investmentwatchblog--2020-05-22--Eric Hickman: COVID-19 Defies Hyperbole

Eric Hickman: COVID-19 Defies Hyperbole

The economic effects from COVID-19 will be devastating .
Stock and asset prices will fall dramatically and will take years to recover .
U.S. Treasury yields will turn negative .
Sell “ risk-on ” assets , increase cash , and buy Treasury bonds .
The U.S. , if not the world ’ s economy was primed for a serious recession coming into 2020 .
I argued in an article published on January 13 that , based on economic indicators , a U.S. recession would begin sometime before the end of 2020 and likely by March .
In this context , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a transcendent one ) that tipped the world into it .
Pandemic or not , the world was oversupplied and due to flush-out bad debt , weak companies and inequality .
It only needed a push .
China hadn ’ t had a recession in 42 years ( since modern records have been kept in 1978 ) , Australia in 28 years , and the U.S. in 10 years .
Creative destruction had been waiting a long time .
And what a push it was .
Just 10 days later ( on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ e-mail to my clients with an article from The Washington Post about emerging issues in Wuhan saying , “ I get the sense that this is a bigger story than we are aware of.
” In the ensuing months , COVID-19 has become everything .
The health side of the story is bad enough , but the economic one is worse .
The combined economic effects of the global simultaneous lock-down , nine or more months of social distancing/rolling lock-down until a potential vaccine/treatment is available ( the “ 90 % Economy ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as well as the normal deleveraging side of the business cycle ( the “ knock-on ” effects or mentality change that usually is the recession ) make for an economic contraction that will be deep ( severe ) , wide ( pervasive ) , and long ( time ) .
And yet , stock markets are pricing a quick return to normal .
It won ’ t happen .
We are still in the first ( dare I say , “ denial ” ) stage ; something akin to the spring of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to be down just 19 % from the 09/03/1929 peak .
I suspect there are many years and chapters of COVID-19 yet to come .
At the same time , it isn ’ t the end of the world .
If one can appreciate how it works , there are investments that will do well ; but just a few .
COVID-19 Will Be Here For A While Many prominent people and publications are saying serious things about this virus ’ severity and duration : • Bill Gates , “ It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come.
” 4/23/2020 • German Chancellor Angela Merkel , “ We are not living in the final phase of the pandemic , but still at the beginning.
” 4/23/2020 • CDC Director Robert Redfield , “ There ’ s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through.
” 4/21/2020 • WHO Special Envoy David Nabarro , “ We think it ’ s going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race for quite a long time to come until we can all have a vaccine to protect us… ” 4/12/2020 • Former CDC Director , Tom Frieden , “ As bad as this has been so far , we ’ re just at the beginning.
” 5/7/2020 • New York Magazine , “ The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family , which includes SARS , MERS , and several that cause the common cold.
” 4/20/2020 A vaccine requires several steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a promising discovery is made , there is animal testing , human testing , dose finding , regulatory approval , large-scale production , distribution and the issue of who pays for it .
You can not inject all humans with something until there is relative certainty it is not going to have adverse effects .
Experts seem to agree that this can not be done faster than nine months .
Under the best case scenario , the world will be forced into the “ 90 % economy ” until sometime in 2021 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ It has several phenomena that make it problematic : • Uneven virulence across strains , the population , and within an infection .
COVID-19 hit the developed world first ; presumably in places where there is greater international travel .
And because of that , most developed nations are now seeing a plateau or decrease in new infections ( in the first wave at least ) .
But seemingly , many developing economies are just starting their first wave .
Developing economies generate the lion ’ s share of global GDP ( estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a large impact on the developed world .
The Economic Picture Is Serious The economic damage already done from the lock-down as well as the idea that the world was near to a recession will result in a secular change in spending mentality that favors saving over spending .
Beyond lock-downs , the social distancing required until a potential vaccine is available has direct ramifications to economic activity .
Gatherings with less density imply less demand for goods and services .
Common examples are flights with empty middle seats or stadiums half-filled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic output until a vaccine can be found and distributed broadly .
Economic data releases have been “ off the charts ” bad but dismissed by investors as aberrations .
And as yet economists are increasingly clear that even if the economy has already bottomed ( I doubt it ) , it will be a years-long recovery back .
But the stock market is priced for a V-shaped recovery ( more on this below ) .
Investors are imagining that the new infections curve ( of a given country ) to be inversely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new infections rate falls , the economy will come back in the same proportion .
But the economic indicators are “ off the charts ” in the same proportion to how severe this incident is .
In other words , they are real numbers and they are commensurately scary .
In any past recession , there were geographical areas or industries that were somewhat unaffected and could mitigate the heavily affected areas .
In this case , whole aspects of the global economy were turned off simultaneously in a very specialized and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
Also , unlike older historical pandemics when it took days or weeks for news to travel , humanity knew about it at the same time , changing our economic behavior ( a little or a lot ) all at once .
This is unprecedented in human history .
With reduced tax revenue , U.S. state , local , and municipal governments are struggling and will likely need a stimulus package of their own .
If this is happening in the United States , imagine the fiscal crises that will strike less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ locked down ( Sweden ) or countries well on the other side of the infections curve ( South Korea , China ) are showing depressed economies even without the lock-down .
With the U.S. unemployment rate at 14.7 % , the Taylor Rule implies the Fed funds rate should be less than minus -6 % to be stimulating the economy .
If the unemployment rate were to rise to 25 % in May ( per Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on 05/10/2020 ) , the Taylor Rule would suggest the Fed funds rate should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stimulative .
I ’ m not suggesting the Fed will get to these levels , but it illustrates the scale of the crisis .
Several others have stern warnings about the economic severity of COVID-19 : • Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Larry Fink , surreptitiously , “ Mass bankruptcies , empty planes , cautious consumers and an increase in the corporate tax rate to as high as 29 % were part of a vision Fink sketched out on a call this week.
” 05/06/2020 • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be part of the solution to the coronavirus crisis .
The most patriotic thing they could do today would be to stop paying dividends and raise equity capital , to ensure they can endure a deep economic downturn.
” 4/16/2020 • Sam Zell , “ Sam Zell , the billionaire known for buying up troubled real estate , said the coronavirus pandemic will leave the same kind of impact on the economy and society as the Great Depression 80 years ago , with long-lasting changes in human behavior that imperil many business models.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t know that three , four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year.
” 05/02/2020 • Scott Minerd , CIO of Guggenheim Investments , “ To think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product ( GDP ) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic .
Four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of activity that it was in January.
” 4/26/2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will take much longer than people assume for the economy to recover.
” 05/06/2020 Global Stock Markets Will Fall To New Lows Prominent publications have come out with specific warnings about the stock market : • The Economist , “ A one-month bear market scarcely seems enough time to absorb all the possible bad news from the pandemic and the huge uncertainty it has created .
This stock market drama has a few more acts yet.
” • Financial Times , “ Equities generally are still priced for a near-perfect bounce-back from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than planned .
Exits may prove bumpier .
Hopes that the virus can be eradicated quickly , and a second wave of infections avoided , may be proven wrong .
A quick rebound to the status quo ante looks increasingly implausible .
Amid so many unknowns , a further market correction looks more than likely.
” Despite it seeming as though the Federal Reserve and Treasury have spent infinite amounts of money to prop things up , it is still less than the money lost .
In a general sense , if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem , economic indicators wouldn ’ t be weakening .
Politicians never accidentally make people more than whole ( in the aggregate ) .
No matter how much liquidity there is , stocks are still ultimately beholden to corporate earnings .
The stock market is fundamentally expensive .
The price earnings ratio ( trailing ) of the S & P 500 is near 20 .
Prices will need to come down a great deal before stocks look secularly attractive .
They will have to come down even further if earnings weaken materially .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ these ratios are below 10 ( see chart below ) .
This is a big enough demand shock ( an economic “ earthquake ” ) that virtually any company ( U.S. or international ) will struggle for years .
Even after the virus and economy improve , paying the huge public debt bills that economies have amassed will become the focus .
Higher taxes will ultimately weigh on profitability for decades .
There will be exceptions ( say Clorox or Netflix , so far ) , but the majority will struggle .
Because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months ( really just three , as the markets are concerned ) , investors can still imagine a V-shaped recovery .
The chart below puts the U.S. stock market ’ s ( S & P 500 ) performance from its recent peak in the context of past major bear markets.In this view , things have only begun .
For instance , in the Great Depression , it took nearly three years from the peak to the trough .
We are just four months into this .
The stock markets went down through alternating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fears ( prices lower ) .
There will be many chapters to COVID-19 .
We are in the first one .
The table below shows all of the bear-market rallies greater than 10 % in the cycles identified above .
There were several strong rallies .
The average length of those rallies was about two months ( 1.8 ) .
The current rally has lasted a very similar 1.2 months ( assuming 04/29/2020 was the peak ) .
What To Invest In ?
There is nothing wrong with cash .
Today , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash , ” but at one time , it was just called “ savings.
” The importance of savings is that the money is there more than it is growing .
Japan has rediscovered this dynamic in the last 30 years .
Despite cash earning nothing ( and it won ’ t again for years ) , if you are in cash and the stock market falls , you get to buy it back cheaper .
Having cash gives an investor the freedom to invest in opportunities as they arise and be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s market .
Don ’ t think you have to invest all your money to be productive .
U.S. Treasury bonds will appreciate .
They appreciate in price when yields fall and depreciate when yields rise .
The more that yields move lower , the more that prices move higher .
As an example , if the current 30-year Treasury ’ s yield were to drop from where it currently yields 1.33 % ( 5/15/2020 ) , to 0.75 % , this bond would appreciate by 15 % .
If it dropped to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 % .
These aren ’ t small returns .
But bond prices decrease in the same proportion if rates were to rise .
As has already happened in Japan and Germany , U.S. Treasury interest rates will fall well below zero as this crisis intensifies .
This is why : Deflation will be the theme of the “ 90 % economy ” because it implies a 90 % price .
Meaning that if the economy is expected to operate 10 % lower than before , supply and demand would suggest that prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower too .
I am not suggesting a one-time drop of 10 % , but rather that there will be tremendous pressure towards lower prices ( in aggregate that-is ; individual sectors may have higher prices ) .
But , it isn ’ t just the initial shock , there will continue to be deflationary pressure as long as the output gap is negative .
That is going to take years and years to close .
Deflation implies lower Treasury yields , because if prices are deflating at say 5 % per year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Treasury would be valuable ( as saving 1 % over the alternative ) .
Because of this , there is no limit to how negative Treasury rates can go , they are a function of inflation/deflation .
Given the scale of COVID-19 , the Fed ( and other developed economy central banks ) will need to cut short-term rates deeply negative .
This will pull all Treasury yields lower .
I can already hear the chorus of arguments ( “ it hasn ’ t worked !
” , “ it creates a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creates hyperinflation !
” ) Yes , there will be tremendous resistance , but a threshold exists where the importance of protecting an industry ( money market managers , banking ) will pale in comparison to the economic needs of the whole country .
In other words , there is a point where the Fed will alienate creditors at-large for the bigger picture .
There are two prominent voices calling for negative rates so far ( below ) , but I suspect these voices will grow in number : • Professor of Economics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rogoff , “ …the Fed could push most short-term interest rates across the economy to near or below zero .
Europe and Japan already have tiptoed into negative rate territory .
Suppose central banks pushed back against today ’ s flight into government debt by going further , cutting short-term policy rates to , say , -3 % or lower.
” 5/4/2020 • Former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank , Naranya Kocherlakota , “ Unprecedented situations require unprecedented actions .
That ’ s why the U.S. Federal Reserve should fight a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below zero for the first time ever.
” 4/24/2020 But “ yield curve control ” is the Fed ’ s next-biggest tool and I suspect it will be used before negative rates because it is more palatable to the banking and money-market industries .
“ Yield curve control ” is a fancy way of saying that the Fed could control longer-term interest rates like they do with short-term rates .
Japan is currently doing it and the U.S. did it in the 1950s .
The idea is to force term rates down to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to encourage lending .
For instance , the Fed could target the 10-year Treasury yield to be 0.25 % and ensure it by committing to buy enough 10-year Treasury bonds to take it there .
“ Committing ” is the key word because if the central bank is credible enough , it doesn ’ t always have prove it with real capital ; the threat is enough for the market to take it there .
Assuming the mortgage market was functioning normally , it could help get mortgage rates down to 1 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how helpful that would be .
Some worry that the amount of stimulus the U.S. is spending will lead to hyper-inflation or equivalently , a weakened currency .
The fiscal/monetary picture of the U.S. isn ’ t as extreme as it is made to be .
Japan ’ s finances are a useful example of how far a super-power ’ s credit stretches .
On almost any dimension , Japan ’ s finances are in worse shape than in the US , and yet their 10-year yield is 0.00 % ( see table @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up first in Japan before we would see it in the U.S .
They are the canary in the coal mine on this issue .
All of these things combined portend a continuing U.S. Treasury bull market ( lower yields ) for a few more years .
Then , once everyone has given up on the stock market and P/E ratios are in the single digits , it will be time to buy stocks .
COVID-19 is the equivalent of a 300-year flood .
It will be the theme of financial markets for @ @ @ @

