investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--GME Short Squeeze: An In-depth Analysis

GME Short Squeeze: An In-depth Analysis

Seeing that a significant interest has developed around the fabled GME short squeeze , I have written this post and I hope this writing provides an overview of the situation .
The entire argument for a short squeeze hinges on the possibility that either the management agrees with Ryan Cohen ’ s plan and addresses it or he decides to pursue a hostile takeover .
In this spirit , we urge you to quickly provide stockholders with a credible and publicly-available roadmap for cost containment , prioritizing profitable retail locations and geographic markets , and building the e-commerce ecosystem gamers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is Ryan Cohen ’ s plan in its most raw form .
Or to put it more simply , he wants GameStop to become the ultimate destination for gamers by leveraging its 55 million PowerUp members , its brand power ; reducing lossmaking operations in Europe and Australia and to make investments in a Chewy like website for gaming .
Has management been doing anything ?
Yes .
A lot .
It ’ s hiring talents for building a successful online gaming store .
Entered into a multi-year revenue-sharing agreement with Microsoft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grace by the newest console cycle in which some people thought ( like me ) diskless gaming is going to be the leader .
But the reality turned out to be quite the opposite .
Add to that , the Nintendo Switch sold like wildfire in the US and is going strong , you have a winning combination for GameStop which would likely result in good quarters for the coming quarters .
Management has also started a rebranding effort with some changes being made to its logo , items that are kept in-store @ @ @ @ @ @ @ management is likely to address Cohen ’ s concern and the lifeline it has received or will be receiving from the newest console could be its saving grace .
If it can turn around or the management gives guidance that it CAN turn around its business model a short squeeze is imminent .
Why would it be inevitable ?
Notice that short interest is almost 3 times higher than its float and more than outstanding shares , GME as a company is still relatively undervalued ( assuming it doesn ’ t go under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this company is not going to 0 as they have probably assumed , they will be forced to cover their shorts .
The above-mentioned condition of short interest would guarantee that they have to cover .
Also considering the average daily volume , this squeeze can last much longer ( 3-4 days may be ) than the other historical squeezes like Volkswagen short squeeze when it became the most valuable company in the world for a short while .
But given that the scenario surrounding GME is unprecedented , there is no telling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say that it will be MASSIVE .
Some shorts are already under water .
Some of them are likely covering as noted by various Redditors and retail investors who are looking at the stock tick by tick .
Also considering that short interest rose to a whopping 309.83 % and is now down to 297.13 % ( as of this writing from Morningstar data ) , it ’ s obvious that some of it were covered .
The recent stock price appreciation could be a result of that plus the expectation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : There is considerable retail interest in this stock .
Considering that this stock is being heavily promoted in r/wallstreetbets and driven by that a lot of people are buying shares .
According to a survey conducted there ( not that reliable , but a good indicator of interest ) , that subreddit alone has enough ownership to get a board seat .
Open Interest in call options is also huge considering that this is only a $ 1B market cap company .
It ’ s filled to the brim with OTM call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and further ) .
And market makers and option sellers would have to hedge to serve this crowd , in turn increasing the stock price .
This , in turn , could create a feedback loop where the shorts have to cover their positions , leading to a further increase in stock price , which would force market makers to purchase more shares which could increase stock price and on and on until it triggers a squeeze of epic proportion .
Likely improving financial health : GME announced voluntary redemption of senior notes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 125M of its senior notes .
This is signalling that the company has managed to generate enough cash flow to cover its debt early .
It could even help improve its credit rating which would help it attract institutional investors more and other perks that come with improved credit ratings .
Declining debt is necessary as it would ultimately help deleverage the company and put it in a more sustainable footing which is ultimately what is needed for avoiding bankruptcy .
Technical analysis : This is not my forte .
I have bare-bones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for entry and exit purposes .
But according to some retail investors in Reddit and tradingview GME has formed a cup and handle bullish pattern .
The scenario in which a short squeeze doesn ’ t occur is PROBABLY the scenario in which GME ultimately faces bankruptcy .
As the thesis for short squeeze is laid out , the thesis for the short sellers is also crystal clear .
After all , GME is STILL a large brick and mortar store that is trying to sell a product that could be very easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The revenue of GameStop for the past few quarters is in steep decline .
The company is overly leveraged and has many stores that are loss-making operations .
Its online store has much lower visibility and investment and is lacking in many aspects ( in my personal view ) .
Its credit rating is not that good and Cohen himself somewhat criticised the management for trying to hang on to its old ways of doing things .
Gaming and associated products are bound to thrive and grow at a CAGR of 9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past .
Yet GameStop FAILS to capitalize on this trend and is continuously losing market share while destroying its financials .
This is a clear sign that something is inherently broken within the company .
While the management does seem to be trying to fix things , it could prove to be too little too late .
To change its fortune it needs to turn around its business models like Best Buy or Walmart .
Yet it seems pretty unfeasible judging by its financials .
GameStop had adequate time to change with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but its backwards-looking culture and late entry made its journey full of competition .
Short sellers believe that ultimately GameStop wouldn ’ t be able to achieve a business turnaround and gain a critical mass of customers in its online space and management incompetency will ultimately lead to its bankruptcy .
Thus its faith would be like the numerous mom and pop shops or the various retail giants that were .
Even if GME share rises due to retail mania and market maker hedging ; institutional investor ownership could decline , leaving retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shorts may bite their tongue and keep on paying interest as long as they believe no fundamental change in the business is going to happen .
Which means they may not need to cover their position as long as the company becomes bankrupt , thus the fabled short squeeze may never materialize .
After all , most shorts are probably institutional investors like Melvin Capital who can always maintain their margin requirements ( if any ) and like the retail investors they can also figure out what the retail investors are trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ squeeze .
The next two or three quarters are pivotal for GME .
There are various nuances that I avoided writing ( which are probably even more important to write ) cause it might have taken too much of my time .
Writing this post was a good exercise for me and I decided to ride on the GME train after doing so .
Before you decide to do anything , you should do your research .
This is not financial advice .
You better read this one even if you didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by nafizzaki
Seeing that a significant interest has developed around the fabled GME short squeeze, I have written this post and I hope this writing provides an overview of the situation.
The case for a squeeze:
The entire argument for a short squeeze hinges on the possibility that either the management agrees with Ryan Cohen’s plan and addresses it or he decides to pursue a hostile takeover.
In this spirit, we urge you to quickly provide stockholders with a credible and publicly-available roadmap for cost containment, prioritizing profitable retail locations and geographic markets, and building the e-commerce ecosystem gamers deserve. (from the letter)
This is Ryan Cohen’s plan in its most raw form. Or to put it more simply, he wants GameStop to become the ultimate destination for gamers by leveraging its 55 million PowerUp members, its brand power; reducing lossmaking operations in Europe and Australia and to make investments in a Chewy like website for gaming.
Has management been doing anything? Yes. A lot.
It’s hiring talents for building a successful online gaming store. Entered into a multi-year revenue-sharing agreement with Microsoft.
It has also received a saving grace by the newest console cycle in which some people thought(like me) diskless gaming is going to be the leader. But the reality turned out to be quite the opposite.
Add to that, the Nintendo Switch sold like wildfire in the US and is going strong, you have a winning combination for GameStop which would likely result in good quarters for the coming quarters.
Management has also started a rebranding effort with some changes being made to its logo, items that are kept in-store and online etc.
It seems like management is likely to address Cohen’s concern and the lifeline it has received or will be receiving from the newest console could be its saving grace. If it can turn around or the management gives guidance that it CAN turn around its business model a short squeeze is imminent.
Why would it be inevitable?
Notice that short interest is almost 3 times higher than its float and more than outstanding shares,
GME as a company is still relatively undervalued (assuming it doesn’t go under). If the shorts realize that this company is not going to 0 as they have probably assumed, they will be forced to cover their shorts.
The above-mentioned condition of short interest would guarantee that they have to cover. Also considering the average daily volume, this squeeze can last much longer(3-4 days may be) than the other historical squeezes like Volkswagen short squeeze when it became the most valuable company in the world for a short while.
But given that the scenario surrounding GME is unprecedented, there is no telling how it could end up other than to say that it will be MASSIVE.
Some shorts are already under water. Some of them are likely covering as noted by various Redditors and retail investors who are looking at the stock tick by tick. Also considering that short interest rose to a whopping 309.83% and is now down to 297.13% (as of this writing from Morningstar data), it’s obvious that some of it were covered.
The recent stock price appreciation could be a result of that plus the expectation of good quarterly earnings report.
Retail mania: There is considerable retail interest in this stock. Considering that this stock is being heavily promoted in r/wallstreetbets and driven by that a lot of people are buying shares. According to a survey conducted there(not that reliable, but a good indicator of interest), that subreddit alone has enough ownership to get a board seat.
Open Interest in call options is also huge considering that this is only a $1B market cap company. It’s filled to the brim with OTM call options(from December 4 to April and further). And market makers and option sellers would have to hedge to serve this crowd, in turn increasing the stock price.
This, in turn, could create a feedback loop where the shorts have to cover their positions, leading to a further increase in stock price, which would force market makers to purchase more shares which could increase stock price and on and on until it triggers a squeeze of epic proportion.
Likely improving financial health: GME announced voluntary redemption of senior notes. Management has decided to redeem $125M of its senior notes. This is signalling that the company has managed to generate enough cash flow to cover its debt early.
It could even help improve its credit rating which would help it attract institutional investors more and other perks that come with improved credit ratings.
Declining debt is necessary as it would ultimately help deleverage the company and put it in a more sustainable footing which is ultimately what is needed for avoiding bankruptcy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Technical analysis: This is not my forte. I have bare-bones knowledge in TA and only use it for entry and exit purposes.
But according to some retail investors in Reddit and tradingview GME has formed a cup and handle bullish pattern.
Analyst Upgrades: Analysts are upgrading GME stock. Well, that’s good, I guess.
The Case For Bankruptcy
The scenario in which a short squeeze doesn’t occur is PROBABLY the scenario in which GME ultimately faces bankruptcy.
As the thesis for short squeeze is laid out, the thesis for the short sellers is also crystal clear.
After all, GME is STILL a large brick and mortar store that is trying to sell a product that could be very easily purchased using the power of the internet.
The revenue of GameStop for the past few quarters is in steep decline. The company is overly leveraged and has many stores that are loss-making operations.
Its online store has much lower visibility and investment and is lacking in many aspects(in my personal view).
Its credit rating is not that good and Cohen himself somewhat criticised the management for trying to hang on to its old ways of doing things.
Gaming and associated products are bound to thrive and grow at a CAGR of 9% and had grown even more in the past.
Yet GameStop FAILS to capitalize on this trend and is continuously losing market share while destroying its financials. This is a clear sign that something is inherently broken within the company.
While the management does seem to be trying to fix things, it could prove to be too little too late.
To change its fortune it needs to turn around its business models like Best Buy or Walmart. Yet it seems pretty unfeasible judging by its financials.
GameStop had adequate time to change with the times and become an early adopter but its backwards-looking culture and late entry made its journey full of competition.
Short sellers believe that ultimately GameStop wouldn’t be able to achieve a business turnaround and gain a critical mass of customers in its online space and management incompetency will ultimately lead to its bankruptcy. Thus its faith would be like the numerous mom and pop shops or the various retail giants that were.
Even if GME share rises due to retail mania and market maker hedging; institutional investor ownership could decline, leaving retail investors as the ultimate bagholders. The shorts may bite their tongue and keep on paying interest as long as they believe no fundamental change in the business is going to happen.
Which means they may not need to cover their position as long as the company becomes bankrupt, thus the fabled short squeeze may never materialize.
After all, most shorts are probably institutional investors like Melvin Capital who can always maintain their margin requirements(if any) and like the retail investors they can also figure out what the retail investors are trying to do and thus avoid triggering any short squeeze.
Conclusion
The next two or three quarters are pivotal for GME.
If "Management decides to address Cohen's concerns and manages to show their roadmap to success and improves its financials within the next two quarters = Short squeeze" Else If "Cohen declares hostile takeover or something close to that line= Short squeeze" Else If "Management addresses Cohen but fails to deliver within the next two quarters and has disappointing earnings=Unsure" #improbable cause next two quarters are expected to be good or at least the guidance which is more important Else If "Management doesn't fully address Cohen's concern, Cohen also doesn't make any move yet the business improves still= Likely short squeeze" Else If "Management fails to address Cohen's concern, Cohen disassociates himself, business fundamentals detoriorate= Retail bagholders" Else "I don't know really, imagine your own scenario, you are not bound to my conclusions. In fact my conclusions could be entirely off the mark. We are trying to predict the future here. Hope you come to your own conclusions. :)
Disclaimer
There are various nuances that I avoided writing(which are probably even more important to write) cause it might have taken too much of my time. Writing this post was a good exercise for me and I decided to ride on the GME train after doing so. Before you decide to do anything, you should do your research. This is not financial advice.
Further Reading
You better read this one even if you didn’t read mine.
Ownership survey.
Hmm.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--Mainstream media caught with a hoax “fact-check”

