investmentwatchblog--2020-06-25--2020 Economic Predictions: This Series of Unfortunate Events Guarantees the Epocalypse

Look at the plethora of problems in my list of 2020 economic predictions , which are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it ’ s more difficult to imagine they won ’ t get worse than to believe they will .
Some are so bad that just a few of them would plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes .
Here are my economic predictions for the remainder of 2020 This list of economic predictions is not hard to come up with .
It is , however , the fact that it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year that makes this year ’ s list so important .
I think most readers will agree with the likelihood of most predictions on this list .
The point of the list , then , is to show by the aggregate of calamities that will wash over us how close to certain is a deep economic depression .
( Most are problems central banks have zero capacity to resolve . )
This depression is something many people may not perceive until they widen their field of vision to see the full ocean of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pound the entire world in wave after wave for months or even years to come .
Many people are living right now in the delusional hope of a V-shaped recovery from the recent Coronacrisis lockdown .
The list below shows why that is the most unlikely possibility imaginable .
During this time of economic crisis , most of the predictions listed below are current events that are almost certain to continue as the major trends of 2020 and are likely to even worsen , plunging us into the chaos of a deep economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The social unrest of BLM will become even more widespread and intense .
• Additional social unrest over forced social distancing will reappear around the nation as distancing measures return .
• Social unrest over corporate bailouts is likely to begin as the Federal Reserve and government stack up mega bailouts for the rich ( or as bailouts already given become known ) via the insanely rich BlackRock , which has been given a monopoly on administering handouts for which only the wealthiest qualify .
• Tearing down of monuments and other acts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BLM from those who value the monuments or just want the history of both sides preserved .
• So , social unrest will beget more social unrest .
• All the turmoil of a likely-to-be contested election with all the accusations of Russian tampering and other hacking ( like what just happened to Trump ’ s Tulsa rally ) will cause even more social unrest .
• All those social conflicts will negatively impact some local businesses already hurting badly from the COVID-19 lockdown because they will be unable to reopen due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not afford anything that causes further damage to business .
• Social distancing being ignored entirely by BLM protestors , will increase the spread of COVID-19 as will reopening , ending the stock market ’ s fantasy of a V-shaped recovery .
( Even if the Coronacrisis is a trumped-up hoax as some say , the same scenario will give the hoax all kinds of new ( and news ) stories to grow on . )
• Travel and hospitality will certainly remain in deep depression as COVID-19 stages resurgences .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in bankruptcies in the oil and gas industry .
• Shutdowns of major summer events will depress local business and government revenue as will shutdowns of sports events and concerts .
• Local governments will be forced to downsize staffing quickly and cut back projects of all kinds due to hugely diminished tax revenue caused by all the troubles listed here , causing a new wave of job losses , not just in government but in companies that contract for government projects .
• Diminished policing will result in a huge crime wave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result from police department defunding ; some will be required in other ways by liberal governments seeking to placate protestors ; and a lot will happen because police officers resign and no new people want to become police in the present atmosphere .
This will be as damaging to Black communities as to White and will have a suppressive effect on economic activity .
• Business uncertainty due to the continuing trade wars and to additional COVID-19 border lockdowns , as well as inability of businesses to get parts across borders even for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , will act like gravity on the hope of economic lift .
( What a time to be doubling down on trade wars , but here we go already ! )
• We all know the federal debt will keep growing at an exponential rate because of reduced taxes that were supposed to be paid for by a rise to 4 % or better GDP growth .
That ’ s now a distant dream when the best we will see is -10 % GDP growth .
Compounding the retreat in GDP and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have increased government spending due to COVID-19 stimulus efforts .
All of that will require the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt to the moon and back .
At some point that will call into question the current US credit rating .
• So many bonds sliding toward junk because the weak business economy will force all kinds of already risky credit to become riskier and become downgraded .
• Forced offloading of that debt by institutions that are not allowed to carry junk bonds , will cause huge bond market problems and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refinance by issuing new bonds .
That will force the Fed to continue to soak up ever larger amounts of junkier debt , moving further down the junk spectrum , even as it also has to fund the federal government ’ s exploding debt plus the new exploding debts of local governments via new “ special vehicles.
” • The stock market , being utterly dependent on the Fed continuing to print money while also utterly dependent on COVID-19 keeping its head down , will go down hard again , likely this summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I predict it will ultimately fall lower than its nadir in March .
• That will cause more wealth evaporation , leading to more natural economic tightening across the financial and business spectrum .
• The second wave of COVID-19 will be worse than the first when the fall flu season hits or maybe even this summer , given that the hottest rise in cases is happening in our hottest states .
That makes it obvious that climate temperature does nothing to slow the spread .
• Some major banks and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Deutsche Bank , and in other nations will crash .
US institutions will get pulled down by their associations .
• Many businesses will never reopen even though the economy has been reopened legally .
Many others that do re-open will close for good before long because partial reopening is not enough to sustain them and , in some cases , may even cause them to lose more money than if they stayed closed .
( Already , as I predicted prior to the opening would happen all across America , I see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not reopen , and I ’ ve talked to people in restaurants that did reopen who say they are not even able to fill their reduced 50 % capacity under social distancing rules because they can ’ t get enough customers to return .
Restaurants are slim-margin business , so many will fail . )
And that is even if the Coronacrisis doesn ’ t have a resurgence .
• More shopping malls that were already marginal will close forever after reopening because of the number of businesses that do not return or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • That , in turn , will have a knock-on effect for other surrounding businesses that now experience less traffic .
• Due to the continuing sweep of all the problems listed above , we are in for a deep , longterm jobs depression .
• That means housing and commercial real-estate will crash again as longterm unemployment and business losses result in mortgage defaults .
• The resulting deep slowdown in construction will mean even more job losses .
• That means some US banks will crash ( or have to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though maybe not until 2021 ) due to all the loan problems caused by all of the above , resulting in even more job losses .
• Add to all of these near certainties , the growing possibilities of more international wars that we already see rising in risk — North Korea v. South Korea , North Korea v. the US , Israel v. Iran , Israel v. the Palestinians over annexation of parts of the West Bank , Saudi Arabia v. Yemen , China v. Taiwan , China v. Nepal , China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Many of these conflicts seem to have intensified over the past year , and that ’ s just a short list of currently rising or continuing international conflicts .
• Civil wars within various nations are more likely because of the rising economic troubles and social strife listed here as well as continued growing strife due to immigration pressures that developed under globalization .
• I won ’ t predict the US dollar will collapse , BUT … this is the FIRST year in which I ’ ve ever said that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it lay dimly in the future .
Nations are angry over how the dollar has been repeatedly weaponized by the US via sanctions .
So , I am certain the indomitable dollar will finally start to experience struggles of its own due to all the problems listed here , which will result in the Federal Reserve being less able to manage the financial chaos nationally and internationally , and due to competition from new central bank digital currencies this year , maybe , but especially next .
• Add to all of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ events , such as earthquakes , volcanism , hurricanes , tornadoes , floods , droughts , pestilence , wildfires , and , oh , an asteroid or two .
The difference this year is that those big catastrophes will be hitting badly crippled economies and stressed societies wherever they hit in this world .
( We can not know what will hit or whether the number of such events will be lighter or heavier than other years because these are black-swan events — things we know CAN happen but have no knowledge of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a particular area in any given year .
What we do know is that nations struggling under an economic crisis and an emergency health crisis will be less able to manage those events when they hit .
Organizations like FEMA will be stretched way beyond their capacities . )
That ’ s a long list of finger-in-the-wind economic predictions .
I ’ m not saying all of them will be dominant trends this year , and I can ’ t say when or in what order each one will happen ; but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of my 2020 economic predictions will play out as stated above , and that is more than enough to assure the deep economic depression I ’ ve named “ The Epocalyse.
” I invite you to offer your own social or economic predictions for 2020 ( whether as additions or subtractions to the list above ) that you see as highly likely to develop ( good or bad ) in the comments below so that we benefit from each others ’ observations and insights .

