investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--Is Tesla Too Ambitious For Its Own Good?

A decade since its public debut , Tesla Inc. ( NASDAQ : TSLA ) has evolved from a somewhat nondescript if overreaching EV startup into one of Wall Street ’ s most popular growth stocks .
TSLA has continued taking out fresh highs , going on another parabolic run that saw it climb a dizzying 400 % in the year-to-date as the company continues to defy bearish expectations that low oil prices and a crippling pandemic would put a damper on its business .
The EV king certainly did not disappoint during its latest earnings call , managing to not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ +51 % Y/Y ) and delivered 139,593 ( +44 % ) –but also posted impressive topline growth ( Revenue of $ 8.77B ( +39.2 % Y/Y ) as well as booking a record operating income of $ 809M .
The Joe Biden victory is largely being viewed as a big win for clean energy and the EV sector , with CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson picking Tesla , Aptiv Plc .
( NYSE : APTV ) , BorgWarner Inc. ( NYSE : BWA ) , Ford Motors ( NYSE : F ) , General @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Visteon Corp. ( NASDAQ : VC ) as the companies most likely to receive a jolt under Biden .
In case you are wondering how traditional ICE companies have made it on that list , Nelson says automakers with largely union workforces are likely to emerge as big winners from tax incentives that would further stimulate EV production .
Interestingly , TSLA has remained strangely muted , shedding 5 % in the first week of trading since Biden was declared the winner in a tight race .
Apparently , the Tesla @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For the bulls , Tesla is simply consolidating , while the bears will contend that the stock is on the cusp of a larger pullback .
While we remain bullish on TSLA over the long-term , there are a couple of reasons why TSLA stock is likely to face a much tougher road ahead .
Reason # 1 : Steep Valuation There ’ s no way to sugarcoat this : Tesla is overvalued by most traditional valuation metrics .
Tesla currently has a P/E GAAP ( FWD ) of 336.8 , way higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EV/Sales ( FWD ) multiple of 12.9 vs. 1.4 , EV/EBITDA ( FWD ) 67.7 vs. 12.9 , Price/Sales ( FWD ) 12.9 vs. 1.1 and Price/Book ( FWD ) 23.6 vs. 3.0 .
Tesla ’ s steep valuation becomes even more glaring when you pit it against traditional auto manufacturers .
Tesla currently boasts a market cap of $ 397.40B , about 3.5x the combined value of the three largest automakers : General Motors ( $ 58.05B ) , Ford ( $ 33.14B ) , and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles US ( NYSE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of $ 22.85B .
That ’ s hard to wrap your head around when you consider that the three companies sold more than 10x as many units as Tesla during the last quarter .
However , in Tesla ’ s defense , it was the only one of the four companies to record positive growth .
Tesla ’ s current market cap implies that the company will be able to sell more than 6M units , or one-in-four of global EV sales , by 2030 , marking a 12-fold increase in production output @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be an easy feat to pull off considering that Tesla ’ s global EV market share currently stands at 19 % , and also when you take into account that Tesla brands will be competing against nearly 500 other brands , or 10x the current number of EV brands globally according to BNEF estimates .
On a brighter note , Tesla has a clearer lane to 1M EV sales as early as 2021 , good for 100 % Y/Y growth from 2020 ’ s expected deliveries of 500K units .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big rally for TSLA stock .
One way to justify TSLA ’ s stratospheric valuation is by pointing out the growth potential of its energy business .
Indeed , during its latest earnings call , Tesla CEO Elon Musk told investors that he expects the energy business to “ grow to roughly the same size ” as its EV business .
But that ’ s probably easier said than done .
Last quarter , Tesla ’ s automobile revenues stood at nearly 87 % of total revenue compared to under 7 % for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tesla ’ s EV business has been growing , the energy business would have to grow at a ludicrous clip to have a chance of catching up even in a decade ’ s time .
Tesla ’ s energy business revolves around SolarCity , a company it acquired in late 2016 .
Back then , SolarCity was a dominant force in residential solar in the US market , but has virtually collapsed under Tesla , going from ~40 % market share to about 5 % by the end of 2019 .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including Tesla ’ s solar products lacking a competitive edge as well as delays in the launch of innovative products such as the Solar Roof .
Tesla ’ s energy storage business , on the other hand , has enjoyed much better traction .
Tesla ’ s storage deployments have managed to grow at ~100 % CAGR over the past four years compared to -42 % CAGR for solar deployments .
The storage business recently scored a big win after striking a deal with California ’ s PG & E that will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 730 MWh battery energy storage system at Moss Landing , one of the largest of its kind in the world .
Luckily , the solar business appears to be turning a corner .
The company announced that solar shipments increased 111 % Q-o-Q and 48 % Y/Y during the last quarter .
That ’ s quite impressive , considering the industry has projected a 25 % decline in rooftop solar installations in the current year due to the adverse effects of the pandemic .
Tesla has been able to turn the solar business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use of online sales channels .
Tesla ’ s solar business is on the right side of the solar megatrend , with solar energy expected to account for 80 % of clean energy growth from 2022-2030 .
Still , it will take many years of that kind of extreme growth for the energy business to approach the size of Tesla ’ s automotive segment , meaning it could remain an auxiliary business for at least another decade .
As we have pointed above , Tesla ’ s marketplace is likely to look very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BNEF predicting the company could be going up against ~500 EV brands by 2030 .
And Tesla is already facing much stiffer competition than it did a few years back .
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has predicted that GM ’ s GMC Hummer EV will be the foundational model of the company ’ s $ 20B push into the EV space over the next five years .
GM has a target of 1M EV sales a year across the U.S. China , though the GMC Hummer though starts at a much higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a base price of $ 39,990 for Tesla ’ s Model 3 Standard Range Plus .
Recently , BMW ( OTCPK : BMWYY ) launched the iX , a 500-hP full-electric SUV that the company is positioning as its flagship EV model .
Luckily , Tesla again has the upper hand on pricing , with The Verge estimating that the iX could start at $ 70,000 or more .
Tesla is also facing growing competition in its pivotal China market , where a GM Model has been outselling the immensely popular Model 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most recognizable name in the global EV space .
However , there won ’ t be a shortage of rivals trying to knock it off its pedestal in the coming years–and the likes of GM are already proving to be serious contenders .

