investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Understanding inflation/deflation going forward

For all the talk of runaway inflation that gets the silvertards like myself excited , the truth is that since 2008 , our world has been largely deflationary .
Certain assets have had hyperinflation – stocks , education , health care , and limited supply goods of the rich ( Central Park penthouses , wines , art , etc . )
, but that has masked pretty wide spread deflation in the cost of most manufactured goods .
For the average Joe then , the world has been mildly deflationary .
But I think it is changing now , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here understands what ’ s happening .
Let ’ s start with the change .
The federal government looks like it is going to start handing out stimulus checks like comedy club coupons in Times Square .
This is a major change .
Except for Trump ’ s tax cut , governments haven ’ t been handing out money much in the past few decades to the regular folks .
But now we have the biggest handout in USG history , and it feels like it might be first of many .
Why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed been printing money ?
For all the talk of printing money , the Fed doesn ’ t actually print money .
It artificially lowers the cost of credit , which encourages people to borrow money to expand , which creates a temporary positive economic blip .
But because the Fed has forced the cost of money below it ’ s natural rate , a lot of the investment is malinvestment ( unnecessary or inherently unprofitable ) and those losses eventually destroy the equity and leave only the debt service .
Now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed to service this debt ( even at a lower interest rate since there is so much debt ) , which is deflationary .
Asset values benefit from the higher leverage available , but for everything else , deflation .
But if we are now looking at a federal government actually handing out fiat scrip , that is different dynamic .
It is inflationary .
The Fed will be involved – they will immediately buy new Treasury paper – but with the two bodies effectively working as a team , it will not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Treasury had their own printer to roll out fresh scrip .
This is money flowing directly into the hands of citizens .
They will go straight out and buy stuff .
They will buy IPhones and sneakers and vacations and swimming pools .
For those goods that have fairly elastic manufacturing capability , manufacturing will ramp and the inflation will show up in the underlying commodity prices .
For those goods that have inelastic manufacturing capability , a lot of fresh money will be chasing a limited pool of goods , causing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Either way , it will be inflationary .
Again , this is all contingent upon the USG starting to hand out stimulus every where , but considering how little push back there has been to the stimulus so far , I don ’ t see that stopping .
If it does , deflation .
If it continues and expands , which I think it will , inflation .
So watch the federal government and take your cues from there .
Personally , I think the government gets trapped giving stimulus in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adding more stimulus every time we start to go down ( kind of like the dynamic with the Fed since 2008 , stepping in at any sign of a downturn ) .
They are required to add bigger and bigger infusions , and they lose any sense of discipline .
Inflation gets out of control , and no one in power , at the Fed or USG , has the backbone to stop it .
This is my default case .
My price target on silver in this case is around $ 350 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision .

by Zalinsky
For all the talk of runaway inflation that gets the silvertards like myself excited, the truth is that since 2008, our world has been largely deflationary. Certain assets have had hyperinflation – stocks, education, health care, and limited supply goods of the rich (Central Park penthouses, wines, art, etc.), but that has masked pretty wide spread deflation in the cost of most manufactured goods.
For the average Joe then, the world has been mildly deflationary. But I think it is changing now, and I want to make sure everyone on here understands what’s happening.
Let’s start with the change. The federal government looks like it is going to start handing out stimulus checks like comedy club coupons in Times Square. This is a major change. Except for Trump’s tax cut, governments haven’t been handing out money much in the past few decades to the regular folks. But now we have the biggest handout in USG history, and it feels like it might be first of many.
Why is this different? Hasn’t the Fed been printing money?
For all the talk of printing money, the Fed doesn’t actually print money. It artificially lowers the cost of credit, which encourages people to borrow money to expand, which creates a temporary positive economic blip. But because the Fed has forced the cost of money below it’s natural rate, a lot of the investment is malinvestment (unnecessary or inherently unprofitable) and those losses eventually destroy the equity and leave only the debt service. Now more of the reduced overall income is needed to service this debt (even at a lower interest rate since there is so much debt), which is deflationary. Asset values benefit from the higher leverage available, but for everything else, deflation.
But if we are now looking at a federal government actually handing out fiat scrip, that is different dynamic. It is inflationary. The Fed will be involved – they will immediately buy new Treasury paper – but with the two bodies effectively working as a team, it will not be much different in effect than if the Treasury had their own printer to roll out fresh scrip.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This is money flowing directly into the hands of citizens. They will go straight out and buy stuff. They will buy IPhones and sneakers and vacations and swimming pools. For those goods that have fairly elastic manufacturing capability, manufacturing will ramp and the inflation will show up in the underlying commodity prices. For those goods that have inelastic manufacturing capability, a lot of fresh money will be chasing a limited pool of goods, causing the price of those goods to rise.
Either way, it will be inflationary.
Again, this is all contingent upon the USG starting to hand out stimulus every where, but considering how little push back there has been to the stimulus so far, I don’t see that stopping.
If it does, deflation. If it continues and expands, which I think it will, inflation. So watch the federal government and take your cues from there.
Personally, I think the government gets trapped giving stimulus in a failing economy and is forced to keep adding more stimulus every time we start to go down (kind of like the dynamic with the Fed since 2008, stepping in at any sign of a downturn). They are required to add bigger and bigger infusions, and they lose any sense of discipline. Inflation gets out of control, and no one in power, at the Fed or USG, has the backbone to stop it.
This is my default case. My price target on silver in this case is around $350.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Why We Won’t See An Oil War In The South China Sea

Barrels of ink have been spilled covering the geopolitical conflicts in the South China Sea over the past few years , with plenty of speculation over whether these diplomatic tensions could explode into genuine warfare as China pushes further and further into the territory .
The disputed area includes both islands and maritime areas that are the subject of contentious claims on the part of Brunei , Taiwan , Indonesia , Malaysia , the Philippines , and Vietnam .
The main source of these tensions has arisen from China ’ s continued military presence in foreign waters and dubious claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other sovereign nations .
The reason ?
The usual : oil .
Just last month , though overshadowed by the pandemic ’ s endless news cycle , the South China Sea burst back into headlines as the geopolitical tensions in the region heated up , in no small part thanks to U.S. involvement .
An article by Asia Times , entitled “ Oil and gas fueling South China Sea tensions ” reports that “ Vietnam ’ s crucial offshore energy industry is being squeezed as US-China tensions rise in the South China Sea.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ any geopolitical skirmish worth its salt , Russia is also involved in the most recent conflict .
According to Asia Times , “ China is pressing for the termination of a Vietnamese offshore development with Rosneft Vietnam , a joint Russia-Vietnam venture that recently canceled its contract for London-based Noble Corp ’ s semi-submersible exploration rig.
” But while these oversteps and complex international tensions , which have only become exacerbated by the economic crisis spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic , have led to much speculation about an impending oil war , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week says that these concerns are overblown .
While the confrontations spurred by China ’ s repeated interference with Vietnamese and Malaysian oil and natural gas exploration in the South China Sea “ have prompted concerns that they could provoke a larger military conflict , especially as China exploits the unsteadiness created by the coronavirus to become more aggressive in its various international territorial disputes , ” columnist Emily Meierding says that it ’ s highly unlikely that this will come to pass .
“ Happily , ” Meierding writes , “ the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neighbors are unlikely to escalate their energy sparring .
Contrary to the overheated rhetoric , countries do not actually ‘ take the oil , ’ to use President Trump ’ s controversial and inaccurate phrase .
Instead , my recent research demonstrates that countries avoid fighting for oil resources.
” And that historical record referenced by Meierding is as robust as it is lengthy .
Not just in China , but around the world , resource-rich territories have been breeding grounds for geopolitical tensions virtually as long as there have been civilizations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ along with the industrial revolution .
“ Between 1912 and 2010 , countries fought 180 times over territories that contained—or were believed to contain—oil or natural gas resources , ” Meierding writes , citing specific clashes and so-called oil wars from World War II to the Falklands War .
“ However , a closer look at these conflicts reveals that none merits the classic ‘ oil war ’ label .
Although countries did fight over oil-endowed territories , they usually fought for other reasons , including aspirations to regional hegemony , domestic politics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ territories ’ other strategic , economic , or symbolic assets .
Oil was an uncommon trigger for international confrontations and never caused major conflicts.
” Oil , in other words , is undoubtedly a factor in these conflicts , but rarely , if ever , the factor .
Why ?
“ In fact , classic oil wars are extraordinarily costly , ” the op-ed argues .
“ A country that aims to seize foreign oil faces , first , the costs of invading another country .
International aggression is destructive and expensive under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also damage the oil infrastructure that a conqueror hopes to acquire .
Next , if a conqueror plans to exploit oil resources over the long term , it faces the costs of occupying seized territory .
As the United States has learned from its ‘ endless wars , ’ foreign occupation is extremely challenging , even for the world ’ s most powerful country.
” If this argument holds water , and if China has learned anything from this long historical record , or has any vested interest in self-preservation during this particularly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conflict in the South China Sea will remain just that–a series of skirmishes and tensions–and will not fester into the all-out war that looms in the headlines .

