investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Worse Than The Financial Crisis

Worse Than The Financial Crisis

Most of the official economic data has been okay even though COVID-19 is ravaging the country as hospitalizations are nearing the spring peak ( adjusted for some states not reporting in the spring ) and deaths are nearing the summer peak .
Our biggest worry is the 13.5 million people on pandemic unemployment benefits being thrown off at the end of the year without an extension .
It will be far too late for them if we need to wait until after inauguration day on January 20th .
The good news is the vaccines could end this virus next year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company that is working on the vaccine with Pfizer , stated , “ If the question is whether we can stop this pandemic with this vaccine , then my answer is : yes , because I believe that even protection only from symptomatic infections will have a dramatic effect.
” We aren ’ t experts on this field , so we will leave this quote without further commentary .
Before we review the latest economic data , recognize that the stock market doesn ’ t care if the virus is bad this fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care about how the economy does in the near term .
The only thing that would scare investors would be a delay in vaccine production .
However , with Moderna ’ s latest good news on its vaccine , the risk of production woes has diminished .
The difference between now and March is we have much less uncertainty .
Don ’ t be tricked into thinking another 30 % crash is coming because the virus is getting worse .
Find us anyone who thinks the virus won ’ t be bad in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agrees with you , how can your call for a crash be right ?
Even though most official data has been good , we are finally starting to see cracks in consumer spending via high frequency data .
The slight weakness is being followed closely because it has been anticipated due to the spread of the virus .
As you can see from the chart below , Chase spending growth nearly rose to 0 % in the 2nd half of October ; it fell to -7.4 % in the week of November 9th @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it should , it spells bad news for the holiday shopping season .
No stimulus is coming by the end of the year .
At best we can hope for pandemic benefits to be extended .
Spending at restaurants was down 16 % yearly while spending at wholesale and discount stores was up 24.2 % .
That differential will shrink when the economy reopens .
Spending at gas stations was down 25.3 % as mobility is declining again .
Spending at airlines was down 77.8 % .
Boeing stock is up 29.6 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t care about the data in the next few weeks .
We can ’ t expect a weak holiday shopping season to cause stocks to crash , but some individual stocks might react to weak earnings .
Looking at some individual states , the chart on the top right shows Illinois had a 6.3 % decline in spending , while Texas and Georgia had declines of 2.2 % and 2.1 % .
It makes sense a Midwestern state is seeing the worst decline ( out of the six listed ) because that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the worst .
Millennials/Gen Z are spending much more than Boomers because older people are more at risk from the virus .
Spending among Millennials/Gen Z in Texas is up 4.7 % ; spending is down 9.8 % among Boomers in New York .
States with low unemployment claims had a 4 % decline and states with high claims had a 5.9 % decline .
People are probably pulling back on spending more because of fear than from actual job loss .
It makes sense to save money in such an uncertain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is uncertain for consumers who might lose their jobs , their benefits , or get sick .
Corporations are fine because they can easily weather one more bad quarter .
The capital markets will give them money if they need it .
That ’ s a different story for small businesses .
After a few months of waiting for weakness in consumer sentiment , we finally got it in the November University of Michigan preliminary report .
We expected weakness starting in August when the extra jobless benefits expired .
Instead , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the weakness came from the spread of COVID-19 , but it was largely because of the election .
The consumer sentiment index fell from 81.8 to 77 which missed estimates for 82 and the lowest estimate which was 80 .
As you can see from the chart above , Republicans became much less confident and Democrats became slightly less confident .
The current index only fell 0.1 to 85.8 .
If recent rise in COVID-19 cases was hurting confidence , it would hurt the current index because people would be feeling the effects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t jive with the Chase data .
The expectations index fell from 79.2 to 71.3 because Republicans are less optimistic about the future .
The Democrats didn ’ t have a gain though because of worries about the virus .
59 % of Democrats said their normal life changed because of COVID-19 .
34 % of Republicans said it did .
The Democrats in the survey are more likely to become more negative because of the pandemic .
There would have been less of a decline in confidence in the overall index if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the election definitely played a bigger role in the weakness ( because of the GOP ) .
In both Europe and America , the labor force participation rate fell more than it did after the financial crisis .
In the financial crisis , women did better than men .
More men work in finance , so that may have played a part in that .
In this crisis , women have been hurt more because they are being forced to stay home with children who can ’ t go to school @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are more likely to work .
The stock market doesn ’ t care about the near term rise in virus cases because volatility comes because of fear/uncertainty and lack of liquidity , not temporary economic weakness .
People sold stocks in March because of uncertainty .
There is less uncertainty now because of the vaccine .
However , consumers are struggling .
They will have a very bad holiday season .
Deaths are increasing and spending is starting to weaken according the Chase data .
The consumer sentiment reading mostly fell because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the weakness came because of the pandemic .
This crisis caused a much larger decline in the labor force participation rate than the GCF .
It has been more damaging to women unlike the GCF .

by UPFINA
Most of the official economic data has been okay even though COVID-19 is ravaging the country as hospitalizations are nearing the spring peak (adjusted for some states not reporting in the spring) and deaths are nearing the summer peak. Our biggest worry is the 13.5 million people on pandemic unemployment benefits being thrown off at the end of the year without an extension. It will be far too late for them if we need to wait until after inauguration day on January 20th.
The good news is the vaccines could end this virus next year. The CEO of BioNTech, the company that is working on the vaccine with Pfizer, stated, “If the question is whether we can stop this pandemic with this vaccine, then my answer is: yes, because I believe that even protection only from symptomatic infections will have a dramatic effect.” We aren’t experts on this field, so we will leave this quote without further commentary.
Before we review the latest economic data, recognize that the stock market doesn’t care if the virus is bad this fall and winter. It doesn’t care about how the economy does in the near term. The only thing that would scare investors would be a delay in vaccine production. However, with Moderna’s latest good news on its vaccine, the risk of production woes has diminished. The difference between now and March is we have much less uncertainty. Don’t be tricked into thinking another 30% crash is coming because the virus is getting worse. Find us anyone who thinks the virus won’t be bad in the next 1-3 months. If everyone agrees with you, how can your call for a crash be right?
Chase Card Spending Growth Starts To Roll Over
Even though most official data has been good, we are finally starting to see cracks in consumer spending via high frequency data. The slight weakness is being followed closely because it has been anticipated due to the spread of the virus. As you can see from the chart below, Chase spending growth nearly rose to 0% in the 2nd half of October; it fell to -7.4% in the week of November 9th. If this trend continues, which it should, it spells bad news for the holiday shopping season. No stimulus is coming by the end of the year. At best we can hope for pandemic benefits to be extended.
Spending at restaurants was down 16% yearly while spending at wholesale and discount stores was up 24.2%. That differential will shrink when the economy reopens. Spending at gas stations was down 25.3% as mobility is declining again. Spending at airlines was down 77.8%. Boeing stock is up 29.6% since October 30th as the market doesn’t care about the data in the next few weeks. We can’t expect a weak holiday shopping season to cause stocks to crash, but some individual stocks might react to weak earnings.
Looking at some individual states, the chart on the top right shows Illinois had a 6.3% decline in spending, while Texas and Georgia had declines of 2.2% and 2.1%. It makes sense a Midwestern state is seeing the worst decline (out of the six listed) because that’s where the 3rd COVID-19 wave is the worst. Millennials/Gen Z are spending much more than Boomers because older people are more at risk from the virus. Spending among Millennials/Gen Z in Texas is up 4.7%; spending is down 9.8% among Boomers in New York. States with low unemployment claims had a 4% decline and states with high claims had a 5.9% decline.
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People are probably pulling back on spending more because of fear than from actual job loss. It makes sense to save money in such an uncertain time. To be clear, it is uncertain for consumers who might lose their jobs, their benefits, or get sick. Corporations are fine because they can easily weather one more bad quarter. The capital markets will give them money if they need it. That’s a different story for small businesses.
Consumer Sentiment Falls
After a few months of waiting for weakness in consumer sentiment, we finally got it in the November University of Michigan preliminary report. We expected weakness starting in August when the extra jobless benefits expired. Instead, we got in November. You would think the weakness came from the spread of COVID-19, but it was largely because of the election.
The consumer sentiment index fell from 81.8 to 77 which missed estimates for 82 and the lowest estimate which was 80. As you can see from the chart above, Republicans became much less confident and Democrats became slightly less confident. The current index only fell 0.1 to 85.8. If recent rise in COVID-19 cases was hurting confidence, it would hurt the current index because people would be feeling the effects of the virus. This doesn’t jive with the Chase data.
The expectations index fell from 79.2 to 71.3 because Republicans are less optimistic about the future. The Democrats didn’t have a gain though because of worries about the virus. 59% of Democrats said their normal life changed because of COVID-19. 34% of Republicans said it did. The Democrats in the survey are more likely to become more negative because of the pandemic. There would have been less of a decline in confidence in the overall index if it wasn’t for the virus, but the election definitely played a bigger role in the weakness (because of the GOP).
Big Drop In Participation Rate
In both Europe and America, the labor force participation rate fell more than it did after the financial crisis. In the financial crisis, women did better than men. More men work in finance, so that may have played a part in that. In this crisis, women have been hurt more because they are being forced to stay home with children who can’t go to school and because of layoffs in education where they are more likely to work.
Conclusion
The stock market doesn’t care about the near term rise in virus cases because volatility comes because of fear/uncertainty and lack of liquidity, not temporary economic weakness. People sold stocks in March because of uncertainty. There is less uncertainty now because of the vaccine. However, consumers are struggling. They will have a very bad holiday season. Deaths are increasing and spending is starting to weaken according the Chase data. The consumer sentiment reading mostly fell because of the election, but some of the weakness came because of the pandemic. This crisis caused a much larger decline in the labor force participation rate than the GCF. It has been more damaging to women unlike the GCF.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Travel Recovery writeups #3: Dufry AG

