investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--The Delusion of a Seamless Reopening Is About to be Obliterated

During the first wave of pandemic lockdowns , America became a rather surreal place .
The initial shock that I witnessed in average people in my area was disturbing .
Half the businesses in the region closed and a third of the grocery store shelves were empty .
The look in people ’ s faces was one of bewilderment and fear ; their eyes were like saucers , no one was staring into their cell phones as they usually do , and people huddled over their shopping carts like wild dogs protecting a carcass .
Luckily , this tension has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans have been assuming for the past couple months that the pandemic was going to fade away in the summer and that the “ reopening ” was permanent .
Sadly , this is a delusion that is going to bite people in the ass in the next month or two .
In “ The Economic Reopening Is A Fake-Out ” , published at the end of May , I stated : In “ Pandemic And Economic Collapse : The Next 60 Days ” , published in April , I predicted : My @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infection spikes in the summer as well as renewed lockdown restrictions , appears to have proven correct .
Currently , daily reported infections in the U.S. are at a record 50,000 per day and cases are rising in 40 out of 50 states .
Many of the new infection clusters are in more rural states that a lot of people thought had dodged the initial wave , including California .
There has been a massive rush of home buyers moving to rural and suburban America away from the cities .
The great migration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is rising yet again .
Protests such as those in Michigan over the lockdowns were overwhelmingly peaceful , yet liberty movement activists were demonized and accused of “ inciting violence ” and “ spreading the virus ” .
Some groups with left-leaning political agendas used the death of George Floyd to create civil unrest .
The mainstream media mostly lavished these groups with praise and refused to acknowledge that they might be spreading the virus .
The double standard is clear , but this is just the beginning .
As I have argued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ REAL public crisis will strike when the secondary lockdowns are enforced , either by state governments or the federal government .
Make no mistake , these orders are coming .
We can already see restriction in some states being implemented , though they refuse yet to call the situation a “ lockdown ” .
California has recently added 24 counties to its “ Covid watchlist ” , and most of these counties have added new restrictions , including many non-essential businesses being ordered to remain closed .
The governor of Arizona announced statewide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be a reopening at the end of July .
If the previous lockdown is any indication , this means the next reopening will probably not happen until early September .
Similar restrictions have been announced in Texas , Florida , Georgia , etc .
This is essentially a new shutdown that has not yet been officially called a “ shutdown ” .
So what does this mean for the U.S. economy going forward ?
Well , the first lockdowns caused an explosion in unemployment , with 40 million jobs lost on top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On top of that , you can add the 95 million people without work that are no longer counted on the rolls by the Bureau of Labor Statistics .
Only a portion of these jobs were regained when the reopening occurred .
According to Shadowstats.com , the real unemployment rate including U-6 measurements is 31 % – around the same level as it was during the Great Depression .
So far in 2020 , there have been 4,300 major retail store closings , added onto the thousands of businesses already hit in 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Retail Apocalypse ” .
Small business closings are harder to gauge at this time , but according to Yelp , over 41 % of their listed participants are announcing they are closing for good .
This outcome was easy to predict when it became clear that only 13 % to 18 % of businesses applying for the small business bailout loans received aid , and half of those businesses were actually large corporations What happens next ?
The companies that did survive the first phase lockdowns are now going to get hit again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of small businesses to either close permanently or announce bankruptcy over this summer and fall .
This means another huge surge in job losses in the service sector .
It ’ s important to remember that the U.S. economy is 70 % service based , and around 50 % of total jobs are provided by small businesses .
The lockdowns hit both these areas of our system mercilessly .
And , with most of the aid from the government bailouts being diverted to major corporations , it ’ s as if someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business pillar of support for our economy .
If you were attempting to drag the U.S. into an economic collapse , the Covid lockdowns are a perfect cover to make this happen .
Another economic threat is the slowdown in the supply chain .
There will be renewed shortages in many goods .
I have received numerous emails from readers who work in manufacturing , repair and acquisitions of vital parts for major companies who have told me that simple components , such as electronic and industrial parts that are required for factories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are almost gone .
Meaning they are not being produced overseas in places like China , either due to the pandemic or geopolitical conflict .
They tell me there is a maximum of two months before these components are completely gone .
The greater danger , however , is the higher likelihood of civil unrest .
I ’ ve heard many people suggest that Americans will “ never ” put up with another round of shutdowns .
I think it depends on the state you live in .
If you live in places @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or even Florida , the majority of people are going to conform to lockdowns even in the face of financial calamity .
Interior states with more conservatives are not as certain .
Regardless , I expect at least half the country to be shut down in the next few weeks , and those places that don ’ t shut down will be accused of “ selfishly endangering others ” .
As I have said many times since this crisis began , it does not matter how dangerous or deadly a virus is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ destruction and is not an acceptable response .
Of course , certain special interest groups benefit greatly from the increased fear and chaos that economic instability brings .
Right now , states like Georgia are pushing to stage the national guard to quell unrest , and I think this will spread to many places in the U.S. over the summer .
They know what is coming , and they are worried about people hitting the wall of poverty that is ahead and reacting angrily .
As the globalist Imperial College of London published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns to continue on and off for the next 18 months or more .
This is not going away , and after the next wave of lockdowns , most Americans are finally going to realize it .
Rather than promoting localized production , independent economies and self-sufficiency , the establishment is going to suggest martial law and medical tyranny as the solution to the pandemic problem .
In other words , they will demand total control over the population and the erasure of constitutional liberties in the name of “ the greater good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that downplayed the pandemic at the beginning of the year and refused to stop travel from China until it was too late .
They are also the same people who gave the Chinese millions of dollars to play around with the coronavirus at the Level 4 lab in Wuhan , which is the likely source of the current outbreak .
I ’ m not sure why ANYONE would want to give more power to the people that caused the crisis in the first place .
Three factors are working hand-in-hand to undermine U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ controls including the economic crash , civil unrest and the pandemic itself .
Understand that preparations to protect yourself and your family must be finalized NOW .
There will not be even a minor recovery after the next shutdown .
Brandon Smith has been an alternative economic and geopolitical analyst since 2006 and is the founder of Alt-Market.com .

