investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Russia’s Plan To Bankrupt U.S. Shale Could Send Oil To $60

As soon as U.S. shale leaves the market , prices will rebound and could reach $ 60 a barrel , Rosneft ’ s Igor Sechin said recently .
As fate would have it , in what many would have until recently considered an impossible scenario , a lot of U.S. shale might do just that .
Breakeven prices for U.S. shale basins range between $ 39 and $ 48 a barrel , according to data compiled by Reuters .
Meanwhile , West Texas Intermediate ( WIT ) is trading below $ 25 a barrel and has been for over a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Oklahoma has the highest average breakeven price at $ 48 a barrel .
Surprisingly , the Permian is not the lowest-cost play but the second-lowest , at $ 40 .
The lowest-cost basin , on average , is the Delaware Basin , also in Texas .
On the face of it , these averages give no cause for optimism to an industry hit hard and fast by a perfect storm of radically lower demand and a sharp increase in supply .
However , it ’ s worth noting the figures above are averages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs that last year , according to the Dallas Fed , featured breakeven prices of as little as $ 23 a barrel in the Permian .
In all fairness , these figures were reported last year .
Since then , the lowest may have gone up or , in some locations , down .
Surviving the crisis seems to be a combination of luck with acreage , Wright ’ s Law , and size .
The problem is that luck eventually runs out as does the oil from fracked wells—faster to start producing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Wright ’ s Law does not hold to $ 0 .
Experience in performing an activity can only go as fast as improving productivity and efficiency .
The bigger the size of a company , the more room it has to cut operating costs ( the day-to-day expenses related to running any business ) .
Companies can trim these costs by asking suppliers to lower their prices , which some shale players have already done , asking for a sizeable discount , too–some as much as 25 percent .
This strategy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , too .
At the time , shale producers spoke about efficiency gains and strict cost controls .
Nevertheless , most of the relief came from oilfield service providers drastically slashing the price of their products and services so they could survive during the crisis , ensuring in this way the survival of their clients .
As a result , the oilfield services segment of the industry suffered longer than E & Ps did .
Efficiency gains aside , breakeven prices have fallen because of lower operating expenses .
These now need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies are already curbing business activity ; in this case , by idling rigs and drilling fewer wells .
This is one of the self-regulating mechanisms of the industry .
The fewer new wells drilled , the smaller the production growth until eventually , it evaporates , and production begins to shrink .
We are likely to see this soon enough .
U.S. shale has been praised for changing the world oil game and for managing to bring their costs low enough to survive the 2014-2016 crisis .
Indeed , the industry deserves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : going from the second-highest production cost level in the world to one of the lowest is undoubtedly an accomplishment deserving praise .
However , the shale fan club often forgets that there is a floor under operating costs and that there are only so many discounts an E & P can ask from an oilfield service provider .
Once those discounts are reached and operating costs reach the max , E & Ps will be on their own .
Many of the smaller independents , as well as the large shale players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current supply and demand situation .
The question that many are asking is whether the shale industry could repeat its feat from the last crisis : squeeze costs lower , retrench , survive , and enjoy lower breakevens and higher profits once the crisis is over .
The answer would have been “ maybe ” had the current crisis been only purely related to excessive supply , like the last one .
Unfortunately , this is not the case .
The industry is now also struggling with what is increasingly looking like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil .
On top of it all , the space for further reductions in breakeven prices is more limited than it was five years ago .
It is a law as universal , perhaps , as Wright ’ s Law .
You can not innovate indefinitely , and you can not bring down the breakeven level of a business to zero .
What ’ s more , shale may be facing higher rather than lower breakevens in some parts of the shale patch .
Shale formations are not all made equal .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil is more easily—read cheaply—extractable than in other parts of the same play .
Some of these sweet spots , however , will have been exhausted by now , forcing well operators to tap higher-cost locations , a topic that oil industry expert Art Berman has discussed exhaustively .
Thanks to technological advances , there is certainly more room for efficiency improvements in the extraction of oil from shale formations .
These efficiency improvements would likely bring breakeven levels across the shale patch even lower .
For those that survive the crisis that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

By Irina Slav
As soon as U.S. shale leaves the market, prices will rebound and could reach $60 a barrel, Rosneft’s Igor Sechin said recently. As fate would have it, in what many would have until recently considered an impossible scenario, a lot of U.S. shale might do just that. Breakeven prices for U.S. shale basins range between $39 and $48 a barrel, according to data compiled by Reuters. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WIT) is trading below $25 a barrel and has been for over a week now.
The SCOOP/STACK play in Oklahoma has the highest average breakeven price at $48 a barrel. Surprisingly, the Permian is not the lowest-cost play but the second-lowest, at $40. The lowest-cost basin, on average, is the Delaware Basin, also in Texas.
On the face of it, these averages give no cause for optimism to an industry hit hard and fast by a perfect storm of radically lower demand and a sharp increase in supply. However, it’s worth noting the figures above are averages. They cover a range of breakeven costs that last year, according to the Dallas Fed, featured breakeven prices of as little as $23 a barrel in the Permian. In all fairness, these figures were reported last year. Since then, the lowest may have gone up or, in some locations, down.
Surviving the crisis seems to be a combination of luck with acreage, Wright’s Law, and size. The problem is that luck eventually runs out as does the oil from fracked wells—faster to start producing than conventional ones and faster to deplete—and that Wright’s Law does not hold to $0. Experience in performing an activity can only go as fast as improving productivity and efficiency.
What about size?
The bigger the size of a company, the more room it has to cut operating costs (the day-to-day expenses related to running any business). Companies can trim these costs by asking suppliers to lower their prices, which some shale players have already done, asking for a sizeable discount, too–some as much as 25 percent.
This strategy is what happened during the last oil-price crisis, too. At the time, shale producers spoke about efficiency gains and strict cost controls. Nevertheless, most of the relief came from oilfield service providers drastically slashing the price of their products and services so they could survive during the crisis, ensuring in this way the survival of their clients. As a result, the oilfield services segment of the industry suffered longer than E&Ps did.
Efficiency gains aside, breakeven prices have fallen because of lower operating expenses. These now need to be cut further and already are: companies are already curbing business activity; in this case, by idling rigs and drilling fewer wells. This is one of the self-regulating mechanisms of the industry. The fewer new wells drilled, the smaller the production growth until eventually, it evaporates, and production begins to shrink.
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We are likely to see this soon enough.
U.S. shale has been praised for changing the world oil game and for managing to bring their costs low enough to survive the 2014-2016 crisis. Indeed, the industry deserves most of the credit it has received: going from the second-highest production cost level in the world to one of the lowest is undoubtedly an accomplishment deserving praise.
However, the shale fan club often forgets that there is a floor under operating costs and that there are only so many discounts an E&P can ask from an oilfield service provider. Once those discounts are reached and operating costs reach the max, E&Ps will be on their own. Many of the smaller independents, as well as the large shale players, have little wriggle room in the current supply and demand situation.
The question that many are asking is whether the shale industry could repeat its feat from the last crisis: squeeze costs lower, retrench, survive, and enjoy lower breakevens and higher profits once the crisis is over. The answer would have been “maybe” had the current crisis been only purely related to excessive supply, like the last one. Unfortunately, this is not the case. The industry is now also struggling with what is increasingly looking like the biggest demand slump in the history of oil.
On top of it all, the space for further reductions in breakeven prices is more limited than it was five years ago. It is a law as universal, perhaps, as Wright’s Law. You cannot innovate indefinitely, and you cannot bring down the breakeven level of a business to zero. What’s more, shale may be facing higher rather than lower breakevens in some parts of the shale patch.
Shale formations are not all made equal. In some parts of a play, the oil is more easily—read cheaply—extractable than in other parts of the same play. Some of these sweet spots, however, will have been exhausted by now, forcing well operators to tap higher-cost locations, a topic that oil industry expert Art Berman has discussed exhaustively.
Thanks to technological advances, there is certainly more room for efficiency improvements in the extraction of oil from shale formations. These efficiency improvements would likely bring breakeven levels across the shale patch even lower. For those that survive the crisis that more and more people are calling unprecedented.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Comrade Deblasio Tears Up First Amendment In NYC

Religious congregations are warned that failing to heed his orders could result in their buildings being permanently shuttered : THE @ @ @ @ @ opportunity go to waste .
They ’ re trying to see what we will tolerate @ @ @ @ @ gov ’ t authority .

Religious congregations are warned that failing to heed his orders could result in their buildings being permanently shuttered:
THE LEFTISTS ARE not letting an opportunity go to waste. They’re trying to see what we will tolerate. Pushing the borders of gov’t authority.
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h/t Mark


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--PROGRESS: FDA issues emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for coronavirus care.

Politico says there ’ s “ scant evidence , ” but that ’ s ignoring multiple French studies .
It ’ s journalistic malpractice — which is to say , journalism as usual in the age of Trump — to pretend that there ’ s “ scant evidence.
” Politico ’ s Dan Diamond doesn ’ t even mention the French studies .
Related : Italy and France are now prescribing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine as treatments for coronavirus patients .
Politico ’ s Dan Diamond doesn ’ t mention this either , preferring to treat it as purely a hare-brained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usually wanted us to be more like Europe .
UPDATE : “ Scant evidence.
” Novartis CEO says Malaria drug is biggest hope against coronavirus .
Novartis Chief Executive Vas Narasimhan said his Sandoz generics unit ’ s malaria , lupus and arthritis drug hydroxychloroquine is the company ’ s biggest hope against the coronavirus , Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung reported on Sunday .
Novartis has pledged to donate 130 million doses and is supporting clinical trials needed before the medicine , which U.S. President Donald Trump also has been promoting , can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Other companies including Bayer and Teva have also agreed to donate hydroxychloroquine or similar drugs , while Gilead Sciences is testing its experimental drug remdesivir against coronavirus .
“ Pre-clinical studies in animals as well as the first data from clinical studies show that hydroxychloroquine kills the coronavirus , ” Narasimhan told the newspaper .
I mean , you might disagree , or say it ’ s early days yet , but “ scant evidence ?
” This is why people think the press is garbage .
Because it keeps being garbage .

