investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--The K-Shaped Recovery. A “V” For Some, Not For Most.

Economists have come up with every variation of applying a letter of the alphabet to the economic recovery .
Whether it ’ s an “ L , ” a “ W ” or a “ V , ” there is a letter that suits your view .
But what is a “ K ” -shaped recovery ?
Take a closer look at the letter “ K. ” It ’ s a “ V ” on the top , and an inverted “ V ” on the bottom .
Following the economic shutdown , much of the data shows strong signs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic phenomena are driving a K-shaped recovery .
One of the more interesting aspects of the recovery has been that of “ creative destruction : ” Industries like technology , retail , and software services are leading the way in “ creative destruction.
” Technology companies like Apple Inc. , Alphabet Inc. , and Microsoft Corp. saw earnings expand during the economic recession .
General merchandise retailers such as Target , Walmart , and Costco , along with online video entertainment giants Netflix Inc. , Walt Disney Co. , and YouTube , made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biotech , Pharmaceuticals , and , of course , “ Work From Home ” firms like Slack and Zoom blossomed with online retailers like Amazon and Shopify .
However , while the “ fire of necessity ” gave birth to a host of new companies , simultaneously others got lost .
Travel , airlines , cruises , movie theaters , traditional retailers , and real estate remain under significant financial pressures .
In the bottom half of the “ K ” shaped recovery lies the majority of the economy .
Its recovery is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The shift to “ Work From Home ” or “ WFH , ” along with the rise of the associated technologies , has companies questioning the need for expansive commercial offices .
WFH also requires less employment .
In traditional office environments , assistants , associates , and others were previously relied on for more mundane tasks .
However , in the WFH environment , those roles become less important as independent working rises .
The need for “ less ” during the employment recovery is very much part of the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those with skill sets are finding jobs versus those without .
Importantly , employers are also finding out they can hire higher qualified talent for less money .
For example , I spoke to a restaurant owner who has been hiring as the economy reopened in Texas .
His experience has been an overwhelming number of applications for waitstaff , bartenders , and hosts by individuals with bachelor degrees or better .
It isn ’ t there aren ’ t jobs for those with a high-school diploma or less , individuals are just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The process of “ creative destruction ” is in action , and there are plenty of statistics currently suggesting such is the case .
• All 546 Regal Cinema theaters in the United States are shutting down , and there is no timetable for reopening them .
• AMC Entertainment ( the largest movie theater chain in the U.S. ) reported they would “ run out of liquidity ” in 6 months .
• The average rent on a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco is 20.3 percent lower than it was one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter , the number of vehicles delivered by General Motors was down about 10 percent from a year ago .
• Anheuser-Busch will be laying off 400 employees in Loveland , Denver , Littleton , and Colorado Springs .
• Allstate has just announced that they will be laying off 3,800 workers .
• JCPenney says that it will be cutting approximately 15,000 jobs as we approach the holiday shopping season .
• On Thursday , we learned that another 787,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits during the previous week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits so far in 2020 .
That number is far higher than anything we have ever seen before in all of U.S. history .
• Retail store closings in the United States continue to surge along at an unprecedented pace .
• Bankruptcy filings in New York City have risen 40 percent so far in 2020 .
• This number is hard to believe , but almost 90 percent of New York City bar and restaurant owners couldn ’ t pay their full rent for August @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the stock market as an indicator of economic recovery , it certainly seems these are isolated cases .
Unfortunately , such isn ’ t the case .
As noted by the WSJ previously : Indeed , one of the simplest ways to envision the current “ K ” shaped recovery is by looking at the surge of the stock market since late March .
However , as we have noted previously , the “ stock market ” is no longer representative of the underlying economy .
Such is due to massive interventions by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in “ risk ” assets to historic levels Even though the revenues generated by corporations come from economic activity , the Fed has fostered a “ debt-driven ” explosion of speculative investment activity .
Despite the economy plunging in Q2 by most since the “ Great Depression , ” unemployment surging , and nearly 50 % of small businesses nationwide failing , the stock market soared to new highs .
Such is a clear example of how Central Bankers distorted the economic relationship .
It also exacerbated financial inequality when the top 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the stocks and mutual funds .
As I showed last week , the differential in ownership in financial assets between the top 10 % of the economy , which owns fully 88 % of the stock market , and everyone else isn ’ t even close .
While the “ rich get richer , ” the poor continue to suffer .
Unfortunately , the fiscal stimulus will only worsen the divide .
In the current recovery , it is clear that those at the top of the “ K ” are indeed experiencing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For the rest , not so much .
Unfortunately , policy-makers , along with the Federal Reserve , are stuck .
Since politicians want to get re-elected , sending money to households is a way to “ buy the vote.
” The average American doesn ’ t understand their demands on the Government for more support is leading to their economic inequality .
Conversely , the Federal Reserve serves at the mercy of the major Wall Street banks , so their policy focuses on inflating assets prices for the 10 % , hoping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bottom 90 % .
After a decade , it hasn ’ t happened .
What we are confident of is that these “ new policies ” are very much the same as the “ old policies.
” As such , they will continue to foster economic inequality , inflated assets , and a further widening of the “ wealth gap.
” These policies will ultimately result in further social instability and populism .
History is replete with examples of the “ endgame ” of socialistic experiments of running unbridled debts and deficits .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and allow recessions to reset economic imbalances .
Yes , it will be painful in the short-term , but the long-term benefits of expanded economic prosperity might be worth it .
One thing is for sure , “ repeating the same failed actions and expecting a different outcome ” has never been a solution for success .
We are reasonably confident it won ’ t work this time either .

by Lance Roberts
Economists have come up with every variation of applying a letter of the alphabet to the economic recovery. Whether it’s an “L,” a “W” or a “V,” there is a letter that suits your view. But what is a “K”-shaped recovery?
Take a closer look at the letter “K.” It’s a “V” on the top, and an inverted “V” on the bottom.
According to Investopedia:
“A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes. This is in contrast to an even, uniform recovery across sectors, industries, or groups of people. A K-shaped recovery leads to changes in the structure of the economy or the broader society as economic outcomes and relations are fundamentally changed before and after the recession.
Creative Destruction
Following the economic shutdown, much of the data shows strong signs of improvement. However, several different economic phenomena are driving a K-shaped recovery.
One of the more interesting aspects of the recovery has been that of “creative destruction:”
“Creative destruction is a concept in economics which since the 1950s has become most readily identified with economist Joseph Schumpeter. Schumpeter derived it from the work of Karl Marx and popularized it as a theory of economic innovation and the business cycle. According to Schumpeter, the ‘gale of creative destruction’ describes the ‘process of industrial mutation. The process continuously revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one’” – Wikipedia
Industries like technology, retail, and software services are leading the way in “creative destruction.” Technology companies like Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., and Microsoft Corp. saw earnings expand during the economic recession. General merchandise retailers such as Target, Walmart, and Costco, along with online video entertainment giants Netflix Inc., Walt Disney Co., and YouTube, made sizeable gains as the economy closed. Biotech, Pharmaceuticals, and, of course, “Work From Home” firms like Slack and Zoom blossomed with online retailers like Amazon and Shopify.
However, while the “fire of necessity” gave birth to a host of new companies, simultaneously others got lost. Travel, airlines, cruises, movie theaters, traditional retailers, and real estate remain under significant financial pressures.
The Other Side
In the bottom half of the “K” shaped recovery lies the majority of the economy. Its recovery is questionable the longer the pandemic goes on. The shift to “Work From Home” or “WFH,” along with the rise of the associated technologies, has companies questioning the need for expansive commercial offices.
WFH also requires less employment. In traditional office environments, assistants, associates, and others were previously relied on for more mundane tasks. However, in the WFH environment, those roles become less important as independent working rises.
The need for “less” during the employment recovery is very much part of the “K” shape. Yes, certainly those with skill sets are finding jobs versus those without. Importantly, employers are also finding out they can hire higher qualified talent for less money. For example, I spoke to a restaurant owner who has been hiring as the economy reopened in Texas. His experience has been an overwhelming number of applications for waitstaff, bartenders, and hosts by individuals with bachelor degrees or better.
It isn’t there aren’t jobs for those with a high-school diploma or less, individuals are just taking those jobs with greater education levels.
The process of “creative destruction” is in action, and there are plenty of statistics currently suggesting such is the case.
Not A Broad Recovery
Just recently, Michael Snyder released a list of startling economic facts.
However, if you look at the stock market as an indicator of economic recovery, it certainly seems these are isolated cases.
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Unfortunately, such isn’t the case.
A “V” For The Top 10%
As noted by the WSJ previously:
“As of December 2019—before the shutdowns—households in the bottom 20% of incomes had seen their financial assets, such as money in the bank, stock and bond investments or retirement funds, fall by 34% since the end of the 2007-09 recession, according to Fed data adjusted for inflation. Those in the middle of the income distribution have seen just 4% growth.” – WSJ
Indeed, one of the simplest ways to envision the current “K” shaped recovery is by looking at the surge of the stock market since late March. However, as we have noted previously, the “stock market” is no longer representative of the underlying economy. Such is due to massive interventions by the Federal Reserve, which pushed speculation in “risk” assets to historic levels
Even though the revenues generated by corporations come from economic activity, the Fed has fostered a “debt-driven” explosion of speculative investment activity. Despite the economy plunging in Q2 by most since the “Great Depression,” unemployment surging, and nearly 50% of small businesses nationwide failing, the stock market soared to new highs. Such is a clear example of how Central Bankers distorted the economic relationship.
It also exacerbated financial inequality when the top 1% of earners owns 52% of the stocks and mutual funds.
As I showed last week, the differential in ownership in financial assets between the top 10% of the economy, which owns fully 88% of the stock market, and everyone else isn’t even close.
While the “rich get richer,” the poor continue to suffer. Unfortunately, the fiscal stimulus will only worsen the divide.
Expecting A Different Outcome
In the current recovery, it is clear that those at the top of the “K” are indeed experiencing a “V”-shaped recovery. For the rest, not so much.
Unfortunately, policy-makers, along with the Federal Reserve, are stuck. Since politicians want to get re-elected, sending money to households is a way to “buy the vote.” The average American doesn’t understand their demands on the Government for more support is leading to their economic inequality.
Conversely, the Federal Reserve serves at the mercy of the major Wall Street banks, so their policy focuses on inflating assets prices for the 10%, hoping it might one-day trickle down to the bottom 90%. After a decade, it hasn’t happened.
What we are confident of is that these “new policies” are very much the same as the “old policies.” As such, they will continue to foster economic inequality, inflated assets, and a further widening of the “wealth gap.”
These policies will ultimately result in further social instability and populism. History is replete with examples of the “endgame” of socialistic experiments of running unbridled debts and deficits.
Maybe we should try something different, and allow recessions to reset economic imbalances. Yes, it will be painful in the short-term, but the long-term benefits of expanded economic prosperity might be worth it.
One thing is for sure, “repeating the same failed actions and expecting a different outcome” has never been a solution for success.
We are reasonably confident it won’t work this time either.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Aldi Grocery Store in England Fines Slow Shoppers for Shopping Too Long

