investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--The Fed Is Fueling a Revolt That It Cannot Control

It ’ s not that hard to forecast a populist revolt against the parasitic class that ’ s grown obscenely wealthy as a direct result of Fed policies .
Under the tender care of the Federal Reserve , America ’ s wealth inequality has skyrocketed to new heights of obscenity as America ’ s billionaires feasted off the Fed ’ s recent stock market rally .
By some accounts , billionaire Jeff Bezos added $ 24 billion to his personal wealth in the past week or two as the Fed ’ s master game plan–push stocks higher , no matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of America ’ s wealth .
To get a handle on the wealth of the stock market ’ s billionaires , please scroll through this site : Wealth , shown to scale ( via Maoxian ) .
You ’ ll find that America ’ s private tech fortunes dwarf entire nations ’ GDP ( gross domestic product ) .
The driver of this fantastic concentration of private wealth is the stock market , the vast majority of which is owned by the top 10 % ( 85 % ) .
Within this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stocks , junk bonds , business equity and rental real estate is highly concentrated : the top 5 % own roughly two-third ’ s of America ’ s private-sector wealth , the top 1 % own 40 % and the top 0.1 % own 20 % .
( see chart below ) According to the financial media , the Federal Reserve ’ s super-power–pushing stocks higher no matter what–is the key to the Universe .
I beg to differ .
The story we ’ re told– “ don ’ t fight the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s power to push stocks higher is all that ’ s needed to keep the world in a good place–meaning in the hands of the parasitic few who own most of the stocks .
( Hiya doin ’ , Warren , Jeff , Bill , Mark… ) The Fed ’ s policies have created a world in which the top 10 % skim an ever-increasing share of the wealth and income and the bottom 90 % get more debt .
This is a world that is terribly out of balance , as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 90 % who own little more than the leftover crumbs of America ’ s wealth borrowing more every year to buy more iPhones , etc.
, even as their incomes continue stagnating year after year .
The Fed ’ s fix is to lower the interest rate that banks and corporations pay to borrow money from the Fed while interest rates paid by the bottom 90 % remain much higher .
The Fed ’ s plan is for the bottom 90 % to pay a few bucks less for the mortgage so they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The dirty little secret is that America ’ s economy implodes once debt stops expanding .
The entire machine is completely and totally dependent on debt expanding , even as the incomes of the bottom 90 % stagnate .
If households and enterprises even reduce their borrowing , i.e .
the rate of expansion declines , consumption and bank income crater , and then the defaults explode higher as the declines in consumption trigger lay-offs , business failures and defaults on the ever-rising mountain of debt .
The Fed ’ s sole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the few at the expense of the many .
It can ’ t force creditworthy households and enterprises to borrow money they don ’ t need , nor can it generate creditworthy borrowers out of thin air , the way it creates dollars out of thin air .
It can ’ t force banks to loan money to households and enterprises that are not creditworthy , i.e .
are very likely to default .
It can ’ t stop the implosion of the U.S. economy once debt expansion reverses , lay-off accelerate and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Fed can ’ t magically make zombie companies solvent , nor can it magically make unprofitable companies profitable .
All the Fed can do is fuel a revolt of the bottom 90 % against their parasitic masters , the Fed , and the class the Fed has enriched with their free money for financiers and stock buybacks .
It ’ s not that hard to forecast a populist revolt against the parasitic class that ’ s grown obscenely wealthy as a direct result of Fed policies while millions lose their jobs and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The common-sense demand would be : No more bailouts of Wall Street , which includes the big banks , the financiers , the corporations buying back $ 5 trillion of their own stocks to enrich the few at the top , and the corporations kept afloat with junk bonds and other financial trickery funded by the Fed .
Yet bailing out Wall Street is the Fed ’ s only plan and only super-power .
It ’ s the only reason the Fed exists : the parasitic class would wither away without the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was once known as “ the free market.
” Now the only thing that ’ s free is the Fed ’ s handouts to the parasites at the top .
Let ’ s be clear about one thing : the Fed can fuel the revolt but it can ’ t stop it or control it .
Its super-power is limited to 1 ) enriching the parasitic class and 2 ) via that distortion , undermining democracy .
( I describe this dynamic in greater detail in my book Resistance , Revolution , Liberation @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by Charles Hugh-Smith
It’s not that hard to forecast a populist revolt against the parasitic class that’s grown obscenely wealthy as a direct result of Fed policies.
Under the tender care of the Federal Reserve, America’s wealth inequality has skyrocketed to new heights of obscenity as America’s billionaires feasted off the Fed’s recent stock market rally. By some accounts, billionaire Jeff Bezos added $24 billion to his personal wealth in the past week or two as the Fed’s master game plan–push stocks higher, no matter what–has further enriched the few who own most of America’s wealth.
To get a handle on the wealth of the stock market’s billionaires, please scroll through this site: Wealth, shown to scale (via Maoxian). You’ll find that America’s private tech fortunes dwarf entire nations’ GDP (gross domestic product).
The driver of this fantastic concentration of private wealth is the stock market, the vast majority of which is owned by the top 10% (85%). Within this top 10%, the ownership of stocks, junk bonds, business equity and rental real estate is highly concentrated: the top 5% own roughly two-third’s of America’s private-sector wealth, the top 1% own 40% and the top 0.1% own 20%. (see chart below)
According to the financial media, the Federal Reserve’s super-power–pushing stocks higher no matter what–is the key to the Universe. I beg to differ. The story we’re told–“don’t fight the Fed”– is that the Fed’s power to push stocks higher is all that’s needed to keep the world in a good place–meaning in the hands of the parasitic few who own most of the stocks. (Hiya doin’, Warren, Jeff, Bill, Mark…)
The Fed’s policies have created a world in which the top 10% skim an ever-increasing share of the wealth and income and the bottom 90% get more debt. This is a world that is terribly out of balance, as it depends totally and completely on the bottom 90% who own little more than the leftover crumbs of America’s wealth borrowing more every year to buy more iPhones, etc., even as their incomes continue stagnating year after year.
The Fed’s fix is to lower the interest rate that banks and corporations pay to borrow money from the Fed while interest rates paid by the bottom 90% remain much higher. The Fed’s plan is for the bottom 90% to pay a few bucks less for the mortgage so they can pay more interest on other debt.
The dirty little secret is that America’s economy implodes once debt stops expanding. The entire machine is completely and totally dependent on debt expanding, even as the incomes of the bottom 90% stagnate. If households and enterprises even reduce their borrowing, i.e. the rate of expansion declines, consumption and bank income crater, and then the defaults explode higher as the declines in consumption trigger lay-offs, business failures and defaults on the ever-rising mountain of debt.
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The Fed’s sole power turns out to be further enriching the few at the expense of the many. It can’t force creditworthy households and enterprises to borrow money they don’t need, nor can it generate creditworthy borrowers out of thin air, the way it creates dollars out of thin air.
It can’t force banks to loan money to households and enterprises that are not creditworthy, i.e. are very likely to default.
It can’t stop the implosion of the U.S. economy once debt expansion reverses, lay-off accelerate and insolvency triggers an avalanche of defaults.
The Fed can’t magically make zombie companies solvent, nor can it magically make unprofitable companies profitable.
All the Fed can do is fuel a revolt of the bottom 90% against their parasitic masters, the Fed, and the class the Fed has enriched with their free money for financiers and stock buybacks.
It’s not that hard to forecast a populist revolt against the parasitic class that’s grown obscenely wealthy as a direct result of Fed policies while millions lose their jobs and what little financial security they once held. The common-sense demand would be: No more bailouts of Wall Street, which includes the big banks, the financiers, the corporations buying back $5 trillion of their own stocks to enrich the few at the top, and the corporations kept afloat with junk bonds and other financial trickery funded by the Fed.
Yet bailing out Wall Street is the Fed’s only plan and only super-power. It’s the only reason the Fed exists: the parasitic class would wither away without the Fed’s constant distortions of what was once known as “the free market.” Now the only thing that’s free is the Fed’s handouts to the parasites at the top.
Let’s be clear about one thing: the Fed can fuel the revolt but it can’t stop it or control it. Its super-power is limited to 1) enriching the parasitic class and 2) via that distortion, undermining democracy. (I describe this dynamic in greater detail in my book Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change)


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--What I Learned During the COVID Crisis

