investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--“Pent-Up Demand” Won’t Save Us from Economic Destruction: Mises

In responding to the coronavirus threat , governments around the world have committed themselves to a series of harmful and largely unnecessary policies which are likely to plunge the world into a prolonged economic depression .
In the UK , the effect of our lockdown has been severe , with thousands of businesses , millions of jobs , and billions in GDP simply wiped out of existence .
The consequences of these outcomes will be profound and , in some cases , fatal .
Yet it is often said that the destruction of our economy and the present misery of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for saving lives .
Conceptualizing the economy as a smoky boardroom filled with men in top hats , many argue that the lockdown is a choice between Lives versus the Economy , and that therefore lives are more important than money—people lost can not be reborn , but money can be remade .
The economy will recover , they claim , and things will once more be as they were .
Such claims are a failure of perspective , born predictably out of a failure to educate the vast majority on simple economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not just recover in some kind of Groundhog Day reset when the lockdown is lifted ; rather , we have every reason to suppose that our current turmoil will be protracted , will likely intensify , and is by no means immune to a total collapse given the huge amounts of public and private debt and fresh-printed currency accruing currently .
In the first instance , it is self-evident that we will never be as rich as we might have been without the lockdown .
Consider Frederic Bastiat ’ s parable of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the window of the baker ’ s shop is hailed for generating business for the glazier , ignoring that the baker had intended to buy a new suit , which will now not be made and added to the sum of wealth .
Since March , a great many individuals and businesses have been subjected to a veritable hailstorm of bricks through loss of income and revenue , continuing overheads on rent and maintenance , the collapse of vital supply chain links , and other such disruptions , while at the same time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produced .
Detractors may argue that the result of this break in production and consumption will be an explosion of pent-up demand—but excepting the great rush back to pubs , restaurants , and hairdressers when the barriers are lifted , it will not fully account for the total sum of demands that would ’ ve been realised if the economy has been left undisrupted , nor is it assured that the closure of many otherwise viable businesses will be answered by the emergence of equally efficient and productive replacement suppliers .
Further , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ false notion that the economy is merely incubated in some kind of suspended animation , as though all the people currently confined to their homes were effectively frozen in time , ready to resume hammering nails or typing emails with a click of the government ’ s magic pocket watch .
But the economy is essentially a living entity , every beat of its heart and wave of its invisible hand the actions we take to foster and sustain it ; and it lives now as an increasingly pitiable creature , shackled , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shutdowns , and thus dwindling rapidly in health .
As with the person who leaves unchecked bodily discomforts to develop into serious medical concerns , the failure to treat the ongoing cardiac arrest of the economy will surely lead to a series of complications which belie any suggestion of a simple economic recovery , or of the conceit that lives and the economy are somehow disconnected , mutually exclusive phenomena .
At least for the period that our basic economic metrics like GDP remain lower than they were , individuals will clearly suffer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is especially true for the poorest and most disadvantaged in our society .
An economy which immediately produces less than it did will inevitably be forced to sacrifice the availability of all kinds of privileges we might once have enjoyed .
Reduced access to suitable facilities for the old , to recreation for the poor , to purpose for the unemployed will make life miserable , in some cases intolerable , leading to increased suicides .
Deficient funding sources for the state will mean rationing of frontline public provisions like welfare and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of air and water quality regulations , meaning greater levels of deprivation and death .
Anyone who thinks that this period , marked by joblessness , bankruptcy , debt accumulation , and collateral deaths will be a simple recovery , in that predictably casual manner with which they say such things , is not really thinking .
The length of the lockdown and its eventually quantifiable consequence on the general economy will ultimately determine the longevity and severity of the suffering we are bound to endure over the coming years .
That suffering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the short to midterm .

via mises
In responding to the coronavirus threat, governments around the world have committed themselves to a series of harmful and largely unnecessary policies which are likely to plunge the world into a prolonged economic depression. In the UK, the effect of our lockdown has been severe, with thousands of businesses, millions of jobs, and billions in GDP simply wiped out of existence. The consequences of these outcomes will be profound and, in some cases, fatal.
Yet it is often said that the destruction of our economy and the present misery of millions is a worthy price to pay for saving lives. Conceptualizing the economy as a smoky boardroom filled with men in top hats, many argue that the lockdown is a choice between Lives versus the Economy, and that therefore lives are more important than money—people lost cannot be reborn, but money can be remade. The economy will recover, they claim, and things will once more be as they were.
Such claims are a failure of perspective, born predictably out of a failure to educate the vast majority on simple economic principles. In reality, the economy will not just recover in some kind of Groundhog Day reset when the lockdown is lifted; rather, we have every reason to suppose that our current turmoil will be protracted, will likely intensify, and is by no means immune to a total collapse given the huge amounts of public and private debt and fresh-printed currency accruing currently.
In the first instance, it is self-evident that we will never be as rich as we might have been without the lockdown. Consider Frederic Bastiat’s parable of the broken window: a brick through the window of the baker’s shop is hailed for generating business for the glazier, ignoring that the baker had intended to buy a new suit, which will now not be made and added to the sum of wealth. Since March, a great many individuals and businesses have been subjected to a veritable hailstorm of bricks through loss of income and revenue, continuing overheads on rent and maintenance, the collapse of vital supply chain links, and other such disruptions, while at the same time neither producing nor demanding that things be produced.
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Detractors may argue that the result of this break in production and consumption will be an explosion of pent-up demand—but excepting the great rush back to pubs, restaurants, and hairdressers when the barriers are lifted, it will not fully account for the total sum of demands that would’ve been realised if the economy has been left undisrupted, nor is it assured that the closure of many otherwise viable businesses will be answered by the emergence of equally efficient and productive replacement suppliers.
Further, this theory of pent-up demand proposes a false notion that the economy is merely incubated in some kind of suspended animation, as though all the people currently confined to their homes were effectively frozen in time, ready to resume hammering nails or typing emails with a click of the government’s magic pocket watch. But the economy is essentially a living entity, every beat of its heart and wave of its invisible hand the actions we take to foster and sustain it; and it lives now as an increasingly pitiable creature, shackled, starved of food and air by government shutdowns, and thus dwindling rapidly in health.
As with the person who leaves unchecked bodily discomforts to develop into serious medical concerns, the failure to treat the ongoing cardiac arrest of the economy will surely lead to a series of complications which belie any suggestion of a simple economic recovery, or of the conceit that lives and the economy are somehow disconnected, mutually exclusive phenomena.
At least for the period that our basic economic metrics like GDP remain lower than they were, individuals will clearly suffer in their quality of life, and this is especially true for the poorest and most disadvantaged in our society. An economy which immediately produces less than it did will inevitably be forced to sacrifice the availability of all kinds of privileges we might once have enjoyed. Reduced access to suitable facilities for the old, to recreation for the poor, to purpose for the unemployed will make life miserable, in some cases intolerable, leading to increased suicides. Deficient funding sources for the state will mean rationing of frontline public provisions like welfare and healthcare, as well as the policing of air and water quality regulations, meaning greater levels of deprivation and death.
Anyone who thinks that this period, marked by joblessness, bankruptcy, debt accumulation, and collateral deaths will be a simple recovery, in that predictably casual manner with which they say such things, is not really thinking. The length of the lockdown and its eventually quantifiable consequence on the general economy will ultimately determine the longevity and severity of the suffering we are bound to endure over the coming years. That suffering will neither be trivial nor necessarily temporary in the short to midterm.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--American cities are burning, there’s a lethal pandemic and we’re in a new Great Depression. There’s

American cities are burning, there’s a lethal pandemic and we’re in a new Great Depression. There’s still one place to go — gold.

American cities are burning , there ’ s a lethal pandemic and we ’ re in a new Great Depression .
Other than that , everything ’ s fine .
People often ask me when things will “ get back to normal.
” Well , the answer could be never ( or at least not for a long time ) .
Germany was not “ normal ” from 1914–54 , for example .
Social disorder is like a virus ; it goes away eventually but not necessarily soon .
Meanwhile , we ’ re now in our third month of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month to go , depending on your locality .
Some states and cities are beginning to reopen , but they ’ re doing it in “ phases , ” so maybe your hair stylist reopened last week and your favorite restaurant will reopen next week .
The lockdown has certainly been painful for many .
Even under the best of circumstances , anxiety levels went up , patience wore thin and tempers flared at trivial things .
Cabin fever is a real disease .
Was it all worth it ?
I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the answer is almost certainly no .
The lockdown did slow the spread of the virus and did save some lives , that ’ s true .
Yet the gains may only be temporary .
“ Flattening the curve ” does not mean reducing total infections and deaths .
It just means stretching them out over a longer period so the hospital system is not overwhelmed .
There were much better solutions for this , including temporary hospitals and sending doctors and nurses from low-infection areas to those areas most in need , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem with the lockdown was that everyone counted the benefits but no one calculated the costs .
Many may have died and still could die from suicide , drug overdoses , alcoholism , domestic violence and other untreated medical conditions like cancer and heart attacks because patients were afraid to go to hospitals for fear of getting the virus .
In short , the lockdown may end up costing more lives than were saved .
That ’ s on top of trillions of dollars of lost wealth and lost economic output .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doctors in charge of the economy .
Next time , it might be a good idea to let a few economic analysts into the room also .
But don ’ t worry , the optimists say .
We ’ ll see a “ V ” -shaped recovery once the lockdowns are fully lifted .
You probably know the theory of a “ V ” -shaped recovery .
The idea is that the economy fell sharply in March and April 2020 but it ’ s ready to bounce back with a record recovery this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one side of the “ V ” and the recovery is the other .
The result is you end up recovering all of your losses and are ready for new growth from the old levels .
You ’ ll hear this a lot , but don ’ t believe it .
Remember “ green shoots ” in 2009 and 2010 ?
They turned out to be brown weeds .
Yes , the economy eventually recovered and the stock market went on to new highs , but it was the weakest recovery in U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost seven years to appear .
Things are much worse now .
Yes , we will hit a bottom this summer .
And yes , a recovery will begin .
But it will be long and hard .
Output may not get back to 2019 levels until 2022 or later .
Unemployment will come down , but it is still expected to be higher than the worst of the 2008 crisis in 2023 .
The bankruptcies are just starting .
We ’ ve seen J .
Crew , J.C. Penney , Neiman Marcus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ file for bankruptcy in recent weeks .
There is a long line of name-brand companies right behind them preparing to go bankrupt also .
Not only will we not have a V-shaped recovery , but it will probably be an “ L ” ( down and then sideways ) .
The 2009–2020 recovery was an “ L ” where the new trend for growth was 2.2 % instead of the post-1980 trend of 3.2 % .
Now the new recovery ( when it begins ) may have output of only 1.9 % or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the one before and debt goes up faster than growth , it ’ s just a matter of time before you go broke — or eventually break out in inflation .
We probably won ’ t see inflation for a while because inflation has a strong psychological component and right now a deflationary mindset prevails .
That may change — it probably will — but we ’ re not there at this point .
Meanwhile , people are looking for “ safe havens ” right now .
Stock and Treasury market behavior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safe haven ” demand as fundamentals .
But what happens when the safe haven doesn ’ t look so safe ?
There ’ s still one place to go — gold .

