investmentwatchblog--2020-06-22--Dear Junkies Addicted to Fed Smack: The Monkey on Your Back Is Now a Gorilla

You thought that monkey on your back was light as a feather , but now it transmogrified overnight into a crushing gorilla .
Dear junkies addicted to the Federal Reserve ’ s free-money smack : like all addicts , you firmly believe you ’ re not addicted .
Never mind those tracks , you can stop any time .
Yeah , sure , but we all know you ’ re going to buy the dip and max out your margin account because the craving can not be denied .
Speaking of denial : you don ’ t realize you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bagholders who bought at the top who the dealers are counting on to cling on to the bitter end because those Fed speedballs have inspired a euphoric faith in your god-like trading powers .
Here ’ s how it ends , figuratively speaking : you ’ ll wake up inside your Mercedes in a god-forsaken patch of urban wreckage , all the doors will be locked and you won ’ t remember even leaving the party , much less how you got here .
You ’ ll compulsively check your account and find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of your entire portfolio because the bottom dropped out while you were in a Fed-smack-induced haze , dreaming of prancing unicorns and angels dancing in the head of a pin .
Only now will you understand you were not a trading genius who would get out at the top , no problem , but a bagholder , played perfectly by the big dealers who sold to you .
Now you ’ re wiped out because you don ’ t have enough cash to cover the margin call that ’ s left after your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monkey on your back was light as a feather , but now it transmogrified overnight into a crushing gorilla .
The dealers who you thought were your pals at the party made sure you wouldn ’ t be around to cause a scene when you found you could no longer count on the Fed ’ s baggies of the good stuff .
While you gird yourself for the agonies of cold turkey , consider Exhibit 1 , the Fed ’ a balance sheet in February 2020 : Notice anything about the Fed ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dried up .
But all the junkies didn ’ t notice because they were so sure that the Fed ’ s supply of junk was infinite .
A funny thing happened on February 19–the market topped out and crashed the following week .
Now look at this month ’ s supply of Fed smack : Fed junkies know one thing : the only thing that matters is the Fed ’ s junk .
Real economy : doesn ’ t matter .
Corporate sales : doesn ’ t matter .
Corporate profits : doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t matter .
Household income : doesn ’ t matter .
The only thing that matters is the Fed is supplying baggies of the good stuff .
Spoken like a true junkie , my friend , but once the high wears off consider what the Fed can ’ t do : 1 .
It can ’ t reverse the unprecedented wealth inequality its policies have pushed to the point of social disintegration and breakdown .
2 .
It can ’ t make people take on the risks and heartaches of starting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t force employers to hire more employees .
5 .
It can ’ t force people to buy assets at prices that no longer make financial sense .
7 .
It can ’ t force people who now realize their priority is to save money to spend their cash , even if the Fed forces negative interest rates .
8 .
It can ’ t lower the unaffordable cost structure of the entire economy .
9 .
It can ’ t de-link all the financial dependencies in the financial system that make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ falling .
10 .
It can ’ t stop people from selling their assets .
In summary , The Fed can ’ t stop the unwinding of an unsustainable bubble of epic proportions .
We are entering The Greatest Depression because Fed smack has zero effect on the real world ; its only effect is to increase the delusion that asset bubbles are all that matters .
Also recall that the Deep State is not going to allow Jay Powell to re-elect Donald Trump with a stock market rally .
From the point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Deep State , the market collapse in March was simply a test to confirm what happens when the free-money smack is withdrawn .
The test was a success and now the real crash can begin .
Only this time it won ’ t last three weeks .
It will last all the way through October because , well , you know why : Deep State to Powell : Stop Goosing Stocks Higher Or You ’ ll Re-Elect Trump ( June 9 , 2020 )

by Charles Hugh-Smith
You thought that monkey on your back was light as a feather, but now it transmogrified overnight into a crushing gorilla.
Dear junkies addicted to the Federal Reserve’s free-money smack: like all addicts, you firmly believe you’re not addicted. Never mind those tracks, you can stop any time. Yeah, sure, but we all know you’re going to buy the dip and max out your margin account because the craving cannot be denied.
Speaking of denial: you don’t realize you’re the dealers’ chumps, the bagholders who bought at the top who the dealers are counting on to cling on to the bitter end because those Fed speedballs have inspired a euphoric faith in your god-like trading powers.
Here’s how it ends, figuratively speaking: you’ll wake up inside your Mercedes in a god-forsaken patch of urban wreckage, all the doors will be locked and you won’t remember even leaving the party, much less how you got here.
You’ll compulsively check your account and find that your margin call exceeds the value of your entire portfolio because the bottom dropped out while you were in a Fed-smack-induced haze, dreaming of prancing unicorns and angels dancing in the head of a pin.
Only now will you understand you were not a trading genius who would get out at the top, no problem, but a bagholder, played perfectly by the big dealers who sold to you. Now you’re wiped out because you don’t have enough cash to cover the margin call that’s left after your portfolio was liquidated.
You thought that monkey on your back was light as a feather, but now it transmogrified overnight into a crushing gorilla. The dealers who you thought were your pals at the party made sure you wouldn’t be around to cause a scene when you found you could no longer count on the Fed’s baggies of the good stuff.
While you gird yourself for the agonies of cold turkey, consider Exhibit 1, the Fed’a balance sheet in February 2020:
2/5/20 $4.166 Trillion
2/12/20 $4.182 Trillion
2/19/20 $4.171 Trillion
Notice anything about the Fed’s supply of free-money smack? It dried up. But all the junkies didn’t notice because they were so sure that the Fed’s supply of junk was infinite.
A funny thing happened on February 19–the market topped out and crashed the following week. Now look at this month’s supply of Fed smack:
6/3/20 $7.165 Trillion
6/10/20 $7.168 Trillion
6/17/20 $7.094 Trillion
Umm, notice any similarity?
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Fed junkies know one thing: the only thing that matters is the Fed’s junk. Real economy: doesn’t matter. Corporate sales: doesn’t matter. Corporate profits: doesn’t matter. Tax receipts: doesn’t matter. Household income: doesn’t matter.
The only thing that matters is the Fed is supplying baggies of the good stuff. Spoken like a true junkie, my friend, but once the high wears off consider what the Fed can’t do:
1. It can’t reverse the unprecedented wealth inequality its policies have pushed to the point of social disintegration and breakdown.
2. It can’t make people take on the risks and heartaches of starting new businesses.
3. It can’t force employers to hire more employees.
4. It can’t make unprofitable businesses profitable.
5. It can’t force people to buy assets at prices that no longer make financial sense.
6. It can’t make insolvent businesses and local governments solvent.
7. It can’t force people who now realize their priority is to save money to spend their cash, even if the Fed forces negative interest rates.
8. It can’t lower the unaffordable cost structure of the entire economy.
9. It can’t de-link all the financial dependencies in the financial system that make it so vulnerable to the first domino falling.
10. It can’t stop people from selling their assets.
In summary, The Fed can’t stop the unwinding of an unsustainable bubble of epic proportions. We are entering The Greatest Depression because Fed smack has zero effect on the real world; its only effect is to increase the delusion that asset bubbles are all that matters.
Also recall that the Deep State is not going to allow Jay Powell to re-elect Donald Trump with a stock market rally. From the point of view of the inner circle of the Deep State, the market collapse in March was simply a test to confirm what happens when the free-money smack is withdrawn. The test was a success and now the real crash can begin. Only this time it won’t last three weeks. It will last all the way through October because, well, you know why: Deep State to Powell: Stop Goosing Stocks Higher Or You’ll Re-Elect Trump (June 9, 2020)


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-22--Right Now There Is A “Mad Rush” To Get Out Of The Cities

So many wealthy people are rushing to move away from the big cities that it is creating a bit of a “ real estate boom ” in many suburban areas , small towns and rural communities .
Fear of COVID-19 , a collapsing economy and the tremendous urban violence that we have witnessed in recent weeks have combined to create a frenzy of activity .
Last week , my wife and I heard from a friend in New York City that is all of a sudden desperate to move to another state , and I certainly can ’ t blame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was in his shoes , I would be wanting to move too .
But at this point so many people are all thinking the same thing that the demand for housing in certain areas threatens to greatly exceed the supply .
In fact , one real estate agent in the San Francisco area is describing it as “ a mad rush to get out of the city ” … Unfortunately , mortgage lending standards have really tightened up over the past few months , and so this is limiting the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Mostly , in this environment it is just “ wealthy folks ” that are able to move away from San Francisco and purchase a new home somewhere else… Over on the east coast , violence is one of the primary motivating factors that is causing people to suddenly pick up and move .
By now , virtually everyone has seen stunning footage of the rioting and looting that took place in the heart of New York City , and it certainly wouldn ’ t take much to spark more episodes of widespread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall crime rates in NYC have been absolutely skyrocketing , and this is helping to fuel an exodus to “ rural communities in New York and New Jersey ” … In the middle of the country , the city of Chicago is experiencing even more violence than New York City is .
In fact , dozens of people were just shot over Father ’ s Day weekend… And just a few weeks ago , we witnessed the most violent day ever recorded in the Windy City… If the problems that we are facing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most people would probably be willing to ride them out .
Unfortunately , it appears that things aren ’ t going to be getting significantly better any time soon .
Now that the lockdowns have ended , the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is starting to surge once again .
On Friday , we witnessed more than 30,000 newly confirmed cases in the U.S. for the first time in many weeks , and it was actually the worst day so far for newly confirmed cases for the globe as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus pandemic is getting worse .
Whether you want to call it “ the first wave ” or “ the second wave ” , the truth is that cases are surging and that could have very serious implications for the months ahead .
Meanwhile , the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate very rapidly .
Nearly 46 million Americans have now filed new claims for unemployment benefits since this pandemic first began , more than 100,000 businesses have permanently shut their doors , and U.S. consumers have skipped payments on more than 100 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unprecedented size and scope , and many more months of extreme economic pain lie ahead of us .
On top of everything else , we are in an election year , and even a very small spark could set off more rioting , looting and violence .
At this point , tensions are so high in this country that a recent survey found that 34 percent of all Americans believe that there could be a “ civil war ” within the next five years… I have never seen our nation so deeply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that makes me incredibly sad .
At a time when we should be coming together like never before , we are allowing strife , discord , anger and hatred to divide us even more deeply .
A house that is divided will surely fall , and the future of America looks extremely bleak if we continue down this path .
As one lone individual , there isn ’ t much that you can do to stop what is coming , but at least you can try to get to somewhere safe before everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to move , you will need to do it quickly , because as I have discussed in this article there are lots of other people thinking the exact same thing .