What I Learned During the COVID Crisis

The COVID-19 crisis has affected just about every family in the United States in some way or another .
All of our situations are unique and everyone I ’ ve spoken to has learned some lessons about their levels of preparedness .
Some of those lessons are unconventional but valuable nonetheless .
There are a whole lot of things you can ’ t learn from a book or a blog .
Here are the things I ’ ve learned .
I began writing about this virus back in January when it was announced that the entire city of Wuhan was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were under stay at home orders .
With that many people under a mandatory lockdown , I was firmly convinced that this had potential global ramifications .
I had come back from Europe to attend a funeral in early January and was supposed to return on January 28th .
After doing the research for the article mentioned above , I rescheduled my flight for March 28th and settled in with my youngest daughter at her apartment to help out with the bills .
We immediately began stocking up .
A lot of folks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – a few here on my website but more so on other sites that republished my work .
I ’ m no stranger to being called crazy – I ’ m in the preparedness industry and I like guns , so right there , the mainstream media sees me as a lunatic .
It no longer bothers me and I was convinced that this was going to be a big deal .
Every day from January 23rd to the present , I ’ ve spent hours researching as this pandemic has unfolded .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ been correct , but here we are , still in lockdown in many parts of the country .
You can prepare fast if you ’ re aware before other folks are .
I had sold or donated nearly everything that my daughters didn ’ t want before I took off on an open-ended trip to Europe last fall .
The other items were divided up between my two girls .
So while the daughter with whom I stayed still had a few things , like firearms , water filters , etc.
, the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of January , I was pretty sure that we were going to see mandatory quarantines or lockdowns here and I began stocking up .
It ’ s important to note that at this point , you could still buy anything you wanted or needed .
I grabbed some extra masks and gloves but most of my focus was on food and other everyday supplies .
By the end of February , I was pretty content with the amount of supplies we had .
I had spent as little as possible on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of my budget on shelf-stable items like canned goods , pasta , and rice .
For about $ 600 , we accumulated a supply that would see us through a minimum of 3 months without leaving the house .
I figured , if it turned out that I had overreacted , my daughter would use the food anyway .
I also started a personal spending freeze at the end of January .
If it wasn ’ t an item we needed to become better prepared , I didn ’ t spend a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back a few months ’ worth of expenses while still stocking up .
It helped that my daughter was living thrifty in a less expensive apartment with utilities included .
I was very concerned about things like cash flow and it turns out , this has been a huge problem for a lot of people .
You can ’ t always have the “ ideal ” situation .
There were a lot of things about my situation that were less than ideal .
But that ’ s probably true in a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the reality of your situation instead of endlessly wishing it was different or feeling that it ’ s hopeless .
“ Less than ideal ” does not mean that all hope is lost .
First , there was the situation of living arrangements .
I have a daughter in Canada and a daughter in the US .
My older daughter in Canada has been working longer and was better established .
My younger daughter , who lives in the US , was new to the workforce and didn ’ t have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her to help out financially .
Her apartment is in a lower-middle-class residential area of the city where she works .
Thankfully , it is a two-bedroom and I only brought with me two suitcases .
Living in an apartment without much of a yard during this kind of event is not something I would have chosen , given time to seek alternatives .
But we all know this crept up fast .
Moving was not an option .
I focused on hardening the apartment with plywood to put up at the windows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly if needed , and sturdier locks .
We got some quarantine warning signs that we could post if all hell broke loose as a potential deterrent , and I set up spotlights in the front yard .
Currently , they face the stairs to the front door , but in a bad situation , they could be turned around to illuminate anyone coming up to the house instead .
I bought more ammo for our firearms and we sat down together to work through potential scenarios .
We developed a “ fatal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added “ stumbling blocks ” in the front hall that could be shoved in front of the door to slow down an advance .
( Just cardboard boxes filled with hardcover books – nothing fancy . )
We made friends with the other family who lives in the building while maintaining our OPSEC .
It ’ s always good to have allies and they have a better line of sight from their upper apartment .
Normally , I would have bought loads of organic food and preserved it myself , but early in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question of whether or not we ’ d have power throughout the emergency and there simply wasn ’ t enough time at this late date .
My stockpile is not ideal – lots of storebought canned goods and carbs like pasta and rice – but it ’ s filling and versatile .
And most of all , it ’ s what was readily available .
I was able to grab cases of canned fruits and vegetables and canned ravioli when it was cheap and abundant .
So while it isn ’ t our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we ’ re fortunate to have it .
We ’ ve continued to hit the store weekly for foods that are more “ normal ” but can easily shift to the stockpile if it becomes necessary .
As you can see there are a lot of things that aren ’ t ideal from a prepper ’ s point of view , but when disaster strikes , you have to adapt .
So if your situation isn ’ t perfect , don ’ t just throw your hands up in the air and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s okay to have feelings .
While I ’ ve been confident in following my intuition regarding this scenario , I can ’ t say that I have never had any doubts whatsoever .
This has been an extraordinary situation .
We ’ ve all suffered losses : losses of loved ones , losses of jobs , losses of dreams .
The uncertainty of what lies ahead is difficult , even for someone who has been prepping and researching disasters for decades .
This is hard .
It ’ s not to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t been harder or haven ’ t resulted in more loss .
It ’ s not a contest .
We don ’ t have to compare and invalidate how this had made us feel .
I ’ ve even felt like this can ’ t possibly be happening .
I know that it is happening but there ’ s still that little part of me that was shocked to see it occur .
However you feel about something , it ’ s valid .
We ’ re all allowed to have feelings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feelings paralyze you .
No , I ’ m not saying go back to college and get a degree .
I ’ m talking about life education .
Over the past years , I ’ ve spent time and money learning from experts in many fields and this has helped me more than I can describe .
I ’ ve taken in-person courses on the following : • Marketing ( never underestimate the power of using words to motivate others ) • I learned to raise and butcher animals for food • Selco @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Croatia I ’ ve taken online courses too , in particular , Selco ’ s SHTF Boot Camp and One Year in Hell .
These things have changed my mindset so much that I ’ m not the same person I was before I took these courses .
I have a different understanding now of violence and the cues that lead up to it .
I know a lot more about food self-reliance and can adapt those skills to other things .
I can protect myself and the people I love on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I learned in Croatia ?
Taking that course from Selco and Toby is by far the very best investment I ’ ve ever made in my own preparedness .
Most importantly , I learned that survival and preparedness are two different skill sets , and having both of them provides you with the best of both worlds .
I can use survival skills to enhance my level of preparedness even if I don ’ t have a one-year supply of food .
And I was able to use the experience of spending time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own experience to spot trouble coming a lot sooner than others in my area .
I would never have been able to be flexible enough to get prepared this quickly without the things I learned from Selco and Toby .
I wouldn ’ t have been as ready for potential violence .
You can read all you want about societal breakdowns but until you actually stand in the crumbling building amidst the debris hearing a first-person account , you don ’ t really understand it .
Seeing the end result of war and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality check about how bad things can get .
I can ’ t put a price tag on the value that I received from that investment and when new courses open up again , I suggest you go if you can at all .
Their real-world observations will change your perspective on just about everything you think you know .
There are many experts out there who have learned from their own experiences .
Never think you already know too much to learn anything from them because I promise you , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be far more prepared to face the potential violence and hardships of future scenarios when you learn from those who have been down these roads .
The value of things changes .
Before this , who would have thought that toilet paper would be the new gold ?
Or that there would be countless articles all over the media about toilet paper substitutes ?
One thing that I learned is that the value of things changes dramatically in unusual situations .
Store shelves were stripped bare in a matter of days , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , inventory has never really recovered .
People had to improvise when their first choices were gone by choosing from the things that were remaining .
The shortages we ’ ve faced weren ’ t really the ones I expected .
Bleach , yeast , and paper products reached the top of everyone ’ s to-buy lists .
I suppose I assumed that if the stores were still open , we wouldn ’ t be facing limited quantities of items like meat and pasta .
Instead of nurturing non-food-bearing plants , people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nobody really cares about buying new clothes right now or about frivolous new shoes , because where are you going to wear them ?
Instead , there ’ s a run on N95 masks and seeds .
Many people have zeroed in on the real necessities and that ’ s where their money is going .
People may not be who you think they are .
One thing that was particularly eye-opening was the actions of others .
There were close friends and family members who proved that they were not the people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things hit the fan .
Some of the reactions of people about whom I care were incredibly disappointing and even downright shocking .
Folks who I thought would be ready to roll with whatever situation might come stunned me by refusing to accept what was happening because it wasn ’ t the apocalypse for which they ’ d prepared .
I also encountered people who were not within my immediate family and friends who surprised me .
This situation was certainly a study in human behavior .
They surprised me with their greed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After hearing about how they spoke of others who ’ d been wise enough to stock up ahead of time , with ugly words like “ hoarder ” and “ selfish , ” I was very glad I ’ d never confided my preparedness efforts in them .
I saw people display incredibly short fuses and respond with rage over the slightest little thing .
I saw others who took this opportunity to behave with increased violence and glimpses of the potential predator inside them .
Of course , like all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these things .
But seeing it in action was entirely different .
I ’ ve caught myself a few times thinking , “ Wow , I wish we still had our farm by the creek back in California ” and “ the last house we lived in would have been far better suited for this situation ” but I stop myself .
There ’ s no point in having regrets .
I ’ m glad that I gave my daughter the chance to get her feet on the ground as an adult , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time I did in Europe , even if it means that I had to start from scratch to get prepped for this event .
Other people have told me that they have spent time wishing they had never moved from a more suitable place or they regret frivolous purchases they made when that money would have been better spent on preps .
Look , we all probably could have made different decisions in the past that would lead to more stability right now , but many of those decisions resulted in other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new friends , or an improved mindset .
Life is way too short to have regrets , and if you ’ re looking backward , you won ’ t see what ’ s right in front of you .
And in an uncertain world , that can be very dangerous .
If there are things you ’ ve been putting off doing until some future date when everything is “ perfect ” then stop .
One of the biggest lessons I ’ ve learned is that delaying things until the “ right time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I am so glad I took those classes I mentioned above .
I ’ m so glad that I spent months in Greece , Macedonia , and Montenegro .
And I ’ m absolutely returning to Europe when the situation allows it .
I learned a kind of flexibility wandering around countries where I didn ’ t speak the language that I never had before .
I can sleep anywhere .
I can quickly identify resources and navigate my way through new places .
I learned some thrifty habits that are cultural norms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed my mindset , made me more adaptable , and built my confidence .
Your goals and dreams may look a lot different than mine , but when the chance returns to reach them , do it .
Get that piece of property .
Start building that cabin .
Grow that garden even if it ’ s in pots on your balcony .
Explore those places you ’ ve always wanted to see .
Start the business .
Write the book .
Buy that prep that you ’ ve been thinking about it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available .
There is no perfect time .
Life is for living , not for staying in your safety bubble that looks an awful lot like a rut .
Even life after a pandemic .
What did you learn ?
Of course this isn ’ t over yet , and I ’ m sure there are more lessons still to come .
But these are the things I ’ ve learned so far .
I find that we can all experience the same situation yet each of us comes away with something different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What lessons did you learn during this crisis ?
How will it change your preparedness efforts in the future ?
What was the biggest surprise ?
Please share your experiences in the comments .
Daisy Luther writes about current events , preparedness , frugality , voluntaryism , and the pursuit of liberty on her website , The Organic Prepper .
She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site , PreppersDailyNews.com .
Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You can find her on Facebook , Pinterest , and Twitter .

