investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Horror Of America’s New Breadlines! Retailers Prepare For Civil Unrest & Economic Collapse

The whole world is going through very difficult economic times .
Supply chains are being disrupted and the global economic collapse spreading all around the world .
The United States has the largest economy in the world but also it has not been spared by this global economic meltdown .
The US economy has also been shut down at this moment we are at the verge of a total economic collapse .
If the US economy remains shut for the next 2-3 months , we will witness a historic number of layoffs that has not been experienced for many decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is difficult to believe .
It is just last week when the department of labor announced that more than 3.3 million Americans had already lost their jobs and they were filing for unemployment benefits across various states .
This is more than four times compared to the last all time unemployment claims .
Things are getting worse every passing day and this week experts are warning that the number of unemployed people will continue surging as more companies and businesses shut down their operations .
This will be the most challenging time for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unemployment was lastly seen during the great depression back in the 1930s .
We might wake up one day only to realize that 30-50 million Americans have already lost their jobs .
This sounds crazy but the Federal Reserve has already warned that up to 32 percent of Americans might lose their jobs .
If this happens the great depression will look like nothing .
The economy of the United States is already at the tipping point and this is just the beginning of the economic collapse .
We have the worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the society and it might be a matter of days before most Americans find it almost impossible for them to place food on the table .
More than 40 percent of the American populations do not have enough savings to support themselves for even 2 months if they lose their jobs today .
Most people live pay check to paycheck and this will make it almost impossible for most people to survive the next 2-3 months if the economy does not open up .
This time round everyone in America will have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country everyone is fearing that this economic crisis will spring up social unrest .
Actually some of the high end stores across the country have been boarding up their stores as they fear social unrest .
This has already begun happening in other countries like Italy where people are taking advantage of this crisis to steal whatever they can lay their hands on .
In a few weeks a lot is coming to America and this will be a historic economic and social meltdown .
The 2008 global financial crisis will look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening in our society .
People are panicking and everyone is buying as much as they can from the food stores .
Food banks all over the nation are overwhelmed with an ever increasing demand and people have to wait for hours to pick up food .
As people run out of money- food shortage will be a real thing in the US .
Many household in America were unprepared for this level of social and economic disruption and the middle class workers are the ones who will be hit most .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the banking sector in the US is also in a big trouble .
Many banks were overleveraged by issuing credit beyond their limit .
Because of this economic downturn , most of the creditors will default and this will leave most banks at the verge of collapsing .
Very soon credit lines are going to freeze and the whole economy will be brought to an abrupt halt .
The financial markets are also in a free fall and the stock market has already fallen by more than 30 percent and in the process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their investment .
It is really painful for the American people but there is no way we can avoid this .
Unless the health problem is solved , it will be difficult to open up the economy .
The government should focus on solving this health problem that is crippling the economy .
At the same time we have to acknowledge that we have a system that is unsustainable in the long run .
This crisis is differentiating the fake from the real and this is the time when we should acknowledge that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system that will serve the American people even when there is an economic collapse .

The whole world is going through very difficult economic times. Supply chains are being disrupted and the global economic collapse spreading all around the world. The United States has the largest economy in the world but also it has not been spared by this global economic meltdown. The US economy has also been shut down at this moment we are at the verge of a total economic collapse.
If the US economy remains shut for the next 2-3 months, we will witness a historic number of layoffs that has not been experienced for many decades. What has already happened so far is difficult to believe. It is just last week when the department of labor announced that more than 3.3 million Americans had already lost their jobs and they were filing for unemployment benefits across various states. This is more than four times compared to the last all time unemployment claims. Things are getting worse every passing day and this week experts are warning that the number of unemployed people will continue surging as more companies and businesses shut down their operations. This will be the most challenging time for the United States economically because this level of unemployment was lastly seen during the great depression back in the 1930s. We might wake up one day only to realize that 30-50 million Americans have already lost their jobs. This sounds crazy but the Federal Reserve has already warned that up to 32 percent of Americans might lose their jobs. If this happens the great depression will look like nothing. The economy of the United States is already at the tipping point and this is just the beginning of the economic collapse.
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We have the worst economic meltdown and a lot is changing in the society and it might be a matter of days before most Americans find it almost impossible for them to place food on the table. More than 40 percent of the American populations do not have enough savings to support themselves for even 2 months if they lose their jobs today. Most people live pay check to paycheck and this will make it almost impossible for most people to survive the next 2-3 months if the economy does not open up. This time round everyone in America will have to be bailed out.
All across the country everyone is fearing that this economic crisis will spring up social unrest. Actually some of the high end stores across the country have been boarding up their stores as they fear social unrest. This has already begun happening in other countries like Italy where people are taking advantage of this crisis to steal whatever they can lay their hands on. In a few weeks a lot is coming to America and this will be a historic economic and social meltdown. The 2008 global financial crisis will look like nothing when compared to what is happening in our society.
People are panicking and everyone is buying as much as they can from the food stores. Food banks all over the nation are overwhelmed with an ever increasing demand and people have to wait for hours to pick up food. As people run out of money- food shortage will be a real thing in the US. Many household in America were unprepared for this level of social and economic disruption and the middle class workers are the ones who will be hit most.
In the middle of this economic turbulence, the banking sector in the US is also in a big trouble. Many banks were overleveraged by issuing credit beyond their limit. Because of this economic downturn, most of the creditors will default and this will leave most banks at the verge of collapsing. Very soon credit lines are going to freeze and the whole economy will be brought to an abrupt halt. The financial markets are also in a free fall and the stock market has already fallen by more than 30 percent and in the process Americans have lost a big chunk of their investment.
It is really painful for the American people but there is no way we can avoid this. Unless the health problem is solved, it will be difficult to open up the economy. The government should focus on solving this health problem that is crippling the economy. At the same time we have to acknowledge that we have a system that is unsustainable in the long run. This crisis is differentiating the fake from the real and this is the time when we should acknowledge that there is a need for a better system that will serve the American people even when there is an economic collapse.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Leaked Intel Report CONFIRMS China Is Lying About COVID Numbers, China Is Exploiting The Crisis

Leaked Intel Report CONFIRMS China Is Lying About COVID Numbers , China Is Exploiting The Crisis .
Several intel officials @ @ @ @ @ has been under reporting the number of infected to downplay the crisis .
China has @ @ @ @ @ to exploit the situation for economic gain .
When the outbreak first began they started @ @ @ @ @ while downplaying the severity .
They have since been supplying faulty numbers resulting in slow @ @ @ @ @ Now a new report from the FBI shows Chinese scientists caught illicitly transporting vials with @ @ @ @ @ In the end we must take what China has done seriously .
Republicans , Democrats @ @ @ @ @ together in a way to help the American people and prevent this from happening in @ @

Leaked Intel Report CONFIRMS China Is Lying About COVID Numbers, China Is Exploiting The Crisis. Several intel officials have privately confirmed that China has been under reporting the number of infected to downplay the crisis.
China has been lying in an effort to exploit the situation for economic gain. When the outbreak first began they started hoarding supplies from other countries while downplaying the severity. They have since been supplying faulty numbers resulting in slow responses to the pandemic.
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Now a new report from the FBI shows Chinese scientists caught illicitly transporting vials with the virus in it.
In the end we must take what China has done seriously. Republicans, Democrats and Trump should absolutely come together in a way to help the American people and prevent this from happening in the future


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Joy Behar Tries and FAILS to Make ‘The View’ Guest to Say SICK Things About Trump

Virigina Kruta from The Daily Caller reports , Joy Behar tried to get ABC reporter Jonathan Karl to say that @ @ @ @ @ mental disorder .
Karl appeared Monday on ABC ’ s “ The View ” to @ @ @ @ @ “ Front Row at the Trump Show , ” and his view of the Trump @ @ @ @ @ the CV crisis .

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIwG1zBvTyw
Virigina Kruta from The Daily Caller reports, Joy Behar tried to get ABC reporter Jonathan Karl to say that President Donald Trump had a mental disorder. Karl appeared Monday on ABC’s “The View” to discuss his new book, “Front Row at the Trump Show,” and his view of the Trump administration’s handling of the CV crisis.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
dailycaller.com/2020/03/30/jo…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--The Unintended Consequences of Doing Good

The Federal Reserve is buying mortgage-backed securities with the best of intentions .
But there are unintended consequences .
Last week , I had a truly horrifying phone call with good friend and real estate expert , Barry Habib .
He knows the mortgage business inside and out and he ’ s very concerned right now .
Briefly , the Federal Reserve and other bank regulators have relaxed some rules so lenders can be more patient with people who fall behind on their loan payments .
It ’ s called “ forbearance.
” I think we all agree that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem is , they didn ’ t grant forbearance to mortgage servicers .
That is , the companies who collect payments , handle tax escrows , etc .
They also take risk as mortgages wind through the system from origination to the investors who actually own them .
The servicer must make payments to Fannie Mae , Freddie Mac , and especially Ginnie Mae even if the mortgage is delinquent .
Normally the risk is small .
Suddenly it is not .
Mortgage service providers are the fan belt of the economic engine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( or , it was when I was a kid and installed them myself ) , but the entire engine freezes up if it breaks .
The mortgage belt has snapped , and we are weeks away from the entire housing engine collapsing .
Late last week , we learned that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is aware of this “ minor issue ” and is trying to decide what to do .
He needs to decide quickly .

