investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--“A perfect storm’: US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars. Preppers , keep quiet and

“A perfect storm’: US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars. Preppers , keep quiet and guard your supplies.

An unprecedented number of Americans have resorted to food banks for emergency supplies since the coronavirus pandemic triggered widespread layoffs .
The demand for food aid has increased as much as eightfold in some areas , according to an investigation by the Guardian , which gives a nationwide snapshot of the hunger crisis facing the US as millions become unemployed The world risks facing a food shortage if authorities fail to manage the continuing coronavirus outbreak properly , the heads of three global agencies have warned .
As governments around the world are trying to curb the spread of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown , international trade and food supply chains suffered a severe slowdown .
Panic-buying by people going into confinement has already demonstrated the fragility of supply chains as supermarket shelves emptied in many countries .
“ Uncertainty about food availability can spark a wave of export restrictions , creating a shortage on the global market , ” said the joint text signed on Wednesday by Qu Dongyu , head of the UN ’ s Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO ) , Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus , director-general of the World Health Organization ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ director of the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) .
“ In the midst of the COVID-19 lockdowns , every effort must be made to ensure that trade flows as freely as possible , specially to avoid food shortages ” from developing , they said in the statement .
“ When acting to protect the health and wellbeing of their citizens , countries should ensure that any trade-related measures do not disrupt the food supply chain , ” the statement added .

An unprecedented number of Americans have resorted to food banks for emergency supplies since the coronavirus pandemic triggered widespread layoffs.
The demand for food aid has increased as much as eightfold in some areas, according to an investigation by the Guardian, which gives a nationwide snapshot of the hunger crisis facing the US as millions become unemployed
www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/02/us-food-banks-coronavirus-demand-unemployment
World risks food crisis in wake of Corona virus
The world risks facing a food shortage if authorities fail to manage the continuing coronavirus outbreak properly, the heads of three global agencies have warned.
As governments around the world are trying to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus by putting their populations in lockdown, international trade and food supply chains suffered a severe slowdown.
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Panic-buying by people going into confinement has already demonstrated the fragility of supply chains as supermarket shelves emptied in many countries.
“Uncertainty about food availability can spark a wave of export restrictions, creating a shortage on the global market,” said the joint text signed on Wednesday by Qu Dongyu, head of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), and Roberto Azevedo, director of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
“In the midst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, every effort must be made to ensure that trade flows as freely as possible, specially to avoid food shortages” from developing, they said in the statement.
“When acting to protect the health and wellbeing of their citizens, countries should ensure that any trade-related measures do not disrupt the food supply chain,” the statement added.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/world-risks-food-crisis-wake-coronavirus-officials-warn-200401113703012.html
h/t Wash2


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Coronavirus ‘May Cause Brain Damage’ As Dangerous Swelling Found In ‘Confused’ Patients

I have been stating this FOR MONTHS !
!
!
“ Coronavirus could cause brain damage in some patients by @ @ @ @ @ to bleeds and the killing of cells , doctors have warned .
The virus appears @ @ @ @ @ complications in some of those infected – including one Florida man in his 70s who @ @ @ @ @ speak .
While other scans suggest a woman in her 50s from Detroit has lost @ @ @ @ @ , and similar central nervous problems have been reported in Italy and China .
”

I have been stating this FOR MONTHS!!!
“Coronavirus could cause brain damage in some patients by triggering inflammation that can lead to bleeds and the killing of cells, doctors have warned.
The virus appears to have resulted in neurological complications in some of those infected – including one Florida man in his 70s who temporarily lost the ability to speak.
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While other scans suggest a woman in her 50s from Detroit has lost big chunks of brain cells, and similar central nervous problems have been reported in Italy and China.”
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-may-cause-brain-damage-21804695
BFD


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--If It Weren’t For Fake News, They’d Have Hardly Any News At All:

Misleading NYT Map Suggests The South Is Uniquely Dangerous for Coronavirus .
On Thursday , The New York Times published a story suggesting that the South is uniquely dangerous for the spread of the coronavirus .
Michael Barbaro , host of the Times podcast “ The Daily , ” shared the map with the text , “ In a word….The South.
” Yet both the NYT article and Barbaro ’ s tweet ignored basic realities about American life that help explain the reasons behind the map — and show that the South is not a uniquely dangerous region during this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Where America Didn ’ t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread , ” James Glanz dissects cellphone location data from the data intelligence firm Cuebiq .
Cuebiq tracked 15 million people ’ s cellphone locations to map travel patterns across America .
The resulting map does indeed suggest southerners continued to travel more than two miles even as states and local governments were issuing stay-at-home orders to slow the spread of coronavirus .
“ Disease experts who reviewed the results say those reductions in travel — to less than a mile a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five miles — may be enough to sharply curb the spread of the coronavirus in those regions , at least for now , ” Glanz reports .
Yet he admits the data “ can not predict where outbreaks will spread , and it does not track how many interactions people had while they were traveling .
Not all travel is problematic : A person driving for a few miles to pick up groceries would not be violating stay-at-home orders .
And people in cities can infect others without traveling far.
” Even so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the South for supposedly enabling the spread of the virus more than other regions .
“ But broadly higher levels of travel suggest more contact with others and more chances to spread or contract the disease , researchers said .
Counties with lax travel policies risk not only becoming the next hot spots of the disease , but also acting as reservoirs for the virus that reignite infection in places that have tamped it down , they said .
”

Misleading NYT Map Suggests The South Is Uniquely Dangerous for Coronavirus.
On Thursday, The New York Times published a story suggesting that the South is uniquely dangerous for the spread of the coronavirus. Michael Barbaro, host of the Times podcast “The Daily,” shared the map with the text, “In a word….The South.” Yet both the NYT article and Barbaro’s tweet ignored basic realities about American life that help explain the reasons behind the map — and show that the South is not a uniquely dangerous region during this crisis.
In the article, “Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread,” James Glanz dissects cellphone location data from the data intelligence firm Cuebiq. Cuebiq tracked 15 million people’s cellphone locations to map travel patterns across America. The resulting map does indeed suggest southerners continued to travel more than two miles even as states and local governments were issuing stay-at-home orders to slow the spread of coronavirus.
New York Times screenshot of coronavirus travel map.
“Disease experts who reviewed the results say those reductions in travel — to less than a mile a day, on average, from about five miles — may be enough to sharply curb the spread of the coronavirus in those regions, at least for now,” Glanz reports. Yet he admits the data “cannot predict where outbreaks will spread, and it does not track how many interactions people had while they were traveling. Not all travel is problematic: A person driving for a few miles to pick up groceries would not be violating stay-at-home orders. And people in cities can infect others without traveling far.”
Even so, Glanz cites researchers who supposedly faulted the South for supposedly enabling the spread of the virus more than other regions. “But broadly higher levels of travel suggest more contact with others and more chances to spread or contract the disease, researchers said. Counties with lax travel policies risk not only becoming the next hot spots of the disease, but also acting as reservoirs for the virus that reignite infection in places that have tamped it down, they said.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--WALMART, TARGET ORDERED to STOP SELLING NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS in Vermont – including SEEDS

Big-box retailers in Vermont have been ordered by the state to stop selling nonessential items , including clothing and toys @ @ @ @ @ The order declared a host of goods — from clothing , toys , electronics and @ @ @ @ @ and sports equipment — off limits to in-store customers.. We Better Wake The Hell Up @ @ @ @ @ here )

Big-box retailers in Vermont have been ordered by the state to stop selling nonessential items, including clothing and toys, to in-store customers. The order declared a host of goods — from clothing, toys, electronics and jewelry to paint, gardening and sports equipment — off limits to in-store customers..
www.today.com/today/amp/tdna177397?__twitter_impression=true
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We Better Wake The Hell Up, And Quick…(Pic here)
We Better Wake The Hell Up, And Quick. We Are Being Taken Over And No One Is Stopping It. We Need To Get Back To Work While There Is A Country Left To Save pic.twitter.com/tWwVRnqRm3 — Space 🚀 Force (@Bud_Doggin) April 3, 2020
JW


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--War with China starts in Venezuela

War with China starts in Venezuela

Trump has indicted Maduro from Venezuela and there are a ton of reasons the Trump administration has decided to end the regime .
Maduro basically sold out to China and essentially gave them a foothold in South America .
Maduro has defaulted on loans from China and the CCP would most certainly like nothing else but to move in and set up shop , further solidifying their influence on the worldwide stage and also give them even more power in the region .
A great article listed below breaks down the intricacies of the Maduro and China connection .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bow and they ’ re willing to take it .
“ Chinese President Xi Jinping ’ s support for Maduro reflects Beijing ’ s fear that a violation of sovereignty in Venezuela will lead to the international community ’ s meddling with Chinese internal affairs , specifically in relation to Taiwan and Hong Kong .
Indeed , China ’ s long-standing noninterference approach to foreign policy is the driving force behind its reluctance to join public calls for political change in Venezuela .
Furthermore , as long as China perceives US presence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Guam , Japan , and South Korea , and political support for Taiwan and Hong Kong—as a threat , it has no incentives of siding with the US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó.
” From 2007 to 2017 , Beijing provided more than $ 60 billion in financing to Venezuela , representing more than 40 percent of total Chinese lending in Latin America .
China signed multiple contracts with Venezuela for development projects , including mining research and exploration , housing projects , communication satellites , and a railway company .
Trump basically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maduro .
Proxy war with China .