From Brandon Smith
During the first wave of pandemic lockdowns, America became a rather surreal place. The initial shock that I witnessed in average people in my area was disturbing. Half the businesses in the region closed and a third of the grocery store shelves were empty. The look in people’s faces was one of bewilderment and fear; their eyes were like saucers, no one was staring into their cell phones as they usually do, and people huddled over their shopping carts like wild dogs protecting a carcass.
Luckily, this tension has subsided, but only because the majority of Americans have been assuming for the past couple months that the pandemic was going to fade away in the summer and that the “reopening” was permanent. Sadly, this is a delusion that is going to bite people in the ass in the next month or two.
In “The Economic Reopening Is A Fake-Out”, published at the end of May, I stated:
The restrictions will continue in major US population centers while rural areas have mostly opened with much fanfare. The end result of this will be a flood of city dwellers into rural towns looking for relief from more strict lockdown conditions. In about a month, we should expect new viral clusters in places where there was limited transmission. I suggest that before the 4th of July holiday, state governments and the Federal government will be talking about new lockdowns, using the predictable infection spike as an excuse.
I also noted:
Certainly, it appears that most Americans hate the lockdowns. But will they be fooled by the “reopening” into complacency for the next several weeks while the government gets ready to hit them with the next round of restrictions? Will they be so caught off guard they won’t know how to react? Imagine the economic devastation of just one more nationwide lockdown event? It will be carnage, and a lot of hope within the population will be lost.
In “Pandemic And Economic Collapse: The Next 60 Days”, published in April, I predicted:
The extent of the crisis will become much more clear in the next two months to the majority. The result will be civil unrest in the summer, likely followed by extreme poverty levels in the winter. No measure of “reopening” is going to do much to stop the avalanche that has already been started.
My position at the time, on secondary infection spikes in the summer as well as renewed lockdown restrictions, appears to have proven correct. Currently, daily reported infections in the U.S. are at a record 50,000 per day and cases are rising in 40 out of 50 states. Many of the new infection clusters are in more rural states that a lot of people thought had dodged the initial wave, including California. There has been a massive rush of home buyers moving to rural and suburban America away from the cities. The great migration has begun.
Subsequently, public anxiety is rising yet again. Protests such as those in Michigan over the lockdowns were overwhelmingly peaceful, yet liberty movement activists were demonized and accused of “inciting violence” and “spreading the virus”. Some groups with left-leaning political agendas used the death of George Floyd to create civil unrest. The mainstream media mostly lavished these groups with praise and refused to acknowledge that they might be spreading the virus.
The double standard is clear, but this is just the beginning.
As I have argued for the past few months, the REAL public crisis will strike when the secondary lockdowns are enforced, either by state governments or the federal government. Make no mistake, these orders are coming. We can already see restriction in some states being implemented, though they refuse yet to call the situation a “lockdown”.
California has recently added 24 counties to its “Covid watchlist”, and most of these counties have added new restrictions, including many non-essential businesses being ordered to remain closed.
The governor of Arizona announced statewide restrictions including business shutdowns, suggesting there may be a reopening at the end of July. If the previous lockdown is any indication, this means the next reopening will probably not happen until early September.
Similar restrictions have been announced in Texas, Florida, Georgia, etc. This is essentially a new shutdown that has not yet been officially called a “shutdown”.
So what does this mean for the U.S. economy going forward?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Well, the first lockdowns caused an explosion in unemployment, with 40 million jobs lost on top of around 11 million existing jobless. On top of that, you can add the 95 million people without work that are no longer counted on the rolls by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only a portion of these jobs were regained when the reopening occurred. According to Shadowstats.com, the real unemployment rate including U-6 measurements is 31% – around the same level as it was during the Great Depression.
So far in 2020, there have been 4,300 major retail store closings, added onto the thousands of businesses already hit in 2019 in what many are calling “The Retail Apocalypse”. Small business closings are harder to gauge at this time, but according to Yelp, over 41% of their listed participants are announcing they are closing for good.
This outcome was easy to predict when it became clear that only 13% to 18% of businesses applying for the small business bailout loans received aid, and half of those businesses were actually large corporations
What happens next? The companies that did survive the first phase lockdowns are now going to get hit again, hard. I expect another 50% of small businesses to either close permanently or announce bankruptcy over this summer and fall. This means another huge surge in job losses in the service sector.
It’s important to remember that the U.S. economy is 70% service based, and around 50% of total jobs are provided by small businesses. The lockdowns hit both these areas of our system mercilessly. And, with most of the aid from the government bailouts being diverted to major corporations, it’s as if someone was trying to deliberately crush the small business pillar of support for our economy. If you were attempting to drag the U.S. into an economic collapse, the Covid lockdowns are a perfect cover to make this happen.
Another economic threat is the slowdown in the supply chain. There will be renewed shortages in many goods. I have received numerous emails from readers who work in manufacturing, repair and acquisitions of vital parts for major companies who have told me that simple components, such as electronic and industrial parts that are required for factories to produce goods and repair goods, are almost gone. Meaning they are not being produced overseas in places like China, either due to the pandemic or geopolitical conflict. They tell me there is a maximum of two months before these components are completely gone.
The greater danger, however, is the higher likelihood of civil unrest. I’ve heard many people suggest that Americans will “never” put up with another round of shutdowns. I think it depends on the state you live in. If you live in places like California, Illinois, New York, or even Florida, the majority of people are going to conform to lockdowns even in the face of financial calamity. Interior states with more conservatives are not as certain. Regardless, I expect at least half the country to be shut down in the next few weeks, and those places that don’t shut down will be accused of “selfishly endangering others”.
As I have said many times since this crisis began, it does not matter how dangerous or deadly a virus is; shutting down the economy is assured destruction and is not an acceptable response.
Of course, certain special interest groups benefit greatly from the increased fear and chaos that economic instability brings. Right now, states like Georgia are pushing to stage the national guard to quell unrest, and I think this will spread to many places in the U.S. over the summer. They know what is coming, and they are worried about people hitting the wall of poverty that is ahead and reacting angrily.
As the globalist Imperial College of London published in March, the plan is for lockdowns to continue on and off for the next 18 months or more. This is not going away, and after the next wave of lockdowns, most Americans are finally going to realize it.
Rather than promoting localized production, independent economies and self-sufficiency, the establishment is going to suggest martial law and medical tyranny as the solution to the pandemic problem. In other words, they will demand total control over the population and the erasure of constitutional liberties in the name of “the greater good”.
These are the same people that downplayed the pandemic at the beginning of the year and refused to stop travel from China until it was too late. They are also the same people who gave the Chinese millions of dollars to play around with the coronavirus at the Level 4 lab in Wuhan, which is the likely source of the current outbreak. I’m not sure why ANYONE would want to give more power to the people that caused the crisis in the first place.
Three factors are working hand-in-hand to undermine U.S. stability and create a rationale for totalitarian controls including the economic crash, civil unrest and the pandemic itself. Understand that preparations to protect yourself and your family must be finalized NOW. There will not be even a minor recovery after the next shutdown.
Brandon Smith has been an alternative economic and geopolitical analyst since 2006 and is the founder of Alt-Market.com.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--I wonder what Terry Crews was going to say before CNN cuts him off here.

Terry Crews says he doesn ’ t want to move from one oppressor to the next .
Don Lemon asks @ @ @ @ @ would be , CNN edits crews response out .
I wonder what he was going @ @ @

Terry Crews says he doesn’t want to move from one oppressor to the next.
Don Lemon asks him who the next oppressor would be, CNN edits crews response out.
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I wonder what he was going to say.
h/t lsdhead


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--How Jeffrey Epstein funded sex trafficking ring with Wall Street help

Saagar Enjeti discusses the reveal about Deutsche Bank ’ s connection with Jeffrey Epstein .

Saagar Enjeti discusses the reveal about Deutsche Bank’s connection with Jeffrey Epstein.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Dividend payments plunge by $42.5 billion in worst quarter for income investors since financial cris

Dividend payments plunge by $42.5 billion in worst quarter for income investors since financial crisis

Dividends on net fell $ 42.5 billion in the second quarter from a year earlier .
That was the largest @ @ @ @ @ of 2009 during the Great Recession , according to S & P Dow Jones Indices @ @ @ @ @ P 500 , dividends totaled $ 119 billion , a sharp drop from the record @ @ @ @ @ quarter .

www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/dividend-payments-plunge-by-42point5-billion-in-worst-quarter-since-financial-crisis.html
Dividends on net fell $42.5 billion in the second quarter from a year earlier.
That was the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009 during the Great Recession, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
For the S&P 500, dividends totaled $119 billion, a sharp drop from the record $127 billion in first quarter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tax returns, financial records to come Thursday

The Supreme Court will announce Thursday whether congressional committees and a New York prosecutor are entitled to see President Trump @ @ @ @ @ , after the president has waged an intense legal battle to keep the material secret @ @ @ @ @ that opinions in all remaining cases would be issued Thursday .
The court in May @ @ @ @ @ the world listening in — on three cases with potential landmark constitutional consequences .
All @ @ @ @ @ legal fight to shield years of income tax returns from public view and keep his @ @ @ @ @ hands of Democratic-led House committees and Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr .

The Supreme Court will announce Thursday whether congressional committees and a New York prosecutor are entitled to see President Trump’s personal financial records, after the president has waged an intense legal battle to keep the material secret.
The court said Wednesday that opinions in all remaining cases would be issued Thursday. The court in May held teleconferenced hearings — with the world listening in — on three cases with potential landmark constitutional consequences.
All concern Trump’s long-running legal fight to shield years of income tax returns from public view and keep his private financial records from the hands of Democratic-led House committees and Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.
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www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/trump-tax-returns-supreme-court/2020/07/08/d5e9ac30-c11f-11ea-b4f6-cb39cd8940fb_story.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Harvard, MIT sue to block Trump administration from stripping student visas amid pandemic

Northeastern University announced Wednesday afternoon that it would join Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in filing a federal lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement over new rules barring international students from living in the country while taking online courses .
The suit , filed in U.S. District Court in Boston , asks for a temporary restraining order to keep Homeland Security and ICE from enforcing the federal guidelines which state that removal proceedings could be initiated for international students who refuse to transfer to a school offering in-person classes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend , ICE threw Harvard and MIT— indeed , virtually all of higher education in the United States—into chaos , ” the suit alleges , adding that ICE ’ s action “ leaves hundreds of thousands of international students with no educational options within the United States ” weeks before the start of the fall semester .
“ Moreover , for many students , returning to their home countries to participate in online instruction is impossible , impracticable , prohibitively expensive , and/or dangerous.
” The Chinese students probably provide much of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their student IQ .
I.e.
, they would be a lot poorer and dumber without them .

