investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper Is Getting Some Pushback On Civil Liberties

UPDATE : From the comments : “ To paraphrase and update Tom Wolfe , ‘ The dark night of fascism @ @ @ @ @ due to the actions of Republicans and yet lands only in areas under Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @ UPDATE : Blowback for Gretchen Whitmer as Protesters Jam Downtown Lansing .
The protest , @ @ @ @ @ ” involved thousands of cars descending on the Capitol .
Related : Michigan Gov .
@ @ @ @ @ strict stay-at-home order .
When NBC News reports that a Democrat is in trouble , @ @ @ @ @ in trouble .
“ People always say : ‘ Conservatives never protest because they are @ @ @ @ @ ” the event page says .
“ Well , guess what .
You ’ re @ @ @ @ @ ’ s time to PROTEST .
”

Backstory here.
UPDATE: From the comments: “To paraphrase and update Tom Wolfe, ‘The dark night of fascism is always descending on Americans due to the actions of Republicans and yet lands only in areas under Democratic Party control’.”
ANOTHER UPDATE: Blowback for Gretchen Whitmer as Protesters Jam Downtown Lansing. The protest, called “Operation Gridlock,” involved thousands of cars descending on the Capitol.
Related: Michigan Gov. Whitmer faces fierce backlash over strict stay-at-home order. When NBC News reports that a Democrat is in trouble, you know they’re in trouble.
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Plus, I love this:
“People always say: ‘Conservatives never protest because they are too busy working,’” the event page says. “Well, guess what. You’re not working — so it’s time to PROTEST.”
Heh.
h/t GR


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Updated Coronavirus Fatalities Tracker

Updated Coronavirus Fatalities Tracker

Updated version of the coronavirus tracker I made a couple weeks back .
Initially inspired by the work of John Burn-Murdoch , this is now the 5th version of this tracker… and it has some good news !
Curves ARE flattening… albeit slowly .
Quarantine is working , let ’ s keep it up .
Initially sent as part of the chartr newsletter .
Answer to the question : “ Why not run this per capita ?
” … The virus infects individual people one at a time , rather than proportions of a population , so it makes sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Population size only really affects the ceiling of how many people could catch the virus , not how fast it is spreading .
Once all of this is over ( ASAP hopefully ) a per capita analysis may make more sense to give context to which countries were relatively most affected .
Answer to the question : “ Why use a log scale ?
” … I try to avoid log scales wherever possible , but in this case we are more interested in tracking and comparing the trajectories of countries that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fatalities .
Without a log scale , much of that detail is lost .
E.g .
Most of the countries below 10,000 fatalities would be hard to see , let alone gauge their exponential trajectory .

by chartr
Updated version of the coronavirus tracker I made a couple weeks back. Initially inspired by the work of John Burn-Murdoch, this is now the 5th version of this tracker… and it has some good news! Curves ARE flattening… albeit slowly. Quarantine is working, let’s keep it up.
Initially sent as part of the chartr newsletter.
Answer to the question: “Why not run this per capita?”… The virus infects individual people one at a time, rather than proportions of a population, so it makes sense to track the spread in absolute terms. Population size only really affects the ceiling of how many people could catch the virus, not how fast it is spreading. Once all of this is over (ASAP hopefully) a per capita analysis may make more sense to give context to which countries were relatively most affected.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Answer to the question: “Why use a log scale?”… I try to avoid log scales wherever possible, but in this case we are more interested in tracking and comparing the trajectories of countries that could have very different absolute numbers of fatalities. Without a log scale, much of that detail is lost. E.g. Most of the countries below 10,000 fatalities would be hard to see, let alone gauge their exponential trajectory.

Source: Johns Hopkins University
Tool: Microsoft Excel


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Lockdowns anti-constitutional? Furious crowds protest quarantine in Michigan…. ANOTHER MONTH: DC ext

Lockdowns anti-constitutional? Furious crowds protest quarantine in Michigan…. ANOTHER MONTH: DC extends stay-at-home order through May 15…

SPOKANE , Wash. ( AP ) — In deeply conservative eastern Washington state , a prominent state lawmaker kicked out of his Republican Party caucus labels the coronavirus as a foreign bio-weapon , accuses Marxists of using the pandemic to advance totalitarianism and rails against lockdown restrictions imposed by the Democratic governor .
A California teleconference last week to consider sport fishing limits in rural areas unprepared to handle influxes of anglers descended into chaos — with callers branding state officials as “ fascists ” and declaring it was time to “ make fishing great again.
” Across the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspicious of big government and outraged with orders to close churches , gun stores and other businesses deemed non-essential insist that the public health response is being used as an excuse to trample constitutional rights .
( WWJ ) Large and raucous crowds showed up in Michigan ’ s capital Wednesday for what organizers are calling “ Operation Gridlock.
” People — in their cars , on sidewalks , lawns and on the Capitol steps — are gathered to protest Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer ’ s “ Stay Home , Stay Safe ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want some of the restrictions eased , and the state economy re-started .
WWJ Newsradio 950 ’ s Charlie Langton reported it appeared thousands of people were in attendance ; the lineup of cars for the protest extended for miles outside of Lansing .
ANOTHER MONTH : DC extends stay-at-home order through May 15… Cuomo to order all to wear masks…

Far-right US politicians label lockdowns anti-constitutional
SPOKANE, Wash. (AP) — In deeply conservative eastern Washington state, a prominent state lawmaker kicked out of his Republican Party caucus labels the coronavirus as a foreign bio-weapon, accuses Marxists of using the pandemic to advance totalitarianism and rails against lockdown restrictions imposed by the Democratic governor.
A California teleconference last week to consider sport fishing limits in rural areas unprepared to handle influxes of anglers descended into chaos — with callers branding state officials as “fascists” and declaring it was time to “make fishing great again.”
Across the U.S., elected officials from Pennsylvania to Oklahoma suspicious of big government and outraged with orders to close churches, gun stores and other businesses deemed non-essential insist that the public health response is being used as an excuse to trample constitutional rights.
Furious Crowd Gathers At Michigan Capitol To Protest ‘Stay Home’ Order
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
(WWJ) Large and raucous crowds showed up in Michigan’s capital Wednesday for what organizers are calling “Operation Gridlock.”
People — in their cars, on sidewalks, lawns and on the Capitol steps — are gathered to protest Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s “Stay Home, Stay Safe” executive order. Organizers of the rally want some of the restrictions eased, and the state economy re-started.
WWJ Newsradio 950’s Charlie Langton reported it appeared thousands of people were in attendance; the lineup of cars for the protest extended for miles outside of Lansing.
ANOTHER MONTH: DC extends stay-at-home order through May 15…
Cuomo to order all to wear masks…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Knoxville, TN mayor KANE: Outlines 6-week reopening plan from coronavirus shutdown

Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs has unveiled his proposal to begin a phased reopening of businesses , parks and places of worship that have been closed to combat the spread of the coronavirus .
Jacobs sent a copy of his plan to Gov .
Bill Lee outlining a plan to return most businesses to “ fully operational ” in six weeks , so long as there are no negative changes in COVID-19 hospitalizations .
“ Gov .
Lee ’ s decision to extend the safer-at-home order was made taking statewide numbers into account , ” Jacobs said .
“ Knox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and as long as our community continues to make good and responsible choices , I believe we can , and should , start taking steps to reopen businesses .
“ The longer the economy is shut down , the more difficult it ’ s going to be to get it back on track.
” The news comes as the Knox County Health Department released its active coronavirus cases count at 35 on Tuesday , down from 36 on Monday .
Jacobs cited the stabilizing numbers in his announcement .
Knox County ranks sixth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 cases .
The proposal suggests that businesses should require sick employees to stay home , promote frequent handwashing and proper hygiene , and consider using face coverings if physical distancing isn ’ t possible .
Other guidelines target venues , restaurants and bars , retail stores , personal appearance businesses and health clubs , parks and playgrounds .
“ It isn ’ t a choice between healthy people and a healthy economy , or it shouldn ’ t be , ” Jacobs said .
“ The general public doesn ’ t need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so people will stay home .

Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs has unveiled his proposal to begin a phased reopening of businesses, parks and places of worship that have been closed to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
Jacobs sent a copy of his plan to Gov. Bill Lee outlining a plan to return most businesses to “fully operational” in six weeks, so long as there are no negative changes in COVID-19 hospitalizations.
“Gov. Lee’s decision to extend the safer-at-home order was made taking statewide numbers into account,” Jacobs said. “Knox County is one of 95 Tennessee counties and as long as our community continues to make good and responsible choices, I believe we can, and should, start taking steps to reopen businesses.
“The longer the economy is shut down, the more difficult it’s going to be to get it back on track.”
The news comes as the Knox County Health Department released its active coronavirus cases count at 35 on Tuesday, down from 36 on Monday. Jacobs cited the stabilizing numbers in his announcement.
Knox County ranks sixth in the state in the number of COVID-19 cases.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The proposal suggests that businesses should require sick employees to stay home, promote frequent handwashing and proper hygiene, and consider using face coverings if physical distancing isn’t possible.
Other guidelines target venues, restaurants and bars, retail stores, personal appearance businesses and health clubs, parks and playgrounds.
“It isn’t a choice between healthy people and a healthy economy, or it shouldn’t be,” Jacobs said. “The general public doesn’t need the government ordering an economic shut down so people will stay home.
MORE:
www.wate.com/news/local-news/knox-county-mayor-glenn-jacobs-outlines-6-week-phased-reopening-plan-from-coronavirus-shutdown/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--The US & EU – On The Road To Bankruptcy

