investmentwatchblog--2020-08-31--Hedge Funds Start Piling Into “The Big Short 3.0”

A very evident sign that an economic collapse is coming is the happening of the Big Short .
With hundreds of bankruptcies happening in the retail sector , malls are in jeopardy .
But you might be wondering : How malls are going to interfere with the downfall of the economy , in the worst economic collapse the world has seen since the Great Depression ?
This is what we will discuss in this video .
On our previous video , titled “ Planned Economic Collapse Of America : 60 Million Americans Lost Their Jobs , Retail Apocalypse ( INSERT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we discussed how the global sanitary crisis has disrupted the functioning of several sectors of the economy , leading a colossal amount of businesses to file for bankruptcy up until now .
The retail sector was particularly affected and many stores are closing their doors for good .
That means , these empty spaces on malls may never be replaced , because most solutions for renting these vacant spots aren ’ t actually practicable , due to commercial and structural limitations .
Therefore , it is expected for many malls to disappear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you haven ’ t checked that video yet , you should definitely give it a chance since it will make it clear to you how everything connects .
This video is going to analyze the signals that a next Big Short or , as people have been calling , a Big Short 3.0 is coming next .
The new Big Short is betting on a mall meltdown , also known as a “ Mall Short ” , which has been creating monumental profits for many investors since 2019 .
Investor Carl Icahn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brick-and-mortar retailers and produced a $ 1.3 billion gain during the first half of the year .
Now , his attention has shifted to the “ Mall Short ” when he bought credit default insurance using CMBX 6 , an index highly exposed to shopping mall loans .
From March up to this point , with the lockdowns and the current social-distancing regulations , consumption habits have changed .
60 million people were laid-off , which , of course , also contributes to the collapse of physical stores that depend on people circulating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say , this crash not only contributed to the astronomical growth of online shopping , but also created a new bubble of debt because rental defaults in shopping malls around the country are going through the roofs .
Furthermore , not only retailers and malls constitute this new bubble , but restaurants , hotels and multi-housing units are setting new record highs in rent delinquencies around the country .
In that sense , the CMBX 9 – a synthetic index with a high susceptibility to the hotel rental defaults – is being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Big Short 3.0 .
As reported on a very well-known economic website with CMBX 6 now done , we should keep a close eye on CMBX 9 .
With its outlier exposure to hotels that have quickly emerged as the most impacted sector from the health crisis , this may well be the next Big Short .
The CMBX 9 has unique features that may influence its leverage as a bet .
Additionally , renowned hedge fund investors have signaled that over the course of the past month “ there has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than any of the other CMBS indices .
That ’ s because some hedge funds are actively looking to play the short side on the Series 9 index due to its significant hotel exposure ” .
Furthermore , the index has become the favorite option for many traders right now , who affirm that “ funds have been coming out of the CMBX 6 and moving onto the CMBX 9 .
The CMBX 6 trade has gone a bit long in the tooth and is now more fairly priced given the likely outbreak-related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bet against the already weak commercial real state sector will only require some time until the CMBX 9 declines and investors start their harvest , once again , profiting billions of dollars during an apocalyptic economic scenario worldwide .
In that direction , nearly 25 % of hotel loans in CMBS are now delinquent compared to roughly 20 % for anchored retail loans , and approximately 10 % of hotel loans securitized in bonds are now more than 90 days overdue , compared to only 3.7 % for retail loans .
Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything is already set up for the system to fail no matter what .
Only through such sharp failure , the 1 % gets even richer while the ones who carry the economy on their backs are still helpless in the face of unemployment and social turbulence .
The billionaires are making more billions with the unprecedented economic crash that led to the most critical unemployment rate of the century .
Epic Economist always tries to give distinct insights you will never see on mainstream media .
Our biggest aim is to widen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much larger issue that is taking over the world right now .

A very evident sign that an economic collapse is coming is the happening of the Big Short. With hundreds of bankruptcies happening in the retail sector, malls are in jeopardy. But you might be wondering: How malls are going to interfere with the downfall of the economy, in the worst economic collapse the world has seen since the Great Depression? This is what we will discuss in this video.
On our previous video, titled “Planned Economic Collapse Of America: 60 Million Americans Lost Their Jobs, Retail Apocalypse (INSERT LINK, IF YOU WANT)”, we discussed how the global sanitary crisis has disrupted the functioning of several sectors of the economy, leading a colossal amount of businesses to file for bankruptcy up until now. The retail sector was particularly affected and many stores are closing their doors for good. That means, these empty spaces on malls may never be replaced, because most solutions for renting these vacant spots aren’t actually practicable, due to commercial and structural limitations. Therefore, it is expected for many malls to disappear within four to five years. If you haven’t checked that video yet, you should definitely give it a chance since it will make it clear to you how everything connects.
This video is going to analyze the signals that a next Big Short or, as people have been calling, a Big Short 3.0 is coming next. The new Big Short is betting on a mall meltdown, also known as a “Mall Short”, which has been creating monumental profits for many investors since 2019. Investor Carl Icahn’s had bet on the downfall of brick-and-mortar retailers and produced a $1.3 billion gain during the first half of the year. Now, his attention has shifted to the “Mall Short” when he bought credit default insurance using CMBX 6, an index highly exposed to shopping mall loans. From March up to this point, with the lockdowns and the current social-distancing regulations, consumption habits have changed. 60 million people were laid-off, which, of course, also contributes to the collapse of physical stores that depend on people circulating to maintain its activities.
That is to say, this crash not only contributed to the astronomical growth of online shopping, but also created a new bubble of debt because rental defaults in shopping malls around the country are going through the roofs. Furthermore, not only retailers and malls constitute this new bubble, but restaurants, hotels and multi-housing units are setting new record highs in rent delinquencies around the country. In that sense, the CMBX 9 – a synthetic index with a high susceptibility to the hotel rental defaults – is being seen as the next possible trigger to the Big Short 3.0. As reported on a very well-known economic website with CMBX 6 now done, we should keep a close eye on CMBX 9. With its outlier exposure to hotels that have quickly emerged as the most impacted sector from the health crisis, this may well be the next Big Short.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The CMBX 9 has unique features that may influence its leverage as a bet. Additionally, renowned hedge fund investors have signaled that over the course of the past month “there has been more selling pressure on the CMBX 9 than any of the other CMBS indices. That’s because some hedge funds are actively looking to play the short side on the Series 9 index due to its significant hotel exposure”. Furthermore, the index has become the favorite option for many traders right now, who affirm that “funds have been coming out of the CMBX 6 and moving onto the CMBX 9. The CMBX 6 trade has gone a bit long in the tooth and is now more fairly priced given the likely outbreak-related effects.”
With all that said, the bet against the already weak commercial real state sector will only require some time until the CMBX 9 declines and investors start their harvest, once again, profiting billions of dollars during an apocalyptic economic scenario worldwide. In that direction, nearly 25% of hotel loans in CMBS are now delinquent compared to roughly 20% for anchored retail loans, and approximately 10% of hotel loans securitized in bonds are now more than 90 days overdue, compared to only 3.7% for retail loans.
Our intention here is to show you how everything is already set up for the system to fail no matter what. Only through such sharp failure, the 1% gets even richer while the ones who carry the economy on their backs are still helpless in the face of unemployment and social turbulence. The billionaires are making more billions with the unprecedented economic crash that led to the most critical unemployment rate of the century.
Epic Economist always tries to give distinct insights you will never see on mainstream media. Our biggest aim is to widen the perspectives of our subscribers to a much larger issue that is taking over the world right now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-31--Kenosha Wisconsin Mayor ADMITS the EXACT MOMENT He Messed Up in Protecting his Citizens

Madison Dibble from Washington Examiner reports , The mayor of Kenosha , Wisconsin , said his city did not have @ @ @ @ @ quash the riots that resulted in the death of two demonstrators this week .

Madison Dibble from Washington Examiner reports, The mayor of Kenosha, Wisconsin, said his city did not have enough law enforcement officers to quash the riots that resulted in the death of two demonstrators this week.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.washingtonexaminer.com/ne…


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-31--General Keith Kellogg PROVES John Bolton is Out to Get Trump

100 % Fed Up reports , On Wednesday night General Keith Kellogg spoke at the RNC and praised President Trump @ @ @ @ @ Kellogg called former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton a liar .

100% Fed Up reports, On Wednesday night General Keith Kellogg spoke at the RNC and praised President Trump. On Friday, General Kellogg called former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton a liar.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-31--MUST SEE: Mitch McConnell Comes in CLUTCH during RNC Speech – Previews What’s at Stake in November

Reagan McCarthy from Townhall reports , The fourth and final night of the Republican National Convention ( RNC ) featured @ @ @ @ @ s most talented legislators , Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) .

