investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Connecting all the dots

Connecting all the dots

Maybe I ’ m on a roll today Maybe I just have a lot to say you have to read this with a open mind , not as a republican or a democrat , but as a human being to be able to understand .
take the blinders off for a sec and just hear me out without passing judgement I used to keep my Conspiracy Beliefs to myself mainly because I ’ m a pretty private person and dont really like sharing my beliefs and I know how it is perceived by other people , how “ impossible ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happen , you ’ re wrong and seen as a crazy person… which if you think I ’ m crazy then I guess we weren ’ t ever friends in the 1st place The NWO has always been my “ favorite ( not in a good way ) ” conspiracy , or the one ive always researched more than others There is a Global Power Struggle going on amongst the elites behind closed doors But I ’ m seeing people I know start to open up their minds and go down some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been in for years… some of these people being the people who were commenting on my original COVID post months ago about how way off I was , and how serious and deadly the virus was going to be….
, and seeing that has inspired me to share my own thoughts from my research I ’ m not asking you to believe in the conspiracies .
I ’ m just asking you to think about with a open mind .
Look at the connections .
Connect the dots yourself and do your own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But before doing so you have to understand 2 things… 1 .
The MSM controls us by triggering us to immediately react to our emotions , mainly with death & race being the big 2 , because we are a reactionary society ( which in turn forms as a habit , so we ’ ve essentially been trained , and then we start responding to people out of reactions but thats a different story for a different day ) • You have to understand that when it comes to the money involved with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so large , that we can ’ t comprehend how powerful that amount of money is and what it can do for you , Because the elite are the wealthiest of the wealthy , and when you have that much money and powerful friends to go along with it , you have power and control , you can buy anything or anyone – all you need are the right people and systems surrouding you – money is the root of all evil correct ?
follow the paper trail Now I ’ ll start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID pandemic started , I was in Fort Lauderdale , Florida playing baseball every morning with about 200 other dudes .
With how contagious the virus was and continuing to spread like wildfire , South Florida was deemed as one of the hot beds for the virus During this time I spent in Florida , I also went to the Casino about 10 times ( and yes I came out ahead for the whole trip ) which was said to be one of the most contagious places you could go My family , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me for a week , where we also went gambling 3 different times .
So after a month ( middle of February – March 20th ) of swapping sweat with 200 other guys everyday , consistently going to a gym which was in SoFlo , and as many times as I went to the casino… – I came home as soon as the stay at home quarantine orders were going into place because we had gotten shut down from playing baseball .
I was bound to bring to virus home and get sick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I started working Door Dash and Instacart , where I was coming into direct contact with people every day , all while not wearing a mask nor gloves , just sanitizing my hands between each delivery .
Now through all that , … and when I say this dont get distracted from the point im trying to make… thankfully obviously , but from being in such a hot bed of where the virus was spreading , not only did I not get sick , but neither did 1 of the guys I was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m not saying the virus isn ’ t real .
I think the virus is very real , but I think it was intentionally mishandled to spread fear amongst the public so that the masses could be controlled through the media and directed the direction the media is wanting to push them to just like herding sheep – fear mongering -and unfortunately the people who had underlying issues and were put on ventilators had to suffer from being intentionally murdered by suffocation ( what a coincidence that so many people ( including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost 15 pound in January from being sick ) were complaining of the same symptoms as COVID in November , December , and January… and if you really want to dig , some even go as far back as last summer June – August .
but when tested for flu , they all came back as a Respiratory Infection… the virus was already here… .
Why ?
Now on to some of my bullet proof points to show you “ the new normal ” as the media outlets are calling it .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having to be recognized as “ the new normal ” after a pandemic ?
Do you mean its a New Normal because of the changes the New World Order is going to create globally ?
Hmm.. things are getting interesting , now lets take a look • To start , they scared people into locking themselves in their house , which keeps you from coming in contact with all the bacteria we encounter daily that adds to the building of our immune system… remember we still have a flu season ahead of us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , bird flu , MONO , etc .
-They ’ ve created “ the new normal ” and programmed it to be repeated over and over again by media outlets across the country… What could possibly be so new about it ?
-They ’ ve programmed you to wear a mask everywhere you go , which leads to you breathing in your own carbon dioxide , which has lead to multiple cases of people getting infections in the lining of their lungs from breathing in their own Carbon Dioxide for such a long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get such information like this if the MSM isn ’ t telling me , straight from peoples 1st hand encounters who were sharing their story ) and breathing in the Carbon Dioxide for an extended period of time can cause Asphyxiation… hmm that word looks familiar , isn ’ t that the same cause of death that George Floyd suffered from ?
( dont get your panties in a wad , im merely connecting the dots for you , im not saying GF death wasn ’ t wrong , or that it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his masks , just giving you the puzzle pieces ) -Unemployment has now soared to an all time high , at a time when the African American unemployment rate was at a all time low -Small business were told that they couldn ’ t operate , only big corporations were being pushed to open up , who are funded by the elite ( Target – George Soros ) ( NWO ) -Now there is racial tension everywhere you look , its almost as if they are trying to divide us… do you know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conquer , but you can only divide and conquer if their are 2 parties ( Democrat/Republican ) that are split up and put against eachother , so they will cause a distraction over here so we can do something while you aren ’ t paying attention over here ) ( remember when those Astronauts went to space in the middle of a pandemic “ Social Distancing ” , at the same time Joe Biden tells black people they arent black if they dont vote for him , and then mere days later race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -During the last few days of protest , there is a vast majority of human beings of all colors who are protesting peacefully , along with cops protesting with them .
But they arent showing you the way people are coming together and uniting , no they are showing you the looting and rioting to make you believe there is a racial divide so that we will stay divided and continue pointing fingers at who ’ s fault it is -Speaking of riots and protests , These are being pushed by the extreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there is a divide .
Remember that man in all Black destroying Autozone windows in broad daylight during the Peaceful Protests That same night , what was the big corporate store that got looted again ?
oh thats right , TARGET !
which Is directly funded by George Soros who owns more than 550,000 shares of Target stock , 544,000 were bought in the 1st quarter of 2011 -Remember the funding of The WHO by Bill Gates ?
why would someone want so much stake in the World Health Organization .
Is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID numbers as he sees fit to make sure the sheep are herded in the right direction .
and why is someone who ’ s claim to fame is creating the internet ( technology ) be so involved in a virus/pandemic .
Could it be his obsession of Population Control which he has openly talked about for years , as well as saying that every human should be vaccinated ( when he doesnt even vaccinate his own kids ) ( ( his wife did an interview on tv where she was openly wearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ? )
) its also interesting how 2 of his closest buddies are Dr Facui and George Soros.. hmm… -Then we have the President , before you read this , you can ’ t read it with the hatred you have for Trump , read it just as “ the president ” with no other name or image attached .
The President begins to take hydroxychloroquine which is proven to fight COVID , but yet the MSM continue to berate the president and discredits the affects of hydroxychloroquine .
Why would they do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make the president look bad in front of the nation ?
if the most protected person on the planet is taking a medicine that is proven to be working against a virus at pandemic levels… wouldnt you share the same medicine with the nation to protect your citizens ?
hmmm -Property taxes will now go up due to the destruction from riots which were caused by extremist from the left and right… when people don ’ t have any money because they are unemployed or because the government told them their livelihood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worry , You can file unemployment and we ’ ll send you enough to get by , just to keep you happy and distract you from your freedoms disappearing -The WHO has now been discredited with the information they have been giving out .
The virus no longer spreads on surfaces and along with the inflation of numbers to frighten the population -34 out of 50 states had more flu deaths in 2018 than Corona .
Why did we shut down ?
2 more of those states.. Georgia and Washington had COVID deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
so 36 out of 50 states had less or equivalent to the same amount of deaths as the Flu , but were worried about a virus that has higher odds than getting struck by lightning ?
What about all the people that got killed in Chicago over Memorial Day weekend… crickets -Blue states have continued to stay closed despite the numbers showing that its okay to open back up .
Why would they stay closed and continue to affect their citizens , health and income .
is it because they are intentionally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forget for you mask wearers , stay at home people .
and germaphobes , once you are acclimated back to society , you ’ ll be at more of a risk to getting sick due to your immune system being low from not coming in contact with bacteria… Remember how many more people die from Flu than COVID ?
( Population control ? )
( wear your mask forever ? )
-Now you ’ re wondering why they would be going through all of this and what the end game is .
Seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be taken away , your freedom of speech is being censored online , they have taken away your ability to work and have instead made people rely on the government to survive , through their corporate companies which put more money in their pockets and have crushed the every day average farmer that feeds the whole nation , instead they cut food supply , raise meat prices , and are trying to only use corporate farms where everything is injected with hormones and who knows what else ( is a war over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Once America starts becoming a Socialist country , they are closer to a world control with NWO , Next up… America becomes a country of Communism and now the Elite control the world , How ?
They are in control of the most powerful country in the history of mankind , they have enough money to last for lifetimes ( money is power ) and they also control The WHO where they decide which vaccinations and medicines you get , along with having a “ DR ” on board And for all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact check ” every post because “ you read it on the internet so it can ’ t be true ” … .
Okay Becky , if the MSM on TV is being controlled to create a certain narrative , what makes you think that the same narrative wouldn ’ t be pushed on social media by censoring posts that go against the direction they are trying to point you to .
This is America , Don ’ t we have something called the Freedom of Speech which allows us to say what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including the internet Now after reading all that and people still continue to think something isn ’ t up ?
🤔 There are too many coincidences , and that ’ s only in a matter of 3 MONTHS !
!
!
Are You Awake Yet ?
Now what I encourage you to do , research for yourself , and not through the MSM either where they control the narrative , I ’ m talking about research from actual humans , who have 1st hand accounts and you can pull from peoples personal experiences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t a matter of Political Parties.. Democrat vs Republicans .