A Woman has been fined £40 for shopping too long with her elderly mother who walks with a stick and @ @ @ @ @ clobbered with a £40 fine for overstaying the parking the time limit of one hour @ @ @ @ @ have been contacted for a comment .

A Woman has been fined £40 for shopping too long with her elderly mother who walks with a stick and is slow.
She was clobbered with a £40 fine for overstaying the parking the time limit of one hour and 30 minutes.
Aldi have been contacted for a comment.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.heraldseries.co.uk/news/18787207.aldi-fines-shoppers-spending-long-inside-supermarket/
www.heraldseries.co.uk/news/18787207.aldi-fines-shoppers-spending-long-inside-supermarket/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Leftist governor throws rules out the window — won’t say when votes will be counted!

Promising fraud ?
( Need time to get rid of Trump ballots ?
?
? )
We will count them over and over until we have the numbers we need !
Leftist governor throws rules out the window — won ’ t say when votes will be counted !
Whitmer says Michigan votes will not be announced by ‘ artificial deadlines ’ set by ‘ people with political agendas ’ thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/520528-whitmer-says-michigan-votes-will-not-be-announced-by-an-artificial “ Michigan will be able to announce results , but we are not going to have artificial deadlines set by , you know , people with political agendas , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re gon na get this right.
” “ It will be soon after polls close , ” she added .
“ I ’ m not gon na put a number on it , but we ’ re gon na get it right.
” Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson ( D ) has said the battleground state that President Trump won in 2016 will not be able to report the election results on Nov. 3 .
Election results are expected to be delayed this year as a record number of people complete mail-in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid the coronavirus pandemic .

Promising fraud?
(Need time to get rid of Trump ballots???)
We will count them over and over until we have the numbers we need!
Leftist governor throws rules out the window — won’t say when votes will be counted!
Whitmer says Michigan votes will not be announced by ‘artificial deadlines’ set by ‘people with political agendas’
thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/520528-whitmer-says-michigan-votes-will-not-be-announced-by-an-artificial
“Michigan will be able to announce results, but we are not going to have artificial deadlines set by, you know, people with political agendas,” she said. “We’re gonna get this right.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“It will be soon after polls close,” she added. “I’m not gonna put a number on it, but we’re gonna get it right.”
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) has said the battleground state that President Trump won in 2016 will not be able to report the election results on Nov. 3.
Election results are expected to be delayed this year as a record number of people complete mail-in ballots to avoid going to polling places amid the coronavirus pandemic.
h/t McDonald Trump


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Prepare Yourself! China Won’t Hesitate To Make Its Move While The Indian Economy Is In Turmoil

by Financial Argument via Financial Argument It is clear that China will take advantage of India ’ s collapsing economy and these weaknesses , and they will not hesitate in doing so .
China will then move on to implementing the next step of its master plan .
If you think the collapsing Indian economy is none of our business in the U.S. , or if you simply think this will mean a larger supply of call center employees , then you are totally wrong .
As I presented evidence of in the last video about China , China has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Their first move will undoubtedly be against the collapsing Indian economy .
China won ’ t hesitate .
Because , as I will explain in detail in the next few minutes , India was chosen as the power to oppose China , along with a few other countries , particularly in the Asia-Pacific region .
Building a plan on a country like India that will never be able to compete with China was a completely wrong economic and political strategy , and the fact that the Indian authorities gladly accept the role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of India ’ s economic future .
Although many Indians are convinced that it will be the world ’ s newest powerhouse , I beg them to please wake up from their dreams .
If I have Indian viewers watching this video , please don ’ t get me wrong .
I absolutely do not underestimate India .
India is one of the world ’ s largest economies and , along with China , one of the world ’ s most populous countries .
But , here , we are talking about a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will be knocked out in the first round due to its economic turmoil .
We have no choice but to prepare for the ugly things that will happen until November and the great chaos that is certain to follow .
00:00 | “ There ’ s none so blind as they that won ’ t see.
” 00:42 | “ QUAD ” ( QSD ) Against China ( The U.S. – Japan – India – Australia ) 01:22 | China has started the final stages of its plan 01:42 | Great betrayal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ | The part of this ridiculous plan of India vs China 03:25 | China economy has bounced back stronger than before 03:45 | “ India ’ s recent economic situation is the worst in the world ” 04:01 | India ’ s GDP falling to -23.9 % 04:16 | There was a 47 % decrease in hotels , communication , and transportation activities – Indian manufacturing shrank 39.3 % .
04:57 | Harley Davidson to exit Indian Market 05:28 | The trillion-rupee hole in Indian banks 05:52 | The Indian healthcare system is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Trump ’ s visit to India in February 07:14 | India won ’ t become a superpower 08:12 | Pompeo ’ s statements targeted not only alliance countries , but also other Asia-Pacific countries 09:13 | China responds very harshly , without hesitation 10:08 | They think India will replace China 10:45 | China could completely embroil India in internal turmoil if it wished 11:16 | Ertugrul vs Fauda ( much more than a cultural difference ) 11:42 | China itself was not invaded and occupied 12:07 | India has always been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ | We have no choice but to prepare before November

by Financial Argument via Financial Argument
It is clear that China will take advantage of India’s collapsing economy and these weaknesses, and they will not hesitate in doing so. China will then move on to implementing the next step of its master plan.
If you think the collapsing Indian economy is none of our business in the U.S., or if you simply think this will mean a larger supply of call center employees, then you are totally wrong.
As I presented evidence of in the last video about China, China has started the final stages of its plan. Their first move will undoubtedly be against the collapsing Indian economy. China won’t hesitate. Because, as I will explain in detail in the next few minutes, India was chosen as the power to oppose China, along with a few other countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
Building a plan on a country like India that will never be able to compete with China was a completely wrong economic and political strategy, and the fact that the Indian authorities gladly accept the role of a stooge is a great betrayal of India’s economic future.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Although many Indians are convinced that it will be the world’s newest powerhouse, I beg them to please wake up from their dreams. If I have Indian viewers watching this video, please don’t get me wrong. I absolutely do not underestimate India. India is one of the world’s largest economies and, along with China, one of the world’s most populous countries. But, here, we are talking about a giant that India cannot handle; it will be knocked out in the first round due to its economic turmoil.
We have no choice but to prepare for the ugly things that will happen until November and the great chaos that is certain to follow.
00:00 | “There’s none so blind as they that won’t see.”
00:42 | “QUAD” (QSD) Against China (The U.S. – Japan – India – Australia)
01:22 | China has started the final stages of its plan
01:42 | Great betrayal of India’s economic future
02:24 | The part of this ridiculous plan of India vs China
03:25 | China economy has bounced back stronger than before
03:45 | “India’s recent economic situation is the worst in the world”
04:01 | India’s GDP falling to -23.9%
04:16 | There was a 47% decrease in hotels, communication, and transportation activities – Indian manufacturing shrank 39.3%.
04:57 | Harley Davidson to exit Indian Market
05:28 | The trillion-rupee hole in Indian banks
05:52 | The Indian healthcare system is on the verge of collapse
06:48 | President Trump’s visit to India in February
07:14 | India won’t become a superpower
08:12 | Pompeo’s statements targeted not only alliance countries, but also other Asia-Pacific countries
09:13 | China responds very harshly, without hesitation
10:08 | They think India will replace China
10:45 | China could completely embroil India in internal turmoil if it wished
11:16 | Ertugrul vs Fauda (much more than a cultural difference)
11:42 | China itself was not invaded and occupied
12:07 | India has always been under the rule of another nation
12:25 | We have no choice but to prepare before November
Donate to Financial Argument: www.patreon.com/financialargu…


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Denver Shooting: “Officials have no record that Mathew Dolloff had the required city license to work

Denver Shooting: “Officials have no record that Mathew Dolloff had the required city license to work as a private security guard.