By John Mauldin
The Federal Reserve is buying mortgage-backed securities with the best of intentions. But there are unintended consequences.
Last week, I had a truly horrifying phone call with good friend and real estate expert, Barry Habib. He knows the mortgage business inside and out and he’s very concerned right now.
Briefly, the Federal Reserve and other bank regulators have relaxed some rules so lenders can be more patient with people who fall behind on their loan payments. It’s called “forbearance.” I think we all agree that’s necessary under the circumstances.
The problem is, they didn’t grant forbearance to mortgage servicers. That is, the companies who collect payments, handle tax escrows, etc. They also take risk as mortgages wind through the system from origination to the investors who actually own them.
The servicer must make payments to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and especially Ginnie Mae even if the mortgage is delinquent.
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Normally the risk is small. Suddenly it is not.
Mortgage service providers are the fan belt of the economic engine. It is a $3 part (or, it was when I was a kid and installed them myself), but the entire engine freezes up if it breaks.
The mortgage belt has snapped, and we are weeks away from the entire housing engine collapsing.
Late last week, we learned that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is aware of this “minor issue” and is trying to decide what to do.
He needs to decide quickly.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Why A 15 Million Barrel Per Day Cut Will Never Happen

Oil prices exploded on Thursday morning after US President Trump tweeted that he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about a potentially ‘ huge ’ output cut .
According to Trump , the production cut from Saudi Arabia and Russia could be as high as 15 million bpd .
The reality , however , is very different .
Earlier this morning , Dmitry Peskov , spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that ‘ ’ No one has launched any talks about a potential new oil-production deal to replace the OPEC+ format ’ ’ Peskov assured reporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil prices , but there are no high-level talks scheduled for either Thursday or Friday .
It seems then that US pressure on Riyadh has convinced Saudi Arabia to reopen negotiations once again , but as I wrote before , neither of the parties will be willing to hand an easy victory to the others .
While both Russia and Saudi Arabia have started to hint that they are willing to talk about new cooperation , neither of them have proposed any specific new deal .
The situation changed this morning after Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Kingdom is calling for an urgent OPEC+ meeting with the aim of ‘ ’ seeking a fair agreement ’ ’ .
In other words , Saudi Arabia is willing to return to the negotiating table if every other nation is willing to cut production .
According to Dow Jones , Riyadh is willing to reduce output to 9 million bpd , roughly what it produced in February before the OPEC+ deal fell apart .
It also seems that the Kingdom will only be happy to cut production back to 9 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bpd production reduction it rejected at the previous OPEC+ meeting in Vienna .
Even if Saudi Arabia gets Russia to agree to the 500,000 bpd cut ( which remains unlikely ) , this means that the markets will see a production reduction of only 3.5 million bpd – a far cry from the 10-15 million bpd that President Trump claimed in his tweet this morning .
Even if Saudi Arabia gets the UAE , Iraq and other non-OPEC members such as Brazil , Canada , Kazakhstan , Norway , Mexico , and Azerbaijan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will still not be enough to counter the coronavirus impact on the markets in the short term .
All of this seems highly unlikely unless US producers will agree to force production cuts upon themselves ( like Canadian producers did last year ) , something that US President Trump did not mention in his tweet .
Some smaller and larger US producers are happy to voluntarily cut back production , but oil majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron have shown no interest in reducing production .
Industry organizations such as the API and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts .
With global oil demand potentially crashing 30 million bpd in April/May , every producer is feeling the pain , but even a multilateral output cut that would involve all G20 producers isn ’ t likely to keep inventories from ballooning and prices from falling .
The oil rally caused by Trump ’ s tweet is likely to fade .

By Tom Kool
Oil prices exploded on Thursday morning after US President Trump tweeted that he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about a potentially ‘huge’ output cut.
According to Trump, the production cut from Saudi Arabia and Russia could be as high as 15 million bpd.
For anyone wondering why oil prices just spiked by over 25%… t.co/xjkfxOAaoS — OilPrice.com (@OilandEnergy) April 2, 2020
The reality, however, is very different.
Earlier this morning, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that ‘’No one has launched any talks about a potential new oil-production deal to replace the OPEC+ format’’
Peskov assured reporters that no one is happy with current oil prices, but there are no high-level talks scheduled for either Thursday or Friday.
It seems then that US pressure on Riyadh has convinced Saudi Arabia to reopen negotiations once again, but as I wrote before, neither of the parties will be willing to hand an easy victory to the others.
While both Russia and Saudi Arabia have started to hint that they are willing to talk about new cooperation, neither of them have proposed any specific new deal.
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The situation changed this morning after Saudi Arabia’s official news agency reported that the Kingdom is calling for an urgent OPEC+ meeting with the aim of ‘’seeking a fair agreement’’. In other words, Saudi Arabia is willing to return to the negotiating table if every other nation is willing to cut production.
According to Dow Jones, Riyadh is willing to reduce output to 9 million bpd, roughly what it produced in February before the OPEC+ deal fell apart. It also seems that the Kingdom will only be happy to cut production back to 9 million bpd if Moscow agrees with the 500,000 bpd production reduction it rejected at the previous OPEC+ meeting in Vienna.
Even if Saudi Arabia gets Russia to agree to the 500,000 bpd cut (which remains unlikely), this means that the markets will see a production reduction of only 3.5 million bpd – a far cry from the 10-15 million bpd that President Trump claimed in his tweet this morning.
Even if Saudi Arabia gets the UAE, Iraq and other non-OPEC members such as Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, Mexico, and Azerbaijan to make additional output cuts, this will still not be enough to counter the coronavirus impact on the markets in the short term. All of this seems highly unlikely unless US producers will agree to force production cuts upon themselves (like Canadian producers did last year), something that US President Trump did not mention in his tweet.
Some smaller and larger US producers are happy to voluntarily cut back production, but oil majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron have shown no interest in reducing production. Industry organizations such as the API and TXOGA also remain opposed to forced output cuts.
With global oil demand potentially crashing 30 million bpd in April/May, every producer is feeling the pain, but even a multilateral output cut that would involve all G20 producers isn’t likely to keep inventories from ballooning and prices from falling.
The oil rally caused by Trump’s tweet is likely to fade.
By Tom Kool of Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Federal Budget Deficits: To $30T and Beyond

In my decade forecast , I projected that in the next recession that the deficit would climb to over $ 2 trillion .
Clearly , that demonstrates I am an optimist .
Here ’ s a chart I shared back in January .
Between reduced tax revenues and increased spending , I now expect this year ’ s deficit will be at least $ 4 trillion .
I will bet you a dollar to 40 doughnuts that we will see at least another $ 1 trillion emergency spending bill to be spent in the third quarter .
My logic is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used to calculate the GDP : GDP = C + I + G + ( X – M ) or GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment + government spending + ( exports – imports ) .
This transforms the money-value measure , nominal GDP , into an index for quantity of total output .
I wrote recently about the long-ago political decision to include government spending in the GDP numbers .
U.S. GDP is roughly $ 20 trillion a year ( using numbers that are easy to divide ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter .
If the economy falls 20 % in the third quarter ( not a prediction , but work with me ) adding an additional $ 1 trillion worth of government spending will restore the GDP equation .
The first estimate of that number will come out in late October , shortly before the Nov. 3 election .
Both parties in Congress will want to see it positive .
Care to bet we don ’ t see another stimulus package ?
We could have 2020 and 2021 deficits of a combined $ 6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we should see $ 30 trillion total national debt by the end of 2021 .
I naïvely projected total national debt to be $ 39 trillion by 2030 .
See , I keep telling you I ’ m an optimist .
We will be in that $ 40 trillion range somewhere around 2026- ‘ 27 .
We are experiencing a practice round for The Great Reset .
Sometime late this year or early next , we need to look at what happened and then think what it will look like in the late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all converge to give us a true Fourth Turning generational crisis , part of which will be The Great Reset .