Northeastern University announced Wednesday afternoon that it would join Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in filing a federal lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement over new rules barring international students from living in the country while taking online courses.
The suit, filed in U.S. District Court in Boston, asks for a temporary restraining order to keep Homeland Security and ICE from enforcing the federal guidelines which state that removal proceedings could be initiated for international students who refuse to transfer to a school offering in-person classes.
“Immediately after the Fourth of July weekend, ICE threw Harvard and MIT— indeed, virtually all of higher education in the United States—into chaos,” the suit alleges, adding that ICE’s action “leaves hundreds of thousands of international students with no educational options within the United States” weeks before the start of the fall semester. “Moreover, for many students, returning to their home countries to participate in online instruction is impossible, impracticable, prohibitively expensive, and/or dangerous.”
www.nbcboston.com/news/local/harvard-mit-sue-feds-over-rules-barring-international-students-report/2155756/
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They’re desperate.
The Chinese students probably provide much of their revenue from tuition and the majority of their student IQ.
I.e., they would be a lot poorer and dumber without them.
h/t Cartel


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--An Average Day In The Life Of A Refugee, Post-Economic Collapse & During A Pandemic

by J.G .
Martinez via The Organic Prepper For those of you wondering how my life is , I have written this article to give you an idea of what it ’ s like living as a refugee .
Here is how we have been living these last few months , waiting for the day we can come back to Venezuela .
Street fruit vendors begin working very early .
By 7 AM , they are screaming all over the place with their speakers , waking up everybody .
Including me .
After that , I have no choice but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fold my microfiber blanket , and get into my wardrobe .
My son usually takes over my space on the bed while it is still warm .
He lays there until he decides to wake up and have his breakfast .
I lift his mattress and support it against the wall with a plastic garden chair .
Our space is small , but we manage to keep it clean and organized .
After having a glass of water , I perform 20 push-ups to get the blood circulating .
Doing this warms up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a quick face wash , and then go upstairs to the unfinished part of the building to prepare coffee in my hobo stove .
It ’ s a pressurized coffee maker I brought with me .
It has been with me for over 10 years now , and it ’ s perfect .
Not too much needed when your kid is safe and well-fed .
Next up : chores , news reviews , and social media Splitting the firewood with a borrowed kitchen hatchet and a hammer is a chore I do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to leave the firewood on the open terrace .
Although Lima is an arid desert , cold and moisture are high at night , and the firewood will become moist if it is left out .
I take a small cardboard box and put the split firewood in it and get it into our bedroom .
If someone had told me that in a couple of years , I would be cooking with fire in the middle of a deadly pandemic , I would have laughed in his or her face .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ too much noise .
In this cold , damp air sounds seem to travel much further , and I know hammering can be annoying to the landlord ’ s family .
I try to split as much as I can once I get to it , and fast .
When I have finished going over in my mind what I have to accomplish during the day , I quickly review news on a few websites about the evolution of the situation in Venezuela .
Mostly reputed journalists with awards report the news .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and misinformation .
I try to write one or two paragraphs of my book and make some publicity in the groups on the different platforms for my online English classes .
Lots of professionals need to learn English , at least reading it , and I have found some students .
However , the SARS/Cov2 crisis has hit everyone hard , and we professionals are no exception .
Mining companies have minimal operations , meaning just a few technicians and engineers have been left working , and the rest of them sent home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the partners of a student died reportedly with SARS/Cov2 .
He was only 37 and healthy .
As I warm up and prepare myself for the remainder of my day , I post a few random comments , check my twitter and Facebook accounts , and post links to my articles .
I try to not read anything about the spreading of SARSCov2 .
I have enough information already without ever having asked for it .
Wash time : Myself and the laundry Since we have no hot running water , if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shower .
If it ’ s too cold , I will heat water on the stove to wash with .
I can ’ t get an electric head shower because I would have to pay for the electricity bill .
So I just boil water over a fire and pour it in a small tub of cold water to warm it up enough to bathe .
I hate when my underwear accumulates , and I have to wash them by hand for hours .
After I bathe in the warm water , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ piece at a time is a much better deal .
Clotheslines on the roof get full from the other tenants of the building .
I barely have space left to hang a T-shirt , some socks , and a pair of pants .
Best way to start the day : Breakfast and blessings .
These days with my kiddo here living with me , I usually prepare some meal in the hobo stove and a couple cans of fruit .
He enjoys a lot ripping apart some smaller pieces of wood to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been slowly teaching him how to make a fire in the stove .
His mama taught him to use the gas stove , as he likes to cook , but making a wood fire , we all know , is different .
After some fruit and cereal , I brush my teeth , make my second cup of coffee , and start researching for my articles .
Kiddo wakes up , and I offer him a blessing .
Venezuelans offer children , regardless of age , blessings upon waking , before bed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then I prepare his breakfast , usually fruit , cereal , or a couple of sandwiches with ham and cheese .
I make him arepas also .
Cooked over the open fire , these are quite tasty , and he loves them .
My boy loves my oatmeal because I make it thick like concrete , with a little cinnamon powder .
After breakfast , kiddo washes his dish and glass .
He is becoming a coffee drinker and has started to ask for coffee with milk before he starts studying .
Nowadays @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few videos of our choice .
He watches videos made by the Peruvian government .
( The Venezuelan versions are pathetic . )
He also watches independently produced videos on the history of Venezuela .
Math , science , robotics , Arduino programming for kids , veterinary , chemistry , and some fundamental physics principles are other topics he chooses .
The best part is , my kiddo truly enjoys learning and is quite smart .
He is talented with tools , building , and assembling stuff , and he is learning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes to sit next to me while I am teaching .
All in a day ’ s work : Writing , reading , projects , and planning .
I write for two blogs : backdoorsurvival.com and theorganicprepper.com and also for my Patreon site .
I try to get in a little reading about poultry/rabbits/fishing and the current weather conditions , and I have projects I tend to daily .
Here are just a few : • Basic survival tool kit ( hopefully I can make this available when we recover our freedom ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calculating how much cubic feet of methane needed to feed a forge , and the generator .
( The forge is needed for tempering ) • Designing , making , and building rototiller spikes , knives to sell , and more .
( Some of you may not know this , I am a metallurgist and know how to get the best of steel .
And I suspect some nearby farmers are going to be very satisfied with my cutting tools . )
Mid-day lunch and study review with my boy While my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ butcher hatchet and “ helps ” me , I prepare him some noodles for lunch , or maybe a couple of chicken legs with rosemary and potatoes like his mama used to make .
( He says he likes my cooking better . )
I have never been good at cooking rice , and doing it over a wood stove is a challenge .
I have tried to cook it a couple of times , the results were not good .
More practice is needed , I suppose .
And , now I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sister-in-law that should be easier .
Something I have been particularly interested in researching these last few months is homeschooling for kids with diversities .
Kiddo watches some of the abundant material after he finishes his daily composition on the topics he just watched .
While I take a brief nap , 15 or 20 minutes , he uses the one computer desk we have to write his composition .
We read it later and discuss it so it can be fully understood by him .
Related : Where do I Start With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the day , we have some tea , like manzanilla or some other herb ( helps us to sleep better and warms us up in winter nights ) , a small sandwich or leftovers from lunch ( in my case ) as supper , or some other light meal and he goes to bed .
I usually remain awake for a while and look for a good SciFi video to watch on YouTube .
This is , for me , the best time of the day .
Before going to sleep , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intelligence .
My boy believes the day will come when we can upload a human conscience to a machine .
As a species , I tell him we are going to need all the hard work of smart kids like himself to overcome all the future challenges and that he must prepare hard and learn tons of stuff to use it later in life .
He says , “ Yes , papa , ” with his soft little voice , and I know I must be doing this right .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ smile .
Jose is an upper middle class professional .
He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor ’ s degree from one of the best national Universities .
He has a small 4 members family , plus two cats and a dog .
An old but in good shape SUV , a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood , in a small but ( formerly ) prosperous city with two middle size malls .
Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beloved Venezuela .
Thanks to your help Jose has gotten his family out of Venezuela .
They are currently setting up a new life in another country .
Follow Jose on YouTube and gain access to his exclusive content on Patreon .
Donations : paypal.me/JoseM151 Editor ’ s Note : The featured image for this post of the pot over an open flame is not from this article , but rather , a representation of some of the daily activities described above .

