investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Prepper’s Anxiety: How NOT to Become Paralyzed When You Feel Overwhelmed and Underprepared

Eventually , even some of the most prepared preppers will question themselves and their survival skills .
Fortunately , if we shift the energy to skill development and self-improvement , those negative feelings will subside .
Whenever I offer guidance to someone new to prepping and survivalism , one issue seems to affect neophytes the most : anxiety .
More specifically , prepper ’ s anxiety .
The feelings of urgency , inadequacy , deficiency , insufficiency , and lagging can overwhelm even long-time preppers .
This can be even more true during long-term situations like the one we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t let the anxiety paralyze you and stop you from prepping Sometimes , anxiety can motivate us to advance our preparations .
Questioning ourselves here and there can be positive .
Living in a constant state of anxiety is not .
“ Is it too late ?
Am I doing all I can ?
Are my stockpiles enough , and for how long ?
What if this or that is missing ?
Should I learn X or get another Y thingy or that extra backup giZmo ?
Have I got everything covered ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” I admit to being assaulted by the barrage of questions , despite living in a slow-burning SHTF .
Doubt and insecurity have crept in even though I have been prepping and practicing survivalism for some time .
The three sides of prepping and survivalism As with many things in life , preparation and survivalism have three sides : • None Material ( “ stuff ” : more associated with prepping ) All three of these sides are interconnected .
Each one affects the other .
These sides also affect how we feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a spiritual side , but for this article , I will focus on the above mentioned three .
It is essential to objectively look at ( and understand ) the mechanisms and motivations behind our thoughts , actions , and reactions .
This is especially important when it comes to being prepared for disasters .
I always express the importance of focusing on what is under our control , which is ourselves .
Self-awareness is crucial .
Being conscious and attentive to our minds ’ potential can help fight anxiety and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Balancing those three sides is paramount to achieving an adequate level of preparation and an optimum survival mindset .
The material aspect seems to make new preppers quite anxious early on .
It is a simple concept , but not easy .
This reaction is typical ( and expected ) because stockpiling is generally the first thing people equate to prepping .
Often , in the early stages of prepping , too much is purchased , or the items are too complex and sometimes useless .
Gear , tools , food , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , contributing to overshooting the mark .
Fear-mongering and commercialism are usually the leading cause of the anxiety induced over-purchasing .
Lack of financial resources can also contribute to material anxiety .
Many people tend to believe peace of mind can be bought .
Indeed , buying things works as a quick fix .
It is an easy way to suppress anxiety and FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out ) .
However , people soon discover the “ fix ” did not last long , and the anxiety returns .
Or worse : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on “ stuff.
” With time we learn what is truly important and what is not .
Building a stockpile and having the right gear is good .
It ’ s important to stay alert to the marketplace and the supply chain ( the system ) , the availability of products , etc .
Those are part of prepping .
But “ stuff anxiety ” is poisonous to our psychology ( mindset ) in the sense that it can : It may wreak havoc on our finances too .
We must , therefore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it .
Grass is grass whether its green or not .
The human condition of comparing and feeling less prepared is normal .
But our comparisons are rarely based in reality and are very poisonous psychologically .
Stay alert to this .
If we look around , we will find many people in varying stages of prepping .
Comparing ourselves to others does nothing except make us feel inadequate or overly confident .
And both are bad for us .
Comparison to others is counterproductive .
The only criterion that matters – because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ works in our favor – is ourselves today compared to ourselves yesterday .
Ask yourself these questions : • None Have you been adding to your preparations ?
• None Do you feel more prepared today than you did last week or month ?
Big or small , in one way or another , doesn ’ t matter .
If you did something to inch closer to your own goals , you advanced .
So be pragmatic : focus on yourself and what you can do for yourself and your family .
Take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and limitations .
Researching what others do , to learn from it , is OK .
But resist the temptation to compare .
New preppers tend to go overboard with all aspects of prepping .
I was guilty of going overboard .
I ’ m not talking about just gear , knowledge , skills , fitness , or stockpiles .
But also the mentality and ideology of prepping .
Depending on your personality and drive , it may become a problem .
( “ Tenet Nosce ” – know thyself ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is a common and rather dangerous pitfall .
Going overboard can wreak havoc on our finances , relationships , careers , health , and create anxiety .
When we enter the prepping and survivalism realm , we begin to see the world for what it is : full of beauty and wonder and a complicated , crazy , dangerous , and unforgiving place .
Suddenly the possibility of SHTF , and the importance of being prepared , becomes all that matters .
It ’ s easy to get overwhelmed .
Prepping can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than necessary or feel like an insurmountable challenge .
The idea of being too late or too behind is a common source of anxiety Heed this : prepping is a plan , not a forecast of SHTF .
Many have been preparing for years or even decades and haven ’ t been through SHTF yet .
( Thankfully – let ’ s hope it stays that way ) .
It ’ s also a marathon , not a sprint .
There ’ s the saying , “ the best time to prepare is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today ; the third , tomorrow.
” If you ’ ve already started and consistently do something daily or weekly , you ’ re on the right path .
The rest is beyond our control .
Just considering SHTF and prepping/survival puts you ahead in the game .
Could it be that SHTF is just around the corner ?
Sure , anything is possible .
But then what good can come from freaking out ?
Not everyone who survives SHTF is a Green Beret or special force agent .
I ’ d argue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do what you can with the time at hand and stop worrying too much .
Don ’ t procrastinate , but don ’ t rush trying to cover some lost ground , real or imagined .
“ He who makes haste makes waste.
” Take that burden from your mind and focus on what ’ s under your control .
Tip : Stay informed and thinking critically about what ’ s going on in the world and around you ( without going overboard ) .
At the same time , work on your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Getting others to join in your prepping activities is hard .
Many preppers have a hard time trying to include their significant other , family , friends , and coworkers in prepping .
Sometimes , our reaction can be to isolate or exaggerate to alleviate our anxiety .
Tension and conflicts can emerge from these behaviors .
( Notice this is related to aspects of OPSEC and going overboard ) .
There ’ s no sense in putting a job , a marriage , even a hobby or whatever , in jeopardy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t be the cause of your own SHTF .
Don ’ t push people away .
Turning negative or too preachy or too involved ( or too certain ) can contaminate our entire lives .
Prepping should be a way of bringing balance and calm to our lives .
Pay constant attention to your level of enthusiasm and dedication .
Restraint is essential in this .
Keeping our prepping activities ( somewhat ) secret can cause anxiety .
OPSEC can be a thing , especially for people in certain places and situations .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be made difficult by our current situations .
We must learn to manage this , so we do not get carried away in one way or another , and avoid overcompensating in other areas .
“ Stuff ” anxiety , for instance , or inadvertently risking our preparations .
Skill level can be a significant source of anxiety and feelings of inadequacy .
Feeling unsure of your skills is common among many preppers and survivalists .
The best way to relieve your doubts and anxiety is by acquiring knowledge .
Developing skills @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand .
Focus , hard work , and discipline , dealing with this specific side of preparedness and survival has the opposite effect in our psychology .
Learning something new requires dedication and time .
In return , developing a skill builds real and long-lasting confidence .
We become calmer and centered – and we are relieved of the anxiety .
Taking courses , reading books and blogs , volunteering , and helping others are excellent ways to build your confidence .
Knowledge and skill are critical when GEAR is involved .
Tools @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know how and when to use them .
Unlike “ stuff , ” knowledge and skills can ’ t be left behind , taken away , stolen , or destroyed ( though we can ruin it ourselves in some ways ) .
Some skills are acquired quickly , and others take more time .
Some take years to attain a decent level .
We must also remember that even though there ’ s an average , people learn differently .
Some learn fast , and others take longer .
And there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cerebral activities ( language , communication , finance , etc . )
while others excel in more practical , hands-on activities ( ex .
woodwork , fixing things , shooting guns , etc. )
.
Each of us has our own context to consider : family , job , availability , where we live , and so on .
None of that is either good or bad , just aspects to consider at the individual level .
I ’ ve seen many succeed by starting with basic prepping or survival activities , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by taking an easy , quick one along with a more demanding/difficult one going .
What counts here is , each new skill acquired will bring a sense of accomplishment and help to keep momentum .
Accept the fact that prepping can be an investment with a slow return rate People have a hard time when the results of their hard work are not immediately seen .
Most people tend to postpone , drop out , or turn to secondary , more instantly gratifying tasks .
It may , at times , look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But if we can see the gains and believe in the process , we can persevere .
I have never in my life regretted or found it to be a waste of time taking on a journey to learn something new ( it is a journey ; there is never an end ) .
Even when that something wasn ’ t immediately useful or applicable .
Take Morse Code , for instance : since I learned it in my youth , I ’ ve used it only for fun .
I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to save my life or something ( though who knows ) .
Either way , I had a hell of a good time learning the dihs-and-dahs .
Learning something new is an excellent exercise for the brain Learning keeps us sharp and young : two essential things for survival but also our everyday lives .
Also , staying busy is the best way to attenuate the ills of the soul , especially anxiety Focus on a new project or task takes away the sapping power of overthinking about things and puts the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ productive force .
Less because we are advancing , more because we are moving .
Even though at times it seems we ’ re going sideways if we persist , there are benefits of discipline .
Looking for certainty and assurance isn ’ t the objective of preparedness .
It is OK to have questions , to have doubts .
Continually evaluating our efforts and actions is healthy and positive .
It is necessary to correct and improve .
It is OK to pause , step back and ponder alternatives When taking a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it affects our capacity to make decisions and take action or follow the course .
Professionals in sports and business call this paralysis by analysis .
Consistent practice will help keep this from interfering with our psychology or get in the way of our actions .
I believe in the saying by the ancient Greek poet Archilochus : “ We don ’ t rise to the level of our expectations ; we fall to the level of our training.
” To me , preparation is not an end .
I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I aim to stay fit and healthy .
It ’ s the same with prepping .
I may attend a class or training camp or even some classes on bodybuilding .
Those are important .
But hitting the gym every day is what will build the muscles .
In life , consistent practice every day is what matters .
Wisdom “ …the quality of having experience , knowledge , and good judgment ” Wisdom is highly desirable in survival situations because it allows for flexibility and adjustability in different situations and scenarios .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide that .
Not one that I am aware of anyway .
Wisdom comes from a vast amount of experience over a period of time .
We wise up as we make and correct mistakes , learn the craft one step at a time , and incorporate it along the journey .
It is acquired through direct experience , playing the game , and also from training .
So learn , but never stop practicing .
We can combat anxiety and negativity while we advance our preparations and improve our quality of life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our feelings and reactions • None Being aware of and controlling/managing our impulses • None Working on being better every day rather than worrying • None Focusing on ourselves and our actions , our unique context .
• None Constantly assessing and reevaluating our strategies and actions • None Always learning something new Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo , Brazil .
Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type , he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings .
Since the 2008 world economic crisis , he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “ constant , slow-burning SHTF ” of living in a 3rd world country .
Fabian ’ s ebook , Street Survivalism : A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City , is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless ( real-life survivors ) to be more psychologically , mentally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times .
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @ stoicsurvivor