This Just In ...
Stimulus plan may NOT include $ 1200 check for those who Need it Most .
There @ @ @ @ @

by DXMXD
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ABC outs the hoax “fact-check.” Why are they trying to lie about the SMOKING gun video? Do you see how the media lies to you?


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--THE RULING CLASS CLAIMS THEY ARE GETTING THE COVID-19 VACCINE

Bill Clinton , George W. Bush , and Barack Obama all say they will be getting the new Coronavirus vaccine .
As if we didn ’ t trust the ruling class already , this should seal the deal .
This is an obvious bit of propaganda .
The three former presidents from both sides of the aisle ( political parasites and members of the ruling class ) have all pledged to take a COVID-19 vaccine on camera when it ’ s available to them , hoping to assuage fears at a time when recent polls have shown that just under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take a vaccine , according to a report by Today .
As Brian with High Impact TV says , “ anytime a world leader takes a V-A-double-X on TV , it might behoove the general public to take a closer look.
” We know these three former presidents have all lied to us and deceived us , so the very idea of them taking the vaccine on video is laughable .
Even if they do get a shot , does anyone honestly believe it ’ s anything more than a simple saline solution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 2020 and people are still falling for this .
Obama said on “ The Joe Madison Show ” on SiriusXM Wednesday that he was committed to taking a vaccine .
“ I promise you that when it ’ s then made for people who are less at risk , I will be taking it , and I may end up taking it on TV or having it filmed just so that people know that I trust this science , and what I don ’ t trust is getting COVID , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aide Freddy Ford provided to NBC News and first reported by CNN indicated that the 43rd president ( who lied extensively about weapons of mass destruction and 9/11 to send the troops into endless wars ) would also be publicly taking the vaccine when it becomes available .
“ A few weeks ago President Bush asked me to let Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx know that , when the time is right , he wants to do what he can to help encourage his fellow citizens to get vaccinated , ” Ford said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be deemed safe and administered to the priority populations .
Then , President Bush will get in line for his , and will gladly do so on camera.
” Not convinced yet ?
Well , let ’ s add in Bill Clinton .
He ’ s been an honest and upstanding ruler , right ?
( That ’ s sarcasm . )
Clinton ’ s staff indicated he would take the vaccine and potentially be filmed doing it , NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker reported on TODAY Thursday .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your sleeve and submit , slaves .
The presidents are going to .
And there ’ s no way they ’ d ever lie and fake these videos of them getting the vaccine .
Of course , they ’ ll be getting the same shot they want us to take… ( sarcasm again )

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all say they will be getting the new Coronavirus vaccine. As if we didn’t trust the ruling class already, this should seal the deal. This is an obvious bit of propaganda.
The three former presidents from both sides of the aisle (political parasites and members of the ruling class) have all pledged to take a COVID-19 vaccine on camera when it’s available to them, hoping to assuage fears at a time when recent polls have shown that just under half of Americans said they would not take a vaccine, according to a report by Today.
As Brian with High Impact TV says, “anytime a world leader takes a V-A-double-X on TV, it might behoove the general public to take a closer look.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We know these three former presidents have all lied to us and deceived us, so the very idea of them taking the vaccine on video is laughable. Even if they do get a shot, does anyone honestly believe it’s anything more than a simple saline solution? Wake up, folks. It’s 2020 and people are still falling for this.
Obama said on “The Joe Madison Show” on SiriusXM Wednesday that he was committed to taking a vaccine. “I promise you that when it’s then made for people who are less at risk, I will be taking it, and I may end up taking it on TV or having it filmed just so that people know that I trust this science, and what I don’t trust is getting COVID,” he said.
A statement by Bush aide Freddy Ford provided to NBC News and first reported by CNN indicated that the 43rd president (who lied extensively about weapons of mass destruction and 9/11 to send the troops into endless wars) would also be publicly taking the vaccine when it becomes available. “A few weeks ago President Bush asked me to let Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx know that, when the time is right, he wants to do what he can to help encourage his fellow citizens to get vaccinated,” Ford said. “First, the vaccines need to be deemed safe and administered to the priority populations. Then, President Bush will get in line for his, and will gladly do so on camera.”
Not convinced yet? Well, let’s add in Bill Clinton. He’s been an honest and upstanding ruler, right? (That’s sarcasm.) Clinton’s staff indicated he would take the vaccine and potentially be filmed doing it, NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker reported on TODAY Thursday.
So that’s it! Roll up your sleeve and submit, slaves. The presidents are going to. And there’s no way they’d ever lie and fake these videos of them getting the vaccine. Of course, they’ll be getting the same shot they want us to take… (sarcasm again)


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--Elon Musk will love this: Tesla short sellers lost more than the US airline industry this year

According to analysis by S3 Partners , short investors in Tesla— those who placed bets in the market that its @ @ @ @ @ have lost $ 35 billion on those positions so far this year .
Tesla short @ @ @ @ @ in November alone , as the company ’ s shares climbed 46 % in the @ @ @ @ @ more than the $ 6.7 billion Tesla itself lost in the 11 years from when @ @ @ @ @ 2008 to the end of last year .
Dusaniwsky said many of the shorts have @ @ @ @ @ the number of Tesla shares held by short sellers is down 63 % so far @ @ @ @ @ said many are still unwilling to change their minds , despite the losses .

www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/investing/tesla-short-sellers-elon-musk/index.html
According to analysis by S3 Partners, short investors in Tesla— those who placed bets in the market that its shares would lose value — have lost $35 billion on those positions so far this year.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Tesla short sellers lost $8.5 billion in November alone, as the company’s shares climbed 46% in the month. That’s more than the $6.7 billion Tesla itself lost in the 11 years from when it first reported results in 2008 to the end of last year.
Dusaniwsky said many of the shorts have closed out their positions — the number of Tesla shares held by short sellers is down 63% so far this year. But he said many are still unwilling to change their minds, despite the losses.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--Market AGAIN More Precariously Euphoric Than Any Time in History

