investmentwatchblog--2020-03-14--Historic Volatility Tells Me This Stock Market is in the Middle of an Equally Historic Crash

A gigantic spike at the very end after two of the craziest trading days I ’ ve seen .
Here ’ s how my trades went .
But that ’ s it for me .
I ’ m staying out of this market , it ’ s just too crazy .
Holy moly , that was fast and whiplash inducing .
Today , the S & P 500 exploded higher by 9.3 % to 2,711 , nearly erasing yesterday ’ s 9.5 % plunge , which had been the steepest plunge since the 22.6 % DOW collapse on Black Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ steepest in history .
Today ’ s action was a classic bear-market rally .
Even I could see it coming after yesterday ’ s plunge .
“ That was fast , too fast , ” I mused yesterday , as the S & P 500 Index was going to heck in a straight line .
But that is simply not possible , according to our proven-beyond-a-scintilla-of-doubt and utterly indisputable WOLF STREET beer-mug dictum : “ Nothing goes to heck in a straight line.
” Over the five days through today , the S @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4.9 % and 9.5 % a day , with two moves over 9 % , one move of 7.6 % and two moves of 4.9 % : This pattern of five trading days in a row with moves of over 4.9 % hasn ’ t occurred in the data going back to at least 2008 .
In fact , there haven ’ t even been five days in a row of 2 % -plus moves .
In fact , there haven ’ t even been days in a row of 2 % -plus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the Financial Crisis .
This is how crazy and record-breaking whiplash-inducing this market is .
But these moves are not surprising , according to our beer-mug dictum : “ Nothing goes to heck in a straight line.
” And just when you think the beer mugs are wrong , the market snaps back violently and proves them right .
During the Financial Crisis , as stocks were crashing , the violent one-day-wonder-bounces were a sight to behold , with several exceeding 10 % — in the middle of a crash !
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now with algo trading being dominant , and with stock markets being equipped with “ circuit breakers ” that are supposed to prevent that kind of bottom-fell-out-event that we saw in 1987 ( -22.6 % on Black Monday ) .
I consider today ’ s event a bear-market bounce that confirmed that we ’ re in the middle of possibly a historic crash , given the already historic volatility , the historic level of stock-market overvaluation in February , and the challenges facing the economy and businesses , of which we ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today ’ s bounce was not a good sign in my book .
And one more thing , of today ’ s jump came in the last 30 minutes of breathlessly frenetic and chaotic trading .
It was completely nuts minutes before the close , with stock prices on my screen jumping all over the place .
After today ’ s violent bounce , the S & P 500 has now dropped 20 % over the past 17 trading days and is back where it had first been in January 2018 .
Like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Plunge Protection Team ” required – I reacted in two ways to the historic plunge shortly before the close yesterday : One I covered my short position that I ’ d taken out on December 30 ; and two I bought , as I said , “ some of the worst beaten-down crap for a short-term trade that I hope to unwind over the next few days without getting drawn and quartered.
” And I added , “ Please don ’ t follow me in my footsteps .
Watch the spectacle from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ try to entertain you with the results.
” This afternoon , I unwound all those trades .
So here we go with the results .
When I started selling , the market was up about 4 % .
At the close , it was up 9.3 % .
I missed much of that end of the frenetic spike because I wanted to make sure I got all this crap unloaded before the close .
The worst piece of crap stock in my lineup surged over 70 % in the last few minutes !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything was a win at the time I sold .
It was chaos at the end .
Ten minutes later , they would all have been the hugest winners .
Yup a few minutes made a year ’ s worth of difference today , which is another sign of how nuts this market is .
So these are the results : • Two of “ the most beaten-down airlines ” : +3.2 % and +2.1 % • One “ near-collapse shale-oil driller ” : +23.1 % ( it went on to surge over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , clearly heavily manipulated ) So folks , the way I see it , we ’ re in a historic market .
We ’ d been in a historic run-up through February , amid historic stock market euphoria , reaching historic bubble highs during a period of languid global growth .
And now we ’ re already in a historic crash , in terms of volatility .
We ’ re facing the bit-by-bit shutdown of parts of the economy not just in the US but globally , with governments and central banks lining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , banks , and others .
That ’ s how bad it is – unprecedented really .
And even if all this blows over by summer , the consequences will linger for a long time , and some shifts and changes will become permanent .
As me for me , I ’ m going to stay out of this market for now , because this is just too crazy for me .
And I ’ m going to watch it from a safe distance .

A gigantic spike at the very end after two of the craziest trading days I’ve seen. Here’s how my trades went. But that’s it for me. I’m staying out of this market, it’s just too crazy.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET:
Holy moly, that was fast and whiplash inducing. Today, the S&P 500 exploded higher by 9.3% to 2,711, nearly erasing yesterday’s 9.5% plunge, which had been the steepest plunge since the 22.6% DOW collapse on Black Monday in 1987, which had been the steepest in history. Today’s action was a classic bear-market rally. Even I could see it coming after yesterday’s plunge. “That was fast, too fast,” I mused yesterday, as the S&P 500 Index was going to heck in a straight line. But that is simply not possible, according to our proven-beyond-a-scintilla-of-doubt and utterly indisputable WOLF STREET beer-mug dictum: “Nothing goes to heck in a straight line.”
Over the five days through today, the S&P 500 jumped or plunged between 4.9% and 9.5% a day, with two moves over 9%, one move of 7.6% and two moves of 4.9%:
This pattern of five trading days in a row with moves of over 4.9% hasn’t occurred in the data going back to at least 2008. In fact, there haven’t even been five days in a row of 2%-plus moves. In fact, there haven’t even been four days in a row of 2%-plus moves – and this includes the gyrations during the Financial Crisis. This is how crazy and record-breaking whiplash-inducing this market is.
But these moves are not surprising, according to our beer-mug dictum: “Nothing goes to heck in a straight line.” And just when you think the beer mugs are wrong, the market snaps back violently and proves them right. During the Financial Crisis, as stocks were crashing, the violent one-day-wonder-bounces were a sight to behold, with several exceeding 10% — in the middle of a crash!
This is typical of most crashes, especially now with algo trading being dominant, and with stock markets being equipped with “circuit breakers” that are supposed to prevent that kind of bottom-fell-out-event that we saw in 1987 (-22.6% on Black Monday).
I consider today’s event a bear-market bounce that confirmed that we’re in the middle of possibly a historic crash, given the already historic volatility, the historic level of stock-market overvaluation in February, and the challenges facing the economy and businesses, of which we’ve only seen the first signs. So today’s bounce was not a good sign in my book.
And one more thing, over half of today’s jump came in the last 30 minutes of breathlessly frenetic and chaotic trading. It was completely nuts minutes before the close, with stock prices on my screen jumping all over the place.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
After today’s violent bounce, the S&P 500 has now dropped 20% over the past 17 trading days and is back where it had first been in January 2018.
Like many human and algo dip-buyers – no “Plunge Protection Team” required – I reacted in two ways to the historic plunge shortly before the close yesterday: One I covered my short position that I’d taken out on December 30; and two I bought, as I said, “some of the worst beaten-down crap for a short-term trade that I hope to unwind over the next few days without getting drawn and quartered.”
And I added, “Please don’t follow me in my footsteps. Watch the spectacle from a safe distance. I’ll try to entertain you with the results.” This afternoon, I unwound all those trades. So here we go with the results.
When I started selling, the market was up about 4%. At the close, it was up 9.3%. I missed much of that end of the frenetic spike because I wanted to make sure I got all this crap unloaded before the close. The worst piece of crap stock in my lineup surged over 70% in the last few minutes! And this reeked of manipulation.
Not everything was a win at the time I sold. It was chaos at the end. Ten minutes later, they would all have been the hugest winners. Yup a few minutes made a year’s worth of difference today, which is another sign of how nuts this market is. So these are the results:
Two of “the most beaten-down airlines”: +3.2% and +2.1%
Two “abandoned hotel REITs”: +17.9% and +5.1%
One “sunk cruise-ship operator”: +9.3%
One “crushed aircraft maker”: +10.9%
One “near-collapse shale-oil driller”: +23.1% (it went on to surge over 70% in the last few minutes, clearly heavily manipulated)
One “crushed automaker”: +0.4%
One “wrecked rideshare outfit”: -3.7%
One “internet furniture-retail cash-burn machine”: +6.1%
So folks, the way I see it, we’re in a historic market. We’d been in a historic run-up through February, amid historic stock market euphoria, reaching historic bubble highs during a period of languid global growth. And now we’re already in a historic crash, in terms of volatility. We’re facing the bit-by-bit shutdown of parts of the economy not just in the US but globally, with governments and central banks lining up bailout programs for companies, homeowners, banks, and others. That’s how bad it is – unprecedented really.
And even if all this blows over by summer, the consequences will linger for a long time, and some shifts and changes will become permanent.
As me for me, I’m going to stay out of this market for now, because this is just too crazy for me. And I’m going to watch it from a safe distance.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-14--No One Knows How the Coronavirus Will Impact Canadian Real Estate, But Here Are My Thoughts