Travel Recovery writeups #3: Dufry AG

As the world ’ s largest operator of airport duty-free stores , Dufry ( $ DUFRY ) has suffered alongside previous businesses covered : Booking Holdings ( $ BKNG ) and Hostelworld Group ( $ HSWLF ) .
Unlike those businesses , Dufry is not a secular growth play , but a Cyclical .
Suppression of its valuation caused by the costs of expansion and slowing sales growth have been compounded by a collapse in global travel .
This likely forms a bottom in the cycle .
An enhanced financial position ; vectors enabling further Asian expansion ; and recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upswing .
Though stretched from its fundamentals , Dufry offers significant potential upside to investors banking on a travel recovery and willing to withstand short-term volatility as gravity returns to its valuation .
Figure 1 : Performance of Dufry AG visualised through annual revenue , operating profit , and share price performance over the past decade .
Source : Dufry AG financials and GuruFocus .
First , a short business overview .
Dufry operates mainly as an airport retailer , representing 88 % of 2019A revenues .
This article ’ s focus lies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” has centred on increasing scale via acquisitions , which has boosted airport retail market share to ~20 % .
This M & A push continues amid current challenges ; fully acquiring American-focussed unit , Hudson ( $ HUD ) , in August 2020 – signalling confidence or ego .
Beyond , management has set its sights on Asian growth , buoyed by Alibaba ’ s ( $ BABA ) recent 10 % stake .
There is a good reason for this , as Asian travel spend only grows in significance .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to double by 2025 .
Presently , its main geographic exposure is the Americas and Europe ; areas where air travel will take longest to recover .
Figure 1 shows increases in sales and profit have not been reflected in Dufry ’ s valuation , which is now at an ~70 % discount to its highs in 2017 .
There are several possible explanations .
Chiefly , growth in operating cashflows are being offset by financing costs incurred by their acquisition-heavy strategy .
Motive for consolidation is rational , as scale means Dufry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pricing and synergistic cost-benefits .
Yet , cost-cutting has only yielded a 1.61 % gross margin improvement from 2016-2020 .
Shareholders have yet to meaningfully benefit from their “ global ambition [ s ] ” .
An additional explanation for its persistent struggles is that Dufry , like almost all of retail , has a cyclical business .
I propose this was somewhat overlooked by past bullish coverage on Seeking Alpha .
Its cyclical nature means investors are constantly looking ahead .
As Peter Lynch writes : “ timing is everything with cyclicals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a sign that the ‘ recovery story ’ of this cyclical was over well before COVID-19 – perhaps this story now repeats itself .
Management expects sales to recover by 2022 and lays out three scenarios for 2020 : Best ( -40 % YoY ) , Base ( -55 % YoY ) , and Worst ( -70 % ) YoY .
A 2022 recovery seems unlikely , as the International Air Travel Association ( IATA ) forecasts a 2024 recovery in passengers .
Another variable is the premium investors are willing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ‘ uptrend ’ period ( 2010-2014 ) was higher than during the ‘ stagnation ’ ( 2015-2019 ) and ‘ downtrend ’ ( 2019-2020 ) periods .
Anticipation for the end of the business cycle explains these reductions in premia .
Expect higher premia being paid , should a recovery be conceivable .
These assumptions inform projections laid out in Figure 4 .
For Dufry , a recovery in its business and stock requires a revival in global air travel and travel spending .
Previously highlighted , a 2024 recovery in passengers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americas and Europe , accounting for 40 % and 44 % of 2019A sales , will lag on revised forecasts .
Concurrently , a -70 % change YoY in international arrivals is expected .
Domestic tourism has been a bright spot , but spending is significantly higher for international tourism – travel-related expenses disproportionately account towards this .
Aside from obvious uncertainties regarding the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines – and if this translates to traveller confidence – consumer strength during the ‘ recovery ’ phase is crucial .
Fortunately , consumer confidence has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Pent-up demand ” due to forced saving across Spring/Summer has led to positive surprises in economic data .
This may bode well for travel spending in 2021 , however , continued small-business struggles weigh on the incomes of the approximately 1 in 2 persons employed therein as well as the possibility of further lockdowns , remain .
So far , a picture is painted of short-term pain but long-term opportunity .
Yet , aside from the important and frequently quantified variables which will influence future valuations of Dufry , an esoteric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , what will airports look like ?
Airport design will no doubt radically change in the coming years .
Architecturally , space allotted to Check-In will decrease , as Security and Terminal become more spread out .
For Dufry , omnichannel strategies will become vital .
World Duty Free stores have begun to offer “ concierge ” services , where customers browse in-store and receive items delivered – where the Alibaba joint-venture is likely pivotal .
It is uncertain if customers will adopt this , but such a strategy seems apt following recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel recovers first .
Figure 3 : Table showing financial position of Dufry , regarding payment of liabilities .
Source : Author ’ s calculations .
It is unsurprising that Dufry turned to the financial market for support .
A recent rights issue raised CHF 820M , with Advent International and Alibaba receiving most equity .
Much of this cash will finance the CHF ~283M Hudson acquisition , with the rest there to steady the ship .
Dufry ’ s total liquidity now sits at CHF 2,065M .
In a scenario of -70 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ burn is estimated at CHF 60M per month .
Therefore , Dufry has conceivably approximately 34 months of liquidity at the current status quo .
Figure 2 shows a valuation using multiples and projected sales .
A more conservative DCF model is shown in Figure 4 and its assumptions in Figure 5 .
Figure 4 : Sensitivity analysis of outputs of discounted cash flow model of Dufry in a BULL scenario .
PV for BASE and BEAR are CHF 32 and CHF 28 , respectively .
Source : Author ’ s calculations .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 , Dufry is up approximately 30 % this week .
Encouraging COVID-19 vaccine developments from Pfizer ( $ PFE ) and BioNTech ( $ BNTX ) have spurred notion of a Travel & Tourism recovery .
The swiftness of this move means there is little to gain by chasing this rally .
Historically examining the speed of Dufry ’ s recovery in 2009 , conceivably there remains significant upside ( Figure 2 ) .
Yet , Figure 3 otherwise suggests that Dufry has become detached from its fundamentals and therefore presents minimal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In making conclusions about a business experiencing an “ event ” , it is wise to consider what we know and what we don ’ t know .
What we know : Operationally , a persistent management team means Dufry continues to eye expanding their global presence .
Asia is integral to this and Alibaba has recently acquired a 10 % stake , suggesting that initial steps are being taken .
Financially , its capitally intensive growth strategy coupled with the collapse in 2020 travel demand has necessitated recent capital raises by Dufry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has been used not only to shore up balance sheets but acquire smaller , struggling peers .
What we don ’ t know : Current sentiment leans toward a swift recovery in travel however it remains uncertain when passengers will be comfortable travelling again , and what form it takes .
Past articles published suggest vacation habits quickly resume after a shock but cash-strapped travellers may limit non-essential travel expenses – sadly that Lagavulin 16-year is superfluous .
Dufry as of 13th November is optimistically traded by the market .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Cyclicals during the predictable uptrend .
Looking outward , a range of CHF 80-150 is representative of history however its current valuation opens Dufry up for future downside in the short-term .
Still , this remains an attractive option to play a potential travel recovery .
Thanks for reading !
Happy to answer any questions below .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before @ @ @ @ @

by Shedededen
TL;DR
As the world’s largest operator of airport duty-free stores, Dufry ($DUFRY) has suffered alongside previous businesses covered: Booking Holdings ($BKNG) and Hostelworld Group ($HSWLF). Unlike those businesses, Dufry is not a secular growth play, but a Cyclical. Suppression of its valuation caused by the costs of expansion and slowing sales growth have been compounded by a collapse in global travel. This likely forms a bottom in the cycle. An enhanced financial position; vectors enabling further Asian expansion; and recent positive vaccine news has caused a dramatic upswing. Though stretched from its fundamentals, Dufry offers significant potential upside to investors banking on a travel recovery and willing to withstand short-term volatility as gravity returns to its valuation.
1. BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Figure 1: Performance of Dufry AG visualised through annual revenue, operating profit, and share price performance over the past decade. Source: Dufry AG financials and GuruFocus.
First, a short business overview. Dufry operates mainly as an airport retailer, representing 88% of 2019A revenues. This article’s focus lies here. Its decade-long “global ambition” has centred on increasing scale via acquisitions, which has boosted airport retail market share to ~20%. This M&A push continues amid current challenges; fully acquiring American-focussed unit, Hudson ($HUD), in August 2020 – signalling confidence or ego. Beyond, management has set its sights on Asian growth, buoyed by Alibaba’s ($BABA) recent 10% stake. There is a good reason for this, as Asian travel spend only grows in significance. Here, luxury goods’ demand is expected to double by 2025. Presently, its main geographic exposure is the Americas and Europe; areas where air travel will take longest to recover.
2. OPPORTUNITY
Figure 1 shows increases in sales and profit have not been reflected in Dufry’s valuation, which is now at an ~70% discount to its highs in 2017. There are several possible explanations. Chiefly, growth in operating cashflows are being offset by financing costs incurred by their acquisition-heavy strategy. Motive for consolidation is rational, as scale means Dufry can leverage its distribution network for better pricing and synergistic cost-benefits. Yet, cost-cutting has only yielded a 1.61% gross margin improvement from 2016-2020. Shareholders have yet to meaningfully benefit from their “global ambition[s]”.
An additional explanation for its persistent struggles is that Dufry, like almost all of retail, has a cyclical business. I propose this was somewhat overlooked by past bullish coverage on Seeking Alpha. Its cyclical nature means investors are constantly looking ahead. As Peter Lynch writes: “timing is everything with cyclicals”. In hindsight, growth sluggishness was a sign that the ‘recovery story’ of this cyclical was over well before COVID-19 – perhaps this story now repeats itself.

