investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--What else could go wrong for the Banks of Italy?

We are overdue a look at the state of play for an old and familiar friend .
Except it is the sort of friend written about by Paul Simon .
It has been like a game of snakes and ladders except without the ladders .
Ironically the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy chose March 18th as the day to rebut this .
Yes the day central bankers around the world were crossing their fingers that the US Federal Reserve was going to step in and rescue the world financial system .
That was in line with the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shares in Monte Paschi would be a good investment .
Anyway let me hand you over to Deputy Governor Luigi Federico Signorini who wrote to the New York Times to say .
The collapses ?
The bailouts ?
The share price falls ?
I must credit him in one regard as it takes a lot of chutzpah to mention “ Asset Quality ” when discussing the Italian banks .
Also the sharper-eyed maybe be wondering where the problem was moved too ?
That game of pass the parcel must have seen the music @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy off someone and it is still a lot .
Is it rude to point out that with the surge in the Italian bond market ( the ten-year is 1.1 % ) that the banks have been partially deprived of the one area where they could have made some money ?
The next bit has been highlighted by me in parts .
As the whole sector is extraordinary I am not sure what excluding it leaves you .
Also we have been expecting benefits from “ restructuring and consolidation ” for a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors could hardly get much worse…..
Bringing it up to date On Tuesday the ratings agency DBRS Morningstar took a look .
How are the profits our Deputy Governor was so keen on doing ?
Next we find something really rather familiar from the overall banking saga .
So bad loans become sour loans , NPLs and now LLPs .
That is revealing in itself .
The process leaves the ratings agency worried about next year .
So that ’ s a yes then .
The situation is complicated as we wait for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down .
I know there are elements of stereotyping here so apologies for that , but can anyone genuinely say that they are not wondering how many of these loans are fraudulent ?
Like the way the Mafia took control of the extra virgin olive oil market , basically if you bought some from Italy your chances of actually getting it were 50/50 .
Here is the explicit view on what is expected to happen next .
It produced a long read on banking and seemed to try to avoid Italy but from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unicredit had been presented as a type of national champion and there was also a rather familiar development .
Which financial crisis please ?
Let us take a look at what Queen might describe as “ you ’ re my best friend ” in this saga which is Monte Paschi .
According to Johannes Borgen it plans this .
Please hold fire on the issue of there being yet another rescue vehicle for the Italian banks for now and stay with Monte Paschi .
In a nurshell that is the Monte Paschi saga @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you are always missing something and sometimes quite a lot .
Now let me return to the subject of rescue vehicles .
Here is a @ gianluca1 describing one effort .
Then there was Atlante2 as well .
More recently as he points out there has been Amco .
Fitch Ratings looked at Amco at the end of May and I think we have found someone with a sense of humour .
Patient approach sums up the whole episode really……Or to put it another way the can they kicked landed in the middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would be like some sort of time warp meaning Apollo 13 landed in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic .

by Shaun Richards
We are overdue a look at the state of play for an old and familiar friend. Except it is the sort of friend written about by Paul Simon.
Hello darkness, my old friend
I’ve come to talk with you again
It has been like a game of snakes and ladders except without the ladders. Ironically the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy chose March 18th as the day to rebut this. Yes the day central bankers around the world were crossing their fingers that the US Federal Reserve was going to step in and rescue the world financial system. That was in line with the time when Prime Minister Renzi told investors that shares in Monte Paschi would be a good investment. Anyway let me hand you over to Deputy Governor Luigi Federico Signorini who wrote to the New York Times to say.
Plenty of evidence points to a substantial strengthening of Italian banks in the recent years.
The collapses? The bailouts? The share price falls?
I must credit him in one regard as it takes a lot of chutzpah to mention “Asset Quality” when discussing the Italian banks. Also the sharper-eyed maybe be wondering where the problem was moved too?
The share of NPLs in banks’ total loans continues to fall, also thanks to large-scale disposals made by a large number of banks.
That game of pass the parcel must have seen the music stop.
Also the ECB had to buy off someone and it is still a lot.
Sovereign exposures. At the end of January banks’ holdings of sovereign bonds amounted to €316 billion, or 9.8 per cent of total assets; in early 2015 they peaked at €403 billion.
Is it rude to point out that with the surge in the Italian bond market ( the ten-year is 1.1%) that the banks have been partially deprived of the one area where they could have made some money?
Profitability. In 2019 the profitability of Italian banks was broadly in line with that of European peers
That bad eh?
The next bit has been highlighted by me in parts.
While the annualized ROE, at 5.0 per cent net of extraordinary components, is still below the estimated cost of equity, benefits are expected from ongoing restructuring and consolidation. The process is especially string among small cooperative banks, and the new framework is expected to strengthen their capacity to attract investors.
As the whole sector is extraordinary I am not sure what excluding it leaves you. Also we have been expecting benefits from “restructuring and consolidation” for a decade now. Finally their ability to attract investors could hardly get much worse…..
Bringing it up to date
On Tuesday the ratings agency DBRS Morningstar took a look. How are the profits our Deputy Governor was so keen on doing?
In H1 2020, Italian banks (UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Banco BPM, Banca MPS, UBI Banca, Credito
Valtellinese, and BP Sondrio) reported an aggregate net loss of EUR 464 million compared to a net profit
of EUR 6.2 billion in the same period of 2019.
Next we find something really rather familiar from the overall banking saga.
For the time being, the bulk of LLPs ( Loan Loss Provisions ) is still related to Stage 1 and Stage 2 loans, as the relief measures currently in place have been preventing the build-up of new NPLs. However, when these support
measures began to ease, we would expect a more significant migration of Stage 1 loans into Stage 2
(i.e. credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition) and Stage 3 loans.
So bad loans become sour loans, NPLs and now LLPs. That is revealing in itself. The process leaves the ratings agency worried about next year.
When comparing with some European peers with higher provisioning levels, we consider it
possible that larger provisions may be required for Italian banks, should default rates from performing
loans increase more than expected.
So that’s a yes then.
The situation is complicated as we wait for the government Covid response plays to wind down.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Based on the latest data released by the Bank of Italy, as of July 24, the applications for a debt
moratorium from households and companies reached 2.7 million, up from around 660,000 requests
reported in early April, but not significantly changed compared to end-May and mid-June . The outstanding loans under moratoria amounted to EUR 297 billion, equivalent to around 15% of the total
performing loans at end-2019.
Plus this.
In contrast, we have observed the requests for loans backed by a State guarantee surging remarkably in
the same period. As of August 4, the requests for State-guaranteed loans amounted to over 944,000,
corresponding to a total consideration of around EUR 77 billion, or approximately 4% of the total net
customer loans at end-2019.
I know there are elements of stereotyping here so apologies for that, but can anyone genuinely say that they are not wondering how many of these loans are fraudulent? Like the way the Mafia took control of the extra virgin olive oil market, basically if you bought some from Italy your chances of actually getting it were 50/50.
Here is the explicit view on what is expected to happen next.
Whilst the combination of moratoria and State guaranteed loans represent strong relief measures in the
near term, we still believe that the currently challenging scenario will result in a rise in NPLs starting
from 2021, once the moratoria have expired. We note that in Q2 2020 some of loans under moratoria
moved to Stage 2 from Stage 1.
The Financial Times
It produced a long read on banking and seemed to try to avoid Italy but from time to time it popped up.
Centuries-old national champions Barclays (€17.4bn), Deutsche Bank (€15.6bn) and Italy’s UniCredit (€17.2bn) are collectively worth less than Zoom, the $72bn (€61bn) videoconferencing company founded in 2011.
Unicredit had been presented as a type of national champion and there was also a rather familiar development.
In July, Italy’s largest retail lender Intesa Sanpaolo succeeded in a €4.2bn hostile takeover of local rival UBI Banca, marking the largest European banking deal since the financial crisis.
Which financial crisis please?
Comment
Let us take a look at what Queen might describe as “you’re my best friend” in this saga which is Monte Paschi. According to Johannes Borgen it plans this.
1) Sell defaulted loans to AMCO (with the EC’s blessing, hum.) 2) Take a capital hit and risk being below cap requirement. 3) But that’s ok, because there will be less loan losses because of the sale of defaulted loans to AMCO
Please hold fire on the issue of there being yet another rescue vehicle for the Italian banks for now and stay with Monte Paschi.
Sounds good? Well, there’s a slight problem here. In H1 2020, Monte took a total 520m€ of loan losses. Of the 520m, only 95m were from defaulted loans. Can anyone explain how the sale to AMCO will significantly reduce provisions? Because I’m missing something here.
In a nurshell that is the Monte Paschi saga because if you go through the numbers you are always missing something and sometimes quite a lot.
Now let me return to the subject of rescue vehicles. Here is a @gianluca1 describing one effort.
In 2016 Ita banks created a fund (Atlante) to help few bad banks clean their loan book from NPLs It was funded by all banks pro rata Result: catastrophic risk of 2/3 banks was extended to all good banks due to perceived unlimited underwriting of risk of bad banks.
Then there was Atlante2 as well. More recently as he points out there has been Amco.
few years ago…it is the former SGA used to liquidate Banco di Napoli NPL
Fitch Ratings looked at Amco at the end of May and I think we have found someone with a sense of humour.
AMCO is a debt purchaser and servicer with nearly EUR25 billion of assets under management and a leading position in the unlikely-to-pay (UTP) loans sector.
Also.
Support Incentives: Government incentives supporting AMCO are underpinned by the fact that AMCO’s viability is central to its “patient approach” to the management of non-performing loans.
Patient approach sums up the whole episode really……Or to put it another way the can they kicked landed in the middle of the next crisis. I guess it would be like some sort of time warp meaning Apollo 13 landed in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Gold and Consumer Sentiment – The Linkage