We are now seeing the most euphoric stock stock market in history — a market as precariously perched as the one I laid out last January .
“ Market Euphoria Surpasses Dot Com Levels ” says one headline .
The sudden hope of multiple vaccines appears to have inoculated the market against an epidemic of bad news that would normally drive markets down .
First , the most stridently contested ( and possibly corrupt ) election any of us has ever witnessed is the kind of uncertainty markets usually run from .
The presumptive victory of the candidate who most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets usually don ’ t like .
The rapid resurgence of COVID back to its spring crisis levels is something the market certainly hated when COVID first hit this year and ripped the economy to shreds .
The return to full COVID lockdowns in many areas is something the market should fear , having experienced the economic damage wrought by spring ’ s brief lockdowns and knowing now how longterm that damage can be .
These lockdowns could last even longer since we are in the coronavirus ’ s typical favorite time of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indoor holiday festivities could turn out to be “ super spreader ” events .
We shall see .
Meanwhile the approaching end-of-year termination of the numerous economic protective programs that have been put in place and the impending December budget war following with the greatest October deficit in history all seem to be offset by the glinting hope of a $ 900 billion stimulus program , far smaller than the stimulus programs that failed to pass congress earlier this year .
Never mind , however , that all such promises in the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fat-end-up crazy is it ?
Reality has completely departed from Wall Street .
While the market dropped in September and October as I thought it would , it only fell to the edge of correction levels ( down about 10 % ) each month and then righted itself both times .
Certainly no October surprise .
The real surprise has been in seeing the market take off and soar in its greatest November of all time right after Trump ostensibly lost the election .
We remember how it soared when he won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soared even more when by all counts and courts so far , he has lost in 2020 .
Much of the post-election rally actually came from people covering their shorts , which they put in during the more tumultuous months of September and October : Now that we ’ ve gone full euphoria , however , with almost everyone running long in what I think is “ hope against all hope , ” market shorts have drained to their lowest point in recent history : Put another way , the market is up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down there : That ’ s one way of saying , “ We ’ re all in.
” How in ?
Well 93 % of all stocks on the S & P are trading above their 200-day moving average , and optimism is at an apparent all-time high .
The market has gone very , VERY long !
… with speculation being nearly at its peak extremity : The S & P forward P/E ratio , often used to measure whether stocks are over- or under-valued is back for the first time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Zero Hedge points out , consumer confidence certainly doesn ’ t match up : … and the so-called smart money doesn ’ t match up : As a result , the famous Fear & Greed Index looks like this : Virtually no fear anywhere in sight , which is just about where we were when I wrote that similar article to this one last January , titled “ Stock Market More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History.
” It took about a month before the big crash came .
We can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And we know what that means .
When everyone is one one side of the trade , it often proves life-saving to be on the other before long .
One has to wonder when balanced funds that maintain a defined value ratio of stocks to bonds are forced to rebalance at the upcoming end of the year after such a rise in stocks , what happens ?
According to the “ Buffett Indicator , ” the market is overvalued whenever the totality of market cap is more than 100 % of GDP .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ do actually mean NEVER : This means valuations have NO economic foundation .
By yet another measure , the Shiller CAPE Ratio , stocks are more overvalued than they were at the 1929 crash .
They are , in fact , the highest they ’ ve been in history , except at the dot-com bust — even higher than they were when I wrote that January article : These heady levels on all measures , of course , have been attained because of the combination of US government and Federal Reserve working in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s craziest money balloon .
With that , lets check up on the most important underlying fact about the economy , about which the market does not care .
Employment after the spring crash already stopped far short of full recovery , as I reported in a recent article .
Today , the New Jobs number for November came in at 245,000 , far , far below October ’ s 610,000 , and far below the estimates by economists , which had pegged about 440,000 .
Unsurprisingly as we move from brick-and-mortar retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even as we moved toward the normally high retail season , while warehousing jobs rose .
You can see , all the new jobs added since the 2020 stock-market crash ( including those that merely get reposted as new jobs because the descriptions get rewritten and those that go unfilled ) fall far short of replacing the jobs lost in this spring ’ s catastrophic collapse , and the rate at which they are being added now is back to our longterm pre-pandemic hiring , meaning the post-pandemic rehiring surge has expired @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far below normal employment .
At this rate , it will take until 2024 to bet back to where we were before the lockdown/shutdown economic catastrophe .
In terms of total unemployment , we are holding about flat now , but it is a VERY high plateau .
We ’ ve improved about 60 % in terms of normal unemployment roles , but less than that in the kinds of unemployment that we usually don ’ t even track — self-employment or contract workers who have no work .
It ain ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and she ’ s got even further to fall this time than she had last January .

by David Haggith
We are now seeing the most euphoric stock stock market in history — a market as precariously perched as the one I laid out last January. “Market Euphoria Surpasses Dot Com Levels” says one headline.
There is another way of putting it: extreme euphoria.
The sudden hope of multiple vaccines appears to have inoculated the market against an epidemic of bad news that would normally drive markets down.
First, the most stridently contested (and possibly corrupt) election any of us has ever witnessed is the kind of uncertainty markets usually run from. The presumptive victory of the candidate who most promises to raise taxes is also something markets usually don’t like. The rapid resurgence of COVID back to its spring crisis levels is something the market certainly hated when COVID first hit this year and ripped the economy to shreds. The return to full COVID lockdowns in many areas is something the market should fear, having experienced the economic damage wrought by spring’s brief lockdowns and knowing now how longterm that damage can be. These lockdowns could last even longer since we are in the coronavirus’s typical favorite time of year in a season when weeks of indoor holiday festivities could turn out to be “super spreader” events. We shall see.
Meanwhile the approaching end-of-year termination of the numerous economic protective programs that have been put in place and the impending December budget war following with the greatest October deficit in history all seem to be offset by the glinting hope of a $900 billion stimulus program, far smaller than the stimulus programs that failed to pass congress earlier this year. Never mind, however, that all such promises in the past several months have failed.
How upside-down, fat-end-up crazy is it?
Reality has completely departed from Wall Street. While the market dropped in September and October as I thought it would, it only fell to the edge of correction levels (down about 10%) each month and then righted itself both times. Certainly no October surprise.
The real surprise has been in seeing the market take off and soar in its greatest November of all time right after Trump ostensibly lost the election. We remember how it soared when he won in 2016. Well, now it soared even more when by all counts and courts so far, he has lost in 2020.
Much of the post-election rally actually came from people covering their shorts, which they put in during the more tumultuous months of September and October:
The most shorted stocks were up 28.48% since November 2, while the S&P 500 is up about 11.1%. The Goldman Sachs Most Shorted Index’s RSI reading is 84.14, only eclipsed by June 20, 2018.
Now that we’ve gone full euphoria, however, with almost everyone running long in what I think is “hope against all hope,” market shorts have drained to their lowest point in recent history:
Put another way, the market is up here, while the put-call ratio is down there:
Zero Hedge
That’s one way of saying, “We’re all in.” How in? Well 93% of all stocks on the S&P are trading above their 200-day moving average, and optimism is at an apparent all-time high. The market has gone very, VERY long!
Zero Hedge
… with speculation being nearly at its peak extremity:
Zero Hedge
The S&P forward P/E ratio, often used to measure whether stocks are over- or under-valued is back for the first time to peak dot-com bust levels:
Zero Hedge
But, as Zero Hedge points out, consumer confidence certainly doesn’t match up:
Zero Hedge
… and the so-called smart money doesn’t match up:
Zero Hedge
As a result, the famous Fear & Greed Index looks like this:
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I’m not selling until it hits 105. pic.twitter.com/c3QTlBZCmw — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) November 25, 2020
Virtually no fear anywhere in sight, which is just about where we were when I wrote that similar article to this one last January, titled “Stock Market More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History.” It took about a month before the big crash came.
We can see where fear went from there:
Greed, as additionally measured in positioning and sentiment, is reaching a uniformity of positioning and consensus either at rarely or at never before seen levels. Everything is vertical and one way. Northman Trader
And we know what that means. When everyone is one one side of the trade, it often proves life-saving to be on the other before long. One has to wonder when balanced funds that maintain a defined value ratio of stocks to bonds are forced to rebalance at the upcoming end of the year after such a rise in stocks, what happens?
It might be fairly stated a lot of what we are currently seeing is entirely incompatible with history. The hype is tremendous as literally everybody is long, hyping for ever higher prices, protection doesn’t exist and charts are tremendously extended.
According to the “Buffett Indicator,” the market is overvalued whenever the totality of market cap is more than 100% of GDP. Look where we are now:
179.9% market cap vs. GDP.
The widest market disconnect from the economy ever.#documentingreality pic.twitter.com/YLCpEEYD6U — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) November 28, 2020
Never been higher.
I do actually mean NEVER:
Ever is a long time. pic.twitter.com/3YQ3SOuxlF — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) November 28, 2020
This means valuations have NO economic foundation.
By yet another measure, the Shiller CAPE Ratio, stocks are more overvalued than they were at the 1929 crash. They are, in fact, the highest they’ve been in history, except at the dot-com bust — even higher than they were when I wrote that January article:
These heady levels on all measures, of course, have been attained because of the combination of US government and Federal Reserve working in consort now to create the world’s craziest money balloon.
With that, lets check up on the most important underlying fact about the economy, about which the market does not care.
Frigid employment goes sub-zero
Employment after the spring crash already stopped far short of full recovery, as I reported in a recent article. Today, the New Jobs number for November came in at 245,000, far, far below October’s 610,000, and far below the estimates by economists, which had pegged about 440,000.
Unsurprisingly as we move from brick-and-mortar retail to online retail, retail jobs dropped, even as we moved toward the normally high retail season, while warehousing jobs rose.
Putting the job number in perspective,
You can see, all the new jobs added since the 2020 stock-market crash (including those that merely get reposted as new jobs because the descriptions get rewritten and those that go unfilled) fall far short of replacing the jobs lost in this spring’s catastrophic collapse, and the rate at which they are being added now is back to our longterm pre-pandemic hiring, meaning the post-pandemic rehiring surge has expired, as I said it would, far below normal employment. At this rate, it will take until 2024 to bet back to where we were before the lockdown/shutdown economic catastrophe.
In terms of total unemployment, we are holding about flat now, but it is a VERY high plateau. We’ve improved about 60% in terms of normal unemployment roles, but less than that in the kinds of unemployment that we usually don’t even track — self-employment or contract workers who have no work.
It ain’t over till the fat lady falls … and she’s got even further to fall this time than she had last January.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--U.S. Money Reserve on the Benefits of Silver in an IRA

