investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Should Worry About Government Debt? Probably.

Should we worry about Government debt ?
That was the question recently posed by Ben Carlson who laid out several arguments as to why spiraling Government debt may not matter .
To wit : “ Is this debt so unsustainable it ’ s going to wreck future generations and leave them holding the bag ?
Are we really screwing the grandkids ?
Although absolute debt heading into this crisis was high , you could argue we ’ ve never been in a better position to add debt to the country ’ s balance sheet .
Generationally low interest rates and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to add debt during this type of crisis.
” On the surface it certainly seems to be a reasonable argument .
However , while everyone is in a hurry to rationalize the need to take on trillions in debt , no one is discussing either the consequences of such actions , or more importantly how , to reverse the process .
Ben ’ s view on debt is not unique .
The WSJ maintains a similar view .
“ This doesn ’ t mean all that added debt is necessary or being put @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does mean it ’ s not doing much harm .
‘ Interest rates have been trending down for 30 years , ’ said Doug Elmendorf , a former director of the Congressional Budget Office who is now dean of the Harvard Kennedy School .
‘ That doesn ’ t just make it manageable to have more debt .
It ’ s a signal that the economic costs of that debt , in terms of crowding out private borrowers , is particularly low.
’ ” I would readily agree with both views had the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As I warned repeatedly in 2019 : “ With the economy , and the financial markets , sporting the longest-duration in history , simple logic should suggest time is running out .
Politicians , over the last decade , failed to use $ 34 trillion in monetary injections , near-zero interest rates , and surging asset prices to refinance the welfare system , balance the budget , and build surpluses for the next downturn .
Instead , they only made the deficits worse , and the U.S. economy will enter the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , $ 24 Trillion in debt , and a $ 6 Trillion pension gap , which will devastate many in their retirement years.
” Over the next few quarters , the U.S. will push a $ 4 trillion deficit as Government debt surges toward $ 27 trillion .
• 2007 , the Senator Barack Obama chastised President George Bush for adding $ 4.5 trillion to the national debt during is 8-year term .
• 2016 , Donald Trump railed on Barack Obama for adding $ 9 trillion to the debt load during his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the media is now making excuses for adding $ 9 trillion in debt in just 4-years .
While it is true that generationally low interest rates seems to make running higher debt levels relatively “ risk-free , ” this is only because the right question isn ’ t being asked .
Why Are Interest Rates So Low ?
Rates are a function of three primary factors : economic growth , wage growth , and inflation .
The relationship can be seen in the chart below .
The composite economic indicator is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that interest rates are a reflection of economic growth , we can view the impact of debt on the growth of the economy .
Not surprisingly , prior to 1980 , economic growth rates rose as production led to rising incomes and demand .
Since debt , and debt to income ratios , were relatively non-existent , savings were reinvested back into economy .
However , beginning in 1980 , the view by Government that debt had no consequences , led to 40-years of deflationary pressures , slower economic growth , and ultimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S .
Problem Global economies are currently holding nearly $ 78 trillion in debt , with nearly 20 % of that debt sporting negative interest rates .
If the theory “ debt has no consequences ” and “ low interest rates are beneficial , ” held true , then those economies should be surging .
However , that isn ’ t the case .
Over the last decade annual GDP growth has remained weak growing at less than 3 % annually .
Deflation has remained a constant burden with wage growth almost non-existent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a “ liquidity trap.
” Lower interest rates fail to increase economic growth , and any contraction in monetary accommodation results in an almost immediate economic downturn .
“ Inflation is one way out of this debt as the purchasing power of the money you ’ re paying back on the debt gets lower over time .
This is the reason inflation is the biggest risk to bondholders over time .
If we have to worry about inflation in a few years I view that as a good problem to have because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are out spending money again and wages are rising .
The second way out of debt is simply growing the economy , something we have been very good at over the long haul.
” Taken out of context , such would certainly seem to be the case .
In an economy driven by debt , a rise in inflationary pressures would also be coincident with an increase in interest rates .
As we have repeatedly seen in recent history , even small increases in interest rates leads to rapid declines in economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inflation does diminish the value of the dollar , which is where inflation comes from .
However , inflation also reduces the purchasing power of wages .
This is problematic when wages have not grown for workers over the past 20-years .
Since debt does not increase economic growth , but retards it as it diverts dollars away from productive investments into debt service , it is hard to suggest we can “ grow our way out of debt.
” Otherwise , we would have done it by now .
What is clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , weak economic growth , low inflation , and ongoing monetary interventions has lead to a massive surge in debt in the U.S. and globally .
While many want to suggests that “ debt ” isn ’ t a problem , we don ’ t have to go far to see what ultimately happens .
Even before the onset of the COVID-19 virus , Japan has been struggling economically .
There is more to this story .
Since 2008 , Japan has been running a massive “ quantitative easing ” program which , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 3-times the size of that in the U.S .
However , while stock markets did rise with Central Bank interventions , long-term performance has remained muted .
More importantly , economic prosperity is only slightly higher than it was prior to the turn of century .
Lastly , despite the BOJ ’ s balance sheet consuming 80 % of ETFs , not to mention a sizable chunk of the corporate and government debt market , Japan has been plagued by rolling recessions , low inflation , and low-interest rates .
( Japan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative territory for the second time in recent years . )
Why is this important ?
Because Japan is a microcosm of what is happening in the U.S. As I noted previously : Should we worry about the debt ?
If Japan is indeed an template of what we will eventually face , the simple answer is “ yes.
” As global growth continues to slow , the negative impact of debt expands economic instability and wealth inequality .
Likewise , hope that Central Bank ’ s monetary ammunition can foster economic growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japan is a microcosm of what the U.S. will face in coming years as the “ 3-D ’ s ” of debt , deflation , and the inevitability of demographics continues to widen the wealth gap .
What Japan has shown us is that financial engineering doesn ’ t create prosperity , and over the medium to longer-term , it actually has negative consequences .
What is missed by those promoting the use of more debt , is the underlying flawed logic of using debt to solve a debt problem .
At some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by Lance Roberts
Should we worry about Government debt?
That was the question recently posed by Ben Carlson who laid out several arguments as to why spiraling Government debt may not matter. To wit:
“Is this debt so unsustainable it’s going to wreck future generations and leave them holding the bag? Are we really screwing the grandkids? Although absolute debt heading into this crisis was high, you could argue we’ve never been in a better position to add debt to the country’s balance sheet. Generationally low interest rates and subdued inflation make for a perfect opportunity to add debt during this type of crisis.”
The Conundrum
On the surface it certainly seems to be a reasonable argument. However, while everyone is in a hurry to rationalize the need to take on trillions in debt, no one is discussing either the consequences of such actions, or more importantly how, to reverse the process.
Ben’s view on debt is not unique. The WSJ maintains a similar view.
“The usual fear is that high government debt leads to a crisis or excessive inflation. But there’s little risk of the first, and nothing inevitable about the second. It depends on choices to be made by the Federal Reserve and, indirectly, Mr. McConnell, since he has some say in who sits on the Fed.”
“This doesn’t mean all that added debt is necessary or being put to its best possible use. It does mean it’s not doing much harm. ‘Interest rates have been trending down for 30 years,’ said Doug Elmendorf, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office who is now dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. ‘That doesn’t just make it manageable to have more debt. It’s a signal that the economic costs of that debt, in terms of crowding out private borrowers, is particularly low.’”
Debt Isn’t A Solution
I would readily agree with both views had the U.S. been fiscally responsible to start with. As I warned repeatedly in 2019:
“With the economy, and the financial markets, sporting the longest-duration in history, simple logic should suggest time is running out. Politicians, over the last decade, failed to use $34 trillion in monetary injections, near-zero interest rates, and surging asset prices to refinance the welfare system, balance the budget, and build surpluses for the next downturn. Instead, they only made the deficits worse, and the U.S. economy will enter the next recession pushing a $2 Trillion deficit, $24 Trillion in debt, and a $6 Trillion pension gap, which will devastate many in their retirement years.”
Unfortunately, my forecast proved overly optimistic.
Over the next few quarters, the U.S. will push a $4 trillion deficit as Government debt surges toward $27 trillion.
It’s a bit mind-boggling, considering in:
2007, the Senator Barack Obama chastised President George Bush for adding $4.5 trillion to the national debt during is 8-year term.
2016, Donald Trump railed on Barack Obama for adding $9 trillion to the debt load during his two terms as President.
2020, the media is now making excuses for adding $9 trillion in debt in just 4-years.
While it is true that generationally low interest rates seems to make running higher debt levels relatively “risk-free,” this is only because the right question isn’t being asked.
Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
Interest rates don’t operate in isolation.
Rates are a function of three primary factors: economic growth, wage growth, and inflation. The relationship can be seen in the chart below. The composite economic indicator is the composite of the three components.
Understanding that interest rates are a reflection of economic growth, we can view the impact of debt on the growth of the economy.
Not surprisingly, prior to 1980, economic growth rates rose as production led to rising incomes and demand. Since debt, and debt to income ratios, were relatively non-existent, savings were reinvested back into economy.
However, beginning in 1980, the view by Government that debt had no consequences, led to 40-years of deflationary pressures, slower economic growth, and ultimately lower interest rates.
Not Just A U.S. Problem
Global economies are currently holding nearly $78 trillion in debt, with nearly 20% of that debt sporting negative interest rates. If the theory “debt has no consequences” and “low interest rates are beneficial,” held true, then those economies should be surging.
However, that isn’t the case. Over the last decade annual GDP growth has remained weak growing at less than 3% annually. Deflation has remained a constant burden with wage growth almost non-existent.
What has risen rapidly? Wealth inequality.
Not surprisingly, we are caught in a “liquidity trap.” Lower interest rates fail to increase economic growth, and any contraction in monetary accommodation results in an almost immediate economic downturn.
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Inflation Isn’t The Answer
“Inflation is one way out of this debt as the purchasing power of the money you’re paying back on the debt gets lower over time. This is the reason inflation is the biggest risk to bondholders over time. If we have to worry about inflation in a few years I view that as a good problem to have because it means we beat this thing and people are out spending money again and wages are rising. The second way out of debt is simply growing the economy, something we have been very good at over the long haul.”
Taken out of context, such would certainly seem to be the case.
In an economy driven by debt, a rise in inflationary pressures would also be coincident with an increase in interest rates. As we have repeatedly seen in recent history, even small increases in interest rates leads to rapid declines in economic activity.
Ben is correct that rising inflation does diminish the value of the dollar, which is where inflation comes from. However, inflation also reduces the purchasing power of wages. This is problematic when wages have not grown for workers over the past 20-years.
Since debt does not increase economic growth, but retards it as it diverts dollars away from productive investments into debt service, it is hard to suggest we can “grow our way out of debt.”
Otherwise, we would have done it by now.
Let’s Be Like Japan
What is clear is that years of low interest rates, weak economic growth, low inflation, and ongoing monetary interventions has lead to a massive surge in debt in the U.S. and globally. While many want to suggests that “debt” isn’t a problem, we don’t have to go far to see what ultimately happens.
Even before the onset of the COVID-19 virus, Japan has been struggling economically.
There is more to this story.
Since 2008, Japan has been running a massive “quantitative easing” program which, on a relative basis, is more than 3-times the size of that in the U.S. However, while stock markets did rise with Central Bank interventions, long-term performance has remained muted.
More importantly, economic prosperity is only slightly higher than it was prior to the turn of century.
Lastly, despite the BOJ’s balance sheet consuming 80% of ETFs, not to mention a sizable chunk of the corporate and government debt market, Japan has been plagued by rolling recessions, low inflation, and low-interest rates. (Japan’s 10-year Treasury rate fell into negative territory for the second time in recent years.)
The End Game
Why is this important? Because Japan is a microcosm of what is happening in the U.S. As I noted previously:
“The U.S., like Japan, is caught in an ongoing ‘liquidity trap’ where maintaining ultra-low interest rates are the key to sustaining an economic pulse. The unintended consequence of such actions, as we are witnessing in the U.S. currently, is the battle with deflationary pressures. The lower interest rates go – the less economic return that can be generated. An ultra-low interest rate environment, contrary to mainstream thought, has a negative impact on making productive investments, and risk begins to outweigh the potential return. Most importantly, while there are many calling for an end of the ‘Great Bond Bull Market,’ this is unlikely the case. As shown in the chart below, interest rates are relative globally. Rates can’t increase in one country while a majority of economies are pushing negative rates. As has been the case over the last 30-years, so goes Japan, so goes the U.S.”
Japan Is A Template
Should we worry about the debt? If Japan is indeed an template of what we will eventually face, the simple answer is “yes.”
As global growth continues to slow, the negative impact of debt expands economic instability and wealth inequality. Likewise, hope that Central Bank’s monetary ammunition can foster economic growth or inflation has been sorely misplaced.
“The fact is that financial engineering does not help an economy, it probably hurts it. If it helped, after mega-doses of the stuff in every imaginable form, the Japanese economy would be humming. But the Japanese economy is doing the opposite. Japan tried to substitute monetary policy for sound fiscal and economic policy. And the result is terrible.” – Doug Kass
Japan is a microcosm of what the U.S. will face in coming years as the “3-D’s” of debt, deflation, and the inevitability of demographics continues to widen the wealth gap. What Japan has shown us is that financial engineering doesn’t create prosperity, and over the medium to longer-term, it actually has negative consequences.
This is a key point.
What is missed by those promoting the use of more debt, is the underlying flawed logic of using debt to solve a debt problem.
At some point you simply have to stop digging.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--Three ways to play earnings without getting IV crushed