Gold is up this year , which is not news to anyone likely to be reading this .
And it is going up even faster than the stock market .
The effect of that difference in relative performance is that the DJIA/Gold Ratio in this week ’ s chart has been falling .
And it turns out that a movement like this historically tends to match what is happening in the public ’ s mood .
That chart also includes the University of Michigan ’ s Consumer Sentiment Index , data for which can be found here .
The two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saying it another way , as confidence falls , people turn away from the stock market and toward gold .
And as confidence rebounds , they do the opposite which means that in a rising sentiment environment the stock market will rise faster than gold prices .
A lot of analysts look at the DJIA/Gold Ratio with the relationship inverted , meaning the Gold/DJIA Ratio .
And they conclude that since it got to much more extreme levels in 2011 and 1980 , that there is a lot more room for it to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for gold prices .
That may turn out to be true , but given what we see in this week ’ s chart it would mean that consumer sentiment would have to keep falling , if the relationship is going to continue .
It makes sense that we have seen a drop in consumer confidence in 2020 .
The Covid pandemic has understandably affected confidence , given that the spike in the unemployment rate means a lot of people can not make rent or put food on the table .
So the reaction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bet on the DJIA/Gold Ratio and the Consumer Sentiment Index both continuing to fall would be to bet that we have not already seen the worst .
And that is something which the Covid infection rate data do not seem to support .
So if sentiment can not get worse , it can only get better .
And that should mean rising numbers in the months ahead for the University of Michigan ’ s index .
It should thus also mean a rising plot for the DJIA/Gold Ratio , meaning that stocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your beliefs carefully .
If you think that gold is going to outperform the stock market in the months ahead ( making the DJIA/Gold Ratio fall ) , then you had better also believe that consumer sentiment is going to get worse .
Or else you have to believe that this well-established relationship between the two sets of data is going to stop working as it typically has .

by Tom McClellan
Gold is up this year, which is not news to anyone likely to be reading this. And it is going up even faster than the stock market. The effect of that difference in relative performance is that the DJIA/Gold Ratio in this week’s chart has been falling.
And it turns out that a movement like this historically tends to match what is happening in the public’s mood. That chart also includes the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, data for which can be found here.
The two plots move up and down together. Saying it another way, as confidence falls, people turn away from the stock market and toward gold. And as confidence rebounds, they do the opposite which means that in a rising sentiment environment the stock market will rise faster than gold prices.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A lot of analysts look at the DJIA/Gold Ratio with the relationship inverted, meaning the Gold/DJIA Ratio. And they conclude that since it got to much more extreme levels in 2011 and 1980, that there is a lot more room for it to run, and thus this is bullish for gold prices. That may turn out to be true, but given what we see in this week’s chart it would mean that consumer sentiment would have to keep falling, if the relationship is going to continue.
It makes sense that we have seen a drop in consumer confidence in 2020. The Covid pandemic has understandably affected confidence, given that the spike in the unemployment rate means a lot of people cannot make rent or put food on the table. So the reaction is understandable.
In order to make the bet on the DJIA/Gold Ratio and the Consumer Sentiment Index both continuing to fall would be to bet that we have not already seen the worst. And that is something which the Covid infection rate data do not seem to support. So if sentiment cannot get worse, it can only get better. And that should mean rising numbers in the months ahead for the University of Michigan’s index. It should thus also mean a rising plot for the DJIA/Gold Ratio, meaning that stocks would outperform gold.
So, plant your beliefs carefully. If you think that gold is going to outperform the stock market in the months ahead (making the DJIA/Gold Ratio fall), then you had better also believe that consumer sentiment is going to get worse. Or else you have to believe that this well-established relationship between the two sets of data is going to stop working as it typically has.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--ICAN ( Informed Consent Action Network ) Gets CDC to Admit They Have No Clue On Vaccine Safety

✖On July 29 , 2020 , after months of false claims and objections , the CDC finally conceded that it could not find a single study comparing health outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated children and that it “ has not conducted a study of health outcomes in vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations.
” ✖Parents , doctors , and scientists have , for decades , demanded that the CDC compare the health outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated children .
✖This is , in part , because as the increase in the CDC ’ s childhood vaccine schedule over the last 30 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ injections ( plus 2 injections during pregnancy ) has occurred in lockstep with the increase in the rate of autoimmune , developmental and neurological disorders in children from 12.8 % to 54 % .
✖The demand for this study has grown so great that even the Institute of Medicine ( IOM ) in 2013 issued a report stating that the CDC could and should perform this study , explaining that it “ is possible to make this comparison [ between vaccinated and unvaccinated children ] through analyses of patient information contained in large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Safety Datalink paid for by the CDC ] .
” ✖Incredibly , the CDC then spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars to have scientist , such as Dr. Stanley Plotkin , write a white paper , published in 2015 , on how to conduct this simple study .
✖To find out if this study recommended by the IOM 7 years ago has been done , our legal team , headed by Aaron Siri , submitted a FOIA request to the CDC on June 26 , 2020 demanding : “ All documents in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the health outcomes of children that have received vaccines with children that have never received any vaccines.
” That same day the CDC sent a letter stating it had placed this request on a “ complex processing queue ” because the CDC ’ s office processing this request “ expects to receive and review voluminous records in response to your request.
” ✖The CDC then issued another letter on July 6 , 2020 , this time objecting to the request as “ Broad ” and “ Vague ” because it “ lacks the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ] retrieve the information with a reasonable amount of effort , ” thereby again indicating there are so many studies it can not possibly compile them all .
Our legal team sidestepped the CDC ’ s objection by responding that the CDC need “ only provide the first twenty journal articles the CDC can identify which are responsive to the request.
” ✖Incredibly , the CDC responded on July 9 , 2020 by making yet another objection stating : “ Your request for ‘ …the first twenty… ’ is not sufficiently quantified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reasonable and adequate search.
” ✖Our attorneys were now about to have even more fun with the CDC .
On July 13 , 2020 , they responded to the CDC by stating : “ To clarify , we are seeking any responsive journal articles up to a quantity of 20 articles .
… We have [ therefore ] now limited the request to up to a maximum of 20 journal articles in the CDC ’ s possession which compare the health outcomes of children that have received vaccines with children that have never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resubmitted the original request again with slightly different wording to make sure the CDC had no escape hatch .
✖Well , by August 3 , 2020 , it appears that the CDC had had enough and knowing that we will sue them , as we have done in the past , they capitulated .
Behold their response in which they concede in black and white that they had nothing : “ A search of our records failed to reveal any documents pertaining to your request .
The CDC has not conducted a study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populations.
” ✖It is incredible that this simple study has not been published .
Or maybe the CDC did conduct but not publish the study because it did not provide the results they wanted .
Either way , the next time someone tells you that it is a “ myth ” or “ hoax ” to claim that the CDC has never conducted a vaccinated versus unvaccinated study , you can put this CDC response in their face .
✖The vaccines on the CDC ’ s childhood vaccine schedule given to babies during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 3,500 mcg of aluminum adjuvant , a known neurotoxic substance which can damage nerves and kills cells .
✖The dangers of aluminum based adjuvants have been well documented .
Animals injected with aluminum adjuvant , for example , suffer various neurological deficits .
In 2017 , ICAN even published a white paper summarizing the science which explains how aluminum adjuvant can cause neurological impairment when administered to babies .
✖Given the foregoing concern , a FOIA request was submitted to the National Institute of Health ( NIH ) requesting “ copies of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subcutaneous or intramuscular injection of aluminum adjuvant relied upon by the NIH to establish the safety of injecting infants and children with aluminum hydroxide , aluminum phosphate or amorphous aluminum hydroxyphosphate sulfate.
” ✖The NIH engaged in an extensive search that included having the following institutes within the NIH search for responsive studies : the NIH Office of Intramural Research ( OIR ) , the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases ( NIAID ) , and the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human ( NICHD ) .
✖But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finally conceded that “ no records responsive to your request were located.
” ✖This admission is incredible .
Despite injecting babies with thousands of micrograms of this toxic substance , known to cause cellular and neuronal death , the scientific medical brain trust of this country , the NIH , does not have a single study involving the injection of this substance that would support its safety .
This may be because all of the studies involving injection of aluminum adjuvant reflect its dangers .
✖On August 6 , 2020 , ICAN filed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refused to produce the emails of the CDC ’ s top personnel involved in addressing COVID-19 .
✖ICAN also filed a similar but more involved lawsuit against the NIH for its emails and other relevant documents regarding COVID-19 and a potential COVID-19 vaccine .
✖Just as the pharmaceutical companies will never rest when it comes to promoting and selling their vaccine products , we will never rest in exposing the truth regarding these products .