This is the Human Race vs The Corrupt Elite and if you can ’ t see that then “ You are part of the problem ” We as humans need to recognize this before it ’ s too late and human life as we know it is gone Are you scared or Are you ready to fight ?
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by Godously
Maybe I’m on a roll today Maybe I just have a lot to say
you have to read this with a open mind, not as a republican or a democrat, but as a human being to be able to understand. take the blinders off for a sec and just hear me out without passing judgement
I used to keep my Conspiracy Beliefs to myself mainly because I’m a pretty private person and dont really like sharing my beliefs and I know how it is perceived by other people, how “impossible” it is for something like that to happen, you’re wrong and seen as a crazy person… which if you think I’m crazy then I guess we weren’t ever friends in the 1st place
The NWO has always been my “favorite(not in a good way)” conspiracy, or the one ive always researched more than others
There is a Global Power Struggle going on amongst the elites behind closed doors
But I’m seeing people I know start to open up their minds and go down some of these same rabbit holes that I have been in for years… some of these people being the people who were commenting on my original COVID post months ago about how way off I was, and how serious and deadly the virus was going to be…., and seeing that has inspired me to share my own thoughts from my research
I’m not asking you to believe in the conspiracies. I’m just asking you to think about with a open mind. Look at the connections. Connect the dots yourself and do your own research and form your own opinion.
But before doing so you have to understand 2 things… 1. The MSM controls us by triggering us to immediately react to our emotions, mainly with death & race being the big 2, because we are a reactionary society (which in turn forms as a habit, so we’ve essentially been trained, and then we start responding to people out of reactions but thats a different story for a different day)
You have to understand that when it comes to the money involved with the elite… it’s an amount so large, that we can’t comprehend how powerful that amount of money is and what it can do for you, Because the elite are the wealthiest of the wealthy, and when you have that much money and powerful friends to go along with it, you have power and control, you can buy anything or anyone – all you need are the right people and systems surrouding you – money is the root of all evil correct? follow the paper trail
Now I’ll start with my 1st red flag
When the COVID pandemic started, I was in Fort Lauderdale, Florida playing baseball every morning with about 200 other dudes. With how contagious the virus was and continuing to spread like wildfire, South Florida was deemed as one of the hot beds for the virus During this time I spent in Florida, I also went to the Casino about 10 times (and yes I came out ahead for the whole trip) which was said to be one of the most contagious places you could go My family, including my 2 grandparents came to visit me for a week, where we also went gambling 3 different times. So after a month (middle of February – March 20th) of swapping sweat with 200 other guys everyday, consistently going to a gym which was in SoFlo, and as many times as I went to the casino… – I came home as soon as the stay at home quarantine orders were going into place because we had gotten shut down from playing baseball. I was bound to bring to virus home and get sick right? Then I got home and I started working Door Dash and Instacart, where I was coming into direct contact with people every day, all while not wearing a mask nor gloves, just sanitizing my hands between each delivery. Now through all that,… and when I say this dont get distracted from the point im trying to make… thankfully obviously, but from being in such a hot bed of where the virus was spreading, not only did I not get sick, but neither did 1 of the guys I was down in Florida with
I thought this virus was SOOO contagious?
Now, I’m not saying the virus isn’t real. I think the virus is very real, but I think it was intentionally mishandled to spread fear amongst the public so that the masses could be controlled through the media and directed the direction the media is wanting to push them to just like herding sheep – fear mongering -and unfortunately the people who had underlying issues and were put on ventilators had to suffer from being intentionally murdered by suffocation (what a coincidence that so many people (including me and my immediate family – I lost 15 pound in January from being sick) were complaining of the same symptoms as COVID in November, December, and January… and if you really want to dig, some even go as far back as last summer June – August. but when tested for flu, they all came back as a Respiratory Infection… the virus was already here…. Why?
Now on to some of my bullet proof points to show you “the new normal” as the media outlets are calling it. What could be so different that it is having to be recognized as “the new normal” after a pandemic? Do you mean its a New Normal because of the changes the New World Order is going to create globally?
Hmm.. things are getting interesting, now lets take a look
To start, they scared people into locking themselves in their house, which keeps you from coming in contact with all the bacteria we encounter daily that adds to the building of our immune system… remember we still have a flu season ahead of us, along with countless other viruses.. H1N1, bird flu, MONO, etc.
-They’ve created “the new normal” and programmed it to be repeated over and over again by media outlets across the country… What could possibly be so new about it?
-They’ve programmed you to wear a mask everywhere you go, which leads to you breathing in your own carbon dioxide, which has lead to multiple cases of people getting infections in the lining of their lungs from breathing in their own Carbon Dioxide for such a long period of time (where could I get such information like this if the MSM isn’t telling me, straight from peoples 1st hand encounters who were sharing their story) and breathing in the Carbon Dioxide for an extended period of time can cause Asphyxiation… hmm that word looks familiar, isn’t that the same cause of death that George Floyd suffered from? (dont get your panties in a wad, im merely connecting the dots for you, im not saying GF death wasn’t wrong, or that it was staged, or that he died from his masks, just giving you the puzzle pieces)
-Unemployment has now soared to an all time high, at a time when the African American unemployment rate was at a all time low
-Stock market began crashing
-Small business were told that they couldn’t operate, only big corporations were being pushed to open up, who are funded by the elite (Target – George Soros) (NWO)
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-Cities are now burning
-Now there is racial tension everywhere you look, its almost as if they are trying to divide us… do you know why?.. (To divide and conquer, but you can only divide and conquer if their are 2 parties (Democrat/Republican) that are split up and put against eachother, so they will cause a distraction over here so we can do something while you aren’t paying attention over here) (remember when those Astronauts went to space in the middle of a pandemic “Social Distancing”, at the same time Joe Biden tells black people they arent black if they dont vote for him, and then mere days later race wars are burning the country?)
-During the last few days of protest, there is a vast majority of human beings of all colors who are protesting peacefully, along with cops protesting with them. But they arent showing you the way people are coming together and uniting, no they are showing you the looting and rioting to make you believe there is a racial divide so that we will stay divided and continue pointing fingers at who’s fault it is
-Speaking of riots and protests, These are being pushed by the extreme left and right to make you believe that there is a divide. Remember that man in all Black destroying Autozone windows in broad daylight during the Peaceful Protests That same night, what was the big corporate store that got looted again? oh thats right, TARGET! which Is directly funded by George Soros who owns more than 550,000 shares of Target stock, 544,000 were bought in the 1st quarter of 2011
-Remember the funding of The WHO by Bill Gates? why would someone want so much stake in the World Health Organization. Is it so that he can manipulate the COVID numbers as he sees fit to make sure the sheep are herded in the right direction. and why is someone who’s claim to fame is creating the internet (technology) be so involved in a virus/pandemic. Could it be his obsession of Population Control which he has openly talked about for years, as well as saying that every human should be vaccinated (when he doesnt even vaccinate his own kids)((his wife did an interview on tv where she was openly wearing a upside down cross, Satanic Symbolism?)) its also interesting how 2 of his closest buddies are Dr Facui and George Soros.. hmm…
-Then we have the President, before you read this, you can’t read it with the hatred you have for Trump, read it just as “the president” with no other name or image attached. The President begins to take hydroxychloroquine which is proven to fight COVID, but yet the MSM continue to berate the president and discredits the affects of hydroxychloroquine. Why would they do that? to continue the divide? to make the president look bad in front of the nation? if the most protected person on the planet is taking a medicine that is proven to be working against a virus at pandemic levels… wouldnt you share the same medicine with the nation to protect your citizens? hmmm
-Property taxes will now go up due to the destruction from riots which were caused by extremist from the left and right… when people don’t have any money because they are unemployed or because the government told them their livelihood wasn’t essential? But dont worry, You can file unemployment and we’ll send you enough to get by, just to keep you happy and distract you from your freedoms disappearing
-The WHO has now been discredited with the information they have been giving out. The virus no longer spreads on surfaces and along with the inflation of numbers to frighten the population
-34 out of 50 states had more flu deaths in 2018 than Corona. Why did we shut down? 2 more of those states.. Georgia and Washington had COVID deaths that were similar to 2018 Flu Deaths. so 36 out of 50 states had less or equivalent to the same amount of deaths as the Flu, but were worried about a virus that has higher odds than getting struck by lightning? What about all the people that got killed in Chicago over Memorial Day weekend… crickets
-Blue states have continued to stay closed despite the numbers showing that its okay to open back up. Why would they stay closed and continue to affect their citizens, health and income. is it because they are intentionally trying to divide you?
-lets not forget for you mask wearers, stay at home people. and germaphobes, once you are acclimated back to society, you’ll be at more of a risk to getting sick due to your immune system being low from not coming in contact with bacteria… Remember how many more people die from Flu than COVID? (Population control?) (wear your mask forever?)
-Now you’re wondering why they would be going through all of this and what the end game is. Seeing how our rights have been continued to be taken away, your freedom of speech is being censored online, they have taken away your ability to work and have instead made people rely on the government to survive, through their corporate companies which put more money in their pockets and have crushed the every day average farmer that feeds the whole nation, instead they cut food supply, raise meat prices, and are trying to only use corporate farms where everything is injected with hormones and who knows what else ( is a war over the shortage of food coming next? ) Once America starts becoming a Socialist country, they are closer to a world control with NWO, Next up… America becomes a country of Communism and now the Elite control the world, How? They are in control of the most powerful country in the history of mankind, they have enough money to last for lifetimes (money is power) and they also control The WHO where they decide which vaccinations and medicines you get, along with having a “DR” on board
And for all of you Truth Seekers who continue to “fact check” every post because “you read it on the internet so it can’t be true” …. Okay Becky, if the MSM on TV is being controlled to create a certain narrative, what makes you think that the same narrative wouldn’t be pushed on social media by censoring posts that go against the direction they are trying to point you to. This is America, Don’t we have something called the Freedom of Speech which allows us to say what we want, where we want, including the internet
Now after reading all that and people still continue to think something isn’t up? 🤔 There are too many coincidences, and that’s only in a matter of 3 MONTHS!!!
Are You Awake Yet?
Now what I encourage you to do, research for yourself, and not through the MSM either where they control the narrative, I’m talking about research from actual humans, who have 1st hand accounts and you can pull from peoples personal experiences and form your own opinion.
This isn’t a matter of Political Parties.. Democrat vs Republicans. This is the Human Race vs The Corrupt Elite and if you can’t see that then “You are part of the problem” We as humans need to recognize this before it’s too late and human life as we know it is gone
Are you scared or Are you ready to fight?
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Covid! Riots! Martial Law? How to Survive – Stefan Verstappen