by J.G. Martinez via The Organic Prepper
For those of you wondering how my life is, I have written this article to give you an idea of what it’s like living as a refugee. Here is how we have been living these last few months, waiting for the day we can come back to Venezuela.
Simple morning ritual: water, push-ups, and coffee
Street fruit vendors begin working very early. By 7 AM, they are screaming all over the place with their speakers, waking up everybody. Including me. After that, I have no choice but to get up off my mattress, fold my microfiber blanket, and get into my wardrobe. My son usually takes over my space on the bed while it is still warm. He lays there until he decides to wake up and have his breakfast. I lift his mattress and support it against the wall with a plastic garden chair. Our space is small, but we manage to keep it clean and organized.
After having a glass of water, I perform 20 push-ups to get the blood circulating. Doing this warms up the body. I brush my teeth, a quick face wash, and then go upstairs to the unfinished part of the building to prepare coffee in my hobo stove. It’s a pressurized coffee maker I brought with me. It has been with me for over 10 years now, and it’s perfect. Not too much needed when your kid is safe and well-fed.
Next up: chores, news reviews, and social media
Splitting the firewood with a borrowed kitchen hatchet and a hammer is a chore I do every day. It’s best not to leave the firewood on the open terrace. Although Lima is an arid desert, cold and moisture are high at night, and the firewood will become moist if it is left out. I take a small cardboard box and put the split firewood in it and get it into our bedroom. If someone had told me that in a couple of years, I would be cooking with fire in the middle of a deadly pandemic, I would have laughed in his or her face. I try to split firewood without making too much noise. In this cold, damp air sounds seem to travel much further, and I know hammering can be annoying to the landlord’s family. I try to split as much as I can once I get to it, and fast.
When I have finished going over in my mind what I have to accomplish during the day, I quickly review news on a few websites about the evolution of the situation in Venezuela. Mostly reputed journalists with awards report the news. There is a bit of biased garbage and misinformation.
I try to write one or two paragraphs of my book and make some publicity in the groups on the different platforms for my online English classes. Lots of professionals need to learn English, at least reading it, and I have found some students. However, the SARS/Cov2 crisis has hit everyone hard, and we professionals are no exception. Mining companies have minimal operations, meaning just a few technicians and engineers have been left working, and the rest of them sent home. Recently I found out one of the partners of a student died reportedly with SARS/Cov2. He was only 37 and healthy.
As I warm up and prepare myself for the remainder of my day, I post a few random comments, check my twitter and Facebook accounts, and post links to my articles. I try to not read anything about the spreading of SARSCov2. I have enough information already without ever having asked for it.
Wash time: Myself and the laundry
Since we have no hot running water, if the weather permits, I take a cold shower. If it’s too cold, I will heat water on the stove to wash with. I can’t get an electric head shower because I would have to pay for the electricity bill. So I just boil water over a fire and pour it in a small tub of cold water to warm it up enough to bathe. I hate when my underwear accumulates, and I have to wash them by hand for hours. After I bathe in the warm water, I wash my underwear in it. One piece at a time is a much better deal. Clotheslines on the roof get full from the other tenants of the building. I barely have space left to hang a T-shirt, some socks, and a pair of pants.
Best way to start the day: Breakfast and blessings.
These days with my kiddo here living with me, I usually prepare some meal in the hobo stove and a couple cans of fruit. He enjoys a lot ripping apart some smaller pieces of wood to be used as fire starters. I have been slowly teaching him how to make a fire in the stove. His mama taught him to use the gas stove, as he likes to cook, but making a wood fire, we all know, is different. After some fruit and cereal, I brush my teeth, make my second cup of coffee, and start researching for my articles.
Kiddo wakes up, and I offer him a blessing. Venezuelans offer children, regardless of age, blessings upon waking, before bed, and when leaving home or arriving. Then I prepare his breakfast, usually fruit, cereal, or a couple of sandwiches with ham and cheese. I make him arepas also. Cooked over the open fire, these are quite tasty, and he loves them. My boy loves my oatmeal because I make it thick like concrete, with a little cinnamon powder.
After breakfast, kiddo washes his dish and glass. He is becoming a coffee drinker and has started to ask for coffee with milk before he starts studying. Nowadays, studying means spending three hours watching a few videos of our choice. He watches videos made by the Peruvian government. (The Venezuelan versions are pathetic.) He also watches independently produced videos on the history of Venezuela. Math, science, robotics, Arduino programming for kids, veterinary, chemistry, and some fundamental physics principles are other topics he chooses.
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The best part is, my kiddo truly enjoys learning and is quite smart. He is talented with tools, building, and assembling stuff, and he is learning English fast, as sometimes he just comes to sit next to me while I am teaching.
All in a day’s work: Writing, reading, projects, and planning.
I write for two blogs: backdoorsurvival.com and theorganicprepper.com and also for my Patreon site. I try to get in a little reading about poultry/rabbits/fishing and the current weather conditions, and I have projects I tend to daily. Here are just a few:
Drone project
Automatic cheese press
Basic survival tool kit (hopefully I can make this available when we recover our freedom)
Aquaponic system planning
Generator: I’m still calculating how much cubic feet of methane needed to feed a forge, and the generator. (The forge is needed for tempering)
Designing, making, and building rototiller spikes, knives to sell, and more. (Some of you may not know this, I am a metallurgist and know how to get the best of steel. And I suspect some nearby farmers are going to be very satisfied with my cutting tools.)
Mid-day lunch and study review with my boy
While my kiddo “splits” firewood with the butcher hatchet and “helps” me, I prepare him some noodles for lunch, or maybe a couple of chicken legs with rosemary and potatoes like his mama used to make. (He says he likes my cooking better.) I have never been good at cooking rice, and doing it over a wood stove is a challenge. I have tried to cook it a couple of times, the results were not good. More practice is needed, I suppose. And, now I have a gas stove lent by my sister-in-law that should be easier.
Something I have been particularly interested in researching these last few months is homeschooling for kids with diversities. Kiddo watches some of the abundant material after he finishes his daily composition on the topics he just watched. While I take a brief nap, 15 or 20 minutes, he uses the one computer desk we have to write his composition. We read it later and discuss it so it can be fully understood by him.
Related: Where do I Start With Homeschooling?
Time for supper, tea, and bed
Usually, at the end of the day, we have some tea, like manzanilla or some other herb (helps us to sleep better and warms us up in winter nights), a small sandwich or leftovers from lunch (in my case) as supper, or some other light meal and he goes to bed. I usually remain awake for a while and look for a good SciFi video to watch on YouTube. This is, for me, the best time of the day.
Before going to sleep, my kiddo talks to me about artificial intelligence. My boy believes the day will come when we can upload a human conscience to a machine. As a species, I tell him we are going to need all the hard work of smart kids like himself to overcome all the future challenges and that he must prepare hard and learn tons of stuff to use it later in life. He says, “Yes, papa,” with his soft little voice, and I know I must be doing this right.
That’s enough to make me sleep with a smile.
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has a small 4 members family, plus two cats and a dog. An old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Thanks to your help Jose has gotten his family out of Venezuela. They are currently setting up a new life in another country. Follow Jose on YouTube and gain access to his exclusive content on Patreon. Donations: paypal.me/JoseM151
*****
Editor’s Note: The featured image for this post of the pot over an open flame is not from this article, but rather, a representation of some of the daily activities described above.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Credit And Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders Continuing our research from Part I , into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 , we ’ ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels .
The Adaptive Dynamic Learning ( ADL ) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these unique price setups .
Then , it attempts to learn from the past DNA markers and apply that learned price behavior to future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it learns from the past and applies that knowledge to the future .
On June 15 , 2020 , we published this article referencing the ADL predictive modeling system and how the US stock markets were , at that time , 12 % to 15 % overvalued based on this analysis .
Continuing this research , our researchers still believe the ES ( S & P500 ) is very likely to fall to levels near $ 2500 before finding support just below that level .
These predicted ADL price levels strongly suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ES are near $ 2500 – not near the overvalued levels closer to $ 3000 .
Additionally , an update NQ ADL Weekly chart suggests the NQ has rallied to levels that appear to be extremely overvalued .
The current ADL prediction levels suggest the NQ ADL valuation levels should be near $ 6600 – not near $ 10,325 as they are now .
This suggests a massive -36 % price disparity between the current overvalued rally level of the NQ and the expected ADL price level based on our advanced predictive modeling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attempted to explain one of the core elements of our research estimates , let ’ s get further into the data that is likely to present a very real opportunity for skilled technical traders .
ECONOMIC CYCLES As you are likely well aware of by now , a series of catastrophic economic events continue to unfold throughout the globe .
Most importantly , the ability to earn revenues for consumers and corporations while dealing with hard fixed costs .
In previous articles , we ’ ve suggested our belief that a unique event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a concern because global central banks can support the market well enough to allow economic activity to resume near fairly normal levels .
We ’ ve suggested that the bigger problem is when an extended economic contraction takes place that is a global or more wide-spread economic event .
This type of economic crisis is much more dangerous because of two factors : _ A .
The continued lack of revenue generation increases the pressure on the individual or corporation to cut costs , employees , or other assets .
Without the ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin to eat up cash reserves very quickly and will quickly begin to identify their longer-term sustainability objectives .
Unless the economy starts to recover quickly , this crisis for the individual or corporation could be a moderately slow and dangerous “ bleed-out ” event leading to bankruptcy .
_B .
The efforts of localized governments and global banking institutions initially attempt to mitigate the risks of such an event .
This is usually done by providing greater capital resources to certain industries , the general banking system , and in other ways/sources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a number of forbearance programs have been initiated to take away certain pressures for homeowners and others .
Still , the economy must continue to operate within normal boundaries and bills must be paid .
With an extended economic collapse , such as we may be experiencing with the COVID-19 virus event , the problems for consumers and corporations grow bigger and more dangerous the longer the economic contraction event continues .
When you really start to understand the cycle of these events and then begin to understand the domino-effect process that may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , skilled technical investors should already be preparing for extended price volatility and unknowns over the next 6+ months or longer .
Allow us to explain , in simple terms , how this cycle plays out… _ Local consumers/workers are laid-off or fired from jobs .
This puts immediate earnings pressure on local families and individuals and it pushes them into a protective mode where they suddenly must decide between essential items ( food , medicine , personal care , transportation , and other essentials ) vs. non-essential items ( movies , dining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and others ) .
Currently , there are more than 35 million unemployed people in the US ( roughly 10 % of the total population .
_ The COVID-19 shutdown within the US has disrupted the earning capabilities of many businesses over the past 3+ months .
As consumers slow down their purchases and businesses close because of government shutdown orders , the problems amplify for many business owners and employees .
If you have ever owned your own business , you understand the risks involved and the ongoing hard costs associated with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governor orders a “ shutdown ” doesn ’ t mean that your hard monthly costs are going away too .
This ongoing problem sets up another crisis event in the making – the Business Owner risk factor .
How long before these individual business owners simply can ’ t sustain their operations any longer and are forced into bankruptcy ?
_ Local governments derive their operating budgets from taxes and revenues generated within their communities .
With the COVID-19 shutdown crippling these revenues , we estimate that Q3 and Q4 2020 will become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many local governments .
They may be able to manage their budgets for a few months within the economic contraction period , but we believe the longer this economic contraction event continues , more and more pressure will be put on local and regional ( city/state ) governments where revenues have likely collapsed 25 % to 45 % + recently .
_ The bigger cycle start to take place .
( A ) With consumers laid-off and/or fired from their jobs , their income levels drop dramatically and their spending decreases dramatically .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to survive with hard costs and payroll in a depressed economic environment , these businesses will either find a way to survive or fail – laying off more people and creating further disruption in earnings/revenues for workers and local governments .
( C ) With local governments slow to react to the economic contraction ( and mostly hiring under contract ) , the decreases in revenue over time may present a very real issue for government agencies and become a real problem 4 to 6+ months into the economic contraction .
_ When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and scope of the economic contraction , they will attempt to balance their books by adapting ( developing new sources of revenue : products , services , taxes , fees ) and/or begin to contract themselves .
Either of these two options is fraught with risk and could potentially increase the risks of a more extended economic contraction event .
Raising taxes or fees on consumers/businesses within a massive economic contraction event will likely push more individuals/businesses into bankruptcy – further decreasing the government revenues .
Developing new products/services and marketing them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the product is not a success , the business takes a huge risk making these aggressive transitional moves – which may lead to increased economic concerns .
As long as the consumer is struggling and not earning sufficiently , the foundation of the economic structure is at risk of collapsing even further .
This cycle is sometimes called the “ death cycle ” in economic terms .
It is a cycle where economic contraction leads to further economic contraction .
The process of breaking this cycle is simple , the entire economic engine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the overextended valuation and “ fluff ” within the system .
Once this has happened , then a new economic foundation will begin to establish where growth and opportunity will resume within local and regional economies .
IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA Now , let ’ s look at some of the data that supports our research .
The World Uncertainty Index has recently skyrocketed above 50 , the highest level over the past 60+ years .
Since the low point , in 1985 , the World Uncertainty Index has continued to rise with higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30+ years .
Currently , this index suggests there is a massive amount of uncertainty throughout the globe related to economic function , central banks , geopolitical issues , and humanitarian issues .
Bay very close attention to the peaks in this index and the dates of these peaks ( 2004 , 2013 , 2020 ) .
The 2004 and 2013 peaks occurred roughly 3 to 4 years after a major stock market bottom setup .
The current index high would suggest a market bottom may have set up in 2016 and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be 12 to 24 months away .
This suggests we may still experience a moderately high degree of uncertainty and a number of unknown global and economic crisis events over the next 12 to 24 months .
The US Federal Reserve has recently begun another massive quantitative easing phase and actively begun to purchase various forms of debt , bonds , and equity within the financial markets .
Paying attention to the rallies in the Fed buying activity and the World Uncertainty Index , you ’ ll see the peaks in the Uncertainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed activities .
Generally , the uncertainty levels rise as the US Fed intervenes and executes QE policies to support the global markets .
This Global Commodity Price Index chart highlights the recent collapse in raw commodity prices and illustrates the incredibly depressed level of commodities related to global economic activities .
Over the past 20 years , the only time when commodity prices were lower was in early 2000~2005 – just after the 9/11 economic contraction .
The current Commodity Price Index level suggests we have entered a new deflationary price cycle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – just before the big downside price contraction started in October 2018 .
Our researchers have continued to highlight that point on multiple charts as the true peak in the US and global markets .
At this point in time , developing a safe and protected strategy to ride out these uncertain times is essential .
We ’ ve been advising our clients to stay safely away from the global stock market trends and we issued a Black Swan warning on February 21 , 2020 , telling all of our clients to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then , we ’ ve advised our clients to move their capital into selected sectors to take advantage of hedging opportunities and targeted trading opportunities over the past 3+ months .
We continue to believe the best way to profit from these market trends is to develop a super conservative investment model where Cash is King and proper hedging is essential .
There are plenty of great trades to select from – assuming we want to take on the additional risks associated with these trades .
We believe the next 3+ months will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely seeing the VIX move above 50~60 again , as Q2and Q3 earnings and expectations continue to shock the investment community .
We do not believe this potential “ V-Shaped ” recovery is sustainable and continues to advise our clients to be prepared downside price reversion .
Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities , bonds , or cash , be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for subscribers .
NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research .
It is provided for educational purposes only .
Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed .

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders
Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels. The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these unique price setups. Then, it attempts to learn from the past DNA markers and apply that learned price behavior to future price DNA markers. In this manner, it learns from the past and applies that knowledge to the future.
ES ADL PREDICTIVE MODELING
On June 15, 2020, we published this article referencing the ADL predictive modeling system and how the US stock markets were, at that time, 12% to 15% overvalued based on this analysis. Continuing this research, our researchers still believe the ES (S&P500) is very likely to fall to levels near $2500 before finding support just below that level. These predicted ADL price levels strongly suggest that the true valuation levels for the ES are near $2500 – not near the overvalued levels closer to $3000.
NQ ADL PREDICTIVE MODELING
Additionally, an update NQ ADL Weekly chart suggests the NQ has rallied to levels that appear to be extremely overvalued. The current ADL prediction levels suggest the NQ ADL valuation levels should be near $6600 – not near $10,325 as they are now. This suggests a massive -36% price disparity between the current overvalued rally level of the NQ and the expected ADL price level based on our advanced predictive modeling system.
Now that we’ve attempted to explain one of the core elements of our research estimates, let’s get further into the data that is likely to present a very real opportunity for skilled technical traders.
ECONOMIC CYCLES
As you are likely well aware of by now, a series of catastrophic economic events continue to unfold throughout the globe. Most importantly, the ability to earn revenues for consumers and corporations while dealing with hard fixed costs. In previous articles, we’ve suggested our belief that a unique event in localized economies is not much of a concern because global central banks can support the market well enough to allow economic activity to resume near fairly normal levels. We’ve suggested that the bigger problem is when an extended economic contraction takes place that is a global or more wide-spread economic event. This type of economic crisis is much more dangerous because of two factors:
_ A. The continued lack of revenue generation increases the pressure on the individual or corporation to cut costs, employees, or other assets. Without the ability to earn, these individuals or corporations begin to eat up cash reserves very quickly and will quickly begin to identify their longer-term sustainability objectives. Unless the economy starts to recover quickly, this crisis for the individual or corporation could be a moderately slow and dangerous “bleed-out” event leading to bankruptcy.
_B. The efforts of localized governments and global banking institutions initially attempt to mitigate the risks of such an event. This is usually done by providing greater capital resources to certain industries, the general banking system, and in other ways/sources. Currently, within the US, a number of forbearance programs have been initiated to take away certain pressures for homeowners and others. Still, the economy must continue to operate within normal boundaries and bills must be paid. With an extended economic collapse, such as we may be experiencing with the COVID-19 virus event, the problems for consumers and corporations grow bigger and more dangerous the longer the economic contraction event continues.
When you really start to understand the cycle of these events and then begin to understand the domino-effect process that may already be playing out in some form, skilled technical investors should already be preparing for extended price volatility and unknowns over the next 6+ months or longer. Allow us to explain, in simple terms, how this cycle plays out…
_ Local consumers/workers are laid-off or fired from jobs. This puts immediate earnings pressure on local families and individuals and it pushes them into a protective mode where they suddenly must decide between essential items (food, medicine, personal care, transportation, and other essentials) vs. non-essential items (movies, dining out, travel, discretionary purchases, and others). Currently, there are more than 35 million unemployed people in the US (roughly 10% of the total population.
_ The COVID-19 shutdown within the US has disrupted the earning capabilities of many businesses over the past 3+ months. As consumers slow down their purchases and businesses close because of government shutdown orders, the problems amplify for many business owners and employees. If you have ever owned your own business, you understand the risks involved and the ongoing hard costs associated with owning a business. Just because the governor orders a “shutdown” doesn’t mean that your hard monthly costs are going away too. This ongoing problem sets up another crisis event in the making – the Business Owner risk factor. How long before these individual business owners simply can’t sustain their operations any longer and are forced into bankruptcy?
_ Local governments derive their operating budgets from taxes and revenues generated within their communities. With the COVID-19 shutdown crippling these revenues, we estimate that Q3 and Q4 2020 will become a point of “bleed-out” for many local governments. They may be able to manage their budgets for a few months within the economic contraction period, but we believe the longer this economic contraction event continues, more and more pressure will be put on local and regional (city/state) governments where revenues have likely collapsed 25% to 45%+ recently.
_ The bigger cycle start to take place. (A) With consumers laid-off and/or fired from their jobs, their income levels drop dramatically and their spending decreases dramatically. (B) With business owners struggling to survive with hard costs and payroll in a depressed economic environment, these businesses will either find a way to survive or fail – laying off more people and creating further disruption in earnings/revenues for workers and local governments. (C) With local governments slow to react to the economic contraction (and mostly hiring under contract), the decreases in revenue over time may present a very real issue for government agencies and become a real problem 4 to 6+ months into the economic contraction.
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_ When businesses and governments suddenly realize the scale and scope of the economic contraction, they will attempt to balance their books by adapting (developing new sources of revenue: products, services, taxes, fees) and/or begin to contract themselves. Either of these two options is fraught with risk and could potentially increase the risks of a more extended economic contraction event. Raising taxes or fees on consumers/businesses within a massive economic contraction event will likely push more individuals/businesses into bankruptcy – further decreasing the government revenues. Developing new products/services and marketing them to consumers requires capital and resources. If the product is not a success, the business takes a huge risk making these aggressive transitional moves – which may lead to increased economic concerns. As long as the consumer is struggling and not earning sufficiently, the foundation of the economic structure is at risk of collapsing even further.
This cycle is sometimes called the “death cycle” in economic terms. It is a cycle where economic contraction leads to further economic contraction. The process of breaking this cycle is simple, the entire economic engine must “unwind” sufficiently to remove/reduce the overextended valuation and “fluff” within the system. Once this has happened, then a new economic foundation will begin to establish where growth and opportunity will resume within local and regional economies.
IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA
Now, let’s look at some of the data that supports our research.
The World Uncertainty Index has recently skyrocketed above 50, the highest level over the past 60+ years. Since the low point, in 1985, the World Uncertainty Index has continued to rise with higher peaks and higher troughs over the past 30+ years. Currently, this index suggests there is a massive amount of uncertainty throughout the globe related to economic function, central banks, geopolitical issues, and humanitarian issues.
Bay very close attention to the peaks in this index and the dates of these peaks (2004, 2013, 2020). The 2004 and 2013 peaks occurred roughly 3 to 4 years after a major stock market bottom setup. The current index high would suggest a market bottom may have set up in 2016 and a peak in this Uncertainty index may still be 12 to 24 months away. This suggests we may still experience a moderately high degree of uncertainty and a number of unknown global and economic crisis events over the next 12 to 24 months.
The US Federal Reserve has recently begun another massive quantitative easing phase and actively begun to purchase various forms of debt, bonds, and equity within the financial markets. Paying attention to the rallies in the Fed buying activity and the World Uncertainty Index, you’ll see the peaks in the Uncertainty index align with the midpoints of the Fed activities. Generally, the uncertainty levels rise as the US Fed intervenes and executes QE policies to support the global markets.
This Global Commodity Price Index chart highlights the recent collapse in raw commodity prices and illustrates the incredibly depressed level of commodities related to global economic activities. Over the past 20 years, the only time when commodity prices were lower was in early 2000~2005 – just after the 9/11 economic contraction. The current Commodity Price Index level suggests we have entered a new deflationary price cycle with the peak setup near August/September 2018 – just before the big downside price contraction started in October 2018. Our researchers have continued to highlight that point on multiple charts as the true peak in the US and global markets.
At this point in time, developing a safe and protected strategy to ride out these uncertain times is essential. We’ve been advising our clients to stay safely away from the global stock market trends and we issued a Black Swan warning on February 21, 2020, telling all of our clients to “get into cash immediately”. Since then, we’ve advised our clients to move their capital into selected sectors to take advantage of hedging opportunities and targeted trading opportunities over the past 3+ months.
We continue to believe the best way to profit from these market trends is to develop a super conservative investment model where Cash is King and proper hedging is essential. There are plenty of great trades to select from – assuming we want to take on the additional risks associated with these trades.
We believe the next 3+ months will result in a massive volatility spike, likely seeing the VIX move above 50~60 again, as Q2and Q3 earnings and expectations continue to shock the investment community. We do not believe this potential “V-Shaped” recovery is sustainable and continues to advise our clients to be prepared downside price reversion.
Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--World’s Biggest Oil Importer Is Running Out Of Storage