Trump has indicted Maduro from Venezuela and there are a ton of reasons the Trump administration has decided to end the regime. Maduro basically sold out to China and essentially gave them a foothold in South America.
Maduro has defaulted on loans from China and the CCP would most certainly like nothing else but to move in and set up shop, further solidifying their influence on the worldwide stage and also give them even more power in the region.
A great article listed below breaks down the intricacies of the Maduro and China connection. The Trump administration knows this a shot across the bow and they’re willing to take it.
“Chinese President Xi Jinping’s support for Maduro reflects Beijing’s fear that a violation of sovereignty in Venezuela will lead to the international community’s meddling with Chinese internal affairs, specifically in relation to Taiwan and Hong Kong. Indeed, China’s long-standing noninterference approach to foreign policy is the driving force behind its reluctance to join public calls for political change in Venezuela. Furthermore, as long as China perceives US presence in the Asia Pacific region—including military bases in Guam, Japan, and South Korea, and political support for Taiwan and Hong Kong—as a threat, it has no incentives of siding with the US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó.”
From 2007 to 2017, Beijing provided more than $60 billion in financing to Venezuela, representing more than 40 percent of total Chinese lending in Latin America. China signed multiple contracts with Venezuela for development projects, including mining research and exploration, housing projects, communication satellites, and a railway company.
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www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/chinas-support-for-the-maduro-regime-enduring-or-fleeting/
Trump basically said he’s going to smash Maduro. Proxy war with China.
www.france24.com/en/20200205-inviting-rival-to-speech-trump-vows-to-smash-venezuela-s-maduro
Jimmy


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Martha McSally Urges WHO Director to Resign over Coronavirus

“ Sen .
Martha McSally ( R-AZ ) on Thursday called on the World Health Organization ’ s ( WHO @ @ @ @ @ the organization ’ s management of the coronavirus and the WHO ’ s concealment of @ @ @ @ @ contain it .
McSally called on Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to resign over the WHO @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus outbreak , which originated in Wuhan , China , saying on Fox Business : @ @ @ @ @ a communist .
And their cover-up of this virus that originated with them has caused @ @ @ @ @ around the world .
The WHO needs to stop covering for them .
I think @ @ @ @ @ down .
We need to take some action to address this issue .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s unconscionable what they have done here while we have people dying across the @ @ @

She’s a smart cookie!
“Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) on Thursday called on the World Health Organization’s (WHO) director-general to resign over the organization’s management of the coronavirus and the WHO’s concealment of China’s failure to contain it.
McSally called on Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to resign over the WHO’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, saying on Fox Business:
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I’ve never trusted a communist. And their cover-up of this virus that originated with them has caused unnecessary deaths around America and around the world. The WHO needs to stop covering for them. I think Dr. Tedros needs to step down. We need to take some action to address this issue. It’s just irresponsible. It’s unconscionable what they have done here while we have people dying across the globe:”
www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/02/martha-mcsally-urges-who-director-resign-coronavirus/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Now, a shortage of drugs to happen too? Still report, video and lists of drugs

Drugs most likely to be in short supply : 1 .
Chloroquine phosphate 2 .
Hydroxychloroquine 3 .
Melphalan tablets @ @ @ @ @ .
Disulfiram tablets 6 .
Irbesartan tablets ( very wide use ) 7 .
Losartan @ @ @ @ @ ) and also being tested against coronovirus 8 .
Venlafaxine extended release capsules ( wide @ @ @ @ @ immediate release tablets and extended release tablets 10.Diclofenac Potassium tablets 11 .
Famotidine tablets 12 @ @ @ @ @ Tacrolimus capsules 14 .
Methyldopa tablets 15 .
Hydrozyzine capsules 16 .
Telmisartan tablets 17 @ @ @ @ @ 18 .
Mycophenolate capsules and tablets 19. reports now on Ventolin ( albuterol ) inhalers @ @ @ @ @ taking high blood pressure meds , and this is on the list , groan… .
@ @ @ @ @ to a group of drugs called angiotensin II receptor antagonists .
It keeps blood vessels @ @ @ @ @ blood pressure and improves blood flow .
Losartan is used to treat high blood pressure @ @ @ @ @ end copy//

Drugs most likely to be in short supply:
1. Chloroquine phosphate
2. Hydroxychloroquine
3. Melphalan tablets
4. Anagrelide capsules
5. Disulfiram tablets
6. Irbesartan tablets (very wide use)
7. Losartan tablets (very wide use) and also being tested against coronovirus
8. Venlafaxine extended release capsules (wide use)
9. Levetiracetam immediate release tablets and extended release tablets
10.Diclofenac Potassium tablets
11. Famotidine tablets
12. Fluvastatin capsules
13. Tacrolimus capsules
14. Methyldopa tablets
15. Hydrozyzine capsules
16. Telmisartan tablets
17. Losartan with Hydrochlorothiazide tablets
18. Mycophenolate capsules and tablets
19. reports now on Ventolin (albuterol) inhalers
AND, I just started taking high blood pressure meds, and this is on the list, groan….
..copy..Losartan (Cozaar) belongs to a group of drugs called angiotensin II receptor antagonists. It keeps blood vessels from narrowing, which lowers blood pressure and improves blood flow. Losartan is used to treat high blood pressure (hypertension). // end copy//
Suggests getting a 90 day supply early!
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FDA Drug shortage list:
www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/
h/t savcash


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--You Probably Won’t Handle This Crisis “Perfectly.” That’s Okay.

Right now , every prepper I know is busily trying to tie up any loose ends before the pandemic outbreak racing across the country becomes even worse .
They ’ re buying last-minute supplies , securing their homes , and organizing their plans .
They are managing their families , many of whom aren ’ t taking the situation seriously .
They ’ re trying to think of every last thing they possibly can before the situation becomes worse .
They know there is more than likely going to be a point in time at which they have what they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely , if not impossible .
It ’ s important to know right now that things will not go perfectly .
That ’ s just not how it works .
You won ’ t think of everything , you won ’ t be able to afford everything you might want , your family members who aren ’ t on board are going to think you ’ ve gone off the deep end , and there are skills you ’ re going to wish you had learned .
You are causing yourself undue stress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unrealistic levels of perfection .
I hate to break it to you but the SHTF is upon us and you probably won ’ t handle every detail “ perfectly.
” Don ’ t worry about that .
I know this is the big thing we ’ ve been training for , but it ’ s okay for things not to go exactly right .
You just need to make peace with that realization now .
The stuff you forgot to get before the apocalypse One thing I see a lot in the emails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m a member is people saying , “ What am I missing ?
What did I forget ?
” In fact , when I talked to Selco recently , I asked him the same thing .
After all , this is my first real-deal apocalypse .
He replied , “ You probably did forget something .
Everyone does .
No one thinks of everything.
” And it ’ s so true .
I know this is a whole lot more life-or-death , but for example , have you ever gone to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left with a cart full of other things , and forgotten the thing you went in for ?
None of us are “ perfectly ” prepared .
No matter how many checklists we dutifully fulfill , no matter how many times you inventory what you have , no matter how often you mull over your plans , you ’ re either going to miss something or some crazy variable is going to come out of left field and make you say , “ Oh , crap !
Why didn ’ t I get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And this is okay .
This is life .
Even in an apocalyptic situation .
This is where your prepper mindset comes into play .
Maybe you don ’ t have a whatchamadoodle when you need one , but perhaps you can make one .
Perhaps you can improvise with something totally different than the whatchamadoodle and come up with a unique but acceptable substitute .
Perhaps you can do whatever it is you were trying to do without a whatchamadoodle at all .
All you can do is get the things you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you got most of what you need .
Hoping you got all of what you need is a pretty extreme goal , even for those of us who ’ ve spent years preparing .
There are going to be things you never realized you should have gotten until the moment when you need them .
I have limited funds .
You probably do too .
There are very few of us who can buy everything on our prepper dream list .
A lot of us can ’ t afford to have a home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bug out to on a magical piece of property that has the prepper triad of fresh , clean water , defensibility , and a good place to grow food .
You may not be where you wanted to be before the apocalypse struck for the plain , simple reason that you don ’ t have enough money .
And especially now , with people losing jobs left , right , and center , it ’ s possible that money is even more of an object than it was before .
We can only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of money we have .
You don ’ t have to be rich to survive .
People have survived terrible situations for as long as humanity has existed without special gear that would have made it easier .
You can too .
The stuff you wish you ’ d learned ahead of time I was going to buy a shotgun before this all happened .
But I waited too long ( see above – I needed to wait until I had the money to do so ) and once I had the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state where I ’ ve found myself were closed , so I wouldn ’ t have an opportunity to learn how to use it .
I decided , what good will this purchase be if I have never shot this particular firearm in my life ?
If I don ’ t know how to safely load and unload it ?
If I don ’ t have a clue what I ’ m doing ?
I decided to stick with the handguns I ’ m familiar with instead of adding something I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to learn about .
Before this is over , there will probably be things that make you think , “ Why on earth didn ’ t I learn how to do this when times were good ?
” You ’ ll need to repair something , grow something , build something , or deal with a medical issue that you never even considered handling before .
You won ’ t know how to do it .
If you ’ re lucky , the internet will be here and you can YouTube it or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re less lucky and the internet is kaput , but still somewhat fortunate , you ’ ll be able to look it up in one of the umpteen-million prepper books you purchased .
And if your luck has run out you ’ ll either figure it out , find someone who can teach you or who you can bribe with a good barter to do it for you , or you will come up with some kind of workaround .
Is it ideal ?
Maybe not , but every person does not possess @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , get the educational resources you can , and work with this .
The family members who think you ’ ve gone off the deep end I can ’ t tell you how many people I ’ ve talked to who have family members who think they ’ ve taken this “ prepping stuff ” too far .
Nearly everyone has one of the spouses , the aging parents , the rebellious teenagers , and the young adults in our lives who think we have truly and finally lost our marbles .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy the things we may need , to be able to afford the things we may need , and to learn the skills we may need , the doubters in your life will be even more certain that you ’ ve lost your mind .
In situations where you can , you have to ignore these people .
That isn ’ t so easy when it ’ s a person with whom you share a budget who is upset about how much money you ’ ve been spending .
It isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have 794 rolls of toilet paper by posting a photo of it on social media .
It is far from easy when your elderly parent tries to sit you down and explain that you ’ re going overboard and the current situation is being blown out of proportion .
Your kid may miss his social life and do something shockingly stupid , putting everyone in the home at risk and you may have to crack down to a level your spouse thinks is unreasonable .
It ’ s so hard to do when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It can make you doubt that you ’ re doing the right thing by preparing so feverishly .
It can make you question whether this looming event is “ the big one ” we ’ ve all been talking about and planning for , ever since you became a prepper .
You just have to carry on and do your best within the limitations you have .
One day they ’ re going to be thankful that you did .
The stuff you didn ’ t see coming The thing about SHTF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always variables .
There are often concurrent disasters that make Disaster 1 even worse than it was already .
These concurrent disasters may take you completely by surprise .
You can not think of every variable in the entire world .
I mean , who expected a massive tornado to hit in the middle of a pandemic ?
Jonesboro , Arkansas probably didn ’ t but guess what ?
It happened .
Who expected a hurricane in the middle of a pandemic ?
Guess what ?
There are 7-9 of them brewing at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have their baby during a pandemic ?
Well , the pandemic happened and there are buns in ovens and…these babies will be born into the chaos of this crazy time .
Your primary breadwinner could lose his or her job -that ’ s happened to millions .
You could break your leg right before all hell breaks loose .
House fires can happen at any point in time .
If someone decides to break into your home , it will probably be through some means that never even crossed your mind .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had thought of everything… except an unexpected series of events with loved ones – events that were completely out of her control – which decimated part of her plan and caused her boundless stress .
Stuff is going to happen .
Stuff over which you have no control .
This is especially true when our entire system is already running differently .
You ’ re just going to do the best that you can and you ’ re going to have to be ready to swiftly adapt your plans to your reality .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now is just the beginning of an SHTF-level disaster .
Now , I ’ m not saying I expect things to go totally Mad Max this weekend or next , but I am saying that we ’ re stepping into previously uncharted territory .
We ’ re in the midst of a deadly pandemic and our economy is crashing as officials try to mitigate it .
( Look – concurrent disasters ! )
Definitely keep prepping in any way that you can , for as long as you can do so safely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s no way you have thought of everything you might need , been able to afford everything you might want , learned every skill that might possibly be needed , and are surrounded only by people who think you ’ re a genius as you empty the bank accounts buying preps .
None of these things constitutes a failure on your part .
You have to stop being so hard on yourself .
You have to control your levels of stress .
Becoming overly stressed and panicked before the event has even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a terrible waste of your energy .
It can even lead to you becoming more susceptible to illness .
You can ’ t think of everything .
After all , you ’ ve never lived through a pandemic , an economic collapse , and months of lockdown before .
None of us has .
It ’ s okay to have forgotten things .
We will all run into setbacks and unexpected catastrophes .
It ’ s the nature of this particular beast .
When part of our social norms goes to hell , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s your ability to shake off these perceived failures and keep pushing forward that will determine your true level of preparedness .
Do the best that you can with the resources that you have and keep your mind clear .
That ’ s all any of us can do .

