investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Bankruptcies Rise Despite Trillions in New Liquidity

Misguided lockdowns have destroyed the global economy and the impact is likely to last for years .
The fallacy of the “ lives or the economy ” argument is evident now that we see that countries like Taiwan , South Korea , Austria , Sweden , and Holland have been able to preserve the business fabric and the economy while doing a much better job managing the pandemic than countries with severe lockdowns .
One of the most alarming facts about this crisis is the pace at which bankruptcies are rising .
Despite an $ 11 trillion liquidity injection and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonds at all-time highs , and sovereign as well as corporate yields at all-time lows , companies are going bust at the fastest pace since the Great Depression .
Why ?
Because a solvency crisis can not be disguised by liquidity .
Trillions in liquidity are giving investors and governments a false sense of security , because yields are low and valuations are high , but it is a mirage driven by central bank purchases that can not disguise how quickly companies are entering into long-term solvency issues .
This is important because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies means less employment , less investment , and lower growth in the future .
Liquidity only disguises risk ; it does not resolve solvency issues driven by collapsing cash flows while costs remain elevated .
According to the Financial Times , large US corporate bankruptcy filings are now running at a record pace and are set to surpass levels reached during the financial crisis in 2009 .
As of August 17 , a record forty-five companies , each with assets of more than $ 1 billion , have filed for Chapter 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hundred thousand companies are considered insolvent and have been zombified by a pointless “ insolvency law ” that simply extends the pain of businesses that are technically bankrupt .
In Spain , the Bank of Spain alerted that 25 percent of all companies are on the verge of closing due to insolvency .
According to Moody ’ s estimates , more than 10 percent of businesses in the leading economies are in severe financial stress , many in technical bankruptcy .
How could this happen ?
Since the 2008 crisis all policy actions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yields low , bailing out bloated government spending and deficits ; and the massive liquidity injections have benefited the large quoted companies that have used the money to shield their valuations through buybacks and cheap debt .
However , cheap money has also triggered malinvestment , poor capital allocation , and higher-than-normal levels of debt .
Small businesses did not see the alleged benefits of the massive liquidity and deficit programs , while large companies became too comfortable with elevated levels of debt , poor return on capital employed , and solvency ratios @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing economy .
Cheap money and massive bailouts have planted the seeds of a solvency crisis that was triggered by the irresponsible decision of some governments of shutting down entire economies .
If you have an economy that is highly leveraged and with weak productivity and solvency ratios , shutting down the economy for two months is the last nail in the coffin .
And the ramifications will last for years .
Bailing out zombie firms will only make things worse , and new lockdowns could be lethal .
The solution is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not grab large headlines or give the impression that politicians are saving the world : Supply-side measures that activate the mechanisms of refinancing , restructuring , and efficiency improvement .
More demand-side policies , pointless stimulus plans driven at building anything at any cost , and more liquidity injections will only make things worse and drive the economy to a stagflation crisis where the next problem will be entering into a financial crisis as bankruptcies soar and banks ’ asset valuations fall as nonperforming loans balloon despite massive central bank action .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japan route : more debt , more bailouts , and massive government spending .
However , that will only lead to stagnation and perpetuating imbalances that can not be hidden when the mistakes of Japan are implemented by the eurozone , China , and the United States .
There is no possible way in which large spending and liquidity binges will deliver anything but higher debt , weaker growth , and lower real wages .
To end the zombie firm problem and the risk of even more bailouts we need more open market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flexible restructuring mechanisms .
Anything else will simply deliver stagnation .
Daniel Lacalle , PhD , economist and fund manager , is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality ( 2020 ) , Escape from the Central Bank Trap ( 2017 ) , The Energy World Is Flat ( 2015 ) , and Life in the Financial Markets ( 2014 ) .
He is a professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid .

by Daniel Lacalle via Mises
Misguided lockdowns have destroyed the global economy and the impact is likely to last for years. The fallacy of the “lives or the economy” argument is evident now that we see that countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Austria, Sweden, and Holland have been able to preserve the business fabric and the economy while doing a much better job managing the pandemic than countries with severe lockdowns.
One of the most alarming facts about this crisis is the pace at which bankruptcies are rising. Despite an $11 trillion liquidity injection and government aid in 2020, stocks and bonds at all-time highs, and sovereign as well as corporate yields at all-time lows, companies are going bust at the fastest pace since the Great Depression. Why? Because a solvency crisis cannot be disguised by liquidity.
Trillions in liquidity are giving investors and governments a false sense of security, because yields are low and valuations are high, but it is a mirage driven by central bank purchases that cannot disguise how quickly companies are entering into long-term solvency issues. This is important because soaring bankruptcies and the rise in zombie companies means less employment, less investment, and lower growth in the future.
Liquidity only disguises risk; it does not resolve solvency issues driven by collapsing cash flows while costs remain elevated.
According to the Financial Times,large US corporate bankruptcy filings are now running at a record pace and are set to surpass levels reached during the financial crisis in 2009. As of August 17, a record forty-five companies, each with assets of more than $1 billion, have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In Germany, about five hundred thousand companies are considered insolvent and have been zombified by a pointless “insolvency law” that simply extends the pain of businesses that are technically bankrupt. In Spain, the Bank of Spain alerted that 25 percent of all companies are on the verge of closing due to insolvency. According to Moody’s estimates, more than 10 percent of businesses in the leading economies are in severe financial stress, many in technical bankruptcy.
How could this happen? Since the 2008 crisis all policy actions have been aimed at keeping sovereign bond yields low, bailing out bloated government spending and deficits; and the massive liquidity injections have benefited the large quoted companies that have used the money to shield their valuations through buybacks and cheap debt. However, cheap money has also triggered malinvestment, poor capital allocation, and higher-than-normal levels of debt. Small businesses did not see the alleged benefits of the massive liquidity and deficit programs, while large companies became too comfortable with elevated levels of debt, poor return on capital employed, and solvency ratios that were simply too low in a growing economy.
Cheap money and massive bailouts have planted the seeds of a solvency crisis that was triggered by the irresponsible decision of some governments of shutting down entire economies. If you have an economy that is highly leveraged and with weak productivity and solvency ratios, shutting down the economy for two months is the last nail in the coffin. And the ramifications will last for years.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bailing out zombie firms will only make things worse, and new lockdowns could be lethal. The solution is what no government wants to do because it does not grab large headlines or give the impression that politicians are saving the world: Supply-side measures that activate the mechanisms of refinancing, restructuring, and efficiency improvement.
More demand-side policies, pointless stimulus plans driven at building anything at any cost, and more liquidity injections will only make things worse and drive the economy to a stagflation crisis where the next problem will be entering into a financial crisis as bankruptcies soar and banks’ asset valuations fall as nonperforming loans balloon despite massive central bank action.
Governments will prefer to go down the Japan route: more debt, more bailouts, and massive government spending. However, that will only lead to stagnation and perpetuating imbalances that cannot be hidden when the mistakes of Japan are implemented by the eurozone, China, and the United States. There is no possible way in which large spending and liquidity binges will deliver anything but higher debt, weaker growth, and lower real wages.
To end the zombie firm problem and the risk of even more bailouts we need more open market, less red tape, and more flexible restructuring mechanisms. Anything else will simply deliver stagnation.
Author:
Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle, PhD, economist and fund manager, is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality (2020),Escape from the Central Bank Trap (2017), The Energy World Is Flat (2015), and Life in the Financial Markets (2014).
He is a professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Sell-Off as Nazdaq gets sick….

Sell-Off as Nazdaq gets sick….