By John Mauldin
In my decade forecast, I projected that in the next recession that the deficit would climb to over $2 trillion. Clearly, that demonstrates I am an optimist. Here’s a chart I shared back in January.
Between reduced tax revenues and increased spending, I now expect this year’s deficit will be at least $4 trillion.
I will bet you a dollar to 40 doughnuts that we will see at least another $1 trillion emergency spending bill to be spent in the third quarter. My logic is as follows.
The following equation is used to calculate the GDP: GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) or GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports).
This transforms the money-value measure, nominal GDP, into an index for quantity of total output.
I wrote recently about the long-ago political decision to include government spending in the GDP numbers. U.S. GDP is roughly $20 trillion a year (using numbers that are easy to divide). That means $5 trillion per quarter.
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If the economy falls 20% in the third quarter (not a prediction, but work with me) adding an additional $1 trillion worth of government spending will restore the GDP equation.
The first estimate of that number will come out in late October, shortly before the Nov. 3 election. Both parties in Congress will want to see it positive. Care to bet we don’t see another stimulus package?
We could have 2020 and 2021 deficits of a combined $6 trillion-plus. Add off-budget spending, and we should see $30 trillion total national debt by the end of 2021.
I naïvely projected total national debt to be $39 trillion by 2030. See, I keep telling you I’m an optimist.
We will be in that $40 trillion range somewhere around 2026-‘27.
We are experiencing a practice round for The Great Reset. Sometime late this year or early next, we need to look at what happened and then think what it will look like in the late 2020s.
A number of factors will all converge to give us a true Fourth Turning generational crisis, part of which will be The Great Reset.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--The spectre of mass unemployment is starting to haunt us

Today ’ s topic is one that I hoped never to have to write .
If we look back to the last century then mass unemployment scarred the economic landscape on several occasions and particularly so in the Great Depression .
The credit crunch era initially brought higher unemployment but fortunately we managed to reduce that over time .
Indeed from around 2013 we saw considerable improvements on that front in mnay countries .
The leader of the pack in this regard has been Japan where the unemployment rate has fallen as low as 2.2 % .
The UK and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment rate falling below 4 % .
More latterly the Euro area has seen unemployment fall too although its progress has been slower leading to its unemployment rate being more like 7 % That was the good news section of the labour market as employment rose and unemployment fell .
Although there always was the issue of under employment as a cloud in the sky as we wondered what jobs were being taken and how employment is defined ?
The waters also had something of a shark in them as the strong quantity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real wage growth something my country the UK has been particularly affected by .
Especially troubling is the way the establishment has responded which is to impose poorer measures of inflation ( the Imputed Rent driven CPIH ) to flatter the figures and mislead the unwary .
Along the way the economic Ivory Towers had plenty of troubles too as the unemployment rate fell below their definitions of “ full employment ” and made their “ output gap ” theories crumble .
I am sure many of you still remember when Governor Carney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7 % unemployment rate as significant before exhibiting the sort of behaviour that led to him being called the “ Unreliable Boyfriend ” Last week this provided something of a forerunner of what we can now expect.As Politico points out below even that shock may have been an understatement .
Last week ’ s headline number of 3.28 million claims — itself a more than 1,000 percent increase — is also expected to be revised upward , in part because of stark discrepancies between data that states reported at the ground level and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida ’ s initial claims hit a record for the week ended March 21 , and then tripled to 222,054 for the week ended March 28 , according to the state Department of Economic Opportunity.Florida ’ s initial claims hit a record for the week ended March 21 , and then tripled to 222,054 for the week ended March 28 , according to the state Department of Economic Opportunity…..Florida ’ s initial claims hit a record for the week ended March 21 , and then tripled to 222,054 for the week ended March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Economic Opportunity .
So as you can see the situation in the United States looks as though it may be even worse than we feared even last week .
The old saying that a week is a long time in politics is being outdone by economics at the moment .
Yesterday brought a moment to the UK which we had feared was about to arrive .
Nearly a million people have successfully applied for universal credit in the last fortnight , in a rush to welfare support that reveals the depth of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s lockdown .
Despite the government ’ s job support schemes offering 80 % of earnings to employees and the self-employed who can not work , 950,000 people applied for the main income support benefit between 16 and 31 March .
There are normally about 100,000 applicants for the benefit in any given two-week period .
Applications started flooding in as soon as Boris Johnson told the nation to stop non-essential contact with others and cease all unnecessary travel .
( The Guardian ) Care is needed here as these are social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measure or indeed a claimant count but we do get a very string hint from the data here.Out of it there is at least a small positive .
The numbers above compare to a situation only a couple of weeks ago when we were told this by our official statisticians .
Sadly we seem set to go through 2 million fairly quickly and maybe 3 million .
However the numbers will need some interpreting because it looks as though those who are “ furloughed ” will continue to be counted as in employment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better if a new category was created .
Let me welcome the effort by the Office of National Statistics to produce some new data although sadly even the new weekly measures are of course now well behind the times .
This mornings news from Spain was grim too .
The recent better phase of economic growth for Spain had played its part in bringing unemployment down from a bit over 5 million to just over 3 million last summer .
But sadly the mood music had changed and is now dark .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1920s and 30s .
I fear for the unemployment numbers that will come from Italy which had its own economic problems ( the essentially 0 % economic growth of our “ Good Italy : Bad Italy ” theme ) before the pandemic started .
Some yesterday were promoting this as good news .
Sadly they did not seem to have read this bit .
Italy and many other countries are about to see a tsunami of unemployment and our best hope is that it will be brief .
Meanwhile maybe attitudes will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up at a residential care home where a worker was assisting an elderly lady on her balcony .
As she had no protective clothing I could see she put herself at risk .
I was thinking of that as I read this from Sarah O ’ Connor in the Financial Times .
Let me say welcome back from maternity leave to Sarah who is easily the FT ’ s best journalist .

by Shaun Richards
Today’s topic is one that I hoped never to have to write. If we look back to the last century then mass unemployment scarred the economic landscape on several occasions and particularly so in the Great Depression. The credit crunch era initially brought higher unemployment but fortunately we managed to reduce that over time. Indeed from around 2013 we saw considerable improvements on that front in mnay countries. The leader of the pack in this regard has been Japan where the unemployment rate has fallen as low as 2.2%. The UK and US saw strong improvements too with the unemployment rate falling below 4%. More latterly the Euro area has seen unemployment fall too although its progress has been slower leading to its unemployment rate being more like 7%
That was the good news section of the labour market as employment rose and unemployment fell. Although there always was the issue of under employment as a cloud in the sky as we wondered what jobs were being taken and how employment is defined? The waters also had something of a shark in them as the strong quantity numbers were accompanied by at best weak real wage growth something my country the UK has been particularly affected by. Especially troubling is the way the establishment has responded which is to impose poorer measures of inflation ( the Imputed Rent driven CPIH ) to flatter the figures and mislead the unwary. Along the way the economic Ivory Towers had plenty of troubles too as the unemployment rate fell below their definitions of “full employment ” and made their “output gap” theories crumble. I am sure many of you still remember when Governor Carney of the Bank of England signposted a 7% unemployment rate as significant before exhibiting the sort of behaviour that led to him being called the “Unreliable Boyfriend ”
The US
Last week this provided something of a forerunner of what we can now expect.As Politico points out below even that shock may have been an understatement.
Last week’s headline number of 3.28 million claims — itself a more than 1,000 percent increase — is also expected to be revised upward, in part because of stark discrepancies between data that states reported at the ground level and what the Department of Labor recorded. Florida’s initial claims hit a record for the week ended March 21, and then tripled to 222,054 for the week ended March 28, according to the state Department of Economic Opportunity.Florida’s initial claims hit a record for the week ended March 21, and then tripled to 222,054 for the week ended March 28, according to the state Department of Economic Opportunity…..Florida’s initial claims hit a record for the week ended March 21, and then tripled to 222,054 for the week ended March 28, according to the state Department of Economic Opportunity.
So as you can see the situation in the United States looks as though it may be even worse than we feared even last week. The old saying that a week is a long time in politics is being outdone by economics at the moment.
The UK
Yesterday brought a moment to the UK which we had feared was about to arrive.
Nearly a million people have successfully applied for universal credit in the last fortnight, in a rush to welfare support that reveals the depth of the jobs crisis caused by the UK’s lockdown. Despite the government’s job support schemes offering 80% of earnings to employees and the self-employed who cannot work, 950,000 people applied for the main income support benefit between 16 and 31 March. There are normally about 100,000 applicants for the benefit in any given two-week period. Applications started flooding in as soon as Boris Johnson told the nation to stop non-essential contact with others and cease all unnecessary travel. ( The Guardian)
Care is needed here as these are social security payments rather than a labour force measure or indeed a claimant count but we do get a very string hint from the data here.Out of it there is at least a small positive.
The DWP said it had moved more than 10,000 staff to deal with claims and was recruiting more.
The numbers above compare to a situation only a couple of weeks ago when we were told this by our official statisticians.
For November 2019 to January 2020, an estimated 1.34 million people were unemployed. This is 5,000 more than a year earlier but 515,000 fewer than five years earlier. The small increase on the year is the first annual increase in unemployment since May to July 2012, and it was caused by a 20,000 increase for men.
Sadly we seem set to go through 2 million fairly quickly and maybe 3 million. However the numbers will need some interpreting because it looks as though those who are “furloughed” will continue to be counted as in employment. Personally I think it would be better if a new category was created.
Let me welcome the effort by the Office of National Statistics to produce some new data although sadly even the new weekly measures are of course now well behind the times.
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Over a quarter (27%) of responding businesses said they were reducing staff levels in the short term in the period 9 March to 22 March 2020, while 5% reported that they were recruiting staff in the short term.
Spain
This mornings news from Spain was grim too.
MADRID (Reuters) – The rise in Spanish jobless numbers in March is the highest monthly increase ever recorded, Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz said at a news conference on Thursday. The number of jobless jumped 9.3% from the previous month bringing the total number of unemployed people to around 3.5 million. That total number was still below record highs of 2013.
The recent better phase of economic growth for Spain had played its part in bringing unemployment down from a bit over 5 million to just over 3 million last summer. But sadly the mood music had changed and is now dark.
Comment
This is a grim phase with echoes of the 1920s and 30s. I fear for the unemployment numbers that will come from Italy which had its own economic problems ( the essentially 0% economic growth of our “Good Italy: Bad Italy” theme ) before the pandemic started. Some yesterday were promoting this as good news.
The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 9.7% (-0.1 percentage points) while the youth rate stayed stable to 29.6%.
Sadly they did not seem to have read this bit.
This press release is referred to February 2020, therefore it is related to the pre-COVID-19 health emergency phase.
Italy and many other countries are about to see a tsunami of unemployment and our best hope is that it will be brief.
Meanwhile maybe attitudes will change as the other day I looked up at a residential care home where a worker was assisting an elderly lady on her balcony. As she had no protective clothing I could see she put herself at risk. I was thinking of that as I read this from Sarah O’Connor in the Financial Times.
This precarious army labours around the clock. On Monday I spoke to a domiciliary care worker who visits bed-bound clients in their homes (she did not want to be named for fear of punishment by her employer). She was in the middle of a 10-hour shift, having worked 14 hours on Saturday and 14 on Sunday. “We’re all putting the effort in,” she said. She is paid £9.75 an hour at weekends and £8.75 in the week, which amounts to about £1,700 a month.
It got worse.
Unison, the union for many care staff, has been raising concerns about the lack of personal protective equipment. The care worker I spoke to had gloves but no mask; she had purchased her own hand sanitiser. Her company, which employs her on a zero-hours contract, would only pay statutory sick pay of £94.25 a week if she developed symptoms and had to self-isolate. “Before, I would have gone into work with a cold or a cough — now I’d have to stay off but then I don’t know how I would pay the bills.”
Let me say welcome back from maternity leave to Sarah who is easily the FT’s best journalist.
The Investing Channel


