned while their own radical left-wing propaganda is allowed to flourish .
In America , there is no political leadership whatsoever .
The Democrats are traitors and the Republicans are feckless , spineless lose-o-crats who are utterly incapable of asserting even an inkling of leadership or the assertion of the principles they ( falsely ) claim to represent .
In America , the U.S. government will print money and pay you to not work , then brain dead U.S .
Senators ( named Mitch McConnell ) will wonder why small businesses can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up their enormous unemployment benefits and get a job that pays less than what people are collecting from the government .
Only in America would the government pay people to avoid working , then panic as the economy craters because the labor pool has disappeared .
In America , the food supply is filled with toxic chemicals that are all approved by corrupt government regulators , poisoning the population and leading to insane health care costs that are bankrupting the nation at every level .
In America , the education system has collapsed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where students are taught hatred ( against their country ) , bigotry ( against whites ) and victimization tactics to deploy during riots and civil unrest .
The universities have essentially churned out a generation of terrorists who destroy , not citizens who create .
In America , the entire legislative branch of the country is ruled by a corrupt Big Pharma drug cartel that controls all “ science ” and tells the medical journals to publish fraudulent , rigged studies that destroy the credibility of safe , low-cost drugs that could help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
In response , U.S. lawmakers bow down before Big Pharma and betray the American people , because the pharma lobby can write million-dollar checks to re-election campaigns .
In America , the FBI kneels before actual terrorists while running its own “ staged ” terror plots across the country to try to pretend it ’ s still a law enforcement agency .
It isn ’ t .
In America , treasonous former officials like Hillary Clinton , James Comey and Andrew McCabe go free , even after committing crimes of treason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who did nothing wrong ( like Roger Stone ) are persecuted and charged with crimes that can earn them life in prison .
In America , violent looters , arsonists and rioters who are arrested for committing such crimes are universally set free by left-learning District Attorneys , because Leftists protect left-leaning terror groups in America .
There is no rule of law , and there is no equal justice under the law .
In America , entire police precincts surrender their territory to Antifa / Black Lives Matter terrorists , handing over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standing down and allowing violence to explode .
In America , the fanaticism cult of left-wing lunacy is so powerful that we ’ re told “ silence is violence , ” while we ’ re also told that the actual violence of the lunatic Left is “ peaceful and tolerant.
” In other words , if you are silent and peaceful , you are accused of “ violence.
” But if you are committing actual violence , you are described as “ peaceful ” by the media .
In America , the food @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the coronavirus , but left-wing mobs are openly encouraged to gather in the streets , with the media claiming the pandemic isn ’ t as important as looting , rioting and committing acts of arson in public .
So why is social distancing more important than the national food supply , then ?
In America , when you vote for any political leader to represent your interests , the moment they take office , they only represent one of two things : If they ’ re a Democrat , they represent anarchy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Republican , they represent corporate profits and nothing else .
YOU are never represented , no matter whom you vote for .
In America , the borders aren ’ t protected and any illegal alien can vote in an election , no I.D .
required .
Any idea of protecting the process of democracy has long been abandoned .
In America , the most devastating looters aren ’ t the Black Lives Matter lunatics in the streets ; it ’ s actually the Federal Reserve that ’ s printing trillions of dollars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the money you ’ ve worked to earn and save .
Each day , Americans awaken to “ silent fiscal looting ” that has drained their bank accounts while they slept , and no one riots because it all happens silently , and the media has zero interest in covering it .
In America , when new jurors are appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court in the hopes that they will represent the U.S. Constitution , they end up only representing the interests of the state , and nothing else .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ justices is now a pathetic joke .
In America , if you run an honest online business and build an audience of followers over a decade of effort , you can be destroyed literally overnight by the tech giants who pull your advertising revenue , cancel your channels and de-platform all your content… even if you merely disagreed with the insanity of the cult-like Left .
In America , you can lose your job for not declaring that you support Black Lives Matter .
Because “ silence is violence , ” which means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Remember when the Left used to place “ COEXISTENCE ” bumper stickers on their cars ?
Those days are long gone .
Now it ’ s more like , “ DESTROY THE DEPLORABLES !
” In America , the masses are too fat , too medicated and too brainwashed by the deceptive media to rise up and defend anything .
They instantly surrender to every insane demand by the lunatic Left , and they will gladly surrender all their freedoms and their entire nation for one more box of Pop-Tarts .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
• The treasonous church pastors who decided it was more important for their churches to be popular than to operate on principle .
• The treasonous members of Congress who amassed their own personal fortunes via insider trading while the rest of America burned .
• The treasonous tech billionaires that conspired with China to silence all pro-America voices while working to foment hatred and division for profit .
• The lazy , pathetic , overfed American people who retreated to comfort and acquiescence , unwilling to take a stand for anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next airing of Judge Judy .
• The lazy , pathetic American workers who decided they were too good to work and didn ’ t have to show up on time , expecting to be paid for not working ( which the government happily obliged ) .
“ They have lost the lust for freedom , the demand for liberty , ” writes the editor of TwelveRound.com .
“ They seek to placate their persecutors and appear reasonable on Twitter and Facebook when the demands of the mob and the government have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CEOs who caved to left-wing lunacy out of fear of losing sales for taking a stand for America .
See the full list of corporations and brands that now actively fund terror-linked organizations in America .
• The communist teachers and college professors who exploited their positions of influence to indoctrinate an entire generation of youth with bigotry , hatred , lies and deceit… all in an effort to usher in a communist overthrow of the United States of America .
• The stupid , mindless internet users who continue to use Google @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after knowing that they ’ re being censored , surveiled and tracked .
Instead of shifting to alternate platforms of freedom , they censor themselves to conform with the obedience training of the lunatic Left .
• The food and pesticide corporations that poisoned the food supply for profit , feeding the masses nothing but toxic chemicals that promote chronic degenerative disease .
• The child-abusing parents who pushed their children into transgenderism , parading them around as trophies of progressivism while chemical and physically maiming their own children for life .
All @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” • The corrupt , greed-driven doctors who took money from Big Pharma to mass poison the entire nation with toxic prescription medications and chemotherapy poisons .
And then they wonder why everyone acts like they ’ ve been lobotomized .
Because America is a failed state , things are going to start disintegrating at an accelerated rate .
We ’ re all going to start seeing : • Total collapse of the rule of law ( anarchy , chaos , cops quitting en masse , etc. )
.
• Financial collapse , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , during which most U.S. cities will be gutted • Bank failures and the collapse of financial institutions • The rise of private security contractors to protect businesses with armed , military-trained guards • Increases in child trafficking and child kidnappings for the trafficking trade • An explosion in homelessness and tent cities as destitution and despair spreads across the nation • Civil war and secession as the nation fragments into smaller nation-states .
As I ’ ve said before , Trump is the last President of the United States of America as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a time of tremendous evil and destruction , and almost no one is willing to stand against it .
That ’ s the great failure of America : The failure to defend her .