In this edited version of my interview with Stefan Verstappen he gives us his insight into the true motives behind @ @ @ @ @ .
With his Art of Urban Survival , Stefan teaches us how to recognize and @ @ @ @ @ 1-on-1 altercations .

In this edited version of my interview with Stefan Verstappen he gives us his insight into the true motives behind Covid-19 and the US riots. With his Art of Urban Survival, Stefan teaches us how to recognize and minimize threats within society or 1-on-1 altercations.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t Person445


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Police Recover Enormous Supply Drops of Bricks Mysteriously Appearing at Protests Across America

My experience trying to tell people the truth
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investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Bear Markets Unfold When Social Mood Turns Decidedly Negative

We are living in the early stages of failed central planning .
Bear markets unfold when social mood turns decidedly @ @ @ @ @ currency destruction have been sponsored by academic elite .
Thanks for listening to this week @ @ @ @ @ The objective of McAlvany Weekly Commentary is to provide investors with valuable monetary , economic @ @ @ @ @ that can not be found on Wall Street .
As a listener , each week @ @ @ @ @ discussions from David and a revolving cast of internationally-renowned economists , authors , and financial @ @

We are living in the early stages of failed central planning. Bear markets unfold when social mood turns decidedly negative. Past episodes of currency destruction have been sponsored by academic elite. Thanks for listening to this week’s McAlvany Commentary. The objective of McAlvany Weekly Commentary is to provide investors with valuable monetary, economic, geopolitical and financial information that cannot be found on Wall Street. As a listener, each week you’ll enjoy relevant discussions from David and a revolving cast of internationally-renowned economists, authors, and financial advisors.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--How To Prepare For The New Depression – Robert Kiyosaki and Richard Duncan

The Government is managing the economy through government debt and the Fed printing money .
There ’ s no better @ @ @ @ @ this than when the Fed announced it would create limitless amounts of money in March @ @ @ @ @ not printed money , the U.S. would have certainly fallen into a depression .
The @ @ @ @ @ is , “ How long can this go on before we spiral into a new @ @ @ @ @ this question , you first must : 1 .
Understand the forces that drove the @ @ @ @ @ markets before the Coronavirus struck .
2 .
Understand what the government must do now @ @ @ @ @ wealth and a new Great Depression .
Listen as host Robert Kiyosaki and guest Richard @ @ @ @ @ international bestseller , “ The Dollar Crisis : Causes , Consequences , Cures , ” @ @ @ @ @ crisis started long before the coronavirus spread throughout the world and what you can do @ @ @

The Government is managing the economy through government debt and the Fed printing money. There’s no better example of why they do this than when the Fed announced it would create limitless amounts of money in March 2020. Had the Government not printed money, the U.S. would have certainly fallen into a depression.
The question you should be asking is, “How long can this go on before we spiral into a new depression?” To answer this question, you first must:
1. Understand the forces that drove the global economy and the financial markets before the Coronavirus struck.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
2. Understand what the government must do now to prevent unprecedented destruction of wealth and a new Great Depression.
Listen as host Robert Kiyosaki and guest Richard Duncan, author of the international bestseller, “The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures,” discuss how the current financial crisis started long before the coronavirus spread throughout the world and what you can do about it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Why The Recovery Will Fall Short of Forecasts

