investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--Scenario: The Pandemic/hospital situation becomes so bad in the US during December that people becom

Scenario: The Pandemic/hospital situation becomes so bad in the US during December that people become terrified, all food shops are emptied out and most people – even many essential workers stop leaving home.

Bill Gates calls U.S. ’ s failure to contain the coronavirus ‘ mind blowing , ’ warns that colder months will be ‘ very tough ’ ARTICLE What probability do you believe something this bad has of occurring ?
10 % 30 % 50 % 70 % or 90 % + Might be wise to stock up so that you don ’ t have to leave home for the entire month of December if you rate it 50 % or higher From Wikipedia : “ Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a disaster , when it might affect them , and its potential adverse effects.
” Most people in western countries have so little experience of “ Overwhelmed Hospitals ” and what that portends that they are incapable of taking the threat of such an event seriously .
Edit : WHO warns vaccine won ’ t help countries fend off current wave of infections www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/who-warns-vaccine-wont-help-countries-fend-off-current-wave-of-infections-.html “ There is now aggressive , unrelenting , expanding broad community spread across the country , reaching most counties , without evidence of improvement but rather , further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus task force ’ s latest weekly report , which was obtained by NBC News .

by mark000
Resource Availability Law & Order OK Hospitals Sorry Out Of Order Try Tomorrow Goods Many become Out Of Stock Utilities What if Workers sick/absent? Financial System May Shit Itself in January
Bill Gates calls U.S.’s failure to contain the coronavirus ‘mind blowing,’ warns that colder months will be ‘very tough’ ARTICLE
Chart of Daily hospitalization (with COVID) level: covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized
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What probability do you believe something this bad has of occurring? 10% 30% 50% 70% or 90%+
Might be wise to stock up so that you don’t have to leave home for the entire month of December if you rate it 50% or higher
From Wikipedia: “Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects.”
Most people in western countries have so little experience of “Overwhelmed Hospitals” and what that portends that they are incapable of taking the threat of such an event seriously.
Edit:
WHO warns vaccine won’t help countries fend off current wave of infections
www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/who-warns-vaccine-wont-help-countries-fend-off-current-wave-of-infections-.html
“There is now aggressive, unrelenting, expanding broad community spread across the country, reaching most counties, without evidence of improvement but rather, further deterioration,” read the White House coronavirus task force’s latest weekly report, which was obtained by NBC News.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--Gov. Cuomo to press: “Let’s try not to be obnoxious and offensive”

My goodness , this is insane .
Gov .
Andrew Cuomo ’ s handling of the Wuhan virus in New @ @ @ @ @ homes order , anyone ? )
yet it didn ’ t stop him from writing @ @ @ @ @ leaderhship ” nor did it stop the press from fawning all over him .
So @ @ @ @ @ with the press ?
The press guy asking Cuomo a question doesn ’ t sound @ @ @ @ @ means .
Have you not seen/heard how the press treats President Trump ?
Cuomo goes @ @ @ @ @ Watch :

by DCG
My goodness, this is insane.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s handling of the Wuhan virus in New York was disasterous (nursing homes order, anyone?) yet it didn’t stop him from writing a book about his “leaderhship” nor did it stop the press from fawning all over him.
So why is he so angry with the press?
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The press guy asking Cuomo a question doesn’t sound “obnoxious” by any means. Have you not seen/heard how the press treats President Trump? Cuomo goes off on this guy. Watch:
Gov. Cuomo just had a mental breakdown when a reporter simply asked a question about whether or not schools are open in NY tomorrow. He literally started screaming at the reporter. pic.twitter.com/NBem5zpnK0 — Caleb Hull (@CalebJHull) November 18, 2020
What a condescending you-know-what…
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--People 60 and older make up 96% of COVID-19 deaths in Ontario. Here’s why one advocate calls it ‘age

People 60 and older make up 96% of COVID-19 deaths in Ontario. Here’s why one advocate calls it ‘ageism in action’

96 % were probably a month or two away from death anyways… This is an alarming fact , right ?
?
?
Yet people can not see through the bullshit being flung at them , daily , through the world… As wave two of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on , people 60 and older — a group disproportionately represented in Ontario deaths — are looking for more supports to avoid becoming infected , one advocate says .
According to the province ’ s daily epidemiological report , 3,298 people 60 and older have died as of Nov. 19 , accounting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s total deaths .
Of those deaths , 2,193 were residing in long-term-care homes .
Of the 3,298 deaths , 904 were people between the ages of 60 and 79 , and 2,394 were 80 and older .
Older people need more community support so they don ’ t have to make the ‘ really terrible choice ’ between getting things they need or staying home and avoiding outside contacts , says Laura Tamblyn Watts of CanAge .
Justin Trudeau asks Canadians to stay at home as threat looms of 60,000 new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ app has been used by just over 3,000 people in Ontario to alert contacts about a positive test

96% of the deaths…
96% were probably a month or two away from death anyways…
This is an alarming fact, right???
www.cambridgetimes.ca/news-story/10272220-people-60-and-older-make-up-96-of-covid-19-deaths-in-ontario-here-s-why-one-advocate-calls-it-ageism-in-action-/
Yet people cannot see through the bullshit being flung at them, daily, through the world…
As wave two of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, people 60 and older — a group disproportionately represented in Ontario deaths — are looking for more supports to avoid becoming infected, one advocate says.
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According to the province’s daily epidemiological report, 3,298 people 60 and older have died as of Nov. 19, accounting for 96 per cent of the province’s total deaths. Of those deaths, 2,193 were residing in long-term-care homes.
Of the 3,298 deaths, 904 were people between the ages of 60 and 79, and 2,394 were 80 and older.
Older people need more community support so they don’t have to make the ‘really terrible choice’ between getting things they need or staying home and avoiding outside contacts, says Laura Tamblyn Watts of CanAge.
Justin Trudeau asks Canadians to stay at home as threat looms of 60,000 new COVID-19 cases a day
The COVID Alert app has been used by just over 3,000 people in Ontario to alert contacts about a positive test
www.thestar.com/?redirect=true
h/t COVID19


“Confiscatory” Wealth Tax.

Argentina Approves “ Confiscatory ” Wealth Tax On Millionaires In an early glimpse of what wealth redistribution will look among @ @ @ @ @ , on Wednesday the lower house of Argentina ’ s Congress approved a bill seeking @ @ @ @ @ ( $ 3.75 billion ) through a tax on the ultra rich to finance programs @ @ @ @ @ by the COVID-19 pandemic .
Coming to your country soon .

Argentina Approves “Confiscatory” Wealth Tax On Millionaires
In an early glimpse of what wealth redistribution will look among developed nations in coming years, on Wednesday the lower house of Argentina’s Congress approved a bill seeking to raise 300 billion pesos ($3.75 billion) through a tax on the ultra rich to finance programs aimed at helping families hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/argentina-approves-confiscatory-wealth-tax-millionaires
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Coming to your country soon.
h/t Patagonians


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--The NEW Biden Ukraine Bribe Tapes! Bribing Ukraine So Trump Doesn’t Find Out About His Unlawful Deal

The NEW Biden Ukraine Bribe Tapes! Bribing Ukraine So Trump Doesn’t Find Out About His Unlawful Dealings

12 Quotes From Attorney Sidney Powell That Show Why Trump ’ s Lawyers Are Absolutely Convinced He Will Win The @

Say it ain’t so Joe t.co/4zYmyGkVA9 — 𝕭𝖗𝖆𝖉 (@brad89739161) November 21, 2020
Biden tries bribing the Ukraine so Trump and team don’t catch on…
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h/t MetaDeth


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--14 Million People Can’t Make Rent

