investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--Gold price hits record high on new fears for the economy

Gold prices have soared to a record high , with investors rushing to find safe places to park their money as concerns grow about a resurgence in the coronavirus and the impact that could have on the global economy .
Gold hit $ 1,944 per ounce earlier on Monday , beating its previous record of $ 1,921 set in 2011 .
It has now gained about 27 % so far this year .
Silver also got a boost , climbing more than 6 % to reach $ 24.21 an ounce , eclipsing Thursday ’ s seven-year high .
“ Gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand , ” Stephen Innes , chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp , said in a research note .
The main driver behind gold ’ s rally has been falling returns on US government bonds , which reflect the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates lower for a prolonged period of time to support the economic recovery , according to Hussein Sayed , chief market strategist at FXTM .
That has also served to weaken the US dollar , which is trading at a 22-month low of 0.85 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japanese yen .
“ That ’ s partly driven by a sense that the US is having a harder time controlling the virus than others , which will see the US economy under-perform , ” said Kit Juckes , chief strategist at Societe Generale .

Gold prices have soared to a record high, with investors rushing to find safe places to park their money as concerns grow about a resurgence in the coronavirus and the impact that could have on the global economy.
Gold hit $1,944 per ounce earlier on Monday, beating its previous record of $1,921 set in 2011. It has now gained about 27% so far this year. Silver also got a boost, climbing more than 6% to reach $24.21 an ounce, eclipsing Thursday’s seven-year high.
“Gold is the clear beneficiary of safe haven demand,” Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp, said in a research note.
The main driver behind gold’s rally has been falling returns on US government bonds, which reflect the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates lower for a prolonged period of time to support the economic recovery, according to Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM. That has also served to weaken the US dollar, which is trading at a 22-month low of 0.85 euros and a 4-month low against the Japanese yen.
“That’s partly driven by a sense that the US is having a harder time controlling the virus than others, which will see the US economy under-perform,” said Kit Juckes, chief strategist at Societe Generale.
edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/investing/gold-price-record-high/index.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--$1M in gold gains

$1M in gold gains

Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information @ @ @ @ @ you own due diligence .

by Power80770M
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--“We are desperate to find yield” – let’s pile into the highest forward multiples in years is the new

“We are desperate to find yield” – let’s pile into the highest forward multiples in years is the new prudent investing.

"We are desperate to find yield" – let's pile into the highest forward multiples in years is the new prudent investing. t.co/dAk0JZDhAi pic.twitter.com/GiP9KOz1Qn — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) July 27, 2020
As yields on government #bonds fall, debt trading at negative rates has climbed back to $15 trillion per @markets calculations
This reinforces the "TINA" theme pushing #investors to risk assets. It also raises more questions about the longer-term integrity of the financial system pic.twitter.com/C6HsxQrkZm — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) July 27, 2020
It's pretty remarkable actually how little of the various Fed programs' capacities has been tapped. Kind of a perception vs reality thing, really via @NickTimiraos t.co/eywAvOhjhi pic.twitter.com/Z9BBo4cPwZ — Lawrence Hamtil (@lhamtil) July 27, 2020
Updated version of The Global Financial Resource Curse (t.co/MhYyP8q6pd). Since the late 1990s, a global saving glut has pushed capital from developing countries to the US. But investment and productivity growth in the US have been weak, in spite of low global rates. Why? pic.twitter.com/hbZSOBDLIp — Luca Fornaro (@LucaFornaro3) July 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--THIS IS WHY GOLD COULD GO UP A LOT MORE.

Watch Out : Inflation Could Be Lurking on the Other Side of the Pandemic Without more discipline at the Fed @ @ @ @ @ out of control .
Dollar Move Signals New Era of Weakness for Currency , as @ @ @ @ @ become the world ’ s punching bag , and it ’ s likely to stay @ @ @ @ @ The Dollar Index Still Has Further to Fall : Westpac Bank Sean Callow of Westpac @ @ @ @ @ dollar could test the low-90 level versus a basket of currencies , but will not @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 2018 lows of sub-90 .
Why Nothing Can Stop Gold : Deutsche Bank @ @ @ @ @ Sheet Will Hit $ 20 Trillion In “ Next Few Years ” The Fed may @ @ @ @ @ $ 12 trillion to its balance sheet over the next few years to reach the @ @ @ @ @ Funds rate of -5 % to fill the policy gap .

🟨THIS IS WHY GOLD COULD GO UP A LOT MORE. OPTION 2 🟨 pic.twitter.com/AZwEOWEodv — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 27, 2020
Dollar value after endless printing pic.twitter.com/Knov4Ii2DL — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 27, 2020
Asset managers betting against Dollar pic.twitter.com/yn5JeK4XBF — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 27, 2020
The world we live in: Depressed nominal yields as inflation expectation moves higher. Falling real yields are a big reason for the surge in gold prices. Then add: -Unlimited QE
-Unlimited deficits
-Debt on top more debt Hard to not be long gold, silver & miners these days. pic.twitter.com/HNh2SrsIPw — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 27, 2020
Say the Fed were to be the only game in town with regard to macro policy, where might the balance sheet end up? @DeutscheBank engages in a little bit of speculative extrapolation. pic.twitter.com/SjbSIcpX7i — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) July 27, 2020
The FOMC meeting is this week. Most of the market is concentrating on Yield Curve Control (YCC), but the fed funds futures market is saying lower rates are coming pic.twitter.com/6zMdNKgWS4 — Scott Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) July 27, 2020
Without more discipline at the Fed, inflation could easily get out of control.
The dollar has become the world’s punching bag, and it’s likely to stay that way for awhile.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Sean Callow of Westpac Bank thinks that the U.S. dollar could test the low-90 level versus a basket of currencies, but will not come close to the index’s 2018 lows of sub-90.
The Fed may need to add up to $12 trillion to its balance sheet over the next few years to reach the equivalent to a shadow Fed Funds rate of -5% to fill the policy gap.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--President Trump Is Still Here for Us – Even In Our Darkest Hour – Keep The Faith –