by Daisy Luther
Right now, every prepper I know is busily trying to tie up any loose ends before the pandemic outbreak racing across the country becomes even worse. They’re buying last-minute supplies, securing their homes, and organizing their plans. They are managing their families, many of whom aren’t taking the situation seriously.
They’re trying to think of every last thing they possibly can before the situation becomes worse. They know there is more than likely going to be a point in time at which they have what they have and adding more supplies will be unlikely, if not impossible.
It’s important to know right now that things will not go perfectly. That’s just not how it works. You won’t think of everything, you won’t be able to afford everything you might want, your family members who aren’t on board are going to think you’ve gone off the deep end, and there are skills you’re going to wish you had learned.
You are causing yourself undue stress in an already highly-stressful situation by demanding unrealistic levels of perfection.
I hate to break it to you but the SHTF is upon us and you probably won’t handle every detail “perfectly.”
Don’t worry about that. I know this is the big thing we’ve been training for, but it’s okay for things not to go exactly right. You just need to make peace with that realization now.
The stuff you forgot to get before the apocalypse
One thing I see a lot in the emails I get and in the groups where I’m a member is people saying, “What am I missing? What did I forget?”
In fact, when I talked to Selco recently, I asked him the same thing. After all, this is my first real-deal apocalypse. He replied, “You probably did forget something. Everyone does. No one thinks of everything.”
And it’s so true. I know this is a whole lot more life-or-death, but for example, have you ever gone to the store to get one thing, left with a cart full of other things, and forgotten the thing you went in for?
We forget things.
None of us are “perfectly” prepared. No matter how many checklists we dutifully fulfill, no matter how many times you inventory what you have, no matter how often you mull over your plans, you’re either going to miss something or some crazy variable is going to come out of left field and make you say, “Oh, crap! Why didn’t I get any whatchamadoodles!?!?”
And this is okay.
This is life. Even in an apocalyptic situation.
This is where your prepper mindset comes into play.
Maybe you don’t have a whatchamadoodle when you need one, but perhaps you can make one. Perhaps you can improvise with something totally different than the whatchamadoodle and come up with a unique but acceptable substitute. Perhaps you can do whatever it is you were trying to do without a whatchamadoodle at all.
All you can do is get the things you think of ahead of time and hope you got most of what you need. Hoping you got all of what you need is a pretty extreme goal, even for those of us who’ve spent years preparing.
There are going to be things you never realized you should have gotten until the moment when you need them.
The stuff you couldn’t afford
I have limited funds. You probably do too. There are very few of us who can buy everything on our prepper dream list. A lot of us can’t afford to have a home where we work and another home to bug out to on a magical piece of property that has the prepper triad of fresh, clean water, defensibility, and a good place to grow food.
You may not be where you wanted to be before the apocalypse struck for the plain, simple reason that you don’t have enough money.
And especially now, with people losing jobs left, right, and center, it’s possible that money is even more of an object than it was before.
We can only do what we can do with the amount of money we have. You don’t have to be rich to survive. People have survived terrible situations for as long as humanity has existed without special gear that would have made it easier. You can too.
The stuff you wish you’d learned ahead of time
I was going to buy a shotgun before this all happened. But I waited too long (see above – I needed to wait until I had the money to do so) and once I had the money, all the gun ranges in the state where I’ve found myself were closed, so I wouldn’t have an opportunity to learn how to use it. I decided, what good will this purchase be if I have never shot this particular firearm in my life? If I don’t know how to safely load and unload it? If I don’t have a clue what I’m doing?
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I decided to stick with the handguns I’m familiar with instead of adding something I don’t have the time or capability to learn about.
Before this is over, there will probably be things that make you think, “Why on earth didn’t I learn how to do this when times were good?”
You’ll need to repair something, grow something, build something, or deal with a medical issue that you never even considered handling before. You won’t know how to do it. If you’re lucky, the internet will be here and you can YouTube it or ask people online. If you’re less lucky and the internet is kaput, but still somewhat fortunate, you’ll be able to look it up in one of the umpteen-million prepper books you purchased.
And if your luck has run out you’ll either figure it out, find someone who can teach you or who you can bribe with a good barter to do it for you, or you will come up with some kind of workaround.
Is it ideal? Maybe not, but every person does not possess every skill. Learn what you can, get the educational resources you can, and work with this.
The family members who think you’ve gone off the deep end
I can’t tell you how many people I’ve talked to who have family members who think they’ve taken this “prepping stuff” too far. Nearly everyone has one of the spouses, the aging parents, the rebellious teenagers, and the young adults in our lives who think we have truly and finally lost our marbles. And as our intensity increases to remember to buy the things we may need, to be able to afford the things we may need, and to learn the skills we may need, the doubters in your life will be even more certain that you’ve lost your mind.
In situations where you can, you have to ignore these people. That isn’t so easy when it’s a person with whom you share a budget who is upset about how much money you’ve been spending. It isn’t simple when your teen announces that you have 794 rolls of toilet paper by posting a photo of it on social media. It is far from easy when your elderly parent tries to sit you down and explain that you’re going overboard and the current situation is being blown out of proportion. Your kid may miss his social life and do something shockingly stupid, putting everyone in the home at risk and you may have to crack down to a level your spouse thinks is unreasonable.
It’s so hard to do when everyone seems to be working against you. It can make you doubt that you’re doing the right thing by preparing so feverishly. It can make you question whether this looming event is “the big one” we’ve all been talking about and planning for, ever since you became a prepper.
You just have to carry on and do your best within the limitations you have. One day they’re going to be thankful that you did.
The stuff you didn’t see coming
The thing about SHTF events and disasters is that there are always variables. There are often concurrent disasters that make Disaster 1 even worse than it was already. These concurrent disasters may take you completely by surprise.
You cannot think of every variable in the entire world.
I mean, who expected a massive tornado to hit in the middle of a pandemic? Jonesboro, Arkansas probably didn’t but guess what? It happened. Who expected a hurricane in the middle of a pandemic? Guess what? There are 7-9 of them brewing at sea right now. Who planned to have their baby during a pandemic? Well, the pandemic happened and there are buns in ovens and…these babies will be born into the chaos of this crazy time.
Your primary breadwinner could lose his or her job -that’s happened to millions. You could break your leg right before all hell breaks loose. House fires can happen at any point in time. If someone decides to break into your home, it will probably be through some means that never even crossed your mind. A friend of mine who is extremely well-prepared had thought of everything… except an unexpected series of events with loved ones – events that were completely out of her control – which decimated part of her plan and caused her boundless stress.
Stuff is going to happen. Stuff over which you have no control. This is especially true when our entire system is already running differently.
You’re just going to do the best that you can and you’re going to have to be ready to swiftly adapt your plans to your reality.
It’s an SHTF-level disaster
What’s happening in the world right now is just the beginning of an SHTF-level disaster. Now, I’m not saying I expect things to go totally Mad Max this weekend or next, but I am saying that we’re stepping into previously uncharted territory. We’re in the midst of a deadly pandemic and our economy is crashing as officials try to mitigate it. (Look – concurrent disasters!)
Definitely keep prepping in any way that you can, for as long as you can do so safely. But keep in mind that there’s no way you have thought of everything you might need, been able to afford everything you might want, learned every skill that might possibly be needed, and are surrounded only by people who think you’re a genius as you empty the bank accounts buying preps. None of these things constitutes a failure on your part.
You’re human.
You have to stop being so hard on yourself. You have to control your levels of stress. Becoming overly stressed and panicked before the event has even unfolded to an epic SHTF-crisis level is a terrible waste of your energy. It can even lead to you becoming more susceptible to illness.
You can’t think of everything. After all, you’ve never lived through a pandemic, an economic collapse, and months of lockdown before. None of us has. It’s okay to have forgotten things.
We will all run into setbacks and unexpected catastrophes. It’s the nature of this particular beast. When part of our social norms goes to hell, other parts will follow.
It’s your ability to shake off these perceived failures and keep pushing forward that will determine your true level of preparedness. Do the best that you can with the resources that you have and keep your mind clear.
That’s all any of us can do.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--What Happens If The World Runs Out Of Oil Storage?

It was only a matter of time , really .
With demand decimated by the coronavirus and Saudi Arabia on the oil warpath , the imbalance between oil supply and demand deepened dramatically , raising the question of what happens when the world ’ s oil tanks and tankers fill up .
Earlier this month , oil data analytics firm OilX warned that oil in storage around the world could reach 1 billion barrels before long .
This week , Reuters quoted shipping industry sources as saying that as much as 80 million barrels of oil are hanging out in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this oil in floating storage could be even more , at some 100 million barrels .
And the number is only going to grow .
Earlier this week , Bloomberg quoted three sources from the Energy Department as saying the department was discussing whether to start renting out federal storage space to local oil producers as their tanks were filling up and there were no quick buyers for the oil they pump .
Earlier this month , Forbes ’ Gaurav Sharma reported that shipping rates for Very Large Crude Carriers ( VLCCs ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 678 percent in just one month–to $ 175,000 a day–to ship crude from the Middle East to Asia .
A rate increase this large suggests a massive increase in demand for VLCCs .
What ’ s more , this demand for VLCCs does not coincide with a proportional increase in demand for crude .
Traders are hoarding oil .
Reuters ’ Jonathan Saul notes in his report on storage that the last time there was so much oil in floating storage was in 2009 , after the Great Recession .
At the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million barrels .
This time it ’ s anyone ’ s guess how much oil traders and others would accumulate in storage before the demand situation improves .
If forecasts coming in from investment banks and the IEA are any indication , it will be a while before all those barrels are sold .
Goldman Sachs , for one , told CNBC that some grades are already trading below zero because of the devastation the Covid-19 pandemic has inflicted on oil demand .
“ Indeed , given the cost of shutting down a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay someone to dispose of a barrel , implying negative pricing in landlocked areas , ” the bank said .
“ With demand collapsing but supply rising after OPEC and non-affiliated Russia failed to reach a production cut agreement in early March , global inventories could reach their maximum capacity within weeks , ” analysts from Eurasia Group told CNBC , adding “ Already , ports and refiners are turning away oil tankers .
This will put even more downward pressure on prices and pose an existential threat to many companies.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing .
There is virtually no optimistic scenario about oil demand right now , just a couple of months after the IEA and the EIA predicted continued growth for U.S. shale output to over 13 million bpd , and investment banks forecast stable oil prices .
But two months ago , the coronavirus outbreak had not yet become a pandemic .
The situation is , according to many , unprecedented , which means the industry and all other stakeholders are navigating a terra incognita .
Global oil storage capacity has an upper usability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to IHS Markit data cited by Forbes ’ Sharma .
In order to avoid filling tanks and tankers to the brim , producers would have to cut production , and according to IHS Markit , the cut would need to be about 10 million bpd .
It looks like this cut would need to come soon to avoid a collapse in benchmark prices into single-digit territory .
Of course , a question arises here : who will agree to cut so much production ?
The answer : whoever wants to survive the crisis @ @ @ @ @

By Irina Slav
It was only a matter of time, really. With demand decimated by the coronavirus and Saudi Arabia on the oil warpath, the imbalance between oil supply and demand deepened dramatically, raising the question of what happens when the world’s oil tanks and tankers fill up.
The answer? Nothing good.
Earlier this month, oil data analytics firm OilX warned that oil in storage around the world could reach 1 billion barrels before long. This week, Reuters quoted shipping industry sources as saying that as much as 80 million barrels of oil are hanging out in floating storage. OilX has calculated that this oil in floating storage could be even more, at some 100 million barrels.
And the number is only going to grow.
Earlier this week, Bloomberg quoted three sources from the Energy Department as saying the department was discussing whether to start renting out federal storage space to local oil producers as their tanks were filling up and there were no quick buyers for the oil they pump.
Earlier this month, Forbes’ Gaurav Sharma reported that shipping rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) had soared by an insane rate of 678 percent in just one month–to $175,000 a day–to ship crude from the Middle East to Asia. A rate increase this large suggests a massive increase in demand for VLCCs. What’s more, this demand for VLCCs does not coincide with a proportional increase in demand for crude. Traders are hoarding oil.
Reuters’ Jonathan Saul notes in his report on storage that the last time there was so much oil in floating storage was in 2009, after the Great Recession. At the time, oil in floating storage reached 100 million barrels. This time it’s anyone’s guess how much oil traders and others would accumulate in storage before the demand situation improves. If forecasts coming in from investment banks and the IEA are any indication, it will be a while before all those barrels are sold.
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Goldman Sachs, for one, told CNBC that some grades are already trading below zero because of the devastation the Covid-19 pandemic has inflicted on oil demand.
“Indeed, given the cost of shutting down a well, a producer would be willing to pay someone to dispose of a barrel, implying negative pricing in landlocked areas,” the bank said.
“With demand collapsing but supply rising after OPEC and non-affiliated Russia failed to reach a production cut agreement in early March, global inventories could reach their maximum capacity within weeks,” analysts from Eurasia Group told CNBC, adding “Already, ports and refiners are turning away oil tankers. This will put even more downward pressure on prices and pose an existential threat to many companies.”
The group of doomsayers is large and growing. There is virtually no optimistic scenario about oil demand right now, just a couple of months after the IEA and the EIA predicted continued growth for U.S. shale output to over 13 million bpd, and investment banks forecast stable oil prices. But two months ago, the coronavirus outbreak had not yet become a pandemic. The situation is, according to many, unprecedented, which means the industry and all other stakeholders are navigating a terra incognita.
Global oil storage capacity has an upper usability limit of 1.2 billion barrels, according to IHS Markit data cited by Forbes’ Sharma. In order to avoid filling tanks and tankers to the brim, producers would have to cut production, and according to IHS Markit, the cut would need to be about 10 million bpd. It looks like this cut would need to come soon to avoid a collapse in benchmark prices into single-digit territory. Of course, a question arises here: who will agree to cut so much production?
The answer: whoever wants to survive the crisis without too much pain.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--3M is screwing the US — their Distributors are only selling to foreign countries

So what the hell ?
3M is not selling to the US .
Jared Moskowitz is on Tucker Carlson telling how 3M won ’ t sell to the US .
Jared Moskowitz @ JaredEMoskowitz .
@ 3M Hello again .
Director of @ FLSERT here .
I have money , you have masks yet you won ’ t sell them to me .
Stop selling to foreign governments .
Moskowitz said distributors have told him that Florida ’ s orders keep getting snapped up by cash-paying customers .
“ They continue to get pushed down , ” he said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that happen , they say because folks are coming in with cash .
I say , ‘ What do you mean folks are coming in with cash ?
’ They say , ‘ A lot of these factories are in other countries and those other countries are not democracies.
’ ” So this is why President Trump said what he did about 3M in today ’ s press conference : Additionally , the president said he signed “ an element of the [ DPA ] against 3M.
” That order authorizes the head @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face masks from the company he deems necessary for the crisis .
And the administration indicated Thursday that more DPA orders could come soon , possibly related to black market activities .
From today ’ s press briefing : “ We just signed a ( n ) element of the act against 3M , ” President Trump said in his daily coronavirus news conference on Thursday afternoon .
“ Hopefully they will be able to do what they are supposed to do.
” Here ’ s one example of what ’ s going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1860 N95 masks should cost $ 1.27 each , according to a price list 3M issued yesterday , the Canadian dealer was charging more than $ 7 per mask .
But the jacked-up price isn ’ t what killed the deal .
Even the major hospital chains were desperate enough to spend the money .
Instead , the group ’ s purchase began to fall apart when the dealer said that the Canadian military had seized 10 million of the masks and then insisted that the group not only commit to buying the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five additional monthly purchases of 20 million masks , totaling $ 140 million .
U.S.-based company 3M said Friday that it can no longer supply N95 respirators to Canada amid the coronavirus pandemic .
U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered Minnesota-based company to produce and sell as many medical-grade masks as the Federal Emergency Management Agency says it needs .
He invoked the Defence Production Act in order to speed up the distribution of masks .
“ The Administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets , ” a statement from the company read .

