investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--We Destroyed the World’s Greatest Economy for No Reason

Everyone knew the second quarter of 2020 was going to be a disaster , and it was .
The U.S. economy fell by 31.4 % ( annualized ) in the second quarter .
But , the expectation was that we ’ d have a V-shaped recovery with a sharp bounce-back in the third quarter , a reopening of closed businesses , rehiring of the unemployed and a rising stock market .
But so far , the economy is not following the script laid out for it by the politicians and experts .
The stock market did rally , but that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are heavily weighted to companies least affected by the pandemic including Amazon , Apple , Netflix , Alphabet ( Google ) , Facebook and Microsoft .
Of course , it didn ’ t hurt that the Federal Reserve printed $ 4 trillion of new money and backstopped money markets , corporate bonds , municipal bonds , foreign central banks and other facets of capital markets with direct purchases , guarantees or currency swaps .
Even at that , stocks have been struggling since hitting new highs on September 2 .
And yes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the best estimate is that the economy will grow at about a 35 % annualized rate , but we won ’ t have official figures until October 29 ) .
The 35 % third-quarter recovery was to be expected as Americans got back to work after the lockdown .
That 35 % rate might sound like the third quarter will basically make up for the second quarter , but it won ’ t .
Not as Good as It Sounds The 35 % gain is applied to the lower level of output resulting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you take 100 as a starting place , reduce it by 31.4 % you get to a new level of 68.6 .
If you increase that level by 35 % you get back to 92.6 .
That still leaves you 7.4 percentage points in the hole , not counting the 5 % drop in the first quarter .
When you apply 7.4 % to a $ 22 trillion economy , that means you still have $ 1.6 trillion of lost output on an annualized basis even after the 35 % third-quarter recovery .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ L ” with flattish growth beyond the third-quarter .
Things will not necessarily get much better from there , and progress is very much in doubt .
The lockdown continues in many places .
The virus has not gone away , and the caseload and fatalities continue to grow .
A second wave of layoffs has now begun as companies that were able to hang on thanks to Payroll Protection Plan loans find that the money has run out , and their businesses are still closed .
They are now being forced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have survived the first layoffs in March and April .
So the letter to describe the recovery isn ’ t a “ V ” or even an “ L ” but possibly a “ W , ” with another recession right around the corner .
Beyond the second wave of layoffs , there is a persistent problem of the long-term unemployed whose businesses are shut down or dead in the water with no prospect of any return of demand .
This is a combination of factors the economy has not seen since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a technical recession , it ’ s a depression , and its effects will be felt for years , or even decades , to come .
When Will Output Return To 2019 Levels ?
The U.S. will not regain 2019 output levels until at least 2022 , and growth going forward will be even worse than the weakest-ever growth of the 2009–2020 recovery .
The post-2009 recovery produced only 2.2 % growth .
It was an L-shaped recovery .
It was a real recovery , yet the output gap between the former trend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The U.S. economy suffered over $ 4 trillion of lost wealth based on the difference between the former strong trend and the new weaker trend .
That lost wealth was a serious problem for the U.S. before the New Great Depression .
Now the prospect is for even lower growth than the weak post-2009 recovery .
The U.S. economy would have to grow 10 % a year in 2021 and 2022 to return to 2019 levels of output .
First , is 10 % growth even a reality ?
Past history says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real growth in GDP has never exceeded 10 % .
In fact , post-1980 recoveries averaged 3.2 % growth .
And since 1984 , growth has never exceeded 5 % .
So 10 % is a very optimistic forecast to begin with .
Here ’ s the problem : Using 100 as a yardstick for 2019 output and assuming unrealistic back-to-back years of 10 % real growth in 2021 and 2022 , one still does not get back to 2019 output levels .
It would take the highest annual real growth in over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , to get close to 2019 output levels .
It ’ s far more realistic to assume real growth will be less than 10 % per year .
That puts the economy well into 2023 before reaching output levels last achieved in 2019 .
The new recovery , far from the 10 % growth discussed in the example above , may only produce 1.8 % growth , even worse than the 2.2 % growth before the pandemic .
It ’ s another L-shaped recovery , the second in a row .
Now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closer to a flat line , and the output gap compared with the long-term trend is even greater .
All of this economic devastation was not caused directly by the virus .
It was caused by the policy response to the virus , specifically the extreme lockdowns ordered by many state governors .
Was it all worth it ?
The likely answer is “ no.
” 90 % of Lockdown Benefits at Only 10 % of the Cost Many top scientists agree that lockdowns don ’ t work .
The virus will spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures make sense such as washing hands , keeping social distance and wearing masks in crowded spaces .
But there ’ s no evidence masks do any good at all when the wearer is alone , outdoors or at a reasonable distance from others .
We could have followed these basic rules and gotten 90 % of the benefit of a lockdown at only 10 % of the cost .
Those supporting lockdowns have ignored the costs of increased suicides , drug abuse , alcohol abuse , domestic violence and the depression and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interaction .
There was never a good reason to close every bar , restaurant , salon , boutique and public space .
“ We Destroyed the World ’ s Greatest Economy for No Good Reason ” Even the World Health Organization is coming out against lockdowns .
Dr David Nabarro , the WHO ’ s special envoy on COVID-19 , says : We destroyed the world ’ s greatest economy for no good reason .

by Jim Rickards via Daily Reckoning
Everyone knew the second quarter of 2020 was going to be a disaster, and it was. The U.S. economy fell by 31.4% (annualized) in the second quarter.
But, the expectation was that we’d have a V-shaped recovery with a sharp bounce-back in the third quarter, a reopening of closed businesses, rehiring of the unemployed and a rising stock market.
But so far, the economy is not following the script laid out for it by the politicians and experts.
The stock market did rally, but that was mainly because the stock index components are heavily weighted to companies least affected by the pandemic including Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet (Google), Facebook and Microsoft.
Of course, it didn’t hurt that the Federal Reserve printed $4 trillion of new money and backstopped money markets, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, foreign central banks and other facets of capital markets with direct purchases, guarantees or currency swaps.
Even at that, stocks have been struggling since hitting new highs on September 2.
And yes, there was growth in the third-quarter (the best estimate is that the economy will grow at about a 35% annualized rate, but we won’t have official figures until October 29).
The 35% third-quarter recovery was to be expected as Americans got back to work after the lockdown. That 35% rate might sound like the third quarter will basically make up for the second quarter, but it won’t.
Not as Good as It Sounds
The 35% gain is applied to the lower level of output resulting from the 31.4% loss. If you take 100 as a starting place, reduce it by 31.4% you get to a new level of 68.6. If you increase that level by 35% you get back to 92.6.
That still leaves you 7.4 percentage points in the hole, not counting the 5% drop in the first quarter. When you apply 7.4% to a $22 trillion economy, that means you still have $1.6 trillion of lost output on an annualized basis even after the 35% third-quarter recovery.
The V-shaped recovery looks more like an “L” with flattish growth beyond the third-quarter. Things will not necessarily get much better from there, and progress is very much in doubt.
The lockdown continues in many places. The virus has not gone away, and the caseload and fatalities continue to grow.
A second wave of layoffs has now begun as companies that were able to hang on thanks to Payroll Protection Plan loans find that the money has run out, and their businesses are still closed. They are now being forced to let go of workers who might have survived the first layoffs in March and April.
So the letter to describe the recovery isn’t a “V” or even an “L” but possibly a “W,” with another recession right around the corner.
Beyond the second wave of layoffs, there is a persistent problem of the long-term unemployed whose businesses are shut down or dead in the water with no prospect of any return of demand.
This is a combination of factors the economy has not seen since the 1930s. It’s worse than a technical recession, it’s a depression, and its effects will be felt for years, or even decades, to come.
When Will Output Return To 2019 Levels?
The U.S. will not regain 2019 output levels until at least 2022, and growth going forward will be even worse than the weakest-ever growth of the 2009–2020 recovery.
The post-2009 recovery produced only 2.2% growth. It was an L-shaped recovery. It was a real recovery, yet the output gap between the former trend and the new trend was never closed.
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The U.S. economy suffered over $4 trillion of lost wealth based on the difference between the former strong trend and the new weaker trend.
That lost wealth was a serious problem for the U.S. before the New Great Depression. Now the prospect is for even lower growth than the weak post-2009 recovery.
The U.S. economy would have to grow 10% a year in 2021 and 2022 to return to 2019 levels of output.
First, is 10% growth even a reality? Past history says no.
Since 1943, U.S. annual real growth in GDP has never exceeded 10%. In fact, post-1980 recoveries averaged 3.2% growth. And since 1984, growth has never exceeded 5%.
So 10% is a very optimistic forecast to begin with. Here’s the problem:
Using 100 as a yardstick for 2019 output and assuming unrealistic back-to-back years of 10% real growth in 2021 and 2022, one still does not get back to 2019 output levels.
It would take the highest annual real growth in over 40 years, sustained for two consecutive years, to get close to 2019 output levels.
It’s far more realistic to assume real growth will be less than 10% per year. That puts the economy well into 2023 before reaching output levels last achieved in 2019.
Another “L”-shaped Recovery
The new recovery, far from the 10% growth discussed in the example above, may only produce 1.8% growth, even worse than the 2.2% growth before the pandemic.
It’s another L-shaped recovery, the second in a row. Now the bottom of the L is even closer to a flat line, and the output gap compared with the long-term trend is even greater.
All of this economic devastation was not caused directly by the virus. It was caused by the policy response to the virus, specifically the extreme lockdowns ordered by many state governors.
Was it all worth it? The likely answer is “no.”
90% of Lockdown Benefits at Only 10% of the Cost
Many top scientists agree that lockdowns don’t work. The virus will spread with or without a lockdown. Some measures make sense such as washing hands, keeping social distance and wearing masks in crowded spaces.
But there’s no evidence masks do any good at all when the wearer is alone, outdoors or at a reasonable distance from others.
We could have followed these basic rules and gotten 90% of the benefit of a lockdown at only 10% of the cost.
Those supporting lockdowns have ignored the costs of increased suicides, drug abuse, alcohol abuse, domestic violence and the depression and anxiety that result from lack of social interaction. There was never a good reason to close every bar, restaurant, salon, boutique and public space.
“We Destroyed the World’s Greatest Economy for No Good Reason”
Even the World Health Organization is coming out against lockdowns. Dr David Nabarro, the WHO’s special envoy on COVID-19, says:
We really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method… We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus. The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.
We destroyed the world’s greatest economy for no good reason.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Alert $27 Trillion Dollar Government Debt Heading To Economic Collapse & Stock MARKET CRASH