Many people are aware of the use of traditional and Roth IRAs for retirement planning .
These types of retirement accounts can be powerful tools for helping create financial security for the future .
However , many other variations of IRAs can also be helpful in this process .
Today , we look at information from U.S. Money Reserve to better understand one such account type—the self-directed IRA .
One of the things that sets this type of retirement account apart from others in the IRA class is its ability to hold silver and other physical precious metals to help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us first use information from U.S. Money Reserve to better understand the details of a self-directed IRA .
Unlike traditional or Roth IRAs , which typically hold conventional assets like stocks , bonds , and mutual funds , a self-directed IRA provides the account holder with many other asset options .
These IRAs can hold a variety of assets , including real estate , franchises , and precious metals .
Importantly , however , the account contributor must open a self-directed IRA with a qualified custodian .
Self-directed IRAs allow contributors to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ classes .
This is important for individuals who may not want to keep all of their retirement savings in paper-based financial assets such as stocks .
A self-directed IRA gives you increased flexibility when it comes to safeguarding your future by putting you in complete control of your asset mix .
Precious metals , such as silver , have long been considered a safe-haven asset for their history of maintaining—and even increasing—their purchasing power , especially in times of great financial volatility or uncertainty .
U.S. Money Reserve provides an analysis of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s price during the financial crisis of 2008 .
As the company notes , four months before the start of the crisis , in August 2007 , the precious metal sat at $ 11.95/oz .
The metal then experienced a few fluctuations in price before hitting $ 13.94/oz .
near the end of the Great Recession .
By the end of April 2011 , silver had risen to a price of $ 48.70/oz .
While silver is currently lower than its all-time high , now could be an opportunity to buy silver @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This price trajectory helps illustrate an important point about the ability of silver to weather an economic storm .
In the above case , while other assets such as real estate were experiencing price drops , the metal realized a price increase by the end of the recession .
Examples of silver ’ s performance during economic storms help explain the benefits of adding silver to a retirement plan .
It is important to take note of eligibility requirements when selecting silver for use in a self-directed IRA .
For starters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highly refined , ” according to the IRS .
That means that it must meet a minimum fineness of 0.999 .
It must also be produced by a government mint or accredited refiner , assayer , or manufacturer .
Types of approved silver for use in a self-directed IRA include : • None Select silver bars ( such as those minted by the Royal Canadian Mint ) The IRS requires any silver purchased through an IRA to be stored in an approved third-party off-site depository .
There are a variety of benefits to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ secure storage and safekeeping of your physical silver .
These facilities also often have extensive insurance to reimburse individuals should something happen to their metals .
Being intentional about metal storage is an important consideration when it comes to utilizing a self-directed IRA .
U.S. Money Reserve is a Texas-based precious metals provider .
The company ’ s team of Account Executives assist customers looking to diversify their savings with physical precious metals .
The company ’ s president , Philip N. Diehl , is a former director of the U.S. Mint .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ background in both public policy and personal financial security .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

Many people are aware of the use of traditional and Roth IRAs for retirement planning. These types of retirement accounts can be powerful tools for helping create financial security for the future. However, many other variations of IRAs can also be helpful in this process. Today, we look at information from U.S. Money Reserve to better understand one such account type—the self-directed IRA. One of the things that sets this type of retirement account apart from others in the IRA class is its ability to hold silver and other physical precious metals to help further diversify a retirement portfolio.
Self-Directed IRAs
Let us first use information from U.S. Money Reserve to better understand the details of a self-directed IRA. Unlike traditional or Roth IRAs, which typically hold conventional assets like stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, a self-directed IRA provides the account holder with many other asset options. These IRAs can hold a variety of assets, including real estate, franchises, and precious metals. Importantly, however, the account contributor must open a self-directed IRA with a qualified custodian.
Self-directed IRAs allow contributors to take advantage of the benefits of specific asset classes. This is important for individuals who may not want to keep all of their retirement savings in paper-based financial assets such as stocks. A self-directed IRA gives you increased flexibility when it comes to safeguarding your future by putting you in complete control of your asset mix.
Precious Metal Benefits
Precious metals, such as silver, have long been considered a safe-haven asset for their history of maintaining—and even increasing—their purchasing power, especially in times of great financial volatility or uncertainty. U.S. Money Reserve provides an analysis of this ability with a look at the metal’s price during the financial crisis of 2008. As the company notes, four months before the start of the crisis, in August 2007, the precious metal sat at $11.95/oz. The metal then experienced a few fluctuations in price before hitting $13.94/oz. near the end of the Great Recession. By the end of April 2011, silver had risen to a price of $48.70/oz. While silver is currently lower than its all-time high, now could be an opportunity to buy silver before prices possibly move higher once again.
This price trajectory helps illustrate an important point about the ability of silver to weather an economic storm. In the above case, while other assets such as real estate were experiencing price drops, the metal realized a price increase by the end of the recession. Examples of silver’s performance during economic storms help explain the benefits of adding silver to a retirement plan.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Silver Eligibility
It is important to take note of eligibility requirements when selecting silver for use in a self-directed IRA. For starters, the silver in question must be “highly refined,” according to the IRS. That means that it must meet a minimum fineness of 0.999. It must also be produced by a government mint or accredited refiner, assayer, or manufacturer. Types of approved silver for use in a self-directed IRA include:
American Eagle bullion coins
Australian Kookaburra coins
Canadian Maple Leaf coins
Select silver bars (such as those minted by the Royal Canadian Mint)
Storing Silver
The IRS requires any silver purchased through an IRA to be stored in an approved third-party off-site depository. There are a variety of benefits to using a depository, such as ensuring secure storage and safekeeping of your physical silver. These facilities also often have extensive insurance to reimburse individuals should something happen to their metals. Being intentional about metal storage is an important consideration when it comes to utilizing a self-directed IRA.
About the Company
U.S. Money Reserve is a Texas-based precious metals provider. The company’s team of Account Executives assist customers looking to diversify their savings with physical precious metals. The company’s president, Philip N. Diehl, is a former director of the U.S. Mint. As such, Diehl has an extensive background in both public policy and personal financial security.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-05--Zombie Companies, My Thesis, How Is This Possible?

I ’ m not sure where to start .
I ’ m not sure how all this is possible .
I guess let me start by talking about Apple , the technology giant .
Everyone loves Apple , it ’ s one of the best companies in the entire world and this last year the stock has gone up around 100 % .
Pretty remarkable considering it added almost one trillion dollars in market capitalization .
Does anyone care to question how it has gone up this much ?
What has it done ?
Well , let me tell you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Apple had the SAME earnings it had last year , but the stock was up 100 % .
How can this be ?
Their earnings per share went up .
Do you want to guess why their earnings per share went up ?
Because they bought back their stock .
Now , with all that being said , Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world and are capable of buying back that stock .
What worries me and what I KNOW is happening is that companies , due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the interest rate is basically 0 ) , are taking out loans like it ’ s free money .
To their defense , it virtually is .
What they ’ re doing with this money is buying back their shares , which allows for their earnings per share to increase , and the stock follows .
To summarize , some companies are financing their share repurchase programs by taking out loans because the interest rate is so low .
With that being said , I ’ ll go into my next points and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not pay their principle debt , only the interest on their debt .
For example , if you take out a loan you can ’ t pay the principle , just the interest .
Zombies companies make up close to 20 % of the S & P 1500 index , which is much more broad than the S & P 500 index .
These companies literally can not service their debt .
There ’ s four things you can obviously do with debt .
• You can pay it .
These companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it .
Many of them can ’ t because of poor credit .
• You can default .
If these companies do default , bye bye !
• You can devalue it .
Which brings me to my next point .
The federal reserve of the United State is starting to devalue to dollar .
In 2008 after the great financial crisis , we had limited QE ( Quantitative Easing ) .
Now , the fed has literally said we will give whatever money is needed to stimulate the economy .
We now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , but they have been buying back corporate bonds and treasury notes like crazy .
There will be inflation in the near future , believe me .
There ’ s literally NO WAY out for these companies other than the DEVALUATION of the dollar .
What ’ s going on is that these companies are being propped up by these free interest rate loans .
In a normal interest rate environment , many would already be bankrupt and out of the game .
And think of this , if the banks stopped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and cuts of the tap to these companies , they ’ ll go under and everyone will lose the entire investment .
So they HAVE to keep loaning the money .
I don ’ t understand why the federal reserve lowered interest rates so much from 2015-2018 .
Recessions aren ’ t horrible things , they ’ re simply part of the cycle of capitalism .
Their QE has prevented them and now we are left these a bunch of companies on life support leeching from the system .
I have absolutely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This problem has only gotten worse in the last few years I ’ ve been following it , and I decided to make a post about it .
In my opinion , and it ’ s not professional , but I believe the US dollar is going to crumble in the next decade or so .
I actually think that our financial system might be completely propped up by these HISTORICALLY low interest rates and when they go negative , WHICH THEY WILL , everyone better watch the fuck out .
Gold and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the realization that the federal reserve of the United States has gone to war with the US dollar .
Buckle up .
This is serious shit .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by MoneyMitchOG
I’m not sure where to start. I’m not sure how all this is possible. I guess let me start by talking about Apple, the technology giant. Everyone loves Apple, it’s one of the best companies in the entire world and this last year the stock has gone up around 100%. Pretty remarkable considering it added almost one trillion dollars in market capitalization. Does anyone care to question how it has gone up this much? What has it done? Well, let me tell you guys a little secret. In 2015, Apple had the SAME earnings it had last year, but the stock was up 100%. How can this be? Their earnings per share went up. Do you want to guess why their earnings per share went up? Because they bought back their stock. Now, with all that being said, Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world and are capable of buying back that stock. What worries me and what I KNOW is happening is that companies, due to this low interest rate environment (the interest rate is basically 0), are taking out loans like it’s free money. To their defense, it virtually is. What they’re doing with this money is buying back their shares, which allows for their earnings per share to increase, and the stock follows. To summarize, some companies are financing their share repurchase programs by taking out loans because the interest rate is so low.