So what the hell? 3M is not selling to the US. Jared Moskowitz is on Tucker Carlson telling how 3M won’t sell to the US.
Jared Moskowitz
@JaredEMoskowitz
.
@3M
Hello again. Director of @FLSERT here. I have money, you have masks yet you won’t sell them to me. Stop selling to foreign governments.
.@3M Hello again. Director of @FLSERT here. I have money, you have masks yet you won’t sell them to me. Stop selling to foreign governments. @maddow @Forbes — Jared Moskowitz (@JaredEMoskowitz) April 2, 2020
Moskowitz said distributors have told him that Florida’s orders keep getting snapped up by cash-paying customers.
“They continue to get pushed down,” he said, “and when I ask why does that happen, they say because folks are coming in with cash. I say, ‘What do you mean folks are coming in with cash?’ They say, ‘A lot of these factories are in other countries and those other countries are not democracies.’ ”
www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241707796.html
So this is why President Trump said what he did about 3M in today’s press conference:
Additionally, the president said he signed “an element of the [DPA] against 3M.” That order authorizes the head of FEMA to acquire however many N95 face masks from the company he deems necessary for the crisis. And the administration indicated Thursday that more DPA orders could come soon, possibly related to black market activities.
www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/trump-expands-dpa-order-162128
From today’s press briefing:
“We just signed a(n) element of the act against 3M,” President Trump said in his daily coronavirus news conference on Thursday afternoon. “Hopefully they will be able to do what they are supposed to do.”
www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241707796.html
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Here’s one example of what’s going on with 3M distributors:
Although the 1860 N95 masks should cost $1.27 each, according to a price list 3M issued yesterday, the Canadian dealer was charging more than $7 per mask. But the jacked-up price isn’t what killed the deal. Even the major hospital chains were desperate enough to spend the money. Instead, the group’s purchase began to fall apart when the dealer said that the Canadian military had seized 10 million of the masks and then insisted that the group not only commit to buying the remaining 20 million masks but also to five additional monthly purchases of 20 million masks, totaling $140 million.
theintercept.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-3m-n95-masks-price-gouging/
Trump orders medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada
U.S.-based company 3M said Friday that it can no longer supply N95 respirators to Canada amid the coronavirus pandemic.
U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered Minnesota-based company to produce and sell as many medical-grade masks as the Federal Emergency Management Agency says it needs. He invoked the Defence Production Act in order to speed up the distribution of masks.
“The Administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United States to the Canadian and Latin American markets,” a statement from the company read.
globalnews.ca/news/6772979/coronavirus-3m-n95-respirators-trump-canada/
h/t DH


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports – Could provide a real time proxy for some economic activ

Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports – Could provide a real time proxy for some economic activity

Each Community Mobility Report is broken down by location and displays the change in visits to places like grocery stores @ @ @ @ @ re working to add more countries , regions and languages in the coming weeks .
@ @ @ @ @ and reports will be updated regularly .

What’s a Community Mobility Report?
Each Community Mobility Report is broken down by location and displays the change in visits to places like grocery stores and parks.
We’re working to add more countries, regions and languages in the coming weeks. This is an early release and reports will be updated regularly.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--SBA 7a (forgiveable) loan to small businesses – Frantic Confusion

I wanted to make a short post about the CARE act and what ’ s actually happening on the ground .
I ’ m a lifelong entrepreneur , and I own about 10 small businesses ( of varying size ) .
Background : This last week has been a total clusterfuck of business owners trying to figure out the details of the SBA 7a loans .
The entire week has been information overload .
I probably have 250 emails in my inbox with conflicting information about the process to receive a loan , and the requirements for forgiveness .
Everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available to submit by tomorrow ( Friday ) through your banker .
Current Situation : The banks obviously have no clue what ’ s going on .
Here is a quote from one of the local banks in my area written and sent out today : “ As it stands now , banks are being publicly called on to deliver a program where many of the most basic questions about it , including the terms and conditions under which the loans will be approved , and lenders ’ liability for the loans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This leaves individual lenders unable to decide the parameters of their participation in the program ” .
NOBODY believes that 350 billion is enough to fund all of the loans necessary to small business across the country .
This was confirmed today from the call I received from my BofA rep .
He told me that he just had a call with management , and BofA is going to prioritize those with the largest credit lines to be first in line .
Obviously this works out well for BofA .
He also said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be enough money to fund any CARE act forgivable loans for my companies ( ouch ) .
As you can imagine , business owners are frantic trying to be first in line for this free money grab .
They ’ re about to find out it ’ s not necessarily first come , first serve .
The banks are going to charge origination fees from 5-14 % on each government loan .
I ’ ve heard they ’ re non-refundable , although that last part has not been confirmed .
Each of my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the coronavirus .
Some had revenues of tens of millions go down to almost zero .
Others are down 20 % , and a couple are doing better than ever .
It ’ s very difficult to make strategic decisions on what to do with employees and cash when there is so much uncertainty .
Please don ’ t take any of this as a complaint .
I just wanted to share as much as I could about what ’ s going on for entrepreneurs right now .
Ask any questions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Apacheone
I wanted to make a short post about the CARE act and what’s actually happening on the ground. I’m a lifelong entrepreneur, and I own about 10 small businesses (of varying size).
Background: This last week has been a total clusterfuck of business owners trying to figure out the details of the SBA 7a loans. The entire week has been information overload. I probably have 250 emails in my inbox with conflicting information about the process to receive a loan, and the requirements for forgiveness. Everyone has been told that applications will be available to submit by tomorrow (Friday) through your banker.
Current Situation: The banks obviously have no clue what’s going on. Here is a quote from one of the local banks in my area written and sent out today: “As it stands now, banks are being publicly called on to deliver a program where many of the most basic questions about it, including the terms and conditions under which the loans will be approved, and lenders’ liability for the loans, have not yet been fully addressed. This leaves individual lenders unable to decide the parameters of their participation in the program”.
NOBODY believes that 350 billion is enough to fund all of the loans necessary to small business across the country. This was confirmed today from the call I received from my BofA rep. He told me that he just had a call with management, and BofA is going to prioritize those with the largest credit lines to be first in line. Obviously this works out well for BofA. He also said he didn’t think there would be enough money to fund any CARE act forgivable loans for my companies (ouch). As you can imagine, business owners are frantic trying to be first in line for this free money grab. They’re about to find out it’s not necessarily first come, first serve.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The banks are going to charge origination fees from 5-14% on each government loan. I’ve heard they’re non-refundable, although that last part has not been confirmed.
Each of my companies are in a different position due to the coronavirus. Some had revenues of tens of millions go down to almost zero. Others are down 20%, and a couple are doing better than ever. It’s very difficult to make strategic decisions on what to do with employees and cash when there is so much uncertainty.
Please don’t take any of this as a complaint. I just wanted to share as much as I could about what’s going on for entrepreneurs right now. Ask any questions.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--JPMorgan 2020 2nd quarter guide to the markets.

So I don ’ t normally post these because I think most people are following it to begin with but with the influx of new posters I figured I ’ d throw it up .
• Value factor was the second worst performing factor in the first quarter , had the second highest volatility , and continues to underperformed over the last 15 years .
The space is increasingly crowded and has seemingly been arbed out so much that value now has negative premium .
• momentum once again is a top performer both in volatility , drawdown , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 years there has only been four that experienced an intra- year drop of 34 % or more .
87 , 02 , 08 , and 20 , of those only 1987 ended with positive YOY returns .
• Despite common rhetoric household debt service ratio is at 9.7 % and has sustained lower levels than any other point since 1980 .
• YTD all asset classes are negative outside of Treasuries and MBS and some PMs .
Treasuries are the best performer with average return of 8.2 % .
( Thanks MCS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best diversification for a retail investor !
! )
• with precipitous declines in international equities the United States now accounts for 57 % of the world ’ s market cap .
• Dividends made up a smaller portion of overall return that almost any other decade in history – likely due to share buybacks becoming a preferred method to distribute capital .
• Large cap US and REITS finally dethrone Emerging Markets as the highest returning asset classes over the last 15 years .
There ’ s a whole bunch of other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lookie .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by MasterCookSwag
So I don’t normally post these because I think most people are following it to begin with but with the influx of new posters I figured I’d throw it up.
A few key things I thought were interesting.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Value factor was the second worst performing factor in the first quarter, had the second highest volatility, and continues to underperformed over the last 15 years. The space is increasingly crowded and has seemingly been arbed out so much that value now has negative premium.
momentum once again is a top performer both in volatility, drawdown, and annualized returns.
In the last 40 years there has only been four that experienced an intra- year drop of 34% or more. 87, 02, 08, and 20, of those only 1987 ended with positive YOY returns.
Despite common rhetoric household debt service ratio is at 9.7% and has sustained lower levels than any other point since 1980.
YTD all asset classes are negative outside of Treasuries and MBS and some PMs. Treasuries are the best performer with average return of 8.2%. (Thanks MCS for constantly telling us treasuries are the best diversification for a retail investor!!)
with precipitous declines in international equities the United States now accounts for 57% of the world’s market cap.
Dividends made up a smaller portion of overall return that almost any other decade in history – likely due to share buybacks becoming a preferred method to distribute capital.
Large cap US and REITS finally dethrone Emerging Markets as the highest returning asset classes over the last 15 years.
There’s a whole bunch of other shit in there. Give it a lookie.
am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383407651970/83456/MI-GTM_2Q20-Final.pdf
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Reasons why markets aren’t falling farther

Some of you might be as perplexed as I am as to why the markets didn ’ t fall farther , and why we saw that recent huge rally .
I was holding some puts in anticipation of a bigger drop , and they lost about 90 % of their value over 2 weeks ( I ’ ve since cut my losses ) .
Let ’ s collect and list some of the reasons why markets aren ’ t continuing to fall .
I there ’ s something missing , comment and I ’ ll add it to the list @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • We only have 2 months to go until the shutdown ends ( according to this model which projects April 15 as the peak ) , assuming the shutdown remaining in place through May • Bailout bill is large enough to keep businesses afloat for the next month , maybe two • The recently unemployed are mostly service industry people who will be hired back quickly once businesses reopen • Oil price war may be over soon • Tons and tons of cash has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s flooding into stocks • The Fed ’ s QE program means it ’ s a good time for large funds to rotate out of bonds into stocks • ETFs are the preferred investment vehicle for most people through their 401k or IRAs , and people are trying to “ buy the dip ” or just buying on autopilot • Liquidity lifeline for banks and hedge funds and relaxed reserve requirements means fewer margin calls , less selling pressure • Big funds , HFTs , and maybe even some MMs are waiting on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( which might be why volume dropped a bit recently after a huge surge ) • There isn ’ t enough economic data yet • Earnings reports haven ’ t come out yet • Market already dropped 37 % from high to low • Global liquidity crisis means all central banks are printing money which buoys the US dollar , allowing the Fed to print more money with limited inflation My thoughts : I expected markets to drop another 30-40 % a couple weeks ago , but instead we saw a big 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skeptical of the current situation , but if the virus growth continues to slow we might see that V recovery after all .
I ’ m holding some bonds and a few call LEAPs for QQQ ( tech will do well no matter how things go , IMO ) and USO , as well as October VIX puts .
I ’ m considering buying some RUT puts 3-6 months out to hedge against another big drop .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Do you own due diligence .

by AloneForever
Some of you might be as perplexed as I am as to why the markets didn’t fall farther, and why we saw that recent huge rally. I was holding some puts in anticipation of a bigger drop, and they lost about 90% of their value over 2 weeks (I’ve since cut my losses).
Let’s collect and list some of the reasons why markets aren’t continuing to fall. I there’s something missing, comment and I’ll add it to the list. Here’s the list:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
There’s an expectation of a speedy recovery
We only have 2 months to go until the shutdown ends (according to this model which projects April 15 as the peak), assuming the shutdown remaining in place through May
Bailout bill is large enough to keep businesses afloat for the next month, maybe two
The recently unemployed are mostly service industry people who will be hired back quickly once businesses reopen
Oil price war may be over soon
Tons and tons of cash has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a good time to buy, now it’s flooding into stocks
The Fed’s QE program means it’s a good time for large funds to rotate out of bonds into stocks
ETFs are the preferred investment vehicle for most people through their 401k or IRAs, and people are trying to “buy the dip” or just buying on autopilot
Automatic rebalancing from balanced funds and roboadvisors
Liquidity lifeline for banks and hedge funds and relaxed reserve requirements means fewer margin calls, less selling pressure
Big funds, HFTs, and maybe even some MMs are waiting on the sidelines for things to settle down (which might be why volume dropped a bit recently after a huge surge)
There isn’t enough economic data yet
Earnings reports haven’t come out yet
Market already dropped 37% from high to low
Global liquidity crisis means all central banks are printing money which buoys the US dollar, allowing the Fed to print more money with limited inflation
My thoughts: I expected markets to drop another 30-40% a couple weeks ago, but instead we saw a big 20% jump. I’m still skeptical of the current situation, but if the virus growth continues to slow we might see that V recovery after all. I’m holding some bonds and a few call LEAPs for QQQ (tech will do well no matter how things go, IMO) and USO, as well as October VIX puts. I’m considering buying some RUT puts 3-6 months out to hedge against another big drop.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Working American college students are being fired en-masse and most of them won’t be receiving finan

Working American college students are being fired en-masse and most of them won’t be receiving financial aid:

Individuals earning up to $ 75,000 will receive a check for $ 1,200 , while couples earning up to $ 150,000 will get $ 2,400 .
Additionally , parents will receive $ 500 for each child under 17 .
That leaves out anyone 18 and older , who can still be claimed as dependents on another person ’ s tax return .
In fact , people who can be claimed as a dependent , even if they are not , are not eligible for a payment .
A taxpayer is allowed to claim a full-time student between the ages of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so the parent will not get $ 500 for a college student , nor can the college student generally claim $ 1,200 [ for themselves ] .
Experts predict that COVID19 will have profound impacts on the financial futures of young Americans .
Not only are some [ being ] left out of receiving stimulus relief checks , but young people , ages 16 to 24 , will also be disproportionately affected by COVID19 layoffs .
The Pew Research Center says that nearly half work in service-sector jobs , and make up 24 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

by King_Tendie
TL;DR:
Individuals earning up to $75,000 will receive a check for $1,200, while couples earning up to $150,000 will get $2,400. Additionally, parents will receive $500 for each child under 17. That leaves out anyone 18 and older, who can still be claimed as dependents on another person’s tax return.
In fact, people who can be claimed as a dependent, even if they are not, are not eligible for a payment.
A taxpayer is allowed to claim a full-time student between the ages of 19 and 24 as a dependent, so the parent will not get $500 for a college student, nor can the college student generally claim $1,200 [for themselves].
Experts predict that COVID19 will have profound impacts on the financial futures of young Americans. Not only are some [being] left out of receiving stimulus relief checks, but young people, ages 16 to 24, will also be disproportionately affected by COVID19 layoffs.
The Pew Research Center says that nearly half work in service-sector jobs, and make up 24% of workers in higher-risk industries overall.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--It appears coronavirus searches are decreasing while unemployment searches are at an all time high

I don ’ t really know what to do with this information .
But I ’ ve found it interesting @ @ @ @ @ an unknown fear to a known fear .
Words such as “ death rate ” @ @ @ @ @ .
Perhaps we are done with large drastic swings and whether the market tends up @ @ @ @ @ as a guy that has absolutely no idea what he ’ s talking about ) @ @ @ @ @ least looking at much more gradual ( comparatively ) changes ?

by SellMeAllYourKarma
I don’t really know what to do with this information. But I’ve found it interesting

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=corona
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trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=unemployment

The public is switching from an unknown fear to a known fear. Words such as “death rate” have similar trends to Corona. Perhaps we are done with large drastic swings and whether the market tends up or down, I (as a guy that has absolutely no idea what he’s talking about) believe we will be at least looking at much more gradual (comparatively) changes?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Is the US shooting itself in the foot with a $2 trillion stimulus after lowering tax revenues for th

Is the US shooting itself in the foot with a $2 trillion stimulus after lowering tax revenues for three years, and likely receiving even lower tax revenue years to come?

I haven ’ t seen that many people worried about this .
But basically wondering if the ratios for debt to GDP/federal revenue to debt in the next few years could potentially lead to a collapse of the dollar and the global financial system .
In a nutshell , we are injecting $ 2 trillion into the economy , and potentially a $ 4 trillion more if Trump gets his way .
I haven ’ t run the numbers in detail ( forgive any errors ) , but in 2008 the US was sitting at 60 % debt to GDP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Last year , we had a deficit of $ 1.1 trillion despite our low 3.3 % unemployment and record stock market .
Debt is now $ 22 trillion , and GDP to debt is 105 % , and federal revenue to debt ratio will skyrocket as tax revenues plummet in the coming years due to coronavirus , mass unemployment , and the closure of small businesses .
In a few years , could investors lose faith in purchasing US government debt ?
Would interest rates need to be raised to 10 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenario with the US dollar , i.e .
hyperinflation , austerity , and currency collapse ?

by trashlyfe
I haven’t seen that many people worried about this. But basically wondering if the ratios for debt to GDP/federal revenue to debt in the next few years could potentially lead to a collapse of the dollar and the global financial system.
In a nutshell, we are injecting $2 trillion into the economy, and potentially a $4 trillion more if Trump gets his way. I haven’t run the numbers in detail (forgive any errors), but in 2008 the US was sitting at 60% debt to GDP ratio and $9 trillion of debt. Last year, we had a deficit of $1.1 trillion despite our low 3.3% unemployment and record stock market. Debt is now $22 trillion, and GDP to debt is 105%, and federal revenue to debt ratio will skyrocket as tax revenues plummet in the coming years due to coronavirus, mass unemployment, and the closure of small businesses.
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In a few years, could investors lose faith in purchasing US government debt? Would interest rates need to be raised to 10%? Are we looking at a Greece scenario with the US dollar, i.e. hyperinflation, austerity, and currency collapse?
Are we f*cked?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--DD: Zoom’s reputation hit

DD: Zoom’s reputation hit

TLDR : Zoom client has critical vulnerabilities that could be bad for it ’ s reputation , $ ZM has @ @ @ @ @ ’ s two articles for you describing the vulnerabilities ( TLDR Leakage of OS credentials @ @ @ @ @ Bonus : Papa Musk himself said it : www.reuters.com/article/us-spacex-zoom-video-commn-idUSKBN21J71H

by Kaynard
TLDR: Zoom client has critical vulnerabilities that could be bad for it’s reputation, $ZM has 1600+ P/E right now

Here’s two articles for you describing the vulnerabilities (TLDR Leakage of OS credentials, root access etc)
On Windows : infinitelogins.com/2020/04/01/abusing-zoom-software-to-steal-windows-credentials/On MAC : 9to5mac.com/2020/04/01/new-zoom-bugs-takeover-macs-cam-mic-root/
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Bonus : Papa Musk himself said it : www.reuters.com/article/us-spacex-zoom-video-commn-idUSKBN21J71H
More hacker info : twitter.com/hackerfantastic/status/1245553108681457667
Business wire warning for investors : www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200402005482/en/

Good put/short opportunity?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Oil Production Cuts are Likely

Oil Production Cuts are Likely

The counter to all of the pessimism about an oil deal being reached by OPEC+ states is the shared incentive of wanting higher oil prices and the pain these oil nations are feeling .
People forget that MBS had production increased precisely because he wants higher oil prices eventually , he wanted other nations to reduce output .
If other nations make concessions ( and they ’ re much more willing to now ) then SA making concessions will cause the price to rise .
Texas oil reps are ready to drop production dramatically .
Russia is changing their tune @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at a couple headlines and don ’ t do any further research .
SA called an emergency OPEC meeting .
That happened today .
Russia ’ s energy minister has gone on record saying they ’ ll cut production even if an agreement isn ’ t reached with OPEC .
Putin said yesterday he wants nations to work together to a common goal when it comes to oil .
I ’ m bearish on many things when it comes to this economy , but the view about the plausibility of a deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely won ’ t be as high as Trump tweeted , but I see cuts coming .
This is a game of probabilities and there ’ s a very good chance production cuts are made .

The counter to all of the pessimism about an oil deal being reached by OPEC+ states is the shared incentive of wanting higher oil prices and the pain these oil nations are feeling.
People forget that MBS had production increased precisely because he wants higher oil prices eventually, he wanted other nations to reduce output. If other nations make concessions (and they’re much more willing to now) then SA making concessions will cause the price to rise. Texas oil reps are ready to drop production dramatically. Russia is changing their tune.
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So many people on here just look at a couple headlines and don’t do any further research. SA called an emergency OPEC meeting. That happened today. Russia’s energy minister has gone on record saying they’ll cut production even if an agreement isn’t reached with OPEC. Putin said yesterday he wants nations to work together to a common goal when it comes to oil. I’m bearish on many things when it comes to this economy, but the view about the plausibility of a deal is very skewed here. Production cuts likely won’t be as high as Trump tweeted, but I see cuts coming. This is a game of probabilities and there’s a very good chance production cuts are made.
www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21K1DC
www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN21J3Q9


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--Stocks aren’t trading off economic data; they are trading off the number of COVID-19 cases, the shut

We usually review the internal surveys like the ones from Bank of America to get an idea of where the official data will be .
However , times have changed because of this quick shock to the system .
Stocks aren ’ t trading off economic data ; they are trading off the number of COVID-19 cases , the shutdowns , fiscal policy , monetary policy , and sentiment .
We ’ ve seen many wild sentiment swings that have set up big reversals .
That ’ s how you get stocks rallying on the weakest jobless claims report ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveys and non-traditional reports because they give us a more updated information about the economy .
This is all about finding out how bad it ’ s getting on Main Street to understand how difficult it will be for the economy to recover .
We will never get a less relevant jobs report than the March jobs report which comes out this Friday .
Let ’ s look at the disastrous internal data from Bank of America .
The table below shows the daily trend in spending growth across several industries .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the middle of the month as many people still had their previous paycheck and used it to stock up on the essentials to prepare for the shutdown .
That explains why Redbook same store sales growth in the week of March 21st was 9.1 % .
The stock ups ended towards the end of the month as people actually used the items they bought , didn ’ t have as much money because they lost their jobs , and didn ’ t want to go outside as much .
In the week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales growth fell to 6.3 % .
Specifically , at the peak the 1 week ( yearly ) growth rate in toilet tissue sales was 122.6 % ; it was 102.7 % for food bags .
There has been such a crash in sales that airlines , lodging , and cruises have experienced several days where sales growth was below -100 % .
When growth is below -100 % , it means there were refunds .
What will growth rates be next year when comps are negative ?
Besides those 3 , entertainment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trouble .
According to OpenTable , yearly bookings growth has been 0 since March 21st in America .
The data from Bank of America is probably higher because of deliveries .
Besides groceries , the only source of strength was online electronics .
That ’ s because people are switching to working from home .
The wealthy pulled back on spending more than the poor , not because they are being hit harder than the poor .
They are pulling back because they have more discretionary purchases .
The poor and lower middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groceries which means the stocking up had a greater positive impact on their spending than it did for those that are more wealthy .
As you can see from the chart below , the yearly growth rate in card spending as of March 24th was -36 % for those making over $ 125,000 per year .
Growth was -26 % for those making less than $ 20,000 ; it was -27 % for those making from $ 20,000 to $ 50,000 .
New York Is In Big Trouble From March 18th to March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70 % decline in discretionary spending compared to February .
The situation in NYC is slowly getting better as it was one of the first major hotspots .
The number of new cases per day peaked on March 25th at 3,705 .
The number of new hospitalizations per day peaked on March 27th at 820 .
The number of deaths per day peaked on March 31st at 180 .
You can see the evidence of the shutdown in the data below .
New York has been under a stay at home order since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until April 15th .
The next worry is there will be new hotspots after New York cools down .
If there are , it will push back the national peak in the number of new cases per day .
Previously , we have discussed the near 2009 trough level S & P 400 small cap forward PE ratio .
The chart below shows the same point that small caps are cheap .
As you can see , it reviews the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks with price to book values below 1 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 times cash .
There are more stocks below their book value than the peak in the financial crisis .
The percentage below 3 times cash is elevated , but lower than that peak .
We think that bifurcation has occurred because energy companies are in deep trouble .
These firms might be below their book value , but they don ’ t have much cash as many are going bankrupt .
Also , just because something is cheap , doesn ’ t mean its good .
Valuation isn ’ t a timing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 50.1 to 49.1 in March which beat estimates for 44 .
However , it was a terrible report that was “ helped ” by supplier delivery times .
The delivery times index rose 7.7 points to 65 .
It ’ s not good news that firms couldn ’ t move product quickly because of the shutdown .
The chart below shows excluding deliveries , the index was the weakest since the financial crisis .
New orders fell 7.6 points to 42.2 which was the lowest since the last recession ; the employment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The prices index fell 8.5 points to 37.4 which makes sense because the Bloomberg Commodities prices index recently fell to the lowest point since the mid-1970s .
A machinery firm stated , “ COVID-19 has caused a 30 % reduction in productivity in our factory.
” Spending has been weak especially in discretionary industries such as travel .
Spending growth has fallen the most for the upper middle class and those that are wealthy because they spend the most on discretionary items/services .
New York has been the hardest hit , but there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past few days .
Russell 2000 companies are relatively cheap .
Watch out for value traps and firms that have financing risk .
The ISM manufacturing PMI missed estimates , but the report was very bad .
It appears the services sector is being hit harder than manufacturing though ( based on Markit flash PMI ) .

by UPFINA
We usually review the internal surveys like the ones from Bank of America to get an idea of where the official data will be. However, times have changed because of this quick shock to the system. Stocks aren’t trading off economic data; they are trading off the number of COVID-19 cases, the shutdowns, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and sentiment. We’ve seen many wild sentiment swings that have set up big reversals. That’s how you get stocks rallying on the weakest jobless claims report ever last week.
Now we highlight internal surveys and non-traditional reports because they give us a more updated information about the economy. This is all about finding out how bad it’s getting on Main Street to understand how difficult it will be for the economy to recover. We will never get a less relevant jobs report than the March jobs report which comes out this Friday.
Let’s look at the disastrous internal data from Bank of America. The table below shows the daily trend in spending growth across several industries.
This US consumer spending data by category (down 30% YOY as of 3/24) from @BankofAmerica is stunning. pic.twitter.com/xYzhYR0FTn — Pueo Keffer (@pueokeffer) April 2, 2020
There was a huge spike in groceries spending in the middle of the month as many people still had their previous paycheck and used it to stock up on the essentials to prepare for the shutdown. That explains why Redbook same store sales growth in the week of March 21st was 9.1%. The stock ups ended towards the end of the month as people actually used the items they bought, didn’t have as much money because they lost their jobs, and didn’t want to go outside as much. In the week of March 28th, Redbook same store sales growth fell to 6.3%. Specifically, at the peak the 1 week (yearly) growth rate in toilet tissue sales was 122.6%; it was 102.7% for food bags.
There has been such a crash in sales that airlines, lodging, and cruises have experienced several days where sales growth was below -100%. When growth is below -100%, it means there were refunds. What will growth rates be next year when comps are negative? Besides those 3, entertainment, restaurants, and clothing were in trouble. According to OpenTable, yearly bookings growth has been 0 since March 21st in America. The data from Bank of America is probably higher because of deliveries. Besides groceries, the only source of strength was online electronics. That’s because people are switching to working from home.
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The Wealthy Are Pulling Back
The wealthy pulled back on spending more than the poor, not because they are being hit harder than the poor. They are pulling back because they have more discretionary purchases. The poor and lower middle class spend much of their budgets on groceries which means the stocking up had a greater positive impact on their spending than it did for those that are more wealthy. As you can see from the chart below, the yearly growth rate in card spending as of March 24th was -36% for those making over $125,000 per year. Growth was -26% for those making less than $20,000; it was -27% for those making from $20,000 to $50,000.
New York Is In Big Trouble
From March 18th to March 24th, New York had a nearly 70% decline in discretionary spending compared to February. The situation in NYC is slowly getting better as it was one of the first major hotspots. The number of new cases per day peaked on March 25th at 3,705. The number of new hospitalizations per day peaked on March 27th at 820. The number of deaths per day peaked on March 31st at 180. You can see the evidence of the shutdown in the data below. New York has been under a stay at home order since March 20th which will last at least until April 15th. The next worry is there will be new hotspots after New York cools down. If there are, it will push back the national peak in the number of new cases per day.
Russell 2000 Below Book Value
Previously, we have discussed the near 2009 trough level S&P 400 small cap forward PE ratio. The chart below shows the same point that small caps are cheap. As you can see, it reviews the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks with price to book values below 1 and the percentage of stocks valued at under 3 times cash.
ICYMI: A remarkable 51% of the Russell 2000 is now trading below book value. MB #DriehausUSGrowth pic.twitter.com/S67TsBAwWm — Driehaus (@DriehausCapital) March 28, 2020
There are more stocks below their book value than the peak in the financial crisis. The percentage below 3 times cash is elevated, but lower than that peak. We think that bifurcation has occurred because energy companies are in deep trouble. These firms might be below their book value, but they don’t have much cash as many are going bankrupt. Also, just because something is cheap, doesn’t mean its good. Valuation isn’t a timing mechanism.
Weak March ISM Manufacturing
The ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.1 in March which beat estimates for 44. However, it was a terrible report that was “helped” by supplier delivery times. The delivery times index rose 7.7 points to 65. It’s not good news that firms couldn’t move product quickly because of the shutdown. The chart below shows excluding deliveries, the index was the weakest since the financial crisis. New orders fell 7.6 points to 42.2 which was the lowest since the last recession; the employment index fell 3.1 points to 43.8. The prices index fell 8.5 points to 37.4 which makes sense because the Bloomberg Commodities prices index recently fell to the lowest point since the mid-1970s. A machinery firm stated, “COVID-19 has caused a 30% reduction in productivity in our factory.”
#Coronavirus-related supply problems: stress on supply chains from #China disruption were initial issue, stress on food/beverage supply chains reflect economics of "fear", upcoming stress from collapsing demand will reflect economics of "sudden stops" via @OxfordEconomics @ism pic.twitter.com/uAfQfPyviE — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) April 1, 2020
Conclusion
Spending has been weak especially in discretionary industries such as travel. Spending growth has fallen the most for the upper middle class and those that are wealthy because they spend the most on discretionary items/services. New York has been the hardest hit, but there have been signs of COVID-19 improvement in the past few days. Russell 2000 companies are relatively cheap. Watch out for value traps and firms that have financing risk. The ISM manufacturing PMI missed estimates, but the report was very bad. It appears the services sector is being hit harder than manufacturing though (based on Markit flash PMI).


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--China-Backed Bloomberg Finally Admits to Beijngs’ Coronavirus Coverup

Sellouts finally bite the hand that feeds them their talking points : archive.vn/xXvhW

Sellouts finally bite the hand that feeds them their talking points: archive.vn/xXvhW
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-03--$560 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds were downgraded last month. Short term Covid Recess

$560 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds were downgraded last month. Short term Covid Recession or long term corporate-debt Depression?

Although some believe that QE and Central Bank purchases are sufficient to reduce credit spreads , investment-graded corporate bond downgrades are on a 20-year high .
I keep hearing on most media and among us retailers that the state of the wider economy will be bad for now but that the economy is much stronger than 2008 and the previous recession and we should get a quicker V shaped recovery .
I ’ m confused by this narrative… Global debt has nearly risen two-fold , it is now 85 % higher in 2019 than 2008 , as we have tried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has stagnated , asset prices have ballooned way above wages and real-wage growth has reversed and has now been declining since 2015 .
At the same time we ’ ve seen incredible stock market growth , some 120 % on the S & P in the decade 2010-20 , in my limited understanding in part due to attempted inflationary monetary policy like QE etc .
That lending increase since 2008 , on the back of very low interest rates and next to no inflation , means it ’ s very easy for large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sky .
So the 2008 mortgage backed debt default warning seems to me to have gone largely ignored .
Many companies of all sizes look ripe for bankruptcy due to pretty tenuous balance sheets after lots of spending on buybacks , lack of investment in growth and lack of protection against demand or supply shocks ( like this one right now ) .
Ray Dalio ( big fan ) has been pointing out for years we are due a massive correction as part of a long running debt cycle and we should see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depression , drawing many parallels with the 1920-30 ’ s global geopolitical atmosphere and today .
I would highly encourage delving into one of his longer interviews or one of his books on the crises ( below ) where he explains the historical and macro economic precedent and the reasoning he uses .
2018 interview explaining economic theory of the idea in which he predicts a lot of the corporate debt issues that are slowly coming out right now : link to his free open source book on the possible crisis : www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/Principles-For-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises-By-Ray-Dalio.pdf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the wider economic indicators are not so bullish and IMHO are not being talked about anywhere near as much as they should .
I can ’ t help but feel we ’ re not headed for a 30-40 % two quarter recession but that cyclical depression which could reset some of the global economic foundations and concurrently cause much greater market pain than many of us are thinking which will last not 6 months to 2 years but far far longer .
The Dow took 29 years to reach it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5100 points , 1929-58 ) .
It will deepen and prolong a U.S. recession regardless of Fed intervention .
Coronavirus Is Unleashing an ‘ Economic Shock Wave ’ Not Felt Since the 1930s The Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO and CIO sees the Great Depression as the closest comparison to what ’ s happening to the coronavirus ravaged economy .
This recession will finally end the private-sector ‘ debt supercycle , ’ says firm that invented the term

by WolfOfWoolStreet
Although some believe that QE and Central Bank purchases are sufficient to reduce credit spreads, investment-graded corporate bond downgrades are on a 20-year high.
I keep hearing on most media and among us retailers that the state of the wider economy will be bad for now but that the economy is much stronger than 2008 and the previous recession and we should get a quicker V shaped recovery. I’m confused by this narrative…
Global debt has nearly risen two-fold, it is now 85% higher in 2019 than 2008, as we have tried to pump up deflating economies. Inflation has stagnated, asset prices have ballooned way above wages and real-wage growth has reversed and has now been declining since 2015. At the same time we’ve seen incredible stock market growth, some 120% on the S&P in the decade 2010-20, in my limited understanding in part due to attempted inflationary monetary policy like QE etc.
That lending increase since 2008 ,on the back of very low interest rates and next to no inflation, means it’s very easy for large caps in particular to leverage to the sky. So the 2008 mortgage backed debt default warning seems to me to have gone largely ignored. Many companies of all sizes look ripe for bankruptcy due to pretty tenuous balance sheets after lots of spending on buybacks, lack of investment in growth and lack of protection against demand or supply shocks (like this one right now).
Ray Dalio (big fan) has been pointing out for years we are due a massive correction as part of a long running debt cycle and we should see a crisis the like of the great depression, drawing many parallels with the 1920-30’s global geopolitical atmosphere and today. I would highly encourage delving into one of his longer interviews or one of his books on the crises (below) where he explains the historical and macro economic precedent and the reasoning he uses.
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2018 interview explaining economic theory of the idea in which he predicts a lot of the corporate debt issues that are slowly coming out right now:
link to his free open source book on the possible crisis: www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/Principles-For-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises-By-Ray-Dalio.pdf
The Covid affects might be comparatively limited but the wider economic indicators are not so bullish and IMHO are not being talked about anywhere near as much as they should. I can’t help but feel we’re not headed for a 30-40% two quarter recession but that cyclical depression which could reset some of the global economic foundations and concurrently cause much greater market pain than many of us are thinking which will last not 6 months to 2 years but far far longer. The Dow took 29 years to reach it’s previous high after the great depression (5100 points, 1929-58).
It will deepen and prolong a U.S. recession regardless of Fed intervention.
The Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO and CIO sees the Great Depression as the closest comparison to what’s happening to the coronavirus ravaged economy.