The government debt has become so massive , it will exceed the entire size of the economy by the end of next year .
Additionally , the national budget deficit is expected to hit record highs , also pushing the economy into another , more intricate collapse , and consequently , spreading fear on the stock markets that will unavoidably experience a crash .
This scenario corroborates with the assertion that the US economic collapse has just begun .
For that reason , in this video , we discuss how the huge national debt and the budget deficit will lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and economic depression , and we present to you a report that shows regardless of who ’ s the winner of the elections , the national debt bubble will explode in any way .
Recently , the national debt surpassed $ 27 trillion , about three months ago , the debt was standing at $ 24 million .
It took the nation 210 years to run the National Debt up to $ 2 trillion .
It took exactly 2 months and 2 days to add the most recent $ 2 trillion .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set a new record for the biggest budget deficit in any fiscal year .
The federal response to the health crisis was the main catalyst for the massive spike in the budget deficit .
For Fiscal Year 2020 the budget deficit will be at least $ 3.7 trillion , or 17.9 % of projected GDP , and it could reach even larger levels in face of a second surge of infection cases .
This figure is more than three times as much as the 2019 default and more than double the levels seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2008-09 .
The expansion of the deficit will boost the federal debt to exceed annual gross domestic product next year , to levels last witnessed following World War II .
However , when debt levels exploded as a consequence of the enormous borrowing to finance the WW2 effort , those levels swiftly declined during the postwar boom .
Right now , we won ’ t see these levels receding any sooner , since the federal spending tendency is to create more debt .
In fact , behind the facade President Trump called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of America ” , the federal government was already engaged in fiscal stimulus .
Even before the outbreak has arrived in America , the deficit featured numbers you would expect to see during a massive economic slowdown .
The federal response to it , just put spending and debt in hyperdrive .
As we approach the November 3rd elections , a report warns that despite who wins , the spending trend will continue and , in both scenarios , the national debt will likely explode .
The report outlines that under current law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new normal .
If things were bad before , from now on they ’ re only getting worse , because after analyzing the spending and tax proposals from both candidates , the organization discovered that in either case , economic prospects will be bleak .
The difference between both agendas is derisive and the main discrepancy would be defined by how the two candidates would manage to arrive at these deficits .
What our leaders are failing to do is to help to end the health crisis and effectively rescuing the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But by taking advantage of the current monetary policy , debt levels won ’ t cease to grow .
The administration has the responsibility to balance its spending not to put the financial markets rebound at the expense of people ’ s lives .
If government officials aren ’ t held accountable for their decisions , their tendency is to always enact fiscally reckless policies .
By looking at both spending proposals , we can clearly see that we can ’ t rely on Team Red or Team Blue to save the day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the national debt is not only a federal problem .
We are the ones who are going to pay for it .
It means we will be seeing these massive numbers translated into higher taxes and massive inflation , as a result , less income , higher prices , and more bills to pay .
Politicians will not lead us out of the current fiscal calamity they have put us into .
Instead , they will use our economic illiteracy to keep us into a loop where we endlessly jump from an @ @ @ @ @ @ @

The government debt has become so massive, it will exceed the entire size of the economy by the end of next year. Additionally, the national budget deficit is expected to hit record highs, also pushing the economy into another, more intricate collapse, and consequently, spreading fear on the stock markets that will unavoidably experience a crash.
This scenario corroborates with the assertion that the US economic collapse has just begun. For that reason, in this video, we discuss how the huge national debt and the budget deficit will lead us to a catastrophic path of financial and economic depression, and we present to you a report that shows regardless of who’s the winner of the elections, the national debt bubble will explode in any way.
Recently, the national debt surpassed $27 trillion, about three months ago, the debt was standing at $24 million. It took the nation 210 years to run the National Debt up to $2 trillion. It took exactly 2 months and 2 days to add the most recent $2 trillion. At the same time, the federal government set a new record for the biggest budget deficit in any fiscal year.
The federal response to the health crisis was the main catalyst for the massive spike in the budget deficit. For Fiscal Year 2020 the budget deficit will be at least $3.7 trillion, or 17.9% of projected GDP, and it could reach even larger levels in face of a second surge of infection cases. This figure is more than three times as much as the 2019 default and more than double the levels seen after the market collapse and Great Recession of 2008-09.
The expansion of the deficit will boost the federal debt to exceed annual gross domestic product next year, to levels last witnessed following World War II. However, when debt levels exploded as a consequence of the enormous borrowing to finance the WW2 effort, those levels swiftly declined during the postwar boom.
Right now, we won’t see these levels receding any sooner, since the federal spending tendency is to create more debt. In fact, behind the facade President Trump called “the greatest economy in the history of America”, the federal government was already engaged in fiscal stimulus.
Even before the outbreak has arrived in America, the deficit featured numbers you would expect to see during a massive economic slowdown. The federal response to it, just put spending and debt in hyperdrive.
As we approach the November 3rd elections, a report warns that despite who wins, the spending trend will continue and, in both scenarios, the national debt will likely explode. The report outlines that under current law, trillion-dollar annual budget deficits will become the new normal.
If things were bad before, from now on they’re only getting worse, because after analyzing the spending and tax proposals from both candidates, the organization discovered that in either case, economic prospects will be bleak. The difference between both agendas is derisive and the main discrepancy would be defined by how the two candidates would manage to arrive at these deficits.
What our leaders are failing to do is to help to end the health crisis and effectively rescuing the economy, addressing these unsustainable long-term deficits. But by taking advantage of the current monetary policy, debt levels won’t cease to grow. The administration has the responsibility to balance its spending not to put the financial markets rebound at the expense of people’s lives.
If government officials aren’t held accountable for their decisions, their tendency is to always enact fiscally reckless policies. By looking at both spending proposals, we can clearly see that we can’t rely on Team Red or Team Blue to save the day. What many may not understand is that the national debt is not only a federal problem. We are the ones who are going to pay for it.
It means we will be seeing these massive numbers translated into higher taxes and massive inflation, as a result, less income, higher prices, and more bills to pay. Politicians will not lead us out of the current fiscal calamity they have put us into. Instead, they will use our economic illiteracy to keep us into a loop where we endlessly jump from an economic rock bottom to the next.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Biden Says Voters “Don’t Deserve to Know” If Dems Will Pack The Court