by Michael Snyder
So many wealthy people are rushing to move away from the big cities that it is creating a bit of a “real estate boom” in many suburban areas, small towns and rural communities. Fear of COVID-19, a collapsing economy and the tremendous urban violence that we have witnessed in recent weeks have combined to create a frenzy of activity. Last week, my wife and I heard from a friend in New York City that is all of a sudden desperate to move to another state, and I certainly can’t blame him for wanting to relocate. If I was in his shoes, I would be wanting to move too. But at this point so many people are all thinking the same thing that the demand for housing in certain areas threatens to greatly exceed the supply. In fact, one real estate agent in the San Francisco area is describing it as “a mad rush to get out of the city”…
“There’s a mad rush to get out of the city,” said Ginger Martin, a real estate agent with Sotheby’s who concentrates on high-end properties in the San Francisco Bay Area. “What I’m really doing well with right now is anything that’s turnkey.”
Unfortunately, mortgage lending standards have really tightened up over the past few months, and so this is limiting the number of people that are able to successfully relocate.
Mostly, in this environment it is just “wealthy folks” that are able to move away from San Francisco and purchase a new home somewhere else…
Relocation, at the moment, is only by wealthy folks, who still have the financial mobility to move as the real economy implodes and paralyzes the bottom 90% of Americans. Even with a good credit score, lenders are not preapproving folks like they once were. Many people over the years flooded into San Francisco as the economy boomed, and tech flourished. Now with an economic downturn, social unrest, and pandemic — the city is becoming too dangerous to raise a family.
Over on the east coast, violence is one of the primary motivating factors that is causing people to suddenly pick up and move.
By now, virtually everyone has seen stunning footage of the rioting and looting that took place in the heart of New York City, and it certainly wouldn’t take much to spark more episodes of widespread violence.
At the same time, overall crime rates in NYC have been absolutely skyrocketing, and this is helping to fuel an exodus to “rural communities in New York and New Jersey”…
During May, overall crime declined compared to the same period last year. But the New York City Police Department (NYPD) said murders in the city increase by 79%, shootings jumped by 64%, and burglaries rose 34%. The surge in violent crime is expected to supercharge a trend of New Yorkers fleeing the metro for rural communities in New York and New Jersey.
In the middle of the country, the city of Chicago is experiencing even more violence than New York City is.
In fact, dozens of people were just shot over Father’s Day weekend…
Nine people have been killed, including four under the age of 18, and 47 more were injured in shootings across Chicago on Father’s Day weekend, police said. Two teenage boys, a 3-year-old, and a 13-year-old girl are among those who were killed, officials told ABC7 in Chicago.
And just a few weeks ago, we witnessed the most violent day ever recorded in the Windy City…
While Chicago was roiled by another day of protests and looting in the wake of George Floyd’s murder, 18 people were killed Sunday, May 31, making it the single most violent day in Chicago in six decades, according to the University of Chicago Crime Lab. The lab’s data doesn’t go back further than 1961.
If the problems that we are facing were just very temporary in nature, most people would probably be willing to ride them out.
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Unfortunately, it appears that things aren’t going to be getting significantly better any time soon.
Now that the lockdowns have ended, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is starting to surge once again. On Friday, we witnessed more than 30,000 newly confirmed cases in the U.S. for the first time in many weeks, and it was actually the worst day so far for newly confirmed cases for the globe as a whole.
In other words, the coronavirus pandemic is getting worse. Whether you want to call it “the first wave” or “the second wave”, the truth is that cases are surging and that could have very serious implications for the months ahead.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate very rapidly. Nearly 46 million Americans have now filed new claims for unemployment benefits since this pandemic first began, more than 100,000 businesses have permanently shut their doors, and U.S. consumers have skipped payments on more than 100 million loans. It is an economic meltdown of unprecedented size and scope, and many more months of extreme economic pain lie ahead of us.
On top of everything else, we are in an election year, and even a very small spark could set off more rioting, looting and violence.
At this point, tensions are so high in this country that a recent survey found that 34 percent of all Americans believe that there could be a “civil war” within the next five years…
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 34% of Likely U.S. Voters think the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, but that includes only nine percent (9%) who say it’s Very Likely.
I have never seen our nation so deeply divided in my entire lifetime, and that makes me incredibly sad.
At a time when we should be coming together like never before, we are allowing strife, discord, anger and hatred to divide us even more deeply.
A house that is divided will surely fall, and the future of America looks extremely bleak if we continue down this path.
As one lone individual, there isn’t much that you can do to stop what is coming, but at least you can try to get to somewhere safe before everything falls apart.
But if you are going to move, you will need to do it quickly, because as I have discussed in this article there are lots of other people thinking the exact same thing.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-22--Alitalia, Lufthansa, Condor, Norwegian, Other European Airlines Try to Survive, But it Gets Complica

Alitalia, Lufthansa, Condor, Norwegian, Other European Airlines Try to Survive, But it Gets Complicated

It ’ s all about money , but whose money ?
As the dust starts to settle and air travel finally resumes , the European Commission ( EC ) is starting to look into the stream of public funds and taxpayer-backed loans that is pouring into European airlines ’ coffers to see what can be considered a true aid to get through the Covid-19 crisis and what is not .
And according to Italian media , the EC already has its sights set firmly on Alitalia .
Alitalia has been in administration since May 2017 , when the Etihad partnership/takeover @ @ @ @ @ @ @ common practice in Italian bankruptcy law is to liquidate a company after one year in administration at most , if a new buyer can not be found or a recovery plan agreed upon .
On March 18 , 2020 , taking advantage of the general chaos due to the healthcare crisis , the Italian government decided to nationalize Alitalia , an operation which was supposed to cost €600 million right away ( mostly to pay off existing creditors and exit administration ) and €3 billion down the road .
EC investigators have highlighted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obvious political implications of pouring so much money into a company with decades of financial losses while the Italian social security agency ( INPS ) is struggling to pay unemployment benefits .
Among the primary issues are the exact nature of two still ongoing “ bridge loans ” for a total of €1.3 billion , and the extraordinarily long time spent in administration without any serious attempt to sell the company or to restructure it to make it profitable .
The EC argues the Italian government has engaged in a “ sleight of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do something that had long been planned .
The EC has given the Italian government until September 1 to provide a new recovery plan , as the present one can not and will not be approved .
One airline which won ’ t be able to access State funding is LEVEL Europe , which filed for insolvency in Vienna and suspended all operations on June 18 .
LEVEL Europe was an Austrian-registered subsidiary of IAG , the group whose brands include among others British Airways , Iberia , Vueling and Aer Lingus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ market , initially from Vienna to a series of destinations in Western Europe but later extending operations to Amsterdam .
However , the airline proved unable to compete with low-cost heavyweights EasyJet and Ryanair and always struggled financially .
IAG took the obvious decision to cut their losses at a time when saving money has become absolutely paramount .
And surprisingly , another airline which may not access State funding is Lufthansa .
After announcing the group will attempt to lay off up to 22,000 employees while agreeing to a €9-billion “ rescue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discovered a major problem : the new main shareholder .
During the Covid-19 crisis , Munich-based billionaire Heinz Hermann Thiele increased his already conspicuous holdings of Lufthansa shares to 15 % , making him the first shareholder .
Thiele , who cut his teeth as a corporate patent lawyer before entering in the Vorstände ( executive boards ) of several transport technology companies , has been extremely vocal in his criticism of the “ rescue package ” negotiated by Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr .
While the German government at first maintained Thiele was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had to admit he carries more than enough weight in the Lufthansa board to scuttle the “ rescue package ” and possibly send the whole group into administration during the crucial meeting to be held on June 25 , should he choose to do so .
As it always happens with Lufthansa , politics have fully taken over now .
While Thiele has long been a vocal critic of the Merkel Cabinet , a political compromise will be found that will allow Thiele to get what he wants and the German government to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solution is absolutely necessary at the moment as the whole Lufthansa group ( Lufthansa , Swiss , Brussels Airlines , Dolomiti , etc . )
is ramping up operations on flights to destinations in Europe and the Middle East , with the number of flights further increasing starting July 1 .
As the saying goes failure is not an option .
Using the force majeure clause in the preliminary agreement , the Polish Aviation Group ( PGL ) has already decided they will scuttle the deal to purchase German leisure airline Condor .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ group which wholly controls Polish flag carrier LOT and has a 49 % stake in Nordica , the Estonian flag carrier – announced a plan to buy Condor for about €300 million .
Condor had previously been part of the ill-fated Thomas Cook Group and narrowly escaped bankruptcy thanks to a €380 million bridge loan from the German state-owned development bank KfW .
With PGL now out of the picture , Condor will need more state-backed money to survive : This is presently estimated at around €200 million .
It ’ s likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dump ” Condor upon either Lufthansa or TUI Group .
But in the present climate both groups are very likely to resist vigorously , unless Condor comes with a hefty financial support package .
In the meantime , Condor is laying off 15-25 % of its staff to save money , a decision that was long overdue : Condor had become bloated under Thomas Cook ownership , and during the early phase of the special administration there were signs the trend was continuing , a baffling situation considering the airline ’ s precarious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial situation , ” no report would be complete without Norwegian Air Shuttle .
NAS was already in serious financial troubles before the Covid-19 crisis due to its massive debt-fueled growth binge that didn ’ t quite work out as expected .
On May 20 , the company announced the completion of a NOK13 billion ( $ 1.28 billion ) recapitalization program which included the issuance of 30 million new shares at NOK1 apiece , compared to the closing price the day before of NOK4.4 .
In one of those now puzzlingly common @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediately shot into the stratosphere , giving the company an all-time high market capitalization of NOK 13.73 billion at a time when just 7 of its 120 aircraft were flying .
Fund managers who had subscribed the new shares at NOK1 quickly sold them at NOK2.2 realizing a 120 % gain in mere hours .
Move along Tesla .
Part of the recapitalization was a required debt-for-equity swap , where creditors had to exchange some of their claims for shares .
Aircraft lessors ended up with the lion ’ s share : AerCap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( a Singapore-registered subsidiary of the state-owned Bank of China ) with 12.67 % .
These lessors aren ’ t happy about this agreement , but the alternative was a difficult bankruptcy involving a company with a convoluted corporate structure , heavy debts , and little hard assets , all of them already used as collateral .
The new owners have also forced a drastic change of plans .
NAS originally expected to fly just 7 aircraft into 2022 , an incomprehensible choice at a time when their rivals were ramping up operations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowed airlines a lot of leeway on on-board measures to prevent the spread of disease .
NAS has now pulled a further 20 737-800 from storage which will be used to serve destinations in Scandinavia and Britain , with more to come .
While the recovery in Europe is now underway , the extent of the medium and long-term damage to air travel remains to be seen , especially to long-range destinations .
The Italian government has announced it will drop almost all quarantine requirements and restrictions for travelers coming from abroad on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all Schengen Area governments will follow suit over the following 45 days .
However , it remains to be seen exactly how much this decision will affect air travel , especially long-range flights from the Americas and Asia .
By MC01 , a frequent commenter , for WOLF STREET

