investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Tesla, the WTF Chart of the Year

Tesla, the WTF Chart of the Year

You ’ ve got to admire Musk for snookering true believers into buying $ 2 billion of new shares a month ago that are now down 52 % .
First a little history .
Back in the good old days of February 4 , 2020 , when Tesla CEO Elon Musk could still be seen walking on water , and when Tesla ’ s shares hit $ 960 ( and a little later $ 968.99 ) , I posted a chart , calling it the “ WTF chart of the year , ” and adding that I ’ m in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Supernatural Phenomenon : Parallel to the stock-price chart above , Tesla ’ s market cap skyrocketed by 168 % and by over $ 110 billion in about two months .
Which was of course ludicrous .
But what was even more ludicrous — well , outright hilarious — was the stuff that analysts and true-believers put out there rationalizing this spike , explaining with logical-sounding gobbledygook why this type of nutty price surge was normal and appropriate for Tesla , given that its CEO walks on water or whatever .
Today , Tesla @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , amid allegations that the company was flouting the lockdown order of Alameda County , one of the five San Francisco Bay Area counties that imposed a lockdown on nonessential businesses on Tuesday – that it was running its full two shifts , packing thousands of people together , including in dense lines at the doors of dozens of shuttle buses and other locations , and cranking out cars despite the County ’ s order to shut down .
The price of $ 361.22 is significant in the grander scheme .
Tesla is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in June 2017 .
So this is my updated “ WTF chart of the year , ” a phenomenal nearly symmetrical spike , similar to an old rusty railroad spike : In terms of a company with tens of billions of dollars in market cap , such as Tesla , this type of near-perfect three-month spike that went down slightly faster than up , and where the value of a company exploded by 168 % — and by $ 110 billion — and then collapsed , may be unique in US history .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ little-known stocks with tickers that get confused with some hot stock , can get this type of percentage spike , but those spikes don ’ t every create $ 110 billion in market cap in a few weeks , only to then unceremoniously unwind that $ 110 billion in market cap even faster .
Nevertheless , you ’ ve got to admire Tesla , or rather Musk , for snookering true-believer investors .
These folks had it coming .
Musk , still walking on water , snookered them gloriously into buying over $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issued on the way down of the spike , on February 13 , for $ 767 a share .
Tesla needs the money .
It is using the $ 2 billion to fuel its cash-burn machine .
And the investors are sitting on a one-month loss of 53 % .
But this WTF chart shows just how crazy the stock market was in early February , how euphoria-besotted stock-jockeys and spaghetti-code algos would do anything , no matter what , as long as it was buy , buy , buy .
This kind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had gone nuts , that reality would eventually exert itself again at least a tiny little bit , and that the whole house of cards was utterly ripe for an implosion .
And that ’ s what we got with Tesla , and with the stock market overall .
Even now , Tesla is still overvalued by a huge amount .
And reality is still far away , but getting rid of that spike was a good first step in the right direction .

You’ve got to admire Musk for snookering true believers into buying $2 billion of new shares a month ago that are now down 52%.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET:
First a little history. Back in the good old days of February 4, 2020, when Tesla CEO Elon Musk could still be seen walking on water, and when Tesla’s shares hit $960 (and a little later $968.99), I posted a chart, calling it the “WTF chart of the year,” and adding that I’m in Awe of How Tesla is Now a Supernatural Phenomenon:
Parallel to the stock-price chart above, Tesla’s market cap skyrocketed by 168% and by over $110 billion in about two months. Which was of course ludicrous. But what was even more ludicrous — well, outright hilarious — was the stuff that analysts and true-believers put out there rationalizing this spike, explaining with logical-sounding gobbledygook why this type of nutty price surge was normal and appropriate for Tesla, given that its CEO walks on water or whatever.
Today, Tesla shares plunged 16% to $361.22, amid allegations that the company was flouting the lockdown order of Alameda County, one of the five San Francisco Bay Area counties that imposed a lockdown on nonessential businesses on Tuesday – that it was running its full two shifts, packing thousands of people together, including in dense lines at the doors of dozens of shuttle buses and other locations, and cranking out cars despite the County’s order to shut down.
The price of $361.22 is significant in the grander scheme. Tesla is now back where it had first been in June 2017. So this is my updated “WTF chart of the year,” a phenomenal nearly symmetrical spike, similar to an old rusty railroad spike:
In terms of a company with tens of billions of dollars in market cap, such as Tesla, this type of near-perfect three-month spike that went down slightly faster than up, and where the value of a company exploded by 168% — and by $110 billion — and then collapsed, may be unique in US history.
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Penny stocks, scam stocks, or little-known stocks with tickers that get confused with some hot stock, can get this type of percentage spike, but those spikes don’t every create $110 billion in market cap in a few weeks, only to then unceremoniously unwind that $110 billion in market cap even faster.
Nevertheless, you’ve got to admire Tesla, or rather Musk, for snookering true-believer investors. These folks had it coming. Musk, still walking on water, snookered them gloriously into buying over $2 billion of new shares that Tesla issued on the way down of the spike, on February 13, for $767 a share.
Tesla needs the money. It is using the $2 billion to fuel its cash-burn machine. And the investors are sitting on a one-month loss of 53%.
But this WTF chart shows just how crazy the stock market was in early February, how euphoria-besotted stock-jockeys and spaghetti-code algos would do anything, no matter what, as long as it was buy, buy, buy.
This kind of spike shows that the market overall had gone nuts, that reality would eventually exert itself again at least a tiny little bit, and that the whole house of cards was utterly ripe for an implosion.
And that’s what we got with Tesla, and with the stock market overall. Even now, Tesla is still overvalued by a huge amount. And reality is still far away, but getting rid of that spike was a good first step in the right direction.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--European Banks Face Financial Crisis 2, Shares Hit 1988 Lows

The ECB promised “ to monitor markets closely.
” Then it came out with a new bond buying binge .
Bank stocks in Europe plumbed fresh mutli-decade lows despite the release of a hurriedly improvised one-paragraph announcement by the ECB pledging to do just about whatever it could take to keep the banking system in tact .
The ECB will continue “ to monitor markets closely ” , the message read , and is “ ready to adjust all of its measures , as appropriate , should this be needed to safeguard liquidity conditions in the banking system.
” In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to throw what remains of the kitchen sink at the problem .
The message may have been intended to reassure investors , calm market jitters , and stop the sell-off of sovereign bonds and bank shares but if anything , it had the opposite effect .
The Stoxx 600 Banks index , which covers major European banks , fell 3.7 % to close at 83 , below even the multi-decade low of 87 in March 2009 , at the bottom of the first Financial Crisis this century .
Today ’ s close was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sell-off that followed Black Monday in October 1987 .
The index has collapsed by 85 % since its peak in May 2007 , after having quadrupled over the preceding 12 years : The almost vertical collapse of those shares over the past four weeks is but the latest episode in a 13-year story of decline .
The Stoxx 600 bank index has slumped by 85 % since its peak in May 2007 , But what is the ECB going to do to rescue bank shareholders ?
Not much .
The ECB is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together .
Unlike the Fed , whose 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks are owned by the banks in their districts , and to whom bank stocks are therefore hugely important , the ECB couldn ’ t care less about bank stocks , as long as the banks themselves don ’ t collapse .
So it has thrown just about everything it has at the problem of keeping the Eurozone in tact , including conjuring up €4.7 trillion ( $ 5.2 trillion ) of fresh money , and pushing its policy rates and many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with largely undesirable consequences for banks and their shares .
On top of it comes the impact of the coronavirus .
The Stoxx 600 Banks Index has plunged 45 % since February 17 , going to heck in a ( nearly ) straight line , and is down by 58 % since January 2018 : By all appearances , we are headed into yet another full-blown financial crisis , triggered not by the banks this time but by the response to the coronavirus , which is now reverberating throughout the system and hitting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , neither the Fed nor the ECB have managed to get a grip on this new crisis , which is moving far faster than the last one .
Bank bonds are selling off , particularly the “ senior non-preferred bonds , ” a new creature road-tested three years ago by France ’ s biggest bank .
These bonds lured many investors with the promise of a slightly positive yield .
It ’ s “ bail-in-able ” debt .
In return for the tiniest of returns ( say , a yield of 2 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt that can be turned into worthless equity or be cancelled the moment a bank begins to wobble .
Not surprisingly , investors are trying to offload them as quickly as they can , reports the FT. Today , the ECB , in a bid to reassure investors , said that it is directly intervening in sovereign debt markets with a €750 billion bond-buying binge for the rest of 2020 , including Greek bonds for the first time , and Italian bonds , whose yields have spiked sharply in recent days .
Italian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks all over the continent , particularly Italian and French ones .
The more they fall , the weaker the banks ’ capital buffers get .
Despite the ECB ’ s intervention , the yield on the ten-year bond still rose by over 5 % today to 2.43 % , its highest level since last last June .
The ECB also walked back prior remarks by Austrian central-bank governor Robert Holzmann that suggested that the ECB would take little further action beyond cutting interest rates even further into negative territory , which has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , and providing emergency liquidity lines for the same banks that are being slowly killed by the negative interest rates .
No publicly listed lender , big or small , has been spared by the latest rout .
Below , in descending order , is a list of the worst-hit large publicly traded banks in Europe .
The first percentage is the amount by which the bank ’ s shares have fallen since February 17 , when the Coronavirus began spreading like wildfire through northern Italy , causing everything to go to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by which they have fallen since Jan 1 , 2018 .
We ’ ll leave it up to your imagination what the percent-drop from the peak in May 2007 would look like : These ten banks are Europe ’ s financial flag carriers .
Though some of them have been shrinking in size , complexity , and risk , including Deutsche Bank .
Nonetheless , they are still recognized as global systemically important banks ( G-SIBs ) due to the size , scope and inter-connectedness of their assets .
If any one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shock wave throughout the global financial system .
Many of Europe ’ s second-tier banks , whose collapse would have significant repercussions at the regional level , at the very least , have also seen their shares plunge in the past four weeks .
Spain ’ s BBVA is down 52 % ( and 64 % since Jan 2018 ) , Germany ’ s Commerzbank , in which the state still holds are big share from the last bailout , is down 54 % ( and -75 % ) .
Italy ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 50 % ) .
While the recent share collapse of seventh and eighth-placed Unicredit and Deutsche Bank has been slightly less pronounced than many of the region ’ s other large banks , their overall decline since the global financial crisis has been far greater than any of their other peers .
Deutsche Bank has lost more than 95 % of its market value since 2007 and Unicredit more than 98 % .
By Nick Corbishley , for WOLF STREET .