by Venus230
✖On July 29, 2020, after months of false claims and objections, the CDC finally conceded that it could not find a single study comparing health outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated children and that it “has not conducted a study of health outcomes in vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations.”
✖Parents, doctors, and scientists have, for decades, demanded that the CDC compare the health outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated children.
✖This is, in part, because as the increase in the CDC’s childhood vaccine schedule over the last 30 years from 8 vaccine injections to 50 vaccine injections (plus 2 injections during pregnancy) has occurred in lockstep with the increase in the rate of autoimmune, developmental and neurological disorders in children from 12.8% to 54%.
www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/images/schedule1989s.jpgJPG
www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html
www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pregnancy/downloads/immunizations-preg-chart.pdf
✖The demand for this study has grown so great that even the Institute of Medicine (IOM) in 2013 issued a report stating that the CDC could and should perform this study, explaining that it “is possible to make this comparison [between vaccinated and unvaccinated children] through analyses of patient information contained in large databases such as VSD [the Vaccine Safety Datalink paid for by the CDC].”
www.nap.edu/read/13563/chapter/2
✖Incredibly, the CDC then spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars to have scientist, such as Dr. Stanley Plotkin, write a white paper, published in 2015, on how to conduct this simple study.
youtu.be/n-64eHyESE4YouTube
www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/pdf/WhitePaperSafety_WEB.pdf
✖To find out if this study recommended by the IOM 7 years ago has been done, our legal team, headed by Aaron Siri, submitted a FOIA request to the CDC on June 26, 2020 demanding: “All documents in the CDC’s possession which compare the health outcomes of children that have received vaccines with children that have never received any vaccines.” That same day the CDC sent a letter stating it had placed this request on a “complex processing queue” because the CDC’s office processing this request “expects to receive and review voluminous records in response to your request.”
✖The CDC then issued another letter on July 6, 2020, this time objecting to the request as “Broad” and “Vague” because it “lacks the specificity needed to assist the agency [to] retrieve the information with a reasonable amount of effort,” thereby again indicating there are so many studies it cannot possibly compile them all. Our legal team sidestepped the CDC’s objection by responding that the CDC need “only provide the first twenty journal articles the CDC can identify which are responsive to the request.”
✖Incredibly, the CDC responded on July 9, 2020 by making yet another objection stating: “Your request for ‘…the first twenty…’ is not sufficiently quantified to allow the agency to conduct a reasonable and adequate search.”
✖Our attorneys were now about to have even more fun with the CDC. On July 13, 2020, they responded to the CDC by stating: “To clarify, we are seeking any responsive journal articles up to a quantity of 20 articles. … We have [therefore] now limited the request to up to a maximum of 20 journal articles in the CDC’s possession which compare the health outcomes of children that have received vaccines with children that have never received any vaccines.” Our attorneys also resubmitted the original request again with slightly different wording to make sure the CDC had no escape hatch.
✖Well, by August 3, 2020, it appears that the CDC had had enough and knowing that we will sue them, as we have done in the past, they capitulated. Behold their response in which they concede in black and white that they had nothing:
“A search of our records failed to reveal any documents pertaining to your request. The CDC has not conducted a study of health outcomes in vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations.”
www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020_08_03-20-02002-Final-Response-No-Records1.pdf
✖It is incredible that this simple study has not been published. Or maybe the CDC did conduct but not publish the study because it did not provide the results they wanted. Either way, the next time someone tells you that it is a “myth” or “hoax” to claim that the CDC has never conducted a vaccinated versus unvaccinated study, you can put this CDC response in their face.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
✖The vaccines on the CDC’s childhood vaccine schedule given to babies during the first six months of life include over 3,500 mcg of aluminum adjuvant, a known neurotoxic substance which can damage nerves and kills cells.
✖The dangers of aluminum based adjuvants have been well documented. Animals injected with aluminum adjuvant, for example, suffer various neurological deficits. In 2017, ICAN even published a white paper summarizing the science which explains how aluminum adjuvant can cause neurological impairment when administered to babies.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6223008/pdf/13223_2018_Article_305.pdf
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12026-013-8403-1
www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/ICAN-AluminumAdjuvant-Autism-2.pdf
✖Given the foregoing concern, a FOIA request was submitted to the National Institute of Health (NIH) requesting “copies of any human or animal studies involving the subcutaneous or intramuscular injection of aluminum adjuvant relied upon by the NIH to establish the safety of injecting infants and children with aluminum hydroxide, aluminum phosphate or amorphous aluminum hydroxyphosphate sulfate.”
✖The NIH engaged in an extensive search that included having the following institutes within the NIH search for responsive studies: the NIH Office of Intramural Research (OIR), the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human (NICHD).
✖But despite their extensive search, the NIH finally conceded that “no records responsive to your request were located.”
www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/20190719-HHS-Final-Response-IR0084-Appeal.pdf
✖This admission is incredible. Despite injecting babies with thousands of micrograms of this toxic substance, known to cause cellular and neuronal death, the scientific medical brain trust of this country, the NIH, does not have a single study involving the injection of this substance that would support its safety. This may be because all of the studies involving injection of aluminum adjuvant reflect its dangers.
✖On August 6, 2020, ICAN filed a lawsuit against the CDC after it refused to produce the emails of the CDC’s top personnel involved in addressing COVID-19.
www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/001-COMPLAINT-against-Centers-for-Disease-Control-and-Prevention.pdf
✖ICAN also filed a similar but more involved lawsuit against the NIH for its emails and other relevant documents regarding COVID-19 and a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
www.icandecide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/001-COMPLAINT.pdf
✖Just as the pharmaceutical companies will never rest when it comes to promoting and selling their vaccine products, we will never rest in exposing the truth regarding these products.
Georgia Coalition for Vaccine Choice www.georgiavaxchoice.org
www.facebook.com/VCHFGA/posts/1774471862717360/
web.archive.org/web/20200814113422if_/https://www.facebook.com/VCHFGA/posts/1774471862717360
archive.is/dCuNA


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Why Soros Just Called The Market A Bubble

In a previous post entitled “ Market Bubbles , ” I touched on George Soros ’ “ theory of reflexivity.
” Interestingly , MarketWatch discussed with George why he no longer participates in the “ bubble.
” The foundation of his argument comes from his previous work in “ Alchemy of Finance.
” To wit : Specifically , he eludes to his “ theory of reflexivity.
” Before we get into the issue of “ reflexivity , ” let me recap what a “ bubble ” is .
Bubbles Are About Psychology , Not Metrics Over the last few weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of valuations and forward returns .
However , it is not just valuations , but also the surge in corporate debt and declining profitability resulting from weak economic growth .
Historically , such a combination of factors is associated with previous “ bear markets.
” None of these fundamental concerns are currently a problem .
Despite the March selloff , 50-million unemployed , and a deep recession , the markets currently hover near all-time highs .
Such was a point George also confirmed : As shown in the chart below , the S @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upper 90 % of its historical valuation levels .
However , since stock market “ bubbles ” reflect speculation , greed , emotional biases , valuations only reflect those emotions .
As such , price becomes more reflective of psychology .
From a “ price perspective , ” the level of “ greed ” is on full display as the S & P 500 trades at the greatest deviation on record from its long-term exponential trend .
( Such is hard to reconcile given a 35 % correction just a few months ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise .
Notice that except for only 1929 , 2000 , and 2007 , every other major market crash occurred with valuations at levels LOWER than they are currently .
The chart , courtesy of Finviz.com , compares the year-to-date performance of the constituents of the S & P 500 .
The bigger the “ bubble size , ” the larger the market cap .
Not surprisingly , the largest bubbles belong to the “ mega-cap ” stocks responsible for a majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notice the vast majority of stocks still sport negative returns .
In other words , investors push valuations simply on “ momentum.
” As shown , since 2018 , the increase in stock prices is primarily attributable to “ valuation expansion.
” The basic disregard by investors over fundamental valuations is a reflection of the “ psychological ” bias now engulfing market participants .
However , being excessively “ bullish ” is not what causes the eventual reversion .
It is just the “ fuel ” that drives it .
No Bubble Is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crashes have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels .
Issues such as liquidity , government actions , monetary policy mistakes , recessions , or inflationary spikes are the culprits that trigger the “ reversion in sentiment.
” Importantly , the “ bubbles ” and “ busts ” are never the same .
“ It can be most reasonably assumed that markets are efficient enough that every bubble is significantly different than the previous one .
A new bubble will always be different from the previous one ( s ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices to extreme overvaluation levels if they are sure it is not repeating what led to the previous bubbles .
Comparing the current extreme overvaluation to the dotcom is intellectually silly .
I would argue that when comparisons to previous bubbles become most popular , it ’ s a reliable timing marker of the top in a current bubble .
As an analogy , no matter how thoroughly a fatal car crash is studied , there will still be other fatal car crashes .
Such is true even if we avoid all previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to any previous period in the market is rather pointless .
The current market is not like 1995 , 1999 , or 2007 ?
Valuations , economics , drivers , etc .
are all different from cycle to the next .
Most importantly , however , the financial markets adapt to the cause of the previous “ fatal crashes.
” However , that adaptation won ’ t prevent the next one .
Alan Greenspan , former chairman of the Federal Reserve , also noted the importance of investor behavior about both the buildup @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To wit : Credit Risk Is The Tell Just as it was in 2005 , we see much of the same behavior in the markets today .
One of the “ key arguments ” for continuing to chase stocks has been that “ low rates justifies taking on increased risk.
” Such was a point Mr. Greenspan obviously disagreed .
It ’ s not too hard to remember what happened next .
In the short-term , investors always believe they can escape the eventual reversions of excess .
In reality , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we can better understand Soros ’ “ theory of reflexivity.
” “ Financial markets , far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge , always provide a distorted view of reality .
The degree of distortion may vary from time to time .
Sometimes it ’ s quite insignificant , at other times , it is quite pronounced .
When there is a significant divergence between market prices and the underlying reality , there is a lack of equilibrium conditions .
I have developed a rudimentary theory of bubbles along these lines .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend .
When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception , it sets a boom-bust process in motion .
The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way .
If it is strong enough to survive these tests , it reinforces both the trend and the misconception .
Eventually , market expectations become so far removed from reality if forces people to recognize that a misconception is involved .
A twilight period ensues during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people lose faith , but the inertia sustains the prevailing trend .
As Chuck Prince , former head of Citigroup , said , ‘ As long as the music is playing , you ’ ve got to get up and dance .
We are still dancing.
’ Eventually , the markets reach a tipping point and the trend reverses ; it then becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite direction .
Typically bubbles have an asymmetric shape .
The boom is long and slow to start .
It accelerates gradually until it flattens out again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is short and steep because it involves the forced liquidation of unsound positions.
” The chart below is an example of asymmetric bubbles .
Soros ’ view on the pattern of bubbles is interesting because it changes the argument from a fundamental view to a technical view .
Prices reflect the psychology of the market , creating a feedback loop between the markets and fundamentals .
As Soros stated : The chart below utilizes Dr. Robert Shiller ’ s stock market data going back to 1900 on an inflation-adjusted basis .
I then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each major market correction and overlaid Soros ’ asymmetrical bubble shape .
There is currently much debate about the health of financial markets .
Can prices remain detached from the fundamentals long enough for the economic/earnings recession to catch up with prices ?
Maybe .
It has just never happened .
The speculative appetite for “ yield , ” which has been fostered by the Fed ’ s ongoing interventions and suppressed interest rates , remains a powerful force in the short term .
Furthermore , investors have now been successfully “ trained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invested ” for “ fear of missing out.
” The increase in speculative risks , combined with excess leverage , leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction .
The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply the catalyst that starts the “ panic for the exit.
” It is reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now-famous words : “ Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau.
” Of course , that is most likely why Soros is choosing not to participate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boom cycles are nothing new .
However , he also knows how they end .