It’s all about money, but whose money?
By MC01, a frequent commenter on WOLF STREET:
As the dust starts to settle and air travel finally resumes, the European Commission (EC) is starting to look into the stream of public funds and taxpayer-backed loans that is pouring into European airlines’ coffers to see what can be considered a true aid to get through the Covid-19 crisis and what is not. And according to Italian media, the EC already has its sights set firmly on Alitalia.
Alitalia.
Alitalia has been in administration since May 2017, when the Etihad partnership/takeover collapsed. This is already exceptional as common practice in Italian bankruptcy law is to liquidate a company after one year in administration at most, if a new buyer cannot be found or a recovery plan agreed upon.
On March 18, 2020, taking advantage of the general chaos due to the healthcare crisis, the Italian government decided to nationalize Alitalia, an operation which was supposed to cost €600 million right away (mostly to pay off existing creditors and exit administration) and €3 billion down the road.
EC investigators have highlighted a long series of inconsistencies besides the obvious political implications of pouring so much money into a company with decades of financial losses while the Italian social security agency (INPS) is struggling to pay unemployment benefits.
Among the primary issues are the exact nature of two still ongoing “bridge loans” for a total of €1.3 billion, and the extraordinarily long time spent in administration without any serious attempt to sell the company or to restructure it to make it profitable.
The EC argues the Italian government has engaged in a “sleight of hand,” using the crisis to do something that had long been planned. The EC has given the Italian government until September 1 to provide a new recovery plan, as the present one cannot and will not be approved.
LEVEL Europe.
One airline which won’t be able to access State funding is LEVEL Europe, which filed for insolvency in Vienna and suspended all operations on June 18.
LEVEL Europe was an Austrian-registered subsidiary of IAG, the group whose brands include among others British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus. It operated in the ultra-competitive European low-cost market, initially from Vienna to a series of destinations in Western Europe but later extending operations to Amsterdam.
However, the airline proved unable to compete with low-cost heavyweights EasyJet and Ryanair and always struggled financially. IAG took the obvious decision to cut their losses at a time when saving money has become absolutely paramount.
Lufthansa.
And surprisingly, another airline which may not access State funding is Lufthansa. After announcing the group will attempt to lay off up to 22,000 employees while agreeing to a €9-billion “rescue package,” the Frankfurt-based group just discovered a major problem: the new main shareholder.
During the Covid-19 crisis, Munich-based billionaire Heinz Hermann Thiele increased his already conspicuous holdings of Lufthansa shares to 15%, making him the first shareholder. Thiele, who cut his teeth as a corporate patent lawyer before entering in the Vorstände (executive boards) of several transport technology companies, has been extremely vocal in his criticism of the “rescue package” negotiated by Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr.
While the German government at first maintained Thiele was “just bluffing,” they later had to admit he carries more than enough weight in the Lufthansa board to scuttle the “rescue package” and possibly send the whole group into administration during the crucial meeting to be held on June 25, should he choose to do so.
As it always happens with Lufthansa, politics have fully taken over now. While Thiele has long been a vocal critic of the Merkel Cabinet, a political compromise will be found that will allow Thiele to get what he wants and the German government to declare victory and move on.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A solution is absolutely necessary at the moment as the whole Lufthansa group (Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels Airlines, Dolomiti, etc.) is ramping up operations on flights to destinations in Europe and the Middle East, with the number of flights further increasing starting July 1. As the saying goes failure is not an option.
Condor, again.
Using the force majeure clause in the preliminary agreement, the Polish Aviation Group (PGL) has already decided they will scuttle the deal to purchase German leisure airline Condor.
In January, PGL – a state-owned group which wholly controls Polish flag carrier LOT and has a 49% stake in Nordica, the Estonian flag carrier – announced a plan to buy Condor for about €300 million. Condor had previously been part of the ill-fated Thomas Cook Group and narrowly escaped bankruptcy thanks to a €380 million bridge loan from the German state-owned development bank KfW.
With PGL now out of the picture, Condor will need more state-backed money to survive: This is presently estimated at around €200 million. It’s likely the German government will attempt to “dump” Condor upon either Lufthansa or TUI Group. But in the present climate both groups are very likely to resist vigorously, unless Condor comes with a hefty financial support package.
In the meantime, Condor is laying off 15-25% of its staff to save money, a decision that was long overdue: Condor had become bloated under Thomas Cook ownership, and during the early phase of the special administration there were signs the trend was continuing, a baffling situation considering the airline’s precarious financial situation.
Norwegian Air Shuttle.
Speaking of “precarious financial situation,” no report would be complete without Norwegian Air Shuttle. NAS was already in serious financial troubles before the Covid-19 crisis due to its massive debt-fueled growth binge that didn’t quite work out as expected.
On May 20, the company announced the completion of a NOK13 billion ($1.28 billion) recapitalization program which included the issuance of 30 million new shares at NOK1 apiece, compared to the closing price the day before of NOK4.4.
In one of those now puzzlingly common moments, the just devalued NAS stocks immediately shot into the stratosphere, giving the company an all-time high market capitalization of NOK 13.73 billion at a time when just 7 of its 120 aircraft were flying.
Fund managers who had subscribed the new shares at NOK1 quickly sold them at NOK2.2 realizing a 120% gain in mere hours. Move along Tesla.
Part of the recapitalization was a required debt-for-equity swap, where creditors had to exchange some of their claims for shares. Aircraft lessors ended up with the lion’s share: AerCap with 15.9%; and BOC Aviation (a Singapore-registered subsidiary of the state-owned Bank of China) with 12.67%.
These lessors aren’t happy about this agreement, but the alternative was a difficult bankruptcy involving a company with a convoluted corporate structure, heavy debts, and little hard assets, all of them already used as collateral.
The new owners have also forced a drastic change of plans. NAS originally expected to fly just 7 aircraft into 2022, an incomprehensible choice at a time when their rivals were ramping up operations and especially given that European legislators have allowed airlines a lot of leeway on on-board measures to prevent the spread of disease.
NAS has now pulled a further 20 737-800 from storage which will be used to serve destinations in Scandinavia and Britain, with more to come.
While the recovery in Europe is now underway, the extent of the medium and long-term damage to air travel remains to be seen, especially to long-range destinations.
The Italian government has announced it will drop almost all quarantine requirements and restrictions for travelers coming from abroad on July 1. It’s likely all Schengen Area governments will follow suit over the following 45 days. However, it remains to be seen exactly how much this decision will affect air travel, especially long-range flights from the Americas and Asia. By MC01, a frequent commenter, for WOLF STREET


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-22--Is This The Lowest Point In Modern U.S. History?