by Daisy Luther
The COVID-19 crisis has affected just about every family in the United States in some way or another. All of our situations are unique and everyone I’ve spoken to has learned some lessons about their levels of preparedness. Some of those lessons are unconventional but valuable nonetheless. There are a whole lot of things you can’t learn from a book or a blog.
Here are the things I’ve learned.
Trust your instincts.
I began writing about this virus back in January when it was announced that the entire city of Wuhan was being locked down and millions of people were under stay at home orders. With that many people under a mandatory lockdown, I was firmly convinced that this had potential global ramifications.
I had come back from Europe to attend a funeral in early January and was supposed to return on January 28th. After doing the research for the article mentioned above, I rescheduled my flight for March 28th and settled in with my youngest daughter at her apartment to help out with the bills. We immediately began stocking up.
A lot of folks at that time said I was crazy – a few here on my website but more so on other sites that republished my work. I’m no stranger to being called crazy – I’m in the preparedness industry and I like guns, so right there, the mainstream media sees me as a lunatic. It no longer bothers me and I was convinced that this was going to be a big deal.
Every day from January 23rd to the present, I’ve spent hours researching as this pandemic has unfolded. I sincerely wish that I had not been correct, but here we are, still in lockdown in many parts of the country.
You can prepare fast if you’re aware before other folks are.
I had sold or donated nearly everything that my daughters didn’t want before I took off on an open-ended trip to Europe last fall. The other items were divided up between my two girls. So while the daughter with whom I stayed still had a few things, like firearms, water filters, etc., the stockpile was pretty much gone.
By the end of January, I was pretty sure that we were going to see mandatory quarantines or lockdowns here and I began stocking up. It’s important to note that at this point, you could still buy anything you wanted or needed. I grabbed some extra masks and gloves but most of my focus was on food and other everyday supplies. By the end of February, I was pretty content with the amount of supplies we had. I had spent as little as possible on “right now food” and focused most of my budget on shelf-stable items like canned goods, pasta, and rice.
For about $600, we accumulated a supply that would see us through a minimum of 3 months without leaving the house. I figured, if it turned out that I had overreacted, my daughter would use the food anyway.
I also started a personal spending freeze at the end of January. If it wasn’t an item we needed to become better prepared, I didn’t spend a dime. I was able to put back a few months’ worth of expenses while still stocking up. It helped that my daughter was living thrifty in a less expensive apartment with utilities included. I was very concerned about things like cash flow and it turns out, this has been a huge problem for a lot of people.
You can’t always have the “ideal” situation.
There were a lot of things about my situation that were less than ideal. But that’s probably true in a lot of cases. You just have to adapt to the reality of your situation instead of endlessly wishing it was different or feeling that it’s hopeless. “Less than ideal” does not mean that all hope is lost.
First, there was the situation of living arrangements. I have a daughter in Canada and a daughter in the US. My older daughter in Canada has been working longer and was better established. My younger daughter, who lives in the US, was new to the workforce and didn’t have a lot of money so I stayed with her to help out financially. Her apartment is in a lower-middle-class residential area of the city where she works. Thankfully, it is a two-bedroom and I only brought with me two suitcases.
Living in an apartment without much of a yard during this kind of event is not something I would have chosen, given time to seek alternatives. But we all know this crept up fast. Moving was not an option. I focused on hardening the apartment with plywood to put up at the windows, tripwires that could be set up quickly if needed, and sturdier locks. We got some quarantine warning signs that we could post if all hell broke loose as a potential deterrent, and I set up spotlights in the front yard. Currently, they face the stairs to the front door, but in a bad situation, they could be turned around to illuminate anyone coming up to the house instead.
I bought more ammo for our firearms and we sat down together to work through potential scenarios. We developed a “fatal funnel” in the front hallway and added “stumbling blocks” in the front hall that could be shoved in front of the door to slow down an advance. (Just cardboard boxes filled with hardcover books – nothing fancy.)
We made friends with the other family who lives in the building while maintaining our OPSEC. It’s always good to have allies and they have a better line of sight from their upper apartment.
Normally, I would have bought loads of organic food and preserved it myself, but early in the crisis, there was still a question of whether or not we’d have power throughout the emergency and there simply wasn’t enough time at this late date. My stockpile is not ideal – lots of storebought canned goods and carbs like pasta and rice – but it’s filling and versatile. And most of all, it’s what was readily available. I was able to grab cases of canned fruits and vegetables and canned ravioli when it was cheap and abundant.
So while it isn’t our normal diet or even our normal preps, we’re fortunate to have it. We’ve continued to hit the store weekly for foods that are more “normal” but can easily shift to the stockpile if it becomes necessary.
As you can see there are a lot of things that aren’t ideal from a prepper’s point of view, but when disaster strikes, you have to adapt. So if your situation isn’t perfect, don’t just throw your hands up in the air and give up – ADAPT.
It’s okay to have feelings.
While I’ve been confident in following my intuition regarding this scenario, I can’t say that I have never had any doubts whatsoever. This has been an extraordinary situation.
We’ve all suffered losses: losses of loved ones, losses of jobs, losses of dreams. The uncertainty of what lies ahead is difficult, even for someone who has been prepping and researching disasters for decades. This is hard. It’s not to say that other situations that have occurred haven’t been harder or haven’t resulted in more loss. It’s not a contest. We don’t have to compare and invalidate how this had made us feel.
I’ve even felt like this can’t possibly be happening. I know that it is happening but there’s still that little part of me that was shocked to see it occur.
However you feel about something, it’s valid. We’re all allowed to have feelings. Just don’t let those feelings paralyze you.
Invest in education.
No, I’m not saying go back to college and get a degree. I’m talking about life education.
Over the past years, I’ve spent time and money learning from experts in many fields and this has helped me more than I can describe. I’ve taken in-person courses on the following:
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Gardening and food preservation from a county extension office
A violence de-escalation course
Krav Maga
Marketing (never underestimate the power of using words to motivate others)
I learned to raise and butcher animals for food
Numerous firearms courses
Selco’s Urban Survival Course for Women in Croatia
A defensive knife course
I’ve taken online courses too, in particular, Selco’s SHTF Boot Camp and One Year in Hell.
These things have changed my mindset so much that I’m not the same person I was before I took these courses. I have a different understanding now of violence and the cues that lead up to it. I know a lot more about food self-reliance and can adapt those skills to other things. I can protect myself and the people I love on many different levels.
And the things I learned in Croatia? Taking that course from Selco and Toby is by far the very best investment I’ve ever made in my own preparedness. Most importantly, I learned that survival and preparedness are two different skill sets, and having both of them provides you with the best of both worlds. I can use survival skills to enhance my level of preparedness even if I don’t have a one-year supply of food. And I was able to use the experience of spending time in war-torn areas with Selco narrating his own experience to spot trouble coming a lot sooner than others in my area.
I would never have been able to be flexible enough to get prepared this quickly without the things I learned from Selco and Toby. I wouldn’t have been as ready for potential violence. You can read all you want about societal breakdowns but until you actually stand in the crumbling building amidst the debris hearing a first-person account, you don’t really understand it. Seeing the end result of war and genocide was eye-opening, and provides a reality check about how bad things can get. I can’t put a price tag on the value that I received from that investment and when new courses open up again, I suggest you go if you can at all. Their real-world observations will change your perspective on just about everything you think you know.
There are many experts out there who have learned from their own experiences. Never think you already know too much to learn anything from them because I promise you, there are things you never even considered. You will be far more prepared to face the potential violence and hardships of future scenarios when you learn from those who have been down these roads.
The value of things changes.
Before this, who would have thought that toilet paper would be the new gold? Or that there would be countless articles all over the media about toilet paper substitutes?
One thing that I learned is that the value of things changes dramatically in unusual situations.
Store shelves were stripped bare in a matter of days, and in many places around the country, inventory has never really recovered. People had to improvise when their first choices were gone by choosing from the things that were remaining.
The shortages we’ve faced weren’t really the ones I expected. Bleach, yeast, and paper products reached the top of everyone’s to-buy lists. I suppose I assumed that if the stores were still open, we wouldn’t be facing limited quantities of items like meat and pasta. Instead of nurturing non-food-bearing plants, people are nurturing their sourdough starters and seedlings.
Nobody really cares about buying new clothes right now or about frivolous new shoes, because where are you going to wear them? Instead, there’s a run on N95 masks and seeds. Many people have zeroed in on the real necessities and that’s where their money is going.
People may not be who you think they are.
One thing that was particularly eye-opening was the actions of others.
There were close friends and family members who proved that they were not the people I wanted in my inner circle if things hit the fan. Some of the reactions of people about whom I care were incredibly disappointing and even downright shocking. Folks who I thought would be ready to roll with whatever situation might come stunned me by refusing to accept what was happening because it wasn’t the apocalypse for which they’d prepared.
I also encountered people who were not within my immediate family and friends who surprised me. This situation was certainly a study in human behavior. They surprised me with their greed, anger, and sense of entitlement. After hearing about how they spoke of others who’d been wise enough to stock up ahead of time, with ugly words like “hoarder” and “selfish,” I was very glad I’d never confided my preparedness efforts in them. I saw people display incredibly short fuses and respond with rage over the slightest little thing. I saw others who took this opportunity to behave with increased violence and glimpses of the potential predator inside them.
Of course, like all of you, I’d read about these things. But seeing it in action was entirely different.
Don’t have regrets.
I’ve caught myself a few times thinking, “Wow, I wish we still had our farm by the creek back in California” and “the last house we lived in would have been far better suited for this situation” but I stop myself. There’s no point in having regrets. I’m glad that I gave my daughter the chance to get her feet on the ground as an adult, and I am very happy I spent the time I did in Europe, even if it means that I had to start from scratch to get prepped for this event.
Other people have told me that they have spent time wishing they had never moved from a more suitable place or they regret frivolous purchases they made when that money would have been better spent on preps. Look, we all probably could have made different decisions in the past that would lead to more stability right now, but many of those decisions resulted in other types of benefits: great experiences, new friends, or an improved mindset.
Life is way too short to have regrets, and if you’re looking backward, you won’t see what’s right in front of you. And in an uncertain world, that can be very dangerous.
Don’t put things off.
If there are things you’ve been putting off doing until some future date when everything is “perfect” then stop. One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned is that delaying things until the “right time” presents itself is a mistake.
I am so glad I took those classes I mentioned above. I’m so glad that I spent months in Greece, Macedonia, and Montenegro. And I’m absolutely returning to Europe when the situation allows it. I learned a kind of flexibility wandering around countries where I didn’t speak the language that I never had before. I can sleep anywhere. I can quickly identify resources and navigate my way through new places. I learned some thrifty habits that are cultural norms in the Balkans. Those experiences completely changed my mindset, made me more adaptable, and built my confidence.
Your goals and dreams may look a lot different than mine, but when the chance returns to reach them, do it. Get that piece of property. Start building that cabin. Grow that garden even if it’s in pots on your balcony. Explore those places you’ve always wanted to see. Start the business. Write the book. Buy that prep that you’ve been thinking about it because tomorrow it may no longer be available.
There is no perfect time.
Life is for living, not for staying in your safety bubble that looks an awful lot like a rut. Even life after a pandemic.
What did you learn?
Of course this isn’t over yet, and I’m sure there are more lessons still to come. But these are the things I’ve learned so far.
I find that we can all experience the same situation yet each of us comes away with something different. So, I’m curious. What lessons did you learn during this crisis? How will it change your preparedness efforts in the future? What was the biggest surprise? Please share your experiences in the comments.
About Daisy
Daisy Luther writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company. You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--The Output Gap Problem

