investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Technically Speaking: Why This Is Still A Sellable Rally, For Now.

In this past weekend ’ s missive “ Trump Infects Markets Bounce , ” we discussed even though the market had bounced off support , we still consider it a “ sellable rally , ” for now .
The comment generated quite a few emails , mainly since we also discussed that markets are generally positive in election years .
To wit : It ’ s a great question that drives to the heart of our risk management process .
Let ’ s start with our comment from the newsletter : “ Notably , while the rally that we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up a fair bit of the previous oversold condition , the MACD “ buy signal ” was triggered on Friday .
Such suggests that we could see some additional buying next week .
However , again , with the failure at the 50-dma , such means continuing to use rallies to rebalance risks accordingly.
” The good news is that we did indeed see a spurt of “ additional buying ” on Monday , which allowed the market to clear the 50-dma .
Such puts the previous September highs back within the context @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago .
The bad news is that investors chased the market on “ hopes ” for further stimulus and a “ Biden ” victory during the upcoming election .
There is a reasonable probability that one or both of those outcomes will not occur .
Lastly , as shown below , while the very short-term technicals are bullish , the intermediate-term measures have not reversed yet .
Such could limit upside potential from current levels .
If we break down the commentary and charts into critical points , we can gain some clarity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50-dma .
( bullish ) • The overall trend from the September highs is negative ( bearish ) • MACD is back to overbought ( neutral to bearish ) Notably , the markets have returned to more neutral territory , and as noted previously , the correction has been orderly .
So , why do we think this is still a “ sellable rally ?
” In the short-term , we remain “ bullish-biased ” in portfolios .
However , there are several significant concerns we have over the intermediate to long-term .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hugely suppressed .
“ Over-confidence ” by investors in the market is a “ contrarian ” indicator we watch closely .
As noted above , the recent decline has shown no signs of investors “ panic selling , ” instead they appear to have become even more complacent .
Notably , while the recent correction did reduce our fear-greed index somewhat , it remains elevated .
Again , like volatility , overall investment positioning doesn ’ t show “ fear ” of a deeper correction .
While the indicator is currently in more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gains are likely limited short-term .
The same goes for positioning by professional investors .
With positioning back to more neutral territory , any rally in the market is likely limited .
The current psychological conditions suggest the short-term bottom in the market remains intact .
However , given that much of the more “ bullish ” exuberance was not displaced , the upside may get confined to previous highs .
As noted , much of the impetus for the rally was “ hope ” of more stimulus .
However , currently , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Act occurring before the election , particularly with the Senate in recess .
Such could wind up disappointing investors in the short-term , particularly as economic growth continues to wane .
In “ Earnings Don ’ t Support The Bullish Thesis , ” I noted that while estimates were lowered by Standard & Poors ( latest update was September 30th ) , the earnings revisions continue to fall despite media commentary about a strongly recovering economy .
Let me point out some critical points : • In January and February , investors were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on REPORTED earnings of $ 171/share by the end of 2021 .
• Today investors are paying roughly the same price for 2021 earnings that are near $ 30/share lower .
• While earnings revisions did tick HIGHER at the beginning of August , estimates through the end of 2020 hit a new low just 2-weeks later .
• In January of 2020 , investors bought stocks because valuations were cheap based on 2021 estimates .
• In September of 2020 , investors are buying on the same media spin , but are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t a new story , but one that existed over the last two years as shown by the S & P 500 total return attribution analysis .

by Lance Roberts
In this past weekend’s missive “Trump Infects Markets Bounce,” we discussed even though the market had bounced off support, we still consider it a “sellable rally,” for now. The comment generated quite a few emails, mainly since we also discussed that markets are generally positive in election years. To wit:
“Lance, I am confused. On one hand you say that investors should use any near-term rally to rebalance risks. But then discuss how markets tend to be positive the majority of the time during election years. I am not sure what to do.” – KC
It’s a great question that drives to the heart of our risk management process.
Let’s start with our comment from the newsletter:
“Notably, while the rally that we have witnessed from the recent lows has eaten up a fair bit of the previous oversold condition, the MACD “buy signal” was triggered on Friday. Such suggests that we could see some additional buying next week. However, again, with the failure at the 50-dma, such means continuing to use rallies to rebalance risks accordingly.”
Chart updated through Monday’s close.
The good news is that we did indeed see a spurt of “additional buying” on Monday, which allowed the market to clear the 50-dma. Such puts the previous September highs back within the context of the rally that started two weeks ago.
The bad news is that investors chased the market on “hopes” for further stimulus and a “Biden” victory during the upcoming election. There is a reasonable probability that one or both of those outcomes will not occur.
Lastly, as shown below, while the very short-term technicals are bullish, the intermediate-term measures have not reversed yet. Such could limit upside potential from current levels.
Conflicting Information
If we break down the commentary and charts into critical points, we can gain some clarity.
The market broke above resistance (bullish) MACD has crossed positively, issuing a “buy signal.” (bullish) The market broke above the 50-dma. (bullish) The overall trend from the September highs is negative (bearish) MACD is back to overbought (neutral to bearish) Intermediate-term “sell-signals” still firm (bearish)
Notably, the markets have returned to more neutral territory, and as noted previously, the correction has been orderly.
“Over the last couple of weeks, we have been discussing the ongoing market correction. As shown below, the sell-off has been orderly and not one of a ‘panic’ induced decline.“ – The Selloff Is Overdone,
So, why do we think this is still a “sellable rally?”
In the short-term, we remain “bullish-biased” in portfolios. However, there are several significant concerns we have over the intermediate to long-term.
Psychology:
Despite the recent correction, volatility remains hugely suppressed. “Over-confidence” by investors in the market is a “contrarian” indicator we watch closely. As noted above, the recent decline has shown no signs of investors “panic selling,” instead they appear to have become even more complacent.
Notably, while the recent correction did reduce our fear-greed index somewhat, it remains elevated. Again, like volatility, overall investment positioning doesn’t show “fear” of a deeper correction. While the indicator is currently in more “neutral” territory, it suggests gains are likely limited short-term.
The same goes for positioning by professional investors. With positioning back to more neutral territory, any rally in the market is likely limited.
The current psychological conditions suggest the short-term bottom in the market remains intact. However, given that much of the more “bullish” exuberance was not displaced, the upside may get confined to previous highs.
As noted, much of the impetus for the rally was “hope” of more stimulus. However, currently, there is little evidence of another CARES Act occurring before the election, particularly with the Senate in recess. Such could wind up disappointing investors in the short-term, particularly as economic growth continues to wane.
Fundamental
In “Earnings Don’t Support The Bullish Thesis,” I noted that while estimates were lowered by Standard & Poors (latest update was September 30th), the earnings revisions continue to fall despite media commentary about a strongly recovering economy.
Let me point out some critical points:
In January and February, investors were bidding up stocks to all-time highs based on REPORTED earnings of $171/share by the end of 2021. Today investors are paying roughly the same price for 2021 earnings that are near $30/share lower. While earnings revisions did tick HIGHER at the beginning of August, estimates through the end of 2020 hit a new low just 2-weeks later.
A Simple Message
In January of 2020, investors bought stocks because valuations were cheap based on 2021 estimates.
In September of 2020, investors are buying on the same media spin, but are paying more for less.
But this isn’t a new story, but one that existed over the last two years as shown by the S&P 500 total return attribution analysis.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--‘If you don’t, I won’t forget it’: Trump’s threat to Bill Barr to charge Biden and Obama over spygat

‘If you don’t, I won’t forget it’: Trump’s threat to Bill Barr to charge Biden and Obama over spygate

• Trump said he was ‘ going to have to get involved ’ with the prosecution of Hillary Clinton for her email scandal • He said he has spoken to Attorney General Bill Barr about the evidence in John Durham ’ s probe fo alleged FBI misconduct • ‘ And I say , Bill , we ’ ve got plenty , you don ’ t need any more ’ • He said if Barr doesn ’ t indict people Trump identified as committing crimes , ‘ I won ’ t forget it ’ • He said ‘ that includes Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did not immediately respond for comment about Trump ’ s characterization of his conversations with the attorney general President Donald Trump said in a televised interview that he has spoken to Attorney General Bill Barr about the high-stakes Durham probe and received assurances the government has ‘ plenty ’ of evidence to bring charges against his main political rivals .
He made the extraordinary statement – which if accurate would be a breach of normal firewalls between prosecutors and the executive in a politically charged investigation – in an appearance on the Fox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself cured of the coronavirus .
The Justice Department did not immediately respond when asked to confirm the president ’ s characterization of his conversation with Barr .

Trump said he was ‘going to have to get involved’ with the prosecution of Hillary Clinton for her email scandal
He said he has spoken to Attorney General Bill Barr about the evidence in John Durham’s probe fo alleged FBI misconduct
‘And I say, Bill, we’ve got plenty, you don’t need any more’
He said if Barr doesn’t indict people Trump identified as committing crimes, ‘I won’t forget it’
He said ‘that includes Obama and it includes Biden’
DOJ did not immediately respond for comment about Trump’s characterization of his conversations with the attorney general
President Donald Trump said in a televised interview that he has spoken to Attorney General Bill Barr about the high-stakes Durham probe and received assurances the government has ‘plenty’ of evidence to bring charges against his main political rivals.
He made the extraordinary statement – which if accurate would be a breach of normal firewalls between prosecutors and the executive in a politically charged investigation – in an appearance on the Fox Business Network, where he also pronounced himself cured of the coronavirus.
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The Justice Department did not immediately respond when asked to confirm the president’s characterization of his conversation with Barr.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8819875/Donald-Trump-says-told-Bill-Barr-weve-got-plenty-indict-Joe-Biden-Barack-Obama.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Chris Cuomo suggests that Kamala‘s debate performance was because of “black woman syndrome”

Chris Cuomo suggests that Kamala ‘ s debate performance was because of “ black woman syndrome ” pic.twitter.com/yqNAECgdXf

Chris Cuomo suggests that Kamala‘s debate performance was because of “black woman syndrome” pic.twitter.com/yqNAECgdXf
— Jewish Deplorable 🇺🇸 (@TrumpJew) October 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--China censored Pence but not Harris

China censored Pence but not Harris

China censored Pence ’ s comments on China .
Signal returned when Harris began talking again .

by throwaway888253
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China censored Pence’s comments on China. Signal returned when Harris began talking again.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--US Treasury placed sanctions on 18 Iranian banks

# BREAKING : US Treasury placed sanctions on 18 Iranian banks

#BREAKING: US Treasury placed sanctions on 18 Iranian banks
— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) October 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Your State is LYING To You. In fact, ALL 50 States Are Lying To Citizens and Here’s Why…

Right now , the following info is arguably the most critical component in exposing the outright fraud that has been perpetrated onto the American people .
When someone gets a Covid test , they ’ re getting what ’ s called a PCR test .
That test has to amplify or use “ cycles ” or “ cycle thresholds ” ( CT ) in order to look for the virus in someone .
The more amplifications that are needed , the less strands of virus exist .
Here ’ s the rub : Live Covid-19 RNA Is NOT found After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is simply not enough genetic material to cause harm or even be infectious .
It ’ s literally inert ( dead ) strands of the virus , which now exist virtually everywhere .
There ’ s a very high chance that the bottom of your shoes have dead RNA .
This is very well established among a wide population in epidemiology .
So how many amplifications does your state use for PCR testing ?
Likely 40+ .
What does this mean ?
It means that the vast majority of all positive “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( likely 60 % to 80 % ) , leaving just 20 % to 40 % of the current reported cases that are true positives .
The state ’ s health officials are banking that you ’ re too stupid to understand or care .
Prove them wrong and share this information .
Make your voice heard .

Right now, the following info is arguably the most critical component in exposing the outright fraud that has been perpetrated onto the American people.
When someone gets a Covid test, they’re getting what’s called a PCR test. That test has to amplify or use “cycles” or “cycle thresholds” (CT) in order to look for the virus in someone. The more amplifications that are needed, the less strands of virus exist. Here’s the rub: Live Covid-19 RNA Is NOT found After 30 amplifications. At that threshold, there is simply not enough genetic material to cause harm or even be infectious. It’s literally inert (dead) strands of the virus, which now exist virtually everywhere. There’s a very high chance that the bottom of your shoes have dead RNA. This is very well established among a wide population in epidemiology.
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So how many amplifications does your state use for PCR testing? Likely 40+. What does this mean? It means that the vast majority of all positive “cases” in your state are false. (likely 60% to 80%), leaving just 20% to 40% of the current reported cases that are true positives. The state’s health officials are banking that you’re too stupid to understand or care. Prove them wrong and share this information. Make your voice heard.
Kansas Department of Health uses PCR cycle threshold cutoff of 42 according to this document (great find by @DrMeganMo!!) This is why every person should know what cycle their positive was found at. 42 is WAY too high – live virus stops being found at 25-30. t.co/mqJM7Bl6mr — Eric (@IAmTheActualET) October 7, 2020
h/t Dr. Calhoun


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Mainstream Financial Press Reports Central Banks Selling Gold (Or Wants Markets To Think So)

by Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ( GATA ) With its report below the Financial Times assumes today that all official central bank gold-reporting data is accurate and complete , that central banks have no secrets about the monetary metal , and that they don ’ t sometimes stash it in accounts not reported to the International Monetary Fund or World Gold Council .
Of course that ’ s not true .
Central banks often accumulate gold for a long time before reporting it , if they report it at all .
The FT also forgets here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ century central banks regularly reported selling gold even as the gold price rose steadily .
Most likely the central banks were not really selling gold at all but just granting cash settlement to gold leases they had issued , and no new metal was hitting the market .
The gold involved had hit the market many years earlier and was long gone from central bank possession .
But pursuing these issues critically would constitute journalism , which isn ’ t permitted in mainstream financial news organizations in regard to gold .
The report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ message central banks want conveyed to the markets , and as always the Financial Times is a most reliable messenger .
Central banks became net sellers of gold in August for the first time in a year and a half , in the latest indication that demand for the metal is slowing following a record-setting rally .
Global central banks sold a net 12.3 tonnes of gold over the month , according to estimates published on Wednesday by the World Gold Council , an industry-backed body .
The shift came just as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 2,070 a troy ounce in early August .
It has since fallen more than 8 per cent to $ 1,890 per ounce .
The latest data reflect the pullback of some major buyers as countries free up resources to deal with the coronavirus crisis .
“ All central banks around the world are facing a lot of pressure for liquidity , ” said Bernard Dahdah , an analyst at Natixis in Paris .
“ Now is not the time to hoard gold .
The hospitals need the money , ” he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 5.8 billion worth of gold in the first eight months of the year , according to government statistics .
… … For the remainder of the report : Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee , cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA ’ s recent fundraising campaign , are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana , Texas .
Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $ 240 , which includes shipping via Federal Express @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look like : Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here : GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold .
So if you like wine and buy it anyway , why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals ?
To order a case of GATA-label wine , please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236 @ aol.com .
“ Rigged ” is a concise explanation of government ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credits GATA ’ s work exposing it .
Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA .
Buy a copy for $ 14.99 through Amazon — — or for an additional $ 3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert @ comcast.net .
Help keep GATA going : GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code .
Its e-mail dispatches are free , and you can subscribe at : To contribute @ @ @ @ @ @

by Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA)
With its report below the Financial Times assumes today that all official central bank gold-reporting data is accurate and complete, that central banks have no secrets about the monetary metal, and that they don’t sometimes stash it in accounts not reported to the International Monetary Fund or World Gold Council.
Of course that’s not true. Central banks often accumulate gold for a long time before reporting it, if they report it at all.
The FT also forgets here that in the first decade of this century central banks regularly reported selling gold even as the gold price rose steadily. Most likely the central banks were not really selling gold at all but just granting cash settlement to gold leases they had issued, and no new metal was hitting the market. The gold involved had hit the market many years earlier and was long gone from central bank possession.
But pursuing these issues critically would constitute journalism, which isn’t permitted in mainstream financial news organizations in regard to gold. The report here is significant mainly for indicating the message central banks want conveyed to the markets, and as always the Financial Times is a most reliable messenger.
* * *
Central Banks Flip to Gold Sales After Record Rally
By Henry Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
Central banks became net sellers of gold in August for the first time in a year and a half, in the latest indication that demand for the metal is slowing following a record-setting rally.
Global central banks sold a net 12.3 tonnes of gold over the month, according to estimates published on Wednesday by the World Gold Council, an industry-backed body. The shift came just as the precious metal reached a record high above $2,070 a troy ounce in early August. It has since fallen more than 8 per cent to $1,890 per ounce.
The latest data reflect the pullback of some major buyers as countries free up resources to deal with the coronavirus crisis.
“All central banks around the world are facing a lot of pressure for liquidity,” said Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis in Paris. “Now is not the time to hoard gold. The hospitals need the money,” he said.
Uzbekistan led the sales, exporting $5.8 billion worth of gold in the first eight months of the year, according to government statistics. …
… For the remainder of the report:
www.ft.com/content/09b0a30f-2997-4e8a-92bf-f9eb61952b92
* * *
Join GATA here:
New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 14-17, 2020
neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NOICChrisPow…
* * *
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine
Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.
Here’s what the bottles look like:
www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg
Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:
www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg
GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?
To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.
* * *
Support GATA by purchasing
Stuart Englert’s “Rigged”
“Rigged” is a concise explanation of government’s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA’s work exposing it. Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA. Buy a copy for $14.99 through Amazon —
www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…
— or for an additional $3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.
* * *
Help keep GATA going:
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
www.gata.org
To contribute to GATA, please visit:
www.gata.org/node/16


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--CDC Trying to Cancel Thanksgiving, Christmas, Trick-or-Treating. . . and more

The CDC issued its guidelines for Thanksgiving , noting that staying home is the best way to protect yourself and @ @ @ @ @ CDC suggests families partake in “ virtual dinners.
” If you do travel , the @ @ @ @ @ know you are at increased risk of getting and spreading the coronavirus .

The CDC issued its guidelines for Thanksgiving, noting that staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.
The CDC suggests families partake in “virtual dinners.” If you do travel, the CDC said you need to know you are at increased risk of getting and spreading the coronavirus.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he could work with Joe Biden and the Democrats over a sha

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he could work with Joe Biden and the Democrats over a shared embrace of Soviet ideology & Marxism

REPORT : # Russian President # VladimirPutin announced he could work with @ JoeBiden in a new administration , citing @ @ @ @ @ @ theDemocrats over a shared embrace of # Soviet ideology & # Marxism .
t.co/zGIDz4P3xK

REPORT: #Russian President #VladimirPutin announced he could work with @JoeBiden in a new administration, citing common ground he shared with @theDemocrats over a shared embrace of #Soviet ideology & #Marxism. t.co/zGIDz4P3xK
— John Basham 🇺🇲 (@JohnBasham) October 7, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Thousands of shredded Trump ballots addressed and not mailed out.

Thousands of shredded Trump ballots addressed and not mailed out .
# StopTheSteal # MailInBallots pic.twitter.com/IcS7HITvv9 Colorado sued for having @ @ @ @ @ lawsuit has been filed in federal court against the state of Colorado for having more @ @ @ @ @ many of its counties .
The state shifted abruptly from a Republican to a Democratic @ @ @ @ @ ago when several billionaires donated heavily to strategic state House and Senate races .
Now @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t add up .
According to Judicial Watch , which sued state Secretary @ @ @ @ @ a Democrat , a 2019 study showed 40 of Colorado ’ s 64 counties had @ @ @ @ @ % of the eligible citizens .

Thousands of shredded Trump ballots addressed and not mailed out. #StopTheSteal #MailInBallots pic.twitter.com/IcS7HITvv9
Colorado sued for having more voters than people
A lawsuit has been filed in federal court against the state of Colorado for having more voters than voting-age people in many of its counties.
The state shifted abruptly from a Republican to a Democratic majority more than a decade ago when several billionaires donated heavily to strategic state House and Senate races.
Now, however, its numbers don’t add up.
According to Judicial Watch, which sued state Secretary of State Jena Griswold, a Democrat, a 2019 study showed 40 of Colorado’s 64 counties had voter registration rates exceeding 100% of the eligible citizens.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Chris Vermeulen: Market Turmoil To Continue

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd .
He @ @ @ @ @ analyst , trader , and is the author of the book : 7 Steps to @ @ @ @

Financial Survival Network, Released on 10/8/20
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Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses the Fed’s latest money-printing schemes

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC , a research and analytics firm .
She @ @ @ @ @ advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas .
Danielle left @ @ @ @ @ found Money Strong , LLC , an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic @ @ @ @ @ of Fed Up : An Insider ’ s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is @ @ @ @ @ Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson , Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit @ @ @ @ @ fixed income and the public and private equity markets .
Danielle earned her BBA as @ @ @ @ @ at the University of Texas at San Antonio .
She holds an MBA in Finance @ @ @ @ @ University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University .

RT, Released on 10/7/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. She spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong, LLC, an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic newsletter She is the author of Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit Suisse, where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets. Danielle earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One

From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One

Economists who expected a quick recovery from this recession have been revising their forecasts .
Mounting evidence suggests the May/June bounce was just that—a bounce , and not a return to prior trends .
I ’ ve been following Homebase , a payroll/HR data provider for small businesses , whose data gives us high-frequency and nearly real-time information .
This is from their September report : You can see a sharp decline during the initial coronavirus lockdown period and then improvement as many US states reopened .
But since then , activity has flatlined except for some holiday dips .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ most in places with the deepest and longest-lasting lockdowns , like New York and California .
But even the best metro areas show a 5 % to 10 % drop , with many down 20 % or more .
This points to a much longer recession than bulls think .
The official unemployment rate is now 7.9 % but is certainly understated .
Even 10 % is likely optimistic .
There are 25 million+ people who are still getting some type of unemployment claims and job postings are down .
From the Daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DiMartino Booth ) : Worse , even the small businesses that are hanging on are in major distress .
A Lending Tree survey shows 43 % have seen revenue drop by half or more , and 6 % have already dissolved .
We have never seen anything like this in history , with a possible exception ( percentage-wise ) during the Great Depression .
This is not the material from which V-shaped recoveries are created .
Worse , this recession has been inordinately destructive for the bottom 25 % of income earners .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Congress pass some type of Phase IV relief bill .
Consumer spending has held up due to the initial pandemic relief .
Now many live on savings , if they have any .
We are getting ready to fall off an economic cliff without more relief .
Obviously , much depends on how much the coronavirus case load increases/decreases over the winter , and whether a working vaccine can be approved and distributed .
The logistics will take enormous coordination .
It is doable but not guaranteed .
What if 2021 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , takes the economy even deeper into recession ?
Mind you , I ’ m not predicting that , but it is a significant possibility that would need far more fiscal support than even the $ 2T+ Phase IV bill Democrats just passed in Congress .
And because lower growth will mean lower tax revenue , we will add trillions more to the debt .
We can easily see another $ 3 trillion worth of debt in 2021 .
Easily .
Even if we see an effective vaccine widely distributed by spring to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the best case for GDP in the coming decade .
If we have another recession , the national debt will rise to $ 60 trillion by 2030 .
That ’ s just the nature of recessions .
I think we will probably see tax increases and maybe a major restructuring of the tax code , especially when we get to The Great Reset .
We will be open to new innovation at that point , which may prove helpful in the long run .
Some kind of consumption tax ( like the VAT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world ) , paired with an income tax only on high earners , would be far less economically distorting than the current mishmash .
The transition will be disruptive at best , and the politicos could easily turn it into a fiasco .
But a $ 60 trillion debt could force us to take actions that we would otherwise not consider .
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history .
And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now .
@ @ @ @

by John Mauldin
Economists who expected a quick recovery from this recession have been revising their forecasts. Mounting evidence suggests the May/June bounce was just that—a bounce, and not a return to prior trends.
I’ve been following Homebase, a payroll/HR data provider for small businesses, whose data gives us high-frequency and nearly real-time information. This is from their September report:
You can see a sharp decline during the initial coronavirus lockdown period and then improvement as many US states reopened.
But since then, activity has flatlined except for some holiday dips.
There’s a great deal of local variation…
Not surprisingly, work hours dropped the most in places with the deepest and longest-lasting lockdowns, like New York and California. But even the best metro areas show a 5% to 10% drop, with many down 20% or more.
This points to a much longer recession than bulls think.
The official unemployment rate is now 7.9% but is certainly understated. Even 10% is likely optimistic.
There are 25 million+ people who are still getting some type of unemployment claims and job postings are down.
From the Daily Feather (courtesy of my friend Danielle DiMartino Booth):
Source: Quill Intelligence
Worse, even the small businesses that are hanging on are in major distress. A Lending Tree survey shows 43% have seen revenue drop by half or more, and 6% have already dissolved.
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We have never seen anything like this in history, with a possible exception (percentage-wise) during the Great Depression. This is not the material from which V-shaped recoveries are created.
Worse, this recession has been inordinately destructive for the bottom 25% of income earners.
That is why it is absolutely critical that Congress pass some type of Phase IV relief bill. Consumer spending has held up due to the initial pandemic relief. Now many live on savings, if they have any. We are getting ready to fall off an economic cliff without more relief.
Obviously, much depends on how much the coronavirus case load increases/decreases over the winter, and whether a working vaccine can be approved and distributed. The logistics will take enormous coordination. It is doable but not guaranteed.
What if 2021, instead of being the start of recovery, takes the economy even deeper into recession? Mind you, I’m not predicting that, but it is a significant possibility that would need far more fiscal support than even the $2T+ Phase IV bill Democrats just passed in Congress. And because lower growth will mean lower tax revenue, we will add trillions more to the debt.
We can easily see another $3 trillion worth of debt in 2021. Easily.
Even if we see an effective vaccine widely distributed by spring to mid-2021, I think continued stagnation is the best case for GDP in the coming decade.
If we have another recession, the national debt will rise to $60 trillion by 2030. That’s just the nature of recessions.
I think we will probably see tax increases and maybe a major restructuring of the tax code, especially when we get to The Great Reset.
We will be open to new innovation at that point, which may prove helpful in the long run. Some kind of consumption tax (like the VAT used in almost every other country in the world), paired with an income tax only on high earners, would be far less economically distorting than the current mishmash.
The transition will be disruptive at best, and the politicos could easily turn it into a fiasco. But a $60 trillion debt could force us to take actions that we would otherwise not consider.
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--UK air force door to door to help Covid19 testing “just here for the support” until it becomes force

This is disgraceful .
The military on the streets in England in peacetime .
Are we in Northern Ireland ?
@ @ @ @ @ these vipers , maybe we need to review some of the methods and tactics adopted @ @ @ @ @ little disturbance at the Queens Hotel in Brighton , Earl Mountbatten ’ s small boating @ @ @ @ @ this pandemic is not affecting them .
They ’ re carrying on their lives as @ @ @ @ @ with wine , drinking cups of tea , BoJo ’ s misses taking a holiday @ @ @ @ @ These people are not feeling the heat , it ’ s about time this changed @ @ @ @ @ whole new meaning to the Postcode Lottery… .