With that being said, I’ll go into my next points and information. Zombie companies are firms that cannot pay their principle debt, only the interest on their debt. For example, if you take out a loan you can’t pay the principle, just the interest. Zombies companies make up close to 20% of the S&P 1500 index, which is much more broad than the S&P 500 index. These companies literally cannot service their debt. There’s four things you can obviously do with debt.
You can pay it. These companies cannot. You can restructure it. Many of them can’t because of poor credit. You can default. If these companies do default, bye bye! You can devalue it. Which brings me to my next point.
The federal reserve of the United State is starting to devalue to dollar. In 2008 after the great financial crisis, we had limited QE (Quantitative Easing). Now, the fed has literally said we will give whatever money is needed to stimulate the economy. We now have UNLIMITED quantitative easing. Not only that, but they have been buying back corporate bonds and treasury notes like crazy. There will be inflation in the near future, believe me. There’s literally NO WAY out for these companies other than the DEVALUATION of the dollar.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What’s going on is that these companies are being propped up by these free interest rate loans. In a normal interest rate environment, many would already be bankrupt and out of the game. And think of this, if the banks stopped or whomever gives out the loans stops, and cuts of the tap to these companies, they’ll go under and everyone will lose the entire investment. So they HAVE to keep loaning the money.
I don’t understand why the federal reserve lowered interest rates so much from 2015-2018. Recessions aren’t horrible things, they’re simply part of the cycle of capitalism. Their QE has prevented them and now we are left these a bunch of companies on life support leeching from the system.
I have absolutely no clue what happens from here. This problem has only gotten worse in the last few years I’ve been following it, and I decided to make a post about it. In my opinion, and it’s not professional, but I believe the US dollar is going to crumble in the next decade or so. I actually think that our financial system might be completely propped up by these HISTORICALLY low interest rates and when they go negative, WHICH THEY WILL, everyone better watch the fuck out. Gold and bitcoin prices have been hitting all-time-highs due to the realization that the federal reserve of the United States has gone to war with the US dollar. Buckle up.
This is serious shit.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--Is the American dream over?

Is the American dream over?

For decades , a majority of Americans have been able to climb the economic ladder by earning higher incomes than their parents .
These improving conditions are known as upward mobility , and form an important part of the American Dream .
However , each consecutive generation is finding it harder to make this ascent .
In this graphic , we illustrate the decline in upward mobility over five decades using data from Opportunity Insights .
This graphic plots the probability that a 30-year-old American has to outearn their parents ( vertical axis ) depending on their parent ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The 1st percentile represents America ’ s lowest earners , while the 99th percentile the richest .
As we move from left to right on the chart , the portion of people who outearn their parents takes a steep decline .
This suggests that people born into upper class families are less likely to outearn their parents , regardless of generation .
The key takeaway , though , is that the starting point of this downward trend has shifted to the left .
In other words , fewer people in the lower- and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Declines can be seen across the board , but those growing up in the middle-class ( 50th percentile ) have taken the largest hit .
Within this bracket , individuals born in 1980 have only a 45 % chance of outearning their parents at age 30 , compared to 93 % for those born in 1940 .
One factor behind America ’ s deteriorating upward mobility is the sluggish pace at which wages have grown .
For example , the average hourly wage in 1964 , when converted to 2018 dollars , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 22.65 , the average hourly wage in 2018 .
That represents a mere 11.7 % increase over a span of 54 years .
However , this may not be as bad as it sounds .
While the prices of some goods and services have risen over time , others have actually become more affordable .
Since January 1998 , for example , the prices of electronic goods such as TVs and cellphones have actually decreased .
In this way , individuals today are more prosperous than previous generations .
This benefit is likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though .
Whereas inflation since January 1998 totaled 58.8 % , the costs of health and education services increased by more than 160 % over the same time frame .
While wages have been stagnant as a whole , it doesn ’ t paint the full picture .
Another factor to consider is America ’ s changing income distribution .
Like the data on upward mobility , the middle class takes the largest hit here , with its share of U.S. aggregate income falling by 19 percentage points .
Over the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ able to increase its share of total income by 20 percentage points .
Is It All Bad News ?
Americans are less likely to earn more than their parents , but this doesn ’ t mean that upward mobility has completely disappeared—it ’ s just becoming less accessible .
Below , we illustrate the changes in size for different income classes from 1967 to 2016 .
The upper middle class has grown significantly , from 6 % of the population in 1967 to 33 % in 2016 .
At the same time , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 36 % and the lower middle class shrank from 31 % to 16 % .
The data suggests that some middle class Americans are still managing to pull themselves up into the next income bracket—it ’ s just not an effect that was as broad-based as it ’ s been in the past .
Does The American Dream Still Exist ?
The American Dream is the belief that upward mobility is attainable for everyone through their own actions .
This implies that growth will be continuous and widespread , two factors that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Researchers believe there are numerous complex reasons behind America ’ s stagnating wages .
A decline in union membership , for example , could be eroding employees ’ collective bargaining power .
Other factors such as technological change may also apply downwards pressure on the wages of less educated workers .
Income inequality , on the other hand , is clearly shown by the data .
We can also refer to the Gini-coefficient , a statistical measure of economic inequality .
It ranges between 0 and 1 , with 0 representing perfect equality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person holds all the income ) .
The U.S. currently has a Gini-coefficient of 0.434 , the highest of any G7 country .
Long story short , the American Dream is still alive—it ’ s just becoming harder to come by .

by visualcapitalist
For decades, a majority of Americans have been able to climb the economic ladder by earning higher incomes than their parents. These improving conditions are known as upward mobility, and form an important part of the American Dream.
However, each consecutive generation is finding it harder to make this ascent. In this graphic, we illustrate the decline in upward mobility over five decades using data from Opportunity Insights.
Understanding The Chart
This graphic plots the probability that a 30-year-old American has to outearn their parents (vertical axis) depending on their parent’s income percentile (horizontal axis). The 1st percentile represents America’s lowest earners, while the 99th percentile the richest.
As we move from left to right on the chart, the portion of people who outearn their parents takes a steep decline. This suggests that people born into upper class families are less likely to outearn their parents, regardless of generation.
The key takeaway, though, is that the starting point of this downward trend has shifted to the left. In other words, fewer people in the lower- and middle-classes are climbing the economic ladder.
Decade Born Chance of Outearning Parents (Bottom Percentile) Chance of Outearning Parents (50th Percentile) Chance of Outearning Parents (Top Income Percentile) 1940 95% 93% 41% 1950 90% 81% 15% 1960 86% 62% 7% 1970 90% 59% 16% 1980 79% 45% 8%
Declines can be seen across the board, but those growing up in the middle-class (50th percentile) have taken the largest hit. Within this bracket, individuals born in 1980 have only a 45% chance of outearning their parents at age 30, compared to 93% for those born in 1940.
Stagnating Wage Growth a Culprit
One factor behind America’s deteriorating upward mobility is the sluggish pace at which wages have grown. For example, the average hourly wage in 1964, when converted to 2018 dollars, is $20.27. Compare this to $22.65, the average hourly wage in 2018. That represents a mere 11.7% increase over a span of 54 years.
However, this may not be as bad as it sounds. While the prices of some goods and services have risen over time, others have actually become more affordable. Since January 1998, for example, the prices of electronic goods such as TVs and cellphones have actually decreased. In this way, individuals today are more prosperous than previous generations.
This benefit is likely outweighed by relative increases in other services, though. Whereas inflation since January 1998 totaled 58.8%, the costs of health and education services increased by more than 160% over the same time frame.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Income Distribution
While wages have been stagnant as a whole, it doesn’t paint the full picture. Another factor to consider is America’s changing income distribution.
Income Class 1970 Share of U.S. Aggregate Income 2018 Share of U.S. Aggregate Income Upper 28% 48% Middle 62% 43% Lower 10% 9%
Source: Pew Research Center
Like the data on upward mobility, the middle class takes the largest hit here, with its share of U.S. aggregate income falling by 19 percentage points. Over the same time frame, the upper class was able to increase its share of total income by 20 percentage points.
Is It All Bad News?
Americans are less likely to earn more than their parents, but this doesn’t mean that upward mobility has completely disappeared—it’s just becoming less accessible. Below, we illustrate the changes in size for different income classes from 1967 to 2016.
The upper middle class has grown significantly, from 6% of the population in 1967 to 33% in 2016. At the same time, the middle class shrank from 47% to 36% and the lower middle class shrank from 31% to 16%.
The data suggests that some middle class Americans are still managing to pull themselves up into the next income bracket—it’s just not an effect that was as broad-based as it’s been in the past.
Does The American Dream Still Exist?
The American Dream is the belief that upward mobility is attainable for everyone through their own actions. This implies that growth will be continuous and widespread, two factors that have seemingly deteriorated in recent decades.
Researchers believe there are numerous complex reasons behind America’s stagnating wages. A decline in union membership, for example, could be eroding employees’ collective bargaining power. Other factors such as technological change may also apply downwards pressure on the wages of less educated workers.
Income inequality, on the other hand, is clearly shown by the data. We can also refer to the Gini-coefficient, a statistical measure of economic inequality. It ranges between 0 and 1, with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality (one person holds all the income). The U.S. currently has a Gini-coefficient of 0.434, the highest of any G7 country.
Long story short, the American Dream is still alive—it’s just becoming harder to come by.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--That could never happen in the US

