investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--If you’re bugging out, remember, you’re being tracked! Switzerland monitoring cell phone data to see

If you’re bugging out, remember, you’re being tracked! Switzerland monitoring cell phone data to see if people are staying in.

if you ’ re planning on bugging out , or are trying to skirt a lockdown for whatever reason–maybe to @ @ @ @ @ you ’ re being tracked with your cell phone .
i know we all know @ @ @ @ @ it might be something you forget , as you head out .
also , you @ @ @ @ @ cell for for comms with family , etc .
so , just something to keep @ @ @ @ @ doing it here in switzerland right now , to decide if people are staying in @ @ @ @ @ more than 5. they say this will determine if they make more stringent measures .
@ @ @ @ @ : …phone data is being tracked to see if people are staying home and choosing @ @ @ @ @ .
If the measures aren ’ t being followed , more extreme restrictions are set @ @ @

if you’re planning on bugging out, or are trying to skirt a lockdown for whatever reason–maybe to bug out–keep in mind that you’re being tracked with your cell phone. i know we all know this already here, but it might be something you forget, as you head out. also, you might be relying on your cell for for comms with family, etc. so, just something to keep in mind.
they are doing it here in switzerland right now, to decide if people are staying in and not in groups of more than 5. they say this will determine if they make more stringent measures.
article in english about this:
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…phone data is being tracked to see if people are staying home and choosing not to congregate in groups. If the measures aren’t being followed, more extreme restrictions are set to be implemented…
www.thelocal.ch/20200324/further-lockdowns-in-switzerland-to-be-determined-by-mobile-phone-data
JJ


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Stansaid Airport @StansaidAirport · IMPORTANT: Please follow Government advice. Isolate yourself, do

Stansaid Airport @StansaidAirport · IMPORTANT: Please follow Government advice. Isolate yourself, do not make physical contact with anyone..

Stansaid Airport @ StansaidAirport · 5h IMPORTANT : Please follow Government advice .
Isolate yourself , do not make physical @ @ @ @ @ inside most of the time , do not go to social gatherings and do not @ @ @ @ @ .
Plane spotters , carry on as normal .

Stansaid Airport
@StansaidAirport
·
5h
IMPORTANT: Please follow Government advice. Isolate yourself, do not make physical contact with anyone, stay inside most of the time, do not go to social gatherings and do not attempt to meet new people. Plane spotters, carry on as normal.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
IMPORTANT: Please follow Government advice. Isolate yourself, do not make physical contact with anyone, stay inside most of the time, do not go to social gatherings and do not attempt to meet new people. Plane spotters, carry on as normal. — Stansaid Airport (@StansaidAirport) March 23, 2020
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--1/11/17-Dr.Fauci-No Doubt Trump will Face Suprise Infectious Disease Outbreak

During a forum on pandemic preparedness at Georgetown University , Fauci said the Trump administration will not only be challenged @ @ @ @ @ such as influenza and HIV , but also a surprise disease outbreak .

Found this article when researching Dr.Fauci.
www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7B85a3f9c0-ed0a-4be8-9ca2-8854b2be7d13%7D/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak
Here’s part of the article:
During a forum on pandemic preparedness at Georgetown University, Fauci said the Trump administration will not only be challenged by ongoing global health threats such as influenza and HIV, but also a surprise disease outbreak.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--The same people who sold you the Russia collusion/impeachment hoax are the same ppl that are promoti

The same people who sold you the Russia collusion/impeachment hoax are the same ppl that are promoting fear/panic globally about COVID-19.

Why does anyone still believe these corporate frauds ?
The shortage of basic medical supplies is happening for the same @ @ @ @ @ find toilet paper .
Fake news is the enemy of the people .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ now .
They ’ ve got people so scared they are fighting over toilet paper @ @ @ @ @ demanding they be tested but instead & sent home under mandatory quarantine by the government @

Why does anyone still believe these corporate frauds? The shortage of basic medical supplies is happening for the same reason you can’t find toilet paper.
Fake news is the enemy of the people. That’s on full display right now. They’ve got people so scared they are fighting over toilet paper & running to the hospitals demanding they be tested but instead & sent home under mandatory quarantine by the government.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“At the beginning of April, we will run out of basic medical supplies because of the intense strain that is being put on our hospitals by this crisis,” Mayor de Blasio said. “We literally will not have the things we need to save people’s lives.”t.co/XB42m88bnk — Rachel Maddow MSNBC (@maddow) March 20, 2020
h/t BillscigarMonicasCat


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--The Looting Begins as Stores Close

The Looting Begins as Stores Close

Looting begins whenever there is a crisis of this nature and stores are ordered to close , such as during @ @ @ @ @ Panama , the looting has begun .
There are 200 cases of the virus in @ @ @ @ @ cases appear to be imported by travelers .
Many places are refusing to test people @ @ @ @ @ Italy or China .
We are going to see more and more of this unfold @ @ @ @ @ this lockdown prevails .

by Martin Armstrong
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Looting begins whenever there is a crisis of this nature and stores are ordered to close, such as during hurricanes or earthquakes. In Panama, the looting has begun. There are 200 cases of the virus in Panama, and most reported cases appear to be imported by travelers. Many places are refusing to test people unless they have been to Italy or China. We are going to see more and more of this unfold around the world the longer this lockdown prevails.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Is this a Staged Political Coup on a Grand International Level?

No one has been more spot on before the deluge than you in calling these moves .
Have you ever seen such idiocy in all your life as is on full display today with these politicians jockeying for position , cramming their pet projects into the bailouts and trying to without support for funding while the entire country collapses ?
Even the Lehman collapse in 2008 looks mild compared to this !
Businesses collapses , supply chains broken , small businesses going broke , executive orders coming from Governors now requiring people stay home and wait indefinitely .
By the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ damage will be beyond measure…i really believe the only reason why they are doing this now is because no statistics are available to measure the collapse in sales , tax receipts , economic activity .
Goldman says 24 % collapse in GPD , but I really doubt these politicians even grasp what this does to any recovery , thinking there will be a quick snap back recovery is delusional…nothing like this has ever happened , man made , and they think getting funding now to businesses is going to solve the problem they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only to our economy but the world since we buy so much from them , travel and spend money there and circulate freely .
I think an economic collapse happening in real time is unprecedented and will surpass that of the 1929 crash…all man made , through inception and bad policy choices and bad advice from academics… REPLY : This is a photo running around among the Democrats , cheering the destruction of the economy , for they are counting on this to overthrow Trump .
But this does not stop there .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ left to also overthrow Merkel and force the capitulation of Germany and its long-held policy against inflation .
They have succeeded in breaking the will of Germany as Merkel has thrown in the towel .
The Deep State has been trying to overthrow Trump desperately .
What the WHO and the CDC have orchestrated is beyond belief .
They have put out these scenarios to justify destroying the economy under the claim there will not be enough beds to help people .
China built hospitals to handle it in days .
The WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy rather than expand hospital capacity .
I am sorry , but no one in their right mind would have done this .
I am sorry , but all the information I am getting from direct sources are starting to paint this as a political coup on an international level .
The climate change was just running into too much resistance so they needed another approach .
Everyone knows I hate conspiracy theories based on just speculation .
Even Diane Feinstein and others sold their investments with the turn of the ECM , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Europeans who did the same .

by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Hi Marty,
No one has been more spot on before the deluge than you in calling these moves.
Have you ever seen such idiocy in all your life as is on full display today with these politicians jockeying for position, cramming their pet projects into the bailouts and trying to without support for funding while the entire country collapses? Even the Lehman collapse in 2008 looks mild compared to this! Businesses collapses, supply chains broken, small businesses going broke, executive orders coming from Governors now requiring people stay home and wait indefinitely. By the time the dust settles, the financial damage will be beyond measure…i really believe the only reason why they are doing this now is because no statistics are available to measure the collapse in sales, tax receipts, economic activity. Goldman says 24% collapse in GPD, but I really doubt these politicians even grasp what this does to any recovery, thinking there will be a quick snap back recovery is delusional…nothing like this has ever happened, man made, and they think getting funding now to businesses is going to solve the problem they have created….permanent damage has been done not only to our economy but the world since we buy so much from them, travel and spend money there and circulate freely.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I think an economic collapse happening in real time is unprecedented and will surpass that of the 1929 crash…all man made, through inception and bad policy choices and bad advice from academics…
MS
REPLY: This is a photo running around among the Democrats, cheering the destruction of the economy, for they are counting on this to overthrow Trump. But this does not stop there. This is a coordinated effort by the left to also overthrow Merkel and force the capitulation of Germany and its long-held policy against inflation. They have succeeded in breaking the will of Germany as Merkel has thrown in the towel. The Deep State has been trying to overthrow Trump desperately. What the WHO and the CDC have orchestrated is beyond belief.
They have put out these scenarios to justify destroying the economy under the claim there will not be enough beds to help people. China built hospitals to handle it in days. The WHO and CDC have chosen to destroy the economy rather than expand hospital capacity. I am sorry, but no one in their right mind would have done this. I am sorry, but all the information I am getting from direct sources are starting to paint this as a political coup on an international level. The climate change was just running into too much resistance so they needed another approach. Everyone knows I hate conspiracy theories based on just speculation. Even Diane Feinstein and others sold their investments with the turn of the ECM, including bonds! I know of high-level Europeans who did the same.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Stocks Suggest a Bottom is Forming: Five Charts Every Investor Needs to See Today