Politico says there’s “scant evidence,” but that’s ignoring multiple French studies. It’s journalistic malpractice — which is to say, journalism as usual in the age of Trump — to pretend that there’s “scant evidence.” Politico’s Dan Diamond doesn’t even mention the French studies.
Related: Italy and France are now prescribing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine as treatments for coronavirus patients. Politico’s Dan Diamond doesn’t mention this either, preferring to treat it as purely a hare-brained Trump scheme.
I thought the press usually wanted us to be more like Europe.
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UPDATE: “Scant evidence.” Novartis CEO says Malaria drug is biggest hope against coronavirus.
Novartis Chief Executive Vas Narasimhan said his Sandoz generics unit’s malaria, lupus and arthritis drug hydroxychloroquine is the company’s biggest hope against the coronavirus, Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung reported on Sunday. Novartis has pledged to donate 130 million doses and is supporting clinical trials needed before the medicine, which U.S. President Donald Trump also has been promoting, can be approved for use against the coronavirus. Other companies including Bayer and Teva have also agreed to donate hydroxychloroquine or similar drugs, while Gilead Sciences is testing its experimental drug remdesivir against coronavirus. “Pre-clinical studies in animals as well as the first data from clinical studies show that hydroxychloroquine kills the coronavirus,” Narasimhan told the newspaper.
I mean, you might disagree, or say it’s early days yet, but “scant evidence?” This is why people think the press is garbage. Because it keeps being garbage.
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--THREE very important nutrients RIGHT NOW

Florida SUN vitamin D is on the top of the list .

Florida SUN vitamin D is on the top of the list.
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h/t Buzzcheeze


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Lockdown in Australia, $1000 and 6 months jail fines for people breaking the 2 person in public rule

Lockdown in Australia, $1000 and 6 months jail fines for people breaking the 2 person in public rule.

While hairdressers and barber shopsunder current restrictions will remain open with up to 30 minute appointments , and the one @ @ @ @ @ rules applied , in the UK , hairdressers have been closed completely .
And while @ @ @ @ @ buy a T-shirt at a clothes store , or pop into Kmart for a scented @ @ @ @ @ , shops selling clothing , books and electricals have closed .
While it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ who ignore the rules with face nationwide , NSW Police Minister David Elliott today announced @ @ @ @ @ to issue an on-the-spot fine of $ 5000 to companies .
Individuals who flout rules @ @ @ @ @ 1000 , and could be jailed for six months .

via news.com.au
While hairdressers and barber shopsunder current restrictions will remain open with up to 30 minute appointments, and the one person per 4 square metre rules applied, in the UK, hairdressers have been closed completely.
And while Australians are still able to buy a T-shirt at a clothes store, or pop into Kmart for a scented candle, in the UK, shops selling clothing, books and electricals have closed.
…
While it’s not clear exactly what retailers who ignore the rules with face nationwide, NSW Police Minister David Elliott today announced that authorities have the power to issue an on-the-spot fine of $5000 to companies.
Individuals who flout rules will face fines of $1000, and could be jailed for six months.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Jan 31 – Pelosi Cries Discrimination Over POTUS Travel Ban. Chuck Schumer Made A Similar Statement.

Nancy Pelosi on Twitter : “ The Trump Admin ’ s expansion of its un-American travel ban is a threat @ @ @ @ @ values and the rule of law .
Barring more than 350 million people from predominantly @ @ @ @ @ the US , this rule is discrimination disguised as policy.
” James Woods had a @ @ @ @ @ Twitter police , except it was Chuck Schumer making a similar statement .
Video : @ @ @ @ @ When She Pushed Tourists To Visit Chinatown Weeks After Trump Banned Flights From China

The Trump Admin’s expansion of its un-American travel ban is a threat to our security, our values and the rule of law. Barring more than 350 million people from predominantly African countries from traveling to the US, this rule is discrimination disguised as policy. — Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) February 1, 2020
tweetsave.com/speakerpelosi/status/1223414098614018057 :
Nancy Pelosi on Twitter: “The Trump Admin’s expansion of its un-American travel ban is a threat to our security, our values and the rule of law. Barring more than 350 million people from predominantly African countries from traveling to the US, this rule is discrimination disguised as policy.”
James Woods had a similar post reported to the Twitter police, except it was Chuck Schumer making a similar statement.
The post:
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The report:
Numbskull of the day. A liberal troll complains about a single word tweet. (the “media” being referenced was a screen grab of some lame tweet by Chuckles Schumer) pic.twitter.com/Lm5KMZSqLk — James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) March 28, 2020
Video: Nancy Pelosi Helped Coronavirus Spread When She Pushed Tourists To Visit Chinatown Weeks After Trump Banned Flights From China
h/t GrizzlyDark


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Nothing has really changed. Market lost upside momentum on the back test so just waiting on it to ro

Look at the trade volume for today .
It hasn ’ t been this low in a minute .
I @ @ @ @ @ for today quite yet because a big downward shift or sell off could make the @ @ @ @ @ it seems like everyone is in wait and see mode and don ’ t want @ @ @ @ @

Market update – Posted this chart last Thursday. Nothing has really changed. Market lost upside momentum on the back test so just waiting on it to roll over for the move into the X region. pic.twitter.com/esWDuHTHnA — Puff Dragon (@PuffDragon11) March 30, 2020
And again.. like last Friday.. the market is floating without volumes pic.twitter.com/msqMpgdhTO — A.Urban (@AlessioUrban) March 30, 2020
Look at the trade volume for today. It hasn’t been this low in a minute. I would not count the gains for today quite yet because a big downward shift or sell off could make the market plummet. To me it seems like everyone is in wait and see mode and don’t want to make decisions too hastily
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If markets stay as they are today – it'll be one of those rare days when the US dollar rallied by more than 0.5% on the same day US stocks & US bonds also rallied. Only happened on 12 other occasions since 2016… …but more ominously it was a common feature of 2008$SPX $USD pic.twitter.com/YBSdqvad8w — Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) March 30, 2020
$198bn of buybacks (equivalent to 27% of ’19 spend) have already been suspended — THE LONG VIEW ⚫ (@HayekAndKeynes) March 30, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--The US government has absorbed the Federal Reserve. The Fed independence debate is MOOT.

This is actually the biggest scandal and betrayal of the public trust since the founding of the republic .
An anti-democratic institution set up to control our currency ( and economy ) that could only be justified through independence .
End the charade and bring it under Treasury .
The Federal Reserve has unleashed what ’ s frequently been called a bazooka in its efforts to calm markets .
Its next step could be to go nuclear .
Should conditions on Wall Street deteriorate significantly , the central bank could go where it ’ s never gone before : to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time ever , according to market analysts and economists .
The Fed already has unloaded an unprecedented level of ammunition against the tumult brought on by the coronavirus , so doing more would take it even further into uncharted waters .
However , interviews with a variety of market pros over the past week showed that the idea of the Fed venturing into the stock market seems anything but far-fetched .
The Fed would need congressional permission to extend its operations , but it already has received wide latitude from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve Act .

This is actually the biggest scandal and betrayal of the public trust since the founding of the republic. An anti-democratic institution set up to control our currency (and economy) that could only be justified through independence. End the charade and bring it under Treasury.
The Federal Reserve has unleashed what’s frequently been called a bazooka in its efforts to calm markets. Its next step could be to go nuclear.
Should conditions on Wall Street deteriorate significantly, the central bank could go where it’s never gone before: to passively intervene in the stock market for the first time ever, according to market analysts and economists.
The Fed already has unloaded an unprecedented level of ammunition against the tumult brought on by the coronavirus, so doing more would take it even further into uncharted waters.
However, interviews with a variety of market pros over the past week showed that the idea of the Fed venturing into the stock market seems anything but far-fetched. The Fed would need congressional permission to extend its operations, but it already has received wide latitude from the Treasury Department through emergency provisions in the Federal Reserve Act.


TEXAS IS F*CKED

If you are not familiar with the situation concerning Canadian crude oil the price below may come as quite a @ @ @

If you are not familiar with the situation concerning Canadian crude oil the price below may come as quite a shock…. t.co/I5oayidp2f
— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) March 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Department of Labor sources telling me we could be looking at 50-70 million unemployed Americans by

Department of Labor sources telling me we could be looking at 50-70 million unemployed Americans by end of April. Rent strike idea gaining steam…

FED : Third of Americans will be unemployed… Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come , according to a Federal Reserve estimate .
Economists at the Fed ’ s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million , which would translate to a 32.1 % unemployment rate , according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get .
The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard ’ s much-publicized estimate of 30 % .
They reflect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread .
Americans Already Too Diseased to Go Back to Work Right Now… ST. LOUIS ( AP ) — With millions of people suddenly out of work and rent due at the first of the month , some tenants are vowing to go on a rent strike until the coronavirus pandemic subsides .
New York , Boston , Los Angeles , San Francisco and St. Louis are among many cities that have temporarily banned evictions , but advocates for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be waived , not delayed , for those in need during the crisis .
The rent strike idea has taken root in parts of North America and as far away as London .

Fed seems to suggest this too t.co/ggpXug3UKv — Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) March 30, 2020
FED: Third of Americans will be unemployed…
KEY POINTS
The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.
There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said last week that the initial estimates are grim but the plunge should be short-lived.
Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.
Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.
The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread.
Americans Already Too Diseased to Go Back to Work Right Now…
GANNETT making deep cuts, furloughing staff…
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CAN THE NEWS INDUSTRY SURVIVE?
MACY’S to lay off 130,000 employees…
Rent strike idea gaining steam…
ST. LOUIS (AP) — With millions of people suddenly out of work and rent due at the first of the month, some tenants are vowing to go on a rent strike until the coronavirus pandemic subsides.
New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and St. Louis are among many cities that have temporarily banned evictions, but advocates for the strike are demanding that rent payments be waived, not delayed, for those in need during the crisis. The rent strike idea has taken root in parts of North America and as far away as London.
I don't understand how anyone thinks a $1200 check three weeks from now is going to come even close to fixing this. — Brad Polumbo (@brad_polumbo) March 29, 2020
Roses are red
April is grey
By the time you leave your house
It's gonna be May. — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 30, 2020
At a press conference in China today, an MIIT minister warned the economy could get worse before it gets better – a subtle break from recent optimistic rhetoric about economic recovery. Laying the ground for bad PMI numbers tomorrow? t.co/KcN7s1TPin — Finbarr Bermingham (@fbermingham) March 30, 2020
It could take three years for the US economy to recover from #COVID-19 t.co/zTBG82NK19 #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/JVnLqCZGMa — World Economic Forum (@wef) March 30, 2020
Australia’s economy is poised for its deepest recession in 90 years, according to Bloomberg Economics t.co/UjLWGFW1ga — Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Nobody’s talking abt Canada-wide debt bubble @ $11.3 Trillion CAD (Fed, Prov, Municipal, Corporate,

Nobody’s talking abt Canada-wide debt bubble @ $11.3 Trillion CAD (Fed, Prov, Municipal, Corporate, Consumer debt) or 490% of GDP. Historic norm: 150% of GDP.

Nobody 's talking abt Canada-wide debt bubble @ $ 11.3 Trillion CAD ( Fed , Prov , Municipal , Corporate @ @ @ @ @ 490 % of GDP .
Historic norm : 150 % of GDP .
Bank of @ @ @ @ @ supervision of Cabinet .

Nobody's talking abt Canada-wide debt bubble @ $11.3 Trillion CAD (Fed, Prov, Municipal, Corporate, Consumer debt) or 490% of GDP. Historic norm: 150% of GDP.
Bank of Canada blew the bubble under supervision of Cabinet.
Next: bank collapse.#gold #fintwit #crypto #BTC #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/zYDJHg5J6C
— David Jensen (@RealDavidJensen) March 28, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Oil could be in the process of bottoming.

Energy high-yield credit spreads just reached record levels while WTI prices are at 18-year lows .
Oil could be in @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/F2lxVKxXmf

Two extremes.
Energy high-yield credit spreads just reached record levels while WTI prices are at 18-year lows.
Previous divergences marked major turns in oil.
Oil could be in the process of bottoming. pic.twitter.com/F2lxVKxXmf
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 31, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--EVERYONE on Bloomberg TV thinks this is the buy of a lifetime RIGHT NOW!  It all over!

EVERYONE on Bloomberg TV thinks this is the buy of a lifetime RIGHT NOW !
It all over !
!
@ @ @ @ @ bullish they even believe the Chinese do n't lie .
@ FerroTV t.co/u5mdHHCBoE

EVERYONE on Bloomberg TV thinks this is the buy of a lifetime RIGHT NOW! It all over!!!!
They are so bullish they even believe the Chinese don't lie.@FerroTV t.co/u5mdHHCBoE
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--$22 Trillion U.S. Economy Could Fall To Just Above $12 Trillion. 30% Of The Labor Force Will Be Gone

$22 Trillion U.S. Economy Could Fall To Just Above $12 Trillion. 30% Of The Labor Force Will Be Gone If America Follows The Hubei Scenario.

Restaurants are in complete turmoil because they are places were people gather together .
Gathering together is against CDC guidelines ( until April 30th ) so most have had to close .
On OpenTable , bookings have been down 100 % yearly in America for 9 straight days ( 21st to 29th ) and they are down 100 % globally .
The industry has already lost 3 million jobs and $ 25 billion in sales since March 1st .
That ’ s 3 weeks of data .
This industry employs 10 % of the U.S. workforce which means there will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims .
About 50 % of restaurants anticipate doing more layoffs and hourly reductions in the next 30 days .
3 % of operators have already permanently closed their restaurants .
This will increase in the next few weeks if the shutdowns keep going .
11 % anticipate permanently closing their restaurants within the next 30 days .
That means over 1.7 million jobs will be gone for good .
Only 54 % of operators changed to off-premise only sales .
Many restaurants can ’ t do this .
Let ’ s go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small business survey which took place from March 18th to the 20th .
We mentioned this report in a previous article .
In this survey , 3 % of respondents had 1 to 5 employees .
29 % had 26 to 50 employees .
As you can see from the chart below , only 3 % of firms had no impact from COVID-19 .
44 % were shutdown and 56 % saw a decline in sales or traffic .
In other words , the 2/3rds that weren ’ t forced to close saw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news is only 1 % plan to permanently shut down .
The bad news is everything might not go according to plans .
The other good thing is government guaranteed loans are coming .
The bill Congress just passed includes $ 350 billion in money for small firms .
The paycheck protection loan is like a loan that transfers into a grant .
Firms with fewer than 500 workers give their expenses for the past 8 weeks .
Of the money small firms borrowed , there will be forgiveness of payrolls , utilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt .
There are more people working from home , but hourly workers can ’ t always do that .
In fact , in this survey , 94 % said they can ’ t do their job from home .
In a previous article , we mentioned that the unemployment rate could double in April .
Now we say it could get to double digits after only increasing marginally from the current 3.5 % ( as of February ) in the March report .
3.283 million people filed for unemployment claims in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report could be higher .
There were only 5.787 million unemployed people in total in February .
There will be way more than that number of claims in 2 weeks .
That ’ s a more than doubling of the unemployment rate in 2 weeks .
The April unemployment report isn ’ t until the week of the 12th .
There is time for a further increase .
As you can see from the chart below , the number of 311 unemployment insurance calls in NYC more than doubled in the past week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers come out on April 2nd .
NYC is the hardest hit area in America .
The good news is there is unemployment insurance .
Unemployment insurance was signed into law in August 1935 which means during the unemployment rate ’ s peak in the Great Depression there was no safety net .
The final reading of the consumer sentiment report showed sentiment fell from 101 in February to 89.1 in March .
That final reading was down from the preliminary reading of 95.9 .
This was the 4th largest monthly decline ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news is actually worse than that .
As you can see from the chart below , the 7 day average crashed throughout the month .
If it stays where it is now in April , the sentiment index will be down another 18.2 points for a 30.1 decline in 2 months which would be the worst decline ever .
It will be in the low 60s if it stabilizes .
Obviously , it can get even worse if the shutdowns keep going .
If the end is in sight , consumers will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the current conditions index fell 9.7 % monthly and the expectations index fell 13.5 % .
The Hubei Scenario Is Very Bad We don ’ t want to inspire fear , but if the U.S. economy faces the same fate as Hubei , this will be a disaster worse than the Great Depression .
Employment could fall 30 % .
As you can see from the chart below , the nearly $ 22 trillion U.S. economy could fall to just above $ 12 trillion .
The bottom up expenditure , bottom up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far better .
Of course , there also can be a cure found within the next few couple months which would eliminate the worst possible scenarios .
The selling you saw in stocks was from active managers .
Passive investors mostly stayed the course .
More Vanguard clients moved to equities ( 70 % ) and older richer clients moved to bonds .
8.3 % of households made trades from February 19th to March 20th which is about double the normal percentage .
That ’ s still quite low .
Over 90 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dips and made few trades rather than trying to time the market which is a bad idea if you don ’ t follow markets closely and don ’ t have time to do research .
As you can see from the chart below , 65 % of the households that traded made 1 trade ( probably buying the dip ) .
Passive traders aren ’ t panicking .
On the other hand , if they lose their jobs , they won ’ t be able to contribute to their investment accounts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take up to $ 100,000 from their 401ks penalty free .
That could lead to some selling .
Restaurants and small businesses are in bad shape .
The no interest loans that can turn into grants can ’ t come soon enough .
The unemployment rate is set to rise above 10 % in the next couple of reports ( not March ) .
30 % of the labor force will be gone if America follows Hubei trajectory .
To be clear , that ’ s an unlikely worst case scenario .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the crash .
The few that made trades bought .
This is consistent with past bear markets , so don ’ t expect this to change .

by UPFINA
Restaurants are in complete turmoil because they are places were people gather together. Gathering together is against CDC guidelines (until April 30th) so most have had to close. On OpenTable, bookings have been down 100% yearly in America for 9 straight days (21st to 29th) and they are down 100% globally. The industry has already lost 3 million jobs and $25 billion in sales since March 1st. That’s 3 weeks of data. This industry employs 10% of the U.S. workforce which means there will be more devastating spikes in initial jobless claims.
About 50% of restaurants anticipate doing more layoffs and hourly reductions in the next 30 days. 3% of operators have already permanently closed their restaurants. This will increase in the next few weeks if the shutdowns keep going. 11% anticipate permanently closing their restaurants within the next 30 days. That means over 1.7 million jobs will be gone for good. Only 54% of operators changed to off-premise only sales. Many restaurants can’t do this.
Details On Impacts On Small Businesses
Let’s go through some more details on the Homebase small business survey which took place from March 18th to the 20th. We mentioned this report in a previous article. In this survey, 3% of respondents had 1 to 5 employees. 29% had 26 to 50 employees. As you can see from the chart below, only 3% of firms had no impact from COVID-19. 44% were shutdown and 56% saw a decline in sales or traffic. In other words, the 2/3rds that weren’t forced to close saw a decline in sales.
The good news is only 1% plan to permanently shut down. The bad news is everything might not go according to plans. The other good thing is government guaranteed loans are coming. The bill Congress just passed includes $350 billion in money for small firms. The paycheck protection loan is like a loan that transfers into a grant. Firms with fewer than 500 workers give their expenses for the past 8 weeks. Of the money small firms borrowed, there will be forgiveness of payrolls, utilities, rent, and interest on mortgage debt. There are more people working from home, but hourly workers can’t always do that. In fact, in this survey, 94% said they can’t do their job from home.
Jobless Claims Set To Surge
In a previous article, we mentioned that the unemployment rate could double in April. Now we say it could get to double digits after only increasing marginally from the current 3.5% (as of February) in the March report. 3.283 million people filed for unemployment claims in the last report. This Thursday’s report could be higher. There were only 5.787 million unemployed people in total in February. There will be way more than that number of claims in 2 weeks. That’s a more than doubling of the unemployment rate in 2 weeks. The April unemployment report isn’t until the week of the 12th. There is time for a further increase.
As you can see from the chart below, the number of 311 unemployment insurance calls in NYC more than doubled in the past week compared to the prior week. These numbers come out on April 2nd.
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Interesting data re unemployment claims. NYC UC call volume… pic.twitter.com/VlcHUP12G0 — Truffle Hound Value Cap (@THValueCap) March 27, 2020
NYC is the hardest hit area in America. The good news is there is unemployment insurance. Unemployment insurance was signed into law in August 1935 which means during the unemployment rate’s peak in the Great Depression there was no safety net.
Consumer Sentiment Is Recessionary
The final reading of the consumer sentiment report showed sentiment fell from 101 in February to 89.1 in March. That final reading was down from the preliminary reading of 95.9. This was the 4th largest monthly decline ever (almost 50 years). The news is actually worse than that. As you can see from the chart below, the 7 day average crashed throughout the month. If it stays where it is now in April, the sentiment index will be down another 18.2 points for a 30.1 decline in 2 months which would be the worst decline ever. It will be in the low 60s if it stabilizes.
"Consumer sentiment dropped 11.9 Index-points in March, the fourth largest one-month decline in nearly a half century."t.co/qteUm2excK pic.twitter.com/hx1WE9ZR2l — Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 27, 2020
Obviously, it can get even worse if the shutdowns keep going. If the end is in sight, consumers will be more confident. In this March report, the current conditions index fell 9.7% monthly and the expectations index fell 13.5%.
The Hubei Scenario Is Very Bad
We don’t want to inspire fear, but if the U.S. economy faces the same fate as Hubei, this will be a disaster worse than the Great Depression. Employment could fall 30%. As you can see from the chart below, the nearly $22 trillion U.S. economy could fall to just above $12 trillion. The bottom up expenditure, bottom up production, and China scenarios are all far better. Of course, there also can be a cure found within the next few couple months which would eliminate the worst possible scenarios.
Mom & Pop Didn’t Sell
The selling you saw in stocks was from active managers. Passive investors mostly stayed the course. More Vanguard clients moved to equities (70%) and older richer clients moved to bonds. 8.3% of households made trades from February 19th to March 20th which is about double the normal percentage. That’s still quite low. Over 90% stayed the course. Passive investors bought the dips and made few trades rather than trying to time the market which is a bad idea if you don’t follow markets closely and don’t have time to do research.
As you can see from the chart below, 65% of the households that traded made 1 trade (probably buying the dip). Passive traders aren’t panicking. On the other hand, if they lose their jobs, they won’t be able to contribute to their investment accounts. Plus, Congress is now allowing people to take up to $100,000 from their 401ks penalty free. That could lead to some selling.
Conclusion
Restaurants and small businesses are in bad shape. The no interest loans that can turn into grants can’t come soon enough. The unemployment rate is set to rise above 10% in the next couple of reports (not March). 30% of the labor force will be gone if America follows Hubei trajectory. To be clear, that’s an unlikely worst case scenario. Passive investors didn’t sell during the crash. The few that made trades bought. This is consistent with past bear markets, so don’t expect this to change.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The $1.5 Trillion Global Tourism Industry Faces $450 Billion Collapse in Revenues, Based on Optimist

The $1.5 Trillion Global Tourism Industry Faces $450 Billion Collapse in Revenues, Based on Optimistic Assumptions

“ We are temporarily a company with no product and no revenue.
” TUI , the global travel and vacation giant that owns six European airlines , 1,600 travel agencies , over 300 hotels and 14 cruise ships , desperately needs help .
And it appears to have got it .
On Friday , the company announced that the German government had approved a €1.8 billion loan to help keep the group afloat as COVID-19 brings the global travel sector to a literal standstill .
The bridge loan , which still needs to be approved by TUI ’ s creditors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever issued through German state-owned lender KfW .
“ We are currently facing unprecedented international travel restrictions .
As a result , we are temporarily a company with no product and no revenue .
This situation must be bridged , ” TUI CEO Fritz Joussen said in a statement .
The same could be said for millions of companies around the world .
But unlike TUI , many of them don ’ t have the ear of their national government .
Even as giant travel companies like TUI line up with airlines and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge question marks loom over the global travel industry ’ s future .
The World Tourism Organization ( UNWTO ) , in its updated assessment of the potential impact of COVID-19 — based on the optimistic assumption that the tourism industry will experience a swift recovery over the next 3-4 months — projects that for the whole year 2020 , tourist arrivals will have fallen 20-30 % from 2019 , and international tourism revenues will have plunged by $ 300 billion to 450 billion , almost one third of the $ 1.5 trillion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past market trends , this would mean that between five and seven years ’ worth of accumulated industry growth will have been wiped out in one fell swoop .
By contrast , the global financial crisis of 2008-09 resulted in a 5.4 % fall in international tourism revenues , while the September 11 attacks in 2001 and the SARS outbreak of 2002-3 led to declines of just 2 % and 0.4 % .
These were just momentary blips for an industry that has experienced two decades of almost uninterrupted growth , resulting in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , from $ 496 billion in 2000 to $ 1.5 trillion in 2019 .
Even during the worst year , 2009 , the 5.4 % fall in tourism receipts was cancelled out by a 5.7 % resurgence in 2010 .
What is happening now — the total collapse of global travel and tourism — has not happened before .
As the UNTWO itself concedes , its own estimates “ should be interpreted with caution in view of the magnitude , volatility and unprecedented nature of this crisis .
SARS and the 2009 global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but this crisis is like no other.
” Even the scenario of a 20-30 % fall in receipts — four to six times more than in 2009 — assumes that the virus will be contained within the next 2-3 months ; and once it is , that everything will return to exactly how it was before .
It assumes that the virus will be contained globally to such an extent that it allows for unlimited international mass travel and tourism for leisure and business to resume within the next 2-3 months .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are actually willing to travel within a few months .
But this is hard to imagine .
And once things do end up at some sort of new “ normal , ” the global economy may be in the throes of a recession deeper and more enduring than the one suffered in 2009 .
In the meantime , everything stands still .
And the economic pain grows .
Airlines have already taken a battering , having seen their passenger numbers virtually vanish , most of their planes grounded , and their share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 70 % over the past six weeks .
The pain has barely just begun .
By the end of the year , the International Air Transport Association ( IATA ) expects “ revenue passenger kilometers ” ( RPKS ) — an airline industry metric that shows the number of kilometers traveled by paying passengers — to have slumped by approximately 27 % in North America , 32 % in Africa , 37 % in Asia Pacific , 39 % in the Middle East , 41 % in Latin America , and 46 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passenger revenues , the impact is expected to range from just 4 % in Africa to 50 % in North America , 76 % in Europe , and an eye-watering 88 % in the Asia Pacific region .
On the ground , things look just as bad .
The ten countries with the most reported cases of COVID-19 as of three days ago ( China , the United States , Italy , Spain , Germany , Iran , the Republic of Korea , France , Switzerland and the United Kingdom ) account for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 53 % of world tourism expenditure .
Between them , China and the U.S. alone contribute 29 % of total expenditure .
Some of these countries ’ economies are massively dependent on the income and jobs provided by the tourism industry .
In the case of the U.S. , inbound tourism provides 10 % of total exports .
In France and Italy it ’ s 8 % while in Spain it ’ s a stunning 16 % .
In some places such as the Canary Islands and the Balearics , tourism represents over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For years WOLF STREET has been warning about Spain ’ s excessive dependence on tourism and the huge risk that dependence could pose in the event of a sudden fall in demand .
We never thought the fall could be this dramatic .
In February , even before the restrictions on movement were put in place in Europe , Spain had already registered a 15 % year-over-year fall in tourist visa applications .
Easter , one of the busiest weeks for tourist arrivals in Spain , has already been ruined .
If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( it ’ s already lasted six weeks ) , it could end up costing the industry €45 billion in lost income , according to the industry group Exceltur .
Millions of jobs are also on the line .
The same is happening all over the world , albeit to a slightly lesser degree in many places .
Millions of jobs that have been created over the past ten years will be destroyed .
UNWTO concludes its assessment by calling for protection of the most vulnerable segments such as SMEs , self-employed and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , casual jobs the tourism industry specializes in creating .
Unfortunately , most of these groups don ’ t have armies of lawyers and lobbyists to represent them in the corridors of power .
While corporations like TUI are well-practiced in the art of extracting money and other favors from government and central banks , small family-run hotels , travel agencies , restaurants and bars , drivers , guides , and the like — which make up the vast bulk of the tourism industry — have barely any practice at all .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @

“We are temporarily a company with no product and no revenue.”
TUI, the global travel and vacation giant that owns six European airlines, 1,600 travel agencies, over 300 hotels and 14 cruise ships, desperately needs help. And it appears to have got it. On Friday, the company announced that the German government had approved a €1.8 billion loan to help keep the group afloat as COVID-19 brings the global travel sector to a literal standstill. The bridge loan, which still needs to be approved by TUI’s creditors, would be one of the biggest ever issued through German state-owned lender KfW.
“We are currently facing unprecedented international travel restrictions. As a result, we are temporarily a company with no product and no revenue. This situation must be bridged,” TUI CEO Fritz Joussen said in a statement. The same could be said for millions of companies around the world. But unlike TUI, many of them don’t have the ear of their national government.
Even as giant travel companies like TUI line up with airlines and cruise owners for multi-billion dollar bailouts, huge question marks loom over the global travel industry’s future.
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in its updated assessment of the potential impact of COVID-19 — based on the optimistic assumption that the tourism industry will experience a swift recovery over the next 3-4 months — projects that for the whole year 2020, tourist arrivals will have fallen 20-30% from 2019, and international tourism revenues will have plunged by $300 billion to 450 billion, almost one third of the $1.5 trillion generated in 2019.
Taking into account past market trends, this would mean that between five and seven years’ worth of accumulated industry growth will have been wiped out in one fell swoop.
By contrast, the global financial crisis of 2008-09 resulted in a 5.4% fall in international tourism revenues, while the September 11 attacks in 2001 and the SARS outbreak of 2002-3 led to declines of just 2% and 0.4%. These were just momentary blips for an industry that has experienced two decades of almost uninterrupted growth, resulting in a three-fold surge in international tourism receipts, from $496 billion in 2000 to $1.5 trillion in 2019. Even during the worst year, 2009, the 5.4% fall in tourism receipts was cancelled out by a 5.7% resurgence in 2010.
What is happening now — the total collapse of global travel and tourism — has not happened before. As the UNTWO itself concedes, its own estimates “should be interpreted with caution in view of the magnitude, volatility and unprecedented nature of this crisis. SARS and the 2009 global economic crisis are the existing references, but this crisis is like no other.”
Even the scenario of a 20-30% fall in receipts — four to six times more than in 2009 — assumes that the virus will be contained within the next 2-3 months; and once it is, that everything will return to exactly how it was before. It assumes that the virus will be contained globally to such an extent that it allows for unlimited international mass travel and tourism for leisure and business to resume within the next 2-3 months. And it assumes that this large number of people are actually willing to travel within a few months.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But this is hard to imagine. And once things do end up at some sort of new “normal,” the global economy may be in the throes of a recession deeper and more enduring than the one suffered in 2009.
In the meantime, everything stands still. And the economic pain grows. Airlines have already taken a battering, having seen their passenger numbers virtually vanish, most of their planes grounded, and their share prices slump by anywhere between 50% and 70% over the past six weeks. The pain has barely just begun.
By the end of the year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects “revenue passenger kilometers” (RPKS) — an airline industry metric that shows the number of kilometers traveled by paying passengers — to have slumped by approximately 27% in North America, 32% in Africa, 37% in Asia Pacific, 39% in the Middle East, 41% in Latin America, and 46% in Europe. In terms of passenger revenues, the impact is expected to range from just 4% in Africa to 50% in North America, 76% in Europe, and an eye-watering 88% in the Asia Pacific region.
On the ground, things look just as bad. The ten countries with the most reported cases of COVID-19 as of three days ago (China, the United States, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, the Republic of Korea, France, Switzerland and the United Kingdom ) account for 34% of world tourist arrivals and 53% of world tourism expenditure. Between them, China and the U.S. alone contribute 29% of total expenditure.
Some of these countries’ economies are massively dependent on the income and jobs provided by the tourism industry. In the case of the U.S., inbound tourism provides 10% of total exports. In France and Italy it’s 8% while in Spain it’s a stunning 16%. In some places such as the Canary Islands and the Balearics, tourism represents over a third of the local economy. For years WOLF STREET has been warning about Spain’s excessive dependence on tourism and the huge risk that dependence could pose in the event of a sudden fall in demand. We never thought the fall could be this dramatic.
In February, even before the restrictions on movement were put in place in Europe, Spain had already registered a 15% year-over-year fall in tourist visa applications. Easter, one of the busiest weeks for tourist arrivals in Spain, has already been ruined. If the crisis lasts as long as four months (it’s already lasted six weeks), it could end up costing the industry €45 billion in lost income, according to the industry group Exceltur. Millions of jobs are also on the line.
The same is happening all over the world, albeit to a slightly lesser degree in many places. Millions of jobs that have been created over the past ten years will be destroyed. UNWTO concludes its assessment by calling for protection of the most vulnerable segments such as SMEs, self-employed and the workers that fill the low paid, casual jobs the tourism industry specializes in creating.
Unfortunately, most of these groups don’t have armies of lawyers and lobbyists to represent them in the corridors of power. While corporations like TUI are well-practiced in the art of extracting money and other favors from government and central banks, small family-run hotels, travel agencies, restaurants and bars, drivers, guides , and the like — which make up the vast bulk of the tourism industry — have barely any practice at all. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The big question: Who is going to bail out whom?

The big question: Who is going to bail out whom? -Plunging corporate earnings & household consumption
-Government spending skyrocketing
-Economy falling to pieces The US government is broke. Increasing money supply won’t fix anything. It's time to buy gold & sell stocks. pic.twitter.com/CiAjibBzwy — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 29, 2020
M2 money supply only surged like this one other time in history. October 2008. We’ve yet to hear of institutions failing. pic.twitter.com/l6UUHPby9E — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 29, 2020
Unprecedented. Commercial & Industrial loans just surged at the highest rate in 73 years. This level of government intervention is unparalleled with anything we’ve seen in history. Not to mention: Every previous spike in loans also preceded a recession. pic.twitter.com/dOvWMxh8ec — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 29, 2020
.@Crescat_Capital: China’s the biggest bubble in the world today the biggest credit bubble and currency bubble, and yet we also have the biggest equity stock market bubble here too @crescatkevin @TaviCosta @rauljpanganiban t.co/2r1BiLenIo @TheBubbleBubble — ValueWalk (@valuewalk) March 30, 2020
The Fed’s efforts aren’t designed to bail out companies that might go under but instead to offer a reassuring backstop to private lending markets. But there are growing fears that more cos will see their credit ratings cut as the US slides toward recessiont.co/whjis1E1z6 — Victoria Guida (@vtg2) March 31, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Scary times for risk-on assets especially at such a late stage of the economic cycle.

Tavi Costa : Trump 's re-election relies on a strong U.S. economy .
The virus outbreak can not be fought @ @ @ @ @ Scary times for risk-on assets especially at such a late stage of the economic cycle @ @ @ @ @ : t.co/M0iWcHzzVu pic.twitter.com/rp6xlwOXgu

Tavi Costa: Trump's re-election relies on a strong U.S. economy. The virus outbreak cannot be fought off with monetary policies. Scary times for risk-on assets especially at such a late stage of the economic cycle. @TaviCosta
Full interview: t.co/M0iWcHzzVu pic.twitter.com/rp6xlwOXgu
— Silver Bullion (@SilverBullionPL) March 30, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--This Is Just One Of Many Ways The World Health Organization Has Been A Pantload Of Fail In This Cris

This Is Just One Of Many Ways The World Health Organization Has Been A Pantload Of Fail In This Crisis:

Why Taiwan has become a problem for WHO .
“ Taiwan is seen as one of the few places in @ @ @ @ @ stemmed the spread of the coronavirus without resorting to draconian measures .
But despite its @ @ @ @ @ effectively locked out of membership in the World Health Organization ( WHO ) due to @ @ @ @ @ ” It ’ s not Taiwan ’ s relationship with China that ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ , the problem is WHO ’ s relationship to China , which is basically a @ @ @

Why Taiwan has become a problem for WHO. “Taiwan is seen as one of the few places in the world which has successfully stemmed the spread of the coronavirus without resorting to draconian measures. But despite its efforts, it is still effectively locked out of membership in the World Health Organization (WHO) due to its complex relationship with China.”
It’s not Taiwan’s relationship with China that’s the problem. Here and elsewhere, the problem is WHO’s relationship to China, which is basically a captive one.
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h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--FIGHTING THE CORONAVIRUS ALSO SEEMS TO INVOLVE A LOT OF FIGHTING THE FDA:

The Trump administration has approved the first system for sterilizing specialized face masks worn by front-line health workers battling the coronavirus , potentially easing the severe shortage of the protective gear .
The FDA also reversed course on a daily cap for the decontamination system , less than 24 hours after Ohio ’ s Republican governor criticized the FDA on Sunday morning for the limit .
As of Sunday night , the agency will let the machines be deployed to sites around the country and there won ’ t be a limit on the number of masks they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue was the FDA ’ s decision to allow emergency use of a Battelle system that decontaminates specialized N95 face masks , allowing doctors and nurses to safely reuse them .
On Saturday , the FDA approved Battelle ’ s Columbus headquarters to sterilize 10,000 masks per day , even though the company says its machines have the capacity to decontaminate 80,000 .
“ The FDA ’ s decision to severely limit the use of this life-saving technology is nothing short of reckless , ” Gov .
Mike DeWine , whose state is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technology , said in a statement Sunday morning .
DeWine said he appealed directly to President Donald Trump to allow broader adoption of the system , and Ohio ’ s attorney general threatened to sue if FDA didn ’ t act quickly to authorize more extensive use .

via politico
The Trump administration has approved the first system for sterilizing specialized face masks worn by front-line health workers battling the coronavirus, potentially easing the severe shortage of the protective gear.
The FDA also reversed course on a daily cap for the decontamination system, less than 24 hours after Ohio’s Republican governor criticized the FDA on Sunday morning for the limit.
As of Sunday night, the agency will let the machines be deployed to sites around the country and there won’t be a limit on the number of masks they’re allowed to clean each day.
At issue was the FDA’s decision to allow emergency use of a Battelle system that decontaminates specialized N95 face masks, allowing doctors and nurses to safely reuse them. On Saturday, the FDA approved Battelle’s Columbus headquarters to sterilize 10,000 masks per day, even though the company says its machines have the capacity to decontaminate 80,000.
“The FDA’s decision to severely limit the use of this life-saving technology is nothing short of reckless,” Gov. Mike DeWine, whose state is home to the company that makes the technology, said in a statement Sunday morning.
DeWine said he appealed directly to President Donald Trump to allow broader adoption of the system, and Ohio’s attorney general threatened to sue if FDA didn’t act quickly to authorize more extensive use.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--“It’s just normal random people doing things that they love to do, and all of a sudden some people a

THEY CHOSE .
.
.
POORLY .
A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal .
Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead .
“ The outbreak has stunned county health officials , who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.
” Also , more argument for masks .
“ The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols , stressing that the virus is spread through much larger respiratory droplets , ’ which are emitted when an infected person coughs or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained ‘ viable and infectious ’ for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.
” Comstock marveled at the randomness of it all .
“ It ’ s just normal random people doing things that they love to do , and all of a sudden some people are dead , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very sobering.
” That ’ s how it works when things aren ’ t normal , during a war or a plague .
Things aren ’ t normal .
Better to realize that sooner than later .

THEY CHOSE . . . POORLY. A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead. “The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.”
Also, more argument for masks. “The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger respiratory droplets,’ which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface. But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained ‘viable and infectious’ for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.”
Plus:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Comstock marveled at the randomness of it all. “It’s just normal random people doing things that they love to do, and all of a sudden some people are dead,” she said. “It’s very sobering.”
That’s how it works when things aren’t normal, during a war or a plague. Things aren’t normal. Better to realize that sooner than later.
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The ‘Small’ Business Administration is now bigger than Walmart

[ Editor ’ s note : this article was corrected on 30 March 2020 ; the proper way to calculate your loan is based on your average monthly ( not annual ) payroll multiplied by 2.5 ] As you ’ ve probably already heard , the US government unleashed a giant tsunami of money on Friday , passing a $ 2 trillion stimulus bill to help boost the economy during the Covid pandemic .
• $ 2 trillion is more than it cost to wage 18+ years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq .
• It ’ s nearly THREE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2008 .
• It exceeds ALL corporate and individual income tax revenue collected by the IRS last year We are clearly living in unprecedented times… and that this bailout is equally unprecedented .
Among the bailout ’ s many provisions ( which go on for more than EIGHT HUNDRED pages ! )
is a whopping $ 350 billion to the Small Businesses Administration .
The Small Business Administration is ordinarily a tiny federal agency .
But this funding exceeds the budgets of the Army and Navy COMBINED .
It ’ s 8x the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s more than the entire market capitalization of Walmart .
You get the idea .
The SBA just became one of the biggest organizations in the world .
Now , in normal times , the SBA ’ s mission is to help startups and small businesses obtain bank loans ; it ’ s usually pretty difficult for a startup to borrow money from a bank loan because the business is too risky , and banks don ’ t want to lend .
So the SBA ’ s role is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They ’ re essentially telling the bank that if the business fails and doesn ’ t pay back the loan , the federal government ( i.e .
American taxpayers ) will make up some of the difference .
This guarantee doesn ’ t make a small business loan risk-free for banks– there are still things that can go wrong .
But the guarantee helps reduce the risk .
But typically , in order to receive an SBA guarantee , business owners have to provide their own ‘ personal guarantee ’ to the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business owner defaults , the government can seize their assets in order to recover loan losses .
That ’ s the way SBA loans normally work .
But these times are not normal .
According to this new bailout legislation , “ no personal guarantee shall be required , ” and the government “ shall have no recourse against any individual shareholder , member , or partner .
.
.
for nonpayment ” .
In other words , the legislation implies that these loans don ’ t have to be paid back .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ no collateral shall be required for the covered loan.
” So you don ’ t even need any assets to qualify .
In fact you need barely anything to qualify… except a pulse .
According to the legislation , “ any business concern , nonprofit organization , veterans organization , or Tribal business .
.
.
shall be eligible to receive a covered loan ” as long as you have fewer than 500 employees .
Honestly the only real requirement is that you have to keep paying your employees .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawmakers wanted to provide funds so that small businesses could continue paying workers .
The maximum loan amount is equal to your average monthly payroll costs over the last 12 months multiplied by 2.5 .
*Payroll costs include salaries , wages , and payments paid to employees and independent contractors , including yourself , up to $ 100,000 each .
It also includes medical insurance payments , retirement benefits , state/local tax , and payments for sick leave , family leave , or vacation .
*Payroll costs do NOT include federal income or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employees based outside of the United States .
And the maximum interest rate ( according to the legislation ) is just 4 % .
[ If you have a pulse qualifying business and you want free money to apply for a loan , you can do so here : covid19relief.sba.gov/ ] Now , I ’ m sure that plenty of people will use these loans as intended– to stay in business , continue paying workers , etc .
And eventually they ’ ll do the honorable thing– pay the loans back , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ honest .
Countless people are going to completely abuse this .
They ’ ll borrow as much money as they can with absolutely no intention of paying back a single penny .
This means there ’ s going to be a ton of loan losses .
Remember– banks are the ones who will be making these loans , using their depositors ’ money .
YOUR money .
And even with the SBA guarantee , there are still things that can go wrong .
If the paperwork was wrong , if the loan wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , if the business didn ’ t actually qualify , etc .
the banks can still suffer losses .
But despite these risks , the legislation specifically tells banks that “ a covered loan shall receive a risk weight of zero percent.
” Translation : banks should count these small business loans as ‘ risk free ’ even though there ’ s a strong chance that tons of people will never pay them back .
The legislation also says that banks “ shall not be required to comply ” with accounting rules that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go bad .
So the government is essentially telling banks to make loans to everyone , with no personal guarantee , no recourse , and no collateral… and to maintain these loans on their books as risk free .
And even when these loans default , to continue reporting them as risk-free .
What could possibly go wrong ?
?
?
It ’ s clearly a great time to be a borrower .
That ’ s one thing we learn from bailouts—they ’ re always going to take care of people in debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt .
But it ’ s more concerning to be a depositor .
Even with the SBA guarantee , it ’ s obvious that banks are riskier than they want you to believe .

by Simon Black
[Editor’s note: this article was corrected on 30 March 2020; the proper way to calculate your loan is based on your average monthly (not annual) payroll multiplied by 2.5]
As you’ve probably already heard, the US government unleashed a giant tsunami of money on Friday, passing a $2 trillion stimulus bill to help boost the economy during the Covid pandemic.
Let’s put that number in context:
$2 trillion is more than it cost to wage 18+ years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq.
It’s nearly THREE times the size of the bailout from 2008.
It exceeds ALL corporate and individual income tax revenue collected by the IRS last year
We are clearly living in unprecedented times… and that this bailout is equally unprecedented.
Among the bailout’s many provisions (which go on for more than EIGHT HUNDRED pages!) is a whopping $350 billion to the Small Businesses Administration.
The Small Business Administration is ordinarily a tiny federal agency. But this funding exceeds the budgets of the Army and Navy COMBINED. It’s 8x the size of the United States Marine Corps. It’s more than the entire market capitalization of Walmart.
You get the idea. The SBA just became one of the biggest organizations in the world.
Now, in normal times, the SBA’s mission is to help startups and small businesses obtain bank loans; it’s usually pretty difficult for a startup to borrow money from a bank loan because the business is too risky, and banks don’t want to lend.
So the SBA’s role is to provide a guarantee for the loan. They’re essentially telling the bank that if the business fails and doesn’t pay back the loan, the federal government (i.e. American taxpayers) will make up some of the difference.
This guarantee doesn’t make a small business loan risk-free for banks– there are still things that can go wrong. But the guarantee helps reduce the risk.
But typically, in order to receive an SBA guarantee, business owners have to provide their own ‘personal guarantee’ to the government. In other words, if the business owner defaults, the government can seize their assets in order to recover loan losses.
That’s the way SBA loans normally work. But these times are not normal.
According to this new bailout legislation, “no personal guarantee shall be required,” and the government “shall have no recourse against any individual shareholder, member, or partner . . . for nonpayment”.
In other words, the legislation implies that these loans don’t have to be paid back.
Moreover, the law also states that “no collateral shall be required for the covered loan.”
So you don’t even need any assets to qualify. In fact you need barely anything to qualify… except a pulse.
According to the legislation, “any business concern, nonprofit organization, veterans organization, or Tribal business. . . shall be eligible to receive a covered loan” as long as you have fewer than 500 employees.
Honestly the only real requirement is that you have to keep paying your employees. That’s the entire point of the legislation– lawmakers wanted to provide funds so that small businesses could continue paying workers.
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The maximum loan amount is equal to your average monthly payroll costs over the last 12 months multiplied by 2.5.
*Payroll costs include salaries, wages, and payments paid to employees and independent contractors, including yourself, up to $100,000 each. It also includes medical insurance payments, retirement benefits, state/local tax, and payments for sick leave, family leave, or vacation.
*Payroll costs do NOT include federal income or unemployment tax withholdings, or compensation for employees based outside of the United States.
And the maximum interest rate (according to the legislation) is just 4%.
[If you have a pulse qualifying business and you want free money to apply for a loan, you can do so here: covid19relief.sba.gov/]
Now, I’m sure that plenty of people will use these loans as intended– to stay in business, continue paying workers, etc. And eventually they’ll do the honorable thing– pay the loans back, with interest.
But let’s be honest. Countless people are going to completely abuse this. They’ll borrow as much money as they can with absolutely no intention of paying back a single penny.
This means there’s going to be a ton of loan losses.
Remember– banks are the ones who will be making these loans, using their depositors’ money. YOUR money.
And even with the SBA guarantee, there are still things that can go wrong. If the paperwork was wrong, if the loan wasn’t made in the prescribed way, if the business didn’t actually qualify, etc. the banks can still suffer losses.
(Taxpayers will obviously suffer huge losses as well.)
But despite these risks, the legislation specifically tells banks that “a covered loan shall receive a risk weight of zero percent.”
Translation: banks should count these small business loans as ‘risk free’ even though there’s a strong chance that tons of people will never pay them back.
The legislation also says that banks “shall not be required to comply” with accounting rules that require them to disclose when their loans go bad.
So the government is essentially telling banks to make loans to everyone, with no personal guarantee, no recourse, and no collateral… and to maintain these loans on their books as risk free. And even when these loans default, to continue reporting them as risk-free.
What could possibly go wrong???
It’s clearly a great time to be a borrower. That’s one thing we learn from bailouts—they’re always going to take care of people in debt, and help people go into more debt.
But it’s more concerning to be a depositor.
Even with the SBA guarantee, it’s obvious that banks are riskier than they want you to believe.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The Financial System Was FUBAR Before The Coronavirus Crisis

“ If you infuse Keynes ’ economic and monetary theories with LSD you end up with MMT ( Mondern Monetary @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus to be sure is the “ black swan ” that pricked the stock bubble @ @ @ @ @ have accomplished the same result .
The Fed started bailing out the banking system in @ @ @ @ @ trillion dollars to save the banks well before anyone had ever heard of coronavirus or @ @ @ @ @ in September that a massive credit problem was starting to bubble up .
The Prepared @ @ @ @ @ ’ Craig Hemke to discuss the Catch-22 global debt problem facilitated by the Central Banks @ @ @ @ @ reset and , of course , gold and silver :

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
“If you infuse Keynes’ economic and monetary theories with LSD you end up with MMT (Mondern Monetary Theory)”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
While the coronavirus to be sure is the “black swan” that pricked the stock bubble, market forces eventually would have accomplished the same result. The Fed started bailing out the banking system in September, printing half a trillion dollars to save the banks well before anyone had ever heard of coronavirus or Covid-19. It knew back in September that a massive credit problem was starting to bubble up.
The Prepared Mind invited myself and TFMetals’ Craig Hemke to discuss the Catch-22 global debt problem facilitated by the Central Banks, the eventual monetary system reset and, of course, gold and silver:


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--WikiLeaks Exposes How Council on Foreign Relations Controls Most All Mainstream Media

It is no secret that over the last 4 decades , mainstream media has been consolidated from dozens of competing companies to only six .
Hundreds of channels , websites , news outlets , newspapers , and magazines , making up ninety percent of all media is controlled by very few people—giving Americans the illusion of choice .
While six companies controlling most everything the Western world consumes in regard to media may sound like a sinister arrangement , the Swiss Propaganda Research center ( SPR ) has just released information that is even worse .
For those who may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary member of the circle of Washington think-tanks promoting endless war .
As former Army Major Todd Pierce describes , this group acts as “ primary provocateurs ” using “ ‘ psychological suggestiveness ’ to create a false narrative of danger from some foreign entity with the objective being to create paranoia within the U.S. population that it is under imminent threat of attack or takeover.
” A senior member of the CFR and outspoken neocon warmonger , Robert Kagan has even publicly proclaimed that the US should create an empire .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is picked up by their secondary communicators , also known the mainstream media , who push it on the populace with no analysis or questioning .
When looking at the chart from SPR , the reach by this single organization is so vast that it is no mystery as to how these elite psychopaths guide Americans into accepting endless war at the expense of their mothers , fathers , sons , and daughters .
Top journalists and executives from all major media companies are integrated into the CFR .
As the chart below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control in the mainstream media than even the nefarious Bilderberg Group and the Trilateral Commission .
As SPR points out , Richard Harwood , former managing editor and ombudsman of the Washington Post , wrote about the Council on Foreign Relations Recognizing that its members most likely correspond to what one might call the “ ruling establishment of the United States.
” Harwood continued , “ The membership of these journalists in the council , however they may think of themselves , is an acknowledgment of their active and important role in public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American ruling class .
They do not merely analyze and interpret foreign policy for the United States ; they help make it.
” Let that sink in .
This group of unaccountable , unelected , professional propagandists in America doesn ’ t simply analyze US government policy—they make it .
While only five percent of the members of CFR work within the media , as SPR points out that is all they need to implement the will of its other members that includes : • several US presidents and vice presidents of both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense and finance ministers ; • most chiefs of staff and commanders of the US military and NATO ; • nearly all National Security Advisers , CIA Directors , UN Ambassadors , Fed Chairmen , World Bank Presidents , and Directors of the National Economic Council ; • some of the most influential members of Congress ( especially foreign and security politicians ) ; • numerous media managers and top journalists , as well as some of the most famous actors ; • numerous prominent academics , especially in the key areas of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ historical sciences , and journalism ; • numerous executives from think tanks , universities , NGOs , and Wall Street ; • and key members of the 9/11 Commission and the Warren Commission ( JFK ) To highlight just how much control over the media the CFR wields we need only look at the fact that they operate—in the open—and receive nearly no media coverage .
The former chairman of the CFR , High Commissioner for Germany , co-founder of the Atlantic Bridge , World Bank president , and an adviser to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ J. McCloy actually bragged publicly about the CFR hand picking US politicians .
Until the election of Trump the past four presidents have been the director of the CFR , George HW Bush , who was replaced by a member of the CFR , Bill Clinton , who was replaced by a family member of the CFR , George W Bush , who was then replaced by CFR aspirant candidate Barack Obama—who filled his cabinet with members of the elite group .
Although Donald Trump was never a public member of the CFR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filling the White House with dozens of CFR members .
Here are just a few of the CFR members appointed by Trump : Even though Trump wasn ’ t a CFR member outright , his cabinet is made up almost entirely of its members .
As this information illustrates—democracy is an illusion .
If ever you needed another reason to tune out of mainstream media and seek out information for yourself—this is it .
It also explains why information like this , which challenges this worldview is under attack .
Please share this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show them just how much of the information , political process , and their lives are controlled by a mere handful of people .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by Venus230
www.transcend.org/tms/2018/02/wikileaks-exposes-how-council-on-foreign-relations-controls-most-all-mainstream-media/
It is no secret that over the last 4 decades, mainstream media has been consolidated from dozens of competing companies to only six. Hundreds of channels, websites, news outlets, newspapers, and magazines, making up ninety percent of all media is controlled by very few people—giving Americans the illusion of choice.
While six companies controlling most everything the Western world consumes in regard to media may sound like a sinister arrangement, the Swiss Propaganda Research center (SPR) has just released information that is even worse.
The research group was able to tie all these media companies to a single organization—the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
For those who may be unaware, the CFR is a primary member of the circle of Washington think-tanks promoting endless war. As former Army Major Todd Pierce describes, this group acts as “primary provocateurs” using “‘psychological suggestiveness’ to create a false narrative of danger from some foreign entity with the objective being to create paranoia within the U.S. population that it is under imminent threat of attack or takeover.”
A senior member of the CFR and outspoken neocon warmonger, Robert Kagan has even publicly proclaimed that the US should create an empire.
The narrative created by CFR and its cohorts is picked up by their secondary communicators, also known the mainstream media, who push it on the populace with no analysis or questioning.
When looking at the chart from SPR, the reach by this single organization is so vast that it is no mystery as to how these elite psychopaths guide Americans into accepting endless war at the expense of their mothers, fathers, sons, and daughters.
Top journalists and executives from all major media companies are integrated into the CFR. As the chart below illustrates, the CFR has even more control in the mainstream media than even the nefarious Bilderberg Group and the Trilateral Commission.
www.transcend.org/tms/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/wikileaks-media-council-foreign-relations-usa.jpg
As SPR points out, Richard Harwood, former managing editor and ombudsman of the Washington Post, wrote about the Council on Foreign Relations Recognizing that its members most likely correspond to what one might call the “ruling establishment of the United States.”
Harwood continued, “The membership of these journalists in the council, however they may think of themselves, is an acknowledgment of their active and important role in public affairs and of their ascension into the American ruling class. They do not merely analyze and interpret foreign policy for the United States; they help make it.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Let that sink in. This group of unaccountable, unelected, professional propagandists in America doesn’t simply analyze US government policy—they make it.
While only five percent of the members of CFR work within the media, as SPR points out that is all they need to implement the will of its other members that includes:

several US presidents and vice presidents of both parties;
almost all foreign, defense and finance ministers;
most chiefs of staff and commanders of the US military and NATO;
nearly all National Security Advisers, CIA Directors, UN Ambassadors, Fed Chairmen, World Bank Presidents, and Directors of the National Economic Council;
some of the most influential members of Congress (especially foreign and security politicians);
numerous media managers and top journalists, as well as some of the most famous actors;
numerous prominent academics, especially in the key areas of economics, international relations, political and historical sciences, and journalism;
numerous executives from think tanks, universities, NGOs, and Wall Street;
and key members of the 9/11 Commission and the Warren Commission (JFK)
To highlight just how much control over the media the CFR wields we need only look at the fact that they operate—in the open—and receive nearly no media coverage. The former chairman of the CFR, High Commissioner for Germany, co-founder of the Atlantic Bridge, World Bank president, and an adviser to a total of nine US presidents, John J. McCloy actually bragged publicly about the CFR hand picking US politicians.
“Whenever we needed a man [in Washington], we just thumbed through the roll of Council members and put through a call to New York [to the CFR’s headquarters office],” said McCloy.
Until the election of Trump the past four presidents have been the director of the CFR, George HW Bush, who was replaced by a member of the CFR, Bill Clinton, who was replaced by a family member of the CFR, George W Bush, who was then replaced by CFR aspirant candidate Barack Obama—who filled his cabinet with members of the elite group.
Although Donald Trump was never a public member of the CFR, that did not stop him from filling the White House with dozens of CFR members.
Here are just a few of the CFR members appointed by Trump:

Elaine Chao, United States Secretary of Transportation (CFR individual member)
Jamie Dimon, Member of Strategic and Policy Forum (CFR corporate member)
Jim Donovan, Deputy Treasury Secretary (CFR corporate member)
Larry Fink, Member of Strategic and Policy Forum (CFR corporate member)
Neil M. Gorsuch, Supreme Court Justice (individual CFR member)
Vice Admiral Robert S. Harward, National Security Advisor (declined appointment) (CFR corporate member)
Even though Trump wasn’t a CFR member outright, his cabinet is made up almost entirely of its members. As this information illustrates—democracy is an illusion. If ever you needed another reason to tune out of mainstream media and seek out information for yourself—this is it. It also explains why information like this, which challenges this worldview is under attack.
Please share this article with your friends and family to show them just how much of the information, political process, and their lives are controlled by a mere handful of people.
Board of Directors – Council on Foreign Relations: www.cfr.org/board-directors
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Remember when the WHO director said “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission” of the COVID-

Remember when the WHO director said “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission” of the COVID-19? Then 2 months later tried to say the world was “slow to react”? Good times

the WHO is not a reliable source of information and they do not care about your well being .
This @ @ @ @ @ used to push agendas .
Read more about this guy , the first director of @ @ @ @ @ Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views @ @ @

the WHO is not a reliable source of information and they do not care about your well being. This is just a NWO organization used to push agendas.
Read more about this guy, the first director of WHO without a medical degree
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.roughestimate.org/roughestimate/the-crimes-of-tedros-adhanom
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Trump just destroyed Maddow

Trump just destroyed Maddow

● Shot : “ In terms of the happy talk we ’ ve had on this front from the federal @ @ @ @ @ sign that the Navy hospital ships that the president made such a big deal of @ @ @ @ @ Mercy , there ’ s no sign that they ` ll be anywhere on-site helping @ @ @ @ @ for weeks yet .
The president said when he announced that those ships would be @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 epidemic .
He said one of those ships would be operational in New York @ @ @ @ @ That ` s nonsense .
It will not be there next week.
” ● Chaser @ @ @ @ @ in L.A. on Friday , March 27 , just one week after Maddow said the @ @ @ @ @ arrive .
The USNS Comfort arrived in New York City ’ s harbor on Monday @ @ @ @ @ “ Rachel Maddow Calls The Timely Arrival Of Navy Hospital Ships ‘ Nonsense , ’ @ @ @ @ @

PROFILES OF THE FUTURE:
● Shot: “In terms of the happy talk we’ve had on this front from the federal government, there is no sign that the Navy hospital ships that the president made such a big deal of, the Comfort and the Mercy, there’s no sign that they`ll be anywhere on-site helping out anywhere in the country for weeks yet. The president said when he announced that those ships would be put into action against the COVID-19 epidemic. He said one of those ships would be operational in New York harbor by next week. That`s nonsense. It will not be there next week.”
—MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, March 20th.
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● Chaser: “The Mercy arrived in L.A. on Friday, March 27, just one week after Maddow said the ship will take weeks to arrive. The USNS Comfort arrived in New York City’s harbor on Monday, March 30.”
—“Rachel Maddow Calls The Timely Arrival Of Navy Hospital Ships ‘Nonsense,’” the Federalist today.
h/t ED


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--WHO takes its orders from the Chinese government, who wanted to silence reports early on so they wou

WHO takes its orders from the Chinese government, who wanted to silence reports early on so they wouldn’t have to cancel Chinese New years celebrations. The largest day of international air travel in the whole year.

China is controlling what the WHO publishes .
Go read through this media list starting early this year in January @ @ @ @ @ The China has contained it narrative is an excuse to spread the virus globally from @ @ @ @ @ day of International air travel .
Notice the tone changes after the New Years ( @ @ @ @ @ “ Stopping the spread of this virus both in China and globally is WHO ’ @ @ @ @ @ said Dr Tedros .
“ We appreciate the seriousness with which China is taking this @ @ @ @ @ from top leadership , and the transparency they have demonstrated , including sharing data and @ @ @ @ @ .
WHO is working closely with the government on measures to understand the virus and @ @ @ @ @ keep working side-by-side with China and all other countries to protect health and keep people @ @ @ @ @ is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by BrockCage
China is controlling what the WHO publishes. Go read through this media list starting early this year in January on the WHO website. The China has contained it narrative is an excuse to spread the virus globally from Chinese New Years the largest day of International air travel. Notice the tone changes after the New Years (Jan 25th, 2020)
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Ex:
“Stopping the spread of this virus both in China and globally is WHO’s highest priority,” said Dr Tedros. “We appreciate the seriousness with which China is taking this outbreak, especially the commitment from top leadership, and the transparency they have demonstrated, including sharing data and genetic sequence of the virus. WHO is working closely with the government on measures to understand the virus and limit transmission. WHO will keep working side-by-side with China and all other countries to protect health and keep people safe.”
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--For those of you age 17-24 AND your parents/guardians claim you as a dependent you will receive $0 i

For those of you age 17-24 AND your parents/guardians claim you as a dependent you will receive $0 in government stimulus checks. Your parents/guardians are not eligible to receive the $500 per child or $1,200 per adult.

COVID-19 continues to impact the United States , the federal government is taking action to ease the burden on taxpayers .
Most recently , Congress passed a massive stimulus package .
A key feature of the stimulus is individual checks .
You can read my rundown on the basics of the stimulus checks here – along with answers to popular questions .
I ’ ve been updating it regularly as readers submit questions ( here ’ s how to ask ) .
One of the most popular questions is : What happens to kids who have aged out of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what we know from the bill : Stimulus checks will be $ 1,200 per adult – or $ 2,400 for married couples filing jointly – and an additional $ 500 per child , subject to income limits .
For purposes of getting the $ 500 per child , the bill uses the same definition for a child as you ’ d use for the child tax credit .
The sticking point for most parents for this purpose is age : the child must be under age 17 at the end of the tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get $ 500 for a child above the age of 16 , even if they live with you and eat your food and spend your money and sleep in your house .
And I get that it ’ s unfair .
You don ’ t have to send me angry emails .
I have a child who fits that bill .
She got left out of the stimulus plan .
It stinks .
But if you want to be mad at someone , be mad at Congress .
So if you can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think that the child could simply qualify on their own for a check .
Unfortunately , that ’ s not the case for all adult children : dependents are not eligible to receive a separate check .
They ’ re excluded under the language in the bill .
Who qualifies as a dependent ?
A dependent is a qualifying child or qualifying relative .
The Internal Revenue Service ( IRS ) clarifies , at Pub 501 , that a qualifying child meets the following criteria :

via Forbes:
COVID-19 continues to impact the United States, the federal government is taking action to ease the burden on taxpayers. Most recently, Congress passed a massive stimulus package. A key feature of the stimulus is individual checks.
You can read my rundown on the basics of the stimulus checks here – along with answers to popular questions. I’ve been updating it regularly as readers submit questions (here’s how to ask). One of the most popular questions is: What happens to kids who have aged out of the child tax credit?
Here’s what we know from the bill: Stimulus checks will be $1,200 per adult – or $2,400 for married couples filing jointly – and an additional $500 per child, subject to income limits.
For purposes of getting the $500 per child, the bill uses the same definition for a child as you’d use for the child tax credit. The sticking point for most parents for this purpose is age: the child must be under age 17 at the end of the tax year. That means you do not get $500 for a child above the age of 16, even if they live with you and eat your food and spend your money and sleep in your house.
And I get that it’s unfair. You don’t have to send me angry emails. I have a child who fits that bill. She got left out of the stimulus plan. It stinks. But if you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Congress.
So if you can’t claim your child, you might think that the child could simply qualify on their own for a check. Unfortunately, that’s not the case for all adult children: dependents are not eligible to receive a separate check. They’re excluded under the language in the bill.
Who qualifies as a dependent? A dependent is a qualifying child or qualifying relative. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) clarifies, at Pub 501, that a qualifying child meets the following criteria:


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--US cases daily increase under 20% for the first time

Daily New Cases in the US seem to be levelling off at around 20K .
We may be reaching the @ @ @ @ @ rather than later .
Deaths however , which lag new cases generally , continue to @ @ @ @ @ to rise for some time , imo .

by jsalsman
Daily New Cases in the US seem to be levelling off at around 20K.
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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We may be reaching the peak of new infections sooner rather than later.
Deaths however, which lag new cases generally, continue to rise and can be expected to rise for some time, imo.
h/t Builder