BY JAMES RICKARDS
American cities are burning, there’s a lethal pandemic and we’re in a new Great Depression.
Other than that, everything’s fine.
People often ask me when things will “get back to normal.” Well, the answer could be never (or at least not for a long time).
Germany was not “normal” from 1914–54, for example. Social disorder is like a virus; it goes away eventually but not necessarily soon.
Meanwhile, we’re now in our third month of a national lockdown, with perhaps another month to go, depending on your locality.
Some states and cities are beginning to reopen, but they’re doing it in “phases,” so maybe your hair stylist reopened last week and your favorite restaurant will reopen next week.
The lockdown has certainly been painful for many. Even under the best of circumstances, anxiety levels went up, patience wore thin and tempers flared at trivial things. Cabin fever is a real disease.
Was it all worth it?
I’ve done a deep dive on this and the answer is almost certainly no.
The lockdown did slow the spread of the virus and did save some lives, that’s true. Yet the gains may only be temporary.
“Flattening the curve” does not mean reducing total infections and deaths. It just means stretching them out over a longer period so the hospital system is not overwhelmed.
There were much better solutions for this, including temporary hospitals and sending doctors and nurses from low-infection areas to those areas most in need, like New York City.
The biggest problem with the lockdown was that everyone counted the benefits but no one calculated the costs.
Many may have died and still could die from suicide, drug overdoses, alcoholism, domestic violence and other untreated medical conditions like cancer and heart attacks because patients were afraid to go to hospitals for fear of getting the virus.
In short, the lockdown may end up costing more lives than were saved.
That’s on top of trillions of dollars of lost wealth and lost economic output. That’s what happens when you put doctors in charge of the economy. Next time, it might be a good idea to let a few economic analysts into the room also.
But don’t worry, the optimists say. We’ll see a “V”-shaped recovery once the lockdowns are fully lifted.
You probably know the theory of a “V”-shaped recovery. The idea is that the economy fell sharply in March and April 2020 but it’s ready to bounce back with a record recovery this summer and fall.
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The crash is one side of the “V” and the recovery is the other. The result is you end up recovering all of your losses and are ready for new growth from the old levels.
You’ll hear this a lot, but don’t believe it.
Remember “green shoots” in 2009 and 2010? They turned out to be brown weeds. Yes, the economy eventually recovered and the stock market went on to new highs, but it was the weakest recovery in U.S. history and those stock market highs took almost seven years to appear.
Things are much worse now.
Yes, we will hit a bottom this summer. And yes, a recovery will begin. But it will be long and hard.
Output may not get back to 2019 levels until 2022 or later. Unemployment will come down, but it is still expected to be higher than the worst of the 2008 crisis in 2023. The bankruptcies are just starting.
We’ve seen J. Crew, J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, Pier 1 Imports and Hertz all file for bankruptcy in recent weeks. There is a long line of name-brand companies right behind them preparing to go bankrupt also.
Not only will we not have a V-shaped recovery, but it will probably be an “L” (down and then sideways).
The 2009–2020 recovery was an “L” where the new trend for growth was 2.2% instead of the post-1980 trend of 3.2%.
Now the new recovery (when it begins) may have output of only 1.9% or less.
When each recovery is weaker than the one before and debt goes up faster than growth, it’s just a matter of time before you go broke — or eventually break out in inflation.
We probably won’t see inflation for a while because inflation has a strong psychological component and right now a deflationary mindset prevails.
That may change — it probably will — but we’re not there at this point.
Meanwhile, people are looking for “safe havens” right now.
Stock and Treasury market behavior can be explained as much by “safe haven” demand as fundamentals. But what happens when the safe haven doesn’t look so safe?
There’s still one place to go — gold.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--A story that has it all…6 Figure Losses…Gains…Bears…Bulls…Tough Lessons