The Output Gap Problem

The new pandemic economic era has brought some new features to our lives but some things have remained the same or as The Four Tops put it .
It is also an example of how once some people get wedded to a concept no amount if reality can shake them from it .
Or if you prefer a type of institutional group think where they are so busy telling each other that they are clever and intelligent they are then unable to accept that they have been consistently wrong .
That is usually associated with people who via their circumstances @ @ @ @ @ @ @ error .
Let me see if you can guess it from this reference in the Financial Times ?
Some might think that not being able to measure something is quite a hurdle !
In some circumstances like a pandemic we are still learning because it is new but this issue has been round for decades .
Another warning klaxon is fired as we note that some consider it is not a thing as surely it should be clear .
We see a potential angle for the FT as one impact of its Japanese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong supporter of stimulus .
Anyway as I am sure some and maybe many of you have guessed here it is .
As you can see they are unable to resist loading a factual statement with value judgements .
This is especially disappointing from two of its better journalists ( Izabella Kaminska and Claire Jones ) which reminds me that the better ones are usually women .
The confusion continues here .
Again they are merging two concepts which highlights the confusion .
Has supply capacity been destroyed ?
Yes for example if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK we may be shifting to us going forwards with Heathrow but Gatwick being closed for example .
That would be quite a change and may not be that literal but also some examples of that are already happening .
On a personal level I guess it is bad for me ( noisy planes overhead ) but good for the aunt I spoke to yesterday as she lives near Gatwick as there wont be any over her .
Although of course the economic effects will be the opposite of that .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
In the end that is always the problem as supporters end up echoing Alice In Wonderland .
Let me however agree with the authors on this point as frankly some of the analysis suggesting this has been laughable .
The idea that we would rebound like Zebedee from the Magic Roundabout always was silly as this morning in the UK has demonstrated .
From the BBC .
Those that can return are trying to figure out how they can ?
It will take a while and perhaps places will begin with half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example of a policy error from my home country as it tried to implement output gap theory .
So if we jump into Doctor Who ’ s TARDIS and go back to the summer of 2013 here is the Bank of England .
The choice of words “ margin of slack ” is/are significant but please park that for a moment as we check what that meant in practice .
They used “ margin of slack ” as explicitly using the phrase “ output gap ” had failed .
The UK had one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ target so it was a bit of a laughing stock .
As they are slow learners they kept the policy and changed the language used instead .
Next they used the employment rate because using GDP had failed .
The problem was that the “ unemployment rate ” was an even worse measure than GDP !
There is some good news here as the UK labour market improved quickly but the Bank of England was left with a whole pack of eggs on its face .
This matters as people made real decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see whether how much you regarded 7 % as a threshold there was also this .
So when it went below 4 % as it later did in the UK you might have expected Bank Rate to have been raised several times to say 2.5 % .
I will just leave that there… .
Returning to GDP as the authors of the FT piece have there are other problems .
The first is that it was abandoned as a signal for this sort of thing because it failed and indeed sailed utterly .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ plenty of grounds to argue it will do even worse now .
A lot of the issues come around the fact that it only counts things that are paid for .
If people work from home more they are likely to use the commuting time gained to do more for themselves .
An example of this sort of thing is one of my neighbours who due to the situation did not get a repair ( wo ) man in when his washing machine broke he ordered a new motor and fitted it himself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower GDP .
Some might be able to do more of their own childcare and so on .
But we seem to keep finding supporters of the output gap no matter how often it fails or as The Eagles put it .

by Shaun Richards
The new pandemic economic era has brought some new features to our lives but some things have remained the same or as The Four Tops put it.
Now it’s the same old song
But with a different meaning
Since you been gone
It is also an example of how once some people get wedded to a concept no amount if reality can shake them from it. Or if you prefer a type of institutional group think where they are so busy telling each other that they are clever and intelligent they are then unable to accept that they have been consistently wrong. That is usually associated with people who via their circumstances are insulated from the effects of the error.
Let me see if you can guess it from this reference in the Financial Times?
One reason the measure often gets overlooked in mainstream headlines is because it doesn’t sound all that consequential. Yet it is. Arguably more so than ever. Encumbering its popularity, however, is the fact it’s not always universally considered to be a thing. Saltwater-type economists (a.k.a the stimulus inclined) are far more partial to backing its theoretical existence than fresh water austerity types because it helps them justify more government spending. Added to that, it’s also notoriously difficult to measure in real time.
Some might think that not being able to measure something is quite a hurdle! In some circumstances like a pandemic we are still learning because it is new but this issue has been round for decades. Another warning klaxon is fired as we note that some consider it is not a thing as surely it should be clear. We see a potential angle for the FT as one impact of its Japanese ownership is that it has become a strong supporter of stimulus.
Anyway as I am sure some and maybe many of you have guessed here it is.
In its simplest terms, the output gap measures the difference between actual output (or GDP) and potential output (or potential GDP). Since this gap illustrates how much better the economy could be faring at any given time had whatever demand shock which slowed growth not occurred, it indicates the theoretical excess supply capacity in the system. Whenever output is running under potential output, there is said to be economic slack, which supposedly justifies additional stimulus as the slack is the factor that is likely to keep price inflation at bay. Or so the theory goes.
As you can see they are unable to resist loading a factual statement with value judgements. This is especially disappointing from two of its better journalists ( Izabella Kaminska and Claire Jones) which reminds me that the better ones are usually women. The confusion continues here.
However, if lockdown-type measures are to persist for up to two years — as is increasingly thought — the impact would be not only an upper double-digit trillion bill in terms of overall economic losses, but could also destroy supply capacity and potential GDP. The longer the lockdowns last, the graver the supply-side impact is likely to be.
Again they are merging two concepts which highlights the confusion. Has supply capacity been destroyed? Yes for example if we think of the airline industry in the UK we may be shifting to us going forwards with Heathrow but Gatwick being closed for example. That would be quite a change and may not be that literal but also some examples of that are already happening. On a personal level I guess it is bad for me ( noisy planes overhead) but good for the aunt I spoke to yesterday as she lives near Gatwick as there wont be any over her. Although of course the economic effects will be the opposite of that.
However “potential GDP” means what exactly? In the end that is always the problem as supporters end up echoing Alice In Wonderland.
“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’ ’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
Let me however agree with the authors on this point as frankly some of the analysis suggesting this has been laughable.
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This is important because so much private and public policy is now being determined by the notion that the economy can be easily stop-started without any real long-term negative consequences. It’s this sort of thinking that is backing the V-shaped recovery argument, which in turn is justifying putting the economy’s needs second to the needs of saving lives (whether rightly or wrongly, we won’t and don’t want to speculate).
The idea that we would rebound like Zebedee from the Magic Roundabout always was silly as this morning in the UK has demonstrated. From the BBC.
Business groups have called for clarity on what will need to change in the workplace as Boris Johnson unveils a “conditional plan” to reopen society. “Businesses need their practical questions answered so they can plan to restart, rebuild and renew,” said the British Chambers of Commerce. The prime minister said those who could not work from home should be “actively encouraged to go to work” in England.
Those that can return are trying to figure out how they can? It will take a while and perhaps places will begin with half production.
Comment
Let me give you an example of a policy error from my home country as it tried to implement output gap theory. So if we jump into Doctor Who’s TARDIS and go back to the summer of 2013 here is the Bank of England.
In essence, the MPC judges that, until the margin of slack within the economy has narrowed significantly.
The choice of words “margin of slack” is/are significant but please park that for a moment as we check what that meant in practice.
At its meeting on 1 August 2013, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed its intention not to
raise Bank Rate from its current level of 0.5% at least until the Labour Force Survey (LFS) headline
measure of the unemployment rate had fallen to a ‘threshold’ of 7%, subject to the conditions below.
They used “margin of slack” as explicitly using the phrase “output gap” had failed. The UK had one in theory but inflation had surged over target so it was a bit of a laughing stock. As they are slow learners they kept the policy and changed the language used instead. Next they used the employment rate because using GDP had failed.
The problem was that the “unemployment rate” was an even worse measure than GDP! There is some good news here as the UK labour market improved quickly but the Bank of England was left with a whole pack of eggs on its face. This matters as people made real decisions on Forward Guidance like this. You see whether how much you regarded 7% as a threshold there was also this.
Bank staff estimate that the medium-term equilibrium unemployment rate is presently in the region of 6.5%.
So when it went below 4% as it later did in the UK you might have expected Bank Rate to have been raised several times to say 2.5%. I will just leave that there….
Returning to GDP as the authors of the FT piece have there are other problems. The first is that it was abandoned as a signal for this sort of thing because it failed and indeed sailed utterly. But it gets worse because there are plenty of grounds to argue it will do even worse now. A lot of the issues come around the fact that it only counts things that are paid for. If people work from home more they are likely to use the commuting time gained to do more for themselves. An example of this sort of thing is one of my neighbours who due to the situation did not get a repair(wo)man in when his washing machine broke he ordered a new motor and fitted it himself. That is the same effect but lower GDP. Some might be able to do more of their own childcare and so on.
But we seem to keep finding supporters of the output gap no matter how often it fails or as The Eagles put it.
“Relax”, said the night man
“We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave”


