investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--US Debt To GDP Will Hit New All-Time High In 2020

1- The Coronavirus ain ’ t no black plague or Spanish-flu .
Those were true killers that wiped out young and old without regard for the strength or age of the afflicted .
In fact , Spanish-flu was attracted to the young adults above all else .
2- However , Coronavirus has come along when the 1st world is at its most vulnerable .
Never have more elderly been artificially kept alive beyond their natural expiration dates by drugs and our 1st world medical system promoting quantity over quality .
Never has the 1st world been more obese and suffered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
Hypertension , Type-2 diabetes , heart disease , smoking / vaping lung related issues , drug abuse , etc .
The 1st world has the best medicine in world history but capacity is limited and the vulnerable hordes will overwhelm our hospitals .
BTW – one of the most vulnerable of populations are the truckers responsible for maintaining transportation…this weak link should be very worrisome .
3- In the end , I suggest a rather middling grade virus will likely hunt the unprecedented number of weak , infirm , and vulnerable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the past .
Meanwhile , the strong and healthy will likely find this like a very bad flu year…but due to the overwhelming # ’ s requiring the medical system , even many of the strong that would have survived with available care will likely perish .
While the 2nd and 3rd world aren ’ t nearly as old , overweight , and vulnerable as the 1st world…unfortunately they don ’ t have the medical systems to cope with this and the result will likely be very bad .
And what of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It appears disjointed , half-hearted , and entirely left up to every state , city , county , company , and ultimately the individual as to how to appropriately respond…The only sure thing is Congress and the President willing to throw good money after bad .
In 2020 , the federal government will spend like drunken sailors…borrowing from our future selves to pay our present selves .
The chart below details the rising public vs. Intragovernmental debt ( SS , etc . )
against the inverse instigator of debt , the Federal Funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the annual change in the under 60yr/old population ( green line ) and over 60yr/old population ( yellow line ) contrasted with the Federal funds rate ( black dashed line ) , and public debt ( red columns ) vs. Intragovernmental debt ( blue columns ) .
Not so hard to see this is a demographic issue at its core .
Obviously , I ’ m estimating the 2020 federal deficit to end up around $ 2.8 trillion of which likely 100 % + will be public debt ( little to no IG @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next five years look like ?
The demographics will slightly shift as the growth of the elderly population decelerates but the projection for the under 60 year-old population is a gentle upturn .
But this upturn is highly unlikely as it assumes rising births ( births continue declining ) and high rates of immigration will return ( 2019 saw a huge deceleration in immigration due to border enforcement…and now with Coronavirus , immigration may be a net zero ) and ongoing strong economic activity ( lol ) .
So , the under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rather than return to growth .
Of course , federal debt will be surging to cover unfunded liabilities , unemployment , bailouts , etc .
etc .
while Intragovermental funds turn to a net seller .
Anyway , this signifies that 2020 will likely be the year that federal debt to GDP surpasses the previous peak set in WWII .
This coincides with the decline in the consumer ( and base of credit creation ) that is the working age population .
But unfortunately , the debt will continue to blow out against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chart below assumes 1.5 % GDP growth through 2025 versus constant $ 2 trillion annual deficits after the 2020 $ 2.8 trillion blowout .
While the under 65-year old population was projected to return to minimal growth , the Coronavirus is likely to turn that projected growth to decline and further decelerating potential economic activity .
And just to put this debt in context , below I show the relatively constant of under 20 year-old US population ( the future that is responsible for servicing the debt ) versus the rapidly growing federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into personal terms against America ’ s future .
While this population is not yet old enough to vote , they are sure to feel the full impact of the debt .
Of course , over the course of their lives , they can never repay the debt nor can they even honestly service the interest payments .
Instead they continue to see Federal Reserve policies rewarding the banks , large institutions , the asset holders , and the elderly .
But this is only federal debt…if we added the soaring unfunded liabilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollar amounts .
This debt is like an ever heavier weight spread across a population that isn ’ t growing…and eventually the policies of avoidance will crush whatever is under it .
Lastly , putting this into the global picture…The chart below of UN population data shows that before the Coronavirus , it just so happens that 2020 was year when the 1st world working age population was set to begin its secular decline .
The population that consumes 70 % of all commodities , 75 % of all exports , and 80 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begins a secular decline .
Africa and Asia ( excluding East Asia that is part of the 1st world ) are reliant on the growth of the 1st world for their own growth…without 1st world growth , the 2nd and 3rd world economies are set to fall hard .
Post-Coronavirus , the situation will be 2x or 5x or 10x worse .
Global depression is imminent and will continue for an indefinite period as depopulation , deleveraging , and decline are the natural state of things .
Cast off the lifeboats…the Titanic is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in small boats on very rough seas from here on .
This was going to happen eventually , Coronavirus has just accelerated the timeline .
The global demographics behind this , the impact on energy consumption , the interest rates , and why this is inescapable is detailed from UN data ( HERE ) .
I am not saying we don ’ t still have choices , just no happy choices .
We can take actions to avoid worst case scenarios , prioritize the critical over desirable , and prepare for a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fighting the last war .