If you ’ ve tried to play earnings with options though you ’ ve probably experienced IV crush .
The stock moves in your favor but you lose money anyway .
So I thought I ’ d give a quick rundown of what IV crush is and some simple strategies to avoid it .
Skip ahead to number 2 if you already know what IV crush is .
1 .
What is IV crush in relation to earnings ?
It ’ s easiest to think of it in terms of “ expected move.
” Implied volatility ( IV ) is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” is implied in the current options price .
Add up the price of the ATM call and ATM put , and this is how much of a move the market has priced in .
Expected move between now and expiration : 22.80 Naturally , after the earnings report is released there will be a much smaller expectation of movement over the remainder of the week , so the expected move will go down no matter which way the stock goes .
This is another way of saying IV is going down , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Strategies to play earnings without getting IV crushed : Deep ITM options get the majority of their price from their intrinsic value ( what you ’ d make if you exercised the option today ) as opposed to their extrinsic value ( IV and theta ) so there ’ s a lot less IV for them to lose , assuming you get a good fill .
You want to pay as close to intrinsic value as possible .
So if you ’ re buying the $ 160 put on a stock trading for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 26 as possible .
You ’ re gon na have to pay a little over but don ’ t just hit the ask , as the bid/ask can be wide on these .
Get on the right side of IV crush .
Personally I like to sell naked options , but spreads are good if you are a scared little baby or if your fake broker doesn ’ t let you sell naked options .
I like ATM the best because you collect the most premium , and if the stock trades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ works in your favor .
OTM does offer extra protection from the stock moving against you .
Keep in mind as you move OTM you are moving toward smaller wins and bigger losses , but also a higher win ratio .
Pennies in front of the steamroller .
Position the outer leg ( the leg you ’ re buying ) as far OTM as possible to increase your profitability if the stock trades flat and improve your odds of winning .
Or make it a narrower spread to make it closer to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trading at $ 134.50 and you sell the $ 134/ $ 135 put spread for $ 0.50 ( half the width of the strikes ) , that ’ s basically a double or nothing coin flip .
If you have a high degree of confidence in which way the stock is going , that ’ s pretty good leverage .
c ) Use options to be synthetically short/long shares If you want to gamble on direction in a way that is more leveraged than shares but completely free of Greek headaches , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Buy the ATM Call , sell the ATM put To go short : Sell the ATM call , buy the ATM put If you buy an ATM call and sell the ATM put of the same strike , your position is exactly the same as being long 100 shares .
The greeks from the long and short options cancel each other out .
The same is true if you buy the ATM put and sell the ATM call .
Your position is mathematically the same as being short 100 shares .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uses about half as much buying power as buying or selling shares on margin .
Just for example , based on numbers at market close today , buying an ATM call and selling an ATM put on $ W uses $ 3716 in buying power , as opposed to roughly $ 6700 to buy 100 shares on margin .
ii ) If your fake broker won ’ t let you sell naked options You can just buy a wide leg .
So if you ’ re going long just buy the ATM call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy a deep OTM put .
If you ’ re going short , buy the ATM put , sell the ATM call , and buy a deep OTM call .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by themadpooper
If you’ve tried to play earnings with options though you’ve probably experienced IV crush. The stock moves in your favor but you lose money anyway. So I thought I’d give a quick rundown of what IV crush is and some simple strategies to avoid it.
Skip ahead to number 2 if you already know what IV crush is.
(Yes there have been some posts on IV crush over the past few months but as far as I can tell they’re all huge walls of text, don’t give enough clear advice, and aren’t specifically about earnings, so here you go.)

1 . What is IV crush in relation to earnings?
It’s easiest to think of it in terms of “expected move.” Implied volatility (IV) is how much of an “expected move” is implied in the current options price. Add up the price of the ATM call and ATM put, and this is how much of a move the market has priced in.
Example: $W today at close:
$134 5/8 call = 11.80
$134 5/8 put = 11.00
Expected move between now and expiration: 22.80
Naturally, after the earnings report is released there will be a much smaller expectation of movement over the remainder of the week, so the expected move will go down no matter which way the stock goes. This is another way of saying IV is going down, i.e. IV crush.