Figure 2: Back-of-the-napkin forecast of Dufry AG. Source: Author’s calculations.
Management expects sales to recover by 2022 and lays out three scenarios for 2020: Best (-40% YoY), Base (-55% YoY), and Worst (-70%) YoY. A 2022 recovery seems unlikely, as the International Air Travel Association (IATA) forecasts a 2024 recovery in passengers. Another variable is the premium investors are willing to pay. The P/S ratio paid during the ‘uptrend’ period (2010-2014) was higher than during the ‘stagnation’ (2015-2019) and ‘downtrend’ (2019-2020) periods. Anticipation for the end of the business cycle explains these reductions in premia. Expect higher premia being paid, should a recovery be conceivable. These assumptions inform projections laid out in Figure 4.
3. RECOVERY RISK FACTORS
For Dufry, a recovery in its business and stock requires a revival in global air travel and travel spending. Previously highlighted, a 2024 recovery in passengers is expected by the IATA. The Americas and Europe, accounting for 40% and 44% of 2019A sales, will lag on revised forecasts. Concurrently, a -70% change YoY in international arrivals is expected. Domestic tourism has been a bright spot, but spending is significantly higher for international tourism – travel-related expenses disproportionately account towards this.
Aside from obvious uncertainties regarding the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines – and if this translates to traveller confidence – consumer strength during the ‘recovery’ phase is crucial. Fortunately, consumer confidence has held-up well in the West so far. “Pent-up demand” due to forced saving across Spring/Summer has led to positive surprises in economic data. This may bode well for travel spending in 2021, however, continued small-business struggles weigh on the incomes of the approximately 1 in 2 persons employed therein as well as the possibility of further lockdowns, remain.
So far, a picture is painted of short-term pain but long-term opportunity. Yet, aside from the important and frequently quantified variables which will influence future valuations of Dufry, an esoteric question should be asked: upon reopening, what will airports look like? Airport design will no doubt radically change in the coming years. Architecturally, space allotted to Check-In will decrease, as Security and Terminal become more spread out. For Dufry, omnichannel strategies will become vital. World Duty Free stores have begun to offer “concierge” services, where customers browse in-store and receive items delivered – where the Alibaba joint-venture is likely pivotal. It is uncertain if customers will adopt this, but such a strategy seems apt following recent booms in domestic duty-free shopping as domestic travel recovers first.
4. FINANCIAL STRENGTH

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Figure 3: Table showing financial position of Dufry, regarding payment of liabilities. Source: Author’s calculations.
It is unsurprising that Dufry turned to the financial market for support. A recent rights issue raised CHF 820M, with Advent International and Alibaba receiving most equity. Much of this cash will finance the CHF ~283M Hudson acquisition, with the rest there to steady the ship. Dufry’s total liquidity now sits at CHF 2,065M. In a scenario of -70% 2020 sales, monthly operational cash burn is estimated at CHF 60M per month. Therefore, Dufry has conceivably approximately 34 months of liquidity at the current status quo.
5. VALUATION
Figure 2 shows a valuation using multiples and projected sales. A more conservative DCF model is shown in Figure 4 and its assumptions in Figure 5.
Figure 4: Sensitivity analysis of outputs of discounted cash flow model of Dufry in a BULL scenario. PV for BASE and BEAR are CHF 32 and CHF 28, respectively. Source: Author’s calculations.
Figure 5: Input assumptions for Figure 2 and Figure 4. Source: Author’s calculations.
At market close on Friday 13th November 2020, Dufry is up approximately 30% this week. Encouraging COVID-19 vaccine developments from Pfizer ($PFE) and BioNTech ($BNTX) have spurred notion of a Travel & Tourism recovery. The swiftness of this move means there is little to gain by chasing this rally. Historically examining the speed of Dufry’s recovery in 2009, conceivably there remains significant upside (Figure 2). Yet, Figure 3 otherwise suggests that Dufry has become detached from its fundamentals and therefore presents minimal margin of safety in the short-term.
6. CONCLUSION
In making conclusions about a business experiencing an “event”, it is wise to consider what we know and what we don’t know.
What we know: Operationally, a persistent management team means Dufry continues to eye expanding their global presence. Asia is integral to this and Alibaba has recently acquired a 10% stake, suggesting that initial steps are being taken. Financially, its capitally intensive growth strategy coupled with the collapse in 2020 travel demand has necessitated recent capital raises by Dufry. These have significantly enhanced its liquidity, which has been used not only to shore up balance sheets but acquire smaller, struggling peers.
What we don’t know: Current sentiment leans toward a swift recovery in travel however it remains uncertain when passengers will be comfortable travelling again, and what form it takes. Past articles published suggest vacation habits quickly resume after a shock but cash-strapped travellers may limit non-essential travel expenses – sadly that Lagavulin 16-year is superfluous.
Dufry as of 13th November is optimistically traded by the market. This is unsurprising; as money is made with Cyclicals during the predictable uptrend. Looking outward, a range of CHF 80-150 is representative of history however its current valuation opens Dufry up for future downside in the short-term. Still, this remains an attractive option to play a potential travel recovery.
—
Thanks for reading ! Happy to answer any questions below.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Japan Looks To Open The World’s First Hydrogen Import Facility

Japan is famous for its unique culture and technological prowess .
What makes the world ’ s third-largest economy even more remarkable is the absence of significant natural resources that are necessary to power industrial processes .
Japan has an extremely high import dependency which is unusual for a major economy .
To make matters worse , the geographic characteristics of the island nation increase transportation costs significantly .
Decarbonization of Japan ’ s energy system is a serious challenge as the country is densely populated , mountainous , and has relatively deep shores for the installation of offshore wind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain dependent on imports even in the era of renewables .
However , the country ’ s high technological development offers opportunities for companies that can develop innovative solutions .
Two Japanese firms , for example , are working on a hydrogen-based supply chain to replace fossil fuels .
Next year March the import terminal of Kobe will receive its first hydrogen shipment .
Kawasaki Heavy Industries and energy supplier Iwatani have been working on a facility that is the first of its kind .
According to Motohiko Nishimura , the head of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ hydrogen is indispensable for Japan to reach the zero-emission goal .
Renewable energy alone isn ’ t enough to meet the nation ’ s hefty energy needs.
” The versatile applicability of hydrogen is important for the fuel ’ s role in future energy systems .
Especially hard-to-abate sectors such as industrial processes and heavy-duty transportation rely on the widespread availability of hydrogen and the development of related technologies .
The geographic challenges necessitate imports .
The offloading and storage facilities are under construction in Kobe Japan and will be finished @ @ @ @ @ @ @ developed the world ’ s first hydrogen transportation ship .
The entire project is located on roughly one-hectare and has cost approximately 10 billion yen , or €83.5 million .
Japanese companies have been working together with their counterparts in Australia for the sourcing of the first hydrogen ship .
Already , Australia ’ s energy sector is the largest exporter of coal and LNG .
The abundance of sunlight could potentially make it a hydrogen behemoth .
However , ‘ green ’ hydrogen , made from renewable electricity sources , can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This will change in the near future as electrolyzers become cheaper and ‘ green ’ electricity more abundant .
Australia ’ s attractiveness as a partner for Japan , exceeds its future potential .
The country has a favorable business climate , excellent conditions for green hydrogen production , and a stable political system which makes it a perfect candidate for Japanese companies .
Australia ’ s A $ 500 million Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain ( HESC ) project in the State of Victoria is a demonstration facility that will supply the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
AGL Energy , one of Australia ’ s largest power and gas companies , provides critical technology to produce hydrogen from brown coal through gasification .
During the first phase of the project , the carbon dioxide will end up in the atmosphere .
However , after the project becomes commercially viable , Victoria ’ s geological structures near its coast provide a solution where the carbon can be stored indefinitely underground .
The future of Japan ’ s hydrogen sector is highly dependent on the level of consumption .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand for the energy carrier will grow substantially to fully decarbonize before 2050 .
Comparably , the shift towards liquefied natural gas took approximately 50 years in Japan with significant investments in import infrastructure and production facilities .
According to Jochen Eickholt , an executive board member at Germany ’ s Siemens Energy AG , “ it won ’ t take decades for the hydrogen industry to develop , but it won ’ t happen overnight either.
” Japan ’ s technology sector has the advantage that it was an early investor in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is producing the Mirai vehicles which are powered by a hydrogen fuel cell .
The overwhelming global focus on hydrogen has started a race to develop the latest technologies .
Therefore , expect a strong commitment by Japanese companies in this rapidly expanding sector .