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--The ‘Whatever It Takes’ Decade

The ‘Whatever It Takes’ Decade

With all its recent activities , the Federal Reserve ’ s balance sheet has exploded to $ 5 trillion-plus .
My friend Peter Boockvar thinks assets could easily reach $ 10 trillion , and problems will develop when they try to wind it down .
I ’ m not so sure they will do that .
This time , they might take a page from the Great Depression playbook and simply not worry about winding it down .
Let me go one step further .
In 2012 , when Europe was caught in the quicksand of a debt crisis , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said he ’ d do “ whatever it takes ” to save the European monetary union .
But it appears the 2020s will be the decade known as the one of “ Whatever It Takes.
” Before this decade ends , the U.S. Federal Reserve ’ s balance sheet will be $ 20 trillion and probably approach $ 30 trillion .
Those are staggering numbers .
But percentage-wise , they are no more than Japan has today .
But that hasn ’ t been the case in Japan , and only slightly so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Each country will have its own characteristics when it comes to expanding its monetary base .
The uncertainty we all feel is actually a great deal of the problem .
Challenges come and go , but we are all accustomed to having data about them .
The data may be wrong or unclear , but we at least have something to focus on and debate .
Now we don ’ t .
That leaves us deeply unsettled .
The new coronavirus is what it is .
Scientists need data to evaluate its effects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ susceptible , what percentage will become seriously ill or die .
We don ’ t have good answers , so our minds fear the worst .
It ’ s not that the data doesn ’ t exist .
We ( and I mean humans collectively ) just don ’ t collect , analyze and share it very well .
And , to be fair , this is a complex problem .
People get sick and die for all kinds of reasons , and sometimes multiple reasons .
Whether to attribute them to this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now , trying to project coronavirus infection and death rates in one country using data from another country can be useful in proper context .
But trying to claim as some do ( I ’ m thinking of two Stanford professors ) that COVID-19 probably has a death rate no higher than the standard flu , based on layers of assumptions , is just not helpful .
On the flipside , we are not all going to die .
Some of the curves we see may reflect the spread of testing capacity more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now if you are New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo , who from all appearances has a handle on the crisis there ( along with many other governors ) , you have to assume the worst and plan for it .
Some governors simply have their heads in the sand , and this endangers the whole United States .
Not to mention their own states .
Some states are extending their stay-at-home orders into May .
If staying put , social distancing , washing our hands and wearing masks if we are sick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it takes ” to flatten the curve , let ’ s do it because it ’ s right … and not wait for them ask us to .

By John Mauldin
With all its recent activities, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has exploded to $5 trillion-plus. My friend Peter Boockvar thinks assets could easily reach $10 trillion, and problems will develop when they try to wind it down.
I’m not so sure they will do that. This time, they might take a page from the Great Depression playbook and simply not worry about winding it down.
Let me go one step further.
In 2012, when Europe was caught in the quicksand of a debt crisis, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi famously said he’d do “whatever it takes” to save the European monetary union.
But it appears the 2020s will be the decade known as the one of “Whatever It Takes.” Before this decade ends, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will be $20 trillion and probably approach $30 trillion.
Those are staggering numbers. But percentage-wise, they are no more than Japan has today.
(I can hear the Austrian-school economists screaming that the dollar will be worth less.)
But that hasn’t been the case in Japan, and only slightly so in Europe and for different reasons. Each country will have its own characteristics when it comes to expanding its monetary base.
The uncertainty we all feel is actually a great deal of the problem. Challenges come and go, but we are all accustomed to having data about them.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The data may be wrong or unclear, but we at least have something to focus on and debate. Now we don’t. That leaves us deeply unsettled.
The new coronavirus is what it is. Scientists need data to evaluate its effects. How it spreads, who is susceptible, what percentage will become seriously ill or die.
We don’t have good answers, so our minds fear the worst.
It’s not that the data doesn’t exist. We (and I mean humans collectively) just don’t collect, analyze and share it very well. And, to be fair, this is a complex problem. People get sick and die for all kinds of reasons, and sometimes multiple reasons. Whether to attribute them to this virus is often a judgment call.
Now, trying to project coronavirus infection and death rates in one country using data from another country can be useful in proper context. But trying to claim as some do (I’m thinking of two Stanford professors) that COVID-19 probably has a death rate no higher than the standard flu, based on layers of assumptions, is just not helpful.
On the flipside, we are not all going to die. Some of the curves we see may reflect the spread of testing capacity more than the spread of the virus.
Now if you are New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who from all appearances has a handle on the crisis there (along with many other governors), you have to assume the worst and plan for it.
Some governors simply have their heads in the sand, and this endangers the whole United States. Not to mention their own states.
Some states are extending their stay-at-home orders into May. If staying put, social distancing, washing our hands and wearing masks if we are sick is our equivalent of doing “whatever it takes” to flatten the curve, let’s do it because it’s right … and not wait for them ask us to.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine

I am writing from my home library since I ’ m no longer working in my office in downtown Myrtle Beach .
I ’ ve always resisted working from home because I don ’ t want to stress out in my own house .
But it hasn ’ t been bad .
I have a hot tub , a pool , cigars , and the cats .
Things are much worse for most other people .
The virus and the protective measures have done untold economic damage .
Some people are openly talking of a depression .
Already , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in stocks we have ever had—and it ’ s only been a little over a month .
There was a lot of leverage in the system , and price-insensitive buying , like with stock buybacks , indexing , and short volatility trades .
Now , all that leverage is being unwound .
The first 30 % -plus drop was a result of that .
Whether there ’ s any more downside is probably a question of economics .
I can tell you that , as someone who watches sentiment , this is perhaps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade in I ’ ve ever seen .
For the past few weeks , sentiment has been max bearish , the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ) at record levels , and every sentiment indicator or oscillator pegged at zero .
Yet , the market has continued lower .
Mean reversion simply has not worked .
Some people are comparing this to the crash of 1929 , and the subsequent bear market that took stocks down 89 % .
They speak with certainty .
I don ’ t have that level of certainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how anyone can .
The problem here is not economic .
The problem is cultural : Americans are not well-equipped to deal with a crisis like this .
Americans disobey .
They don ’ t follow rules .
They don ’ t follow guidance .
I had to pick up some medicine at the vet ’ s office for one of my cats the other day , and there were hundreds of cars on the road—just like any other day .
Where I live , in South Carolina , very few people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and they follow their own judgment .
There are few indications this will change , outside of tanks rolling down residential streets .
Because of our culture of disobedience , it ’ s very unlikely we will contain the spread of the virus .
Some people will observe shelter-in-place orders , and others won ’ t .
We ’ ll “ flatten the curve ” a little , but we ’ ll also lengthen the duration of the crisis , without clear resolution , which is actually the worst possible scenario .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ do some social distancing from their portfolio .
There could be more downside in stocks .
Many people went into this with a large allocation to equities .
If the market gives you a chance to rejigger your asset allocation , you should probably take it .
Things Were Risky All Along Nobody cared about safety going into this .
No one .
I was reading articles about people investing their emergency funds in growth stocks .
That kind of stuff .
For years , I was preaching safety .
Bonds and cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stuff .
And there were millions of Baby Boomers who had giant allocations to stocks .
Now they are selling—at a loss .
It ’ s amazing .
And because markets are markets , when it ’ s time for people to take on risk again , nobody will want to .
They ’ ll be interested in safe havens like bonds and cash and gold… at precisely the right moment to go into risk-on mode instead .
But that is many years away .
With stocks down a little over 30 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent bear-market rally , this is already one of the worst bears of all time .
And it happened in a blink .
For years , people have been focused on returns to the exclusion of all else—and not risk .
Suddenly , the world seems like a much riskier place than it did a month ago .
Nothing has changed but the perception—it was risky all along .
The stock market is not , and never was , a magic money machine .
The stock market has levels of volatility that make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one should depend on the stock market for their retirement .
It is unpredictable and capricious .
And the vast majority of people are psychologically unequipped to handle it .