14 Million People Can’t Make Rent

Last week ’ s jobless claims report was good , but this one from the week of November 14th wasn ’ t .
Last week ’ s reading was slightly revised higher , but it was still strong .
This week ’ s report is in tune with the thesis that the economic restrictions and individual behavior caused by the virus are hurting the labor market .
It ’ s a hard thesis to avoid as all the COVID-19 readings are worse than in the summer .
The recovery didn ’ t reverse in the summer , but that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher now .
The market is looking past the winter because the vaccines make the 2nd half of 2021 look good .
There will be 40 million doses of Moderna and Pfizer ’ s vaccines ( for 20 million people : 2 doses each ) combined by the end of the year if they are approved .
Pfizer submitted its application to the FDA for emergency use of its vaccine on Friday .
Moderna will apply in a few days .
Millions of vaccines have already been produced and are waiting for approval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stated their goal is to supply several hundred million doses in the first 4-5 months of 2021 .
The market may be looking to the spring and the summer , but in real life there will be massive economic consequences in the next few weeks .
This likely slowdown should trough as the vaccines are given out en masse sometime in late winter .
In the meantime , restrictions are coming .
On Thursday , California announced a curfew for non-essential workers .
Gatherings must shutdown from 10PM to 5AM .
That will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is strongly warning against traveling for Thanksgiving .
California ’ s curfew applies to 94 % of the state ’ s population .
This won ’ t be the only state instituting restrictive measures starting this month .
Rural areas are much less likely to issue restrictions , but they might be forced to as the virus spreads .
Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose from 711,000 to 742,000 .
That was way above the consensus of 710,000 and the highest estimate which was 725,000 .
Last week ’ s report showed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and this week ’ s report showed a 31,000 increase .
If you combine the two it ’ s like a slight decline .
Either the labor market got much worse or the seasonal adjustment was a factor .
We think it ’ s a combination of the two .
Non-seasonally adjusted claims only rose 18,344 this week to 743,460 .
That ’ s much less than the seasonally adjusted spike .
However , unadjusted claims only fell 18,788 last week .
That means the increase this week completely canceled out the decrease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 320,000 .
As per usual , this data is volatile .
Louisiana had a 30,000 increase in PUAs to 40,000 which is clearly incorrect .
PUAs and unadjusted claims combined were up 4 % after falling 8 % as the chart above shows .
We can call it a slight improvement over two weeks or an inflection point which signals a slowdown is starting .
Continued claims fell from 6.801 million to 6.372 million in the week of November 7th .
Finally , they are below the peak in the last recession which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s data .
The 429,000 decline was 7,000 more than the last report .
If that decline were to continue , this reading would be normal within a few weeks .
However , a slowdown is coming , so we won ’ t see that .
Just as this metric has gotten to where it started the last expansion at , the economy is starting to slow as economic restrictions are increasing and people are staying home more often .
Keep in mind , the normal data isn ’ t the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ add in pandemic benefits , the labor market is way worse than where it started the last expansion .
In the week of October 31st , PEUCs increased 233,458 as you can see from the chart above .
Extended benefits were up 78,441 .
The overall number of people on some benefits programs fell 841,000 .
There are now 13 million people on pandemic benefits .
Pandemic benefits expire on December 26th .
It ’ s estimated that 12 million people are at risk of losing their benefits .
The government must do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything .
Generally , when the government is forced into action , it does something such as in the spring .
Let ’ s see if the government figures something out .
On Thursday , the Senate majority leader agreed to resume negotiations with the Democrats over a new COVID-19 relief bill .
The time for action is now .
The number of people who are about to go off benefits lines up with the number of people who don ’ t think they will be able to make next month ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at first glance because most people have confidence they can make rent , but the problem is the sheer number of people who don ’ t have confidence is high nominally .
14.5 million people said they have either no confidence or slight confidence they will make next month ’ s rent .
This data is from mid to late October .
Imagine how bad it will be when benefits stop being distributed .
Plus , we might see a steady increase in initial jobless claims if the slowdown picks up momentum .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths rapidly increase like they are now and hospitals become overrun like many are , more lockdowns become more likely .
Lately we have been seeing “ lockdown light ” which is recommendations for action , but not decrees .
Legislation/orders will get stronger if the spread doesn ’ t abate .
The NYC Mayor already said it ’ s only a matter of time before the state shuts down indoor dining and gyms .
That response came after parents complained about schools being shut ; they state schools are safer than restaurants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could just be a one off weak jobless claims report , but you have to think a slowdown is coming with economic restrictions being implemented and mobility falling .
COVID-19 is raging worse than in the summer .
The most important thing for the government to do is to extend the pandemic benefits through when the vaccines are fully distributed this spring .
Over 14 million people might not be able to pay their rent .
The economy will have a rough winter before improving markedly in the 2nd half .

by UPFINA
Last week’s jobless claims report was good, but this one from the week of November 14th wasn’t. Last week’s reading was slightly revised higher, but it was still strong. This week’s report is in tune with the thesis that the economic restrictions and individual behavior caused by the virus are hurting the labor market. It’s a hard thesis to avoid as all the COVID-19 readings are worse than in the summer. The recovery didn’t reverse in the summer, but that’s irrelevant when hospitalizations and deaths are higher now.
Market Focuses on Vaccines
The market is looking past the winter because the vaccines make the 2nd half of 2021 look good. There will be 40 million doses of Moderna and Pfizer’s vaccines (for 20 million people: 2 doses each) combined by the end of the year if they are approved. Pfizer submitted its application to the FDA for emergency use of its vaccine on Friday. Moderna will apply in a few days. Millions of vaccines have already been produced and are waiting for approval and distribution. BioNTech’s CEO stated their goal is to supply several hundred million doses in the first 4-5 months of 2021.
The market may be looking to the spring and the summer, but in real life there will be massive economic consequences in the next few weeks. This likely slowdown should trough as the vaccines are given out en masse sometime in late winter. In the meantime, restrictions are coming. On Thursday, California announced a curfew for non-essential workers. Gatherings must shutdown from 10PM to 5AM. That will cut Thanksgiving gatherings short. The CDC is strongly warning against traveling for Thanksgiving. California’s curfew applies to 94% of the state’s population. This won’t be the only state instituting restrictive measures starting this month. Rural areas are much less likely to issue restrictions, but they might be forced to as the virus spreads.
Details Of Initial Claims
Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose from 711,000 to 742,000. That was way above the consensus of 710,000 and the highest estimate which was 725,000. Last week’s report showed a 46,000 decline (revised 2,000 higher) and this week’s report showed a 31,000 increase. If you combine the two it’s like a slight decline. Either the labor market got much worse or the seasonal adjustment was a factor. We think it’s a combination of the two.
Initial #unemployment claims:
+31k to 742k (SA) in w-e Nov14
+18k to 743k (NSA) > PUA claims (NSA): 320k (+24k) > Still very high 1.1 million new jobless benefits claimants! > With fiscal relief package hopes dimming & fiscal cliff nearing, situation is worrisome pic.twitter.com/g2DaRZL2G1 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) November 19, 2020
Non-seasonally adjusted claims only rose 18,344 this week to 743,460. That’s much less than the seasonally adjusted spike. However, unadjusted claims only fell 18,788 last week. That means the increase this week completely canceled out the decrease last week. PUAs rose 24,000 to 320,000. As per usual, this data is volatile. Louisiana had a 30,000 increase in PUAs to 40,000 which is clearly incorrect. PUAs and unadjusted claims combined were up 4% after falling 8% as the chart above shows. We can call it a slight improvement over two weeks or an inflection point which signals a slowdown is starting.
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Continued Claims Fall Again
Continued claims fell from 6.801 million to 6.372 million in the week of November 7th. Finally, they are below the peak in the last recession which was the previous record high before this year’s data. The 429,000 decline was 7,000 more than the last report. If that decline were to continue, this reading would be normal within a few weeks. However, a slowdown is coming, so we won’t see that. Just as this metric has gotten to where it started the last expansion at, the economy is starting to slow as economic restrictions are increasing and people are staying home more often.
🚨Chart that should keep Congress up at night… "Looming expiry of #unemployment benefits" 👍> Regular benefits claimants: down from peak of 22 million to 6 million 👎> PUA and PEUC claimants: up from zero to 13 million, but they expire at the end of the year! pic.twitter.com/SgEnrbeQsy — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) November 19, 2020
Keep in mind, the normal data isn’t the only labor market measurement. When you add in pandemic benefits, the labor market is way worse than where it started the last expansion. In the week of October 31st, PEUCs increased 233,458 as you can see from the chart above. Extended benefits were up 78,441. The overall number of people on some benefits programs fell 841,000. There are now 13 million people on pandemic benefits.
Pandemic benefits expire on December 26th. It’s estimated that 12 million people are at risk of losing their benefits. The government must do something to prevent these people from losing everything. Generally, when the government is forced into action, it does something such as in the spring. Let’s see if the government figures something out. On Thursday, the Senate majority leader agreed to resume negotiations with the Democrats over a new COVID-19 relief bill. The time for action is now.
Can’t Afford Rent
The number of people who are about to go off benefits lines up with the number of people who don’t think they will be able to make next month’s rent. The chart below looks fine at first glance because most people have confidence they can make rent, but the problem is the sheer number of people who don’t have confidence is high nominally. 14.5 million people said they have either no confidence or slight confidence they will make next month’s rent.
Tight on cash… > 14 million Americans have little to no confidence they'll be able to pay rent next month via @uscensusbureau @bpolitics @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/FIY6Il9B02 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) November 20, 2020
This data is from mid to late October. Imagine how bad it will be when benefits stop being distributed. Plus, we might see a steady increase in initial jobless claims if the slowdown picks up momentum. Lockdowns guarantee an economic slowdown. When deaths rapidly increase like they are now and hospitals become overrun like many are, more lockdowns become more likely. Lately we have been seeing “lockdown light” which is recommendations for action, but not decrees. Legislation/orders will get stronger if the spread doesn’t abate. The NYC Mayor already said it’s only a matter of time before the state shuts down indoor dining and gyms. That response came after parents complained about schools being shut; they state schools are safer than restaurants, bars, and gyms.
Conclusion
This could just be a one off weak jobless claims report, but you have to think a slowdown is coming with economic restrictions being implemented and mobility falling. COVID-19 is raging worse than in the summer. The most important thing for the government to do is to extend the pandemic benefits through when the vaccines are fully distributed this spring. Over 14 million people might not be able to pay their rent. The economy will have a rough winter before improving markedly in the 2nd half.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--US permanent job losers, although not as high as the peak of the GFS *yet*, that trajectory is a bit

US permanent job losers , although not as high as the peak of the GFS *yet* , that trajectory is @ @ @ @

US permanent job losers, although not as high as the peak of the GFS *yet*, that trajectory is a bit alarming pic.twitter.com/viCPBmyJ07
— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 (@chigrl) November 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--Hotels & Resorts stocks are overpriced and the market hasn’t realized it yet