by Guest Author
Eric Hickman discusses how COVID-19 has defied hyperbole.
The economic effects from COVID-19 will be devastating. Stock and asset prices will fall dramatically and will take years to recover. U.S. Treasury yields will turn negative. Sell “risk-on” assets, increase cash, and buy Treasury bonds.
The U.S., if not the world’s economy was primed for a serious recession coming into 2020. I argued in an article published on January 13 that, based on economic indicators, a U.S. recession would begin sometime before the end of 2020 and likely by March. In this context, COVID-19 was just the catalyst (albeit, a transcendent one) that tipped the world into it. Pandemic or not, the world was oversupplied and due to flush-out bad debt, weak companies and inequality. It only needed a push. China hadn’t had a recession in 42 years (since modern records have been kept in 1978), Australia in 28 years, and the U.S. in 10 years. Creative destruction had been waiting a long time.
And what a push it was. Just 10 days later (on January 23), I wrote an e-mail to my clients with an article from The Washington Post about emerging issues in Wuhan saying, “I get the sense that this is a bigger story than we are aware of.” In the ensuing months, COVID-19 has become everything.
The health side of the story is bad enough, but the economic one is worse. The combined economic effects of the global simultaneous lock-down, nine or more months of social distancing/rolling lock-down until a potential vaccine/treatment is available (the “90% Economy” as The Economist has termed it), as well as the normal deleveraging side of the business cycle (the “knock-on” effects or mentality change that usually is the recession) make for an economic contraction that will be deep (severe), wide (pervasive), and long (time).
And yet, stock markets are pricing a quick return to normal. It won’t happen. We are still in the first (dare I say, “denial”) stage; something akin to the spring of 1930 when the stock market had rallied back to be down just 19% from the 09/03/1929 peak. I suspect there are many years and chapters of COVID-19 yet to come.
At the same time, it isn’t the end of the world. If one can appreciate how it works, there are investments that will do well; but just a few.
COVID-19 Will Be Here For A While
Many prominent people and publications are saying serious things about this virus’ severity and duration:
Bill Gates, “It is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come.” 4/23/2020
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, “We are not living in the final phase of the pandemic, but still at the beginning.” 4/23/2020
CDC Director Robert Redfield, “There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through.” 4/21/2020
WHO Special Envoy David Nabarro, “We think it’s going to be a virus that stalks the human race for quite a long time to come until we can all have a vaccine to protect us…” 4/12/2020
Former CDC Director, Tom Frieden, “As bad as this has been so far, we’re just at the beginning.” 5/7/2020
New York Magazine, “The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold.” 4/20/2020
A vaccine requires several steps past finding the right formula. Once a promising discovery is made, there is animal testing, human testing, dose finding, regulatory approval, large-scale production, distribution and the issue of who pays for it. You cannot inject all humans with something until there is relative certainty it is not going to have adverse effects. Experts seem to agree that this cannot be done faster than nine months. Under the best case scenario, the world will be forced into the “90% economy” until sometime in 2021.
COVID-19 Is Still Mysterious To Scientists.
It has several phenomena that make it problematic:
Contagious without symptoms;
A relatively long incubation period;
Symptoms throughout the body (i.e., blood clotting, COVID toe, organ failure);
Unknown immunity duration after recovery; and
Uneven virulence across strains, the population, and within an infection.
COVID-19 hit the developed world first; presumably in places where there is greater international travel. And because of that, most developed nations are now seeing a plateau or decrease in new infections (in the first wave at least). But seemingly, many developing economies are just starting their first wave. Developing economies generate the lion’s share of global GDP (estimated to be 60-70%) and thus have a large impact on the developed world.
The Economic Picture Is Serious The economic damage already done from the lock-down as well as the idea that the world was near to a recession will result in a secular change in spending mentality that favors saving over spending. Beyond lock-downs, the social distancing required until a potential vaccine is available has direct ramifications to economic activity. Gatherings with less density imply less demand for goods and services. Common examples are flights with empty middle seats or stadiums half-filled. Social distancing policies will enforce less economic output until a vaccine can be found and distributed broadly. Economic data releases have been “off the charts” bad but dismissed by investors as aberrations. And as yet economists are increasingly clear that even if the economy has already bottomed (I doubt it), it will be a years-long recovery back. But the stock market is priced for a V-shaped recovery (more on this below). Investors are imagining that the new infections curve (of a given country) to be inversely correlated to its economic curve. As the new infections rate falls, the economy will come back in the same proportion. But the economic indicators are “off the charts” in the same proportion to how severe this incident is. In other words, they are real numbers and they are commensurately scary. In any past recession, there were geographical areas or industries that were somewhat unaffected and could mitigate the heavily affected areas. In this case, whole aspects of the global economy were turned off simultaneously in a very specialized and optimized (“just-in-time”) global economy. Also, unlike older historical pandemics when it took days or weeks for news to travel, humanity knew about it at the same time, changing our economic behavior (a little or a lot) all at once. This is unprecedented in human history. With reduced tax revenue, U.S. state, local, and municipal governments are struggling and will likely need a stimulus package of their own. If this is happening in the United States, imagine the fiscal crises that will strike less wealthy economies. Countries that have not locked down (Sweden) or countries well on the other side of the infections curve (South Korea, China) are showing depressed economies even without the lock-down. With the U.S. unemployment rate at 14.7%, the Taylor Rule implies the Fed funds rate should be less than minus -6% to be stimulating the economy. If the unemployment rate were to rise to 25% in May (per Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on 05/10/2020), the Taylor Rule would suggest the Fed funds rate should be below minus -16% to be stimulative. I’m not suggesting the Fed will get to these levels, but it illustrates the scale of the crisis. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! Several others have stern warnings about the economic severity of COVID-19: Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Larry Fink, surreptitiously, “Mass bankruptcies, empty planes, cautious consumers and an increase in the corporate tax rate to as high as 29% were part of a vision Fink sketched out on a call this week.” 05/06/2020
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, “Large banks are eager to be part of the solution to the coronavirus crisis. The most patriotic thing they could do today would be to stop paying dividends and raise equity capital, to ensure they can endure a deep economic downturn.” 4/16/2020
Sam Zell, “Sam Zell, the billionaire known for buying up troubled real estate, said the coronavirus pandemic will leave the same kind of impact on the economy and society as the Great Depression 80 years ago, with long-lasting changes in human behavior that imperil many business models.” 05/05/2020
Nouriel Roubini, “The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s,” 04/28/2020
Warren Buffett “I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year.” 05/02/2020
Scott Minerd, CIO of Guggenheim Investments, “To think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product (GDP) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic. Four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of activity that it was in January.” 4/26/2020
Historian Niall Ferguson, “It will take much longer than people assume for the economy to recover.” 05/06/2020
Global Stock Markets Will Fall To New Lows Prominent publications have come out with specific warnings about the stock market: The Economist, “A one-month bear market scarcely seems enough time to absorb all the possible bad news from the pandemic and the huge uncertainty it has created. This stock market drama has a few more acts yet.”
Financial Times, “Equities generally are still priced for a near-perfect bounce-back from the coronavirus crisis. Lockdowns may last longer than planned. Exits may prove bumpier. Hopes that the virus can be eradicated quickly, and a second wave of infections avoided, may be proven wrong. A quick rebound to the status quo ante looks increasingly implausible. Amid so many unknowns, a further market correction looks more than likely.” Despite it seeming as though the Federal Reserve and Treasury have spent infinite amounts of money to prop things up, it is still less than the money lost. In a general sense, if the stimulus funds were as big as the problem, economic indicators wouldn’t be weakening. Politicians never accidentally make people more than whole (in the aggregate). No matter how much liquidity there is, stocks are still ultimately beholden to corporate earnings. The stock market is fundamentally expensive. The price earnings ratio (trailing) of the S&P 500 is near 20. Prices will need to come down a great deal before stocks look secularly attractive. They will have to come down even further if earnings weaken materially. Multi-decade secular bull markets have begun when these ratios are below 10 (see chart below). This is a big enough demand shock (an economic “earthquake”) that virtually any company (U.S. or international) will struggle for years. Even after the virus and economy improve, paying the huge public debt bills that economies have amassed will become the focus. Higher taxes will ultimately weigh on profitability for decades. There will be exceptions (say Clorox or Netflix, so far), but the majority will struggle. Because COVID-19 has only been known for four months (really just three, as the markets are concerned), investors can still imagine a V-shaped recovery. The chart below puts the U.S. stock market’s (S&P 500) performance from its recent peak in the context of past major bear markets.In this view, things have only begun. For instance, in the Great Depression, it took nearly three years from the peak to the trough. We are just four months into this. The stock markets went down through alternating waves of hopes (prices higher) and fears (prices lower). There will be many chapters to COVID-19. We are in the first one. The table below shows all of the bear-market rallies greater than 10% in the cycles identified above. There were several strong rallies. The average length of those rallies was about two months (1.8). The current rally has lasted a very similar 1.2 months (assuming 04/29/2020 was the peak).
What To Invest In? There is nothing wrong with cash. Today, we call money not being invested “cash,” but at one time, it was just called “savings.” The importance of savings is that the money is there more than it is growing. Japan has rediscovered this dynamic in the last 30 years. Despite cash earning nothing (and it won’t again for years), if you are in cash and the stock market falls, you get to buy it back cheaper. Having cash gives an investor the freedom to invest in opportunities as they arise and be the “buyer” in a buyer’s market. Don’t think you have to invest all your money to be productive. U.S. Treasury bonds will appreciate. They appreciate in price when yields fall and depreciate when yields rise. The more that yields move lower, the more that prices move higher. As an example, if the current 30-year Treasury’s yield were to drop from where it currently yields 1.33% (5/15/2020), to 0.75%, this bond would appreciate by 15%. If it dropped to a zero yield, it would appreciate 40%. These aren’t small returns. But bond prices decrease in the same proportion if rates were to rise. As has already happened in Japan and Germany, U.S. Treasury interest rates will fall well below zero as this crisis intensifies. This is why: Deflation will be the theme of the “90% economy” because it implies a 90% price. Meaning that if the economy is expected to operate 10% lower than before, supply and demand would suggest that prices (inflation) would be 10% lower too. I am not suggesting a one-time drop of 10%, but rather that there will be tremendous pressure towards lower prices (in aggregate that-is; individual sectors may have higher prices). But, it isn’t just the initial shock, there will continue to be deflationary pressure as long as the output gap is negative. That is going to take years and years to close. Deflation implies lower Treasury yields, because if prices are deflating at say 5% per year, a minus 4% yield on a Treasury would be valuable (as saving 1% over the alternative). Because of this, there is no limit to how negative Treasury rates can go, they are a function of inflation/deflation. Given the scale of COVID-19, the Fed (and other developed economy central banks) will need to cut short-term rates deeply negative. This will pull all Treasury yields lower. I can already hear the chorus of arguments (“it hasn’t worked!”, “it creates a liquidity trap!”, “it creates hyperinflation!”) Yes, there will be tremendous resistance, but a threshold exists where the importance of protecting an industry (money market managers, banking) will pale in comparison to the economic needs of the whole country. In other words, there is a point where the Fed will alienate creditors at-large for the bigger picture. There are two prominent voices calling for negative rates so far (below), but I suspect these voices will grow in number: Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University Ken Rogoff, “…the Fed could push most short-term interest rates across the economy to near or below zero. Europe and Japan already have tiptoed into negative rate territory. Suppose central banks pushed back against today’s flight into government debt by going further, cutting short-term policy rates to, say, -3% or lower.” 5/4/2020
Former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Naranya Kocherlakota, “Unprecedented situations require unprecedented actions. That’s why the U.S. Federal Reserve should fight a rapidly deepening recession by taking interest rates below zero for the first time ever.” 4/24/2020 But “yield curve control” is the Fed’s next-biggest tool and I suspect it will be used before negative rates because it is more palatable to the banking and money-market industries. “Yield curve control” is a fancy way of saying that the Fed could control longer-term interest rates like they do with short-term rates. Japan is currently doing it and the U.S. did it in the 1950s. The idea is to force term rates down to, or below, a certain threshold to encourage lending. For instance, the Fed could target the 10-year Treasury yield to be 0.25% and ensure it by committing to buy enough 10-year Treasury bonds to take it there. “Committing” is the key word because if the central bank is credible enough, it doesn’t always have prove it with real capital; the threat is enough for the market to take it there. Assuming the mortgage market was functioning normally, it could help get mortgage rates down to 1%. Anyone with a mortgage can imagine how helpful that would be. Some worry that the amount of stimulus the U.S. is spending will lead to hyper-inflation or equivalently, a weakened currency. The fiscal/monetary picture of the U.S. isn’t as extreme as it is made to be. Japan’s finances are a useful example of how far a super-power’s credit stretches. On almost any dimension, Japan’s finances are in worse shape than in the US, and yet their 10-year yield is 0.00% (see table below). Credit risk should show up first in Japan before we would see it in the U.S. They are the canary in the coal mine on this issue. All of these things combined portend a continuing U.S. Treasury bull market (lower yields) for a few more years. Then, once everyone has given up on the stock market and P/E ratios are in the single digits, it will be time to buy stocks. COVID-19 is the equivalent of a 300-year flood. It will be the theme of financial markets for an enduring horizon.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-22--Brainwashing and the New Vocabulary: 12 Words and Phrases I Never Want to Hear Again