By Jared Dillian
I am writing from my home library since I’m no longer working in my office in downtown Myrtle Beach.
I’ve always resisted working from home because I don’t want to stress out in my own house. But it hasn’t been bad. I have a hot tub, a pool, cigars, and the cats.
Things are much worse for most other people. The virus and the protective measures have done untold economic damage. Some people are openly talking of a depression.
Already, this is one of the worst bear markets in stocks we have ever had—and it’s only been a little over a month. There was a lot of leverage in the system, and price-insensitive buying, like with stock buybacks, indexing, and short volatility trades.
Now, all that leverage is being unwound. The first 30%-plus drop was a result of that. Whether there’s any more downside is probably a question of economics.
I can tell you that, as someone who watches sentiment, this is perhaps one of the most difficult markets to trade in I’ve ever seen. For the past few weeks, sentiment has been max bearish, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at record levels, and every sentiment indicator or oscillator pegged at zero.
Yet, the market has continued lower. Mean reversion simply has not worked.
Some people are comparing this to the crash of 1929, and the subsequent bear market that took stocks down 89%. They speak with certainty.
I don’t have that level of certainty, and I don’t see how anyone can.
The problem here is not economic. The problem is cultural: Americans are not well-equipped to deal with a crisis like this.
Culture of Disobedience
Americans disobey. They don’t follow rules. They don’t follow guidance. I had to pick up some medicine at the vet’s office for one of my cats the other day, and there were hundreds of cars on the road—just like any other day.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Where I live, in South Carolina, very few people are taking this seriously. People are individuals, and they follow their own judgment. There are few indications this will change, outside of tanks rolling down residential streets.
Because of our culture of disobedience, it’s very unlikely we will contain the spread of the virus. Some people will observe shelter-in-place orders, and others won’t. We’ll “flatten the curve” a little, but we’ll also lengthen the duration of the crisis, without clear resolution, which is actually the worst possible scenario.
Maybe some folks could also stand to do some social distancing from their portfolio. There could be more downside in stocks. Many people went into this with a large allocation to equities. If the market gives you a chance to rejigger your asset allocation, you should probably take it.
Things Were Risky All Along
I’ve been thinking a lot about safety.
Nobody cared about safety going into this. No one. I was reading articles about people investing their emergency funds in growth stocks. That kind of stuff.
For years, I was preaching safety. Bonds and cash. Gold. Huge allocations to this stuff. And there were millions of Baby Boomers who had giant allocations to stocks. Now they are selling—at a loss. It’s amazing.
And because markets are markets, when it’s time for people to take on risk again, nobody will want to. They’ll be interested in safe havens like bonds and cash and gold… at precisely the right moment to go into risk-on mode instead. But that is many years away.
With stocks down a little over 30% from their peak, even with the recent bear-market rally, this is already one of the worst bears of all time. And it happened in a blink.
For years, people have been focused on returns to the exclusion of all else—and not risk. Suddenly, the world seems like a much riskier place than it did a month ago.
Nothing has changed but the perception—it was risky all along.
The stock market is not, and never was, a magic money machine. The stock market has levels of volatility that make it unsuitable for many investors. No one should depend on the stock market for their retirement. It is unpredictable and capricious. And the vast majority of people are psychologically unequipped to handle it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--GA gov Brian Kemp April 1st : … “Findind’ out that this virus is now transmitting before people see

GA gov Brian Kemp April 1st : … “Findind’ out that this virus is now transmitting before people see signs… … Those individuals could have been infecting’ people before they ever felt bad. Well, we didn’t know that before the last 24 hours.”

( CNN ) A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread @ @ @ @ @ coughs , but also just by talking , or possibly even just breathing .
“ @ @ @ @ @ ] specific research is limited , the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization @ @ @ @ @ , ” according to the letter , written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg , chairman of @ @ @ @ @ Academy of Sciences .
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask @ @ @ @ @ grocery story .

At 1:01:20
SPREADS ‘JUST BY BREATHING’
(CNN)A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.
“While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing,” according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery story.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--If This Chart Breaks Down, We Crash

If This Chart Breaks Down, We Crash

The single most important chart in the world right now is investment grade credit spreads .
The Fed has announced it will buy investment grade corporate debt for the first time in history .
The Fed also announced that it will be directly buying investment grade corporate debt ETFs like $ LQD .
With that in mind , credit spreads on investment grade corporate debt have become “ the canary in the coal mine ” for this Fed intervention .
If they collapse in a significant way despite the Fed buying them , then we know the Fed has failed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can see this in the below chart .
Credit spreads for investment grade corporate debt actually bottomed on Thursday March 19th .
Stocks didn ’ t bottom until Monday of the following week .
Again , credit is leading stocks here .
So if you want to get an idea of where the markets are heading you NEED to watch credit .
With that in mind , yesterday ’ s breakdown was extremely dangerous for the credit markets .
As you can see in the chart below , the drop brought credit right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If we see a breakdown from here , then it ’ s HIGHLY likely the system will go back into a panic and we will see new lows for stocks .
On that note , if you ’ re worried about weathering a potential market crash , we ’ ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public .
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “ Crash insurance ” on your portfolio ( these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
To pick up your copy of this report , FREE , swing by :

The single most important chart in the world right now is investment grade credit spreads.
The Fed has announced it will buy investment grade corporate debt for the first time in history. The Fed also announced that it will be directly buying investment grade corporate debt ETFs like $LQD.
With that in mind, credit spreads on investment grade corporate debt have become “the canary in the coal mine” for this Fed intervention. If they collapse in a significant way despite the Fed buying them, then we know the Fed has failed to prop up the system.
You can see this in the below chart. Credit spreads for investment grade corporate debt actually bottomed on Thursday March 19th. Stocks didn’t bottom until Monday of the following week.
Again, credit is leading stocks here. So if you want to get an idea of where the markets are heading you NEED to watch credit.
With that in mind, yesterday’s breakdown was extremely dangerous for the credit markets. As you can see in the chart below, the drop brought credit right to THE line of CRITICAL support.
If we see a breakdown from here, then it’s HIGHLY likely the system will go back into a panic and we will see new lows for stocks.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Shedlock: Recession Will Be Deeper Than The Great Financial Crisis

Economists at IHS Markit downgraded their economic forecast to a deep recession .
Please consider COVID-19 Recession to be Deeper Than That of 2008-2009 Our interim global forecast is the second prepared in March and is much more pessimistic than our 17 March regularly scheduled outlook .
It is based on major downgrades to forecasts of the US economy and oil prices .
The risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside and further downgrades are almost assured .
IHS Markit now believes the COVID-19 recession will be deeper than the one following the global financial crisis in 2008-09 .
Real world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared with a drop of 1.7 % in 2009 .
Many key economies will see double-digit declines ( at annualized rates ) in the second quarter , with the contraction continuing into the third quarter .
It will likely take two to three years for most economies to return to their pre-pandemic levels of output .
More troubling is the likelihood that , because of the negative effects of the uncertainty associated with the virus on capital spending , the path of potential GDP will be lower than before .
This happened in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Based on recent data and developments , IHS Markit has slashed the US 2020 forecast to a contraction of 5.4 % .
• Because of the deep US recession and collapsing oil prices , IHS Markit expects Canada ’ s economy to contract 3.3 % this year , before seeing a modest recovery in 2021 .
• Europe , where the number of cases continues to grow rapidly and lockdowns are pervasive , will see some of the worst recessions in the developed world , with 2020 real GDP drops of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK economies .
Italy faces a decline of 6 % or more .
The peak GDP contractions expected in the second quarter of 2020 will far exceed those at the height of the global financial crisis .
• Japan was already in recession , before the pandemic .
The postponement of the summer Tokyo Olympics will make the downturn even deeper .
IHS Markit expects a real GDP contraction of 2.5 % this year and a very weak recovery next year .
• China ’ s economic activity is expected to have plummeted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter .
It will then recover sooner than other countries , where the spread of the virus has occurred later .
IHS Markit predicts growth of just 2.0 % in 2020 , followed by a stronger-than-average rebound in 2021 , because of its earlier recovery from the pandemic .
• Emerging markets growth will also be hammered .
Not only are infection rates rising rapidly in key economies , such as India , but the combination of the deepest global recession since the 1930s , plunging commodity prices , and depreciating currencies ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ push many of these economies to the breaking point .
With that , Markit came around to my point of view all along .
Those expecting a V-shaped recovery are sadly mistaken .
I have been amused by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predictions of a strong rebound in the third quarter .
For example Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression followed by a fantasyland recovery .
I do not get these fast rebound fantasies , and neither does Jim Bianco .
He retweeted a Goldman Sachs estimate which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I do not know how deep this gets , but the rebound will not be quick , no matter what .
Please note that Fictional Reserve Lending Is the New Official Policy The Fed officially cut reserve requirements of banks to zero in a desperate attempt to spur lending .
It won ’ t help .
As I explain , bank reserves were effectively zero long ago .
US Output Drops at Fastest Rate in a Decade Meanwhile US Output Drops at Fastest Rate in a Decade In Europe , we see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If you believe the lies ( I don ’ t ) , China is allegedly recovered .
OK , precisely who will China be delivering the goods to ?
Demand in the US , Eurozone , and rest of the world has collapse .
We have gone from praying China will soon start delivering goods to not wanting them even if China can produce them .
Nothing is Working Now : What ’ s Next for America ?
On March 23 , I wrote Nothing is Working Now : What ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a list of projections from an excellent must see video presentation by Jim Bianco .
I added my own thoughts on the key points .
The bottom line is don ’ t expect a v-shaped recovery .
We will not return to the old way of doing business .
Globalization is not over , but the rush to globalize everything is .
This will impact earnings for years to come .
Finally , stimulus checks are on the way , but there will be no quick return to buying cars , eating out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who felt they finally had enough retirement money just had a quarter of it or more wiped out .
It will take a long time , if ever , for the same sentiment to return .
Spending will not recover .
Boomers will die first , and they are the ones with the most money .

