investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Consumer Faces A Major Problem

Consumer Faces A Major Problem

On the one hand , the consumer had deleveraged this past economic cycle .
However , many people were still hurting .
The bottom 50 % which don ’ t own stocks are mostly struggling .
In the recent expansion there was much less bad housing debt compared to the prior cycle .
The 2000s was probably the worst period for consumers ’ balance sheets ever .
The last cycle showed great strides near the end when there was full employment and low inflation .
Even still , people were struggling .
The chart above shows a survey before this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans .
As you can see , 15 % of Americans were financially vulnerable .
This category is reached if a person reports healthy outcomes in none or few of the 8 indicators .
55 % were financially coping which means they gave better answers in the survey .
Just 28 % of Americans were financially stable .
That ’ s horrible .
The best scores were those 65 or older which had an average of 75 .
Those with less than a high school diploma got a 50 and those with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , those making $ 30,000 or less had a 51 and those making 6 figures or more had a 77 .
As we discussed in our article on the April PCE report , income growth hit a record high .
The chart below details how that happened in nominal terms .
It ’ s no surprise proprietor ’ s income and compensation were huge negatives because the economy was shut down and there was double digit unemployment .
The $ 1,200 one-time benefit was a major positive for households .
If a household @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it received $ 3,400 .
The U.S. benefits package has been wildly criticized for its scope and effectiveness because that generates attention and people are hurting .
On the one hand , the speed at which the checks were given out and the handling of unemployment claims was poor .
It ’ s no surprise that occurred because this is a unique period in history where there was extreme demand for unemployment insurance .
Plus , with PUAs , a new category of claims was filed .
However , the size of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems like the rich made out well with the stock market rising , but the government certainly helped those who needed it .
Remember , 68 % of people got paid more from unemployment benefits than they did from working .
Adding in the $ 1,200 and $ 500 checks also helped .
The question is obviously , what ’ s to come because these benefits are rolling off and people might not be getting their jobs back quickly enough .
We will discuss that next .
First , let ’ s look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prior point about the ineffectiveness of unemployment benefits going out .
As you can see , 1/3rd of unemployment insurance and PUA benefits have yet to be paid .
This needs to happen soon .
Remember , many people weren ’ t in good financial shape before this recession .
The stock market rallied 11 times in 14 days based on the notion that this recovery is in the bag .
Stocks did so well that there was a rotation into cyclicals like industrials , while healthcare and cloud stocks never sold off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t see a return to normal soon .
It must seem very great to own a cloud stock after that major run .
Sure , some have underperformed , but they never sold off on the notion that the economy is going back to normal even though the cyclicals rallied on that premise .
This market is ignoring risk and going up on hope .
The stock market either assumes everyone will get their jobs back soon or that the government will pass another stimulus package .
As of today , consumers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can see from the chart below , there is about to be a -9 % impact on incomes if the tax rebates aren ’ t renewed .
There is about to be a -5 % impact if the extra $ 600 in unemployment benefits per week aren ’ t renewed .
The GOP doesn ’ t want to renew them .
To be clear , compensation growth will be strong on a monthly basis this spring and yearly growth will get less bad as people get their jobs back .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close to fully recovered by August .
Considering the fact that stocks have sold off for comparatively silly issues like the debt ceiling , it ’ s amazing that stocks are assuming this will work out fine .
Many consumers were in bad shape before the recession hit .
The government helped consumers so much in April that income growth hit a record high .
That being said , the payouts of benefits have been delayed .
A consumer benefit cliff is coming if Congress doesn ’ t act .
It seems unlikely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back by the end of July .

by UPFINA
On the one hand, the consumer had deleveraged this past economic cycle. However, many people were still hurting. The bottom 50% which don’t own stocks are mostly struggling. In the recent expansion there was much less bad housing debt compared to the prior cycle. The 2000s was probably the worst period for consumers’ balance sheets ever. The last cycle showed great strides near the end when there was full employment and low inflation. Even still, people were struggling.
Even prior to COVID-19, only about 28% of U.S. adults were financially healthy. Here are 5 ways to improve your financial wellness during a crisis: t.co/QyvEKAJRYf pic.twitter.com/9JG99qZxrC — Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) June 3, 2020
The chart above shows a survey before this recession which details the financial health of Americans. As you can see, 15% of Americans were financially vulnerable. This category is reached if a person reports healthy outcomes in none or few of the 8 indicators. 55% were financially coping which means they gave better answers in the survey. Just 28% of Americans were financially stable. That’s horrible. The best scores were those 65 or older which had an average of 75. Those with less than a high school diploma got a 50 and those with a college degree got a 74. Similarly, those making $30,000 or less had a 51 and those making 6 figures or more had a 77.
Breakdown Of Massive April Income Gain
As we discussed in our article on the April PCE report, income growth hit a record high. The chart below details how that happened in nominal terms. It’s no surprise proprietor’s income and compensation were huge negatives because the economy was shut down and there was double digit unemployment. The $1,200 one-time benefit was a major positive for households. If a household had 2 adults and 2 children, it received $3,400.
Late Benefits
The U.S. benefits package has been wildly criticized for its scope and effectiveness because that generates attention and people are hurting. On the one hand, the speed at which the checks were given out and the handling of unemployment claims was poor. It’s no surprise that occurred because this is a unique period in history where there was extreme demand for unemployment insurance. Plus, with PUAs, a new category of claims was filed. However, the size of the package was solid.
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Obviously, it seems like the rich made out well with the stock market rising, but the government certainly helped those who needed it. Remember, 68% of people got paid more from unemployment benefits than they did from working. Adding in the $1,200 and $500 checks also helped. The question is obviously, what’s to come because these benefits are rolling off and people might not be getting their jobs back quickly enough. We will discuss that next. First, let’s look at the chart below which supports the prior point about the ineffectiveness of unemployment benefits going out. As you can see, 1/3rd of unemployment insurance and PUA benefits have yet to be paid. This needs to happen soon. Remember, many people weren’t in good financial shape before this recession.
The Consumer Cliff
The stock market rallied 11 times in 14 days based on the notion that this recovery is in the bag. Stocks did so well that there was a rotation into cyclicals like industrials, while healthcare and cloud stocks never sold off even though they outperformed when investors didn’t see a return to normal soon. It must seem very great to own a cloud stock after that major run. Sure, some have underperformed, but they never sold off on the notion that the economy is going back to normal even though the cyclicals rallied on that premise. This market is ignoring risk and going up on hope.
The stock market either assumes everyone will get their jobs back soon or that the government will pass another stimulus package. As of today, consumers are faced with a cliff. As you can see from the chart below, there is about to be a -9% impact on incomes if the tax rebates aren’t renewed.
There is about to be a -5% impact if the extra $600 in unemployment benefits per week aren’t renewed. The GOP doesn’t want to renew them. To be clear, compensation growth will be strong on a monthly basis this spring and yearly growth will get less bad as people get their jobs back. However, the labor market won’t be close to fully recovered by August. Considering the fact that stocks have sold off for comparatively silly issues like the debt ceiling, it’s amazing that stocks are assuming this will work out fine.
Conclusion
Many consumers were in bad shape before the recession hit. The government helped consumers so much in April that income growth hit a record high. That being said, the payouts of benefits have been delayed. A consumer benefit cliff is coming if Congress doesn’t act. It seems unlikely that most people will get their jobs back by the end of July.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--OMFG – this is the level of  CNBC’s analysis. It’s beyond laughable they published this chart. Is it

OMFG – this is the level of  CNBC’s analysis. It’s beyond laughable they published this chart. Is it April 1st? Do they even understand WHY this chart is so misleading?

OMFG – this is the level of @ cnbc ’ s analysis .
It ’ s beyond laughable they published @ @ @ @ @ April 1st ?
Do they even understand WHY this chart is so misleading ?
t.co/q78iON80De

OMFG – this is the level of @cnbc’s analysis. It’s beyond laughable they published this chart. Is it April 1st? Do they even understand WHY this chart is so misleading? t.co/q78iON80De
— Dr. Chris Dark (@Darky999) June 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--AMC Discussion and Potential Lotto Plays

Let ’ s get this straight , I have no fucking idea what will actually happen .
But let ’ s look at the facts .
4/19 – AMC raises 500 million in debt to boost cash – ” For now , the world ’ s largest movie theater said its current cash situation was sufficient to withstand a global suspension of operations until a partial potential reopening of its locations in July .
As of March 31 , AMC had a cash balance of $ 299.8 million , including borrowings in March 2020 of $ 215 million under its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facility due 2024 and the £89.2 million from its £100 million revolving credit facility due 2022.
” 5/11 – Rumors of Amazon acquisition start circulating .
Investors don ’ t realize that the rumor source , Daily Wire , made a mistake between AMC and AMCX ( the cable channel ) .
The inefficient market theory holds the stock up as investors literally don ’ t care .
5/12 – AMC ’ s fuckin chief human resource officer exercises an option to obtain 14,852 shares at $ 5.12 , totaling approximately $ 76,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position down , straight out purchasing 16,667 shares at approximately $ 76,000 .
6/3 – AMC publically announces possible going concern – ” it has “ substantial doubts ” about its ability to keep running its business for a “ reasonable period of time ” due to the COVID-19 impact.
” “ The firm is asking investors to take a haircut ranging from about 47 to 51 cents on the dollar , depending on the bond issue and when investors turn in their securities .
Investors would receive new 12 % second-lien secured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in either cash or payment-in-kind through additional debt .
The early deadline , with more favorable terms for investors , is 5 p.m. in New York on June 16 .
The final deadline is 11:59 p.m. on June 30″ 6/4 – AMC lenders instantly lawyer up , probably hinting that they will not take any kind of haircut .
My Thoughts : AMC earnings reports on 6/9 .
Obviously going to be bad… but that is not what I am pondering here .
I have a feeling that AMC doesn ’ t have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fully .
Even if they do , it is a Movie theater .
Their capacity will be cut significantly .
As well , being the middle of summer and since everyone has been stuck inside for months , who the fuck wants to go see a movie .
Travel , food , and other social stocks should be rallying in this , not a movie company .
Have any of you even heard of any good movies coming out ?
Or for that matter , any movies that have begun film production for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further than that , will people ever look at movie theaters the same ?
Personally , I ’ m not a huge fan unless there is a specific movie ( like the next up coming Matrix ) that I want to see .
I will wait for “ DVD ” release .
Put call ratio for every date from now to 7/2 are all well above 1.0 .
The market is bearish as fuck on AMC .
The critical dates mentioned above are 6/16 and 6/30 , both dates when lenders have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do you guys think ?
I ’ m gon na go full-blown retard on some date unless any of you have good counter-arguments .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by Endura_GW2
Let’s get this straight, I have no fucking idea what will actually happen. But let’s look at the facts.
4/11 – AMC CEO buys 250,000 shares $2.60 each, totaling approximately $650,000.
4/19 – AMC raises 500 million in debt to boost cash – ” For now, the world’s largest movie theater said its current cash situation was sufficient to withstand a global suspension of operations until a partial potential reopening of its locations in July. As of March 31, AMC had a cash balance of $299.8 million, including borrowings in March 2020 of $215 million under its $225 million senior secured revolving credit facility due 2024 and the £89.2 million from its £100 million revolving credit facility due 2022.”
5/11 – Rumors of Amazon acquisition start circulating. Investors don’t realize that the rumor source, Daily Wire, made a mistake between AMC and AMCX (the cable channel). The inefficient market theory holds the stock up as investors literally don’t care.
5/12 – AMC’s fuckin chief human resource officer exercises an option to obtain 14,852 shares at $5.12, totaling approximately $76,000.
5/20 – HR officer averages her position down, straight out purchasing 16,667 shares at approximately $76,000.
5/29 – Analyst consensus is predicting a -42% downside.
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6/3 – AMC publically announces possible going concern – ” it has “substantial doubts” about its ability to keep running its business for a “reasonable period of time” due to the COVID-19 impact.”
“The firm is asking investors to take a haircut ranging from about 47 to 51 cents on the dollar, depending on the bond issue and when investors turn in their securities. Investors would receive new 12% second-lien secured notes due 2026 that could pay interest in either cash or payment-in-kind through additional debt.
The early deadline, with more favorable terms for investors, is 5 p.m. in New York on June 16. The final deadline is 11:59 p.m. on June 30″
6/4 – AMC lenders instantly lawyer up, probably hinting that they will not take any kind of haircut.
My Thoughts: AMC earnings reports on 6/9. Obviously going to be bad… but that is not what I am pondering here. I have a feeling that AMC doesn’t have enough money to even re-open their theaters fully. Even if they do, it is a Movie theater. Their capacity will be cut significantly. As well, being the middle of summer and since everyone has been stuck inside for months, who the fuck wants to go see a movie. Travel, food, and other social stocks should be rallying in this, not a movie company. Have any of you even heard of any good movies coming out? Or for that matter, any movies that have begun film production for the next cycle of movies? Even further than that, will people ever look at movie theaters the same? Personally, I’m not a huge fan unless there is a specific movie (like the next up coming Matrix) that I want to see. I will wait for “DVD” release.
Put call ratio for every date from now to 7/2 are all well above 1.0. The market is bearish as fuck on AMC. The critical dates mentioned above are 6/16 and 6/30, both dates when lenders have to accept or decline the haircut.
What do you guys think? I’m gonna go full-blown retard on some date unless any of you have good counter-arguments.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Global trade was falling off a cliff long before Covid-19 hit the world. Wall Street is far from con

Global trade was falling off a cliff long before Covid-19 hit the world. Wall Street is far from confident the Fed can pull it off.

Global trade was falling off a cliff looooooong before Covid-19 hit the world. H/T @themarketear pic.twitter.com/A27lQ6Wtcx — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) June 6, 2020
The Fed is about to launch a $600 billion gambit to save swaths of U.S. businesses and tens of millions of jobs. Wall Street is far from confident the Fed can pull it off t.co/uHziVgH9zZ — Bloomberg Markets (@markets) June 6, 2020
MOST HOUSEHOLDS ARE NEAR BROKE pic.twitter.com/dtgbOJKORQ — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 6, 2020
"The American Bankruptcy Institute said Thursday that U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcies in May ballooned by 48% compared to a year ago."t.co/AuAWeC2eE1 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 6, 2020
The global COVID-19 pandemic is NOT OVER. IT IS ACCELERATING: Unprecedented 130.4k new positive tests on June 3.
In Europe, at least, you could say it is slowing.
In US it is NOT.
In both Lat Am and Asia it is accelerating alarmingly! t.co/XOKFI1YYVb pic.twitter.com/SeSDXgfcuy — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Warren Buffett might still be right about the airlines

“ In the short run , the market is a voting machine , but , in the long run , it is a weighing machine ” -Benjamin Graham Warren Buffett has taken some heat recently over his decision to sell all of his airline stocks near their lowest point .
Amid investor optimism for the return of “ normal ” travel behavior , airline stock prices took flight , so to speak , as a primary beneficiary of this exuberance .
This has every investor with a Robinhood account sitting on his couch thinking he is smarter than perhaps the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is he ?
• Warren Buffett is not a short-term swing trader , he is a long-term , buy-and-hold investor .
He looks at the prospects of a company 20 to 30 years down the road , not 2-3 months • Airlines represented a significant , but relatively small portion of Berkshire Hathaway ’ s portfolio .
Taking a loss on an industry that is in turmoil for the chance to redeploy in another industry with clearer skies ahead is more in line with the investing philosophy that made him a success • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Well , people won ’ t stop flying ” , I ’ ll buy AAL , UAL , and DAL .
While that is certainly true in the broad sense , think about the practical sense .
Airlines need to squeeze every dollar out of every flight to remain profitable .
Under the “ new normal ” , not only might the incredibly important Middle Seat be in jeopardy , but the ridiculously profitable Business Class seat is also going to see massive declines as more and more business is conducted remotely .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ double-digit millions of dollars PER DAY , many major U.S. airlines are only in business due to federal government bailout money — one of the conditions of which was that they keep paying their employees that are not doing much flying ( or revenue generation ) these days .
• While it is a near certainty that “ people won ’ t stop flying ” , there is no certainty about who will be doing the flying .
When the bailout money is gone , the cash is depleted , and the revenues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be , a company goes bankrupt .
It is entirely possible that one or even two of the major U.S. airline carriers never get their head above water again .
Which ones ?
( *Casually glances at American and United* ) I ’ m not sure , BUT , what I am sure about , is that Warren Buffett has access to way more information about the companies he invests in than you or me .
• Last Thursday , while AAL stock was almost doubling , 14 of its top officers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now , ask yourself — why would anyone in their right mind in a leadership role at a prominent U.S. company with a huge salary and comfy corner office voluntarily leave that company and deny themselves the personal glory of being part of a turnaround story ?
My advice : Take your profits now and buy yourself something nice — like stock in a company that actually has massive future growth and profit potential .
And do not think that you are smarter than Warren Buffett .
Finally , they are a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infographics offer a fun insight into what makes the Oracle of Omaha tick : Part Five : Wisdom from The Oracle

by bestrongbelieve
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but, in the long run, it is a weighing machine” -Benjamin Graham
Warren Buffett has taken some heat recently over his decision to sell all of his airline stocks near their lowest point. Amid investor optimism for the return of “normal” travel behavior, airline stock prices took flight, so to speak, as a primary beneficiary of this exuberance. This has every investor with a Robinhood account sitting on his couch thinking he is smarter than perhaps the greatest investor of our time. But is he?
Warren Buffett is not a short-term swing trader, he is a long-term, buy-and-hold investor. He looks at the prospects of a company 20 to 30 years down the road, not 2-3 months
Airlines represented a significant, but relatively small portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio. Taking a loss on an industry that is in turmoil for the chance to redeploy in another industry with clearer skies ahead is more in line with the investing philosophy that made him a success
Armchair investors think to themselves, “Well, people won’t stop flying”, I’ll buy AAL, UAL, and DAL. While that is certainly true in the broad sense, think about the practical sense. Airlines need to squeeze every dollar out of every flight to remain profitable. Under the “new normal”, not only might the incredibly important Middle Seat be in jeopardy, but the ridiculously profitable Business Class seat is also going to see massive declines as more and more business is conducted remotely.
With cash burn rates in the double-digit millions of dollars PER DAY, many major U.S. airlines are only in business due to federal government bailout money — one of the conditions of which was that they keep paying their employees that are not doing much flying (or revenue generation) these days.
While it is a near certainty that “people won’t stop flying”, there is no certainty about who will be doing the flying. When the bailout money is gone, the cash is depleted, and the revenues are a fraction of where they need to be, a company goes bankrupt. It is entirely possible that one or even two of the major U.S. airline carriers never get their head above water again. Which ones? (*Casually glances at American and United*) I’m not sure, BUT, what I am sure about, is that Warren Buffett has access to way more information about the companies he invests in than you or me.
Last Thursday, while AAL stock was almost doubling, 14 of its top officers VOLUNTARILY took buyouts to leave the company. Now, ask yourself — why would anyone in their right mind in a leadership role at a prominent U.S. company with a huge salary and comfy corner office voluntarily leave that company and deny themselves the personal glory of being part of a turnaround story?
My advice: Take your profits now and buy yourself something nice — like stock in a company that actually has massive future growth and profit potential. And do not think that you are smarter than Warren Buffett.