by Fabian Ommar
Eventually, even some of the most prepared preppers will question themselves and their survival skills. Fortunately, if we shift the energy to skill development and self-improvement, those negative feelings will subside.
Whenever I offer guidance to someone new to prepping and survivalism, one issue seems to affect neophytes the most: anxiety. More specifically, prepper’s anxiety. The feelings of urgency, inadequacy, deficiency, insufficiency, and lagging can overwhelm even long-time preppers. This can be even more true during long-term situations like the one we’re all facing now.
Don’t let the anxiety paralyze you and stop you from prepping
Sometimes, anxiety can motivate us to advance our preparations. Questioning ourselves here and there can be positive. Living in a constant state of anxiety is not.
“Is it too late? Am I doing all I can? Are my stockpiles enough, and for how long? What if this or that is missing? Should I learn X or get another Y thingy or that extra backup giZmo? Have I got everything covered? How prepared am I, really?”
I admit to being assaulted by the barrage of questions, despite living in a slow-burning SHTF. Doubt and insecurity have crept in even though I have been prepping and practicing survivalism for some time.
The three sides of prepping and survivalism
As with many things in life, preparation and survivalism have three sides:
Material (“stuff”: more associated with prepping)
Psychological (mindset: more connected to survivalism)
Practical (knowledge/skills, strategies, and fitness: also survival-related)
All three of these sides are interconnected. Each one affects the other. These sides also affect how we feel. For me, personally, there is a spiritual side, but for this article, I will focus on the above mentioned three.
It is essential to objectively look at (and understand) the mechanisms and motivations behind our thoughts, actions, and reactions. This is especially important when it comes to being prepared for disasters.
I always express the importance of focusing on what is under our control, which is ourselves. Self-awareness is crucial. Being conscious and attentive to our minds’ potential can help fight anxiety and other negative feelings that may thwart personal advancements.
Balancing those three sides is paramount to achieving an adequate level of preparation and an optimum survival mindset.
Material (or “stuff”) Anxiety
The material aspect seems to make new preppers quite anxious early on. It is a simple concept, but not easy. This reaction is typical (and expected) because stockpiling is generally the first thing people equate to prepping.
Often, in the early stages of prepping, too much is purchased, or the items are too complex and sometimes useless. Gear, tools, food, and other essential items are easily acquired, contributing to overshooting the mark. Fear-mongering and commercialism are usually the leading cause of the anxiety induced over-purchasing. Lack of financial resources can also contribute to material anxiety.
Many people tend to believe peace of mind can be bought. Indeed, buying things works as a quick fix. It is an easy way to suppress anxiety and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). However, people soon discover the “fix” did not last long, and the anxiety returns. Or worse: it makes us falsely confident and over-reliant on “stuff.” With time we learn what is truly important and what is not.
Building a stockpile and having the right gear is good. It’s important to stay alert to the marketplace and the supply chain (the system), the availability of products, etc. Those are part of prepping. But “stuff anxiety” is poisonous to our psychology (mindset) in the sense that it can:
Self-feed into a depression
Lead to paralysis
Trick us into complacency.
It may wreak havoc on our finances too. We must, therefore, pay attention and learn to control it.
Grass is grass whether its green or not.
The human condition of comparing and feeling less prepared is normal. But our comparisons are rarely based in reality and are very poisonous psychologically. Stay alert to this. If we look around, we will find many people in varying stages of prepping. Comparing ourselves to others does nothing except make us feel inadequate or overly confident. And both are bad for us.
Comparison to others is counterproductive. The only criterion that matters – because it’s the only one that works in our favor – is ourselves today compared to ourselves yesterday.
Ask yourself these questions:
Have you been adding to your preparations?
Do you feel more prepared today than you did last week or month?
Big or small, in one way or another, doesn’t matter. If you did something to inch closer to your own goals, you advanced. So be pragmatic: focus on yourself and what you can do for yourself and your family. Take into consideration your unique situation, resources, and limitations. Researching what others do, to learn from it, is OK. But resist the temptation to compare.
New preppers tend to go overboard with all aspects of prepping.
I was guilty of going overboard. I’m not talking about just gear, knowledge, skills, fitness, or stockpiles. But also the mentality and ideology of prepping. Depending on your personality and drive, it may become a problem. (“Tenet Nosce” – know thyself). Try to be conscious and careful as this is a common and rather dangerous pitfall. Going overboard can wreak havoc on our finances, relationships, careers, health, and create anxiety.
When we enter the prepping and survivalism realm, we begin to see the world for what it is: full of beauty and wonder and a complicated, crazy, dangerous, and unforgiving place. Suddenly the possibility of SHTF, and the importance of being prepared, becomes all that matters. It’s easy to get overwhelmed. Prepping can then either be given far more attention than necessary or feel like an insurmountable challenge.
Focus on moderation.
Psychological Anxiety
The idea of being too late or too behind is a common source of anxiety
Heed this: prepping is a plan, not a forecast of SHTF. Many have been preparing for years or even decades and haven’t been through SHTF yet. (Thankfully – let’s hope it stays that way).
It’s also a marathon, not a sprint. There’s the saying, “the best time to prepare is last year; the second best, today; the third, tomorrow.” If you’ve already started and consistently do something daily or weekly, you’re on the right path. The rest is beyond our control. Just considering SHTF and prepping/survival puts you ahead in the game.
Could it be that SHTF is just around the corner?
Sure, anything is possible. But then what good can come from freaking out? Not everyone who survives SHTF is a Green Beret or special force agent. I’d argue it can be the opposite. So do what you can with the time at hand and stop worrying too much.
Don’t procrastinate, but don’t rush trying to cover some lost ground, real or imagined. “He who makes haste makes waste.” Take that burden from your mind and focus on what’s under your control.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Tip: Stay informed and thinking critically about what’s going on in the world and around you (without going overboard). At the same time, work on your preparations as best as your situation allows.
Getting others to join in your prepping activities is hard.
Many preppers have a hard time trying to include their significant other, family, friends, and coworkers in prepping. Sometimes, our reaction can be to isolate or exaggerate to alleviate our anxiety. Tension and conflicts can emerge from these behaviors. (Notice this is related to aspects of OPSEC and going overboard). There’s no sense in putting a job, a marriage, even a hobby or whatever, in jeopardy.
In other words, don’t be the cause of your own SHTF. Don’t push people away. Turning negative or too preachy or too involved (or too certain) can contaminate our entire lives. Prepping should be a way of bringing balance and calm to our lives. Pay constant attention to your level of enthusiasm and dedication. Restraint is essential in this.
Keeping our prepping activities (somewhat) secret can cause anxiety.
OPSEC can be a thing, especially for people in certain places and situations. Discussing preparations or exchanging ideas with others can be made difficult by our current situations.
We must learn to manage this, so we do not get carried away in one way or another, and avoid overcompensating in other areas. “Stuff” anxiety, for instance, or inadvertently risking our preparations.
Practical Anxiety
Skill level can be a significant source of anxiety and feelings of inadequacy.
Feeling unsure of your skills is common among many preppers and survivalists. The best way to relieve your doubts and anxiety is by acquiring knowledge. Developing skills demands that you understand the issues at hand. Focus, hard work, and discipline, dealing with this specific side of preparedness and survival has the opposite effect in our psychology.
Learning something new requires dedication and time. In return, developing a skill builds real and long-lasting confidence. We become calmer and centered – and we are relieved of the anxiety. Taking courses, reading books and blogs, volunteering, and helping others are excellent ways to build your confidence.
Knowledge and skill are critical when GEAR is involved. Tools are useful – but only if we know how and when to use them. Unlike “stuff,” knowledge and skills can’t be left behind, taken away, stolen, or destroyed (though we can ruin it ourselves in some ways).
Reality check: developing a skill is demanding and time-consuming
Some skills are acquired quickly, and others take more time. Some take years to attain a decent level. We must also remember that even though there’s an average, people learn differently. Some learn fast, and others take longer. And there’s compatibility: some fare better in more cerebral activities (language, communication, finance, etc.) while others excel in more practical, hands-on activities (ex. woodwork, fixing things, shooting guns, etc.).
Each of us has our own context to consider: family, job, availability, where we live, and so on. None of that is either good or bad, just aspects to consider at the individual level.
I’ve seen many succeed by starting with basic prepping or survival activities, then progressing to more complex ones. Or by taking an easy, quick one along with a more demanding/difficult one going. What counts here is, each new skill acquired will bring a sense of accomplishment and help to keep momentum.
Accept the fact that prepping can be an investment with a slow return rate
People have a hard time when the results of their hard work are not immediately seen. Most people tend to postpone, drop out, or turn to secondary, more instantly gratifying tasks. It may, at times, look like a hard, meaningless slog. But if we can see the gains and believe in the process, we can persevere.
I have never in my life regretted or found it to be a waste of time taking on a journey to learn something new (it is a journey; there is never an end). Even when that something wasn’t immediately useful or applicable. Take Morse Code, for instance: since I learned it in my youth, I’ve used it only for fun. I’m not sure I’d ever need it to save my life or something (though who knows). Either way, I had a hell of a good time learning the dihs-and-dahs.
Learning something new is an excellent exercise for the brain
Learning keeps us sharp and young: two essential things for survival but also our everyday lives. Also, staying busy is the best way to attenuate the ills of the soul, especially anxiety
Focus on a new project or task takes away the sapping power of overthinking about things and puts the control back in our hands as a productive force. Less because we are advancing, more because we are moving. Even though at times it seems we’re going sideways if we persist, there are benefits of discipline.
Looking for certainty and assurance isn’t the objective of preparedness. It is OK to have questions, to have doubts. Continually evaluating our efforts and actions is healthy and positive. It is necessary to correct and improve.
It is OK to pause, step back and ponder alternatives
When taking a step back, many of us find it affects our capacity to make decisions and take action or follow the course. Professionals in sports and business call this paralysis by analysis. Consistent practice will help keep this from interfering with our psychology or get in the way of our actions.
I believe in the saying by the ancient Greek poet Archilochus: “We don’t rise to the level of our expectations; we fall to the level of our training.”
To me, preparation is not an end. I don’t try to achieve fitness and health: I aim to stay fit and healthy. It’s the same with prepping. I may attend a class or training camp or even some classes on bodybuilding. Those are important. But hitting the gym every day is what will build the muscles. In life, consistent practice every day is what matters.
Wisdom “…the quality of having experience, knowledge, and good judgment”
Wisdom is highly desirable in survival situations because it allows for flexibility and adjustability in different situations and scenarios. That is invaluable. No gadget can provide that. Not one that I am aware of anyway.
Wisdom comes from a vast amount of experience over a period of time. We wise up as we make and correct mistakes, learn the craft one step at a time, and incorporate it along the journey. It is acquired through direct experience, playing the game, and also from training. So learn, but never stop practicing.
Summary
We can combat anxiety and negativity while we advance our preparations and improve our quality of life by:
Staying alert to our feelings and reactions
Being aware of and controlling/managing our impulses
Working on being better every day rather than worrying
Focusing on ourselves and our actions, our unique context.
Constantly assessing and reevaluating our strategies and actions
Always learning something new
Practicing with consistence
I hope you stay safe and stay prepared! ~ Fabian
About Fabian
Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.
Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City, is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times.
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor


Bitcoin as Messenger

A lot of people look at Bitcoin as a great trading vehicle , and good for them ( the ones who have been long this year ) .
But Bitcoin prices have another value , as a messenger about what is coming for the stock market .
I looked at this relationship here back in January 2018 , and again in May 2018 , examining how the movements of Bitcoin prices were showing up after a varying lag time in the movements of the stock market .
Back then , the lag time was anywhere from 49-56 calendar days .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ movements have tightened up to just a 1 week lag time for the stock market .
That 5 trading day lag has worked for the most part throughout 2020 .
I do not know why it works at all , nor why it works at a 5TD lag , nor why the lag has shrunk itself from 8 weeks to just 1 week .
I can not explain it .
But I can observe it and hopefully gain useful insights from it .
This 5-day lag relationship has gained increased importance this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 18,000s to above 23,000 in just 5 trading days .
The SP500 tends to echo Bitcoin ’ s price movements with much more muted magnitudes , but this Bitcoin move is a pretty big deal .
It comes upon news reports that big institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are concluding that they had better join in the party , before the party runs away .
FOMO ( fear of missing out ) exists , it seems , even at the institutional level .
The key for using this , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that one should not expect the magnitudes of the price movements to be equal .
Rather , it is about the timing of the dance steps .
And if you get the timing of the up and down movements right , the magnitudes can take care of themselves .
One worry for the Bitcoin and stock market bulls is that Bitcoin prices might be blowing off to a spike top .
That is a reasonable worry anytime one sees price movements which are as dramatic as this .
On that topic , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the Bitcoin futures market .
It is an admittedly small part of the overall financial futures market , but size does not have to matter if the messaging is good .
What I have noticed is that when Bitcoin prices make a blowoff top , there is typically a corresponding blowoff spike in open interest in Bitcoin futures .
That is an important insight , because there is no open interest spike at the moment .
If this up move in Bitcoin prices was going to be a terminal move in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see a rapid up move in open interest , and we are not seeing that ( yet ) .
The implication is that there is still more yet to come for this up move in Bitcoin prices , and thus for the up move in stock prices .