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--The Federal Reserve & It’s Ongoing Destruction Of The Bottom 90%

The Federal Reserve seemingly is an ongoing mission to destroy the bottom 90 % .
The one lesson that we have clearly learned since the 2008 “ Great Financial Crisis , ” is that monetary and fiscal policy interventions do not lead to increased levels of economic wealth or prosperity .
What these programs have done , is act as a wealth transfer system from the bottom 90 % to the top 10 % .
While we will address the statistical data , there is also the anecdotal evidence which supports this thesis .
Since 2008 there have been rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basic incomes , increased social welfare , and even a two-time candidate for President who was a self-admitted socialist .
Such things would not occur if “ prosperity ” was flourishing within the economy .
Stocks Are Not The Economy Take a close look at the chart above .
Companies derive their revenue from the consumption of goods , products , and services they produce .
There , it is logical stock price appreciation , over the long-term , has roughly equated to economic growth .
However , that relationship has become unhinged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed ’ s interventions and suppressed interest rates .
From Jan 1st , 2009 through the end of March , the stock market has risen by an astounding 159 % , or roughly 14 % annualized .
With such a large gain in the financial markets , there should be a commensurate growth rate in the economy .
After 3-massive Federal Reserve driven “ Quantitative Easing ” programs , a maturity extension program , bailouts of TARP , TGLP , TGLF , etc.
, HAMP , HARP , direct bailouts of Bear Stearns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , etc.
, all of which totaled more than $ 33 Trillion , cumulative real economic growth was just 5.48 % .
While monetary interventions are supposed to be supporting economic growth through increases in consumer confidence , the outcome has been quite different .
Low , to zero , interest rates have incentivized non-productive debt , and exacerbated the wealth gap .
The massive increases in debt has actually harmed growth by diverting consumptive spending to debt service .
If wages don ’ t rise at a pace fast enough to offset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of living , ” individuals are forced to turn to credit to fill the gap .
The lack of savings was a recent topic of discussion by the Wall Street Journal : There are two reasons for the lack of savings .
Yes , lack of wage growth is a problem , but as stated above , it is also a problem of the debt .
Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from household net worth to incomes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , that study will be updated in October 2020 .
It will confirm little has changed over the last 3-years for those in the bottom 90 % .
The full Federal Reserve report can be found here , but I wanted to point to two charts specifically which confirm the Fed ’ s policies have exacerbated the wealth gap .
As I stated previously , the top 10 % of asset holders greatly distorts the view of the economy as a whole .
For the bottom 90 % , there hasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also why there are record levels of individuals 65 and over still in the workforce .
It ’ s not that they don ’ t want to retire , they simply can ’ t afford to .
Since the bulk of the population either does not , or only marginally , participates in the financial markets , the “ boost ” has remained concentrated in the upper 10 % .
The Federal Reserve study breaks the data down in several ways , but the story remains the same .
While the Federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost consumer confidence , consumption , and ultimately economic growth , it didn ’ t occur .
Instead , falling incomes and rising costs of living , impaired the ability for 90 % of families to save and invest .
Again , the benefit of the Federal Reserve ’ s interventions was clearly concentrated in the top 10 % .
Not Getting Any Better As noted , the Fed will update their study of consumer finances this year , but the WSJ confirms not much will likely change .
This isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BCA confirms one of the causes of the rising wealth gap in the U.S .
The top-10 % of income earners owns 88 % of the stock market , while the bottom-90 % owns just 12 % .
The lack of economic improvement is clearly evident across all data points .
However , it has been the very policies of the Federal Reserve which have fostered the burgeoning wealth gap .
The ongoing interventions by the Federal Reserve propelled asset prices higher , but left the majority of American families behind .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanently changed the financial underpinnings of the economy as a whole .
This would suggest the current state of slow economic growth is the new normal , and interest rates will indefinitely be stuck at the zero-bound .

by Lance Roberts
The Federal Reserve seemingly is an ongoing mission to destroy the bottom 90%.
The one lesson that we have clearly learned since the 2008 “Great Financial Crisis,” is that monetary and fiscal policy interventions do not lead to increased levels of economic wealth or prosperity. What these programs have done, is act as a wealth transfer system from the bottom 90% to the top 10%.
Read The Prequel Report:
While we will address the statistical data, there is also the anecdotal evidence which supports this thesis. Since 2008 there have been rising calls for socialistic policies such as universal basic incomes, increased social welfare, and even a two-time candidate for President who was a self-admitted socialist. Such things would not occur if “prosperity” was flourishing within the economy.
As I addressed recently:
“The disparity between the Fed’s interventions, the stock market, and the real economy has become abundantly clear. For 90% of Americans, there has not been, nor will there be, any economic recovery.”
Stocks Are Not The Economy
Take a close look at the chart above.
Companies derive their revenue from the consumption of goods, products, and services they produce. There, it is logical stock price appreciation, over the long-term, has roughly equated to economic growth. However, that relationship has become unhinged since the financial crisis due to the Fed’s interventions and suppressed interest rates.
From Jan 1st, 2009 through the end of March, the stock market has risen by an astounding 159%, or roughly 14% annualized. With such a large gain in the financial markets, there should be a commensurate growth rate in the economy.
After 3-massive Federal Reserve driven “Quantitative Easing” programs, a maturity extension program, bailouts of TARP, TGLP, TGLF, etc., HAMP, HARP, direct bailouts of Bear Stearns, AIG, GM, bank supports, etc., all of which totaled more than $33 Trillion, cumulative real economic growth was just 5.48%.
While monetary interventions are supposed to be supporting economic growth through increases in consumer confidence, the outcome has been quite different.
Low, to zero, interest rates have incentivized non-productive debt, and exacerbated the wealth gap. The massive increases in debt has actually harmed growth by diverting consumptive spending to debt service.
“The rise in debt, which in the last decade was used primarily to fill the gap between incomes and the cost of living, has contributed to the retardation of economic growth.”
The Savings Shortfall
If wages don’t rise at a pace fast enough to offset the costs of maintaining the “standard of living,” individuals are forced to turn to credit to fill the gap. The lack of savings was a recent topic of discussion by the Wall Street Journal:
“Roughly half of U.S. households have no emergency savings, according to a Federal Reserve survey released last year. Those that do may not have enough. Almost 60% said they couldn’t tap into rainy-day funds, borrow from family and friends or sell something to cover three months of living expenses.” – WSJ
There are two reasons for the lack of savings.
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“First, incomes for all but the highest-income Americans have been stagnant or falling for decades. Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%.” -WSJ
Yes, lack of wage growth is a problem, but as stated above, it is also a problem of the debt.
“The second reason has to do with the continuing effects of the debt households accumulated before the 2007-09 recession. A new paper by Atif Mian, of Princeton University, Ludwig Straub of Harvard University and Amir Sufi of The University of Chicago found that rising income inequality over the past few decades created the conditions that fed the rise in debt held by lower-income households in the early 2000s.” – WSJ
The Fed Sees It
Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from household net worth to incomes. The last survey was completed in 2016, however, that study will be updated in October 2020. It will confirm little has changed over the last 3-years for those in the bottom 90%.
The full Federal Reserve report can be found here, but I wanted to point to two charts specifically which confirm the Fed’s policies have exacerbated the wealth gap. As I stated previously, the top 10% of asset holders greatly distorts the view of the economy as a whole. For the bottom 90%, there hasn’t been much improvement.
This is also why there are record levels of individuals 65 and over still in the workforce. It’s not that they don’t want to retire, they simply can’t afford to.
Since the bulk of the population either does not, or only marginally, participates in the financial markets, the “boost” has remained concentrated in the upper 10%. The Federal Reserve study breaks the data down in several ways, but the story remains the same.
While the Federal Reserve had hoped inflating asset prices would boost consumer confidence, consumption, and ultimately economic growth, it didn’t occur. Instead, falling incomes and rising costs of living, impaired the ability for 90% of families to save and invest. Again, the benefit of the Federal Reserve’s interventions was clearly concentrated in the top 10%.
Not Getting Any Better
As noted, the Fed will update their study of consumer finances this year, but the WSJ confirms not much will likely change.
“As of December 2019—before the shutdowns—households in the bottom 20% of incomes had seen their financial assets, such as money in the bank, stock and bond investments or retirement funds, fall by 34% since the end of the 2007-09 recession, according to Fed data adjusted for inflation. Those in the middle of the income distribution have seen just 4% growth.” – WSJ
This isn’t surprising. A recent research report by BCA confirms one of the causes of the rising wealth gap in the U.S. The top-10% of income earners owns 88% of the stock market, while the bottom-90% owns just 12%.
The lack of economic improvement is clearly evident across all data points. However, it has been the very policies of the Federal Reserve which have fostered the burgeoning wealth gap. The ongoing interventions by the Federal Reserve propelled asset prices higher, but left the majority of American families behind.
The New Normal
The structural transformation over the last decade has permanently changed the financial underpinnings of the economy as a whole. This would suggest the current state of slow economic growth is the new normal, and interest rates will indefinitely be stuck at the zero-bound.
Such will be marked by continued volatile equity market returns, and a stagflationary environment, as wages remain suppressed while costs of living rise. The end game of three decades of excess is upon us, and we can’t deny the weight of the debt imbalances currently in play. The medicine the Federal Reserve is prescribing is a treatment for the common cold; in this case a normal business cycle recession. The outcome of those policies, while unintended, are destroying the bottom 90% of the population who suffer from a “debt cancer.” Trying to solve a debt problem with more debt is akin to giving a patient “aspirin” for the pain. While such a prescription may temporarily mask the “pain,” it is not a “cure.” If it was, then a rising percentage of Americans would not be supporting the idea of “socialism?”


