investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Restaurant Hit With Violations Over Customers Ordering Take Out, Then Eating Outside…  Single Mom Of

Restaurant Hit With Violations Over Customers Ordering Take Out, Then Eating Outside…  Single Mom Of 6 Fined $1k Per Day For Keeping Cafe Open

Restaurant Hit With Violations Over Customers Ordering Take Out , Then Eating Outside… SACRAMENTO ( CBS13 ) — A restaurant @ @ @ @ @ customers are eating their to-go orders right outside .
He says it ’ s already @ @ @ @ @ from Code Enforcement .
Ricardo Sibrian , the owner of Brannan Manor in Old Sacramento @ @ @ @ @ take-out then eating directly outside his restaurant .
Under the new regional stay-at-home order , @ @ @ @ @ do delivery and take-out , guidelines Sibrian says he is following .
Single mom of @ @ @ @ @ day for keeping cafe open Michigan ‘ s health department has been fining a mother @ @ @ @ @ day for keeping her cafe open in violation of stay-at-home orders issued Nov. 15 , @ @ @ @ @ show .
Amy Heikken , the owner of Café Rosetta in Calumet , is refusing @ @ @ @ @ fines for keeping her cafe open for indoor dining against state orders , and now @ @ @ @ @ .

Restaurant Hit With Violations Over Customers Ordering Take Out, Then Eating Outside…
SACRAMENTO (CBS13) — A restaurant owner in Old Sacramento claims customers are eating their to-go orders right outside. He says it’s already cost him a phone call from Code Enforcement.
Ricardo Sibrian, the owner of Brannan Manor in Old Sacramento, says customers are ordering take-out then eating directly outside his restaurant. Under the new regional stay-at-home order, restaurants are only allowed to do delivery and take-out, guidelines Sibrian says he is following.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Single mom of 6 fined $1k per day for keeping cafe open
Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
Michigan‘s health department has been fining a mother of six $1,000 per day for keeping her cafe open in violation of stay-at-home orders issued Nov. 15, documents obtained by FOX Business show.
Amy Heikken, the owner of Café Rosetta in Calumet, is refusing to pay multiple $1,000 fines for keeping her cafe open for indoor dining against state orders, and now she is facing legal challenges.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Did they just CALL for the STORM? help out

Did they just vote about next step ?
Surely hope something is happening to stop this insanely corrupt nightmare we @ @ @ @ @ ’ t know , but got a hunch .
Normally these people do not post @ @ @ @ @ but , here are their messages ( and where I live this means they all @ @ @ @ @ the night ) : Ron about the EO : ( time 6:48 referring to “ @ @ @ @ @ Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election ” ) People @ @ @ @ @ after : I may just be searching for a pattern not there , but these @ @ @ @ @ .
Please add to the list if you can see the pattern .
We will @ @ @ @ @ days .

Did they just vote about next step? Surely hope something is happening to stop this insanely corrupt nightmare we are in.
I don’t know, but got a hunch. Normally these people do not post within a 45-min time span but, here are their messages (and where I live this means they all posted in the middle of the night):
Powell about Insurrection Act:
(retweet time 7:32)
Thank you Sidney, #WeThePeople have come to that point in time that EVERY Generation must face. Do #Patriots step up and STOP Tyranny Now, at this time? Or, do we kneel down and submit? It's TIME for @POTUS to drop the HAMMER. WE HAVE YOUR BACK! For the sake of our children pic.twitter.com/41hkkuxrHF — RW 🇺🇸 ⭐⭐⭐ (@Can2geterdone) December 16, 2020
Ron about the EO:
(time 6:48 referring to “Executive Order on Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election”)
(time 6:51)
Linn (declas everything?)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
(time 7:34)
Jenna (team Trump legal posts “100” as in percent)
People with mostly good intel just after:
Remember Joe Biden will never be President…..😎 NEVER !!!! — JUAN Q SAVIN (@richardgibb8) December 16, 2020
I may just be searching for a pattern not there, but these tweets clicked something, somehow.
Please add to the list if you can see the pattern. We will probably know in the coming days.
h/t Endless Speck


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--HOLY SHIT! Signature matches for absentee ballots in Georgia DO NOT MATCH AT ALL

I tested the signature match for absentee ballots in Georgia and it failed .
I 'm tired of the deniers @ @ @ @ @ evidence '' sig match does n't work .
Here is your evidence .
Is it @ @ @ @ @ were rejected out of 1,322,529 in November ?
We must fix this .
pic.twitter.com/oOcZxuRfLx

I tested the signature match for absentee ballots in Georgia and it failed. I'm tired of the deniers saying there is "no evidence" sig match doesn't work. Here is your evidence. Is it any surprise only 2,011 signatures were rejected out of 1,322,529 in November? We must fix this. pic.twitter.com/oOcZxuRfLx
— Greg Dolezal (@dolezal4senate) December 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Almost NONE showed up to Biden’s dystopian rally at a Hunger Games warehouse

ARE WE GOING TO LET FAKE NEWS AND THE MEDIA CARTEL CONVINCE US THIS GUY WON AND TO SHUT UP @ @ @ @ @

ARE WE GOING TO LET FAKE NEWS AND THE MEDIA CARTEL CONVINCE US THIS GUY WON AND TO SHUT UP AND TAKE IT? pic.twitter.com/j52R7XkYF1
— Randy Quaid (@RandyRRQuaid) December 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Maria Bartiromo claims an “Intel Source” told her “Trump did in fact win the election”.

Maria Bartiromo claims an “ Intel Source ” told her “ Trump did in fact win the election ” .

Maria Bartiromo claims an “Intel Source” told her “Trump did in fact win the election”.
Arrest her…pic.twitter.com/pMCJpwJwYc
— Rex Chapman🏇🏼 (@RexChapman) December 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--USD sentiment: all aboard the bear train

The U.S. Dollar continues to trend downwards .
Bloomberg ’ s Fear/Greed indicator for the USD Index has been in @ @ @ @ @ : Such long streaks of bearish sentiment towards the Dollar usually led to medium term @ @ @ @ @ years .
Keep in mind that even if the USD rallies in the interim , @ @ @ @ @ that the Dollar ’ s bear market is over : Meanwhile , the COT report @ @ @ @ @ bullish sign for the USD :

by Troy
The U.S. Dollar continues to trend downwards. Bloomberg’s Fear/Greed indicator for the USD Index has been in fear-mode for 30 consecutive weeks:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Such long streaks of bearish sentiment towards the Dollar usually led to medium term rallies over the past 30 years. Keep in mind that even if the USD rallies in the interim, it doesn’t mean that the Dollar’s bear market is over:
Meanwhile, the COT report continues to flash a medium-term bullish sign for the USD:


Narrative Before/After Election

Media ’ s take on Hunter Biden story before vs after Nov 3rd .
Election interference by the media ?
@ @ @ @ @

Media’s take on Hunter Biden story before vs after Nov 3rd. Election interference by the media? Enemy of the people?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Wus_Good


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--CYBERSECURITY: Academics turn RAM into Wi-Fi cards to steal data from air-gapped systems.

At the core of the AIR-FI technique is the fact that any electronic component generates electromagnetic waves as electric current @ @ @ @ @ signals are radio waves and radio is basically electromagnetic waves , Guri argues that malicious @ @ @ @ @ system by attackers could manipulate the electrical current inside the RAM card in order to @ @ @ @ @ frequency consistent with the normal Wi-Fi signal spectrum ( 2,400 GHz ) .
In his @ @ @ @ @ AIR-FI : Generating Covert WiFi Signals from Air-Gapped Computers , ” Guri shows that perfectly @ @ @ @ @ computer ’ s RAM card can make the card ’ s memory bus emit electromagnetic @ @ @ @ @ Wi-Fi signal .
This signal can then be picked up by anything with a Wi-Fi @ @ @ @ @ an air-gapped system , such as smartphones , laptops , IoT devices , smartwatches , @ @ @

At the core of the AIR-FI technique is the fact that any electronic component generates electromagnetic waves as electric current passes through.
Since Wi-Fi signals are radio waves and radio is basically electromagnetic waves, Guri argues that malicious code planted on an air-gapped system by attackers could manipulate the electrical current inside the RAM card in order to generate electromagnetic waves with the frequency consistent with the normal Wi-Fi signal spectrum (2,400 GHz).
In his research paper, titled “AIR-FI: Generating Covert WiFi Signals from Air-Gapped Computers,” Guri shows that perfectly timed read-write operations to a computer’s RAM card can make the card’s memory bus emit electromagnetic waves consistent with a weak Wi-Fi signal.
This signal can then be picked up by anything with a Wi-Fi antenna in the proximity of an air-gapped system, such as smartphones, laptops, IoT devices, smartwatches, and more.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--No Optimism On Wages, No Problem