by: Mike Adams
(Natural News) America is now a failed state.
In America, you can call 911 and the police will never show up if your property is in or near a Black Lives Matter terrorist zone, which are now de facto “police no-go zones” on U.S. soil.
In America, there are no functioning markets. Prices of stocks and bonds are set entirely by Federal Reserve money printing and interest rate manipulations. Rational investing has been obliterated. Market-driven price discovery is a distant memory. (This will end badly.)
In America, voting for change doesn’t work. Rioting for change gets you everything you demand. That’s because the politicians ignore the voters but adore the rioters.
In America, there is no equal protection under the law. When a group of violent terrorists seize your city, the “leaders” (the mayor and governor) will order police to evacuate, leaving you to fend for yourself against terrorist rule.
In America, free speech has been annihilated. The left-wing fanatics who run the tech giants now decide which views are “offensive,” and those voices, websites and platforms are all banned while their own radical left-wing propaganda is allowed to flourish.
In America, there is no political leadership whatsoever. The Democrats are traitors and the Republicans are feckless, spineless lose-o-crats who are utterly incapable of asserting even an inkling of leadership or the assertion of the principles they (falsely) claim to represent.
In America, the U.S. government will print money and pay you to not work, then brain dead U.S. Senators (named Mitch McConnell) will wonder why small businesses can’t find workers who want to give up their enormous unemployment benefits and get a job that pays less than what people are collecting from the government. Only in America would the government pay people to avoid working, then panic as the economy craters because the labor pool has disappeared.
In America, the food supply is filled with toxic chemicals that are all approved by corrupt government regulators, poisoning the population and leading to insane health care costs that are bankrupting the nation at every level.
In America, the education system has collapsed into a cult-like communist indoctrination system, where students are taught hatred (against their country), bigotry (against whites) and victimization tactics to deploy during riots and civil unrest. The universities have essentially churned out a generation of terrorists who destroy, not citizens who create.
In America, the entire legislative branch of the country is ruled by a corrupt Big Pharma drug cartel that controls all “science” and tells the medical journals to publish fraudulent, rigged studies that destroy the credibility of safe, low-cost drugs that could help save millions of lives from a global pandemic. In response, U.S. lawmakers bow down before Big Pharma and betray the American people, because the pharma lobby can write million-dollar checks to re-election campaigns.
In America, the FBI kneels before actual terrorists while running its own “staged” terror plots across the country to try to pretend it’s still a law enforcement agency. It isn’t.
In America, treasonous former officials like Hillary Clinton, James Comey and Andrew McCabe go free, even after committing crimes of treason against the nation, while innocent people who did nothing wrong (like Roger Stone) are persecuted and charged with crimes that can earn them life in prison.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In America, violent looters, arsonists and rioters who are arrested for committing such crimes are universally set free by left-learning District Attorneys, because Leftists protect left-leaning terror groups in America. There is no rule of law, and there is no equal justice under the law.
In America, entire police precincts surrender their territory to Antifa / Black Lives Matter terrorists, handing over tactical real estate to left-wing mobs while standing down and allowing violence to explode.
In America, the fanaticism cult of left-wing lunacy is so powerful that we’re told “silence is violence,” while we’re also told that the actual violence of the lunatic Left is “peaceful and tolerant.” In other words, if you are silent and peaceful, you are accused of “violence.” But if you are committing actual violence, you are described as “peaceful” by the media.
In America, the food processing plants are shut down over fears of the coronavirus, but left-wing mobs are openly encouraged to gather in the streets, with the media claiming the pandemic isn’t as important as looting, rioting and committing acts of arson in public. So why is social distancing more important than the national food supply, then?
In America, when you vote for any political leader to represent your interests, the moment they take office, they only represent one of two things: If they’re a Democrat, they represent anarchy and communism; if they’re a Republican, they represent corporate profits and nothing else. YOU are never represented, no matter whom you vote for.
In America, the borders aren’t protected and any illegal alien can vote in an election, no I.D. required. Any idea of protecting the process of democracy has long been abandoned.
In America, the most devastating looters aren’t the Black Lives Matter lunatics in the streets; it’s actually the Federal Reserve that’s printing trillions of dollars in fiat currency, stealing the value of the money you’ve worked to earn and save. Each day, Americans awaken to “silent fiscal looting” that has drained their bank accounts while they slept, and no one riots because it all happens silently, and the media has zero interest in covering it.