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-11--Why No Democrat will Admit the Truth About COVID-19

QUESTION : Why are the democrats refusing to address the recent information which confirms that COVID-19 has a death rates of less than 1 % ?
Why do they continue to try to scare people and pass acts to invade our privacy ?
REPLY : They have no incentive to tell the truth .
There were people who sold everything long before the World Health Organization declared anything about this virus .
This has been an intended coup and that is really the bottom line .
It was a Democrat who from Illinois , the basket-case of the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectively force people to be tested and to assist them in being imprisoned in their homes ( see HR 6666 ) .
I can not image how a politicians grew up an American has crossed-over and became a tyrant and thinks this is OK .
They will NOT let this go because in September when the next flu season begins , the Democrats will be running headlines that people are dying because Trump opened the economy .
This is all they have to try to overthrow him .
We will witness the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Expect the votes to be rigged .
The turmoil they will unleash on the nation and the world may be far more than we can even speculate .
They will NEVER accept a Trump victory .
It will be their way or no way .

by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Why are the democrats refusing to address the recent information which confirms that COVID-19 has a death rates of less than 1%? Why do they continue to try to scare people and pass acts to invade our privacy?
LH
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REPLY: They have no incentive to tell the truth. There were people who sold everything long before the World Health Organization declared anything about this virus. This has been an intended coup and that is really the bottom line. It was a Democrat who from Illinois, the basket-case of the United States, Bob Rush, who wants to effectively force people to be tested and to assist them in being imprisoned in their homes (see HR 6666). I cannot image how a politicians grew up an American has crossed-over and became a tyrant and thinks this is OK.
They will NOT let this go because in September when the next flu season begins, the Democrats will be running headlines that people are dying because Trump opened the economy. This is all they have to try to overthrow him. We will witness the most corrupt election in American history come 2020. Expect the votes to be rigged. The turmoil they will unleash on the nation and the world may be far more than we can even speculate. They will NEVER accept a Trump victory. It will be their way or no way.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-12--Economic Catastrophe: Millions Upon Millions Of Jobs That Have Been Lost Are Never Coming Back

Do you personally know people that have lost jobs in 2020 ?
I do , and I am not sure what to tell them .
As is the case all over the U.S. right now , there is hope that some of the jobs will still be there when the lockdowns end , but in other cases it looks like the jobs are gone for good .
And since virtually nobody is hiring right now , finding new jobs is certainly not going to be easy , and there will be millions of others competing for the few jobs that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be some that will decide that being a government “ contact tracer ” is better than not being able to pay the bills , and the mainstream media is aggressively promoting those jobs right now .
But what most unemployed workers really want is to go back to their old jobs , but unfortunately many of them will never be able to do so .
According to a new study that was just released by the National Bureau of Economic Research , a whopping 42 percent of the jobs that have been lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been lost permanently… So let ’ s take a moment and do a little math .
Over the past 7 weeks , 33.5 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits .
42 percent of 33.5 million is just over 14 million , and that represents almost 10 percent of all the jobs in the entire economy before this pandemic began .
Of course more Americans continue to lose jobs with each passing week .
For example , last week thousands of Uber employees were abruptly terminated during a three minute Zoom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those employees ?
There is no loyalty in corporate America today .
When the time comes , they will ruthlessly cut ties with even their most hard working employees without even a moment of hesitation .
Uber ’ s Ruffin Chaveleau was given the task of letting these workers go , and there was no mincing of words… Do you think those jobs are coming back ?
Of course not .
They are gone for good , and the company as a whole is going to have a very tough time surviving in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carnage that we are witnessing is truly unprecedented , and some parts of the country are being hit harder than others .
I have some good friends in Hawaii , and needless to say this pandemic has caused tourism to Hawaii to absolutely implode .
As the tourist industry has collapsed , the unemployment rate in the state has gone from 3 percent to 34 percent… Eventually some of those jobs may start coming back as the pandemic fades .
But then again , they might not .
And just about everyone agrees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue to bleed jobs .
In fact , at this point even U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is admitting that the numbers “ are probably going to get worse ” … The good news is that millions of workers that have been temporarily laid off should start going back to work in the months ahead as the lockdowns are ended .
But the bad news is that there are millions of newly unemployed workers that have lost their jobs permanently and won ’ t be able to get new ones .
As a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will greatly surge , and many more people will end up in the streets .
Already , it is being reported that the number of homeless tents in San Francisco ’ s Tenderloin District has grown by 300 percent… I have written about homelessness a lot over the years , and before this pandemic started there were more than half a million Americans that were homeless .
As this new economic depression drags on , that number is likely to multiply .
The economic crisis that I have been warning about is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to be looking to our politicians to “ fix things ” .
But as Egon von Greyerz has noted , there isn ’ t going to be any solution to this crisis… As usual , he is right on target .
All of the economic dominoes are starting to tumble , and fear of this virus is going to be with us for a very long time to come .
Those that are still hoping for a “ V-shaped recovery ” , a “ U-shaped recovery ” or any sort of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be deeply disappointed .
The beginning of the end has arrived for the U.S. economy , and we are all going to be absolutely horrified by the things that take place in the months ahead .

