investmentwatchblog--2020-11-09--Biden Stole Election. Here’s How to Win it Back

Mr. President , there ’ s only one way to win this now .
You need proof .
Hard evidence .
And witnesses who participated in the robbery .
You need to create a new reality show , “ Who Wants to Be an Instant Democrat Millionaire…and Get Full Immunity ?
” That ’ s one hell of a reality show title .
That offer will be a game changer .
That offer will change America ’ s future .
That offer will save capitalism .
That offer will save the Silent Majority and the great American middle class .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that offer in a moment .
But first… Back three weeks ago , I made an interesting prediction on my national radio show , and also made it in writing on my social media pages .
I predicted President Trump would win a huge electoral victory on Election Night ; Democrats would try to steal it away from him ; we ’ d spend many weeks or months in court ; eventually wind up at the Supreme Court ; suffer mass unrest and riots during one of the most tough , divisive periods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then finally Trump would win the Presidency with a Supreme Court ruling , led by our newest hero and champion of conservatism , Amy Coney Barrett .
Let ’ s look at the first part of my prediction .
Trump did win an Election Night electoral landslide .
Before Democrats stole it away with massive fraud in key states , in the middle of the night , with no GOP witnesses allowed in the room .
Trump won Florida , Ohio , Texas , Georgia , North Carolina and the entire Midwest- Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What more do you want from the guy ?
Isn ’ t that an electoral landslide ?
How can any Republican lose with that hand ?
Plus , Trump received about 70 million votes .
That ’ s the most in history .
Trump added a remarkable 6 million new votes since his victory in 2016 .
What more can a man do ?
But he was never going to win .
Not with 80 million votes , not with 90 million , not with 100 million .
You name the number .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not with Democrat voter fraud , ballot harvesting , mail-in ballots and deadlines allowed well past Election Day .
Trump and the GOP never had a chance .
Not if you play it straight and the other guys are crooked .
Remember the movie “ Casino ?
” The mafia was alone in the “ count rooms ” of casinos .
It ’ s no shocker the IRS got paid very little .
The mafia was the only ones allowed in the room .
Everyone else got screwed .
This is the political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these are “ vote count rooms.
” And the Democrat Crime Family is the only one allowed in the room .
And they can make up any number of votes they want , with no one watching .
Just like the mafia , they do all their best work in the dark , in the middle of the night , when honest people are sleeping .
They steal entire states .
Now they ’ ve stolen an entire country .
Back to my solution .
We can still win .
But there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to beat them .
It ’ s all about the Benjamins .
It ’ s all about greed .
It ’ s all about the carrot versus the stick .
There ’ s no other way to win at the Supreme Court except to bring hard evidence that the election was stolen by Democrats .
The only way to get that is to bring witnesses to testify , who participated in the scam and know explicit details .
President Trump must offer $ 1 million each to the first 100 Democrat participants in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forward .
We ’ ll create 100 instant Democrat millionaires for hard evidence , photos , videos and testimony that leads to a Supreme Court decision overturning this election .
Along with $ 1 million to each of 100 witnesses , they each also receive full DOJ immunity .
But if you don ’ t come forward first , everyone else who participated is going to prison for life .
Because the stealing of a presidency is treason .
Keep in mind , $ 100 million is “ chump change ” to GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much in loose change on any given Saturday night at Maralago .
Michael Bloomberg spent $ 100 million just to try to win Florida .
What ’ s $ 100 million for a group of GOP billionaire donors to ante up , in order to save America , American Exceptionalism and capitalism ?
Mr. President , do it now .
This minute .
Offer a reward so big it gets the media ’ s attention and everyone ’ s imagination .
$ 100 million is good .
Perhaps a quarter billion is even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ships .
The Demo-rats will come out of the woodwork to become instant millionaires .
Plus , full DOJ immunity , to testify where the bodies are buried .
Get busy Mr. President .
The clock is ticking .
Time is short .
You can ’ t win at the Supremes unless you have hard evidence and testimony from the participants in the scam to steal the presidency .
Make the announcement .
Scream it from the highest mountain .
“ Who Wants to Be an Instant Democrat Millionaire ?
And Get Full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life .
That ’ s an offer no one can refuse .

by Wayne Root
Mr. President, there’s only one way to win this now. You need proof. Hard evidence. And witnesses who participated in the robbery.
You need to create a new reality show, “Who Wants to Be an Instant Democrat Millionaire…and Get Full Immunity?”
That’s one hell of a reality show title. That offer will be a game changer. That offer will change America’s future. That offer will save capitalism. That offer will save the Silent Majority and the great American middle class.
I’ll explain the details of that offer in a moment. But first…
Back three weeks ago, I made an interesting prediction on my national radio show, and also made it in writing on my social media pages. I predicted President Trump would win a huge electoral victory on Election Night; Democrats would try to steal it away from him; we’d spend many weeks or months in court; eventually wind up at the Supreme Court; suffer mass unrest and riots during one of the most tough, divisive periods in America’s history; and then finally Trump would win the Presidency with a Supreme Court ruling, led by our newest hero and champion of conservatism, Amy Coney Barrett.
Let’s look at the first part of my prediction. Trump did win an Election Night electoral landslide. Before Democrats stole it away with massive fraud in key states, in the middle of the night, with no GOP witnesses allowed in the room. Trump won Florida, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and the entire Midwest- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. What more do you want from the guy? Isn’t that an electoral landslide? How can any Republican lose with that hand?
Plus, Trump received about 70 million votes. That’s the most in history. Trump added a remarkable 6 million new votes since his victory in 2016. What more can a man do?
But he was never going to win. Not with 80 million votes, not with 90 million, not with 100 million. You name the number. It was never going to matter. Not with Democrat voter fraud, ballot harvesting, mail-in ballots and deadlines allowed well past Election Day. Trump and the GOP never had a chance. Not if you play it straight and the other guys are crooked.
Remember the movie “Casino?” The mafia was alone in the “count rooms” of casinos. It’s no shocker the IRS got paid very little. The mafia was the only ones allowed in the room. Everyone else got screwed.
This is the political version of casino count rooms. Except these are “vote count rooms.” And the Democrat Crime Family is the only one allowed in the room. And they can make up any number of votes they want, with no one watching.
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Just like the mafia, they do all their best work in the dark, in the middle of the night, when honest people are sleeping. They steal entire states. Now they’ve stolen an entire country.
Back to my solution. We can still win. But there’s only one way for President Trump to beat them. It’s all about the Benjamins. It’s all about greed. It’s all about the carrot versus the stick. There’s no other way to win at the Supreme Court except to bring hard evidence that the election was stolen by Democrats.
The only way to get that is to bring witnesses to testify, who participated in the scam and know explicit details.
President Trump must offer $1 million each to the first 100 Democrat participants in the stealing of the election who come forward. We’ll create 100 instant Democrat millionaires for hard evidence, photos, videos and testimony that leads to a Supreme Court decision overturning this election.
Along with $1 million to each of 100 witnesses, they each also receive full DOJ immunity. But if you don’t come forward first, everyone else who participated is going to prison for life. Because the stealing of a presidency is treason.
Keep in mind, $100 million is “chump change” to GOP billionaire donors. There’s that much in loose change on any given Saturday night at Maralago. Michael Bloomberg spent $100 million just to try to win Florida. What’s $100 million for a group of GOP billionaire donors to ante up, in order to save America, American Exceptionalism and capitalism?
Get Sheldon Adelson on speed dial.
Mr. President, do it now. This minute. Offer a reward so big it gets the media’s attention and everyone’s imagination. $100 million is good. Perhaps a quarter billion is even better. The rats always desert sinking ships. The Demo-rats will come out of the woodwork to become instant millionaires. Plus, full DOJ immunity, to testify where the bodies are buried.
Get busy Mr. President. The clock is ticking. Time is short. You can’t win at the Supremes unless you have hard evidence and testimony from the participants in the scam to steal the presidency.
Make the announcement. Scream it from the highest mountain. “Who Wants to Be an Instant Democrat Millionaire? And Get Full Immunity.” Or go to prison for life.
That’s an offer no one can refuse.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-09--Georgia to Decide the Fate of the Nation?

In Georgia , both U.S. Senate races will head to a runoff election in early January since no candidate surpassed @ @ @ @ @ cast .
Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff will no go into @ @ @ @ @ the Senate to the Democrats .
The other race , a special Senate election called @ @ @ @ @ , will feature Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler defending her seat against Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock @ @ @ @ @ control of the Senate , we might as well turn out the lights .
They @ @ @ @ @ Supreme Court and effectively strip it of jurisdiction to even hear various cases .
You @ @ @ @ @ as they created this new Great Reset .
Like real Marxists , they will do @ @ @ @ @ not just Thanksgiving , but Christmas and most holidays .
They are trying to strip @ @ @ @ @ they always do throughout history .

by Martin Armstrong
In Georgia, both U.S. Senate races will head to a runoff election in early January since no candidate surpassed 50% of the votes cast. Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff will no go into a runoff that could flip the Senate to the Democrats.
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The other race, a special Senate election called for a runoff days earlier, will feature Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler defending her seat against Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock.
If the Democrats get control of the Senate, we might as well turn out the lights. They are vowing to stack the Supreme Court and effectively strip it of jurisdiction to even hear various cases. You will see your jobs elaborate as they created this new Great Reset. Like real Marxists, they will do their best to shut down not just Thanksgiving, but Christmas and most holidays. They are trying to strip us of our culture as they always do throughout history.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-09--There has been an awakening in Europe. Italy, Spain, Germany, Slovenia, France protesting against Co

There has been an awakening in Europe. Italy, Spain, Germany, Slovenia, France protesting against Covid lockdowns!