2. Strategies to play earnings without getting IV crushed:
a) Buy Deep ITM calls/puts
Deep ITM options get the majority of their price from their intrinsic value (what you’d make if you exercised the option today) as opposed to their extrinsic value (IV and theta) so there’s a lot less IV for them to lose, assuming you get a good fill. You want to pay as close to intrinsic value as possible.
Strike – Stock price = intrinsic value
Example: $160 put – $134 stock price = $26 intrinsic value
So if you’re buying the $160 put on a stock trading for $134, pay as close to $26 as possible. You’re gonna have to pay a little over but don’t just hit the ask, as the bid/ask can be wide on these.

b) Sell naked options or spreads
Get on the right side of IV crush. Personally I like to sell naked options, but spreads are good if you are a scared little baby or if your fake broker doesn’t let you sell naked options.
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i) ATM vs OTM
I like ATM the best because you collect the most premium, and if the stock trades flat you still win because IV crush works in your favor.
OTM does offer extra protection from the stock moving against you. Keep in mind as you move OTM you are moving toward smaller wins and bigger losses, but also a higher win ratio. Pennies in front of the steamroller.
ii) Spread positioning
Position the outer leg (the leg you’re buying) as far OTM as possible to increase your profitability if the stock trades flat and improve your odds of winning.
Or make it a narrower spread to make it closer to a binary event. If the stock is trading at $134.50 and you sell the $134/$135 put spread for $0.50 (half the width of the strikes), that’s basically a double or nothing coin flip. If you have a high degree of confidence in which way the stock is going, that’s pretty good leverage.

c) Use options to be synthetically short/long shares
If you want to gamble on direction in a way that is more leveraged than shares but completely free of Greek headaches, this is for you.
To go long: Buy the ATM Call, sell the ATM put
To go short: Sell the ATM call, buy the ATM put
If you buy an ATM call and sell the ATM put of the same strike, your position is exactly the same as being long 100 shares. The greeks from the long and short options cancel each other out.
The same is true if you buy the ATM put and sell the ATM call. Your position is mathematically the same as being short 100 shares.
The beauty, though, is that it uses about half as much buying power as buying or selling shares on margin. Just for example, based on numbers at market close today, buying an ATM call and selling an ATM put on $W uses $3716 in buying power, as opposed to roughly $6700 to buy 100 shares on margin.
ii) If your fake broker won’t let you sell naked options
You can just buy a wide leg. So if you’re going long just buy the ATM call, Sell the ATM put, and buy a deep OTM put. If you’re going short, buy the ATM put, sell the ATM call, and buy a deep OTM call.

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--Tough Times Ahead – 85 Million Unemployed Americans

After The Resets Only Gold Will Remain

After The Resets Only Gold Will Remain
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--WWIII CHILLING ALERT: US To Engage In Hot War With China?—You Wont Believe What’s Happening!

FOR LINKS REFERENCE IN VIDEO SEE : bit.ly/2L0hcDq

FOR LINKS REFERENCE IN VIDEO SEE:
bit.ly/2L0hcDq
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--Ruh-Roh Time For Stock Market Bulls? Keep An Eye On These Bearish Reversals!

Is it Ruh-Roh Time for stock market bulls ?
Possible !
!
!
Stock market bulls might have received a @ @ @ @ @ from numerous indices !
This 4-pack reflects that each popular index created a sizeable bearish @ @ @ @ @ retracement levels last week .
Keep this in mind ; one week does not make @ @ @ @ @ is needed to see if important counter-trend highs took place last week .
Also , @ @ @ @ @ bearish reversals at Fibonacci retracement levels are not something that stock bulls want to see @ @ @ @ @ rallies !

by Kimble Charting
Is it Ruh-Roh Time for stock market bulls? Possible!!!
Stock market bulls might have received a very concerning message last week from numerous indices!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This 4-pack reflects that each popular index created a sizeable bearish reversal pattern at respective Fibonacci retracement levels last week.
Keep this in mind; one week does not make a trend. More time is needed to see if important counter-trend highs took place last week.
Also, keep this in mind, bearish reversals at Fibonacci retracement levels are not something that stock bulls want to see take place, during counter-trend rallies!


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--Technically Speaking: Will The Market Retest Lows This Summer?

Will the market retest lows this summer ?
In this past weekend ’ s commentary , I discussed the end of the seasonally strong period for the market .
As noted , the primary seasonal signal has not crossed into negative territory yet but seems to be heading in that direction .
If we keep grinding sideways for a few more sessions , it will come to pass .
( Note : Sell-off Monday morning did test and hold support at the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level . )
“ The massive rally has undoubtedly been impressive and a welcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February and March .
April 2020 has been the best month since January 1987 for DJIA and S & P 500 , and the best April since 1938 .
But April ’ s huge move was not enough to put the Best Six Months ( November-April ) in the black , and that concerns us .
The DJIA was down 10.0 % for this Best Six Months period , which ended today , and the S & P 500 lost 4.1 % .
When the market is down during the “ Best Six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indication that there are more powerful forces than seasonality at work , and when the bullish season is over , those forces may really have their say.
” – Jeff Hirsch John Murphy , of Stockcharts.com , also suggests the spring rally may have concluded .
“ It ’ s also not far from its falling 200-day average , which is also likely to act as an overhead resistance barrier ( red arrow ) .
The short-term momentum indicators may also be weakening .
The 14-day RSI line in the upper box ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it in danger of falling back below its mid-line at 50 .
That would signal that the market uptrend is losing momentum .
The daily MACD lines in the middle box are still positive .
But the declining purple trendline overlaid on the MACD histogram bars ( which measure the spread between the two MACD lines ) suggests that upward momentum may be slowing there as well.
” Both analyses confirms our work and leaves the question of just how deep the retracement may be unanswered ?
There is much to be concerned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aware of what has happened since the onset of the “ COVID-19 ” virus , we are beginning to get the first sets of actual data .
Plunging levels of production , manufacturing , sales , and surging rates of unemployment will potentially weigh on investor outlooks .
Currently , the investing mantra has been that investors are “ looking past ” the 2020 period , and into 2021 , betting on earnings growth to come surging back .
While such could be the case , investors are aggressively overpaying for future growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on how deep the earnings recession will be .
However , as noted previously , we can certainly make an educated guess based on past recessionary experience .
A review of GAAP Earnings as compared to GDP suggests such is likely not the case .
There is a high correlation between economic growth and corporate earnings .
Such is because without economic growth , consumers don ’ t have paychecks with which to consume .
Ultimately , it is consumption that drives corporate profits .
Assuming a 15 % decline in GDP ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % ) , the suggestion of only a 20 % decline in earnings seems naive .
However , the latest update from Standard & Poors for S & P 500 earnings contains a mild revision in earnings estimates .
We suspect these are still too high , as is the expected recovery .
To garner a better understanding , the two charts below compare operating ( earnings before real stuff ) to reported ( actual ) earnings , on both an annual basis and as compared to Q4-2019 .
Given the magnitude of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline in earnings seems optimistic .
Such also suggests that valuations at current levels remain rich as well .
Maybe this is why Warren Buffett is sitting on $ 138 billion in cash and telling his investors he can ’ t find anything attractive to buy .
“ Price is what you pay ; value is you get.
” – Warren Buffett As earnings align with economic realities , the risk to markets currently remains to the downside .
We posted the following note from Turning Point Analytics for our RIA PRO subscribers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Bespoke looked at bear markets since 1928 ( the past 92 years ) to determine how many times a bear market made new lows after initially rallying out of the bear market territory .
They found that markets made new lows after rallying more often than not , but found that more recent results were less ominous .
Our analysis of the Bespoke results yielded a different conclusion .
• Number of bear markets since 5/14/40 to make a new low = 6 • Percent of bear markets making new lows since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counted as separate bear markets , several periods that should count as part of a longer bear market .
If we make sure that a new period must be at least 12 months past the previous period , then there are only 15 , not 25 separate periods .
Out of the 15 bear markets , 9 made new lows or 60 % .
Using this new definition of the market periods means that in the past 20 years ( since 2000 ) , ALL of the bear markets have made new lows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think this analysis makes more sense , as we don ’ t include the period from 1/6/09 to 3/9/09 in the 2008-2009 bear market ?
It does not make much sense to talk about these last 2-months as a separate bear market .
This perspective on the historic pattern points to a much more likely retest of the 3/23 lows.
” Will markets retrace to the March 23rd lows ?
Maybe .
It is a “ risk ” worth evaluating when investing your capital .
As investors , there are many possibilities and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is to weigh those outcomes and make informed decisions .
“ Hoping ” is not an investment strategy or a logical decision-making process .
Even if the markets have indeed put in the “ bear market ” low , there is more than a small chance , it is not the final low .
When even Warren Buffett calls out Energy , Retail , Airlines , and Non-Residential Real Estate ( read REIT ’ s ) as industries that have been destabilized and will not likely resemble the past in terms of growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your investment “ risk.
” Those sectors are core reflections of the broader economy , and while Technology are insulated from complete revenue destruction , they are not immune from a slow down in personal and business spending .
There is risk to the downside currently , more so than there is to the upside .
As we head into the “ seasonally weak ” period of the year , coupled with a deluge of weak economic and earnings data , this is likely a good time to rebalance portfolio risk .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market to retest lows when you are least expecting it .