Why The Recovery Will Fall Short of Forecasts Market pundits seem to have strong opinions about how fast or slow the economic recovery will be once it starts .
Such clairvoyance is stunning given the uncertainty of the current GDP forecast , which is already two-thirds in the books .
If the world ’ s leading economists can not come to any consensus about today , why should we assume anyone has clarity for tomorrow ?
We do not have great clarity either , but we can provide guidance using what we know about the past and present .
Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assumptions and historical data .
The result is an outcome that is well below the hope-based forecasts of most economists .
Quite frankly , what we present today may be the best possible scenario .
It strays far from the popular narrative but deserves serious consideration .
Will the economy recover in “ V ” , “ U ” or “ L ” – shaped fashion ?
We hope for a speedy “ V ” -shaped recovery , but we are realists and understand that the odds of quickly rekindling the economic growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Our stark assessment is due to numerous factors that existed well before the virus and the extreme fiscal and monetary policy responses to the virus .
The last sentence is loaded .
We will follow it up in future articles explaining why a full recovery is so difficult .
In the meantime , we present a simple economic model , using very optimistic assumptions showing why this recovery is likely to be measured in years , not months .
It is important to stress ; the assumptions in our model are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come up with more severe scenarios .
Gross domestic product ( GDP ) is how economic activity and growth are quantified .
GDP is the sum of personal consumption expenditures ( PCE ) , gross business investment , net government spending , and the amount of exports less imports .
The most substantial weighting in GDP is personal consumption expenditures ( PCE ) .
Over the prior economic expansion , lasting a decade , PCE constituted 74 % of GDP .
Since 1948 , it has averaged 65 % .
The outsized significance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has on the other contributors to GDP , allows economists to use PCE as a proxy to forecast economic growth .
Statistically , using three-year moving averages , PCE and Real GDP have a correlation of .7789 .
As PCE drives GDP , labor drives PCE .
The vast majority of families in the U.S. work to consume .
Some wealthy households can rely on investments and savings , and some poor citizens depend on the government .
However , the large majority of citizens must consume its wages .
Accordingly , PCE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the size of our paychecks .
The graph below shows the year over year change in the number of employed versus the year over year change in PCE .
When averaged over two years , as the darker lines show , the correlation is clear .
Given the strong relationship between the labor market and consumption , we can use labor forecasts to arrive at PCE estimates .
This is a two-step process .
First , current data and near-term expectations afford a forecast for when and at what level the labor market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prior recession data to calculate the rate at which the labor market may recover from the trough .
Step 1– As of the April 2020 BLS jobs report , the number of people counted as employed fell 13.5 % to 131 million .
Economists expect it to fall another 6 % to 123 million when the May report is released this Friday .
We aggressively presume that the May report will mark the low point in jobs and that the number of employed will increase going forward .
Step 2– The graph below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth might return to its prior peak .
The orange bars show the depth of employment losses in terms of number and time .
We invert the second y-axis for comparative purposes .
The most recent , 2008/09 recession , took 76 months for the number of jobs to go from peak to trough and back to the prior peak .
When considering the last three recessions , the recession of 2008/09 is the best proxy to model future expectations .
Not only was it the most recent recession , but it best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• The recession was broader based , and affected more industries , citizens , and nations , than the prior recessions of 1990 and 2001 .
• The 2008/09 recession and recovery also required significantly more fiscal and monetary policy to boost economic activity .
• The amount of federal , corporate , and individual debt was significantly lower in 1990 and 2001 then 2008/09 .
• The natural economic growth rate for 1990 and 2001 was higher than the rate going into the 2008/09 recession .
Our current economy is saddled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the natural rate of growth has diminished over the previous ten years .
As we will share in a future article , the economic growth rate going forward may be half of the already weak pace heading into the current recession .
As has progressively been the case , new debt issuance to fight the current recession will cost us in the future .
Accordingly , we think the 2008 experience is an optimistic proxy to analyze the time and rate at which the labor market might recover .
In fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the absolute best-case scenario .
The number of job losses is already much more severe than that seen in the financial crisis , and the duration of the recovery seems certain to be longer than that episode .
In the 2008/09 recession , the payrolls number troughed two years after the recession started , falling 6.3 % from the prior peak .
From that low point , it took over four years for the labor market to fully regain the losses .
In total , the labor market required six years to recover @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people the BLS considers employed peaked in February 2020 at 156.463 million .
It dipped by a little less than one million in March and then plummeted in April by over 25.4 million to 131.045 million .
Today , the range of estimates for the number of current employees is wide .
For our analysis , we assume that the May jobs report will mark the trough .
The current estimate for the number of employed is 123 million .
To review , our forecast assumes that jobs will trough in May .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ recover at the same rate and duration as in the aftermath of 2008 .
Using this assumption we create the PCE forecast shown below .
If the historical relationship between labor and PCE holds up , and consumption continues to be the predominant contributor to GDP , we should not expect GDP to regain prior highs until 2025 .
The recovery we laid out above is not a “ V ” or “ U ” shape .
It resembles the Nike swoosh logo with a sharp decline and a long period of recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( CBO ) agrees with us in that recovery will be much longer than most economists forecast .
The CBO ’ s Nike swoosh forecast below shows the economy will not fully recover for at least a decade .
As mentioned , this analysis assumes a recovery akin to what the economy experienced in 2008 .
While 2008 was tough , the natural rate of economic growth at the time was more robust and the amount of debt was less .
Since 2008 , the ratio of Federal debt to GDP has almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 120 % , well beyond the rate that many economists consider sustainable .
Corporate debt to GDP and profits are also growing at unsustainable rates , as shown below .
The simple takeaway is that debt will weigh even more heavily on the current path of growth as the economy recovers .
Economists , when forecasting economic activity , often fail to account for the existing headwinds fully and rarely the new ones .
Are they willfully ignorant , or might their employers have a vested interest in portraying a favorable outcome ?

by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott
Why The Recovery Will Fall Short of Forecasts
Market pundits seem to have strong opinions about how fast or slow the economic recovery will be once it starts. Such clairvoyance is stunning given the uncertainty of the current GDP forecast, which is already two-thirds in the books.
If the world’s leading economists cannot come to any consensus about today, why should we assume anyone has clarity for tomorrow?
We do not have great clarity either, but we can provide guidance using what we know about the past and present. Our logic presented here is grounded in optimistic assumptions and historical data. The result is an outcome that is well below the hope-based forecasts of most economists.
Quite frankly, what we present today may be the best possible scenario. It strays far from the popular narrative but deserves serious consideration.
Alphabet Economy
Will the economy recover in “V”, “U” or “L” – shaped fashion?
We hope for a speedy “V”-shaped recovery, but we are realists and understand that the odds of quickly rekindling the economic growth rates from the prior decade are poor. Our stark assessment is due to numerous factors that existed well before the virus and the extreme fiscal and monetary policy responses to the virus.
The last sentence is loaded. We will follow it up in future articles explaining why a full recovery is so difficult. In the meantime, we present a simple economic model, using very optimistic assumptions showing why this recovery is likely to be measured in years, not months.
It is important to stress; the assumptions in our model are the best case. It is easy to come up with more severe scenarios.
GDP
Gross domestic product (GDP) is how economic activity and growth are quantified. GDP is the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), gross business investment, net government spending, and the amount of exports less imports.
The most substantial weighting in GDP is personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Over the prior economic expansion, lasting a decade, PCE constituted 74% of GDP. Since 1948, it has averaged 65%.
The outsized significance of consumption and the secondary effect it has on the other contributors to GDP, allows economists to use PCE as a proxy to forecast economic growth. Statistically, using three-year moving averages, PCE and Real GDP have a correlation of .7789.
Jobs > PCE > GDP
As PCE drives GDP, labor drives PCE. The vast majority of families in the U.S. work to consume. Some wealthy households can rely on investments and savings, and some poor citizens depend on the government. However, the large majority of citizens must consume its wages. Accordingly, PCE is mostly a function of employment and the size of our paychecks.
The graph below shows the year over year change in the number of employed versus the year over year change in PCE. When averaged over two years, as the darker lines show, the correlation is clear.
Forecasting Employment
Given the strong relationship between the labor market and consumption, we can use labor forecasts to arrive at PCE estimates. This is a two-step process.
First, current data and near-term expectations afford a forecast for when and at what level the labor market may trough. Second, we use prior recession data to calculate the rate at which the labor market may recover from the trough.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Step 1– As of the April 2020 BLS jobs report, the number of people counted as employed fell 13.5% to 131 million. Economists expect it to fall another 6% to 123 million when the May report is released this Friday. We aggressively presume that the May report will mark the low point in jobs and that the number of employed will increase going forward.
Step 2– The graph below helps illustrate the rate in which job growth might return to its prior peak. The orange bars show the depth of employment losses in terms of number and time. We invert the second y-axis for comparative purposes.
The most recent, 2008/09 recession, took 76 months for the number of jobs to go from peak to trough and back to the prior peak.
2008
When considering the last three recessions, the recession of 2008/09 is the best proxy to model future expectations. Not only was it the most recent recession, but it best captures our current mindset and economic standing.
The recession was broader based, and affected more industries, citizens, and nations, than the prior recessions of 1990 and 2001.
The 2008/09 recession and recovery also required significantly more fiscal and monetary policy to boost economic activity.
The amount of federal, corporate, and individual debt was significantly lower in 1990 and 2001 then 2008/09.
The natural economic growth rate for 1990 and 2001 was higher than the rate going into the 2008/09 recession.
Our current economy is saddled with more debt than the last recession, and the natural rate of growth has diminished over the previous ten years. As we will share in a future article, the economic growth rate going forward may be half of the already weak pace heading into the current recession.
As has progressively been the case, new debt issuance to fight the current recession will cost us in the future. Accordingly, we think the 2008 experience is an optimistic proxy to analyze the time and rate at which the labor market might recover. In fact, The 2008/09 scenario may likely be the absolute best-case scenario. The number of job losses is already much more severe than that seen in the financial crisis, and the duration of the recovery seems certain to be longer than that episode.
In the 2008/09 recession, the payrolls number troughed two years after the recession started, falling 6.3% from the prior peak. From that low point, it took over four years for the labor market to fully regain the losses. In total, the labor market required six years to recover the pre-recession peak.
2020
The number of people the BLS considers employed peaked in February 2020 at 156.463 million. It dipped by a little less than one million in March and then plummeted in April by over 25.4 million to 131.045 million.
Today, the range of estimates for the number of current employees is wide. For our analysis, we assume that the May jobs report will mark the trough. The current estimate for the number of employed is 123 million.
Putting 2 and 2 Together
To review, our forecast assumes that jobs will trough in May. From June going forward, jobs will recover at the same rate and duration as in the aftermath of 2008. Using this assumption we create the PCE forecast shown below.
If the historical relationship between labor and PCE holds up, and consumption continues to be the predominant contributor to GDP, we should not expect GDP to regain prior highs until 2025.
Summary
The recovery we laid out above is not a “V” or “U” shape. It resembles the Nike swoosh logo with a sharp decline and a long period of recovery.
Interestingly, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) agrees with us in that recovery will be much longer than most economists forecast. The CBO’s Nike swoosh forecast below shows the economy will not fully recover for at least a decade.
As mentioned, this analysis assumes a recovery akin to what the economy experienced in 2008. While 2008 was tough, the natural rate of economic growth at the time was more robust and the amount of debt was less.
Since 2008, the ratio of Federal debt to GDP has almost doubled. It now sits close to 120%, well beyond the rate that many economists consider sustainable. Corporate debt to GDP and profits are also growing at unsustainable rates, as shown below.
The simple takeaway is that debt will weigh even more heavily on the current path of growth as the economy recovers.
Economists, when forecasting economic activity, often fail to account for the existing headwinds fully and rarely the new ones. Are they willfully ignorant, or might their employers have a vested interest in portraying a favorable outcome?