By Haley Zaremba
Barrels of ink have been spilled covering the geopolitical conflicts in the South China Sea over the past few years, with plenty of speculation over whether these diplomatic tensions could explode into genuine warfare as China pushes further and further into the territory. The disputed area includes both islands and maritime areas that are the subject of contentious claims on the part of Brunei, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The main source of these tensions has arisen from China’s continued military presence in foreign waters and dubious claims to land and sea that belong to other sovereign nations. The reason? The usual: oil. Just last month, though overshadowed by the pandemic’s endless news cycle, the South China Sea burst back into headlines as the geopolitical tensions in the region heated up, in no small part thanks to U.S. involvement. An article by Asia Times, entitled “Oil and gas fueling South China Sea tensions” reports that “Vietnam’s crucial offshore energy industry is being squeezed as US-China tensions rise in the South China Sea.”
Source: CSIS
Not to be left out of any geopolitical skirmish worth its salt, Russia is also involved in the most recent conflict. According to Asia Times, “China is pressing for the termination of a Vietnamese offshore development with Rosneft Vietnam, a joint Russia-Vietnam venture that recently canceled its contract for London-based Noble Corp’s semi-submersible exploration rig.”
But while these oversteps and complex international tensions, which have only become exacerbated by the economic crisis spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, have led to much speculation about an impending oil war, a foreign policy op-ed published by Lawfare this week says that these concerns are overblown.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
While the confrontations spurred by China’s repeated interference with Vietnamese and Malaysian oil and natural gas exploration in the South China Sea “have prompted concerns that they could provoke a larger military conflict, especially as China exploits the unsteadiness created by the coronavirus to become more aggressive in its various international territorial disputes,” columnist Emily Meierding says that it’s highly unlikely that this will come to pass.
“Happily,” Meierding writes, “the historical record indicates that China and its neighbors are unlikely to escalate their energy sparring. Contrary to the overheated rhetoric, countries do not actually ‘take the oil,’ to use President Trump’s controversial and inaccurate phrase. Instead, my recent research demonstrates that countries avoid fighting for oil resources.”
And that historical record referenced by Meierding is as robust as it is lengthy. Not just in China, but around the world, resource-rich territories have been breeding grounds for geopolitical tensions virtually as long as there have been civilizations, a phenomenon which went on to explode along with the industrial revolution. “Between 1912 and 2010, countries fought 180 times over territories that contained—or were believed to contain—oil or natural gas resources,” Meierding writes, citing specific clashes and so-called oil wars from World War II to the Falklands War. “However, a closer look at these conflicts reveals that none merits the classic ‘oil war’ label. Although countries did fight over oil-endowed territories, they usually fought for other reasons, including aspirations to regional hegemony, domestic politics, national pride, or the contested territories’ other strategic, economic, or symbolic assets. Oil was an uncommon trigger for international confrontations and never caused major conflicts.”
Oil, in other words, is undoubtedly a factor in these conflicts, but rarely, if ever, the factor. Why? “In fact, classic oil wars are extraordinarily costly,” the op-ed argues. “A country that aims to seize foreign oil faces, first, the costs of invading another country. International aggression is destructive and expensive under the best of circumstances. It may also damage the oil infrastructure that a conqueror hopes to acquire. Next, if a conqueror plans to exploit oil resources over the long term, it faces the costs of occupying seized territory. As the United States has learned from its ‘endless wars,’ foreign occupation is extremely challenging, even for the world’s most powerful country.”
If this argument holds water, and if China has learned anything from this long historical record, or has any vested interest in self-preservation during this particularly vulnerable chapter in world history, the conflict in the South China Sea will remain just that–a series of skirmishes and tensions–and will not fester into the all-out war that looms in the headlines.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Exxon To Halt Employee Savings Plan Match To Cut Costs

U.S. oil supermajor ExxonMobil will start suspending the employer match to the retirement savings plans of its employees in October , people who received the notification told Reuters .
Kevin Steele , News Anchor at KBMT TV , posted on Facebook a photo of a message from Exxon referring to the suspension of the company ’ s contributions to the 401K Savings Plan .
“ Given the current business environment , the corporation is taking steps to reduce costs , ” says Exxon ’ s message , seen by Reuters .
“ The company intends to suspend the company match @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Plan for all employees covered by the Savings Plan , effective around Oct. 1 , 2020 , ” the supermajor said .
Exxon currently matches a 6-percent contribution by an employee with a contribution that is equal to 7 percent of the salary of the employee .
Exxon ’ s Senior Vice President Neil Chapman said on the earnings call last week after the supermajor posted its second consecutive quarterly loss and the worst loss in its modern history that Exxon is targeting “ savings coming from a wide range of activities including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , lower material and service costs and work process improvements to reduce support and overhead costs.
” Despite the losses this year , Exxon is not cutting its dividend and is seeking cuts elsewhere .
European majors such as Shell , BP , Eni , and Equinor have already slashed their dividends after the oil price collapse , but Exxon , and the other U.S. supermajor Chevron , are not sacrificing their dividends .
“ We have a long history of providing a reliable and growing dividend .
A large portion of our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dividend as a source of stability in their income , and we take that very seriously .
While we manage our capital allocation priorities over the long term , we also recognize the need to balance in the near term to respond to market conditions , ” Chapman said on the earnings call .