Poland will join very likely Mass civil disobedience is happening all across Italy

The Leipzig anti-#lockdown protest in Germany must be one of the biggest protests seen. Enormous.#Deutschland #lockdown2 t.co/oqWXKJeHaq — Fiery Archer (@Fiery_Archer) November 7, 2020
Germany
France
Running street battles with police during anti Coronavirus lockdown protests in Slovenia yesterday, water cannons were used by officers to disperse the crowds. pic.twitter.com/OmeKuw6se4 — Quematumascarilla🔥2🔥 (@adrianses) November 7, 2020
Slovenia
Poland will join very likely
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NWO German police vs peaceful anti lockdown protesters in Leipzig Germany
Italy
Mass civil disobedience is happening all across Italy
Disobbedienza civile di massa: Napoli non chiude. Napoli se ne frega dei #Dpcm di Conte. "Napule è mille culure…" #Lockdown #RadioSavana pic.twitter.com/kEkR3TGIY7 — RadioSavana (@RadioSavana) November 7, 2020
Nella rossa Bologna gruppi dei centri sociali protestano contro lockdown e governo Conte: violenti scontri con la Polizia. Anche la sinistra che ha votato e supportato il governo Conte ora li si rivolta contro. Siamo ai titoli di coda per Conte. #Lockdown #RadioSavana pic.twitter.com/tmYgkFtWvt — RadioSavana (@RadioSavana) November 7, 2020
h/t Pillar the Winged Hussar


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-09--The horse has been led to water. It can’t be forced to drink.

The horse has been led to water .
It can ’ t be forced to drink .
t.co/ZxvzHEaOrc

The horse has been led to water. It can’t be forced to drink. t.co/ZxvzHEaOrc
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) November 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--No Wonder the Super-Rich Love Inflation

No Wonder the Super-Rich Love Inflation

Asset inflation benefits the super-rich more than anyone else because they own the vast majority of these assets .
With the reflation euphoria running full blast , maybe central banks will finally get all that inflation they ’ ve been pining for .
So let ’ s ask cui bono–who will benefit from inflation ?
The Super-Rich love inflation and the money-printing that generates it .
Longtime correspondent Michael M. explains the dynamic behind billionaires ’ adoration of inflation : “ Why does a game of Monopoly work ?
Because there is a zero-boundary for every player ’ s net @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit ( so negative net worth is allowed without limit ) , the game becomes pointless .
Is there also an upper bound at Monopoly ?
Well , the bank at Monopoly can run out of money , I had that happen a few times while playing .
But we didn ’ t treat it as an upper boundary , but wrote the richest player an IOU and took that amount of cash bills from him and put them back in the bank to continue .
Rolling it around in my head , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Confiscate the same amount from every ( remaining ) player and put it back in the bank instead ?
That would be pointless if most wealth is with one player and you want the game to continue .
Another option is to go Keynesian [ in its true practical implementation ] and confiscate 10 % of each player ’ s net worth to “ re-liquidate ” the bank .
This is very similar to “ printing money , ” just more explicit .
Now we ’ re getting somewhere .
But that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , so why not go with progressive confiscation rates , and take a higher percentage of the wealthier players ’ net worth ?
Wait a second , did I just stumble over the reason why the filthy rich love Keynesian economics ?
Because printing money only “ taxes ” everybody linearly , which is much better for the rich than progressive taxation , which is the global standard in income tax policies.
” Let ’ s explore this profound insight a bit more .
Modern Monetary Theory ( MMT ) holds that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as they want without any adverse effects .
From this , it ’ s a small step to sending every household a monthly stipend ( Universal Basic Income–UBI ) paid by freshly issued currency .
Given the unfairness of the income tax system , as the super-rich buy tax breaks , tax shelters and subsidies via lobbying and political contributions , it ’ s just one more tiny step to eliminating income taxes entirely and printing all the money the state needs .
Why would this enrich the super-rich and impoverish the rest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the goods and services being generated creates inflation , which is a “ tax ” on all cash and wages , both of which have been losing ground for decades .
Inflation is best defined as a loss of purchasing power .
With 10 % inflation , $ 1 only buys 90 cents of real-world goods and services .
Thus it ’ s the exact equivalent of a 10 % tax not just on wages but on all cash .
The super-rich don ’ t rely on wages or cash savings ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with inflation .
The super-rich own apartments , so they can jack rents up 10 % , matching inflation .
They own assets which tend to retain their purchasing power even as inflation reduces the purchasing power of cash and wages .
Markets place a premium on any assets that keep pace or outpace inflation , so the value of the assets owned by the super-rich soar , further enriching the few who own these assets .
Asset inflation benefits the super-rich more than anyone else because they own the vast majority of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inflation it generates is a win-win for the rich .
The “ tax ” rate of inflation / money-printing barely touches their incomes or wealth , both of which are tied to assets that rise along with inflation .
All that money-printing pushes the value of their assets higher , making them even richer , which the inflation “ tax ” impoverishes everyone who depends on wages and cash .
No wonder the super-rich love MMT , money-printing and Keynesian giveaways of freshly printed currency–inflation makes them richer while it makes everyone else @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s analogy of a Monopoly game : inflation takes 10 % of every player ’ s cash , but doesn ’ t touch their property holdings .
So the wealthiest players ’ net worth is barely dinted while players with fewer assets will find it difficult to survive as their cash is “ taxed ” away by inflation .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Asset inflation benefits the super-rich more than anyone else because they own the vast majority of these assets.
With the reflation euphoria running full blast, maybe central banks will finally get all that inflation they’ve been pining for. So let’s ask cui bono–who will benefit from inflation?
The Super-Rich love inflation and the money-printing that generates it. Longtime correspondent Michael M. explains the dynamic behind billionaires’ adoration of inflation:
“Why does a game of Monopoly work? Because there is a zero-boundary for every player’s net worth.
If you were given endless credit (so negative net worth is allowed without limit), the game becomes pointless.
Is there also an upper bound at Monopoly?
Well, the bank at Monopoly can run out of money, I had that happen a few times while playing. But we didn’t treat it as an upper boundary, but wrote the richest player an IOU and took that amount of cash bills from him and put them back in the bank to continue.
Rolling it around in my head, how else could you solve that problem? Confiscate the same amount from every (remaining) player and put it back in the bank instead? That would be pointless if most wealth is with one player and you want the game to continue.
Another option is to go Keynesian [in its true practical implementation] and confiscate 10% of each player’s net worth to “re-liquidate” the bank. This is very similar to “printing money,” just more explicit. Now we’re getting somewhere.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
But that’s linear (a fixed percentage), so why not go with progressive confiscation rates, and take a higher percentage of the wealthier players’ net worth?
Wait a second, did I just stumble over the reason why the filthy rich love Keynesian economics? Because printing money only “taxes” everybody linearly, which is much better for the rich than progressive taxation, which is the global standard in income tax policies.”
Let’s explore this profound insight a bit more. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) holds that central banks/states can print as much money as they want without any adverse effects. From this, it’s a small step to sending every household a monthly stipend (Universal Basic Income–UBI) paid by freshly issued currency.
Given the unfairness of the income tax system, as the super-rich buy tax breaks, tax shelters and subsidies via lobbying and political contributions, it’s just one more tiny step to eliminating income taxes entirely and printing all the money the state needs.
Why would this enrich the super-rich and impoverish the rest of us? Printing money in excess of the goods and services being generated creates inflation, which is a “tax” on all cash and wages, both of which have been losing ground for decades.
Inflation is best defined as a loss of purchasing power. With 10% inflation, $1 only buys 90 cents of real-world goods and services. Thus it’s the exact equivalent of a 10% tax not just on wages but on all cash.
The super-rich don’t rely on wages or cash savings; they own productive assets whose yields rise with inflation. The super-rich own apartments, so they can jack rents up 10%, matching inflation. They own assets which tend to retain their purchasing power even as inflation reduces the purchasing power of cash and wages.
Markets place a premium on any assets that keep pace or outpace inflation, so the value of the assets owned by the super-rich soar, further enriching the few who own these assets.
Asset inflation benefits the super-rich more than anyone else because they own the vast majority of these assets. So money-printing and the inflation it generates is a win-win for the rich. The “tax” rate of inflation / money-printing barely touches their incomes or wealth, both of which are tied to assets that rise along with inflation. All that money-printing pushes the value of their assets higher, making them even richer, which the inflation “tax” impoverishes everyone who depends on wages and cash.
No wonder the super-rich love MMT, money-printing and Keynesian giveaways of freshly printed currency–inflation makes them richer while it makes everyone else poorer. Going back to Michael’s analogy of a Monopoly game: inflation takes 10% of every player’s cash, but doesn’t touch their property holdings. So the wealthiest players’ net worth is barely dinted while players with fewer assets will find it difficult to survive as their cash is “taxed” away by inflation.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--Hannity EXPOSES the Media For What They REFUSE to Let YOU See

Jim Hoft from The Gateway Pundit reports , President Donald Trump delivered remarks on Thursday evening on his current standing @ @ @ @ @ fraud and irregularities in Democratic strongholds .
During the president ’ s press conference NBC @ @ @ @ @ away from his remarks and then accused him of lying to the American people .