The ECB promised “to monitor markets closely.” Then it came out with a new bond buying binge.
Bank stocks in Europe plumbed fresh mutli-decade lows despite the release of a hurriedly improvised one-paragraph announcement by the ECB pledging to do just about whatever it could take to keep the banking system in tact. The ECB will continue “to monitor markets closely”, the message read, and is “ready to adjust all of its measures, as appropriate, should this be needed to safeguard liquidity conditions in the banking system.” In other words, the ECB is willing to throw what remains of the kitchen sink at the problem.
The message may have been intended to reassure investors, calm market jitters, and stop the sell-off of sovereign bonds and bank shares but if anything, it had the opposite effect. The Stoxx 600 Banks index, which covers major European banks, fell 3.7% to close at 83, below even the multi-decade low of 87 in March 2009, at the bottom of the first Financial Crisis this century. Today’s close was the lowest since February 1988, during the sell-off that followed Black Monday in October 1987. The index has collapsed by 85% since its peak in May 2007, after having quadrupled over the preceding 12 years:
The almost vertical collapse of those shares over the past four weeks is but the latest episode in a 13-year story of decline. The Stoxx 600 bank index has slumped by 85% since its peak in May 2007,
But what is the ECB going to do to rescue bank shareholders? Not much. The ECB is primarily concerned with keeping the Eurozone duct-taped together. Unlike the Fed, whose 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks are owned by the banks in their districts, and to whom bank stocks are therefore hugely important, the ECB couldn’t care less about bank stocks, as long as the banks themselves don’t collapse. So it has thrown just about everything it has at the problem of keeping the Eurozone in tact, including conjuring up €4.7 trillion ($5.2 trillion) of fresh money, and pushing its policy rates and many bond yields into the negative, but with largely undesirable consequences for banks and their shares.
On top of it comes the impact of the coronavirus. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index has plunged 45% since February 17, going to heck in a (nearly) straight line, and is down by 58% since January 2018:
By all appearances, we are headed into yet another full-blown financial crisis, triggered not by the banks this time but by the response to the coronavirus, which is now reverberating throughout the system and hitting the already weak banks. So far, neither the Fed nor the ECB have managed to get a grip on this new crisis, which is moving far faster than the last one.
Bank bonds are selling off, particularly the “senior non-preferred bonds,” a new creature road-tested three years ago by France’s biggest bank. These bonds lured many investors with the promise of a slightly positive yield. It’s “bail-in-able” debt. In return for the tiniest of returns (say, a yield of 2%), you basically get to hold debt that can be turned into worthless equity or be cancelled the moment a bank begins to wobble. Not surprisingly, investors are trying to offload them as quickly as they can, reports the FT.
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Today, the ECB, in a bid to reassure investors, said that it is directly intervening in sovereign debt markets with a €750 billion bond-buying binge for the rest of 2020, including Greek bonds for the first time, and Italian bonds, whose yields have spiked sharply in recent days. Italian bonds are held in huge numbers by banks all over the continent, particularly Italian and French ones. The more they fall, the weaker the banks’ capital buffers get. Despite the ECB’s intervention, the yield on the ten-year bond still rose by over 5% today to 2.43%, its highest level since last last June.
The ECB also walked back prior remarks by Austrian central-bank governor Robert Holzmann that suggested that the ECB would take little further action beyond cutting interest rates even further into negative territory, which has been decimating banks’ interest margins for years, and providing emergency liquidity lines for the same banks that are being slowly killed by the negative interest rates.
No publicly listed lender, big or small, has been spared by the latest rout. Below, in descending order, is a list of the worst-hit large publicly traded banks in Europe. The first percentage is the amount by which the bank’s shares have fallen since February 17, when the Coronavirus began spreading like wildfire through northern Italy, causing everything to go to heck. In parentheses is the amount by which they have fallen since Jan 1, 2018. We’ll leave it up to your imagination what the percent-drop from the peak in May 2007 would look like:
Société Générale (France): -56% (-67%) ING (Netherlands): -54% (-73%) Credit Agricole (France): -53% (-57%) Santander (Spain): -52% (-64%) Barclays (UK): -53% (59%) BNP Paribas (France): -52% (-58%) Unicredit (Italy): -51% (-57%) Deutsche Bank (Germany) -50% (-68%) Credit Suisse (Switzerland): -49% (-62%) RBS (UK, majority state-owned): -39% (-54%)
These ten banks are Europe’s financial flag carriers. Though some of them have been shrinking in size, complexity, and risk, including Deutsche Bank. Nonetheless, they are still recognized as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) due to the size, scope and inter-connectedness of their assets. If any one of them collapses it will set off a shock wave throughout the global financial system.
Many of Europe’s second-tier banks, whose collapse would have significant repercussions at the regional level, at the very least, have also seen their shares plunge in the past four weeks. Spain’s BBVA is down 52% (and 64% since Jan 2018), Germany’s Commerzbank, in which the state still holds are big share from the last bailout, is down 54% (and -75%). Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo is down 44% (and 50%).
While the recent share collapse of seventh and eighth-placed Unicredit and Deutsche Bank has been slightly less pronounced than many of the region’s other large banks, their overall decline since the global financial crisis has been far greater than any of their other peers. Deutsche Bank has lost more than 95% of its market value since 2007 and Unicredit more than 98%. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--The Global Repricing of Assets Can’t Be Stopped