In America, when new jurors are appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court in the hopes that they will represent the U.S. Constitution, they end up only representing the interests of the state, and nothing else. The idea of “originalist” Supreme Court justices is now a pathetic joke.
In America, if you run an honest online business and build an audience of followers over a decade of effort, you can be destroyed literally overnight by the tech giants who pull your advertising revenue, cancel your channels and de-platform all your content… even if you merely disagreed with the insanity of the cult-like Left.
In America, you can lose your job for not declaring that you support Black Lives Matter. Because “silence is violence,” which means your obedience is demanded… or else. (Remember when the Left used to place “COEXISTENCE” bumper stickers on their cars? Those days are long gone. Now it’s more like, “DESTROY THE DEPLORABLES!”
In America, the masses are too fat, too medicated and too brainwashed by the deceptive media to rise up and defend anything. They instantly surrender to every insane demand by the lunatic Left, and they will gladly surrender all their freedoms and their entire nation for one more box of Pop-Tarts.
America is a failed state.
And who turned America into a failed state?
The treasonous church pastors who decided it was more important for their churches to be popular than to operate on principle.
The treasonous members of Congress who amassed their own personal fortunes via insider trading while the rest of America burned.
The treasonous tech billionaires that conspired with China to silence all pro-America voices while working to foment hatred and division for profit.
The lazy, pathetic, overfed American people who retreated to comfort and acquiescence, unwilling to take a stand for anything that mattered because it might interfere with the next airing of Judge Judy.
The lazy, pathetic American workers who decided they were too good to work and didn’t have to show up on time, expecting to be paid for not working (which the government happily obliged). “They have lost the lust for freedom, the demand for liberty,” writes the editor of TwelveRound.com. “They seek to placate their persecutors and appear reasonable on Twitter and Facebook when the demands of the mob and the government have become completely unreasonable.”
The corporate CEOs who caved to left-wing lunacy out of fear of losing sales for taking a stand for America. See the full list of corporations and brands that now actively fund terror-linked organizations in America.
The communist teachers and college professors who exploited their positions of influence to indoctrinate an entire generation of youth with bigotry, hatred, lies and deceit… all in an effort to usher in a communist overthrow of the United States of America.
The stupid, mindless internet users who continue to use Google, Facebook, YouTube and Twitter even after knowing that they’re being censored, surveiled and tracked. Instead of shifting to alternate platforms of freedom, they censor themselves to conform with the obedience training of the lunatic Left.
The food and pesticide corporations that poisoned the food supply for profit, feeding the masses nothing but toxic chemicals that promote chronic degenerative disease.
The child-abusing parents who pushed their children into transgenderism, parading them around as trophies of progressivism while chemical and physically maiming their own children for life. All in the name of “progress!”
The corrupt, greed-driven doctors who took money from Big Pharma to mass poison the entire nation with toxic prescription medications and chemotherapy poisons. And then they wonder why everyone acts like they’ve been lobotomized.
So here’s what’s coming next:
Because America is a failed state, things are going to start disintegrating at an accelerated rate. We’re all going to start seeing:
Failed infrastructure (power grid, telecommunications, water supplies, etc.).
Total collapse of the rule of law (anarchy, chaos, cops quitting en masse, etc.).
Financial collapse, followed by an explosion of nationwide riots, during which most U.S. cities will be gutted
Executions and kidnappings
Bank failures and the collapse of financial institutions
Political anarchy, attempted revolutions, assassinations of key leaders, etc.
The rise of private security contractors to protect businesses with armed, military-trained guards
A worsening of drug abuse and suicides
Increases in child trafficking and child kidnappings for the trafficking trade
Rapidly escalating censorship, including browser-based blocking of targeted websites
An explosion in homelessness and tent cities as destitution and despair spreads across the nation
Civil war and secession as the nation fragments into smaller nation-states.
As I’ve said before, Trump is the last President of the United States of America as we know it. We are entering a time of tremendous evil and destruction, and almost no one is willing to stand against it. That’s the great failure of America: The failure to defend her.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--BLM rioters in Olympia, Washington vandalized their mayor’s home in an act of “domestic terrorism” …