Some thoughts on Coronavirus…
1- The Coronavirus ain’t no black plague or Spanish-flu. Those were true killers that wiped out young and old without regard for the strength or age of the afflicted. In fact, Spanish-flu was attracted to the young adults above all else.
2- However, Coronavirus has come along when the 1st world is at its most vulnerable. Never have more elderly been artificially kept alive beyond their natural expiration dates by drugs and our 1st world medical system promoting quantity over quality. Never has the 1st world been more obese and suffered from more “lifestyle” diseases than now. Hypertension, Type-2 diabetes, heart disease, smoking / vaping lung related issues, drug abuse, etc. The 1st world has the best medicine in world history but capacity is limited and the vulnerable hordes will overwhelm our hospitals. BTW – one of the most vulnerable of populations are the truckers responsible for maintaining transportation…this weak link should be very worrisome.
3- In the end, I suggest a rather middling grade virus will likely hunt the unprecedented number of weak, infirm, and vulnerable and kill on par with real killers of the past. Meanwhile, the strong and healthy will likely find this like a very bad flu year…but due to the overwhelming #’s requiring the medical system, even many of the strong that would have survived with available care will likely perish. While the 2nd and 3rd world aren’t nearly as old, overweight, and vulnerable as the 1st world…unfortunately they don’t have the medical systems to cope with this and the result will likely be very bad.
And what of the federal response to this pandemic? It appears disjointed, half-hearted, and entirely left up to every state, city, county, company, and ultimately the individual as to how to appropriately respond…The only sure thing is Congress and the President willing to throw good money after bad.
In 2020, the federal government will spend like drunken sailors…borrowing from our future selves to pay our present selves. The chart below details the rising public vs. Intragovernmental debt (SS, etc.) against the inverse instigator of debt, the Federal Funds rate.
Just for giggles, below the annual change in the under 60yr/old population (green line) and over 60yr/old population (yellow line) contrasted with the Federal funds rate (black dashed line), and public debt (red columns) vs. Intragovernmental debt (blue columns). Not so hard to see this is a demographic issue at its core. Obviously, I’m estimating the 2020 federal deficit to end up around $2.8 trillion of which likely 100%+ will be public debt (little to no IG net purchasing).
And what will the next five years look like? The demographics will slightly shift as the growth of the elderly population decelerates but the projection for the under 60 year-old population is a gentle upturn. But this upturn is highly unlikely as it assumes rising births (births continue declining) and high rates of immigration will return (2019 saw a huge deceleration in immigration due to border enforcement…and now with Coronavirus, immigration may be a net zero) and ongoing strong economic activity (lol). So, the under 60 year-old population declines will likely accelerate rather than return to growth. Of course, federal debt will be surging to cover unfunded liabilities, unemployment, bailouts, etc. etc. while Intragovermental funds turn to a net seller.
Anyway, this signifies that 2020 will likely be the year that federal debt to GDP surpasses the previous peak set in WWII. This coincides with the decline in the consumer (and base of credit creation) that is the working age population.
But unfortunately, the debt will continue to blow out against even any modest GDP growth. The chart below assumes 1.5% GDP growth through 2025 versus constant $2 trillion annual deficits after the 2020 $2.8 trillion blowout. While the under 65-year old population was projected to return to minimal growth, the Coronavirus is likely to turn that projected growth to decline and further decelerating potential economic activity.
And just to put this debt in context, below I show the relatively constant of under 20 year-old US population (the future that is responsible for servicing the debt) versus the rapidly growing federal debt.
Finally, putting the debt into personal terms against America’s future. While this population is not yet old enough to vote, they are sure to feel the full impact of the debt. Of course, over the course of their lives, they can never repay the debt nor can they even honestly service the interest payments. Instead they continue to see Federal Reserve policies rewarding the banks, large institutions, the asset holders, and the elderly. But this is only federal debt…if we added the soaring unfunded liabilities, you can likely quintuple those per-capita dollar amounts.
This debt is like an ever heavier weight spread across a population that isn’t growing…and eventually the policies of avoidance will crush whatever is under it.
Global Outlook
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! Lastly, putting this into the global picture…The chart below of UN population data shows that before the Coronavirus, it just so happens that 2020 was year when the 1st world working age population was set to begin its secular decline. The population that consumes 70% of all commodities, 75% of all exports, and 80% of all the income/savings/access to credit begins a secular decline. Africa and Asia (excluding East Asia that is part of the 1st world) are reliant on the growth of the 1st world for their own growth…without 1st world growth, the 2nd and 3rd world economies are set to fall hard. Post-Coronavirus, the situation will be 2x or 5x or 10x worse. Global depression is imminent and will continue for an indefinite period as depopulation, deleveraging, and decline are the natural state of things. Cast off the lifeboats…the Titanic is going down and we’ll be in small boats on very rough seas from here on. This was going to happen eventually, Coronavirus has just accelerated the timeline. The global demographics behind this, the impact on energy consumption, the interest rates, and why this is inescapable is detailed from UN data (HERE). I am not saying we don’t still have choices, just no happy choices. We can take actions to avoid worst case scenarios, prioritize the critical over desirable, and prepare for a new and different future…or we can just continue fighting the last war.
Invest accordingly (WTF?!?)