by Lance Roberts
Will the market retest lows this summer? In this past weekend’s commentary, I discussed the end of the seasonally strong period for the market.
“Despite the sell-off on the last day of April, the Best Six Months has ended on a positive note, registering the best month in decades and the best April since the Great Depression.” – Jeffrey Hirsch, Stocktraders Almanac
As noted, the primary seasonal signal has not crossed into negative territory yet but seems to be heading in that direction. If we keep grinding sideways for a few more sessions, it will come to pass. (Note: Sell-off Monday morning did test and hold support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.)
“The massive rally has undoubtedly been impressive and a welcome change from the carnage we experienced in February and March. April 2020 has been the best month since January 1987 for DJIA and S&P 500, and the best April since 1938. But April’s huge move was not enough to put the Best Six Months (November-April) in the black, and that concerns us. The DJIA was down 10.0% for this Best Six Months period, which ended today, and the S&P 500 lost 4.1%. When the market is down during the “Best Six Months,” it’s an indication that there are more powerful forces than seasonality at work, and when the bullish season is over, those forces may really have their say.” – Jeff Hirsch
Confirming Analysis
John Murphy, of Stockcharts.com, also suggests the spring rally may have concluded.
“Several short-term technical indicators suggest that the spring rebound in stocks may have peaked this past week. The daily bars show the S&P 500 selling off on Thursday and Friday after touching its 62% Fibonacci retracement line (purple arrow).”
“It’s also not far from its falling 200-day average, which is also likely to act as an overhead resistance barrier (red arrow). The short-term momentum indicators may also be weakening. The 14-day RSI line in the upper box ended the week at 52, which puts it in danger of falling back below its mid-line at 50. That would signal that the market uptrend is losing momentum. The daily MACD lines in the middle box are still positive. But the declining purple trendline overlaid on the MACD histogram bars (which measure the spread between the two MACD lines) suggests that upward momentum may be slowing there as well.”
Both analyses confirms our work and leaves the question of just how deep the retracement may be unanswered?
Risk Abounds
There is much to be concerned with.
While we are already well aware of what has happened since the onset of the “COVID-19” virus, we are beginning to get the first sets of actual data. Plunging levels of production, manufacturing, sales, and surging rates of unemployment will potentially weigh on investor outlooks.
Currently, the investing mantra has been that investors are “looking past” the 2020 period, and into 2021, betting on earnings growth to come surging back. While such could be the case, investors are aggressively overpaying for future growth, considering a complete lack of visibility on how deep the earnings recession will be.
However, as noted previously, we can certainly make an educated guess based on past recessionary experience.
“So, with the entire U.S. economy shut down, 15-20% unemployment, and -20% GDP, earnings are only expected to decline by 10 20%?”
A review of GAAP Earnings as compared to GDP suggests such is likely not the case. There is a high correlation between economic growth and corporate earnings. Such is because without economic growth, consumers don’t have paychecks with which to consume. Ultimately, it is consumption that drives corporate profits.
Optimistic Assumptions
Assuming a 15% decline in GDP (some estimates run as high as 30%), the suggestion of only a 20% decline in earnings seems naive. However, the latest update from Standard & Poors for S&P 500 earnings contains a mild revision in earnings estimates. We suspect these are still too high, as is the expected recovery.
To garner a better understanding, the two charts below compare operating (earnings before real stuff) to reported (actual) earnings, on both an annual basis and as compared to Q4-2019.
Given the magnitude of potential economic destruction, a 20% decline in earnings seems optimistic. Such also suggests that valuations at current levels remain rich as well.
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Maybe this is why Warren Buffett is sitting on $138 billion in cash and telling his investors he can’t find anything attractive to buy.
“Price is what you pay; value is you get.” – Warren Buffett
As earnings align with economic realities, the risk to markets currently remains to the downside.
Will The Market Retest Lows?
We posted the following note from Turning Point Analytics for our RIA PRO subscribers (30-day Risk-FREE Trial) yesterday.
“Bespoke looked at bear markets since 1928 (the past 92 years) to determine how many times a bear market made new lows after initially rallying out of the bear market territory. They found that markets made new lows after rallying more often than not, but found that more recent results were less ominous. Our analysis of the Bespoke results yielded a different conclusion. Original Bespoke data and results Number of bear markets counted = 25
Number of bear markets making new lows = 14
Percent of bear markets making new lows = 56%
Number of bear markets since 5/14/40 to make a new low = 6
Percent of bear markets making new lows since 5/14/40 = 42% However, Bespoke counted as separate bear markets, several periods that should count as part of a longer bear market. If we make sure that a new period must be at least 12 months past the previous period, then there are only 15, not 25 separate periods. Out of the 15 bear markets, 9 made new lows or 60%. Using this new definition of the market periods means that in the past 20 years (since 2000), ALL of the bear markets have made new lows (see annotated table 2) We think this analysis makes more sense, as we don’t include the period from 1/6/09 to 3/9/09 in the 2008-2009 bear market? It does not make much sense to talk about these last 2-months as a separate bear market. This perspective on the historic pattern points to a much more likely retest of the 3/23 lows.”
Conclusion
Will markets retrace to the March 23rd lows? Maybe.
It is a “risk” worth evaluating when investing your capital. As investors, there are many possibilities and probabilities of future outcomes. Our job is to weigh those outcomes and make informed decisions.
“Hoping” is not an investment strategy or a logical decision-making process.
Even if the markets have indeed put in the “bear market” low, there is more than a small chance, it is not the final low.
When even Warren Buffett calls out Energy, Retail, Airlines, and Non-Residential Real Estate (read REIT’s) as industries that have been destabilized and will not likely resemble the past in terms of growth and profitability, you have to question your investment “risk.”
Those sectors are core reflections of the broader economy, and while Technology are insulated from complete revenue destruction, they are not immune from a slow down in personal and business spending.
There is risk to the downside currently, more so than there is to the upside. As we head into the “seasonally weak” period of the year, coupled with a deluge of weak economic and earnings data, this is likely a good time to rebalance portfolio risk.
There is not an insignificant chance of the market to retest lows when you are least expecting it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--The USA will Spend! Spend! Spend! As we wonder whatever happened to the debt ceiling?

Yesterday evening there was a piece of news which created a stir even in these inflated times .
So without further ado let me hand you over to the US Treasury Department .
I have to confess the numbers did not look right so I checked the February release .
This was to be quite an improvement on where it was at the time .
So we return to the concept of some US 3 trillion dollars being borrowed in a single quarter .
As to the higher cash balance which is in the process of being doubled that looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US is spending at such a rate it needs more to avoid the risk of a cash crunch .
Indeed the process is well under way .
Where is the money going ?
The US Treasury is light on some detail but the Paycheck Protection Program had spent some US $ 350 billion very quickly so we then saw this .
The original stimulus effort was described below by CNN .
We can see that like the small business loans the numbers are likely to have been climbing higher and higher .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seem to be being paid to ever higher numbers .
I think we can figure out for ourselves what has been happening to tax revenues .
In ordinary times one might have expected this market to have cratered .
I have worked through times when futures markets prices limits are employed ( it was initially 2 points and then moves to 3 points ) .
But the surge in expected borrowing has provided nothing of the sort and these days eyes turn first to the US Federal Reserve and its Quantitative Easing programme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is a sort of combination of “ whatever it takes ” and “ To Infinity !
And Beyond !
” in my opinion .
We saw purchases of US $ 75 billion a day in the height of the panic and we should not forget that in the heat of the “ Not QE ” phase some US $ 60 billion of US Treasury Bills were bought a month .
So we see that it now owns some US $ 3.97 trillion of Treasury Securities which has risen by US $ 1.8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although we are now seeing a much lower daily amount of QE purchases the surge of buying has anaesthetised the market .
This week only US $ 8 billion a day is being bought and yet we see the benchmark yield for the ten-year Treasury Note if a mere 0.67 % .
The long bond ( 30 year ) has responded a little but at 1.33 % is less than half what it was this time last year .
There is a long wait for such numbers but here is what the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total national debt was US $ 23.7 trillion at the end of March and is about to go on something of a tear .
On the other side of the coin economic output as measured by GDP or Gross Domestic Product is about to plunge .
Or if you prefer .
Also the US Federal Reserve is about to get rather popular as we note how this trend will change in 2020 .
I guess both the US Federal Reserve and Treasury will be singing along with Prince for a while .