Jim Hoft from The Gateway Pundit reports, President Donald Trump delivered remarks on Thursday evening on his current standing in the elections and reported fraud and irregularities in Democratic strongholds. During the president’s press conference NBC, ABC and CBS cut away from his remarks and then accused him of lying to the American people.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--End the Government’s War on America’s Military Veterans

by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute The 2020 presidential election may be over , but nothing has really changed .
The U.S. government still poses the greatest threat to our freedoms .
More than terrorism , more than domestic extremism , more than gun violence and organized crime , even more than the perceived threat posed by any single politician , the U.S. government remains a greater menace to the life , liberty and property of its citizens than any of the so-called dangers from which the government claims to protect us .
This threat is especially pronounced for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that portion of the population that exercises their First Amendment right to speak out against government wrongdoing .
Consider : we raise our young people on a steady diet of militarism and war , sell them on the idea that defending freedom abroad by serving in the military is their patriotic duty , then when they return home , bruised and battle-scarred and committed to defending their freedoms at home , we often treat them like criminals merely for exercising those rights they risked their lives to defend .
The government even has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s veterans : Operation Vigilant Eagle .
As first reported by the Wall Street Journal , this Department of Homeland Security ( DHS ) program tracks military veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan and characterizes them as extremists and potential domestic terrorist threats because they may be “ disgruntled , disillusioned or suffering from the psychological effects of war.
” Coupled with the DHS ’ dual reports on Rightwing and Leftwing “ Extremism , ” which broadly define extremists as individuals , military veterans and groups “ that are mainly antigovernment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or local authority , or rejecting government authority entirely , ” these tactics bode ill for anyone seen as opposing the government .
Yet the government is not merely targeting individuals who are voicing their discontent so much as it is taking aim at individuals trained in military warfare .
Don ’ t be fooled by the fact that the DHS has gone extremely quiet about Operation Vigilant Eagle .
Where there ’ s smoke , there ’ s bound to be fire .
And the government ’ s efforts to target military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ anti-government ” make clear that something is afoot .
In recent years , military servicemen and women have found themselves increasingly targeted for surveillance , censorship , threatened with incarceration or involuntary commitment , labeled as extremists and/or mentally ill , and stripped of their Second Amendment rights .
In light of the government ’ s efforts to lay the groundwork to weaponize the public ’ s biomedical data and predict who might pose a threat to public safety based on mental health sensor data ( a convenient means by which to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , encounters with the police could get even more deadly , especially if those involved have a mental illness or disability coupled with a military background .
Incredibly , as part of a proposal being considered by the Trump Administration , a new government agency HARPA ( a healthcare counterpart to the Pentagon ’ s research and development arm DARPA ) will take the lead in identifying and targeting “ signs ” of mental illness or violent inclinations among the populace by using artificial intelligence to collect data from Apple Watches , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These tactics are not really new .
Many times throughout history in totalitarian regimes , such governments have declared dissidents mentally ill and unfit for society as a means of rendering them disempowering them .
As Pulitzer Prize-winning author Anne Applebaum observes in Gulag : A History : “ The exile of prisoners to a distant place , where they can ‘ pay their debt to society , ’ make themselves useful , and not contaminate others with their ideas or their criminal acts , is a practice as old as civilization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Greece sent their dissidents off to distant colonies .
Socrates chose death over the torment of exile from Athens .
The poet Ovid was exiled to a fetid port on the Black Sea.
” For example , government officials in the Cold War-era Soviet Union often used psychiatric hospitals as prisons in order to isolate political prisoners from the rest of society , discredit their ideas , and break them physically and mentally through the use of electric shocks , drugs and various medical procedures .
Insisting that “ ideas about a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by personalities with a paranoid structure , ” the psychiatric community actually went so far as to provide the government with a diagnosis suitable for locking up such freedom-oriented activists .
In addition to declaring political dissidents mentally unsound , Russian officials also made use of an administrative process for dealing with individuals who were considered a bad influence on others or troublemakers .
This age-old practice by which despotic regimes eliminate their critics or potential adversaries by declaring them mentally ill and locking them up in psychiatric wards for extended periods of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China .
What is particularly unnerving , however , is how this practice of eliminating or undermining potential critics , including military veterans , is happening with increasing frequency in the United States .
Remember , the National Defense Authorization Act ( NDAA ) opened the door for the government to detain as a threat to national security anyone viewed as a troublemaker .
According to government guidelines for identifying domestic extremists—a word used interchangeably with terrorists—technically , anyone exercising their First Amendment rights in order to criticize the government qualifies .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be flagged as potentially anti-government in a government database somewhere—Main Core , for example—that identifies and tracks individuals who aren ’ t inclined to march in lockstep to the government ’ s dictates .
In fact , as the Washington Post reports , communities are being mapped and residents assigned a color-coded threat score—green , yellow or red—so police are forewarned about a person ’ s potential inclination to be a troublemaker depending on whether they ’ ve had a career in the military , posted a comment perceived as threatening on Facebook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or know someone who knows someone who might have committed a crime .
The case of Brandon Raub is a prime example of Operation Vigilant Eagle in action .
Raub , a 26-year-old decorated Marine , actually found himself interrogated by government agents about his views on government corruption , arrested with no warning , labeled mentally ill for subscribing to so-called “ conspiratorial ” views about the government , detained against his will in a psych ward for standing by his views , and isolated from his family , friends and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a swarm of local police , Secret Service and FBI agents arrived at Raub ’ s Virginia home , asking to speak with him about posts he had made on his Facebook page made up of song lyrics , political opinions and dialogue used in a political thriller virtual card game .
Among the posts cited as troublesome were lyrics to a song by a rap group and Raub ’ s views , shared increasingly by a number of Americans , that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an inside job .
After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explanation , levying any charges against Raub or reading him his rights , Raub was then handcuffed and transported to police headquarters , then to a medical center , where he was held against his will due to alleged concerns that his Facebook posts were “ terrorist in nature.
” Outraged onlookers filmed the arrest and posted the footage to YouTube , where it quickly went viral .
Meanwhile , in a kangaroo court hearing that turned a deaf ear to Raub ’ s explanations about the fact that his Facebook posts were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was sentenced to up to 30 days ’ further confinement in a psychiatric ward .
Thankfully , The Rutherford Institute came to Raub ’ s assistance , which combined with heightened media attention , brought about his release and may have helped prevent Raub from being successfully “ disappeared ” by the government .
Even so , within days of Raub being seized and forcibly held in a VA psych ward , news reports started surfacing of other veterans having similar experiences .
“ Oppositional defiance disorder ” ( ODD ) is another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the status quo .
As journalist Anthony Martin explains , an ODD diagnosis Frankly , based on how well my personality and my military service in the U.S. Armed Forces fit with this description of “ oppositional defiance disorder , ” I ’ m sure there ’ s a file somewhere with my name on it .
That the government is using the charge of mental illness as the means by which to immobilize ( and disarm ) these veterans is diabolical .
With one stroke of a magistrate ’ s pen , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , locked away against their will , and stripped of their constitutional rights .
If it were just being classified as “ anti-government , ” that would be one thing .
Unfortunately , anyone with a military background and training is also now being viewed as a heightened security threat by police who are trained to shoot first and ask questions later .
Feeding this perception of veterans as ticking time bombs in need of intervention , the Justice Department launched a pilot program in 2012 aimed at training SWAT teams to deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavily armed combat veterans .
Police encounters with military veterans often escalate very quickly into an explosive and deadly situation , especially when SWAT teams are involved .
For example , Jose Guerena , a Marine who served in two tours in Iraq , was killed after an Arizona SWAT team kicked open the door of his home during a mistaken drug raid and opened fire .
Thinking his home was being invaded by criminals , Guerena told his wife and child to hide in a closet , grabbed a gun and waited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He never fired his weapon .
In fact , the safety was still on his gun when he was killed .
The SWAT officers , however , not as restrained , fired 70 rounds of ammunition at Guerena—23 of those bullets made contact .
Apart from his military background , Guerena had had no prior criminal record , and the police found nothing illegal in his home .
John Edward Chesney , a 62-year-old Vietnam veteran , was killed by a SWAT team allegedly responding to a call that the Army veteran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ window waving what looked like a semi-automatic rifle .
SWAT officers locked down Chesney ’ s street , took up positions around his home , and fired 12 rounds into Chesney ’ s apartment window .
It turned out that the gun Chesney reportedly pointed at police from three stories up was a “ realistic-looking mock assault rifle.
” Ramon Hooks ’ encounter with a Houston SWAT team did not end as tragically , but it very easily could have .
Hooks , a 25-year-old Iraq war veteran , was using an air @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Homeland Security Agent , allegedly house shopping in the area , reported him as an active shooter .
It wasn ’ t long before the quiet neighborhood was transformed into a war zone , with dozens of cop cars , an armored vehicle and heavily armed police .
Hooks was arrested , his air rifle pellets and toy gun confiscated , and charges filed against him for “ criminal mischief.
” Given the government ’ s increasing view of veterans as potential domestic terrorists , it makes one think twice about government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ designation on their drivers ’ licenses and ID cards .
Hailed by politicians as a way to “ make it easier for military veterans to access discounts from retailers , restaurants , hotels and vendors across the state , ” it will also make it that much easier for the government to identify and target veterans who dare to challenge the status quo .
Remember : no one is spared in a police state .
Eventually , as I make clear in my book Battlefield America : The War on the American People @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It stands to reason that if the government can ’ t be bothered to abide by its constitutional mandate to respect the citizenry ’ s rights—whether it ’ s the right to be free from government surveillance and censorship , the right to due process and fair hearings , the right to be free from roadside strip searches and militarized police , or the right to peacefully assemble and protest and exercise our right to free speech—then why should anyone expect the government to treat our nation ’ s veterans with respect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to end the government ’ s war on the American people , and that includes military veterans .
Certainly , veterans have enough physical and psychological war wounds to overcome without adding the government to the mix .
Although the U.S. boasts more than 20 million veterans who have served in World War II through the present day , large numbers of veterans are impoverished , unemployed , traumatized mentally and physically , struggling with depression , suicide , and marital stress , homeless , subjected to sub-par treatment at clinics and hospitals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paperwork piles up within Veterans Administration offices .
At least 60,000 veterans died by suicide between 2008 and 2017 .
On average , 6,000 veterans kill themselves every year , and the numbers are on the rise .
The plight of veterans today—and their treatment at the hands of the U.S. government—remains America ’ s badge of shame .
So here ’ s a suggestion : if you really want to do something to show your respect and appreciation for the nation ’ s veterans , why not skip the parades and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freedoms that those veterans swore to protect—by pushing back against the government ’ s tyranny .
It ’ s time the rest of the nation did its part to safeguard the freedoms we too often take for granted .
Constitutional attorney and author John W. Whitehead is founder and president of .
His new book Battlefield America : The War on the American People is available at .
Whitehead can be contacted at johnw @ rutherford.org .