BLM rioters in Olympia, Washington vandalized their mayor’s home in an act of “domestic terrorism” … but she still DEFENDS them

( Natural News ) The home of Cheryl Selby , Democratic mayor of Olympia , Washington , was vandalized by Black Lives Matter rioters .
Selby then described the incident as “ domestic terrorism.
” On the night of June 19 , a large group of black-clad rioters made their way into Olympia ’ s South Capitol neighborhood , where Mayor Selby resides .
There , the rioters began chanting “ abolish the police.
” One individual – whom the mayor believes to be a woman – went up to Selby ’ s home and spray painted “ BLM , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” onto the mayor ’ s front door and front-facing exteriors .
Selby and her family were not home that night , but some of her neighbors quickly alerted her to the presence of the rioters .
Mayor Selby still targeted despite being sympathetic to the BLM movement “ I ’ m really trying to process this , ” said Selby to The Olympian over the phone .
“ It ’ s like domestic terrorism .
It ’ s unfair.
” “ It hurts when you ’ re giving so much to your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rioters eventually headed off , after one man with a metal paddle-like object told the group to leave , threatening them with violence if they didn ’ t respect Selby ’ s property .
This is not the first time Selby ’ s house was targeted by demonstrators .
A group of protesters once gathered in her neighborhood two years ago during May Day to spread leaflets and direct chants at her .
( Related : Seattle Police Chief : Cops can ’ t respond to “ rapes , robberies and all sorts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zone . )
Selby has been regarded as generally supportive of police reform .
She has touted the fact that the Olympia Police Department ( OPD ) has a good reputation thanks to reforms enacted in 2016 that allowed people to call “ crisis response units ” – trained social workers – instead of armed police officers to respond to people experiencing severe mental distress .
The mayor has even showed sympathy toward the demonstrators .
The Olympia City Council , of which she is a member , has banned the use of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instruments such as pepper spray , pepper balls and smoke grenades against violent mobs since June 9 .
Selby has even showed that she is open to discuss defunding her city ’ s police department .
She said that she was going to “ pull people around a table to discuss what defunding or reallocation for public safety means.
” The mayor , who still has three years left before her term ends , said “ I ’ m no quitter ” and that she will continue working to get her community to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Listen to this episode of the Health Ranger Report , a podcast by Mike Adams , the Health Ranger , as he talks about how Antifa and BLM left-wing terrorists are handing President Donald Trump his victory in the November 2020 election .
Selby ’ s home wasn ’ t the only place that the rioters vandalized and wrecked that night .
On the night of June 19 , two groups of rioters converged in downtown Olympia , where they became very destructive .
They burned American flags and wrecked and vandalized many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 wearing all black attire rallied at Sylvester Park .
Another group of 30 , wearing neon yellow shirts with the word “ peacekeeper ” on the front and back trailed closely behind them .
Some of the peacekeepers were holding paintball guns .
The black-clad rioters marched to Olympia ’ s City Hall .
There , they continued causing chaos .
They took trashcans and “ ROAD WORK AHEAD ” traffic signs , dragged them into the streets and flipped them over .
The peacekeepers then tried to clean up after them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of bystanders heckled both groups while they marched .
After the black-clad group left Selby ’ s home , they got into shouting matches with the peacekeepers throughout the night .
The first incident happened at Sylvester Park , when the two groups began yelling at each other .
Later that evening , a fight broke out when the black-clad protesters burned an American flag they stole from a motel .
One man who tried to stop the flag burning was beaten up by the rioters , who then walked away as some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individual .
According to the OPD Lieutenant Paul Lower , many businesses were either vandalized or damaged that night , including a coffee shop , a bank and a title company .
Lower says that the black-clad rioters even vandalized a church , the United Churches of Olympia .
Lower said that there were so many reports of vandalism on the night of June 19th that the OPD probably won ’ t be able to collate all incidents until Sunday , June 21 .
OPD kept a close eye on the rioters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they avoided getting too close to the groups of marchers .
Selby said that , since the beginning of the month , Olympia has been dealing with three crises : homelessness , the coronavirus pandemic and civil unrest .
If the rioting in her town continues , government resources will have no choice but to ignore the former two .

by: Arsenio Toledo
(Natural News) The home of Cheryl Selby, Democratic mayor of Olympia, Washington, was vandalized by Black Lives Matter rioters. Selby then described the incident as “domestic terrorism.”
On the night of June 19, a large group of black-clad rioters made their way into Olympia’s South Capitol neighborhood, where Mayor Selby resides. There, the rioters began chanting “abolish the police.” One individual – whom the mayor believes to be a woman – went up to Selby’s home and spray painted “BLM,” “RACIST” and “ABOLISH” onto the mayor’s front door and front-facing exteriors.
Selby and her family were not home that night, but some of her neighbors quickly alerted her to the presence of the rioters.
Mayor Selby still targeted despite being sympathetic to the BLM movement
“I’m really trying to process this,” said Selby to The Olympian over the phone. “It’s like domestic terrorism. It’s unfair.”
“It hurts when you’re giving so much to your community,” she added. The rioters eventually headed off, after one man with a metal paddle-like object told the group to leave, threatening them with violence if they didn’t respect Selby’s property.
This is not the first time Selby’s house was targeted by demonstrators. A group of protesters once gathered in her neighborhood two years ago during May Day to spread leaflets and direct chants at her. (Related: Seattle Police Chief: Cops can’t respond to “rapes, robberies and all sorts of violent acts” committed inside Autonomous Zone.)
Selby has been regarded as generally supportive of police reform. She has touted the fact that the Olympia Police Department (OPD) has a good reputation thanks to reforms enacted in 2016 that allowed people to call “crisis response units” – trained social workers – instead of armed police officers to respond to people experiencing severe mental distress.
The mayor has even showed sympathy toward the demonstrators. The Olympia City Council, of which she is a member, has banned the use of tear gas and other chemical crowd control instruments such as pepper spray, pepper balls and smoke grenades against violent mobs since June 9.
Selby has even showed that she is open to discuss defunding her city’s police department. She said that she was going to “pull people around a table to discuss what defunding or reallocation for public safety means.”
The mayor, who still has three years left before her term ends, said “I’m no quitter” and that she will continue working to get her community to move past this night of chaos.
Listen to this episode of the Health Ranger Report, a podcast by Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, as he talks about how Antifa and BLM left-wing terrorists are handing President Donald Trump his victory in the November 2020 election.
Olympia descended into chaos
Selby’s home wasn’t the only place that the rioters vandalized and wrecked that night.
On the night of June 19, two groups of rioters converged in downtown Olympia, where they became very destructive. They burned American flags and wrecked and vandalized many local businesses.
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One group of about 50 wearing all black attire rallied at Sylvester Park. Another group of 30, wearing neon yellow shirts with the word “peacekeeper” on the front and back trailed closely behind them. Some of the peacekeepers were holding paintball guns.
The black-clad rioters marched to Olympia’s City Hall. There, they continued causing chaos. They took trashcans and “ROAD WORK AHEAD” traffic signs, dragged them into the streets and flipped them over. The peacekeepers then tried to clean up after them as best they could. One group of bystanders heckled both groups while they marched.
After the black-clad group left Selby’s home, they got into shouting matches with the peacekeepers throughout the night. The first incident happened at Sylvester Park, when the two groups began yelling at each other.
Later that evening, a fight broke out when the black-clad protesters burned an American flag they stole from a motel. One man who tried to stop the flag burning was beaten up by the rioters, who then walked away as some of the peacekeepers tried to assist the individual.
According to the OPD Lieutenant Paul Lower, many businesses were either vandalized or damaged that night, including a coffee shop, a bank and a title company. Lower says that the black-clad rioters even vandalized a church, the United Churches of Olympia.
Lower said that there were so many reports of vandalism on the night of June 19th that the OPD probably won’t be able to collate all incidents until Sunday, June 21.
OPD kept a close eye on the rioters, following on bicycles and patrol vehicles, but they avoided getting too close to the groups of marchers.
Selby said that, since the beginning of the month, Olympia has been dealing with three crises: homelessness, the coronavirus pandemic and civil unrest. If the rioting in her town continues, government resources will have no choice but to ignore the former two.
Sources include:
TheEpochTimes.com
TheOlympian.com 1
KING5.com
TheOlympian.com 2
NYPost.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Joe Biden Promises Amnesty for Over 11 Million People in the Country Illegally