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Three Ways The Coronavirus Lockdowns Paved the Way for These Riots

There were many reasons to oppose the COVID-19 lockdowns .
They cost human lives in terms of deferred medical treatment .
They cost human lives in terms of greater suicide and drug overdoses .
Domestic abuse and child abuse have increased .
There is also good reason to believe that lockdowns don ’ t actually work .
The lockdown activists capitalized on media-stoked fear to push their authoritarian agenda based not on science , but on the whims of a handful of experts who insisted that they need not present any actual evidence that their bizarre , draconian , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to human rights , health , and the economic well-being of billions of human beings .
Those who lacked the obsessive and irresponsible tunnel vision of the prolockdown people warned that there were other dangers as well , in terms of social and political conflict .
[ RELATED : `` COVID Panic : The New War on Human Rights ” by Ryan McMaken . ]
It didn ’ t require an especially clear crystal ball to see that destroying the livelihoods of countless millions while empowering a police state to harass and arrest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe—just maybe—could lead to greater social and political conflict .
Specifically , there are three ways in which the lockdowns laid the groundwork for our current state of unrest .
The COVID-19 stay-at-home orders , business closures , and other forms of coerced social distancing have so far led to job losses for well over 30 million Americans .
The unemployment rate has risen to levels not seen since the Great Depression .
Food banks are under strain as Americans line up for free food .
Thanks to government moratoria on evictions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to what extent homeowners and renters are unable to pay mortgages and rents , but a wave of delinquencies is almost certainly coming .
To advocates of lockdowns , this is all “ worth it ” even though these sorts of economic stresses often lead to suicide , stress-induced disease , and death .
But impoverishment , unemployment , and financial ruin are all merely “ inconvenient , ” as described by head lockdown advocate Anthony Fauci .
To someone who isn ’ t enamored of lockdowns , however , it is clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to worsen a variety of social ills , sometimes even resulting in violence .
Moreover , the current job losses appear to be affecting the young and those who earn lower incomes most .
Lockdown advocates have attempted to avoid responsibility for all this by claiming that it is the pandemic itself that has caused the current economic disaster , and not the lockdowns .
This is a baseless assertion .
As has been shown , neither the pandemics of 1918 or 1958 led to the sorts of job losses and decline in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing .
Another outcome of the lockdowns has been the destruction of American social institutions .
These institutions include schools ( both public and private ) , churches , coffee shops , bars , libraries , barbershops , and many others .
Lockdown advocates continue to claim that this is no big deal and insist that people just sit at home and “ binge watch ” television shows .
But researchers have long pointed to the importance of these institutions in preserving peace and as a means of defusing social tensions and problems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wish that human beings could be reduced to creatures that do nothing more than work all day and watch television all night , the fact is that no society can long endure such conditions .
Human beings need what are known as “ third places.
” In a 2016 report , the Brookings Institution described what these places are : the most effective ones for building real community seem to be physical places where people can easily and routinely connect with each other : churches , parks , recreation centers , hairdressers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent newspaper article on McDonald ’ s found that for lower-income Americans , the twin arches are becoming almost the equivalent of the English “ pub , ” which after all is short for “ public house ” : groups of retirees meeting for coffee and talk , they might hold regular Bible study meetings there , and people treat the restaurant as an inexpensive hangout .
Third places have a number of important community-building attributes .
Depending on their location , social classes and backgrounds can be “ leveled-out ” in ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with people feeling they are treated as social equals .
Informal conversation is the main activity and most important linking function .
One commentator refers to third places as the “ living room ” of society .
The lockdown advocates , in a matter of a few days , cut people off from their third places and insisted , in many cases , that this would be the “ new normal ” for a year or more .
Yet , these third places can not simply be shut down—and the public told to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potential for violence and other antisocial behavior .
Indeed , third places act as institutions that provide a type of social control that is key to a well-functioning society .
In his trenchant book The Revolt of the Elites and the Betrayal of Democracy , historian and social critic Christopher Lasch described the importance of third places in communicating political and social values and conventions to young people , and in setting the bounds of acceptable behavior within the community .
Lasch notes that these institutions are also important in defusing violent impulses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ importance is the fact that third places provide a means of social control that is voluntary and not a form of state coercion .
Writing in the 1990s , Lasch was lamenting the decline of third places , although he emphasized their importance even in their modern reduced form .
Thanks to the lockdowns , however , these places have been crippled far beyond what Lasch might ever have imagined .
The lockdowns have created a situation in which millions of law-abiding citizens have been deemed criminals merely for seeking to make a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engage in peaceful trade .
In many areas , violations of the lockdown orders have been—or even still are , in many places—treated as criminal acts by police .
This has greatly increased negative interactions between police and citizens who by no moral definition are criminals of any sort .
Many have already seen the stories : police arresting mothers for using playground equipment , police arresting business owners for using their own property , police beating people for the “ crime ” of standing on a sidewalk .
Complicating the issue is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enforced social distancing edicts “ uniformly.
” Some have alleged , for example , that the NYPD has lopsidedly targeted nonwhites in enforcement : This may or may not reflect the reality of the general situation , but the fact is that the lockdowns created the perception among many that this is just yet another case of law enforcement targeting certain populations over small-time violations .
Moreover , it is quite plausible that lower-income populations have more often been on the receiving end of state harassment in the name of social distancing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ something of a luxury reserved for higher-income , white-collar residents who can work from home and remain comfortable for long periods in their roomy houses .
Working-class people and those with fewer resources are far more likely to need to find income and venture outside during lockdowns .
This attracts the attention of police .
Lockdown advocates , apparently in their usual state of extreme naïvete , perhaps believed that further empowering police to violently enforce government decrees against petty infractions would not lead to any unfortunate side effects down the road .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ them to heightened police harassment is not a recipe for social tranquility .
Of course , my comments here should not be interpreted as making excuses for rioters .
Smashing up the property of innocent small business owners—or worse , physically harming innocent people—is reprehensible in all circumstances .
But this isn ’ t about making excuses .
We ’ re talking about avoiding extreme and immoral government policies ( i.e.
, police-enforced lockdowns ) that remove those institutions and conditions which are important in helping minimize conflict .
Some may insist that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what , but it ’ s easy to see how the lockdowns made a bad situation worse .
Yes , some of the rioters are lifelong thugs who are always on the lookout for new opportunities to steal and maim .
But experience suggests that the pool of people willing to engage in riots is often larger during periods of mass unemployment than during other periods .
In addition , those people who exist on the margins of criminality—the sorts of people for whom third places serve an important role in moderating their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ swept up in these events when third places are abolished .
And , as we have seen , lockdowns also create more opportunities for police abuse that ignite riots of the sort we ’ ve seen in recent days .
It ’ s true the responsibility for the riots lies primarily with the rioters .
But we can not deny that policymakers fuel the flames of conflict when they outlaw jobs and destroy people ’ s social support systems by cutting them off from their communities .
It ’ s also wise to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ human rights violations and additional police harassment .
But this is what lockdown advocates have done , and their imprudence should not be forgotten.Author :