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
In a previous post entitled “Market Bubbles,” I touched on George Soros’ “theory of reflexivity.” Interestingly, MarketWatch discussed with George why he no longer participates in the “bubble.” The foundation of his argument comes from his previous work in “Alchemy of Finance.” To wit:
“Pivoting to his legendary approach to financial markets, Soros acknowledges that investors are in a bubble fueled by Fed liquidity, which creates a situation that he now avoids. He explained that ‘two simple propositions’ make up the framework that has historically given him an advantage. However, since he shared it in his book, ‘Alchemy of Finance,’ the advantage is gone.” – MarketWatch
Specifically, he eludes to his “theory of reflexivity.”
“One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always incomplete and distorted. That is fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate, and distorted views lead to inappropriate actions. That is reflexivity.”
Before we get into the issue of “reflexivity,” let me recap what a “bubble” is.
Bubbles Are About Psychology, Not Metrics
“Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.”
Over the last few weeks, I have touched on the impact of valuations and forward returns. However, it is not just valuations, but also the surge in corporate debt and declining profitability resulting from weak economic growth. Historically, such a combination of factors is associated with previous “bear markets.”
None of these fundamental concerns are currently a problem. Despite the March selloff, 50-million unemployed, and a deep recession, the markets currently hover near all-time highs.
Such was a point George also confirmed:
“We are in a crisis, the worst crisis in my lifetime since the Second World War. I would describe it as a revolutionary moment when the range of possibilities is much greater than in normal times. What is inconceivable in normal times becomes not only possible but actually happens. People are disoriented and scared. They do things that are bad for them and for the world.”- George Soros
As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 is trading in the upper 90% of its historical valuation levels.
However, since stock market “bubbles” reflect speculation, greed, emotional biases, valuations only reflect those emotions. As such, price becomes more reflective of psychology.
From a “price perspective,” the level of “greed” is on full display as the S&P 500 trades at the greatest deviation on record from its long-term exponential trend. (Such is hard to reconcile given a 35% correction just a few months ago.)
In other words, bubbles can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise. Notice that except for only 1929, 2000, and 2007, every other major market crash occurred with valuations at levels LOWER than they are currently.
A Basic Disregard
The chart, courtesy of Finviz.com, compares the year-to-date performance of the constituents of the S&P 500. The bigger the “bubble size,” the larger the market cap. Not surprisingly, the largest bubbles belong to the “mega-cap” stocks responsible for a majority of the market return. Importantly, notice the vast majority of stocks still sport negative returns.
In other words, investors push valuations simply on “momentum.” As shown, since 2018, the increase in stock prices is primarily attributable to “valuation expansion.”
The basic disregard by investors over fundamental valuations is a reflection of the “psychological” bias now engulfing market participants. However, being excessively “bullish” is not what causes the eventual reversion. It is just the “fuel” that drives it.
No Bubble Is Ever The Same
Historically, all market crashes have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels. Issues such as liquidity, government actions, monetary policy mistakes, recessions, or inflationary spikes are the culprits that trigger the “reversion in sentiment.”
Importantly, the “bubbles” and “busts” are never the same.
I previously quoted Bob Bronson on this point:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“It can be most reasonably assumed that markets are efficient enough that every bubble is significantly different than the previous one. A new bubble will always be different from the previous one(s). Such is since investors will only bid prices to extreme overvaluation levels if they are sure it is not repeating what led to the previous bubbles. Comparing the current extreme overvaluation to the dotcom is intellectually silly. I would argue that when comparisons to previous bubbles become most popular, it’s a reliable timing marker of the top in a current bubble. As an analogy, no matter how thoroughly a fatal car crash is studied, there will still be other fatal car crashes. Such is true even if we avoid all previous accident-causing mistakes.”
Comparing the current market to any previous period in the market is rather pointless. The current market is not like 1995, 1999, or 2007? Valuations, economics, drivers, etc. are all different from cycle to the next.
Most importantly, however, the financial markets adapt to the cause of the previous “fatal crashes.” However, that adaptation won’t prevent the next one.
Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, also noted the importance of investor behavior about both the buildup, and bust, of market bubbles. To wit:
“Thus, this vast increase in asset claims’ market value is partly the indirect result of investors accepting lower compensation for risk. Market participants too often view such an increase in market value as structural and permanent. To some extent, those higher values may be reflecting the increased flexibility and resilience of our economy. But what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices. Such is why history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low-risk premiums.” – Alan Greenspan, August 25th, 2005.
Credit Risk Is The Tell
Just as it was in 2005, we see much of the same behavior in the markets today. One of the “key arguments” for continuing to chase stocks has been that “low rates justifies taking on increased risk.” Such was a point Mr. Greenspan obviously disagreed.
“A decline in perceived risk is often self-reinforcing in that it encourages presumptions of prolonged stability and thus a willingness to reach over an ever-more extended period. But, because people are inherently risk-averse, risk premiums cannot decline indefinitely. Whatever the reason  for narrowing credit spreads, and they differ from episode to episode, history cautions that extended periods of low concern have invariably been followed by a reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets. Such developments reflect not only market dynamics but also the all-too-evident alternating and infectious bouts of human euphoria and distress and the instability they engender.” – Alan Greenspan, September 27th, 2005.
It’s not too hard to remember what happened next. In the short-term, investors always believe they can escape the eventual reversions of excess. In reality, they never do.
Soros’ Theory Of Reflexivity
With this background, we can better understand Soros’ “theory of reflexivity.”
“Financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times, it is quite pronounced. When there is a significant divergence between market prices and the underlying reality, there is a lack of equilibrium conditions. I have developed a rudimentary theory of bubbles along these lines. Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way. If it is strong enough to survive these tests, it reinforces both the trend and the misconception. Eventually, market expectations become so far removed from reality if forces people to recognize that a misconception is involved. A twilight period ensues during which doubts grow. More and more people lose faith, but the inertia sustains the prevailing trend. As Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup, said, ‘As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We are still dancing.’ Eventually, the markets reach a tipping point and the trend reverses; it then becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite direction. Typically bubbles have an asymmetric shape. The boom is long and slow to start. It accelerates gradually until it flattens out again during the twilight period. The bust is short and steep because it involves the forced liquidation of unsound positions.”
Asymmetry
The chart below is an example of asymmetric bubbles.
Soros’ view on the pattern of bubbles is interesting because it changes the argument from a fundamental view to a technical view. Prices reflect the psychology of the market, creating a feedback loop between the markets and fundamentals. As Soros stated:
“Financial markets do not play a purely passive role; they can also affect the so-called fundamentals they are supposed to reflect. These two functions that financial markets perform, work in opposite directions. In the passive or cognitive function, the fundamentals are supposed to determine market prices. In the active or manipulative function market, prices find ways of influencing the fundamentals. When both functions operate at the same time, they interfere with each other. The supposedly independent variable of one function is the dependent variable, so neither function has a truly independent variable. As a result, neither market prices nor the underlying reality is fully determined. Both suffer from an element of uncertainty that cannot be quantified.”
The chart below utilizes Dr. Robert Shiller’s stock market data going back to 1900 on an inflation-adjusted basis. I then took a look at the markets before each major market correction and overlaid Soros’ asymmetrical bubble shape.
Conclusion
There is currently much debate about the health of financial markets. Can prices remain detached from the fundamentals long enough for the economic/earnings recession to catch up with prices?
Maybe. It has just never happened.
The speculative appetite for “yield,” which has been fostered by the Fed’s ongoing interventions and suppressed interest rates, remains a powerful force in the short term. Furthermore, investors have now been successfully “trained” by the markets to “stay invested” for “fear of missing out.”
The increase in speculative risks, combined with excess leverage, leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction. The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply the catalyst that starts the “panic for the exit.”
It is reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now-famous words: “Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau.”
Of course, that is most likely why Soros is choosing not to participate.
[The Fed] flooded the markets with liquidity. The market is now sustained by two considerations. One is that it expects an even larger injection of fiscal stimulus than the $1.8 trillion CARES Act in the near future; the other is that Trump will announce a vaccine before the elections… …Recognizing this, I am now no longer a market participant.“
At 90-years of age, these boom cycles are nothing new. However, he also knows how they end.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Shadowgate Documentary Streaming LIVE

