investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--UN Warns Economic Downturn Could Kill Hundreds of Thousands of Children in 2020

Let ’ s be clear…the pandemic didn ’ t cause the economy to crash .
The tyrannical and draconian commands from governments and people willing to obey those commands crashed the economy .
Even the most authoritarian of all regimes , the U.N. , is warning about the upcoming death toll due to the economic destruction by governments .
The United Nations is saying hundreds of thousands of children are likely to die in the upcoming year because of the economic depression caused by the lockdowns .
Let ’ s be clear : the pandemic didn ’ t cause the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ draconian commands from governments and people willing to obey those commands crashed the economy .
On Thursday , the United Nations warned that in addition to the deaths of children , tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the economic crisis .
That ’ s far more severe than the virus has proven to be .
The world body also said in a risk report that nearly 369 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They Don ’ t Want You To Know The Truth !
It ’ s Time To End The Tyrannical Lockdown Ourselves “ We must act now on each of these threats to our children , ” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said .
“ Leaders must do everything in their power to cushion the impact of the pandemic .
What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind.
” Unfortunately , “ leaders ” have failed .
“ Leaders ” have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” can not fix anything .
It ’ s up to the rest of us .
According to a report by Reuters , the U.N. report warned that “ economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020 , reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year.
” We can do something about this .
Governments have no desire to have a booming economy or see people capable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can we do ?
Disobey .
Open your business , go about your life , and live as you own yourself because you do .
Governments won ’ t end the shutdown and intend to drag out the misery for as long as possible to prove they have the power to do so .
We have to end the tyranny now and we have to do it ourselves .
Even evidence from tyrants is showing that the shutdown has done more harm than the virus .
It is time to wake up to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back .
We all need to let all people in government know that we know they want to use fear to control us , and we won ’ t be accepting that any longer by disobeying their tyrannical commands .
This article cites some dire warnings from the UN that the absurd reaction to a fairytale virus pandemic is going to cause far more death and destruction than an alleged disease that is proving no more deadly that the seasonal flu .
It ’ s almost as if this entire spectacle was planned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shoved down our throats for years ( decades ) has been predicative programming for THIS EXACT EVENT .

by axolotl_peyotl
Let’s be clear…the pandemic didn’t cause the economy to crash. The tyrannical and draconian commands from governments and people willing to obey those commands crashed the economy.
source
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Even the most authoritarian of all regimes, the U.N., is warning about the upcoming death toll due to the economic destruction by governments. The United Nations is saying hundreds of thousands of children are likely to die in the upcoming year because of the economic depression caused by the lockdowns. Let’s be clear: the pandemic didn’t cause the economy to crash. The tyrannical and draconian commands from governments and people willing to obey those commands crashed the economy. On Thursday, the United Nations warned that in addition to the deaths of children, tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the economic crisis. That’s far more severe than the virus has proven to be. The world body also said in a risk report that nearly 369 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition have now been forced to look elsewhere.
They Don’t Want You To Know The Truth! It’s Time To End The Tyrannical Lockdown Ourselves
“We must act now on each of these threats to our children,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Leaders must do everything in their power to cushion the impact of the pandemic. What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind.” Unfortunately, “leaders” have failed. “Leaders” have caused the economic depression and “leaders” cannot fix anything. It’s up to the rest of us. According to a report by Reuters, the U.N. report warned that “economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020, reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year.” We can do something about this. Governments have no desire to have a booming economy or see people capable of taking care of themselves. What can we do? Disobey. Open your business, go about your life, and live as you own yourself because you do. Governments won’t end the shutdown and intend to drag out the misery for as long as possible to prove they have the power to do so. We have to end the tyranny now and we have to do it ourselves. Even evidence from tyrants is showing that the shutdown has done more harm than the virus. It is time to wake up to what’s being done and push back. We all need to let all people in government know that we know they want to use fear to control us, and we won’t be accepting that any longer by disobeying their tyrannical commands.
This article cites some dire warnings from the UN that the absurd reaction to a fairytale virus pandemic is going to cause far more death and destruction than an alleged disease that is proving no more deadly that the seasonal flu.
It’s almost as if this entire spectacle was planned, and the pro-vax/anti-conspiracy theory propaganda being shoved down our throats for years (decades) has been predicative programming for THIS EXACT EVENT.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--China ups its spy game on US soil as it bids to control coronavirus narrative

For decades , China has waged an espionage war with the United States , exploiting America ’ s comparatively open society and free-market economy to steal critical information , trade secrets and technology tools .
But as the coronavirus , officially termed COVID-19 , continues to assault the globe – Beijing is upping its spy game on U.S. soil with a focus on manipulating the narrative , officials and experts say .
The primary focus now , according to several current and former intelligence officials interviewed by Fox News , is attempting to control the disease narrative inside the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beijing .
One U.S. defense official , who spoke on the condition of anonymity , underscored that the Chinese focus inside the U.S. remains centered on technology theft , military readiness and minimizing the blowback .
“ Most assuredly , the American people will demand some kind of financial response , if not outright reparations in the many billions , ” the source explained .
“ And the Chinese can not afford that , but they know Trump will cut into it , too.
” A retired Pentagon officer underscored that its media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” a slight shift from its typical focus on IP and technology theft .
“ It is about saving face for them , ” said the source .
“ It ’ s about leaking out false information , even to our [ the U.S. intelligence ] apparatus .
”

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
For decades, China has waged an espionage war with the United States, exploiting America’s comparatively open society and free-market economy to steal critical information, trade secrets and technology tools.
But as the coronavirus, officially termed COVID-19, continues to assault the globe – Beijing is upping its spy game on U.S. soil with a focus on manipulating the narrative, officials and experts say.
The primary focus now, according to several current and former intelligence officials interviewed by Fox News, is attempting to control the disease narrative inside the U.S. and cast the blame game anywhere but Beijing.
One U.S. defense official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, underscored that the Chinese focus inside the U.S. remains centered on technology theft, military readiness and minimizing the blowback.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“Most assuredly, the American people will demand some kind of financial response, if not outright reparations in the many billions,” the source explained. “And the Chinese cannot afford that, but they know Trump will cut into it, too.”
A retired Pentagon officer underscored that its media operations are in “full swing,” a slight shift from its typical focus on IP and technology theft.
“It is about saving face for them,” said the source. “It’s about leaking out false information, even to our [the U.S. intelligence] apparatus.”
www.foxnews.com/us/china-spying-us-soil-coronavirus-narrative


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Coronapocalypse Is Deeper Than The Great Recession…Will Gold Shine Even More?

The recent economic reports show that the current coronavirus crisis will be bigger than the Great Recession .
What does it imply for the gold market ?
This week was full of new reports about the US economy .
And guess what , I don ’ t have good news… First of all , let ’ s start with the update about the weekly initial unemployment benefits .
In normal times , the initial claims are not too keenly watched by investors .
But in times of a pandemic , they are very informative .
The spike in the initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this crisis .
Anyway , the number of new claims for the unemployment benefits declined from 6.6 million in the previous week to 5.2 million in the week from April 4 to April 11 , as the chart below shows .
That ’ s good that the number is not accelerating , but , hey , more than 5 million of Americans applied for unemployment benefit in just one week , about 25 times more than before the epidemic !
And do you know what is even crazier ?
The monthly figure .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 22 million people went unemployed .
Now , I have two questions for you .
First , how many Americans were in unemployment in February , before the outbreak of epidemic ?
I ’ ll tell you : 5.8 million .
So , in just one month we almost quadrupled this number .
Second , do you know what is the implied unemployment rate ?
Well , when we add 22 to 5.8 million , and subtract the exact number from the pool of employed number , we will get 20.3 percent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ So it is already higher than during the Great Recession and almost as high as during the Great Depression !
Of course , our estimates may overestimate the unemployment rate as some people rather dropped out from the labor force , but still , the situation in the US labor market has become unbelievably grim in a unprecedentedly short a time .
Second , retail sales plunged a record 8.7 percent in March compared to the previous month , as one can see in the chart below .
The decline was more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global financial crisis .
Importantly , given that the lockdown began only in mid-March and initially sparked a panic buying of necessities , April will be much worse .
Chart 2 : US retail sales ( % monthly change ) from February 1992 to March 2020 .
Third , the industrial production plunged 5.4 percent in March , as pandemic led many factories to suspend operations late in the month .
As the chart below shows , it was a bigger decline than during the Great Recession .
Actually , it was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 4.3 percentage points to 72.7 percent in March , the lowest level since the Great Recession .
Again , the worse is yet to come in April .
Fourth , the recent readings of the regional manufacturing indices for April also reveal the deep economic crisis .
For example , the New York Federal Reserve ’ s Empire State business conditions index plunged from -21.5 to the -78.2 in April , the lowest number on record .
Meanwhile , the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April , the lowest reading since July 1980 .
Moreover , the National Association of Home Builders ’ monthly confidence index fell from 72 in March to 30 in April , the largest monthly change in the 30-year history of the index .
So , it seems that the pandemic is also affecting construction and the real estate market .
Last but not least , the newest Beige Book indicates that economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic .
Importantly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worsen in the next several months .
What does it all imply for gold from the fundamental point of view ?
Well , let ’ s face it .
This economic crisis is very deep , much deeper than Great Recession .
So , if gold rallied to $ 1,900 in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers ’ bankruptcy , why shouldn ’ t it rally also now , when the economic calamity is much greater ?
After all , the real interest rates are lower , while the public debt is higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason could be that this crisis , although deep , will turn out to be short-lived .
It is , of course , possible , if some genius develops an accepted amazing treatment .
I wish the pandemic ended quickly .
I wish it could be just a one-and-done crash like in 1987 .
However , I ’ m afraid that we will not see a V-shaped recession , nor even a U-shaped depression , but rather a shift into the socially-distanced economy that operates at half capacity for some period of time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the higher chances that other “ black swans ” will land .
Many things may happen : some banks or big companies may go bankrupt , or Italy can default on its bonds , etc .
You see , the current financial system based on the fractional reserve banking , fiat money , moral hazard , high debt , low interest rates , is very fragile , so I bet that the risk aversion will remain high .
Anyway , the interest rates should remain at ultra low levels .
So , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see higher prices of safe-haven assets such as gold later this year .
If you enjoyed today ’ s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services .
We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals .
In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope , we invite you to subscribe today .
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Sign up today !

