investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Visualizing the Cost of Food for Two Weeks of Quarantine

Many Americans have encountered an unfamiliar sight lately at the grocery : empty shelves .
The coronavirus has unleashed panic buying across the country , despite retailers ’ insistence that food supply chains are holding up .
Even so , it ’ s good to keep some extra food on hand , as a positive or likely-positive coronavirus diagnosis means a two-week quarantine .
What does two weeks of food look like ?
• Tyson , the nation ’ s largest meat packer , has ramped up production to meet dwindling store supplies .
• Dairy prices are falling as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. • U.S. consumers are shunning fresh fruits and vegetables in favor of non-perishable goods .
• While industry experts do not predict food shortages , some specialty brands and items may be in short supply .
For this viz , we calculate what a two-week food supply would cost based on the United States Department of Agriculture ’ s recommended daily intake amounts , and prices at Walmart.com .
You can get the link to each price in our data source .
Our viz is a donut chart of two layers : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the second layer .
We focused on non-perishable and frozen food supplies for a quarantine-ready basket of items .
Just under half ( 47.4 % ) of the $ 139 bill goes to protein and vegetables .
Meat in particular has been hit hard by supply chain disruptions .
Tyson , the country ’ s largest meat packer , has insisted that meat will be back in stock at groceries soon .
To do so , Tyson and other meat suppliers have adjusted policies to avoid sick workers contaminating the supply chain .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans have been forced to expand to other protein options .
One of them has been tuna and tinned fish , and many consumers have found the category to be much more sophisticated than they remembered .
Like meat packers , fruit and vegetable vendors are working full-tilt to restock supplies , although many consumers have been wary of fresh fruit and vegetables with the looming fear of a long quarantine .
It ’ s not the only category where consumers will be changing habits as a result of the coronavirus : certain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come by as the supply chain is stretched .
As one UK grocer explained : “ We have 20 different sizes and styles of pasta .
We are moving that to six ” .
This could be the status quo for some time : industry experts say that , while there will be no big food shortages , certain preferred brands or specialty food items may be hard to come by .
What foods have been difficult to find in your area ?
What changes have you made to your food consumption ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ share with your friends .
Want to take action right now against the coronavirus ?
Donate to the World Health Organization ’ s COVID-19 Response Fund .

by howmuch
Many Americans have encountered an unfamiliar sight lately at the grocery: empty shelves. The coronavirus has unleashed panic buying across the country, despite retailers’ insistence that food supply chains are holding up. Even so, it’s good to keep some extra food on hand, as a positive or likely-positive coronavirus diagnosis means a two-week quarantine. What does two weeks of food look like?
Use this visualization
Tyson, the nation’s largest meat packer, has ramped up production to meet dwindling store supplies.
Dairy prices are falling as China may cease importing milk from the U.S.
U.S. consumers are shunning fresh fruits and vegetables in favor of non-perishable goods.
While industry experts do not predict food shortages, some specialty brands and items may be in short supply.
For this viz, we calculate what a two-week food supply would cost based on the United States Department of Agriculture’s recommended daily intake amounts, and prices at Walmart.com. You can get the link to each price in our data source. Our viz is a donut chart of two layers: we break each category into sub-category for the second layer. We focused on non-perishable and frozen food supplies for a quarantine-ready basket of items.
Just under half (47.4%) of the $139 bill goes to protein and vegetables. Meat in particular has been hit hard by supply chain disruptions. Tyson, the country’s largest meat packer, has insisted that meat will be back in stock at groceries soon. To do so, Tyson and other meat suppliers have adjusted policies to avoid sick workers contaminating the supply chain.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
With meat hard to come by, Americans have been forced to expand to other protein options. One of them has been tuna and tinned fish, and many consumers have found the category to be much more sophisticated than they remembered. Like meat packers, fruit and vegetable vendors are working full-tilt to restock supplies, although many consumers have been wary of fresh fruit and vegetables with the looming fear of a long quarantine.
It’s not the only category where consumers will be changing habits as a result of the coronavirus: certain brands of grains may be hard to come by as the supply chain is stretched. As one UK grocer explained: “We have 20 different sizes and styles of pasta. We are moving that to six”. This could be the status quo for some time: industry experts say that, while there will be no big food shortages, certain preferred brands or specialty food items may be hard to come by.
What foods have been difficult to find in your area? What changes have you made to your food consumption? Let us know in the comments and share with your friends.
Want to take action right now against the coronavirus? Donate to the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Response Fund.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Why QE Is Not Working

Why QE Is Not Working

Authored by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com , By formally announcing quantitative easing ( QE ) infinity on March 23 , 2020 , the Federal Reserve ( Fed ) is using its entire arsenal of monetary stimulus .
purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities for an period is far more dramatic than anything they did in 2008 .
The Fed also revived other financial crisis programs like the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility ( TALF ) and created a new special purpose vehicle ( SPV ) , allowing them to buy investment-grade corporate bonds and related ETF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unprecedented actions is to unfreeze the credit markets , stem financial market losses , and provide some ballast to the economy .
Most investors seem unable to grasp why the Fed ’ s actions have been , thus far , ineffective .
In this article , we explain why today is different from the past .
The Fed ’ s current predicament is unique as they have never been totally up against the wall of zero-bound interest rates heading into a crisis .
Their remaining tools become more controversial and more limited with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Our objective is to assess when the monetary medicine might begin to work and share our thoughts about what is currently impeding it .
All Money is Lent in Existence .
That sentence may be the most crucial concept to understand if you are to make sense of the Fed ’ s actions and assess their effectiveness .
Under the traditional fractional reserve banking system run by the U.S. and most other countries , money is “ created ” via loans .
Here is a simple example : • The bank is allowed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( keeping 10 % in “ reserves ” ) • Anne borrows $ 900 from the same bank and buys a widget from Tommy • Tommy then deposits $ 900 into his checking account at the same bank • The bank then lends to someone who needs $ 810 and they spend that money , etc… After Tommy ’ s deposit , there is still only $ 1,000 of reserves in the banking system , but the two depositors believe they have a total of $ 1,900 in their bank accounts .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To make the bank ’ s accounting balance , Anne owes the bank $ 900 .
The money supply , in this case , is $ 1,900 despite the amount of real money only being $ 1,000 .
That process continually feeds off the original $ 1,000 deposit with more loans and more deposits .
Taken to its logical conclusion , it eventually creates $ 9,000 in “ new ” money through the process from the original $ 1,000 deposit .
To summarize , we have $ 1,000 in deposited funds , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 9,000 in new debt .
While it may seem “ repulsive ” and risky , this system is the standard operating procedure for banks and a very effective and powerful tool for generating profits and supporting economic growth .
However , if everyone wanted to take their money out at the same time , the bank would not have it to give .
They only have the original $ 1,000 of reserves .
Manipulating the money supply through QE and Fed Funds targeting are the primary tools the Fed uses to conduct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ QE is arguably a controversial blend of monetary and fiscal policy .
When the Fed provides banks with reserves , their intent is to increase the amount of debt and therefore the money supply .
As such , more money should result in lower interest rates .
Conversely , when they take away reserves , the money supply should decline and interest rates rise .
It is important to understand , the Fed does not set the Fed Funds rate by decree , but rather by the aforementioned monetary actions to incentivize banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The following graph compares the amount of domestic debt outstanding versus the monetary base .
Why is QE not working ?
So with an understanding of how money is created through fractional reserve banking and the role the Fed plays in manipulating the money supply , let ’ s explore why QE helped boost asset prices in the past but is not yet potent this time around .
In our simple banking example , if Anne defaults on her loan , the money supply would decline from $ 1,900 to $ 1,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest rates would rise as the supply of money is more limited today than yesterday .
In this isolated example , the Fed might purchase bonds and , in doing so , conjure reserves onto bank balance sheets through the magic of the digital printing press .
Typically the banks would then create money and offset the amount of Anne ’ s default .
The problem the Fed has today is that Anne is defaulting on some of her debt and , at the same time , John and Tommy need and want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The money supply is declining due to defaults and falling asset prices , and at the same time , there is a greater demand for cash .
This is not just a domestic issue , but a global one , as the U.S. dollar is the world ’ s reserve currency .
For the Fed to effectively stimulate financial markets and the economy , they first have to replace the money which has been destroyed due to defaults and lower asset prices .
Think of this as a hole the Fed is trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filled , the new money will not be effective in stimulating the broad economy , but instead will only help limit the erosion of the financial system and yes , it is a stealth form of bailout .
Again , from our example , if the banks created new money , it would only replace Anne ’ s default and would not be stimulative .
During the latter part of QE 1 , when mortgage defaults slowed , and for all of the QE 2 and QE 3 periods , the Fed was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can think of their actions as piling dirt on top of a filled hole .
These monetary operations enabled banks to create more money , of which a good amount went mainly towards speculative means and resulted in inflated financial asset prices .
It certainly could have been lent toward productive endeavors , but banks have been conservative and much more heavily regulated since the crisis and prefer the liquid collateral supplied with market-oriented loans .
QE 4 ( Treasury bills ) and the new repo facilities introduced in the fall of 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once again piled up dirt on top of a filled hold .
The situation changed drastically on February 19 , 2020 , as the virus started impacting perspectives around supply chains , economic growth , and unemployment in the global economy .
Now QE 4 , Fed-sponsored Repo , QE infinity , and a smorgasbord of other Fed programs are required measures to fill the hole .
However , there is one critical caveat to the situation .
As stated earlier , the Fed conducts policy by incentivizing the banking system to alter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks are concerned with their financial situation or that of others , they will be reluctant to lend and therefore impede the Fed ’ s efforts .
This is clearly occurring , making the hole progressively more challenging to fill .
The same thing happened in 2008 as banks became increasingly suspect in terms of potential losses due to their exorbitant leverage .
That problem was solved by changing the rules around how banks were required to report mark-to-market losses by the Federal Accounting Standards Board ( FASB ) .
Despite the multitude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the previous 18 months , that simple re-writing of an accounting rule caused the market to turn on a dime in March 2009 .
The hole was suddenly over-filled by what amounted to an accounting gimmick .
Are Fed actions making headway on filling the hole , or is the hole growing faster than the Fed can shovel as a result of a tsunami of liquidity problems ?
A declining dollar and stability in the short-term credit markets are essential gauges to assess the Fed ’ s progress .
The Fed will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past is repeated , they will heap a lot of extra dirt on top of the hole and leave it there for a long time .
The problem with that excess dirt is the consequences of excessive monetary policy .
Those same excesses created after the financial crisis led to an unstable financial situation with which we are now dealing .
While we must stay heavily focused on the here and now , we must also consider the future consequences of their actions .
We will undoubtedly share more on this in @ @ @