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Two Ways the Coronavirus Can Take Us

Two Ways the Coronavirus Can Take Us

We ’ re now in week two of serious disruption as a result of the coronavirus , and the markets are in the middle of what ’ s looking like an extremely steep crash .
Only 1987 can compare , and those circumstances were totally different .
I ’ ve spent the week trying to sort out what we should expect to happen in the near- and mid-term projections .
Most crashes usually take out about 42 % in two months .
This one has seen losses of 30-32 % in just one .
So we should expect the downswing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The way I see it , one of the following two scenarios will play out .
• We ’ ll get a bounce early next week followed by another sharp downturn , on our way to that 42 % dip .
• We go sideways for another couple of weeks before we start our downward run .
So it ’ s either going to be a couple days or a couple weeks , but it ’ s going to happen no matter what .
I ’ ve also been looking at safe havens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a short-term crisis .
You ’ re going to see a lot of volatility and should expect that to continue through whatever bailouts get distributed , and then Trump ’ s efforts to pump up the economy before the election in November .
But I get into that and the coronavirus ’ growth more generally later in this week ’ s rant .
Remember , the first crash comes sudden and hard , and that ’ s what we ’ ve been for the past week or so .
But you can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet .
There ’ s still a ways for us to continue downward .

By Harry Dent
We’re now in week two of serious disruption as a result of the coronavirus, and the markets are in the middle of what’s looking like an extremely steep crash. Only 1987 can compare, and those circumstances were totally different.
I’ve spent the week trying to sort out what we should expect to happen in the near- and mid-term projections. Most crashes usually take out about 42% in two months. This one has seen losses of 30-32% in just one. So we should expect the downswing to continue, but not immediately. The way I see it, one of the following two scenarios will play out.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We’ll get a bounce early next week followed by another sharp downturn, on our way to that 42% dip. We go sideways for another couple of weeks before we start our downward run.
So it’s either going to be a couple days or a couple weeks, but it’s going to happen no matter what.
I’ve also been looking at safe havens for investing during what’s really a short-term crisis. You’re going to see a lot of volatility and should expect that to continue through whatever bailouts get distributed, and then Trump’s efforts to pump up the economy before the election in November. But I get into that and the coronavirus’ growth more generally later in this week’s rant.
Remember, the first crash comes sudden and hard, and that’s what we’ve been for the past week or so. But you cannot forget that the crash is not over yet. There’s still a ways for us to continue downward.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--CDC Director Robert Redfield says some previous flu deaths in US were misdiagnosed and actually due

CDC Director Robert Redfield says some previous flu deaths in US were misdiagnosed and actually due to COVID-19

This has me thinking , how long has COVID-19 been in the US ?
He doesn ’ t specify time-frame @ @ @ @ @ could they have been from before 2020 ?
Makes things confusing in regards to where @ @ @ @ @ from/how long has been around

This has me thinking, how long has COVID-19 been in the US? He doesn’t specify time-frame of those misdiagnoses, but could they have been from before 2020?
Makes things confusing in regards to where the hell this virus came from/how long has been around
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t marcusjackson1995


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Devastation In the Oil Field

Devastation In the Oil Field

Fixed income investments dropped like rocks on Wednesday as investors wondered if a trillion-dollar stimulus package will explode the deficit , causing rising interest rates , and also worried that debtors won ’ t be able to pay their bills .
Even high-quality bond funds were crushed as investors squeezed through the exit doors .
The Dow fell below its closing level on the day President Trump took office , 18,927 , before rebounding to finish the day at 18,898 .
Cruise ship stocks piled up on the rocks , and airline stocks crashed .
But nothing , nothing matched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just as the fears over Covid-19 were taking off , the Saudis and Russians got into a tiff over cutting oil production .
The Sauds wanted to cut by another 1.5 million barrels per day , while the Russians didn ’ t want to cut at all .
When the two sides couldn ’ t come to an agreement , the Saudis informed the world they would start pumping all the oil they can .
They intend to increase production from 9.5 million barrels per day to 13 million on April 1 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to world capacity when we ’ re in the midst of a global economic recession .
The price of oil reached $ 64 on January 7 .
Yesterday it fell to $ 21 , down more than 24 % , before rebounding a touch to finish the day at $ 22.39 , down almost 17 % .
At $ 21 , oil was cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than the average price in 1972 , or $ 3.39 per barrel , before the Arabian oil embargo .
Once the embargo happened , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The shock sent waves of inflation through the U.S. economy for years .
Today , incredibly low oil prices will also ripple through the economy , and that ’ s part of the Saudi/Russian plan .
They might be fighting each other , but both have an eye on the U.S. fracking industry .
OPEC , led by Saudi Arabia , and a group of producers led by Russia , have been holding down production since late 2016 .
They want oil prices to go higher .
But Americans don ’ t play @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they can .
The U.S. now produces more oil than any other nation , at least until April 1 , and so it took market share from OPEC , Russia , and the other producers .
If the current fight over oil ends up putting a lot of U.S. fracking companies out of business , well , that ’ s a joyful side benefit to the Saudis and Russians .
But it will hurt here at home .
We ’ ll get the benefit of sub- $ 2 gasoline , and truckers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuel as a cost will get a bump in profits as the price of a key input drops .
But many companies in the energy sector carry a lot of debt , which Harry has mentioned many times .
It ’ s unlikely that their lenders will come to their rescue this time .
Expect companies to shut down rigs , lay off workers , and go bankrupt .
The saving grace in the oil patch is that low prices eventually drive out enough production that prices rise again , there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will take .
If we get some therapeutic for the coronavirus , or a “ flattening of the curve , ” as people are describing it among those infected , then investors will start to price in a return to normal economic activity .
If the Saudis and Russians call a truce in their market share war , that would also help .
In the most positive scenario , we ’ d get both .
In the worst case , we get neither .
If we don ’ t get relief , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long , dismal summer in Texas .