By Charles Kennedy
U.S. oil supermajor ExxonMobil will start suspending the employer match to the retirement savings plans of its employees in October, people who received the notification told Reuters.
Kevin Steele, News Anchor at KBMT TV, posted on Facebook a photo of a message from Exxon referring to the suspension of the company’s contributions to the 401K Savings Plan.
“Given the current business environment, the corporation is taking steps to reduce costs,” says Exxon’s message, seen by Reuters.
“The company intends to suspend the company match contribution to the U.S. Exxon Mobil Savings Plan for all employees covered by the Savings Plan, effective around Oct. 1, 2020,” the supermajor said.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Exxon currently matches a 6-percent contribution by an employee with a contribution that is equal to 7 percent of the salary of the employee.
Exxon’s Senior Vice President Neil Chapman said on the earnings call last week after the supermajor posted its second consecutive quarterly loss and the worst loss in its modern history that Exxon is targeting “savings coming from a wide range of activities including lower unconventional activity, optimizing supply chains, lower material and service costs and work process improvements to reduce support and overhead costs.”
Despite the losses this year, Exxon is not cutting its dividend and is seeking cuts elsewhere. European majors such as Shell, BP, Eni, and Equinor have already slashed their dividends after the oil price collapse, but Exxon, and the other U.S. supermajor Chevron, are not sacrificing their dividends.
“We have a long history of providing a reliable and growing dividend. A large portion of our shareholder base has come to view that dividend as a source of stability in their income, and we take that very seriously. While we manage our capital allocation priorities over the long term, we also recognize the need to balance in the near term to respond to market conditions,” Chapman said on the earnings call.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--$500 SILVER IS NO LONGER THE JOKE YOU THOUGHT IT WAS

Longtime silver bull and creator of the Silver Shield series of coins , Chris Duane returns to SGT Report to @ @ @ @ @ bankers and the breakout of silver which is now threatening to break its Comex paper @ @ @ @ @ .

Chris Duane with Sean on SGTreport
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Longtime silver bull and creator of the Silver Shield series of coins, Chris Duane returns to SGT Report to discuss the madness of central bankers and the breakout of silver which is now threatening to break its Comex paper chains once and for all.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--The Bogus “Recovery” Narrative, Stress and Burnout

by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress .
We have all experienced the disorientation and “ brain freeze ” that stress triggers .
The pandemic and the responses to the pandemic have been continuous sources of stress , i.e .
chronic stress , which is the pathway to burnout , the collapse of our ability to cope with the burdens pressing on us .
Authorities keep promoting a bogus “ recovery ” narrative .
The disconnect between what the authorities are claiming and what people are actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contradictions lead to meltdown .
No wonder more and more people are “ losing it ” as their neural circuitry melts down under the strain of synthesizing what they experience ( crisis ) and what they ’ re told ( the “ recovery ” is already glorious and getting better every day ) .
In Survival+ I call this process derealization as our lived experience is derealized ( dismissed as not real ) by official spin and propaganda .
Research has illuminated how stress disrupts the default hierarchy of the brain .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ functions suppress the more primitive subconscious signals of aggression , hunger , etc .
in order to concentrate our effort to complete some planned activity .
Everyday Stress Can Shut Down the Brain ’ s Chief Command Center .
Neural circuits responsible for conscious self-control are highly vulnerable to even mild stress .
When they shut down , primal impulses go unchecked and mental paralysis sets in .
( Scientific American ; subscription required ) This helps explain the natural “ fight or flight ” response we feel when suddenly confronted with danger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it illuminates how we lose the ability to analyze circumstances rationally when we are “ stressed out.
” Once our rational analytic abilities are shut down , we are prone to making a series of ill-informed and rash decisions .
This has the potential to set up a destructive positive feedback loop : the more stressed out we become , the lower the quality of our decision-making , which then generates poor results that then stress us out even more , further degrading our already-impaired rational processes .
This feedback loop quickly leads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In pondering human development over the past 20,000 years of the transition from hunter-gatherer groups to modern life , it seems self-evident that stress was likely to be resolved in relatively short order in the hunter-gatherer lifestyle : everyone was known to everyone else , conflicts had to be resolved simply because the group survival depended on it , and most threats could be fended off with vigilance , weapons or left behind by a few hours of fast walking .
Contrast the ancient environment that selected for this stress/conscious self-control feedback @ @ @ @ @ @ @ urban life and work environment , stress is more or less constant and our ability to resolve stressful situations is limited because we control very little about the macro social-economic waters we ’ re navigating .
Though this particular article focuses on short-term stress , there is growing body of evidence that chronic stress has a number of subtle and destructive consequences .
In addition to the common-sense connection between chronic stress and hypertension , there is evidence that obesity is also related to stress-caused conditions such as inadequate sleep and chronic inflammation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hormones erode the immune system ’ s responsiveness .
Behaviorally , stress breaks down self-control , so it is no surprise that stress leads to bingeing , addictive behavior , impulse buying , etc.–all “ knock-on ” effects with negative consequences .
Chronic stress permanently degrades our ability to rationally analyze and plan , and so we act irrationally or erratically , as we are no longer able to stick to a conscious plan of coherent action .
With the rational mind and self-control centers permanently suppressed , we are prone to withdrawal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life .
This may help explain Americans ’ remarkable passivity as their civil liberties are taken away and their financial insecurity increases .
Many of the features of post-traumatic stress disorder ( PTSD ) are now visible in “ everyday Americans , ” and an understanding of how stress erodes rational thought and self-control helps explain why .
Even before the pandemic , over half of Americans reported that their stress level was usually high .
( see chart below ) We can guess that this already high percentage is now considerably higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receiving some form of unemployment and thousands of small businesses have closed .
Medical professionals were already burning out before the pandemic .
( see chart below ) What the status quo must cover up is the reality that the structure of our winner-take-most socio-economic system makes it unlivable , even for professionals ( or especially for professionals , in many cases ) .
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress : 1 ) Develop positive physical and mental responses via discipline , habit and practice ( for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ etc. )
.
2 ) Turn off the mainstream media and social media ( i.e .
eliminate deranging , destructive distractions ) .
3 ) Stay focused on our plans .
The simpler and more positive the plan , the more likely it is we can stay focused on it in stressful circumstances .
I laid out a context for my own planning in May .
Our Inevitable Collapse : We Can ’ t Save a Fragile Economy With Bailouts That Increase Fragility May 1 , 2020 Why Assets Will Crash May 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bug-Out Bunkers , Taoism and the Warring States May 5 , 2020 Surviving 2020 # 3 : Plans A , B and C May 7 , 2020 The Outlines of a Better World Are Emerging May 8 , 2020 Charles Hugh Smith on the disconnect between the Markets and the Economy ( 51 min ) Audiobook edition now available : Will You Be Richer or Poorer ?
: Profit , Power , and AI in a Traumatized World ( $ 13 ) ( Kindle $ 6.95 , print $ 11.95 ) Read the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Pathfinding our Destiny : Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ( $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 12 ( print ) , $ 13.08 ( audiobook ) : Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher : The Disappearance of Drake $ 1.29 ( Kindle ) , $ 8.95 ( print ) ; read the first chapters for free ( PDF ) Money and Work Unchained $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 15 ( print ) Read the first section @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you found value in this content , please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $ 1/month patron of my work via patreon.com .