by Arkadiusz Sieron of Sunshine Profits
The recent economic reports show that the current coronavirus crisis will be bigger than the Great Recession. What does it imply for the gold market?
US Economic Data Paints a Gloomy Picture
This week was full of new reports about the US economy. And guess what, I don’t have good news… First of all, let’s start with the update about the weekly initial unemployment benefits. In normal times, the initial claims are not too keenly watched by investors. But in times of a pandemic, they are very informative. The spike in the initial claims may even become the symbol of this crisis. Anyway, the number of new claims for the unemployment benefits declined from 6.6 million in the previous week to 5.2 million in the week from April 4 to April 11, as the chart below shows.
Chart 1: Initial jobless claims from April 2019 to April 2020.
That’s good that the number is not accelerating, but, hey, more than 5 million of Americans applied for unemployment benefit in just one week, about 25 times more than before the epidemic! And do you know what is even crazier? The monthly figure. In just the past four weeks, 22 million people went unemployed.
Now, I have two questions for you. First, how many Americans were in unemployment in February, before the outbreak of epidemic? I’ll tell you: 5.8 million. So, in just one month we almost quadrupled this number. Second, do you know what is the implied unemployment rate? Well, when we add 22 to 5.8 million, and subtract the exact number from the pool of employed number, we will get 20.3 percent. Yup, more than 20 percent. So it is already higher than during the Great Recession and almost as high as during the Great Depression! Of course, our estimates may overestimate the unemployment rate as some people rather dropped out from the labor force, but still, the situation in the US labor market has become unbelievably grim in a unprecedentedly short a time.
Second, retail sales plunged a record 8.7 percent in March compared to the previous month, as one can see in the chart below. The decline was more than double the biggest one-month drop during the global financial crisis. Importantly, given that the lockdown began only in mid-March and initially sparked a panic buying of necessities, April will be much worse.
Chart 2: US retail sales (% monthly change) from February 1992 to March 2020.
Third, the industrial production plunged 5.4 percent in March, as pandemic led many factories to suspend operations late in the month. As the chart below shows, it was a bigger decline than during the Great Recession. Actually, it was the biggest drop since early 1946. Moreover, capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 4.3 percentage points to 72.7 percent in March, the lowest level since the Great Recession. Again, the worse is yet to come in April.
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Chart 3: Industrial production index (monthly % change) from November 2007 to March 2020.
Fourth, the recent readings of the regional manufacturing indices for April also reveal the deep economic crisis. For example, the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business conditions index plunged from -21.5 to the -78.2 in April, the lowest number on record. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped from -12.5 in March to -56.6 in April, the lowest reading since July 1980.
Moreover, the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index fell from 72 in March to 30 in April, the largest monthly change in the 30-year history of the index. So, it seems that the pandemic is also affecting construction and the real estate market.
Last but not least, the newest Beige Book indicates that economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, most business contacts expect conditions to worsen in the next several months.
Implications for Gold
What does it all imply for gold from the fundamental point of view? Well, let’s face it. This economic crisis is very deep, much deeper than Great Recession. So, if gold rallied to $1,900 in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, why shouldn’t it rally also now, when the economic calamity is much greater? After all, the real interest rates are lower, while the public debt is higher than a decade ago.
The only reason could be that this crisis, although deep, will turn out to be short-lived. It is, of course, possible, if some genius develops an accepted amazing treatment. I wish the pandemic ended quickly. I wish it could be just a one-and-done crash like in 1987. However, I’m afraid that we will not see a V-shaped recession, nor even a U-shaped depression, but rather a shift into the socially-distanced economy that operates at half capacity for some period of time. And the longer the crisis lasts, the higher chances that other “black swans” will land. Many things may happen: some banks or big companies may go bankrupt, or Italy can default on its bonds, etc. You see, the current financial system based on the fractional reserve banking, fiat money, moral hazard, high debt, low interest rates, is very fragile, so I bet that the risk aversion will remain high. Anyway, the interest rates should remain at ultra low levels. So, there are decent chances that we will see higher prices of safe-haven assets such as gold later this year.
If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!
Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--‘Stay Home…Stay Safe’: Egypt lights up Great Pyramid of Giza with message of solidarity

Egypt ’ s Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities lit up the front of the Great Pyramid of Giza on Monday @ @ @ @ @ solidarity and appreciation for healthcare workers around the world amid the ongoing coronavirus ( COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ , displayed in both English and Arabic , read “ Stay Home…Stay Safe , Thank @ @ @ @ @ Safe.
” ( pictures ) Coronavirus : Egypt lights up the Great Pyramids with ‘ @ @ @ @

Egypt’s Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities lit up the front of the Great Pyramid of Giza on Monday, conveying a message of solidarity and appreciation for healthcare workers around the world amid the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The message, displayed in both English and Arabic, read “Stay Home…Stay Safe, Thank You to Those Keeping Us Safe.”
(pictures)
egyptindependent.com/stay-home-stay-safe-egypt-lights-up-great-pyramid-of-giza-with-message-of-solidarity/
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Coronavirus: Egypt lights up the Great Pyramids with ‘Stay Home’ message
Egypt’s pyramids send a message to the world
h/t Concorde


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Chris Martenson: Don’t Believe The Hype! New Optimistic Coronavirus Research Seriously Flawed

Have you read the recent studies claiming that many more people have or have recovered from the coronavirus than are @ @ @ @ @ we .
It ’ s great news , right ?
It suggests that the fatality @ @ @ @ @ currently calculated and we ’ re making progress towards national herd immunity , right ?
@ @ @ @ @ research studies behind the headlines and show how shaky both its methodology and conclusions are @ @ @ @ @ bad that other scientists within the research community are calling for an apology .
As @ @ @ @ @ hype were true , now is a critical time to ensure we ’ re dealing @ @ @ @ @ data = bad decisions .
Bad decisions = bad outcomes .
Meanwhile , Chris also @ @ @ @ @ on in the oil markets , with near-term oil contracts now trading at negative prices @ @ @ @ @ will have MASSIVE implications for the economy and the financial markets going forward .
You @ @ @ @ @ from us on that soon .
So stay tuned .

by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity
Have you read the recent studies claiming that many more people have or have recovered from the coronavirus than are counted officially?
So have we.
It’s great news, right? It suggests that the fatality rate is MUCH lower than currently calculated and we’re making progress towards national herd immunity, right?
Not so fast, warns Chris.
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He pulls up the actual research studies behind the headlines and show how shaky both its methodology and conclusions are. They’re so bad that other scientists within the research community are calling for an apology.
As much as we wish the hype were true, now is a critical time to ensure we’re dealing with accurate data. Bad data = bad decisions. Bad decisions = bad outcomes.
Meanwhile, Chris also notes the absolute carnage going on in the oil markets, with near-term oil contracts now trading at negative prices. This is historic and will have MASSIVE implications for the economy and the financial markets going forward.
You’ll be hearing more from us on that soon. So stay tuned.
FULL SHOW NOTES AND LINKS HERE


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--This is a market of 5 stocks. The broader market is much weaker than it appears. The Bloomberg conse

This is a market of 5 stocks. The broader market is much weaker than it appears. The Bloomberg consensus for the S&P 500 earnings growth in 2020 suggests the market is extremely expensive

The Bloomberg consensus for the S & P 500 earnings growth in 2020 suggests the market is extremely expensive So the market is expecting a 20-30 % contraction in EPS for 2020 for the companies of the S & P 500 .
At the current index price , that gives a P/E ratio in the 23-25x range , similar to the dot-com bubble era .
Let ’ s make a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation .
I don ’ t have exact data under my eyes but it doesn ’ t matter , we can take estimation based on a quick google @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 130 EPS estimate 2021 : $ 160 If we take a P/E of 17x , which is higher than the long-term average .
That ’ s a SPX value of 2200 this year and 2720 next , both lower than today ’ s value .
And we are in the middle of a shutdown of the global economy .
I agree the calculation is simplistic , but from a risk-adjusted point of view , it is just difficult to justify the current pricing .
Given we are in one of the worst global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ century , do you think it is sustainable ?