The financial elites are pushing a narrative that asset prices , sales and profits will all return to January 2020 levels as soon as the Covid-19 pandemic fades .
Get real , baby .
Nothing is going back to January 2020 levels .
Rather than the “ V-shaped recovery ” expected by Goldman Sachs et al.
, the crash in asset prices will eventually gather momentum .
Why ?
It ’ s simple : for 20 years we ’ ve over-invested in speculative bubbles and squandered borrowed money on consumption and under-invested in productivity-increasing assets .
To understand why the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower–a process sure to be interrupted with manic rallies and false dawns of hope that a return to speculative good times is just around the corner–let ’ s start with the basics : the only sustainable way to increase broad-based wealth is to boost productivity across the entire economy .
That means producing more goods and services with less capital , less labor and fewer inputs such as energy .
Rather than boost productivity , we ’ ve lowered productivity via mal-investment and by propping up unproductive sectors with immense sums of borrowed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ child for this dynamic is higher education : rather than being pushed to innovate as costs skyrocketed , the higher education cartel passed its inefficiencies and bloated cost structure onto students , who have paid for the bloat with $ 1 .
6 trillion in student loans few can afford .
( See chart below . )
As for Corporate America squandering $ 4.5 trillion on stock buybacks ( Wolf Richter ) – the effective gains on productivity from this stupendous sum is not just zero–it ’ s negative , as the resulting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who ’ d been stripped of safe returns by the Federal Reserve ’ s low-interest-rates-forever policy .
What could that $ 4.5 trillion have purchased in terms of increasing the productivity of the entire economy ?
Considerably more than the zero productivity generated by stock buybacks .
The net result of uneven gains in productivity and the asymmetric distribution of whatever gains have been made is stagnant wages for the bottom 90 % and rising costs for everyone .
Those of us who are self-employed or owners of small businesses know that healthcare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 % or more annually for years .
Whatever gains in health that have been purchased with the additional trillions of dollars poured into the healthcare cartels have been offset with declining life spans , soaring addictions to opioids and numerous broad-based declines in overall health .
The widespread addiction to smartphones and social media have deranged and distracted millions , crushing productivity while greatly increasing loneliness , insecurity and a host of social ills .
Two dynamics define the economy in the 21st century : 1 .
We have substituted debt-driven speculation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ substituted debt for earnings This is why the repricing of speculative-bubble assets can ’ t be stopped : debt-driven speculation is not a sustainable substitute for investing in increasing productivity , and debt-fueled consumption masquerading as “ investment ” is not a sustainable substitute for limiting consumption to what we earn and save .
All bubbles pop , period .
Once Corporate America ’ s credit lines are pulled and its revenues and profits plummet , the financial manipulation of stock buybacks will end .
That spells the end of the 12-year bull @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of speculative mania ebbs and confidence wanes , the world ’ s housing bubbles will all pop , and the $ 1.4 million bungalows will drift back down to their Bubble # 1 highs around $ 400,000 , and perhaps even drop from there .
As for collectibles and other play-things of the super-wealthy : the bids will soon vanish and yachts will be set adrift to avoid paying the dock fees .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
All bubbles pop, period.
The financial elites are pushing a narrative that asset prices, sales and profits will all return to January 2020 levels as soon as the Covid-19 pandemic fades. Get real, baby. Nothing is going back to January 2020 levels. Rather than the “V-shaped recovery” expected by Goldman Sachs et al., the crash in asset prices will eventually gather momentum.
Why? It’s simple: for 20 years we’ve over-invested in speculative bubbles and squandered borrowed money on consumption and under-invested in productivity-increasing assets. To understand why the market value of assets will relentlessly reprice lower–a process sure to be interrupted with manic rallies and false dawns of hope that a return to speculative good times is just around the corner–let’s start with the basics: the only sustainable way to increase broad-based wealth is to boost productivity across the entire economy.
That means producing more goods and services with less capital, less labor and fewer inputs such as energy.
Rather than boost productivity, we’ve lowered productivity via mal-investment and by propping up unproductive sectors with immense sums of borrowed money–money that accrues interest.
The poster child for this dynamic is higher education: rather than being pushed to innovate as costs skyrocketed, the higher education cartel passed its inefficiencies and bloated cost structure onto students, who have paid for the bloat with $1. 6 trillion in student loans few can afford. (See chart below.)
As for Corporate America squandering $4.5 trillion on stock buybacks (Wolf Richter)– the effective gains on productivity from this stupendous sum is not just zero–it’s negative, as the resulting speculative bubble suckered in institutions and individuals who’d been stripped of safe returns by the Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rates-forever policy.
What could that $4.5 trillion have purchased in terms of increasing the productivity of the entire economy? Considerably more than the zero productivity generated by stock buybacks.
The net result of uneven gains in productivity and the asymmetric distribution of whatever gains have been made is stagnant wages for the bottom 90% and rising costs for everyone. Those of us who are self-employed or owners of small businesses know that healthcare insurance costs have been ratcheting higher by 10% or more annually for years.
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Whatever gains in health that have been purchased with the additional trillions of dollars poured into the healthcare cartels have been offset with declining life spans, soaring addictions to opioids and numerous broad-based declines in overall health.
The widespread addiction to smartphones and social media have deranged and distracted millions, crushing productivity while greatly increasing loneliness, insecurity and a host of social ills.
Two dynamics define the economy in the 21st century:
1. We have substituted debt-driven speculation for productive investment
2. We have substituted debt for earnings
This is why the repricing of speculative-bubble assets can’t be stopped: debt-driven speculation is not a sustainable substitute for investing in increasing productivity, and debt-fueled consumption masquerading as “investment” is not a sustainable substitute for limiting consumption to what we earn and save.
All bubbles pop, period. Once Corporate America’s credit lines are pulled and its revenues and profits plummet, the financial manipulation of stock buybacks will end. That spells the end of the 12-year bull market in stocks.
As the tide of speculative mania ebbs and confidence wanes, the world’s housing bubbles will all pop, and the $1.4 million bungalows will drift back down to their Bubble #1 highs around $400,000, and perhaps even drop from there.
As for collectibles and other play-things of the super-wealthy: the bids will soon vanish and yachts will be set adrift to avoid paying the dock fees.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--The U.S. Government Is Preparing For An 18 Month Pandemic And “Critical Shortages”

Are you prepared for the nationwide shutdown that is happening now to last for the next 18 months ?
You may not believe that such a thing will happen , but the federal government apparently does .
A 100 page government plan marked “ For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release ” was obtained by the New York Times , and it paints a very bleak picture of what is coming .
If the projections in this document are anywhere close to accurate , large numbers of Americans will die , the U.S. economy will completely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civil unrest .
So let us pray that the assessments in this government plan turn out to be dead wrong .
According to the document , this coronavirus pandemic “ will last 18 months or longer ” … A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “ will last 18 months or longer ” and could include “ multiple waves , ” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation ’ s health care system .
The 100-page plan , dated Friday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national emergency , laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector .
I can ’ t even imagine what our country would look like if current conditions stretched into the middle of 2021 .
As a nation , I don ’ t believe that we would be able to handle it .
The document also envisions that there will be “ critical shortages ” … Of course there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of many basic consumer products such as toilet paper .
Sadly , things could soon get much worse .
Meanwhile , the overall economy continues to collapse at a staggering pace .
A former economic adviser to President Trump is now warning us that the U.S. economy could lose up to a million jobs this month alone… But if this pandemic continues to escalate , a million jobs lost will just be a drop in the bucket .
In fact , the National Restaurant Association is now projecting that their industry will lose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” … Remember , that is just one industry .
The retail industry is also being completely devastated as well , and we just learned that the largest operator of shopping malls in the United States is shutting them all down… Of course they won ’ t actually open back up on March 29th if this pandemic continues to get worse .
So far , COVID-19 has killed less than 200 Americans .
If our society is being this disrupted now , what will things be like if the death toll becomes 1,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have warned that our economy was extremely vulnerable , and now that is becoming exceedingly obvious to everyone .
It certainly didn ’ t take too much of a push to burst all the bubbles and send everyone into a severe panic , and now the economy is collapsing at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking .
According to NBC News , state unemployment websites all over the nation are crashing because so many people are suddenly applying for unemployment benefits… Tomorrow morning most Americans will wake up assuming that their jobs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of people are being let go without any advance warning whatsoever .
Here is one example… We have never seen anything like this before .
Things were tough during World War II , but it was actually a time when the country geared up and worked extremely hard to defeat the enemy .
But now economic activity all over America is being brought to a screeching halt .
In fact , we just learned that the three largest automakers have shut down all of their U.S. factories… As a nation , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But if life doesn ’ t get back to normal for “ 18 months ” , we are going to witness a societal meltdown of epic proportions .
This week , investor Bill Ackman told CNBC that “ hell is coming ” , and he warned that unless the entire country is shut down simultaneously for an extended period of time “ America will end as we know it ” … I believe that he makes an excellent point , but I would take it one step further .
If the entire world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic would quickly be brought under control .
If only the U.S. shuts down , it is inevitable that the virus would keep coming back into the country as the pandemic continues raging elsewhere on the globe .
Of course we aren ’ t going to get the entire globe to agree to shut down simultaneously for 30 days .
So this outbreak will continue to spread and the case numbers will continue to grow .
For a long time I have been warning that something would come along that would burst all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meltdown .
Now it is upon us , but now is not a time for fear .
With God ’ s help , we will get through this .
But life is not going to go back to the way it was before .