Disclaimer : I am not a scientist nor am I a healthcare official .
I am not downplaying the Covid-19 situation ; I am simply looking at what the markets are saying about the Covid-19 pandemic .
A very strange thing has started happening in the markets .
While the news continues to tell us that there is a global pandemic and that soon millions of people will be dead… the stock markets have begun bottoming .
The stock market in Italy , which is supposed to be completely imploding from Covid-19 , bottomed on March 16th .
It failed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet to roll over again .
Germany , which is now experiencing its own Covid-19 issues , looks like it bottomed on October 18th .
It is still touch and go here , but we have yet to see new lows .
Here in the U.S. , multiple economic bellwethers are showing us something similar .
Caterpillar is the largest producer of large machinery in the world .
If the world was entering a depression , and things were worsening , CAT ’ s stock actually bottomed on March 12th and is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Freeport McMoran ( FCX ) is the largest copper producer in the U.S. Copper is a commodity that is closely linked to economic growth .
And FCX ’ s share price looks like it bottomed last week on March 19th .
Despite yesterday ’ s early morning bloodbath , FCX shares never broke to new lows .
Taken together , these charts are suggesting that the the market is in the process of bottoming .
The one area of concern that has yet to give us the “ all clear ” is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DID put in a new low yesterday .
They are now attempting to bounce .
But unless credit bottoms , any rally in stocks will be short-lived .
Put another way , if that last chart begins to rally in a significant way , stocks could EXPLODE higher .
These charts are suggesting to us that the first round of the crisis , the deflationary collapse , will be ending sometime soon .
But the second round , the INFLATIONARY storm triggered , by central banks printing trillions of dollars is just around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead We are making just 100 copies available to the public .
As I write this there are 55 left .
To pick up yours , swing by :

Disclaimer: I am not a scientist nor am I a healthcare official. I am not downplaying the Covid-19 situation; I am simply looking at what the markets are saying about the Covid-19 pandemic.
A very strange thing has started happening in the markets.
While the news continues to tell us that there is a global pandemic and that soon millions of people will be dead… the stock markets have begun bottoming.
The stock market in Italy, which is supposed to be completely imploding from Covid-19, bottomed on March 16th. It failed to make a new low and has yet to roll over again.
Germany, which is now experiencing its own Covid-19 issues, looks like it bottomed on October 18th. It is still touch and go here, but we have yet to see new lows.
Here in the U.S., multiple economic bellwethers are showing us something similar.
Caterpillar is the largest producer of large machinery in the world. If the world was entering a depression, and things were worsening, CAT’s stock actually bottomed on March 12th and is now putting in a higher low.
Similarly Freeport McMoran (FCX) is the largest copper producer in the U.S. Copper is a commodity that is closely linked to economic growth. And FCX’s share price looks like it bottomed last week on March 19th. Despite yesterday’s early morning bloodbath, FCX shares never broke to new lows.
Taken together, these charts are suggesting that the the market is in the process of bottoming. The one area of concern that has yet to give us the “all clear” is the credit markets.
High yield credit spreads DID put in a new low yesterday. They are now attempting to bounce. But unless credit bottoms, any rally in stocks will be short-lived.
Put another way, if that last chart begins to rally in a significant way, stocks could EXPLODE higher.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
These charts are suggesting to us that the first round of the crisis, the deflationary collapse, will be ending sometime soon. But the second round, the INFLATIONARY storm triggered, by central banks printing trillions of dollars is just around the corner.
We just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead
We are making just 100 copies available to the public.
As I write this there are 55 left.
To pick up yours, swing by:
www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Technically Speaking: Fed Goes All In. When’s The “Bear Market” Rally?

Let ’ s flashback to a time not so long ago , May 2019 .
“ It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell , during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference , channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘ sub-prime ’ debt ( aka leveraged loans . )
‘ Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years .
The acronyms have changed a bit— ’ CLOs ’ ( collateralized loan obligations ) instead of ‘ CDOs ’ ( collateralized debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards .
Likewise , much of the borrowing is financed opaquely , outside the banking system .
Many are asking whether these developments pose a new threat to financial stability .
In public discussion of this issue , views seem to range from ‘ This is a rerun of the subprime mortgage crisis ’ to ‘ Nothing to worry about here.
’ At the moment , the truth is likely somewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conclusions , as of now , business debt does not present the kind of elevated risks to the stability of the financial system that would lead to broad harm to households and businesses should conditions deteriorate.
’ – Jerome Powell , May 2019 In other words , corporate debt is ‘ contained.
’ ” As we concluded at that time : While the “ exogenous event ” was a “ virus , ” it led to a “ credit event ” which has crippled markets globally , leading the Federal Reserve to throw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis .
With the Fed ’ s balance sheet set to expand towards $ 10 Trillion , the Federal deficit to balloon to $ 4 trillion , it is “ all hands on deck ” to stop the next “ Great Depression ” before it takes hold .
However , this is what we have been warning about : The only question which remains to be answered is whether the MORE debt and monetary stimulus can fix a debt and monetary stimulus bubble ?
In other words , can the Fed inflate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the third ?
Think about the insanity of that statement , but that is what the markets , and the economy , are banking on .
We do expect that with the flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus , a “ bear market rally ” becomes a real probability , at least in the short-term .
How big of a rally ?
What should you do ?
These are the important points in today ’ s missive .
The “ ONE Thing ” you need to do TODAY , right now , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What you had , what was lost , and the mistakes you made , CAN NOT be corrected .
They are in the past .
However , by hanging on to those “ emotions , ” we lock ourselves out of the ability to take actions that will begin the corrective process .
Let me dispel some myths : • “ Hope ” is not an investment strategy .
Hanging on to some stock you lost money in waiting for it to “ get back to even , ” costs you opportunity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Whatever happened previously is over , and it doesn ’ t make you a “ loser.
” However , staying in losing positions or strategies will continue to cost you .
• Selling does NOT lock in losses .
The losses have already occurred .
Selling , however , gives you the ability to take advantage of “ opportunity ” to begin the recovery process .
Okay , now that we have the right “ mindset , ” let ’ s take an educated guess on what happens next .
The current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same “ technical traits ” as seen in both the “ Dot.com ” and “ Financial Crisis.
” In each previous case , the market experienced a parabolic advance to the initial peak .
A correction ensued , which was dismissed by the mainstream media , and investors alike , as just a “ pause that refreshes.
” They were seemingly proved correct as the markets rebounded shortly thereafter and even set all-time highs .
Investors , complacent in the belief that “ this time was different ” ( 1999 – a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , continued to hold out hopes the bull market was set to continue .
Also , in each period , once the monthly “ sell signal ” was triggered from a high level , the ensuing correction process took months to complete .
This not only reset the market , but valuations as well .
In both previous periods , reflexive rallies occurred , which eventually failed .
While the 2008 plunge following the Lehman crisis was most similar to the current environment , there was a brief rally following the passage of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the additional 22 % decline in the first two months of 2009 .
Most importantly , the market got very oversold early in both previous bear markets , and stayed that way for the entirety of the bear market .
Currently , the market has only just now gotten to a similar oversold condition .
What all the indicators currently suggest is that while the current correction has been swift and brutal , bear markets are not resolved in a single month .
This is going to take some time .
Over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we have been talking about a potential reflexive bounce .
From a purely technical basis , the extreme downside extension , and potential selling exhaustion , has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce .
This is where fun with math comes in .
As shown in the chart below , after a 35 % decline in the markets from the previous highs , a rally to the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20 % advance .
Such an advance will “ lure ” investors back into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” is over .
This is what “ bear market rallies ” do , and generally inflict the most pain possible on unwitting investors .
The reasons for this are many , but primarily investors who were trapped in the recent decline will use the rally to “ flee ” the markets permanently .
More importantly , as noted above , “ bear markets ” are not resolved in a single month .
Currently , there are too many investors trying to figure out where “ the bottom ” is , so they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets do not end in optimism ; they end in despair .
Looking back at 2008 , numerous indicators suggest the “ bear market ” has only just begun .
While this does NOT rule out a fairly strong reflexive rally , it suggests that any rally will ultimately fail as the bear market completes its cycle .
This can be seen more clearly in the monthly chart below , which looks at both previous bull and bear markets using a Fibonacci retracement .
As shown , from the peak of both previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market reversed 61.8 % of the advance during the “ Dot.com ” crash , and more than 100 % of the advance during the “ Financial Crisis.
” Given the current bull market cycle was longer , more levered , and more extended than both previous bull markets , a 38.2 % decline is unlikely to fulfill the requirements of this reversion .
Our ultimate target of 1600-1800 on the S & P 500 remains confirmed by the quarterly chart below .
The current correction process has only just triggered a quarterly sell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extreme deviation of the long-term bull-trend back to the 1930 ’ s .
Both previous bull market peaks coincide with the long-term bull trend at about 1600 on the S & P currently .
Given all the stimulus being infused into the markets currently , we broaden our bear market bottom target to 1600-1800 , as noted .
The technical signals , which do indeed lag short-term turns in the market , all confirm the “ bear market ” is only just awakening .
While bullish reflexive rallies are very likely , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is a “ traders ” market for the time being .
In other words , the new mantra for the market , for the time being , will be to “ Sell Rallies ” rather than “ Buy The Dip.
” As I have noted many times previously : Yes , the market will rally , and likely substantially so .
Just don ’ t forget to take action , make changes , and get on the right side of the trade , before the “ bear returns.
” Let me conclude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Rule # 8 from our recent newsletter : • Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline .
• After this decline , there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline .
• The longer-term decline then continues , at a slower and more grinding pace , as the fundamentals deteriorate .
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between .
The chart above shows the stages of the last two primary cyclical bear markets versus today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to match . )
As would be expected , the “ Phase 1 ” selloff has been brutal .
That selloff sets up a “ reflexive bounce.
” For many individuals , they will “ feel like ” they are “ safe.
” This is how “ bear market rallies ” lure investors back in just before they are mauled again in “ Phase 3.
” Just like in 2000 , and 2008 , the media/Wall Street will be telling you to just “ hold on.
” Unfortunately , by the time “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was no one wanting to “ buy ” anything .

