investmentwatchblog--2020-05-14--WHISTLEBLOWER OF DOOM! USA FACES ‘DARKEST WINTER’

WH whistleblower warns this winter will be ‘ darkest in modern history ’ if US doesn ’ t step up COVID response A WHITE House whistleblower has warned that this winter will be the “ darkest in modern history ” if the United States doesn ’ t step up its coronavirus response .
Dr Rick Bright is set to testify before Congress on Thursday about the Trump administration ’ s handling of the pandemic .
In a prepared three-page testimony , the scientist wrote : “ Our window of opportunity is closing .
If we fail to develop a national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged , causing unprecedented illness and fatalities .
“ While it is terrifying to acknowledge the extent of the challenge that we currently confront , the undeniable fact is there will be a resurgence of the COVID19 this fall , greatly compounding the challenges of seasonal influenza and putting an unprecedented strain on our health care system .
“ Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined , 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ removed from his job in April , said in a whistleblower complaint last week that he raised concerns about the virus to the Trump administration in January .

‘WINDOW CLOSING’
WH whistleblower warns this winter will be ‘darkest in modern history’ if US doesn’t step up COVID response
A WHITE House whistleblower has warned that this winter will be the “darkest in modern history” if the United States doesn’t step up its coronavirus response.
Dr Rick Bright is set to testify before Congress on Thursday about the Trump administration’s handling of the pandemic.
In a prepared three-page testimony, the scientist wrote: “Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities.
“While it is terrifying to acknowledge the extent of the challenge that we currently confront, the undeniable fact is there will be a resurgence of the COVID19 this fall, greatly compounding the challenges of seasonal influenza and putting an unprecedented strain on our health care system.
“Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history.”
The vaccine expert, who was removed from his job in April, said in a whistleblower complaint last week that he raised concerns about the virus to the Trump administration in January.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Biden’s Handlers Getting Nervous

Biden’s Handlers Getting Nervous

To be fair , attacking reporters has always been a key element of Joe Biden ’ s style : UPDATE @ @ @ @ @ , fellow kids ?
Joe Biden Goes on “ Youth ” Oriented Snapchat Show , @ @ @ @ @ : Biden campaign deleted the tweet .
Does that mean [ Herridge ’ s ] @ @ @ @ @ UPDATE : Biden campaign deleted the tweet .
Does that mean [ Herridge ’ s @ @ @ @ @ ”

twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1260667101037150211
To be fair, attacking reporters has always been a key element of Joe Biden’s style:
UPDATE: How do you do, fellow kids? Joe Biden Goes on “Youth” Oriented Snapchat Show, Gets Relentlessly Clowned.
Related: Biden’s rhetoric, versus his staff’s:
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UPDATE: Biden campaign deleted the tweet. Does that mean [Herridge’s] reporting stands then?”
So will @JoeBiden fire his rapid-response guy for failing to live up to his professed standard? pic.twitter.com/FQJLXksxZC — Kyle Smith (@rkylesmith) May 13, 2020
UPDATE: Biden campaign deleted the tweet. Does that mean [Herridge’s] reporting stands then?”
h/t ED


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--THE PRESS, BY NATURE, IS LAZY, CONDESCENDING, AND AUTHORITARIAN:

Go to the link to see the county-by-county map — “ Where people started leaving home again/Percentage point change in the share of people staying home.
” How does the NYT know this ?
It uses data from Cuebiq , which takes “ a representative sample of about 15 million smartphone users nationwide who have agreed to share their location data with certain apps.
” It ’ s not snooping on you .
You agreed !
With certain apps .
Quite aside from that invasion of our privacy — by our lax acceptance of the demands of apps — there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re violating our state governments ’ orders if we do not stay home .
But where are we required to stay home ?
Not here in Wisconsin .
We ’ re free to leave the house .
It really irritates me to hear mainstream news and commentary speaking of a requirement to stay home .
The requirement is social distancing !
Maybe in New York City , you need to stay home to avoid violating the strictures of social distancing , but that ’ s not true in most of the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ walks or go food shopping , they ’ re not disregarding orders .
Whether people are thinking for themselves and following their own ideas about how much social distancing they want or need instead of following orders — that ’ s another matter entirely .
And I don ’ t think the certain apps are measuring that .

via althouse
Go to the link to see the county-by-county map — “Where people started leaving home again/Percentage point change in the share of people staying home.” How does the NYT know this? It uses data from Cuebiq, which takes “a representative sample of about 15 million smartphone users nationwide who have agreed to share their location data with certain apps.” It’s not snooping on you. You agreed! With certain apps.
Quite aside from that invasion of our privacy — by our lax acceptance of the demands of apps — there’s the insinuation that we’re violating our state governments’ orders if we do not stay home. But where are we required to stay home? Not here in Wisconsin. We’re free to leave the house. It really irritates me to hear mainstream news and commentary speaking of a requirement to stay home. The requirement is social distancing! Maybe in New York City, you need to stay home to avoid violating the strictures of social distancing, but that’s not true in most of the country. If people are leaving home to take walks or go food shopping, they’re not disregarding orders.
Whether people are thinking for themselves and following their own ideas about how much social distancing they want or need instead of following orders — that’s another matter entirely. And I don’t think the certain apps are measuring that.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--WA Governor To Residents: COVID-Test-Deniers Will Not Be Allowed To Leave Home To Get Groceries

At his May 12 press conference , Washington State Governor Jay Inslee laid out the plans for the statewide contact tracing initiative .
“ [ The initiative ] is robust , it is vigorous and it is comprehensive , and it needs to be all three to be successful , ” Inslee said .
“ If we do not succeed in this second stage of our efforts , this virus could come bright back and bite us.
” As LynnwoodTimes.com ’ s Luke Putvin notes , the information Inslee provided was labeled as “ Contact Tracing : Box in The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ follows : Contact tracing involves interviewing people with positive COVID-19 tests to identify who they ’ ve been in contact with , getting those people tested and then making sure they isolate themselves and their families .
As the press conference went on , one question kept coming up – what about enforcement ?
How will you ensure Washington State residents comply and what if they don ’ t ?
The answer is as scary as many have worried about .
As Putvin reports , for those businesses/individuals that don ’ t comply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Attorney General Bob Ferguson , there will be sanctions in civil or crimal court .

At his May 12 press conference, Washington State Governor Jay Inslee laid out the plans for the statewide contact tracing initiative.
“[The initiative] is robust, it is vigorous and it is comprehensive, and it needs to be all three to be successful,” Inslee said. “If we do not succeed in this second stage of our efforts, this virus could come bright back and bite us.”
As LynnwoodTimes.com’s Luke Putvin notes, the information Inslee provided was labeled as “Contact Tracing: Box in The Virus.” The steps were listed as follows:
Contact tracing involves interviewing people with positive COVID-19 tests to identify who they’ve been in contact with, getting those people tested and then making sure they isolate themselves and their families.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As the press conference went on, one question kept coming up – what about enforcement? How will you ensure Washington State residents comply and what if they don’t?
The answer is as scary as many have worried about. As Putvin reports, for those businesses/individuals that don’t comply, the governor stated that he confirmed with Attorney General Bob Ferguson, there will be sanctions in civil or crimal court.
www.zerohedge.com/health/nj-governor-residents-covid-test-deniers-will-not-be-allowed-leave-home-get-groceries


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--President Trump: “The whole thing was corrupt and we caught them…” #OBAMAGATE

Rand Paul : Biden Caught Red-Handed Using Spying Powers of The U.S. To Go After a Political Opponent Top Obama administration officials purportedly requested to “ unmask ” the identity of former national security adviser Michael Flynn during the presidential transition period , according to a list of names from that controversial process made public on Wednesday .
The list was declassified in recent days by Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell and then sent to GOP Sens .
Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson , who made the documents public .
The roster features top-ranking figures including then-Vice President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raised by the Trump campaign in the bare-knuckle 2020 presidential race where Biden is now the Democrats ’ presumptive nominee .
The list also includes then-FBI Director James Comey , then-CIA Director John Brennan , then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper , and Obama ’ s then-chief of staff Denis McDonough .
NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY , BUT A CONSPIRACY : ‘ Obamagate ’ Isn ’ t A Conspiracy Theory , It ’ s The Biggest Political Scandal Of Our Time : And the media know it .
They know it , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best to make sure as few other people as possible understand it .

Rand Paul: Biden Caught Red-Handed Using Spying Powers of The U.S. To Go After a Political Opponent
Top Obama administration officials purportedly requested to “unmask” the identity of former national security adviser Michael Flynn during the presidential transition period, according to a list of names from that controversial process made public on Wednesday.
The list was declassified in recent days by Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell and then sent to GOP Sens. Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson, who made the documents public. The roster features top-ranking figures including then-Vice President Joe Biden — a detail already being raised by the Trump campaign in the bare-knuckle 2020 presidential race where Biden is now the Democrats’ presumptive nominee.
The list also includes then-FBI Director James Comey, then-CIA Director John Brennan, then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and Obama’s then-chief of staff Denis McDonough.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Fear, Isolation, Depression: Mental Health Fallout Of Worldwide Pandemic…  More Americans Turning To

Fear, Isolation, Depression: Mental Health Fallout Of Worldwide Pandemic…  More Americans Turning To Drugs And Alcohol

At Provident Behavioral Health in St. Louis , people who called the helpline at the beginning of the pandemic were fearful , even panicked .
“ Nearly everyone expressed fear .
Fear of catching the virus , fear of the future , fear of the unknown and fear of not knowing how to cope with their feelings , ” said Jessica Vance , who manages the Disaster Distress Helpline at Provident .
Now people ’ s calls and texts , which have leveled off in the past couple of weeks , are more about their isolation and depression .
Nationwide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the first lines of defense for many people feeling jittery during a crisis , offer an early picture of how Americans are coping with the coronavirus pandemic .
Many crisis centers are reporting 30 % to 40 % increases in the number of people seeking help .
The helpline at Provident is experiencing a tenfold increase compared with this time last year , when no national disaster was occurring .
So far , the nation ’ s most heavily used helpline , the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline , has not seen a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health experts predict an avalanche of mental health needs as the pandemic progresses .