He is an amazing man , and most of all he is a great American hero .
Whatever befalls this Country , he is as much a victim as we are .
This was coming , but we did not comprehend the vastness of the plan .
We should have from the very beginning of the President ’ s first day in office .
We should have when Hillary Clinton got away with the rogue emails , endangering the lives of agents in the field .
But when James Comey found her innocent of wrongdoing , that was the straw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This plan has been carried out since Trump was elected , and without a doubt we are at war .
We are at war !
China is responsible for releasing the Wuhan virus , but they are not alone .
We have our own players in the mix – Dr. Fauci – a Bill Gates loyalist .
He is a friend of George Soros , so there you go , we were down before we were even standing .
You and I are witnessing a war of silence – no one is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is definitely a war – the greatest one we have ever fought .
We can not stop…we have to keep going until we are dead and gone .
We are fighting for our children now .
They are considering closing our schools permanently , but President Trump is looking out for us .
How much good he is going to be able to do , I don ’ t know .
He wants parents to be compensated financially if their child ’ s school is closed .
If they close our schools permanently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Our children will be left wandering aimlessly in a vast wasteland .
What can we do ?
Each and everyone of us must consider what we can do to direct our youth in a safe direction .
We must meet in groups to study and create a plan .
We must come together regardless of the coronavirus .
They want to separate us , and now it is apparent why .
I feel like we are living in a third world country , if not that…I am watching a movie…an old war movie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So be it .
I will never give up until I am dead .
I will hold on to the fact Jeffrey Epstein is dead , and others will be arrested soon .
We are about to see an explosive week as the Maxwell documents are set to be released .
Watch the sparks fly .
But Alan Dershowitz tells us not to judge Maxwell before she is convicted .
He was Jeffrey Epstein ’ s attorney , so there you go .
Are we about to go to war with China ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the timing is right as far as I am concerned .
Tensions between China and the United States have reached the most acute levels since the countries normalized diplomatic relations more than four decades ago , with the American government ’ s ordering that China close its Houston consulate being just the latest example .
In defense , trade , technology , human rights and other categories , actions and reprisals by one side or the other have escalated sharply under President Trump ’ s administration , despite his repeated expressions of admiration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The administration is even weighing a blanket ban on travel to the United States by the 92 million members of China ’ s ruling Communist Party and the possible expulsion of any members currently in the country , an action that would likely invite retaliation against American travel and residency in China .
“ I think we ’ re in a dangerous and precipitous spiral downward , not without cause , but without the proper diplomatic skills to arrest it , ” said Orville Schell , director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the confrontation , he said , “ has jumped the wall from specific and solvable challenges to a clash of systems and values.
” Craig Allen , president of the U.S.-China Business Council , said he was alarmed by the increasing invective from two superpowers that together represent 40 percent of global economic output .
“ If we are yelling at each other and slamming doors , then the world is a very unstable place , and businesses are not able to plan , ” he said .
The COVID-19 pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has moved the United States and China a big step closer to a new cold war .
It has strengthened hard-liners in both countries , and political pressures stemming from the pandemic are making it harder for leaders to back away from escalation .
For two months , as the virus killed thousands and wreaked economic havoc around the world , officials of the two superpowers have heaped blame on each other to divert attention from the pain of the crisis and from their own missteps .
President Trump has frequently referred @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese virus ” or the “ Wuhan virus , ” for the city that was the original epicenter of the outbreak .
China has seen relations with several countries reach crisis levels but will look to “ consolidate ” its ties with Russia in order to give it essential support against America ’ s hard-line stance .
Tensions with the US currently sit on a knife-edge while several other countries such as Australia and the UK have criticised Beijing for its imposition of the new Security law in Hong Kong .
China has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also contesting the South China Sea with the US due to Beijing ’ s territorial claims in the region .
With Beijing fighting on so many fronts , senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund , Andrew Small now expects Beijing to look to closer ties with Russia once again .
He told Express.co.uk : “ It ’ s in a weaker position if it ’ s forced to contend with all this on its own .
“ I expect them to place greater importance on Russia .
“ Beijing will probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ But it will be interesting to see how Russia views its ties with Beijing.
” In a sign of the restoration of old Cold War tendencies , foreign ministers from Russia and China held a phone conversation where they openly mocked Washington this week .
China ’ s foreign minister , Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart , Sergei Lavrov accused the US of reviving a Cold War mentality .
Wang told his counterpart : “ The US has bluntly pursued its ‘ America First ’ policy , pushing egoism , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that ’ s not what a great power should be about .
“ The US has resorted to extreme measures and even created hot spots and confrontations in international relationships , has lost its mind , morals and credibility .
“ The US has retaken the notorious McCarthyism and outdated Cold War mentality and intentionally stirred up ideological opposition.
” In response , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called on the free nations to take a united stand against China .
He said this week : “ Today China is increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in its hostility to freedom everywhere else .
I give Putin credit for his intelligence , and I think he is the shrewdest thinker on the world stage .
If you agree with me or not , that is my stand .
I do not believe Putin will get involved with any encounter between China and the United States at this point .
As far as China calling out the United States for igniting a Cold War , all President Trump did was to attempt to break the cycle of China taking the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in an unhealthy relationship of dominance .
Due to the fact , President Trump was trying to free the US from dependency on China , this is what China is griping about .
We had every right to declare ourselves adequate to take care of our own needs without the input of China .
If we do continue the path we are on with China , so be it .
In my opinion , there is no other choice .
It is high time we stood up to them head to head .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ US is not taking it anymore .
When one stops to realize that most of our important medicines are being made in China , in my opinion , that is enough said .
My support is behind President Trump…bottom line .
Dr. Fauci should move to China , as he protected China instead of his own Country when the ‘ first strike coronavirus ’ hit us .
Then he marches into the White House to advise President Trump to close the Country down .
Dr. Fauci destroyed the United States in a nutshell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pawn of China .
There are too many turncoats walking around wearing the mask of power .
Instead of wearing masks , we need to start removing them .

By – Pam Williams
He is an amazing man, and most of all he is a great American hero. Whatever befalls this Country, he is as much a victim as we are. This was coming, but we did not comprehend the vastness of the plan. We should have from the very beginning of the President’s first day in office. We should have when Hillary Clinton got away with the rogue emails, endangering the lives of agents in the field. But when James Comey found her innocent of wrongdoing, that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. This plan has been carried out since Trump was elected, and without a doubt we are at war. We are at war!
China is responsible for releasing the Wuhan virus, but they are not alone. We have our own players in the mix – Dr. Fauci – a Bill Gates loyalist. He is a friend of George Soros, so there you go, we were down before we were even standing. You and I are witnessing a war of silence – no one is calling it a war, but it is definitely a war – the greatest one we have ever fought. We cannot stop…we have to keep going until we are dead and gone.
We are fighting for our children now. They are considering closing our schools permanently, but President Trump is looking out for us. How much good he is going to be able to do, I don’t know. He wants parents to be compensated financially if their child’s school is closed.
If they close our schools permanently, we certainly have no future. Our children will be left wandering aimlessly in a vast wasteland. What can we do? Each and everyone of us must consider what we can do to direct our youth in a safe direction.
We must meet in groups to study and create a plan. We must come together regardless of the coronavirus. They want to separate us, and now it is apparent why. I feel like we are living in a third world country, if not that…I am watching a movie…an old war movie where people are meeting in secret.
So be it. I will never give up until I am dead.
I will hold on to the fact Jeffrey Epstein is dead, and others will be arrested soon. We are about to see an explosive week as the Maxwell documents are set to be released. Watch the sparks fly. But Alan Dershowitz tells us not to judge Maxwell before she is convicted. He was Jeffrey Epstein’s attorney, so there you go.
Are we about to go to war with China? I say, bring it on – the timing is right as far as I am concerned.
www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/world/asia/us-china-cold-war.html?auth=link-dismiss-google1tap
QUOTE
Tensions between China and the United States have reached the most acute levels since the countries normalized diplomatic relations more than four decades ago, with the American government’s ordering that China close its Houston consulate being just the latest example.
In defense, trade, technology, human rights and other categories, actions and reprisals by one side or the other have escalated sharply under President Trump’s administration, despite his repeated expressions of admiration for President Xi Jinping of China.
The administration is even weighing a blanket ban on travel to the United States by the 92 million members of China’s ruling Communist Party and the possible expulsion of any members currently in the country, an action that would likely invite retaliation against American travel and residency in China.
“I think we’re in a dangerous and precipitous spiral downward, not without cause, but without the proper diplomatic skills to arrest it,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society. The severity of the confrontation, he said, “has jumped the wall from specific and solvable challenges to a clash of systems and values.”
Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said he was alarmed by the increasing invective from two superpowers that together represent 40 percent of global economic output. “If we are yelling at each other and slamming doors, then the world is a very unstable place, and businesses are not able to plan,” he said.
END OF QUOTE
www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-07/coronavirus-pandemic-us-china-new-cold-war
QUOTE
The COVID-19 pandemic, in an unexpected but potentially fateful twist, has moved the United States and China a big step closer to a new cold war.
It has strengthened hard-liners in both countries, and political pressures stemming from the pandemic are making it harder for leaders to back away from escalation.
For two months, as the virus killed thousands and wreaked economic havoc around the world, officials of the two superpowers have heaped blame on each other to divert attention from the pain of the crisis and from their own missteps.
President Trump has frequently referred to the novel coronavirus as the “Chinese virus” or the “Wuhan virus,” for the city that was the original epicenter of the outbreak.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
END OF QUOTE
www.express.co.uk/news/world/1313910/world-war-3-china-news-latest-US-xi-jinping-cold-war
QUOTE
China has seen relations with several countries reach crisis levels but will look to “consolidate” its ties with Russia in order to give it essential support against America’s hard-line stance. Tensions with the US currently sit on a knife-edge while several other countries such as Australia and the UK have criticised Beijing for its imposition of the new Security law in Hong Kong. China has also sparked confrontations with India, while also contesting the South China Sea with the US due to Beijing’s territorial claims in the region.
With Beijing fighting on so many fronts, senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund, Andrew Small now expects Beijing to look to closer ties with Russia once again.
He told Express.co.uk: “It’s in a weaker position if it’s forced to contend with all this on its own.
“I expect them to place greater importance on Russia.
“Beijing will probably attempt to consolidate its ties with Russia.
“But it will be interesting to see how Russia views its ties with Beijing.”
In a sign of the restoration of old Cold War tendencies, foreign ministers from Russia and China held a phone conversation where they openly mocked Washington this week.
China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov accused the US of reviving a Cold War mentality.
Wang told his counterpart: “The US has bluntly pursued its ‘America First’ policy, pushing egoism, unilateralism and bullying to the limit, and that’s not what a great power should be about.
“The US has resorted to extreme measures and even created hot spots and confrontations in international relationships, has lost its mind, morals and credibility.
“The US has retaken the notorious McCarthyism and outdated Cold War mentality and intentionally stirred up ideological opposition.”
In response, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called on the free nations to take a united stand against China.
He said this week: “Today China is increasingly authoritarian at home, and more aggressive in its hostility to freedom everywhere else.
END OF QUOTE
I give Putin credit for his intelligence, and I think he is the shrewdest thinker on the world stage. If you agree with me or not, that is my stand. I do not believe Putin will get involved with any encounter between China and the United States at this point.
As far as China calling out the United States for igniting a Cold War, all President Trump did was to attempt to break the cycle of China taking the lunch money of the United States consistently in an unhealthy relationship of dominance. Due to the fact, President Trump was trying to free the US from dependency on China, this is what China is griping about. We had every right to declare ourselves adequate to take care of our own needs without the input of China.
If we do continue the path we are on with China, so be it. In my opinion, there is no other choice. It is high time we stood up to them head to head. China is the bully, and the US is not taking it anymore.
When one stops to realize that most of our important medicines are being made in China, in my opinion, that is enough said.
My support is behind President Trump…bottom line.
Dr. Fauci should move to China, as he protected China instead of his own Country when the ‘first strike coronavirus’ hit us. Then he marches into the White House to advise President Trump to close the Country down. Dr. Fauci destroyed the United States in a nutshell, and he is no doubt a pawn of China. There are too many turncoats walking around wearing the mask of power. Instead of wearing masks, we need to start removing them.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--Down the street from food bank line is CRE apocalypse – fiscal cliff hitting, permanent job loss, re