No Optimism On Wages, No Problem

The NY Fed ’ s consumer expectations survey had shocking results .
Median spending growth estimates for the next year spiked .
That increase was driven by low income households .
The main narrative is the COVID-19 recession is hurting the poor the most .
That ’ s correct .
Median earnings growth estimates for the next year stayed at 2 % which is below last year ’ s average of 2.3 % .
The probability that the unemployment rate will rise in the next year ( according to consumers ) rose from 35.4 % to 40.1 % .
Expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is below 2019 ’ s average of 2.8 % .
It appears consumers are willing to spend more without much optimism on wages , earnings , or the unemployment rate .
As you can see from the chart above , estimates for spending growth rose 0.6 % to 3.7 % which is the highest growth estimate since July 2016 .
We already know medians aren ’ t disproportionately impacted by the rich .
The survey showed this improvement was mostly driven by households making under $ 50,000 .
This improvement could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt service ratio .
Plus , consumers might anticipate their own pent up demand for spending on leisure and hospitality .
They might plan to go out to dinner more .
Anecdotally , it seems more obvious than ever that we will spend more in 2021 if the vaccines are distributed effectively .
It ’ s just surprising this spending expectation comes along with tepid economic estimates and the fact that it is coming from people in households making less than $ 50,000 .
As you can see from the chart below , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record closes in Q4 which has beaten the major indexes .
The most shorted stocks are up 191 % since the March bottom .
Shorting stocks in 2020 is like playing a video game on expert mode .
Furthermore , the risks are limitless .
Obviously , you can set stop losses or use options , but if you constantly want to have short exposure , it hasn ’ t worked no matter what strategy you tried .
The worse the company , the better the stock has done which makes the situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feels right to have shorts and there are plenty of opportunities , but because losses can mount quickly , you can ’ t wait out the market .
This isn ’ t like value investing in dividend paying stocks where you can be assured capital will be returned over time .
In the case of shorting , even capital raises and weak results haven ’ t been enough to push stocks down .
In the long run , it ’ s impossible for dilution to not matter , but timing is everything for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say they have no problem staying in a short for a while , but that ’ s not financially feasible when the stock is rallying higher .
The fact that this is one of the worst markets for short sellers ever is a bad sign for the speculative stocks .
Things like this tend to mean revert .
Low rates can ’ t prop up bad businesses that dilute shareholders .
2020 has been a wild year in markets as we had a sharp crash and a quick reversal that led to euphoria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ craziest chart of 2020 carries weight .
It ’ s no surprise the craziest is in the SPAC category because these have harbored the most speculation .
As you can see , SPACs without deals announced have risen 20 % year to date .
The S & P 500 is up 12.9 % .
In other words , vehicles looking for private acquisitions which will likely end up being unprofitable companies have beaten the large cap index which is having a good year .
The hope of potential speculation has been better than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SPACs with deals have done this year .
In that frame , this speculation makes sense .
However , the opposite is true in the long term .
Because there is so much demand for private companies with high sales growth , SPACs are getting desperate .
Do you really think after the deals we have gotten so far , that there are more potential opportunities now ?
Capital is chasing everything and anything .
Even firms without sales are seeing their stocks pop .
This is exactly like the marijuana bubble and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see from the chart below , the median post-merger return of SPACs has been -34.9 % in the following year .
This data is from the 47 SPAC mergers from January 2019 to June 2020 .
The current mania in 2H 2020 probably will lead to worse returns because the quality of the companies is falling as investors are looking past bad results .
Furthermore , the pre-deal rallies take away some of the post-deal gains .
IPOs are far more legitimate than SPACs , but they have had a frenzy around them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales ratio of tech IPOs is 23.9 which is the highest since the tech bubble which peaked in the high 40s .
As you can see from the top chart below , IPO first day returns this year are the 3rd highest ever , with only 1999 and 2000 beating them .
In the past few years , about the same percentage of IPOs are unprofitable as in the tech bubble .
That ’ s partially due to low rates .
The scene was set for this level of speculation in the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 .
People in households making less than $ 50,000 per year are very optimistic about their spending growth in 2021 despite the current challenges the economy faces .
This is one of the worst markets for short sellers ever .
Even SPACs without a deal are beating the S & P 500 .
SPACs have historically been bad investments , but that doesn ’ t phase traders who are looking to flip them .
IPOs are about as unprofitable as the tech bubble , but current tech IPOs have lower valuations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IPOs is smaller .

by UPFINA
The NY Fed’s consumer expectations survey had shocking results. Median spending growth estimates for the next year spiked. That increase was driven by low income households. The main narrative is the COVID-19 recession is hurting the poor the most. That’s correct. Median earnings growth estimates for the next year stayed at 2% which is below last year’s average of 2.3%. The probability that the unemployment rate will rise in the next year (according to consumers) rose from 35.4% to 40.1%. Expected household income growth stayed at 2.1% which is below 2019’s average of 2.8%. It appears consumers are willing to spend more without much optimism on wages, earnings, or the unemployment rate.
interesting: @NewYorkFed survey shows rise in median expectations for household spending growth a year from now where is the increased optimism coming from? mostly those with household incomes *below* $50kt.co/kBgV82P9j6 pic.twitter.com/bIx2AjbQoi — Brian Cheung (@bcheungz) December 14, 2020
As you can see from the chart above, estimates for spending growth rose 0.6% to 3.7% which is the highest growth estimate since July 2016. We already know medians aren’t disproportionately impacted by the rich. The survey showed this improvement was mostly driven by households making under $50,000.
This improvement could be related to the consumer’s low debt service ratio. Plus, consumers might anticipate their own pent up demand for spending on leisure and hospitality. They might plan to go out to dinner more. Anecdotally, it seems more obvious than ever that we will spend more in 2021 if the vaccines are distributed effectively. It’s just surprising this spending expectation comes along with tepid economic estimates and the fact that it is coming from people in households making less than $50,000.
Worst Short Selling Market Ever
As you can see from the chart below, the most shorted stocks have had 17 record closes in Q4 which has beaten the major indexes.
Most shorted stocks +3.5% this morning to another record, now up 191% since March So far this quarter, a group of the most shorted stocks in the Russell 3k has hit 17 records. In other words… that's a new high roughly once every 3 days @lena_popina @TheTerminal RIP shorts pic.twitter.com/zcwo8h4diL — Sarah Ponczek (@SarahPonczek) December 14, 2020
The most shorted stocks are up 191% since the March bottom. Shorting stocks in 2020 is like playing a video game on expert mode. Furthermore, the risks are limitless. Obviously, you can set stop losses or use options, but if you constantly want to have short exposure, it hasn’t worked no matter what strategy you tried.
The worse the company, the better the stock has done which makes the situation so tempting for short sellers. It feels right to have shorts and there are plenty of opportunities, but because losses can mount quickly, you can’t wait out the market. This isn’t like value investing in dividend paying stocks where you can be assured capital will be returned over time. In the case of shorting, even capital raises and weak results haven’t been enough to push stocks down.
In the long run, it’s impossible for dilution to not matter, but timing is everything for the shorts. A short seller can say they have no problem staying in a short for a while, but that’s not financially feasible when the stock is rallying higher. The fact that this is one of the worst markets for short sellers ever is a bad sign for the speculative stocks. Things like this tend to mean revert. Low rates can’t prop up bad businesses that dilute shareholders.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Craziest Chart Of 2020
2020 has been a wild year in markets as we had a sharp crash and a quick reversal that led to euphoria. Therefore, saying this is the craziest chart of 2020 carries weight. It’s no surprise the craziest is in the SPAC category because these have harbored the most speculation.
As you can see, SPACs without deals announced have risen 20% year to date.
From today's Bespoke Chart of the Day: SPACs that haven't even announced deals yet are up ~20% YTD! Read the full report at t.co/H4p1RcpfIn. pic.twitter.com/xCnkpc2xFl — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 14, 2020
The S&P 500 is up 12.9%. In other words, vehicles looking for private acquisitions which will likely end up being unprofitable companies have beaten the large cap index which is having a good year. The hope of potential speculation has been better than reality. You can see how well SPACs with deals have done this year. In that frame, this speculation makes sense.
However, the opposite is true in the long term. Because there is so much demand for private companies with high sales growth, SPACs are getting desperate. Do you really think after the deals we have gotten so far, that there are more potential opportunities now? Capital is chasing everything and anything. Even firms without sales are seeing their stocks pop. This is exactly like the marijuana bubble and the tech bubble.
As you can see from the chart below, the median post-merger return of SPACs has been -34.9% in the following year. This data is from the 47 SPAC mergers from January 2019 to June 2020.
'2019-2020 SPACs recorded a negative 14.5% median return in the three months after the merger. Twelve months later they were typically performing even worse.' t.co/KjzoAs0Saa pic.twitter.com/7hQSGs81WJ — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 14, 2020
The current mania in 2H 2020 probably will lead to worse returns because the quality of the companies is falling as investors are looking past bad results. Furthermore, the pre-deal rallies take away some of the post-deal gains.
IPOs Don’t Make Money
IPOs are far more legitimate than SPACs, but they have had a frenzy around them as well. The median price to sales ratio of tech IPOs is 23.9 which is the highest since the tech bubble which peaked in the high 40s. As you can see from the top chart below, IPO first day returns this year are the 3rd highest ever, with only 1999 and 2000 beating them. In the past few years, about the same percentage of IPOs are unprofitable as in the tech bubble. That’s partially due to low rates. The scene was set for this level of speculation in the last expansion, but the mania only started in 2020.
The average first-day return for IPOs this year has been 40%, the highest since the dot-com era And among ~50 companies backed by private equity that went public, their worth jumped 660% on the first day from the latest funding round w/ @luwangnyct.co/0Aq6HnObeZ pic.twitter.com/uVn30Jf75O — Sarah Ponczek (@SarahPonczek) December 14, 2020
Conclusion
People in households making less than $50,000 per year are very optimistic about their spending growth in 2021 despite the current challenges the economy faces. This is one of the worst markets for short sellers ever. Even SPACs without a deal are beating the S&P 500. SPACs have historically been bad investments, but that doesn’t phase traders who are looking to flip them. IPOs are about as unprofitable as the tech bubble, but current tech IPOs have lower valuations and the first day pop of all IPOs is smaller.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Long streak of high volatility