by Mike Shedlock
Economists at IHS Markit downgraded their economic forecast to a deep recession.
Please consider COVID-19 Recession to be Deeper Than That of 2008-2009
Our interim global forecast is the second prepared in March and is much more pessimistic than our 17 March regularly scheduled outlook. It is based on major downgrades to forecasts of the US economy and oil prices. The risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside and further downgrades are almost assured. IHS Markit now believes the COVID-19 recession will be deeper than the one following the global financial crisis in 2008-09. Real world GDP should plunge 2.8% in 2020 compared with a drop of 1.7% in 2009. Many key economies will see double-digit declines (at annualized rates) in the second quarter, with the contraction continuing into the third quarter. It will likely take two to three years for most economies to return to their pre-pandemic levels of output. More troubling is the likelihood that, because of the negative effects of the uncertainty associated with the virus on capital spending, the path of potential GDP will be lower than before. This happened in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Six Key Points
Based on recent data and developments, IHS Markit has slashed the US 2020 forecast to a contraction of 5.4%. Because of the deep US recession and collapsing oil prices, IHS Markit expects Canada’s economy to contract 3.3% this year, before seeing a modest recovery in 2021. Europe, where the number of cases continues to grow rapidly and lockdowns are pervasive, will see some of the worst recessions in the developed world, with 2020 real GDP drops of approximately 4.5% in the eurozone and UK economies. Italy faces a decline of 6% or more. The peak GDP contractions expected in the second quarter of 2020 will far exceed those at the height of the global financial crisis. Japan was already in recession, before the pandemic. The postponement of the summer Tokyo Olympics will make the downturn even deeper. IHS Markit expects a real GDP contraction of 2.5% this year and a very weak recovery next year. China’s economic activity is expected to have plummeted at a near-double-digit rate in the first quarter. It will then recover sooner than other countries, where the spread of the virus has occurred later. IHS Markit predicts growth of just 2.0% in 2020, followed by a stronger-than-average rebound in 2021, because of its earlier recovery from the pandemic. Emerging markets growth will also be hammered. Not only are infection rates rising rapidly in key economies, such as India, but the combination of the deepest global recession since the 1930s, plunging commodity prices, and depreciating currencies (compounding already dangerous debt burdens) will push many of these economies to the breaking point.
No V-Shaped Recovery
With that, Markit came around to my point of view all along. Those expecting a V-shaped recovery are sadly mistaken.
I have been amused by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predictions of a strong rebound in the third quarter.
For example Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression followed by a fantasyland recovery.
Other GDP Estimates
Delusional Forecast
Advice Ignored by Trump
Fast Rebound Fantasies
I do not get these fast rebound fantasies, and neither does Jim Bianco. He retweeted a Goldman Sachs estimate which is not the same as endorsing it.
I do not know how deep this gets, but the rebound will not be quick, no matter what.
Fictional Reserve Lending
Please note that Fictional Reserve Lending Is the New Official Policy
The Fed officially cut reserve requirements of banks to zero in a desperate attempt to spur lending.
It won’t help. As I explain, bank reserves were effectively zero long ago.
US Output Drops at Fastest Rate in a Decade
Meanwhile US Output Drops at Fastest Rate in a Decade
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In Europe, we see Largest Collapse in Eurozone Business Activity Ever.
Lies From China
If you believe the lies (I don’t), China is allegedly recovered.
OK, precisely who will China be delivering the goods to? Demand in the US, Eurozone, and rest of the world has collapse.
We have gone from praying China will soon start delivering goods to not wanting them even if China can produce them.
Nothing is Working Now: What’s Next for America?
On March 23, I wrote Nothing is Working Now: What’s Next for America?
I noted 20 “What’s Next?” things.
It’s a list of projections from an excellent must see video presentation by Jim Bianco. I added my own thoughts on the key points.
The bottom line is don’t expect a v-shaped recovery. We will not return to the old way of doing business.
Globalization is not over, but the rush to globalize everything is. This will impact earnings for years to come.
Finally, stimulus checks are on the way, but there will be no quick return to buying cars, eating out, or traveling as much.
Boomers who felt they finally had enough retirement money just had a quarter of it or more wiped out.
It will take a long time, if ever, for the same sentiment to return. Spending will not recover. Boomers will die first, and they are the ones with the most money.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--If you want to create a totally false panic about a totally false pandemic – pick a coronavirus.

The Polymerase Chain Reaction ( PCR ) test that is currently being used is known not to work .
This test , at best , tells analysts that you have some viral DNA in your cells .
Which most of us do , most of the time .
PCR will only tell the analyst that the viral sequence is related to a specific type of virus – such as the huge family of coronaviruses .
But that ’ s all .
PCR doesn ’ t isolate for a specific virus , such as COVID-19 .
It can not tell you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ specifically .
This is why you ’ re hearing that most people with COVID-19 are showing nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms .
That ’ s because most coronavirus strains are nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms .
The few actual novel coronavirus cases do have some worse respiratory responses , but still have a very promising recovery rate , especially for those without prior issues .
So even if you don ’ t have COVID-19 , the PCR test might pick up another coronavirus in your system and give a false positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s not even getting into the other issue – viral load .
PCR is useless at telling you how much virus you may have .
And that ’ s the only question that really matters when it comes to diagnosing illness .
Everyone will have a virus kicking round in their system at any time , and most will not cause illness because their quantities are too small .
For a virus to sicken you , you need a lot of it , a massive amount of it .
But PCR does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t determine if it is present in sufficient quantities to sicken you .
If you feel sick and get a PCR test any random virus DNA might be identified even if they aren ’ t at all involved in your sickness which leads to false diagnoses .
And coronaviruses are incredibly common .
A large percentage of the world human population will have coronavirus DNA in them in small quantities even if they are perfectly well .
Do you see where this is going yet ?

by ratioetlogicae
The Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test that is currently being used is known not to work. This test, at best, tells analysts that you have some viral DNA in your cells. Which most of us do, most of the time. PCR will only tell the analyst that the viral sequence is related to a specific type of virus – such as the huge family of coronaviruses. But that’s all. PCR doesn’t isolate for a specific virus, such as COVID-19.
It cannot tell you whether or not you have COVID-19, specifically.
This is why you’re hearing that most people with COVID-19 are showing nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms. That’s because most coronavirus strains are nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms. The few actual novel coronavirus cases do have some worse respiratory responses, but still have a very promising recovery rate, especially for those without prior issues.
So even if you don’t have COVID-19, the PCR test might pick up another coronavirus in your system and give a false positive reading for COVID-19.
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And that’s not even getting into the other issue – viral load.
PCR is useless at telling you how much virus you may have. And that’s the only question that really matters when it comes to diagnosing illness. Everyone will have a virus kicking round in their system at any time, and most will not cause illness because their quantities are too small. For a virus to sicken you, you need a lot of it, a massive amount of it. But PCR does not test viral load and therefore can’t determine if it is present in sufficient quantities to sicken you.
If you feel sick and get a PCR test any random virus DNA might be identified even if they aren’t at all involved in your sickness which leads to false diagnoses.
And coronaviruses are incredibly common. A large percentage of the world human population will have coronavirus DNA in them in small quantities even if they are perfectly well.
Do you see where this is going yet?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Countries are avoiding the U.S dollar!

Countries are avoiding the U.S dollar!

The 8 member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ( SCO ) , including China , Russia & Pakistan , @ @ @ @ @ trade & investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars @ @ @ @ @ avoid the U.S dollar by making other arrangements when it comes to international trade .
@ @ @ @ @ record outflows this week of U.S treasuries this past week from foreign central banks… Could @ @ @ @ @ the USD and the currency lose its reserve currency status shortly ?

The 8 member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including China, Russia & Pakistan, have decided to conduct bilateral trade & investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars.
BREAKING 🚨🚨 The 8 member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including China, Russia & Pakistan, have decided to conduct bilateral trade & investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars. pic.twitter.com/q63DYb4Xa1 — Gold Telegraph (@GoldTelegraph_) April 2, 2020
Countries are beginning to avoid the U.S dollar by making other arrangements when it comes to international trade. I also noticed there were record outflows this week of U.S treasuries this past week from foreign central banks…
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Could we see a run on the USD and the currency lose its reserve currency status shortly?
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Trump launches major counter-narcotics operation in the middle of lockdown

My best guess is that 1 ) He saw everyone in the world cracking down on dissent .
2 ) @ @ @ @ @ would still need to move product when everyone else is not moving .
3 ) @ @ @ @ @ more jobless people will turn to drugs .
so , he ’ s cracking down @ @ @ @ @ opportunity .
OR , this is the beginning of a Prison Planet .
I wish @ @ @ @ @ I thought about posting this to WTF , but settled on NEWS .