by Shaun Richards
Yesterday evening there was a piece of news which created a stir even in these inflated times. So without further ado let me hand you over to the US Treasury Department.
During the April – June 2020 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $2,999 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $800 billion. The borrowing estimate is $3,055 billion higher than announced in February 2020.
I have to confess the numbers did not look right so I checked the February release.
During the April – June 2020 quarter, Treasury expects to pay down $56 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $400 billion.
This was to be quite an improvement on where it was at the time.
During the January – March 2020 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $367 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $400 billion.
So we return to the concept of some US 3 trillion dollars being borrowed in a single quarter. As to the higher cash balance which is in the process of being doubled that looks as though it is simply because the US is spending at such a rate it needs more to avoid the risk of a cash crunch. Indeed the process is well under way.
During the January – March 2020 quarter, Treasury borrowed $477 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $515 billion. In February 2020, Treasury estimated privately-held net marketable borrowing of $367 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $400 billion. The $110 billion increase in borrowing resulted primarily from the higher end-of-quarter cash balance.
Where is the money going?
The US Treasury is light on some detail but the Paycheck Protection Program had spent some US $350 billion very quickly so we then saw this.
WASHINGTON (CNN) The Trump administration announced Sunday that 2.2 million small business loans worth $175 billion have been made in the second round of the Paycheck Protection Program……Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Small Business Administration Administrator Jovita Carranza said in a joint statement that the average size of a loan made under the second iteration of the program, which began Monday, was $79,000.
The original stimulus effort was described below by CNN.
Congressional lawmakers put the finishing touches on a $2 trillion stimulus bill to respond to the coronavirus pandemic, with cash and assistance for regular Americans, Main Street businesses and hard-hit airlines and manufacturers, among others……..Key elements of the proposal are $250 billion set aside for direct payments to individuals and families, $350 billion in small business loans, $250 billion in unemployment insurance benefits and $500 billion in loans for distressed companies.
We can see that like the small business loans the numbers are likely to have been climbing higher and higher. As to the new higher employment benefits they seem to be being paid to ever higher numbers.
The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 17,776,006, an increase of 1,498,784 (or 9.2 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 648,558 (or -4.0 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.1 percent and the volume was 1,647,874 ( Department of Labor)
I think we can figure out for ourselves what has been happening to tax revenues.
Treasury Bonds and QE
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In ordinary times one might have expected this market to have cratered. I have worked through times when futures markets prices limits are employed ( it was initially 2 points and then moves to 3 points). But the surge in expected borrowing has provided nothing of the sort and these days eyes turn first to the US Federal Reserve and its Quantitative Easing programme. The emphasis below is mine.
To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.
That is a sort of combination of “whatever it takes” and “To Infinity! And Beyond!” in my opinion. We saw purchases of US $75 billion a day in the height of the panic and we should not forget that in the heat of the “Not QE” phase some US $60 billion of US Treasury Bills were bought a month. So we see that it now owns some US $3.97 trillion of Treasury Securities which has risen by US $1.8 trlllion on the past year.
Thus although we are now seeing a much lower daily amount of QE purchases the surge of buying has anaesthetised the market. This week only US $8 billion a day is being bought and yet we see the benchmark yield for the ten-year Treasury Note if a mere 0.67%. The long bond ( 30 year) has responded a little but at 1.33% is less than half what it was this time last year.
Foreign Holdings
There is a long wait for such numbers but here is what the US Treasury thinks that they are.
The survey measured the value of foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities as of end-June 2019 to be $20,534 billion, with $8,630 billion held in U.S. equities, $10,991 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities [/1] (of which $1,417 billion are holdings of asset-backed securities (ABS) [/2] and $9,575 billion are holdings of non-ABS securities), and $913 billion held in U.S. short-term debt securities.
Comment
Remember the debt ceiling?
Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Congressional leaders in both parties have recognized that this is necessary. ( US Treasury )
Anyway the total national debt was US $23.7 trillion at the end of March and is about to go on something of a tear. On the other side of the coin economic output as measured by GDP or Gross Domestic Product is about to plunge.
The WEI is currently -11.58 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ending April 25 and -10.86 percent for April 18; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 percent for the week ending February 29. ( New York Fed )
Or if you prefer.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -9.3% for 2020:Q2.
Also the US Federal Reserve is about to get rather popular as we note how this trend will change in 2020.
In 2019, the Federal Reserve remitted a total of $54.9 billion to the Treasury, less than the $65.3 billion remitted in 2018, owing primarily to a decline in net income resulting from a decrease in average SOMA domestic securities holdings.
I guess both the US Federal Reserve and Treasury will be singing along with Prince for a while.
Money don’t matter to night
It sure didn’t matter yesterday
Just when you think you’ve got more than enough
That’s when it all up and flies away
That’s when you find out that you’re better off
Makin’ sure your soul’s alright
‘Cause money didn’t matter yesterday,
And it sure don’t matter to night


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--The Service Sector Still Awaits Its Second Chance

Main Street needs customers .
The Fed , for as much as it is trying to flood the markets with money , can ’ t create them .
And yet , the jet fuel has succeeded in pushing stock benchmarks and valuations back near their old highs .
Clearly , and probably rightly , investors are willing to look past the second- and possibly even third-quarter earnings , which everyone acknowledges will be dismal .
But what happens when earnings are dismal in the fourth quarter ?
With the Fed in the mix , I suppose new market highs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I can ’ t imagine it lasting long .
The animal spirits that drove well-known names higher are seriously weaker than they were in February , and I don ’ t foresee them coming back .
Here ’ s what I do see .
• Some businesses , small and large , will do extremely well in this environment .
Their earnings will rise and help pull the indexes up .
Likewise , we are going to lose more businesses than most currently think .
They will have the opposite effect .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s market .
Index investors , as I have been saying for several years , will get their heads and their 401 ( k ) s handed to them .
• The market is looking past the next two quarters .
But are investors going to look past the fourth quarter ?
Even if we get a vaccine by year-end , it will be a miracle if we all get it by the end of 2021 ’ s first quarter .
And balance sheets have been destroyed for so many businesses .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as seasoned management will need capital .
It is entirely possible that investors simply become disillusioned with looking past the next few quarters ’ earnings .
At some point , the attitude will change to , “ Show me the money !
” Then again , who knows what the Fed will do .
If the market starts turning down will they start buying stock ETFs like Japan is ?
Dear gods , I hope not .
But right now , there is simply no way to predict what they will do .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies currently in the S & P 500 will not be there 12 to 15 months from now .
The big indexes are composed of the biggest companies .
Which means that we are looking at not only a whole new economy , but perhaps an entirely new market landscape .
Just a reminder : Bull markets like this one don ’ t just retreat to reasonable valuations .
They usually overshoot to the downside , just as they did on the upside .
The lower bound is probably lower than many “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be good for Baby Boomers ’ retirement plans .
This experience is going to leave deep scars on the economy , and on consumer/investor/business sentiment .
This is going to scar a generation just as deeply as the Great Depression scarred our parents and grandparents .
Things we once took for granted—a leisurely restaurant meal , catching a movie , sharing a concert or a ballgame with other fans—are gone now and will come back in a different form .
But they will come back .
We ’ re moving from one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we want to or not .
We are all going to need that roadmap , and I want you on the journey with me .
At my first-ever live virtual Strategic Investment Conference this month , we ’ ll focus on what the economy will look like over the next six months and in a post-vaccine world .
You ’ ll hear from thought leaders who can show you what ’ s important , where the opportunities are and what to avoid .
Learn more here .

by John Mauldin
Main Street needs customers. The Fed, for as much as it is trying to flood the markets with money, can’t create them.
And yet, the jet fuel has succeeded in pushing stock benchmarks and valuations back near their old highs. Clearly, and probably rightly, investors are willing to look past the second- and possibly even third-quarter earnings, which everyone acknowledges will be dismal.
But what happens when earnings are dismal in the fourth quarter?
With the Fed in the mix, I suppose new market highs are possible this year or next, but I can’t imagine it lasting long. The animal spirits that drove well-known names higher are seriously weaker than they were in February, and I don’t foresee them coming back.
Here’s what I do see.
Some businesses, small and large, will do extremely well in this environment. Their earnings will rise and help pull the indexes up. Likewise, we are going to lose more businesses than most currently think. They will have the opposite effect. This is going to be a stock-picker’s market. Index investors, as I have been saying for several years, will get their heads and their 401(k)s handed to them.
The market is looking past the next two quarters. But are investors going to look past the fourth quarter? Even if we get a vaccine by year-end, it will be a miracle if we all get it by the end of 2021’s first quarter. And balance sheets have been destroyed for so many businesses. There will be opportunities for startups everywhere, as seasoned management will need capital.
It is entirely possible that investors simply become disillusioned with looking past the next few quarters’ earnings. At some point, the attitude will change to, “Show me the money!” Then again, who knows what the Fed will do. If the market starts turning down will they start buying stock ETFs like Japan is? Dear gods, I hope not. But right now, there is simply no way to predict what they will do.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I will bet that over 100 companies currently in the S&P 500 will not be there 12 to 15 months from now. The big indexes are composed of the biggest companies. Which means that we are looking at not only a whole new economy, but perhaps an entirely new market landscape.
Just a reminder: Bull markets like this one don’t just retreat to reasonable valuations. They usually overshoot to the downside, just as they did on the upside. The lower bound is probably lower than many “worst-case” scenarios suggest.
That will not be good for Baby Boomers’ retirement plans.
This experience is going to leave deep scars on the economy, and on consumer/investor/business sentiment. This is going to scar a generation just as deeply as the Great Depression scarred our parents and grandparents.
Things we once took for granted—a leisurely restaurant meal, catching a movie, sharing a concert or a ballgame with other fans—are gone now and will come back in a different form.
But they will come back. We’re moving from one world to the next—an Age of Transformation—whether we want to or not.
We are all going to need that roadmap, and I want you on the journey with me. At my first-ever live virtual Strategic Investment Conference this month, we’ll focus on what the economy will look like over the next six months and in a post-vaccine world. You’ll hear from thought leaders who can show you what’s important, where the opportunities are and what to avoid. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--Protests Across California Show You Can Only Push People So Far