We live in interesting times .
I have been fielding a lot of questions regarding the market turmoil and what it may mean for the Canadian Real Estate market , particularly Vancouver .
Yes it ’ s true , the S & P/TSX Composite Index fell 12 % on Thursday , the biggest one day drop since May 1940 per Bloomberg .
Surely this will all have serious implications , but what does it mean for our beloved housing ?
The short answer is , I don ’ t know .
Nobody does .
What I can tell you is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m watching very closely and a few possible outcomes worth considering .
First , this is absolutely an economic shock , one that the Bank of Canada is probably ill-prepared for , just like the rest of us .
Canadian households are the most indebted in the G7 .
We chose not to take the medicine in 2008 , and thus , household balance sheets remain bloated today .
The household debt servicing ratio sits at a record high , despite low interest rates .
Further , household savings rates are near 60 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s not a whole lot of cash put aside for a rainy day , households are not well positioned for an economic shock .
This shock will unfortunately result in a hit to incomes , and will bring rise to job layoffs .
Thus , servicing debts becomes increasingly difficult .
Further , this is not something that can be fixed by lowering interest rates .
We have a global pandemic where policy makers are encouraging people to disengage from economic activity .
In other words , avoid restaurants , organized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing that makes society function and drives consumer spending , which accounts for over 65 % of GDP .
Remember , one man ’ s spending is another man ’ s income .
And so , this leaves us with a host of questions to ponder .
How will Canadians service $ 1.56 trillion in mortgage debt , not to mention other debts such as credit lines and credit cards ?
What about tenants who can ’ t pay their rent ?
Perhaps we should look at how other countries are coping .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut a check for HK $ 10,000 to every resident .
In Italy , the Government is working with the banks to get a moratorium on mortgage payments .
In the city of San Jose , they have adopted a moratorium on evictions for residents who can ’ t pay rent because of lost income resulting from the coronavirus outbreak .
These all seem entirely plausible in Canada .
You can debate the moral hazard around it , and whether it ’ s the right or wrong thing to do , however we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of the overall real estate market , I suspect we will see a halt in activity .
Not just a slowdown in sales , but in new listings as well .
You won ’ t see this reflected in the data for several months , mostly because of the lag time for data processing .
Further , while it seems logical prices could drop , if they do , that also won ’ t be reflected in official price metrics for many months .
Due to the emotional nature of real estate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unlike stocks , there is no mark to market on a daily basis .
I ’ m also thinking a lot about new construction projects , which are capital-intensive and often funded using significant amounts of leverage .
Every month sales are delayed , carrying costs add up , putting profit margins under pressure .
Further , closing risks are no doubt something to consider , should pre-sale buyers have a change in their employment status upon completion .
This comes as we are expected to see a record number of new completions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under construction at all time highs .
Units under construction across Metro Vancouver .
Lastly , I am thinking a lot about the private credit market .
We know private mortgage lending has been growing at a rapid pace these past few years .
It ’ s estimated to be about 10 % of new mortgage loans issued .
This increases renewal risks for buyers who , again , might have a change in employment as the loan comes due .
Most of these mortgage are one year terms .
Further , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Investment Corporations halt redemptions on their investors , in order to stem liquidity issues from investors wanting to pull their money from the fund .
Many of these mortgage investment corporations borrow on a line of credit from a bigger bank .
Will these loans be recalled ?
In a best case scenario , we should at least expect an increase in private mortgage rates in order to account for the increased market risks .
As I have said , nobody knows how this will play out .
I have heard from others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estate to act as a “ flight to safety ” and thus it won ’ t be impacted .
I personally don ’ t share that same view .
But perhaps they are proven correct and my concerns fail to materialize .
To be honest , I hope they are right .
Nothing is more destructive than a sharp decline in home prices .
However , I am well aware there are others desperately hoping for this type of event .
Regardless , I will keep you all updated on how the situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Real Estate is to the Canadian economy , irrespective of your views of the current housing market .
Now more than ever , we will need to navigate these waters carefully .
Stay tuned , and stay safe .
By Steve Saretsky .

How will Canadians service $1.56 trillion in mortgage debt plus other debts such as credit cards? What about tenants who can’t pay their rent?
By Steve Saretsky, Vancouver Residential Realtor, Stevesaretsky.com:
We live in interesting times. I have been fielding a lot of questions regarding the market turmoil and what it may mean for the Canadian Real Estate market, particularly Vancouver. Yes it’s true, the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 12% on Thursday, the biggest one day drop since May 1940 per Bloomberg. Surely this will all have serious implications, but what does it mean for our beloved housing?
The short answer is, I don’t know. Nobody does. What I can tell you is there are a few things I’m watching very closely and a few possible outcomes worth considering.
First, this is absolutely an economic shock, one that the Bank of Canada is probably ill-prepared for, just like the rest of us. Canadian households are the most indebted in the G7. We chose not to take the medicine in 2008, and thus, household balance sheets remain bloated today. The household debt servicing ratio sits at a record high, despite low interest rates.
Further, household savings rates are near 60 year lows. In other words, there’s not a whole lot of cash put aside for a rainy day, households are not well positioned for an economic shock.
This shock will unfortunately result in a hit to incomes, and will bring rise to job layoffs. Thus, servicing debts becomes increasingly difficult. Further, this is not something that can be fixed by lowering interest rates. We have a global pandemic where policy makers are encouraging people to disengage from economic activity. In other words, avoid restaurants, organized events, and travel — the very thing that makes society function and drives consumer spending, which accounts for over 65% of GDP. Remember, one man’s spending is another man’s income.
And so, this leaves us with a host of questions to ponder. How will Canadians service $1.56 trillion in mortgage debt, not to mention other debts such as credit lines and credit cards? What about tenants who can’t pay their rent?
Perhaps we should look at how other countries are coping. In Hong Kong, the Government will cut a check for HK$10,000 to every resident. In Italy, the Government is working with the banks to get a moratorium on mortgage payments. In the city of San Jose, they have adopted a moratorium on evictions for residents who can’t pay rent because of lost income resulting from the coronavirus outbreak.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
These all seem entirely plausible in Canada. You can debate the moral hazard around it, and whether it’s the right or wrong thing to do, however we might not have a choice.
In terms of the overall real estate market, I suspect we will see a halt in activity. Not just a slowdown in sales, but in new listings as well. You won’t see this reflected in the data for several months, mostly because of the lag time for data processing. Further, while it seems logical prices could drop, if they do, that also won’t be reflected in official price metrics for many months. Due to the emotional nature of real estate, nobody cuts their price overnight. Unlike stocks, there is no mark to market on a daily basis.
I’m also thinking a lot about new construction projects, which are capital-intensive and often funded using significant amounts of leverage. Every month sales are delayed, carrying costs add up, putting profit margins under pressure. Further, closing risks are no doubt something to consider, should pre-sale buyers have a change in their employment status upon completion.
This comes as we are expected to see a record number of new completions this year with the number of units under construction at all time highs. Units under construction across Metro Vancouver.
Lastly, I am thinking a lot about the private credit market. We know private mortgage lending has been growing at a rapid pace these past few years. It’s estimated to be about 10% of new mortgage loans issued. This increases renewal risks for buyers who, again, might have a change in employment as the loan comes due. Most of these mortgage are one year terms.
Further, I would not be surprised to see Mortgage Investment Corporations halt redemptions on their investors, in order to stem liquidity issues from investors wanting to pull their money from the fund. Many of these mortgage investment corporations borrow on a line of credit from a bigger bank. Will these loans be recalled? In a best case scenario, we should at least expect an increase in private mortgage rates in order to account for the increased market risks.
As I have said, nobody knows how this will play out. I have heard from others in the industry that they expect real estate to act as a “flight to safety” and thus it won’t be impacted. I personally don’t share that same view. But perhaps they are proven correct and my concerns fail to materialize. To be honest, I hope they are right. Nothing is more destructive than a sharp decline in home prices. However, I am well aware there are others desperately hoping for this type of event.
Regardless, I will keep you all updated on how the situation develops. We all know how important Real Estate is to the Canadian economy, irrespective of your views of the current housing market. Now more than ever, we will need to navigate these waters carefully. Stay tuned, and stay safe. By Steve Saretsky.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Here’s some advice: Recession is incoming, so do your best to keep your job

For some of you kids from the Class of 2019 who didn ’ t graduate during the tail end of an economic crisis and found a job almost immediately , here ’ s some advice : Do your damned best to kick ass and keep your job .
Recession from this virus bullshit is going to come , and those who survive recessions best are those who have managed to keep their jobs .
It ’ s easy to be distracted by the markets and dream about being able to earn enough money from options trading to retire at age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening for 99 % of us .
There ’ s a lot of survivorship bias here – only those with outrageous gains and losses are really posting here for the lolz .
I graduated in 2013 and it took me a month to find a job .
It paid $ 35,000 to start .
I almost got fired once from another shitty job because I was lazy and unfocused and the job sucked .
I make $ 81,000 now .
My sister graduated in 2015 and it took her six months to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s in advisory at PwC after working really hard and proving her worth at her first job , which only paid $ 40,000 .
It ’ s easy to goof off at work and be constantly on Reddit and your favorite brokerage website dicking around and not being productive , but you should first and foremost be kicking ass at your job first .
That said , no matter how hard you work , you might still end being laid off due to circumstances outside of your control and the company you work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fat that gets cut off because you were found to be dicking around trading options on company time or unable to keep up with your deliverables .
Kick ass at what you do .
Coding , financial modeling , consulting , accounting , engineering , science , etc .
Keep buying puts .
Keep your heads up .
It ’ s going to be a wild ride .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
@ @ @ @ @ @

by beefcake_123
For some of you kids from the Class of 2019 who didn’t graduate during the tail end of an economic crisis and found a job almost immediately, here’s some advice: Do your damned best to kick ass and keep your job. Recession from this virus bullshit is going to come, and those who survive recessions best are those who have managed to keep their jobs.
It’s easy to be distracted by the markets and dream about being able to earn enough money from options trading to retire at age 23, but that isn’t happening for 99% of us. There’s a lot of survivorship bias here – only those with outrageous gains and losses are really posting here for the lolz.
I graduated in 2013 and it took me a month to find a job. It paid $35,000 to start. I almost got fired once from another shitty job because I was lazy and unfocused and the job sucked. I make $81,000 now. My sister graduated in 2015 and it took her six months to get her first job. Now she’s in advisory at PwC after working really hard and proving her worth at her first job, which only paid $40,000.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
It’s easy to goof off at work and be constantly on Reddit and your favorite brokerage website dicking around and not being productive, but you should first and foremost be kicking ass at your job first. That said, no matter how hard you work, you might still end being laid off due to circumstances outside of your control and the company you work for. But don’t be the fat that gets cut off because you were found to be dicking around trading options on company time or unable to keep up with your deliverables.
Kick ass at what you do. Coding, financial modeling, consulting, accounting, engineering, science, etc. Keep buying puts. Keep your heads up. It’s going to be a wild ride.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Fear is at a MAXIMUM. Stay alert for a major upwards reversal in stocks