In fact , most of the boomer stocks are overpriced right now due to the recent PFE and MRNA ’ s vaccine news , but hotels & resorts stocks ( $ MGM , $ MAR , $ HLT ) are the most inflated out of them all and will soon be given a reality check .
This is just my speculation but I believe the public is overly optimistic about vaccines and how the subsequent distribution and logistics will pan out .
I ’ ll keep my DD short and sweet .
The Race between the 4 Biotechs : • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of 2020 • Must be kept at -70 degrees Celsius ( -94 degrees Fahrenheit ) • Submitted to FDA for Emergency Use Approval ( optimistic timeline for approval = end of 2020 ) • People with special licenses can administer the vaccine shots • 20 mill doses to be produced by the end of 2020 • Must be kept at -20 degrees Celsius ( -4 degrees Fahrenheit ) • Hasn ’ t been submitted to FDA for EUA yet , but getting documentation prepared • People with special licenses can administer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data by the end of 2020 MGM is inflated compared to the other boomer stocks as it ’ s very much near pre-covid levels .
A sub-premise of this post is that whatever brought MGM ’ s stock price to what it is today was artificial and it isn ’ t reflective of a healthy incline .
The volume popped off per vaccine news , but now the volume has significantly dropped at the current levels .
Buyer power is at its tipping point and a single bad news can easily trigger a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now all been priced-in .
But what will trigger the sell-off ?
• The relief bill ’ s benefits is all set to end on Dec 31 ( this includes government bailouts ) .
We were expected to make stimulus negotiations post-election , but both sides aren ’ t looking to work with one another .
Other analysts predict that productive negotiations will only resume once Biden is in office which is in January .
• Rising COVID cases .
US COVID cases hasn ’ t yet peaked as we continue to set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Thanksgiving is cancelled , but maybe even Christmas and New Years celebrations , too .
Hotels & Resorts are one of the greatest attractions during Christmas , but it seems like we ’ re going to stay in lockdown .
• Vaccine Distribution & Logistics issue .
As mentioned , countries and states will continue to face big challenges in vaccine delivery .
One logistic issue in the headlines can induce great amounts of fear triggering sell-offs .
Conclusion : In the short to medium term , there are no news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that points bullish .
The buyer power has peaked and now , they are headed for a big correction .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by water_boat
In fact, most of the boomer stocks are overpriced right now due to the recent PFE and MRNA’s vaccine news, but hotels & resorts stocks ($MGM, $MAR, $HLT) are the most inflated out of them all and will soon be given a reality check.
This is just my speculation but I believe the public is overly optimistic about vaccines and how the subsequent distribution and logistics will pan out. I’ll keep my DD short and sweet.
The Race between the 4 Biotechs:
Pfizer (PFE):
95% efficacy
2 dose
50 mill doses to be produced by the end of 2020
Must be kept at -70 degrees Celsius (-94 degrees Fahrenheit)
Submitted to FDA for Emergency Use Approval (optimistic timeline for approval = end of 2020)
People with special licenses can administer the vaccine shots
Moderna (MRNA):
94% efficacy
1 dose
20 mill doses to be produced by the end of 2020
Must be kept at -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit)
Hasn’t been submitted to FDA for EUA yet, but getting documentation prepared
People with special licenses can administer the vaccine shots
AstraZenenca (AZN):
Currently in Phase 3
Expected to release data by the end of 2020
Johnson&Johnson (JNJ):
Currently in Phase 3
Expected to release data in February 2021
Relative Pricing and Comparison
MGM Resort International (MGM):
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-14% pps of pre-covid levels
Occupancy rate 44%
Revenue: -68% vs last LYQ3
Negative EPS
25% employees terminated
Other Industry Leading Boomer Stocks
CCL (cruise) = -57% pps of pre-covid levels
AAL (airlines) = -54% pps of pre-covid levels
SPG (mall) = -42% pps of pre-covid levels
JWN (retail) = -48% pps of pre-covid levels
LVS (casino) = -18% pps of pre-covid levels
MGM is inflated compared to the other boomer stocks as it’s very much near pre-covid levels.
Macro factors
A sub-premise of this post is that whatever brought MGM’s stock price to what it is today was artificial and it isn’t reflective of a healthy incline. The volume popped off per vaccine news, but now the volume has significantly dropped at the current levels. Buyer power is at its tipping point and a single bad news can easily trigger a large sell-off as the good news have now all been priced-in. But what will trigger the sell-off?
The Sell-off Triggers
The relief bill’s benefits is all set to end on Dec 31 (this includes government bailouts). We were expected to make stimulus negotiations post-election, but both sides aren’t looking to work with one another. Other analysts predict that productive negotiations will only resume once Biden is in office which is in January.
We were expected to make stimulus negotiations post-election, but both sides aren’t looking to work with one another. Other analysts predict that productive negotiations will only resume once Biden is in office which is in January. Rising COVID cases. US COVID cases hasn’t yet peaked as we continue to set new hospitalization and case records every day.
US COVID cases hasn’t yet peaked as we continue to set new hospitalization and case records every day. Thanksgiving is cancelled, but maybe even Christmas and New Years celebrations, too. Hotels&Resorts are one of the greatest attractions during Christmas, but it seems like we’re going to stay in lockdown.
Hotels&Resorts are one of the greatest attractions during Christmas, but it seems like we’re going to stay in lockdown. Vaccine Distribution&Logistics issue. As mentioned, countries and states will continue to face big challenges in vaccine delivery. One logistic issue in the headlines can induce great amounts of fear triggering sell-offs.
Conclusion: In the short to medium term, there are no news that awaits for hotel&resort stocks that points bullish. The buyer power has peaked and now, they are headed for a big correction.
Position: $MGM 26.5p 12/31
Proof:
$MGM 26.5p 12/31
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--IBM (NYSE: IBM) – An In-depth Stock Analysis

Good evening everyone .
This post will be an in-depth look at IBM , and is likely going to end up being a bit lengthy .
The stock is in a bit of a weird position , there is no doubt there will be people on both sides of the fence when looking at this stock .
First we will take a look at the business for those unfamiliar , then the financials , and lastly their potential road ahead .
There will be a few questions we are looking to answer : • Is the company really leveraged ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ mdel is to be a part of everything IT ’ s enterprise needs .
The company primarily sells : IBM operates in 175 countries and has over 80,000 business partners to service 5,200 clients – which includes 95 % of all Fortune 500 .
IBM ’ s outward impact is substantial .
For example , IBM manages 90 % of all credit card transactions globally and is responsible for 50 % of all wireless connections in the world .
– The company has been able to use its large free cash flow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ R & D and acquisitions ) as well as buy back significant amounts of its own stock .
Additionally the cash flow is allow the company to transition its larger customer base from old lower margin businesses to new higher margin , higher growth products and services .
– The company consistently tops the annual list of U.S. patent beneficiaries .
– The acquisition of Red Hat is transforming the company toward new Cloud technology .
– IBM ’ s old mainframe business is in a long term decline .
As we will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last 10 years the company ’ s Revenue growth is negative , Cash Flow from Operations ( CFO ) is barely positive .
– While the stock share buybacks were listed as a positive , they are also a negative .
IBM ’ s Earnings Per Share ( EPS ) is only positive because they bought back so many shares .
– And most importantly , data and analytics businesses face fierce competition from corporations such as Amazon , Microsoft , and others .
There is going to be a lot to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the general trend here .
The revenue has decreased approx 4 % each year over the last decade , earnings has also decreased down to $ 16 Billion while their debt has ballooned to over $ 66.8 Billion setting the current debt/earnings ratio to 4x…big ouch .
Looking back at the first chart there are two things that need to be pointed out .
Firstly , the decline in revenue and EBITDA has been leveling out , from 2017-2019 we can see there hasn ’ t been as much of a decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2019 is attributed to IMB acquiring Red Hat .
So let ’ s answer some of the questions .
• Is there revenue growth ?
– No • Is there earnings growth ?
– No • Is the company really leveraged ?
( Low/High debt ) – Lots of Debt This is where things are going to get interesting .
and less gloomy .
( But it is still gloomy ) What is really interesting , and a little weird here is they are generating ~ $ 15 Billion in cash flow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Billion back into the company , leaving around $ 12 Billion of free cash flow .
When we look at their Free Cash to Equity we can see this has sharply rose , despite declining revenue and earnings .
At the current stock levels the free cash flow yield over the last decade has been ~11 % .
So if they can continue to stop their decline , or even turn around at this point there could be strong profit potential .
Let ’ s quickly look into where the money is coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 of their revenue sectors , we can see their Cloud & Business services growing at ~8.4 % combined , and their Tech dropping by 3.7 % from 2018 to 2019 .
This is potentially promising and their new CFO and CEO are investing heavily into this Cloud services .
From their prospectus they are projecting potential 60 % growth revenue models .
This also does not take into account the potential from their Red Hat acquisition .
So what ’ s the big if ?
The big “ IF ” is whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around from where it is currently at or if it will just continue to decline .
The earnings/revenue/debt numbers look terrifying right now , but strong cash flow is what allows companies to survive into the future .
If IBM can increase their revenue and earnings , pay down debt , and maintain or increase their current cash flow there is a potential for a strong return .
NOTE : Current for November 2020 and very likely to change .
As it stands right now , the company is remaining committed to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash flow to support it , however the payout ratio is already 72 % .
To maintain this their revenue will need to increase in the coming years .
IBM has been beaten down and currently sits in an interesting position .
It is a global behemoth of a company with a wide moat , it is very intertwined in many different services , yet , over the last decade , it has languished financially under their previously poor leadership .
Picking this up , maintaining your current position , or staying far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They have been declining , but the decline has slowed .
Their growth in the Cloud sector is becoming more profitable , but it has many competitors there .
There was a change in upper leadership .
They have high levels or debt , but high levels of cash flow .
So much is going on .
( They are also involved in crypto – Stellar Lumens for those interested in that , won ’ t be talking about it in detail here ) Ultimately , you need to ask yourself , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I hope everyone found this post interesting , please supplement this with your own research .
What is everyone ’ s opinion about the company ?
As always , thanks for reading , and have a good day/night !
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by 036Gooddaysir036
Introduction:
Good evening everyone. This post will be an in-depth look at IBM, and is likely going to end up being a bit lengthy. The stock is in a bit of a weird position, there is no doubt there will be people on both sides of the fence when looking at this stock. First we will take a look at the business for those unfamiliar, then the financials, and lastly their potential road ahead.
There will be a few questions we are looking to answer:
Is there revenue growth? Is there earnings growth? Is the company really leveraged? (Low/High debt) Is there strong cash flow?
IBM – International Business Machines:
International Business Machines’ mdel is to be a part of everything IT’s enterprise needs. The company primarily sells:
Infrastructure services (37% of revenue),
Software (29% of revenue),
IT services (23% of revenue),
Hardware (8% of revenues).
IBM operates in 175 countries and has over 80,000 business partners to service 5,200 clients – which includes 95% of all Fortune 500. IBM’s outward impact is substantial. For example, IBM manages 90% of all credit card transactions globally and is responsible for 50% of all wireless connections in the world.
Strengths:
– The company has been able to use its large free cash flow to invest heavily in the future (R&D and acquisitions) as well as buy back significant amounts of its own stock. Additionally the cash flow is allow the company to transition its larger customer base from old lower margin businesses to new higher margin, higher growth products and services. – The company consistently tops the annual list of U.S. patent beneficiaries. – The acquisition of Red Hat is transforming the company toward new Cloud technology.
Risks:
– IBM’s old mainframe business is in a long term decline. As we will see in the next section, over the last 10 years the company’s Revenue growth is negative, Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) is barely positive. – While the stock share buybacks were listed as a positive, they are also a negative. IBM’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) is only positive because they bought back so many shares. – And most importantly, data and analytics businesses face fierce competition from corporations such as Amazon, Microsoft, and others.
Financial History:
There is going to be a lot to unpack here, let’s look at the general trend here.
Year Revenue EBITDA Debt Debt / Earning 2011 106,916 26,361 27,163 1.0 2013 98,368 27,478 29,680 1.4 2015 81,741 20,372 38,702 1.9 2016 79,919 18,551 40,902 2.2 2017 79,139 16,223 45,086 2.8 2018 79,591 16,711 42,656 2.6 2019 77,147 16,844 66,883 4.0
The revenue has decreased approx 4% each year over the last decade, earnings has also decreased down to $16 Billion while their debt has ballooned to over $66.8 Billion setting the current debt/earnings ratio to 4x…big ouch.
Looking back at the first chart there are two things that need to be pointed out. Firstly, the decline in revenue and EBITDA has been leveling out, from 2017-2019 we can see there hasn’t been as much of a decline. Secondly, the ballooning in debt in 2019 is attributed to IMB acquiring Red Hat.
So let’s answer some of the questions.
Is there revenue growth? – No Is there earnings growth? – No Is the company really leveraged? (Low/High debt) – Lots of Debt Is there strong cash flow? Hmmm.
This is where things are going to get interesting. and less gloomy. (But it is still gloomy)