Down the street from food bank line is CRE apocalypse – fiscal cliff hitting, permanent job loss, recovery stalled in late June

down the street from food bank line is CRE apocalypse – fiscal cliff hitting , permanent job loss , recovery @ @ @ @ @ behind the scenes : food bank line in Baltimore just getting started – a lot @ @ @ @ @ as fiscal cliff begins pic.twitter.com/30C1OBJDSP

down the street from food bank line is CRE apocalypse – fiscal cliff hitting, permanent job loss, recovery stalled in late June pic.twitter.com/aCMgXlv6iV
behind the scenes: food bank line in Baltimore just getting started – a lot of hungry and broke families as fiscal cliff begins pic.twitter.com/30C1OBJDSP
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) July 26, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--Zero-fee trading helps Citadel Securities cash in on retail boom

Citadel Securities and its majority owner Ken Griffin are among the big winners from a boom in retail investing , @ @ @ @ @ trading that has lured huge numbers of first-time investors to the US stock market .
@ @ @ @ @ 40 of every 100 shares traded by individual investors in the US , making it @ @ @ @ @ maker , according to Piper Sandler .
The company is a big buyer of customer @ @ @ @ @ retail brokerages such as Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade , which have slashed commissions to @ @ @ @ @ fast-growing challengers such as Robinhood .
Citadel Securities pays tens of millions of dollars for @ @ @ @ @ money by automatically taking the other side of the order , then returning to the @ @ @ @ @ .
It pockets the difference between the price to buy and sell , known as @ @ @

www.ft.com/content/4a439398-88ab-442a-9927-e743a3ff609b
Citadel Securities and its majority owner Ken Griffin are among the big winners from a boom in retail investing, cashing in on the zero-fee trading that has lured huge numbers of first-time investors to the US stock market.
Chicago-based Citadel Securities accounts for 40 of every 100 shares traded by individual investors in the US, making it the number one retail market maker, according to Piper Sandler. The company is a big buyer of customer trades from the leading US retail brokerages such as Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade, which have slashed commissions to zero to keep up with fast-growing challengers such as Robinhood.
Citadel Securities pays tens of millions of dollars for this order flow but makes money by automatically taking the other side of the order, then returning to the market to flip the trade. It pockets the difference between the price to buy and sell, known as the spread.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--Is The Labor Market Going To Be Weak For The Long-Term?

We have been reporting on the weak jobless claims readings for 6 weeks now .
This latest report ended the record long 15 week decline in seasonally adjusted initial claims .
With the revision from 1.3 million to 1.307 million , last week ’ s seasonally adjusted decline was only 3,000 .
The streak ending isn ’ t a big deal .
Last week , the trend of unadjusted claims falling ended .
This time it was the reverse as adjusted claims fell .
The key issue is how tough it is to get people their jobs back as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pile up .
The $ 600 in extra weekly federal benefits ends on the 25th .
There is a possibility the government extends that to $ 100 per week ( or more ) for the rest of the year .
It ’ s notable that the decline in non-seasonally adjusted claims plus PUAs basically ended in the 2nd week in June ( fell 1 % ) as the chart above shows .
The scary aspect is that the slowdown in the labor market occurred before the restrictions were increased due to the spike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This could mean when the economy fully reopens , there might not be a flood of people getting their jobs back .
To be clear , COVID-19 is a huge inhibitor to job creation .
If it were to go away completely , jobs would be added quickly .
However , if the situation gets back to the way it was in early June ( contained but still in existence ) before this spike , there may not be a huge decline in claims .
That ’ s the negative case to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the first time since March 28th .
They were up from 1.307 million to 1.416 million .
The 15 week decline that ended was by far the longest streak ever .
This isn ’ t a random one off increase though .
It had been coming for a while as the labor market has been stuck for about 6 weeks .
This increase is important because it is the survey week of the July BLS report .
This weakness further cements our expectation for job losses in July .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aware this negative headline is coming .
Maybe it would be better if nothing is passed until the data is given to government officials .
After they see it , they will probably want to do as much stimulus as possible .
They seem to be beating around the bush currently .
Continued claims in the week of July 11th fell from 17.304 million to 16.197 million .
That ’ s not a bad result as that was the biggest decline since May 16th .
PUA claims were up 19,000 to 2.35 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a non-seasonally adjusted basis .
That ’ s the biggest decline in 6 weeks .
As you can see from the chart above , overall continued claims have been shifting from those getting regular benefits to those getting PUA .
Including pandemic unemployment compensation as well makes it look like the labor market hasn ’ t improved since early May .
If that ’ s the case , it ’ s going to really tough to get the economy back on track .
This chart looks depressionary .
Expectations for personal finances @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the chart on the left shows .
These expectations have been impacted by stimulus and COVID-19 cases .
It ’ s likely that the final July sentiment reading is also weak since states didn ’ t reopen in the 2nd half of the month .
The 7 day moving average of cases looks to have peaked which implies that the restrictions could ease in the coming weeks/months .
More people are wearing masks and being careful in the hotspots .
The chart on the right shows the relationship between the savings rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the duel axis is troubling .
However , it ’ s basic logic that if consumers aren ’ t confident about the future , they will save more money .
Many consumers probably saved more in July because they knew the $ 600 in weekly benefits was about to end .
According to PredictIt , there is a 62 % chance Joe Biden becomes president .
This election is far from over .
Trump ’ s approval rating fell a few points in the past few weeks .
There ’ s no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election .
However , investors should always be weary of risk , so we are discussing the potential for a tax hike .
The Democrats will likely try to pass one if they win .
According to our Twitter poll of 82 investors , 85.4 % said a tax hike isn ’ t priced into the U.S. stock market .
They said that probably because the stock market has rallied sharply in the past couple months .
This represents a key risk for markets because unlike COVID-19 , which had a major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effects in 2021 and beyond , this tax hike will have the same negative effect every year until the law is changed .
As you can see from the chart above , the $ 20 decline in S & P 500 EPS means the stock market currently trades at a very high forward PE ratio of 21.6 .
Investment Managers Are All In It ’ s not just retail investors who are euphoric .
The NAAIM exposure index shows fund managers are almost as bullish as possible .
The index rose to 97.58 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since December 18th , 2019 .
Even the fund managers in the first quartile had 75.75 positive exposure .
They were almost fully invested .
It ’ s highly probable these managers are all in on the big internet names since those are the ones that have done well up until recently .
This reading is a hugely negative signal for stocks .
It ’ s good to fade the optimism and pessimism when it gets extreme .
The labor market is in terrible shape .
According to one stat , it hasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A weak July BLS report is coming .
It should show net job losses .
The stock market faces higher taxes which makes it look expensive .
The NAAIM exposure index shows managers are extremely overweight stocks .
This is a major sell signal .
It doesn ’ t mean stocks will fall right away , but a correction could be coming in the intermediate term ( next few weeks ) .

by UPFINA
We have been reporting on the weak jobless claims readings for 6 weeks now. This latest report ended the record long 15 week decline in seasonally adjusted initial claims. With the revision from 1.3 million to 1.307 million, last week’s seasonally adjusted decline was only 3,000. The streak ending isn’t a big deal. Last week, the trend of unadjusted claims falling ended. This time it was the reverse as adjusted claims fell.
Initial claims for #unemployment +109k to 1.42mn in w-e Jul 18! > 4wk avg: 1.36mn > PUA claims (NSA): 975k (+19k) Total UI claims+PUA still 2.35mn! Backlogs & miscounts valid reasons to be careful but last few wks point to + layoffs & less rehiring. Payrolls could fall in Jul pic.twitter.com/oORiL38I8i — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) July 23, 2020
The key issue is how tough it is to get people their jobs back as the number of permanently unemployed people starts to pile up. The $600 in extra weekly federal benefits ends on the 25th. There is a possibility the government extends that to $100 per week (or more) for the rest of the year. It’s notable that the decline in non-seasonally adjusted claims plus PUAs basically ended in the 2nd week in June (fell 1%) as the chart above shows.
The scary aspect is that the slowdown in the labor market occurred before the restrictions were increased due to the spike in COVID-19 cases staring in late June. This could mean when the economy fully reopens, there might not be a flood of people getting their jobs back. To be clear, COVID-19 is a huge inhibitor to job creation. If it were to go away completely, jobs would be added quickly. However, if the situation gets back to the way it was in early June (contained but still in existence) before this spike, there may not be a huge decline in claims. That’s the negative case to consider.
Specifics Of The Report
Seasonally adjusted initial claims rose for the first time since March 28th. They were up from 1.307 million to 1.416 million. The 15 week decline that ended was by far the longest streak ever. This isn’t a random one off increase though. It had been coming for a while as the labor market has been stuck for about 6 weeks. This increase is important because it is the survey week of the July BLS report. This weakness further cements our expectation for job losses in July. It’s entirely possible that Congress isn’t aware this negative headline is coming. Maybe it would be better if nothing is passed until the data is given to government officials. After they see it, they will probably want to do as much stimulus as possible. They seem to be beating around the bush currently.
Continued claims in the week of July 11th fell from 17.304 million to 16.197 million. That’s not a bad result as that was the biggest decline since May 16th. PUA claims were up 19,000 to 2.35 million. Initial plus PUAs fell 5% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. That’s the biggest decline in 6 weeks. As you can see from the chart above, overall continued claims have been shifting from those getting regular benefits to those getting PUA. Including pandemic unemployment compensation as well makes it look like the labor market hasn’t improved since early May. If that’s the case, it’s going to really tough to get the economy back on track. This chart looks depressionary.
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Personal Finances Change
Expectations for personal finances in the next year have been volatile as the chart on the left shows. These expectations have been impacted by stimulus and COVID-19 cases. It’s likely that the final July sentiment reading is also weak since states didn’t reopen in the 2nd half of the month. The 7 day moving average of cases looks to have peaked which implies that the restrictions could ease in the coming weeks/months. More people are wearing masks and being careful in the hotspots.
Expectations for Personal Finances During Covid-19, feels like we may get not only 1 but 2 bills if the sugar rush wears off quickly. pic.twitter.com/ixRdAr4zBr — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) July 23, 2020
The chart on the right shows the relationship between the savings rate and expectations for personal finances. Obviously, the duel axis is troubling. However, it’s basic logic that if consumers aren’t confident about the future, they will save more money. Many consumers probably saved more in July because they knew the $600 in weekly benefits was about to end.
Tax Hikes Could Be Coming
According to PredictIt, there is a 62% chance Joe Biden becomes president. This election is far from over. Trump’s approval rating fell a few points in the past few weeks. There’s no telling what it will do prior to the election. However, investors should always be weary of risk, so we are discussing the potential for a tax hike. The Democrats will likely try to pass one if they win. According to our Twitter poll of 82 investors, 85.4% said a tax hike isn’t priced into the U.S. stock market. They said that probably because the stock market has rallied sharply in the past couple months.
This represents a key risk for markets because unlike COVID-19, which had a major effect in 2020 and might have modest effects in 2021 and beyond, this tax hike will have the same negative effect every year until the law is changed. As you can see from the chart above, the $20 decline in S&P 500 EPS means the stock market currently trades at a very high forward PE ratio of 21.6.
Investment Managers Are All In
It’s not just retail investors who are euphoric. The NAAIM exposure index shows fund managers are almost as bullish as possible. The index rose to 97.58 from 90.53 which is the highest reading since December 18th, 2019. Even the fund managers in the first quartile had 75.75 positive exposure. They were almost fully invested. It’s highly probable these managers are all in on the big internet names since those are the ones that have done well up until recently. This reading is a hugely negative signal for stocks. It’s good to fade the optimism and pessimism when it gets extreme.
Conclusion
The labor market is in terrible shape. According to one stat, it hasn’t improved since early May. A weak July BLS report is coming. It should show net job losses. The stock market faces higher taxes which makes it look expensive. The NAAIM exposure index shows managers are extremely overweight stocks. This is a major sell signal. It doesn’t mean stocks will fall right away, but a correction could be coming in the intermediate term (next few weeks).


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--Retirement Confidence Declined Despite A Surging Market

Despite the surging stock market from the March lows , trillions in liquidity support from the Fed , retirement confidence declined .
I have written on this subject previously regarding a 2018 Fox Business study .
That study showed more Americans doubted they would be able to save enough for retirement than those confident of reaching their goals .
• 37 % are NOT confident they can save enough to retire • 32 % ARE confident they can save enough .
• 48 % , however , don ’ t think their retirement savings will reach $ 1 million .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed equally depressing statistics .
Again , that was 2018 .
Two years later , and with the market 22.5 % higher , have things improved ?
According to a recent update of the SimplyWise Retirement Confidence Index , the answer is “ no.
” According to the July 2020 SimplyWise Retirement Confidence Index , 62 % of Americans are more concerned about retirement today than how they were feeling about it a year ago .
Such is up from 56 % in our May 2020 Index .
The survey also found that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are nearest to retirement—are more concerned about retirement today .
Here are the key findings of the report : • 62 % of Americans more concerned about retirement today compared to a year ago .
( This is up from 56 % in the May 2020 Index . )
• Half of Americans believe they will outlive their retirement savings .
• 1 in 5 could not last more than 2-weeks off their savings .
• 72 % now plan to work in retirement .
( Up from 67 % in May .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the workforce are making what they were making before COVID-19 .
( 67 % for White Americans , 50 % for Hispanic Americans , 45 % for Black Americans . )
• One-in-five Americans in their 60 ’ s have lost their jobs or were furloughed due to COVID-19 .
• 24 % are now planning to tap their 401 ( k ) , including 41 % of those laid off due to COVID-19 .
• 63 % of Black Americans could not come up with $ 500 cash today ( without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) —compared to 35 % of White Americans .
• 48 % of Black Americans and 43 % of Hispanic Americans could survive less than a month on savings ( versus 33 % of White Americans ) .
• Half of Americans say another stimulus check is very important to their finances .
• 72 % ( 83 % of Democrats vs. 60 % of Republicans ) believe a recession will continue into the next year .
As noted , the disruption caused by the “ economic shutdown ” has permanently impaired the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the age of 65 and still working , have been steadily increasing over the years due to better health and longevity , the need for medical insurance , and underfunded retirement accounts .
However , post-COVID , many have been displaced , as shown by the sharp drop in the employment-to-population of that demographic .
Such is even more problematic for 72 % of those surveyed who are planning on working into retirement .
Importantly , this “ age-group ” are some of the highest income earners .
Those job losses put a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumption .
While 49 % of those surveyed could only live off savings for one-year , the burden on pension and welfare funds will increase markedly .
These are pretty depressing statistics when you think about it .
However , for the bottom-80 % of income earners whose income growth has been stagnant over the last two decades , the roadblocks to saving money shouldn ’ t be surprising .
In a survey from Kiplinger and Personal Capital , Americans said the biggest roadblocks to saving for retirement were : • The high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1999 to 2017 , the cost of family health insurance coverage has more than doubled the amount of take-home pay it consumes.
” • Disappointing investment performance .
“ Just under 30 % of all respondents ( 29.4 % ) said that disappointing investment performance had stopped them from saving as much as they would have liked to for retirement.
” • The amount of consumer debt they carried .
“ 21.3 % of Americans said that debt , not including student loans , kept them from saving for retirement combined with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the following chart recently , which illustrates the gap between income , savings , and the cost of living .
It ’ s hard to reduce debt when it is required just to “ make ends meet.
” Currently , 75.4 million Baby Boomers in America—about 26 % of the U.S. population—have reached or will reach retirement age between 2011 and 2030 .
Many of them are public-sector employees .
In a 2015 study of public-sector organizations , nearly 50 % of the responding organizations stated they could lose 20 % or more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next five years .
Local governments are particularly vulnerable : a full 37 % of local-government employees are at least 50-years of age in 2015 .
That was 5-years and one-economic shutdown ago .
Today , the roughly $ 6-trillion under-funding of pensions has now come home to roost .
As noted previously : The amount owed to retirees is accelerating faster than assets on hand to pay those future obligations .
Liabilities of major U.S. public pensions are up 64 % since 2007 , while assets are up 30 % , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ College ’ s Center for Retirement Research .
If the numbers above are right , pension funds must set aside the unfunded obligations of approximately $ 5- $ 6 trillion today .
Without doing so , the principal and interest won ’ t cover the program ’ s shortfall between tax revenues and payouts over the next 75 years .
With boomers forced to retire sooner than planned due to the economic shutdown , the window of opportunity to fix pensions has closed .
It isn ’ t just “ public pensions ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in economic growth has resulted in a collapse in Federal Tax revenue needed to pay for the massive social welfare schemes in the U.S .
It now requires in excess of 100 % of tax receipts just to meet the mandatory spending of social welfare and interest on the debt .
In other words , we are now going into debt more just to provide social assistance .
How bad is it ?
That report , dire in its warning already , was issued before the “ Pandemic ” and “ economic shutdown.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the basic premise of how Social Security is funded .
There were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient in 2017 .
That ’ s down from 3.3 in 2007 , and that ’ s way down from the 5.1 workers per beneficiary that existed in 1960 .
Furthermore , the two programs function mostly as a giant conveyor belt to transfer wealth from the young and relatively poor to the old and relatively rich .
Such allows the average person ( who now lives to be 78 ) more than a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up the highest percentage of disposable personal incomes in history despite record low unemployment , rising wage growth , and the longest economic expansion in U.S. history .
During the “ Great Depression , ” the economically devastated masses would form “ breadlines.
” Today , those “ breadlines ” form at the mailbox .
Today , without government largesse , many individuals would be living on the street .
The chart above shows all the government “ welfare ” programs and current levels to date .
The black line represents the sum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ onset of the “ pandemic , ” unemployment insurance and “ other benefits ” have surged by $ 3 trillion along with continued rises in all other benefits , like social security , Medicaid , and Veterans ’ benefits .
Importantly , for the average person , these social benefits are critical to their survival .
Government assistance now makes up ~38 % of real disposable personal incomes .
With more than 1/3rd of incomes dependent on Federal assistance , it should not be surprising the economy continues to struggle .
Recycled tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virtually no impact on increasing economic activity .
While the Fed keeps inflating stock markets , the “ trickle-down ” effect has yet to occur .
Even as noted in the SimplyWise survey , “ disappointing investment returns ” have stunted retirees saving plans .
However , after 4-decades of transferring wealth from the middle-class to the rich , it is the top-10 % of income earners , who own 88 % of the stock market , such isn ’ t surprising .
For the rest , two major bear markets , lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of living have eroded any ability to build savings for retirement .
Such is why most retirees will depend on social welfare for 50 % , or more , of their retirement income .
Despite a massive surge in the markets from the “ Pandemic ” lows , trillions in market support from the Fed , and household support from the Government , “ retirement confidence ” continues to erode .
The mirage of consumer wealth has not been a function of a broad-based increase in Americans ’ net worth .
Instead , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country between the Top 20 % who have the wealth and the Bottom 80 % dependent on increasing debt levels to sustain their current standard of living .
With the vast amount of individuals already vastly under-saved and dependent on social welfare , the current economic devastation will reveal the full extent of the “ retirement crisis.
” Of course , this is also why the calls for more socialistic policies continue to rise .

by Lance Roberts
Despite the surging stock market from the March lows, trillions in liquidity support from the Fed, retirement confidence declined.
I have written on this subject previously regarding a 2018 Fox Business study. That study showed more Americans doubted they would be able to save enough for retirement than those confident of reaching their goals.
37% are NOT confident they can save enough to retire
32% ARE confident they can save enough.
48%, however, don’t think their retirement savings will reach $1 million.
Another study in 2018 from Northwestern Mutual showed equally depressing statistics.
“Americans feel under-prepared for the financial realities of retirement, according to new data from Northwestern Mutual. Nearly eight in 10 (78%) Americans are “extremely” or “somewhat” concerned about affording a comfortable retirement. At the same time, two-thirds believe there is some likelihood of outliving retirement savings.”
Again, that was 2018.
Two years later, and with the market 22.5% higher, have things improved?
The Index
According to a recent update of the SimplyWise Retirement Confidence Index, the answer is “no.”
“With the unemployment rate remaining above 10%, the rise in {virus] cases and updated policies threaten to make the coronavirus-related layoffs and furloughs permanent. In a country where most people live paycheck to paycheck, this could be devastating. Most Americans lack the savings to last them for even three months. Of course, that savings gap is all the more dramatic when it comes to saving for retirement. And with the havoc the pandemic has wrought, that savings gap seems likely to worsen.”
According to the July 2020 SimplyWise Retirement Confidence Index, 62% of Americans are more concerned about retirement today than how they were feeling about it a year ago. Such is up from 56% in our May 2020 Index. The survey also found that 70% of people in their 50s—who are nearest to retirement—are more concerned about retirement today.
The Findings
Here are the key findings of the report:
62% of Americans more concerned about retirement today compared to a year ago. (This is up from 56% in the May 2020 Index.)
(This is up from 56% in the May 2020 Index.) Half of Americans believe they will outlive their retirement savings.
1 in 5 could not last more than 2-weeks off their savings.
72% now plan to work in retirement. (Up from 67% in May.)
(Up from 67% in May.) Only 58% of those in the workforce are making what they were making before COVID-19. (67% for White Americans, 50% for Hispanic Americans, 45% for Black Americans.)
(67% for White Americans, 50% for Hispanic Americans, 45% for Black Americans.) One-in-five Americans in their 60’s have lost their jobs or were furloughed due to COVID-19.
24% are now planning to tap their 401(k) , including 41% of those laid off due to COVID-19.
, including 41% of those laid off due to COVID-19. 63% of Black Americans could not come up with $500 cash today (without selling something or taking out a loan)—compared to 35% of White Americans.
(without selling something or taking out a loan)—compared to 35% of White Americans. 48% of Black Americans and 43% of Hispanic Americans could survive less than a month on savings (versus 33% of White Americans).
(versus 33% of White Americans). Half of Americans say another stimulus check is very important to their finances.
72% (83% of Democrats vs. 60% of Republicans) believe a recession will continue into the next year.
A “COVID” Infection
As noted, the disruption caused by the “economic shutdown” has permanently impaired the retirement plan of many. Those over the age of 65 and still working, have been steadily increasing over the years due to better health and longevity, the need for medical insurance, and underfunded retirement accounts. However, post-COVID, many have been displaced, as shown by the sharp drop in the employment-to-population of that demographic.
Such is even more problematic for 72% of those surveyed who are planning on working into retirement.
Importantly, this “age-group” are some of the highest income earners. Those job losses put a damper on hopes for a recovery in consumption. While 49% of those surveyed could only live off savings for one-year, the burden on pension and welfare funds will increase markedly.
Roadblocks To Saving
These are pretty depressing statistics when you think about it. However, for the bottom-80% of income earners whose income growth has been stagnant over the last two decades, the roadblocks to saving money shouldn’t be surprising.
In a survey from Kiplinger and Personal Capital, Americans said the biggest roadblocks to saving for retirement were:
The high cost of health insurance. “From 1999 to 2017, the cost of family health insurance coverage has more than doubled the amount of take-home pay it consumes.”
“From 1999 to 2017, the cost of family health insurance coverage has more than doubled the amount of take-home pay it consumes.” Disappointing investment performance. “Just under 30% of all respondents (29.4%) said that disappointing investment performance had stopped them from saving as much as they would have liked to for retirement.”
The amount of consumer debt they carried. “21.3% of Americans said that debt, not including student loans, kept them from saving for retirement combined with the increased costs of living.”
Filling The Gap
I showed the following chart recently, which illustrates the gap between income, savings, and the cost of living.
“The continued increases in debt, which was used to fill the gap between income and the cost of living, contributed to the retardation of economic growth.”
It’s hard to reduce debt when it is required just to “make ends meet.”
Pension Crisis Looms Large
Currently, 75.4 million Baby Boomers in America—about 26% of the U.S. population—have reached or will reach retirement age between 2011 and 2030. Many of them are public-sector employees. In a 2015 study of public-sector organizations, nearly 50% of the responding organizations stated they could lose 20% or more of their employees to retirement within the next five years.
Local governments are particularly vulnerable: a full 37% of local-government employees are at least 50-years of age in 2015.
That was 5-years and one-economic shutdown ago. Today, the roughly $6-trillion under-funding of pensions has now come home to roost. As noted previously:
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“Moody’s investor’s service estimated that state and local pension funds had lost $1 trillion in the market sell-off that began in February 2020. The exact damage is hard to determine, though, because pension funds do not issue quarterly reports. At the end of the year, we will find out the true extent of the damage. However, this is not, and has not been, a real plan to fix the underfunded problem. ‘Hope’ for higher rates of sustained returns continues to be the only palatable option. However, targeted returns have continuously fallen short of the projected goals.”
Can’t Catch Up
The amount owed to retirees is accelerating faster than assets on hand to pay those future obligations. Liabilities of major U.S. public pensions are up 64% since 2007, while assets are up 30%, according to the most recent data from Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research.
If the numbers above are right, pension funds must set aside the unfunded obligations of approximately $5-$6 trillion today. Without doing so, the principal and interest won’t cover the program’s shortfall between tax revenues and payouts over the next 75 years.
With boomers forced to retire sooner than planned due to the economic shutdown, the window of opportunity to fix pensions has closed.
“Demography, however, is destiny for entitlements, so arithmetic will do the meddling.” – George Will
Social Welfare Strains
It isn’t just “public pensions” that are in trouble. The collapse in economic growth has resulted in a collapse in Federal Tax revenue needed to pay for the massive social welfare schemes in the U.S.
It now requires in excess of 100% of tax receipts just to meet the mandatory spending of social welfare and interest on the debt. In other words, we are now going into debt more just to provide social assistance.
How bad is it?
Social Security will be insolvent and unable to pay the full value of promised benefits by 2035. Social Security’s costs will exceed its income by 2020, according to a new report published Monday by the program’s trustees. At the end of 2018, Social Security was providing income to about 67 million Americans. About 47 million of them were over age 65, and the majority of the rest were disabled. If nothing changes, the Social Security Trust Fund will be fully depleted by 2035. If such occurs, the program would impose across-the-board cuts of 20 percent to all beneficiaries.”
Getting Worse
That report, dire in its warning already, was issued before the “Pandemic” and “economic shutdown.”
Meanwhile, demographics are blowing up the basic premise of how Social Security is funded. There were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient in 2017. That’s down from 3.3 in 2007, and that’s way down from the 5.1 workers per beneficiary that existed in 1960.
Furthermore, the two programs function mostly as a giant conveyor belt to transfer wealth from the young and relatively poor to the old and relatively rich. Such allows the average person (who now lives to be 78) more than a decade of taxpayer-funded retirement.
Welfare now makes up the highest percentage of disposable personal incomes in history despite record low unemployment, rising wage growth, and the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.
During the “Great Depression,” the economically devastated masses would form “breadlines.” Today, those “breadlines” form at the mailbox. Today, without government largesse, many individuals would be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government “welfare” programs and current levels to date. The black line represents the sum of the underlying sub-components. Since the onset of the “pandemic,” unemployment insurance and “other benefits” have surged by $3 trillion along with continued rises in all other benefits, like social security, Medicaid, and Veterans’ benefits.
Importantly, for the average person, these social benefits are critical to their survival. Government assistance now makes up ~38% of real disposable personal incomes. With more than 1/3rd of incomes dependent on Federal assistance, it should not be surprising the economy continues to struggle. Recycled tax dollars used for consumptive purposes, has virtually no impact on increasing economic activity.
Bull Markets Aren’t The Answer
While the Fed keeps inflating stock markets, the “trickle-down” effect has yet to occur. Even as noted in the SimplyWise survey, “disappointing investment returns” have stunted retirees saving plans.
However, after 4-decades of transferring wealth from the middle-class to the rich, it is the top-10% of income earners, who own 88% of the stock market, such isn’t surprising. For the rest, two major bear markets, lack of wage growth, and surging costs of living have eroded any ability to build savings for retirement. Such is why most retirees will depend on social welfare for 50%, or more, of their retirement income.
“At the age of 63, ‘baby boomers’ are staring retirement in the face. Yet, because of the devastation of two major bear markets, they are no closer to their retirement goals than they were 13-years earlier.” – RIA
Despite a massive surge in the markets from the “Pandemic” lows, trillions in market support from the Fed, and household support from the Government, “retirement confidence” continues to erode.
The mirage of consumer wealth has not been a function of a broad-based increase in Americans’ net worth. Instead, it has been a division in the country between the Top 20% who have the wealth and the Bottom 80% dependent on increasing debt levels to sustain their current standard of living.
With the vast amount of individuals already vastly under-saved and dependent on social welfare, the current economic devastation will reveal the full extent of the “retirement crisis.”
Of course, this is also why the calls for more socialistic policies continue to rise.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--AOC Gets SHUT DOWN By DHS After Spewing Sick Lies about Police

100 % Fed Up reports , Radical lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez bragged about legislation that she and Eleanor Norton are attempting @ @ @ @ @ law enforcement officers identify themselves as such on their uniforms while on duty .
Unfortunately @ @ @ @ @ is perpetuating a lie to push a radical far left agenda that Antifa is somehow @ @ @ @ @ is the bad guy .

100% Fed Up reports, Radical lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez bragged about legislation that she and Eleanor Norton are attempting to pass to make federal law enforcement officers identify themselves as such on their uniforms while on duty. Unfortunately, AOC as usual, is perpetuating a lie to push a radical far left agenda that Antifa is somehow a victim and law enforcement is the bad guy.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
100percentfedup.com/aoc-shill…


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--US has stopped addressing Jinping as the President, and it’s a big deal

Xi is now referred to as the general secretary of the communist party instead of the president of china .

Xi is now referred to as the general secretary of the communist party instead of the president of china.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--TIKTOK Really Is Spying On You For China…  Beijing’s Move to Buy Arctic Gold Mine Draws Fire in Cana

TIKTOK Really Is Spying On You For China…  Beijing’s Move to Buy Arctic Gold Mine Draws Fire in Canada

TIKTOK Really Is Spying On You For China… The relentless pressure on TikTok ramped up further this week , with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo again claiming user data is sent to to China .
“ It ’ s not possible to have your personal information flow across a Chinese server , ” he warned during a British media interview , suggesting that data would “ end up in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party , ” which he characterized as an “ evil empire.
” TikTok is firmly in the sights of the Trump administration , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But now , as TikTok continues to deny U.S. accusations of data mishandling , of it bowing to pressure from Beijing , a new report from the cyber experts at ProtonMail has called those denials into question .
“ Beware , ” it warns , “ the social media giant not only collects troves of personal data on you , but also cooperates with the CCP , extending China ’ s surveillance and censorship reach beyond its borders.
” TikTok ’ s world is now dominated by speculation as to whether the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ app , cutting access to tens of millions of American users and calling a halt to TikTok ’ s soaraway growth .
The week had started with confirmation of a ban on federal employees installing the app on government-issued devices , seen by many as a precursor to some form of wider action by the Trump administration .
We also now know how such a ban would operate—TikTok would be added to a Commerce Department entity list , in the same way Huawei has been sanctioned .

TIKTOK Really Is Spying On You For China…
The relentless pressure on TikTok ramped up further this week, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo again claiming user data is sent to to China. “It’s not possible to have your personal information flow across a Chinese server,” he warned during a British media interview, suggesting that data would “end up in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party,” which he characterized as an “evil empire.” TikTok is firmly in the sights of the Trump administration, and they’re not letting up.
But now, as TikTok continues to deny U.S. accusations of data mishandling, of it bowing to pressure from Beijing, a new report from the cyber experts at ProtonMail has called those denials into question. “Beware,” it warns, “the social media giant not only collects troves of personal data on you, but also cooperates with the CCP, extending China’s surveillance and censorship reach beyond its borders.”
TikTok’s world is now dominated by speculation as to whether the U.S. will find some way to ban the app, cutting access to tens of millions of American users and calling a halt to TikTok’s soaraway growth. The week had started with confirmation of a ban on federal employees installing the app on government-issued devices, seen by many as a precursor to some form of wider action by the Trump administration. We also now know how such a ban would operate—TikTok would be added to a Commerce Department entity list, in the same way Huawei has been sanctioned.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--Is stagflation upon us?

Is stagflation upon us?

On Tuesday/Wednesday the Fed will hold its July Open Market Committee meetings .
The policy-setting gathering is certain to keep its main rate unchanged and push for continued easy money .
Fed Chairman Powell is sure to reiterate his concerns about the poor outlook for the economy , the miserable political environment and the continued negative impact of Covid19 on the country ’ s overall prospects .
The weak growth outlook is only part of what worries economists and policy makers .
Recently the possibility of a serious resurgence of inflation has entered into those people ’ s thinking .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the numbers yet , but the huge amounts of money sloshing around in the economy is a worrisome phenomenon .
The conversations surrounding the economic outlooks now center on the possibility of a hefty bout of stagflation about to descend upon us .
The prospect of rapid inflation and underperforming growth is something that sends shivers down the backs of all central bankers and financial managers .
It is a prospect we now must all face , especially since the Treasury is ready to push another bunch of stimulus money at us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet up against too few goods to buy is unclear , but we probably are close to that point .
The equity markets have not yet shown much interest in the potential stagflation scenario but they soon will be .
As a consequence we may see a sharp decline in stock prices everywhere .
In the US the decline in market prices could be especially pronounced , something we may see shortly .

by Paul Lengemann, BullsnBears Economist
On Tuesday/Wednesday the Fed will hold its July Open Market Committee meetings. The policy-setting gathering is certain to keep its main rate unchanged and push for continued easy money. Fed Chairman Powell is sure to reiterate his concerns about the poor outlook for the economy, the miserable political environment and the continued negative impact of Covid19 on the country’s overall prospects.
The weak growth outlook is only part of what worries economists and policy makers. Recently the possibility of a serious resurgence of inflation has entered into those people’s thinking. We don’t see much inflation in the numbers yet, but the huge amounts of money sloshing around in the economy is a worrisome phenomenon.
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The conversations surrounding the economic outlooks now center on the possibility of a hefty bout of stagflation about to descend upon us. The prospect of rapid inflation and underperforming growth is something that sends shivers down the backs of all central bankers and financial managers. It is a prospect we now must all face, especially since the Treasury is ready to push another bunch of stimulus money at us. Just when all that cash will meet up against too few goods to buy is unclear, but we probably are close to that point.
The equity markets have not yet shown much interest in the potential stagflation scenario but they soon will be. As a consequence we may see a sharp decline in stock prices everywhere. In the US the decline in market prices could be especially pronounced, something we may see shortly.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--New Yorkers: U.S. economy will bounce back under President Trump

Economic recovery has been a big topic for both presidential campaigns in 2020 .
One America ’ s Jack Posobiec @ @ @ @ @ they thought would be better at getting our economy moving post-COVID .

Economic recovery has been a big topic for both presidential campaigns in 2020. One America’s Jack Posobiec asked New Yorkers which candidate they thought would be better at getting our economy moving post-COVID.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-27--What It’s Really Like to Work in a COVID Ward

Editor ’ s Note : This article was written by a personal friend of mine .
This isn ’ t some stranger who wrote to me to share some story that may or may not be true .
This is a man I ’ ve known for years who has dedicated his entire career to caring for the health of others .
In this essay , he shares an average day in the COVID ward of the hospital where he works .
~ Daisy COVID virus has turned the world upside down .
From the economy of the planet to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friend .
Never mind the violence destroying our cities .
We are all dealing with this virus with totally unbelievable numbers , huge numbers of infected people , and a rising death toll .
Yet , I look out my living room window and see green grass , flowers blooming and some kids down the street playing basketball .
And then , I go to work .
The area where our day patients come in is called 2HVT .
All 14 rooms of 2HVT are now negative pressure rooms .
( Also called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevent airborne diseases from escaping the room and infecting others . )
All the rooms of the old Cardiac ICU , which is attached to our cath lab by a short hall , are now negative pressure rooms .
4 South on the 4th floor is now a COVID unit .
6 south , an old Ortho ward , and 5 South have been converted as well .
All these conversions are in the downtown hospital alone .
All patient areas of the 3 , newer hospitals in the system have been converted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news here in my new home state of South Carolina , no matter the station , it is the same thing : doom and gloom .
More and more infected people from testing , talking heads pointing the finger of blame , and numbers being sensationalized .
After all , “ If it bleeds it leads.
” It ’ s gotten so bad that I turn on the news just long enough to catch the weather and traffic for the morning drive from Summerville to Charleston .
But enough of that .
Let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like in the COVID step-down unit .
This unit is for people not sick enough to need high flow O2 or intubation , yet too sick to go to a “ regular ” floor .
( Like there is a regular COVID floor ! )
As with any floor , the “ permanent “ nurses and techs get morning reports from their night shift counterparts .
After getting the reports we start our rounds with the patients .
Wait…no , we don ’ t just walk into a COVID room .
It takes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entering a room .
Step 4 Put on face shield .
( We 3D print the frames for these .
And use pieces of acetate we get from Staples . )
Step 7 Triple check that everything is sealed and in order .
Now…we can go in the room .
We try to allow only 1 person at a time in the room , unless something demands that 2 people are needed .
The nurse or tech who goes in the room does not leave the room until they have completed all tasks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something this is where I come in .
If I am not assigned a patient , I run and get things .
We are runners .
We run and get whatever is needed .
We have Mayday bags stapled to the wall in front of each room .
Each of these Mayday bags contains the following : All of this must be put on prior to entering a room .
It is mandatory .
Even if the patient is dying .
Very little is talked about…so much to tell .
Even the little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endure take a huge toll on us .
A majority of our patients have lost their sense of taste and smell .
Some can only sense texture and temperature .
This makes it difficult and frustrating for our patients and staff .
The food delivered to our COVID patients is left at the “ Airlock ” .
In normal rooms , insulated containers can be used for the food , keeping it hot .
However , food in the COVID areas must be served using only paper plates , paper cups , paper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to use a microwave to heat the food just before it goes in the room .
In normal rooms a tech , nurse or CNA brings the food to the patients .
In our world , only the assigned nurse or tech brings the food .
And it may be a LONG wait due to having to microwave the food just prior to going in .
We have to coordinate routine care to keep the number of times a room is entered to a minimum .
( I have become an expert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ food ! )
One thing the virus does that many people outside of the medical field don ’ t know is it interferes with the blood clotting cascade .
Believe you me , as a former Medical Lab Tech ( MLT ) I would LOVE to go over in mind-numbing detail the 12 steps of clotting .
The intrinsic and extrinsic pathway that lead to a fibrin strand… ” OUCH !
” ( My wife just tossed a crafts magazine at me .
I started describing the steps .
In detail . )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ lungs , COVID can cause deep vein thrombosis .
It also causes DIC ( Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation . )
Post mortem exams have revealed up to 30 % of early COVID patients had elevated D-Dimer , C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase .
All markers for clotting system problems , which has led to death by stroke , even in young people .
Some patients are in denial until the last moment .
Recently , I was helping to discharge a fairly young patient , about the mid to late 40s .
As I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his experience , I asked how he ended up in ICU and then in my area .
He told me he thought he had a summer cold .
He thought the whole virus was a hoax and refused to wear a mask .
When his wife brought him in he thought it was a bad cold AND an ulcer .
He complained of stomach pain , severe diarrhea , and shortness of breath .
He was admitted to our COVID floor , still in denial .
What he had believed was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his sense of smell .
Then he crashed .
The anesthesiologist did what is called rapid sequence intubation .
The patient is given sedative and paralytic drugs .
That ’ s it .
Once they are intubated , they are put out .
He told me when they jerked his head back and he saw that the young doctor looking scared though his protective gear he knew then it wasn ’ t a hoax .
Good news : we ARE saving more than we lose .
Here in Charleston where I work , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If they go to the ICU their stay is about double that .
In the last 3 weeks we have dropped from 44 % to 31 % of our inpatients being in for COVID .
Our percentage of positive COVID tests is at about 21 % .
We test EVERY PATIENT that comes in the hospital .
We have a long way to go .
We still have shortages of protective gear , but we improvise , adapt and overcome .
Up to 170 or so of our teammates , young and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with COVID .
Some ended up in the ICU .
Our hospital is finding ways to use senior management .
A large group of nurses that haven ’ t been bedside in years are filling in as runners , housekeepers , and patient transport .
This is part of a corporate email from this past week .
( Patient sensitive information has been removed . )
Hero ’ s ?
Nah…We signed up for this because we wanted to help .
I ’ m not going to berate , belittle , or bully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to personal protective equipment .
I am going to ask that you be careful .
You do not want someone like me or my old Ranger bud Johnny doing CPR on you .
You will end up with damaged ribs .
I ’ m pretty blessed to be working at Roper St. Francis Healthcare , Roper Hospital .
We show up to work each day to care for our patients , and we go home to rest up a little before doing it again the next day .
Some of us , myself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the term “ hero ” .
It is MY job to take care of YOU if you end up in OUR hospital .
It is YOUR job to stay healthy , be careful , and be smart about this virus .

by Chuck Hudson
Editor’s Note: This article was written by a personal friend of mine. This isn’t some stranger who wrote to me to share some story that may or may not be true. This is a man I’ve known for years who has dedicated his entire career to caring for the health of others. In this essay, he shares an average day in the COVID ward of the hospital where he works. ~ Daisy
COVID virus has turned the world upside down. From the economy of the planet to pitting neighbor against neighbor and friend against friend. Never mind the violence destroying our cities. We are all dealing with this virus with totally unbelievable numbers, huge numbers of infected people, and a rising death toll.
Yet, I look out my living room window and see green grass, flowers blooming and some kids down the street playing basketball.
And then, I go to work.
The area where our day patients come in is called 2HVT. All 14 rooms of 2HVT are now negative pressure rooms. (Also called isolation rooms, negative pressure rooms help prevent airborne diseases from escaping the room and infecting others.) All the rooms of the old Cardiac ICU, which is attached to our cath lab by a short hall, are now negative pressure rooms. 4 South on the 4th floor is now a COVID unit. 6 south, an old Ortho ward, and 5 South have been converted as well. All these conversions are in the downtown hospital alone. All patient areas of the 3, newer hospitals in the system have been converted to handle COVID patients.
Watching the news here in my new home state of South Carolina, no matter the station, it is the same thing: doom and gloom. More and more infected people from testing, talking heads pointing the finger of blame, and numbers being sensationalized. After all, “If it bleeds it leads.” It’s gotten so bad that I turn on the news just long enough to catch the weather and traffic for the morning drive from Summerville to Charleston.
But enough of that. Let me tell you what it is really like in the COVID step-down unit. This unit is for people not sick enough to need high flow O2 or intubation, yet too sick to go to a “regular” floor. (Like there is a regular COVID floor!) As with any floor, the “permanent “ nurses and techs get morning reports from their night shift counterparts. After getting the reports we start our rounds with the patients.
Wait…no, we don’t just walk into a COVID room.
It takes about 3-5 minutes to gear up before entering a room.
Step 1 put on a set of gloves.
Step 2 Put on impermeable gown.
Step 3 Put on N95 mask.
Step 4 Put on face shield. ( We 3D print the frames for these. And use pieces of acetate we get from Staples. )
Step 6 Put on 2nd set of gloves.
Step 7 Triple check that everything is sealed and in order.
Now…we can go in the room.
We try to allow only 1 person at a time in the room, unless something demands that 2 people are needed. The nurse or tech who goes in the room does not leave the room until they have completed all tasks. If the nurse or techs needs something this is where I come in. If I am not assigned a patient, I run and get things. We are runners. We run and get whatever is needed.
What about emergencies?
Same procedure.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We have Mayday bags stapled to the wall in front of each room. Each of these Mayday bags contains the following:
2 N95’s: small and regular
“Bunny Suit”
Face shield (We 3D print face shields in-house)
6 pairs of separately bagged gloves (sm, med, lg)
Bouffant hat
All of this must be put on prior to entering a room. It is mandatory. Even if the patient is dying.
Very little is talked about…so much to tell.
Even the little things that the patients and the staff endure take a huge toll on us.
A majority of our patients have lost their sense of taste and smell. Some can only sense texture and temperature. This makes it difficult and frustrating for our patients and staff. The food delivered to our COVID patients is left at the “Airlock”. In normal rooms, insulated containers can be used for the food, keeping it hot. However, food in the COVID areas must be served using only paper plates, paper cups, paper serving trays and plastic ware. We have to use a microwave to heat the food just before it goes in the room.
In normal rooms a tech, nurse or CNA brings the food to the patients. In our world, only the assigned nurse or tech brings the food. And it may be a LONG wait due to having to microwave the food just prior to going in. We have to coordinate routine care to keep the number of times a room is entered to a minimum. (I have become an expert at microwaving paper plates of hospital grade food!)
One thing the virus does that many people outside of the medical field don’t know is it interferes with the blood clotting cascade. Believe you me, as a former Medical Lab Tech (MLT) I would LOVE to go over in mind-numbing detail the 12 steps of clotting. The intrinsic and extrinsic pathway that lead to a fibrin strand…”OUCH!” (My wife just tossed a crafts magazine at me. I started describing the steps. In detail.)
So, in addition to damaging the lungs, COVID can cause deep vein thrombosis. It also causes DIC (Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation.) Post mortem exams have revealed up to 30% of early COVID patients had elevated D-Dimer, C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase. All markers for clotting system problems, which has led to death by stroke, even in young people.
Some patients are in denial until the last moment.
Recently, I was helping to discharge a fairly young patient, about the mid to late 40s. As I was getting his history and gathering information on his experience, I asked how he ended up in ICU and then in my area.
He told me he thought he had a summer cold. He thought the whole virus was a hoax and refused to wear a mask. When his wife brought him in he thought it was a bad cold AND an ulcer. He complained of stomach pain, severe diarrhea, and shortness of breath. He was admitted to our COVID floor, still in denial. What he had believed was a stuffed up nose was actually him losing his sense of smell. Then he crashed.
The anesthesiologist did what is called rapid sequence intubation. The patient is given sedative and paralytic drugs. That’s it. Once they are intubated, they are put out.
He told me when they jerked his head back and he saw that the young doctor looking scared though his protective gear he knew then it wasn’t a hoax.
Good news: we ARE saving more than we lose.
Here in Charleston where I work, our average patient stay is 4 days. If they go to the ICU their stay is about double that. In the last 3 weeks we have dropped from 44% to 31% of our inpatients being in for COVID. Our percentage of positive COVID tests is at about 21%. We test EVERY PATIENT that comes in the hospital.
We have a game plan:
Remdesivir
Lovanox
Plasma antibodies from COVID survivors
Intervene and intubate
ECMO: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (to treat some patients)
We have a long way to go. We still have shortages of protective gear, but we improvise, adapt and overcome. Up to 170 or so of our teammates, young and not so young, have been out with COVID. Some ended up in the ICU. Our hospital is finding ways to use senior management. A large group of nurses that haven’t been bedside in years are filling in as runners, housekeepers, and patient transport.
This is part of a corporate email from this past week. (Patient sensitive information has been removed.)
Roper St. Francis Healthcare has tested and confirmed that 46 more patients since Tuesday have COVID-19, bringing our total to 3,806 since the beginning of the pandemic. Once each week, we will provide additional information about our testing and which segments of the population are most affected by the virus. In the past seven days, 19 percent of our 3,014 COVID-19 tests have been positive, which is down from our 22 percent positive rate during the past 14 days. Our overall positive rate since we started COVID-19 testing is 15 percent. We have 949 tests pending. Of those testing positive in the past seven days, – 19 percent are under 29 years old – 15 percent are 30-39 years old – 12 percent are 40-49 years old – 17 percent are 50-59 years old – 16 percent are 60-69 years old – 20 percent are over 70 years old Thirty four percent of those patients have been white, 44 percent have been Black, 5 percent have been Latino and 16 percent have been other. The areas where we’ve seen the largest number of new cases are North Charleston, Charleston and Summerville. There have been 3,882,167 cases nationally with a total of 141,677 deaths, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. South Carolina has had 73,101 confirmed cases and 1,203 deaths.
Hero’s? Nah…We signed up for this because we wanted to help.
I’m not going to berate, belittle, or bully anyone over their choice when it comes to personal protective equipment. I am going to ask that you be careful. You do not want someone like me or my old Ranger bud Johnny doing CPR on you. You will end up with damaged ribs.
I’m pretty blessed to be working at Roper St. Francis Healthcare, Roper Hospital. We show up to work each day to care for our patients, and we go home to rest up a little before doing it again the next day. Some of us, myself included, don’t care much for the term “hero”. It is MY job to take care of YOU if you end up in OUR hospital. It is YOUR job to stay healthy, be careful, and be smart about this virus.