Fear, Isolation, Depression: The Mental Health Fallout of a Worldwide Pandemic
At Provident Behavioral Health in St. Louis, people who called the helpline at the beginning of the pandemic were fearful, even panicked.
“Nearly everyone expressed fear. Fear of catching the virus, fear of the future, fear of the unknown and fear of not knowing how to cope with their feelings,” said Jessica Vance, who manages the Disaster Distress Helpline at Provident.
Now people’s calls and texts, which have leveled off in the past couple of weeks, are more about their isolation and depression.
Nationwide, mental health call and text centers, the first lines of defense for many people feeling jittery during a crisis, offer an early picture of how Americans are coping with the coronavirus pandemic.
Many crisis centers are reporting 30% to 40% increases in the number of people seeking help. The helpline at Provident is experiencing a tenfold increase compared with this time last year, when no national disaster was occurring. So far, the nation’s most heavily used helpline, the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, has not seen a spike in call volume.
But mental health experts predict an avalanche of mental health needs as the pandemic progresses.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--American Airlines Stock Hits New Low…  Group Sees Virus Hurting Travel For At Least Five Years

Airline Group Sees Virus Hurting Travel for at Least Five Years Demand for air travel will lag behind pre-coronavirus forecasts @ @ @ @ @ years , according to the latest projections from the International Air Transport Association .
Global @ @ @ @ @ of passengers carried times the distance flown , will still be about 10 % below @ @ @ @ @ Brian Pearce , the trade group ’ s chief economist , said in a media @ @ @ @ @ year will be down between a third and two-fifths from projections made prior to the @ @ @ @ @ , which doesn ’ t see travel recovering to last year ’ s levels until @ @ @ @ @ Pearce said he expected a rebound in demand to come about two years after an @ @ @ @ @ due to the increased inconvenience of travel .

www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=aal&qsearchterm=aal
Airline Group Sees Virus Hurting Travel for at Least Five Years
Demand for air travel will lag behind pre-coronavirus forecasts for at least five more years, according to the latest projections from the International Air Transport Association.
Global traffic, or the number of passengers carried times the distance flown, will still be about 10% below original estimates in 2025, Brian Pearce, the trade group’s chief economist, said in a media briefing Wednesday.
Traffic next year will be down between a third and two-fifths from projections made prior to the pandemic, according to IATA, which doesn’t see travel recovering to last year’s levels until 2023 at the earliest. Pearce said he expected a rebound in demand to come about two years after an upturn in GDP, partly due to the increased inconvenience of travel.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Marcel Arsenault: Beware The “Lazy W”

Marcel Arsenault: Beware The “Lazy W”

Real estate investor Marcel Arsenault has racked up Warren Buffett-scale profits over the past few credit cycles by loading up on “ empty buildings ” at the bottom , filling them with paying tenants , and then selling at the top .
In a recent message to investors , he warns that the current market is especially tricky .
Here ’ s an excerpt : • The U.S. is already experiencing extremely sharp job losses .
• We project 26.9 million jobs lost between March and May , 2020 .
• This implies an unemployment rate of 21.4 % by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1930s .
• Because of the immense economic damage , RCS believes there will be intense political and economic pressure to reopen the economy ( while unprepared ) ; • Businesses rehire , hoping to rebuild lost sales .
• RCS estimates nearly 10.0 million jobs will be regained , lowering the unemployment rate to 15.1 % by August , 2020 .
• This premature “ relapse ” also happened in the 1918 Flu Pandemic .
• Re-opening of the economy without the right programs in place causes a “ second wave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fall .
• States reimplement Shelter-in-Place orders .
• The weakened economy refreezes .
• Weakened businesses capitulate and close permanently .
• By October , 6.9 million jobs will be lost from the premature opening .
Many of these job losses will become persistent .
Conclusions and Implications of Our “ Lazy W ” • The Covid-19 Pandemic is setting the economy back several years .
• By YE 2021 , considerable demand for nearly every sector of the economy will have been permanently destroyed .
• Employment levels by YE 2021 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 .
• It will take until mid-2024 for jobs to recover lost ground .
• Interest rates will stay at historic lows into 2024 .
• With high unemployment , the Fed will have no incentive to raise rates .
• Near-term , unemployment peaks at over 20 % .
• By YE 2024 , the unemployment rate will still be at 6.4 % .
• Asset values that were at peak will decline precipitously .
• Equities and commercial real estate will not hit bottom until late 2021 .
• Home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Real Capital Solutions ( RCS ) believes it is crucial for market participants to keep an open mind to all scenarios and plan defensively .
This scenario is as reasonable as it is scary , especially for the retail investors who have , for some reason , been pouring into stocks lately .
Consider : Young investors pile into stocks , seeing ‘ generational-buying moment ’ instead of risk The coronavirus market downturn spurred young people — in some cases , for the first time in their lives — to get started with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at online brokers show that young and inexperienced investors saw the coronavirus downturn as an entry point into the world of investing and not a time to hunker down .
“ New investors who sense a generational-buying moment but do not have much background in the equity space , ” Citi chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich said in a note to clients .
“ We have heard anecdotally about younger individuals with less market experience viewing the March plunge as a unique time to start portfolios and often crowding into the tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or products they know and use.
” The major online brokers — Charles Schwab , TD Ameritrade , Etrade and Robinhood — saw new accounts grow as much as 170 % in the first quarter , when stocks experienced the fastest bear market and the worst first quarter in history .
But young people apparently saw it as an opportunity and began buying familiar technology stocks .

BY JOHN RUBINO
Real estate investor Marcel Arsenault has racked up Warren Buffett-scale profits over the past few credit cycles by loading up on “empty buildings” at the bottom, filling them with paying tenants, and then selling at the top. In a recent message to investors, he warns that the current market is especially tricky. Here’s an excerpt:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Our Rationale for a Highly Dangerous “Lazy W” • The U.S. is already experiencing extremely sharp job losses.
• We project 26.9 million jobs lost between March and May, 2020.
• This implies an unemployment rate of 21.4% by May, 2020 – the highest since the 1930s.
• Because of the immense economic damage, RCS believes there will be intense political and economic pressure to reopen the economy (while unprepared);
• Businesses rehire, hoping to rebuild lost sales.
• RCS estimates nearly 10.0 million jobs will be regained, lowering the unemployment rate to 15.1% by August, 2020.
• This premature “relapse” also happened in the 1918 Flu Pandemic.
• Re-opening of the economy without the right programs in place causes a “second wave” of new Covid-19 cases in the Fall.
• States reimplement Shelter-in-Place orders.
• The weakened economy refreezes.
• Weakened businesses capitulate and close permanently.
• By October, 6.9 million jobs will be lost from the premature opening.
Many of these job losses will become persistent. Conclusions and Implications of Our “Lazy W”
• The Covid-19 Pandemic is setting the economy back several years.
• By YE 2021, considerable demand for nearly every sector of the economy will have been permanently destroyed.
• Employment levels by YE 2021 will be roughly the same as YE 2015.
• It will take until mid-2024 for jobs to recover lost ground.
• Interest rates will stay at historic lows into 2024.
• With high unemployment, the Fed will have no incentive to raise rates.
• Near-term, unemployment peaks at over 20%.
• By YE 2024, the unemployment rate will still be at 6.4%.
• Asset values that were at peak will decline precipitously.
• Equities and commercial real estate will not hit bottom until late 2021.
• Home values will hold up comparatively well. Real Capital Solutions (RCS) believes it is crucial for market participants to keep an open mind to all scenarios and plan defensively.
This scenario is as reasonable as it is scary, especially for the retail investors who have, for some reason, been pouring into stocks lately. Consider:
Young investors pile into stocks, seeing ‘generational-buying moment’ instead of risk The coronavirus market downturn spurred young people — in some cases, for the first time in their lives — to get started with investing. A spike in new accounts at online brokers show that young and inexperienced investors saw the coronavirus downturn as an entry point into the world of investing and not a time to hunker down. “New investors who sense a generational-buying moment but do not have much background in the equity space,” Citi chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich said in a note to clients. “We have heard anecdotally about younger individuals with less market experience viewing the March plunge as a unique time to start portfolios and often crowding into the tech arena, purchasing the stocks whose services or products they know and use.” The major online brokers — Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Etrade and Robinhood — saw new accounts grow as much as 170% in the first quarter, when stocks experienced the fastest bear market and the worst first quarter in history. But young people apparently saw it as an opportunity and began buying familiar technology stocks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Total Catastrophe Of The Currency System