This chart above of course confirms why equal weight never got anywhere near the October 2019 lows as $SPX just did last week. This is a market of 5 stocks. The broader market is much weaker than it appears. pic.twitter.com/JgNbZI3ESm — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) April 21, 2020
European banks never bounced, now revisit March lows. Trouble is- difficulty to raise capital at these levels compounded by exposure to energy sector, notably for Natixis, plus billions out to S'pore oil trader fraud posted ystdy. Only one domino cannot fall. So what next? pic.twitter.com/ID2RCDpsR0 — Rich Kleinbauer (@RMKOutFront) April 21, 2020
#SouthKorea's #exports dropped almost 27% year-on-year, and suggest global #earnings per share could fall as much as 60%! pic.twitter.com/eo1AWFRBrD — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 21, 2020
Meanwhile in the treasury market! pic.twitter.com/IeEIPQE2Qw — Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) April 21, 2020
US Regional Fed surveys currently suggest a 20pt decline in the ISM YoY by May. This implies a target of around 32. Meanwhile, US equities are pricing an ISM of 50. The last time the ISM fell to low 30s was in Dec ‘08 (34.5) w/ the S&P 500 down -50% YoY vs. -3% YoY today. pic.twitter.com/0r40HTRZLe — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) April 21, 2020
The Bloomberg consensus for the S&P 500 earnings growth in 2020 suggests the market is extremely expensive
So the market is expecting a 20-30% contraction in EPS for 2020 for the companies of the S&P 500. At the current index price, that gives a P/E ratio in the 23-25x range, similar to the dot-com bubble era.
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Let’s make a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. I don’t have exact data under my eyes but it doesn’t matter, we can take estimation based on a quick google search: EPS estimate 2020: $130 EPS estimate 2021: $160 If we take a P/E of 17x, which is higher than the long-term average. That’s a SPX value of 2200 this year and 2720 next, both lower than today’s value. And we are in the middle of a shutdown of the global economy. I agree the calculation is simplistic, but from a risk-adjusted point of view, it is just difficult to justify the current pricing.
Given we are in one of the worst global economic slowdown we experienced in the past century, do you think it is sustainable?
This of course has been the story since the 2018 highs, ever weaker participation of the broader market.
It was ignored and ignored and ignored until it all fell apart.
And now it's again being ignored, but the dislocation has grown to even more epic proportions. pic.twitter.com/UXcCOHNK20 — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) April 21, 2020
Oil price turmoil reveals depths of economic pain t.co/ixUPDcDk3y — Financial Times (@FT) April 21, 2020
International Monetary Fund in report says nearly $8 trillion in spending, loans and guarantees could pose threat after pandemic eases t.co/bTBDoXVT0q — WSJ Central Banks (@WSJCentralBanks) April 21, 2020
It's a lot like "Wheel of Fortune" pic.twitter.com/KY98kJb9F1 — Rudy Havenstein, waiting for my check. (@RudyHavenstein) April 21, 2020
It's a lot like "Wheel of Fortune" pic.twitter.com/KY98kJb9F1 — Rudy Havenstein, waiting for my check. (@RudyHavenstein) April 21, 2020
It's a lot like "Wheel of Fortune" pic.twitter.com/KY98kJb9F1 — Rudy Havenstein, waiting for my check. (@RudyHavenstein) April 21, 2020
It's a lot like "Wheel of Fortune" pic.twitter.com/KY98kJb9F1 — Rudy Havenstein, waiting for my check. (@RudyHavenstein) April 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--USO ETF about to bankrupt itself. Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil get

USO ETF about to bankrupt itself. Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil get a rude awakening

The $ uso etf created fake demand for oil by placing a claim on purchase of future production that never took delivery of said oil because it rolls that claim to the next month .
Markets are rot with these etf shell games all over the place .
Typical end cycle event $ uso liquidation USO news : All this means is that only USCF has the ability to create new shares of its fund .
Authorized participants can no long create them .
pic.twitter.com/kFwR8AMqKW Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil get a rude awakening from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flooded into the oil markets to bet on a rebound in crude prices are risking big losses , say commodity specialists , as the exchange traded funds they use are swept up in the current market turmoil .
The United States Oil fund , the largest oil ETF known as USO , saw inflows of about $ 1.5bn last week , as US crude prices hit their lowest levels since the early 2000s on plunging demand .
Professional traders said retail investors , in particular , were trying to pick the turning point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will recover quickly once coronavirus-fighting measures are eased .
But prices had further to fall .
On Monday , West Texas Intermediate , the US benchmark , crashed below zero for the first time in history , dropping as low as minus $ 40 as traders dumped the contract for delivery in May .
The June contract , where most of USO ’ s investments currently sit , lost 15 per cent to about $ 21 a barrel .
Investors are not just at risk of placing a wrong-way bet , traders say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like equities .
Instead , they expire monthly so the underlying crude can be delivered to buyers — something specialists fear could be poorly understood by greenhorn investors .
“ Investment in ETFs currently harbours high risks to investors who might be tempted to passively invest in oil due to ultra-low prices , ” said Michel Salden , head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management .
Losses can occur when tracker funds have to “ roll ” their exposure when contracts expire , Mr Salden said .
If the oil market structure shifts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term for when spot prices are trading below contracts for future delivery — then an ETF might have to sell its contracts at the lower price , then buy the next month ’ s contract at a higher price just to maintain its holdings .
Ole Hansen , Saxo Bank ’ s head of commodity strategy , said that the largest long-only oil ETFs had seen their net holdings rise by 400 per cent in the past month .
These ETFs , he warned , “ are predominantly positioned at the front of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rolling losses every month until the market fundamentals eventually stabilise ” .
That process “ could take several months , ” he added .
USO was the fourth most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday morning , with more than half a billion dollars changing hands before lunchtime in New York , as the WTI spot price plummeted .
Investors ’ move into USO is reminiscent of 2009 , when many investors bought the ETF as crude prices slipped to near $ 30 a barrel , before almost tripling over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy emerged from the depths of the financial crisis .
Investors found their ETF returns did not match the oil-price gains , as they had lost a large chunk of their investment each month through the process of rolling contracts .
The USO fund , launched in 2006 , typically absorbs cash from investors when crude prices hit bottom .
Inflows previously peaked in early 2009 and in early 2016 , just after oil-price crashes .
Since March , the number of shares outstanding in the fund has doubled as new cash comes @ @

The $uso etf created fake demand for oil by placing a claim on purchase of future production that never took delivery of said oil because it rolls that claim to the next month. Markets are rot with these etf shell games all over the place. Typical end cycle event $uso liquidation
USO news: All this means is that only USCF has the ability to create new shares of its fund. Authorized participants can no long create them. pic.twitter.com/kFwR8AMqKW
Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil get a rude awakening
from the financial times:
Investors who have flooded into the oil markets to bet on a rebound in crude prices are risking big losses, say commodity specialists, as the exchange traded funds they use are swept up in the current market turmoil. The United States Oil fund, the largest oil ETF known as USO, saw inflows of about $1.5bn last week, as US crude prices hit their lowest levels since the early 2000s on plunging demand.
Professional traders said retail investors, in particular, were trying to pick the turning point for oil, betting that the market will recover quickly once coronavirus-fighting measures are eased. But prices had further to fall. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, crashed below zero for the first time in history, dropping as low as minus $40 as traders dumped the contract for delivery in May. The June contract, where most of USO’s investments currently sit, lost 15 per cent to about $21 a barrel.
Investors are not just at risk of placing a wrong-way bet, traders say, as oil contracts do not trade like equities. Instead, they expire monthly so the underlying crude can be delivered to buyers — something specialists fear could be poorly understood by greenhorn investors. “Investment in ETFs currently harbours high risks to investors who might be tempted to passively invest in oil due to ultra-low prices,” said Michel Salden, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management. Losses can occur when tracker funds have to “roll” their exposure when contracts expire, Mr Salden said.
If the oil market structure shifts into “contango” — an industry term for when spot prices are trading below contracts for future delivery — then an ETF might have to sell its contracts at the lower price, then buy the next month’s contract at a higher price just to maintain its holdings. Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, said that the largest long-only oil ETFs had seen their net holdings rise by 400 per cent in the past month.
These ETFs, he warned, “are predominantly positioned at the front of the futures curve and will be exposed to rolling losses every month until the market fundamentals eventually stabilise”. That process “could take several months,” he added. USO was the fourth most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday morning, with more than half a billion dollars changing hands before lunchtime in New York, as the WTI spot price plummeted.
Investors’ move into USO is reminiscent of 2009, when many investors bought the ETF as crude prices slipped to near $30 a barrel, before almost tripling over the next 12 months as the world economy emerged from the depths of the financial crisis. Investors found their ETF returns did not match the oil-price gains, as they had lost a large chunk of their investment each month through the process of rolling contracts. The USO fund, launched in 2006, typically absorbs cash from investors when crude prices hit bottom. Inflows previously peaked in early 2009 and in early 2016, just after oil-price crashes. Since March, the number of shares outstanding in the fund has doubled as new cash comes in.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--“The class action lawsuit group in the US has already begun to sue anybody and everybody. They’re al

“The class action lawsuit group in the US has already begun to sue anybody and everybody. They’re already blaming the banks, they’re going to sue nursing homes & hospitals,” Thomas J. Donohue says