by David Haggith
Look at the plethora of problems in my list of 2020 economic predictions, which are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Some are so bad that just a few of them would plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.
Here are my economic predictions for the remainder of 2020
This list of economic predictions is not hard to come up with. It is, however, the fact that it is so easy to predict these things this year that makes this year’s list so important.
I think most readers will agree with the likelihood of most predictions on this list. The point of the list, then, is to show by the aggregate of calamities that will wash over us how close to certain is a deep economic depression. (Most are problems central banks have zero capacity to resolve.)
This depression is something many people may not perceive until they widen their field of vision to see the full ocean of likely troubles that are nearly certain to pound the entire world in wave after wave for months or even years to come.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
(Though I focus on the US, the same economics predictions are likely to apply all over the world with their own variations of local color.)
Many people are living right now in the delusional hope of a V-shaped recovery from the recent Coronacrisis lockdown. The list below shows why that is the most unlikely possibility imaginable.
During this time of economic crisis, most of the predictions listed below are current events that are almost certain to continue as the major trends of 2020 and are likely to even worsen, plunging us into the chaos of a deep economic collapse, worse than 2008:
The social unrest of BLM will become even more widespread and intense.
will become even more widespread and intense. Additional social unrest over forced social distancing will reappear around the nation as distancing measures return.
will reappear around the nation as distancing measures return. Social unrest over corporate bailouts is likely to begin as the Federal Reserve and government stack up mega bailouts for the rich (or as bailouts already given become known) via the insanely rich BlackRock, which has been given a monopoly on administering handouts for which only the wealthiest qualify.
is likely to begin as the Federal Reserve and government stack up mega bailouts for the rich (or as bailouts already given become known) via the insanely rich BlackRock, which has been given a monopoly on administering handouts for which only the wealthiest qualify. Tearing down of monuments and other acts of violence will certainly create backlash against BLM from those who value the monuments or just want the history of both sides preserved.
from those who value the monuments or just want the history of both sides preserved. So, social unrest will beget more social unrest.
All the turmoil of a likely-to-be contested election with all the accusations of Russian tampering and other hacking (like what just happened to Trump’s Tulsa rally) will cause even more social unrest.
with all the accusations of Russian tampering and other hacking (like what just happened to Trump’s Tulsa rally) will cause even more social unrest. All those social conflicts will negatively impact some local businesses already hurting badly from the COVID-19 lockdown because they will be unable to reopen due to the protests at a time when we cannot afford anything that causes further damage to business.
because they will be unable to reopen due to the protests at a time when we cannot afford anything that causes further damage to business. Social distancing being ignored entirely by BLM protestors, will increase the spread of COVID-19 as will reopening, ending the stock market’s fantasy of a V-shaped recovery. (Even if the Coronacrisis is a trumped-up hoax as some say, the same scenario will give the hoax all kinds of new (and news) stories to grow on.)
as will reopening, ending the stock market’s fantasy of a V-shaped recovery. (Even if the Coronacrisis is a trumped-up hoax as some say, the same scenario will give the hoax all kinds of new (and news) stories to grow on.) Travel and hospitality will certainly remain in deep depression as COVID-19 stages resurgences.
as COVID-19 stages resurgences. Lack of travel assures a continued rise in bankruptcies in the oil and gas industry.
Shutdowns of major summer events will depress local business and government revenue as will shutdowns of sports events and concerts.
Local governments will be forced to downsize staffing quickly and cut back projects of all kinds due to hugely diminished tax revenue caused by all the troubles listed here, causing a new wave of job losses, not just in government but in companies that contract for government projects.
staffing quickly and cut back projects of all kinds due to hugely diminished tax revenue caused by all the troubles listed here, causing a new wave of job losses, not just in government but in companies that contract for government projects. Diminished policing will result in a huge crime wave across America. Some of that will result from police department defunding; some will be required in other ways by liberal governments seeking to placate protestors; and a lot will happen because police officers resign and no new people want to become police in the present atmosphere. This will be as damaging to Black communities as to White and will have a suppressive effect on economic activity.
Some of that will result from police department defunding; some will be required in other ways by liberal governments seeking to placate protestors; and a lot will happen because police officers resign and no new people want to become police in the present atmosphere. This will be as damaging to Black communities as to White and will have a suppressive effect on economic activity. Business uncertainty due to the continuing trade wars and to additional COVID-19 border lockdowns , as well as inability of businesses to get parts across borders even for products produced and sold within the nation, will act like gravity on the hope of economic lift. (What a time to be doubling down on trade wars, but here we go already!)
, as well as inability of businesses to get parts across borders even for products produced and sold within the nation, (What a time to be doubling down on trade wars, but here we go already!) We all know the federal debt will keep growing at an exponential rate because of reduced taxes that were supposed to be paid for by a rise to 4% or better GDP growth. That’s now a distant dream when the best we will see is -10% GDP growth. Compounding the retreat in GDP and the resulting drop in tax revenues, we have increased government spending due to COVID-19 stimulus efforts. All of that will require the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt to the moon and back. At some point that will call into question the current US credit rating.
4% or better GDP growth. That’s now a distant dream when the best we will see is -10% GDP growth. Compounding the retreat in GDP and the resulting drop in tax revenues, we have increased government spending due to COVID-19 stimulus efforts. All of that will require So many bonds sliding toward junk because the weak business economy will force all kinds of already risky credit to become riskier and become downgraded.
because the weak business economy will force all kinds of already risky credit to become riskier and Forced offloading of that debt by institutions that are not allowed to carry junk bonds, will cause huge bond market problems and defaults by those who can no longer refinance by issuing new bonds. That will force the Fed to continue to soak up ever larger amounts of junkier debt, moving further down the junk spectrum, even as it also has to fund the federal government’s exploding debt plus the new exploding debts of local governments via new “special vehicles.”
by those who can no longer refinance by issuing new bonds. That will force the Fed to continue to soak up ever larger amounts of junkier debt, moving further down the junk spectrum, even as it also has to fund the federal government’s exploding debt plus the new exploding debts of local governments via new “special vehicles.” The stock market , being utterly dependent on the Fed continuing to print money while also utterly dependent on COVID-19 keeping its head down, will go down hard again , likely this summer and probably again in the fourth quarter. I predict it will ultimately fall lower than its nadir in March.
, being utterly dependent on the Fed continuing to print money while also utterly dependent on COVID-19 keeping its head down, , likely this summer and probably again in the fourth quarter. I predict it will ultimately fall lower than its nadir in March. That will cause more wealth evaporation, leading to more natural economic tightening across the financial and business spectrum.
across the financial and business spectrum. The second wave of COVID-19 will be worse than the first when the fall flu season hits or maybe even this summer, given that the hottest rise in cases is happening in our hottest states. That makes it obvious that climate temperature does nothing to slow the spread.
when the fall flu season hits or maybe even this summer, given that the hottest rise in cases is happening in our hottest states. That makes it obvious that climate temperature does nothing to slow the spread. Some major banks and other financial institutions in Europe, such as Deutsche Bank, and in other nations will crash. US institutions will get pulled down by their associations.
US institutions will get pulled down by their associations. Many businesses will never reopen even though the economy has been reopened legally. Many others that do re-open will close for good before long because partial reopening is not enough to sustain them and, in some cases, may even cause them to lose more money than if they stayed closed. (Already, as I predicted prior to the opening would happen all across America, I see restaurants in my own area that did not reopen, and I’ve talked to people in restaurants that did reopen who say they are not even able to fill their reduced 50% capacity under social distancing rules because they can’t get enough customers to return. Restaurants are slim-margin business, so many will fail.) And that is even if the Coronacrisis doesn’t have a resurgence.
even though the economy has been reopened legally. Many others that do re-open will close for good before long because partial reopening is not enough to sustain them and, in some cases, may even cause them to lose more money than if they stayed closed. (Already, as I predicted prior to the opening would happen all across America, I see restaurants in my own area that did not reopen, and I’ve talked to people in restaurants that did reopen who say they are not even able to fill their reduced 50% capacity under social distancing rules because they can’t get enough customers to return. Restaurants are slim-margin business, so many will fail.) And that is even if the Coronacrisis doesn’t have a resurgence. More shopping malls that were already marginal will close forever after reopening because of the number of businesses that do not return or that fail during the partial reopening.
after reopening because of the number of businesses that do not return or that fail during the partial reopening. That, in turn, will have a knock-on effect for other surrounding businesses that now experience less traffic.
that now experience less traffic. Due to the continuing sweep of all the problems listed above, we are in for a deep, longterm jobs depression.
That means housing and commercial real-estate will crash again as longterm unemployment and business losses result in mortgage defaults.
as longterm unemployment and business losses result in mortgage defaults. The resulting deep slowdown in construction will mean even more job losses.
That means some US banks will crash (or have to be bailed out by the Fed) (though maybe not until 2021) due to all the loan problems caused by all of the above, resulting in even more job losses.
(or have to be bailed out by the Fed) (though maybe not until 2021) due to all the loan problems caused by all of the above, resulting in even more job losses. Add to all of these near certainties, the growing possibilities of more international wars that we already see rising in risk — North Korea v. South Korea, North Korea v. the US, Israel v. Iran, Israel v. the Palestinians over annexation of parts of the West Bank, Saudi Arabia v. Yemen, China v. Taiwan, China v. Nepal, China v. the US, India v. Pakistan. Many of these conflicts seem to have intensified over the past year, and that’s just a short list of currently rising or continuing international conflicts.
that we already see rising in risk — North Korea v. South Korea, North Korea v. the US, Israel v. Iran, Israel v. the Palestinians over annexation of parts of the West Bank, Saudi Arabia v. Yemen, China v. Taiwan, China v. Nepal, China v. the US, India v. Pakistan. Many of these conflicts seem to have intensified over the past year, and that’s just a short list of currently rising or continuing international conflicts. Civil wars within various nations are more likely because of the rising economic troubles and social strife listed here as well as continued growing strife due to immigration pressures that developed under globalization.
within various nations are more likely because of the rising economic troubles and social strife listed here as well as continued growing strife due to immigration pressures that developed under globalization. I won’t predict the US dollar will collapse, BUT … this is the FIRST year in which I’ve ever said that is a reasonable possibility. Until now, it lay dimly in the future. Nations are angry over how the dollar has been repeatedly weaponized by the US via sanctions. So, I am certain the indomitable dollar will finally start to experience struggles of its own due to all the problems listed here, which will result in the Federal Reserve being less able to manage the financial chaos nationally and internationally, and due to competition from new central bank digital currencies this year, maybe, but especially next.
Until now, it lay dimly in the future. Nations are angry over how the dollar has been repeatedly weaponized by the US via sanctions. So, I am certain the indomitable dollar will finally start to experience struggles of its own due to all the problems listed here, which will result in the Federal Reserve being less able to manage the financial chaos nationally and internationally, and due to competition from new central bank digital currencies this year, maybe, but especially next. Add to all of that the normal economic crises from major exogenous events, such as earthquakes, volcanism, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, pestilence, wildfires, and, oh, an asteroid or two. The difference this year is that those big catastrophes will be hitting badly crippled economies and stressed societies wherever they hit in this world. (We cannot know what will hit or whether the number of such events will be lighter or heavier than other years because these are black-swan events — things we know CAN happen but have no knowledge of the specific likelihood of any particular event in a particular area in any given year. What we do know is that nations struggling under an economic crisis and an emergency health crisis will be less able to manage those events when they hit. Organizations like FEMA will be stretched way beyond their capacities.)
That’s a long list of finger-in-the-wind economic predictions. I’m not saying all of them will be dominant trends this year, and I can’t say when or in what order each one will happen; but I am certain 80% or more of my 2020 economic predictions will play out as stated above, and that is more than enough to assure the deep economic depression I’ve named “The Epocalyse.”
I invite you to offer your own social or economic predictions for 2020 (whether as additions or subtractions to the list above) that you see as highly likely to develop (good or bad) in the comments below so that we benefit from each others’ observations and insights.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-25--FOX: “More than 6 dozen alleged rioters face federal charges in weeks of unrest across US – Unclear