As the Nasdaq makes a new high for the year , the world outside the stock market timebomb is falling apart .
For example the UN agency , The International Labour Organisation ( ILO ) reports that 1.6 billion jobs are at risk in the global economy .
That is half of the global workforce of 3.3 billion .
Particularly vulnerable are the 2 billion people in the informal economy .
For most of these vulnerable people , this means no income , no food and no security reports the ILO .
This is a human tragedy on a massive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world are totally unaware .
Looking at the UK , 23 million people which is half of all adults are now paid by the state .
This includes people being furloughed , on unemployment benefits and public sector workers and pensioners .
That is just an incredible proportion of the population which are getting free money for making no productive contribution .
Yes , the human side is of course incredibly important and suffering people should be helped .
The problem is only that THERE IS NO MONEY .
What half of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t exist but is just printed out of thin air and thus has no real value .
If we take the US , Q2 GDP is forecast at -35 % .
Over 20 million have lost their jobs and both small and big businesses are going into a black hole .
Most of these 20 million have no savings and couldn ’ t survive for one month without government handouts .
If we take the real US unemployment figure based on ShawdowStats , it is now 39 % .
If we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the depression in the 1930s , it is a staggering figure .
If the world , as I believe , has now entered a secular downturn of major proportions , many of these 20 million will never get their jobs back .
That either means no income , no food , and nowhere to live or the government assisting these people permanently .
Both of these outcomes will lead to perdition .
No income means misery , disease and eventually a lot of people dying .
Money printing is sadly no solution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a larger scale , the currency will be totally debased , become worthless with hyperinflation to follow .
Just look at Venezuela with a major part of the population struggling to survive .
THERE IS NO SOLUTION This is what is so sad with the current economic crisis – there is no solution .
Nobody should believe that it is the Coronavirus that has caused this catastrophe for the world .
CV was the catalyst but the underlying problems have been there for a long time .
The Great Financial Crisis in 2006-9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money printing but it was never solved .
The GFC was only a rehearsal and now the world is facing the inevitable collapse of the financial system .
That there was something rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark the World became crystal clear in the late summer and early autumn of 2019 .
The ECB then made it clear for a second time that they will do whatever it takes .
And then the Fed started with daily and weekly Repos of $ 100s of millions .
We have never been told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actions but it is totally clear that the financial system is crumbling under the burden of massive debts and derivatives .
And then in February-March this year the most horrible catalyst in the form of a pandemic hit a fragile world economy at the worst possible moment .
In my opinion , the world economy , lumbered with debts and deficits , would have crashed without the Coronavirus .
But CV makes the problem much bigger and will cause the economic collapse to happen much faster .
What central banks around the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference when it comes to saving the world economy .
You can not solve a debt problem with more debt .
The bankers have managed for some time to fool the world that creating money out of thin air can create wealth .
But the world will very soon realise that it can ’ t .
Global debt has more than doubled since the last crisis started .
It was $ 125 trillion in 2006 and now global debt is over $ 270 trillion .
With the current money printing that figure will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase by $ 100s of trillions .
It is totally incomprehensible that stock market investors have for 7 weeks been buying the dip in the light of the world collapsing around them .
They seem to be totally oblivious to the world economy .
Instead they are just focusing on the injection of liquidity in the form of worthless money .
These investors seem to believe that finance stands above everything else and is totally detached from what is happening in the real world .
It seems that these investors believe there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is finance and money printing .
The worse the economy turns , the more money is printed and stock market investors love it .
This is why the Nasdaq Composite has just made a new high for the year .
This is just unreal .
The world economy is totally paralysed but who cares when you have money printers who can just create trillions out of thin air .
And who cares about companies making profits when central banks can create all the money the world needs .
So it is really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is booming and causing all this euphoria in stock markets .
To make money in the stock market you don ’ t need companies producing goods .
All you need is a friendly central banker who keeps on printing .
Or at least until now !
What these investors don ’ t realise is that “ there is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion ” .
This is what the wise Austrian economist von Mises said .
I urge you to read his words @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now printing more money which makes it clear that we won ’ t see a voluntary abandonment of credit expansion Instead , the world is now in the final stage of credit expansion which will lead to hyperinflation and “ total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
” So what is going to be the likely effect on markets in the coming weeks and months : The irrational exuberance in stocks is soon coming to an end .
It could end next week or last another couple of weeks .
But whenever it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a shock for investors and be at least as bad as the initial fall .
Long term we are looking at stocks collapsing more than 95 % in real terms .
Let ’ s just look at the Dow/Gold ratio which topped in 1999 at 45 and is now 13.7 .
This ratio has been in a correction up since 2011 but has now resumed the downtrend .
This correction is very similar to the correction in the 1970s .
See the red arrows below in the graph .
What makes this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the moves .
Since the creation of the Fed in 1913 and the closing of the gold windows by most countries ( the US being the last in 1971 ) , the chart is showing major swings and tops and bottoms are much more exaggerated than before 1913 .
This is caused by the constant interference of central banks and their manipulation of markets .
There are no real markets today .
Prices are set in a casino that has little resemblance with reality .
The credit expansion and fake money has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instruments .
If you don ’ t believe that , just wait to see what will happen next in markets .
As the Dow/Gold chart shows above , the next target in the ratio is likely to be 0.5:1 or lower .
In 1980 it was 1:1 ( Dow 850 and Gold $ 850 ) .
The trend line is now at 0.5 which means that the Dow is likely to fall by at least 96 % vs gold in the next few years .
In my view , it could even overshoot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if the Dow only fell to say 10,000 , at a Dow/Gold ratio of 0.5 , that would mean a gold price of $ 20,000 which I believe is very probable , even without high inflation .
Even more interesting is Dow/Silver Ratio .
The Gold/Silver ratio is now over 100 but is in the next few years likely to return below the long term average of 15 .
If we then look at the Dow / Silver ratio this shows how traditional investments will totally collapse against hard assets and especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The chart below shows what a major move we are likely to see .
This ratio is now at 1573 .
In 1980 it was at 17:1 .
If it falls to the long term trend line it could reach 6 .
That is a 99.6 % fall of the Dow vs Silver in the next few years .
That is both spectacular or devastating depending on which side you take .
So silver is likely to outperform most investments in the next few years and lead to enormous gains .
But we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and not for widows and orphans .
We recommend to our investors to hold 20-25 % silver and 75-80 % gold in order to sleep well at night .
Let ’ s say that the Dow declines to 10,000 in the next few years .
With a Dow/Silver ratio of 6 , that would mean a silver price of $ 1,666 .
Certainly not impossible .
Normally the real moves in the metals are always led by silver .
The gold/silver ratio has come down from 126 in mid-March to 110 today and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more strongly very soon .
Silver is now going up slightly faster than gold which is what we want to see when the uptrend in the metals resume .
So I expect a major move up in gold and silver to be imminent .
But as I keep warning investors , you are not holding metals for gains measured in worthless paper money but for financial survival and for protection of your wealth against a collapsing financial system .