With the Dow off another 2.5 % yesterday ( Tuesday ) , the Nasdaq continued to be the main sick patient – down another 4.11 % after a disastrous Friday last week .
There ’ s a lot of blah-blah in the media about why this is ; being an old-fashioned sort of chap – and having lived on the edge of the Dotcom bust last century , my view ( for once ) is not particularly contrarian .
The gearing of Nasdaq PE ratios in 2020 makes 1980 look like a model of good behaviour .
Forty years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regarded as First Things to Sell when traders got nervous .
AI being mainly in charge today , perhaps it takes a little longer before any human life form notices that today ’ s PEs can be over then times that level of bonkers…..or a lot more .
Zoom Video Communications , for example , has a PE ratio of 474 .
At times in this century , the entire index has been at 115 .
It ’ s now at around 25 , but in my eyes that ’ s still daft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , quite simply , radioactive isotopes about to go critical : TAL 7272 , QADA 4109 , BHE 1973 , STZ 1043 , NOVOCURE 684….and on and on and on .
Anyhow , at the first sign of risk-off , stocks like these get mown down .
They have further to fall , and so the losses get higher .
At which point , people begin to look more closely at hyped stock valuations beyond the Nasdaq .
I remain , for example , convinced that that you need very serious psychiatric help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holding onto Tesla shares at the moment ( 860 ) or Hilton Hotels ( 766 ) and RPA Properties ( 661 ) .
Lest we forget , a P/E ratio is the relationship between the cost of buying a share , and what level of earnings you ’ ll make from that .
Thus , if you ’ re a Tesla believer , you think it ’ s just dandy to pay $ 330 for 1 share , your return on which per annum will be 39 cents – equivalent to 0.12 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s probably what your bank is giving you , which is equally ludicrous .
As you can see , the roulette table is ever so slightly weighted against us .
Or put another way , the whole thing is completely insane and unsustainable .
But when it comes to insanity – well , two can play at that game….for over at ITV , Old Pesto has another theory : In a dramatic whine on ITV News this morning , famed Muswell Hillbilly and top Common Purpose ace bad news inflator Roberto Pesto broke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a random test on the Nasdaq mainframe computer has yielded a positive result – albeit negative if you ’ re the Nasdaq mainframe computer .
The following quote from Signor Pesto has been speeded up by 30 % to reduce both viewer drowsiness and his extended vowelation syndrome : “ Basically , the first thing to be clear about is that here we have at last some settled science to show that the inexplicable data coming out of the Nasdaq since last Friday can be ignored and everything is absolutely fine but experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid19 – codenamed CovidIA20 – has caused serious brain damage to Nasdaq and it will have to go into isolation for at least 329 years .
“ An initial contract to supply masks for Nasdaq has been awarded by the Bill Gates computer vaccination foundation to the Carte Blanche division of the New York Times , which has unparalleled experience of covering up Very Big Things .
“ Of course , there we all were expecting the Second Wave to be more of the same , but this time , the deadly global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leapt to one Black Labrador in Ipswich , but to an Artificial Intelligence form .
“ I spoke to Peter Horby of the government ’ s Recoverup Programme this morning , and he says that over three billion share price valuations will have to be tested and recalibrated but he will know more after he speaks to Neil Ferguson , who is at this moment building a model in his garden shed in between shagging his squeeze .
After a brief period of being rewound offscreen , Pesto added : “ The search @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now , but in the meantime keeping all computers , mobiles , androids like me and other things digital socially distanced from each other is a vital priority if we are to avoid catastrophe .
“ Imagine a world in which all computers die and can not do any more modelling to warn us of things that never happen ?
It would be devastating , and leave us open to smug deniers when we tell them that there has been an invasion of Earth by Octopoid lizards and that ’ s why we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ savings in order to reconfigure the banking system and fire deadly eviction notices at the aliens and ifffffvvvvv

by John Ward
But what ails thee, Little Nasdaq?
With the Dow off another 2.5% yesterday (Tuesday), the Nasdaq continued to be the main sick patient – down another 4.11% after a disastrous Friday last week. There’s a lot of blah-blah in the media about why this is; being an old-fashioned sort of chap – and having lived on the edge of the Dotcom bust last century, my view (for once) is not particularly contrarian.
The gearing of Nasdaq PE ratios in 2020 makes 1980 look like a model of good behaviour. Forty years ago, PE’s of 35-40 were regarded as First Things to Sell when traders got nervous. AI being mainly in charge today, perhaps it takes a little longer before any human life form notices that today’s PEs can be over then times that level of bonkers…..or a lot more.
Zoom Video Communications, for example, has a PE ratio of 474. At times in this century, the entire index has been at 115. It’s now at around 25, but in my eyes that’s still daft. High fliers until last week were, quite simply, radioactive isotopes about to go critical:
TAL 7272, QADA 4109, BHE 1973, STZ 1043, NOVOCURE 684….and on and on and on.
Anyhow, at the first sign of risk-off, stocks like these get mown down. They have further to fall, and so the losses get higher.
At which point, people begin to look more closely at hyped stock valuations beyond the Nasdaq.
I remain, for example, convinced that that you need very serious psychiatric help and perhaps even a lobotomy if you holding onto Tesla shares at the moment (860) or Hilton Hotels (766) and RPA Properties (661).
Lest we forget, a P/E ratio is the relationship between the cost of buying a share, and what level of earnings you’ll make from that. Thus, if you’re a Tesla believer, you think it’s just dandy to pay $330 for 1 share, your return on which per annum will be 39 cents – equivalent to 0.12% as an interest rate. That’s probably what your bank is giving you, which is equally ludicrous.
As you can see, the roulette table is ever so slightly weighted against us.
Or put another way, the whole thing is completely insane and unsustainable.
But when it comes to insanity – well, two can play at that game….for over at ITV, Old Pesto has another theory:
In a dramatic whine on ITV News this morning, famed Muswell Hillbilly and top Common Purpose ace bad news inflator Roberto Pesto broke the story coming from New York: a random test on the Nasdaq mainframe computer has yielded a positive result – albeit negative if you’re the Nasdaq mainframe computer.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The following quote from Signor Pesto has been speeded up by 30% to reduce both viewer drowsiness and his extended vowelation syndrome:
“Basically, the first thing to be clear about is that here we have at last some settled science to show that the inexplicable data coming out of the Nasdaq since last Friday can be ignored and everything is absolutely fine but experts are sure that this new strain of Covid19 – codenamed CovidIA20 – has caused serious brain damage to Nasdaq and it will have to go into isolation for at least 329 years.
“An initial contract to supply masks for Nasdaq has been awarded by the Bill Gates computer vaccination foundation to the Carte Blanche division of the New York Times, which has unparalleled experience of covering up Very Big Things.
“Of course, there we all were expecting the Second Wave to be more of the same, but this time, the deadly global scourge of humanity has now not just leapt to one Black Labrador in Ipswich, but to an Artificial Intelligence form.
“I spoke to Peter Horby of the government’s Recoverup Programme this morning, and he says that over three billion share price valuations will have to be tested and recalibrated but he will know more after he speaks to Neil Ferguson, who is at this moment building a model in his garden shed in between shagging his squeeze.
After a brief period of being rewound offscreen, Pesto added:
“The search for a vaccine against CovidAI20 begins right now, but in the meantime keeping all computers, mobiles, androids like me and other things digital socially distanced from each other is a vital priority if we are to avoid catastrophe.
“Imagine a world in which all computers die and cannot do any more modelling to warn us of things that never happen? It would be devastating, and leave us open to smug deniers when we tell them that there has been an invasion of Earth by Octopoid lizards and that’s why we need what’s left of your savings in order to reconfigure the banking system and fire deadly eviction notices at the aliens and ifffffvvvvv
that eeeeeesn’t
scareyeeeeee
nuff
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Jim Bianco discusses the stock sell-off

Jim Bianco discusses the stock sell-off

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research , L.L.C .
Since 1990 Jim ’ s commentaries have @ @ @ @ @ the global economy and financial markets .
Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ a decades long reputation for objective , incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking .
In @ @ @ @ @ Research , Jim ’ s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy , the intersection @ @ @ @ @ the role of government in the economy , fund flows and positioning in financial markets @ @ @ @ @ and Bianco Research , Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research @ @ @ @ @ Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers .
He is a Chartered Market @ @ @ @ @ a member of the Market Technicians Association ( MTA ) .
Jim has a Bachelor @ @ @ @ @ from Marquette University ( 1984 ) and an MBA from Fordham University ( 1989 ) @

CNBC, Released on 9/8/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Abolish the Welfare State and Lift Blacks Out of Poverty with Star Parker

Click Here to Listen to the Audio According to noted columnist Star Parker , there ’ s nothing as racist @ @ @ @ @ .
It embeds low expectations for blacks and encourages absentee fathers and the destruction of @ @ @ @ @ Parker believes that doing away with welfare will do away with most of the ills @ @ @ @ @ across America .
It ’ s not the racism of the right that is keep @ @ @ @ @ s the racism of the left .

