investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--As Economies Reopen, the USD Faces this Triple Threat

The U.S. dollar ’ s status as the global reserve currency has been under attack for many years .
But today , these attacks seem to be expanding and intensifying .
Let ’ s look at three recent developments .
Now that most state economies have at least started to reopen , Goldman Sachs is betting against the dollar , according to a recent CNBC article : The article continued by explaining precisely what “ short selling ” the dollar means : Specifically , Goldman is betting on the Norwegian krone to outperform the dollar , and thinks the krone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Recent performance of the dollar ( DXY ) could be revealing that Goldman Sachs is off to a good start with their bet : As you can see at the far right of the chart , the dollar ’ s value is dropping close to levels not seen since early 2018 .
It ’ s also severely under the moving average .
Meanwhile , the krone is still above the moving average , and doesn ’ t appear nearly as “ flat ” as the dollar .
But the krone is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s hegemony ; changes to China ’ s currency represents another one .
4-Letter Potential “ Nightmare ” for the U.S. Dollar Right now , the main currency in China is the yuan .
That may change , however , as there have recently been indications that it may be phased out and replaced by a Central Bank Digital Currency ( CBDC ) .
And thanks to the COVID-19 outbreak , this process has accelerated , according to a recent Forbes article : The same piece continued by issuing a stark warning as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their CBDC a reality : And if overseas tensions with China ’ s CBDC weren ’ t bad enough for the dollar , the Fed may be mucking things up even more .
Fed ’ s Efforts to “ Help ” the Dollar May Not Be Much Help To make matters even more challenging , the Fed ’ s recent efforts to prop up the markets may be making things worse for the dollar : With Goldman Sachs shorting the greenback , China trying to lure people away , and the Fed screwing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not good .
One thing is certain : Over the next few months , it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the relationship between the dollar and gold .
Hedge Your Bets While There is Still Time The dollar appears to be weakening , and over time it might weaken dramatically .
The good news is that both gold and silver have a history of increasing as the dollar slides .
Now is the time to get in front of the trend , before it ’ s too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become close to worthless , your buying power goes out the window with it .
Precious metals can help act as a store of value , preserving some of that .
All you can do is hedge your bets , and now is the time to decide if that move is right for you .

From Birch Gold Group
The U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency has been under attack for many years. But today, these attacks seem to be expanding and intensifying. Let’s look at three recent developments.
Big Bank Bets Against the Dollar
Now that most state economies have at least started to reopen, Goldman Sachs is betting against the dollar, according to a recent CNBC article:
In a note over the weekend, Goldman strategists said that while they had maintained that it was too early to look for “outright and sustained Dollar downside given the balance of cyclical risks,” shorts on the dollar now looked attractive in certain currency crosses.
The article continued by explaining precisely what “short selling” the dollar means:
Short selling a currency involves borrowing that currency, selling it at the current market price and then waiting for the price to fall in order to buy the currency back at a lower price and return the loan.
Specifically, Goldman is betting on the Norwegian krone to outperform the dollar, and thinks the krone is well positioned to do just that.
Recent performance of the dollar (DXY) could be revealing that Goldman Sachs is off to a good start with their bet:
As you can see at the far right of the chart, the dollar’s value is dropping close to levels not seen since early 2018. It’s also severely under the moving average.
Meanwhile, the krone is still above the moving average, and doesn’t appear nearly as “flat” as the dollar.
But the krone is not the only challenge to the dollar’s hegemony; changes to China’s currency represents another one.
4-Letter Potential “Nightmare” for the U.S. Dollar
Right now, the main currency in China is the yuan.
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That may change, however, as there have recently been indications that it may be phased out and replaced by a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). And thanks to the COVID-19 outbreak, this process has accelerated, according to a recent Forbes article:
The U.S. dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency could be numbered, with some of the biggest ever changes to government-backed central bank currencies looming—and China leading the field.
The same piece continued by issuing a stark warning as China moves closer and closer to making their CBDC a reality:
China will pull out all the stops to convince international trading partners to switch from the dollar to their new currency. If they manage to lure enough users, the U.S. dollar could be in deep trouble.
And if overseas tensions with China’s CBDC weren’t bad enough for the dollar, the Fed may be mucking things up even more.
Fed’s Efforts to “Help” the Dollar May Not Be Much Help
To make matters even more challenging, the Fed’s recent efforts to prop up the markets may be making things worse for the dollar:
Potential risks of the combined cross-party rescue bill and Fed’s biggest-ever bazooka include out-of-control inflation, the dollar’s displacement as the world’s funding currency, and the complete destabilization of the U.S. financial system.
With Goldman Sachs shorting the greenback, China trying to lure people away, and the Fed screwing things up… the outlook for the USD is not good.
One thing is certain: Over the next few months, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the relationship between the dollar and gold.
Hedge Your Bets While There is Still Time
The dollar appears to be weakening, and over time it might weaken dramatically. The good news is that both gold and silver have a history of increasing as the dollar slides.
Now is the time to get in front of the trend, before it’s too late. If the dollar were to become close to worthless, your buying power goes out the window with it. Precious metals can help act as a store of value, preserving some of that.
All you can do is hedge your bets, and now is the time to decide if that move is right for you.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--RIOTS: Arrest Made for the Arson of Fayetteville’s Historic Market House & Raleigh Man Arrested for

RIOTS: Arrest Made for the Arson of Fayetteville’s Historic Market House & Raleigh Man Arrested for Attempting to Set Fire to Raleigh Police

Arrest Made for the Arson of Fayetteville ’ s Historic Market House RALEIGH , N.C. – A Fayetteville man was arrested today for taking part in the arson of Fayetteville ’ s Market House after an otherwise peaceful demonstration over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis , Minnesota , turned violent , Robert J. Higdon , Jr. , U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of North Carolina announced .
Charles Anthony Pittman , of Fayetteville was arrested by special agents of the ATF and is charged by complaint with one count of maliciously damaging property owned or possessed by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pittman will make his initial appearance June 9 , 2020 , by videoconference before U.S. Magistrate Judge Robert T. Numbers , II .
According to the complaint , on May 30 , 2020 , an otherwise peaceful protest in downtown Fayetteville turned violent when several individuals set fire to the Market House .
A local television crew caught Pittman on camera showing a red gasoline container to the crowd below before he poured its contents throughout the floor of the second story .
Pittman ran out of the Market House as the floor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including an employee , still inside .
As a result of the fire , the Market House sustained charring and mass wood loss to the second story floor .
Earlier that same day , Pittman broadcasted a Facebook Live video while he drove around the Market House traffic circle .
Pittman claimed to be scoping out the scene , as he discussed whether the Market House should come down .
After noting the inaction of the peaceful protesters , saying they would just “ barbeque and mildew , ” Pittman promised the Facebook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Pittman wore the same shirt in the Facebook Live video that he wore later at the Market House fire .
www.justice.gov/usao-ednc/pr/arrest-made-arson-fayetteville-s-historic-market-house Raleigh Man Arrested for Attempting to Set Fire to Raleigh Police Department Vehicle A fingerprint had been lifted off of the Hennessey bottle recovered at the scene .
A latent print examiner determined the print to be the left ring finger of Davis .
Davis was interviewed at his residence where he admitted to being the subject who intentionally set the police vehicle at the Southeast District on fire .
Davis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with everything going on.
” www.justice.gov/usao-ednc/pr/raleigh-man-arrested-attempting-set-fire-raleigh-police-department-vehicle

Arrest Made for the Arson of Fayetteville’s Historic Market House
RALEIGH, N.C. – A Fayetteville man was arrested today for taking part in the arson of Fayetteville’s Market House after an otherwise peaceful demonstration over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, turned violent, Robert J. Higdon, Jr., U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of North Carolina announced.
Charles Anthony Pittman, of Fayetteville was arrested by special agents of the ATF and is charged by complaint with one count of maliciously damaging property owned or possessed by an institution receiving federal financial assistance. Pittman will make his initial appearance June 9, 2020, by videoconference before U.S. Magistrate Judge Robert T. Numbers, II.
According to the complaint, on May 30, 2020, an otherwise peaceful protest in downtown Fayetteville turned violent when several individuals set fire to the Market House. A local television crew caught Pittman on camera showing a red gasoline container to the crowd below before he poured its contents throughout the floor of the second story. Pittman ran out of the Market House as the floor caught on fire with other individuals, including an employee, still inside. As a result of the fire, the Market House sustained charring and mass wood loss to the second story floor.
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Earlier that same day, Pittman broadcasted a Facebook Live video while he drove around the Market House traffic circle. Pittman claimed to be scoping out the scene, as he discussed whether the Market House should come down. After noting the inaction of the peaceful protesters, saying they would just “barbeque and mildew,” Pittman promised the Facebook Live audience that he would be back. Pittman wore the same shirt in the Facebook Live video that he wore later at the Market House fire.
www.justice.gov/usao-ednc/pr/arrest-made-arson-fayetteville-s-historic-market-house
Raleigh Man Arrested for Attempting to Set Fire to Raleigh Police Department Vehicle
A fingerprint had been lifted off of the Hennessey bottle recovered at the scene. A latent print examiner determined the print to be the left ring finger of Davis. Davis was interviewed at his residence where he admitted to being the subject who intentionally set the police vehicle at the Southeast District on fire. Davis stated that he is “pissed off with everything going on.”
www.justice.gov/usao-ednc/pr/raleigh-man-arrested-attempting-set-fire-raleigh-police-department-vehicle
h/t Always


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Because of the DC Mayor Bowser, and The Head of the Pentagon Our National Gaurds Mens Are Sleeping o

Because of the DC Mayor Bowser, and The Head of the Pentagon Our National Gaurds Mens Are Sleeping on the Streets of DC

When this is over , these heroes are going to be the most loved people in our nation .
What @ @ @ @ @ this as veterans , patriots , Americans ?
!
If the mayor can take action @ @ @ @ @ sisters like this , we can take action as well ?
!
What can we @ @ @ @ @ need a POINT OF CONTACT ( POC ) pic.twitter.com/wAfdExeciH

When this is over, these heroes are going to be the most loved people in our nation.
What are our options to solve this as veterans, patriots, Americans?! If the mayor can take action to treat our brothers and sisters like this, we can take action as well?!
What can we do? First, we need a POINT OF CONTACT (POC) pic.twitter.com/wAfdExeciH
— Code of Vets ™ (@codeofvets) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Volatile market decline to soon begin

Volatile market decline to soon begin

The Bear Trader , a spin off from the Bull & Bear Tracker , is ready to profit from a @ @ @ @ @ the market which will soon arrive .
The charts below are the danger signs which @ @ @ @ @ spirits are alive well .
The chart below depicts that the five leading tech stocks @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 ’ s market cap than the 2000 bubble .