Long streak of high volatility

As Bespoke noted , VIX has closed above 20 for 207 days in a row .
Such long periods of @ @ @ @ @ and typically happened after a major market crash ( 1998 , 2000-2002 , 2007-2009 ) @ @ @ @ @ occurred after a major crash , the S & P 500 rallied further over the @ @ @

by Troy
As Bespoke noted, VIX has closed above 20 for 207 days in a row. Such long periods of elevated volatility are uncommon, and typically happened after a major market crash (1998, 2000-2002, 2007-2009):
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Since these historical cases occurred after a major crash, the S&P 500 rallied further over the next year:


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--PLTR – Technical Analysis from a Professional Investor – Update 12/15

So I did an update a week ago telling you why PLTR at 25 was likely the bottom .
I also told you to get the hell out of the 12/11-12/18 options as those would expire worthless .
now I will go over how to trade the stock in the next couple of weeks .
I am cutting down the number of words I am writing because it has come to my attention from comments in my previous posts that a lot of you guys can ’ t read .
So I am going to keep it even more basic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and NIO were after their first initial rally , correction and consolidation before the second leg rally which then forms the symmetrical triangle .
Again , this was the same chart for Tesla for the first phase of the run-up and transition to the second run-up .
The slight skew of the triangle doesn ’ t matter , what matters is you see a narrowing of the band before the upward movement .
Now we look at option pricing .
Option deltas are the most attractive that I have seen on PLTR for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me that there are very few buyers of call options at this point and we are in a lull before periods of significant more option buying .
We are about to start the explosive second run phase of Palantir and my target still mid to low 40s by end of the year/early next year .
Again , don ’ t be surprised if we still dip down to around 23 .
But the downside is largely done .
This is of course assuming we don ’ t get a massive stock market crash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hedges on VIX calls that are rolling on a monthly basis .
TLR : go long PLTR now , risk reward is quite favorable .
23 is the lowest it can probably go in the short term .
You are already seeing doubters on PLTR on WSB .
This means from a psychological stand-point , most would be sellers are already gone .
The market is now open widely to incremental buyers .
I bought some 12/24 calls at the 30 strike and added more to my 5/21 50 strike .
Disclaimer : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by vegaseller
So I did an update a week ago telling you why PLTR at 25 was likely the bottom. I also told you to get the hell out of the 12/11-12/18 options as those would expire worthless.
www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k98p6h/pltr_technical_analysis_from_a_professional/
now I will go over how to trade the stock in the next couple of weeks. I am cutting down the number of words I am writing because it has come to my attention from comments in my previous posts that a lot of you guys can’t read. So I am going to keep it even more basic.
We are now approaching where TSLA and NIO were after their first initial rally, correction and consolidation before the second leg rally which then forms the symmetrical triangle.
preview.redd.it/yzim1gl5ke561.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e35a306b95241794ff00e6c69b14e6285bae886
Again, this was the same chart for Tesla for the first phase of the run-up and transition to the second run-up. The slight skew of the triangle doesn’t matter, what matters is you see a narrowing of the band before the upward movement.
preview.redd.it/obkgayjake561.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=71c53d79f93f758ee43d8b46c61646088f1f7293
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now we look at option pricing. Option deltas are the most attractive that I have seen on PLTR for almost 1+ month now. These tell me that there are very few buyers of call options at this point and we are in a lull before periods of significant more option buying.

preview.redd.it/v2btc0pyje561.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e01729545a596866a3b062935bee7d25f6ebe41
We are about to start the explosive second run phase of Palantir and my target still mid to low 40s by end of the year/early next year. Again, don’t be surprised if we still dip down to around 23. But the downside is largely done. This is of course assuming we don’t get a massive stock market crash for which I have small amounts of hedges on VIX calls that are rolling on a monthly basis.
preview.redd.it/1orczd5xje561.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef76cf4df7324f0779a1949f980dd78d29f2f150
TLR: go long PLTR now, risk reward is quite favorable. 23 is the lowest it can probably go in the short term. You are already seeing doubters on PLTR on WSB. This means from a psychological stand-point, most would be sellers are already gone. The market is now open widely to incremental buyers. I bought some 12/24 calls at the 30 strike and added more to my 5/21 50 strike.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Index rebalancing. Do not be long this Friday.

This week will see the inclusion of $ TSLA into the SNP .
Typically how this works is when a stock is added to the index , another company comes out .
The market cap of the new company is usually larger than the exiting one .
Since the S & P 500 index is market cap weighted , the weightings of all the other stocks need to come down to make room for the new company .
Tesla will enter the SNP as the 7th largest stock .
This has never occurred before .
This means that an absolutely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Billion + , has to be sold to make room for it .
The table below shows the current weighting of the largest SNP stocks and amount of equity to be sold , with the largest being $ AAPL .
The chart below shows the DOM ( depth of market ) for $ AAPL as of yesterday 14:20 .
The COB is the current order book with the red areas showing a representation of the resting limit orders currently in the market , the actual orders and size are on the side .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to retail ) Notice the large resting orders of big traders at 128 , which is about where the stock stopped yesterday .
Above that 129 , and then an absolutely huge order at 130 .
Big institutions are getting out as everyone is FOMO ’ ing in .
They will support this market into Friday and buy any small dips in order to keep the buying going whilst they get out .
As of yesterday afternoon I am mostly short with my only long positions $ PSTH , and some Uranium and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the hands of these players , you can always get back in next week , the market won ’ t run away from you in 3 days .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by BeernerdoMazzeroli
This week will see the inclusion of $TSLA into the SNP. Typically how this works is when a stock is added to the index, another company comes out. The market cap of the new company is usually larger than the exiting one. Since the S&P 500 index is market cap weighted, the weightings of all the other stocks need to come down to make room for the new company.
Tesla will enter the SNP as the 7th largest stock. This has never occurred before.
This means that an absolutely massive amount of equity, $50 Billion +, has to be sold to make room for it.
The table below shows the current weighting of the largest SNP stocks and amount of equity to be sold, with the largest being $AAPL.
imgur.com/gallery/qxtcvLu
The chart below shows the DOM (depth of market) for $AAPL as of yesterday 14:20. The COB is the current order book with the red areas showing a representation of the resting limit orders currently in the market, the actual orders and size are on the side. (This information is typically not available to retail)
imgur.com/gallery/bCaBMbB
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Notice the large resting orders of big traders at 128, which is about where the stock stopped yesterday. Above that 129, and then an absolutely huge order at 130.
Big institutions are getting out as everyone is FOMO’ing in.
They will support this market into Friday and buy any small dips in order to keep the buying going whilst they get out.
As of yesterday afternoon I am mostly short with my only long positions $PSTH, and some Uranium and energy. Do not trade your money into the hands of these players, you can always get back in next week, the market won’t run away from you in 3 days.
Positions:
$BRKB Long Put March 21 exp;
$AAPL Long Put Friday exp;
$ERX Long Call ’22 exp;
$URA Long Call June ’21 exp;
$PSTH Long Call Jun 18’21 30 (gang gang);
Long equity: $BTWN, $REMX, $UGL;
Short equity: $WKHS
preview.redd.it/rmlz2of7zi561.png?width=2677&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e4de8a7a3e467d911870d413273227de49b2681
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