By Rodney Johnson
Is this capitulation?
Fixed income investments dropped like rocks on Wednesday as investors wondered if a trillion-dollar stimulus package will explode the deficit, causing rising interest rates, and also worried that debtors won’t be able to pay their bills. Even high-quality bond funds were crushed as investors squeezed through the exit doors.
The Dow fell below its closing level on the day President Trump took office, 18,927, before rebounding to finish the day at 18,898. Cruise ship stocks piled up on the rocks, and airline stocks crashed. But nothing, nothing matched the devastation in the oil field.
Just as the fears over Covid-19 were taking off, the Saudis and Russians got into a tiff over cutting oil production. The Sauds wanted to cut by another 1.5 million barrels per day, while the Russians didn’t want to cut at all.
When the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement, the Saudis informed the world they would start pumping all the oil they can. They intend to increase production from 9.5 million barrels per day to 13 million on April 1. This will add more than 3% to world capacity when we’re in the midst of a global economic recession.
The price of oil reached $64 on January 7. Yesterday it fell to $21, down more than 24%, before rebounding a touch to finish the day at $22.39, down almost 17%. At $21, oil was cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than the average price in 1972, or $3.39 per barrel, before the Arabian oil embargo.
Once the embargo happened, the price of oil jumped 300%. The shock sent waves of inflation through the U.S. economy for years.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Today, incredibly low oil prices will also ripple through the economy, and that’s part of the Saudi/Russian plan. They might be fighting each other, but both have an eye on the U.S. fracking industry.
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and a group of producers led by Russia, have been holding down production since late 2016. They want oil prices to go higher. But Americans don’t play that game; they keep pumping all they can. The U.S. now produces more oil than any other nation, at least until April 1, and so it took market share from OPEC, Russia, and the other producers.
If the current fight over oil ends up putting a lot of U.S. fracking companies out of business, well, that’s a joyful side benefit to the Saudis and Russians.
But it will hurt here at home.
We’ll get the benefit of sub-$2 gasoline, and truckers, delivery companies, and anyone who counts fuel as a cost will get a bump in profits as the price of a key input drops. But many companies in the energy sector carry a lot of debt, which Harry has mentioned many times. It’s unlikely that their lenders will come to their rescue this time. Expect companies to shut down rigs, lay off workers, and go bankrupt.
The saving grace in the oil patch is that low prices eventually drive out enough production that prices rise again, there’s just no way to know how long that will take. If we get some therapeutic for the coronavirus, or a “flattening of the curve,” as people are describing it among those infected, then investors will start to price in a return to normal economic activity. If the Saudis and Russians call a truce in their market share war, that would also help. In the most positive scenario, we’d get both. In the worst case, we get neither.
If we don’t get relief, it’s going to be a long, dismal summer in Texas.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--COVID19/CRASH2: Why the élite solutions are merely next year’s problems