Year Cash Flow from Operations Capital Expenditures FCF/E Ratio 2011 19,846 4,108 16,787 2015 17,225 3,579 13,594 2019 14,770 2,286 31,365
What is really interesting, and a little weird here is they are generating ~$15 Billion in cash flow, and only putting ~$2.3 Billion back into the company, leaving around $12 Billion of free cash flow. When we look at their Free Cash to Equity we can see this has sharply rose, despite declining revenue and earnings.
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At the current stock levels the free cash flow yield over the last decade has been ~11%. So if they can continue to stop their decline, or even turn around at this point there could be strong profit potential.
Let’s quickly look into where the money is coming from.
Revenue:
Revenue Sector 2018 2019 Year-Year Change Cloud & Cognitive Software 22,209 23,200 +6% Global Business Services 16,595 16,634 +2.4% Global Tech Services 29,146 27,361 -3.7%
Looking at only the top 3 of their revenue sectors, we can see their Cloud & Business services growing at ~8.4% combined, and their Tech dropping by 3.7% from 2018 to 2019. This is potentially promising and their new CFO and CEO are investing heavily into this Cloud services. From their prospectus they are projecting potential 60% growth revenue models.
This also does not take into account the potential from their Red Hat acquisition.
So what’s the big if?
The big “IF” is whether or not they can turn the business around from where it is currently at or if it will just continue to decline. The earnings/revenue/debt numbers look terrifying right now, but strong cash flow is what allows companies to survive into the future. If IBM can increase their revenue and earnings, pay down debt, and maintain or increase their current cash flow there is a potential for a strong return.
Some other numbers:
NOTE: Current for November 2020 and very likely to change.
Current Annual Payout / Share $6.52 Yield 5.84% 10 Yr Div Growth Rate 11.6 3 Yr Div Growth Rate 5.3 1 Yr Div Growth Rate 3.5 Current EPS Payout Ratio 72.77% Years on Consecutive Div Increase 25 Years
As it stands right now, the company is remaining committed to the dividend payouts. They currently have the cash flow to support it, however the payout ratio is already 72%. To maintain this their revenue will need to increase in the coming years.
Final Thoughts:
IBM has been beaten down and currently sits in an interesting position. It is a global behemoth of a company with a wide moat, it is very intertwined in many different services, yet, over the last decade, it has languished financially under their previously poor leadership.
Picking this up, maintaining your current position, or staying far away depends on your personal risk tolerance. They have been declining, but the decline has slowed. Their growth in the Cloud sector is becoming more profitable, but it has many competitors there. There was a change in upper leadership. They have high levels or debt, but high levels of cash flow. So much is going on. (They are also involved in crypto – Stellar Lumens for those interested in that, won’t be talking about it in detail here)
Ultimately, you need to ask yourself, do you believe in this company?
I hope everyone found this post interesting, please supplement this with your own research. What is everyone’s opinion about the company?
As always, thanks for reading, and have a good day/night!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--We are heading down, folks! Real world economy is still in shambles. Market is more overvalued than

We are heading down, folks! Real world economy is still in shambles. Market is more overvalued than it was during the DotCom boom. Still millions unemployed. The market is topping off and rejecting highs again and again….

The market is going to tank .
Let me just give a bit of background so you know why my opinion is better than yours… I am not a bear .
I am not a bull .
I go where the market tells me to go , I bet where it tells me to bet .
And right now , the indicators are telling me to take a strong bearish position .
So that ’ s what I have been doing .
I ’ ve been trading more than 20 years .
I was trading the great financial crash while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever .
This is not my primary job , but I make a good deal of cash on the side every month , timing the market and swing trading broad market ETFs .
I do my research , I know my shit , and I rarely touch your shitty meme stocks .
I ’ m doing you all a favor of once again sharing my insights into this market , so you too can share in my profits and maybe learn a thing or two .
I will lay this out as cleanly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for my bearish bet and explaining them in detail .
I ’ ve covered some of this in the past , but wanted to consolidate everything and more in one place .
This post will be long .
If you want to cry about that rather than thank me for my service , you will go broke soon and deserve it cuz you are lazy .
PRESSING FORWARD !
Premise 2 : SPY is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes ( TA ) Premise 3 : The Fed CAN NOT Print Money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks ( Data ) There are plenty of small , detail arguments for a bearish position .
Covid cases rising , election uncertainty , stimulus failing , and so on .
Plenty of others have made this case , so I won ’ t focus on the small scale issues such as these .
What I want to give you is a larger , macro picture .
Because the market is simply overvalued , period .
The market has become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand tech , and why they have a bullish case for growth in the face of Covid lockdowns… My point here is that you need some REAL WORLD measures to tie “ future earnings ” down to reality , to prevent irrational euphoria from taking over your mind .
There are plenty of indicators out there showing that stocks are overvalued .
We could talk about insane P/E ratios , about euphoric meme stock flops like NKLA , and so on .
The metric I ’ m going to present here is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t unique or original .
But it is undeniably useful , and carries strong weight , whether modern traders wish to shun it and its originator or not .
I ’ m talking about the Buffet Indicator .
For those of you new to this concept , it is simply the total stock market valuation divided by GDP .
The point is to compare total market valuations with some hard , trailing , real-world metric , in this case GDP .
When market valuations uncouple strongly from actual market conditions , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ valuations .
And that presents opportunity for those paying attention .
Note that this chart has already been detrended down to account for historically rising P/E ratios , and it still shows a strongly overvalued market , equal to what was seen during the DotCom bubble .
That ’ s bad news , folks .
This is the REAL issue in the present market , and why buyers are becoming exhausted .
Covid , instability , elections , stimulus… These are all just catalysts to give that equity bubble a little prick .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ still “ buying the dip ” under current market conditions , which means mostly clueless retail gamblers on WSB .
All these perma-bulls are doing is offering liquidity to the institutional investors to help get them out of their positions .
In the end , we all know who is left holding the bag .
Premise 2 : The Market is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes I ’ m not a big believer in technical analysis .
Most of it is bullshit , astrological voodoo if you ask me .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technical analysis works , it is simply being used as a proxy for assessing market sentiment and emotions .
Let ’ s take a closer look at the teaser SPY chart I posted above .
As you can see , the market has been repeatedly rejecting multiple new highs .
This process was briefly interrupted by positive vaccine news .
We breached a new high on Pfizer vaccine results , but even that new high was instantly rejected and resulted in a sudden reversal selloff .
The Moderna vaccine news created another short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that too was followed by a selloff .
In other words , the market is continually rejecting current market valuations .
As they should be , if you were following the point above .
We are running on vaccine news fumes , and those will not last long .
If you develop an instinct for these things , you can almost feel it in your gut : The market WANTS to head down .
If this isn ’ t the top , it is close to it .
$ 366.77 will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the year , and will soon unwind downwards .
I know this will come as a shock to most of you idiots but the money printer does NOT GO BRRRRR .
The Fed has to follow the laws that govern it ’ s actions .
The Fed does not have the legal authority to simply print cash and hand it out .
Go ahead and read the Federal Reserve Act , and take a look at the Fed ’ s actions , for proof of this .
It doesn ’ t even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy corporate bonds or anything else .
What the Fed “ prints ” is called “ reserves.
” So what , you say ?
So everything .
The key point about reserves is that they can not be spent like cash can .
When a bank gets reserve funds in its reserve account at the Fed , it CAN NOT SPEND that money .
All the bank can do is use that account as collateral to lend against .
Which means if the banks are not lending , those QE funds are NOT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well not exist .
And banks are not lending , as we will see below .
This is the counter argument to all the ignorant retail traders who will argue that the Fed is “ backstopping ” stocks , or that the Fed will not “ allow ” the market to crash .
The Fed has no power to print money , and therefore no power to buy stocks , and therefore no power to prevent a crash .
The Fed ’ s power is illusory , but enough people buy the illusion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t last forever .
Just think about it .
If Fed actions and QE really made stocks rally the way people claim it does , why isn ’ t the Japan Nikkei constantly breaking new all time highs ?
?
?
Quantitative Easing is not Cash .
In fact , QE is deflationary .
Here is how QE works , in a nutshell .
The Fed buys bonds from the big banks .
Except the Fed isn ’ t buying them with cash .
In exchange for the bonds , the Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the bank .
These reserve funds CAN NOT BE TOUCHED by the banks .
All the banks can do is use this account as collateral to lend against .
In fact , it ’ s worse than that .
Because the Fed is removing assets from the open market , and not paying cash for them .
It is purchasing liquid assets with illiquid reserves .
Despite all the Fed ’ s talk about “ creating liquidity , ” what the Fed is actually doing is REMOVING liquidity from the system !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : To lower interest rates .
Don ’ t take my word for it , the Fed explains this itself !
See , the Fed has to follow the laws that govern its actions .
Despite what the public believes , the Fed does not have the legal authority to simply print money and hand it out .
The Fed knows that the true source of inflation in a debt-based economy is through credit expansion .
So the Fed does everything it can to reduce interest rates , both by setting reserve rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drive rates down further .
Only when credit expansion revives will we begin to see inflation and a true recovery .
The Fed knows their hands are tied , which is why they keep hammering Congress to pass more stimulus .
Perhaps the greatest strength of the Fed is in “ forward guidance.
” The Fed simply uses words to convince the public that money is being printed , that inflation is coming , so that people go out and spend and buy assets .
They are playing a trick on the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People actually believe inflation is coming , that stocks are being held up by the Fed , that money is pouring into the system .
The public is wrong on every count .
The Fed is trying to contract credit markets in order to lower interest rates in order to eventually spur lending in order to eventually create inflation .
But in the meantime , QE is deflationary .
As stated above , if reserve funds are not being lent out by the banks , they do not enter the economy , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Let ’ s take a look at the next premise , that banks are contracting the credit markets .
The question of whether banks are lending or not with their QE reserves is simply a matter of looking at the data .
Practically every data source we can point to suggests contracting credit conditions .
This means QE reserves are not entering the economy , and therefore are not producing inflation nor holding up stocks .
The SLOOS data from the Fed , Oct. 2020 : Real Estate lending is booming , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The decline near the end doesn ’ t represent growth in credit , but represents a reduction in the RATE of tightening .
Premise 6 : Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks If you are like me , you look forward to the H.8 data every Friday from the Fed ( yeah right haha ) .
A continuing trend in that data , month after month after month , is that major banks in the US have been loading up on bonds with no end in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more cash into safe assets , now up to a whopping $ 4.6 TRILLION in securities .
Meanwhile , retail traders ( that means you ) keep piling into stocks at all time highs .
A record amount of cash was dumped into the market after the vaccine news breaks .
I ’ m just gon na go ahead and call it now .
This is the top .
I bring this up just to reiterate another real-world metric that is gloomy and yet completely ignored from market valuations .
Why are stocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MILLIONS more unemployed than we did this time last year ?
Hello McFly ?
Shit ’ s f*cked up son .
Real world economy is still in shambles .
Market is more overvalued than it was during the DotCom boom .
Still millions unemployed .
The market is topping off and rejecting highs again and again .
The Fed is not printing money and not backstopping assets , despite claims to the contrary .
We are heading down , folks !
Also anything else that strikes your fancy .
IWM , GLD , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is going to rise ) .
Longer dated TLT calls will print as well due to QE reducing bond yields , eventually .
Go longer or shorted dated depending on personal risk tolerance .
Timing can be difficult .
My strategy is to periodically enter bearish positions when short-term indicators look good , and hope to eventually time the major dump .
If things begin to stabilize short-term I exit the position quickly with a small gain or , rarely , a small loss .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by StevenVanMetre
preview.redd.it/qiu0oma2j7061.png?width=1626&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aac070daa9c5595cc3e5e3dad2747297e2289c3
Introduction:
The market is going to tank. Let me just give a bit of background so you know why my opinion is better than yours…
I am not a bear. I am not a bull. I go where the market tells me to go, I bet where it tells me to bet. And right now, the indicators are telling me to take a strong bearish position. So that’s what I have been doing.
I’ve been trading more than 20 years. I was trading the great financial crash while most of you were watching Spongebob or whatever. This is not my primary job, but I make a good deal of cash on the side every month, timing the market and swing trading broad market ETFs. I do my research, I know my shit, and I rarely touch your shitty meme stocks. I’m doing you all a favor of once again sharing my insights into this market, so you too can share in my profits and maybe learn a thing or two.
I will lay this out as cleanly as I can, offering multiple premises for my bearish bet and explaining them in detail. I’ve covered some of this in the past, but wanted to consolidate everything and more in one place. This post will be long. If you want to cry about that rather than thank me for my service, you will go broke soon and deserve it cuz you are lazy. PRESSING FORWARD!

Primary Bearish Premises:
Premise 1: The Market is Massively Overvalued (Macro)
Premise 2: SPY is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes (TA)
Premise 3: The Fed CANNOT Print Money You Retards (Facts)
Premise 4: Quantitative Easing is Deflationary (Theory)
Premise 5: Credit Markets are Contracting (Data)
Premise 6: Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks (Data)
Premise 7: Unemployment is Still Sky High (Data)