By Vanand Meliksetian
Japan is famous for its unique culture and technological prowess. What makes the world’s third-largest economy even more remarkable is the absence of significant natural resources that are necessary to power industrial processes. Japan has an extremely high import dependency which is unusual for a major economy. To make matters worse, the geographic characteristics of the island nation increase transportation costs significantly.
Decarbonization of Japan’s energy system is a serious challenge as the country is densely populated, mountainous, and has relatively deep shores for the installation of offshore wind. Therefore, Japan will most likely remain dependent on imports even in the era of renewables. However, the country’s high technological development offers opportunities for companies that can develop innovative solutions. Two Japanese firms, for example, are working on a hydrogen-based supply chain to replace fossil fuels.
Japan’s energy mix
Next year March the import terminal of Kobe will receive its first hydrogen shipment. Kawasaki Heavy Industries and energy supplier Iwatani have been working on a facility that is the first of its kind. According to Motohiko Nishimura, the head of Kawasaki’s hydrogen project development center, “hydrogen is indispensable for Japan to reach the zero-emission goal. Renewable energy alone isn’t enough to meet the nation’s hefty energy needs.”
The versatile applicability of hydrogen is important for the fuel’s role in future energy systems. Especially hard-to-abate sectors such as industrial processes and heavy-duty transportation rely on the widespread availability of hydrogen and the development of related technologies.
The geographic challenges necessitate imports. The offloading and storage facilities are under construction in Kobe Japan and will be finished within months. Furthermore, Kawasaki has developed the world’s first hydrogen transportation ship. The entire project is located on roughly one-hectare and has cost approximately 10 billion yen, or €83.5 million.
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Japanese companies have been working together with their counterparts in Australia for the sourcing of the first hydrogen ship. Already, Australia’s energy sector is the largest exporter of coal and LNG. The abundance of sunlight could potentially make it a hydrogen behemoth. However, ‘green’ hydrogen, made from renewable electricity sources, cannot yet compete with alternatives without heavy subsidies. This will change in the near future as electrolyzers become cheaper and ‘green’ electricity more abundant.
Australia’s attractiveness as a partner for Japan, exceeds its future potential. The country has a favorable business climate, excellent conditions for green hydrogen production, and a stable political system which makes it a perfect candidate for Japanese companies. Australia’s A$500 million Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain (HESC) project in the State of Victoria is a demonstration facility that will supply the energy for Kawasaki’s Kobe projecct.
AGL Energy, one of Australia’s largest power and gas companies, provides critical technology to produce hydrogen from brown coal through gasification. During the first phase of the project, the carbon dioxide will end up in the atmosphere. However, after the project becomes commercially viable, Victoria’s geological structures near its coast provide a solution where the carbon can be stored indefinitely underground.
The future of Japan’s hydrogen sector is highly dependent on the level of consumption. It is expected that over the next 30 years demand for the energy carrier will grow substantially to fully decarbonize before 2050.
Comparably, the shift towards liquefied natural gas took approximately 50 years in Japan with significant investments in import infrastructure and production facilities. According to Jochen Eickholt, an executive board member at Germany’s Siemens Energy AG, “it won’t take decades for the hydrogen industry to develop, but it won’t happen overnight either.”
Japan’s technology sector has the advantage that it was an early investor in hydrogen-related technologies. Toyota, for example, is producing the Mirai vehicles which are powered by a hydrogen fuel cell. The overwhelming global focus on hydrogen has started a race to develop the latest technologies. Therefore, expect a strong commitment by Japanese companies in this rapidly expanding sector.
By Vanand Meliksetian for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Jason Burack: The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires reach record high amid pandemic

The number of 401 ( k ) and IRA millionaires reach record high amid pandemic finance.yahoo.com/news/401k-i… Jason Burack is an @ @ @ @ @ historian , Austrian School economist , and contrarian .
Jason co-founded the startup financial education @ @ @ @ @ St , LLC , to try to help the people of Main Street by teaching @ @ @ @ @ , research methods , and investing expertise of Wall Street .
You can

Wall St. For Main St., Released on 11/15/20
The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires reach record high amid pandemic finance.yahoo.com/news/401k-i…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Jason Burack is an investor, entrepreneur, financial historian, Austrian School economist, and contrarian. Jason co-founded the startup financial education company Wall St for Main St, LLC, to try to help the people of Main Street by teaching them the knowledge, skills, research methods, and investing expertise of Wall Street. You can


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--UN World Food Program Warns Of “Famines Of Biblical Proportions In 2021” As Some Americans Wait 12 H

UN World Food Program Warns Of “Famines Of Biblical Proportions In 2021” As Some Americans Wait 12 Hours For Food

The UN World Food Program was the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020 , and the head of that agency is warning of the potential for absolutely devastating famines around the globe in 2021 .
The COVID-19 lockdowns that were instituted all over the world this year created tremendous hardship in many wealthy countries , but in poorer nations the economic devastation has created alarming waves of hunger .
There was hope that things would get better when lockdowns were being lifted , but now a new round of lockdowns is being imposed , and many experts are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those living in deep poverty .
David Beasley was absolutely thrilled when his agency was given the Nobel Peace Prize , because all of the attention has given him more opportunities to ask for money .
Because without a massive influx of money , he says that we are going to see “ famines of biblical proportions in 2021 ” … As I have previously explained to my readers , widespread crop failures along with the economic shutdowns brought on by COVID-19 have put a tremendous amount of stress on global food distribution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all over the planet , and this is hurting the people at the bottom of the economic food chain the most .
According to Beasley , many areas of the globe are potentially facing a major food crisis “ in the next three to six months ” … According to a joint analysis by WFP and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in October , 20 countries “ are likely to face potential spikes in high acute food insecurity ” in the next three to six months , “ and require urgent attention.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sudan , northeastern Nigeria and Burkina Faso have some areas that “ have reached a critical hunger situation following years of conflict or other shocks , ” the U.N. agencies said , and any further deterioration in coming months “ could lead to a risk of famine.
” Here in the United States , the good news is that nobody is facing starvation at this point .
But the bad news is that we are in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s , and some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 12 hours for handouts .
If you don ’ t believe this , here is an excerpt from a news report about a food distribution event that just happened in Texas… You have to be pretty desperate to be willing to wait in a line for 12 hours .
But when you are very hungry and you are very short on money , all of a sudden you will be willing to do things that you wouldn ’ t normally do .
For those that wouldn ’ t have a Thanksgiving dinner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ a real big deal ” … Elsewhere , millions upon millions of impoverished Americans are facing the possibility of being evicted from their homes right after the holiday season is over .
A national moratorium on evictions is scheduled to end on January 1st , and it is being reported that we could see a record number of evictions in January 2021… I have a feeling that the moratorium may be extended , but that will just put even more financial stress on landlords .
And at some point there will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that back rent will be due , and most of those households will not be able to pay it and will be evicted anyway .
Meanwhile , more Americans are losing their jobs with each passing day , and the new lockdowns that are being put in place all over the country right now will greatly accelerate that process .
No matter what happens politically , it appears that our national economic nightmare is only going to intensify in 2021 , and that means that we are likely to see even more civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand what is happening to our nation , and that is why so many wealthy individuals are fleeing our core urban areas .
According to the New York Post , “ far more than 300,000 New Yorkers ” have moved out of the city over the past eight months… This is already the craziest time in modern American history , and I will continue to keep my readers updated as we head into another deeply troubled year .
For a long time I have been warning that economic collapse , famine and civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three are all in the headlines on a continual basis .
Unfortunately , what we have experienced so far is just the beginning .
Global authorities are hoping for a “ reset ” , but what they are going to get is a “ great meltdown ” instead .

by Michael Snyder
The UN World Food Program was the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020, and the head of that agency is warning of the potential for absolutely devastating famines around the globe in 2021. The COVID-19 lockdowns that were instituted all over the world this year created tremendous hardship in many wealthy countries, but in poorer nations the economic devastation has created alarming waves of hunger. There was hope that things would get better when lockdowns were being lifted, but now a new round of lockdowns is being imposed, and many experts are warning about what this could mean for those living in deep poverty.
David Beasley was absolutely thrilled when his agency was given the Nobel Peace Prize, because all of the attention has given him more opportunities to ask for money. Because without a massive influx of money, he says that we are going to see “famines of biblical proportions in 2021”…
The head of the World Food Program says the Nobel Peace Prize has given the U.N. agency a spotlight and megaphone to warn world leaders that next year is going to be worse than this year, and without billions of dollars “we are going to have famines of biblical proportions in 2021.”
As I have previously explained to my readers, widespread crop failures along with the economic shutdowns brought on by COVID-19 have put a tremendous amount of stress on global food distribution systems. Food prices are rapidly rising all over the planet, and this is hurting the people at the bottom of the economic food chain the most.
According to Beasley, many areas of the globe are potentially facing a major food crisis “in the next three to six months”…
According to a joint analysis by WFP and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in October, 20 countries “are likely to face potential spikes in high acute food insecurity” in the next three to six months, “and require urgent attention.” Of those, Yemen, South Sudan, northeastern Nigeria and Burkina Faso have some areas that “have reached a critical hunger situation following years of conflict or other shocks,” the U.N. agencies said, and any further deterioration in coming months “could lead to a risk of famine.”
Here in the United States, the good news is that nobody is facing starvation at this point.
But the bad news is that we are in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and some Americans are waiting in line for up to 12 hours for handouts. If you don’t believe this, here is an excerpt from a news report about a food distribution event that just happened in Texas…
Thousands of families lined up to receive groceries at a Texas food bank this weekend, some queuing for as long as 12 hours as the on-going coronavirus pandemic continues to inflict hunger and economic hardships on the state. The food bank distribution event, held by North Texas Food Bank (NTFB) in Dallas on Saturday, saw 600,000 pounds of food given away – including 7,000 turkeys.
You have to be pretty desperate to be willing to wait in a line for 12 hours.
But when you are very hungry and you are very short on money, all of a sudden you will be willing to do things that you wouldn’t normally do.
For those that wouldn’t have a Thanksgiving dinner otherwise, this food distribution event was “a real big deal”…
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“I see blessings coming to us cause we all struggling. And I appreciate North Texas helping us out,” resident Samantha Woods said while waiting in her vehicle. “I haven’t been working since December, can’t find a job, they cut my unemployment, it’s a real big deal,” said Cynthia Culter.
Elsewhere, millions upon millions of impoverished Americans are facing the possibility of being evicted from their homes right after the holiday season is over.
A national moratorium on evictions is scheduled to end on January 1st, and it is being reported that we could see a record number of evictions in January 2021…
An estimated 11 to 13 million renter households are at risk of eviction, according to Stout, an investment bank and global advisory firm. It predicts there could be as many as 6.4 million potential eviction filings by January 1, 2021 if the CDC moratorium is lifted. Since the order does not cancel or freeze rent, all of the tenant’s back rent will be due come January 1. Without rent relief or an extension of the protection, many struggling renters will — again — face eviction.
I have a feeling that the moratorium may be extended, but that will just put even more financial stress on landlords.
And at some point there will be no more moratoriums, and all of that back rent will be due, and most of those households will not be able to pay it and will be evicted anyway.
Meanwhile, more Americans are losing their jobs with each passing day, and the new lockdowns that are being put in place all over the country right now will greatly accelerate that process.
No matter what happens politically, it appears that our national economic nightmare is only going to intensify in 2021, and that means that we are likely to see even more civil unrest.
Of course most people already understand what is happening to our nation, and that is why so many wealthy individuals are fleeing our core urban areas. According to the New York Post, “far more than 300,000 New Yorkers” have moved out of the city over the past eight months…
City residents filed 295,103 change of address requests from March 1 through Oct. 31, according to data The Post obtained from the US Postal Service under a Freedom of Information Act request. Since the data details only when 11 or more forwarding requests were made to a particular county outside NYC, the number of moves is actually higher. And a single address change could represent an entire household, which means far more than 300,000 New Yorkers fled the five boroughs.
This is already the craziest time in modern American history, and I will continue to keep my readers updated as we head into another deeply troubled year.
For a long time I have been warning that economic collapse, famine and civil unrest were coming, and now all three are all in the headlines on a continual basis.
Unfortunately, what we have experienced so far is just the beginning. Global authorities are hoping for a “reset”, but what they are going to get is a “great meltdown” instead.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Special Report: Evangelical Christianity In Crisis

The evangelical movement in the United States has reached a moment of reckoning .
To the surprise of many readers , this is actually not an article about Donald Trump .
Yes , evangelicals have become very closely linked to President Trump over the past four years , and this has deeply affected how many outsiders view the evangelical movement .
But no matter what happens politically , evangelical churches will just continue to keep doing what they have been doing .
In the long-term , the success of evangelical Christianity in America does not depend on the political success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ article about the very long list of high profile evangelical leaders that have fallen in recent months .
To see so many prominent names fall so spectacularly has grieved me deeply , but I try very hard to avoid making a public spectacle out of them .
I do this for a couple of reasons .
Number one , they are still my brothers and sisters no matter what they have done .
Secondly , there is very little positive that comes out of drawing attention to our bad apples .
The mainstream @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of evangelical leaders that fall , and they do this because it greatly supports many of the narratives that they are pushing .
But the mainstream media will never , ever do stories on the thousands of absolutely amazing men and women of God that are doing incredible work all over the globe .
They only want to do negative stories about evangelical Christianity , and we need to push back against that .
Don ’ t get me wrong – I am certainly not saying that we should ignore when evangelical leaders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be held accountable , and there are times when entire churches and ministries need to be held accountable .
And when people have honest questions about what has happened , we should be more than willing to address those questions .
Having said all that , this is not an article about evangelical leaders that have fallen either .
Rather , the real reason why evangelical Christianity is in crisis in the United States is because our numbers are rapidly falling and surveys have shown that many of the remaining evangelicals no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evangelical beliefs .
Let ’ s start by talking about numbers .
When George W. Bush was first elected president , evangelical Christians made up approximately a quarter of the U.S. population .
But then we were down to about 21 percent in 2010 , and at this point that figure has dropped to about 15 percent .
The following comes from NBC News… In addition to white American Christianity crossing the majority-minority threshold , the last decade also saw a particularly significant decline within one subgroup : white evangelicals .
While the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Catholics have been shrinking for decades , white evangelical Protestants had seemed immune to the forces eroding membership among other white Christian groups .
But since 2010 , the number of white evangelical Protestants has dropped from 21 percent of the population to 15 percent .
While white evangelical Protestants have enjoyed an outsized public presence over the last four years because of their predominance in President Donald Trump ’ s unshakeable base , it is notable that today they are actually roughly the same size as their white mainline Protestant cousins ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
At what point are evangelical leaders finally going to admit that we have a major problem on our hands ?
If this trend continues , it won ’ t be too long before we are at 10 percent of the population , and then eventually it will just be 5 percent .
To see what our future potentially looks like , all you have to do is to look at many western European nations where Bible-believing Christians now make up just a very small fraction of the overall population .
Something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep doing the same things that we have been doing , we are going to keep getting the same results , and that is simply not acceptable .
In addition , evangelical leaders should be deeply , deeply alarmed that large numbers of evangelicals have abandoned even the most basic evangelical beliefs .
George Barna leads the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University , and a very alarming survey that they released last month contained some jaw-dropping results .
The following numbers from the survey are specifically for “ evangelical Christians ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is good enough or does enough good works can earn eternal salvation • 44 % do not believe that history is the unfolding narrative of God ’ s reality • 44 % claim the Bible is ambiguous in its teaching about abortion • 43 % maintain that when Jesus was on earth , He sinned • 43 % do not believe that there is a common , God-given purpose to humanity ( i.e.
, to know , love and serve Him ) • 42 % seek moral guidance primarily from sources other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not identify and confess their sins on a daily basis • 40 % do not believe that human life is sacred • 40 % accept lying as morally acceptable if it advances personal interests or protect one ’ s reputation • 39 % identify the people they always respect as being only those who have the same beliefs as they possess • 36 % prefer socialism to capitalism • 36 % fail to seek and pursue God ’ s will for their life each day • 34 % reject the idea of legitimate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • 34 % argue that abortion is morally acceptable if it spares the mother from financial or emotional discomfort or hardship • 32 % do not thank or worship God each day Unfortunately , the figures in this particular survey are quite consistent with other surveys that have also found that about a third of all evangelicals now support abortion and gay marriage .
Beyond that , the bigger issue is that large numbers of “ evangelicals ” now reject the very basic doctrinal beliefs that would supposedly make them “ evangelical ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe that Jesus sinned while He was on Earth , then according to you He could not have possibly been the sinless sacrifice needed to pay for your sins .
But apparently that is exactly what 43 percent of evangelicals now believe .
And the survey also found that nearly half of all evangelicals now believe that eternal salvation can be earned by good works , but that is the antithesis of what evangelical churches are supposed to teach .
The Bible very clearly states that we are not saved by good works @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is just one way to salvation , and that is faith in Jesus Christ .
This is what John 3:16 says… If “ evangelical Christians ” continue to drift in their beliefs like this , it won ’ t be too much longer before there is very little that distinguishes them from the overall population as a whole .
And if “ evangelical Christianity ” continues to die off , what implications is that going to have for the future of our country ?
This is such a critical moment for the evangelical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time when many prominent evangelical leaders have fallen on the national stage due to moral failures .
A day of reckoning has arrived , and if there was ever a time we desperately needed a miracle , it is now .