by Egon von Greyerz
As the Nasdaq makes a new high for the year, the world outside the stock market timebomb is falling apart. For example the UN agency, The International Labour Organisation (ILO) reports that 1.6 billion jobs are at risk in the global economy. That is half of the global workforce of 3.3 billion. Particularly vulnerable are the 2 billion people in the informal economy. For most of these vulnerable people, this means no income, no food and no security reports the ILO. This is a human tragedy on a massive scale and most people in the Western world are totally unaware.
HALF UK ADULTS PAID BY THE STATE
Looking at the UK, 23 million people which is half of all adults are now paid by the state. This includes people being furloughed, on unemployment benefits and public sector workers and pensioners. That is just an incredible proportion of the population which are getting free money for making no productive contribution. Yes, the human side is of course incredibly important and suffering people should be helped. The problem is only that THERE IS NO MONEY. What half of the adult population is receiving is money that doesn’t exist but is just printed out of thin air and thus has no real value.
REAL US UNEMPLOYMENT 39%
If we take the US, Q2 GDP is forecast at -35%. Over 20 million have lost their jobs and both small and big businesses are going into a black hole. Most of these 20 million have no savings and couldn’t survive for one month without government handouts. If we take the real US unemployment figure based on ShawdowStats, it is now 39%. If we compare that to the 25% unemployment during the depression in the 1930s, it is a staggering figure.
If the world, as I believe, has now entered a secular downturn of major proportions, many of these 20 million will never get their jobs back. That either means no income, no food, and nowhere to live or the government assisting these people permanently. Both of these outcomes will lead to perdition. No income means misery, disease and eventually a lot of people dying. Money printing is sadly no solution either. Once money is printed on a larger scale, the currency will be totally debased, become worthless with hyperinflation to follow. Just look at Venezuela with a major part of the population struggling to survive.
THERE IS NO SOLUTION
This is what is so sad with the current economic crisis – there is no solution. Nobody should believe that it is the Coronavirus that has caused this catastrophe for the world. CV was the catalyst but the underlying problems have been there for a long time. The Great Financial Crisis in 2006-9 was temporarily patched up with trillions of money printing but it was never solved. The GFC was only a rehearsal and now the world is facing the inevitable collapse of the financial system.
CENTRAL BANKS PANICKED IN AUTUMN OF 2019
That there was something rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark the World became crystal clear in the late summer and early autumn of 2019. The ECB then made it clear for a second time that they will do whatever it takes. And then the Fed started with daily and weekly Repos of $100s of millions. We have never been told the reason for these Central Banks’ panic actions but it is totally clear that the financial system is crumbling under the burden of massive debts and derivatives.
And then in February-March this year the most horrible catalyst in the form of a pandemic hit a fragile world economy at the worst possible moment. In my opinion, the world economy, lumbered with debts and deficits, would have crashed without the Coronavirus. But CV makes the problem much bigger and will cause the economic collapse to happen much faster.
What central banks around the world are doing will not make one iota difference when it comes to saving the world economy. You cannot solve a debt problem with more debt. The bankers have managed for some time to fool the world that creating money out of thin air can create wealth. But the world will very soon realise that it can’t. Global debt has more than doubled since the last crisis started. It was $125 trillion in 2006 and now global debt is over $270 trillion. With the current money printing that figure will soon be over $300T and later increase by $100s of trillions.
MISPLACED IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE
It is totally incomprehensible that stock market investors have for 7 weeks been buying the dip in the light of the world collapsing around them. They seem to be totally oblivious to the world economy. Instead they are just focusing on the injection of liquidity in the form of worthless money. These investors seem to believe that finance stands above everything else and is totally detached from what is happening in the real world.
It seems that these investors believe there is only one important sector in the economy which is finance and money printing. The worse the economy turns, the more money is printed and stock market investors love it. This is why the Nasdaq Composite has just made a new high for the year. This is just unreal. The world economy is totally paralysed but who cares when you have money printers who can just create trillions out of thin air.
And who cares about companies making profits when central banks can create all the money the world needs. So it is really fortunate for investors that the money business is booming and causing all this euphoria in stock markets. To make money in the stock market you don’t need companies producing goods. All you need is a friendly central banker who keeps on printing. Or at least until now!
YOU CAN’T AVOID THE FINAL COLLAPSE
What these investors don’t realise is that “there is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion”. This is what the wise Austrian economist von Mises said. I urge you to read his words below:
Central banks and governments are now printing more money which makes it clear that we won’t see a voluntary abandonment of credit expansion
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Instead, the world is now in the final stage of credit expansion which will lead to hyperinflation and “total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
Sadly this is totally unavoidable.
So what is going to be the likely effect on markets in the coming weeks and months:
MARKETS
The irrational exuberance in stocks is soon coming to an end. It could end next week or last another couple of weeks. But whenever it comes, the next fall will come as a shock for investors and be at least as bad as the initial fall. Long term we are looking at stocks collapsing more than 95% in real terms.
GOLD AT $20,000
Let’s just look at the Dow/Gold ratio which topped in 1999 at 45 and is now 13.7. This ratio has been in a correction up since 2011 but has now resumed the downtrend. This correction is very similar to the correction in the 1970s. See the red arrows below in the graph.
What makes this 200-year chart so fascinating is the amplitude of the moves. Since the creation of the Fed in 1913 and the closing of the gold windows by most countries (the US being the last in 1971), the chart is showing major swings and tops and bottoms are much more exaggerated than before 1913. This is caused by the constant interference of central banks and their manipulation of markets. There are no real markets today. Prices are set in a casino that has little resemblance with reality. The credit expansion and fake money has led to fake prices in virtually all instruments. If you don’t believe that, just wait to see what will happen next in markets.
As the Dow/Gold chart shows above, the next target in the ratio is likely to be 0.5:1 or lower. In 1980 it was 1:1 (Dow 850 and Gold $850). The trend line is now at 0.5 which means that the Dow is likely to fall by at least 96% vs gold in the next few years. In my view, it could even overshoot and go a lot lower.
But even if the Dow only fell to say 10,000, at a Dow/Gold ratio of 0.5, that would mean a gold price of $20,000 which I believe is very probable, even without high inflation.
SILVER AT $1,666
Even more interesting is Dow/Silver Ratio. The Gold/Silver ratio is now over 100 but is in the next few years likely to return below the long term average of 15.
If we then look at the Dow / Silver ratio this shows how traditional investments will totally collapse against hard assets and especially against silver which is dramatically undervalued. The chart below shows what a major move we are likely to see. This ratio is now at 1573. In 1980 it was at 17:1. If it falls to the long term trend line it could reach 6. That is a 99.6% fall of the Dow vs Silver in the next few years. That is both spectacular or devastating depending on which side you take. So silver is likely to outperform most investments in the next few years and lead to enormous gains. But we must remember that silver is incredibly volatile and not for widows and orphans. We recommend to our investors to hold 20-25% silver and 75-80% gold in order to sleep well at night.
Let’s say that the Dow declines to 10,000 in the next few years. With a Dow/Silver ratio of 6, that would mean a silver price of $1,666. Certainly not impossible.
Normally the real moves in the metals are always led by silver. The gold/silver ratio has come down from 126 in mid-March to 110 today and looks like it is about to fall more strongly very soon. Silver is now going up slightly faster than gold which is what we want to see when the uptrend in the metals resume.
So I expect a major move up in gold and silver to be imminent. But as I keep warning investors, you are not holding metals for gains measured in worthless paper money but for financial survival and for protection of your wealth against a collapsing financial system.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Central Banks Printed $20 Trillion and Now Own the Markets! Can They Prevent A Collapse?

Do you think that the markets are under siege by the central banks ?
Or are central banks trying to @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a strange situation today , particularly evident in 2020 .
Central banks are @ @ @ @ @ banks are doing things at a different speed , with different nuances .
But let @ @ @ @ @ they print money out of thin air by adding zeros on a computer , buying @ @ @ @ @ , and are very adamant in the public that they ’ re helping the middle @ @ @ @ @ , more realistic possibility… Fed outlines terms for lending program and promises full disclosure on @ @ @ @ @ starting its program to purchase corporate bond ETFs Survey of Consumer Expectations – FEDERAL RESERVE @ @ @ @ @ Rosenberg on Twitter : “ I was so close to turning more bullish ( less @ @ @ @ @ see this metric was released by the New York Fed on consumer expectations .
Since @ @ @ @ @ on record optimism ?
t.co/Gddwl5JDbj ” / Twitter

Do you think that the markets are under siege by the central banks? Or are central banks trying to prevent a collapse?
There’s a strange situation today, particularly evident in 2020. Central banks are buying everything. Different central banks are doing things at a different speed, with different nuances. But let’s face it, they print money out of thin air by adding zeros on a computer, buying assets that do not exist, and are very adamant in the public that they’re helping the middle class. Instead consider another, more realistic possibility…
Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations From Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Central Bank Assets for Euro Area (11-19 Countries) (ECBASSETSW) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBASSETSW
Bank of Japan: Total Assets for Japan (JPNASSETS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNASSETS
Balance Sheets
www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf
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SNB Q1 2020.jpg (1280×871)
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SNB%20Q1%202020.jpg?itok=lyesq8N4
Fed outlines terms for lending program and promises full disclosure on PPP recipients
www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/fed-outlines-terms-for-lending-program-and-promises-full-disclosure-on-ppp-recipients.html
The Fed is starting its program to purchase corporate bond ETFs
www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/the-fed-is-starting-up-its-program-to-purchase-corporate-bond-etfs.html
Survey of Consumer Expectations – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#indicators/household-finance/g33
David Rosenberg on Twitter: “I was so close to turning more bullish (less bearish?) until I see this metric was released by the New York Fed on consumer expectations. Since when do bear markets end on record optimism? t.co/Gddwl5JDbj” / Twitter
twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1247198124994703361


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--WOW! Top Obama Official CONFESSES What She Did on MSNBC – GAME OVER!

Tim Graham from NewsBusters reports , Sean Davis at The Federalist reports a newly declassified transcript of congressional testimony shows @ @ @ @ @ Evelyn Farkas testified under oath that she lied during an MSNBC Morning Joe interview when @ @ @ @ @ of alleged Trump collusion with the Russians .

Tim Graham from NewsBusters reports, Sean Davis at The Federalist reports a newly declassified transcript of congressional testimony shows former Obama administration defense official Evelyn Farkas testified under oath that she lied during an MSNBC Morning Joe interview when she claimed to have evidence of alleged Trump collusion with the Russians.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/…


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--WHOA! President Trump Hints At Fate of DEEP STATER Christopher Wray!

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports , President Trump is not happy with FBI Director Chris Wray and wants @ @ @ @ @ to a report earlier this week by Axios .
President Trump on Friday blasted FBI @ @ @ @ @ phone-in interview with Fox & Friends when discussing the newly released bombshell documents in Flynn @ @ @ @

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports, President Trump is not happy with FBI Director Chris Wray and wants to replace him, according to a report earlier this week by Axios. President Trump on Friday blasted FBI Director Christopher Wray during a phone-in interview with Fox & Friends when discussing the newly released bombshell documents in Flynn’s case.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Comparing Death Rates In Democrat and Republican States From COVID-19

So what states are most effective in preventing death from COVID-19 ?
It seems as though the Republican states are .
Let ’ s take a look .
Consequences of the anti-HCQ Media Operation The situation was aggravated by actions of some state governments , which started restricting access to HCQ for COVID-19 victims .
The Governor of New York outright denied HCQ to COVID-19 victims , except for inpatient treatment and clinical studies .
Physicians felt pressured to postpone HCQ treatment for COVID-19 patients .
Instead of beginning HCQ treatment as early as possible , they postponed its use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Late treatment with HCQ was frequently used as compassionate care for the most desperate causes .
Delaware ’ s HCQ policy illustrates this thinking in late March : “ This drug is used in very limited instances for very critically ill patients with COVID-19 , in a clinical setting.
” This led to statistics in which use of HCQ was correlated with worse outcomes .
Bad actors exploited the correlation-as-causation fallacy to advocate against HCQ .
Apparently , in the early April the medical establishment in the North East ( inclusive of NY @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PA , MD , and DC ) decided against the use of HCQ as a COVID-19 treatment .
Coincidentally or not , this area became the main COVID-19 death cluster , responsible for more than 60 % of the US COVID-19 deaths .
HCQ State Orders Lacking the authority to completely ban doctors from prescribing HCQ , some governors restricted pharmacies from fulfilling prescriptions to COVID-19 patients , but not to other patients .
Notice that the rational policy to deal with shortage would have been to limit dispensed quantities of HCQ to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all patients receive the drug .
The effect of the inverted policy was suffering of COVID-19 victims , stockpiling of the drug by users with 90-day prescriptions , and increased shortages .
New York and Michigan outright banned dispensing HCQ to COVID-19 victims , with rare exceptions , and allowed stockpiling by other users .
Apparently , when pharmacies in New York ran out of HCQ , lupus patients raided neighboring states .
Some states did not ban , but created obstacles for COVID-19 victims , like the requirement that the patient tested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of tests was limited ) .
In the best case , the result was delay of HCQ treatment , sharply decreasing its anti-viral efficiency .
NY ’ s policy on HCQ fulfillment was probably the worst ( score : 10 ) : No pharmacist shall dispense hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine except when written as prescribed for an FDA-approved indication ; or as part of a state approved clinical trial related to COVID-19 for a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19 , with such test result documented as part of the prescription .
No @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permitted , and any permitted prescription is limited to one fourteen-day prescription with no refills .
The result of banning the use of Hydroxychloroquine in those states was a very high death rate : This map shows the states with higher than average US COVID-19 mortality rates .
Darker red indicates states with more than 500 deaths per million .
Lighter red indicates more than US average , or 250-500 deaths per million .
New York , a few surrounding states , and DC create a cluster , which accounts for more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This can not be explained by residents ’ traffic .
While people from NJ and CT commute to NYC , there is not much regular traffic between NY and MA or PA .
It is likely that the unreasonable HCQ policies in NY and NJ caused shortages of HCQ , which spilled over to the neighboring states .
This suggests that lack of HCQ for COVID-19 patients was a factor in increasing COVID-19 mortality rates .