from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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According to noted columnist Star Parker, there’s nothing as racist as the current welfare system. It embeds low expectations for blacks and encourages absentee fathers and the destruction of the black family. Ms. Parker believes that doing away with welfare will do away with most of the ills that plague the black community across America. It’s not the racism of the right that is keep them down, it’s the racism of the left.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--ECB Buying Bank Stocks

ECB Buying Bank Stocks

ANSWER : The ECB is looking into buying bank stocks because nobody else will .
It is the only way @ @ @ @ @ their capitalization .
They are floating the idea of buying stocks , but they are @ @ @ @ @ .
It is another attempt to desperately try to hold on to this fiction .
@ @ @ @ @ They are buying stocks rather than doing bailouts .
It amounts to the same thing @ @ @ @ @ it is not a bailout politically .

by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Buongiorno signor martin anche se mi piacerebbe chiamarla professore, è la Bce sta comprando azioni delle banche europee grz
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AP
ANSWER: The ECB is looking into buying bank stocks because nobody else will. It is the only way to pretend they are meeting their capitalization. They are floating the idea of buying stocks, but they are not expressly saying bank stocks. It is another attempt to desperately try to hold on to this fiction. It will not succeed. They are buying stocks rather than doing bailouts. It amounts to the same thing, but they can claim it is not a bailout politically.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Democrats Have Planned A Coup If Trump Wins Reelection

Support your website : CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO PAULCRAIGROBERTS.ORG This website is mainly supported by readers who make monthly contributions .
As a result of the Covid lockdowns , one-third of the monthly support has been suspended due to economic hardship .
Thus , this website has been depleted of one-third of its donations .
As I have previously stated , telling the truth in America today is a costly activity .
If you don ’ t believe me , trying doing it yourself .
This website has a huge readership and few donors .
Readers need to support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Under the pretext that President Trump will not step down if he loses reelection , Democrats and the military/security complex created the Transition Integrity Project .
The plan they have worked out is to take the presidency regardless of the vote .
Trump ’ s win is to be blamed on vote fraud , and Biden/Kamala are forbidden to concede their defeat .
Instead , the presstitutes will conduct a propaganda campaign against Trump alleging election fraud in order to cast Trump ’ s reelection in doubt .
The propaganda campaign against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fake news just as was the Russiagate , Impeachgate , and other orchestrated false charges against Trump .
The Democrats know that just like their other false allegations against Trump , the media will back them to the hilt and many dumbshit Americans will believe the lies .
The presstitutes have done nothing for four years but try to discredit President Trump in the eyes of both Americans and the world .
The Democrat public-sector US Postal Union will not deliver mail-in votes for Trump from known Red areas .
If this doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made that Trump had the US Postal Service not deliver millions of votes for Biden/Kamala–charges absurd on their face as the postal union is a Democrat bastion–and searches will be sent for the missing ballots .
When the “ missing ballots ” are “ found , ” Biden/Kamala will be the winners .
Remember , the only voice here will be the anti-Trump presstitutes .
Trump will have been closed out of Twitter and TV and radio communication with Americans .
The next step is to unleash Antifa/BLM violence in American cities .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ America ’ s rejection of Trump ’ s theft of the election and refusal to leave office .
Trump will be accused of destroying American democracy .
The Democrats actually destroying American democracy will be portrayed as saving democracy from a power mad tyrant .
The Democrats have been gaming their planned election theft for months , and the public is being prepared for it .
For example see : thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515191-democrats-sound-alarm-on-possible-election-chaos ?
userid=439965 Here is a description of the Democrats ’ plan : unlimitedhangout.com/2020/09/investigative-reports/bipartisan-washington-insiders-reveal-their-plan-for-chaos-if-trump-wins-the-election/ Here are the Democrats in their own words describing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their destruction of American democracy : assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.pdf From all appearances , Trump and the Republicans are going to let the Democrats have their way with them .
The Democrat Party of today is not the Democrat Party of the Past .
Today the Democrat Party is an anti-white , anti-American party .
Democrats refuse to enforce law and order .
Instead , Democrats defund police and permit looting and destruction of businesses and private property .
The Democrats say that law and order is a “ white privilege , ” and they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans who vote Democrat are too stupid to justify their existence .
Many white Americans have been deracinated by decades of propaganda in the public school systems , universities , movies , and media “ exposing ” white evil .
Many white Americans lack the confidence to defend themselves .
These dumbshit white Americans are the ones the Democrats are counting on to sit sucking their thumbs while Democrats pull off a color revolution and overthrow an elected president .
The Democrats are organized , and the White House isn ’ t .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ establishment government that will not go to bat for him .
The Department of Justice has yet to bring indictments of the treasonous individuals in the CIA , FBI , and Democrat Party that orchestrated Russiagate .
I said in 2016 that Trump did not know Washington , and therefore had no idea who to appoint to his government to help him with his assault on the Establishment .
Trump has done many things for Israel , but Jews are Democrats and it will be the Jewish owned media that discredits Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not organized .
Trump ’ s own appointee to the Department of Homeland Security is about to declare Trump supporters a “ lethal threat to the United States ” –www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/09/05/trumps-dhs-to-label-white-supremacists-as-the-most-persistent-and-lethal-threat-to-the-us-report/ .
Unless Trump wins by such a large vote that it can not be discredited , the Democrats ’ coup against Trump and American democracy will succeed .

by Paul Craig Roberts via PaulCraigRoberts.org
*****
Support your website: CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO PAULCRAIGROBERTS.ORG
*****
This website is mainly supported by readers who make monthly contributions. As a result of the Covid lockdowns, one-third of the monthly support has been suspended due to economic hardship. Thus, this website has been depleted of one-third of its donations.
As I have previously stated, telling the truth in America today is a costly activity. If you don’t believe me, trying doing it yourself.
This website has a huge readership and few donors. Readers need to support my efforts if they are to continue.
Democrats Have Planned a Coup If Trump Wins Reelection
Paul Craig Roberts
Under the pretext that President Trump will not step down if he loses reelection, Democrats and the military/security complex created the Transition Integrity Project. The plan they have worked out is to take the presidency regardless of the vote. Trump’s win is to be blamed on vote fraud, and Biden/Kamala are forbidden to concede their defeat. Instead, the presstitutes will conduct a propaganda campaign against Trump alleging election fraud in order to cast Trump’s reelection in doubt.
The propaganda campaign against Trump will be conducted by assertions and fake news just as was the Russiagate, Impeachgate, and other orchestrated false charges against Trump. The Democrats know that just like their other false allegations against Trump, the media will back them to the hilt and many dumbshit Americans will believe the lies. The presstitutes have done nothing for four years but try to discredit President Trump in the eyes of both Americans and the world.
The Democrat public-sector US Postal Union will not deliver mail-in votes for Trump from known Red areas.
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If this doesn’t suffice, charges will be made that Trump had the US Postal Service not deliver millions of votes for Biden/Kamala–charges absurd on their face as the postal union is a Democrat bastion–and searches will be sent for the missing ballots. When the “missing ballots” are “found,” Biden/Kamala will be the winners. Remember, the only voice here will be the anti-Trump presstitutes. Trump will have been closed out of Twitter and TV and radio communication with Americans.
The next step is to unleash Antifa/BLM violence in American cities. The presstitutes will portray the violence as America’s rejection of Trump’s theft of the election and refusal to leave office. Trump will be accused of destroying American democracy. The Democrats actually destroying American democracy will be portrayed as saving democracy from a power mad tyrant.
The Democrats have been gaming their planned election theft for months, and the public is being prepared for it. For example see: thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515191-democrats-sound-alarm-on-possible-election-chaos?userid=439965
Here is a description of the Democrats’ plan: unlimitedhangout.com/2020/09/investigative-reports/bipartisan-washington-insiders-reveal-their-plan-for-chaos-if-trump-wins-the-election/
Here are the Democrats in their own words describing how that are going to pull off their destruction of American democracy: assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.pdf
From all appearances, Trump and the Republicans are going to let the Democrats have their way with them.
The Democrat Party of today is not the Democrat Party of the Past. Today the Democrat Party is an anti-white, anti-American party. Democrats refuse to enforce law and order. Instead, Democrats defund police and permit looting and destruction of businesses and private property. The Democrats say that law and order is a “white privilege,” and they will no longer support white privilege.
White Americans who vote Democrat are too stupid to justify their existence.
Many white Americans have been deracinated by decades of propaganda in the public school systems, universities, movies, and media “exposing” white evil. Many white Americans lack the confidence to defend themselves. These dumbshit white Americans are the ones the Democrats are counting on to sit sucking their thumbs while Democrats pull off a color revolution and overthrow an elected president.
The Democrats are organized, and the White House isn’t. Trump is isolated. He has an establishment government that will not go to bat for him. The Department of Justice has yet to bring indictments of the treasonous individuals in the CIA, FBI, and Democrat Party that orchestrated Russiagate. I said in 2016 that Trump did not know Washington, and therefore had no idea who to appoint to his government to help him with his assault on the Establishment. Trump has done many things for Israel, but Jews are Democrats and it will be the Jewish owned media that discredits Trump’s reelection.
Trump’s supporters are not organized. Trump’s own appointee to the Department of Homeland Security is about to declare Trump supporters a “lethal threat to the United States”–www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/09/05/trumps-dhs-to-label-white-supremacists-as-the-most-persistent-and-lethal-threat-to-the-us-report/ .
Unless Trump wins by such a large vote that it cannot be discredited, the Democrats’ coup against Trump and American democracy will succeed.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Will Trump Win in a Landslide?