Officials have no record that Mathew Dolloff had the required city license to work as a private security guard .
@ @ @ @ @ have an active license and have never had an active license for anybody with that @ @ @

Officials have no record that Mathew Dolloff had the required city license to work as a private security guard. “We do not currently have an active license and have never had an active license for anybody with that name.” t.co/OujptRB6CM
— James Hirsen (@thejimjams) October 11, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Joe Biden campaign advisor so dumb CNN can’t defend what she is saying

So , it ’ s come to the stage where the CNN lackeys are so embarrassed by the Biden lackeys @ @ @ @ @ behave “ reasonably ” in order to not appear to be even greater lackeys than @ @ @ @ @ comeback , no way of pushing the Communist agenda forward because even they can not @ @ @ @ @ of Biden ’ s campaign spokeslackey ?
Who would have believed it ?

I’m reeling with astonishment!
So, it’s come to the stage where the CNN lackeys are so embarrassed by the Biden lackeys that they are forced to behave “reasonably” in order to not appear to be even greater lackeys than normal?
They have no comeback, no way of pushing the Communist agenda forward because even they cannot legitimise the word-salad coming out of Biden’s campaign spokeslackey?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Who would have believed it?
h/t JADR


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--so… 2 million tests per day? That explains your GDP

so… 2 million tests per day ?
That explains your GDP t.co/s1Kib0aomX

so… 2 million tests per day? That explains your GDP t.co/s1Kib0aomX
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Monetary & fiscal disorder in one chart. Currency debasement written all over it.

The European Central Bank sees no sign of market distortion due to its polic…Ooooops pic.twitter.com/z16J53JClp Default risk… .
I know @ @ @ @ @ that is impossible , but history tells us they are wrong .

The European Central Bank sees no sign of market distortion due to its polic…Ooooops pic.twitter.com/z16J53JClp
Default risk…. I know the CBs have told us that is impossible, but history tells us they are wrong.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) October 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--A telltale sign that we’re in for a rough time ahead.

Another thing that I am watching is US new residential construction .
It fell 5 % in August .
September @ @ @ @ @ Lumber ( $ LBS_F ) continues to decline , while $ ITB is hitting new @ @ @ @ @ things is wrong here .
pic.twitter.com/HMLxfyhJHE

Another thing that I am watching is US new residential construction. It fell 5% in August. September numbers come out 20 Oct. Lumber ($LBS_F) continues to decline, while $ITB is hitting new highs. One of these things is wrong here. pic.twitter.com/HMLxfyhJHE
— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 (@chigrl) October 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--More cracking down on the orthodox J – This time : Arrests when they come out of the synagogue.

BREAKING : Hershy Tischler arrested on his way out of Shul for his involvement in the anti-lockdown protestspic.twitter.com/gzBzA2gX7R

BREAKING: Hershy Tischler arrested on his way out of Shul for his involvement in the anti-lockdown protestspic.twitter.com/gzBzA2gX7R
— Jewish Deplorable 🇺🇸 (@TrumpJew) October 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--NOW THEY TELL US: WHO warns against COVID-19 lockdowns due to economic damage.

The World Health Organization has warned leaders against relying on COVID-19 lockdowns to tackle outbreaks — after previously saying countries should be careful how quickly they reopen .
WHO envoy Dr. David Nabarro said such restrictive measures should only be treated as a last resort , the British magazine the Spectator reported in a video interview .
“ We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus , ” Nabarro said .
“ The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your health workers who are exhausted , but by and large , we ’ d rather not do it.
” Nabarro said tight restrictions cause significant harm , particularly on the global economy .
“ Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never , ever belittle , and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer , ” he said .
He added that lockdowns have severely impacted countries that rely on tourism .
“ Just look at what ’ s happened to the tourism industry in the Caribbean , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people aren ’ t taking their holidays , ” Nabarro told the outlet .

The World Health Organization has warned leaders against relying on COVID-19 lockdowns to tackle outbreaks — after previously saying countries should be careful how quickly they reopen.
WHO envoy Dr. David Nabarro said such restrictive measures should only be treated as a last resort, the British magazine the Spectator reported in a video interview.
“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Nabarro said.
“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”
Nabarro said tight restrictions cause significant harm, particularly on the global economy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said.
He added that lockdowns have severely impacted countries that rely on tourism.
“Just look at what’s happened to the tourism industry in the Caribbean, for example, or in the Pacific because people aren’t taking their holidays,” Nabarro told the outlet.
nypost.com/2020/10/11/who-warns-against-covid-19-lockdowns-due-to-economic-damage/


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--ROGER SIMON: China and Iran Want You to Vote for Biden…. LONELY JOE: Not A Single Person Showed Up t

ROGER SIMON: China and Iran Want You to Vote for Biden…. LONELY JOE: Not A Single Person Showed Up to Biden/Harris Event In Arizona.

It ’ s no secret the totalitarian governments of China and Iran favor Joe Bidenin the presidential election .
The Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) would like nothing more than to go back to the status quo ante , the pre-Trump world when American politicians convinced themselves ( or pretended to ) China would turn democratic if we gave them favorable trade terms and shut up about their monstrous repressive policies , including the hundreds of thousands—or is it millions—languishing in “ reeducation ” camps while the rest of their population becomes subject to the pervasive Orwellian surveillance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then there ’ s the little matter of the as yet still mysterious provenance of the novel coronavirus , appropriately called the CCP virus hereabouts , that has wreaked such havoc across the globe .
When we will know the truth about what really happened in the Wuhan virology lab ?
Would a Biden administration even want to know ?
And , yes , as most of us realize , there ’ s considerably more , but it was all okay in the view of Democrats like Biden and Sen. Dianne Feinstein—she of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , was suddenly exposed as a spy after twenty years of service to her—as long as there was money to be made .
And there was , a lot , as Hunter Biden , not to mention Feinstein ’ s husband and Michael Bloomberg , can attest .
Hunter ’ s father had to revise his initial praise of China , pooh-poohing the idea they might be an enemy , when things started to get a little obvious and handlers whispered in his ear this was not exactly the road to the White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to feel reassured about how Joe would behave toward the communist regime once in office .
There ’ s a great deal more reason , actual evidence of deals , to believe the Chinese have “ special leverage ” with Biden than there ever was that the Russians had something on Trump .
And politicians like Biden and Feinstein are far from alone in their fealty to Beijing .
They have plenty of support among American progressives .
As is well known , many of our universities , from Harvard on down , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the CCP to regard them favorably , even have had spies on the faculty , with Confucius Institutes , essentially communist propaganda arms , installed on many campuses .
Would a President Biden fight this network of corruption that actually justifies and teaches totalitarianism to our youth ?
Does he even think or know about it ?
We know Trump would because he already has .
He does it .

via theepochtimes:
It’s no secret the totalitarian governments of China and Iran favor Joe Bidenin the presidential election.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would like nothing more than to go back to the status quo ante, the pre-Trump world when American politicians convinced themselves (or pretended to) China would turn democratic if we gave them favorable trade terms and shut up about their monstrous repressive policies, including the hundreds of thousands—or is it millions—languishing in “reeducation” camps while the rest of their population becomes subject to the pervasive Orwellian surveillance of the “social credit“ system.
Then there’s the little matter of the as yet still mysterious provenance of the novel coronavirus, appropriately called the CCP virus hereabouts, that has wreaked such havoc across the globe. When we will know the truth about what really happened in the Wuhan virology lab? Would a Biden administration even want to know?
And, yes, as most of us realize, there’s considerably more, but it was all okay in the view of Democrats like Biden and Sen. Dianne Feinstein—she of the Chinese chauffeur who, mirabile dictu, was suddenly exposed as a spy after twenty years of service to her—as long as there was money to be made.
And there was, a lot, as Hunter Biden, not to mention Feinstein’s husband and Michael Bloomberg, can attest.
Hunter’s father had to revise his initial praise of China, pooh-poohing the idea they might be an enemy, when things started to get a little obvious and handlers whispered in his ear this was not exactly the road to the White House.
So it’s hard to feel reassured about how Joe would behave toward the communist regime once in office. There’s a great deal more reason, actual evidence of deals, to believe the Chinese have “special leverage” with Biden than there ever was that the Russians had something on Trump.
And politicians like Biden and Feinstein are far from alone in their fealty to Beijing. They have plenty of support among American progressives. As is well known, many of our universities, from Harvard on down, have been bribed with huge sums by the CCP to regard them favorably, even have had spies on the faculty, with Confucius Institutes, essentially communist propaganda arms, installed on many campuses.
Would a President Biden fight this network of corruption that actually justifies and teaches totalitarianism to our youth? Does he even think or know about it?
We know Trump would because he already has. He does it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--US Household Savings Are Decreasing Since April, New Stimulus Package Postpone Might Turn Spendings

US Household Savings Are Decreasing Since April, New Stimulus Package Postpone Might Turn Spendings Negative

Political instability could reduce the savings and consumption of American citizens if new economic incentives are delayed .
Jeroen Blokland , market analyst and Head of the Multi-Asset Robeco Fund , reports on how US household savings have grown since April .
Undoubtedly , to some extent , this is due to a decrease in demand caused by the coronavirus epidemic , but incentives , which include material assistance to US citizens , play a significant role .
Besides , the analyst himself believes that if the next stimulus package for consumers is delayed , it is highly likely that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it does not turn negative at all .
“ This chart neatly shows that US household savings got a massive boost in April because of government transfer payments , but also that they have been coming down since .
With new # stimulus postponed consumer spending will likely slow if not turn negative.
” Jeroen Blokland via Twitter Let us recall that President Donald Trump has already threatened the cancellation of the next stimulus package , forbidding his associates to conduct any negotiations with the Democratic Party .
He clarified that any talks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be held in November after Trump wins the election .
Nevertheless , a little later , Mr. Trump said that he was ready to sign a decision on incentives if the only paragraph of it were benefits for US citizens .