by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute
“For soldiers … coming home is more lethal than being in combat.” ― Brené Brown, research professor at the University of Houston
The 2020 presidential election may be over, but nothing has really changed.
The U.S. government still poses the greatest threat to our freedoms.
More than terrorism, more than domestic extremism, more than gun violence and organized crime, even more than the perceived threat posed by any single politician, the U.S. government remains a greater menace to the life, liberty and property of its citizens than any of the so-called dangers from which the government claims to protect us.
This threat is especially pronounced for America’s military veterans, especially that portion of the population that exercises their First Amendment right to speak out against government wrongdoing.
Consider: we raise our young people on a steady diet of militarism and war, sell them on the idea that defending freedom abroad by serving in the military is their patriotic duty, then when they return home, bruised and battle-scarred and committed to defending their freedoms at home, we often treat them like criminals merely for exercising those rights they risked their lives to defend.
The government even has a name for its war on America’s veterans: Operation Vigilant Eagle.
As first reported by the Wall Street Journal, this Department of Homeland Security (DHS) program tracks military veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan and characterizes them as extremists and potential domestic terrorist threats because they may be “disgruntled, disillusioned or suffering from the psychological effects of war.”
Coupled with the DHS’ dual reports on Rightwing and Leftwing “Extremism,” which broadly define extremists as individuals, military veterans and groups “that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely,” these tactics bode ill for anyone seen as opposing the government.
Yet the government is not merely targeting individuals who are voicing their discontent so much as it is taking aim at individuals trained in military warfare.
Don’t be fooled by the fact that the DHS has gone extremely quiet about Operation Vigilant Eagle.
Where there’s smoke, there’s bound to be fire.
And the government’s efforts to target military veterans whose views may be perceived as “anti-government” make clear that something is afoot.
In recent years, military servicemen and women have found themselves increasingly targeted for surveillance, censorship, threatened with incarceration or involuntary commitment, labeled as extremists and/or mentally ill, and stripped of their Second Amendment rights.
In light of the government’s efforts to lay the groundwork to weaponize the public’s biomedical data and predict who might pose a threat to public safety based on mental health sensor data (a convenient means by which to penalize certain “unacceptable” social behaviors), encounters with the police could get even more deadly, especially if those involved have a mental illness or disability coupled with a military background.
Incredibly, as part of a proposal being considered by the Trump Administration, a new government agency HARPA (a healthcare counterpart to the Pentagon’s research and development arm DARPA) will take the lead in identifying and targeting “signs” of mental illness or violent inclinations among the populace by using artificial intelligence to collect data from Apple Watches, Fitbits, Amazon Echo and Google Home.
These tactics are not really new.
Many times throughout history in totalitarian regimes, such governments have declared dissidents mentally ill and unfit for society as a means of rendering them disempowering them.
As Pulitzer Prize-winning author Anne Applebaum observes in Gulag: A History: “The exile of prisoners to a distant place, where they can ‘pay their debt to society,’ make themselves useful, and not contaminate others with their ideas or their criminal acts, is a practice as old as civilization itself. The rulers of ancient Rome and Greece sent their dissidents off to distant colonies. Socrates chose death over the torment of exile from Athens. The poet Ovid was exiled to a fetid port on the Black Sea.”
For example, government officials in the Cold War-era Soviet Union often used psychiatric hospitals as prisons in order to isolate political prisoners from the rest of society, discredit their ideas, and break them physically and mentally through the use of electric shocks, drugs and various medical procedures.
Insisting that “ideas about a struggle for truth and justice are formed by personalities with a paranoid structure,” the psychiatric community actually went so far as to provide the government with a diagnosis suitable for locking up such freedom-oriented activists.
In addition to declaring political dissidents mentally unsound, Russian officials also made use of an administrative process for dealing with individuals who were considered a bad influence on others or troublemakers.
Author George Kennan describes a process in which:
The obnoxious person may not be guilty of any crime . . . but if, in the opinion of the local authorities, his presence in a particular place is “prejudicial to public order” or “incompatible with public tranquility,” he may be arrested without warrant, may be held from two weeks to two years in prison, and may then be removed by force to any other place within the limits of the empire and there be put under police surveillance for a period of from one to ten years. Administrative exile–which required no trial and no sentencing procedure–was an ideal punishment not only for troublemakers as such, but also for political opponents of the regime.
Sound familiar?
This age-old practice by which despotic regimes eliminate their critics or potential adversaries by declaring them mentally ill and locking them up in psychiatric wards for extended periods of time is a common practice in present-day China.
What is particularly unnerving, however, is how this practice of eliminating or undermining potential critics, including military veterans, is happening with increasing frequency in the United States.
Remember, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) opened the door for the government to detain as a threat to national security anyone viewed as a troublemaker. According to government guidelines for identifying domestic extremists—a word used interchangeably with terrorists—technically, anyone exercising their First Amendment rights in order to criticize the government qualifies.
It doesn’t take much anymore to be flagged as potentially anti-government in a government database somewhere—Main Core, for example—that identifies and tracks individuals who aren’t inclined to march in lockstep to the government’s dictates.
In fact, as the Washington Post reports, communities are being mapped and residents assigned a color-coded threat score—green, yellow or red—so police are forewarned about a person’s potential inclination to be a troublemaker depending on whether they’ve had a career in the military, posted a comment perceived as threatening on Facebook, suffer from a particular medical condition, or know someone who knows someone who might have committed a crime.
The case of Brandon Raub is a prime example of Operation Vigilant Eagle in action.
Raub, a 26-year-old decorated Marine, actually found himself interrogated by government agents about his views on government corruption, arrested with no warning, labeled mentally ill for subscribing to so-called “conspiratorial” views about the government, detained against his will in a psych ward for standing by his views, and isolated from his family, friends and attorneys.
On August 16, 2012, a swarm of local police, Secret Service and FBI agents arrived at Raub’s Virginia home, asking to speak with him about posts he had made on his Facebook page made up of song lyrics, political opinions and dialogue used in a political thriller virtual card game.
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Among the posts cited as troublesome were lyrics to a song by a rap group and Raub’s views, shared increasingly by a number of Americans, that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an inside job.
After a brief conversation and without providing any explanation, levying any charges against Raub or reading him his rights, Raub was then handcuffed and transported to police headquarters, then to a medical center, where he was held against his will due to alleged concerns that his Facebook posts were “terrorist in nature.”
Outraged onlookers filmed the arrest and posted the footage to YouTube, where it quickly went viral. Meanwhile, in a kangaroo court hearing that turned a deaf ear to Raub’s explanations about the fact that his Facebook posts were being read out of context, Raub was sentenced to up to 30 days’ further confinement in a psychiatric ward.
Thankfully, The Rutherford Institute came to Raub’s assistance, which combined with heightened media attention, brought about his release and may have helped prevent Raub from being successfully “disappeared” by the government.
Even so, within days of Raub being seized and forcibly held in a VA psych ward, news reports started surfacing of other veterans having similar experiences.
“Oppositional defiance disorder” (ODD) is another diagnosis being used against veterans who challenge the status quo. As journalist Anthony Martin explains, an ODD diagnosis
“denotes that the person exhibits ‘symptoms’ such as the questioning of authority, the refusal to follow directions, stubbornness, the unwillingness to go along with the crowd, and the practice of disobeying or ignoring orders. Persons may also receive such a label if they are considered free thinkers, nonconformists, or individuals who are suspicious of large, centralized government… At one time the accepted protocol among mental health professionals was to reserve the diagnosis of oppositional defiance disorder for children or adolescents who exhibited uncontrollable defiance toward their parents and teachers.”
Frankly, based on how well my personality and my military service in the U.S. Armed Forces fit with this description of “oppositional defiance disorder,” I’m sure there’s a file somewhere with my name on it.
That the government is using the charge of mental illness as the means by which to immobilize (and disarm) these veterans is diabolical. With one stroke of a magistrate’s pen, these veterans are being declared mentally ill, locked away against their will, and stripped of their constitutional rights.
If it were just being classified as “anti-government,” that would be one thing.
Unfortunately, anyone with a military background and training is also now being viewed as a heightened security threat by police who are trained to shoot first and ask questions later.
Feeding this perception of veterans as ticking time bombs in need of intervention, the Justice Department launched a pilot program in 2012 aimed at training SWAT teams to deal with confrontations involving highly trained and often heavily armed combat veterans.
The result?
Police encounters with military veterans often escalate very quickly into an explosive and deadly situation, especially when SWAT teams are involved.
For example, Jose Guerena, a Marine who served in two tours in Iraq, was killed after an Arizona SWAT team kicked open the door of his home during a mistaken drug raid and opened fire. Thinking his home was being invaded by criminals, Guerena told his wife and child to hide in a closet, grabbed a gun and waited in the hallway to confront the intruders. He never fired his weapon. In fact, the safety was still on his gun when he was killed. The SWAT officers, however, not as restrained, fired 70 rounds of ammunition at Guerena—23 of those bullets made contact. Apart from his military background, Guerena had had no prior criminal record, and the police found nothing illegal in his home.
John Edward Chesney, a 62-year-old Vietnam veteran, was killed by a SWAT team allegedly responding to a call that the Army veteran was standing in his San Diego apartment window waving what looked like a semi-automatic rifle. SWAT officers locked down Chesney’s street, took up positions around his home, and fired 12 rounds into Chesney’s apartment window. It turned out that the gun Chesney reportedly pointed at police from three stories up was a “realistic-looking mock assault rifle.”
Ramon Hooks’ encounter with a Houston SWAT team did not end as tragically, but it very easily could have. Hooks, a 25-year-old Iraq war veteran, was using an air rifle gun for target practice outside when a Homeland Security Agent, allegedly house shopping in the area, reported him as an active shooter. It wasn’t long before the quiet neighborhood was transformed into a war zone, with dozens of cop cars, an armored vehicle and heavily armed police. Hooks was arrested, his air rifle pellets and toy gun confiscated, and charges filed against him for “criminal mischief.”
Given the government’s increasing view of veterans as potential domestic terrorists, it makes one think twice about government programs encouraging veterans to include a veterans designation on their drivers’ licenses and ID cards.
Hailed by politicians as a way to “make it easier for military veterans to access discounts from retailers, restaurants, hotels and vendors across the state,” it will also make it that much easier for the government to identify and target veterans who dare to challenge the status quo.
Remember: no one is spared in a police state.
Eventually, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we all suffer the same fate.
It stands to reason that if the government can’t be bothered to abide by its constitutional mandate to respect the citizenry’s rights—whether it’s the right to be free from government surveillance and censorship, the right to due process and fair hearings, the right to be free from roadside strip searches and militarized police, or the right to peacefully assemble and protest and exercise our right to free speech—then why should anyone expect the government to treat our nation’s veterans with respect and dignity?
It’s time to end the government’s war on the American people, and that includes military veterans.
Certainly, veterans have enough physical and psychological war wounds to overcome without adding the government to the mix. Although the U.S. boasts more than 20 million veterans who have served in World War II through the present day, large numbers of veterans are impoverished, unemployed, traumatized mentally and physically, struggling with depression, suicide, and marital stress, homeless, subjected to sub-par treatment at clinics and hospitals, and left to molder while their paperwork piles up within Veterans Administration offices.
At least 60,000 veterans died by suicide between 2008 and 2017.
On average, 6,000 veterans kill themselves every year, and the numbers are on the rise.
The plight of veterans today—and their treatment at the hands of the U.S. government—remains America’s badge of shame.
So here’s a suggestion: if you really want to do something to show your respect and appreciation for the nation’s veterans, why not skip the parades and the flag-waving and instead go exercise your rights—the freedoms that those veterans swore to protect—by pushing back against the government’s tyranny.
It’s time the rest of the nation did its part to safeguard the freedoms we too often take for granted.
Freedom is not free.
WC: 2459
ABOUT JOHN W. WHITEHEAD
Constitutional attorney and author John W. Whitehead is founder and president of The Rutherford Institute . His new book Battlefield America: The War on the American People is available at www.amazon.com . Whitehead can be contacted at johnw@rutherford.org.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--1984 is here – Fox host Neil Cavuto interrupts Trump Campaign presser and refuses to show it citing