The US & EU – On The Road To Bankruptcy

Most people don ’ t understand the cause of hyperinflation .
Many argue that we can ’ t get hyperinflation since asset prices are now under pressure and there is no demand led inflation as most people currently have very little money .
What few people understand is that hyperinflation is a currency driven event .
It doesn ’ t arise as a result of prices going up .
Instead hyperinflation comes from the value of the currency imploding .
In every case of hyperinflation in history , it is the collapse of the currency that is the cause .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Well , exactly what is happening now around the world , namely unlimited money printing and credit creation .
Led by the Fed and the ECB , the whole world is now extending trillions in loans , subsidies and guarantees to companies and individuals .
Government deficits are now surging as tax revenues collapse and expenditures increase rapidly .
So governments will also need to print money to finance their galloping deficits .
The inevitable outcome will be bankruptcy although few nations will admit it .
I produced the debt chart below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2017 when Trump was elected president .
I forecast then that US debt would reach $ 28 trillion by the end of 2021 and double by 2028 to $ 40 trillion .
These kind of debt increases seemed incredible at the time .
But very few people study history and learn from the past .
All we need to do is to go back to 1981 when Reagan became president .
Since 1981 US Federal debt has on average doubled every 8 years , without fail .
Obama doubled debt during his reign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Thus , it was totally in line with history that the US debt would be $ 40 trillion 8 years later , in 2025 .
Until a couple of months ago , it seemed totally impossible to reach these high debt levels .
But today it looks like we could exceed those figures by a big margin , especially the 2025 one of $ 40T .
I am not surprised .
Because when you make these forecasts you know that there are always unforeseen events that will occur to fulfil them .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and debt bubble in history had to end with an unexpected event .
The bottom part of the graph above shows US tax revenue .
It was $ 0.6T in 1981 .
Currently it is $ 3.4T .
With the present situation in the US , it is likely that tax revenue will collapse , thus increasing the deficit further .
But even at the current level of $ 3.4T , tax revenue has gone up less than 6X since 1981 whilst debt has gone up 31X .
As the banking system comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asset prices together with the $ 2T derivatives going up in smoke , the US will be looking at an economic and social situation which is terrifying .
With falling tax revenues and galloping debt and deficit , the US is clearly on the way to default and bankruptcy .
SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE FINANCES OF A BANKRUPT STATE .
No additional printing of worthless dollars will remedy the situation .
All it will lead to is a collapse of the dollar and an implosion of US debt .
SO HYPERINFLATION @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won ’ t be alone , since sadly the EU ( ED-European Disunion ) and many other nations will encounter a similar destiny .
A bankrupt world is the inevitable result of the irresponsible actions of central banks and governments in the last 100 years .
As Voltaire said already back in 1729 : PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY REACHES ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO The table below shows all the major currencies since the Fed was created in 1913 .
The straight line at 100 is Gold which represents stable purchasing power .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have gone down 97-99 % against gold .
ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES HAVE LOST 82-87 % THIS CENTURY If we look at more recent periods , the table below shows the currencies ’ decline since 1971 and 2000 .
Since 1971 they are all down 98-99 % , except for the Swiss franc and Yen , thanks to Nixon closing the gold window .
What few people realise is that since 2000 all the major currencies , except for the Swiss franc , are down 82-87 % .
This means that in real purchasing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have lost more than 4/5th of their value .
So the final leg of the destruction of the current monetary system started 20 years ago .
And from 2020 for the next 1-3 years , we will experience the final destruction down to Zero .
MOST CURRENCIES WILL LOSE 100 % IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS But what we must remember is that final fall to the bottom involves a 100 % fall from today in the value of the Dollar , Euro , Yen etc .
It was always clear that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the others in history since no currency has ever survived in tact with the exception of gold .
And the world ’ s central banks have now started the process that will lead to the demise of paper money as we know it today .
The facts and tables in this article are indisputable .
The message couldn ’ t be clearer .
Still , most people don ’ t get gold , since less than 0.5 % of world financial assets are invested in physical gold .
As I have outlined in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ property will lose 90-99 % in real terms , against gold , in the next few years .
Many bonds will lose 100 % .
And paper money will lose 100 % .
LAST CHANCE TO SAVE YOUR WEALTH Investors who don ’ t take immediate action are going to lose most of their investment assets .
If you own property without debt , you can at least hold on to it but you will stop looking at it as an investment .
But sadly most investors in conventional assets , like stocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hoping that Central Banks and Governments will save them yet one more time .
But it won ’ t happen this time as more worthless debt can not solve a debt problem .
So I urge you to take action now .
Stocks will very soon start the next downleg in the secular downturn that started a few weeks ago .
So there is a last little window to get out at what will seem like fantastic prices just a few months from here .
Gold has now started the acceleration phase and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for in US dollars .
The 2011 high of $ 1,920 will soon be reached on the way to much , much higher levels .
The three biggest gold refiners in the world in the Swiss canton of Ticino are now operating again but only at 1/4 of normal capacity .
So there will be very little physical gold available .
Our company can still get hold of gold but the tight supply situation will lead to prices going up rapidly and spreads widening .
Remember that you are not holding gold for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Instead , physical , and only physical , gold is life insurance against a collapsing world economy and monetary system .

Most people don’t understand the cause of hyperinflation. Many argue that we can’t get hyperinflation since asset prices are now under pressure and there is no demand led inflation as most people currently have very little money.
What few people understand is that hyperinflation is a currency driven event. It doesn’t arise as a result of prices going up. Instead hyperinflation comes from the value of the currency imploding. In every case of hyperinflation in history, it is the collapse of the currency that is the cause. So what leads to the currency collapsing. Well, exactly what is happening now around the world, namely unlimited money printing and credit creation. Led by the Fed and the ECB, the whole world is now extending trillions in loans, subsidies and guarantees to companies and individuals. Government deficits are now surging as tax revenues collapse and expenditures increase rapidly. So governments will also need to print money to finance their galloping deficits. The inevitable outcome will be bankruptcy although few nations will admit it.
US DEBT DOUBLES EVERY 8 YEARS
I produced the debt chart below the first time at the end of 2017 when Trump was elected president. I forecast then that US debt would reach $28 trillion by the end of 2021 and double by 2028 to $40 trillion. These kind of debt increases seemed incredible at the time. But very few people study history and learn from the past.
All we need to do is to go back to 1981 when Reagan became president. Since 1981 US Federal debt has on average doubled every 8 years, without fail. Obama doubled debt during his reign from $10 to $20 trillion. Thus, it was totally in line with history that the US debt would be $40 trillion 8 years later, in 2025.
Until a couple of months ago, it seemed totally impossible to reach these high debt levels. But today it looks like we could exceed those figures by a big margin, especially the 2025 one of $40T. I am not surprised. Because when you make these forecasts you know that there are always unforeseen events that will occur to fulfil them. And the end of the biggest asset and debt bubble in history had to end with an unexpected event.
The bottom part of the graph above shows US tax revenue. It was $0.6T in 1981. Currently it is $3.4T. With the present situation in the US, it is likely that tax revenue will collapse, thus increasing the deficit further. But even at the current level of $3.4T, tax revenue has gone up less than 6X since 1981 whilst debt has gone up 31X.
As the banking system comes under pressure with debt defaults and imploding asset prices together with the $2T derivatives going up in smoke, the US will be looking at an economic and social situation which is terrifying.
With falling tax revenues and galloping debt and deficit, the US is clearly on the way to default and bankruptcy.
SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE FINANCES OF A BANKRUPT STATE. No additional printing of worthless dollars will remedy the situation. All it will lead to is a collapse of the dollar and an implosion of US debt. SO HYPERINFLATION HERE WE GO!
But the US won’t be alone, since sadly the EU (ED-European Disunion) and many other nations will encounter a similar destiny. A bankrupt world is the inevitable result of the irresponsible actions of central banks and governments in the last 100 years.
As Voltaire said already back in 1729:
PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY REACHES ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO
The table below shows all the major currencies since the Fed was created in 1913. The straight line at 100 is Gold which represents stable purchasing power. In the last 100 years all major currencies have gone down 97-99% against gold.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES HAVE LOST 82-87% THIS CENTURY
If we look at more recent periods, the table below shows the currencies’ decline since 1971 and 2000. Since 1971 they are all down 98-99%, except for the Swiss franc and Yen, thanks to Nixon closing the gold window.
What few people realise is that since 2000 all the major currencies, except for the Swiss franc, are down 82-87%. This means that in real purchasing power, the currencies in industrialised countries have lost more than 4/5th of their value. So the final leg of the destruction of the current monetary system started 20 years ago. And from 2020 for the next 1-3 years, we will experience the final destruction down to Zero.
MOST CURRENCIES WILL LOSE 100% IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS
But what we must remember is that final fall to the bottom involves a 100% fall from today in the value of the Dollar, Euro, Yen etc. It was always clear that the current monetary system would end like all the others in history since no currency has ever survived in tact with the exception of gold. And the world’s central banks have now started the process that will lead to the demise of paper money as we know it today.
The facts and tables in this article are indisputable. The message couldn’t be clearer.
Still, most people don’t get gold, since less than 0.5% of world financial assets are invested in physical gold.
As I have outlined in many articles, stocks, bonds and property will lose 90-99% in real terms, against gold, in the next few years. Many bonds will lose 100%. And paper money will lose 100%.
LAST CHANCE TO SAVE YOUR WEALTH
Investors who don’t take immediate action are going to lose most of their investment assets. If you own property without debt, you can at least hold on to it but you will stop looking at it as an investment. But sadly most investors in conventional assets, like stocks and bonds, will be paralysed, hoping that Central Banks and Governments will save them yet one more time. But it won’t happen this time as more worthless debt cannot solve a debt problem. So I urge you to take action now.
Stocks will very soon start the next downleg in the secular downturn that started a few weeks ago. So there is a last little window to get out at what will seem like fantastic prices just a few months from here.
Gold has now started the acceleration phase and made new highs in most currencies except for in US dollars. The 2011 high of $1,920 will soon be reached on the way to much, much higher levels.
The three biggest gold refiners in the world in the Swiss canton of Ticino are now operating again but only at 1/4 of normal capacity. So there will be very little physical gold available. Our company can still get hold of gold but the tight supply situation will lead to prices going up rapidly and spreads widening.
Remember that you are not holding gold for illusory gains in worthless paper money. Instead, physical, and only physical, gold is life insurance against a collapsing world economy and monetary system.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--My report card for the Bank of England in the Covid-19 crisis