This is disgraceful. The military on the streets in England in peacetime.
Are we in Northern Ireland? The IRA successfully fought off these vipers, maybe we need to review some of the methods and tactics adopted by the IRA. The little disturbance at the Queens Hotel in Brighton, Earl Mountbatten’s small boating accident etc etc
Currently, this pandemic is not affecting them. They’re carrying on their lives as per normal, having lunch with wine, drinking cups of tea, BoJo’s misses taking a holiday with the new baby. These people are not feeling the heat, it’s about time this changed.
Meanwhile in Ireland… “Papers please”
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And in Birmingham…
Talk about giving a whole new meaning to the Postcode Lottery….
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--TRUMP PULLED OUT of NEXT (virtual) DEBATE!

President Donald Trump on Thursday pulled out of the next presidential debate , saying he won ’ t “ waste his time ” on it after the Commission on Presidential Debates announced it would take place virtually to protect “ the health and safety of all involved.
” Trump is still being treated for Covid-19 .
His campaign said it would hold a rally instead , and accused the commission of changing the format to benefit former Vice President Joe Biden .
The debate is still set to take place in the form of a town hall , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be invited to participate remotely .
Moderator Steve Scully of C-SPAN is to be at the venue that was slated to host the debate , the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami , next Thursday , Oct. 15 .
In an interview on the Fox Business Network on Thursday morning , Trump said the new debate format is “ not acceptable to us.
” “ I ’ m not going to waste my time on a virtual debate , ” Trump said , adding that he doesn ’ t like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a moderator could cut him off at any time .

President Donald Trump on Thursday pulled out of the next presidential debate, saying he won’t “waste his time” on it after the Commission on Presidential Debates announced it would take place virtually to protect “the health and safety of all involved.”
Trump is still being treated for Covid-19. His campaign said it would hold a rally instead, and accused the commission of changing the format to benefit former Vice President Joe Biden.
The debate is still set to take place in the form of a town hall, but the commission said that Trump and Biden would be invited to participate remotely. Moderator Steve Scully of C-SPAN is to be at the venue that was slated to host the debate, the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, next Thursday, Oct. 15.
In an interview on the Fox Business Network on Thursday morning, Trump said the new debate format is “not acceptable to us.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“I’m not going to waste my time on a virtual debate,” Trump said, adding that he doesn’t like the idea of a virtual debate because a moderator could cut him off at any time.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/second-presidential-debate-will-be-virtual-after-trump-s-covid-n1242596
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind

Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind

We have plenty of evidence that US debt will balloon to $ 50 trillion by 2030 , maybe more .
Many smart people conclude that , in the meantime , the federal debt isn ’ t a problem .
Looking at the numbers as a percent of GDP—and considering the CBO long-term forecasts out to 2050—Sam Rines , whom I greatly respect , writes this : “ In its latest round of projections , by far the most intriguing portion of the analysis related to the dynamics around the US federal debt load .
The US debt load has increased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the ability to service the US debt load is actually improving .
“ Measured by interest payments on the debt relative to GDP , the US ’ s fiscal situation is set to improve for the better part of the next decade .
In fact , the figure is set to hit 1.1 % in 2024 .
That is the lowest level of interest payments to GDP since at least the early 1960s .
“ But that is where the projections become a bit less sanguine .
Instead of going lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin to rise , and continue to do so until the end of the projections in 2050 .
“ At 8.1 % , the CBO is projecting interest payments on debt will grow to be more burdensome than Social Security as a percent of GDP .
That is quite the assertion .
“ But that is not the entirety of the story .
There are a few assumptions made by the CBO that are rather suspect.
” “ Net Interest ” is a significant and growing slice of federal spending .
When your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even tiny interest rate differences matter .
The obvious reason for increasing interest payments is a projection of rising borrowing costs .
And that is where the CBO ’ s analysis begins to show a few potential holes .
Sam thinks the federal debt will become a bigger problem when the economy improves and interest rates rise .
I would argue much of that rise is already built into CBO ’ s high-side rate projections .
Based on CBO ’ s past record , their forecast for 3 % ten-year yields in 2029 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been well below that level for most of the last decade .
What would make rates rise that much ?
The only answer is some combination of a stronger economy and higher inflation .
The Fed recently revised its policy framework to “ let ” inflation run higher for longer .
That ’ s the same Fed that ’ s targeted 2 % inflation for years now without success , at least on its own preferred benchmark .
There is good reason for this .
The kind of broad inflation the Fed says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy outstrips productive capacity for key goods and services .
Without that , general price levels simply can ’ t rise .
Certain prices ( rent and healthcare , for example ) can rise enough to cause significant discomfort , but price weakness elsewhere keeps it from affecting the benchmarks too much .
Rising debt actively suppresses economic growth .
Debt service prevents everyone ( government , businesses , and households ) from investing enough capital to generate long-term growth .
This is why each new dollar of debt is producing less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fund consumption instead of production .
It gets worse .
The Fed thinks it can encourage growth by keeping interest rates low .
But in fact , its “ forward guidance ” ( pledging low rates long into the future ) gives no one any reason to act now .
With no fear of rising rates as motivation , you might as well wait .
Add our aging population and other demographic challenges , and there ’ s no reason to expect substantially higher GDP growth by 2030 .
Some sectors will prosper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in recent years .
But others will suffer , leaving the macro growth outlook no better than it has been .
Even the CBO ’ s rosy scenarios show the economy spending the next two years digging out of the 2020 hole , then returning to the same sluggish growth as almost every year since 2005 .
But if that ’ s what happens , we should be grateful .
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history .
And most investors are completely unaware @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Learn more here .

by John Mauldin
We have plenty of evidence that US debt will balloon to $50 trillion by 2030, maybe more. Many smart people conclude that, in the meantime, the federal debt isn’t a problem.
Looking at the numbers as a percent of GDP—and considering the CBO long-term forecasts out to 2050—Sam Rines, whom I greatly respect, writes this:
“In its latest round of projections, by far the most intriguing portion of the analysis related to the dynamics around the US federal debt load. The US debt load has increased dramatically due to the response to COVID, but the ability to service the US debt load is actually improving.
“Measured by interest payments on the debt relative to GDP, the US’s fiscal situation is set to improve for the better part of the next decade. In fact, the figure is set to hit 1.1% in 2024. That is the lowest level of interest payments to GDP since at least the early 1960s.
“But that is where the projections become a bit less sanguine. Instead of going lower and remaining lower, interest payments then begin to rise, and continue to do so until the end of the projections in 2050.
“At 8.1%, the CBO is projecting interest payments on debt will grow to be more burdensome than Social Security as a percent of GDP. That is quite the assertion.
“But that is not the entirety of the story. There are a few assumptions made by the CBO that are rather suspect.”
“Net Interest” is a significant and growing slice of federal spending. When your debt balance is measured in trillions, even tiny interest rate differences matter.
The obvious reason for increasing interest payments is a projection of rising borrowing costs. And that is where the CBO’s analysis begins to show a few potential holes.
Sam thinks the federal debt will become a bigger problem when the economy improves and interest rates rise. I would argue much of that rise is already built into CBO’s high-side rate projections.
But there’s another wrinkle …
Based on CBO’s past record, their forecast for 3% ten-year yields in 2029 looks dubious to me. It has been well below that level for most of the last decade.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What would make rates rise that much? The only answer is some combination of a stronger economy and higher inflation.
The Fed recently revised its policy framework to “let” inflation run higher for longer. That’s the same Fed that’s targeted 2% inflation for years now without success, at least on its own preferred benchmark. There is good reason for this.
The kind of broad inflation the Fed says it wants can’t happen unless the economy outstrips productive capacity for key goods and services.
Without that, general price levels simply can’t rise. Certain prices (rent and healthcare, for example) can rise enough to cause significant discomfort, but price weakness elsewhere keeps it from affecting the benchmarks too much.
Rising debt actively suppresses economic growth. Debt service prevents everyone (government, businesses, and households) from investing enough capital to generate long-term growth. This is why each new dollar of debt is producing less additional GDP.
We are borrowing to fund consumption instead of production.
It gets worse. The Fed thinks it can encourage growth by keeping interest rates low. But in fact, its “forward guidance” (pledging low rates long into the future) gives no one any reason to act now.
With no fear of rising rates as motivation, you might as well wait. Add our aging population and other demographic challenges, and there’s no reason to expect substantially higher GDP growth by 2030.
Some sectors will prosper, of course, as technology has in recent years. But others will suffer, leaving the macro growth outlook no better than it has been.
Even the CBO’s rosy scenarios show the economy spending the next two years digging out of the 2020 hole, then returning to the same sluggish growth as almost every year since 2005.
But if that’s what happens, we should be grateful.
I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Coup Exposed: Pelosi to introduce legislation to create an independent commission to invoke the 25th

They must be way down in their internal polling .
Absolute desperation .
This is how civil war starts .
@ @ @ @ @ She now says she will use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump

by Thunderga
They must be way down in their internal polling. Absolute desperation.
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This is how civil war starts.
Nancy Pelosi is insane. She now says she will use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump


The FLY returns!

Remember the pesky fly that wouldn ’ t leave Obama alone during this nomination speech ?
And this speech on @ @ @ @ @ this interview : Well , THE FLY is back !
But this time , it @ @ @ @ @ What does this mean ?
We ’ ve seen this before…

Remember the pesky fly that wouldn’t leave Obama alone during this nomination speech?
And this speech on health care:
And during this interview:
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Well, THE FLY is back! But this time, it’s after Pence:
What does this mean? We’ve seen this before…
h/t Elegant Walnut


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Dave Kranzler: The Price Of Gold When The Dollar Index Hits 70

There ’ s been a lot of media/Wall St/blog noise about the relative strength or weakness with the U.S. dollar .
With respect to gold , the daily vicissitudes of the gold price are associated with the daily price variations of the dollar index .
This is incorrect analysis .
To be sure , over longer periods of time , there will be a high inverse correlation between the gold price and the dollar index .
But prior to the run-up over $ 1900 in the current period , the last time the gold price was trading above $ 1900 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time the dollar index was trading in the 70 ’ s .
The investment value of gold – My thesis for devoting the last 20 years to researching , analyzing , trading and investing in gold has been twofold .
First and foremost to protect my savings from the ravages of eventual catastrophic policies implemented by the Federal Reserve and the Government .
But secondarily , both gold and silver are extraordinarily undervalued relative to the quantity of fiat currency AND fiat currency derived debt circulating globally .
As such , both gold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The graphic above compares the price path of gold and the USDX over the last 12 months .
Without question there ’ s an inverse correlation – over an extended period of time .
But from mid-March thru June , gold and the dollar traded almost perfectly in tandem .
Since June , gold has risen as much as $ 400 while the dollar index in the same time is only 300 basis points lower .
In fact , between their respective lows in March and now , gold has soared 31.7 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This latter occurrence is what I call “ the investment value of gold.
” Gold ( and silver ) functions both as a wealth preservation asset and a wealth enhancement vehicle .
Both metals are singularly unique with these attributes .
Let ’ s face it .
The U.S. technically is insolvent .
The only factor preventing collapse , for now , is the willingness of our trade counterparties to continue accepting the dollar for trade settlement .
With the continued deterioration in the economic , financial and fiscal condition of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money printing by the Fed , the global acceptance of the dollar will diminish more than it already has over the last 20 years .
At some point the dollar index will quickly revisit the 70 level it tested in 2008 .
When that event occurs I expect the gold price to be at least double its current level and silver to be pushing $ 100 ( gold/silver ratio below 40 from its current 80 ) .
Buying physical gold and silver – not GLD or SLV – should be your first priority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the dollar .
But mining stocks offer the potential wealth enhancement as well “ optionality ” upside to the prices of gold and silver .
If you would like some ideas for investing in mining stocks , take a look at my Mining Stock Journal .

by investmentresearchdynamics
There’s been a lot of media/Wall St/blog noise about the relative strength or weakness with the U.S. dollar. With respect to gold, the daily vicissitudes of the gold price are associated with the daily price variations of the dollar index. This is incorrect analysis.
To be sure, over longer periods of time, there will be a high inverse correlation between the gold price and the dollar index. But prior to the run-up over $1900 in the current period, the last time the gold price was trading above $1900 was in September 2011. At the time the dollar index was trading in the 70’s.
The investment value of gold – My thesis for devoting the last 20 years to researching, analyzing, trading and investing in gold has been twofold. First and foremost to protect my savings from the ravages of eventual catastrophic policies implemented by the Federal Reserve and the Government. But secondarily, both gold and silver are extraordinarily undervalued relative to the quantity of fiat currency AND fiat currency derived debt circulating globally. As such, both gold and silver have extraordinary investment value.
The graphic above compares the price path of gold and the USDX over the last 12 months. Without question there’s an inverse correlation – over an extended period of time. But from mid-March thru June, gold and the dollar traded almost perfectly in tandem. Since June, gold has risen as much as $400 while the dollar index in the same time is only 300 basis points lower.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In fact, between their respective lows in March and now, gold has soared 31.7% while the dollar index is largely flat.
This latter occurrence is what I call “the investment value of gold.” Gold (and silver) functions both as a wealth preservation asset and a wealth enhancement vehicle. Both metals are singularly unique with these attributes.
Let’s face it. The U.S. technically is insolvent. The only factor preventing collapse, for now, is the willingness of our trade counterparties to continue accepting the dollar for trade settlement. With the continued deterioration in the economic, financial and fiscal condition of the United States and the accompanying escalation in money printing by the Fed, the global acceptance of the dollar will diminish more than it already has over the last 20 years.
At some point the dollar index will quickly revisit the 70 level it tested in 2008. When that event occurs I expect the gold price to be at least double its current level and silver to be pushing $100 (gold/silver ratio below 40 from its current 80).
Buying physical gold and silver – not GLD or SLV – should be your first priority in seeking shelter from the eventual fate of the dollar. But mining stocks offer the potential wealth enhancement as well “optionality” upside to the prices of gold and silver. If you would like some ideas for investing in mining stocks, take a look at my Mining Stock Journal.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--95% of donations from Silicon Valley Big Tech employees have gone to Joe Biden

( Natural News ) Analysis of campaign donations by Wired reveals that donors affiliated with the six biggest technology companies in American have donated to Joe Biden 95 % of the time .
The analysis queried campaign donations made by self-identifying employees of Alphabet , Amazon , Apple , Facebook , Microsoft , and Oracle .
The unipolar distribution of donations goes to show that employees associated with the most powerful corporations in American life are wholly in support of Joe Biden .
The Big Tech employees have donated 20 times more money to Joe Biden than they have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Biden adding up to almost $ 4,800,000 and just $ 240,000 for Trump .
Alphabet , Microsoft , Amazon , Facebook , and Apple account for five of the seven largest donors to the Biden campaign , suggesting the entities are wholly linked together in their support of Biden .
Individual donors can give even more money to political PAC groups than they can to political campaigns , which are limited in the donation amounts they can receive from sole contributors by federal election law .
The Joe Biden campaign is considerably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enabled to do so by the support of major billionaires who staunchly oppose President Trump .
The glut of donations will largely ensure that Biden shields big tech monopolies such as Facebook and Google from regulation and oversight if he ’ s elected President , allowing them to continue censoring and deplatforming conservatives and nationalists .
Increasingly , the Democratic Party and American Left are wedded to the most wealthy and powerful oligarchs in American society , an implication that bodes poorly for the prospects of middle and working-class Americans who seek to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It may become an inevitability that the Republican Party realigns to fight for everyday Americans against the so-called ‘ Masters of the Universe .
’

(Natural News) Analysis of campaign donations by Wired reveals that donors affiliated with the six biggest technology companies in American have donated to Joe Biden 95% of the time. The analysis queried campaign donations made by self-identifying employees of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Oracle.
(Article by Richard Moorhead republished from BigLeaguePolitics.com)
The unipolar distribution of donations goes to show that employees associated with the most powerful corporations in American life are wholly in support of Joe Biden.
The Big Tech employees have donated 20 times more money to Joe Biden than they have to Donald Trump, with listed campaign donations for Biden adding up to almost $4,800,000 and just $240,000 for Trump. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple account for five of the seven largest donors to the Biden campaign, suggesting the entities are wholly linked together in their support of Biden.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Individual donors can give even more money to political PAC groups than they can to political campaigns, which are limited in the donation amounts they can receive from sole contributors by federal election law. The Joe Biden campaign is considerably outspending the President’s, largely enabled to do so by the support of major billionaires who staunchly oppose President Trump.
The glut of donations will largely ensure that Biden shields big tech monopolies such as Facebook and Google from regulation and oversight if he’s elected President, allowing them to continue censoring and deplatforming conservatives and nationalists.
Increasingly, the Democratic Party and American Left are wedded to the most wealthy and powerful oligarchs in American society, an implication that bodes poorly for the prospects of middle and working-class Americans who seek to advance their interests within the party. It may become an inevitability that the Republican Party realigns to fight for everyday Americans against the so-called ‘Masters of the Universe.’
Read more at: BigLeaguePolitics.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--China simulates airstrike on America, threatens to wipe out Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen

( Natural News ) Tensions are escalating between the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) and the United States .
In 2020 , China has repeatedly invaded the airspace of Taiwan , a US ally .
In September , more than a dozen Chinese fighter jets invaded Taiwanese airspace as Taiwan moved forward with the reception of Keith Krach , as Undersecretary of State .
The breach of Taiwan ’ s airspace was a historic move ; China crossed into the Taiwan Strait , a boundary line that both Taiwan and China have largely observed for decades .
China ramps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and threaten the US The CCP is now threatening Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen .
In a state media editorial published at Global Times , the CCP wrote that Tsai Ing-wen would be “ wiped out ” if she moved against Chinese sovereignty and warned that the US is “ playing with fire ” for daring to support Taiwan .
The CCP editorial warned the US to never send their Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense to Taiwan , or else China would have no choice but to “ respond with force.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the CCP has repeatedly warned they do not want pro-independence sentiment spreading on the island .
To project dominance over the region , China is currently broadcasting ominous threats toward the United States and featuring militant displays that are intended to provoke war .
The CCP has even broadcast propaganda footage that simulates an airstrike on American territory at the Andersen Air Force Base in Guam .
The CCP is appealing to their citizenry to prepare for kinetic combat with Taiwan and the United States , in a desperate attempt to manipulate Taiwan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump Administration has been pushing back against Chinese aggression all year , sanctioning human rights abusers , re-negotiating trade deals that ripped Americans off for years , while establishing partnerships with allies in the Indo-Pacific .
The Trump Administration shut down the Chinese consulate in Houston to protect intellectual property and banned Chinese espionage through the TikTok and WeChat apps .
The Trump Administration also wants to hold China accountable for their gain-of-function virus research in Wuhan , that was covered up to cause a global pandemic .
China will bully America and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the US , China ’ s leader , Xi Jinping , has bombastically ramped up the promotion of military propaganda throughout the communist country .
Xi Jinping not only approved a military breach of Taiwan ’ s airspace , but he has also ramped up a series of military drills in recent weeks , including the test-firing of ballistic missiles .
“ I don ’ t think it ’ s just bluster , and I don ’ t think it ’ s just about venting anger , ” said Bonnie S. Glaser @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington , who is an expert on the relationship between Taiwan and China .
“ I think there is growing pressure — and that Xi Jinping finds that it ’ s useful to display that pressure.
” China currently has a stranglehold on the Democratic Party of the United States .
The Chinese State Media targets the Trump Administration using the same talking points used by presidential nominee , Joe Biden .
Tied down by corrupt family business deals with China , Biden has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competition ” for the United States .
If Biden is elected , China would be well on their way to bully Americans and the Taiwanese through crooked trade deals , scientific fraud , systemic manipulation of US institutions , support of domestic terror groups like Antifa , espionage , and overt forms of military intimidation .
Stay up-to-date with the CCP ’ s war against the US at NationalSecurity.News .

by: Lance D Johnson
(Natural News) Tensions are escalating between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the United States. In 2020, China has repeatedly invaded the airspace of Taiwan, a US ally. In September, more than a dozen Chinese fighter jets invaded Taiwanese airspace as Taiwan moved forward with the reception of Keith Krach, as Undersecretary of State. The breach of Taiwan’s airspace was a historic move; China crossed into the Taiwan Strait, a boundary line that both Taiwan and China have largely observed for decades.
China ramps up its militarist displays to bully Taiwan and threaten the US
The CCP is now threatening Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen. In a state media editorial published at Global Times, the CCP wrote that Tsai Ing-wen would be “wiped out” if she moved against Chinese sovereignty and warned that the US is “playing with fire” for daring to support Taiwan. The CCP editorial warned the US to never send their Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense to Taiwan, or else China would have no choice but to “respond with force.” The US supports an independent Taiwan and the CCP has repeatedly warned they do not want pro-independence sentiment spreading on the island.
To project dominance over the region, China is currently broadcasting ominous threats toward the United States and featuring militant displays that are intended to provoke war. The CCP has even broadcast propaganda footage that simulates an airstrike on American territory at the Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. The CCP is appealing to their citizenry to prepare for kinetic combat with Taiwan and the United States, in a desperate attempt to manipulate Taiwan into submission with communist ways.
The Trump Administration has been pushing back against Chinese aggression all year, sanctioning human rights abusers, re-negotiating trade deals that ripped Americans off for years, while establishing partnerships with allies in the Indo-Pacific. The Trump Administration shut down the Chinese consulate in Houston to protect intellectual property and banned Chinese espionage through the TikTok and WeChat apps. The Trump Administration also wants to hold China accountable for their gain-of-function virus research in Wuhan, that was covered up to cause a global pandemic.
China will bully America and Taiwan under a Biden presidency
Losing ground to the US, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has bombastically ramped up the promotion of military propaganda throughout the communist country. Xi Jinping not only approved a military breach of Taiwan’s airspace, but he has also ramped up a series of military drills in recent weeks, including the test-firing of ballistic missiles.
“I don’t think it’s just bluster, and I don’t think it’s just about venting anger,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who is an expert on the relationship between Taiwan and China. “I think there is growing pressure — and that Xi Jinping finds that it’s useful to display that pressure.”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
China currently has a stranglehold on the Democratic Party of the United States. The Chinese State Media targets the Trump Administration using the same talking points used by presidential nominee, Joe Biden. Tied down by corrupt family business deals with China, Biden has repeatedly said that China is “not competition” for the United States. If Biden is elected, China would be well on their way to bully Americans and the Taiwanese through crooked trade deals, scientific fraud, systemic manipulation of US institutions, support of domestic terror groups like Antifa, espionage, and overt forms of military intimidation.
Stay up-to-date with the CCP’s war against the US at NationalSecurity.News.
Sources include:
FreeBeacon.com
NYTimes.com
NaturalNews.com
NationalSecurity.news


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Changing Jobs Pays Off

Changing Jobs Pays Off

Changing Jobs Every Few Years Pays Off I , like many of you , am always looking to increase my @ @ @ @ @ as I can to one day become financially independent .
Every 2-2.5 years I search @ @ @ @ @ the results .
This time I was able to find a company that besides their @ @ @ @ @ at 15 % ) , they also provide managers with $ 8000 in restricted stock @ @ @ @ @ every year .
I think I ’ ll be sticking with these guys for a @ @ @

Changing Jobs Every Few Years Pays Off
I, like many of you, am always looking to increase my income and contribute as much as I can to one day become financially independent. Every 2-2.5 years I search the market and pleased with the results. This time I was able to find a company that besides their share purchase program (matched at 15%), they also provide managers with $8000 in restricted stock (+/- Price Movement) every year. I think I’ll be sticking with these guys for a little while.
2010 to 2015: Avg $40K-50K Salary
2015 to 2016: 38% Wage Increase
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2016 to 2018: 29% Wage Increase
2018 to 2020: 34% Wage Increase
Latest and previous offers.
h/t throwaway071317


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--Very long AMD analysis inside. Including 10-K’s and Q’s and graphs

ABSTRACT All , I will focus here on technical and fundamental analysis derived from AMD ’ s 10K ’ s and 10Q ’ s .
The most recent 10K is not yet available since the year is not over .
I will link my previous post about AMD which covers a good amount of the background here .
Overall , I tried to make this as easy to read as possible without going into too much detail about things so you do not get bored .
10K/10Q ANALYSIS Alright let ’ s go over the company and how it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll give you a hint .
It ’ s really good .
All data came from SEC EDGAR For all of the following information , if you have critiques or different ways you view this information please comment or PM me so I can hear what you have to say .
To give context , this graph contextualizes the returns of common stock comparing two indices compared to AMD .
To summarize , in a 5-year period , AMD has outperformed the S & P 500 index by a factor of 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 7.3 .
AMD had its first profitable year in a series of years in 2018 .
The previous years were categorized by Lisa Su heavily investing in new products , trimming fat , and expanding previous profitable divisions .
In 2015 , AMD had net loss of 660 million dollars .
In 2016 , 498 million loss .
In 2017 , 33 million loss .
In 2018 , 337 million income and 341 million income in 2019 .
At the same times , the net revenue increased for AMD from years 2015-2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 , earnings per share was $ -.84 .
It stayed negative for two years after .
Actually , this is not a bad thing in the short term .
Companies that need clean up like AMD did in 2012 generally have negative earnings due to such heavy investment to revitalize the company .
– In 2018 and 2019 , earnings increased to .34 and .31 respectively .
It is important to note that in 2015 , AMD implemented its restructuring plan that would cause much of the data below and above this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 : This year signified the launch of the 7nm products , 3rd gen Ryzen ’ s , Zen 2 ’ s , new Threadripper ’ s , and new notebooks .
2 : Introduction of the 2nd Gen AMD EPYC family of processors that reduced cost of ownership by 50 % .
3 : Net revenue increased from 6.5 billion to 6.7 billion a 4 % increase while gross margin increased by 5 % .
Operating income increased by 180 million and Cash/cash and marketable securities increased to 1.5 billion .
4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion dollars compared to 2018 due to large cash on hand and refinancing previous debts .
Computing and Graphics= desktop and notebook processors and chipsets , discrete and integrated graphics processing units ( GPU ’ s ) , data center and professional GPU ’ s and development services .
Enterprise , Embedded , and Semi-Custom= primarily server and embedded processors , semi-custom System-on-Chip products , development services and technology for game consoles .
In 2019 , Computing and Graphics ( Hereby known as C & G ) increased by over 14 % due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4 % increase in shipments due to demand .
These factors were driven by strong demand of Ryzen processors .
A key takeaway here , a 14 % increase due to product reception is absolutely massive .
IN 2020 , ENTIRE NEW SERIES OF CPU ’ S AND GPU ’ S ARE COMING WITH PROMISING LEAKS .
CURRENT 2020= For the 6 months ending June 27 , 2020 , net revenue was at 3.7 billion .
Before release of the major products being announced this month .
MAYBE you can start to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CONDITION Having debt is actually a good thing .
It allows businesses to finance cheaper than equity , debt can be deducted for taxes , and it prevents takeovers .
Having too much to the point where you can not pay back obligations is a bad thing .
– AMD decreased 2019 debt by a billion dollars .
You read that correct Operating cash flow increased by 460 million .
Investing cash flow slightly decreased by 21 million Financing activities increased by 15 million to 43 million .
Just something that I like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposure to foreign currency exchange rate risk by entering foreign currency forward contracts .
Nothing huge here other than they have yearly losses for this to hedge their exposure .
When comparing their cash flows from previous years , it looks like a completely different company .
Their Financial Condition is a company that can pay current debts with a high cash reserve , good amount of debt , foreign market security , and attainable obligations .
I chose not to go over notes in Term Debt because I don ’ t think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -But essentially , AMD has senior and convertible notes maturing in 2022 and 2026 totaling 1.3 billion .
For gross profit , it has increased from 1.78 billion in 2017 to 2.44 billion in 2018 and 2.87 billion in 2019 .
Their investment into Research and Development has stayed a large part of their cash flows at 1.5 billion in 2019 .
LETS TALK 2020 AND WHY ITS GOING TO BE INSANE HERE ON OUT All of what is detailed below is from the most recent 10-Q for data available up until June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revenue increase for the Six Months Ended of almost a billion dollars .
In turn , we see a proportional cost of sales increase of 400 million .
Profit increased by 500 million as well when compared to the previous year .
In a non-spectacular year for AMD compared to 2019 so far , the company is destroying its previous self .
-AMD announcements for new GPU ’ s and CPU ’ s are coming this month and I expect them to be released shortly after .
I highly recommend you look through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technical terms about AMD how its systems work in the comments .
-EPS for 2020 and 2019 Six Months Ended is .27 and .05 respectively .
A .
$ 22 change so far .
-Net income is up from 51 million to 319 million .
-Cash and Cash equivalents is upon from 1,466 billion to 1,775 billion when compared to December 2019 .
SO LETS SUMMARIZE BEFORE WE CONTINUE -AMD is a company that has wildly outperformed all indexes and most companies .
I understand how one company should not be compared to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for ease of understanding it is here .
– In 2019 EPS , Revenue , and profit all went up and not in a slight way .
-Highly anticipated products launches coming out later this year .
-Massive decrease of debt obligations .
So far , I hope this has been relatively straight forward .
NOW LETS TALK ABOUT TRENDS AND NOVEMBER CONCERNS On November 7th , 2016 right before the big day , AMD was trading at $ 6.69 .
A week after jumped to $ 8.71 .
At the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So the first major moment we are looking at really did not have a negative impact .
Him winning helped AMD rise .
March 17th was when Former VP J0E won 3 states ( Florida , Arizona , and Illinois in his primary battle ) .
During this time , COVID was starting to take effect as well .
We 3/16 to 3/18 we see a few percent drop after his win is confirmed .
I do not think in any way was Former VP J0E ’ s win related to that .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and even when comparing AMD to other tech stocks , the drop is minimal at best for the same timeframe .
August 17th is when Former VP J0E was confirmed the nominee in the race .
AMD has virtually zero reaction to this .
So we have quickly looked at 3 major events relating to p01itics and seen how AMD has reacted .
The only noticeable change was in March 2020 during COVID .
It is clear to see how AMD is not influenced by major p01itical events , so I think its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the race will not have a huge impact on the price .
Unless the major indices have a massive jump or dip , AMD will not care .
I looked at other major events like the first stimulus passing and it was more of a player there .
On 3/27 when the Stimulus was signed when compared to a week after , AMD was down $ 2 when it was trading in the $ 40 ’ s .
However , AMD quickly recovered a short time later .
BUT AMD JUMPED RECENTLY BUYING @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today , AMD went from $ 54.96 to $ 86.15 .
Quite the jump in just a few months .
The all-time high was $ 94.28 a short while ago .
Many people are looking at this and saying its too high and the jump was too soon .
Actually , I would agree with them under normal circumstances .
But right now tech carries the market and AMD has new product releases soon with massive hype , their deep learning and data centers will continue to take more market share , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous years .
In no way do I think the price is too high or priced in yet .
Could we see pullbacks in the coming months ?
Absolutely and you should expect them .
What are the chances the new products are a disaster ?
No clue , but if that ’ s your concern then play the hype surrounding the products and get out at the first sign of bad news .
What do I believe the price target to be ?
Before 2020 is over , I would say anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term ?
$ 120 in 2021 Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by amdPCbro
ABSTRACT All, I will focus here on technical and fundamental analysis derived from AMD’s 10K’s and 10Q’s. The most recent 10K is not yet available since the year is not over. I will link my previous post about AMD which covers a good amount of the background here. Overall, I tried to make this as easy to read as possible without going into too much detail about things so you do not get bored.
old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/j2q2wp/if_you_arent_in_for_amd_youre_missing_out_on_free/
-One of the main critiques in that post is how AMD is limited by TSMC supply. It is true TSCM production is booked and they are competing with Intel. This is due to unprecedented demand for the new series they expect. So, if they kept production at old levels then I do not think this would have been such a critique. Since they already sent out record levels of inventory last quarter, I think this bodes well actually. -AMD’s GPU’s are not a big money maker for them so I should not have focused on it. They are not a huge money maker yet. If rumors are true, this will be a breakout product rivaling NVIDIA. -NVIDIA selling out and saying how they are going to have limited supply of new GPU’s is a good thing because it shows demand is high. I cannot state how bad of a take that is. I have yet to see articles confirming retailers (AIB’s) saying they received adequate amounts of GPU’s. This is because their supply chain is destroyed right now. When your only competitor is coming out with GPU’s that will potentially rival yours with no significant supply chain shortages, you’re in danger. -Why would I buy calls on a stock that’s already run up with a P/E of 160? Because it will run up more.
10K/10Q ANALYSIS Alright let’s go over the company and how it is performing compared to previous years. I’ll give you a hint. It’s really good.
All data came from SEC EDGAR For all of the following information, if you have critiques or different ways you view this information please comment or PM me so I can hear what you have to say.
To give context, this graph contextualizes the returns of common stock comparing two indices compared to AMD. To summarize, in a 5-year period, AMD has outperformed the S&P 500 index by a factor of 10 and the Semiconductors Index by a factor of 7.3.
AMD had its first profitable year in a series of years in 2018. The previous years were categorized by Lisa Su heavily investing in new products, trimming fat, and expanding previous profitable divisions.
In 2015, AMD had net loss of 660 million dollars. In 2016, 498 million loss. In 2017, 33 million loss. In 2018, 337 million income and 341 million income in 2019. At the same times, the net revenue increased for AMD from years 2015-2019 by a factor of 1.98x.
In 2015, earnings per share was $-.84. It stayed negative for two years after. Actually, this is not a bad thing in the short term. Companies that need clean up like AMD did in 2012 generally have negative earnings due to such heavy investment to revitalize the company. – In 2018 and 2019, earnings increased to .34 and .31 respectively.
It is important to note that in 2015, AMD implemented its restructuring plan that would cause much of the data below and above this
Why 2019 was such an important year 1: This year signified the launch of the 7nm products, 3rd gen Ryzen’s, Zen 2’s, new Threadripper’s, and new notebooks. 2: Introduction of the 2nd Gen AMD EPYC family of processors that reduced cost of ownership by 50%. 3: Net revenue increased from 6.5 billion to 6.7 billion a 4% increase while gross margin increased by 5%. Operating income increased by 180 million and Cash/cash and marketable securities increased to 1.5 billion. 4: Debt decreased by just under 1 billion dollars compared to 2018 due to large cash on hand and refinancing previous debts.
COMPONENTS OF REVENUE
Computing and Graphics= desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPU’s), data center and professional GPU’s and development services.
Enterprise, Embedded, and Semi-Custom= primarily server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles.
In 2019, Computing and Graphics (Hereby known as C&G) increased by over 14% due to increases in average selling price and 4% increase in shipments due to demand. These factors were driven by strong demand of Ryzen processors. A key takeaway here, a 14% increase due to product reception is absolutely massive. IN 2020, ENTIRE NEW SERIES OF CPU’S AND GPU’S ARE COMING WITH PROMISING LEAKS.
CURRENT 2020= For the 6 months ending June 27, 2020, net revenue was at 3.7 billion. Before release of the major products being announced this month. MAYBE you can start to see why I am writing this.
FINANCIAL CONDITION Having debt is actually a good thing. It allows businesses to finance cheaper than equity, debt can be deducted for taxes, and it prevents takeovers. Having too much to the point where you cannot pay back obligations is a bad thing. – AMD decreased 2019 debt by a billion dollars. You read that correct
Operating cash flow increased by 460 million. Investing cash flow slightly decreased by 21 million Financing activities increased by 15 million to 43 million.
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Just something that I like that AMD does… – AMD hedges its exposure to foreign currency exchange rate risk by entering foreign currency forward contracts. Nothing huge here other than they have yearly losses for this to hedge their exposure.
When comparing their cash flows from previous years, it looks like a completely different company. Their Financial Condition is a company that can pay current debts with a high cash reserve, good amount of debt, foreign market security, and attainable obligations. I chose not to go over notes in Term Debt because I don’t think most people know how they work.
-But essentially, AMD has senior and convertible notes maturing in 2022 and 2026 totaling 1.3 billion.
For gross profit, it has increased from 1.78 billion in 2017 to 2.44 billion in 2018 and 2.87 billion in 2019. Their investment into Research and Development has stayed a large part of their cash flows at 1.5 billion in 2019.
LETS TALK 2020 AND WHY ITS GOING TO BE INSANE HERE ON OUT All of what is detailed below is from the most recent 10-Q for data available up until June 27, 2020.
We see a revenue increase for the Six Months Ended of almost a billion dollars. In turn, we see a proportional cost of sales increase of 400 million. Profit increased by 500 million as well when compared to the previous year. In a non-spectacular year for AMD compared to 2019 so far, the company is destroying its previous self.
-AMD announcements for new GPU’s and CPU’s are coming this month and I expect them to be released shortly after. I highly recommend you look through my previous post for a lot of technical terms about AMD how its systems work in the comments. -EPS for 2020 and 2019 Six Months Ended is .27 and .05 respectively. A .$22 change so far. -Net income is up from 51 million to 319 million. -Cash and Cash equivalents is upon from 1,466 billion to 1,775 billion when compared to December 2019.
SO LETS SUMMARIZE BEFORE WE CONTINUE
-AMD is a company that has wildly outperformed all indexes and most companies. I understand how one company should not be compared to indexes with lots of businesses, but for ease of understanding it is here. – In 2019 EPS, Revenue, and profit all went up and not in a slight way. -Highly anticipated products launches coming out later this year. -Massive decrease of debt obligations.
So far, I hope this has been relatively straight forward.
NOW LETS TALK ABOUT TRENDS AND NOVEMBER CONCERNS
On November 7th, 2016 right before the big day, AMD was trading at $6.69. A week after jumped to $8.71. At the end of December it was at $11.58. So the first major moment we are looking at really did not have a negative impact. Him winning helped AMD rise.
March 17th was when Former VP J0E won 3 states (Florida, Arizona, and Illinois in his primary battle). During this time, COVID was starting to take effect as well. We 3/16 to 3/18 we see a few percent drop after his win is confirmed. I do not think in any way was Former VP J0E’s win related to that. I think it was entirely COVID related and even when comparing AMD to other tech stocks, the drop is minimal at best for the same timeframe.
August 17th is when Former VP J0E was confirmed the nominee in the race. AMD has virtually zero reaction to this.
So we have quickly looked at 3 major events relating to p01itics and seen how AMD has reacted. The only noticeable change was in March 2020 during COVID. It is clear to see how AMD is not influenced by major p01itical events, so I think its safe to say that the outcome of the race will not have a huge impact on the price. Unless the major indices have a massive jump or dip, AMD will not care. I looked at other major events like the first stimulus passing and it was more of a player there. On 3/27 when the Stimulus was signed when compared to a week after, AMD was down $2 when it was trading in the $40’s. However, AMD quickly recovered a short time later.
BUT AMD JUMPED RECENTLY BUYING IS NOT SMART
From 7/15 to EOD today, AMD went from $54.96 to $86.15. Quite the jump in just a few months. The all-time high was $94.28 a short while ago. Many people are looking at this and saying its too high and the jump was too soon. Actually, I would agree with them under normal circumstances. But right now tech carries the market and AMD has new product releases soon with massive hype, their deep learning and data centers will continue to take more market share, and their current financials are incredible compared to previous years. In no way do I think the price is too high or priced in yet.
Could we see pullbacks in the coming months? Absolutely and you should expect them. What are the chances the new products are a disaster? No clue, but if that’s your concern then play the hype surrounding the products and get out at the first sign of bad news. What do I believe the price target to be? Before 2020 is over, I would say anything around $95 is safe. Long term? $120 in 2021
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


1987 Crash Comparison

Before everyone starts yelling at me to gtfo with my bear thesis let me start off by saying this is purely for discussion purposes .
I made a comparison and I want to hear others thoughts on it .
If it ends up behaving the same way , cool , if it doesn ’ t it , well it wouldn ’ t be the first time .
To start off I looked at the September/October 1987 crash the ended with the infamous black monday on 10/19/1987 Here we can see SPX had an initial drop that turned into a falling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
This then rebounded , forming a rising wedge which eventually hit its peak past the 0.618 fib retrace and about 2.7 % short of the previous ATH .
Presently SPX has also found a local bottom about 9.8 % below the ATH .
It broke out of the falling wedge and is forming ( my opinion obviously ) a rising wedge .
If SPX follows a similar path we would see a reversal past the 0.618 fib retrace around the 3460-3490 range .
At the moment I am holding calls and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this wedge is confirmed .
The day SPX broke out of the rising wedge in 1987 it closed below the 20 and 50 day moving averages , so things could move very quickly .
What thoughts do you have on this ?
How stupid am I for writing this ?
Do you like my pretty colors ?
When will my dad come home from his cigarette run ?
All of these are questions I want answered in the comments so please join in .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by Gatorm8
Before everyone starts yelling at me to gtfo with my bear thesis let me start off by saying this is purely for discussion purposes. I made a comparison and I want to hear others thoughts on it. If it ends up behaving the same way, cool, if it doesn’t it, well it wouldn’t be the first time.

To start off I looked at the September/October 1987 crash the ended with the infamous black monday on 10/19/1987
June-October 1987 SPX Chart
Here we can see SPX had an initial drop that turned into a falling wedge. In total losing about 8.5%. This then rebounded, forming a rising wedge which eventually hit its peak past the 0.618 fib retrace and about 2.7% short of the previous ATH.

June 2020-Present SPX Chart
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Presently SPX has also found a local bottom about 9.8% below the ATH. It broke out of the falling wedge and is forming (my opinion obviously) a rising wedge. If SPX follows a similar path we would see a reversal past the 0.618 fib retrace around the 3460-3490 range.

At the moment I am holding calls and will continue to until a break below this wedge is confirmed. The day SPX broke out of the rising wedge in 1987 it closed below the 20 and 50 day moving averages, so things could move very quickly.

What thoughts do you have on this? How stupid am I for writing this? Do you like my pretty colors? When will my dad come home from his cigarette run? All of these are questions I want answered in the comments so please join in.
TL;DR SPX 10/16 calls, hoping to sell early next week.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-08--This Is Why Gold Could Go Up A Lot More.

“ In year after Lehman crisis , most of 20 % of GDP increase in global debt levels due to @ @ @ @ @ the rise in debt levels is not only likely to be higher at 35 % @ @ @ @ @ % by year end ) but more evenly split btw government & private sector ” @

“In year after Lehman crisis, most of 20% of GDP increase in global debt levels due to government. This year, the rise in debt levels is not only likely to be higher at 35% of GDP (to 278% by year end) but more evenly split btw government & private sector” t.co/AcDM8kjCsR
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 7, 2020