Here ’ s my promise to you : On day one , I ’ ll send a bill to Congress @ @ @ @ @ to citizenship for Dreamers and 11 million undocumented people who are already strengthening our nation @ @ @ @ @ overdue .

Here’s my promise to you: On day one, I’ll send a bill to Congress that creates a clear roadmap to citizenship for Dreamers and 11 million undocumented people who are already strengthening our nation. It’s long overdue.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) June 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--TULSA: Trump Supporters Boo CNN

TULSA: Trump Supporters Boo CNN

Trump supporters booing the CNN reporters on the scene at the rally line # TrumpRallyTulsa # Tulsa # TulsaRally # @ @

Trump supporters booing the CNN reporters on the scene at the rally line #TrumpRallyTulsa #Tulsa #TulsaRally #TrumpRally pic.twitter.com/aZ8919xA7x
— Brendan Gutenschwager (@bgutenschwager) June 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--CHAZ/CHOP: Several Bags Of Human Remains Found Near Autonomous Zone

Seattle police responded after getting a call about a suspicious bag on the beach near the water in the area @ @ @ @ @ Seattle .

Police: ‘Several bags’ of human remains found at West Seattle beach
Seattle police responded after getting a call about a suspicious bag on the beach near the water in the area of Luna Park in West Seattle.
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h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--FMR FBI COUNTERTERRORISM DIRECTOR: BLM & Democrat Party Are “Pushing For A Communist America”

Former FBI Counterterrorism Director Terry Turchie says the Black Lives Matter movement “ is all too familiar ” to the @ @ @ @ @ Panther Party groups of the 1960s and 1970s .
“ No one has read what @ @ @ @ @ as far as their plan , but it bears a great similarity to what the @ @ @ @ @ back then , ” Mr Turchie told Sky News .
“ The Black Panther Party @ @ @ @ @ organisation and that came from Huey Newton , one of the co-founders , who said @ @ @ @ @ nothing more than the total transformation of the United States government .
“ He went @ @ @ @ @ wanted to take the tension that already existed in black communities and exacerbate it where @ @ @ @ @ take those situations where there is a tinderbox and light the country on fire , @ @ @ @ @ “ Today we ’ re seeing the third revolution and they think they can make @ @ @ @ @ only thing that is different are the names of the groups .
”

Former FBI Counterterrorism Director Terry Turchie says the Black Lives Matter movement “is all too familiar” to the Weather Underground and the Black Panther Party groups of the 1960s and 1970s.
“No one has read what Black Lives Matter has written as far as their plan, but it bears a great similarity to what the Black Panther Party was saying back then,” Mr Turchie told Sky News.
“The Black Panther Party was a Marxist Maoist Leninist organisation and that came from Huey Newton, one of the co-founders, who said we’re standing for nothing more than the total transformation of the United States government.
“He went on to explain that they wanted to take the tension that already existed in black communities and exacerbate it where they can.
“To take those situations where there is a tinderbox and light the country on fire,” Mr Turchie said.
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“Today we’re seeing the third revolution and they think they can make this happen.
“The only thing that is different are the names of the groups.”
Image: AP
h/t DS


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Global Depression Worse Than 1930

Global Depression Worse Than 1930

A bounce is not a recovery.
Eurozone PMIs likely to remain in deep contraction in June.t.co/LEMzl31MLF pic.twitter.com/thlU9Hb9GG
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) June 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Disney fairytale comes to and end!

Disney fairytale comes to and end!

Disney world is supposed to reopen on July 11th with reservations and Disney land July 17th .
Obviously with Florida now hitting all time high spikes on Covid you are going to have many vacationer boomer grandparents cancelling vacations to the sunshine state of death and along with the Disney world reservations .
On top of that the odds of they pushing a delay on that are pretty good .
Expecting the fud on Disney to start end of June early July !
Next Disney bounce load up on July 17th $ 100 Disney puts The $ 100 Disney puts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday.. though the market took a doo doo and is bigly red after 4 pm when Robin Hood closes so the price probably will go up .
I would buy them on a Disney pump Green Day as we have time and the Covid vision is still hesitant for many..
I ’ m putting in orders good for forever for 5 at $ 80 and 5 at $ 90 and 5 at $ 100 Monday Think the price pumped on the vix jump with drop off Friday .
If they execute sometime in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oh well not going to chase them .
Don ’ t bet against the mouse except when it makes sense Disney puts $ 100 7/17 Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Sampson2003
Disney world is supposed to reopen on July 11th with reservations and Disney land July 17th. Obviously with Florida now hitting all time high spikes on Covid you are going to have many vacationer boomer grandparents cancelling vacations to the sunshine state of death and along with the Disney world reservations. On top of that the odds of they pushing a delay on that are pretty good. Expecting the fud on Disney to start end of June early July! Next Disney bounce load up on July 17th $100 Disney puts
The $100 Disney puts are July/17 for $113 as of Friday.. though the market took a doo doo and is bigly red after 4 pm when Robin Hood closes so the price probably will go up. I would buy them on a Disney pump Green Day as we have time and the Covid vision is still hesitant for many.. I’m putting in orders good for forever for 5 at $80 and 5 at $90 and 5 at $100 Monday Think the price pumped on the vix jump with drop off Friday. If they execute sometime in the next week sweet, if not oh well not going to chase them.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Don’t bet against the mouse except when it makes sense Disney puts $100 7/17
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--Bank Shorts: Week Ending June 26