The advent of the Corona Virus pandemic has seen the Bank of England expand its activity beyond what we already considered to be extraordinary levels .
There has been very little criticism I think for two reasons .
Many of the new moves are not understood especially by the mainstream media and also they like to copy and paste official communiques of which there have been plenty !
So let us work our way through the new policies to see the state of play .
Last week we looked at two factors here .
The first is the QE ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ running at a weekly rate of £13.5 billion and have so far totalled £35 billion in this phase .
This meant that last week the UK did this .
So issued debt in gross terms but via the Bank of England bought more .
That looks to be a similar situation for this week as it buys the same amount and the UK Debt Management Office plans to issue some £10 billion of UK Gilts in nominal terms .
The amount raised will be more than that ( the surge in the Gilt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 100 ) but as you can see we look to be heading for a similar result .
So we can switch now to the result .
On a basic level we see that the UK government can finance itself and at quite a rate as we are issuing debt at a rate of £12 billion or so a week .
This is quite a rate !
Also we are able to do so very cheaply as the fifty-year yield is 0.48 % and the benchmark ten-year is 0.31 % as I type @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let me add in the Ways and Means account which some got so excited about at the end of last week .
This is because it is likely to be smaller than the amounts above .
I have just asked them for this week ’ s update .
This is a much more awkward area for the Bank of England .
That may be why in spite of Corporate Bond purchases being ongoing its data only goes up to April 1st !
Actually the use of April Fools Day is appropriate in some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Regular readers will recall that last time the Bank of England struggled to find corporate bonds to buy and ended up buying the Danish shipping company Maersk .
No doubt it and the Danish government were grateful .
Well on today ’ s list are that well know UK technology company Apple as well as IBM .
Whilst you could make a case for buying BMW via the Mini operations here will the Bank of England be racing the ECB to buy its bonds ?
Anyway the operation will provide us with plenty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any guide .
Let me open with the scale of the operation so far .
It seems worthy enough but as we look at the details I start to get troubled .
This has a new incarnation as after all we must keep supporting The Precious .
I wonder how they would define fake economy lending ?
We may yet find out .
Anyway as is typical the help for smaller businesses is not yet in play so this is something of a fail and may yet be a grand fail as there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses have folded already .
There are other reports of problems in funding getting to smaller businesses .
There is quite a contrast here between smaller businesses who need money now but are not getting it and The Precious who still have some £107 billion from the previous Term Funding Scheme in their coffers .
There are mortgage holidays in play so let us look as those as after all it is the area about which the Bank of England is most concerned if its track record is any guide .
However that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we note this .
Here is a song for the banks from Hot Chocolate .
These are proving to be a success on two fronts .
Firstly US Dollars are available and secondly the amounts required have been falling .
At the peak some US $ 37.7 billion required but as of yesterday that had fallen to US $ 21.9 billion .
As you can see there are various layers here .
If we start with what has become the modus operandi for QE which is facilitating and financing government spending then it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borrow both in size and extremely cheaply right now .
That is a good idea for the crisis but of course we know that such things have a habit of becoming permanent and then the issue changes .
Next we see that larger companies will be pleased with the Bank of England action including some foreign ones .
This creates problems because whilst I do not want companies to fail because of cash flow issues created by the pandemic we arrive yet again at the Zombie businesses issue .
One of the reasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit crunch was that the march of the Zombies just carried on and on and on .
In this category we can class the banks because in spite of the “ resilient ” rhetoric and all the support we see that we are invested in Royal Bank of Scotland at around a fiver compared to a share price of £1.10 .
Smaller companies will be wondering when the help will start ?
Let me take you back to March 26th .
As to mortgage lending we see that the banks will be getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are piling debt excuse me help on borrowers at a lot higher rate .
So it is a patchy report card where there are successes but they are not reaching the ordinary person or business .
Reality contrasts starkly with the words of Governor Carney from the 11th of March .

by Shaun Richards
The advent of the Corona Virus pandemic has seen the Bank of England expand its activity beyond what we already considered to be extraordinary levels. There has been very little criticism I think for two reasons. Many of the new moves are not understood especially by the mainstream media and also they like to copy and paste official communiques of which there have been plenty! So let us work our way through the new policies to see the state of play.
Financing the UK government’s borrowing
Last week we looked at two factors here. The first is the QE ( Quantitative Easing) purchases which are presently running at a weekly rate of £13.5 billion and have so far totalled £35 billion in this phase. This meant that last week the UK did this.
if we allow for the Bank of England purchases we remain net buyers of the order of £1.3 billion.
So issued debt in gross terms but via the Bank of England bought more. That looks to be a similar situation for this week as it buys the same amount and the UK Debt Management Office plans to issue some £10 billion of UK Gilts in nominal terms. The amount raised will be more than that ( the surge in the Gilt market means the majority of Gilts trade over 100) but as you can see we look to be heading for a similar result.
So we can switch now to the result. On a basic level we see that the UK government can finance itself and at quite a rate as we are issuing debt at a rate of £12 billion or so a week. This is quite a rate! Also we are able to do so very cheaply as the fifty-year yield is 0.48% and the benchmark ten-year is 0.31% as I type this.
On a more minor level let me add in the Ways and Means account which some got so excited about at the end of last week. This is because it is likely to be smaller than the amounts above. I have just asked them for this week’s update.
Corporate Bonds
This is a much more awkward area for the Bank of England. That may be why in spite of Corporate Bond purchases being ongoing its data only goes up to April 1st! Actually the use of April Fools Day is appropriate in some ways and let me explain why. Regular readers will recall that last time the Bank of England struggled to find corporate bonds to buy and ended up buying the Danish shipping company Maersk. No doubt it and the Danish government were grateful.
Well on today’s list are that well know UK technology company Apple as well as IBM. Whilst you could make a case for buying BMW via the Mini operations here will the Bank of England be racing the ECB to buy its bonds? Anyway the operation will provide us with plenty of amusement over time if history is any guide.
Covid Corporate Financing Facility
Let me open with the scale of the operation so far.
Total amount of CP purchased since 02 April
£3.626bn (data as at close 8 April 2020).
It seems worthy enough but as we look at the details I start to get troubled.
The facility is designed to support liquidity among larger firms, helping them to bridge coronavirus disruption to their cash flows through the purchase of short-term debt in the form of commercial paper.
Term Funding Scheme
This has a new incarnation as after all we must keep supporting The Precious.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Following today’s special meeting of the MPC the Initial Borrowing Allowance for the TFSME will be increased from 5% to 10% of participants’ stock of real economy lending, based on the Base Stock of Applicable Loans.
I wonder how they would define fake economy lending? We may yet find out. Anyway as is typical the help for smaller businesses is not yet in play so this is something of a fail and may yet be a grand fail as there are signs that more than a few businesses have folded already.
One thing that finally swung my partners into throwing up their hands and decide retiring was preferable was the hoops we’d have had to jump through to raise money at short notice. ( @MattBrookes3)
There are other reports of problems in funding getting to smaller businesses.
Gary Crosbie wants to keep his staff on, but like other small firms, his profitable business now faces running out of cash owing to the coronavirus shutdown. Mr Crosbie runs Inter-Refurb, which refurbishes pubs, hotels and restaurants. He says he can demonstrate three years of profits, with £50,000 cash in the bank. Yet because his bank decided it didn’t wish to support the construction industry, he failed the test that required banks only to lend according to their pre-shutdown criteria. He was rejected for a government-backed loan last week. ( Andy Verity of the BBC)
There is quite a contrast here between smaller businesses who need money now but are not getting it and The Precious who still have some £107 billion from the previous Term Funding Scheme in their coffers.
Mortgages
There are mortgage holidays in play so let us look as those as after all it is the area about which the Bank of England is most concerned if its track record is any guide.
Lenders have provided over 1.2 million mortgage payment holidays to households whose finances have been impacted by Covid-19, UK Finance has revealed today. On 17 March, just under a month ago, mortgage lenders announced they would support customers facing financial difficulties due to the Covid-19 crisis. Three weeks later, by Wednesday 8 April, over 1.2 million mortgage borrowers had been offered a payment holiday by their lender. The action taken by lenders means that one in nine mortgages in the UK are now subject to a payment holiday, helping households across the country through this difficult time. For the average mortgage holder, the payment holiday amounts to £260 per month of suspended interest payments, with many benefitting from the option of extending the scheme for up to three months. ( UK Finance)
However that starts to look like PR spinning when we note this.
And once credit card or mortgage payment holidays end (1 in 9 of us have the latter), we’ll have more debt to pay off – because what isn’t talked about enough is that interest charges will still being calculated – and then added to the amount owed. ( @GCGodfrey)
Here is a song for the banks from Hot Chocolate.
So you win again, you win again
Here I stand again, the loser.
US Dollar Liquidity Swaps
These are proving to be a success on two fronts. Firstly US Dollars are available and secondly the amounts required have been falling. At the peak some US $37.7 billion required but as of yesterday that had fallen to US $21.9 billion.
Comment
As you can see there are various layers here. If we start with what has become the modus operandi for QE which is facilitating and financing government spending then it is a success. The UK can borrow both in size and extremely cheaply right now. That is a good idea for the crisis but of course we know that such things have a habit of becoming permanent and then the issue changes.
Next we see that larger companies will be pleased with the Bank of England action including some foreign ones. This creates problems because whilst I do not want companies to fail because of cash flow issues created by the pandemic we arrive yet again at the Zombie businesses issue. One of the reasons we spent so much time in the credit crunch was that the march of the Zombies just carried on and on and on. In this category we can class the banks because in spite of the “resilient” rhetoric and all the support we see that we are invested in Royal Bank of Scotland at around a fiver compared to a share price of £1.10.
Smaller companies will be wondering when the help will start? Let me take you back to March 26th.
Hopefully my late father is no longer spinning quite so fast in his Memorial Vault ( these things have grand names). That is assuming ashes can spin! We seem to be taking a familiar path where out of touch central bankers claim to be boosting business but we find that the cheap liquidity is indeed poured into the banks.
As to mortgage lending we see that the banks will be getting liquidity at 0.1%, but they are piling debt excuse me help on borrowers at a lot higher rate.
So it is a patchy report card where there are successes but they are not reaching the ordinary person or business. Reality contrasts starkly with the words of Governor Carney from the 11th of March.
I’ll just reiterate that, by providing much more flexibility, an ability to-, the banking system has been put in
a position today where they could make loans to the hardest hit businesses, in fact the entire corporate
sector, not just the hardest hit businesses and Small and Medium Sized enterprises, thirteen times of
what they lent last year in good times.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--The Front Line: Visualizing the Occupations with the Highest COVID-19 Risk