VIX 's weekly RSI ( using HIGH $ ) is now at it 's highest level ever – higher than @ @ @ @ @ is at a MAXIMUM .
Stay alert for a major upwards reversal in stocks pic.twitter.com/TNzNXvedrD

VIX's weekly RSI (using HIGH $) is now at it's highest level ever – higher than during the 2008 crash
Fear is at a MAXIMUM. Stay alert for a major upwards reversal in stocks pic.twitter.com/TNzNXvedrD
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) March 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Washington & the Fed are all out of ideas about how to stop Crash2. They will blame the Wuhan virus,

Washington & the Fed are all out of ideas about how to stop Crash2. They will blame the Wuhan virus, but the facts show they’ll be lying

All the signs you need to see are there this afternoon and early evening in the markets .
The dead-cat bounce I predicted Tuesday has ended , and more value has been sliced off the Dow : a fall of 1,600 pts ( 6.4 % ) has been the sentiment reaction to another Fed rate cut and a pathetic stimulus con-trick from the White House .
( New UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled a $ 38 billion coronavirus action package in today ’ s budget… .
nearly five times that floated by Trump for an economy only 14 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plunged around the world , oil tumbled and demand for safe havens spiked higher after the World Health Organisation officially declared the COVID19 virus a pandemic , and the Trump administration remained unable to detail any further stimulus measures .
Central Banks and their satellites have reverted to the familiar self-defence of selling gold to each other in phased waves – the better to mark the price down to $ 1635 today .
But it ’ s all to no avail : the mood has changed out there , and the undercurrent is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the next ten days , that will turn into a stampede ; and as I never tire of saying , there is no such thing as a gradual panic .
The situation will be exacerbated by the fact that algorithmic programs won ’ t know how to react .
“ Uncertainty is going to continue to create a lot of volatility , ” said David Spika , the president of GuideStone Capital Management .
“ We have no idea how to model it , we have no idea what to expect from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ science : I fully expect that , by the third week in March , investors will be piling into every safe haven they can find .
There aren ’ t many on offer – if you cut rates , it only acts as a further stimulus to off-risk ; European equities wiped out a 2.3 % advance sparked by an emergency rate cut in the UK .
If you can ’ t come up with a QE3 on steroids , the gloom gets exponentially darker .
The symptoms of full-on crisis are now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after revealing plans to draw down all of a $ 13.8 billion loan , Goldman Sachs slashed all its forecasts , and openly said the bull market is ending , Oil futures tumbled again today as the US Energy Information Administration said commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels in the week ending March 6 , and Brent crude fell 2.7 % to $ 36.20 a barrel .
It is at this point that everyone needs to get real about COVID19 as a “ cause ” of the coming mayhem : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both here and on Twitter , whoever you might believe responsible for the virus , it is being grasped by the 3 % as a patsy .
‘ Think of COVID19 as Lee Oswald ’ I suggested on social media yesterday .
There is no getting away from it : the UK economy was flatlining long before anyone in the West had even heard of Wuhan .
The British economy contracted in November and stagnated in January , which offset a small boost in activity in December , the Office for National Statistics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a basket case waiting to happen before the virus caused panic there ; and the New York Repo market was a liquidity desert way back in last September before a single virus case had been reported .
Six months before the Chinese Corona variant appeared , France had an officially declared 35 % gap between central government spending and tax receipts .
Covid19 is not a cause , it is a catalyst .
The problem lies in lauding a globally connected financialised mercantile world dependent on a cock pit for the raising of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process works for the few , and gets bailed out by the many .
Left field always catches that system unawares .
And the precepts of neoliberal monopolism – no debt owed to society , just to the shareholders – makes a dangerous situation potentially tragic….as we shall see bigtime in Italy , and to some extent in the US too .
Add to that sorry landscape the madness of mass migration ( whose sole rationale is the reduction of labour costs ) and you have low-grade 3rd world hygiene standards let loose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some , that observation will brand me racist .
Fair enough : but we have empirical reality staring us in the face…..and although the effects of COVID19 have been ridiculously exaggerated , those who cleave to unscientific wish-fulfilment are about to be found out .
Sooner or later – as with Islamic rape gangs – at least a degree of truth will emerge ; namely , that economic ideology , greed and graft allowed COVID19 to kill a lot more people than it should have done .
Whether the populace will ever grasp @ @ @ @ @ @

by John Ward
All the signs you need to see are there this afternoon and early evening in the markets. The dead-cat bounce I predicted Tuesday has ended, and more value has been sliced off the Dow: a fall of 1,600 pts (6.4%) has been the sentiment reaction to another Fed rate cut and a pathetic stimulus con-trick from the White House. (New UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled a $38 billion coronavirus action package in today’s budget…. nearly five times that floated by Trump for an economy only 14% of that in the US).
Stocks plunged around the world, oil tumbled and demand for safe havens spiked higher after the World Health Organisation officially declared the COVID19 virus a pandemic, and the Trump administration remained unable to detail any further stimulus measures.
Central Banks and their satellites have reverted to the familiar self-defence of selling gold to each other in phased waves – the better to mark the price down to $1635 today. But it’s all to no avail: the mood has changed out there, and the undercurrent is to sell stocks. At some point over the next ten days, that will turn into a stampede; and as I never tire of saying, there is no such thing as a gradual panic.
The situation will be exacerbated by the fact that algorithmic programs won’t know how to react. “Uncertainty is going to continue to create a lot of volatility,” said David Spika, the president of GuideStone Capital Management. “We have no idea how to model it, we have no idea what to expect from it.” None of this is rocket science: I fully expect that, by the third week in March, investors will be piling into every safe haven they can find.
There aren’t many on offer – if you cut rates, it only acts as a further stimulus to off-risk; European equities wiped out a 2.3% advance sparked by an emergency rate cut in the UK. If you can’t come up with a QE3 on steroids, the gloom gets exponentially darker. The symptoms of full-on crisis are now undeniable: Boeing shares fell 13% after revealing plans to draw down all of a $13.8 billion loan, Goldman Sachs slashed all its forecasts, and openly said the bull market is ending, Oil futures tumbled again today as the US Energy Information Administration said commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels in the week ending March 6, and Brent crude fell 2.7% to $36.20 a barrel.
It is at this point that everyone needs to get real about COVID19 as a “cause” of the coming mayhem: as I posted earlier in the week both here and on Twitter, whoever you might believe responsible for the virus, it is being grasped by the 3% as a patsy. ‘Think of COVID19 as Lee Oswald’ I suggested on social media yesterday.
There is no getting away from it: the UK economy was flatlining long before anyone in the West had even heard of Wuhan. The British economy contracted in November and stagnated in January, which offset a small boost in activity in December, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.
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Equally, Italy was a basket case waiting to happen before the virus caused panic there; and the New York Repo market was a liquidity desert way back in last September before a single virus case had been reported. Six months before the Chinese Corona variant appeared, France had an officially declared 35% gap between central government spending and tax receipts.
Covid19 is not a cause, it is a catalyst.
The problem lies in lauding a globally connected financialised mercantile world dependent on a cock pit for the raising of capital….in a context where big, blind process works for the few, and gets bailed out by the many.
Left field always catches that system unawares. And the precepts of neoliberal monopolism – no debt owed to society, just to the shareholders – makes a dangerous situation potentially tragic….as we shall see bigtime in Italy, and to some extent in the US too.
Add to that sorry landscape the madness of mass migration (whose sole rationale is the reduction of labour costs) and you have low-grade 3rd world hygiene standards let loose in an already investment-starved infrastructure.
For some, that observation will brand me racist. Fair enough: but we have empirical reality staring us in the face…..and although the effects of COVID19 have been ridiculously exaggerated, those who cleave to unscientific wish-fulfilment are about to be found out.
Sooner or later – as with Islamic rape gangs – at least a degree of truth will emerge; namely, that economic ideology, greed and graft allowed COVID19 to kill a lot more people than it should have done.
Whether the populace will ever grasp that is another matter entirely.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--“To save lives during the Coronavirus pandemic, the Bernie Sanders campaign is suspending door-to-do

“ To save lives during the Coronavirus pandemic , the Bernie Sanders campaign is suspending door-to-door canvassing .
”

“To save lives during the Coronavirus pandemic, the Bernie
Sanders campaign is suspending door-to-door canvassing.”
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h/t dr0id


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--VIDEO: “Police in northeast Spain implement coronavirus lockdown in area with nearly 70,000 resident

VIDEO: “Police in northeast Spain implement coronavirus lockdown in area with nearly 70,000 residents; people are not allowed to leave”

VIDEO : “ Police in northeast Spain implement coronavirus lockdown in area with nearly 70,000 residents ; people can enter @ @ @ @ @ leave ”

VIDEO: “Police in northeast Spain implement coronavirus
lockdown in area with nearly 70,000 residents; people can
enter but are not allowed to leave”
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WATCH: Police in northeast Spain implement coronavirus lockdown in area with nearly 70,000 residents; people can enter but are not allowed to leave pic.twitter.com/dx4qmspmyT — BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) March 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--The market was at 27,960 when chief White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow suggested that people

The market was at 27,960 when chief White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow suggested that people “buy the dip.”