Will Trump Win in a Landslide?

COMMENT : Dear Mr Armstrong , It looks like President Trump will win , possibly in a landslide and the @ @ @ @ @ will challenge that .
But their power will diminish over time .
I like very @ @ @ @ @ that extremely important message of Leftist Politicians committing Crimes Against Humanity .
We only need @ @ @ @ @ and the Army will say , Stop , and arrest those Politicians and the ball @ @ @ @ @ other countries are likely to follow suit .
Please continue to emphasise this message in @ @ @ @ @ reach the Police and Army personnel and generals everywhere .
REPLY : We expect the @ @ @ @ @ , which may even reach 60 % .
We are running our models on each @ @ @ @ @ our models show Trump should win .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Dear Mr Armstrong,
It looks like President Trump will win, possibly in a landslide and the powers-that-be, of course, will challenge that. But their power will diminish over time.
I like very much that you keep broadcasting that extremely important message of Leftist Politicians committing Crimes Against Humanity.
We only need ONE country where the Police and the Army will say, Stop, and arrest those Politicians and the ball will begin rolling, and other countries are likely to follow suit.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Please continue to emphasise this message in the hope that it will reach the Police and Army personnel and generals everywhere.
Kind regards,
R
Belgium
REPLY: We expect the voter turnout to be high, which may even reach 60%. We are running our models on each individual states. Federally, our models show Trump should win.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Here Comes The Next Round Of Tyranny: Big Pharma

“ The unsustainable will not be sustained , except through ever-increasing force and fraud.
” – “ Jesse , ” Jesse ’ s Cafe Americain Here come the greed-head Vax ’ ers .
We know after many decades that the flu vaccine has limited – if not unverifiable – efficacy .
But Big Pharma will use its corruption and political muscle in an attempt to force the public to accept a hastily devised COVID “ vaccine ” – one that will have had a negligible amount of testing and proof of efficacy .
And judging by the number of zombie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including in their own car with the windows closed – many sheeple will gladly accept the “ vaccine.
” “ Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned on Tuesday that people who don ’ t take the Covid-19 vaccine will become a ‘ weak link ’ that allows coronavirus to spread.
” – CNBC The commentary by Bourla is at best reprehensible .
More likely it ’ s the propaganda of a sociopathic misanthrope motivated by extreme greed .
The Big Pharma company that brings to market a Covid “ vaccine ” first , regardless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work at all , will reap Wrath of God profits .
Most of it funded by the Taxpayers .
The U.S. has been gradually creeping toward Totalitarianism since 1913 .
The process accelerated after 9/11 , when the President and Congress systematically stripped away several of the Bill of Rights .
Obama codified the Detainee Bill , removing the right of due process by anyone detained legally or illegally .
He also enabled the Too Big To Fail Banks to take control of the entire financial regulatory bureaucracy , including the Justice Department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s guess .
But the path to Totalitarianism is unavoidable unless the public rallies and revolts .
Brace yourself because everything that has unfolded over the last 12 years is going to get a lot worse…

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
“The unsustainable will not be sustained, except through ever-increasing force and fraud.” – “Jesse,” Jesse’s Cafe Americain
Here come the greed-head Vax’ers. We know after many decades that the flu vaccine has limited – if not unverifiable – efficacy. But Big Pharma will use its corruption and political muscle in an attempt to force the public to accept a hastily devised COVID “vaccine” – one that will have had a negligible amount of testing and proof of efficacy. And judging by the number of zombie humans wearing masks wherever they go – including in their own car with the windows closed – many sheeple will gladly accept the “vaccine.”
“Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned on Tuesday that people who don’t take the Covid-19 vaccine will become a ‘weak link’ that allows coronavirus to spread.” – CNBC
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The commentary by Bourla is at best reprehensible. More likely it’s the propaganda of a sociopathic misanthrope motivated by extreme greed. The Big Pharma company that brings to market a Covid “vaccine” first, regardless of whether the vaccine is proved to work at all, will reap Wrath of God profits. Most of it funded by the Taxpayers.
The U.S. has been gradually creeping toward Totalitarianism since 1913. The process accelerated after 9/11, when the President and Congress systematically stripped away several of the Bill of Rights. Obama codified the Detainee Bill, removing the right of due process by anyone detained legally or illegally. He also enabled the Too Big To Fail Banks to take control of the entire financial regulatory bureaucracy, including the Justice Department.
Where this goes next is anyone’s guess. But the path to Totalitarianism is unavoidable unless the public rallies and revolts. Brace yourself because everything that has unfolded over the last 12 years is going to get a lot worse…


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Global Currency Reset: They’ve Been Accelerating De-Dollarization (Stock Market Crash-Dollar Collaps

Global Currency Reset: They’ve Been Accelerating De-Dollarization (Stock Market Crash-Dollar Collapse)

by Financial Argument via Financial Argument The stages of the global currency reset have begun .
In this video , I described the events that will make the U.S. dollar a worthless piece of paper , a possible second stock market crash , accelerating de-dollarization , and U.S. dollar collapse .
Throughout history , many countries ’ currencies have been the dominant world currency , but none have lasted forever .
There is no doubt that the U.S. dollar is still the world reserve currency today .
But We know that the U.S. dollar is in a period of collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is almost $ 27 trillion .
That ’ s $ 81,000 of debt per citizen .
Global debt is rising and almost exceeds $ 260 trillion .
These are terrible numbers ; something must be wrong .
The world economy definitely needs a financial reset .
When we look at the statistics , we see that a global currency reset takes place every 95 years on average , though the reasons ending the dominance of a reserve currency are always different .
Throughout history , nothing has prevented currency resets , even when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the richest companies , the most land , and all trade routes .
In the past months , Russia and China have been accelerating de-dollarization , and most of the trade between them is no longer in U.S. dollars .
This is the Russian response to the recent U.S. proposal to establish an alliance against China .
Another move from China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies .
The 12 currencies are the Singapore dollar , Russia ruble , Korean won , Turkish lira , Malaysian ringgit , New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saudi riyal , United Arab Emirates dirham , Polish zloty , Thai baht , and Hungarian forint .
As we can see here , China is trying to include these countries in the de-dollarization process , thereby narrowing the global influence of the dollar .
They are trying to prevent America from using the dollar as an economic weapon .
The global currency reset will be smooth for those who are prepared and painful for those who are not .
Many things will become clearer after the November… If you have any doubt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or if you think it ’ s entirely a conspiracy theory , please watch the video to the end .
0:00 | Start0:20 | Nothing will prevent the global currency reset1:00 | The U.S. National Debt is almost $ 27 trillion2:33 | The Dutch East India Company3:48| The 3 stages of the U.S. dollar : its rise , fall , and collapse4:08 | Rise of the US dollar4:48 | Fall of the US dollar ( abandoning the gold standard ) 6:12 | The beginning of the end started in September 2019 ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Crash8:48 | The American economy has been in crisis for nearly 20 years11:14 | Russia and China have been accelerating de-dollarization12:35 | China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies13:43| The countdown has begun…