That could never happen in the US

That could never happen in the US pic.twitter.com/U6UsLXqXXD The BOJ has become the biggest owner of Japanese stocks with a @ @ @ @ @ according to one estimate.t.co/BWrlYrFkKQ pic.twitter.com/ZqsXs8zxkK

That could never happen in the US pic.twitter.com/U6UsLXqXXD
The BOJ has become the biggest owner of Japanese stocks with a $434 billion portfolio, according to one estimate.t.co/BWrlYrFkKQ pic.twitter.com/ZqsXs8zxkK
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) December 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--America’s most powerful and successful gang

Epstein is the tip of the iceberg , the whole American judicial system is corrupt , and its enforcers , @ @ @ @ @ third world banana republic dictatorships , make bank .

Epstein is the tip of the iceberg, the whole American judicial system is corrupt, and its enforcers, like in so many other third world banana republic dictatorships, make bank.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t four-mile-circus


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--The CDC admits that there’s devastating mental health damage to children from masks & lockdowns.

What is already known about this topic ?
Emergency departments ( EDs ) are often the first point of care for children ’ s mental health emergencies .
U.S. ED visits for persons of all ages declined during the early COVID-19 pandemic ( March–April 2020 ) .
What is added by this report ?
Beginning in April 2020 , the proportion of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits among all pediatric ED visits increased and remained elevated through October .
Compared with 2019 , the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 5–11 and 12–17 years increased approximately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respectively .
What are the implications for public health practice ?
Monitoring indicators of children ’ s mental health , promoting coping and resilience , and expanding access to services to support children ’ s mental health are critical during the COVID-19 pandemic .
Published reports suggest that the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID-19 ) pandemic has had a negative effect on children ’ s mental health ( 1,2 ) .
Emergency departments ( EDs ) are often the first point of care for children experiencing mental health emergencies , particularly when other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
During March 29–April 25 , 2020 , when widespread shelter-in-place orders were in effect , ED visits for persons of all ages declined 42 % compared with the same period in 2019 ; during this time , ED visits for injury and non-COVID-19–related diagnoses decreased , while ED visits for psychosocial factors increased ( 4 ) .
To assess changes in mental health–related ED visits among U.S. children aged < 18 years , data from CDC ’ s National Syndromic Surveillance Program ( NSSP ) from January 1 through October 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collected during the same period in 2019 .
During weeks 1–11 ( January 1–March 15 , 2020 ) , the average reported number of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits overall was higher in 2020 than in 2019 , whereas the proportion of children ’ s mental health–related visits was similar .
Beginning in week 12 ( March 16 ) the number of mental health–related ED visits among children decreased 43 % concurrent with the widespread implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures ; simultaneously , the proportion of mental health–related ED visits increased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 ) and continued into October ( week 42 ) with increases of 24 % among children aged 5–11 years and 31 % among adolescents aged 12–17 years , compared with the same period in 2019 .
The increased proportion of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits during March–October 2020 might be artefactually inflated as a consequence of the substantial decrease in overall ED visits during the same period and variation in the number of EDs reporting to NSSP .
However , these findings provide initial insight into children ’ s mental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic and highlight the importance of continued monitoring of children ’ s mental health throughout the pandemic , ensuring access to care during public health crises , and improving healthy coping strategies and resiliency among children and families .
CDC analyzed NSSP ED visit data , which include a subset of hospitals in 47 states representing approximately 73 % of U.S. ED visits .
* Mental health–related ED visits among children aged < 18 years was a composite variable derived from the mental health syndrome query of the NSSP data for conditions likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after disaster events ( e.g.
, stress , anxiety , acute posttraumatic stress disorder , and panic ) .† Weekly numbers of mental health–related ED visits and proportions of mental health–related ED visits ( per 100,000 pediatric ED visits§ ) were computed overall , stratified by age group ( 0–4 , 5–11 , and 12–17 years ) and sex , and compared descriptively with the corresponding weekly numbers and proportions for 2019 .
Numbers and proportions of visits were compared during calendar weeks 1–11 ( January 1–March 14 , 2020 ) and weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) ( before and after a distinct decrease in overall ED visits reported beginning in week 12 in 2020 ) ¶ ( 4 ) .
Analyses are descriptive and statistical comparisons were not performed .
The number of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits decreased sharply from mid-March 2020 ( week 12 , March 15–21 ) through early April ( week 15 , April 5–11 ) and then increased steadily through October 2020 .
( Figure 1 ) .
During the same time , the overall proportion of reported children ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and remained higher through the end of the reporting period in 2020 than that in 2019 ( Figure 1 ) .
The proportion of mental health–related ED visits among children increased 66 % , from 1,094 per 100,000 during April 14–21 , 2019 to 1,820 per 100,000 during April 12–18 , 2020 ( Supplementary Figure 1 , stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/96609 ) .
Although the average reported number of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits overall was 25 % higher during weeks 1–11 in 2020 ( 342,740 ) than during the corresponding period in 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children ’ s mental health–related visits during the same time was similar ( 1,162 per 100,000 in 2020 versus 1,044 per 100,000 in 2019 ) .
( Table ) .
During weeks 12–42 , 2020 ( mid-March–October ) however , average weekly reported numbers of total ED visits by children were 43 % lower ( 149,055 ) , compared with those during 2019 ( 262,714 ) , whereas the average proportion of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits was approximately 44 % higher in 2020 ( 1,673 per 100,000 ) than that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Adolescents aged 12–17 years accounted for the largest proportion of children ’ s mental health–related ED visits during 2019 and 2020 ( Figure 2 ) .
During weeks 12–42 , 2020 , the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 5–11 years and adolescents aged 12–17 years increased approximately 24 % and 31 % , respectively compared with those in 2019 ; the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 0–4 years remained similar in 2020 .
( Table . )
The highest weekly proportion of mental health–related ED visits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years ( week 42 ; 1,177 per 100,000 ) and during April ( week 16 ) for adolescents aged 12–17 years ( 4,758 per 100,000 ) ( Figure 2 ) .
During 2019 and 2020 , the proportion of mental health–related ED visits was higher among females aged < 18 years than it was among males ( Supplementary Figure 2 , stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/96610 ) .
Similar patterns of increasing proportions of mental health–related ED visits were observed in 2020 for males and females , with increases beginning mid-March and continuing through October .