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
There were many reasons to oppose the COVID-19 lockdowns.
They cost human lives in terms of deferred medical treatment. They cost human lives in terms of greater suicide and drug overdoses. Domestic abuse and child abuse have increased. There is also good reason to believe that lockdowns don’t actually work. The lockdown activists capitalized on media-stoked fear to push their authoritarian agenda based not on science, but on the whims of a handful of experts who insisted that they need not present any actual evidence that their bizarre, draconian, and extreme scheme was worth the danger posed to human rights, health, and the economic well-being of billions of human beings.
Those who lacked the obsessive and irresponsible tunnel vision of the prolockdown people warned that there were other dangers as well, in terms of social and political conflict.
[RELATED: “COVID Panic: The New War on Human Rights” by Ryan McMaken.]
It didn’t require an especially clear crystal ball to see that destroying the livelihoods of countless millions while empowering a police state to harass and arrest law-abiding citizens would create a situation that maybe—just maybe—could lead to greater social and political conflict.
Specifically, there are three ways in which the lockdowns laid the groundwork for our current state of unrest.
The Lockdowns Created an Economic Disaster
The COVID-19 stay-at-home orders, business closures, and other forms of coerced social distancing have so far led to job losses for well over 30 million Americans. The unemployment rate has risen to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Food banks are under strain as Americans line up for free food. Thanks to government moratoria on evictions in many areas, it is still unknown to what extent homeowners and renters are unable to pay mortgages and rents, but a wave of delinquencies is almost certainly coming.
To advocates of lockdowns, this is all “worth it” even though these sorts of economic stresses often lead to suicide, stress-induced disease, and death. But impoverishment, unemployment, and financial ruin are all merely “inconvenient,” as described by head lockdown advocate Anthony Fauci.
To someone who isn’t enamored of lockdowns, however, it is clear that millions of job losses are likely to worsen a variety of social ills, sometimes even resulting in violence. Moreover, the current job losses appear to be affecting the young and those who earn lower incomes most.
Lockdown advocates have attempted to avoid responsibility for all this by claiming that it is the pandemic itself that has caused the current economic disaster, and not the lockdowns. This is a baseless assertion. As has been shown, neither the pandemics of 1918 or 1958 led to the sorts of job losses and decline in economic growth that we’re now seeing.
The Lockdowns Destroyed Social Institutions
Another outcome of the lockdowns has been the destruction of American social institutions. These institutions include schools (both public and private), churches, coffee shops, bars, libraries, barbershops, and many others.
Lockdown advocates continue to claim that this is no big deal and insist that people just sit at home and “binge watch” television shows. But researchers have long pointed to the importance of these institutions in preserving peace and as a means of defusing social tensions and problems.
As much as lockdown advocates may wish that human beings could be reduced to creatures that do nothing more than work all day and watch television all night, the fact is that no society can long endure such conditions.
Human beings need what are known as “third places.” In a 2016 report, the Brookings Institution described what these places are:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
the most effective ones for building real community seem to be physical places where people can easily and routinely connect with each other: churches, parks, recreation centers, hairdressers, gyms and even fast-food restaurants. A recent newspaper article on McDonald’s found that for lower-income Americans, the twin arches are becoming almost the equivalent of the English “pub,” which after all is short for “public house”: groups of retirees meeting for coffee and talk, they might hold regular Bible study meetings there, and people treat the restaurant as an inexpensive hangout. Third places have a number of important community-building attributes. Depending on their location, social classes and backgrounds can be “leveled-out” in ways that are unfortunately rare these days, with people feeling they are treated as social equals. Informal conversation is the main activity and most important linking function. One commentator refers to third places as the “living room” of society.
The lockdown advocates, in a matter of a few days, cut people off from their third places and insisted, in many cases, that this would be the “new normal” for a year or more.
Yet, these third places cannot simply be shut down—and the public told to just forget about them indefinitely—without creating the potential for violence and other antisocial behavior.
Indeed, third places act as institutions that provide a type of social control that is key to a well-functioning society. In his trenchant book The Revolt of the Elites and the Betrayal of Democracy, historian and social critic Christopher Lasch described the importance of third places in communicating political and social values and conventions to young people, and in setting the bounds of acceptable behavior within the community. Lasch notes that these institutions are also important in defusing violent impulses among the young. Also of great importance is the fact that third places provide a means of social control that is voluntary and not a form of state coercion.
Writing in the 1990s, Lasch was lamenting the decline of third places, although he emphasized their importance even in their modern reduced form. Thanks to the lockdowns, however, these places have been crippled far beyond what Lasch might ever have imagined.
The Lockdowns Empowered the Police State
The lockdowns have created a situation in which millions of law-abiding citizens have been deemed criminals merely for seeking to make a living, leave their homes, or engage in peaceful trade.
In many areas, violations of the lockdown orders have been—or even still are, in many places—treated as criminal acts by police. This has greatly increased negative interactions between police and citizens who by no moral definition are criminals of any sort.
Many have already seen the stories: police arresting mothers for using playground equipment, police arresting business owners for using their own property, police beating people for the “crime” of standing on a sidewalk.
Complicating the issue is the apparent fact that police have not enforced social distancing edicts “uniformly.” Some have alleged, for example, that the NYPD has lopsidedly targeted nonwhites in enforcement:
of the 40 people arrested [for social distancing violations in Brooklyn between March 17 and May 4], 35 were African American, 4 were Hispanic and 1 was white. The arrests were made in neighborhoods—Brownsville, Bedford-Stuyvesant, Cypress Hills and East New York—which have large concentrations of blacks and Latinos.
This may or may not reflect the reality of the general situation, but the fact is that the lockdowns created the perception among many that this is just yet another case of law enforcement targeting certain populations over small-time violations.
Moreover, it is quite plausible that lower-income populations have more often been on the receiving end of state harassment in the name of social distancing. After all, compliance with lockdowns is something of a luxury reserved for higher-income, white-collar residents who can work from home and remain comfortable for long periods in their roomy houses. Working-class people and those with fewer resources are far more likely to need to find income and venture outside during lockdowns. This attracts the attention of police.
Lockdown advocates, apparently in their usual state of extreme naïvete, perhaps believed that further empowering police to violently enforce government decrees against petty infractions would not lead to any unfortunate side effects down the road. Yet criminalizing millions of Americans and subjecting them to heightened police harassment is not a recipe for social tranquility.
Worsening a Volatile Situation
Of course, my comments here should not be interpreted as making excuses for rioters. Smashing up the property of innocent small business owners—or worse, physically harming innocent people—is reprehensible in all circumstances. But this isn’t about making excuses. We’re talking about avoiding extreme and immoral government policies (i.e., police-enforced lockdowns) that remove those institutions and conditions which are important in helping minimize conflict.
Some may insist that the riots would have occurred no matter what, but it’s easy to see how the lockdowns made a bad situation worse. Yes, some of the rioters are lifelong thugs who are always on the lookout for new opportunities to steal and maim. But experience suggests that the pool of people willing to engage in riots is often larger during periods of mass unemployment than during other periods. In addition, those people who exist on the margins of criminality—the sorts of people for whom third places serve an important role in moderating their more antisocial tendencies—are more likely to be swept up in these events when third places are abolished. And, as we have seen, lockdowns also create more opportunities for police abuse that ignite riots of the sort we’ve seen in recent days.
It’s true the responsibility for the riots lies primarily with the rioters. But we cannot deny that policymakers fuel the flames of conflict when they outlaw jobs and destroy people’s social support systems by cutting them off from their communities. It’s also wise to not provoke people by pushing for widespread human rights violations and additional police harassment. But this is what lockdown advocates have done, and their imprudence should not be forgotten.Author:
Contact Ryan McMaken


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--In regards to retail, are things going to turn out much worse than expected? Personal proof/experien

In regards to retail, are things going to turn out much worse than expected? Personal proof/experience.