by Tom McClellan
A lot of people look at Bitcoin as a great trading vehicle, and good for them (the ones who have been long this year). But Bitcoin prices have another value, as a messenger about what is coming for the stock market.
I looked at this relationship here back in January 2018, and again in May 2018, examining how the movements of Bitcoin prices were showing up after a varying lag time in the movements of the stock market. Back then, the lag time was anywhere from 49-56 calendar days. The recent change is that Bitcoins price movements have tightened up to just a 1 week lag time for the stock market.
That 5 trading day lag has worked for the most part throughout 2020. I do not know why it works at all, nor why it works at a 5TD lag, nor why the lag has shrunk itself from 8 weeks to just 1 week. I cannot explain it. But I can observe it and hopefully gain useful insights from it.
This 5-day lag relationship has gained increased importance this week, as Bitcoin prices have gone from the 18,000s to above 23,000 in just 5 trading days. The SP500 tends to echo Bitcoin’s price movements with much more muted magnitudes, but this Bitcoin move is a pretty big deal. It comes upon news reports that big institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are concluding that they had better join in the party, before the party runs away. FOMO (fear of missing out) exists, it seems, even at the institutional level.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The key for using this, or any other leading indication relationship, is that one should not expect the magnitudes of the price movements to be equal. Rather, it is about the timing of the dance steps. And if you get the timing of the up and down movements right, the magnitudes can take care of themselves.
One worry for the Bitcoin and stock market bulls is that Bitcoin prices might be blowing off to a spike top. That is a reasonable worry anytime one sees price movements which are as dramatic as this. On that topic, I have found a useful insight from looking at the Bitcoin futures market. It is an admittedly small part of the overall financial futures market, but size does not have to matter if the messaging is good.
What I have noticed is that when Bitcoin prices make a blowoff top, there is typically a corresponding blowoff spike in open interest in Bitcoin futures. That is an important insight, because there is no open interest spike at the moment.
If this up move in Bitcoin prices was going to be a terminal move in the immediate future, then we should expect to see a rapid up move in open interest, and we are not seeing that (yet). The implication is that there is still more yet to come for this up move in Bitcoin prices, and thus for the up move in stock prices.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--UBS Chief Economist: There Is No Inflation, Consumers Are Just Imagining It

Yesterday we asked if it was time to start worrying about food inflation while discussing recent notes by both Goldman and SocGen ’ s Albert Edwards , who highlighted the current burst in food inflation across the globe and especially emerging markets , pointing out troubling similarities to the period of soaring food inflation in late 2010 – sparked by QE2 – and which culminated with the Arab Spring which led to numerous governments being toppled across the MENA region .
In his conclusion , Edwards urged readers to “ keep a very close eye as to whether we see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ food prices ” because “ on the 10th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring , and with poverty having already been made much worse by the pandemic , another food price bubble could well be the straw to break the very angry camel ’ s back.
” In this context it becomes immediately clear why the topic of inflation is as much about politics ( and geopolitics ) as it is about economics and capital markets ( we will spare a discussion here of why the CPI is purposefully distorted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can catch up here , here and here ) , and according to many analysts the biggest risk for record stock prices is a burst higher in inflation .
It ’ s also why so many establishment economists are desperate to convince both markets and consumers ( and perhaps , themselves ) that despite surging food , housing , education and healthcare costs ( and stagnant wages ) …

Yesterday we asked if it was time to start worrying about food inflation while discussing recent notes by both Goldman and SocGen’s Albert Edwards, who highlighted the current burst in food inflation across the globe and especially emerging markets, pointing out troubling similarities to the period of soaring food inflation in late 2010 – sparked by QE2 – and which culminated with the Arab Spring which led to numerous governments being toppled across the MENA region.
In his conclusion, Edwards urged readers to “keep a very close eye as to whether we see a repeat of the 2010/11 surge in food prices” because “on the 10th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring, and with poverty having already been made much worse by the pandemic, another food price bubble could well be the straw to break the very angry camel’s back.”
In this context it becomes immediately clear why the topic of inflation is as much about politics (and geopolitics) as it is about economics and capital markets (we will spare a discussion here of why the CPI is purposefully distorted to stay as low as possible – readers can catch up here, here and here), and according to many analysts the biggest risk for record stock prices is a burst higher in inflation.
It’s also why so many establishment economists are desperate to convince both markets and consumers (and perhaps, themselves) that despite surging food, housing, education and healthcare costs (and stagnant wages)…


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Pakistan’s National Security Advisor on Indian preparations for military strikes against Pakistan:

‘ Immediately conduct surgical strike on China , Pakistan ’ : Sanjay Raut on minister ’ s remark on farmers @ @ @ @ @ day after Union minister Raosaheb Danve blamed China and Pakistan for the ongoing protests by @ @ @ @ @ Sanjay Raut took a swipe at him saying that Defence Minister should immediately “ conduct @ @ @ @ @ the two neighboring countries .
“ If a Union minister has information that China and @ @ @ @ @ farmers agitation , then , the Defence Minister should immediately conduct a surgical strike on @ @ @ @ @ said the Shiv Sena leader .
Raut further said that the President , Prime Miniter @ @ @ @ @ of the Armed Forces should discuss this issue seriously .

‘Immediately conduct surgical strike on China, Pakistan’: Sanjay Raut on minister’s remark on farmers’ protest
Mumbai: A day after Union minister Raosaheb Danve blamed China and Pakistan for the ongoing protests by farmers, Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut took a swipe at him saying that Defence Minister should immediately “conduct a surgical strike” on the two neighboring countries.
“If a Union minister has information that China and Pakistan have a hand behind farmers agitation, then, the Defence Minister should immediately conduct a surgical strike on China and Pakistan,” said the Shiv Sena leader.
Raut further said that the President, Prime Miniter, Home Minister and chiefs of the Armed Forces should discuss this issue seriously.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--EEOC says employers can BAR unvaccinated employees from the workplace

With the first doses of Pfizer ’ s COVID-19 vaccine now being administered in the U.S. , the federal government @ @ @ @ @ country the green light to require immunization for most workers .
In general , companies @ @ @ @ @ mandate that employees get a COVID-19 shot , the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission ( EEOC @ @ @ @ @ specifically , employers are entitled — and required — to ensure a safe workplace in @ @ @ @ @ not pose a direct threat to the health or safety of individuals in the workplace.
@ @ @ @ @ company requiring its workforce to be vaccinated .
The Americans with Disabilities Act limits an @ @ @ @ @ require workers to get a medical examination .
But the EEOC ’ s latest guidance @ @ @ @ @ not constitute a medical exam .
As a result , ordering employees to get a @ @ @ @ @ the ADA .

With the first doses of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine now being administered in the U.S., the federal government is giving employers around the country the green light to require immunization for most workers.
In general, companies have the legal right to mandate that employees get a COVID-19 shot, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) said Wednesday. More specifically, employers are entitled — and required — to ensure a safe workplace in which “an individual shall not pose a direct threat to the health or safety of individuals in the workplace.” That can mean a company requiring its workforce to be vaccinated.
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The Americans with Disabilities Act limits an employer’s ability to require workers to get a medical examination. But the EEOC’s latest guidance clarifies that getting vaccinated does not constitute a medical exam. As a result, ordering employees to get a COVID-19 shot would not violate the ADA.
www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-employers-exclude-unvaccinated-workers/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=107421287


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Rare fungal disease hits India – People are dying

As India inches towards a grim milestone of ten million COVID-19 cases , a new rare disease known as mucormycosis @ @ @ @ @ .
According to doctors , the COVID-triggered disease has a 50 percent mortality rate .
@ @ @ @ @ Indian states have alerted people as hospitals have reported the rapid spread of a deadly @ @ @ @ @ across the region .
At least nine people have already reportedly died due to this @ @ @ @ @ a hundred more have been hospitalised in different hospitals in Delhi and Ahmedabad .
“ @ @ @ @ @ rare disease spread through various mediums including that of media , more people have contacted @ @ @ @ @ , over a hundred people are being treated for this black fungal infection in different @ @ @ @ @ , Dr Manish Munjal , Senior Consultant at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital told Sputnik .