Remember how after September 11th happened , there was that nasty bill that formed the TSA and authorized all sorts of surveillance against the American people and they called it , ironically , The Patriot Act ?
Of course , we knew then that the bill was anything but patriotic , however , that didn ’ t stop it from being passed and trampling all over the Constitution .
The word “ patriot ” was perverted by those in power who wanted everyone to fall into lockstep with the unconstitutional searches at airports and many other invasions into our privacy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that doesn ’ t mean what people think it means – it was all done in the name of “ security.
” If you ’ ve been watching any type of media coverage or reading articles , you ’ ve probably seen or heard a plethora of words and phrases which are currently being perverted due to the coronavirus pandemic .
I don ’ t know about you , but if I never heard “ safe ” or “ new normal ” again , I ’ d be a much happier person .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ brainwashed through repetition , that ’ s because they are .
Quite simply , these buzzwords and several others we ’ ll discuss are being used to indoctrinate the public .
As Joseph Goebbels , the Reich Minister of Propaganda of Nazi Germany , wrote : We ’ re incredibly divided right now and the words are being as fuel to the fiery arguments taking place both online and in-person , during altercations in which one party feels the other party is being callous and horrible .
Let ’ s take a look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a dozen words I ’ d like to have stricken from conversations , advertising , and the media .
While it ’ s absolutely true we ’ re never going “ back to normal ” like we were before the pandemic , there ’ s a “ new normal ” being foisted upon us which is blatantly fueled by fear .
Earlier on in the lockdown , I used this phrase a few times in reference to the economy .
Sorry about that .
The “ new normal ” is most often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unconstitutional or undignified rule that people in charge want us to find tolerable , like taped squares on the floor that we ’ re supposed to stand in while waiting in properly spaced lines .
You know how cats will curl up in a taped-off square on the floor as though it was a box ?
Now they want humans to do that for the privilege of buying alcohol or food .
Other bizarre “ new normal ” activities are having your temperature taken by someone brandishing an infrared thermometer gun , scurrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to avoid other humans like you ’ re playing some kind of weird game of tag , and publicly shaming those who don ’ t act terrified because they clearly hate old people .
We ’ re all in this together The saccharine phrases “ we ’ re all in this together ” or “ we ’ re all in this together…apart ” were bandied about early on in the lockdowns .
Celebrities serenaded us badly with John Lennon songs .
They made videos of themselves looking concerned at their mansions , telling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re all in this together.
” Except , of course , they still have millions of dollars in the bank and the rest of us weren ’ t supposed to go to work or open our businesses to make the money we need to survive .
Indeed , we all owe these celebrities an unfathomable debt of gratitude for reminding us that they , too , are “ in this together.
” Social media outlets even made little frames for your profile pictures bearing those wildly annoying words .
Articles encouraging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reminded us that everyone , rich or poor , was “ in this together ” too .
It ’ s just that the rich people were “ in this together ” on yachts and private islands while the rest of us crammed into the kitchen on Zoom meetings with our employers while banning our kids from streaming anything so we had enough internet .
How many times did you hear this phrase early in the lockdown ?
You probably lost count at umpteen million .
# StayHome was a viral hashtag on Twitter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ encouraging others to just “ stay home , ” and we were all told that if we didn ’ t “ stay home ” we were risking the lives of every person we loved and a few we hated because we were going to unconsciously spread the virus and kill people .
Clearly the only people who were asymptomatic were the a $ $ holes who wouldn ’ t “ stay home.
” They were COVID Marys and COVID Marks , thoughtlessly spreading illness to old people and kids with cancer merely because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home.
” In order to get us to all “ stay home ” stores in some states took to establishing what their government felt were “ essential ” purchases , and banning all other purchases even if you were already in the same store .
( More on the word “ essential ” in a moment . )
Thoughtless people didn ’ t realize if you only bought lettuce or a gallon of milk , you wouldn ’ t pass on your cooties .
Cooties were only passed when you bought duvet covers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ makes me want to snarl viciously at those using it is “ social distancing.
” I ’ ll admit , I ’ ve always had an invisible personal space bubble I don ’ t like having invaded , but the whole social distancing thing means now that stores have arrows telling you which way you can walk down an aisle and the afore-mentioned taped boxes or Xs on the floor for standing in an appropriately social-distanced line .
Due to “ social distancing ” we spent months being unable to visit with loved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or go into the liquor store aisles to select our own much-needed whiskey .
We ’ ll continue socially distancing in all sorts of ridiculous ways in the “ new normal ” future , with venues only allowing a small portion of their former capacity of customers inside at a time .
Hand in hand with social distancing is the phrase “ six feet.
” If someone gets too close to you in the store , you can shout angrily from behind your mask , “ Six feet , mofo !
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Six feet is the gold standard , the protective bubble that keeps you “ safe ” from getting COVID 19 when you can ’ t “ stay home.
” All those Xs on the floor of stores are measured out to be six feet apart .
Children returning to school will have to stay six feet away from other children while marching around the playground in dismal formation .
Offices are being redesigned so everyone can stay six feet away from everyone else .
The word “ essential ” has also been corrupted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working throughout the entire lockdown , it ’ s because you were an “ essential ” worker doing an “ essential ” job .
“ Essential ” was defined separately by the governor of each state , so it varied from place to place .
My daughter , who works in a beauty supply store , was initially not “ essential ” but a month in when everyone ’ s roots began to show , she became essential and got the travel papers to prove it .
The word “ essential ” was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government felt were important enough for you to be allowed to make in person , and for trips outside the home .
It was “ essential ” to go to the grocery store , the doctor , the pharmacy , and out to walk your dog .
However , the dog had to be walked on neighborhood streets with all the other people essentially walking their dogs , instead of on a trail out in the forest alone , because the trails were closed because they weren ’ t essential .
Depending on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you may have heard the word “ pivot ” until you wanted to vomit .
Small businesses were super-busy “ pivoting ” to try and stay afloat while loans meant for them went to billionaires and giant corporations .
You could “ pivot ’ by manufacturing something else – something “ essential ” like hand sanitizer – or by offering delivery or curbside pickup of your products .
Some of the “ pivoting ” was just different marketing .
Buy this laundry soap , because we ’ re washing clothes for healthcare workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because we support essential workers .
Buy from us because here ’ s how we ’ re keeping our employees safe .
Other “ pivots ” were allowing people to work from home , supporting your customers in different ways , and selling goods from an appropriate social distance , like literally selling new vehicles over the internet and dropping them off in people ’ s driveways .
How many emails could possibly have the subject line starting with “ in these uncertain times ” or “ in these unprecedented times ” ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I can ’ t enumerate how many emails I got assuring me that various companies had my back in these “ uncertain times.
” Everyone from Victoria ’ s Secret to my internet service provider sent me a message letting me know how they were doing business in these “ unprecedented times.
” Car brands had commercials about why you needed a particular vehicle during these uncertain times because we all definitely need a new car while the business that employs us is trying to pivot .
Articles had headlines about handling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I too had an article about uncertainty early in the crisis .
Again , sorry I used that word .
The continued use of this word makes people eager to latch on to anything that is “ certain.
” It makes them want to accept “ the new normal ” so they don ’ t have to be so “ uncertain.
” And since all this is “ unprecedented ” we have no idea what that “ new normal ” is going to be , so it can be anything , no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were first announced back in March , the entire goal was to “ flatten the curve.
” That meant that hospitals would not be overwhelmed like the hospitals in Italy and China .
Instead of a graph going straight up into the stratosphere , we ’ d have a gentle hill , spacing out the illnesses .
Everything became about “ flattening the curve.
” You can ’ t “ flatten the curve ” while going about your business .
CBS News explained ( while using 4 of our least favorite words and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the curve was flattened across the nation in April , that was no longer sufficient .
Many people are still stuck at home and many businesses are still unable to reopen .
The most overused word in this entire list of hijacked vocabulary has to be “ safe.
” If taking a shot every time you heard or read the word “ safe ” was a drinking game , we ’ d all be wasted by 9:30 am .
Out of all the words I never want to use again , “ safe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was already hijacked somewhat by the “ safe spaces ” nonsense where people were supposed to go when they felt vulnerable because somebody said something mean or wore a MAGA hat around them .
Now , “ safe ” has crossed the Rubicon .
Every other article on the internet is about remaining “ safe.
” Church marquees want you to stay away from service to be “ safe.
” Instead of saying “ bye ” or “ see ya later , ” the salutation when someone is leaving is now an implorement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that used to be okay but now aren ’ t safe are : kids playing at a playground , adults shaking hands with other adults when doing business , going for a hike , eating at a table in a restaurant , getting your hair cut , or basically having fun in any way beyond playing a wild game of Scrabble against those with whom you are “ staying at home.
” You all know that Ben Franklin quote about safety and liberty .
I ’ m not even going to quote it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread ” and “ wash your hands ” While not used quite to the same dizzying level as the words above , I ’ m also pretty sick of hearing about “ curbing the spread ” of the coronavirus and “ washing my hands.
” First of all , every business that sent me an “ uncertain ” or “ unprecedented ” email wanted me to know what they were doing to “ curb the spread ” of the virus .
Every White House or gubernatorial press conference explained with deep sincerity how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ curb of the spread ” of COVID19 .
( Of course , they also said the lockdown was only going to be for 2 weeks , and here we are finally emerging 60 days later in some parts of the country , almost as long a time as I predicted in the analysis I wrote back in March when a whole bunch of readers said I was nuts and angrily unsubscribed .
Let me also note that the lockdown has not yet been completely lifted in several highly populated parts of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already washing my hands , thank you very much .
If you need to be told to wash your hands as an adult , you clearly missed out on some important childhood lessons .
This is what brainwashing is like .
If you ever wondered what it was like brainwashing somebody , this is what it ’ s like .
Having the same words used over and over , words that used to mean something , until they begin to come out of your mouth too .
When you consistently hear these phrases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used to incite irrational fear , that ’ s brainwashing .
I ’ m not being a paranoid , tinfoil-tiara-wearing nutcase when I tell you that we ’ re all the targets of a mass media operation to make us accept this draconian outrageous “ new normal.
” When you hear things over and over again , when you hear a script coming from the mainstream media , from social media , your sucker of a neighbor who snitches on kids playing outside , and when every other article has one or more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s an agenda .
And that agenda is going to result in the loss of more freedom and the addition of more surveillance .
( Anyone looking for a contact tracing job ? )
I ’ m not saying that this virus wasn ’ t real or that it wasn ’ t a public health threat .
It was .
The fact that things didn ’ t get as bad as predicted doesn ’ t mean that the measures taken were entirely unnecessary – it means they worked .
But it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to be continued forever and ever .
However…as with all things , when the government gets a little bit of extra power and control , they become greedy for more .
They didn ’ t let this crisis go to waste , and they aren ’ t letting any grass grow under their feet while they plot to make all this nonsense permanent .
A fearful , indoctrinated populace is a populace that is easy to control .
What words are driving you nuts ?
What words or phrases make you want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using them ) into oncoming traffic ?
Maybe I ’ m just cranky after being locked up for 2 months , but I ’ m stunned all my teeth have survived without being cracked as I clench my jaw in annoyance every time I hear or read these phrases .
If you catch yourself using these words , please , for the love of kittens , STOP .
Stop perpetuating the propaganda .
And if I missed any of the new buzzwords that annoy the snot out of you , please let me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would you like to see stricken from public discourse ?
Daisy Luther writes about current events , preparedness , frugality , voluntaryism , and the pursuit of liberty on her website , The Organic Prepper .
She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site , PreppersDailyNews.com .
Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company .
You can find her on Facebook , Pinterest , and Twitter .