by Michael Snyder
Are you prepared for the nationwide shutdown that is happening now to last for the next 18 months? You may not believe that such a thing will happen, but the federal government apparently does. A 100 page government plan marked “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release” was obtained by the New York Times, and it paints a very bleak picture of what is coming. If the projections in this document are anywhere close to accurate, large numbers of Americans will die, the U.S. economy will completely implode, and we will see widespread civil unrest. So let us pray that the assessments in this government plan turn out to be dead wrong.
According to the document, this coronavirus pandemic “will last 18 months or longer”…
A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system. The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector.
I can’t even imagine what our country would look like if current conditions stretched into the middle of 2021.
As a nation, I don’t believe that we would be able to handle it.
The document also envisions that there will be “critical shortages”…
“Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including PPE and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.” P.P.E. refers to personal protective equipment.
Of course there are already shortages of some drugs and of many basic consumer products such as toilet paper.
Sadly, things could soon get much worse.
Meanwhile, the overall economy continues to collapse at a staggering pace. A former economic adviser to President Trump is now warning us that the U.S. economy could lose up to a million jobs this month alone…
Kevin Hassett, who served as a top economic adviser to President Trump until last summer, said Monday that the United States economy could shed as many as one million jobs in March alone because of layoffs and hiring freezes related to the coronavirus. “If you have normal job disruption, and hiring just stops,” Mr. Hassett said, “you’ll have the worst jobs number ever.”
But if this pandemic continues to escalate, a million jobs lost will just be a drop in the bucket.
In fact, the National Restaurant Association is now projecting that their industry will lose “between five and seven million jobs”…
The National Restaurant Association is predicting the unprecedented carnage is only just beginning, on Wednesday writing a letter to the White House and Congress detailing an estimated $225 billion in sales will be wiped out over the next three months, crucially prompting the loss of between five and seven million jobs.
Remember, that is just one industry.
The retail industry is also being completely devastated as well, and we just learned that the largest operator of shopping malls in the United States is shutting them all down…
Simon Property Group, the largest owner of shopping malls in the nation, is closing all of its malls and retail properties because of the coronavirus outbreak. The closings start at 7 p.m. local time Wednesday and the malls are expected to end March 29, the Indianapolis-based company said in a news release.
Of course they won’t actually open back up on March 29th if this pandemic continues to get worse.
So far, COVID-19 has killed less than 200 Americans.
If our society is being this disrupted now, what will things be like if the death toll becomes 1,000 times larger?
For years, I have warned that our economy was extremely vulnerable, and now that is becoming exceedingly obvious to everyone. It certainly didn’t take too much of a push to burst all the bubbles and send everyone into a severe panic, and now the economy is collapsing at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking.
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According to NBC News, state unemployment websites all over the nation are crashing because so many people are suddenly applying for unemployment benefits…
Workers who have suddenly found themselves without a paycheck because of the growing coronavirus pandemic in the United States are now dealing with another frustration — state unemployment websites crashing because of high traffic. From Oregon to New York and Washington, D.C., officials and Twitter users have highlighted the problem after the mass closing of restaurants, retail stores and other businesses as part of the effort to slow the spread of the virus.
Tomorrow morning most Americans will wake up assuming that their jobs are safe. But right now an increasing number of people are being let go without any advance warning whatsoever. Here is one example…
Eileen Hanley was wrapping up her weekend and getting ready for the week ahead on Sunday evening when an email popped up in her inbox with the subject line “COVID-19 uncertainty.” It was from her boss at the small Manhattan law firm where she worked part time as a receptionist. “We hope you are feeling well during this time,” the email began. Then it cut to the chase: The firm was losing revenue because of the outbreak, and it would have to eliminate “a number of positions,” including hers, “effective immediately.”
We have never seen anything like this before.
Things were tough during World War II, but it was actually a time when the country geared up and worked extremely hard to defeat the enemy.
But now economic activity all over America is being brought to a screeching halt. In fact, we just learned that the three largest automakers have shut down all of their U.S. factories…
Detroit’s Big Three automakers plan to temporarily close all U.S. factories as the coronavirus sweeps across the country. The companies bowed to pressure from union leaders and employees who called for protection from the pandemic that’s spread to more than 212,000 people in nearly every country across the globe.
As a nation, we would survive a 30 day shutdown.
But if life doesn’t get back to normal for “18 months”, we are going to witness a societal meltdown of epic proportions.
This week, investor Bill Ackman told CNBC that “hell is coming”, and he warned that unless the entire country is shut down simultaneously for an extended period of time “America will end as we know it”…
“What’s scaring the American people and corporate America now is the gradual rollout,” Ackman told Scott Wapner on “Halftime Report” on Wednesday. “We need to shut it down now. … This is the only answer.” “America will end as we know it. I’m sorry to say so, unless we take this option,” he said. Ackman added that if Trump saves the country from the coronavirus, he will get reelected in November.
I believe that he makes an excellent point, but I would take it one step further.
If the entire world shut down for 30 days, this pandemic would quickly be brought under control. If only the U.S. shuts down, it is inevitable that the virus would keep coming back into the country as the pandemic continues raging elsewhere on the globe.
Of course we aren’t going to get the entire globe to agree to shut down simultaneously for 30 days.
So this outbreak will continue to spread and the case numbers will continue to grow.
For a long time I have been warning that something would come along that would burst all the bubbles and trigger a horrifying economic meltdown.
Now it is upon us, but now is not a time for fear.
With God’s help, we will get through this.
But life is not going to go back to the way it was before.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Are You Ready To Have Your Civil Liberties Severely Restricted? Because That Is Where This Thing Is

Are You Ready To Have Your Civil Liberties Severely Restricted? Because That Is Where This Thing Is Headed…

One of the things that sets the United States apart from the rest of the world is that we are supposed to have certain civil liberties guaranteed to us by the U.S. Constitution .
Of course the U.S. Constitution has been absolutely trampled on by many of our leaders for decades , but most Americans still deeply cherish the basic rights which are enshrined in our founding document .
Unfortunately , many of our politicians are convinced that all of those rights can be taken away during a “ national emergency ” , and these days the bar for declaring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set very low .
Yes , this coronavirus pandemic is a major threat , and experts are warning that millions of Americans could die .
But in the process of fighting this virus , we don ’ t want to relinquish the freedoms that previous generations of Americans fought so hard to secure for us .
As history has demonstrated , once certain freedoms are gone they can be exceedingly difficult to get back .
We are now being warned that this pandemic could last 18 months or longer , and losing any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absolutely unthinkable .
Unfortunately , some of our politicians are apparently thinking about the unthinkable .
I would like for you to consider something that California Governor Gavin Newsom just told the media very carefully… Does that mean that later on it may become “ a necessity ” ?
And why would he even dare to use the term “ martial law ” anyway ?
Less than 200 Americans have died during this pandemic so far .
Yes , the numbers are rising rapidly , but no politician in their right mind should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” to escape from their lips .
That is just going to freak everyone out and cause even more panic .
Without a doubt , citizens of California are already on edge due to the severe restrictions that have already been implemented .
In southern California , Orange County officials have decided to ban virtually all “ public and private gatherings ” … And in northern California , nearly 8 million people have essentially been “ locked down ” … Hopefully these measures will slow the spread of the virus .
But what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless the other 49 states enact similar lockdowns at the same time , people are going to keep bringing the virus back into the state .
At this point COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire all over the nation .
If you can believe it , even a couple members of Congress have now caught the virus… But most Americans still seem to believe that this pandemic isn ’ t actually that serious .
In fact , one new survey found that a whopping 62 percent of all Americans believe that the mainstream media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” … To me , the mainstream media was actually very slow to recognize the seriousness of this story .
If they had started warning people much earlier , we would be in far better shape today .
I keep trying to get people to understand that you do not want this virus .
If you doubt this , just consider the immense suffering that one survivor went through… Does that sound like it is “ just like the flu ” to you ?
Sadly , the truth is that we are just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
According to Dr. Deborah Birx , it is likely that the number of confirmed cases inside the U.S. will “ dramatically increase ” over the next several days… And even though there are now more than 3,000 confirmed cases in the state of New York alone , Governor Andrew Cuomo is warning that he believes that the virus “ is much more widespread than any of these numbers suggest ” … So yes , this virus is a very serious threat and this pandemic requires a very strong national response .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a way to fight this virus and maintain our constitutional rights at the same time .
I understand that it isn ’ t always going to be easy to find the right balance , and the temptation for our leaders to overreact is going to be overwhelming at times .
But defeating this virus won ’ t be any sort of a “ victory ” if we lose what it means to be Americans while we are doing it .
So let us battle COVID-19 with great courage , but let us also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are threatened .