Finally, they are a few years old, but these nifty infographics offer a fun insight into what makes the Oracle of Omaha tick:
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Part One: The Early Years
Part Two: Inside Buffett’s Brain
Part Three: The Warren Buffett Empire
Part Four: Buffett’s Biggest Wins and Fails
Part Five: Wisdom from The Oracle


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--The mainstream media makes everything into right vs left… it’s all divide and conquer.

I voted for Obama in 2008 .
My wife at the time went to a neighboring State to campaign .
We cried when Obama was elected because we saw it as a watershed moment in US history , which in fact it was .
I grew up with openly racist parents and it was and remains my hope to live in a world of equality .
This was a step forward , or so we thought .
Today I feel like I was lied to in so many ways… but that has nothing to do with Black or White.. is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , which I did not see at the time .
Members of both parties have signed onto this agenda – and literally the only thing that stands in the way is our Nationalist president .
You don ’ t have to like him , but it ’ s not left vs right , it ’ s Globalism vs Nationalism .
Trump is pushing the US away from the Globalist technocracy… NATO , The WHO , weaponized immigration .
I want my kids to inherit a US with a functioning constitution .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to jail in the wake of the GFC under Holder ’ s dept .
of justice .
We still live with the remains of that system – a system where Flynn can be railroaded for nothing and made to plead guilty by dirty cops threatening to pull his son into the mess .
I said we look for truth here.. well here ’ s a big giant dose of truth offered by lawyer John Titus .
If this doesn ’ t wake you up as to the degradation of the rule of law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then you need more serious deprogramming than I am capable of providing… and remember..
I voted for Obama .
The Veneer of Justice in a Kingdom of Crime If you understand how the deep state works , you can see what they are setting up next .
The DC mayor is pulling back her police from the White House , kicking the National Guard out of DC hotels , and asking that the barriers be moved back in closer to the White House so protesters can get closer .
It ’ s almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where protesters finally breach the barriers and start rushing the White House , where surely mass carnage will ensue .
This video will then play on an endless loop on CNN and CNBC .

by Jim H
I voted for Obama in 2008. My wife at the time went to a neighboring State to campaign. We cried when Obama was elected because we saw it as a watershed moment in US history, which in fact it was. I grew up with openly racist parents and it was and remains my hope to live in a world of equality. This was a step forward, or so we thought.
Today I feel like I was lied to in so many ways… but that has nothing to do with Black or White.. is about the Globalist agenda to destroy our country, which I did not see at the time. Members of both parties have signed onto this agenda – and literally the only thing that stands in the way is our Nationalist president. You don’t have to like him, but it’s not left vs right, it’s Globalism vs Nationalism. Trump is pushing the US away from the Globalist technocracy… NATO, The WHO, weaponized immigration. I want my kids to inherit a US with a functioning constitution. As someone said earlier, ZERO bankers went to jail in the wake of the GFC under Holder’s dept. of justice. We still live with the remains of that system – a system where Flynn can be railroaded for nothing and made to plead guilty by dirty cops threatening to pull his son into the mess.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I said we look for truth here.. well here’s a big giant dose of truth offered by lawyer John Titus. If this doesn’t wake you up as to the degradation of the rule of law in our country under the Obama admin… then you need more serious deprogramming than I am capable of providing… and remember.. I voted for Obama.
The Veneer of Justice in a Kingdom of Crime
If you understand how the deep state works, you can see what they are setting up next. The DC mayor is pulling back her police from the White House, kicking the National Guard out of DC hotels, and asking that the barriers be moved back in closer to the White House so protesters can get closer. It’s almost like somebody wants to create that scene where protesters finally breach the barriers and start rushing the White House, where surely mass carnage will ensue. This video will then play on an endless loop on CNN and CNBC.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--This is stunning.  At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 m

This is stunning.  At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 million call contracts. This week, they bought 12.1 million. Bubbly all around.

This is stunning. At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 million call contracts. This week, they bought 12.1 million. Watch what people do, not what they say. They're full-bore bullish, on steroids. pic.twitter.com/T1v74xq1Of — SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) June 6, 2020
Bubbly all around. Highest % of members above 70 RSI since Volmageddon. Highest number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average in 2 decades. Strongest 50-day rally in history. Record valuations across the board — large, mid & small caps. pic.twitter.com/wrKBIBkaAT — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 5, 2020
sentiment check: friend texting to ask if he should buy $HTZ shares — Jamie Powell (@ajb_powell) June 5, 2020
"The gap between fantasy and reality is even greater than it was in the late 1990s just before the t.co/5yYRocfrNZ bust that saw stock valuations collapse by 50%, to turn the fictitious into the real."@EricRosengren @RobSKaplan @neelkashkari @marydalyecon @RaphaelBostic pic.twitter.com/0jSRVqgVUK — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) June 6, 2020
Leading up to 2008, we had garbage mortgage backed securities (derivatives) that were packaged into additional derivatives & yet again into the dreaded CDO-squared. Today, we have fake news headlines packaged into layers of hopes just used as cover for a mania funded by the Fed. — Brad Huston (@BradHuston) June 6, 2020
"I'll let you know when we've pushed it too far…" pic.twitter.com/V4XR9HKsFS — Jedimarkus (@jedimarkus77) June 5, 2020
“There’s a lot of denial here, as there was in the 1930s…The actions the government took were not adequate to the scope of the problem, yet they were very quick to say there had been a turnaround.” t.co/JnmVpmitD2 — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 6, 2020
The Fed is nothing more than a propaganda machine, using announcement effect to force people in to buy risk assets and help prop up our corporate socialist economy that cares little for workers. They need people to spend money they don’t have for the eco to “grow.” There is no.. — craig shapiro (@ces921) June 6, 2020
Microsoft was a great company in 1999. $MSFT was still a great company in 2017 – it would take you 18 years for you to break even if you bought it in 1999. Valuation, the price you pay matters even for a great company. pic.twitter.com/Z0f8jwz2A5 — Vitaliy Katsenelson (@vitaliyk) June 5, 2020
DO SMALL BUSINESS CLOSURES LOOK V SHAPED? pic.twitter.com/ANKMHoeNmM — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 4, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Is the 39 Year Treasury Bond Bull Market Over?

This chart should look familiar , as I ’ ve shared and updated it a few times to alert clients @ @ @ @ @ the 10 Year US Treasury Yield Chart… inverted .
As you know , bond yields @ @ @ @ @ directions .
So this is a way to analyze and think about bonds .
And @ @ @ @ @ out before , inverted charts can also reduce bias .
As you can see , @ @ @ @ @ reversal pattern in decades .
When inverted ( as this chart is ) , yields @ @ @ @ @ So this is action is very bearish for bond prices on a long-term historical basis @ @ @ @ @ bull market in bonds be over ?
Sure looks like it .
Stay tuned !

by Kimble Charting
10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield “inverted” Chart
This chart should look familiar, as I’ve shared and updated it a few times to alert clients and readers.
It is the 10 Year US Treasury Yield Chart… inverted.
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As you know, bond yields and price move in opposite directions. So this is a way to analyze and think about bonds. And as I’ve pointed out before, inverted charts can also reduce bias.
As you can see, bond yields created the largest reversal pattern in decades. When inverted (as this chart is), yields look like bond prices. So this is action is very bearish for bond prices on a long-term historical basis.
Could the 39 year bull market in bonds be over? Sure looks like it. Stay tuned!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--AAL Gains ($11k to $95k) and my journey

AAL Gains ($11k to $95k) and my journey

Bought 200 AAL $ 20 strike call options with an expiration of 7/17 on June 4th 8:20 AM PST for @ @ @ @ @ $ 4.75 on June 5th 6:38 AM PST .
After losing all my savings , @ @ @ @ @ home , and 1 year of being - $ 45k in the red experiencing no @ @ @ @ @ and 69 heart palpitations , I am in the green .
No more flipping my @ @ @ @ @ more asking my wife ’ s boyfriend for his phone charger .
I thought I @ @ @ @ @ made all my $ back , but now I ’ m never leaving .
Thought @ @ @ @ @ reddit about this , but here I am , and I AM INCREDIBLY HAPPY .
@ @ @ @

by Apex_Hots
All time and % gains
Bought 200 AAL $20 strike call options with an expiration of 7/17 on June 4th 8:20 AM PST for $0.55 and sold for $4.75 on June 5th 6:38 AM PST.
Trade confirmation.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
After losing all my savings, backing out from buying a home, and 1 year of being -$45k in the red experiencing no sleep, 3 strokes, and 69 heart palpitations, I am in the green. No more flipping my phone upside down and no more asking my wife’s boyfriend for his phone charger.
I thought I’d stop once I made all my $ back, but now I’m never leaving. Thought I would never post on reddit about this, but here I am, and I AM INCREDIBLY HAPPY. Love you guys.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--BlackRock Authored the Bailout Plan Before There Was a Crisis

It ’ s called “ Going Direct.
” That ’ s the financial bailout plan designed and authored by former central bankers now on the payroll at BlackRock , an investment manager of $ 7 trillion in stock and bond funds .
The plan was rolled out in August 2019 at the G7 summit of central bankers in Jackson Hole , Wyoming – months before the public was aware of any financial crisis .
One month later , on September 17 , 2019 , the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin an emergency repo loan bailout program , making hundreds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by “ going direct ” to the trading houses on Wall Street .
The BlackRock plan calls for blurring the lines between government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy – exactly what the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are doing today in the United States .
BlackRock has now been hired by the Federal Reserve , the Bank of Canada , and Sweden ’ s central bank , Riksbank , to implement key features of the plan .
Three of the authors of the BlackRock plan previously worked as central bankers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , respectively .
The authors wrote in the white paper that “ in a downturn the only solution is for a more formal – and historically unusual – coordination of monetary and fiscal policy to provide effective stimulus.
” We now understand why , for the first time in history , the U.S. Congress handed over $ 454 billion of taxpayers ’ money to the Fed , without any meaningful debate , to eat losses on toxic assets produced by the Wall Street banks it supervises .
The Fed plans to leverage the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion bailout plan , “ going direct ” with bailouts to the commercial paper market , money market funds , and a host of other markets .
The BlackRock plan further explains why , for the first time in history , the Fed has hired BlackRock to “ go direct ” and buy up $ 750 billion in both primary and secondary corporate bonds and bond ETFs ( Exchange Traded Funds ) , a product of which BlackRock is one of the largest purveyors in the world .
Adding further outrage , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the $ 454 billion in taxpayers ’ money to eat the losses on its corporate bond purchases , which will include its own ETFs , which the Fed is allowing it to buy in the program .
Helicopter money is also spelled out in the BlackRock plan , which explains why simultaneously with the $ 454 billion Congress carved out for the Fed under the CARES Act , fiscal stimulus was also “ going direct ” with $ 1200 checks and direct deposits to the little people of America and Paycheck Protection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” to small businesses .
One feature of the BlackRock plan that is certain to get wide public pushback in the U.S. is the proposal for central banks to buy stocks ( equities ) .
The authors write this : “ Any additional measures to stimulate economic growth will have to go beyond the interest rate channel and ‘ go direct ’ – [ with ] a central bank crediting private or public sector accounts directly with money .
One way or another , this will mean subsidizing spending – and such a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by design .
This can be done directly through fiscal policy or by expanding the monetary policy toolkit with an instrument that will be fiscal in nature , such as credit easing by way of buying equities .
This implies that an effective stimulus would require coordination between monetary and fiscal policy –be it implicitly or explicitly.
” In the United States , approximately 85 percent of the stock market is owned by the richest 10 percent of Americans .
Buying stocks would simply expand and accelerate the wealth and income inequality which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1920s – a time when Wall Street also owned large deposit-taking banks .
The Swiss National Bank , the central bank of Switzerland , where one of the BlackRock authors previously worked , already has massive holdings of individual stocks , including $ 94 billion in publicly traded stocks in the U.S. according to its March 31 , 2020 report that was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission .
The BlackRock authors of the “ Going Direct ” plan are the following : Stanley Fischer : Fischer was Vice Chairman of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received the largest bailout in global banking history , getting $ 2.5 trillion cumulatively in revolving loans from the Fed and billions more from taxpayers in the financial crisis of 2007 to 2010 .
Fischer went from Citigroup to serve as Governor of the central bank of Israel ( Bank of Israel ) from 2005 to 2013 .
( He holds dual citizenship in Israel and the U.S. ) One year later , Fischer became a Governor on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board , advancing to Vice Chairman on June 16 , 2014 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed October 13 , 2017 and joined BlackRock as a Senior Advisor in January 2019 .
Philipp Hildebrand : Hildebrand was Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank from 2010 until he abruptly resigned in early 2012 .
( There was a scandal over his wife , a former hedge fund trader , making trades in currencies while he had inside information on interest rates . )
Hildebrand is now Vice Chairman of BlackRock and a member of the firm ’ s Global Executive Committee .
Jean Boivin : Boivin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Institute .
He joined BlackRock in 2014 .
Prior to joining BlackRock , Boivin was appointed Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada in March 2010 where he served for two years .
Boivin left the Bank of Canada in October 2012 to become Associate Deputy Minister at the Department of Finance , and to serve as Canada ’ s Finance Deputy at the G-7 , G-20 and the Financial Stability Board .
Elga Bartsch : Bartsch heads up economic and markets research at the Blackrock Investment Institute .
Prior to joining BlackRock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Chief European Economist at Morgan Stanley in London .
According to the government audit of the Fed ’ s bailout programs during the 2007-2010 financial crisis , Morgan Stanley was the second largest recipient of the Fed ’ s bailout programs , behind Citigroup , receiving $ 2.04 trillion cumulatively in revolving , below-market rate loans .
On May 15 , the central bank of Sweden , the Riksbank , announced that it would be using BlackRock to conduct “ an analysis of the Swedish corporate bonds market and an assessment of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonds asset purchase programme.
” The Bank of Canada announced in April that BlackRock has been hired as an adviser for its commercial paper , provincial bond , and corporate bond buying programs .
The Federal Reserve has given a no-bid contract to BlackRock to manage all of its corporate bond programs .
Peter Ewart , a writer based in Prince George , British Columbia , wrote the following in the Prince George Daily News about BlackRock ’ s role in herding central bank actions : “ The situation also shows how the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. is not classical capitalism but rather state monopoly capitalism , where giant enterprises are regularly backstopped with public funds and the boundaries between the state and the financial oligarchy are virtually non-existent.
” In the U.S. , 30 nonprofits , including Friends of the Earth , U.S. Greenpeace , Public Citizen , Rainforest Action Network , the Sierra Club and Take On Wall Street , wrote a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on March 27 regarding BlackRock ’ s role in the bailout .
The groups called out the Fed on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ full control of this debt buyout program , the Fed is further entwining the roles of government and private actors .
In doing so , it makes BlackRock even more systemically important to the financial system .
Yet BlackRock is not subject to the regulatory scrutiny of even smaller systemically important financial institutions.
” The groups also assailed the Fed for its “ no strings attached ” oversight of how BlackRock was spending the money , writing : “ As far as is known publicly , there are no conditions or restrictions on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must do to qualify for debt purchases outside of their credit rating .
This could mean that those companies could engage in stock buybacks or provide enormous CEO compensation packages , despite these practices exacerbating imbalances in corporate balance sheets and being a significant reason why these companies are so susceptible to the current crisis .
This also means that industries that actively harm the climate – and by extension the financial system – could get unconditional support… ” BlackRock is not only a major marketer of corporate bond products .
Its iShares @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ETFs .
The Chairman and CEO of BlackRock is Laurence ( Larry ) Fink .
Reuters reported last July that Fink was lecturing the European Central bank that it “ will need to purchase equities to stimulate Europe ’ s economy , and that leaders should find ways to have investors embrace an ‘ equity culture ’ there.
” The “ equity culture ” is code for what Senator Bernie Sanders calls “ socialism for the rich , and rugged , you ’ re on-your-own individualism for everyone else .
”

