investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--What U.S. Cruise Lines Are Up Against. And No Bailout Money

Their megaships turned from a revenue-generating asset into an expensive-to-maintain nightmare .
On February 1 , 2020 , a passenger from Hong Kong who had recently disembarked from the cruise ship Diamond Princess tested positive for Covid-19 .
This initiated a nightmarish experience for the ship passengers and crew , including 712 confirmed infections out of the 3,711 people aboard ; it has tragically claimed 12 lives so far .
This was followed by a series of outbreaks on cruise ships , ranging from the extremely serious ( Ruby Princess , with 662 testing positive out of 3,800 aboard ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with one testing positive out of 1,500 aboard ) .
In response to these outbreaks , Viking Cruises – headquartered in tax- and privacy-friendly Basel , Switzerland – was the first cruise line to announce a complete suspension of operations on March 11 , followed in close order by operators worldwide big and small .
The cruise industry is in serious trouble : It is estimated at very least 400 of the existing 423 ocean-going cruise ships will spend the whole month of April without generating revenues and costing the industry about $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the month .
The lost revenue ?
That ’ s another matter .
At the moment , the only major cruise line with plans to restart operations is Carnival , in the second half of June .
But it remains to be seen how much appetite for cruises there will be then , and much more critically , if port authorities will allow the ships to leave and enter their ports .
To understand why the numbers are so mind-boggling , we need to take a step back and look at how the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thirty years .
In 1987 Royal Caribbean Cruises launched the first modern cruise ship or “ megaship ” : the MS Sovereign .
Sovereign has Gross Tonnage ( GT ) , a measure of overall internal volume and hence of how “ big ” a ship is , of 70,000GT .
This is over three and a half times larger than the SS Pacific Princess , the cruise ship used to film the soap opera Love Boat which was typical of the pre-megaship era .
Thanks to the enormous success of the Sovereign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ megaship concept increased in popularity during the 1990s and surged after 2001 , when Fincantieri of Italy introduced the Vista-class , 11 behemoths of over 80,000GT which went on to serve with several Carnival subsidiaries .
Since then at least 10 brand new megaships have been added every year , and their size has ballooned , so to speak : presently , the record is held by the monstrous Oasis-class ships , all larger than 220,000GT .
A single Oasis-class megaship costs Royal Caribbean $ 1.35 billion .
That ’ s just for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maintenance , pay and training for the crew and everything that has to be stocked aboard to keep the passengers happy and the crew fed and well-clothed .
And that ’ s a lot of stuff : An Oasis-class megaship has a crew of 2,200 and a standard passenger capacity of 5,500 ( cruise ships rarely , if ever , sail at maximum capacity ) .
As of March 2020 , there were 42 cruise ships over 120,000GT on order or under construction , with prices for each ship ranging from $ 600 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the top end being for the yet unnamed Global-class megaship Genting Hong Kong ordered from MV Werften of Rostock .
That ’ s an enormous amount of money right there .
And all the megaships that are already in service are turning from a revenue-generating asset into an expensive-to-maintain nightmare .
Right now all these idled megaships are in a state called “ hot layup , ” during which the ship has a full deck and engine crew on board to maintain all systems operational ; and a “ skeleton ” hotel crew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the water daily , check and maintain the amenities etc .
In this state , a ship can be brought back into service in a matter of days , usually just the time needed to recall the full hotel staff and put the finishing touches on the ship for service .
As can be imagined hot layup is expensive .
According to Carnival ’ s most recent SEC filing , the cost for a hot layup range from $ 2 million to $ 3 million per month for each of their vessels .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lost revenue and other fixed expenses for the cruise line such as debt servicing .
Most of these megaships won ’ t be back in service anytime soon .
At some point , they will have to enter a state called “ cold layup ” to save money .
This means calling in a specialized service provider such as Wilhemsen of Norway , that will first assist the deck and engine crew in shutting down all systems , and that will then install “ deactivation equipment , ” such as dehumidifiers for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the hull , watertight sealing of underwater openings , external diesel generators , etc .
The service company also provides watchmen ( usually two per each ship ) , a team that periodically inspects the ship and updates the log and makes emergency repairs , and a security detail on standby near the layup area .
The costs for a megaship in cold layup are around $ 1 million per month .
And what will happen when a megaship is needed once again ?
While the crew is recalled in phases to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ service provider will progressively remove the layup equipment .
This procedure takes approximatively 14 days .
After this , the hotel crew is brought back in phases and starts to clean the megaship from top to bottom , and checks everything , from water faucets to the tables in the dining rooms .
Repairs are carried out as needed .
This phase may take another 14 days , but on the largest megaships it can take around 20 days .
The costs for this procedure are estimated to run in the range of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for each megaship .
And there ’ s one final piece of bad news for cruise lines .
Under the terms of the CARES Act to be eligible for a dip at assorted US government funds , a company has to be “ created or organized in the United States or under the laws of the United States ” and have a majority of their workers “ based in the United States.
” The big problem is of course that the major US cruise lines are all incorporated overseas : Carnival in Panama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Norwegian in Bermuda .
Coupled with their propensity for hiring foreign nationals to staff their megaships – which in turn fly flags of convenience from the Bahamas to Panama – these companies are at the present ineligible to get even a single dollar of bailout money .
Apparently , this was not an oversight but a bipartisan agreement and there ’ s little or nothing that can be done short term to rectify it .
Cruise lines will just have to weather at least this first phase of the storm on their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for WOLF STREET

Their megaships turned from a revenue-generating asset into an expensive-to-maintain nightmare.
By MC01, a frequent commenter on WOLF STREET:
On February 1, 2020, a passenger from Hong Kong who had recently disembarked from the cruise ship Diamond Princess tested positive for Covid-19. This initiated a nightmarish experience for the ship passengers and crew, including 712 confirmed infections out of the 3,711 people aboard; it has tragically claimed 12 lives so far.
This was followed by a series of outbreaks on cruise ships, ranging from the extremely serious (Ruby Princess, with 662 testing positive out of 3,800 aboard) to the relatively light (Westerdam, with one testing positive out of 1,500 aboard).
In response to these outbreaks, Viking Cruises – headquartered in tax- and privacy-friendly Basel, Switzerland – was the first cruise line to announce a complete suspension of operations on March 11, followed in close order by operators worldwide big and small.
The cruise industry is in serious trouble: It is estimated at very least 400 of the existing 423 ocean-going cruise ships will spend the whole month of April without generating revenues and costing the industry about $1 billion in layup costs alone for the month. The lost revenue? That’s another matter.
At the moment, the only major cruise line with plans to restart operations is Carnival, in the second half of June. But it remains to be seen how much appetite for cruises there will be then, and much more critically, if port authorities will allow the ships to leave and enter their ports.
To understand why the numbers are so mind-boggling, we need to take a step back and look at how the cruise market has evolved over the past thirty years.
In 1987 Royal Caribbean Cruises launched the first modern cruise ship or “megaship”: the MS Sovereign. Sovereign has Gross Tonnage (GT), a measure of overall internal volume and hence of how “big” a ship is, of 70,000GT. This is over three and a half times larger than the SS Pacific Princess, the cruise ship used to film the soap opera Love Boat which was typical of the pre-megaship era.
Thanks to the enormous success of the Sovereign and her two sister ships, the megaship concept increased in popularity during the 1990s and surged after 2001, when Fincantieri of Italy introduced the Vista-class, 11 behemoths of over 80,000GT which went on to serve with several Carnival subsidiaries. Since then at least 10 brand new megaships have been added every year, and their size has ballooned, so to speak: presently, the record is held by the monstrous Oasis-class ships, all larger than 220,000GT.
A single Oasis-class megaship costs Royal Caribbean $1.35 billion. That’s just for the ship, not counting insurance, maintenance, pay and training for the crew and everything that has to be stocked aboard to keep the passengers happy and the crew fed and well-clothed. And that’s a lot of stuff: An Oasis-class megaship has a crew of 2,200 and a standard passenger capacity of 5,500 (cruise ships rarely, if ever, sail at maximum capacity).
As of March 2020, there were 42 cruise ships over 120,000GT on order or under construction, with prices for each ship ranging from $600 million to $1.8 billion, with the top end being for the yet unnamed Global-class megaship Genting Hong Kong ordered from MV Werften of Rostock. That’s an enormous amount of money right there.
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And all the megaships that are already in service are turning from a revenue-generating asset into an expensive-to-maintain nightmare.
Right now all these idled megaships are in a state called “hot layup,” during which the ship has a full deck and engine crew on board to maintain all systems operational; and a “skeleton” hotel crew to keep the interior clean, run the water daily, check and maintain the amenities etc. In this state, a ship can be brought back into service in a matter of days, usually just the time needed to recall the full hotel staff and put the finishing touches on the ship for service.
As can be imagined hot layup is expensive. According to Carnival’s most recent SEC filing, the cost for a hot layup range from $2 million to $3 million per month for each of their vessels. And that’s on top of the lost revenue and other fixed expenses for the cruise line such as debt servicing.
Most of these megaships won’t be back in service anytime soon. At some point, they will have to enter a state called “cold layup” to save money. This means calling in a specialized service provider such as Wilhemsen of Norway, that will first assist the deck and engine crew in shutting down all systems, and that will then install “deactivation equipment,” such as dehumidifiers for sensitive internal areas, additional cathodic protection for the hull, watertight sealing of underwater openings, external diesel generators, etc.
The service company also provides watchmen (usually two per each ship), a team that periodically inspects the ship and updates the log and makes emergency repairs, and a security detail on standby near the layup area.
The costs for a megaship in cold layup are around $1 million per month.
And what will happen when a megaship is needed once again? While the crew is recalled in phases to reactivate more and more systems, the service provider will progressively remove the layup equipment. This procedure takes approximatively 14 days.
After this, the hotel crew is brought back in phases and starts to clean the megaship from top to bottom, and checks everything, from water faucets to the tables in the dining rooms. Repairs are carried out as needed. This phase may take another 14 days, but on the largest megaships it can take around 20 days.
The costs for this procedure are estimated to run in the range of $2 million to $4 million for each megaship.
And there’s one final piece of bad news for cruise lines. Under the terms of the CARES Act to be eligible for a dip at assorted US government funds, a company has to be “created or organized in the United States or under the laws of the United States” and have a majority of their workers “based in the United States.”
The big problem is of course that the major US cruise lines are all incorporated overseas: Carnival in Panama, Royal Caribbean in Liberia, and Norwegian in Bermuda. Coupled with their propensity for hiring foreign nationals to staff their megaships – which in turn fly flags of convenience from the Bahamas to Panama – these companies are at the present ineligible to get even a single dollar of bailout money.
Apparently, this was not an oversight but a bipartisan agreement and there’s little or nothing that can be done short term to rectify it. Cruise lines will just have to weather at least this first phase of the storm on their own. By MC01, a frequent commenter, for WOLF STREET