by Natura Naturans
So what states are most effective in preventing death from COVID-19? It seems as though the Republican states are. Let’s take a look.
Consequences of the anti-HCQ Media Operation
The situation was aggravated by actions of some state governments, which started restricting access to HCQ for COVID-19 victims. The Governor of New York outright denied HCQ to COVID-19 victims, except for inpatient treatment and clinical studies. Physicians felt pressured to postpone HCQ treatment for COVID-19 patients. Instead of beginning HCQ treatment as early as possible, they postponed its use the late stages of the disease.
Late treatment with HCQ was frequently used as compassionate care for the most desperate causes. Delaware’s HCQ policy illustrates this thinking in late March: “This drug is used in very limited instances for very critically ill patients with COVID-19, in a clinical setting.” This led to statistics in which use of HCQ was correlated with worse outcomes. Bad actors exploited the correlation-as-causation fallacy to advocate against HCQ.
Apparently, in the early April the medical establishment in the North East (inclusive of NY, NJ, MA, CT, PA, MD, and DC) decided against the use of HCQ as a COVID-19 treatment. Coincidentally or not, this area became the main COVID-19 death cluster, responsible for more than 60% of the US COVID-19 deaths.
HCQ State Orders
Lacking the authority to completely ban doctors from prescribing HCQ, some governors restricted pharmacies from fulfilling prescriptions to COVID-19 patients, but not to other patients. Notice that the rational policy to deal with shortage would have been to limit dispensed quantities of HCQ to everyone. This would have ensured that all patients receive the drug. The effect of the inverted policy was suffering of COVID-19 victims, stockpiling of the drug by users with 90-day prescriptions, and increased shortages. New York and Michigan outright banned dispensing HCQ to COVID-19 victims, with rare exceptions, and allowed stockpiling by other users. Apparently, when pharmacies in New York ran out of HCQ, lupus patients raided neighboring states.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Some states did not ban, but created obstacles for COVID-19 victims, like the requirement that the patient tested positive for COVID-19 (when the availability of tests was limited). In the best case, the result was delay of HCQ treatment, sharply decreasing its anti-viral efficiency.
NY’s policy on HCQ fulfillment was probably the worst (score: 10):
No pharmacist shall dispense hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine except when written as prescribed for an FDA-approved indication; or as part of a state approved clinical trial related to COVID-19 for a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19, with such test result documented as part of the prescription. No other experimental or prophylactic use shall be permitted, and any permitted prescription is limited to one fourteen-day prescription with no refills.
The result of banning the use of Hydroxychloroquine in those states was a very high death rate:
This map shows the states with higher than average US COVID-19 mortality rates. Darker red indicates states with more than 500 deaths per million. Lighter red indicates more than US average, or 250-500 deaths per million. New York, a few surrounding states, and DC create a cluster, which accounts for more than 60% of US COVID-19 deaths. This cannot be explained by residents’ traffic. While people from NJ and CT commute to NYC, there is not much regular traffic between NY and MA or PA. It is likely that the unreasonable HCQ policies in NY and NJ caused shortages of HCQ, which spilled over to the neighboring states. This suggests that lack of HCQ for COVID-19 patients was a factor in increasing COVID-19 mortality rates.
wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/d…9-victims/


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle

I ’ ve started to read The Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio ( You can download here : www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/Principles-For-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises-By-Ray-Dalio.pdf ) and I found the part about the phases of the classic deflationary debt cycle a very good read for the present times ( Pages 16-38 on the book ) .
Here are my notes on the section : As of today , we have already gone through the early part of the cycle ( 2009-2020 ) , the bubble ( we skipped this part in my opinion ) , and the top ( Jan-March 2020 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ portion of the cycle ( Which started in mid-march for the US ) The Top did not occur due to typical market forces ( interest rates rising ) , it occurred due to an external force ( COVID-19 ) completely stopping spending on it ’ s tracks ( This has never happened before ) .
The cut in interest rates to 0 on March 15 did little to 1 .
Produce a positive wealth effect , 2 .
Stimulate economic activity and 3 .
Ease debt-service burdens .
The onset of the depression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fed eased by announcing infinite QE and the US govt eased with their first two stimulus bills .
Both measures where announced and implemented throughout the last three weeks of March ( fiscal policy at a slower pace than monetary policy ) According to Dalio , the policies that reduce debt burdens are the following : • Austerity – Although this policy was not enacted , it ’ s happening naturally .
With 3 Billion people locked at home at it ’ s peak , we are forced to not spend as much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Also happening , at a slower pace than I expected .
• Wealth Transfers – Not happening yet , although important voices are already signalling that it better be coming ( Larry Fink ) The most ideal way out of a deflationary depression is to a ‘ Beautiful Deleveraging ’ – aka when the 4 policies above move in a harmonious way where growth grows at a faster pace than debt without inflation spiraling out of control .
We are not even close to a beautiful deleveraging since income is decreasing at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point from page 32 : “ People ask if printing money will raise inflation .
It won ’ t if it offsets falling credit and the deflationary forces are balanced with this inflationary force.
” According to Dalio ’ s table about well managed beautiful deleveraging on page 35 , Both The Federal Reserve and the US Government have done a great job by acting quickly .
However that doesn ’ t change the fact that spending is not being stimulated , again because of an external force .
At this point in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noting , Powell mentioned a variation of this today in his 9:00am video interview ) , The Federal Reserve is basically out of tools to get businesses and consumers to spend again .
It is pretty much out of his scope .
MP3 – Putting money directly in the hands of spenders : Ongoing , but again , hard to incentivize people to spend .
I do believe we are in the depression face of a deflationary debt cycle .
The Federal Reserve has done a great job through Monetary Policy so far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good job through Fiscal Policy so far .
However both are running out of tools in order to solve the last piece of the puzzle : Get business and consumer to SPEND .
That lands entirely on the US Government ’ s Public Health Policy .

by Annapurna__
I’ve started to read The Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio (You can download here: www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/Principles-For-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises-By-Ray-Dalio.pdf) and I found the part about the phases of the classic deflationary debt cycle a very good read for the present times (Pages 16-38 on the book).
Here are my notes on the section:
As of today, we have already gone through the early part of the cycle (2009-2020), the bubble (we skipped this part in my opinion), and the top (Jan-March 2020). We are currently on the depression portion of the cycle (Which started in mid-march for the US)
The Top did not occur due to typical market forces (interest rates rising), it occurred due to an external force (COVID-19) completely stopping spending on it’s tracks (This has never happened before).
The cut in interest rates to 0 on March 15 did little to 1. Produce a positive wealth effect, 2. Stimulate economic activity and 3. Ease debt-service burdens.
The onset of the depression immediately revealed cash-flow problems, which the fed eased by announcing infinite QE and the US govt eased with their first two stimulus bills. Both measures where announced and implemented throughout the last three weeks of March (fiscal policy at a slower pace than monetary policy)
According to Dalio, the policies that reduce debt burdens are the following:
Austerity – Although this policy was not enacted, it’s happening naturally. With 3 Billion people locked at home at it’s peak, we are forced to not spend as much as before. Debt defaults/restructuring – Also happening, at a slower pace than I expected. Debt Monetization / Printing – Quickly enacted through QE Wealth Transfers – Not happening yet, although important voices are already signalling that it better be coming (Larry Fink)
The most ideal way out of a deflationary depression is to a ‘Beautiful Deleveraging’ – aka when the 4 policies above move in a harmonious way where growth grows at a faster pace than debt without inflation spiraling out of control.
We are not even close to a beautiful deleveraging since income is decreasing at the moment while debt is increasing.
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Important point from page 32: “People ask if printing money will raise inflation. It won’t if it offsets falling credit and the deflationary forces are balanced with this inflationary force.”
According to Dalio’s table about well managed beautiful deleveraging on page 35, Both The Federal Reserve and the US Government have done a great job by acting quickly. However that doesn’t change the fact that spending is not being stimulated, again because of an external force.
At this point in time (And it’s worth noting, Powell mentioned a variation of this today in his 9:00am video interview), The Federal Reserve is basically out of tools to get businesses and consumers to spend again. It is pretty much out of his scope.
Monetary Policies Enacted:
MP1 – Interest Rate driven: Enacted on March 4 and March 15
MP2 – QE: Enacted from March 8 to March 23
MP3 – Putting money directly in the hands of spenders: Ongoing, but again, hard to incentivize people to spend.
Conclusion:
I do believe we are in the depression face of a deflationary debt cycle. The Federal Reserve has done a great job through Monetary Policy so far, and the US Government has done a good job through Fiscal Policy so far. However both are running out of tools in order to solve the last piece of the puzzle: Get business and consumer to SPEND. That lands entirely on the US Government’s Public Health Policy.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--JPM: Global Equity #ETF Flows (Note Japan: this is what it looks like when the central bank is the o

JPM : Global Equity # ETF Flows ( Note Japan : this is what it looks like when the central @ @ @ @ @ ) pic.twitter.com/YA0nzdeQYL

JPM: Global Equity #ETF Flows
(Note Japan: this is what it looks like when the central bank is the only buyer) pic.twitter.com/YA0nzdeQYL
— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 🛢 (@chigrl) May 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--EURUSD – Major forces about to be unleashed! When current correction (abcde) finalizes – which will

EURUSD – Major forces about to be unleashed! When current correction (abcde) finalizes – which will happen soon – the coming crash will send shock waves through global economy.