by Lance Roberts
Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019.
“It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘sub-prime’ debt (aka leveraged loans.) ‘Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years. The acronyms have changed a bit—’CLOs’ (collateralized loan obligations) instead of ‘CDOs’ (collateralized debt obligations), for example—but once again, we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards. Likewise, much of the borrowing is financed opaquely, outside the banking system. Many are asking whether these developments pose a new threat to financial stability. In public discussion of this issue, views seem to range from ‘This is a rerun of the subprime mortgage crisis’ to ‘Nothing to worry about here.’ At the moment, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. To preview my conclusions, as of now, business debt does not present the kind of elevated risks to the stability of the financial system that would lead to broad harm to households and businesses should conditions deteriorate.’ – Jerome Powell, May 2019 In other words, corporate debt is ‘contained.’”
As we concluded at that time:
“Unfortunately, while Jerome Powell may be currently channeling Ben Bernanke to keep markets stabilized momentarily, the real risk is some unforeseen exogenous event, such as Deutsche Bank going bankrupt, that triggers a global credit contagion.”
While the “exogenous event” was a “virus,” it led to a “credit event” which has crippled markets globally, leading the Federal Reserve to throw everything possible at trying to stem the crisis. With the Fed’s balance sheet set to expand towards $10 Trillion, the Federal deficit to balloon to $4 trillion, it is “all hands on deck” to stop the next “Great Depression” before it takes hold.
However, this is what we have been warning about:
“Pay attention to the market. There action this year is very reminiscent of previous market topping processes. Tops are hard to identify during the process as ‘change happens slowly.’The mainstream media, economists, and Wall Street will dismiss pickup in volatility as simply a corrective process. But when the topping process completes, it will seem as if the change occurred ‘all at once.’ The same media which told you ‘not to worry,’ will now tell you ‘no one could have seen it coming.’”
The only question which remains to be answered is whether the MORE debt and monetary stimulus can fix a debt and monetary stimulus bubble?
In other words, can the Fed inflate the fourth bubble to offset the implosion of the third?
Think about the insanity of that statement, but that is what the markets, and the economy, are banking on.
We do expect that with the flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus, a “bear market rally” becomes a real probability, at least in the short-term.
How big of a rally? What should you do? These are the important points in today’s missive.
The One Thing
The “ONE Thing” you need to do TODAY, right now, is “accept” where you are.
What you had, what was lost, and the mistakes you made, CAN NOT be corrected. They are in the past. However, by hanging on to those “emotions,” we lock ourselves out of the ability to take actions that will begin the corrective process.
Let me dispel some myths:
“Hope” is not an investment strategy. Hanging on to some stock you lost money in waiting for it to “get back to even,” costs you opportunity.
Hanging on to some stock you lost money in waiting for it to “get back to even,” costs you opportunity. You aren’t a loser. Whatever happened previously is over, and it doesn’t make you a “loser.” However, staying in losing positions or strategies will continue to cost you.
Whatever happened previously is over, and it doesn’t make you a “loser.” However, staying in losing positions or strategies will continue to cost you. Selling does NOT lock in losses. The losses have already occurred. Selling, however, gives you the ability to take advantage of “opportunity” to begin the recovery process.
Okay, now that we have the right “mindset,” let’s take an educated guess on what happens next.
The current bear market is exhibiting many of the same “technical traits” as seen in both the “Dot.com” and “Financial Crisis.”
In each previous case, the market experienced a parabolic advance to the initial peak. A correction ensued, which was dismissed by the mainstream media, and investors alike, as just a “pause that refreshes.” They were seemingly proved correct as the markets rebounded shortly thereafter and even set all-time highs. Investors, complacent in the belief that “this time was different” (1999 – a new paradigm, 2007 – Goldilocks economy), continued to hold out hopes the bull market was set to continue.
That was a mistake.
Also, in each period, once the monthly “sell signal” was triggered from a high level, the ensuing correction process took months to complete. This not only reset the market, but valuations as well. In both previous periods, reflexive rallies occurred, which eventually failed. While the 2008 plunge following the Lehman crisis was most similar to the current environment, there was a brief rally following the passage of TARP, which sucked investors in before the additional 22% decline in the first two months of 2009.
Most importantly, the market got very oversold early in both previous bear markets, and stayed that way for the entirety of the bear market. Currently, the market has only just now gotten to a similar oversold condition.
What all the indicators currently suggest is that while the current correction has been swift and brutal, bear markets are not resolved in a single month.
This is going to take some time.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bear Market Rally
Over the past couple of week’s, we have been talking about a potential reflexive bounce.
From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in.
As shown in the chart below, after a 35% decline in the markets from the previous highs, a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20% advance. Such an advance will “lure” investors back into the market, thinking the “bear market” is over.
This is what “bear market rallies” do, and generally inflict the most pain possible on unwitting investors. The reasons for this are many, but primarily investors who were trapped in the recent decline will use the rally to “flee” the markets permanently.
Chart Updated Through Monday
More importantly, as noted above, “bear markets” are not resolved in a single month. Currently, there are too many investors trying to figure out where “the bottom” is, so they can “buy” it.
Bear markets do not end in optimism; they end in despair.
Looking back at 2008, numerous indicators suggest the “bear market” has only just begun. While this does NOT rule out a fairly strong reflexive rally, it suggests that any rally will ultimately fail as the bear market completes its cycle.
This can be seen more clearly in the monthly chart below, which looks at both previous bull and bear markets using a Fibonacci retracement. As shown, from the peak of both previous bull market “bubbles,” the market reversed 61.8% of the advance during the “Dot.com” crash, and more than 100% of the advance during the “Financial Crisis.”
Given the current bull market cycle was longer, more levered, and more extended than both previous bull markets, a 38.2% decline is unlikely to fulfill the requirements of this reversion. Our ultimate target of 1600-1800 on the S&P 500 remains confirmed by the quarterly chart below.
The current correction process has only just triggered a quarterly sell signal combined with a break from an extreme deviation of the long-term bull-trend back to the 1930’s. Both previous bull market peaks coincide with the long-term bull trend at about 1600 on the S&P currently. Given all the stimulus being infused into the markets currently, we broaden our bear market bottom target to 1600-1800, as noted.
The technical signals, which do indeed lag short-term turns in the market, all confirm the “bear market” is only just awakening. While bullish reflexive rallies are very likely, and should be used to your advantage, this is a “traders” market for the time being.
In other words, the new mantra for the market, for the time being, will be to “Sell Rallies” rather than “Buy The Dip.”
As I have noted many times previously:
“This ‘time is not different,’ and there will be few investors that truly have the fortitude to ‘ride out’ the next decline. Everyone eventually sells. The only difference is ‘selling when you want to,’ versus ‘selling when you have to.’”
Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so. Just don’t forget to take action, make changes, and get on the right side of the trade, before the “bear returns.”
Let me conclude by reminding you of Bob Farrell’s Rule #8 from our recent newsletter:
Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.
The chart above shows the stages of the last two primary cyclical bear markets versus today (the 2020 scale has been adjusted to match.)
As would be expected, the “Phase 1” selloff has been brutal.
That selloff sets up a “reflexive bounce.” For many individuals, they will “feel like” they are “safe.” This is how “bear market rallies” lure investors back in just before they are mauled again in “Phase 3.”
Just like in 2000, and 2008, the media/Wall Street will be telling you to just “hold on.” Unfortunately, by the time “Phase 3” was finished, there was no one wanting to “buy” anything.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Relax! – Look at the numbers from Denmark…11 days lockdown, 6% ICU capacity, low fatality rate. Ther

Relax! – Look at the numbers from Denmark…11 days lockdown, 6% ICU capacity, low fatality rate. There is NO Corona-epidemic in Denmark