Bank Shorts: Week Ending June 26

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE Last week marked an interesting turning point for the financial sector .
Downside in $ SPX led to some selling off across the board , and a couple of banks broke technical levels coming into this week , when Stress Test data will finally be released and commented on in full .
On Feb 6th , the Fed released its hypothetical scenarios for the stress test it would conduct .
It contained two scenarios ( adjusted to three after the Covid lockdown ) , the Severely Adverse scenario will be our focus today .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : baseline and severely adverse .
The severely adverse scenario this year features a severe global recession in which the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 6.5 percentage points to 10 percent , and elevated stress in corporate debt markets and commercial real estate.
” If you haven ’ t realized yet…this is basically right now .
Unemployment rate at ~14 % ( with real unemployment significantly higher ) , and extremely elevated stress in corporate debt markets and commercial real estate .
The table in the above press release shows hypothetical results of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The potential failures ( subject to global market shock/subject to counterparty default ) were BAC , BCS , C , CS , DB , GS , HSBC , JPM , MS , UBS , WFC .
The actual results of the stress test will be released on Thursday , but the banks aren ’ t allowed to comment until AH Monday , June 29 Importantly , we note that the stress-test scenarios were modified to include Coronavirus related shocks , and for the first time ever , banks will be given a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pre-pandemic stress test results .
What would the capital buffer requirement do exactly ?
The Fed has posited that it will simplify its capital framework by integrating ongoing , non-stress capital requirements and the stress test-based capital requirements under the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review ( CCAR ) .
The final rule also modified CCAR by no longer assuming that a firm makes nine quarters of planned capital actions , including dividends and repurchases , under stress .
This is important , as banks have suspended their common share buybacks and are in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In layman ’ s terms , the stress capital buffer requirement would have used the results of the supervisory stress test to determine large firms ’ ongoing regulatory capital requirements ; can they , with more certainty , survive a downturn based on their balance sheets and probable adjustments to their capital actions ?
Returning to the February hypotheticals – many of these banks are projected to fail their stress tests , and sentiment going into the posting of results seems poor .
We ’ ve seen a selloff in banking for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key technical levels along the way .
It ’ s a bit strange that the Fed would not allow these banks to discuss their stress test results until AH…bearish ?
Now , as we ’ ve seen before , the Fed has a tendency to paint a rosier picture than what the actual scenario is , and adjust that afterwards .
It ’ s likely that this will be the case Thursday night , and outlooks will be adjusted bullishly because of buyback and dividend suspensions , as well as hope on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I still remain bearish .
I should stipulate that this sentiment could reverse very quickly , especially if people start assuming banks look good again .
PLEASE KEEP TIGHT STOP LOSSES IF YOU MAKE THESE PLAYS !
My personal bearish observations ( charting ) coming into this week are below .
4SMA is Blue , 9SMA is Yellow , 18SMA is Red .
• GS down to $ 196.06 ( gap fill ) or $ 186.26 – 7/2 195P @ 4.98 • HSBC down to $ 22.13 – 7/2 22P @ 0.16 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • V down to $ 188.43 or $ 183.56 – 7/2 185P @ 1.84 • WFC down to $ 26.90 or $ 24.03 – 7/2 26P @ 0.69 • C upside to $ 54.50 but still in my no-trade-zone ; bounce off Bollinger median and 9SMA bounce off 18SMA to 6/10 low • MS upside to $ 49.50 ; bounce off Bollinger median to 6/5 low My own charts are hyperlinked above .
I use Bollinger Bands , MACD , CCI , and triple SMA ( 4,9,18 ) /double EMA ( 12,26 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The rest are all in my personal no-trade-zone , so I won ’ t be trading them this coming week until we see more news/explanations about the results of the stress test .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by chibuezephoibos
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Last week marked an interesting turning point for the financial sector. Downside in $SPX led to some selling off across the board, and a couple of banks broke technical levels coming into this week, when Stress Test data will finally be released and commented on in full.
On Feb 6th, the Fed released its hypothetical scenarios for the stress test it would conduct. It contained two scenarios (adjusted to three after the Covid lockdown), the Severely Adverse scenario will be our focus today.
Outlined below:
“The stress tests include two hypothetical scenarios: baseline and severely adverse. The severely adverse scenario this year features a severe global recession in which the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 6.5 percentage points to 10 percent, and elevated stress in corporate debt markets and commercial real estate.”
If you haven’t realized yet…this is basically right now. Unemployment rate at ~14% (with real unemployment significantly higher), and extremely elevated stress in corporate debt markets and commercial real estate.
The table in the above press release shows hypothetical results of the stress test among the largest players. The potential failures (subject to global market shock/subject to counterparty default) were BAC, BCS, C, CS, DB, GS, HSBC, JPM, MS, UBS, WFC.
The actual results of the stress test will be released on Thursday, but the banks aren’t allowed to comment until AH Monday, June 29
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Importantly, we note that the stress-test scenarios were modified to include Coronavirus related shocks, and for the first time ever, banks will be given a stress capital buffer requirement based on the pre-pandemic stress test results.
What would the capital buffer requirement do exactly? The Fed has posited that it will simplify its capital framework by integrating ongoing, non-stress capital requirements and the stress test-based capital requirements under the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).
The final rule also modified CCAR by no longer assuming that a firm makes nine quarters of planned capital actions, including dividends and repurchases, under stress. This is important, as banks have suspended their common share buybacks and are in talks to suspend their dividend payments. In layman’s terms, the stress capital buffer requirement would have used the results of the supervisory stress test to determine large firms’ ongoing regulatory capital requirements; can they, with more certainty, survive a downturn based on their balance sheets and probable adjustments to their capital actions?
Returning to the February hypotheticals – many of these banks are projected to fail their stress tests, and sentiment going into the posting of results seems poor. We’ve seen a selloff in banking for the last week, and the breaking of key technical levels along the way. It’s a bit strange that the Fed would not allow these banks to discuss their stress test results until AH…bearish?
Now, as we’ve seen before, the Fed has a tendency to paint a rosier picture than what the actual scenario is, and adjust that afterwards. It’s likely that this will be the case Thursday night, and outlooks will be adjusted bullishly because of buyback and dividend suspensions, as well as hope on the economy reopening. However, until then, I still remain bearish. I should stipulate that this sentiment could reverse very quickly, especially if people start assuming banks look good again. PLEASE KEEP TIGHT STOP LOSSES IF YOU MAKE THESE PLAYS!
My personal bearish observations (charting) coming into this week are below. 4SMA is Blue, 9SMA is Yellow, 18SMA is Red.
BAC down to $22.50 – 7/2 23.50P @0.54
GS down to $196.06 (gap fill) or $186.26 – 7/2 195P @4.98
HSBC down to $22.13 – 7/2 22P @0.16 (this is free fucking money)
JPM down to $91.33 – 7/2 91.50P @1.80
V down to $188.43 or $183.56 – 7/2 185P @1.84
WFC down to $26.90 or $24.03 – 7/2 26P @0.69
C upside to $54.50 but still in my no-trade-zone; bounce off Bollinger median and 9SMA bounce off 18SMA to 6/10 low
MS upside to $49.50; bounce off Bollinger median to 6/5 low
My own charts are hyperlinked above. I use Bollinger Bands, MACD, CCI, and triple SMA (4,9,18)/double EMA (12,26). Please do your own DD though. The rest are all in my personal no-trade-zone, so I won’t be trading them this coming week until we see more news/explanations about the results of the stress test.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--DD: Covid cases are spiking…but buy these instead of SPY puts!