by Michael Snyder
One of the things that sets the United States apart from the rest of the world is that we are supposed to have certain civil liberties guaranteed to us by the U.S. Constitution. Of course the U.S. Constitution has been absolutely trampled on by many of our leaders for decades, but most Americans still deeply cherish the basic rights which are enshrined in our founding document. Unfortunately, many of our politicians are convinced that all of those rights can be taken away during a “national emergency”, and these days the bar for declaring a “national emergency” has been set very low. Yes, this coronavirus pandemic is a major threat, and experts are warning that millions of Americans could die. But in the process of fighting this virus, we don’t want to relinquish the freedoms that previous generations of Americans fought so hard to secure for us. As history has demonstrated, once certain freedoms are gone they can be exceedingly difficult to get back. We are now being warned that this pandemic could last 18 months or longer, and losing any of our freedoms for that long is absolutely unthinkable.
Unfortunately, some of our politicians are apparently thinking about the unthinkable.
I would like for you to consider something that California Governor Gavin Newsom just told the media very carefully…
California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a Sunday presser said that martial law was not necessary to combat coronavirus in his state. “If you want to establish a framework of martial law, which is ultimate authority and enforcement, we have the capacity to do that, but we are not feeling at this moment that is a necessity,” Newsom said.
At this moment?
Does that mean that later on it may become “a necessity”?
And why would he even dare to use the term “martial law” anyway?
Less than 200 Americans have died during this pandemic so far. Yes, the numbers are rising rapidly, but no politician in their right mind should be allowing the term “martial law” to escape from their lips.
That is just going to freak everyone out and cause even more panic.
Without a doubt, citizens of California are already on edge due to the severe restrictions that have already been implemented. In southern California, Orange County officials have decided to ban virtually all “public and private gatherings”…
Orange County officials Tuesday took unprecedented action by banning all public and private gathers beyond those of a single household as jurisdictions across the world grapple with the spread of coronavirus. County health officer Dr. Nicole Quick issued the order effective immediately prohibiting “all public and private gatherings of any number of people, including at places of work, occurring outside a single household or living space.”
And in northern California, nearly 8 million people have essentially been “locked down”…
In Northern California, about 8 million people have been ordered to shelter in place. The Southern California city of Palm Springs issued a similar mandate. In all one in four Californians live in an area where there is a stay at home when possible order.
Hopefully these measures will slow the spread of the virus.
But what if they don’t?
And unless the other 49 states enact similar lockdowns at the same time, people are going to keep bringing the virus back into the state.
At this point COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire all over the nation. If you can believe it, even a couple members of Congress have now caught the virus…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Two members of Congress, Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart and Ben McAdams, have tested positive for coronavirus in one day, causing other members who may have been exposed to go into self-quarantine and raising the question of whether there are more cases on Capitol Hill.
But most Americans still seem to believe that this pandemic isn’t actually that serious.
In fact, one new survey found that a whopping 62 percent of all Americans believe that the mainstream media “has exaggerated the threat of coronavirus”…
62 percent of Americans believe that the media has exaggerated the threat of coronavirus, according to a new Pew Research poll. The results of the survey found that 63 percent of Americans believe the CDC and public health officials have got the risk of COID-19 about right, with just 21 percent believing they have exaggerated the risks.
To me, the mainstream media was actually very slow to recognize the seriousness of this story.
If they had started warning people much earlier, we would be in far better shape today.
I keep trying to get people to understand that you do not want this virus.
If you doubt this, just consider the immense suffering that one survivor went through…
“Imagine your lungs turning solid. It’s like suffocating without holding your nose,” said Harris who owns an auto body shop and typically run 5 miles every day. “Every time I lay down my breathing gets lower and lower. I thought my lungs would fail me. I was screaming for mercy and praying to God.”
Does that sound like it is “just like the flu” to you?
Sadly, the truth is that we are just in the very early chapters of this pandemic. According to Dr. Deborah Birx, it is likely that the number of confirmed cases inside the U.S. will “dramatically increase” over the next several days…
“We will see the number of people diagnosed dramatically increase over the next four to five days,” Dr. Deborah Birx, of the White House’s coronavirus task force, said at a news conference. The number of cases in New York state grew by more than 1,200. More than 500 of those were in New York City.
And even though there are now more than 3,000 confirmed cases in the state of New York alone, Governor Andrew Cuomo is warning that he believes that the virus “is much more widespread than any of these numbers suggest”…
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said there are likely “tens of thousands” of COVID-19 cases in the state by residents who never knew they had the illness.” An increase in testing is “revealing more cases,” Cuomo said Wednesday on CNN’s “The Situation Room” with Wolf Blitzer. “I think it is much more widespread than any of these numbers suggest.”
So yes, this virus is a very serious threat and this pandemic requires a very strong national response.
However, we have got to find a way to fight this virus and maintain our constitutional rights at the same time.
I understand that it isn’t always going to be easy to find the right balance, and the temptation for our leaders to overreact is going to be overwhelming at times.
But defeating this virus won’t be any sort of a “victory” if we lose what it means to be Americans while we are doing it.
So let us battle COVID-19 with great courage, but let us also carefully guard our constitutional rights whenever they are threatened.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--5 Benefits of Individual Voluntary Arrangement (IVA)

Dealing in debt is never easy !
If you have a small debt , you just have to make the small payments regularly to get out of it .
But when you have a big debt , not only you have to manage a good amount of money that you do not already have , but you have to deal with the stress as well .
When one is dealing with debt , they should never panic .
It does not matter how hard the situation is there is always a way to get out of it .
You can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or friends , or you can redesign your budget and start making monthly payments .
One of the ways that can help you get out of the debt is Individual voluntary arrangement , aka IVA .
It is a contract designed for people who are buried in debt to help them get out of it .
IVA is basically a legal agreement between a lender and the person in debt , which allows the debt holder to pay off a chunk of the owed money over a decided period of time , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s have a look at a few benefits IVA provides .
The biggest advantage of an IVA is that it allows you to make one affordable payment per month .
The amount is decided after keeping your monthly income in mind , which ensures that no matter what happens , you will be able to make your payments right on time .
You would not have to worry anymore , as now you know the fee is only a chunk of your monthly income , which is manageable .
If you want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can click here to learn more .
Another benefit of IVA is that unlike other debt payments , this one has a fixed end date .
Most of the IVA is five years long , and if you have made regular payments throughout that time and have honored your agreement , you will be out of it as soon as that date arrives .
Get Rid of Debts for Good The moment you make the last payment of your IVA agreement , all of your debt will be written off .
This means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you do not have to worry about making any payments in the future .
However , if you have any mortgage , you will have to pay that as it falls under secured debts .
Another great part about IVA is that your interest rate will be fixed in the beginning .
Once the agreement is signed , the lender is not allowed to charge you any sort of interest on it .
This can help you plan your long term savings as well .
The above-mentioned benefits of IVA will not do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no value .
That is why IVA is a legally binding agreement .
This means you have to pay what was decided in the agreement , and the lender can not force you to spend even a cent more .
It also stops the lender from taking action on your property as well .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

Dealing in debt is never easy! If you have a small debt, you just have to make the small payments regularly to get out of it. But when you have a big debt, not only you have to manage a good amount of money that you do not already have, but you have to deal with the stress as well. When one is dealing with debt, they should never panic. It does not matter how hard the situation is there is always a way to get out of it. You can take the help of a family member or friends, or you can redesign your budget and start making monthly payments. One of the ways that can help you get out of the debt is Individual voluntary arrangement, aka IVA. It is a contract designed for people who are buried in debt to help them get out of it. IVA is basically a legal agreement between a lender and the person in debt, which allows the debt holder to pay off a chunk of the owed money over a decided period of time, which is usually five years. Let’s have a look at a few benefits IVA provides.
Affordable Payment
The biggest advantage of an IVA is that it allows you to make one affordable payment per month. The amount is decided after keeping your monthly income in mind, which ensures that no matter what happens, you will be able to make your payments right on time. You would not have to worry anymore, as now you know the fee is only a chunk of your monthly income, which is manageable. If you want to know about IVA in detail, you can click here to learn more.
It Has a Fixed End Date
Another benefit of IVA is that unlike other debt payments, this one has a fixed end date. Most of the IVA is five years long, and if you have made regular payments throughout that time and have honored your agreement, you will be out of it as soon as that date arrives.
Get Rid of Debts for Good
The moment you make the last payment of your IVA agreement, all of your debt will be written off. This means you get a clean slate, and you do not have to worry about making any payments in the future. However, if you have any mortgage, you will have to pay that as it falls under secured debts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Your Interest Rate Doesn’t Change
Another great part about IVA is that your interest rate will be fixed in the beginning. Once the agreement is signed, the lender is not allowed to charge you any sort of interest on it. This can help you plan your long term savings as well.
IVA is Legally Binding
The above-mentioned benefits of IVA will not do you any good if the agreement has no value. That is why IVA is a legally binding agreement. This means you have to pay what was decided in the agreement, and the lender cannot force you to spend even a cent more. It also stops the lender from taking action on your property as well.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--FOX Guest Drops HUGE Question Regarding CV and the 3 Candidates Running for President

Virginia Kruta from The Daily Caller reports , Fox News contributor Gillian Turner asked Chris Wallace what could happen if @ @ @ @ @ were to contract CV .
Turner joined Wallace ’ s discussion on “ Fox News @ @ @ @ @ of the virus and the administration ’ s response to its spread .