Authored by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
“The process by which money is created is so simple that the mind is repelled.” – JK Galbraith
By formally announcing quantitative easing (QE) infinity on March 23, 2020, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is using its entire arsenal of monetary stimulus. Unlimited purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities for an indefinite period is far more dramatic than anything they did in 2008. The Fed also revived other financial crisis programs like the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) and created a new special purpose vehicle (SPV), allowing them to buy investment-grade corporate bonds and related ETF’s. The purpose of these unprecedented actions is to unfreeze the credit markets, stem financial market losses, and provide some ballast to the economy.
Most investors seem unable to grasp why the Fed’s actions have been, thus far, ineffective. In this article, we explain why today is different from the past. The Fed’s current predicament is unique as they have never been totally up against the wall of zero-bound interest rates heading into a crisis. Their remaining tools become more controversial and more limited with the Fed Funds rate at zero. Our objective is to assess when the monetary medicine might begin to work and share our thoughts about what is currently impeding it.
All Money is Lent in Existence.
That sentence may be the most crucial concept to understand if you are to make sense of the Fed’s actions and assess their effectiveness.
Under the traditional fractional reserve banking system run by the U.S. and most other countries, money is “created” via loans. Here is a simple example:
John deposits a thousand dollars into his bank
The bank is allowed to lend 90% of their deposits (keeping 10% in “reserves”)
Anne borrows $900 from the same bank and buys a widget from Tommy
Tommy then deposits $900 into his checking account at the same bank
The bank then lends to someone who needs $810 and they spend that money, etc…
After Tommy’s deposit, there is still only $1,000 of reserves in the banking system, but the two depositors believe they have a total of $1,900 in their bank accounts. The bank’s accountants would confirm that. To make the bank’s accounting balance, Anne owes the bank $900. The money supply, in this case, is $1,900 despite the amount of real money only being $1,000.
That process continually feeds off the original $1,000 deposit with more loans and more deposits. Taken to its logical conclusion, it eventually creates $9,000 in “new” money through the process from the original $1,000 deposit.
To summarize, we have $1,000 in deposited funds, $10,000 in various bank accounts and $9,000 in new debt. While it may seem “repulsive” and risky, this system is the standard operating procedure for banks and a very effective and powerful tool for generating profits and supporting economic growth. However, if everyone wanted to take their money out at the same time, the bank would not have it to give. They only have the original $1,000 of reserves.
How The Fed Operates
Manipulating the money supply through QE and Fed Funds targeting are the primary tools the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy. As an aside, QE is arguably a controversial blend of monetary and fiscal policy.
When the Fed provides banks with reserves, their intent is to increase the amount of debt and therefore the money supply. As such, more money should result in lower interest rates. Conversely, when they take away reserves, the money supply should decline and interest rates rise. It is important to understand, the Fed does not set the Fed Funds rate by decree, but rather by the aforementioned monetary actions to incentivize banks to increase or reduce the money supply.
The following graph compares the amount of domestic debt outstanding versus the monetary base.
Data Courtesy: St. Louis Federal Reserve
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Why is QE not working?
So with an understanding of how money is created through fractional reserve banking and the role the Fed plays in manipulating the money supply, let’s explore why QE helped boost asset prices in the past but is not yet potent this time around.
In our simple banking example, if Anne defaults on her loan, the money supply would decline from $1,900 to $1,000. With a reduced money supply, interest rates would rise as the supply of money is more limited today than yesterday. In this isolated example, the Fed might purchase bonds and, in doing so, conjure reserves onto bank balance sheets through the magic of the digital printing press. Typically the banks would then create money and offset the amount of Anne’s default. The problem the Fed has today is that Anne is defaulting on some of her debt and, at the same time, John and Tommy need and want to withdraw some of their money.
The money supply is declining due to defaults and falling asset prices, and at the same time, there is a greater demand for cash. This is not just a domestic issue, but a global one, as the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
For the Fed to effectively stimulate financial markets and the economy, they first have to replace the money which has been destroyed due to defaults and lower asset prices. Think of this as a hole the Fed is trying to fill. Until the hole is filled, the new money will not be effective in stimulating the broad economy, but instead will only help limit the erosion of the financial system and yes, it is a stealth form of bailout. Again, from our example, if the banks created new money, it would only replace Anne’s default and would not be stimulative.
During the latter part of QE 1, when mortgage defaults slowed, and for all of the QE 2 and QE 3 periods, the Fed was not “filling a hole.” You can think of their actions as piling dirt on top of a filled hole.
These monetary operations enabled banks to create more money, of which a good amount went mainly towards speculative means and resulted in inflated financial asset prices. It certainly could have been lent toward productive endeavors, but banks have been conservative and much more heavily regulated since the crisis and prefer the liquid collateral supplied with market-oriented loans.
QE 4 (Treasury bills) and the new repo facilities introduced in the fall of 2019 also stimulated speculative investing as the Fed once again piled up dirt on top of a filled hold. The situation changed drastically on February 19, 2020, as the virus started impacting perspectives around supply chains, economic growth, and unemployment in the global economy. Now QE 4, Fed-sponsored Repo, QE infinity, and a smorgasbord of other Fed programs are required measures to fill the hole.
However, there is one critical caveat to the situation.
As stated earlier, the Fed conducts policy by incentivizing the banking system to alter the supply of money. If the banks are concerned with their financial situation or that of others, they will be reluctant to lend and therefore impede the Fed’s efforts. This is clearly occurring, making the hole progressively more challenging to fill. The same thing happened in 2008 as banks became increasingly suspect in terms of potential losses due to their exorbitant leverage. That problem was solved by changing the rules around how banks were required to report mark-to-market losses by the Federal Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Despite the multitude of monetary and fiscal policy stimulus failures over the previous 18 months, that simple re-writing of an accounting rule caused the market to turn on a dime in March 2009. The hole was suddenly over-filled by what amounted to an accounting gimmick.
Summary
Are Fed actions making headway on filling the hole, or is the hole growing faster than the Fed can shovel as a result of a tsunami of liquidity problems? A declining dollar and stability in the short-term credit markets are essential gauges to assess the Fed’s progress.
The Fed will eventually fill the hole, and if the past is repeated, they will heap a lot of extra dirt on top of the hole and leave it there for a long time. The problem with that excess dirt is the consequences of excessive monetary policy. Those same excesses created after the financial crisis led to an unstable financial situation with which we are now dealing.
While we must stay heavily focused on the here and now, we must also consider the future consequences of their actions. We will undoubtedly share more on this in upcoming articles.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Coca-Cola (KO) hit an almost 7 year low today. Why is it getting hammered more than others in its in

Coca-Cola (KO) hit an almost 7 year low today. Why is it getting hammered more than others in its industry?

KO makes much of it ’ s money from selling it ’ s sodas to restaurants , amusement parks , @ @ @ @ @ , vending machines , airports/airlines , cruises , etc .
With the stay in place @ @ @ @ @ , and lowered foot traffic out there less people are going to be buying sodas @ @ @ @ @ .
So not really all that surprising that CocaCola and companies that sell to food @ @ @ @ @ getting their stocks hammered .
I still think they will be going down a little @ @ @ @ @ price I think I ’ m going to go ahead and pick up some $ @ @ @ @ @ it for a long time .
This is the same basic reason why Pepsi ( @ @ @ @ @ ( $ SYY ) , and lots of restaurant ( starbucks $ SBUX , mcdonalds @ @ @ @ @ $ YUM , etc . )
and supplier stocks are getting hammered .

by lanismycousin
KO makes much of it’s money from selling it’s sodas to restaurants, amusement parks, sports/concert venues, movie theaters, vending machines, airports/airlines, cruises, etc.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
With the stay in place orders, forced restaurant/venues closures, and lowered foot traffic out there less people are going to be buying sodas and other coca cola products. So not really all that surprising that CocaCola and companies that sell to food establishments are going to be getting their stocks hammered. I still think they will be going down a little more but even at this price I think I’m going to go ahead and pick up some $KO and hold on to it for a long time.
This is the same basic reason why Pepsi ($PEP), Sysco ($SYY), and lots of restaurant (starbucks $SBUX, mcdonalds $MCD, YUM Brands $YUM, etc.) and supplier stocks are getting hammered.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-26--Current Unemployment rate: 5,797,000