by Financial Argument via Financial Argument
The stages of the global currency reset have begun. In this video, I described the events that will make the U.S. dollar a worthless piece of paper, a possible second stock market crash, accelerating de-dollarization, and U.S. dollar collapse.
Throughout history, many countries’ currencies have been the dominant world currency, but none have lasted forever. There is no doubt that the U.S. dollar is still the world reserve currency today. But We know that the U.S. dollar is in a period of collapse.
Today, the U.S. national debt is almost $27 trillion. That’s $81,000 of debt per citizen. Global debt is rising and almost exceeds $260 trillion. These are terrible numbers; something must be wrong. The world economy definitely needs a financial reset.
When we look at the statistics, we see that a global currency reset takes place every 95 years on average, though the reasons ending the dominance of a reserve currency are always different. Throughout history, nothing has prevented currency resets, even when a country has the strongest army, the richest companies, the most land, and all trade routes.
In the past months, Russia and China have been accelerating de-dollarization, and most of the trade between them is no longer in U.S. dollars. This is the Russian response to the recent U.S. proposal to establish an alliance against China.
Another move from China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The 12 currencies are the Singapore dollar, Russia ruble, Korean won, Turkish lira, Malaysian ringgit, New Zealand dollar, South African rand, Saudi riyal, United Arab Emirates dirham, Polish zloty, Thai baht, and Hungarian forint.
As we can see here, China is trying to include these countries in the de-dollarization process, thereby narrowing the global influence of the dollar. They are trying to prevent America from using the dollar as an economic weapon.
The countdown has begun…
The global currency reset will be smooth for those who are prepared and painful for those who are not. Many things will become clearer after the November…
If you have any doubt that a global currency reset will occur, or if you think it’s entirely a conspiracy theory, please watch the video to the end.
Donate to Financial Argument: www.patreon.com/financialargu…
Views: Views:
0:00 | Start0:20 | Nothing will prevent the global currency reset1:00 | The U.S. National Debt is almost $27 trillion2:33 | The Dutch East India Company3:48| The 3 stages of the U.S. dollar: its rise, fall, and collapse4:08 | Rise of the US dollar4:48 | Fall of the US dollar (abandoning the gold standard)6:12 | The beginning of the end started in September 2019(Repo Crisis)8:10 | Stock Market Crash8:48 | The American economy has been in crisis for nearly 20 years11:14 | Russia and China have been accelerating de-dollarization12:35 | China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies13:43| The countdown has begun…


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Bank for International Settlements Activity In Gold Market Rose Again In August

Use of gold swaps by the Bank for International Settlements increased again in August , according to the bank ’ s statement of account for the month : The bank ’ s gold swaps rose by 10 tonnes from July to an estimated 484 tonnes .
The swaps are used to gain access to gold supplies from bullion banks and the gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts at major central banks , such as the Federal Reserve .
The use of gold swaps and derivatives by the BIS has been extensive so far this year , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since August 2018 , as highlighted in the table below .
By contrast , in May 2019 the bank was carrying only 78 tonnes in swaps .
The August estimate of the bank ’ s gold swaps is also higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010 .
Hence it is possible that the gold swaps as of August 2020 are the most ever for the bank .
The swap transactions create a mismatch at the BIS , which ends up being long unallocated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sight accounts at major central banks — and short allocated gold — gold due to be returned to counterparties .
This mismatch has not yet been identified as such in the bank ’ s annual reports .
The BIS refuses to explain the purposes of its activity in the gold market , nor for whom the bank is acting — — though the bank is almost certainly acting for central banks , as they are the BIS ’ only members and control its Board of Directors .
This refusal to explain prompts some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets , providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of these interventions .
This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as a broker for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets , providing those central banks with cover against exposure of their interventions .
The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018 .
It shows that the BIS is actively involved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ derivatives with changes from month to month in excess of 100 tonnes in this period .
* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes , but the BIS annual report says 326 tonnes .
It is believed that this difference arose because the gold price used to calculate GATA ’ s estimate was lower than the price used by the BIS .
GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends .
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market .
* * * Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee , cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA ’ s recent fundraising campaign , are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana , Texas .
Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $ 240 , which includes shipping via Federal Express .
Here ’ s what the bottles look like : Buyers can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as four varietals from the list here : GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold .
So if you like wine and buy it anyway , why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals ?
To order a case of GATA-label wine , please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236 @ aol.com .
“ Rigged ” is a concise explanation of government ’ s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA ’ s work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proceeds are contributed to GATA .
Buy a copy for $ 14.99 through Amazon — — or for an additional $ 3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert @ comcast.net .
Help keep GATA going : GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code .
Its e-mail dispatches are free , and you can subscribe at : To contribute to GATA , please visit :

By Robert Lambourne via GATA
Monday, September 7, 2020
Use of gold swaps by the Bank for International Settlements increased again in August, according to the bank’s statement of account for the month:
www.bis.org/banking/balsheet/statofacc200831.pdf
The bank’s gold swaps rose by 10 tonnes from July to an estimated 484 tonnes. The swaps are used to gain access to gold supplies from bullion banks and the gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts at major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve.
The use of gold swaps and derivatives by the BIS has been extensive so far this year, with August’s level being the highest since August 2018, as highlighted in the table below. By contrast, in May 2019 the bank was carrying only 78 tonnes in swaps.
The August estimate of the bank’s gold swaps is also higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. Hence it is possible that the gold swaps as of August 2020 are the most ever for the bank.
The swap transactions create a mismatch at the BIS, which ends up being long unallocated gold — the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks — and short allocated gold — gold due to be returned to counterparties.
This mismatch has not yet been identified as such in the bank’s annual reports.
The BIS refuses to explain the purposes of its activity in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting —
www.gata.org/node/17793
— though the bank is almost certainly acting for central banks, as they are the BIS’ only members and control its Board of Directors.
This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of these interventions.
This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as a broker for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with cover against exposure of their interventions.
The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It shows that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.
———-
Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 …… / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370
* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report says 326 tonnes. It is believed that this difference arose because the gold price used to calculate GATA’s estimate was lower than the price used by the BIS. GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
* * *
Join GATA here:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 14-17, 2020
REGISTRATION
* * *
Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine
Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.
Here’s what the bottles look like:
www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg
Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:
www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg
GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?
To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.
* * *
Support GATA by purchasing
Stuart Englert’s “Rigged”
“Rigged” is a concise explanation of government’s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA’s work exposing it. Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA. Buy a copy for $14.99 through Amazon —
www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…
— or for an additional $3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.
* * *
Help keep GATA going:
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
www.gata.org
To contribute to GATA, please visit:
www.gata.org/node/16


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--How many central banks will end up buying equities?