via wallstreetonparade
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 5, 2020 ~
It’s called “Going Direct.” That’s the financial bailout plan designed and authored by former central bankers now on the payroll at BlackRock, an investment manager of $7 trillion in stock and bond funds. The plan was rolled out in August 2019 at the G7 summit of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming – months before the public was aware of any financial crisis. One month later, on September 17, 2019, the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin an emergency repo loan bailout program, making hundreds of billions of dollars a week in loans by “going direct” to the trading houses on Wall Street.
The BlackRock plan calls for blurring the lines between government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy – exactly what the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are doing today in the United States. BlackRock has now been hired by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, and Sweden’s central bank, Riksbank, to implement key features of the plan. Three of the authors of the BlackRock plan previously worked as central bankers in the U.S., Canada and Switzerland, respectively.
The authors wrote in the white paper that “in a downturn the only solution is for a more formal – and historically unusual – coordination of monetary and fiscal policy to provide effective stimulus.”
We now understand why, for the first time in history, the U.S. Congress handed over $454 billion of taxpayers’ money to the Fed, without any meaningful debate, to eat losses on toxic assets produced by the Wall Street banks it supervises. The Fed plans to leverage the $454 billion into a $4.54 trillion bailout plan, “going direct” with bailouts to the commercial paper market, money market funds, and a host of other markets.
The BlackRock plan further explains why, for the first time in history, the Fed has hired BlackRock to “go direct” and buy up $750 billion in both primary and secondary corporate bonds and bond ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), a product of which BlackRock is one of the largest purveyors in the world. Adding further outrage, the BlackRock-run program will get $75 billion of the $454 billion in taxpayers’ money to eat the losses on its corporate bond purchases, which will include its own ETFs, which the Fed is allowing it to buy in the program.
Helicopter money is also spelled out in the BlackRock plan, which explains why simultaneously with the $454 billion Congress carved out for the Fed under the CARES Act, fiscal stimulus was also “going direct” with $1200 checks and direct deposits to the little people of America and Paycheck Protection Program loans and grants “going direct” to small businesses.
One feature of the BlackRock plan that is certain to get wide public pushback in the U.S. is the proposal for central banks to buy stocks (equities). The authors write this:
“Any additional measures to stimulate economic growth will have to go beyond the interest rate channel and ‘go direct’ – [with] a central bank crediting private or public sector accounts directly with money. One way or another, this will mean subsidizing spending – and such a measure would be fiscal rather than monetary by design. This can be done directly through fiscal policy or by expanding the monetary policy toolkit with an instrument that will be fiscal in nature, such as credit easing by way of buying equities. This implies that an effective stimulus would require coordination between monetary and fiscal policy –be it implicitly or explicitly.”
In the United States, approximately 85 percent of the stock market is owned by the richest 10 percent of Americans. Buying stocks would simply expand and accelerate the wealth and income inequality which is already at the highest levels since the 1920s – a time when Wall Street also owned large deposit-taking banks.
The Swiss National Bank, the central bank of Switzerland, where one of the BlackRock authors previously worked, already has massive holdings of individual stocks, including $94 billion in publicly traded stocks in the U.S. according to its March 31, 2020 report that was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The BlackRock authors of the “Going Direct” plan are the following:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Stanley Fischer: Fischer was Vice Chairman of Citigroup from 2002 to 2005. Citigroup received the largest bailout in global banking history, getting $2.5 trillion cumulatively in revolving loans from the Fed and billions more from taxpayers in the financial crisis of 2007 to 2010. Fischer went from Citigroup to serve as Governor of the central bank of Israel (Bank of Israel) from 2005 to 2013. (He holds dual citizenship in Israel and the U.S.) One year later, Fischer became a Governor on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, advancing to Vice Chairman on June 16, 2014. He resigned his position at the Fed October 13, 2017 and joined BlackRock as a Senior Advisor in January 2019.
Philipp Hildebrand: Hildebrand was Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank from 2010 until he abruptly resigned in early 2012. (There was a scandal over his wife, a former hedge fund trader, making trades in currencies while he had inside information on interest rates.) Hildebrand is now Vice Chairman of BlackRock and a member of the firm’s Global Executive Committee.
Jean Boivin: Boivin is the Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute. He joined BlackRock in 2014. Prior to joining BlackRock, Boivin was appointed Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada in March 2010 where he served for two years. Boivin left the Bank of Canada in October 2012 to become Associate Deputy Minister at the Department of Finance, and to serve as Canada’s Finance Deputy at the G-7, G-20 and the Financial Stability Board.
Elga Bartsch: Bartsch heads up economic and markets research at the Blackrock Investment Institute. Prior to joining BlackRock, Bartsch was Global Co-Head of Economics and Chief European Economist at Morgan Stanley in London. According to the government audit of the Fed’s bailout programs during the 2007-2010 financial crisis, Morgan Stanley was the second largest recipient of the Fed’s bailout programs, behind Citigroup, receiving $2.04 trillion cumulatively in revolving, below-market rate loans.
On May 15, the central bank of Sweden, the Riksbank, announced that it would be using BlackRock to conduct “an analysis of the Swedish corporate bonds market and an assessment of possible design options for a potential corporate bonds asset purchase programme.”
The Bank of Canada announced in April that BlackRock has been hired as an adviser for its commercial paper, provincial bond, and corporate bond buying programs.
The Federal Reserve has given a no-bid contract to BlackRock to manage all of its corporate bond programs.
Peter Ewart, a writer based in Prince George, British Columbia, wrote the following in the Prince George Daily News about BlackRock’s role in herding central bank actions:
“The situation also shows how the economic system in both Canada and the U.S. is not classical capitalism but rather state monopoly capitalism, where giant enterprises are regularly backstopped with public funds and the boundaries between the state and the financial oligarchy are virtually non-existent.”
In the U.S., 30 nonprofits, including Friends of the Earth, U.S. Greenpeace, Public Citizen, Rainforest Action Network, the Sierra Club and Take On Wall Street, wrote a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on March 27 regarding BlackRock’s role in the bailout. The groups called out the Fed on the following:
“By giving BlackRock full control of this debt buyout program, the Fed is further entwining the roles of government and private actors. In doing so, it makes BlackRock even more systemically important to the financial system. Yet BlackRock is not subject to the regulatory scrutiny of even smaller systemically important financial institutions.”
The groups also assailed the Fed for its “no strings attached” oversight of how BlackRock was spending the money, writing:
“As far as is known publicly, there are no conditions or restrictions on what debt is purchased or what companies must do to qualify for debt purchases outside of their credit rating. This could mean that those companies could engage in stock buybacks or provide enormous CEO compensation packages, despite these practices exacerbating imbalances in corporate balance sheets and being a significant reason why these companies are so susceptible to the current crisis. This also means that industries that actively harm the climate – and by extension the financial system – could get unconditional support…”
BlackRock is not only a major marketer of corporate bond products. Its iShares brand includes a giant roster of stock-based ETFs. The Chairman and CEO of BlackRock is Laurence (Larry) Fink. Reuters reported last July that Fink was lecturing the European Central bank that it “will need to purchase equities to stimulate Europe’s economy, and that leaders should find ways to have investors embrace an ‘equity culture’ there.”
The “equity culture” is code for what Senator Bernie Sanders calls “socialism for the rich, and rugged, you’re on-your-own individualism for everyone else.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Looks like Mexico is frustrated too

Looks like Mexico is frustrated too

Looks like Mexico is frustrated too t.co/BtCRYnC7gI
— THE LONG VIEW ⚫ (@HayekAndKeynes) June 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Wall Street stock markets operate like a giant casino. With 40M unemployed, tens of millions of smal

Wall Street stock markets operate like a giant casino. With 40M unemployed, tens of millions of small businesses on the brink of bankruptcy, and suffering industries like restaurants, hotels, tourism and entertainment/sports. Staggering, the stock exchanges are booming.

Disconnect the Dow and Nasdaq averages from the economic reality facing Americans .
More economists are looking at the market @ @ @ @ @ , at near zero interest rates , as a mechanism to further concentrate wealth in @ @ @ @ @ and increase economic inequality .
-R

Disconnect the Dow and Nasdaq averages from the economic reality facing Americans. More economists are looking at the market, juiced by the Fed, at near zero interest rates, as a mechanism to further concentrate wealth in the hands of the few and increase economic inequality. -R
— Ralph Nader (@RalphNader) June 5, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Very Bad Jobless Claims Report

Very Bad Jobless Claims Report

The stock market drives the media narrative .
Some argue that the decline in the stock market in March caused governments to take COVID-19 more seriously .
Public health shouldn ’ t be impacted by stocks , but the oxygen it gives to stories is undeniable .
Now that stocks are rising and the new story is the protests , COVID-19 has been put on the backburner .
It ’ s amazing to see an international pandemic get pushed aside .
The world is focused on the protests and investors are focused on the rise in stock prices .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the theory is that even if it comes back in the fall , doctors will be able to handle it better .
The fact that the 2nd wave is the biggest worry shows how lax things have become .
The first wave isn ’ t over globally as Brazil , Russia , and India are being hit hard .
As you can see from the data below , the decline in the number of cases in New York makes American data look like it ’ s in a downtrend even though many other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On June 4th , there were 2,548 new cases in California which was one of the highest readings ever .
There were 1,769 new cases in Texas and 1,419 in Florida .
To be clear , the number of cases is being pushed up by the number of new tests .
We ’ re just saying the risk isn ’ t gone like the market suggests .
There are so many ways to look at the rise of the mega tech companies .
As we ’ ve discussed , the top 5 have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the S & P 500 , but they have had strong earnings in relation to the index .
These firms face increasing regulations , but mostly have wide moats .
If you use Morningstar ’ s categorization , of the big 5 firms , 4 have a wide moat and Apple has a narrow moat .
The analysis on these firms has been taken a step further .
As you can see from the chart above , these firms only employ 1 million workers , with Amazon employing about 80 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hire more workers to monitor what users are posting in the site .
The ratio of total employees to share of the index these firms have is very low .
In 2009 when the top 5 firms were 10 % of the index , they had 2.7 million employees .
The recent growth in these stocks has been faster than their increase in hiring .
Asset lite companies with high sales per employee are in vogue right now .
It ’ s debatable if this is a problem because before this recession , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The dominance of these firms didn ’ t prevent a low unemployment rate .
In the past few weeks there has been an increase in business applications as the country is reopening .
Even better , the chart below shows there has been an increase in the number of high propensity applications which are applications that are very likely to turn into a business with payroll .
People are about to get hired from these new firms .
In the week of May 30th , there was a 3.9 % yearly increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost back to where it was before this recession .
The Challenger job cut announcement reading fell from 671,129 to 397,016 in May .
Even still , this is the most cuts in the first 5 months of a year on record as there have been 1.4 million .
The cuts continue to be led by entertainment and leisure which had 163,680 in May and has had 578,886 this year .
California dominated layoff announcements as it had 202,390 , while the other regions each had a total near 50,000 .
In other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Midwest , South , and East combined .
The most interesting part of this report was the major downtick in hiring announcements .
It seems like the companies like staples that needed more workers because of COVID-19 , made those announcements mostly in March and April .
Hirings fell from 824,610 in March , which was a record high , to 285,639 in April , which is a relatively strong number , to 38,981 in May which is a weak number .
30,000 of hires in May were in entertainment and leisure .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobless claims report was bad .
Claims in the week of May 23rd were revised 3,000 higher to 2.126 million .
In the week of the 30th , there were 1.877 million initial claims which was above estimates for 1.79 million .
There also were 623,000 PUA claims .
Initial claims fell 11.7 % which was less than the 13.1 % decline in the previous week .
There will inevitably be a trend of lower declines as there are fewer initial claims , but recognize that the number of initial claims is higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Claims falling doesn ’ t matter because they have to fall because so many people are already unemployed and the backlogs are shrinking .
As you can see from the chart below , the number of continued claims was 21.49 million which rose from 20.84 million .
This ends the streak of declines at 1 which is needed to say this recession is over .
We need a few weeks before the recession is over .
It ’ s no surprise it rose because the crash last week was mainly due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people to either go back to work or lose their benefits .
Continued claims are stabilizing , but not falling yet .
There has been an uptick in COVID-19 cases outside of New York .
The first wave of this virus isn ’ t done if you look at it globally as emerging markets are suffering badly ( besides China ) .
The big 5 tech firms are a huge percentage of the stock market , yet they only employ 1 million workers .
There has been an uptick in high propensity business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There was a big decline in job cut announcements , but there also was a big decline in hiring announcements .
Initial claims are still very high and continued claims have stabilized .