Things have certainly gotten really crazy here in 2020 .
First we witnessed the eruption of the worst global pandemic in 100 years , then the U.S. economy started collapsing , and then we watched major U.S. cities burn from coast to coast as rioting and looting spiraled out of control .
Everywhere you look , people are very angry and deeply frustrated , nearly 46 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits over the past few months , and fear of COVID-19 continues to paralyze our society to a frightening extent .
But can this really be called the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to one recent survey , a whopping 72 percent of all Americans actually believe that this “ is the lowest point in the country ’ s history that they ’ ve ever been alive to see ” … That appears to be quite a consensus .
Of course many of those that were alive during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the early days of World War II would strongly argue that what we are experiencing today is nothing compared to what they had to deal with .
And without a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 1980 were not easy years by any stretch of the imagination .
Just like now , Americans of that era were facing great civil unrest , tremendous economic problems , major political shaking and a global pandemic that killed a lot of people .
If you don ’ t know about that pandemic , just Google “ the flu pandemic of 1968 ” .
Having said all that , there is definitely a case to be made for 2020 .
Not even during the Great Depression did we ever see the kind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have witnessed this year .
Even though nearly 46 million Americans have already filed for unemployment benefits since the COVID-19 pandemic began , big firms continue to lay off thousands upon thousands of workers .
On top of that , more than 100,000 businesses have already permanently closed their doors , and Americans have already skipped payments on more than 100 million loans .
And as I explained the other day , the most severe pain from this economic downturn won ’ t even begin to hit us until about six weeks from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fade , an increasing number of Americans will have a very difficult time keeping up with paying the bills .
In fact , another new survey has found that about half of all homeowners are “ worried about making future mortgage payments ” … Meanwhile , fear of COVID-19 is going to continue to paralyze our society for the foreseeable future .
I don ’ t know if you have taken a look at the numbers lately , but the truth is that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planet as a whole , Friday was the worst day of the pandemic so far by a very wide margin , and that means that this crisis is a long , long way from over .
There are already whispers that there may be new lockdowns here in the United States .
I seriously hope that does not happen , because that would be another crippling blow for our collapsing economy , and the virus just continued to spread during the first round of lockdowns anyway .
On top of everything else , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ erupt at literally any moment .
Since this is an election year , tensions are going to be running even higher than usual , and even a relatively minor spark could cause another round of major civil unrest .
But as bad as things are right now , what most people don ’ t understand is that this is just the beginning .
As I have warned so many times before , we have entered a time when we are going to be facing one crisis after another , and this is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the election in November .
We have reached a moment in history when all of the cycles are ending , all of the bubbles are bursting , and we are going to experience the consequences of all the very foolish decisions that we have been making for decades .
At this point , the immediate outlook is so bleak that it is turning all sorts of people into raging pessimists .
For example , Wolf Richter just posted an article in which he explained why he just shorted the entire stock market… @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that everyone gets to ridicule me and hail me as a moron and have fun at my expense in the comments for weeks and months every time the market goes up .
And I do not recommend shorting this market ; it ’ s nuts .
But here ’ s why I did .
The stock market had just gone through what was termed the “ greatest 50-day rally in history.
” The S & P 500 index had skyrocketed 47 % from the intraday low on March 23 ( 2,192 ) to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
It was a blistering phenomenal rally .
Since June 8 , the market has gotten off track but not by much .
It ’ s still a phenomenal rally .
And it came during the worst economy in my lifetime .
I know that a lot of people will criticize him for making such a move , but I applaud him for his bravery .
Even if his timing turns out to be a bit early , I certainly concur with him that this latest Fed-fueled bubble will inevitably burst .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ facing problems that are much more severe than a stock market crash .
In fact , a market crash will be among the least of our problems .
Because it isn ’ t just our economy that is collapsing .
Our entire society is in the process of imploding , and if you don ’ t like 2020 , then you really aren ’ t going to like what is going to happen in 2021 and beyond .

by Michael Snyder
Things have certainly gotten really crazy here in 2020. First we witnessed the eruption of the worst global pandemic in 100 years, then the U.S. economy started collapsing, and then we watched major U.S. cities burn from coast to coast as rioting and looting spiraled out of control. Everywhere you look, people are very angry and deeply frustrated, nearly 46 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits over the past few months, and fear of COVID-19 continues to paralyze our society to a frightening extent. But can this really be called the lowest point in modern U.S. history? According to one recent survey, a whopping 72 percent of all Americans actually believe that this “is the lowest point in the country’s history that they’ve ever been alive to see”…
Across two polls, more than 5,000 adult U.S. residents were recently surveyed on the state of America right now. A staggering 83% say that worrying about the future of the United States is a big source of personal stress. Also, 72% believe this is the lowest point in the country’s history that they’ve ever been alive to see.
That appears to be quite a consensus.
Of course many of those that were alive during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the early days of World War II would strongly argue that what we are experiencing today is nothing compared to what they had to deal with.
And without a doubt, the twelve years from 1968 to 1980 were not easy years by any stretch of the imagination. Just like now, Americans of that era were facing great civil unrest, tremendous economic problems, major political shaking and a global pandemic that killed a lot of people. If you don’t know about that pandemic, just Google “the flu pandemic of 1968”.
Having said all that, there is definitely a case to be made for 2020. Not even during the Great Depression did we ever see the kind of apocalyptic spike in unemployment that we have witnessed this year. Even though nearly 46 million Americans have already filed for unemployment benefits since the COVID-19 pandemic began, big firms continue to lay off thousands upon thousands of workers. On top of that, more than 100,000 businesses have already permanently closed their doors, and Americans have already skipped payments on more than 100 million loans.
And as I explained the other day, the most severe pain from this economic downturn won’t even begin to hit us until about six weeks from now.
As emergency government assistance starts to fade, an increasing number of Americans will have a very difficult time keeping up with paying the bills. In fact, another new survey has found that about half of all homeowners are “worried about making future mortgage payments”…
New research offers a glimpse into struggling households, discovers out of the 2,000 American homeowners polled, over half (52%) of respondents say they’re routinely worried about making future mortgage payments and nearly half (47%) considered selling their home because of the inability to service mortgage payments. The study, conducted by OnePoll and the National Association of Realtors, determined 81% of respondents had experienced unexpected financial stress due to the virus-induced recession. Over half (56%) reduced spending so they could service mortgage payments.
Meanwhile, fear of COVID-19 is going to continue to paralyze our society for the foreseeable future.
I don’t know if you have taken a look at the numbers lately, but the truth is that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is starting to surge again. For the planet as a whole, Friday was the worst day of the pandemic so far by a very wide margin, and that means that this crisis is a long, long way from over.
There are already whispers that there may be new lockdowns here in the United States. I seriously hope that does not happen, because that would be another crippling blow for our collapsing economy, and the virus just continued to spread during the first round of lockdowns anyway.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
On top of everything else, more rioting, looting and violence could erupt at literally any moment. Since this is an election year, tensions are going to be running even higher than usual, and even a relatively minor spark could cause another round of major civil unrest.
But as bad as things are right now, what most people don’t understand is that this is just the beginning.
As I have warned so many times before, we have entered a time when we are going to be facing one crisis after another, and this is going to be true no matter what happens during the election in November.
We have reached a moment in history when all of the cycles are ending, all of the bubbles are bursting, and we are going to experience the consequences of all the very foolish decisions that we have been making for decades.
At this point, the immediate outlook is so bleak that it is turning all sorts of people into raging pessimists. For example, Wolf Richter just posted an article in which he explained why he just shorted the entire stock market…
I’m sharing this trade so that everyone gets to ridicule me and hail me as a moron and have fun at my expense in the comments for weeks and months every time the market goes up. And I do not recommend shorting this market; it’s nuts. But here’s why I did. The stock market had just gone through what was termed the “greatest 50-day rally in history.” The S&P 500 index had skyrocketed 47% from the intraday low on March 23 (2,192) to the close on June 8 (3,232). It was a blistering phenomenal rally. Since June 8, the market has gotten off track but not by much. It’s still a phenomenal rally. And it came during the worst economy in my lifetime.
I know that a lot of people will criticize him for making such a move, but I applaud him for his bravery.
Even if his timing turns out to be a bit early, I certainly concur with him that this latest Fed-fueled bubble will inevitably burst.
But ultimately we are going to be facing problems that are much more severe than a stock market crash. In fact, a market crash will be among the least of our problems.
Because it isn’t just our economy that is collapsing.
Our entire society is in the process of imploding, and if you don’t like 2020, then you really aren’t going to like what is going to happen in 2021 and beyond.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-22--Impact of the Crypto Currency in Global Economy