by Usman Salis
Political instability could reduce the savings and consumption of American citizens if new economic incentives are delayed.
Image Source: Twitter @jsblokland
Household Savings Decrease, Spending Might Turn Negative
Jeroen Blokland, market analyst and Head of the Multi-Asset Robeco Fund, reports on how US household savings have grown since April. Undoubtedly, to some extent, this is due to a decrease in demand caused by the coronavirus epidemic, but incentives, which include material assistance to US citizens, play a significant role.
Besides, the analyst himself believes that if the next stimulus package for consumers is delayed, it is highly likely that the demand for goods will decline if it does not turn negative at all.
“This chart neatly shows that US household savings got a massive boost in April because of government transfer payments, but also that they have been coming down since. With new #stimulus postponed consumer spending will likely slow if not turn negative.” Jeroen Blokland via Twitter
Donald Trump Halts New Stimulus Package Talks With Democrats
Let us recall that President Donald Trump has already threatened the cancellation of the next stimulus package, forbidding his associates to conduct any negotiations with the Democratic Party.
He clarified that any talks about the next stimulus package could only be held in November after Trump wins the election. Nevertheless, a little later, Mr. Trump said that he was ready to sign a decision on incentives if the only paragraph of it were benefits for US citizens.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Wow Campaign clip: Do you know where I am? Maxine Waters’ $6 Million Mansion…

Do you know where I am ?
Maxine Waters ’ $ 6 Million Mansion .
Do you know where I @ @ @ @ @ District .
Mansion Maxine Waters doesn ’ t live in her District — I do @ @ @ @ @ Collins and I ’ m running for Congress against Maxine Waters .

Do you know where I am?
Maxine Waters’ $6 Million Mansion.
Do you know where I’m NOT?
Her District.
Mansion Maxine Waters doesn’t live in her District — I do.
My name is Joe Collins and I’m running for Congress against Maxine Waters.
Help Me WIN: t.co/K4OcfhUR0E pic.twitter.com/GgnmvSWSq9
— Joe E. Collins III For Congress CA-43 (@joecollins43rd) October 10, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Amount of the US Initial Jobless Claims Is Still Higher than During Financial Crisis of 2009

The US economy has set a new anti-record for the number of claims for unemployment .
There Are Still More Jobless Claims Than in 2009 Jeroen Blokland , market analyst and Head of the Multi-Asset Robeco Fund , demonstrates what a significant number of jobless claims in the US economy , six months after overcoming the crisis .
According to him , even now the number of requests for benefits exceeds the peak of the 2009 financial crisis .
Let ’ s clarify that this is the maximum amount of jobless claims in the entire modern history of the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Previously , 2009 was indeed the leader , but now these indicators are in the shadow of new anti-records caused by a sharp increase in the number of unemployed due to the economic lockdown associated with the coronavirus .
Of course , the crisis caused by the pandemic has affected not only households but also companies .
So , for example , most of the stocks of companies included in the S & P 500 still failed to recover from the crisis , is at levels below January .
Only the largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show themselves , confidently recovering from the crisis .
However , they , in turn , are more prone to correction : it was the stocks of the largest technology companies that led the short-term correction in early September , having lost a significant part of their market capitalization in just two weeks and they still might fall even deeper .

by Eseandre Mordi
The US economy has set a new anti-record for the number of claims for unemployment.
Jeroen Blokland, market analyst and Head of the Multi-Asset Robeco Fund, demonstrates what a significant number of jobless claims in the US economy, six months after overcoming the crisis. According to him, even now the number of requests for benefits exceeds the peak of the 2009 financial crisis.
“To give you an idea. During the height of the Great Financial Crisis in 2009, initial jobless claims peaked at 665K. Six months into the recovery and at 840K we are still way above that number.” Jeroen Blokland via Twitter
Let’s clarify that this is the maximum amount of jobless claims in the entire modern history of the United States, more than half a century. Previously, 2009 was indeed the leader, but now these indicators are in the shadow of new anti-records caused by a sharp increase in the number of unemployed due to the economic lockdown associated with the coronavirus.
Companies Are Struggle Too
Of course, the crisis caused by the pandemic has affected not only households but also companies. So, for example, most of the stocks of companies included in the S&P 500 still failed to recover from the crisis, is at levels below January.
Only the largest companies that focus on developed foreign markets show themselves, confidently recovering from the crisis. However, they, in turn, are more prone to correction: it was the stocks of the largest technology companies that led the short-term correction in early September, having lost a significant part of their market capitalization in just two weeks and they still might fall even deeper.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Why Nuclear Fusion Remains Our Best Bet For 100% Clean Energy

Long relegated to the trash heap of utopic clean energy technologies in the realm of harvesting energy from black holes , nuclear fusion is suddenly making a big comeback–and for good reason .
Fusion is not only ultra-powerful , but it is also the cleanest and virtually limitless energy source known to man .
In fact , nuclear fusion is pretty much our perfect energy source that is not only likely to play an outsized role in the shift from ‘ dirty ’ fossil fuels to clean energy but also power the conquest of our Final Frontier : Space .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the safest energy with no greenhouse gases and no long-lived radioactive wastes .
Yet , somehow , practical nuclear fusion energy on our planet has remained a far off mirage .
But finally , this elusive energy source could be closer to becoming an everyday reality than we imagine .
Nuclear fission is already our most reliable clean energy source with minimal downtime albeit with a spotty safety track record including Chernobyl , Fukushima and Three Mile Island disasters .
Nuclear fusion , on the other hand , is not only much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk for a Chernobyl-like meltdown .
After 35 years of painstaking preparation and countless delays , scientists have finally broken ground by kicking off the five-year assembly phase of the massive International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor ( ITER ) , the world ’ s largest fusion reactor , in Saint-Paul-les-Durance , France .
Funded by six nations , including the US , Russia , China , India , Japan , and South Korea , ITER will be the world ’ s largest tokamak fusion device with an estimated cost of ~ $ 24 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of thermal fusion energy as early as 2025 .
Initially , the United States and the former Soviet Union were the first countries to conduct fusion research due to its potential for the development of atomic weapons .
Consequently , fusion technology remained classified until the 1958 Atoms for Peace conference in Geneva .
Fusion research became ‘ Big Science ’ in the 1970s thanks to a breakthrough at the Soviet tokamak .
However , it soon became clear that practical nuclear fusion would only make the desired progress through international cooperation due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the devices involved .
Nuclear fusion basically involves smashing together hydrogen atoms hard enough to form helium and release energy in the E=MC2 mass-energy equivalence .
Fusion is the process through which all stars , from red dwarfs through the Sun to the most massive supergiants , generate vast amounts of energy in their cores by rising to temperatures of 4,000,000 K or higher .
Nuclear fusion generates four times as much energy from the same mass of fuel as nuclear fission , a technology that involves splitting atoms that is currently employed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Massive gravitational forces in the Sun and stars create the right conditions for fusion to proceed at considerably lower temperatures ; however , earth ’ s much smaller mass ( 1/330,000th of the Sun ’ s mass ) and smaller gravity means that much higher temperatures in the order of hundreds of millions of Kelvin are required to kick start the process of nuclear fusion and sustain it .
Unfortunately , every fusion experiment so far has been energy negative , taking in more energy than it generates .
ITER is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon-free , energy-positive fusion energy can become a commercial reality .
ITER plans to use tokamak reactors to confine a deuterium-tritium plasma magnetically .
The big fundamental challenge here is for ITER to achieve a rate of heat emitted by a fusion plasma higher than the rate of energy injected into the plasma .
It is only natural to wonder what is so different this time around that makes researchers confident that ITER will not be just another expensive experiment that will end up in nuclear fusion ’ s trash heap .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ITER scientists have successfully developed a new superconducting material–essentially a steel tape coated with yttrium-barium-copper oxide , or YBCO , which allows them to build smaller and more powerful magnets .
This lowers the energy required to get the fusion reaction off the ground .
According to Fusion for Energy–the EU ’ s joint undertaking for ITER–18 niobium-tin superconducting magnets , aka toroidal field coils , will be used to contain the 150 million degrees Celsius plasma .
The powerful magnets will generate a powerful magnetic field equal to 11.8 Tesla , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s magnetic field .
Nearly 3,000 tonnes of these superconducting magnets will be connected by 200km of superconducting cables and kept at -269C by the world ’ s largest cryostat manufactured in India .
Europe will manufacture ten of the toroidal field coils with Japan manufacturing nine .
The 23,000-ton tokamak is designed to produce 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of input heating power , thus making it energy positive .
The world ’ s 440 nuclear fission reactors generate ~10 % of global electricity needs .
A similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all coal-powered power plants , which currently supply nearly 40 % of the world ’ s electricity .
But other than their absurd power capabilities , fusion reactors have been touted as a perfect energy source since they can not melt down and produce much less radioactive waste unlike fission reactors , which have in the past proven catastrophic from uncontrolled chain reactions .
But here ’ s the irony of it all : Fission nuclear reactors remain the only reliable source of tritium for use in fusion reactors .
The deuterium-tritium reaction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mainly because its reactivity is 20x higher than a deuterium-deuterium fueled reaction , and requires a temperature only a third of the temperature required by deuterium-only fusion .
Unlike deuterium , which is readily available in ordinary water , tritium is rare in nature , mainly because this hydrogen isotope has a half-life of only 12.3 years .
If successful , ITER will become the world ’ s first source of electrical power that does not exploit a naturally occurring fuel .
It ’ s going to be interesting to see whether ITER @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same ignominy that conventional nuclear energy has struggled to shake off .