1984 is here – Fox host Neil Cavuto interrupts Trump Campaign presser and refuses to show it citing false information

FOX NEWS ' NEIL CAVUTO CUTS TRUMP CAMPAGIN PRESSER : `` Whoa , whoa , whoa .
I just think @ @ @ @ @ clear…She 's charging the other side as welcoming fraud and illegal voting , unless she @ @ @ @ @ that up , I ca n't in good countenance continue to show you this .
@ @

FOX NEWS' NEIL CAVUTO CUTS TRUMP CAMPAGIN PRESSER: "Whoa, whoa, whoa. I just think we have to be very clear…She's charging the other side as welcoming fraud and illegal voting, unless she has more details to back that up, I can't in good countenance continue to show you this." pic.twitter.com/SE9BGKdh75
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--Fox News now projecting they have lost 73 Million viewers in 2 days.

Fox News now projecting they have lost 73 Million viewers in 2 days .
@ FoxNews

Fox News now projecting they have lost 73 Million viewers in 2 days.@FoxNews
— ✞♕In God I Trust♕✞ (@InGodIDoTrust) November 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--According to our own State Dept’s assessment of corrupt foreign elections, the 2020 US elections do

Here is the article from the US State Department ’ s website .
AG Barr Orders Federal Prosecutors Across U.S. @ @ @ @ @ !

YIKES: Memo from State Dept. on how it qualified Ukrainian elections as “rigged.” Bottom Line: According to our own State Dept’s assessment of corrupt foreign elections, the 2020 US elections do not meet its own standards. But let’s ignore this.@OANNt.co/oB7PedrNBW pic.twitter.com/bNTJferKNG — Chanel Rion OAN (@ChanelRion) November 9, 2020
Here is the article from the US State Department’s website.
2001-2009.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/39542.htm
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AG Barr Orders Federal Prosecutors Across U.S. To Start Voter Fraud Prosecutions!
BREAKING – Attorney General William Barr has authorized federal prosecutors across the U.S. to pursue “substantial allegations” of voting irregularities before the 2020 presidential election is certified (AP News) — Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) November 9, 2020
h/t truthwillout777


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--Death of Small Business

Death of Small Business

So it has become clear that one of the main goals of the Lockdowns are to destroy small independent business to make way for Corporations to buy everything up for the low .
Since the start of the pandemic the monopoly Amazon and other online retailers have has grown ridiculously all while small business owners are having to close their businesses and are left with debts and loans to repay .
If the Pandemic was as deadly as they say then we would be seeing people dying at supermarkets , people dying at Amazon warehouses and thousands of protesters also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this but more strict rules and propaganda .
In the UK they are fining people and businesses up to 10k for violating draconian rules , that is enough to bankrupt a business or to leave a person in years worth of debt in the middle of a f*cking pandemic .
Another thing I noticed is that all of the small businesses and shops around here do not give a f*ck about the mask rules or the max ppl in a shop rule because they are down to earth decent people .
Whereas if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , restaurant chain or other corporate environments you immediately have people telling you to mask up and scan your track and trace .
The future will be a grim place where you are nothing but a masked up , vaccinated , microchipped human drone browsing the endless isles of the brand new all in one Amazon shop/restaurant/school/mall/prison .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by SP_117
So it has become clear that one of the main goals of the Lockdowns are to destroy small independent business to make way for Corporations to buy everything up for the low.
Since the start of the pandemic the monopoly Amazon and other online retailers have has grown ridiculously all while small business owners are having to close their businesses and are left with debts and loans to repay.
If the Pandemic was as deadly as they say then we would be seeing people dying at supermarkets, people dying at Amazon warehouses and thousands of protesters also dead. However we see none of this but more strict rules and propaganda.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the UK they are fining people and businesses up to 10k for violating draconian rules, that is enough to bankrupt a business or to leave a person in years worth of debt in the middle of a f*cking pandemic.
Another thing I noticed is that all of the small businesses and shops around here do not give a f*ck about the mask rules or the max ppl in a shop rule because they are down to earth decent people. Whereas if you try to enter any big supermarket, restaurant chain or other corporate environments you immediately have people telling you to mask up and scan your track and trace.
The future will be a grim place where you are nothing but a masked up, vaccinated, microchipped human drone browsing the endless isles of the brand new all in one Amazon shop/restaurant/school/mall/prison.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--VIDEO of Russian Mi-24 military Helicopter being shot down over Armenia, Killing two crew members

Definitely one to keep an eye on…

Definitely one to keep an eye on…
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54874162
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h/t THAT JUST BROKE


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--Minnesota going on hard lockdown?

Minnesota going on hard lockdown?

`` Governor is planning to make an announcement Wednesday the 11th or Thursday the 12th for a shelter in place @ @ @ @ @ Friday the 13th . ''
This is from the well known lawyer email list I @ @ @ @ @ all in on virus regime and sees this as fine , info is good .

"Governor is planning to make an announcement Wednesday the 11th or Thursday the 12th for a shelter in place order that will likely start Friday the 13th." This is from the well known lawyer email list I am on. She is all in on virus regime and sees this as fine, info is good.
— Nathan M. Hansen (@nathanmhansen) November 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--Rental Market Apocalypse Trigger A Housing Crisis: Prepare Your Self For The Worst!