Sometimes we can combine one of our themes with the news flow and today is an example of that .
We can start with the role of central banks where what was considered extraordinary policy is now ordinary and frankly sometimes mundane .
We have seen interest-rate cuts , then QE bond buying , then credit easing and of course negative interest-rates .
Overnight even the home of the All Blacks has joined the latter party .
So we have negative bond yields somewhere else as the contagion spreads .
Whilst it is only marginal the track record so far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Madonna .
Bloomberg thinks it is driven by this .
However they seem to have missed the elephant in the room .
So we are on the road to nowhere except according to Bloomberg it was a triumph in Sweden .
Only a few paragraphs later they contradict themselves .
It worked so well they raised interest-rates in last year ’ s trade war and they have not deployed them in this pandemic in spite of GDP falling by 8 % !
Oh and there is the issue of pensions .
So in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in fact even the Riksbank of Sweden has gone rogue on the subject of negative interest-rates .
Going rogue as a central bank is very serious because they are by nature pack animals and the very idea of independent thought is simply terrifying to them .
Also the Riksbank of Sweden is well within the orbit of the supermassive black hole for negativity which is the European Central Bank or ECB .
We learn much I think by the fact that in spite of economic activity being in a depression no-one is expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
When we did have some expectations for that it was only to -0.6 % so even the believers have lost the faith .
This is an important point as whilst the Covid-19 pandemic has hit economies many were slowing anyway .
We are seeing central banks start to hint at ch-ch-changes .
The Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has also been on the case and the emphasis is mine .
He then went further .
He refers to UK Gilts ( bonds ) but he is plainly hinting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something of a hedge fund via its overseas equity purchases .
For newer readers this all started with a surge in the Swiss Franc mostly driven by the impact of the unwinding of the “ Carry Trade ” where investors had borrowed Swiss Francs .
The SNB promised “ unlimited intervention ” before retreating and now as of the end of June had 863.3 billion Swiss Francs of foreign currency assets .
It did not want to hold foreign currency on its own so it bought bonds .
But it ended up distorting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so it looked for something else to buy .
It settled on putting some 20 % of its assets in equities .
Much of that went to the US so we see this being reported .
So this is a complex journey on which we now note an issue with so-called passive investing .
The SNB buys relative to market position but that means if shares have surges you have more of them each time you rebalance .
So far with Apple that has been a large success as it has surged above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the recent tech falls are minor in comparison.But the 20 % fall in Tesla yesterday maybe a sign of problems with this sort of plan .
It of course has surged previously but it seems to lack any real business model .
The Bank of Japan bought another 80.1 billion Yen of Japanese equities earlier today as it made its second such purchase so far this month .
As of the end of last month the total was 33,993,587,890,000 Yen .
Hence its nickname of The Tokyo Whale .
Quite what good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profit for equity investors ) is a moot point ?
After all the Japanese economy was shrinking again pre pandemic and there was no sign of an end to the lost decades .
We find ourselves in familiar territory as central bankers proclaim the success of their polices but are always expanding them .
If they worked it would not be necessary would it ?
For example the US Federal Reserve moving to average inflation targeting would not be necessary if all the things they previously told us would work , had .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ planning to continue as they move further into fiscal policy via the sort of subsidies for banks provided by having a separate interest-rate for banks ( The Precious !
The Precious ! )
like the -1 % provided by the ECB .
Another version of this sort of thing is to buy equities as they can create money and use it to support the market .
The catch of this is that they support a particular group be it banks or holders of assets .
So not only does the promised economic growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corner they favour one group ( the rich ) over another ( the poor ) .
They have got away with it partly by excluding asset prices from inflation measures , but also partly because people do not fully understand what is taking place .
But the direction of travel is easy because as I explained earlier central bankers are pack animals and herd like sheep .
They will be along…..

by Shaun Richards
Sometimes we can combine one of our themes with the news flow and today is an example of that. We can start with the role of central banks where what was considered extraordinary policy is now ordinary and frankly sometimes mundane. We have seen interest-rate cuts, then QE bond buying, then credit easing and of course negative interest-rates. Overnight even the home of the All Blacks has joined the latter party.
Some New Zealand wholesale rates fell below zero for the first time on Wednesday as investors increased bets on a negative policy rate. Two and three-year swap rates sank to minus 0.005%, as did the yield on the benchmark three-year bond. ( Bloomberg)
So we have negative bond yields somewhere else as the contagion spreads. Whilst it is only marginal the track record so far is that it will sing along with Madonna.
Deeper and deeper, and deeper, and deeper
Bloomberg thinks it is driven by this.
Most economists expect the RBNZ to cut its cash rate from 0.25% to minus 0.25% or minus 0.5% in April next year, and some see the chance of an earlier move.
However they seem to have missed the elephant in the room.
The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to expand the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme up to $100 billion so as to further lower retail interest rates in order to achieve its remit. The eligible assets remain the same and the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is being held at 0.25 percent in accordance with the guidance issued on 16 March. ( Reserve Bank of New Zealand 12 August)
So we are on the road to nowhere except according to Bloomberg it was a triumph in Sweden.
Negative rates were successful in Sweden because they achieved the aim of returning inflation to target without causing any significant distortions in the economy, said Lars Svensson, an economics professor in Stockholm and a former deputy governor at the Riksbank.
Only a few paragraphs later they contradict themselves.
Swedish mortgage rates dropped below 2%, causing house prices to surge to double-digit annual gains, but unemployment fell and the economy grew. Crucially, headline inflation rose steadily from minus 0.4% in mid-2015 to meet the central bank’s 2% target two years later. Inflation expectations also rose.
And again.
The Riksbank sent its policy rate into negative territory in early 2015, reaching a low of minus 0.5% before raising it back to zero late last year.
It worked so well they raised interest-rates in last year’s trade war and they have not deployed them in this pandemic in spite of GDP falling by 8%!
Oh and there is the issue of pensions.
In Sweden, the subzero-regime was advantageous for borrowers but brutal for the country’s pension industry, which struggled to generate the returns needed when bond yields turned negative.
So in summary we arrive at a situation where in fact even the Riksbank of Sweden has gone rogue on the subject of negative interest-rates. Going rogue as a central bank is very serious because they are by nature pack animals and the very idea of independent thought is simply terrifying to them.
Also the Riksbank of Sweden is well within the orbit of the supermassive black hole for negativity which is the European Central Bank or ECB. We learn much I think by the fact that in spite of economic activity being in a depression no-one is expecting an interest-rate cut from the present -0.5%. When we did have some expectations for that it was only to -0.6% so even the believers have lost the faith. This is an important point as whilst the Covid-19 pandemic has hit economies many were slowing anyway.
Policy Shifts
We are seeing central banks start to hint at ch-ch-changes.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Purchases of foreign assets also remain an option.
The Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has also been on the case and the emphasis is mine.
But one conclusion is that it could be preferable, and consistent with setting monetary conditions
consistent with the inflation target, to seek to ensure there is sufficient headroom for more potent expansion
in central bank balance sheets when needed in the future – to “go big” and “go fast” decisively.
He then went further.
That begs questions about when does the need for headroom become an issue? What are the limits? One
way of looking at these questions is in terms of the stock of assets available for purchase.
He refers to UK Gilts ( bonds) but he is plainly hinting at wider purchases.
Swiss National Bank
This has become something of a hedge fund via its overseas equity purchases. For newer readers this all started with a surge in the Swiss Franc mostly driven by the impact of the unwinding of the “Carry Trade” where investors had borrowed Swiss Francs. The SNB promised “unlimited intervention” before retreating and now as of the end of June had 863.3 billion Swiss Francs of foreign currency assets. It did not want to hold foreign currency on its own so it bought bonds. But it ended up distorting bond markets especially some Euro area ones so it looked for something else to buy. It settled on putting some 20% of its assets in equities.
Much of that went to the US so we see this being reported.
Swiss National Bank is one of the leading tech investors in the world. 28% of SNB’s Equity portfolio is allocated to tech stocks. Swiss CenBank has 17.4mln Apple shares worth $6.3bn or 538k Tesla shares worth $630mln. ( @Schuldenshelder )
So this is a complex journey on which we now note an issue with so-called passive investing. The SNB buys relative to market position but that means if shares have surges you have more of them each time you rebalance. So far with Apple that has been a large success as it has surged above US $2 trillion in market capitalisation as the recent tech falls are minor in comparison.But the 20% fall in Tesla yesterday maybe a sign of problems with this sort of plan. It of course has surged previously but it seems to lack any real business model.
The Tokyo Whale
The Bank of Japan bought another 80.1 billion Yen of Japanese equities earlier today as it made its second such purchase so far this month. As of the end of last month the total was 33,993,587,890,000 Yen. Hence its nickname of The Tokyo Whale.
Quite what good this does ( apart from providing a profit for equity investors) is a moot point? After all the Japanese economy was shrinking again pre pandemic and there was no sign of an end to the lost decades.
Comment
We find ourselves in familiar territory as central bankers proclaim the success of their polices but are always expanding them. If they worked it would not be necessary would it? For example the US Federal Reserve moving to average inflation targeting would not be necessary if all the things they previously told us would work, had. I expect the power grab and central planning to continue as they move further into fiscal policy via the sort of subsidies for banks provided by having a separate interest-rate for banks ( The Precious! The Precious!) like the -1% provided by the ECB. Another version of this sort of thing is to buy equities as they can create money and use it to support the market.
The catch of this is that they support a particular group be it banks or holders of assets. So not only does the promised economic growth always seem to be just around the corner they favour one group ( the rich) over another ( the poor). They have got away with it partly by excluding asset prices from inflation measures, but also partly because people do not fully understand what is taking place. But the direction of travel is easy because as I explained earlier central bankers are pack animals and herd like sheep. They will be along…..