Virginia Kruta from The Daily Caller reports, Fox News contributor Gillian Turner asked Chris Wallace what could happen if all three major 2020 contenders were to contract CV. Turner joined Wallace’s discussion on “Fox News Sunday” about the spread of the virus and the administration’s response to its spread.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
dailycaller.com/2020/03/15/gi…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--The U.S. fiscal stimulus won’t do enough to help families and small businesses. The dire forecasts a

Before we get to the main points of this article , let ’ s review how you can keep track of the latest results on COVID-19 and restaurant sales .
As we previously mentioned , www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ tells you the latest results on the number of cases in each country and state as well as the number of deaths , the number of recoveries , and the number of critical cases .
The current debate is over whether China ’ s recovery is temporary .
China ’ s economy has been normalizing except in Hubei .
It would be amazing if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next couple months .
If we were sure this virus won ’ t hinder economic activity in the 2nd half of 2020 , stocks would be soaring .
That ’ s not the case as there are fears after a few weeks of re-opening the economy , it will come back .
The risk is there might be a need to open and close the economy until the vaccine is ready , which could take much longer than the next few months .
To learn more about the situation , read the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s by Imperial College .
www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf The 2nd website to review is covidtracking.com/data/ .
It tracks all the reported tests being done in each state .
South Korea has done the best at dealing with this virus by testing as many people as possible .
The testing rollout in America was a disaster , but it has since improved as states are starting to set up drive thru testing sites .
Testing isn ’ t at full capacity yet , but if you believe government officials , the situation will be in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so .
The final website is www.opentable.com/state-of-industry .
This isn ’ t about COVID-19 .
It instead shows the yearly decline in bookings at restaurants through OpenTable .
It ’ s a window into the impact COVID-19 and the shutdowns are having on businesses .
The reality is many restaurants will go bust in the coming weeks , laying off thousands of workers .
Politicians say no business should go bankrupt due to COVID-19 , but that ’ s just a talking point .
Firms are already feeling the pain .
On March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from last year .
The House passed a fiscal stimulus .
Now the Senate is looking at it .
The unfortunate reality is this won ’ t be enough money to help families deal with the crisis .
The package is too small .
It is $ 1 trillion .
There is $ 500 billion to $ 550 billion in direct payments or tax cuts .
The estimate is $ 250 billion will be direct payments .
That ’ s about $ 1,200 per adult in America ( $ 2,400 if only the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone loses their job , they won ’ t be able to get by on just $ 1,200 unless another stimulus comes very soon .
We ’ re sure that if this stimulus goes out in 2 weeks , many Americans will feel it is too late .
The rest of the package includes $ 200 billion to $ 300 billion given to small businesses which also isn ’ t enough money .
That ’ s about $ 10,400 per small business if the package is on the high end .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ firms which are getting destroyed .
While no interest loans are nice , it ’ s illogical to stay open if you ’ re going to incur new debt every day .
The final part is $ 50 billion to $ 100 billion in industry relief .
The airlines alone asked for $ 50 billion .
The hotels alone asked for $ 150 billion .
The cruise lines have also indicated needing money .
There is a huge political blowback against helping airlines because of the buybacks they did in the past few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting wiped out in these bailouts .
Prior to this acute shock to the labor market that perfectly defines what a black swan is , the labor market was doing well .
We had the longest streak of positive monthly job creation by far .
Unfortunately , the shock that will hit the labor market starting this spring will cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket .
As we mentioned earlier , restaurants are feeling the brunt of this virus because they are places where people come together .
As you can see from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7 % of the labor market and leisure and hospitality is about 11 % .
Restaurants do well in the new economy as they are resilient to the trend towards buying goods online .
COVID-19 is a major blow to the labor market .
We will see a spike in job cut announcements starting in either the March or April job cut report .
Jobless claims have shown no impact from COVID-19 yet , but that will change starting in the next 2 reports .
As you can see from the chart below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits ” have spiked .
We don ’ t just have to rely on searches though .
Connecticut reported there have been 30,000 claims since Friday which is more than the usual 3,000 to 3,500 .
That implies 1 % of the labor force lost their job in the past few days .
The results could actually be worse because Connecticut isn ’ t one of the hardest hit states by the virus .
It has just 68 cases compared to New York ’ s 1,708 and Washington ’ s 1,014 .
Ohio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Monday .
That ’ s compared to 562 last Sunday .
In one sense , its positive to see dire forecasts come out since it means the market is coming to grips with reality .
Be prepared for the worst , hope for the best .
Obviously , it ’ s terrible that this is happening in the first place .
Oxford Economics sees 1 million in job losses in America .
The rest of the world isn ’ t immune to this weakness .
As you can see from the chart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment rate reaching 7 % by October .
We gave you the best websites to do your own research on the COVID-19 crisis because we can ’ t provide up to the minute data in our articles .
The labor market is about to be hit very hard as leisure and hospitality firms will hemorrhage jobs .
The U.S. fiscal stimulus won ’ t do enough to help families and small businesses .
The dire forecasts aren ’ t just for America .
Australia will also see its unemployment rate spike .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by UPFINA
Before we get to the main points of this article, let’s review how you can keep track of the latest results on COVID-19 and restaurant sales. As we previously mentioned, www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ tells you the latest results on the number of cases in each country and state as well as the number of deaths, the number of recoveries, and the number of critical cases. The current debate is over whether China’s recovery is temporary. China’s economy has been normalizing except in Hubei. It would be amazing if America could follow in its footsteps in the next couple months.
If we were sure this virus won’t hinder economic activity in the 2nd half of 2020, stocks would be soaring. That’s not the case as there are fears after a few weeks of re-opening the economy, it will come back. The risk is there might be a need to open and close the economy until the vaccine is ready, which could take much longer than the next few months. To learn more about the situation, read the paper everyone is talking about. It’s by Imperial College. www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
The 2nd website to review is covidtracking.com/data/. It tracks all the reported tests being done in each state. South Korea has done the best at dealing with this virus by testing as many people as possible. The testing rollout in America was a disaster, but it has since improved as states are starting to set up drive thru testing sites. Testing isn’t at full capacity yet, but if you believe government officials, the situation will be in better shape over the next week or so.
The final website is www.opentable.com/state-of-industry. This isn’t about COVID-19. It instead shows the yearly decline in bookings at restaurants through OpenTable. It’s a window into the impact COVID-19 and the shutdowns are having on businesses. The reality is many restaurants will go bust in the coming weeks, laying off thousands of workers. Politicians say no business should go bankrupt due to COVID-19, but that’s just a talking point. Firms are already feeling the pain. On March 16th, bookings were down 56% from last year.
Coming Fiscal Stimulus
The House passed a fiscal stimulus. Now the Senate is looking at it. The unfortunate reality is this won’t be enough money to help families deal with the crisis. The package is too small. It is $1 trillion. There is $500 billion to $550 billion in direct payments or tax cuts. The estimate is $250 billion will be direct payments. That’s about $1,200 per adult in America ($2,400 if only the bottom half get it). If someone loses their job, they won’t be able to get by on just $1,200 unless another stimulus comes very soon. We’re sure that if this stimulus goes out in 2 weeks, many Americans will feel it is too late.
The rest of the package includes $200 billion to $300 billion given to small businesses which also isn’t enough money. That’s about $10,400 per small business if the package is on the high end. That’s not enough money for most small firms which are getting destroyed. While no interest loans are nice, it’s illogical to stay open if you’re going to incur new debt every day.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The final part is $50 billion to $100 billion in industry relief. The airlines alone asked for $50 billion. The hotels alone asked for $150 billion. The cruise lines have also indicated needing money. There is a huge political blowback against helping airlines because of the buybacks they did in the past few years. That could mean equity holders getting wiped out in these bailouts.
Labor Market To Be Hurt Brutally
Prior to this acute shock to the labor market that perfectly defines what a black swan is, the labor market was doing well. We had the longest streak of positive monthly job creation by far. Unfortunately, the shock that will hit the labor market starting this spring will cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket. As we mentioned earlier, restaurants are feeling the brunt of this virus because they are places where people come together. As you can see from the chart below, restaurants are over 7% of the labor market and leisure and hospitality is about 11%.
Restaurants do well in the new economy as they are resilient to the trend towards buying goods online. COVID-19 is a major blow to the labor market. We will see a spike in job cut announcements starting in either the March or April job cut report.
Jobless claims have shown no impact from COVID-19 yet, but that will change starting in the next 2 reports. As you can see from the chart below, the Google searches for “unemployment benefits” have spiked.
Collaboration with @RenMacLLC who pointed out the surge in trends…#MTFC, do not wait. pic.twitter.com/dvDr2MPfmb — George Pearkes (@pearkes) March 17, 2020
We don’t just have to rely on searches though. Connecticut reported there have been 30,000 claims since Friday which is more than the usual 3,000 to 3,500. That implies 1% of the labor force lost their job in the past few days. The results could actually be worse because Connecticut isn’t one of the hardest hit states by the virus. It has just 68 cases compared to New York’s 1,708 and Washington’s 1,014. Ohio had 12,000 claims on Sunday and 36,645 on Monday. That’s compared to 562 last Sunday.
Dire Forecasts For America & Australia
In one sense, its positive to see dire forecasts come out since it means the market is coming to grips with reality. Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best. Obviously, it’s terrible that this is happening in the first place. Oxford Economics sees 1 million in job losses in America. The rest of the world isn’t immune to this weakness. As you can see from the chart below, Westpac Economics sees the Australian unemployment rate reaching 7% by October.
🚨🚨 "The unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 7% by October
2020 due to the larger negative shocks to the labour intensive sectors such as recreation; tourism; education; renovations and additions; and dwelling construction," says @WestpacMacro #auspol #ausbiz pic.twitter.com/8DVF0icjH3 — David Scutt (@Scutty) March 17, 2020
Conclusion
We gave you the best websites to do your own research on the COVID-19 crisis because we can’t provide up to the minute data in our articles. The labor market is about to be hit very hard as leisure and hospitality firms will hemorrhage jobs. The U.S. fiscal stimulus won’t do enough to help families and small businesses. The dire forecasts aren’t just for America. Australia will also see its unemployment rate spike. This will be a global economic recession.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--Logan on the “mortgage meltdown”.   He says some lenders are concerned about EPO (early payoff risk)