Short-covering, risky rally

There is a lot of speculative activity in the markets right now .
Investors and traders are chasing the riskiest @ @ @ @ @ and the general attitude has become “ the riskier , the better ” .
An @ @ @ @ @ & most leveraged stocks has SOARED over the past 30 days , vastly outperforming broader @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 , NASDAQ , and Russell .
This index outperformed the S & @ @ @ @ @ 129 % over the past 9 months ( March 2020 bottom – present ) .
@ @ @ @ @ of short covering .
The previous record of 83 % was on December 3 , @ @ @ @ @ into context , U.S. stocks performed poorly in the first half of 2010 .

by Troy
There is a lot of speculative activity in the markets right now. Investors and traders are chasing the riskiest of assets these days, and the general attitude has become “the riskier, the better”. An index of the most shorted & most leveraged stocks has SOARED over the past 30 days, vastly outperforming broader indices such as the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This index outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 129% over the past 9 months (March 2020 bottom – present). That’s a lot of short covering. The previous record of 83% was on December 3, 2009. To put that into context, U.S. stocks performed poorly in the first half of 2010.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--The Four Biggest Accounting Firms (Ernst & Young, KPMG, PWC & Deloitte) Employ Over 2,000 Members of

The Four Biggest Accounting Firms (Ernst & Young, KPMG, PWC & Deloitte) Employ Over 2,000 Members of the Communist Party

JUST IN – KPMG , Ernst & Young , Deloitte , PwC accounting companies have employed more than 2,000 members @ @ @ @ @ , including at least one partner in every firm ( via The Telegraph ) .

JUST IN – KPMG, Ernst & Young, Deloitte, PwC accounting companies have employed more than 2,000 members of the Chinese Communist Party, including at least one partner in every firm (via The Telegraph).
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--One Little Problem with the “All-Electric” Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the “Waste” Gasoline?

Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19 , debt and energy–inextricably bound as debt funds consumption– will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback .
Back in the early days of the oil industry ( 1880s and 1890s ) , the product that the industry could sell at a profit was kerosene for lighting and heating .
Since there was no automobile industry yet , gasoline was a waste product that was dumped into streams .
Why couldn ’ t the refiners produce only kerosene ?
Why did they end up with “ worthless ” gasoline ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a variety of products .
While there is some “ wiggle room ” to produce more diesel and less gasoline , etc.
, it isn ’ t possible to turn a barrel of oil into only one product .
John D. Rockefeller became very wealthy by cornering much of the oil market in the 19th century .
But he didn ’ t become fabulously wealthy until the 20th century , when the rise of automobiles created a market for all the “ waste ” gasoline .
Rockefeller became super-wealthy when all the products @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sold at a premium rather than just a portion of the products .
This reality has been forgotten : the price that can be fetched for a barrel of oil depends on the demand for all the products , not just a few of the products .
Those demanding an all-electric auto-truck fleet as a “ green ” alternative will re-create the dilemma of what to do with the “ waste ” gasoline .
The world will still want fuel for all those container ships bringing all the goodies of a consumerist society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of call , jet fuel for all those exotic vacations enabled by 550 mile-per-hour aircraft , and oil-based lubricants , plastics and petro-chemicals , and so oil will still be pumped and refined , and almost half of it will be gasoline .
We can either use it or throw it away but we can ’ t magically turn a barrel of oil into only one product .
This is a topic worthy of your understanding , so grab a vat of your favorite beverage and turn off all distractions .
Longtime readers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets for 15 years .
Despite ups and downs in price , the oil market has been remarkably stable .
This stability is about to transition to chronic instability : wild swings in price , shortages , and social chaos in both producing and consumer nations .
Let ’ s start with the most basic dynamics in the cost of producing oil , refining it and selling the products at a profit .
1 .
As a general rule , a barrel of oil ( 42 gallons , 196 liters ) yields a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The price the producers can charge for each product–gasoline , diesel fuel , heating oil , jet fuel , propane , etc.– depends on demand for each product .
If the price for one product falls drastically , the oil producer can ’ t increase the price of some other product to compensate for the loss of income unless demand for the other products will support higher prices .
Consider the huge decline in demand for jet fuel as a result of global air travel dropping in the pandemic .
Oil producers can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gasoline to compensate for the drop in the price of jet fuel .
If gasoline demand continues declining ( due to fewer commutes , etc . )
then producers can ’ t charge more for diesel to make up the drop in the price of gasoline .
In other words , there has to be strong demand for all the products in a barrel of oil for producers to get enough money to extract , refine and transport the products globally .
Unlike the old days when producers could afford to throw away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extraction and refining were so low , now producers need more than $ 45/barrel just to break even .
This is what I ’ m calling Oil Paradox # 1 : if demand for any of the primary products is weak , producers can ’ t afford to continue extracting and refining oil , even if there is strong demand for some products .
2 .
Transportation is the primary use of oil : 68 % of all petroleum products are consumed by transport , 26 % by industrial and 6 % residential/commercial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the global demand is roughly the same . )
If demand for gasoline , diesel and jet fuel remains weak , the value of each barrel of oil will remain below break-even , even if the industrial need for some products ( lubricants , etc . )
is strong because these industrial products are essential to the world ’ s industrial economy .
3 .
Much of the consumption of the past 20 years was funded by debt , which is now $ 277 trillion globally and accelerating .
Humanity has borrowed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what remains is the interest due on the debt .
This interest constrains future borrowing .
The “ solution ” to interest is inflation , which devalues the interest due .
But it also devalues the purchasing power of the currencies being inflated , and so everyone ’ s money buys fewer goods and services .
This is the Debt-Inflation Paradox : the more interest you owe , the greater your need to inflate away the burden of interest .
But inflation destroys the purchasing power of money , impoverishing everyone who needs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no way out of this paradox : either the global economy defaults on its debts , destroying trillions in phantom wealth , or its currencies lose value , impoverishing everyone .
Since so much consumption is funded by debt , any reduction in borrowing , no matter how modest , will destroy demand for petroleum , triggering the Oil Paradox ( producers can ’ t charge enough to justify pumping and refining oil ) .
4 .
The pandemic has accelerated consumption trends that reduce demand for fuels .
Remote work is here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may read .
Corporations can no longer afford to staff centralized offices in costly cities .
Making everyone commute to offices is no longer financially viable .
Corporate travel is also no longer financially viable .
As profit margins fall , the luxury of jetting to physical meetings is no longer justifiable except for senior management– a few dozen people , not hundreds or thousands .
Tourism thrived in an economy of easy , low-cost credit and secure incomes .
Lenders can no longer afford to lend to those with poor credit–notice how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incomes are no longer secure .
If the pandemic were the only issue , it would be possible to see a return to 2019-level consumption .
But unsustainable debt loads will only get more unsustainable , so much of the consumption that was funded by debt will go away and not come back : the interest on all the existing debt remains to be paid , one way or another .
This decline in consumption has lowered the price of oil far below break-even for most producers .
As the article below explains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ petroleum : one to get it out of the ground , refine it and deliver it to market , and the second for the social costs the oil pays for .
This is the famous Oil Curse : nations with oil reserves end up depending on selling oil for virtually all their revenues because it doesn ’ t make sense to invest in less reliable , less profitable sectors .
As a result , Saudi Arabia can pump the oil for $ 45/barrel , but it needs a price of $ 85/barrel to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has promised its people .
If you glance at the charts in this article , you ’ ll see the full break-even price of oil for OPEC nations is extremely high .
Breakeven crude oil prices are one metric of the economic constraints facing OPEC+ members This generates Oil Paradox # 2 : low demand/low prices for oil may be financially viable in terms of extracting the oil , but the societies that depend on vast oil revenues will unravel if oil prices stay low , and that will disrupt production .
Roughly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tight shale and other unconventional oil sources .
Many of these wells are no longer profitable and will be shut down once the producers ’ credit lines dry up .
( This is already happening , triggering mass bankruptcies in the fracking industry ) .
The oil producing nations are basically surviving on $ 40/barrel oil by borrowing against future revenues .
This is a dangerous game because if oil prices remain low their credit lines will eventually be withdrawn .
The oil producers need supply to fall drastically enough to raise prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level .
But nobody can afford to cut their own production enough to reduce global supply enough to matter .
This introduces Oil Paradox # 3 : should petroleum producers succeed to slashing supply so oil goes to $ 85/barrel , the higher cost will push the fragile consuming nations into recession or depression , which will slash demand even more , which will require even deeper production cuts to maintain prices .
If we put all these paradoxes together , we see that oil markets are now intrinsically unstable and can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high break-even prices , declining demand and the end of debt-funded consumption can not be resolved : high prices crush demand , low prices crush producers , and debt is crushing both consumers and producers .
Much hope is being placed on so-called renewable energy , most of which is not renewable but replaceable , as I ’ ve learned from Nate Hagens .
A forest is renewable , a solar panel or windmill must be replaced every 20 years at enormous expense .
Right now all alternative energy sources–wind , solar , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of global energy consumption .
( see chart below ) Despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested , all the alternative energy sources are a tiny fraction of global consumption , and their supposed fantastic rates of growth is revealed on this chart as inconsequential : all this new energy doesn ’ t replace a single drop of oil , it simply fuels additional consumption .
It will take a monumental investment and many years to get this to 10 % .
The reality is the vast majority of the global economy still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industrial essentials such as lubricants .
How ( Not ) to Run a Modern Society on Solar and Wind Power Alone Petroleum is now an unstable system and for all the reasons outlined above it can not be restored to stability : just as time is a one-way arrow , so is the loss of stability .
What can we expect ?
Unstable systems are prone to wild swings to extremes and unpredictable collapses .
So we may see collapses in the price of oil as we saw in March , and then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which then crash once demand declines .
This unpredictability complicates projections and generates uncertainty .
This is the final paradox ( # 4 ) : the unpredictability of oil markets is itself a destabilizing force .
Decisions on future production and consumption can not be long-term , and this constrains investment in future production .
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19 , debt and energy–inextricably bound as debt funds consumption– will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback .
If you found value in this content , please join @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1/month patron of my work via patreon.com .
My new book is available !
A Hacker ’ s Teleology : Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20 % and 15 % discounts ( Kindle $ 7 , print $ 17 , audiobook now available $ 17.46 ) Read excerpts of the book for free ( PDF ) .
The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction .
Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today ( with host Richard Bonugli ) ( 31:40 ) A Hacker ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shrinking Planet ( Kindle $ 8.95 , print $ 20 , audiobook $ 17.46 ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
Will You Be Richer or Poorer ?
: Profit , Power , and AI in a Traumatized World ( Kindle $ 5 , print $ 10 , audiobook ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
Pathfinding our Destiny : Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ( $ 5 ( Kindle ) , $ 10 ( print ) , ( audiobook ) : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PDF ) .
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher : The Disappearance of Drake $ 1.29 ( Kindle ) , $ 8.95 ( print ) ; read the first chapters for free ( PDF ) Money and Work Unchained $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 15 ( print ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
Become a $ 1/month patron of my work via patreon.com .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy–inextricably bound as debt funds consumption– will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.
Back in the early days of the oil industry (1880s and 1890s), the product that the industry could sell at a profit was kerosene for lighting and heating. Since there was no automobile industry yet, gasoline was a waste product that was dumped into streams.
Why couldn’t the refiners produce only kerosene? Why did they end up with “worthless” gasoline?
The answer is a barrel of oil produces a variety of products. While there is some “wiggle room” to produce more diesel and less gasoline, etc., it isn’t possible to turn a barrel of oil into only one product.
John D. Rockefeller became very wealthy by cornering much of the oil market in the 19th century. But he didn’t become fabulously wealthy until the 20th century, when the rise of automobiles created a market for all the “waste” gasoline.
Rockefeller became super-wealthy when all the products of each barrel of oil could be sold at a premium rather than just a portion of the products.
This reality has been forgotten: the price that can be fetched for a barrel of oil depends on the demand for all the products, not just a few of the products.
Those demanding an all-electric auto-truck fleet as a “green” alternative will re-create the dilemma of what to do with the “waste” gasoline. The world will still want fuel for all those container ships bringing all the goodies of a consumerist society, all those cruise ships visiting ports of call, jet fuel for all those exotic vacations enabled by 550 mile-per-hour aircraft, and oil-based lubricants, plastics and petro-chemicals, and so oil will still be pumped and refined, and almost half of it will be gasoline.
We can either use it or throw it away but we can’t magically turn a barrel of oil into only one product.
This is a topic worthy of your understanding, so grab a vat of your favorite beverage and turn off all distractions.
Longtime readers know I’ve focused on energy-oil markets for 15 years. Despite ups and downs in price, the oil market has been remarkably stable.
This stability is about to transition to chronic instability: wild swings in price, shortages, and social chaos in both producing and consumer nations.
Let’s start with the most basic dynamics in the cost of producing oil, refining it and selling the products at a profit.
1. As a general rule, a barrel of oil (42 gallons, 196 liters) yields a range of heavier and lighter products.
The price the producers can charge for each product–gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, propane, etc.– depends on demand for each product.
If the price for one product falls drastically, the oil producer can’t increase the price of some other product to compensate for the loss of income unless demand for the other products will support higher prices.
Consider the huge decline in demand for jet fuel as a result of global air travel dropping in the pandemic. Oil producers can’t just raise the price of gasoline to compensate for the drop in the price of jet fuel.
If gasoline demand continues declining (due to fewer commutes, etc.) then producers can’t charge more for diesel to make up the drop in the price of gasoline.
In other words, there has to be strong demand for all the products in a barrel of oil for producers to get enough money to extract, refine and transport the products globally.
Unlike the old days when producers could afford to throw away some petroleum products because their costs of extraction and refining were so low, now producers need more than $45/barrel just to break even.
This is what I’m calling Oil Paradox #1: if demand for any of the primary products is weak, producers can’t afford to continue extracting and refining oil, even if there is strong demand for some products.
2. Transportation is the primary use of oil: 68% of all petroleum products are consumed by transport, 26% by industrial and 6% residential/commercial. (These are U.S. statistics, but the global demand is roughly the same.)
If demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remains weak, the value of each barrel of oil will remain below break-even, even if the industrial need for some products (lubricants, etc.) is strong because these industrial products are essential to the world’s industrial economy.
3. Much of the consumption of the past 20 years was funded by debt, which is now $277 trillion globally and accelerating. Humanity has borrowed and spent trillions on consumption, and what remains is the interest due on the debt.
This interest constrains future borrowing. The “solution” to interest is inflation, which devalues the interest due. But it also devalues the purchasing power of the currencies being inflated, and so everyone’s money buys fewer goods and services.
This is the Debt-Inflation Paradox: the more interest you owe, the greater your need to inflate away the burden of interest. But inflation destroys the purchasing power of money, impoverishing everyone who needs the money to live.
There is no way out of this paradox: either the global economy defaults on its debts, destroying trillions in phantom wealth, or its currencies lose value, impoverishing everyone.
Since so much consumption is funded by debt, any reduction in borrowing, no matter how modest, will destroy demand for petroleum, triggering the Oil Paradox (producers can’t charge enough to justify pumping and refining oil).
4. The pandemic has accelerated consumption trends that reduce demand for fuels. Remote work is here to stay, regardless of what you may read. Corporations can no longer afford to staff centralized offices in costly cities. Making everyone commute to offices is no longer financially viable.
Corporate travel is also no longer financially viable. As profit margins fall, the luxury of jetting to physical meetings is no longer justifiable except for senior management– a few dozen people, not hundreds or thousands.
Tourism thrived in an economy of easy, low-cost credit and secure incomes. Lenders can no longer afford to lend to those with poor credit–notice how credit card limits have been drastically reduced–and incomes are no longer secure.
If the pandemic were the only issue, it would be possible to see a return to 2019-level consumption. But unsustainable debt loads will only get more unsustainable, so much of the consumption that was funded by debt will go away and not come back: the interest on all the existing debt remains to be paid, one way or another.
This decline in consumption has lowered the price of oil far below break-even for most producers. As the article below explains, there are two break-even prices for petroleum: one to get it out of the ground, refine it and deliver it to market, and the second for the social costs the oil pays for.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This is the famous Oil Curse: nations with oil reserves end up depending on selling oil for virtually all their revenues because it doesn’t make sense to invest in less reliable, less profitable sectors.
As a result, Saudi Arabia can pump the oil for $45/barrel, but it needs a price of $85/barrel to pay all the social welfare costs it has promised its people.
If you glance at the charts in this article, you’ll see the full break-even price of oil for OPEC nations is extremely high.
Breakeven crude oil prices are one metric of the economic constraints facing OPEC+ members
This generates Oil Paradox #2: low demand/low prices for oil may be financially viable in terms of extracting the oil, but the societies that depend on vast oil revenues will unravel if oil prices stay low, and that will disrupt production.
Roughly half of U.S. petroleum production is from tight shale and other unconventional oil sources. Many of these wells are no longer profitable and will be shut down once the producers’ credit lines dry up. (This is already happening, triggering mass bankruptcies in the fracking industry).
The oil producing nations are basically surviving on $40/barrel oil by borrowing against future revenues. This is a dangerous game because if oil prices remain low their credit lines will eventually be withdrawn.
The oil producers need supply to fall drastically enough to raise prices back to the $80/barrel or higher level. But nobody can afford to cut their own production enough to reduce global supply enough to matter.
This introduces Oil Paradox #3: should petroleum producers succeed to slashing supply so oil goes to $85/barrel, the higher cost will push the fragile consuming nations into recession or depression, which will slash demand even more, which will require even deeper production cuts to maintain prices.
If we put all these paradoxes together, we see that oil markets are now intrinsically unstable and cannot return to stability because the mix of high break-even prices, declining demand and the end of debt-funded consumption cannot be resolved: high prices crush demand, low prices crush producers, and debt is crushing both consumers and producers.
Much hope is being placed on so-called renewable energy, most of which is not renewable but replaceable, as I’ve learned from Nate Hagens. A forest is renewable, a solar panel or windmill must be replaced every 20 years at enormous expense.
Right now all alternative energy sources–wind, solar, etc.– generate no more than 4% of global energy consumption. (see chart below) Despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested, all the alternative energy sources are a tiny fraction of global consumption, and their supposed fantastic rates of growth is revealed on this chart as inconsequential: all this new energy doesn’t replace a single drop of oil, it simply fuels additional consumption.
It will take a monumental investment and many years to get this to 10%. The reality is the vast majority of the global economy still depends entirely on petroleum for transport and industrial essentials such as lubricants.
How (Not) to Run a Modern Society on Solar and Wind Power Alone
Petroleum is now an unstable system and for all the reasons outlined above it cannot be restored to stability: just as time is a one-way arrow, so is the loss of stability.
What can we expect? Unstable systems are prone to wild swings to extremes and unpredictable collapses. So we may see collapses in the price of oil as we saw in March, and then rapid ascents in price above $100/barrel, which then crash once demand declines.
This unpredictability complicates projections and generates uncertainty. This is the final paradox (#4): the unpredictability of oil markets is itself a destabilizing force. Decisions on future production and consumption cannot be long-term, and this constrains investment in future production.
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy–inextricably bound as debt funds consumption– will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
My new book is available! A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17, audiobook now available $17.46)
Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF).
The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction.
Recent Podcasts:
Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today (with host Richard Bonugli) (31:40)
AxisOfEasy Salon #34: Reclaiming Capital and Agency
My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts
My recent books:
A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Now that you can trade Water Futures, I’m betting on the Appharvest IPO to boom.