#EURUSD Major forces about to be unleashed! When current correction (abcde) finalizes – which will happen soon – the coming crash will send shock waves through global economy. Fast decline to ~0.98 and later this year further decline to target 0.80-0.85. Take care! USD will soar! pic.twitter.com/FyeUGYwm21 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) May 13, 2020
The trillion euro time bomb. Eurozone banks face rising risk of default on popular hybrid bonds (CoCos) issued in the past years. Capital buffers remain adequate, but falling uncomfortably. In any case, EU will not allow banks to default on CoCos, it would destroy the system pic.twitter.com/JBIuTn79bm — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 13, 2020
The trillion euro time bomb. Eurozone banks face rising risk of default on popular hybrid bonds (CoCos) issued in the past years. Capital buffers remain adequate, but falling uncomfortably. In any case, EU will not allow banks to default on CoCos, it would destroy the system pic.twitter.com/JBIuTn79bm — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Intel Chief Declassifies List of Obama Officials Behind ‘Unmasking’ of Flynn

Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has declassified a list of former Obama administration officials who allegedly were involved @ @ @ @ @ of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn in his communications with the former Russian ambassador during President @ @ @ @ @ period , the Office of the Director of National Intelligence ( ODNI ) confirmed to @ @ @ @ @ to article Intel Chief Declassifies List of Obama Officials Behind ‘ Unmasking ’ of Flynn @ @

Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has declassified a list of former Obama administration officials who allegedly were involved in the “unmasking” of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn in his communications with the former Russian ambassador during President Donald Trump’s transition period, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) confirmed to The Epoch Times.
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Link to article Intel Chief Declassifies List of Obama Officials Behind ‘Unmasking’ of Flynn: www.theepochtimes.com/odni-de…


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Putting A Price on the S&P 500

Putting A Price on the S&P 500

Honey , I bought a new set of golf clubs for 40 % off .
What a deal !
Dearest , I also found a bargain .
I bought XYZ stock at $ 30 , and it was trading at $ 50 two weeks ago .
Our happy couple seems to have found some great bargains .
Their purchases may be cheap in their minds , but are they ?
To answer the question , we need an understanding of what the right price is , not what the price was yesterday .
Why Do We Invest Our Hard-Earned Money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a set golf clubs conclusively .
Those that play three times a week value the latest and greatest set of clubs much higher than hacks like ourselves .
Stocks and other financial assets , on the other hand , are a little easier .
Various forms of quantitative valuation methods allow a calculation of “ fair value.
” Such can be applied to every financial asset from the safest U.S. Treasury bills to the riskiest penny stock .
The fair value for golf clubs , on the other hand , is primarily based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As we will discuss and show , “ fair value ” allows us to objectively assess whether or not those who are buying the S & P 500 are getting a good deal .
Calculating the Fair Value of a Stock One popular method to calculate the present value of a stock is to take its prior earnings , formulate a reasonable set of future earnings based on an assumed growth rate , establish an acceptable return , and calculate a fair value from those inputs .
Since no one can precisely know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ common to have a range of fair values based on various cash flow projections .
Those ranges typically run from high , to low , and a base case , for example .
“ Better than Best ” Fair Value Estimate for the S & P 500 Just as we can forecast earnings for a stock , we can also use aggregated earnings to price the S & P 500 .
From those earnings we can determine if the current price is rich or cheap to what a model suggests is a fair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill to COVID 19 , we calculate a range of fair values for the S & P 500 .
To run this analysis , we made the following assumptions : • Future earnings growth – we base this on the 4.85 % growth rate of earnings from 2012 to the end of 2019 .
The forecast makes the bold , and dare we say impossible , assumption that growth in the second quarter and beyond are unaffected by the Corona Virus .
• Years of cash flows to value – we project and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Currently , with most earnings reported , we have a reasonable estimate of first-quarter earnings for 2020 .
Our “ better than best ” case scenario uses that first-quarter data point and grows it at the prior earnings growth ( 4.85 % ) rate going forward .
This forecast is very aggressive as we know that second-quarter earnings and those further out will fall well short of these projections .
While optimistic , it at least allows us to form a baseline using reliable historical data .
The current fair value of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the assumptions listed above is an S & P 500 price of 2510 .
The current price of the S & P 500 as of 5/11/2020 is 2911 .
Therefore the S & P is overvalued by about 15 % , as shown below .
Even if we can magically erase the bad earnings already seen in April and have an instant “ V ” shaped recovery , the market is still 15 % overvalued .
The graph below provides some history on the price and fair value using the same assumptions and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plots the percentage difference between the price and the fair value calculation .
As shown , markets often go through prolonged periods of over and undervaluation .
The biggest takeaway , however , is that prices always regress to at least fair value after these episodes .
A more extended history argues that when prices do revert toward the mean , they usually go below fair value .
Given that we know our assumptions used above are too optimistic consider more realistic inputs of earnings projections to calculate a range of possible fair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example was our “ better than best ” case scenario .
A logical next step is to take actual earnings declines from the prior two recessions as a forecast for the next few years .
In the Dot Com Bust recession of 2001 , earnings per share for the S & P 500 were cut in half and did not fully recover for four years .
During the Financial Crisis and recession of 2008/09 , earnings per share fell to near zero and also took four years to recover fully .
We use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shortfalls to forecast earnings for the second quarter of 2020 and outwards , as shown below .
Based on the prior two recessions : • The fair value for the S & P 500 using the earnings experience of the 2001 recession is 1980 .
• The fair value for the S & P 500 using the earnings experience of the 2008/09 recession is 1926 .
Both experiences imply an approximate 30 % + decline from current levels to reach fair value .
What if the recession starting in 2020 is worse than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already recognized economic impact from COVID19 and the lack of a vaccine or treatment , it is hard for us to forecast a “ V ” shaped recovery in the coming months .
The unemployment rate is at levels last seen in the Great Depression , and GDP will join it when reported in July .
Simply , the depth and breadth of this episode dwarf the prior two recessions .
We also know the diffusion , or the number of industries and other countries affected is casting a much wider net than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point , the only unknown is the duration .
Given those metrics and even not knowing the duration of the recession , a worst-case scenario , fair value calculation based on a longer duration is well below the 2000 and 2008 based forecasts listed above .
Greed , fear , optimism , and pessimism about the stock market and/or economy can result in significant premiums or discounts .
However , over time , reality has a way of catching up with greed and fear and brings prices back to fair value , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most commonly pass through fair value on their way to being overvalued or undervalued .
In today ’ s environment , we must also factor in a central bank that indirectly supports stock prices .
The impressive stock rebound may continue .
The markets may reach or exceed the record highs of February .
Prices have well deviated from fair value , and the divergence may get worse as valuations are sustained or even rise despite the collapse of earnings .
Make no mistake ; however , buying the S & P 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few months ago is not the rational investors ’ idea of a bargain .
Far from it , in fact .