Logan on the “mortgage meltdown”.   He says some lenders are concerned about EPO (early payoff risk).   Other brokers have told me they get “no bid” on MBS.   This is crazy.

Logan on the `` mortgage meltdown '' .
He says some lenders are concerned about EPO ( early payoff risk @ @ @ @ @ told me they get `` no bid '' on MBS .
This is crazy .
@

Logan on the "mortgage meltdown". He says some lenders are concerned about EPO (early payoff risk). Other brokers have told me they get "no bid" on MBS. This is crazy. t.co/4tntPzC9wW
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--if you thought S&P -5% was a bad day, look at some of the Credit ETFs and REIT ETFs, then Loan/CLO E

if you thought S&P -5% was a bad day, look at some of the Credit ETFs and REIT ETFs, then Loan/CLO ETFs…

if you thought S & P -5 % was a bad day , look at some of the Credit ETFs @ @ @ @ @ Loan/CLO ETFs and lastly Virus-related ( this one is not a surprise though ) -3x @ @ @ @ @ , this was a flush in Credit , maybe even some single name stocks pic.twitter.com/QmWnxFICop

if you thought S&P -5% was a bad day, look at some of the Credit ETFs and REIT ETFs, then Loan/CLO ETFs and lastly Virus-related (this one is not a surprise though) -3x levered stuff all getting liquidated, this was a flush in Credit, maybe even some single name stocks pic.twitter.com/QmWnxFICop
— Tian (@RealTianZeng) March 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--COVID19 – 2nd Wave Is Coming!

COVID19 – 2nd Wave Is Coming!

The infection curve has steepened substantially this week .
The number of confirmed cases has gone up by 70,000 this @ @ @ @ @

The infection curve has steepened substantially this week. The number of confirmed cases has gone up by 70,000 this week.#COVID19 t.co/dDztRtBMLa pic.twitter.com/KQSJb4XicI
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) March 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-19--You’re Grounded: The COVID-19 Effect on Global Flight Capacity

It ’ s not an exaggeration to say that the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into a tailspin .
As the number of new cases continues to surge in parts of the world , numbers are beginning to decline in others as public health officials and governments tirelessly work to slow the contagion and reach of the virus .
The potent combination of trip cancellations and country-specific restrictions on international flights has had a staggering impact on the $ 880 billion global airline industry .
Today ’ s visualization highlights data from the OAG Aviation Worldwide , which tracks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s numbers .
Nearly all countries have some type of travel advisory in place , with many encouraging people to avoid non-essential travel even before COVID-19 was officially considered a pandemic by the World Health Organization ( WHO ) .
The earliest impacts of these were felt in February , as flight capacity in and out of China dropped sharply around Lunar New Year .
Also , the country ’ s sharpest year-over-year drop was recorded on February 17 , 2020 , with a 71 % drop in flights compared to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capacity for Hong Kong , which was already seeing its traveler numbers declining due to months-long protests , continues its slump .
As of March 16 , 2020 , it was down by an immense 81 % compared to 2019 – the most of any jurisdiction represented in the data .
Meanwhile in Europe , Italy saw a 22 % drop in flights coinciding with the announcement of a national lockdown on March 9 , 2020 .
Now that the situation has intensified , flights to and from Italy have plummeted 74 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 , 2020 , the U.S. enforced a 30-day ban on travelers from the Schengen Area , a free-travel zone consisting of 26 countries in Europe .
Although the UK and Ireland were initially exempt , the ban has since been extended to include both countries as well .
Meanwhile , as of March 17th , the U.S.-Canada border is closed for all non-essential travel .
This follows a previous announcement from the Canadian government that it would be curbing entry to only Canadian citizens , family members , permanent residents , diplomats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries around the world are taking similar actions to limit the spread of the virus and “ flatten the curve ” : As both COVID-19 and the global response to it continues to evolve , here are the largest flight capacity reductions across a few more countries in the past week : Naturally , the economic impact on airlines has been immense .
Nearly 40 % of flights impacted by the European travel bans are U.S. based , such as Delta and United Airlines , with billions in lost revenue already estimated for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the threat of bankruptcy in coming months , if these declining trends continue .
To hedge against these domino effects of the outbreak , U.S. airlines are requesting upwards of $ 60 billion in bailouts and direct assistance from the government .
COVID-19 is throwing everything up in the air—including the fate of airline companies .
It ’ s not yet clear when these stringent travel restrictions may be lifted , but one can only hope that these airlines do not have to continue to weather the storm much longer .

by visualcapitalist
It’s not an exaggeration to say that the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into a tailspin.
As the number of new cases continues to surge in parts of the world, numbers are beginning to decline in others as public health officials and governments tirelessly work to slow the contagion and reach of the virus.
The potent combination of trip cancellations and country-specific restrictions on international flights has had a staggering impact on the $880 billion global airline industry. Today’s visualization highlights data from the OAG Aviation Worldwide, which tracks how global flight capacity differs from last year’s numbers.
Asia Faced the First Hard Landing
Nearly all countries have some type of travel advisory in place, with many encouraging people to avoid non-essential travel even before COVID-19 was officially considered a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The earliest impacts of these were felt in February, as flight capacity in and out of China dropped sharply around Lunar New Year. Also, the country’s sharpest year-over-year drop was recorded on February 17, 2020, with a 71% drop in flights compared to the same date in 2019.
Flight capacity for Hong Kong, which was already seeing its traveler numbers declining due to months-long protests, continues its slump. As of March 16, 2020, it was down by an immense 81% compared to 2019 – the most of any jurisdiction represented in the data.
Monitoring the Situation Elsewhere
Meanwhile in Europe, Italy saw a 22% drop in flights coinciding with the announcement of a national lockdown on March 9, 2020. Now that the situation has intensified, flights to and from Italy have plummeted 74% from their normal rates.
On March 11, 2020, the U.S. enforced a 30-day ban on travelers from the Schengen Area, a free-travel zone consisting of 26 countries in Europe. Although the UK and Ireland were initially exempt, the ban has since been extended to include both countries as well.
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Meanwhile, as of March 17th, the U.S.-Canada border is closed for all non-essential travel. This follows a previous announcement from the Canadian government that it would be curbing entry to only Canadian citizens, family members, permanent residents, diplomats, and Americans.
Broadly speaking, countries around the world are taking similar actions to limit the spread of the virus and “flatten the curve”:
Measure Taken Example Countries* Suspending flights from specific countries 🇺🇸United States, 🇹🇷Turkey Returning citizens must enter through specific airports 🇨🇦Canada, 🇺🇸United States Mandatory screening 🇮🇹Italy, 🇧🇴Bolivia 14 day self-quarantine 🇮🇱Israel, 🇬🇷Greece Complete closure of borders 🇬🇹Guatemala, 🇵🇪Peru
*As of March 17, 2020
More Turbulent Times Ahead?
As both COVID-19 and the global response to it continues to evolve, here are the largest flight capacity reductions across a few more countries in the past week:
Country 09 Mar 2020 Flights 16 Mar 2020 Flights % Change (16 Mar vs 9 Mar) 🇩🇪 Germany 2,426,098 1,984,441 -18.2% 🇨🇭 Switzerland 645,091 545,745 -15.4% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1,301,605 1,102,472 -15.3% 🇦🇪 UAE 1,363,573 1,154,960 -15.3% 🇫🇷 France 1,979,374 1,740,128 -12.1% 🇪🇸 Spain 2,498,114 2,214,571 -11.4% 🇰🇷 South Korea 795,752 710,558 -10.7% 🇹🇷 Turkey 1,775,305 1,630,475 -8.2% 🇹🇭 Thailand 1,514,844 1,402,191 -7.4% 🇵🇹 Portugal 578,093 536,127 -7.3%
Source: OAG
Naturally, the economic impact on airlines has been immense. Nearly 40% of flights impacted by the European travel bans are U.S. based, such as Delta and United Airlines, with billions in lost revenue already estimated for this year.
Many airlines worldwide face the threat of bankruptcy in coming months, if these declining trends continue. To hedge against these domino effects of the outbreak, U.S. airlines are requesting upwards of $60 billion in bailouts and direct assistance from the government.
COVID-19 is throwing everything up in the air—including the fate of airline companies. It’s not yet clear when these stringent travel restrictions may be lifted, but one can only hope that these airlines do not have to continue to weather the storm much longer.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--It’s probably a timely reminder that when things get real, there’s really only one true haven: the U