by Michael Snyder
The evangelical movement in the United States has reached a moment of reckoning. To the surprise of many readers, this is actually not an article about Donald Trump. Yes, evangelicals have become very closely linked to President Trump over the past four years, and this has deeply affected how many outsiders view the evangelical movement. But no matter what happens politically, evangelical churches will just continue to keep doing what they have been doing. In the long-term, the success of evangelical Christianity in America does not depend on the political success of Donald Trump.
Nor is this article about the very long list of high profile evangelical leaders that have fallen in recent months. To see so many prominent names fall so spectacularly has grieved me deeply, but I try very hard to avoid making a public spectacle out of them.
I do this for a couple of reasons. Number one, they are still my brothers and sisters no matter what they have done. Secondly, there is very little positive that comes out of drawing attention to our bad apples. The mainstream media loves to make a spectacle out of evangelical leaders that fall, and they do this because it greatly supports many of the narratives that they are pushing. But the mainstream media will never, ever do stories on the thousands of absolutely amazing men and women of God that are doing incredible work all over the globe. They only want to do negative stories about evangelical Christianity, and we need to push back against that.
Don’t get me wrong – I am certainly not saying that we should ignore when evangelical leaders are morally compromised. Those that fall should be held accountable, and there are times when entire churches and ministries need to be held accountable.
And when people have honest questions about what has happened, we should be more than willing to address those questions.
Having said all that, this is not an article about evangelical leaders that have fallen either.
Rather, the real reason why evangelical Christianity is in crisis in the United States is because our numbers are rapidly falling and surveys have shown that many of the remaining evangelicals no longer hold to even the most basic evangelical beliefs.
Let’s start by talking about numbers. When George W. Bush was first elected president, evangelical Christians made up approximately a quarter of the U.S. population. But then we were down to about 21 percent in 2010, and at this point that figure has dropped to about 15 percent. The following comes from NBC News…
In addition to white American Christianity crossing the majority-minority threshold, the last decade also saw a particularly significant decline within one subgroup: white evangelicals. While the ranks of white mainline Protestants and white Catholics have been shrinking for decades, white evangelical Protestants had seemed immune to the forces eroding membership among other white Christian groups. But since 2010, the number of white evangelical Protestants has dropped from 21 percent of the population to 15 percent. While white evangelical Protestants have enjoyed an outsized public presence over the last four years because of their predominance in President Donald Trump’s unshakeable base, it is notable that today they are actually roughly the same size as their white mainline Protestant cousins (15 percent vs. 16 percent, respectively).
At what point are evangelical leaders finally going to admit that we have a major problem on our hands?
If this trend continues, it won’t be too long before we are at 10 percent of the population, and then eventually it will just be 5 percent.
To see what our future potentially looks like, all you have to do is to look at many western European nations where Bible-believing Christians now make up just a very small fraction of the overall population.
Something has got to change. If we keep doing the same things that we have been doing, we are going to keep getting the same results, and that is simply not acceptable.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In addition, evangelical leaders should be deeply, deeply alarmed that large numbers of evangelicals have abandoned even the most basic evangelical beliefs.
George Barna leads the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University, and a very alarming survey that they released last month contained some jaw-dropping results. The following numbers from the survey are specifically for “evangelical Christians”…
• 48% believe a person who is good enough or does enough good works can earn eternal salvation
• 44% do not believe that history is the unfolding narrative of God’s reality
• 44% claim the Bible is ambiguous in its teaching about abortion
• 43% maintain that when Jesus was on earth, He sinned
• 43% do not believe that there is a common, God-given purpose to humanity (i.e., to know, love and serve Him)
• 42% seek moral guidance primarily from sources other than the Bible
• 42% do not identify and confess their sins on a daily basis
• 40% do not believe that human life is sacred
• 40% accept lying as morally acceptable if it advances personal interests or protect one’s reputation
• 39% identify the people they always respect as being only those who have the same beliefs as they possess
• 36% prefer socialism to capitalism
• 36% fail to seek and pursue God’s will for their life each day
• 34% reject the idea of legitimate marriage as one man and one woman
• 34% argue that abortion is morally acceptable if it spares the mother from financial or emotional discomfort or hardship
• 32% do not thank or worship God each day
Unfortunately, the figures in this particular survey are quite consistent with other surveys that have also found that about a third of all evangelicals now support abortion and gay marriage.
Beyond that, the bigger issue is that large numbers of “evangelicals” now reject the very basic doctrinal beliefs that would supposedly make them “evangelical” in the first place.
If you believe that Jesus sinned while He was on Earth, then according to you He could not have possibly been the sinless sacrifice needed to pay for your sins.
But apparently that is exactly what 43 percent of evangelicals now believe.
And the survey also found that nearly half of all evangelicals now believe that eternal salvation can be earned by good works, but that is the antithesis of what evangelical churches are supposed to teach.
The Bible very clearly states that we are not saved by good works. The Bible tells us that there is just one way to salvation, and that is faith in Jesus Christ. This is what John 3:16 says…
For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.
If “evangelical Christians” continue to drift in their beliefs like this, it won’t be too much longer before there is very little that distinguishes them from the overall population as a whole.
And if “evangelical Christianity” continues to die off, what implications is that going to have for the future of our country?
This is such a critical moment for the evangelical community, and it comes at a time when many prominent evangelical leaders have fallen on the national stage due to moral failures.
A day of reckoning has arrived, and if there was ever a time we desperately needed a miracle, it is now.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--THE MADNESS OF CROWDS, THE SANITY OF GOLD

This week ’ s article is by Matt Piepenburg – Commercial Director of MAM .
( Link CV ) Crowds , like sheep , are only as safe as the shepherds who guide them .
If the shepherd is mad , so too is the crowd .
Today , central bank shepherds are leading the vast majority of investors over a currency cliff .
This is easy to predict , despite the fact that most forecasting models are woefully flawed .
Whatever one ’ s views of the recent Presidential election in the U.S. , for example , we can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their advanced algorithms got the “ blue wave ” of an easy Democratic landslide completely , well… Whether predicting viral death rates , political elections , GDP growth , budgets , tax revenues or market direction , the experts and their analytics have been consistently poor in mapping out the near future .
The World Bank , for example , is projecting global GDP to increase in 2021 by 4 % , despite the obvious damage COVID lockdowns have already done to global economies .
That same World Bank has also confessed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion .
This means global debt to GDP is now greater than 3:1 , which makes such growth projections openly comical .
As for central banks who print money out of thin air to buy unwanted sovereign debts , they too are projecting miraculous solutions to otherwise staggering debt problems based on , you guessed it : Creating more debt .
And how will this debt be paid ?
Easy—with money created by a mouse click at a central bank near you .
Seem a little bit too good to be true for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. Fed ’ s track record for forecasting recessions is 0 in 10 , but that has never stopped them from making inaccurate and contradictory projections which resemble a kind of open madness : “ You will never see another financial crisis in your lifetime.
” -Janet Yellen , spring 2018 “ I do worry that we could have another financial crisis .
″ -Janet Yellen , fall 2018 “ There ’ s no reason to think this ( bullish ) cycle can ’ t continue for quite some time , effectively indefinitely.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is on an unsustainable fiscal path ; there ’ s no hiding from it.
” -Jerome Powell–2019 In the post-08 “ new abnormal ” of deficits without tears and embarrassing new theories which argue that unlimited money creation can never lead to inflation , the fantasy forecasters have been quite busy replacing reason with madness .
But can economies , as well as near-term price actions in markets , truly be forecasted with results better than a coin toss ?
My answer is a clear “ yes ” and a clear “ no.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex movement of a Swiss watch can in fact be trusted , and hence predicted ; while other phenomena , like the madness of crowds and their preference for fantasy , can not .
TRUST CAN NOT BE FORECASTED The vast majority of investors , for example , have an almost blind faith in central banks housed in impressive buildings with fancy folks running them .
Measuring that faith , as well as the inevitable loss of that faith , is harder than a Rolex repair .
In fact , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence suggests that the experts are indulging in madness .
Since 2009 , central banks and policy makers have done nothing but put lipstick on an economic pig by using artificial money to buy unwanted IOU ’ s and then telegraphing the result as “ free market capitalism , ” or even worse , a “ recovery.
” To ignore such madness in favor of blind faith is itself a kind of madness , and madness , like COVID-19 , spreads best in crowds .
Today , the vast majority of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t even know it .
SOME MARKET FORCES CAN BE FORECASTED Informed investors , as well as students of history , math and common sense , however , have long since stood outside of the crowd .
They accept that market laws , like laws of physics , are in fact quite predictive .
For example , not once in the history of nations , markets or exchanges , has any empire , system or market ever successfully prevented an economic , currency or market collapse by printing gobs and gobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not ever .
The Austrian school of economics , unlike Keynesian debt madness taken too far , long ago understood that an economic party sustained by debt ends with a brutal hangover caused by that same debt .
Just as physicists long ago understood that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction ( F=MA ) , Austrian economists like von Mises similarly understood that market forces are no different .
For every debt rise there is an equal and opposite debt fall .
Given that today ’ s global economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels ever recorded in the history of capital markets , should we not therefore be confident in “ forecasting ” one helluva a day of reckoning for our global markets , economies and currencies ?
Or as von Mises so bluntly warned : “ There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion .
The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion , or later as a final and total catastrophe of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then is yes , some things are foreseeable .
1+1 still equals 2 , and debt-based “ recoveries ” always fail , along with their inflated currencies .
Despite such cold facts , the current fantasy being pushed by the MMT crowd as well as politicians and central bankers from Japan to the U.S. , is that such economic reckonings ( including inflation ) can be outlawed by a money printer .
Such short-term fantasy explains how economies right outside your front door are tanking while stock markets ( enjoying artificial , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and elsewhere are approaching new highs .
Those highs are quantifiably correlated to global money printing like this : Printed , fiat currencies are used to push bond prices so high that bond yields ( which move inversely to price ) have been so thoroughly distorted that for the first time in market history , we are seeing negative yielding bonds across the globe like this : That too is , well…Madness .
Such objective charts are staggering , and ought to be a universal wake-up call to any sane observer of global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , frankly , smacks of a kind of madness .
But as Mark Twain warned , crowds often prefer a comforting fantasy over a hard fact , and are thus easy to fool .
Hence , economic policy makers continue to lead a crowd of sheep over a cliff of unsustainable debt paid for with diluted currencies that destroys their hard-earned wealth .
The inherent purchasing power of all major currencies are now tanking by the second when compared against timeless measurements of value like gold .
The following graph is perhaps the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : In short , global currencies are among the first dominos to fall in an artificial global economy sustained by grotesque levels of debt paid for by equally grotesque levels of fiat money creation .
Inevitably , economies and markets fall in succession with their currencies .
The historical cure for such currency madness is a gold , which far from being a “ barbarous relic ” of the past , is a timeless solution for the future .
Again : This is predictable .
This is forecastable .
To consider such evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a form of madness .
To ignore the evidence , or worse yet , hide or downplay the evidence , is even more maddening .
Most “ financial journalists , ” for example , studied marketing rather than markets and are hardly reliable “ warning bells.
” They understand click-bait techniques and key words , and get their research from a Google search rather than a basic understanding of economic forces .
Not 1 in 10 of average investors ( or 1 in 100 of average “ financial journalists ” ) have ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ above .
That , alas , explains the spread of fantasy as well as the madness of crowds who feel their currencies , stocks , and bonds are in the safe hands of the experts .
Folks , those experts are paper tigers , not financial lions .
For now , however , mad faith in their mad policies continues .
TIMING THE IMPOSSIBLE , PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE But for how long ?
Timing human emotion , blind faith or even collective madness is a fool ’ s errand .
The emotional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex for easy modeling , and right now , the vast majority of market participants still trust the “ experts ” in general and the central banks in particular , to save them .
Comforting speeches from the FOMC and empty headlines from the sell-side on the latest tech stock have replaced basic economics , math and history .
Neither I nor you can time the expiration date of this misguided yet ephemeral trust in using counterfeit money to pay for record-breaking debt levels and historically unmatched asset bubbles .
But as both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that trust ends once currencies lose their value and the madness of crowd faith in fantasy is replaced by a mad crowd of broke investors .
Those who confront facts rather than fantasy , however , can prepare for the unfolding of history and math without having to worry about the precise “ timing ” of what is otherwise inevitable .
Toward that end , the historical remedy for the current wave of policy madness has always been the same : Precious Metals .

by Matt Piepenburg via Gold Switzerland
This week’s article is by Matt Piepenburg – Commercial Director of MAM. (Link CV)
Crowds, like sheep, are only as safe as the shepherds who guide them.
If the shepherd is mad, so too is the crowd.
Today, central bank shepherds are leading the vast majority of investors over a currency cliff. This is easy to predict, despite the fact that most forecasting models are woefully flawed.
THE FAILURE OF PREDICTIVE MODELS
Whatever one’s views of the recent Presidential election in the U.S., for example, we can all agree that the professional pollsters and their advanced algorithms got the “blue wave” of an easy Democratic landslide completely, well…
Wrong.
Whether predicting viral death rates, political elections, GDP growth, budgets, tax revenues or market direction, the experts and their analytics have been consistently poor in mapping out the near future.
The World Bank, for example, is projecting global GDP to increase in 2021 by 4%, despite the obvious damage COVID lockdowns have already done to global economies.
That same World Bank has also confessed to a global debt tally of $260 trillion. This means global debt to GDP is now greater than 3:1, which makes such growth projections openly comical.
THE FANTASY OF CENTRAL BANK MESSAGING
As for central banks who print money out of thin air to buy unwanted sovereign debts, they too are projecting miraculous solutions to otherwise staggering debt problems based on, you guessed it: Creating more debt.
And how will this debt be paid? Easy—with money created by a mouse click at a central bank near you.
Seem a little bit too good to be true for the economic future?
Well, the U.S. Fed’s track record for forecasting recessions is 0 in 10, but that has never stopped them from making inaccurate and contradictory projections which resemble a kind of open madness:
“You will never see another financial crisis in your lifetime.”
-Janet Yellen, spring 2018
“I do worry that we could have another financial crisis. ″
-Janet Yellen, fall 2018
“There’s no reason to think this (bullish) cycle can’t continue for quite some time, effectively indefinitely.”
-Jerome Powell –2018
“The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path; there’s no hiding from it.”
-Jerome Powell–2019
In the post-08 “new abnormal” of deficits without tears and embarrassing new theories which argue that unlimited money creation can never lead to inflation , the fantasy forecasters have been quite busy replacing reason with madness.
PREDICTING THE END?
But can economies, as well as near-term price actions in markets, truly be forecasted with results better than a coin toss?
My answer is a clear “yes” and a clear “no.”
Why?
Because some things, like the complex movement of a Swiss watch can in fact be trusted, and hence predicted; while other phenomena, like the madness of crowds and their preference for fantasy, cannot.
TRUST CAN NOT BE FORECASTED
The vast majority of investors, for example, have an almost blind faith in central banks housed in impressive buildings with fancy folks running them.
Measuring that faith, as well as the inevitable loss of that faith, is harder than a Rolex repair. In fact, it’s impossible to time, even when objective evidence suggests that the experts are indulging in madness.
Since 2009, central banks and policy makers have done nothing but put lipstick on an economic pig by using artificial money to buy unwanted IOU’s and then telegraphing the result as “free market capitalism,” or even worse, a “recovery.”
To ignore such madness in favor of blind faith is itself a kind of madness, and madness, like COVID-19, spreads best in crowds.
Today, the vast majority of the world has gone financially mad, and most don’t even know it.
SOME MARKET FORCES CAN BE FORECASTED
Informed investors, as well as students of history, math and common sense, however, have long since stood outside of the crowd.
They accept that market laws, like laws of physics, are in fact quite predictive.
For example, not once in the history of nations, markets or exchanges, has any empire, system or market ever successfully prevented an economic, currency or market collapse by printing gobs and gobs of fake money.
Not once. Not ever.
The Austrian school of economics, unlike Keynesian debt madness taken too far, long ago understood that an economic party sustained by debt ends with a brutal hangover caused by that same debt.
Just as physicists long ago understood that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction (F=MA), Austrian economists like von Mises similarly understood that market forces are no different.
For every debt rise there is an equal and opposite debt fall.
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Given that today’s global economy is supported exclusively by the greatest debt levels ever recorded in the history of capital markets, should we not therefore be confident in “forecasting” one helluva a day of reckoning for our global markets, economies and currencies?
Or as von Mises so bluntly warned:
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
The short answer, then is yes, some things are foreseeable. 1+1 still equals 2, and debt-based “recoveries” always fail, along with their inflated currencies.
Despite such cold facts, the current fantasy being pushed by the MMT crowd as well as politicians and central bankers from Japan to the U.S., is that such economic reckonings (including inflation) can be outlawed by a money printer.
Folks: That’s madness in a nutshell.
Such short-term fantasy explains how economies right outside your front door are tanking while stock markets (enjoying artificial, low-rate debt rollovers) in the U.S. and elsewhere are approaching new highs.
Those highs are quantifiably correlated to global money printing like this:
Printed, fiat currencies are used to push bond prices so high that bond yields (which move inversely to price) have been so thoroughly distorted that for the first time in market history, we are seeing negative yielding bonds across the globe like this:
That too is, well…Madness.
Such objective charts are staggering, and ought to be a universal wake-up call to any sane observer of global markets.
Again, to believe otherwise, frankly, smacks of a kind of madness.
But as Mark Twain warned, crowds often prefer a comforting fantasy over a hard fact, and are thus easy to fool.
Hence, economic policy makers continue to lead a crowd of sheep over a cliff of unsustainable debt paid for with diluted currencies that destroys their hard-earned wealth.
The inherent purchasing power of all major currencies are now tanking by the second when compared against timeless measurements of value like gold.
The following graph is perhaps the most important one you will ever see:
In short, global currencies are among the first dominos to fall in an artificial global economy sustained by grotesque levels of debt paid for by equally grotesque levels of fiat money creation.
Inevitably, economies and markets fall in succession with their currencies. The historical cure for such currency madness is a gold, which far from being a “barbarous relic” of the past, is a timeless solution for the future.
Again: This is predictable. This is forecastable.
To consider such evidence yet burry one’s head is a form of madness. To ignore the evidence, or worse yet, hide or downplay the evidence, is even more maddening.
Most “financial journalists,” for example, studied marketing rather than markets and are hardly reliable “warning bells.”
They understand click-bait techniques and key words, and get their research from a Google search rather than a basic understanding of economic forces.
Not 1 in 10 of average investors (or 1 in 100 of average “financial journalists”) have ever paused to consider simple charts like those above.
That, alas, explains the spread of fantasy as well as the madness of crowds who feel their currencies, stocks, and bonds are in the safe hands of the experts.
Folks, those experts are paper tigers, not financial lions. For now, however, mad faith in their mad policies continues.
TIMING THE IMPOSSIBLE, PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE
But for how long?
Timing human emotion, blind faith or even collective madness is a fool’s errand.
The emotional element of the global economy is too complex for easy modeling, and right now, the vast majority of market participants still trust the “experts” in general and the central banks in particular, to save them.
Comforting speeches from the FOMC and empty headlines from the sell-side on the latest tech stock have replaced basic economics, math and history.
Stated more simply: Fantasy has replaced facts.
Neither I nor you can time the expiration date of this misguided yet ephemeral trust in using counterfeit money to pay for record-breaking debt levels and historically unmatched asset bubbles.
But as both history and natural market forces confirm, that trust ends once currencies lose their value and the madness of crowd faith in fantasy is replaced by a mad crowd of broke investors.
Those who confront facts rather than fantasy, however, can prepare for the unfolding of history and math without having to worry about the precise “timing” of what is otherwise inevitable.
Toward that end, the historical remedy for the current wave of policy madness has always been the same: Precious Metals.
Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--A Dark Winter Is Coming! We Haven’t Yet Faced The Final Financial Boss Of 2020

by Financial Argument via Financial Argument Everything will either get worse or much worse .
The ship ’ s already started taking on water and it ’ s sinking .
Also , We haven ’ t yet faced the final financial boss of 2020 .
Trillions of dollars from the Fed wouldn ’ t be enough to cover the gaping holes , even if it cared about the ship sinking !
Honestly , it doesn ’ t really matter who the president is ; all you need to know is that nothing will save our economy .
Were you hoping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of economic superman ?
Sorry , that ’ s not going to happen .
In addition , another issue that needs attention is the “ Great Reset , ” a concept created and developed by the World Economic Forum .
While first proposed in 2016 , the idea seems to have gained ground during the current public health crisis .
If you ’ ve been following my channel for a while , you already know that I believe our economy is broken .
I ’ ve talked about a number of issues growing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so on – but the Great Reset ’ s apparent reliance on “ large-scale spending programs ” that governments have created in response to the current context is a real issue .
Printing more money isn ’ t going to solve these problems and may even speed up our economic collapse .
I ’ m not going to debate what should or shouldn ’ t be a political priority .
I am far more concerned that the unlimited printing of money to pay for various proposals will provide us with the same economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harmful economic policies that included everything from the limitation of gold and silver resources to debasing the currency !
Nearly everything we ’ ve seen so far this year – including the economic , social , and political turmoil – has just been a dress rehearsal for what ’ s coming .
So be vigilant , hold onto your metals , and get ready for a dark winter .
00:00 | 00:35 | The main problem is the corrupt financial system 01:42 | Everything will either get worse or much worse 02:09 | @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the senate will be a key factor 04:05 | Emergency Economic Stabilization Act 05:00 | The Great Reset 05:53 | IMF Learning Coin 07:28 | The Green New Deal fantasy 08:28 | Biden ’ s Budget Plan 09:11 | The U.S. has both a foreign trade deficit and a budget deficit 10:12 | The U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 107 % 10:40 | MMT ( modern monetary theory ) 11:22 | Get ready for a dark winter

by Financial Argument via Financial Argument
Everything will either get worse or much worse. The ship’s already started taking on water and it’s sinking. Also, We haven’t yet faced the final financial boss of 2020.
Trillions of dollars from the Fed wouldn’t be enough to cover the gaping holes, even if it cared about the ship sinking!
Honestly, it doesn’t really matter who the president is; all you need to know is that nothing will save our economy. Were you hoping for a hero, maybe some kind of economic superman? Sorry, that’s not going to happen.
In addition, another issue that needs attention is the “Great Reset,” a concept created and developed by the World Economic Forum. While first proposed in 2016, the idea seems to have gained ground during the current public health crisis.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you’ve been following my channel for a while, you already know that I believe our economy is broken. I’ve talked about a number of issues growing public debt, rising unemployment, and so on – but the Great Reset’s apparent reliance on “large-scale spending programs” that governments have created in response to the current context is a real issue. Printing more money isn’t going to solve these problems and may even speed up our economic collapse.
I’m not going to debate what should or shouldn’t be a political priority. I am far more concerned that the unlimited printing of money to pay for various proposals will provide us with the same economic collapse the Roman Empire experienced due to harmful economic policies that included everything from the limitation of gold and silver resources to debasing the currency!
Nearly everything we’ve seen so far this year – including the economic, social, and political turmoil – has just been a dress rehearsal for what’s coming. So be vigilant, hold onto your metals, and get ready for a dark winter.
00:00 |
00:35 | The main problem is the corrupt financial system
01:42 | Everything will either get worse or much worse
02:09 | Trump vs The Fed
03:35 | Control of the senate will be a key factor
04:05 | Emergency Economic Stabilization Act
05:00 | The Great Reset
05:53 | IMF Learning Coin
07:28 | The Green New Deal fantasy
08:28 | Biden’s Budget Plan
09:11 | The U.S. has both a foreign trade deficit and a budget deficit
10:12 | The U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 107%
10:40 | MMT (modern monetary theory)
11:22 | Get ready for a dark winter


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--The Democrats Are Aiming for a One-Party Government

The Democrats Are Aiming for a One-Party Government It was interview questions from a Russian journalist that made me realize that the Democrat Party was no longer merely a political party but had become a revolutionary party working toward an unaccountable one-party government .
Prior to the November 3 election , Democrats worked to remove protections that reduce fraud opportunities in voting by mail , thereby making ballot harvesting easy .
They were thinking ahead and in 2019 introduced H.R .
1 , a bill designed to open up additional vote fraud avenues .
The bill sponsored by Rep. John @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cover of “ making elections secure.
” The bill , which passed the House where the Democrats had a majority , also turns the District of Columbia into a state , which would give the Democrats two more members in the Senate and additional members of the House .
To control the federal Supreme Court , the bill calls for establishing rules of ethics that are binding on the Supreme Court .
In other words , the separation of powers and independence of the Court would be violated by Congress which could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ ethics ” rules that the Democrats would write .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell described the bill as a “ one-sided power grab ” that would not pass the Senate , and the bill didn ’ t .
But Democrats proceeded at the state and local level to loosen election integrity .
Looking at this altogether , we see the Democrats focusing on a loosening of election security , the creation of a new blue state , and subjecting the Supreme Court to the Democrats ’ rules .
The result would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters understand that the party has been transformed into an ideological revolutionary party that intends to overthrow “ white culture.
” The elite financiers of the Democrats have yet to catch on that once the Democrats have one-party rule they no longer need the billionaires and the lobbies .
I don ’ t think it has dawned on the military/security complex that its power is reduced by the rise of the one-party state .
Wars will be fought for revolutionary reasons against insuffuciently “ woke ” white governments and not for the power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Israel ’ s dominance in the Middle East .
It will be like the early stages of the French Revolution and the Bolshevik Revolution and very unlike the American Revolution .
Already Biden ’ s team is calling for restrictions on the First Amendment .
It will simply become impossible to dispute official explanations or for white Americans to defend themselves against false charges and demonization .
Biden ’ s team is also calling for open borders , so there will be plenty of immigrants whose votes can be harvested .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 election , it will be the end of American democracy .

by Paul Craig Roberts via PaulCraigRoberts.org
The Democrats Are Aiming for a One-Party Government
Paul Craig Roberts
It was interview questions from a Russian journalist that made me realize that the Democrat Party was no longer merely a political party but had become a revolutionary party working toward an unaccountable one-party government.
Prior to the November 3 election, Democrats worked to remove protections that reduce fraud opportunities in voting by mail, thereby making ballot harvesting easy. They were thinking ahead and in 2019 introduced H.R. 1, a bill designed to open up additional vote fraud avenues. The bill sponsored by Rep. John Sarbanes (D,MD) used the cover of “making elections secure.”
The bill, which passed the House where the Democrats had a majority, also turns the District of Columbia into a state, which would give the Democrats two more members in the Senate and additional members of the House.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
To control the federal Supreme Court, the bill calls for establishing rules of ethics that are binding on the Supreme Court. In other words, the separation of powers and independence of the Court would be violated by Congress which could circumscribe the Court’s rulings with “ethics” rules that the Democrats would write.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell described the bill as a “one-sided power grab” that would not pass the Senate, and the bill didn’t. But Democrats proceeded at the state and local level to loosen election integrity.
Looking at this altogether, we see the Democrats focusing on a loosening of election security, the creation of a new blue state, and subjecting the Supreme Court to the Democrats’ rules. The result would be a one party state.
Few Democrat voters understand that the party has been transformed into an ideological revolutionary party that intends to overthrow “white culture.” The elite financiers of the Democrats have yet to catch on that once the Democrats have one-party rule they no longer need the billionaires and the lobbies. I don’t think it has dawned on the military/security complex that its power is reduced by the rise of the one-party state.
Wars will be fought for revolutionary reasons against insuffuciently “woke” white governments and not for the power and profit of the military/security complex or for Israel’s dominance in the Middle East. It will be like the early stages of the French Revolution and the Bolshevik Revolution and very unlike the American Revolution. Already Biden’s team is calling for restrictions on the First Amendment. It will simply become impossible to dispute official explanations or for white Americans to defend themselves against false charges and demonization.
Biden’s team is also calling for open borders, so there will be plenty of immigrants whose votes can be harvested. If the Democrats get away with stealing the 2020 election, it will be the end of American democracy.


investmentwatchblog--2020-11-17--Gold & Silver Under The Biden Government

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics with Chris Marcus Despite the pervasive and omnipresent manipulation of the gold price implemented in the paper derivatives gold market – which in no way reflects the true supply/demand characteristics of the underlying market for physical gold and silver – gold has been the best performing asset over the last 20 years .
Silver has been the third best performing asset .
Sandwiched in between is U.S. REITs .
The economic , financial and geopolitical factors driving gold ’ s performance are now strengthening at an increasing rate .
Driving all three variables @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Central Banks , led by the Federal Reserve .
It is highly likely that the recent violent attack on the gold price is a precursor to another round of money printing .
This scenario is unavoidable regardless of whom or what Party occupies the Oval Office .
This in turn should catapult gold over $ 2,000 – for good this time .
Silver will quickly head over $ 30 .
The mining stocks will soar .
In this week ’ s podcast , Chris ( Arcadia Economics ) and I discuss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Biden Presidency : The Mining Stock Journal is a bi-weekly mining stock newsletter that focuses primarily on the junior exploration stocks .
The latest issue includes a review of a junior silver mining company with huge silver optionality .
You can learn more about this newsletter by following this link : Mining Stock Journal subscription information Note : I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter .
Furthermore , I invest in many of the ideas personally or @ @ @ @

by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics with Chris Marcus
Despite the pervasive and omnipresent manipulation of the gold price implemented in the paper derivatives gold market – which in no way reflects the true supply/demand characteristics of the underlying market for physical gold and silver – gold has been the best performing asset over the last 20 years. Silver has been the third best performing asset. Sandwiched in between is U.S. REITs.
The economic, financial and geopolitical factors driving gold’s performance are now strengthening at an increasing rate. Driving all three variables is the ongoing and escalating money printing by the Central Banks, led by the Federal Reserve. It is highly likely that the recent violent attack on the gold price is a precursor to another round of money printing. This scenario is unavoidable regardless of whom or what Party occupies the Oval Office.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This in turn should catapult gold over $2,000 – for good this time. Silver will quickly head over $30. The mining stocks will soar.
In this week’s podcast, Chris (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss the prospects for the precious metals under a Biden Presidency:
The Mining Stock Journal is a bi-weekly mining stock newsletter that focuses primarily on the junior exploration stocks. The latest issue includes a review of a junior silver mining company with huge silver optionality. You can learn more about this newsletter by following this link: Mining Stock Journal subscription information
Note: I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.