Anyone that listened to Kudlow has lost nearly 25 % since then .

The market was at 27,960 when chief White House economic advisor @larry_kudlow suggested that people “buy the dip.” Anyone who listened has lost 26% in 3 weeks. t.co/ikyJQNRpQG t.co/7sLcBYkkUp — Tim Miller (@Timodc) March 12, 2020
Anyone that listened to Kudlow has lost nearly 25% since then.
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h/t builder


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--TWO CNNs IN ONE!

TWO CNNs IN ONE!

● Shot : Don Lemon Goes Absolutely Insane on John Kasich for Refusing to Bash Trump ’ s Wuhan Virus @ @ @ @ @ Tapper Fears Dem Voters Are ‘ Bunch of Rachel Maddows and Chris Hayess.
’ “ @ @ @ @ @ t call Democratic voters ‘ a bunch of Chris Cuomos and Don Lemons ?
’ @ @ @ @ @ back then ?

● Shot: Don Lemon Goes Absolutely Insane on John Kasich for Refusing to Bash Trump’s Wuhan Virus Address.
—Red State, today.
● Chaser: Tapper Fears Dem Voters Are ‘Bunch of Rachel Maddows and Chris Hayess.’ “Wonder why Tapper didn’t call Democratic voters ‘a bunch of Chris Cuomos and Don Lemons?’”
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—NewsBusters, yesterday.
gee… who was president back then?
h/t ED


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--White House Announces Landmark Executive Order to End Reliance on China for Medical Supplies After C

White House Announces Landmark Executive Order to End Reliance on China for Medical Supplies After China Tries To Cut US Off Of Supply

“ In an article in Xinhua , the state-run media agency that ’ s largely considered the mouthpiece of the @ @ @ @ @ its handling of COVID-19 , a virus that originated in the city of Wuhan and @ @ @ @ @ world , killing nearly 5,000 people and infecting thousands more .
The article also claimed @ @ @ @ @ export controls which would plunge America into “ the mighty sea of coronavirus.
” In @ @ @ @ @ the state-run media agency that ’ s largely considered the mouthpiece of the party , @ @ @ @ @ of COVID-19 , a virus that originated in Wuhan and has spread quickly around the @ @ @ @ @ people and infecting thousands more .
The article also claimed that China could impose pharmaceutical @ @ @ @ @ America into “ the mighty sea of coronavirus.
” China is grooming for war with @ @

“In an article in Xinhua, the state-run media agency that’s largely considered the mouthpiece of the party, Beijing bragged about its handling of COVID-19, a virus that originated in the city of Wuhan and has spread quickly around the world, killing nearly 5,000 people and infecting thousands more. The article also claimed that China could impose pharmaceutical export controls which would plunge America into “the mighty sea of coronavirus.”
www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-deny-americans-coronavirus-drugs
In an article in Xinhua, the state-run media agency that’s largely considered the mouthpiece of the party, Beijing bragged about its handling of COVID-19, a virus that originated in Wuhan and has spread quickly around the world, killing nearly 5,000 people and infecting thousands more. The article also claimed that China could impose pharmaceutical export controls which would plunge America into “the mighty sea of coronavirus.”
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Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-deny-americans-coronavirus-drugs
China is grooming for war with the US…
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Some big institution out there is getting margin called. Dealers are telling me they badly want the

Some big institution out there is getting margin called. Dealers are telling me they badly want the $1T in repos, but can’t take it.

Most important tweet of the day .
Some big institution out there is getting margin called .
The notional amount @ @ @ @ @ there is insane , to say the least .
The `` imbalances '' were on @ @ @ @ @ t.co/0mV2IhBQNx Dealers are telling me they badly want the $ 1T in repos , but @ @ @ @ @ Post-crisis rules , among so many different regulators ( Basel 3 , Fed , OCC @ @ @ @ @ make it nearly impossible for them to take the money .
They are telling the @ @ @ @ @ Fed had no clue .

Most important tweet of the day. Some big institution out there is getting margin called. The notional amount of outstanding derivative exposures out there is insane, to say the least. The "imbalances" were on the buyside all along. t.co/0mV2IhBQNx
Dealers are telling me they badly want the $1T in repos, but can't take it.
Post-crisis rules, among so many different regulators (Basel 3, Fed, OCC, FDIC, etc) make it nearly impossible for them to take the money.
They are telling the Fed their problems. The Fed had no clue.
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Is This Like 2008?

Is This Like 2008?

With the S & P 500 down just under 27 % from the peak in February .
We are at a moment of extreme pessimism .
This was the fastest bear market ever .
The pessimism isn ’ t just based on stock prices though .
We ’ ve seen the President ban travel from Europe for 30 days , the NBA and NHL canceled the rest of the season , and healthcare systems in Iran and Italy get overwhelmed .
It ’ s a lot tougher to invest in markets when people are getting sick around you .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can scoff at the fear in markets .
The fear is justified .
Extreme pessimism is here , although , that doesn ’ t mean stocks can ’ t go lower if more negative news comes out .
The CNN fear and greed index is at 4/100 which is extreme fear .
In the week of March 11th , the AAII investor sentiment survey showed the percentage of bulls fell 9 points to 29.7 % which is below the average of 38 % .
The percentage of bears is more valuable historically .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ which can be a positive for contrarians ) as the percentage of bears rose 11.7 % to 51.3 % which is much above the historical average of 30.5 % .
That ’ s because the percentage of neutral investors is 12.5 % below average .
People are either buying the dip or panicking .
There is little in between .
Sometimes the best thing is to do nothing in the face of wild action .
As you can see from the chart above , the Bloomberg fear greed indicator is actually below where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s amazing because stocks were at record highs just a month ago .
1971 was the last time the 10 year yield had a 14 day RSI as low as the recent trough .
It just recently ended its 13 day decline streak which was a record high .
Wednesday was a disaster for those hiding out in the long bond because the TLT + the S & P 500 had its worst day since December 2002 when the TLT was formulated .
On the 6th , the TLT had its best day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had its worst day ever .
The VIX closed above 40 for the 4th straight day for the first time since March to April 2009 .
The was a 40 % increase in the put to call ratio to 1.02 which signals extreme pessimism .
There have been 7 days ( 8 including Thursday ) where the S & P 500 has fallen 3 % or more this year which is the most since 2009 which had 12 .
We are on pace to beat the peak of 23 in 2008 .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 500 hit above 65 % as all risk assets traded in kind regardless of the fundamentals .
That makes it a potentially great time to be a stock picker with a long term time horizon .
Furthermore , the 21 day rolling correlation of large caps has only been exceeded by August 2011 , the great financial crisis of 2008 , and the 1987 crash .
Credit default swaps on investment grade debt nearly hit the peaks in 2011 and 2016 .
We ’ ll be watching those closely this week .
Moody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 3.6 % .
The high yield default rate could rise to 9.7 % in the worst case scenario .
Blackstone Group encouraged firms impacted by COVID-19 to use their credit lines possibly before they can ’ t .
That ’ s the scariest news of the week .
Recessions happen when companies can ’ t get funding , or when business stops .
With the virus , there could be both .
As you can see from the chart below , the median open price gap in the past 10 trading session @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worst part of the 2008 financial crisis .
Furthermore , the 10 day average move in the last hour of trading in the S & P 500 is 1.3 % which matches the peak in 2011 at 1.3 % .
The peak was 3.6 % in October 2008 and 1.6 % in October 1987 .
Small caps are getting hit very hard in this selloff .
The Russell 2000 ETF closed at the same price it closed at on Christmas Eve 2018 which was the bottom in stocks then .
Furthermore , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the lowest since October 2002 ( IWM vs SPY ) .
Because COVID-19 is becoming a bigger risk to America than China , being domestically focused is now a bad thing .
Credit conditions tightening hurts small firms the most .
That ’ s because these firms are highly indebted and many don ’ t make money .
Specifically , 23 % of firms in the S & P 600 aren ’ t profitable .
As you can see from the chart below , since 2012 the debt to equity ratio of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s near 130 % .
This bear market will provide great opportunities to investors with long-term time horizons because COVID-19 won ’ t do significant damage to the global economy in the long term according to Morningstar .
They have a bull , bear , and base case which imply 2020 GDP growth will be hurt by 0.1 % , 5 % , and 1.25 % .
Their probabilities are 25 % , 15 % , and 60 % .
Morningstar expects US GDP growth to be hurt by 1.5 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UBS expects Q2 GDP growth to be -0.8 % and Credit Suisse expects it to be -0.9 % ; both are obviously recessionary .
The collapse in energy prices will hurt industrial production , but help the consumer .
Morningstar lowered their 2020 China GDP growth rate expectation from 4.7 % to just 2.2 % .
As we mentioned , COVID-19 is a short term negative .
The chart below shows the 1.5 % GDP growth impact in 2020 .
Because of catch up effects , the impact will be positive in 2021 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2023 , GDP growth will catchup to its pre-growth trend .
This bear market has reached extreme pessimism according to most metrics .
We are still at the beginning phases of the outbreak in America .
The hope is these latest actions to curtail the spread work .
That combined with a fiscal stimulus will send stocks soaring .
The extreme fear in markets is leading to a recession being priced in .
Like the 2008 financial crisis , central banks and governments can reduce the financial impact on individuals and businesses , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy will be in serious risk of severe dislocations .
Additionally , human behavior is not linear .
Once the virus stops spreading ( it will stop , we just don ’ t know when ) it doesn ’ t mean economic activity will resume like nothing happened .
With the right time horizon long term investors can benefit from the panic in markets , but that doesn ’ t mean this is the bottom .