The cryptocurrency was introduced in the market for over a decade .
Since then it has been active in the trade market .
It has grown its roots deeper in the major field of the world ’ s economy .
The impact of the Cryptocurrency is so huge that some of the traders are predicting that it might give a tough fight to the fiat currency for the place of mainstream currency .
When it has first introduced in the market , nobody thought that a decentralized digital currency will be able to go this far in the future .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ become a real deal in the trade market .
Cryptocurrency surfaced in the market as a digital currency .
But with time it made a spot in digital assets .
This happens due to the price evaluation of the Bitcoin in 2017 .
After this event , traders saw some hidden possibilities in the Cryptocurrencies .
This made then invest in the Cryptocurrency .
How Cryptocurrency is transforming the World ’ s Economy ?
It has only been 10 years , but the Cryptocurrency has already started to bring new changes in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the major transactional methods used at the international level .
Not only that , but traders are also using the cryptocurrency as digital assets to safeguard their savings .
The impact of the cryptocurrency was so huge that a country like Venezuela has launched its own Cryptocurrency “ Petro ” to boost its fiat currency , Bolivar .
Here are some of the visible impacts that Cryptocurrency has caused on the World ’ s Economy .
With the introduction of the cryptocurrency in the market , traders have started shifting their trading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disposal , traders and investors are using the Crypto assets to increase the portfolio .
After the highest price evaluation in 2107 , traders found a golden opportunity to earn huge profits in short period of time .
This made them shift their trading portfolio to the Cryptocurrencies .
We all know that international trades are related to the USD in one way or another .
But in the case of cryptocurrency , there are no third parties required , hence , there is no involvement of the USD .
This give the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the radar of the government institutions .
This way traders were also able to save conversional charges .
• No need for third parties As Cryptocurrency uses a public ledger network for the transactions , it does not need intermediaries ’ parties .
The whole technology is supported by blockchain peer to peer connectivity .
This very feature has made the banking sectors anxious and have restricted the bank to accepts the regulation of the cryptocurrencies .
International transactions are more complicated and costly you can ever think .
With every international transaction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you have to deal with .
These charges include transaction charges and conversational charges .
For a single transaction , these charges may seem a small amount , but if your sum up multiple transactions together , you will be able to see just how much your money is wasted .
But with the crypto transaction , you can omit all the additional charges .
If you are talking about the Cryptocurrencies and not mentioning ICOs ( Initial Coin Offering ) then the whole conversation will be incomplete .
Crowdfunding is one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carry on with their business without being financially strong .
But over the past decade , the world has seen several fraudulent activities that have made the investors and traders lost their trust in the crowdfunding procedure .
crowdfunding was going to extinct with time , but after the introduction of the Cryptocurrency and ICOs , this method got a second life .
Nobody knows what the future has in store for the cryptocurrency .
We can just speculate with the current market of the cryptocurrency .
Whether it will enter in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
We can just wait and see what will happen to the Cryptocurrency .
If you think that you are interested to be a part of Crypto trade market , then you can visit the cfd trader .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

The cryptocurrency was introduced in the market for over a decade. Since then it has been active in the trade market. It has grown its roots deeper in the major field of the world’s economy. The impact of the Cryptocurrency is so huge that some of the traders are predicting that it might give a tough fight to the fiat currency for the place of mainstream currency.
When it has first introduced in the market, nobody thought that a decentralized digital currency will be able to go this far in the future. Today, Cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin has become a real deal in the trade market.
Cryptocurrency surfaced in the market as a digital currency. But with time it made a spot in digital assets. This happens due to the price evaluation of the Bitcoin in 2017. After this event, traders saw some hidden possibilities in the Cryptocurrencies. This made then invest in the Cryptocurrency.
How Cryptocurrency is transforming the World’s Economy?
It has only been 10 years, but the Cryptocurrency has already started to bring new changes in the trade market. It has become one of the major transactional methods used at the international level. Not only that, but traders are also using the cryptocurrency as digital assets to safeguard their savings.
The impact of the cryptocurrency was so huge that a country like Venezuela has launched its own Cryptocurrency “Petro” to boost its fiat currency, Bolivar.
Here are some of the visible impacts that Cryptocurrency has caused on the World’s Economy.
Global Investments
With the introduction of the cryptocurrency in the market, traders have started shifting their trading portfolios. With the cryptocurrencies at the disposal, traders and investors are using the Crypto assets to increase the portfolio. After the highest price evaluation in 2107, traders found a golden opportunity to earn huge profits in short period of time. This made them shift their trading portfolio to the Cryptocurrencies.
International transaction other than USD
We all know that international trades are related to the USD in one way or another. But in the case of cryptocurrency, there are no third parties required, hence, there is no involvement of the USD. This give the Crypto trades a leeway to transact under the radar of the government institutions. This way traders were also able to save conversional charges.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
No need for third parties
As Cryptocurrency uses a public ledger network for the transactions, it does not need intermediaries’ parties. The whole technology is supported by blockchain peer to peer connectivity. This very feature has made the banking sectors anxious and have restricted the bank to accepts the regulation of the cryptocurrencies.
Smooth overseas businesses
International transactions are more complicated and costly you can ever think. With every international transaction, there are several overhead charges that you have to deal with. These charges include transaction charges and conversational charges. For a single transaction, these charges may seem a small amount, but if your sum up multiple transactions together, you will be able to see just how much your money is wasted. But with the crypto transaction, you can omit all the additional charges.
Improved Crowdfunding
If you are talking about the Cryptocurrencies and not mentioning ICOs (Initial Coin Offering) then the whole conversation will be incomplete. Crowdfunding is one of the best way for aspiring entrepreneurs to carry on with their business without being financially strong.
But over the past decade, the world has seen several fraudulent activities that have made the investors and traders lost their trust in the crowdfunding procedure.
crowdfunding was going to extinct with time, but after the introduction of the Cryptocurrency and ICOs, this method got a second life.
Final Thoughts
Nobody knows what the future has in store for the cryptocurrency. We can just speculate with the current market of the cryptocurrency. Whether it will enter in the mainstream or the Crypto bubble will burst? We can just wait and see what will happen to the Cryptocurrency. If you think that you are interested to be a part of Crypto trade market, then you can visit the cfd trader.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures: Anything to Keep Housing Bubble Prices Higher?

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St How is the US economy recovering with more consumer spending when @ @ @ @ @ mortgage payments for 3 or 4 months ?
Commit to tipping us monthly for our @ @ @ @ @ , thought provoking content that includes interviews with top experts , analysis and short videos @ @ @ @ @ patreon.com/wallstformainst

by Jason Burack of Wall St For Main St
How is the US economy recovering with more consumer spending when many Americans have skipped their mortgage payments for 3 or 4 months?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE
Commit to tipping us monthly for our hard work creating high level, thought provoking content that includes interviews with top experts, analysis and short videos about investing and the economy patreon.com/wallstformainst


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--CUOMO: Not My Fault All The Old Folks Died — Guess Who He Blames

Cuomo defended his office ’ s response to the pandemic during an interview with MSNBC ’ s Stephanie Ruhle .
“ Yes , we had more people die in nursing homes than anywhere else , because we had more people die , because the federal government missed the boat and never told us this virus was coming from Europe and not from China , ” Cuomo said .
“ And January , February , March , before they did the European travel ban , 3 million people came from Europe and brought the virus to New York and the federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal government and the CDC and all of them failed to handle this pandemic and warn this nation.
” “ So , New York had more cases , more deaths , and more deaths in nursing home because that ’ s who the virus affects .
It affects senior citizens , we know that .
You look at any state and they had a tremendous number of deaths in nursing homes , ” he added .
“ It ’ s all a political charade , and it ’ s an ugly one frankly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths and suggest there was politics added .
”

Cuomo calls blaming his office for nursing home deaths a ‘political charade’
Cuomo defended his office’s response to the pandemic during an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle.
“Yes, we had more people die in nursing homes than anywhere else, because we had more people die, because the federal government missed the boat and never told us this virus was coming from Europe and not from China,” Cuomo said. “And January, February, March, before they did the European travel ban, 3 million people came from Europe and brought the virus to New York and the federal government didn’t know and the federal government and the CDC and all of them failed to handle this pandemic and warn this nation.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“So, New York had more cases, more deaths, and more deaths in nursing home because that’s who the virus affects. It affects senior citizens, we know that. You look at any state and they had a tremendous number of deaths in nursing homes,” he added. “It’s all a political charade, and it’s an ugly one frankly, to talk about a number of deaths and suggest there was politics added.”
thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/503876-cuomo-calls-blaming-his-office-for-nursing-home-deaths-a-political?amp
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--CLOWN WORLD: Big Changes In Store For “The Masters” Tournament

We ’ ve Lived with ‘ The Masters ’ Name Long Enough There ’ s a bigger one in the @ @ @ @ @ addressed , changed and removed .
The name “ The Masters ” must go .
@ @ @ @ @ or even sounded good when you said it .
And before we hear from the @ @ @ @ @ , save it .
When that history and tradition is rooted in slavery , it @ @ @ @ @ and honored .
The only thing worse than the name of the event is the @ @ @ @ @ was built on grounds that were once a slave plantation and was the property of @ @ @ @ @ according to a 2019 New Yorker piece about the course , it ’ s believed @ @ @ @ @ on the property .

We’ve Lived with ‘The Masters’ Name Long Enough
There’s a bigger one in the room that needs to be addressed, changed and removed.
The name “The Masters” must go.
The Masters never felt good or even sounded good when you said it.
And before we hear from the choir about tradition and history, save it.
When that history and tradition is rooted in slavery, it shouldn’t be preserved and honored.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The only thing worse than the name of the event is the actual venue.
Augusta National was built on grounds that were once a slave plantation and was the property of a slave owner. And according to a 2019 New Yorker piece about the course, it’s believed that enslaved Blacks were housed on the property.
It’s a dark reminder of America’s ugly past.
deadspin.com/we-ve-lived-with-the-masters-name-long-enough-1844121041?utm_medium=sharefromsite&utm_source=deadspin_twitter
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--“The Candace Owens Show: What Does Black America Want?” Powerful.

This week , Candace Owens discusses the hot-button issues of the day : reactions to her viral video on Black @ @ @ @ @ , defunding the police , and the state of Black America .
You don ’ @ @ @ @ @ .

This week, Candace Owens discusses the hot-button issues of the day: reactions to her viral video on Black Lives Matter, Rayshard Brooks, defunding the police, and the state of Black America. You don’t want to miss this.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--Trump’s Rally SMASHES Ratings, Small Crowd Dwarfed By 12M Live Viewers!

It ’ s more than 12 million .
Fox reported 7.7 million , RSBN 4.2 million , CNN 4 million @ @ @ @ @ 16 million right there .
It ’ s easily north of 20 million .

It’s more than 12 million. Fox reported 7.7 million, RSBN 4.2 million, CNN 4 million. So that’s 16 million right there. It’s easily north of 20 million.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--Five places that should boom from the coming Covid migration

Across the Land of the Free , and much of the world , local governments are finally starting to allow businesses to re-open and employees to come back to the office .
Offices in New York City opened this morning for the first time in months , after Comrade Mayor Bill de Blasio ’ s politburo finally approved the policy .
The Republic of CHAZ , formerly known as Seattle , was approved for ‘ Phase II reopening ’ on Friday , both by state health authorities as well as local warlords .
Other major cities and anarcho-communist enclaves around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past few weeks .
And so far one key trend is obvious : New York City ’ s major Wall Street banks , for example , are still keeping most people at home .
Goldman Sachs only expects 10 % of its workforce back in the office , and those are all ‘ volunteers ’ .
Morgan Stanley has less than 10 % of its workforce nationwide at the office .
Citigroup expects 5 % of its workforce back in the office over the next few weeks , and JP Morgan isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work right now .
Companies in a variety of other industries have taken a similar approach .
Microsoft , Disney , Twitter , Mastercard , Facebook , Nationwide Insurance , Google , Amazon , Square , CNN , Slack , Sales Force , PayPal , Shopify , and Apple are among countless others who have told employees they can keep working from home .
And many of those changes are permanent ; Facebook ’ s Mark Zuckerberg , for example , has said that potentially half of his company ’ s work force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Twitter and Square have told employees they can work from home “ indefinitely ” .
Nationwide Insurance announced a permanent transition to working from home .
The CEO of banking giant Barclays called crowded offices with thousands of workers “ a thing of the past ” .
Morgan Stanley ’ s CEO expects his bank to need “ a lot less real estate ” in the future .
Disney ’ s chairman said his company will reopen “ with less office space.
” This is a pretty obvious trend– there will continue to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home .
And if you can work from home , you can work just about anywhere within reason .
We talked about this briefly last week– I told you that I expect a massive trend in migration from high tax , high cost urban places to lower tax , lower cost suburban and rural places .
And the reasons are obvious .
Plenty of people have been miserably cooped up in shoebox-sized apartments for the past three months due to local lockdown restrictions .
And now they ’ re finally realizing– ‘ if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the office anymore , I don ’ t need to be in this city anymore… ’ Plus they ’ re wisely thinking about the future .
Sure , maybe medical researchers find the miracle drug to treat Covid-19 .
Or they develop a vaccine that Bill Gates will personally inject into each and every one of us at gunpoint .
But then what happens if Covid-20 hits ?
Or an antibiotic resistant superbug is unleashed upon the world ?
Or people simply decide they don ’ t want to raise their children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and looting are considered acts of heroism ?
This is not a passing trend .
It ’ s a way of life .
It ’ s unlikely that cities will become ghost towns… but people who understand what ’ s happening are really starting to consider new places to live .
The arithmetic is quite simple .
Someone can trade a $ 5,000/month hamster cage in Manhattan for a 4,000+ square foot home with water views and a spacious yard in sunny Florida , and still have plenty of extra money left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has no state income tax .
This logic makes five places very interesting for prospective migrants .
Texas , Florida , Nevada , and Tennessee are four states with warm weather , plenty of wide-open spaces , cheap living costs , access to big city amenities , and no state income tax .
We ’ ll talk about this a lot more in future letters because there ’ s a LOT to digest– from the decline of office property ( WeWork has already started skipping some rent payments ) to the ridiculously low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before we get to that , there ’ s a fifth place worth mentioning– and that ’ s right here in Puerto Rico .
Lately there ’ s been a surge of prospective residents who have arrived here over the past few weeks looking at property .
I live in a fairly high end , luxury resort , and most of the residents are investors and entrepreneurs .
One of my neighbors , for example , is a prominent hedge fund manager , another is an acclaimed tech entrepreneur , and another is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ successful sports business .
I ’ m fairly close with the executives in my development , and they told me there ’ s been a flood of people from the mainland ( mostly from New York ) who are trying to get out of Manhattan as quickly as possible .
And they ’ re looking very hard at Puerto Rico .
That ’ s because , in addition to the great weather and time zone ( Puerto Rico is currently in the same time zone as New York ) , the tax incentives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Florida no longer have to pay city or state income tax .
And that can easily save 10 % .
But as we ’ ve discussed many times in the past , bona fide residents of Puerto Rico who meet certain conditions are exempt from US federal income tax as well .
Puerto Rico ’ s tax incentives can reduce your business profits tax to just 4 % , and individual tax to ZERO… plus you can live on the beach and never be cold again .

by Simon Black
Today’s the day.
Across the Land of the Free, and much of the world, local governments are finally starting to allow businesses to re-open and employees to come back to the office.
Offices in New York City opened this morning for the first time in months, after Comrade Mayor Bill de Blasio’s politburo finally approved the policy.
The Republic of CHAZ, formerly known as Seattle, was approved for ‘Phase II reopening’ on Friday, both by state health authorities as well as local warlords.
Other major cities and anarcho-communist enclaves around the world have been slowly re-opening over the past few weeks. And so far one key trend is obvious:
A lot of people aren’t showing up.
New York City’s major Wall Street banks, for example, are still keeping most people at home.
Goldman Sachs only expects 10% of its workforce back in the office, and those are all ‘volunteers’. Morgan Stanley has less than 10% of its workforce nationwide at the office.
Citigroup expects 5% of its workforce back in the office over the next few weeks, and JP Morgan isn’t requiring anyone to return to work right now.
Companies in a variety of other industries have taken a similar approach.
Microsoft, Disney, Twitter, Mastercard, Facebook, Nationwide Insurance, Google, Amazon, Square, CNN, Slack, Sales Force, PayPal, Shopify, and Apple are among countless others who have told employees they can keep working from home.
And many of those changes are permanent; Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, for example, has said that potentially half of his company’s work force could end up working remotely forever.
Twitter and Square have told employees they can work from home “indefinitely”. Nationwide Insurance announced a permanent transition to working from home.
The CEO of banking giant Barclays called crowded offices with thousands of workers “a thing of the past”. Morgan Stanley’s CEO expects his bank to need “a lot less real estate” in the future. Disney’s chairman said his company will reopen “with less office space.”
This is a pretty obvious trend– there will continue to be a LOT of people working from home.
And if you can work from home, you can work just about anywhere within reason.
We talked about this briefly last week– I told you that I expect a massive trend in migration from high tax, high cost urban places to lower tax, lower cost suburban and rural places.
And the reasons are obvious.
Plenty of people have been miserably cooped up in shoebox-sized apartments for the past three months due to local lockdown restrictions. And now they’re finally realizing– ‘if I don’t need to go to the office anymore, I don’t need to be in this city anymore…’
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Plus they’re wisely thinking about the future.
Sure, maybe medical researchers find the miracle drug to treat Covid-19. Or they develop a vaccine that Bill Gates will personally inject into each and every one of us at gunpoint.
But then what happens if Covid-20 hits? Or an antibiotic resistant superbug is unleashed upon the world?
Or people simply decide they don’t want to raise their children in a place where arson, vandalism, and looting are considered acts of heroism?
This is not a passing trend. It’s a way of life.
It’s unlikely that cities will become ghost towns… but people who understand what’s happening are really starting to consider new places to live.
The arithmetic is quite simple. Someone can trade a $5,000/month hamster cage in Manhattan for a 4,000+ square foot home with water views and a spacious yard in sunny Florida, and still have plenty of extra money left over… with the added benefit that Florida has no state income tax.
This logic makes five places very interesting for prospective migrants.
Texas, Florida, Nevada, and Tennessee are four states with warm weather, plenty of wide-open spaces, cheap living costs, access to big city amenities, and no state income tax.
We’ll talk about this a lot more in future letters because there’s a LOT to digest– from the decline of office property (WeWork has already started skipping some rent payments) to the ridiculously low mortgage rates available to investors.
But before we get to that, there’s a fifth place worth mentioning– and that’s right here in Puerto Rico.
Lately there’s been a surge of prospective residents who have arrived here over the past few weeks looking at property.
I live in a fairly high end, luxury resort, and most of the residents are investors and entrepreneurs. One of my neighbors, for example, is a prominent hedge fund manager, another is an acclaimed tech entrepreneur, and another is a former pro-athlete who built a highly successful sports business.
I’m fairly close with the executives in my development, and they told me there’s been a flood of people from the mainland (mostly from New York) who are trying to get out of Manhattan as quickly as possible.
And they’re looking very hard at Puerto Rico.
That’s because, in addition to the great weather and time zone (Puerto Rico is currently in the same time zone as New York), the tax incentives are unbeatable.
New Yorkers who move to Florida no longer have to pay city or state income tax. And that can easily save 10%.
But as we’ve discussed many times in the past, bona fide residents of Puerto Rico who meet certain conditions are exempt from US federal income tax as well.
Puerto Rico’s tax incentives can reduce your business profits tax to just 4%, and individual tax to ZERO… plus you can live on the beach and never be cold again.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--How Pension Funds Die, CalPERS Edition

How Pension Funds Die, CalPERS Edition

Say you ’ re running a big pension fund that – according to the politicians who are handing out ultra-generous benefits to public sector employee voters – has to generate 7 % returns in order to meet the resulting obligations .
But the bonds you used to rely on now yield between 0 % and 2 % , depending on how far out on the yield ( that is , risk ) curve you ’ re willing to go .
Stocks , meanwhile , have been rising , but can also go way down .
You remember the near-death experiences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and you never , ever want to experience another such nightmare .
So what do you do ?
Well , if you ’ re extremely brave and your family already has plenty of money , you stand up , tell your bosses that their goals are impossible to achieve , and hold your head high as security escorts you to the door .
If you ’ re less brave and/or rich , you might roll the dice and bet the farm on high risk/high potential return strategies , and just hope that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ ll collect another couple years of big paychecks before security comes for you .
That ’ s what the biggest pension fund just decided to try .
The California Public Employees Retirement System , the nation ’ s largest pension trust , benefited greatly from the runup in stocks and other investments during the last few years , topping $ 400 billion early this year .
CalPERS needed it because it was still reeling from a $ 100 billion decline in its investment portfolio during the previous decade ’ s Great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments for ever-increasing , mandatory “ contributions ” to keep pensions flowing and reduce its immense “ unfunded liability.
” But it faced a backlash from local officials who said vital services were being cut to make their CalPERS payments .
Just when CalPERS appeared to be climbing out of its hole , the COVID-19 pandemic erupted early this year , sending the economy into a tailspin .
Virtually overnight , the fund saw its value take a $ 69 billion hit as the stock market — CalPERS ’ biggest investment sector — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but CalPERS is still down about $ 13 billion from its high early this year .
Further investment erosions would , almost automatically , trigger even greater CalPERS demands for contributions from government employers , but the recession is also eating into their tax revenues , creating substantial budget deficits .
It underscores CalPERS ’ vulnerability to capital market gyrations .
Investments more immune to fluctuations would be safer but they offer very low returns and CalPERS could not safely meet its lofty earnings goal — an average of 7 % a year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of conflicting demands and priorities , driven by an official policy of providing generous , inflation-adjusted pensions for government workers , bolstered by the political clout of public employee unions .
CalPERS desperately needs an escape route and has chosen the perilous path of debt .
It plans to borrow billions of dollars — as much as $ 80 billion — to fatten its investment portfolio in fingers-crossed hopes that earnings gains will outstrip borrowing costs .
It mirrors the recent and risky practice of local governments borrowing heavily to pay their pension @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ More assets refers to a plan to use leverage , or borrowing , to increase the base of the assets generating returns in the portfolio , ” the system ’ s chief investment officer , Ben Meng , wrote in the Wall Street Journalrecently .
“ Leverage allows CalPERS to take advantage of low interest rates by borrowing and using those funds to acquire assets with potentially higher returns.
” What could possibly go wrong ?
The new scheme is an implicit admission that CalPERS can ’ t meet its 7 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vagaries of the market .
“ There are only a few asset classes with a long-term expected return clearing the 7 % hurdle , ” Meng wrote .
Perhaps , then , the real problem is the 7 % goal , much higher than those of private industry pension plans .
The author of the above article is appropriately skeptical .
But it ’ s a safe bet that both public sector unions and local government officials are applauding CalPERS ’ move because it buys them more time on the gravy train .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ an existential financial crisis forces the current national government to fold a pension bailout into a broader “ everything bailout ” or a newly-installed Democrat administration starts its reign by rewarding the public sector unions that helped elect it with a sector-specific bailout .
Both of these hopes are completely plausible , so it ’ s hard to fault CalPERS ’ logic .
But from a bigger-picture perspective , this kind of moral hazard appears to sit firmly at the intersection of greed and cowardice and is exactly the kind of thing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

BY JOHN RUBINO
Say you’re running a big pension fund that – according to the politicians who are handing out ultra-generous benefits to public sector employee voters – has to generate 7% returns in order to meet the resulting obligations. But the bonds you used to rely on now yield between 0% and 2%, depending on how far out on the yield (that is, risk) curve you’re willing to go.
Stocks, meanwhile, have been rising, but can also go way down. You remember the near-death experiences of 2008 and this past March, and you never, ever want to experience another such nightmare.
So what do you do? Well, if you’re extremely brave and your family already has plenty of money, you stand up, tell your bosses that their goals are impossible to achieve, and hold your head high as security escorts you to the door.
If you’re less brave and/or rich, you might roll the dice and bet the farm on high risk/high potential return strategies, and just hope that it all works out. Worst case, you’ll collect another couple years of big paychecks before security comes for you.
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That’s what the biggest pension fund just decided to try.
CalPERS gambles on risky investment move The California Public Employees Retirement System, the nation’s largest pension trust, benefited greatly from the runup in stocks and other investments during the last few years, topping $400 billion early this year. CalPERS needed it because it was still reeling from a $100 billion decline in its investment portfolio during the previous decade’s Great Recession and was tapping state and local governments for ever-increasing, mandatory “contributions” to keep pensions flowing and reduce its immense “unfunded liability.” But it faced a backlash from local officials who said vital services were being cut to make their CalPERS payments. Just when CalPERS appeared to be climbing out of its hole, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted early this year, sending the economy into a tailspin. Virtually overnight, the fund saw its value take a $69 billion hit as the stock market — CalPERS’ biggest investment sector — tanked. Stocks have since recovered, but CalPERS is still down about $13 billion from its high early this year. Further investment erosions would, almost automatically, trigger even greater CalPERS demands for contributions from government employers, but the recession is also eating into their tax revenues, creating substantial budget deficits. It underscores CalPERS’ vulnerability to capital market gyrations. Investments more immune to fluctuations would be safer but they offer very low returns and CalPERS could not safely meet its lofty earnings goal — an average of 7% a year. It’s a vicious circle of conflicting demands and priorities, driven by an official policy of providing generous, inflation-adjusted pensions for government workers, bolstered by the political clout of public employee unions. CalPERS desperately needs an escape route and has chosen the perilous path of debt. It plans to borrow billions of dollars — as much as $80 billion — to fatten its investment portfolio in fingers-crossed hopes that earnings gains will outstrip borrowing costs. It mirrors the recent and risky practice of local governments borrowing heavily to pay their pension bills via “pension obligation bonds.” “More assets refers to a plan to use leverage, or borrowing, to increase the base of the assets generating returns in the portfolio,” the system’s chief investment officer, Ben Meng, wrote in the Wall Street Journalrecently. “Leverage allows CalPERS to take advantage of low interest rates by borrowing and using those funds to acquire assets with potentially higher returns.” What could possibly go wrong? The new scheme is an implicit admission that CalPERS can’t meet its 7% mark without increasing its exposure to the vagaries of the market. “There are only a few asset classes with a long-term expected return clearing the 7% hurdle,” Meng wrote. Perhaps, then, the real problem is the 7% goal, much higher than those of private industry pension plans.
The author of the above article is appropriately skeptical. But it’s a safe bet that both public sector unions and local government officials are applauding CalPERS’ move because it buys them more time on the gravy train.
The near-universal hope is now that either an existential financial crisis forces the current national government to fold a pension bailout into a broader “everything bailout” or a newly-installed Democrat administration starts its reign by rewarding the public sector unions that helped elect it with a sector-specific bailout.
Both of these hopes are completely plausible, so it’s hard to fault CalPERS’ logic. But from a bigger-picture perspective, this kind of moral hazard appears to sit firmly at the intersection of greed and cowardice and is exactly the kind of thing that kills both pension funds and entire societies.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-23--What a Strange Coincidence……The Deadliest Cities For Blacks In the U.S. Are ALL Controlled By Democr

What a Strange Coincidence……The Deadliest Cities For Blacks In the U.S. Are ALL Controlled By Democrats

Considerable debate swirls over around crime , poverty and America ’ s cities – with politicians suddenly blaming each other , and generalizations flying .
Here are facts , which help deliver the truth .
First , while 535 members of Congress feud and fume over how much federal money to spend on federal entitlements , anti-crime , anti-poverty , anti-drug , and anti-social disintegration programs , a strong argument exists for focusing on local leaders – not Congress – for answers .
Mayors – more than US Senators , Congressmen , and even Governors – have a vested interest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are elected to lead .
Accordingly , this column reflects research into 55 cities , covering five studies , credible data bases , and mayoral records .
The findings are arresting – and a basis for rethinking how to pull America ’ s worst cities out of darkness .
Notably , Americans of all ages live in cities .
Pew ’ s Research Center reports 97 percent of US counties – and cities – saw an increase of 65-and-older populations since 2010 , a trend that is accelerating .
Older Americans are affected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What did I discover ?
America is experiencing the best economy in 50 years , lifting every major minority group with record low unemployment , growth , dollar valuation , and accelerating wages .
This should turn the tide in America ’ s cities – but the turn is slow .
Instead , we are witnessing higher homelessness in “ sanctuary cities , ” and policy stagnation across major impoverished , often unsafe cities – Baltimore to Buffalo , Birmingham to Brownsville .
Fact : The top-ten American cities for homelessness are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illegal immigrants , do not cooperate with federal law enforcement , and raise the price of low-rent housing for their citizens .
In this group are Los Angeles ( 55,000 homeless ) , Seattle ( 12,000 ) , San Diego ( 9,000 ) , San Jose ( 7,000 ) , San Francisco ( 6,000 ) , and Las Vegas ( 6,000 ) .
So , one policy misfire is not thinking out implications of opposition to border security , while sheltering illegal migrants and blocking deportation of those facing final orders .
Another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funding will stop the inflow of illegal migration ; actually , offering safe harbor is having the opposite effect .
Bigger discoveries were made .
Of the top-ten “ most dangerous cities ” in America , according to Forbes , all have Democratic mayors .
Those cities are Detroit , St. Louis , Oakland , Memphis , Birmingham , Atlanta , Baltimore , Stockton , Cleveland and Buffalo .
Race may have little to do with it , although poverty and unemployment are tied to violent crime prevalence .
Roughly half the mayors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ half African American .
Seven of ten appear in another study of America ’ s top-25 “ most dangerous ” cities , which tracks the first adding Kansas City , Little Rock , Milwaukee , Rockford ( IL ) , Albuquerque , Springfield ( MO ) , Indianapolis , San Bernardino , Anchorage , Nashville , Lansing , New Orleans , Minneapolis , Chicago , Houston , Hartford ( CT ) , Chattanooga , and Beaumont ( TX ) , dropping Birmingham , Atlanta and Buffalo .
And of the top 25 “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and all but one have poverty rates between 18 to 39 percent .
The national average is 12.3 percent .
Of the top 25 “ most dangerous ” American cities , on top of poverty between 18 and 39 percent , most have unemployment between 4.4 and 9.3 percent .
The national average is 3.7 percent .
So , these Democrat mayors – with good intention – are leading cities deep in poverty , weak on tax base , infrastructure , employers , trained citizens , and policies to attract corporate investment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ manslaughter , robbery and aggravated assault .
Two last data sets stand out .
They relate to cities deemed “ least healthy , ” based on available health care , clean environment , and personal fitness .
The first includes Detroit and Memphis , adding Brownsville ( TX ) , Laredo ( TX ) , Augusta ( GA ) , Shreveport ( LA ) , Gulfport ( MS ) , Fort Smith ( AR ) , Jackson ( MI ) , and Corpus Christi ( TX ) .
All are led by Democrat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The second list of “ least healthy , ” on different data , include Shreveport , adding Beckley ( WV ) , Pine Bluff ( AK – with a crime rate 383 percent higher than average ) , Hammond ( LA ) , Mobile ( AL ) , Albany ( GA ) , Monroe ( LA ) , Florence ( SC ) , Gadson ( AL ) , and Macon ( GA ) .
All but two are Democrat-led .
So , what does this tell us ?
On the numbers , ten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ten homeless cities are sanctuary cities , all led by Democrats .
Second , the top-ten “ most dangerous ” are led by Democrats .
Third , the top-25 “ most dangerous ” are mostly Democrat-led , and among the poorest and least employed , with weak infrastructure , tax base and incentives for private investment .
Fourth , among the 25 “ most dangerous , ” most face stifling poverty of 18 and 39 percent , against the national average of 12 .
3 percent .
These Democrat-led cities are America ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these cities suffer unemployment rates from 4.4 and 9.3 percent , versus 3.7 nationally .
Sixth , of the 20 “ least healthy ” cities , all but four are Democrat-led .
Seventh , while these mayors wrestle difficult issues , most oppose policies promoted by President Trump that are bringing prosperity to the rest of the country , such as lower taxes , less regulation , incentives for business investment , stronger law enforcement , cooperation with federal immigration officials , border security , comprehensive anti-drug policies , and local responsibility for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are in anti-gun coalitions , focused on restricting Second Amendment rights , favoring policies at cross-purposes with allowing citizens to protect themselves .
While each is different , many favor gun-control , bans on concealed carry and higher minimum wages – all proven misfires .
Ninth , taken as a whole – the mayors are pursuing conflicted policies , on the numbers not breaking cycles of intergenerational crime , poverty , unemployment , dependence , employers fleeing tax burdens , untrained employees , accessible private health care , environmental stewardship and personal fitness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cities can do better .
That is what democracy is for .
If the policies and leadership are not working , there is an option – especially as America ’ s economy is thriving and cities are seeing a renaissance in investment , employment , income , health and safety : Elect new leaders .
The numbers are compelling , so are elections .
25 Most Dangerous Cities In The US In 2020

by Venus230
amac.us/americas-25-worst-cities-are-democrat-led-the-answer-new-leaders/
Considerable debate swirls over around crime, poverty and America’s cities – with politicians suddenly blaming each other, and generalizations flying. Here are facts, which help deliver the truth.
First, while 535 members of Congress feud and fume over how much federal money to spend on federal entitlements, anti-crime, anti-poverty, anti-drug, and anti-social disintegration programs, a strong argument exists for focusing on local leaders – not Congress – for answers.
Mayors – more than US Senators, Congressmen, and even Governors – have a vested interest in finding solutions for the cities they are elected to lead. Accordingly, this column reflects research into 55 cities, covering five studies, credible data bases, and mayoral records.
The findings are arresting – and a basis for rethinking how to pull America’s worst cities out of darkness. Notably, Americans of all ages live in cities. Pew’s Research Center reports 97 percent of US counties – and cities – saw an increase of 65-and-older populations since 2010, a trend that is accelerating. Older Americans are affected by these facts, along with younger.
What did I discover? America is experiencing the best economy in 50 years, lifting every major minority group with record low unemployment, growth, dollar valuation, and accelerating wages. This should turn the tide in America’s cities – but the turn is slow.
Instead, we are witnessing higher homelessness in “sanctuary cities,” and policy stagnation across major impoverished, often unsafe cities – Baltimore to Buffalo, Birmingham to Brownsville.
Fact: The top-ten American cities for homelessness are sanctuary cities, which offer refuge to illegal immigrants, do not cooperate with federal law enforcement, and raise the price of low-rent housing for their citizens. In this group are Los Angeles (55,000 homeless), Seattle (12,000), San Diego (9,000), San Jose (7,000), San Francisco (6,000), and Las Vegas (6,000).
So, one policy misfire is not thinking out implications of opposition to border security, while sheltering illegal migrants and blocking deportation of those facing final orders. Another policy misfire is assuming that one-time shelter funding will stop the inflow of illegal migration; actually, offering safe harbor is having the opposite effect.
Bigger discoveries were made. Of the top-ten “most dangerous cities” in America, according to Forbes, all have Democratic mayors. Those cities are Detroit, St. Louis, Oakland, Memphis, Birmingham, Atlanta, Baltimore, Stockton, Cleveland and Buffalo.
Race may have little to do with it, although poverty and unemployment are tied to violent crime prevalence. Roughly half the mayors in this top-ten analysis were Caucasian, half African American.
Seven of ten appear in another study of America’s top-25 “most dangerous” cities, which tracks the first adding Kansas City, Little Rock, Milwaukee, Rockford (IL), Albuquerque, Springfield (MO), Indianapolis, San Bernardino, Anchorage, Nashville, Lansing, New Orleans, Minneapolis, Chicago, Houston, Hartford (CT), Chattanooga, and Beaumont (TX), dropping Birmingham, Atlanta and Buffalo.
And of the top 25 “most dangerous,” most are Democrat-led and all but one have poverty rates between 18 to 39 percent. The national average is 12.3 percent.
Of the top 25 “most dangerous” American cities, on top of poverty between 18 and 39 percent, most have unemployment between 4.4 and 9.3 percent. The national average is 3.7 percent.
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So, these Democrat mayors – with good intention – are leading cities deep in poverty, weak on tax base, infrastructure, employers, trained citizens, and policies to attract corporate investment. They lead the nation in murder, manslaughter, robbery and aggravated assault.
Two last data sets stand out. They relate to cities deemed “least healthy,” based on available health care, clean environment, and personal fitness. The first includes Detroit and Memphis, adding Brownsville (TX), Laredo (TX), Augusta (GA), Shreveport (LA), Gulfport (MS), Fort Smith (AR), Jackson (MI), and Corpus Christi (TX). All are led by Democrat mayors, except Corpus and Gulfport.
The second list of “least healthy,” on different data, include Shreveport, adding Beckley (WV), Pine Bluff (AK – with a crime rate 383 percent higher than average), Hammond (LA), Mobile (AL), Albany (GA), Monroe (LA), Florence (SC), Gadson (AL), and Macon (GA). All but two are Democrat-led.
So, what does this tell us? On the numbers, ten incontrovertible things.
First, the top ten homeless cities are sanctuary cities, all led by Democrats.
Second, the top-ten “most dangerous” are led by Democrats.
Third, the top-25 “most dangerous” are mostly Democrat-led, and among the poorest and least employed, with weak infrastructure, tax base and incentives for private investment.
Fourth, among the 25 “most dangerous,” most face stifling poverty of 18 and 39 percent, against the national average of 12. 3 percent. These Democrat-led cities are America’s poorest.
Fifth, most of these cities suffer unemployment rates from 4.4 and 9.3 percent, versus 3.7 nationally.
Sixth, of the 20 “least healthy” cities, all but four are Democrat-led.
Seventh, while these mayors wrestle difficult issues, most oppose policies promoted by President Trump that are bringing prosperity to the rest of the country, such as lower taxes, less regulation, incentives for business investment, stronger law enforcement, cooperation with federal immigration officials, border security, comprehensive anti-drug policies, and local responsibility for declining tax base.
Eighth, most are in anti-gun coalitions, focused on restricting Second Amendment rights, favoring policies at cross-purposes with allowing citizens to protect themselves. While each is different, many favor gun-control, bans on concealed carry and higher minimum wages – all proven misfires.
Ninth, taken as a whole – the mayors are pursuing conflicted policies, on the numbers not breaking cycles of intergenerational crime, poverty, unemployment, dependence, employers fleeing tax burdens, untrained employees, accessible private health care, environmental stewardship and personal fitness.
Tenth, in closing: These cities can do better. That is what democracy is for. If the policies and leadership are not working, there is an option – especially as America’s economy is thriving and cities are seeing a renaissance in investment, employment, income, health and safety: Elect new leaders. The numbers are compelling, so are elections.