investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Covid19 is not fake, but the media is lying about its details.

It ’ s a lot more contagious than they say and a lot less danger than they say .
There ’ s only 3 reasons Covid19 will actually kill you : • Underlying severe health problems , especially with the lungs , that affect your overall health ( whether you know you have it or not ) .
• You ’ re one of the adrenocrome users that takes part in the Illuminati ’ s satanic rituals involving a large number of the children that “ mysteriously ” go missing every year .
Think about it..
It ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get used to it .
The flu as well as many other common illnesses were new once .
Humans had to push through it and now , since it comes every year , hardly anyone cares about it .
The numbers that the media is giving you is wrong .
There are many cases of the doctors not actually testing someone because their symptoms were like a simple cold .
So , it doesn ’ t get marked as a confirmed case .
There have been many cases of people drying from anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accident ) that they do the tests on .
If it comes back as positive , they are marking it as a Covid death .
What they are hiding is the fact that the majority of people who “ didn ’ t get Covid ” more than likely did get it and were either asymptomatic or it barely affected them .
Why ?
Because they want to control you by making you fear .
My advice ?
Stop panicking , wear a mask in the stores that require one ( because it won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calmly argue back about your rights as a person on this planet .
Also ( for citizens of the US ) , Biden wants you to wear a mask while you ’ re outside by yourself and he couldn ’ t even say the pledge of allegiance correctly .
I ’ m not telling you to vote for , but I wouldn ’ t want someone who doesn ’ t know something that basic about a country to run it .
Edit : More people die of starvation everyday than Covid19 , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causes for starving people on one continent to actually show you how to help the people in your own country .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by SanguineMara
It’s a lot more contagious than they say and a lot less danger than they say. There’s only 3 reasons Covid19 will actually kill you:
Already weakened immune system. Underlying severe health problems, especially with the lungs, that affect your overall health (whether you know you have it or not). You’re one of the adrenocrome users that takes part in the Illuminati’s satanic rituals involving a large number of the children that “mysteriously” go missing every year.
Think about it.. It’s a new virus and our bodies need to get used to it. The flu as well as many other common illnesses were new once. Humans had to push through it and now, since it comes every year, hardly anyone cares about it.
The numbers that the media is giving you is wrong. There are many cases of the doctors not actually testing someone because their symptoms were like a simple cold. So, it doesn’t get marked as a confirmed case. There have been many cases of people drying from anything other than Covid19 (like a car accident) that they do the tests on. If it comes back as positive, they are marking it as a Covid death.
What they are hiding is the fact that the majority of people who “didn’t get Covid” more than likely did get it and were either asymptomatic or it barely affected them. Why? Because they want to control you by making you fear.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
My advice? Stop panicking, wear a mask in the stores that require one (because it won’t kill you), and calmly argue back about your rights as a person on this planet.
Also (for citizens of the US), Biden wants you to wear a mask while you’re outside by yourself and he couldn’t even say the pledge of allegiance correctly. I’m not telling you to vote for, but I wouldn’t want someone who doesn’t know something that basic about a country to run it.
Edit: More people die of starvation everyday than Covid19, but the media is too busy promoting stereotyped causes for starving people on one continent to actually show you how to help the people in your own country.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Video of Louisville protesters being directed to a UHAUL van filled with “shields”. Someone is fundi

Video of Louisville protesters being directed to a UHAUL van filled with “shields”. Someone is funding this.

Conflict Observer : — `` Renter of Louisville protest Uhauls , handing out shields/axes/hammers , works for `` The Bail @ @ @ @ @ of Google search results for `` Soros 'Bail Project ' '' shows at least 2 @ @ @ @ @ Justice Fellows '' '' pic.twitter.com/HBRdXGiNca

Conflict Observer:
— "Renter of Louisville protest Uhauls, handing out shields/axes/hammers, works for "The Bail Project".
First page of Google search results for "Soros 'Bail Project'" shows at least 2 employees who are/were "Soros Justice Fellows"" pic.twitter.com/HBRdXGiNca
— Dogz Bollox🏴Right Wing News (@Bollocks_Dogz) September 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--COVID-19 mortality rates down as treatments improve, doctors gain experience

( Natural News ) Coronavirus infections continue to kill almost 1,000 Americans daily .
Still , those with dangerous cases have a higher chance of survival — thanks to great strides in medical care and the growing experience of doctors .
Mayo Clinic COVID Research Task Force head Andrew Badley said in an interview that the healthcare sector ’ s preparedness is “ much better ” today compared with February and March .
He added that better and faster diagnosis , more knowledge about which drugs to administer and more experimental treatments becoming available contributed to a possible dive in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many valuable lessons since January 2020 , when the first coronavirus cases appeared in the United States .
These include ensuring hospitals do not run out of ICU beds and ventilators , laying patients on their stomach , administering steroids early on and treating patients with blood thinners .
Leora Horwitz , an associate professor of population health and medicine at New York University ’ s Grossman School of Medicine , warned that even with the improvements in healthcare , the coronavirus is in no way a non-dangerous disease and still remains a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” To note , the U.S. already has 200,000 fatalities , with thousands of Americans getting infected each day .
The number of COVID-19 fatalities largely depends on the number of infected people in the first place ; when more people get sick , more die as a result .
Healthcare workers picked up important points from initial outbreak in New York When the coronavirus first hit New York City , doctors in the city only had limited knowledge about it as cases poured into emergency rooms .
More than 27,000 deaths from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been recorded in the city .
A huge chunk of the deaths in New York City happened during the outbreak ’ s peak in March and April .
Meanwhile , healthcare workers in different areas such as Texas had more time to prepare and learn what works based on what happened in New York City – in anticipation of the coronavirus ’ arrival .
Robert Hancock , president of the Texas College of Emergency Physicians , said that the group already had some “ playbook ” for treating coronavirus patients .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ understand the things that work … with COVID-19 much better.
” Meanwhile , Texas Medical Association President Diana Fite said that introducing blood thinners such as Heparin at the soonest helped coronavirus patients recover .
“ A lot of these deaths … are because of the blood coagulation ; the blood clots ruin their organs , ” she said .
“ Even if these things aren ’ t cures , they help a small percentage do better .
You add several of those things up and you ’ ve got a better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found to cause blood clots in younger patients , increased risk of bleeding in at-risk patients . )
It is still more prudent to protect one ’ s self from the coronavirus from square one Despite the advances in healthcare , it is still more prudent to protect one ’ s self from COVID-19 instead of waiting for hospitalization .
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) published a list of to-dos for people to avoid being infected with the coronavirus .
These include frequent hand washing , avoiding close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when sneezing , cleaning and disinfecting daily , monitoring one ’ s health every day and wearing a mask as health protocols for everyone to follow .
CDC Director Robert Redfield told lawmakers during a Sept. 16 Senate hearing that using a face mask is “ more guaranteed ” to protect against COVID-19 compared to getting a coronavirus jab .
The CDC has emphasized that a mask is still the best protection available for most people , given that an actual vaccine for the coronavirus is still under development and any finished vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have warned that even seemingly healthy individuals are still at risk from the coronavirus .
In case the vaccine fails to build an immune response to the coronavirus in healthy people , the mask will still provide protection .
According to data from Johns Hopkins University , the U.S. has the highest worldwide COVID-19 caseload at 6.8 million , with 200,814 fatalities and 2.6 million recoveries recorded .
Read more news about the ongoing Wuhan coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. and other countries at Pandemic.news .

by: Ramon Tomey
(Natural News) Coronavirus infections continue to kill almost 1,000 Americans daily. Still, those with dangerous cases have a higher chance of survival — thanks to great strides in medical care and the growing experience of doctors.
Mayo Clinic COVID Research Task Force head Andrew Badley said in an interview that the healthcare sector’s preparedness is “much better” today compared with February and March. He added that better and faster diagnosis, more knowledge about which drugs to administer and more experimental treatments becoming available contributed to a possible dive in the mortality rate.
Doctors had learned many valuable lessons since January 2020, when the first coronavirus cases appeared in the United States. These include ensuring hospitals do not run out of ICU beds and ventilators, laying patients on their stomach, administering steroids early on and treating patients with blood thinners.
Leora Horwitz, an associate professor of population health and medicine at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, warned that even with the improvements in healthcare, the coronavirus is in no way a non-dangerous disease and still remains a “very serious threat to public health.”
To note, the U.S. already has 200,000 fatalities, with thousands of Americans getting infected each day. The number of COVID-19 fatalities largely depends on the number of infected people in the first place; when more people get sick, more die as a result.
Healthcare workers picked up important points from initial outbreak in New York
When the coronavirus first hit New York City, doctors in the city only had limited knowledge about it as cases poured into emergency rooms. More than 27,000 deaths from COVID-19 – both probable and confirmed – have been recorded in the city. A huge chunk of the deaths in New York City happened during the outbreak’s peak in March and April.
Meanwhile, healthcare workers in different areas such as Texas had more time to prepare and learn what works based on what happened in New York City – in anticipation of the coronavirus’ arrival.
Robert Hancock, president of the Texas College of Emergency Physicians, said that the group already had some “playbook” for treating coronavirus patients. This, he added, made healthcare workers “understand the things that work … with COVID-19 much better.”
Meanwhile, Texas Medical Association President Diana Fite said that introducing blood thinners such as Heparin at the soonest helped coronavirus patients recover. “A lot of these deaths … are because of the blood coagulation; the blood clots ruin their organs,” she said. “Even if these things aren’t cures, they help a small percentage do better. You add several of those things up and you’ve got a better outcome overall.” (Related: Coronavirus found to cause blood clots in younger patients, increased risk of bleeding in at-risk patients.)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It is still more prudent to protect one’s self from the coronavirus from square one
Despite the advances in healthcare, it is still more prudent to protect one’s self from COVID-19 instead of waiting for hospitalization.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a list of to-dos for people to avoid being infected with the coronavirus. These include frequent hand washing, avoiding close contact, covering one’s mouth when sneezing, cleaning and disinfecting daily, monitoring one’s health every day and wearing a mask as health protocols for everyone to follow.
CDC Director Robert Redfield told lawmakers during a Sept. 16 Senate hearing that using a face mask is “more guaranteed” to protect against COVID-19 compared to getting a coronavirus jab.
The CDC has emphasized that a mask is still the best protection available for most people, given that an actual vaccine for the coronavirus is still under development and any finished vaccine might not work for everyone.
Experts have warned that even seemingly healthy individuals are still at risk from the coronavirus. In case the vaccine fails to build an immune response to the coronavirus in healthy people, the mask will still provide protection.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. has the highest worldwide COVID-19 caseload at 6.8 million, with 200,814 fatalities and 2.6 million recoveries recorded.
Read more news about the ongoing Wuhan coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. and other countries at Pandemic.news.
Sources include:
Bloomberg.com
CDC.gov


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Russian Tax Authorities Will Exempt Crypto Assets If Investor Do Not Declare It

Russia has taken a different turn – with the Ministry of Finance considering take some measures to achieve agreement in terms to crypto-assets regulations .
Kommersant reported that the ministry could prosecute undeclared possession of crypt with fines according to new regulations introduced by the ministry .
In order to address new iterations of the bill “ to be introduced in relation to ” the first-ever crypto law of Russia , which entails entry into force on January 1 , 2021 , the Department of Finance will meet with stakeholders and decision-makers this week .
But the new plans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , seem to enforce what looks like punitive sanctions on the holders of cryptography that do not let the state know how the world of cryptography is doing .
The media announced that the regulations mandate tax authorities to be aware of all entities who have earned more than 1,300 USD in a calendar year .
An annual record of your transaction history and the balance of your crypto assets will be needed for crypto owners .
If this is achieved , a minimum fine of approximately 650 USD – or up to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holdings of a person – would be levied .
However , the liability is not restricted to fines .
If more than 1 million rubles a year is transferred into it , the failure to disclose a cryptographic wallet is considered to be a criminal activity and could lead to up to three years in prison .

Russia has taken a different turn – with the Ministry of Finance considering take some measures to achieve agreement in terms to crypto-assets regulations.
Kommersant reported that the ministry could prosecute undeclared possession of crypt with fines according to new regulations introduced by the ministry.
In order to address new iterations of the bill “to be introduced in relation to” the first-ever crypto law of Russia, which entails entry into force on January 1, 2021, the Department of Finance will meet with stakeholders and decision-makers this week. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The terms of the notification of the tax authorities:
Availability of more than 100 thousand rubles
Turnover for the wallet of over 1 million rubles per year
But the new plans, which Kommersant said he saw versions of, seem to enforce what looks like punitive sanctions on the holders of cryptography that do not let the state know how the world of cryptography is doing.
The media announced that the regulations mandate tax authorities to be aware of all entities who have earned more than 1,300 USD in a calendar year. An annual record of your transaction history and the balance of your crypto assets will be needed for crypto owners.
If this is achieved, a minimum fine of approximately 650 USD – or up to 30% of the total crypto asset holdings of a person – would be levied.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Executive – Employee Catch-22 Jeopardizes The Recovery

The Catch-22 is this : will not hire until they see sustainable sales growth and will not spend until they feel confident about their job future .
The challenge for executives and employees is sustainable employment .
They both look for the other to take the first step to achieve sustainable employment .
The recovery will not gain momentum until executives gain confidence in future sales .
Employees will not buy as much as the executives prefer until the threat of layoffs abates and hiring resumes .
Executives need to see customers actively buying goods and services for at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confidence in sustainable sales .
Then , management may begin hiring .
If sales fall or become weak executives freeze hiring , end contractor work and permanently lay off employees .
As such , , employees are worried about losing their jobs .
A Gallup survey found more than 25 % percent of all employees are concerned about future layoffs .
If the present slow decline in economic activity accelerates it will cause executives to freeze hiring and consumers to further curtail spending .
We examine the standoff from both the executive and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Executives Look for Solid Sales Growth Before Hiring • Executive – Employee Catch 22 Likely To Resolve To Downside Executives Look For Solid Sales Growth Before Hiring S & P 100 corporations achieve about 65 % of their sales and 70 – 75 % of their profits from international sales .
World trade fell before the pandemic .
The pandemic magnifies the decline in sales and will likely delay a worldwide sales recovery .
The following chart shows world trade fell 12.5 % in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 , though trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managers can not look to weak international sales to offset weak domestic sales .
The next chart shows sales for corporations who rely on international sales revenue fell by 15.3 % .
For all corporations , sales fell by 9.8 % in the 2nd Quarter .
The weakness in sales for internationally based businesses confirms the weak trade outlook .
The outlook for domestic sales is uncertain without a new relief package from Congress .
Thus , managers will hesitate to make any firm hiring commitments .
For all S & P 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were even worse than revenues down by 33.8 % .
Executives were caught off guard by the pandemic in mid – March .
Most executives were expecting the pandemic to be controlled by the summer so they maintained staffing levels .
Management furloughed some employees , paid overhead costs for empty offices , and held inventories as sales dropped .
Managers try to keep costs in line with revenues .
So , when earning fell 3 times revenues they will look to cut costs .
There is extreme pressure on management to cuts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all costs , so more layoffs are likely .
The following chart shows new orders versus employment in manufacturing companies .
The August ISM Manufacturing Survey shows increases in new orders , yet employment stalls at contraction levels .
The fact that management holds off on hiring confirms their concern about sustainable sales .
This chart from the Track The Recovery Project indicates a significant decline in new job postings by 35 % .
We think management will continue to cut back .
The decline in new job postings is another indicator of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth .
The following graph shows temporary worker layoffs versus permanent worker layoffs .
Temporary worker layoffs surged at the beginning of the pandemic as management thought the virus would soon be controlled .
However , as virus infections increased and lockdowns stayed in place longer than expected temporary layoffs decreased while permanent layoffs increased .
The increase in permanent layoffs means out-of-work adults will reduce spending until employment prospects turn positive .
Executives are looking for solid consumer spending before resuming hiring .
In highly uncertain economic conditions managers will invest in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cutting programs before hiring .
As a last resort , if they absolutely need new staff managers , they hire temporary workers before hiring full time employees .
Managers view hiring of any new employee with a combination of confidence and risk .
Supervisors hire the new worker with confidence that they will be successful in their new role .
But , often it is not clear the new hire will be successful in the job for 6 – 12 months .
Plus , hiring a new employee costs 25 – 40 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If an executive makes a hiring mistake it is not only costly to the worker but could hurt productivity , reduce sales , or delay product development .
Besides the individual candidate executives assess the general economic climate .
Today ’ s deteriorating economic trends are a major concern for hiring managers .
Economic headwinds include : surging pandemic infections , falling international and domestic sales , rising trade tensions with China and allies , tightening regulations by a possibly new Congress and President , and the delaying of a fiscal stimulus package @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs engine of the U.S. economy .
In 2019 , small businesses created 1.5M jobs for 64 % of total business new hires .
Plus , small businesses provided 50 % of all economic output and 60M jobs accounting for 47 % of the labor force .
Profitability is a major challenge as 40 % of small businesses are profitable .
The other 60 % break even or losing money .
Most small business owners have only 30 days of free cash flow , thus limiting their ability to handle a long term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pulse Survey found millions of small businesses struggling 47 % of small businesses do not expect to return to normal operations for at least 6 months , and only 25 % have done so .
The Homebase activity chart below shows small business employment at 25 % below pre pandemic levels .
Business hours are reduced as well .
Owners are forced to lay off more workers when business hours are reduced .
Activity and mobility surveys confirm that small business sales are 40 – 50 % down from pre pandemic levels in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below in other regions .
Many services businesses and restaurants in core cities face a continuing loss of customers due to a permanent shift to working from home .
Densely populated cities have seen as much as a 30 % reduction in activity as professionals leave cities and purchase homes in the suburbs or lower cost rural areas .
A recent survey showed 15 % of workers have permanently left San Francisco for housing elsewhere .
In addition , thousands of professionals have left Manhattan with the city experiencing only a 30 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses are experiencing losses in the suburbs as well .
In the suburbs of San Francisco , Google has cut catering by 80 % and Facebook by 70 % .
Independent apartment building owners manage half the units rented in the U.S .
Independent landlords worry about missed rent payments .
Federal CDC and state moratoriums provide rent payment forbearance until January 1st .
Yet , eight million independent multiple unit owners still must make mortgage payments each month .
Thirty-three percent of renters did not make their August payment .
If these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon landlords will default on mortgage loans .
Plus , they may be forced to sell their units in a weak multi-unit real estate market .
In January it will become evident how significant a problem landlord defaults will become when renters must begin paying back $ 35 billion due .
The looming issue is that if thousands of landlords default it could impact the $ 11 trillion mortgage industry and property tax income to local cities and schools .
Enterprising services providers shift yoga classes , and personal fitness sessions to Zoom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to customers wary of coming to their location .
One restaurant offers dinner parties via Zoom , where participants receive ingredients in advance and cook with a chef .
Other entrepreneurs create businesses focused on work from home consumer needs like remote learning and child care for pods of students .
The challenge is that most small businesses are not funded to handle a long term sales decline for years as well as major corporations are funded to handle .
In a September a Goldman Sachs survey of 860 small businesses shows that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run out of the their Payroll Protection Plan ( PPP ) funds .
Only 65 % reported they thought they would survive through the pandemic .
About 30 % of owners note they will run out of cash by yearend without the renewal of PPP loans .
While most owners report operating full hours , sales are down between 20 – 50 % from pre pandemic levels .
On the positive side there was a surge of 5 % to 14 % who said they were managing the transformation of their business well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All types of employees are concerned about future layoffs .
As a recent Gallup survey shows 27 % of workers are worried with 29M workers on unemployment and job prospects dimming .
Many employees express job security concerns beyond income because their employer provides health insurance .
If workers lose their job , they lose their health insurance .
Jobless workers find private insurance too expensive .
Holding a job with a sustainable income stream with health benefits is crucial to building consumer confidence .
Possible layoffs create anxiety over income and health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Job security must increase with the pandemic under control before consumer spending can grow .
Two Distinct Employee Groups – One Secure , Other Insecure In our post , A Tale of Two Economies we identified two groups of employees , professionals and workers .
Professionals are college graduates who work from home and have job security .
During the pandemic professionals are spending on cars , homes , and home improvement products .
The worker group of high school graduates are required to work at offices , stores , factories and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home employees were laid off temporarily in March .
Managers hoped to rehire workers quickly after the pandemic was controlled .
The pandemic is not under control so millions of workers have been permanently laid off .
Worker job confidence is being undermined by headlines of major layoffs at companies in major sectors like hospitality , consumer beverage , entertainment , media , auto and even high tech .
Most workers are being squeezed between mounting bills and lost income .
Many working class families do not have enough money even for food @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The majority of 29M adults on unemployment assistance are in the workers group .
The following chart highlights the stark contrast in job , income and health situation for each group : Starting with the contrast in ability to work from home versus factory , the two groups have been at opposite financial positions during the crisis .
Professionals believe they can handle the crisis .
High tech employees at information services companies like Apple , Google , Facebook and Netflix feel secure as sales increase , though these high growth sales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers across multiple sectors there actually was an increase in employment .
Higher income workers had three times the number of households with ‘ rainy day ’ funds , two times the health insurance coverage , and are much less vulnerable to catch the coronavirus .
Yet , home owners across both employment groups are financially pinched as mortgage delinquencies surged to 8.2 % in August from previous month ’ s 6.1 % .
Worker group adults face high rates of eviction , are more anxious about making house payments and have limited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of small business are owned by high school graduates .
So , many owners will not be able to switch careers by taking a professional job at a major corporation .
Some professionals working remotely enjoy the same high salary and benefits packages as when they worked in their company core office location .
Yet , other WFH professionals saw their salaries cut .
Twitter and VMware announced salary cuts ranging from 8 – 18 % for workers who take a permanent WFH option outside the Bay Area .
We expect that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a way to hire other less expensive employees they will reduce salaries of remote workers .
The new reality of permanent remote work will cause pay for remote professionals to decline over time .
Executives will always be looking for ways to cut costs while maintaining high levels of quality and productivity .
Besides , managers will promote work from home as an alternative to office work to reduce office space costs .
The following chart shows spending in all income categories is falling after a peak in early August .
The spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low income consumers to -10.6 % for those with high incomes .
Total spending slid by 7.3 % by August 30th compared to the January baseline .
The recovery in spending reached a peak in mid-August and continues to decline ever since .
The following chart of consumer spending versus income shows how spending stalled after a recovery .
A conundrum is emerging about the actual spending of consumers , compared to their income .
The April CARES Act temporally boosted incomes .
All consumers received $ 1,200 checks , and people on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per week .
Yet , when income is compared to spending adults are holding onto their cash as bank account and savings balances are surging .
Consumers are still concerned with the reduction of unemployment to $ 300 per week in most states running out by the end of September .
Workers reporting they can not pay for household basics from unemployment assistance rose to 50 % in August compared to 27 % in July .
The stall in consumer spending is confirmed by a recent leveling off of consumer expectations in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Source : The University of Michigan , The Daily Shot – 8/28/20 Advertisers See Possible Drop In Consumer Spending Since last March , broadcast network advertising sales slide but held steady for digital streaming services and the social media outlets .
Advertising managers run ad budgets as a percentage of consumer sales .
For existing product lines when sales drop ad spending will be reduced to reflect the sales decline .
This fall advertising contracts are being negotiated with unusual provisions to allow advertisers to drop or reschedule up to 50 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a with no penalties shows they are concerned about a possible sharp drop in consumer spending .
Google and Facebook have 60 % of total U.S. ad spending with 71 % of their revenue from advertising .
A sustained advertising sales decline is likely to result in layoffs of both administrative and professional staff in these high tech giants .
Executive – Employee Catch 22 Likely To Resolve To The Downside Economic trends favor major corporations continuing to increase market share at the expense of smaller businesses .
Professionals will retain their jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ modest levels .
Executives will freeze hiring based on concerns about a virus second wave , world trade sales declines and possible new government regulation from a new administration .
Workers in the 80 % income segment working onsite will continue to face COVID-19 infection uncertainty , continuing layoffs and mounting rental debts .
Headlines announcing thousands of layoffs from major companies will undermine consumer confidence .
There have been 1.84M permanent corporate jobs cuts since January , the highest number since a similar period in 2001 according to Challenger , Gray and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is possible spending by cash rich firms .
About 40 % of S & P companies still planning on stock buybacks in 2020 .
Executives seeing a declining economy may opt to invest in retaining their workers to build new products and increase sales .
Announced stock buybacks of $ 400 billion would be better invested in productivity improvements , new product development , increased market , employee retention , sick leave and child care benefits , and paying off debt .
However , it remains to be seen if executives will in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Spending May Sharply Decline in 1st Quarter 2021 The federal rent moratorium policy and a similar moratorium in California will end on December 31st .
Renters are still required to pay 25 % of their total rent due by yearend and then workout a payback program with their landlord for the balance due beginning in January Independent landlords are looking for $ 35 billion in rent overdue rent payments to begin in January .
A nexus is building of evictions , rent and mortgage debt balances due , small business closures , permanent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 300 boost in unemployment benefits and no or a small stimulus spending package by yearend .
This cascade of financial events is likely to trigger a sharp drop in consumer spending in the 1st Quarter 2021 .
Consumer Confidence Returns When They Are ‘ Not Worrying ’ If world trade was more robust then executives in major corporations would feel more confident in their hiring plans even if domestic markets were stalled .
But , , the U.S. consumer provides 25 % of world consumption .
So , major corporate executives are still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even of their offshore operations .
The stalemate will resolve depending on how each side perceives the moves of the other .
For consumers it is how secure they feel when they look at the hiring moves of executives .
For executives they want to see sustainable spending by consumers .
Without major government intervention for relief , long term investment and virus containment the outlook is highly uncertain .
So , it is likely that the standoff will resolve to the downside until major economic interventions occur for both virus control and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , our government needs to recognize how overwhelmed most people are today .
People are worried about multiple crises coming at them from losing their job to virus infections , violence , wildfires , hurricanes and flooding .
When consumers stop worrying and feel calm spending will return .
Susan , commented from her car after being evacuated from fires in the Santa Cruz Mountains and not going into a Red Cross shelter because of worries about becoming infected by the coronavirus Patrick Hill is the Editor of The Progressive Ensign , theprogressiveensign.com/ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , leveraging 20 years of experience as an executive at firms like HP , Genentech , Verigy , Informatica , and Okta to provide investment and economic insights .
Twitter : @ PatrickHill1677 , email : patrickhill @ theprogressiveensign.com

by Patrick Hill
Executive – Employee Catch-22 Jeopardizes The Recovery
“A catch-22 is a paradoxical situation from which an individual cannot escape because of contradictory rules or limitations. The term was coined by Joseph Heller in his 1961 novel Catch – 22” Wikipedia
The Catch-22 is this: executives will not hire until they see sustainable sales growth and employees will not spend until they feel confident about their job future.
The challenge for executives and employees is sustainable employment. They both look for the other to take the first step to achieve sustainable employment. The recovery will not gain momentum until executives gain confidence in future sales. Employees will not buy as much as the executives prefer until the threat of layoffs abates and hiring resumes.
Executives need to see customers actively buying goods and services for at least a quarter or two to gain baseline confidence in sustainable sales. Then, management may begin hiring. If sales fall or become weak executives freeze hiring, end contractor work and permanently lay off employees.
As such,, employees are worried about losing their jobs. A Gallup survey found more than 25% percent of all employees are concerned about future layoffs. If the present slow decline in economic activity accelerates it will cause executives to freeze hiring and consumers to further curtail spending.
We examine the standoff from both the executive and employee perspective by discussing these points:
Executives Look for Solid Sales Growth Before Hiring
Small Business Owners Cut Hiring
All Employees Express Concern About Layoffs
Executive – Employee Catch 22 Likely To Resolve To Downside
Executives Look For Solid Sales Growth Before Hiring
S & P 100 corporations achieve about 65% of their sales and 70 – 75% of their profits from international sales. World trade fell before the pandemic. The pandemic magnifies the decline in sales and will likely delay a worldwide sales recovery. The following chart shows world trade fell 12.5% in the 2nd Quarter of 2020, though trade activity is recovering. Thus, most managers cannot look to weak international sales to offset weak domestic sales.
Source: CPB World Trade Monitor – 8/25/20
The next chart shows sales for corporations who rely on international sales revenue fell by 15.3%. For all corporations, sales fell by 9.8% in the 2nd Quarter. The weakness in sales for internationally based businesses confirms the weak trade outlook. The outlook for domestic sales is uncertain without a new relief package from Congress. Thus, managers will hesitate to make any firm hiring commitments.
Source: Factset – 8/2020
For all S &P 500 corporations earnings results for the 2nd Quarter were even worse than revenues down by 33.8% . Executives were caught off guard by the pandemic in mid – March. Most executives were expecting the pandemic to be controlled by the summer so they maintained staffing levels. Management furloughed some employees, paid overhead costs for empty offices, and held inventories as sales dropped. Managers try to keep costs in line with revenues. So, when earning fell 3 times revenues they will look to cut costs. There is extreme pressure on management to cuts costs with staff at 70% of all costs, so more layoffs are likely.
Source: Factset – 8/2020
Management Places Hold On Hiring
The following chart shows new orders versus employment in manufacturing companies. The August ISM Manufacturing Survey shows increases in new orders, yet employment stalls at contraction levels. The fact that management holds off on hiring confirms their concern about sustainable sales.
Sources: Pantheon Macroeconomics, The Daily Shot – 9/2/20
This chart from the Track The Recovery Project indicates a significant decline in new job postings by 35%. We think management will continue to cut back. The decline in new job postings is another indicator of executive lack of confidence in future sales growth.
Sources: tracktherecovery.org, Quill Intelligence – 8/24/20
Permanent Layoffs Increase
The following graph shows temporary worker layoffs versus permanent worker layoffs. Temporary worker layoffs surged at the beginning of the pandemic as management thought the virus would soon be controlled. However, as virus infections increased and lockdowns stayed in place longer than expected temporary layoffs decreased while permanent layoffs increased. The increase in permanent layoffs means out-of-work adults will reduce spending until employment prospects turn positive.
Source: Bloomberg – 9/4/20
Consumer Spending Growth Not Seen
Executives are looking for solid consumer spending before resuming hiring. In highly uncertain economic conditions managers will invest in new equipment, automation, or cost cutting programs before hiring. As a last resort, if they absolutely need new staff managers, they hire temporary workers before hiring full time employees. Managers view hiring of any new employee with a combination of confidence and risk. Supervisors hire the new worker with confidence that they will be successful in their new role. But, often it is not clear the new hire will be successful in the job for 6 – 12 months. Plus, hiring a new employee costs 25 – 40% of their salary in overhead costs. If an executive makes a hiring mistake it is not only costly to the worker but could hurt productivity, reduce sales, or delay product development. Besides the individual candidate executives assess the general economic climate.
Today’s deteriorating economic trends are a major concern for hiring managers. Economic headwinds include: surging pandemic infections, falling international and domestic sales, rising trade tensions with China and allies, tightening regulations by a possibly new Congress and President, and the delaying of a fiscal stimulus package.
Small Business Owners Cut Hiring
The small business sector is the jobs engine of the U.S. economy. In 2019, small businesses created 1.5M jobs for 64% of total business new hires. Plus, small businesses provided 50% of all economic output and 60M jobs accounting for 47% of the labor force. Profitability is a major challenge as 40% of small businesses are profitable. The other 60% break even or losing money. Most small business owners have only 30 days of free cash flow, thus limiting their ability to handle a long term financial crisis. The following Small Business Pulse Survey found millions of small businesses struggling 47% of small businesses do not expect to return to normal operations for at least 6 months, and only 25% have done so.
Sources: Census Pulses Survey, Bloomberg – 9/4/20
The Homebase activity chart below shows small business employment at 25% below pre pandemic levels. Business hours are reduced as well. Owners are forced to lay off more workers when business hours are reduced. Activity and mobility surveys confirm that small business sales are 40 – 50% down from pre pandemic levels in core cities and 20 – 30% below in other regions.
Source: Homebase, The Daily Shot – 9/2/20
Exodus From Cities Triggers Small Business Sales Decline
Many services businesses and restaurants in core cities face a continuing loss of customers due to a permanent shift to working from home. Densely populated cities have seen as much as a 30% reduction in activity as professionals leave cities and purchase homes in the suburbs or lower cost rural areas. A recent survey showed 15% of workers have permanently left San Francisco for housing elsewhere. In addition, thousands of professionals have left Manhattan with the city experiencing only a 30% return of employees to offices.
Small businesses are experiencing losses in the suburbs as well. In the suburbs of San Francisco, Google has cut catering by 80% and Facebook by 70%.
Small Business Landlords Face Looming $35 billion In Rent Due
Independent apartment building owners manage half the units rented in the U.S. Independent landlords worry about missed rent payments. Federal CDC and state moratoriums provide rent payment forbearance until January 1st. Yet, eight million independent multiple unit owners still must make mortgage payments each month. Thirty-three percent of renters did not make their August payment. If these independent owners do not receive rent payments soon landlords will default on mortgage loans. Plus, they may be forced to sell their units in a weak multi-unit real estate market. In January it will become evident how significant a problem landlord defaults will become when renters must begin paying back $35 billion due. The looming issue is that if thousands of landlords default it could impact the $11 trillion mortgage industry and property tax income to local cities and schools.
Agile Entrepreneurs Create New Businesses
Enterprising services providers shift yoga classes, and personal fitness sessions to Zoom online. Restaurants use online delivery services to customers wary of coming to their location. One restaurant offers dinner parties via Zoom, where participants receive ingredients in advance and cook with a chef. Other entrepreneurs create businesses focused on work from home consumer needs like remote learning and child care for pods of students.
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Small Businesses Face Major Economic Headwinds
The challenge is that most small businesses are not funded to handle a long term sales decline for years as well as major corporations are funded to handle. In a September a Goldman Sachs survey of 860 small businesses shows that 88% of owners reported they had run out of the their Payroll Protection Plan (PPP) funds. Only 65% reported they thought they would survive through the pandemic. About 30% of owners note they will run out of cash by yearend without the renewal of PPP loans. While most owners report operating full hours, sales are down between 20 – 50% from pre pandemic levels. On the positive side there was a surge of 5 % to 14% who said they were managing the transformation of their business well.
All Employees Are Concerned About Layoffs
All types of employees are concerned about future layoffs. As a recent Gallup survey shows 27% of workers are worried with 29M workers on unemployment and job prospects dimming.
Source: Gallup – 9/2/20
Many employees express job security concerns beyond income because their employer provides health insurance. If workers lose their job, they lose their health insurance. Jobless workers find private insurance too expensive. Holding a job with a sustainable income stream with health benefits is crucial to building consumer confidence. Possible layoffs create anxiety over income and health care such that consumers spend even less. Job security must increase with the pandemic under control before consumer spending can grow.
Two Distinct Employee Groups – One Secure, Other Insecure
In our post, A Tale of Two Economies we identified two groups of employees, professionals and workers. Professionals are college graduates who work from home and have job security. During the pandemic professionals are spending on cars, homes, and home improvement products. The worker group of high school graduates are required to work at offices, stores, factories and farms. Millions of these non-work from home employees were laid off temporarily in March. Managers hoped to rehire workers quickly after the pandemic was controlled. The pandemic is not under control so millions of workers have been permanently laid off.
Worker job confidence is being undermined by headlines of major layoffs at companies in major sectors like hospitality, consumer beverage, entertainment, media, auto and even high tech. Most workers are being squeezed between mounting bills and lost income. Many working class families do not have enough money even for food so they are going to food banks. The majority of 29M adults on unemployment assistance are in the workers group.
Professional and Worker Comparison
The following chart highlights the stark contrast in job, income and health situation for each group:
Indicators Professional Worker Education B.A. Degree High School Diploma Work Location WFH 63% Not WFH 67% Employment Growth – January to June + 2% – 5% to – 20% Unemployment Rate 8.4% 17.3% Rainy Days Savings – 3 months 75% 23% Housing Own Rent No or Slight Confidence Housing Payment 16% 34% Health Insurance 64% 31% Virus Vulnerability 1 Nominal 4 times
Starting with the contrast in ability to work from home versus factory, the two groups have been at opposite financial positions during the crisis. Professionals believe they can handle the crisis. High tech employees at information services companies like Apple, Google, Facebook and Netflix feel secure as sales increase, though these high growth sales may not continue.
For professional knowledge workers across multiple sectors there actually was an increase in employment. Higher income workers had three times the number of households with ‘rainy day’ funds, two times the health insurance coverage, and are much less vulnerable to catch the coronavirus.
Yet, home owners across both employment groups are financially pinched as mortgage delinquencies surged to 8.2% in August from previous month’s 6.1%. Worker group adults face high rates of eviction, are more anxious about making house payments and have limited health insurance options. Plus, 56% of small business are owned by high school graduates. So, many owners will not be able to switch careers by taking a professional job at a major corporation.
Professionals Who WFH Permanently Face Possible Salary Cuts
Some professionals working remotely enjoy the same high salary and benefits packages as when they worked in their company core office location. Yet, other WFH professionals saw their salaries cut. Twitter and VMware announced salary cuts ranging from 8 – 18% for workers who take a permanent WFH option outside the Bay Area. We expect that as companies realize that the internet provides a way to hire other less expensive employees they will reduce salaries of remote workers. The new reality of permanent remote work will cause pay for remote professionals to decline over time. Executives will always be looking for ways to cut costs while maintaining high levels of quality and productivity. Besides, managers will promote work from home as an alternative to office work to reduce office space costs.
Total Consumer Spending Declines by 7.3%
The following chart shows spending in all income categories is falling after a peak in early August. The spending declines range from – 4.0% for low income consumers to -10.6% for those with high incomes. Total spending slid by 7.3% by August 30th compared to the January baseline. The recovery in spending reached a peak in mid-August and continues to decline ever since.
Sources: Opportunity Insight, Quill Intelligence – 9/14/20
The following chart of consumer spending versus income shows how spending stalled after a recovery. A conundrum is emerging about the actual spending of consumers, compared to their income. The April CARES Act temporally boosted incomes. All consumers received $1,200 checks, and people on unemployment received a boost of $600 per week. Yet, when income is compared to spending adults are holding onto their cash as bank account and savings balances are surging.
Sources: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics, The Daily Shot – 8/31/20
Consumers are still concerned with the reduction of unemployment to $300 per week in most states running out by the end of September. Workers reporting they cannot pay for household basics from unemployment assistance rose to 50% in August compared to 27% in July. The stall in consumer spending is confirmed by a recent leveling off of consumer expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index.
Source: The University of Michigan, The Daily Shot – 8/28/20
Advertisers See Possible Drop In Consumer Spending
Since last March, broadcast network advertising sales slide but held steady for digital streaming services and the social media outlets. Advertising managers run ad budgets as a percentage of consumer sales. For existing product lines when sales drop ad spending will be reduced to reflect the sales decline. This fall advertising contracts are being negotiated with unusual provisions to allow advertisers to drop or reschedule up to 50% of their buys. The fact advertisers requested a 50% cut provision with no penalties shows they are concerned about a possible sharp drop in consumer spending. Google and Facebook have 60 % of total U.S. ad spending with 71% of their revenue from advertising. A sustained advertising sales decline is likely to result in layoffs of both administrative and professional staff in these high tech giants.
Executive – Employee Catch 22 Likely To Resolve To The Downside
Economic trends favor major corporations continuing to increase market share at the expense of smaller businesses. Professionals will retain their jobs and continue to spend, though at modest levels. Executives will freeze hiring based on concerns about a virus second wave, world trade sales declines and possible new government regulation from a new administration. Workers in the 80% income segment working onsite will continue to face COVID-19 infection uncertainty, continuing layoffs and mounting rental debts. Headlines announcing thousands of layoffs from major companies will undermine consumer confidence. There have been 1.84M permanent corporate jobs cuts since January, the highest number since a similar period in 2001 according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
Corporations With Cash May Invest
Mitigating the coming nexus events is possible spending by cash rich firms. About 40% of S & P companies still planning on stock buybacks in 2020. Executives seeing a declining economy may opt to invest in retaining their workers to build new products and increase sales. Announced stock buybacks of $400 billion would be better invested in productivity improvements, new product development, increased market, employee retention, sick leave and child care benefits, and paying off debt. However, it remains to be seen if executives will in fact invest in their business.
Consumer Spending May Sharply Decline in 1st Quarter 2021
The federal rent moratorium policy and a similar moratorium in California will end on December 31st. Renters are still required to pay 25% of their total rent due by yearend and then workout a payback program with their landlord for the balance due beginning in January Independent landlords are looking for $35 billion in rent overdue rent payments to begin in January. A nexus is building of evictions, rent and mortgage debt balances due, small business closures, permanent layoffs, the end of the $300 boost in unemployment benefits and no or a small stimulus spending package by yearend. This cascade of financial events is likely to trigger a sharp drop in consumer spending in the 1st Quarter 2021 .
Consumer Confidence Returns When They Are ‘Not Worrying’
If world trade was more robust then executives in major corporations would feel more confident in their hiring plans even if domestic markets were stalled. But,, the U.S. consumer provides 25% of world consumption. So, major corporate executives are still looking for U.S. consumers to drive growth even of their offshore operations.
The stalemate will resolve depending on how each side perceives the moves of the other. For consumers it is how secure they feel when they look at the hiring moves of executives. For executives they want to see sustainable spending by consumers. Without major government intervention for relief, long term investment and virus containment the outlook is highly uncertain. So, it is likely that the standoff will resolve to the downside until major economic interventions occur for both virus control and boosting consumer finances . In the end, our government needs to recognize how overwhelmed most people are today. People are worried about multiple crises coming at them from losing their job to virus infections, violence, wildfires, hurricanes and flooding. When consumers stop worrying and feel calm spending will return.
“I miss not worrying.” September 3, 2020
Susan, commented from her car after being
evacuated from fires in the Santa Cruz Mountains
and not going into a Red Cross shelter because of worries
about becoming infected by the coronavirus
Patrick Hill is the Editor of The Progressive Ensign, theprogressiveensign.com/ writes from the heart of Silicon Valley, leveraging 20 years of experience as an executive at firms like HP, Genentech, Verigy, Informatica, and Okta to provide investment and economic insights. Twitter: @PatrickHill1677, email: patrickhill@theprogressiveensign.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Cold Anger: always good to re-read. for anyone else not familiar, understand it. Its coming by the e