In his usual broken shamble of a response Biden Answers the question if voters deserve to know if Democrats will @ @ @ @ @ increasing the number of justices :

In his usual broken shamble of a response Biden Answers the question if voters deserve to know if Democrats will pack the Supreme Court, increasing the number of justices:
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Reporter: "Don't the voters deserve to know [your position on packing the courts?]"@JoeBiden: "No, they don't deserve" pic.twitter.com/xF1Ywtf0od — Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) October 10, 2020
h/t Natura Naturans


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--October Stock Market Crash? 80% Drop With Bank Failures And Bankruptcies

Experts are warning that a stock market crash is brewing and it will devastate the prospects of an economic rebound and boost a massive banking crisis with bankruptcies .
In this video , we examine the signals pointing to an unprecedented collapse on the markets and use experts ’ insight to explain to you how this may be the biggest monetary disaster in American history .
Market watchers are alerting that with so many different deteriorating elements piling up , at this point , a crash is unavoidable .
Even the Fed ’ s extraordinary monetary policies and the Congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keep the bubble inflated won ’ t be enough to hold off the financial crash for much longer .
Despite the remarkable rebound in stocks we have recently witnessed , this upswing hasn ’ t been supported by the reality of the beaten U.S. economy , and stocks are being priced for a fully materialized economy recovery , and if there ’ s something we surely know , is that the economy isn ’ t improving at all .
Although we have seen unemployment rates fall , the numbers are still worrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that were lost are gone for good .
Furthermore , forecasts project the U.S. economy will likely spiral down again during the last three months of 2020 and by 2021 the GDP could decline by 1.7 % .
Right now , the biggest concern is that a second wave of viral infections will emerge as we approach the cold season , triggering more business closings and significantly reducing business activity .
And , in case of a substantial surge in cases , that itself could lead the stock market into a crash .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just one of the numerous signs that a stock market crash is looming .
Amongst the most worrying signals that the market is about to break is the growing corporate debt bubble .
The U.S. corporate debt has jumped to $ 11 trillion in 2020 , as many companies struggled to replace earnings lost to the outbreak-induced lockdown .
In this sense , a second wave of infection cases could spark a larger surge in defaults , and of course , markets won ’ t like that .
Also , the national debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a financial meltdown .
The fiscal stimulus spending alone has added $ 4 trillion to the national debt up until now , which has driven the debt-to-GDP ratio past 100 % .
From now on , GOP resistance will cut back on stimulus spending , meaning that stock market triumph has its days numbered .
Additionally , according to stock market rules created by Wall Street veteran Bob Farrell , a bear market starts with a large downfall , which is then followed by a “ reflexive rebound.
” We have witnessed both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market continues to follow the rule , the third stage will cause a dramatic decline .
The possibility of a contested election , for its part , will spread fear amongst investors , who think a Trump-Biden legal fight will linger for a long time and act as a driving force to create a more acute , longer-term stock market collapse .
Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors , David Hunter disclosed that he believes we are on the brink of “ the biggest monetary disaster in historical past ” .
The strategist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phases , In a nutshell , Hunter expects a large “ soften up ” rally to take place within the subsequent few months , and ultimately it will “ set the stage for an 80 % inventory crash ” .
In his perspective , the only repercussion that stemmed from the economic crisis resulted from the viral outbreak was a “ fake-out sell-off ” .
And the results of it were only a blip on the radar of a lot bigger , debt-and-leverage-fueled development that has been constructing for years .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of debt and leverage on which the monetary system is based upon will start stumbling .
By adding some extra trillions of presidency and Federal Reserve stimulus into the equation , then we ’ ll dive even deeper in debt .
At this stage , liquidity injections will only be one more aggravating factor , because our monetary system will be so overly-stressed by the excessive amount of debt , businesses bankruptcies , and unbacked leveraged that the next stock market crash will likely break historical standards , leaving us in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Experts are warning that a stock market crash is brewing and it will devastate the prospects of an economic rebound and boost a massive banking crisis with bankruptcies.
In this video, we examine the signals pointing to an unprecedented collapse on the markets and use experts’ insight to explain to you how this may be the biggest monetary disaster in American history.
Market watchers are alerting that with so many different deteriorating elements piling up, at this point, a crash is unavoidable. Even the Fed’s extraordinary monetary policies and the Congressional stimulus plans that inject trillions of dollars to keep the bubble inflated won’t be enough to hold off the financial crash for much longer.
Despite the remarkable rebound in stocks we have recently witnessed, this upswing hasn’t been supported by the reality of the beaten U.S. economy, and stocks are being priced for a fully materialized economy recovery, and if there’s something we surely know, is that the economy isn’t improving at all.
Although we have seen unemployment rates fall, the numbers are still worrying and approximately 20% of the jobs that were lost are gone for good. Furthermore, forecasts project the U.S. economy will likely spiral down again during the last three months of 2020 and by 2021 the GDP could decline by 1.7%.
Right now, the biggest concern is that a second wave of viral infections will emerge as we approach the cold season, triggering more business closings and significantly reducing business activity. And, in case of a substantial surge in cases, that itself could lead the stock market into a crash. But unfortunately, the outbreak-related disruptions are just one of the numerous signs that a stock market crash is looming.
Amongst the most worrying signals that the market is about to break is the growing corporate debt bubble. The U.S. corporate debt has jumped to $11 trillion in 2020, as many companies struggled to replace earnings lost to the outbreak-induced lockdown. In this sense, a second wave of infection cases could spark a larger surge in defaults, and of course, markets won’t like that.
Also, the national debt bubble will certainly add more pressure to a financial meltdown. The fiscal stimulus spending alone has added $4 trillion to the national debt up until now, which has driven the debt-to-GDP ratio past 100%. From now on, GOP resistance will cut back on stimulus spending, meaning that stock market triumph has its days numbered.
Additionally, according to stock market rules created by Wall Street veteran Bob Farrell, a bear market starts with a large downfall, which is then followed by a “reflexive rebound.” We have witnessed both of those stages this year. If the market continues to follow the rule, the third stage will cause a dramatic decline.
The possibility of a contested election, for its part, will spread fear amongst investors, who think a Trump-Biden legal fight will linger for a long time and act as a driving force to create a more acute, longer-term stock market collapse. Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, David Hunter disclosed that he believes we are on the brink of “the biggest monetary disaster in historical past”.
The strategist separates his apocalyptic prediction into two distinct phases, In a nutshell, Hunter expects a large “soften up” rally to take place within the subsequent few months, and ultimately it will “set the stage for an 80% inventory crash”. In his perspective, the only repercussion that stemmed from the economic crisis resulted from the viral outbreak was a “fake-out sell-off”.
And the results of it were only a blip on the radar of a lot bigger, debt-and-leverage-fueled development that has been constructing for years. That’s why he defends that the huge amount of debt and leverage on which the monetary system is based upon will start stumbling. By adding some extra trillions of presidency and Federal Reserve stimulus into the equation, then we’ll dive even deeper in debt.
At this stage, liquidity injections will only be one more aggravating factor, because our monetary system will be so overly-stressed by the excessive amount of debt, businesses bankruptcies, and unbacked leveraged that the next stock market crash will likely break historical standards, leaving us in a deep economic rock bottom one more time.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Look for a 4-7X Increase in Food Prices Moving Forward, Here’s Why

Looking back through historical grain prices to 1200 AD , every Grand Solar Minimum prices spiked between 4-7X for several @ @ @ @ @ levels and then again spiked in a series of ups and downs , not never @ @ @ @ @ .
Goats and Sheep were the animals most raised during these times as cattle consumed @ @ @ @ @ are repeating this cycle again , so in 2021 look for huge increases , question @ @ @ @ @ this ?

Looking back through historical grain prices to 1200 AD, every Grand Solar Minimum prices spiked between 4-7X for several years then returned to base levels and then again spiked in a series of ups and downs, not never ending run ups in price. Goats and Sheep were the animals most raised during these times as cattle consumed too much food. We are repeating this cycle again, so in 2021 look for huge increases, question is our society ready for this?
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investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--In 2020, There’s No Shame In Getting A Sexually Transmitted Disease, But There Is Shame In Catching

In 2020, There’s No Shame In Getting A Sexually Transmitted Disease, But There Is Shame In Catching Coronavirus

April is STD ( Sexually Transmitted Disease ) Awareness Month , as you might have guessed by the influx of @ @ @ @ @ public health crusades draw attention to STDs and STIs , but they also leave out @ @ @ @ @ people who already have them .
One in five Americans have genital herpes .
Think @ @ @ @ @ room of 25 people , five of them will have herpes .
And yet for @ @ @ @ @ “ I have an STI , ” seems terrifying .
A group of STI-positive women @ @ @ @ @ .
Writer and social media maven Ella Dawson , along with social work student Kayla @ @ @ @ @ de la Cretaz , and writer/activist Lachrista Greco started the hashtag # ShoutYourStatus to destigmatize @ @ @ @ @ to promote a more open conversation about living with STIs .
“ It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ STI-shaming narrative , and instead , infuse it with facts and compassion , ” Greco @ @ @

April is STD (Sexually Transmitted Disease) Awareness Month, as you might have guessed by the influx of awareness campaigns. These important public health crusades draw attention to STDs and STIs, but they also leave out a crucial population: The people who already have them.
One in five Americans have genital herpes. Think about that — in a room of 25 people, five of them will have herpes. And yet for most people, publicly declaring “I have an STI,” seems terrifying.
A group of STI-positive women are trying to change that. Writer and social media maven Ella Dawson, along with social work student Kayla Axelrod, freelance writer Britni de la Cretaz, and writer/activist Lachrista Greco started the hashtag #ShoutYourStatus to destigmatize STIs. Their goal is to promote a more open conversation about living with STIs.
“It’s important to take back the STI-shaming narrative, and instead, infuse it with facts and compassion,” Greco told Revelist.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Wolf Blitzer puts Pelosi in her place. Her response is crazy

This is such a disgusting display by Pelosi who denigrates @ wolfblitzer for pushing her on why exactly she wo @ @ @ @ @ The White House on stimulus Props to Wolf for speaking up for the millions of @ @ @ @ @ and those on the brink pic.twitter.com/FKAUDVXGkW

This is such a disgusting display by Pelosi who denigrates @wolfblitzer for pushing her on why exactly she won't do a deal w/ The White House on stimulus
Props to Wolf for speaking up for the millions of unemployed, the hungry, and those on the brink pic.twitter.com/FKAUDVXGkW
— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) October 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--This Week’s Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered A SHORT SQUEEZE In The NASDAQ And A Utilities BREAKOUT

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders Rather quickly in trading late Sunday night , the NQ ( NASDAQ E-Mini Futures ) began to move higher quite consistently .
By the time the markets opened in London on Monday , the rally was ON .
We believe this is related to two underlying factors : A .
Short positions were getting squeezed after the end of week rally in the markets last week .
The upside price pressure early in trading on Sunday/Monday likely forced many of these shorts out of the market – creating a Short Squeeze .
B @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biased election victory by Donald Trump based on news events or other information .
This close to an election and with pending Q3 earnings just days away , a melt-up rally like this is fairly uncommon – unless you take into consideration that global investors may be pre positioning for an expected outcome .
Still , one can ’ t discount the upside move in the NQ today , as seen on this 30 minute chart ( below ) .
The rally started off moderately strong , then London opened Monday .
After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ price began to rally even higher .
We believe this rally phase will abate after the momentum phase has pushed prices high enough to prompt some concerns .
You can ’ t fight the squeeze when it happens , but you can ’ t chase it very long either .
DOW JONES 30 MINUTE RALLY , OR LACK OF RALLY FROM UNDERPERFORMING SECTORS The following YM ( Dow Jones E-Mini Futures ) chart , on the other hand , represented a very small rally phase compared to the NASDAQ .
This suggests more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Healthcare sectors recently as traders attempted to scoop up Call Options ahead of earnings .
The Dow Jones and the S & P 500 were still higher today , but these two major indexes were not included in the dynamic Short Squeeze like the NASDAQ was today .
If you take a look at the following Utilities Sector ETF ( XLU ) it is clear that in the past few weeks they are outperforming almost all other sectors .
New multi-month highs , strong momentum , and this is what happens when investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defensive companies that will always be needed during a recession .
Take a look at what utilities did in Jan/Feb when investors started to get nervous about the economy/COVID .
I look at utilities as one of the last moves before a market correction .
Our research continues to suggest we are still in a Bullish price trend .
Our Super Cycles research and other predictive modeling system suggest volatility and risk factors are still very elevated .
In other words , we believe the US market trends are biased to the upside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the elections .
We are also very cautious of election volatility and unknown factors such as earnings and other issues .
As of today , Tuesday , the NASDAQ is continuing higher as positive earnings start to hit the wires .
Learn how our predictive modeling and other advanced trading technology can assist you in finding the best trades .
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997 , I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities .
I believe I have a good pulse on the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and short-term swing traders .
Don ’ t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups .
If you want to learn how to become a better trader and investor , visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you make money with our swing and investing signals .
NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research .
It is provided for educational purposes only to our subscribers and not intended to be acted upon .
@ @ @ @ @ @

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders
Rather quickly in trading late Sunday night, the NQ (NASDAQ E-Mini Futures) began to move higher quite consistently. By the time the markets opened in London on Monday, the rally was ON. We believe this is related to two underlying factors:
A. Short positions were getting squeezed after the end of week rally in the markets last week. The upside price pressure early in trading on Sunday/Monday likely forced many of these shorts out of the market – creating a Short Squeeze.
B. Global traders may be interpreting a biased election victory by Donald Trump based on news events or other information. This close to an election and with pending Q3 earnings just days away, a melt-up rally like this is fairly uncommon – unless you take into consideration that global investors may be pre positioning for an expected outcome.
30 MINUTE CHART OF NASDAQ SHOWING THIS WEEKS RALLY & SQUEEZE
Still, one can’t discount the upside move in the NQ today, as seen on this 30 minute chart (below). The rally started off moderately strong, then London opened Monday. After London opened, the momentum grew and price began to rally even higher. We believe this rally phase will abate after the momentum phase has pushed prices high enough to prompt some concerns. You can’t fight the squeeze when it happens, but you can’t chase it very long either.
DOW JONES 30 MINUTE RALLY, OR LACK OF RALLY FROM UNDERPERFORMING SECTORS
The following YM (Dow Jones E-Mini Futures) chart, on the other hand, represented a very small rally phase compared to the NASDAQ. This suggests more interest was centered in the Technology and Healthcare sectors recently as traders attempted to scoop up Call Options ahead of earnings. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were still higher today, but these two major indexes were not included in the dynamic Short Squeeze like the NASDAQ was today.
DAILY CHART OF UTILITY SECTOR SHOWS SIGNS OF LEADERSHIP
If you take a look at the following Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) it is clear that in the past few weeks they are outperforming almost all other sectors. New multi-month highs, strong momentum, and this is what happens when investors start to become nervous. They buy defensive companies that will always be needed during a recession.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Take a look at what utilities did in Jan/Feb when investors started to get nervous about the economy/COVID. I look at utilities as one of the last moves before a market correction.
Our research continues to suggest we are still in a Bullish price trend. Our Super Cycles research and other predictive modeling system suggest volatility and risk factors are still very elevated. In other words, we believe the US market trends are biased to the upside right now and may break higher after the elections. We are also very cautious of election volatility and unknown factors such as earnings and other issues.
As of today, Tuesday, the NASDAQ is continuing higher as positive earnings start to hit the wires. Learn how our predictive modeling and other advanced trading technology can assist you in finding the best trades.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
If you want to learn how to become a better trader and investor, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you make money with our swing and investing signals.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only to our subscribers and not intended to be acted upon. Read our FULL DISCLAIMER here.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--S&P 500 (SPX) Growth Doesn’t Attract the Smart Money, Only Dumb Money Buys It Now

However , smart money is not always the smartest .
Dumb Money Vs Smart One on S & P 500 Growth Smart money is not supporting the current S & P 500 growth , according to the sentimentrader.com .
Throughout the year , the smart money has proven to be a fairly effective forward-looking indicator for predicting further market movements .
however , it can not be called completely reliable .
However , now only dumb money supports the growth of the index , which occurs after the September correction .
Smart money includes investment funds and large institutional investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are more balanced , as they have the connections , resources , and time for a much more complete analysis of financial markets .
In contrast , retail investors are called the “ Dumb money ” based on the fact that they have less information and more often make investment decisions using only intuition .
Earlier , the extremely low ratio of the S & P 500 buy/sell ratio was already noted , which indicated the unwillingness of insiders to buy out this correction , as was the case earlier in April and @ @

by Usman Salis
However, smart money is not always the smartest.
Image Source: sentimentrader.com
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Dumb Money Vs Smart One on S&P 500 Growth
Smart money is not supporting the current S&P 500 growth, according to the sentimentrader.com. Throughout the year, the smart money has proven to be a fairly effective forward-looking indicator for predicting further market movements. however, it cannot be called completely reliable. However, now only dumb money supports the growth of the index, which occurs after the September correction.
Smart money includes investment funds and large institutional investors. It is believed that their decisions are more balanced, as they have the connections, resources, and time for a much more complete analysis of financial markets. In contrast, retail investors are called the “Dumb money” based on the fact that they have less information and more often make investment decisions using only intuition.
Insiders Don’t Want to Buy SPX
Earlier, the extremely low ratio of the S&P 500 buy/sell ratio was already noted, which indicated the unwillingness of insiders to buy out this correction, as was the case earlier in April and March.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--The Only Thing That is Certain, is That Things Are Uncertain with Henry Weingarten

Henry Weingarten is back… From October 30th to November 3rd , the market is likely to be done .
If the market goes to the highest levels then it ’ s time to short .
Calling Trump to win even after Covid .
Gold will be climbing no matter who wins come November and December .
Right now markets are rallying , if they take out their highs , it ’ s time to short .
Pre-Covid it almost certain Trump would win .
In any case , cash , gold and silver are preferred .
Time to protect your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coming year .
Oil will be up next year $ 40- $ 50 a barrel .
The next 20 years will see decentralized living .
Entertainment is going to be big in the coming year .
Safety and security is looking up .
Healthcare is up after the election .
Computer tech is already high , but China ’ s coming ills could affect the Apples of the world .
China is in for a very challenging time .
Expect them to be bellicose and belligerent .
Click Here to Listen to @ @

from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network
Henry Weingarten is back… From October 30th to November 3rd, the market is likely to be done. If the market goes to the highest levels then it’s time to short. Calling Trump to win even after Covid. Gold will be climbing no matter who wins come November and December. Right now markets are rallying, if they take out their highs, it’s time to short. Pre-Covid it almost certain Trump would win. In any case, cash, gold and silver are preferred. Time to protect your assets. Covid will be over in the coming year. Oil will be up next year $40-$50 a barrel. The next 20 years will see decentralized living. Entertainment is going to be big in the coming year. Safety and security is looking up. Healthcare is up after the election. Computer tech is already high, but China’s coming ills could affect the Apples of the world. China is in for a very challenging time. Expect them to be bellicose and belligerent.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Celente: For Trump To Win, It’s The Economy Stupid

Gerald Celente steals the Bill Clinton era campaign motto ‘ It ’ s the Economy Stupid ’ and applies it @ @ @ @ @ to win reelection by focusing on reopening the economy .
Gerald Celente is a pioneer @ @ @ @ @ The Trends Research Institute .
He is the author of the national bestseller Trends 2000 @ @ @ @ @ and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century and publisher of the internationally circulated @ @ @ @ @ Celente is a political atheist .
Unencumbered by political dogma , rigid ideology or conventional @ @ @ @ @ motto is “ think for yourself , ” observes and analyzes the current events forming @ @ @ @ @ are – not for the way he wants them to be .
Gerald Celente has @ @ @ @ @ The most trusted name in trends ” by accurately forecasting hundreds of social , business @ @ @ @ @ economic , political , entertainment , and technology trends .

Infowars, Released on 10/12/20
Gerald Celente steals the Bill Clinton era campaign motto ‘It’s the Economy Stupid’ and applies it to Trump’s strategy to win reelection by focusing on reopening the economy.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Gerald Celente is a pioneer trend strategist and founder of The Trends Research Institute. He is the author of the national bestseller Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century and publisher of the internationally circulated Trends Journal newsletter. Gerald Celente is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma, rigid ideology or conventional wisdom, Celente, whose motto is “think for yourself,” observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends for what they are – not for the way he wants them to be. Gerald Celente has earned his reputation as “The most trusted name in trends” by accurately forecasting hundreds of social, business, consumer, environmental, economic, political, entertainment, and technology trends.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Mortgage Rates Crashing With Crashing Money Velocity

I never thought I would see this .
30Y fixed-rates for mortgages are crashing with crashing M2 Money velocity .
@ @ @ @ @ the symbol of failure .

by confoundedinterest17
I never thought I would see this. 30Y fixed-rates for mortgages are crashing with crashing M2 Money velocity.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Powell’s face is the symbol of failure.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--US Core Inflation Clocks In At … 1.7% YoY And Real Avg Weekly Earnings At 4.1% YoY, Rent Inflation F

US Core Inflation Clocks In At … 1.7% YoY And Real Avg Weekly Earnings At 4.1% YoY, Rent Inflation Falls To 2.5% YoY (Taylor Rule Suggests Fed Funds Target Rate Of -0.51%)

Well , the Consumer Price Index less food and energy remain near the same level , 1.7133 % YoY and @ @ @ @ @ growth of 1.5934 % YoY .
US Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY checked it at @ @ @ @ @ CPI Urban Consumers Owners Equivalent Rent of Residences YoY fell to 2.5 % YoY despite @ @ @ @ @ Rudebusch variation of the Taylor Rule suggests that the Fed Funds Target rate should be @ @ @ @ @ a side note , the US Dollar rose and gold got clubbed downwards .

by confoundedinterest17
Well, the Consumer Price Index less food and energy remain near the same level, 1.7133% YoY and is leading the Core PCE growth of 1.5934% YoY.
US Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY checked it at 4.1% YoY.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
US CPI Urban Consumers Owners Equivalent Rent of Residences YoY fell to 2.5% YoY despite massive Fed intervention.
The Rudebusch variation of the Taylor Rule suggests that the Fed Funds Target rate should be at -0.51%.
On a side note, the US Dollar rose and gold got clubbed downwards.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--European countries enforce new restrictions as coronavirus cases hit record high – curfews in Italy,

European countries enforce new restrictions as coronavirus cases hit record high – curfews in Italy, Germany, Spain, UK, Ireland

Governments across Europe are ratcheting up restrictions as the continent recorded its highest weekly number of new coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic .
The World Health Organisation ( WHO ) said there were more than 700,000 new Covid-19 cases reported in Europe last week , a jump of 34 % compared to the previous week , with the UK , France , Russia and Spain accounting for more than half of new infections recorded in the region .
The increasing case numbers in Europe are partly the result of more testing , but the UN health agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % in the region last week compared to the previous week .
Doctors are also warning that while many new cases currently affect younger people , who tend to have milder symptoms , the median age could rise again , resulting in more serious illnesses in elderly populations .
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered bans on sports games among friends and parties in closed spaces .
Private gatherings at homes with more than six people who do not live together are also discouraged .
Like other European countries , Italy is also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having to close at midnight , and drinking while standing at a bar banned after 9pm .
Italy made wearing masks mandatory outdoors last week , a requirement already in place in Spain , Turkey , India and a handful of other Asian countries .
Elsewhere in Europe , such mandates are in effect in hotspot cities like Paris , Brussels and Pristina , Kosovo , and are being introduced in several German cities .
French govt says curfews on the table as ministers mull new Covid-19 measures

Governments across Europe are ratcheting up restrictions as the continent recorded its highest weekly number of new coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said there were more than 700,000 new Covid-19 cases reported in Europe last week, a jump of 34% compared to the previous week, with the UK, France, Russia and Spain accounting for more than half of new infections recorded in the region.
The increasing case numbers in Europe are partly the result of more testing, but the UN health agency noted that deaths were also up 16% in the region last week compared to the previous week.
Doctors are also warning that while many new cases currently affect younger people, who tend to have milder symptoms, the median age could rise again, resulting in more serious illnesses in elderly populations.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered bans on sports games among friends and parties in closed spaces. Private gatherings at homes with more than six people who do not live together are also discouraged.
Like other European countries, Italy is also limiting nightlife, with bars and restaurants having to close at midnight, and drinking while standing at a bar banned after 9pm.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Italy made wearing masks mandatory outdoors last week, a requirement already in place in Spain, Turkey, India and a handful of other Asian countries. Elsewhere in Europe, such mandates are in effect in hotspot cities like Paris, Brussels and Pristina, Kosovo, and are being introduced in several German cities.
www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40063952.html
French govt says curfews on the table as ministers mull new Covid-19 measures
www.rt.com/news/503323-france-curfew-coronavirus-restrictions/
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--The Next Couple Of Months Are Crucial For U.S. Oil

The U.S. oil industry faces a bumpy road to recovery from the steepest slump in oil demand in history .
Oil demand in the United States and elsewhere is still trailing below last year ’ s levels , while a growing number of indebted shale producers struggle to refinance debts at these low oil prices and file for bankruptcy protection to restructure debt loads .
Oil prices may remain lower for longer with global oil demand unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 , piling further pressure on the U.S. shale patch which , executives say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 46 a barrel to see a substantial increase in completions of drilled but uncompleted wells ( DUCs ) .
On top of the immediate financial concerns of many producers about profitability and debt levels , the U.S. oil industry also faces a shift in markets ’ perception about the sector with increased investor calls for decarbonization .
Then there is the possibility of a new U.S. Administration with a president Joe Biden , who has pledged to prioritize renewable energy and decarbonization and ban new oil and gas leases on federal land @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Administration adds another layer of uncertainty to the oil industry , which has already had to find a way to survive at $ 40 oil—by cutting capital expenditures and jobs and delaying investment decisions in growing production .
For U.S. consumers , gasoline prices at the start of October were at their lowest for this time of the year since 2016 .
For U.S. oil producers , the main reason for these lower gas prices—lower demand due to the pandemic—is a headwind for their operations and finances .
Until demand recovers , financially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ services companies will be in a survival mode and bankruptcies are expected to further grow .
“ Without any near term horizon hope for improving economic conditions for U.S. producers , it is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy before this year is over , ” law firm Haynes and Boone said in its regular report on oil patch bankruptcies with data through August 31 .
“ The global oil suppliers of the world ( OPEC , Russia , shale producers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market in the $ 40 to $ 50 per barrel range .
Only the most fit operators and service companies will survive , especially in the U.S. oil patch , ” an E & P firm executive said in comments to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey carried out in mid-September .
Most executives—66 percent—of 154 E & P firms said they believe U.S. oil production has peaked , the survey showed .
A sustained recovery of activity will need prices at least $ 6 a barrel higher than the current WTI level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the completion of DUCs is likely to come if oil prices rise to at least $ 46 a barrel , the majority of executives said in the survey .
“ Oil prices are currently too low to sustain replacement drilling .
This is by design I suspect .
There will be no recovery as long as oil demand remains depressed , ” another executive said in the survey .
“ We are anxiously awaiting the fall redeterminations for shale players .
We believe strongly that banks and operators will have to face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bankruptcies and asset sales .
Banks will likely recover less than 35 cents of each $ 1 loaned , ” another response reads .
“ We suspect that low prices and producers struggling to source financing will mean that US oil output won ’ t recover to pre-virus levels by end-2022 , if it ever does , ” Capital Economics said in a recent report .
Demand for oil could be depressed not only because of the pandemic and a possible lasting shift in consumer behavior but also because of a possible new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Biden plan to tighten carbon emission and fuel economy standards while expanding the availability of renewables would depress the demand for oil , which would accelerate carbon transition risks for the industry in the short term , ” Moody ’ s said in report last week .
U.S. executives expressed concerns about a Biden presidency in the Dallas Fed survey , with one saying “ The November election could severely impair the long-term success of my business if Biden is elected , ” and another ominously predicting “ A Biden administration would @ @ @ @ @ @

By Tsvetana Paraskova
The U.S. oil industry faces a bumpy road to recovery from the steepest slump in oil demand in history.
Oil demand in the United States and elsewhere is still trailing below last year’s levels, while a growing number of indebted shale producers struggle to refinance debts at these low oil prices and file for bankruptcy protection to restructure debt loads.
Oil prices may remain lower for longer with global oil demand unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, piling further pressure on the U.S. shale patch which, executives say, will need WTI Crude prices above $46 a barrel to see a substantial increase in completions of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs).
On top of the immediate financial concerns of many producers about profitability and debt levels, the U.S. oil industry also faces a shift in markets’ perception about the sector with increased investor calls for decarbonization.
Then there is the possibility of a new U.S. Administration with a president Joe Biden, who has pledged to prioritize renewable energy and decarbonization and ban new oil and gas leases on federal land.
The energy policy of the U.S. Administration adds another layer of uncertainty to the oil industry, which has already had to find a way to survive at $40 oil—by cutting capital expenditures and jobs and delaying investment decisions in growing production.
For U.S. consumers, gasoline prices at the start of October were at their lowest for this time of the year since 2016. For U.S. oil producers, the main reason for these lower gas prices—lower demand due to the pandemic—is a headwind for their operations and finances. Until demand recovers, financially weaker exploration and production firms and oilfield services companies will be in a survival mode and bankruptcies are expected to further grow.
“Without any near term horizon hope for improving economic conditions for U.S. producers, it is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy before this year is over,” law firm Haynes and Boone said in its regular report on oil patch bankruptcies with data through August 31.
“The global oil suppliers of the world (OPEC, Russia, shale producers) have enough oil to bring to market in the $40 to $50 per barrel range. Only the most fit operators and service companies will survive, especially in the U.S. oil patch,” an E&P firm executive said in comments to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey carried out in mid-September.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Most executives—66 percent—of 154 E&P firms said they believe U.S. oil production has peaked, the survey showed.
A sustained recovery of activity will need prices at least $6 a barrel higher than the current WTI level of $40.
A substantial increase in the completion of DUCs is likely to come if oil prices rise to at least $46 a barrel, the majority of executives said in the survey.
“Oil prices are currently too low to sustain replacement drilling. This is by design I suspect. There will be no recovery as long as oil demand remains depressed,” another executive said in the survey.
“We are anxiously awaiting the fall redeterminations for shale players. We believe strongly that banks and operators will have to face reality, which will lead to widespread bankruptcies and asset sales. Banks will likely recover less than 35 cents of each $1 loaned,” another response reads.
“We suspect that low prices and producers struggling to source financing will mean that US oil output won’t recover to pre-virus levels by end-2022, if it ever does,” Capital Economics said in a recent report.
Demand for oil could be depressed not only because of the pandemic and a possible lasting shift in consumer behavior but also because of a possible new Administration in the White House.
“The Biden plan to tighten carbon emission and fuel economy standards while expanding the availability of renewables would depress the demand for oil, which would accelerate carbon transition risks for the industry in the short term,” Moody’s said in report last week.
U.S. executives expressed concerns about a Biden presidency in the Dallas Fed survey, with one saying “The November election could severely impair the long-term success of my business if Biden is elected,” and another ominously predicting “A Biden administration would absolutely kill our industry.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--Meanwhile, in Wuhan and in Sweden…

Meanwhile, in Wuhan and in Sweden…

As the West enters the second phase with even more stringent blockades , in Wuhan this past weekend , this @ @ @ @ @ by the DJs ' official TikTok account .
pic.twitter.com/eAQZO1wRmc

As the West enters the second phase with even more stringent blockades, in Wuhan this past weekend, this has happened. Video posted by the DJs' official TikTok account. pic.twitter.com/eAQZO1wRmc
— TAFKAG (@tafkag) October 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-14--UK labour market data confirm that we are in an economic depression

Today has brought news that adds to my contention that the UK is experiencing an economic depression right now .
We have to look deeper than the conventional signals because tight now some of them are not working .
For example the official unemployment definition set by the International Labor Organisation or ILO is missing the target by quite a lot .
To use a football analogy if they took a shot at goal they not only miss it but they miss the stand as well .
This is why .
As we stand that covers approximately an extra 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared to what are being reported as unemployed as you can see below .
This can be misleading for the unwary and I note that the BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam has failed to note this development .
If you actually think the UK unemployment rate is either 4.5 % or 5 % then I have a bridge to sell you .
Poor old Faisal looks completely lost at sea .
It is in reality as I shall explain high but recently has fallen so he is wrong in every respect .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK labour market is provided here which looks through the issue of the furlough scheme muddying the waters .
Let us start with the better part of it which shows a post lockdown ( which just in case we should now call Lockdown 1.0 ) improvement .
However the overall picture is of a 15 % fall in hours worked .
Because is we look back to this time last year ( June to August for this purpose ) the number of hours worked was 1.049.2 million .
Sadly we get little detail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now and the maths is mine .
The bit below hides more than it reveals .
These provide another clear signal as we note this .
Redundancies increased in June to August 2020 by 113,000 on the year , and a record 114,000 on the quarter , to 227,000 .
The annual increase was the largest since April to June 2009 , with the number of redundancies reaching its highest level since May to July 2009 .
So in round terms the rate of redundancies has doubled .
There is also a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The tax data gives us another insight .
As you can see these numbers are much more timely than the other labour market data which only reach March .
It also shows much more of a change than the unemployment numbers but is still undermined somewhat by the existence of the furlough scheme .
There will be payrolled employees who are being subsidised by the furlough scheme until the end of October .
These are giving the same signal as we note this .
So pay growth is no longer negative as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay and bonuses .
This compares to where we were pre pandemic as shown below .
We saw wages fall and now they are flatlining .
This means that in real terms they are doing this according to the official release .
So if we use a better inflation measure we see that real wages are falling by a bit more than 1 % per annum .
This means we are even further below the pre credit crunch peak as we note that this measure has experienced its own version of a Japanese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hide a few things as we note some substantial shifts within them .
We can learn more from the August data if we look at it as a single month .
This is because wages rose from £531 per week to £550 meaning that they were 1.9 % higher than a year before .
A fair bit of this was the finance sector which saw weekly wages rise by £32 to £721 .
However there was also welcome news for construction up by £12 to £631 and the hospitality sector where they rose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at properly today ’ s UK labour market release confirms the prognosis of the economic growth or GDP release from Friday .
It is not that we lack some green shoots as the August wage data is one and this from the PAYE numbers adds to it albeit is too good to be true right now .
But on the other side of the coin the annual fall in hours worked correlates with the decline in GDP we have seen pretty well .
I hope that we can get through this more quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that these are falls of a size which indicate an economic depression .
If reality is too much then you can take a Matrix style blue pill and follow the BBC reporting a 4.5 % unemployment rate .
As a caveat all of these numbers are subject to wider margins of error right now .
You may be surprised how few are surveyed for the main data source At the moment that will be less representative because in switching to a telephone based system they discovered a change that seems too big @ @ @ @

by Shaun Richards
Today has brought news that adds to my contention that the UK is experiencing an economic depression right now. We have to look deeper than the conventional signals because tight now some of them are not working. For example the official unemployment definition set by the International Labor Organisation or ILO is missing the target by quite a lot. To use a football analogy if they took a shot at goal they not only miss it but they miss the stand as well. This is why.
Under this definition, employment includes both those who are in work during the reference period and those who are temporarily away from a job. The number of people who are estimated to be temporarily away from work includes furloughed workers, those on maternity or paternity leave and annual leave.
As we stand that covers approximately an extra 4 million people which is a huge number compared to what are being reported as unemployed as you can see below.
Estimates for June to August 2020 show an estimated 1.52 million people were unemployed, 209,000 more than a year earlier and 138,000 more than the previous quarter.
This can be misleading for the unwary and I note that the BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam has failed to note this development.
Sharp spike up in unemployment rate to 4.5%, above 1.5 million, after revisions and the headline numbers finally catching up with grim reality. Suggests monthly number in August as furlough unwound around 5%.
If you actually think the UK unemployment rate is either 4.5% or 5% then I have a bridge to sell you. Poor old Faisal looks completely lost at sea.
Unemployment still low by historic (3 year high) and international standards – but on way up…
It is in reality as I shall explain high but recently has fallen so he is wrong in every respect.
Hours Worked
The actual signal of a depression in the UK labour market is provided here which looks through the issue of the furlough scheme muddying the waters. Let us start with the better part of it which shows a post lockdown ( which just in case we should now call Lockdown 1.0) improvement.
Between March to May 2020 and June to August 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK saw a record increase of 20.0 million, or 2.3%, to 891.0 million hours. Average actual weekly hours worked saw a record increase of 0.7 hours on the quarter to 27.3 hours.
However the overall picture is of a 15% fall in hours worked. Because is we look back to this time last year ( June to August for this purpose) the number of hours worked was 1.049.2 million. Sadly we get little detail on what is the most significant number right now and the maths is mine. The bit below hides more than it reveals.
Although decreasing over the year, total hours worked had a record increase on the quarter, with the June to August period covering a time when a number of coronavirus lockdown measures were eased.
Redundancies
These provide another clear signal as we note this.
Redundancies increased in June to August 2020 by 113,000 on the year, and a record 114,000 on the quarter, to 227,000. The annual increase was the largest since April to June 2009, with the number of redundancies reaching its highest level since May to July 2009.
So in round terms the rate of redundancies has doubled. There is also a hint that things are also getting worse.
The redundancies estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews; it does not take into consideration planned redundancies.
Pay as You Earn ( PAYE)
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The tax data gives us another insight.
Early estimates for September 2020 indicate that there were 28.3 million payrolled employees, a fall of 2.2% compared with the same period in the previous year and a decline of 629,000 people over the 12-month period. Compared with the previous month, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.1% in September 2020 – equivalent to 20,000 people.
As you can see these numbers are much more timely than the other labour market data which only reach March. It also shows much more of a change than the unemployment numbers but is still undermined somewhat by the existence of the furlough scheme. There will be payrolled employees who are being subsidised by the furlough scheme until the end of October.
Wages
These are giving the same signal as we note this.
In June to August 2020, the rate of annual pay growth was unchanged for total pay but positive 0.8% for regular pay. The difference between the two measures is because of subdued bonuses, which fell by an average negative 15.3% (in nominal terms) in the three months June to August 2020.
So pay growth is no longer negative as we note an unsurprising divergence between regular pay and bonuses. This compares to where we were pre pandemic as shown below.
The rate of growth stood at 2.9% in December 2019 to February 2020 immediately prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic,
We saw wages fall and now they are flatlining. This means that in real terms they are doing this according to the official release.
In real terms, total pay is growing at a slower rate than inflation, at negative 0.8%. Regular pay growth in real terms is now positive, at 0.1%.
So if we use a better inflation measure we see that real wages are falling by a bit more than 1% per annum. This means we are even further below the pre credit crunch peak as we note that this measure has experienced its own version of a Japanese style lost decade.
The aggregate numbers hide a few things as we note some substantial shifts within them.
The public sector saw the highest estimated growth, at 4.1% for regular pay. Negative growth was seen in the construction sector, estimated at negative 5.3%, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector, estimated at negative 1.8%, and the manufacturing sector, estimated at negative 0.9%. This is, however, an improvement over the growth rates during May to July 2020.
We can learn more from the August data if we look at it as a single month. This is because wages rose from £531 per week to £550 meaning that they were 1.9% higher than a year before. A fair bit of this was the finance sector which saw weekly wages rise by £32 to £721. However there was also welcome news for construction up by £12 to £631 and the hospitality sector where they rose £8 to £364 per week.
Comment
Looking at properly today’s UK labour market release confirms the prognosis of the economic growth or GDP release from Friday. It is not that we lack some green shoots as the August wage data is one and this from the PAYE numbers adds to it albeit is too good to be true right now.
Early estimates for September 2020 indicate that median monthly pay increased to £1,905, an increase of 4.3% compared with the same period of the previous year.
But on the other side of the coin the annual fall in hours worked correlates with the decline in GDP we have seen pretty well. I hope that we can get through this more quickly than in the past but the reality is that these are falls of a size which indicate an economic depression. If reality is too much then you can take a Matrix style blue pill and follow the BBC reporting a 4.5% unemployment rate.
As a caveat all of these numbers are subject to wider margins of error right now. You may be surprised how few are surveyed for the main data source
One key data source for understanding the UK labour market is the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which usually covers around 35,000 households a quarter.
At the moment that will be less representative because in switching to a telephone based system they discovered a change that seems too big to be true.
Back in February around 67 per cent of households in their first interview in the LFS sample were owner occupiers and 32 per cent were renters. But in July this was around 77 per cent and 21 per cent respectively……… For tomorrow’s release we will therefore reweight the estimates so that the shares of owner occupiers and renters are the same as before the pandemic hit in March.


