investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Florida blocks COVID-19 information from public as Gov. Ron DeSantis touts transparency

When the Miami Herald sought information from the Miami-Dade Medical Examiner ’ s Office last month about COVID-19 deaths in @ @ @ @ @ s coronavirus outbreak , attorneys for the state health department moved to block the records @ @ @ @ @ and phone conference appointments obtained through a public records request show that , while medical @ @ @ @ @ released details about deaths in their counties , attorneys for the state spent more than @ @ @ @ @ their counterparts in Miami-Dade County not to provide that information to the Herald .

When the Miami Herald sought information from the Miami-Dade Medical Examiner’s Office last month about COVID-19 deaths in the epicenter of Florida’s coronavirus outbreak, attorneys for the state health department moved to block the records from becoming public.
Emails and phone conference appointments obtained through a public records request show that, while medical examiners across Florida had already released details about deaths in their counties, attorneys for the state spent more than a week trying to convince their counterparts in Miami-Dade County not to provide that information to the Herald.
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www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242050696.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--China’s state media, CGTN (China Global TV Network), have produced videos for the Middle East audien

China’s state media, CGTN (China Global TV Network), have produced videos for the Middle East audience that spread the story that covid19 was made by the US.

As if there isn ’ t already enough hatred against the US in the Middle East .
This is an @ @ @ @

As if there isn’t already enough hatred against the US in the Middle East.
This is an act of war.
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h/t Fickkissen


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--‘The Rent is Being Canceled, Whether we Authorize it or Not’ says Queens’ (New York) Michael Gianari

‘The Rent is Being Canceled, Whether we Authorize it or Not’ says Queens’ (New York) Michael Gianaris

“ I want to see action taken now and I ’ ve asked the governor to do this by executive order since we ’ re not in session at this point , ” Queens ’ Michael Gianaris , the deputy leader of the Democratic majority in the Senate , told the WBAI Max & Murphy Show .
I am confident we ’ ll get somewhere on it .
We just need to figure out exactly where we land.
” Gianaris ’ s bill stipulates that “ any residential tenant or small business commercial tenant in the state that has lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their place of business as a result of government ordered restrictions in response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID-19 ) , shall have all rent payments suspended for 90 days following the effective date of this act.
” Under the law , the waived rent would never be charged , nor would any late fees .
Leases that lapse during the 90 days would automatically renew .
The law would also mandate forgiveness of mortgage payments by landlords who face “ financial hardship ” as a result of the rent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office , support for the bill is overwhelming : Comments on the bill via the State Senate website were so voluminous , he says , they nearly crashed the server ( although not all of the remarks supported the bill ) .
National figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden have followed local leaders like Comptroller Scott Stringer and Council Speaker Corey Johnson in backing the measure .

“I want to see action taken now and I’ve asked the governor to do this by executive order since we’re not in session at this point,” Queens’ Michael Gianaris, the deputy leader of the Democratic majority in the Senate, told the WBAI Max & Murphy Show. I am confident we’ll get somewhere on it. We just need to figure out exactly where we land.”
Gianaris’s bill stipulates that “any residential tenant or small business commercial tenant in the state that has lost income or has been forced to close their place of business as a result of government ordered restrictions in response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), shall have all rent payments suspended for 90 days following the effective date of this act.”
Under the law, the waived rent would never be charged, nor would any late fees. Leases that lapse during the 90 days would automatically renew. The law would also mandate forgiveness of mortgage payments by landlords who face “financial hardship” as a result of the rent cancellation.
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According to Gianaris’s office, support for the bill is overwhelming: Comments on the bill via the State Senate website were so voluminous, he says, they nearly crashed the server (although not all of the remarks supported the bill). National figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden have followed local leaders like Comptroller Scott Stringer and Council Speaker Corey Johnson in backing the measure.
citylimits.org/2020/04/16/democratic-leader-the-rent-is-being-canceled-whether-we-authorize-it-or-not/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--ICUs under strain as NYC’s new coronavirus patients are sicker than ever

Coronavirus patients arriving at New York City ’ s hospitals are increasingly already very sick with the deadly disease — @ @ @ @ @ units to their limits or even beyond , The Post has learned .
Councilman Francisco @ @ @ @ @ whose district covers hard-hit Elmhurst Hospital , said the emergency room there “ has kind @ @ @ @ @ that big tidal wave ” but noted that “ they ’ re at capacity in @ @ @ @ @ what it ’ s saying is that the people who are coming in are coming @ @ @ @ @ ” said Moya , who formerly worked as the hospital ’ s director of business @ @ @ @ @ is now the place where they still have a challenge there.
” A nurse at @ @ @ @ @ Hospital likewise said that while it ’ s no longer “ so insane in the @ @ @ @ @ ICU was “ actually where the crazy s–t is happening.
” “ When we take @ @ @ @ @ ’ s insane , ” the nurse said .

Coronavirus patients arriving at New York City’s hospitals are increasingly already very sick with the deadly disease — and are pushing intensive care units to their limits or even beyond, The Post has learned.
Councilman Francisco Moya (D-Queens), whose district covers hard-hit Elmhurst Hospital, said the emergency room there “has kind of stabilized since we saw that big tidal wave” but noted that “they’re at capacity in the ICU.”
“So what it’s saying is that the people who are coming in are coming in at critical stages,” said Moya, who formerly worked as the hospital’s director of business development.
“The ICU is now the place where they still have a challenge there.”
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A nurse at Manhattan’s Mount Sinai Hospital likewise said that while it’s no longer “so insane in the emergency department,” the ICU was “actually where the crazy s–t is happening.”
“When we take patients up there, it’s insane,” the nurse said.
nypost.com/2020/04/16/icus-under-strain-as-nycs-coronavirus-patients-are-sicker-than-ever/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Citizen blasts US on viral video. He is 100% right!

Why is it we all are screaming the same thing and they can just ignore us ?
I don ’ @ @ @ @ @ vote for , we need to help out our citizens .
This is really not @ @ @ @ @ let alone the moral issues .

Why is it we all are screaming the same thing and they can just ignore us? I don’t care what party you vote for, we need to help out our citizens. This is really not good for national security, let alone the moral issues.
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AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--To achieve ‘herd immunity’ against a virus, at least 50% of the population has to be immune.

That means 50 % of us need to get COVID-19 before “ herd immunity ” kicks in .
Current death @ @ @ @ @ US : 5.1 %

That means 50% of us need to get COVID-19 before “herd immunity” kicks in.
To achieve 'herd immunity' against a virus, at least 50% of the population has to be immune. Experts say the US is nowhere near achieving herd immunity for the coronavirus pic.twitter.com/jFkKN4egY8 — China Xinhua News (@XHNews) April 17, 2020
Current death rate of COVID-19 in the US: 5.1%
Pop. of US: 328.2 million
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50 % of US population: 164.1 million
5.1% of 164.1 million: 8,369,100 people.
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--The Big Shale Short: Twitter Traders Make Millions On The Oil Price Crash

If one day Hollywood picks up a movie to make about this year ’ s decline in the U.S. oil industry , it could call it ‘ The Big Shale Short , ’ after the 2015 film ‘ The Big Short.
’ The blockbuster from 2015 tells the true story of a bunch of investors who bet against the U.S. housing market before the subprime mortgage crisis and the market collapse in 2008 , making millions of US dollars from their shorts .
‘ The Big Shale Short ’ may have just found its lead characters .
On Twitter .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , banded under the Energy FinTwit ( # EFT ) hashtag , have expressed for years their bearish views about U.S. shale .
They have been shorting U.S. energy stocks for months .
And the oil price collapse made them millions .
Not that anyone could have predicted the coronavirus pandemic and the demand collapse that sent WTI Crude prices down to $ 20 a barrel .
That ’ s why such events are called ‘ black swans.
’ Yet , the bearish outlier oil analysts who were shorting shale stocks–even when major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the oil market is over ’ or ‘ the shale growth decline in 2020 is inevitable but is ultimately good for prices and stocks ’ –were vindicated by the collapsing oil prices .
Some of those traders made millions off the price crash in early March .
BRV @ WillRayValentin , for example , told Reuters he made US $ 4 million in the week March 9-16 , when oil prices collapsed in the wake of the OPEC+ break-up and the start of Saudi Arabia ’ s price war for market share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up off the street , ” BRV told Reuters on the phone .
The ‘ big shale short ’ Energy Fintwit group has gained popularity in recent months , and its most prominent members have thousands of followers each—more than the followers of some energy analysts at investment banks .
This goes to show that ‘ outlier ’ analysts could be as right about the market as all the other investment banks combined .
Some of the clients of banks such as UBS and investment groups such as Pickering Energy Partners follow the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more about its members , so the ‘ mainstream ’ analysts follow on Twitter the Energy FinTwit bunch and even take into consideration some # EFT posts in their analyses .
“ The Whiting is on the wall ” The EFT group made one very prescient call about a U.S. shale company .
At the end of October , @ WillRayValentin , @ energycredit1 , and @ Oil_Gonif published their research on Whiting Petroleum Corporation , once one of the top producers in the Bakken .
Whiting Petroleum ’ s stock is “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ excluding option value , ” they said , noting that the company had debt maturities in March 2020 and April 2021 and was likely overstating its reserves , based on the EFT people ’ s analysis of more than 2,000 individual wells .
“ The Whiting is on the wall , ” they said , adding that “ Oil is the only material driver of WLL stock price currently.
” This was on October 31 , 2019 .
On April 1 , 2020 , Whiting Petroleum Corporation said it had filed for bankruptcy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the oil price war and the coronavirus pandemic that sent oil prices to $ 20 .
“ Given the severe downturn in oil and gas prices driven by uncertainty around the duration of the Saudi / Russia oil price war and the COVID-19 pandemic , the Company ’ s Board of Directors came to the conclusion that the principal terms of the financial restructuring negotiated with our creditors provides the best path forward for the Company , ” said Bradley J. Holly , the company ’ s chairman , president and CEO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group said Whiting Petroleum was worth nothing , Goldman Sachs was saying go long on fracking , with the assumption that the decline in U.S. shale growth is just a temporary blip , and it could take a year or two before the stalled growth brings the market back into balance for prices to rise .
As it turned out , no one – Goldman Sachs or anyone – could have predicted the fact that not only will the U.S. shale growth flatten but that producers will be fighting for survival this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capex , lay off staff , and find storage for their unwanted barrels while the U.S. benchmark oil trades at $ 20 and regional grades are in the teens and single-digits .
Five months ago , no one could have predicted the current 30 million bpd demand collapse in April as the COVID-19 pandemic wipes out a decade of oil demand growth .
The EFT group on Twitter couldn ’ t have predicted these events , either .
But they are having a field day these days—proving that in the oil market even @ @ @ @ @ @ @