As India inches towards a grim milestone of ten million COVID-19 cases, a new rare disease known as mucormycosis is spreading across the country. According to doctors, the COVID-triggered disease has a 50 percent mortality rate.
Authorities in northern and western Indian states have alerted people as hospitals have reported the rapid spread of a deadly fungal infection, mucormycosis, across the region. At least nine people have already reportedly died due to this rare disease, while over a hundred more have been hospitalised in different hospitals in Delhi and Ahmedabad.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Protestors in Palestine take down an Israeli drone with rocks.

NEW – Protestors in Palestine take down an Israeli drone with rocks.pic.twitter.com/fxNQLtQlDd
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Do negative interest-rates make Switzerland a currency manipulator?

When we consider the impact of negative interest-rates then we can learn a lot from Switzerland which qualifies by both how low they have gone and how long it has had them .
The saga began back pre credit crunch when the combination of low Swiss interest-rates and ones higher elsewhere particularly in Eastern Europe was seen as an opportunity by some bright sparks .
They organised deals where for example mortgage borrowers in Eastern Europe could borrow at near ( there was a fee of course ) Swiss Franc interest-rates.Everyone ’ s a winner or so it appeared although @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currency position short the Swiss Franc ) was there .
When the credit crunch hit the latter issue came to the front of investor ’ s minds and indeed to foreign currency borrowers wallets and purses .
The safe haven status of the Swiss Franc saw it rally from its artificially depressed level and this was added to by the beginning of reversals of the carry trade .
If we look at the Hungarian Forint we see that a pre credit crunch exchange rate of 143 was replaced by one of 200 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of 2011 .
As monthly mortgage payments were based in this there was a house of pain but from the point of view of the Swiss their currency rapidly became expensive .
We can in fact bring this up to date .
Let me now switch to this mornings policy meeting at the Swiss National Bank .
Not much rolling back there and President Thomas Jordan went further here .
More precise details were given by board member Maechler .
Indeed there was also this .
Indeed only last night the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And Beyond !
Theme .
For the moment it would appear that the US Federal Reserve is winning the currency wars .
Before I move on there is something of a curiousity in currency markets .
Actually I have just checked and it is now some US $ 7.2 billion according to the New York Fed .
An extra US $ 1.34 billion was borrowed on the 9th for 84 days so taking us comfortably beyond the year end as someone sings along with Aloe Blacc .
It is the leader of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course banks in the Euro area can access cash at -1 % .
Also it looks as though it will not be rising for quite some time .
Indeed even if that were not true this would keep it there .
So the idea that negative interest-rates would stop recessions has not worked .
Also there is this .
As you can see the Swiss yield curve is almost flat and having just checked the thirty-year yield ( -0.37 % ) we see that not only does that continue but the Swiss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yield curve .
I wonder if they issued a century bond whether that would remain true ?
I have left until now the point that this has lasted nearly 6 years .
So any argument that this would be temporary has long gone and in fact it looks ever more permanent .
Indeed 2020 has been more likely to see a further cut than a rise .
This means that long-term investment has a problem as Swiss Info pointed out earlier this year .
On the other side of the coin the SNB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government finance itself .
Oh and the housing market .
Who gave the central bankers the power to transfer money from one group to another ?

by Shaun Richards
When we consider the impact of negative interest-rates then we can learn a lot from Switzerland which qualifies by both how low they have gone and how long it has had them. The saga began back pre credit crunch when the combination of low Swiss interest-rates and ones higher elsewhere particularly in Eastern Europe was seen as an opportunity by some bright sparks. They organised deals where for example mortgage borrowers in Eastern Europe could borrow at near ( there was a fee of course) Swiss Franc interest-rates.Everyone’s a winner or so it appeared although the risk ( that borrowers had a currency position short the Swiss Franc) was there.
When the credit crunch hit the latter issue came to the front of investor’s minds and indeed to foreign currency borrowers wallets and purses. The safe haven status of the Swiss Franc saw it rally from its artificially depressed level and this was added to by the beginning of reversals of the carry trade. If we look at the Hungarian Forint we see that a pre credit crunch exchange rate of 143 was replaced by one of 200 in about 6 months and 260 at the end of 2011. As monthly mortgage payments were based in this there was a house of pain but from the point of view of the Swiss their currency rapidly became expensive.
Currency Manipulator
We can in fact bring this up to date.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury labeled Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators on Wednesday…….. the Treasury said that through June 2020 both Switzerland and Vietnam had intervened in currency markets to prevent effective balance of payments adjustments.
Let me now switch to this mornings policy meeting at the Swiss National Bank.
In the light of the highly valued Swiss franc, we remain willing to intervene more strongly in the
foreign exchange market. In so doing, we take the overall exchange rate situation into consideration.
Not much rolling back there and President Thomas Jordan went further here.
Second, the negative interest rate and our foreign exchange market interventions counter the upward pressure on the Swiss franc. This pressure is especially high in periods of uncertainty,and a strong appreciation would weigh particularly heavily on the economy in the crisis. We
have therefore made considerable foreign exchange purchases this year to maintain appropriate monetary conditions.
More precise details were given by board member Maechler.
On a trade-weighted basis, the Swiss franc is almost 1.5%
stronger in nominal terms than at the end of June. It thus remains highly valued. As reported in our interim results, we carried out foreign exchange market interventions
totalling CHF 90 billion in the first half of this year. On a trade-weighted basis, the Swiss franc has strengthened some 5% in real terms since the beginning of 2020.
Indeed there was also this.
Interesting to see the Swiss National Bank use a chart which suggests that it is the US which has been the currency manipulator in 2020. pic.twitter.com/Jn3wqa6bRG — Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) December 17, 2020
Indeed only last night the US Federal Reserve confirmed my To Infinity! And Beyond! Theme.
In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.
For the moment it would appear that the US Federal Reserve is winning the currency wars.
Before I move on there is something of a curiousity in currency markets.
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It may, then, provoke some alarm that the latest auction of three-month loans from the Swiss National Bank saw $1.2bn-worth of dollars granted, leaving the total amount of these loans outstanding at just short of $5bn. While that is nowhere near as high as during the spring — when around $11bn was outstanding — a few months ago the figure was less than $1bn. ( FT Alphaville 1st of December)
Actually I have just checked and it is now some US $7.2 billion according to the New York Fed. An extra US $1.34 billion was borrowed on the 9th for 84 days so taking us comfortably beyond the year end as someone sings along with Aloe Blacc.
I need a dollar, dollar a dollar is what I need
(Hey hey)
Well I need a dollar, dollar a dollar is what I need
(Hey hey)
And I said I need dollar dollar, a dollar is what I need
And if I share with you my story would you share your dollar with me
The Policy Rate
This saga starts simply.
The SNB is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the SNB at −0.75%.
It is the leader of the negative interest-rates pack for official rates although of course banks in the Euro area can access cash at -1%. Also it looks as though it will not be rising for quite some time.
In the longer term, the inflation forecast is unchanged from
September. The forecast for 2020 is negative (−0.7%). The inflation rate is likely to be higher again next year (0.0%) and slightly positive in 2022 (0.2%). The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at −0.75% over the entire
forecast horizon.
Indeed even if that were not true this would keep it there.
However, in October coronavirus also spread rapidly again in Switzerland. This has resulted
in a renewed deterioration in the economic outlook. The containment measures implemented
thus far are restricting economic activity less than was the case in the spring. Nevertheless,
momentum is likely to be weak in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021.
The SNB expects that GDP will shrink by around 3% this year.
So the idea that negative interest-rates would stop recessions has not worked.
Also there is this.
A moderate decline in yields was also observed in Switzerland. For example, the latest reading shows the yield on 10-year Confederation bonds just below the
mid-year values, at around –0.6% ( SNB)
As you can see the Swiss yield curve is almost flat and having just checked the thirty-year yield ( -0.37%) we see that not only does that continue but the Swiss are being paid to borrow across the yield curve. I wonder if they issued a century bond whether that would remain true?
Comment
I have left until now the point that this has lasted nearly 6 years. So any argument that this would be temporary has long gone and in fact it looks ever more permanent. Indeed 2020 has been more likely to see a further cut than a rise. This means that long-term investment has a problem as Swiss Info pointed out earlier this year.
Savers: For some years now, savings have been earning interest at rates just above zero. Pension funds: Until about ten years ago, pension funds were able to pay substantial interest to their policyholders, thereby making a significant contribution to the growth of their old-age assets. This is no longer the case………The state pension scheme also faces similar problems, although to a lesser extent.
On the other side of the coin the SNB is in fact setting policies which help the government finance itself.
The State: With a total debt of almost CHF200 billion, the government, cantons and municipalities have largely benefited from the low cost of money.
Oh and the housing market.
Property owners: Because mortgage interest rates have been at unprecedentedly low levels for several years, property owners also benefit from negative interest rates. At the same time, the prices of houses and apartments in many regions of Switzerland have practically doubled within a decade.
Who gave the central bankers the power to transfer money from one group to another?


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Oil Industry Needs Whopping $12.6 Trillion In Investments

The global oil industry needs some $ 12.6 trillion in investments through 2045 , the secretary-general of OPEC said at a videoconference , adding these investments would be essential for the industry to improve the efficiency of its operations .
“ The global oil sector will need cumulative investment of $ 12.6 trillion in the upstream , midstream and downstream through to 2045 , ” Mohammed Barkindo said , as quoted by Azertac .
“ At OPEC , we recognize the importance of energy efficiency as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions , while allowing for sustainable development .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and producers is critical to improving efficiency.
” OPEC earlier this month agreed to start boosting oil production—including the production of its non-OPEC partners in the OPEC+ group—by half a million barrels daily beginning in January .
Also this month , however , the cartel revised down its oil demand forecast for 2021 .
According to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report , demand for crude next year will only increase by 5.9 million bpd , a 350,000-bpd lower forecast than last month ’ s .
“ Uncertainties remain high , mainly surrounding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rollout of vaccines , as well as the structural impact of Covid-19 on consumer behaviors , predominantly in transportation sector , ” OPEC noted .
The cartel faces even greater challenges over the long term thanks to a rush among governments and companies , notably asset managers , to reduce greenhouse gas emissions .
This would have a substantial impact on the oil industry , with some suggesting the world is already past peak oil demand .
OPEC+ is meeting on January 4 to discuss the next steps in its production control deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are eager to start raising production , others are wary of the above-mentioned uncertainty despite the recent jump in prices , largely caused by positive Covid-19 vaccine news .

By Irina Slav
The global oil industry needs some $12.6 trillion in investments through 2045, the secretary-general of OPEC said at a videoconference, adding these investments would be essential for the industry to improve the efficiency of its operations.
“The global oil sector will need cumulative investment of $12.6 trillion in the upstream, midstream and downstream through to 2045,” Mohammed Barkindo said, as quoted by Azertac.
“At OPEC, we recognize the importance of energy efficiency as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while allowing for sustainable development. We also believe that dialogue between consumers and producers is critical to improving efficiency.”
OPEC earlier this month agreed to start boosting oil production—including the production of its non-OPEC partners in the OPEC+ group—by half a million barrels daily beginning in January.
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Also this month, however, the cartel revised down its oil demand forecast for 2021. According to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, demand for crude next year will only increase by 5.9 million bpd, a 350,000-bpd lower forecast than last month’s.
“Uncertainties remain high, mainly surrounding the development of the Covid-19 pandemic and rollout of vaccines, as well as the structural impact of Covid-19 on consumer behaviors, predominantly in transportation sector,” OPEC noted.
The cartel faces even greater challenges over the long term thanks to a rush among governments and companies, notably asset managers, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This would have a substantial impact on the oil industry, with some suggesting the world is already past peak oil demand.
OPEC+ is meeting on January 4 to discuss the next steps in its production control deal. While some members of the cartel are eager to start raising production, others are wary of the above-mentioned uncertainty despite the recent jump in prices, largely caused by positive Covid-19 vaccine news.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--WW3? Hang on Patriots, Trump goes after China

NEW – President Trump signs a bill that could kick Chinese firms off U.S. stock exchanges .
t.co/0udvHtXr4z 230 Chinese @ @ @ @ @ Chinese companies totaling about $ 1.8 trillion in market capitalization — listed on the Nasdaq @ @ @ @ @ , noted the report .
It pointed out that U.S. private equity firms have been @ @ @ @ @ company Trump signs bill that could kick Chinese firms off U.S. stock exchanges WASHINGTON – @ @ @ @ @ signed legislation that would kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges unless they adhere to @ @ @ @ @ White House said .
“ The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act ” bars securities of @ @ @ @ @ on any U.S. exchange if they have failed to comply with the U.S. Public Accounting @ @ @ @ @ for three years in a row .

NEW – President Trump signs a bill that could kick Chinese firms off U.S. stock exchanges. t.co/0udvHtXr4z
230 Chinese companies There are about 230 Chinese companies totaling about $1.8 trillion in market capitalization — listed on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange, noted the report. It pointed out that U.S. private equity firms have been buying out those listed Chinese company
Trump signs bill that could kick Chinese firms off U.S. stock exchanges
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump on Friday signed legislation that would kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges unless they adhere to American auditing standards, the White House said.
“The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” bars securities of foreign companies from being listed on any U.S. exchange if they have failed to comply with the U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board’s audits for three years in a row.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--LOOK what MITCH McCONNELL just TWEETED regarding the VACCINE!

Just received the safe , effective COVID vaccine following continuity-of-government protocols .
Vaccines are how we beat this virus .
@ @ @ @ @ effective COVID vaccine following continuity-of-government protocols .
Vaccines are how we beat this virus .
@ @ @ @ @ for a rescue package including a lot more money for distribution so more Americans can @ @ @ @ @ possible .
pic.twitter.com/kSBhI3EzzM

Just received the safe, effective COVID vaccine following continuity-of-government protocols. Vaccines are how we beat this virus.
Just received the safe, effective COVID vaccine following continuity-of-government protocols. Vaccines are how we beat this virus.
Now back to continue fighting for a rescue package including a lot more money for distribution so more Americans can receive it as fast as possible. pic.twitter.com/kSBhI3EzzM
— Leader McConnell (@senatemajldr) December 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Sen Ron Johnson Blocks $1200 Stimulus Checks

NOW he cares about the deficit when it actually doesn ’ t matter at this point .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ to create the scenario where people would bring out the guillotines and start pulling people @ @ @ @ @ We ’ re already past the point of bringing down the debt .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ .
But don ’ t worry , Ron didn ’ t raise that objection when @ @ @ @ @ their donors .

NOW he cares about the deficit when it actually doesn’t matter at this point. It’s like he’s TRYING to create the scenario where people would bring out the guillotines and start pulling people out into the streets. We’re already past the point of bringing down the debt. It’s impossible without massive inflation. But don’t worry, Ron didn’t raise that objection when they were giving trillions to their donors.
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Senator Sanders also pushing another round of stimulus checks. Much smaller checks are being discussed by bipartisan leaders to keep the plan under $900B while still giving hundreds of billions to smaller biz, etc. — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) December 18, 2020
Hawley said Sanders would make another effort to send the checks, which are capped so wealthier people don't get them, later today. — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) December 18, 2020
Trump has at various times also talked up more checks, but where is he? — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) December 18, 2020
h/t Sotired


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Mask down. Handle dog poo. Flip and mask on again

Mask down .
Handle dog poo .
Flip and mask on again💩pic.twitter.com/DDg0BBxbma

Mask down. Handle dog poo. Flip and mask on again💩pic.twitter.com/DDg0BBxbma
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Why Small Businesses Should Stay Closed Forever!

Lockdown in the Netherlands - all non essential shops , museums , bars etc closed from tomorrow until Jan. 20th

This guys channel needs more views:
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--ATF Decision Could Lead to Biggest Gun Registration, Turn-in Effort in American History

New guidance from the Bureau of Alcohol , Tobacco , Firearms , and Explosives ( ATF ) could put millions of Americans in legal jeopardy .
The ATF published a notice Thursday that could require millions of AR-15 pistols and similar firearms—which are designed with braces that strap on to a shooter ’ s forearm—to be either registered , turned in , destroyed , or dismantled .
But the standards laid out for determining the devices ’ legality , such as caliber or weight , provide no objective measures , and the agency said it may also use undisclosed factors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The agency conceded in the notice that some pistol braces are legal and should not be subject to the registration or destruction requirement .
It said , however , that it could not provide a blanket determination for which pistols , or braces with which they ’ re often equipped , are legal and said it would have to examine each gun “ on a case-by-case basis.
” That means owners of the vast majority of the estimated three to four million AR-15 pistols and similar firearms may have to register with @ @ @

New guidance from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) could put millions of Americans in legal jeopardy.
The ATF published a notice Thursday that could require millions of AR-15 pistols and similar firearms—which are designed with braces that strap on to a shooter’s forearm—to be either registered, turned in, destroyed, or dismantled. But the standards laid out for determining the devices’ legality, such as caliber or weight, provide no objective measures, and the agency said it may also use undisclosed factors to judge the legality of the devices.
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The agency conceded in the notice that some pistol braces are legal and should not be subject to the registration or destruction requirement. It said, however, that it could not provide a blanket determination for which pistols, or braces with which they’re often equipped, are legal and said it would have to examine each gun “on a case-by-case basis.” That means owners of the vast majority of the estimated three to four million AR-15 pistols and similar firearms may have to register with the ATF.
freebeacon.com/latest-news/atf-decision-could-lead-to-biggest-gun-registration-turn-in-effort-in-american-history/


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--HOW HACK WAS INSTALLED: SolarWinds: Why the Sunburst hack is so serious

We ’ ve all seen the pop-ups on our laptops or phones : “ Update is available , click here @ @ @ @ @ re constantly urged to do as we ’ re told because these software updates improve @ @ @ @ @ and removing glitches .
So when , in the spring , a pop-up message hit @ @ @ @ @ using a popular piece of software called SolarWinds , around 18,000 workers in companies and @ @ @ @ @ for their offices .
What they couldn ’ t have known was that the download @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t know either .
The US company had been the victim of a @ @ @ @ @ seen hackers inject a tiny piece of secret code into the company ’ s next @ @ @ @ @ dormant for a couple of weeks , the powerful digital helper sprang to life inside @ @ @ @ @ government , technology and telecom organisations across North America , Europe , Asia and the @ @ @

We’ve all seen the pop-ups on our laptops or phones: “Update is available, click here to download.”
We’re constantly urged to do as we’re told because these software updates improve our apps by boosting cyber-security and removing glitches.
So when, in the spring, a pop-up message hit the screens of IT staff using a popular piece of software called SolarWinds, around 18,000 workers in companies and governments diligently downloaded the update for their offices.
What they couldn’t have known was that the download was booby-trapped.
SolarWinds itself didn’t know either.
The US company had been the victim of a cyber-attack weeks previously that had seen hackers inject a tiny piece of secret code into the company’s next software update.
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After staying dormant for a couple of weeks, the powerful digital helper sprang to life inside thousands of computer networks in government, technology and telecom organisations across North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
www.bbc.com/news/technology-55321643
connected to this
www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55358332
h/t Coastie Patriot


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Dems Block Stimulus After GOP Moves To Strip Fed’s Pandemic Powers

As pandemic relief negotiations continue to stall in Congress , the latest major obstacle has emerged ; a battle over the Fed ’ s ability to channel tens of billions of dollars to state and local governments – a largely-unused provision in the Cares Act which expires on Dec. 31 .
Democrats want to preserve this option for what the Wall Street Journal editorial board describes as a plan “ to use the Fed to go around Congress if they don ’ t control the Senate next year , ” while Republicans – led by Sen. Pat Toomey ( R-PA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 429 billion in Cares Act funding to finance roughly half of the new spending .
According to the report , the Fed only made $ 25 billion in loans and other commitments because the majority of businesses and municipalities were able to borrow more cheaply in the private market .
That Democrats are opposing the Toomey language gives away that their plan is to use the Fed to go around Congress if they don ’ t control the Senate next year .
They ’ re afraid a GOP Senate won ’ t agree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states like Illinois and New Jersey .
They want to use the Fed ’ s municipal and state lending facility , which was stood up this year at the height of the pandemic and market disruption , as the bailout vehicle .
–Wall Street Journal At present , Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has agreed to return the unused portion of the funding to the Treasury , following the request of Secretary Steven Mnuchin .
If the Cares Act is allowed to lapse on Dec. 31 , a Biden Treasury would require a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Journal also notes that after the $ 429 billion is repurposed for Covid relief , the Fed will still control some $ 35 to $ 40 billion as a cushion for various pandemic facilities – which could then be leveraged as much as 10x to lend to cities and states on terms set by the Biden Treasury and the Fed .
Democrats , meanwhile , say the fight is over the Fed ’ s ability to prevent an economic collapse .

As pandemic relief negotiations continue to stall in Congress, the latest major obstacle has emerged; a battle over the Fed’s ability to channel tens of billions of dollars to state and local governments – a largely-unused provision in the Cares Act which expires on Dec. 31.
Democrats want to preserve this option for what the Wall Street Journal editorial board describes as a plan “to use the Fed to go around Congress if they don’t control the Senate next year,” while Republicans – led by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) – want to repurpose approximately $429 billion in Cares Act funding to finance roughly half of the new spending.
According to the report, the Fed only made $25 billion in loans and other commitments because the majority of businesses and municipalities were able to borrow more cheaply in the private market.
That Democrats are opposing the Toomey language gives away that their plan is to use the Fed to go around Congress if they don’t control the Senate next year. They’re afraid a GOP Senate won’t agree to another spending blowout to rescue profligate states like Illinois and New Jersey. They want to use the Fed’s municipal and state lending facility, which was stood up this year at the height of the pandemic and market disruption, as the bailout vehicle. –Wall Street Journal
At present, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has agreed to return the unused portion of the funding to the Treasury, following the request of Secretary Steven Mnuchin. If the Cares Act is allowed to lapse on Dec. 31, a Biden Treasury would require a new appropriation from Congress to restore the programs.
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The Journal also notes that after the $429 billion is repurposed for Covid relief, the Fed will still control some $35 to $40 billion as a cushion for various pandemic facilities – which could then be leveraged as much as 10x to lend to cities and states on terms set by the Biden Treasury and the Fed.
Democrats, meanwhile, say the fight is over the Fed’s ability to prevent an economic collapse.
www.zerohedge.com/political/dems-block-stimulus-after-gop-moves-strip-feds-pandemic-powers


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Get out of NYC NOW! DE BLASIO: “I’d like to say very bluntly: our mission is to redistribute wealth.

Get out of NYC NOW! DE BLASIO: “I’d like to say very bluntly: our mission is to redistribute wealth.”

You are a disgrace…I can only hope the amazing people of NY vote you out of office and you are @ @ @ @ @ again .

You are a disgrace…I can only hope the amazing people of NY vote you out of office and you are never heard or seen from again.
— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 (@chigrl) December 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Digital Pearl Harbor is NOT limited to just the SolarWinds hack: “CISA has evidence of additional in

Digital Pearl Harbor is NOT limited to just the SolarWinds hack: “CISA has evidence of additional initial access vectors, other than the SolarWinds Orion platform; however, these are still being investigated.”

The is the biggest story on the planet right now , but you wouldn ’ t really know that if @ @ @ @ @ propaganda .
The fact that this is already being touted as “ Russian ” in @ @ @ @ @ as it is predictable .