by UPFINA
The stock market drives the media narrative. Some argue that the decline in the stock market in March caused governments to take COVID-19 more seriously. Public health shouldn’t be impacted by stocks, but the oxygen it gives to stories is undeniable. Now that stocks are rising and the new story is the protests, COVID-19 has been put on the backburner. It’s amazing to see an international pandemic get pushed aside. The world is focused on the protests and investors are focused on the rise in stock prices. There is much less focus on COVID-19 because the theory is that even if it comes back in the fall, doctors will be able to handle it better.
The fact that the 2nd wave is the biggest worry shows how lax things have become. The first wave isn’t over globally as Brazil, Russia, and India are being hit hard. As you can see from the data below, the decline in the number of cases in New York makes American data look like it’s in a downtrend even though many other states are showing high new cases. On June 4th, there were 2,548 new cases in California which was one of the highest readings ever. There were 1,769 new cases in Texas and 1,419 in Florida. To be clear, the number of cases is being pushed up by the number of new tests. We’re just saying the risk isn’t gone like the market suggests.
A decline in New York COVID cases is masking a spike in other states pic.twitter.com/sICnRzBUPa — Ed Bradford (@Fullcarry) June 4, 2020
Less Employees
There are so many ways to look at the rise of the mega tech companies. As we’ve discussed, the top 5 have about 21% of the market cap of the S&P 500, but they have had strong earnings in relation to the index. These firms face increasing regulations, but mostly have wide moats. If you use Morningstar’s categorization, of the big 5 firms, 4 have a wide moat and Apple has a narrow moat. The analysis on these firms has been taken a step further.
The 5 most valuable companies represent 21.3% of the S&P 500's market cap and employ 1 million workers. 10 years ago, the top 5 were 9% of the market cap with 2.7 million workers. I think that is a big deal. pic.twitter.com/DmDTBrFMTy — Vincent Deluard (@VincentDeluard) June 4, 2020
As you can see from the chart above, these firms only employ 1 million workers, with Amazon employing about 80% of them. Regulations might force Facebook to hire more workers to monitor what users are posting in the site. The ratio of total employees to share of the index these firms have is very low. In 2009 when the top 5 firms were 10% of the index, they had 2.7 million employees. The recent growth in these stocks has been faster than their increase in hiring. Asset lite companies with high sales per employee are in vogue right now. It’s debatable if this is a problem because before this recession, the labor market was at full employment. The dominance of these firms didn’t prevent a low unemployment rate.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Spike In New Business Applications
In the past few weeks there has been an increase in business applications as the country is reopening. Even better, the chart below shows there has been an increase in the number of high propensity applications which are applications that are very likely to turn into a business with payroll. People are about to get hired from these new firms. In the week of May 30th, there was a 3.9% yearly increase in these applications. The total is almost back to where it was before this recession.
High propensity business applications continue their ascent, up 3.9% against the last year for the week ending May 30. The "High-Propensity Business Applications" subset contains all applications with a high-propensity of turning into a business with a payroll. pic.twitter.com/QUHHQ7fro0 — RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) June 4, 2020
Bad Jobless Claims Report
The Challenger job cut announcement reading fell from 671,129 to 397,016 in May. Even still, this is the most cuts in the first 5 months of a year on record as there have been 1.4 million. The cuts continue to be led by entertainment and leisure which had 163,680 in May and has had 578,886 this year. California dominated layoff announcements as it had 202,390, while the other regions each had a total near 50,000. In other words, California had more than the Midwest, South, and East combined. The most interesting part of this report was the major downtick in hiring announcements. It seems like the companies like staples that needed more workers because of COVID-19, made those announcements mostly in March and April. Hirings fell from 824,610 in March, which was a record high, to 285,639 in April, which is a relatively strong number, to 38,981 in May which is a weak number. 30,000 of hires in May were in entertainment and leisure.
Even as stocks ramp higher, the jobless claims report was bad. Claims in the week of May 23rd were revised 3,000 higher to 2.126 million. In the week of the 30th, there were 1.877 million initial claims which was above estimates for 1.79 million. There also were 623,000 PUA claims. Initial claims fell 11.7% which was less than the 13.1% decline in the previous week. There will inevitably be a trend of lower declines as there are fewer initial claims, but recognize that the number of initial claims is higher than at any point besides this year. Claims falling doesn’t matter because they have to fall because so many people are already unemployed and the backlogs are shrinking.
Following a record decline last week, continuing claims rose to 21.49 million: t.co/2LodBniGxJ pic.twitter.com/Kt1jJXR8Ih — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 4, 2020
As you can see from the chart below, the number of continued claims was 21.49 million which rose from 20.84 million. This ends the streak of declines at 1 which is needed to say this recession is over. We need a few weeks before the recession is over. It’s no surprise it rose because the crash last week was mainly due to 3 states which opened and forced many people to either go back to work or lose their benefits. Continued claims are stabilizing, but not falling yet.
Conclusion
There has been an uptick in COVID-19 cases outside of New York. The first wave of this virus isn’t done if you look at it globally as emerging markets are suffering badly (besides China). The big 5 tech firms are a huge percentage of the stock market, yet they only employ 1 million workers. There has been an uptick in high propensity business applications which is a nice positive. There was a big decline in job cut announcements, but there also was a big decline in hiring announcements. Initial claims are still very high and continued claims have stabilized.


The World Police

The US has long had the distinction of being the “ world police ” who would protect citizens of other nations against human rights abuses .
Now , countries like Iran and North Korea are pointing their finger back at the US for its alleged double standard .
Russian Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said , “ It ’ s time for the US to drop the mentor ’ s tone and look in the mirror.
” Russia previously issued a series of statements to the US after Russian reporters covering the protests were injured by the police .
Putin himself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Russa .
North Korea , the hermit country notorious for controlling every action of its citizens , also condemned the US ’ actions .
The Workers ’ Party of Korea ( WPK ) accused US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of being “ deeply engrossed in espionage and plot-breeding against other countries , [ and ] has become too ignorant to discern where the sun rises and where it sets.
” Pompeo has been an outspoken proponent of Hong Kong ’ s independence and advocated eliminating their special trading status .
Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of using a “ double standard.
” “ They value very much their own national security , but are biased in viewing ours , ” Lam said earlier in the week .
“ There are riots in the United States and we see how local governments reacted .
And then in Hong Kong , when we had similar riots , we saw what position they adopted , ” Lam observed .
China , who gathered the Muslim Uighur population into detention camps , insisted that the US “ safeguard and guarantee the legal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Foreign Minister , Mohammad Javad Zarif , exposed the double standard by reposting a warning to Iran issued by Mike Pompeo in which he replaced the word “ Iran ” with “ America.
” Secretary Pompeo fired back at Zarif , “ You hang homosexuals , stone women and exterminate Jews.
” Although the level of control and human rights abuses can not be compared to other nations , it is hard for the US to maintain a moral high ground when it deploys the military against its own citizens .

by Martin Armstrong
The US has long had the distinction of being the “world police” who would protect citizens of other nations against human rights abuses. Now, countries like Iran and North Korea are pointing their finger back at the US for its alleged double standard.
Russian Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, “It’s time for the US to drop the mentor’s tone and look in the mirror.” Russia previously issued a series of statements to the US after Russian reporters covering the protests were injured by the police. Putin himself said he would not tolerate an uprising in Russa.
North Korea, the hermit country notorious for controlling every action of its citizens, also condemned the US’ actions. The Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) accused US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of being “deeply engrossed in espionage and plot-breeding against other countries, [and] has become too ignorant to discern where the sun rises and where it sets.” Pompeo has been an outspoken proponent of Hong Kong’s independence and advocated eliminating their special trading status.
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Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam accused the US of using a “double standard.” “They value very much their own national security, but are biased in viewing ours,” Lam said earlier in the week. “There are riots in the United States and we see how local governments reacted. And then in Hong Kong, when we had similar riots, we saw what position they adopted,” Lam observed.
China, who gathered the Muslim Uighur population into detention camps, insisted that the US “safeguard and guarantee the legal rights of ethnic minorities.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, exposed the double standard by reposting a warning to Iran issued by Mike Pompeo in which he replaced the word “Iran” with “America.”
Secretary Pompeo fired back at Zarif, “You hang homosexuals, stone women and exterminate Jews.” Although the level of control and human rights abuses cannot be compared to other nations, it is hard for the US to maintain a moral high ground when it deploys the military against its own citizens.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Biden is all for equal rights you say?

Biden is all for equal rights you say?

Funny , back when he could still put together sentences ( barely ) he had this outstanding , possibly racial @ @ @ @ @ ’ t he also responsible for incarcerating millions of Black people due to his bills @ @ @ @ @ record , man ” .
Did we forget ?
Watch the video for yourself .
@ @ @ @ @ up their views based on whatever voter demographic they are trying to pander to .
@ @ @ @ @ the MSM tries to push on you about Mr. Joe .
Much like any politician @ @ @ @ @ give 2 craps about me , you , or anybody else .
INb4 but Trump @ @ @ @ @ , well guess what this isn ’ t about Trump , it ’ s about @ @ @ @ @ intentional ) of the democratic party for blatantly stealing the nomination from Bernie and giving @ @ @ @ @

by boomerpro
Funny, back when he could still put together sentences (barely) he had this outstanding, possibly racial motivated, speech. Wasn’t he also responsible for incarcerating millions of Black people due to his bills? “Check my track record, man”. Did we forget?
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Watch the video for yourself. Funny how these politicians switch up their views based on whatever voter demographic they are trying to pander to. Don’t believe everything the MSM tries to push on you about Mr. Joe. Much like any politician, he doesn’t give 2 craps about me, you, or anybody else.
INb4 but Trump is a bigot hurr durr, well guess what this isn’t about Trump, it’s about the utter incompetence (possibly intentional) of the democratic party for blatantly stealing the nomination from Bernie and giving it to this clown.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--George Floyd Had Covid-19 And Neighbors Thought Derek Chauvin Was A Real Estate Agent

To anyone who has been paying attention , this shouldn ’ t come as a shock .
Mainstream media outlets are now reporting that George Floyd had COVID-19 .
He apparently tested positive back in April .
According to a report by the New York Post , Dr. Andrew Baker , the chief medical examiner at Hennepin County said that the coronavirus was not a factor in Floyd ’ s death .
( Obviously .
We saw it .
It was murder . )
“ Since … positivity for [ COVID-19 ] can persist for weeks after the onset and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result most likely reflects asymptomatic but persistent … positivity from previous infection , ” Baker wrote in the report , which was released Wednesday with the permission of Floyd family .
The full 20-page report maintains that Floyd ’ s death was a homicide and that he died when his heart stopped while officer Derek Chauvin compressed his neck in the widely viewed video of his arrest .
Floyd ’ s family had conducted an independent autopsy that was released this week and it claimed the cause of death was different .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s death was caused by asphyxia from both neck and back compression due to the weight fellow officer Thomas Lane pressed on his abdomen .
The medical examiner ’ s office ’ s findings included “ other significant conditions ” of Floyd ’ s such as heart disease , fentanyl intoxication , and recent methamphetamine use .
These details were released in the initial report that angered Floyd ’ s family attorney , Benjamin Crump .
Crump said the inclusion of those conditions , which were not ruled to be a factor in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an attempt to assassinate Floyd ’ s character ahead of the officers ’ trials .
As far as the “ killer cop ” goes , his neighbors had no idea he was even a cop .
They thought he was a real estate agent .
How interesting that the mainstream media is leaving this part out .
Perhaps it was all just a psyop .
Perhaps it was to incite violence and bring in the troops for martial law .
Many Americans are now seeing “ wartime ” military in their hometowns under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also the police that have supplied the rioters with bricks .
There ’ s a lot of people still siding with the government and looking for ruler to dictate their lives , but it ’ s time to wake up .
You are being played .
We all are .
You can hate the messenger all you want , but it doesn ’ t change what ’ s happening .
The coronavirus lost it ’ s fear factor when people started to wake up to what the government was doing and the ruling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couldn ’ t get martial law after they impoverished the masses , so on to the next crisis .
It ’ s probably going to be one thing after another now until we either wake up and break free or end up in chains we ’ ll never get out of .
There are also people being paid to disrupt peaceful protests .
George Soros has paid agitators for years .
This isn ’ t new information .
The mainstream media is desperately trying to keep ahold of the official narrative on this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifting the veil and looking beyond .
We ’ ve been conditioned our whole life to not question “ authority ” and they are telling us not to now .
Or what ?
They ’ ll label you a “ conspiracy theorist ” and “ antisemitic.
” You can argue about the definitions of words all you want .
But their structure remains the same .
The word “ government ” can be split into two words : 1 .
( guvernare ) meaning “ to control ” and 2 .
( mens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SO GOVERNMENT MEANS “ TO CONTROL THE MIND.
” Arguing about how much control others should have over our minds is not a solution .
The solution is to start thinking for yourself and stop letting them control you .
Pay attention and stop allowing the media and the government to tell you what to think .
Look into things and figure out the difference between right and wrong on your own .

by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan
To anyone who has been paying attention, this shouldn’t come as a shock. Mainstream media outlets are now reporting that George Floyd had COVID-19. He apparently tested positive back in April.
According to a report by the New York Post, Dr. Andrew Baker, the chief medical examiner at Hennepin County said that the coronavirus was not a factor in Floyd’s death. (Obviously. We saw it. It was murder.) “Since … positivity for [COVID-19] can persist for weeks after the onset and resolution of clinical disease, the autopsy result most likely reflects asymptomatic but persistent … positivity from previous infection,” Baker wrote in the report, which was released Wednesday with the permission of Floyd family.
The full 20-page report maintains that Floyd’s death was a homicide and that he died when his heart stopped while officer Derek Chauvin compressed his neck in the widely viewed video of his arrest.
Floyd’s family had conducted an independent autopsy that was released this week and it claimed the cause of death was different. But it was still homicide. Floyd’s death was caused by asphyxia from both neck and back compression due to the weight fellow officer Thomas Lane pressed on his abdomen.
The medical examiner’s office’s findings included “other significant conditions” of Floyd’s such as heart disease, fentanyl intoxication, and recent methamphetamine use. These details were released in the initial report that angered Floyd’s family attorney, Benjamin Crump. Crump said the inclusion of those conditions, which were not ruled to be a factor in his death in either autopsy, was an attempt to assassinate Floyd’s character ahead of the officers’ trials.
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As far as the “killer cop” goes, his neighbors had no idea he was even a cop. They thought he was a real estate agent.
How interesting that the mainstream media is leaving this part out. Perhaps it was all just a psyop. Perhaps it was to incite violence and bring in the troops for martial law. Many Americans are now seeing “wartime” military in their hometowns under President Donald Trump.
It’s also the police that have supplied the rioters with bricks. There’s a lot of people still siding with the government and looking for ruler to dictate their lives, but it’s time to wake up. You are being played. We all are. You can hate the messenger all you want, but it doesn’t change what’s happening.
The coronavirus lost it’s fear factor when people started to wake up to what the government was doing and the ruling class needed a different crisis. They couldn’t get martial law after they impoverished the masses, so on to the next crisis. It’s probably going to be one thing after another now until we either wake up and break free or end up in chains we’ll never get out of.
There are also people being paid to disrupt peaceful protests. George Soros has paid agitators for years. This isn’t new information. The mainstream media is desperately trying to keep ahold of the official narrative on this crisis too. We have to start lifting the veil and looking beyond. We’ve been conditioned our whole life to not question “authority” and they are telling us not to now. Or what? They’ll label you a “conspiracy theorist” and “antisemitic.”
You can argue about the definitions of words all you want. But their structure remains the same. The word “government” can be split into two words: 1. (guvernare) meaning “to control” and 2. (mens or mentis) meaning “mind.” SO GOVERNMENT MEANS “TO CONTROL THE MIND.” Arguing about how much control others should have over our minds is not a solution. The solution is to start thinking for yourself and stop letting them control you.
Pay attention and stop allowing the media and the government to tell you what to think. Look into things and figure out the difference between right and wrong on your own.


Is COVID-19 Over?

It ’ s incredible how quickly the media can spin the narrative .
Two weeks ago , the media labeled anyone who dared to step foot outside as a psychopathic grandmother killer .
Now , they ’ re urging the masses to gather by the thousands to take part in a revolution .
Even Joe Biden announced plans to attend the public funeral for George Floyd , with thousands of others , despite supporting harsh quarantine measures that ensured thousands died alone without a proper burial .
A few weeks ago the media praised police officers as heroic frontline workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the enemy .
The media has completely shifted their 24/7 , 365 , coverage of the coronavirus over to the worldwide protests and the racial war narrative .
So , according to the media , I guess the coronavirus is no longer a concern .
The riots could not have come at a better time for Joe Biden .
Days before the riots began , Biden famously minimalized a portion of the population by saying , “ Well , if you have a problem figuring out whether you ’ re for me or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black.
” This coincides with the Democratic Party ’ s rhetoric that all minorities and women must vote for them instead of independently choosing a candidate .
In fact , Biden recently told CNN that he felt the interviewer was “ baiting ” him to make such a comment .
Then Ukraine quietly mentioned that Joe ’ s son , Hunter Biden , has been found innocent of all charges on the same day as George Floyd ’ s funeral service .
CNN has released a news article claiming now would be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young black woman as his Vice President .
Politicians will never allow a good crisis to go to waste .

by Martin Armstrong
It’s incredible how quickly the media can spin the narrative. Two weeks ago, the media labeled anyone who dared to step foot outside as a psychopathic grandmother killer. Now, they’re urging the masses to gather by the thousands to take part in a revolution.
Even Joe Biden announced plans to attend the public funeral for George Floyd, with thousands of others, despite supporting harsh quarantine measures that ensured thousands died alone without a proper burial. A few weeks ago the media praised police officers as heroic frontline workers, only to quickly demonize them as the enemy.
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The media has completely shifted their 24/7, 365, coverage of the coronavirus over to the worldwide protests and the racial war narrative. So, according to the media, I guess the coronavirus is no longer a concern.
The riots could not have come at a better time for Joe Biden. Days before the riots began, Biden famously minimalized a portion of the population by saying, “Well, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” This coincides with the Democratic Party’s rhetoric that all minorities and women must vote for them instead of independently choosing a candidate. In fact, Biden recently told CNN that he felt the interviewer was “baiting” him to make such a comment. Then Ukraine quietly mentioned that Joe’s son, Hunter Biden, has been found innocent of all charges on the same day as George Floyd’s funeral service. CNN has released a news article claiming now would be the perfect time for Biden to choose a young black woman as his Vice President. Politicians will never allow a good crisis to go to waste.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Is this the best and brightest candidate available for the job? Joe can’t even put a coherent senten

Is this the best and brightest candidate available for the job? Joe can’t even put a coherent sentence together and people are supposed to put their trust in this man?