Current Unemployment rate: 5,797,000

EDIT : This is Unemployment data that is mostly a direct result of Covid19 .
The most recent unemployment data shows that the U.S. was already at roughly 3.5 % or 6,000,000 people .
Adding the additional ( roughly 6 million people ) , leaves a total of about 12,000,000 , double what it was before this pandemic started .
EDIT # 2 : I created an additional link below that is view/comment only as the original got spammed pretty hard .
Add comments if you have any new information you ’ d like me to include .
Hey everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US state with the corresponding number of unemployment claims submitted recently due to the Coronavirus shutting everything down .
Based off of the most up-to-date news articles found online , so far there have been nearly 6 million unemployment claims submitted in the US in just this past week alone .
The list I compiled is missing about 15 states , so I expect the number to be much higher .
It ’ s also important to mention that a lot of the sources used are roughly a week old .
It seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ due to Trump ’ s orders .
Here is a link to the Google Spreadsheet I created , anyone can make edits/add data and notes .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by theoreticalpigeon
EDIT: This is Unemployment data that is mostly a direct result of Covid19. The most recent unemployment data shows that the U.S. was already at roughly 3.5% or 6,000,000 people. Adding the additional (roughly 6 million people), leaves a total of about 12,000,000, double what it was before this pandemic started.
EDIT # 2: I created an additional link below that is view/comment only as the original got spammed pretty hard. Add comments if you have any new information you’d like me to include.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WLJ1j7igM88C2XysCuN4lMH7W2NUdZq4dnO0DbyR7H4/edit?usp=sharing
Hey everyone, I compiled a list of every US state with the corresponding number of unemployment claims submitted recently due to the Coronavirus shutting everything down.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Based off of the most up-to-date news articles found online, so far there have been nearly 6 million unemployment claims submitted in the US in just this past week alone.
The list I compiled is missing about 15 states, so I expect the number to be much higher. It’s also important to mention that a lot of the sources used are roughly a week old. It seems like states have been withholding numbers recently due to Trump’s orders.
Here is a link to the Google Spreadsheet I created, anyone can make edits/add data and notes.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12QBxigFgOfDHLbc9SB7W6le6ICHONBG-7AwAe9hXEko/edit?usp=sharing
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-26--1/3 of World on Lockdown, The Worst is Yet to Come

twitter.com/geraldcelente/status/1242994669035937793
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Its hitting the hard data now…The St Louis Fed projects a Q2 unemployment rate of 32.1% for the #US. Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate | St. Louis Fed t.co/gME7DdJcL8 — Richard Yetsenga (@ricyet) March 26, 2020
#COVID19 United States death toll reaches 1000 – Total cases: 54,896➡67,730 – Death toll: 778➡1000 – Total tested: 359,161➡472,820 US had more newly confirmed cases and new deaths in one single day than South Korea's cumulative cases and deaths over the past two months pic.twitter.com/xOfGBkeRUy — Andy Biotech (@AndyBiotech) March 26, 2020
Thursday's U.S. jobless claims report will show us the scale of economic shock we're dealing with. Trailing 24M ave. ~220,000
Week ending March 14: 281,000
Week ending March 21 estimate: 1,640,000
Goldman estimate: 2,250,000 pic.twitter.com/QfJ2rnEh7l — David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) March 26, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-26--1 million Californians filed for unemployment

According to this source .
While this only accounts for the state of California , I thought Wall Street estimated around 2.25 million unemployed nationwide ?
I wonder what the real numbers are for the other states .
Please post your state ’ s numbers and source if you can find them so we can add them up before the official nationwide numbers come out .
EDIT : I ’ ll start adding up the numbers by state if you can provide a source .
Wow , so far , this is pretty sad 🙁 EDIT : All of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past week or two .
This quarantine is going to last for the foreseeable future so expect more claims throughout April… IL ~ 64k just last week alone KS ~ 28k just last week alone LA ~ 70k source ( just from last week ! )
ME ~ 5k in just 3 days this week !
MA ~ 20k filed just on monday alone !
MI ~ 109k source ( just last week alone ) NV ~ 206k just from casinos alone !
NY ~ 1.7 million source ( these are calls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 281k source ( I can update when I get a new source ) Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by ChivePretzel
According to this source. While this only accounts for the state of California, I thought Wall Street estimated around 2.25 million unemployed nationwide? I wonder what the real numbers are for the other states. Please post your state’s numbers and source if you can find them so we can add them up before the official nationwide numbers come out.
EDIT: I’ll start adding up the numbers by state if you can provide a source. Wow, so far, this is pretty sad 🙁
EDIT: All of these sources are saying these are claims from the past week or two. This quarantine is going to last for the foreseeable future so expect more claims throughout April…
TOTAL: ~ ???
AL ~ 17k source
AK ~ ??
AZ ~ 30k source
AR ~ 10k source
CA – 1 million
CO ~ 180k filing attempts in a single week
CT ~ 100k source
DE ~ ??
FL ~ 70k to 224k source source #2
GA ~ ??
HI ~ 40k source
IA ~ ??
ID ~ ??
IL ~ 64k just last week alone
IN ~ 54k source
KS ~ 28k just last week alone
KY ~ ??
LA ~ 70k source (just from last week!)
ME ~ 5k in just 3 days this week!
MD ~ ??
MA ~ 20k filed just on monday alone!
MI ~ 109k source (just last week alone)
MN ~ 150k source
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
MS ~ ??
MO ~ ??
MT ~ ??
NE ~ ??
NV ~ 206k just from casinos alone!
NH ~ 44k source
NJ ~ ??
NM ~ ??
NY ~ 1.7 million source (these are calls and are not confirmed)
NC ~ 166k source
ND ~ ??
OH ~ 139k source
OK ~ 18k source
OR ~ ??
PA ~ 540k source
RI ~ 62k source
SC ~ ??
SD ~ ??
TN ~ ??
TX ~ 281k source (I can update when I get a new source)
UT ~ ??
VT ~ ??
VA ~ 40k just last week!
WA ~ ??
WV ~ 28k source
WI ~ 101k source
WY ~ ??
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-26--Key emerging markets BEFORE the COVID-19 shock:

1 .
No growth whatsoever in Mexico , South Africa or Argentina 2 .
Turkey managed to grow thanks to @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 shock comes at worst imaginable time for EM 4 .
Takes difficult growth picture @ @ @ @ @

1. No growth whatsoever in Mexico, South Africa or Argentina
2. Turkey managed to grow thanks to massive credit stimulus
3. COVID-19 shock comes at worst imaginable time for EM
4. Takes difficult growth picture & makes it much worse
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Key emerging markets BEFORE the COVID-19 shock:
1. No growth whatsoever in Mexico, South Africa or Argentina
2. Turkey managed to grow thanks to massive credit stimulus
3. COVID-19 shock comes at worst imaginable time for EM
4. Takes difficult growth picture & makes it much worse pic.twitter.com/KNqMyPH1dz — Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) March 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-26--The Unthinkable Is The New Thinkable

The Unthinkable Is The New Thinkable

The unthinkable is the new thinkable t.co/DfcWTUtCJC '' Don ’ t forget that the other Central Banks now have to @ @ @ @ @ well .
We are in the middle of a currency war and the dollar is @ @ @ @ @ currency . ''
Draghi : This is like a war and policy makers must mobilize @ @ @ @ @ are facing is not cyclical… .
The cost of hesitation may be irreversible .
The @ @ @ @ @ Europeans in the 1920s is enough of a cautionary tale . ''
t.co/RDuBBhT5DL

The unthinkable is the new thinkable t.co/DfcWTUtCJC
"Don’t forget that the other Central Banks now have to go to QE infinity as well. We are in the middle of a currency war and the dollar is still the world's reserve currency."
Draghi: This is like a war and policy makers must mobilize accordingly
"The shock we are facing is not cyclical…. The cost of hesitation may be irreversible. The memory of the sufferings of Europeans in the 1920s is enough of a cautionary tale." t.co/RDuBBhT5DL
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 25, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-26--Almost got got by a fraudster from “Chase”

Yesterday , I got a text from an 806 number asking if I was trying to make a charge for $ 700+ at a Target in Atlanta .
After I replied “ No ” , I got a phone call from an 800 number that actually appears to belong to Chase .
The man on the phone identified himself as a member of Chase ’ s fraud prevention team .
I wasn ’ t asked to identify myself , other than confirming my name .
We discussed my recent charges , and I told him anything coming from Atlanta and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the charge was fraudulent ( no shit ) and told me we ’ d need to burn this card and issue a new one .
He confirmed my address .
I didn ’ t have to provide it .
After saying he would expedite my card to the address on file , he said it looks like the breach was through my online banking and that they would need to burn my username and reissue a new user profile .
He asked for my “ old username ” .
I saw this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it .
He then asked for my “ old password ” and I told him “ I ’ ve been using my fingerprint to log in for so long that I couldn ’ t tell you my password even if I wanted to , which I don ’ t , fucker.
” and hung up .
I called Chase ’ s fraud line myself , but the wait was incredibly long so I went to my local branch and bro ’ d out with my banker and had a laugh about all this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sham andI was issued a new card and user profile .
He congratulated me for not getting pwned on this day , and I left without shaking his hand because times be like that .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by BeerBluntBoogaloo
Yesterday, I got a text from an 806 number asking if I was trying to make a charge for $700+ at a Target in Atlanta. After I replied “No”, I got a phone call from an 800 number that actually appears to belong to Chase.
The man on the phone identified himself as a member of Chase’s fraud prevention team. I wasn’t asked to identify myself, other than confirming my name. We discussed my recent charges, and I told him anything coming from Atlanta and not Texas is fraudulent. He determined that the charge was fraudulent (no shit) and told me we’d need to burn this card and issue a new one. He confirmed my address. I didn’t have to provide it.
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After saying he would expedite my card to the address on file, he said it looks like the breach was through my online banking and that they would need to burn my username and reissue a new user profile. He asked for my “old username”. I saw this as a red flag, but provided it. He then asked for my “old password” and I told him “I’ve been using my fingerprint to log in for so long that I couldn’t tell you my password even if I wanted to, which I don’t, fucker.” and hung up.
I called Chase’s fraud line myself, but the wait was incredibly long so I went to my local branch and bro’d out with my banker and had a laugh about all this. He confirmed that it was all a sham andI was issued a new card and user profile. He congratulated me for not getting pwned on this day, and I left without shaking his hand because times be like that.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Hospital In Chicago Is Considering A Universal DO-NOT-RESUSCITATE Policy For Infected Patients, Rega