“ The class action lawsuit group in the US has already begun to sue anybody and everybody .
They 're @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re going to sue nursing homes & hospitals , ” says @ ThomasJDonohue @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s just not fair . ''
# covid19 pic.twitter.com/yENkCujEUR

“The class action lawsuit group in the US has already begun to sue anybody and everybody. They're already blaming the banks, they’re going to sue nursing homes & hospitals,” says @ThomasJDonohue CEO @USChamber adding "it’s just not fair." #covid19 pic.twitter.com/yENkCujEUR
— Julia Chatterley (@jchatterleyCNN) April 21, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--The Third Largest Oil ETN Is Liquidating! Crude Oil WTI 11.24 -9.19 -44.98%

If any of you are long USO , you might want to get out NOW !
USCF has suspended the creation process for its USO baskets… In the Form 8-K filed on April 20 , 2020 ( “ April 20 Form 8-K ” ) , United States Oil Fund , LP ( “ USO ” ) , indicated that it would announce through a current report on Form 8-K when USO has determined to temporarily suspend the issuance of additional Creation Baskets .
Today , USO issued all of its currently remaining registered shares .
The registration statement that USO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Securities and Exchange Commission ( “ SEC ” ) to register an additional 4,000,000,000 shares has not been declared effective .
As a result , USCF management is suspending the ability of the USO Authorized Purchasers to purchase new creation baskets until such time as the new USO registration statement for the additional shares has been declared effective by the SEC .
The ability of Authorized Purchasers to redeem Redemption Baskets during the suspension of the sale of Creation Baskets will remain unaffected .
In addition , trading of USO shares on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be discontinued as a result of the suspension of sales of Creation Baskets .
USO will issue a subsequent current report on Form 8-K to announce the effectiveness of the above-mentioned registration statement offering the additional , new shares as well as USO ’ s ability to resume offering Creation Baskets to its Authorized Purchasers .
In English that means the managers are basically transforming USO into a closed-end fund , and a ForexFlowLive notes , they are basically freezing new trades and probably going into management ( or damage limitation ) mode @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use over the years , now may be the best time ever to pull up the infamous Martha Stewart tweet : The reason is that while the largest crude oil ETF , the USO , which had just over $ 4.2 billion in assets as of yesterday has avoided liquidation for now , and instead converted itself into a close-end fund by suspending the sale of creation baskets , one of its biggest peers failed to avoid collapse after oil prices plunged to negative for the first time ever , and on Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ exercise its issuer call option ” and redeem in full the “ OIL ” Crude Oil ETN , which is the third largest oil-related ETF ( second if one ignores the UCO which is a 2x levered USO ) .
Needless to say , the fund has seen better days… … and now all those who lost about 80 % of their investment in the past few weeks , well they are now getting a few pennies on their dollar .
So what happens next ?
Barclays – who suckered in thousands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them a small portfion of their investment as it closes up OIL shop – explains .

If any of you are long USO, you might want to get out NOW!
Update (0855ET): USCF has suspended the creation process for its USO baskets…
In the Form 8-K filed on April 20, 2020 (“April 20 Form 8-K”), United States Oil Fund, LP (“USO”), indicated that it would announce through a current report on Form 8-K when USO has determined to temporarily suspend the issuance of additional Creation Baskets. Today, USO issued all of its currently remaining registered shares. The registration statement that USO filed on April 20, 2020 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) to register an additional 4,000,000,000 shares has not been declared effective. As a result, USCF management is suspending the ability of the USO Authorized Purchasers to purchase new creation baskets until such time as the new USO registration statement for the additional shares has been declared effective by the SEC. The ability of Authorized Purchasers to redeem Redemption Baskets during the suspension of the sale of Creation Baskets will remain unaffected. In addition, trading of USO shares on the NYSE Arca, Inc. will not be discontinued as a result of the suspension of sales of Creation Baskets. USO will issue a subsequent current report on Form 8-K to announce the effectiveness of the above-mentioned registration statement offering the additional, new shares as well as USO’s ability to resume offering Creation Baskets to its Authorized Purchasers.
In English that means the managers are basically transforming USO into a closed-end fund, and a ForexFlowLive notes, they are basically freezing new trades and probably going into management (or damage limitation) mode.
www.zerohedge.com/energy/uso-halted-worlds-biggest-oil-hedge-fund-manager-warns-etf-may-implode
Third largest oil ETN being liquidated.
Having seen its share of gratuitous use over the years, now may be the best time ever to pull up the infamous Martha Stewart tweet:
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OiI — Martha Stewart (@MarthaStewart) April 22, 2013
The reason is that while the largest crude oil ETF, the USO, which had just over $4.2 billion in assets as of yesterday has avoided liquidation for now, and instead converted itself into a close-end fund by suspending the sale of creation baskets, one of its biggest peers failed to avoid collapse after oil prices plunged to negative for the first time ever, and on Tuesday morning, Barclays announced that it would “exercise its issuer call option” and redeem in full the “OIL” Crude Oil ETN, which is the third largest oil-related ETF (second if one ignores the UCO which is a 2x levered USO).
Needless to say, the fund has seen better days…
… and now all those who lost about 80% of their investment in the past few weeks, well they are now getting a few pennies on their dollar.
So what happens next? Barclays – who suckered in thousands of retail investors and is now giving them a small portfion of their investment as it closes up OIL shop – explains.
www.zerohedge.com/commodities/third-largest-oil-etn-liquidating


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Economic Free Fall Message Could Be Sent Here!

Is the “ Mother of all support tests in play currently ?
” It humbly looks like it to me @ @ @ @ @ at the Banking Index and the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index on a quarterly @ @ @ @ @ decades .
Line ( 1 ) has been support and resistance for each over the @ @ @ @ @ .
The sharp declines this past quarter have each testing support at ( 2 ) @ @ @ @ @ is support until broken becomes very important currently !
!
!
If both of these @ @ @ @ @ ( 2 ) , they would be sending a signal that some tough times are @ @ @ @ @ eye on what Banks and Commodities do here , as odds are high they are @ @ @ @ @ very important long-term macro message at each ( 2 ) !

by Kimble Charting
Is the “Mother of all support tests in play currently?” It humbly looks like it to me friends!
This 2-pack looks at the Banking Index and the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index on a quarterly basis over the past few decades.
Line (1) has been support and resistance for each over the past twenty to forty years. The sharp declines this past quarter have each testing support at (2).
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The idea of support is support until broken becomes very important currently!!!
If both of these would break support at each (2), they would be sending a signal that some tough times are ahead.
Keep a close eye on what Banks and Commodities do here, as odds are high they are going to send us a very important long-term macro message at each (2)!


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Our Economy Is Toast – Why Now?

Our Economy Is Toast – Why Now?

Stock Up – This Could Last 18 Months

Stock Up – This Could Last 18 Months
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Harvard to get nearly $9 million from CARES act despite $40 billion endowment.

Harvard University – whose $ 40 billion endowment is the largest of all academic institutions around the world – will get nearly $ 9 million in coronavirus relief as part of the $ 2 trillion aid package approved by Congress last month , according to a report .
The federal government has mandated that about half of the $ 8,655,748 the Ivy League school will receive be reserved for emergency financial aid grants to students , the Harvard Crimson reported .
The CARES Act – Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security Act – allocated $ 14 billion for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the pandemic .
The Department of Education will release the first $ 6.28 billion to the academic institutions to cover expenses like course materials , technology , food and housing that students rang up “ related to disruptions in their educations due to the COVID-19 outbreak , ” the newspaper reported .
Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos in an April 9 letter urged school administrators to set a maximum amount for individual student aid grants to ensure wide distribution of the funds .
A Education Department spokesperson told Newsweek that DeVos “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of dollars to schools with huge endowments “ is poor use of taxpayer money ” and called on the schools to send unneeded funds to other needy schools in their state or region .

via NYPOST:
Harvard University – whose $40 billion endowment is the largest of all academic institutions around the world – will get nearly $9 million in coronavirus relief as part of the $2 trillion aid package approved by Congress last month, according to a report.
The federal government has mandated that about half of the $8,655,748 the Ivy League school will receive be reserved for emergency financial aid grants to students, the Harvard Crimson reported.
The CARES Act – Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act – allocated $14 billion for colleges and universities that have been affected by the pandemic.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Department of Education will release the first $6.28 billion to the academic institutions to cover expenses like course materials, technology, food and housing that students rang up “related to disruptions in their educations due to the COVID-19 outbreak,” the newspaper reported.
Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos in an April 9 letter urged school administrators to set a maximum amount for individual student aid grants to ensure wide distribution of the funds.
A Education Department spokesperson told Newsweek that DeVos “shares the concern” that handing millions of dollars to schools with huge endowments “is poor use of taxpayer money” and called on the schools to send unneeded funds to other needy schools in their state or region.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Will The Economy Go Back To Normal?

Will The Economy Go Back To Normal?