So out of millions of people this was the best and brightest candidate available ?
I call bullshit .
It @ @ @ @ @ people .
He can ’ t even dress himself in the morning , what kind @ @ @ @ @ feeding him ?

by boomerpro
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So out of millions of people this was the best and brightest candidate available? I call bullshit. It’s all a scam people. He can’t even dress himself in the morning, what kind of drugs are they spoon feeding him?


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--Trump administration orders Marriott to cease Cuba hotel business

Trump administration cancels Marriott ’ s license to run hotels in Cuba BY NORA GÁMEZ TORRES | JUNE 05 , 2020 ( Miami Herald ) – Another Obama-era symbol of engagement with Cuba will soon be gone , after the Trump administration told Marriott International its license to run the Sheraton Four Points hotel in Havana will not be renewed .
The hotel , reopened under the Sheraton brand in 2016 , was the only one in Cuba managed by an American company .
“ We have recently received notice that the government-issued license will not be renewed , forcing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said Kerstin Sachl , the company ’ s director of public relations for Latin America and the Caribbean .
Sachl said the Treasury Department told Marriott that operations in Cuba have to cease before Aug. 31 and that the company will not be allowed to manage other hotels on the island as it had planned .
The inauguration of the Four Points Sheraton hotel in 2016 , the first run by an American company since 1959 , became one of the symbols of the thaw in relations with the communist country under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criticism from the start because the hotel is owned by the Gaviota company , which is linked to the Cuban military…

Trump administration cancels Marriott’s license to run hotels in Cuba
BY NORA GÁMEZ TORRES | JUNE 05, 2020
(Miami Herald) – Another Obama-era symbol of engagement with Cuba will soon be gone, after the Trump administration told Marriott International its license to run the Sheraton Four Points hotel in Havana will not be renewed.
The hotel, reopened under the Sheraton brand in 2016, was the only one in Cuba managed by an American company.
“We have recently received notice that the government-issued license will not be renewed, forcing Marriott to cease operations in Cuba,” said Kerstin Sachl, the company’s director of public relations for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Sachl said the Treasury Department told Marriott that operations in Cuba have to cease before Aug. 31 and that the company will not be allowed to manage other hotels on the island as it had planned.
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The inauguration of the Four Points Sheraton hotel in 2016, the first run by an American company since 1959, became one of the symbols of the thaw in relations with the communist country under President Barack Obama.
The agreement generated criticism from the start because the hotel is owned by the Gaviota company, which is linked to the Cuban military…
READ MORE:
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article243305101.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-06--FINALLY Some Good News: Covid-19 Might Be “Declining…in Virulence and Infection Rate”

Things can always change in the wild world of viruses , but currently , more than one hospital is reporting that the COVID-19 virus is “ declining both in virulence and infection rate.
” The World Health Organization , however , is unconvinced .
A physician in Italy said that COVID-19 is disappearing in the beleaguered country .
“ In reality , the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy , ” said Alberto Zangrillo , the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy , which has borne the brunt of Italy ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago , ” he told RAI television .
( source ) Another doctor in Italy backed of Dr. Zangrillo ’ s claim , stating : “ The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today , ” said Matteo Bassetti , head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today the COVID-19 disease is different.
” ( source ) And yet another Italian doctor offered positive news related about the virus .
A variant of the novel coronavirus ( SARS-CoV-2 ) that is “ extremely less powerful ” than the one that is widely spread has been isolated in Italy ’ s Brescia of Lombardy region .
Prof. Arnaldo Caruso , President of the Italian Society of Virology said that the virus they isolated took at least six days to start attacking cells , as opposed to the widely circulated strains of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two to three days .
He said the usual SARS-CoV-2 virus “ are biological bombs capable of exterminating target cells in 2-3 days , ” as reported by HuffPost .
( source ) World Health Organization experts and other scientists vehemently disagreed with Dr. Zangrillo on Monday , stating that there wasn ’ t any evidence to support his claim .
WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove , as well as several other experts on viruses and infectious diseases , said Zangrillo ’ s comments were not supported by scientific evidence .
There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is changing significantly , either in its form of transmission or in the severity of the disease it causes , they said .
“ In terms of transmissibility , that has not changed , in terms of severity , that has not changed , ” Van Kerkhove told reporters .
( source ) A reduced virulence could negate the need to come up with a vaccine that many have expected to become mandatory .
Zangrillo , well known in Italy as the personal doctor of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi , said his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conducted by a fellow scientist , Massimo Clementi , which Zangrillo said would be published next week .
Zangrillo told Reuters : “ We have never said that the virus has changed , we said that the interaction between the virus and the host has definitely changed.
” He said this could be due either to different characteristics of the virus , which he said they had not yet identified , or different characteristics in those infected .
( source ) Other scientists interviewed by Reuters sided with the WHO on the subject @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are also seeing the virus weaken .
The University of Pittsburg Medical Center echoed the sentiment of the doctors in Italy , announcing that COVID19 “ appears to be declining both in virulence and infection rate.
” “ The virus may be changing , ” Dr. Donald Yealy said Thursday during a news conference .
“ Some patterns suggest the potency is diminished.
” Yealy said UPMC has successfully treated more than 500 patients with coronavirus since March , and fewer patients are requiring ventilators to help them breathe .
People seem to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases appear to be less severe than when the pandemic first began , he explained .
( source ) While this doesn ’ t mean you should through caution to the wind , it is cause for optimism after a rather dismal first half of the new decade .
And we ’ ll soon know .
After weeks of protests have rocked the United States , first due to the lockdowns organized to lessen the outbreak of COVID19 , and then in response to the killing of George Floyd in police custody , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ second wave of infections…or not after these gatherings .
If we managed to avoid a second wave of illness and lockdowns , it would be a very welcome reprieve from the non-stop disasters of the year so far .
What do you think ?
Do you think the virus has weakened ?
Why do you think the World Health Organization is disputing these claims ?
Share your thoughts in the comments .

by Daisy Luther
Things can always change in the wild world of viruses, but currently, more than one hospital is reporting that the COVID-19 virus is “declining both in virulence and infection rate.”
The World Health Organization, however, is unconvinced.
Italian doctors claim that COVID19 is weakening.
A physician in Italy said that COVID-19 is disappearing in the beleaguered country.
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion. “The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television. (source)
Another doctor in Italy backed of Dr. Zangrillo’s claim, stating:
“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa. “It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.” (source)
And yet another Italian doctor offered positive news related about the virus.
A variant of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that is “extremely less powerful” than the one that is widely spread has been isolated in Italy’s Brescia of Lombardy region. Prof. Arnaldo Caruso, President of the Italian Society of Virology said that the virus they isolated took at least six days to start attacking cells, as opposed to the widely circulated strains of the novel coronavirus, which takes only two to three days. He said the usual SARS-CoV-2 virus “are biological bombs capable of exterminating target cells in 2-3 days,” as reported by HuffPost. (source)
The Italian government remains cautious.
“Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared… I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians,” Sandra Zampa, an undersecretary at the health ministry, said in a statement. (source)
The World Health Organization disputes these claims.
World Health Organization experts and other scientists vehemently disagreed with Dr. Zangrillo on Monday, stating that there wasn’t any evidence to support his claim.
WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove, as well as several other experts on viruses and infectious diseases, said Zangrillo’s comments were not supported by scientific evidence. There is no data to show the new coronavirus is changing significantly, either in its form of transmission or in the severity of the disease it causes, they said. “In terms of transmissibility, that has not changed, in terms of severity, that has not changed,” Van Kerkhove told reporters. (source)
A reduced virulence could negate the need to come up with a vaccine that many have expected to become mandatory.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Despite the rebuttal, Zangrillo stood firm.
Zangrillo, well known in Italy as the personal doctor of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, said his comments were backed up by a study conducted by a fellow scientist, Massimo Clementi, which Zangrillo said would be published next week. Zangrillo told Reuters: “We have never said that the virus has changed, we said that the interaction between the virus and the host has definitely changed.” He said this could be due either to different characteristics of the virus, which he said they had not yet identified, or different characteristics in those infected. (source)
Other scientists interviewed by Reuters sided with the WHO on the subject.
Meanwhile, doctors in the US are also seeing the virus weaken.
The University of Pittsburg Medical Center echoed the sentiment of the doctors in Italy, announcing that COVID19 “appears to be declining both in virulence and infection rate.”
“The virus may be changing,” Dr. Donald Yealy said Thursday during a news conference. “Some patterns suggest the potency is diminished.” Yealy said UPMC has successfully treated more than 500 patients with coronavirus since March, and fewer patients are requiring ventilators to help them breathe. People seem to be contracting the virus less easily and cases appear to be less severe than when the pandemic first began, he explained. (source)
While this doesn’t mean you should through caution to the wind, it is cause for optimism after a rather dismal first half of the new decade.
And we’ll soon know.
After weeks of protests have rocked the United States, first due to the lockdowns organized to lessen the outbreak of COVID19, and then in response to the killing of George Floyd in police custody, we should soon either see a massive second wave of infections…or not after these gatherings.
If we managed to avoid a second wave of illness and lockdowns, it would be a very welcome reprieve from the non-stop disasters of the year so far.
What do you think?
Do you think the virus has weakened? Why do you think the World Health Organization is disputing these claims? Share your thoughts in the comments.