Shadowgate Documentary Streaming LIVE

Millie Weaver and her husband have just been arrested as they were releasing this documentary revealing the TREASON of the @ @ @ @ @ not a joke !
Please record this , download this and share this .
The @ @ @ @ @ seen it , got it and can testify about it the safer those who have @ @ @ @ @ line will be .

Katie Woodland
Millie Weaver and her husband have just been arrested as they were releasing this documentary revealing the TREASON of the Obama administration. This is not a joke! Please record this, download this and share this. The more people who’ve seen it, got it and can testify about it the safer those who have put their lives on the line will be.
www.youtube.com/channel/UCglVbeKF9JGMCt-RTUAW_TQ
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCcrgrO-XTok0-66tFqwT2QA
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--NVDA’s ER in 5 days will officially make them an AI company rather than a gaming hardware company

Historically , NVIDIA has been a hardware gaming company .
This is still the impression most people have even nowadays when they think of NVDA .
NVDA has been fighting this image , claiming that they ’ re just as much a software company or an AI company .
If you ’ ve been paying any attention then you ’ ll have noticed that this is true .
But what would “ officially ” make them primarily an “ AI ” company ?
By making more money from data center than from gaming .
Of course this is a generalization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ AI in their gaming GPUs ( DLSS 2.0 , RTX voice ) , but details don ’ t make headlines .
The big growth stories for NVDA have been data center and self driving cars .
Surely also their gaming revenue can be expected to grow but it ’ s not what has been driving NVDA ’ s high PE .
Self driving cars haven ’ t taken off yet , they ’ re even expected to decline due to covid , but the story is intact and NVDA has been making progress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already now turning into a gold mine for NVDA and it has been a big part of the stock ’ s valuation .
Expect the stock price to take a decent hit if their revenue from data center doesn ’ t meet expectations in their next ER ( 8/19 ) .
On the other hand , a beat could push the stock price past $ 500 , especially if data center revenue exceeds gaming revenue .
Obviously this doesn ’ t technically matter , it ’ s just one number passing the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but that ’ s not how these stonks work .
NVDA ’ s valuation is based on a story and not on numbers and if they ’ re starting to make more money from data center than from gaming we ’ re certainly entering the next chapter of that story .
So how could we get there ?
Let ’ s look first look at their first quarter of fiscal 2017 ( 2016 year ) .
This was when they first started disclosing revenue from data center .
At this point in time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data center 5 fold .
4 years later these are their revenue numbers for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 ( 2020 year ) : So within 4 years their revenue from data center increased 8 fold .
We ’ re almost quite there !
Now what could push revenue from data center above gaming revenue ?
According to their 10-Q for the last quarter , the A100 ( data center GPU ) is in full production , it ’ s fastest ramp in history and already contributed to Q1 revenue .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week after the release of the A100 .
NVDA claims that the A100 is up to 20x faster vs. the V100 and that this is the biggest generational performance leap ever .
So we have a yuge new product here and this is the first quarter in which they ’ re pumping it into the market at full steam .
Meanwhile this is the last quarter for their RTX 2000 series for gaming .
They ’ ve already stopped the production of these cards and the new cards are going to be announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helped drive demand for gaming gpus and NVDA seems to be doing just fine with clearing their inventory , but apart from people holding back with buying due to waiting for the 3000 series , summer historically isn ’ t a strong quarter for gaming because people spend more time outside .
Now onto the actual reason why data center revenue will increase even further .
The Mellanox acquisition closed on April 27 and starting with Q2 FY2021 , data center will incorporate Mellanox revenue .
Mellanox revenue last quarter was $ 429M @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their last quarter ’ s ER , data center revenue would already have exceeded gaming revenue .
What does this mean for NVDA ’ s ER in 5 days ?
Data center revenue should range from $ 1.5B to $ 2B .
Anything below $ 1.5B would certainly be a disappointment considering that it will include the revenue of Mellanox .
Of course that ’ s kind of baked in but I ’ m fully expecting the biggest beat NVDA has had in years , confirming the story the stock is trading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• leather jacket man says data center is now a $ 100B market and will be a $ 1T market in a few years • leather jacket man is trying to play a big role in that market • leather jacket man is delivering on that promise Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by Cygopat
Historically, NVIDIA has been a hardware gaming company. This is still the impression most people have even nowadays when they think of NVDA. NVDA has been fighting this image, claiming that they’re just as much a software company or an AI company. If you’ve been paying any attention then you’ll have noticed that this is true. But what would “officially” make them primarily an “AI” company? By making more money from data center than from gaming. Of course this is a generalization, they’re nowadays already implementing AI in their gaming GPUs (DLSS 2.0, RTX voice), but details don’t make headlines.
The big growth stories for NVDA have been data center and self driving cars. Surely also their gaming revenue can be expected to grow but it’s not what has been driving NVDA’s high PE. Self driving cars haven’t taken off yet, they’re even expected to decline due to covid, but the story is intact and NVDA has been making progress and partnerships.
Data center meanwhile is already now turning into a gold mine for NVDA and it has been a big part of the stock’s valuation. Expect the stock price to take a decent hit if their revenue from data center doesn’t meet expectations in their next ER (8/19). On the other hand, a beat could push the stock price past $500, especially if data center revenue exceeds gaming revenue. Obviously this doesn’t technically matter, it’s just one number passing the other which may have been priced in, but that’s not how these stonks work. NVDA’s valuation is based on a story and not on numbers and if they’re starting to make more money from data center than from gaming we’re certainly entering the next chapter of that story.
So how could we get there? Let’s look first look at their first quarter of fiscal 2017 (2016 year). This was when they first started disclosing revenue from data center.
Gaming $687M
Data Center $143M
At this point in time their revenue from gaming exceeded revenue from data center 5 fold. 4 years later these are their revenue numbers for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 (2020 year):
Gaming $1,339M
Data Center $1,141M
So within 4 years their revenue from data center increased 8 fold. We’re almost quite there! Now what could push revenue from data center above gaming revenue?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
According to their 10-Q for the last quarter, the A100 (data center GPU) is in full production, it’s fastest ramp in history and already contributed to Q1 revenue. This despite the report being released just one week after the release of the A100. NVDA claims that the A100 is up to 20x faster vs. the V100 and that this is the biggest generational performance leap ever. So we have a yuge new product here and this is the first quarter in which they’re pumping it into the market at full steam.
Meanwhile this is the last quarter for their RTX 2000 series for gaming. They’ve already stopped the production of these cards and the new cards are going to be announced in 2 weeks. Covid has certainly helped drive demand for gaming gpus and NVDA seems to be doing just fine with clearing their inventory, but apart from people holding back with buying due to waiting for the 3000 series, summer historically isn’t a strong quarter for gaming because people spend more time outside.
Now onto the actual reason why data center revenue will increase even further. The Mellanox acquisition closed on April 27 and starting with Q2 FY2021, data center will incorporate Mellanox revenue. Mellanox revenue last quarter was $429M. So had Mellanox revenue been included in their last quarter’s ER, data center revenue would already have exceeded gaming revenue.
What does this mean for NVDA’s ER in 5 days? Data center revenue should range from $1.5B to $2B. Anything below $1.5B would certainly be a disappointment considering that it will include the revenue of Mellanox. Of course that’s kind of baked in but I’m fully expecting the biggest beat NVDA has had in years, confirming the story the stock is trading on and sending it past $500.
tl;dr:
leather jacket man says data center is now a $100B market and will be a $1T market in a few years
leather jacket man is trying to play a big role in that market
leather jacket man is delivering on that promise
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Get ready for Iran to start seizing cargo ships

The Justice Department ( DOJ ) on Friday announced the U.S. government ’ s “ largest-ever ” seizure of fuel @ @ @ @ @ successful disruption of a multimillion-dollar shipment by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps , a designated @ @ @ @ @ was bound for Venezuela .
The Justice Department on Friday said it has “ successfully @ @ @ @ @ and confiscated the cargo from all four vessels , which totaled approximately 1.116 million barrels @ @ @ @ @ Department credited the success to the U.S. government but also the assistance of foreign partners @ @ @ @ @ Earlier this month , federal investigators obtained warrants to seize Iranian oil products aboard four @ @ @ @ @ violation of U.S. sanctions .
FBI and Homeland Security investigators found that the cargo vessels @ @ @ @ @ Bering , the Pandi and the Luna , are assets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard @ @ @ @ @ a U.S.-designated terrorist organization , according to a criminal complaint .