By Alex Kimani
A decade since its public debut, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has evolved from a somewhat nondescript if overreaching EV startup into one of Wall Street’s most popular growth stocks.
TSLA has continued taking out fresh highs, going on another parabolic run that saw it climb a dizzying 400% in the year-to-date as the company continues to defy bearish expectations that low oil prices and a crippling pandemic would put a damper on its business.
The EV king certainly did not disappoint during its latest earnings call, managing to not only beat delivery expectations–produced 145,036 vehicles (+51% Y/Y) and delivered 139,593 (+44%)–but also posted impressive topline growth (Revenue of $8.77B (+39.2% Y/Y) as well as booking a record operating income of $809M.
The Joe Biden victory is largely being viewed as a big win for clean energy and the EV sector, with CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson picking Tesla, Aptiv Plc. (NYSE:APTV), BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE:BWA), Ford Motors (NYSE:F), General Motor Co (NYSE:GM), and Visteon Corp. (NASDAQ:VC) as the companies most likely to receive a jolt under Biden.
In case you are wondering how traditional ICE companies have made it on that list, Nelson says automakers with largely union workforces are likely to emerge as big winners from tax incentives that would further stimulate EV production.
Interestingly, TSLA has remained strangely muted, shedding 5% in the first week of trading since Biden was declared the winner in a tight race. Apparently, the Tesla halo appears to be fading away. For the bulls, Tesla is simply consolidating, while the bears will contend that the stock is on the cusp of a larger pullback.
While we remain bullish on TSLA over the long-term, there are a couple of reasons why TSLA stock is likely to face a much tougher road ahead.
Reason #1: Steep Valuation There’s no way to sugarcoat this: Tesla is overvalued by most traditional valuation metrics.
Tesla currently has a P/E GAAP (FWD) of 336.8, way higher than the sector median of 22.3; EV/Sales (FWD) multiple of 12.9 vs. 1.4, EV/EBITDA (FWD) 67.7 vs. 12.9, Price/Sales (FWD) 12.9 vs. 1.1 and Price/Book (FWD) 23.6 vs. 3.0.
Tesla’s steep valuation becomes even more glaring when you pit it against traditional auto manufacturers.
Tesla currently boasts a market cap of $397.40B, about 3.5x the combined value of the three largest automakers: General Motors ($58.05B), Ford ($33.14B), and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles US (NYSE: FCAU) with a market cap of $22.85B. That’s hard to wrap your head around when you consider that the three companies sold more than 10x as many units as Tesla during the last quarter. However, in Tesla’s defense, it was the only one of the four companies to record positive growth.
Tesla’s current market cap implies that the company will be able to sell more than 6M units, or one-in-four of global EV sales, by 2030, marking a 12-fold increase in production output in just a decade. That won’t be an easy feat to pull off considering that Tesla’s global EV market share currently stands at 19%, and also when you take into account that Tesla brands will be competing against nearly 500 other brands, or 10x the current number of EV brands globally according to BNEF estimates.
On a brighter note, Tesla has a clearer lane to 1M EV sales as early as 2021, good for 100% Y/Y growth from 2020’s expected deliveries of 500K units. That kind of growth would definitely power another big rally for TSLA stock.
Reason #2: No Clear Path for Energy Business
One way to justify TSLA’s stratospheric valuation is by pointing out the growth potential of its energy business.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Indeed, during its latest earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told investors that he expects the energy business to “grow to roughly the same size” as its EV business.
But that’s probably easier said than done.
Last quarter, Tesla’s automobile revenues stood at nearly 87% of total revenue compared to under 7% for its energy products. Given how fast Tesla’s EV business has been growing, the energy business would have to grow at a ludicrous clip to have a chance of catching up even in a decade’s time.
Tesla’s energy business revolves around SolarCity, a company it acquired in late 2016. Back then, SolarCity was a dominant force in residential solar in the US market, but has virtually collapsed under Tesla, going from ~40% market share to about 5% by the end of 2019. That’s due to a raft of factors, including Tesla’s solar products lacking a competitive edge as well as delays in the launch of innovative products such as the Solar Roof.
Tesla’s energy storage business, on the other hand, has enjoyed much better traction. Tesla’s storage deployments have managed to grow at ~100% CAGR over the past four years compared to -42% CAGR for solar deployments. The storage business recently scored a big win after striking a deal with California’s PG&E that will see Tesla construct a 182.5 MW, 730 MWh battery energy storage system at Moss Landing, one of the largest of its kind in the world.
Luckily, the solar business appears to be turning a corner. The company announced that solar shipments increased 111% Q-o-Q and 48% Y/Y during the last quarter. That’s quite impressive, considering the industry has projected a 25% decline in rooftop solar installations in the current year due to the adverse effects of the pandemic. Tesla has been able to turn the solar business around mainly through price cuts and aggressive use of online sales channels.
Tesla’s solar business is on the right side of the solar megatrend, with solar energy expected to account for 80% of clean energy growth from 2022-2030.
Still, it will take many years of that kind of extreme growth for the energy business to approach the size of Tesla’s automotive segment, meaning it could remain an auxiliary business for at least another decade.
Reason #3: Growing Competition
As we have pointed above, Tesla’s marketplace is likely to look very different from the current one, with BNEF predicting the company could be going up against ~500 EV brands by 2030.
And Tesla is already facing much stiffer competition than it did a few years back.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has predicted that GM’s GMC Hummer EV will be the foundational model of the company’s $20B push into the EV space over the next five years. GM has a target of 1M EV sales a year across the U.S. China, though the GMC Hummer though starts at a much higher price point of $113K compared with a base price of $39,990 for Tesla’s Model 3 Standard Range Plus.
Recently, BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) launched the iX, a 500-hP full-electric SUV that the company is positioning as its flagship EV model. Luckily, Tesla again has the upper hand on pricing, with The Verge estimating that the iX could start at $70,000 or more.
Tesla is also facing growing competition in its pivotal China market, where a GM Model has been outselling the immensely popular Model 3.
Tesla remains, by far, the most recognizable name in the global EV space. However, there won’t be a shortage of rivals trying to knock it off its pedestal in the coming years–and the likes of GM are already proving to be serious contenders.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--Biden & Kamala Set Up Legal Defense Fund – Admit “Fight Isn’t Over” – They must be panicking!

Why would they need this ?
Trump and the Republicans are trying to dismantle our decisive victory with baseless lawsuits @ @ @ @ @ to fund the legal work necessary to protect every vote .
If you can afford @ @ @ @ @ Biden Fight Fund today .
t.co/JkMqdDWsZu Interesting timing considering Sidney ’ s KRAKEN she ’ @ @ @ @ @ SCOOP : Concerned by their shrinking House majority , Speaker Pelosi and Steny Hoyer have @ @ @ @ @ to accept key posts with the Biden administration .
`` Nancy is telling House members @ @ @ @ @ time to leave . '
'' t.co/oY4oqHQnh5 /w @ ccampy

Why would they need this?
Trump and the Republicans are trying to dismantle our decisive victory with baseless lawsuits. We need your help to fund the legal work necessary to protect every vote. If you can afford to, contribute to the Biden Fight Fund today. t.co/JkMqdDWsZu
Interesting timing considering Sidney’s KRAKEN she’s about to release!
More panic
SCOOP: Concerned by their shrinking House majority, Speaker Pelosi and Steny Hoyer have been warning Democratic lawmakers not to accept key posts with the Biden administration.
"Nancy is telling House members, 'Now is not the time to leave.'"t.co/oY4oqHQnh5 /w @ccampy
— Ebony Bowden (@ebonybowden) November 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--INTEL: China Providing AUTOMATIC Weapons To BLM — Weapons Stored On State Property — COMMIE Gov Grue

INTEL: China Providing AUTOMATIC Weapons To BLM — Weapons Stored On State Property — COMMIE Gov Gruesome To Blame

New Intel : Communist China providing automatic weapons to Antifa , Black Lives Matter… some stored in democrat-run government buildings including East End Complex Capitol building in Sacramento – Block 174 – Communist China is supplying full auto AR-15 “ mods ” to Black Lives Matter militants in America , and a shipment was recently interdicted by Customer and Border Protection ( CBP ) .
– California Gov .
Newsom is involved in a trillion-dollar money laundering operation with communist China to keep him in power .
He ’ s funneling taxpayer money to China , and they are laundering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
– Using the laundered money , Gov .
Newsom is stockpiling automatic weapons , ammunition and gold in the underground storage complex at 1616 Capitol Ave. in Sacramento , the East End Complex building – block 174 .
( Sourced from a former employee who worked there . )
– Gov .
Newsom is plotting with China to have communist troops invade America ( via California and other states ) and to overrun and occupy the United States , turning it over to communist Chinese rule .
– China ’ s EMP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the USA , are planned to be the first wave “ Pearl Harbor ” event that sets it all off .
– Obama helped set up a civilian military force using Operation Fast and Furious gun smuggling to arm the narcos .
( Full timeline link below . )
– Those same narcos are now trained by communist Chinese military instructors and are prepared to invade America with the aid of heavy weapons .
( DHS sources via Hodges , link below . )
– The civil war America is facing won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” but rather heavily armed , full-auto wielding Black Lives Matter militants , Mexican narco gangs and communist Chinese troops operating under the protection of Gov .
Newsom .
– Hundreds of companies across corporate America are now directly funding or overtly supporting Black Lives Matter terrorists as part of this civil war effort to destroy America

New Intel: Communist China providing automatic weapons to Antifa, Black Lives Matter… some stored in democrat-run government buildings including East End Complex Capitol building in Sacramento – Block 174
– Communist China is supplying full auto AR-15 “mods” to Black Lives Matter militants in America, and a shipment was recently interdicted by Customer and Border Protection (CBP).
– California Gov. Newsom is involved in a trillion-dollar money laundering operation with communist China to keep him in power. He’s funneling taxpayer money to China, and they are laundering it and funneling money back to him.
www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/gavin-newsom-n95-masks-byd-chinese-company-california-legislature)
– Using the laundered money, Gov. Newsom is stockpiling automatic weapons, ammunition and gold in the underground storage complex at 1616 Capitol Ave. in Sacramento, the East End Complex building – block 174. (Sourced from a former employee who worked there.)
– Gov. Newsom is plotting with China to have communist troops invade America (via California and other states) and to overrun and occupy the United States, turning it over to communist Chinese rule.
– China’s EMP weapons, developed using technology stolen from the USA, are planned to be the first wave “Pearl Harbor” event that sets it all off.
emptaskforce.us/
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
– Obama helped set up a civilian military force using Operation Fast and Furious gun smuggling to arm the narcos. (Full timeline link below.)
– Those same narcos are now trained by communist Chinese military instructors and are prepared to invade America with the aid of heavy weapons. (DHS sources via Hodges, link below.)
– The civil war America is facing won’t be lightly-armed “soy boys,” but rather heavily armed, full-auto wielding Black Lives Matter militants, Mexican narco gangs and communist Chinese troops operating under the protection of Gov. Newsom.
– Hundreds of companies across corporate America are now directly funding or overtly supporting Black Lives Matter terrorists as part of this civil war effort to destroy America
www.terrorism.news/2020-06-25-269-companies-supporting-antifa-black-lives-matter.html
www.distributednews.com/437676.html
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--BIG TECH: Cutting Off WiFi To CENSOR Trump Rally In D.C.

Big tech censoring the # StopTheSteaI Rally in DC by cutting off WIFI in order to stop our ability to @ @ @ @ @ # MillionMAGAMarch @ mrmayfieldusa pic.twitter.com/slpzjFIeLo

Big tech censoring the #StopTheSteaI Rally in DC by cutting off WIFI in order to stop our ability to go live and post. #MillionMAGAMarch @mrmayfieldusa pic.twitter.com/slpzjFIeLo
— Ricky Rebel (@RickyRebelRocks) November 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--In case you’re confused…. CONGRESS made an official statement THERE IS NO PRESIDENT ELECT AS OF NOW!

Here is the link : t.co/eoGyZNTNAz

Here is the link: t.co/eoGyZNTNAz
— ⚖ The Justice Team ⚖ (@LawDog323) November 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--WordPress Joins the Squashing of Conservative Speech

Most CTH readers are likely aware of the term “ deplatforming.
” Unfortunately , the big tech control mechanism to shut down speech & assembly has now arrived on our doorstep .
One week after the 2020 presidential election , The Conservative Treehouse received the following notification : What does this mean ?
It means CTH is being kicked-off the WordPress website hosting platform because the content of our research and discussion does not align with the ideology of those who define what is acceptable speech and what is not .
What was our violation ?
After ten years of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research and crowdsourcing work -with undeniable citations on the events we outline- there is no cited violation of any term of service because CTH has never violated one .
The WordPress company is not explaining the reason for deplatforming because there is no justifiable reason for it .
At the same time , they are bold in their position .
Perhaps this is the most alarming part ; and everyone should pay attention .
They don ’ t care .
Truthful assembly is now the risk .
CTH is now too big ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a million unique readers each day ; and with well over 200,000 subscribers ; our assembly is too large , too influential , and presents a risk… we guard the flickering flame .
Ten years of work assembling a library of factual citations and explanations of those discoveries , positions CTH to be a leading force in the rebel alliance push-back .
[ Heck , that ’ s why this place was started… that was our purpose : `` The Truth Has No Agenda.
” ] However , that also makes us a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -at its core- this move is all about politics , this is yet another reference point in the tenuous nature of where we stand .
There ’ s no hate-speech on this website ; there ’ s no graphic , violent , foul or abusive speech here .
The ‘ content ‘ of the Treehouse is the same discussion that happens around your kitchen table or back porch discussion with friends .
We would never cheapen or insult that conversation with vulgarity because that ’ s not who we are… because that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So consider this next part very carefully… The ‘ content ’ is not compatible with WordPress , the world ’ s largest website and blog hosting service .
The content within the largest blog on that global platform is what has become troublesome .
“ The content ” .
The content on these pages is simply an ongoing discussion about freedom with criticism against any political party or entity that diminishes it .
Apparently , immediately after the 2020 election , that discussion became problematic .
After writing about the COVID-19 agenda , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ removed .
Let that settle in… .
friends and adversaries alike .
Think very hard about what exactly is being represented by these actions .
That ’ s the bad news .
So what are we going to do ?
First three priorities : # 1 is the security of the site content and research files with over a decade of work ; # 2 ) ensuring the ability of our assembly to remain ; # 3 ) continue the mission .
In the past several days I have begun contacting people to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the best course of action .
On a very positive note , the Rebel Alliance is stronger than ever and no amount of effort by Big Tech is going to be able to weaken the resolve or block the message .
We will take this challenge head-on and we will use this attack against our freedom as fuel to launch CTH 2.0 , a new version of The Conservative Treehouse .
I have no idea yet what it will look like… hopefully not too dissimilar to what we are already comfortable with .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the technological world since 2010/2011 .
There are many new and innovative ways to develop , build and create proprietary platforms .
I don ’ t like anything about having to be forced to do this .
Readers here know I prefer comfortable quality that lasts a long time ; but there is no alternative .
We are being kicked-off WordPress and will have to assemble on a platform that allows free expression , free thought and free ideas to be shared , valued and appreciated .
Additionally , as I look at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guiding element is priority : I will continue to work earnestly to be deserving of your support and fellowship .
When this site was launched it was for all of us .
A refuge , a place of comfort : However each of us got here , it ’ s probably a fact that we have the turmoil of those storms in common , perhaps some unease that we could share and always , we also find fresh ground to cover from day to day .
We ’ re developing valuable relationships as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the woods .
The chatting in the branches encourages , strengthens and equips for some serious walking .
We think the Treehouse is a good armory for those who doing long distance walking for the sake of our nation .
We hope you ’ ll think so , too .
Find yourself a good branch….or just pull up a rock to the campfire .
YOU are what matters !
We have shared laughs .
We have lost friends .
We have lost family together .
We have comforted each-other .
We have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together .
Sometimes we are not able to find the words of comfort , yet we know it is just as valuable to be there , quietly , steadfast and eliminate the loneliness .
We have cried together and rejoiced in each-other ’ s milestones… This is the source of my resolve .
We have achieved great victories ; confronted injustice ; done incredible crowdsourcing work that has made lives better , and we have successfully found the truth behind a multitude of frauds and schemes .
Let there be no doubt , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ somewhat quiet lately as I try to figure out what exactly is the next thing to do .
Much like our nation , there is trepidation all around us .
It is likely that CTH will look different and we may have to engage and learn some new stuff .
But it will be OK .
The rebel alliance is strong… and we are angry .

Most CTH readers are likely aware of the term “deplatforming.” Unfortunately, the big tech control mechanism to shut down speech & assembly has now arrived on our doorstep.
One week after the 2020 presidential election, The Conservative Treehouse received the following notification:
…”given the incompatibility between your site’s content and our terms, you need to find a new hosting provider and must migrate the site by Wednesday, December 2nd.
What does this mean? It means CTH is being kicked-off the WordPress website hosting platform because the content of our research and discussion does not align with the ideology of those who define what is acceptable speech and what is not.
What was our violation? After ten years of brutally honest discussion, opinion, deep research and crowdsourcing work -with undeniable citations on the events we outline- there is no cited violation of any term of service because CTH has never violated one.
The WordPress company is not explaining the reason for deplatforming because there is no justifiable reason for it. At the same time, they are bold in their position. Perhaps this is the most alarming part; and everyone should pay attention. They don’t care.
Truthful assembly is now the risk. CTH is now too big; with a site reach of 500,000 to a million unique readers each day; and with well over 200,000 subscribers; our assembly is too large, too influential, and presents a risk… we guard the flickering flame.
Ten years of work assembling a library of factual citations and explanations of those discoveries, positions CTH to be a leading force in the rebel alliance push-back. [Heck, that’s why this place was started… that was our purpose: “The Truth Has No Agenda.”] However, that also makes us a target; hence the deplatforming.
Accepting -at its core- this move is all about politics, this is yet another reference point in the tenuous nature of where we stand. There’s no hate-speech on this website; there’s no graphic, violent, foul or abusive speech here. The ‘content‘ of the Treehouse is the same discussion that happens around your kitchen table or back porch discussion with friends. We would never cheapen or insult that conversation with vulgarity because that’s not who we are… because that’s not who our nation is. So consider this next part very carefully…
The ‘content’ is not compatible with WordPress, the world’s largest website and blog hosting service. The content within the largest blog on that global platform is what has become troublesome. “The content”.
The content on these pages is simply an ongoing discussion about freedom with criticism against any political party or entity that diminishes it. Apparently, immediately after the 2020 election, that discussion became problematic. After writing about the COVID-19 agenda,…the notification: the website will be removed.
Let that settle in…. friends and adversaries alike. Think very hard about what exactly is being represented by these actions. That’s the bad news.
So what are we going to do?
First three priorities: #1 is the security of the site content and research files with over a decade of work; #2) ensuring the ability of our assembly to remain; #3) continue the mission.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the past several days I have begun contacting people to inform and gather counsel on what is the best course of action. On a very positive note, the Rebel Alliance is stronger than ever and no amount of effort by Big Tech is going to be able to weaken the resolve or block the message.
We will take this challenge head-on and we will use this attack against our freedom as fuel to launch CTH 2.0, a new version of The Conservative Treehouse.
I have no idea yet what it will look like… hopefully not too dissimilar to what we are already comfortable with. However, a lot has changed in the technological world since 2010/2011. There are many new and innovative ways to develop, build and create proprietary platforms.
I don’t like anything about having to be forced to do this. Readers here know I prefer comfortable quality that lasts a long time; but there is no alternative. We are being kicked-off WordPress and will have to assemble on a platform that allows free expression, free thought and free ideas to be shared, valued and appreciated.
Additionally, as I look at preliminary options for Treehouse 2.0, one guiding element is priority: I will continue to work earnestly to be deserving of your support and fellowship.
When this site was launched it was for all of us. A refuge, a place of comfort:
However each of us got here, it’s probably a fact that we have the turmoil of those storms in common, perhaps some unease that we could share and always, we also find fresh ground to cover from day to day. We’re developing valuable relationships as we trust one another in our community in the woods. The chatting in the branches encourages, strengthens and equips for some serious walking. We think the Treehouse is a good armory for those who doing long distance walking for the sake of our nation. We hope you’ll think so, too. Find yourself a good branch….or just pull up a rock to the campfire.
YOU are what matters!
We have shared laughs. We have lost friends. We have lost family together. We have comforted each-other. We have prayed together… and we have sat still together. Sometimes we are not able to find the words of comfort, yet we know it is just as valuable to be there, quietly, steadfast and eliminate the loneliness. We have cried together and rejoiced in each-other’s milestones… This is the source of my resolve.
We have achieved great victories; confronted injustice; done incredible crowdsourcing work that has made lives better, and we have successfully found the truth behind a multitude of frauds and schemes. Let there be no doubt, that will continue.
I have been somewhat quiet lately as I try to figure out what exactly is the next thing to do. Much like our nation, there is trepidation all around us. It is likely that CTH will look different and we may have to engage and learn some new stuff. But it will be OK.
The rebel alliance is strong… and we are angry.
.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--CVS Hiring 1000s of Untrained, Nonprofessionals to Give COVID-19 Shots

The U.S. Health and Human Services and Department of Defense are partnering with CVS and Walgreens to administer flu and @ @ @ @ @ long-term care facilities .
To help with this , CVS announced that they are hiring @ @ @ @ @ the country , as soon as possible .
Since the techs aren ’ t actual @ @ @ @ @ even pharmacists — CVS plans to ask the government for an “ expanded scope of @ @ @ @ @ the new techs to give the COVID vaccines “ under the supervision of a pharmacist @ @ @ @ @ news release did not say if the pharmacists would actually be on-site while the shots @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re just acting as supervisors .

The U.S. Health and Human Services and Department of Defense are partnering with CVS and Walgreens to administer flu and COVID-19 shots to residents in long-term care facilities. To help with this, CVS announced that they are hiring 15,000 new pharmacy technicians across the country, as soon as possible.
Since the techs aren’t actual nurses or doctors — or even pharmacists — CVS plans to ask the government for an “expanded scope of practice” that would allow the new techs to give the COVID vaccines “under the supervision of a pharmacist who is immunization-certified.” The news release did not say if the pharmacists would actually be on-site while the shots are given, or if they’re just acting as supervisors.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
blogs.mercola.com/sites/vitalvotes/archive/2020/11/15/cvs-hiring-1000s-of-untrained-nonprofessionals-to-give-covid19-shots.aspx


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-16--DENMARK: After 9 days of banging pots & pans outside parliament the epidemic law is SCRAPPED. PROTES

DENMARK: After 9 days of banging pots & pans outside parliament the epidemic law is SCRAPPED. PROTESTING WORKS: DO IT!

EXPLAINED : What is Denmark ’ s proposed 'epidemic law ' and why is it being criticised ?
t.co/PzxMk7IuIy

EXPLAINED: What is Denmark’s proposed 'epidemic law' and why is it being criticised?t.co/PzxMk7IuIy
— Robin Monotti Graziadei (@robinmonotti) November 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-18--Hedge fund manager tries to escape FBI using underwater “sea scooter” in California.

SACRAMENTO ( CBS13 ) — A suspect in a $ 35 million Ponzi scheme is in custody after trying to @ @ @ @ @ sea scooter to hide from FBI agents in Lake Shasta .
The U.S. Attorney ’ @ @ @ @ @ that said 44-year-old Matthew Piercey used a Yamaha submersible device to stay under the surface @ @ @ @ @ leading agents on a chase through neighborhoods and highways in the Redding area .
A @ @ @ @ @ swim into the lake with the device after abandoning his truck at the shore .
@ @ @ @ @ the “ sea scooter ” as having underwater propulsion that allows users to cruise at @ @ @ @ @ the surface .
According to court documents , Piercey was out of sight underwater

SACRAMENTO (CBS13) — A suspect in a $35 million Ponzi scheme is in custody after trying to escape arrest by using a sea scooter to hide from FBI agents in Lake Shasta.
The U.S. Attorney’s office filed court documents that said 44-year-old Matthew Piercey used a Yamaha submersible device to stay under the surface of Lake Shasta after initially leading agents on a chase through neighborhoods and highways in the Redding area. A helicopter monitoring Piercey watched him swim into the lake with the device after abandoning his truck at the shore.
A Yamaha tutorial video describes the “sea scooter” as having underwater propulsion that allows users to cruise at depths of 100 feet below the surface. According to court documents, Piercey was out of sight underwater


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-18--I’m sure they’re all grateful that the Fed has pushed stocks to all time highs

I’m sure they’re all grateful that the Fed has pushed stocks to all time highs t.co/maNLrLxq9m — Nate Anderson (@ClarityToast) November 17, 2020
FED’s new economy – everybody will be unemployed with fiscal stimulus and U3 unemployment will be on 4%. CBs IMO have crossed the rubikon. From zombifying the economy we are jumping straight to an empty pool on a head called „zombified society”+”zombified economy” with no return. t.co/WKtcixjLUy — GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) November 17, 2020
The Fed owns a higher % of the mortgage-backed bond market than Treasurys. The Fed owns 18.5% of a MBS outstanding and 16.5% of Treasurys outstanding. No wonder there's a housing bubble… — Dave Kranzler (@InvResDynamics) November 18, 2020
America’s Zombie Companies Have Racked Up $1.4 Trillion of Debt Nearly 20% of 3,000 country’s largest publicly-traded companies are zombies. “The Fed decided to step in. They knew they were going to create zombies"#US #Fed #debt #economyt.co/w8Dd3tbuiB pic.twitter.com/Lzt6VIVNhS — GnS Economics (@GnSEconomics) November 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-18--Once again, its the deadliest day in the pandemic so far…..(globally)

Once again , its the deadliest day in the pandemic so far….. ( globally ) pic.twitter.com/VMVGTlmT5b

Once again, its the deadliest day in the pandemic so far…..(globally) pic.twitter.com/VMVGTlmT5b
— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) November 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-18--Dot Com bubble took the Dollar from 120 to 70

Dot Com bubble took the Dollar from 120 to 70 pic.twitter.com/uIgb0ZG8Jf — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 17, 2020
The latest data show that M1 money supply in the US has increased by a staggering 42.1% compared to 12 months ago. pic.twitter.com/2PVX7d2E3j — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) November 17, 2020
SPX vs 10Y, jaw has to close at some point. @themarketear pic.twitter.com/RV3HA7XGII — Gianluca De Stefano (@Theimmigrant84) November 17, 2020
America’s Zombie Companies Have Racked Up $1.4 Trillion of Debt Nearly 20% of 3,000 country’s largest publicly-traded companies are zombies. “The Fed decided to step in. They knew they were going to create zombies"#US #Fed #debt #economyt.co/w8Dd3tbuiB pic.twitter.com/Lzt6VIVNhS — GnS Economics (@GnSEconomics) November 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-18--Berkshire Hathaways 13-F Filings, Slashes Wells Fargo holdings, Exits Costco entirely, 95% reduction

Berkshire Hathaways 13-F Filings, Slashes Wells Fargo holdings, Exits Costco entirely, 95% reduction in JPM position

Didn ’ t see anyone post about this , but here ’ s a picture of notable movements in their @ @ @ @ @ he ’ s placing his financial bets on BAC .
And why exit Costco fully @ @ @ @ @ especially since Charlie Munger is on their board .
Here ’ s a graphic I @ @ @ @ @ of the notable movements .

Didn’t see anyone post about this, but here’s a picture of notable movements in their portfolio.
Any idea why he’s placing his financial bets on BAC. And why exit Costco fully, that’s interesting especially since Charlie Munger is on their board.
Here’s a graphic I found on Instagram detailing some of the notable movements.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Ars2012


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Technically Speaking: Bulls Go Ballistic – Time To Reduce Risk

In this past weekend ’ s newsletter , we discussed the exceedingly deviated price and overbought conditions .
When we combine the technical backdrop with the “ bulls going ballistic , ” it once again makes sense to reduce risk in our portfolios .
“ The rally from the October lows was a ‘ sellable rally.
’ The current rally is as well .
Given the more overbought condition , we expect a one to two-week correction at the beginning of December as mutual funds make their annual distributions .
While it is feasible , the markets will end the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a better entry point first .
“ These more extreme overbought , extended conditions rarely last long .
We reduced our risk exposure in our portfolios yesterday morning via RIAPro.net : “ The market has gotten back to more extreme overbought , extended and bullish levels .
Historically , such a setup has led to short-term corrections , or worse .
While the vaccine news this morning is certainly welcome , the markets have already priced much of that into stocks currently .
Considering a vaccine won ’ t be widely available to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will continue to weigh on profitability for now .
As such , we are taking profits in some of our more egregiously extended positions and will use a post-Thanksgiving correction to add back to holdings at a cheaper level.
” Not surprisingly , I received more than a few emails chastising me for “ bailing on the bull market , which is going higher.
” Such is hardly the case .
We reduced our weighting in some of the companies which have had substantial gains over the last year .
We remain primarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extreme technical overbought and deviated conditions ; it was prudent to raise some cash and protect our gains .
Interestingly , such was also a point made in this past weekend ’ s newsletter : When people believe that they need to take ‘ a little more risk ’ to generate greater returns , they may be making a very BIG mistake if they underestimate what ‘ risk ’ really means to them.
” As we noted in “ Moral Hazard , ” the Federal Reserve believes that insuring people against investment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors are encouraged to take more risk currently , as prices rise , they begin to disregard risk for what it is .
When people take “ a little risk ” and get rewarded for it , they are then encouraged to take “ a little more risk.
” “ People in the ‘ crowd ’ don ’ t appreciate the risks they are taking because they ’ re surrounded by people who believe the market will keep going up.
” However , it wasn ’ t just the conditions we discussed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the short term .
Investor positioning has also reached rather extreme levels .
As Bob Farrell once wrote : Following the election , investors aggressively added to their equities .
The last time we saw this type of surge was in December of 2017 , followed by a near 20 % decline just two months later .
Our composite “ fear/greed ” indicator , which primarily comprises investor positioning , shows much of the same as “ bullish sentiment ” pushes back to extremes .
Most notably was the AAII bullish sentiment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
All of a sudden , they decided it was time to get bullish again .
As noted : Every week , we provide RIAPRO subscribers ( Try Free for 30-Days ) with the latest updated technical composite score .
This hybrid gauge combines extension , deviation , and momentum into a single weekly measure .
Readings above 85 ( Currently 87.39 ) are always associated with short-term corrective actions in the market .
Our risk/reward range table is also sending an important warning .
With deviations from the long-term weekly moving averages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regular monthly price changes , short-term corrections have been nearby .
With all of these conditions aligned , the “ probability ” of a short-term correction has increased .
Given that risk outweighs reward in the short-term , we decided it was prudent to reduce that equation ’ s numerator .
It May Be Time To Be Contrarian While reducing risk currently may seem a bit premature , some other signs suggest that markets are well ahead of themselves .
“ Insider selling ” has reached more important extremes and typically coincides with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michael Lebowitz pointed out in the newsletter : Bloomberg ’ s Smart Money Flow Index is a measure of how ‘ smart money ’ is positioning itself in the S & P 500 .
The logic behind the index is that smart investors tend to trade near the end of the day , while more emotional-based traders dominate activity in the first 30 minutes of the trading day .
The index is calculated as follows : yesterday index level – the opening gain or loss + change in the last hour .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the S & P were well correlated until late August .
Since then , as highlighted by the red arrow , they have diverged sharply .
Over the last ten years , the S & P 500 and the Smart Index have a strong correlation of .65 .
As such , we expect they will converge in time .
The light blue circle shows they also diverged , albeit to a much lesser extent , in January and February as the smart money correctly sensed problems.
” By reducing risk now , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Less equity risk , and higher cash levels , lower the portfolio ’ s volatility , which will allow us to navigate a correction process and protect our investment capital .
• It gives us capital to reinvest back into positions we currently own at better prices ; or , • Buy new positions which have corrected in price .
While it is entirely true that “ you can not time the market , ” you can manage the risk of capital loss .
Jeffrey Marcus summed up our thoughts well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Subscribers .
How long exactly is that ?
It equates to roughly • 1 in every 1.629 x 10^76 years , OR • Should we now expect more fat-tail events ?
• Maybe not ; and , The probability is that we will see another 5-10 % correction in the not too distant future .
Such was the same call we made in February , August , and early October .
While many will read this article as being “ bearish , ” it isn ’ t .
As portfolio managers , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the potential for reward .
In other words , we “ we prepare for the probabilities , but leave room to adjust for the possibilities.
” No one knows with certainty what the future holds , which is why we must manage portfolio risk accordingly and be prepared to react when conditions change .
While I am often tagged as “ bearish ” due to my analysis of economic and fundamental data for “ what it is ” rather than “ what I hope it to be , ” I am neither bullish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set of rules that are the core of my portfolio management philosophy , focusing on capital preservation and long-term “ risk-adjusted ” returns .
The current market advance has pushed back to more extreme bullish positioning .
How long it can last is anyone ’ s guess .
However , remember that markets ebb and flow around long-term moving averages .
When markets rise too far above them , “ gravity ” tends to take over .

by Lance Roberts
In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price and overbought conditions. When we combine the technical backdrop with the “bulls going ballistic,” it once again makes sense to reduce risk in our portfolios.
“The rally from the October lows was a ‘sellable rally.’ The current rally is as well. Given the more overbought condition, we expect a one to two-week correction at the beginning of December as mutual funds make their annual distributions. While it is feasible, the markets will end the year positively; we will likely see a better entry point first. “
These more extreme overbought, extended conditions rarely last long. We reduced our risk exposure in our portfolios yesterday morning via RIAPro.net:
“The market has gotten back to more extreme overbought, extended and bullish levels. Historically, such a setup has led to short-term corrections, or worse. While the vaccine news this morning is certainly welcome, the markets have already priced much of that into stocks currently. Considering a vaccine won’t be widely available to mid-to late-next year, the economic weakness will continue to weigh on profitability for now. As such, we are taking profits in some of our more egregiously extended positions and will use a post-Thanksgiving correction to add back to holdings at a cheaper level.”
Risk Begets Risk
Not surprisingly, I received more than a few emails chastising me for “bailing on the bull market, which is going higher.”
Such is hardly the case. We reduced our weighting in some of the companies which have had substantial gains over the last year. We remain primarily long-biased in our portfolios, but given the extreme technical overbought and deviated conditions; it was prudent to raise some cash and protect our gains.
Interestingly, such was also a point made in this past weekend’s newsletter:
When people believe that they need to take ‘a little more risk’ to generate greater returns, they may be making a very BIG mistake if they underestimate what ‘risk’ really means to them.” As we noted in “Moral Hazard,” the Federal Reserve believes that insuring people against investment losses is a dangerous one. While investors are encouraged to take more risk currently, as prices rise, they begin to disregard risk for what it is. When people take “a little risk” and get rewarded for it, they are then encouraged to take “a little more risk.” “People in the ‘crowd’ don’t appreciate the risks they are taking because they’re surrounded by people who believe the market will keep going up.”
Bullish Outbreaks
However, it wasn’t just the conditions we discussed, which have us concerned about the markets in the short term. Investor positioning has also reached rather extreme levels. As Bob Farrell once wrote:
“Investors buy the most at the top, and the least at the bottom.”
Following the election, investors aggressively added to their equities. The last time we saw this type of surge was in December of 2017, followed by a near 20% decline just two months later.
Our composite “fear/greed” indicator, which primarily comprises investor positioning, shows much of the same as “bullish sentiment” pushes back to extremes.
Most notably was the AAII bullish sentiment, which has remained suppressed since March. All of a sudden, they decided it was time to get bullish again. As noted:
The percentage of bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey rose to 55.8% while bears dropped to 24.9%, pushing the Bull Ratio, a more accurate measure of optimism, above 69%. The last 2 times it got this high, stocks ended up running into trouble eventually.” – SentimenTrader
Technical Extremes
Every week, we provide RIAPRO subscribers (Try Free for 30-Days) with the latest updated technical composite score. This hybrid gauge combines extension, deviation, and momentum into a single weekly measure. Readings above 85 (Currently 87.39) are always associated with short-term corrective actions in the market.
Our risk/reward range table is also sending an important warning. With deviations from the long-term weekly moving averages at extremes and prices well outside of regular monthly price changes, short-term corrections have been nearby.
With all of these conditions aligned, the “probability” of a short-term correction has increased. Given that risk outweighs reward in the short-term, we decided it was prudent to reduce that equation’s numerator.
It May Be Time To Be Contrarian
While reducing risk currently may seem a bit premature, some other signs suggest that markets are well ahead of themselves. “Insider selling” has reached more important extremes and typically coincides with short-term market corrections.
Also, as Michael Lebowitz pointed out in the newsletter:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bloomberg’s Smart Money Flow Index is a measure of how ‘smart money’ is positioning itself in the S&P 500. The logic behind the index is that smart investors tend to trade near the end of the day, while more emotional-based traders dominate activity in the first 30 minutes of the trading day. The index is calculated as follows: yesterday index level – the opening gain or loss + change in the last hour. As shown below, the Smart Index and the S&P were well correlated until late August. Since then, as highlighted by the red arrow, they have diverged sharply. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500 and the Smart Index have a strong correlation of .65. As such, we expect they will converge in time. The light blue circle shows they also diverged, albeit to a much lesser extent, in January and February as the smart money correctly sensed problems.”
By reducing risk now, it provides us three benefits for the future.
Less equity risk, and higher cash levels, lower the portfolio’s volatility, which will allow us to navigate a correction process and protect our investment capital. It gives us capital to reinvest back into positions we currently own at better prices; or, Buy new positions which have corrected in price.
While it is entirely true that “you can not time the market,” you can manage the risk of capital loss.
Buy The Rumor. Sell The News.
Jeffrey Marcus summed up our thoughts well in his Monday morning post to TPA Subscribers.
“The recent rally has been driven by the former losers and much of this performance happened after the PFEs 11/9 announcement of very positive vaccine data. The moves since 11/9 are so dramatic that they have destroyed many statistical models. Jon Quigley who manages $3.8 billion wrote to clients, that events that happened statistically should never happen. The occurrence statistically only happens roughly once every: ‘5,944,505,312,905,660,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 days in a normally-distributed return series, (Bloomberg 11/13/20).’
How long exactly is that? It equates to roughly
1 in every 1.629 x 10^76 years, OR
1.2 x 10^66 age of the universe.
“In a market run in part by models, machines, and day-traders, this probably should not have been a surprise. Its not a coincidence were seeing more 6 sig+ moves relative to history, Cem Karsan, founder of Aegea Capital Management LLC, tweeted, using the symbol denoting standard deviation. These arent your fathers equity markets.
Jeff concludes with two questions.
Is the current relative performance pattern sustainable? Should we now expect more fat-tail events?
His answers were simplistic:
Maybe not; and, Definitely.
We Play The Probabilities
The probability is that we will see another 5-10% correction in the not too distant future. Such was the same call we made in February, August, and early October.
While many will read this article as being “bearish,” it isn’t.
As portfolio managers, we manage the risk of capital loss against the potential for reward. In other words, we “we prepare for the probabilities, but leave room to adjust for the possibilities.”
No one knows with certainty what the future holds, which is why we must manage portfolio risk accordingly and be prepared to react when conditions change.
While I am often tagged as “bearish” due to my analysis of economic and fundamental data for “what it is” rather than “what I hope it to be,” I am neither bullish nor bearish. I follow a straightforward set of rules that are the core of my portfolio management philosophy, focusing on capital preservation and long-term “risk-adjusted” returns.
The current market advance has pushed back to more extreme bullish positioning. How long it can last is anyone’s guess. However, remember that markets ebb and flow around long-term moving averages. When markets rise too far above them, “gravity” tends to take over.
Everyone approaches money management differently. Such is just the way we do it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--What a Trump Second Term Will Look Like For the Markets

As I outlined in yesterday ’ s article , the odds are relatively high that President Trump will secure a second term courtesy of how the legal system handles contested elections .
With that in mind , we need to ask , “ what is the BIG PICTURE outcome for the markets if Trump wins ?
” I believe that if President Trump manages to secure a second Presidential term , the stock market will go into an ENORMOUS bubble .
Because President Trump is OBSESSED with the stock market .
He ’ s mentioned it 54 times on his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s more than once a week !
Because the President knows it ’ s a simple measure of wealth that appeals to the average person .
Talking about boosting incomes or reducing wage disparities sounds nice , but these are vague concepts .
Saying “ stocks are at record highs !
” is a specific measure that anyone can understand and interpret to mean “ people are getting rich.
” The President , for all his flaws , understands sales .
And by talking about stocks non-stop , he ’ s “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he is creating wealth , even if the reality is that the market is rising because the Fed is providing record amounts of liquidity .
Speaking of the Fed , President Trump now effectively decides Fed policy due to his constant bullying via his very same twitter account ( and its 87 million followers ) .
Case in point , take note of how the President hounded the Federal Reserve to ease monetary conditions non-stop throughout 2018 .
The below tweets are two of literally dozens in which the President harangued the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was slow to act , the President even want so far as the float the idea of FIRING Fed Chair Jerome Powell , leaking the plan to Bloomberg in June of 2018 .
I do not expect any of the above issues to change during a Trump second term .
If anything , I would expect President Trump ’ s obsession with stocks to be ever greater .
And this means even more pressure on the Fed to create a bubble Again , I ’ m NOT saying this is a good thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what the President does .
I ’ m simply pointing out how he sees the stock market and what this means for his attitude towards the ultimate driver of stocks : Fed liquidity .
So… if President Trump does win a second term .
What would his obsession with stocks mean price wise ?
Well , the Fed has cut interest rates to ZERO and is now running QE programs equal to $ 125 billion per month .
Moreover , Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed will not attempt to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has experienced a full recovery to levels that existed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic .
And the Fed as a whole stated that it will keep interest rates at ZERO through 2023 .
The last time the Fed held rates at ZERO for years while running aggressive QE programs was from 2008-2015 .
During that time , the S & P 500 nearly TRIPLED .
Currently stocks are up 50 % from the lows March .
If the S & P 500 were to follow a similar move , we ’ d see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S & P 500 rising to over 6,000 over the next five years .
And if things REALLY get out of control , as they did in the late ‘ 90s , we could see the S & P 500 running to 10,000 or higher .
This sounds ridiculous , but this kind of move has happened before .
Indeed , the NASDAQ rose over 140 % in just four years during Bill Clinton ’ s second term as President .
With the S & P 500 around 3,500 today , this would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of 2024 .
Again , this sounds ridiculous , but all bubbles do .
And we know this President more than any other in the last 50 years is obsessed with stocks .
Combine this with a Federal Reserve that is already engaged in the most aggressive QE program in history and suddenly the S & P 500 at 8,000 in four years doesn ’ t seem so ridiculous .
With that in mind , we recently published a special report titled , The MAGA Portfolio : Five Investments That Will Make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In it , we detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term .
Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing , combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability .
We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital .
To pick up your copy please swing by :

As I outlined in yesterday’s article, the odds are relatively high that President Trump will secure a second term courtesy of how the legal system handles contested elections.
With that in mind, we need to ask, “what is the BIG PICTURE outcome for the markets if Trump wins?”
I believe that if President Trump manages to secure a second Presidential term, the stock market will go into an ENORMOUS bubble.
Why?
Because President Trump is OBSESSED with the stock market. He’s mentioned it 54 times on his twitter account this year alone. That’s more than once a week!
Why this obsession?
Because the President knows it’s a simple measure of wealth that appeals to the average person. Talking about boosting incomes or reducing wage disparities sounds nice, but these are vague concepts. Saying “stocks are at record highs!” is a specific measure that anyone can understand and interpret to mean “people are getting rich.”
The President, for all his flaws, understands sales. And by talking about stocks non-stop, he’s “selling” Americans on the idea that he is creating wealth, even if the reality is that the market is rising because the Fed is providing record amounts of liquidity.
Speaking of the Fed, President Trump now effectively decides Fed policy due to his constant bullying via his very same twitter account (and its 87 million followers).
Case in point, take note of how the President hounded the Federal Reserve to ease monetary conditions non-stop throughout 2018. The below tweets are two of literally dozens in which the President harangued the Fed to ease conditions.
When the Fed was slow to act, the President even want so far as the float the idea of FIRING Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leaking the plan to Bloomberg in June of 2018.
I do not expect any of the above issues to change during a Trump second term. If anything, I would expect President Trump’s obsession with stocks to be ever greater. And this means even more pressure on the Fed to create a bubble
Again, I’m NOT saying this is a good thing, nor am I saying I like what the President does. I’m simply pointing out how he sees the stock market and what this means for his attitude towards the ultimate driver of stocks: Fed liquidity.
So… if President Trump does win a second term. What would his obsession with stocks mean price wise?
Well, the Fed has cut interest rates to ZERO and is now running QE programs equal to $125 billion per month. Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed will not attempt to normalize Fed policy until the U.S. economy has experienced a full recovery to levels that existed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. And the Fed as a whole stated that it will keep interest rates at ZERO through 2023.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Yes, 2023.
The last time the Fed held rates at ZERO for years while running aggressive QE programs was from 2008-2015. During that time, the S&P 500 nearly TRIPLED.
Currently stocks are up 50% from the lows March. If the S&P 500 were to follow a similar move, we’d see the mother of all bubbles with the S&P 500 rising to over 6,000 over the next five years.
And if things REALLY get out of control, as they did in the late ‘90s, we could see the S&P 500 running to 10,000 or higher. This sounds ridiculous, but this kind of move has happened before. Indeed, the NASDAQ rose over 140% in just four years during Bill Clinton’s second term as President.
With the S&P 500 around 3,500 today, this would mean a run to 8,400 by the end of 2024.
Again, this sounds ridiculous, but all bubbles do. And we know this President more than any other in the last 50 years is obsessed with stocks. Combine this with a Federal Reserve that is already engaged in the most aggressive QE program in history and suddenly the S&P 500 at 8,000 in four years doesn’t seem so ridiculous.
With that in mind, we recently published a special report titled, The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.
In it, we detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term.
Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.
We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:
phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--JIM TREACHER: Obama Really Knew How to Handle Putin, According to Obama.

Obama Really Knew How to Handle Putin , According to Obama .
Obama then claims that he allowed Putin to rant for 45 minutes without interrupting , as if he had any say in the matter .
And then , Obama claims he debated Putin point-by-point for two hours .
Don ’ t you just love science fiction ?
This anecdote is particularly amusing to students of history , which at this point includes anyone who remembers anything that happened before 5:30 PM yesterday .
All the way back in 2012 , Obama scolded Mitt Romney with this immortal soundbite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dozens of times over the years , and my favorite part is Obama fumbling over his rehearsed talking points .
“ Okay , it was… uh… foreign policies of the 1980s , and then… oh yeah , the social policies of the 1950s… er… ” And that was after Obama ’ s 2009 “ debate ” with Putin .
So I guess Barry thought he had bested his opponent .
But then the 2016 election happened , and suddenly Putin was the Boogeyman again .
Now libs blame the evil Russkies for everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of four years , Russia went from forgotten has-beens to America ’ s # 1 enemy all over again .
And all it took was a Democrat losing an election .
Weird how that works , huh ?
Related : Obama Calls for More Big Tech ‘ Fact-Checking ’ in Wake of Trump Getting 71M Votes .
Former President Barack Obama lamented the fact that President Donald Trump won 71 million votes in the 2020 election , blaming the “ current media environment ” for a supposed lack of an “ informed citizenry.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and “ the tech companies ” to “ inform the public better ” and “ separate truth from fiction.
” Obama said this just as Facebook , Twitter , and legacy media outlets have worked to bury or undermine important stories like the Hunter Biden emails and the irregularities in the 2020 election .
Of course , Obama chooses a venue where he ’ s not going to get fact-checked : “ Obama — who droned weddings & targeted journalists — compares [ Trump ] to a dictator who thinks , ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throw them in jail .
… I can suppress journalists , ’ ” while DNC operative with a lavalier Scott Pelley remains silent .

Obama Really Knew How to Handle Putin, According to Obama.
Obama then claims that he allowed Putin to rant for 45 minutes without interrupting, as if he had any say in the matter. And then, Obama claims he debated Putin point-by-point for two hours. Don’t you just love science fiction? This anecdote is particularly amusing to students of history, which at this point includes anyone who remembers anything that happened before 5:30 PM yesterday. All the way back in 2012, Obama scolded Mitt Romney with this immortal soundbite:
I’ve watched that clip dozens of times over the years, and my favorite part is Obama fumbling over his rehearsed talking points. “Okay, it was… uh… foreign policies of the 1980s, and then… oh yeah, the social policies of the 1950s… er…” And that was after Obama’s 2009 “debate” with Putin. So I guess Barry thought he had bested his opponent. But then the 2016 election happened, and suddenly Putin was the Boogeyman again. Now libs blame the evil Russkies for everything.* Somehow, within the space of four years, Russia went from forgotten has-beens to America’s #1 enemy all over again. And all it took was a Democrat losing an election. Weird how that works, huh?
Related: Obama Calls for More Big Tech ‘Fact-Checking’ in Wake of Trump Getting 71M Votes.
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Former President Barack Obama lamented the fact that President Donald Trump won 71 million votes in the 2020 election, blaming the “current media environment” for a supposed lack of an “informed citizenry.” He called for “the media” and “the tech companies” to “inform the public better” and “separate truth from fiction.” Obama said this just as Facebook, Twitter, and legacy media outlets have worked to bury or undermine important stories like the Hunter Biden emails and the irregularities in the 2020 election.
Of course, Obama chooses a venue where he’s not going to get fact-checked: “Obama — who droned weddings & targeted journalists — compares [Trump] to a dictator who thinks, ‘I can kill people. I can throw them in jail. … I can suppress journalists,’” while DNC operative with a lavalier Scott Pelley remains silent.
h/t Ed


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Lawyer Alan Dershowitz Thinks THIS is the Only Path to Victory for Trump

Lawyer Alan M. Dershowitz believes President Trump only has ONE path to victory .
He predicts the goal of the @ @ @ @ @ t to earn 270 Electoral College votes for the president .
They need to tie @ @ @ @ @ courts to bring BIDEN down below 270 .
If BIDEN drops below 270 , the @ @ @ @ @ goes to the house .
In the Constitution Amendment 12 states that the vote for @ @ @ @ @ house of representatives .
Democrats have the majority in the house but the Constitution goes @ @ @ @ @ gets one vote , not each representative… each state gets one vote for the president @ @ @ @ @ 50 states in the house , of those 50 , 37 are republican so they @ @ @ @ @ ’ t vote any other way .
At that moment a republican congress will officially @ @ @ @ @ next president .
Let that sink in for minute…All legal , why do you think @ @ @ @ @ He knows .

Lawyer Alan M. Dershowitz believes President Trump only has ONE path to victory. He predicts the goal of the Trump legal team isn’t to earn 270 Electoral College votes for the president.
They need to tie up enough states in the courts to bring BIDEN down below 270. If BIDEN drops below 270, the election is null and this goes to the house.
In the Constitution Amendment 12 states that the vote for president will go to the house of representatives. Democrats have the majority in the house but the Constitution goes on… each state in congress gets one vote, not each representative… each state gets one vote for the president. Well, there are 50 states in the house, of those 50, 37 are republican so they vote republican, they can’t vote any other way. At that moment a republican congress will officially and constitutionally vote in the next president. Let that sink in for minute…All legal, why do you think Trump has not conceded. He knows.
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h/t EviL^MusHrooM


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--This thing is going lower than March?

This thing is going lower than March?

This thing is going lower than March — BLACK SWAN – Those who fail to plan, plan to fail! (@RetirementRight) November 16, 2020
Cash levels almost back to recent low. $SPX pic.twitter.com/tQHuXD32g2 — Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) November 17, 2020
Nearly 20% of the U.S.’s largest publicly-traded companies are now considered zombies, meaning they don't earn enough to cover their interest expense. And they’ve added almost $1 trillion of debt to their books since the onset of the pandemic. t.co/lx7W0vCJmA — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 17, 2020
States with highest hospitalization rates per million…
1) South Dakota: 633
2) North Dakota: 525
3) Nebraska: 472
4) Iowa: 441
5) Illinois: 440
6) Montana: 424
7) Missouri: 411
8) Indiana: 411
9) Wisconsin: 391
10) Nevada: 376 pic.twitter.com/0vuZMX3mVe — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 17, 2020
The equity markets can ignore it for a while, but I just saw a refinancing in Manhattan, in the financial district, that was done at $450 a square foot & the previous transaction was $750 a square foot. This is going to be hard to ignore. – Paraphrasing Chanos on CRE @RealVision pic.twitter.com/fDTLCsVw96 — Rudy Havenstein, 95% effective. (@RudyHavenstein) November 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Chicago mayor urged Chicagoans to stay home and avoid large crowds one week after she participated i

Chicago mayor urged Chicagoans to stay home and avoid large crowds one week after she participated in a large rally celebrating the election of Joe Biden.

Chicago mayor @ LoriLightfoot urged Chicagoans to stay home and avoid large crowds one week after she participated in a @ @ @ @ @ of Joe Biden.t.co/pYy6gBymkD pic.twitter.com/T8HVTVSFIJ

Chicago mayor @LoriLightfoot urged Chicagoans to stay home and avoid large crowds one week after she participated in a large rally celebrating the election of Joe Biden.t.co/pYy6gBymkD pic.twitter.com/T8HVTVSFIJ
— Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) November 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--It’s almost like these governments were all working together somehow

There appears to be some kind of international organization running the governments of what once we sovereign nations .

There appears to be some kind of international organization running the governments of what once we sovereign nations.
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h/t SR-71A_Blackbird


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--SEC Pursues Plan Requiring Chinese Firms to Use Auditors Overseen by U.S: Under proposal, companies

SEC Pursues Plan Requiring Chinese Firms to Use Auditors Overseen by U.S: Under proposal, companies would be shut out of U.S. exchanges if they don’t comply

WASHINGTON—Chinese companies with shares traded in America would be required to use auditors overseen by U.S. regulators or face being kicked off exchanges under a plan being drafted by regulators , according to people familiar with the matter .
The proposal , which is likely to be issued for public comment in December , would address the disparate treatment that applies to Chinese companies going public in the U.S .
The firms have long been able to sell shares here , yet their auditors violate a key investor protection : China hasn ’ t allowed their work to be inspected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a special watchdog—the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board—since the accounting scandals that took down Enron Corp. nearly 20 years ago .
The Securities and Exchange Commission has taken different tacks to try to get China ’ s cooperation with the PCAOB , from suing its audit firms to get information on fraudulent companies , to negotiating with Chinese regulators and issuing public warnings to U.S. investors about the problem .
Total funds raised by Chinese companies through U.S.initial public offerings Source : S & P Global Market Intelligence Note : 2020 figure is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 $ 14 Now , the SEC ’ s proposal would put the onus on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq NDAQ -0.23 % Stock Market to require compliance with the audit inspections—or bar a new Chinese company from listing .
Those with shares already traded here would have a few years to comply before possibly losing their listing .

www.wsj.com/articles/sec-pursues-plan-requiring-chinese-firms-to-use-auditors-overseen-by-u-s-11605614403
WASHINGTON—Chinese companies with shares traded in America would be required to use auditors overseen by U.S. regulators or face being kicked off exchanges under a plan being drafted by regulators, according to people familiar with the matter.
The proposal, which is likely to be issued for public comment in December, would address the disparate treatment that applies to Chinese companies going public in the U.S. The firms have long been able to sell shares here, yet their auditors violate a key investor protection: China hasn’t allowed their work to be inspected.
Auditor supervision has been overseen by a special watchdog—the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board—since the accounting scandals that took down Enron Corp. nearly 20 years ago. The Securities and Exchange Commission has taken different tacks to try to get China’s cooperation with the PCAOB, from suing its audit firms to get information on fraudulent companies, to negotiating with Chinese regulators and issuing public warnings to U.S. investors about the problem.
Total funds raised by Chinese companies through U.S.initial public offerings Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Note: 2020 figure is calendar year to date. .billion 2016 ’20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 $14 Now, the SEC’s proposal would put the onus on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq NDAQ -0.23% Stock Market to require compliance with the audit inspections—or bar a new Chinese company from listing. Those with shares already traded here would have a few years to comply before possibly losing their listing.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Boy Scouts faces 82,000 sexual abuses claims that came out during bankruptcy

This is a disgusting amount , I can only imagine what is hiding in groups like “ big brother , @ @ @ @ @ predators usually try to get involved places where they have easy access to their prey

This is a disgusting amount, I can only imagine what is hiding in groups like “big brother, big sister” ect, predators usually try to get involved places where they have easy access to their prey
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h/t Typoqueen00


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Underwater Cities Mean Ancient Historical Time Lines Are Incorrect

Submerged prehistoric settlements in both the Bland and Mediterranean seas show that these areas were above water 6000 years prior @ @ @ @ @ at the time by classic academia are off by 1000 years .
Additionally erosion patterns @ @ @ @ @ in India indicate a far older monolithic structure than academia will allow .
Out of @ @ @ @ @ look .

Submerged prehistoric settlements in both the Bland and Mediterranean seas show that these areas were above water 6000 years prior, but sea levels shown at the time by classic academia are off by 1000 years. Additionally erosion patterns at the Kailash Temple complex in India indicate a far older monolithic structure than academia will allow. Out of time artifact where ever we look.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Commie Chicago Mayor Just Rolled Out New Laws for Thanksgiving EVERYONE is Laughing About

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports , Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Thursday issued a stay-at-home advisory effective Monday @ @ @ @ @ to “ rising Covid-19 cases .
”

Cristina Laila from The Gateway Pundit reports, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Thursday issued a stay-at-home advisory effective Monday at 6:00 AM in response to “rising Covid-19 cases.”
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www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--China Joins World’s Largest Trading Bloc, U.S. EXCLUDED! Reserve Currency Status Remain?

More money is flowing into U.S. tech stocks right now in 2020 .
We have seen an accelerating trend of @ @ @ @ @ more debt , more money .
Investors have been trying to buy more equities and @ @ @ @ @ dollar is expected to decline .

More money is flowing into U.S. tech stocks right now in 2020. We have seen an accelerating trend of more growth in stocks, more debt, more money. Investors have been trying to buy more equities and the value of the U.S. dollar is expected to decline.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Adam Schiff, MSNBC’s Joy Reid PANIC Over Republican-Led Investigations

Bronson Stocking from Townhall reports , Reports on Hunter Biden ’ s abandoned laptop raise serious concerns regarding China ’ @ @ @ @ @ Vice President Joe Biden .
The prospect of a Communist China or other foreign entities @ @ @ @ @ Biden family needs to be thoroughly investigated by Congress .

Bronson Stocking from Townhall reports, Reports on Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop raise serious concerns regarding China’s ability to blackmail former Vice President Joe Biden. The prospect of a Communist China or other foreign entities possessing compromising materials on the Biden family needs to be thoroughly investigated by Congress.
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townhall.com/tipsheet/bronson…


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--BOOM! BBC Gets OWNED By Trump Supporter with EPIC Oneliner

Cassandra Fairbanks from The Gateway Pundit reports , BBC had no idea what they were in for when they invited @ @ @ @ @ air for an interview following the massive Trump rally in DC on Saturday , where @ @ @ @ @

Cassandra Fairbanks from The Gateway Pundit reports, BBC had no idea what they were in for when they invited XStrategies CEO Alex Bruesewitz on air for an interview following the massive Trump rally in DC on Saturday, where he was a speaker.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--The media puts this on their covers and simultaneously refers to it as a conspiracy theory that is t

The media puts this on their covers and simultaneously refers to it as a conspiracy theory that is totally not happening at all…

The media puts this on their covers and simultaneously refers to it as a conspiracy theory that is totally not @ @ @ @ @ 're to be delegitimized and disenfranchised if you even say a word about it .
@

The media puts this on their covers and simultaneously refers to it as a conspiracy theory that is totally not happening at all and you're to be delegitimized and disenfranchised if you even say a word about it. pic.twitter.com/nOMZOL5pH2
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) November 16, 2020