FOX: “More than 6 dozen alleged rioters face federal charges in weeks of unrest across US – Unclear exactly how many more investigation

FOX : “ More than 6 dozen alleged rioters face federal charges in weeks of unrest across US ” Federal @ @ @ @ @ of more than six dozen people on charges ranging from murder to arson to looting @ @ @ @ @ grew out of protests over the death of George Floyd in the past five weeks @ @ @ @ @ exactly how many more investigations may be underway .
No cops , no problems !
@ @

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
FOX: “More than 6 dozen alleged rioters face federal charges
in weeks of unrest across US”
Federal prosecutors have announced the arrests of more than
six dozen people on charges ranging from murder to arson to
looting in connection with rioting that grew out of protests
over the death of George Floyd in the past five weeks.
It’s unclear exactly how many more investigations may be
underway.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.foxnews.com/politics/dozens-alleged-rioters-face-federal-charges-unrest
No cops, no problems! Right?


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-25--Tone-Deaf Spokane Police Want To Buy A $300K Social Distance Enforcing Helicopter

With protests across the country demanding an end to police racial abuse and militarization ; a tone-deaf announcement in Spokane , Washington shows how hard it is to change police culture .
Two days ago , a Spokesman Review article revealed that the Spokane County Sherifff ’ s Office wants to use federal money to purchase a $ 300,000 thermal imaging , social distance enforcing helicopter .
As author Rebecca White revealed , the sheriff ’ s office has been using thermal imaging to monitor protesters for a decade .
A look at the Spokane Regional Air Support Unit website @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helicopters known as “ Air-1 ” for public surveillance .
( To find out more about the U.S. Army Bell-OH58 “ Kiowa Warrior ” attack helicopter click here . )
To illustrate just how tone-deaf the Spokane Sheriff ’ s Department is , their website acknowledges using high-powered/thermal imaging surveillance drones on residents .
Mielke ’ s comment about “ troops on the ground ” and not police officers working the streets , is exactly how this helicopter will be used by law enforcement .
Not one American would ever believe police need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What they would believe is law enforcement using them to surveil and abuse protesters Over the past two weeks we have seen DHS , the CBP and the National Guard use helicopters , airplanes and drones to surveil protesters across the country and then deny it .
Police fed all the protester footage they collected into a digital network run by DHS called the “ Big Pipe.
” Where would the money for the Spokane County Sheriff ‘ s $ 300K social distance monitoring helicopter come from ?
Law enforcement wants some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million in CARES funds of course .
Law enforcement needs $ 7 million to help them social distance As the article explained , Spokane County was the only government in Eastern Washington large enough to receive a direct payment from the U.S Treasury .
Of course , the money has to be used by the end of the year and can only be used for COVID-19 related expenses .
Washington ’ s law enforcement claims they need millions of dollars to help them social distance !
How much of the CARES pie does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those groups are requesting $ 7 million in CARES funding.
” Imagine a country decimated by COVID-19 and wracked by racial profiling and police abuse protests .
Now imagine law enforcement agencies taking money meant to help communities and people badly in need of aid .
This has to be one of the most tone-deaf excuses law enforcement has used to justify spying on the public that I have seen .
Using a pandemic as a smoke screen to purchase a $ 300K surveillance helicopter is just so maddeningly crazy it defies belief @

by mapi
With protests across the country demanding an end to police racial abuse and militarization; a tone-deaf announcement in Spokane, Washington shows how hard it is to change police culture.
Two days ago, a Spokesman Review article revealed that the Spokane County Sherifff’s Office wants to use federal money to purchase a $300,000 thermal imaging, social distance enforcing helicopter.
“The Spokane County Sheriff’s Office has asked for $300,000 in federal COVID-19 aid funding for a helicopter thermal scanner, which it says could help with social distancing, responding to protests and reducing manpower needed when policing the county.”
As author Rebecca White revealed, the sheriff’s office has been using thermal imaging to monitor protesters for a decade. A look at the Spokane Regional Air Support Unit website reveals how they use three government surplus helicopters known as “Air-1” for public surveillance. (To find out more about the U.S. Army Bell-OH58 “Kiowa Warrior” attack helicopter click here.)
“The Spokane Regional Air Support Unit has provided valuable search and rescue, fugitive searching, fire suppression, surveillance, homeland security critical infrastructure checks, natural disaster damage assessment, and patrol services to the Inland Northwest.
To illustrate just how tone-deaf the Spokane Sheriff’s Department is, their website acknowledges using high-powered/thermal imaging surveillance drones on residents.
“In 2018, the Spokane Regional Air Support Unit created a UAS (unmanned aerial system) program. Currently the unit possesses a DJI Matrice 210 and a DJI Inspire 1 Pro. The Matrice has the capability of carrying two camera systems working independently or together, which allows it to utilize a 20 megapixel, 4K daytime camera as well as a thermal camera.”
In the Spokesman, Spokane County’s chief administrative officer Todd Mielke’s comment screams police militarization.
“As we have experienced staff shortages and as we tried to be careful about social distancing with our troops on the ground, the air support unit is able to give us more technology to evaluate situations with fewer people,” Mielke said.
Mielke’s comment about “troops on the ground” and not police officers working the streets, is exactly how this helicopter will be used by law enforcement. Not one American would ever believe police need surplus Army helicopters to enforce social distancing. What they would believe is law enforcement using them to surveil and abuse protesters
Over the past two weeks we have seen DHS, the CBP and the National Guard use helicopters, airplanes and drones to surveil protesters across the country and then deny it. Police fed all the protester footage they collected into a digital network run by DHS called the “Big Pipe.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Where would the money for the Spokane County Sheriff ‘s $300K social distance monitoring helicopter come from?
Law enforcement wants some of the state’s $90 million in CARES funds of course.
Law enforcement needs $7 million to help them social distance
As the article explained, Spokane County was the only government in Eastern Washington large enough to receive a direct payment from the U.S Treasury. Of course, the money has to be used by the end of the year and can only be used for COVID-19 related expenses.
Washington’s law enforcement claims they need millions of dollars to help them social distance!
“The request for the thermal imaging funds was made during a law and justice presentation to commissioners where Regional Law and Justice Administrator Maggie Yates presented a list of requests from the courts, county attorneys, the jail, sheriff’s office and county clerks office, which say they need technology and additional support so employees can social distance while providing basic services.”
How much of the CARES pie does law enforcement want?
“Altogether, those groups are requesting $7 million in CARES funding.”
Imagine a country decimated by COVID-19 and wracked by racial profiling and police abuse protests. Now imagine law enforcement agencies taking money meant to help communities and people badly in need of aid.
This has to be one of the most tone-deaf excuses law enforcement has used to justify spying on the public that I have seen. Using a pandemic as a smoke screen to purchase a $300K surveillance helicopter is just so maddeningly crazy it defies belief.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-25--Biden In Biggest Abuse Of Power In American History

May 2020 : Joe Biden says he knows “ nothing ” about the Flynn investigation .
Biden Lied About Flynn @ @ @ @ @ Knows Nothing of Investigation into Flynn… Yet Peter Strzok Notes Biden Recommended the Use of @ @ @ @ @ Flynn Rep. Jim Jordan : Obama team kept going after Flynn despite no wrongdoing

May 2020: Joe Biden says he knows “nothing” about the Flynn investigation.
June 2020: Peter Strzok’s notes reveal it was Biden…
May 2020: Joe Biden says he knows “nothing” about the Flynn investigation. June 2020: Peter Strzok’s notes reveal it was BIDEN’s idea to invoke the Logan Act against Flynn. Biden lied! pic.twitter.com/YjMkLqw5fI — Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) June 24, 2020
Biden Lied About Flynn: Tells ABC News He Knows Nothing of Investigation into Flynn… Yet Peter Strzok Notes Biden Recommended the Use of the Logan Act to Pursue Flynn
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Rep. Jim Jordan: Obama team kept going after Flynn despite no wrongdoing
Records of conversations testifying to international corruption


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--WHOA! Trump Tweets Support For AOC in a Senate Run – Here’s Why!