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Do NOT be afraid to leave a dealership without a car!

TL ; DR : Walking out of a dealership with no car can be the best decision you make .
Car dealers are SLEAZY AF .
I am in the market for a new car , so I went to the nearest Acura dealership to me .
I have a new-ish Honda Pilot , but an MDX before that , and I miss my MDX so here we are .
I knew going in that my trade-in ( the Pilot ) is worth $ 4500 more than what I presently owe on it .
It is lower than average miles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a buyout offer in hand from a neighboring dealer as well .
They do the obligatory “ we have to appraise ” it and I told them that ’ s fine , but I know what it ’ s worth and there ’ s no need to sell my existing car , so I won ’ t be taking less than the buyout offer I have from a dealership across the street .
I ask to drive the car and my husband and I take it for a spin .
It is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dealership .
I had gone through TrueCar to get an offer from this same dealership and was given an offer of $ 48k the night before on the car I was looking for .
They tell me that TrueCar is really aggressive and the best they could do was $ 49k .
I warn the salesperson that when he gets me the term sheet that I am looking for the out the door cost for the car and NOT payments .
I also ask for a breakdown of the fees .
He compliments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in jewelry sales before .
Cool , I am wearing a plain milligrain band .
I assure you , the ring is nothing to write home about .
I mention that I want roof racks and crossbars for the car .
He tells me they will be $ 1230 .
I tell him the price on the Acura eStore is $ 850 .
He tells me shipping and installation makes up the difference ( THIS IS A LIE ) .
Then he tries telling me that it costs $ 180 just to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ LIE ) .
I tell him he can take 20 % off his price for the aftermarket parts .
He takes off 15 .
The deal that Acura is running now is either 0.9 % over 72 months ( car at MSRP ) OR you can take the “ Internet E-Price ” discount .
MSRP for the car is $ 53k .
He wants to give me $ 4k off .
Then the funny business happens .
The sales manager comes out and tells me that there ’ s something wrong with my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ask what it is , he says they won ’ t approve me for 72 months , but only 60 months ( RED FLAG ) .
There ’ s nothing wrong with my financing .
I tell him I don ’ t care about the term , it can be 36 , 48 or 60 for all I care .
He starts being really slick and coming out to talk to me : “ Look , I really want to help you out here , and really want you to leave an Acura @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to worry about any of this , we are going to bend over backwards to make sure you get into this car ” “ Are we really only talking about a difference of $ 400 ?
” ( demeaning , dismissive , when I insisted he bring the offer on my trade-in to match what the other dealership had offered me .
Him and the salesperson do the “ can we get you anything to make you more comfortable while we work on this ” and “ the finance guy is getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I respond letting them know they ’ ve got half an hour to get it figured out , because I have a lunch date .
Now something weird happens .
I get an updated offer from a different sales agent at the SAME DEALERSHIP .
Except , it is 3k less than what they have proposed for the vehicle .
My old MDX dealer is 40 mins from my house but at this point I am willing to make the trip .
I call my contact at the old dealership .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s me for being at the other dealership .
I ask him if he can make $ 46k happen , and he tells me he has to call me back .
Bear in mind , these are 2020 ’ s sitting on the lot , and the 2021 is supposed to be coming soon .
Probably delayed , but still sitting .
The salesperson comes back out and is sweet talking my husband as I return from my phone call .
I tell the salesperson about the email from HIS dealership with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I am paying .
You know , he could have swallowed his pride on this one but he says… “ Oh that must have been a mistake , I bet he hit the wrong button , we can ’ t honor a price that low ” I asked him to let my husband and I chat .
In the meantime I start packing up my things and I see the salesperson come back out of the corner of my eye .
He has the keys to my trade-in and he hands them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could not make the financing work , thanks for coming out today ” THIS IS A TACTIC .
PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE BEING TOLD NO .
I know beyond the shadow of a doubt there is NOTHING wrong with my financing .
Why ?
Because I was pre-approved through my bank before I showed up .
They did not even ask , tried to hit me with a higher rate , even though I offered my pre-approval .
My husband and I left for our lunch date and my old dealership called me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you want to make the trip out here , you ’ ll leave in your car for that price ” I show up at the dealership and he already has a no-bullshit term sheet drawn up .
I tsk tsk ’ d him for putting GAP and Extended warranty on there , and he took them off .
He added the $ 500 to my downpayment from the finance company ( double cash , where Acura matches your downpayment up to $ 500 ) without me asking ( he knows I would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s rate , and husband and I went to go drive it while they drew up the paperwork .
Then , I got a text message from a number I did not recognize .
“ Hey Clover !
I ’ ve got some great news for you , will you give me a call when you get this ?
” Oh you have GOT to be kidding .
Then , the same number calls me half an hour later and leaves a message .
“ Hey Clover , my Sales Manager was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pulled some strings and we got it all sorted out for you , and we can WORK ON the price when you get here ” It was the salesperson from the other dealership , trying to convince me to come back .
Got back from my test drive at my dealership , caught up with the Sales Manager ( who has been there for 8 years and sold me my first MDX ) and I drove off the lot 2 hours after we got there , and now my new car is sitting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ salesperson from the first dealership back once we got home .
“ I purchased from ACME Acura .
Thanks.
” Moral of the story : Even the most informed and prepared of us can get swindled .
If I had not received that email I would have paid $ 3k more for that car than I should have .
Don ’ t be afraid to walk away .
There are PLENTY of cars on the lot !