Premise 1: The Market is Massively Overvalued
There are plenty of small, detail arguments for a bearish position. Covid cases rising, election uncertainty, stimulus failing, and so on. Plenty of others have made this case, so I won’t focus on the small scale issues such as these.
What I want to give you is a larger, macro picture. Because the market is simply overvalued, period. The market has become divorced from the overall economy. I understand tech, and why they have a bullish case for growth in the face of Covid lockdowns… My point here is that you need some REAL WORLD measures to tie “future earnings” down to reality, to prevent irrational euphoria from taking over your mind.
There are plenty of indicators out there showing that stocks are overvalued. We could talk about insane P/E ratios, about euphoric meme stock flops like NKLA, and so on. The metric I’m going to present here is not new by any stretch. It isn’t unique or original. But it is undeniably useful, and carries strong weight, whether modern traders wish to shun it and its originator or not. I’m talking about the Buffet Indicator.
preview.redd.it/oem2uhz714061.png?width=1008&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f7e97544eba52859b986af68b4b80556660e43
For those of you new to this concept, it is simply the total stock market valuation divided by GDP. The point is to compare total market valuations with some hard, trailing, real-world metric, in this case GDP. When market valuations uncouple strongly from actual market conditions, it is a strong signal of irrational stock valuations. And that presents opportunity for those paying attention.
Note that this chart has already been detrended down to account for historically rising P/E ratios, and it still shows a strongly overvalued market, equal to what was seen during the DotCom bubble. That’s bad news, folks.
This is the REAL issue in the present market, and why buyers are becoming exhausted. Covid, instability, elections, stimulus… These are all just catalysts to give that equity bubble a little prick. Only the dumbest of the dumb are still “buying the dip” under current market conditions, which means mostly clueless retail gamblers on WSB. All these perma-bulls are doing is offering liquidity to the institutional investors to help get them out of their positions. In the end, we all know who is left holding the bag.
Premise 2: The Market is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes
I’m not a big believer in technical analysis. Most of it is bullshit, astrological voodoo if you ask me. But some of it works, and when technical analysis works, it is simply being used as a proxy for assessing market sentiment and emotions. Let’s take a closer look at the teaser SPY chart I posted above.
preview.redd.it/h0ndq2a914061.png?width=1808&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fe30a5ad23952719c69c6634debe7fe8c0832af
As you can see, the market has been repeatedly rejecting multiple new highs. This process was briefly interrupted by positive vaccine news. We breached a new high on Pfizer vaccine results, but even that new high was instantly rejected and resulted in a sudden reversal selloff. The Moderna vaccine news created another short rally, lower than the Pfizer high, and that too was followed by a selloff. In other words, the market is continually rejecting current market valuations. As they should be, if you were following the point above. We are running on vaccine news fumes, and those will not last long. If you develop an instinct for these things, you can almost feel it in your gut: The market WANTS to head down.
If this isn’t the top, it is close to it. $366.77 will very likely be the high for SPY for the year, and will soon unwind downwards.
Premise 3: The Fed CANNOT Print Money
I know this will come as a shock to most of you idiots but the money printer does NOT GO BRRRRR.
The Fed has to follow the laws that govern it’s actions. The Fed does not have the legal authority to simply print cash and hand it out. Go ahead and read the Federal Reserve Act, and take a look at the Fed’s actions, for proof of this. It doesn’t even have the authority to print cash to buy corporate bonds or anything else.
What the Fed “prints” is called “reserves.”
Source: www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/august/open-market-operations-monetary-policy-tools-explained
So what, you say? So everything. The key point about reserves is that they cannot be spent like cash can. When a bank gets reserve funds in its reserve account at the Fed, it CANNOT SPEND that money. All the bank can do is use that account as collateral to lend against. Which means if the banks are not lending, those QE funds are NOT entering the economy. They might as well not exist. And banks are not lending, as we will see below.
This is the counter argument to all the ignorant retail traders who will argue that the Fed is “backstopping” stocks, or that the Fed will not “allow” the market to crash. The Fed has no power to print money, and therefore no power to buy stocks, and therefore no power to prevent a crash. The Fed’s power is illusory, but enough people buy the illusion to make it effective. That won’t last forever.
Just think about it. If Fed actions and QE really made stocks rally the way people claim it does, why isn’t the Japan Nikkei constantly breaking new all time highs???
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Premise 4: Quantitative Easing is Deflationary
Quantitative Easing is not Cash. In fact, QE is deflationary.
Here is how QE works, in a nutshell. The Fed buys bonds from the big banks. Except the Fed isn’t buying them with cash. In exchange for the bonds, the Fed puts funds in a reserve account held by the bank. These reserve funds CANNOT BE TOUCHED by the banks. All the banks can do is use this account as collateral to lend against.
In fact, it’s worse than that. Because the Fed is removing assets from the open market, and not paying cash for them. It is purchasing liquid assets with illiquid reserves. Despite all the Fed’s talk about “creating liquidity,” what the Fed is actually doing is REMOVING liquidity from the system!
Why would they do this? Answer: To lower interest rates. Don’t take my word for it, the Fed explains this itself!
Source: www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/august/open-market-operations-monetary-policy-tools-explained
See, the Fed has to follow the laws that govern its actions. Despite what the public believes, the Fed does not have the legal authority to simply print money and hand it out. The Fed knows that the true source of inflation in a debt-based economy is through credit expansion. So the Fed does everything it can to reduce interest rates, both by setting reserve rates near zero and by using QE to drive rates down further.
Only when credit expansion revives will we begin to see inflation and a true recovery. The Fed knows their hands are tied, which is why they keep hammering Congress to pass more stimulus.
Perhaps the greatest strength of the Fed is in “forward guidance.” The Fed simply uses words to convince the public that money is being printed, that inflation is coming, so that people go out and spend and buy assets. They are playing a trick on the public, and the trick is working. People actually believe inflation is coming, that stocks are being held up by the Fed, that money is pouring into the system. The public is wrong on every count.
The Fed is trying to contract credit markets in order to lower interest rates in order to eventually spur lending in order to eventually create inflation. But in the meantime, QE is deflationary. As stated above, if reserve funds are not being lent out by the banks, they do not enter the economy, and thus QE serves a deflationary role. Let’s take a look at the next premise, that banks are contracting the credit markets.
Premise 5: Credit Markets are Contracting
The question of whether banks are lending or not with their QE reserves is simply a matter of looking at the data. Practically every data source we can point to suggests contracting credit conditions. This means QE reserves are not entering the economy, and therefore are not producing inflation nor holding up stocks.
The SLOOS data from the Fed, Oct. 2020:
Source: www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202010-table-1.htm
Real Estate lending is booming, you say? Not so….
Banks Lending is TIGHTENING:
Source: www.federalreserve.gov/data/documents/sloos-202010-charts.pdf
Note: The decline near the end doesn’t represent growth in credit, but represents a reduction in the RATE of tightening.
Consumer Demand for Loans is SHRINKING:
Source: www.federalreserve.gov/data/documents/sloos-202010-charts.pdf
Even Credit Card debt growth is negative!
preview.redd.it/73j9n0fl14061.png?width=1585&format=png&auto=webp&s=6328ef22e4a84f0a32b419c35eeacc5238911d24
Premise 6: Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks
If you are like me, you look forward to the H.8 data every Friday from the Fed (yeah right haha). A continuing trend in that data, month after month after month, is that major banks in the US have been loading up on bonds with no end in sight. They are piling more and more cash into safe assets, now up to a whopping $4.6 TRILLION in securities.
Source: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm
Meanwhile, retail traders (that means you) keep piling into stocks at all time highs. A record amount of cash was dumped into the market after the vaccine news breaks. I’m just gonna go ahead and call it now. This is the top.
Source: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/stock-funds-get-record-44-5-billion-inflows-on-vaccine-optimism
Premise 7: Unemployment is Still Sky High
I bring this up just to reiterate another real-world metric that is gloomy and yet completely ignored from market valuations. Why are stocks breaking all-time highs when we still have MILLIONS more unemployed than we did this time last year? Hello McFly?
preview.redd.it/jda435zq14061.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=3929064c0e9d6ae120201ad4295e02cca2bdcf45
Conclusion:
Shit’s f*cked up son. Real world economy is still in shambles. Market is more overvalued than it was during the DotCom boom. Still millions unemployed. The market is topping off and rejecting highs again and again. The Fed is not printing money and not backstopping assets, despite claims to the contrary. We are heading down, folks!
Positions:
SPY 350p 12/18
VXX 22c 12/18
Also anything else that strikes your fancy. IWM, GLD, SLV puts are all fine (dollar is going to rise). Longer dated TLT calls will print as well due to QE reducing bond yields, eventually. Go longer or shorted dated depending on personal risk tolerance.
Timing can be difficult. My strategy is to periodically enter bearish positions when short-term indicators look good, and hope to eventually time the major dump. If things begin to stabilize short-term I exit the position quickly with a small gain or, rarely, a small loss.
See: www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/jkm5jq/the_bears_arent_done_folks_these_diamond_hands/
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--DANGER DAYS: CASES, HOSPITALIZATIONS BREAK RECORD

( CNN ) The number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 and the number of new US cases reported rose to @ @ @ @ @ day in a row on Friday .
More than 82,000 people were hospitalized , according @ @ @ @ @ , topping Thursday ’ s record .
More than 193,000 new cases were reported , @ @ @ @ @ data — the first time US cases have topped 190,000 in a day .
Over @ @ @ @ @ now in the “ red zone , ” Dr. Deborah Birx , a White House @ @ @ @ @ CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an exclusive interview , warning that this @ @ @ @ @ the past .
“ When you look at what ’ s happening now , the @ @ @ @ @ different , ” Birx said .
“ This is faster .
It ’ s broader @ @ @ @ @ , it could be longer.
” As of Friday , the US was averaging 74,063 @ @ @ @ @ 7 days — up 19.13 % compared to the previous week .

(CNN)The number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 and the number of new US cases reported rose to record levels for a second day in a row on Friday.
More than 82,000 people were hospitalized, according to the Covid Tracking Project, topping Thursday’s record. More than 193,000 new cases were reported, according to Johns Hopkins University data — the first time US cases have topped 190,000 in a day.
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Over half of the country is now in the “red zone,” Dr. Deborah Birx, a White House Coronavirus Task Force member told CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an exclusive interview, warning that this surge was unlike those in the past.
“When you look at what’s happening now, the rate of rise is dramatically different,” Birx said. “This is faster. It’s broader. And what worries me, it could be longer.”
As of Friday, the US was averaging 74,063 current hospitalizations over the last 7 days — up 19.13% compared to the previous week.
www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-21--Supreme Court Decision Says If Trump Proves That Even Just ONE State Fraudulent..

The election of all states is declared null and void and TRUMP WINS !
Fr @ ud Vitiates Everything – @ @ @ @ @ Precedent from SCOTUS in 1878 : if it is proven that the Hiden camp committed @ @ @ @ @ even in one state , the entire el3ti0n is vitiated , rendered null and void @ @ @ @ @ automatically takes all 50 states .
# GreatRedWave pic.twitter.com/HAHhcMsuJ4 — We Are The News ( @ @ @ @ @ , 2020

The election of all states is declared null and void and TRUMP WINS!
Fr@ud Vitiates Everything – A Path To All 50
Precedent from SCOTUS in 1878: if it is proven that the Hiden camp committed el3ti0n fr@ud, even in one state, the entire el3ti0n is vitiated, rendered null and void. No re-vote. Trump automatically takes all 50 states. #GreatRedWave pic.twitter.com/HAHhcMsuJ4
— We Are The News (@wenewsnow) November 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-22--John Williams – Gold Says Hyperinflation Straight Ahead. Hyperinflationary Great Depression Coming

Economist John Williams expects to see some very large inflation because of all the stimulus coming and predicts , “ The more left we go , the more rapid will be the demise of the dollar .
Eventually , it will be a hyperinflation in the United States .
What I am looking at here is this evolving into a hyperinflationary Great Depression .
To save yourself , you have to preserve your wealth , your dollar assets .
To do that , you have to convert your dollars into physical gold and silver , precious metals and just hold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time as opposed to paper dollars that will effectively become worthless .
You ’ ll be getting a lot of money from the government , and they will keep giving you more and more and more , but that ’ s going to be an environment of rising and rising inflation .
It ’ s not necessarily going to buy you more .
.
.
.
Hyperinflation will bring political disruption .
.
.
.
Hyperinflation is a form of default .
Gold is telling us hyperinflation is straight ahead of us.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finally gets the more than 2 % inflation it wants , the real inflation will be 12 % to 15 % .
.
.
.
Hyperinflations happen quickly .
”