I ’ m writing this story in hopes that it inspires one of you developmentally disabled “ investors ” that true autism can prevail…even if you get knocked out 4 or 5 times .
I also hope you learn from my monumental mistakes .
Here is a picture of my account value from the last 3 years , showing my account blowups : Here are my current positions and my YTD profit/losses by position : Net Deposit/Withdraw ( essentially my money lost by depositing , doesn ’ t account for any appreciation ) : Let me set the scene , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market had crashed because of a little snafu involving the housing market .
An older family friend of mine suggested investing some money .
My mom thought it would be helpful to teach me more about this so she put $ 1000 towards this endeavor .
I invested in some super safe blue chips and didn ’ t really check it .
And so it begins… .
A few years later while in college ( 2012 ish ) I checked in on these stocks and they had appreciated a good bit .
Let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thousand at this point , and I was working during the summer so I started throwing some more money in .
Got into some “ riskier ” names like Apple , AMZN , and even got in on the FB IPO .
I sold AMZN at $ 190 because even then they had no earnings and it had run up quite a bit .
What a great sell looking back !
Now let ’ s flash forward to the 1st account blowup… 1st Account Blowup ( 2012 ish ) : I was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ WSB .
Like many of you I was still sucking on my mom ’ s teet , and I probably could have used some time to crawl back inside my mom and cook a little longer , but that was no longer an option .
I had about $ 10k in my account at this time , so like any true autist I needed to get to $ 100k immediately I kept hearing that Apple was undervalued , so I bought some Apple Calls at the 600 strike price .
The stock had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It seemed easy , it would go back to 700 and I ’ d have 100 bones per call .
I remember calculating it and realizing if it just did that I ’ d have $ 100k .
I was even responsible and went out like 6 months in time .
As expected it stayed undervalued , my calls expired worthless .
Lovely .
And then afterwards when I had no money , and now no Natty Lites , the stock went on a tear and regained the 700 level and more .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ had to sit on the sidelines and think about it .
But like any gambling addict I would eventually come back to play again… I would repeat this process of work in the summer , save up money , blow it on options during the college school year , and finish the year broke .
I would get a little dopamine now and then off of gains , but nothing meaningful .
Obviously each time I promised myself I wouldn ’ t let it happen again , and I ’ d be more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that works.. Now after I graduated and got a job paying some real money I was able to save some up and come back to the slot machine more often and with bigger pockets .
I lived with my parents like the rest of you , and I got a good paying job right out of college as a chemical engineer .
After getting my company match on my 401k and all that responsible stuff , I would take the rest of my paycheck and “ invest ” it .
You know in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sell those for some good ole FD ’ s , which if they paid off I ’ d just bet on something else .
I ’ m not sure how much I threw away in this process .
It ’ s probably safe to say it was in the neighborhood of $ 20k/year for a good 4 years until last year or so .
After just realizing as I write this that I don ’ t even know how much I lost , as much as it pains me to add it up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in how much I deposited and withdrew ( lol ) annually from 2015 on .
It ’ s probably time I accept it .
I ’ ve added this up top .
2nd Account Blowup : Now if you refer to the graph in 2017 you can see a spike in equity…don ’ t worry I didn ’ t hit on a big FD .
This was from an inheritance .
RIP Gam gam .
I got about $ 70k here ( I ’ m not sure why it didn ’ t ring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
At first I invested it responsibly , and then of course I didn ’ t .
I looked back to see how I blew this because I didn ’ t remember .
Basically there are stupid call/puts all over the place in AMZN , AGN , Banks , you name it .
I probably had a lot great “ hunches ” .
To be clear I lost everything and anything I had here .
It felt crappy knowing my immigrant grandma saved up this money to give to me and I had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always thought afterwards if I had just invested it responsibly this young it would prove to be a lot of money down the road .
I also always figured if I just got to $ 100k I ’ d invest it responsibly and turn into Warren Buffet ( pronounced like an all you can eat Buffet ) .
Chasing the next round number is always a game that you ’ re sure to lose .
3rd Account Blowup : Now after this at some point I got a margin account at TDA with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great way to lose money even faster !
In 2018 I dabbled with mini futures contracts but nothing serious .
If you refer to the all time graph I had a mini spike in here as well ( always good for 1 a year ) , but I blew this .
This got blown on more options and like I said small amounts of nasdaq futures .
This is technically the 3rd account blowup .
I did get some money from a family member as a gift and that ’ s what funded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like crap and all that , but the worst was yet to come , looking back in magnitude these didn ’ t compare to what laid ahead .
If you ’ re keeping track of what I lost , I know for sure I lost $ 50k at least of deposits here , so you can add that to the inheritance from above to keep total of just the big one time deposits , not including the bi-weekly paycheck contributions .
3rd Account Blowup TL ; DR : Lost $ 50k from a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4th Account Blowup : We are getting to the good ones…Now in the inheritance I should specify that I received a piece of property .
I wasn ’ t going to be able to maintain it so I sold it in 2019 .
Got about $ 90k out of it , put about $ 70k of that into my brokerage account .
And if you refer to the all time graph you can figure out what happened here .
Did the classic dance , put it in stocks at first , then didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this in Oil Futures .
This was the toughest loss to date .
This was the last of the “ big ” money or assets I knew I ’ d have .
This in my mind was my last chance to make a good chunk of money , then invest it responsibly , and just grow it .
I was a moron .
I never felt lower than when I lost all of this .
It was a relatively slow bleed as well .
I remember the day I had lost it all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winter .
I ordered it and stacked it for 4 hours , just painstakingly blowing my back out on purpose as I felt completely defeated .
I know my girlfriend was like what is wrong with this dude , because I was just completely depressed at this point .
I thought it was all over .
I was sure I ’ d never recover and never amount to anything .
This lasted for a week or two which is a long time in this context and state of mind .
I felt very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely with money .
And after playing with those sums and losing them all I ’ d ever be able to do at this point was deposit a couple bucks from my paycheck , and what ’ s a few hundred or thousand bucks at this point ?
Even if I put that in , I would just try to hit a 100 bagger to get back to what I considered a real amount .
To this day I don ’ t know I ’ ve ever felt lower than I did at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one you hear everyone talk about .
As if trading oil futures completely overleveraged and not knowing a thing about oil could have ended differently… 2020 ( You can refer to the YTD account value chart for this rollercoaster ride ) : At this point I had nothing .
I still had my job and could drop money in from that , but nothing in my mind would compare to the amounts I once had and played with before .
At the end of 2019 as many of you know stonks only went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would crack , but once the nasdaq hit 9k I realized I should just go long until it finally craters , the bear inside me said it would ( that bear has been wrong 100 % of the time roughly .
He ’ s a man bear who likes other man bears , maybe even a man bear pig ) .
I finally realized this and stopped trying to pick a top .
I didn ’ t have any money to play with so I did the sensible thing…I took a $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I figured I ’ d make a ton of money , then just pay it back and play with house money .
Like many of us here figure… .
So I did this and I went long futures .
Naturally , as soon as I did this ( literally within days ) , the market began to crater and I went short , as short as I could go .
I maxed out my account margin with Nasdaq shorts .
Only playing the mini-nasdaq contracts at first .
As you know it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like the first time ever my account was green .
I continued to pyramid shorts and stack em up as it went down and it continued to payoff .
I got to $ 100k and I couldn ’ t believe it .
I remember taking a leak just thinking about it at the market close and I looked back at the screen and my account was to $ 114k already .
It seemed like a dream .
I continued to max out my shorts all the way down to 6600 points on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of $ 370k ish .
I kind of figured we had to rally back somewhat since we were down so much so quick .
However , I continued to try and pick near term tops and tried to short it ( AKA I fought the fed and as you will see , lost ) .
I said if I fell back to $ 300k in value I ’ d exit all positions and just be smart…then I lowered that stop to $ 250k…then $ 200k…then $ 150k…then $ 100k… $ 50k…and finally I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 32k ( on the TDA chart it doesn ’ t always ring up right for some reason with futures ) .
Also , TDA was constantly calling me with margin calls , that was lovely .
Anyways , that felt shitty .
I really started to question my true motives and goals .
I had finally made the money I wanted .
More than enough to be smart with and grow into a nice nest egg , and I pissed it all away .
I did pay of a good deal of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash advance ( probably first person to actually pull this off ) , and bought a toy .
This was my withdrawing of $ 50k for the year , which you can see at the beginning .
From here I continued to stay short .
Inside I think I just wanted to go back to $ 0 and end it .
Put me out of my misery .
Part of me truly wondered if I liked losing it all .
I had always done it .
Maybe I was just getting what I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got a small selloff and my short positions increased my account value to $ 90k .
Now I had this new idea .
There were tons of stocks that were undervalued still as we were rallying .
If I could get portfolio margin I could get 6.6 times buying power of whatever I had in my account .
I could just buy a lot of stocks , and then if the trend flipped again I could short my portfolio to hedge my positions and downside if needed .
However , you had to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TDA to apply for portfolio margin , and then keep it above $ 100k or they ’ d margin call your account .
I managed , via futures , to get my account value to $ 131k .
I immediately applied for portfolio margin .
You have to take a 20 question test on scenarios with different types of options spread ( iron condors , synthetic short , etc. )
.
Even once I reached that value I was dumb enough to hold positions overnight and over weekends and risk going below $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me open this account .
However , I did finally get approved !
If you refer to the YTD chart you will see this started the rebound .
Once approved I bought a ton of stock in the banks near or at the bottoms ( about $ 150k in JPM , $ 400k in WFC ) and bought some XOM ( $ 200k ) , CGC , and TLRY .
I have a small futures position in Gold too as an inflation hedge .
I looked for stocks that were very undervalued and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could lock in these big dividends and then use the dividends to pay back the margin to get equity , assuming they don ’ t cut these dividends .
The dividends at these levels would actually pay for the margin interest nearly entirely .
I added AT & T later on too .
I liked the pot stocks as well since they had gotten hammered big time .
As I write this we got a good jobs report and what do you know , stocks only go up .
My account value is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s all time high ~ $ 370k .
I honestly don ’ t even believe I found a way to claw back again .
I ’ m speechless , and still worried I will end up as I have every other time .
I have about $ 1.2 million in stock positions .
Even with where I am now my positions should pay more than $ 62k/year in dividends .
And I think the stocks can appreciate in value outside of that as well .
I ’ m in a much better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk after getting my cheeks spread 4-5 times .
I don ’ t want to get carried out because I didn ’ t respect the risk .
I know I ’ m in a good place again and I don ’ t want to screw it up this time .
I ’ m getting to a point where I realize I could almost live off the dividends or at least supplement my income to a great deal .
I ’ m definitely not going to be “ guessing ” with futures anymore though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rule in that no futures position can exceed 10 % of my portfolio , and my target is for 5 % positions .
I may even make the 5 % rule a hard rule .
I also have a trend trading system , and I no longer allow myself to trade against the trend , I can only trade with it .
But with this much money and buying power I plan to mainly stick to stocks .
And if attractive dividends pop up I will add them .
Even if attractive companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I know I shouldn ’ t even be allowed to mention dividend investing in this forum .
Screw me right ?
2020 TL ; DR : Cash advanced $ 7k off a credit card .
Grew it to $ 370k with futures .
Ungrew it to $ 30k with futures .
Grew it back to $ 370k with portfolio margin/stocks .
I hope someone out there can read this , and learn from it .
I had some seriously low lows .
Words can not describe how I felt .
Not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ones if they only knew .
Do yourself a favor and use this as your experience .
Don ’ t go through this emotional rollercoaster yourself .
Remember , if you make huge gains , don ’ t be a pig and get slaughtered .
Take your gains for god ’ s sake .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Mister___Pickles
I’m writing this story in hopes that it inspires one of you developmentally disabled “investors” that true autism can prevail…even if you get knocked out 4 or 5 times. I also hope you learn from my monumental mistakes.
Pull up a chair…
Here is a picture of my account value from the last 3 years, showing my account blowups:
YTD account value:
Here are my current positions and my YTD profit/losses by position:
Net Deposit/Withdraw (essentially my money lost by depositing, doesn’t account for any appreciation):
2015: Deposited: $10,300
2016: Deposited: $21,403
2017: Withdrew: $646
2018: Deposited: $49,977
2019: Deposited: $62,497
2020: Withdrew: $49,977
Net: Lost/Deposited: $93,554
Let me set the scene, I was in high school, the market had crashed because of a little snafu involving the housing market. An older family friend of mine suggested investing some money. My mom thought it would be helpful to teach me more about this so she put $1000 towards this endeavor. I invested in some super safe blue chips and didn’t really check it. And so it begins….
A few years later while in college (2012 ish) I checked in on these stocks and they had appreciated a good bit. Let’s say I had a few thousand at this point, and I was working during the summer so I started throwing some more money in. Got into some “riskier” names like Apple, AMZN, and even got in on the FB IPO. I sold AMZN at $190 because even then they had no earnings and it had run up quite a bit. What a great sell looking back! Now let’s flash forward to the 1st account blowup…
1st Account Blowup(2012 ish): I was a college kid who had not yet discovered WSB. Like many of you I was still sucking on my mom’s teet, and I probably could have used some time to crawl back inside my mom and cook a little longer, but that was no longer an option. I had about $10k in my account at this time, so like any true autist I needed to get to $100k immediately
I kept hearing that Apple was undervalued, so I bought some Apple Calls at the 600 strike price. The stock had been at 700 (pre-split). It seemed easy, it would go back to 700 and I’d have 100 bones per call. I remember calculating it and realizing if it just did that I’d have $100k. I was even responsible and went out like 6 months in time.
As expected it stayed undervalued, my calls expired worthless. Lovely. And then afterwards when I had no money, and now no Natty Lites, the stock went on a tear and regained the 700 level and more. I had no income so I just had to sit on the sidelines and think about it. But like any gambling addict I would eventually come back to play again…
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I would repeat this process of work in the summer, save up money, blow it on options during the college school year, and finish the year broke. I would get a little dopamine now and then off of gains, but nothing meaningful. Obviously each time I promised myself I wouldn’t let it happen again, and I’d be more responsible next time. You know how that works..
1st Account Blowup TL;DR: Lost 10k in Apple calls
Now after I graduated and got a job paying some real money I was able to save some up and come back to the slot machine more often and with bigger pockets. I lived with my parents like the rest of you, and I got a good paying job right out of college as a chemical engineer. After getting my company match on my 401k and all that responsible stuff, I would take the rest of my paycheck and “invest” it. You know in safe stuff like stocks and then ultimately sell those for some good ole FD’s, which if they paid off I’d just bet on something else. I’m not sure how much I threw away in this process. It’s probably safe to say it was in the neighborhood of $20k/year for a good 4 years until last year or so. After just realizing as I write this that I don’t even know how much I lost, as much as it pains me to add it up, I am going back and adding in how much I deposited and withdrew (lol) annually from 2015 on. It’s probably time I accept it. I’ve added this up top.
2nd Account Blowup: Now if you refer to the graph in 2017 you can see a spike in equity…don’t worry I didn’t hit on a big FD. This was from an inheritance. RIP Gam gam. I got about $70k here(I’m not sure why it didn’t ring up right in my deposit/withdraw statements). At first I invested it responsibly, and then of course I didn’t. I looked back to see how I blew this because I didn’t remember. Basically there are stupid call/puts all over the place in AMZN, AGN, Banks, you name it. I probably had a lot great “hunches”. To be clear I lost everything and anything I had here. It felt crappy knowing my immigrant grandma saved up this money to give to me and I had made short work of it. I always thought afterwards if I had just invested it responsibly this young it would prove to be a lot of money down the road. I also always figured if I just got to $100k I’d invest it responsibly and turn into Warren Buffet (pronounced like an all you can eat Buffet). Chasing the next round number is always a game that you’re sure to lose.
2nd Account Blowup TL;DR: Lost $70k in inheritance on options
3rd Account Blowup: Now after this at some point I got a margin account at TDA with futures and full options capabilities. A great way to lose money even faster! In 2018 I dabbled with mini futures contracts but nothing serious. If you refer to the all time graph I had a mini spike in here as well (always good for 1 a year), but I blew this. This got blown on more options and like I said small amounts of nasdaq futures. This is technically the 3rd account blowup. I did get some money from a family member as a gift and that’s what funded this particular spree. Yeah I felt like crap and all that, but the worst was yet to come, looking back in magnitude these didn’t compare to what laid ahead. If you’re keeping track of what I lost, I know for sure I lost $50k at least of deposits here, so you can add that to the inheritance from above to keep total of just the big one time deposits, not including the bi-weekly paycheck contributions.
3rd Account Blowup TL;DR: Lost $50k from a gift from a family member in options/futures
4th Account Blowup: We are getting to the good ones…Now in the inheritance I should specify that I received a piece of property. I wasn’t going to be able to maintain it so I sold it in 2019. Got about $90k out of it, put about $70k of that into my brokerage account. And if you refer to the all time graph you can figure out what happened here. Did the classic dance, put it in stocks at first, then didn’t. Ultimately lost all of this in Oil Futures. This was the toughest loss to date. This was the last of the “big” money or assets I knew I’d have. This in my mind was my last chance to make a good chunk of money, then invest it responsibly, and just grow it. I was a moron. I never felt lower than when I lost all of this. It was a relatively slow bleed as well. I remember the day I had lost it all, we needed fire wood for the winter. I ordered it and stacked it for 4 hours, just painstakingly blowing my back out on purpose as I felt completely defeated. I know my girlfriend was like what is wrong with this dude, because I was just completely depressed at this point. I thought it was all over. I was sure I’d never recover and never amount to anything. This lasted for a week or two which is a long time in this context and state of mind. I felt very destabilized. I had identified myself almost entirely with money. And after playing with those sums and losing them all I’d ever be able to do at this point was deposit a couple bucks from my paycheck, and what’s a few hundred or thousand bucks at this point? Even if I put that in, I would just try to hit a 100 bagger to get back to what I considered a real amount. To this day I don’t know I’ve ever felt lower than I did at this very moment. It was the one you hear everyone talk about. As if trading oil futures completely overleveraged and not knowing a thing about oil could have ended differently…
4th Account Blowup TL;DR: Lost $70k in essentially inheritance on Oil futures. Completely devastated.
2020(You can refer to the YTD account value chart for this rollercoaster ride): At this point I had nothing. I still had my job and could drop money in from that, but nothing in my mind would compare to the amounts I once had and played with before. At the end of 2019 as many of you know stonks only went up. I figured at some point it would crack, but once the nasdaq hit 9k I realized I should just go long until it finally craters, the bear inside me said it would(that bear has been wrong 100% of the time roughly. He’s a man bear who likes other man bears, maybe even a man bear pig). I finally realized this and stopped trying to pick a top. I didn’t have any money to play with so I did the sensible thing…I took a $7k cash advance on a credit card, I figured I’d make a ton of money, then just pay it back and play with house money. Like many of us here figure….
So I did this and I went long futures. Naturally, as soon as I did this (literally within days), the market began to crater and I went short, as short as I could go. I maxed out my account margin with Nasdaq shorts. Only playing the mini-nasdaq contracts at first. As you know it fell straight down. For what seemed like the first time ever my account was green. I continued to pyramid shorts and stack em up as it went down and it continued to payoff. I got to $100k and I couldn’t believe it. I remember taking a leak just thinking about it at the market close and I looked back at the screen and my account was to $114k already. It seemed like a dream. I continued to max out my shorts all the way down to 6600 points on the nasdaq futures and hit an account value of $370k ish. I kind of figured we had to rally back somewhat since we were down so much so quick. However, I continued to try and pick near term tops and tried to short it(AKA I fought the fed and as you will see, lost). I said if I fell back to $300k in value I’d exit all positions and just be smart…then I lowered that stop to $250k…then $200k…then $150k…then $100k…$50k…and finally I got margin called hard one day at $32k(on the TDA chart it doesn’t always ring up right for some reason with futures). Also, TDA was constantly calling me with margin calls, that was lovely. Anyways, that felt shitty. I really started to question my true motives and goals. I had finally made the money I wanted. More than enough to be smart with and grow into a nice nest egg, and I pissed it all away. I did pay of a good deal of debt, paid back the credit card cash advance (probably first person to actually pull this off), and bought a toy. This was my withdrawing of $50k for the year, which you can see at the beginning.
From here I continued to stay short. Inside I think I just wanted to go back to $0 and end it. Put me out of my misery. Part of me truly wondered if I liked losing it all. I had always done it. Maybe I was just getting what I wanted every time. During this I got a small selloff and my short positions increased my account value to $90k. Now I had this new idea. There were tons of stocks that were undervalued still as we were rallying. If I could get portfolio margin I could get 6.6 times buying power of whatever I had in my account. I could just buy a lot of stocks, and then if the trend flipped again I could short my portfolio to hedge my positions and downside if needed. However, you had to get to $125k in equity on TDA to apply for portfolio margin, and then keep it above $100k or they’d margin call your account. I managed, via futures, to get my account value to $131k. I immediately applied for portfolio margin. You have to take a 20 question test on scenarios with different types of options spread (iron condors, synthetic short, etc.). Even once I reached that value I was dumb enough to hold positions overnight and over weekends and risk going below $125k where they wouldn’t let me open this account.
However, I did finally get approved! If you refer to the YTD chart you will see this started the rebound. Once approved I bought a ton of stock in the banks near or at the bottoms (about $150k in JPM, $400k in WFC) and bought some XOM ($200k), CGC, and TLRY. I have a small futures position in Gold too as an inflation hedge. I looked for stocks that were very undervalued and had big dividends. I figured I could lock in these big dividends and then use the dividends to pay back the margin to get equity, assuming they don’t cut these dividends. The dividends at these levels would actually pay for the margin interest nearly entirely. I added AT&T later on too. I liked the pot stocks as well since they had gotten hammered big time. As I write this we got a good jobs report and what do you know, stocks only go up. My account value is for the first time back at it’s all time high ~$370k. I honestly don’t even believe I found a way to claw back again. I’m speechless, and still worried I will end up as I have every other time. I have about $1.2 million in stock positions. Even with where I am now my positions should pay more than $62k/year in dividends. And I think the stocks can appreciate in value outside of that as well. I’m in a much better place mentally and I finally respect the risk after getting my cheeks spread 4-5 times. I don’t want to get carried out because I didn’t respect the risk. I know I’m in a good place again and I don’t want to screw it up this time. I’m getting to a point where I realize I could almost live off the dividends or at least supplement my income to a great deal. I’m definitely not going to be “guessing” with futures anymore though, and I’ve put a rule in that no futures position can exceed 10% of my portfolio, and my target is for 5% positions. I may even make the 5% rule a hard rule. I also have a trend trading system, and I no longer allow myself to trade against the trend, I can only trade with it. But with this much money and buying power I plan to mainly stick to stocks. And if attractive dividends pop up I will add them. Even if attractive companies pop up I’ll buy them. I know I shouldn’t even be allowed to mention dividend investing in this forum. Screw me right?
Thanks for listening.
2020 TL;DR: Cash advanced $7k off a credit card. Grew it to $370k with futures. Ungrew it to $30k with futures. Grew it back to $370k with portfolio margin/stocks.
I hope someone out there can read this, and learn from it.
I had some seriously low lows. Words cannot describe how I felt. Not only towards myself, but towards my loved ones if they only knew. Do yourself a favor and use this as your experience. Don’t go through this emotional rollercoaster yourself.
Remember, if you make huge gains, don’t be a pig and get slaughtered. Take your gains for god’s sake.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--$7k into $40k this morning on ZM Puts (Was my last 7k)