Even in California , a heavily socialist , overbearing tyrannical nanny-state , people are standing up for their rights .
Human beings were never meant to be caged by a few elitists and people have finally gotten sick of their enslavement to the political overlords .
Protests raged all over the United States over the weekend as millions of people begged the very government that enslaved them to free them .
Obviously , that ’ s not how it works , but the fact they are realizing no other human has a higher claim over them is at least , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People have finally grown tired of obeying the commands of the ruling class , and they have taken to disobeying orders to imprison themselves in their homes so they won ’ t spread a virus that even by government ’ s exaggerated numbers is still no worse than the flu .
The primary threat to freedom and justice is not greed , or hatred , or any of the other emotions or human flaws usually blamed for such things .
Instead , it is one ubiquitous superstition that infects the minds of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationalities , which deceives decent , well-intentioned people into supporting and advocating violence and oppression .
Even without making human beings one bit more wise or virtuous , removing that one superstition ( the belief in authority , that some have the right to command , and others have to obey ) would remove the vast majority of injustice and suffering from the world .
The solution to these lockdowns has been with us the whole time .
We outnumber the police state and politicians by “ orders of magnitude.
” If we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free human beings we were meant to be , there ’ s nothing the ruling class can do to stop us short of trying to make an example of a handful of people .
But once we stick together and disallow them to make examples of those people , we will be free .
There is no need for violence or begging .
Being free is our birthright and we should disobey any command that imprisons us and harms ourselves or others .
We all need to realize it ’ s time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ legal ” thing .
If you ’ re afraid of getting sick , stay in your home .
If you don ’ t want to open your business , don ’ t .
But it ’ s the height of privilege to look down on those who are simply living their lives free of the chains the ruling class is desperately trying to force them into .
People all over are finally realizing that they were not born to be slaves to the elite few and the “ order followers ” such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take a hard look at themselves and what they are enforcing .
Cops and military : your children will have to live the world you are enforcing .
If you want them to bow to a totalitarian police state , by all means , keep “ enforcing ” the will of tyrants on free people .
But if you crave liberty , and want your children to have a life free from slavery , it ’ s time to stand up and say so .
This has become black and white .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not .
You either enforce tyranny or you do not .
It ’ s not a gray area .
To those few cops who have stood up and refused to violate the rights of people , it ’ s appreciated .
Now stand with those who want freedom , or align yourself with enslavement and tyranny .
There ’ s no middle ground .
This all ends when WE say it does .
I ’ ve said this from the beginning .
They can not enslave us once we all realize it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we go about our lives in defiance of their orders , and peacefully coexist with each other .
We are more powerful than they will ever allow us to know , and all we have to do is realize it .
This is just the beginning of humanity getting off its knees .
It started when the government attempted to force falsified data about a virus down our throats , and it ends when we say it does .
Take their power away by being uncontrollable .
Take your mind back from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yourself to be enslaved .
If you want to hear an uplifting message about why it ’ s important to speak truth to power and take your power back and just live as the free human you are , watch the video below .
It ’ s long , but just the first few minutes are positive and will help you realize you are more powerful than any politician , tyrannical police state enforcer , or elitist .
You just have to realize it .
This is the truth the “ cabal ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : It ’ s time to wake up and be free as we were all meant to be .
You don ’ t need the government , the elitists , or the cops permission to be free .
That ’ s what the ruling class doesn ’ t want you to know .

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
Even in California, a heavily socialist, overbearing tyrannical nanny-state, people are standing up for their rights. Human beings were never meant to be caged by a few elitists and people have finally gotten sick of their enslavement to the political overlords.
Protests raged all over the United States over the weekend as millions of people begged the very government that enslaved them to free them. Obviously, that’s not how it works, but the fact they are realizing no other human has a higher claim over them is at least, a step in the right direction.
People have finally grown tired of obeying the commands of the ruling class, and they have taken to disobeying orders to imprison themselves in their homes so they won’t spread a virus that even by government’s exaggerated numbers is still no worse than the flu.
The primary threat to freedom and justice is not greed, or hatred, or any of the other emotions or human flaws usually blamed for such things. Instead, it is one ubiquitous superstition that infects the minds of people of all races, religions, and nationalities, which deceives decent, well-intentioned people into supporting and advocating violence and oppression. Even without making human beings one bit more wise or virtuous, removing that one superstition (the belief in authority, that some have the right to command, and others have to obey) would remove the vast majority of injustice and suffering from the world.
The solution to these lockdowns has been with us the whole time. We outnumber the police state and politicians by “orders of magnitude.” If we decide to live our lives as the free human beings we were meant to be, there’s nothing the ruling class can do to stop us short of trying to make an example of a handful of people. But once we stick together and disallow them to make examples of those people, we will be free.
There is no need for violence or begging. Being free is our birthright and we should disobey any command that imprisons us and harms ourselves or others. We all need to realize it’s time to do the right thing, not the “legal” thing.
If you’re afraid of getting sick, stay in your home. If you don’t want to open your business, don’t. But it’s the height of privilege to look down on those who are simply living their lives free of the chains the ruling class is desperately trying to force them into. People all over are finally realizing that they were not born to be slaves to the elite few and the “order followers” such as police and the military need to take a hard look at themselves and what they are enforcing.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Cops and military: your children will have to live the world you are enforcing. If you want them to bow to a totalitarian police state, by all means, keep “enforcing” the will of tyrants on free people. But if you crave liberty, and want your children to have a life free from slavery, it’s time to stand up and say so.
This has become black and white. You are either free, or you are not. You either enforce tyranny or you do not. It’s not a gray area.
To those few cops who have stood up and refused to violate the rights of people, it’s appreciated. Now stand with those who want freedom, or align yourself with enslavement and tyranny. There’s no middle ground.
This all ends when WE say it does. I’ve said this from the beginning. They cannot enslave us once we all realize it’s our birthright to be free and we go about our lives in defiance of their orders, and peacefully coexist with each other. We are more powerful than they will ever allow us to know, and all we have to do is realize it.
This is just the beginning of humanity getting off its knees. It started when the government attempted to force falsified data about a virus down our throats, and it ends when we say it does. Take their power away by being uncontrollable. Take your mind back from the mainstream media, and never again allow yourself to be enslaved.
If you want to hear an uplifting message about why it’s important to speak truth to power and take your power back and just live as the free human you are, watch the video below. It’s long, but just the first few minutes are positive and will help you realize you are more powerful than any politician, tyrannical police state enforcer, or elitist. You just have to realize it.
This is the truth the “cabal” doesn’t want you to know:
“The universe is not working in humanity’s favor right now, because humanity has externalized its power to other entities. And everything that happening…everything that’s happening right now on the planet is…because of humanity’s ignorance.” –Ralph Smart
It’s time to wake up and be free as we were all meant to be. You don’t need the government, the elitists, or the cops permission to be free. That’s what the ruling class doesn’t want you to know.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--A LAWLESS FEDERAL RESERVE

A LAWLESS FEDERAL RESERVE

The Fed ’ s experiment with junk bonds is about to begin .
Critics argue the Fed is overstepping its @ @ @ @ @ — a step it never took during the 2008 financial crisis .
Gundlach said the @ @ @ @ @ shell company set up to circumvent ” the Federal Reserve Act , which created the @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve Act prohibits the Fed from buying corporate assets .
To get around that @ @ @ @ @ setting up a special purpose vehicle managed by BlackRock ( BLK ) to do the @ @ @ @ @ cited “ unusual and exigent circumstances ” that authorizes the Fed under Section 13-3 of @ @ @ @ @ conduct “ broad-based ” lending facilities .
Still , the Fed will be the one @ @ @ @ @ Fed website said BlackRock will be “ acting at the sole direction of the New @ @ @ @ @ the facilities.
” “ It ’ s terrible what they are doing .
The Fed @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve Act , ” said Boockvar , the Bleakley Advisory Group CIO .