My best guess is that
1) He saw everyone in the world cracking down on dissent.
2) He realized the drug dealers would still need to move product when everyone else is not moving.
3) He is worried more and more jobless people will turn to drugs.
so, he’s cracking down when he has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
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OR, this is the beginning of a Prison Planet.
I wish I knew for sure.
I thought about posting this to WTF, but settled on NEWS.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Don’t Nag Your Husband During Lockdown Malaysia Advises Women

Malaysia has the largest number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia with more than 2,900 and counting .
This week @ @ @ @ @ also had a serious public relations issue after an ill-conceived plan went online .
Malaysia @ @ @ @ @ , Family and Community Development issued a series of online posters on Facebook and Instagram @ @ @ @ @ .
It advised the nation ’ s women to help with the country ’ s @ @ @ @ @ their husbands .
The ministry also advised women to refrain from being “ sarcastic ” @ @ @ @ @ with household chores .
And it urged women working from home to dress up and @ @ @ @ @ It ) is extremely condescending both to women and men , ” Nisha Sabanayagam , @ @ @ @ @ group All Women ’ s Action Society , told Reuters .
“ These posters promote @ @ @ @ @ and perpetuate the concept of patriarchy .
”

Malaysia has the largest number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia with more than 2,900 and counting. This week, Malaysia’s government also had a serious public relations issue after an ill-conceived plan went online.
Malaysia’s Ministry for Women, Family and Community Development issued a series of online posters on Facebook and Instagram with the hashtag #WomenPreventCOVID19. It advised the nation’s women to help with the country’s partial lockdown by not nagging their husbands.
The ministry also advised women to refrain from being “sarcastic” if they asked for help with household chores. And it urged women working from home to dress up and wear makeup.
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“(It) is extremely condescending both to women and men,” Nisha Sabanayagam, a manager at the advocacy group All Women’s Action Society, told Reuters. “These posters promote the concept of gender inequality and perpetuate the concept of patriarchy.”
www.npr.org/2020/04/01/825051317/dont-nag-your-husband-during-lock-down-malaysias-government-advises-women


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--JUDGE rules Federal Gov’t. does not have the POWER to BAN BUMP STOCKS…..

Trump appointed judge in Texas .
Ruled that such a ban constitutes police powers and that the federal government does not have police powers as part of the Enumerated Powers given to it in the Constitution .
“ Brian Lane lawfully purchased three bump stocks before the rule took effect and raises a Fifth Amendment challenge that the federal government must compensate him for taking his property .
The federal government responds that the rule falls under a valid use of the police power , which requires no compensation .
But as explained below , the federal government forgot the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Constitution itself .
The federal government here raised the talisman of police power 31 times in its motion to dismiss and an additional 19 times in its reply .
This seemed unusual to the Court because the Court had thought the police power is a power reserved for the states , not for the federal government .
Fearful the Court was wrong , it turned to the first place one should always turn to with such questions : the Constitution .
Article I , section 8 enumerates the powers the People gave to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s founding : the tax power , the borrowing power , the commerce power , the naturalization power , the bankruptcy power , the power to coin money , the postal power , the maritime power , and the war power.39 None of these powers is the police power.
” reason.com/2020/03/31/district-court-finds-bump-stock-ban-may-constitute-a-taking-because-the-federal-government-lacks-a-police-power/ This guy actually interprets the Constitution as written .

Trump appointed judge in Texas. Ruled that such a ban constitutes police powers and that the federal government does not have police powers as part of the Enumerated Powers given to it in the Constitution.
From the judge:
“Brian Lane lawfully purchased three bump stocks before the rule took effect and raises a Fifth Amendment challenge that the federal government must compensate him for taking his property. The federal government responds that the rule falls under a valid use of the police power, which requires no compensation. But as explained below, the federal government forgot the Tenth Amendment and the structure of the Constitution itself.
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The federal government here raised the talisman of police power 31 times in its motion to dismiss and an additional 19 times in its reply. This seemed unusual to the Court because the Court had thought the police power is a power reserved for the states, not for the federal government. Fearful the Court was wrong, it turned to the first place one should always turn to with such questions: the Constitution. Article I, section 8 enumerates the powers the People gave to the federal government at our Nation’s founding: the tax power, the borrowing power, the commerce power, the naturalization power, the bankruptcy power, the power to coin money, the postal power, the maritime power, and the war power.39 None of these powers is the police power.”
reason.com/2020/03/31/district-court-finds-bump-stock-ban-may-constitute-a-taking-because-the-federal-government-lacks-a-police-power/
This guy actually interprets the Constitution as written.
AC


Stimulus? Really?

Here ’ s who doesn ’ t qualify for a coronavirus stimulus checkwww.businessinsider.com › who-wont-get-coronavirus-stimulus-chec… 1 day ago – Bear @ @ @ @ @ payment is technically a tax credit to apply to your 2020 tax bill that the @ @ @ @ @ time .
Question Are the banks that caused this mess and are getting “ bailed @ @ @ @ @ , will they have to pay back their “ stimulus ” also ?
Or unlike @ @ @ @ @ this money they won ’ t have to pay back ?

Here’s who doesn’t qualify for a coronavirus stimulus checkwww.businessinsider.com › who-wont-get-coronavirus-stimulus-chec…
1 day ago – Bear in mind that the stimulus payment is technically a tax credit to apply to your 2020 tax bill that the government is providing ahead of time.
Question
Are the banks that caused this mess and are getting “bailed out” with their billions, will they have to pay back their “stimulus” also?
Or unlike the common plebes , is this money they won’t have to pay back?
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Trump: Saudi Arabia and Russia: “I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Mil

Trump: Saudi Arabia and Russia: “I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more…”

Just spoke to my friend MBS ( Crown Prince ) of Saudi Arabia , who spoke with President Putin of @ @ @ @ @ & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels , and maybe @ @ @ @ @ it happens , will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry !
Oil prices @ @ @ @ @ for Russia-Saudi Arabia pact Kremlin rejects US president ’ s remarks that deal could be @ @ @ @ @ days ’ www.ft.com/content/79b7dc43-da6b-4027-b68f-a177524972b6

Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia,
who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope
that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million
Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens,
will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245720677660925952
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Oil prices rally as Trump spurs hopes for Russia-Saudi Arabia
pact
Kremlin rejects US president’s remarks that deal could be
agreed within a ‘few days’
www.ft.com/content/79b7dc43-da6b-4027-b68f-a177524972b6
h/t dr0id


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Trump proposes eliminating payroll tax through the end of the year

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump told lawmakers he wants a payroll tax cut that would last at least through the election to give consumer spending a jolt as the coronavirus threatens to cripple economic growth .
The president told Republicans at a closed-door lunch Tuesday that he wants the payroll tax rate to drop to zero through the end of the year , according to a White House and a Senate official .
Another White House official added that different timelines were discussed .
Trump is currently backing only those that would stretch through at least November or December , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond 2020 .
The official argued that anything shorter would be bad politically and make less economic sense , with the impact of the coronavirus likely to stretch through the summer .
Trump has made the growing economy , record stock market numbers and low unemployment a keystone of his re-election pitch , sometimes telling crowds that they have no choice but to vote for him or else their retirement savings will be at risk .
Under the president ’ s timeline , he would ensure that the tax is zeroed out throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to senators his comments from Monday expressing a desire for federal assistance to provide paid sick leave , loans for small businesses and tax relief for specific industries , according to White House aides and senators who attended the lunch .
Help for the oil industry was also discussed , senators said .
The White House is considering federal assistance for the shale oil industry , which has been hit hard by the oil price collapse this week , a White House official said .
But the official cautioned that the situation is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be on the level of an industry bailout .

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump told lawmakers he wants a payroll tax cut that would last at least through the election to give consumer spending a jolt as the coronavirus threatens to cripple economic growth.
The president told Republicans at a closed-door lunch Tuesday that he wants the payroll tax rate to drop to zero through the end of the year, according to a White House and a Senate official.
Another White House official added that different timelines were discussed. Trump is currently backing only those that would stretch through at least November or December, with some talk of expanding the cuts beyond 2020. The official argued that anything shorter would be bad politically and make less economic sense, with the impact of the coronavirus likely to stretch through the summer.
Trump has made the growing economy, record stock market numbers and low unemployment a keystone of his re-election pitch, sometimes telling crowds that they have no choice but to vote for him or else their retirement savings will be at risk. Under the president’s timeline, he would ensure that the tax is zeroed out throughout his re-election campaign.
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Trump also repeated to senators his comments from Monday expressing a desire for federal assistance to provide paid sick leave, loans for small businesses and tax relief for specific industries, according to White House aides and senators who attended the lunch.
Help for the oil industry was also discussed, senators said. The White House is considering federal assistance for the shale oil industry, which has been hit hard by the oil price collapse this week, a White House official said. But the official cautioned that the situation is still fluid and that any aid would not be on the level of an industry bailout.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-proposes-payroll-tax-cut-through-end-year-n1154656


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Why your grocer’s shelves are still empty