Collin Rugg from Trending Politics reports , On Monday , President Donald Trump shockingly voiced his support for socialist Alexandria @ @ @ @ @ run .
The comment from the President came in a tweet while he was responding @ @ @ @ @ Washington Times which read : “ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pushed to challenge Chuck Schumer in Senate @ @ @ @ @ tweeted , “ Actually , that would be a big improvement – and she would @ @ @

Collin Rugg from Trending Politics reports, On Monday, President Donald Trump shockingly voiced his support for socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a potential Senate run. The comment from the President came in a tweet while he was responding to a headline from the Washington Times which read: “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pushed to challenge Chuck Schumer in Senate primary.” President Trump then tweeted, “Actually, that would be a big improvement – and she would win!”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
trendingpolitics.com/shock-trump-tweets-support-for-ocasio-cortez-in-a-senate-run-here-is-why/


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--Media CAUGHT HIDING Peter Strzok Notes that SEAL Joe Biden, Barack Obama’s Fate!

Nicholas Fondacaro from News Busters reports , In heavily redacted notes released on Wednesday , anti-Trump FBI Agent Peter Strzok @ @ @ @ @ told him and disgraced FBI Director James Comey to do .

Nicholas Fondacaro from News Busters reports, In heavily redacted notes released on Wednesday, anti-Trump FBI Agent Peter Strzok wrote down what Obama had told him and disgraced FBI Director James Comey to do.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/…


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--Business Uncertainty About Sales Goes Haywire

These Charts Show What Mess Businesses Face Going Forward .
I ’ m going to show you a chart based on data that the Atlanta Fed released today .
We ’ ll dissect it in a moment .
The chart would be funny , if it weren ’ t so serious .
At first , just look at the chart superficially .
These results are based on surveys of businesses of a wide variety of sizes , spread across all sectors of the economy ( except agriculture and government ) , in all regions of the US .
They ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of sales , employment , and capital investment over the next 12 months .
And the chart also shows how uncertain the participants are about their own expectations .
So this is about expectations for their own businesses , and about the uncertainty of their own expectations .
For now , just look at the chart without analyzing it : It shows better than just about anything else what mess businesses face going forward : Their world has gone haywire .
The pandemic has hit businesses differently .
Some businesses have reported booms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the lockdowns and other factors , and they have trouble keeping up .
Other businesses are in a state of collapse or have filed for bankruptcy .
And then there ’ s every business in between .
And these results are the averages of the pandemic ’ s winners and losers combined .
Expectations of Growth and the Uncertainty of those Expectations .
There are two factors here in the Atlanta Fed/Chicago Booth/Stanford Survey of Business Uncertainty : These companies ’ expectations ; and their uncertainty about their own expectations .
Expectations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months ( red line in the chart below has been trending down since November 2018 ( high of 128.5 ) .
This was later borne out by the slowing economy .
Those expectations were already low before the pandemic hit in December 2019 ( 86.7 ) , indicating a further slowdown of the economy for 2020 , and remained roughly in that range in January and February .
The collapse of those expectations commenced in March ( 53.6 ) , and carried through April ( 0 ) and May ( -36.6 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ remained terribly low ( -28.9 ) .
Expectations about growth for capital investment ( green line ) and employment ( black line ) over the next 12 months declined in March , April , and May , but didn ’ t collapse .
And both ticked up in June .
Each of the indices captures the direction and magnitude of how these companies expect sales , employment , and capital investment to change over the next 12 months .
The indices have been set with a mean of 100 from January 2015 through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expectations .
But businesses face a wall of uncertainty , and consequently , have become very uncertain about their own expectations – particularly about their expectations of sales growth .
The uncertainty index tracks the gap between each company ’ s “ lowest ” and “ highest ” sales growth scenarios , or when the company assigns a higher probability to their “ lowest ” and “ highest ” case scenarios .
The uncertainty index for sales expectations ( red line in the chart below ) began spiking in March , but unlike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continued to spike in June .
In comparison , the uncertainty about their employment expectations remained relatively low , but nevertheless ticked up in June the highest level in the data series .
Uncertainty about investment remained range-bound : So , plotting on the same chart the businesses ’ expectations of sales growth and their uncertainty about their own expectations of sales growth shows the environment that companies find themselves in .
While expectations of sales growth for this coming year plunged , the businesses are totally uncertain about those expectations , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenarios – a strong recovery in their sales or continued misery in their sales .
What these businesses are saying is this : They took a big hit in sales and in June still expected those sales to remain at low levels for the next 12 months , but they have no visibility over those 12 months , and have no clue how this will turn out , and lack any kind of confidence in their own expectations of where sales might go .
Practically by definition , a business decision maker has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to figure out how to make it happen .
That ’ s part of the job .
But unless visibility increases and certainty about their own expectations increases , it ’ s going to be tough to plan and make long-term decisions with confidence .
From a business point of view , this is a mess .

These Charts Show What Mess Businesses Face Going Forward.
I’m going to show you a chart based on data that the Atlanta Fed released today. We’ll dissect it in a moment. The chart would be funny, if it weren’t so serious. At first, just look at the chart superficially. These results are based on surveys of businesses of a wide variety of sizes, spread across all sectors of the economy (except agriculture and government), in all regions of the US. They’re asked about their own
businesses, in terms of sales, employment, and capital investment over the next 12 months. And the chart also shows how uncertain the participants are about their own expectations.
So this is about expectations for their own businesses, and about the uncertainty of their own expectations. For now, just look at the chart without analyzing it: It shows better than just about anything else what mess businesses face going forward: Their world has gone haywire.
The pandemic has hit businesses differently. Some businesses have reported booms in demand because of the shifts cause by the lockdowns and other factors, and they have trouble keeping up. Other businesses are in a state of collapse or have filed for bankruptcy. And then there’s every business in between. And these results are the averages of the pandemic’s winners and losers combined.
Expectations of Growth and the Uncertainty of those Expectations.
There are two factors here in the Atlanta Fed/Chicago Booth/Stanford Survey of Business Uncertainty: These companies’ expectations; and their uncertainty about their own expectations.
Business expectations.
Expectations of sales growth over the next 12 months (red line in the chart below has been trending down since November 2018 (high of 128.5). This was later borne out by the slowing economy. Those expectations were already low before the pandemic hit in December 2019 (86.7), indicating a further slowdown of the economy for 2020, and remained roughly in that range in January and February.
The collapse of those expectations commenced in March (53.6), and carried through April (0) and May (-36.6). In June, they ticked up but remained terribly low (-28.9).
Expectations about growth for capital investment (green line) and employment (black line) over the next 12 months declined in March, April, and May, but didn’t collapse. And both ticked up in June.
Each of the indices captures the direction and magnitude of how these companies expect sales, employment, and capital investment to change over the next 12 months. The indices have been set with a mean of 100 from January 2015 through December 2018.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Uncertainty about of those expectations.
But businesses face a wall of uncertainty, and consequently, have become very uncertain about their own expectations – particularly about their expectations of sales growth. The uncertainty index tracks the gap between each company’s “lowest” and “highest” sales growth scenarios, or when the company assigns a higher probability to their “lowest” and “highest” case scenarios.
The uncertainty index for sales expectations (red line in the chart below) began spiking in March, but unlike sales expectations, the uncertainty about them continued to spike in June.
In comparison, the uncertainty about their employment expectations remained relatively low, but nevertheless ticked up in June the highest level in the data series. Uncertainty about investment remained range-bound:
So, plotting on the same chart the businesses’ expectations of sales growth and their uncertainty about their own expectations of sales growth shows the environment that companies find themselves in. While expectations of sales growth for this coming year plunged, the businesses are totally uncertain about those expectations, and they assign high probabilities to both extreme scenarios – a strong recovery in their sales or continued misery in their sales.
What these businesses are saying is this: They took a big hit in sales and in June still expected those sales to remain at low levels for the next 12 months, but they have no visibility over those 12 months, and have no clue how this will turn out, and lack any kind of confidence in their own expectations of where sales might go.
Practically by definition, a business decision maker has to expect sales growth, and has to figure out how to make it happen. That’s part of the job.
But unless visibility increases and certainty about their own expectations increases, it’s going to be tough to plan and make long-term decisions with confidence. From a business point of view, this is a mess.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--“V-Shaped” Recovery Not Now: It Gets Worse, 30.55 Million on Unemployment. Week 14 of U.S. Labor Mar

“V-Shaped” Recovery Not Now: It Gets Worse, 30.55 Million on Unemployment. Week 14 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse

Had a setback .
Over 11 million gig workers on unemployment insurance .
But four states , including Florida , still can ’ t process federal PUA claims .
This unemployment crisis is shape-shifting , and some states are still trying to catch up with the torrent of unemployment claims , and some states still haven ’ t figured out how to process unemployment claims under federal programs , including Florida .
And so , after three weeks of improving , the data tracking the unemployment crisis got worse .
The total number of people who continued to receive unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under all state and federal unemployment insurance programs combined , including gig workers , ( not seasonally adjusted ) , according to Labor Department data this morning .
This is up by 1.3 million people from the prior week ( 29.26 million ) , and the second-highest ever , just below the record during the week ended May 23 .
V-shaped recovery not now : Even while workers in restaurants , bars , retail stores , hotels , hair salons , etc .
are getting called back to work , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Layoffs at small companies happen quietly , and we rarely see them in the news .
But layoffs at big companies make the news , such as Macy ’ s announcement today that it will lay off 3,900 staff in corporate and management areas , even as it ’ s bringing back store employees .
This is one of the ways in which the unemployment crisis is shape-shifting .
Not seasonally adjusted , under state programs were processed in the week ended June 20 , up from 1.433 million initial claims a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who filed their initial unemployment claims that week .
While a fraction of the 6-million range in late March , it is still more than twice the magnitude of the spikes during the prior unemployment crises in 1982 and 2009 .
The number of people who continue to claim unemployment benefits after having filed their initial claim under state programs at least a week earlier are considered the “ insured unemployed.
” These “ continued claims ” under state programs in the current week ( rom 18.65 million in the prior week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under state programs shows that more people who ’ d received state unemployment benefits were called back to work than people were newly laid off .
Under Pandemic Unemployment Assistance ( PUA ) , which covers gig workers , were processed by 46 states in the week ending June 20 .
Four states still have not figured out how to process these federal claims – down from six states last week .
Eventually , they will figure it out , which will boost PUA claims .
These four states are : In total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week under the PUA program , up by 1.76 million from 9.374 million a week earlier .
Gig workers now account for 36 % of total state and federal unemployment rolls .
Under Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation ( PEUC ) , which covers people who have exhausted all rights to regular state and federal unemployment compensation programs , total continued claims fell to 851,983 .
But 14 states have not yet processed any claims under the PEUC program , including , Florida .
Other federal unemployment programs include those that cover federal employees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Discharged Veterans ( 12,483 continued claims ) .
I switched to reporting only not-seasonally adjusted data for unemployment claims weeks ago for three reasons : • Seasonal adjustments were not designed for a crisis of this magnitude , and the results went haywire , with far larger unemployment claims in March and April than realistic .
• The Labor Department revises seasonally adjusted data heavily the following week , and what you reported the prior week is then wrong .
Not-seasonally adjusted data is not revised the following week .
• The Labor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under federal programs ( PUA , PEUC , etc. )
.
To add them to state claims , all data must be “ not seasonally adjusted.
” What does all this mean ?
Despite the deterioration in “ continued claims ” under state and federal programs , I ’ m still fairly confident that in , the unemployment crisis bottomed out in May .
But there are some complicating issues and shifts… .
Seasonal factors .
A small part of the damage we saw today was due to seasonal factors – meaning they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every year during this week in June – according to the Labor Department .
Based on seasonal factors , the Labor Department “ expected ” an increase in initial claims of 53,913 from the prior week .
The actual increase was 24,346 claims .
So in the DOL ’ s theory , and rounded as it does , this week ’ s initial state claims showed a seasonally adjusted “ 28,000 ” improvement over the prior week .
Be that as it may .
The shape-shifting crisis : Retail and restaurant employees , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called back while corporate jobs are disappearing .
This trend will continue .
Big companies , including airlines , have already announced layoffs for the coming months .
States and municipalities are slow in laying off people , but the process has started .
Budgets are in terrible shape , and everyone is counting on a federal bailout .
But layoffs or shortened work hours , or partial furloughs ( such as four days a month ) are now being worked on around the country .
Some of them have already happened .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beyond the official Data Chaos : Now there are 30.55 million people officially getting paid unemployment insurance , and they remained unemployed , and they ’ re looking for a job , according to the DOL today .
There are many people who are eligible for unemployment insurance whose claims have not yet been processed , including by the four states that have not yet processed any PUA claims and the 14 states that have not yet processed any PEUC claims .
So the total should be well over 30.55 million people .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ all programs , the total on the unemployment rolls might be over 31 million .
This would amount to over 19.6 % of the labor force .
In other words , the unemployment rate based on those on those receiving state or federal UI would be 19.6 % .
In addition , there are people who lost their work who are not eligible for any unemployment benefits .
And when they ’ re added to the total unemployed , the unemployment rate goes over 20 % .
This is far higher than the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for May ( 13.3 % without error , and over 16 % with error ) .
The BLS has simply fallen off the deep end with its unemployment reporting .

Had a setback. Over 11 million gig workers on unemployment insurance. But four states, including Florida, still can’t process federal PUA claims.
This unemployment crisis is shape-shifting, and some states are still trying to catch up with the torrent of unemployment claims, and some states still haven’t figured out how to process unemployment claims under federal programs, including Florida. And so, after three weeks of improving, the data tracking the unemployment crisis got worse.
The total number of people who continued to receive unemployment compensation in the week ended June 20 under all state and federal unemployment insurance programs combined, including gig workers, rose to 30.55 million people (not seasonally adjusted), according to Labor Department data this morning. This is up by 1.3 million people from the prior week (29.26 million), and the second-highest ever, just below the record during the week ended May 23. V-shaped recovery not now:
Even while workers in restaurants, bars, retail stores, hotels, hair salons, etc. are getting called back to work, it’s corporate jobs that are getting axed now. Layoffs at small companies happen quietly, and we rarely see them in the news. But layoffs at big companies make the news, such as Macy’s announcement today that it will lay off 3,900 staff in corporate and management areas, even as it’s bringing back store employees. This is one of the ways in which the unemployment crisis is shape-shifting.
Torrent of new state unemployment claims continues.
Not seasonally adjusted, 1.457 million initial claims under state programs were processed in the week ended June 20, up from 1.433 million initial claims a week ago. These are newly laid-off people who filed their initial unemployment claims that week. While a fraction of the 6-million range in late March, it is still more than twice the magnitude of the spikes during the prior unemployment crises in 1982 and 2009.
The number of people who continue to claim unemployment benefits after having filed their initial claim under state programs at least a week earlier are considered the “insured unemployed.” These “continued claims” under state programs fell to 17.92 million in the current week (rom 18.65 million in the prior week).
This decline in continued claims under state programs shows that more people who’d received state unemployment benefits were called back to work than people were newly laid off.
Federal programs: continued unemployment soars.
Under Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which covers gig workers, 728,120 initial claims were processed by 46 states in the week ending June 20.
Four states still have not figured out how to process these federal claims – down from six states last week. Eventually, they will figure it out, which will boost PUA claims. These four states are:
Florida
Georgia
New Hampshire
West Virginia.
In total, 11.046 million gig workers continue to receive unemployment compensation for at least one week under the PUA program, up by 1.76 million from 9.374 million a week earlier. Gig workers now account for 36% of total state and federal unemployment rolls.
Under Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which covers people who have exhausted all rights to regular state and federal unemployment compensation programs, total continued claims fell to 851,983.
But 14 states have not yet processed any claims under the PEUC program, including, Florida.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Other federal unemployment programs include those that cover federal employees (15,339 continued claims) and Newly Discharged Veterans (12,483 continued claims).
Why I use “not seasonally adjusted” data?
I switched to reporting only not-seasonally adjusted data for unemployment claims weeks ago for three reasons:
Seasonal adjustments were not designed for a crisis of this magnitude, and the results went haywire, with far larger unemployment claims in March and April than realistic.
The Labor Department revises seasonally adjusted data heavily the following week, and what you reported the prior week is then wrong. Not-seasonally adjusted data is not revised the following week.
The Labor Department does not seasonally adjust unemployment claims under federal programs (PUA, PEUC, etc.). To add them to state claims, all data must be “not seasonally adjusted.”
What does all this mean?
Despite the deterioration in “continued claims” under state and federal programs, I’m still fairly confident that in sheer numbers of UI claims , the unemployment crisis bottomed out in May. But there are some complicating issues and shifts….
Seasonal factors. A small part of the damage we saw today was due to seasonal factors – meaning they’re real layoffs but they happen every year during this week in June – according to the Labor Department. Based on seasonal factors, the Labor Department “expected” an increase in initial claims of 53,913 from the prior week. The actual increase was 24,346 claims. So in the DOL’s theory, and rounded as it does, this week’s initial state claims showed a seasonally adjusted “28,000” improvement over the prior week. Be that as it may.
The shape-shifting crisis: Retail and restaurant employees, and some hotel employees, are getting called back while corporate jobs are disappearing. This trend will continue. Big companies, including airlines, have already announced layoffs for the coming months.
States and municipalities are slow in laying off people, but the process has started. Budgets are in terrible shape, and everyone is counting on a federal bailout. But layoffs or shortened work hours, or partial furloughs (such as four days a month) are now being worked on around the country. Some of them have already happened. Many of them are well-paid jobs.
Beyond the official Data Chaos: Now there are 30.55 million people officially getting paid unemployment insurance, and they remained unemployed, and they’re looking for a job, according to the DOL today.
There are many people who are eligible for unemployment insurance whose claims have not yet been processed, including by the four states that have not yet processed any PUA claims and the 14 states that have not yet processed any PEUC claims. So the total should be well over 30.55 million people.
If all claims had been processed under all programs, the total on the unemployment rolls might be over 31 million. This would amount to over 19.6% of the labor force. In other words, the unemployment rate based on those on those receiving state or federal UI would be 19.6%.
In addition, there are people who lost their work who are not eligible for any unemployment benefits. And when they’re added to the total unemployed, the unemployment rate goes over 20%.
This is far higher than the nonsense the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported for May (13.3% without error, and over 16% with error). The BLS has simply fallen off the deep end with its unemployment reporting.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--Why Every Person In America Needs To Become A Prepper During The Second Half Of 2020