by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott
Putting a Price on the S&P 500
Honey, I bought a new set of golf clubs for 40% off. What a deal!
Dearest, I also found a bargain. I bought XYZ stock at $30, and it was trading at $50 two weeks ago.
Our happy couple seems to have found some great bargains. Their purchases may be cheap in their minds, but are they? To answer the question, we need an understanding of what the right price is, not what the price was yesterday.
Why Do We Invest Our Hard-Earned Money?
There is no way to value a set golf clubs conclusively. Those that play three times a week value the latest and greatest set of clubs much higher than hacks like ourselves.
Stocks and other financial assets, on the other hand, are a little easier. Various forms of quantitative valuation methods allow a calculation of “fair value.” Such can be applied to every financial asset from the safest U.S. Treasury bills to the riskiest penny stock. The fair value for golf clubs, on the other hand, is primarily based on enjoyment, a qualitative factor.
As we will discuss and show, “fair value” allows us to objectively assess whether or not those who are buying the S&P 500 are getting a good deal.
Calculating the Fair Value of a Stock
One popular method to calculate the present value of a stock is to take its prior earnings, formulate a reasonable set of future earnings based on an assumed growth rate, establish an acceptable return, and calculate a fair value from those inputs.
Since no one can precisely know where fair value is, it is common to have a range of fair values based on various cash flow projections. Those ranges typically run from high, to low, and a base case, for example.
“Better than Best” Fair Value Estimate for the S&P 500
Just as we can forecast earnings for a stock, we can also use aggregated earnings to price the S&P 500. From those earnings we can determine if the current price is rich or cheap to what a model suggests is a fair price.
So with corporate earnings falling ill to COVID 19, we calculate a range of fair values for the S&P 500.
To run this analysis, we made the following assumptions:
Future earnings growth – we base this on the 4.85% growth rate of earnings from 2012 to the end of 2019. The forecast makes the bold, and dare we say impossible, assumption that growth in the second quarter and beyond are unaffected by the Corona Virus.
Acceptable return premium – we assume a 7% discounting factor based on historical equity returns
Years of cash flows to value – we project and discount earnings for the next 25 years.
Currently, with most earnings reported, we have a reasonable estimate of first-quarter earnings for 2020. Our “better than best” case scenario uses that first-quarter data point and grows it at the prior earnings growth (4.85%) rate going forward.
This forecast is very aggressive as we know that second-quarter earnings and those further out will fall well short of these projections. While optimistic, it at least allows us to form a baseline using reliable historical data.
The current fair value of the S&P 500 based on the assumptions listed above is an S&P 500 price of 2510. The current price of the S&P 500 as of 5/11/2020 is 2911. Therefore the S&P is overvalued by about 15%, as shown below.
Even if we can magically erase the bad earnings already seen in April and have an instant “V” shaped recovery, the market is still 15% overvalued.
The graph below provides some history on the price and fair value using the same assumptions and actual prior earnings.
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The yellow area plots the percentage difference between the price and the fair value calculation. As shown, markets often go through prolonged periods of over and undervaluation. The biggest takeaway, however, is that prices always regress to at least fair value after these episodes. A more extended history argues that when prices do revert toward the mean, they usually go below fair value.
Given that we know our assumptions used above are too optimistic consider more realistic inputs of earnings projections to calculate a range of possible fair values.
Analysis Based on 2000 and 2008
As mentioned, the above example was our “better than best” case scenario. A logical next step is to take actual earnings declines from the prior two recessions as a forecast for the next few years.
In the Dot Com Bust recession of 2001, earnings per share for the S&P 500 were cut in half and did not fully recover for four years.
During the Financial Crisis and recession of 2008/09, earnings per share fell to near zero and also took four years to recover fully.
We use the percentage earnings declines and duration of shortfalls to forecast earnings for the second quarter of 2020 and outwards, as shown below.
Based on the prior two recessions:
The fair value for the S&P 500 using the earnings experience of the 2001 recession is 1980.
The fair value for the S&P 500 using the earnings experience of the 2008/09 recession is 1926.
Both experiences imply an approximate 30%+ decline from current levels to reach fair value.
The “What if” Worst Case Scenario
What if the recession starting in 2020 is worse than those scenarios modeled above?
Given the already recognized economic impact from COVID19 and the lack of a vaccine or treatment, it is hard for us to forecast a “V” shaped recovery in the coming months. The unemployment rate is at levels last seen in the Great Depression, and GDP will join it when reported in July. Simply, the depth and breadth of this episode dwarf the prior two recessions.
We also know the diffusion, or the number of industries and other countries affected is casting a much wider net than the prior two recessions.
At this point, the only unknown is the duration.
Given those metrics and even not knowing the duration of the recession, a worst-case scenario, fair value calculation based on a longer duration is well below the 2000 and 2008 based forecasts listed above.
Disclaimer
Greed, fear, optimism, and pessimism about the stock market and/or economy can result in significant premiums or discounts.
However, over time, reality has a way of catching up with greed and fear and brings prices back to fair value, if only for a short time. Valuations most commonly pass through fair value on their way to being overvalued or undervalued.
In today’s environment, we must also factor in a central bank that indirectly supports stock prices.
Summary
The impressive stock rebound may continue. The markets may reach or exceed the record highs of February. Prices have well deviated from fair value, and the divergence may get worse as valuations are sustained or even rise despite the collapse of earnings.
Make no mistake; however, buying the S&P 500 15% below where it was a few months ago is not the rational investors’ idea of a bargain. Far from it, in fact.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--BUST: Built for global economy, Dubai now threatened…  Billions in looming debt repayments

DUBAI , United Arab Emirates ( AP ) — Dubai built a city of skyscrapers and artificial archipelagos on the promise of globalization , creating itself as a vital hub for the free movement of trade , people and money worldwide — all things that have been disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic .
Now , with events canceled , flights grounded and investment halted , this sheikdom in the United Arab Emirates is threatened both by the virus and a growing economic crisis .
Under pressure even before the outbreak , Dubai and its vast web of state-linked industries face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And though it was bailed out a decade earlier , Dubai may not be able to count on another cash infusion , given the crash in global oil prices .
“ They facilitate the transport and the buying of things and the movement of people , ” said Karen E. Young , a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who studies Gulf Arab economies .
“ That ’ s not the world we ’ re living in right now.
” Dubai ’ s dedication to global trade is memorialized in the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50-Year Charter , something created last year by its ruler , Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum , who has overseen much of the city ’ s growth .
“ Dubai is destined to be a crossroad between East and West , and between North and South , ” the charter says .

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Dubai built a city of skyscrapers and artificial archipelagos on the promise of globalization, creating itself as a vital hub for the free movement of trade, people and money worldwide — all things that have been disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic.
Now, with events canceled, flights grounded and investment halted, this sheikdom in the United Arab Emirates is threatened both by the virus and a growing economic crisis. Under pressure even before the outbreak, Dubai and its vast web of state-linked industries face billions of dollars in looming debt repayments.
And though it was bailed out a decade earlier, Dubai may not be able to count on another cash infusion, given the crash in global oil prices.
“They facilitate the transport and the buying of things and the movement of people,” said Karen E. Young, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who studies Gulf Arab economies. “That’s not the world we’re living in right now.”
Dubai’s dedication to global trade is memorialized in the first sentence of the first article of its 50-Year Charter, something created last year by its ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who has overseen much of the city’s growth.
“Dubai is destined to be a crossroad between East and West, and between North and South,” the charter says.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--THIS IS CNN: CNN Runs Coronavirus Vaccine Headline Opposite of Actual Poll Result; Somewhat Clarifie

THIS IS CNN: CNN Runs Coronavirus Vaccine Headline Opposite of Actual Poll Result; Somewhat Clarifies.

“ ‘ Claiming that this survey shows that ‘ 68 % of Americans say a vaccine is needed before returning @ @ @ @ @ an egregious misreading of the data , writes Grossman .
‘ Looking at the two @ @ @ @ @ , the data shows that Americans are thinking about a lot of things , and @ @ @ @ @ in new cases.
’ In fact , it ’ s worse than an egregious misreading @ @ @ @ @ not simply misleading or requiring clarification .
Their headline indicates the opposite of what the @ @ @ @ @ shows that only 9 % of would definitely wait until there is a vaccine before @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s a small minority , not a large majority .
”

via mediaite
“‘Claiming that this survey shows that ‘68% of Americans say a vaccine is needed before returning to normal life’ is an egregious misreading of the data, writes Grossman. ‘Looking at the two Gallup questions that mention vaccines, the data shows that Americans are thinking about a lot of things, and primarily concerned about a decline in new cases.’ In fact, it’s worse than an egregious misreading, and it’s not simply misleading or requiring clarification. Their headline indicates the opposite of what the Gallup shows. The survey shows that only 9% of would definitely wait until there is a vaccine before returning to normal day-to-day activities. That’s a small minority, not a large majority.”
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h/t ED


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--60 Minutes criticized for running segment praising China’s response to coronavirus

A recent piece by 60 Minutes criticized the trump administration ’ s response to coronavirus , while going a step @ @ @ @ @ its response .
One America ’ s Jack Posobiec has the details .

A recent piece by 60 Minutes criticized the trump administration’s response to coronavirus, while going a step further to praise China for its response. One America’s Jack Posobiec has the details.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--COVID-19 | Threat of a second wave of pandemic is getting real

Authorities of China ’ s # Wuhan are planning to test all residents within the next 10 days for # @ @ @ @ @ in the city after strict lockdown measures were lifted .
South Korea also registered a @ @ @ @ @ from last week , country ’ s authorities link it to nightclubs and bars functioning @ @ @

Authorities of China’s #Wuhan are planning to test all residents within the next 10 days for #COVID19 as new cases emerge in the city after strict lockdown measures were lifted. South Korea also registered a spike in new cases starting from last week, country’s authorities link it to nightclubs and bars functioning in Seoul.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Biden Is The Worst Democratic Candidate In Recent History!

Top 10 Most Influential Quotes of All Time “ Corn pop was a bad dude , and he ran a bunch of bad boys ” – Joesph R. Biden , 2017 Biden Lying His ASS OFF Like You ’ ve Never Seen Before – Its going viral , 1.2 Million views , he ’ s OVER !
OBAMABIDENGATE : Joe Biden Denies Then Admits To Knowledge Of FBI ’ s Flynn Set Up .
“ I know nothing about those moves to investigate Michael Flynn , ” Biden said on ABC ’ s “ Good Morning America ” when George @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FBI ’ s operations in early 2017 .
Biden went on to call new earthshattering revelations in recent weeks about the Obama administration ’ s spy scandal a distraction from the ongoing public health pandemic in an effort to avoid the topic .
“ This is all about diversion .
This is a game this guy plays all the time .
The country is in crisis … He should stop trying to always divert attention from the real concerns of the American people.
” Stephanopoulos followed up , adding that Biden was present @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Office meeting where he and President Barack Obama was briefed by top White House national security officials on plans to question Flynn over conversations with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislak as the presidential transition was underway .
“ I thought you asked me whether or not I had anything to do with him being prosecuted , ” Biden said .
“ I was aware that there was , that they asked for an investigation , but that ’ s all I know about.
” It ’ s impossible to tell whether Biden is lying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three .
GROPEY JOE : Biden ’ s Support Among Women Drops as Tara Reade Allegations – and His Response – Take Their Toll .

Top 10 Most Influential Quotes of All Time
“Corn pop was a bad dude, and he ran a bunch of bad boys” – Joesph R. Biden, 2017
Biden Lying His ASS OFF Like You’ve Never Seen Before – Its going viral, 1.2 Million views, he’s OVER!
www.facebook.com/watch/?v=237047021065243
OBAMABIDENGATE: Joe Biden Denies Then Admits To Knowledge Of FBI’s Flynn Set Up.
“I know nothing about those moves to investigate Michael Flynn,” Biden said on ABC’s “Good Morning America” when George Stephanopoulos asked what he knew of the FBI’s operations in early 2017.
Biden went on to call new earthshattering revelations in recent weeks about the Obama administration’s spy scandal a distraction from the ongoing public health pandemic in an effort to avoid the topic.
“This is all about diversion. This is a game this guy plays all the time. The country is in crisis … He should stop trying to always divert attention from the real concerns of the American people.”
Stephanopoulos followed up, adding that Biden was present at a Jan. 5, 2017 Oval Office meeting where he and President Barack Obama was briefed by top White House national security officials on plans to question Flynn over conversations with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislak as the presidential transition was underway.
“I thought you asked me whether or not I had anything to do with him being prosecuted,” Biden said. “I was aware that there was, that they asked for an investigation, but that’s all I know about.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--Flattening the Curve: More Than A Million Health Care Workers Lose Jobs

A month ago I wrote , “ When you prepare for something that is not coming , you just may destroy yourself.
” “ What has happened in our country – and in much of the world – due to shutting down economies , will make an excellent case study for future economic students .
An excellent case study of WHAT NOT TO DO .
Using the IHME models , hospitals began postponing routine surgeries and treatments .
It turns out that hospitals are not as full of the anticipated number of Wuhan virus patients .
So what are they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Thousands of US medical workers furloughed , laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic.
” The fallout from trying to save our health care system continues .
NPR reports that more than a million health care workers have lost jobs due to hospitals losing money from preparing for the massive Wuhan virus hospitalizations that never materialized .
“ It ’ s an ironic twist as the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the nation : The very workers tasked with treating those afflicted with the virus are losing work in droves .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ surgical procedures have largely been put on hold .
Health care spending fell 18 % in the first three months of the year .
And 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April , a sharp increase from the 42,000 reported in March , according to the Labor Department .
Nearly 135,000 of the April losses were in hospitals .
The University of Cincinnati Medical Center is among many : The American Hospital Association recently predicted that U.S. hospitals and health systems would end up taking a $ 200 billion hit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most of that money — $ 160 billion — is from lost revenue from more lucrative elective procedures .
“ The only people who are coming into the hospitals are COVID-19 patients and emergencies , ” says American Hospital Association Executive Vice President Tom Nickels .
“ All of the so-called elective surgery , hips and knees and cardiac , etcetera , are no longer being done in most institutions around the country.
” Even as the pandemic tapers off in some places , hospital revenue losses will take time to correct , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ payer mix ” problem before Americans go back to work .
Many people who lose their jobs will also lose employer-sponsored health insurance , and those private plans reimburse providers at much higher rates than publicly funded plans like Medicaid and Medicare.
” Read the whole story here .

by DCG
A month ago I wrote, “When you prepare for something that is not coming, you just may destroy yourself.”
From that post:
“What has happened in our country – and in much of the world – due to shutting down economies, will make an excellent case study for future economic students. An excellent case study of WHAT NOT TO DO.
Using the IHME models, hospitals began postponing routine surgeries and treatments. It turns out that hospitals are not as full of the anticipated number of Wuhan virus patients. So what are they doing now?
From USA Today: “Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic.”
The fallout from trying to save our health care system continues. NPR reports that more than a million health care workers have lost jobs due to hospitals losing money from preparing for the massive Wuhan virus hospitalizations that never materialized.
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Excerpts from their story:
“It’s an ironic twist as the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the nation: The very workers tasked with treating those afflicted with the virus are losing work in droves. Emergency room visits are down. Non-urgent surgical procedures have largely been put on hold. Health care spending fell 18% in the first three months of the year. And 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, a sharp increase from the 42,000 reported in March, according to the Labor Department. Nearly 135,000 of the April losses were in hospitals.
The University of Cincinnati Medical Center is among many: The American Hospital Association recently predicted that U.S. hospitals and health systems would end up taking a $200 billion hit over a four-month period through June. Most of that money — $160 billion — is from lost revenue from more lucrative elective procedures.
“The only people who are coming into the hospitals are COVID-19 patients and emergencies,” says American Hospital Association Executive Vice President Tom Nickels. “All of the so-called elective surgery, hips and knees and cardiac, etcetera, are no longer being done in most institutions around the country.”
Even as the pandemic tapers off in some places, hospital revenue losses will take time to correct, especially because hospitals may face a potential “payer mix” problem before Americans go back to work. Many people who lose their jobs will also lose employer-sponsored health insurance, and those private plans reimburse providers at much higher rates than publicly funded plans like Medicaid and Medicare.”
Read the whole story here.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--TRUDEAU SIGNS DEAL WITH CHINESE MILITARY TO TEST FAST TRACKED VACCINE IN CANADA

You can not make this up .
Canadians are going to be served up as LAB RATS to the Chinese military .
I am actually sick to my stomach .
I don ’ t know WHAT TO DO .
National Research Council strikes deal with China to develop COVID-19 vaccine in Canada NATHAN VANDERKLIPPEASIA CORRESPONDENT BEIJING PUBLISHED MAY 12 , 2020 UPDATED 20 HOURS AGO Canadian researchers are joining the effort to develop a Chinese vaccine against the deadly coronavirus , with plans to begin human trials in Canada of a potential defence against COVID-19 that employs genetic technology from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will bring to Canadian soil Ad5-nCoV , a vaccine candidate under joint development by a Chinese company and the country ’ s military .
Backed by a state that has urgently sought a vaccine of global importance , Ad5-nCoV has been among the most rapidly developed of numerous candidates around the world .
Now the NRC has struck an agreement to support its development in Canada by manufacturing doses that can be administered in human tests and for emergency pandemic use .
“ We are going to get to evaluate it for safety @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being done already in China , and Canada will now be part of the front-runner story , ” said Roman Szumski , vice-president of life sciences for the NRC .

You cannot make this up.
Canadians are going to be served up as LAB RATS to the Chinese military.
I am actually sick to my stomach. I don’t know WHAT TO DO.
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National Research Council strikes deal with China to develop COVID-19 vaccine in Canada
NATHAN VANDERKLIPPEASIA CORRESPONDENT
BEIJING
PUBLISHED MAY 12, 2020
UPDATED 20 HOURS AGO Canadian researchers are joining the effort to develop a Chinese vaccine against the deadly coronavirus, with plans to begin human trials in Canada of a potential defence against COVID-19 that employs genetic technology from the National Research Council. The trials will bring to Canadian soil Ad5-nCoV, a vaccine candidate under joint development by a Chinese company and the country’s military. Backed by a state that has urgently sought a vaccine of global importance, Ad5-nCoV has been among the most rapidly developed of numerous candidates around the world. Now the NRC has struck an agreement to support its development in Canada by manufacturing doses that can be administered in human tests and for emergency pandemic use. “We are going to get to evaluate it for safety and efficacy in Canada, as is being done already in China, and Canada will now be part of the front-runner story,” said Roman Szumski, vice-president of life sciences for the NRC.
www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-national-research-council-strikes-deal-with-china-to-develop-test/
h/t Ozone Baby


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-13--“It sure does make a person wonder what changed between December 2017 when Judge Sullivan said no am

“It sure does make a person wonder what changed between December 2017 when Judge Sullivan said no amicus briefs would be allowed, to May 2020 when Judge Sullivan is requesting amicus briefs to be entertained?”

In response to Judge Emmet Sullivan announcing a delay in Flynn ruling to allow third party amicus briefs to be @ @ @ @ @ Michael Flynn ’ s defense counsel files a motion in opposition .
[ Cloud pdf @ @ @ @ @ In opposition to the delay Attorney Sidney Powell notes Judge Sullivan ’ s earlier ruling @ @ @ @ @ , disallowing amicus briefs in this case .
It sure does make a person wonder @ @ @ @ @ when Judge Sullivan said no amicus briefs would be allowed , to May 2020 when @ @ @ @ @ briefs to be entertained ?
… .
♦Michael Flynn wasn ’ t unmasked , nor @ @ @ @ @ ) HERE Here ’ s the full briefing in opposition to the intended direction of @ @ @

In response to Judge Emmet Sullivan announcing a delay in Flynn ruling to allow third party amicus briefs to be filed with the court, Michael Flynn’s defense counsel files a motion in opposition. [Cloud pdf Here] Embed pdf below
In opposition to the delay Attorney Sidney Powell notes Judge Sullivan’s earlier ruling of December 20, 2017, disallowing amicus briefs in this case.
It sure does make a person wonder what changed between December 2017 when Judge Sullivan said no amicus briefs would be allowed, to May 2020 when Judge Sullivan is requesting amicus briefs to be entertained?….
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♦Understand Obama’s Surveillance Operation HERE.
♦Michael Flynn wasn’t unmasked, nor under a FISA (Title-1) HERE
Here’s the full briefing in opposition to the intended direction of the court: