investmentwatchblog--2020-03-20--Why Are So Many People In Italy Dying Of The Coronavirus?

One of the great mysteries of this coronavirus pandemic has been the widely varying death rates that we have been witnessing all over the globe .
For example , the death rate in Italy has been many times higher than the death rate in South Korea , and that has greatly puzzled the experts .
Initially I thought that perhaps Italy was dealing with a different strain of the virus than South Korea was , and that may still turn out to be true once we learn more .
But another potential factor has emerged that I wanted to share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do with something that might be in your medicine cabinet right now .
Health authorities in Europe are now warning that ibuprofen may accelerate the multiplication of the virus , and they are instructing everyone not to use it .
On Saturday , the health minister of France sparked headlines all over the globe when he tweeted the following… Unfortunately , many people in Europe have been immediately reaching for ibuprofen once they get the virus because they want something that will help them deal with the pain .
In fact , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serious complications once they caught the coronavirus had been taking ibuprofen at home… They studied why the disease pathway in Italy is more serious , finding that most patients took ibuprofen at home .
Researchers joined the virus and ibuprofen in the laboratory and came to the conclusion that administering ibuprofen accelerates multiplication of the virus and is related to a more serious course of the disease .
They recommend to avoid ibuprofen and to administer paracetamol , aspirin , diclofenac .
Consultant Pediatrician in London John Greenwood was quoted as saying : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical alert that no one is to use anti-inflammatories ( e.g .
Ibruprofen , Voltarol , naproxen , and others ) for pain or high temperature .
Use paracetamol instead .
There seems to be a link between severe cases of COVID-19 affecting young people with no underlying illnesses and taking anti-inflammatories .
Initial reports started coming from French doctors on Friday .
This has been confirmed by infectious diseases consultants here – there are four young people in ICU in Cork who have no underlying illnesses – all were taking anti-inflammatories and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more severe illness.
” This information needs to get out to everyone as quickly as possible , but so far the mainstream media in the United States has been very slow to pick up on this story .
And that is extremely unfortunate , because accurate information could make the difference between life and death in a lot of cases .
On Facebook , a British man named Dan Collins shared what happened when he gave his very young daughter ibuprofen to treat her coronavirus infection… To those of you that have children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of corona virus , DO NOT give them ibuprofen Amelia ’ s been unwell since Tuesday , cough , fever , cold .
This morning she came into my room and got into my bed burning hot and not wanting to get up .
Anyone that knows Amelia knows that this isn ’ t like her at all !
Once she ’ s awake she ’ s awake and spends the day bouncing off the walls !
We took her temperature and it was 38 , along with every other symptom of corona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ d send out paramedics within 2 hours to check on her We couldn ’ t get calpol anywhere in staple hill yesterday so got nurofen instead thinking nothing of it , within an hour of giving her nurofen she dropped dramatically .
She was panting while trying to breathe , her heart rate was very rapid , she couldn ’ t keep her eyes open , couldn ’ t lift her head up , her body was shaking , she started being sick on herself and her temperature had risen to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they sent out an emergency ambulance , once the paramedics got here they managed to bring her temp and stats down a bit , they ’ re still higher than normal but not dangerous high anymore .
Now she ’ s back on calpol she ’ s back to just being her poorly self .
The paramedics only told us while here that were not to give her ibuprofen !
The paramedic said about self isolating and calling back if her temp rises that high again , so I asked if it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s already been 5 days but they said that as she has all symptoms were to keep her isolated until all symptoms are gone .
So please don ’ t give them ibuprofen !
For those that aren ’ t familiar with “ Nurofen ” , the primary active ingredient it contains is ibuprofen .
If we don ’ t get the word out about this , a lot of otherwise mild cases could become very serious , and our hospitals will be even more overwhelmed .
In the United Kingdom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a complete and utter national nightmare .
The following comes from an article entitled “ I ’ m a Doctor in Britain .
We ’ re Heading Into the Abyss.
” … Ten days ago , I was asked to see a patient .
I ’ m a respiratory specialist in an intensive-care unit at a hospital in London , so it wasn ’ t surprising that the patient needed a ventilator .
It seemed fairly typical .
But the patient turned out to have the coronavirus — our hospital ’ s first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have so far tested positive in Britain .
I hadn ’ t worn a mask .
Soon I developed a cough .
Though I experienced neither fever nor breathlessness , I was told to self-isolate for 14 days .
That ’ s where I am now , in self-isolation .
And I ’ m not the only one from my hospital .
After just one patient with Covid-19 , a quarter of our junior staff are off with coughs and sniffles we would normally work through .
A single case of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Of course the U.S. is facing a similar scenario .
In fact , New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio just warned that his city “ will run out of medical supplies ” in just a matter of weeks… And New York City pediatric surgeon Cornelia Griggs just wrote an open letter to the New York Times in which she proclaimed that “ the sky is falling ” , and she ominously warned that we are about to face an absolutely unprecedented public health crisis that we are not ready for… Alarmist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used to describe me before .
I ’ m a board-certified surgeon and critical care specialist who spent much of my training attending to traumas in the emergency room and doing the rounds at Harvard hospitals ’ intensive care units .
I ’ m now in my last four months of training as a pediatric surgeon in New York City .
Part of my job entails waking in the middle of the night to rush to the children ’ s hospital to put babies on a form of life support called ECMO , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s lungs are failing even with maximum ventilator support .
Scenarios that mimic end-stage Covid-19 are part of my job .
Panic is not in my vocabulary ; the emotion has been drilled out of me in nine years of training .
This is different .
We are living in a global public health crisis moving at a speed and scale never witnessed by living generations .
The cracks in our medical and financial systems are being splayed open like a gashing wound .
No matter how this plays out , life will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of us .
Anyone that is not taking this outbreak seriously at this point is just being delusional .
One patient that survived the virus says that she constantly felt like she had glass in her lungs , the Washington Post is projecting that 1.1 million Americans could die in a “ worst-case scenario ” , and the virus is now starting to make a big time comeback in countries where it was thought to be contained .
It appears that we are going to be fighting this virus for a long time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical that we get people the information that they desperately need .
Unfortunately , many in the mainstream media appear to be more concerned about what their advertisers will think , and that is extremely unfortunate .

by Michael Snyder
One of the great mysteries of this coronavirus pandemic has been the widely varying death rates that we have been witnessing all over the globe. For example, the death rate in Italy has been many times higher than the death rate in South Korea, and that has greatly puzzled the experts. Initially I thought that perhaps Italy was dealing with a different strain of the virus than South Korea was, and that may still turn out to be true once we learn more. But another potential factor has emerged that I wanted to share with my readers, because it has to do with something that might be in your medicine cabinet right now. Health authorities in Europe are now warning that ibuprofen may accelerate the multiplication of the virus, and they are instructing everyone not to use it.
On Saturday, the health minister of France sparked headlines all over the globe when he tweeted the following…
“The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”
Unfortunately, many people in Europe have been immediately reaching for ibuprofen once they get the virus because they want something that will help them deal with the pain.
In fact, researchers discovered that most Italians that developed serious complications once they caught the coronavirus had been taking ibuprofen at home…
They studied why the disease pathway in Italy is more serious, finding that most patients took ibuprofen at home. Researchers joined the virus and ibuprofen in the laboratory and came to the conclusion that administering ibuprofen accelerates multiplication of the virus and is related to a more serious course of the disease. They recommend to avoid ibuprofen and to administer paracetamol, aspirin, diclofenac. Consultant Pediatrician in London John Greenwood was quoted as saying: “We have just been sent a medical alert that no one is to use anti-inflammatories (e.g. Ibruprofen, Voltarol, naproxen, and others) for pain or high temperature. Use paracetamol instead. There seems to be a link between severe cases of COVID-19 affecting young people with no underlying illnesses and taking anti-inflammatories. Initial reports started coming from French doctors on Friday. This has been confirmed by infectious diseases consultants here – there are four young people in ICU in Cork who have no underlying illnesses – all were taking anti-inflammatories and there are concerns this has caused a more severe illness.”
This information needs to get out to everyone as quickly as possible, but so far the mainstream media in the United States has been very slow to pick up on this story.
And that is extremely unfortunate, because accurate information could make the difference between life and death in a lot of cases.
On Facebook, a British man named Dan Collins shared what happened when he gave his very young daughter ibuprofen to treat her coronavirus infection…
To those of you that have children please read If your child has symptoms of corona virus, DO NOT give them ibuprofen Amelia’s been unwell since Tuesday, cough, fever, cold. This morning she came into my room and got into my bed burning hot and not wanting to get up. Anyone that knows Amelia knows that this isn’t like her at all! Once she’s awake she’s awake and spends the day bouncing off the walls! We took her temperature and it was 38, along with every other symptom of corona virus, so called 111 who said they’d send out paramedics within 2 hours to check on her We couldn’t get calpol anywhere in staple hill yesterday so got nurofen instead thinking nothing of it, within an hour of giving her nurofen she dropped dramatically. She was panting while trying to breathe, her heart rate was very rapid, she couldn’t keep her eyes open, couldn’t lift her head up, her body was shaking, she started being sick on herself and her temperature had risen to 39.4! We called back up and they sent out an emergency ambulance, once the paramedics got here they managed to bring her temp and stats down a bit, they’re still higher than normal but not dangerous high anymore. Now she’s back on calpol she’s back to just being her poorly self. The paramedics only told us while here that were not to give her ibuprofen! The paramedic said about self isolating and calling back if her temp rises that high again, so I asked if it’s just for the 7 days as it’s already been 5 days but they said that as she has all symptoms were to keep her isolated until all symptoms are gone. So please don’t give them ibuprofen!
For those that aren’t familiar with “Nurofen”, the primary active ingredient it contains is ibuprofen.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If we don’t get the word out about this, a lot of otherwise mild cases could become very serious, and our hospitals will be even more overwhelmed.
In the United Kingdom, one doctor is already warning of a complete and utter national nightmare. The following comes from an article entitled “I’m a Doctor in Britain. We’re Heading Into the Abyss.”…
Ten days ago, I was asked to see a patient. I’m a respiratory specialist in an intensive-care unit at a hospital in London, so it wasn’t surprising that the patient needed a ventilator. It seemed fairly typical. But the patient turned out to have the coronavirus — our hospital’s first case and one of nearly 2,000 people who have so far tested positive in Britain. I hadn’t worn a mask. Soon I developed a cough. Though I experienced neither fever nor breathlessness, I was told to self-isolate for 14 days. That’s where I am now, in self-isolation. And I’m not the only one from my hospital. After just one patient with Covid-19, a quarter of our junior staff are off with coughs and sniffles we would normally work through. A single case of the coronavirus has wreaked havoc in our hospital.
Of course the U.S. is facing a similar scenario.
In fact, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio just warned that his city “will run out of medical supplies” in just a matter of weeks…
New York City has recorded 1664 new cases of COVID-19 in a single day, taking the total number to 3615. Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the shocking statistic in a press conference held Thursday afternoon, with the official number soaring by over 1000 in the hours since state Governor Andrew Cuomo updated the public earlier in the morning. He later told CNN that the city will run out of medical supplies in between two and three weeks if infections continue at the current rate.
And New York City pediatric surgeon Cornelia Griggs just wrote an open letter to the New York Times in which she proclaimed that “the sky is falling”, and she ominously warned that we are about to face an absolutely unprecedented public health crisis that we are not ready for…
Alarmist is not a word anyone has ever used to describe me before. I’m a board-certified surgeon and critical care specialist who spent much of my training attending to traumas in the emergency room and doing the rounds at Harvard hospitals’ intensive care units. I’m now in my last four months of training as a pediatric surgeon in New York City. Part of my job entails waking in the middle of the night to rush to the children’s hospital to put babies on a form of life support called ECMO, a service required when a child’s lungs are failing even with maximum ventilator support. Scenarios that mimic end-stage Covid-19 are part of my job. Panic is not in my vocabulary; the emotion has been drilled out of me in nine years of training. This is different. We are living in a global public health crisis moving at a speed and scale never witnessed by living generations. The cracks in our medical and financial systems are being splayed open like a gashing wound. No matter how this plays out, life will forever look a little different for all of us.
Anyone that is not taking this outbreak seriously at this point is just being delusional.
One patient that survived the virus says that she constantly felt like she had glass in her lungs, the Washington Post is projecting that 1.1 million Americans could die in a “worst-case scenario”, and the virus is now starting to make a big time comeback in countries where it was thought to be contained.
It appears that we are going to be fighting this virus for a long time to come, and it is absolutely critical that we get people the information that they desperately need.
Unfortunately, many in the mainstream media appear to be more concerned about what their advertisers will think, and that is extremely unfortunate.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--More Than 70 Million Americans Have Been Locked Down So Far, And This Is Just The Beginning…

It seems like just yesterday that I was warning that the same sort of lockdowns that were occurring in Italy and China would soon be instituted here , and now it is actually happening .
As you will see below , more than 70 million Americans have already been locked down , and more states will likely follow suit in the days ahead .
Of course our politicians are attempting to put a positive spin on their directives by referring to them as “ shelter-in-place ” orders , and they are promising us that they are only “ temporary ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ died during this pandemic so far , and many medical experts are warning that this is only the very beginning of this crisis .
As long as the number of confirmed cases and the death toll are both rising at an exponential rate , these “ shelter-in place ” orders will remain in effect , and Americans will become increasingly frustrated about having to remain in their own homes .
On Friday , two of the biggest states in the entire country decided that it was time to shut virtually everything down… The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home order , making it the latest state to shut down after New York and California as President Trump refuses to issue a national quarantine in the battle against coronavirus .
On Friday , NY Gov .
Andrew Cuomo issued a total ban on non-essential businesses and warned there would be strict fines for any businesses that do not comply .
It will go into effect on Sunday evening and is indefinite .
But of course some businesses will remain open .
The following is a list of some of the businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the order… • None Cuomo said he does not know if laundromats apply The effectiveness of such an order is definitely open to debate .
As thousands upon thousands of New Yorkers circulate through local grocery stores and pharmacies , it is inevitable that the virus will continue to spread .
But at least doing this is better than nothing .
These orders by the governors of New York and Illinois came about 24 hours after California instituted similar measures… This means that in just those three states alone , approximately 70 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” … In addition to California , New York and Illinois , the state of Connecticut has decided to lock down their citizens starting on Monday night , and Pennsylvania has ordered all businesses that are not “ life-sustaining ” to completely shut down .
We haven ’ t reached the point of a total “ national lockdown ” just yet , but it will sure start to feel like it as one state after another issues similar orders .
I am really struggling to find the words to describe how utterly devastating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. economy .
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits is absolutely exploding all over the country , and financial markets have been plunging as investors anticipate the economic nightmare that is coming .
For much more on this please see the article that I just posted entitled “ This Was The Worst Week For The Stock Market Since 2008 , And “ Jobless Filings Are Growing Geometrically ” .
Many are hoping that the lockdowns that are being instituted now will last for only a few weeks and then life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But Italy has already been locked down for an extended period of time , and the number of people dying in that country just hit another daily record… And many Americans are simply too stubborn to follow these lockdown orders .
In fact , many Americans are too stupid to even use basic common sense .
Just check out the following example… Are you kidding me ?
Coughing on produce and then posting it on social media ?
Some people will do anything to get attention .
I really do hope that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The number of confirmed cases in the U.S. will pass the 20,000 mark this weekend , and we just learned that a member of Vice-President Mike Pence ’ s staff has tested positive… This pandemic is going to change life in America permanently , and the truth is that COVID-19 is just one element of “ the perfect storm ” that is now upon us .
Economic activity is coming to a screeching halt all over the nation , anger and frustration were already at extremely dangerous levels before this pandemic started @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on for many months to come it is only a matter of time before we see tremendous civil unrest start to erupt .
Everything that we have been warning about for so long is starting to come to fruition , and the days ahead are going to be extremely challenging for all Americans .

by Michael Snyder
It seems like just yesterday that I was warning that the same sort of lockdowns that were occurring in Italy and China would soon be instituted here, and now it is actually happening. As you will see below, more than 70 million Americans have already been locked down, and more states will likely follow suit in the days ahead. Of course our politicians are attempting to put a positive spin on their directives by referring to them as “shelter-in-place” orders, and they are promising us that they are only “temporary”. But less than 300 Americans have died during this pandemic so far, and many medical experts are warning that this is only the very beginning of this crisis. As long as the number of confirmed cases and the death toll are both rising at an exponential rate, these “shelter-in place” orders will remain in effect, and Americans will become increasingly frustrated about having to remain in their own homes.
On Friday, two of the biggest states in the entire country decided that it was time to shut virtually everything down…
The Governor of Illinois has announced a stay at home order, making it the latest state to shut down after New York and California as President Trump refuses to issue a national quarantine in the battle against coronavirus. On Friday, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued a total ban on non-essential businesses and warned there would be strict fines for any businesses that do not comply. It will go into effect on Sunday evening and is indefinite.
But of course some businesses will remain open. The following is a list of some of the businesses in New York that are exempt from the order…
Hospitals and medical services
Grocery Stores
Pharmacies
Government workers
Mass transit
Some food services and restaurant delivery
News organizations
Cuomo said he does not know if laundromats apply
The effectiveness of such an order is definitely open to debate. As thousands upon thousands of New Yorkers circulate through local grocery stores and pharmacies, it is inevitable that the virus will continue to spread.
But at least doing this is better than nothing.
These orders by the governors of New York and Illinois came about 24 hours after California instituted similar measures…
The stay home order is in place till further notice. All dine-in restaurants, bars and clubs, gyms and fitness studios will be closed, according to the order. Public events and gatherings are also not allowed. Essential services will stay open, however, such as pharmacies, grocery stores, takeout and delivery restaurants, and banks.
This means that in just those three states alone, approximately 70 million Americans “are now under stay-at-home orders”…
It means that between the three states, 70 million Americans are now under stay-at-home orders. They are being told to only go out for exercise, to the grocery store or to seek medical care, and can pick up take-out from restaurants – so long as those restaurants can keep themselves afloat. Many have already closed their doors.
Wow.
In addition to California, New York and Illinois, the state of Connecticut has decided to lock down their citizens starting on Monday night, and Pennsylvania has ordered all businesses that are not “life-sustaining” to completely shut down.
We haven’t reached the point of a total “national lockdown” just yet, but it will sure start to feel like it as one state after another issues similar orders.
I am really struggling to find the words to describe how utterly devastating that this is going to be for the U.S. economy. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits is absolutely exploding all over the country, and financial markets have been plunging as investors anticipate the economic nightmare that is coming. For much more on this please see the article that I just posted entitled “This Was The Worst Week For The Stock Market Since 2008, And “Jobless Filings Are Growing Geometrically”.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What’s happening in the US economy in one chart. Year- over-year change in seated diners at restaurants for 38 states, as provided by OpenTable. The median state is down 95%. Hopefully, today’s Republican Senate bill will helps before these restaurants are gone. pic.twitter.com/8m56uggfMc — Andy Puzder (@AndyPuzder) March 19, 2020
Many are hoping that the lockdowns that are being instituted now will last for only a few weeks and then life can start to get back to normal.