Longtime reader , first DD post for me .
Like the rest of you , I see the writing on the wall with the spiking cases in Florida , Arizona , California , Texas ( I am in Houston ) , etc .
and want to profit from the next market move .
I believe many of these states will be slow to respond with effective quarantine measures , and anecdotally I have seen very limited compliance with social distancing and mask guidelines .
Due to the long incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 , the case count spike we are seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , and opportunities for spread have only increased since then .
Additionally , a large percentage of the population is unable to interpret widely available public data and believes the increased case count is a fabrication because “ we are testing more ” .
However , a linear regression of the data for Texas shows the percent of tests that come back positive has increased from an average of ~4 % 30 days ago to ~12 % now , while the average number of tests have only increased by 10-20 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we are seeing community spread at an exponential rate .
Many will not come to this realization and alter their behavior until one of their loved ones becomes very sick .
This will allow several more weeks of community spread to go on before R0 is brought back below 1 .
If the death count gets high enough , fear will take over and many will shelter in place again , either voluntarily or by mandate .
The V-shaped recovery thesis becomes much harder to defend at this point , to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still reading , you are probably thinking “ I know all of this , how do I make those sweet , sweet tendies ?
” .
Most of you are banking on SPY puts , but I think you might have better odds at a roulette table .
The Fed has killed price discovery , and can severely restrict the risk/reward ratio of bearish positions with literally an infinite arsenal .
The retail investors know this and will buy any dips , and any new shelter-in-place orders gives Jerome a fantastic excuse to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Don ’ t fight the Fed , and don ’ t bet against a retail-mania driven bubble .
However , the Fed is not interested in propping up the price of oil ( gasp ! )
.
Chart with colors and lines and shit so you know I is tarded West Texas Crude dropped from a pre-COVID high of $ 65/bbl to futures at negative $ 37/bbl as a result of the demand destruction from worldwide quarantines .
During this same period , an ETF that inversely tracks crude at a 2x clip @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an intra-day peak of $ 67 .
SCO spiked twice more in the following days as crude underwent wild price swings .
Fast-forward to today .
Crude just formed a double-top chart pattern $ 40.50 , exactly at the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement level from it ’ s January 2020 peak to it ’ s April 20th low .
This all-time low occurred an entire month after SPY bottomed on March 23rd , and this is because crude prices are actually driven by…wait for it…supply and demand .
In other words , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while the stock market is ( currently ) not .
In fact , government bailouts of the struggling US shale oil companies would only allow them to continue to flood the market , further driving down the price of oil .
The US Energy Information Administration has forecasted 2H 2020 crude prices to average $ 37/bbl based on a V-shaped recovery ( www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php ) .
We are currently at $ 40/ bbl based on OPEC+ compliance and recovery optimism , and we aren ’ t even into Q3 .
There are too many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crude demand in a W-shaped scenario as subsequent infection spikes slow the world ’ s energy demands down again , but a gain in crude stocks will immediately send prices falling .
I would expect crude to look for support near the 50 % retracement level around $ 32/bbl , which would push SCO approximately 40 % higher than current due to the daily compounded 2x leverage .
Another wave of government mandated lockdowns would likely see crude fall to $ 25 or below , which would put SCO at around $ 44 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -at $ 60 or more .
Nothing boosts oil prices like a foreign conflict , and tensions have certainly been on the rise this year .
An airstrike on a tanker would be a bad headline for this position .
If I am missing any other risks , please let me know .
COV-SARS-2 is once again pressuring global energy demand .
The Fed can screw your SPY puts , but might actually hurt oil prices .
Go long on SCO or go with UCO puts .
Choose expiration and strike price per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will decouple the risk associated with trying to time the market .
But I know how safe you guys like to play it , so load up on those puts !
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by HypnoticStrix
Longtime reader, first DD post for me. Like the rest of you, I see the writing on the wall with the spiking cases in Florida, Arizona, California, Texas (I am in Houston), etc. and want to profit from the next market move. I believe many of these states will be slow to respond with effective quarantine measures, and anecdotally I have seen very limited compliance with social distancing and mask guidelines. Due to the long incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, the case count spike we are seeing is most likely from exposure 2-3 weeks ago, and opportunities for spread have only increased since then. Additionally, a large percentage of the population is unable to interpret widely available public data and believes the increased case count is a fabrication because “we are testing more”. However, a linear regression of the data for Texas shows the percent of tests that come back positive has increased from an average of ~4% 30 days ago to ~12% now, while the average number of tests have only increased by 10-20%. It is very clear from the data that we are seeing community spread at an exponential rate. Many will not come to this realization and alter their behavior until one of their loved ones becomes very sick. This will allow several more weeks of community spread to go on before R0 is brought back below 1. If the death count gets high enough, fear will take over and many will shelter in place again, either voluntarily or by mandate. The V-shaped recovery thesis becomes much harder to defend at this point, to say the least.
For those of you still reading, you are probably thinking “I know all of this, how do I make those sweet, sweet tendies?”. Most of you are banking on SPY puts, but I think you might have better odds at a roulette table. The Fed has killed price discovery, and can severely restrict the risk/reward ratio of bearish positions with literally an infinite arsenal. The retail investors know this and will buy any dips, and any new shelter-in-place orders gives Jerome a fantastic excuse to fire up the digital printer again. Don’t fight the Fed, and don’t bet against a retail-mania driven bubble. However, the Fed is not interested in propping up the price of oil (gasp!).