by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress.
We have all experienced the disorientation and “brain freeze” that stress triggers. The pandemic and the responses to the pandemic have been continuous sources of stress, i.e. chronic stress, which is the pathway to burnout, the collapse of our ability to cope with the burdens pressing on us.
Authorities keep promoting a bogus “recovery” narrative. The disconnect between what the authorities are claiming and what people are actually experiencing is widening, and these unbridgeable contradictions lead to meltdown. No wonder more and more people are “losing it” as their neural circuitry melts down under the strain of synthesizing what they experience (crisis) and what they’re told (the “recovery” is already glorious and getting better every day).
In Survival+ I call this process derealization as our lived experience is derealized (dismissed as not real) by official spin and propaganda.
Research has illuminated how stress disrupts the default hierarchy of the brain. In the absence of stress, the neocortex-rational-mind functions suppress the more primitive subconscious signals of aggression, hunger, etc. in order to concentrate our effort to complete some planned activity.
Everyday Stress Can Shut Down the Brain’s Chief Command Center. Neural circuits responsible for conscious self-control are highly vulnerable to even mild stress. When they shut down, primal impulses go unchecked and mental paralysis sets in. (Scientific American; subscription required)
This helps explain the natural “fight or flight” response we feel when suddenly confronted with danger or potential danger, but more importantly it illuminates how we lose the ability to analyze circumstances rationally when we are “stressed out.” Once our rational analytic abilities are shut down, we are prone to making a series of ill-informed and rash decisions.
This has the potential to set up a destructive positive feedback loop: the more stressed out we become, the lower the quality of our decision-making, which then generates poor results that then stress us out even more, further degrading our already-impaired rational processes. This feedback loop quickly leads to “losing it” and/or burnout.
In pondering human development over the past 20,000 years of the transition from hunter-gatherer groups to modern life, it seems self-evident that stress was likely to be resolved in relatively short order in the hunter-gatherer lifestyle: everyone was known to everyone else, conflicts had to be resolved simply because the group survival depended on it, and most threats could be fended off with vigilance, weapons or left behind by a few hours of fast walking.
Contrast the ancient environment that selected for this stress/conscious self-control feedback with modern life: in the modern urban life and work environment, stress is more or less constant and our ability to resolve stressful situations is limited because we control very little about the macro social-economic waters we’re navigating.
Though this particular article focuses on short-term stress, there is growing body of evidence that chronic stress has a number of subtle and destructive consequences. In addition to the common-sense connection between chronic stress and hypertension, there is evidence that obesity is also related to stress-caused conditions such as inadequate sleep and chronic inflammation. This makes sense as the stress hormones erode the immune system’s responsiveness.
Behaviorally, stress breaks down self-control, so it is no surprise that stress leads to bingeing, addictive behavior, impulse buying, etc.–all “knock-on” effects with negative consequences.
Chronic stress permanently degrades our ability to rationally analyze and plan, and so we act irrationally or erratically, as we are no longer able to stick to a conscious plan of coherent action. With the rational mind and self-control centers permanently suppressed, we are prone to withdrawal and passivity, “sleepwalking” though life. This may help explain Americans’ remarkable passivity as their civil liberties are taken away and their financial insecurity increases.
Many of the features of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are now visible in “everyday Americans,” and an understanding of how stress erodes rational thought and self-control helps explain why.
Even before the pandemic, over half of Americans reported that their stress level was usually high. (see chart below) We can guess that this already high percentage is now considerably higher, given that 32 million people are receiving some form of unemployment and thousands of small businesses have closed.
Medical professionals were already burning out before the pandemic. (see chart below) What the status quo must cover up is the reality that the structure of our winner-take-most socio-economic system makes it unlivable, even for professionals (or especially for professionals, in many cases).
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress:
1) Develop positive physical and mental responses via discipline, habit and practice (for example, regular exercise, gardening, etc.).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
2) Turn off the mainstream media and social media (i.e. eliminate deranging, destructive distractions).
3) Stay focused on our plans. The simpler and more positive the plan, the more likely it is we can stay focused on it in stressful circumstances.
I laid out a context for my own planning in May.
Our Inevitable Collapse: We Can’t Save a Fragile Economy With Bailouts That Increase Fragility May 1, 2020
Why Assets Will Crash May 4, 2020
Surviving 2020 #1: Bug-Out Bunkers, Taoism and the Warring States May 5, 2020
Surviving 2020 #2: 16 Suggestions May 6, 2020
Surviving 2020 #3: Plans A, B and C May 7, 2020
The Outlines of a Better World Are Emerging May 8, 2020
Recent Podcasts:
AxisOfEasy Salon #15: Toxic Tech Platforms and Disposable Social Media Stars
Charles Hugh Smith on the disconnect between the Markets and the Economy (51 min)
My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts
My recent books:
Audiobook edition now available:
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
(Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--The Contrarian Investment Case for Russian Stocks

Russian stocks , as measured by the MOEX Russia Index , turned positive for the year on Tuesday of this week after plunging 30 percent due to the pandemic .
This puts them slightly behind the S & P 500 , but did you know that , despite the drama surrounding the annexation of Crimea and volatile oil prices , stocks trading on the Moscow Exchange have beaten U.S. equities for the five-year period ?
Even when priced in U.S. dollars , the MOEX is up 100 percent , compared to the S & P , up 74 percent as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support the idea of wisdom of crowds and the power of contrarian thinking .
Think of all the bad press Russian stocks have had to overcome during the past few years , from international sanctions to U.S. election meddling .
The MOEX slipped to a four-year low in March 2014 after the U.S. slapped Russia with fresh sanctions for violating Ukrainian sovereignty , after which it followed a mostly upward trajectory until the pandemic put the brakes on the rally .
As former President Bill Clinton once said , “ Follow the trendline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m reminded me of a Harvard Business School case study on U.S. health care stocks , which rallied in the early 2010s despite all the negative press and attack ads aimed at Obamacare following its passage in March 2010 .
According to one estimate , between 2010 and April 2014 , the amount of money spent on negative Obamacare TV ads was 15 times greater than positive Obamacare ads— $ 418 million versus $ 27 million .
Despite this , health care stocks more than doubled over the next five years , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Good investors know how to spot the opportunities , even when ( especially when ? )
the headlines are telling them there are none .
Those who snub Russian stocks for that very reason could be leaving money on the table .
From a macro point of view , there ’ s a lot to like about Russian stocks .
One of the most attractive features is how undervalued they are relative to stocks in other regions .
As of this month , the MOEX was trading at only 8.6 times earnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as cheap as emerging markets , three times cheaper than the S & P 500 , and 3.5 times cheaper than European stocks .
The deal is sweetened with a dividend yield that few other regions can match .
As of August 4 , Russian stocks were yielding an incredible 6.4 percent , while the MSCI World Index was offering 2.2 percent , the S & P 1.8 percent .
But it ’ s not just the yield that matters , of course .
It ’ s also important to look at dividend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we especially like Lukoil , the giant oil and gas explorer/producer .
Responsible for producing some 2 percent of the world ’ s oil and trading at 7.58 times earnings , Lukoil has a very attractive trailing 12-month ( TTM ) dividend yield of 10.56 percent .
For the past 20 years , the company has consistently been increasing its dividends per share .
Growth was an incredible 116.8 percent for the one-year period .
Sberbank is another low valuation/high dividend play .
Trading at 6.65 times earnings , the commercial bank currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yandex , the Exception to the Rule A Russian name we like , despite it not paying a dividend , is internet search firm Yandex , Russia ’ s answer to not just Google but also Amazon , Uber and Grubhub .
Since the market bottomed in mid-March , Yandex shares in USD have blasted past 100 percent , outperforming the Nasdaq 100 , up 55 percent .
Yandex shows a lot of growth potential after reporting last week .
The company highlighted strong revenue from search advertising and ride-hailing in July @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the same month a year earlier .
Orders for Yandex.Eats , a food delivery service launched in 2018 , doubled year-over-year in the second quarter .
Like Amazon and other U.S. internet firms , Yandex is a member of one of the few industries to benefit from sheltering-in-place .
In a research note dated July 28 , JPMorgan rated the company Overweight , seeing it as “ an attractive exposure to the rapidly evolving Russian online taxi , food takeaway and e-grocery market.
” On a final note , I ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerns investors might have about Russia and Russian equities .
Like the U.S. , Russia ’ s COVID-19 infection rate is one of the worst in the world , with the number of daily new cases and deaths seeing little slowdown .
As a result , its economy has taken a sizeable hit .
The country ’ s finance minister estimates that GDP contracted 4.2 percent in the first half of the year , and growth is projected to clock in at negative 4.8 percent for the full calendar year .
To address @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been steadily lowering its key interest rate .
In late July , the rate was trimmed for the fourth time this year and is now at a post-Soviet low of 4.25 percent .
The central bank ’ s president , Elvira Nabiullina , has indicated that additional cuts may be forthcoming in 2020 .
Not only will this lower borrowing costs , obviously , but it should also make savings accounts less attractive to Russian citizens .
I think it ’ s reasonable to expect a large percentage of this money to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which should support share prices .
You can file this next point under “ longshot , ” but it ’ s worth having on your radar .
As you may have heard , Russia seeks to become the first country to administer a coronavirus vaccine on a nationwide scale .
We now know that the vaccine ’ s rollout is being scheduled for October , according to a number of reports , with teachers and health care workers the first to receive it .
Again , it ’ s a longshot—the international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine ’ s efficacy—but should it succeed , Russian stocks could be first to see a huge spike .

by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors
Russian stocks, as measured by the MOEX Russia Index, turned positive for the year on Tuesday of this week after plunging 30 percent due to the pandemic. This puts them slightly behind the S&P 500, but did you know that, despite the drama surrounding the annexation of Crimea and volatile oil prices, stocks trading on the Moscow Exchange have beaten U.S. equities for the five-year period? Even when priced in U.S. dollars, the MOEX is up 100 percent, compared to the S&P, up 74 percent as of August 4.
click to enlarge
This resilience helps support the idea of wisdom of crowds and the power of contrarian thinking. Think of all the bad press Russian stocks have had to overcome during the past few years, from international sanctions to U.S. election meddling. The MOEX slipped to a four-year low in March 2014 after the U.S. slapped Russia with fresh sanctions for violating Ukrainian sovereignty, after which it followed a mostly upward trajectory until the pandemic put the brakes on the rally.
As former President Bill Clinton once said, “Follow the trendline, not the headline.”
I’m reminded me of a Harvard Business School case study on U.S. health care stocks, which rallied in the early 2010s despite all the negative press and attack ads aimed at Obamacare following its passage in March 2010. According to one estimate, between 2010 and April 2014, the amount of money spent on negative Obamacare TV ads was 15 times greater than positive Obamacare ads—$418 million versus $27 million. Despite this, health care stocks more than doubled over the next five years, while Louisville-based Humana increased a whopping 370 percent.
click to enlarge
Good investors know how to spot the opportunities, even when (especially when?) the headlines are telling them there are none. Those who snub Russian stocks for that very reason could be leaving money on the table.
Low Valuations, Attractive Dividends
From a macro point of view, there’s a lot to like about Russian stocks. One of the most attractive features is how undervalued they are relative to stocks in other regions. As of this month, the MOEX was trading at only 8.6 times earnings. That’s more than half as cheap as emerging markets, three times cheaper than the S&P 500, and 3.5 times cheaper than European stocks.
click to enlarge
The deal is sweetened with a dividend yield that few other regions can match. As of August 4, Russian stocks were yielding an incredible 6.4 percent, while the MSCI World Index was offering 2.2 percent, the S&P 1.8 percent.
click to enlarge
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But it’s not just the yield that matters, of course. It’s also important to look at dividend growth, and in that respect, we especially like Lukoil, the giant oil and gas explorer/producer. Responsible for producing some 2 percent of the world’s oil and trading at 7.58 times earnings, Lukoil has a very attractive trailing 12-month (TTM) dividend yield of 10.56 percent. For the past 20 years, the company has consistently been increasing its dividends per share. Growth was an incredible 116.8 percent for the one-year period.
Sberbank is another low valuation/high dividend play. Trading at 6.65 times earnings, the commercial bank currently has a TTM yield of 8.37 percent.
Yandex, the Exception to the Rule
A Russian name we like, despite it not paying a dividend, is internet search firm Yandex, Russia’s answer to not just Google but also Amazon, Uber and Grubhub. Since the market bottomed in mid-March, Yandex shares in USD have blasted past 100 percent, outperforming the Nasdaq 100, up 55 percent.
click to enlarge
Yandex shows a lot of growth potential after reporting last week. The company highlighted strong revenue from search advertising and ride-hailing in July, the latter rising 25 percent compared to the same month a year earlier. Orders for Yandex.Eats, a food delivery service launched in 2018, doubled year-over-year in the second quarter.
Like Amazon and other U.S. internet firms, Yandex is a member of one of the few industries to benefit from sheltering-in-place. In a research note dated July 28, JPMorgan rated the company Overweight, seeing it as “an attractive exposure to the rapidly evolving Russian online taxi, food takeaway and e-grocery market.”
A Vaccine by October?
On a final note, I’d like to address some of the obvious concerns investors might have about Russia and Russian equities. Like the U.S., Russia’s COVID-19 infection rate is one of the worst in the world, with the number of daily new cases and deaths seeing little slowdown. As a result, its economy has taken a sizeable hit. The country’s finance minister estimates that GDP contracted 4.2 percent in the first half of the year, and growth is projected to clock in at negative 4.8 percent for the full calendar year.
To address the pullback, the Bank of Russia has been steadily lowering its key interest rate. In late July, the rate was trimmed for the fourth time this year and is now at a post-Soviet low of 4.25 percent. The central bank’s president, Elvira Nabiullina, has indicated that additional cuts may be forthcoming in 2020.
Not only will this lower borrowing costs, obviously, but it should also make savings accounts less attractive to Russian citizens. I think it’s reasonable to expect a large percentage of this money to flow into the Russian stock market instead, which should support share prices.
You can file this next point under “longshot,” but it’s worth having on your radar. As you may have heard, Russia seeks to become the first country to administer a coronavirus vaccine on a nationwide scale. We now know that the vaccine’s rollout is being scheduled for October, according to a number of reports, with teachers and health care workers the first to receive it.
Again, it’s a longshot—the international medical community has expressed doubts about the vaccine’s efficacy—but should it succeed, Russian stocks could be first to see a huge spike.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Chinese Villagers Arrested for Protesting Over Contaminated Tap Water

Villagers in the rural area of China ’ s Hangzhou city located in Zhejiang province , protested after they found @ @ @ @ @ contaminated by a wastewater treatment plant .
Residents have noticed a foul odor emitting from @ @ @ @ @ 26 , and many had diarrhea , allergies , enteritis from drinking the water .

Villagers in the rural area of China’s Hangzhou city located in Zhejiang province, protested after they found out their tap water was contaminated by a wastewater treatment plant. Residents have noticed a foul odor emitting from their tap water since July 26, and many had diarrhea, allergies, enteritis from drinking the water.
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GS


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--“MOSTLY PEACEFUL” MEANS “PARTLY VIOLENT”: Here Are The Four Portland Teenagers Facing Federal Charge

“MOSTLY PEACEFUL” MEANS “PARTLY VIOLENT”: Here Are The Four Portland Teenagers Facing Federal Charges Related To Violent Protests…. The Left Is Always The Victim In The Media

Here Are The Four Portland Teenagers Facing Federal Charges Related To Violent Protests .
The four teenagers face charges ranging from arson and assault to trespassing , according to the Justice Department .
The federal courthouse has been the subject of violent demonstrations since general protests began in May , according to Daily Caller reporters on the scene .
Four teenagers have been charged with crimes related to sometimes-violent protests at the federal courthouse in Portland , according to Department of Justice announcements .
Four teenagers face federal charges ranging from arson to assault during recurring violent protests and clashes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ courthouse .
Protests at the courthouse began before President Donald Trump sent federal officers to the city , according to local media reports .
More than two dozen people have been arrested in connection to the violent demonstrations after federal officers were sent to Portland , according to journalist Andy Ngo who listed a number of arrests in a Twitter thread .
Among those arrested were 18-year-old men Isaiah Jason Maza Jr. , Gabriel Agard-Berryhill and Wyatt Ash-Milby , and 19-year-old Rowan Olsen , according to Department of Justice announcements .
Portland police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night , according to a Portland Police Twitter post .
Violent protesters have targeted the federal courthouse and have clashed with law enforcement on many nights since protests began in May , according to Daily Caller reporters on the scene .

Here Are The Four Portland Teenagers Facing Federal Charges Related To Violent Protests.
Four teenagers have been charged with crimes related to sometimes-violent protests at the federal courthouse in Portland, according to Department of Justice announcements.
The federal courthouse has been the subject of violent demonstrations since general protests began in May, according to Daily Caller reporters on the scene.
The four teenagers face charges ranging from arson and assault to trespassing, according to the Justice Department.
Four teenagers face federal charges ranging from arson to assault during recurring violent protests and clashes with law enforcement near the Portland federal courthouse. Protests at the courthouse began before President Donald Trump sent federal officers to the city, according to local media reports. More than two dozen people have been arrested in connection to the violent demonstrations after federal officers were sent to Portland, according to journalist Andy Ngo who listed a number of arrests in a Twitter thread. Among those arrested were 18-year-old men Isaiah Jason Maza Jr., Gabriel Agard-Berryhill and Wyatt Ash-Milby, and 19-year-old Rowan Olsen, according to Department of Justice announcements. Portland police declared an “unlawful assembly” Monday night, according to a Portland Police Twitter post. Violent protesters have targeted the federal courthouse and have clashed with law enforcement on many nights since protests began in May, according to Daily Caller reporters on the scene. After the deployment of numerous agents from federal agencies to Portland, there have been several arrests at #antifa riots. The agents are not subject to the same hand-tying placed on @PortlandPolice. I will name those arrested & charged in this thread. #PortlandRiots pic.twitter.com/xrNYUG9Gso — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) July 7, 2020
The Left is always the victim in the media. No matter the situation they are carefully crafted to never be the ‘bully’
One of the best analogies I’ve ever heard came from Bill Whittle, who likened Democrats to a younger brother repeatedly poking his older brother. After ignoring the first few pokes, the older brother eventually becomes agitated and slaps his younger brother’s hand away. The younger brother cries to Mommy, demanding that his older brother be punished for his behavior. We see this analogy routinely play out in politics, and while a seasoned mother may inquire about what preceded the hand-slapping, in our current political climate, that is a question we’re not supposed to ask. The Portland mayor cited Donald Trump sending in federal troops as the culprit for violence in Portland. We are supposed to believe that before federal law enforcement arrived in Portland, “peaceful protesters” were holding hands, singing “Give Peace a Chance.” We are not to ask what led to Trump sending in federal troops or make any mention of rampant violence and burning buildings prior to Trump’s actions.
Video: Antifa Has Taken Their Terror To The Residential Areas Of Portland Last Night And Attacked People At Their Homes – Receive Instant Justice – Conservative US
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Hot and Heavy Video from Portland Tonight — Different from the Hot and Heavy Courtroom Video In Florida Earlier Today.
I’ve posted these videos several nights in a row now, generally with some form of mocking humor directed at the rioters and taking my share of shots at Mayor Ted Wheeler along the way. But the actions of the Portland Police Department since Saturday night really raise several “WTF” questions about the pathetic politically driven decision by Mayor Wheeler to take no action for weeks while rioters in downtown Portland attacked the federal courthouse night after night. The action tonight shifted to the area around the Portland Police Department’s East Precinct Station. Wall Of Moms was out with the rioters. Among the first efforts made was to take down barriers covering the front windows of the Precinct Station, and then attempts were made to break into the station. twitter.com/stillgray/status/1291234959022108672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1291234959022108672%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftrulytimes.com%2Fhot-and-heavy-video-from-portland-tonight-different-from-the-hot-and-heavy-courtroom-video-in-florida-earlier-today.html
h/t SG


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Nunes slams Yates as ‘most oblivious deputy attorney general in US history’

George Papadopoulos Responds to Sally Yates ’ Lie Today that He ’ s Connected to Russian Intelligence : They Messed @ @ @ @ @ Payback .

George Papadopoulos Responds to Sally Yates’ Lie Today that He’s Connected to Russian Intelligence: They Messed with the Wrong Guy. Payback.
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Something that Yates didn’t seem to understand. I reported the Australian “official” to US officials for his brazen spying and bizarre behavior at my “meeting” with him. This “official” and his handler were interviewed by Durham months ago. They messed with the wrong guy. Payback — George Papadopoulos (@GeorgePapa19) August 5, 2020
Folks the days we have been waiting and fighting for are almost here. This should put a new wind of fight in the people who have been on the front lines for so long. It's about to go down! The strong language that @SidneyPowell1 used is confirming what the President said. … – t.co/WkTHnSk2tx — Mark Taylor (@patton6966) August 5, 2020
There wasn’t a peaceful transition of power.
The Obama-Biden-Rice team led an attack on the incoming team.
68 Democrats refused to go to the Inauguration. t.co/6tt4fuy023 — Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) August 6, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Buckling Three Gorges Dam in China is just fine, claims Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

( Natural News ) After previously denying that anything is wrong with the structure , the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) has finally admitted that the behemoth Three Gorges Dam in China ’ s Hubei province is “ deformed slightly.
” But nobody should worry , the regime insists , because everything is just fine .
The 2.4-kilometer dam , the largest in the world , has been the subject of much speculation recently after satellite imagery emerged to suggest that part of its frame is bowing .
Should the dam breach or collapse , it would be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are believed to be numerous nuclear power plants in the below floodplains .
According to the Xinhua News Agency , which is run by the communist Chinese government , the Three Gorges Dam is , indeed , buckling , but supposedly only in parts of it that are considered peripheral and nonstructural .
Some of the dam ’ s external structures had also been displaced , the CCP further admitted , resulting in seepage into the main outlet walls .
But this seepage has since been remedied , the Chinese government claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about a week ago when flood waters from the western Chinese provinces of Sichuan and Chongqing , located along the upper reaches of the Yangtze River , peaked at about 61,000 cubic meters per second .
The Three Gorges Corporation , which controls and manages the dam , says that floodgates were deployed to hold as much water as possible from the 39.3 billion-cubic-meter reservoir , protecting downstream cities like Wuhan , the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) , from being deluged .
Chinese government official says flooding the dam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it more “ rigid ” The official story is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with the Three Gorges Dam , even though parts of the structure are now misshapen .
All metrics are reportedly in line with its design parameters , and it could even hold more water – up to twice the amount that came last Saturday – without a hitch .
Wang Hao , an authority on hydraulics from the Chinese Academy of Engineering who sits on the Ministry of Water Resources ’ Yangtze River Administration Commission , further claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the stronger and more “ rigid ” it will be , though he did not explain the alleged science behind this .
Zhang Shuguang , director of the Three Gorges Corp. ’ s Hub Management Bureau recently made a similar claim , alleging that the Three Gorges Dam is impenetrable , and that nothing could topple it in the next 500 years .
Echoing what the designers of the Titanic once stated about their engineering feat , Zhang insists that the dam is 100 percent sound , and that none of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its structure have ever once flashed “ red ” on the facility ’ s central control panel .
The gravity dam , which is constructed of concrete , contains cement blocks that react with water to form a hard matrix , binding them all together .
Zhang insists that the dam also contains structural redundancy that ensures all sections of the dam remain stable at all times , even if one section became compromised .
The dam ’ s original designers claim that it was specifically designed to harness “ cataclysmic ” proportions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including the kind that strike only once in , say , 10 centuries .
The project was completed back in the late ’ 90s to the tune of about $ 13.5 billion .
Such a cataclysmic event is reportedly happening right this moment as nearly all of the southern provinces below the Three Gorges Dam face unprecedented flooding from extreme rainstorms .
“ About 95,000 residents have been evacuated before a 180 square kilometer floodwater diversion zone in Anhui province was used to regulate storm water runoff since Monday , ” reported the @ @ @

by Ethan Huff of Natural News
(Natural News) After previously denying that anything is wrong with the structure, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has finally admitted that the behemoth Three Gorges Dam in China’s Hubei province is “deformed slightly.” But nobody should worry, the regime insists, because everything is just fine.
The 2.4-kilometer dam, the largest in the world, has been the subject of much speculation recently after satellite imagery emerged to suggest that part of its frame is bowing. Should the dam breach or collapse, it would be a disaster of epic proportions, especially since there are believed to be numerous nuclear power plants in the below floodplains.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, which is run by the communist Chinese government, the Three Gorges Dam is, indeed, buckling, but supposedly only in parts of it that are considered peripheral and nonstructural.
Some of the dam’s external structures had also been displaced, the CCP further admitted, resulting in seepage into the main outlet walls. But this seepage has since been remedied, the Chinese government claims.
The new deformation supposedly became apparent about a week ago when flood waters from the western Chinese provinces of Sichuan and Chongqing, located along the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, peaked at about 61,000 cubic meters per second.
The Three Gorges Corporation, which controls and manages the dam, says that floodgates were deployed to hold as much water as possible from the 39.3 billion-cubic-meter reservoir, protecting downstream cities like Wuhan, the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), from being deluged.
Chinese government official says flooding the dam with even more water would only make it more “rigid”
The official story is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with the Three Gorges Dam, even though parts of the structure are now misshapen. All metrics are reportedly in line with its design parameters, and it could even hold more water – up to twice the amount that came last Saturday – without a hitch.
Wang Hao, an authority on hydraulics from the Chinese Academy of Engineering who sits on the Ministry of Water Resources’ Yangtze River Administration Commission, further claims that the more water the dam encounters, the stronger and more “rigid” it will be, though he did not explain the alleged science behind this.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Zhang Shuguang, director of the Three Gorges Corp.’s Hub Management Bureau recently made a similar claim, alleging that the Three Gorges Dam is impenetrable, and that nothing could topple it in the next 500 years.
Echoing what the designers of the Titanic once stated about their engineering feat, Zhang insists that the dam is 100 percent sound, and that none of the 12,000 sensors that have been fitted throughout its structure have ever once flashed “red” on the facility’s central control panel.
The gravity dam, which is constructed of concrete, contains cement blocks that react with water to form a hard matrix, binding them all together. Zhang insists that the dam also contains structural redundancy that ensures all sections of the dam remain stable at all times, even if one section became compromised.
The dam’s original designers claim that it was specifically designed to harness “cataclysmic” proportions of water coming from the Yangtze, including the kind that strike only once in, say, 10 centuries. The project was completed back in the late ’90s to the tune of about $13.5 billion.
Such a cataclysmic event is reportedly happening right this moment as nearly all of the southern provinces below the Three Gorges Dam face unprecedented flooding from extreme rainstorms.
“About 95,000 residents have been evacuated before a 180 square kilometer floodwater diversion zone in Anhui province was used to regulate storm water runoff since Monday,” reported the Asia Times.
Sources for this article include:
AsiaTimes.com
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Newspapers: Fusion Centers Have Secretly Created A National Citizen Spying Program

What has the public learned about Fusion Centers since the recent BlueLeaks hack was released over a month ago ?
Not a lot .
The Feds have done a great job of keeping the public from finding out what DHS Fusion/Intelligence Centers are really doing .
In a country founded on freedom , we find federal and local law enforcement scrambling to keep the true function of Fusion Centers hidden from the public .
By piecing together news articles from Maine and Texas papers , a disturbing picture begins to unfold of warrantless surveillance of Americans .
The first proof @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spy on everyday citizens and activists can be found in a Maine Press Herald article from mid-July .
The article goes into greater detail describing how local police use Fusion Centers to track down low-level offenders and ID people from social media or video footage .
Maine police even went so far as to ask the Fusion Center to identify a passenger in a car who refused to identify himself , and did not consent to having his photograph taken or his fingerprints scanned .
Another article in the Maine Press Herald which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refuse to acknowledge that they are secretly scanning everyone ’ s faces and spying on their cellphones .
A third Maine Press Herald article revealed that Fusion Centers are secretly collecting a massive database of license plate numbers , the names and addresses of legal gun owners , and monitoring political activist groups and collecting members names and addresses .
The Austin Chronicle revealed that Fusion Centers have used secret informants to create a national “ Suspicious Activity ” network .
“ In early June , an intelligence center operated by the Austin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many others like it across the country .
Known as BlueLeaks , the collection of leaked documents from the hack contains over 10 gigs of material taken from the Austin center .
They reveal a secret citizen spying program that ’ s active in the Austin area and across the country.
” The article reveals how Fusion Centers have created a vast network of secret “ Threat Liaison Officers ” ( TLOs ) .
Secret citizen spies or TLOs could be someone you least expect .
TLOs could be anyone : “ private @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , large venues , and local semiconductor companies .
Government employees in “ education , ” “ code enforcement , ” and “ public works ” also contribute to ARIC as FOUO TLOs .
According to the article , TLOs could be teachers , trash collectors , ministers , priests , rabbi ’ s or even counselors .
Basically DHS has succeeded in creating a network of secret government spies masquerading as everyday people .
A TLOs job is to report people for doing mundane things like asking questions , taking pictures or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
TLOs are also reporting people for “ suspicious ” social media posts , whatever that means .
To make it easier to report Americans for doing mundane things , Fusion Centers have provided TLOs with a checklist .
To say that this is reminiscent of China , the USSR or East Germany is an understatement .
As the Chronicle warned , ‘ worrisome examples of suspicious activity have led to increased scrutiny ’ which means the Feds and local police could be secretly monitoring innocent Americans without out any public scrutiny .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ If You See Something , Say Something ” was a failure guess again .
DHS has managed to justify creating 78 Fusion Centers whose sole purpose , it seems , is to spy on innocent Americans and track their daily movements .