When the bottom fell out of international crude oil markets earlier this year , global oil storage was at a premium .
In the United States , finding sufficient crude oil storage became such a challenge that the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark plummeted below zero on April 20 , ending the day at - $ 37.63 per barrel , meaning that you would essentially be paid $ 40 to take a barrel of oil off of someone ’ s hands .
China , however , soon busied itself stocking up on cheap oil , to the extent that Beijing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil market ’ s recovery by helping to buy off a significant portion of the world ’ s severe oil glut .
This is not to say that China ’ s government was alone in taking advantage of historically low oil prices or buying up oil in an attempt to salvage their own struggling energy sector .
Back in March , the United States government pledged to support domestic oil producers by buying 30 million barrels of oil for the nation ’ s Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
“ But analysts said that China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have done in response to cheap prices , ” writes CNN .
Matt Smith , director of commodity strategy at ClipperData , told CNN ’ s reporters that “ China is the only country that has been buying like crazy .
They went out and bought the dip.
” In fact , China went out and snapped up cheap crude at such a breakneck place that they now have their own critical oil storage issue .
International news has been reporting for weeks on China ’ s jam-packed waterways filling up with crude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that “ China bought so much foreign oil at dirt-cheap prices this spring that a massive traffic jam of tankers has formed at sea waiting to offload crude ” as the country ’ s purchases begin to arrive .
“ China ’ s so-called floating storage — defined as barrels of oil on vessels waiting for seven days or longer — has nearly quadrupled since the end of May , according to ClipperData .
Not only is that the most on record going back to early 2015 , it ’ s up seven-fold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter of 2020.
” The vast majority of the oil arriving to China in recent weeks was purchased in April and May , when low prices spurred a shopping spree .
“ The hoarding of oil at sea is a reflection of China ’ s bargain-hunting during a time of extreme stress in the energy market , ” writes CNN .
According to the report , the oil tanker issue crowding China ’ s seas is not , however , because mainland storage is already at capacity , but simply because they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
ClipperData ’ s Smith said that onshore storage could still take on a lot more crude , and that the current issue is “ simply related to terminal congestion .
They ’ ve got so much coming in that they can ’ t bring it onshore quickly enough.
” This week , however , at least one Chinese news outlet is telling a different story .
While China ’ s onshore storage may not be full , they say , it ’ s getting dangerously close .
Just this week , Beijing-based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is almost out of space to hold the oil that domestic traders bought at bargain-basement prices earlier this year when the Covid-19 pandemic crushed global crude demand.
” Caixin ’ s reporting is based on numbers provided by Oilchem China , which show that , as of Wednesday , Chinese crude oil storage was at 69 percent capacity “ with the 33.4 million tons it had stockpiled , up by 24 % from the previous year.
” This is dangerously close to overflow .
“ That ’ s only 1 percentage point away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ view as the country ’ s capacity limit , ” reports Caixin .
And this stockpile will likely continue to grow , surpassing even May ’ s massive intake .
“ The situation , which has also been exacerbated by low turnover , is most prominent in East China ’ s Shandong province , one of the country ’ s oil refining hubs .
Oil tankers have to wait 15 to 20 days there before they are able to offload their cargos , ” says Caixin .
The amount of oil held in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country ’ s demand for fuel continues its slow march to recovery , but if not , this could spell big trouble for China ’ s storage sector .