I wanted to draft this brief discussion to maybe shed some 💡 on the current situation .
As we know , COVID has impacted retail severely .
However , everyday we see stocks getting more and more green on hopes of a successful recovery .
I am here to tell you that it is not going to happen .
The damage isn ’ t going to realized until a couple of more months .
Don ’ t believe me ?
Let me provide a few examples .
Let me preface this by telling you that I am located in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early May .
Best Buy : Tried to go to here to buy a new TV and the store is still CLOSED .
Only online orders and pick up .
Correct me if I am wrong , but Best Buy relies heavily on foot traffic brick and mortar stores .
Stock is still somehow up 29 % this year !
This is in a state that is declared fully OPENED !
$ BBY puts .
Ikea : Wanted to purchase a new desk , but the store is completely CLOSED .
They only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pickup option on their website is BROKEN so I can ’ t even buy a desk there if I wanted to .
Let me remind you I am in a state that is FULLY open and still almost four months later the carnage continues .
Parking lots are hardly full , people are NOT going to the stores as much , malls closed .
I can only believe that other STORES and states are going to be hit much harder .
A swift recovery is false .
tl ; dr COVID impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than is being realized .
Stocks are green in hopes of a full recovery , but that just isn ’ t the reality .
This will be realized a few months down the road , especially when Jerome stops 🖨 .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Life-Observer
I wanted to draft this brief discussion to maybe shed some 💡 on the current situation. As we know, COVID has impacted retail severely. However, everyday we see stocks getting more and more green on hopes of a successful recovery. I am here to tell you that it is not going to happen. The damage isn’t going to realized until a couple of more months. Don’t believe me? Let me provide a few examples.
Let me preface this by telling you that I am located in a state that “fully” opened in early May.
Best Buy: Tried to go to here to buy a new TV and the store is still CLOSED. Only online orders and pick up. Correct me if I am wrong, but Best Buy relies heavily on foot traffic brick and mortar stores. Stock is still somehow up 29% this year! This is in a state that is declared fully OPENED! $BBY puts.
Ikea: Wanted to purchase a new desk, but the store is completely CLOSED. They only offer online order and pickup, but the pickup option on their website is BROKEN so I can’t even buy a desk there if I wanted to.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Let me remind you I am in a state that is FULLY open and still almost four months later the carnage continues. Parking lots are hardly full, people are NOT going to the stores as much, malls closed.
I can only believe that other STORES and states are going to be hit much harder. A swift recovery is false.
tl;dr COVID impact has a much bigger impact on retail than is being realized. Stocks are green in hopes of a full recovery, but that just isn’t the reality. This will be realized a few months down the road, especially when Jerome stops 🖨.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--The US Stock Market is more overvalued than in any other time in history according to the Buffett In

The US Stock Market is more overvalued than in any other time in history according to the Buffett Indicator.

The Ratio of the Market Capitalization or the entire stock market to GDP tells us that publicly traded companies are @ @ @ @ @ than the value of all goods and services in the US .

by Empire_Building101
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Ratio of the Market Capitalization or the entire stock market to GDP tells us that publicly traded companies are valued at 43.6% more than the value of all goods and services in the US.
Just to put things into perspective. US stocks very expensive after the recent rally. S&P 500 12 month forward multiple now at 22, S&P 500 24 month multiple at 24, highest since the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century. (via DB) pic.twitter.com/WtlO443Hiy — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 3, 2020
Yep… and the markets are looking forward to a decade of negative returns in the S&P 500. 😉 t.co/Jbf7oU52Uo pic.twitter.com/6fmLksGbD5 — John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) June 2, 2020
Short positions on S&P 500 futures are at the highest level in 5 years (and this was as of last week) h/t @daniburgz for chart pic.twitter.com/vLxUg2Ex20 — David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) June 2, 2020
It is remarkable that in retrospect everyone agrees that there was a tech bubble and then a housing bubble but looking at multiple valuation metrics/charts no one today sees a problem. Does no one in finance apply the scientific method of research and analysis?
Caution. pic.twitter.com/8DgnVE36U4 — Jack Scott (@JackPScott) June 2, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Survey: Most respondents believe global recession will last 3 quarters

As per @ OxfordEconomics ’ global risk survey , most respondents believe global recession will last 3 quarters @ SoberLook @ @ @ @ @ shutdown due to CV19… then they had to barricade due to looting and vandalism… 2020 @ @ @ @ @ FUBAR t.co/UCBsgsMX4Z

As per @OxfordEconomics ’ global risk survey, most respondents believe global recession will last 3 quarters @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/GzCfefwlhO
first they had to shutdown due to CV19…
then they had to barricade due to looting and vandalism…
2020 is so messed up = FUBAR t.co/UCBsgsMX4Z
— 𝘬𝘢𝘪 (@MacroTechnicals) June 3, 2020


Sovereign Defaults Unfolding

In the Gulf , states are facing bankruptcy .
Oman can hardly even pay his electricity bill .
The IMF has been now lobbying to defer emerging-market debt for one year .
We have been able to confirm from behind the curtain that more than 100 nations have asked the IMF for help .
The sheer stupidity of this coronavirus lockdown is beyond belief .
It seems no politician bothered to ask advice from anyone other than epidemiologists .
Neil Ferguson may have resigned for bad judgment , but the politicians who failed to consult other fields including economics should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amounts to the sad fact that politicians have set off a Monetary Crisis Cycle over the next two years , for they have seriously disrupted the entire world economy .
These emerging markets will not be able to pay their debts any time soon , especially when European politicians are trying to convert the economy to a Green New Deal & World Order .
This will devastate emerging market economies and set in motion massive sovereign debt defaults .
We could not have elected anyone more brain-dead than those holding office pushing this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy with their fake virus PLAN-DEMIC .

by Martin Armstrong
In the Gulf, states are facing bankruptcy. Oman can hardly even pay his electricity bill. The IMF has been now lobbying to defer emerging-market debt for one year. We have been able to confirm from behind the curtain that more than 100 nations have asked the IMF for help. The sheer stupidity of this coronavirus lockdown is beyond belief. It seems no politician bothered to ask advice from anyone other than epidemiologists. Neil Ferguson may have resigned for bad judgment, but the politicians who failed to consult other fields including economics should resign.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The lack of common sense amounts to the sad fact that politicians have set off a Monetary Crisis Cycle over the next two years, for they have seriously disrupted the entire world economy. These emerging markets will not be able to pay their debts any time soon, especially when European politicians are trying to convert the economy to a Green New Deal & World Order. This will devastate emerging market economies and set in motion massive sovereign debt defaults. We could not have elected anyone more brain-dead than those holding office pushing this agenda after they wiped out the world economy with their fake virus PLAN-DEMIC.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--SELCO: Mob Mentality and the TRUTH About Protests