While media-pushed FEAR has put a majority of us into a state of panic – I urge you to take a look at the situation in Denmark .
Our society has more or less been closed down for 11 days , but the numbers we get from the authorities on a daily basis ( released every day at noon ) – shows that there is no development that resembles an epidemic situation ( ! )
.
We are currently only using 6 % of our normal ICU capacity , most wards are empty .
There is no fast-paced spread of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lockdown we should have seen it in the numbers by now .
To be clear : There is nothing in the numbers that indicate an epidemic situation .
There is nothing in the numbers indicating that this is more lethal than many other infections .
Only very few die of Corona .
Almost all diseased in Denmark ( as of now 32 of 5,8 million , i.e 0,00055 % ) had severe co-morbidities , were older and some of them where even terminally ill. That is why our press keeps reporting that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Corona ” ( not from Corona ) … .
they love doing this , knowing very well that its scaring and intimidating the less-critical reader ( such as young and older people…that we should protect , not scare to depression and anxiety…FU MSM ) .
The way authorities are counting fatalities is counter-intuitive , illogical and highly misleading : “ Every person that is diseased with a positive Corona test is a Corona fatality ” .
Do take a look for yourself at Denmark and our numbers , google is your friend @

While media-pushed FEAR has put a majority of us into a state of panic – I urge you to take a look at the situation in Denmark. Our society has more or less been closed down for 11 days, but the numbers we get from the authorities on a daily basis (released every day at noon) – shows that there is no development that resembles an epidemic situation (!).
We are currently only using 6% of our normal ICU capacity, most wards are empty. There is no fast-paced spread of Corona – and if there where before the lockdown we should have seen it in the numbers by now.
To be clear: There is nothing in the numbers that indicate an epidemic situation. There is nothing in the numbers indicating that this is more lethal than many other infections. Only very few die of Corona.
Almost all diseased in Denmark (as of now 32 of 5,8 million, i.e 0,00055%) had severe co-morbidities, were older and some of them where even terminally ill. That is why our press keeps reporting that “Breaking: xx people have died with Corona” (not from Corona) …. they love doing this, knowing very well that its scaring and intimidating the less-critical reader (such as young and older people…that we should protect, not scare to depression and anxiety…FU MSM).
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The way authorities are counting fatalities is counter-intuitive, illogical and highly misleading: “Every person that is diseased with a positive Corona test is a Corona fatality”.
Do take a look for yourself at Denmark and our numbers, google is your friend.
Relax, breathe, inform.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--IL/Chicago just locked down everyone! Millions of Citizens.

IL Governor just ordered SHELTER IN PLACE !
Holy f*ck this is for real now .
It ’ s all @ @ @ @ @ gets so real that you ’ re part of the several couple Democratic states/cities that @ @ @ @ @ via TV .
Holy shit .
We ’ re all doomed .
Read the headline @ @ @ @ @ .
Chicago is Locked down… .
Then read about 3 paragraphs into the article… .
@ @ @ @ @ grocery stores , put gas in their cars , take walks outside and make pharmacy @ @ @ @ @ and airports remain open , with interstate travel expressly permitted .
Illinoisans can leave home @ @ @ @ @ , elderly residents or other vulnerable people .
Grabbing takeout , ordering an Uber and @ @ @ @ @ are still permitted .
The order even allows liquor stores and recreational cannabis dispensaries to @ @ @ @ @ the second week of impromptu homeschooling create an essential need .

IL Governor just ordered SHELTER IN PLACE! Holy f*ck this is for real now. It’s all fun and games until doom gets so real that you’re part of the several couple Democratic states/cities that tell you to lock down via TV.
www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-shelter-in-place-lockdown-order-20200320-teedakbfw5gvdgmnaxlel54hau-story.html
Gov. J.B. Pritzker issues order requiring residents to ‘stay at home’ starting Saturday
Holy shit. We’re all doomed. Read the headline. IL is Locked Down…. Chicago is Locked down….
Then read about 3 paragraphs into the article….
And I quote….
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Residents can still go to grocery stores, put gas in their cars, take walks outside and make pharmacy runs. All local roads and airports remain open, with interstate travel expressly permitted. Illinoisans can leave home to help care for relatives, elderly residents or other vulnerable people.
Grabbing takeout, ordering an Uber and dropping off dry cleaning also are still permitted. The order even allows liquor stores and recreational cannabis dispensaries to remain open for business should the second week of impromptu homeschooling create an essential need.
h/t Shamrock0007


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Why Do Democrats Defend Illegal Aliens Against Americans?

QUESTION : Marty ; Why is Pelosi demanding same-day registration to vote ?
Is this so they don ’ t have time to check who they really are ?
ANSWER : Yes .
Pelosi and the Democrats want to protect illegal aliens and the objective is to allow them to vote .
This is an old political dream .
I have told how I had the mandate from Hong Kong to try to negotiate with the Australian government that they could buy land and move their sovereignty .
I met with the former Prime Minister of Australian Paul Keating .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ could not strike a deal .
I then asked if we could agree on them taking part in the land in the upper left-hand corner of Australian to move in bulk .
He rejected that idea as well .
I finally asked if this was a racist issue .
He , at last , explained that they were fleeing communism so they would vote conservative and upset the balance of power in Australia .
This is what the Democrats are up to .
You have states like New York and California protecting illegal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taxes .
So why are they so determined to issue these people IDs and to try to sneak them in for voting ?
The Democrats know they are losing .
Their solution is to support illegal aliens who will then vote for them against Americans who actually work and pay taxes .
This has become a completely deranged political agenda – just win at all costs .

by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; Why is Pelosi demanding same-day registration to vote? Is this so they don’t have time to check who they really are?
PC
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ANSWER: Yes. Pelosi and the Democrats want to protect illegal aliens and the objective is to allow them to vote. This is an old political dream. I have told how I had the mandate from Hong Kong to try to negotiate with the Australian government that they could buy land and move their sovereignty. I met with the former Prime Minister of Australian Paul Keating. No matter what I offered, I could not strike a deal. I then asked if we could agree on them taking part in the land in the upper left-hand corner of Australian to move in bulk. He rejected that idea as well. I finally asked if this was a racist issue. He, at last, explained that they were fleeing communism so they would vote conservative and upset the balance of power in Australia.
This is what the Democrats are up to. You have states like New York and California protecting illegal aliens who do not vote or pay taxes. So why are they so determined to issue these people IDs and to try to sneak them in for voting? The Democrats know they are losing. Their solution is to support illegal aliens who will then vote for them against Americans who actually work and pay taxes. This has become a completely deranged political agenda – just win at all costs.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Spain, France, Italy and Germany all starting to flatten out

This may be premature , or even the result of weekend reporting , but Spain , France , Italy and @ @ @ @ @ day or two of the exponential curve for both new cases and deaths changing slope @ @ @ @ @ a flat curve .
If this holds up then the end of this is in @ @ @ @ @ group that is rounding the corner toward a flat curve www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…itzerland/ Netherlands rounding the corner @ @ @ @ @ yet new deaths www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…therlands/ Europe may have turned the corner , let ’ s hope @ @ @

This may be premature, or even the result of weekend reporting, but Spain, France, Italy and Germany are all reporting a day or two of the exponential curve for both new cases and deaths changing slope and beginning to revert toward a flat curve.
www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…ry/france/
If this holds up then the end of this is in sight
add Switzerland to the group that is rounding the corner toward a flat curve
www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…itzerland/
Germany www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…y/germany/
France www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…ry/france/
Spain www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…try/spain/
Italy www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…try/italy/
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UK www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Netherlands rounding the corner in new cases but not yet new deaths
www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…therlands/
Austria is incnonclusive www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…y/austria/
Norway www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…ry/norway/
Sweden www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…ry/sweden/
Europe may have turned the corner, let’s hope this holds up
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Video Confirms Hillary’s Countdown To Infection is Almost Up

Elizabeth Vaughn from Redstate News reports , “ Watch What Happens Live ” host and producer Andy Cohen has tested @ @ @ @ @ He made the announcement in an Instagram post on Friday .

Elizabeth Vaughn from Redstate News reports, “Watch What Happens Live” host and producer Andy Cohen has tested positive for the CV. He made the announcement in an Instagram post on Friday.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/03/21/803303/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--OMG! AOC Proposes Plan that Will RUIN Our Country For GOOD!

Virginia Kruta from The Daily Caller reports , Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Sunday that she would support @ @ @ @ @ money in the hands of all Americans , regardless of wealth .
Ocasio-Cortez joined CNN @ @ @ @ @ discuss the continued spread of CV and the Trump administration ’ s response to the @ @ @

Virginia Kruta from The Daily Caller reports, Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Sunday that she would support a plan to put stimulus money in the hands of all Americans, regardless of wealth. Ocasio-Cortez joined CNN’s Jake Tapper to discuss the continued spread of CV and the Trump administration’s response to the economic impact.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
dailycaller.com/2020/03/22/al…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Luke Gromen: Stocks will keep selling off unless the Fed buys unlimited debt

• The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to @ @ @ @ @ debt .
Otherwise asset markets will crash .
• How much is enough ?
Luke @ @ @ @ @ economy shuts down completely , the Fed would have to buy “ all ” the @ @ @ @ @ s $ 47tn !
• How is Luke positioned for what ’ s on the @ @ @ @ @ a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve @ @ @ @ @ CFA designation in 2003 .
Luke provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives and is @ @ @ @ @ For The Trees , LLC , a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals @

Macro Voices, Released on 3/23/20
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The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to buy trillions of dollars of debt. Otherwise asset markets will crash.
How much is enough? Luke says in theory if the economy shuts down completely, the Fed would have to buy “all” the outstanding debt. That’s $47tn!
How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?
Luke Gromen is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003. Luke provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives and is the founder of The Forest For The Trees, LLC, a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--You Lose… THE FED IS BUYING THE WORLD and THEY NOW OWN YOU – Gregory Mannarino

Gregory Mannarino started his financial career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before @ @ @ @ @ is an active trader of the capital markets and has published several books pertaining to @ @ @ @ @ and equity trading ; His most recent book is titled Ultimate Guide To Money and @ @ @ @ @ ) .
Gregory currently hosts a business day “ MarketReport ” on YouTube .
You @ @ @ @ @ what he offers at his website Traderschoice.net .