The Fed’s experiment with junk bonds is about to begin.
Critics argue the Fed is overstepping its mandate by purchasing corporate bonds — a step it never took during the 2008 financial crisis. Gundlach said the Fed is using a “shell company set up to circumvent” the Federal Reserve Act, which created the US central bank.
The Federal Reserve Act prohibits the Fed from buying corporate assets. To get around that problem, the Fed is setting up a special purpose vehicle managed by BlackRock (BLK) to do the buying. The central bank cited “unusual and exigent circumstances” that authorizes the Fed under Section 13-3 of the Federal Reserve Act to conduct “broad-based” lending facilities. Still, the Fed will be the one calling the shots. The Fed website said BlackRock will be “acting at the sole direction of the New York Fed on behalf of the facilities.” “It’s terrible what they are doing. The Fed did a complete runaround the Federal Reserve Act,” said Boockvar, the Bleakley Advisory Group CIO.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--I’d like to know more about whether asymptomatic transmission is a serious threat.

This report from February says the study claiming that it is is flawed .
That leads Clarice Feldman to write @ @ @ @ @ to believe that even asymptomatic persons could transmit the virus .
We now learn that @ @ @ @ @ was based on a false account .
People without fevers , coughs , sneezes can @ @ @ @ @ ’ d certainly like this to be true , but I ’ m not sure @ @ @ @ @ to support that .
Is there something more out there that I ’ ve missed @ @ @ @ @ 370 people who tested positive at this Missouri pork plant were asymptomatic .
If it @ @ @ @ @ , how did they get infected ?

This report from February says the study claiming that it is is flawed. That leads Clarice Feldman to write: “We were led to believe that even asymptomatic persons could transmit the virus. We now learn that isn’t true and was based on a false account. People without fevers, coughs, sneezes cannot transmit COVID-19.” I’d certainly like this to be true, but I’m not sure the February report is enough to support that. Is there something more out there that I’ve missed? For example, all 370 people who tested positive at this Missouri pork plant were asymptomatic. If it’s not spreading asymptomatically, how did they get infected?
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h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--The evidence that there was community spread much earlier than originally thought is starting to loo

The evidence that there was community spread much earlier than originally thought is starting to look quite strong:

After Retesting Samples , French Hospital Discovers COVID-19 Case From December .
“ He was amazed , he didn ’ t understand how he had been infected .
We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips .
The only contact that he had was with his wife.
” Changing the coronavirus timeline , the state ’ s COVID-19 response team confirms to 13 Action News there are earlier cases than the first one reported in Nevada .
That official first case is in March , but 13 Chief Investigator Darcy Spears reported this week , some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early as December .
Within just two days of our story airing , the Nevada Health Response team confirmed what the people we spoke to suspected .
That they got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January , and the illness was COVID-19 .
Many of those people attended conventions and thought those events were super-spreaders .
From Texas to Washington to Colorado , visitors to Las Vegas say they came here for conventions like the Consumer Electronics Show and left sick .
Sicker than they ’ ve ever been .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ official word of an attendee being exposed , Nevada officials are now indicating coronavirus was likely here at that time or even before – a key new distinction .

After Retesting Samples, French Hospital Discovers COVID-19 Case From December. “He was amazed, he didn’t understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.”
UPDATE: Earlier coronavirus cases confirmed in Nevada after 13 investigation.
Changing the coronavirus timeline, the state’s COVID-19 response team confirms to 13 Action News there are earlier cases than the first one reported in Nevada.
That official first case is in March, but 13 Chief Investigator Darcy Spears reported this week, some people are convinced they had it as early as December.
Within just two days of our story airing, the Nevada Health Response team confirmed what the people we spoke to suspected. That they got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January, and the illness was COVID-19.
Many of those people attended conventions and thought those events were super-spreaders.
From Texas to Washington to Colorado, visitors to Las Vegas say they came here for conventions like the Consumer Electronics Show and left sick. Sicker than they’ve ever been.
Although CES hasn’t heard any official word of an attendee being exposed, Nevada officials are now indicating coronavirus was likely here at that time or even before – a key new distinction.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--WV Governor Drops F Bomb on Live TV During Briefing

The most nonchalant F bomb I ’ ve ever heard , lol

The most nonchalant F bomb I’ve ever heard, lol
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--UPDATE: MODEL SHOWS 134,000 DEATHS BY AUGUST

• The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released new projections Monday forecasting 134,000 virus deaths by August , nearly double its previous prediction • Officials said projection is high due to changing social distance policies as states start to reopen • Also on Monday a Trump administration model projected coronavirus daily death toll to reach 3,000 by June 1 • That number is nearly double the current level of 1,750 deaths a day • ‘ This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force , ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ projections • Prediction a troubling sign of what could happen when US fully reopens as 24 states begin partial reopening • Trump has pushed for the economy to get going again but admitted Sunday death toll could reach 100,000 President Donald Trump has dismissed the leaked secret FEMA charts that warn the daily virus death toll will hit 3,000 by June as ‘ false ’ and ‘ fake news ’ , even though another key COVID-19 model has nearly doubled its fatality projection to over 134,000 .
On Monday two staggering coronavirus projections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency that said the daily death toll of COVID-19 will reach 3,000 cases daily on June 1 .
That number is nearly double the current level of 1,750 deaths a day from the disease .
When asked about the leaked projection , Trump said : ‘ I know nothing about it .
I don ’ t know anything about it .
Nobody told me that.
’ ‘ I think it ’ s – I think it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s fake news , ’ he said in an Oval Office interview with the New York Post , denying the leak but not the numbers themselves .
The White House has said that leaked projection had not been ‘ presented to the coronavirus task force or gone through interagency vetting.
’ Also on Monday The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington ( IHME ) , which is often cited by the White House , released new models that forecast a death toll prediction of 134,475 fatalities by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its previous prediction of 72,433 deaths .
Today there are over 69,000 deaths from the virus and over one million cases of COVID-19 across the country .

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released new projections Monday forecasting 134,000 virus deaths by August, nearly double its previous prediction
Officials said projection is high due to changing social distance policies as states start to reopen
Also on Monday a Trump administration model projected coronavirus daily death toll to reach 3,000 by June 1
That number is nearly double the current level of 1,750 deaths a day
‘This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force,’ White House said in response to the projections
Prediction a troubling sign of what could happen when US fully reopens as 24 states begin partial reopening
Trump has pushed for the economy to get going again but admitted Sunday death toll could reach 100,000
President Donald Trump has dismissed the leaked secret FEMA charts that warn the daily virus death toll will hit 3,000 by June as ‘false’ and ‘fake news’, even though another key COVID-19 model has nearly doubled its fatality projection to over 134,000.
On Monday two staggering coronavirus projections were released including a private model by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency that said the daily death toll of COVID-19 will reach 3,000 cases daily on June 1.
That number is nearly double the current level of 1,750 deaths a day from the disease.
When asked about the leaked projection, Trump said: ‘I know nothing about it. I don’t know anything about it. Nobody told me that.’
‘I think it’s – I think it’s false, I think it’s fake news,’ he said in an Oval Office interview with the New York Post, denying the leak but not the numbers themselves.
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The White House has said that leaked projection had not been ‘presented to the coronavirus task force or gone through interagency vetting.’
Also on Monday The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME), which is often cited by the White House, released new models that forecast a death toll prediction of 134,475 fatalities by August 4, a major jump from its previous prediction of 72,433 deaths.
Today there are over 69,000 deaths from the virus and over one million cases of COVID-19 across the country.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8285675/Secret-FEMA-charts-warn-U-S-death-toll-hit-3-000-DAY-June.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--AUSTRALIA 60 Minutes, the cost of unemployment during the COVID-19 crisis.

Broke and broken : the cost of unemployment during the COVID-19 crisis | 60 Minutes Australia May 5 , 2020

Broke and broken: the cost of unemployment during the COVID-19 crisis | 60 Minutes Australia
May 5, 2020
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--The Maintream media is preparing us for the new normal. “immunity passports”.

Do they want to turn the world into a prison planet ?