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
The Justice Department (DOJ) on Friday announced the U.S. government’s “largest-ever” seizure of fuel shipments from Iran in a successful disruption of a multimillion-dollar shipment by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a designated foreign terrorist organization, that was bound for Venezuela.
The Justice Department on Friday said it has “successfully executed” the seizure order and confiscated the cargo from all four vessels, which totaled approximately 1.116 million barrels of petroleum.
The Justice Department credited the success to the U.S. government but also the assistance of foreign partners in seizing the property.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Earlier this month, federal investigators obtained warrants to seize Iranian oil products aboard four tankers bound for Venezuela in violation of U.S. sanctions.
FBI and Homeland Security investigators found that the cargo vessels, the Bella, the Bering, the Pandi and the Luna, are assets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, according to a criminal complaint.
www.foxnews.com/politics/us-seizure-of-iran-fuel-bound-for-venezuela-was-largest-confiscation-of-its-kind-ever-doj-confirms


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Malaysia’s economy shrinks most since 1998 Asia financial crisis… Japan’s economy set to crater by a

Malaysia’s economy shrinks most since 1998 Asia financial crisis… Japan’s economy set to crater by a record

( Bloomberg ) — Japan ’ s pandemic-hit economy shrank last quarter by the most in records going back to @ @ @ @ @ set to show Monday , with a resurgence of the virus threatening to slow a @ @ @ @ @ .
Analysts see gross domestic product contracting at an annualized pace of 27 % in @ @ @ @ @ .
That means the world ’ s third-largest economy will have declined in size for @ @ @ @ @ first by trade wars and a sales tax hike , then by the virus .
@ @ @ @ @ s economy follows grim readings from other major countries reeling from the impact of Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ the virus still rages on , shrank by nearly a third last quarter .

(Bloomberg) — Japan’s pandemic-hit economy shrank last quarter by the most in records going back to 1955, official data is set to show Monday, with a resurgence of the virus threatening to slow a fragile recovery now under way.
Analysts see gross domestic product contracting at an annualized pace of 27% in the three months through June. That means the world’s third-largest economy will have declined in size for three straight quarters, hit first by trade wars and a sales tax hike, then by the virus.
The cratering of Japan’s economy follows grim readings from other major countries reeling from the impact of Covid-19. The U.S., where the virus still rages on, shrank by nearly a third last quarter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Here’s Every Gold & Silver Correction in Their Two Biggest Runs, vs. Today

If you ’ re familiar with Mike Maloney , you probably know he ( and I ) actually like it when gold and silver prices correct .
It gives us an opportunity to add more ounces at a better price .
But not every investor likes corrections .
For some it ’ s worrisome .
Others want to know why the price is falling .
Still others wonder if the correction is over and a good time to buy .
The recent drop in gold and silver brought up these concerns again .
So I thought it was time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to other corrections during similar periods .
By viewing corrections in context , and through the lens of history , I think you ’ ll see that yes indeed , corrections are nothing buy buying opportunities in bull markets .
Let ’ s look at the two biggest gold and silver bull markets and compare them to today , starting with the granddaddy of them all , the late 1970s… Most of the gains from the 1970s bull market occurred in the final year .
And yet during that runaway surge , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time frame .
Here were gold ’ s corrections of greater than 3 % , along with the total percentage gain made during that final 13 month-period .
The gold price fell more than 3 % a total of 11 times during that final year .
That ’ s almost once a month .
Two were double-digit declines .
All this while the price shot up 274.5 % .
Now check out silver ’ s corrections during the same period , in this case those of 5 % or greater .
The silver @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its all-time high of $ 50 .
Three of those declines were double-digits .
This much selling while the price was on its way to a 480 % gain .
The message from gold and silver ’ s biggest one-year gain in modern history is this : corrections always occur , and sometimes they can be big .
And in this bull market they were indeed buying opportunities .
After the 2008 meltdown in all assets , gold and silver began an earnest climb .
From January 2009 to its high in September @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubled .
And yet during this relentless march upward , there were 17 corrections of greater than 3 % .
Corrections averaged one every two months during this period .
Only one was over 10 % , but the selloffs didn ’ t signal the end of the bull market ; they were ultimately just a healthy breather .
Here are silver ’ s corrections of greater than 5 % —check out all the red during this monster run-up .
While silver was in the process of climbing nearly 340 % , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 5 % .
Eight were bigger than 10 % .
The message here is similar to the one from the late 1970s : bull markets experience lots of corrections , and some of them are big .
Huge run-ups don ’ t last forever , but if it ’ s a bull market you can ’ t let the bull shake you off .
With that historical context , now let ’ s look at our current market… Gold has risen every year since 2016 , but things really started heating up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the champagne cork on New Year ’ s Ever 2018 , gold has risen has much as 61.3 % ( through August 6 ) .
And yes , there have been plenty of corrections .
The gold price has seen 13 pullbacks of greater than 3 % .
The one last week that had some investors worried wasn ’ t even the biggest .
And it wasn ’ t exactly surprising , since the price had risen 15 consecutive trading days , a rare feat .
Check out silver ’ s corrections of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ timeframe… The price has had a dozen declines in the past 20 months .
Like gold , the recent one was big , but not the biggest .
History shows that corrections are normal , even during huge run-ups in price .
They ’ re actually a healthy market phenomenon .
They shake off the weak investors , and give the market a chance to catch its breath .
And for those of us who see the same big picture as Mike , corrections are also buying opportunities .
They ’ re an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel about them .
We don ’ t know how deep a correction will be , but the point is to buy during the downdrafts , not when the price is running hot .
Unless one thinks the monetary , economic , market , fiscal and geopolitical risks have all been resolved , and that there is no longer any need to hold physical gold and silver , then shun any worry you might have at the next correction and accept the invitation .
Your future self will thank you .

by Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com
If you’re familiar with Mike Maloney, you probably know he (and I) actually like it when gold and silver prices correct. It gives us an opportunity to add more ounces at a better price.
But not every investor likes corrections. For some it’s worrisome. Others want to know why the price is falling. Still others wonder if the correction is over and a good time to buy.
The recent drop in gold and silver brought up these concerns again. So I thought it was time to examine that abrupt selloff and compare it to other corrections during similar periods. By viewing corrections in context, and through the lens of history, I think you’ll see that yes indeed, corrections are nothing buy buying opportunities in bull markets.
Let’s look at the two biggest gold and silver bull markets and compare them to today, starting with the granddaddy of them all, the late 1970s…
1979-1980
Most of the gains from the 1970s bull market occurred in the final year. And yet during that runaway surge, there were numerous corrections in a relatively short time frame.
Here were gold’s corrections of greater than 3%, along with the total percentage gain made during that final 13 month-period.
The gold price fell more than 3% a total of 11 times during that final year. That’s almost once a month. Two were double-digit declines. All this while the price shot up 274.5%.
Now check out silver’s corrections during the same period, in this case those of 5% or greater.
The silver price corrected 12 times before it reached its all-time high of $50. Three of those declines were double-digits. This much selling while the price was on its way to a 480% gain.
The message from gold and silver’s biggest one-year gain in modern history is this: corrections always occur, and sometimes they can be big. And in this bull market they were indeed buying opportunities.
2009-2011
After the 2008 meltdown in all assets, gold and silver began an earnest climb. From January 2009 to its high in September 2011, the gold price more than doubled.
And yet during this relentless march upward, there were 17 corrections of greater than 3%.
Corrections averaged one every two months during this period. Only one was over 10%, but the selloffs didn’t signal the end of the bull market; they were ultimately just a healthy breather.
Here are silver’s corrections of greater than 5%—check out all the red during this monster run-up.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
While silver was in the process of climbing nearly 340%, there were a whopping 23 selloffs of more than 5%. Eight were bigger than 10%.
The message here is similar to the one from the late 1970s: bull markets experience lots of corrections, and some of them are big. Huge run-ups don’t last forever, but if it’s a bull market you can’t let the bull shake you off.
With that historical context, now let’s look at our current market…
2019-2020
Gold has risen every year since 2016, but things really started heating up last year. From when we popped the champagne cork on New Year’s Ever 2018, gold has risen has much as 61.3% (through August 6).
And yes, there have been plenty of corrections.
The gold price has seen 13 pullbacks of greater than 3%. The one last week that had some investors worried wasn’t even the biggest. And it wasn’t exactly surprising, since the price had risen 15 consecutive trading days, a rare feat.
Check out silver’s corrections of 5% or more in the same timeframe…
The price has had a dozen declines in the past 20 months. Like gold, the recent one was big, but not the biggest.
Corrections Are Normal, Healthy—& Buying Opportunities
History shows that corrections are normal, even during huge run-ups in price. They’re actually a healthy market phenomenon. They shake off the weak investors, and give the market a chance to catch its breath.
And for those of us who see the same big picture as Mike, corrections are also buying opportunities. They’re an invitation, regardless of how you might feel about them.
We don’t know how deep a correction will be, but the point is to buy during the downdrafts, not when the price is running hot.
Unless one thinks the monetary, economic, market, fiscal and geopolitical risks have all been resolved, and that there is no longer any need to hold physical gold and silver, then shun any worry you might have at the next correction and accept the invitation.
Your future self will thank you.
[Follow Jeff on Twitter @TheGoldAdvisor]