by UPFINA
With the S&P 500 down just under 27% from the peak in February. We are at a moment of extreme pessimism. This was the fastest bear market ever. The pessimism isn’t just based on stock prices though. We’ve seen the President ban travel from Europe for 30 days, the NBA and NHL canceled the rest of the season, and healthcare systems in Iran and Italy get overwhelmed. It’s a lot tougher to invest in markets when people are getting sick around you. This isn’t a situation where you can scoff at the fear in markets. The fear is justified.
Extreme pessimism is here, although, that doesn’t mean stocks can’t go lower if more negative news comes out. The CNN fear and greed index is at 4/100 which is extreme fear. In the week of March 11th, the AAII investor sentiment survey showed the percentage of bulls fell 9 points to 29.7% which is below the average of 38%. The percentage of bears is more valuable historically. It shows more of a problem (which can be a positive for contrarians) as the percentage of bears rose 11.7% to 51.3% which is much above the historical average of 30.5%. That’s because the percentage of neutral investors is 12.5% below average. People are either buying the dip or panicking. There is little in between. Sometimes the best thing is to do nothing in the face of wild action.
🌎 The Fear-Greed Indicator of global stocks has now exceeded negative levels seen in 2008 – Bloomberg TV chart pic.twitter.com/ByF95SZzm6 — Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) March 12, 2020
As you can see from the chart above, the Bloomberg fear greed indicator is actually below where it was in 2008. That’s amazing because stocks were at record highs just a month ago. 1971 was the last time the 10 year yield had a 14 day RSI as low as the recent trough. It just recently ended its 13 day decline streak which was a record high. Wednesday was a disaster for those hiding out in the long bond because the TLT + the S&P 500 had its worst day since December 2002 when the TLT was formulated. On the 6th, the TLT had its best day ever and on the 10th, it had its worst day ever.
Unprecedented Levels Are Being Hit
The VIX closed above 40 for the 4th straight day for the first time since March to April 2009. The was a 40% increase in the put to call ratio to 1.02 which signals extreme pessimism. There have been 7 days (8 including Thursday) where the S&P 500 has fallen 3% or more this year which is the most since 2009 which had 12. We are on pace to beat the peak of 23 in 2008. The implied correlation in the S&P 500 hit above 65% as all risk assets traded in kind regardless of the fundamentals. That makes it a potentially great time to be a stock picker with a long term time horizon. Furthermore, the 21 day rolling correlation of large caps has only been exceeded by August 2011, the great financial crisis of 2008, and the 1987 crash.
Credit default swaps on investment grade debt nearly hit the peaks in 2011 and 2016. We’ll be watching those closely this week. Moody’s sees global default rates rising to 3.6%. The high yield default rate could rise to 9.7% in the worst case scenario. Blackstone Group encouraged firms impacted by COVID-19 to use their credit lines possibly before they can’t. That’s the scariest news of the week. Recessions happen when companies can’t get funding, or when business stops. With the virus, there could be both.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As you can see from the chart below, the median open price gap in the past 10 trading session is -2.1% which is below the worst part of the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, the 10 day average move in the last hour of trading in the S&P 500 is 1.3% which matches the peak in 2011 at 1.3%. The peak was 3.6% in October 2008 and 1.6% in October 1987.
If this morning's drop holds anywhere near current levels, the S&P 500 futures median opening gap over the past 10 days is -2.1%. That's worse than any period in history, exceeding the prior record from October 27, 2008. pic.twitter.com/5ReVIFWdBF — SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) March 11, 2020
Small Caps Are Getting Destroyed
Small caps are getting hit very hard in this selloff. The Russell 2000 ETF closed at the same price it closed at on Christmas Eve 2018 which was the bottom in stocks then. Furthermore, the ratio of small caps to large caps is the lowest since October 2002 (IWM vs SPY). Because COVID-19 is becoming a bigger risk to America than China, being domestically focused is now a bad thing. Credit conditions tightening hurts small firms the most. That’s because these firms are highly indebted and many don’t make money. Specifically, 23% of firms in the S&P 600 aren’t profitable. As you can see from the chart below, since 2012 the debt to equity ratio of S&P 500 has skyrocketed. It’s near 130%.
Small-cap leverage was a headwind coming into 2020. These companies need higher revenue, not lower rates. #TooSmallToBail #leverage pic.twitter.com/tneke5hYoU — Michael Kantrowitz, CFA (@MichaelKantro) March 10, 2020
COVID-19 Won’t Do Long Term Damage
This bear market will provide great opportunities to investors with long-term time horizons because COVID-19 won’t do significant damage to the global economy in the long term according to Morningstar. They have a bull, bear, and base case which imply 2020 GDP growth will be hurt by 0.1%, 5%, and 1.25%. Their probabilities are 25%, 15%, and 60%. Morningstar expects US GDP growth to be hurt by 1.5% in 2020 (base case). UBS expects Q2 GDP growth to be -0.8% and Credit Suisse expects it to be -0.9%; both are obviously recessionary. The collapse in energy prices will hurt industrial production, but help the consumer. Morningstar lowered their 2020 China GDP growth rate expectation from 4.7% to just 2.2%.
As we mentioned, COVID-19 is a short term negative. The chart below shows the 1.5% GDP growth impact in 2020. Because of catch up effects, the impact will be positive in 2021, 2022, and 2023. By 2023, GDP growth will catchup to its pre-growth trend.
Conclusion
This bear market has reached extreme pessimism according to most metrics. We are still at the beginning phases of the outbreak in America. The hope is these latest actions to curtail the spread work. That combined with a fiscal stimulus will send stocks soaring. The extreme fear in markets is leading to a recession being priced in. Like the 2008 financial crisis, central banks and governments can reduce the financial impact on individuals and businesses, but until the virus stops spreading, the economy will be in serious risk of severe dislocations. Additionally, human behavior is not linear. Once the virus stops spreading (it will stop, we just don’t know when) it doesn’t mean economic activity will resume like nothing happened. With the right time horizon long term investors can benefit from the panic in markets, but that doesn’t mean this is the bottom.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--As far as the stock market is concerned, the world’s publicly quoted companies are worth no more now

As far as the stock market is concerned , the world ’ s publicly quoted companies are worth no more @ @ @ @ @ than 12 years ago on Halloween 2007 just before the big selloff of the GFC @ @ @ @ @

As far as the stock market is concerned, the world’s publicly quoted companies are worth no more now than they were more than 12 years ago on Halloween 2007 just before the big selloff of the GFC. @johnauthers t.co/D7oCTdEipG pic.twitter.com/vqJ7lFjsrK
— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) March 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Be careful with IRA and 401K rollovers during extreme market volatility

When an IRA or 401K is rolled over to another provider , your investments are typically sold , a check @ @ @ @ @ either to ( a ) You or ( b ) the new institution .
I @ @ @ @ @ right now due to extreme volatility .
Let ’ s say that your old plan @ @ @ @ @ after a 10 % drop .
The check is mailed out in 5 business days @ @ @ @ @ another 3 business days , and forward it to your new institution who processes it @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s 13 business days in which a lot of swings may have taken @ @ @ @ @ being liquidated you may have taken a massive loss .
I generally don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ but with rollovers you are out of the market for a few weeks , it @ @ @ @ @ your funds in the current plan and wait to roll over until the volatility has @ @

by 80sbabymillennial
When an IRA or 401K is rolled over to another provider, your investments are typically sold, a check is issued, and sent either to (a) You or (b) the new institution.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I would caution initiating a rollover right now due to extreme volatility. Let’s say that your old plan is liquidated today, right after a 10% drop. The check is mailed out in 5 business days, you receive it in another 3 business days, and forward it to your new institution who processes it in 5 business days. That’s 13 business days in which a lot of swings may have taken place, and with funds being liquidated you may have taken a massive loss. I generally don’t recommend timing the market, but with rollovers you are out of the market for a few weeks, it may be wise to keep your funds in the current plan and wait to roll over until the volatility has subsided.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Someone finally connects the dots between market disruption & economics of disaster as Treasury Secr

Someone finally connects the dots between market disruption & economics of disaster as Treasury Secretary is working with Pelosi on a pandemic bill for free testing, required sick pay & etc.

Maybe movement from leadership on some of these concerns will help with personal panic that might be showing up in @ @ @ @ @ some relief to investors .
The fact that it ’ s the Treasury Secretary working @ @ @ @ @ do connect what ’ s happening in the market to some need for action on @ @ @ @ @ Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that she and the Trump administration are close to agreement on @ @ @ @ @ reassure anxious Americans by providing sick pay , free testing and other resources , hoping @ @ @ @ @ amid the mounting crisis.
” While this doesn ’ t actually solve the problems of @ @ @ @ @ from relying on social distancing and self-isolation as a pandemic response instead of vigorous tracking @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s at least something concrete that addresses some of the concerns of workers @ @ @ @

by rhetorical_twix
Maybe movement from leadership on some of these concerns will help with personal panic that might be showing up in the markets and might provide some relief to investors. The fact that it’s the Treasury Secretary working with Pelosi demonstrates that they do connect what’s happening in the market to some need for action on pandemic issues.
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“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that she and the Trump administration are close to agreement on a coronavirus aid package to reassure anxious Americans by providing sick pay, free testing and other resources, hoping to calm teetering financial markets amid the mounting crisis.”
www.marketwatch.com/story/pelosi-says-agreement-near-with-white-house-on-virus-aid-2020-03-13?mod=home-page
While this doesn’t actually solve the problems of the economic toll that comes from relying on social distancing and self-isolation as a pandemic response instead of vigorous tracking, treatment and containment, it’s at least something concrete that addresses some of the concerns of workers and their families.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Not Only Did Democrats Vote to Include Abortion Funds in the Stimulus, They Also…

They also voted to not fund extra respirators for the sick .
Senate Democrats also voted against increasing access to @ @ @ @ @ on earth would Democrats do that at the very same time that they are warning @ @ @ @ @ die ?
RUSH : Well , lo and behold , they have done it .
@ @ @ @ @ officially opposing Trump ’ s travel ban .
By the way , don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ Trump did not include the U.K. because they ’ re getting out of the European @ @ @ @ @ , don ’ t you know .
So Democrats oppose travel ban .
A No @ @ @ @ @ by representative Judy Chu , Democrat , California , cosponsored by 219 House Democrats .
@ @ @ @ @ all of Trump ’ s travel restrictions and it will require that Trump only issue @ @ @ @ @ address a compelling government interest .