But Italy has already been locked down for an extended period of time, and the number of people dying in that country just hit another daily record…
Italy has recorded its highest day-to-day-rise in the number of deaths of people infected with the new coronavirus. Civil Protection Chief Angelo Borrelli said Friday the country recorded 627 more deaths in the 24 hours since Italy surpassed China on Thursday as the nation with the most COVID-19-related deaths. The total now stands at 4,032.
And many Americans are simply too stubborn to follow these lockdown orders.
In fact, many Americans are too stupid to even use basic common sense. Just check out the following example…
The latest incident occurred in the Washington exurb of Purcellville, Virginia, some 55 miles from the White House. According to a Purcellville Police Department report, “An incident occurred at a local grocery store involving juveniles reportedly coughing on produce, while filming themselves and posting it on social media.”
Are you kidding me?
Coughing on produce and then posting it on social media?
Some people will do anything to get attention.
I really do hope that more Americans start taking this pandemic seriously. The number of confirmed cases in the U.S. will pass the 20,000 mark this weekend, and we just learned that a member of Vice-President Mike Pence’s staff has tested positive…
A member of Vice President Mike Pence’s staff has tested positive for coronavirus, the White House said Friday, marking the first such infection within the top rungs of the administration. Katie Miller, a spokeswoman for Pence, did not identify the staffer, nor did she say specifically where the individual worked. Pence is leading the administration’s coronavirus task force and has been a regular presence at the president’s side in recent weeks.
This pandemic is going to change life in America permanently, and the truth is that COVID-19 is just one element of “the perfect storm” that is now upon us.
Economic activity is coming to a screeching halt all over the nation, anger and frustration were already at extremely dangerous levels before this pandemic started, and if these lockdown orders stretch on for many months to come it is only a matter of time before we see tremendous civil unrest start to erupt.
Everything that we have been warning about for so long is starting to come to fruition, and the days ahead are going to be extremely challenging for all Americans.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--NIH: UP TO 70,000 CASES NEXT WEEK; 20% OF POPULATION NOW ON LOCKDOWN; ECONOMY DETERIORATING FAST

NIH : UP TO 70,000 CASES NEXT WEEK As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week , marking a “ pretty dramatic ” increase in the number of confirmed cases , the director of the National Institutes of Health , Dr. Francis Collins , told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday .
But , Collins cautioned , “ that doesn ’ t mean necessarily that the outbreak has exploded at an even more rapid rate.
” 20 % OF POPULATION NOW ON LOCKDOWN ILLINOIS joined New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread , as the Governor announced a “ shelter in place ” order on Friday .
The order , limiting all residents to stay in their homes unless absolutely essential , goes into effect at 5pm on Saturday and will last until April 7 , Governor J.B. Pritzker said .
As COVID-19 cases continue to climb , Illinois is the latest U.S. state to take strict steps to help tackle the deadly virus .
Between New York , California and Illinois , more than 70 million residents are now being ordered to stay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for more than 20 percent of the U.S. that is now under lockdown .
“ We have to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 , ” Pritzker said in a tweet hours before the official announcement .
The U.S. economy is deteriorating more quickly than was expected just days ago , as extraordinary measures designed to curb the coronavirus keep 84 million Americans penned in their homes and cause the near-total shutdown of most businesses .
In a single 24-hour period , the governors of three of the largest states – California , New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay home , except to buy food and medicine , while the governor of Pennsylvania ordered the closure of nonessential businesses .
Across the globe , health officials are struggling to cope with the growing number of patients , with the World Health Organization noting that while it required three months to reach 100,000 cases , it took only 12 days to hit another 100,000 .
Military Role Widens in Pandemic Response… President considers national quarantine ; Only drug , grocery stores open… U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NYC subway… Testing faces new headwind : Lab supply shortages… California awakes to new reality : Homebound amid outbreak… Acts of kindness abound… Fed begins pumping municipal bonds… Jobless claims may reach over 2 MILLION next week !
GOLDMAN PREDICTS -24 % GDP… More survivors speak out on illness… Power industry may ask staff to LIVE on site… Congress may move to remote work… Police Arrest Homeowner For Hosting ‘ Pop-Up Wedding ’ … AMAZON , WALMART Workers Push for Paid Leave , Better Protections… UPDATE : Best-Case Outcome , and Worst… SICK @

NIH: UP TO 70,000 CASES NEXT WEEK
As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday. But, Collins cautioned, “that doesn’t mean necessarily that the outbreak has exploded at an even more rapid rate.”
20% OF POPULATION NOW ON LOCKDOWN
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ILLINOIS joined New York and California in lockdowns to curb coronavirus spread, as the Governor announced a “shelter in place” order on Friday. The order, limiting all residents to stay in their homes unless absolutely essential, goes into effect at 5pm on Saturday and will last until April 7, Governor J.B. Pritzker said. As COVID-19 cases continue to climb, Illinois is the latest U.S. state to take strict steps to help tackle the deadly virus. Between New York, California and Illinois, more than 70 million residents are now being ordered to stay home amid the pandemic. This accounts for more than 20 percent of the U.S. that is now under lockdown. “We have to mitigate the spread of COVID-19,” Pritzker said in a tweet hours before the official announcement.
ECONOMY DETERIORATING FAST
The U.S. economy is deteriorating more quickly than was expected just days ago, as extraordinary measures designed to curb the coronavirus keep 84 million Americans penned in their homes and cause the near-total shutdown of most businesses. In a single 24-hour period, the governors of three of the largest states – California, New York and Illinois – ordered residents to stay home, except to buy food and medicine, while the governor of Pennsylvania ordered the closure of nonessential businesses. Across the globe, health officials are struggling to cope with the growing number of patients, with the World Health Organization noting that while it required three months to reach 100,000 cases, it took only 12 days to hit another 100,000.
Military Role Widens in Pandemic Response…
President considers national quarantine; Only drug, grocery stores open…
U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about likely pandemic…
Shock moment wheezing man collapses on NYC subway…
Testing faces new headwind: Lab supply shortages…
California awakes to new reality: Homebound amid outbreak…
Acts of kindness abound…
Fed begins pumping municipal bonds…
Jobless claims may reach over 2 MILLION next week!
GOLDMAN PREDICTS -24% GDP…
More survivors speak out on illness…
Power industry may ask staff to LIVE on site…
Congress may move to remote work…
Police Arrest Homeowner For Hosting ‘Pop-Up Wedding’…
AMAZON, WALMART Workers Push for Paid Leave, Better Protections…
UPDATE: Best-Case Outcome, and Worst…
SICK MAP…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--BREAKING: Pence staffer tests positive for coronavirus, becoming first-known case of a White House e

BREAKING: Pence staffer tests positive for coronavirus, becoming first-known case of a White House employee

A staff member in Vice President Mike Pence ’ s office has tested positive for coronavirus , a spokesperson for @ @ @ @ @ making that the first White House staffer known to have the virus .
“ This @ @ @ @ @ a member of the Office of the Vice President tested positive for the Coronavirus , @ @ @ @ @ ’ s press secretary , said in a statement .
“ Neither President Trump nor @ @ @ @ @ contact with the individual.
” Pence ’ s office did not identify the individual or @ @ @ @ @ person or the job they hold .

Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
A staff member in Vice President Mike Pence’s office has tested positive for coronavirus, a spokesperson for Pence announced Friday evening, making that the first White House staffer known to have the virus.
“This evening we were notified that a member of the Office of the Vice President tested positive for the Coronavirus,” Katie Miller, Pence’s press secretary, said in a statement. “Neither President Trump nor Vice President Pence had close contact with the individual.”