It’s probably a timely reminder that when things get real, there’s really only one true haven: the U.S. dollar.

Proper nowhere-to-hide session .
Everything got flattened : stocks , bonds , commodities ( including gold ) currencies ( including @ @ @ @ @ 's probably a timely reminder that when things get real , there 's really only @ @ @ @ @ U.S. dollar.t.co/ReBQxwxHma pic.twitter.com/MU5uxEtBVz

Proper nowhere-to-hide session. Everything got flattened: stocks, bonds, commodities (including gold) currencies (including the yen).
It's probably a timely reminder that when things get real, there's really only one true haven: the U.S. dollar.t.co/ReBQxwxHma pic.twitter.com/MU5uxEtBVz
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) March 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--The New Hotness? Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be

The New Hotness? Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be Use For Coronavirus Patients.

BALTIMORE ( WJZ ) — Baltimore Mayor Jack Young urged residents to put down their guns and heed orders to @ @ @ @ @ were shot Tuesday night amidst the coronavirus pandemic .
Young said hospital beds are needed @ @ @ @ @ and not for senseless violence .
Seven people were shot Tuesday night in the Madison @ @ @ @ @ reported its fifth positive coronavirus case Wednesday .
“ I want to reiterate how completely @ @ @ @ @ is that we have seen recently , ” Young said .
“ We will not @ @ @ @ @ an increase in crime .
”

BALTIMORE (WJZ) — Baltimore Mayor Jack Young urged residents to put down their guns and heed orders to stay home after multiple people were shot Tuesday night amidst the coronavirus pandemic.
Young said hospital beds are needed to treat positive COVID-19 patients and not for senseless violence. Seven people were shot Tuesday night in the Madison Park neighborhood, as Baltimore reported its fifth positive coronavirus case Wednesday.
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“I want to reiterate how completely unacceptable the level of violence is that we have seen recently,” Young said. “We will not stand for mass shootings and an increase in crime.”
baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/18/we-need-those-beds-baltimore-mayor-urges-people-to-put-down-guns-after-violence-continues-during-covid-19-pandemic/


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--6 members of a New Jersey family catch the Wuflu – ALL in critical condition

So far one of them has died .
Five members of a New Jersey family are in critical condition after their 55-year-old relative died last week of coronavirus , NJ.com reports .
Six family members of Rita Fusco-Jackson have contracted COVID-19 and are currently hospitalized , with five of them in a New Jersey hospital and one of them in a Pennsylvania hospital .
Fusco-Jackson ’ s mother and four siblings are reportedly at the New Jersey hospital , with four of them in critical condition .
Fusco-Jackson ’ s brother is also in critical condition at the Pennsylvania hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 10 siblings , said the situation was “ devastating ” for the family .
“ Our hearts are broken over losing our sister , Rita .
We just need help in saving our family members with life-saving medication , ” she said , adding that the family was waiting on 19 tests of spouses and children of those hospitalized .
The township health department is reportedly coordinating with the state on the “ cluster of cases , ” but a Freehold health officer said they were not seeing a community spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has not spoken publicly on the matter .

So far one of them has died.
www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/its-inconceivable-5-family-members-in-critical-condition-from-covid-19-after-relative-dies.html
Five members of a New Jersey family are in critical condition after their 55-year-old relative died last week of coronavirus, NJ.com reports. Six family members of Rita Fusco-Jackson have contracted COVID-19 and are currently hospitalized, with five of them in a New Jersey hospital and one of them in a Pennsylvania hospital. Fusco-Jackson’s mother and four siblings are reportedly at the New Jersey hospital, with four of them in critical condition. Fusco-Jackson’s brother is also in critical condition at the Pennsylvania hospital. Elizabeth Fusco, one of Fusco-Jackson’s 10 siblings, said the situation was “devastating” for the family. “Our hearts are broken over losing our sister, Rita. We just need help in saving our family members with life-saving medication,” she said, adding that the family was waiting on 19 tests of spouses and children of those hospitalized.
The township health department is reportedly coordinating with the state on the “cluster of cases,” but a Freehold health officer said they were not seeing a community spread. The New Jersey Department of Health has not spoken publicly on the matter.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--Denmark rushes through EMERGENCY CORONAVIRUS LAW! FORCED VACCINES!

This just passed in Denmark… From the article : “ As well as enforcing quarantine measures , the law also @ @ @ @ @ people to be vaccinated , even though there is currently no vaccination for the virus @ @ @ @ @ to prohibit access to public institutions , supermarkets and shops , public and private nursing @ @ @ @ @ also to impose restrictions on access to public transport.
” Here we go , folks @ @ @ @ @ of “ can ’ t buy or sell ” without this forced vaccine ?
Don @ @ @ @ @ or “ MARK ” inside your bodies !
It will change your DNA from Redeemable @ @ @ @ @ Jesus Christ ) human to Unredeemable hybrid !
Please heed this warning !
Disclaimer : @ @ @ @ @ and it doesn ’ t represent the views of IWB .

This just passed in Denmark…
www.thelocal.dk/20200313/denmark-passes-far-reaching-emergency-coronavirus-law
From the article: “As well as enforcing quarantine measures, the law also allows the authorities to force people to be vaccinated, even though there is currently no vaccination for the virus.
It also empowers them to prohibit access to public institutions, supermarkets and shops, public and private nursing homes and hospitals, and also to impose restrictions on access to public transport.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Here we go, folks! Is this the start of “can’t buy or sell” without this forced vaccine?
Don’t take any chip or “MARK” inside your bodies! It will change your DNA from Redeemable (by the Blood of Jesus Christ) human to Unredeemable hybrid! Please heed this warning!
h/t Watch
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--TRUMP CLOSES border WITH CANADA!

TRUMP CLOSES border WITH CANADA!

We will be , by mutual consent , temporarily closing our Northern Border with Canada to non-essential traffic .
Trade @ @ @ @ @ Details to follow !

We will be, by mutual consent, temporarily closing our Northern Border with Canada to non-essential traffic. Trade will not be affected. Details to follow!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--We are screwed here in Vegas

We are screwed here in Vegas

EVERY single casino and machines in even small ones are ordered to be turned off , major properties shut down @ @ @ @ @ much to you guys , nor me personally , i doubt gamble anyway but its @ @ @ @ @ economy…gambling/casinos is life blood here , what keeps things going .

EVERY single casino and machines in even small ones are ordered to be turned off, major properties shut down
i know it doesnt mean much to you guys, nor me personally, i doubt gamble anyway
but its going to crash the local economy…gambling/casinos is life blood here, what keeps things going.
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the GOV sounded scared in presser
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--NO CORONAVIRUS SCREENING: Pakistani arrivals to Canada surprised no one took their temperature

Today was supposed to be Day One of new # coronavirus screening measures for those flying into Canada .
That @ @ @ @ @ # JustinTrudeau told us on Monday , right ?
And he wouldn ’ t be @ @ @ @ @ would he ?

Today was supposed to be Day One of new #coronavirus screening measures for those flying into Canada. That’s what Prime Minister #JustinTrudeau told us on Monday, right? And he wouldn’t be reckless with the truth, would he?
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-18--COVID-19 ITALY: Inside intensive care unit!

Italian hospitals are at their absolute limit , with hundreds more deaths reported daily , and huge challenges in caring @ @ @ @

Italian hospitals are at their absolute limit, with hundreds more deaths reported daily, and huge challenges in caring for those infected.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC