investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The Insanity of the Times – The Power Grab But to What End?

Am a long time blog follower , as well as a Plus membership subscriber .
I penned this poem about @ @ @ @ @ with this Corona episode .
I was hoping that you could share it with the @ @ @ @ @ Hour after hour day after day , mainstream and state media has the same thing @ @ @ @ @ panic amongst the masses , gotten to the point where many can not find the @ @ @ @ @ asses .
A lot of societies vulnerable have lost their employment , living on government @ @ @ @ @ Perhaps this will all pass in a matter of time , though probably not before @ @ @ @ @ .
Government says we can not leave our door , yet every year the common @ @ @ @ @ .
So isolate yourself and follow our news , makes one wonder if this is @ @ @ @ @ I surely am not the lone informed soul , understanding the endgame is more government @ @

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT:
Hi,
Am a long time blog follower, as well as a Plus membership subscriber.
I penned this poem about the absurdity that is happening with this Corona episode. I was hoping that you could share it with the public on your blog.
Hour after hour day after day,
mainstream and state media has the same thing to say.
Causing a panic amongst the masses,
gotten to the point where many cannot find the material to wipe their own asses.
A lot of societies vulnerable have lost their employment,
living on government handouts brings no enjoyment.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Media aggression,
has caused a severe depression.
Perhaps this will all pass in a matter of time,
though probably not before a major surge in crime.
Government says we cannot leave our door,
yet every year the common flu kills so many more.
So isolate yourself and follow our news,
makes one wonder if this is all just a ruse?
I surely am not the lone informed soul,
understanding the endgame is more government control!
Regards,
CR


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Panic is Subsiding… But What Will Be the Secondary Effects?

Stocks are up somewhat this morning .
This marks the second Monday stocks will open in the green ( last Monday was a green open as well ) following two horrifically bad weekend sessions that saw stocks open limit down or close to limit down ( March 2nd and 9th ) .
In the simplest of terms , the panic in the markets appears to be abating .
It is clear stocks have broken the downtrend from the panic ( blue lines ) .
What is not clear is whether this rally will continue or not .
Stocks stalled out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week .
A break above that line would open the door to a run to 3,000 .
At the end of the day , stocks are actually a minor player in this mess .
The BIG story is what happens with the bond markets .
Going into last week , it was clear the financial system was facing a debt crisis .
Across the board everything from corporate bonds to municipal bonds were breaking down in a catastrophic fashion .
The Fed managed to stop this massacre by announcing it would backstop everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be enough .
Bonds have staged a major bounce in the last five days , but what happens if they turn down again ?
Will the Fed ’ s announcement that it intends to buy corporate bonds be enough to stop the $ 10 trillion corporate bond bubble from imploding ?
What about the $ 16- $ 19 trillion commercial real estate market ?
Will the shutdown , which has closed so many restaurants and retailers , result in a crisis in this market as businesses begin skipping monthly payments or breaking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 23 trillion U.S. treasury bubble ?
Will the $ 2 trillion in stimulus , which both the President and the Democrats have suggested will be the first of several , be what finally pushes the U.S. ’ s debt loads into a crisis ?
We don ’ t have answers to any of these questions yet .
The fact stocks have rallied 17 % makes investors feel better about things , but it doesn ’ t do anything to address the larger systemic issues facing the markets today .
Indeed , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain is that the Powers That Be are going to address ALL of these issues by printing money .
And that is going to induce higher inflation .
Note that Gold has broken out against the $ USD , the Japanese Yen , and the Euro .
This is telling us that the first round of the crisis , the deflationary collapse , will be ending .
But the second round , the INFLATIONARY tidal wave , is only just beginning .
On that note , we just published a Special Investment Report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm .
And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU .
We are making just 99 copies available to the public .
To pick up yours , swing by :

Stocks are up somewhat this morning.
This marks the second Monday stocks will open in the green (last Monday was a green open as well) following two horrifically bad weekend sessions that saw stocks open limit down or close to limit down (March 2nd and 9th).
In the simplest of terms, the panic in the markets appears to be abating. It is clear stocks have broken the downtrend from the panic (blue lines). What is not clear is whether this rally will continue or not.
Stocks stalled out under resistance (red line) last week. A break above that line would open the door to a run to 3,000.
At the end of the day, stocks are actually a minor player in this mess. The BIG story is what happens with the bond markets.
Going into last week, it was clear the financial system was facing a debt crisis. Across the board everything from corporate bonds to municipal bonds were breaking down in a catastrophic fashion.
The Fed managed to stop this massacre by announcing it would backstop everything.
The question now is whether that will be enough. Bonds have staged a major bounce in the last five days, but what happens if they turn down again?
Will the Fed’s announcement that it intends to buy corporate bonds be enough to stop the $10 trillion corporate bond bubble from imploding?
What about the $16-$19 trillion commercial real estate market? Will the shutdown, which has closed so many restaurants and retailers, result in a crisis in this market as businesses begin skipping monthly payments or breaking contracts outright?
And what about the $23 trillion U.S. treasury bubble? Will the $2 trillion in stimulus, which both the President and the Democrats have suggested will be the first of several, be what finally pushes the U.S.’s debt loads into a crisis?
We don’t have answers to any of these questions yet.
The fact stocks have rallied 17% makes investors feel better about things, but it doesn’t do anything to address the larger systemic issues facing the markets today.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Indeed, the only thing of which we CAN be certain is that the Powers That Be are going to address ALL of these issues by printing money.
And that is going to induce higher inflation.
Note that Gold has broken out against the $USD, the Japanese Yen, and the Euro.
This is telling us that the first round of the crisis, the deflationary collapse, will be ending. But the second round, the INFLATIONARY tidal wave, is only just beginning.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.
We are making just 99 copies available to the public.
To pick up yours, swing by:
www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Congress and the Fed Just Opened the Stimulus Floodgates

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures , as they say , and the past number of days have been nothing if not total confirmation of that adage .
As of Monday morning , the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. stood at more than 143,000 , with New York City appearing to have become the new global epicenter of the pandemic .
Hospitals in the hardest-hit areas of the countries “ have passed a tipping point , ” writes the Wall Street Journal .
New York has had to quickly set up makeshift treatment centers and morgues in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread of infection .
In light of the surge in new cases , President Donald Trump extended social distancing guidelines to April 30 after earlier questioning whether the “ cure ” was worse than the problem .
To be clear , the “ cure ” has taken an unprecedented toll on the U.S. and world economies .
Initial jobless claims soared to a new record high of 3.28 million people as layoffs around the country have accelerated .
As recently as February , the weekly figure was little more than 200,000 , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rapid the economic deterioration has been .
The tidal wave of people seeking jobless benefits of last week was so great , in fact , that state-run unemployment websites reportedly couldn ’ t handle the traffic and were crashing .
In a press conference following the data ’ s release , Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called the jobless number “ not relevant , ” saying that the president “ is protecting those people.
” Indeed , “ protection ” is on the way , with Congress and the Federal Reserve both opening the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen before .
Trillions in Assistance Headed to U.S .
Families and Businesses , Including Airlines On Friday , Congress approved and President Trump signed into law a $ 2.2 trillion emergency economic stimulus package , the largest in U.S. history , meaning sometime soon , most American adults will be receiving a one-time payment of $ 1,200 in cash .
( The median personal income in the U.S. as of last year was around $ 40,000 , well below the $ 75,000 cutoff point to receive the full amount . )
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 500 per child .
Remarkably , the final vote in the Senate for the landmark bill was a unanimous 96 to 0 , which demonstrates to me just how united lawmakers are in getting help to struggling families and businesses .
In 2009 , when the Senate voted in favor of the $ 787 billion stimulus bill to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis , the tally was 60 to 38––just barely enough to pass .
Included within the stimulus package is $ 50 billion in earmarked liquidity for coronavirus-hit domestic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in loans and guarantees for passenger carriers and $ 25 billion in direct grants .
I ’ m pleased to see that airline stocks bounced off their lows as deep-value investors such as Warren Buffett have sought discounted exposure to an industry that I believe most people consider essential in today ’ s interconnected world .
Some 2.8 million passengers flew every day in and out of U.S. airports in 2019 , according to the Federal Aviation Administration ( FAA ) .
The industry also generated a whopping 10.6 million U.S. jobs , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As for the Federal Reserve , the central bank is poised to “ spray trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy , ” according to Bloomberg .
As of March 26 , the size of the Fed ’ s balance sheet had shot up to a never-before-seen $ 5.25 trillion , far beyond anything it did in the months and years following the financial crisis .
As I ’ ve discussed plenty of times before , such massive levels of money printing has historically been supportive of gold .
In September 2011 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its balance sheet , the precious metal ’ s price hit its all-time high of $ 1,900 an ounce .
With real rates already below 0 percent , the Fed has little choice right now than to jump directly to extreme measures .
That means loading up on Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities ( MBS ) “ in the amount needed , ” as the central bank put it in a press release dated March 23 .
I believe this policy will once again be constructive for gold , and so it may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold , but also the gold miners .
The strategy has been a good one so far this year , as you can see in the chart below .
Compared to other major assets , gold ’ s decline was minimal year-to-date through March 18 , helping investors limit net losses in their portfolios .
As for gold mining companies , shares have fallen with the broader stock market , but I believe producers are beginning to look very attractive as investors take note of the revenue and free cash flow they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Last Monday , the price of gold ended the day up $ 83 an ounce , or 5.6 percent––the biggest single-day dollar amount gain in the history of gold trading .
The previous record was set on October 25 , 2011 , when it advanced $ 70 an ounce .
We ’ ll see the final results when gold and precious metal miners report quarterly earnings , but if you ’ re asking for my opinion now , I think they ’ re in a good position to beat expectations .
Short-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday , meaning if you held them to maturity , you would be guaranteed a loss .
I believe investors seeking a safe haven right now would be better off buying gold and gold mining stocks .
And if it ’ s equities you ’ re looking for , there couldn ’ t be a better time than now to go bargain hunting .
Business activity in the eurozone collapsed at the fastest rate ever recorded by IHS Markit in March .
The composite purchasing manager ’ s index ( PMI ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sectors , plunged from 51.6 in February to 31.4 , the lowest reading on record since the series began––lower even than during the global financial crisis .
As a reminder , this is preliminary data .
We ’ ll have the final PMI results on Wednesday , but I don ’ t expect to see much change .
Take a look at the impact the virus may have on global fuel demand .
IHS Markit has modeled out what it believes will be fuel consumption declines on a scale that ’ s never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on travel that ’ s deeply affected commerce .
Although this is a global pandemic , “ demand destruction will be most severe in Europe and North America , ” writes Rob Smith , director of IHS Markit ’ s Refining and Marketing group .
In April , European and North American fuel demand could drop by half ( or more ! )
compared to the same month in 2019 .
“ Most airlines are culling their flight schedule by upwards of 50 percent , ” Smith says , “ with most European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their flights .
And speaking of Europe , commuter vehicle traffic in heavily affected cities like Milan , Paris and Madrid has fallen as much as 80 percent after lockdown measures took effect .
Meanwhile , vehicle mileage in the U.S. is “ only ” expected to contract by 55 percent.
” “ The global auto industry , ” IHS Markit continues in a press release dated March 26 , “ is expected to witness an unprecedented and almost instant stalling of demand in 2020 , with global auto sales forecast to plummet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 78.8 million units.
” As I said earlier , these could be attractive buying opportunities !

by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors
Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures, as they say, and the past number of days have been nothing if not total confirmation of that adage.
As of Monday morning, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. stood at more than 143,000, with New York City appearing to have become the new global epicenter of the pandemic.
Hospitals in the hardest-hit areas of the countries “have passed a tipping point,” writes the Wall Street Journal. New York has had to quickly set up makeshift treatment centers and morgues in Central Park and elsewhere to meet the spread of infection.
In light of the surge in new cases, President Donald Trump extended social distancing guidelines to April 30 after earlier questioning whether the “cure” was worse than the problem.
To be clear, the “cure” has taken an unprecedented toll on the U.S. and world economies.
Initial jobless claims soared to a new record high of 3.28 million people as layoffs around the country have accelerated. As recently as February, the weekly figure was little more than 200,000, a historically low number, showing just how rapid the economic deterioration has been. The tidal wave of people seeking jobless benefits of last week was so great, in fact, that state-run unemployment websites reportedly couldn’t handle the traffic and were crashing.
click to enlarge
In a press conference following the data’s release, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called the jobless number “not relevant,” saying that the president “is protecting those people.”
Indeed, “protection” is on the way, with Congress and the Federal Reserve both opening the stimulus floodgates as we’ve never seen before.
Trillions in Assistance Headed to U.S. Families and Businesses, Including Airlines
On Friday, Congress approved and President Trump signed into law a $2.2 trillion emergency economic stimulus package, the largest in U.S. history, meaning sometime soon, most American adults will be receiving a one-time payment of $1,200 in cash. (The median personal income in the U.S. as of last year was around $40,000, well below the $75,000 cutoff point to receive the full amount.) On top of that, families will receive $500 per child.
Remarkably, the final vote in the Senate for the landmark bill was a unanimous 96 to 0, which demonstrates to me just how united lawmakers are in getting help to struggling families and businesses. In 2009, when the Senate voted in favor of the $787 billion stimulus bill to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis, the tally was 60 to 38––just barely enough to pass.
Included within the stimulus package is $50 billion in earmarked liquidity for coronavirus-hit domestic airlines. This includes $25 billion in loans and guarantees for passenger carriers and $25 billion in direct grants.
I’m pleased to see that airline stocks bounced off their lows as deep-value investors such as Warren Buffett have sought discounted exposure to an industry that I believe most people consider essential in today’s interconnected world. Some 2.8 million passengers flew every day in and out of U.S. airports in 2019, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The industry also generated a whopping 10.6 million U.S. jobs, or 1 out of every 15 jobs.
As for the Federal Reserve, the central bank is poised to “spray trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy,” according to Bloomberg. As of March 26, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet had shot up to a never-before-seen $5.25 trillion, far beyond anything it did in the months and years following the financial crisis.
click to enlarge
Time to Buy the Gold Miners?
As I’ve discussed plenty of times before, such massive levels of money printing has historically been supportive of gold. In September 2011, when the Fed was rapidly expanding its balance sheet, the precious metal’s price hit its all-time high of $1,900 an ounce.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
With real rates already below 0 percent, the Fed has little choice right now than to jump directly to extreme measures. That means loading up on Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) “in the amount needed,” as the central bank put it in a press release dated March 23.
I believe this policy will once again be constructive for gold, and so it may be prudent to consider buying not just physical gold, but also the gold miners.
The strategy has been a good one so far this year, as you can see in the chart below. Compared to other major assets, gold’s decline was minimal year-to-date through March 18, helping investors limit net losses in their portfolios.
click to enlarge
As for gold mining companies, shares have fallen with the broader stock market, but I believe producers are beginning to look very attractive as investors take note of the revenue and free cash flow they’re generating because of higher metal prices. Last Monday, the price of gold ended the day up $83 an ounce, or 5.6 percent––the biggest single-day dollar amount gain in the history of gold trading. The previous record was set on October 25, 2011, when it advanced $70 an ounce.
We’ll see the final results when gold and precious metal miners report quarterly earnings, but if you’re asking for my opinion now, I think they’re in a good position to beat expectations.
Short-term Treasury yields dipped below 0 percent last Monday, meaning if you held them to maturity, you would be guaranteed a loss. I believe investors seeking a safe haven right now would be better off buying gold and gold mining stocks.
click to enlarge
Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunities
And if it’s equities you’re looking for, there couldn’t be a better time than now to go bargain hunting. Business activity in the eurozone collapsed at the fastest rate ever recorded by IHS Markit in March. The composite purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which includes both the manufacturing and services sectors, plunged from 51.6 in February to 31.4, the lowest reading on record since the series began––lower even than during the global financial crisis.
As a reminder, this is preliminary data. We’ll have the final PMI results on Wednesday, but I don’t expect to see much change.
click to enlarge
Take a look at the impact the virus may have on global fuel demand. IHS Markit has modeled out what it believes will be fuel consumption declines on a scale that’s never occurred before, due to widespread restrictions on travel that’s deeply affected commerce. Although this is a global pandemic, “demand destruction will be most severe in Europe and North America,” writes Rob Smith, director of IHS Markit’s Refining and Marketing group. In April, European and North American fuel demand could drop by half (or more!) compared to the same month in 2019.
click to enlarge
“Most airlines are culling their flight schedule by upwards of 50 percent,” Smith says, “with most European airlines cancelling better than 90 percent of their flights. And speaking of Europe, commuter vehicle traffic in heavily affected cities like Milan, Paris and Madrid has fallen as much as 80 percent after lockdown measures took effect. Meanwhile, vehicle mileage in the U.S. is “only” expected to contract by 55 percent.”
“The global auto industry,” IHS Markit continues in a press release dated March 26, “is expected to witness an unprecedented and almost instant stalling of demand in 2020, with global auto sales forecast to plummet more than 12 percent from 2019, to 78.8 million units.”
As I said earlier, these could be attractive buying opportunities!


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Student Loan Repayments Put On Hold with Sam McElroy

Sam McElroy returns to the program… Student loan borrowers can suspend payments for 60 days without interest Borrowers with federal student loans will be able to pause their payments for two months without interest accruing , President Donald Trump and the Education Department said Friday .
The move is an effort to help those financially affected by the spread of the coronavirus .
Trump had announced last week the government would waive interest on federally held loans last week , but few details had been available .
The suspension will be in effect for at least 60 days , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Right now , everyone should be focused on staying safe and healthy , not worrying about their student loan balance growing , ” said Education Secretary Betsy DeVos in a news release .
“ I commend President Trump for his quick action on this issue , and I hope it provides meaningful help and peace of mind to those in need.
” Colleges have gone online : In two weeks , the future of college has become uncertain , thanks to coronavirus Borrowers will have to contact their loan servicers to request the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unclear how quickly those agencies will be able to respond to those requests.Those who still want to make their payments can do so .
The payment in that case would be applied directly to the principal balance , which may allow some borrowers to pay off their loan more quickly .
Those in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program who have to make 120 payments before their loan is forgiven may also be interested in continuing to make payments , the release said .
College student loans : Debt hits a new high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as free tuition plans spread .
The department also authorized suspension of automatic payments for borrowers more than 31 days delinquent as of March 13 , or anyone who becomes 31 days delinquent .
Pausing loan payments is one of the many financial measures lawmakers have considered to ease the financial burden caused by the coronavirus .
Some Senate Democrats have proposed that the Education Department be authorized to make payments on borrowers ’ loans .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ’ s plan called for a pause for three months and would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an additional three months on top of that .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Financial Survival Network
Sam McElroy returns to the program… Student loan borrowers can suspend payments for 60 days without interest Borrowers with federal student loans will be able to pause their payments for two months without interest accruing, President Donald Trump and the Education Department said Friday. The move is an effort to help those financially affected by the spread of the coronavirus. Trump had announced last week the government would waive interest on federally held loans last week, but few details had been available. The suspension will be in effect for at least 60 days, and it started on March 13. “Right now, everyone should be focused on staying safe and healthy, not worrying about their student loan balance growing,” said Education Secretary Betsy DeVos in a news release. “I commend President Trump for his quick action on this issue, and I hope it provides meaningful help and peace of mind to those in need.” Colleges have gone online: In two weeks, the future of college has become uncertain, thanks to coronavirus Borrowers will have to contact their loan servicers to request the pause in payments. It’s unclear how quickly those agencies will be able to respond to those requests.Those who still want to make their payments can do so. The payment in that case would be applied directly to the principal balance, which may allow some borrowers to pay off their loan more quickly. Those in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program who have to make 120 payments before their loan is forgiven may also be interested in continuing to make payments, the release said. College student loans: Debt hits a new high in 2018, though growth slows, as free tuition plans spread. The department also authorized suspension of automatic payments for borrowers more than 31 days delinquent as of March 13, or anyone who becomes 31 days delinquent. Pausing loan payments is one of the many financial measures lawmakers have considered to ease the financial burden caused by the coronavirus. Some Senate Democrats have proposed that the Education Department be authorized to make payments on borrowers’ loans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s plan called for a pause for three months and would give DeVos the ability to suspend payments for an additional three months on top of that.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--TEXAS LOCKING DOWN IT’S BORDER

TEXAS LOCKING DOWN IT’S BORDER

Cross into TEXAS and you go into quarantine for 14days !

Cross into TEXAS and you go into quarantine for 14days!
gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/EO-GA-12_roadway_quarantine_for_COVID-19_IMAGE_03-29-2020.pdf
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h/t Trio


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Arizona cancels school for remainder of school year; Pennsylvania School/Business Closures now exten

Arizona cancels school for remainder of school year; Pennsylvania School/Business Closures now extended INDEFINTITELY

PHOENIX — Arizona schools will remain closed for the remainder of the school year , according to a Monday notice from state officials .
Governor Doug Ducey and Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman released the following statement Monday : “ In alignment with yesterday ’ s updated federal guidance , today we are announcing the extension of school closures through the remainder of the school year .
Today ’ s announcement is intended to give parents and educators as much certainty as possible so they can plan and make decisions .
While this isn ’ t the outcome any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the partnership of schools around the state , who have stepped up to offer virtual and take-home learning opportunities for our students .
These efforts are crucial , and we recognize that schools are making every effort possible to continue providing instruction during closures .
We also thank our legislative partners for passing legislation ensuring all educators and staff see no disruption in pay .
Our number one priority will continue to be health and safety , and we will continue to work closely with public health officials to make the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our school communities .
”

PHOENIX — Arizona schools will remain closed for the remainder of the school year, according to a Monday notice from state officials.
Governor Doug Ducey and Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman released the following statement Monday:
“In alignment with yesterday’s updated federal guidance, today we are announcing the extension of school closures through the remainder of the school year. Today’s announcement is intended to give parents and educators as much certainty as possible so they can plan and make decisions. While this isn’t the outcome any of us wanted, we are grateful for the partnership of schools around the state, who have stepped up to offer virtual and take-home learning opportunities for our students. These efforts are crucial, and we recognize that schools are making every effort possible to continue providing instruction during closures. We also thank our legislative partners for passing legislation ensuring all educators and staff see no disruption in pay. Our number one priority will continue to be health and safety, and we will continue to work closely with public health officials to make the best decisions for kids, families, and our school communities.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The Week That Grim Coronavirus Data And Bad Economic Data Mix And Spark The Collapse

SD Outlook : This week , people will likely come to terms with the stark reality of facing economic collapse along with the collapse of US healthcare… Is this the week that US healthcare collapses ?
I keep seeing images of tents and whatnots being erected outside of major hospitals around the nation .
The stark reality is that Americans , in general , in my opinion , are much less healthy than people of other nations , developed or otherwise , and I don ’ t think it ’ s too far of a stretch to say Americans are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s what I see when I ’ m out-and-about , which admittedly I haven ’ t been in some weeks .
Therefore , if Americans , on average , need more medical resources available to them when they get ill , or injured , or whatever , then just how long is the healthcare system going to hold up when we have a raging epidemic ripping through the nation with a peak that ’ s weeks if not months from now ?
Said differently , the US healthcare system is already handicapped by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re already behind the curve as far as being able to deal with coronavirus .
Now , mix in healthcare worker attrition , be it brought on by sickness , quarantine , death , mental breakdown , walking away , or myriad reasons .
In other words , we ’ re already off to a bad start , but what makes matters worse is that between a healthcare system that can ’ t handle the developing crisis anyway to a healthcare system that is uber-expensive , financially complex and the direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the perfect time for the federal government to swoop in and nationalize the entire healthcare industry in the US .
Not to worry about the elite private medical care stuff – it ’ s a buddy-buddy system in the United States , so contracts will be friendly and exceptions will be made !
For everybody else , well , unless you can afford the elite private medical care stuff , then just hope you don ’ t die in the waiting room .
This is the week the bad data starts rolling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data releases this week , and on Friday , we get the March 2020 Employment Situation Report , commonly called the jobs report .
Needless to say , the collapse of healthcare is being met with the stark reality of economic collapse , and we ’ ll get the sour taste of that in the jobs report .
No matter what happens this week , there are no good fundamentals for the stock market : I ’ d be looking for the market to rollover here , but then again , I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inside , so I wouldn ’ t know what they will attempt .
The VIX is primed for a break-out or a break-down : If bad news is bad news again , we could see volatility kick-in as market participants sell last week ’ s ferocious rally .
That would give the market riggers the narrative needed to cover of the flight-to-safety into the US bond market : Naturally , of course , with so many Treasury ’ s being whipped-up so Trump can give everybody in America a unicorn and a rainbow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates up , not down , but we live in a world where markets are not natural , so enjoy the unicorn and rainbow , and the ultra-low interest rates .
That is , until the bond market blows-up .
And to think – since I never saw Trump ’ s celebrity cooking show , or those other shows he was on , and I never really new how good of an “ actor ” he was as in 2016 I was only really seeing him for the first time , so yeah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he said he was going to make government smaller and do all of the pro-liberty things he said he would do .
Geez , what an idiot I was for thinking there was hope for our totally evil and corrupt political system in the US .
Enjoy the relatively strong dollar while you can : Whether the value of the dollar rises or falls is moot .
It ’ s moot because there have been too many dollars printed , and now we ’ re all having to deal with a global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many dollars chasing fewer and fewer goods , which is exactly why the dollar might be strengthening , but the cost of goods is rising at the same time .
This , in part , is the reason they want people invested in financial products generally , and in the US stock market and bond market specifically .
I ’ ve been saying for some time , there ’ s only so much crude oil that can be stored : Personally , my family has used less than a gallon of gasoline in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much easier to store than crude oil : Which is why I think copper will be stacked as a hedge as the world ’ s reserve currency hyper-inflates away into the dustbin of fiat currency history .
Platinum may be showing signs that the flight to safety bid is on : The chartists out there , however , are looking at platinum ’ s death cross and looking for a rollover .
I ’ m sure people are out there saying that palladium is ‘ consolidating ’ around its 50-day moving average : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re at the point of being able to use charts again .
I think it ’ s silver that closes the gap , not gold , but even if the gap were somehow to widen from here , good luck trying to find any physical silver anywhere near that paper price .
Gold has been bid , will remain bid , and right now gold ’ s price on paper is around the $ 1650 mark : If this global pandemic is teaching the people one thing , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and if being prepared also means being prepared financially , it ’ s safe to say that some will learn the truth about what it means to be financially prepared .
Translation : Even after this pandemic peaks and a sense of “ normalcy ” begins to return , gold ( and silver ) will still be bid as people look to better financially prepare themselves for the future .
And then there was silver : Bottom line as we find ourselves here these beautiful last days of March ?
This looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthcare system collapses .
I think will people finally come to terms with this grim reality .
Additionally , they ’ ll be hit with bad news on the economy .
The panic will spill into the streets .
Google Et .
Al will try to censor .
Adapt to this new .

via silverdoctors
SD Outlook: This week, people will likely come to terms with the stark reality of facing economic collapse along with the collapse of US healthcare…
Is this the week that US healthcare collapses?
I keep seeing images of tents and whatnots being erected outside of major hospitals around the nation.
The stark reality is that Americans, in general, in my opinion, are much less healthy than people of other nations, developed or otherwise, and I don’t think it’s too far of a stretch to say Americans are generally unhealthy, at least that’s what I see when I’m out-and-about, which admittedly I haven’t been in some weeks.
Therefore, if Americans, on average, need more medical resources available to them when they get ill, or injured, or whatever, then just how long is the healthcare system going to hold up when we have a raging epidemic ripping through the nation with a peak that’s weeks if not months from now?
Said differently, the US healthcare system is already handicapped by a more generally unhealthy patient, so we’re already behind the curve as far as being able to deal with coronavirus.
Now, mix in healthcare worker attrition, be it brought on by sickness, quarantine, death, mental breakdown, walking away, or myriad reasons.
In other words, we’re already off to a bad start, but what makes matters worse is that between a healthcare system that can’t handle the developing crisis anyway to a healthcare system that is uber-expensive, financially complex and the direct result of many ruined lives, now is the perfect time for the federal government to swoop in and nationalize the entire healthcare industry in the US.
Not to worry about the elite private medical care stuff – it’s a buddy-buddy system in the United States, so contracts will be friendly and exceptions will be made!
For everybody else, well, unless you can afford the elite private medical care stuff, then just hope you don’t die in the waiting room.
This is the week the bad data starts rolling in!
We get a bunch of data releases this week, and on Friday, we get the March 2020 Employment Situation Report, commonly called the jobs report.
Needless to say, the collapse of healthcare is being met with the stark reality of economic collapse, and we’ll get the sour taste of that in the jobs report.
No matter what happens this week, there are no good fundamentals for the stock market:
I’d be looking for the market to rollover here, but then again, I’m not a market rigger on the inside, so I wouldn’t know what they will attempt.
The VIX is primed for a break-out or a break-down:
If bad news is bad news again, we could see volatility kick-in as market participants sell last week’s ferocious rally.
That would give the market riggers the narrative needed to cover of the flight-to-safety into the US bond market:
Naturally, of course, with so many Treasury’s being whipped-up so Trump can give everybody in America a unicorn and a rainbow, the increased selling would push interest rates up, not down, but we live in a world where markets are not natural, so enjoy the unicorn and rainbow, and the ultra-low interest rates.
That is, until the bond market blows-up.
And to think – since I never saw Trump’s celebrity cooking show, or those other shows he was on, and I never really new how good of an “actor” he was as in 2016 I was only really seeing him for the first time, so yeah, I actually believed Trump in 2016 when he said he was going to make government smaller and do all of the pro-liberty things he said he would do.
Geez, what an idiot I was for thinking there was hope for our totally evil and corrupt political system in the US.
But I digress.
Enjoy the relatively strong dollar while you can:
Whether the value of the dollar rises or falls is moot.
It’s moot because there have been too many dollars printed, and now we’re all having to deal with a global supply shock, meaning there are too many dollars chasing fewer and fewer goods, which is exactly why the dollar might be strengthening, but the cost of goods is rising at the same time.
This, in part, is the reason they want people invested in financial products generally, and in the US stock market and bond market specifically.
I’ve been saying for some time, there’s only so much crude oil that can be stored:
Personally, my family has used less than a gallon of gasoline in the last 2.5 weeks.
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Copper is much easier to store than crude oil:
Which is why I think copper will be stacked as a hedge as the world’s reserve currency hyper-inflates away into the dustbin of fiat currency history.
Platinum may be showing signs that the flight to safety bid is on:
The chartists out there, however, are looking at platinum’s death cross and looking for a rollover.
I’m sure people are out there saying that palladium is ‘consolidating’ around its 50-day moving average:
I’m just not so sure we’re at the point of being able to use charts again.
The paper gold-to-silver ratio remains nailed-down to 115:
I think it’s silver that closes the gap, not gold, but even if the gap were somehow to widen from here, good luck trying to find any physical silver anywhere near that paper price.
Gold has been bid, will remain bid, and right now gold’s price on paper is around the $1650 mark:
If this global pandemic is teaching the people one thing, it’s teaching people the importance of being prepared, and if being prepared also means being prepared financially, it’s safe to say that some will learn the truth about what it means to be financially prepared.
Translation: Even after this pandemic peaks and a sense of “normalcy” begins to return, gold (and silver) will still be bid as people look to better financially prepare themselves for the future.
And then there was silver:
Funny.
Bottom line as we find ourselves here these beautiful last days of March?
This looks to be the week that the US healthcare system collapses.
I think will people finally come to terms with this grim reality.
Additionally, they’ll be hit with bad news on the economy.
The riggers move markets, but can’t shape reality.
Once reality kicks-in, the real panic begins.
The panic will spill into the streets.
Google Et. Al will try to censor.
People must try harder.
Adapt to this new.
Brutal reality.
Adapt or?
Adapt!
Only.
Yes.
Stack accordingly…
– Half Dollar


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Hungarian Parliament passes bill that gives PM Orban unlimited power & proclaims

– State of emergency w/o time limit – Rule by decree – Parliament suspended – No elections – Spreading fake @ @ @ @ @ to 5 yrs in prison – Leaving quarantine : up to 8 yrs in prison @ @ @ @ @ — Hungary ’ s parliament on Monday approved a bill giving Prime Minister Viktor Orban @ @ @ @ @ during the coronavirus pandemic , without setting an end date for their expiration .
The @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Fidesz party and other government supporters by 137 votes in favor to 53 @ @ @ @ @ votes to pass

– State of emergency w/o time limit
– Rule by decree
– Parliament suspended
– No elections
– Spreading fake news + rumors: up to 5 yrs in prison
– Leaving quarantine: up to 8 yrs in prison
#COVID19
Hungarian Parliament passes bill that gives PM Orbán unlimited power & proclaims: – State of emergency w/o time limit
– Rule by decree
– Parliament suspended
– No elections
– Spreading fake news + rumors: up to 5 yrs in prison
– Leaving quarantine: up to 8 yrs in prison#COVID19 pic.twitter.com/5ScZCbF4yv — Balazs Csekö (@balazscseko) March 30, 2020
Hungary approves extra government powers, with no end date
BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungary’s parliament on Monday approved a bill giving Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government extraordinary powers during the coronavirus pandemic, without setting an end date for their expiration.
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The bill was approved by Orban’s Fidesz party and other government supporters by 137 votes in favor to 53 against. It needed 133 votes to pass
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations)… What’s Going On?

So I ’ ve been looking at CLOs ( Collateralized Loan Obligations ) recently and I ’ ve got to say… This stuff sounds like a “ largest bag of odorous excrement ” to quote Jeremy Irons .
If you ’ re not familiar with CLOs you should read this great article on that goes into a fair amount fo detail : www.naic.org/capital_markets_archive/primer_180821.pdf From my point of view , it ’ s the CDOs of 2008 , except , instead of mortgages , it ’ s corporate debt .
Where does this come back to bite us ?
How exposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market ?
Apparently , early 2019 estimations put the CLO exposure at $ 1.4T worldwide .
However , recent independent examinations put the market at $ 1.8T in the U.S. alone .
From what I understand , corporations that are too risky or too crappy to get a regular investment-grade loan , or even perhaps a junk loan , are still given loans ( called leverage loans ) , with extremely high-interest rates .
However , no lender , not even with high-interest payments , wants to hold on to this stuff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them together into SPVs called CLOs , and sell them off .
Now , who owns them is also a bit of confusion to me but if anyone on here can answer the following questions that would be great .
1 ) How to track them/ Where to find more information on what ’ s inside 2 ) How exposed are the banks ( re-packaging side )

by Potstick3rs
So I’ve been looking at CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) recently and I’ve got to say… This stuff sounds like a “largest bag of odorous excrement” to quote Jeremy Irons. If you’re not familiar with CLOs you should read this great article on that goes into a fair amount fo detail: www.naic.org/capital_markets_archive/primer_180821.pdf
From my point of view, it’s the CDOs of 2008, except, instead of mortgages, it’s corporate debt. Where does this come back to bite us? How exposed are the banks? How big is the market? Apparently, early 2019 estimations put the CLO exposure at $1.4T worldwide. However, recent independent examinations put the market at $1.8T in the U.S. alone. From what I understand, corporations that are too risky or too crappy to get a regular investment-grade loan, or even perhaps a junk loan, are still given loans (called leverage loans), with extremely high-interest rates. However, no lender, not even with high-interest payments, wants to hold on to this stuff. So they package a bunch of them together into SPVs called CLOs, and sell them off. Now, who owns them is also a bit of confusion to me but if anyone on here can answer the following questions that would be great.

1) How to track them/ Where to find more information on what’s inside
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2) How exposed are the banks (re-packaging side)
3) Who is exposed?

recent article/ independent examinations: www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2019/09/22/leveraged-loans-and-collateralized-loan-obligations-are-riskier-than-many-want-to-admit/#ce877ea6602b


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--First Amazon Warehouses now Whole Foods Employees Are Staging a Nationwide ‘Sick-Out’

Workers say they will strike Tuesday because the Amazon subsidiary has failed to prioritize their safety during a period of @ @ @ @ @ employees are planning to strike on Tuesday to protest the lack of protections offered to @ @ @ @ @ first national collective action led by workers at the company since it was founded in @ @ @ @ @ , Whole Foods employees will call in sick to demand paid leave for all workers @ @ @ @ @ during the crisis , free coronavirus testing for all employees , and hazard pay of @ @ @ @ @ for employees who show up to work during the pandemic .
“ COVID-19 is a @ @ @ @ @ safety of our workforce and customers , ” Whole Worker , the national worker group @ @ @ @ @ sick out ” wrote in a statement .
“ We can not wait for politicians @ @ @ @ @ own management to step in to protect us .
”

Workers say they will strike Tuesday because the Amazon subsidiary has failed to prioritize their safety during a period of record sales.
Whole Foods employees are planning to strike on Tuesday to protest the lack of protections offered to workers during the coronavirus pandemic—the first national collective action led by workers at the company since it was founded in 1980.
On March 31, Whole Foods employees will call in sick to demand paid leave for all workers who stay home or self-quarantine during the crisis, free coronavirus testing for all employees, and hazard pay of double the current hourly wage for employees who show up to work during the pandemic.
“COVID-19 is a very real threat to the safety of our workforce and customers,” Whole Worker, the national worker group that is organizing the “sick out” wrote in a statement. “We cannot wait for politicians, institutions, or our own management to step in to protect us.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--US, Russia agree to oil market talks

US, Russia agree to oil market talks

So we ’ ve got a more a more official move towards a possible deal or cooperation in the oil @ @ @ @ @ early and it ’ s tough tough to say if anything will come of it @ @ @ @ @ Putin is stepping in here on the side of a potential deal bodes well .
@ @ @ @ @ speculated that half of the reason that Russia nixed the prior deal in the first @ @ @ @ @ sanctions , so that ’ s something that might come up again .
These are @ @ @ @ @ another big day down for oil , but hopefully this is a beginning of a @ @ @ @ @ production until the worst of the virus passes .
I think it ’ s unlikely @ @ @ @ @ balance here but the chances of avoid production hikes and getting some cuts seem to @ @ @ @ @ they were after the last OPEC+ deal fell apart .

Article: www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-trump/u-s-russia-agree-to-oil-market-talks-as-trump-calls-price-war-crazy-idUSKBN21H216
So we’ve got a more a more official move towards a possible deal or cooperation in the oil markets. Again this is early and it’s tough tough to say if anything will come of it, but the fact that Putin is stepping in here on the side of a potential deal bodes well. It’s also been speculated that half of the reason that Russia nixed the prior deal in the first place was because of US sanctions, so that’s something that might come up again.
These are slow steps and today was another big day down for oil, but hopefully this is a beginning of a new deal to help cut production until the worst of the virus passes.
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I think it’s unlikely the market ends up totally balance here but the chances of avoid production hikes and getting some cuts seem to be a bit better than they were after the last OPEC+ deal fell apart.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--About 50% of canadians of the brink of insolvency…25% already unable to meet dept obligations

Forty-nine per cent of Canadians believe they are teetering on the brink of insolvency , according to the latest MNP Consumer Debt Index published Monday .
We were already worried about the debt levels of Canadians and the situation has gotten worse .
Since December , Canadians have become more worried about their consumer debt than ever before .
Almost half ( 46 per cent ) are worried , according to data compiled by Ipsos on behalf of MNP Ltd. earlier this month .
That is a 10-point jump since December and the highest level recorded since the insolvency firm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of those surveyed said they are $ 200 or less away from not being able to pay their monthly bills .
This number includes the 25 per cent who say they are already unable to meet their debt obligations .
As more households lose their income , anxieties are only going to mount .
Thirty-four per cent surveyed said they were worried about job security .
This fear is very real as the COVID-19 pandemic has many losing their income overnight .
While delinquencies in the past have been low , we know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little wiggle in household budgets for this sort of major income disruption .
And my fear is it ’ s only going to get worse .
“ Our results underscore how vulnerable Canadian households are to income interruption .
Over the next few months we ’ ll likely see an unfolding of two crises : the global pandemic and the bursting of the Canadian consumer debt bubble , ” said MNP President Grant Bazian in a release .

Forty-nine per cent of Canadians believe they are teetering on the brink of insolvency, according to the latest MNP Consumer Debt Index published Monday.
We were already worried about the debt levels of Canadians and the situation has gotten worse. Since December, Canadians have become more worried about their consumer debt than ever before. Almost half (46 per cent) are worried, according to data compiled by Ipsos on behalf of MNP Ltd. earlier this month. That is a 10-point jump since December and the highest level recorded since the insolvency firm began tracking in 2017.
About half of those surveyed said they are $200 or less away from not being able to pay their monthly bills. This number includes the 25 per cent who say they are already unable to meet their debt obligations. As more households lose their income, anxieties are only going to mount. Thirty-four per cent surveyed said they were worried about job security.
This fear is very real as the COVID-19 pandemic has many losing their income overnight. While delinquencies in the past have been low, we know some Canadians are living paycheque-to-paycheque, with little wiggle in household budgets for this sort of major income disruption.
And my fear is it’s only going to get worse.
“Our results underscore how vulnerable Canadian households are to income interruption. Over the next few months we’ll likely see an unfolding of two crises: the global pandemic and the bursting of the Canadian consumer debt bubble,” said MNP President Grant Bazian in a release.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--Is this a dead-cat bounce or the bottom investors have been waiting for? Dow Jones up to 20% in the

Is this a dead-cat bounce or the bottom investors have been waiting for? Dow Jones up to 20% in the last 20 days yet economic uncertainty are doubled prior peak

Global stocks are edging lower , and oil prices have plunged to 17-year lows at the start of another week set to be dominated by the coronavirus pandemic .
But U.S. stocks rallied on Monday .
The investor optimism came despite President Trump extending the U.S. lockdown to April 30 and public health officials warning that the American death toll could be between 100,000 and 200,000 with cases in the millions .
UBS says : Equities remain the most ‘ pessimistic ’ across asset classes ( pricing global growth at 0.3 % ) , followed by commodities ( 0.7 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both 0.9 % ) .
At 3 % implied growth , cyclical currencies send the most optimistic signal .
Nevertheless , equity market bottom may yet to come However , economic uncertainty continues to skyrocket & is now more than double prior peak as you can see here twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1244585147099381761/photo/1 Do you think markets will continue to rise ?
Will VIX Index decrease in the following days ?
What asset classes are you and regions are you investing ?
And What platforms are you using for these investment ?
What I am using now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investor.vanguard.com/ ) , for alternative funds & portfolios Daedalus ( daedalus.investments ) and for shares & options Robinhood ( robinhood.com ) .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Davidkingq123
Global stocks are edging lower, and oil prices have plunged to 17-year lows at the start of another week set to be dominated by the coronavirus pandemic. But U.S. stocks rallied on Monday. The investor optimism came despite President Trump extending the U.S. lockdown to April 30 and public health officials warning that the American death toll could be between 100,000 and 200,000 with cases in the millions.
UBS says: Equities remain the most ‘pessimistic’ across asset classes (pricing global growth at 0.3%), followed by commodities (0.7%), rates and credit markets (both 0.9%). At 3% implied growth, cyclical currencies send the most optimistic signal. Nevertheless, equity market bottom may yet to come
However, economic uncertainty continues to skyrocket & is now more than double prior peak as you can see here twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1244585147099381761/photo/1
Economic uncertainty continues to skyrocket & is now more than double prior peak @business pic.twitter.com/H7JcLiAoYc — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 30, 2020
Today’s closing market data (from Reuters)
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Stocks
Do you think markets will continue to rise? Will VIX Index decrease in the following days?
What asset classes are you and regions are you investing? And What platforms are you using for these investment? What I am using now: ETFs I am using Vanguard (investor.vanguard.com/), for alternative funds & portfolios Daedalus (daedalus.investments) and for shares & options Robinhood (robinhood.com).
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-30--NYFed develops Weekly Economic Index – shows worse decline than 2008

To compute our index , we extract the first principle component from these seven time series , using the sample from January 2008 to present .
We scale our index to four-quarter GDP growth , so a reading of 2 percent in a given week means that if the week ’ s conditions persisted for an entire quarter , we would expect , on average , 2 percent growth relative to a year previous .
The chart below plots the index based on data through March 21 , 2020 .
The trough of the Great Recession is clearly visible , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Developments in the past week saw the index fall to a level unseen since 2008 .
In the interim , fluctuations have been smaller , but correspond well to the paths of important macroeconomic aggregates .
The top left panel of the following chart plots the index against the twelve-month percentage change in industrial production ( IP ) .
The index tracks IP growth very closely .
The top right and bottom left panels do the same for capacity utilization ( CU ) and the ISM manufacturing index .
Finally , we plot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that despite the noise inherent in the raw , high-frequency data , combining it to construct an index , as we do , provides an informative signal of real economic activity .
Our index is also quite robust to changes in the way it is constructed .
Subtracting or adding individual series has little effect on the overall path ; the same is true for estimating the weights on each series using only more recent data .
The top left panel of the chart below compares our baseline index to one without fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to one without consumer sentiment , while the bottom left adds data on mortgage applications for purchase .
Clearly , the common signal is not driven by the precise choice of series .
The bottom right panel plots our baseline against a series computed with weights estimated using only data from 2015 onward , showing that the relationship between these series has been fairly constant during and after the Great Recession .

To compute our index, we extract the first principle component from these seven time series, using the sample from January 2008 to present. We scale our index to four-quarter GDP growth, so a reading of 2 percent in a given week means that if the week’s conditions persisted for an entire quarter, we would expect, on average, 2 percent growth relative to a year previous. The chart below plots the index based on data through March 21, 2020. The trough of the Great Recession is clearly visible, as well as the following recovery. Developments in the past week saw the index fall to a level unseen since 2008.
In the interim, fluctuations have been smaller, but correspond well to the paths of important macroeconomic aggregates. The top left panel of the following chart plots the index against the twelve-month percentage change in industrial production (IP). The index tracks IP growth very closely. The top right and bottom left panels do the same for capacity utilization (CU) and the ISM manufacturing index. Finally, we plot four-quarter GDP growth. It is clear that despite the noise inherent in the raw, high-frequency data, combining it to construct an index, as we do, provides an informative signal of real economic activity.
Our index is also quite robust to changes in the way it is constructed. Subtracting or adding individual series has little effect on the overall path; the same is true for estimating the weights on each series using only more recent data. The top left panel of the chart below compares our baseline index to one without fuel sales, and the top right panel to one without consumer sentiment, while the bottom left adds data on mortgage applications for purchase. Clearly, the common signal is not driven by the precise choice of series. The bottom right panel plots our baseline against a series computed with weights estimated using only data from 2015 onward, showing that the relationship between these series has been fairly constant during and after the Great Recession.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--The Crisis is Escalating; Coronavirus Induced Collapse Picks Up Speed with John Rubino

John Rubino returns… It seems like this crisis has been going on forever now .
To think that just a @ @ @ @ @ was relatively normal .
And now , the economy has been stopped dead in its @ @ @ @ @ all sitting home wondering when it will be over .
But the worst of the @ @ @ @ @ even hit us .
The government is busy with helicopter and we ’ re about @ @ @ @ @ .
What will this mean for gold , the Dollar and fiat currencies in general @ @ @ @ @ , Joe Biden was merely a placeholder candidate who ’ s replacement appears , for @ @ @ @ @ Governor Andy Cuomo .
Just according to the script .
We ’ ll have to @ @ @ @ @ global reset will take place .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Financial Survival Network
John Rubino returns… It seems like this crisis has been going on forever now. To think that just a few short weeks ago everything was relatively normal. And now, the economy has been stopped dead in its tracks and we’re all sitting home wondering when it will be over. But the worst of the economic turmoil hasn’t even hit us. The government is busy with helicopter and we’re about to see the first installment. What will this mean for gold, the Dollar and fiat currencies in general? And as we stated, Joe Biden was merely a placeholder candidate who’s replacement appears, for now, to be NY Governor Andy Cuomo. Just according to the script. We’ll have to see when the much anticipated global reset will take place.
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Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Looting, Riots & Civil Unrest Are Coming To The US, Will Be Much Worse Than Asia Or Europe

( by Half Dollar ) The riots are coming .
It ’ s par for the economic collapse course .
Last week we got some “ reports ” of riots ( protests ? )
coming out of China : This week , civil unrest is taking place in Italy , and to think , the United States is just a little bit behind Italy .
In Italy , however , with a more or less disarmed population , the riots have so far have been without major violence , or at least that ’ s what can be gleaned with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say , the Italians are talking about snatching a bag from somebody walking home from the grocery store , but it ’ s not like the victim is stabbed and left to bleed to death , or worse : The victims in Italy basically lose their groceries .
It ’ s unlikely the bag snatching in the US will go over as smoothly as it has in Italy , for reasons we ’ ll get to in a moment .
Curiously , the rioting ( looting ? )
( forced redistribution ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ apparently coordinated in Italy , with some 20 people descending on a store to basically load up shopping carts with groceries and then attempt to leave without paying : I ’ ve personally witnessed a flash mob style loot of an Apple store at a mall not too long ago .
Basically , about six inner-city looking teens , who very well could have been adults , ran into the Apple store , started grabbing Macbooks , iPhones , Ipads and those kinds of items , and ran out after only a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and descend on the supermarkets ?
Hungry people are desperate people , and desperate people do unpredictable things .
We can already see stores preparing for civil unrest all across the USA .
And here ’ s the question : Just how long are those sheets of plywood going to fend off rioters and looters ?
If those sheets of plywood don ’ t feel the burn of a Molotov Cocktail or the chop of an axe , the looters and rioters will probably take the plywood too !
Here ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the riots and the looting will be worse in America ?
For several reasons , in no particular order of importance : • Overworked , under-staffed , sick and quarantined police , law enforcement and US ‘ military ’ forces .
• No shared sense of community or country .
• An “ oppressed ” class ( a.k.a .
the urban poor ) that has no problem offering up some “ social justice ” to big corporations .
• An ‘ entitlement ” class that thinks the government , businesses and “ rich @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are just a few examples .
There are more .
Here ’ s the key takeaway , and I ’ ll offer it as a reminder : There ’ s nothing scarier than somebody who has nothing left to lose .

(by Half Dollar) The riots are coming.
It’s par for the economic collapse course.
Last week we got some “reports” of riots (protests?) coming out of China:
Here is another view of Hubei residents flipping over a Jiangxi police van. What's nice about this view is that it clearly shows the Hubei police simply watching, if not helping, the Hubei civilians destroy Jiangxi police vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ueVKHbGxB5 — Things China Doesn't Want You To Know (@TruthAbtChina) March 27, 2020
This week, civil unrest is taking place in Italy, and to think, the United States is just a little bit behind Italy.
In Italy, however, with a more or less disarmed population, the riots have so far have been without major violence, or at least that’s what can be gleaned with a minimal internet search.
That is to say, the Italians are talking about snatching a bag from somebody walking home from the grocery store, but it’s not like the victim is stabbed and left to bleed to death, or worse:
#Bread and food riots in South Italy! In #Naples and #Palermo, where countless unemployed people live, supermarkets are being protected by police. The shelves are swept empty, customers carry home heavy shopping bags… that are snatched openly in the street.#coronavirus #Italy pic.twitter.com/MXA7dsPvwc — peter patti (@peterpatti) March 28, 2020
The victims in Italy basically lose their groceries.
It’s unlikely the bag snatching in the US will go over as smoothly as it has in Italy, for reasons we’ll get to in a moment.
Curiously, the rioting (looting?) (forced redistribution?) (theft?) is also apparently coordinated in Italy, with some 20 people descending on a store to basically load up shopping carts with groceries and then attempt to leave without paying:
🇮🇹 Ayer se produjo un incidente en Palermo que ha hecho saltar las alarmas en el país. Una veintena de personas trató de sacar varios carros llenos de productos de un supermercado Lidl negándose a pagar. "Basta de estar en casa, no tenemos dinero para pagar, tenemos que comer". pic.twitter.com/bS2f0I1Fv3 — Descifrando la Guerra (@descifraguerra) March 28, 2020
I’ve personally witnessed a flash mob style loot of an Apple store at a mall not too long ago.
Basically, about six inner-city looking teens, who very well could have been adults, ran into the Apple store, started grabbing Macbooks, iPhones, Ipads and those kinds of items, and ran out after only a few seconds.
But when people get hungry and descend on the supermarkets?
Watch out!
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Hungry people are desperate people, and desperate people do unpredictable things.
We can already see stores preparing for civil unrest all across the USA.
Here’s New York:
Pausing Luxury | NY SoHo boutiques boarded up as #COVID19 cases surge MORE: t.co/IxojbpzbvY pic.twitter.com/8YzStWFzyQ — RT (@RT_com) March 29, 2020
Here’s Chicago:
The “Magnificent Mile” in Chicago today. It looks like Chile in November. All fancy stores boarded up. Are they afraid of #Covid19 or of something else? @DMatamala pic.twitter.com/Ag2SU2iJ2a — Zingales (@zingales) March 29, 2020
Here’s San Francisco:
San Francisco looks like a town expecting a Hurricane, with storefronts boarded up, and people lining up at stores, while others wander around without any apparent destination or plan, as if propelled by Brownian motion. Everyone is waiting for Hurricane Covid-19 to crest. pic.twitter.com/XseFzhSuts — 🆘 Save Our #SOMA 🆘 (@EsmeAlaki) March 30, 2020
And here’s the question: Just how long are those sheets of plywood going to fend off rioters and looters?
If those sheets of plywood don’t feel the burn of a Molotov Cocktail or the chop of an axe, the looters and rioters will probably take the plywood too!
Here’s the important question: How do we know the riots and the looting will be worse in America?
For several reasons, in no particular order of importance:
Overworked, under-staffed, sick and quarantined police, law enforcement and US ‘military’ forces.
No shared sense of community or country.
Lack of family values and moral principles.
An “oppressed” class (a.k.a. the urban poor) that has no problem offering up some “social justice” to big corporations.
An ‘entitlement” class that thinks the government, businesses and “rich” individuals owe them something.
Guns galore.
Those are just a few examples.
There are more.
Here’s the key takeaway, and I’ll offer it as a reminder: There’s nothing scarier than somebody who has nothing left to lose.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-31--Supply of Gold Craters (Just As Demand Surges)