By Alex Kimani
Long relegated to the trash heap of utopic clean energy technologies in the realm of harvesting energy from black holes, nuclear fusion is suddenly making a big comeback–and for good reason.
Fusion is not only ultra-powerful, but it is also the cleanest and virtually limitless energy source known to man. In fact, nuclear fusion is pretty much our perfect energy source that is not only likely to play an outsized role in the shift from ‘dirty’ fossil fuels to clean energy but also power the conquest of our Final Frontier: Space.
Fusion energy has the potential to produce the safest energy with no greenhouse gases and no long-lived radioactive wastes.
Yet, somehow, practical nuclear fusion energy on our planet has remained a far off mirage.
But finally, this elusive energy source could be closer to becoming an everyday reality than we imagine.
Nuclear fission is already our most reliable clean energy source with minimal downtime albeit with a spotty safety track record including Chernobyl, Fukushima and Three Mile Island disasters. Nuclear fusion, on the other hand, is not only much more powerful than fission but also carries zero risk for a Chernobyl-like meltdown.
Practical Fusion Power
After 35 years of painstaking preparation and countless delays, scientists have finally broken ground by kicking off the five-year assembly phase of the massive International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the world’s largest fusion reactor, in Saint-Paul-les-Durance, France.
Funded by six nations, including the US, Russia, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, ITER will be the world’s largest tokamak fusion device with an estimated cost of ~$24 billion and capable of generating about 500 MW of thermal fusion energy as early as 2025.
Initially, the United States and the former Soviet Union were the first countries to conduct fusion research due to its potential for the development of atomic weapons. Consequently, fusion technology remained classified until the 1958 Atoms for Peace conference in Geneva. Fusion research became ‘Big Science’ in the 1970s thanks to a breakthrough at the Soviet tokamak.
However, it soon became clear that practical nuclear fusion would only make the desired progress through international cooperation due to high costs and the complexity of the devices involved.
Nuclear fusion basically involves smashing together hydrogen atoms hard enough to form helium and release energy in the E=MC2 mass-energy equivalence. Fusion is the process through which all stars, from red dwarfs through the Sun to the most massive supergiants, generate vast amounts of energy in their cores by rising to temperatures of 4,000,000 K or higher.
Nuclear fusion generates four times as much energy from the same mass of fuel as nuclear fission, a technology that involves splitting atoms that is currently employed in the world’s nuclear reactors. Massive gravitational forces in the Sun and stars create the right conditions for fusion to proceed at considerably lower temperatures; however, earth’s much smaller mass (1/330,000th of the Sun’s mass) and smaller gravity means that much higher temperatures in the order of hundreds of millions of Kelvin are required to kick start the process of nuclear fusion and sustain it.
Unfortunately, every fusion experiment so far has been energy negative, taking in more energy than it generates.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
ITER is a nuclear power plant designed to demonstrate that carbon-free, energy-positive fusion energy can become a commercial reality. ITER plans to use tokamak reactors to confine a deuterium-tritium plasma magnetically.
The big fundamental challenge here is for ITER to achieve a rate of heat emitted by a fusion plasma higher than the rate of energy injected into the plasma. It is only natural to wonder what is so different this time around that makes researchers confident that ITER will not be just another expensive experiment that will end up in nuclear fusion’s trash heap.
In a past article, we reported that ITER scientists have successfully developed a new superconducting material–essentially a steel tape coated with yttrium-barium-copper oxide, or YBCO, which allows them to build smaller and more powerful magnets. This lowers the energy required to get the fusion reaction off the ground.
According to Fusion for Energy–the EU’s joint undertaking for ITER–18 niobium-tin superconducting magnets, aka toroidal field coils, will be used to contain the 150 million degrees Celsius plasma. The powerful magnets will generate a powerful magnetic field equal to 11.8 Tesla, or a million times stronger than the earth’s magnetic field. Nearly 3,000 tonnes of these superconducting magnets will be connected by 200km of superconducting cables and kept at -269C by the world’s largest cryostat manufactured in India.
Europe will manufacture ten of the toroidal field coils with Japan manufacturing nine.
The 23,000-ton tokamak is designed to produce 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of input heating power, thus making it energy positive.
Cleaner Than Fission?
The world’s 440 nuclear fission reactors generate ~10% of global electricity needs. A similar amount of fusion reactors could theoretically replace all coal-powered power plants, which currently supply nearly 40% of the world’s electricity.
But other than their absurd power capabilities, fusion reactors have been touted as a perfect energy source since they cannot melt down and produce much less radioactive waste unlike fission reactors, which have in the past proven catastrophic from uncontrolled chain reactions.
But here’s the irony of it all: Fission nuclear reactors remain the only reliable source of tritium for use in fusion reactors.
The deuterium-tritium reaction is favored by fusion developers over deuterium-deuterium mainly because its reactivity is 20x higher than a deuterium-deuterium fueled reaction, and requires a temperature only a third of the temperature required by deuterium-only fusion. Unlike deuterium, which is readily available in ordinary water, tritium is rare in nature, mainly because this hydrogen isotope has a half-life of only 12.3 years.
If successful, ITER will become the world’s first source of electrical power that does not exploit a naturally occurring fuel.
It’s going to be interesting to see whether ITER and subsequent fusion power plants will incur the same ignominy that conventional nuclear energy has struggled to shake off.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--Politician raises alarm over Trudeau Govt’s plan to build COVID ‘Quarantine/Isolation’ camps

The camps will be built across Canada OTTAWA , Ontario , October 9 , 2020 ( LifeSiteNews ) – An @ @ @ @ @ over the Trudeau Liberal government ’ s plan to expand COVID isolation/quarantine facilities coast to @ @ @ @ @ Independent Ontario MPP for Lanark , Frontenac & Kingston , expressed concern over the “ @ @ @ @ @ the provincial question period late this week .
He asked the Doug Ford government of @ @ @ @ @ “ how many of these camps will be built , and how many people does @ @ @ @ @ ” He pointed out how documentation shows that the “ Federal Quarantine/Isolation sites ” could @ @ @ @ @ requirements ” besides for COVID-19 .
Listen to Steve describing the new rules in Australia @ @ @ @ @ will come to Canada also & that ’ s why the turd wants to build @ @ @ @

The camps will be built across Canada
OTTAWA, Ontario, October 9, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) – An Ontario politician is raising alarm over the Trudeau Liberal government’s plan to expand COVID isolation/quarantine facilities coast to coast.
Randy Hillier, Independent Ontario MPP for Lanark, Frontenac & Kingston, expressed concern over the “Federal Quarantine/Isolation sites” in the provincial question period late this week.
He asked the Doug Ford government of Ontario if they knew of “how many of these camps will be built, and how many people does this government expect to detain.” He pointed out how documentation shows that the “Federal Quarantine/Isolation sites” could be used for “other requirements” besides for COVID-19.
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More:
www.lifesitenews.com/news/politician-raises-alarm-over-trudeau-govts-plan-to-build-covid-quarantine-isolation-camps
Listen to Steve describing the new rules in Australia. I wonder if this will come to Canada also & that’s why the turd wants to build all those camps?
h/t me777


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--We might win this election, but we will lose the next one

The communist wave is going to eventually take over , we ’ re in real danger .
Yes , We @ @ @ @ @ War …or any other “ Right-wing extremists ” took to the streets and behaved as @ @ @ @ @ — looting , burning , assaulting , threatening , or even just blocking traffic — @ @ @ @ @ within twenty-four hours .
All the might of state and local police forces and federal @ @ @ @ @ unleashed against them , and the cops would not have played nice .
Many “ @ @ @ @ @ up dead or injured , and the survivors would have faced extensive criminal charges .
@ @ @ @ @ is why “ Right-wing violence ” is not the greater threat .
Left-wing violence is @ @ @ @ @ and support , financial and otherwise , of the establishment .
It is a threat @ @ @ @ @ especially white Americans .
Right-wing violence only poses a threat ( so far , a @ @ @ @ @ the establishment .

The communist wave is going to eventually take over, we’re in real danger.
Yes, We are Headed for Violent Civil War
…or any other “Right-wing extremists” took to the streets and behaved as BLM and Antifa have behaved — looting, burning, assaulting, threatening, or even just blocking traffic — they would have been crushed within twenty-four hours. All the might of state and local police forces and federal law enforcement would have been unleashed against them, and the cops would not have played nice. Many “Right-wingers” would have wound up dead or injured, and the survivors would have faced extensive criminal charges.
This, gentle reader, is why “Right-wing violence” is not the greater threat. Left-wing violence is taking place with the approval and support, financial and otherwise, of the establishment. It is a threat to all ordinary Americans, especially white Americans. Right-wing violence only poses a threat (so far, a very mild one) to the establishment.
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counter-currents.com/2020/10/yes-we-are-headed-for-violent-civil-war/
AT


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--The World’s First Fully Driverless Vehicle Ready To Hit The Roads

Waymo just announced its plans to deploy vehicles without backup safety drivers , making a major milestone in a sector that has witnessed many ups and downs and stops and starts .
The company , the self-driving unit of Google ’ s parent Alphabet , said it will soon expand its driverless ride-hailing service to include the general public in Phoenix , Arizona .
“ Beginning today , October 8 , we ’ re excited to open up our fully driverless offering to Waymo One riders .
Members of the public service can now take friends and family along on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world , ” the company said in a blog post .
For now , Waymo ’ s service will still be limited to Phoenix , but the company hopes for that to change in the future .
Waymo , and other autonomous vehicle developers , chose Arizona for testing due to an apparent lack of restrictions and regulatory hurdles .
Still , offering rides to all customers is a huge advantage over its competitors .
Being first always helps with reputation – and revenue .
Waymo ’ s competitors are still in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s CEO John Krafcik said in a statement that Waymo is looking for the opportunity to bring its driverless services to the company ’ s home state of California next .
The following year , the company joined with carmaker Jaguar and announced a deal that included up to 20,000 Jaguar I-PACE electric vehicles in its upcoming autonomous fleet .
The partnership , worth up to $ 1.5 billion , is a further mark of Waymo ’ s ambition in the race against time to beat Uber to the definitive self-driving finish line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are set to join the Chrysler Pacifica , which has already been used extensively in testing for the company ’ s autonomous driving technologies .
Waymo had previously said it was discussing collaboration with Honda ; however , that relationship failed to blossom and Honda recently declared its intention to bring its own fully autonomous vehicle to the market by 2025 .
Waymo is competing with several other players to deploy such vehicles for the masses , but it ’ s not as easy as they all thought it would be years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ford is also collaborating with Germany ’ s Volkswagen and Argo AI to introduce autonomous vehicle technology in the U.S. and Europe .
Due to the pandemic , Ford said it will delay its launch plans until 2022 .
Another of Detroit ’ s Big Three , General Motors , unveiled its first driverless vehicle in January and announced it would start delivering the first vehicle in the next five years .
Last September , Hyundai said that it would form a $ 4-billion joint venture with Aptiv to advance the development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company announced it would start mass production of driverless cars in 2024 .
As for Uber , sued by Waymo for stealing its trade secrets and settled for $ 245 million , it ’ s self-driving division , Advanced Technologies Group ( ATG ) , has had a tough time since a fatal crash involving one of its self-driving cars in 2019 .

By Josh Owens
Waymo just announced its plans to deploy vehicles without backup safety drivers, making a major milestone in a sector that has witnessed many ups and downs and stops and starts. The company, the self-driving unit of Google’s parent Alphabet, said it will soon expand its driverless ride-hailing service to include the general public in Phoenix, Arizona.
“Beginning today, October 8, we’re excited to open up our fully driverless offering to Waymo One riders. Members of the public service can now take friends and family along on their rides and share their experience with the world,” the company said in a blog post.
For now, Waymo’s service will still be limited to Phoenix, but the company hopes for that to change in the future. Waymo, and other autonomous vehicle developers, chose Arizona for testing due to an apparent lack of restrictions and regulatory hurdles.
Still, offering rides to all customers is a huge advantage over its competitors. Being first always helps with reputation – and revenue. Waymo’s competitors are still in the testing phase.
The company’s CEO John Krafcik said in a statement that Waymo is looking for the opportunity to bring its driverless services to the company’s home state of California next.
Waymo started its driverless car development in 2017.
The following year, the company joined with carmaker Jaguar and announced a deal that included up to 20,000 Jaguar I-PACE electric vehicles in its upcoming autonomous fleet.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The partnership, worth up to $1.5 billion, is a further mark of Waymo’s ambition in the race against time to beat Uber to the definitive self-driving finish line for a driverless ride-hailing service. Jaguars are set to join the Chrysler Pacifica, which has already been used extensively in testing for the company’s autonomous driving technologies.
Waymo had previously said it was discussing collaboration with Honda; however, that relationship failed to blossom and Honda recently declared its intention to bring its own fully autonomous vehicle to the market by 2025.
Waymo is competing with several other players to deploy such vehicles for the masses, but it’s not as easy as they all thought it would be years ago. Pandemic also slowed down the progress.
Ford is also collaborating with Germany’s Volkswagen and Argo AI to introduce autonomous vehicle technology in the U.S. and Europe. Due to the pandemic, Ford said it will delay its launch plans until 2022.
Another of Detroit’s Big Three, General Motors, unveiled its first driverless vehicle in January and announced it would start delivering the first vehicle in the next five years.
Last September, Hyundai said that it would form a $4-billion joint venture with Aptiv to advance the development of production-ready autonomous driving systems. The company announced it would start mass production of driverless cars in 2024.
As for Uber, sued by Waymo for stealing its trade secrets and settled for $245 million, it’s self-driving division, Advanced Technologies Group (ATG), has had a tough time since a fatal crash involving one of its self-driving cars in 2019.
By Josh Owens for Safehaven.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--What Is Slowing The Oil Market Recovery?

Just after global oil demand crashed by 20 percent in April , analysts predicted that consumption would recover in the second half of 2020 and , supported by the OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. curtailments , would help the oil market to rebalance .
By July , oil demand had recouped most of the losses incurred during the second quarter , but the recovery started to wobble with the resurgence of coronavirus cases in major economies , including in the United States , India , and Europe .
High uncertainties about COVID-19 and the economic recovery started to weigh on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of the summer when it became clear that 2020 would not be the year of oil market balance as the world still has a lot of excess crude and oil product stocks to process .
Stocks are drawing down in the world ’ s top petroleum consumer , the United States , but the pace is very slow .
The market is moving toward rebalancing , but this process will likely take many months more and certainly more than initially expected .
A number of uncertainties put downward pressure on every oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days , including when an effective vaccine could be available to many people in many countries when economies recover , and whether consumer behavior has changed for good with work from home and virtual corporate events and conferences .
Oil market rebalancing also hangs on the future policies of the OPEC+ group , which , as-is , is planning to additionally taper the oil production cuts from 7.7 million bpd to 5.8 million bpd beginning in January 2021 .
This would come in Q1 , in which oil demand in the world is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inventory reports in the world ’ s largest oil consumer and most transparent market , the United States , have provided some encouraging signs in recent weeks .
Still , we are a long way off to a market balance because the record-high stocks that were built earlier this year need to be drawn down .
Total crude oil and product stocks in the U.S. have declined in 10 out of the last 11 weeks , Reuters market analyst John Kemp estimates , based on EIA data .
In the latest reporting week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inventory build of 500,000 barrels through October 2 , but a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks and a sizeable increase in production were the bullish highlights of the weekly inventory report .
At 492.9 million barrels , U.S. crude oil inventories were still about 12 percent above the five-year average for this time of year .
The excess stocks , however , have shrunk from 19 percent above the five-year average in July .
Total motor gasoline inventories were just below the five-year average for this time of year—the first time gasoline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March .
The stock drawdown is already taking place , but the balancing will take longer than expected and could be derailed by stricter measures to combat resurging COVID-19 cases , especially in the flu season this fall and winter .
OPEC ’ s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said earlier this month that a vaccine would “ significantly brighten ” the demand/supply scenario , but until that time , “ large uncertainties and risks will continue to destabilize the oil market and affect the pace of economic recovery.
” These large uncertainties could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , again , considering that it currently plans to ease the cuts by another 2 million bpd as of January 2021 .
OPEC ’ s top producer and de facto leader , Saudi Arabia , is reportedly mulling over canceling the easing of the cuts , senior Saudi oil advisers told The Wall Street Journal this week .
If rising COVID-19 cases lead to more local lockdowns and reduced economic activity in the coming months , the OPEC+ alliance may have no other choice but to postpone the easing of the cuts if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil stockpiles around the world amid stalled oil demand recovery .
“ Despite expected inventory draws in the coming months , EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices .
EIA forecasts monthly Brent spot prices will average $ 42/b during the fourth quarter of 2020 and will rise to an average of $ 47/b in 2021 , ” the EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook this week .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
Just after global oil demand crashed by 20 percent in April, analysts predicted that consumption would recover in the second half of 2020 and, supported by the OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. curtailments, would help the oil market to rebalance. By July, oil demand had recouped most of the losses incurred during the second quarter, but the recovery started to wobble with the resurgence of coronavirus cases in major economies, including in the United States, India, and Europe. High uncertainties about COVID-19 and the economic recovery started to weigh on the oil market and prices at the end of the summer when it became clear that 2020 would not be the year of oil market balance as the world still has a lot of excess crude and oil product stocks to process.
Stocks are drawing down in the world’s top petroleum consumer, the United States, but the pace is very slow. The market is moving toward rebalancing, but this process will likely take many months more and certainly more than initially expected.
A number of uncertainties put downward pressure on every oil demand forecast and on oil prices these days, including when an effective vaccine could be available to many people in many countries when economies recover, and whether consumer behavior has changed for good with work from home and virtual corporate events and conferences.
Oil market rebalancing also hangs on the future policies of the OPEC+ group, which, as-is, is planning to additionally taper the oil production cuts from 7.7 million bpd to 5.8 million bpd beginning in January 2021. This would come in Q1, in which oil demand in the world is typically at its weakest.
The weekly inventory reports in the world’s largest oil consumer and most transparent market, the United States, have provided some encouraging signs in recent weeks. Still, we are a long way off to a market balance because the record-high stocks that were built earlier this year need to be drawn down.
Total crude oil and product stocks in the U.S. have declined in 10 out of the last 11 weeks, Reuters market analyst John Kemp estimates, based on EIA data.
In the latest reporting week, the EIA reported a crude oil inventory build of 500,000 barrels through October 2, but a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks and a sizeable increase in production were the bullish highlights of the weekly inventory report.
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At 492.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were still about 12 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. The excess stocks, however, have shrunk from 19 percent above the five-year average in July. Total motor gasoline inventories were just below the five-year average for this time of year—the first time gasoline stocks fell below the five-year average since March.
The stock drawdown is already taking place, but the balancing will take longer than expected and could be derailed by stricter measures to combat resurging COVID-19 cases, especially in the flu season this fall and winter.
OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said earlier this month that a vaccine would “significantly brighten” the demand/supply scenario, but until that time, “large uncertainties and risks will continue to destabilize the oil market and affect the pace of economic recovery.”
These large uncertainties could put the OPEC+ coalition in a bind, again, considering that it currently plans to ease the cuts by another 2 million bpd as of January 2021.
OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is reportedly mulling over canceling the easing of the cuts, senior Saudi oil advisers told The Wall Street Journal this week.
If rising COVID-19 cases lead to more local lockdowns and reduced economic activity in the coming months, the OPEC+ alliance may have no other choice but to postpone the easing of the cuts if it wants to prevent another rise in oil stockpiles around the world amid stalled oil demand recovery.
“Despite expected inventory draws in the coming months, EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices. EIA forecasts monthly Brent spot prices will average $42/b during the fourth quarter of 2020 and will rise to an average of $47/b in 2021,” the EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook this week.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-12--OMG! Trump Taps Judicial Watch’s Tom Fitton For Court Oversight Body With Power to Remove Judges