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--The Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks Have Been Printing the Night Away

Global stocks have erased their losses for the year .
Of course , The Federal Reserve and other central banks @ @ @ @ @ away particularly since Covid blasted markets .
What happens if The Fed and other central @ @ @ @ @ becomes unhappy if the massive bubble bursts .
At least we are seeing green corporate @ @ @ @ @ bonds index in the US as well as Europe .

by confoundedinterest17
Happy?
Global stocks have erased their losses for the year.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Of course, The Federal Reserve and other central banks have been printing the night away particularly since Covid blasted markets.
What happens if The Fed and other central banks stop printing? Happy becomes unhappy if the massive bubble bursts.
At least we are seeing green corporate bonds outperforming the aggregate corporate bonds index in the US as well as Europe.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Food inflation has been picking up sharply over last couple months

Watch @ neelkashkari on CNBC as he explains why everyone will rejoice when food inflation surges some more pic.twitter.com/KWeBw9rJYJ

Watch @neelkashkari on CNBC as he explains why everyone will rejoice when food inflation surges some more pic.twitter.com/KWeBw9rJYJ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--13,000 empty Manhattan apartments are sitting vacant — the highest number in 14 years… SF condo inve

13,000 empty Manhattan apartments are sitting vacant — the highest number in 14 years… SF condo inventory spikes, with price reductions skyrocketing

Forecasters Lift U.S .
Third-Quarter Outlook , but Cut Fourth Quarter and Beyond : Philly Fed The outlook looks weaker @ @ @ @ @ in the fourth quarter and beyond , according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey released @ @ @

SF condo inventory spikes, with price reductions skyrocketing t.co/hDoNxLpQiZ — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) August 14, 2020
13,000 empty Manhattan apartments are sitting vacant — the highest number in 14 years – Business Insider — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) August 14, 2020
The outlook looks weaker for growth and job creation in the fourth quarter and beyond, according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey released on Friday.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Consumer not getting so comfortable pic.twitter.com/wrPJs3tl7q — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2020
U.S. rise in the University of Michigan confidence index to 72.8 in August shows the recovery is in place but slowing down and the outlook remains pessimistic. The expectations index did rise to 66.5, from 65.9, but the current conditions index actually fell to 82.5, from 82.8. pic.twitter.com/o3qYAiopn3 — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) August 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--This is what a failed Presidential candidate getting destroyed looks like.

This is what a failed Presidential candidate getting destroyed looks like .
pic.twitter.com/tooKoSbJgY

This is what a failed Presidential candidate getting destroyed looks like. pic.twitter.com/tooKoSbJgY
— Ed 4 Truth 🇺🇸 (@ed_4_truth) August 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--No V recovery? 62% of small businesses indicated they needed consumer spending return to pre-virus l

No V recovery? 62% of small businesses indicated they needed consumer spending return to pre-virus levels by the end of 2020 in order to stay in business

62% of small businesses indicated they needed consumer spending return to pre-virus levels by the end of 2020 in order to stay in business — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2020
Full Recovery in U.S. Hotel Demand and Room Revenue Remains Unlikely Until 2023 and 2024 pic.twitter.com/KAjphoESVM — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) August 14, 2020
CORPORATE DOWNGRADES NEW RECORD IN Q2 👇 pic.twitter.com/HJ4M5PTAqh — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2020
No longer the V….instead,
The EKG recovery pic.twitter.com/vnatLvi41O — shinebox (@ljzaz) August 14, 2020
Retail sales are just like you’d expect Sit at home, shop online, relax No malls, no restaurants, no commute pic.twitter.com/ytXUlLxuKH — THE LONG VIEW ⚫ (@HayekAndKeynes) August 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Congress Fails to Reach Stimulus Deal, Leaving Tens of Millions of Americans Desperate for Relief

• Even as one of the worst financial downturns in U.S. history rages on , Congress has failed to reach a deal on a relief package .
• The delay in additional unemployment benefits , stimulus checks and eviction protections could have lasting impacts on tens of millions of Americans who without aid can ’ t cover their rent or food bills .
Shenerah Nelson used to pay her rent with the money she made driving for Uber and Lyft , but when the pandemic struck , her rides dried up .
The single mother of two scrambled to land @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were low-paying or part-time , but she was desperate , and so she started working at a call center , earning $ 11 an hour .
“ I ’ m not happy with the job , ” Nelson , 30 , said .
“ But I have kids that depend on me.
” Her income dropped in half from before the public health crisis .
“ It ’ s made it difficult because I still have the same expenses , ” Nelson said .
The expanded federal unemployment benefit Congress passed in March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ checks stopped coming last month .
She ’ s fallen behind on her $ 1,200 rent in Miami .

Even as one of the worst financial downturns in U.S. history rages on, Congress has failed to reach a deal on a relief package.
The delay in additional unemployment benefits, stimulus checks and eviction protections could have lasting impacts on tens of millions of Americans who without aid can’t cover their rent or food bills.
Shenerah Nelson used to pay her rent with the money she made driving for Uber and Lyft, but when the pandemic struck, her rides dried up. The single mother of two scrambled to land another job.
The positions she found were low-paying or part-time, but she was desperate, and so she started working at a call center, earning $11 an hour.
“I’m not happy with the job,” Nelson, 30, said. “But I have kids that depend on me.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Her income dropped in half from before the public health crisis. “It’s made it difficult because I still have the same expenses,” Nelson said.
The expanded federal unemployment benefit Congress passed in March helped her stay afloat, but those checks stopped coming last month. She’s fallen behind on her $1,200 rent in Miami.
www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/with-no-stimulus-deal-millions-of-americans-are-desperate-for-relief.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Eliminate war and the Fed (IOW have money government can’t print).

Eliminate war and the Fed (IOW have money government can’t print). 💸 This is how you improve the standard of living of poor/middle class who are earning the money that would increase in value. #gold #silver #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/pSQPTYmENm — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) August 14, 2020
Are you shitting me!? t.co/rrceDMYhQl — BLACK SWAN (@RetirementRight) August 14, 2020
*PELOSI SAYS STOCK MARKET IS DOING WELL BECAUSE THE FED IS BOLSTERING IT — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) August 14, 2020
Good news is recovery news, so buy stocks.
Bad news is stimulus news, so buy stocks.#DaveyDaytraderWisdom t.co/ASNwNEgc7x — Brad Huston (@BradHuston) August 14, 2020
Investors frantically buying ahead of the weekend to take advantage of the generational 0.25% pullback — Hipster (@Hipster_Trader) August 14, 2020
Stonks market actions pic.twitter.com/1RKlP3kvca — Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) August 14, 2020
PUT/CALL RATIO NOW THE OTHER EXTREME pic.twitter.com/41cy6MoSPK — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Fauci, confirms to CNN that scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Fauci, confirms to CNN that scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases are working to create a strain of coronavirus

Fauci , director of the NIAID , described this approach as a `` Plan D '' – and the work @ @ @ @ @ challenge trials are typically used when a virus is not widely circulating – the # @ @ @ @ @ approach may not be necessary , according to Fauci .

Fauci, director of the NIAID, described this approach as a "Plan D" – and the work is still preliminary.
Human challenge trials are typically used when a virus is not widely circulating – the #coronavirus is – so this approach may not be necessary, according to Fauci.
— Ana Cabrera (@AnaCabrera) August 14, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--Massive Surge In U.S. Gold Imports Signals BIG TROUBLE Ahead For The Financial System