This week , Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy .
Stories include : Physical gold is getting more difficult to come by , gold jumping to $ 2,000 by 2021 is a reasonable prediction , and Goldman Sachs tells investors to buy gold .
As Switzerland shuts down , gold investors are running into a safe haven supply glut While many countries have experienced some form of shutdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic , Switzerland ’ s case is shaping up to be the most impactful to the gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ processing and storage , Switzerland is one of the most pivotal countries in the world .
These sectors , along with dealership , transportation and mining , have all been affected by the crisis .
The situation has been worsened due to Switzerland bordering with Italy , the nation that has been hit the worst by the virus .
And , according to those in the Swiss bullion industry , investors are having a hard time purchasing physical precious metals .
While Swiss Gold Safe ’ s high-security gold storage facilities have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brokerage side has essentially shut down .
Ludwig Karl , a board member at the company , said that bullion dealers in Switzerland have largely closed up shop due to government restrictions while related firms have minimized their brokerage activities , making it exceedingly difficult for private investors to obtain physical gold .
Although investors tend to opt for the most popular coins , such as the South African Krugerrand or the Canadian Maple Leaf , Seamus Fahy , co-founder of Merrion Vaults , said that market dynamics have shifted to a point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physical gold they can get .
The supply glut comes amid a return of buyers to the gold market , with the metal gaining around 8 % last week and famous investors like Naguib Sawiris and Mark Mobius doubling down on gold and recommending that others follow suit .
Strategist : $ 1,800 by the end of the year and $ 2,000 in 2021 are moderate gold forecasts TD Securities is the latest firm to issue a bullish gold forecast as the precious metals market sheds its losses and returns to the seven-year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
Last week saw gold move up and down as the buying continued , with the metal nearing $ 1,700 during the week and hitting a high of $ 1,640 during Friday ’ s trading session .
According to Bart Melek , TD Securities ’ head of global strategy , all of gold ’ s most powerful drivers were there before the crisis hit , and the metal is likely to continue growing exponentially as the stock market scrambles to find a way to deal with its worst losses since the 2008 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time applying heaps of stimulus to their damaged economies .
Last Monday ’ s announcement by the Federal Reserve that it will provide unlimited liquidity , paired with the Senate ’ s decision to approve a gargantuan $ 2 trillion stimulus bill on Wednesday , should be major tells as to where gold ’ s price is heading .
As evidenced by the second half of 2019 , gold thrives in environments of low or negative rates , and Melek points out that negative rates are likely to become the norm for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broad currency debasement and market movements similar to those exhibited during the 2008 crisis , Melek thinks the path is clear for gold to reach $ 1,800 by year ’ s end and move on to $ 2,000 and above sometime during 2021 .
Melek advised investors not to pay attention to pullbacks while the pandemic is still ongoing , noting that the blow dealt to the already-shaky mining industry should act as additional fuel for gold ’ s gains over the long term .
“ But , any selloff in the near-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the previously discussed macro factors and the fact that some six million oz of annualized mining gold production is shutdown due to COVID-19 measures and logistical issues making physical shipments extremely hard , will likely serve as an additional catalyst moving the price toward $ 1,800 before the yellow metal reaches escape velocity toward a $ 2-handle , ” said Melek .
The time to buy gold is now , says Goldman Sachs Having made several updates to their gold price forecast before the coronavirus outbreak , Goldman Sachs ’ analysts are growing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s prospects as governments begin to deal with the effects of the crisis .
The selloff in the gold market was mostly driven by an overwhelming desire for liquidity , yet fiat currencies are likely to lose their appeal as the Federal Reserve and other central banks usher in a period of ultra-loose monetary policy .
“ We have long argued that gold is the currency of last resort , acting as a hedge against currency debasement when policy makers act to accommodate shocks such as the one being experienced now , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team .
Goldman now expects gold to hit $ 1,800 in the next 12 months as global stimulus begins to recreate similar conditions to those when the metal hit its all-time high .
As the team pointed out , the Fed ’ s announcement that it would unveil quantitative easing in November 2008 acted as the catalyst for the previously-underperforming gold to go on a prolonged uptrend .
Goldman said that gold has responded in accordance over the previous week , posting significant gains as one stimulus after another were announced .
Besides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gains on their own , Goldman ’ s team expects the new policies to bring to light the Fed ’ s ballooning balance sheet and worldwide fiscal deficits , thereby placing both the U.S. dollar and the euro under scrutiny .

From Birch Gold Group
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Physical gold is getting more difficult to come by, gold jumping to $2,000 by 2021 is a reasonable prediction, and Goldman Sachs tells investors to buy gold.
As Switzerland shuts down, gold investors are running into a safe haven supply glut
While many countries have experienced some form of shutdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, Switzerland’s case is shaping up to be the most impactful to the gold market. When it comes to gold processing and storage, Switzerland is one of the most pivotal countries in the world.
These sectors, along with dealership, transportation and mining, have all been affected by the crisis. The situation has been worsened due to Switzerland bordering with Italy, the nation that has been hit the worst by the virus. And, according to those in the Swiss bullion industry, investors are having a hard time purchasing physical precious metals.
While Swiss Gold Safe’s high-security gold storage facilities have been doing well, the firm’s brokerage side has essentially shut down. Ludwig Karl, a board member at the company, said that bullion dealers in Switzerland have largely closed up shop due to government restrictions while related firms have minimized their brokerage activities, making it exceedingly difficult for private investors to obtain physical gold.
Although investors tend to opt for the most popular coins, such as the South African Krugerrand or the Canadian Maple Leaf, Seamus Fahy, co-founder of Merrion Vaults, said that market dynamics have shifted to a point where many buyers will contend with any physical gold they can get. The supply glut comes amid a return of buyers to the gold market, with the metal gaining around 8% last week and famous investors like Naguib Sawiris and Mark Mobius doubling down on gold and recommending that others follow suit.
Strategist: $1,800 by the end of the year and $2,000 in 2021 are moderate gold forecasts
TD Securities is the latest firm to issue a bullish gold forecast as the precious metals market sheds its losses and returns to the seven-year highs seen around the start of the year. Last week saw gold move up and down as the buying continued, with the metal nearing $1,700 during the week and hitting a high of $1,640 during Friday’s trading session.
According to Bart Melek, TD Securities’ head of global strategy, all of gold’s most powerful drivers were there before the crisis hit, and the metal is likely to continue growing exponentially as the stock market scrambles to find a way to deal with its worst losses since the 2008 financial crisis and world governments waste little time applying heaps of stimulus to their damaged economies.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Last Monday’s announcement by the Federal Reserve that it will provide unlimited liquidity, paired with the Senate’s decision to approve a gargantuan $2 trillion stimulus bill on Wednesday, should be major tells as to where gold’s price is heading. As evidenced by the second half of 2019, gold thrives in environments of low or negative rates, and Melek points out that negative rates are likely to become the norm for a long time. Paired with an expected broad currency debasement and market movements similar to those exhibited during the 2008 crisis, Melek thinks the path is clear for gold to reach $1,800 by year’s end and move on to $2,000 and above sometime during 2021.
Melek advised investors not to pay attention to pullbacks while the pandemic is still ongoing, noting that the blow dealt to the already-shaky mining industry should act as additional fuel for gold’s gains over the long term.
“But, any selloff in the near-term should be considered as temporary, as the previously discussed macro factors and the fact that some six million oz of annualized mining gold production is shutdown due to COVID-19 measures and logistical issues making physical shipments extremely hard, will likely serve as an additional catalyst moving the price toward $1,800 before the yellow metal reaches escape velocity toward a $2-handle,” said Melek.
The time to buy gold is now, says Goldman Sachs
Having made several updates to their gold price forecast before the coronavirus outbreak, Goldman Sachs’ analysts are growing even more bullish on the metal’s prospects as governments begin to deal with the effects of the crisis. The selloff in the gold market was mostly driven by an overwhelming desire for liquidity, yet fiat currencies are likely to lose their appeal as the Federal Reserve and other central banks usher in a period of ultra-loose monetary policy.
“We have long argued that gold is the currency of last resort, acting as a hedge against currency debasement when policy makers act to accommodate shocks such as the one being experienced now,” said head analyst Jeffrey Currie and his team.
Goldman now expects gold to hit $1,800 in the next 12 months as global stimulus begins to recreate similar conditions to those when the metal hit its all-time high. As the team pointed out, the Fed’s announcement that it would unveil quantitative easing in November 2008 acted as the catalyst for the previously-underperforming gold to go on a prolonged uptrend.
Goldman said that gold has responded in accordance over the previous week, posting significant gains as one stimulus after another were announced. Besides being a driver of gold’s gains on their own, Goldman’s team expects the new policies to bring to light the Fed’s ballooning balance sheet and worldwide fiscal deficits, thereby placing both the U.S. dollar and the euro under scrutiny.