Reagan McCarthy from Townhall reports, The fourth and final night of the Republican National Convention (RNC) featured one of the GOP’s most talented legislators, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
townhall.com/tipsheet/reaganm…


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--Now is the Time to Learn About and Invest in Cryptography

The pandemic and related economic calamity pushed people towards cryptocurrency assets as an attractive alternative .
Confidence in traditional investments and economies has eroded , and cryptocurrency ’ s decentralized nature encourages investors to put Bitcoin and other currencies into their portfolios .
Driving this interest is also a function of Bitcoin ’ s limited supply .
Approximately 18.5 million in circulation , it is reaching the maximum 21 million coins .
And with several million coins lost due to misplaced keys , the actual available supply is even smaller .
Demand for Bitcoin ( and the price ) also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which reduced the mining award for the cryptocurrency .
The halving brought additional attention to Bitcoin as well as the entire market , as more news outlets and the broader community learned about more about how cryptocurrencies function .
The Millennial generation is driving acceptance of cryptocurrencies as they are already comfortable holding digital assets and using their phones as their banking tools .
Bitcoin is also in its 11th year of existence , so for a 23-year-old investor , the currency has been around for all their teenage and beyond years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new thing , ” to this group , but instead , an established form of currency that ’ s in-tune with other globally accepted tools and platforms .
Financial players are entering cryptocurrency at a furious pace .
Fidelity launched a platform called Fidelity Digital Assets , which is a trading tool for institutional investors to hold certain cryptocurrencies .
This type of offering represents a fundamental shift where big financial firms once mocked or downplayed cryptocurrencies , but now actively want to join the market before they are left behind .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Bitcoin Depot is greatly expanding and simplifying the purchase , sale , and access to digital assets .
These machines also offer opportunity for underbanked populations to buy , hold , and sell cryptocurrencies , so the potential gains are not restricted to people in the tech industry .
The “ underbanked ” are people with limited access to traditional banking accounts or related financial instruments , either by choice or not .
Bitcoin ATMs enable them to hold cryptocurrencies as an investment and leverage micro-lending opportunities to fund a or expand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point for the cryptocurrency market .
Barriers to entry continue to fall , investors gain deeper understanding about cryptocurrencies and the bigger players see opportunity .
The considerable uncertainty and disruption of 2020 has wreaked havoc for many industries , but has created an ideal moment in time for people to consider cryptocurrencies as investments and a new type of daily currency .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

The pandemic and related economic calamity pushed people towards cryptocurrency assets as an attractive alternative. Confidence in traditional investments and economies has eroded, and cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature encourages investors to put Bitcoin and other currencies into their portfolios. Driving this interest is also a function of Bitcoin’s limited supply. Approximately 18.5 million in circulation, it is reaching the maximum 21 million coins. And with several million coins lost due to misplaced keys, the actual available supply is even smaller.
Demand for Bitcoin (and the price) also increased after the May 11th halving event, which reduced the mining award for the cryptocurrency. The halving brought additional attention to Bitcoin as well as the entire market, as more news outlets and the broader community learned about more about how cryptocurrencies function.
Broad Acceptance and Understanding
The Millennial generation is driving acceptance of cryptocurrencies as they are already comfortable holding digital assets and using their phones as their banking tools. Bitcoin is also in its 11th year of existence, so for a 23-year-old investor, the currency has been around for all their teenage and beyond years. It is not a “strange new thing,” to this group, but instead, an established form of currency that’s in-tune with other globally accepted tools and platforms.
Financial players are entering cryptocurrency at a furious pace. Fidelity launched a platform called Fidelity Digital Assets, which is a trading tool for institutional investors to hold certain cryptocurrencies. This type of offering represents a fundamental shift where big financial firms once mocked or downplayed cryptocurrencies, but now actively want to join the market before they are left behind.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Buying Made Simple
The proliferation of cryptocurrency ATMs from companies such as Bitcoin Depot is greatly expanding and simplifying the purchase, sale, and access to digital assets. These machines also offer opportunity for underbanked populations to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrencies, so the potential gains are not restricted to people in the tech industry. The “underbanked” are people with limited access to traditional banking accounts or related financial instruments, either by choice or not. Bitcoin ATMs enable them to hold cryptocurrencies as an investment and leverage micro-lending opportunities to fund a or expand a business.
This is a turning point for the cryptocurrency market. Barriers to entry continue to fall, investors gain deeper understanding about cryptocurrencies and the bigger players see opportunity. The considerable uncertainty and disruption of 2020 has wreaked havoc for many industries, but has created an ideal moment in time for people to consider cryptocurrencies as investments and a new type of daily currency.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--CVS allows asymptomatic pharmacy employees to work… Filling our prescriptions!

• A leaked email from a CVS district leader told staff not to inform patients that their prescriptions were filled by someone who tested positive for COVID-19 .
• CVS spokesperson Michael DeAngelis told Business Insider , “ It is not our policy to prohibit our pharmacies from informing patients if their prescription was filled when an employee who tested positive for COVID-19 worked in the pharmacy.
” • The Georgia CVS technician who shared the email with Business Insider said workers were threatened with discipline or termination if they told customers about confirmed COVID-19 cases .
• Fourteen CVS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that CVS has a pattern of bullying staff and flagrantly disregarding the safety of customers .
A leaked email revealed a CVS district leader instructed employees not to tell patients that their medications had been filled by someone who tested positive for COVID-19 .
CVS spokesperson Michael DeAngelis told Business Insider , “ It is not our policy to prohibit our pharmacies from informing patients if their prescription was filled when an employee who tested positive for COVID-19 worked in the pharmacy.
” A Georgia CVS technician shared the internal email with Business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leader asked employees to track down which prescriptions were filled by a COVID-19-positive employee and pull them from the shelves .
However , if a patient had already picked up one of those prescriptions , the standard policy was to “ NOT make an outreach call .
”

A leaked email from a CVS district leader told staff not to inform patients that their prescriptions were filled by someone who tested positive for COVID-19.
CVS spokesperson Michael DeAngelis told Business Insider, “It is not our policy to prohibit our pharmacies from informing patients if their prescription was filled when an employee who tested positive for COVID-19 worked in the pharmacy.”
The Georgia CVS technician who shared the email with Business Insider said workers were threatened with discipline or termination if they told customers about confirmed COVID-19 cases.
Fourteen CVS employees across the US told Business Insider that CVS has a pattern of bullying staff and flagrantly disregarding the safety of customers.
A leaked email revealed a CVS district leader instructed employees not to tell patients that their medications had been filled by someone who tested positive for COVID-19.
CVS spokesperson Michael DeAngelis told Business Insider, “It is not our policy to prohibit our pharmacies from informing patients if their prescription was filled when an employee who tested positive for COVID-19 worked in the pharmacy.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A Georgia CVS technician shared the internal email with Business Insider. The email from the district leader asked employees to track down which prescriptions were filled by a COVID-19-positive employee and pull them from the shelves. However, if a patient had already picked up one of those prescriptions, the standard policy was to “NOT make an outreach call.”
www.businessinsider.com/cvs-told-staff-to-hide-worker-covid-19-cases-from-patients-2020-8


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--Do We Even Know What An “Evangelical Christian” Is Anymore?

Every four years , there is a tremendous amount of discussion about “ evangelical voters ” and the influence that they will have on the outcome of the presidential election .
Most of the pundits on CNN , MSNBC and Fox News speak of evangelicals as if they were this monolithic group that all generally vote the same way and generally believe the same basic things .
Perhaps that was somewhat true at one time , but now things have dramatically changed .
As you will see below , surveys have found that large numbers of evangelicals are abandoning core @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staggering .
In fact , it has gotten to a point where I am not even sure what an “ evangelical Christian ” is anymore .
I figured that a good place to look for a definition of “ evangelical Christian ” in 2020 would be on the official website of the organization that is supposed to be representing us on a national level .
According to the National Association Of Evangelicals , there are certain distinct beliefs that set evangelical Christians apart from the rest of the population… That definition seems quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s run with it .
Evangelicals are supposed to believe that Jesus is Lord , but it appears that nearly a third of them do not really understand what that means .
According to one recent survey , a whopping 30 percent of all evangelicals believe that “ Jesus isn ’ t God ” … More than half of American adults , including 30 % of evangelicals , say Jesus isn ’ t God but most agree He was a great teacher , according to results from the 2020 State of Theology survey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teachings of the Christian Church hold that Jesus truly existed as both man and God , among the key findings of the biennial State of Theology survey from Ligonier Ministries conducted with LifeWay Research , is that 52 % of American adults believe that Jesus was a great teacher and nothing more .
I don ’ t understand how this could possibly be happening .
Either evangelical churches are doing an exceedingly poor job of teaching basic theology , or evangelicals are rejecting that teaching in staggering numbers .
Let ’ s take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a survey that was conducted last year , 61 percent of evangelical Christians want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade… It is great that evangelicals are more likely than any other group to want Roe v. Wade overturned , but why isn ’ t the number for evangelicals 100 percent ?
According to the survey , 35 percent of evangelicals actually want the Supreme Court to keep Roe v. Wade in place .
But those two things should be mutually exclusive .
If you are an evangelical Christian , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Roe v. Wade .
How in the world could more than a third of all evangelicals want to keep abortion legal ?
And when it comes to gay marriage , we see numbers that are even more alarming .
The following comes from an article that was authored by Jim Denison… How are these numbers possible ?
In the old days , it was well understood that “ evangelical Christians ” were against abortion and gay marriage .
But now a new generation of “ evangelical Christians ” has come along that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Like I said , I am not sure that I can even define what an “ evangelical Christian ” is anymore .
At this point , a lot of “ evangelical Christian ” young people don ’ t even like using words that directly relate to evangelism… If you don ’ t believe in “ converting ” people or “ winning souls ” , how in the world can you even call yourself an “ evangelical ” ?
Sadly , this is yet more evidence of the rapid decline of the Christian faith @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to researcher Ronald F. Inglehart , this decline has really picked up speed since 2007… And the decline in the United States has been particularly noticeable .
According to Inglehart , since 2007 the U.S. has moved away from religion faster than any other country… In a recent interview with Dr. Steve Greene , I discussed the fact that God has been trying to call this nation back to himself for a very long time , but we have been racing the other direction .
The numbers that I have just shared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need revival , and that is what we should be praying for .
Because the only hope for America is a return to God , and right now that is definitely not happening .