by Daisy Luther
Remember how after September 11th happened, there was that nasty bill that formed the TSA and authorized all sorts of surveillance against the American people and they called it, ironically, The Patriot Act?
Of course, we knew then that the bill was anything but patriotic, however, that didn’t stop it from being passed and trampling all over the Constitution. The word “patriot” was perverted by those in power who wanted everyone to fall into lockstep with the unconstitutional searches at airports and many other invasions into our privacy.
Which brings us to another word that doesn’t mean what people think it means – it was all done in the name of “security.”
If you’ve been watching any type of media coverage or reading articles, you’ve probably seen or heard a plethora of words and phrases which are currently being perverted due to the coronavirus pandemic. I don’t know about you, but if I never heard “safe” or “new normal” again, I’d be a much happier person.
If you feel like people are being brainwashed through repetition, that’s because they are. Quite simply, these buzzwords and several others we’ll discuss are being used to indoctrinate the public. As Joseph Goebbels, the Reich Minister of Propaganda of Nazi Germany, wrote:
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” (source)
We’re incredibly divided right now and the words are being as fuel to the fiery arguments taking place both online and in-person, during altercations in which one party feels the other party is being callous and horrible.
Let’s take a look at this hostile takeover of our vocabulary with a dozen words I’d like to have stricken from conversations, advertising, and the media.
The new normal
While it’s absolutely true we’re never going “back to normal” like we were before the pandemic, there’s a “new normal” being foisted upon us which is blatantly fueled by fear. Earlier on in the lockdown, I used this phrase a few times in reference to the economy. Sorry about that.
The “new normal” is most often used to get people to accept whatever unconstitutional or undignified rule that people in charge want us to find tolerable, like taped squares on the floor that we’re supposed to stand in while waiting in properly spaced lines. You know how cats will curl up in a taped-off square on the floor as though it was a box? Now they want humans to do that for the privilege of buying alcohol or food.
Other bizarre “new normal” activities are having your temperature taken by someone brandishing an infrared thermometer gun, scurrying around in a mask in stores trying to avoid other humans like you’re playing some kind of weird game of tag, and publicly shaming those who don’t act terrified because they clearly hate old people.
We’re all in this together
The saccharine phrases “we’re all in this together” or “we’re all in this together…apart” were bandied about early on in the lockdowns. Celebrities serenaded us badly with John Lennon songs. They made videos of themselves looking concerned at their mansions, telling us not to worry, because “we’re all in this together.” Except, of course, they still have millions of dollars in the bank and the rest of us weren’t supposed to go to work or open our businesses to make the money we need to survive.
Indeed, we all owe these celebrities an unfathomable debt of gratitude for reminding us that they, too, are “in this together.”
Social media outlets even made little frames for your profile pictures bearing those wildly annoying words. Articles encouraging us to hunker down in our homes reminded us that everyone, rich or poor, was “in this together” too. It’s just that the rich people were “in this together” on yachts and private islands while the rest of us crammed into the kitchen on Zoom meetings with our employers while banning our kids from streaming anything so we had enough internet.
Stay home.
Stay home. Just stay home.
How many times did you hear this phrase early in the lockdown? You probably lost count at umpteen million. #StayHome was a viral hashtag on Twitter, people ended social media status updates encouraging others to just “stay home,” and we were all told that if we didn’t “stay home” we were risking the lives of every person we loved and a few we hated because we were going to unconsciously spread the virus and kill people.
Clearly the only people who were asymptomatic were the a$$holes who wouldn’t “stay home.” They were COVID Marys and COVID Marks, thoughtlessly spreading illness to old people and kids with cancer merely because they wouldn’t just “stay home.”
In order to get us to all “stay home” stores in some states took to establishing what their government felt were “essential” purchases, and banning all other purchases even if you were already in the same store. (More on the word “essential” in a moment.) Thoughtless people didn’t realize if you only bought lettuce or a gallon of milk, you wouldn’t pass on your cooties. Cooties were only passed when you bought duvet covers or garden seeds.
Jeez. Stay home, you jerks.
Social distancing
Another phrase that makes me want to snarl viciously at those using it is “social distancing.” I’ll admit, I’ve always had an invisible personal space bubble I don’t like having invaded, but the whole social distancing thing means now that stores have arrows telling you which way you can walk down an aisle and the afore-mentioned taped boxes or Xs on the floor for standing in an appropriately social-distanced line.
Due to “social distancing” we spent months being unable to visit with loved ones, go into restaurants to eat, or go into the liquor store aisles to select our own much-needed whiskey. We’ll continue socially distancing in all sorts of ridiculous ways in the “new normal” future, with venues only allowing a small portion of their former capacity of customers inside at a time.
Six feet
Hand in hand with social distancing is the phrase “six feet.” If someone gets too close to you in the store, you can shout angrily from behind your mask, “Six feet, mofo!” and it’s perfectly acceptable. Six feet is the gold standard, the protective bubble that keeps you “safe” from getting COVID 19 when you can’t “stay home.”
All those Xs on the floor of stores are measured out to be six feet apart. Children returning to school will have to stay six feet away from other children while marching around the playground in dismal formation. Offices are being redesigned so everyone can stay six feet away from everyone else.
Essential
The word “essential” has also been corrupted. If you were able to keep working throughout the entire lockdown, it’s because you were an “essential” worker doing an “essential” job. “Essential” was defined separately by the governor of each state, so it varied from place to place. My daughter, who works in a beauty supply store, was initially not “essential” but a month in when everyone’s roots began to show, she became essential and got the travel papers to prove it.
The word “essential” was also used to describe purchases that the government felt were important enough for you to be allowed to make in person, and for trips outside the home. It was “essential” to go to the grocery store, the doctor, the pharmacy, and out to walk your dog. However, the dog had to be walked on neighborhood streets with all the other people essentially walking their dogs, instead of on a trail out in the forest alone, because the trails were closed because they weren’t essential.
Pivot
Depending on the business you’re in, you may have heard the word “pivot” until you wanted to vomit. Small businesses were super-busy “pivoting” to try and stay afloat while loans meant for them went to billionaires and giant corporations. You could “pivot’ by manufacturing something else – something “essential” like hand sanitizer – or by offering delivery or curbside pickup of your products.
Some of the “pivoting” was just different marketing. Buy this laundry soap, because we’re washing clothes for healthcare workers in it. Buy our car, because we support essential workers. Buy from us because here’s how we’re keeping our employees safe.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Other “pivots” were allowing people to work from home, supporting your customers in different ways, and selling goods from an appropriate social distance, like literally selling new vehicles over the internet and dropping them off in people’s driveways.
Uncertain or unprecedented times
How many emails could possibly have the subject line starting with “in these uncertain times” or “in these unprecedented times”?
It turns out, a whole lot. I can’t enumerate how many emails I got assuring me that various companies had my back in these “uncertain times.” Everyone from Victoria’s Secret to my internet service provider sent me a message letting me know how they were doing business in these “unprecedented times.”
Car brands had commercials about why you needed a particular vehicle during these uncertain times because we all definitely need a new car while the business that employs us is trying to pivot. Articles had headlines about handling these “uncertain times.” I confess, I too had an article about uncertainty early in the crisis. Again, sorry I used that word.
The continued use of this word makes people eager to latch on to anything that is “certain.” It makes them want to accept “the new normal” so they don’t have to be so “uncertain.” And since all this is “unprecedented” we have no idea what that “new normal” is going to be, so it can be anything, no matter how draconian.
Flatten the curve
When the lockdowns were first announced back in March, the entire goal was to “flatten the curve.” That meant that hospitals would not be overwhelmed like the hospitals in Italy and China. Instead of a graph going straight up into the stratosphere, we’d have a gentle hill, spacing out the illnesses.
Everything became about “flattening the curve.” You can’t “flatten the curve” while going about your business. CBS News explained (while using 4 of our least favorite words and phrases):
Communities are being urged to practice social distancing, some schools are closing, sports and cultural events are being canceled, and companies are asking employees to work from home — even if they’re not experiencing coronavirus symptoms. Many are wondering why they are essentially self-quarantined despite the fact that they’re not sick. The answer has to do with “flattening the curve” — an answer that could leave some people confused. You’ve likely seen “flattening the curve” graphs being used in articles and shared on social media as a way to explain the importance of responding aggressively to curb the spread of the coronavirus. But what does it mean to flatten the curve, and how do we do it? Friday on “CBS This Morning,” CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook explained what has become a buzzword in the wake of the outbreak. “Is it really worth while to do all of this social distancing and hand washing? The answer is yes,” Dr. LaPook said. “Normally, right now — without any measures — the epidemic might go up [sharply] and go down. That peak number of cases could overload the system and that’s what people are worried about.” (source)
Unfortunately, even after the curve was flattened across the nation in April, that was no longer sufficient. Many people are still stuck at home and many businesses are still unable to reopen.
Safe
The most overused word in this entire list of hijacked vocabulary has to be “safe.”
If taking a shot every time you heard or read the word “safe” was a drinking game, we’d all be wasted by 9:30 am. Out of all the words I never want to use again, “safe” is the penultimate. The word was already hijacked somewhat by the “safe spaces” nonsense where people were supposed to go when they felt vulnerable because somebody said something mean or wore a MAGA hat around them.
Now, “safe” has crossed the Rubicon. Every other article on the internet is about remaining “safe.” Church marquees want you to stay away from service to be “safe.” Instead of saying “bye” or “see ya later,” the salutation when someone is leaving is now an implorement to “stay safe.”
Some things that used to be okay but now aren’t safe are: kids playing at a playground, adults shaking hands with other adults when doing business, going for a hike, eating at a table in a restaurant, getting your hair cut, or basically having fun in any way beyond playing a wild game of Scrabble against those with whom you are “staying at home.”
You all know that Ben Franklin quote about safety and liberty. I’m not even going to quote it.
Dishonorable mentions: “curbing the spread” and “wash your hands”
While not used quite to the same dizzying level as the words above, I’m also pretty sick of hearing about “curbing the spread” of the coronavirus and “washing my hands.”
First of all, every business that sent me an “uncertain” or “unprecedented” email wanted me to know what they were doing to “curb the spread” of the virus. Every White House or gubernatorial press conference explained with deep sincerity how following all the rules would result in a “curb of the spread” of COVID19. (Of course, they also said the lockdown was only going to be for 2 weeks, and here we are finally emerging 60 days later in some parts of the country, almost as long a time as I predicted in the analysis I wrote back in March when a whole bunch of readers said I was nuts and angrily unsubscribed. Let me also note that the lockdown has not yet been completely lifted in several highly populated parts of the US.)
And I was already washing my hands, thank you very much. If you need to be told to wash your hands as an adult, you clearly missed out on some important childhood lessons.
This is what brainwashing is like.
If you ever wondered what it was like brainwashing somebody, this is what it’s like. Having the same words used over and over, words that used to mean something, until they begin to come out of your mouth too. When you consistently hear these phrases and the opposite of these phrases is used to incite irrational fear, that’s brainwashing.
I’m not being a paranoid, tinfoil-tiara-wearing nutcase when I tell you that we’re all the targets of a mass media operation to make us accept this draconian outrageous “new normal.” When you hear things over and over again, when you hear a script coming from the mainstream media, from social media, your sucker of a neighbor who snitches on kids playing outside, and when every other article has one or more of these words in the headline, there’s an agenda.
And that agenda is going to result in the loss of more freedom and the addition of more surveillance. (Anyone looking for a contact tracing job?)
I’m not saying that this virus wasn’t real or that it wasn’t a public health threat. It was. The fact that things didn’t get as bad as predicted doesn’t mean that the measures taken were entirely unnecessary – it means they worked. But it doesn’t mean that those measures need to be continued forever and ever.
However…as with all things, when the government gets a little bit of extra power and control, they become greedy for more. They didn’t let this crisis go to waste, and they aren’t letting any grass grow under their feet while they plot to make all this nonsense permanent.
A fearful, indoctrinated populace is a populace that is easy to control.
What words are driving you nuts?
What words or phrases make you want to fling yourself (or the person using them) into oncoming traffic?
Maybe I’m just cranky after being locked up for 2 months, but I’m stunned all my teeth have survived without being cracked as I clench my jaw in annoyance every time I hear or read these phrases.
If you catch yourself using these words, please, for the love of kittens, STOP. Stop perpetuating the propaganda. And if I missed any of the new buzzwords that annoy the snot out of you, please let me know in the comments. Which words would you like to see stricken from public discourse?
About Daisy
Daisy Luther writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company. You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-22--DoorDash Uses COVID-19 As An Excuse To Track Customers’ Locations

Tired of being cooped up at home for 6+ weeks because of the pandemic ?
Well DoorDash wants to know who you are .
If you are like most Americans , you have probably used a delivery or pickup service like Postmates , Uber Eats , DoorDash and Grubhub in those 6+ weeks .
But now DoorDash wants to let businesses know exactly where you are in real-time .
A recent CNET article reveals that customers can opt to share their location with merchants .
Sometimes you just have to shake your head and laugh at the number of ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to track people in real-time .
A look at the DoorDash app page reveals no such warnings about opting in .
It mentions “ No-Contact Delivery ” and it mentions “ Real-Time Tracking ” but that is for customers to track deliveries .
Under their “ What ’ s New ” section DoorDash lists minor updates and performance improvements that happened on May 19th.
, 2020 and that is it .
There is nothing on their app page that would tell customers that they can opt in or opt out of being tracked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ Family Sharing ” option which allows six family members to use the app .
In a country gripped with fear , why not let DoorDash and local businesses track your families locations ?
In fact why not just give them the IP , and MAC addresses of your families phones ?
DoorDash ’ s privacy policy page reveals exactly how they feel about using their app to track you and your family .
“ Our Services may change from time to time .
As a result , we reserve the right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any time and from time to time without prior notice .
If we make any material changes to the way we process your Personal Information , we will notify you before such changes are effective .
If you object to any changes you must cease using our Services .
We recommend you review this Policy periodically .
This Policy became effective on the date indicated at the top of this page .
Your continued use of our Services after any changes or revisions to this Policy indicates your agreement to the terms of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caveat , we can make any material changes we want to how we track customers and if you don ’ t like it , stop using our service .
And that is exactly how every food delivery and pickup service app works in a nutshell .
DoorDash ’ s “ Location Information ” section does a slightly better job of revealing how their app tracks everyone ’ s phones .
“ When you use the Services , we may collect general location information ( such as IP address ) .
If you permit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the permission system used by your mobile operating system ( “ Platform ” ) or browser , we may also collect the precise location of your device when the DoorDash app is running in the foreground or background of your device .
This information may be used to help you select your delivery address , to provide more accurate deliveries of your orders , to provide recommendations to you , and to enhance your user experience and improve the services.
” This is important because if you signed up for the “ Family @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s cell phone regardless of their age .
How is that for a minor update ?
Remember corporations have no obligation to stop tracking you and your family .
Stooping to using the pandemic as an excuse to justify tracking everyone ’ s location is standard operating procedure for corporations .
So if you do not want to be tracked , do not use food delivery and pickup service apps .
Go to your local restaurants ’ website and phone in your order , then drive down and pick it up .

by mapi
Tired of being cooped up at home for 6+ weeks because of the pandemic? Well DoorDash wants to know who you are.
If you are like most Americans, you have probably used a delivery or pickup service like Postmates, Uber Eats, DoorDash and Grubhub in those 6+ weeks.
But now DoorDash wants to let businesses know exactly where you are in real-time.
A recent CNET article reveals that customers can opt to share their location with merchants.
“Customers can now opt to share their location with merchants while the DoorDash app is running, so restaurants can be alerted when the customer is approaching and have the food ready on arrival. DoorDash hopes the addition will eliminate customers gathering and waiting in stores for long periods of time to adhere to social distancing guidelines.”
Sometimes you just have to shake your head and laugh at the number of ways corporations use a pandemic as an excuse to track people in real-time.
A look at the DoorDash app page reveals no such warnings about opting in. It mentions “No-Contact Delivery” and it mentions “Real-Time Tracking” but that is for customers to track deliveries.
“See when your order will arrive. From food quality to prep-times to traffic to weather, we’ve factored in all the elements that come between you and your food.”
Under their “What’s New” section DoorDash lists minor updates and performance improvements that happened on May 19th., 2020 and that is it. There is nothing on their app page that would tell customers that they can opt in or opt out of being tracked in real-time.
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But it does have a “Family Sharing” option which allows six family members to use the app.
In a country gripped with fear, why not let DoorDash and local businesses track your families locations? In fact why not just give them the IP, and MAC addresses of your families phones?
DoorDash’s privacy policy page reveals exactly how they feel about using their app to track you and your family.
“Our Services may change from time to time. As a result, we reserve the right to update or modify this Policy at any time and from time to time without prior notice. If we make any material changes to the way we process your Personal Information, we will notify you before such changes are effective. If you object to any changes you must cease using our Services. We recommend you review this Policy periodically. This Policy became effective on the date indicated at the top of this page. Your continued use of our Services after any changes or revisions to this Policy indicates your agreement to the terms of the revised Policy.“
There is the caveat, we can make any material changes we want to how we track customers and if you don’t like it, stop using our service. And that is exactly how every food delivery and pickup service app works in a nutshell.
DoorDash’s “Location Information” section does a slightly better job of revealing how their app tracks everyone’s phones.
“When you use the Services, we may collect general location information (such as IP address). If you permit the Services to access location services through the permission system used by your mobile operating system (“Platform”) or browser, we may also collect the precise location of your device when the DoorDash app is running in the foreground or background of your device. This information may be used to help you select your delivery address, to provide more accurate deliveries of your orders, to provide recommendations to you, and to enhance your user experience and improve the services.”
This is important because if you signed up for the “Family Sharing” option it can track everyone’s cell phone regardless of their age. How is that for a minor update?
Remember corporations have no obligation to stop tracking you and your family. Stooping to using the pandemic as an excuse to justify tracking everyone’s location is standard operating procedure for corporations. So if you do not want to be tracked, do not use food delivery and pickup service apps. Go to your local restaurants’ website and phone in your order, then drive down and pick it up.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--Why California Is In Trouble: 340,000 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $45 B

Why California Is In Trouble: 340,000 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $45 Billion

Despite California ’ s $ 54 billion budget deficit and $ 1 trillion unfunded pension liability , there are 340,390 government employees bringing home six-figure salary and pension checks .
Recently , though , Gov .
Gavin Newsom asked U.S. taxpayers for a bailout .
The governor wrote a letter to Congress requesting $ 1 trillion in coronavirus 50-state aid .
Then , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi obliged by adding $ 500 billion for the states into the HEROES Act – the bill passed and now awaits action in the Senate .
Here , in part , is why California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ auditors at OpentheBooks.com found truck drivers in San Francisco making $ 159,000 per year ; lifeguards in LA County costing taxpayers $ 365,000 ; nurses at UCSF making up to $ 501,000 ; the UCLA athletic director earning $ 1.8 million ; and 1,420 city employees out-earning all 50 state governors ( $ 202,000 ) .
Using our new interactive mapping tool , quickly review ( by ZIP code ) the 340,390 California public employees and retirees who earn more than $ 100,000 and cost taxpayers $ 45 billion ( FY2018-9 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see the results rendered in the chart beneath the map .
Here are a few examples of what you ’ ll uncover : • 109,627 teachers and school administrators – including the CEO of Summit Everest charter schools Diane Tavenner ( $ 450,115 ) ; and superintendents Michael Lin ( $ 443,875 ) at Corona-Norco Unified ; Polly Bove ( $ 395,257 ) at Fremont Union High ; Christopher Hoffman ( $ 351,885 ) at Elk Grove Unified ; and Al Mijares ( $ 348,276 ) at the Orange County Dept .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ university employees – including the athletic director at UCLA , Daniel Guerrero ( $ 1.8 million ) , who is retiring amid criticisms that his teams lost too frequently .
The school ’ s football coach , Charles ( Chip ) Kelly ( $ 3.3 million ) , compiled a 7-17 record during his first two years and is the most highly compensated public employee in the state .
Furthermore , there are 11,310 college and university employees making more than $ 200,000 .
• 62,204 State of California employees – including a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University of California , who made $ 501,391 – paid through the state system .
David Winsor Sirkin , Sr. Psychiatrist at Correctional & Rehabilitative Services , made $ 409,399 .
Corrections paid two dentists $ 385,596 last year .
The chief regulator at barbering & cosmetology made $ 124,296 .
• 45,718 city and town employees – including 1,420 municipal administrators and employees who out-earned the California governor – the highest paid state governor ( $ 202,000 ) .
Highly compensated city managers included Deanna Santana ( Santa Clara – $ 396,158 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — $ 353,603 ) ; Fredrick Cole ( Santa Monica – $ 342,780 ) ; David Ready ( Palm Springs – $ 340,149 ) ; Edward Shikada ( Palo Alto – $ 329,080 ) ; and Scott Ochoa ( Ontario – $ 328,500 ) .
Reaching out to all governments mentioned , Santa Clara responded saying that their city is complex and they compete for talent in Silicon Valley .
Palm Springs responded by saying the city manager is cutting his pay by 20-percent to $ 288,579 .
In 2017 , we found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost taxpayers between $ 200,000 and $ 365,000 .
Today , it ’ s worse with salaries comprising only about half the total cost when including overtime , extra pay and benefits .
In total , $ 45 billion in cash compensation flows to local and state government workers across California earning six figures .
Our auditors did not include the cost of benefits .
We also haven ’ t included the payroll costs of at least 28,000 federal employees making $ 100,000+ within the executive agencies based in California .
San Francisco @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Mohammed Nuru , Public Works Director , is best known for failed efforts to keep feces and hypodermic needles out of the public way .
Cases of human waste on city streets spiked to 31,000 in 2019 – an all-time high .
Nuru earned a $ 269,500 annual salary in 2018 ( up $ 55,000 over a seven-year period ) .
Allegedly , that wasn ’ t enough .
In February , Nuru was arrested for charges that included bribery .
Only in San Francisco can team members on the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 184,000 each .
In the community college system , 10,807 employees made six figures and 247 made more than $ 200,000 last year .
Edward Hernandez , Jr. ( Rancho Santiago – $ 325,799 ) and Francis Gorrick ( West Hills – $ 316,034 ) have the highest pensions .
In 2015 , stakeholders criticized then-president of El Camino College Thomas Fallo for his $ 345,000 “ supersized ” salary .
Fallo retired and receives a $ 314,021 pension .
K-12 payrolls show 109,627 teachers and administrators earned over $ 100,000 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compensated educators are currently employed , and the other 15,735 are retired with six-figure pensions .
Ten educators hit the pension jackpot and retired on $ 300,000+ .
These include : William Habermehl ( Orange County Dept .
of Education – $ 380,096 ) ; Richard Bray ( Tustin Unified School District – $ 329,826 ) ; Virginia Shattuck , ( Norwalk–La Mirada Unified School District – $ 327,139 ) ; James Smith ( Evergreen Elementary – $ 309,725 ) ; and Richard Miller ( Santa Anna Unified— $ 305,066 ) .
All @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gravy train .
Private associations , nonprofit organizations , and former lawmakers have gamed the system for personal gain .
• Assemblyman Jim Cooper ( D-Elk Grove ) is double dipping the pay and pension systems .
Retired at age 50 from the Sacramento County Sheriff , Cooper earned a $ 173,820 pension .
He makes $ 107,242 as an elected member of the general assembly – although he refused the non-taxable per diem that ’ s estimated at $ 39,000 a year .
Total benefit : $ 281,162 • Who knew that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campuses pay their administrators up to $ 206,000 and their pensions are guaranteed by taxpayers ?
The union at UCLA – Associated Students , Inc. – paid four administrators between $ 191,000 and $ 206,000 last year .
There are 52 student union administrators across the state who made six figures last year .
Retirees received pensions up to $ 136,000 .
• Government “ associations ” of all types are dialed into the public pension system .
These associations are organized as “ non-profits ” and include associations of governments , school @ @ @ @ @ @ @ special districts , and even flood control associations .
We found 314 six-figure administrators who run these government associations , which are funded by taxpayers for $ 44 million a year .
The most highly compensated was Darin Chidsey { Southern California Association of Governments ( SCAG ) – $ 289,109 } .
SCAG responded to our request for comment saying they are “ the nation ’ s largest metropolitan planning organization ” and located in “ a very competitive job market.
” In the City of Fremont , nearly 700 six-figure employees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The city attorney , Harvey Levine , was the highest earner at $ 291,031 .
Even the animal services manager cost taxpayers up to $ 130,000 with over four weeks of PTO , pension , and additional retirement annuity benefits – in the first year of employment .
The Sanitation District of Los Angeles has a history of spiking salaries to pad pensions .
In fact , four of the top five all-time sanitation high earners are either currently employed or retired from this district : Stephen Maguin ( $ 366,387 – pension @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 329,131 – salary ) ; James Stahl ( $ 321,838 – pension ) ; and Robert Ferrante ( $ 306,552 – salary ) .
The sanitation district responded to our request for comment saying that all laws with respect to compensation were followed and “ pension spiking ” is not allowed .
However , we noticed that some of those retirement pensions exceed current salaries .
Before the COVID-19 crisis , state and local governments in California were plausibly operating .
Now , with tax revenues dropping , underlying financial weaknesses are being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fiscal reformers , Gov .
Newsom proposed a 10-percent across-the-board reduction in state employee salaries along with state agency budget cuts of five percent .
However , the governor admitted that if the federal government sends states more aid , then the salary reductions will be restored .
California , in other words , like many states with excessive pay and pension costs , is relying on the U.S. taxpayer to see them through crisis .

Submitted by Adam Andrzejewski,
Despite California’s $54 billion budget deficit and $1 trillion unfunded pension liability, there are 340,390 government employees bringing home six-figure salary and pension checks. Recently, though, Gov. Gavin Newsom asked U.S. taxpayers for a bailout.
The governor wrote a letter to Congress requesting $1 trillion in coronavirus 50-state aid. Then, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi obliged by adding $500 billion for the states into the HEROES Act – the bill passed and now awaits action in the Senate.
Here, in part, is why California is asking for taxpayers help.
Our auditors at OpentheBooks.com found truck drivers in San Francisco making $159,000 per year; lifeguards in LA County costing taxpayers $365,000; nurses at UCSF making up to $501,000; the UCLA athletic director earning $1.8 million; and 1,420 city employees out-earning all 50 state governors ($202,000).
Using our new interactive mapping tool, quickly review (by ZIP code) the 340,390 California public employees and retirees who earn more than $100,000 and cost taxpayers $45 billion (FY2018-9). Just click a pin and scroll down to see the results rendered in the chart beneath the map.
Here are a few examples of what you’ll uncover:
109,627 teachers and school administrators – including the CEO of Summit Everest charter schools Diane Tavenner ($450,115); and superintendents Michael Lin ($443,875) at Corona-Norco Unified; Polly Bove ($395,257) at Fremont Union High; Christopher Hoffman ($351,885) at Elk Grove Unified; and Al Mijares ($348,276) at the Orange County Dept. of Education.
66,403 college and university employees – including the athletic director at UCLA, Daniel Guerrero ($1.8 million), who is retiring amid criticisms that his teams lost too frequently. The school’s football coach, Charles (Chip) Kelly ($3.3 million), compiled a 7-17 record during his first two years and is the most highly compensated public employee in the state. Furthermore, there are 11,310 college and university employees making more than $200,000.
62,204 State of California employees – including a nurse, Ito Chikako, at the University of California, who made $501,391 – paid through the state system. David Winsor Sirkin, Sr. Psychiatrist at Correctional & Rehabilitative Services, made $409,399. Corrections paid two dentists $385,596 last year. The chief regulator at barbering & cosmetology made $124,296.
45,718 city and town employees – including 1,420 municipal administrators and employees who out-earned the California governor – the highest paid state governor ($202,000). Highly compensated city managers included Deanna Santana (Santa Clara – $396,158); Paul Arevalo (West Hollywood — $353,603); Fredrick Cole (Santa Monica – $342,780); David Ready (Palm Springs – $340,149); Edward Shikada (Palo Alto – $329,080); and Scott Ochoa (Ontario – $328,500).
Reaching out to all governments mentioned, Santa Clara responded saying that their city is complex and they compete for talent in Silicon Valley. Palm Springs responded by saying the city manager is cutting his pay by 20-percent to $288,579.
In 2017, we found that 44 lifeguards in Los Angeles County cost taxpayers between $200,000 and $365,000. Today, it’s worse with salaries comprising only about half the total cost when including overtime, extra pay and benefits.
In total, $45 billion in cash compensation flows to local and state government workers across California earning six figures. Our auditors did not include the cost of benefits.
We also haven’t included the payroll costs of at least 28,000 federal employees making $100,000+ within the executive agencies based in California.
Corruption In San Francisco
San Francisco’s self-titled “Mr. Clean,” Mohammed Nuru, Public Works Director, is best known for failed efforts to keep feces and hypodermic needles out of the public way. Cases of human waste on city streets spiked to 31,000 in 2019 – an all-time high.
Nuru earned a $269,500 annual salary in 2018 (up $55,000 over a seven-year period). Allegedly, that wasn’t enough. In February, Nuru was arrested for charges that included bribery.
Only in San Francisco can team members on the “poop patrol” cost taxpayers up to $184,000 each.
Mapping the San Francisco human waste challenge – 141,000 cases of human waste in the public way
Taxpayer-Expensive Educators
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In the community college system, 10,807 employees made six figures and 247 made more than $200,000 last year.
Edward Hernandez, Jr. (Rancho Santiago – $325,799) and Francis Gorrick (West Hills – $316,034) have the highest pensions. In 2015, stakeholders criticized then-president of El Camino College Thomas Fallo for his $345,000 “supersized” salary. Fallo retired and receives a $314,021 pension.
K-12 payrolls show 109,627 teachers and administrators earned over $100,000 per year. Nearly 94,000 of those highly compensated educators are currently employed, and the other 15,735 are retired with six-figure pensions.
Ten educators hit the pension jackpot and retired on $300,000+. These include: William Habermehl (Orange County Dept. of Education – $380,096); Richard Bray (Tustin Unified School District – $329,826); Virginia Shattuck, (Norwalk–La Mirada Unified School District – $327,139); James Smith (Evergreen Elementary – $309,725); and Richard Miller (Santa Anna Unified— $305,066).
Private associations, nonprofits, and lawmakers
All kinds of entities are jumping on the gravy train. Private associations, nonprofit organizations, and former lawmakers have gamed the system for personal gain.
Assemblyman Jim Cooper (D-Elk Grove) is double dipping the pay and pension systems. Retired at age 50 from the Sacramento County Sheriff, Cooper earned a $173,820 pension. He makes $107,242 as an elected member of the general assembly – although he refused the non-taxable per diem that’s estimated at $39,000 a year. Total benefit: $281,162
Who knew that the “student unions” on college campuses pay their administrators up to $206,000 and their pensions are guaranteed by taxpayers? The union at UCLA – Associated Students, Inc. – paid four administrators between $191,000 and $206,000 last year. There are 52 student union administrators across the state who made six figures last year. Retirees received pensions up to $136,000.
Government “associations” of all types are dialed into the public pension system. These associations are organized as “non-profits” and include associations of governments, school boards, water districts, utilities, special districts, and even flood control associations.
We found 314 six-figure administrators who run these government associations, which are funded by taxpayers for $44 million a year. The most highly compensated was Darin Chidsey {Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) – $289,109}.
SCAG responded to our request for comment saying they are “the nation’s largest metropolitan planning organization” and located in “a very competitive job market.”
Highly Compensated Locals
In the City of Fremont, nearly 700 six-figure employees made $91 million last year. The city attorney, Harvey Levine, was the highest earner at $291,031. Even the animal services manager cost taxpayers up to $130,000 with over four weeks of PTO, pension, and additional retirement annuity benefits – in the first year of employment.
The Sanitation District of Los Angeles has a history of spiking salaries to pad pensions. In fact, four of the top five all-time sanitation high earners are either currently employed or retired from this district: Stephen Maguin ($366,387 – pension); Grace Robinson Hyde ($329,131 – salary); James Stahl ($321,838 – pension); and Robert Ferrante ($306,552 – salary).
The sanitation district responded to our request for comment saying that all laws with respect to compensation were followed and “pension spiking” is not allowed. However, we noticed that some of those retirement pensions exceed current salaries.
Before the COVID-19 crisis, state and local governments in California were plausibly operating. Now, with tax revenues dropping, underlying financial weaknesses are being exposed.
In a move praised by fiscal reformers, Gov. Newsom proposed a 10-percent across-the-board reduction in state employee salaries along with state agency budget cuts of five percent.
However, the governor admitted that if the federal government sends states more aid, then the salary reductions will be restored.
California, in other words, like many states with excessive pay and pension costs, is relying on the U.S. taxpayer to see them through crisis.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--Facebook buys Giphy for $400 million, Microsoft Acquires Softmotive, Uber looking to buy Grubhub, Ap

Facebook buys Giphy for $400 million, Microsoft Acquires Softmotive, Uber looking to buy Grubhub, Apple buys Next VR for allegedly $100 million

Lots of acquisitions buy big tech this month , what are your thoughts ?

by EmployerOfTheMonth
Lots of acquisitions buy big tech this month, what are your thoughts?
www.axios.com/scoop-facebook-to-buy-giphy-for-400-million-4a75a359-833b-484d-b15b-87e94d3de017.html
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techcrunch.com/2020/05/19/microsoft-acquires-robotic-process-automation-platform-softomotive/
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/apple-acquires-startup-nextvr-to-gain-virtual-reality-content
www.reuters.com/article/us-grubhub-m-a-uber/uber-offer-for-grubhub-fans-worries-over-delivery-fees-charged-to-restaurants-idUSKBN22Q1Q4


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--Production Drops 80%, Money Supply Doubles = ???

Can We Say Hyperinflation ?
Get Food Now While We Can

Can We Say Hyperinflation? Get Food Now While We Can
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--The start-up economy is fundamentally broken. The virus will make it worse.

Luckily for you , Uber is there – because $ 25 billion is about what the company has lost since @ @ @ @ @ Lyft , the mattress company Casper , and dozens of other companies are following the @ @ @ @ @ generally treat both their suppliers and their workers like crap , but what is less @ @ @ @ @ Business model ” is undermining one of the basic premises of capitalism – the price @ @ @ @ @ driving many normal taxi companies out of business , Uber-style companies have sharply increased congestion @ @ @ @ @ have to make their accounting pencil out can ’ t tolerate that kind of waste @ @ @ @ @ The reason is that like most of their loss-making brethren , Uber is attempting to @ @ @ @ @ can then raise prices to their heart ’ s content .

theweek.com/articles/915265/startup-economy-fundamentally-broken-virus-make-worse
summarized
Luckily for you, Uber is there – because $25 billion is about what the company has lost since that date.
Uber competitor Lyft, the mattress company Casper, and dozens of other companies are following the same strategy.
These companies generally treat both their suppliers and their workers like crap, but what is less noticed is that their “Business model” is undermining one of the basic premises of capitalism – the price system.
In addition to driving many normal taxi companies out of business, Uber-style companies have sharply increased congestion.
Normal taxi companies that have to make their accounting pencil out can’t tolerate that kind of waste, but Uber does.
The reason is that like most of their loss-making brethren, Uber is attempting to create a monopoly so they can then raise prices to their heart’s content.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--WATCH LIVE: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks on U.S. Economy, 2:30PM EST

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a Federal Reserve virtual event on the U.S. economy and the coronavirus impact @

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a Federal Reserve virtual event on the U.S. economy and the coronavirus impact on
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--Retail has the largest long call option position in history. Citadel is about to take all their mone

Why would you not going into a long weekend max long call options with soaring unemployment , leaders of the @ @ @ @ @ pandemic spreading , and no announced earnings revisions .
Only thing I can think of @ @ @ @ @ and hell might get that

Retail has the largest long call option position in history. Citadel is about to take all their money. I can promise you that. — hks55 (@hks55) May 21, 2020
Why would you not going into a long weekend max long call options with soaring unemployment, leaders of the two biggest countries fighting, pandemic spreading, and no announced earnings revisions. Only thing I can think of more bullish is nuclear holocaust and hell might get that
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Why would you not going into a long weekend max long call options with soaring unemployment, leaders of the two biggest countries fighting, pandemic spreading, and no announced earnings revisions. Only thing I can think of more bullish is nuclear holocaust and hell might get that — hks55 (@hks55) May 21, 2020
Twitter sentiment (on stahks!) is getting bubblier than where it was in JAN-FEB pic.twitter.com/pO05iI3tok — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) May 21, 2020
There is a major disconnect between the economy, unemployment, future earnings, the stock market and REALITY. When that adjusts, watch out. Everyone gets crushed and it'll be swift. Just a heads up to small investors addicted to FOMO. — Just a guy (@Justaguy2727) May 21, 2020
Nearly 39M people have now filed for unemployment since March. 4.6M filed last week, including 2.2M under a new program for contractors or the self-employed. Surveys show about 20% of Americans say they don't think they can pay next month's rent or mortgage on time. pic.twitter.com/I5ZWdnUxXg — AJ+ (@ajplus) May 21, 2020
Former IMF chief economist says Fed’s bond-buying is ‘smoke and mirrors,’ doesn’t solve U.S. debt problems t.co/ZDYUU72cyV — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) May 21, 2020
Stocks don't care! Nor does Cramer. pic.twitter.com/bLaGOlhjlj — Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) May 21, 2020
This morning's Consumer Comfort Release remains wee awkward pic.twitter.com/BL8Usju4mI — Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) May 21, 2020
The Mall of America missed two months of payments for a $1.4 billion commercial mortgage-backed security t.co/l6hXkACXQl — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 21, 2020
PHILADELPHIA FED MAY BUSINESS INDEX -43.1 VS APR -56.6 — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) May 21, 2020
US Pres. Trump On Potential China Legislation On Hong Kong, Says If It Happens US Will Have A 'Very Strong Reaction' — LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 21, 2020
The FED creates a smoke and mirrors game to prop up Wall st. and confuse YOU into obedience!! 🤬👇 I explain in 1, simple, fast step! 🔥👍 pic.twitter.com/I1IAxZttO2 — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) May 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-21--SABOTAGE: New Jersey Gym That Opened Against Gestapo Orders Was Flooded With Sewage

ROGUE NEW JERSEY GYM SABOTAGED !
Sewer Backed Up with Paper Towels Even Though Facility Has No Paper Towels – @ @ @ @ @

ROGUE NEW JERSEY GYM SABOTAGED! Sewer Backed Up with Paper Towels Even Though Facility Has No Paper Towels – State Shuts Down Business!
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h/t CrsCrpr