By Haley Zaremba
When the bottom fell out of international crude oil markets earlier this year, global oil storage was at a premium. In the United States, finding sufficient crude oil storage became such a challenge that the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark plummeted below zero on April 20, ending the day at -$37.63 per barrel, meaning that you would essentially be paid $40 to take a barrel of oil off of someone’s hands. China, however, soon busied itself stocking up on cheap oil, to the extent that Beijing played a key role in the global oil market’s recovery by helping to buy off a significant portion of the world’s severe oil glut. This is not to say that China’s government was alone in taking advantage of historically low oil prices or buying up oil in an attempt to salvage their own struggling energy sector. Back in March, the United States government pledged to support domestic oil producers by buying 30 million barrels of oil for the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “But analysts said that China’s stockpiling dwarfs what other nations have done in response to cheap prices,” writes CNN. Matt Smith, director of commodity strategy at ClipperData, told CNN’s reporters that “China is the only country that has been buying like crazy. They went out and bought the dip.”
In fact, China went out and snapped up cheap crude at such a breakneck place that they now have their own critical oil storage issue. International news has been reporting for weeks on China’s jam-packed waterways filling up with crude tankers. On July 1 CNN reported that “China bought so much foreign oil at dirt-cheap prices this spring that a massive traffic jam of tankers has formed at sea waiting to offload crude” as the country’s purchases begin to arrive. “China’s so-called floating storage — defined as barrels of oil on vessels waiting for seven days or longer — has nearly quadrupled since the end of May, according to ClipperData. Not only is that the most on record going back to early 2015, it’s up seven-fold from the monthly average during the first quarter of 2020.”
The vast majority of the oil arriving to China in recent weeks was purchased in April and May, when low prices spurred a shopping spree. “The hoarding of oil at sea is a reflection of China’s bargain-hunting during a time of extreme stress in the energy market,” writes CNN. According to the report, the oil tanker issue crowding China’s seas is not, however, because mainland storage is already at capacity, but simply because they can’t get it there fast enough. ClipperData’s Smith said that onshore storage could still take on a lot more crude, and that the current issue is “simply related to terminal congestion. They’ve got so much coming in that they can’t bring it onshore quickly enough.”
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This week, however, at least one Chinese news outlet is telling a different story. While China’s onshore storage may not be full, they say, it’s getting dangerously close. Just this week, Beijing-based media group Caixin reported that “China is almost out of space to hold the oil that domestic traders bought at bargain-basement prices earlier this year when the Covid-19 pandemic crushed global crude demand.”
Caixin’s reporting is based on numbers provided by Oilchem China, which show that, as of Wednesday, Chinese crude oil storage was at 69 percent capacity “with the 33.4 million tons it had stockpiled, up by 24% from the previous year.” This is dangerously close to overflow. “That’s only 1 percentage point away from the 70% threshold that experts view as the country’s capacity limit,” reports Caixin.
And this stockpile will likely continue to grow, surpassing even May’s massive intake. “The situation, which has also been exacerbated by low turnover, is most prominent in East China’s Shandong province, one of the country’s oil refining hubs. Oil tankers have to wait 15 to 20 days there before they are able to offload their cargos,” says Caixin. The amount of oil held in storage may peak later this month as the country’s demand for fuel continues its slow march to recovery, but if not, this could spell big trouble for China’s storage sector.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Huge Debt Payments Come At Worst Time Possible For Canadian Drillers

The collapse in oil prices has significantly deteriorated Canada ’ s oil companies ’ finances and has made repaying their debt more challenging .
Over the past decade , Canadian firms have borrowed money to survive the previous oil crisis of 2015-2016 and boost production post-crisis .
But now the second price collapse in less than five years is leaving Canada ’ s oil patch , especially the smaller players , extremely vulnerable as debt maturities approach .
This year , the oil crash coincides with the highest-ever annual debt maturities in the Canadian energy sector , according to Refinitiv @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , oil and gas firms have to repay US $ 3.7 billion ( C $ 5 billion ) in debt maturities , up by 40 percent compared to last year .
The debt pressure adds to the Canadian energy sector ’ s new predicament with low oil prices , low cash flows , and low overall demand for crude oil due to the coronavirus pandemic .
Some companies are set to default on debts , while others are looking at restructuring options and refinancing .
Banks are not generally too keen to own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the ultimate judge of who can refinance , who can stay afloat , or who can go belly up in this crisis , legal and industry professionals told Reuters .
Some of Canada ’ s oil and gas firms had not overcome the previous crisis when this one hit .
According to Bank of Canada ’ s recent Financial System Review—2020 , the COVID-19 crisis led to widespread financial distress in all sectors , but “ Canada is also grappling with the plunge in global oil prices , which hit while many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovering from the 2014–16 oil price shock.
” The energy sector has the most refinancing needs over the next six months , at US $ 4.43 billion ( C $ 6 billion ) , and faces the most potential downgrades , according to Bank of Canada .
As credit downgrades could raise funding costs , energy companies are likely to face further pressure in obtaining refinancing .
Low oil prices could be a major hurdle to energy firms obtaining refinancing of their debt , the bank said , noting that energy-related bonds could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Energy loans have surged as Canadian banks have increased their loans to the industry by 59 percent over the last five years .
After the pandemic struck , Canada ’ s federal government launched programs to support businesses , including in the oil and gas industry , with relief financing to help them overcome the oil price crash and COVID-19 .
Canada ’ s oil firms , however , were still struggling last month to understand what it takes to qualify for a federal government program .
Meanwhile , industry representatives said they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access financing under those programs .
The large companies are refinancing short-term debt with new debt issues , but many of the small ones don ’ t have this option and are looking at alternative ways to recapitalize and restructure .
One of the largest firms , Canadian Natural Resources , issued a few weeks ago US $ 1.1 billion in five- and ten-year notes , planning to use the proceeds to refinance its outstanding short-term debt .
Among smaller firms , Bonavista Energy recapitalized last month swapping debt with equity and going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May proceedings under the Companies ’ Creditors Arrangement Act ( CCAA ) aimed at restructuring .
Cequence Energy is also under the CCAA proceedings “ to pursue potential strategic options and alternatives to maximize the value for its stakeholders.
” A growing number of smaller Canadian oil and gas firms are opting for the CCAA process to avoid bankruptcy , analysts told Kyle Bakx of CBC News last week .
Canada ’ s energy firms are pressured not only by the low oil prices and the turmoil in the global oil industry , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some companies with weakened finances and potential credit downgrades may not be able to secure refinancing , analysts say .
“ There ’ s a lot of extend , amend and pretend with respect to finance documentation , ” Alan Ross , regional managing partner with law firm Borden Ladner Gervais , told Reuters .
“ But at some point the music will stop .
”