They also voted to not fund extra respirators for the sick.
Democrats are demonic liars.
Senate Democrats also voted against increasing access to medical respirators. Now why on earth would Democrats do that at the very same time that they are warning that people are going to die?
Democrats Oppose Trump’s EU Travel Ban
RUSH: Well, lo and behold, they have done it. The Democrats have come out officially opposing Trump’s travel ban. By the way, don’t you like the fact that Trump did not include the U.K. because they’re getting out of the European Union — hee-hee-hee-hee — Brexit, don’t you know.
So Democrats oppose travel ban. A No Ban Act has been introduced by representative Judy Chu, Democrat, California, cosponsored by 219 House Democrats. The bill will roll back all of Trump’s travel restrictions and it will require that Trump only issue a restriction when required to address a compelling government interest.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--When Will the US Lockdown Over Covid-19? How Long Will Quarantines Last? Here’s What the Patterns Sh

When Will the US Lockdown Over Covid-19? How Long Will Quarantines Last? Here’s What the Patterns Show Us

Yesterday the World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic ( like we didn ’ t already know this . )
As well , President Trump addressed the nation , closing American borders to all flights from Europe and announcing some ways he intends to help the people of the United States financially .
In unofficial terms , this is sh # t getting real .
Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse – before they get better .
Illness completely aside , this will cause financial problems that many folks will feel for years after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are asking now is , “ When ?
” When will the US begin to see measures being taken to lockdown areas or put people into quarantine ?
What would that lockdown look like ?
How long will quarantines last ?
We can look at how this has gone in other countries to get a general idea of the pattern .
Of course , we ’ re Americans and we do things differently .
Our geography is quite different as is our population density .
So this isn ’ t an exact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patterns to predict ( not in a crystal ball kind of way but an analysis kind of way ) what could happen here .
Here ’ s how things have gone in Italy and China .
We can still learn a lot from observing the patterns of the breakdowns there .
The United States is probably closer culturally to Italy and other European countries than we are to China .
For example , Italy is far more concerned about human rights than China .
However , geographically , we ’ re a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Italy .
China has 9.3 million square kilometers and the United States has 9.1 million square kilometers .
Meanwhile , Italy is 301,340 square kilometers .
Both of these things play a role in the spread of the virus and containment efforts .
What about China ?
Well , I don ’ t trust the numbers and information coming out of China to include them in this model by very much , but note that the situation of which we ’ re aware has been going on for about 8 weeks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were heard of when Dr. Li Wenliang , who later died of the coronavirus , blew the whistle on China on December 30 , 2019 .
To our knowledge , the quarantines began in Wuhan on January 22 .
So from the first patients to the initial lockdowns was 23 days .
From the date the first noted illness became public to now has been 73 days .
From the date of the first quarantines in Wuhan until now has been 51 days .
Although the quarantine has been loosened , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The country may or may not be getting back to normal , depending on who you believe .
If they are not getting back to normal , then this 7-week window is inaccurate .
On about the 20th of February , three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy .
Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately , their quick actions weren ’ t enough .
What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first patients to local lockdowns was one day .
From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days .
In just 22 days , the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments , stopped all non-essential movement , and ceased business .
Their medical system is so overwhelmed that they are forced to choose who to save and many people over 65 are not even assessed as the hospitals reserve their resources and space for those who have a higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month ago , everything was normal in Italy .
Tourists were making wishes at Trevi Fountain , people were enjoying sunny days having coffee with friends on a cafe patio , and businesses were thriving .
As of yesterday , Italy had 12,462 cases of Covid-19 and the death toll leapt from 196 to 827 .
In a day .
Everything has been ordered closed except food stores and pharmacies .
This is how fast things can go .
And Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 days of quarantine , then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak .
Countries across Europe are slamming their borders shut in an effort to contain the virus .
Whether they ’ ve acted soon enough remains to be seen .
Where is the United States in all this ?
The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the United States on January 22nd in Snohomish County , Washington .
Incidentally , that was the same day the city of Wuhan went into lockdown .
We have already had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine after traveling , but the quarantining of large groups of people has not yet occurred in the US .
YET .
We are on day 50 since the initial case was diagnosed in the United States .
However , the first case of community spread was on February 26 , and this may be a more important marker than the first case in a country the size of ours .
“ Community spread ” means the illness was not contracted through traceable means , like a family member with the virus or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was running rampant .
So if we ’ re counting from the first day of community spread , the US is on day 15 .
If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries , that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here .
That would put us at March 19th or 20th .
We may see some early lockdowns of cities or regions where the virus is rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City .
The lockdowns in other countries expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ geographic areas and larger numbers of people .
This would put us at approximately March 26-27th .
Now keep in mind , this is not engraved in stone .
I don ’ t trust our numbers any more than I trusted China ’ s because the testing protocols have been nothing short of disastrous .
First , faulty tests were sent out to health departments across the country and then the criteria for being tested was so narrow that many cases were likely overlooked .
It took one person who caught the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tested because she didn ’ t fit the criteria .
The US might still manage to get a handle on this outbreak and contain it .
A successful treatment regimen could be discovered .
But if you ’ re looking for a general idea of when we may see lockdowns and quarantines , this pattern seems to be repeating itself and possibly speeding up .
This chart shows how far behind Italy other countries are in the grand scheme of this outbreak .
Based on this chart we are 11.5 days behind Italy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days ago .
If this chart is correct , we ’ d be looking at massive quarantines on approximately the 20th as opposed to the more gradual schedule used by China .
If the information coming out of China is accurate , their period of extensive lockdown has lasted 7-8 weeks .
Italy is right at the midpoint of that , at 3.5 weeks and the situation appears to be nowhere near under control .
Based on this , I would expect a quarantine or lockdown in the US to last for up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of variables , of course , but this would be a good general guide for getting supplies .
• This article can help you figure out what you need for a period of quarantine • This book ( which was banned by Amazon ) is an even more thorough guide • To get a free quarantine checklist , sign up here for my newsletter .
• If supplies are short where you live , this article can help you figure out some alternatives .
I have to stress that whether you are personally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a mandatory quarantine will still affect you and you ’ ll want to be prepared .
Otherwise , those folks you made fun of for buying toilet paper will be laughing at you for using the pages of a phonebook to wipe .
So what ’ s going to happen ?
It ’ s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus is going to affect the United States .
Americans are far more independence-minded that folks in China and much less likely to cooperate with draconian containment measures .
At the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for those of us who are uninsured , which up until this point may have caused many people to skip medical treatment or diagnosis , potentially spreading the virus faster .
However , as of today , March 12 , a number of universities across the country are shutting down classes until April .
Workplaces are taking more thorough sanitation measures .
Large gatherings , conferences , and conventions are being canceled .
The NBA has canceled the rest of the season , the MLB has canceled spring training , and NCAA tournaments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) Last night , President Trump announced the suspension of air traffic from the EU much to the outrage of Europe , and today he said that suspension of domestic travel is also a possibility .
( source ) We know there is community spread in New York , Washington state , and now potentially Houston , Texas .
Containment efforts thus far have failed .
While we aren ’ t in lockdown yet , anyone who is paying attention can see that we ’ re certainly headed in that direction .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If we begin having a lot more positive cases in clusters , it could accelerate the timeline .
On the other hand , if the growth in the number of cases slows down , it would show that containment efforts are working and it might never get as far as government-mandated quarantines .
Either way , if you aren ’ t prepared , I would strongly recommend you put some plans in place .
While again , I must stress , we don ’ t know for sure what will happen , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decisions just in case .
• Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown ?
• When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school ?
• Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer ?
Use this guide to get prepared for the possibility of a Covid-19 lockdown .
You ’ re the only person who can answer these questions for yourself and your family .
But you should probably answer them soon , or the decisions will most likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writes about current events , preparedness , frugality , voluntaryism , and the pursuit of liberty on her website , The Organic Prepper .
She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site , PreppersDailyNews.com .
Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company .
You can find her on Facebook , Pinterest , and Twitter .