I work in grocery retail and have a significant amount of knowledge regarding store level operations , logistics , and the manufacture of the goods you buy in the stores .
The reason for this post is due to the sheer amount of customers , along with Instacart shoppers , who seem completely oblivious as to why products are out of stock .
For some , this will seem like obvious information .
For others , I hope to shine a light on what ’ s going on and where we are at currently , and hopefully when things will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the store level , most grocery stores have a surprisingly large amount of inventory .
While they may run out of one brand , there is usually another ( or more ) available .
Have you ever shopped for groceries the day before Christmas ?
You ’ ve probably noticed some out of stocks ( oos ) .
This is after roughly 4-5 days of heavy volume .
In many cases , the store had the opportunity to stock up on common items for that particular holiday that the distribution center ( DC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when panic shopping happens , and it happened suddenly without warning , it ’ s like holiday sales on steroids .
Your grocery store had zero time to stock up , nor did the DC .
At this level of buying/hoarding , shelves empty out in about 2-4 days of the ‘ good stuff , ’ and when the people who follow are left with no other choice but to buy whatever is left .
At this point , store volume is up over 600 % , and I ’ ve seen much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point , the DC is scrambling to purchase from the manufacturers .
The supply is there , but now there is a logistical nightmare .
Retailers , as well as the DC and manufacturers , operate on a pretty strict labor budget .
There aren ’ t enough ‘ pickers ’ in the DC to pull the massive orders generated by the stores .
Extra deliveries can not happen because there aren ’ t enough truck drivers , including contracted drivers .
Things have to slow down , so supplies get allocated , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will fill one truck up , and one only .
DC ’ s do have a maximum service level and ours was operating well beyond capacity .
Stage 3 : This is where we are at now .
Shopping has calmed down , but with kids out of school , families being at home , and many restaurants closed , many have no option but to buy groceries .
Volume is still heavier than normal but not crazy .
Store shelves look better , but there are many oos .
Now the manufacturer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They either don ’ t have the labor , the resources ( base ingredients ) , or the manufacturing capability , or all of those , to produce the amount needed to stock the grocery store shelves across the entire country .
They are now streamlining operations by only producing their most popular items .
The others are suspended indefinitely .
So if you can ’ t find your favorite ultra-soft-5-ply toilet paper , that ’ s why .
I should note that the organic market isn ’ t as deep as you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take time before they become readily available again .
They are out there , but it will be spotty and there will be constant oos .
Stage 4 – Recovery : If we happen to be at our peak of the whole epidemic right now and no other ‘ events ’ take place , it will take 4-6 weeks before things appear to be normal , possibly longer .
They will not be normal , but you will be able to find most everything you want .
It will take months before manufacturers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ line of products available .
I ’ ve heard some estimates as late as October but no one truly knows .
The act of panic buying has created a ripple that runs far deeper than your grocery store ’ s shelves .
As if it hasn ’ t been said enough , grocery stores will never shut down .
They will continue to operate in some capacity .
I suspect after this crisis we will be looking to update our online ordering and delivery processes to provide for anyone who can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After all , we work for you !
So please , do not panic buy .
Do not hoard .
Help us to help you !
If things get worse , a second wave is very possible .
I hope people learn .
If it does , it will absolutely crush the grocery industry .
Things are very fragile right now .
If people stay calm and trust us and what we are doing to provide , we can deliver .
Maybe not to everyone ’ s expectations , but you won @ @ @ @ @

by Lazonby
I work in grocery retail and have a significant amount of knowledge regarding store level operations, logistics, and the manufacture of the goods you buy in the stores. The reason for this post is due to the sheer amount of customers, along with Instacart shoppers, who seem completely oblivious as to why products are out of stock. For some, this will seem like obvious information. For others, I hope to shine a light on what’s going on and where we are at currently, and hopefully when things will get better.
Stage 1: At the store level, most grocery stores have a surprisingly large amount of inventory. While they may run out of one brand, there is usually another (or more) available. Have you ever shopped for groceries the day before Christmas? You’ve probably noticed some out of stocks (oos). This is after roughly 4-5 days of heavy volume. In many cases, the store had the opportunity to stock up on common items for that particular holiday that the distribution center (DC) had already bought. Now, when panic shopping happens, and it happened suddenly without warning, it’s like holiday sales on steroids. Your grocery store had zero time to stock up, nor did the DC. At this level of buying/hoarding, shelves empty out in about 2-4 days of the ‘good stuff,’ and when the people who follow are left with no other choice but to buy whatever is left. At this point, store volume is up over 600%, and I’ve seen much higher.
Stage 2: At this point, the DC is scrambling to purchase from the manufacturers. The supply is there, but now there is a logistical nightmare. Retailers, as well as the DC and manufacturers, operate on a pretty strict labor budget. There aren’t enough ‘pickers’ in the DC to pull the massive orders generated by the stores. Extra deliveries cannot happen because there aren’t enough truck drivers, including contracted drivers. Things have to slow down, so supplies get allocated, say 1500 cases per store or whatever will fill one truck up, and one only. DC’s do have a maximum service level and ours was operating well beyond capacity.
Stage 3: This is where we are at now. Shopping has calmed down, but with kids out of school, families being at home, and many restaurants closed, many have no option but to buy groceries. Volume is still heavier than normal but not crazy. Store shelves look better, but there are many oos. Now the manufacturer’s are feeling the pain. They either don’t have the labor, the resources (base ingredients), or the manufacturing capability, or all of those, to produce the amount needed to stock the grocery store shelves across the entire country. They are now streamlining operations by only producing their most popular items. The others are suspended indefinitely. So if you can’t find your favorite ultra-soft-5-ply toilet paper, that’s why.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I should note that the organic market isn’t as deep as you may think, so these items will take time before they become readily available again. They are out there, but it will be spotty and there will be constant oos.
Stage 4 – Recovery: If we happen to be at our peak of the whole epidemic right now and no other ‘events’ take place, it will take 4-6 weeks before things appear to be normal, possibly longer. They will not be normal, but you will be able to find most everything you want. It will take months before manufacturers will be able to have their full line of products available. I’ve heard some estimates as late as October but no one truly knows. The act of panic buying has created a ripple that runs far deeper than your grocery store’s shelves.
As if it hasn’t been said enough, grocery stores will never shut down. They will continue to operate in some capacity. I suspect after this crisis we will be looking to update our online ordering and delivery processes to provide for anyone who can’t leave their home during such an event. After all, we work for you! So please, do not panic buy. Do not hoard. Help us to help you!
If things get worse, a second wave is very possible. I hope people learn. If it does, it will absolutely crush the grocery industry. Things are very fragile right now. If people stay calm and trust us and what we are doing to provide, we can deliver. Maybe not to everyone’s expectations, but you won’t go hungry.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Scotland about to abolish trial by jury because “coronavirus”… Duterte orders police & military to s

Scotland about to abolish trial by jury because “coronavirus”… Duterte orders police & military to shoot covid-19 quarantine violators

The new Coronavirus ( Scotland ) Bill grants sweeping powers to Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Parliament , and makes dramatic changes to the criminal justice system .
Among a long list of changes , the Bill seeks to : Replace trial by jury with bench trials , presided over by a Judge or local Sheriff Remove the maximum time of 140 days an accused can await trial Relax hearsay evidence law , allowing judges to hear pre-recorded witness statements that are not open to cross-examination This just happened as well I ’ ll Send You To The Grave !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ SHOOT Covid-19 Quarantine Violators “ Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has warned that those who violate quarantines amid the Covid-19 crisis could wind up dead , ordering security forces to fire upon violent ‘ troublemakers ’ as the country battles the outbreak .
The stark warning came during an unscheduled televised address on Wednesday night , in which Duterte told the police and military to adopt a gloves-off approach for violators of lockdown measures on Luzon – the country ’ s largest and most populous island – imposed last month to stem the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not hesitate .
My orders are to the police and the military , as well as the [ districts ] , that if there is trouble or the situation arises that people fight and your lives are on the line , shoot them dead , ” the president said .
”

The new Coronavirus (Scotland) Bill grants sweeping powers to Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Parliament, and makes dramatic changes to the criminal justice system.
Among a long list of changes, the Bill seeks to:
Replace trial by jury with bench trials, presided over by a Judge or local Sheriff
Remove the maximum time of 140 days an accused can await trial
Relax hearsay evidence law, allowing judges to hear pre-recorded witness statements that are not open to cross-examination
off-guardian.org/2020/03/31/scotlands-sinister-covid19-response-suspend-trial-by-jury/
This just happened as well
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I’ll Send You To The Grave!: Duterte Orders Police & Military To SHOOT Covid-19 Quarantine Violators
“Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has warned that those who violate quarantines amid the Covid-19 crisis could wind up dead, ordering security forces to fire upon violent ‘troublemakers’ as the country battles the outbreak.
The stark warning came during an unscheduled televised address on Wednesday night, in which Duterte told the police and military to adopt a gloves-off approach for violators of lockdown measures on Luzon – the country’s largest and most populous island – imposed last month to stem the spread of the coronavirus.
“I will not hesitate. My orders are to the police and the military, as well as the [districts], that if there is trouble or the situation arises that people fight and your lives are on the line, shoot them dead,” the president said.”
Read More:
www.rt.com/news/484736-duterte-shoot-quarantine-violators/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-02--Tucker: Trump should cancel H1B visas this year because many Americans out-of-work

Did you know we are also bringing them in to be public school teachers now ?

“Please do the needful.”
Did you know we are also bringing them in to be public school teachers now?
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PDX