When highly organized force with a mission , resources , a plan , and the will go to finish a task usually there is no reasoning with that force , or explaining that you are trying just to prove some point , or you are just filming , taking selfies or holding a cardboard sign .
When that force starts to sweep the street the difference between you ( holding cardboard sign ) and the guy next to you who is looting is very small for that force .
Sometimes that difference is actually invisible .
Controlling the protest , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are on the verge of becoming violent is a very “ fluid ” task , and once when orders are given you are kinda all the same .
You are all “ possible threat ” to them , training goes like that .
It can not be different .
The “ light em up ” video sums up a huge amount of things , all of them important for prepping and survival .
Now , about this video alone the whole article can be written , lamenting and philosophizing about freedom , constitutional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you could do that , not me ) and discussing what is freedom about and what you have right to do on your own piece of land ( property , house ) .
( Daisy wrote that here . )
I ’ ll be short about this video , and I ’ ll just say : “ FFS , when you see the whole bunch of armed , organized guys , clearly on the mission , please forget everything and just get the f*ck out of there !
” Then a day later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guys because they forbid you to be on your own property .
It ’ s a shock to see how fast police got violent .
After watching a whole bunch of videos the last few days there are several conclusions there .
The most important one is that people are kinda shocked how violent the police got , and how fast and arbitrarily police go and beat people up , You have to change your mindset to survive in situations like this .
On Thursday I am having a webinar to talk about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Folks , in a situation like this , whoever stands in front of the force when order is given is the SAME , and usually will be dealt with same way .
You can try to explain to the cop that you are “ just ( choose the word ) ” , but nobody listens in that situation .
Another thing is that most folks also do not realize and understand the mentality of a mob .
The word MOB here does not necessarily have to be negative – it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people .
So when you find yourself in a big group of people doing something wild , let ’ s say you are very angry together with a bunch of people because of something , and you are all together breaking display windows , for example , it just might give you a temporary feeling of being protected , because you are in a mass of people .
It ’ s like you are “ not visible ” .
That feeling can push you more , bit by bit , and you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , more dangerous things , for example , something really threatening .
You may not even get it – you maybe not gon na see it how risky it is .
In a large group , individuals often feel the urge to do stuff that they would never do it otherwise .
Sometimes those things and actions can be very stupid .
You can not ever be prepared what the individual next to you in groups like this can suddenly do , where that action may lead , and , how dangerous it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be in a group of perfectly peaceful protesters with signs , and the next second all hell can happen because of the action of one man from the group .
Now take that , and take all above mentioned about an organized force having a task and you should conclude how easily you could get killed by that force .
You can ’ t treat these times like normal times .
What did that guy expect to do with the rifle ?
Start a revolution ?
Just wanted to look cool in front @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take that rifle home ?
Was he aware of what kind of target he made of himself and how lucky he was ?
My opinion is that big mistakes are made when common folks mix up the timing and they act like they are going through some normal time event .
What I am trying to say here is that there are two sides of this event , right and wrong , I think most of the folks would agree that killing a man who is not resisting is murder and that murderers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear what is there right and what is wrong .
There is also a “ survival ” side of the whole story , which says “ use common sense ” , and very often also says “ do not be there ” , or simply “ stay safe ” .
The survival side of the story does not have anything to do with right and wrong , It is only about what makes sense .
These events are clearly something that should “ switch ” you into survival mode , and survival mode @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hope these events will calm down soon .
But it is possible they are just the “ tip of the iceberg ” , and it is not something new .
I have been involved in several protests , violent ones .
I was very active in the protest that sparked ( or was the intro ) to the war here years ago .
Some protests change things , others do not .
The fact is that almost all violent protests usually hurt people who are completely innocent and do not have anything to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Generally speaking , usually , guys who loot have the most to gain during violent protests .
Then again , watching how the situation goes there , and how “ both sides ” are actually bringing things to higher ( and sharper ) level hopes that this will calm soon and without new victims pretty much fade away .
Probably it will be worse before it gets better .
Somewhere in the avalanche of videos about protests and violence there , I saw one or two , about Americans , who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defend for shops from looters .
I liked that a lot .
For me as a “ non-American , ” it is what the US is about .
Let ’ s hope stuff like these protests will not be used for taking away that right .
Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege , without electricity , running water , or food distribution .
In his online works , he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions .
He reviews what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tells you the hard lessons he learned , and shares how he prepares today .
He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war .
Regardless of what happens , chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did .
But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months .
• Read more of Selco ’ s articles here .
• Buy his best-selling paperbacks , SHTF Survival Stories and The Dark Secrets of Survival here .
• Take advantage of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by signing up for his online courses SHTF Survival Boot Camp and learn the inside story of what it was really like when the SHTF with his online course One Year in Hell .
• You can donate directly to Selco at www.paypal.me/SHTFschool ( use the dropdown arrow to select USD as the currency ) Real survival is not romantic or idealistic .
It is brutal , hard and unfair .
Let Selco take you into that world .

by Selco Begovic
When highly organized force with a mission, resources, a plan, and the will go to finish a task usually there is no reasoning with that force, or explaining that you are trying just to prove some point, or you are just filming, taking selfies or holding a cardboard sign. When that force starts to sweep the street the difference between you (holding cardboard sign) and the guy next to you who is looting is very small for that force. Sometimes that difference is actually invisible.
Controlling the protest, riots, or mass of people who are on the verge of becoming violent is a very “fluid” task, and once when orders are given you are kinda all the same.
You are all “possible threat” to them, training goes like that. It cannot be different.
The “light em up” video sums up a huge amount of things, all of them important for prepping and survival.
Now, about this video alone the whole article can be written, lamenting and philosophizing about freedom, constitutional rights, maybe even founding fathers (you could do that, not me) and discussing what is freedom about and what you have right to do on your own piece of land (property, house). (Daisy wrote that here.)
I’ll be short about this video, and I’ll just say: “FFS, when you see the whole bunch of armed, organized guys, clearly on the mission, please forget everything and just get the f*ck out of there!” Then a day later, think about how to sue those guys because they forbid you to be on your own property.
It’s a shock to see how fast police got violent.
After watching a whole bunch of videos the last few days there are several conclusions there. The most important one is that people are kinda shocked how violent the police got, and how fast and arbitrarily police go and beat people up, You have to change your mindset to survive in situations like this. On Thursday I am having a webinar to talk about my experience with civil unrest and violence.
Folks, in a situation like this, whoever stands in front of the force when order is given is the SAME, and usually will be dealt with same way.
You can try to explain to the cop that you are “just (choose the word)”, but nobody listens in that situation.
I watched this unfold last night. Go to my IG page for the FULL VIDEO and more details (it’s too long for Twitter). Instagram: @Brittmtv pic.twitter.com/ajwWCCtwUJ — Brittany Miller (@Brittm_tv) May 31, 2020
Understanding mob mentality
Another thing is that most folks also do not realize and understand the mentality of a mob. The word MOB here does not necessarily have to be negative – it’s just a word for a big group of people. So when you find yourself in a big group of people doing something wild, let’s say you are very angry together with a bunch of people because of something, and you are all together breaking display windows, for example, it just might give you a temporary feeling of being protected, because you are in a mass of people. It’s like you are “not visible”.
That feeling can push you more, bit by bit, and you might decide to do more provocative things, more dangerous things, for example, something really threatening. You may not even get it – you maybe not gonna see it how risky it is.
In a large group, individuals often feel the urge to do stuff that they would never do it otherwise. Sometimes those things and actions can be very stupid. You can not ever be prepared what the individual next to you in groups like this can suddenly do, where that action may lead, and, how dangerous it might be.
You can one moment be in a group of perfectly peaceful protesters with signs, and the next second all hell can happen because of the action of one man from the group.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Now take that, and take all above mentioned about an organized force having a task and you should conclude how easily you could get killed by that force.
You can’t treat these times like normal times.
What did that guy expect to do with the rifle? Start a revolution? Just wanted to look cool in front of his friends? He wanted to take that rifle home? Was he aware of what kind of target he made of himself and how lucky he was?
My opinion is that big mistakes are made when common folks mix up the timing and they act like they are going through some normal time event.
What I am trying to say here is that there are two sides of this event, right and wrong, I think most of the folks would agree that killing a man who is not resisting is murder and that murderers have to be punished. It is clear what is there right and what is wrong.
There is also a “survival” side of the whole story, which says “use common sense”, and very often also says “do not be there”, or simply “stay safe”. The survival side of the story does not have anything to do with right and wrong, It is only about what makes sense.
These events are clearly something that should “switch” you into survival mode, and survival mode is just that: survival.
The truth about protests
I hope these events will calm down soon. But it is possible they are just the “tip of the iceberg”, and it is not something new. I have been involved in several protests, violent ones. I was very active in the protest that sparked (or was the intro) to the war here years ago. Some protests change things, others do not. The fact is that almost all violent protests usually hurt people who are completely innocent and do not have anything to do with the reason for the protest.
Generally speaking, usually, guys who loot have the most to gain during violent protests.
Then again, watching how the situation goes there, and how “both sides” are actually bringing things to higher (and sharper) level hopes that this will calm soon and without new victims pretty much fade away.
Probably it will be worse before it gets better.
Somewhere in the avalanche of videos about protests and violence there, I saw one or two, about Americans, who are practicing their right to carry weapons and defend for shops from looters. I liked that a lot. For me as a “non-American,” it is what the US is about.
Let’s hope stuff like these protests will not be used for taking away that right.
About Selco:
Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution.
In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless of what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months.
Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-03--Savage. Police officers faked kneeling to draw rioters in close and get them to kneel before hitting

Savage .
Police officers faked kneeling to draw rioters in close and get them to kneel before hitting them with @ @ @ @ @ .
pic.twitter.com/7cA4BGjfIR

Savage. Police officers faked kneeling to draw rioters in close and get them to kneel before hitting them with tear gas (allegedly). pic.twitter.com/7cA4BGjfIR
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 3, 2020