Economist John Williams expects to see some very large inflation because of all the stimulus coming and predicts, “The more left we go, the more rapid will be the demise of the dollar. Eventually, it will be a hyperinflation in the United States. What I am looking at here is this evolving into a hyperinflationary Great Depression. To save yourself, you have to preserve your wealth, your dollar assets. To do that, you have to convert your dollars into physical gold and silver, precious metals and just hold them. They will retain value over time as opposed to paper dollars that will effectively become worthless. You’ll be getting a lot of money from the government, and they will keep giving you more and more and more, but that’s going to be an environment of rising and rising inflation. It’s not necessarily going to buy you more. . . . Hyperinflation will bring political disruption. . . . Hyperinflation is a form of default. Gold is telling us hyperinflation is straight ahead of us.”
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Williams says, “When the Fed finally gets the more than 2% inflation it wants, the real inflation will be 12% to 15%. . . . Hyperinflations happen quickly.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--Zuckerberg CONFRONTED Over Secret Facebook Surveillance, Censorship Tools

Tucker : Democrats are thrilled by the idea of more censorship

Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti discuss the tech hearings taking place on Capitol Hill.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--Great Reset’ in Davos at the forefront of a ‘great deception’ in the free world

Powerful individuals , groups and large global organisations are at the forefront of a plan labeled ‘ The Great Reset ’ which intends to use the fear generated by the coronavirus to reshape the world and achieve net zero emissions says Sky News host Rowan Dean .
“ The Australian taxpayer spends a fortune sending top politicians and public servants year in year out in luxury style to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos to help map out global economic structures ” .
However , Mr Dean pointed out behind its lavish exterior the World Economic Forum is working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high-profile globalist organisations to introduce online activist movements and compliant local and national governments through a vast network of connected corporations .
“ It is a global commitment they have made to use the panic and fear generated by the corona virus as a means to reshape all our economies and laws and move to a new form of capitalism that focusses on net zero emissions ” .
“ To use all the tools of COVID to tackle climate change ” .
Mr Dean said “ if implemented successfully , The Great Reset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibly dire repercussions ” .
“ ‘ You ’ ll own nothing , and you ’ ll be happy ’ is just one of their marketing slogans , ” he said .
“ The plan involves replacing shareholders of big companies with stakeholders , who happen to be left-wing bureaucrats and climate change zealots .
Replacing Mum and Dad small businesses and private enterprises with big tech and big business ” .

Powerful individuals, groups and large global organisations are at the forefront of a plan labeled ‘The Great Reset’ which intends to use the fear generated by the coronavirus to reshape the world and achieve net zero emissions says Sky News host Rowan Dean.
“The Australian taxpayer spends a fortune sending top politicians and public servants year in year out in luxury style to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos to help map out global economic structures”.
However, Mr Dean pointed out behind its lavish exterior the World Economic Forum is working with the UN, IMF and other high-profile globalist organisations to introduce online activist movements and compliant local and national governments through a vast network of connected corporations.
“It is a global commitment they have made to use the panic and fear generated by the corona virus as a means to reshape all our economies and laws and move to a new form of capitalism that focusses on net zero emissions”.
“To use all the tools of COVID to tackle climate change”.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Mr Dean said “if implemented successfully, The Great Reset will undeniably and deliberately have extreme and possibly dire repercussions”.
“‘You’ll own nothing, and you’ll be happy’ is just one of their marketing slogans,” he said.
“The plan involves replacing shareholders of big companies with stakeholders, who happen to be left-wing bureaucrats and climate change zealots. Replacing Mum and Dad small businesses and private enterprises with big tech and big business”.
“Remember, it’s not only a great reset, it’s a great deception.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--Fauci says, first ones who’ll get the vaccines are policemen, firefighters, nurses, first responders

Fauci says, first ones who’ll get the vaccines are policemen, firefighters, nurses, first responders, the elderly and other risk groups

How many of you public sector , government workers will be taking the jab ?
I assume if you won ’ t take it , you ’ ll lose your job and even your license as you ’ ll be spreading the virus per their logic sth Officials expect 20 million Americans to be vaccinated for COVID-19 by December Who is first in line for COVID vaccine ?
New document provides some answers COVID-19 vaccines , while highly anticipated , are also the subject of much concern .
Doling out hundreds of thousands of vaccines , many of which require @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , begs the question : How , exactly , are can this be pulled off ?
A COVID-19 vaccination plan released this week by the state offers a window into what this process might look like in New Hampshire .
Who gets vaccinated first ?
COVID-19 vaccines will likely be limited at least within the first couple of months , which means the state will have to decide who gets first dibs on the limited supply .
The state has adopted a four-phase process for distributing the vaccine .
Within each phase , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process in areas with the highest COVID-19 case counts to help contain the spread of the virus .
In phase one , vaccines will go to first responders , including firefighters , police officers and EMS workers , high-risk health workers , and adults living in nursing homes and assisted living facilities .
Next , adults living in overcrowded settings and those who have conditions that put them at “ significantly higher risk ” for developing a severe case of COVID-19 will have access to the vaccine .
In phase three , children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other essential industries will get access to the vaccine .
Vaccines become available to everyone else during phase four .
Officials expect 20 million Americans to be vaccinated for COVID-19 by December Here ’ s when Dr. Fauci thinks average Americans will be able to get a COVID-19 vaccine We now have a rough estimate of when average Americans can expect to start receiving the coronavirus vaccine , assuming all goes well with the rollout .
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci thinks ordinary Americans can expect to receive the coronavirus vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people take the vaccine , Dr. Fauci also thinks that life could start returning to normal by the end of 2021 .
If all goes as planned with the rollout of the first coronavirus vaccines in the US from companies like Pfizer and Moderna , the first Americans will start to be inoculated about a month from now .
That ’ s a group of people that will include health care workers , who obviously need the protection of a vaccine before almost anyone else as a result of putting their lives on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the virus .
With COVID-19 cases surging across the US right now , though — Johns Hopkins University says we ’ re now up to almost 11.6 million since the start of the pandemic — that brings up an obvious question : What about the timing for everyone else ?
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has an answer .
And it represents even more great news in what ’ s proven to be a lightning-fast , record-breaking achievement for scientific progress — bringing a successful vaccine to fruition in less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that was only first discovered months ago .
Fauci says the average American could get vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as April : ‘ I would take the vaccine ’ Dr. Anthony Fauci , the nation ’ s leading infectious disease expert who has guided the U.S. through the pandemic , projected Americans could expect their first doses of an approved coronavirus vaccine as early as April .
Front-line health care workers are expected to get their first doses by the end of December or early January .
After prioritizing people at risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthy general population can expect first doses of a vaccine starting in April and through July if all continues on track , Fauci told the USA TODAY Editorial Board on Wednesday .
TUESDAY , Sept. 15 , 2020 ( Healthday News ) — In a sign that Americans are becoming more wary about the safety of a new coronavirus vaccine , a new poll shows a majority of adults don ’ t trust what President Donald Trump has said on vaccine development .
More than half ( 52 % ) of adults said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s vaccine comments , the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll found , while just 26 % say they do .
Twenty percent said they were “ not aware ” whether they trust what the president has said about a vaccine , NBC News reported .
Those polled were also more skeptical about whether they or their families would get a government-approved coronavirus vaccine if one became widely available , NBC News reported .
The poll ’ s latest data show that just 39 % said they would get it , 23 % said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say they weren ’ t sure .
Just a month ago , 44 % of Americans said they would get a government-approved vaccine , 22 % said they wouldn ’ t , and 32 % said they weren ’ t sure .
The highest level of confidence in a coronavirus vaccine came during the week of Aug. 17 to Aug. 23 , when 45 % polled said they would get a vaccine .
Dr. Moncef Slaoui , chief of the Trump administration ’ s Operation Warp Speed ’ s vaccine efforts , said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could get vaccinated for COVID-19 next month also said that 80 % of Americans should be vaccinated in order for the program , plan to be successful .
Slaoui said the administration ’ s goal is to distribute an approved vaccine within 24 hours of its approval by the Food and Drug Administration .
A committee is expected to meet in December to approve Pfizer ’ s emergency authorization request for its vaccine candidate , found to be 95 % effective in preventing the coronavirus .