by Michael Snyder
Every four years, there is a tremendous amount of discussion about “evangelical voters” and the influence that they will have on the outcome of the presidential election. Most of the pundits on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News speak of evangelicals as if they were this monolithic group that all generally vote the same way and generally believe the same basic things. Perhaps that was somewhat true at one time, but now things have dramatically changed. As you will see below, surveys have found that large numbers of evangelicals are abandoning core evangelical beliefs at a rate that is staggering. In fact, it has gotten to a point where I am not even sure what an “evangelical Christian” is anymore.
I figured that a good place to look for a definition of “evangelical Christian” in 2020 would be on the official website of the organization that is supposed to be representing us on a national level. According to the National Association Of Evangelicals, there are certain distinct beliefs that set evangelical Christians apart from the rest of the population…
Evangelicals take the Bible seriously and believe in Jesus Christ as Savior and Lord. The term “evangelical” comes from the Greek word euangelion, meaning “the good news” or the “gospel.” Thus, the evangelical faith focuses on the “good news” of salvation brought to sinners by Jesus Christ.
That definition seems quite soft to me, but let’s run with it.
Evangelicals are supposed to believe that Jesus is Lord, but it appears that nearly a third of them do not really understand what that means. According to one recent survey, a whopping 30 percent of all evangelicals believe that “Jesus isn’t God”…
More than half of American adults, including 30% of evangelicals, say Jesus isn’t God but most agree He was a great teacher, according to results from the 2020 State of Theology survey. Even though the Bible and traditional teachings of the Christian Church hold that Jesus truly existed as both man and God, among the key findings of the biennial State of Theology survey from Ligonier Ministries conducted with LifeWay Research, is that 52% of American adults believe that Jesus was a great teacher and nothing more.
I don’t understand how this could possibly be happening.
Either evangelical churches are doing an exceedingly poor job of teaching basic theology, or evangelicals are rejecting that teaching in staggering numbers.
Let’s take a look at another issue.
According to a survey that was conducted last year, 61 percent of evangelical Christians want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade…
In a 2019 survey, most Americans (70%) said they oppose overturning Roe v. Wade. But several states have enacted laws designed to challenge the ruling in recent years, including bills passed in seven states (among them Louisiana) that seek to ban almost all abortions. White evangelical Protestants (61%) are much more likely to say they want the high court to completely overturn Roe v. Wade than are Catholics (28%), white Protestants who are not evangelical (26%) and religious “nones” (10%).
It is great that evangelicals are more likely than any other group to want Roe v. Wade overturned, but why isn’t the number for evangelicals 100 percent?
According to the survey, 35 percent of evangelicals actually want the Supreme Court to keep Roe v. Wade in place.
But those two things should be mutually exclusive. If you are an evangelical Christian, it should be impossible for you to support Roe v. Wade.
How in the world could more than a third of all evangelicals want to keep abortion legal?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And when it comes to gay marriage, we see numbers that are even more alarming. The following comes from an article that was authored by Jim Denison…
Two reports caught my eye this week. One: In 2007, 90 percent of evangelicals said their church forbid (63 percent) or strongly discouraged (27 percent) “homosexual behaviors.” In 2020, that figure has dropped to 65 percent (33.7 percent forbid, while 31.4 percent strongly discourage). Two: In 2008, 34.4 percent of evangelicals between the ages of eighteen and thirty-five supported same-sex marriage. In 2018, that figure had risen to 56.1 percent.
How are these numbers possible?
In the old days, it was well understood that “evangelical Christians” were against abortion and gay marriage.
But now a new generation of “evangelical Christians” has come along that is changing all of the old definitions.
Like I said, I am not sure that I can even define what an “evangelical Christian” is anymore.
At this point, a lot of “evangelical Christian” young people don’t even like using words that directly relate to evangelism…
For example, 35% of young adults and 38% of teens said the word “convert” tops the list of objectionable mission-related words for them. And 31% of young adults and 30% of teens also rejected the term “winning souls.”
If you don’t believe in “converting” people or “winning souls”, how in the world can you even call yourself an “evangelical”?
I simply don’t understand.
Sadly, this is yet more evidence of the rapid decline of the Christian faith in much of the industrialized world. According to researcher Ronald F. Inglehart, this decline has really picked up speed since 2007…
But since 2007, things have changed with surprising speed. From about 2007 to 2019, the overwhelming majority of the countries we studied—43 out of 49—became less religious. The decline in belief was not confined to high-income countries and appeared across most of the world. Growing numbers of people no longer find religion a necessary source of support and meaning in their lives. Even the United States—long cited as proof that an economically advanced society can be strongly religious—has now joined other wealthy countries in moving away from religion.
And the decline in the United States has been particularly noticeable. According to Inglehart, since 2007 the U.S. has moved away from religion faster than any other country…
From 1981 to 2007, the United States ranked as one of the world’s more religious countries, with religiosity levels changing very little. Since then, the United States has shown the largest move away from religion of any country for which we have data. Near the end of the initial period studied, Americans’ mean rating of the importance of God in their lives was 8.2 on a ten-point scale. In the most recent U.S. survey, from 2017, the figure had dropped to 4.6, an astonishingly sharp decline.
In a recent interview with Dr. Steve Greene, I discussed the fact that God has been trying to call this nation back to himself for a very long time, but we have been racing the other direction.
The numbers that I have just shared with you are evidence that we desperately need revival, and that is what we should be praying for.
Because the only hope for America is a return to God, and right now that is definitely not happening.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--Fed Embraces Higher Inflation. Will It Embrace Gold, Too?

Fed adopts a new strategy that opens the door for higher inflation .
The change is fundamentally positive for gold prices .
So , it happened !
In line with market expectations , the Fed has changed its monetary policy framework into a more dovish one !
This is something we warned our Readers in our last Fundamental Gold Report : the Fed could change how it defines and achieves its inflation goal , trying , for example , to achieve its inflation target as an average over a longer time period rather than on an annual basis .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ justified .
On Thursday , the FOMC announced the approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy .
The change was timed for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ’ s speech to the Jackson Hole economic symposium .
Generally speaking , the Fed declared that it will focus more on the job market and won ’ t worry about higher inflation .
This is because “ a robust job market can be sustained without causing an unwelcome increase in inflation ” , as Powell explained in his remarks discussing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the most significant changes to the framework document are : • None The Fed explicitly acknowledges the decline in the in an environment of persistently low , in particular the effective lower bound .
And , of course , these challenges will create excellent excuse to adopt even more than currently implemented .
After all , to overcome these challenges , the Fed is prepared to “ use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals ” , • None On maximum employment , the FOMC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ informed by the of employment from its the maximum level .
Oh boy , this is such a radical change !
It means that the Fed will cease to worry about the overheating of the economy .
In other words , the U.S. central bank drops the Philips curve .
You see , in the past , the strong labor market meant that higher inflation could be just around the corner , which would be a reason to hike the .
Now , the Fed could print money and ease its monetary stance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A great triumph of doves !
• None And finally , on price stability , the FOMC adjusted its strategy for achieving its longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent by noting that it “ seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.
” It means that after periods of inflation rates below the target , the Fed would accept inflation rates above the target !
As the revised statement states “ following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent , appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time.
” It ’ s a great change ( at least in rhetoric , as we doubt whether the Fed ever worried about inflation since Volcker left the U.S. central bank ) , as it means de facto adopting price-level targeting .
Undershoots of inflation are not forgotten , but they are made up for later .
Of course , we are yet to see whether the Fed will manage to trigger higher official inflation rates ( as successfully as asset price inflation ) , but shift allows the Fed to ease its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its dovish bias even stronger !
What does it all mean for the gold market ?
Well , the updated Fed ’ s strategy opens the door for easier monetary policy , ultra low interest rates for longer , and higher inflation .
So , the shift is fundamentally positive for the gold prices .
Actually , it could be the trigger that gold needed to continue its rally further north .
However , the initial gold ’ s reaction has been negative ( i.e.
, after a spike , there was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below shows .
Of course , investors should remember that the updated strategy does not mean that we will see double-digit inflation tomorrow .
The inflation has been under the Fed ’ s target for years , so it does not have to rise just because the Fed changed its monetary framework .
And the FOMC wrote about inflation “ moderately ” above the target – yeah , we know that they couldn ’ t write otherwise , but we really doubt whether the Fed officials really want to see double-digit inflation rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many times , the current economic crisis is more inflationary that the Great Recession .
The recent fast increase in the broad money supply increases the risk of higher inflation in the future .
Now , the Fed ’ s announcement that it will welcome and embrace the rise in inflation , should increase inflation expectations , increasing the demand for gold as an inflation-hedge .
Higher inflation expectations would also lower the real interest rates , also supporting the gold prices .
Thank you , Mr. Powell !
If you enjoyed today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invite you to check out our premium services .
We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals .
In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope , we invite you to subscribe today .
If you ’ re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet , we urge you to sign up .
It ’ s free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it , you can easily unsubscribe .
Sign up today !

by Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Fed adopts a new strategy that opens the door for higher inflation. The change is fundamentally positive for gold prices.
So, it happened! In line with market expectations, the Fed has changed its monetary policy framework into a more dovish one! This is something we warned our Readers in our last Fundamental Gold Report:
the Fed could change how it defines and achieves its inflation goal, trying, for example, to achieve its inflation target as an average over a longer time period rather than on an annual basis.
And it turned out that our worries were justified. On Thursday, the FOMC announced the approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. The change was timed for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Jackson Hole economic symposium.
Generally speaking, the Fed declared that it will focus more on the job market and won’t worry about higher inflation. This is because “a robust job market can be sustained without causing an unwelcome increase in inflation”, as Powell explained in his remarks discussing the policy shift.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Being more specific, the most significant changes to the framework document are:
The Fed explicitly acknowledges the decline in the neutral interest rates and challenges for monetary policy in an environment of persistently low interest rates , in particular the effective lower bound. And, of course, these challenges will create excellent excuse to adopt even more dovish policies than currently implemented. After all, to overcome these challenges, the Fed is prepared to “use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals”,
On maximum employment, the FOMC announced that its policy decision will be informed by the shortfalls rather than deviations of employment from its the maximum level. Oh boy, this is such a radical change! It means that the Fed will cease to worry about the overheating of the economy. In other words, the U.S. central bank drops the Philips curve. You see, in the past, the strong labor market meant that higher inflation could be just around the corner, which would be a reason to hike the federal funds rate . Now, the Fed could print money and ease its monetary stance like there’s no tomorrow! A great triumph of doves!
And finally, on price stability, the FOMC adjusted its strategy for achieving its longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent by noting that it “seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.” It means that after periods of inflation rates below the target, the Fed would accept inflation rates above the target! As the revised statement states “ following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” It’s a great change (at least in rhetoric, as we doubt whether the Fed ever worried about inflation since Volcker left the U.S. central bank), as it means de facto adopting price-level targeting. Undershoots of inflation are not forgotten, but they are made up for later. Of course, we are yet to see whether the Fed will manage to trigger higher official inflation rates (as successfully as asset price inflation), but shift allows the Fed to ease its monetary policy even further and to implement its dovish bias even stronger!
Implications for Gold
What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the updated Fed’s strategy opens the door for easier monetary policy, ultra low interest rates for longer, and higher inflation. So, the shift is fundamentally positive for the gold prices. Actually, it could be the trigger that gold needed to continue its rally further north. However, the initial gold’s reaction has been negative (i.e., after a spike, there was a sharp reversal), as the chart below shows.
Of course, investors should remember that the updated strategy does not mean that we will see double-digit inflation tomorrow. The inflation has been under the Fed’s target for years, so it does not have to rise just because the Fed changed its monetary framework. And the FOMC wrote about inflation “moderately” above the target – yeah, we know that they couldn’t write otherwise, but we really doubt whether the Fed officials really want to see double-digit inflation rates.
However, as we have repeated many times, the current economic crisis is more inflationary that the Great Recession. The recent fast increase in the broad money supply increases the risk of higher inflation in the future. Now, the Fed’s announcement that it will welcome and embrace the rise in inflation, should increase inflation expectations, increasing the demand for gold as an inflation-hedge. Higher inflation expectations would also lower the real interest rates, also supporting the gold prices. Thank you, Mr. Powell!
If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!
Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--Buy Lots Of Food And Store It Some Place Safe, Because Very Difficult Times Are Approaching

I ’ m just going to be very blunt with you .
Things have already gotten quite crazy , but they are going to get even crazier .
Global food supplies have already gotten tight , but they are going to get even tighter .
When even the UN starts using the word “ biblical ” to describe the famine that the world is facing , that is a sign that the hour is very late .
Thankfully , we are not facing famine in the short-term here in the United States , but “ temporary shortages ” of certain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and food prices are aggressively shooting higher .
Earlier today my wife stopped by the grocery store to pick up a couple of things , and one particular item that used to cost about 12 dollars was now 20 dollars instead .
But thanks to the Federal Reserve , this is about as low as food prices are going to get .
The Fed seems absolutely determined to crank up inflation , and that is going to have very serious implications during the times that are ahead .
Right now we have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of trouble comes along , and I would greatly encourage you to use this window of opportunity to buy lots of food and store it some place safe .
Some people seem to think that if they have stored up a couple months worth of food that they will be just fine .
Unfortunately , that is not the reality of what we are facing .
The truth is that you should have enough food to feed every single person in your household for an extended period of time , and many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Because when things get really crazy , many of the friends , neighbors and extended family members that neglected to prepare will come knocking on your door asking for help .
There are some people that would turn away those friends , neighbors and extended family members , but I couldn ’ t do that .
Yes , they are at fault for refusing to get prepared , but I just couldn ’ t turn them out into the street .
If you also plan to assist those around you that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job even bigger .
In the end , there is a limit to what any of us can do , and so we will do what we can with what we have and we will leave the rest to God .
The overwhelming demand that we are witnessing at food banks around the nation right now gives us some clues about what we can expect as economic conditions get even worse .
In Alameda County , vehicles are lining up “ as early as seven in the morning ” just to get a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ food banks… When I read that quote from a local CBS news report , it struck me that it sounded almost exactly like what Heidi Baker said when she saw people waiting in line to get food… On the east coast we are seeing similar things happen .
In fact , there was a quarter-mile line at the break of dawn at a food bank in Queens on Saturday… I found it quite interesting that the New York Post is comparing what is happening now to the “ bread lines in the 1930s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what we are facing people .
So many people are already in desperate need , and this “ perfect storm ” is just getting started .
In the Richmond , Virginia area things are even worse .
According to one recent report , vehicles have been lining up at one food bank “ as early as six hours ” before it opens… Can you imagine sitting in your vehicle for six hours waiting for a food bank to open ?
This is how desperate some people in America have already become .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this article , the United Nations is using the word “ biblical ” to describe the famine and starvation that are coming all around the world .
The following comes from CNBC… I don ’ t know about you , but I find that warning to be quite sobering .
In a “ worst-case scenario ” , the UN projects that “ about a tenth of the world ’ s population won ’ t have enough to eat this year ” … Sadly , even though we have already seen so many crazy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are still not prepping .
And so when things really start to unravel in a major way , most of them are going to be short on food and supplies very rapidly .
The other day I was interviewed by Dr. Steve Greene , and we discussed some of the reasons why the troubles that we have experienced so far are just the tip of the iceberg .
So much more is coming , but most people don ’ t want to hear that .
Most Americans still want to believe that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and so they see absolutely no need to prepare for the chaotic times that are approaching .