by Daisy Luther
Yesterday the World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic (like we didn’t already know this.) As well, President Trump addressed the nation, closing American borders to all flights from Europe and announcing some ways he intends to help the people of the United States financially.
In unofficial terms, this is sh#t getting real.
Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse – before they get better. Illness completely aside, this will cause financial problems that many folks will feel for years after the pandemic is over.
The biggest question people are asking now is, “When?”
When will the US begin to see measures being taken to lockdown areas or put people into quarantine? What would that lockdown look like? How long will quarantines last?
We can look at how this has gone in other countries to get a general idea of the pattern. Of course, we’re Americans and we do things differently. Our geography is quite different as is our population density. So this isn’t an exact science. We’re looking at patterns to predict (not in a crystal ball kind of way but an analysis kind of way) what could happen here.
Here’s how things have gone in Italy and China.
We can still learn a lot from observing the patterns of the breakdowns there.
The United States is probably closer culturally to Italy and other European countries than we are to China. For example, Italy is far more concerned about human rights than China. However, geographically, we’re a lot more similar to China than we are to Italy. China has 9.3 million square kilometers and the United States has 9.1 million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Italy is 301,340 square kilometers.
Both of these things play a role in the spread of the virus and containment efforts.
What about China? Well, I don’t trust the numbers and information coming out of China to include them in this model by very much, but note that the situation of which we’re aware has been going on for about 8 weeks. The first cases of a mystery illness were heard of when Dr. Li Wenliang, who later died of the coronavirus, blew the whistle on China on December 30, 2019.
To our knowledge, the quarantines began in Wuhan on January 22. So from the first patients to the initial lockdowns was 23 days. From the date the first noted illness became public to now has been 73 days. From the date of the first quarantines in Wuhan until now has been 51 days. Although the quarantine has been loosened, there are still serious restrictions on movement in China. The country may or may not be getting back to normal, depending on who you believe. If they are not getting back to normal, then this 7-week window is inaccurate.
Back to Europe. Italy, specifically.
On about the 20th of February, three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy. Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately, their quick actions weren’t enough. What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a nationwide lockdown on March 9th.
From the first patients to local lockdowns was one day. From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days. In just 22 days, the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments, stopped all non-essential movement, and ceased business. Their medical system is so overwhelmed that they are forced to choose who to save and many people over 65 are not even assessed as the hospitals reserve their resources and space for those who have a higher chance of survival.
Less than a month ago, everything was normal in Italy. Tourists were making wishes at Trevi Fountain, people were enjoying sunny days having coffee with friends on a cafe patio, and businesses were thriving.
As of yesterday, Italy had 12,462 cases of Covid-19 and the death toll leapt from 196 to 827. In a day. Everything has been ordered closed except food stores and pharmacies.
This is how fast things can go.
And Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed. If it took China at least 50 days of quarantine, then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak.
Countries across Europe are slamming their borders shut in an effort to contain the virus. Whether they’ve acted soon enough remains to be seen.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Where is the United States in all this?
The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the United States on January 22nd in Snohomish County, Washington. Incidentally, that was the same day the city of Wuhan went into lockdown.
We have already had some small regional lockdowns and people in quarantine after traveling, but the quarantining of large groups of people has not yet occurred in the US. YET. We are on day 50 since the initial case was diagnosed in the United States. However, the first case of community spread was on February 26, and this may be a more important marker than the first case in a country the size of ours. “Community spread” means the illness was not contracted through traceable means, like a family member with the virus or travel history to places where the illness was running rampant. So if we’re counting from the first day of community spread, the US is on day 15.
If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries, that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here. That would put us at March 19th or 20th. We may see some early lockdowns of cities or regions where the virus is rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City. The lockdowns in other countries expanded in about a week to encompass greater geographic areas and larger numbers of people. This would put us at approximately March 26-27th.
Now keep in mind, this is not engraved in stone. I don’t trust our numbers any more than I trusted China’s because the testing protocols have been nothing short of disastrous. First, faulty tests were sent out to health departments across the country and then the criteria for being tested was so narrow that many cases were likely overlooked. It took one person who caught the virus through community spread 10 days to be tested because she didn’t fit the criteria.
The US might still manage to get a handle on this outbreak and contain it. A successful treatment regimen could be discovered. But if you’re looking for a general idea of when we may see lockdowns and quarantines, this pattern seems to be repeating itself and possibly speeding up.
This chart shows how far behind Italy other countries are in the grand scheme of this outbreak. Based on this chart we are 11.5 days behind Italy, who instituted their country-wide quarantine three days ago. If this chart is correct, we’d be looking at massive quarantines on approximately the 20th as opposed to the more gradual schedule used by China.
How long are quarantines lasting?
If the information coming out of China is accurate, their period of extensive lockdown has lasted 7-8 weeks. Italy is right at the midpoint of that, at 3.5 weeks and the situation appears to be nowhere near under control.
Based on this, I would expect a quarantine or lockdown in the US to last for up to 2-3 months. There are lots of variables, of course, but this would be a good general guide for getting supplies.
This article can help you figure out what you need for a period of quarantine
This book (which was banned by Amazon) is an even more thorough guide
To get a free quarantine checklist, sign up here for my newsletter.
If supplies are short where you live, this article can help you figure out some alternatives.
I have to stress that whether you are personally concerned about getting the coronavirus or not, a mandatory quarantine will still affect you and you’ll want to be prepared. Otherwise, those folks you made fun of for buying toilet paper will be laughing at you for using the pages of a phonebook to wipe.
So what’s going to happen?
It’s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus is going to affect the United States. Americans are far more independence-minded that folks in China and much less likely to cooperate with draconian containment measures. At the same time, healthcare here is outrageously expensive for those of us who are uninsured, which up until this point may have caused many people to skip medical treatment or diagnosis, potentially spreading the virus faster.
However, as of today, March 12, a number of universities across the country are shutting down classes until April. Workplaces are taking more thorough sanitation measures. Large gatherings, conferences, and conventions are being canceled. The NBA has canceled the rest of the season, the MLB has canceled spring training, and NCAA tournaments have also been canceled. (source) Last night, President Trump announced the suspension of air traffic from the EU much to the outrage of Europe, and today he said that suspension of domestic travel is also a possibility. (source)
We know there is community spread in New York, Washington state, and now potentially Houston, Texas. Containment efforts thus far have failed.
While we aren’t in lockdown yet, anyone who is paying attention can see that we’re certainly headed in that direction.
There are some things that could change this. If we begin having a lot more positive cases in clusters, it could accelerate the timeline. On the other hand, if the growth in the number of cases slows down, it would show that containment efforts are working and it might never get as far as government-mandated quarantines.
Either way, if you aren’t prepared, I would strongly recommend you put some plans in place.
It’s time to make some decisions.
While again, I must stress, we don’t know for sure what will happen, it’s time to make some decisions just in case.
Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown?
When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school?
Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer?
Use this guide to get prepared for the possibility of a Covid-19 lockdown.
You’re the only person who can answer these questions for yourself and your family. But you should probably answer them soon, or the decisions will most likely be made for you.
About Daisy
Daisy Luther writes about current events, preparedness, frugality, voluntaryism, and the pursuit of liberty on her website, The Organic Prepper. She is widely republished across alternative media and she curates all the most important news links on her aggregate site, PreppersDailyNews.com. Daisy is the best-selling author of 4 books and runs a small digital publishing company. You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Predictions are hard. But here goes…

Predictions are hard. But here goes…

We certainly live in extraordinary times .
Even people who have been irrationally dismissive of the Corona pandemic up until this point finally had to wake up and smell reality yesterday .
The NBA .
Tom Hanks .
European travel ban .
Our human brains , while magnificent and inspiring , are also wired in bizarre ways .
We ’ re filled with countless ‘ cognitive biases ’ which affect our judgment , usually for the worse .
Among them is that human beings often can not accept the possibility that tomorrow could be radically different than today .
Things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days ago have now happened .
And pretty much everything is on the table right now .
So I wanted to spend a bit of time today thinking through some potential outcomes that might have seemed inconceivable before this outbreak .
I ’ m not suggesting these are foregone conclusions .
But they ’ re definitely possible .
Nearly everything you buy at the store or online is the result of a ridiculously complex , global system of commerce , finance , and logistics .
This computer that I ’ m using right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ materials—plastics , metals , etc .
that were mined and produced from dozens of places .
The component parts were manufactured by different suppliers , assembled in China , and transported on boats and trucks to wholesalers , retailers , etc .
The whole process involves countless people , dozens of companies , and thousands upon thousands of miles .
This system works great under normal conditions .
But it ’ s not resilient .
It ’ s unable to cope with severe global shocks like we ’ re seeing now .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already seeing ) factory workers stop coming to work .
Mail delivery could be curtailed .
Or just imagine there ’ s an outbreak at an Amazon Fulfilment Center , and the company goes down to minimal staffing .
All of this will have an impact in the smooth production and delivery of goods around the world .
I don ’ t think we ’ ll have any sort of Mad Max shortages .
But the virus effect could likely create scarcity , especially for anything that ’ s manufactured outside of your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protectionist , especially with critical items like masks and medicine .
We ’ ve already seen the German government blocking a shipment of 240,000 face masks to Switzerland .
And demand for several items is going to skyrocket .
You might have heard about the toilet paper heists across Asia , or fistfights breaking out in Australia over antibacterial cleansers .
Here ’ s a photo that a friend sent to me a few hours ago of the hand sanitizer section at Walgreens– almost empty .
This isn ’ t going to stand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start to limit purchases , or governments impose full-blown rationing .
And that leads to… 3 ) Some people will become totally unglued .
Others will be saints .
Let ’ s be honest— there ’ s already so much anger in the world .
Strikes , riots , protests , Twitter rants… even armed thugs in the streets ( Antifa ) physically assaulting people with ideological differences .
Introduce a little bit of scarcity into all that anger and a few people will become totally unhinged .
Just think about how violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , punching each other ’ s lights out in Wal Mart for the last big screen TV on special .
At the same time , this pandemic also has the potential to bring out the best in people .
And countless others will be at their very best : respectful , generous , and responsible .
This one is extremely realistic right now given that we already saw martial law in China , and it ’ s happening in Europe now too .
It could easily happen in the US , with state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curfews , or even the federal government deploying the military to keep the peace .
It already happened in New York state , and we could see a lot more of it soon .
5 ) The Federal Reserve intervenes directly in the stock market , cuts rates below zero It ’ s not remotely unprecedented for a central bank to buy stocks .
Central banks in places like Japan and Switzerland took their total equity holdings to more than a trillion dollars last year .
And it ’ s totally reasonable that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buying stocks directly to prop up financial markets .
I do think that negative interest rates are nearly a foregone conclusion .
The Fed ’ s headline interest rate is already as low as 1.5 % , and the real economic impact of the Corona Virus hasn ’ t even been felt yet .
Just imagine how low they ’ ll go once people start losing their jobs .
They won ’ t be bound by zero for long .
6 ) Some incredible discoveries and developments will come out of this I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world is not coming to an end .
But I think it ’ s reasonable to assume that all of our lives are going to be a lot quieter and simpler for the next few months .
No big outings , no big trips , and a lot of time at home with the family .
And that ’ s going to be whatever we make of it .
Back in the mid-1600s after an outbreak of the Bubonic Plague ( more than 300 years after it originally surfaced in Europe ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to close its doors for TWO YEARS in an effort to reduce the spread of the plague .
Isaac Newton had just completed his degree at the time .
But his budding academic career had to be put on hold because of the university ’ s closure .
So he threw himself into independent study , retiring to a small farmhouse where he spent the next two years developing calculus , optics , and gravitational theory .
In other words , some of Isaac Newton ’ s most profound and lasting work came @ @ @ @ @ @

by Simon Black
We certainly live in extraordinary times.
Even people who have been irrationally dismissive of the Corona pandemic up until this point finally had to wake up and smell reality yesterday. The NBA. Tom Hanks. European travel ban.
Our human brains, while magnificent and inspiring, are also wired in bizarre ways. We’re filled with countless ‘cognitive biases’ which affect our judgment, usually for the worse.
Among them is that human beings often cannot accept the possibility that tomorrow could be radically different than today.
Things that were completely unthinkable just a few days ago have now happened. And pretty much everything is on the table right now.
So I wanted to spend a bit of time today thinking through some potential outcomes that might have seemed inconceivable before this outbreak.
I’m not suggesting these are foregone conclusions. But they’re definitely possible.
1) Supply chains will break down
Nearly everything you buy at the store or online is the result of a ridiculously complex, global system of commerce, finance, and logistics.
This computer that I’m using right now was sourced from hundreds of different materials—plastics, metals, etc. that were mined and produced from dozens of places. The component parts were manufactured by different suppliers, assembled in China, and transported on boats and trucks to wholesalers, retailers, etc.
The whole process involves countless people, dozens of companies, and thousands upon thousands of miles.
This system works great under normal conditions. But it’s not resilient. It’s unable to cope with severe global shocks like we’re seeing now.
I think we could see (and are already seeing) factory workers stop coming to work. Mail delivery could be curtailed. Or just imagine there’s an outbreak at an Amazon Fulfilment Center, and the company goes down to minimal staffing.
All of this will have an impact in the smooth production and delivery of goods around the world.
I don’t think we’ll have any sort of Mad Max shortages. But the virus effect could likely create scarcity, especially for anything that’s manufactured outside of your home country.
2) Rationing and Export Prohibition
Countries will become increasingly protectionist, especially with critical items like masks and medicine. We’ve already seen the German government blocking a shipment of 240,000 face masks to Switzerland.
And demand for several items is going to skyrocket. You might have heard about the toilet paper heists across Asia, or fistfights breaking out in Australia over antibacterial cleansers.
Here’s a photo that a friend sent to me a few hours ago of the hand sanitizer section at Walgreens– almost empty.
This isn’t going to stand for very long before the companies themselves start to limit purchases, or governments impose full-blown rationing. And that leads to…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
3) Some people will become totally unglued. Others will be saints.
Let’s be honest— there’s already so much anger in the world. Strikes, riots, protests, Twitter rants… even armed thugs in the streets (Antifa) physically assaulting people with ideological differences.
Introduce a little bit of scarcity into all that anger and a few people will become totally unhinged.
Just think about how violent some shoppers can be on Black Friday, punching each other’s lights out in Wal Mart for the last big screen TV on special.
At the same time, this pandemic also has the potential to bring out the best in people. And countless others will be at their very best: respectful, generous, and responsible.
4) Curfews and martial law.
This one is extremely realistic right now given that we already saw martial law in China, and it’s happening in Europe now too.
It could easily happen in the US, with state governments deploying the national guard to enforce curfews, or even the federal government deploying the military to keep the peace. It already happened in New York state, and we could see a lot more of it soon.
5) The Federal Reserve intervenes directly in the stock market, cuts rates below zero
It’s not remotely unprecedented for a central bank to buy stocks. Central banks in places like Japan and Switzerland took their total equity holdings to more than a trillion dollars last year.
And it’s totally reasonable that the Fed begins printing money again and buying stocks directly to prop up financial markets.
I do think that negative interest rates are nearly a foregone conclusion. The Fed’s headline interest rate is already as low as 1.5%, and the real economic impact of the Corona Virus hasn’t even been felt yet.
Just imagine how low they’ll go once people start losing their jobs. They won’t be bound by zero for long.
6) Some incredible discoveries and developments will come out of this
I’ve written this several times before—the world is not coming to an end. But I think it’s reasonable to assume that all of our lives are going to be a lot quieter and simpler for the next few months. No big outings, no big trips, and a lot of time at home with the family.
And that’s going to be whatever we make of it.
Back in the mid-1600s after an outbreak of the Bubonic Plague (more than 300 years after it originally surfaced in Europe), the University of Cambridge made the decision to close its doors for TWO YEARS in an effort to reduce the spread of the plague.
Isaac Newton had just completed his degree at the time. But his budding academic career had to be put on hold because of the university’s closure.
So he threw himself into independent study, retiring to a small farmhouse where he spent the next two years developing calculus, optics, and gravitational theory.
In other words, some of Isaac Newton’s most profound and lasting work came from his own quiet period.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Stock Market Crashes compared for 1929, 1987, 2020.

Date : ( 10 = October ) % = where that session closed in relation to the recent All Time @ @ @ @ @ = Market closed DOW closed at end of 1929 : -37 % Bottomed in 7/1932 @ @ @


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-13--Working from home full time (long term) is vastly overrated, it kills creative collaboration, and fo

Working from home full time (long term) is vastly overrated, it kills creative collaboration, and for many people it’s ultimately bad for mental health. The ideal workplace is half WFH, half in-person office

I ’ ve worked from home full time for over 3 years .
I often laugh at all the ads I see promoting WFH full time as the ultimate dream .
Or posts on Reddit talking about how shitty it is for employers to make them come into the office .
Yea , it has plenty of perks .
And it ’ s often better than a conservative corporate office setting .
But it ’ s not all roses and butterflies either .
The vast majority of people I know who have worked from home for a long period of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couple months are awesome .
But then the isolation and lack of motivation quickly sets in .
It ’ s really easy to kill your work/life balance .
It becomes increasingly hard to “ check out ” from work .
And you will start becoming more emotionally and socially isolated .
Many people ’ s sleep schedules get destroyed .
And it can be difficult to actually leave the house during the day sometimes ( like when you have stacked meetings/conference calls ) .
Working from coffee shops is nice occasionally , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hard to do certain tasks like conference calls .
Also internet connectivity can be questionable .
Co working spaces are also often super expensive .
It can be hard to justify the cost , and not everybody has easy access to one .
Working outside is often not really an option due to weather and internet access .
It looks great in instagram photos , but the reality is usually sun glare and shitty hot spot WiFi making work impossible .
While some studies have show certain companies can be just as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who experience lower productivity and creativity from employees .
When I go into the offices of my clients once in a while I feel like a new man .
The in person collaboration can be super helpful .
It ’ s great to be able to bounce ideas off people in person or have a face to face discussion .
And it ’ s really nice to be around people you know in general ( this is coming from an extreme introvert ) .
I think the best scenario for the future of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as many desire , but rather some mixture of both .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

by DontMicrowaveCats
I’ve worked from home full time for over 3 years. I often laugh at all the ads I see promoting WFH full time as the ultimate dream. Or posts on Reddit talking about how shitty it is for employers to make them come into the office.
Yea, it has plenty of perks. And it’s often better than a conservative corporate office setting. But it’s not all roses and butterflies either.
The vast majority of people I know who have worked from home for a long period of time agree with me. The first couple months are awesome. But then the isolation and lack of motivation quickly sets in.
It’s really easy to kill your work/life balance. It becomes increasingly hard to “check out” from work. And you will start becoming more emotionally and socially isolated.
Many people’s sleep schedules get destroyed. And it can be difficult to actually leave the house during the day sometimes (like when you have stacked meetings/conference calls).
Working from coffee shops is nice occasionally, but it can be distracting, expensive, and hard to do certain tasks like conference calls. Also internet connectivity can be questionable.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Co working spaces are also often super expensive. It can be hard to justify the cost, and not everybody has easy access to one.
Working outside is often not really an option due to weather and internet access. It looks great in instagram photos, but the reality is usually sun glare and shitty hot spot WiFi making work impossible.
While some studies have show certain companies can be just as productive with WFH…there are lots of companies who experience lower productivity and creativity from employees.
When I go into the offices of my clients once in a while I feel like a new man. The in person collaboration can be super helpful. It’s great to be able to bounce ideas off people in person or have a face to face discussion. And it’s really nice to be around people you know in general (this is coming from an extreme introvert).
I think the best scenario for the future of business isn’t full time WFH as many desire, but rather some mixture of both.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.