How many of you public sector, government workers will be taking the jab? I assume if you won’t take it, you’ll lose your job and even your license as you’ll be spreading the virus per their logic sth
Officials expect 20 million Americans to be vaccinated for COVID-19 by December
Who is first in line for COVID vaccine? New document provides some answers
COVID-19 vaccines, while highly anticipated, are also the subject of much concern.
Doling out hundreds of thousands of vaccines, many of which require multiple doses and some level of refrigeration, begs the question: How, exactly, are can this be pulled off?
A COVID-19 vaccination plan released this week by the state offers a window into what this process might look like in New Hampshire.
Who gets vaccinated first?
COVID-19 vaccines will likely be limited at least within the first couple of months, which means the state will have to decide who gets first dibs on the limited supply.
The state has adopted a four-phase process for distributing the vaccine. Within each phase, the state plans are starting the allocation process in areas with the highest COVID-19 case counts to help contain the spread of the virus.
In phase one, vaccines will go to first responders, including firefighters, police officers and EMS workers, high-risk health workers, and adults living in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Next, adults living in overcrowded settings and those who have conditions that put them at “significantly higher risk” for developing a severe case of COVID-19 will have access to the vaccine.
In phase three, children, young adults, and workers in other essential industries will get access to the vaccine. Vaccines become available to everyone else during phase four.
www.concordmonitor.com/COVID-19-vaccine-distribution-37095092
Officials expect 20 million Americans to be vaccinated for COVID-19 by December
abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/officials-expect-20-million-americans-vaccinated-covid-19-74344878
Here’s when Dr. Fauci thinks average Americans will be able to get a COVID-19 vaccine
We now have a rough estimate of when average Americans can expect to start receiving the coronavirus vaccine, assuming all goes well with the rollout.
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci thinks ordinary Americans can expect to receive the coronavirus vaccine as soon as April.
If most people take the vaccine, Dr. Fauci also thinks that life could start returning to normal by the end of 2021.
If all goes as planned with the rollout of the first coronavirus vaccines in the US from companies like Pfizer and Moderna, the first Americans will start to be inoculated about a month from now. That’s a group of people that will include health care workers, who obviously need the protection of a vaccine before almost anyone else as a result of putting their lives on the line to care for people sickened by the virus. With COVID-19 cases surging across the US right now, though — Johns Hopkins University says we’re now up to almost 11.6 million since the start of the pandemic — that brings up an obvious question: What about the timing for everyone else?
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has an answer. And it represents even more great news in what’s proven to be a lightning-fast, record-breaking achievement for scientific progress — bringing a successful vaccine to fruition in less than a year for a novel virus that was only first discovered months ago.
bgr.com/2020/11/19/coronavirus-vaccine-availability-according-to-dr-fauci/
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Fauci says the average American could get vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as April: ‘I would take the vaccine’
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert who has guided the U.S. through the pandemic, projected Americans could expect their first doses of an approved coronavirus vaccine as early as April.
Front-line health care workers are expected to get their first doses by the end of December or early January. After prioritizing people at risk of infection or severe disease, the healthy general population can expect first doses of a vaccine starting in April and through July if all continues on track, Fauci told the USA TODAY Editorial Board on Wednesday.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fauci-says-the-average-american-could-get-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-soon-as-april-i-would-take-the-vaccine/ar-BB1b8TaV
Most Americans Don’t Trust Trump’s Vaccine Comments: Poll
TUESDAY, Sept. 15, 2020 (Healthday News) — In a sign that Americans are becoming more wary about the safety of a new coronavirus vaccine, a new poll shows a majority of adults don’t trust what President Donald Trump has said on vaccine development.
More than half (52%) of adults said they don’t trust the president’s vaccine comments, the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll found, while just 26% say they do. Twenty percent said they were “not aware” whether they trust what the president has said about a vaccine, NBC News reported.
Those polled were also more skeptical about whether they or their families would get a government-approved coronavirus vaccine if one became widely available, NBC News reported.
The poll’s latest data show that just 39% said they would get it, 23% said they wouldn’t and 36% say they weren’t sure. Just a month ago, 44% of Americans said they would get a government-approved vaccine, 22% said they wouldn’t, and 32% said they weren’t sure.
The highest level of confidence in a coronavirus vaccine came during the week of Aug. 17 to Aug. 23, when 45% polled said they would get a vaccine.
www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-09-15/most-americans-dont-trust-trumps-vaccine-comments-poll
Dr. Moncef Slaoui, chief of the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed’s vaccine efforts, said the first people in the United States could get vaccinated for COVID-19 next month also said that 80% of Americans should be vaccinated in order for the program, plan to be successful.
Slaoui said the administration’s goal is to distribute an approved vaccine within 24 hours of its approval by the Food and Drug Administration. A committee is expected to meet in December to approve Pfizer’s emergency authorization request for its vaccine candidate, found to be 95% effective in preventing the coronavirus.
www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/first-americans-could-get-covid-19-vaccine-by-mid-december-top-official-says
h/t money$$


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--Another brilliant mind on the Internet revealed how votes were shifted from President Trump to Biden

Another brilliant mind on the Internet revealed how votes were shifted from President Trump to Biden in the 2020 election.

This analysis shows votes coming from Trump or through the Third Party Candidates and eventually landing in Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ time the cheating in the election wasn ’ t as simple as the votes going @ @ @ @ @ What they did was take votes from Trump and send them to third party or @ @ @ @ @ give to Biden This is how the cheat happens .
This is data from NYT @ @ @ @ @ little script that tracks how the votes have moved .
This is Wisconsin… They pile @ @ @ @ @ third party candidate then bounce it to Biden .
Every time… Here he shows the @ @ @ @ @ swing states..scroll through !

This analysis shows votes coming from Trump or through the Third Party Candidates and eventually landing in Biden’s bucket:
Most of the time the cheating in the election wasn’t as simple as the votes going to one particular candidate. What they did was take votes from Trump and send them to third party or take both from 3rd and give to Biden
This is how the cheat happens. This is data from NYT election feed run through a little script that tracks how the votes have moved. This is Wisconsin… They pile it all up on the third party candidate then bounce it to Biden. Every time…
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Here he shows the pump and dump in all swing states..scroll through!
h/t Loose Rooster


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--Ohio lawmakers pass bill stripping Gov. Mike DeWine of his power to issue statewide coronavirus orde

Ohio lawmakers pass bill stripping Gov. Mike DeWine of his power to issue statewide coronavirus orders

Over a promised veto from Gov .
Mike DeWine , the Ohio House approved legislation Thursday that would block state @ @ @ @ @ for residents who have not been exposed to or diagnosed with disease , the latest @ @ @ @ @ limits on the authority of the governor ’ s administration during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic @ @ @ @ @ 311 also would enable lawmakers to rescind certain Ohio Department of Health orders or rules @ @ @ @ @ of infectious disease .
Backers say the proposed law changes would provide a needed check @ @ @ @ @ residents ’ civil liberties , lives and livelihoods .
Opponents counter that the legislation would @ @ @ @ @ ability to effectively address infectious diseases and outbreaks .
The bill passed the Ohio House @ @ @ @ @ Government Committee Thursday morning and was OK ’ d by the full chamber later in @ @ @ @ @ of 58-32 .

Over a promised veto from Gov. Mike DeWine, the Ohio House approved legislation Thursday that would block state health officials’ quarantine orders for residents who have not been exposed to or diagnosed with disease, the latest effort by lawmakers to place limits on the authority of the governor’s administration during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and beyond.
Senate Bill 311 also would enable lawmakers to rescind certain Ohio Department of Health orders or rules aimed at stopping the spread of infectious disease.
Backers say the proposed law changes would provide a needed check on wider orders that impact residents’ civil liberties, lives and livelihoods.
Opponents counter that the legislation would harmfully limit health officials’ ability to effectively address infectious diseases and outbreaks.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The bill passed the Ohio House’s State and Local Government Committee Thursday morning and was OK’d by the full chamber later in the day by a vote of 58-32.
www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/state/2020/11/19/ohio-house-set-vote-bill-limiting-dewine-action-quarantines/3775374001/
h/t Mi


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--GEORGIA Going Down — Lin Wood Has Proof Of The Chinese Bribes

Lin Wood just said that The Governor and the Secretary of State of Georgia has taken money from China and @ @ @ @ @ payments .
BOOM !
RINOS

Lin Wood just said that The Governor and the Secretary of State of Georgia has taken money from China and they have proof of the payments. BOOM! RINOS
— Mr. American Patriot (@MrAmericanPatr1) November 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--MARKETS A LOOK AHEAD: Pump Or Dump? By Gregory Mannarino

Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the @ @ @ @ @ that working on Wall Street was not like the movies , he moved on to @ @ @ @ @ practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant .
He also served in the United States Naval @ @ @ @ @ having attained the rank of Lieutenant .
He is an active trader of the capital @ @ @ @ @ books pertaining to finance , global economics , and equity trading .
Gregory currently hosts @ @ @ @ @ ” on YouTube .
You can find out more about what he offers at his @ @ @

TradersChoice.net, Released on 11/22/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. After realizing that working on Wall Street was not like the movies, he moved on to get a medical degree and practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant. He also served in the United States Naval Reserve Medical Service Corps, having attained the rank of Lieutenant. He is an active trader of the capital markets and has published several books pertaining to finance, global economics, and equity trading. Gregory currently hosts a business day “MarketReport” on YouTube. You can find out more about what he offers at his website Traderschoice.net.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-23--Microsoft Adds New Free Features for Teams as It Battles Zoom

Microsoft ( MSFT ) – Get Report continues adding new features to its Teams collaboration platform at a breakneck pace @ @ @ @ @ gain more ground against the likes of Zoom ( ZM ) – Get Report and @ @ @ @ @ Get Report .
On Friday , the software giant expanded support for personal ( non-business @ @ @ @ @ PC and web browser apps .
And notably — with the holiday season on the @ @ @ @ @ let personal account users host up to 24-hour video calls featuring up to 300 people @ @ @ @ @ on Microsoft ’ s Oct. 27 earnings call that Teams ’ daily active user ( @ @ @ @ @ above 115 million .
That ’ s up from 75 million as of late April @ @ @ @ @ of Oct. 2019 .

www.thestreet.com/investing/microsoft-adds-new-free-features-for-teams-as-it-battles-zoom
Microsoft (MSFT) – Get Report continues adding new features to its Teams collaboration platform at a breakneck pace, as it tries to gain more ground against the likes of Zoom (ZM) – Get Report and Slack (WORK) – Get Report.
On Friday, the software giant expanded support for personal (non-business) Teams accounts to its PC and web browser apps. And notably — with the holiday season on the way — Microsoft will now let personal account users host up to 24-hour video calls featuring up to 300 people.
CEO Satya Nadella disclosed on Microsoft’s Oct. 27 earnings call that Teams’ daily active user (DAU) count has risen above 115 million. That’s up from 75 million as of late April and just 20 million as of Oct. 2019.