TradersChoice.net, Released on 3/23/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gregory Mannarino started his financial career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. He is an active trader of the capital markets and has published several books pertaining to finance, global economics, and equity trading; His most recent book is titled Ultimate Guide To Money and The Markets (free ebook). Gregory currently hosts a business day “MarketReport” on YouTube. You can find out more about what he offers at his website Traderschoice.net.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Oil Majors Are Preparing For $10 Oil

Oil Majors Are Preparing For $10 Oil

The wave of oil industry spending cuts continues , with the majors now announcing significant reductions to spending as oil remains stuck in the $ 20s .
Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday that it would cut spending by 20 percent , or about $ 5 billion , and also suspend its share buyback plan .
French oil giant Total SA and Norway ’ s Equinor announced similar moves .
ExxonMobil and Chevron have suggested they too would be axing their budgets , with Exxon under particular pressure .
Goldman Sachs estimates that Chevron needs $ 50 per barrel in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
ExxonMobil , on the other hand , needs something like $ 70 .
The majors are relatively more insulated from the downturn than small and medium-sized shale drillers because they have downstream refining and petrochemical assets that have typically performed somewhat better than upstream units when prices fall .
Refineries , for instance , spend less on oil during the downturn , and low prices also translate into a boost in sales of refined products .
But the majors do not have that cushion this time around .
We are in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply crisis and a demand event with no precedent .
Estimates vary , but oil consumption could be off by 10 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) , or more .
It doesn ’ t matter how cheap crude is , if people are not driving , flying or consuming anything aside from the bare essentials , there is no demand boost from low prices .
On Monday , Exxon announced that it was cutting production at its Baton Rouge refinery , the company ’ s second largest in the U.S. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tanks .
Exxon also cut 1,800 contractors from the site .
In another example , a major closely-watched petrochemical project in Appalachia may not go forward as the market sours .
The first round of spending cuts from the oil industry is now visible , but a second round is beginning , according to a report from Goldman Sachs .
“ We see US oil production falling almost 1.4 mn bpd over five quarters post 2Q20 based on reduced drilling ( i.e.
, before considering shut-ins of existing wells that are likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down 35 % [ year-on-year ] in 2020 , ” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note .
However , budget revisions are not over .
The slide in spending , drilling and ultimately in output could deepen as capex cuts grow more pronounced .
“ There is no sugar coating it , U.S. oilfield activity will collapse with oil prices well below $ 30 WTI , ” Raymond James said on Monday .
The initial round of cuts put spending at about 45 percent below 2019 levels , the bank said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more dramatic than these initial cuts and we stress that these announcements skew towards larger cap , better hedged and capitalized operators.
” “ Total U.S. capex is likely to fall in excess of 65 % with a WTI price persisting in the $ 20s , ” the investment bank concluded .
Rystad Energy put out a similar estimate on Monday .
E & Ps are likely to cut project sanctioning by up to $ 131 billion , or about 68 % year-on-year , according to the Oslo-based firm .
“ Upstream players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at their cost levels and investment plans to counter the financial impact of lower prices and demand .
Companies have already started reducing their annual capital spending for 2020 , ” says Audun Martinsen , Rystad Energy ’ s Head of Energy Service Research .
It ’ s anybody ’ s guess how low WTI and Brent go .
But more than a few analysts have pointed to the potential for storage to max out as a reason why prices have more room to fall .
“ [ N ] o one can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shut-in fast enough to not overwhelm our ability to store oil , ” JBC Energy said in a note .
The firm pointed to refineries cutting processing because they are running out of storage , such as Exxon ’ s Baton Rouge .
“ In such an environment , it is as possible for Brent prices to briefly go to $ 10 per barrel as it was back in 1986 or 1998 , ” JBC concluded .

By Nick Cunningham
The wave of oil industry spending cuts continues, with the majors now announcing significant reductions to spending as oil remains stuck in the $20s. Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday that it would cut spending by 20 percent, or about $5 billion, and also suspend its share buyback plan. French oil giant Total SA and Norway’s Equinor announced similar moves.
ExxonMobil and Chevron have suggested they too would be axing their budgets, with Exxon under particular pressure. Goldman Sachs estimates that Chevron needs $50 per barrel in order to cover spending and its dividend. ExxonMobil, on the other hand, needs something like $70.
The majors are relatively more insulated from the downturn than small and medium-sized shale drillers because they have downstream refining and petrochemical assets that have typically performed somewhat better than upstream units when prices fall. Refineries, for instance, spend less on oil during the downturn, and low prices also translate into a boost in sales of refined products.
But the majors do not have that cushion this time around. We are in the midst of a historic meltdown – a supply crisis and a demand event with no precedent. Estimates vary, but oil consumption could be off by 10 million barrels per day (mb/d), or more. It doesn’t matter how cheap crude is, if people are not driving, flying or consuming anything aside from the bare essentials, there is no demand boost from low prices.
On Monday, Exxon announced that it was cutting production at its Baton Rouge refinery, the company’s second largest in the U.S., because poor demand has filled up storage tanks. Exxon also cut 1,800 contractors from the site. In another example, a major closely-watched petrochemical project in Appalachia may not go forward as the market sours.
The first round of spending cuts from the oil industry is now visible, but a second round is beginning, according to a report from Goldman Sachs.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“We see US oil production falling almost 1.4 mn bpd over five quarters post 2Q20 based on reduced drilling (i.e., before considering shut-ins of existing wells that are likely to be needed) with covered company capex down 35% [year-on-year] in 2020,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.
However, budget revisions are not over. The slide in spending, drilling and ultimately in output could deepen as capex cuts grow more pronounced. “There is no sugar coating it, U.S. oilfield activity will collapse with oil prices well below $30 WTI,” Raymond James said on Monday. The initial round of cuts put spending at about 45 percent below 2019 levels, the bank said. “However, the declines will be far more dramatic than these initial cuts and we stress that these announcements skew towards larger cap, better hedged and capitalized operators.”
“Total U.S. capex is likely to fall in excess of 65% with a WTI price persisting in the $20s,” the investment bank concluded.
Rystad Energy put out a similar estimate on Monday. E&Ps are likely to cut project sanctioning by up to $131 billion, or about 68% year-on-year, according to the Oslo-based firm. “Upstream players will have to take a close look at their cost levels and investment plans to counter the financial impact of lower prices and demand. Companies have already started reducing their annual capital spending for 2020,” says Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Energy Service Research.
It’s anybody’s guess how low WTI and Brent go. But more than a few analysts have pointed to the potential for storage to max out as a reason why prices have more room to fall. “[N]o one can exactly be sure that production will be shut-in fast enough to not overwhelm our ability to store oil,” JBC Energy said in a note. The firm pointed to refineries cutting processing because they are running out of storage, such as Exxon’s Baton Rouge. “In such an environment, it is as possible for Brent prices to briefly go to $10 per barrel as it was back in 1986 or 1998,” JBC concluded.
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Bix Weir: The End Game Is Here – Free Money For EVERYONE!

by Bix Weir of Road to Roota The Fed and US Gov ’ t are now giving Massive Amounts of @ @ @ @ @ ’ t put products on the shelves !
If it does anything , it will @ @ @ @ @ to play their game for a few more WEEKS !
This is INSANE !

by Bix Weir of Road to Roota
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The Fed and US Gov’t are now giving Massive Amounts of Money to EVERYONE…but that won’t put products on the shelves! If it does anything, it will allow all the Market Riggers to play their game for a few more WEEKS! This is INSANE!


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Paul Craig Roberts: Debt Forgiveness & Nationalization Are The Answers To This Economic Crisis

The US airline companies have bankrupted themselves by buying back their stock in an enrichment scheme for CEOs and board members ( www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/david-stockman/the-crony-capitalist-thieves-are-back/ ) .
With the impact of the virus on their revenues , Congress is handing them a $ 50 billion bailout .
Instead of being bailed out they should be nationalized .
In the health and economic crisis in which we find ourselves , the government is going to need all the public trust it can get .
Bailouts of those who caused their problems and ours won ’ t meet the fairness test .
As I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ word for many , but it actually offers a chance to correct for the decades of deregulation and concentration and thereby restore competition to the economy .
Nationalized banks too-big-to-fail , for example , can later be broken up and the pieces sold back into private hands .
Commercial banks can again be separated from investment banks , and concentrated financial power can be broken .
Now that we know that markets are not self-regulating , we can restore sensible financial regulation and require banks to lend for productive purposes , not for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US financial system has not served the productive side of the US economy for a long time .
While ordinary heavily indebted Americans are losing their jobs right and left as businesses close , shopping center lobbyists are asking for a $ 1 trillion guarantee .
The hotel industry wants $ 150 billion .
The restaurant industry wants $ 145 billion .
The National Association of Manufacturers wants $ 1.4 trillion .
( www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-1-trillion-rescue-package-might-not-be-enough-for-businesses.html ) Food service distributors are in trouble .
Boeing wants $ 60 billion funded in part by loan guarantees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The US conference of mayors wants $ 250 billion .
The list is endless .
And what is to be done for the 40 % of Americans who , according to a Federal Reserve study , can not raise $ 400 in cash without selling personal property ?
How are the large number of uninsured going to be cared for during this health crisis ?
Where will hospitals and medical practices get the money ?
The only solution is to nationalize health care so that the bills can be paid .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and jobless people roaming the streets raiding for food and whatever they can take .
The only solution for the economy is debt forgiveness for the ordinary people and nationalization for the companies .
Trump indicated that aid might be given in the form of an equity stake , and later sell the government ’ s stake for a profit in a privatization when things return to normal .
This would be a partial nationalization .
Much better to go whole hog as it allows a cure for concentration and deregulation .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ society of self-seeking individuals is not a society .
A society is a social system .
A successful social system is one that can support its members .
Once a self-sustaining social system exists , then there is a basis for people to branch out on their own .
But without a sustainable social system , there can be nothing .
To create a sustainable society in the United States requires the abandonment of dogmatic ways of thinking .
Old ideologies are in the way .
We and our leaders must think creatively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the health and economic crisis .

by Paul Craig Roberts via PaulCraigRoberts.org
The US airline companies have bankrupted themselves by buying back their stock in an enrichment scheme for CEOs and board members (www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/david-stockman/the-crony-capitalist-thieves-are-back/). With the impact of the virus on their revenues, Congress is handing them a $50 billion bailout. Instead of being bailed out they should be nationalized.
In the health and economic crisis in which we find ourselves, the government is going to need all the public trust it can get. Bailouts of those who caused their problems and ours won’t meet the fairness test.
As I previously wrote, nationalization is a four-letter word for many, but it actually offers a chance to correct for the decades of deregulation and concentration and thereby restore competition to the economy. Nationalized banks too-big-to-fail, for example, can later be broken up and the pieces sold back into private hands. Commercial banks can again be separated from investment banks, and concentrated financial power can be broken.
Now that we know that markets are not self-regulating, we can restore sensible financial regulation and require banks to lend for productive purposes, not for financializing and leveraging existing assets. The US financial system has not served the productive side of the US economy for a long time.
While ordinary heavily indebted Americans are losing their jobs right and left as businesses close, shopping center lobbyists are asking for a $1 trillion guarantee. The hotel industry wants $150 billion. The restaurant industry wants $145 billion. The National Association of Manufacturers wants $1.4 trillion. (www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-1-trillion-rescue-package-might-not-be-enough-for-businesses.html) Food service distributors are in trouble. Boeing wants $60 billion funded in part by loan guarantees. Local and state governments need support. The US conference of mayors wants $250 billion. The list is endless.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And what is to be done for the 40% of Americans who, according to a Federal Reserve study, cannot raise $400 in cash without selling personal property? How are the large number of uninsured going to be cared for during this health crisis? Where will hospitals and medical practices get the money?
The only solution is to nationalize health care so that the bills can be paid. We cannot survive large numbers of infected and jobless people roaming the streets raiding for food and whatever they can take.
The only solution for the economy is debt forgiveness for the ordinary people and nationalization for the companies. Trump indicated that aid might be given in the form of an equity stake, and later sell the government’s stake for a profit in a privatization when things return to normal. This would be a partial nationalization. Much better to go whole hog as it allows a cure for concentration and deregulation.
The pandemic has made it clear that a society of self-seeking individuals is not a society. A society is a social system. A successful social system is one that can support its members. Once a self-sustaining social system exists, then there is a basis for people to branch out on their own. But without a sustainable social system, there can be nothing.
To create a sustainable society in the United States requires the abandonment of dogmatic ways of thinking. Old ideologies are in the way. We and our leaders must think creatively if we are to successfully deal with the health and economic crisis.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Damning truth about Nancy Pelosi’s coronavirus bill

This isn ’ t about helping Americans .
Nancy Pelosi is only trying to help herself .
Families and businesses @ @ @ @ @ the China virus pandemic .
But @ SpeakerPelosi walked away from negotiations to write her @ @ @ @ @ absurd provisions completely unrelated to the crisis at hand .
Here ’ s what Speaker @ @ @ @ @ suffer : 1 .
Corporate pay statistics by race and race statistics for all corporate @ @ @ @ @ 2 .
Bailing out all current debt of postal service 6 .
For companies accepting @ @ @ @ @ members must be chosen by workers 7 .
Provisions on official time for union collective @ @ @ @ @ opportunity in this crisis .
Not to help the American people , but to hold @ @ @ @ @ until they get their radical wish list .
How long will Arkansans and Americans across @ @ @ @ @ ?

Tom Cotton lays out damning truth about Nancy Pelosi’s coronavirus bill
This isn’t about helping Americans. Nancy Pelosi is only trying to help herself.
Tom Cotton
@SenTomCotton
Families and businesses need help now to survive the China virus pandemic. But @SpeakerPelosi walked away from negotiations to write her own bill, full of absurd provisions completely unrelated to the crisis at hand. Here’s what Speaker Pelosi is demanding while Americans suffer:
1. Corporate pay statistics by race and race statistics for all corporate boards at companies receiving assistance
2. Bailing out all current debt of postal service
3. Required early voting
4. Required same day voter registration
5. 10k bailout for student loans
6. For companies accepting assistance, 1/3 of board members must be chosen by workers
7. Provisions on official time for union collective bargaining
8. Full offset of airline emissions by 2025
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9. Greenhouse gas statistics for individual flights
10. Retirement plans for community newspaper employees
11. $15 minimum wage at companies receiving assistance
12. Permanent paid leave at companies receiving assistance
The Democrats see an opportunity in this crisis.
Not to help the American people, but to hold an emergency relief bill hostage until they get their radical wish list.
How long will Arkansans and Americans across the country have to wait?
Families and businesses need help now to survive the China virus pandemic. But @SpeakerPelosi walked away from negotiations to write her own bill, full of absurd provisions completely unrelated to the crisis at hand. Here’s what Speaker Pelosi is demanding while Americans suffer: — Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) March 23, 2020
AMERICA HELD HOSTAGE, NANCY PELOSI EDITION:
Related:
UPDATE: Now trending: #PelosiHatesAmericans.
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Fed has completely lost their grip on the market. Stimulus was never coming out early in the week, t

Fed has completely lost their grip on the market. Stimulus was never coming out early in the week, they are waiting to cushion the jobs report.

Every time market has limited-down fed comes out with some bogus news conference trying to pump the market .
The stimulus package was never meant to come out early this week , they are waiting until end of week after the brutal jobs report comes out .
They need a cushion .
• Donald Pump having daily meetings trying to pump market .
• Today ’ s pre-market pump was only way to keep market after limit-down , it still didn ’ t save face .
• Trump going out and saying treatments are working when doctors are saying that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cure .
• Trump pushing you get the workforce back out there ( during a pandemic lol ) , means he ’ s FKn desperate to get the economy rolling .
Moving forward here ’ s some shit that ’ s already pRiCeD iN and probably won ’ t move the market .
-Cases increase by X amount each day -More cities go on lockdown .
-Bad unemployment numbers .
-Bad earnings reports .
-Fed chatting about stimulus and QE .
-Italy/Spain/Europe getting worse .
THOSE ARE PRICED IN .
-Hospitals in hotspot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of ventilators + icu units become a shit show .
As of right now NYC is under control , so it will depend on how it plays out in 1-2 more weeks .
There must be PANIC for it to effect the market moving forward .
-Fed injecting 4 trillion into the economy that prioritizes small businesses and gives money to the general population .
-Bad jobs/unemployment reports are priced in .
What ’ s not priced in are insanely bad numbers which is a possibility as whyTrump is trying to delay release @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still pending .
I think this week will be mostly green pending jobs report and stimulus… we ’ ll need to wait until the next surge of panic ( if that comes ) and economy coming to a halt before market has bigger legs down .
Market has already gone down 35 % in a few weeks , don ’ t be greedy and expect more on any bad news .
It ’ s going to take more panic to make bigger moves down , the kind of panic you don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus to spread beyond control in the states , or unemployment to rise , just so you can make $ 50 bucks .
I think we stay green this week and move into more blood red days the following week .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by swaggymedia
Every time market has limited-down fed comes out with some bogus news conference trying to pump the market.
The stimulus package was never meant to come out early this week, they are waiting until end of week after the brutal jobs report comes out. They need a cushion.
Donald Pump having daily meetings trying to pump market. Today’s pre-market pump was only way to keep market after limit-down, it still didn’t save face. Trump going out and saying treatments are working when doctors are saying that they help but aren’t the cure. Trump pushing you get the workforce back out there (during a pandemic lol), means he’s FKn desperate to get the economy rolling.
Moving forward here’s some shit that’s already pRiCeD iN and probably won’t move the market.
-Cases increase by X amount each day -More cities go on lockdown. -Bad unemployment numbers. -Bad earnings reports. -Fed chatting about stimulus and QE. -Italy/Spain/Europe getting worse.
THOSE ARE PRICED IN.
WHATS NOT PRICED IN:
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-Hospitals in hotspot cities become unbearably overwhelmed and run out of ventilators + icu units become a shit show. As of right now NYC is under control, so it will depend on how it plays out in 1-2 more weeks. There must be PANIC for it to effect the market moving forward.
-Fed injecting 4 trillion into the economy that prioritizes small businesses and gives money to the general population.
-Bad jobs/unemployment reports are priced in. What’s not priced in are insanely bad numbers which is a possibility as whyTrump is trying to delay release. This is why the stimulus is still pending.
I think this week will be mostly green pending jobs report and stimulus… we’ll need to wait until the next surge of panic (if that comes) and economy coming to a halt before market has bigger legs down.
Market has already gone down 35% in a few weeks, don’t be greedy and expect more on any bad news. It’s going to take more panic to make bigger moves down, the kind of panic you don’t even want to happen. Nobody wants the virus to spread beyond control in the states, or unemployment to rise, just so you can make $50 bucks.
I think we stay green this week and move into more blood red days the following week.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession

We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance .
It is going to explode .
Let ’ s look at this data from Homebase .
A stunning 39 % drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the U.S. just in the 10 days ended Friday , March 20 .
Is there anybody who thinks that ’ s not going to increase ?
Many of the hardest-hit cities—San Francisco , San Jose , Seattle , New York—showed steep declines last week that align with the rise in coronavirus cases .
Seattle was the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but other cities quickly caught up .
The introduction of forced closures and shelter-in-place orders has furthered the slowdown .
San Francisco , Boston , Pittsburgh , New York , and San Jose currently have the greatest reduction in hours worked , down by more than 50 % in each city on Tuesday .
3 out of 5 workers in San Francisco did not go to work last week .
It will get worse .
The reduction in work hours there was 64 % .
Middle America cities are in the 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been tracking government data on employment .
Extrapolating the loss of jobs would mean an unemployment rate of close to 12 % and a U-6 rate of 39 % .
Even if Shedlock is wrong by half , that unemployment number ALREADY is staggering .
We are literally down well over 10 million jobs and going to 20 million .
Amazon is hiring 100,000 workers and giving them all a raise .
Good on Jeff Bezos .
Seriously .
But that is only a fraction of 1 % of the jobs we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government collectively , should step in to help the remainder of those people .
The coronavirus is not their fault .
Just a small snapshot of how the virus is hurting healthy people : • A hotel exec friend who runs 125 hotels has let 90 % –95 % of the staff go .
Literally tens of thousands .
There are 54,000 hotels in the country .
Do the math .
• Another friend handles the backroom for 2,200 dentists .
80 % have shut down because they can ’ t get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There are 100,000 dentists with an average employment of maybe 10 people .
Minimum 500,000 employees , plus dentists , without income .
Average income per employee is $ 50,000 .
Dentists are critical , but they need basic gear to do their jobs .
There are literally hundreds of examples .
Nobody in their right mind , given what might happen this week , can possibly think these employment numbers will not get worse .
These are not recession numbers .
Let me be clear .
The U.S. is facing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economic impacts we are seeing and think they will magically go away when the virus does .
That ’ s not how economics and business work .
I am not the first person to say it , but we need something like a Marshall Plan for the U.S .
I recognize that Europe and the rest of the world are struggling too .
I get it .
But the entire world will go into a deflationary depression if we do not solve the crisis in the U.S. Hopefully an eventually strong U.S @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I am calling for significant quantitative easing or whatever you want to call it .
I get the irony in that .
The Federal Reserve is largely responsible for where we are today , keeping rates too low for too long , and the government running deficits way beyond nominal GDP .
These are bad things .
But we have to deal with the situation as it is today .
And today , much of our country is under stress and wondering how they ’ re going to feed their families .
How @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bills ?
100 other items ?
Some of us can individually help our family and friends , but collectively we need to step in and help everyone .
Grousing about bad policies and mistakes of the past doesn ’ t solve the problems we face today .
There is no need to punish the average American for bad Federal Reserve policy that they had no control over any more than we should punish them for the coronavirus .
When this is all over , we can think about how we ensure better policy @ @ @ @

By John Mauldin
We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance. It is going to explode. Let’s look at this data from Homebase.
A stunning 39% drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the U.S. just in the 10 days ended Friday, March 20.
Is there anybody who thinks that’s not going to increase?
Quoting from Homebase:
Many of the hardest-hit cities—San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, New York—showed steep declines last week that align with the rise in coronavirus cases. Seattle was the first to see significant impact early last week, but other cities quickly caught up. The introduction of forced closures and shelter-in-place orders has furthered the slowdown. San Francisco, Boston, Pittsburgh, New York, and San Jose currently have the greatest reduction in hours worked, down by more than 50% in each city on Tuesday.
3 out of 5 workers in San Francisco did not go to work last week. It will get worse. The reduction in work hours there was 64%. Middle America cities are in the 40 to 50% range.
Mike Shedlock has been tracking government data on employment. Extrapolating the loss of jobs would mean an unemployment rate of close to 12% and a U-6 rate of 39%.
Even if Shedlock is wrong by half, that unemployment number ALREADY is staggering. We are literally down well over 10 million jobs and going to 20 million.
Amazon is hiring 100,000 workers and giving them all a raise. Good on Jeff Bezos. Seriously. But that is only a fraction of 1% of the jobs we are losing. We the People, the government collectively, should step in to help the remainder of those people. The coronavirus is not their fault.
Just a small snapshot of how the virus is hurting healthy people:
A hotel exec friend who runs 125 hotels has let 90%–95% of the staff go. Literally tens of thousands. There are 54,000 hotels in the country. Do the math.
Another friend handles the backroom for 2,200 dentists. 80% have shut down because they can’t get the masks and other things they need. There are 100,000 dentists with an average employment of maybe 10 people. Minimum 500,000 employees, plus dentists, without income. Average income per employee is $50,000. Dentists are critical, but they need basic gear to do their jobs.
There are literally hundreds of examples.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Nobody in their right mind, given what might happen this week, can possibly think these employment numbers will not get worse.
These are not recession numbers.
They are depression numbers.
Let me be clear. The U.S. is facing a deflationary depression. One cannot have the economic impacts we are seeing and think they will magically go away when the virus does. That’s not how economics and business work.
I am not the first person to say it, but we need something like a Marshall Plan for the U.S.
I recognize that Europe and the rest of the world are struggling too. I get it. But the entire world will go into a deflationary depression if we do not solve the crisis in the U.S. Hopefully an eventually strong U.S can help lead the world out.
I am calling for significant quantitative easing or whatever you want to call it. I get the irony in that. The Federal Reserve is largely responsible for where we are today, keeping rates too low for too long, and the government running deficits way beyond nominal GDP. These are bad things.
But we have to deal with the situation as it is today. And today, much of our country is under stress and wondering how they’re going to feed their families. How do they pay their rent? Electric bills? 100 other items?
Some of us can individually help our family and friends, but collectively we need to step in and help everyone.
Grousing about bad policies and mistakes of the past doesn’t solve the problems we face today. There is no need to punish the average American for bad Federal Reserve policy that they had no control over any more than we should punish them for the coronavirus.
When this is all over, we can think about how we ensure better policy in the future.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Reuters: PG&E utility to plead guilty to involuntary manslaughter over 2018 fire

PG & E Corp ( PCG.N ) said on Monday its utility unit agreed to plead guilty to 84 involuntary @ @ @ @ @ the 2018 Camp Fire , the most destructive fire in California ’ s history .
@ @ @ @ @ PG & E said the plea by its Pacific Gas & Electric unit was part @ @ @ @ @ agreement with California and the Butte County District Attorney ’ s office .
PG & @ @ @ @ @ also requires the utility to pay the maximum $ 3.5 million fine plus $ 500,000 @ @ @ @ @ all criminal proceedings against the company and its units .

www.reuters.com/article/us-pg-e-us-bankruptcy/pge-to-plead-guilty-to-84-involuntary-manslaughter-counts-over-2018-wildfire-idUSKBN21A1TJ
PG&E Corp (PCG.N) said on Monday its utility unit agreed to plead guilty to 84 involuntary manslaughter counts in connection with the 2018 Camp Fire, the most destructive fire in California’s history.
In a regulatory filing, PG&E said the plea by its Pacific Gas & Electric unit was part of a March 17 plea agreement with California and the Butte County District Attorney’s office.
PG&E also said the agreement also requires the utility to pay the maximum $3.5 million fine plus $500,000 in costs, and end all criminal proceedings against the company and its units.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Why people say that in times like this Fed printing money and government “bailouts” are bad?