investmentwatchblog--2020-10-15--Goodbye Middle Class: Half Of All American Workers Made Less Than $34,248.45 Last Year

If you are making less than $ 3,000 a month , you have plenty of company , because about half of the country is in the exact same boat .
The Social Security Administration just released new wage statistics for 2019 , and they are pretty startling .
To me , the most alarming thing in the entire report is the fact that the median yearly wage was just $ 34,248.45 last year .
In other words , half of all American workers made less than $ 34,248.45 in 2019 , and half of all American workers made more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a whole lot of money .
In fact , when you divide $ 34,248.45 by 12 you get just $ 2,854.05 .
Needless to say , it is not easy to survive in America today on just $ 2,854.05 a month , and this may help to explain why we have been seeing so many people fall out of the middle class in recent years .
And of course all of the figures that I am sharing with you in this article are just for 2019 .
This year , we have seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims for unemployment benefits as the U.S. economy has imploded during this pandemic , and so the final wage numbers for 2020 could be quite a bit worse than the numbers for 2019 were .
Please keep that in mind as you go through the rest of this article .
Once upon a time in America , a single income could easily support a middle class household in most cases , but those days are long gone .
The cost of living has been rising far faster than our paychecks have , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working themselves to the bone just to survive financially from month to month .
To give you an idea of just how bad things have gotten , I would like to share with you some key numbers from the report that the Social Security Administration just released… -32.26 percent of American workers made less than $ 20,000 last year .
-44.79 percent of American workers made less than $ 30,000 last year .
-56.46 percent of American workers made less than $ 40,000 last year .
-65.91 percent of American workers made less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the poverty level for a household of five in the United States is $ 30,680 .
That means that close to half of all workers in this country do not even make enough to get a family of five above the poverty level .
There are tens of millions of Americans that are referred to as “ the working poor ” because they are living in poverty even though they are employed and are working extremely hard .
Many of you that are reading this article know exactly what I am talking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way more than 40 hours a week , and yet there never seems to be enough money at the end of the month .
Sadly , the truth is that our system has evolved in a manner that makes it almost impossible for most Americans to ever build up much wealth .
If you are making the median monthly wage of just $ 2,854.05 , there simply is not going to be much left over after all of the bills are paid .
First of all , you are going to need some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the country you may be able to find something habitable for under $ 1,000 a month , but in most of our major metropolitan areas that simply is not going to be realistic .
Secondly , you are going to need to pay your utility bills .
If you can keep the combined cost of your power , water , phone , television and Internet bills to about $ 250 a month , you are doing quite well .
Thirdly , you will need a vehicle in order to get around , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy or lease a vehicle for less than $ 300 a month .
In addition , you will also need insurance , and that will set you back even more .
Fourthly , you will need health insurance .
If you are young and single , maybe you can find a plan for just a few hundred dollars a month , but most Americans pay far more .
Fifthly , you will probably want to eat , and that will cost you several hundred dollars a month as well .
At this point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gone , and there are so many expenses that I haven ’ t even mentioned yet .
And of course you never even started with $ 2,854.05 in the first place , because all sorts of taxes were taken out of your paycheck before you even got it .
Are you starting to understand why so many families in America are deeply , deeply struggling today ?
We have an economy that works for those at the very top of the food chain , but pretty much everyone else is desperately trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entered an economic downturn during which tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs .
According to John Williams of shadowstats.com , if honest numbers were being used the real unemployment rate in the U.S. would be 26.9 percent right now , and that would rival the worst levels that we witnessed during the Great Depression of the 1930s .
Others have come up with similar numbers .
For example , Axios is reporting that the “ true unemployment rate ” in the United States is currently 26.1 percent… No matter how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone should be able to agree that millions upon millions of Americans are really hurting financially and are deeply concerned about the future .
And they have good reason to be concerned about the future , because our economic system is in the process of imploding .
For decades , the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world allowed us to enjoy a level of debt-fueled prosperity that was far greater than we actually deserved .
Now the party is ending , and our society is going to experience an enormous @ @ @ @ @ @ @

by Michael Snyder
If you are making less than $3,000 a month, you have plenty of company, because about half of the country is in the exact same boat. The Social Security Administration just released new wage statistics for 2019, and they are pretty startling. To me, the most alarming thing in the entire report is the fact that the median yearly wage was just $34,248.45 last year. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $34,248.45 in 2019, and half of all American workers made more than $34,248.45. That isn’t a whole lot of money. In fact, when you divide $34,248.45 by 12 you get just $2,854.05. Needless to say, it is not easy to survive in America today on just $2,854.05 a month, and this may help to explain why we have been seeing so many people fall out of the middle class in recent years.
And of course all of the figures that I am sharing with you in this article are just for 2019. This year, we have seen more than 63 million Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits as the U.S. economy has imploded during this pandemic, and so the final wage numbers for 2020 could be quite a bit worse than the numbers for 2019 were. Please keep that in mind as you go through the rest of this article.
Once upon a time in America, a single income could easily support a middle class household in most cases, but those days are long gone.
The cost of living has been rising far faster than our paychecks have, and as a result many Americans have been working themselves to the bone just to survive financially from month to month.
To give you an idea of just how bad things have gotten, I would like to share with you some key numbers from the report that the Social Security Administration just released…
-32.26 percent of American workers made less than $20,000 last year.
-44.79 percent of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.
-56.46 percent of American workers made less than $40,000 last year.
-65.91 percent of American workers made less than $50,000 last year.
Today, the poverty level for a household of five in the United States is $30,680.
That means that close to half of all workers in this country do not even make enough to get a family of five above the poverty level.
Wow.
There are tens of millions of Americans that are referred to as “the working poor” because they are living in poverty even though they are employed and are working extremely hard. Many of you that are reading this article know exactly what I am talking about. Some of you are working way more than 40 hours a week, and yet there never seems to be enough money at the end of the month.
Sadly, the truth is that our system has evolved in a manner that makes it almost impossible for most Americans to ever build up much wealth.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you are making the median monthly wage of just $2,854.05, there simply is not going to be much left over after all of the bills are paid. First of all, you are going to need some place to live. In the middle of the country you may be able to find something habitable for under $1,000 a month, but in most of our major metropolitan areas that simply is not going to be realistic.
Secondly, you are going to need to pay your utility bills. If you can keep the combined cost of your power, water, phone, television and Internet bills to about $250 a month, you are doing quite well.
Thirdly, you will need a vehicle in order to get around, and these days it is hard to buy or lease a vehicle for less than $300 a month. In addition, you will also need insurance, and that will set you back even more.
Fourthly, you will need health insurance. If you are young and single, maybe you can find a plan for just a few hundred dollars a month, but most Americans pay far more.
Fifthly, you will probably want to eat, and that will cost you several hundred dollars a month as well.
At this point almost all of your money is already gone, and there are so many expenses that I haven’t even mentioned yet.
And of course you never even started with $2,854.05 in the first place, because all sorts of taxes were taken out of your paycheck before you even got it.
Are you starting to understand why so many families in America are deeply, deeply struggling today?
We have an economy that works for those at the very top of the food chain, but pretty much everyone else is desperately trying to stay afloat.
And now we have entered an economic downturn during which tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were being used the real unemployment rate in the U.S. would be 26.9 percent right now, and that would rival the worst levels that we witnessed during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Others have come up with similar numbers. For example, Axios is reporting that the “true unemployment rate” in the United States is currently 26.1 percent…
A person who is looking for a full-time job that pays a living wage — but who can’t find one — is unemployed. If you accept that definition, the true unemployment rate in the U.S. is a stunning 26.1%, according to an important new dataset shared exclusively with “Axios on HBO.”
No matter how you want to crunch the numbers, everyone should be able to agree that millions upon millions of Americans are really hurting financially and are deeply concerned about the future.
And they have good reason to be concerned about the future, because our economic system is in the process of imploding.
For decades, the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world allowed us to enjoy a level of debt-fueled prosperity that was far greater than we actually deserved.
Now the party is ending, and our society is going to experience an enormous amount of pain as everything changes.