by Michael Snyder
I’m just going to be very blunt with you. Things have already gotten quite crazy, but they are going to get even crazier. Global food supplies have already gotten tight, but they are going to get even tighter. When even the UN starts using the word “biblical” to describe the famine that the world is facing, that is a sign that the hour is very late. Thankfully, we are not facing famine in the short-term here in the United States, but “temporary shortages” of certain items have already been popping up, and food prices are aggressively shooting higher. Earlier today my wife stopped by the grocery store to pick up a couple of things, and one particular item that used to cost about 12 dollars was now 20 dollars instead. But thanks to the Federal Reserve, this is about as low as food prices are going to get. The Fed seems absolutely determined to crank up inflation, and that is going to have very serious implications during the times that are ahead. Right now we have a window of opportunity before the next wave of trouble comes along, and I would greatly encourage you to use this window of opportunity to buy lots of food and store it some place safe.
Some people seem to think that if they have stored up a couple months worth of food that they will be just fine.
Unfortunately, that is not the reality of what we are facing. The truth is that you should have enough food to feed every single person in your household for an extended period of time, and many of you will need much more than that. Because when things get really crazy, many of the friends, neighbors and extended family members that neglected to prepare will come knocking on your door asking for help.
There are some people that would turn away those friends, neighbors and extended family members, but I couldn’t do that. Yes, they are at fault for refusing to get prepared, but I just couldn’t turn them out into the street.
If you also plan to assist those around you that are in need, that just makes your job even bigger. In the end, there is a limit to what any of us can do, and so we will do what we can with what we have and we will leave the rest to God.
The overwhelming demand that we are witnessing at food banks around the nation right now gives us some clues about what we can expect as economic conditions get even worse. In Alameda County, vehicles are lining up “as early as seven in the morning” just to get a little bit of food from the local food banks…
“They start lining up as early as seven in the morning and this will run for six straight hours” said Altfest. Hundreds of cars slowly snake their way through the parking lot across from the Acura dealership on Interstate 880. Folks from all walks of life driving everything from Toyota’s, BMW’s, to Mercedes, all coming to get food. Folks are grateful for the charity.
When I read that quote from a local CBS news report, it struck me that it sounded almost exactly like what Heidi Baker said when she saw people waiting in line to get food…
And I saw all these people and they had beautiful cars, 4 by 4’s and Lexus, Mercedez, BMW’s, Toyotas. There they were with fancy shiny cars, but they were standing in line.
On the east coast we are seeing similar things happen.
In fact, there was a quarter-mile line at the break of dawn at a food bank in Queens on Saturday…
The line stretched a quarter-mile before the sun was barely up Saturday, snaking around corners like bread lines in the 1930s. But the hungry in Queens are today’s New Yorkers, left jobless by the coronavirus. Until the pandemic struck the city, La Jornada food pantry used to hand out groceries to roughly 1,000 families a week. Now, the figure tops 10,000. And volunteers serve lunch every day to 1,000 — many of them kids with growling stomachs. Across the five boroughs, the hungry number in the hundreds of thousands, the Food Bank of New York estimates.
I found it quite interesting that the New York Post is comparing what is happening now to the “bread lines in the 1930s”.
This is the reality of what we are facing people. So many people are already in desperate need, and this “perfect storm” is just getting started.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the Richmond, Virginia area things are even worse. According to one recent report, vehicles have been lining up at one food bank “as early as six hours” before it opens…
Every Friday, cars line up as early as six hours before the food bank on Iron Bridge Road opens the drive-thru. At noon, the first 20 cars or so are allowed to park in the parking lot where they wait another three hours. Once 3 p.m. hits, the operation begins with a slew of volunteers working in the warehouse to fill grocery carts with fresh fruits and vegetables, dairy products, meat, prepared foods and nonperishable items.
Can you imagine sitting in your vehicle for six hours waiting for a food bank to open?
This is how desperate some people in America have already become.
And as I noted at the beginning of this article, the United Nations is using the word “biblical” to describe the famine and starvation that are coming all around the world. The following comes from CNBC…
Famines of “biblical proportions” are becoming a serious risk as the coronavirus crisis threatens to double the number of people nearing starvation, a U.N. body has warned. In projections released Tuesday, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) predicted that the number of people facing “acute food insecurity” stood to rise to 265 million by the end of this year, up from 135 million in 2019.
I don’t know about you, but I find that warning to be quite sobering.
In a “worst-case scenario”, the UN projects that “about a tenth of the world’s population won’t have enough to eat this year”…
Initial United Nations forecasts show that in a worst-case scenario, about a tenth of the world’s population won’t have enough to eat this year. The impact will go beyond just hunger as millions more are also likely to experience other forms of food insecurity, including not being able to afford healthy diets, which can lead to malnutrition and obesity.
Sadly, even though we have already seen so many crazy things happen in 2020, most Americans are still not prepping.
And so when things really start to unravel in a major way, most of them are going to be short on food and supplies very rapidly.
The other day I was interviewed by Dr. Steve Greene, and we discussed some of the reasons why the troubles that we have experienced so far are just the tip of the iceberg.
So much more is coming, but most people don’t want to hear that.
Most Americans still want to believe that the future is going to be just wonderful, and so they see absolutely no need to prepare for the chaotic times that are approaching.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--When Will Economy Survive Without Fiscal Stimulus

One of the biggest questions in economics is determining when the economy will be able to survive on its own without fiscal stimulus .
That ’ s important because getting legislation passed has been tough .
If the GOP wins the Senate , it will stay tough because Congress will be divided .
There is about a 50 % chance the GOP wins this November .
We don ’ t need to ask if the economy can survive without zero percent rates because we know the Fed is more than willing to oblige with that .
We won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without stimulus in the July PCE report , since unemployment benefits were still given out in that month .
The unemployment insurance boost and the CARES act paid $ 9 billion more than people lost in wages ; the money went disproportionately to poor people .
It was probably one of the best recessionary fiscal policies ever .
The chart below shows the impacts on personal income each month .
Some of the handoff had already taken place in July from the government to the private sector as compensation drove income growth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 150 billion increase in compensation was offset by a $ 105 billion decline in unemployment benefits .
Personal income was up 0.4 % monthly which was up from -1 % and beat estimates for -0.2 % .
Disposable income growth was 0.2 % ; its still above pre-COVID-19 levels .
Real disposable income was down 0.1 % .
The chart below shows the decomposition of changes to disposable income from before the pandemic ( February ) to July .
As you can see , income is $ 376 higher .
Unemployment insurance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by $ 873 , while wages and salaries hurt income by $ 495 .
This is on a per household basis .
Obviously , there are wide variations between those with a household where someone lost their job and households where no one lost their job .
Besides the fact that the consumer can ’ t solely rely on the government forever and that Congress has a tough time agreeing to legislation , public sector support is bad because consumers are less likely to spend the money they are given because they assume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is why there wasn ’ t an immediate crash when the $ 600 in weekly unemployment benefits went away .
People saved the money .
As more people get their jobs back , the savings rate will fall .
We want the savings rate to fall because consumers are more confident , not because their income is so low they can ’ t afford to save .
As you can see from the chart below , the savings rate fell 1.4 % to 17.8 % which is still historically high .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year .
The other aspect boosting savings is that people are still limited on what they can do because of COVID-19 .
Wealthy people are taking less vacations for example .
Consumer spending growth was 1.9 % which beat estimates for 1.5 % and fell from 6.2 % ( tough comp ) .
Real spending was up 1.6 % .
The chart below shows the massive changes to how people spent their money since the before the pandemic ( February ) .
Spending on goods is 7 % higher , while spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Overall spending is down 5 % which contrasts with the higher income from before the pandemic .
Consumers still have fire power .
Some of that may have been used in August as benefits fell .
Some of the categories that got hit the hardest rebounded sharply this summer .
Clothing and footwear went from down 45 % in April to down 1 % in July .
Since we already got the August Conference Board consumer confidence reading , we knew the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index would be weak as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the chart below .
The sentiment index rose from 72.8 to 74.1 which beat the highest estimate which was 73 .
The bar had been lowered .
Current conditions rose a tick to 82.9 and expectations rose from 65.9 to 68.5 .
9 in 10 consumers described the current economy negatively in August .
The good news is half of consumers expected an improvement in the next year .
62 % of consumers said the economy was best described as unfavorable .
Low Income Doing The Best ?
As you can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the week of August 16th was 4.6 % below where it was in January .
Low income spending is back to even .
That doesn ’ t mean low income people are doing the best .
They certainly were helped the most by fiscal stimulus .
However , a greater percentage of their income is spent on necessities .
That means they have less room to cut spending when they aren ’ t confident .
This isn ’ t like rich people who pared back on discretionary travel expenses .
Middle income @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income spending was down more than 4.6 % .
Headline PCE inflation was 1 % which was up from 0.9 % .
Core PCE inflation rose from 1.1 % to 1.3 % .
That ’ s just after the Fed said it wouldn ’ t mind if inflation got above 2 % .
That ’ s wishful thinking .
We will probably only see above 2 % core inflation next year when the deepest declines in 2020 are lapped .
As you can see from the chart below , Oxford Economics doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ above 2 % in the near future .
In the past 5 years , core PCE inflation has been above 2 % for 8 months .
That means it was below the target 87 % of the time .
On a yearly basis , since 2007 , the average core inflation rate has been at or above 2 % once which was 2018 .
The Fed realizes inflation just getting to its 2 % goal shouldn ’ t catalyze rate hikes because the average is still far below 2 % .
The Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last cycle when inflation was temporarily at its target .
Even though in July people were still getting the $ 600 in weekly unemployment insurance , we saw the private sector start to take the hand-off from the government which is a good sign .
Consumer spending in many of the hardest hit categories is starting to come back .
Consumer sentiment is still weak , but consumers think the next year will be better .
Low income spending is fully back .
Core inflation increased to 1.3 % which is still below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed isn ’ t going to hike rates right away if inflation gets to its 2 % target .