by cloverandclutch
TL;DR: Walking out of a dealership with no car can be the best decision you make. Car dealers are SLEAZY AF.
I am in the market for a new car, so I went to the nearest Acura dealership to me. I have a new-ish Honda Pilot, but an MDX before that, and I miss my MDX so here we are.
I knew going in that my trade-in (the Pilot) is worth $4500 more than what I presently owe on it. It is lower than average miles and in excellent condition. I have a buyout offer in hand from a neighboring dealer as well.
They do the obligatory “we have to appraise” it and I told them that’s fine, but I know what it’s worth and there’s no need to sell my existing car, so I won’t be taking less than the buyout offer I have from a dealership across the street.
I ask to drive the car and my husband and I take it for a spin. It is what I expect. We return to the dealership.
I had gone through TrueCar to get an offer from this same dealership and was given an offer of $48k the night before on the car I was looking for. They tell me that TrueCar is really aggressive and the best they could do was $49k.
I warn the salesperson that when he gets me the term sheet that I am looking for the out the door cost for the car and NOT payments. I also ask for a breakdown of the fees.
He compliments my wedding ring. Tells me he was in jewelry sales before. Cool, I am wearing a plain milligrain band. I assure you, the ring is nothing to write home about.
I mention that I want roof racks and crossbars for the car. He tells me they will be $1230. I tell him the price on the Acura eStore is $850. He tells me shipping and installation makes up the difference (THIS IS A LIE). Then he tries telling me that it costs $180 just to install these (THIS IS ALSO A LIE). I tell him he can take 20% off his price for the aftermarket parts. He takes off 15.
The deal that Acura is running now is either 0.9% over 72 months (car at MSRP) OR you can take the “Internet E-Price” discount. MSRP for the car is $53k. He wants to give me $4k off.
Then the funny business happens. The sales manager comes out and tells me that there’s something wrong with my financing (through Acura). I ask what it is, he says they won’t approve me for 72 months, but only 60 months (RED FLAG). There’s nothing wrong with my financing. I tell him I don’t care about the term, it can be 36 , 48 or 60 for all I care. He starts being really slick and coming out to talk to me:
“Look, I really want to help you out here, and really want you to leave an Acura today”
“You don’t have to worry about any of this, we are going to bend over backwards to make sure you get into this car”
“Are we really only talking about a difference of $400?” (demeaning, dismissive, when I insisted he bring the offer on my trade-in to match what the other dealership had offered me.
Him and the salesperson do the “can we get you anything to make you more comfortable while we work on this” and “the finance guy is getting this into the system right now” and I respond letting them know they’ve got half an hour to get it figured out, because I have a lunch date.
Now something weird happens. I get an updated offer from a different sales agent at the SAME DEALERSHIP.
Except, it is 3k less than what they have proposed for the vehicle.
My old MDX dealer is 40 mins from my house but at this point I am willing to make the trip.
I call my contact at the old dealership. I explain the situation. He tsk tsk’s me for being at the other dealership. I ask him if he can make $46k happen, and he tells me he has to call me back.
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Bear in mind, these are 2020’s sitting on the lot, and the 2021 is supposed to be coming soon. Probably delayed, but still sitting.
The salesperson comes back out and is sweet talking my husband as I return from my phone call.
I tell the salesperson about the email from HIS dealership with an offer $3k LOWER than what I am paying. You know, he could have swallowed his pride on this one but he says…
“Oh that must have been a mistake, I bet he hit the wrong button, we can’t honor a price that low”
I asked him to let my husband and I chat. In the meantime I start packing up my things and I see the salesperson come back out of the corner of my eye.
He has the keys to my trade-in and he hands them to me and says “Sorry, we could not make the financing work, thanks for coming out today”
THIS IS A TACTIC. PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE BEING TOLD NO. I know beyond the shadow of a doubt there is NOTHING wrong with my financing. Why? Because I was pre-approved through my bank before I showed up. They did not even ask, tried to hit me with a higher rate, even though I offered my pre-approval.
My husband and I left for our lunch date and my old dealership called me back. He says “Clover, if you want to make the trip out here, you’ll leave in your car for that price”
I show up at the dealership and he already has a no-bullshit term sheet drawn up. I tsk tsk’d him for putting GAP and Extended warranty on there, and he took them off.
Those aftermarket accessories? $200 markup, not $400.
He added the $500 to my downpayment from the finance company (double cash, where Acura matches your downpayment up to $500) without me asking (he knows I would have).
They matched my bank’s rate, and husband and I went to go drive it while they drew up the paperwork.
Then, I got a text message from a number I did not recognize. “Hey Clover! I’ve got some great news for you, will you give me a call when you get this?”
Oh you have GOT to be kidding.
Then, the same number calls me half an hour later and leaves a message. “Hey Clover, my Sales Manager was really upset with American Honda but he pulled some strings and we got it all sorted out for you, and we can WORK ON the price when you get here”
It was the salesperson from the other dealership, trying to convince me to come back.
Got back from my test drive at my dealership, caught up with the Sales Manager (who has been there for 8 years and sold me my first MDX) and I drove off the lot 2 hours after we got there, and now my new car is sitting in my driveway.
I texted the salesperson from the first dealership back once we got home. “I purchased from ACME Acura. Thanks.”
Moral of the story: Even the most informed and prepared of us can get swindled. If I had not received that email I would have paid $3k more for that car than I should have. Don’t be afraid to walk away. There are PLENTY of cars on the lot!


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Lesson Learned: $9,500 Loss… Check Your Pet Insurance Exclusions

I purchased a high deductible ( $ 1,000 ) pet insurance plan for my dog Gooby .
I understand it ’ s usually better to just “ pay ” the premium to yourself to stockpile funds as needed , but since the premium was only about $ 250 every year I was OK with probably “ losing ” just for the peace of mind .
To me about $ 20 per month was worth not having to worry about potentially choosing between my dog ’ s life and $ 5,000 or $ 10,000 .
Well , just two weeks ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got lodged in his intestine and required a $ 9,500 surgery .
It was around midnight when I noticed his symptoms and 2am when I found out what happened , so due to the situation being a medical emergency outside the insurance ’ s business hours I couldn ’ t first contact them to discuss pre-approval .
All I could do was look through the policy myself which led me to give the go-ahead after I couldn ’ t find an applicable exclusion .
And yet the claim was denied because of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 my ex-girlfriend took Gooby to my old primary veterinarian that I no longer use to ingest charcoal so that he would vomit an elastic band without ever telling me .
She paid for it which was nice , but since the visit was in my name it counted as being within the 18-month period .
I guess the insurance company was able to track Gooby ’ s historical visits somehow .
I should have asked for all medical records from every place that I remember dating back 18 months and inspected them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But hindsight is always 20/20 I guess .
Thank you for reading , I mostly just wanted to vent .

by CarriageGoose
I purchased a high deductible ($1,000) pet insurance plan for my dog Gooby. I understand it’s usually better to just “pay” the premium to yourself to stockpile funds as needed, but since the premium was only about $250 every year I was OK with probably “losing” just for the peace of mind. To me about $20 per month was worth not having to worry about potentially choosing between my dog’s life and $5,000 or $10,000.
Well, just two weeks ago Gooby swallowed a garden hose attachment that got lodged in his intestine and required a $9,500 surgery. It was around midnight when I noticed his symptoms and 2am when I found out what happened, so due to the situation being a medical emergency outside the insurance’s business hours I couldn’t first contact them to discuss pre-approval. All I could do was look through the policy myself which led me to give the go-ahead after I couldn’t find an applicable exclusion.
And yet the claim was denied because of this one:
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Conditions arising from a repetitive or specific activity that leads to decontamination (e.g. the induction of vomiting), medical, or surgical treatment of your Pet, if the same or a similar activity occurred within 18 months prior to the treatment date, whether before or after the Policy Effective Date.
Turns out that in April 2019 my ex-girlfriend took Gooby to my old primary veterinarian that I no longer use to ingest charcoal so that he would vomit an elastic band without ever telling me. She paid for it which was nice, but since the visit was in my name it counted as being within the 18-month period. I guess the insurance company was able to track Gooby’s historical visits somehow.
I should have asked for all medical records from every place that I remember dating back 18 months and inspected them myself rather than going off memory. But hindsight is always 20/20 I guess.
Thank you for reading, I mostly just wanted to vent.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--This might be the first time I agree with Al Sharpton on something..

This might be the first time I agree with Al Sharpton on something.. t.co/9zpTSygfzb
— Igor Schatz (@Copernicus2013) September 9, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--The NASDAQ completed a 10% correction just 3 trading days after setting a new all-time high (Septemb

The NASDAQ completed a 10% correction just 3 trading days after setting a new all-time high (September 2)…. Michael Novogratz: I think the bubble popped

Michael Novogratz on the Market Sell-Off : I Think the Bubble Popped The market extends its losing streak from the @ @ @ @ @ The Nasdaq is down around 8 percent over the past five trading sessions .
And @ @ @ @ @ 30 percent .
Michael Novogratz , Galaxy Digital Founder and CEO , joins ‘ Closing @ @ @ @ @ his thoughts on the sell-off .
Gundlach Says High Yield Bond Defaults May Almost Double @ @ @ @ @ double as companies struggle with a protracted economic downturn even as the Federal Reserve props @ @ @ @ @ Gundlach .
The investment grade corporate debt market has skewed toward lower quality BBB- rated @ @ @ @ @ 50 % of that…

And September 2nd marked the most stretched equity market bubble ever known to mankind.t.co/nPy29YhuQF — Jack Rodeghier (@glarustrading) September 9, 2020
Deutsche Bank says the best run for stock and bonds in 160 years is ending t.co/0SF4diKo17 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 9, 2020
I’m not sure I like the look of this HYG chart. A broken rising wedge w/ negative RSI divergence? Let’s see. pic.twitter.com/gjxm1bTruC — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 9, 2020
Think of the options market as an insurance market. When stock prices are rising, the need to buy insurance is reduced, so premiums should fall. This time, however, the VIX remained elevated as the S&P 500 hit a new high, signaling incredible stress in the options market. (2/2) — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) September 9, 2020
The market extends its losing streak from the end of last week. The Nasdaq is down around 8 percent over the past five trading sessions. And Tesla stock is down nearly 30 percent. Michael Novogratz, Galaxy Digital Founder and CEO, joins ‘Closing Bell’ to talk about his thoughts on the sell-off.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
High-yield bond default rates may double as companies struggle with a protracted economic downturn even as the Federal Reserve props up valuations, said Jeffrey Gundlach. The investment grade corporate debt market has skewed toward lower quality BBB- rated debt, but if just 50% of that…