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--We Are Ready, Countdown Ended, Indictments Coming

The [ DS ] /MSM have nothing left , they are now on the offensive .
Trump is exposing those @ @ @ @ @ want the people to go back to a normal life .
The people are tired @ @ @ @ @ are now ready to protest .
Trump is letting this all play out , to @ @ @ @ @ are .
More bread has been dropped , the countdown has ended , indictments are @ @ @ @ @ going to here the “ shot round the world ”

The [DS]/MSM have nothing left, they are now on the offensive. Trump is exposing those Gov. that do not want the people to go back to a normal life. The people are tired of staying home, they are now ready to protest. Trump is letting this all play out, to expose who the real tyrants are. More bread has been dropped, the countdown has ended, indictments are coming, the people are going to here the “shot round the world”
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Demand for Bank Notes in Dollars & Euros Spikes Despite Fears of Covid-19 Contaminated Cash

In the United States , as coronavirus concerns grew and state after state went into lockdown , and as consumption plunged and unemployment exploded at a previously unimaginable rate , the amount of physical dollars in circulation spiked to $ 1.89 trillion , as of the Federal Reserve ’ s balance sheet on April 16 , having jumped 9.1 % compared to a year earlier .
During the darkest days of the Financial Crisis , the demand for U.S. dollar banknotes spiked at year-over-year rates of over 8 % for ten straight months and peaked at rate of 11 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what happened during the Y2K craze , when fears that computer systems would malfunction when dates rolled over in the new millennium triggered a mad rush for US dollar banknotes .
In December 1999 the total value of dollar bills in circulation spiked by 16.9 % from a year earlier , the highest rate since the war-years of the 1940s : The total value of euro banknotes in circulation in March , as countries across the Eurozone went into Covid-19 triggered lockdowns , increased by €36 billion from February , to €1.31 trillion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the fastest monthly increase since October 2008 .
And it was up 8.1 % from a year earlier .
This all happened as consumption in the region slumped to unprecedented levels .
Bank notes denominated in US dollars and euros , the two biggest global reserve currencies , are stashed away in large quantities in other countries with unstable currencies , and they ’ re used to trade certain types or merchandise on the global black market .
The euro is also used as currency in some areas that are not part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is used actively in countries that are either fully or partially dollarized .
The Fed has estimated that around 70 % of 100 dollar bills , which account for nearly 80 % of the total value of U.S. currency , are held abroad .
But what triggered this spike wasn ’ t sudden demand overseas .
The banking system must be able to provide sufficient currency even during spikes in demand at local ATMs and bank branches , and a sudden spike like this is a sign that local people are hoarding cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shelves at supermarkets having spooked people .
What makes the current dash for dollar and euro banknotes particularly interesting is that it is happening at the same time that the use of cash around the world is being heavily demonized for increasing the risk of Covid-19 infection .
In early March , in response to a question about whether banknotes could spread the coronavirus , a WHO spokesperson said : “ Yes it ’ s possible and it ’ s a good question .
We know that money changes hands frequently and can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viruses … when possible it ’ s a good idea to use contactless payments.
” Around the world , media outlets and long-standing enemies of cash such as credit card companies and fintech start-ups seized on the WHO ’ s comments and magnified them , sparking fears over the safety of cash .
The WHO has since walked back its comments , arguing that it was not advocating for people to abandon the use of cash but rather that they should wash their hands after handling it , especially before handling or eating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out in force to try to dampen public fears about using cash .
But the damage may have already been done .
In a report published last week , the Bank for International Settlements noted that “ irrespective of whether concerns are justified or not , perceptions that cash could spread pathogens may change payment behaviour by users and firms.
” Even in a traditionally cash-loving country like Spain , many retailers are urging people to use other payment methods .
In the UK , where the use of cashless payment cards was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began , cash withdrawals at ATMs have fallen sharply in recent weeks ( chart via BIS ) : Central banks in the U.S. , China , South Korea , Hungary , Kuwait and other countries have even begun “ quarantining ” or sterilizing banknotes , to ensure that cash leaving central bank currency centers does not carry pathogens .
All of this is happening despite the fact that many digital payment methods that are being touted as safer , healthier alternatives to cash are just as likely , if not more so , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notes , debit and credit card transactions generally require a signature or a PIN entry at a merchant-owned device for larger transactions .
Given that the virus survives best on non-porous materials such as plastic or stainless steel , debit or credit card terminals or PIN pads could prove to be even worse vectors of the virus .
To reduce that risk , authorities , banks and card networks in countries such as Austria , Germany , the Netherlands and the UK have set higher transaction limits for contactless payments .
The more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , convenience , and relative safety of contactless payment methods , the less likely they are to return to physical cash in the future .
At least that ’ s what credit card companies , banks , tech giants and fintech startups are hoping .
The BIS report concludes that the Covid-19 outbreak could lead to “ both higher precautionary holdings ” ( i.e .
hoarding ) of cash by consumers and “ a structural increase in the use of mobile , card and online payments.
” By Nick Corbishley , for WOLF @ @

A curious phenomenon.
By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET:
In the United States, as coronavirus concerns grew and state after state went into lockdown, and as consumption plunged and unemployment exploded at a previously unimaginable rate, the amount of physical dollars in circulation spiked to $1.89 trillion, as of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on April 16, having jumped 9.1% compared to a year earlier.
During the darkest days of the Financial Crisis, the demand for U.S. dollar banknotes spiked at year-over-year rates of over 8% for ten straight months and peaked at rate of 11%. But that was nothing compared to what happened during the Y2K craze, when fears that computer systems would malfunction when dates rolled over in the new millennium triggered a mad rush for US dollar banknotes. In December 1999 the total value of dollar bills in circulation spiked by 16.9% from a year earlier, the highest rate since the war-years of the 1940s:
The total value of euro banknotes in circulation in March, as countries across the Eurozone went into Covid-19 triggered lockdowns, increased by €36 billion from February, to €1.31 trillion, according to the ECB. It was the fastest monthly increase since October 2008. And it was up 8.1% from a year earlier. This all happened as consumption in the region slumped to unprecedented levels.
Bank notes denominated in US dollars and euros, the two biggest global reserve currencies, are stashed away in large quantities in other countries with unstable currencies, and they’re used to trade certain types or merchandise on the global black market. The euro is also used as currency in some areas that are not part of the Eurozone. And the dollar is used actively in countries that are either fully or partially dollarized. The Fed has estimated that around 70% of 100 dollar bills, which account for nearly 80% of the total value of U.S. currency, are held abroad.
But what triggered this spike wasn’t sudden demand overseas. The banking system must be able to provide sufficient currency even during spikes in demand at local ATMs and bank branches, and a sudden spike like this is a sign that local people are hoarding cash during times of uncertainty — with empty shelves at supermarkets having spooked people.
What makes the current dash for dollar and euro banknotes particularly interesting is that it is happening at the same time that the use of cash around the world is being heavily demonized for increasing the risk of Covid-19 infection. In early March, in response to a question about whether banknotes could spread the coronavirus, a WHO spokesperson said: “Yes it’s possible and it’s a good question. We know that money changes hands frequently and can pick up all sorts of bacteria and viruses … when possible it’s a good idea to use contactless payments.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Around the world, media outlets and long-standing enemies of cash such as credit card companies and fintech start-ups seized on the WHO’s comments and magnified them, sparking fears over the safety of cash.
The WHO has since walked back its comments, arguing that it was not advocating for people to abandon the use of cash but rather that they should wash their hands after handling it, especially before handling or eating food. Central banks have also come out in force to try to dampen public fears about using cash.
But the damage may have already been done. In a report published last week, the Bank for International Settlements noted that “irrespective of whether concerns are justified or not, perceptions that cash could spread pathogens may change payment behaviour by users and firms.” Even in a traditionally cash-loving country like Spain, many retailers are urging people to use other payment methods.
In the UK, where the use of cashless payment cards was already rampant long before the virus crisis began, cash withdrawals at ATMs have fallen sharply in recent weeks (chart via BIS):
Central banks in the U.S., China, South Korea, Hungary, Kuwait and other countries have even begun “quarantining” or sterilizing banknotes, to ensure that cash leaving central bank currency centers does not carry pathogens. All of this is happening despite the fact that many digital payment methods that are being touted as safer, healthier alternatives to cash are just as likely, if not more so, to spread infection.
As the BIS notes, debit and credit card transactions generally require a signature or a PIN entry at a merchant-owned device for larger transactions. Given that the virus survives best on non-porous materials such as plastic or stainless steel, debit or credit card terminals or PIN pads could prove to be even worse vectors of the virus. To reduce that risk, authorities, banks and card networks in countries such as Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK have set higher transaction limits for contactless payments.
The more that consumers get accustomed to the ease, convenience, and relative safety of contactless payment methods, the less likely they are to return to physical cash in the future. At least that’s what credit card companies, banks, tech giants and fintech startups are hoping. The BIS report concludes that the Covid-19 outbreak could lead to “both higher precautionary holdings” (i.e. hoarding) of cash by consumers and “a structural increase in the use of mobile, card and online payments.” By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Most Americans Are Not Going To Be Able To Handle What Is Ahead

Based on how Americans are handling the coronavirus lockdowns , it is hard to be optimistic about what will happen when a really severe crisis hits us .
Yes , this pandemic is definitely a great tragedy .
There are more than 700,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. and more than 40,000 Americans have died .
But it isn ’ t the end of the world .
I am sorry to tell you this , but COVID-19 is not the worst thing that we are going to face .
In fact , it is not even close to the worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So it is a bit disheartening to see so many Americans responding to this pandemic so poorly .
Let me give you some examples of what I am talking about .
Polling firms have been extremely active lately , and even though nearly 40 percent of all U.S. adults are obese , one survey found that Americans are binging on snack foods during these lockdowns like never before… If overeating was all that we had to worry about , I could live with that .
But it turns out that Americans are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other self-destructive behaviors during this time .
At a moment in our history when alcohol-related deaths in the U.S. are already at an all-time high , heavy drinkers have decided that this pandemic is a perfect opportunity to drink even more… In areas that have been hit extremely hard by COVID-19 , sales increases have been especially dramatic .
In New York City , one liquor store owner says that it is “ like New Year ’ s every day ” during his city ’ s lockdown… Of course while they are eating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and so the average American is streaming approximately eight hours of shows and movies every single day… This helps to explain why Netflix stock has been absolutely soaring recently .
Personally , I have never watched “ Tiger King ” and I have absolutely no desire to do so .
In fact , I have not had a Netflix subscription for over a decade .
Very few corporations have embraced pure evil to the extent that Netflix has , but most Americans don ’ t seem to care , and right now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In addition to binge watching television , Americans are also doing much more online gambling… To me , this doesn ’ t make any sense at all .
One recent survey found that about half of all Americans will have run through all of their savings by the end of April .
If you aren ’ t going to have enough money to pay your bills next month , why would you want to be gambling the little money that you do have away ?
Sadly , it does not appear that our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even before this pandemic started , the suicide rate in the U.S. was at an all-time record high , and more Americans were overdosing on drugs than ever before in our history .
But everything that I have shared with you so far pales in comparison to what I am going to share with you now .
As this pandemic has sent a wave of fear sweeping across the country , it has also created a boom in business at abortion clinics all over America… The Trust Women abortion clinic in Wichita @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in March , up from 90 in March , 2019 .
Julie Burkhart , the chief executive of Trust Women , told RT.com this week that between the Wichita , Kansas clinic and her other clinic in Oklahoma City ( which was briefly closed but has since reopened ) , they have seen a “ 300 to 400 percent ” increase in their patient load .
“ The women who have been calling are uncertain about having a baby when the world is so unpredictable all of a sudden , and they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sharp rise in unemployment , ” she said .
“ We ’ ve been seeing more women calling earlier than usual in their pregnancy , and there ’ s this urgent nature to it.
” Just like with individuals , great challenges tend to reveal who we truly are as a nation .
And right now the message that we are sending to the rest of the world with our behavior is not a good one .
Past generations of Americans were called to go to war , but we have been called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks , and we can ’ t seem to even handle that very well .
Amazingly , the mainstream media has somehow convinced a majority of the American people that the lockdowns should continue .
Just check out what a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll just found… The longer these lockdowns persist , the more self-destructive Americans are likely to become .
But eventually they will end , and most people will attempt to resume their normal lives .
Of course it is just a matter of time before an even bigger crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if we are failing so badly this time around , how in the world will people be able to handle something even worse ?

by Michael Snyder
Based on how Americans are handling the coronavirus lockdowns, it is hard to be optimistic about what will happen when a really severe crisis hits us. Yes, this pandemic is definitely a great tragedy. There are more than 700,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. and more than 40,000 Americans have died. But it isn’t the end of the world. I am sorry to tell you this, but COVID-19 is not the worst thing that we are going to face. In fact, it is not even close to the worst thing that we are going to face. So it is a bit disheartening to see so many Americans responding to this pandemic so poorly.
Let me give you some examples of what I am talking about. Polling firms have been extremely active lately, and even though nearly 40 percent of all U.S. adults are obese, one survey found that Americans are binging on snack foods during these lockdowns like never before…
About 40% of people say they’ve been eating more snack foods since the outbreak began, with 26% admitting they’re finding comfort in chocolate, specifically, according to a Harris Poll of 2,013 US adults conducted over the weekend.
If overeating was all that we had to worry about, I could live with that.
But it turns out that Americans are also indulging in a whole bunch of other self-destructive behaviors during this time. At a moment in our history when alcohol-related deaths in the U.S. are already at an all-time high, heavy drinkers have decided that this pandemic is a perfect opportunity to drink even more…
One in five said they are guzzling more alcohol, though that number was higher, at 30%, among those 18 to 35 — or millennials and Gen-Zers.
In areas that have been hit extremely hard by COVID-19, sales increases have been especially dramatic. In New York City, one liquor store owner says that it is “like New Year’s every day” during his city’s lockdown…
With the initial surge of panic buying over, wine and marijuana sales are still way up, presenting an opportunity — and a challenge — for the businesses scrambling to meet the demand spikes and shifts in consumer behavior. “It’s like New Year’s every day,” said Mark Schwartz, the owner of Little Mo Wine and Spirits in the Crown Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York, who has seen alcohol sales shoot up fourfold.
Of course while they are eating and drinking they need something to do, and so the average American is streaming approximately eight hours of shows and movies every single day…
The average American is passing the time amid the new coronavirus pandemic by streaming roughly eight hours of shows and movies every day, a recent survey shows. OnePoll surveyed 2,000 Americans with access to at least one streaming service and found that not only was the average person watching eight hours’ worth of content but also likely went through three series in a week alone, StudyFinds reported.
This helps to explain why Netflix stock has been absolutely soaring recently.
Personally, I have never watched “Tiger King” and I have absolutely no desire to do so. In fact, I have not had a Netflix subscription for over a decade. Very few corporations have embraced pure evil to the extent that Netflix has, but most Americans don’t seem to care, and right now Netflix is absolutely rolling in revenue.
In addition to binge watching television, Americans are also doing much more online gambling…
Online poker revenues were up more than 100 percent from February, and iGaming revenue reached a new record of $64.8 million according to the figures released Wednesday for New Jersey, one of two states that allow online gambling.
To me, this doesn’t make any sense at all.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
One recent survey found that about half of all Americans will have run through all of their savings by the end of April. If you aren’t going to have enough money to pay your bills next month, why would you want to be gambling the little money that you do have away?
Sadly, it does not appear that our society is equipped to handle hard times. Even before this pandemic started, the suicide rate in the U.S. was at an all-time record high, and more Americans were overdosing on drugs than ever before in our history.
But everything that I have shared with you so far pales in comparison to what I am going to share with you now.
As this pandemic has sent a wave of fear sweeping across the country, it has also created a boom in business at abortion clinics all over America…
The Trust Women abortion clinic in Wichita, Kansas, reported performing 252 abortions in March, up from 90 in March, 2019. Julie Burkhart, the chief executive of Trust Women, told RT.com this week that between the Wichita, Kansas clinic and her other clinic in Oklahoma City (which was briefly closed but has since reopened), they have seen a “300 to 400 percent” increase in their patient load. “The women who have been calling are uncertain about having a baby when the world is so unpredictable all of a sudden, and they’re worried about money due to the sharp rise in unemployment,” she said. “We’ve been seeing more women calling earlier than usual in their pregnancy, and there’s this urgent nature to it.”
Just like with individuals, great challenges tend to reveal who we truly are as a nation.
And right now the message that we are sending to the rest of the world with our behavior is not a good one.
Past generations of Americans were called to go to war, but we have been called to stay at home for a few weeks, and we can’t seem to even handle that very well.
Amazingly, the mainstream media has somehow convinced a majority of the American people that the lockdowns should continue. Just check out what a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll just found…
Nearly 60 percent of American voters say they are more concerned that a relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions would lead to more COVID-19 deaths than they are that those restrictions will hurt the U.S. economy, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. But while strong majorities of Democrats and independents are more worried about the coronavirus than the economy, Republicans are divided on the question, with almost half of them more concerned about how the restrictions could affect the economy.
The longer these lockdowns persist, the more self-destructive Americans are likely to become.
But eventually they will end, and most people will attempt to resume their normal lives.
Of course it is just a matter of time before an even bigger crisis than this pandemic comes along, and if we are failing so badly this time around, how in the world will people be able to handle something even worse?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Here We Go Again: When Bubbles Pop, Only the First Sellers Avoid Destruction

Bubbles always burst , and the confidence that “ this isn ’ t a bubble ” and “ the Fed has our back ” are counter-indicators .
Here we go again : stocks have once again reached nosebleed valuations completely disconnected from reality–in other words a repeat of the speculative-frenzy bubble that reached its peak on February 19 .
Once again , stocks are sporting delusional GDP-to-valuation and P-E ( price-earnings ) ratios , all based ( again ) on the belief that nothing–certainly not revenues , profits , debt levels , etc.–matters ; the only thing that matters is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observant punters have learned from the February 19 bubble popping ?
For one thing , the complacent belief that every technician ’ s target is guaranteed is suspect : at this writing , the vast majority of technical-analysis targets are much higher .
What ’ s the basis for these higher targets ?
Nothing but the implicit quasi-religious faith in the Fed .
For another , the belief that the market will give every punter an ample opportunity to sell once those targets are reached is equally suspect .
Wouldn ’ t it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a target for the 61.8 % Fibonacci level , etc .
can wait for that target and then cash out , as if nobody else ( or ten thousand trading bots ) aren ’ t planning to sell at the same target ?
One often overlooked characteristic of stock market bubbles is the extremely small exit for sellers trying to avoid becoming impoverished bagholders .
Bubbles always present small exits because once sentiment turns , buyers vanish and so price goes over the waterfall and crashes on the rocks below ( accompanied by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reckoned they ’ d exit at the top ) .
For an example , please review a chart of stock market action between March 1 and March 23 .
But modern markets have characteristics which have further diminished the exit to a tiny pinhole .
These include ( but are not limited to ) : 1 .
The dominance of index funds .
When shares of the index are sold , every constituent stock gets sold .
This triggers cascades of selling that overwhelm “ buy the dip ” buying .
2 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the algorithms are set to follow trends with extreme ferocity .
Once the trend is “ sell , ” the program selling will self-reinforce the cascade .
3 .
Central banks have generated a mesmerizing moral-hazard propaganda field that implicitly suggests “ we ’ ll never stocks go down again , ever !
” Yet the only way central banks can causally intervene is to buy stocks directly in size , i.e .
in the trillions of dollars .
( Recall U.S. stocks are around $ 30 trillion , global stock markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buying futures contracts through proxies works in stable markets , but not so much in panic cascades of selling . )
Beneath the illusory stability , modern markets are extremely illiquid , meaning that when the bubble pops and punters/money managers try to sell , there are no buyers at any price .
Liquidity in a crash depends on “ buy the dip ” bagholders .
Once they ’ ve been destroyed , there are no more buyers at any price .
The “ buy the dip ” crowd will be wiped out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and then nobody will be left who ’ s willing to catch the falling knife .
It ’ s illuminating to go back to to former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan ’ s 2014 belated bleatings in Foreign Affairs , Why I Didn ’ t See the Crisis Coming .
Greenspan presented one primary reason : the Fed ’ s models failed to accurately account for “ tail risk , ” ( otherwise known as things that supposedly happen only rarely but when they do happen , they ’ re a doozy ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than statistical models predict .
“ Tail risk ” is a fancy way of saying that bagholders willing to buy the dip and be destroyed as the crash gathers momentum are too scarce to stop the waterfall of selling .
That leaves everyone with a long position in stocks with a binary choice : either grasp the fleeting advantage of selling out in the first wave of selling–and by the way , there ’ s no advantage unless every single share is sold–or become a hapless bagholder .
Bubbles always burst , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t a bubble ” and “ the Fed has our back ” are counter-indicators of just how crushing the pop will be : the greater the confidence/euphoria , the greater the crash .
Sober up , people .
All bubbles pop , and the higher the extreme , the greater the crash .
Only the first sellers will escape ; everyone who hesitates or “ buys the dip ” will be crushed at the bottom of the waterfall .
If you want to sell your shares to bagholders , issue technical targets way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nonsensically lofty levels , then sell , sell , sell as the over-confident bagholders buy , buy , buy .
( “ But Mr. Pundit said the S & P 500 was gon na go higher , he promised !
” ) Who goes into the market planning to buy at technical levels where everybody else is selling ?
How many “ dumb money bagholders ” does everyone reckon will be anxious to buy their shares at the top of the craziest overvalued bubble ever ?
Here we go again : only two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and “ the Fed has our backs ” failed , the pundits and money managers are falling over themselves to declare “ the bottom is in , ” “ there ’ s now light at the end of the tunnel , ” and all the other reasons to complacently hold on and become a bagholder so the smart money can sell to you before the anointed TA targets are reached .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
Bubbles always burst, and the confidence that “this isn’t a bubble” and “the Fed has our back” are counter-indicators.
Here we go again: stocks have once again reached nosebleed valuations completely disconnected from reality–in other words a repeat of the speculative-frenzy bubble that reached its peak on February 19. Once again, stocks are sporting delusional GDP-to-valuation and P-E (price-earnings) ratios, all based (again) on the belief that nothing–certainly not revenues, profits, debt levels, etc.–matters; the only thing that matters is the Fed pimping stocks.
What might observant punters have learned from the February 19 bubble popping? For one thing, the complacent belief that every technician’s target is guaranteed is suspect: at this writing, the vast majority of technical-analysis targets are much higher.
What’s the basis for these higher targets? Nothing but the implicit quasi-religious faith in the Fed.
For another, the belief that the market will give every punter an ample opportunity to sell once those targets are reached is equally suspect. Wouldn’t it be nice if every punter that sees a target for the 61.8% Fibonacci level, etc. can wait for that target and then cash out, as if nobody else (or ten thousand trading bots) aren’t planning to sell at the same target?
One often overlooked characteristic of stock market bubbles is the extremely small exit for sellers trying to avoid becoming impoverished bagholders. Bubbles always present small exits because once sentiment turns, buyers vanish and so price goes over the waterfall and crashes on the rocks below (accompanied by the screams of all the punters who reckoned they’d exit at the top).
For an example, please review a chart of stock market action between March 1 and March 23.
But modern markets have characteristics which have further diminished the exit to a tiny pinhole. These include (but are not limited to):
1. The dominance of index funds. When shares of the index are sold, every constituent stock gets sold. This triggers cascades of selling that overwhelm “buy the dip” buying.
2. Computers do most of the trading, and the algorithms are set to follow trends with extreme ferocity. Once the trend is “sell,” the program selling will self-reinforce the cascade.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
3. Central banks have generated a mesmerizing moral-hazard propaganda field that implicitly suggests “we’ll never stocks go down again, ever!” Yet the only way central banks can causally intervene is to buy stocks directly in size, i.e. in the trillions of dollars. (Recall U.S. stocks are around $30 trillion, global stock markets about $80 trillion. Yes, buying futures contracts through proxies works in stable markets, but not so much in panic cascades of selling.)
Beneath the illusory stability, modern markets are extremely illiquid, meaning that when the bubble pops and punters/money managers try to sell, there are no buyers at any price.
Liquidity in a crash depends on “buy the dip” bagholders. Once they’ve been destroyed, there are no more buyers at any price. The “buy the dip” crowd will be wiped out after the first spike higher fails, and then nobody will be left who’s willing to catch the falling knife.
It’s illuminating to go back to to former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s 2014 belated bleatings in Foreign Affairs, Why I Didn’t See the Crisis Coming. Greenspan presented one primary reason: the Fed’s models failed to accurately account for “tail risk,” (otherwise known as things that supposedly happen only rarely but when they do happen, they’re a doozy), because guess what–they happen more often than statistical models predict.
“Tail risk” is a fancy way of saying that bagholders willing to buy the dip and be destroyed as the crash gathers momentum are too scarce to stop the waterfall of selling. That leaves everyone with a long position in stocks with a binary choice: either grasp the fleeting advantage of selling out in the first wave of selling–and by the way, there’s no advantage unless every single share is sold–or become a hapless bagholder.
Bubbles always burst, and the confidence that “this isn’t a bubble” and “the Fed has our back” are counter-indicators of just how crushing the pop will be: the greater the confidence/euphoria, the greater the crash.
Sober up, people. All bubbles pop, and the higher the extreme, the greater the crash. Only the first sellers will escape; everyone who hesitates or “buys the dip” will be crushed at the bottom of the waterfall.
If you want to sell your shares to bagholders, issue technical targets way above current levels and year-end targets at nonsensically lofty levels, then sell, sell, sell as the over-confident bagholders buy, buy, buy. (“But Mr. Pundit said the S&P 500 was gonna go higher, he promised!”)
Who goes into the market planning to buy at technical levels where everybody else is selling? How many “dumb money bagholders” does everyone reckon will be anxious to buy their shares at the top of the craziest overvalued bubble ever?
Here we go again: only two months after “buy the dip” and “the Fed has our backs” failed, the pundits and money managers are falling over themselves to declare “the bottom is in,” “there’s now light at the end of the tunnel,” and all the other reasons to complacently hold on and become a bagholder so the smart money can sell to you before the anointed TA targets are reached.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Munger: “Nobody Knows What’s Going to Happen.” And This Time, Berkshire Is Not Piling into Stocks &

Munger: “Nobody Knows What’s Going to Happen.” And This Time, Berkshire Is Not Piling into Stocks & Companies

“ I don ’ t think we ’ ll have a long-lasting Great Depression… .
But we may have a different kind of a mess .
All this money-printing may start bothering us.
” There is something refreshing during these insane times when a guy in his mid-90s who has seen it all and has been successful at navigating it , and who , during the last Financial Crisis , was buying stocks and entire companies hand over-fist , now says that he has never seen anything like this before , and that he doesn ’ t know what to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re not buying the rally , and they weren ’ t buying the crash .
Charlie Munger , vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway , was talking with The Wall Street Journal about the current situation and how he and Warren Buffett are looking at it .
And they ’ re not buying .
During the Financial Crisis , they were lending money to Goldman Sachs and GE and getting warrants too that turned out to be very profitable , and they bought stocks , and they bought BNSF outright after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Financial Crisis went sour .
But today ’ s situation is different .
“ Well , I would say basically we ’ re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that ’ s ever happened comes , ” he told The Wall Street Journal .
“ We just want to get through the typhoon , and we ’ d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity .
We ’ re not playing , ‘ Oh goody , goody , everything ’ s going to hell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the reserves [ into buying businesses ] .
’ ” “ We ’ re always going to be on the safe side .
That doesn ’ t mean we couldn ’ t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity .
But basically , we will be fairly conservative .
And we ’ ll emerge on the other side very strong.
” And when the Journal asked him if executives of big companies aren ’ t now approaching Berkshire and asking capital – as they ’ d done during the Financial Crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they aren ’ t. ” “ The typical reaction is that people are frozen , ” he said .
“ Take the airlines .
They don ’ t know what the hell ’ s doing .
They ’ re all negotiating with the government , but they ’ re not calling Warren .
They ’ re frozen .
They ’ ve never seen anything like it .
Their playbook does not have this as a possibility.
” “ And the phone is not ringing off the hook , ” he said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ position they ’ re in.
” “ Take the airlines , ” he said .
OK , let ’ s .
Airline stocks are revealing how the thinking of Munger and Buffett has changed about this crisis .
Back on February 27 , Berkshire bought another 976,000 shares of Delta ( at about $ 46 a share ) , bringing their total stake to nearly 72 million shares , for an 11 % stake .
On March 13 , as airline stocks were careening lower , Buffett told Yahoo Finance : “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Which boosted Delta shares to $ 38 a share for that day .
At the time , according to SEC filings cited by Yahoo Finance , Berkshire held , in addition to the nearly 72 million shares of Delta [ DAL ] , over 53 million shares of Southwest [ LUV ] , 42 million shares of American [ AAL ] , and nearly 22 million shares of United [ UAL ] .
But then all heck continued to break loose , and on April 3 , it emerged in an SEC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the airlines , selling 13 million shares of Delta and 2.3 million shares of Southwest , bringing in about $ 389 million in cash .
Upon the news , but well after Berkshire had sold , the airlines tanked even more .
Airline stocks have barely ticked up during the historic spike of the broader market .
The market-cap-based WOLF STREET Airlines Index , which tracks the seven largest US airlines , shows that together airlines are still near the March low .
But it ’ s not a historic buying opportunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to sell on the way down to lower the risk .
In the chart , the fat part at the bottom of the straight line indicates that the dictum on the WOLF STREET beer mugs – “ Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line ” – after some serious doubts earlier , has once again been vindicated ( market cap data via YCharts ) : How long will this downturn last ?
How bad can it get ?
“ Nobody in America has ever seen anything else like this , ” Munger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Everybody talks as if they know what ’ s going to happen , and nobody knows what ’ s going to happen.
” “ Of course , we ’ re having a recession , ” he said .
“ The only question is how big it ’ s going to be and how long it ’ s going to last .
I think we do know that this will pass .
But how much damage , and how much recession , and how long it will last , nobody knows.
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll have a long-lasting Great Depression , ” he said .
“ I think government will be so active that we won ’ t have one like that .
But we may have a different kind of a mess .
All this money-printing may start bothering us.
” “ I do think , sooner or later , we ’ ll have an economy back , which will be a moderate economy .
It ’ s quite possible that never again – not again in a long time – will we have a level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We may never get that back for all practical purposes .
I don ’ t know.
” In terms of Berkshire , he said that there would be damage too .
“ This will cause us to shutter some businesses , ” he said .
“ We have a few bad businesses that…we could be tolerant of as members of the family .
Somebody else would have already shut them down .
We ’ ve got a few businesses , small ones , we won ’ t reopen when this is over.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ market , he said , “ I don ’ t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it ’ s not.
” Back in late 2008 and 2009 , Buffett was out there on TV and in print , trying to calm panicked investors down , telling them that this was a once-in-a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks .
In one of those efforts to get people to buy stocks and push the market higher , on October 16 , 2008 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrote in an Op-ed in the New York Times : “ Be fearful when others are greedy , and be greedy when others are fearful.
” Now , instead of exhorting people to buy stocks , and instead of buying stocks and entire companies , Munger and Buffett sit on a huge pile of cash , and they added to that pile via the sale of airline stocks as they were collapsing , and they don ’ t know where this is going , and they don ’ t want to get run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to come out on the other side of it more or less intact and have lots of liquidity ready in order to buy whatever deals might then be available .

“I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression…. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.”
There is something refreshing during these insane times when a guy in his mid-90s who has seen it all and has been successful at navigating it, and who, during the last Financial Crisis, was buying stocks and entire companies hand over-fist, now says that he has never seen anything like this before, and that he doesn’t know what to do except to sit tight. And they’re not buying the rally, and they weren’t buying the crash.
Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, was talking with The Wall Street Journal about the current situation and how he and Warren Buffett are looking at it. And they’re not buying.
During the Financial Crisis, they were lending money to Goldman Sachs and GE and getting warrants too that turned out to be very profitable, and they bought stocks, and they bought BNSF outright after the partial stake they’d acquired before the Financial Crisis went sour.
But today’s situation is different.
“Well, I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing, ‘Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].’”
“We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically, we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.”
And when the Journal asked him if executives of big companies aren’t now approaching Berkshire and asking capital – as they’d done during the Financial Crisis – he said, “No, they aren’t.”
“The typical reaction is that people are frozen,” he said. “Take the airlines. They don’t know what the hell’s doing. They’re all negotiating with the government, but they’re not calling Warren. They’re frozen. They’ve never seen anything like it. Their playbook does not have this as a possibility.”
“And the phone is not ringing off the hook,” he said. “Everybody’s just frozen in the position they’re in.”
“Take the airlines,” he said. OK, let’s.
Airline stocks are revealing how the thinking of Munger and Buffett has changed about this crisis. Back on February 27, Berkshire bought another 976,000 shares of Delta (at about $46 a share), bringing their total stake to nearly 72 million shares, for an 11% stake.
On March 13, as airline stocks were careening lower, Buffett told Yahoo Finance: “I won’t be selling airline stocks.” Which boosted Delta shares to $38 a share for that day.
At the time, according to SEC filings cited by Yahoo Finance, Berkshire held, in addition to the nearly 72 million shares of Delta [DAL], over 53 million shares of Southwest [LUV], 42 million shares of American [AAL], and nearly 22 million shares of United [UAL].
But then all heck continued to break loose, and on April 3, it emerged in an SEC filing that Berkshire had unloaded a chunk of the airlines, selling 13 million shares of Delta and 2.3 million shares of Southwest, bringing in about $389 million in cash. Upon the news, but well after Berkshire had sold, the airlines tanked even more.
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Airline stocks have barely ticked up during the historic spike of the broader market. The market-cap-based WOLF STREET Airlines Index, which tracks the seven largest US airlines, shows that together airlines are still near the March low. But it’s not a historic buying opportunity for Berkshire. Munger and Buffett decided to sell on the way down to lower the risk.
In the chart, the fat part at the bottom of the straight line indicates that the dictum on the WOLF STREET beer mugs – “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line” – after some serious doubts earlier, has once again been vindicated (market cap data via YCharts):
How long will this downturn last? How bad can it get?
“Nobody in America has ever seen anything else like this,” Munger said. “This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.”
“Of course, we’re having a recession,” he said. “The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.”
“I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression,” he said. “I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.”
“I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again – not again in a long time – will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.”
In terms of Berkshire, he said that there would be damage too.
“This will cause us to shutter some businesses,” he said. “We have a few bad businesses that…we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.”
And in terms of the stock market, he said, “I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not.”
Back in late 2008 and 2009, Buffett was out there on TV and in print, trying to calm panicked investors down, telling them that this was a once-in-a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks. In one of those efforts to get people to buy stocks and push the market higher, on October 16, 2008, after Lehman had collapsed, Buffett wrote in an Op-ed in the New York Times: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Now, instead of exhorting people to buy stocks, and instead of buying stocks and entire companies, Munger and Buffett sit on a huge pile of cash, and they added to that pile via the sale of airline stocks as they were collapsing, and they don’t know where this is going, and they don’t want to get run over by events, but they do want to come out on the other side of it more or less intact and have lots of liquidity ready in order to buy whatever deals might then be available.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--There’s a Significant Risk of Cascading Defaults in Form of a “Debtors’ Strike”

The bailouts are better described as organized protection racket run by banks , hedge funds , private equity investors & large corporations .
By Karen Parker Feld , The Irreverent Economist at Paladin Advisors : The Fed has used the coronavirus crisis to double down on a failed strategy of supporting financial markets while the real economy declines .
Our latest Quarterly Market Outlook & Strategy letter describes the consequences that are likely to result .
It ’ s called , “ Through the Looking-Glass , ” because whenever Alice ( aka Karen ) peers through the mirror at our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is reversed .
We are definitely running the Red Queen ’ s Race now .
Our cyclical models suggest we are , perhaps , a third of the way through the stock market ’ s re-pricing , although the Federal Reserve ’ s asset-purchase programs make any kind of market forecast hazardous .
We feel most confident in saying that this is not a liquidity crisis .
It most certainly is a solvency crisis , and not easily remedied .
The inexorable rise in the ratio of US debt to GDP is prima @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of the funds borrowed over the past few decades—by households , corporations and the government—were not put to productive use .
The Fed , like the European Central Bank , and the Bank of Japan before it , has tried to generate inflation through easy monetary policy , with the goal of reducing the real burden of our massive debts .
However , all attempts have been self-defeating , because the extra liquidity encouraged ever more unproductive borrowing , which can never be repaid .
Inflation can not be marshaled to reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will only arrive once these have been written down .
In describing our central bank , financial historian James Grant , as usual , puts it best : The firemen are also the arsonists .
Having lured investors out onto the furthest limb of the risk tree , the Fed had no choice but to play its final hand .
Now that the Fed and Treasury have assumed control of the financial system , it ’ s hard to imagine a good ( i.e.
, rational , efficient and transparent ) mechanism through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losers via its asset purchase decisions .
Whose debts will be written off , how were those beneficiaries chosen , and what evidence is there that a clean slate will catalyze growth ?
And what are taxpayers getting in exchange for their generosity ?
A financial system whose risks have once again been socialized , but whose rewards remain in a limited number of private hands .
The taxpayer will hold the bag for defaulted loans , but is not guaranteed an equity stake in the companies the government is bailing out .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ described the move as “ nationalization ” of our financial system , given the wide scope of government control .
But that ’ s not quite right , since the public does not have ownership rights .
It is better described as an organized protection racket run by banks , hedge funds , private equity investors , and large corporations .
We believe there is significant risk of cascading defaults in the form of a “ debtors ’ strike , ” as households and businesses seek to retain whatever cash they can get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more likely than in 2008 , which witnessed strategic defaults by some mortgagors .
The coronavirus provides a focal point around which large numbers of debtors may focus their anger and frustration at the disproportionate support given to Wall Street vs. Main Street .
It ’ s one thing when a person feels like he or she is the only one struggling financially .
But when 30 % of the workforce is in the same boat , there is far less stigma associated with saying “ I ’ m done.
” Policymakers have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , and the reckoning has now arrived .
When US captains of finance , leading politicians , sports team owners and media personalities start calling bullshit on corporate and hedge fund bailouts , you know we ’ re in the 9th inning of this game .
Policies change when no one — not even those who benefit from them — accepts them as fair .
Whatever happens in financial markets , it is unlikely that consumer spending will rebound quickly .
Americans will undoubtedly realize that they need a larger margin of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will continue to rise , which will slow the recovery in the economy .
Absent a quick resolution of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus — which we deem unlikely — businesses will be dealing with complex and difficult choices that inhibit planning and hiring decisions .
Needless to say , the dismantling of global supply chains and rising geopolitical tensions will not help .
By Karen Parker Feld , Paladin Advisors

The bailouts are better described as organized protection racket run by banks, hedge funds, private equity investors & large corporations.
The Fed has used the coronavirus crisis to double down on a failed strategy of supporting financial markets while the real economy declines. Our latest Quarterly Market Outlook & Strategy letter describes the consequences that are likely to result. It’s called, “Through the Looking-Glass,” because whenever Alice (aka Karen) peers through the mirror at our financial markets, she sees that everything is reversed. We are definitely running the Red Queen’s Race now.
Our cyclical models suggest we are, perhaps, a third of the way through the stock market’s re-pricing, although the Federal Reserve’s asset-purchase programs make any kind of market forecast hazardous. We feel most confident in saying that this is not a liquidity crisis. It most certainly is a solvency crisis, and not easily remedied.
The inexorable rise in the ratio of US debt to GDP is prima facie evidence of the unfortunate fact that most of the funds borrowed over the past few decades—by households, corporations and the government—were not put to productive use.
The Fed, like the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan before it, has tried to generate inflation through easy monetary policy, with the goal of reducing the real burden of our massive debts.
However, all attempts have been self-defeating, because the extra liquidity encouraged ever more unproductive borrowing, which can never be repaid. Inflation cannot be marshaled to reduce debts in a liquidity trap; it will only arrive once these have been written down.
In describing our central bank, financial historian James Grant, as usual, puts it best: The firemen are also the arsonists. Having lured investors out onto the furthest limb of the risk tree, the Fed had no choice but to play its final hand. Now that the Fed and Treasury have assumed control of the financial system, it’s hard to imagine a good (i.e., rational, efficient and transparent) mechanism through which the government will pick winners and losers via its asset purchase decisions. Whose debts will be written off, how were those beneficiaries chosen, and what evidence is there that a clean slate will catalyze growth?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And what are taxpayers getting in exchange for their generosity? A financial system whose risks have once again been socialized, but whose rewards remain in a limited number of private hands.
The taxpayer will hold the bag for defaulted loans, but is not guaranteed an equity stake in the companies the government is bailing out. In an Irreverent Economist blog post I described the move as “nationalization” of our financial system, given the wide scope of government control. But that’s not quite right, since the public does not have ownership rights. It is better described as an organized protection racket run by banks, hedge funds, private equity investors, and large corporations.
We believe there is significant risk of cascading defaults in the form of a “debtors’ strike,” as households and businesses seek to retain whatever cash they can get their hands on. This outcome seems more likely than in 2008, which witnessed strategic defaults by some mortgagors.
The coronavirus provides a focal point around which large numbers of debtors may focus their anger and frustration at the disproportionate support given to Wall Street vs. Main Street. It’s one thing when a person feels like he or she is the only one struggling financially. But when 30% of the workforce is in the same boat, there is far less stigma associated with saying “I’m done.”
Policymakers have been repeating the same mistake for 20 years, and the reckoning has now arrived. When US captains of finance, leading politicians, sports team owners and media personalities start calling bullshit on corporate and hedge fund bailouts, you know we’re in the 9th inning of this game. Policies change when no one — not even those who benefit from them — accepts them as fair.
Whatever happens in financial markets, it is unlikely that consumer spending will rebound quickly. Americans will undoubtedly realize that they need a larger margin of safety against unexpected shocks. Household savings will continue to rise, which will slow the recovery in the economy. Absent a quick resolution of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus — which we deem unlikely — businesses will be dealing with complex and difficult choices that inhibit planning and hiring decisions. Needless to say, the dismantling of global supply chains and rising geopolitical tensions will not help. By Karen Parker Feld, Paladin Advisors


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Killed By The Coronavirus Lockdowns: 1000s Of U.S. Businesses That Were Shut Down Will Be Closed Per

Killed By The Coronavirus Lockdowns: 1000s Of U.S. Businesses That Were Shut Down Will Be Closed Permanently

This economic downturn is turning out to be far deeper and far more severe than most experts were originally anticipating .
More than 22 million Americans have filed claims for unemployment benefits , and economists are telling us that the U.S. economy is contracting at the fastest rate that we have seen since the Second World War .
We are already starting to see some high profile companies move toward bankruptcy , but the real story is what is happening to thousands upon thousands of small and mid-size businesses because of the lockdowns .
Many of them were barely surviving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these lockdowns have delivered a death blow .
The restaurant industry is a perfect example .
Prior to the pandemic , there were more than a million restaurants in the United States , and about half of them were independent .
Those independent restaurants employed approximately 11 million workers , and now the vast majority of those workers have been laid off .
Once the lockdowns are over , it would be wonderful if all of those independent restaurants would spring back to life , but the results of a recent survey suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In fact , that survey found that 28 percent of all independent restaurants are probably not going to survive if the lockdowns last for another month… A survey released Thursday by the James Beard Association found independent restaurants laid off 91 % of their hourly employees and nearly 70 % of salaried employees as of April 13 – double-digit increases in both categories since March .
The poll of 1,400 small and independent restaurants found 38 % of have closed temporarily or permanently , and 77 % have seen their sales drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ troubling : 28 % of restaurants said they don ’ t believe they can survive another month of closure , and only 1 out of 5 are certain they can sustain their businesses until normal operations can resume .
28 percent of 500,000 is 140,000 , and so if these lockdowns are not lifted soon we could be facing a scenario is which tens of thousands of independent restaurants are lost forever .
Of course a lot of restaurants that do reopen will face a really tough struggle because fear of the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the foreseeable future .
So even if all of the lockdowns were lifted tomorrow , the restaurant industry would still not fully recover .
Sadly , the same could be said for the fitness industry .
In fact , we just learned that one of the biggest fitness chains in the nation is getting ready to file for bankruptcy… Yes , a certain segment of the population is quite eager to resume all of their normal pre-pandemic activities , but even a 20 or 30 percent drop off in revenue will be fatal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that a lot of people are simply not going to be in the mood to share exercise equipment with others for a long time to come .
The entertainment , tourism and retail industries have also been hit extremely hard by this pandemic .
The other day I was quite stunned when I learned that Neiman Marcus “ is reportedly ready to file bankruptcy ” … No , things are definitely not going to be returning to “ normal ” in America , and there will be a lot more big corporate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come .
At this point , even some of the most prominent corporations in the entire country are “ indefinitely ” sidelining their workers… But most Americans are not in any position to handle “ indefinite furloughs ” .
In fact , one survey discovered that a whopping 50 percent of all Americans will run through their savings “ by the end of April ” … Just like during the last recession , countless numbers of Americans will go from living a comfortable middle class lifestyle to being desperately needy in just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been writing a lot about the absolutely massive lines that we have been seeing at food banks all over the nation , and we just witnessed another example in Miami .
In one of the wealthiest areas of the entire city , vehicles were lined up for a mile as people waited patiently to receive handouts from a local food bank… You can see photos from that event right here , and if you look closely you will see that some of those vehicles are quite nice .
As I have warned so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you don ’ t have any sort of a financial cushion you can “ suddenly ” find yourself in a whole lot of trouble when disaster finally strikes .
Unfortunately , we have now entered a time when there will be one crisis after another , and every new crisis will significantly escalate our woes .
For a very long time , there have been very loud warnings that our debt-fueled economic bubble would burst , and now it has happened .
The road ahead is going to be filled with immense pain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be able to handle it .

by Michael Snyder
This economic downturn is turning out to be far deeper and far more severe than most experts were originally anticipating. More than 22 million Americans have filed claims for unemployment benefits, and economists are telling us that the U.S. economy is contracting at the fastest rate that we have seen since the Second World War. We are already starting to see some high profile companies move toward bankruptcy, but the real story is what is happening to thousands upon thousands of small and mid-size businesses because of the lockdowns. Many of them were barely surviving even before this pandemic, and now these lockdowns have delivered a death blow.
The restaurant industry is a perfect example. Prior to the pandemic, there were more than a million restaurants in the United States, and about half of them were independent. Those independent restaurants employed approximately 11 million workers, and now the vast majority of those workers have been laid off.
Once the lockdowns are over, it would be wonderful if all of those independent restaurants would spring back to life, but the results of a recent survey suggest that simply is not going to happen. In fact, that survey found that 28 percent of all independent restaurants are probably not going to survive if the lockdowns last for another month…
A survey released Thursday by the James Beard Association found independent restaurants laid off 91% of their hourly employees and nearly 70% of salaried employees as of April 13 – double-digit increases in both categories since March. The poll of 1,400 small and independent restaurants found 38% of have closed temporarily or permanently, and 77% have seen their sales drop in half or worse. Perhaps most troubling: 28% of restaurants said they don’t believe they can survive another month of closure, and only 1 out of 5 are certain they can sustain their businesses until normal operations can resume.
28 percent of 500,000 is 140,000, and so if these lockdowns are not lifted soon we could be facing a scenario is which tens of thousands of independent restaurants are lost forever.
Of course a lot of restaurants that do reopen will face a really tough struggle because fear of the coronavirus is going to keep customers away for the foreseeable future. So even if all of the lockdowns were lifted tomorrow, the restaurant industry would still not fully recover.
Sadly, the same could be said for the fitness industry. In fact, we just learned that one of the biggest fitness chains in the nation is getting ready to file for bankruptcy…
Gym chain 24 Hour Fitness is working with advisors at investment bank Lazard and law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges to weigh options including a bankruptcy that could come as soon as the next few months, people familiar with the matter tell CNBC. The chain is grappling with a heavy debt load, deteriorating performance and a coronavirus pandemic that forced it to shut its more than 400 clubs.
Yes, a certain segment of the population is quite eager to resume all of their normal pre-pandemic activities, but even a 20 or 30 percent drop off in revenue will be fatal for many gyms.
And the truth is that a lot of people are simply not going to be in the mood to share exercise equipment with others for a long time to come.
The entertainment, tourism and retail industries have also been hit extremely hard by this pandemic. The other day I was quite stunned when I learned that Neiman Marcus “is reportedly ready to file bankruptcy”…
Neiman Marcus Group, one of the largest retailers in the United States, is reportedly ready to file bankruptcy amid the COVD-19 pandemic after defaulting millions in bond payments last week and furloughing 14,000 employees. Neiman Marcus would become the first major US department store to crumble amidst the economic set backs from the coronavirus outbreak.
No, things are definitely not going to be returning to “normal” in America, and there will be a lot more big corporate names among the victims in the days to come.
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At this point, even some of the most prominent corporations in the entire country are “indefinitely” sidelining their workers…
Indefinite furloughs began this weekend for more than 100,000 Disney, Best Buy and CarMax workers as businesses make cuts to survive the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent mandatory closures.
But most Americans are not in any position to handle “indefinite furloughs”.
In fact, one survey discovered that a whopping 50 percent of all Americans will run through their savings “by the end of April”…
One of the largest concerns on most homeowners minds right now is how they are going to pay bills — specifically their monthly mortgage payments. 50% of Americans reported their savings will run out by the end of April. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, 30% of homeowners had less than $1,000 in an emergency fund, with 22% reporting they didn’t have enough in savings to cover their mortgage payment for one month.
Just like during the last recession, countless numbers of Americans will go from living a comfortable middle class lifestyle to being desperately needy in just a matter of weeks.
I have been writing a lot about the absolutely massive lines that we have been seeing at food banks all over the nation, and we just witnessed another example in Miami. In one of the wealthiest areas of the entire city, vehicles were lined up for a mile as people waited patiently to receive handouts from a local food bank…
Talk about a Norman Rockwell painting idea come to life — a parade of cars filled with hungry people in Miami … smack dab in the middle of two of the city’s ritziest hotels. Check out this surreal scene down in Miami Beach, where a MILE-long line of cars were arranged in a giant U-curve in between the W Hotel and Setai Hotel — two of MB’s most high-end go-to spots for celebrity out-of-towners … like Kim K, Justin Bieber and more.
You can see photos from that event right here, and if you look closely you will see that some of those vehicles are quite nice.
As I have warned so many times over the years, if you don’t have any sort of a financial cushion you can “suddenly” find yourself in a whole lot of trouble when disaster finally strikes.
Unfortunately, we have now entered a time when there will be one crisis after another, and every new crisis will significantly escalate our woes.
For a very long time, there have been very loud warnings that our debt-fueled economic bubble would burst, and now it has happened.
The road ahead is going to be filled with immense pain, and most Americans are not going to be able to handle it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--80yr old with a net worth of $140M asking poor unemployed Americans for $10. Disconnected.

I don ’ t understand how some of these senators/reps stay in power

I don’t understand how some of these senators/reps stay in power
— Sal Migliore (@smigliore15) April 19, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Alert 200% Proof They Are Ready To Enforce Martial Law in America 2020 Economic Collapse Video

Shocking video about the coming martial law to America : Last month , governors started calling up for national guard units , raising suspicions about their true intentions .
The Pentagon seems to have insisted for the soldiers to remain determinedly ready for the command of the governors who requested their presence , and they have affirmed that these troops are not going to be used for any federal “ secret missions ” or the enforcement of the “ martial law ” , which sounded very questionable since we are running towards a scenario where the crisis is getting out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the progression of the government .
However , according to a Newsweek report , their statements didn ’ t turn out to be true and – not surprisingly – it seems The Pentagon lied to cover up their actual purpose , or at least to buy some time to obstruct the public ’ s reactions .
A few weeks ago , it was only a rumor that a joint national guard task force was being created and positioned at the capital area with the “ secret ” mission of enforcing martial law in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government officials to leave town if things get out of hand .
But by now , this force is 10,000 soldiers strong and it ’ s at a 24/7 vigilance .
The Joint Task Force-National Capital Region , also known by its initials JTF-NCR , reports directly to the Secretary of Defense and it ’ s operating at full speed , contradicting The Pentagon ’ s assurances .
Units that hadn ’ t been assigned for the outbreak ’ s support are being redirected to stay alert and available for the government ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of members of the Illinois 106th Aviation Battalion were assembled under a federal statute that placed them directly under the Secretary of Defense ’ s orders .
Alongside with the soldiers , several Black Hawk helicopters were shipped out of Illinois ’ armory , Decatur , last month .
A local Illinois newspaper provided one of the first hints of this undercover mission after reporting about the convocation of Illinois National Guard forces , who were being deployed at Fort Belvoir , outside Washington DC .
Apart from the standard predicted activities , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been delegated to do some pretty unusual tasks , such as evacuating officials , lawmakers and members of the judiciary aboard 106th Aviation Regiment helicopters .
After that , Newsweek published a very intriguing article that even included information on who would be the Major General in charge of effectively securing the capital district if martial law were imposed .
According to their sources , differently from regular missions where guardsmen are activated under “ Title 32 ” orders – which are under gubernatorial control , but paid for by the federal government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 106th was activated under “ Title 10 ” orders , an extremely strict federal duty – as if they were going to war .
This is typically the order given to soldiers when they are going to be shipped off to Afghanistan or Iraq .
But now , the warzone seems to be in Washington , DC .
Consequently , it is known that the Illinois 106th Aviation Battalion ’ s helicopters will be used to evacuate everyone , from Army leaders to White House members , as Cpt .
Adam Kowalski of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ We are that quick reaction force that allows us to help mobilize forces within the Washington DC area , evacuate people , or whatever that might be .
We ’ re kind of like that big taxicab that makes sure everybody gets where they need to be and keeps the government going.
” Sounding as if they already have everything figured out and they are only waiting to strike – and they have .
It is said the soldiers and commanders in the unit have been studying the Joint Emergency Evacuation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan to move Defense Department officials to alternative locations outside the Washington area - , and ATLAS – a project that designates the procedures for the movement of civilian leaders , ensuring the survival of legislative and judiciary members .
In addition to these plans , highly classified Octagon , Freejack and Zodiac strategies will be used to deal with other emergencies , and the movement of the White House and other presidential successors .
Subsequently , the activation orders of JTF-NCR on March 16 , had put operation plans under Major General @ @ @ @ @ @ @ organizational changes that happened after 9/11 , he was nominated the commander of this task force , which was created when the government realized there wasn ’ t a single command in charge of immediate response in Washington and a “ interagency ” organization was needed to ensure the continuity of government and implement disaster plans .
Read the full transcript here : www.epiceconomist.com

Shocking video about the coming martial law to America:
Last month, governors started calling up for national guard units, raising suspicions about their true intentions. The Pentagon seems to have insisted for the soldiers to remain determinedly ready for the command of the governors who requested their presence, and they have affirmed that these troops are not going to be used for any federal “secret missions” or the enforcement of the “martial law”, which sounded very questionable since we are running towards a scenario where the crisis is getting out of control and becoming a risk for the progression of the government.
However, according to a Newsweek report, their statements didn’t turn out to be true and – not surprisingly – it seems The Pentagon lied to cover up their actual purpose, or at least to buy some time to obstruct the public’s reactions.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A few weeks ago, it was only a rumor that a joint national guard task force was being created and positioned at the capital area with the “secret” mission of enforcing martial law in Washington DC and assisting lawmakers and top government officials to leave town if things get out of hand. But by now, this force is 10,000 soldiers strong and it’s at a 24/7 vigilance.
The Joint Task Force-National Capital Region, also known by its initials JTF-NCR, reports directly to the Secretary of Defense and it’s operating at full speed, contradicting The Pentagon’s assurances. Units that hadn’t been assigned for the outbreak’s support are being redirected to stay alert and available for the government’s command.
Additionally, a number of members of the Illinois 106th Aviation Battalion were assembled under a federal statute that placed them directly under the Secretary of Defense’s orders. Alongside with the soldiers, several Black Hawk helicopters were shipped out of Illinois’ armory, Decatur, last month.
A local Illinois newspaper provided one of the first hints of this undercover mission after reporting about the convocation of Illinois National Guard forces, who were being deployed at Fort Belvoir, outside Washington DC. Apart from the standard predicted activities, the report noticed that the unit had been delegated to do some pretty unusual tasks, such as evacuating officials, lawmakers and members of the judiciary aboard 106th Aviation Regiment helicopters.
After that, Newsweek published a very intriguing article that even included information on who would be the Major General in charge of effectively securing the capital district if martial law were imposed. According to their sources, differently from regular missions where guardsmen are activated under “Title 32” orders – which are under gubernatorial control, but paid for by the federal government -, the joint force of the 106th was activated under “Title 10” orders, an extremely strict federal duty – as if they were going to war. This is typically the order given to soldiers when they are going to be shipped off to Afghanistan or Iraq. But now, the warzone seems to be in Washington, DC.
Consequently, it is known that the Illinois 106th Aviation Battalion’s helicopters will be used to evacuate everyone, from Army leaders to White House members, as Cpt. Adam Kowalski of the Illinois Guard states and I quote: “We are that quick reaction force that allows us to help mobilize forces within the Washington DC area, evacuate people, or whatever that might be. We’re kind of like that big taxicab that makes sure everybody gets where they need to be and keeps the government going.” Sounding as if they already have everything figured out and they are only waiting to strike – and they have.
It is said the soldiers and commanders in the unit have been studying the Joint Emergency Evacuation Plan (JEEP) – a national plan to move Defense Department officials to alternative locations outside the Washington area -, and ATLAS – a project that designates the procedures for the movement of civilian leaders, ensuring the survival of legislative and judiciary members. In addition to these plans, highly classified Octagon, Freejack and Zodiac strategies will be used to deal with other emergencies, and the movement of the White House and other presidential successors.
Subsequently, the activation orders of JTF-NCR on March 16, had put operation plans under Major General Omar J. Jones IV commands. After organizational changes that happened after 9/11, he was nominated the commander of this task force, which was created when the government realized there wasn’t a single command in charge of immediate response in Washington and a “interagency” organization was needed to ensure the continuity of government and implement disaster plans. Read the full transcript here: www.epiceconomist.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--Tucker Carlson Reveals Michelle Obama’s SICK Plan to Destroy America as We Know it

Cassandra Fairbanks from the Gateway Pundit reports , Fox News host Tucker Carlson blasted Michelle Obama ’ s support for @ @ @ @ @ of mail-in voting in November , warning that the extreme measures could destroy American democracy @

Cassandra Fairbanks from the Gateway Pundit reports, Fox News host Tucker Carlson blasted Michelle Obama’s support for a “radical expansion” of mail-in voting in November, warning that the extreme measures could destroy American democracy.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--S&P Repeating 2000 & 2007 Bear Market Rallies So Far! Different this time?

Does history repeat exactly ?
No .
Sometimes it rhymes big-times !
!
!
This chart looks at the S @ @ @ @ @ past 25-years on a weekly basis .
During the 50 % bear markets of 2000-2003 @ @ @ @ @ & P started quality counter-trend rallies very near the first week of spring ( 3/21 @ @ @ @ @ & P 500 is going to repeat the large bear markets of the past , @ @ @ @ @ be aware of where counter-trend rallies started and ended ?
Yes !
The strong rally @ @ @ @ @ right on schedule , as the low took place on 3/20 , similar to the @ @ @ @ @ !
!
!
The counter-trend rallies in the bear markets mentioned above , both peaked @ @ @ @ @ a month after the 3/20/20 low is ; Will it be different this time .

by Kimble Charting
Does history repeat exactly? No. Sometimes it rhymes big-times!!!
This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 25-years on a weekly basis.
During the 50% bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009, the S&P started quality counter-trend rallies very near the first week of spring (3/21).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If the S&P 500 is going to repeat the large bear markets of the past, would it be important to be aware of where counter-trend rallies started and ended? Yes!
The strong rally over the past month started right on schedule, as the low took place on 3/20, similar to the rallies in 2001 and 2008!!!
The counter-trend rallies in the bear markets mentioned above, both peaked 8-weeks? The trillion-dollar question a month after the 3/20/20 low is; Will it be different this time.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--It’s Getting Scary Out There

It’s Getting Scary Out There

Better Learn To Care for Yourself

Better Learn To Care for Yourself
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-20--If Movie Theaters Reopened, Would You Go?

Trump has slated movie theaters as one of the first businesses to reopen .
Will you go ?
Trump has a Three Phase Plan to Reopen America .
• Phase one : Restaurants , movie theaters , sporting venues , places of worship and gyms can reopen if they observe strict social distancing .
Elective surgeries can resume when appropriate on an outpatient basis .
• Phase two : Schools and organized youth activities like camps can reopen .
Nonessential travel can resume , and people can start circulating in parks , outdoor recreational areas and shopping centers , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless unspecified precautionary measures are taken .
• Phase three : Vulnerable individuals can resume public interactions but practice social distancing .
Employers can resume unrestricted staffing of workplaces .
Large public venues can operate under limited social distancing rules .
Visits to senior care facilities and hospitals can resume .
Trump Will “ Allow ” What He Can ’ t In his national address , Trump said he “ If they [ the states ] need to remain closed we would allow them to do that.
” That is of course ridiculous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prerogative to forbid or allow states to open or shut .
He can make recommendation and he did , 18 pages of them if you click on the above link .
• How does the theater enforce distancing at these checkpoints : entering , seating , concession stands , rest rooms ?
• Would the theaters be profitable with those restrictions ?
• Where ’ s the movies ?
Movie releases have been delayed and blockbusters won ’ t be the first offerings .
• Assuming the theaters open up , would you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now accustomed to watching movies at home on Netflix etc , and won ’ t easily go back to overpaying for the seat and massively overpriced popcorn ?
Ultimately , it ’ s one thing to suggest movie theaters can open first , it ’ s another thing to say you will “ allow ” it , and it is a third thing to get people in the door .

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
Trump has slated movie theaters as one of the first businesses to reopen. Will you go?
Trump has a Three Phase Plan to Reopen America.
Phase one : Restaurants, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship and gyms can reopen if they observe strict social distancing. Elective surgeries can resume when appropriate on an outpatient basis.
: Restaurants, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship and gyms can reopen if they observe strict social distancing. Elective surgeries can resume when appropriate on an outpatient basis. Phase two : Schools and organized youth activities like camps can reopen. Nonessential travel can resume, and people can start circulating in parks, outdoor recreational areas and shopping centers, while avoiding gatherings of more than 50 individuals unless unspecified precautionary measures are taken.
: Schools and organized youth activities like camps can reopen. Nonessential travel can resume, and people can start circulating in parks, outdoor recreational areas and shopping centers, while avoiding gatherings of more than 50 individuals unless unspecified precautionary measures are taken. Phase three: Vulnerable individuals can resume public interactions but practice social distancing. Employers can resume unrestricted staffing of workplaces. Large public venues can operate under limited social distancing rules. Visits to senior care facilities and hospitals can resume.
Trump Will “Allow” What He Can’t
In his national address, Trump said he “If they [the states] need to remain closed we would allow them to do that.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
That is of course ridiculous. It is not Trump’s prerogative to forbid or allow states to open or shut.
He can make recommendation and he did, 18 pages of them if you click on the above link.
Movie Theater Questions Abound
How does the theater enforce distancing at these checkpoints: entering, seating, concession stands, rest rooms? Would the theaters be profitable with those restrictions? Where’s the movies? Movie releases have been delayed and blockbusters won’t be the first offerings. Assuming the theaters open up, would you go? How many people are now accustomed to watching movies at home on Netflix etc, and won’t easily go back to overpaying for the seat and massively overpriced popcorn?
Ultimately, it’s one thing to suggest movie theaters can open first, it’s another thing to say you will “allow” it, and it is a third thing to get people in the door.