I ’ ll be making another donation to Tom tonight !
Yes .
Judicial Watch is a 501 ( c @ @ @ @ @ organization , and contributions are tax-deductible for income , gift , and estate taxes .

I’ll be making another donation to Tom tonight!
Trump Taps Judicial Watch’s Tom Fitton For Court Oversight Body With Power to Remove Judges t.co/zewtl6nQkj via @yournewswire — Tom Fitton (@TomFitton) October 6, 2020
Are donations to Judicial Watch tax-deductible?
Yes. Judicial Watch is a 501(c)(3) charitable organization, and contributions are tax-deductible for income, gift, and estate taxes.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.judicialwatch.org/about/support-judicial-watch/
I'm done with it. No masks, masks, panic shutdowns,hospital capacity,"models" collapse,then testing, then contact tracing, vaccine, forced masks ("droplets"!), "cases!", vaccine again, #Hydroxychloroquine suppression, NATIONAL mask mandate, and now NO ONE is supposed to get sick? t.co/4GSRn4DB3G — Tom Fitton (@TomFitton) October 10, 2020
Can’t believe these con men are not yet being PROSECUTED. Pathetic! t.co/FXn48qMHdE — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2020
So I had to constantly fight off all of this Scum, achieve more than any other President in First Term, and then they talk Chaos. They created crimes against me and this administration! t.co/jlITzFMH2E — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Why the Delay of the Durham Report? Intentional?

COMMENT : Mr. Armstrong : I am discouraged but even more angry about the non-action of the Justice Dept .
And the drip drip drip of the Russian investigation documents that seem to imply a corrupt CIA , State Dept , FBI , the previous White House etc .
etc .
I see this issue as the way to elect a new administration and destroy the current one by stalling , by lying and covering up information that we voters should know about before the November election .
Yet today Mr. Barr is saying nothing will come out prior to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Durham has or is uncovering is not going to come out , if at all ?
God help us all !
ANSWER : Unfortunately , because this has been so long in coming , to release it just before the election it would be characterized as being politically motivated .
On the other hand , holding off until after the election raises the risks about if the bureaucracy is still not really protecting itself knowing that a Biden victory and the investigation will be terminated .
There is little doubt that James Comey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really a fair investigation .
He was told by the CIA that this was made up by Hillary yet he continued and when he interviewed Hillary , he never took notes or recorded it to protect her from ever being prosecuted for perjury .
The delay of the Durham Report until after the election is clearly a prayer that Trump is defeated and this investigation will go into the trash bin .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong: I am discouraged but even more angry about the non-action of the Justice Dept. And the drip drip drip of the Russian investigation documents that seem to imply a corrupt CIA, State Dept, FBI, the previous White House etc. etc. I see this issue as the way to elect a new administration and destroy the current one by stalling, by lying and covering up information that we voters should know about before the November election. Yet today Mr. Barr is saying nothing will come out prior to Nov 3rd. So, whatever John Durham has or is uncovering is not going to come out, if at all? God help us all!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
JR
ANSWER: Unfortunately, because this has been so long in coming, to release it just before the election it would be characterized as being politically motivated. On the other hand, holding off until after the election raises the risks about if the bureaucracy is still not really protecting itself knowing that a Biden victory and the investigation will be terminated. There is little doubt that James Comey would go to prison if this were really a fair investigation. He was told by the CIA that this was made up by Hillary yet he continued and when he interviewed Hillary, he never took notes or recorded it to protect her from ever being prosecuted for perjury. The delay of the Durham Report until after the election is clearly a prayer that Trump is defeated and this investigation will go into the trash bin.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Turkey is facing the consequences of another currency collapse

Today we have an example of an exception proving the rule .
Indeed it is something so rare in these days of negative interest-rates that I hope you are all sitting comfortably .
ISTANBUL ( Reuters ) – Turkey ’ s central bank raised the interest rate in its lira swap operation to 11.75 % from 10.25 % on Friday , continuing additional tightening steps in the face of a weakening lira after unexpectedly hiking its benchmark interest rate last month .
Following the rate hike in its swap transactions , the lira rebounded to near 7.90 against the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier in the day .
It had eased back to 7.9375 as of 1010 GMT .
Today is full of hints or more interest-rate cuts in China and Europe but Turkey has found itself raising them again , albeit in an official way .
But as you can see the initial reaction in terms of the Turkish Lira was along the lines of “ meh ” .Actually the Turkish Lira did rally later to 7.84 , but that was from another perspective only back to where it was on Wednesday and this morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been a hard year as Bloomberg points out .
As you can see that level got replaced and in spite of the unofficial interest-rate rise we are below it now .
Regular readers may well recall that the Lira was slip-sliding away and hitting new lows back in the summer of 2018 and the move through 6 versus the US Dollar was regarded as significant whereas now we are on the verge of 8 being the big figure .
Because of the economic links the exchange-rate with the Euro is significant .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mulling their lending to Turkish borrowers as well as Euro area exporters struggling with an exchange-rate of 9.32 .
That is some 43 % lower than a year ago .
Whilst we are discussing big figure changes we see that the UK Pound £ now buys more than ten Turkish Lira .
This is the obvious initial consequence of an exchange-rate depreciation .
That is from the latest Minutes of the Turkish central bank or TCMB and in fact the impact is even larger in essential goods .
As important is what happens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
With the ongoing fall in the Lira that looks too low to me .
On the other hand I think that Ptofessor Steve Hanke is too high .
I can see how goods inflation might have such influences but other prices will not respond so mechanically .
You might think that an ever more competitive economy in terms of the exchange-rate would lead to a balance of payments triumph .
However this morning ’ s figures tell a different story .
There are two highlights here .
It is significant that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkish Lira .
But we also note that Turkey has gone from surplus to deficit about which we get more detail here .
One factor at play in the services sector weakness is tourism .
If we look at the year so far we see this is confirmed by a surplus of US $ 4.15 billion as opposed to one of US $ 19.17 billion in the same period in 2019 .
Another way of looking at this is that 3,225,033 visitors are recorded as opposed to 13,349,256 last year .
The problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reverse J Curve effect where imports have become more expensive but it takes time for volumes to shift as well as it taking time for more orders to come in for the relatively cheaper exports .
At the moment that is exacerbated by the pandemic as for example if we stay with tourism international travel has fallen and with further restrictions possible it may not matter how cheap you are .
Staying with theoretical economics we should be seeing the J Curve effect from the 2018 devaluation but right now as we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We get some context here if we note this from Bloomberg .
We note the fact that we have another trend reversal here as most countries have seen lower debt costs whereas Turkey is paying more .
The theme of borrowing in US Dollars is a Turkish theme though and in terms of the money raised each one has so far been a success as in it would have been more expensive later .
The catch is when we get to interest payments and repayments which have got ever more expensive in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in US Dollars or other overseas currencies you are okay but if it is in Lira you are in trouble .
According to the TCMB here is what is coming up from its July data .
August saw an outflow from the TCMB as well .
They started the year at US $ 81.2 billion and are now US $ 41.4 billion .
So far we have noted a financial sector which is in distress with rising interest-rates a falling currency and overseas borrowing in a toxic mix .
Let us now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will impact via general inflation highlighted by foreign goods and services being much more expensive .
So living-standards will be lower .
The normal mechanisms where a currency depreciation can help an economy are in many cases being blocked by the Covid-19 pandemic .
Only on Friday we observed that the UK has been importing less which is pretty much a 2020 generic .
This is added to be the fact that a Turkish economic strength ( tourism ) has had an especially rough 2020 .
There are other issues here as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a surge in demand for safe assets .
Gold of course exacerbates the US Dollar issue as it becomes increasingly important in Turkey .
Actually the central bank has joined the game as its Gold reserves have risen by some US $ 17 billion so far this year and whilst some of that is a higher price it must also have bought some more .
Will more interest-rate increases help ?
I am not so sure as they are usually much smaller than the expected fall in the currency and they will crunch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help of course if Turkey was not either actually in a war or acting belligerently on pretty much every border it has .
Putting it another way government ’ s in economic trouble often look for foreign scapegoats .