As yet more fiat cash suddenly appeared in the money tree orchard yesterday , scrumpers threw it at stock markets to little or no avail .
Briefed on top secret Coronavirus news ten days ago , two US Republican senators went straight out and sold millions of Dollars in shares before the Crash , so they ’ re alright Jack .
Meanwhile , new draconian measures were introduced that will lessen immunity levels , but disguise the disgraceful mess that is lack of infrastructural investment in health services .
But allegedly , They Work for Us .
On Wednesday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and its futures overnight suggested a new plunge yeserday .
Instead , it rose 2 % in the first two hours…but then closed under 1 % .
NYSE veterans described the atmosphere as “ Quietly resigned ” and “ Eerily fearful ” .
It took Frufru Lagarde precisely six days to do her first volte-face and launch a €750 billion ECB “ rescue package ” .
The eurostoxx index rose 2.9 % and the Dax by 2 % .
Like most people , the new ECB boss has realised that Brussels has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So that ’ s reassuring , then .
It was confirmed yesterday morning that Michel Barnier had tested positive for COVID19 – the best excuse the EU has yet to come up with to delay Britain ’ s exit further .
I am at best dubious about the veracity of this “ news ” ; perhaps the virus was aiming at Verhofstadt , and missed .
Medical staff in Brussels are concerned that , should Monsieur Barnier expire , very few of those monitoring his condition will notice any difference in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Andrew Bailey cut interest rates again today ( that ’ s more than at any point since 1694 ) and the FTSE rose 1.4 % .
To sum up , what we have now is Einstein ’ s definition of madness , viz , “ Doing the same thing over and over in the hope of a different result ” .
Muddled neoliberal monetarists continue to cut rates and launch new QEs .
But Lagarde must have hoped that three quarters of a trillion euros in bond buying would produce rather more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what Bailey expected from the second rate cut in three days , I have no idea .
Desperate not to give “ the investment community ” any kind of safe harbour from the boiling waves , in the last ten working days , the prospering cheats have rigged the CB interbank gold price by $ 200 downwards .
In an unintentionally hilarious observation on Wednesday , the FT called this ‘ counter-intuitive ’ ; that ’ s a little like saying Spring mountain ice melting upwards is ‘ an intriguing phenomenon ’ .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue to smile : the world will buy it at almost any price .
What the central banks are handing out yet again is more parcels from the grab-sack .
But what ’ s left in the perma-Christmas grotto is now almost entirely sawdust .
This is not good news ; in fact , it ’ s very bad news indeed .
You can ’ t get out of jail by bribing the warders with sawdust .
It ’ s a by-product sometimes useful in packaging : but as a replacement for salt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Imperial Roman “ payments ” to the marauding legions .
Only one question now remains : who ’ s going to pay to clear up this mess ?
You will be unsurprised to learn that the answer is “ us ” .
From the day her ECB appointment was announced , Christine Lagarde has been seeding the barren financialised landscape with disturbing statements like , “ In a crisis , what do want – a roof over your head , or a healthy savings account ?
” This represents the sort of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guillotine members of her obscenely privileged class .
As a bloke who worked hard and successfully to help manufacturers and retailers employ people ( in a 35 year comms career ) my riposte to Lagarde is “ Both , you cheeky fake-tanned tart ” .
Let ’ s stop pussy-footing around this one : we are weeks – perhaps only days – away from major bank collapses and sovereign defaults .
Tale your pick – Deutsche , Italy , Repo loans and now Bond carnage – the edifice is collapsing .
There were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ glitches ” leading to customers being unable to withdraw funds via ATMs .
Two days ago , US banking regulators were reported to be ‘ considering loosening bank liquidity rules to boost loan volume ’ .
Yet again , a debt-dependence crisis being treated with more debt…but the network floating this lunacy ( CNBC ) could not resist inserting ‘ in the face of this Coronavirus emergency ’ .
If you want my view on this manufactured emergency , see yesterday ’ s Slogpost .
But I wonder how many of you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these days can not preface any reference to COVID19 without the words ‘ deadly virus ’ .
Net-net , this virus is deadly across demographics at the level of 0.6 % .
I ’ m not here to justify familial loss : I ’ m here to say , “ For God ’ s sake , can we please just review the data and then wonder why the Alternative States are trying to frighten us into acquiessence in totalitarian serfdom ” .
The real beauty of having a pandemic to hype and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , after a while , it becomes impossible to separate them .
This leads to spin , obfuscation and then downright lies .
Without the last thirty years of news IABATO* and conformist educational values , such a humungous con wouldn ’ t have been possible .
However , if one puts these latter developments into the context of economic events since 2003 , the Hoodwinking Factor really has levelled up to Warp Factor 9 .
I can only give you an anthropologically informed view on what has happened .
It is this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out by the authorities on Covid19/Crash2 is simply a continuation of the confused and unnatural fantasies that have led to most Western societies being incurably divided along the lines of untenable belief systems .
That process has now produced a docile electorate ready and willing to believe any level of complete tosh .
Examining that extrapolation in more detail : • Demonising the Chinese for their apparent “ crimes ” against world trade and the Wuhan outbreak is just another level of division .
On top of that , we are now divided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ self-distancing ’ , by viewing every cough with suspicion , and every old person ’ s sneeze as a direct attack upon us .
This process began with a campaign of deriding ‘ greedy ’ baby-boomers of ( a ) hogging all the wealth and ( b ) acting as leeches on the back of young people who “ have to look after ” them .
It ’ s utter drivel : all State pension and welfare systems rely on that model…and the young benefit as they grow old .
• The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into an admiration for the unnatural means there is no longer a social bedrock aware of the fact that milk comes from cows , not bottles and tetrapacks .
The entire LGBTQ phenomenon requires every fellow-traveller with its narcissistic ( and baseless ) assumptions to ignore every sexuality statistic in general – and the reality of democracy as a majority system in particular .
But in the COVID19 context , the result is a refusal to accept that a 0.6 % overall death-rate is preferable to a lower death statistic that leaves 50 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• The self-isolation model now adopted by both Macron and Johnson will not see off Covid19 : all it will achieve is a reduced level of embaressment for such neoliberals when their poor investment in public health comes to light .
We have lost the ability to weigh consequences and then take tough decisions : rather , we prefer to dramatise every situation….and then admire the politicians who have “ solved ” a problem that never existed in the first place .
I am reminded of the old gag in which a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is spreading yellow dust everywhere .
“ To keep the crocodiles at bay , ” the Parky replies .
“ But there aren ’ t any crocodiles at large in London , ” the citizen observes .
When the élite-controlled media finally tell you it is your duty to lose everything in order to save the human race , it would be as well to bear that gag in mind .
As bourses collapse , unrepayable debt accumulates and banks fail , the media will continue to ratchet up the Big Lie that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appeared ” .
What we are going to see then is the long-trailered appearance of the global bail-in .
I so desperately want this to be the point at which the self-interested , smug conservative tendency in Western electorates says , “ No…you are not separating me from my money because you failed to prosecute the guilty Masters of the Universe ” .
Will they awake from their torpor to do that ?
The Jury is out .

by John Ward
As yet more fiat cash suddenly appeared in the money tree orchard yesterday, scrumpers threw it at stock markets to little or no avail. Briefed on top secret Coronavirus news ten days ago, two US Republican senators went straight out and sold millions of Dollars in shares before the Crash, so they’re alright Jack.
Meanwhile, new draconian measures were introduced that will lessen immunity levels, but disguise the disgraceful mess that is lack of infrastructural investment in health services.
But allegedly, They Work for Us.
On Wednesday, the Dow fell a further 25%, and its futures overnight suggested a new plunge yeserday. Instead, it rose 2% in the first two hours…but then closed under 1%. NYSE veterans described the atmosphere as “Quietly resigned” and “Eerily fearful”.
It took Frufru Lagarde precisely six days to do her first volte-face and launch a €750 billion ECB “rescue package”. The eurostoxx index rose 2.9% and the Dax by 2%. Like most people, the new ECB boss has realised that Brussels has gone catatonic, and will do nothing. So that’s reassuring, then.
It was confirmed yesterday morning that Michel Barnier had tested positive for COVID19 – the best excuse the EU has yet to come up with to delay Britain’s exit further. I am at best dubious about the veracity of this “news”; perhaps the virus was aiming at Verhofstadt, and missed. Medical staff in Brussels are concerned that, should Monsieur Barnier expire, very few of those monitoring his condition will notice any difference in his demeanour.
New Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey cut interest rates again today (that’s more than at any point since 1694) and the FTSE rose 1.4%.
To sum up, what we have now is Einstein’s definition of madness, viz, “Doing the same thing over and over in the hope of a different result”. Muddled neoliberal monetarists continue to cut rates and launch new QEs. But Lagarde must have hoped that three quarters of a trillion euros in bond buying would produce rather more than we’ve seen. As to what Bailey expected from the second rate cut in three days, I have no idea.
Desperate not to give “the investment community” any kind of safe harbour from the boiling waves, in the last ten working days, the prospering cheats have rigged the CB interbank gold price by $200 downwards. In an unintentionally hilarious observation on Wednesday, the FT called this ‘counter-intuitive’; that’s a little like saying Spring mountain ice melting upwards is ‘an intriguing phenomenon’.
Meanwhile, owners of real bullion can continue to smile: the world will buy it at almost any price.
What the central banks are handing out yet again is more parcels from the grab-sack. But what’s left in the perma-Christmas grotto is now almost entirely sawdust.
This is not good news; in fact, it’s very bad news indeed. You can’t get out of jail by bribing the warders with sawdust. It’s a by-product sometimes useful in packaging: but as a replacement for salt, it isn’t up there with Imperial Roman “payments” to the marauding legions.
Only one question now remains: who’s going to pay to clear up this mess? You will be unsurprised to learn that the answer is “us”.
From the day her ECB appointment was announced, Christine Lagarde has been seeding the barren financialised landscape with disturbing statements like, “In a crisis, what do want – a roof over your head, or a healthy savings account?”
This represents the sort of brass neck that makes it difficult to guillotine members of her obscenely privileged class. As a bloke who worked hard and successfully to help manufacturers and retailers employ people (in a 35 year comms career) my riposte to Lagarde is “Both, you cheeky fake-tanned tart”.
Let’s stop pussy-footing around this one: we are weeks – perhaps only days – away from major bank collapses and sovereign defaults. Tale your pick – Deutsche, Italy, Repo loans and now Bond carnage – the edifice is collapsing. There were reports yesterday evening from Austria of bank “glitches” leading to customers being unable to withdraw funds via ATMs.
Two days ago, US banking regulators were reported to be ‘considering loosening bank liquidity rules to boost loan volume’. Yet again, a debt-dependence crisis being treated with more debt…but the network floating this lunacy (CNBC) could not resist inserting ‘in the face of this Coronavirus emergency’.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you want my view on this manufactured emergency, see yesterday’s Slogpost.
But I wonder how many of you have noticed how the MSM in general these days cannot preface any reference to COVID19 without the words ‘deadly virus’. Net-net, this virus is deadly across demographics at the level of 0.6%. I’m not here to justify familial loss: I’m here to say, “For God’s sake, can we please just review the data and then wonder why the Alternative States are trying to frighten us into acquiessence in totalitarian serfdom”.
The real beauty of having a pandemic to hype and a depraved fiat money-machine to rationalise is that, after a while, it becomes impossible to separate them. This leads to spin, obfuscation and then downright lies.
Without the last thirty years of news IABATO* and conformist educational values, such a humungous con wouldn’t have been possible. However, if one puts these latter developments into the context of economic events since 2003, the Hoodwinking Factor really has levelled up to Warp Factor 9.
I can only give you an anthropologically informed view on what has happened. It is this: everything we’re seeing put out by the authorities on Covid19/Crash2 is simply a continuation of the confused and unnatural fantasies that have led to most Western societies being incurably divided along the lines of untenable belief systems.
That process has now produced a docile electorate ready and willing to believe any level of complete tosh.
Examining that extrapolation in more detail:
Demonising the Chinese for their apparent “crimes” against world trade and the Wuhan outbreak is just another level of division. On top of that, we are now divided from each other by being forced into ‘self-distancing’, by viewing every cough with suspicion, and every old person’s sneeze as a direct attack upon us. This process began with a campaign of deriding ‘greedy’ baby-boomers of (a) hogging all the wealth and (b) acting as leeches on the back of young people who “have to look after” them. It’s utter drivel: all State pension and welfare systems rely on that model…and the young benefit as they grow old.
The rush of naive and narrowly educated kids into an admiration for the unnatural means there is no longer a social bedrock aware of the fact that milk comes from cows, not bottles and tetrapacks. The entire LGBTQ phenomenon requires every fellow-traveller with its narcissistic (and baseless) assumptions to ignore every sexuality statistic in general – and the reality of democracy as a majority system in particular. But in the COVID19 context, the result is a refusal to accept that a 0.6% overall death-rate is preferable to a lower death statistic that leaves 50% of the population with zero immunity.
The self-isolation model now adopted by both Macron and Johnson will not see off Covid19: all it will achieve is a reduced level of embaressment for such neoliberals when their poor investment in public health comes to light.
We have lost the ability to weigh consequences and then take tough decisions: rather, we prefer to dramatise every situation….and then admire the politicians who have “solved” a problem that never existed in the first place.
I am reminded of the old gag in which a curious citizen asks a park-keeper why he is spreading yellow dust everywhere.
“To keep the crocodiles at bay,” the Parky replies.
“But there aren’t any crocodiles at large in London,” the citizen observes.
“Absoutely,” says the Parky, “bloody effective isn’t it?”
When the élite-controlled media finally tell you it is your duty to lose everything in order to save the human race, it would be as well to bear that gag in mind.
As bourses collapse, unrepayable debt accumulates and banks fail, the media will continue to ratchet up the Big Lie that “everything was just fine until COVID19 appeared”.
What we are going to see then is the long-trailered appearance of the global bail-in. I so desperately want this to be the point at which the self-interested, smug conservative tendency in Western electorates says, “No…you are not separating me from my money because you failed to prosecute the guilty Masters of the Universe”.
Will they awake from their torpor to do that? The Jury is out.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--This Is Not Recession. It’s Ice Age

This Is Not Recession. It’s Ice Age

What is happening is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced @ @ @ @ @ to its apex of 9.9 percent 23 months after the formal start of the Great @ @ @ @ @ weeks into the domestic coronavirus pandemic , and just days into the imposition of emergency @ @ @ @ @ nearly 20 percent of workers report that they have lost hours or lost their job @ @ @ @ @ processor suggests that 22 percent of work hours have evaporated for hourly employees , with @ @ @ @ @ would normally show up for work not going as of Tuesday .
Absent a strong @ @ @ @ @ rate seems certain to reach heights not seen since the Great Depression or even the @ @ @ @ @ 20 percent rate is not impossible .

We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We can’t say we’re in a recession yet, at least not formally. A committee decides these things— no, really . The government generally adopts the view that a contraction is not a recession unless economic activity has declined over two quarters. But we’re in a recession and everyone knows it. And what we’re experiencing is so much more than that: a black swan, a financial war, a plague. Maybe things feel normal where you are. Maybe things do not feel normal. Things are not normal. For weeks or months, we won’t know how much GDP has slowed down and how many people have been forced out of work. Government statistics take a while to generate. They look backwards, the latest numbers still depicting a hot economy near full employment. To quantify the present reality, we have to rely on anecdotes from businesses, surveys of workers, shreds of private data, and a few state numbers. They show an economy not in a downturn or a contraction or a soft patch, not experiencing losses or selling off or correcting. They show evaporation, disappearance on what feels like a religious scale.
What is happening is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced. The unemployment rate climbed to its apex of 9.9 percent 23 months after the formal start of the Great Recession. Just a few weeks into the domestic coronavirus pandemic, and just days into the imposition of emergency measures to arrest it, nearly 20 percent of workers report that they have lost hours or lost their job. One payroll and scheduling processor suggests that 22 percent of work hours have evaporated for hourly employees, with three in 10 people who would normally show up for work not going as of Tuesday. Absent a strong governmental response, the unemployment rate seems certain to reach heights not seen since the Great Depression or even the miserable late 1800s. A 20 percent rate is not impossible.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--US scientists develop crucial blood test for coronavirus antibodies

The simple test can show how many people have really been infected .
U.S. researchers not only developed a simple @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus ( SARS-CoV-2 ) , they shared the instructions on how to make the test @ @ @ @ @ around the world could replicate it .
Labs could easily scale the test “ to @ @ @ @ @ a day , ” for antibodies to the new coronavirus , study senior author Florian @ @ @ @ @ the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai , told Science magazine .
The study @ @ @ @ @ preprint severe medRxiv , which means it has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s too early to use in clinical practice with patients .

The simple test can show how many people have really been infected.
U.S. researchers not only developed a simple antibody test for the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), they shared the instructions on how to make the test online, so that labs around the world could replicate it.
Labs could easily scale the test “to screen a few thousand people a day,” for antibodies to the new coronavirus, study senior author Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, told Science magazine.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The study has been posted on the preprint severe medRxiv, which means it has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, and as such, it’s too early to use in clinical practice with patients.
more:
www.livescience.com/coronavirus-blood-test-antibodies.html?utm_source=notification


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Charted: The Impact of COVID-19 on the World’s Major Stock Indexes

The coronavirus is officially in all 50 states .
Almost 2,000 people in New York City are now confirmed to have the virus .
The entire San Francisco Bay Area is sheltering in place .
Schools and businesses are closing around the country while Congress debates a $ 1 trillion stimulus package .
All of this is having a direct impact on stock markets , but we wanted to understand more about the timing .
How have specific key events impacted stock markets ?
• Stock markets around the world are seeing substantial declines year-to-date .
Most indexes are down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and European markets were relatively late to appreciate the severity of the coronavirus .
U.S. stocks actually increased in value throughout early February even as the virus was spreading throughout the country .
• The first American died from the coronavirus on February 29 .
U.S. stock markets shortly thereafter started to experience the most significant turmoil since the Great Recession , crashing so hard as to trip the circuit breakers and automatically halt trading .
• Asian markets were the earliest to react to the coronavirus , declining throughout late January as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Year .
Stocks are down throughout Asia , including only -8.55 % for the Shanghai Stock Exchange .
We gathered the daily percentage changes for each stock market index in our visualizations from Investing.com .
We plotted the closing value for American , European and Asian indexes for each trading day , substituting a dotted line to indicate where trading was suspended ( like in Asia ) .
We then inserted a narrative of critical events in the spread of the coronavirus , as defined by CNN and the WHO .
The three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how , when and why stock markets around the world first started to experience so much turmoil .
The major takeaway from our visualizations is simple .
World markets were late to appreciate the threat of the coronavirus to the economy .
American stock markets actually rose throughout the first several weeks of the year , peaking around late February just after the WHO named the new virus COVID-19 .
The virus had already been found in the U.S. weeks earlier .
Even as Chinese patients started dying from the virus , American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indexes are now down between -23 % to -31.25 % year-to-date , with many analysts predicating even more declines .
The track record for European markets is similar to the U.S .
The coronavirus had no impact throughout the entire month of January and the first half of February .
By March 9 , Prime Minister Conte of Italy had announced a sweeping lockdown of the entire country .
By that time , Western democracies finally seemed to understand how they needed to take actions curbing the movement of people not seen since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Europe had the top 10 biggest single-day drops year-to-date for any index in our analysis .
European markets are now off over -30 % since the start of the year .
Asian markets represent something of a paradox .
On the one hand , they started declining much earlier than in Europe or the U.S .
The Chinese government cancelled Lunar New Year celebrations on January 23 , and even extended the holiday to prevent people from returning to work and spreading the virus .
On the other hand , the Shanghai Stock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year-to-date .
In short , the markets closest to the epicenter of the virus haven ’ t reacted as severely as in the U.S. or Europe .
Of course , the coronavirus isn ’ t the only major international story depressing stock values .
Most notably , just as the world was realizing how significant COVID-19 will be for the economy , Russia and Saudi Arabia embarked on a major oil price war .
Moscow and Riyadh couldn ’ t agree on a price floor for a barrel of oil , so they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing the price to tank .
At the same time , the coronavirus caused much of the world ’ s economy to grind to a halt , severely depressing demand .
Gasoline could even drop below $ 1 a gallon soon .
Stock market prices are one indication for how an economy is performing .
The recent market turbulence suggests the world is heading into a deep recession .
The struggle to combat the coronavirus is very real and ongoing .
Want to take action right now against the coronavirus ?
Donate to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Response Fund .

by howmuch
The coronavirus is officially in all 50 states. Almost 2,000 people in New York City are now confirmed to have the virus. The entire San Francisco Bay Area is sheltering in place. Schools and businesses are closing around the country while Congress debates a $1 trillion stimulus package. All of this is having a direct impact on stock markets, but we wanted to understand more about the timing. How have specific key events impacted stock markets?
Stock markets around the world are seeing substantial declines year-to-date. Most indexes are down by over -20%.
U.S. and European markets were relatively late to appreciate the severity of the coronavirus. U.S. stocks actually increased in value throughout early February even as the virus was spreading throughout the country.
The first American died from the coronavirus on February 29. U.S. stock markets shortly thereafter started to experience the most significant turmoil since the Great Recession, crashing so hard as to trip the circuit breakers and automatically halt trading.
Asian markets were the earliest to react to the coronavirus, declining throughout late January as the Chinese government prolonged the Lunar New Year. Stocks are down throughout Asia, including only -8.55% for the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
We gathered the daily percentage changes for each stock market index in our visualizations from Investing.com. We plotted the closing value for American, European and Asian indexes for each trading day, substituting a dotted line to indicate where trading was suspended (like in Asia). We then inserted a narrative of critical events in the spread of the coronavirus, as defined by CNN and the WHO. The three resulting visualizations allow you to easily see how, when and why stock markets around the world first started to experience so much turmoil.
The major takeaway from our visualizations is simple. World markets were late to appreciate the threat of the coronavirus to the economy. American stock markets actually rose throughout the first several weeks of the year, peaking around late February just after the WHO named the new virus COVID-19. The virus had already been found in the U.S. weeks earlier. Even as Chinese patients started dying from the virus, American stock markets continued to rise. American indexes are now down between -23% to -31.25% year-to-date, with many analysts predicating even more declines.
The track record for European markets is similar to the U.S. The coronavirus had no impact throughout the entire month of January and the first half of February. By March 9, Prime Minister Conte of Italy had announced a sweeping lockdown of the entire country. By that time, Western democracies finally seemed to understand how they needed to take actions curbing the movement of people not seen since World War II. In fact, Europe had the top 10 biggest single-day drops year-to-date for any index in our analysis. European markets are now off over -30% since the start of the year.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Asian markets represent something of a paradox. On the one hand, they started declining much earlier than in Europe or the U.S. The Chinese government cancelled Lunar New Year celebrations on January 23, and even extended the holiday to prevent people from returning to work and spreading the virus. On the other hand, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recently finished only down -8.55% year-to-date. In short, the markets closest to the epicenter of the virus haven’t reacted as severely as in the U.S. or Europe.
Of course, the coronavirus isn’t the only major international story depressing stock values. Most notably, just as the world was realizing how significant COVID-19 will be for the economy, Russia and Saudi Arabia embarked on a major oil price war. Moscow and Riyadh couldn’t agree on a price floor for a barrel of oil, so they both decided to flood the market, causing the price to tank. At the same time, the coronavirus caused much of the world’s economy to grind to a halt, severely depressing demand. Gasoline could even drop below $1 a gallon soon.
Stock market prices are one indication for how an economy is performing. The recent market turbulence suggests the world is heading into a deep recession. The struggle to combat the coronavirus is very real and ongoing.
Want to take action right now against the coronavirus? Donate to the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Response Fund.