It has been on my heart to write this article for a few days , but I knew that it wouldn ’ t be easy to write .
2020 has already been one of the worst years in modern U.S. history , and it looks like the next six months are going to be extremely challenging as well .
But even though most Americans are expecting that things will return to “ normal ” in 2021 and beyond , the truth is that the “ perfect storm ” that we are witnessing is only in the very early stages .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , all of the bubbles are bursting , and we are starting to experience the consequences of decades of incredibly foolish decisions .
So even though the remaining months of 2020 will be chaotic , the truth is that things are going to get progressively worse as the years move along .
That means that you should use this period of time to prepare for what is ahead of us , because at some point the window of opportunity to prepare will be closed for good .
COVID-19 should have been a wake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lockdowns were implemented very suddenly once the virus started to spread in the U.S. , and shortages of key items began to happen .
To this day , many retailers are still limiting the number of items that you can buy in certain categories .
Hopefully this has helped people to understand that if you have not stocked up in advance , you may not be able to go out and get what you need when a major crisis strikes .
During the initial stages of this pandemic , a lot of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough supplies .
In the event of a truly historic emergency , you can certainly survive without toilet paper , but if you run out of food you could find yourself in big trouble quite quickly .
The good news is that COVID-19 is not going to kill us all .
About half a million people around the world have died so far , and the final death toll will be a lot lower than the tens of millions that died during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 to 1920 .
But if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic of this nature , what is going to happen when a pandemic that is much more severe hits us ?
Scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a killer plague sweeps across the planet , and the Bible tells us that there will be “ pestilences ” in the last days .
If you find yourself isolated at home for an extended period of time as millions of others are dying from a virus , will you be able to survive on what you have already stored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get to work .
Big economic problems are ahead as well .
So far in 2020 , more than 47 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits , more than 100,000 businesses have permanently closed their doors , and it is being projected that U.S. GDP will decline by 46.6 percent on an annualized bases during the second quarter .
Those are absolutely disastrous numbers , but so far trillions of dollars of emergency government spending has helped to ease the pain .
But those emergency measures were only meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and it is now becoming clear that this new economic depression will be with us for a very long time to come .
Of course deteriorating economic conditions will fuel even more civil unrest .
We have seen rioting , looting , arson and violence in city after city , and much more civil unrest is on the horizon .
If you live in one of our major urban areas , you may want to move while you still can .
Due to a huge surge in demand , property prices in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ areas are already starting to go through the roof .
On top of everything else , food shortages are starting to occur all over the globe .
According to the head of the UN , we are on the verge of seeing “ unimaginable devastation and suffering around the world ” … Giant swarms of locusts the size of major cities are devouring crops in Africa , the Middle East and Asia , African Swine Fever has already killed about one-fourth of all the pigs in the entire world , and crazy weather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production all over the planet .
And now on top of everything else COVID-19 is greatly disrupting food distribution systems all over the world .
We have never seen so many severe threats to global food production occur simultaneously , and the Bible clearly tells us that there will be “ famine ” in the last days .
Meanwhile , a major war could erupt in the Middle East at any moment .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he will begin the process of annexing portions of Judea and Samaria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arab neighbors have promised a very forceful response if that actually happens .
The region has constantly been on the precipice of war for years , and this could potentially be the trigger that finally causes it to happen .
If everything that I have discussed so far wasn ’ t enough , the planet that we all live on is becoming increasingly unstable .
We have witnessed a number of very alarming earthquakes this week , and a truly catastrophic event could literally happen at any moment .
As my regular readers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about seismic activity on the west coast and about the potential for a historic earthquake along the New Madrid fault zone .
But even considering everything that I just shared with you , there is no other time in human history that I would have rather been alive than right now .
All of human history has been building up to this point , and we are so fortunate to be living during this moment .
However , it is going to be exceedingly difficult to thrive during the historic events that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preparations for what is coming .
I realize that things may seem very chaotic now , but the truth is that this is your window of opportunity to prepare .
I would take full advantage of that opportunity , because the clock is ticking .

by Michael Snyder
It has been on my heart to write this article for a few days, but I knew that it wouldn’t be easy to write. 2020 has already been one of the worst years in modern U.S. history, and it looks like the next six months are going to be extremely challenging as well. But even though most Americans are expecting that things will return to “normal” in 2021 and beyond, the truth is that the “perfect storm” that we are witnessing is only in the very early stages. All of the old cycles are ending, all of the bubbles are bursting, and we are starting to experience the consequences of decades of incredibly foolish decisions. So even though the remaining months of 2020 will be chaotic, the truth is that things are going to get progressively worse as the years move along. That means that you should use this period of time to prepare for what is ahead of us, because at some point the window of opportunity to prepare will be closed for good.
COVID-19 should have been a wake up call for all of us. Lockdowns were implemented very suddenly once the virus started to spread in the U.S., and shortages of key items began to happen. To this day, many retailers are still limiting the number of items that you can buy in certain categories. Hopefully this has helped people to understand that if you have not stocked up in advance, you may not be able to go out and get what you need when a major crisis strikes.
During the initial stages of this pandemic, a lot of people ended up being stuck at home without enough supplies. In the event of a truly historic emergency, you can certainly survive without toilet paper, but if you run out of food you could find yourself in big trouble quite quickly.
The good news is that COVID-19 is not going to kill us all. About half a million people around the world have died so far, and the final death toll will be a lot lower than the tens of millions that died during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 to 1920.
But if our society was extremely ill-prepared for a pandemic of this nature, what is going to happen when a pandemic that is much more severe hits us?
Scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a killer plague sweeps across the planet, and the Bible tells us that there will be “pestilences” in the last days. If you find yourself isolated at home for an extended period of time as millions of others are dying from a virus, will you be able to survive on what you have already stored up?
If not, you need to get to work.
Big economic problems are ahead as well. So far in 2020, more than 47 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, more than 100,000 businesses have permanently closed their doors, and it is being projected that U.S. GDP will decline by 46.6 percent on an annualized bases during the second quarter. Those are absolutely disastrous numbers, but so far trillions of dollars of emergency government spending has helped to ease the pain.
But those emergency measures were only meant to get us through a few months, and it is now becoming clear that this new economic depression will be with us for a very long time to come.
Of course deteriorating economic conditions will fuel even more civil unrest. We have seen rioting, looting, arson and violence in city after city, and much more civil unrest is on the horizon.
If you live in one of our major urban areas, you may want to move while you still can. Due to a huge surge in demand, property prices in the most desirable small towns and rural areas are already starting to go through the roof.
On top of everything else, food shortages are starting to occur all over the globe. According to the head of the UN, we are on the verge of seeing “unimaginable devastation and suffering around the world”…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The U.N. chief on Thursday warned the largest gathering of world leaders since the coronavirus pandemic began that it will cause “unimaginable devastation and suffering around the world,” with historic levels of hunger and famine and up to 1.6 billion people unable to earn a living unless action is taken now.
Giant swarms of locusts the size of major cities are devouring crops in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, African Swine Fever has already killed about one-fourth of all the pigs in the entire world, and crazy weather patterns have been playing havoc with crop production all over the planet.
And now on top of everything else COVID-19 is greatly disrupting food distribution systems all over the world.
We have never seen so many severe threats to global food production occur simultaneously, and the Bible clearly tells us that there will be “famine” in the last days.
Meanwhile, a major war could erupt in the Middle East at any moment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he will begin the process of annexing portions of Judea and Samaria in July, and Israel’s Arab neighbors have promised a very forceful response if that actually happens.
The region has constantly been on the precipice of war for years, and this could potentially be the trigger that finally causes it to happen.
If everything that I have discussed so far wasn’t enough, the planet that we all live on is becoming increasingly unstable. We have witnessed a number of very alarming earthquakes this week, and a truly catastrophic event could literally happen at any moment.
As my regular readers already know, I am particularly concerned about seismic activity on the west coast and about the potential for a historic earthquake along the New Madrid fault zone.
But even considering everything that I just shared with you, there is no other time in human history that I would have rather been alive than right now.
All of human history has been building up to this point, and we are so fortunate to be living during this moment.
However, it is going to be exceedingly difficult to thrive during the historic events that are ahead if you have not made any preparations for what is coming.
I realize that things may seem very chaotic now, but the truth is that this is your window of opportunity to prepare.
I would take full advantage of that opportunity, because the clock is ticking.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--Any Hope For A “V-Shaped Recovery” Has Been Completely Crushed

We were supposed to be well into a “ recovery ” by now , but instead more bad economic news just keeps pouring in .
In fact , the numbers that I am going to share with you in this article are absolutely eye-popping .
Initially , many of the economic optimists had been trying to convince us that we would experience a “ short , sharp recession ” followed by a “ V-shaped recovery ” .
Well , at this point it has become quite clear that we can forget all about that scenario .
The mainstream media is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depression ” to describe what is happening to the U.S. economy , and the raw numbers definitely support the use of that label .
For example , the Atlanta Fed ’ s GDPNow model is now projecting that U.S. GDP will decline by 46.6 percent on an annualized basis during the second quarter of 2020… The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth ( seasonally adjusted annual rate ) in the second quarter of 2020 is -46.6 percent on June 25 , down from -45.5 percent on June 17 .
After this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Census Bureau , the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , and the National Association of Realtors , a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth from -25.9 percent to -35.9 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of real business fixed investment growth from -31.1 percent to -28.2 percent , while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.30 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points .
If that figure is anywhere close to accurate , this quarter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic quarter that we have ever seen in all of U.S. history up to the point .
Meanwhile , the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits each week continues to surprise most analysts… As I keep reminding my readers , the all-time record for a single week prior to this year was just 695,000 , and that record had stood since 1982 .
But now we have more than doubled that old record for 14 weeks in a row .
Just think about that .
After laying off tens of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that companies would be running out of people to fire , but we continue to see vast hordes of Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits each week .
Overall , more than 47 million Americans have now filed a claim for unemployment benefits since this pandemic began .
If this isn ’ t an “ economic depression ” , then how bad would things have to get for us to be in one ?
Of course Congress certainly didn ’ t help matters by giving out such generous unemployment bonuses .
Millions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more money than they did while they were actually working , and this is discouraging many from returning to work .
But that will change very abruptly in just a few weeks… Starting around the beginning of August , all of a sudden a whole lot of people will be very interested in finding new jobs , but there won ’ t be many jobs available .
Thousands upon thousands of businesses have already shut down permanently , and more are closing their doors with each passing day .
This new economic downturn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Just consider the following numbers from the Wall Street Journal… This isn ’ t what a “ recovery ” looks like .
And it isn ’ t just the private sector that will be shedding jobs like crazy in the months ahead .
As tax revenues collapse , state and local governments all over the nation will be forced to let workers go .
In fact , it is being projected that more than 5 million of them will be laid off… Those are not jobs that have already been lost .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t shown up in the numbers yet .
And those job losses will be particularly painful , because government jobs tend to pay higher than average wages and they tend to come with better than average benefits .
As the job loss tsunami continues to roll on , the number of Americans forced to move back home with their parents or grandparents will continue to soar .
Of course what we have been witnessing already is deeply alarming… One domino after another is tumbling , and obviously economic conditions are not going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previously .
But this wasn ’ t supposed to happen .
Once the coronavirus lockdowns ended , we were told that the U.S. economy was supposed to snap back very rapidly .
Unfortunately , the truth is that our economic pain is just beginning .
We have entered an extended economic downturn , and our society is not equipped to handle such a downturn at all .
As I have warned so many times , what we are facing is going to make the last recession look like a Sunday picnic , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that some sort of a “ recovery ” is still on the horizon .

by Michael Snyder
We were supposed to be well into a “recovery” by now, but instead more bad economic news just keeps pouring in. In fact, the numbers that I am going to share with you in this article are absolutely eye-popping. Initially, many of the economic optimists had been trying to convince us that we would experience a “short, sharp recession” followed by a “V-shaped recovery”. Well, at this point it has become quite clear that we can forget all about that scenario. The mainstream media is increasingly starting to use the word “depression” to describe what is happening to the U.S. economy, and the raw numbers definitely support the use of that label. For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now projecting that U.S. GDP will decline by 46.6 percent on an annualized basis during the second quarter of 2020…
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -46.6 percent on June 25, down from -45.5 percent on June 17. After this week’s data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth from -25.9 percent to -35.9 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of real business fixed investment growth from -31.1 percent to -28.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.30 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points.
If that figure is anywhere close to accurate, this quarter will be remembered as the most disastrous economic quarter that we have ever seen in all of U.S. history up to the point.
Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits each week continues to surprise most analysts…
Jobless claims totaled 1.48 million last week as unemployment related to the coronavirus pandemic remained stubbornly high, though those receiving benefits fell below 20 million for the first time in two months, the government reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 1.35 million claims.
As I keep reminding my readers, the all-time record for a single week prior to this year was just 695,000, and that record had stood since 1982.
But now we have more than doubled that old record for 14 weeks in a row.
Just think about that. After laying off tens of millions of workers, you would think that companies would be running out of people to fire, but we continue to see vast hordes of Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits each week.
Overall, more than 47 million Americans have now filed a claim for unemployment benefits since this pandemic began.
If this isn’t an “economic depression”, then how bad would things have to get for us to be in one?
Of course Congress certainly didn’t help matters by giving out such generous unemployment bonuses. Millions of unemployed workers are now bringing home more money than they did while they were actually working, and this is discouraging many from returning to work.
But that will change very abruptly in just a few weeks…
Many out-of-work Americans counting on receiving an extra $600 a week through the end of July may be surprised to discover that benefit will disappear nearly a week earlier than they expected. The additional $600 in weekly jobless benefits provided by the federal government is officially set to end July 31. But states will pay it only through the week ending July 25 or July 26, a significant blow to unemployed workers counting on that money to bolster state benefits that average just $370 a week.
Starting around the beginning of August, all of a sudden a whole lot of people will be very interested in finding new jobs, but there won’t be many jobs available.
Thousands upon thousands of businesses have already shut down permanently, and more are closing their doors with each passing day.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This new economic downturn has been particularly brutal for small businesses. Just consider the following numbers from the Wall Street Journal…
Roughly 140,000 Yelp-listed businesses that had closed since March 1 remained closed on June 15. A large minority of that set, 41%, has shut for good, according to Yelp. The figures have improved by about 20% compared with April data, when 175,000 businesses were closed. But the large share of persistent closures, which were spread nationwide, showed the pandemic’s stubborn hindrance to life as normal even as all 50 states have taken steps to reopen.
This isn’t what a “recovery” looks like.
And it isn’t just the private sector that will be shedding jobs like crazy in the months ahead. As tax revenues collapse, state and local governments all over the nation will be forced to let workers go. In fact, it is being projected that more than 5 million of them will be laid off…
Right now, sales taxes, real-estate-transfer taxes, income taxes, fines and fees—they are all collapsing, leaving local governments with a budget gap expected to total $1 trillion next year. Without help from Washington, this will necessarily mean massive service cuts and job losses: namely, an estimated 5.3 million job losses.
Those are not jobs that have already been lost.
Those are future job losses that haven’t shown up in the numbers yet.
And those job losses will be particularly painful, because government jobs tend to pay higher than average wages and they tend to come with better than average benefits.
As the job loss tsunami continues to roll on, the number of Americans forced to move back home with their parents or grandparents will continue to soar. Of course what we have been witnessing already is deeply alarming…
A record 32 million American adults were living with their parents or grandparents in April, according to the latest American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase of 9.7 percent over a year ago. The data, analyzed by Zillow researchers, showed that 2.7 million adults moved back home in March and April, and that about 2.2 million of them were aged 18 to 25 — also known as Generation Z.
One domino after another is tumbling, and obviously economic conditions are not going to return to the way they were previously.
But this wasn’t supposed to happen.
Once the coronavirus lockdowns ended, we were told that the U.S. economy was supposed to snap back very rapidly.
Unfortunately, the truth is that our economic pain is just beginning. We have entered an extended economic downturn, and our society is not equipped to handle such a downturn at all.
As I have warned so many times, what we are facing is going to make the last recession look like a Sunday picnic, but most Americans continue to hold out hope that some sort of a “recovery” is still on the horizon.


investmentwatchblog--2020-06-26--Plagued Retail: My View from the Trenches

We ’ ve lost half-dozen retailers — restaurants , clothing , massage… Tenants who in effect said , sue me , I ’ m taking a hike .
And replacement shop tenants are just behind spotted owls on the endangered species list .
By John E. McNellis , Principal at McNellis Partners , for WOLF STREET : “ I have 2 options that are non-negotiable .
I ’ m going bankrupt ( chapter 7 ) .
Covid happened and I can not survive .
I ’ d rather not go through bankruptcy because it ruins my credit , but if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t think twice .
The second option is to let you keep my deposit , and take what I have in the bank which is around 10k .
Again this is non-negotiable .
That is all I freakin have.
” This tenant ’ s sad bankruptcy threat sets the table for examining our retail—supermarket-anchored neighborhood shopping centers—in the Covid-19 era .
Embellishing only slightly , we have two kinds of tenants : those that can ’ t pay and those that don ’ t wish to .
In short , bricks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pincer movement , flanked on one side by Covid-19 itself , and on the other by its cure .
You know this already : The virus separated us , the cure institutionalized that separation , forcing a societal shutdown that has driven us into our deepest recession in perhaps living memory , a recession that seems certain to run several years .
The coronavirus means we will remain wary of one another until there ’ s a vaccine , perhaps longer ; the cure means the majority of Americans will have little to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our retailers ?
Putting aside kids swarming the beach towns , few of us wish to take more risks than necessary .
Driving on a freeway entails an infinitesimal risk , but we do it to get somewhere ; going shopping now involves a minute risk , but we accept it if the shopping is essential .
( As an aside , we had no idea we were in the essential retail business until this year . )
Our essential retailers—supermarkets , drug stores , banks , convenience stores and gas stations—are doing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gas are killing it .
Someone ’ s idea of essential , liquor stores and cigarette shops , are not complaining either .
As evidenced by the poor fellow who wrote the impassioned plea above , our problem is with the small shop tenants in our centers .
Using a broad brush , you can divide small tenants into three principal categories : personal services , food , and the sellers of stuff ( whether hard goods like cellphones or soft like clothing ) .
The winners among these categories are those that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and our pocketbooks ( cheap ) .
Using these two fixed points , navigating retail is fairly straightforward .
Personal services—beauty shops , nail salons , drycleaners , massage parlors , yoga studios and gyms , etc.—win on cheap , but lose on distancing .
Fortunately for some—notably , hair and nails—essential trumps distancing ; these shops will come back swiftly .
Others , like dry-cleaning and massage , are less essential and will take time to regain their pre-Covid levels .
Finally , there ’ s the sweat subcategory : small gyms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , etc .
Absent an amazing vaccine , these tenants may be in serious trouble .
You can ’ t make money at 50 percent maximum capacity and you ’ ll never convince some meaningful percentage of your customers that they ’ ll be safe dodging sweat in a tightly packed room .
Following the distancing/cheap lodestone , food shapes up like this : drive-throughs are golden , traditional take-out ( e.g .
pizza ) is rocking , and those restaurants that can successfully ramp up their take-out should be fine .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Asian and Indian—hold up well on home delivery ; others , particularly those with complicated menus , do not .
The hardest hit in this category will be higher-priced small restaurants , the charming little shoulder-to-shoulder bistros with candlelit decor .
Simply put , they can not afford to run at 50 or 75 percent maximum capacity ; they lose on both distancing and cheap .
By the way , the coronavirus didn ’ t create retail ’ s larger problem—excess capacity—it merely pulled its curtains back .
According to Forbes , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space per capita in the USA while Europe has just 2.5 square feet .
Washington DC has a restaurant for every 103 residents , while San Francisco has one for every 201 residents .
That ’ s a lot of competition .
Because of this , we anticipate losing a number of our restaurants and restructuring rent for others .
But that goes just so far .
The catch is that a successful restaurant only pays its landlord somewhere between 5 and 15 percent of its sales in rent .
This means that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space to a restauranteur , she still couldn ’ t make it if her sales don ’ t approach their pre-Covid levels .
On to stuff .
The sellers of essential stuff like eyeglasses , laptops and cell phones will be fine ; it would take the Ebola virus itself to keep people away from Apple .
But , let ’ s face it , few things are truly essential .
And stuff is where distancing and cheap diverge .
Price hardly matters if the stuff helps you bear distancing , especially if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or , even better , outside .
Best Buy ’ s stock is up 59 percent from its crisis depth ; people are buying electronics to make home confinement tolerable .
And bicycles and camping gear are flying off the shelves .
Back to cheap .
Not that it ever went away—the “ dollar ” stores have been thriving for years—but the selling cheap-stuff-cheap phenomenon will only grow more universal thanks to our surging unemployment levels .
Bringing this home : To date , we ’ ve permanently lost half-dozen retailers , from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who in effect said , sue me , I ’ m taking a hike .
To compound this unpleasantness , it would be fair to say that replacement shop tenants are just behind spotted owls on the endangered species list .
But if there is a safe harbor in retail , it ’ s a supermarket center in a good residential neighborhood .
Without plan or compass , we happened to bob into that harbor years ago .
By John E. McNellis , Principal at McNellis Partners , for WOLF STREET

We’ve lost half-dozen retailers — restaurants, clothing, massage… Tenants who in effect said, sue me, I’m taking a hike. And replacement shop tenants are just behind spotted owls on the endangered species list.
By John E. McNellis, Principal at McNellis Partners, for WOLF STREET:
“I have 2 options that are non-negotiable. I’m going bankrupt (chapter 7). Covid happened and I cannot survive. I’d rather not go through bankruptcy because it ruins my credit, but if I have no choice, I won’t think twice. The second option is to let you keep my deposit, and take what I have in the bank which is around 10k. Again this is non-negotiable. That is all I freakin have.”
This tenant’s sad bankruptcy threat sets the table for examining our retail—supermarket-anchored neighborhood shopping centers—in the Covid-19 era. Embellishing only slightly, we have two kinds of tenants: those that can’t pay and those that don’t wish to.
In short, bricks and mortar retail has been caught in a pincer movement, flanked on one side by Covid-19 itself, and on the other by its cure. You know this already: The virus separated us, the cure institutionalized that separation, forcing a societal shutdown that has driven us into our deepest recession in perhaps living memory, a recession that seems certain to run several years. The coronavirus means we will remain wary of one another until there’s a vaccine, perhaps longer; the cure means the majority of Americans will have little to spend.
What does this portend for our retailers? Putting aside kids swarming the beach towns, few of us wish to take more risks than necessary. Driving on a freeway entails an infinitesimal risk, but we do it to get somewhere; going shopping now involves a minute risk, but we accept it if the shopping is essential. (As an aside, we had no idea we were in the essential retail business until this year.)
Our essential retailers—supermarkets, drug stores, banks, convenience stores and gas stations—are doing fine; in fact, groceries and gas are killing it. Someone’s idea of essential, liquor stores and cigarette shops, are not complaining either.
As evidenced by the poor fellow who wrote the impassioned plea above, our problem is with the small shop tenants in our centers. Using a broad brush, you can divide small tenants into three principal categories: personal services, food, and the sellers of stuff (whether hard goods like cellphones or soft like clothing).
The winners among these categories are those that can address our fears (distancing) and our pocketbooks (cheap). Using these two fixed points, navigating retail is fairly straightforward.
Personal services—beauty shops, nail salons, drycleaners, massage parlors, yoga studios and gyms, etc.—win on cheap, but lose on distancing. Fortunately for some—notably, hair and nails—essential trumps distancing; these shops will come back swiftly. Others, like dry-cleaning and massage, are less essential and will take time to regain their pre-Covid levels.
Finally, there’s the sweat subcategory: small gyms, bike spinning parlors, yoga studios, etc. Absent an amazing vaccine, these tenants may be in serious trouble. You can’t make money at 50 percent maximum capacity and you’ll never convince some meaningful percentage of your customers that they’ll be safe dodging sweat in a tightly packed room.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Following the distancing/cheap lodestone, food shapes up like this: drive-throughs are golden, traditional take-out (e.g. pizza) is rocking, and those restaurants that can successfully ramp up their take-out should be fine.
You may have noticed that some ethnic foods—like Asian and Indian—hold up well on home delivery; others, particularly those with complicated menus, do not. The hardest hit in this category will be higher-priced small restaurants, the charming little shoulder-to-shoulder bistros with candlelit decor. Simply put, they cannot afford to run at 50 or 75 percent maximum capacity; they lose on both distancing and cheap.
By the way, the coronavirus didn’t create retail’s larger problem—excess capacity—it merely pulled its curtains back. According to Forbes, we have roughly 50 square feet of retail space per capita in the USA while Europe has just 2.5 square feet. Washington DC has a restaurant for every 103 residents, while San Francisco has one for every 201 residents. That’s a lot of competition.
Because of this, we anticipate losing a number of our restaurants and restructuring rent for others. But that goes just so far. The catch is that a successful restaurant only pays its landlord somewhere between 5 and 15 percent of its sales in rent. This means that even if we were to give our space to a restauranteur, she still couldn’t make it if her sales don’t approach their pre-Covid levels.
On to stuff. The sellers of essential stuff like eyeglasses, laptops and cell phones will be fine; it would take the Ebola virus itself to keep people away from Apple. But, let’s face it, few things are truly essential.
And stuff is where distancing and cheap diverge.
Price hardly matters if the stuff helps you bear distancing, especially if it lets you do something fun inside or, even better, outside. Best Buy’s stock is up 59 percent from its crisis depth; people are buying electronics to make home confinement tolerable. And bicycles and camping gear are flying off the shelves.
Back to cheap. Not that it ever went away—the “dollar” stores have been thriving for years—but the selling cheap-stuff-cheap phenomenon will only grow more universal thanks to our surging unemployment levels.
Bringing this home: To date, we’ve permanently lost half-dozen retailers, from restaurants to clothing to massage. Tenants who in effect said, sue me, I’m taking a hike. To compound this unpleasantness, it would be fair to say that replacement shop tenants are just behind spotted owls on the endangered species list. But if there is a safe harbor in retail, it’s a supermarket center in a good residential neighborhood. Without plan or compass, we happened to bob into that harbor years ago. By John E. McNellis, Principal at McNellis Partners, for WOLF STREET