By Tsvetana Paraskova
If one day Hollywood picks up a movie to make about this year’s decline in the U.S. oil industry, it could call it ‘The Big Shale Short,’ after the 2015 film ‘The Big Short.’
The blockbuster from 2015 tells the true story of a bunch of investors who bet against the U.S. housing market before the subprime mortgage crisis and the market collapse in 2008, making millions of US dollars from their shorts.
‘The Big Shale Short’ may have just found its lead characters. On Twitter.
A bunch of petroleum engineers and traders, banded under the Energy FinTwit (#EFT) hashtag, have expressed for years their bearish views about U.S. shale. They have been shorting U.S. energy stocks for months. And the oil price collapse made them millions.
Not that anyone could have predicted the coronavirus pandemic and the demand collapse that sent WTI Crude prices down to $20 a barrel. That’s why such events are called ‘black swans.’
Yet, the bearish outlier oil analysts who were shorting shale stocks–even when major investment banks were saying the ‘worst in the oil market is over’ or ‘the shale growth decline in 2020 is inevitable but is ultimately good for prices and stocks’–were vindicated by the collapsing oil prices.
The Million-Dollar Payoffs
Some of those traders made millions off the price crash in early March.
BRV @WillRayValentin, for example, told Reuters he made US$4 million in the week March 9-16, when oil prices collapsed in the wake of the OPEC+ break-up and the start of Saudi Arabia’s price war for market share.
“It was like picking money up off the street,” BRV told Reuters on the phone.
“I’m probably short every stock I mention,” BRV’s Twitter profile reads.
The ‘big shale short’ Energy Fintwit group has gained popularity in recent months, and its most prominent members have thousands of followers each—more than the followers of some energy analysts at investment banks.
This goes to show that ‘outlier’ analysts could be as right about the market as all the other investment banks combined.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Some of the clients of banks such as UBS and investment groups such as Pickering Energy Partners follow the #EFT group and want to know more about its members, so the ‘mainstream’ analysts follow on Twitter the Energy FinTwit bunch and even take into consideration some #EFT posts in their analyses.
“The Whiting is on the wall”
The EFT group made one very prescient call about a U.S. shale company.
At the end of October, @WillRayValentin, @energycredit1, and @Oil_Gonif published their research on Whiting Petroleum Corporation, once one of the top producers in the Bakken.
Whiting Petroleum’s stock is “worth $0 at current strip pricing excluding option value,” they said, noting that the company had debt maturities in March 2020 and April 2021 and was likely overstating its reserves, based on the EFT people’s analysis of more than 2,000 individual wells.
“The Whiting is on the wall,” they said, adding that “Oil is the only material driver of WLL stock price currently.” This was on October 31, 2019.
On April 1, 2020, Whiting Petroleum Corporation said it had filed for bankruptcy protection, becoming the first major victim of the oil price war and the coronavirus pandemic that sent oil prices to $20.
“Given the severe downturn in oil and gas prices driven by uncertainty around the duration of the Saudi / Russia oil price war and the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company’s Board of Directors came to the conclusion that the principal terms of the financial restructuring negotiated with our creditors provides the best path forward for the Company,” said Bradley J. Holly, the company’s chairman, president and CEO.
At the time when the EFT group said Whiting Petroleum was worth nothing, Goldman Sachs was saying go long on fracking, with the assumption that the decline in U.S. shale growth is just a temporary blip, and it could take a year or two before the stalled growth brings the market back into balance for prices to rise.
The Black Swan
As it turned out, no one – Goldman Sachs or anyone – could have predicted the fact that not only will the U.S. shale growth flatten but that producers will be fighting for survival this year, rushing to idle rigs, cut capex, lay off staff, and find storage for their unwanted barrels while the U.S. benchmark oil trades at $20 and regional grades are in the teens and single-digits.
Five months ago, no one could have predicted the current 30 million bpd demand collapse in April as the COVID-19 pandemic wipes out a decade of oil demand growth.
The EFT group on Twitter couldn’t have predicted these events, either. But they are having a field day these days—proving that in the oil market even the outlier projections could become mainstream.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Thanks to Lockdowns, State and Local Tax Revenues Are Plummeting

Unlike the federal government , state and local governments in America can ’ t just create money out of thin air .
So when tax revenues go down , that money is simply not available to the state legislatures and city councils anymore .
These governments either have to borrow the money or raise taxes and hope the tax hike itself doesn ’ t cause total revenue to fall .
The tax revenues in these states , cities , and counties are heavily dependent on economy activity .
That is , sales must take place for sales tax to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state income taxes to be collected .
Thanks to government-coerced economic shutdowns—on top of the severe recession currently brewing—tax revenues are plummeting .
And many governments are already expecting the hit to be larger than it was during the Great Recession .
These realities will put pressure on politicians to relax their social distancing rules in the hope that local taxpayers can again earn money and generate sales taxes in their jurisdictions .
A failure to do so will mean layoffs for government employees and large cuts to government budgets .
Politicians may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether you have a job .
But they care deeply about their government budgets and jobs for their friends .
This , perhaps more than anything else , will hasten moves by state and local politicians toward allowing the US economy to function again .
In Ohio , for example , “ Gov .
Mike DeWine called last month for the directors in his Cabinet to prepare for cuts as large as 20 % to their agency budgets for the next 15 months , as the state prepared for the expected downturn in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy research group is warning state lawmakers to prepare for a ‘ dramatic collapse ’ in state revenue , estimating a tax revenue shortfall of $ 1.8 billion to $ 3 billion over the next 15 months.
” In Washington State , “ a presentation last week by the Republican leaders in the state legislature forecast a $ 3 billion to $ 6 billion fall in tax revenue because of business closures related to COVID-19 ” That represents about a 10 percent cut to the budget .
Colorado is looking at a 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well , and Arizona predicts a 20 percent cut to revenue .
California ’ s budget reserves will soon disappear , and it fears “ significant spending cuts.
” And these are just preliminary numbers .
In Ohio , city governments are beginning to realize that “ Soaring job losses statewide due to the coronavirus pandemic will hit city budgets hard.
” Meanwhile in Denver , the city is admitting that the impact this time will be worse than the Great Recession .
City departments are being asked to shave $ 180 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion budget .
And these are just anticipated losses .
Demand for Welfare Programs Will Grow as Americans Become Impoverished State and local governments have yet to feel the strain of massive growth in the demand for poverty relief now that millions of Americans are out of work .
As political scientist Raymond Scheppach points out , Medicaid spending—which makes up over 28 percent of state spending now— ” will explode , ” especially since many states have been busy expanding the program over the past decade .
With millions of homes taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect more demand for housing assistance and more applications for Medicaid .
Expect more homelessness and all the local spending that it entails .
Expect more strain on budgets in general .
As the need for welfare increases—and as revenues decline overall—cities and states will nonetheless need to cut somewhere .
In many cases this will mean cuts to “ public safety ” programs .
Denver , for instance , is looking at cutting police budgets .
The city of Boulder has already furloughed seven hundred city employees for more than two months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are supposed to be ready to arrest and prosecute you for violating social distancing violations ?
Many of them are looking at pay cuts .
Some will be lucky to have a job by year ’ s end .
Although some budget hawks might think this is all good , the cuts to public safety won ’ t look quite as charming if thousands of desperate , unemployed workers turn to civil unrest .
Naturally , calls for federal bailouts of state and local governments are intensifying .
Governments in New York want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Brookings Institution wants “ massive and immediate ” bailouts for state and local governments , including a quarter-trillion dollars just for the Community Development Block Grant ( CDBG ) program .
Naturally , Brookings wants the feds to start pouring more money into Medicaid as well .
And that ’ s just “ initially.
” It ’ s assumed that more bailouts will be needed later .
After all , this is not a one-quarter or one-year problem .
After the Great Recession in 2009 , for instance , the Denver @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2013.
” Federal Bailouts Allow State and Local Politicians to Ignore Local Taxpayers Federal bailouts certainly offer dollars for filling in budget holes .
But using federal dollars to replace state and local revenues offers a political solution for state and local politicians as well .
If state and local governments rely on state and local taxes to keep their governments up and running , this means economy-crushing policies such as the COVID-19 lockdowns bring with them their own consequences for politicians : state and local politicians may not care if scores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but when governments depend on tax revenues from within their own jurisdictions , the destruction of the private sector will also destroy government budgets .
That means that at least some discipline is built into the local regulatory state , which must be careful to not kill the golden goose .
The federal bailouts offer a way out : the more state and local governments rely on federal “ assistance , ” bailouts , and grants , the less they have to care about what the local taxpayers think .
State governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their budgets from federal grants and other sources .
The larger this number becomes , the more these governments can afford to impose high costs on local taxpayers with little regard to whether these taxpayers can produce anything or earn a living .
Local tax revenue plummets ?
Just go the federal governments and its mountains of freshly created money .
Then go back to the taxpayers and claim : “ Look !
We can keep paying for all these programs and didn ’ t raise your taxes !
” What these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they plan to continue imposing draconian regulations and wealth-killing taxes on the locals , because they don ’ t have to care if the locals are economically successful .
The money now comes from somewhere outside the state or city .
Fortunately , there are limits to how much the federal government can fund every state , county , and city in America .
This is true even in our world , where the US government blithely increases its debt by trillions of dollars in just a couple of weeks .
So , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least in part—ensure that they don ’ t completely destroy their local economies .
This is no doubt a significant factor in why even states such as California and New York have stopped talking about locking down their economies for a year or more , until there are “ no new cases , no deaths for a period of time , ” or “ until there ’ s a vaccine.
” This is pure fantasy unless one is prepared to send state , county , and municipal governments into bankruptcy and budgetary collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how many governors and mayors are willing to do that .

by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute
Unlike the federal government, state and local governments in America can’t just create money out of thin air. So when tax revenues go down, that money is simply not available to the state legislatures and city councils anymore. These governments either have to borrow the money or raise taxes and hope the tax hike itself doesn’t cause total revenue to fall.
The tax revenues in these states, cities, and counties are heavily dependent on economy activity. That is, sales must take place for sales tax to be collected. Income must be earned for state income taxes to be collected.
Thanks to government-coerced economic shutdowns—on top of the severe recession currently brewing—tax revenues are plummeting. And many governments are already expecting the hit to be larger than it was during the Great Recession. These realities will put pressure on politicians to relax their social distancing rules in the hope that local taxpayers can again earn money and generate sales taxes in their jurisdictions. A failure to do so will mean layoffs for government employees and large cuts to government budgets.
Politicians may not care about your household budget or whether you have a job. But they care deeply about their government budgets and jobs for their friends. This, perhaps more than anything else, will hasten moves by state and local politicians toward allowing the US economy to function again.
Tax Revenues Are Hit by Economic Stagnation
In Ohio, for example, “Gov. Mike DeWine called last month for the directors in his Cabinet to prepare for cuts as large as 20% to their agency budgets for the next 15 months, as the state prepared for the expected downturn in revenue.”
In Massachusetts, “A policy research group is warning state lawmakers to prepare for a ‘dramatic collapse’ in state revenue, estimating a tax revenue shortfall of $1.8 billion to $3 billion over the next 15 months.”
In Washington State, “a presentation last week by the Republican leaders in the state legislature forecast a $3 billion to $6 billion fall in tax revenue because of business closures related to COVID-19” That represents about a 10 percent cut to the budget.
Colorado is looking at a 10 percent cut to its state budget as well, and Arizona predicts a 20 percent cut to revenue. California’s budget reserves will soon disappear, and it fears “significant spending cuts.”
And these are just preliminary numbers.
Municipal governments will face similar problems.
In Ohio, city governments are beginning to realize that “Soaring job losses statewide due to the coronavirus pandemic will hit city budgets hard.”
Meanwhile in Denver, the city is admitting that the impact this time will be worse than the Great Recession. City departments are being asked to shave $180 million off the city’s $1.5 billion budget.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And these are just anticipated losses.
Demand for Welfare Programs Will Grow as Americans Become Impoverished
State and local governments have yet to feel the strain of massive growth in the demand for poverty relief now that millions of Americans are out of work.
As political scientist Raymond Scheppach points out, Medicaid spending—which makes up over 28 percent of state spending now—”will explode,” especially since many states have been busy expanding the program over the past decade.
With millions of homes taking big cuts to the household budget, expect more demand for housing assistance and more applications for Medicaid. Expect more homelessness and all the local spending that it entails. Expect more strain on budgets in general. As the need for welfare increases—and as revenues decline overall—cities and states will nonetheless need to cut somewhere.
In many cases this will mean cuts to “public safety” programs. Denver, for instance, is looking at cutting police budgets. The city of Boulder has already furloughed seven hundred city employees for more than two months.
All those cops and bureaucrats who are supposed to be ready to arrest and prosecute you for violating social distancing violations? Many of them are looking at pay cuts. Some will be lucky to have a job by year’s end.
Although some budget hawks might think this is all good, the cuts to public safety won’t look quite as charming if thousands of desperate, unemployed workers turn to civil unrest.
Naturally, calls for federal bailouts of state and local governments are intensifying. Governments in New York want US taxpayers to bail out the state. The Brookings Institution wants “massive and immediate” bailouts for state and local governments, including a quarter-trillion dollars just for the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program. Naturally, Brookings wants the feds to start pouring more money into Medicaid as well.
And that’s just “initially.” It’s assumed that more bailouts will be needed later. After all, this is not a one-quarter or one-year problem. After the Great Recession in 2009, for instance, the Denver city government was “still cutting budgets in 2013.”
Federal Bailouts Allow State and Local Politicians to Ignore Local Taxpayers
Federal bailouts certainly offer dollars for filling in budget holes. But using federal dollars to replace state and local revenues offers a political solution for state and local politicians as well.
If state and local governments rely on state and local taxes to keep their governments up and running, this means economy-crushing policies such as the COVID-19 lockdowns bring with them their own consequences for politicians: state and local politicians may not care if scores of local businesses declare bankruptcy and disappear, but when governments depend on tax revenues from within their own jurisdictions, the destruction of the private sector will also destroy government budgets. That means that at least some discipline is built into the local regulatory state, which must be careful to not kill the golden goose.
The federal bailouts offer a way out: the more state and local governments rely on federal “assistance,” bailouts, and grants, the less they have to care about what the local taxpayers think. State governments already receive on average about 30 percent of their budgets from federal grants and other sources. The larger this number becomes, the more these governments can afford to impose high costs on local taxpayers with little regard to whether these taxpayers can produce anything or earn a living. Local tax revenue plummets? Just go the federal governments and its mountains of freshly created money. Then go back to the taxpayers and claim: “Look! We can keep paying for all these programs and didn’t raise your taxes!” What these politicians don’t mention is that they plan to continue imposing draconian regulations and wealth-killing taxes on the locals, because they don’t have to care if the locals are economically successful. The money now comes from somewhere outside the state or city.
Fortunately, there are limits to how much the federal government can fund every state, county, and city in America. This is true even in our world, where the US government blithely increases its debt by trillions of dollars in just a couple of weeks. So, states and cities will still have to—at least in part—ensure that they don’t completely destroy their local economies. This is no doubt a significant factor in why even states such as California and New York have stopped talking about locking down their economies for a year or more, until there are “no new cases, no deaths for a period of time,” or “until there’s a vaccine.” This is pure fantasy unless one is prepared to send state, county, and municipal governments into bankruptcy and budgetary collapse. We’ll soon find out how many governors and mayors are willing to do that.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--We are facing both inflation and disinflation at once

Before we even get to the issue of inflation data we have been provided an international perspective from China Statistics .
This provides several perspectives .
Firstly there is clear deflation there and as this gets confused let me be clear that it is a fall in aggregate demand and whether you believe the China data or not there has clearly been a large fall .
That is likely to have disinflationary influences but is not necessary the same thing as many assume .
After all China has had an area where the heat is on as Glenn Frey would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to this .
Vegetable prices were up by 9 % too adding to the food inflation and this led to the Chinese being poorer overall .
Regular readers will be aware that a feature of my work is to look at the impact of inflation on the ordinary worker and consumer as opposed to central bankers who love to torture the numbers to get the answer they wanted all along .
An example of this is the use of core inflation which excludes two of the most vital components which are food and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ European measure called CPI in the UK you miss a dair bit of shelter as well as owner-occupied housing is ignored .
One of its policymakers Silvana Tenreyro was drumming a familiar beat yesterday .
Many of you are no doubt thinking that higher prices will be “ looked through ” and falls will led to some form of a central banking war dance .
In an accident of timing we were updated on this subject by the Office for National Statistics yesterday as well .
Firstly let me welcome this new initiative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely to be too low as to be fair even they admit .
If you look at the Statsusernet website I have made some suggestions but for now let me point out that something were prices are likely to have shot up ( face masks ) have been dropped .
The overall picture is as below .
Up is the new down Silvana seems to be heading in another direction though .
If she was aware of the numbers above maybe she has a sense of humour .
Sadly we then get an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Revolution must have seen quite large disinflation and in modern times areas of technology have seen enormous advances and price falls .
This next bit is wrong too .
If the inflation target of 2 % per annum is hit as is her claimed objective then that is a clear inflation risk premium that needs to be paid .
We are back to the central banking fantasy that 2 % per annum is of significance rather than plucked out of thin air because it seemed right .
Indeed she continues in the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ merge both deflationary and disinflationary pressures and as she says there has already been a policy response .
That gets awkward when she shifts to agreeing with me about inflation trends.. Why ?
Again we are in agreement .
Then she is in agreement again .
Trouble is she had already acted .
A clear sign of a disinflationary trend is the price of crude oil .
There are all sorts of issues with measuring it but according to oilprice.com the WTI benchmark is around US $ 25 and Brent Crude around US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ halved compared to this time last year .
Silvana looks at this with relation to labour costs and maybe my influence is beginning to spead as she wonders about the numbers .
We diverge on the fact that I think there has been mismeasurement .
As to the weakness in commercial rents I think most of you can figure that one out merely be looking at your local high street .
Let me welcome a Bank of England policymaker actually looking at inflation developments and doing some thinking .
But as an external @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further .
For example I know she is looking mostly at commercial rents but there have been similar issues with ordinary rents but where is the challenge to these numbers being foisted on the owner-occupied housing sector .
Or indeed the attempt to gerrymander the inflation data by replacing house prices and mortgage rates with Imputed Rents in the Retail Prices Index ?
If you like it will be a case of one inflation measure to rule them all and in the darkness bind them .
At least the consultation has now been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not they were hoping to get away with running it during the lockdown .
As to the changes let me hand you over to the RPI-CPI User Group of the Royal Statistical Society .
Looking ahead we will see pockets of inflation in for example medical areas and as some are reporting essential goods too .
Or rather what are called non-core by central bankers and Ivory Towers .
In other areas like fuel costs we will see disinflation .
But further ahead as we see production of some items brought back to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher prices .
So our central bankers have abandoned inflation targeting if you look several years ahead as they are supposed to .

by Shaun Richards
Before we even get to the issue of inflation data we have been provided an international perspective from China Statistics.
According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 20,650.4 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8 percent at comparable prices.
This provides several perspectives. Firstly there is clear deflation there and as this gets confused let me be clear that it is a fall in aggregate demand and whether you believe the China data or not there has clearly been a large fall. That is likely to have disinflationary influences but is not necessary the same thing as many assume.
After all China has had an area where the heat is on as Glenn Frey would say for some time.
pork up by 122.5 percent, specifically, its prices went up by 116.4 percent in March, 18.8 percentage points lower than February.
This contributed to this.
Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 14.9 percent year on year;
Vegetable prices were up by 9% too adding to the food inflation and this led to the Chinese being poorer overall.
In March, the consumer price went up by 4.3 percent…….In the first quarter, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 8,561 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8 percent year on year, or a real decrease of 3.9 percent after deducting price factors.
Regular readers will be aware that a feature of my work is to look at the impact of inflation on the ordinary worker and consumer as opposed to central bankers who love to torture the numbers to get the answer they wanted all along. An example of this is the use of core inflation which excludes two of the most vital components which are food and energy. Also if you use the European measure called CPI in the UK you miss a dair bit of shelter as well as owner-occupied housing is ignored.
The Bank of England
One of its policymakers Silvana Tenreyro was drumming a familiar beat yesterday.
During Covid-19, large, temporary changes in relative prices and consumption expenditure shares will make inflation data difficult to interpret.
Many of you are no doubt thinking that higher prices will be “looked through” and falls will led to some form of a central banking war dance. In an accident of timing we were updated on this subject by the Office for National Statistics yesterday as well.
Prices for the HDP basket increased by 1.8% from 30 March to 5 April (week 3) to 6 April to 12 April (week 4) with prices for all long-life food items decreasing by 1.5% and all household and hygiene items increasing by 1.1%. At a more detailed level, prices for pet food and rice rose by 8.4% and 5.8% respectively, while prices of pasta sauce fell by 4.5% (note that the size of the sample means that sometimes single retailers can contribute to substantial movements at the item level).
Firstly let me welcome this new initiative from the ONS which in fact is likely to be too low as to be fair even they admit. If you look at the Statsusernet website I have made some suggestions but for now let me point out that something were prices are likely to have shot up ( face masks) have been dropped. The overall picture is as below.
Movements in the all HDP items index show a stable increase over time, with an increase of 4.4% since week 1. Pet food has a high weight in the all HDP items basket and is one of the main drivers of this change.
Up is the new down
Silvana seems to be heading in another direction though.
.Current policy actions will help counterbalance some of
this underlying weakness in inflation.
If she was aware of the numbers above maybe she has a sense of humour. Sadly we then get an outright misrepresentation.
Low and stable inflation is an essential pre-requisite for longer-term economic prosperity.
For example the Industrial Revolution must have seen quite large disinflation and in modern times areas of technology have seen enormous advances and price falls. This next bit is wrong too.
And it allows households, businesses and governments to finance their spending without introducing inflation risk premia to their borrowing costs.
If the inflation target of 2% per annum is hit as is her claimed objective then that is a clear inflation risk premium that needs to be paid. We are back to the central banking fantasy that 2% per annum is of significance rather than plucked out of thin air because it seemed right.
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Indeed she continues in the same vein.
Our recent policy decisions will help ensure price stability by mitigating any deflationary pressures arising
from recent events.
Just for clarity central bankers merge both deflationary and disinflationary pressures and as she says there has already been a policy response.
The MPC’s policy actions have involved reducing Bank Rate from 0.75% to 0.1%, introducing a Term
Funding scheme with additional incentives for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (TFSME) and increasing
the size of our asset purchase programme, or quantitative easing, by £200 billion.
That gets awkward when she shifts to agreeing with me about inflation trends..
The exact effect of these issues, or even the sign of their effect, is going to be difficult to gauge.
Why? Again we are in agreement.
The key conceptual challenge is that there have been large shifts in spending patterns, which will change the
representative household consumption basket. Spending on social consumption has stopped almost
completely, for example, while spending on essentials from supermarkets has increased markedly.
Then she is in agreement again.
There are also likely to be considerable shifts in the prices of some goods still in high demand relative to
those no longer being purchased
Trouble is she had already acted.
Disinflation
A clear sign of a disinflationary trend is the price of crude oil. There are all sorts of issues with measuring it but according to oilprice.com the WTI benchmark is around US $25 and Brent Crude around US $28. Both have more than halved compared to this time last year.
Silvana looks at this with relation to labour costs and maybe my influence is beginning to spead as she wonders about the numbers.
While not mismeasurement per se, measured
productivity growth has been stronger in consumer goods producing sectors than in aggregate. Thinking
about how the consumption basket relates to inflation behaviour may be crucial over the coming years, given
the vast changes we are currently seeing in spending patterns.
We diverge on the fact that I think there has been mismeasurement.
As to the weakness in commercial rents I think most of you can figure that one out merely be looking at your local high street.
There are a range of possible explanations for the weakness in rent inflation over the past few years.
Comment
Let me welcome a Bank of England policymaker actually looking at inflation developments and doing some thinking. But as an external member I think one should be going further. For example I know she is looking mostly at commercial rents but there have been similar issues with ordinary rents but where is the challenge to these numbers being foisted on the owner-occupied housing sector. Or indeed the attempt to gerrymander the inflation data by replacing house prices and mortgage rates with Imputed Rents in the Retail Prices Index?
The UK Statistics Authority (the Authority) and HM Treasury are jointly consulting on reforming the methodology of the Retail Prices Index (RPI).
If you like it will be a case of one inflation measure to rule them all and in the darkness bind them. At least the consultation has now been extended until August as believe it or not they were hoping to get away with running it during the lockdown. As to the changes let me hand you over to the RPI-CPI User Group of the Royal Statistical Society.
1. The UKSA is consulting on how to splice the RPI and CPIH together – effectively replacing RPI with CPIH, but retaining the name RPI.
2. The Treasury is consulting on when (between 2025 and 2030) this change should take place.
Importantly, neither is consulting on whether this change should be made.
Looking ahead we will see pockets of inflation in for example medical areas and as some are reporting essential goods too. Or rather what are called non-core by central bankers and Ivory Towers.
My usual essential shopping has cost between £32 – £38 for months, now jumped to £42 – £48. Inflation, the quiet poverty maker. ( @KeithCameron5 )
In other areas like fuel costs we will see disinflation. But further ahead as we see production of some items brought back to domestic industry we are likely to see higher prices. So our central bankers have abandoned inflation targeting if you look several years ahead as they are supposed to.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--COVID19 OPINION: The Government is in a corner caused by compromised advice, & it is going to cost u

COVID19 OPINION: The Government is in a corner caused by compromised advice, & it is going to cost us dear

There is a way of measuring exactly how stupid , scared , delusional or inattentive the average citizen is considered to be by the Unelected State and its whores .
Put simply , the more sloppy , contradictory , far-fetched or illogical the 3 % ’ s rationales and explanations are , then the more confident the élites are that they could blame COVID19 on Mary Poppins and get away with it .
Ever since the Useful Idiot Modelling tendency proclaimed Climate Change both an established fact and entirely the fault of humanity ’ s CO2 output , the reality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their cover stories .
Each year they become more diaphanous , until the Emperor is naked….at which point the security services and tame media insist that the King ’ s clothes are merely invisible , as opposed to absent .
It all began a long time ago with ‘ cameras are being installed here for your safety and protection ’ , followed by hotels saying ‘ in the interests of the environment , please only use those towels you really need ’ , then Clinton and his ‘ I did not have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ we ’ re giving you your own customer space online to make life easier for you ’ , ‘ we ’ ve developed zero-contact smart cards for your convenience ’ and now – at last ( but inevitably ) we have arrived at ‘ it ’ s important to lock you up at home for your own good ’ .
At the outset of the Corona molehill-into-mountain illusion , the most common thing we were told was “ wearing a surgical mask will not help protect you from this virus ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in charge ” began talking about obligatory wearing of face masks .
Boris Johnson said at first , if you feel ill , go home for seven days .
Then he said no , to be on the safe side , make that 15 days .
Then he caught the bloody thing himself .
Then it transpired that you could be incubating infectiously for up to 27 days with no symptoms at all .
And so the advice became Everyone Go Home .
Then the advice stopped .
Then Piers Morgan began to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Easter…because the line had by then become ‘ We must do everything to protect the NHS from being overloaded ’ .
So lots of commentators worked out that , with a six-week lockdown of NHS protection , that would work out ( in lost gdp ) to £13-30m per life saved depending on one ’ s estimate of non-presenting case totals and the unemployment benefits required .
Then Matt Hancock said , ‘ We ’ ll have to extend the lockdown because only 10 % of the population has built immunity , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an ’ all .
Then Matt caught the bloody thing .
Now we can all debate uphill and downdale about how hard it is when one ’ s surrounded by a cacophony of variously incompetent , conflicted , corrupt and Armageddonesque advice to keep one ’ s head and reach any kind of “ final ” decision .
But I have two counters to that : first , protecting the NHS ( at the obvious risk of complete social health meltdown in the longer term from gdp disaster ) is not a viable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote-centric Party-political calculation designed to emerge from the swamp smelling of Crabtree & Evelyn soap .
And second , we must surely be allowed to assume as taxpayers that the politicians and bureaucrats we elect and pay for repectively can add , subtract , multiply , divide , percentage and conclude .
The bottom line ( this afternoon , but who knows what this evening might bring ) is that conclusions aren ’ t being reached : in short , both contradiction and confusion continue to hold sway .
Yesterday , it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last “ until a vaccine is found ” .
So mad was that opinion , it took me until after 3 am this morning to get to sleep after having read it .
But then Dominic Raab ( deputising for Boris ) went to the podium and said , “ no end to lockdown for at least three weeks ” .
As the very earliest prediction of a vaccine is September , there ’ s obviously still a huge mismatch there .
Raab also said “ the social distancing recommendations do seem to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As per my points above , that isn ’ t the issue : the issue is one of balancing cost and immunity .
Written again – only this time larger , because it ’ s at the core of everything about this farcical situation : The issue is one of balancing cost and immunity .
I think we need more factual injection here…..and considerably less from Piers ’ gob .
Lockdown , it is claimed – that is , in government publicity throughout the Western world – will slow down the case rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ services to cope , and keep vulnerable people safer….that is , devoid of the somewhat irreversible death thing .
Some States have opted for hard lockdown , others for softer versions , others still to focus on strict care for the vulnerable with no lockdown .
The table below ( extracted from Worldometer this morning ) looks at the relative successes and failures : Now I realise that dozens of factors are in play here , but a month into the mission , the message of this table is that – based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t cutting it : not to beat about the bush too much , softer lockdowns work better than hard , and the top performer overall has to be Sweden ( because it has the lowest case rate ) followed by the US – which has done better than either of the hard lockdowns .
As ever in our history , Britain is sort of in the middle : the best of the lockdown options and the second-best case rate .
But there is muddle in the middle .
For Britain in fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the air : is the very high cost of very few additional lives saved worth the long-term damage to the economy at a key time in our newly attained “ independence ” from the EU ?
And for both the UK and everyone else , further – even bigger – questions are added : if the appalling liberty precedent set by Italy and France is worse than doing nothing , what ’ s the point of it ?
And if it ’ s going to be at least another four months before a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need trials of course ) , what ’ s the route out of this economically disastrous lockdown thing while we ’ re waiting ?
GSK and their somewhat tarnished new partners in crime Sanofi say their new vaccine won ’ t be in the market until November 2021 at the earliest .
Conclusion : for a whole plethora of mental health , economic , social and libertarian reasons , the lockdown strategy is unsustainable .
The Government isn ’ t saying this , but it should be .
They are in something of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Morgan , I don ’ t care what you think because , as always , you are approaching the issue with an open mouth and little or no thought for the consequences .
Also , you ’ re a serial liar , and your motives are questionable for reasons Messrs Tryle & Errah say I can ’ t go into .
Yet .
Contradiction , obfuscation and accusational smears are always going to set off the Hidden Agenda Geiger-counter .
Once again , for example , the syntax is coming back to vaccination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Blair , Macron and Gates are pushing the term “ new normal ” .
These are the same people who told us gdp growth is essential .
Along with their secret service co-workers , they call any critique of the narrative wild conspiracy theory , but anything from the CIA , the Sureté or MI6 intelligence .
Their new normal consists of restricted personal movement , obligatory immunisation , ID tattoos , tracing by low altitude satellite and attestations in order to be allowed out of one ’ s own home .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fifty years ago , we wouldn ’ t even have noticed – in the surgeries , the hospitals , the social stats and the crematoria .
We need a powerful and coordinated counter-narrative , and we need it now .
And as a starting point , can we all please for Heaven ’ s sake stop clapping .
You ’ re like performing fucking seals .

by John Ward
There is a way of measuring exactly how stupid, scared, delusional or inattentive the average citizen is considered to be by the Unelected State and its whores. Put simply, the more sloppy, contradictory, far-fetched or illogical the 3%’s rationales and explanations are, then the more confident the élites are that they could blame COVID19 on Mary Poppins and get away with it.
Ever since the Useful Idiot Modelling tendency proclaimed Climate Change both an established fact and entirely the fault of humanity’s CO2 output, the reality manipulators have become increasingly brazen and risible in their cover stories. Each year they become more diaphanous, until the Emperor is naked….at which point the security services and tame media insist that the King’s clothes are merely invisible, as opposed to absent.
It all began a long time ago with ‘cameras are being installed here for your safety and protection’, followed by hotels saying ‘in the interests of the environment, please only use those towels you really need’, then Clinton and his ‘I did not have sexual innercourse with that woman’, ‘we’re giving you your own customer space online to make life easier for you’, ‘we’ve developed zero-contact smart cards for your convenience’ and now – at last (but inevitably) we have arrived at ‘it’s important to lock you up at home for your own good’.
At the outset of the Corona molehill-into-mountain illusion, the most common thing we were told was “wearing a surgical mask will not help protect you from this virus”. Just six weeks later, those “in charge” began talking about obligatory wearing of face masks.
Boris Johnson said at first, if you feel ill, go home for seven days. Then he said no, to be on the safe side, make that 15 days. Then he caught the bloody thing himself. Then it transpired that you could be incubating infectiously for up to 27 days with no symptoms at all. And so the advice became Everyone Go Home. Then the advice stopped.
Then Piers Morgan began to rage about people going to parks over Easter…because the line had by then become ‘We must do everything to protect the NHS from being overloaded’. So lots of commentators worked out that, with a six-week lockdown of NHS protection, that would work out (in lost gdp) to £13-30m per life saved depending on one’s estimate of non-presenting case totals and the unemployment benefits required.
Then Matt Hancock said, ‘We’ll have to extend the lockdown because only 10% of the population has built immunity, they all hiding behind the sofa at home an’all. Then Matt caught the bloody thing.
Now we can all debate uphill and downdale about how hard it is when one’s surrounded by a cacophony of variously incompetent, conflicted, corrupt and Armageddonesque advice to keep one’s head and reach any kind of “final” decision. But I have two counters to that: first, protecting the NHS (at the obvious risk of complete social health meltdown in the longer term from gdp disaster) is not a viable justification for action – it is a vote-centric Party-political calculation designed to emerge from the swamp smelling of Crabtree & Evelyn soap. And second, we must surely be allowed to assume as taxpayers that the politicians and bureaucrats we elect and pay for repectively can add, subtract, multiply, divide, percentage and conclude.
The bottom line (this afternoon, but who knows what this evening might bring) is that conclusions aren’t being reached: in short, both contradiction and confusion continue to hold sway.
Yesterday, it was widely predicted that the UK lockdown would last “until a vaccine is found”. So mad was that opinion, it took me until after 3 am this morning to get to sleep after having read it.
But then Dominic Raab (deputising for Boris) went to the podium and said, “no end to lockdown for at least three weeks”. As the very earliest prediction of a vaccine is September, there’s obviously still a huge mismatch there. Raab also said “the social distancing recommendations do seem to be slowing down the virus”. As per my points above, that isn’t the issue: the issue is one of balancing cost and immunity.
Written again – only this time larger, because it’s at the core of everything about this farcical situation:
The issue is one of balancing cost and immunity.
I think we need more factual injection here…..and considerably less from Piers’ gob.
Lockdown, it is claimed – that is, in government publicity throughout the Western world – will slow down the case rate of COVID19, allow the public health services to cope, and keep vulnerable people safer….that is, devoid of the somewhat irreversible death thing.
Some States have opted for hard lockdown, others for softer versions, others still to focus on strict care for the vulnerable with no lockdown. The table below (extracted from Worldometer this morning) looks at the relative successes and failures:
Cases per mill Deaths per mill
Hard lockdown Italy 2794 367
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Hard lockdown France 2528 275
Soft lockdown UK 1519 202
Softer lockdown US 2049 105
No l’down Sweden 1242 132
Now I realise that dozens of factors are in play here, but a month into the mission, the message of this table is that – based on its own success criteria – lockdown isn’t cutting it: not to beat about the bush too much, softer lockdowns work better than hard, and the top performer overall has to be Sweden (because it has the lowest case rate) followed by the US – which has done better than either of the hard lockdowns.
As ever in our history, Britain is sort of in the middle: the best of the lockdown options and the second-best case rate. But there is muddle in the middle.
For Britain in fact, two simple questions still hang in the air: is the very high cost of very few additional lives saved worth the long-term damage to the economy at a key time in our newly attained “independence” from the EU?
And for both the UK and everyone else, further – even bigger – questions are added: if the appalling liberty precedent set by Italy and France is worse than doing nothing, what’s the point of it? And if it’s going to be at least another four months before a vaccine is available (which will then need trials of course), what’s the route out of this economically disastrous lockdown thing while we’re waiting?
GSK and their somewhat tarnished new partners in crime Sanofi say their new vaccine won’t be in the market until November 2021 at the earliest.
Conclusion: for a whole plethora of mental health, economic, social and libertarian reasons, the lockdown strategy is unsustainable.
The Government isn’t saying this, but it should be. They are in something of a muddle. And no, Piers Morgan, I don’t care what you think because, as always, you are approaching the issue with an open mouth and little or no thought for the consequences. Also, you’re a serial liar, and your motives are questionable for reasons Messrs Tryle & Errah say I can’t go into. Yet.
Contradiction, obfuscation and accusational smears are always going to set off the Hidden Agenda Geiger-counter.
Once again, for example, the syntax is coming back to vaccination. All the Global Order loons like Blair, Macron and Gates are pushing the term “new normal”.
These are the same people who told us gdp growth is essential. Along with their secret service co-workers, they call any critique of the narrative wild conspiracy theory, but anything from the CIA, the Sureté or MI6 intelligence.
Their new normal consists of restricted personal movement, obligatory immunisation, ID tattoos, tracing by low altitude satellite and attestations in order to be allowed out of one’s own home.
And for what? For a virus which, fifty years ago, we wouldn’t even have noticed – in the surgeries, the hospitals, the social stats and the crematoria.
We need a powerful and coordinated counter-narrative, and we need it now.
And as a starting point, can we all please for Heaven’s sake stop clapping. You’re like performing fucking seals.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Number of people with coronavirus infections may be dozens of times higher than the number of confir

Number of people with coronavirus infections may be dozens of times higher than the number of confirmed cases

An antibody study carried out by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare ( THL ) has found that the number of people infected with coronavirus in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa ( HUS ) may be many times higher than the confirmed number of cases .
Antibody studies can be used to collect information on the share of the population that have been infected with coronavirus .
THL studied the prevalence of antibodies in blood samples of persons who had undergone laboratory tests for various reasons in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa .
“ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extent to which the coronavirus epidemic has spread in the HUS area , and the share of people who may have had the mild or asymptomatic version of the disease , ” says Merit Melin , Senior Researcher at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare .
The sampling includes just over 400 samples The samples were collected from HUSLAB ’ s clinical chemistry laboratories over a period of three consecutive weeks 23 March – 12 April 2020 .
The sampling included a total of 442 samples from men and women between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who had given a blood sample for reasons other than anyinfection .
These surplus samples from laboratory tests were examined without personal identifiers .
Two different tests were performed to determine the presence of antibodies .
A commercial rapid test was used for sample screening , the performance of which was tested at THL before the study .
In addition , all positive results were verified with THL ’ s own test .
The THL confirmation test measures the ability of antibodies to neutralise the virus and provides a very reliable result .

via thl.fi
An antibody study carried out by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has found that the number of people infected with coronavirus in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (HUS) may be many times higher than the confirmed number of cases.
Antibody studies can be used to collect information on the share of the population that have been infected with coronavirus. THL studied the prevalence of antibodies in blood samples of persons who had undergone laboratory tests for various reasons in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa.
“The study is the first preliminary assessment of the extent to which the coronavirus epidemic has spread in the HUS area, and the share of people who may have had the mild or asymptomatic version of the disease,” says Merit Melin, Senior Researcher at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare.
The sampling includes just over 400 samples
The samples were collected from HUSLAB’s clinical chemistry laboratories over a period of three consecutive weeks 23 March – 12 April 2020. The sampling included a total of 442 samples from men and women between the ages of 15 and 90, who had given a blood sample for reasons other than anyinfection. These surplus samples from laboratory tests were examined without personal identifiers.
Two different tests were performed to determine the presence of antibodies. A commercial rapid test was used for sample screening, the performance of which was tested at THL before the study. In addition, all positive results were verified with THL’s own test. The THL confirmation test measures the ability of antibodies to neutralise the virus and provides a very reliable result.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Opening Up America State by State Update

It is based on the guidance put forward on whitehouse.gov , they don ’ t have a map , that @ @ @ @ @ provided .

by trevre
It is based on the guidance put forward on whitehouse.gov, they don’t have a map, that was extrapolated from what they provided.
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Trump unveils three-stage process for states to end coronavirus shutdown


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Wisconsin governor extends Safer at Home order; schools closed for rest of year

The extension means public and private K-12 schools will be closed for the rest of the year .
The governor @ @ @ @ @ operations to allow increased service .
This includes : • Public libraries : Public libraries @ @ @ @ @ of books and other library materials .
• Golf Courses : Golf courses may open @ @ @ @ @ scheduling and paying for tee times online or by phone only .
Clubhouses and pro @ @ @ @ @ • Non-essential Businesses : Non-essential businesses will now be able to do more things as @ @ @ @ @ deliveries , mailings , and curb-side pick-up .
Non-essential businesses must notify workers of whether @ @ @ @ @ Minimum Basic Operations .
• Arts and Crafts Stores : Arts and craft stores may @ @ @ @ @ materials necessary to make face masks or other personal protective equipment ( PPE ) .
@ @ @ @ @ Work : Aesthetic or optional exterior law care or construction is now allowed under the @ @ @ @ @ as it can be done by one person .