Rebecca T. Leeb, PhD1; Rebecca H. Bitsko, PhD1; Lakshmi Radhakrishnan, MPH2; Pedro Martinez, MPH3; Rashid Njai, PhD4; Kristin M. Holland, PhD5 (View author affiliations)
View suggested citation
Summary
What is already known about this topic?
Emergency departments (EDs) are often the first point of care for children’s mental health emergencies. U.S. ED visits for persons of all ages declined during the early COVID-19 pandemic (March–April 2020).
What is added by this report?
Beginning in April 2020, the proportion of children’s mental health–related ED visits among all pediatric ED visits increased and remained elevated through October. Compared with 2019, the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 5–11 and 12–17 years increased approximately 24%. and 31%, respectively.
What are the implications for public health practice?
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Monitoring indicators of children’s mental health, promoting coping and resilience, and expanding access to services to support children’s mental health are critical during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Published reports suggest that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a negative effect on children’s mental health (1,2). Emergency departments (EDs) are often the first point of care for children experiencing mental health emergencies, particularly when other services are inaccessible or unavailable (3). During March 29–April 25, 2020, when widespread shelter-in-place orders were in effect, ED visits for persons of all ages declined 42% compared with the same period in 2019; during this time, ED visits for injury and non-COVID-19–related diagnoses decreased, while ED visits for psychosocial factors increased (4). To assess changes in mental health–related ED visits among U.S. children aged <18 years, data from CDC’s National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP) from January 1 through October 17, 2020, were compared with those collected during the same period in 2019. During weeks 1–11 (January 1–March 15, 2020), the average reported number of children’s mental health–related ED visits overall was higher in 2020 than in 2019, whereas the proportion of children’s mental health–related visits was similar. Beginning in week 12 (March 16) the number of mental health–related ED visits among children decreased 43% concurrent with the widespread implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures; simultaneously, the proportion of mental health–related ED visits increased sharply beginning in mid-March 2020 (week 12) and continued into October (week 42) with increases of 24% among children aged 5–11 years and 31% among adolescents aged 12–17 years, compared with the same period in 2019. The increased proportion of children’s mental health–related ED visits during March–October 2020 might be artefactually inflated as a consequence of the substantial decrease in overall ED visits during the same period and variation in the number of EDs reporting to NSSP. However, these findings provide initial insight into children’s mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and highlight the importance of continued monitoring of children’s mental health throughout the pandemic, ensuring access to care during public health crises, and improving healthy coping strategies and resiliency among children and families.
CDC analyzed NSSP ED visit data, which include a subset of hospitals in 47 states representing approximately 73% of U.S. ED visits.* Mental health–related ED visits among children aged <18 years was a composite variable derived from the mental health syndrome query of the NSSP data for conditions likely to result in ED visits during and after disaster events (e.g., stress, anxiety, acute posttraumatic stress disorder, and panic).† Weekly numbers of mental health–related ED visits and proportions of mental health–related ED visits (per 100,000 pediatric ED visits§) were computed overall, stratified by age group (0–4, 5–11, and 12–17 years) and sex, and compared descriptively with the corresponding weekly numbers and proportions for 2019. Numbers and proportions of visits were compared during calendar weeks 1–11 (January 1–March 14, 2020) and weeks 12–42 (March 15–October 17, 2020) (before and after a distinct decrease in overall ED visits reported beginning in week 12 in 2020)¶ (4). Analyses are descriptive and statistical comparisons were not performed.
The number of children’s mental health–related ED visits decreased sharply from mid-March 2020 (week 12, March 15–21) through early April (week 15, April 5–11) and then increased steadily through October 2020. (Figure 1). During the same time, the overall proportion of reported children’s ED visits for mental health–related concerns increased and remained higher through the end of the reporting period in 2020 than that in 2019 (Figure 1). The proportion of mental health–related ED visits among children increased 66%, from 1,094 per 100,000 during April 14–21, 2019 to 1,820 per 100,000 during April 12–18, 2020 (Supplementary Figure 1, stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/96609). Although the average reported number of children’s mental health–related ED visits overall was 25% higher during weeks 1–11 in 2020 (342,740) than during the corresponding period in 2019 (274,736), the proportion of children’s mental health–related visits during the same time was similar (1,162 per 100,000 in 2020 versus 1,044 per 100,000 in 2019). (Table). During weeks 12–42, 2020 (mid-March–October) however, average weekly reported numbers of total ED visits by children were 43% lower (149,055), compared with those during 2019 (262,714), whereas the average proportion of children’s mental health–related ED visits was approximately 44% higher in 2020 (1,673 per 100,000) than that in 2019 (1,161 per 100,000).
Adolescents aged 12–17 years accounted for the largest proportion of children’s mental health–related ED visits during 2019 and 2020 (Figure 2). During weeks 12–42, 2020, the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 5–11 years and adolescents aged 12–17 years increased approximately 24% and 31%, respectively compared with those in 2019; the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 0–4 years remained similar in 2020. (Table.) The highest weekly proportion of mental health–related ED visits occurred during October for children aged 5–11 years (week 42; 1,177 per 100,000) and during April (week 16) for adolescents aged 12–17 years (4,758 per 100,000) (Figure 2).
During 2019 and 2020, the proportion of mental health–related ED visits was higher among females aged <18 years than it was among males (Supplementary Figure 2, stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/96610). Similar patterns of increasing proportions of mental health–related ED visits were observed in 2020 for males and females, with increases beginning mid-March and continuing through October.
www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a3.htm?s_cid=mm6945a3_w


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--Even Snopes fact-check proves itself wrong about the vaccine (could vs would)

Good ole Snopes .
The vaccine being “ is female sterilization ” is false , but females COULD become infertile @ @ @ @ @ entire meaning .
Rest assured good citizens , the vaccine is not female sterilization , @ @ @ @ @ sterilization .

by ravioli_king
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Good ole Snopes. The vaccine being “is female sterilization” is false, but females COULD become infertile. Key words change an entire meaning. Rest assured good citizens, the vaccine is not female sterilization, but it could be female sterilization.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--Pfizer claim that their covid vaccine is 95% effective, but their chairman says: “we’re not sure if

Pfizer claim that their covid vaccine is 95% effective, but their chairman says: “we’re not sure if someone can transmit the virus after vaccination”. So what is it effective at, then?

We have all seen the news that the Pfizer COVID vaccine is 95 % effective right ?
Effective at what @ @ @ @ @ chairman clearly states… 'We 're not sure if someone can transmit the virus after vaccination @ @

We have all seen the news that the Pfizer COVID vaccine is 95% effective right?
Effective at what exactly?
Reducing symptoms of a disease with a 99+% survival rate?
Here the Pfizer chairman clearly states…
'We're not sure if someone can transmit the virus after vaccination' pic.twitter.com/Ps91uMMZVP
— Spiro (@o_rips) December 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--This is obscene. This man should get down on his knees and thank Jay Powell

This is obscene .
This man should get down on his knees and thank jay powell pic.twitter.com/UqluBjvO35

This is obscene. This man should get down on his knees and thank jay powell pic.twitter.com/UqluBjvO35
— BLACK SWAN – PISSED OFF BEAR (@RetirementRight) December 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--SEC Charges The Cheesecake Factory For Misleading COVID-19 Disclosures

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced settled charges against The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated for making misleading disclosures about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its business operations and financial condition .
The action is the SEC ’ s first charging a public company for misleading investors about the financial effects of the pandemic .
As set forth in the SEC ’ s order , in its SEC filings on March 23 and April 3 , 2020 , The Cheesecake Factory stated that its restaurants were “ operating sustainably ” during the COVID-19 pandemic .
According to the order @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misleading because the company ’ s internal documents at the time showed that the company was losing approximately $ 6 million in cash per week and that it projected that it had only 16 weeks of cash remaining .
The order finds that although the company did not disclose this internal information in its March 23 and April 3 filings , the company did share this information with potential private equity investors or lenders in connection with an effort to seek additional liquidity .
The order also finds that , although the March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undertaken to preserve financial flexibility during the pandemic , it failed to disclose that The Cheesecake Factory had already informed its landlords that it would not pay rent in April due to the impacts that COVID-19 inflicted on itsbusiness .

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced settled charges against The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated for making misleading disclosures about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its business operations and financial condition. The action is the SEC’s first charging a public company for misleading investors about the financial effects of the pandemic.
As set forth in the SEC’s order, in its SEC filings on March 23 and April 3, 2020, The Cheesecake Factory stated that its restaurants were “operating sustainably” during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the order, the filings were materially false and misleading because the company’s internal documents at the time showed that the company was losing approximately $6 million in cash per week and that it projected that it had only 16 weeks of cash remaining. The order finds that although the company did not disclose this internal information in its March 23 and April 3 filings, the company did share this information with potential private equity investors or lenders in connection with an effort to seek additional liquidity. The order also finds that, although the March 23 filing described actions the company had undertaken to preserve financial flexibility during the pandemic, it failed to disclose that The Cheesecake Factory had already informed its landlords that it would not pay rent in April due to the impacts that COVID-19 inflicted on itsbusiness.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--GEORGIA has a website in CHINA with Kemp on it asking for money

2 .
If you play the video , Gov .
Kemp gives this message w Chinese subtitles : '' China @ @ @ @ @ imports and our 3rd largest exports market .
We welcome thousands of Chinese visitors each @ @ @ @ @ '' – Governor Brian Kemp The video has no English subtitles .
pic.twitter.com/wfWBilBvTv

2. If you play the video, Gov. Kemp gives this message w Chinese subtitles:
"China is a TOP source for imports and our 3rd largest exports market. We welcome thousands of Chinese visitors each year to the Peach State…"
– Governor Brian Kemp
The video has no English subtitles. pic.twitter.com/wfWBilBvTv
— Blue Canaries (@CanariesBlue) December 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--How can NPR, CNN, and the rest of the MSM state “Trump’s baseless claims of voting fraud” when this

How can NPR, CNN, and the rest of the MSM state “Trump’s baseless claims of voting fraud” when this video exists?

The state of Georgia was flipped by the votes counted that night .
The observers were told to leave at @ @ @ @ @ ABC news .
Archived version here .
Later in the night , Regina Waller , @ @ @ @ @ manager for elections , told ABC News that the election department sent the State Farm @ @ @ @ @ at 10:30 p.m. despite earlier intentions to complete processing Tuesday night .
Some additional numbers @ @ @ @ @ night , but as of now the staff will be back at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ clear , four workers pulled boxes of ballots out from under a table where they @ @ @ @ @ They furiously counted the votes until 1am , completely unobserved , after telling observers and @ @ @ @ @ stopped and would resume at 8:30am ( see the ABC story ) .
This is @ @ @ @ @ law .
Again , these votes flipped the state for Biden .
Yet NPR , @ @ @ @ @ talking about “ baseless claims ” .

by some_crypto_guy
360 video of the fraud.
The state of Georgia was flipped by the votes counted that night.
The observers were told to leave at 10:30pm, confirmed live by ABC news. Archived version here.
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Later in the night, Regina Waller, the Fulton County public affairs manager for elections, told ABC News that the election department sent the State Farm Arena absentee ballot counters home at 10:30 p.m. despite earlier intentions to complete processing Tuesday night. Some additional numbers could still come out Tuesday night, but as of now the staff will be back at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.
After the coast was clear, four workers pulled boxes of ballots out from under a table where they were concealed all day.
They furiously counted the votes until 1am, completely unobserved, after telling observers and the press that counting had stopped and would resume at 8:30am (see the ABC story). This is a clear violation of Georgia law.
Again, these votes flipped the state for Biden.
Yet NPR, CNN and the rest keep talking about “baseless claims”.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--Doordash (DASH) IPO S1 Filing Summary