Cold Anger: always good to re-read. for anyone else not familiar, understand it. Its coming by the election one way or the other.

There ’ s a new meme being proclaimed from the executive suites of Park Row .
Encapsulated it says : “ Donald Trump ’ s supporters are angry “ .
Yeah , so ?
At this point , if you are on a team thinking this entire assembly of our union is headed in the right direction… you might want to revisit your proximity to the ballpark .
If you look around at the passing landscape you ’ ll find your autopilot has taken you , not just out of the city , but out of the state the ballpark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of anger far deeper and more consequential than expressed rage or visible behavior .
Cold Anger does not need to go to violence .
For those who carry it , no conversation is needed .
You can not poll or measure it ; and even those who carry it avoid discussion .
And that decision has nothing whatsoever to do with any form of correctness .
Cold Anger is not hatred , it is far more purposeful .
We ’ ve watched the shooting of cops , and the parades which follow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the liars , even from a great distance – seemingly invisible to the mob .
Cold Anger will still hold open the door for the parade goer .
Mannerly .
Cold Anger evidenced is more severe because it is more strategic .
Cold Anger does not gloat ; it absorbs consistent vilification and ridicule as fuel .
This sensibility does not want to exist , it is forced to exist in otherwise unwilling hosts – who also refuse to be destabilized by it .
Deliberate intent and prudence will insure avoiding failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; a strategy devoid of emotion .
Foolishness and betrayal of our nation have served to reveal dangers within our present condition .
Misplaced corrective action , regardless of intent , is neither safe nor wise .
Cold Anger is not driven to act in spite of itself ; it drives a reckoning .
When the well attired lady leaves the checkout line carrying steaks and shrimp using an EBT card , the door is still held open for her ; yet notations necessarily embed .
When the U.S. flag lay gleefully undefended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When a school community can not openly pray , it does not mean the prayerful were absent .
When a liar seems to win , it is not without observation .
Many – more than the minority would like to admit – know the difference between science , clocks and political agenda .
Cold Anger perceives deception the way a long-term battered spouse absorbs the blow in the hours prior to the pre-planned exit ; with purpose .
A shield , or cry of micro-aggression will provide no benefit , nor quarter .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a hurricane .
Pushed far enough , decisions are reached .
[ … ] On the drive to and from the East Coast , I paid attention to the billboards and bumper-stickers .
Folks , the people in “ Fly over ” country are PISSED , from the guy that guides hunters , to the mayors of towns and cities , to state senators congressmen and Governors who are voting to arrest and imprison federal law enforcement officials for enforcing federal gun laws that don ’ t agree with state law … @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the history of humanity , stayed on one side of a swing .
The back lash from over reach has always been proportionate to how far off center it went before coming back … right now we ’ re staring at a whole hell of a lot of the country ( about 80-90 % of the land mass , as well as about 50 % of the population ) that is FED UP .
You really don ’ t want those guys to decide that the only way to fix it is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more )

There’s a new meme being proclaimed from the executive suites of Park Row. Encapsulated it says: “Donald Trump’s supporters are angry“.
Yeah, so? At this point, if you are on a team thinking this entire assembly of our union is headed in the right direction… you might want to revisit your proximity to the ballpark. If you look around at the passing landscape you’ll find your autopilot has taken you, not just out of the city, but out of the state the ballpark is located in…..
There’s a level of anger far deeper and more consequential than expressed rage or visible behavior. Cold Anger does not need to go to violence. For those who carry it, no conversation is needed. You cannot poll or measure it; and even those who carry it avoid discussion. And that decision has nothing whatsoever to do with any form of correctness.
Cold Anger is not hatred, it is far more purposeful.
Cold Anger absorbs betrayal silently, often prudently.
We’ve watched the shooting of cops, and the parades which follow, absorbing. Cold Anger takes notice of the liars, even from a great distance – seemingly invisible to the mob. Cold Anger will still hold open the door for the parade goer. Mannerly.
Cold Anger evidenced is more severe because it is more strategic.
Cold Anger does not gloat; it absorbs consistent vilification and ridicule as fuel. This sensibility does not want to exist, it is forced to exist in otherwise unwilling hosts – who also refuse to be destabilized by it.
Deliberate intent and prudence will insure avoiding failure. The course, is thoughtful vigilance; a strategy devoid of emotion.
Foolishness and betrayal of our nation have served to reveal dangers within our present condition. Misplaced corrective action, regardless of intent, is neither safe nor wise.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Cold Anger is not driven to act in spite of itself; it drives a reckoning.
When the well attired lady leaves the checkout line carrying steaks and shrimp using an EBT card, the door is still held open for her; yet notations necessarily embed.
When the U.S. flag lay gleefully undefended, they do not lay unnoticed.
When a school community cannot openly pray, it does not mean the prayerful were absent.
When a liar seems to win, it is not without observation. Many – more than the minority would like to admit – know the difference between science, clocks and political agenda.
Cold Anger perceives deception the way a long-term battered spouse absorbs the blow in the hours prior to the pre-planned exit; with purpose.
A shield, or cry of micro-aggression will provide no benefit, nor quarter. Delicate sensibilities are dispatched like a feather in a hurricane. Pushed far enough, decisions are reached.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--CDC publishes new survival rates for Covid … MSM Goes Silent

The US govt last week updated the survival rates ( i.e.
, IF infected ) for Covid19 :

The US govt last week updated the survival rates (i.e., IF infected) for Covid19:
0-19 99.997%
20-49 99.98%
50-69 99.5%
70+ 94.6%
Didn't see it reported much.t.co/miFbqyb9pM
— Adam Creighton (@Adam_Creighton) September 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--If Nancy Pelosi tries to impeach President Trump for appointing a Supreme Court Justice-as the Const

If Nancy Pelosi tries to impeach President Trump for appointing a Supreme Court Justice-as the Constitution requires him to do-we will take steps to remove her as Speaker.