The Bear Trader, a spin off from the Bull & Bear Tracker, is ready to profit from a sudden and swift correction for the market which will soon arrive. The charts below are the danger signs which indicate that the speculative animal spirits are alive well.
The chart below depicts that the five leading tech stocks account for more the S&P 500’s market cap than the 2000 bubble.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Mapping Civil Unrest in the United States (2000–2020)

Note : Due to widespread nature of protests related to the killing of George Floyd , we only evaluated the 32 urban areas in the U.S. with populations of 1.5 million or more .
Protests are a regular feature of democratic society , but they can occasionally cross over from non-violent demonstrations into civil unrest .
Even protests that are largely peaceful can still result in arrests , violence , police aggression , and property damage .
Our animated map above looks at the last two decades of civil unrest in the United States using lists compiled on Wikipedia .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ news cycle , and we rarely have the chance to examine the bigger picture or see where they fit within a nation-wide pattern .
From this map we can see that certain cities , such as St. Louis and Oakland , have been disproportionately impacted by civil unrest .
As well , universities have also been hotspots for rioting , though often for much different reasons .
Looking back over two decades , we see that instances of civil unrest in the United States have fallen into roughly four categories : Let ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example in each of these categories , to get further context .
One of the most prominent examples in this category is the Occupy Wall Street movement .
The protests began in September 2011 in Downtown Manhattan , and soon spread through cities throughout the world .
In 2016 , the Dakota Access Pipeline protests grabbed headlines around the world as protesters faced off against armed soldiers and police with riot gear and military equipment .
By the time camps were broken up the next year , hundreds of people had been arrested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority of incidents plotted on the map are related to sports and events .
This includes major sporting events like the L.A. Lakers championship win in 2000 , but also the University of Maryland riot of 2004 , where rowdy post-game celebrations crossed over into arson and property damage .
A more recent example is the Philadelphia Eagles ’ first-ever Super Bowl victory in 2018 , where celebrations eventually got out of hand .
The political divide has been growing in America for years now , but those differences more frequently resulted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After the election of Donald Trump , for example , protests erupted in many cities , with riots breaking out in Portland , Oregon , and Oakland , California .
Of course , the “ Bundy standoff ” – an armed confrontation between supporters of cattle rancher Cliven Bundy and law enforcement over withheld grazing fees – showed that not all civil unrest takes place in America ’ s cities .
Some of the biggest flashpoints seen in recent years have been in response to people who were killed by police .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points on our map were a direct response to incidents in which a person – typically a black male – died at the hands of law enforcement officials .
In previous years , the unrest that followed was typically confined to the cities where the death took place , but protests are now increasingly erupting in cities around the country .
The death of George Floyd – the latest black male to be killed during an encounter with law enforcement – has had a ripple effect , spawning protests in cities around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ map showing the history of civil unrest makes clear , excessive force from police against black citizens is nothing new .
The data shows that black men have by far the highest risk of being killed in an encounter with law enforcement .
Until these systemic issues are addressed , history may not be repeat exactly , but the rhyme will sound very , very familiar .

by visualcapitalist
Note: Due to widespread nature of protests related to the killing of George Floyd, we only evaluated the 32 urban areas in the U.S. with populations of 1.5 million or more.
Protests are a regular feature of democratic society, but they can occasionally cross over from non-violent demonstrations into civil unrest. Even protests that are largely peaceful can still result in arrests, violence, police aggression, and property damage.
Our animated map above looks at the last two decades of civil unrest in the United States using lists compiled on Wikipedia.
Instances of civil unrest eventually leave the news cycle, and we rarely have the chance to examine the bigger picture or see where they fit within a nation-wide pattern.
From this map we can see that certain cities, such as St. Louis and Oakland, have been disproportionately impacted by civil unrest. As well, universities have also been hotspots for rioting, though often for much different reasons.
Looking back over two decades, we see that instances of civil unrest in the United States have fallen into roughly four categories:
Economic and social injustice Sports and event related riots Politically motivated civil unrest Reaction to police actions
Let’s take a look at a prominent example in each of these categories, to get further context.
Examples of Civil Unrest, by Category
1. Economic and Social Justice
One of the most prominent examples in this category is the Occupy Wall Street movement. The protests began in September 2011 in Downtown Manhattan, and soon spread through cities throughout the world.
In 2016, the Dakota Access Pipeline protests grabbed headlines around the world as protesters faced off against armed soldiers and police with riot gear and military equipment. By the time camps were broken up the next year, hundreds of people had been arrested.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
2. Sports and Event Related Riots
Between 2000 and 2010, the majority of incidents plotted on the map are related to sports and events. This includes major sporting events like the L.A. Lakers championship win in 2000, but also the University of Maryland riot of 2004, where rowdy post-game celebrations crossed over into arson and property damage.
A more recent example is the Philadelphia Eagles’ first-ever Super Bowl victory in 2018, where celebrations eventually got out of hand.
3. Politically Motivated Civil Unrest
The political divide has been growing in America for years now, but those differences more frequently resulted in confrontations and civil unrest in 2016. After the election of Donald Trump, for example, protests erupted in many cities, with riots breaking out in Portland, Oregon, and Oakland, California.
Of course, the “Bundy standoff” – an armed confrontation between supporters of cattle rancher Cliven Bundy and law enforcement over withheld grazing fees – showed that not all civil unrest takes place in America’s cities.
4. Reaction to Police Actions
Some of the biggest flashpoints seen in recent years have been in response to people who were killed by police.
In fact, more than half of the points on our map were a direct response to incidents in which a person – typically a black male – died at the hands of law enforcement officials. In previous years, the unrest that followed was typically confined to the cities where the death took place, but protests are now increasingly erupting in cities around the country.
The Situation Now
The death of George Floyd – the latest black male to be killed during an encounter with law enforcement – has had a ripple effect, spawning protests in cities around the United States and internationally.
As our map showing the history of civil unrest makes clear, excessive force from police against black citizens is nothing new. The data shows that black men have by far the highest risk of being killed in an encounter with law enforcement.
Until these systemic issues are addressed, history may not be repeat exactly, but the rhyme will sound very, very familiar.


Minsky Melt-up Explained?!?

America ( and the world at large ) are in the midst of an entirely predictable demographically driven crisis , between an economic/financial system requiring infinite growth and a very finite human/physical world .
This mismatch will only become more acute for decades to come .
As the growth of demand is decelerating , central banks are using interest rate policy cuts to encourage higher consumption via greater leverage/debt .
Federal debt is soaring absent the economic ( and tax revenue ) growth to accompany this deluge of debt .
I will show that the primary purchasing sources of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into this breach , the Fed has thrust itself as the buyer ( counterfeiter ) of last resort .
The result is likely to be a Minsky Melt-Up…and then the fall that typically follows .
First , by year end 2020 ( estimated below ) , federal debt will almost surely cross $ 28 trillion while GDP will collapse in Q2 with likely recovery through Q3/Q4 .
The outcome will be a debt to GDP ratio likely around 140 % …smashing the WWII previous high water mark .
Noteworthy also in the chart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and reliance on the Federal Reserve balance sheet ( QE ) to maintain zero percent interest rates .
Since 2008 , public ( marketable ) federal debt has nearly quadrupled , up by $ 14.7 trillion .
Social Security and like Intragovernmental trust fund holdings have risen $ 1.8 trillion .
The Federal Reserve balance sheet has increased by 8x ’ s , up by $ 6.3 trillion .
In fact , most simply , it is the Federal Reserve using it ’ s balance sheet as the substitute for the demographically decelerating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will only continue to decline due to the unfunded liabilities ( and with it the primary source of Treasury buying for decades turns to a decade of Treasury selling ) , the Fed ’ s balance sheet will rise inversely to avoid an interest rate Armageddon .
To underscore the Fed ’ s role as buyer of last resort , below are the four classes of Treasury buyers/holders .
I split the change in holdings by group , per period : While the Federal Reserve has decreed the Federal Funds rate to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Congress has understood this zero interest rate policy to mean “ free ” money since the interest rates are so low .
The Federal Reserve ’ s actions have destroyed Congress ’ primary role of compromise , striking a balance between spending and taxation .
For those that wonder why “ fiscal conservatism ” died , it was the Federal Reserve that killed it .
Ok , let ’ s focus on the Fed ’ s balance sheet .
The Fed is presently slamming on the brakes on it ’ s QE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of $ 585 billion weekly to “ just ” $ 68 billion this week .
And the Fed is communicating they will continue to slow their purchasing .
Chart below shows the Fed balance sheet ( red line ) and weekly change ( black columns ) since 2008 .
I assume the Fed will continue tapering their purchases through year end 2020 , ending the year with a balance sheet of something like $ 8.3 trillion ( adding about $ 4.5 trillion since QT ended in September 2019 , or a 220 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 15 months time ) .
The Fed truly distorted the interest rates of Treasuries with it ’ s massive purchases in such a short period .
Given the duration and laddering of bonds , only a relatively small percentage is available at any certain time so the size and suddenness of the Fed purchases overwhelmed the Treasury market .
During QE Corona-Virus , the Fed has thus far purchased $ 587 billion in T-Bills…in fact even this week , the Fed did most of its ongoing buying here , adding an additional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further steeping the curve between short and long duration rates ) .
The nearly $ 600 billion in freshly conjured demand collapsed the short end of the curve ( 3 month T-Bill shown below ) to zero .
But despite the enormous Fed purchasing , the natural rate is likely significantly higher than 0.2 % …and without ongoing Fed subjugation , rates will continue to rise .
From the completion of QT to present , the Fed has purchased $ 750 billion in shorter duration Notes…but the buying has ceased , as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
Again , the Fed has distorted the free market setting of rates with it ’ s conjured money but rates are turning upward and as the supply of new and rollover Notes continues , the absence of demand typically results in rising rates .
Below , longer duration Fed held Notes .
The $ 470 billion rise in Fed holdings since the end of QT is hard to miss…but equally important is the decelerating purchasing of more debt and the Fed signaling it will only continue at low levels of purchasing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchasing has subsided , the all important 10 year Treasury rate is suddenly rising…like an inflatable held down underwater .
The Fed has temporarily distorted the free market rates of Notes with it ’ s conjured money .
However , rates are turning upward and as the supply of new and rollover Notes continues , the absence of demand typically results in rising rates…as we are now seeing .
The impact of a fast rising 10 year ( the foundation of the 30 year mortgage rate ) would rapidly push mortgage rates on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher levels…and crush a housing led “ v-shaped ” recovery meme ?
!
?
The Fed purchased $ 312 billion of Treasury Bonds since QT was abandoned .
Given the much smaller quantity outstanding of long bonds , this represented more than 10 % of all marketable long bonds in just a few months time , increasing the Fed ’ s total long bond holdings to nearly 35 % of marketable .
The Fed ’ s action of plunging the 30 year rate to nearly 1 % was a deformation of incredible proportion…but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counter reaction upward absent the Fed ’ s ongoing bid .
Is the Fed about to back off and let the “ free-market ” determine Treasury interest rates ?
Not likely , the Fed no longer ( if ever ) believes in free market price discovery .
So , best to check the Fed ’ s balance sheet split between the portion held in large banks as excess reserves and the portion moving directly into the economy/financial system ( monetization ) .
When the Fed began QE , Ben Bernanke then stated the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Fed conjured dollars would be held essentially inert as excess reserves…and then subsequently be removed via quantitative tightening .
This was a bald faced lie then and is even more laughable now .
During the initial stages of QE , about 2/3rds of the Federal Reserve newly created dollars were held as excess reserves ( + $ 2.7 T ) while ( + $ 1.2 T ) moved into the financial system .
And the impact of monetization on asset prices ( showing Wilshire 5000 , representing all publicly held US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ QE ended in late 2014 through the present…a strong correlation should be noted between the rising quantity of monetization ( post QE ) and asset valuations .
During the last cycle ( post QE ) the Fed raised IOER ’ s alongside the FFR % , essentially paying banks not to loan money , paying them for taking no risk .
This time , the Fed is offering essentially no payment on the excess reserves , encouraging banks to employ those reserves…and that is exactly what I anticipate we will see .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( interest paid on excess reserves , held at the largest of banks ) versus the excess reserves and monetization .
The Fed continuing QE alongside declining excess reserves , will push the quantity of monetization into orbit .
If the excess reserves decline and the correlations hold ( both as expected ) …all those freshly conjured dollars will be in frantic search for a leveraged home via loans and/or asset purchase…and look out as assets explode higher on a wave of “ legal ” counterfeit Fed cash .
Perhaps there will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by which the largest banks maintain the Treasury bid while simultaneously leveraging up…or perhaps the Fed will double down it ’ s Treasury purchasing , otherwise rates will soar alongside equities ?
And just so we are clear , this surge in asset prices will benefit a small minority of Americans and actively harm the vast majority via costs of living surging versus significant unemployment and flat wages .
Wonder how that will go over as 2020 is likely to only get a whole lot more “ interesting ” !
?
!

by C Hamilton
America (and the world at large) are in the midst of an entirely predictable demographically driven crisis, between an economic/financial system requiring infinite growth and a very finite human/physical world. This mismatch will only become more acute for decades to come. As the growth of demand is decelerating, central banks are using interest rate policy cuts to encourage higher consumption via greater leverage/debt. Federal debt is soaring absent the economic (and tax revenue) growth to accompany this deluge of debt. I will show that the primary purchasing sources of that debt have turned to net sellers…and that into this breach, the Fed has thrust itself as the buyer (counterfeiter) of last resort. The result is likely to be a Minsky Melt-Up…and then the fall that typically follows.
First, by year end 2020 (estimated below), federal debt will almost surely cross $28 trillion while GDP will collapse in Q2 with likely recovery through Q3/Q4. The outcome will be a debt to GDP ratio likely around 140%…smashing the WWII previous high water mark. Noteworthy also in the chart below are the new standards of ZIRP and reliance on the Federal Reserve balance sheet (QE) to maintain zero percent interest rates.
Since 2008, public (marketable) federal debt has nearly quadrupled, up by $14.7 trillion. Social Security and like Intragovernmental trust fund holdings have risen $1.8 trillion. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has increased by 8x’s, up by $6.3 trillion. In fact, most simply, it is the Federal Reserve using it’s balance sheet as the substitute for the demographically decelerating IG purchasing. As the IG holdings will only continue to decline due to the unfunded liabilities (and with it the primary source of Treasury buying for decades turns to a decade of Treasury selling), the Fed’s balance sheet will rise inversely to avoid an interest rate Armageddon.
To underscore the Fed’s role as buyer of last resort, below are the four classes of Treasury buyers/holders. I split the change in holdings by group, per period:
2009 through ’14…the QE years (everybody buys…especially Fed, Foreigners)
2015 through ’19…the QT years (IG and especially domestic sources do the buying, Fed sells, foreigners pass)
January through May, 2020…the p(l)andemic 5 months (IG sells, foreigners pass, Fed goes wild w/ a domestic assist (unfortunately, Treasury Bulletin for 2020 won’t be available for a while to detail who exactly those domestic buyers of 0.6% yielding 10 year and 1.2% yielding 30 year bonds were))
While the Federal Reserve has decreed the Federal Funds rate to be zero and undertaken QE to distort rates, Congress has understood this zero interest rate policy to mean “free” money since the interest rates are so low. The Federal Reserve’s actions have destroyed Congress’ primary role of compromise, striking a balance between spending and taxation. For those that wonder why “fiscal conservatism” died, it was the Federal Reserve that killed it.
Ok, let’s focus on the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed is presently slamming on the brakes on it’s QE Corona-virus operation, from a peak purchase of $585 billion weekly to “just” $68 billion this week. And the Fed is communicating they will continue to slow their purchasing. Chart below shows the Fed balance sheet (red line) and weekly change (black columns) since 2008. I assume the Fed will continue tapering their purchases through year end 2020, ending the year with a balance sheet of something like $8.3 trillion (adding about $4.5 trillion since QT ended in September 2019, or a 220% increase of it’s balance sheet in 15 months time).
The Fed truly distorted the interest rates of Treasuries with it’s massive purchases in such a short period. Given the duration and laddering of bonds, only a relatively small percentage is available at any certain time so the size and suddenness of the Fed purchases overwhelmed the Treasury market.
T-Bills
During QE Corona-Virus, the Fed has thus far purchased $587 billion in T-Bills…in fact even this week, the Fed did most of its ongoing buying here, adding an additional $33 billion in T-Bills (effectively further steeping the curve between short and long duration rates).
The nearly $600 billion in freshly conjured demand collapsed the short end of the curve (3 month T-Bill shown below) to zero. But despite the enormous Fed purchasing, the natural rate is likely significantly higher than 0.2%…and without ongoing Fed subjugation, rates will continue to rise.
Notes (1yr-5yr Duration)
From the completion of QT to present, the Fed has purchased $750 billion in shorter duration Notes…but the buying has ceased, as the holdings have stalled for nearly a month now.
Again, the Fed has distorted the free market setting of rates with it’s conjured money but rates are turning upward and as the supply of new and rollover Notes continues, the absence of demand typically results in rising rates.
Notes (5yr to 10yr Duration)
Below, longer duration Fed held Notes. The $470 billion rise in Fed holdings since the end of QT is hard to miss…but equally important is the decelerating purchasing of more debt and the Fed signaling it will only continue at low levels of purchasing.
Since the overwhelming flood of Fed purchasing has subsided, the all important 10 year Treasury rate is suddenly rising…like an inflatable held down underwater. The Fed has temporarily distorted the free market rates of Notes with it’s conjured money. However, rates are turning upward and as the supply of new and rollover Notes continues, the absence of demand typically results in rising rates…as we are now seeing. The impact of a fast rising 10 year (the foundation of the 30 year mortgage rate) would rapidly push mortgage rates on primary and commercial real estate to significantly higher levels…and crush a housing led “v-shaped” recovery meme?!?
Bonds
The Fed purchased $312 billion of Treasury Bonds since QT was abandoned. Given the much smaller quantity outstanding of long bonds, this represented more than 10% of all marketable long bonds in just a few months time, increasing the Fed’s total long bond holdings to nearly 35% of marketable.
The Fed’s action of plunging the 30 year rate to nearly 1% was a deformation of incredible proportion…but just as incredible would be the rate counter reaction upward absent the Fed’s ongoing bid.
Excess Reserves vs. Monetization
Is the Fed about to back off and let the “free-market” determine Treasury interest rates? Not likely, the Fed no longer (if ever) believes in free market price discovery. So, best to check the Fed’s balance sheet split between the portion held in large banks as excess reserves and the portion moving directly into the economy/financial system (monetization). When the Fed began QE, Ben Bernanke then stated the Fed would not monetize the debt and that the Fed conjured dollars would be held essentially inert as excess reserves…and then subsequently be removed via quantitative tightening. This was a bald faced lie then and is even more laughable now. During the initial stages of QE, about 2/3rds of the Federal Reserve newly created dollars were held as excess reserves (+$2.7 T) while (+$1.2 T) moved into the financial system.
And the impact of monetization on asset prices (showing Wilshire 5000, representing all publicly held US equities).
Focusing on monetization since QE ended in late 2014 through the present…a strong correlation should be noted between the rising quantity of monetization (post QE) and asset valuations.
During the last cycle (post QE) the Fed raised IOER’s alongside the FFR%, essentially paying banks not to loan money, paying them for taking no risk. This time, the Fed is offering essentially no payment on the excess reserves, encouraging banks to employ those reserves…and that is exactly what I anticipate we will see. The chart below details the IOER’s (interest paid on excess reserves, held at the largest of banks) versus the excess reserves and monetization. The Fed continuing QE alongside declining excess reserves, will push the quantity of monetization into orbit.
If the excess reserves decline and the correlations hold (both as expected)…all those freshly conjured dollars will be in frantic search for a leveraged home via loans and/or asset purchase…and look out as assets explode higher on a wave of “legal” counterfeit Fed cash. Perhaps there will be some sort of quid pro quo, by which the largest banks maintain the Treasury bid while simultaneously leveraging up…or perhaps the Fed will double down it’s Treasury purchasing, otherwise rates will soar alongside equities?
And just so we are clear, this surge in asset prices will benefit a small minority of Americans and actively harm the vast majority via costs of living surging versus significant unemployment and flat wages. Wonder how that will go over as 2020 is likely to only get a whole lot more “interesting”!?!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--CEOs Bank Big Bonuses As Oil Companies Go Bankrupt

When public oil and gas companies are doing relatively well , many are happy to adopt a pay-for-performance model to reward CEOs and executives .
However , the tables are quickly turned when things go to the dogs .
When these companies go bankrupt , the misery is shared by employees who lose their jobs ; retirees see their benefits and pensions go up in smoke , while shareholders and bondholders get wiped out .
In sharp contrast , it ’ s very common for blue-chip executives who have run their companies to the ground to receive multi-million dollar golden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil and gas companies going through Chapter 11 frequently receive very fat payouts in the form of cash bonuses , stock grants , and other benefits that often exceed payments during the good times .
It ’ s not any different this time around .
At a time when hundreds of thousands of employees in the U.S. shale industry have lost their jobs , Bloomberg has reported that some 35 executives at Whiting Petroleum Inc. ( NYSE : WLL ) , Chesapeake Energy Corp. ( NYSE : CHK ) and Diamond Offshore Drilling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set to receive nearly $ 50 million after their companies declared bankruptcy or are on the verge of doing so .
It ’ s the manner in which these head honchos continue to award themselves fat bonuses despite federal legislation to crack down on the practice that really grates .
The board at Whiting , an oil and gas producer that filed for Chapter 11 in April , approved a $ 6.4M bonus for CEO Brad Holly just days before the company went under , exceeding his previous annual compensation package by nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California Resources Corp. ( NYSE : CRC ) warned investors about “ …a substantial doubt about the company ’ s ability to continue as a going concern… ” but still went ahead and guaranteed company executives their 2020 bonuses .
So , what ’ s the justification for this egregious , bizarre , and perverse practice ?
According to Kelly Mitchell , an analyst at corporate watchdog group Documented , companies do it so as to incentivize these executives to stick around because they understand the company better and , ostensibly , have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Never mind the fact that their decisions are very often to blame for the company ’ s sad situation in the first place .
They also do it in a bid to cut costs and maximize value for creditors using tools such as tax credits or untapped resources .
You could argue that this practice is not unique to the energy industry and is , in fact , common in corporate America–and you would be right .
Last year , former Equifax CEO Richard Smith , walked away with a very generous ~ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 24-million pension and $ 50,000 in tax and financial planning services after the credit agency suffered one of the worst data breaches in the history of the U.S. Interestingly , none of Smith ’ s compensation was docked under the company ’ s clawback provision meant to hold top executives accountable for their actions or inactions , which was negligence in this case .
In 2014 , American retailing giant , Target Corp. , paid ex-CEO Steinhafel more than $ 30 million after he handed in his resignation following another massive hacking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal records stolen .
You can also rationalize that energy executives are not individually responsible for the oil price collapse that has adversely impacted their companies ( though they share collective responsibility for the overproduction that triggered the collapse ) .
But whichever way you slice it , it ’ s clear that oil and gas companies go too far with their bonus payments to executives .
Over the past decade , the leaders of 15 large E & P companies collected more than US $ 2 billion in aggregate compensation despite their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared to a 150 % gain by the S & P 500 Index over the timeframe .
It ’ s hard to justify the hefty rewards being awarded to executives of fallen energy companies .
In the case of Equifax and Target , their respective stocks did suffer big selloffs after the hacks but quickly recovered and have actually outperformed their peers by quite a wide margin since the events .
In contrast , WLL shares are down 89 % in the year-to-date ; CRC has lost 83.5 % , CHK has returned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % YTD , much worse compared to the sector benchmark , XLE , which is down a more modest 30.5 % YTD .
Bloomberg has reported that energy companies use their peers , not the broad market , as the benchmark , and executives of companies that perform less badly than others tend to be rewarded–bankruptcy is the ultimate underperformance , meaning these guys should not be getting such huge bonuses .
Energy companies need to have some level of accountability for their executives when things go awry .
They have a willing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hughes , judges tend to sign off on these fat payouts more often than not despite laws introduced in 2005 to limit their size .

By Alex Kimani
When public oil and gas companies are doing relatively well, many are happy to adopt a pay-for-performance model to reward CEOs and executives. However, the tables are quickly turned when things go to the dogs. When these companies go bankrupt, the misery is shared by employees who lose their jobs; retirees see their benefits and pensions go up in smoke, while shareholders and bondholders get wiped out. In sharp contrast, it’s very common for blue-chip executives who have run their companies to the ground to receive multi-million dollar golden sendoffs. Indeed, top executives of oil and gas companies going through Chapter 11 frequently receive very fat payouts in the form of cash bonuses, stock grants, and other benefits that often exceed payments during the good times.
It’s not any different this time around.
At a time when hundreds of thousands of employees in the U.S. shale industry have lost their jobs, Bloomberg has reported that some 35 executives at Whiting Petroleum Inc.(NYSE:WLL), Chesapeake Energy Corp.(NYSE:CHK) and Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.(OTCMKTS: DOFSQ) are set to receive nearly $50 million after their companies declared bankruptcy or are on the verge of doing so.
Rewarding Failure
It’s the manner in which these head honchos continue to award themselves fat bonuses despite federal legislation to crack down on the practice that really grates.
The board at Whiting, an oil and gas producer that filed for Chapter 11 in April, approved a $6.4M bonus for CEO Brad Holly just days before the company went under, exceeding his previous annual compensation package by nearly a million dollars.
In May, California Resources Corp. (NYSE:CRC) warned investors about “…a substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern…” but still went ahead and guaranteed company executives their 2020 bonuses.
So, what’s the justification for this egregious, bizarre, and perverse practice?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
According to Kelly Mitchell, an analyst at corporate watchdog group Documented, companies do it so as to incentivize these executives to stick around because they understand the company better and, ostensibly, have better odds of pulling them through. Never mind the fact that their decisions are very often to blame for the company’s sad situation in the first place. They also do it in a bid to cut costs and maximize value for creditors using tools such as tax credits or untapped resources.
No Accountability
You could argue that this practice is not unique to the energy industry and is, in fact, common in corporate America–and you would be right.
Last year, former Equifax CEO Richard Smith, walked away with a very generous ~$19.6 million in stock bonuses, $24-million pension and $50,000 in tax and financial planning services after the credit agency suffered one of the worst data breaches in the history of the U.S. Interestingly, none of Smith’s compensation was docked under the company’s clawback provision meant to hold top executives accountable for their actions or inactions, which was negligence in this case.
In 2014, American retailing giant, Target Corp., paid ex-CEO Steinhafel more than $30 million after he handed in his resignation following another massive hacking attack that saw millions of customers’ personal records stolen.
You can also rationalize that energy executives are not individually responsible for the oil price collapse that has adversely impacted their companies (though they share collective responsibility for the overproduction that triggered the collapse).
But whichever way you slice it, it’s clear that oil and gas companies go too far with their bonus payments to executives. Over the past decade, the leaders of 15 large E&P companies collected more than US$2 billion in aggregate compensation despite their companies posting total returns of -15% compared to a 150% gain by the S&P 500 Index over the timeframe.
It’s hard to justify the hefty rewards being awarded to executives of fallen energy companies. In the case of Equifax and Target, their respective stocks did suffer big selloffs after the hacks but quickly recovered and have actually outperformed their peers by quite a wide margin since the events. In contrast, WLL shares are down 89% in the year-to-date; CRC has lost 83.5%, CHK has returned -91.5% while DOFSQ is down 95% YTD, much worse compared to the sector benchmark, XLE, which is down a more modest 30.5% YTD. Bloomberg has reported that energy companies use their peers, not the broad market, as the benchmark, and executives of companies that perform less badly than others tend to be rewarded–bankruptcy is the ultimate underperformance, meaning these guys should not be getting such huge bonuses.
Energy companies need to have some level of accountability for their executives when things go awry. They have a willing accomplice, though. According to Patrick Hughes, judges tend to sign off on these fat payouts more often than not despite laws introduced in 2005 to limit their size.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Still don’t know whos the real enemy? The years after the ’08 crash, the richest 1% took 85% of inco

Still don’t know whos the real enemy? The years after the ’08 crash, the richest 1% took 85% of income gains.  In this crisis the stock market’s down only 1%. Billionaire wealth is booming.

The Fed Just Unleashed A Trillion In New Debt : Companies Took The Money And Spent It On Dividends While @ @ @

The Fed Just Unleashed A Trillion In New Debt: Companies Took The Money And Spent It On Dividends While Firing Millions t.co/3UZM7veY7A
— FreeZerohedge (@freezerohedge) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Jamie Dimon’s bank was fined:

Jamie Dimon’s bank was fined:

$ 13B for mortgage fraud $ 614M for predatory lending practices $ 55M+ for discrimination $ 31M for illegally foreclosing @ @ @ @ @ a $ 416B bailout that allowed him to become a billionaire

$13B for mortgage fraud
$614M for predatory lending practices
$55M+ for discrimination
$31M for illegally foreclosing on military families
While getting a $416B bailout that allowed him to become a billionaire
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He’s America’s most dangerous looter
Jamie Dimon's bank was fined: $13B for mortgage fraud
$614M for predatory lending practices
$55M+ for discrimination
$31M for illegally foreclosing on military families While getting a $416B bailout that allowed him to become a billionaire He's America's most dangerous looter t.co/W42wAe7Prg — Warren Gunnels (@GunnelsWarren) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Democrat mayor thinks taxpayers should pay for his negligence

He ’ s only asking for 55 million .
60 million isn ’ t that much to rebuild an entire city .
70 million is such a tiny fraction of the federal budget it won ’ t even be noticed .
In fact 100 million is only 30 cents from every American .
Surely you can spare some change to get 200 million for Minneapolis .
Even children can afford to give a dollar so Minneapolis can have 300 million .
Minneapolis Mayor Frey Begs For Bailout After Allowing Rioters To Burn & Loot City For Days Minneapolis Mayor Jacob @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal assistance to rebuild the city after he had enabled rioters to sack hundreds of businesses unimpeded for days .
Frey had ordered the police to abandon the 3rd precinct station , allowing rioters to burn the facility , as well as refusing to call in the National Guard after the protests devolved into violent bedlam following the death of George Floyd .
“ We will do everything we can as we shift to recovery mode , ” Frey told The Star Tribune earlier this week .
“ We ’ re recovering from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , from COVID-19 to the police killing and then the looting which took place afterward.
” The city estimated that the riots inflicted a minimum of $ 55 million worth of damage , destroying over 220 buildings .

by Venus230
He’s only asking for 55 million.
60 million isn’t that much to rebuild an entire city.
70 million is such a tiny fraction of the federal budget it won’t even be noticed.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In fact 100 million is only 30 cents from every American.
Surely you can spare some change to get 200 million for Minneapolis.
Even children can afford to give a dollar so Minneapolis can have 300 million.
Minneapolis Mayor Frey Begs For Bailout After Allowing Rioters To Burn & Loot City For Days
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) is asking for federal assistance to rebuild the city after he had enabled rioters to sack hundreds of businesses unimpeded for days. Frey had ordered the police to abandon the 3rd precinct station, allowing rioters to burn the facility, as well as refusing to call in the National Guard after the protests devolved into violent bedlam following the death of George Floyd. “We will do everything we can as we shift to recovery mode,” Frey told The Star Tribune earlier this week. “We’re recovering from crises sandwiched on top of each other, from COVID-19 to the police killing and then the looting which took place afterward.” The city estimated that the riots inflicted a minimum of $55 million worth of damage, destroying over 220 buildings.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--130,400 NEW COVID-19 cases confirmed on June 3 is an unprecedented surge.  US epidemic not even slow

CNN : “ Over 1,000 coronavirus deaths reported in the past 24 hours .
Officials fear protests will drive up @ @ @ @ @ Over 1,000 coronavirus deaths reported in the past 24 hours .
Officials fear protests will @ @ @ @ @ fear those numbers will rise following the protests , and are urging those taking part @ @ @ @ @ Based on the way the disease spreads , there is every reason to expect that @ @ @ @ @ and potentially new outbreaks moving forward , ” US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams warned @ @ @

130,400 NEW COVID-19 cases confirmed on June 3 is an unprecedented surge.
US epidemic not even slowing.
Main surge is now in Lat Am and these are the closest neighbors of US!
Asia is really accelerating too (mainly India). t.co/XOKFI1YYVb pic.twitter.com/wsXMkuOIPD — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) June 6, 2020
CNN: “Over 1,000 coronavirus deaths reported in the past 24 hours. Officials fear protests will drive up numbers”
CNN: “Over 1,000 coronavirus deaths reported in the past 24
hours. Officials fear protests will drive up numbers”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Officials fear those numbers will rise following the
protests, and are urging those taking part to get tested.
“Based on the way the disease spreads, there is every reason
to expect that we will see new clusters and potentially new
outbreaks moving forward,” US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome
Adams warned this week.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--CRYBULLY MOB COLLECTS SCALP:

CRYBULLY MOB COLLECTS SCALP:

Stan Wischnowski to resign as The Philadelphia Inquirer ’ s top editor .
Wischnowski , 58 , led the paper over two turbulent periods in recent years , driving it , its sister paper , the Daily News and its website , Inquirer.com , to reshape themselves as the digital age transformed the news business .
He was also key in the creation of Spotlight PA , a new multi-reporter team to provide news outlets across Pennsylvania with investigative coverage of state government .
He also was in charge in 2012 when the Inquirer won the Pulitzer Prize for Public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within Philadelphia schools .
It was the placement of an insensitive headline over Inga Saffron ’ s column in the Tuesday newspaper that may have set the stage for Wischnowski ’ s departure .
He joined the two other top editors in signing an apology to readers and staff , characterizing the headline , “ Buildings Matter , Too ” as “ deeply offensive ” and apologizing for it .
The column had explored the destruction of buildings amid the looting that accompanied some of the nationwide protest over police violence .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other editors had scheduled a staff-wide Zoom meeting to discuss race at the Inquirer and the pressures in particular faced by journalists of color .
Wischnowski , low-key and measured , as is his personality , told staffers on Wednesday that the paper had made strides in diversifying its 213-member newsroom , boosting minority representation to 27 percent of the editorial workforce , about a doubling in four years .
He promised more such hires .
The session turned intense and emotional .
Some journalists could be seen in tears in their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white , denounced the pace of change at the paper , sharply criticizing both coverage and the racial and gender mix of the staff .
Several journalists pointed out that the newspaper could muster only one male African American reporter to cover the protests and police response convulsing a city that is majority minority .
Hours after the wrenching Zoom session , about 50 journalists of color signed an open letter calling for faster changes at the paper .
The following day , most of the minority staff took the day off from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when new , hedge-fund owners acquired the Inquirer , he became the paper ’ s fifth editor in 10 years , replacing Bill Marimow .
It was during that period when the paper ’ s Assault on Learning series was published .
“ The future of any great American city depends on providing a safe environment in which young people can learn , ” he told a reporter for a profile for his old hometown paper , in Illinois .
“ Our series exposed in graphic and painstaking detail the ways in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Stan Wischnowski to resign as The Philadelphia Inquirer’s top editor.
Wischnowski, 58, led the paper over two turbulent periods in recent years, driving it, its sister paper, the Daily News and its website, Inquirer.com, to reshape themselves as the digital age transformed the news business. He was also key in the creation of Spotlight PA, a new multi-reporter team to provide news outlets across Pennsylvania with investigative coverage of state government. He also was in charge in 2012 when the Inquirer won the Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for an in-depth investigation into violence within Philadelphia schools.
* * * * * * * *
It was the placement of an insensitive headline over Inga Saffron’s column in the Tuesday newspaper that may have set the stage for Wischnowski’s departure. He joined the two other top editors in signing an apology to readers and staff, characterizing the headline, “Buildings Matter, Too” as “deeply offensive” and apologizing for it. The column had explored the destruction of buildings amid the looting that accompanied some of the nationwide protest over police violence.
Even before the headline was published, Wischnowski and other editors had scheduled a staff-wide Zoom meeting to discuss race at the Inquirer and the pressures in particular faced by journalists of color.
Wischnowski, low-key and measured, as is his personality, told staffers on Wednesday that the paper had made strides in diversifying its 213-member newsroom, boosting minority representation to 27 percent of the editorial workforce, about a doubling in four years. He promised more such hires.
The session turned intense and emotional. Some journalists could be seen in tears in their Zoom frames. Critics, black and white, denounced the pace of change at the paper, sharply criticizing both coverage and the racial and gender mix of the staff. Several journalists pointed out that the newspaper could muster only one male African American reporter to cover the protests and police response convulsing a city that is majority minority.
Hours after the wrenching Zoom session, about 50 journalists of color signed an open letter calling for faster changes at the paper. The following day, most of the minority staff took the day off from work in protest.
* * * * * * * *
In 2010, when new, hedge-fund owners acquired the Inquirer, he became the paper’s fifth editor in 10 years, replacing Bill Marimow.
It was during that period when the paper’s Assault on Learning series was published.
“The future of any great American city depends on providing a safe environment in which young people can learn,” he told a reporter for a profile for his old hometown paper, in Illinois. “Our series exposed in graphic and painstaking detail the ways in which we are failing this generation.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--DC mayor does not have the power to send away National Guard: Attorney

Kevin Carroll , partner at Wiggin and Dana and Army Veteran , weighs in on National Guard use .
# @

Kevin Carroll, partner at Wiggin and Dana and Army Veteran, weighs in on National Guard use. #FoxNews
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--ANTIFA has arrived in DC screaming ‘F*CK TRUMP!’ In NYC BLM is blaming the Dems for their current si

ANTIFA has arrived in DC screaming ‘F*CK TRUMP!’ In NYC BLM is blaming the Dems for their current situation…

FWIW , the man who on live TV issued the threat to burn down the Diamond District in NYC tonight @ @ @ @ @ identified himself as `` Ace Burns 2020 . ''
t.co/y2cORXB1LS That is straight up terrorism @ @ @ @ @ .
Today , The New York Times ran an op-ed telling people to withhold affection @ @ @ @ @ protest or give money to anti-racism organizations .
Where does this end ?
I want @ @ @ @ @ utterly disdain any person or institution endorsing such tactics .
pic.twitter.com/vVTnKq75mo

Which protest will CNN cover?
FWIW, the man who on live TV issued the threat to burn down the Diamond District in NYC tonight unless his demands were met identified himself as "Ace Burns 2020." t.co/y2cORXB1LS
That is straight up terrorism.
He should be arrested.
Today, The New York Times ran an op-ed telling people to withhold affection from their relatives unless they protest or give money to anti-racism organizations.
Where does this end? I want racial equality, but I utterly disdain any person or institution endorsing such tactics. pic.twitter.com/vVTnKq75mo
— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--This just in from the Government of the United States… The right to peaceably assemble is permissibl

This just in from the Government of the United States… The right to peaceably assemble is permissible based entirely on your political views…

How ridiculous .
Medical experts are supposed to be smart but they completely contradict themselves with this .
It makes absolutely no sense at all .
WELL , YES : Public Health Experts Have Undermined Their Own Case for the COVID-19 Lockdowns : Police violence is a metaphorical disease .
Coronavirus is a literal disease .
Many people all over the country were prevented from properly mourning lost loved ones because policymakers and health officials limited public funerals to just 10 people .
For months , public health officials urged people to stay inside and avoid gathering in large groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American businesses , discouraged non-essential travel , and demanded that we resist the basic human instinct to seek out companionship , all because COVID-19 could hurt us even if we were being careful , even if we were going to a funeral rather than a nightclub .
All of us were asked to suffer a great deal of second-order misery for the greater good , and many of us complied with these orders because we were told that failing to slow the spread of COVID-19 would be far worse than whatever economic impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bringing life to a complete standstill .
.
.
.
People who failed to follow social distancing orders have faced harsh criticism and even formal sanction for violating these public health guidelines .
To take just one extreme example , New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio threatened to use law enforcement to break up a Jewish funeral .
After saying no to so many things , a significant number of public health experts have determined that massive protests of police brutality are an exception to the rules of COVID-19 mitigation .
Yes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yes , these experts have encouraged protesters to wear masks and observe six feet of social distance .
But if you watch actual footage of protests—even the ones where cops are behaving badly themselves—you will see crowds that are larger and more densely packed than the public beaches and parks that many mayors and governors have heavily restricted .
Every signatory to the letter above may not have called for those restrictions , but they also didn ’ t take to a public forum to declare them relatively safe under certain conditions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have spent weeks advising policymakers and the public on how to reduce their risk of getting or inadvertently spreading the coronavirus , the mass demonstrations have forced a shift in perspective , ” The New York Times tells us .
But they could have easily kept the same perspective : Going out is dangerous , here ’ s how to best protect yourself .
The added well , this cause is important , though , makes the previous guidance look rather suspect .
Well , yes .
It suggests that they weigh politics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is — ahead of public health .
And it suggests that because they do .
RICHARD FERNANDEZ : The Collapse of Social Distancing and Establishment Authority .
While you were told getting a haircut could kill tons of people , health officials are not concerned about covid spread in big protests .
We were told for months not to be in large groups .
Yet , apparently , it was okay all along as long as you were protesting .
But not any protests , as protesting the covid lockdowns were genocidal @

by YourDaddyKnowsBest
This just in from the Government of the United States The right to peaceably assemble is permissible based entirely on your political views. This is banana republic shit now. t.co/d1nNJqarJG — James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) June 6, 2020
How ridiculous. Medical experts are supposed to be smart but they completely contradict themselves with this. It makes absolutely no sense at all.
I'm sick of Democrats with their #impeachment and their #pandemic and their #climatechange and their #racism. Remember how if we didn't impeach Trump immediately, he would DESTROY AMERICA? Same bullsh*t, different day. No positive ideas – only negative. Never build, only burn. — Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) June 6, 2020
WELL, YES: Public Health Experts Have Undermined Their Own Case for the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Police violence is a metaphorical disease. Coronavirus is a literal disease.
Many people all over the country were prevented from properly mourning lost loved ones because policymakers and health officials limited public funerals to just 10 people. For months, public health officials urged people to stay inside and avoid gathering in large groups; at their behest, governments closed American businesses, discouraged non-essential travel, and demanded that we resist the basic human instinct to seek out companionship, all because COVID-19 could hurt us even if we were being careful, even if we were going to a funeral rather than a nightclub. All of us were asked to suffer a great deal of second-order misery for the greater good, and many of us complied with these orders because we were told that failing to slow the spread of COVID-19 would be far worse than whatever economic impact we would suffer as a result of bringing life to a complete standstill. . . . People who failed to follow social distancing orders have faced harsh criticism and even formal sanction for violating these public health guidelines. To take just one extreme example, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio threatened to use law enforcement to break up a Jewish funeral. After saying no to so many things, a significant number of public health experts have determined that massive protests of police brutality are an exception to the rules of COVID-19 mitigation. Yes, these protests are outdoors, and yes, these experts have encouraged protesters to wear masks and observe six feet of social distance. But if you watch actual footage of protests—even the ones where cops are behaving badly themselves—you will see crowds that are larger and more densely packed than the public beaches and parks that many mayors and governors have heavily restricted. Every signatory to the letter above may not have called for those restrictions, but they also didn’t take to a public forum to declare them relatively safe under certain conditions. “For many public health experts who have spent weeks advising policymakers and the public on how to reduce their risk of getting or inadvertently spreading the coronavirus, the mass demonstrations have forced a shift in perspective,” The New York Times tells us. But they could have easily kept the same perspective: Going out is dangerous, here’s how to best protect yourself. The added well, this cause is important, though, makes the previous guidance look rather suspect.
Well, yes. It suggests that they weigh politics — the right sort of politics, that is — ahead of public health. And it suggests that because they do.
RICHARD FERNANDEZ: The Collapse of Social Distancing and Establishment Authority.
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While you were told getting a haircut could kill tons of people, health officials are not concerned about covid spread in big protests.
We were told for months not to be in large groups. Yet, apparently, it was okay all along as long as you were protesting. But not any protests, as protesting the covid lockdowns were genocidal.
Link to the article:
whdh.com/news/over-1000-health-professionals-sign-a-letter-saying-dont-shut-down-protests-using-coronavirus-concerns-as-an-excuse/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Downtown Baltimore City now boarded up. Businesses desperately try to appease the mob by painting BL

Downtown Baltimore City now boarded up. Businesses desperately try to appease the mob by painting BLM on their boards to avoid being looted.

Probably safest to just leave it like that , given the way Baltimore is trending .
Barr debunked this boogaloo @ @ @ @ @ [ 6:45-9:30 ] “ disinformation…people posing…dig a little deeper to determine exactly what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Google Trends showing that Black Lives Matter completely vanishes between presidential elections – because it @ @ @ @ @ .
This is how the DNC is “ solving ” the problem of voter enthusiasm @ @ @ @ @ guilt money Remember when they said “ Antifa/BLM isn ’ t violent , they haven @ @ @ @ @

by GuacBowls
Probably safest to just leave it like that, given the way Baltimore is trending.
Stay Alive. Stay out of Democrat Cities.
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Barr debunked this boogaloo group crap on Thursday: [6:45-9:30] “disinformation…people posing…dig a little deeper to determine exactly what’s going on.”
NBD just Google Trends showing that Black Lives Matter completely vanishes between presidential elections – because it’s A FUNDRAISING SCAM. This is how the DNC is “solving” the problem of voter enthusiasm: scam them outta their guilt money
Remember when they said “Antifa/BLM isn’t violent, they haven’t killed anyone”


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Black Lives Matter will have armed officers; wants police defunded nationwide

Enough is enough .
Our pain , our cries , and our need to be seen and heard resonate throughout this entire country .
We demand acknowledgment and accountability for the devaluation and dehumanization of Black life at the hands of the police .
We call for radical , sustainable solutions that affirm the prosperity of Black lives .
George Floyd ’ s violent death was a breaking point — an all too familiar reminder that , for Black people , law enforcement doesn ’ t protect or save our lives .
They often threaten and take them .
Right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country are on fire , and our people are hurting — the violence against Black bodies felt in the ongoing mass disobedience , all while we grapple with a pandemic that is disproportionately affecting , infecting , and killing us .
We call for an end to the systemic racism that allows this culture of corruption to go unchecked and our lives to be taken .
We call for a national defunding of police .
We demand investment in our communities and the resources to ensure Black people not only survive , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us , add your name to the petition right now and help us spread the word .

by Dr. Eowyn
On ABC’s Nightline on June 1, 2020, Black Lives Matter (BLM) cofounder Patrisse Cullors, who is also a TV writer, claims that “police terror” against “black communities” had gotten worse after Trump became President, and that Trump told police to hurt people. She said:
“We’ve seen a ratcheting up of pushing law enforcement to be more brutal, use excessive force. He has told law enforcement, in his own words to hurt people… And what we know are those people are mostly black people.”
Cullors says BLM is calling for the defunding of police nationwide:
“Many people don’t understand that the foundation of policing is actually in slave patrolling. The first law enforcement agencies were out to catch black people who were leaving — fleeing from slavery. We want to reduce law enforcement in our communities. The more contact we have with law enforcement, the more death is going to happen with black people.”
This is the statement on the Black Lives Matter website (the website supplied the bold emphasis):
#DefundThePolice Enough is enough. Our pain, our cries, and our need to be seen and heard resonate throughout this entire country. We demand acknowledgment and accountability for the devaluation and dehumanization of Black life at the hands of the police. We call for radical, sustainable solutions that affirm the prosperity of Black lives. George Floyd’s violent death was a breaking point — an all too familiar reminder that, for Black people, law enforcement doesn’t protect or save our lives. They often threaten and take them. Right now, Minneapolis and cities across our country are on fire, and our people are hurting — the violence against Black bodies felt in the ongoing mass disobedience, all while we grapple with a pandemic that is disproportionately affecting, infecting, and killing us. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! We call for an end to the systemic racism that allows this culture of corruption to go unchecked and our lives to be taken. We call for a national defunding of police. We demand investment in our communities and the resources to ensure Black people not only survive, but thrive. If you’re with us, add your name to the petition right now and help us spread the word.
Not only is Black Lives Matter calling for police to be defunded, nationwide, BLM New York chapter Chairman Hawk Newsome told the Daily Mail that BLM plans to follow in the footsteps of the Black Panthers Party by developing an armed branch of “peace officers” to “combat” police brutality in black communities. Newsome said:
“We’re talking about self-defense. We’re talking about defending our communities…. We have black Special Forces officers advising us, and we will teach and train people in our communities, the Black Opts department of Black Opportunities.”
The Black Panthers Party in the 1960s created “peace officers” who open-carried firearms while patrolling black communities in order to deter police brutality. Newsome said that the BLM “peace officers” would also be armed and open carry guns in states that allow it.
Back to BLM cofounder Patrisse Cullors.
Like Meryl Streep, John Kerry, Anita Dunn, Nancy Pelosi and John McCain, Cullors also has the unsettling habit of sticking her tongue out like a snake when she speaks. In Cullors’ case, she doesn’t just flick her tongue, she sticks out and rolls her tongue from one side of her mouth to the other.
In the video below, her snake tongue makes its appearance after the 0:24 mark.
Note that exorcists have observed that those who are demon-possessed can take on the look of a reptile or snake. Below are FOTM’s other posts on snake-tongue flickers:
~Eowyn


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--The Cracks in the Financial System Are Getting Bigger…. Here’s What It Could Mean for Gold

Doug Casey ’ s Note : In the over 30 years I ’ ve known him , my respect—and liking—for Frank Giustra has only grown .
Not just because he ’ s a world-class businessman , having built Yorkton Securities into a powerhouse , and then founding Lionsgate Entertainment .
More relevant to this interview , he ’ s a first-rate judge of the markets—one of the best I ’ ve ever met at seeing turning points and understanding trends .
He ’ s one of the few financiers in the “ Master of the Universe ” class that understands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ s talking about .
I suggest you read this closely .
International Man : Last time around , the Fed was able to paper over the crisis and create a ten-year bull market in stocks .
Is the Fed out of ammo this time ?
Frank Giustra : They are , but that won ’ t stop them , and they ’ ll call it something else—helicopter money or Modern Monetary Theory ( MMT ) .
In the last cycle , it was QE .
It wasn ’ t printing money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better .
It was much more calming and elegant to call it that .
It almost rolled off your tongue .
They will never call it money printing .
The new and popular handle is Modern Monetary Theory .
But it ’ s the same old Ponzi scheme .
It ’ s still plain old money printing .
MMT is designed to create demand through money printing , with the idea that you can tax that later as you reach full capacity .
But it makes some very naive assumptions about the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the money printing will leave you on the same path as previous disaster stories .
Math is math .
It ’ s impervious to bullshit .
If you ’ re printing too much money , it ’ s going to influence inflation .
We ’ ve already seen it with asset inflation over the last ten years .
Inflation didn ’ t go into the CPI but went into various asset classes instead .
As you know , Doug Casey has been writing about this topic for 40 years .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s become a fascination for me .
Let ’ s look at how things evolved .
It all started with Alan Greenspan .
He was the one who ushered in the era of pleasing markets with free money or easy money .
He was the first to bail out markets at every crisis and the markets cheered him on .
Greenspan was the one that set the stage for the 2008 crisis .
Ben Bernanke set the stage for what we ’ re facing now .
All they ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And to a great extent , the markets still believe the Fed can continue to fix the mess they created .
I am absolutely stunned gold is still trading at these levels .
Don ’ t people realize where we are heading ?
International Man : Do you think negative nominal interest rates are coming to the U.S. ?
If so , what do you think the effects will be ?
Frank Giustra : So far , the Fed has been very reluctant to talk about introducing negative rates .
As hopeless as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what that would mean if the U.S. went into negative rate territory .
But Trump is a bully .
If he sees the economy still floundering between now and November , he ’ s going to push and bully .
He will likely get his way because the Fed is not truly independent .
That idea went out the window long ago .
It all started with Greenspan .
It was gradual in the beginning , but eventually , it became clear that the separation between church and state was gone .
Fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s one big happy gravy train for the markets .
I believe if the economy does what I think it will do , Trump might get his way .
International Man : Negative interest rates incentivize bad behavior .
Savers will be decimated , and borrowers will be rewarded .
What do you think the effects of that would be ?
Frank Giustra : It ’ s true what you say about the savers .
Unfortunately for them , they are not the ones that influence policy .
Wall Street alone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get screwed in the end and eventually the speculators will also .
They think this party will never end , but they are delusional .
It will end .
Delusion is firmly engrained in the investor psyche .
Wall Street pushes for this continued bad behavior .
They throw a hissy fit when they don ’ t see enough easy credit , and they always seem to get what they want .
International Man : What do you think the role of gold will be as the international monetary system evolves ?
Frank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I don ’ t think we ’ ll ever go back to a a strict gold standard .
That ’ s just not going to happen .
I believe one of two things may happen .
The replacement of the U.S. dollar might end up being some kind of trading unit , a combination of a number of currencies , perhaps with some commodity basket as backing .
Or , we may end up with regional currency units that represent trading blocks .
Perhaps , Asia as one and the West as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say .
However this plays out , it will be messy .
We live in a fractured world .
There is no leadership or common ground .
In this environment , it ’ s hard to see how there will be any consensus to replace the dollar .
But , it will happen somehow , however messy .
I just hope it ’ s peaceful .
International Man : The point you made about trading blocks in interesting .
Countries like China and Russia are buying substantial amounts of gold .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trusted by anybody , do you think that gold will play a role in building trust between countries ?
They are worried about the weaponization of the U.S. dollar .
This concerns not only adversaries like China and Russia , but traditional allies like Europe as well .
Their central banks have been buyers of gold for a very long time .
I think they ’ re buying it because they have to de-dollarize .
They ’ re worried about having too many dollars , especially China .
Gold is the only currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s trusted globally by central banks .
The mere fact that central banks hold it as part of their reserves and that many continue to buy it on a regular basis has to tell you something about its value .
Wall Street has mostly ignored gold in the past as an important component of investment portfolios .
I say , watch what they do not what they say .
Look at central bank behaviour .
International Man : Recently , we ’ ve seen gold break through to multi-year highs .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold bull market , and where do you think it ’ s ultimately going ?
Frank Giustra : I ’ ve never made a prediction on the gold price .
I will always say it ’ s going higher if I believe it ’ s going higher .
I think that this time , it is going a lot higher , and I will say that much .
Where it goes is anybody ’ s guess .
But I ’ ll tell you one thing—and I ’ ve been saying this for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the gold bull market—which started last year—is the third and final wave of the bull market that started in 2001 , and this one ’ s going to be a tsunami .
This time , gold will really break out and go to a number that most investors can ’ t begin to imagine .
The eventual gold price is also a function of how long it will take for high or hyperinflation to kick in and what happens in the period before it does .
Will we see currency wars ?
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And I mean the real stuff when it comes to gold .
Personally , I don ’ t trust gold ETFs When the proverbial poop hits the fan , I believe governments will go to any length to protect their currency .
They won ’ t let you find a place to hide .
They will freeze bank accounts and prevent you from exchanging your dollars into other currencies or gold .
We have seen this many times before in other countries and even in the U.S. ; in 1933 , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold , and that law remained in place for almost 40 years .
And and these type of protective measures will happen again , in some shape or form .
In essence , they will prevent you from trying to protect your savings .
Sounds horrible , but it happens over and over again .
That ’ s why you need to own some physical gold .
Again , I can ’ t tell you exactly how this plays out and how high gold will run .
I don ’ t have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history books .
International Man : How do average people manage their risk in an environment like this ?
Frank Giustra : It ’ s tough .
I think about this question a lot .
Until the dust settles , I ’ d say stick with cash and gold .
Unless it ’ s gold stocks , I ’ m not in the market .
I think the market is still ridiculously overpriced , given what ’ s happening in the real economy .
The only reason the stock market is still overpriced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free money , which allows speculation to continue at a feverish pace .
I just don ’ t see where the earnings are going to come from .
I think that reality is going to set in—probably in the fall or next year .
Cash is always useful to buy things ; invest because there is no way to know when exactly hyperinflation will set in and you need cash to buy things if they get really cheap .
Timing is everything .
I try to keep things simple .
You will never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the probability that things will get very bad is pretty high up on the bell curve .
Buy gold , and keep your powder dry and pray .
Editor ’ s Note : The ripple effects of the government lockdown are only stating to take shape .
That ’ s not to mention the unprecedented amount of money the that is being pumped into every corner of the economy by the Federal Reserve .
That ’ s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey just released an urgent new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ During an Economic Collapse .
It explains what ’ s to come and exactly what you should do to protect yourself .
Click here to get it now .

Via International Man
Doug Casey’s Note: In the over 30 years I’ve known him, my respect—and liking—for Frank Giustra has only grown. Not just because he’s a world-class businessman, having built Yorkton Securities into a powerhouse, and then founding Lionsgate Entertainment. More relevant to this interview, he’s a first-rate judge of the markets—one of the best I’ve ever met at seeing turning points and understanding trends.
He’s one of the few financiers in the “Master of the Universe” class that understands gold and economics. Frank knows what he’s talking about. I suggest you read this closely.
—
International Man: Last time around, the Fed was able to paper over the crisis and create a ten-year bull market in stocks. Is the Fed out of ammo this time?
Frank Giustra: They are, but that won’t stop them, and they’ll call it something else—helicopter money or Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
In the last cycle, it was QE. It wasn’t printing money; it was QE because it sounded better. It was much more calming and elegant to call it that. It almost rolled off your tongue.
They will never call it money printing.
The new and popular handle is Modern Monetary Theory. But it’s the same old Ponzi scheme. It’s still plain old money printing.
MMT is designed to create demand through money printing, with the idea that you can tax that later as you reach full capacity. But it makes some very naive assumptions about the way politicians operate. It would never work, and the money printing will leave you on the same path as previous disaster stories. Math is math. It’s impervious to bullshit.
If you’re printing too much money, it’s going to influence inflation. We’ve already seen it with asset inflation over the last ten years. Inflation didn’t go into the CPI but went into various asset classes instead.
As you know, Doug Casey has been writing about this topic for 40 years. I started writing about it 20 years ago. It’s become a fascination for me.
Let’s look at how things evolved.
It all started with Alan Greenspan. He was the one who ushered in the era of pleasing markets with free money or easy money.
He was the first to bail out markets at every crisis and the markets cheered him on.
Greenspan was the one that set the stage for the 2008 crisis. Ben Bernanke set the stage for what we’re facing now.
All they’ve done is encourage debt and speculation. And to a great extent, the markets still believe the Fed can continue to fix the mess they created.
I am absolutely stunned gold is still trading at these levels. Don’t people realize where we are heading?
International Man: Do you think negative nominal interest rates are coming to the U.S.? If so, what do you think the effects will be?
Frank Giustra: So far, the Fed has been very reluctant to talk about introducing negative rates.
As hopeless as they are, I think they understand what that would mean if the U.S. went into negative rate territory.
But Trump is a bully. If he sees the economy still floundering between now and November, he’s going to push and bully.
He will likely get his way because the Fed is not truly independent. That idea went out the window long ago. It all started with Greenspan. It was gradual in the beginning, but eventually, it became clear that the separation between church and state was gone. Fiscal and monetary policy work in tandem. It’s one big happy gravy train for the markets.
I believe if the economy does what I think it will do, Trump might get his way.
International Man: Negative interest rates incentivize bad behavior. Savers will be decimated, and borrowers will be rewarded.
What do you think the effects of that would be?
Frank Giustra: It’s true what you say about the savers. Unfortunately for them, they are not the ones that influence policy. Wall Street alone has that power.
Savers will certainly get screwed in the end and eventually the speculators will also. They think this party will never end, but they are delusional. It will end.
Delusion is firmly engrained in the investor psyche.
Wall Street pushes for this continued bad behavior. They throw a hissy fit when they don’t see enough easy credit, and they always seem to get what they want.
International Man: What do you think the role of gold will be as the international monetary system evolves?
Frank Giustra: It is tough to say.
I don’t think we’ll ever go back to a a strict gold standard. That’s just not going to happen.
I believe one of two things may happen. The replacement of the U.S. dollar might end up being some kind of trading unit, a combination of a number of currencies, perhaps with some commodity basket as backing.
Or, we may end up with regional currency units that represent trading blocks. Perhaps, Asia as one and the West as another. It’s hard to say.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
However this plays out, it will be messy. We live in a fractured world. There is no leadership or common ground. In this environment, it’s hard to see how there will be any consensus to replace the dollar. But, it will happen somehow, however messy. I just hope it’s peaceful.
International Man: The point you made about trading blocks in interesting.
Countries like China and Russia are buying substantial amounts of gold.
In a world where fiat currencies aren’t trusted by anybody, do you think that gold will play a role in building trust between countries?
Frank Giustra: It’s already playing a role.
They are worried about the weaponization of the U.S. dollar. This concerns not only adversaries like China and Russia, but traditional allies like Europe as well.
Their central banks have been buyers of gold for a very long time. I think they’re buying it because they have to de-dollarize. They’re worried about having too many dollars, especially China.
Gold is the only currency that’s not paper. It’s trusted globally by central banks. The mere fact that central banks hold it as part of their reserves and that many continue to buy it on a regular basis has to tell you something about its value.
Wall Street has mostly ignored gold in the past as an important component of investment portfolios. I say, watch what they do not what they say. Look at central bank behaviour.
Follow the money.
International Man: Recently, we’ve seen gold break through to multi-year highs. What do you think comes next in this gold bull market, and where do you think it’s ultimately going?
Frank Giustra: I’ve never made a prediction on the gold price. I will always say it’s going higher if I believe it’s going higher.
I think that this time, it is going a lot higher, and I will say that much. Where it goes is anybody’s guess.
But I’ll tell you one thing—and I’ve been saying this for the last 12 months.
This phase of the gold bull market—which started last year—is the third and final wave of the bull market that started in 2001, and this one’s going to be a tsunami.
This time, gold will really break out and go to a number that most investors can’t begin to imagine.
The eventual gold price is also a function of how long it will take for high or hyperinflation to kick in and what happens in the period before it does.
Will we see currency wars? A depression? We are entering scary times.
And I mean the real stuff when it comes to gold. Personally, I don’t trust gold ETFs
When the proverbial poop hits the fan, I believe governments will go to any length to protect their currency. They won’t let you find a place to hide. They will freeze bank accounts and prevent you from exchanging your dollars into other currencies or gold.
We have seen this many times before in other countries and even in the U.S.; in 1933, it became illegal for American citizens to own gold, and that law remained in place for almost 40 years. And and these type of protective measures will happen again, in some shape or form.
In essence, they will prevent you from trying to protect your savings. Sounds horrible, but it happens over and over again. That’s why you need to own some physical gold.
Again, I can’t tell you exactly how this plays out and how high gold will run. I don’t have a crystal ball. But I do have history books.
International Man: How do average people manage their risk in an environment like this?
Frank Giustra: It’s tough. I think about this question a lot.
Until the dust settles, I’d say stick with cash and gold.
Unless it’s gold stocks, I’m not in the market. I think the market is still ridiculously overpriced, given what’s happening in the real economy.
The only reason the stock market is still overpriced is because the Fed continues to print free money, which allows speculation to continue at a feverish pace.
I just don’t see where the earnings are going to come from. I think that reality is going to set in—probably in the fall or next year.
Cash is always useful to buy things; invest because there is no way to know when exactly hyperinflation will set in and you need cash to buy things if they get really cheap. Timing is everything.
I try to keep things simple.
You will never outsmart the market in the short term, but the probability that things will get very bad is pretty high up on the bell curve. Buy gold, and keep your powder dry and pray.
(You can find Frank’s writing and insights at frankgiustra.com/.)
Editor’s Note: The ripple effects of the government lockdown are only stating to take shape. That’s not to mention the unprecedented amount of money the that is being pumped into every corner of the economy by the Federal Reserve.
That’s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey just released an urgent new PDF titled Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. It explains what’s to come and exactly what you should do to protect yourself. Click here to get it now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-07--Tim Pool: “I talked to someone I know who was a lifelong Chicago Democrat. They said to me ‘the only

Tim Pool: “I talked to someone I know who was a lifelong Chicago Democrat. They said to me ‘the only way this stops is if . . . “

I talked to someone I know who was a lifelong Chicago Democrat They said to me “ the only way @ @ @ @ @ wins a second term and Republicans take the house ” The sentiment wasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ it may just reflect the suburbs , still it was surprising to me

Tim Pool
@Timcast
I talked to someone I know who was a lifelong Chicago
Democrat
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
They said to me “the only way this stops is if Trump wins a
second term and Republicans take the house”
The sentiment wasn’t unique to just them but it may just
reflect the suburbs, still it was surprising to me
I talked to someone I know who was a lifelong Chicago Democrat They said to me "the only way this stops is if Trump wins a second term and Republicans take the house" The sentiment wasn't unique to just them but it may just reflect the suburbs, still it was surprising to me — Tim Pool (@Timcast) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-08--Latest projections: 1st wave of Covid-19 in the US will not level off before a 2nd wave begins in mi

Latest projections: 1st wave of Covid-19 in the US will not level off before a 2nd wave begins in mid-August

See the spreadsheet for data , sources , and detailed notes .
COVID-19 data and projections are from the IHME @ @ @ @ @ the CDC .
The original data file containing the projections from June 5 can be @ @ @ @ @ ’ t currently see the start of the second wave on the IHME ’ s @ @ @ @ @ plot through Aug 4 .
But their downloadable data file runs through Sep 1 for @ @ @ @ @ hospitalizations , and the last 15-16 days of each contain the start of a new @ @ @ @ @ ’ s subtle and hard to see on these charts but you can see it @ @ @ @ @ charts can be compared to similar ones from April 29 and May 11 .

by GumbyTheGreen1
Sources: IHME, CDC, AMA, NYT
Tools: Google Sheets
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
See the spreadsheet for data, sources, and detailed notes. COVID-19 data and projections are from the IHME. Flu data is from the CDC. The original data file containing the projections from June 5 can be downloaded here.
You can’t currently see the start of the second wave on the IHME’s website since those charts only plot through Aug 4. But their downloadable data file runs through Sep 1 for deaths and Aug 27 for hospitalizations, and the last 15-16 days of each contain the start of a new exponential growth curve. It’s subtle and hard to see on these charts but you can see it in the spreadsheet.
These charts can be compared to similar ones from April 29 and May 11.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-08--Users of the trading app Robinhood have underperformed the market by 4% in the past year on average.

Users of the trading app Robinhood have underperformed the market by 4% in the past year on average. Dashboard tracking what’s currently being bought and sold in the comments.

Here ’ s a link to the dashboard I built tracking what Robinhood users have been buying and selling recently @ @ @ @ @ only includes stock holdings , so unfortunately wild options plays from the likes of WallStreetBets @ @ @ @

by pdwp90
Here’s a link to the dashboard I built tracking what Robinhood users have been buying and selling recently: www.quiverquant.com/sources/robinhood
My data source only includes stock holdings, so unfortunately wild options plays from the likes of WallStreetBets are not included.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Data Source: Robintrack.net
Tools: Python