The U.S. imported a record amount of gold bullion in April during the global contagion and shutdown of many economies .
The United States imported more gold in April than it did during all of last year .
A lot of the gold imported into the U.S. was due to delivery issues , as many of the large gold refineries were shut down .
While the huge surge in U.S. gold bullion imports during April was mainly due to supply disruptions , it ’ s an IMPORTANT SIGNAL that all is not well in the Global Financial System .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. exchanges suggests that there is way too much paper gold leverage in the system .
The highly leveraged gold trading system has worked fine for decades due to an important factor not considered by most in the precious metals community… and that ’ s rising global oil production .
Let me explain .
World GDP growth is tied to global oil production growth… PERIOD .
While a few other analysts and I have made this point , Jean-Marc Jancovici explained this to a large group of the OECD .
Total world oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to total world GDP per capita on a three-year average .
While investors may deny this relationship , do so at your peril .
Because the world has been able to add 1-2 % of new global oil production on average each year , except for the down-turns , the highly leveraged Financial Ponzi Scheme can continue to grow and expand .
However , when global oil production stops increasing on an annual basis , then global GDP growth is DEAD for good .
And , I mean it .
So , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand by 25 % in April , it forced investors into the safe-haven of gold .
Unfortunately , because there are way too many paper gold contracts trading against few gold bars , investors demanded metal during one of the largest gold supply disruptions caused havoc in the system .
Of course , the large gold refineries came back online , and the supply disruption dissipated .
But , remember… this wasn ’ t a ONE-OFF EVENT .
This was a signal of BIG TROUBLES ahead when more investors want to acquire physical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the large GOLD ANOMALY shown in the chart below : As we can see , for most of 2019 , gold bullion imports into the United States were pathetically small .
Americans now utilizing the wonders of the Robinhood trading platform rather buy and trade high-tech bubble stocks and bankrupt companies like Hertz , thinking they are going to make it rich .
This is another sign that ALL IS NOT WELL in the Good ole U.S. , of A .
Total U.S. gold bullion imports in 2019 were 87 metric tons versus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alone .
We can also see that U.S. gold imports starting rising in March at 48 metric tons .
When the May and June figures are released by the USGS , I will provide an update .
Here are the Leading Sources of U.S. Gold Imports During April 2020 ( mt = metric tons ) : While Switzerland was the largest source of U.S. gold bullion imports , we can plainly see that metal was being sourced from all over the world to fill the massive demand .
Now that many U.S. citizens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with another pending $ 1+ trillion stimulus plan in September , Americans are now back to doing what they do best , and that is spending lots of money they don ’ t have on things they don ’ t need .
What they really need is to own some physical gold and silver insurance .
Regardless , the United States and world are not prepared for the coming ENERGY CLIFF .
I use that term , “ Energy Cliff ” often and will provide future articles and videos on the details as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a nutshell , the glorious U.S. Shale Oil Miracle that has added nearly 8 million barrels of production since 2007 , and is getting ready to hit a BRICK WALL .
With the U.S. drilling rig count down 75 % compared to last year , how does the U.S. Shale Industry plan on keeping production from falling considerably ?
?
The United States ’ brief blip of being “ Energy Independent ” for less than a year will lead to the country importing more oil to satisfy its needs .
As the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up the economy and markets , the one thing it can not do is print barrels of oil .
If you have not heard about the new changes to the SRSrocco Report , please click on this link : IMPORTANT UPDATE : The SRSrocco Report Will Be Transitioning To A Subscription Service On August 21st .
Brief information on the new membership levels , click here : MEMBERSHIPS

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report
The U.S. imported a record amount of gold bullion in April during the global contagion and shutdown of many economies. The United States imported more gold in April than it did during all of last year. A lot of the gold imported into the U.S. was due to delivery issues, as many of the large gold refineries were shut down.
While the huge surge in U.S. gold bullion imports during April was mainly due to supply disruptions, it’s an IMPORTANT SIGNAL that all is not well in the Global Financial System. The panic to get more gold to the U.S. exchanges suggests that there is way too much paper gold leverage in the system.
The highly leveraged gold trading system has worked fine for decades due to an important factor not considered by most in the precious metals community… and that’s rising global oil production. Let me explain. World GDP growth is tied to global oil production growth… PERIOD. While a few other analysts and I have made this point, Jean-Marc Jancovici explained this to a large group of the OECD.
Total world oil consumption on a three-year average corresponding closely to total world GDP per capita on a three-year average. While investors may deny this relationship, do so at your peril.
Because the world has been able to add 1-2% of new global oil production on average each year, except for the down-turns, the highly leveraged Financial Ponzi Scheme can continue to grow and expand. However, when global oil production stops increasing on an annual basis, then global GDP growth is DEAD for good. And, I mean it.
So, with the global contagion pulling down global oil demand by 25% in April, it forced investors into the safe-haven of gold. Unfortunately, because there are way too many paper gold contracts trading against few gold bars, investors demanded metal during one of the largest gold supply disruptions caused havoc in the system.
Of course, the large gold refineries came back online, and the supply disruption dissipated. But, remember… this wasn’t a ONE-OFF EVENT. This was a signal of BIG TROUBLES ahead when more investors want to acquire physical gold bars.
Which brings me to the large GOLD ANOMALY shown in the chart below:
As we can see, for most of 2019, gold bullion imports into the United States were pathetically small. Americans now utilizing the wonders of the Robinhood trading platform rather buy and trade high-tech bubble stocks and bankrupt companies like Hertz, thinking they are going to make it rich. This is another sign that ALL IS NOT WELL in the Good ole U.S., of A.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Total U.S. gold bullion imports in 2019 were 87 metric tons versus the 120 metric tons for April 2020 alone. We can also see that U.S. gold imports starting rising in March at 48 metric tons. When the May and June figures are released by the USGS, I will provide an update.
Here are the Leading Sources of U.S. Gold Imports During April 2020 (mt = metric tons):
Switzerland = 53.8 mt
Singapore = 17.6 mt
Australia = 17.2 mt
Hong Kong = 12.9 mt
South Africa = 6.1 mt
United Kingdom = 5.2 mt
Canada = 4.1 mt
Mexico = 1.5 mt
While Switzerland was the largest source of U.S. gold bullion imports, we can plainly see that metal was being sourced from all over the world to fill the massive demand.
Now that many U.S. citizens have gone back to work, along with another pending $1+ trillion stimulus plan in September, Americans are now back to doing what they do best, and that is spending lots of money they don’t have on things they don’t need. What they really need is to own some physical gold and silver insurance.
Regardless, the United States and world are not prepared for the coming ENERGY CLIFF. I use that term, “Energy Cliff” often and will provide future articles and videos on the details as we see it. However, in a nutshell, the glorious U.S. Shale Oil Miracle that has added nearly 8 million barrels of production since 2007, and is getting ready to hit a BRICK WALL.
With the U.S. drilling rig count down 75% compared to last year, how does the U.S. Shale Industry plan on keeping production from falling considerably?? The United States’ brief blip of being “Energy Independent” for less than a year will lead to the country importing more oil to satisfy its needs.
As the U.S. Government increases its debt to continue propping up the economy and markets, the one thing it cannot do is print barrels of oil.
And… THERE LIES THE RUB.
If you have not heard about the new changes to the SRSrocco Report, please click on this link: IMPORTANT UPDATE: The SRSrocco Report Will Be Transitioning To A Subscription Service On August 21st.
Brief information on the new membership levels, click here: MEMBERSHIPS


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-14--VOTE IN DEMOCRATS, GET SQUALOR

VOTE IN DEMOCRATS, GET SQUALOR

● New York ’ s economic outlook ranked worst in the nation .
● Report : Minneapolis Forcing Riot-Wrecked Businesses To Pay Property Taxes Before Getting Permits To Rebuild .
● Not So Magnificent .
Chicago ’ s safest neighborhoods start sharing in the Windy City ’ s crime outbreak .
Earlier : “ What is so sad about what ’ s happened to New York is that everybody knew it would happen .
This was all predictable , if you remember what happened to New York back in the 1970s and ’ 80s.
” UPDATE : Austin City Council @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from its police department .
Americans Are Fed Up – 72 % Are Concerned with Violence in Major Cities – 62 % Say It Affects Their Vote TRENDING : It Begins : Black Lives Matter Mob Demands White People Move Out of Homes and Leave Them for Black People ( VIDEO ) Voters are ready for the police to put an end to the continuing violent protests nationwide .
Most also say the protests will be important to their vote in the upcoming elections .
When asked which is closer to their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Voters say the police should crack down on the protests to bring them to an end .
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 38 % disagree and believe the protests should be allowed to continue until the protesters decide to end them .
Eleven percent ( 11 % ) are undecided .
( To see survey question wording , click here . )
There ’ s sharp partisan disagreement on this question , though .
While 75 % of Republicans and a plurality ( 47 % ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crack down on the protests , just 31 % of Democrats agree .
Fifty-six percent ( 56 % ) of Democrats say the protests should be permitted to continue until the protesters want to end them .
Seventy-two percent ( 72 % ) of all voters say they are concerned about the growing level of violent protest nationwide , with 43 % who are Very Concerned .
Sixty-two percent ( 62 % ) say the growing level of violent protest is important to their vote in the next election , including 35 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting issue .

● New York’s economic outlook ranked worst in the nation.
● Report: Minneapolis Forcing Riot-Wrecked Businesses To Pay Property Taxes Before Getting Permits To Rebuild.
● Not So Magnificent. Chicago’s safest neighborhoods start sharing in the Windy City’s crime outbreak.
● The Truth About San Francisco.
Earlier: “What is so sad about what’s happened to New York is that everybody knew it would happen. This was all predictable, if you remember what happened to New York back in the 1970s and ’80s.”
UPDATE: Austin City Council just voted to cut $150 million from its police department.
Americans Are Fed Up – 72% Are Concerned with Violence in Major Cities – 62% Say It Affects Their Vote
BREAKING: 72% of all voters say they are concerned about the growing level of violent protest nationwide t.co/jlnKlZCgbd
TRENDING: It Begins: Black Lives Matter Mob Demands White People Move Out of Homes and Leave Them for Black People (VIDEO)
Voters are ready for the police to put an end to the continuing violent protests nationwide. Most also say the protests will be important to their vote in the upcoming elections.
When asked which is closer to their own thinking, 50% of Likely U.S. Voters say the police should crack down on the protests to bring them to an end. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 38% disagree and believe the protests should be allowed to continue until the protesters decide to end them. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
There’s sharp partisan disagreement on this question, though. While 75% of Republicans and a plurality (47%) of unaffiliated voters think the police should crack down on the protests, just 31% of Democrats agree. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Democrats say the protests should be permitted to continue until the protesters want to end them.