Do they want to turn the world into a prison planet?
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CP


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--“Follow The Money” Because Here Comes the Mandatory Coronavirus Vaccine

Ben Swann breaks down how Fauci and others are covertly manipulating the flow of information in order to push a @ @ @ @

Ben Swann breaks down how Fauci and others are covertly manipulating the flow of information in order to push a mandatory vaccine agenda.
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h/t insignificante


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--Experts Worried That Air Conditioning Can Spread Coronavirus

Easing restrictions means that more people will be in places that use HVAC systems to circulate and/or cool the air .
Looks like we may need to be careful about how that happens .
Research indicates that air conditioning may circulate infectious droplets containing coronavirus .
Researchers in China found air-conditioning blew droplets around a restaurant , infecting 10 people .
Federal officials are exploring the role of the upcoming summer season on the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States , debating experts ’ arguments that humidity , temperatures , and direct sunshine won ’ t have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 .
But a new piece of evidence published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases , shared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , suggests that a more pressing concern might be the role that air conditioners will play in keeping communities safe throughout the warmer months .
The newly published study found that nine people were infected with COVID-19 simply by sitting near an air-conditioning vent in a restaurant in Wuhan , China , where the coronavirus was first identified .
The study examined how one asymptomatic diner managed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ droplets were circulated by the air conditioning system .
The person in question sat at a table that was located in front of an AC unit .
Four people at the person ’ s table later tested positive for COVID-19 , as well as five people at neighboring tables .
John Lednicky , PhD , a microbiology and virology research specialist within the University of Florida ‘ s College of Public Health and Health Professions , has identified different kinds of potential air-borne exposures related to COVID-19 by actually pulling the virus out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many people can produce larger sized droplets , which tend to fall near the person , or medium-sized droplets that can fall a little further , up to six feet away , ” Lednicky explains , stressing the importance of maintaining a six-foot berth around other people .
“ But there are also very small particles that can stay adrift in the air , causing inhalation exposure to aerosols… That ’ s exactly what happened in this restaurant.
” The study also shared that “ strong airflow from the air conditioner could have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the immediate dining space .

by The50centTourist
Easing restrictions means that more people will be in places that use HVAC systems to circulate and/or cool the air. Looks like we may need to be careful about how that happens.
Research indicates that air conditioning may circulate infectious droplets containing coronavirus. Researchers in China found air-conditioning blew droplets around a restaurant, infecting 10 people.
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article#comment
Federal officials are exploring the role of the upcoming summer season on the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States, debating experts’ arguments that humidity, temperatures, and direct sunshine won’t have a direct impact on the virality of COVID-19. But a new piece of evidence published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, shared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, suggests that a more pressing concern might be the role that air conditioners will play in keeping communities safe throughout the warmer months.
The newly published study found that nine people were infected with COVID-19 simply by sitting near an air-conditioning vent in a restaurant in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus was first identified. The study examined how one asymptomatic diner managed to impact diners around their vicinity as infectious droplets were circulated by the air conditioning system. The person in question sat at a table that was located in front of an AC unit. Four people at the person’s table later tested positive for COVID-19, as well as five people at neighboring tables.
John Lednicky, PhD, a microbiology and virology research specialist within the University of Florida‘s College of Public Health and Health Professions, has identified different kinds of potential air-borne exposures related to COVID-19 by actually pulling the virus out of the air. “Normally, many people can produce larger sized droplets, which tend to fall near the person, or medium-sized droplets that can fall a little further, up to six feet away,” Lednicky explains, stressing the importance of maintaining a six-foot berth around other people. “But there are also very small particles that can stay adrift in the air, causing inhalation exposure to aerosols… That’s exactly what happened in this restaurant.” The study also shared that “strong airflow from the air conditioner could have propagated droplets” from table to table in the immediate dining space.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--CDC: “Available data indicate that shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in upper respiratory specimens decline

CDC: “Available data indicate that shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in upper respiratory specimens declines after onset of symptoms. At 10 days after illness onset, recovery of replication-competent virus in viral culture (as a proxy of the presence of infectious virus) is decreased and approaches zero.”

In the context of community transmission where continued testing is impractical , available evidence at this time indicates that an interim strategy based on time-since-illness-onset and time-since-recovery can be implemented to establish the end of isolation .
Practical application of a symptom-based strategy can not prevent all infections .
At this time , data are limited regarding how long persons shed infectious SARV-CoV-2 RNA after infection .
Key findings are summarized here .
• Viral burden measured in upper respiratory specimens declines after onset of illness ( CDC unpublished data , Midgely 2020 , Young 2020 , Zou 2020 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time , replication-competent virus has not been successfully cultured more than 9 days after onset of illness .
The statistically estimated likelihood of recovering replication-competent virus approaches zero by 10 days ( CDC unpublished data , Wölfel 2020 , Arons 2020 ) .
• As the likelihood of isolating replication-competent virus decreases , anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG can be detected in an increasing number of persons recovering from infection ( Wölfel 2020 ) .
• Attempts to culture virus from upper respiratory specimens have been largely unsuccessful when viral burden is in low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ values higher than 33-35 [ 1 ] ) ( CDC unpublished data ) .
• Following recovery from clinical illness , many patients no longer have detectable viral RNA in upper respiratory specimens .
Among those who continue to have detectable RNA , concentrations of detectable RNA 3 days following recovery are generally in the range at which replication-competent virus has not been reliably isolated by CDC ( CDC unpublished data , Young 2020 ) .
• No clear correlation has been described between length of illness and duration of post-recovery shedding of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( CDC unpublished data , Midgely 2020 , Wölfel 2020 ) .
• Infectious virus has not been cultured from urine or reliably cultured from feces ( CDC unpublished data , Midgely 2020 , Wölfel 2020 ) ; these potential sources pose minimal if any risk of transmitting infection and any risk can be sufficiently mitigated by good hand hygiene .
For an emerging pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 , the patterns and duration of illness and infectivity have not been fully described .
However , available data indicate that shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ symptoms .
At 10 days after illness onset , recovery of replication-competent virus in viral culture ( as a proxy of the presence of infectious virus ) is decreased and approaches zero .
Although persons may produce PCR-positive specimens for up to 6 weeks ( Xiao , 2020 ) , it remains unknown whether these PCR-positive samples represent the presence of infectious virus .
After clinical recovery , many patients do not continue to shed SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA .
Among recovered patients with detectable RNA in upper respiratory specimens , concentrations of RNA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where virus has not been reliably cultured by CDC .
These data have been generated from adults across a variety of age groups and with varying severity of illness .
Data from children and infants are not presently available .
COVID-19 may be most contagious one to two days before symptoms appear More than 4 in 10 coronavirus cases are spread by those not obviously sick , a study suggests

In the context of community transmission where continued testing is impractical, available evidence at this time indicates that an interim strategy based on time-since-illness-onset and time-since-recovery can be implemented to establish the end of isolation. Practical application of a symptom-based strategy cannot prevent all infections.
At this time, data are limited regarding how long persons shed infectious SARV-CoV-2 RNA after infection. Key findings are summarized here.
Viral burden measured in upper respiratory specimens declines after onset of illness (CDC unpublished data, Midgely 2020, Young 2020, Zou 2020, Wölfel 2020). At this time, replication-competent virus has not been successfully cultured more than 9 days after onset of illness. The statistically estimated likelihood of recovering replication-competent virus approaches zero by 10 days (CDC unpublished data, Wölfel 2020, Arons 2020). As the likelihood of isolating replication-competent virus decreases, anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG can be detected in an increasing number of persons recovering from infection (Wölfel 2020). Attempts to culture virus from upper respiratory specimens have been largely unsuccessful when viral burden is in low but detectable ranges (i.e., Ct values higher than 33-35[1])(CDC unpublished data). Following recovery from clinical illness, many patients no longer have detectable viral RNA in upper respiratory specimens. Among those who continue to have detectable RNA, concentrations of detectable RNA 3 days following recovery are generally in the range at which replication-competent virus has not been reliably isolated by CDC (CDC unpublished data, Young 2020). No clear correlation has been described between length of illness and duration of post-recovery shedding of detectable viral RNA in upper respiratory specimens (CDC unpublished data, Midgely 2020, Wölfel 2020). Infectious virus has not been cultured from urine or reliably cultured from feces (CDC unpublished data, Midgely 2020, Wölfel 2020); these potential sources pose minimal if any risk of transmitting infection and any risk can be sufficiently mitigated by good hand hygiene.
For an emerging pathogen like SARS-CoV-2, the patterns and duration of illness and infectivity have not been fully described. However, available data indicate that shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in upper respiratory specimens declines after onset of symptoms. At 10 days after illness onset, recovery of replication-competent virus in viral culture (as a proxy of the presence of infectious virus) is decreased and approaches zero. Although persons may produce PCR-positive specimens for up to 6 weeks (Xiao, 2020), it remains unknown whether these PCR-positive samples represent the presence of infectious virus. After clinical recovery, many patients do not continue to shed SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA. Among recovered patients with detectable RNA in upper respiratory specimens, concentrations of RNA after 3 days are generally in ranges where virus has not been reliably cultured by CDC. These data have been generated from adults across a variety of age groups and with varying severity of illness. Data from children and infants are not presently available.
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www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/strategy-discontinue-isolation.html?deliveryName=USCDC_2067-DM27395
COVID-19 may be most contagious one to two days before symptoms appear
More than 4 in 10 coronavirus cases are spread by those not obviously sick, a study suggests
www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-infection-contagious-days-before-symptoms-appear


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-05--“I believe that Joe Biden raped you but I’m going to keep supporting your rapist and I want him to b

“I believe that Joe Biden raped you but I’m going to keep supporting your rapist and I want him to be president” – Lisa Bloom

She ’ s getting destroyed in the comments lol

by Facts-Over-Opinion
twitter.com/LisaBloom/status/1256327017911382018
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She’s getting destroyed in the comments lol