We like to present the best bullish and bearish narratives and toss away the bad ones .
We want to clarify the best reasons to go bearish or bullish .
Obviously , only one side will be correct depending on your time frame , but if you ’ re going to be wrong , at least don ’ t lose money because of a faulty narrative .
We ’ ve seen investors say that stocks are at the same level as “ insert year here ” which is bearish because the economy is worse than then .
The obvious rebuttal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely the highest since the Great Depression .
Should we take stocks back to 1930s levels because the economy is the weakest since then ?
Obviously , we shouldn ’ t do that because companies have made enormous progress since then .
The only companies that won ’ t recover from this recession are the ones with liquidity issues .
As we mentioned in a previous article , intrinsic value isn ’ t impacted much by a few quarters .
The bulls are making the assumption that once this virus is over , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The earnings recovery should be where the bulls battle the bears .
Whether or not the economy is worse than it was a few years ago doesn ’ t matter .
There are different circumstances in play now such as the expansive fiscal and monetary policy .
If stocks simply went to where the economy was previously in a similar state , we would always see bear markets take away 100 % of the bull market gains .
It takes more analysis than that to forecast outcomes .
If the government opens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t mean everything will go back to normal until there is a treatment or a vaccine developed .
The good news is we could see a vaccine developed by this fall .
The bad news is the government reopening is just the first step ; plus , if infections rise again , the government might need to reverse course .
The situation is highly uncertain .
It ’ s very tough to become knowledgeable on infectious diseases overnight since even the experts aren ’ t sure what will happen .
Let ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facts .
Even though South Korea has done well to contain coronavirus , movie attendance has flopped .
On the other hand , foreign movies aren ’ t being released and some movie theaters have closed preemptively .
There are multiple factors in play , but it ’ s fair to say the global economy won ’ t go back to normal after reopening unless there is treatment or a vaccine .
Obviously , the thesis isn ’ t about movie sales ; it ’ s about the entire economy .
Google ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Taiwan never shuttered its economy , its people are 22 % less likely to go to retail stores or recreation shops and are 28 % less likely to use mass transit .
In March the leading indicators index fell 6.7 % monthly which beat estimates for a 7 % decline .
That was the best beat in 8 years which is shocking because as you can see from the chart below , the monthly growth rate was by far the worst ever .
That ’ s an example of economists getting too negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To be clear , the leading indicators showing there is a recession afoot isn ’ t useful because we already knew this 4 weeks ago .
Yearly growth in the leading indicators index was -6.5 % .
Weakness was broad based as you ’ d expect .
Negativity came from unemployment insurance and stock prices .
Monthly growth in April might not be much worse because of the easy comp and the rise in stock prices .
However , yearly growth is very likely to be worse .
In the 6 month period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell 6.6 % .
The coincident index only fell 0.3 % in the past 6 months .
That means the leading to coincident index ratio is strongly signaling a recession .
In the week of April 11th , the ECRI leading index actually rose 4.5 points to 111.3 probably because of the rise in the stock market ( nothing else got better ) .
However , the growth rate fell 6.1 points to -42.5 % which is its worst growth rate ever going back to 1968 .
Its nominal trough 2 weeks prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 13th , 2009 .
Like the Conference Board report that we just described , the ECRI coincident index only just started to show weakness .
In the month of March , the coincident index fell 3.5 points to 183.9 which sent the growth rate down 3.7 points to -2.4 % .
That ’ s its worst growth since October 2009 and the lowest index since December 2018 .
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has fallen 18.5 points in the past 4 weeks ; that ’ s the biggest 4 week drop by far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see from the chart below .
The 2008 financial crisis looks like a blip on the radar compared to this .
We have already seen nearly a recession sized decline in 4 weeks .
Most of the decline might already have happened .
The stock market ’ s recent rise could help confidence .
The economy reopening and progress on a treatment or vaccine could also improve confidence .
The index fell 5.4 points after a record 6.4 point drop in the prior week .
Just like jobless claims , this index can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for much longer because it would hit zero soon .
It ’ s at 44.5 now .
If it fell 6.4 points every week , it would be at zero in 7 weeks .
The lowest it has been in its 34 year history is in the low 20s .
We ’ d only have about 3.5 weeks of 6.4 declines to get there .
Comfort is the lowest since October 2016 .
The economy is much worse than then which implies this index has some more room to fall .
The unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is in the mid-teens now ( based on initial jobless claims ) .
Within this survey , the economic sentiment index fell 7 points to 37.4 .
Its 10.6 point drop in the previous week was the biggest ever .
The buying climate index fell 5.9 points to 37 which is its lowest reading since December 2015 .
The personal finance index fell 12.1 points to 59.1 which is a 2 year low .
Comfort is at a 3 year low for Republicans .
It ’ s the lowest since January @ @ @ @ @ @ @ September 2012 for Democrats .
That ’ s before Trump was elected .
If Biden wins , Democrats ’ confidence will go up and Republicans ’ confidence will fall .
The betting market shows there is a 50.4 % chance Trump wins the presential election and a 43.2 % chance Biden wins .
However , the polls show Biden has a solid lead .
The average of recent polls shows Trump ’ s net job approval is -5.2 % and Biden is ahead by 5.5 % .
There ’ s no logic to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were x number of years ago because the economy is worse than then .
This is probably the worst economy since the Great Depression .
Stocks won ’ t go back to 1930s levels .
The government reopening the economy is only the first step to getting back to normal .
The leading economic indicators index and the ECRI leading index had their worst drops ever .
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index had its worst 4 week decline ever by far .

by UPFINA
We like to present the best bullish and bearish narratives and toss away the bad ones. We want to clarify the best reasons to go bearish or bullish. Obviously, only one side will be correct depending on your time frame, but if you’re going to be wrong, at least don’t lose money because of a faulty narrative. We’ve seen investors say that stocks are at the same level as “insert year here” which is bearish because the economy is worse than then. The obvious rebuttal to that is the unemployment rate is likely the highest since the Great Depression. Should we take stocks back to 1930s levels because the economy is the weakest since then? Obviously, we shouldn’t do that because companies have made enormous progress since then. The only companies that won’t recover from this recession are the ones with liquidity issues.
As we mentioned in a previous article, intrinsic value isn’t impacted much by a few quarters. The bulls are making the assumption that once this virus is over, most companies will get back to normal. The earnings recovery should be where the bulls battle the bears. Whether or not the economy is worse than it was a few years ago doesn’t matter. There are different circumstances in play now such as the expansive fiscal and monetary policy. If stocks simply went to where the economy was previously in a similar state, we would always see bear markets take away 100% of the bull market gains. It takes more analysis than that to forecast outcomes.
Government Opening Is One Step
If the government opens up the economy, it doesn’t mean everything will go back to normal until there is a treatment or a vaccine developed. The good news is we could see a vaccine developed by this fall. The bad news is the government reopening is just the first step; plus, if infections rise again, the government might need to reverse course. The situation is highly uncertain. It’s very tough to become knowledgeable on infectious diseases overnight since even the experts aren’t sure what will happen. Let’s stick with what we know and the facts.
Even though South Korea has done well to contain coronavirus, movie attendance has flopped. On the other hand, foreign movies aren’t being released and some movie theaters have closed preemptively. There are multiple factors in play, but it’s fair to say the global economy won’t go back to normal after reopening unless there is treatment or a vaccine. Obviously, the thesis isn’t about movie sales; it’s about the entire economy. Google’s cellphone location data shows even though Taiwan never shuttered its economy, its people are 22% less likely to go to retail stores or recreation shops and are 28% less likely to use mass transit.
Leading Indicators Crash
In March the leading indicators index fell 6.7% monthly which beat estimates for a 7% decline. That was the best beat in 8 years which is shocking because as you can see from the chart below, the monthly growth rate was by far the worst ever. That’s an example of economists getting too negative, which is a bullish sign.
The worst ever print on Leading Indicators beat expectations by the widest margin in over 8 years. pic.twitter.com/cC1AU1VGCK — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) April 17, 2020
To be clear, the leading indicators showing there is a recession afoot isn’t useful because we already knew this 4 weeks ago. Yearly growth in the leading indicators index was -6.5%. Weakness was broad based as you’d expect. Negativity came from unemployment insurance and stock prices. Monthly growth in April might not be much worse because of the easy comp and the rise in stock prices. However, yearly growth is very likely to be worse.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In the 6 month period ending in March, the leading index fell 6.6%. The coincident index only fell 0.3% in the past 6 months. That means the leading to coincident index ratio is strongly signaling a recession. In the week of April 11th, the ECRI leading index actually rose 4.5 points to 111.3 probably because of the rise in the stock market (nothing else got better). However, the growth rate fell 6.1 points to -42.5% which is its worst growth rate ever going back to 1968. Its nominal trough 2 weeks prior gave it its lowest reading since March 13th, 2009. Like the Conference Board report that we just described, the ECRI coincident index only just started to show weakness. In the month of March, the coincident index fell 3.5 points to 183.9 which sent the growth rate down 3.7 points to -2.4%. That’s its worst growth since October 2009 and the lowest index since December 2018.
Worst Drop In Consumer Comfort Ever
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has fallen 18.5 points in the past 4 weeks; that’s the biggest 4 week drop by far since the mid 1980s as you can see from the chart below.
Bloomberg's weekly reading on consumer comfort has experienced its largest decline in a four week span on record.
Read more in tonight's Closer: t.co/HzTFJLoF5H pic.twitter.com/TsR82ZSv7O — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) April 16, 2020
The 2008 financial crisis looks like a blip on the radar compared to this. We have already seen nearly a recession sized decline in 4 weeks. Most of the decline might already have happened. The stock market’s recent rise could help confidence. The economy reopening and progress on a treatment or vaccine could also improve confidence.
The index fell 5.4 points after a record 6.4 point drop in the prior week. Just like jobless claims, this index can’t fall at its recent rate for much longer because it would hit zero soon. It’s at 44.5 now. If it fell 6.4 points every week, it would be at zero in 7 weeks. The lowest it has been in its 34 year history is in the low 20s. We’d only have about 3.5 weeks of 6.4 declines to get there. Comfort is the lowest since October 2016. The economy is much worse than then which implies this index has some more room to fall. The unemployment rate in October 2016 was 4.9%. It is in the mid-teens now (based on initial jobless claims).
Within this survey, the economic sentiment index fell 7 points to 37.4. Its 10.6 point drop in the previous week was the biggest ever. The buying climate index fell 5.9 points to 37 which is its lowest reading since December 2015. The personal finance index fell 12.1 points to 59.1 which is a 2 year low. Comfort is at a 3 year low for Republicans. It’s the lowest since January 2017 for Independents and the lowest since September 2012 for Democrats. That’s before Trump was elected. If Biden wins, Democrats’ confidence will go up and Republicans’ confidence will fall. The betting market shows there is a 50.4% chance Trump wins the presential election and a 43.2% chance Biden wins. However, the polls show Biden has a solid lead. The average of recent polls shows Trump’s net job approval is -5.2% and Biden is ahead by 5.5%.
Conclusion
There’s no logic to saying stocks can’t be where they were x number of years ago because the economy is worse than then. This is probably the worst economy since the Great Depression. Stocks won’t go back to 1930s levels. The government reopening the economy is only the first step to getting back to normal. The leading economic indicators index and the ECRI leading index had their worst drops ever. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index had its worst 4 week decline ever by far.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--EU on the Brink: Brussels Warned of ‘Domino Effect’ on Italy’s Economy

He demanded his fellow leaders use the “ full firepower ” of Brussels to overcome the economic turmoil brought on @ @ @ @ @ In the first sign of an imminent high-level row , the Italian leader refused to @ @ @ @ @ of “ corona bonds ” to share the borrowing costs of the economic rebuilds .
@ @ @ @ @ ’ t allow his citizens to make “ unacceptable sacrifices ” in order to allow @ @ @ @ @ the bloc ’ s bailout mechanisms .

He demanded his fellow leaders use the “full firepower” of Brussels to overcome the economic turmoil brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. In the first sign of an imminent high-level row, the Italian leader refused to give up on the creation of “corona bonds” to share the borrowing costs of the economic rebuilds. Mr Conte insisted he wouldn’t allow his citizens to make “unacceptable sacrifices” in order to allow Rome to borrow funds from the bloc’s bailout mechanisms.
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www.express.co.uk/news/world/1271285/EU-coronavirus-news-Italy-economy-Giuseppe-Conte-Eurozone-latest


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--2020 is worse than 1984 | Police catch lockdown defiers with drones in Italy

Rimini police check local parks & beaches with drones to catch those who break restrictions amid # COVID19 pandemic .

Rimini police check local parks & beaches with drones to catch those who break restrictions amid #COVID19 pandemic.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--The Extremely Overvalued & Top Heavy U.S. Stock Market

After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th , turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory , almost any type of analysis , which was on its way out anyway , was rendered completely meaningless .
The new rocket scientists on Wall Street are the market Kremlinologists , who try to guess the new ranges where the Politburo will set yields and how many notes and bonds the Kommissar of Free Money is going to buy in order to monetize a $ 4 trillion-plus deficit and help rollover existing maturities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t The monetary authorities had little choice but to try and keep the ship afloat to fight another day , but junk bonds ?
With the funky action going on in crude , the markets could use a few less drillers , ergo less supply , but that is less likely as their junk debt is now backstopped .
Here ’ s to hoping there is an adjustment to policy after the panic subsides .
That doesn ’ t mean you can ’ t make money picking and being in the right stocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a very savvy ex-Morgan Stanley stock picker ( she knows exactly who she is ) and we had to concede she has been right on many companies .
The market does appear to be looking forward to the other side .
The new world looks like one with a few high tech giants in a less mobile ( physical ) , work from home world .
Maybe .
Not sure if that is good , sustainable or the body politic will stand for it .
Nevertheless , that micro stock picking world is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top-down global macro but it ’ s good to have someone with her caliber on the team .
What we are seeing scares the bejeezus out of us , however .
Our favorite ( and Warren Buffet ’ s ) valuation metric , is , unbelievably , and would be even without a COVID crisis , trading at its 94th valuation percentile while unemployment heads to the worst levels of the Great Depression , more than half of the Los Angeles workforce is unemployed , and uncertainty still reigns .
Even more unbelievable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below its dot.com high in Q1 2000 .
Of course , there will be some snapback when the economy reopens but there are 2nd , 3rd , ……………….nth order effects markets will still have to deal with .
Warren Buffet is apparently having nothing to do with this market , This also assumes the markets and economy were structurally sound pre-COVID , which , they were not , in our opinion , and we ’ re in multiple asset bubbles and weakened from the trade wars .
This BofA chart comes to us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thomas @ Callum_Thomas .
Sure wish the U.S. had his Prime Minister , a strong , decisive leader with brass balls .
Have you seen New Zealand ’ s COVID Curve ?
How about a trade , Callum ?
Four Generals : 2 Four-Stars , General Electric , and General Dynamics for Jacinda ?
Deal ?
The chart is stunning enough but check out the data table .
As of the Friday close , the big five alone make up 17.97 % of the value of almost all publicly traded stocks in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5000 .
Stunning .
There are an estimated 3500 publicly companies traded and on U.S. exchanges and the pool of public companies is getting smaller even while the population and economy have expanded .
This makes our stock market cap-to-GDP chart above a bit distorted and at current levels even more relatively overvalued than past levels .
The following WSJ tidbit is a bit dated but still rings true , The Second Great Gift Of The Magi Unless we are on the road to runaway inflation , not a zero probability with all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bounce is an incredible gift to rebalance , take some risk off , go to the virtual beach and wait this thing out .
We talked to a lot of traders over the weekend still trying to time the market and trade the noise .
Hard to get out even with your stops with 10 percent daily trapdoor moves , fellas ( both feminine and masculine ) .
I would rather surf elevator shafts .
The twenty- somethings in designer Nikes and physics degrees just haven ’ t learned or have enough context @ @ @ @ @ @ @ placebo than economics or that there is a tipping point when the printing presses run too hot .
Moreover , the waters are too rough for us to fish , which we learned as an undergrad working on the swordfish boats out of Newport during the summers .
Walking the plank with the harpoon , those were the daze !
Unless , the waters in the Catalina channel was too choppy .
Waiting For The Shorts To Capitulate The info we are conveying here is , no doubt , something you already know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is now driving and holding this market up here , in our opinion .
If the central banks were all-powerful , by the way , the Nikkei stock index would be at 200,000 instead of around 50 percent below its Dec 1989 high of around 40,000 .
Over the past 20 years , the Bank of Japan has bought up just about everything and bailed out everyone , probably including all the country ’ s sperm banks , yet Japan still has a big demographic problem !
Go figure .
When the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
We like to buy low , sell high .
Most prices are way too high .
It is preservation of capital time until we get to the value zone , folks .
Patience , young grasshopper .
Still sitting on the couch with cash and gold .
We will let you trade the noise .

via Global Macro Monitor:
Caveat freaking emptor.
After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th, turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory, almost any type of analysis, which was on its way out anyway, was rendered completely meaningless.
The new rocket scientists on Wall Street are the market Kremlinologists, who try to guess the new ranges where the Politburo will set yields and how many notes and bonds the Kommissar of Free Money is going to buy in order to monetize a $4 trillion-plus deficit and help rollover existing maturities. All good until it isn’t
The monetary authorities had little choice but to try and keep the ship afloat to fight another day, but junk bonds? With the funky action going on in crude, the markets could use a few less drillers, ergo less supply, but that is less likely as their junk debt is now backstopped. Here’s to hoping there is an adjustment to policy after the panic subsides.
Stock Picking
That doesn’t mean you can’t make money picking and being in the right stocks. We crossed swords this weekend with a very savvy ex-Morgan Stanley stock picker (she knows exactly who she is) and we had to concede she has been right on many companies.
The market does appear to be looking forward to the other side. The new world looks like one with a few high tech giants in a less mobile (physical), work from home world. Maybe.
Not sure if that is good, sustainable or the body politic will stand for it.
Nevertheless, that micro stock picking world is foreign to us as our background is top-down global macro but it’s good to have someone with her caliber on the team.
Global Macro
What we are seeing scares the bejeezus out of us, however.
Our favorite (and Warren Buffet’s) valuation metric, is, unbelievably, and would be even without a COVID crisis, trading at its 94th valuation percentile while unemployment heads to the worst levels of the Great Depression, more than half of the Los Angeles workforce is unemployed, and uncertainty still reigns. Even more unbelievable the valuation metric sits just 5 points below its dot.com high in Q1 2000.
Of course, there will be some snapback when the economy reopens but there are 2nd, 3rd,……………….nth order effects markets will still have to deal with.
Warren Buffet is apparently having nothing to do with this market,
“I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes. We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing ‘oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses]” — Charlie Munger
This also assumes the markets and economy were structurally sound pre-COVID, which, they were not, in our opinion, and we’re in multiple asset bubbles and weakened from the trade wars.
Top Heavy Market
This BofA chart comes to us via the great Kiwi analyst, Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas. Sure wish the U.S. had his Prime Minister, a strong, decisive leader with brass balls. Have you seen New Zealand’s COVID Curve?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
How about a trade, Callum? Four Generals: 2 Four-Stars, General Electric, and General Dynamics for Jacinda? Deal?
The chart is stunning enough but check out the data table.
As of the Friday close, the big five alone make up 17.97% of the value of almost all publicly traded stocks in the United States as measured by the Wilshire 5000. Stunning.
There are an estimated 3500 publicly companies traded and on U.S. exchanges and the pool of public companies is getting smaller even while the population and economy have expanded.
This makes our stock market cap-to-GDP chart above a bit distorted and at current levels even more relatively overvalued than past levels. The following WSJ tidbit is a bit dated but still rings true,
In 1996 there were 7,322 domestic companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Today there are only 3,671 – WSJ, Nov’17
The Second Great Gift Of The Magi
Unless we are on the road to runaway inflation, not a zero probability with all the monetization that is coming, this bounce is an incredible gift to rebalance, take some risk off, go to the virtual beach and wait this thing out.
We talked to a lot of traders over the weekend still trying to time the market and trade the noise. Hard to get out even with your stops with 10 percent daily trapdoor moves, fellas (both feminine and masculine). I would rather surf elevator shafts.
The twenty- somethings in designer Nikes and physics degrees just haven’t learned or have enough context to understand monetary policy is now more placebo than economics or that there is a tipping point when the printing presses run too hot.
Moreover, the waters are too rough for us to fish, which we learned as an undergrad working on the swordfish boats out of Newport during the summers. Walking the plank with the harpoon, those were the daze! Unless, the waters in the Catalina channel was too choppy.
Waiting For The Shorts To Capitulate
The info we are conveying here is, no doubt, something you already know. It is the record short interest that is now driving and holding this market up here, in our opinion.
Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years. Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago. – WSJ
If the central banks were all-powerful, by the way, the Nikkei stock index would be at 200,000 instead of around 50 percent below its Dec 1989 high of around 40,000. Over the past 20 years, the Bank of Japan has bought up just about everything and bailed out everyone, probably including all the country’s sperm banks, yet Japan still has a big demographic problem! Go figure.
When the placebo effect on stocks goes? Yikes!
Upshot
We like to buy low, sell high. Most prices are way too high. It is preservation of capital time until we get to the value zone, folks. Patience, young grasshopper.
Still sitting on the couch with cash and gold. We will let you trade the noise.
Wilshire 500 Fact Sheet


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--Financial Times op-ed: Bailing out the oil industry brings a fate worse than death. Zombie companies

Financial Times op-ed: Bailing out the oil industry brings a fate worse than death. Zombie companies would be created that must be kept afloat with taxpayer dollars

Whenever things went wrong growing up , my dad would tell me , “ What doesn ’ t kill you only makes you stronger.
” Dying was supposed to be the worst-case scenario .
He never mentioned zombies .
But that ’ s what a bailout for the oil industry would create : zombie companies that can ’ t earn the cost of staying in business , kept afloat with taxpayer dollars .
The oil patch in the US has been hit by a double whammy .
The Saudi-Russian fight for market share helped drop the price of West Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just above $ 20 a barrel .
Then came coronavirus lockdowns , and an unprecedented collapse in demand for oil .
While Easter Sunday ’ s Opec+ deal should reduce the supply glut , it is dwarfed by demand problems : WTI fell to around $ 18 a barrel on Friday .
With storage facilities near full , there will soon be no place to put the oil .
Drillers , producers and oilfield servicers will be forced to halt production and lay off workers .
Washington is now in bailout mode .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
The Energy department is developing a plan to pay producers to leave crude in the ground .
There are valid economic arguments for a bailout .
Energy is an important driver of investment .
The last time WTI dropped significantly , in 2015-16 , capital expenditures contracted and the US fell into an industrial and manufacturing recession .
Employment in the oil and gas sector fell by about one-third .
Some say it contributed to the discontent that pushed Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016 .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production companies was broken before oil prices fell .
Fuelled by cheap credit , US shale producers borrowed heavily to invest in drilling , causing the US energy bond market to triple in size over the past decade .
The focus has been on producing quantity to conquer market share and the flood of oil has yielded low returns for equity investors , as frackers reinvested windfalls and raised top executive pay .
US fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy , for example , hasn ’ t generated a single year of positive free cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debts rose along with oil supplies , a shakeout was inevitable .
A bailout would throw good money after bad , propping up an industry desperately in need of productivity gains and consolidation .
Instead , the industry should be left to adapt .
According to analysts at Rystad Energy , shale producers should be able to cut costs by 16 per cent this year , productivity gains that would not happen with government funding .
High-cost or highly indebted small producers — and their infrastructure — should be taken over by larger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result in bankruptcies and debt write-offs , it would reduce financing costs for those left standing .
The industry would come out stronger and more profitable .
A backhanded industry argument for a bailout is that bankruptcies threaten investors and banks with big losses .
That ’ s the nature of capitalism .
Investors take risks and are often rewarded with high returns .
Sometimes investments go south and they have to absorb losses , but it ’ s not a systemic risk .
A compilation of annual disclosures by Bloomberg News shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fargo and JPMorgan are the largest US bank energy lenders .
Only about 1 to 3 per cent of their portfolios are exposed to the industry .
A series of defaults would hurt , but it would not alone bring down the big banks .

via ft:
Whenever things went wrong growing up, my dad would tell me, “What doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger.” Dying was supposed to be the worst-case scenario. He never mentioned zombies. But that’s what a bailout for the oil industry would create: zombie companies that can’t earn the cost of staying in business, kept afloat with taxpayer dollars.
The oil patch in the US has been hit by a double whammy. The Saudi-Russian fight for market share helped drop the price of West Texas Intermediate, the American benchmark, to just above $20 a barrel. Then came coronavirus lockdowns, and an unprecedented collapse in demand for oil. While Easter Sunday’s Opec+ deal should reduce the supply glut, it is dwarfed by demand problems: WTI fell to around $18 a barrel on Friday.
With storage facilities near full, there will soon be no place to put the oil. Drillers, producers and oilfield servicers will be forced to halt production and lay off workers. Washington is now in bailout mode. The Trump administration offered storage space in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Energy department is developing a plan to pay producers to leave crude in the ground.
There are valid economic arguments for a bailout. Energy is an important driver of investment. The last time WTI dropped significantly, in 2015-16, capital expenditures contracted and the US fell into an industrial and manufacturing recession. Employment in the oil and gas sector fell by about one-third. Some say it contributed to the discontent that pushed Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016.
But the business model for many exploration and production companies was broken before oil prices fell. Fuelled by cheap credit, US shale producers borrowed heavily to invest in drilling, causing the US energy bond market to triple in size over the past decade. The focus has been on producing quantity to conquer market share and the flood of oil has yielded low returns for equity investors, as frackers reinvested windfalls and raised top executive pay. US fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy, for example, hasn’t generated a single year of positive free cash flow in the past decade. As debts rose along with oil supplies, a shakeout was inevitable.
A bailout would throw good money after bad, propping up an industry desperately in need of productivity gains and consolidation. Instead, the industry should be left to adapt. According to analysts at Rystad Energy, shale producers should be able to cut costs by 16 per cent this year, productivity gains that would not happen with government funding. High-cost or highly indebted small producers — and their infrastructure — should be taken over by larger, solvent companies. While that would result in bankruptcies and debt write-offs, it would reduce financing costs for those left standing. The industry would come out stronger and more profitable.
A backhanded industry argument for a bailout is that bankruptcies threaten investors and banks with big losses. That’s the nature of capitalism. Investors take risks and are often rewarded with high returns. Sometimes investments go south and they have to absorb losses, but it’s not a systemic risk. A compilation of annual disclosures by Bloomberg News shows Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan are the largest US bank energy lenders. Only about 1 to 3 per cent of their portfolios are exposed to the industry. A series of defaults would hurt, but it would not alone bring down the big banks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--CRITICAL ALERT: The Debt Market WARNS..

CRITICAL ALERT: The Debt Market WARNS..

The Paycheck Protection Program has run out of money .
The Paycheck Protection Program exhausted nearly $ 350 billion set @ @ @ @ @ small businesses… BUT WALL STREET CONTINUES TO GET UNLIMITED FUNDS…

The Paycheck Protection Program has run out of money. The Paycheck Protection Program exhausted nearly $350 billion set aside for low-interest loans to small businesses… BUT WALL STREET CONTINUES TO GET UNLIMITED FUNDS…
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--‘Worst is yet ahead of us’ in coronavirus outbreak, WHO warns – Trump says he’ll ‘suspend immigratio

‘Worst is yet ahead of us’ in coronavirus outbreak, WHO warns – Trump says he’ll ‘suspend immigration’ into the US

The head of the World Health Organization has warned that “ the worst is yet ahead of us ” in the coronavirus outbreak , raising new alarm bells about the pandemic just as many countries are beginning to ease restrictive measures .
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus didn ’ t specify exactly why he believes that the outbreak could get worse .
Some people , though , have pointed to the likely future spread of the illness through Africa , where health systems are far less developed .
READ MORE : Ontario ’ s coronavirus numbers may have peaked , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the coronavirus pandemic and stood in stark contrast to the president ’ s recent cautious optimism .
By ANITA KUMAR AND MATTHEW CHOI 4/21/20 , 6:16 AM CET U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday night said that he was suspending immigration into the U.S. because of the coronavirus pandemic .
“ In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy , as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens , I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ announcement stood in contrast to Trump ’ s recent messages of cautious optimism about the country soon reemerging from weeks of lockdowns designed to contain the virus .
The president has repeatedly tried to downplay the severity of the outbreak since its arrival in the country , and his push to reopen the economy has put him at odds with some of the nation ‘ s governors and , at times , his top health experts .
Trump did not hint at making any drastic immigration moves during his lengthy daily coronavirus news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largely taken a back seat during the pandemic as the president hopes to salvage a strong economy that had become one of his major campaign points in the lead-up to the November election .
Trump has previously boasted that closing the borders to foreigners traveling from China demonstrated his administration ‘ s serious and early response to the threat from the coronavirus .
International travel has come to a virtual standstill as countries across the globe have imposed travel restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease .
Trump ’ s tweet did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would take : He could simply suspend entries for a period of time , or cancel a specific program altogether for the year .
The Department of Homeland Security is still drafting the executive order , according to three people familiar with the situation .
One possibility that has been discussed is an exemption for temporary guest workers , including those who work on farms .
When asked what promoted the decision , a top DHS official responded : “ 22 million unemployed Americans and counting due to Covid-19 .
”

The head of the World Health Organization has warned that “the worst is yet ahead of us” in the coronavirus outbreak, raising new alarm bells about the pandemic just as many countries are beginning to ease restrictive measures.
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus didn’t specify exactly why he believes that the outbreak could get worse. Some people, though, have pointed to the likely future spread of the illness through Africa, where health systems are far less developed.
READ MORE: Ontario’s coronavirus numbers may have peaked, new modelling suggests
globalnews.ca/news/6842358/who-warning-lockdown-worst-coronavirus/
The suspension is related to the coronavirus pandemic and stood in stark contrast to the president’s recent cautious optimism.
By ANITA KUMAR AND MATTHEW CHOI 4/21/20, 6:16 AM CET
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday night said that he was suspending immigration into the U.S. because of the coronavirus pandemic.
“In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!“ Trump posted on Twitter.
The announcement stood in contrast to Trump’s recent messages of cautious optimism about the country soon reemerging from weeks of lockdowns designed to contain the virus. The president has repeatedly tried to downplay the severity of the outbreak since its arrival in the country, and his push to reopen the economy has put him at odds with some of the nation‘s governors and, at times, his top health experts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Trump did not hint at making any drastic immigration moves during his lengthy daily coronavirus news briefing earlier Monday evening. Immigration has largely taken a back seat during the pandemic as the president hopes to salvage a strong economy that had become one of his major campaign points in the lead-up to the November election.
Trump has previously boasted that closing the borders to foreigners traveling from China demonstrated his administration‘s serious and early response to the threat from the coronavirus. International travel has come to a virtual standstill as countries across the globe have imposed travel restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease.
Trump’s tweet did not make clear what specific action he would take: He could simply suspend entries for a period of time, or cancel a specific program altogether for the year.
The Department of Homeland Security is still drafting the executive order, according to three people familiar with the situation. One possibility that has been discussed is an exemption for temporary guest workers, including those who work on farms.
When asked what promoted the decision, a top DHS official responded: “22 million unemployed Americans and counting due to Covid-19.”
www.politico.eu/article/trump-says-hell-suspend-immigration-into-the-us/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-21--First it was oil, then it was farmers, then it was everyone else

Unless you ’ ve been living under a rock you saw oil today .
People smarter than me like my husband ’ s boyfriend tried to explain that the crash for oil was limited to WTI was for contracts for this month .
That contracts for other months like May and June are trading above zero dollars .
Ultimately , this won ’ t really matter .
Demand still low .
It costs money to store oil .
Yada yada yada .
US crude production etc .
firms and other industries that can ’ t deal with oil so low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure what other autists have been seeing , but other commodoties going the way of oil too ( someone else said this elsewhere , but it ’ s weird that oil etc .
better reflect the fundamentals to the economy than S & P , but that ’ s an analysis for a different way .
Indices might be rational at the moment in light of JPOW ) .
This thread has a good overview .
Corn , soy beans , sugar all on the process to cratering .
Milk in a similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very grim right now .
We ’ ve been told there is 10 percent too much milk in the country , and even if every plant opened up that was closed due to all the manufacturing being shut down , it would take a while for the milk to clear , ” Yeaton said .
RIP to farmers .
Think Donnie has enough in his bank account to keep Carnival , Boeing , Exxon and the Mid West solvent ?
At this point , deflation is an obvious concern .
There ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pour milk on the ground and drive crops into the dirt to meet margins or diminish loss .
At that point , we than have a supply shortage .
Some nerds at NASA think the sun won ’ t shine as bright this year .
This is important for the sake of agriculture .
Not the article I saw earlier , but from what I can gather , it ’ s going to be hard to grow as many crops next cycle .
Start with low prices like we have now , farmers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices go up , can ’ t grow as much next year , low supply , prices go up , inflation go up bigly .
You get the idea .
TLDR : Economy is bad .
Bear szn will be upon us eventually .
Bankruptcies gon na go up bigly .
The crystal ball says some deflation could be coming .
But maybe something even darker is under the surface .
“ NASA ’ s forecast for the next solar cycle ( 25 ) reveals it will be the weakest of the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number , a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50 % lower than the most recent one .
In 2008 the researchers used this method to make their prediction , which was then put to the test as the current solar cycle unfolded over the last decade .
It has performed well , with the forecast strength and timing of the solar maximum aligning closely with reality .
NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum ( 1790-1830 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brutal cold , crop loss , famine , war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it : ( i.e .
global temp decline by 2 degrees celsius ) AND wait for it….. Crops that had managed to sprout were frozen out in early June , replanted , and frozen again in July .
Very few crops were actually harvested , and of those that were , the yields were very poor .
In turn , food and grain prices skyrocketed — for example , in 1815 , oats sold for $ 0.12 a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bushel would set you back $ 0.92 .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by QuaintSofaChallenge
Unless you’ve been living under a rock you saw oil today. People smarter than me like my husband’s boyfriend tried to explain that the crash for oil was limited to WTI was for contracts for this month. That contracts for other months like May and June are trading above zero dollars. Ultimately, this won’t really matter. Demand still low. It costs money to store oil. Yada yada yada. US crude production etc. firms and other industries that can’t deal with oil so low are going underwater. Quick.
Not sure what other autists have been seeing, but other commodoties going the way of oil too (someone else said this elsewhere, but it’s weird that oil etc. better reflect the fundamentals to the economy than S&P, but that’s an analysis for a different way. Indices might be rational at the moment in light of JPOW).
Oil is deflationary. Soft commodities look like they are going to follow suit and the US farmer is sadly going to be driven into bankruptcy, just like the shale patch… 1/ — Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) April 21, 2020
This thread has a good overview. Corn, soy beans, sugar all on the process to cratering. Milk in a similar spot.
“It’s looking very grim right now. We’ve been told there is 10 percent too much milk in the country, and even if every plant opened up that was closed due to all the manufacturing being shut down, it would take a while for the milk to clear,” Yeaton said.
www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/as-milk-gets-dumped-nationally-dairy-farmers-in-nh-nervous-about-their-futures-during-covid/article_f9f5167c-42ca-5934-b534-1da6395c0c25.html
RIP to farmers. Think Donnie has enough in his bank account to keep Carnival, Boeing, Exxon and the Mid West solvent?
At this point, deflation is an obvious concern. There’s an alternative theory that farmers will basically pour milk on the ground and drive crops into the dirt to meet margins or diminish loss. At that point, we than have a supply shortage. Some nerds at NASA think the sun won’t shine as bright this year. This is important for the sake of agriculture.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.almanac.com/news/astronomy/astronomy/solar-minimum-approaching-mini-ice-age
Not the article I saw earlier, but from what I can gather, it’s going to be hard to grow as many crops next cycle. Start with low prices like we have now, farmers react and create a lower supply, prices go up, can’t grow as much next year, low supply, prices go up, inflation go up bigly. You get the idea.
TLDR: Economy is bad. Bear szn will be upon us eventually. Bankruptcies gonna go up bigly. The crystal ball says some deflation could be coming. But maybe something even darker is under the surface.
Edit: Here’s the actual article on solar activity electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/
“NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. In 2008 the researchers used this method to make their prediction, which was then put to the test as the current solar cycle unfolded over the last decade. It has performed well, with the forecast strength and timing of the solar maximum aligning closely with reality.
NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it: (i.e. global temp decline by 2 degrees celsius) AND wait for it….. Crops that had managed to sprout were frozen out in early June, replanted, and frozen again in July. Very few crops were actually harvested, and of those that were, the yields were very poor. In turn, food and grain prices skyrocketed — for example, in 1815, oats sold for $0.12 a bushel but by the next year, a bushel would set you back $0.92.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.