by Michael Snyder
Do you personally know people that have lost jobs in 2020? I do, and I am not sure what to tell them. As is the case all over the U.S. right now, there is hope that some of the jobs will still be there when the lockdowns end, but in other cases it looks like the jobs are gone for good. And since virtually nobody is hiring right now, finding new jobs is certainly not going to be easy, and there will be millions of others competing for the few jobs that open up. Of course there will be some that will decide that being a government “contact tracer” is better than not being able to pay the bills, and the mainstream media is aggressively promoting those jobs right now. But what most unemployed workers really want is to go back to their old jobs, but unfortunately many of them will never be able to do so.
According to a new study that was just released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a whopping 42 percent of the jobs that have been lost during this crisis are likely to have been lost permanently…
Many of the coronavirus pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses, according to a new study with alarming implications for the future of the economy. Forty-two percent of workers experiencing recent layoffs will suffer permanent job losses, according to a paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Wow.
So let’s take a moment and do a little math.
Over the past 7 weeks, 33.5 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits.
42 percent of 33.5 million is just over 14 million, and that represents almost 10 percent of all the jobs in the entire economy before this pandemic began.
Of course more Americans continue to lose jobs with each passing week.
For example, last week thousands of Uber employees were abruptly terminated during a three minute Zoom call…
Thousands of Uber employees learned that they were being laid off in a three-minute Zoom call last week. The ride-sharing company informed 3,500 people who worked in customer service and recruitment around the country that it would be their last day working for Uber on the live call.
Could you imagine being one of those employees?
There is no loyalty in corporate America today. When the time comes, they will ruthlessly cut ties with even their most hard working employees without even a moment of hesitation.
Uber’s Ruffin Chaveleau was given the task of letting these workers go, and there was no mincing of words…
Chevaleau told staff: ‘Our rides business is down by more than half. There is not enough work for many frontline customer support employees. [As a result] we are eliminating 3,500 frontline customer support roles. ‘Your role is impacted and today will be your last working day with Uber. You will remain on payroll until the date noted in your severance package.’
Do you think those jobs are coming back?
Of course not.
They are gone for good, and the company as a whole is going to have a very tough time surviving in this new economic environment.
The economic carnage that we are witnessing is truly unprecedented, and some parts of the country are being hit harder than others. I have some good friends in Hawaii, and needless to say this pandemic has caused tourism to Hawaii to absolutely implode.
As the tourist industry has collapsed, the unemployment rate in the state has gone from 3 percent to 34 percent…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Unemployment in Hawaii has skyrocketed from three percent to 34 percent as tourism vanishes from the island – and it could get worse as lockdown measures to protect against coronavirus continue. Since March the number of people flying into Hawaii has fallen dramatically from 30,000-a-day to just 756.
Eventually some of those jobs may start coming back as the pandemic fades.
But then again, they might not.
And just about everyone agrees that the U.S. economy is going to continue to bleed jobs.
In fact, at this point even U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is admitting that the numbers “are probably going to get worse”…
The staggering U.S. unemployment rate reported by the government on Friday amid coronavirus lockdowns may get even worse, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday. “The reported numbers are probably going to get worse before they get better,” Mnuchin told the Fox News Sunday program.
The good news is that millions of workers that have been temporarily laid off should start going back to work in the months ahead as the lockdowns are ended.
But the bad news is that there are millions of newly unemployed workers that have lost their jobs permanently and won’t be able to get new ones.
As a result, the ranks of the poor will greatly surge, and many more people will end up in the streets.
Already, it is being reported that the number of homeless tents in San Francisco’s Tenderloin District has grown by 300 percent…
The streets of San Francisco’s Tenderloin District have experienced a 300 percent increase in the number of homeless tents since the coronavirus outbreak began, according to a federal lawsuit filed by the community and a law school. Residents, businesses and the University of California Hastings College of Law are suing to demand the city clean up drug needles and human waste which have littered the streets.
I have written about homelessness a lot over the years, and before this pandemic started there were more than half a million Americans that were homeless.
As this new economic depression drags on, that number is likely to multiply.
The economic crisis that I have been warning about is now here, and the American people are going to be looking to our politicians to “fix things”.
But as Egon von Greyerz has noted, there isn’t going to be any solution to this crisis…
This is what is so sad with the current economic crisis – there is no solution. Nobody should believe that it is the Coronavirus that has caused this catastrophe for the world. CV was the catalyst but the underlying problems have been there for a long time. The Great Financial Crisis in 2006-9 was temporarily patched up with trillions of dollars of money printing but it was never solved. The Great Financial Crisis was only a rehearsal and now the world is facing the inevitable collapse of the financial system.
As usual, he is right on target.
All of the economic dominoes are starting to tumble, and fear of this virus is going to be with us for a very long time to come.
Those that are still hoping for a “V-shaped recovery”, a “U-shaped recovery” or any sort of a major recovery at all are going to be deeply disappointed.
The beginning of the end has arrived for the U.S. economy, and we are all going to be absolutely horrified by the things that take place in the months ahead.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-12--The System Is Being Pushed To The Edge, The Central Bank Economic System Is Run By Criminals

Todays interview is with Rob Kirby , Rob talks about the pandemic , the ESF and how the economy was @ @ @ @ @ about the debt and dark money that had to be fed into the system to @ @ @ @

Rob Kirby interviewed on X22 Report Spotlight
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Todays interview is with Rob Kirby, Rob talks about the pandemic, the ESF and how the economy was taking down. Rob talks about the debt and dark money that had to be fed into the system to keep it going.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-12--The Worst Jobs Report…In US History!

The Worst Jobs Report…In US History!

The unemployment figures were not as cataclysmic as feared .
Consensus came in at 22 million .
Here is the bad news : 20.5 million Americans were thrown from work last month — crushing all existing records .
By way of comparison… only two million were heaved out during the darkest month of the Great Depression .
Even Worse Than Official Numbers Indicate ?
Not since government bean-counters began tracking monthly data in 1948 has unemployment soared to such precarious heights .
Yet the true unemployment rate may be even grimmer… The actual rate may scale an abominable 35.7 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mr. John Williams and his ShadowStats site .
This fellow incorporates “ long-term discouraged workers ” into his models .
These unfortunates were read out of official tracking in 1994 .
Mix them back in and you have 35.7 % unemployment on your hands… says Williams .
But cling to the official 14.7 % for the moment .
If it is additional good news you seek , here you have it : An even bleaker figure — 16 % — was consensus .
Wall Street chose the optimistic view , the glass of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away from opening whistle… and never glanced down .
The Dow Jones climbed nearly 400 points by noon .
It ended the day 455 points higher .
The Nasdaq has now clawed 35 % above its March lows… and has gained 1.4 % on the year .
The index alone is now larger than all the stock markets of the world .
Consider the situation before us… A record 20.5 million Americans were shoved off their jobs last month .
Unemployment is ( officially ) 14.7 % , the highest since monthly tracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ joy on Wall Street .
It is as if a football club were trounced by 49 points .
But the oddsmakers had it losing by 63 .
Thus the 49-point rout is a sort of victory .
And this losing club ’ s fanatics erupt in celebration because of it .
Of course it is no victory whatsoever — not literal , not moral .
It is a complete and thorough whaling .
But the professionals were quick to place today ’ s jubilance in proper perspective… It ’ s Not Where You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Going One Michael Farr , for example , is founder and CEO of Farr , Miller & Washington investment counsel .
From whom : There is also a deep human willingness to whistle past boneyards… we might note .
“ The market knows that the job losses are self-inflicted due to the widespread shutdowns , ” adds Bleakley Advisory CIO Peter Boockvar .
He continues : We finally come to Mr. Arthur Hogan .
He is chief market strategist at National Securities .
Says he : But is a gradual reopening of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative economic data ?
A new survey reveals 52 % of small-business owners “ expect to be out of business within six months , ” Bloomberg reports .
But assume only 25 % sink under .
Millions and millions of Americans will nonetheless go scratching .
If 70 % of the United States economy is consumption… these are millions and millions who will not be consuming .
Meantime , we are informed that a “ biblical ” flood of bankruptcies will wash over America in the months ahead .
Does the Stock Market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s cheer squad will inform you that the stock market looks ahead… and “ discounts the future.
” Yet the stock market is presently perhaps the most expensive ever .
A stock ’ s price-earnings ( P/E ) ratio indicates what investors will pay for each dollar of future earnings .
If a stock trades at 19 times earnings… investors are willing to ladle out $ 19 for $ 1 of earnings .
Stocks with P/E ratios beneath 15 are considered cheap… historically .
Stocks above 18 are generally considered expensive .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ratio for the S & P as a whole ?
Near 21 .
That is , the S & P is extravagantly expensive by historical accounts .
It indicates a future economy under full steam .
Maybe the Stock Market Is Wrong From the biblical flood of bankruptcies ?
From the millions and millions of jobless ?
If the stock market discounts the future so reliably… it must believe the economy has a real trick up its shirtsleeve .
Either the stock market is correct — or the economy has no trick up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trick is up the sleeve .
That is , we do not anticipate the V-shaped recovery Wall Street sees shimmering in the distance .
The stock market may have discounted the future at one time .
But to our notion , that era is past… Down 50 % -80 % Without the Fed Wall Street does not so much look ahead to the future… but south to Washington — at the Federal Reserve .
Where would the stock market presently sit without the Federal Reserve ’ s recent liquidity floods ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Management recently dug into the question .
Here is their answer : Let the rah-rah men babble about the discounted future .
The facts are visible to any with eyes willing to see : The stock market rises and falls on the liquidity pumped in .
The past decade offers nearly perfect proof .
The Market Lives and Dies by the Fed Do you recall December 2018 , when Mr. Powell pledged to continue raising interest rates and draining the balance sheet ?
The market came within an ace of a bear market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flag .
He axed rates and plugged the drain .
And he has lately swung the floodgates open… Rates are once again at zero .
And some $ 3 trillion has come flooding onto the balance sheet — lifting it to $ 6.72 trillion — $ 2.2 trillion higher than previous high water in 2015 .
We hazard it will rise to $ 10 trillion by year ’ s end… or higher .
We suspect this liquidy future is the future that the stock market is discounting .
It is not the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in steps .
But that does not mean Americans will throng into restaurants , into malls , into cinemas , into arenas , onto airplanes , into hotels , into theme parks .
Only a mighty swing of the national psychology will draw them out , we hazard .
And we do not believe the psychology will swing until a COVID-19 antidote comes out .
The economy will not continue to shrivel at a 30–47 % annualized rate , it is true .
But assume third- and fourth-quarter GDP “ rebounds ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GDP is contracting nevertheless .
The economy may jump from the roaring fire to the frying pan , that is .
But the pan still scorches .
Main Street will take the burns .
Yet with the Federal Reserve hosing in trillions in liquidity…