Many individuals have been practicing social distancing by working from home in recent weeks .
While this arrangement can be a great way to reduce one ’ s exposure to COVID-19 , it ’ s a luxury that ’ s available to just 29 % of Americans .
The situation for the remaining 71 % is uncertain , to say the least .
A significant portion of the population has lost their jobs due to business shutdowns and mandated lockdown orders .
Others employed in “ essential services ” have continued working as usual , but may face a higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To that end , today ’ s infographic leverages data from the Occupational Information Network to determine which occupations face the highest risk of exposure to COVID-19 .
Our score for each occupation is based on evaluating the data on three physical job attributes covered in the occupational database : • Contact With Others : How much does this job require the worker to be in contact with others in order to perform it ?
• Physical Proximity : To what extent does this job require the worker to perform tasks in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Exposure to Disease and Infection : How often does this job require exposure to hazardous conditions ?
We assigned each attribute an equal weight , then aggregated them to arrive at a final COVID-19 Risk Score between 0 and 100 , with 100 representing the highest possible risk .
Jobs with a risk score below 0.5 were excluded from further analysis .
To narrow down the list , we removed most occupations held by fewer than 20,000 people .
From the remaining pool , we selected 100 well-known occupations , and included the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ associated with each based on BLS data .
While some of these findings may be obvious—nurses and paramedics have a higher chance of exposure to the virus than lawyers and web developers , for example—these datasets allow us to assign a more quantitative figure to each occupation ’ s level of risk .
Recognizing Those On the Front Lines Through the # LightItBlue campaign , communities are recognizing the brave efforts of healthcare workers as they fight the virus firsthand .
However , with fewer than a third of Americans being able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also working on the front lines , and thus deserve our recognition .
Two of these occupations are bus drivers ( 678,260 employed ) and cashiers ( 3,635,559 employed ) , both of which require workers to be in close physical proximity with others .
The services these individuals help to provide are essential , and despite the risks , many have been working throughout the entire pandemic .
Data has also shown that working from home is largely reserved for America ’ s higher earners .
At a time when many Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effects of this inequality can be particularly harsh on those near the bottom of the income spectrum .
If unable to work from home , these individuals will likely face increased health risks on top of their existing financial difficulties .
Looking Out For One Another The COVID-19 pandemic has left few stones unturned , especially when it comes to occupational risks .
Individuals on the front lines , whether they ’ re taking care of patients or stocking grocery shelves , are placing themselves at risk to ensure our communities can continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fortunate enough to work from home can help flatten the curve by continuing to practice safe social distancing , even on weekends .
For reference , we ’ ve also provided the full list of nearly 1,000 occupations , including jobs with fewer than 20,000 workers .
The average risk score of the following 966 jobs is 30.2 .

by visualcapitalist
Many individuals have been practicing social distancing by working from home in recent weeks. While this arrangement can be a great way to reduce one’s exposure to COVID-19, it’s a luxury that’s available to just 29% of Americans.
The situation for the remaining 71% is uncertain, to say the least. A significant portion of the population has lost their jobs due to business shutdowns and mandated lockdown orders. Others employed in “essential services” have continued working as usual, but may face a higher risk of potential exposure to the virus.
To that end, today’s infographic leverages data from the Occupational Information Network to determine which occupations face the highest risk of exposure to COVID-19.
Methodology and Results
Our score for each occupation is based on evaluating the data on three physical job attributes covered in the occupational database:
Contact With Others:
How much does this job require the worker to be in contact with others in order to perform it? Physical Proximity:
To what extent does this job require the worker to perform tasks in close physical proximity to others? Exposure to Disease and Infection:
How often does this job require exposure to hazardous conditions?
We assigned each attribute an equal weight, then aggregated them to arrive at a final COVID-19 Risk Score between 0 and 100, with 100 representing the highest possible risk. Jobs with a risk score below 0.5 were excluded from further analysis.
To narrow down the list, we removed most occupations held by fewer than 20,000 people. From the remaining pool, we selected 100 well-known occupations, and included the average annual income and number of workers associated with each based on BLS data.
While some of these findings may be obvious—nurses and paramedics have a higher chance of exposure to the virus than lawyers and web developers, for example—these datasets allow us to assign a more quantitative figure to each occupation’s level of risk.
Recognizing Those On the Front Lines
Through the #LightItBlue campaign, communities are recognizing the brave efforts of healthcare workers as they fight the virus firsthand. However, with fewer than a third of Americans being able to work from home, many others are also working on the front lines, and thus deserve our recognition.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Two of these occupations are bus drivers (678,260 employed) and cashiers (3,635,559 employed), both of which require workers to be in close physical proximity with others. The services these individuals help to provide are essential, and despite the risks, many have been working throughout the entire pandemic.
Workers in food stores are the ones keeping this nation from going into civil unrest. Because if there is no one working in the stores, we are in trouble.
—John T. Niccollai, President, UFCW Local 464A
Data has also shown that working from home is largely reserved for America’s higher earners.
Income Percentile Percent Able to Work From Home Bottom 25 9.2% 25-50 20.1% 50-75 37.3% Top 25 61.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
At a time when many Americans worry about paying their bills, the effects of this inequality can be particularly harsh on those near the bottom of the income spectrum. If unable to work from home, these individuals will likely face increased health risks on top of their existing financial difficulties.
Looking Out For One Another
The COVID-19 pandemic has left few stones unturned, especially when it comes to occupational risks.
Individuals on the front lines, whether they’re taking care of patients or stocking grocery shelves, are placing themselves at risk to ensure our communities can continue to run smoothly. Meanwhile, those fortunate enough to work from home can help flatten the curve by continuing to practice safe social distancing, even on weekends.
The Full List
For reference, we’ve also provided the full list of nearly 1,000 occupations, including jobs with fewer than 20,000 workers. The average risk score of the following 966 jobs is 30.2.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Can “Sickcare” Survive the Pandemic?

Can “Sickcare” Survive the Pandemic?