Chart with colors and lines and shit so you know I is tarded
West Texas Crude dropped from a pre-COVID high of $65/bbl to futures at negative $37/bbl as a result of the demand destruction from worldwide quarantines. During this same period, an ETF that inversely tracks crude at a 2x clip, SCO, went from $12 to an intra-day peak of $67. SCO spiked twice more in the following days as crude underwent wild price swings. Fast-forward to today. Crude just formed a double-top chart pattern $40.50, exactly at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level from it’s January 2020 peak to it’s April 20th low. This all-time low occurred an entire month after SPY bottomed on March 23rd, and this is because crude prices are actually driven by…wait for it…supply and demand. In other words, crude is still driven by fundamentals, while the stock market is (currently) not. In fact, government bailouts of the struggling US shale oil companies would only allow them to continue to flood the market, further driving down the price of oil.
The US Energy Information Administration has forecasted 2H 2020 crude prices to average $37/bbl based on a V-shaped recovery (www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php). We are currently at $40/ bbl based on OPEC+ compliance and recovery optimism, and we aren’t even into Q3. There are too many variables for me to accurately predict actual crude demand in a W-shaped scenario as subsequent infection spikes slow the world’s energy demands down again, but a gain in crude stocks will immediately send prices falling. I would expect crude to look for support near the 50% retracement level around $32/bbl, which would push SCO approximately 40% higher than current due to the daily compounded 2x leverage. Another wave of government mandated lockdowns would likely see crude fall to $25 or below, which would put SCO at around $44. Another Oil-geddon scenario would put SCO -at $60 or more.

We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
EIA 2021 Forecast
Risks
Nothing boosts oil prices like a foreign conflict, and tensions have certainly been on the rise this year. An airstrike on a tanker would be a bad headline for this position. If I am missing any other risks, please let me know.
TL;DR
COV-SARS-2 is once again pressuring global energy demand. The Fed can screw your SPY puts, but might actually hurt oil prices. Go long on SCO or go with UCO puts. Choose expiration and strike price per your risk tolerance.
Buying SCO directly will decouple the risk associated with trying to time the market. But I know how safe you guys like to play it, so load up on those puts!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-20--The U.S. economic recovery rests on getting consumers to spend….but the US spending declined by a re

The U.S. economic recovery rests on getting consumers to spend….but the US spending declined by a record 13.6 % and @ @ @ @ @ Cut Their Spending .
That Has Hurt All the Workers Who Count on It.t.co/8pcQBfwUsK @ @ @ @ @ @ # Philadelphia t.co/Ajcy2z6GTM pic.twitter.com/DVNG4S0dDI

The U.S. economic recovery rests on getting consumers to spend….but the US spending declined by a record 13.6% and record savings)
The Rich Cut Their Spending. That Has Hurt All the Workers Who Count on It.t.co/8pcQBfwUsK @nytimesbusiness @cnbc #economy #Philadelphia t.co/Ajcy2z6GTM pic.twitter.com/DVNG4S0dDI
— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) June 20, 2020