Took my last 7k and bought ZM puts at the close yesterday .
200 strike , expiration today , and @ @ @ @ @ Thank you fucking god for that jobs report this morning .
For once , I @ @ @ @ @ Quickly sold the open at $ 2.70 , $ 3.10 and $ 3.38 The puts @ @ @ @ @ $ 1 .
EDIT : Looks like ZM is about to dump hard and I @ @ @ @ @ thousands on the table .
The truth is , I don ’ t care .
@ @ @ @ @ and it went down to $ 1 .
I didn ’ t have to live @ @ @ @ @ all ZM shorts who held on longer EDIT # 2 : Yes , I was @ @ @ @ @ .
Please don ’ t make fun of me EDIT # 3 : Puts I @ @ @ @ @ now trading at $ 0.20

by professordurian
Took my last 7k and bought ZM puts at the close yesterday. 200 strike, expiration today, and paid $0.70 average. Thank you fucking god for that jobs report this morning.
For once, I miraculously sold the HOD. Quickly sold the open at $2.70, $3.10 and $3.38
The puts immediately dropped in value to $1.
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I am back baby
EDIT: Looks like ZM is about to dump hard and I may have left tens of thousands on the table. The truth is, I don’t care. I sold at $3 and it went down to $1. I didn’t have to live through that. Congrats to all ZM shorts who held on longer
EDIT #2: Yes, I was heavily vaccinated as a child. Please don’t make fun of me
EDIT #3: Puts I sold for $3.02 are now trading at $0.20


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--$100k in a month!

$100k in a month!

21 year old child that grew up with little monies .
This money means nothing too me and i will @ @ @ @ @ my family .
Plays have been on paypal , visa , mastercard , spy , @ @ @ @ @ facebook .
Getting a lot of comments about getting out now so heres some numbers @ @ @ @ @ , 27 k in dividend paying stocks 25 k waiting to get withdrawn rest is @ @ @ @ @

by mingomangos
21 year old child that grew up with little monies. This money means nothing too me and i will be buying a house for my family. Plays have been on paypal, visa, mastercard, spy, airlines, box, and facebook.
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Getting a lot of comments about getting out now so heres some numbers for ya 42k already withdrawn, 27 k in dividend paying stocks 25 k waiting to get withdrawn rest is in positions and play money
current positions


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--Boeing YOLO up 7.7x (60k -> 463k)

Boeing YOLO up 7.7x (60k -> 463k)

It ’ s not like I ’ m smart enough to daytrade this so I ’ m here pumping my @ @ @ @ @ unrealised , I will post gain/loss porn in a few weeks time .
edit : @ @ @ @ @ this is nuts even for bitcoin standards , taking a small chunk off .

by bmexgainporntaway
It’s not like I’m smart enough to daytrade this so I’m here pumping my bags instead.
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100% unrealised, I will post gain/loss porn in a few weeks time.
edit: ok 635k NLV now, this is nuts even for bitcoin standards, taking a small chunk off.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is reaching an extreme. Bankrupt Hertz stock now trading above where it w

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is reaching an extreme. Bankrupt Hertz stock now trading above where it was prior to filing for bankruptcy…

• Since filing for bankruptcy in late May , Hertz has surged 825 % .
• That ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ a company that declared it can ’ t meet its debt obligations .
• Hertz @ @ @ @ @ steady drip of positive economic data that points to a recovery from the damage caused @ @ @ @ @ While retail investors on Robinhood loaded up on the stock , billionaire investor Carl Icahn @ @ @ @ @ 70 cents a share , for a loss of more than $ 1.8 billion .

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is reaching an extreme. pic.twitter.com/mb4LVSiX2K — Mike Shell 🛡🇺🇸 (@MikeWShell) June 5, 2020
$HTZ now trading above where it was prior to filing for bankruptcy… pic.twitter.com/R1NY7bYB0h — TeslaCharts (@TESLAcharts) June 5, 2020
Hertz bankruptcy is CANCELLED by robinhood “investors”
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Headline bullet points:
Since filing for bankruptcy in late May, Hertz has surged 825%.
That’s not what investors normally expect for a company that declared it can’t meet its debt obligations.
Hertz has surged higher following a steady drip of positive economic data that points to a recovery from the damage caused by the coronavirus.
While retail investors on Robinhood loaded up on the stock, billionaire investor Carl Icahn liquidated his entire stake at 70 cents a share, for a loss of more than $1.8 billion.
$DXY about to go to the moon? Dollar Bulls will like this chart! pic.twitter.com/djKhWR0CTB — Lord Polemos (@LordPolemos) June 5, 2020
Did wave 5 complete on SP-500? Next week very telling for Market Bulls as this chart shows. Do we get a V or a W? pic.twitter.com/YEkN2RTU3e — Lord Polemos (@LordPolemos) June 5, 2020
New investment process: Has the company filed for Chapter 11? Yes. Best Idea Long. — Andrew Freedman, CFA (@HedgeyeComm) June 5, 2020
We've gone from recession to depression to recovery to euphoria in less than 100 days. — Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) June 5, 2020
Wall Street's favorite valuation measure pic.twitter.com/lGpFNy3V2l — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 5, 2020
At the end of March, Fed-subsidiary Blackrock owned 7.3 million $HTZ shares… t.co/TY1s6DuMw0 pic.twitter.com/NcyIko2Y5S — Rudy Havenstein, The Federal Reserve Is Violence (@RudyHavenstein) June 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--How Many Rabbits Can The Fed Pull Out Of The Hat?

The Federal Reserve has been increasing the supply of dollars at levels not seen in at least 40 years .
@ @ @ @ @ the 2008 financial crisis pales in comparison to today ’ s central bank counterfeiting .
@ @ @ @ @ produce tremendous ongoing problems , the Fed ’ s reckless money-printing is setting in motion @ @ @ @ @ can hardly imagine .
Central planning always fails .
The Fed is certainly not an @ @ @ @ @

The Federal Reserve has been increasing the supply of dollars at levels not seen in at least 40 years. Even the money pump during the 2008 financial crisis pales in comparison to today’s central bank counterfeiting. Just as the lockdowns will produce tremendous ongoing problems, the Fed’s reckless money-printing is setting in motion an economic debacle that one can hardly imagine. Central planning always fails. The Fed is certainly not an exception to the rule.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--Today’s Job report is BS. Many unprocessed unemployment files not taken into account.

$$ Market talk — BLS reported May 16th when survey was underway that 29,965,415 Americans were receiving unemployment insurance but the survey only counted 20,985,000 as unemployed leaving an unexplained gap of 8,980,415.
Including those the unemployment rate stands at 19%. — Gregor Peter (@L0gg0l) June 5, 2020
always read the fine print t.co/dB8wgqOoEq — StockCats (@StockCats) June 5, 2020
Surprise: The BLS Admits Another Phony Jobs Report Last month I stated "This was the most distorted BLS report in history." Given the BLS repeated the same error this month and admitted it, this report is more disturbing.t.co/ceRbXEaHOm — Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) June 5, 2020
Important line in the BLS release: If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in May, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported. t.co/6mWyqgJ9vu — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 5, 2020
In plain English, this means the May unemployment rate is actually 16.3%, not 13.3%, because 4.7 million workers were misclassified as employed, but are really unemployed. — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--The Fall of the American Empire – Economic & Financial Collapse !! ( The economic collapse is worse

The Fall of the American Empire – Economic & Financial Collapse !! ( The economic collapse is worse than the great depression )

The American empire is in crisis .
The economic collapse is worse than the great depression .
We have seen it all these past three months .
The coronavirus deaths , the lockdowns , massive job losses , education disruptions , loneliness , depression .
And then just when we were turning the corner .
Coast to coast protests , unrest , violence , destruction , looting , and chaos .
More than 350 , that ’ s the estimated number of cities in which protests have taken place in America in the last 24 hours .
One thing is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never ever be the same again .
The economic fallout of the lockdowns will reverberate for years to come .
The US GDP is now projected to decline by nearly 53 % in the second quarter .
The US exports hit a 10-year low .
Trade deficit explodes .
The US pension plans warn they will run out of money by 2028 .
1.9 million Americans applied for unemployment last week .
42.6 million have filed jobless claims during the pandemic as extra unemployment benefits expire next month .
Almost twice as many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession .
Since 2010 we created about 22 million jobs .
In the last 11 weeks , we lost 42 million .
The monthly jobs numbers for May are expected to show we ’ ve reached 20 % unemployment , and that ’ s falling particularly hard on minorities .
Fewer than half of black adults are now employed , according to Labor Department data .
Another 700 thousand ( probably 1 Million ) manufacturing jobs lost .
That ’ s what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Each manufacturing jobs supports something like four service-level jobs .
We have lost 380 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 .
So was it worth it ?
And we ’ re not anywhere near done with the bloodletting .
Almost 50 million people have been forcibly unemployed .
Their jobs are GONE .
Their lives are GONE .
They ’ re about to lose everything .
Pillaging and plundering destroy our potential , and after days of this , the rioters may return home to the same .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no taxes and no soup for you because the trucks stopped delivering , Food will be scarce .
Lines are down , so nobody knows where to find any .
Starvation is on the horizon .
The riots have killed what little hope of recovering quickly that may have existed .
The riots are a watershed moment for many ; few will be able to just go back to work and forget what happened/is happening .
The producers in this system have been exposed to the true evil of the eaters .
Their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Why would any continue to participate at this point ?
We ’ ve seen the rubble and trash riot for the past week .
That ’ s bad enough .
But sadly , we ’ re approaching a time when decent , hard-working men who ’ ve had their lives financially and psychologically destroyed will start “ going off.
” There ’ s a horrible scenario waiting to be played out in America .
All due to the greed of a corrupt and morally bankrupt elite .
The world will become a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take away the office space , restaurants , shopping malls , clubs , what do you have left ?
What kind of culture do you have ?
And all the people who used to work in these businesses , what are they to do !
I find what ’ s going on to be very disturbing and shortsighted , ultimately creating a very gray society with no community , a lot of loneliness , and a lot of poverty .
This is how you collapse economic activity , send it into a death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looting in the context of the George Floyd protests for a reason .
The last thing they want the sheeple to know is that the civil unrest was due to financial and economic collapse .
Bad news means more printing !
This is definitely BULLISH for the “ markets.
” Thank god we figured out the key to survival is having a fake stock market Ponzi ; otherwise , all this bad news would be of some negative consequence .
In other words , all we have is a fake “ market ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Banks and hedge funds have been robbing people with this scheme for decades now .
Let ’ s not forget , the REAL LOOTING is happening in the markets right now .
Even if the world doesn ’ t dump the dollar , which it undoubtedly will , cancer that metastasizes out of obscene deficit spending and the inherent moral hazard , will eat a society away all by itself .
It ’ s on display for the whole world to see right now .
The USA is eating itself alive .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And guess what .
The treasury has been looted just like it was in Rome .
They will keep printing and printing until it all breaks .
It ’ s intentional !
I suspect it ’ s to break the system to start from scratch with digital currency and fascism .
FED , Politburo , No discernable difference .
The USA is a total command economy at this point .
USSR 2.0 times 100 kicking off in the streets while “ markets ” move towards All-Time Highs .
In other words , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” with insider traders .
The City of London Banks and hedge funds have been robbing people with this scheme for decades now .
The oligarchy has used it ’ s control of the central bank to dump its stocks and get out .
The last sucker is the dysfunctional government .
The dollar ’ s days are numbered .
Printing toilet paper is no longer enough to paper over cancer , eating the USA alive .
It ’ s the cause of it .
The world is going to finish the job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rightful place in the gutter where it belongs .
The days of the USA parasitizing off the rest of the world are rapidly approaching their end .
A 10 $ , drug-addicted whore has more credibility than the USA at this point .
Mainstream Media has become a fundamental threat to Democracy and is now the number one enemy of the American people .
The 640,000 Iraqi boys and girls slaughtered by some of today ’ s present-day cops never got one protest march .
Cops kill over 1000 Americans each year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ publicity .
Civil Unrest will be exploited to bring in tyranny .
Calling government intervention intended to stop lawlessness , violence , and destruction totalitarianism is an excuse for tyranny .
Things continue to spiral out of control in the U.S. as the myth of policing fails , and anti-civilizational forces move into the power vacuum .
Tyranny already exists in this banana republic .
The Washington Regime and its secret police have been practicing tyranny for quite some time .
When a state uses its state security apparatus to persecute and terrorize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When a state uses its state security apparatus to marginalize & neutralize innocent American civilians , that is tyranny .
When a state uses its state security apparatus to rob and cheats innocent American civilians , that is tyranny .
But , wait until you see martial law go into effect .
All firearms will be outlawed and forcefully confiscated .
Resistors can be executed for failing to produce a weapon that an FBI record states you legally purchased .
If a firearm is discovered that your claim was lost , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quartered in your homes .
You may be kicked out into the street , your daughters , wife , maybe raped .
Curfews will be enforced by deadly assault .
Anyone may be shot if seen out after a certain hour .
The curfew hours are up to the commander of military forces .
Freedom to travel will be curtailed , and tightly constricted .
And last but not least , the Constitution of these United States will be suspended until Martial law is suspended .
It ’ s beyond sad how much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making us hate each other .
And it ’ s a seething hatred .
We ’ re headed for very dark times .
How is it that the untimely death of one man could spark worldwide protests and riots , seemingly overnight ?
How is that any protests regarding the coronavirus lockdown are immediately suppressed , but the police look the other way when the BLM protestors take to the streets ?
Ordinary citizens are given fines for not properly “ social distancing , ” while thousands of protesters gather with no regard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing , and the protesters are encouraged by the Mainstream Media .
You have to be deaf , dumb , and blind to believe this is not orchestrated .
The question is , who is controlling this , and what is the objective !
My theory is that the coronavirus panic is falling apart and the people that orchestrated it that needed a diversion .
The objective seems to be to destroy all small business and their market share going to the big multinationals .
WE ARE WITNESSING A VIOLENT COUP .
IT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The American people are being played .
We US citizens are being set up for the epic collapse of our country .
You can see all of the tumblers starting to line up .
We are being lied to in every aspect of our lives to drive us insane .
We are flying without a functioning dashboard , and we are going to smack into the side of a mountain at max speed .
This is a repeat of the fall of the USSR .
Peak corruption and lies .
I have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but so far nothing .
Any ideas out there ?
Television has conditioned us from birth .
Few ever wake up from this programming .
The mainstream media and ‘ Federal Reserve ’ are the same entity , right ?
They print the money and dominate the flow of information .
They own the United States .
They ’ ve carefully nurtured this atmosphere .
Most Americans are trained like Pavlov ’ s dogs .
We cowardly feed the FED ’ s IRS 26-50 % of our hard-earned income each year , though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must .
The empire is rolling back , regardless of who is president .
The “ uni-power ” period is over and was completely wasted .
There is no agreement in the USA on the policy to deal with this reality .
Some want to use the military and the policies of the last 30 years to extend the empire ’ s life .
That the US will ‘ win , any battles ’ is becoming less and less true every year .
America has always relied heavily on its carrier fleet to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fleet is now a sitting duck for modern missile technology wielded by states like Iran and Venezuela , and certainly Russia and China .
The loss of just one carrier would be a huge , huge loss of face for the US .
It is just a matter of time now that the US will be forced to accommodate a multi-polar world , like it or not .
It ’ s the end of an empire .
Nothing will change until The Fed , and its Monopoly money dies .
You are here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the whole truth , and nothing but the truth .
Americans are mind-controlled slaves in the service of their owners .
Our culture , our inalienable rights , and freedoms are being attacked from every angle .
We just went through a major compliance test and passed with flying colors : house arrest and masks , which are a symbol of fear , oppression , and silence if ever I saw one .
We live in The Truman Show and – like Truman – most of us can ’ t see it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rights and freedom of the INDIVIDUAL , it won ’ t matter what happens to the physical country or the government entity……America will already be gone .
America is an idea , not a geographical location , not a landmass , not a group of people , not a central government , not a currency .
America IS AN IDEA .
America was founded on the principle that men were given unalienable rights by God that were not up for negotiations .
• Freedom to worship as the individual sees fit , freedom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Freedom to bear arms and defend oneself against one ’ s own government if necessary .
• Freedom of privacy and to own property .
That property ownership by the individual was sacred .
• Freedom from illegal search or seizure ; right to privacy .
Regardless of what a majority says or thinks , regardless of what a judge says or thinks .
Those rights are for the individual and can not be taken away without a fight .
Washington , DC , has largely become the worst offender of natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peace .
Each state has its now own constitution .
No need to hang on to the federal one .
The misguided belief that it can be redeemed is what holds us back from applying lessons learned to new ones .
The USA needs to balkanize .
It ’ s the only way we will be free of DC , The Fed , and the Military-Industrial Complex .
America , the US Corp ( 1871 ) is the problem .
It ’ ll be much better once we move to the Constitutional Republic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the District of Columbia – a city within A city within a state – this is the only thing They own – not Us or anything in the states – once they go bankrupt that is all they own – they do not own us or anything else – let them all sink to the bottom along with the all the federal reserve and then return to the US Republic – then start anew .
We have always been slaves—exactly the same .
Money is a grant on other ’ s unwilling working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infinite , they are just empowering themselves with the right to ORDER WHATEVER FROM YOUR AD INFINITUM .
It could be reasonable for a small period to fix the economy , but they are simply looting all they can right now .
This is now TIME Slavery .
Like in the middle ages or in the Pharaohs times but using subterfuges .
With a small caveat .
Your work won ’ t be needed very soon with AI and Robotics , and your very life will be a cost on their spheric “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
You are living in Enemy Territory .
DEBT LAND .
SLAVER LAND .
Collaboration is against your own interest in infinite Slaver Printed Land .
This is not about races , religions , or genders .
It is about having a system that works for all or works AGAINST THE PEOPLE .
This monetary system is OBSOLETE .
It is a basic measure of the value assigned to the “ holder ” of a token granted by ANY MEANS .
He manages to obtain it .
It does not contain intrinsic value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ granted are meaningless .
That is what is happening .
We have to move to a system with a data structure that allows measurement of what is worthy and meaningful by its own properties and real “ intrinsic value.
” KPIs ( Key Point Indicators ) of what is really needed .
We have the technology to provide such data structures in a fair manner layering a proper foundation far from greed .
We could remove prisoner dilemmas and create a win-win system instead of empowering zero-sum psychopaths that endanger the whole system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America , the country was awesome .
The empire is the problem .
America , the empire , is a huge pox on humanity .
The United States of America is a country .
THE UNITED STATES is a corporation , which took over the country in 1871 .
Yes , it needs to fail .
We need to get back to The United States of America and its constitution !
America was doing fine until the Fed took over .

by Amy S.
The American empire is in crisis. The economic collapse is worse than the great depression. We have seen it all these past three months. The coronavirus deaths, the lockdowns, massive job losses, education disruptions, loneliness, depression. And then just when we were turning the corner. Coast to coast protests, unrest, violence, destruction, looting, and chaos. More than 350, that’s the estimated number of cities in which protests have taken place in America in the last 24 hours. One thing is certain, America and the world will never ever be the same again.
The economic fallout of the lockdowns will reverberate for years to come. The US GDP is now projected to decline by nearly 53% in the second quarter. The US exports hit a 10-year low. Trade deficit explodes. The US pension plans warn they will run out of money by 2028. 1.9 million Americans applied for unemployment last week. 42.6 million have filed jobless claims during the pandemic as extra unemployment benefits expire next month. Almost twice as many Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession. Since 2010 we created about 22 million jobs. In the last 11 weeks, we lost 42 million.
The monthly jobs numbers for May are expected to show we’ve reached 20% unemployment, and that’s falling particularly hard on minorities. Fewer than half of black adults are now employed, according to Labor Department data. Another 700 thousand (probably 1 Million) manufacturing jobs lost. That’s what’s going to hurt a lot. Each manufacturing jobs supports something like four service-level jobs. We have lost 380 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19. So was it worth it? And we’re not anywhere near done with the bloodletting.
Almost 50 million people have been forcibly unemployed. Their jobs are GONE. Their lives are GONE. They’re about to lose everything. Pillaging and plundering destroy our potential, and after days of this, the rioters may return home to the same. It is a lousy future. No businesses, no taxes and no soup for you because the trucks stopped delivering, Food will be scarce. Lines are down, so nobody knows where to find any. Starvation is on the horizon. The riots have killed what little hope of recovering quickly that may have existed. The riots are a watershed moment for many; few will be able to just go back to work and forget what happened/is happening. The producers in this system have been exposed to the true evil of the eaters.
Their government failed/continues to fail to protect them. Why would any continue to participate at this point? We’ve seen the rubble and trash riot for the past week. That’s bad enough. But sadly, we’re approaching a time when decent, hard-working men who’ve had their lives financially and psychologically destroyed will start “going off.” There’s a horrible scenario waiting to be played out in America. All due to the greed of a corrupt and morally bankrupt elite. The world will become a very sterile and boring place. You take away the office space, restaurants, shopping malls, clubs, what do you have left? What kind of culture do you have? And all the people who used to work in these businesses, what are they to do! I find what’s going on to be very disturbing and shortsighted, ultimately creating a very gray society with no community, a lot of loneliness, and a lot of poverty.
This is how you collapse economic activity, send it into a death spiral. They put the riots and looting in the context of the George Floyd protests for a reason. The last thing they want the sheeple to know is that the civil unrest was due to financial and economic collapse. Bad news means more printing! This is definitely BULLISH for the “markets.”Thank god we figured out the key to survival is having a fake stock market Ponzi; otherwise, all this bad news would be of some negative consequence. In other words, all we have is a fake “market” with insider traders. City of London Banks and hedge funds have been robbing people with this scheme for decades now.
Let’s not forget, the REAL LOOTING is happening in the markets right now. Even if the world doesn’t dump the dollar, which it undoubtedly will, cancer that metastasizes out of obscene deficit spending and the inherent moral hazard, will eat a society away all by itself. It’s on display for the whole world to see right now. The USA is eating itself alive. We are watching Rome burn in real-time. And guess what. The treasury has been looted just like it was in Rome. They will keep printing and printing until it all breaks. It’s intentional! I suspect it’s to break the system to start from scratch with digital currency and fascism.
FED, Politburo, No discernable difference. The USA is a total command economy at this point. USSR 2.0 times 100 kicking off in the streets while “markets” move towards All-Time Highs. In other words, all we have is a fake “market” with insider traders.
The City of London Banks and hedge funds have been robbing people with this scheme for decades now. The oligarchy has used it’s control of the central bank to dump its stocks and get out. The last sucker is the dysfunctional government. The dollar’s days are numbered. Printing toilet paper is no longer enough to paper over cancer, eating the USA alive. It’s the cause of it. The world is going to finish the job here and put the USA in its rightful place in the gutter where it belongs. The days of the USA parasitizing off the rest of the world are rapidly approaching their end. A 10$, drug-addicted whore has more credibility than the USA at this point. Mainstream Media has become a fundamental threat to Democracy and is now the number one enemy of the American people. The 640,000 Iraqi boys and girls slaughtered by some of today’s present-day cops never got one protest march. Cops kill over 1000 Americans each year.
The Mainstream Media picks who gets the publicity. Civil Unrest will be exploited to bring in tyranny. Calling government intervention intended to stop lawlessness, violence, and destruction totalitarianism is an excuse for tyranny. Things continue to spiral out of control in the U.S. as the myth of policing fails, and anti-civilizational forces move into the power vacuum. Tyranny already exists in this banana republic. The Washington Regime and its secret police have been practicing tyranny for quite some time. When a state uses its state security apparatus to persecute and terrorize innocent American civilians, that is tyranny. When a state uses its state security apparatus to marginalize & neutralize innocent American civilians, that is tyranny. When a state uses its state security apparatus to rob and cheats innocent American civilians, that is tyranny. But, wait until you see martial law go into effect.
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All firearms will be outlawed and forcefully confiscated. Resistors can be executed for failing to produce a weapon that an FBI record states you legally purchased. If a firearm is discovered that your claim was lost, you may be executed. Troops can be quartered in your homes. You may be kicked out into the street, your daughters, wife, maybe raped. Curfews will be enforced by deadly assault. Anyone may be shot if seen out after a certain hour. The curfew hours are up to the commander of military forces. Freedom to travel will be curtailed, and tightly constricted. And last but not least, the Constitution of these United States will be suspended until Martial law is suspended. It’s beyond sad how much The Power That Be have succeeded in making us hate each other. And it’s a seething hatred. We’re headed for very dark times.
How is it that the untimely death of one man could spark worldwide protests and riots, seemingly overnight? How is that any protests regarding the coronavirus lockdown are immediately suppressed, but the police look the other way when the BLM protestors take to the streets? Ordinary citizens are given fines for not properly “social distancing,” while thousands of protesters gather with no regard for social distancing. The police do nothing, and the protesters are encouraged by the Mainstream Media. You have to be deaf, dumb, and blind to believe this is not orchestrated. The question is, who is controlling this, and what is the objective! My theory is that the coronavirus panic is falling apart and the people that orchestrated it that needed a diversion. The objective seems to be to destroy all small business and their market share going to the big multinationals.
WE ARE WITNESSING A VIOLENT COUP. IT HAS BEEN PLANNED AND CAREFULLY STAGED. The American people are being played. We US citizens are being set up for the epic collapse of our country. You can see all of the tumblers starting to line up. We are being lied to in every aspect of our lives to drive us insane. We are flying without a functioning dashboard, and we are going to smack into the side of a mountain at max speed. This is a repeat of the fall of the USSR. Peak corruption and lies. I have been tirelessly searching for a way out, but so far nothing. Any ideas out there? Television has conditioned us from birth. Few ever wake up from this programming. The mainstream media and ‘Federal Reserve’ are the same entity, right? They print the money and dominate the flow of information.
They own the United States. They’ve carefully nurtured this atmosphere. Most Americans are trained like Pavlov’s dogs. We cowardly feed the FED’s IRS 26-50% of our hard-earned income each year, though there is no written law stating we must. The empire is rolling back, regardless of who is president. The “uni-power” period is over and was completely wasted. There is no agreement in the USA on the policy to deal with this reality. Some want to use the military and the policies of the last 30 years to extend the empire’s life.
That the US will ‘win, any battles’ is becoming less and less true every year. America has always relied heavily on its carrier fleet to project power across the globe. That fleet is now a sitting duck for modern missile technology wielded by states like Iran and Venezuela, and certainly Russia and China. The loss of just one carrier would be a huge, huge loss of face for the US. It is just a matter of time now that the US will be forced to accommodate a multi-polar world, like it or not. It’s the end of an empire. Nothing will change until The Fed, and its Monopoly money dies.
You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Americans are mind-controlled slaves in the service of their owners. Our culture, our inalienable rights, and freedoms are being attacked from every angle. We just went through a major compliance test and passed with flying colors: house arrest and masks, which are a symbol of fear, oppression, and silence if ever I saw one. We live in The Truman Show and – like Truman – most of us can’t see it. If America continues to abandon the rights and freedom of the INDIVIDUAL, it won’t matter what happens to the physical country or the government entity……America will already be gone. America is an idea, not a geographical location, not a landmass, not a group of people, not a central government, not a currency. America IS AN IDEA. America was founded on the principle that men were given unalienable rights by God that were not up for negotiations.
Those rights include:
Freedom to worship as the individual sees fit, freedom to assemble, freedom of speech. Freedom to bear arms and defend oneself against one’s own government if necessary. Freedom of privacy and to own property. That property ownership by the individual was sacred. Freedom to travel without state restriction. Freedom from illegal search or seizure; right to privacy. Regardless of what a majority says or thinks, regardless of what a judge says or thinks.
Those rights are for the individual and cannot be taken away without a fight. Washington, DC, has largely become the worst offender of natural rights, free markets, and world peace. Each state has its now own constitution. No need to hang on to the federal one. The misguided belief that it can be redeemed is what holds us back from applying lessons learned to new ones. The USA needs to balkanize. It’s the only way we will be free of DC, The Fed, and the Military-Industrial Complex. America, the US Corp (1871) is the problem. It’ll be much better once we move to the Constitutional Republic. They ( US corporation ) is the District of Columbia – a city within A city within a state – this is the only thing They own – not Us or anything in the states – once they go bankrupt that is all they own – they do not own us or anything else – let them all sink to the bottom along with the all the federal reserve and then return to the US Republic – then start anew.
We have always been slaves—exactly the same. Money is a grant on other’s unwilling working time. When they create it to infinite, they are just empowering themselves with the right to ORDER WHATEVER FROM YOUR AD INFINITUM. It could be reasonable for a small period to fix the economy, but they are simply looting all they can right now. This is now TIME Slavery. Like in the middle ages or in the Pharaohs times but using subterfuges. With a small caveat. Your work won’t be needed very soon with AI and Robotics, and your very life will be a cost on their spheric “Garden.”
THIS IS NOT YOUR WORLD. You are living in Enemy Territory. DEBT LAND. SLAVER LAND. Collaboration is against your own interest in infinite Slaver Printed Land. This is not about races, religions, or genders. It is about having a system that works for all or works AGAINST THE PEOPLE. This monetary system is OBSOLETE. It is a basic measure of the value assigned to the “holder” of a token granted by ANY MEANS. He manages to obtain it. It does not contain intrinsic value when the MEANS in which it is granted are meaningless. That is what is happening. We have to move to a system with a data structure that allows measurement of what is worthy and meaningful by its own properties and real “intrinsic value.” KPIs (Key Point Indicators) of what is really needed. We have the technology to provide such data structures in a fair manner layering a proper foundation far from greed.
We could remove prisoner dilemmas and create a win-win system instead of empowering zero-sum psychopaths that endanger the whole system. But will they allow it? America, the country was awesome. The empire is the problem. America, the empire, is a huge pox on humanity. The United States of America is a country. THE UNITED STATES is a corporation, which took over the country in 1871. Yes, it needs to fail. We need to get back to The United States of America and its constitution! America was doing fine until the Fed took over.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--Civil Unrest Ignites on Schedule

Civil Unrest Ignites on Schedule

George Floyd ’ s death has sparked civil unrest throughout the world .
In Athens , Greece , protestors flung firebombs at the US embassy .
In France , President Macron urged citizens not to compare France with the US as he does not feel police brutality , racism , or government control is an issue there .
French citizens seem to disagree as 2,500 people attended a rally in Lille , 1,800 in Marseille , and 1,200 in Lyon .
Germany , Denmark , Italy , Britain , Brazil , Ireland , Canada , New Zealand , Syria , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surge of protests standing in solidarity with the US .
But the unrest runs even deeper than yet another murder by armed government workers .
After weeks on end of forced isolation , the people are waking up to the control that the government possesses over every area of their lives .
Anger is overtaking fear as thousands are disregarding the CDC ’ s continued pleas to stay at home and avoid crowds .
There is no rule of law .
Governments can and will act in their own self-interests and continue to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unwashed ” who are not worthy of basic human rights .
They can kill us , take away our jobs , our freedoms , and destroy the economy at will .
Is it any wonder that the people have lost confidence in their governments ?
The chaos is cyclically unfolding on schedule .
All confidence in the government has been abandoned due to the draconian measures forced upon the people in such a rash manner that it could not be ignored .

by Martin Armstrong
(picture from Paris protest, credit Michel Euler/AP)
George Floyd’s death has sparked civil unrest throughout the world. In Athens, Greece, protestors flung firebombs at the US embassy. In France, President Macron urged citizens not to compare France with the US as he does not feel police brutality, racism, or government control is an issue there. French citizens seem to disagree as 2,500 people attended a rally in Lille, 1,800 in Marseille, and 1,200 in Lyon. Germany, Denmark, Italy, Britain, Brazil, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand, Syria, and countless other countries are experiencing a surge of protests standing in solidarity with the US. But the unrest runs even deeper than yet another murder by armed government workers.
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After weeks on end of forced isolation, the people are waking up to the control that the government possesses over every area of their lives. Anger is overtaking fear as thousands are disregarding the CDC’s continued pleas to stay at home and avoid crowds. There is no rule of law. Governments can and will act in their own self-interests and continue to view the people as “the great unwashed” who are not worthy of basic human rights. They can kill us, take away our jobs, our freedoms, and destroy the economy at will. Is it any wonder that the people have lost confidence in their governments?
The chaos is cyclically unfolding on schedule. All confidence in the government has been abandoned due to the draconian measures forced upon the people in such a rash manner that it could not be ignored.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--To Make Money, Stop Screwing Around with Stocks

Why do people gamble ?
Everyone knows the games have a negative expectation , meaning you lose money in the long run .
There are two reasons : • You are hoping for a short-term run of luck , or • You are an advantage player I know the basics of counting cards .
I know the theory behind it , and how it is done .
But it takes practice—lots of practice—and I have never had the patience for it .
For $ 20 an hour , it never seemed worth it .
I ’ m not an advantage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ optimistic about getting a short-term run of luck .
I ’ d rather play in the financial markets , which do not have a negative expectation .
Craps , blackjack , roulette , and pretty much everything else are zero-sum games , with an edge to the house .
The financial markets are not a zero-sum game , but there is a house .
Market makers are the house .
And the odds are firmly in their favor .
In stocks , options , and , increasingly , bonds , large electronic market-making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In fact , your orders are so profitable for them that they actually pay to receive them .
This is because your orders often have negative informational value .
This makes it easy for a market-making firm to take the other side of your trade , or profitably transfer the risk somewhere else .
It ’ s funny—trading commissions are now free , but the cost of execution is higher than ever , which people do not appreciate .
Retail investors have responded by trading more than ever… But investing is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and they go up over time .
Bonds pay coupons .
The problem is that people put themselves in situations where it IS a zero-sum game , either by trading frequently or trading in the derivatives markets , which are zero sum .
After paying execution costs , you ’ re back to where you were in the casino .
On The Jared Dillian Show , I ’ ve had several discussions about day trading , which is something you definitely shouldn ’ t be doing .
Maybe it made sense 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of hard to make money in short-term trading when the computers are faster than you , and they are programmed to make money in short-term trading .
The only place you have an edge is the longer term .
That ’ s because… Computers can look out a couple of milliseconds , or a few seconds , or even a few hours—but they can ’ t look 10–20 years into the future .
Only human beings can do that .
If , in 2007 , you saw the first iPhone and said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” you could have bought shares of Apple ( AAPL ) with a time horizon of a decade or more .
The computers can ’ t see beyond the end of the day .
You could have done the same with Chipotle ( CMG ) or Home Depot ( HD ) , or pretty much any stock at the top of the S & P 500 .
This Is How You Beat the House The people I know who have made the most money in the financial markets paid for a financial adviser @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a diversified portfolio of 20 or more stocks that they held for decades , managing risk the whole way .
I do not know anyone who has gotten rich off of a free-trading app like Robinhood , at least on a permanent basis .
Robinhood is not what I would call investing .
It is “ screwing around with stocks.
” I am against anything that turns the financial markets into a giant casino .
I was against zero commissions back when they were announced .
The unintended consequence has been a giant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around with stocks ” to sophisticated investors .
Years ago , Edward Thorp wrote Beat The Dealer about how to beat the game of blackjack—and beat the house .
If you want to beat the house in stocks , then invest , don ’ t trade , because there is a cost to everything you do .
Jared Dillian is an investment strategist at Mauldin Economics and a former head of ETF trading at Lehman Brothers .
Subscribe to his weekly investment newsletter , The 10th Man , and listen to his daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And follow Jared on Twitter @ dailydirtnap .

by Jared Dillian
Why do people gamble? Everyone knows the games have a negative expectation, meaning you lose money in the long run.
There are two reasons:
You are hoping for a short-term run of luck, or You are an advantage player
I know the basics of counting cards. I know the theory behind it, and how it is done. But it takes practice—lots of practice—and I have never had the patience for it. For $20 an hour, it never seemed worth it.
I’m not an advantage player, and I’m not optimistic about getting a short-term run of luck. I’d rather play in the financial markets, which do not have a negative expectation.
Investing Is Not a Zero-Sum Game
Craps, blackjack, roulette, and pretty much everything else are zero-sum games, with an edge to the house. The financial markets are not a zero-sum game, but there is a house. Market makers are the house. And the odds are firmly in their favor.
In stocks, options, and, increasingly, bonds, large electronic market-making firms play the role of the house. In fact, your orders are so profitable for them that they actually pay to receive them.
This is because your orders often have negative informational value. This makes it easy for a market-making firm to take the other side of your trade, or profitably transfer the risk somewhere else.
It’s funny—trading commissions are now free, but the cost of execution is higher than ever, which people do not appreciate.
Retail investors have responded by trading more than ever…
Source: @sentimentrader
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But investing is not a zero-sum game. Stocks pay dividends, and they go up over time. Bonds pay coupons. The problem is that people put themselves in situations where it IS a zero-sum game, either by trading frequently or trading in the derivatives markets, which are zero sum. After paying execution costs, you’re back to where you were in the casino.
On The Jared Dillian Show, I’ve had several discussions about day trading, which is something you definitely shouldn’t be doing. Maybe it made sense 20 years ago, but it’s kind of hard to make money in short-term trading when the computers are faster than you, and they are programmed to make money in short-term trading.
The only place you have an edge is the longer term. That’s because…
Computers Can’t See the Future
Computers can look out a couple of milliseconds, or a few seconds, or even a few hours—but they can’t look 10–20 years into the future. Only human beings can do that.
If, in 2007, you saw the first iPhone and said, “this is the future,” you could have bought shares of Apple (AAPL) with a time horizon of a decade or more. The computers can’t see beyond the end of the day.
You could have done the same with Chipotle (CMG) or Home Depot (HD), or pretty much any stock at the top of the S&P 500.
This Is How You Beat the House
The people I know who have made the most money in the financial markets paid for a financial adviser, paid expensive commissions, and bought a diversified portfolio of 20 or more stocks that they held for decades, managing risk the whole way.
I do not know anyone who has gotten rich off of a free-trading app like Robinhood, at least on a permanent basis. Robinhood is not what I would call investing. It is “screwing around with stocks.”
I am against anything that turns the financial markets into a giant casino. I was against zero commissions back when they were announced. The unintended consequence has been a giant wealth transfer from unsophisticated people “screwing around with stocks” to sophisticated investors.
Years ago, Edward Thorp wrote Beat The Dealer about how to beat the game of blackjack—and beat the house. If you want to beat the house in stocks, then invest, don’t trade, because there is a cost to everything you do.
Jared Dillian is an investment strategist at Mauldin Economics and a former head of ETF trading at Lehman Brothers. Subscribe to his weekly investment newsletter, The 10th Man, and listen to his daily radio program, The Jared Dillian Show. And follow Jared on Twitter @dailydirtnap.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--What’s Behind Market Success Right Now? Tim Wood

Just how much control does the Fed have on the flow of credit ?

Just how much control does the Fed have on the flow of credit?
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-05--NYC Mayor de Blasio drowned out by boos, faces calls to resign, at George Floyd memorial

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was drowned out by booing at a memorial for George Floyd in Brooklyn @ @ @ @ @ preacher who introduced him pleaded with attendees to show “ respect.
” “ Let us @ @ @ @ @ of New York City , Mayor Bill de Blasio and first lady Chirlane McCray , @ @ @ @ @ said .
Loud booing then broke out as the mayor took the stage , forcing @ @ @ @ @ Again , again , again , we said respect !
We said respect !
Say @ @ @ @ @ !
” When McCray took the microphone first , the booing subsided .

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was drowned out by booing at a memorial for George Floyd in Brooklyn on Thursday, as the preacher who introduced him pleaded with attendees to show “respect.”
“Let us welcome with respect the mayor of New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio and first lady Chirlane McCray,” Rev. Kevin McCall said.
Loud booing then broke out as the mayor took the stage, forcing McCall to add: “Again, again, again, we said respect! We said respect! Say it with me, respect!”
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When McCray took the microphone first, the booing subsided.
“Let us welcome, with respect, the mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio.” Crowd answers with loud boos at Brooklyn vigil for George Floyd. t.co/sRjzb8ejYu pic.twitter.com/nrNbNBa4Rl — Dan Linden (@DanLinden) June 4, 2020
www.foxnews.com/politics/nyc-mayor-de-blasio-drown-out-by-boos-calls-to-resign-at-george-floyd-memorial