Like the rest of the financialization machine , sickcare was never sustainable .
What was once known as healthcare in the U.S. has largely been replaced by sickcare : healthcare was focused on restoring and maintaining health and was owned and managed by community-based non-profit hospitals .
Sickcare is focused on extracting the maximum revenues and profits from managing the chronically ill , and is owned by Corporate America .
Sickcare , by its very nature , stripmines the entire nation to maximize its profits , and does so dishonestly , with obtuse billing , overbilling , prescriptions for costly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been gamed/obscured , and so on .
Since sickcare profits from chronic illness , America is now chronically ill .
Since sickcare profits from over-medicating patients , America is now chronically over-medicated .
As Jim Kunstler observed , sickcare is a racket , which Jim defines : “ By racket , I mean an enterprise organized explicitly to make money dishonestly.
” Ruin Nation .
There are still vestiges of healthcare in the U.S. , but these are being undermined , marginalized or eliminated by the financialization machinery of sickcare .
Financialization is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hollowed it out and left it unable to discern the consequences of a financial system that has become neofeudal , parasitic and predatory .
One such consequence has been the slow decay of healthcare and its transformation into sickcare .
A correspondent who is a physician recently explained the structure of sickcare .
1 .
Businessmen understand healthcare is the best industry to financialize : A. it sells a product that generates its own demand B. is run by no-nothing doctors who let their worldview get in the way of maximizing shareholder value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holy grail–Federal dollars 4 .
Businessmen kick cranky doctors off board who get in the way 5 .
Businessmen hollow out health system as they extract every nickel in value ; compensation , no bid contracts , feather bedding When the inevitable pandemic hits , their hollow organizations don ’ t have the resources to cope , even though that is their core function–remember , this pandemic is NOT a ‘ black swan , ’ black swans come out of no where .
This was perfectly predicable and there was plenty of warning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in leadership accelerates the pandemic effects .
The doctors who could lead have been marginalized so they can only have impact on the tactical side , rather than in leadership .
Look for wholesale leadership changes with maximal visibility among major health systems as they bring in outsiders to try to re-assert their credibility .
These hospitals are gaslighting their staff that previously recommended levels of PPE ( personal protective equipment ) was overkill and that the staff can do just as well with reduced levels of protection .
The staff smell the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign of leaders doing personal care in reduced PPE .
Do they not teach leadership in B-school anymore ?
If you don ’ t share the risk with your troops ( the more intimately , the better ) you lose credibility .
If there ever is an actual reckoning , the leaders are going to regret not emptying a few bedpans .
I have come to the conclusion that our nation and society is no longer nimble enough to survive .
That ’ s sickcare in a nutshell .
Like the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustainable .
The pandemic is merely the catalyst that is stripping away the PR illusions that have cloaked the looting , the fraud , the racketeering and profiteering , and the betrayal of everything healthcare once stood for .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Like the rest of the financialization machine, sickcare was never sustainable.
What was once known as healthcare in the U.S. has largely been replaced by sickcare: healthcare was focused on restoring and maintaining health and was owned and managed by community-based non-profit hospitals.
Sickcare is focused on extracting the maximum revenues and profits from managing the chronically ill, and is owned by Corporate America. Sickcare, by its very nature, stripmines the entire nation to maximize its profits, and does so dishonestly, with obtuse billing, overbilling, prescriptions for costly medications whose side effects and efficacy have been gamed/obscured, and so on.
Since sickcare profits from chronic illness, America is now chronically ill. Since sickcare profits from over-medicating patients, America is now chronically over-medicated.
As Jim Kunstler observed, sickcare is a racket, which Jim defines: “By racket, I mean an enterprise organized explicitly to make money dishonestly.” Ruin Nation.
There are still vestiges of healthcare in the U.S., but these are being undermined, marginalized or eliminated by the financialization machinery of sickcare. Financialization is the disease that has consumed America, hollowed it out and left it unable to discern the consequences of a financial system that has become neofeudal, parasitic and predatory. One such consequence has been the slow decay of healthcare and its transformation into sickcare.
A correspondent who is a physician recently explained the structure of sickcare.
1. Businessmen understand healthcare is the best industry to financialize:
A. it sells a product that generates its own demand
B. is run by no-nothing doctors who let their worldview get in the way of maximizing shareholder value
C. is a direct conduit to the holy grail–Federal dollars
2. Businessmen get on board
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3. Businessmen begin applying business principles to healthcare
4. Businessmen kick cranky doctors off board who get in the way
5. Businessmen hollow out health system as they extract every nickel in value; compensation, no bid contracts, feather bedding
When the inevitable pandemic hits, their hollow organizations don’t have the resources to cope, even though that is their core function–remember, this pandemic is NOT a ‘black swan,’ black swans come out of no where. This was perfectly predicable and there was plenty of warning.
6. The lack of credibility in leadership accelerates the pandemic effects. The doctors who could lead have been marginalized so they can only have impact on the tactical side, rather than in leadership.
Look for wholesale leadership changes with maximal visibility among major health systems as they bring in outsiders to try to re-assert their credibility.
Spoiler Alert: It won’t work.
These hospitals are gaslighting their staff that previously recommended levels of PPE (personal protective equipment) was overkill and that the staff can do just as well with reduced levels of protection.
The staff smell the fire and are behaving accordingly.
No sign of leaders doing personal care in reduced PPE.
Do they not teach leadership in B-school anymore? If you don’t share the risk with your troops (the more intimately, the better) you lose credibility. If there ever is an actual reckoning, the leaders are going to regret not emptying a few bedpans.
I have come to the conclusion that our nation and society is no longer nimble enough to survive.
That’s sickcare in a nutshell. Like the rest of the financialization machine, sickcare was never sustainable. The pandemic is merely the catalyst that is stripping away the PR illusions that have cloaked the looting, the fraud, the racketeering and profiteering, and the betrayal of everything healthcare once stood for.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--BILL WOULD GIVE AMERICANS $2,000 A MONTH DURING PANDEMIC

Here are the eligibility requirements : • Every American adult age 16 and older making less than $ 130,000 annually @ @ @ @ @ 2,000 per month .
• Married couples earning less than $ 260,000 would receive at @ @ @ @ @ .
• Qualifying families with children will receive an additional $ 500 per child – @ @ @ @ @ up to three children .
• For example , a married couple making under $ @ @ @ @ @ receive $ 5,500 per month .
• Those who had no earnings , were unemployed @ @ @ @ @ would also be eligible .
• Those who were not eligible in 2019 or 2018 @ @ @ @ @ 2020 , could submit at least two consecutive months of paychecks to verify income eligibility @ @ @ @ @ for the People Act also expands the program to millions more Americans who were excluded @ @ @ @ @ – such as college students and adults with disabilities who are still claimed as a @ @ @ @ @ receive the payment and their parent or guardian will receive the dependent credit .

Here are the eligibility requirements:
Eligibility:
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Every American adult age 16 and older making less than $130,000 annually would receive at least $2,000 per month.
Married couples earning less than $260,000 would receive at least $4,000 per month.
Qualifying families with children will receive an additional $500 per child – families will receive funds for up to three children.
For example, a married couple making under $260K with 3 kids would receive $5,500 per month.
Those who had no earnings, were unemployed, or are currently unemployed would also be eligible.
Those who were not eligible in 2019 or 2018 but would be eligible in 2020, could submit at least two consecutive months of paychecks to verify income eligibility.
The Emergency Money for the People Act also expands the program to millions more Americans who were excluded from the CARES cash rebates – such as college students and adults with disabilities who are still claimed as a dependent. The individual will receive the payment and their parent or guardian will receive the dependent credit.
pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/04/15/emergency-money-for-the-people-act-stimulus-bill/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Bending the Inflation Curve

Bending the Inflation Curve

Our responses to the coronavirus threat , necessary though they may be , are creating massive supply and demand shocks , the rapidity of which is like nothing seen in centuries , if ever .
The Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing unprecedented things .
Some think inflation will be the result .
While that may happen eventually , I believe we will first go through the most massive deflationary shock of all time .
Milton Friedman famously said , “ … inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
” During the timeframe in which he and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study , there was clearly a correlation between money supply and inflation .
What is not often noted is that the velocity of money ( i.e.
, the rate at which money changes hands ) was stable during that time .
When the velocity of money is falling , monetary policy which would otherwise cause inflation doesn ’ t seem to do so .
Here is Lacy Hunt ’ s latest velocity chart .
You have to go back to 1949 to find a time when it was lower than today , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postwar lows .
This was before the coronavirus shutdowns .
Let me crawl out on a limb and suggest that the velocity of money is now going to drop even further .
Deflation is not your friend .
Let me offer Mauldin ’ s corollary to Milton Friedman ’ s famous statement : Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Function of Demand We have simply destroyed demand by locking down the country .
And it should be clear that we can not turn a switch to bring it back .
How soon will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crowds , restaurants , movie theaters , sporting events , hotels , vacation destinations , and all the other areas where we congregate as human beings ?
Certainly , some of the economy will start looking normal .
But how many workers will it need ?
How have our buying patterns changed ?
We are learning that we can work from home .
Zoom and other services have had their weaknesses exposed , but they will improve .
This is going to make working from home easier and more common .
Multiplied across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the demand for office space will drop , which means prices for office space will drop .
That is deflation , gentle reader .
Even if the Federal Reserve decides to buy office space ( which it won ’ t ) , that is not going to increase demand .
Ditto for 100 other industries .
Think about restaurant buildings .
Builders and tenants go to tremendous expense to create the kitchens , which means if a restaurant goes out of business , the property owner typically has to find another restaurant .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
At some point supply and demand will balance , but I don ’ t think it will be in three months .
Three years ?
Maybe .
Lacy Hunt thinks it will be a few years longer .
So do some of my other economically brilliant friends .
But whether it is three months or three quarters or 3+ years , it will happen .
At that point we have the potential for an inflationary episode if the Federal Reserve keeps stimulating and the government keeps running massive deficits .
If they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2 to 3 % level and hopefully not higher .
If they don ’ t act responsibly ?
All bets are off .
But understand this : Demand has to come back , and in size , in order to spark inflation .
Yet in this situation people will want to save , perhaps more than they ever have in their lives .
Purchases are going to be put off if they can be .
Now , many economists would not talk about supply and demand so much as about the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , potential output also drops .
How will that take ?
No one knows .
We have never seen anything like this .
Nor have we seen the last of it , and we probably won ’ t until there ’ s a vaccine .

by John Mauldin
Our responses to the coronavirus threat, necessary though they may be, are creating massive supply and demand shocks, the rapidity of which is like nothing seen in centuries, if ever.
The Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing unprecedented things. Some think inflation will be the result. While that may happen eventually, I believe we will first go through the most massive deflationary shock of all time.
Milton Friedman famously said, “… inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” During the timeframe in which he and his colleague Anna Schwartz did their famous study, there was clearly a correlation between money supply and inflation. What is not often noted is that the velocity of money (i.e., the rate at which money changes hands) was stable during that time.
When the velocity of money is falling, monetary policy which would otherwise cause inflation doesn’t seem to do so.
Here is Lacy Hunt’s latest velocity chart. You have to go back to 1949 to find a time when it was lower than today, and it was actually rising rapidly off the postwar lows. This was before the coronavirus shutdowns. Let me crawl out on a limb and suggest that the velocity of money is now going to drop even further. Deflation is not your friend.
Source: Hoisington Investment Management
Let me offer Mauldin’s corollary to Milton Friedman’s famous statement:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Function of Demand
We have simply destroyed demand by locking down the country. And it should be clear that we cannot turn a switch to bring it back. How soon will we feel like going back into large crowds, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting events, hotels, vacation destinations, and all the other areas where we congregate as human beings? Certainly, some of the economy will start looking normal. But how many workers will it need?
How have our buying patterns changed? We are learning that we can work from home. Zoom and other services have had their weaknesses exposed, but they will improve. This is going to make working from home easier and more common.
Multiplied across thousands of large companies, that means the demand for office space will drop, which means prices for office space will drop. That is deflation, gentle reader. Even if the Federal Reserve decides to buy office space (which it won’t), that is not going to increase demand. Ditto for 100 other industries. Think about restaurant buildings. Builders and tenants go to tremendous expense to create the kitchens, which means if a restaurant goes out of business, the property owner typically has to find another restaurant. How likely is that to happen today?
At some point supply and demand will balance, but I don’t think it will be in three months. Three years? Maybe. Lacy Hunt thinks it will be a few years longer. So do some of my other economically brilliant friends.
But whether it is three months or three quarters or 3+ years, it will happen. At that point we have the potential for an inflationary episode if the Federal Reserve keeps stimulating and the government keeps running massive deficits. If they act responsibly, inflation could rise to the 2 to 3% level and hopefully not higher. If they don’t act responsibly? All bets are off.
But understand this: Demand has to come back, and in size, in order to spark inflation. Yet in this situation people will want to save, perhaps more than they ever have in their lives. Purchases are going to be put off if they can be.
Now, many economists would not talk about supply and demand so much as about the “output gap.” As businesses go away, potential output also drops. How will that take? No one knows.
We have never seen anything like this. Nor have we seen the last of it, and we probably won’t until there’s a vaccine.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Global Economic Collapse and the Mountain of Debt! Millions Can’t Pay Their Bills!

Do you think that we will see more risk taking by corporations now that the Fed is bailing them all out ?
The Fed has printed $ 1.6 trillion in a matter of 4 weeks for just one of their many , many programs .
That has never happened before .
Not even close .
Many big money managers have now gone all in , calling the bottom .
Meanwhile , we are clearly about to face the most shocking economic collapse as millions of Americans have found themselves without a job , and no way to pay their bills @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by a $ 1200 check in the mail .
Brace for impact .
The Federal Reserve ’ s Recent Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Coronavirus US : Thousands of cars line up at LA food bank | Daily Mail Online Newsroom – American Airlines To Receive $ 5.8 Billion in Payroll Support From U.S. Department of the Treasury – American Airlines Group , Inc. American hauls in $ 5.8B and asks Treasury for more ( NASDAQ : AAL ) | @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contract by 3 % due to coronavirus Goldman : Downturn will be four times worse than the financial crisis JPMorgan Prepares for Wave of Defaults Linked to Coronavirus Shutdown – WSJ

Do you think that we will see more risk taking by corporations now that the Fed is bailing them all out?
The Fed has printed $1.6 trillion in a matter of 4 weeks for just one of their many, many programs. That has never happened before. Not even close. Many big money managers have now gone all in, calling the bottom. Meanwhile, we are clearly about to face the most shocking economic collapse as millions of Americans have found themselves without a job, and no way to pay their bills. This cannot be turned around by a $1200 check in the mail. Brace for impact.
The Federal Reserve’s Recent Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/log200414
Wall Street feasts on federal coronavirus aid while Main Street starves
nypost.com/2020/04/14/wall-street-feasts-on-federal-coronavirus-aid-while-main-street-starves/
Coronavirus US: Thousands of cars line up at LA food bank | Daily Mail Online
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8218267/Thousands-cars-line-Los-Angeles-food-bank.html
Ruth’s Chris Steak House Gets $20 Million From Coronavirus Aid Program – WSJ
www.wsj.com/articles/ruths-chris-steak-house-gets-20-million-from-coronavirus-aid-program-11586895864
Tesla Seeks Rent Savings Amid Coronavirus Crunch – WSJ
www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-seeks-rent-savings-amid-coronavirus-crunch-11586823630
Hedge Fund Managers Claiming Bailouts as Small Businesses – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/hedge-fund-managers-are-claiming-bailouts-as-small-businesses
Newsroom – American Airlines To Receive $5.8 Billion in Payroll Support From U.S. Department of the Treasury – American Airlines Group, Inc.
news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-To-Receive-58-Billion-in-Payroll-Support-From-US-Department-of-the-Treasury-OPS-DIS-04/default.aspx
Jeff Bezos Gains $24 Billion While World’s Rich Reap Bailout Rewards
finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-gains-24-billion-205201129.html
American hauls in $5.8B and asks Treasury for more (NASDAQ:AAL) | Seeking Alpha
seekingalpha.com/news/3560715-american-hauls-in-5_8b-and-asks-treasury-for
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
IMF: Global economy to contract by 3% due to coronavirus
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/imf-global-economy-to-contract-by-3percent-due-to-coronavirus.html
Goldman: Downturn will be four times worse than the financial crisis
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/goldman-downturn-will-be-four-times-worse-than-the-financial-crisis.html
JPMorgan Prepares for Wave of Defaults Linked to Coronavirus Shutdown – WSJ
www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-reports-profit-falls-69-amid-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak-11586862723
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings Q1 2020 show big decline
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-earnings-q1-2020.html
Coronavirus pushes annual deficit forecasts toward $4 trillion – Roll Call
www.rollcall.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-pushes-annual-deficit-forecasts-toward-4-trillion/
Small-business funds dwindle as virus aid package sputters – Roll Call
www.rollcall.com/2020/04/13/small-business-funds-dwindle-as-virus-aid-package-sputters/
Memos from Howard Marks
www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
Stock-market investing strategy, recommendations for coronavirus: MS – Business Insider
www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-investing-strategy-recommendations-tips-for-coronavirus-morgan-stanley-2020-4
Jim Cramer on ‘Mad Money’ viral pic: ‘Seething anger’ for Wall Street
www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html
Food supply worries grow after outbreak closes Smithfield meat plant | TheHill
thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/492625-food-supply-worries-grow-after-outbreak-closes


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--WELL, IT’S THE WAPO, THAT’S WHO THEY ARE, THAT’S WHAT THEY DO:

Another Dishonest Smear By the Washington Post .
But wait !
It is obvious even to a casual reader that the Post ’ s attack makes no sense .
The article acknowledges that the Smithfield plant had already “ been deemed essential by the federal government , ” so no order Noem might have issued would have applied to it in any case .
The Smithfield experience had nothing to do with Noem ’ s policy .
They ’ re not even trying anymore , really .
Plus : The point of the Post story is to convey the impression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voluntary measures , education , persuasion , and close cooperation with federal agencies , other governors , and the private sector is a failure .
Strikingly absent from the Post ’ s hit job , however , is the bottom line : how many South Dakotans have actually succumbed to COVID-19 ?
The answer : 6 , and none have been reported within the last week .
South Dakota has one of the best coronavirus records of any state , but the Post didn ’ t tell its readers that .
It would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Smithfield story is actually an interesting one , but the Post tells us essentially nothing about it .
First of all , the Sioux Falls facility is massive .
It has 3,700 employees , of whom fewer than 10 % have tested positive for COVID-19 .
The Sioux Falls facility is one of the main pork producers in the U.S. , turning out around 18 million servings of bacon , pork chops , etc.
, per day .
You may wonder , why were so many diagnostic tests performed on employees at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Smithfield implemented an aggressive program , in partnership with two major hospital systems , whereby anyone who entered or left the facility was questioned and had his or her temperature taken .
Anyone who reported having a cough , etc.
, or who showed an elevated temperature was tested for COVID-19 .
Moreover , the Post article conveyed the impression that the Smithfield plant might become a ghost facility , closed forever due to South Dakota ’ s failure to elect a Democratic governor .
In fact , the plant will reopen in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brief time it has been closed , Smithfield has been working intensively with the Centers for Disease Control , OSHA , and others , and is implementing measures as described by the company .

Another Dishonest Smear By the Washington Post.
But wait! It is obvious even to a casual reader that the Post’s attack makes no sense. The article acknowledges that the Smithfield plant had already “been deemed essential by the federal government,” so no order Noem might have issued would have applied to it in any case. The Smithfield experience had nothing to do with Noem’s policy.
They’re not even trying anymore, really. Plus:
The point of the Post story is to convey the impression that Governor Noem’s reliance on voluntary measures, education, persuasion, and close cooperation with federal agencies, other governors, and the private sector is a failure. Strikingly absent from the Post’s hit job, however, is the bottom line: how many South Dakotans have actually succumbed to COVID-19? The answer: 6, and none have been reported within the last week. South Dakota has one of the best coronavirus records of any state, but the Post didn’t tell its readers that. It would have ruined the narrative.
Next: the Smithfield story is actually an interesting one, but the Post tells us essentially nothing about it. First of all, the Sioux Falls facility is massive. It has 3,700 employees, of whom fewer than 10% have tested positive for COVID-19. The Sioux Falls facility is one of the main pork producers in the U.S., turning out around 18 million servings of bacon, pork chops, etc., per day. You may wonder, why were so many diagnostic tests performed on employees at that plant? The answer is that Smithfield implemented an aggressive program, in partnership with two major hospital systems, whereby anyone who entered or left the facility was questioned and had his or her temperature taken. Anyone who reported having a cough, etc., or who showed an elevated temperature was tested for COVID-19.
Moreover, the Post article conveyed the impression that the Smithfield plant might become a ghost facility, closed forever due to South Dakota’s failure to elect a Democratic governor. In fact, the plant will reopen in a matter of days. During the brief time it has been closed, Smithfield has been working intensively with the Centers for Disease Control, OSHA, and others, and is implementing measures as described by the company.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Texas county penalizing residents with $1,000 fine if caught without face mask

Willacy County Judge Aurelio Guerra issued an order on Tuesday that will penalize any resident if they are caught without @ @ @ @ @ in a public building .
According to the order , all persons over the age @ @ @ @ @ wear some form of covering over their nose and mouth at all times when entering @ @ @ @ @ grocery store , pharmacy or convenience store .
A person can be fined up to @ @ @ @ @ added to the order that no more than two adults per vehicle will be allowed @ @ @ @ @ fine up to $ 1,000 will also be issued if violated .

Willacy County Judge Aurelio Guerra issued an order on Tuesday that will penalize any resident if they are caught without something covering their face while in a public building.
According to the order, all persons over the age of 5 are required to wear some form of covering over their nose and mouth at all times when entering a building such as a grocery store, pharmacy or convenience store. A person can be fined up to $1,000.
Judge Guerra added to the order that no more than two adults per vehicle will be allowed in the county. A fine up to $1,000 will also be issued if violated.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--OK, LET SEE WHO IS CALLING FOR “REOPEN AMERICAN ECONOMY “

Among the companies whose CEOs will advise the White House on reopening the economy , according to Pres .
Trump @

FOLLOW THE MONEY…..
www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-leaks-draft-plan-reopen-american-economy
Among the companies whose CEOs will advise the White House on reopening the economy, according to Pres. Trump:
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– Apple
– Bank of America
– Google
– Goldman Sachs
– Honeywell
– JP Morgan Chase
– Lockheed Martin
– McDonald’s
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Are smartphones the worst tools ever (spying)?

Smartphones are arguably helpful .
They can be used for entertainment , communications and swift bank transfers and photos etc ( 3 woops for anybody who manages to quickly video a UFO or a terror attack etc ) .
However , could these “ objects of entertainment ” actually be a Trojan Horse ?
Imagine a worst case scenario where you are being spied upon through your smartphone…in real time .
Imagine that you are logging into your banking app on your smartphone and somebody ( it doesn ’ t even have to be “ the government ” , could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can see ( what ) you ( are doing ) in real time .
Imagine your internet activity can be monitored .
Imagine that smartphones are the ultimate breach to personal privacy since the dawn of time , since the existence of modern man 200,000 years ago .
And that ’ s just for the average Joe !
Imagine being a billionaire or a government official and you are being spied upon .
The problems increase tenfold .
Communications regarding share dealings or potential share dealings or major economic decisions ; orders to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major events or secret events – the possibilities are endless .
Fears of the average Joe that “ the government ” is spying on them could be multiplied a hundredfold as it is discovered that “ the government ” may not even be the ( only ) “ entity ” surveilling you !
From criminals to weirdoes to even foreign governments or criminals or otherwise ( or even your own “ family ” members in secrer – which is both illegal and immoral ) could make this even worse .
How serious do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DR Smartphones could be major tools of surveillance used to spy on the common man or even the obscenely wealthy or politicians or major government officials and military personnel and high-ranking personnel etc Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by AnakinWayneII
Smartphones are arguably helpful. They can be used for entertainment, communications and swift bank transfers and photos etc (3 woops for anybody who manages to quickly video a UFO or a terror attack etc).
However, could these “objects of entertainment” actually be a Trojan Horse?
Imagine a worst case scenario where you are being spied upon through your smartphone…in real time. Imagine that you are logging into your banking app on your smartphone and somebody (it doesn’t even have to be “the government”, could be criminals or weirdos or otherwise) can see (what) you (are doing) in real time. Imagine your internet activity can be monitored. Imagine that smartphones are the ultimate breach to personal privacy since the dawn of time, since the existence of modern man 200,000 years ago.
And that’s just for the average Joe! Imagine being a billionaire or a government official and you are being spied upon. The problems increase tenfold. Communications regarding share dealings or potential share dealings or major economic decisions; orders to carry out military strikes or communications regarding major events or secret events – the possibilities are endless.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Fears of the average Joe that “the government” is spying on them could be multiplied a hundredfold as it is discovered that “the government” may not even be the (only) “entity” surveilling you! From criminals to weirdoes to even foreign governments or criminals or otherwise (or even your own “family” members in secrer – which is both illegal and immoral) could make this even worse.
How serious do you think this is?
Thoughts?
TL:DR Smartphones could be major tools of surveillance used to spy on the common man or even the obscenely wealthy or politicians or major government officials and military personnel and high-ranking personnel etc
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--In a message to China, North Korea and maybe Russia, U.S. Air Force puts B-52 bombers, tankers and d

In a message to China , North Korea and maybe Russia , U.S. Air Force puts B-52 bombers , tankers @ @ @ @ @ Guam pic.twitter.com/R2zsOZy2ur

In a message to China, North Korea and maybe Russia, U.S. Air Force puts B-52 bombers, tankers and drones on runway in Guam pic.twitter.com/R2zsOZy2ur
— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) April 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--AN IDEA SO CRAZY, IT JUST MIGHT WORK:

AN IDEA SO CRAZY, IT JUST MIGHT WORK:

Here ’ s One Thing Officials Can Do to Make Lockdown Life Better : Stop Being Hypocritical Tyrants .
There are the police officers who thought it was a good idea to pester a little girl shooting baskets alone in a park .
She was socially distanced .
She was fine .
If a game of street 3-on-3 suddenly broke out , well , that ’ s a different story .
But she was alone .
So leave her alone .
The police later apologized , but they should have just used some common sense and avoided the whole situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Colorado who arrested a dad playing ball with his daughter in a park .
Leave people alone or this could start getting ugly .
Most Americans support the police , but we don ’ t support a police state .
There are the officials who decided Easter weekend was a good opportunity to start messing with churches struggling like everyone else to deal with the new reality .
California ’ s Mendocino County is banning church singing on a livestream .
How does this help stop the spread of coronavirus ?
Kentucky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down Christians ’ license plates for going to church in their cars .
How does this help halt the virus from spreading ?
It doesn ’ t .
It just makes people who are already on edge that much edgier .
Elections matter .
Remember this in a few years and do better .
Michigan should also do better .
It elected the cluelessly tyrannical Gretchen Whitmer as its governor .
A few weeks ago Whitmer was a rising Democrat star .
Now , she ’ s a petty thug who ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t rule her out of still being a rising Democrat star ) .
She ’ s awful .
She has gone on a power trip worthy of Blofeld , the nutty Bond villain who built a fortress in a volcano and fed his underlings to piranhas .
.
.
.
It ’ s very hard on free people who are used to being able to do what they want when they want , who had a job one day and thanks to a government decree they don ’ t have a job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t ask for any of this , nor did they cause it .
When we see Chicago ’ s mayor ban haircuts , and then get one herself because she ’ s privileged and you ’ re not and she imposes a curfew on others for no evident reason , and when we see a Texas county judge apparently violate his own stay at home order , it sends the entirely wrong signal in a republic where the people are supposed to be the government .
It also hints at something a whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better not let fester .
And the best thing they can do to prevent that is to stop acting like petty little tyrants .

Here’s One Thing Officials Can Do to Make Lockdown Life Better: Stop Being Hypocritical Tyrants.
There are the police officers who thought it was a good idea to pester a little girl shooting baskets alone in a park. She was socially distanced. She was fine. If a game of street 3-on-3 suddenly broke out, well, that’s a different story. But she was alone. So leave her alone. The police later apologized, but they should have just used some common sense and avoided the whole situation. And there are the police officers in Colorado who arrested a dad playing ball with his daughter in a park. Leave people alone or this could start getting ugly. Most Americans support the police, but we don’t support a police state.
There are the officials who decided Easter weekend was a good opportunity to start messing with churches struggling like everyone else to deal with the new reality. California’s Mendocino County is banning church singing on a livestream. How does this help stop the spread of coronavirus? Kentucky’s Democrat governor took to taking down Christians’ license plates for going to church in their cars. How does this help halt the virus from spreading? It doesn’t. It just makes people who are already on edge that much edgier. Elections matter. Remember this in a few years and do better.
Michigan should also do better. It elected the cluelessly tyrannical Gretchen Whitmer as its governor. A few weeks ago Whitmer was a rising Democrat star. Now, she’s a petty thug who’s in over her head (which doesn’t rule her out of still being a rising Democrat star). She’s awful. She has gone on a power trip worthy of Blofeld, the nutty Bond villain who built a fortress in a volcano and fed his underlings to piranhas. . . .
It’s very hard on free people who are used to being able to do what they want when they want, who had a job one day and thanks to a government decree they don’t have a job the next day. They didn’t ask for any of this, nor did they cause it. When we see Chicago’s mayor ban haircuts, and then get one herself because she’s privileged and you’re not and she imposes a curfew on others for no evident reason, and when we see a Texas county judge apparently violate his own stay at home order, it sends the entirely wrong signal in a republic where the people are supposed to be the government.
It also hints at something a whole lot darker that our dear leaders had better not let fester. And the best thing they can do to prevent that is to stop acting like petty little tyrants.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--President Trump Blasting The WHO For Opposing Travel Restrictions From China “The WHO’s attack on tr

President Trump Blasting The WHO For Opposing Travel Restrictions From China “The WHO’s attack on travel restrictions put political correctness above life-saving measures. Travel Bans work for the same reason quarantines work.”

Telling it like it is , THAT ’ S MY PRESIDENT !

“Border control is fundamental to virus control.”
Telling it like it is, THAT’S MY PRESIDENT!
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h/t ProudConservativeNY


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--James Woods: The very words “ballot harvesting” tell you all you need to know. They reek of corrupti

James Woods: The very words “ballot harvesting” tell you all you need to know. They reek of corruption. Democrats are pushing this scam with unrestrained glee.

Random , unaccountable partisans showing up with truckloads of “ votes ” on Election Day .
Whether they got them @ @ @ @ @ door ( they won ’ t take your vote if you are a republican , @ @ @ @ @ trash it to prevent you from voting in person ) , or are just filling @ @ @ @ @ a back room , this is election cheating and sleaze .
Dems know that nobody @ @ @ @ @ mad dash to count votes .
Restore voter integrity .
I person , in person @ @ @ @ @ only for special circumstances .

The very words “ballot harvesting” tell you all you need to know. They reek of corruption. Democrats are pushing this scam with unrestrained glee. t.co/5Nhe81hnNs — James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) April 15, 2020
Random, unaccountable partisans showing up with truckloads of “votes” on Election Day.
Whether they got them by browbeating people door to door (they won’t take your vote if you are a republican, or they take it and trash it to prevent you from voting in person), or are just filling out names on forms in a back room, this is election cheating and sleaze. Dems know that nobody is checking signatures in the mad dash to count votes.
Restore voter integrity. I person, in person, 1 vote. Absentee only for special circumstances.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Kentucky lawmakers override Gov. Beshear’s veto of voter ID measure
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Coronavirus: COVID-19 l What You Should Know About Causes, Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment, Pathology

Everything You Should Know About the 2019 Coronavirus and COVID-19 3D Medical Animation In early 2020 , a new virus began generating headlines all over the world because of the unprecedented speed of its transmission .
From its origins in a food market in Wuhan , China , in December 2019 to countries as far-flung as the United States and the Philippines , the virus ( officially named SARS-CoV-2 ) has affected hundreds of thousands , with a rising death toll now over 17,000 .
The disease caused by an infection with SARS-CoV-2 is called COVID-19 , which stands for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Youtube channel : www.youtube.com/channel/UCxYV… In spite of the global panic in the news about this virus , you ’ re unlikely to contract SARS-CoV-2 unless you ’ ve been in contact with someone who has a SARS-CoV-2 infection .
Let ’ s bust some myths .
Read on to learn how this 2019 coronavirus is spread , how it ’ s similar and different from other coronaviruses , and how to prevent spreading it to others if you suspect you ’ ve contracted this virus .
before we begin this video don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for more daily tips like this and turn on notifications so you never miss our new videos What are the symptoms ?
Doctors are learning new things about this virus every day .
So far , we know that COVID-19 may not initially cause any symptoms for some people .
You may carry the virus for 2 days or up to 2 weeksTrusted Source before you notice symptoms .
Some common symptoms that have been specifically linked to COVID-19 include : having a cough that gets more severe over time These symptoms may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Call emergency medical services if you or someone you care for have any of the following symptoms : persistent pain or pressure in the chest What to do if you have symptoms of COVID-19 If you have COVID-19 or suspect you have the virus that causes COVID-19 , you should seek medical care .
You have several options for obtaining medical care , including being seen by your primary healthcare provider .
The CDC recommends calling your provider first so that they can take the necessary steps to prepare for your visit and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus that causes COVID-19 .
Some healthcare providers also offer virtual visits through your smartphone or laptop , so you may not need to leave your home for an initial assessment .
If you don ’ t have a primary healthcare provider , you can use this tool to find a local primary care office in your area .

Everything You Should Know About the 2019 Coronavirus and COVID-19 3D Medical Animation
In early 2020, a new virus began generating headlines all over the world because of the unprecedented speed of its transmission.
From its origins in a food market in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 to countries as far-flung as the United States and the Philippines, the virus (officially named SARS-CoV-2) has affected hundreds of thousands, with a rising death toll now over 17,000.
The disease caused by an infection with SARS-CoV-2 is called COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019.
Subscribe to our Youtube channel :www.youtube.com/channel/UCxYV…
In spite of the global panic in the news about this virus, you’re unlikely to contract SARS-CoV-2 unless you’ve been in contact with someone who has a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Let’s bust some myths. Read on to learn how this 2019 coronavirus is spread, how it’s similar and different from other coronaviruses, and how to prevent spreading it to others if you suspect you’ve contracted this virus.
before we begin this video don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for more daily tips like this and turn on notifications so you never miss our new videos
What are the symptoms?
Doctors are learning new things about this virus every day. So far, we know that COVID-19 may not initially cause any symptoms for some people.
You may carry the virus for 2 days or up to 2 weeksTrusted Source before you notice symptoms.
Some common symptoms that have been specifically linked to COVID-19 include:
shortness of breath
having a cough that gets more severe over time
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
a low-grade fever that gradually increases in temperature
These symptoms may become more severe in some people. Call emergency medical services if you or someone you care for have any of the following symptoms:
trouble breathing
blue lips or face
persistent pain or pressure in the chest
confusion
excessive drowsiness
What to do if you have symptoms of COVID-19
If you have COVID-19 or suspect you have the virus that causes COVID-19, you should seek medical care.
You have several options for obtaining medical care, including being seen by your primary healthcare provider. The CDC recommends calling your provider first so that they can take the necessary steps to prepare for your visit and protect others from possible exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19.
Some healthcare providers also offer virtual visits through your smartphone or laptop, so you may not need to leave your home for an initial assessment.
If you don’t have a primary healthcare provider, you can use this tool to find a local primary care office in your area.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-15--Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 ( SARS-CoV-2 ) transmission .
We used estimates of seasonality , immunity , and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission .
We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial , most severe pandemic wave .
Absent other interventions , a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded .
To avoid this , prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic , would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity .
Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 .
Even in the event of apparent elimination , SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024 .
This study , like most , has a lot of info so posting snippets out of context isnt always effective however these 4 notes within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For those of us without substantial education in these fields it ’ s hard to “ read ” through these studies but often the message is pretty clear if the authors take this into account .
The following are 4 paragraphs from full study available in link above .
Granted the full study is not solely about the info withi these sections I found the points made fairly relevant to us now and definitely something to be considering given the current unknowns SARS-CoV-2 can proliferate at any time of year If immunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely enter into regular circulation Much like pandemic influenza , many scenarios lead to SARS-CoV-2 entering into long-term circulation alongside the other human betacoronaviruses ( e.g.
, Fig .
3 , A and B ) , possibly in annual , biennial , or sporadic patterns over the next five years ( tables S2 to S4 ) .
Short-term immunity ( on the order of 40 weeks , similar to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 ) favors the establishment of annual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks , while longer-term immunity ( two years ) favors biennial outbreaks .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus could disappear for five or more years after causing a major outbreak Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and lower overall incidence of infection .
If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 , the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear ( Fig .
3D ) .
The virtual elimination of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 would be possible if SARS-CoV-2 induced 70 % cross immunity against them , which is the same estimated level of cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 induces against HCoV-HKU1 .
Low levels of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS-CoV-2 could make SARS-CoV-2 appear to die out , only to resurge after a few years

by Kujo17
Source Harvard Univ via ScienceMag
Abstract
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission.
We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded.
To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity.
Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.
Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
<<<><<<><<<><<<><<<><<<><<<><<<>
This study, like most, has a lot of info so posting snippets out of context isnt always effective however these 4 notes within this study stuck out to me. For those of us without substantial education in these fields it’s hard to “read” through these studies but often the message is pretty clear if the authors take this into account. The following are 4 paragraphs from full study available in link above. Granted the full study is not solely about the info withi these sections I found the points made fairly relevant to us now and definitely something to be considering given the current unknowns
<<<><<<><<>>><<<<<<<><<<><<<><<<>>
SARS-CoV-2 can proliferate at any time of year
In all modeled scenarios, SARS-CoV-2 was capable of producing a substantial outbreak regardless of establishment time. Winter/spring establishments favored outbreaks with lower peaks, while autumn/winter establishments led to more acute outbreaks (tables S2 to S4 and fig. S7). The five-year cumulative incidence proxies were comparable for all establishment times (tables S2 to S4).
If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not permanent, it will likely enter into regular circulation
Much like pandemic influenza, many scenarios lead to SARS-CoV-2 entering into long-term circulation alongside the other human betacoronaviruses (e.g., Fig. 3, A and B), possibly in annual, biennial, or sporadic patterns over the next five years (tables S2 to S4). Short-term immunity (on the order of 40 weeks, similar to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1) favors the establishment of annual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, while longer-term immunity (two years) favors biennial outbreaks.
If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is permanent, the virus could disappear for five or more years after causing a major outbreak
Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and lower overall incidence of infection. If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear (Fig. 3D). The virtual elimination of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 would be possible if SARS-CoV-2 induced 70% cross immunity against them, which is the same estimated level of cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 induces against HCoV-HKU1.
Low levels of cross immunity from the other betacoronaviruses against SARS-CoV-2 could make SARS-CoV-2 appear to die out, only to resurge after a few years
Even if SARS-CoV-2 immunity only lasts for two years, mild (30%) cross-immunity from HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 could effectively eliminate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 for up to three years before a resurgence in 2024, as long as SARS-CoV-2 does not fully die out (Fig. 3E).