by UPFINA
One of the biggest questions in economics is determining when the economy will be able to survive on its own without fiscal stimulus. That’s important because getting legislation passed has been tough. If the GOP wins the Senate, it will stay tough because Congress will be divided. There is about a 50% chance the GOP wins this November. We don’t need to ask if the economy can survive without zero percent rates because we know the Fed is more than willing to oblige with that. We won’t find out if the economy can survive without stimulus in the July PCE report, since unemployment benefits were still given out in that month.
The unemployment insurance boost and the CARES act paid $9 billion more than people lost in wages; the money went disproportionately to poor people. It was probably one of the best recessionary fiscal policies ever. The chart below shows the impacts on personal income each month. Some of the handoff had already taken place in July from the government to the private sector as compensation drove income growth. Income rose $70 billion as a $150 billion increase in compensation was offset by a $105 billion decline in unemployment benefits.
Disposable Income Changes
Personal income was up 0.4% monthly which was up from -1% and beat estimates for -0.2%. Disposable income growth was 0.2%; its still above pre-COVID-19 levels. Real disposable income was down 0.1%. The chart below shows the decomposition of changes to disposable income from before the pandemic (February) to July. As you can see, income is $376 higher.
Monthly compensation (wages, salaries, benefits) fell by an average of $574 per household between February and July. Proprietor income fell by an additional $131 per household. Unemployment insurance with the $600/week FPUC fully offset these falls. pic.twitter.com/TVYr5nvCRc — Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) August 28, 2020
Unemployment insurance saved the day as it helped income by $873, while wages and salaries hurt income by $495. This is on a per household basis. Obviously, there are wide variations between those with a household where someone lost their job and households where no one lost their job.
Savings Rate Falls (It’s Still Very High)
Besides the fact that the consumer can’t solely rely on the government forever and that Congress has a tough time agreeing to legislation, public sector support is bad because consumers are less likely to spend the money they are given because they assume it won’t last. This is why there wasn’t an immediate crash when the $600 in weekly unemployment benefits went away. People saved the money. As more people get their jobs back, the savings rate will fall. We want the savings rate to fall because consumers are more confident, not because their income is so low they can’t afford to save.
As you can see from the chart below, the savings rate fell 1.4% to 17.8% which is still historically high. It’s higher than any point prior to this year. The other aspect boosting savings is that people are still limited on what they can do because of COVID-19. Wealthy people are taking less vacations for example.
Changes To Spending
Consumer spending growth was 1.9% which beat estimates for 1.5% and fell from 6.2% (tough comp). Real spending was up 1.6%. The chart below shows the massive changes to how people spent their money since the before the pandemic (February).
Household spending has made a strong recovery from its April trough, but the nature of the rebound is unique to the Global Coronavirus Recession: – spending on goods 7% higher than pre-#COVIDー19
– spending on services 10% lower Overall, spending still only 95% of pre-Covid pic.twitter.com/Ng9BTFBcHz — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) August 28, 2020
Spending on goods is 7% higher, while spending on services is 10% lower. Overall spending is down 5% which contrasts with the higher income from before the pandemic. Consumers still have fire power. Some of that may have been used in August as benefits fell. Some of the categories that got hit the hardest rebounded sharply this summer. Clothing and footwear went from down 45% in April to down 1% in July.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Consumer Sentiment Stays Weak
Since we already got the August Conference Board consumer confidence reading, we knew the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index would be weak as well. You can see the two readings in the chart below. The sentiment index rose from 72.8 to 74.1 which beat the highest estimate which was 73. The bar had been lowered. Current conditions rose a tick to 82.9 and expectations rose from 65.9 to 68.5.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index +1.6ppt to 74.1 in August:
– Current conditions +0.1pptto 82.9
– Expectations +2.6ppt to 68.5 "Consumer sentiment has remained trendless in the same depressed range it has traveled during the past five months." Richard Curtin pic.twitter.com/JHQYbYhY46 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) August 28, 2020
9 in 10 consumers described the current economy negatively in August. The good news is half of consumers expected an improvement in the next year. 62% of consumers said the economy was best described as unfavorable.
Low Income Doing The Best?
As you can see from the chart below, consumer spending in the week of August 16th was 4.6% below where it was in January.
Low income spending is back to even. That doesn’t mean low income people are doing the best. They certainly were helped the most by fiscal stimulus. However, a greater percentage of their income is spent on necessities. That means they have less room to cut spending when they aren’t confident. This isn’t like rich people who pared back on discretionary travel expenses. Middle income spending was down 3.5% and upper income spending was down more than 4.6%.
Inflation Increases, But Stays Low
Headline PCE inflation was 1% which was up from 0.9%. Core PCE inflation rose from 1.1% to 1.3%. That’s just after the Fed said it wouldn’t mind if inflation got above 2%. That’s wishful thinking. We will probably only see above 2% core inflation next year when the deepest declines in 2020 are lapped.
As you can see from the chart below, Oxford Economics doesn’t see core PCE inflation staying sustainably above 2% in the near future.
Wild swings in #inflation over recent months, but the dislocations from the Global Coronavirus Recession have mostly been disinflationary. Core PCE #inflation 1.3% y/y in July & not seen rising sustainably above 2% in near future. pic.twitter.com/5ti20BPgcB — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) August 28, 2020
In the past 5 years, core PCE inflation has been above 2% for 8 months. That means it was below the target 87% of the time. On a yearly basis, since 2007, the average core inflation rate has been at or above 2% once which was 2018. The Fed realizes inflation just getting to its 2% goal shouldn’t catalyze rate hikes because the average is still far below 2%. The Fed got too aggressive near the end of last cycle when inflation was temporarily at its target.
Conclusion
Even though in July people were still getting the $600 in weekly unemployment insurance, we saw the private sector start to take the hand-off from the government which is a good sign. Consumer spending in many of the hardest hit categories is starting to come back. Consumer sentiment is still weak, but consumers think the next year will be better. Low income spending is fully back. Core inflation increased to 1.3% which is still below the Fed’s goal. The Fed isn’t going to hike rates right away if inflation gets to its 2% target.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--September Is National Preparedness Month – You better shit some preparedness!

During National Preparedness Month , we pause to reflect on the importance of mitigating the effects of disasters and tragedies on our lives by devoting time and resources to being prepared .
As we observe National Preparedness Month this September , I encourage all Americans to take intentional , precautionary measures to ensure the resilience of their families , homes , communities , and businesses .
Over the last year , our Nation has endured and persevered through many threats .
Last week , hurricane Laura struck the Gulf Coast and affected the lives of millions in Louisiana , Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Administration is monitoring Federal response efforts and coordinating with State and local authorities to provide aid to the affected areas .
In recent months , we have also responded to the coronavirus pandemic with unparalleled vigor and resolve , leveraging historic partnerships between the public and private sectors to produce and provide needed medical equipment and to develop therapeutics and a vaccine .
We remain committed to safely reopening our country while protecting the most vulnerable among us .
We have also faced wildfires , earthquakes , and storms , including a devastating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year that spawned more than 120 tornadoes in the southeastern United States .
Despite the unprecedented nature and scope of the challenges we have faced , the American people have remained resolute in their determination to overcome any adversity .
My Administration will continue to work with State , local , tribal , and territorial partners to ensure the country is prepared to meet any challenges that may arise .
National Preparedness Month is also an opportunity to reiterate our gratitude for the selfless service of the brave men and women who help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ action when they strike .
Our first responders , critical infrastructure and other frontline workers , and disaster response volunteers often take great personal risks to perform their duties .
These patriots are essential to the security of our Nation , and we remain committed to supporting them in their mission .
Promoting a culture of resilience through preparedness helps enable communities and individuals to take the preparatory actions necessary to overcome the threats and hazards that present themselves .
The Federal Emergency Management Agency ’ s Ready Campaign , which can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all Americans prepare for crisis situations .
This easy-to‑use response can help individuals and families create an emergency fund for unexpected expenses , set up a designated shelter area within a home , subscribe to local emergency alerts on mobile devices , and determine a reliable out-of-town contact during times of crisis .
By taking these steps , people can mitigate damage and speed up recovery efforts across the country when disaster strikes .
During National Preparedness Month , I encourage all Americans to adopt a proactive mindset and take the necessary steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ withstand and recover from unexpected events .
We can not always know when the next crisis will occur , but we can know that we will be prepared by committing ourselves to a culture of resilience .
NOW , THEREFORE , I , DONALD J. TRUMP , President of the United States of America , by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States , do hereby proclaim September 2020 as National Preparedness Month .
I encourage all Americans , including Federal , State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take action to be prepared for a disaster or an emergency by making and practicing their emergency response plans .
Each step we take to become better prepared makes a real difference in how our families and communities will respond and persevere when faced with the unexpected .
IN WITNESS WHEREOF , I have hereunto set my hand this thirty-first day of August , in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty , and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-fifth .
DONALD J.
@