Hospital In Chicago Is Considering A Universal DO-NOT-RESUSCITATE Policy For Infected Patients, Regardless Of Patient Wishes…

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have @ @ @ @ @ how to weigh the “ save at all costs ” approach to resuscitating a dying @ @ @ @ @ of exposing doctors and nurses to the virus ’ s contagion .
The conversations are @ @ @ @ @ the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks , @ @ @ @ @ be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “ codes , ” @ @ @ @ @ stops .
Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a universal do-not-resuscitate policy for @ @ @ @ @ the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize @ @ @ @ @ over the one .

Sounds a lot like Italy’s measures.
From the article:
Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the virus’s contagion.
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The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.
Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a universal do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Here we go: New York, Hawaii and North Carolina have issued an urgent request to FEMA for emergency

Here we go: New York, Hawaii and North Carolina have issued an urgent request to FEMA for emergency mortuary assistance

The expected ‘ Italy levels ’ of strain and collapse to the system has now begun in the United States , it appears , as on Wednesday New York , Hawaii and North Carolina have issued an urgent request to FEMA for emergency mortuary assistance as deaths mount across the states .
CNBC reports “ A spokesperson for the Federal Emergency Management Agency confirmed the request in a statement on Wednesday , ” and it ’ s now said to be under review but not yet approved .
The US on Wednesday reached above 60,000 confirmed cases and is on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in terms of total numbers .
If the emergency request for federal morgue assistance to these states are approved , HHS Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Teams , or DMORT , will deploy in order to “ work to quickly and accurately identify victims and support local mortuary services , ” according to a government website , as well to “ establishing temporary morgue facilities ” and help in “ assisting in the determination of cause and manner of death ” .
Should these initial states receive the FEMA help , more states are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US grow .

The expected ‘Italy levels’ of strain and collapse to the system has now begun in the United States, it appears, as on Wednesday New York, Hawaii and North Carolina have issued an urgent request to FEMA for emergency mortuary assistance as deaths mount across the states.
CNBC reports “A spokesperson for the Federal Emergency Management Agency confirmed the request in a statement on Wednesday,” and it’s now said to be under review but not yet approved.
The US on Wednesday reached above 60,000 confirmed cases and is on track to overtake Italy and possibly China in terms of total numbers.
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If the emergency request for federal morgue assistance to these states are approved, HHS Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Teams, or DMORT, will deploy in order to “work to quickly and accurately identify victims and support local mortuary services,” according to a government website, as well to “establishing temporary morgue facilities” and help in “assisting in the determination of cause and manner of death”.
Should these initial states receive the FEMA help, more states are likely to follow suit as cases across the US grow.
www.zerohedge.com/health/after-nyc-morgues-near-capacity-states-ask-emergency-fema-help


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Not Even The $2 Trillion Stimulus Package Can Save Oil Markets

A stimulus agreement has finally been reached .
The package would provide $ 2 trillion in funding , allocated directly to the White House ’ s plan which includes purchasing 77 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a $ 1,200 check for every American earning under $ 70,000 and a sweeping boost to unemployment benefits .
This comes in the middle of a spectacular oil price crash , in which we ’ ve seen crude markets fall more in a single day than we have in the last 30 years .
The crash itself can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The economy-stalling pandemic pushed the leaders of OPEC+ , Saudi Arabia and Russia , to enter discussions on how to respond to plummeting oil demand .
These talks did not go well , to say the least , and resulted in the implosion of the OPEC+ alliance earlier this month , which , in turn , set off an oil price war .
Now , we ’ re left watching and waiting to see to what extent ( if at all ) the current stimulus talks in congress , as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the renewable power sector ’ s recent push for modification and extension of tax incentives amidst the flood of cheap oil .
This initiative is backed by some Democrats .
This is an important consideration , as Axios points out , because “ solar and wind industry groups are starting to provide early projections of the economic fallout as the frozen economy hits development and coronavirus forces workers home.
” According to Axios ’ reporting , the Solar Energy Industries Association sent a memo along with a letter that officially proposed an economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ cites analysts ’ estimates of ‘ losses between 16 % and 30 % of volume this year and some sectors could see as much as 50 % reduction , ’ ” potentially resulting in “ jobs losses in the 38,000–120,000 range , a huge chunk of the sectors ’ roughly 250,000 workforce.
” The wind power sector , not to be left out , reported ( via the American Wind Energy Association ) that “ roughly 25 gigawatts worth of planned project [ … ] representing $ 35 billion worth of investment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon be on the chopping block .
And that ’ s just a small portion of the havoc being wreaked by the oil crash .
Even though the crash itself probably will not last long , the implications will be far-reaching .
This certainly isn ’ t the first big oil crash , “ but there will be at least one important and lasting difference this time around — and it has major market and geopolitical implications , ” says the Financial Times .
“ The oil price crash is a foretaste of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyway — and that is down.
” Few could make the argument that the future of the energy industry lies in oil–or in any fossil fuel , for that matter .
With each passing year , policymakers and industry leaders push forward clean energy campaigns and research , and in the last year , even Saudi Aramco had to admit that peak oil is likely just around the corner .
“ It may not look that way at first , ” warns the Financial Times .
Saudi Arabia will soon ease its price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Riyadh and Moscow will make amends , the world will recover from COVID-19 , and the global economy will slowly recover .
“ Yet this inevitable bounceback should not distract from two fundamental factors that were already remaking oil and gas markets .
First , the shale revolution has fundamentally eroded industry profitability .
Second , the renewables ’ revolution will continue to depress growth in demand.
” The death of fossil fuels is not imminent , but it is inevitable .
So maybe it ’ s not such a bad idea to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy sector after all .

By Haley Zaremba
A stimulus agreement has finally been reached. The package would provide $2 trillion in funding, allocated directly to the White House’s plan which includes purchasing 77 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a $1,200 check for every American earning under $70,000 and a sweeping boost to unemployment benefits. This comes in the middle of a spectacular oil price crash, in which we’ve seen crude markets fall more in a single day than we have in the last 30 years. The crash itself can be traced back to the spread of coronavirus. The economy-stalling pandemic pushed the leaders of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia, to enter discussions on how to respond to plummeting oil demand. These talks did not go well, to say the least, and resulted in the implosion of the OPEC+ alliance earlier this month, which, in turn, set off an oil price war.
Now, we’re left watching and waiting to see to what extent (if at all) the current stimulus talks in congress, as well as negotiations on upcoming bills, will consider the renewable power sector’s recent push for modification and extension of tax incentives amidst the flood of cheap oil. This initiative is backed by some Democrats. This is an important consideration, as Axios points out, because “solar and wind industry groups are starting to provide early projections of the economic fallout as the frozen economy hits development and coronavirus forces workers home.”
According to Axios’ reporting, the Solar Energy Industries Association sent a memo along with a letter that officially proposed an economic stimulus strategy for the renewables sector which “cites analysts’ estimates of ‘losses between 16% and 30% of volume this year and some sectors could see as much as 50% reduction,’” potentially resulting in “jobs losses in the 38,000–120,000 range, a huge chunk of the sectors’ roughly 250,000 workforce.” The wind power sector, not to be left out, reported (via the American Wind Energy Association) that “roughly 25 gigawatts worth of planned project […] representing $35 billion worth of investment” and “35,000 jobs” could soon be on the chopping block.
And that’s just a small portion of the havoc being wreaked by the oil crash. Even though the crash itself probably will not last long, the implications will be far-reaching. This certainly isn’t the first big oil crash, “but there will be at least one important and lasting difference this time around — and it has major market and geopolitical implications,” says the Financial Times. “The oil price crash is a foretaste of where the whole energy sector was going anyway — and that is down.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Few could make the argument that the future of the energy industry lies in oil–or in any fossil fuel, for that matter. With each passing year, policymakers and industry leaders push forward clean energy campaigns and research, and in the last year, even Saudi Aramco had to admit that peak oil is likely just around the corner.
“It may not look that way at first,” warns the Financial Times. Saudi Arabia will soon ease its price war and reinstate lower production caps, Riyadh and Moscow will make amends, the world will recover from COVID-19, and the global economy will slowly recover. “Yet this inevitable bounceback should not distract from two fundamental factors that were already remaking oil and gas markets. First, the shale revolution has fundamentally eroded industry profitability. Second, the renewables’ revolution will continue to depress growth in demand.”
The death of fossil fuels is not imminent, but it is inevitable. So maybe it’s not such a bad idea to give a little boost to the renewable energy sector after all.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--BOOM! Dr. Fauci Shuts DOWN CBS Reporter Trying to Drive Wedge Between Him and Trump

Dominick Manstrangelo from Washington Examiner reports , The nation ’ s leading infectious disease doctor insisted he and President Trump @ @ @ @ @ drugs could treat the CV in the United States .

Dominick Manstrangelo from Washington Examiner reports, The nation’s leading infectious disease doctor insisted he and President Trump share an understanding regarding which drugs could treat the CV in the United States.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.washingtonexaminer.com/ne…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--After Rand Paul’s Major Announcement – The Left Shows Just How SICK They Really Are

Bronson Stocking from Townhall reports , Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for the CV .
The Republican is @ @ @ @ @ positive for the CV .
A spokesman for the senator , Sergio Gor , said @ @ @ @ @ symptoms of the virus but was tested for the virus “ out of an abundance @ @ @ @ @ extensive travel and events.
” According to the spokesman , Mr. Paul is feeling fine @ @ @ @ @ .

Bronson Stocking from Townhall reports, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for the CV. The Republican is the first senator to test positive for the CV. A spokesman for the senator, Sergio Gor, said the senator is not showing symptoms of the virus but was tested for the virus “out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and events.” According to the spokesman, Mr. Paul is feeling fine and is currently under quarantine.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/bronson…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--Man starts airplane company last week: expecting $10 million bailout from government

Indiana – Local man Rodney , from Indianapolis launched an airline company this week called “ Bailout Flights ” .
@ @ @ @ @ is to collect a portion of the $ 54 billion of bailout money going to @ @ @ @ @ spoke on record stating how he is confident Bailout Flights will collect at least $ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m pretty darn sure Bailout Flights will be able to collect at least @ @ @ @ @ the government , ” Rodney stated .
“ You see , the government isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ highly doubt those government ‘ officials ’ will even check to see how long Bailout @ @ @ @ @ .
Rodney isn ’ t alone in this entrepreneurial venture .
There have been 25 @ @ @ @ @ the past week and over 50 cruise ship companies .
Half of these companies are @ @ @ @ @ Florida and the other half in Bermuda .

via thestonkmarket
Indiana – Local man Rodney, from Indianapolis launched an airline company this week called “Bailout Flights”. The mission of Bailout Flights is to collect a portion of the $54 billion of bailout money going to the airline industry. Rodney spoke on record stating how he is confident Bailout Flights will collect at least $10 million dollars.
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“I’m pretty darn sure Bailout Flights will be able to collect at least $10 million dollars from the government,” Rodney stated. “You see, the government isn’t very smart. I highly doubt those government ‘officials’ will even check to see how long Bailout Flights has been in business.
Rodney isn’t alone in this entrepreneurial venture. There have been 25 new airline companies started in the past week and over 50 cruise ship companies. Half of these companies are headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida and the other half in Bermuda.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-25--The FDA and CDC’s Coronavirus Response Is a ‘Failure of Historic Proportions’

Alex Tabarrok , an economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution , on the official responses to @ @ @ @ @ are doing things right , and how the government can get a better handle on @ @ @ @ @ novel coronavirus .

Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution, on the official responses to past pandemics, which countries are doing things right, and how the government can get a better handle on stopping the spread of this novel coronavirus.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--“Reopen the economy” doesn’t mean reopen at full capacity.

Q 's the markets are n't factoring : How many small bizs can operate at 50 % revenue for 6-12 @ @ @ @ @ state 's reopening ?
How many can operate at 80 % for 2 years ?
@ @ @ @ @ UE is the new normal ?
`` Reopen the economy '' does n't mean reopen @ @ @ @ @ is talking about slashing restaurant capacities by 50 % .
pic.twitter.com/HAkKuhjZ30 Everyone 's talking about @ @ @ @ @ But there was no moment when anyone fully closed it .
It happened organically in @ @ @ @ @ did much of anything .
I wrote about it for the @ Markets newsletter today @ @ @

Q's the markets aren't factoring: How many small bizs can operate at 50% revenue for 6-12 mos. upon their respective state's reopening? How many can operate at 80% for 2 years? What happens if 10% UE is the new normal?
"Reopen the economy" doesn't mean reopen at full capacity.
California is talking about slashing restaurant capacities by 50%. pic.twitter.com/HAkKuhjZ30
Everyone's talking about getting the economy reopened.
But there was no moment when anyone fully closed it. It happened organically in a flash, before politicians did much of anything.
I wrote about it for the @Markets newsletter today. t.co/e5TYtjIuOw pic.twitter.com/sUx38Pkagz
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--The concept of the Fed as a “drug dealer” is not just an analogy (metaphor??) – it’s how they see th

The concept of the Fed as a “drug dealer” is not just an analogy (metaphor??) – it’s how they see themselves.

The concept of the Fed as a `` drug dealer '' is not just an analogy ( metaphor ?
?
@ @ @ @ @ they see themselves .
This is an actual Dick Fisher quote , on CNBC a @ @ @ @

The concept of the Fed as a "drug dealer" is not just an analogy (metaphor??) – it's how they see themselves.
This is an actual Dick Fisher quote, on CNBC a while back. t.co/WBaK6GYMJc
— Rudy Havenstein, Kleptocracy Ombudsman. (@RudyHavenstein) January 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--The World Economy Is in a Free Fall, Says Felix Zulauf

FS Insider recently spoke to hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf to get his take on the state of the global and U.S. economy .
Felix shared his thoughts on what a recovery could look like and why he sees this as a long-term issue .
Read below for excerpts from his interview on FS Insider .
If you ’ re not already a subscriber , click here .
For audio , see Felix Zulauf on Why It ’ ll Take ‘ Years ’ to Recover from Crisis .
What ’ s your take on the economic and political situation at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a world economy that was already slowing down decisively .
Europe was virtually at zero growth early in the year and the U.S. was at 1 % growth .
China had slowed and only had hesitant signs of stabilization .
So , the world economy was slowing down and falling below the 2 % growth , that usually is the sign of recession .
Then we got a world pandemic and of course , this created a tremendous shock with the lockdown going from Asia to Europe and then to North America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free fall .
We have the biggest decline ever in modern times .
This will lead to a huge drop in corporate earnings , in my view .
The authorities are trying to backstop the system by providing fiscal help which is enormous and providing monetary help to backstop the credit system .
The fiscal help will only begin to work once the whole employment situation normalizes and the restrictions and the lockdown are removed completely .
Without that , the fiscal side can not really work .
The monetary side is helping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock market obviously likes it very much .
And so , stocks are rallying because people think that this was just a V-shaped decline due to the virus and will be V-shaped , rubber band effect to the upside and we go back to normal .
I disagree with that view .
I think this is a decline that has triggered off a lot of problems .
We entered this decline with the biggest debt the world has ever seen .
Total debt out there in the world relative to GDP is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last business cycle peak in 2007 .
And then you go down and your cash flow dries up , and your revenues dry up—that creates all sorts of financial problems .
When you have a lot of debt , that means the default risk is going up very high .
The central banks are trying to backstop that , but they can not backstop everything .
Stay ahead of the news !
Subscribe to our premium weekday podcast So , we will have a huge wave of bankruptcies running and working through the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how this will work out .
I do not see a V-shaped recovery , rather a U-shaped or even more likely , an L-shaped with the horizontal line being bumpy .
That means whenever the fiscal stimulus begins to work , you have a bump up .
And once the fiscal stimulus rate of change goes down again , you bump down again .
I think that could be the case for the next one to two years .
I think the economic outlook is anything but rosy .
I think it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not see how the corporate sector will be able to deliver a lot of earnings growth and in that kind of environment , you have to understand that the corporate sectors in the Western world and also in the Asian world , went into this in the weakest financial condition they ever have been .
The U.S. corporate sector was running a financial deficit of 500 billion , Germany was running a deficit of 100 billion euros , France of 100 billion euros , the U.K. owed 45 billion Sterling and Japan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course has a huge financial deficit of over 10 % of GDP .
The corporate sector has entered this difficult economic situation completely unprepared .
They have been buying stocks and pushing their stock prices to cashing option plans for top management and the board instead of really having precautionary steps for a rainy day .
I think over the next two years , you will see a lot of balance sheet repair work that will restrain economic growth ; and therefore , I fear , a relatively dismal economic situation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the U.S. has not crossed the red line where central banks finance governments directly .
The Bank of England said they will now finance the government directly .
This is crossing a red line , and this is very dangerous stuff .
So eventually , I think all central banks will do that and it promises we will end this decade in a very inflationary environment .
So far , the Fed has not crossed that line , but the way I see the real economy , I think eventually they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has not crossed that line yet either , but they are very close to doing so because their system is really breaking apart .
I think this is a very interesting and new situation for my generation and for younger generations .
Our parents have lived through things like this , but we haven ’ t , and therefore we do not know how this will work out .
We have the monetary side that is very positive for the equity market , of course .
But we have to wonder what will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the real economy is not going to deliver what they are expecting ?
When they realize there is not going to be a rubber band effect in the real economy to the upside , that the earnings outlook will remain dismal for much longer than what they think right now .
I think we will most likely have a market environment with big swings up and down between the extremes of fear of missing out on the upside and fear of the economic damage on the downside .
This will create huge swings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less finished because we have gone through the disinflationary process , and I ’ ve been a bond bull since the early 1980s .
I think you have to sell your bonds in Europe and in Japan and everywhere .
Maybe the U.S. Treasury bonds are the last ones to turn around .
I do believe that this has implications for the currency markets .
Right now , the dollar is weakening a little bit .
But I believe that the outside world has more problems than the U.S. That has to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the offshore market that is denominated in US dollars .
That is basically a short position in the US dollar that is at least 12 trillion .
That has more than doubled since the last business cycle peak .
All those companies , indebted in US dollars , are being strangulated as their currencies have been declining for quite some time .
I think the Fed is trying to address that through swap lines .
The person out there that needs that swap line the most is China , for political and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opened the swap lines with the People ’ s Bank of China .
I think at some point the International Monetary Fund has to step in as a broker .
And until there are enough dollars around to nourish all those who need dollars to pay back their loans that are denominated in US dollars , I think the US dollar will remain relatively firm .
That is a big problem for some , like the eurozone , where you have a currency concept that is very strange and not solid and rigid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rigid setups usually break .
I would not be surprised to see some European banks being nationalized over the next couple of months because the stress in the system will rise to enormous levels .
It ’ s very , very tricky .
Gold is a beneficiary of this the deflationary problem .
The over indebtedness of the world economy , very low economic growth and the mini depression that we now have , has created so many problems that the central banks are trying to fight it by debasing our currencies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold price .
So , it ’ s a remarkable situation that we are living through .
You said this a larger economic problem beyond just the coronavirus itself and that you believe this is going to be a much more protracted recovery scenario .
Can you explain that ?
Every four years or so you have an important low in the stock market , like we had in 2016 and now in 2020 .
Those who believe in the four-year cycle say this is an important low , and it may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and further then than I originally believed .
I thought that in the first bounce we could run to 2700 or so .
I thought that over time , we would bounce back 50 % to 2800 .
That ’ s where we are right now .
It seems right now the market wants to go higher , and maybe for longer .
We have a 40-week cycle coming up , the low is in July , so it may have a retest then .
Historically retest of the stock markets are in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could have a retest then because I think the economic news will not improve .
The coronavirus statistics are beginning to improve globally , though not yet in the U.S. , but that will come also .
And then the risk is whether we will have a second or a third wave as we had in the Spanish flu .
If we loosen the restrictions too early , we run a high risk of a second wave , which would then lead to another lockdown , maybe later this year or early next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are over this yet , there are huge liabilities out there that can not be serviced anymore .
This is not going to be a short-term affair .
This is going to be a long-term affair .
And this probably creates lots of trading opportunities for shrewd and experienced traders .
For investors , it ’ s much more difficult .
Click here to listen to the full interview with Felix Zulauf .
If you ’ re not already a subscriber to our FS Insider podcast where we interview book authors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ globe on all things economics , finance and markets…

by FS
FS Insider recently spoke to hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf to get his take on the state of the global and U.S. economy. Felix shared his thoughts on what a recovery could look like and why he sees this as a long-term issue. Read below for excerpts from his interview on FS Insider. If you’re not already a subscriber, click here.
For audio, see Felix Zulauf on Why It’ll Take ‘Years’ to Recover from Crisis.
I think this is a decline that has triggered off a lot of problems. We entered this decline with the biggest debt the world has ever seen. Total debt out there in the world relative to GDP is more than double what it was at the last business cycle peak in 2007. And then you go down and your cash flow dries up, and your revenues dry up—that creates all sorts of financial problems. When you have a lot of debt, that means the default risk is going up very high. The central banks are trying to backstop that, but they cannot backstop everything.
The monetary side is helping to backstop the credit markets and the stock market obviously likes it very much. And so, stocks are rallying because people think that this was just a V-shaped decline due to the virus and will be V-shaped, rubber band effect to the upside and we go back to normal. I disagree with that view.
The world economy is in a free fall. We have the biggest decline ever in modern times. This will lead to a huge drop in corporate earnings, in my view. The authorities are trying to backstop the system by providing fiscal help which is enormous and providing monetary help to backstop the credit system. The fiscal help will only begin to work once the whole employment situation normalizes and the restrictions and the lockdown are removed completely. Without that, the fiscal side cannot really work.
We went into this pandemic with a world economy that was already slowing down decisively. Europe was virtually at zero growth early in the year and the U.S. was at 1% growth. China had slowed and only had hesitant signs of stabilization. So, the world economy was slowing down and falling below the 2% growth, that usually is the sign of recession. Then we got a world pandemic and of course, this created a tremendous shock with the lockdown going from Asia to Europe and then to North America.
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So, we will have a huge wave of bankruptcies running and working through the system. I do not know exactly how this will work out. I do not see a V-shaped recovery, rather a U-shaped or even more likely, an L-shaped with the horizontal line being bumpy. That means whenever the fiscal stimulus begins to work, you have a bump up. And once the fiscal stimulus rate of change goes down again, you bump down again. I think that could be the case for the next one to two years.
I think the economic outlook is anything but rosy. I think it’s very, very serious. I do not see how the corporate sector will be able to deliver a lot of earnings growth and in that kind of environment, you have to understand that the corporate sectors in the Western world and also in the Asian world, went into this in the weakest financial condition they ever have been. The U.S. corporate sector was running a financial deficit of 500 billion, Germany was running a deficit of 100 billion euros, France of 100 billion euros, the U.K. owed 45 billion Sterling and Japan was running a slight surplus. China of course has a huge financial deficit of over 10% of GDP.
The corporate sector has entered this difficult economic situation completely unprepared. They have been buying stocks and pushing their stock prices to cashing option plans for top management and the board instead of really having precautionary steps for a rainy day. I think over the next two years, you will see a lot of balance sheet repair work that will restrain economic growth; and therefore, I fear, a relatively dismal economic situation.
On the monetary side, so far, the U.S. has not crossed the red line where central banks finance governments directly. The Bank of England said they will now finance the government directly. This is crossing a red line, and this is very dangerous stuff. So eventually, I think all central banks will do that and it promises we will end this decade in a very inflationary environment. So far, the Fed has not crossed that line, but the way I see the real economy, I think eventually they will do so. The European Central Bank has not crossed that line yet either, but they are very close to doing so because their system is really breaking apart.
I think this is a very interesting and new situation for my generation and for younger generations. Our parents have lived through things like this, but we haven’t, and therefore we do not know how this will work out. We have the monetary side that is very positive for the equity market, of course. But we have to wonder what will happen to equities once they realize that the real economy is not going to deliver what they are expecting? When they realize there is not going to be a rubber band effect in the real economy to the upside, that the earnings outlook will remain dismal for much longer than what they think right now. I think we will most likely have a market environment with big swings up and down between the extremes of fear of missing out on the upside and fear of the economic damage on the downside. This will create huge swings.
The bond markets are more or less finished because we have gone through the disinflationary process, and I’ve been a bond bull since the early 1980s. I think you have to sell your bonds in Europe and in Japan and everywhere. Maybe the U.S. Treasury bonds are the last ones to turn around. I do believe that this has implications for the currency markets.
Right now, the dollar is weakening a little bit. But I believe that the outside world has more problems than the U.S. That has to do with the huge debt burden out there in the offshore market that is denominated in US dollars. That is basically a short position in the US dollar that is at least 12 trillion. That has more than doubled since the last business cycle peak. All those companies, indebted in US dollars, are being strangulated as their currencies have been declining for quite some time.
I think the Fed is trying to address that through swap lines. The person out there that needs that swap line the most is China, for political and strategic reasons. The Fed has not opened the swap lines with the People’s Bank of China. I think at some point the International Monetary Fund has to step in as a broker. And until there are enough dollars around to nourish all those who need dollars to pay back their loans that are denominated in US dollars, I think the US dollar will remain relatively firm.
That is a big problem for some, like the eurozone, where you have a currency concept that is very strange and not solid and rigid. And in situations of stress, rigid setups usually break. I would not be surprised to see some European banks being nationalized over the next couple of months because the stress in the system will rise to enormous levels. It’s very, very tricky.
Gold is a beneficiary of this the deflationary problem. The over indebtedness of the world economy, very low economic growth and the mini depression that we now have, has created so many problems that the central banks are trying to fight it by debasing our currencies. That can be expressed in a higher gold price. So, it’s a remarkable situation that we are living through.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--“While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years, this one is like no other,”… Billionaire

“While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years, this one is like no other,”… Billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management said global stocks could tumble more — ultimately losing half of their value from February’s high

The Next 45 Days Are the ‘ Most Critical Period in U.S. Financial History ’ “ While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years , this one is like no other , ” … After recovering a chunk of the losses racked up during the worst of the coronavirus-induced selloff last month , the stock market finds itself at a crucial inflection point , writes Alan B. Lancz .
“ The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history , ” he wrote in a newsletter published Wednesday .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bear market every 10 years , this one is like no other , ” he said .
The contrarian money manager , who is a disciple of famed investor Sir John Templeton , said that the timing and execution of the reawakening of the U.S. economy from its dormancy could be one of the biggest factors in determining how the market recovers from COVID-19 , which has forced swaths of businesses to shut down to help stem the spread of the deadly contagion that has infected more than 2 million people and claimed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Johns Hopkins University as of Wednesday evening .
Investors Are Underestimating the Economic Shock the World Is Facing Investors are repeating the mistake they made all through February and early March .
They are again underestimating the immense economic shock of COVID-19 .
Kashkari : Banks to Sell $ 200BN In Stock “ Now ” To Survive Coming Crash And Avoid Another Bailout .
The only problem , of course , is that banks will never do that .
Hedge Fund Elliott Says Stocks Could Fall 50 % From February Highs Billionaire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global stocks could tumble more — ultimately losing half of their value from February ’ s high — as the world braces for the deepest recession since the 1930s-era Great Depression , according to a letter sent to clients on Wednesday and reviewed by Reuters .
Fed ’ s Bostic : Small Business May Need up to $ 500 Bln Monthly in Support U.S. small businesses may need as much as $ 500 billion a month to fully ensure their survival through the widespread closures and disruptions slamming their revenue during the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Raphael Bostic said Thursday .