If Nancy Pelosi tries to impeach President Trump for appointing a Supreme Court Justice—as the Constitution requires him to do—we @ @ @ @ @ her as Speaker .
pic.twitter.com/NIJMgcBbii

If Nancy Pelosi tries to impeach President Trump for appointing a Supreme Court Justice—as the Constitution requires him to do—we will take steps to remove her as Speaker. pic.twitter.com/NIJMgcBbii
— Kevin McCarthy (@GOPLeader) September 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--DOJ Unveils proposed Section 230 Legislation to Punish Social Media Over Censorship Online Criminal

DOJ Unveils proposed Section 230 Legislation to Punish Social Media Over Censorship Online Criminal Activity

President Donald J Trump is going to address online censorship and Wednesday the Department of Justice , following Trump ’ s directives , drew up legislation to enforce freedom of speech by disallowing platforms that use third-party content as an excuse for protections for online platforms provided by Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act .
“ For too long Section 230 has provided a shield for online platforms to operate with impunity , ” said Attorney General William P. Barr .
From the Department of Justice Press Release : Today , on behalf of the Trump Administration , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congress to reform Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act .
The draft legislative text implements reforms that the Department of Justice deemed necessary in its June Recommendations and follows a yearlong review of the outdated statute .
The legislation also executes President Trump ’ s directive from the Executive Order on Preventing Online Censorship .
“ For too long Section 230 has provided a shield for online platforms to operate with impunity , ” said Attorney General William P. Barr .
“ Ensuring that the internet is a safe , but also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vitally important to America .
We therefore urge Congress to make these necessary reforms to Section 230 and begin to hold online platforms accountable both when they unlawfully censor speech and when they knowingly facilitate criminal activity online.
” “ The Department ’ s proposal is an important step in reforming Section 230 to further its original goal : providing liability protection to encourage good behavior online , ” said Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey A. Rosen .
“ The proposal makes clear that , when interactive computer services willfully distribute illegal material or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 230 should not shield them from the consequences of their actions.
” The Department of Justice is grateful to all the experts , victims ’ groups , academics , businesses , and other stakeholders that have and continue to engage closely with the department during this process .
The draft legislation reflects important and helpful feedback received thus far .
The department is also grateful to our colleagues in Congress for their support on Section 230 reform and looks forward to continued engagement moving forward .
The Department of Justice ’ s draft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , both of which are , at minimum , necessary to recalibrate the outdated immunity of Section 230 .

President Donald J Trump is going to address online censorship and Wednesday the Department of Justice, following Trump’s directives , drew up legislation to enforce freedom of speech by disallowing platforms that use third-party content as an excuse for protections for online platforms provided by Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.
“For too long Section 230 has provided a shield for online platforms to operate with impunity,” said Attorney General William P. Barr.
READ MORE ABOUT 230 PROTECTIONS
From the Department of Justice Press Release:
Today, on behalf of the Trump Administration, the Department of Justice sent draft legislation to Congress to reform Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The draft legislative text implements reforms that the Department of Justice deemed necessary in its June Recommendations and follows a yearlong review of the outdated statute. The legislation also executes President Trump’s directive from the Executive Order on Preventing Online Censorship.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“For too long Section 230 has provided a shield for online platforms to operate with impunity,” said Attorney General William P. Barr. “Ensuring that the internet is a safe, but also vibrant, open and competitive environment is vitally important to America. We therefore urge Congress to make these necessary reforms to Section 230 and begin to hold online platforms accountable both when they unlawfully censor speech and when they knowingly facilitate criminal activity online.”
“The Department’s proposal is an important step in reforming Section 230 to further its original goal: providing liability protection to encourage good behavior online,” said Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey A. Rosen. “The proposal makes clear that, when interactive computer services willfully distribute illegal material or moderate content in bad faith, Section 230 should not shield them from the consequences of their actions.”
The Department of Justice is grateful to all the experts, victims’ groups, academics, businesses, and other stakeholders that have and continue to engage closely with the department during this process. The draft legislation reflects important and helpful feedback received thus far. The department is also grateful to our colleagues in Congress for their support on Section 230 reform and looks forward to continued engagement moving forward.
The Department of Justice’s draft legislation focuses on two areas of reform, both of which are, at minimum, necessary to recalibrate the outdated immunity of Section 230.
djhjmedia.com/kari/doj-unveils-proposed-section-230-legislation-to-punish-social-media-over-censorship-online-criminal-activity/


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--UK to ‘Deliberately Infect’ Volunteers With Coronavirus to Test Anti-COVID Vaccine

Earlier , joint-vaccine trials between AstraZeneca and Oxford University were halted due to an unexplained neurological illness reported among the @ @ @ @ @ which was linked to the drug..
The UK is set to be the first country @ @ @ @ @ a vaccine against coronavirus by infecting healthy volunteers with Sars-Cov-2 , the Financial Times reported @ @ @ @ @ in the study .
In so-called “ COVID-19 human challenge trials ” , which will @ @ @ @ @ government , participants will receive the vaccine and then , later , a “ challenge @ @ @ @ @ normally causes the coronavirus-related disease .

Earlier, joint-vaccine trials between AstraZeneca and Oxford University were halted due to an unexplained neurological illness reported among the participants of the testing, which was linked to the drug..
The UK is set to be the first country in the world to test a vaccine against coronavirus by infecting healthy volunteers with Sars-Cov-2, the Financial Times reported, citing several people involved in the study. In so-called “COVID-19 human challenge trials”, which will be funded by the UK government, participants will receive the vaccine and then, later, a “challenge” dose of Sars-Cov-2 which normally causes the coronavirus-related disease.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
sputniknews.com/uk/202009241080556540-uk-to-deliberately-infect-volunteers-with-coronavirus-to-test-anti-covid-vaccine/
Tess


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Another country will sign a peace deal with Israel in ‘next day or two’: US diplomat

Another country will sign a peace deal with Israel in ‘ next day or two ’ : US diplomat t.co/TuDFaoGqG5

Another country will sign a peace deal with Israel in ‘next day or two’: US diplomat t.co/TuDFaoGqG5
— EndGameWW3 (@EndGameWW3) September 23, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Michiganders have collected enough signatures to remove Governor Whitmer’s Emergency powers

MICHIGAN — A petition started by the group Unlock Michigan and aiming to repeal the Emergency Powers of Governor Act of 1945 has received the required 500,000 signatures , The Emergency Powers of Governor Act of 1945 allows governors to issue state of emergencies during a crisis and has been used frequently amid the coronavirus pandemic by Michigan Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer .
In a news release , Unlock Michigan , a group of Michigan residents who oppose Whitmer ’ s emergency declarations , said it would turn the petition in to the bureau of elections “ soon.
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a half-million signatures from Michigan voters in fewer than 80 days , an historic accomplishment at a pivotal point in Michigan ’ s history , ” Unlock Michigan Co-Chair Ron Armstrong said in a statement .
“ This initiative isn ’ t about any one rule , or any one personality .
This proposed law simply takes away the ability of a single politician to rule like a monarch for as long as they like .
That ’ s a power that no politician of any party should ever have .
”

MICHIGAN — A petition started by the group Unlock Michigan and aiming to repeal the Emergency Powers of Governor Act of 1945 has received the required 500,000 signatures,
The Emergency Powers of Governor Act of 1945 allows governors to issue state of emergencies during a crisis and has been used frequently amid the coronavirus pandemic by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
In a news release, Unlock Michigan, a group of Michigan residents who oppose Whitmer’s emergency declarations, said it would turn the petition in to the bureau of elections “soon.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“We’ve succeeded in collecting more than a half-million signatures from Michigan voters in fewer than 80 days, an historic accomplishment at a pivotal point in Michigan’s history,” Unlock Michigan Co-Chair Ron Armstrong said in a statement. “This initiative isn’t about any one rule, or any one personality. This proposed law simply takes away the ability of a single politician to rule like a monarch for as long as they like. That’s a power that no politician of any party should ever have.”
www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/michigan-group-petitions-to-revoke-whitmer-emergency-powers/ar-BB19lPwt?ocid=uxbndlbing


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Mostly peaceful protester caught on video hitting a Seattle police officer in the head with a bat

Antifa in Seattle attempted to murder a police officer by hitting his head with a metal baseball bat as the @ @ @ @ @ him .
This video was deleted .
pic.twitter.com/DoBl5IiDIa

Antifa in Seattle attempted to murder a police officer by hitting his head with a metal baseball bat as the Black Lives Matter mob surrounded him. This video was deleted. pic.twitter.com/DoBl5IiDIa
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) September 24, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--The Truth About Joe & Hunter Biden. Will It Ever See The Light Of Day On MSM?

MAYBE A SHOCK FOR YOU , TOVARISH , BUT SOME OF US HAVE STAYED AWAKE THE LAST TWO YEARS : @ @ @ @ @ Biden Financially Tied to Chinese Government , Rich Russian Widow , Human Trafficking .
Shocked @ @ @ @ @ Behold my shocked face .
Look how shocked it is !

MAYBE A SHOCK FOR YOU, TOVARISH, BUT SOME OF US HAVE STAYED AWAKE THE LAST TWO YEARS: Shock Senate Report Finds Hunter Biden Financially Tied to Chinese Government, Rich Russian Widow, Human Trafficking.
Shocked, shocked, shocked. Behold my shocked face. Look how shocked it is!
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Many of these reports also did not mention Hunter Biden's business associations with Chinese nationals linked to the CCP and PLA. They did, however, really let us know that "Russian disinformation" made the rounds on their slack channels this morning. pic.twitter.com/XzkPYMm0xA — Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 23, 2020
BREAKING: Sen. Rand Paul says he will refer Biden-Ukraine report to the Justice Department for a criminal investigation — SV News 🚨 (@SVNewsAlerts) September 24, 2020
Who among us hasn't gotten kicked out of the Navy for snorting cocaine, knocked up a stripper, preyed on a brother's widow, and collected $3.5 million in secret wire transfers from the wife of Moscow's former mayor? t.co/qPuasDsHmG — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) September 23, 2020
h/t SH


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--DON’T GET COCKY: WaPo/ABC polls: Trump edging Biden in Florida and Arizona now.

No need to break these polls down , at least not much , just given their sourcing .
Normally , Donald Trump does worse in both the Washington Post/ABC and Fox polling series than in others , although not necessarily by wide margins .
Given that , the latest results from the WaPo/ABC battleground-state polling should have the White House smiling — and Democrats worried : President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are locked in close races in Florida and Arizona , according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls in two Sun Belt battlegrounds the president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his hopes for reelection in November .
In Florida , likely voters split 51 percent for Trump to 47 percent for Biden , while registered voters split 47 percent for Trump to 48 percent for Biden .
In Arizona , Trump ’ s margin is even smaller at 49 percent to Biden ’ s 48 percent among likely voters .
Among Arizona ’ s registered voters , Trump is at 47 percent and Biden at 49 percent .
All these differences are within the polls ’ margins of sampling error .
The findings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president than other polls conducted in the two states recently by other organizations .
The Post ’ s average of polls this month shows Biden with a two-point advantage in Florida and a six-point margin in Arizona .

No need to break these polls down, at least not much, just given their sourcing. Normally, Donald Trump does worse in both the Washington Post/ABC and Fox polling series than in others, although not necessarily by wide margins. Given that, the latest results from the WaPo/ABC battleground-state polling should have the White House smiling — and Democrats worried:
President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are locked in close races in Florida and Arizona, according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls in two Sun Belt battlegrounds the president won in 2016 that are crucial to his hopes for reelection in November.
In Florida, likely voters split 51 percent for Trump to 47 percent for Biden, while registered voters split 47 percent for Trump to 48 percent for Biden. In Arizona, Trump’s margin is even smaller at 49 percent to Biden’s 48 percent among likely voters. Among Arizona’s registered voters, Trump is at 47 percent and Biden at 49 percent. All these differences are within the polls’ margins of sampling error.
The findings in the two surveys are better for the president than other polls conducted in the two states recently by other organizations. The Post’s average of polls this month shows Biden with a two-point advantage in Florida and a six-point margin in Arizona.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Seth Levine: “Will NYC Die?” It’s Up To You.

“ Will NYC Die ?
” It ’ s Up To You .
The magnitude of change that the coronavirus ( COVID ) ushered in is truly astonishing .
It ’ s upheaved industries , professions , and the very fabric of many lives .
Among the apparent victims in New York City ( NYC ) .
Not only are businesses such as hotels , restaurants , bars , and theaters struggling to operate , but the city is rapidly depopulating .
Watching my friends leave and my favorite places close is incredibly sad .
Like many , I find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I love so dearly dead for good ?
Or will it bounce back ?
NYC is my home .
Sure , I ’ ve lived here most of my life .
More importantly , though , it ’ s where my heart lies .
I work here , met my wife here , and am raising a family here .
Most of my friends and family are also nearby .
I love NYC : the energy ; the walkability ; the variety ; the aesthetic ; the activities ; the food ; the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; the people .
There ’ s simply no other place on Earth I ’ d rather live .
Of course , I daydream of elsewhere .
NYC ’ s benefits carry a hefty price tag—a nauseating cost of living .
I make trade-offs to living here .
Thus , I often try to imagine a better place : a dense city , with world-class art , food , entertainment , nightlife ; with competitive jobs , a temperate climate , access to nature , no traffic , and above all , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve yet to best NYC .
The hollowing out of this city shakes me to my core .
My stakes are high .
I have significant amounts of human and financial capital invested here , so I often wonder about its future .
Are NYC ’ s best days behind it ?
Should I cut my losses and move on ?
Or should I sit tight and wait for its ensuing recovery ?
Much has been said about NYC ’ s current state of affairs .
To some , it ’ s curtains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has made it easier than ever for people and businesses to move away .
Movers are so busy with fleeing New Yorkers that they are turning people away !
With the people goes NYC ’ s culture , food , and energy .
Buildings will vacate and high taxes will keep people away .
NYC is dead forever .
To be sure , the argument is good .
To others , the best has yet to come .
NYC has been here before .
It ’ s been down and out only to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 9/11 , the ‘ 70s , etc .
Why ?
Because NYC has a unique energy and attitude that technology can ’ t recreate ; because New Yorkers are tough ; because when you cram millions of people onto a tiny island amazing things happen ; because greatness is rare and you just don ’ t walk away from greatness .
Here too , I ’ m in agreement .
I ’ ll Make a Brand New Start of It Plenty of prominent ( and not so prominent ) people have voiced their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not big on predictions .
Rather , I will attempt to apply what I learned from Philip Tetlock ’ s and Dan Gardner ’ s insightful Superforecasting book .
I ’ ll start with a base assumption and updated it as time progresses .
First , I ’ ll form an “ outside view ” using the historical record of big , culturally important cities .
Then , I ’ ll look at NYC ’ s specific attributes to construct an “ inside view.
” Lastly , I ’ ll compile a list @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This last piece should help me evaluate down which path NYC is progressing .
The argument that NYC will bounce back because it always has is weak , in my view .
To be sure this has been a trustworthy heuristic over our lifetimes .
However , a rudimentary scan of history reveals its shortcomings .
In the U.S. , cities such as Detroit , Philadelphia , and Chicago were once prominent cultural centers .
Even a walk through downtown Cleveland reveals remnants of grandeur in its architecture and public monuments .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The same can be said for Buenos Ares , Caracas , and Beirut whose international prominence significantly waned .
Lastly , there are the renowned cities of antiquity such as Carthage , Constantinople , and Cairo that no longer sit at civilization ’ s epicenter .
Thus , cities do in fact die .
Yet , not all suffer this fate .
The likes of London , Paris , and Rome have been important cultural centers for eons .
Thus , an outside view of NYC provides evidence for either outcome .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Be a Part of It Next , I ’ ll need to form an inside view by teasing out NYC ’ s unique attributes .
Both articles above correctly identify that NYC is not so much a geography as it is a culture .
Whether it ’ s business , music , film , theater , museums , sports , ethnic diversity , comedy , nightlife , architecture , or food , NYC ranks among the top places in the world to find the best .
This is no accident .
Note @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other physical attributes do not make the list .
NYC ’ s virtues are all man-made .
The crucial ingredient are humans .
Said simply , it ’ s the people that make NYC great .
The composition of its population will dictate NYC ’ s direction .
The central role that culture plays is precisely the challenge with prognosticating NYC ’ s future .
The people are currently in flux .
While anecdotes are plentiful , reliable estimates are not .
One analysis of U.S .
Postal Service data estimates that 16,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 2020 .
Another one pegs total NYC move-outs around 40,000 to 50,000 .
Let ’ s face it , these are guesses at best .
However , there are some “ harder ” data to evaluate .
Manhattan vacancy rates are the highest level in over a decade and rents appear to be falling .
These more clearly indicate people vacating NYC .
While the trend seems negative , its magnitude and duration are unknown .
How many people moved out temporarily , just for the lockdown period ?
Did many move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will return if/when they can no longer work from home fulltime ?
What about when schools fully reopen ?
Will many return if the cost of living falls ?
How many would have moved anyway absent COVID ?
These are all open and complicating questions as there are many motivations at play .
Right Through the Very Heart of It In my view , neither renaissance nor ruin is obvious from this cursory examination of inside and outside views .
While my conclusion is vague , it ’ s valuable nonetheless .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people .
So goes the people , so goes NYC .
For now , I remain open to either option for NYC and will update my stance as new facts develop ?
But what exactly should I be looking for ?
What are the essentials components of the NYC culture that I love ?
What specifically about “ people ” is important ?
I Wan na Wake up in a City That Doesn ’ t Sleep What I love about NYC is its productiveness ; the rugged individualism ; the intense drive to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the willingness to make hard trade-offs to do so .
To be sure , these are my preferences .
With the top of mind , I can compile some signposts that can clue me in to the culture ’ s trend .
At the top of my list is the upcoming mayoral election .
While I ’ m not into the red-team vs. blue-team of today ’ s politics , I do find political philosophy important .
It reflects the deep principles by which people live .
Since political offices are literally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if just two options are presented in the voting booth ) , elections can provide some insight into the culture .
They reveal the dominant political philosophy .
Usually , I find little difference among candidates ( hence my apathy ) .
However , given the state of NYC , I ’ d view a win for ( another ) extreme left or right-wing candidate as a clear warning signal to me .
Liberty is the lifeblood of my beloved NYC culture .
A continuation down the current path will bleed out the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the comment section if you ’ re interested in why ) .
The other items on my list are more obvious : trends in crime , vacancies , and riots .
The last item—social unrest—is particularly important in light of recent events .
Productiveness requires respect for property rights .
If productive people leave , the cultural decline is inevitable .
It ’ s up to You ( Us ) To me , whether NYC rebounds or breaks the way of Detroit or Beirut is an open question .
Those asserting strong views @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Both historical precedents and NYC-specific issues suggest that either fate is possible .
This is because NYC is a culture more than geography .
Due to COVID , many dramatic changes are happening at once .
NYC ’ s fate is potentially one .
However , we need not be paralyzed by uncertainty , succumb to emotion , or turn to heuristics ( like NYC always comes back ) .
Rather , we can look for signposts that corroborate either scenario .
For now , my life depends on NYC ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its destruction nor miss its renaissance .
This is a trade I want to get right .
So what ’ s it going to be New York ?
It ’ s up to you ( us ) .

by Seth Levine
“Will NYC Die?” It’s Up To You.
“It’s up to you New York, New York” — Frank Sinatra, Theme From New York, New York
The magnitude of change that the coronavirus (COVID) ushered in is truly astonishing. It’s upheaved industries, professions, and the very fabric of many lives. Among the apparent victims in New York City (NYC). Not only are businesses such as hotels, restaurants, bars, and theaters struggling to operate, but the city is rapidly depopulating. Watching my friends leave and my favorite places close is incredibly sad. Like many, I find myself wondering: Is the NYC that I love so dearly dead for good? Or will it bounce back?
NYC Is My Home
NYC is my home. Sure, I’ve lived here most of my life. More importantly, though, it’s where my heart lies. I work here, met my wife here, and am raising a family here. Most of my friends and family are also nearby. I love NYC: the energy; the walkability; the variety; the aesthetic; the activities; the food; the music; the sports; the entertainment; the people. There’s simply no other place on Earth I’d rather live.
Of course, I daydream of elsewhere. NYC’s benefits carry a hefty price tag—a nauseating cost of living. I make trade-offs to living here. Thus, I often try to imagine a better place: a dense city, with world-class art, food, entertainment, nightlife; with competitive jobs, a temperate climate, access to nature, no traffic, and above all, a lower cost of living. I’ve yet to best NYC.
The hollowing out of this city shakes me to my core. My stakes are high. I have significant amounts of human and financial capital invested here, so I often wonder about its future. Are NYC’s best days behind it? Should I cut my losses and move on? Or should I sit tight and wait for its ensuing recovery?
Start Spreading the News
Much has been said about NYC’s current state of affairs. To some, it’s curtains for the Big Apple. The internet has made it easier than ever for people and businesses to move away. Movers are so busy with fleeing New Yorkers that they are turning people away! With the people goes NYC’s culture, food, and energy. Buildings will vacate and high taxes will keep people away. NYC is dead forever. To be sure, the argument is good.
There won’t be business opportunities for years. Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function more remotely and bandwidth is only getting faster. James Altucher, NYC IS DEAD FOREVER. HERE’S WHY
To others, the best has yet to come. NYC has been here before. It’s been down and out only to come roaring back better than ever: 9/11, the ‘70s, etc. Why? Because NYC has a unique energy and attitude that technology can’t recreate; because New Yorkers are tough; because when you cram millions of people onto a tiny island amazing things happen; because greatness is rare and you just don’t walk away from greatness. Here too, I’m in agreement.
Real, live, inspiring human energy exists when we coagulate together in crazy places like New York City. Jerry Seinfeld, So You Think New York Is ‘Dead’
I’ll Make a Brand New Start of It
Plenty of prominent (and not so prominent) people have voiced their opinions. However, I’m not big on predictions. Rather, I will attempt to apply what I learned from Philip Tetlock’s and Dan Gardner’s insightful Superforecasting book. I’ll start with a base assumption and updated it as time progresses.
It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Yogi Berra
First, I’ll form an “outside view” using the historical record of big, culturally important cities. Then, I’ll look at NYC’s specific attributes to construct an “inside view.” Lastly, I’ll compile a list of signposts to monitor as time unfolds. This last piece should help me evaluate down which path NYC is progressing.
These Little Town Blues
The argument that NYC will bounce back because it always has is weak, in my view. To be sure this has been a trustworthy heuristic over our lifetimes. However, a rudimentary scan of history reveals its shortcomings. In the U.S., cities such as Detroit, Philadelphia, and Chicago were once prominent cultural centers. Even a walk through downtown Cleveland reveals remnants of grandeur in its architecture and public monuments. However, all have lost their luster.
The same can be said for Buenos Ares, Caracas, and Beirut whose international prominence significantly waned. Lastly, there are the renowned cities of antiquity such as Carthage, Constantinople, and Cairo that no longer sit at civilization’s epicenter. Thus, cities do in fact die.
Yet, not all suffer this fate. The likes of London, Paris, and Rome have been important cultural centers for eons. Thus, an outside view of NYC provides evidence for either outcome. Renaissance is not certain.
I Want to Be a Part of It
Next, I’ll need to form an inside view by teasing out NYC’s unique attributes. Both articles above correctly identify that NYC is not so much a geography as it is a culture. Whether it’s business, music, film, theater, museums, sports, ethnic diversity, comedy, nightlife, architecture, or food, NYC ranks among the top places in the world to find the best. This is no accident.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Note that climate, natural beauty, or other physical attributes do not make the list. NYC’s virtues are all man-made. The crucial ingredient are humans. Said simply, it’s the people that make NYC great. The composition of its population will dictate NYC’s direction.
These Vagabond Shoes
The central role that culture plays is precisely the challenge with prognosticating NYC’s future. The people are currently in flux. While anecdotes are plentiful, reliable estimates are not. One analysis of U.S. Postal Service data estimates that 16,000 addresses changed from NYC to Connecticut through June 2020. Another one pegs total NYC move-outs around 40,000 to 50,000. Let’s face it, these are guesses at best.
However, there are some “harder” data to evaluate. Manhattan vacancy rates are the highest level in over a decade and rents appear to be falling. These more clearly indicate people vacating NYC.
Manhattan residential vacancy rates are at the highest level in over a decade
While the trend seems negative, its magnitude and duration are unknown. How many people moved out temporarily, just for the lockdown period? Did many move just for the summer? How many will return if/when they can no longer work from home fulltime? What about when schools fully reopen? Will many return if the cost of living falls? How many would have moved anyway absent COVID? These are all open and complicating questions as there are many motivations at play.
Manhattan residential rents are falling fast
Right Through the Very Heart of It
In my view, neither renaissance nor ruin is obvious from this cursory examination of inside and outside views. While my conclusion is vague, it’s valuable nonetheless. I’ve narrowed the lynchpin down to people. So goes the people, so goes NYC. For now, I remain open to either option for NYC and will update my stance as new facts develop?
But what exactly should I be looking for? What are the essentials components of the NYC culture that I love? What specifically about “people” is important?
I Wanna Wake up in a City That Doesn’t Sleep
What I love about NYC is its productiveness; the rugged individualism; the intense drive to suck the marrow out of life, and the willingness to make hard trade-offs to do so. To be sure, these are my preferences. With the top of mind, I can compile some signposts that can clue me in to the culture’s trend.
At the top of my list is the upcoming mayoral election. While I’m not into the red-team vs. blue-team of today’s politics, I do find political philosophy important. It reflects the deep principles by which people live. Since political offices are literally filled by a popularity contest (even if just two options are presented in the voting booth), elections can provide some insight into the culture. They reveal the dominant political philosophy.
Usually, I find little difference among candidates (hence my apathy). However, given the state of NYC, I’d view a win for (another) extreme left or right-wing candidate as a clear warning signal to me. Liberty is the lifeblood of my beloved NYC culture. A continuation down the current path will bleed out the patient (ask me to elaborate in the comment section if you’re interested in why).
The other items on my list are more obvious: trends in crime, vacancies, and riots. The last item—social unrest—is particularly important in light of recent events. Productiveness requires respect for property rights. If productive people leave, the cultural decline is inevitable.
It’s up to You (Us)
To me, whether NYC rebounds or breaks the way of Detroit or Beirut is an open question. Those asserting strong views appear to be acting on emotion alone. Both historical precedents and NYC-specific issues suggest that either fate is possible. This is because NYC is a culture more than geography.
Due to COVID, many dramatic changes are happening at once. NYC’s fate is potentially one. However, we need not be paralyzed by uncertainty, succumb to emotion, or turn to heuristics (like NYC always comes back). Rather, we can look for signposts that corroborate either scenario.
For now, my life depends on NYC’s fate. I neither want to witness its destruction nor miss its renaissance. This is a trade I want to get right.
So what’s it going to be New York? It’s up to you (us).


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Since Mid-February, Hotels in the U.S. Have Lost over $46 Billion in Room Revenue ($400 Million Per

Since Mid-February, Hotels in the U.S. Have Lost over $46 Billion in Room Revenue ($400 Million Per Day)

The most important economic points for the hotel industry in the USA include : Since mid-February , hotels in the @ @ @ @ @ 46 billion in room revenue ( $ 400 million per day ) .
Operating profits @ @ @ @ @ by 105 % compared to last year , putting these unable to pay their costs @ @ @ @ @ were lost in hospitality and leisure since February .
Projected occupancy for individual hotels and @ @ @ @ @ % .
The highest potential job losses in the hotel industry by state The highest @ @ @ @ @ hotel industry by state The job situation in some states is direr than in the @ @ @ @ @ According to the Oxford Economics projection , below are the rounded potential losses in the @ @ @

The most important economic points for the hotel industry in the USA include:
Since mid-February, hotels in the U.S. have lost over $46 billion in room revenue ($400 million per day).
Operating profits of hotels on average fell by 105% compared to last year, putting these unable to pay their costs.
Around 4.8 million jobs were lost in hospitality and leisure since February.
Projected occupancy for individual hotels and hotel chains is below 20%.
The highest potential job losses in the hotel industry by state
…
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The highest potential job losses in the hotel industry by state
The job situation in some states is direr than in the rest of the country. According to the Oxford Economics projection, below are the rounded potential losses in the labor market:
Arizona – 90,000
California – 456,000
Florida – 336,400
New York – 238,000
Nevada – 178,000
Illinois – 132,000
Pennsylvania – 105,000
Texas – 296,000
Georgia – 115,000
North Carolina – 97,000
www.hotelnewsresource.com/article112363.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-24--Donald Trump : “I wish a lot of luck to (Prince) Harry…because he is going to need it.”

.
@ realDonaldTrump : “ I wish a lot of luck to ( Prince ) Harry…because he is going to @ @ @ @ @ # Justice pic.twitter.com/aP7dc5mGB4

.@realDonaldTrump: “I wish a lot of luck to (Prince) Harry…because he is going to need it.” #Panic #Justice pic.twitter.com/aP7dc5mGB4
— CJTRUTH (@cjtruth) September 23, 2020