Simplest answer ?
General ignorance of how these polices are implemented , what ’ s driving the problems in the economy , their impact and what exactly the stakes are if they are not pursued .
In general it tends to boil down to some oddball moralizing argument about how debt is innately bad and you periodically need waves of mass bankruptcies to cleanse the system in some manner .
More recently and coronavirus specific there ’ s also an oddly apathetic attitude that the only way to address issues is simply deal with the virus , or if we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run its course and pick up the pieces later .
The Federal Reserve , its policies and their mechanics in the financial system are also grossly misunderstood in general .
You ’ ll get stupid statements about money printing and monetizing debt when the truth of the matter is that pretty much everything the Fed does and has been doing relies on either increase the amount of bank reserves in the system or doing collateralized loans and acting as a market maker .
Stuff like QE and many of their lending facilities are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as they were in the GFC .
You can tack on a huge misunderstanding about how and why the Federal Reserve generally moves interest rates and the economy ’ s response to the list of why you see idiotic statements about policy here too .
There ’ s a belief among a lot of people that because interest rates were in the 4-5 % range 20-30 years ago that ’ s where they should have been 5 years ago despite the inflation expectations that are set by the market itself being far far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the misconception that the current problem is because companies were innately overleveraged in general versus there being a frankly unprecedented drop in demand of 80 % + across the entire globe .
Usually tacked on to that is the belief that coronavirus “ isn ’ t the real problem ” just a trigger .
While it ’ s always true that better balance sheets help in any slow down , the absolutely severity of this event is much worse than your run of the mill recession or even the great recession for at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s one thing if demand drops 10-20 % in one country and completely another if it ’ s dropping by 80-90 % + and the government flat out bans your ability to do business in many instances and your earnings/cash flow absolutely collapse .
I don ’ t think there ’ s any appreciation for just how bad things have become in credit markets either and the fact that the Federal Reserve ’ s policy primarily targets those markets .
Spreads have blown out and everyone wants cash to weather the storm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very few actual buyers without the Fed stepping in to backstop markets or loan cash out against safe securities like treasuries and agency MBS debt .
Credit lines are maxed out and banks are loathe to extend additional credit given the uncertainty going forward and their existing commitments .
People piss and moan about the Federal Reserve creating money , but the chief way in which money creation actually occurs is via banks loaning new money into existence and most of the ‘ money ’ the Fed puts out there doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks lend against ( which they don ’ t even need to right now given reserve requirements are at zero ) .
Deflation is the bigger risk right now given the enormous pull back in lending across the board along with the velocity of money slowing greatly due to lay offs , furloughs and lower consumption due to people hunkering down .
The supply shocks people were worried about several weeks ago almost seem like an afterthought at this point , but may prove problematic going forward after the worst of the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going again .
Fiscal policy is viewed in much the same way .
Stimulus entails taking on debt which some people are just universally against and there ’ s the same group of apathetic ‘ nothing matters until the virus is gone ’ people in there too who see it as just a waste of money versus a way to keep households and businesses from collapsing in the interim period .
In general almost all of these subjects are fairly complex , dry and super esoteric .
The vast majority of people aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to actually research and read up on them to the extent necessary to have a decent understanding of them .
They likely get their news from some fringe political website or YouTube channel and it shows just about every time they try to debate someone knowledgeable on the subject .
Thankfully the people in charge of making decisions and implementing policy do understand the mechanics and risks for the most part , though there can be ideological factions that hamstring responsiveness as we ’ re seeing the fiscal stimulus bill currently .
Disclaimer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ObservationalHumor
Simplest answer? General ignorance of how these polices are implemented, what’s driving the problems in the economy, their impact and what exactly the stakes are if they are not pursued.
In general it tends to boil down to some oddball moralizing argument about how debt is innately bad and you periodically need waves of mass bankruptcies to cleanse the system in some manner. More recently and coronavirus specific there’s also an oddly apathetic attitude that the only way to address issues is simply deal with the virus, or if we can’t wait for it to run its course and pick up the pieces later.
The Federal Reserve, its policies and their mechanics in the financial system are also grossly misunderstood in general. You’ll get stupid statements about money printing and monetizing debt when the truth of the matter is that pretty much everything the Fed does and has been doing relies on either increase the amount of bank reserves in the system or doing collateralized loans and acting as a market maker. Stuff like QE and many of their lending facilities are also reversible and can be wound down as they were in the GFC. You can tack on a huge misunderstanding about how and why the Federal Reserve generally moves interest rates and the economy’s response to the list of why you see idiotic statements about policy here too. There’s a belief among a lot of people that because interest rates were in the 4-5% range 20-30 years ago that’s where they should have been 5 years ago despite the inflation expectations that are set by the market itself being far far below that.
There’s also the misconception that the current problem is because companies were innately overleveraged in general versus there being a frankly unprecedented drop in demand of 80%+ across the entire globe. Usually tacked on to that is the belief that coronavirus “isn’t the real problem” just a trigger. While it’s always true that better balance sheets help in any slow down, the absolutely severity of this event is much worse than your run of the mill recession or even the great recession for at least the next 4-8 weeks.
It’s one thing if demand drops 10-20% in one country and completely another if it’s dropping by 80-90%+ and the government flat out bans your ability to do business in many instances and your earnings/cash flow absolutely collapse.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I don’t think there’s any appreciation for just how bad things have become in credit markets either and the fact that the Federal Reserve’s policy primarily targets those markets. Spreads have blown out and everyone wants cash to weather the storm here, which means there’s very few actual buyers without the Fed stepping in to backstop markets or loan cash out against safe securities like treasuries and agency MBS debt. Credit lines are maxed out and banks are loathe to extend additional credit given the uncertainty going forward and their existing commitments. People piss and moan about the Federal Reserve creating money, but the chief way in which money creation actually occurs is via banks loaning new money into existence and most of the ‘money’ the Fed puts out there doesn’t actually circulate in the real economy until banks lend against (which they don’t even need to right now given reserve requirements are at zero). Deflation is the bigger risk right now given the enormous pull back in lending across the board along with the velocity of money slowing greatly due to lay offs, furloughs and lower consumption due to people hunkering down. The supply shocks people were worried about several weeks ago almost seem like an afterthought at this point, but may prove problematic going forward after the worst of the virus has passed and business has to start going again.
Fiscal policy is viewed in much the same way. Stimulus entails taking on debt which some people are just universally against and there’s the same group of apathetic ‘nothing matters until the virus is gone’ people in there too who see it as just a waste of money versus a way to keep households and businesses from collapsing in the interim period.
In general almost all of these subjects are fairly complex, dry and super esoteric. The vast majority of people aren’t going to take the time to actually research and read up on them to the extent necessary to have a decent understanding of them. They likely get their news from some fringe political website or YouTube channel and it shows just about every time they try to debate someone knowledgeable on the subject.
Thankfully the people in charge of making decisions and implementing policy do understand the mechanics and risks for the most part, though there can be ideological factions that hamstring responsiveness as we’re seeing the fiscal stimulus bill currently.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-24--Recent events in oil geopolitics.

Recent events in oil geopolitics.

So just another oil update here .
Things seem to be coming to a head quickly as major oil refiners like Exxon are opting to reduce refinery output .
This might prove problematic for Saudi Arabia ’ s strategy of flooding the market with oil as there ’ s literally no one to buy it and their decision to reserve a huge number of tankers has made freight rates too expensive .
Additionally so far there has been no increase in product supplied out of Saudi Arabia , which is technically in line with their guidance and maintenance of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some doubt about their willingness to follow through .
Article : www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-saudi/despite-opec-deal-collapse-saudi-oil-exports-yet-to-rise-sources-idUSKBN21A321 Additionally Russia might already be backtracking a bit from their previously aggressive posture about immediately raising production in April .
Saudi Arabia and the United States are also in talks to find some other way to stabilize the oil market which might include an alliance between the two : www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa-saudi/u-s-saudi-alliance-one-of-many-ideas-being-discussed-u-s-energy-secretary-idUSKBN21A2WW We ’ re still early into this by any measure but it does seem like it ’ s less and less likely that anyone has the resolve or really the ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand environment .
I suspect we might see everyone reapproaching the table sooner than expected if the US can get shale producers to reduce output by even 5-10 % which they might be doing anyways at this point given the cuts to capex budgets and layoffs we ’ ve already seen .
Things could fall apart again tomorrow but it does seem like there ’ s some reasons to believe this might not end up being quite as bad as previously threatened at this point .

by ObservationalHumor
So just another oil update here. Things seem to be coming to a head quickly as major oil refiners like Exxon are opting to reduce refinery output. This might prove problematic for Saudi Arabia’s strategy of flooding the market with oil as there’s literally no one to buy it and their decision to reserve a huge number of tankers has made freight rates too expensive.
Additionally so far there has been no increase in product supplied out of Saudi Arabia, which is technically in line with their guidance and maintenance of the prior cut agreement but might is bringing some doubt about their willingness to follow through. Article: www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-saudi/despite-opec-deal-collapse-saudi-oil-exports-yet-to-rise-sources-idUSKBN21A321
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Additionally Russia might already be backtracking a bit from their previously aggressive posture about immediately raising production in April.
Saudi Arabia and the United States are also in talks to find some other way to stabilize the oil market which might include an alliance between the two: www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa-saudi/u-s-saudi-alliance-one-of-many-ideas-being-discussed-u-s-energy-secretary-idUSKBN21A2WW
We’re still early into this by any measure but it does seem like it’s less and less likely that anyone has the resolve or really the ability to actually hike output in the current demand environment. I suspect we might see everyone reapproaching the table sooner than expected if the US can get shale producers to reduce output by even 5-10% which they might be doing anyways at this point given the cuts to capex budgets and layoffs we’ve already seen. Things could fall apart again tomorrow but it does seem like there’s some reasons to believe this might not end up being quite as bad as previously threatened at this point.