California and the Western States are running out of Water , so is Mexico , where we get most of @ @ @ @ @ and now that the Markets can finally trade on Water Futures , I don ’ @ @ @ @ @ any coincidence that the Appharvest SPAC stock $ NOVS has rocketed up over 50 % @ @ @ @ @ $ 18.73 from just $ 10.80 a month ago .
Indoor farming uses 90 % @ @ @ @ @ , and Appharvest is promising to be completely water independent , operating on collected rain @ @ @ @ @ trading will be the catalyst for Greenhouse and Vertical Farming to boom , they ’ @ @ @ @ @ destructive droughts that are projected due to climate change .
Disclaimer : This information is @ @ @ @ @ Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do @ @ @ @ @ consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

California and the Western States are running out of Water, so is Mexico, where we get most of our fruit and vegetables, and now that the Markets can finally trade on Water Futures, I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the Appharvest SPAC stock $NOVS has rocketed up over 50%, hitting a peak of $18.73 from just $10.80 a month ago. Indoor farming uses 90% less water than traditional farming, and Appharvest is promising to be completely water independent, operating on collected rain water alone; Water futures trading will be the catalyst for Greenhouse and Vertical Farming to boom, they’re effectively a hedge against destructive droughts that are projected due to climate change.
www.cnn.com/2020/12/07/investing/water-futures-trading/index.html
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-16--Top Republicans are demanding that the State of California return ALL federal money to US Treasury t

Top Republicans are demanding that the State of California return ALL federal money to US Treasury that Sec. of State Padilla is attempting to use for an unlawful contract with a pro-Biden firm to contact voters.

Top Republicans are demanding that the State of California return ALL federal money to @ USTreasury that Sec .
of @ @ @ @ @ use for an unlawful contract with a pro-Biden firm to contact voters .
The $ @ @ @ @ @ violation of the law.👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/2RpxfmQYml

🚨BREAKING🚨
Top Republicans are demanding that the State of California return ALL federal money to @USTreasury that Sec. of State Padilla is attempting to use for an unlawful contract with a pro-Biden firm to contact voters. The $35 million contract is a violation of the law.👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/2RpxfmQYml
— Oversight Committee Republicans (@GOPoversight) December 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Can 20 Years of Deflation Be Compressed into Two Years? We’re About to Find Out

Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse , a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020 .
The absolutely last thing anyone expects is a collapse of all the asset bubbles , i.e .
a deflation of assets that reverses the full 20 years of bubble-utopia since 2000 .
The consensus is universal : assets will continue to loft ever higher , forever and ever , because the Fed has our back , i.e .
central banks will create trillions out of thin air without any consequence other than assets lofting ever higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Francisco Federal Reserve begs to differ .
Here is an excerpt from Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics ( San Francisco Federal Reserve ) “ Measured by deviations in a benchmark economic statistic , the real natural rate of interest , these responses indicate that pandemics are followed by sustained periods–over multiple decades–with depressed investment opportunities , possibly due to excess capital per unit of surviving labor , and/or heightened desires to save , possibly due to an increase in precautionary saving or a rebuilding of depleted wealth .
Either way , if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of COVID-19 then the global economic trajectory will be very different than was expected only a few months ago.
” Allow me to translate : wars launch 20-year booms of rebuilding , pandemics launch 20 years of deflation .
Oops !
Not only do wars destroy physical assets that must be rebuilt , they also tend to kill off a consequential percentage of the labor force , generating a labor shortage that pushes up wages .
So capital wins funding the rebuilding and labor wins because workers are scarce and in demand : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warm and fuzzy , especially Covid-19 .
Pandemics are like neutron bombs , they leave the built environment intact so there ’ s no impetus to invest .
Unlike the Black Death that decimated the human workforce from China to Europe in the 1350s , Covid disproportionately takes the lives of the elderly , most of whom have already left the workforce .
So the Covid pandemic ’ s reduction of the workforce is too modest in scale to create labor scarcities consequential enough to push wages higher .
In other words , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a low-demand environment and labors ’ wages stagnate in this low-demand economy .
Cue 20 years of asset deflation .
Bu-bu-but the Fed is omnipotent , godlike in its powers !
The Fed can push stocks to the moon , never mind history , fundamentals or reality !
Yes , well , um , fantasies are nice , and delusions are fun , but reality inevitably intrudes and diminishing returns on the Fed ’ s neofeudalist feast for the super-wealthy are about to grab markets by the throat , regardless of what the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of funny little things called reversion to the mean , bubble-symmetry and non-linear dynamics that the Fed doesn ’ t actually control ( gasp ! )
because they are not fully controllable by human policies .
Statistical outliers / extremes have a preternatural propensity to reverse , regardless of human manipulation ( recall that the way of the Tao is reversal . )
And these reversals are not “ buy the dip ” wiggles ; they completely reverse the entire bubblicious move to the stars via bubble-symmetry : so markets that go from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back down to 1,000 , no matter how many humans shout , scream , plead and whine “ that ’ s not possible !
” Oh yes it is .
Hubris weighs heavily on our faith in the “ right ” human policies to work magic forever and ever .
So as long as the Fed follows the “ right policy ” and continues printing trillions of dollars out of thin air and buying bonds ( and whatever else needs to be bought up to loft markets higher ) then Dow 100,000 is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The idea that human don ’ t control everything is anathema to a technocrat elite , and so when the inevitable reversal crashes assets , everyone will rush around looking for the human-action cause of the disaster and the human-action fix , so we can get back on track to Dow 100,000 .
But the search for causes will be in vain , for extremes pendulum swings reach a limit and then swing back , eventually reaching the opposite extreme minus a bit of friction , which is minimal in a frictionless financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you want evidence that the pendulum has swung as far as it can go , ponder this chart of billionaire wealth jacked higher by the Fed and its central bank cronies : Can 20 years of asset deflation be compressed into a mere two years ?
Absolutely .
The global financial system has been running a 20-year experiment in extremes that ’ s close to producing interesting results .
Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse , a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would be near-infinite .
and the reversal of that near-infinite extreme will be one for the ages .
If you found value in this content , please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $ 1/month patron of my work via patreon.com .
My new book is available !
A Hacker ’ s Teleology : Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20 % and 15 % discounts ( Kindle $ 7 , print $ 17 , audiobook now available $ 17.46 ) Read excerpts of the book for free ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Book and the Introduction .
Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today ( with host Richard Bonugli ) ( 31:40 ) A Hacker ’ s Teleology : Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet ( Kindle $ 8.95 , print $ 20 , audiobook $ 17.46 ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
Will You Be Richer or Poorer ?
: Profit , Power , and AI in a Traumatized World ( Kindle $ 5 , print $ 10 , audiobook ) Read the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pathfinding our Destiny : Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ( $ 5 ( Kindle ) , $ 10 ( print ) , ( audiobook ) : Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher : The Disappearance of Drake $ 1.29 ( Kindle ) , $ 8.95 ( print ) ; read the first chapters for free ( PDF ) Money and Work Unchained $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 15 ( print ) Read the first section for free ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patron of my work via patreon.com .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020.
The absolutely last thing anyone expects is a collapse of all the asset bubbles, i.e. a deflation of assets that reverses the full 20 years of bubble-utopia since 2000. The consensus is universal: assets will continue to loft ever higher, forever and ever, because the Fed has our back, i.e. central banks will create trillions out of thin air without any consequence other than assets lofting ever higher.
This research paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve begs to differ. Here is an excerpt from Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (San Francisco Federal Reserve)
“Measured by deviations in a benchmark economic statistic, the real natural rate of interest, these responses indicate that pandemics are followed by sustained periods–over multiple decades–with depressed investment opportunities, possibly due to excess capital per unit of surviving labor, and/or heightened desires to save, possibly due to an increase in precautionary saving or a rebuilding of depleted wealth. Either way, if the trends play out similarly in the wake of COVID-19 then the global economic trajectory will be very different than was expected only a few months ago.”
Allow me to translate: wars launch 20-year booms of rebuilding, pandemics launch 20 years of deflation. Oops! Not only do wars destroy physical assets that must be rebuilt, they also tend to kill off a consequential percentage of the labor force, generating a labor shortage that pushes up wages.
So capital wins funding the rebuilding and labor wins because workers are scarce and in demand: win-win baby! Pandemics are considerably less warm and fuzzy, especially Covid-19. Pandemics are like neutron bombs, they leave the built environment intact so there’s no impetus to invest.
Unlike the Black Death that decimated the human workforce from China to Europe in the 1350s, Covid disproportionately takes the lives of the elderly, most of whom have already left the workforce. So the Covid pandemic’s reduction of the workforce is too modest in scale to create labor scarcities consequential enough to push wages higher.
In other words, lose-lose: capital earns low returns in a low-demand environment and labors’ wages stagnate in this low-demand economy.
Cue 20 years of asset deflation. Bu-bu-but the Fed is omnipotent, godlike in its powers! The Fed can push stocks to the moon, never mind history, fundamentals or reality!
Yes, well, um, fantasies are nice, and delusions are fun, but reality inevitably intrudes and diminishing returns on the Fed’s neofeudalist feast for the super-wealthy are about to grab markets by the throat, regardless of what the Fed bleats.
There are a couple of funny little things called reversion to the mean, bubble-symmetry and non-linear dynamics that the Fed doesn’t actually control (gasp!) because they are not fully controllable by human policies. Statistical outliers / extremes have a preternatural propensity to reverse, regardless of human manipulation (recall that the way of the Tao is reversal.)
And these reversals are not “buy the dip” wiggles; they completely reverse the entire bubblicious move to the stars via bubble-symmetry: so markets that go from 1,000 to 30,000 retrace all the way back down to 1,000, no matter how many humans shout, scream, plead and whine “that’s not possible!”
Oh yes it is. Hubris weighs heavily on our faith in the “right” human policies to work magic forever and ever. So as long as the Fed follows the “right policy” and continues printing trillions of dollars out of thin air and buying bonds (and whatever else needs to be bought up to loft markets higher) then Dow 100,000 is in the bag.
Or not. The idea that human don’t control everything is anathema to a technocrat elite, and so when the inevitable reversal crashes assets, everyone will rush around looking for the human-action cause of the disaster and the human-action fix, so we can get back on track to Dow 100,000.
But the search for causes will be in vain, for extremes pendulum swings reach a limit and then swing back, eventually reaching the opposite extreme minus a bit of friction, which is minimal in a frictionless financial sector of printing trillions with keystrokes.
If you want evidence that the pendulum has swung as far as it can go, ponder this chart of billionaire wealth jacked higher by the Fed and its central bank cronies:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Can 20 years of asset deflation be compressed into a mere two years? Absolutely. The global financial system has been running a 20-year experiment in extremes that’s close to producing interesting results.
Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020. If we could measure hubris, it would be near-infinite. and the reversal of that near-infinite extreme will be one for the ages.
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
My new book is available! A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17, audiobook now available $17.46)
Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF).
The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction.
Recent Podcasts:
Parallels of the Great Fire of Rome 64 AD to Today (with host Richard Bonugli) (31:40)
AxisOfEasy Salon #34: Reclaiming Capital and Agency
My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts
My recent books:
A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-17--Winter Is Coming: 62% Of U.S. Small Business Owners “Fear The Worst Is Still To Come”

The official start of winter is just a few days away , and many small business owners are concerned that their businesses won ’ t be able to make it to the start of spring .
This is particularly true for those small businesses that rely on face to face interaction with the general public .
Restaurants , bars , gyms , coffee shops , hairdressers and independent retailers all over the nation were absolutely devastated by the first round of lockdowns , and now a new round of lockdowns is dealing death blows to countless businesses that had hoped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get back on their feet in 2021 .
Politicians such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo don ’ t seem to care that they are literally destroying millions of hopes and dreams .
If and when this pandemic finally ends , they will get to go on with their normal lives , but vast numbers of their constituents will not .
According to a brand new U.S. Chamber-MetLife poll of small businesses , just 40 percent of all U.S. small business owners “ believe their small businesses can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going right now , and a whopping 62 percent of them are convinced that “ the worst is still to come ” … Those numbers are consistent with what other recent surveys of small businesses have shown .
There are approximately 30 million small businesses in the United States today , and so that means that if even a third of them were forced to close down permanently we would lose 10 million small businesses .
Can you imagine what that would mean for the economy as a whole ?
That same U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that 74 percent of all U.S. small business owners “ need further government assistance to weather the pandemic ” … And when most of those small business owners say that they are in desperate need of help , they are not kidding .
According to the most recent Alignable rent survey , 35 percent of all small businesses in the United States “ couldn ’ t pay their rent this month ” … • • Several B2C industries are devastated – 61 % of restaurants can ’ t pay their rent this month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 42 % in November .
• 35 % of U.S. small businesses couldn ’ t pay their rent this month , up 3 % from 32 % in November .
• Beauty salons ( 46 % ) and travel/hospitality businesses ( 43 % ) round out the Top 3 most-affected businesses , but many others are in trouble .
• Looking at demographics , minority-owned businesses are suffering the most , as 49 % of them reported that they could not afford their rent in December .
That figure is 5 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Women-owned businesses are also struggling ( 38 % of those have not paid their rent , up 3 % from 35 % last month ) .
This isn ’ t what a “ recession ” looks like .
When more than a third of all small businesses in the entire nation can ’ t even pay rent , that is called an “ economic collapse ” .
We can see more evidence of economic collapse when we look at federal tax receipts .
Over the last 9 months , the drop in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record ” … In other words , we have never seen anything like this before .
And with each passing day , more Americans are falling out of the middle class and into poverty .
In fact , nearly 8 million more Americans have fallen into poverty just since the month of June… Things are getting worse , and it is happening very rapidly .
Everywhere you look there are tragic stories .
The other day I was deeply saddened when I heard that a 2-year-old boy had been abandoned at a Goodwill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are out of options , they can get very desperate , and desperate people do desperate things .
At this point , things are so bad that they are even setting up food banks on U.S. military bases… Theoretically , military bases shouldn ’ t need food banks because everyone in the military is getting a paycheck .
But at this point the cost of living is rising so much faster than paychecks are that even military families are starting to go hungry .
Of course Congress is “ feverishly ” working on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the suffering of the American people , but some Democrats are extremely upset that they are being forced to choose either enhanced unemployment benefits or $ 600 stimulus checks for the American people… Considering the fact that we are already 27.5 trillion dollars in debt , the truth is that we really can ’ t afford any of this .
But if we are in the process of liquidating the nation anyway , we might as well ask for the biggest checks that we can possibly get .
Sadly , nothing that our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our economic collapse from eventually getting a whole lot worse .
For the past several decades we have been on the greatest debt binge in the history of the human race , and now that bubble is in the process of bursting .
Those that are expecting life to “ return to normal ” at some point are going to be deeply disappointed , because the “ big meltdown ” has now started , and it appears that 2021 is going to be a really , really painful year .

by Michael Snyder
The official start of winter is just a few days away, and many small business owners are concerned that their businesses won’t be able to make it to the start of spring. This is particularly true for those small businesses that rely on face to face interaction with the general public. Restaurants, bars, gyms, coffee shops, hairdressers and independent retailers all over the nation were absolutely devastated by the first round of lockdowns, and now a new round of lockdowns is dealing death blows to countless businesses that had hoped to find a way to heal and get back on their feet in 2021. Politicians such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo don’t seem to care that they are literally destroying millions of hopes and dreams. If and when this pandemic finally ends, they will get to go on with their normal lives, but vast numbers of their constituents will not.
According to a brand new U.S. Chamber-MetLife poll of small businesses, just 40 percent of all U.S. small business owners “believe their small businesses can operate indefinitely” the way things are going right now, and a whopping 62 percent of them are convinced that “the worst is still to come”…
The quarterly poll found that the 62% of small-business owners fear that the worst is still to come with COVID-19’s economic impact. Only 40% said they believe their small businesses can operate indefinitely during the current business environment.
Those numbers are consistent with what other recent surveys of small businesses have shown.
There are approximately 30 million small businesses in the United States today, and so that means that if even a third of them were forced to close down permanently we would lose 10 million small businesses.
Can you imagine what that would mean for the economy as a whole?
That same U.S. Chamber-MetLife poll of small businesses also found that 74 percent of all U.S. small business owners “need further government assistance to weather the pandemic”…
A new U.S. Chamber-MetLife poll of small businesses taken from Oct. 30-Nov. 10 and released on Tuesday showed that 74% of the owners said they need further government assistance to weather the pandemic. That percentage rises to 81% for minority-owned businesses.
And when most of those small business owners say that they are in desperate need of help, they are not kidding.
According to the most recent Alignable rent survey, 35 percent of all small businesses in the United States “couldn’t pay their rent this month”…
Several B2C industries are devastated – 61% of restaurants can’t pay their rent this month. That’s up 19% from 42% in November. 35% of U.S. small businesses couldn’t pay their rent this month , up 3% from 32% in November. Beauty salons (46%) and travel/hospitality businesses (43%) round out the Top 3 most-affected businesses, but many others are in trouble. Looking at demographics, minority-owned businesses are suffering the most, as 49% of them reported that they could not afford their rent in December. That figure is 5% higher than it was in November. Women-owned businesses are also struggling (38% of those have not paid their rent, up 3% from 35% last month).
This isn’t what a “recession” looks like.
When more than a third of all small businesses in the entire nation can’t even pay rent, that is called an “economic collapse”.
We can see more evidence of economic collapse when we look at federal tax receipts.
Over the last 9 months, the drop in tax receipts “is the largest on record”…
The pandemic hit the economy in March, triggering widespread job loss and partial and full closing of many small businesses. In November, 9 months into the pandemic, federal gross withheld income tax receipts were off 13% from a year ago. That is roughly in line with the average decline of 15% recorded over the 9-month span, March through November. Checking the tax data records from the US Treasury the decline in tax receipts over the last 9 months is the largest on record. The only comparable period is the 14% drop in 2009 during the Great Financial Recession.
In other words, we have never seen anything like this before.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And with each passing day, more Americans are falling out of the middle class and into poverty.
In fact, nearly 8 million more Americans have fallen into poverty just since the month of June…
The U.S. poverty rate has surged over the past five months, with 7.8 million Americans falling into poverty, the latest indication of how deeply many are struggling after government aid dwindled. The poverty rate jumped to 11.7 percent in November, up 2.4 percentage points since June, according to new data released Wednesday by researchers at the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame.
Things are getting worse, and it is happening very rapidly.
Everywhere you look there are tragic stories. The other day I was deeply saddened when I heard that a 2-year-old boy had been abandoned at a Goodwill store. When people feel like they are out of options, they can get very desperate, and desperate people do desperate things.
At this point, things are so bad that they are even setting up food banks on U.S. military bases…
Fort Bragg, the largest military base in the United States, has all the trappings of a small American city: shopping centers, a barber shop and social clubs. In a sign of the times, it also has a food bank. This spring, the Y.M.C.A. on base — which started a food pantry last year to respond to the growing food insecurity among military families — saw a 40 percent increase in requests for groceries. During the same period, grocery requests to AmericaServes, a network that helps military families, jumped to the biggest service request in the organization’s history.
Theoretically, military bases shouldn’t need food banks because everyone in the military is getting a paycheck.
But at this point the cost of living is rising so much faster than paychecks are that even military families are starting to go hungry.
Of course Congress is “feverishly” working on a new stimulus package to help alleviate the suffering of the American people, but some Democrats are extremely upset that they are being forced to choose either enhanced unemployment benefits or $600 stimulus checks for the American people…
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez fiercely criticized the apparent trade-off to include a round of $600 stimulus checks at the expense of funding for enhanced unemployment insurance, calling it “inhumane.” “The fact that Republicans are forcing Dems to choose between stimulus money OR unemployment benefits, as if we couldn’t easily do both, is barbaric,” the New York congresswoman tweeted. “Do they know that people in red states are hungry too, or do they just not care?”
Considering the fact that we are already 27.5 trillion dollars in debt, the truth is that we really can’t afford any of this.
But if we are in the process of liquidating the nation anyway, we might as well ask for the biggest checks that we can possibly get.
Sadly, nothing that our leaders do now is going to stop our economic collapse from eventually getting a whole lot worse.
For the past several decades we have been on the greatest debt binge in the history of the human race, and now that bubble is in the process of bursting.
Those that are expecting life to “return to normal” at some point are going to be deeply disappointed, because the “big meltdown” has now started, and it appears that 2021 is going to be a really, really painful year.