Doordash (DASH) IPO S1 Filing Summary

Hopefully it will be useful to everyone since Doordash IPO is next week .
• Expect cost to increase over @ @ @ @ @ • Potential reclassification of Dashers as employees instead of independent contractors • Has the largest @ @ @ @ @ ( Sep 30 2020 ) : Doordash : 50 % , Uber Eats : 33 @ @ @ @ @ % • Huge market opportunity : US consumers on Doordash platform is less than 6 @ @ @ @ @ .
Gross order value ( GOV ) of Doordash is less than 3 % of @ @ @ @ @ other consumer foodservices in the US .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational @ @ @ @ @ any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due @ @ @ @ @ professional before making any investment decision .

by learner4f
Here is a video summarizes Doordash IPO S1 Filing.
Hopefully it will be useful to everyone since Doordash IPO is next week.
#’s of class A shares offered: 33M
IPO price: $75-$85/share
IPO date: Dec 8 2020
Ticker symbol: DASH
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Risk Factor:
Incurred net loss every year since inception Net losses: $667M (2019), $149M (Sep 30 2020) Expect cost to increase over time and loss will continue Competitors: Uber Eats, Grubhub Potential reclassification of Dashers as employees instead of independent contractors
Upside:
18M consumers, 390k merchants, 1M Dashers Has the largest market share in the US (Sep 30 2020): Doordash: 50%, Uber Eats: 33%, Grubhub: 16% Huge market opportunity: US consumers on Doordash platform is less than 6% of total US population. Gross order value (GOV) of Doordash is less than 3% of off-premise spend at restaurants and other consumer foodservices in the US. Growing revenue: $885M (2019), $1.9B (Sep 30 2020).
Lock-up Agreement: (discussed in the video).
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-07--VACCINE: If you think you knew it all.. Think again!

So a lady friend of mine just send me this .
This is why they will want to give everyone @ @ @ @ @ will be probably one of the most important watch a video moments in your life @ @ @ @ @ speaks to cadets and faculty at West Point about a range of topics , including @ @ @ @ @ the science of humans at war .
Dr. Morgan ’ s neurobiological and forensic research @ @ @ @ @ international expert in post-traumatic stress disorder , Here is the full video

So a lady friend of mine just send me this.
I’m blown away !
This is why they will want to give everyone the mRNA vaccine.
Please watch carefully!!
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This will be probably one of the most important watch a video moments in your life time.
I suggest everyone watch this and the full hour video linked.
Be vigilant and pay attention.
This technology is available today. pic.twitter.com/vvLMnF7XAY — Wait_What_Memes Kodak (@wait_what_memes) November 23, 2020
Dr. Charles Morgan speaks to cadets and faculty at West Point about a range of topics, including psychology, neurobiology, and the science of humans at war. Dr. Morgan’s neurobiological and forensic research has established him as an international expert in post-traumatic stress disorder,
Here is the full video
h/t Neo


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-06--Waiting on Confirmation That Lows Are in Place

Rather than go through the various reasons why I believed a low was close , below are some of the tweets I posted over the past week : Gold bottomed on November 30 .
At least , that is how it looks so far .
I still maintain that we need to see a break of former support , now resistance , at 1860 to signal the bottom is in place .
Confirmation above 1900 and 1966 in particular are the closest we ’ ll get to certainty .
In the meantime , I am looking for the top of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be in place at 1847 or we could see a test of 1860 first before falling back .
In the absence of any major technical support levels , we must turn to Fibonacci as a guide for where the next higher low could be : Any one of these could provide the higher low we are looking for , but my preference is for around 1800 , the 61.8 % retracement , as highlighted above .
Frankly as long as we remain above 1767 , then I am agnostic to what price Gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that point , we would have our wave 2 in place , following wave 1 .
However , we would still need to see a break of 1860 or higher depending on what the peak of wave 1 turns out to be .
If this scenario plays out as described , then we ’ re likely heading up to new highs .
On the contrary , below 1767 and it ’ s back to the drawing board .
But 1767 just happens to be the 50 % retracement of the entire rally from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2089 .
Silver is a slightly different animal , as it fell in March to its lowest level since April 2009 .
Gold did not .
Silver has also not broken its prior low on September 24 at 21.81 , although I do not rule out that possibility yet .
The key resistance on the upside in Silver is 26.14 , the prior high on November 9 .
A break there would indicate the bottom is in place and new highs are on the way .
Ahead of that , Silver has run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average around 24.15 .
If its peak at 24.45 holds , then these are the levels I am monitoring in Silver for the higher low to follow : Again , a break below 21.96 and all bets are off .
We got the fake breakout to the upside in November and now the forecasted fake breakout to the downside .
While the risk of a lower low to 31 remains , a break above the prior high of 36.35 back on November 20 should signal the all-clear to the upside .
But I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pullback ahead of that to around mid to low 34 .
SILJ , like its bigger brother Silver , has not broken down below its low on September 24 at 12.80 .
It has since established a double higher low at 13.08-13.10 .
I am now looking for a peak and retracement to anywhere above 13.10 , a higher low , followed by a higher high above the previous peak .
At the end of the day , what I am looking for is a peak followed by a higher low then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prior peak , i.e.
, a higher high , signaling the all clear for the move up to new highs across the precious metals and miners complex .
Stepping back to the bigger picture , we got this headline today : S & P Hits Record , Dow Soars Over 30,000 After McConnell Says “ We Can Do This… Compromise Within Reach ” As I have said since July , when we get new and sizeable fiscal stimulus quickly followed by more monetary stimulus , just as we did in March , precious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to new highs .
It looks like we ’ re close from a technical , sentiment , Elliot Wave , and fundamental perspective .
This isn ’ t hurting either

by David Brady via Sprott Money
Rather than go through the various reasons why I believed a low was close, below are some of the tweets I posted over the past week:
Gold bottomed on November 30. At least, that is how it looks so far.
I still maintain that we need to see a break of former support, now resistance, at 1860 to signal the bottom is in place. Confirmation above 1900 and 1966 in particular are the closest we’ll get to certainty.
In the meantime, I am looking for the top of this nascent rally. It may already be in place at 1847 or we could see a test of 1860 first before falling back. In the absence of any major technical support levels, we must turn to Fibonacci as a guide for where the next higher low could be:
Any one of these could provide the higher low we are looking for, but my preference is for around 1800, the 61.8% retracement, as highlighted above. Frankly as long as we remain above 1767, then I am agnostic to what price Gold decides to turn up from. At that point, we would have our wave 2 in place, following wave 1. However, we would still need to see a break of 1860 or higher depending on what the peak of wave 1 turns out to be. If this scenario plays out as described, then we’re likely heading up to new highs.
On the contrary, below 1767 and it’s back to the drawing board. But 1767 just happens to be the 50% retracement of the entire rally from 1451 in March to the peak of 2089.
SILVER
Silver is a slightly different animal, as it fell in March to its lowest level since April 2009. Gold did not. Silver has also not broken its prior low on September 24 at 21.81, although I do not rule out that possibility yet.
The key resistance on the upside in Silver is 26.14, the prior high on November 9. A break there would indicate the bottom is in place and new highs are on the way.
Ahead of that, Silver has run into resistance at its 50 day moving average around 24.15. If its peak at 24.45 holds, then these are the levels I am monitoring in Silver for the higher low to follow:
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Again, a break below 21.96 and all bets are off.
GDX
We got the fake breakout to the upside in November and now the forecasted fake breakout to the downside. While the risk of a lower low to 31 remains, a break above the prior high of 36.35 back on November 20 should signal the all-clear to the upside. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback ahead of that to around mid to low 34.
SILJ
SILJ, like its bigger brother Silver, has not broken down below its low on September 24 at 12.80. It has since established a double higher low at 13.08-13.10. I am now looking for a peak and retracement to anywhere above 13.10, a higher low, followed by a higher high above the previous peak.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, what I am looking for is a peak followed by a higher low then follow thru to the upside breaking the prior peak, i.e., a higher high, signaling the all clear for the move up to new highs across the precious metals and miners complex.
Stepping back to the bigger picture, we got this headline today:
S&P Hits Record, Dow Soars Over 30,000 After McConnell Says “We Can Do This… Compromise Within Reach”
As I have said since July, when we get new and sizeable fiscal stimulus quickly followed by more monetary stimulus, just as we did in March, precious metals and miners will take off again to new highs. It looks like we’re close from a technical, sentiment, Elliot Wave, and fundamental perspective. This isn’t hurting either


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-06--The war pigs need you under control while they do their thing.

Just so you know .
Not saying the military isn ’ t on your side , but… The people behind @ @ @ @ @ ) …they don ’ t give AF about you .
The rank and file military @ @ @ @ @ in charge for the most part .
The military is run by careerist aholes that @ @ @ @ @ much different from their globalist tool partners in crime , the politicians .
And , @ @ @ @ @ banksters are the paymasters .
Think about that .

Just so you know.
Not saying the military isn’t on your side, but…
The people behind them…the war pigs (MIC)…they don’t give AF about you.
The rank and file military are patriotic…but they are not in charge for the most part.
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The military is run by careerist aholes that aren’t all that much different from their globalist tool partners in crime, the politicians.
And, in the end, the banksters are the paymasters.
Think about that.
h/t Builder