“While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years, this one is like no other,”…
After recovering a chunk of the losses racked up during the worst of the coronavirus-induced selloff last month, the stock market finds itself at a crucial inflection point, writes Alan B. Lancz.
“The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history,” he wrote in a newsletter published Wednesday. “While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years, this one is like no other,” he said.
The contrarian money manager, who is a disciple of famed investor Sir John Templeton, said that the timing and execution of the reawakening of the U.S. economy from its dormancy could be one of the biggest factors in determining how the market recovers from COVID-19, which has forced swaths of businesses to shut down to help stem the spread of the deadly contagion that has infected more than 2 million people and claimed 137,000 lives, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University as of Wednesday evening. We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Investors are repeating the mistake they made all through February and early March. They are again underestimating the immense economic shock of COVID-19.
And Avoid Another Bailout. The only problem, of course, is that banks will never do that.
Billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management said global stocks could tumble more — ultimately losing half of their value from February’s high — as the world braces for the deepest recession since the 1930s-era Great Depression, according to a letter sent to clients on Wednesday and reviewed by Reuters.
U.S. small businesses may need as much as $500 billion a month to fully ensure their survival through the widespread closures and disruptions slamming their revenue during the coronavirus crisis, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Raphael Bostic said Thursday.
what could possibly go wrong? pic.twitter.com/4u4AeeB1SV — StockCats (@StockCats) April 16, 2020
Morgan Stanley's wealthy clients? Yeah, they're sticking with cash for now. It's a reminder that just because every asset manager seems to be starting a opportunistic credit fund, not all individual investors are ready to load up on risk.t.co/ZEzFjmyfpU — Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) April 16, 2020
The Fed's Kashkari calls on big U.S. banks to suspend dividend payments & raise more equity. "The most patriotic thing they could do today would be to stop paying dividends and raise equity capital, to ensure that they can endure a deep economic downturn"
t.co/NUKAk1Qc2F — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--An example of how COVID19 is going change the future of business forever

My company is based out of a city in America ( I ’ m being vague on purpose ) we support operations all across the world .
Our central office has about 150~ employees who work out of a building in a very big , very expensive city and we pay around $ 115k a month for our office .
It comes out to 1.38 million a year plus other costs ( power/heat/etc/janitorial service ) in all I believe we spend close to 1.8-1.9 million a year on this office space No customers actually visit the office , and we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m on the field side of operations we operate outside of an office environment all the time and for years I along with quite a few folks on the field side have been questioning why are we spending so much money on a physical location when it provides no real value ?
The answer was always “ We need a place for our support staff to work out of ” However due to COVID19 our head office was required to shut down , however our worldwide operations are still going on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ function so we moved to a 100 % work from home , we literally just told our support staff to pack up their computers and go home .
For the first week or so we had some growing pain issues , but ever since then , everything has been fine .
We got an email from our CEO saying that effective immediately our head office will be permanently closed .
Instead all employees will be provided with a monthly allowance for office supplies , new hires will be provided with a one-time office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will now work remotely from home .
For company functions , we ’ ll rent out space as required on a day to day basis .
I can see a lot of companies taking this approach , I could see a lot of big corporations going “ You know what ?
We operated just fine working form home why do I need to spend millions for a place for our employees to work out of ?
” Funny enough the last company I worked for back in 2016 I was the last employee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I was hired , I came to work and my manager said “ I know this place looks empty , you are actually going be the last new hire to ever step foot in here ” he later said company wide the company was spending something like $ 75 million a year on office space and it figured it could save shit tons of money by having everyone work from home .

by PJExpat
My company is based out of a city in America (I’m being vague on purpose) we support operations all across the world. Our central office has about 150~ employees who work out of a building in a very big, very expensive city and we pay around $115k a month for our office. It comes out to 1.38 million a year plus other costs (power/heat/etc/janitorial service) in all I believe we spend close to 1.8-1.9 million a year on this office space
No customers actually visit the office, and we very rarely even meet vendors there.
I’m on the field side of operations we operate outside of an office environment all the time and for years I along with quite a few folks on the field side have been questioning why are we spending so much money on a physical location when it provides no real value?
The answer was always “We need a place for our support staff to work out of”
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However due to COVID19 our head office was required to shut down, however our worldwide operations are still going on and they need the head office to function so we moved to a 100% work from home, we literally just told our support staff to pack up their computers and go home.
For the first week or so we had some growing pain issues, but ever since then, everything has been fine. We got an email from our CEO saying that effective immediately our head office will be permanently closed. Instead all employees will be provided with a monthly allowance for office supplies, new hires will be provided with a one-time office setup bonus and all our support staff will now work remotely from home. For company functions, we’ll rent out space as required on a day to day basis.
I can see a lot of companies taking this approach, I could see a lot of big corporations going “You know what? We operated just fine working form home why do I need to spend millions for a place for our employees to work out of?”
Funny enough the last company I worked for back in 2016 I was the last employee to work in an office for them. I was hired, I came to work and my manager said “I know this place looks empty, you are actually going be the last new hire to ever step foot in here” he later said company wide the company was spending something like $75 million a year on office space and it figured it could save shit tons of money by having everyone work from home.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--China’s economy set for first contraction since 1976 as Covid-19 rips up Beijing’s grand plan

China will release its first quarter gross domestic product ( GDP ) data on Friday morning , with the median @ @ @ @ @ for a fall of 6 per cent Predictions in the survey range from a deep @ @ @ @ @ to a modest expansion of 3.6 per cent following a growth rate of 6.1 per @ @ @

China will release its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday morning, with the median estimate from a Bloomberg survey for a fall of 6 per cent
Predictions in the survey range from a deep contraction of 16 per cent to a modest expansion of 3.6 per cent following a growth rate of 6.1 per cent in 2019


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Fed’s Bostic Says U.S. Businesses Face Survival Crisis in May [Bloomberg]

Credit challenges becoming ‘ more widespread and more acute ’ Atlanta Fed chief urges governments , banks to provide support Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said many U.S. businesses will struggle as early as next month to survive amid coronavirus-related shutdowns and urged both governments and banks to provide relief quickly to help prevent widespread failures .
“ What we are hearing from our contacts is that May is going to loom as a large month , in terms of the transition of concern from this being a liquidity issue — one where we are really talking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ translating and transferring into a solvency issue , and whether companies can exist at all , ” Bostic said Wednesday via videoconference to civic groups in Birmingham , Alabama .
The Fed is moving aggressively to try to provide a lending bridge during the crisis , Bostic said .
The central bank pledged as much as $ 2.3 trillion in lending , while cutting interest rates to near zero , including expanding its credit in unprecedented ways such as loans to state and local governments and purchases of so-called junk bonds — those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the goal has been to ensure the economy resembles its pre-crisis state , that wouldn ’ t be possible if businesses are shuttered en masse , Bostic said .
Much will depend on the health-care policy response and how quickly American workers and businesses feel confident they can return to work , he said .

Credit challenges becoming ‘more widespread and more acute’
Atlanta Fed chief urges governments, banks to provide support
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said many U.S. businesses will struggle as early as next month to survive amid coronavirus-related shutdowns and urged both governments and banks to provide relief quickly to help prevent widespread failures.
“What we are hearing from our contacts is that May is going to loom as a large month, in terms of the transition of concern from this being a liquidity issue — one where we are really talking about cash flows — to this perhaps translating and transferring into a solvency issue, and whether companies can exist at all,” Bostic said Wednesday via videoconference to civic groups in Birmingham, Alabama.
The Fed is moving aggressively to try to provide a lending bridge during the crisis, Bostic said. The central bank pledged as much as $2.3 trillion in lending, while cutting interest rates to near zero, including expanding its credit in unprecedented ways such as loans to state and local governments and purchases of so-called junk bonds — those with lower than investment-grade ratings.
While the goal has been to ensure the economy resembles its pre-crisis state, that wouldn’t be possible if businesses are shuttered en masse, Bostic said. Much will depend on the health-care policy response and how quickly American workers and businesses feel confident they can return to work, he said.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Paypal PPP Funded in Less than 24 Hours – $217K

Paypal was the best and fastest funding choice for us after the SBA and Chase both failed to move on our apps or should I say just FAILED .
$ 217,000 funded today via Paypal to keep our 28 employees employed .
4/14 2:00PM – Submitted app with copies of our quarterly payroll reports to Paypal .
4/14 2:45PM – Received two Docusign emails from Paypal .
One was to sign the app .
One was a loan note .
4/15 8:30 AM – Received email saying loan approved by SBA .
4/15 10:30 AM – Received funds in our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completed 3/21 ( long form ) and we received a number .
Completed short form on 3/30 and still have heard nothing .
376 # # # Oh , I did talk to the SBA after waiting on hold for three hours on or around 3/30 and the lady laughed at me .
She was nice as she said , Oh , it ’ s going to take at least a month for anyone to get any money .
She said we should just wait for a loan officer to call us .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ business bank ) gave us a pending loan number after filling out a PPP app on 4/3 but we never heard back from them again .
Fuck Chase – we ’ re moving to a small local bank after things settle back down .
To those of you still waiting for your loan I feel your pain and hope you get through the process soon .
It ’ s a huge relief to see the PPP funds in our account .

by WilburLarch
Paypal was the best and fastest funding choice for us after the SBA and Chase both failed to move on our apps or should I say just FAILED. $217,000 funded today via Paypal to keep our 28 employees employed.
4/14 2:00PM – Submitted app with copies of our quarterly payroll reports to Paypal.
4/14 2:45PM – Received two Docusign emails from Paypal. One was to sign the app. One was a loan note.
4/15 8:30 AM – Received email saying loan approved by SBA.
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4/15 10:30 AM – Received funds in our bank account.
SBA EIDL app was completed 3/21 (long form) and we received a number. Completed short form on 3/30 and still have heard nothing. 376### Oh, I did talk to the SBA after waiting on hold for three hours on or around 3/30 and the lady laughed at me. She was nice as she said, Oh, it’s going to take at least a month for anyone to get any money. She said we should just wait for a loan officer to call us. Still waiting SBA.
Chase (our business bank) gave us a pending loan number after filling out a PPP app on 4/3 but we never heard back from them again. Fuck Chase – we’re moving to a small local bank after things settle back down.
To those of you still waiting for your loan I feel your pain and hope you get through the process soon. It’s a huge relief to see the PPP funds in our account.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Nancy Pelosi has deleted the video from February 24th encouraging people to come to Chinatown.

Nancy Pelosi has deleted the video from February 24th encouraging people to come to Chinatown .

Nancy Pelosi has deleted the video from February 24th encouraging people to come to Chinatown.
Good thing the internet is forever. pic.twitter.com/nXS6ikzQ3E
— Courtney Holland 🇺🇸 (@hollandcourtney) April 15, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--PPP going through lenders vs. SBA was supposed to be a godsend. feels more like a nightmare at this

PPP going through lenders vs. SBA was supposed to be a godsend. feels more like a nightmare at this point

I think everyone on this sub is fully aware the sba has bungled the eidl rollout .
that said , there at least seems to be some measure of fairness or at least consistency in the SBA ’ s process .
first in , first out .
everyone dealing with the same rules .
even though they ’ ve taken it upon themselves to administer the EIDL advance in a way not really dictated by congress ( $ 1k per employee up to $ 10k ) .
to be fair , even congress said up to $ 10k , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of employees would be what determined that amount .
PPP on the other hand has been a complete nightmare .
banks are putting artificial caps on lending , refusing to lend to non-existing customers , cherry picking which applicants get funded vs. others .
there ’ s no semblance of fairness or consistency .
BofA initially refusing to take existing customers unless they had a lending relationship in addition to business checking .
Other large banks still not accepting any applications even after 10+ day of PPP rollout .
Ruth ’ s Chris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while thousands of small businesses can ’ t get a response from Chase .
Hedge funds are getting PPP funds .
legit small businesses are being completely shut out through no fault of their own .
if the PPP gets additional funding , I hope Congress takes it out of the banks ’ hands .
I ’ d rather deal with the slow as hell but relatively fair SBA than let the banks screw us all over while they prioritize their massive clients .
super disappointing that congress put this in the hands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy ten years ago .
banks are gon na bank…greed is the name of the game for them .

by jochexum
I think everyone on this sub is fully aware the sba has bungled the eidl rollout.
that said, there at least seems to be some measure of fairness or at least consistency in the SBA’s process. first in, first out. everyone dealing with the same rules. even though they’ve taken it upon themselves to administer the EIDL advance in a way not really dictated by congress ($1k per employee up to $10k). to be fair, even congress said up to $10k, they just didn’t specify that # of employees would be what determined that amount.
PPP on the other hand has been a complete nightmare. banks are putting artificial caps on lending, refusing to lend to non-existing customers, cherry picking which applicants get funded vs. others. there’s no semblance of fairness or consistency.
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BofA initially refusing to take existing customers unless they had a lending relationship in addition to business checking. Other large banks still not accepting any applications even after 10+ day of PPP rollout. Ruth’s Chris quickly got $20 million from Chase while thousands of small businesses can’t get a response from Chase. Hedge funds are getting PPP funds. legit small businesses are being completely shut out through no fault of their own.
if the PPP gets additional funding, I hope Congress takes it out of the banks’ hands. I’d rather deal with the slow as hell but relatively fair SBA than let the banks screw us all over while they prioritize their massive clients.
super disappointing that congress put this in the hands of the same people who wrecked the economy ten years ago. banks are gonna bank…greed is the name of the game for them.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Are major European oil companies undervalued compared to the US oil majors.

Specifically I was thinking the major European companies like Shell and BP .
• BP down to lows not seen since 1997 .
• Shell down to lows not seen since 1996 One of the major drivers for the low oil stocks worldwide is the expected collapse of US shale .
However , BP especially is not particularly exposed to this market .
Is there an argument that a long term investment into the European oil companies is reasonable at this stage .
BP is not really in the US shale market ?
Currently only around 3 % of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 ] .
However , Shell is actually very exposed with output of around 250,000 [ 3 ] out of an overall production of 1.77 mil barrels [ 4 ] .
For a minimum shale output of 14 % of total output .
Looking at the US companies , which are far more involved in the US shale market than BP : • Exxon Mobile to lows not seen since 2004 ( ~7 % shale but massive recent investment ) [ 5 ] • ConocoPhilips to lows not seen since 2004 ( couldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high ) [ 6 ] • Chevron to lows not seen since 2006 ( ~10 % shale but massive recent investment ) [ 5 ] Possibly implying there is more value in the European stocks .
Maybe I ’ m overestimating the impact of shale problems on the stock prices but I can ’ t shake the feeling that the European majors are much cheaper that the US majors despite less exposure to the shale market – with BP especially looking very attractive to me .
Any opinions ?
Disclaimer : This information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by hjaltlander
Specifically I was thinking the major European companies like Shell and BP.
BP down to lows not seen since 1997.
Shell down to lows not seen since 1996
One of the major drivers for the low oil stocks worldwide is the expected collapse of US shale. However, BP especially is not particularly exposed to this market.
Is there an argument that a long term investment into the European oil companies is reasonable at this stage. BP is not really in the US shale market? Currently only around 3% of their output is shale [1][2].
However, Shell is actually very exposed with output of around 250,000 [3] out of an overall production of 1.77 mil barrels [4]. For a minimum shale output of 14% of total output.
Looking at the US companies, which are far more involved in the US shale market than BP:
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Exxon Mobile to lows not seen since 2004 (~7% shale but massive recent investment) [5]
ConocoPhilips to lows not seen since 2004 (couldn’t find numbers but likely very high) [6]
Chevron to lows not seen since 2006 (~10% shale but massive recent investment) [5]
Possibly implying there is more value in the European stocks.
Maybe I’m overestimating the impact of shale problems on the stock prices but I can’t shake the feeling that the European majors are much cheaper that the US majors despite less exposure to the shale market – with BP especially looking very attractive to me. Any opinions?
Sources: [1] – www.reuters.com/article/bp-results-shale/bp-more-than-doubles-u-s-shale-oil-output-in-2019-idUSL8N2A42QC [2] – www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/what-we-do/bp-at-a-glance.html [3] – www.reuters.com/article/us-royal-dutch-shell-shell-shale/shell-boosts-crude-output-in-top-u-s-shale-field-to-250000-bpd-idUSKBN1ZZ2KR?il=0 [4] – www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/013020-shell-suffers-in-q4-despite-6-jump-in-oil-output [5] – www.ft.com/content/5543d674-b512-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b [6] – www.vault.com/company-profiles/oil-gas/conocophillips
(Too much of a scientist, feels wrong to not provide sources…)
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Harsh Lockdown Crackdown: Is Your Liberty in Jeopardy During Pandemic?

When authorities use harsh lockdown enforcement tactics , it makes news , but perhaps the stunning feature of the reaction @ @ @ @ @ how rarely it happens .
While it ’ s always wise to be vigilant about @ @ @ @ @ s also important to take a clear-eyed view of the situation on the ground .

When authorities use harsh lockdown enforcement tactics, it makes news, but perhaps the stunning feature of the reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic is how rarely it happens. While it’s always wise to be vigilant about our freedoms, it’s also important to take a clear-eyed view of the situation on the ground.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--YOUR AWFUL MEDIA AT WORK:

YOUR AWFUL MEDIA AT WORK:

Why did you guys not include the earlier part of the quote ?
Trump : “ We ’ re going @ @ @ @ @ Spain , France , other nations , and we ’ re going to be helping @ @ @ @ @ Russia is going to need ventilators .
They ’ re having a hard time in @ @

Why did you guys not include the earlier part of the quote?
Trump: “We’re going to be helping Italy, Spain, France, other nations, and we’re going to be helping them strongly. I think Russia is going to need ventilators. They’re having a hard time in Moscow”
(They're both CNN) t.co/6wlnWd4H1V pic.twitter.com/vCnQFCQX1b
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Deaths per thousand persons, Norway, Finland, Denmark, and Sweden

So much for Sweden ’ s strategy , at least we know not to emulate it .

by fp_weenie
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So much for Sweden’s strategy, at least we know not to emulate it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Senate Judiciary Committee questioning North Carolina’s Governer regarding Raleigh Police banning pr

Senate Judiciary Committee questioning North Carolina’s Governer regarding Raleigh Police banning protesting

Be aware of the progressive takedown method used in Colorado .
It already looks like Virginia is on the same @ @ @ @ @ many other states are targeted .

Ha the governor will throw this department so far under the bus! pic.twitter.com/zSx76yfkjH — Misguided Mormon (@MisguidedMormon) April 15, 2020
Be aware of the progressive takedown method used in Colorado. It already looks like Virginia is on the same path. Who knows how many other states are targeted.
Rocky Mountain Heist [Full Documentary] vimeo.com/108489041
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h/t Tradox