by mapi
What has the public learned about Fusion Centers since the recent BlueLeaks hack was released over a month ago? Not a lot.
The Feds have done a great job of keeping the public from finding out what DHS Fusion/Intelligence Centers are really doing. In a country founded on freedom, we find federal and local law enforcement scrambling to keep the true function of Fusion Centers hidden from the public.
By piecing together news articles from Maine and Texas papers, a disturbing picture begins to unfold of warrantless surveillance of Americans.
The first proof that Fusion Centers were being used to spy on everyday citizens and activists can be found in a Maine Press Herald article from mid-July.
“A cache of internal police documents stolen from a secretive Maine State Police intelligence unit has provided the first substantial glimpse into how it collects and shares information about crime suspects and political activists and, in rare cases, keep tabs on domestic extremists, gang members and anti-government groups.”
The article goes into greater detail describing how local police use Fusion Centers to track down low-level offenders and ID people from social media or video footage.
“Police agencies commonly contact the Maine center with requests for help identifying a person depicted in a photo, sometimes captured from a surveillance camera. Other pictures are taken directly by law enforcement, or appear to be pulled from Facebook or other social media sites.”
Maine police even went so far as to ask the Fusion Center to identify a passenger in a car who refused to identify himself, and did not consent to having his photograph taken or his fingerprints scanned.
Another article in the Maine Press Herald which predated BlueLeaks, revealed that Fusion Centers refuse to acknowledge that they are secretly scanning everyone’s faces and spying on their cellphones.
“Despite evidence that the Maine State Police has worked for years with federal agencies to develop its use of digital surveillance technology, the agency now uses that law to refuse to answer any questions about such efforts, or even acknowledge that they exist.”
A third Maine Press Herald article revealed that Fusion Centers are secretly collecting a massive database of license plate numbers, the names and addresses of legal gun owners, and monitoring political activist groups and collecting members names and addresses.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Fusion Centers created a national citizen spy program
The Austin Chronicle revealed that Fusion Centers have used secret informants to create a national “Suspicious Activity” network.
“In early June, an intelligence center operated by the Austin Police Department was hacked, along with many others like it across the country. Known as BlueLeaks, the collection of leaked documents from the hack contains over 10 gigs of material taken from the Austin center. They reveal a secret citizen spying program that’s active in the Austin area and across the country.”
The article reveals how Fusion Centers have created a vast network of secret “Threat Liaison Officers” (TLOs).
“Documents examined by the Chronicle show that each TLO must sign a nondisclosure agreement with ARIC, including those not working in law enforcement, essentially creating secret citizen officers.”
Secret citizen spies or TLOs could be someone you least expect. TLOs could be anyone: “private security officers with local hotels, malls, large venues, and local semiconductor companies. Government employees in “education,” “code enforcement,” and “public works” also contribute to ARIC as FOUO TLOs.
According to the article, TLOs could be teachers, trash collectors, ministers, priests, rabbi’s or even counselors.
Basically DHS has succeeded in creating a network of secret government spies masquerading as everyday people.
A TLOs job is to report people for doing mundane things like asking questions, taking pictures or being observant of one’s surroundings. TLOs are also reporting people for “suspicious” social media posts, whatever that means.
“According to one FOUO TLO’s report, an individual was seen taking photos of Zach Scott’s Topfer Theatre on Sept. 22, 2016. The report includes five different pictures of a young person using a camera on a tripod to photograph the theatre from across the street.”
To make it easier to report Americans for doing mundane things, Fusion Centers have provided TLOs with a checklist.
“The leaked documents include submission forms TLOs use to make their reports. At the top of the forms are boxes to check indicating the type of activity being reported. These include the aforementioned “School Threat,” but also Eliciting Information, Observation/Surveillance, and Suspicious/Odd Facebook Post. The TLO report spreadsheet contains 128 reports of school threats. But the category most reported by far was Expressed or Implied Threat, with more than a thousand entries.”
To say that this is reminiscent of China, the USSR or East Germany is an understatement. As the Chronicle warned, ‘worrisome examples of suspicious activity have led to increased scrutiny’ which means the Feds and local police could be secretly monitoring innocent Americans without out any public scrutiny.
If you thought DHS’s “If You See Something, Say Something” was a failure guess again. DHS has managed to justify creating 78 Fusion Centers whose sole purpose, it seems, is to spy on innocent Americans and track their daily movements.


investmentwatchblog--2020-08-06--Danielle DiMartino Booth sits down with Chinese Economy expert Leland Miller

About the guest : Leland R. Miller is the Chief Executive Officer of China Beige Book International .
A leading authority on China ’ s economy and financial system , he is a frequent commentator on CNBC , Bloomberg TV & Radio , CNN , BBC , and FOX Business , among others , and his work is featured regularly in the Wall Street Journal , New York Times , Washington Post , TIME , New Yorker , Atlantic , Barron ’ s , Forbes , Foreign Policy , The Hill and South China Morning Post .
Mr. Miller holds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Virginia School of Law , where he was Hardy C. Dillard fellow and editor-in-chief of the school ’ s Journal of International Law ; a master ’ s degree in Chinese History from Oxford University ( St. Antony ’ s College ) ; a BA in European History from Washington & Lee University ; and a graduate Chinese language fellowship from Tunghai University ( Taiwan ) .
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC , a research and analytics firm .
She spent nine years as an advisor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reserve Bank of Dallas .
Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong , LLC , an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic newsletter She is the author of Fed Up : An Insider ’ s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America .
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson , Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit Suisse , where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets .
Danielle earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University .

Valuetainment Economics, Released on 8/6/20
About the guest: Leland R. Miller is the Chief Executive Officer of China Beige Book International. A leading authority on China’s economy and financial system, he is a frequent commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg TV & Radio, CNN, BBC, and FOX Business, among others, and his work is featured regularly in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, TIME, New Yorker, Atlantic, Barron’s, Forbes, Foreign Policy, The Hill and South China Morning Post. Mr. Miller holds a law degree from the University of Virginia School of Law, where he was Hardy C. Dillard fellow and editor-in-chief of the school’s Journal of International Law; a master’s degree in Chinese History from Oxford University (St. Antony’s College); a BA in European History from Washington & Lee University; and a graduate Chinese language fellowship from Tunghai University (Taiwan).
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Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. She spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong, LLC, an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic newsletter She is the author of Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit Suisse, where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets. Danielle earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.