investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--The Labor Market Recovery Is Still Alive?

The August labor report was revised higher from 1.371 million to 1.489 million jobs created , but private sector job creation was revised lower by 5,000 to 1.022 million .
That means total government jobs created was revised higher from 344,000 to 467,000 .
That ’ s a huge number .
Backing that out shows private sector job creation looks fine in September compared to August .
We follow the private sector because it tells us where we are in the business cycle .
Yes , government spending and taxation impacts the cycle , but government employment largely doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important role in the September report as well , but this time in the opposite manner .
There were 661,000 total jobs created in September which missed estimates for 894,000 , but that ’ s misleading because there were 216,000 job losses from the government as the chart above shows .
There were 877,000 private sector jobs added in September which only slightly missed estimates for 900,000 .
It wasn ’ t down much from August ’ s 1.022 million .
The government was only expected to lose 6,000 jobs because of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the census , but that wasn ’ t the main reason jobs fell in the public sector .
Instead , the losses came from local and state education which lost 291,000 and 49,000 jobs .
Outside of education , local governments added 96,000 jobs .
These losses in education are likely temporary which is good news .
They were impacted by the late start to the school year .
The chart below shows private sector job creation excluding education was the same as August .
There wasn ’ t a slowdown like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this story is the education sector didn ’ t actually lose any jobs on a non-seasonally adjusted basis .
It created jobs .
Since this was September when so many children go back to school , the seasonal adjustment expected education to have created more jobs .
However , as we said , schools opened later .
On the other hand , all the job gains from the leisure and hospitality industry didn ’ t actually occur either .
This industry created 318,000 seasonally adjusted jobs , but lost jobs on a non-seasonally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs when the summer ends .
It ’ s worth reviewing these aspects because seasonality was broken by COVID-19 .
This isn ’ t a normal year with normal seasonality .
Leisure and hospitality simply didn ’ t cut as many jobs as it usually does because there were less to cut .
As you can see from the chart below , the industry is still down 3.84 million jobs from February which is the most by far out of any industry .
The manufacturing sector created 66,000 jobs which doubled the consensus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is .
However , it was way below the 130,000 jobs estimated by ADP .
It seemed clear ADP was too optimistic .
This sector isn ’ t that labor intensive .
The huge mistake so many analysts/economists make is they look at the percentage of job losses that are permanent versus temporary .
That analysis makes no sense because obviously as people get their jobs back or the losses become permanent , the percentage that are permanent will increase .
Normally , most job losses in recessions are permanent and not many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were temporary in this recession that it would have caused a depression if few people got their jobs back quickly .
The correct way to look at these statistics is on a nominal basis .
The total number of people temporarily unemployed fell from 6.16 million to 4.637 million .
That decline got us 877,000 private sector jobs added .
Of course , some people who became employed came from permanent unemployment and a few came from out of the labor market .
However , there weren ’ t that many in those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rose from 2.023 million to 2.438 million and the labor force participation rate fell .
As you can see from the chart above , this recession is now worse than the 2001 one , but still not close to the 2007-2009 one which peaked at 4.014 million ( the chart uses permanent percentage of peak employment ) .
The key takeaway here is there are about 4 million easy to recover jobs left .
The time is running out to get most of those people employed again .
The problem is COVID-19 is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ independent restaurants to close .
The Worst Part Of The Report There are 10.743 million fewer jobs than there were in February before the recession .
Payrolls are 7.05 % off the high .
The unemployment rate fell from 8.4 % to 7.9 % .
We had the perfect combination to get the rate lower as people left the labor force and more people got jobs .
Obviously , we want the latter , but not the former .
The good news is the underemployment rate fell from 14.2 % to 12.8 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the decline was related to less people working part time for economic reasons or being marginally attached the labor force .
The worst part of the report was the decline in the labor force participation rate .
It fell from 61.7 % to 61.4 % .
This data point often takes 2 steps forward and 1 step back .
It ’ s back to where it was in July .
However , the prime age ( 25-54 ) labor force participation rate took an even bigger dive as it fell from 81.4 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate since May .
That ’ s because the 16-24 age group are were all of the jobs went .
Many of these are in the low paying jobs in the leisure and hostility industry .
They are important to get back because low paying jobs took the brunt of the hit in this recession .
Remember , there actually wasn ’ t any non-seasonally adjusted job creation in leisure and hospitality .
It ’ s just that young people weren ’ t fired at as high of a rate as usual .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s possible that because of delayed start to school and some people doing online school/not going , young people had more time to work .
Also , recognize that if COVID-19 gets worse , like it is in a few states in the Midwest , these jobs can go away again .
Private sector job creation barely fell in September compared to August .
The government swung from creating a ton of jobs to losing jobs largely because of the delayed start to school .
On the other hand , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which was the highest out of any industry on a seasonally adjusted basis , can go away if COVID-19 comes back .
Interesting , no jobs were actually created in leisure and hospitality and none were lost in education on a non-seasonally adjusted basis .
That ’ s the magic of seasonal adjustments .
September is a key month where people go back to school and summer activities end .
The unemployment and underemployment rates fell , but the labor force participation rate also fell especially among prime age workers .

by UPFINA
The August labor report was revised higher from 1.371 million to 1.489 million jobs created, but private sector job creation was revised lower by 5,000 to 1.022 million. That means total government jobs created was revised higher from 344,000 to 467,000. That’s a huge number. Backing that out shows private sector job creation looks fine in September compared to August. We follow the private sector because it tells us where we are in the business cycle. Yes, government spending and taxation impacts the cycle, but government employment largely doesn’t.
Leisure & hospitality and retail are still leading the rebound. Government jobs have declined, partially driven by the temp drop from declining Census employment but also from layoffs in state & local govt edu#jobsreport #jobsday 3/ pic.twitter.com/EQdaKZpbeg — Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) October 2, 2020
Government job creation played an important role in the September report as well, but this time in the opposite manner. There were 661,000 total jobs created in September which missed estimates for 894,000, but that’s misleading because there were 216,000 job losses from the government as the chart above shows. There were 877,000 private sector jobs added in September which only slightly missed estimates for 900,000. It wasn’t down much from August’s 1.022 million.
Education Caused The Losses
The government was only expected to lose 6,000 jobs because of the census. It actually lost 34,000 from the census, but that wasn’t the main reason jobs fell in the public sector. Instead, the losses came from local and state education which lost 291,000 and 49,000 jobs. Outside of education, local governments added 96,000 jobs. These losses in education are likely temporary which is good news. They were impacted by the late start to the school year. The chart below shows private sector job creation excluding education was the same as August. There wasn’t a slowdown like the headlines show.
On the one hand, this is literally true: The August-September slowdown is less stark when you look at the private sector, and disappears more or less entirely if you also strip out private-sector education pic.twitter.com/f0w17FtKGA — Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) October 2, 2020
The interesting aspect of this story is the education sector didn’t actually lose any jobs on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. It created jobs. Since this was September when so many children go back to school, the seasonal adjustment expected education to have created more jobs. However, as we said, schools opened later.
Leisure & Hospitality Gains Back Its Losses
On the other hand, all the job gains from the leisure and hospitality industry didn’t actually occur either. This industry created 318,000 seasonally adjusted jobs, but lost jobs on a non-seasonally adjusted basis because the industry usually loses jobs when the summer ends. It’s worth reviewing these aspects because seasonality was broken by COVID-19. This isn’t a normal year with normal seasonality. Leisure and hospitality simply didn’t cut as many jobs as it usually does because there were less to cut. As you can see from the chart below, the industry is still down 3.84 million jobs from February which is the most by far out of any industry.
The manufacturing sector created 66,000 jobs which doubled the consensus which shows how strong the cyclical upturn is. However, it was way below the 130,000 jobs estimated by ADP. It seemed clear ADP was too optimistic. This sector isn’t that labor intensive.
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Permanent Versus Temporary Job Losses
The huge mistake so many analysts/economists make is they look at the percentage of job losses that are permanent versus temporary. That analysis makes no sense because obviously as people get their jobs back or the losses become permanent, the percentage that are permanent will increase. Normally, most job losses in recessions are permanent and not many are temporary. However, so many were temporary in this recession that it would have caused a depression if few people got their jobs back quickly.
The correct way to look at these statistics is on a nominal basis. The total number of people temporarily unemployed fell from 6.16 million to 4.637 million. That decline got us 877,000 private sector jobs added. Of course, some people who became employed came from permanent unemployment and a few came from out of the labor market. However, there weren’t that many in those two categories as total permanent job losses rose from 2.023 million to 2.438 million and the labor force participation rate fell.
As you can see from the chart above, this recession is now worse than the 2001 one, but still not close to the 2007-2009 one which peaked at 4.014 million (the chart uses permanent percentage of peak employment). The key takeaway here is there are about 4 million easy to recover jobs left. The time is running out to get most of those people employed again. The problem is COVID-19 is still going, causing businesses such as independent restaurants to close.
The Worst Part Of The Report
There are 10.743 million fewer jobs than there were in February before the recession. Payrolls are 7.05% off the high. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%. We had the perfect combination to get the rate lower as people left the labor force and more people got jobs. Obviously, we want the latter, but not the former. The good news is the underemployment rate fell from 14.2% to 12.8%. That means about 0.9% of the decline was related to less people working part time for economic reasons or being marginally attached the labor force.
The worst part of the report was the decline in the labor force participation rate. It fell from 61.7% to 61.4%. This data point often takes 2 steps forward and 1 step back. It’s back to where it was in July. However, the prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate took an even bigger dive as it fell from 81.4% to 80.9% which is the lowest rate since May.
That’s because the 16-24 age group are were all of the jobs went. Many of these are in the low paying jobs in the leisure and hostility industry. They are important to get back because low paying jobs took the brunt of the hit in this recession. Remember, there actually wasn’t any non-seasonally adjusted job creation in leisure and hospitality. It’s just that young people weren’t fired at as high of a rate as usual. We’re just speculating, but it’s possible that because of delayed start to school and some people doing online school/not going, young people had more time to work. Also, recognize that if COVID-19 gets worse, like it is in a few states in the Midwest, these jobs can go away again.
Conclusion
Private sector job creation barely fell in September compared to August. The government swung from creating a ton of jobs to losing jobs largely because of the delayed start to school. On the other hand, the job creation in leisure and hospitality, which was the highest out of any industry on a seasonally adjusted basis, can go away if COVID-19 comes back. Interesting, no jobs were actually created in leisure and hospitality and none were lost in education on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. That’s the magic of seasonal adjustments. September is a key month where people go back to school and summer activities end. The unemployment and underemployment rates fell, but the labor force participation rate also fell especially among prime age workers.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--28 European Nations Have Negative 2Y Sovereign Yields (Covid Lockdowns Strike Again!)

Things are tough in Europe .
Slovakia has an even lower 2 year sovereign yield than Switzerland , the previous @ @ @ @ @ .
Even the UK has a negative 2 year sovereign yield !
Yes , that @ @ @ @ @ , Middle East and African ) nations have negative 2 year sovereign yields .
The @ @ @ @ @ ) rode to the rescue of the dissolving economic prospects of Europe .
The French @ @ @ @ @ … of bad EU , ECB policies .
And Covid .

by confoundedinterest17
Things are tough in Europe. Slovakia has an even lower 2 year sovereign yield than Switzerland, the previous winner of low sovereign yields.
Even the UK has a negative 2 year sovereign yield!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Yes, that is 28 EMEA (Europe, Middle East and African) nations have negative 2 year sovereign yields.
The European Central Bank (ECB) rode to the rescue of the dissolving economic prospects of Europe.
The French Foreign Legion to the rescue … of bad EU, ECB policies. And Covid.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--The pandemic has opened up a Pandora’s box about the future of work.

The pandemic has opened up a Pandora ’ s box about the future of work .
McKinsey , forecast that @ @ @ @ @ positions on the European continent alone by 2030 , the equivalent of about 20 % @ @ @ @ @ t.co/hJgNIpupQN pic.twitter.com/IGGD2HIwoX

The pandemic has opened up a Pandora’s box about the future of work. McKinsey, forecast that automation could displace 53 million positions on the European continent alone by 2030, the equivalent of about 20% of the current workforce. t.co/hJgNIpupQN pic.twitter.com/IGGD2HIwoX
— M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) October 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--The small business economy in San Francisco has been decimated… Rise of apartment tenants not paying

The small business economy in San Francisco has been decimated… Rise of apartment tenants not paying rent

Businesses that have a higher risk of bankruptcy have almost twice the outstanding liabilities now as at the peak of @ @ @ @ @ San Francisco Fed research t.co/1cQCNbZ4Jx pic.twitter.com/W0gVKAcigk

Businesses that have a higher risk of bankruptcy have almost twice the outstanding liabilities now as at the peak of the global financial crisis: San Francisco Fed research t.co/1cQCNbZ4Jx pic.twitter.com/W0gVKAcigk
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--All central banks are poised to catch up with Japan & Switzerland…. All the obvious hedges against s

All central banks are poised to catch up with Japan & Switzerland…. All the obvious hedges against stock-market volatility—Treasurys, gold, bitcoin and the VIX volatility index—stopped working in September

September hurt shareholders , not only because stocks fell but also because the things they ’ d bought to protect their portfolios also fell .
From the S & P 500 ’ s high on the 2nd of the month , stocks , Treasurys , gold , bitcoin and the VIX volatility index all dropped .
This total failure of hedging is unusual , but investors need to get used to the idea that Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio .
It wasn ’ t just the normal pattern of asset returns that broke down .
Within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tech upended many of the reliable ways to minimize losses .
High-quality stocks , companies with strong balance sheets and reliable profits , fell by more than the market .
Smaller companies beat bigger companies .
Within the S & P 500 , cheap or “ value ” stocks outperformed , although they still lost money .
But while Big Tech-dominated growth stocks lost out among large companies , among small companies growth beat value .
Sector performance followed no discernible pattern either .
And stocks that normally rise and fall faster or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market jargon as high or low beta , didn ’ t behave predictably .
Now the froth has been blown off the big disruptive growth stocks , we can hope that the normal market relationships will reassert themselves .
But the biggest hedge against losses , Treasurys , probably won ’ t be back as a useful tool for years , if ever .

September hurt shareholders, not only because stocks fell but also because the things they’d bought to protect their portfolios also fell. From the S&P 500’s high on the 2nd of the month, stocks, Treasurys, gold, bitcoin and the VIX volatility index all dropped.
This total failure of hedging is unusual, but investors need to get used to the idea that Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio.
It wasn’t just the normal pattern of asset returns that broke down. Within the stock market the correction in Big Tech upended many of the reliable ways to minimize losses. High-quality stocks, companies with strong balance sheets and reliable profits, fell by more than the market. Smaller companies beat bigger companies.
Within the S&P 500, cheap or “value” stocks outperformed, although they still lost money. But while Big Tech-dominated growth stocks lost out among large companies, among small companies growth beat value. Sector performance followed no discernible pattern either. And stocks that normally rise and fall faster or slower than the market, known in market jargon as high or low beta, didn’t behave predictably.
Now the froth has been blown off the big disruptive growth stocks, we can hope that the normal market relationships will reassert themselves. But the biggest hedge against losses, Treasurys, probably won’t be back as a useful tool for years, if ever.


Actual Second Wave

Back in early summer this year the US had a “ second wave ” which I think was probably just an extension of the first wave because of re-opening measures .
However , the real second wave is starting to show its teeth now in Europe .
Granted Europe has been open for a few months and life was far closer to normal than over here in the US yet they are now facing more cases than they did in the first initial wave ( particularly in France , Spain , and the UK ) .
This actual delay in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a different wave because it was not a direct result of government measures or policy changes .
Not to mention Paris and the UK are working on second lockdown procedures which should take place in the coming week or two .
Now as I ’ m sure most of you remember from the time cases went parabolic in Italy to when they reached the United States was about a 3 week delay and I would anticipate around the same thing this time .
Yes I know there are travel restrictions , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clearly things got through .
I also have some close personal DD from a friend of mine who said his hospital got slammed with cases for the first time in months within the past week .
The point is I ’ m about as big a bull as you ’ ll ever meet but can ’ t help ignore the fact that there is the possibility of a second wave in the United States , larger than the first one as seen in Europe , with almost the exact same time as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t think smart money in blindsided by what is going on Europe here , but you don ’ t have to get caught off guard if it plays out again too .
I don ’ t want to go into lockdown as much as the next guy but we all know that New York and California will not be afraid to pull the trigger if there is a surge in cases a few weeks from now which could lead to other states choosing to do the same .
Truthfully I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legitimate reason to hedge your bets with SPY puts or SQQQ calls because if there ’ s one thing the FED can ’ t out-print it ’ s the fear behind a second lockdown .
Tl ; dr : Europe is going into a second lockdown soon , actually a good time to buy SPY puts or SQQQ calls imo .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by RothStonk
Back in early summer this year the US had a “second wave” which I think was probably just an extension of the first wave because of re-opening measures.
However, the real second wave is starting to show its teeth now in Europe. Granted Europe has been open for a few months and life was far closer to normal than over here in the US yet they are now facing more cases than they did in the first initial wave (particularly in France, Spain, and the UK).
This actual delay in rising cases is what can be justified as a different wave because it was not a direct result of government measures or policy changes.
Not to mention Paris and the UK are working on second lockdown procedures which should take place in the coming week or two.
Now as I’m sure most of you remember from the time cases went parabolic in Italy to when they reached the United States was about a 3 week delay and I would anticipate around the same thing this time. Yes I know there are travel restrictions, but there were last time as well and clearly things got through.
I also have some close personal DD from a friend of mine who said his hospital got slammed with cases for the first time in months within the past week.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The point is I’m about as big a bull as you’ll ever meet but can’t help ignore the fact that there is the possibility of a second wave in the United States, larger than the first one as seen in Europe, with almost the exact same time as a very important political event.
Now I don’t think smart money in blindsided by what is going on Europe here, but you don’t have to get caught off guard if it plays out again too. I don’t want to go into lockdown as much as the next guy but we all know that New York and California will not be afraid to pull the trigger if there is a surge in cases a few weeks from now which could lead to other states choosing to do the same.
Truthfully I think this is the perfect time and actual legitimate reason to hedge your bets with SPY puts or SQQQ calls because if there’s one thing the FED can’t out-print it’s the fear behind a second lockdown.
Tl;dr: Europe is going into a second lockdown soon, actually a good time to buy SPY puts or SQQQ calls imo.
Forgot to add some sources:
1.www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/10/04/European-nations-experience-record-spikes-in-coronavirus-cases/6161601817752/
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Danielle DiMartino Booth: “The Fed is so intent on Congress passing stimulus legislation because it

Danielle DiMartino Booth: “The Fed is so intent on Congress passing stimulus legislation because it has effectively run out of product. The Fed wants more treasuries to buy. The QE is what has kept the stock market levitated but done nothing for the 45% that don’t own stocks”

`` The Fed is so intent on Congress passing stimulus legislation because it has effectively run out of product .
@ @ @ @ @ to buy .
The QE is what has kept the stock market levitated but done @ @ @ @ @ that do n't own stocks '' t.co/tTvNP5PSlO

"The Fed is so intent on Congress passing stimulus legislation because it has effectively run out of product. The Fed wants more treasuries to buy. The QE is what has kept the stock market levitated but done nothing for the 45% that don't own stocks"t.co/tTvNP5PSlO
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Costco begins selling gold bars. Never thought I’d see the day! A sign of the times as faith in pape

Costco begins selling gold bars. Never thought I’d see the day! A sign of the times as faith in paper currency continues to wane…

Costco begins selling gold bars .
Never thought I 'd see the day !
A sign of the times as @ @ @ @ @ to wane… t.co/17ubhHBZkg

Costco begins selling gold bars. Never thought I'd see the day! A sign of the times as faith in paper currency continues to wane… t.co/17ubhHBZkg
— Collin Kettell (@CollinKettell) October 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--During past 2 recessions, permanent job losses peaked when Conference board’s coincident index start

During past 2 recessions, permanent job losses peaked when Conference board’s coincident index started accelerating … this time, both are still increasing together

During past 2 recessions , permanent job losses peaked when @ Conferenceboard ’ s coincident index started accelerating … this @ @ @ @ @ increasing together pic.twitter.com/mBOXYDFf4A

During past 2 recessions, permanent job losses peaked when @Conferenceboard’s coincident index started accelerating … this time, both are still increasing together pic.twitter.com/mBOXYDFf4A
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--If you want to know why the Democrates are so desperate to get more stimulus to state and local Gove

If you want to know why the Democrates are so desperate to get more stimulus to state and local Governments before the election….here is why.

If you want to know why the # Democrates are so desperate to get more # stimulus to # state @ @ @ @ @ the election….here is why .
pic.twitter.com/c5Dg26ed9n

If you want to know why the #Democrates are so desperate to get more #stimulus to #state and #local Governments before the election….here is why. pic.twitter.com/c5Dg26ed9n
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) October 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--The credit markets are pointing to downside risks for stocks.

The credit markets are pointing to downside risks for stocks .

The credit markets are pointing to downside risks for stocks.
Source: @BankofAmerica pic.twitter.com/PASLHSe1I8
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) October 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--U.S. Has the Shortest Life-Expectancy of All Rich Nations. At #38, U.S. Ties With Lebanon, Beats Cub

U.S. Has the Shortest Life-Expectancy of All Rich Nations. At #38, U.S. Ties With Lebanon, Beats Cuba By 4 Months.

only country that ranks in the top 15 on “ Human Development ” in which the below 80.0 years .
On “ Human Development ” the U.S. ranks as being # 15 out of the 189 ranked countries , but is # 38 on the crucial life expectancy factor .
( almost two full years shorter than Denmark ’ s , which is the next-better-ranking country .
By contrast , Japan , which ranks as being # 19 on overall “ Human Development ” ( and so it isn ’ t even among the top 15 on that ) has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 84.5 years .
That ’ s 5.6 years higher life-span in Japan than in America .
What can explain such a huge discrepancy ?
According to the U.N. ’ s “ Human Development Report 2019 ” , which is the latest available global information ( published on 9 December 2019 ) , the United States is thecountry that ranks in the top 15 on “ Human Development ” in which the life expectancy at birth is now80.0 years .
On “ Human Development ” the U.S. ranks as being # 15 out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the crucial life expectancy factor .
( See page 300 , here , for the complete rankings . )
America ’ s life expectancy is found to be over 1 year shorter than the 80.8 years of the country that ’ s ranked # 14 on “ Human Development , ” which is Denmark .
That ’ s 80.8 years as the average age of death .
America ’ s number is 78.9 years —shorter than Denmark ’ s , which is the next-better-ranking country .
By contrast , Japan , which ranks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Human Development ” ( and so it isn ’ t even among the top 15 on that ) has the world ’ s highest life-expectancy : 84.5 years .
That ’ s 5.6 years higher life-span in Japan than in America .
What can explain such a huge discrepancy ?
itself is despised .
This extreme type of “ individualism ” is the American way .
It ’ s a contrast to not only Japan , but to all other industrialized countries .
And this contrast shortens Americans ’ life-expectancies , as compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the American diet is considered to be one of the major reasons why the U.S. has perhaps the shortest life-expectancy of the industrialized and wealthy nations .
However , America ’ s chaotic healthcare system is certainly another important reason for America ’ s notably short life-spans amongst industrialized countries .
For example , America is the only industrialized nation in which fewer than 100 % of citizens have health insurance , and America ’ s percentage is even below 90 % ; so , America really stands out , as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries , all of which have universal health insurance .
In fact , two-thirds of personal bankruptcies in America are because of medical costs , and that situation doesn ’ t exist in any other industrialized country , because health care in all those others is a right , instead of a privilege that ’ s available only to people who have the ability to pay for it .
In America , this problem isn ’ t merely among the 15 % or so of individuals who have no health insurance ; it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of the necessary care that isn ’ t covered in insurance policies , all of which are different from each other .
Healthcare is perhaps the biggest uncertainty in America .
Insurance companies maximize profits by charging the most money for the least coverage , and only few patients have actually read and understood ( far less , compared ) the fine print on their insurance contracts ( each of which has different wordings and coverages ) .
The underlying assumption is that everyone is entirely responsible for oneself .
The Government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there is no “ society ” : socialism is despised , no matter whether it ’ s of the democratic type — socialismis despised .
This extreme type of “ individualism ” is the American way .
It ’ s a contrast to not only Japan , but to .
And this contrast shortens Americans ’ life-expectancies , as compared to other industrialized countries .
So , those are two possible major explanations for America ’ s relatively low life-expectancies .
Here are the top 38 on life expectancy , in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , at 76.7 years .
( China has far lower per-capita GDP , $ 9,800 , than does its richest city , Hong Kong , which is $ 49,000 .
Japan ’ s is $ 39,290 . )
Russia was # 106 , at 72.4 years .
( Its per-capita GDP is $ 11,290 . )
The bottom 12 countries were all in sub-Saharan Africa , and were all below 60 years , and ranged from 52.8 to 59.4 years , in life expectancy .
The U.S. life expectancy has ranged between 78.0 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 2018 — that entire decade — flat , no progress the whole time .
Perhaps this plateau is the tipping-point , when the U.S. becomes , more clearly , an underdeveloped country .
Perhaps the best thing that could happen now for the American people — especially since the nation ’ s life expectancy might now be heading downward — would be for America to establish a natto industry of its own , and try to compete with Japan , at least on nutrition ( even if not on health care ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthcare function would also help enormously , by increasing the health-insurance rate up to the global norm , 100 % .
It would certainly improve America ’ s health care , while greatly lowering its cost . )
plunged precipitously down , from # 26 , to # 52 .
The U.S. had soared up to # 2 , right below Canada , and right above Japan .
( Canada had been # 5 in 1990 ; and the U.S. — as was mentioned — was # 19 , so it actually soared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” within just five years .
Russia shriveled , while America blossomed . )
By the time of improved its life expectancy since that time ( 1991 ) .
The first year of the U.N. ’ s Human Development Reports was 1990 .
In that year , Japan scored in the top spot , # 1 , on “ Human Development.
” Now it is # 19 .
In that year , U.S. scored # 19 on “ Human Development ” ( Japan ’ s current ranking ) .
In that year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 75 years , and Japan ’ s was 79 years .
China ’ s was 69 years .
Russia ’ s also was 69 years .
Russia ’ s “ Human Development ” ( which currently is ranked at # 49 ) was then ranked as “ USSR ” at # 26 .
But , by the time of 1995 , Russia ’ s “ Human Development ” rank hadto # 52 .
The U.S. had soared up to # 2 , right below Canada , and right above Japan .
( Canada @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the U.S. — as was mentioned — was # 19 , so it actually soared up 17 ranks in “ Human Development , ” within just five years .
Russia shriveled , while America blossomed . )
By the time of 2000 , Russia ’ s “ Human Development ” rank had sunk down to # 62 — the exact inverse of the Soviet Union ’ s 1990 rank of # 26 , and well below Russia ’ s current rank of # 49 .
So , today ’ s Russia still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Human Development ” rank than it did at the end of the Soviet Union ( # 26 ) , even though Russia has significantlyits life expectancy since that time ( 1991 ) .
Russia ’ s life expectancy had actually plateaued during all of the 1980s , at between 67 and 69 years .
That ’ s just like America ’ s has plateaued , during 2008-2018 , at between 78.0 and 78.9 years .
Russia ’ s life expectancy sank down to around age 65 by 1993 , and didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2006 , and it has kept on increasing , since then , to 72.4 years in 2018 .
So , Russia took approximately 16 years to recover its life-expectancy , to 67 , from the economic crash that had occurred with the end of the Soviet Union .
And it ’ s already become more than five years higher than that .
But America ’ s has now plateaued .
Who , then , will be America ’ s Mikhail Gorbachev ?
The Soviet Union ’ s highest plateau of life expectancy turned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for that country .
Might America ’ s highest plateau of life expectancy turn out to be a historic turning-point , for the U.S. , as well ?
Life expectancy is a lagging indicator from a lot of other factors , but it could turn out to be also a leading indicator of other , and extremely important , historical events .
Events such as , perhaps , the end of an empire .
Maybe a natto industry will start in America , as a trick to preserve the American empire , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans ’ life expectancies .
A country that ’ s controlled by its billionaires could behave in that way — doing a good thing for a bad reason .
It ’ s often the case that good things are done for bad reasons .
It doesn ’ t mean that the thing is bad , or that the doer is good .
On the other hand , maybe the people who control America ’ s economy and government won ’ t even care whether America ’ s life expectancy improves .
If they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what happened to the USSR , happen now to the USA ?
It could happen .
Looking at Donald Trump ’ s and Joe Biden ’ s Presidential-campaign debate on September 29th did not seem

Eric Zuesse, originally posted at Strategic Culture
only country that ranks in the top 15 on “Human Development” in which the below 80.0 years. On “Human Development” the U.S. ranks as being #15 out of the 189 ranked countries, but is #38 on the crucial life expectancy factor. (almost two full years shorter than Denmark’s, which is the next-better-ranking country. By contrast, Japan, which ranks as being #19 on overall “Human Development” (and so it isn’t even among the top 15 on that) has the world’s highest life-expectancy: 84.5 years. That’s 5.6 years higher life-span in Japan than in America. What can explain such a huge discrepancy? According to the U.N.’s “Human Development Report 2019” , which is the latest available global information (published on 9 December 2019), the United States is thecountry that ranks in the top 15 on “Human Development” in which the life expectancy at birth is now80.0 years. On “Human Development” the U.S. ranks as being #15 out of the 189 ranked countries, but ison the crucial life expectancy factor. ( See page 300, here , for the complete rankings.) America’s life expectancy is found to be over 1 year shorter than the 80.8 years of the country that’s ranked #14 on “Human Development,” which is Denmark. That’s 80.8 years as the average age of death. America’s number is 78.9 years —shorter than Denmark’s, which is the next-better-ranking country. By contrast, Japan, which ranks as being #19 on overall “Human Development” (and so it isn’t even among the top 15 on that) has the world’s highest life-expectancy: 84.5 years. That’s 5.6 years higher life-span in Japan than in America. What can explain such a huge discrepancy?
So, those are two possible major explanations for America’s relatively low life-expectancies.
Here are the top 38 on life expectancy, in this U.S.-UK-controlled ranking:
Countries and regions by life expectancy at birth in 2018 (2019 report)[7][8][9]
China was #59, at 76.7 years. (China has far lower per-capita GDP, $9,800, than does its richest city, Hong Kong, which is $49,000. Japan’s is $39,290.)
Russia was #106, at 72.4 years. (Its per-capita GDP is $11,290.)
The global average was 72.6 years
The bottom 12 countries were all in sub-Saharan Africa, and were all below 60 years, and ranged from 52.8 to 59.4 years, in life expectancy.
Rwanda ’s was likewise 50 years in 2001, but had been only 22 in 1993, then 28 in 1994 which was the year of the genocide, and rose steadily thereafter, to now being the second-highest longevity in Black Africa: 68.7.
Russia ’s life-expectancy in 2001 was 65.
China ’s in 2001 was 72.
The biggest improvements have occurred in Botswana and Rwanda; and, since Rwanda was below 30 years throughout 1991-1994, its ascent from that hell has been the world’s most remarkable, tripling its life-expectancy between 1993 and 2018 — just 25 years. (Rwanda also happens to be the world’s least-corrupt nation .) This shows what can be done — what can be achieved. It’s not impossible.
The U.S. life expectancy has ranged between 78.0 and 78.84 ever since 2008, through to 2018 — that entire decade — flat, no progress the whole time. Perhaps this plateau is the tipping-point, when the U.S. becomes, more clearly, an underdeveloped country. Perhaps the best thing that could happen now for the American people — especially since the nation’s life expectancy might now be heading downward — would be for America to establish a natto industry of its own, and try to compete with Japan, at least on nutrition (even if not on health care). (Of course, socializing the healthcare function would also help enormously, by increasing the health-insurance rate up to the global norm, 100%. It would certainly improve America’s health care, while greatly lowering its cost .)
plunged precipitously down, from #26, to #52. The U.S. had soared up to #2, right below Canada, and right above Japan. (Canada had been #5 in 1990; and the U.S. — as was mentioned — was #19, so it actually soared up 17 ranks in “Human Development,” within just five years. Russia shriveled, while America blossomed.) By the time of improved its life expectancy since that time (1991). The first year of the U.N.’s Human Development Reports was 1990 . In that year, Japan scored in the top spot, #1, on “Human Development.” Now it is #19. In that year, U.S. scored #19 on “Human Development” (Japan’s current ranking). In that year, America’s life expectancy was 75 years, and Japan ’s was 79 years. China’s was 69 years. Russia’s also was 69 years. Russia’s “Human Development” (which currently is ranked at #49) was then ranked as “USSR” at #26. But, by the time of 1995 , Russia’s “Human Development” rank hadto #52. The U.S. had soared up to #2, right below Canada, and right above Japan. (Canada had been #5 in 1990; and the U.S. — as was mentioned — was #19, so it actually soared up 17 ranks in “Human Development,” within just five years. Russia shriveled, while America blossomed.) By the time of 2000 , Russia’s “Human Development” rank had sunk down to #62 — the exact inverse of the Soviet Union’s 1990 rank of #26, and well below Russia’s current rank of #49. So, today’s Russia still has a lower (higher-numbered) “Human Development” rank than it did at the end of the Soviet Union (#26), even though Russia has significantlyits life expectancy since that time (1991).
Russia’s life expectancy had actually plateaued during all of the 1980s, at between 67 and 69 years. That’s just like America’s has plateaued, during 2008-2018, at between 78.0 and 78.9 years. Russia’s life expectancy sank down to around age 65 by 1993, and didn’t restore to becoming age 67 again until 2006, and it has kept on increasing, since then, to 72.4 years in 2018. So, Russia took approximately 16 years to recover its life-expectancy, to 67, from the economic crash that had occurred with the end of the Soviet Union. And it’s already become more than five years higher than that. But America’s has now plateaued. Who, then, will be America’s Mikhail Gorbachev? The Soviet Union’s highest plateau of life expectancy turned out to have been a historic turning-point, for that country. Might America’s highest plateau of life expectancy turn out to be a historic turning-point, for the U.S., as well? Life expectancy is a lagging indicator from a lot of other factors, but it could turn out to be also a leading indicator of other, and extremely important, historical events. Events such as, perhaps, the end of an empire. Maybe a natto industry will start in America, as a trick to preserve the American empire, instead of as a means to increase Americans’ life expectancies. A country that’s controlled by its billionaires could behave in that way — doing a good thing for a bad reason. It’s often the case that good things are done for bad reasons. It doesn’t mean that the thing is bad, or that the doer is good. On the other hand, maybe the people who control America’s economy and government won’t even care whether America’s life expectancy improves. If they won’t care, then will what happened to the USSR, happen now to the USA? It could happen. Looking at Donald Trump’s and Joe Biden’s Presidential-campaign debate on September 29th did not seem


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--The Federal Reserve & Government Are Enabling Corporate Theft & Destruction of Small Business?

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St The Fed doesn ’ t have to expand its balance sheet @ @ @ @ @ They can do so through issuing PR statements or jaw boning them like that what @ @ @ @ @ March .

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St
The Fed doesn’t have to expand its balance sheet to manipulate “markets.” They can do so through issuing PR statements or jaw boning them like that what happened back in February and March.
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FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Keep the Faith: October Can Still Be Strong for Stocks

For the past several months , I ’ ve been watching “ Resurrection : Ertugrul ” on Netflix .
It ’ s a Turkish television series that first aired in 2014 .
Set in the 13th century , the series centers around the titular Ertugrul , the father of Osman , who founded the Ottoman Empire .
Some viewers have called the show the Turkish “ Game of Thrones , ” and for good reason .
It ’ s full of adventure and excitement as well as intrigue and corruption .
It ’ s also controversial within the Arab world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so many problems to this day .
A number of Arab countries have actually banned it because they believe Turkey ’ s president Recep Erdogan may see himself as a modern day Ertugrul , out to create a new Ottoman Empire .
In the show , members of the Byzantines , Mongols and Templars are all pressuring their leaders to fight one another , which is reminiscent of the fighting we still see to this day between the Sunnis and Shias .
It also reminds me of America ’ s political landscape right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to “ divide and conquer ” by weakening the fiber that holds us together .
China steals U.S. technology while Russia continues to try to undermine our elections .
( More on that later . )
Many people believe disinformation is worse now than it ’ s ever been .
It ’ s kind of like how Hong Kong protestors were sent to Oslo , Norway last year to be trained to mobilize activists , keep ranks , deal with police and more .
The reason I ’ m sharing this with you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting distracted by the feuding political parties within the U.S. A lot of the infighting is being fueled by outside actors , who thrive on the chaos and the division .
Russia ’ s Putin and China ’ s Xi Jinping are delighted that we ’ re so divided right now .
In any case , I ’ m about 90 percent of the way through “ Ertugrul.
” It ’ s not short—there are about 450 episodes—but I highly recommend it to fans of world history who are looking for something different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it , I ’ d love to know what you think !
Drop me an email at info @ usfunds.com .
They don ’ t call it the “ jinx month ” for nothing .
October has historically been the most volatile month for stocks , and so far this month is shaping up to be just as choppy .
For one , we ’ re less than 30 days away from the general U.S. election .
In “ normal ” times this has been enough to roil markets , but this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
Not only has President Donald Trump questioned the integrity of voting by mail , but Friday we learned that he and the First Lady tested positive for COVID-19 .
As I write this Monday morning , Trump remains in the hospital .
In a note to clients , Evercore ISI ’ s Sarah Bianchi writes that Trump ’ s diagnosis actually increases the odds that a stimulus deal can be reached between the White House and Congress “ as it refocuses the conversation on the virus and gives [ House Speaker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less about the election implications of passing a bill.
” This would be positive especially for domestic airlines , which may begin furloughing workers as aid has run out .
Analysts at Wolfe Research seemed to agree with this assessment and added that they believe this development could help the Democrats ’ chances of winning the White House and Congress next month since it may “ make many voters question [ Trump ’ s ] ability to handle the virus effectively.
” I wish the president and his wife a full and speedy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russian Hackers and Brexit Jitters Then there ’ s the persistent cyber-attacks the U.S. receives from adversarial nation-states .
Last month , Microsoft revealed that Russian hackers are once again trying to undermine the U.S. election .
As many as 200 organizations tied to the election have been infiltrated , according to Microsoft .
Last week the tech giant went further , releasing a new report that shows that Russia is the number one source of cyber threats , representing a little over half of all attacks worldwide .
The country is followed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The U.S. is hit the hardest , but other countries get targeted as well , including the United Kingdom , Canada , South Korea and Saudi Arabia .
Microsoft is in a unique position to report on this since it has billions of customers across the globe , allowing it to “ aggregate security data from a broad and diverse spectrum of companies , organizations and consumers.
” And speaking of the U.K. , Brexit is back in the news .
The transition period ends on December 31 , and yet a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EU ) has still not emerged .
The 27-member bloc is now taking legal action against the U.K. for supposedly breaching the withdrawal agreement both sides signed last year .
Meanwhile , U.S. lenders are moving an estimated $ 1.5 trillion in assets from the U.K. to continental Europe ahead of the year-end deadline .
“ London ’ s standing as the one-stop shop for American banks doing business in Europe is slipping , ” writes the Wall Street Journal .
Gold Back Above $ 1,900 .
What Could Send It Higher ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ constructive for the price of gold .
The metal closed above $ 1,900 an ounce last Thursday as the U.S. dollar lost some ground for the fourth straight day , and there could be further upside potential as we head closer to the election .
Gold has had an incredible run .
It rose for the eighth straight quarter at the end of September , increasing around 6 percent .
This marks the longest such streak for gold since the bull run nearly 10 years ago , when it gained for 12 straight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2011 .
Gold was positive for the quarter , but it fell more than 4 percent during September , its worst month since November 2016 and worst September since 2014 .
As many of you may know , September used to be among the strongest months for gold , due mainly to seasonal buying in India , but lately the month has failed to deliver .
You have to go back to 2016 , in fact , to find the last time gold was positive in September .
So what could propel the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the drivers are in place—negative real rates , unprecedented money-printing , geopolitical uncertainty .
As I see it , two big factors are missing .
One , central banks have been limiting their purchases this year , but Citigroup is projecting this won ’ t be for long .
Banks bought some 375 metric tons this year , down significantly from the previous two years .
However , Citi sees this amount going up to about 450 tons in 2021 .
Number two is inflation .
The U.S. has been stuck under 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has prompted the Federal Reserve to keep rates near zero for some time longer .
But that ’ s only if you believe the consumer price index ( CPI ) is truly an accurate measure of inflation .
Some economists and investors have raised questions whether the CPI is “ fake news.
” That ’ s the topic of one of my most recent YouTube videos , which you can watch below .
The good news in all of this is that global factories appear to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25-month high of 52.3 in September , marking the third straight month of expansion .
The improvement was seen virtually across the board .
According to JPMorgan , 21 out of 29 economies showed improvement , with Brazil , India and Germany improving the most .
Mexico , Indonesia , Japan and Russia were among those that continued to contract in September .
As I ’ ve explained many times before , we use the PMI as a forward-looking economic indicator .
Because the PMI measures new orders and hiring activity , among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices of raw materials and energy to appreciate in the coming months as demand increases .

by Shaun Richards
For the past several months, I’ve been watching “Resurrection: Ertugrul” on Netflix.
It’s a Turkish television series that first aired in 2014. Set in the 13th century, the series centers around the titular Ertugrul, the father of Osman, who founded the Ottoman Empire.
Some viewers have called the show the Turkish “Game of Thrones,” and for good reason. It’s full of adventure and excitement as well as intrigue and corruption.
It’s also controversial within the Arab world for showing why the Middle East has so many problems to this day. A number of Arab countries have actually banned it because they believe Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan may see himself as a modern day Ertugrul, out to create a new Ottoman Empire.
In the show, members of the Byzantines, Mongols and Templars are all pressuring their leaders to fight one another, which is reminiscent of the fighting we still see to this day between the Sunnis and Shias.
It also reminds me of America’s political landscape right now. Outside influences are actively trying to “divide and conquer” by weakening the fiber that holds us together. China steals U.S. technology while Russia continues to try to undermine our elections. (More on that later.) Many people believe disinformation is worse now than it’s ever been.
It’s kind of like how Hong Kong protestors were sent to Oslo, Norway last year to be trained to mobilize activists, keep ranks, deal with police and more.
The reason I’m sharing this with you is that investors should try to avoid getting distracted by the feuding political parties within the U.S. A lot of the infighting is being fueled by outside actors, who thrive on the chaos and the division. Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are delighted that we’re so divided right now.
In any case, I’m about 90 percent of the way through “Ertugrul.” It’s not short—there are about 450 episodes—but I highly recommend it to fans of world history who are looking for something different. If you’ve already watched it, I’d love to know what you think! Drop me an email at info@usfunds.com.
Will October “Jinx” Investors?
They don’t call it the “jinx month” for nothing.
October has historically been the most volatile month for stocks, and so far this month is shaping up to be just as choppy.
For one, we’re less than 30 days away from the general U.S. election. In “normal” times this has been enough to roil markets, but this year the uncertainty is being compounded by the pandemic. Not only has President Donald Trump questioned the integrity of voting by mail, but Friday we learned that he and the First Lady tested positive for COVID-19. As I write this Monday morning, Trump remains in the hospital.
In a note to clients, Evercore ISI’s Sarah Bianchi writes that Trump’s diagnosis actually increases the odds that a stimulus deal can be reached between the White House and Congress “as it refocuses the conversation on the virus and gives [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi more leeway to worry less about the election implications of passing a bill.” This would be positive especially for domestic airlines, which may begin furloughing workers as aid has run out.
Analysts at Wolfe Research seemed to agree with this assessment and added that they believe this development could help the Democrats’ chances of winning the White House and Congress next month since it may “make many voters question [Trump’s] ability to handle the virus effectively.”
I wish the president and his wife a full and speedy recovery.
2016 All Over Again: Russian Hackers and Brexit Jitters
Then there’s the persistent cyber-attacks the U.S. receives from adversarial nation-states. Last month, Microsoft revealed that Russian hackers are once again trying to undermine the U.S. election. As many as 200 organizations tied to the election have been infiltrated, according to Microsoft.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Last week the tech giant went further, releasing a new report that shows that Russia is the number one source of cyber threats, representing a little over half of all attacks worldwide. The country is followed by Iran, China and North Korea. The U.S. is hit the hardest, but other countries get targeted as well, including the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Microsoft is in a unique position to report on this since it has billions of customers across the globe, allowing it to “aggregate security data from a broad and diverse spectrum of companies, organizations and consumers.”
click to enlarge
And speaking of the U.K., Brexit is back in the news. The transition period ends on December 31, and yet a trade deal with the European Union (EU) has still not emerged. The 27-member bloc is now taking legal action against the U.K. for supposedly breaching the withdrawal agreement both sides signed last year.
Meanwhile, U.S. lenders are moving an estimated $1.5 trillion in assets from the U.K. to continental Europe ahead of the year-end deadline. “London’s standing as the one-stop shop for American banks doing business in Europe is slipping,” writes the Wall Street Journal.
Gold Back Above $1,900. What Could Send It Higher?
All of these risk factors could be constructive for the price of gold. The metal closed above $1,900 an ounce last Thursday as the U.S. dollar lost some ground for the fourth straight day, and there could be further upside potential as we head closer to the election.
Gold has had an incredible run. It rose for the eighth straight quarter at the end of September, increasing around 6 percent. This marks the longest such streak for gold since the bull run nearly 10 years ago, when it gained for 12 straight quarters between the end of 2008 to 2011.
click to enlarge
Gold was positive for the quarter, but it fell more than 4 percent during September, its worst month since November 2016 and worst September since 2014. As many of you may know, September used to be among the strongest months for gold, due mainly to seasonal buying in India, but lately the month has failed to deliver. You have to go back to 2016, in fact, to find the last time gold was positive in September.
So what could propel the price of gold higher? Most of the drivers are in place—negative real rates, unprecedented money-printing, geopolitical uncertainty.
As I see it, two big factors are missing. One, central banks have been limiting their purchases this year, but Citigroup is projecting this won’t be for long. Banks bought some 375 metric tons this year, down significantly from the previous two years. However, Citi sees this amount going up to about 450 tons in 2021.
click to enlarge
Number two is inflation. The U.S. has been stuck under 2 percent inflation for years now, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to keep rates near zero for some time longer.
But that’s only if you believe the consumer price index (CPI) is truly an accurate measure of inflation. Some economists and investors have raised questions whether the CPI is “fake news.” That’s the topic of one of my most recent YouTube videos, which you can watch below.
Global Factories Are Back in Business
The good news in all of this is that global factories appear to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to a 25-month high of 52.3 in September, marking the third straight month of expansion.
click to enlarge
The improvement was seen virtually across the board. According to JPMorgan, 21 out of 29 economies showed improvement, with Brazil, India and Germany improving the most. Mexico, Indonesia, Japan and Russia were among those that continued to contract in September.
As I’ve explained many times before, we use the PMI as a forward-looking economic indicator. Because the PMI measures new orders and hiring activity, among other things, we can reasonably expect prices of raw materials and energy to appreciate in the coming months as demand increases.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Mortgage 30 Day Delinquencies Tick Up Again As Key States Remain On Covid Lockdown (GDP Forecast Is

Mortgage 30 Day Delinquencies Tick Up Again As Key States Remain On Covid Lockdown (GDP Forecast Is Now 34.602%)

Just when we thought the US mortgage market had recovered from the financial crisis , then along came Covid and The Federal Reserve helping to push mortgage rates to near all-time lows .
According to Black Knight , the share of borrowers with only one missed payment was already below pre-pandemic levels in July and in August that number fell again .
The number of loans in the 30- to 60-days past due bucket dropped by other 9.0 percent .
At the same time , serious delinquencies , loans 90 or more days past due , increased by 5 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past five months .
The transition from 30 days delinquent to 60 days late was falling as expected but showed a disturbing uptick in August .
Compared to natural disasters such as hurricanes , this time it is different PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC SHUTDOWNS .
Most mortgages in forbearance remain in active forebearence and had the term extended DUE TO GOVERNMENT LOCKDOWNS OF SEVERAL KEY ECONOMIES .
But with US GDP growth expected to recover at a rate of 34.602 % , look for forbearances and 30 day delinquencies to fade .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ California Governor Gavin Newsome insists on keeping California on eternal lockdown in order to prevent the spread of Covid .
Why does Gavin Newsome remind me of Beloche performing the ceremony opening the ark of the covenants in Raiders of the Lost Ark ?

by confoundedinterest17
Just when we thought the US mortgage market had recovered from the financial crisis, then along came Covid and The Federal Reserve helping to push mortgage rates to near all-time lows.
According to Black Knight, the share of borrowers with only one missed payment was already below pre-pandemic levels in July and in August that number fell again. The number of loans in the 30- to 60-days past due bucket dropped by other 9.0 percent. At the same time, serious delinquencies, loans 90 or more days past due, increased by 5 percent and have risen in each of the past five months.
The transition from 30 days delinquent to 60 days late was falling as expected but showed a disturbing uptick in August.
Compared to natural disasters such as hurricanes, this time it is different PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC SHUTDOWNS.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Most mortgages in forbearance remain in active forebearence and had the term extended DUE TO GOVERNMENT LOCKDOWNS OF SEVERAL KEY ECONOMIES.
But with US GDP growth expected to recover at a rate of 34.602%, look for forbearances and 30 day delinquencies to fade.
Unless Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s nephew California Governor Gavin Newsome insists on keeping California on eternal lockdown in order to prevent the spread of Covid.
Why does Gavin Newsome remind me of Beloche performing the ceremony opening the ark of the covenants in Raiders of the Lost Ark?


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--The UK will continue to see quite a surge in the national debt

Today I thought it was time to take stock of the UK economic situation .
This is because we find ourselves experiencing a sort of second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic .
Those numbers are something of a shambles and as a TalkTalk customer it does seem to have similarities to when Baroness Harding was in charge of it .
Fortunately we are not experiencing a similar rise in deaths ( 33 ) as we try to allow for the lags in this process .
But however you look at the numbers economic restrictions look set to remain and maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take place in Paris .
We have already seen more restrictions for Madrid .
So the overall picture is not a good one for those who have asserted the likelihood of a V-Shaped economic recovery.Some area yes but others not and on a purely personal level passing bars and pubs in South-West London trade looks thin .
All of this is also before we see the end of the furlough scheme at the end of the month .
This morning ’ s update showed an area which is still in trouble .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ play here .
The car industry had its issues pre the pandemic .
But added to it was the lockdown earlier this year followed by several U-Turns .
People were encouraged to drive to work as the previous official view of encouraging public transport changed .
But in London this was accompanied by the sprouting of cycle lanes in many places that looked rather bizarre to even a Boris Biker like me .
This was not helped by problems with a couple of bridges and now official policy is for people to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ongoing background as to what cars we should buy ?
The internal combustion engine is out of favour but there are plenty of issues with batteries made out of toxic elements .
The net effect of all the factors is this .
This was more optimistic this morning as Markit released the main PMI data .
The better news for the large services sector fed straight into the wider measure .
This continues a welcome trend and was much better than the Euro area which recorded 50.4 .
However there are contexts to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK economy contracted more in the second quarter so we would expect a stronger bounce back .
Also these numbers have proved unreliable so we should take them as a broad brush .
Also even with the furlough scheme the jobs situation looks weak .
This has been an extraordinary year for UK debt markets which began like this .
Looking back to March we see that some £97.6 billion was due to redemptions of existing bonds .
So we were planning to raise £58.5 billion of new debt .
Also you might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Savings and Investments were expected to raise £6 billion this financial year .
If we press the fast forward button we now see this .
So an just under an extra £229 billion and that is only until the end of next month .
As of the beginning of this month we have issued in total some £330.5 billion or more than double what we planned for the whole financial year .
I am including it because the numbers above have been reduced in net terms by its purchases .
So far it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That number does not strictly match the numbers above as it began in late March but it does give an idea of the flows involved here .
That will continue this week with the Bank of England buying another £4.4 billion of UK bonds or Gilts and the Debt Management Office issuing another £8.5 billion .
We see a situation where we have seen a welcome bounce in UK economic activity but it still has quite a distance to travel .
Sadly some areas look likely to be hit again .
There must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and more restrictions seem probable .
Thus the rate of recovery will slow and moving onto my next theme the size of the national debt and the fiscal deficit will grow .
As to its size there are different ways of measuring it but here is the Office for National Statistics version .
That will continue to grow pretty rapidly but there are a couple of reasons why we should not be immediately concerned .
The average yield at the end of June was 0.29 % so it is not costing much and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gilts was a bit over 18 years .
One way of measuring the surge in bond prices is to note that the market value then was some £2,659 billion so some have made large profits .
This does not get much publicity .
One area which has been affected is index-linked Gilts which if you allow for inflation were worth some £441.5 billion but had a market value of £805.2 billion .
Why ?
Well they do offer a yield that is much higher than elsewhere as we see another casualty of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the wrong price and could manage to fall in price if inflation rises .
Or their “ yield ” is -2.5 % .
Imagine being a pension fund manager and having to match an inflation liability with that !
It is a much larger issue than the debates over the Retail Price Index but strangely barely gets a flicker of a mention .

by Shaun Richards
Today I thought it was time to take stock of the UK economic situation. This is because we find ourselves experiencing a sort of second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Official figures show the UK has recorded a further 22,961 cases of COVID-19 after Public Health England announced it has identified 15,841 cases that were not included in previous cases between 25 September and 2 October due to a technical issue. ( Sky News )
Those numbers are something of a shambles and as a TalkTalk customer it does seem to have similarities to when Baroness Harding was in charge of it. Fortunately we are not experiencing a similar rise in deaths ( 33) as we try to allow for the lags in this process. But however you look at the numbers economic restrictions look set to remain and maybe increased as we note what is about to take place in Paris.
Paris and neighbouring suburbs have been placed on maximum coronavirus alert on Monday, the prime minister’s office announced on Sunday, with the city’s iconic bars closing, as alarming Covid-19 infection numbers appeared to leave the French government little choice. Mayor Anne Hidalgo is to outline further specific measures Monday morning. ( France24)
We have already seen more restrictions for Madrid. So the overall picture is not a good one for those who have asserted the likelihood of a V-Shaped economic recovery.Some area yes but others not and on a purely personal level passing bars and pubs in South-West London trade looks thin. All of this is also before we see the end of the furlough scheme at the end of the month.
Car Registrations
This morning’s update showed an area which is still in trouble.
The UK new car market declined -4.4% in September, according to figures published today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The sector recorded 328,041 new registrations in the month – the weakest September since the introduction of the dual number plate system in 1999 and some -15.8% lower than the 10-year average of around 390,000 units for the month.
There are quite a few factors at play here. The car industry had its issues pre the pandemic. But added to it was the lockdown earlier this year followed by several U-Turns. People were encouraged to drive to work as the previous official view of encouraging public transport changed. But in London this was accompanied by the sprouting of cycle lanes in many places that looked rather bizarre to even a Boris Biker like me. This was not helped by problems with a couple of bridges and now official policy is for people to work from home again.
There is the ongoing background as to what cars we should buy? The internal combustion engine is out of favour but there are plenty of issues with batteries made out of toxic elements. The net effect of all the factors is this.
With little realistic prospect of recovering the 615,000 registrations lost so far in 2020, the sector now expects an overall -30.6% market decline by the end of the year, equivalent to some £21.2 billion2 in lost sales.
Business Surveys
This was more optimistic this morning as Markit released the main PMI data.
The UK service sector showed encouraging resilience in
September, with business activity continuing to grow solidly despite the government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme being withdrawn……….However, growth across the services sector was uneven with gains principally focussed on areas such as business-to-business services. Those sub-sectors more exposed to social contact such as Hotels, Restaurants & Catering reported a downturn in business during the month,
The better news for the large services sector fed straight into the wider measure.
The UK Composite Output Index….. recorded 56.5 to
signal a third month of growth.
This continues a welcome trend and was much better than the Euro area which recorded 50.4. However there are contexts to this which include the fact that the UK economy contracted more in the second quarter so we would expect a stronger bounce back. Also these numbers have proved unreliable so we should take them as a broad brush.
Also even with the furlough scheme the jobs situation looks weak.
Less positive, however, was on the jobs front, with private
sector employment continuing to fall at a steep rate.
September marked a seventh successive month of job
losses, with the greater decline again seen in services.
Cost considerations amid an uncertain near-term outlook
continued to weigh on the labour market.
National Debt
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This has been an extraordinary year for UK debt markets which began like this.
The Net Financing Requirement (NFR) for the DMO in 2020-21 is forecast to be £156.1 billion; this will be financed exclusively by gilt sales.
Looking back to March we see that some £97.6 billion was due to redemptions of existing bonds. So we were planning to raise £58.5 billion of new debt. Also you might like to note that back then National Savings and Investments were expected to raise £6 billion this financial year.
If we press the fast forward button we now see this.
The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) is today publishing a further revision to its 2020-21 financing remit covering the period to end-November 2020. In line with the
update on the government’s financing needs announced by HM Treasury today, the DMO is planning to raise a minimum of £385 billion during the period April to November 2020 (inclusive) through the issuance of conventional and index-linked gilts.
So an just under an extra £229 billion and that is only until the end of next month. As of the beginning of this month we have issued in total some £330.5 billion or more than double what we planned for the whole financial year.
Bank of England
I am including it because the numbers above have been reduced in net terms by its purchases. So far it has bought an extra £241 billion. That number does not strictly match the numbers above as it began in late March but it does give an idea of the flows involved here.
That will continue this week with the Bank of England buying another £4.4 billion of UK bonds or Gilts and the Debt Management Office issuing another £8.5 billion.
Comment
We see a situation where we have seen a welcome bounce in UK economic activity but it still has quite a distance to travel. Sadly some areas look likely to be hit again. There must be a subliminal influence on going out and more restrictions seem probable. Thus the rate of recovery will slow and moving onto my next theme the size of the national debt and the fiscal deficit will grow. As to its size there are different ways of measuring it but here is the Office for National Statistics version.
At the end of August 2020, there was £1,718.0 billion of central government gilts in circulation (including those held by the Bank of England (BoE) Asset Purchase Facility Fund).
That will continue to grow pretty rapidly but there are a couple of reasons why we should not be immediately concerned. The average yield at the end of June was 0.29% so it is not costing much and the average maturity if we include index-linked Gilts was a bit over 18 years.
One way of measuring the surge in bond prices is to note that the market value then was some £2,659 billion so some have made large profits. This does not get much publicity. One area which has been affected is index-linked Gilts which if you allow for inflation were worth some £441.5 billion but had a market value of £805.2 billion. Why? Well they do offer a yield that is much higher than elsewhere as we see another casualty of all the QE bond purchases as they are at the wrong price and could manage to fall in price if inflation rises. Or their “yield” is -2.5%.
Imagine being a pension fund manager and having to match an inflation liability with that! It is a much larger issue than the debates over the Retail Price Index but strangely barely gets a flicker of a mention.
Podcast


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Google has controlled the access to information

I ’ m astounded how much Google has ruined the internet .
Before google , we seemed to have access to hundreds of thousands of tiny small weird websites .
Now , when you google something , it ’ s the same dozen website that comes up .
More and more , I ’ ve realized I can ’ t really access much information , aside from just coming across MSM outlets ’ take on them .
Also , as I use VPNs a lot , the location-themed results are extremely annoying .
Why should it matter where I am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same everywhere .
Here are some things I ’ ve noticed , please add your own comments if you can think of anything .
Maybe we can get an eventual list of what we don ’ t have access to : 1 ) Torrents , Warez , etc .
Finding a link to a torrent site is sometimes much harder than it may appear .
Google piratebay and the actual site doesn ’ t come up as the first link .
Same for kickasstorrent .
What if I just google “ torrent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top ones come up ?
No .
2 ) Non-western allied news sites : Full disclosure , I ’ m from Iran , and it irritates me that if I search for Iran keywords , the results in the news section are ALL anti-Iran MSM .
Israel news sites pop up at a far higher frequency on the keyword “ iran ” in news.google.com than dozens of english domestic iranian news sites .
Why ?
So does , western funded media such as BBC or Radio Farda ( Iran focused news site funded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ site have purposely been removed , such as PressTV is blocked by Google from showing up on news.google.com .
Generally , good luck finding even ONE result in news.google.com that has an iranian media source ON IRAN SUBJECTS .
3 ) Non-mainstream stuff : I ’ ve never really been into QAnon and stuff , but was curious recently to see what the hell is this stuff the MSM keeps talking about .
So I google QAnon .
Wiki is first link ( wikipedia is by the way a whole other problem ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nytimes , rollingstones , bbc , dw , nbcnews .
ALL MSM .
This is page 1 .
So let me try page 2 , the graveyard of google searches .
New Yorker , theconversation , abcnews , indepandant.co.uk , washington post , washingtonpost , congress.gov , theintercept , financialtimes , wired .
2nd page ends .
Notice , still no actual site where qanon stuff is posted and ALL OF IT IS NEWS SITES ( aside from wiki and congress.gov ) .
I didn ’ t go to news.google.com .
usatoday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , amazon.com ( some book on qanon ) , motherjones , fb [ dot ] com ( how we are addressing.. ) , youtube ( QAnon : Are conspiracy theories becoming a deadly threat … ) , smh.com.au In duckduckgo , sandwiched between CNN and NY Times , I finally find one or two sites that posts their stuff .
4 ) Groups of the wrong kind : What if I want to read on various extremists hated filled truly bad groups , as informed by the elites of the world ?
Like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but was curious to see who the hell these Proud Boys are .
I generally like to read stuff from the group ’ s own views , rather than rephrased by someone else .
I ’ m not a child .
Notice the same gang of the same media .
Once again , I didn ’ t go to news.google.com .
I don ’ t really want BBC or Forbes or Gaurdian ’ s take on it .
Logically , I would expect THEIR OWN SITE OR PLATFORM TO BE THE FIRST RESULT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job of a search engine .
If I tell you I ’ m looking for dog shit , then show me dog shit , I don ’ t need you to tell me your opinion on why dog shit smells bad .
I searched 10 pages and couldn ’ t find a link to their main page .
Duckduckgo has it as the first result .
I ’ ve had the same problem in the past .
I remember when ISIS was taking over large pieces of land in Syria , they would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monthly , can ’ t remember ) .
To me , that was a unique and interesting look into the minds of such a group that was cutting people ’ s heads off on camera .
But it was such a difficult task finding it .
THE INTERNET IN 2020 ISN ’ T SUPPOSED TO BE HARDER TO RESEARCH KNOWLEDGE THAN 1995 We need to reclaim the internet .
For a while , it truly belong to the smaller guys .
Do not allow the dozen or so corporate media outlets feed you @ @

by madali0
I’m astounded how much Google has ruined the internet. Before google, we seemed to have access to hundreds of thousands of tiny small weird websites. Now, when you google something, it’s the same dozen website that comes up. More and more, I’ve realized I can’t really access much information, aside from just coming across MSM outlets’ take on them. Also, as I use VPNs a lot, the location-themed results are extremely annoying. Why should it matter where I am supposed to be, information should be the same everywhere.
Here are some things I’ve noticed, please add your own comments if you can think of anything. Maybe we can get an eventual list of what we don’t have access to:
1) Torrents, Warez, etc. Finding a link to a torrent site is sometimes much harder than it may appear. Google piratebay and the actual site doesn’t come up as the first link. Same for kickasstorrent. What if I just google “torrent sites”, shouldn’t the top ones come up? No.
2) Non-western allied news sites: Full disclosure, I’m from Iran, and it irritates me that if I search for Iran keywords, the results in the news section are ALL anti-Iran MSM. Israel news sites pop up at a far higher frequency on the keyword “iran” in news.google.com than dozens of english domestic iranian news sites. Why? So does, western funded media such as BBC or Radio Farda (Iran focused news site funded by America). Major Iranian news site have purposely been removed, such as PressTV is blocked by Google from showing up on news.google.com. Generally, good luck finding even ONE result in news.google.com that has an iranian media source ON IRAN SUBJECTS.
3) Non-mainstream stuff: I’ve never really been into QAnon and stuff, but was curious recently to see what the hell is this stuff the MSM keeps talking about. So I google QAnon. Wiki is first link (wikipedia is by the way a whole other problem), guardian, guardian, cbsnews, nytimes, rollingstones, bbc, dw, nbcnews. ALL MSM. This is page 1.
So let me try page 2, the graveyard of google searches.
New Yorker, theconversation, abcnews, indepandant.co.uk , washington post, washingtonpost, congress.gov, theintercept, financialtimes, wired. 2nd page ends. Notice, still no actual site where qanon stuff is posted and ALL OF IT IS NEWS SITES (aside from wiki and congress.gov). I didn’t go to news.google.com.
Page 3:
usatoday, apnews, wired, technologyrevew, theatlantic, amazon.com (some book on qanon), motherjones, fb[dot]com (how we are addressing..), youtube (QAnon: Are conspiracy theories becoming a deadly threat …), smh.com.au
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See, that’s three pages.
In duckduckgo, sandwiched between CNN and NY Times, I finally find one or two sites that posts their stuff.
4) Groups of the wrong kind: What if I want to read on various extremists hated filled truly bad groups, as informed by the elites of the world? Like, I’m not American, but was curious to see who the hell these Proud Boys are. I generally like to read stuff from the group’s own views, rather than rephrased by someone else. I’m not a child.
Page 1: Wiki, splcenter.org, cnn, the guardian, forbes, cbsnews, cnet, adl.org, bbc. End of page 1.
Notice the same gang of the same media. Once again, I didn’t go to news.google.com. I don’t really want BBC or Forbes or Gaurdian’s take on it. Logically, I would expect THEIR OWN SITE OR PLATFORM TO BE THE FIRST RESULT, because that’s the basic job of a search engine. If I tell you I’m looking for dog shit, then show me dog shit, I don’t need you to tell me your opinion on why dog shit smells bad.
I searched 10 pages and couldn’t find a link to their main page. Duckduckgo has it as the first result.
I’ve had the same problem in the past. I remember when ISIS was taking over large pieces of land in Syria, they would have an english magazine (weekly or monthly, can’t remember). To me, that was a unique and interesting look into the minds of such a group that was cutting people’s heads off on camera. But it was such a difficult task finding it.
THE INTERNET IN 2020 ISN’T SUPPOSED TO BE HARDER TO RESEARCH KNOWLEDGE THAN 1995
—
We need to reclaim the internet. For a while, it truly belong to the smaller guys. Do not allow the dozen or so corporate media outlets feed you information.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Reps. Tulsi Gabbard and Matt Gaetz Introduce Bipartisan Resolution Calling for Charges Against Edwar

Reps. Tulsi Gabbard and Matt Gaetz Introduce Bipartisan Resolution Calling for Charges Against Edward Snowden to be Dropped

Washington , DC—This week , Rep. Tulsi Gabbard ( HI-02 ) and Rep. Matt Gaetz ( FL-01 ) introduced H.Res.1162 , a resolution calling for the Federal government to drop all charges against Edward Snowden , a whistleblower who exposed illegal and unconstitutional acts of mass surveillance of Americans by the United States government .
“ We continue to see attacks on American civil liberties by aggressive surveillance policies within our own government , trading on the fears of the American people .
This occurred under both Democratic and Republican administrations , while a few brave whistleblowers came forward to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we faced .
Edward Snowden has been persecuted for bravely exposing massive illegal government surveillance of all Americans — a finding backed up by U.S. courts as recently as last month .
Meanwhile , former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper lied to Congress saying this program did not exist , and suffered no consequence whatsoever , ” said Rep. Tulsi Gabbard .
“ All charges against Edward Snowden should be dropped .
We need to protect whistleblowers , not the powerful elite.
” “ Edward Snowden has been unfairly villainized and persecuted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government surveillance .
This is unjust .
The Ninth Circuit ’ s recent ruling , holding that the NSA ’ s bulk collection program was unconstitutional , vindicates him .
Charges against Snowden should be dropped , ” said Rep. Matt Gaetz .
“ If anyone deserves to face punishment , it should be James Clapper , who lied under oath about the NSA ’ s data collection activities , and has never been charged .
”

Washington, DC—This week, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI-02) and Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL-01) introduced H.Res.1162, a resolution calling for the Federal government to drop all charges against Edward Snowden, a whistleblower who exposed illegal and unconstitutional acts of mass surveillance of Americans by the United States government.
“We continue to see attacks on American civil liberties by aggressive surveillance policies within our own government, trading on the fears of the American people. This occurred under both Democratic and Republican administrations, while a few brave whistleblowers came forward to lift the curtain on the Constitutional threats we faced. Edward Snowden has been persecuted for bravely exposing massive illegal government surveillance of all Americans — a finding backed up by U.S. courts as recently as last month. Meanwhile, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper lied to Congress saying this program did not exist, and suffered no consequence whatsoever,” said Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. “All charges against Edward Snowden should be dropped. We need to protect whistleblowers, not the powerful elite.”
“Edward Snowden has been unfairly villainized and persecuted for disclosing the true scope of illegal government surveillance. This is unjust. The Ninth Circuit’s recent ruling, holding that the NSA’s bulk collection program was unconstitutional, vindicates him. Charges against Snowden should be dropped,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz. “If anyone deserves to face punishment, it should be James Clapper, who lied under oath about the NSA’s data collection activities, and has never been charged.”
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gabbard.house.gov/news/press-releases/reps-tulsi-gabbard-and-matt-gaetz-introduce-bipartisan-resolution-calling


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--We Are Being Lied To! Here Is How…MUST WATCH!!

In this report , we examine this questions in addition to reviewing video clips of multiple doctors weighing in on @ @ @ @ @ Kary Mullis who invented PCR and won a Nobel Prize in Chemistry for doing so @ @ @ @ @ is understanding the test so important ?
Because it is the driving factor in the @ @ @ @ @ being driven by the corrupt media and then used by the government to justify the @ @ @ @ @ .
This is a must see report that may change the perception of you , @ @ @ @ @ know , regarding the crisis .

In this report, we examine this questions in addition to reviewing video clips of multiple doctors weighing in on the subject including the biochemist Kary Mullis who invented PCR and won a Nobel Prize in Chemistry for doing so has to say.
Why is understanding the test so important?
Because it is the driving factor in the fear campaign, that is being driven by the corrupt media and then used by the government to justify the restrictions imposed on our lives.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This is a must see report that may change the perception of you, or of someone you may know, regarding the crisis.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--BIDEN supporter screaming for Police help at Walter Reed!

“ He assaulted me and I want to file charges .
Now .
NOW !
” An anti-Trump protester demands @ @ @ @ @ the hospital # Trump # WalterReed # WalterReedHospital pic.twitter.com/h6alNSQy3K

“He assaulted me and I want to file charges. Now. NOW!” An anti-Trump protester demands police make arrests here outside the hospital #Trump #WalterReed #WalterReedHospital pic.twitter.com/h6alNSQy3K
— Brendan Gutenschwager (@BGOnTheScene) October 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--Ron Paul: Trump and Biden Squabble While America Burns

Ron Paul , Institute for Peace and Prosperity , Released on 10/5/20 President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden spent most of last week ’ s first Presidential debate trading insults and interrupting each other .
The result was a debate with very little discussion of actual issues or policies .
In one of the evening ’ s few substantive exchanges , President Trump rightly criticized Vice President Biden for saying he would listen to the “ scientists ” in determining whether to lock down the country .
President Trump also acknowledged that the lockdowns were a harmful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , President Trump once again pledged that Covid vaccines would soon be available .
This raises the specter of a repeat of the swine flu debacle where a vaccine rushed into production for political purposes caused more deaths than the swine flu itself .
President Trump also raised concerns about mandatory Covid vaccinations by suggesting the military would be in charge of vaccine distribution .
Vice President Biden vehemently denied he was a socialist , while championing increased spending , taxes , regulations , expanded Obamacare , and a modified “ Green New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a socialist , but if his economic plans were implemented it would take America further down the road to socialism — and serfdom .
President Trump also denounced socialism , while bragging about his own big government policies such as tariffs , massive spending increases , and plans to maintain the “ popular ” provisions of Obamacare .
One topic that did not come up was gun control .
This may have been because both candidates support infringements on the Second Amendment .
Joe Biden was chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assault weapons ban and the “ Brady Bill.
” President Trump has not only banned bump stocks by executive order , which President Obama refused to do because his Attorney General correctly determined that the President lacks the authority to do so , but has enthusiastically endorsed “ red flag ” laws .
These laws allow law enforcement to , as President Trump put it , “ take the guns first worry about due process later.
” The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the federal debt will exceed the gross domestic product @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GDP by 2050 !
This report was issued before this week ’ s revelation that the federal debt reached record levels of $ 27 billion .
This is the biggest threat to our national security , but it was unmentioned during the debate .
This is not surprising since few in the political or media elite understand the debt crisis well enough to give it the attention it deserves .
Although if Biden wins and Democrats seize control of the Senate , Republicans will likely remember they are supposed to be against big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that could have led to an interesting exchange was monetary policy .
Biden has called Trump ’ s tweets attacking the Fed as an assault on Fed ’ s independence , as if the Fed were ever free from political pressure .
President Trump has gone from supporting a fed audit , criticizing low interest rates , and supporting the gold standard , to pushing the Fed to adopt the insane policy of zero interest rates The debate is the latest evidence the two major parties will not on their own restore our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roll back the welfare-warfare state should avoid focusing on political parties or personalities .
Instead we must focus on spreading the ideas of liberty among our fellow citizens and building a liberty movement that puts principles of liberty above partisanship .

Ron Paul, Institute for Peace and Prosperity, Released on 10/5/20
President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden spent most of last week’s first Presidential debate trading insults and interrupting each other. The result was a debate with very little discussion of actual issues or policies.
In one of the evening’s few substantive exchanges, President Trump rightly criticized Vice President Biden for saying he would listen to the “scientists” in determining whether to lock down the country. President Trump also acknowledged that the lockdowns were a harmful over-reaction that needs to end.
Unfortunately, President Trump once again pledged that Covid vaccines would soon be available. This raises the specter of a repeat of the swine flu debacle where a vaccine rushed into production for political purposes caused more deaths than the swine flu itself. President Trump also raised concerns about mandatory Covid vaccinations by suggesting the military would be in charge of vaccine distribution.
Vice President Biden vehemently denied he was a socialist, while championing increased spending, taxes, regulations, expanded Obamacare, and a modified “Green New Deal.” Biden may not consider himself a socialist, but if his economic plans were implemented it would take America further down the road to socialism — and serfdom.
President Trump also denounced socialism, while bragging about his own big government policies such as tariffs, massive spending increases, and plans to maintain the “popular” provisions of Obamacare.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
One topic that did not come up was gun control. This may have been because both candidates support infringements on the Second Amendment. Joe Biden was chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee when it passed gun control measures like the assault weapons ban and the “Brady Bill.” President Trump has not only banned bump stocks by executive order, which President Obama refused to do because his Attorney General correctly determined that the President lacks the authority to do so, but has enthusiastically endorsed “red flag” laws. These laws allow law enforcement to, as President Trump put it, “take the guns first worry about due process later.”
The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the federal debt will exceed the gross domestic product next year and reach 195 percent of GDP by 2050! This report was issued before this week’s revelation that the federal debt reached record levels of $27 billion.
This is the biggest threat to our national security, but it was unmentioned during the debate. This is not surprising since few in the political or media elite understand the debt crisis well enough to give it the attention it deserves. Although if Biden wins and Democrats seize control of the Senate, Republicans will likely remember they are supposed to be against big spending and debt.
One critical area that could have led to an interesting exchange was monetary policy. Biden has called Trump’s tweets attacking the Fed as an assault on Fed’s independence, as if the Fed were ever free from political pressure. President Trump has gone from supporting a fed audit, criticizing low interest rates, and supporting the gold standard, to pushing the Fed to adopt the insane policy of zero interest rates
The debate is the latest evidence the two major parties will not on their own restore our lost liberties. Those who want to roll back the welfare-warfare state should avoid focusing on political parties or personalities. Instead we must focus on spreading the ideas of liberty among our fellow citizens and building a liberty movement that puts principles of liberty above partisanship.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-05--UK’s Death Minister Matt Hancock proves he has zero understanding of the PCR test and over 90% False

UK’s Death Minister Matt Hancock proves he has zero understanding of the PCR test and over 90% False Positive Rate

In a Sky News interview , Matt Hancock shows he is completely clueless about the PCR test and the massively @ @ @ @ @ which all of the UK government ’ s Covid policies and restrictions are supposedly based @ @ @ @ @ the intellectual capacity of a brain damaged newt but is less convincing .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ out that a test which has a 1 % or more false positive rate will @ @ @ @ @ proportion of false positives when viral prevalence is around 0.1 % of the population .

In a Sky News interview, Matt Hancock shows he is completely clueless about the PCR test and the massively high false positive rate, which all of the UK government’s Covid policies and restrictions are supposedly based on.
Matt Hancock has the intellectual capacity of a brain damaged newt but is less convincing.