via Daily Reckoning:
The good news first:
The unemployment figures were not as cataclysmic as feared. Consensus came in at 22 million.
Here is the bad news:
The unemployment figures were cataclysmic nonetheless.
20.5 million Americans were thrown from work last month — crushing all existing records.
By way of comparison… only two million were heaved out during the darkest month of the Great Depression.
Even Worse Than Official Numbers Indicate?
Meantime, the United States unemployment rate presently stands at a ghoulish 14.7%.
Not since government bean-counters began tracking monthly data in 1948 has unemployment soared to such precarious heights.
Yet the true unemployment rate may be even grimmer…
The actual rate may scale an abominable 35.7% — if you accept the verdict of Mr. John Williams and his ShadowStats site.
This fellow incorporates “long-term discouraged workers” into his models. These unfortunates were read out of official tracking in 1994.
Mix them back in and you have 35.7% unemployment on your hands… says Williams.
But cling to the official 14.7% for the moment. If it is additional good news you seek, here you have it:
An even bleaker figure — 16% — was consensus.
Worst Unemployment Report in History, the Stock Market Soars
Wall Street chose the optimistic view, the glass of water half-filled.
Stocks were up and away from opening whistle… and never glanced down.
The Dow Jones climbed nearly 400 points by noon. It ended the day 455 points higher.
The S&P gained 48 points, the Nasdaq 141.
The Nasdaq has now clawed 35% above its March lows… and has gained 1.4% on the year. The index alone is now larger than all the stock markets of the world.
A Strange Kind of Victory
Consider the situation before us…
A record 20.5 million Americans were shoved off their jobs last month. Unemployment is (officially) 14.7%, the highest since monthly tracking began in 1948.
Yet all is joy on Wall Street.
It is as if a football club were trounced by 49 points. But the oddsmakers had it losing by 63. Thus the 49-point rout is a sort of victory.
And this losing club’s fanatics erupt in celebration because of it.
Of course it is no victory whatsoever — not literal, not moral. It is a complete and thorough whaling.
But the professionals were quick to place today’s jubilance in proper perspective…
It’s Not Where You Are, but Where You’re Going
One Michael Farr, for example, is founder and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington investment counsel. From whom:
There seems to be a willingness to look past an absence of revenues and earnings, increasing unemployment, an explosion of sovereign and corporate debt and devolving credit ratings based on two things: huge policy response and faith that a meaningful recovery will be somewhere within the next six–12 months.
There is also a deep human willingness to whistle past boneyards… we might note.
“The market knows that the job losses are self-inflicted due to the widespread shutdowns,” adds Bleakley Advisory CIO Peter Boockvar. He continues:
Thus, now that we are beginning the reopening process the market assumes many of these people will hopefully get hired back over the coming months and quarters.
“The market assumes.”
We finally come to Mr. Arthur Hogan. He is chief market strategist at National Securities. Says he:
You have investors that seem to be able to look through the tsunami of negative economic data and earnings and toward the potential for a gradual reopening of the economy.
But is a gradual reopening of the economy the end of the tsunami of negative economic data?
A “Biblical” Flood of Bankruptcies
A new survey reveals 52% of small-business owners “expect to be out of business within six months,” Bloomberg reports.
But assume only 25% sink under. Millions and millions of Americans will nonetheless go scratching.
If 70% of the United States economy is consumption… these are millions and millions who will not be consuming.
Meantime, we are informed that a “biblical” flood of bankruptcies will wash over America in the months ahead.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Does the Stock Market Really Discount the Future?
Wall Street’s cheer squad will inform you that the stock market looks ahead… and “discounts the future.”
Yet the stock market is presently perhaps the most expensive ever.
A stock’s price-earnings (P/E) ratio indicates what investors will pay for each dollar of future earnings. If a stock trades at 19 times earnings… investors are willing to ladle out $19 for $1 of earnings.
Stocks with P/E ratios beneath 15 are considered cheap… historically. Stocks above 18 are generally considered expensive.
What is today’s forward-looking P/E ratio for the S&P as a whole?
Near 21. That is, the S&P is extravagantly expensive by historical accounts.
It indicates a future economy under full steam.
Maybe the Stock Market Is Wrong
Whence will corporate earnings originate?
From the biblical flood of bankruptcies? From the millions and millions of jobless?
If the stock market discounts the future so reliably… it must believe the economy has a real trick up its shirtsleeve.
Either the stock market is correct — or the economy has no trick up its shirtsleeve.
We do not believe the trick is up the sleeve.
That is, we do not anticipate the V-shaped recovery Wall Street sees shimmering in the distance.
Nor does Bloomberg:
The breadth of job losses is a jarring signal of the massive challenge of restarting vast swaths of the economy – not just a few sectors – and it therefore serves as a stark indication that a ‘V-shaped’ recovery will not be possible.
The stock market may have discounted the future at one time. But to our notion, that era is past…
Down 50%-80% Without the Fed
Wall Street does not so much look ahead to the future… but south to Washington — at the Federal Reserve.
Where would the stock market presently sit without the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity floods?
The men and women of One River Asset Management recently dug into the question. Here is their answer:
Down 50–80%.
Let the rah-rah men babble about the discounted future. The facts are visible to any with eyes willing to see:
The stock market rises and falls on the liquidity pumped in. The past decade offers nearly perfect proof.
The Market Lives and Dies by the Fed
Do you recall December 2018, when Mr. Powell pledged to continue raising interest rates and draining the balance sheet?
The market came within an ace of a bear market.
The chairman immediately raised his surrender flag. He axed rates and plugged the drain.
And he has lately swung the floodgates open…
Rates are once again at zero. And some $3 trillion has come flooding onto the balance sheet — lifting it to $6.72 trillion — $2.2 trillion higher than previous high water in 2015.
We hazard it will rise to $10 trillion by year’s end… or higher.
We suspect this liquidy future is the future that the stock market is discounting. It is not the economy.
Main Street Takes the Burns, not Wall Street
Yes, the economy will open, in steps. But that does not mean Americans will throng into restaurants, into malls, into cinemas, into arenas, onto airplanes, into hotels, into theme parks.
Only a mighty swing of the national psychology will draw them out, we hazard. And we do not believe the psychology will swing until a COVID-19 antidote comes out.
The economy will not continue to shrivel at a 30–47% annualized rate, it is true.
But assume third- and fourth-quarter GDP “rebounds” to a minus 5–10% reading. GDP is contracting nevertheless.
The economy may jump from the roaring fire to the frying pan, that is.
But the pan still scorches.
Main Street will take the burns. Yet with the Federal Reserve hosing in trillions in liquidity…
Wall Street will not.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-12--As Americans Face Meat Shortages & High Prices In Supermarkets, US Meat EXPORTS To China SOAR

( by Half Dollar ) It ’ s a good thing there are no meat shortages in the United States .
Oh wait , there are .
Indeed , I wrote about supply chain disruptions and shortages last week , and while I wrote the article primarily about toilet paper , notice what was not in stock : It has been an ongoing issue , since before May : And they say chicken ’ s plentiful .
I still can ’ t find any chicken , to this very day : Remember too , that ’ s with “ substitution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will do , so long as it ’ s in stock .
But I ’ ve still had ZERO luck , for weeks , buying chicken .
So we can only wonder what world the mainstream is living in when they say stuff like this : Of course , if your goal is to pump the funny money by any means necessary , then pump by any means necessary even if that means giving people a false sense of food security !
To rub salt in those wounds , no pun intended , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showing that US meat exports to China have been BOOMING ( bold added for emphasis ) : Good thing we ’ re allies with the CCCP , or is it the CCP ?
I almost forgot about the New Cold War Thingy where we , and especially the Trump Administration , blame China for everything that ails the United States .
That said , why in the heck are we feeding our enemy again ?
Reuters shows it ’ s not just to China , but in general , the US is on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China got about 10 % of America ’ s pork , and that ’ s just one type of meat !
Which kind of make one wonder , why in the heck did Trump nationalize the Meat Processing Plants ?
Is he going to halt the exportation of meat to China and get it to American grocery stores where the meat ’ s needed ?
If you trust the plan , then yes .

(by Half Dollar) It’s a good thing there are no meat shortages in the United States.
Oh wait, there are.
Indeed, I wrote about supply chain disruptions and shortages last week, and while I wrote the article primarily about toilet paper, notice what was not in stock:
That’s right.
Meat!
It has been an ongoing issue, since before May:
And they say chicken’s plentiful.
Dang liars!
I still can’t find any chicken, to this very day:
Remember too, that’s with “substitution”, meaning, any chicken breast will do, so long as it’s in stock.
But I’ve still had ZERO luck, for weeks, buying chicken.
So we can only wonder what world the mainstream is living in when they say stuff like this:
Of course, if your goal is to pump the funny money by any means necessary, then pump by any means necessary even if that means giving people a false sense of food security!
Dang shame.
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To rub salt in those wounds, no pun intended, we see reporting coming out of Reuters showing that US meat exports to China have been BOOMING (bold added for emphasis):
Processors including Smithfield Foods, owned by China’s WH Group Ltd, Brazilian-owned JBS USA and Tyson Foods Inc temporarily closed about 20 U.S. meat plants as the virus infected thousands of employees, prompting meatpackers and grocers to warn of shortages. Some plants have resumed limited operations as workers afraid of getting sick stay home.
The disruptions mean consumers could see 30% less meat in supermarkets by the end of May, at prices 20% higher than last year, according to Will Sawyer, lead economist at agricultural lender CoBank.
While pork supplies tightened as the number of pigs slaughtered each day plunged by about 40% since mid-March, shipments of American pork to China more than quadrupled over the same period, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. tmsnrt.rs/2YLF1XN
Smithfield, which China’s WH Group bought for $4.7 billion in 2013, was the biggest U.S. exporter to China from January to March, according to Panjiva, a division of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Smithfield shipped at least 13,680 tonnes by sea in March, Panjiva said, citing its most recent data.
Good thing we’re allies with the CCCP, or is it the CCP?
Oh wait, we’re not.
I almost forgot about the New Cold War Thingy where we, and especially the Trump Administration, blame China for everything that ails the United States.
That said, why in the heck are we feeding our enemy again?
Reuters shows it’s not just to China, but in general, the US is on a meat exporting binge:
Year-to-date, about 31% of U.S. pork has been exported, totaling about 838,000 tonnes, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. One-third of that volume went to China, accounting for more than 10% of total first-quarter production, the industry group said. It added that exports help increase U.S. production by raising overall demand.
Still, China got about 10% of America’s pork, and that’s just one type of meat!
Which kind of make one wonder, why in the heck did Trump nationalize the Meat Processing Plants?
Is he going to halt the exportation of meat to China and get it to American grocery stores where the meat’s needed?
If you trust the plan, then yes.
If he’s Deep State?
Then no.
Developing…