During National Preparedness Month, we pause to reflect on the importance of mitigating the effects of disasters and tragedies on our lives by devoting time and resources to being prepared. As we observe National Preparedness Month this September, I encourage all Americans to take intentional, precautionary measures to ensure the resilience of their families, homes, communities, and businesses.
Over the last year, our Nation has endured and persevered through many threats. Last week, hurricane Laura struck the Gulf Coast and affected the lives of millions in Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi. My Administration is monitoring Federal response efforts and coordinating with State and local authorities to provide aid to the affected areas. In recent months, we have also responded to the coronavirus pandemic with unparalleled vigor and resolve, leveraging historic partnerships between the public and private sectors to produce and provide needed medical equipment and to develop therapeutics and a vaccine. We remain committed to safely reopening our country while protecting the most vulnerable among us. We have also faced wildfires, earthquakes, and storms, including a devastating weather system on Easter Sunday of this year that spawned more than 120 tornadoes in the southeastern United States. Despite the unprecedented nature and scope of the challenges we have faced, the American people have remained resolute in their determination to overcome any adversity. My Administration will continue to work with State, local, tribal, and territorial partners to ensure the country is prepared to meet any challenges that may arise.
National Preparedness Month is also an opportunity to reiterate our gratitude for the selfless service of the brave men and women who help prepare our Nation for disasters and take action when they strike. Our first responders, critical infrastructure and other frontline workers, and disaster response volunteers often take great personal risks to perform their duties. These patriots are essential to the security of our Nation, and we remain committed to supporting them in their mission.
Promoting a culture of resilience through preparedness helps enable communities and individuals to take the preparatory actions necessary to overcome the threats and hazards that present themselves. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Ready Campaign, which can be found by accessing Ready.gov, can help all Americans prepare for crisis situations. This easy-to‑use response can help individuals and families create an emergency fund for unexpected expenses, set up a designated shelter area within a home, subscribe to local emergency alerts on mobile devices, and determine a reliable out-of-town contact during times of crisis. By taking these steps, people can mitigate damage and speed up recovery efforts across the country when disaster strikes.
During National Preparedness Month, I encourage all Americans to adopt a proactive mindset and take the necessary steps to prepare their families and communities to withstand and recover from unexpected events. We cannot always know when the next crisis will occur, but we can know that we will be prepared by committing ourselves to a culture of resilience.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim September 2020 as National Preparedness Month. I encourage all Americans, including Federal, State, tribal, and local officials, to take action to be prepared for a disaster or an emergency by making and practicing their emergency response plans. Each step we take to become better prepared makes a real difference in how our families and communities will respond and persevere when faced with the unexpected.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this
thirty-first day of August, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-fifth.
DONALD J. TRUMP


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--BLM inc. threatening to “rip the president out of the White House”

BLM inc. threatening to “ rip the president out of the White House ” They say they won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ .
This is domestic terrorism on full display , out in the open .
They @ @ @ @ @ to hide it .
pic.twitter.com/OyhNSzBEwu

BLM inc. threatening to “rip the president out of the White House”
They say they won’t wait until the next election.
They’re openly calling for a revolution.
This is domestic terrorism on full display, out in the open. They don’t even try to hide it. pic.twitter.com/OyhNSzBEwu
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 29, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--RETURN Of The Wild Wild West? Independence Is Rising From The Ashes Of TYRANNY!

by Josh Sigurdson with Tim Picciott via World Alternative Media Josh Sigurdson talks with Tim Picciott , The Liberty Advisor @ @ @ @ @ the center of the wild west boom town made famous by cowboys , The OK @ @ @ @ @ Doc Holiday .
A town that has maintained its independent attitude despite the tourism that @ @ @ @ @ .
There is clearly something in the air .
With the rise of tyranny comes @ @ @ @ @ those who just want to be left alone as free human beings .
Despite the @ @ @ @ @ methods of self defense are flying off the shelves .
RVs are going out of @ @ @ @ @ selling out everywhere .
This is a pretty incredible sign going forward and it really @ @ @ @ @ being outside of big cities can be .
Are we going to see the new @ @ @ @ @ again ?
It appears it ’ s beginning to happen .
Stay tuned for more @ @ @

by Josh Sigurdson with Tim Picciott via World Alternative Media
Josh Sigurdson talks with Tim Picciott, The Liberty Advisor in Tombstone, Arizona from the center of the wild west boom town made famous by cowboys, The OK Corral, Wyatt Earp and Doc Holiday. A town that has maintained its independent attitude despite the tourism that flows through it each year.
There is clearly something in the air. With the rise of tyranny comes the rise of independence among those who just want to be left alone as free human beings.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Despite the insane actions of government, methods of self defense are flying off the shelves. RVs are going out of stock. Fishing rods are selling out everywhere. This is a pretty incredible sign going forward and it really goes to show how effective being outside of big cities can be.
Are we going to see the new rise of the Wild West again? It appears it’s beginning to happen.
Stay tuned for more from WAM!


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--Uh Oh 60% increase in African American support for Donald J. Trump in just two weeks

Somebody has figured out they are being used by democrats/ANTIFA !
Biden Lead revised , Trump now leads by 53 @ @ @ @ @

Somebody has figured out they are being used by democrats/ANTIFA!
Biden Lead revised, Trump now leads by 53% among suburban voters.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Vote No to left wing radical violent ungodly terrorists
h/t Jake


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--50k to 1M. Thank you daddy Musk!

50k to 1M. Thank you daddy Musk!

Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information @ @ @ @ @ you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by twistedtarsky
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--TSLA is now the seventh-largest company via Market Cap : $462 Billion & Climbing

TSLA is now the *seventh-largest company via Market Cap in the US ( $ 452 Billion ) .
Here are @ @ @ @ @ this is the trend : As of this moment , 8/31/2020 – 2:10 PM CST @ @ @ @ @ 461 Billion .

TSLA is now the *seventh-largest company via Market Cap in the US ($452 Billion). Here are the other 9 – Link
this is the trend:
March 18, 2020 – 66 Billion
April 20, 2020 – 138 Billion
May 20, 2020 – 151 Billion
June 19, 2020 – 186 Billion
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
July 20, 2020 – 305 Billion
August 20, 2020 – 372 Billion
As of this moment, 8/31/2020 – 2:10 PM CST – It is around $461 Billion.
(Here is the source for the Market Cap Trend – www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/market-cap )
h/t rsoni1997


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--The Real Reason Berkshire Hathaway does not Pay a Dividend.

Sitting atop a cash pile of over $ 100 billion dollars , Warren Buffet is often asked why Berkshire Hathaway does not pay a dividend .
The standard answer for the past thirty or forty years has been that Berkshire ’ s cash pile would be better spent on either acquisitions or share buybacks .
While there is certainly truth to this statement , there is a bigger reason for the lack of a Berkshire yield .
Warren Buffett personally owns approximately 250,000 shares of Class A Berkshire stock .
Often Buffett has been quoted as saying he has “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” If this is true , that would indicate that in the process of building up his multi-billion-dollar fortune , Buffett has never paid any income taxes on his Berkshire shares .
Assuming Buffett does not , or has not , ever personally sold any Berkshire shares , that would mean he is not only a savvy investor but also the undisputed master of the unrealized gain .
Warren has often said he draws a yearly salary of $ 100,000 from Berkshire Hathaway .
Assuming his Berkshire salary is accurate and he has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is likely that Buffett ( a multi-billionaire ) pays nearly the same amount of income taxes as you or I .
A Berkshire dividend would be exceptionally detrimental to Buffett ’ s income tax bill .
A quick calculation to demonstrate : A 5 % yield on Berkshire “ A ” shares for 1 year would yield ( for Buffett ) approximately : $ 4,087,500,000 A 20 % capital gain tax on his dividend would result in a personal tax bill of approximately : $ 817,500,000 With Berkshire paying a 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end up with a near $ 1 billion tax bill , he would also have to find a place to invest nearly $ 3 billion of his after-tax dividend income ( every year ) .
This clearly demonstrates why he prefers share buybacks over dividend payouts .
Buffett is a multi-billionaire and he certainly did not get there by accident .
As a result of ( arguably ) the greatest ( legal ) tax avoidance scheme in the history of modern American business , Buffett has painted himself into a corner when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dividend .
Berkshire investors can pretty near be guaranteed Berkshire Hathaway will never pay a divided as long as Buffett is alive and holding his shares .
We will , however , very likely see a Berkshire yield upon Buffett ’ s exit from the business world .