Digital Pearl Harbor is NOT limited to just the SolarWinds hack! "CISA has evidence of additional initial access vectors, other than the SolarWinds Orion platform; however, these are still being investigated."t.co/9D3oxtx2YQ pic.twitter.com/gRdyVeQhhm — Ron (@CodeMonkeyZ) December 18, 2020
The is the biggest story on the planet right now, but you wouldn’t really know that if you only consumed Mockingbird Media propaganda.
The fact that this is already being touted as “Russian” in the media is as disturbing as it is predictable.
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h/t axolotl_peyotl


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Supreme Court Punts Census Lawsuit into January, No Quantifiable Harm Currently Appears

The New York lawsuit against the Trump administration -over disqualification of unlawful aliens in the 2020 election- was dismissed today by the Supreme Court [ full pdf here ] under procedural grounds .
However , that said , there is a clear indication where the outcome is likely to end-up once the court takes up the case next year .
The high court noted no harm currently exists because the census report hasn ’ t been delivered to congress to begin the representative apportionment .
The ruling was 6-3 on process , with justices Elena Kagan , Sonia Sotomayor and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case .
Justice Breyer wanted to fire a shot into the administration by outlining a liberal opinion/perspective of the issue : … ” The plain meaning of the governing statutes , decades of historical practice , and uniform interpretations from all three branches of Government demonstrate that aliens without lawful status can not be excluded from the decennial census solely on account of that status , ” Breyer wrote .
“ The Government ’ s effort to remove them from the apportionment base is unlawful , and I believe this Court should say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority part should alarm everyone : [ … ] “ Everyone agrees by now that the Government can not feasibly implement the memorandum by excluding the estimated 10.5 million aliens without lawful status , ” the opinion later said .
“ Yet the only evidence speaking to the predicted change in apportionment unrealistically assumes that the President will exclude the entire undocumented population.
” ( read more ) In essence what the court is saying is they will not support unlawful aliens being excluded from the census and , as a consequence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early for them to decide because the harm has not been incurred .
This is an alarming position when cast against the recent SCOTUS decisions on 2020 election .
Texas has no standing to file suit based on harm from election fraud , the voices of Texas voters are moot to the court ; and now the same court is saying any unlawful alien residing in the United States should be granted a voice in government .

The New York lawsuit against the Trump administration -over disqualification of unlawful aliens in the 2020 election- was dismissed today by the Supreme Court [full pdf here] under procedural grounds.
However, that said, there is a clear indication where the outcome is likely to end-up once the court takes up the case next year.
The high court noted no harm currently exists because the census report hasn’t been delivered to congress to begin the representative apportionment.
The ruling was 6-3 on process, with justices Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor and Stephen Breyer signing a dissent on the case. Justice Breyer wanted to fire a shot into the administration by outlining a liberal opinion/perspective of the issue:
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…”The plain meaning of the governing statutes, decades of historical practice, and uniform interpretations from all three branches of Government demonstrate that aliens without lawful status cannot be excluded from the decennial census solely on account of that status,” Breyer wrote. “The Government’s effort to remove them from the apportionment base is unlawful, and I believe this Court should say so.”
Beyond the liberal argument this majority part should alarm everyone:
[…] “Everyone agrees by now that the Government cannot feasibly implement the memorandum by excluding the estimated 10.5 million aliens without lawful status,” the opinion later said. “Yet the only evidence speaking to the predicted change in apportionment unrealistically assumes that the President will exclude the entire undocumented population.” (read more)
In essence what the court is saying is they will not support unlawful aliens being excluded from the census and, as a consequence, congressional representation. It is just too early for them to decide because the harm has not been incurred.
This is an alarming position when cast against the recent SCOTUS decisions on 2020 election. Texas has no standing to file suit based on harm from election fraud, the voices of Texas voters are moot to the court; and now the same court is saying any unlawful alien residing in the United States should be granted a voice in government.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Coca-Cola to cut 12 percent of U.S. workforce

• Coca-Cola will cut about 2,200 jobs as part of its workforce restructuring plan .
• The beverage giant accelerated @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus pandemic .
• In total , Coke expects to spend $ 350 million @ @ @ @ @ severance costs .
Coca-Cola will cut about 2,200 jobs in its global workforce as part @ @ @ @ @ that was accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic .
In the United States , Coke will @ @ @ @ @ eliminate about 1,200 jobs , accounting for about 12 % of the workforce in its @ @ @ @ @ was first reported by The Wall Street Journal .
At the end of 2019 , @ @ @ @ @ global employees .
But the pandemic battered its revenue and raised costs for the beverage @ @ @ @ @ its sales typically comes from consumers drinking its beverages away from home .
In the @ @ @ @ @ sales slid 9 % .

Coca-Cola will cut about 2,200 jobs as part of its workforce restructuring plan.
The beverage giant accelerated its reorganization in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
In total, Coke expects to spend $350 million to $550 million on severance costs.
Coca-Cola will cut about 2,200 jobs in its global workforce as part of a broader restructuring plan that was accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic.
In the United States, Coke will use layoffs and buyouts to eliminate about 1,200 jobs, accounting for about 12% of the workforce in its home market. The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
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At the end of 2019, the Atlanta-based company had 86,200 global employees. But the pandemic battered its revenue and raised costs for the beverage giant. About half of its sales typically comes from consumers drinking its beverages away from home. In the third quarter, its net sales slid 9%.
www.cnbc.com/2020/12/17/coca-cola-will-cut-2200-jobs-worldwide-as-part-of-restructuring-plan.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--LIN WOOD: This may be most important tweet of my life.

This may be most important tweet of my life. Chief Justice John Roberts is corrupt & should resign immediately. Justice Stephen Breyer should also resign immediately. They are “anti-Trumpers” dedicated to preventing public from knowing TRUTH of @realDonaldTrump re-election. — Lin Wood (@LLinWood) December 17, 2020
In discussing @realDonaldTrump in phone conversation in 8/19, Justice John Roberts stated that he would make sure “the mother f#*ker would never be re-elected.” Roberts engaged in phone conversations with Justice Stephen Breyer discussing how to work to get Trump voted out. — Lin Wood (@LLinWood) December 17, 2020
Corruption & deceit have reached most powerful office in our country – the Chief Justice of U.S. Supreme Court. This is a sad day for our country but a day on which we must wake up & face the truth. Roberts is reason that SCOTUS has not acted on election cases. Others involved. — Lin Wood (@LLinWood) December 17, 2020
I have long had questions about “the John Roberts” on Jeffrey Epstein private jet flight logs. I suspected it was our Chief Justice. MSM has shown no interest in investigating issue to find TRUTH. America is now entitled to know the answer. Every lie will be revealed. Pray. — Lin Wood (@LLinWood) December 17, 2020
I have loved law almost my entire life. I love TRUTH: the good, bad, & ugly. I have revealed ugly TRUTH today about our Supreme Court. I know that I will be attacked & maybe worse. But I also love my country & freedom. We must ALL face the TRUTH.@realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/avEO1tDSHQ — Lin Wood (@LLinWood) December 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-19--Cisagov just issued a new warning & threat from SolarWind attacks

@ CISAgov `` has evidence of additional initial access vectors , other than the SolarWinds Orion platform … these are @ @ @ @ @

@CISAgov "has evidence of additional initial access vectors, other than the SolarWinds Orion platform … these are still being investigated."
— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-18--V-shaped Housing Recovery! US Housing Starts Rise 1.2% MoM (Apartment Starts Up 23% MoM)

US housing starts rise 1.2 % in November , revealing a V-shaped recovery in housing .
With a big assist @ @ @ @ @ The biggest winner in MoM terms ?
The northeast !
The big loser ?
The @ @

by confoundedinterest17
US housing starts rise 1.2% in November, revealing a V-shaped recovery in housing. With a big assist from falling interest rates.
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1-unit starts (single family detached) housing starts rose 7.98% MoM in November, while 5+ unit (apartment) starts rose 22.84% MoM.
The biggest winner in MoM terms? The northeast! The big loser? The South!