By Tsvetana Paraskova
The collapse in oil prices has significantly deteriorated Canada’s oil companies’ finances and has made repaying their debt more challenging. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have borrowed money to survive the previous oil crisis of 2015-2016 and boost production post-crisis. But now the second price collapse in less than five years is leaving Canada’s oil patch, especially the smaller players, extremely vulnerable as debt maturities approach.
This year, the oil crash coincides with the highest-ever annual debt maturities in the Canadian energy sector, according to Refinitiv data cited by Reuters. In 2020, oil and gas firms have to repay US$3.7 billion (C$5 billion) in debt maturities, up by 40 percent compared to last year.
The debt pressure adds to the Canadian energy sector’s new predicament with low oil prices, low cash flows, and low overall demand for crude oil due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Some companies are set to default on debts, while others are looking at restructuring options and refinancing. Banks are not generally too keen to own energy assets. But the banks may be the ultimate judge of who can refinance, who can stay afloat, or who can go belly up in this crisis, legal and industry professionals told Reuters.
Some of Canada’s oil and gas firms had not overcome the previous crisis when this one hit.
According to Bank of Canada’s recent Financial System Review—2020, the COVID-19 crisis led to widespread financial distress in all sectors, but “Canada is also grappling with the plunge in global oil prices, which hit while many businesses in the energy sector were still recovering from the 2014–16 oil price shock.”
The energy sector has the most refinancing needs over the next six months, at US$4.43 billion (C$6 billion), and faces the most potential downgrades, according to Bank of Canada.
As credit downgrades could raise funding costs, energy companies are likely to face further pressure in obtaining refinancing.
Low oil prices could be a major hurdle to energy firms obtaining refinancing of their debt, the bank said, noting that energy-related bonds could dominate the high-yield debt in Canada.
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Energy loans have surged as Canadian banks have increased their loans to the industry by 59 percent over the last five years.
After the pandemic struck, Canada’s federal government launched programs to support businesses, including in the oil and gas industry, with relief financing to help them overcome the oil price crash and COVID-19.
Canada’s oil firms, however, were still struggling last month to understand what it takes to qualify for a federal government program. Meanwhile, industry representatives said they were unaware of any firm that could access financing under those programs.
The large companies are refinancing short-term debt with new debt issues, but many of the small ones don’t have this option and are looking at alternative ways to recapitalize and restructure.
One of the largest firms, Canadian Natural Resources, issued a few weeks ago US$1.1 billion in five- and ten-year notes, planning to use the proceeds to refinance its outstanding short-term debt.
Among smaller firms, Bonavista Energy recapitalized last month swapping debt with equity and going private. Delphi Energy Corp launched in May proceedings under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) aimed at restructuring. Cequence Energy is also under the CCAA proceedings “to pursue potential strategic options and alternatives to maximize the value for its stakeholders.”
A growing number of smaller Canadian oil and gas firms are opting for the CCAA process to avoid bankruptcy, analysts told Kyle Bakx of CBC News last week.
Canada’s energy firms are pressured not only by the low oil prices and the turmoil in the global oil industry, but also by the approaching debt maturities. Some companies with weakened finances and potential credit downgrades may not be able to secure refinancing, analysts say.
“There’s a lot of extend, amend and pretend with respect to finance documentation,” Alan Ross, regional managing partner with law firm Borden Ladner Gervais, told Reuters. “But at some point the music will stop.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Marquette Claims To Be A Nonpartisan Educational Entity For Tax Purposes?

Pfefferle ’ s post has been watched nearly 600,000 times and has since caught the attention of the Marquette community , some of whom began harassing Pfefferle .
Others threatened her life .
“ I hope you get shot , ” one commenter told Pfefferle .
“ I ’ d pray for you but you ’ re not worth it , ” another user added .
“ I was extremely disappointed by the incendiary comments , ” Pfefferle told The College Fix in an interview .
“ The response from my peers has been repulsive.
” Pfefferle explained that following @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brian Troyer , dean of undergraduate admissions at Marquette , who she said told her her acceptance to the school was far from certain .
“ [ He ] had the heart to tell me I wasn ’ t a student , ” Pfefferle said .
“ This means that my classification is still in limbo and is currently being decided by the administration .
I have been accepted , I paid for my housing , I have my roommates , I even have a complete class schedule .
If that doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does ?
” Some Marquette administrators also asked Pfefferle a series of questions meant to judge her morals , she said .

Marquette University threatened to rescind student’s admission over pro-Trump TikTok video.
Pfefferle’s post has been watched nearly 600,000 times and has since caught the attention of the Marquette community, some of whom began harassing Pfefferle. Others threatened her life.
“I hope you get shot,” one commenter told Pfefferle. “I’d pray for you but you’re not worth it,” another user added.
“I was extremely disappointed by the incendiary comments,” Pfefferle told The College Fix in an interview. “The response from my peers has been repulsive.”
Pfefferle explained that following the TikTok, she was contacted by Brian Troyer, dean of undergraduate admissions at Marquette, who she said told her her acceptance to the school was far from certain.
“[He] had the heart to tell me I wasn’t a student,” Pfefferle said. “This means that my classification is still in limbo and is currently being decided by the administration. I have been accepted, I paid for my housing, I have my roommates, I even have a complete class schedule. If that doesn’t make me a student, what does?”
Some Marquette administrators also asked Pfefferle a series of questions meant to judge her morals, she said.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Fears coronavirus will spark brain damage ‘epidemic’ as even mild cases cause inflammation

PEOPLE who have contracted the coronavirus could also suffer brain complications , experts have revealed .
Conditions such as brain @ @ @ @ @ damage and delirium have all been named as complications that could be caused by Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ London ’ s Institute of Neurology have now warned that a brain damage “ epidmic @ @ @ @ @ way after they found that some patients with the coronavirus did not experience severe respiratory @ @ @ @ @ that neurological disorders were the first symptom that some Covid patients presented with .
They @ @ @ @ @ be aware of neurological effects that could be present when patients have Covid-19 as even @ @ @ @ @ can cause inflammation .
During the study the team identified a rare and fatal inflammatory @ @ @ @ @ disseminated encephalomyelitis ) which they found had increased during the pandemic .

PEOPLE who have contracted the coronavirus could also suffer brain complications, experts have revealed.
Conditions such as brain inflammation, strokes, nerve damage and delirium have all been named as complications that could be caused by Covid-19.
Experts from University College London’s Institute of Neurology have now warned that a brain damage “epidmic” could be on the way after they found that some patients with the coronavirus did not experience severe respiratory issues.
They also said that neurological disorders were the first symptom that some Covid patients presented with.
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They warned that doctors needed to be aware of neurological effects that could be present when patients have Covid-19 as even mild cases of the virus can cause inflammation.
During the study the team identified a rare and fatal inflammatory condition called ADEM (acute disseminated encephalomyelitis) which they found had increased during the pandemic.
www.thesun.co.uk/news/12061825/coronavirus-brain-damage-epidemic-mild-cases-inflammation/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--Pharma execs used strip clubs, broke FDA laws to boost opioid sales

A former sales VP for a pharmaceutical company was sentenced to prison tells 60 Minutes he bribed doctors to prescribe @ @ @ @ @ reports .

A former sales VP for a pharmaceutical company was sentenced to prison tells 60 Minutes he bribed doctors to prescribe fentanyl drugs. Bill Whitaker reports.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-08--The World is Really This Dumb Now. (Video.)

I ’ m not allowed to say what country this is from in this forum .
I have no more @ @

I’m not allowed to say what country this is from in this forum.
Seems fitting though:
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I have no more words.
AC