The extension means public and private K-12 schools will be closed for the rest of the year.
The governor is allowing some businesses and operations to allow increased service. This includes:
• Public libraries: Public libraries may now provide curb-side pick-up of books and other library materials.
• Golf Courses: Golf courses may open again, with restrictions including scheduling and paying for tee times online or by phone only. Clubhouses and pro shops must remain closed.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
• Non-essential Businesses: Non-essential businesses will now be able to do more things as Minimum Basic Operations, including deliveries, mailings, and curb-side pick-up. Non-essential businesses must notify workers of whether they are necessary for the Minimum Basic Operations.
• Arts and Crafts Stores: Arts and craft stores may offer expanded curb-side pick-up of materials necessary to make face masks or other personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Aesthetic or Optional Exterior Work: Aesthetic or optional exterior law care or construction is now allowed under the extended order, so long as it can be done by one person.
www.wbay.com/content/news/Wisconsin-governor-extends-Safer-at-Home-order-schools-closed-for-rest-of-year-569697771.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--The American people are choosing to maintain social distance and stay at home orders.

Despite what politicians may argue , the majority of American people are choosing to maintain social distance and stay at @ @ @ @ @ – a great perspective indicating we need a real plan with concrete changes to address @ @ @ @ @ in the economy .
I don ’ t understand how the economy could reopen when @ @ @ @ @ virus and don ’ t feel anything , ever .
trump just said he ’ @ @ @ @ @ governors to open the economy and they can do it as soon as tomorrow .
@ @ @ @ @ make it roar back immediately because some of the people who have it , won @ @ @ @ @ will spread it to people that will be symptomatic and some die .
I can @ @ @ @ @ behind this .
we don ’ t even have enough PPE😂 I ’ m dumbfounded…

by trevre
Despite what politicians may argue, the majority of American people are choosing to maintain social distance and stay at home orders. CATO analysis – a great perspective indicating we need a real plan with concrete changes to address the virus before anything improves in the economy.
www.cato.org/blog/who-will-reopen-economy-president-governors-or-people?fbclid=IwAR1vwx6nspdFp0ru5aEG8qafyJ_sdPBUO5Xvq1VUeNu9dzAuqOF6IG9vZgo
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I don’t understand how the economy could reopen when a lot people carry the virus and don’t feel anything, ever. trump just said he’s leaving it for the governors to open the economy and they can do it as soon as tomorrow. won’t that just make it roar back immediately because some of the people who have it, won’t feel shit but will spread it to people that will be symptomatic and some die. I can’t understand the logic behind this. we don’t even have enough PPE😂 I’m dumbfounded…
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Husband and Wife Chicago Lawyers that worked with Barack Obama found dead under suspicious circumsta

Husband and Wife Chicago Lawyers that worked with Barack Obama found dead under suspicious circumstances

A husband and his wife , both lawyers , were found dead Monday night in their Chicago area home .
Authorities discovered the bodies of Thomas Johnson , 69 , and Leslie Jones , 67 , at around 7:30 p.m. while conducting a welfare check at their Oak Park home .
Police said that “ preliminary information gathered at the scene indicates suspicious circumstances ” and it does not appear that the deaths were self-inflicted .
Reynolds said he does not believe there is a threat to the public but out of an abundance of caution patrol cars have increased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ founded the firm , played a crucial role in establishing affordable housing in Chicago and “ in securing justice for coal miners , truck drivers and others in the labor movement , ” his bio reads .
He also helped reform Chicago ’ s voter registration and worked with many officeholders , including former President Barack Obama , according to the law firm .
Thomas Johnson , 69 , and Leslie Ann Jones , 67 , died of multiple sharp force injuries , according to the Cook County Medical Examiner .
The couple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the downtown law firm Johnson , Jones , Snelling , Gilbert and Davis .
Johnson has served as a hearing officer for Chicago ’ s police disciplinary panel since the 1990s .
He oversaw many high profile cases , including officers accused of attempting to cover up the Laquan McDonald shooting .
On Wednesday evening , the FBI confirmed that they are assisting local law enforcement in the investigation .

A husband and his wife, both lawyers, were found dead Monday night in their Chicago area home.
Authorities discovered the bodies of Thomas Johnson, 69, and Leslie Jones, 67, at around 7:30 p.m. while conducting a welfare check at their Oak Park home.
Police said that “preliminary information gathered at the scene indicates suspicious circumstances” and it does not appear that the deaths were self-inflicted.
Reynolds said he does not believe there is a threat to the public but out of an abundance of caution patrol cars have increased in the area.
Johnson, who founded the firm, played a crucial role in establishing affordable housing in Chicago and “in securing justice for coal miners, truck drivers and others in the labor movement,” his bio reads.
He also helped reform Chicago’s voter registration and worked with many officeholders, including former President Barack Obama, according to the law firm.
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/husband-wife-lawyers-found-dead-under-suspicious-circumstances-chicago-area-n1184331?cid=referral_taboolafeed
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Deaths of married attorneys found in Oak Park home ruled homicides
Thomas Johnson, 69, and Leslie Ann Jones, 67, died of multiple sharp force injuries, according to the Cook County Medical Examiner.
The couple were Harvard Law graduates and partners in the downtown law firm Johnson, Jones, Snelling, Gilbert and Davis.
Johnson has served as a hearing officer for Chicago’s police disciplinary panel since the 1990s. He oversaw many high profile cases, including officers accused of attempting to cover up the Laquan McDonald shooting.
On Wednesday evening, the FBI confirmed that they are assisting local law enforcement in the investigation.
wgntv.com/news/deaths-of-married-attorneys-found-in-oak-park-home-ruled-homicides/
AO


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Sen. Ron Johnson calls President Trump to allow use of hydroxychloroquine

MADISON , Wis. ( WMTV ) – U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is urging President Trump to allow patients the chance @ @ @ @ @ invented to cure malaria but some now say could help people get over the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ says he forwarded a letter with thousands of signatures to the president supporting the right @ @ @ @ @ treatment .
The president has shown enthusiasm for using hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 , but @ @ @ @ @ needs to be studied to see if it works and if it ’ s safe @ @ @ @ @ Institutes of Health , a clinical trial to evaluate hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of adults @ @ @ @ @ begun , with the first participants now enrolled in Tennessee .
But since there is @ @ @ @ @ CDC or the FDA on using hydroxychloroquine , many medical professionals are reluctant to prescribe @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Johnson says .

MADISON, Wis. (WMTV)– U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is urging President Trump to allow patients the chance to try a drug initially invented to cure malaria but some now say could help people get over the coronavirus.
Johnson (R-WI) says he forwarded a letter with thousands of signatures to the president supporting the right to use hydroxychloroquine during COVID-19 treatment.
The president has shown enthusiasm for using hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, but physicians have warned it still needs to be studied to see if it works and if it’s safe.
According to the National Institutes of Health, a clinical trial to evaluate hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of adults hospitalized with coronavirus has already begun, with the first participants now enrolled in Tennessee.
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But since there is no official guidance from the CDC or the FDA on using hydroxychloroquine, many medical professionals are reluctant to prescribe off-label use of hydroxychloroquine, Sen. Johnson says.
more:
www.nbc15.com/content/news/Sen-Ron-Johnson-calls-President-Trump-to-allow–569710631.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Pentagon Readying Force to Deploy in Streets of Washington, DC to Enforce Martial Law – Reports

Department of Defence officials and civilian authorities have repeatedly played down fears that the US National Guard could be called in to enforce martial law in one or more jurisdictions of the United States in response to the coronavirus pandemic , dismissing claims to the contrary as “ false ” and akin to “ conspiracy theories.
” The Pentagon quietly activated a 10,000 troop-strong task force to secure Washington , DC in case of an emergency over a month ago and never informed the public about it , Newsweek has reported , citing a senior military officer said to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as three military sources familiar with United States Northern Command planning .
The force , known as Joint Task Force National Capital Region ( JTF-NCR ) , takes its marching orders from Pentagon chief Mark Esper .
It ’ s commanded by Army Maj. Gen. Omar J Jones IV , commander of the Military District of Washington , ordinarily a largely ceremonial unit engaging in parades and duties at the Arlington National Cemetery .
In an emergency , its duties are said to include evacuating government leaders from the capital , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city and engaging in “ homeland defence ” against potential enemies both foreign and domestic , including protecting Washington , DC ’ s airspace and dealing with civil unrest .
Its area of operations is said to include the District of Columbia and the surrounding areas in Maryland and Virginia .

Department of Defence officials and civilian authorities have repeatedly played down fears that the US National Guard could be called in to enforce martial law in one or more jurisdictions of the United States in response to the coronavirus pandemic, dismissing claims to the contrary as “false” and akin to “conspiracy theories.”
The Pentagon quietly activated a 10,000 troop-strong task force to secure Washington, DC in case of an emergency over a month ago and never informed the public about it, Newsweek has reported, citing a senior military officer said to be engaged in continuity of government planning, as well as three military sources familiar with United States Northern Command planning.
The force, known as Joint Task Force National Capital Region (JTF-NCR), takes its marching orders from Pentagon chief Mark Esper. It’s commanded by Army Maj. Gen. Omar J Jones IV, commander of the Military District of Washington, ordinarily a largely ceremonial unit engaging in parades and duties at the Arlington National Cemetery.
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In an emergency, its duties are said to include evacuating government leaders from the capital, as well as “securing” the city and engaging in “homeland defence” against potential enemies both foreign and domestic, including protecting Washington, DC’s airspace and dealing with civil unrest. Its area of operations is said to include the District of Columbia and the surrounding areas in Maryland and Virginia.
sputniknews.com/us/202004171078997751-pentagon-readying-force-to-deploy-in-streets-of-washington-dc-to-enforce-martial-law—reports/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Australia: $1993 a month Canada: $1,433 a month Denmark: Up to $3,288 a month France: Up to $7,575 a

Australia: $1993 a month Canada: $1,433 a month Denmark: Up to $3,288 a month France: Up to $7,575 a month Germany: Up to $7,326.78 a month…

Australia : $ 1993 a month Canada : $ 1,433 a month Denmark : Up to $ 3,288 a month @ @ @ @ @ 7,575 a month Germany : Up to $ 7,326.78 a month Ireland : Up to @ @ @ @ @ : Up to $ 3,084 a month U.S. : $ 1,200 to last for 10 @ @ @ @ @ did those corporations get from the stimulus ?
Was it two trillion or six trillion @ @ @ @ @ figure it out .
CAN YOU SAY D.C. SCREW JOB ?

Australia: $1993 a month
Canada: $1,433 a month
Denmark: Up to $3,288 a month
France: Up to $7,575 a month
Germany: Up to $7,326.78 a month
Ireland: Up to $1793.44 a month
UK: Up to $3,084 a month
U.S.: $1,200 to last for 10 weeks
Say, how much did those corporations get from the stimulus?
Was it two trillion or six trillion?
I never really could figure it out.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Australia: $1993 a month
Canada: $1,433 a month
Denmark: Up to $3,288 a month
France: Up to $7,575 a month
Germany: Up to $7,326.78 a month
Ireland: Up to $1793.44 a month
UK: Up to $3,084 a month
U.S.: $1,200 to last for 10 weeks "It's really bridge liquidity" – Steve Mnuchin t.co/IrUS04g4WB — Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) April 16, 2020
CAN YOU SAY D.C. SCREW JOB?
I knew you could.
h/t Builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Big Declassification Begins – Documents from Senate Judiciary Committee – Including Bucket Five Docu

Big Declassification Begins – Documents from Senate Judiciary Committee – Including Bucket Five Documents and Less Redacted Carter Page FISA

The Senate Judiciary Committee has just released a bunch of documents , some of which were on the original 2018 congressional request for declassification .
The documents are considerably interesting ; perhaps even EXPLOSIVE .
The documents include more Papadopoulos transcripts from wired conversations with FBI confidential human source Stefan Halper ; and also for the first time less redacted version of all three Carter Page FISA applications .
It ’ s going to take some time to go through this .
The declassification and release includes some seriously interesting documents the DOJ submitted to the FISA court , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely destroy the prior claims made by Lisa Page , Peter Strzok , James Baker , James Comey , Andrew McCabe and their very vocal media and Lawfare defenders .
Here ’ s one example : Lisa Page testified to congress , and claimed in media , that the FBI never had any contact with the Steele dossier material until September 2016 .
However , the DOJ directly tells the FISA court that Chris Steele was funneling his information to the FBI in June 2016 .
Not only did Lisa Page perjure herself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ironically the DOJ notified the FISC of the issues with Chris Steele ( and his compromised contacts with the FBI officials ) in July 2018 , that ’ s before Lisa Page started making her media appearances .
Obviously Lisa Page did not expect this information to come out .
It shows she was lying , and/or she never knew the truthful DOJ information to the FISA Court had taken place .
This is just the beginning… there ’ s lots of stuff in the release .
[ SEE HERE ] There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information , within this declassification series of documents .
CTH will highlight in smaller bites and articles as we can discover and share them… .
However , if you are going to review on your own , and I hope you do , feel free to share any significant findings in the comment section and we ’ ll take a closer look .
No doubt this is coming out as a result of Richard “ Ric ” Grenell in the position of DNI so he can declassify the documents the Deep Staters have @ @ @ @ @

The Senate Judiciary Committee has just released a bunch of documents, some of which were on the original 2018 congressional request for declassification. The documents are considerably interesting; perhaps even EXPLOSIVE.
[Start Digging Here]
The documents include more Papadopoulos transcripts from wired conversations with FBI confidential human source Stefan Halper; and also for the first time less redacted version of all three Carter Page FISA applications. It’s going to take some time to go through this.
The declassification and release includes some seriously interesting documents the DOJ submitted to the FISA court, as far back as July 2018, which completely destroy the prior claims made by Lisa Page, Peter Strzok, James Baker, James Comey, Andrew McCabe and their very vocal media and Lawfare defenders. Here’s one example:
Lisa Page testified to congress, and claimed in media, that the FBI never had any contact with the Steele dossier material until September 2016. However, the DOJ directly tells the FISA court that Chris Steele was funneling his information to the FBI in June 2016.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Not only did Lisa Page perjure herself in her testimony to congress; but ironically the DOJ notified the FISC of the issues with Chris Steele (and his compromised contacts with the FBI officials) in July 2018, that’s before Lisa Page started making her media appearances.
Obviously Lisa Page did not expect this information to come out. It shows she was lying, and/or she never knew the truthful DOJ information to the FISA Court had taken place. This is just the beginning… there’s lots of stuff in the release. [SEE HERE]
There is a lot of new information, explosive information, within this declassification series of documents. CTH will highlight in smaller bites and articles as we can discover and share them…. However, if you are going to review on your own, and I hope you do, feel free to share any significant findings in the comment section and we’ll take a closer look.
No doubt this is coming out as a result of Richard “Ric” Grenell in the position of DNI so he can declassify the documents the Deep Staters have attempted to keep hidden.
twitter.com/senjudiciary/status/1250944335127986176


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--The voice actor behind Star Fox 64’s Peppy, Rick May, has passed away due to COVID-19 at age 79… Alt

The voice actor behind Star Fox 64’s Peppy, Rick May, has passed away due to COVID-19 at age 79… Altria CEO Howard Willard retires, was recovering from COVID-19

Former arts teacher and video game voice actor , Rick May , has passed away due to complications from COVID-19 .
May was most known for his role as Peppy Hare in Star Fox 64 , and the infamous “ do a barrel roll !
” quote .
Altria Group Inc. said Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Willard , who was recovering from COVID-19 , is stepping down after 28 years with the com… “ I spent six days on a ventilator with covid-19 .
It saved me , but my life is not the same.
” I experience breathlessness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to run marathons ; now I can ’ t walk across a room or up a flight of stairs without getting winded .
I can ’ t go around the block for fresh air unless my husband pushes me in a wheelchair .
When I shower , I can ’ t stand the entire time ; I take breaks from standing to sit down on a plastic stool I have placed inside my bathtub .
Being on the ventilator for almost a week damaged my vocal cords , and now my voice is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ optimism that the damage is not permanent .
Only time will tell .

Former arts teacher and video game voice actor, Rick May, has
passed away due to complications from COVID-19. May was most
known for his role as Peppy Hare in Star Fox 64, and the
infamous “do a barrel roll!” quote.
gbatemp.net/threads/the-voice-actor-behind-star-fox-64s-peppy-rick-may-has-passed-away-due-to-covid-19-at-age-79.562378/
Altria Group Inc. said Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Willard, who was recovering from COVID-19, is stepping down after 28 years with the com…
www.marketwatch.com/story/altria-ceo-howard-willard-retires-was-recovering-from-covid-19-2020-04-17?mod=home-page
“I spent six days on a ventilator with covid-19. It saved me, but my life is not the same.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I experience breathlessness from even mild exertion. I used
to run marathons; now I can’t walk across a room or up a
flight of stairs without getting winded. I can’t go around
the block for fresh air unless my husband pushes me in a
wheelchair. When I shower, I can’t stand the entire time; I
take breaks from standing to sit down on a plastic stool I
have placed inside my bathtub.
Being on the ventilator for almost a week damaged my vocal
cords, and now my voice is extremely hoarse. My speech
pathologist expressed optimism that the damage is not
permanent. Only time will tell.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/my-near-death-experience-ventilator/
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/my-near-death-experience-ventilator/
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/my-near-death-experience-ventilator/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--CDC REVIEWING ‘STUNNING’ UNIVERSAL TESTING RESULTS FROM BOSTON HOMELESS SHELTER.

“ It was like a double knockout punch .
The number of positives was shocking , but the fact that @ @ @ @ @ had no symptoms was equally shocking , ” said Dr. Jim O ’ Connell , @ @ @ @ @ for the Homeless Program , which provides medical care at the city ’ s shelters @

“It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell, president of Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, which provides medical care at the city’s shelters.