by Shaun Richards
Today we have an example of an exception proving the rule. Indeed it is something so rare in these days of negative interest-rates that I hope you are all sitting comfortably.
ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkey’s central bank raised the interest rate in its lira swap operation to 11.75% from 10.25% on Friday, continuing additional tightening steps in the face of a weakening lira after unexpectedly hiking its benchmark interest rate last month. Following the rate hike in its swap transactions, the lira rebounded to near 7.90 against the U.S. dollar from a record low of 7.9550 earlier in the day. It had eased back to 7.9375 as of 1010 GMT.
Today is full of hints or more interest-rate cuts in China and Europe but Turkey has found itself raising them again, albeit in an official way. But as you can see the initial reaction in terms of the Turkish Lira was along the lines of “meh”.Actually the Turkish Lira did rally later to 7.84, but that was from another perspective only back to where it was on Wednesday and this morning it is back to 7.89.
Turkish Lira Troubles
It has been a hard year as Bloomberg points out.
Turkey’s lira depreciated to a record against U.S. dollar, decoupling from other emerging-currencies amid mounting geopolitical risks in the region. The lira fell as much as 0.9% to 7.8692 per dollar, extending losses this year to more than 24%, the second-biggest slide in emerging markets after Brazil’s real.
As you can see that level got replaced and in spite of the unofficial interest-rate rise we are below it now. Regular readers may well recall that the Lira was slip-sliding away and hitting new lows back in the summer of 2018 and the move through 6 versus the US Dollar was regarded as significant whereas now we are on the verge of 8 being the big figure.
Because of the economic links the exchange-rate with the Euro is significant. Indeed some Euro area banks must be mulling their lending to Turkish borrowers as well as Euro area exporters struggling with an exchange-rate of 9.32. That is some 43% lower than a year ago.
Whilst we are discussing big figure changes we see that the UK Pound £ now buys more than ten Turkish Lira.
Inflation Surges
This is the obvious initial consequence of an exchange-rate depreciation.
In August, consumer prices rose by 0.86% and annual inflation remained flat at 11.77%. While annual inflation rose in core goods, energy and food groups, it remained unchanged in the services group. Meanwhile, annual inflation in the alcoholic beverages and tobacco group declined significantly due to the high base from tobacco products
That is from the latest Minutes of the Turkish central bank or TCMB and in fact the impact is even larger in essential goods.
Annual inflation in food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.78 points to 13.51% in August. The rise in annual unprocessed food inflation by 1.51 points to 15.36% was the main driver of this increase.
As important is what happens next and here is the TCMB view.
In September, inflation expectations continued to increase. The year-end inflation expectation rose by 64 basis points to 11.46%, and the 12-month-ahead inflation expectation increased by 45 basis points to 10.15%.
With the ongoing fall in the Lira that looks too low to me. On the other hand I think that Ptofessor Steve Hanke is too high.
Today, I measure #Inflation in #Turkey at 35.67%/yr.
I can see how goods inflation might have such influences but other prices will not respond so mechanically.
Trade Problems
You might think that an ever more competitive economy in terms of the exchange-rate would lead to a balance of payments triumph. However this morning’s figures tell a different story.
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The current account posted USD 4,631 million deficit compared to USD 3,314 million surplus observed in the same month of 2019, bringing the 12-month rolling deficit to USD 23,203 million. ( August data).
There are two highlights here. It is significant that the release is in US Dollars and not Turkish Lira. But we also note that Turkey has gone from surplus to deficit about which we get more detail here.
This development is mainly driven by the net outflow of USD 5,347 million in the good deficit increasing by USD 3,948 million, as well as the net inflow of USD 1,179 million in services item decreasing by USD 4,602 million compared to the same month of the previous year.
One factor at play in the services sector weakness is tourism. If we look at the year so far we see this is confirmed by a surplus of US $4.15 billion as opposed to one of US $19.17 billion in the same period in 2019. Another way of looking at this is that 3,225,033 visitors are recorded as opposed to 13,349,256 last year.
The problem here is also what is called the reverse J Curve effect where imports have become more expensive but it takes time for volumes to shift as well as it taking time for more orders to come in for the relatively cheaper exports. At the moment that is exacerbated by the pandemic as for example if we stay with tourism international travel has fallen and with further restrictions possible it may not matter how cheap you are.
Staying with theoretical economics we should be seeing the J Curve effect from the 2018 devaluation but right now as we have noted with tourism practicalities are trumping theory.
Foreign Debt
We get some context here if we note this from Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, Turkey paid a premium as it sold $2.5 billion of debt to international investors on Tuesday, it’s first foray into global markets since February. The bonds priced at 6.4%, compared with 4.25% for similar-maturity notes issued in February.
We note the fact that we have another trend reversal here as most countries have seen lower debt costs whereas Turkey is paying more. The theme of borrowing in US Dollars is a Turkish theme though and in terms of the money raised each one has so far been a success as in it would have been more expensive later. The catch is when we get to interest payments and repayments which have got ever more expensive in Turkish Lira. So if your income is in US Dollars or other overseas currencies you are okay but if it is in Lira you are in trouble.
According to the TCMB here is what is coming up from its July data.
Short-term external debt stock on a remaining maturity basis, calculated based on the external debt maturing within 1 year or less regarding of the original maturity, recorded USD 176.5 billion, of which USD 15.9 billion belongs to the resident banks and private sectors to the banks’ branches and affiliates abroad. From the borrowers side, public sector accounted for 23.9 percent, Central Bank accounted for 11.4 percent and private sector accounted 64.7 percent in total stock.
August saw an outflow from the TCMB as well.
Official reserves recorded net outflow of USD 7,602 million.
They started the year at US $81.2 billion and are now US $41.4 billion.
Comment
So far we have noted a financial sector which is in distress with rising interest-rates a falling currency and overseas borrowing in a toxic mix. Let us now switch to the real economy where these will impact via general inflation highlighted by foreign goods and services being much more expensive. So living-standards will be lower. The normal mechanisms where a currency depreciation can help an economy are in many cases being blocked by the Covid-19 pandemic. Only on Friday we observed that the UK has been importing less which is pretty much a 2020 generic. This is added to be the fact that a Turkish economic strength ( tourism) has had an especially rough 2020.
There are other issues here as the continual foreign currency depreciation has led to a surge in demand for safe assets.
A significant part of the deterioration in the current account balance is due to gold imports. This year, gold imports will exceed $ 20 billion. ( Hakan Kara)
Gold of course exacerbates the US Dollar issue as it becomes increasingly important in Turkey. Actually the central bank has joined the game as its Gold reserves have risen by some US $17 billion so far this year and whilst some of that is a higher price it must also have bought some more.
Will more interest-rate increases help? I am not so sure as they are usually much smaller than the expected fall in the currency and they will crunch the economy even further. It would help of course if Turkey was not either actually in a war or acting belligerently on pretty much every border it has. Putting it another way government’s in economic trouble often look for foreign scapegoats.
Podcast


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Jason Burack: New Scheme – US Banks Go Crazy Buying Mortgage Bonds To Front Run The Fed

Since March the Fed has increased its buying of mortgaged backed securities ( MBS ) to $ 40 billion per @ @ @ @ @ hedged funds and large banks ) have responded by creating more and front running the @ @ @ @ @ this new scheme .
The Fed has purchased $ 610.943 billion in MBS since March @ @ @ @ @ link below .
Track the Fed ’ s official balance sheet here : fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL Jason @ @ @ @ @ entrepreneur , financial historian , Austrian School economist , and contrarian .
Jason co-founded the @ @ @ @ @ St for Main St , LLC , to try to help the people of Main @ @ @ @ @ knowledge , skills , research methods , and investing expertise of Wall Street .
You @ @ @ @ @ s work at his blog website at www.jasonburack.com .

Wall St. For Main St., Released on 10/11/20
Since March the Fed has increased its buying of mortgaged backed securities (MBS) to $40 billion per month and Wall Street (hedged funds and large banks) have responded by creating more and front running the Fed for easy profits on this new scheme.
‘Treasuries on steroids’: U.S. banks’ mortgage bond trading bonanza www.reuters.com/article/us-us…
Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity www.theinstitutionalriskanaly…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Fed has purchased $610.943 billion in MBS since March 4, 2020. See link below.
St. Louis Fed website: Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) on Fed Balance Sheet: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WS…
Track the Fed’s official balance sheet here: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Jason Burack is an investor, entrepreneur, financial historian, Austrian School economist, and contrarian. Jason co-founded the startup financial education company Wall St for Main St, LLC, to try to help the people of Main Street by teaching them the knowledge, skills, research methods, and investing expertise of Wall Street. You can also find Jason’s work at his blog website at www.jasonburack.com.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-13--Election is in 3 weeks and he still doesn’t know what office he is running for.

Election is in 3 weeks and he still doesn ’ t know what office he is running for .
t.co/7QfPIs1cKm

Election is in 3 weeks and he still doesn’t know what office he is running for. t.co/7QfPIs1cKm
— Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) October 13, 2020