by sellonexpiryday
Sitting atop a cash pile of over $100 billion dollars, Warren Buffet is often asked why Berkshire Hathaway does not pay a dividend. The standard answer for the past thirty or forty years has been that Berkshire’s cash pile would be better spent on either acquisitions or share buybacks. While there is certainly truth to this statement, there is a bigger reason for the lack of a Berkshire yield.
Warren Buffett personally owns approximately 250,000 shares of Class A Berkshire stock. Often Buffett has been quoted as saying he has “never sold a share of Berkshire Hathaway.” If this is true, that would indicate that in the process of building up his multi-billion-dollar fortune, Buffett has never paid any income taxes on his Berkshire shares. Assuming Buffett does not, or has not, ever personally sold any Berkshire shares, that would mean he is not only a savvy investor but also the undisputed master of the unrealized gain.
Warren has often said he draws a yearly salary of $100,000 from Berkshire Hathaway. Assuming his Berkshire salary is accurate and he has little else for additional income coming in, it is likely that Buffett (a multi-billionaire) pays nearly the same amount of income taxes as you or I. A Berkshire dividend would be exceptionally detrimental to Buffett’s income tax bill. A quick calculation to demonstrate:
(all numbers very approximate for demonstration purposes)
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Number of “A” shares owned by Buffett: 250,000
A 5% yield on Berkshire “A” shares for 1 year would yield (for Buffett) approximately: $4,087,500,000
A 20% capital gain tax on his dividend would result in a personal tax bill of approximately: $817,500,000
With Berkshire paying a 5% yield, not only would Buffett end up with a near $1 billion tax bill, he would also have to find a place to invest nearly $3 billion of his after-tax dividend income (every year). This clearly demonstrates why he prefers share buybacks over dividend payouts.
Buffett is a multi-billionaire and he certainly did not get there by accident. As a result of (arguably) the greatest (legal) tax avoidance scheme in the history of modern American business, Buffett has painted himself into a corner when it comes to the payment of a Berkshire dividend. Berkshire investors can pretty near be guaranteed Berkshire Hathaway will never pay a divided as long as Buffett is alive and holding his shares. We will, however, very likely see a Berkshire yield upon Buffett’s exit from the business world.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--The betting markets now have the Presidential race at basically even odds.

The betting markets now have the Presidential race at basically even odds .
pic.twitter.com/7JdAI5FbOS

The betting markets now have the Presidential race at basically even odds. pic.twitter.com/7JdAI5FbOS
— Jonesy (@HedgeyeDJ) August 31, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--We need just one more day with a 0.5% gain on the Nasdaq while most of its stocks are sliding. That’

We need just one more day with a 0.5% gain on the Nasdaq while most of its stocks are sliding. That’d match December 1999 for the best envy-thy-neighbor market ever.

Fed ’ s Bostic : Recovery to Be Slower Than Expected The United States ’ economic recovery from the coronavirus-caused @ @ @ @ @ but it will take “ a lot longer than people expected , ” Federal Reserve @ @ @ @ @ Atlan… Permanent Layoffs Soar , and It Will Get Worse GM Resorts International and Stanley @ @ @ @ @ told some employees furloughed at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic that they wouldn ’ @ @ @ @ @ the payroll .

We need just one more day with a 0.5% gain on the Nasdaq while most of its stocks are sliding. That'd match December 1999 for the best envy-thy-neighbor market ever. pic.twitter.com/pH9RxDzsjY — SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) August 31, 2020
Tesla seen here helping achieve the Fed's hyperinflation mandate pic.twitter.com/0gJ131HoCu — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 31, 2020
This is perfect t.co/xlapF1rJTY — Dereck Coatney (@DereckCoatney) August 31, 2020
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in July t.co/VAHnCCRzwO Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. pic.twitter.com/TDgfgaKRyH — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 31, 2020
The United States’ economic recovery from the coronavirus-caused crisis “is happening” but it will take “a lot longer than people expected,” Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Atlan…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
GM Resorts International and Stanley Black & Decker Inc. recently told some employees furloughed at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic that they wouldn’t be put back on the payroll.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--Berkshire Hathaway and the incredible power of float

Today we ’ re going to talk about float , what it is and how you can build billion-dollar companies with it .
Float is the money that a business receives today but doesn ’ t have to pay out until sometime in the future .
Float is most commonly seen in insurance companies with customers paying premiums upfront to insure themselves against bad things happening sometime in the future .
More examples include : Video game publishers , where they receive pre-orders .
Commercial banking when they receive deposits and so on .
Why is receiving money upfront so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paid at later date ?
Well , you can invest it !
And the longer you have to invest it , the more likely it will grow larger than the amount that you will have to eventually pay out !
So , you can see how easily this can snowball .
Say I owned a tiny insurance business that insured $ 1,000 worth of damages for a year in exchange for a $ 100 upfront payment .
If I have $ 10,000 in the bank I can safely have say , five customers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 500 .
Every year I can invest the money I got from those new customers and every year the cash I have grows so I can safely insure more customers and the cash you have grows in an exponential manner .
Ok cool got it .
So , what does this have to do with Berkshire Hathaway ?
Sometime around the mid-1960s Mr. Buffett realized , with the help of his friend Charlie Munger , that he can ’ t keep investing in broken down businesses and had to instead look for “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compound his hard earned capital through thick and thin .
The next thing he realized is that he couldn ’ t just rely on the free cash flow generated from those company ’ s and had to instead find low cost financing for his acquisitions .
That low cost financing came in the form of an insurance float which , as we ’ ve seen , are the premiums paid by insurance customers up front in order to be paid out by the insurance company later .
Buffett bought a ton of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1967 Wait , why did we just say that float is low cost financing ?
Why is it financing and what is the cost of that financing ?
Well , float is financing because you are receiving money today , but you have to pay it out sometime in the future , exactly like a loan .
The beauty of float though is that you don ’ t have to pay interest on that money !
The only “ interest ” that you have to pay on that money is the normal cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve already seen why float would matter so much to Buffett , but it bears repeating .
A dollar you receive today is worth more than a dollar you get a week from now because you can invest it at some rate to receive more money in the future .
Buffet realized that the more float he had , the more float he could invest to buy other businesses .
Float would compound in lockstep with the free-cashflow generated by his other businesses and in time create a juggernaut .
The final step @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the duration of time between when the premiums are received and when they ’ re paid out .
So , for Buffett , this meant buying up longer tailed insurance companies like insurance for catastrophes , and recently , Reinsurance companies .
And there you have it !
This is the basic DNA of one the most successful stocks in over the past 50 years and they ’ re still going at it .

by InvestingExplained
Today we’re going to talk about float, what it is and how you can build billion-dollar companies with it. Float is the money that a business receives today but doesn’t have to pay out until sometime in the future. Float is most commonly seen in insurance companies with customers paying premiums upfront to insure themselves against bad things happening sometime in the future. More examples include: Video game publishers, where they receive pre-orders. Commercial banking when they receive deposits and so on.
Why is receiving money upfront so valuable even when it needs to be paid at later date? Well, you can invest it! And the longer you have to invest it, the more likely it will grow larger than the amount that you will have to eventually pay out! So, you can see how easily this can snowball. Say I owned a tiny insurance business that insured $1,000 worth of damages for a year in exchange for a $100 upfront payment. If I have $10,000 in the bank I can safely have say, five customers insured like this every year for $500. Every year I can invest the money I got from those new customers and every year the cash I have grows so I can safely insure more customers and the cash you have grows in an exponential manner. Ok cool got it. So, what does this have to do with Berkshire Hathaway?
Sometime around the mid-1960s Mr. Buffett realized, with the help of his friend Charlie Munger, that he can’t keep investing in broken down businesses and had to instead look for “franchise” business that will continue to compound his hard earned capital through thick and thin. The next thing he realized is that he couldn’t just rely on the free cash flow generated from those company’s and had to instead find low cost financing for his acquisitions. That low cost financing came in the form of an insurance float which, as we’ve seen, are the premiums paid by insurance customers up front in order to be paid out by the insurance company later. Buffett bought a ton of these insurance companies starting with National Indemnity in 1967
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Wait, why did we just say that float is low cost financing? Why is it financing and what is the cost of that financing? Well, float is financing because you are receiving money today, but you have to pay it out sometime in the future, exactly like a loan. The beauty of float though is that you don’t have to pay interest on that money! The only “interest” that you have to pay on that money is the normal cost of operating your business.
We’ve already seen why float would matter so much to Buffett, but it bears repeating. A dollar you receive today is worth more than a dollar you get a week from now because you can invest it at some rate to receive more money in the future. Buffet realized that the more float he had, the more float he could invest to buy other businesses. Float would compound in lockstep with the free-cashflow generated by his other businesses and in time create a juggernaut.
The final step in the Berkshire secret formula was increasing the duration of time between when the premiums are received and when they’re paid out. So, for Buffett, this meant buying up longer tailed insurance companies like insurance for catastrophes, and recently, Reinsurance companies. And there you have it! This is the basic DNA of one the most successful stocks in over the past 50 years and they’re still going at it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--The last time voters elected a Republican mayor:

But Democrats want to blame President Trump for crime in these cities ?

The last time voters elected a Republican mayor:
Seattle – 1964
Minneapolis – 1957
Portland – 1952
Chicago – 1927
Washington, D.C. – NEVER
But Democrats want to blame President Trump for crime in these cities?
— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) August 31, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-01--VIDEO: Massive Joe Biden Rally With High Energy Has Trump Supporters Worried?

Wow !
they number in the dozens !

As @JoeBiden wraps up the crowd outside cheers. pic.twitter.com/cpW8bXARLq — Tom Davidson (@TribDavidson) August 31, 2020
Wow! they number in the dozens!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t dr0id