The rental market collapse is not only putting families at risk of eviction as it is contributing to the permanent closures of several stores and leading U.S. shopping malls to bankruptcy .
As the economy awaits another stimulus package , unemployed workers drowning in debt don ’ t find the means to meet their rental payments , consumer spending continues to critically decline making several businesses delinquent on their leases , and leaving mall owners in a dangerous position .
The more the delivery of further federal assistance is postponed the more store closures are increasing the risk for shopping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , two major U.S. malls have already filed for bankruptcy , and economists are fearing that an explosion of debt on the rental market may trigger a commercial real state and residential housing apocalypse of unprecedented proportions .
In this video , we discuss the many decisive factors building up the rental market crisis .
The housing market is in big trouble due to the lack of federal aid to ease the effects of the economic collapse .
Market analysts outline that commercial real estate and residential housing have enormous capitulation risks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next stock market crash .
A recent study found that up to 40 million people risk missing rent .
Researchers indicated that the United States may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history , while executives in the real estate and housing sectors argued that the longer the federal government waits to act , the steeper the financial cliff that renters will be pushed off when the eviction moratorium expires this winter .
Meanwhile , a recent analysis showed that in 25 major US cities , over 50 % are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bubble .
Renters and tenants coping with hardships , combined with a looming correction in home values , could weigh heavily on the housing market .
Landlords are having to deal with huge amounts of default , which means renters then will be on the hook for months of missed payments , meaning that mass evictions , permanent business closures , and more bankruptcies are expected to happen shortly , and its consequences are likely to bleed over the broader economy .
The outstanding rent debt could reach $ 7.2 billion before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rent debt could reach nearly $ 70 billion by year-end if there is no additional stimulus spending , with nearly 12.8 million Americans owing an average of $ 5,400 from missed payments .
Although the larger figure is far smaller than the 2007 subprime-mortgage bubble burst , this time around , tens of millions of people are going to be caught in a web of home-rental debt and eviction rates can be much higher .
However , the problem doesn ’ t stop right there .
As many renters relied on credit cards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national rent debt is probably far larger than what can be counted from missed payments alone .
This relocation of debt from landlord to plastic can harm renters ’ credit long term by using too much of their available credit line , which can lower scores .
Renters that have previously arranged alternative payment plans with their landlords month are now falling behind on their settlements , and some landlords have been adding punitive late fees on top of what is already owed , so their debt is becoming much higher than just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is to say , the multibillion-dollar rent debt added to the fast-climbing credit card debt could put a large burden of uncollectible debt on bank balance sheets , which will restrict their ability to lend , and consequently , undermine the credit of landlords .
On top of that , commercial properties have been experiencing growing hardships as the considerable decline in consumer spending at brick-and-mortar retail stores continues to compromise the livelihood of retailers in shopping malls , and thereby , jeopardizing mall owners ’ ability to pay for their commercial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Last week , CBL & Associates and Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust have filed for bankruptcy , seeking protection from creditors .
Together the two properties account for some 87 million square feet of real estate nationwide .
Both companies mentioned how the current recession has hurt their tenants , and , in turn , their own businesses .
Others are expected to follow , since a recent survey showed shopping centers and malls rank as the most-avoided public places among consumers , and despite the coming holiday season , 55.4 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at malls , which means our economy will still experience a lot of turbulence before the year ends .

The rental market collapse is not only putting families at risk of eviction as it is contributing to the permanent closures of several stores and leading U.S. shopping malls to bankruptcy. As the economy awaits another stimulus package, unemployed workers drowning in debt don’t find the means to meet their rental payments, consumer spending continues to critically decline making several businesses delinquent on their leases, and leaving mall owners in a dangerous position.
The more the delivery of further federal assistance is postponed the more store closures are increasing the risk for shopping malls to become bankrupt. This week, two major U.S. malls have already filed for bankruptcy, and economists are fearing that an explosion of debt on the rental market may trigger a commercial real state and residential housing apocalypse of unprecedented proportions.
In this video, we discuss the many decisive factors building up the rental market crisis. The housing market is in big trouble due to the lack of federal aid to ease the effects of the economic collapse. Market analysts outline that commercial real estate and residential housing have enormous capitulation risks, which will add massive pressure on the next stock market crash.
A recent study found that up to 40 million people risk missing rent. Researchers indicated that the United States may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history, while executives in the real estate and housing sectors argued that the longer the federal government waits to act, the steeper the financial cliff that renters will be pushed off when the eviction moratorium expires this winter.
Meanwhile, a recent analysis showed that in 25 major US cities, over 50% are at risk of facing a housing market bubble. Renters and tenants coping with hardships, combined with a looming correction in home values, could weigh heavily on the housing market.
Landlords are having to deal with huge amounts of default, which means renters then will be on the hook for months of missed payments, meaning that mass evictions, permanent business closures, and more bankruptcies are expected to happen shortly, and its consequences are likely to bleed over the broader economy.
The outstanding rent debt could reach $7.2 billion before the close of 2020, and the total rent debt could reach nearly $70 billion by year-end if there is no additional stimulus spending, with nearly 12.8 million Americans owing an average of $5,400 from missed payments. Although the larger figure is far smaller than the 2007 subprime-mortgage bubble burst, this time around, tens of millions of people are going to be caught in a web of home-rental debt and eviction rates can be much higher.
However, the problem doesn’t stop right there. As many renters relied on credit cards to afford their payments, the total national rent debt is probably far larger than what can be counted from missed payments alone. This relocation of debt from landlord to plastic can harm renters’ credit long term by using too much of their available credit line, which can lower scores.
Renters that have previously arranged alternative payment plans with their landlords month are now falling behind on their settlements, and some landlords have been adding punitive late fees on top of what is already owed, so their debt is becoming much higher than just the face value of the rent.
That is to say, the multibillion-dollar rent debt added to the fast-climbing credit card debt could put a large burden of uncollectible debt on bank balance sheets, which will restrict their ability to lend, and consequently, undermine the credit of landlords.
On top of that, commercial properties have been experiencing growing hardships as the considerable decline in consumer spending at brick-and-mortar retail stores continues to compromise the livelihood of retailers in shopping malls, and thereby, jeopardizing mall owners’ ability to pay for their commercial mortgage and stay in business too.
Last week, CBL & Associates and Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust have filed for bankruptcy, seeking protection from creditors. Together the two properties account for some 87 million square feet of real estate nationwide. Both companies mentioned how the current recession has hurt their tenants, and, in turn, their own businesses.
Others are expected to follow, since a recent survey showed shopping centers and malls rank as the most-avoided public places among consumers, and despite the coming holiday season, 55.4% of those polled said they would avoid shopping at malls, which means our economy will still experience a lot of turbulence before the year ends.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--State Bar Passes Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccination Recommendation

The resolution does contain conditions limiting its scope .
Those include that the state government should only consider making vaccinations @ @ @ @ @ fall short of producing needed levels of population immunity ; that an assessment of the @ @ @ @ @ be made so that perhaps the mandate can be targeted ; and that a mandate @ @ @ @ @ is expert consensus about the vaccine ’ s safety and efficacy .
The New York @ @ @ @ @ passed a resolution urging the state to consider making it mandatory for all New Yorkers @ @ @ @ @ a vaccine becomes available , even if people object to it for “ religious , @ @ @ @ @ ”

The resolution does contain conditions limiting its scope. Those include that the state government should only consider making vaccinations mandatory if voluntary COVID-19 vaccinations fall short of producing needed levels of population immunity; that an assessment of the health threat to various communities be made so that perhaps the mandate can be targeted; and that a mandate only be considered after there is expert consensus about the vaccine’s safety and efficacy.
The New York State Bar Association on Saturday passed a resolution urging the state to consider making it mandatory for all New Yorkers to undergo COVID-19 vaccination when a vaccine becomes available, even if people object to it for “religious, philosophical or personal reasons.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2020/11/07/state-bar-passes-mandatory-covid-19-vaccination-recommendation/?slreturn=20201009223433


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-10--WHAT COULD GO WRONG ASIDE FROM LITERALLY EVERYTHING?

Mideast heads for policy revamp under Biden .
“ Contrary to Donald Trump ’ s impulsive policies in the Middle East , Joe Biden is expected to shift back to a more conventional US stance and re-engage with Iran , redrawing regional geopolitics.
” Me , back in August on “ Trump and the Art of the Middle East Peace Deal ” : That ’ s not to say that peace and love and happiness will break out throughout the Middle East , or that the peace will last forever .
Trump is a dealmaker , not a miracle worker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — which will create genuine benefits for Arabs and Israelis alike — was a very stable genius bit of kabuki : • Launch a peace initiative designed to induce the Palestinian leadership to indulge in their usual bad behavior • Give Israel the backing it needed to ostensibly take dramatic action in the Jordan River Valley • Watch as Israel and Arab governments practically fall over themselves to “ give up ” the land Israel never annexed in exchange for the peace the Arabs need in order to face Iran Nobody actually gave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what they wanted .
Well , except for the Palestinians , but yet again , they have only themselves to blame for that .
Maybe Trump just lucked out , somehow bumbling his stupid way into peace .
Maybe the Bolshoi Ballet is just an infinite number of hyperactive spider monkeys in leotards .
Nothing this well-orchestrated happens by happenstance .
I hope you have plenty of fresh unexpectedlies ready in case Biden lets Iran back out of the box Trump put them in , as he seems inclined to do .
ALSO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of foreign policy issues for decades .
WHAT COULD GO WRONG ?
Biden ’ s Pick for Coronavirus Task Force : ‘ Living Too Long Is Also a Loss.
’ This morning , President-elect Biden announced that his coronavirus task force would include Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel , chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania .
In a 2014 essay in The Atlantic , Emanuel , explained why he hoped to die at age 75 , and why he finds the idea of living past that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jim Geraghty writes , it ’ s curious choice by Biden , considering the virus is “ particularly dangerous to the elderly.
” Later in that above Atlantic article , as PJM ’ s Tyler O ’ Neil spotted , Emanuel wrote that in his opinion , for someone over 75 , “ Flu shots are out : ” What about simple stuff ?
Flu shots are out .
Certainly if there were to be a flu pandemic , a younger person who has yet to live a complete life ought to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A big challenge is antibiotics for pneumonia or skin and urinary infections .
Antibiotics are cheap and largely effective in curing infections .
It is really hard for us to say no .
Indeed , even people who are sure they don ’ t want life-extending treatments find it hard to refuse antibiotics .
But , as Osler reminds us , unlike the decays associated with chronic conditions , death from these infections is quick and relatively painless .
So , no to antibiotics .
Obviously , a do-not-resuscitate order and a complete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , surgery , antibiotics , or any other medication—nothing except palliative care even if I am conscious but not mentally competent—have been written and recorded .
In short , no life-sustaining interventions .
I will die when whatever comes first takes me .

Mideast heads for policy revamp under Biden. “Contrary to Donald Trump’s impulsive policies in the Middle East, Joe Biden is expected to shift back to a more conventional US stance and re-engage with Iran, redrawing regional geopolitics.”
“Impulsive.”
Me, back in August on “Trump and the Art of the Middle East Peace Deal”:
That’s not to say that peace and love and happiness will break out throughout the Middle East, or that the peace will last forever. Trump is a dealmaker, not a miracle worker. But the theater we just witnessed — which will create genuine benefits for Arabs and Israelis alike — was a very stable genius bit of kabuki: • Launch a peace initiative designed to induce the Palestinian leadership to indulge in their usual bad behavior • Give Israel the backing it needed to ostensibly take dramatic action in the Jordan River Valley • Watch as Israel and Arab governments practically fall over themselves to “give up” the land Israel never annexed in exchange for the peace the Arabs need in order to face Iran Nobody actually gave up anything, and everybody is getting what they wanted. Well, except for the Palestinians, but yet again, they have only themselves to blame for that. Maybe Trump just lucked out, somehow bumbling his stupid way into peace. Maybe the Bolshoi Ballet is just an infinite number of hyperactive spider monkeys in leotards. Nothing this well-orchestrated happens by happenstance.
I hope you have plenty of fresh unexpectedlies ready in case Biden lets Iran back out of the box Trump put them in, as he seems inclined to do.
ALSO: Biden has been on wrong side of foreign policy issues for decades.
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If I’d known Biden was open to ‘lockdowns’ as he now states, which is something historically unprecedented in any pandemic, and a terrifying practice, one that won’t ever end because elites love it, I would never have voted for him. — Dr Naomi Wolf (@naomirwolf) November 9, 2020
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Biden’s Pick for Coronavirus Task Force: ‘Living Too Long Is Also a Loss.’
This morning, President-elect Biden announced that his coronavirus task force would include Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania. In a 2014 essay in The Atlantic, Emanuel, explained why he hoped to die at age 75, and why he finds the idea of living past that date to be morally problematic:
As Jim Geraghty writes, it’s curious choice by Biden, considering the virus is “particularly dangerous to the elderly.”
Later in that above Atlantic article, as PJM’s Tyler O’Neil spotted, Emanuel wrote that in his opinion, for someone over 75, “Flu shots are out:”
What about simple stuff? Flu shots are out. Certainly if there were to be a flu pandemic, a younger person who has yet to live a complete life ought to get the vaccine or any antiviral drugs. A big challenge is antibiotics for pneumonia or skin and urinary infections. Antibiotics are cheap and largely effective in curing infections. It is really hard for us to say no. Indeed, even people who are sure they don’t want life-extending treatments find it hard to refuse antibiotics. But, as Osler reminds us, unlike the decays associated with chronic conditions, death from these infections is quick and relatively painless. So, no to antibiotics. Obviously, a do-not-resuscitate order and a complete advance directive indicating no ventilators, dialysis, surgery, antibiotics, or any other medication—nothing except palliative care even if I am conscious but not mentally competent—have been written and recorded. In short, no life-sustaining interventions. I will die when whatever comes first takes me.
h/t Stephen Green


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-11--It’s Going To The Supreme Court: Trump Could Still Emerge The 2020 Election Winner

The major news outlets have declared Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 presidential election based partly on a projection that Biden would win Pennsylvania ’ s 20 electoral votes .
Well , maybe , maybe not .
Projections are not official certifications let alone final votes in the Electoral College ( the composition of which will not be determined until December 8 .
The actual Electoral College vote for President happens on December 14 ) .
In particular , the Pennsylvania outcome is based on counting several hundred thousand mail-in ballots that were received after Election Day .
Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted .
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ( dominated by elected Democrats ) ordered that mail-in ballots could be counted if they were received up to three days after Election Day .
But the U.S. Constitution clearly says that state election laws are to be set by the “ legislature ” of each state .
Trump claims that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision is unconstitutional because it violates the requirement that legislatures set the rules .
That claim is now headed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that court agrees with Trump , then the late Pennsylvania ballots could be discarded , and Trump would win Pennsylvania .
Numerous challenges are working their way through the system .
The processes and deadlines in several states could change the outcome of the presidential election .
Depending on what happens in Arizona , Nevada and Georgia , Trump could still emerge a winner .
That ’ s a longshot , and I ’ m not holding my breath .
But , we must consider all possible outcomes .
Even if Biden emerges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , an even more decisive political race is yet to be decided — in fact , two races .
The Fight for the Senate Going into election night , the Republicans held control of the U.S. Senate by a 53-47 margin ( counting two independents with the Democrats ) .
As of now , the winners in the Senate races would result in a 49-48 edge for Republicans with three seats undecided .
One of the undecided seats is in Alaska .
The race has not officially been called because Alaska has many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to round-up the ballots .
But , the Republican candidate leads by a two-to-one margin , and all analysts agree the Republicans will hold that seat .
So , that puts the score at 50-48 in favor of Republicans .
But , that ’ s still not control .
The Democrats will need 50 seats for control ( where Vice President Kamala Harris can break a 50-50 tie ) while Republicans need 51 seats for control , an outright majority .
What ’ s up with the two missing seats ?
Both seats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a peculiar rule that you can not win a Senate race unless you get over 50 % of the vote , even if you got more votes than your opponent .
On Election Day , no one got 50 % in either of the two Senate races .
This was because of third-party candidates and some Republicans fighting each other .
Georgia law says in such cases , the two top contenders face a runoff election on January 5 .
With only two names on each ballot , someone must get 50 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runoff involves Kelly Loeffler ( Republican ) versus Raphael Warnock ( Democrat ) .
The other runoff involves David Perdue ( Republican ) versus Jon Ossoff ( Democrat ) .
Loeffler and Purdue are both incumbents today .
If Republicans win one or both of these races , they keep control of the Senate .
If Democrats win both of these races , they take control of the Senate .
Control of the Senate will be determinative of even bigger issues like the Green New Deal , statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Supreme Court and more .
These changes will affect the shape of governance in the United States in a deleterious and irreversible way .
Never have two Senate runoff elections been more important .
Between now and January 5 , we should all have Georgia on our minds .
But there ’ s one clear loser in this election — pollsters .
We all recall how badly pollsters performed in the 2016 presidential election .
Depending on the source , the odds of a Hillary Clinton victory were set at 90 % , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The results were expected to be an electoral college landslide , with Clinton keeping the west and northeast , maintaining her “ blue wall ” ( Pennsylvania , Ohio , Michigan and Wisconsin ) and even picking off some southern and mountain states expected to be friendly to Trump , especially Arizona .
None of this happened .
Trump held Arizona , swept the blue wall and defeated Hillary Clinton 304 to 227 in the Electoral College .
The pollsters were not even close to this result .
Pollsters then promised they would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , adjust their models and deliver much more accurate results for the 2020 election .
Did they ?
They did not even come close .
In many ways , the pollsters ’ performance was worse in 2020 .
Not Just a Little Wrong Pollsters will defend themselves by claiming that they projected Biden would win , and in fact , he did win ( subject to legal challenges and recounts that are still ongoing ) .
But , that ’ s no defense .
The polls showed Biden winning Wisconsin by 6.7 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
They showed Biden would win Florida by 1 % .
In fact , Trump won Florida by 3 % .
And the list of missed calls goes on state by state .
The pollster ’ s misses were not by 1 % or so .
That ’ s certainly acceptable and within the margin of error .
But they were wrong by five , six or seven percent , and sometimes more , depending on the state .
The claims of adjusting for the errors in 2016 , such as turnout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ urban votes , etc .
were all hot air .
A few pollsters did get it right , like Rasmussen , Trafalgar and Susquehanna .
But the mainstream polls such as ABC , CBS , NBC , Washington Post and New York Times were badly wrong .
What ’ s the lesson for investors trying to handicap elections in the future ?
Ignore mainstream polls , focus on the few pollsters who have valid methods and weigh non-poll information using other inputs and models .
Markets dislike uncertainty .
Polls try to add @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of now , most polls are worse than useless ; they are systematically wrong .
Meanwhile , the mainstream media has been clearly biased against President Trump .
Many of Trump ’ s supporters consider Fox a sympathetic alternative .
But , Fox News is now being called Faux News for its fake and misleading calls from a technical “ decision desk ” on election night .
Fox News made a series of wrong calls on election night .
Anyone can make a mistake ; I ’ ve made my share .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calls were systemic , all in one direction and not merely wrong , but statistically unsupportable .
One is left with the impression that the Fox News decision desk was out to sabotage Donald Trump , and they did a pretty good job of it .
The Fox decision desk is led by Arnon Mishkin , a registered Democrat and donor to the Democratic Party .
That ’ s fine as far as it goes , but on election night he acted more like a Democratic Party mole than an objective expert .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ would remain in Democratic hands .
He went so far as to say Democrats would gain five seats at 9:40 pm on election night .
Really ?
The House consists of 435 separate races from coast-to-coast .
Some were easy to call , but many were hotly contested .
Going into the election , the Democrats had 232 seats , and the Republicans had 197 ( there were five vacancies and one independent ) .
The Republicans only need to capture two vacancies and flip 18 seats to take control of the House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but not impossible .
Fox ’ s “ call ” was made early in the evening when polls were still open in most of the country .
Many of the seats the Republicans hoped to regain were in California and the call came when people there were still lined up to vote .
Did voters give up and go home when they heard Fox say the Democrats would still be in control ?
In fact , the Republicans have gained five seats so far , and are on track to win at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the House at 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans , a gain of 11 seats for Republicans .
Technically the Democrats would have control , but it takes only ten moderate Democratic crossovers to force Nancy Pelosi to compromise with the Republicans .
Why on earth was Fox calling the House and suppressing Republican votes early in the evening when matters were still up in the air ?
Fox became more blatantly false just before midnight when they “ called ” Arizona for Biden .
They were the only major network to do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump at the time .
As of today , the outcome is Arizona is still unclear .
Biden may win it in the end , but the issue is why call such a close race days before the result is clear ?
These calls were not simple reversible errors .
They had consequences in places like Pennsylvania and Georgia which mysteriously stopped their vote counting shortly after Arizona was called for Biden .
The Fox decision desk was a fiasco .
Fox ’ s reputation has taken a hit and deservedly so .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ if ever ) before they recover their reputation .
Now it looks like you can ’ t trust the news either .
In the final analysis , don ’ t bet on a Trump victory — the odds are stacked against him — but don ’ t rule it out either .

by Jim Rickards via Daily Reckoning
The major news outlets have declared Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 presidential election based partly on a projection that Biden would win Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.
Well, maybe, maybe not.
Projections are not official certifications let alone final votes in the Electoral College (the composition of which will not be determined until December 8. The actual Electoral College vote for President happens on December 14).
In particular, the Pennsylvania outcome is based on counting several hundred thousand mail-in ballots that were received after Election Day.
Pennsylvania state law passed by the legislature requires that mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court (dominated by elected Democrats) ordered that mail-in ballots could be counted if they were received up to three days after Election Day.
The Constitution
But the U.S. Constitution clearly says that state election laws are to be set by the “legislature” of each state. Trump claims that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision is unconstitutional because it violates the requirement that legislatures set the rules.
That claim is now headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. If that court agrees with Trump, then the late Pennsylvania ballots could be discarded, and Trump would win Pennsylvania.
Numerous challenges are working their way through the system. The processes and deadlines in several states could change the outcome of the presidential election. Depending on what happens in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, Trump could still emerge a winner.
That’s a longshot, and I’m not holding my breath. But, we must consider all possible outcomes.
Even if Biden emerges as the winner, in the end, an even more decisive political race is yet to be decided — in fact, two races.
The Fight for the Senate
Going into election night, the Republicans held control of the U.S. Senate by a 53-47 margin (counting two independents with the Democrats). As of now, the winners in the Senate races would result in a 49-48 edge for Republicans with three seats undecided.
One of the undecided seats is in Alaska. The race has not officially been called because Alaska has many remote locations, and it takes time to round-up the ballots. But, the Republican candidate leads by a two-to-one margin, and all analysts agree the Republicans will hold that seat.
So, that puts the score at 50-48 in favor of Republicans. But, that’s still not control.
The Democrats will need 50 seats for control (where Vice President Kamala Harris can break a 50-50 tie) while Republicans need 51 seats for control, an outright majority.
Georgia on Our Minds
What’s up with the two missing seats? Both seats are in Georgia. That state has a peculiar rule that you cannot win a Senate race unless you get over 50% of the vote, even if you got more votes than your opponent.
On Election Day, no one got 50% in either of the two Senate races. This was because of third-party candidates and some Republicans fighting each other. Georgia law says in such cases, the two top contenders face a runoff election on January 5. With only two names on each ballot, someone must get 50% and be declared the winner.
One runoff involves Kelly Loeffler (Republican) versus Raphael Warnock (Democrat). The other runoff involves David Perdue (Republican) versus Jon Ossoff (Democrat).
Loeffler and Purdue are both incumbents today. If Republicans win one or both of these races, they keep control of the Senate. If Democrats win both of these races, they take control of the Senate.
Control of the Senate will be determinative of even bigger issues like the Green New Deal, statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington D.C., tax increases, packing the Supreme Court and more.
These changes will affect the shape of governance in the United States in a deleterious and irreversible way. Never have two Senate runoff elections been more important. Between now and January 5, we should all have Georgia on our minds.
But there’s one clear loser in this election — pollsters.
The Same Errors
We all recall how badly pollsters performed in the 2016 presidential election. Depending on the source, the odds of a Hillary Clinton victory were set at 90%, 92% or even 93%.
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The results were expected to be an electoral college landslide, with Clinton keeping the west and northeast, maintaining her “blue wall” (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin) and even picking off some southern and mountain states expected to be friendly to Trump, especially Arizona.
None of this happened. Trump held Arizona, swept the blue wall and defeated Hillary Clinton 304 to 227 in the Electoral College. The pollsters were not even close to this result. Pollsters then promised they would mend their ways, consider their mistakes, adjust their models and deliver much more accurate results for the 2020 election.
Did they? They did not even come close. In many ways, the pollsters’ performance was worse in 2020.
Not Just a Little Wrong
Pollsters will defend themselves by claiming that they projected Biden would win, and in fact, he did win (subject to legal challenges and recounts that are still ongoing).
But, that’s no defense. The polls showed Biden winning Wisconsin by 6.7%. It was actually less than 1%. They showed Biden would win Florida by 1%. In fact, Trump won Florida by 3%. And the list of missed calls goes on state by state.
The pollster’s misses were not by 1% or so. That’s certainly acceptable and within the margin of error. But they were wrong by five, six or seven percent, and sometimes more, depending on the state.
The claims of adjusting for the errors in 2016, such as turnout models, educational levels, rural versus urban votes, etc. were all hot air. A few pollsters did get it right, like Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Susquehanna.
But the mainstream polls such as ABC, CBS, NBC, Washington Post and New York Times were badly wrong. What’s the lesson for investors trying to handicap elections in the future?
Ignore mainstream polls, focus on the few pollsters who have valid methods and weigh non-poll information using other inputs and models. Markets dislike uncertainty. Polls try to add some certainty to the process. As of now, most polls are worse than useless; they are systematically wrong.
Et Tu, Fox News?
Meanwhile, the mainstream media has been clearly biased against President Trump. Many of Trump’s supporters consider Fox a sympathetic alternative. But, Fox News is now being called Faux News for its fake and misleading calls from a technical “decision desk” on election night.
Fox News made a series of wrong calls on election night. Anyone can make a mistake; I’ve made my share. But, this was different. The wrong calls were systemic, all in one direction and not merely wrong, but statistically unsupportable. One is left with the impression that the Fox News decision desk was out to sabotage Donald Trump, and they did a pretty good job of it.
The Fox decision desk is led by Arnon Mishkin, a registered Democrat and donor to the Democratic Party. That’s fine as far as it goes, but on election night he acted more like a Democratic Party mole than an objective expert.
He first said the House of Representatives would remain in Democratic hands. He went so far as to say Democrats would gain five seats at 9:40 pm on election night. Really?
Did Fox’s Early Call Influence the Vote?
The House consists of 435 separate races from coast-to-coast. Some were easy to call, but many were hotly contested. Going into the election, the Democrats had 232 seats, and the Republicans had 197 (there were five vacancies and one independent). The Republicans only need to capture two vacancies and flip 18 seats to take control of the House. That’s a tall order, but not impossible.
Fox’s “call” was made early in the evening when polls were still open in most of the country. Many of the seats the Republicans hoped to regain were in California and the call came when people there were still lined up to vote. Did voters give up and go home when they heard Fox say the Democrats would still be in control?
In fact, the Republicans have gained five seats so far, and are on track to win at least six more. That could put the House at 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans, a gain of 11 seats for Republicans. Technically the Democrats would have control, but it takes only ten moderate Democratic crossovers to force Nancy Pelosi to compromise with the Republicans.
Why on earth was Fox calling the House and suppressing Republican votes early in the evening when matters were still up in the air?
Fox became more blatantly false just before midnight when they “called” Arizona for Biden. They were the only major network to do so. This broke some solid momentum for Trump at the time.
As of today, the outcome is Arizona is still unclear. Biden may win it in the end, but the issue is why call such a close race days before the result is clear?
These calls were not simple reversible errors. They had consequences in places like Pennsylvania and Georgia which mysteriously stopped their vote counting shortly after Arizona was called for Biden.
The Fox decision desk was a fiasco. Fox’s reputation has taken a hit and deservedly so. It may be a long time (if ever) before they recover their reputation. Now it looks like you can’t trust the news either.
In the final analysis, don’t bet on a Trump victory — the odds are stacked against him — but don’t rule it out either.