Pence’s office did not identify the individual or provide other information about the person or the job they hold.
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www.foxnews.com/politics/a-person-in-pences-office-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-vps-office-announces
www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/staffer-vice-president-office-coronavirus/index.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--IMPORTANT INFO: What COVID-19 Symptoms Look Like, Day By Day

After being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19 , it can take as few as two and as many @ @ @ @ @ to develop .
Cases range from mild to critical .
The average timeline from the @ @ @ @ @ about 17 days , but some cases are fatal .
Here ’ s what it @ @ @ @ @ , day by day .

After being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19, it can take as few as two and as many as 14 days for symptoms to develop. Cases range from mild to critical. The average timeline from the first symptom to recovery is about 17 days, but some cases are fatal. Here’s what it looks like to develop COVID-19, day by day.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Short Take on the Long Line to Recession

Just as stocks were taking a morning breather while I was enjoying my coffee as I wrote down these first Coronacrisis recession stats , Goldman Sachs churned out a heart-ripping prediction for the end of the week .
It ’ s been a long line of facts to the recession , but the last step is a doozy !
I have no argument with where this is going or with stating a recession is already here .
Why wouldn ’ t it be ?
A recession was already clearly coming down on us and , at least , partially here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ coronavirus induced recession ” could be an attempt by BofA to blame all this on the coronavirus and take the pressure off of banksters and the rest of Wall Street for their roll in assuring it would come .
Nevertheless , it ’ s certainly fair to say the coronavirus is a massive contributor to what was already building ; but look at what was already here economically ( red line ) , and look at what is happening in stocks ( green line ) : This is what I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crash would easily build up spectacular momentum ( as it clearly did ) because it has a long way to fall to “ catch down to ” the actual Main Street economy .
You can see in the graph above that every bubble in stocks has always fallen back to economic reality .
Since this bubble ( BALLOON ) was stratospherically higher than the Main Street economy , it has a lot further to fall .
That assures more room to build up momentum , in order to get back down to where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however , is really much worse than the graph because the graph shows where the economy was up to the moment when the virus first hit China .
Imagine how much worse the entire global business economy is ( US included ) now .
The market has that much further to fall to price down to match the new economic reality .
Then imagine how much further the entire global economy ( US included ) will fall this month , and know the stock market has to fall that much further , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ damage continues .
That is a summary in one snapshot of why I called this , back in January , “ the most perilous stock market in history !
” Charting unexplored waters to fall off the edge of the world Now , here are a few stats showing where we went at the tail-end of February just as all of this was beginning to take hold in Europe , Australia , and the US .
First , Zero Hedge published a hint of the jobless claims that BofA says will be quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking for gives you a good idea of where they ’ re headed .
Then the actual report came out and confirmed a perfect match : That was for the week that ended on March 14 .
So , the last holdout in a recession that was already forming ( a change in unemployment ) is now fully in due to the Coronacrisis kicking our butts down into the recession hole , which we were already leaning far out over .
We were an easy kick .
But it gets a lot worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , the market ended its morning rest , plunged another 900 points down and closed off its worst week since the big crash of 2008 .
Maybe that ’ s media scare , but remember GS is usually the perennial optimist as it tries to pump the market up .
Of course , I wouldn ’ t put it past them to have shorted the whole market in order to make a vast fortune and then to stomp it down as hard as they can .
Regardless , it is fully safe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down the blip of hope that had spiked onto the economic radar screens in February , taking the Philadelphia Fed ’ s Business Outlook Survey back to where it was at the end of the Great Recession : After dealing with a long down trend since the summer of 2018 ( those stimulus tax years ) , hopes had broken through “ biggly ” to the upside ’ but they are now biggly lower .
( From +36.7 to -12.7 . )
Easy come , easy go .
Under the hood , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , shipments , inventories , employment , and prices received .
You can see the Empire State ’ s March survey looked just as bad , except that it didn ’ t show as much of a spike of hope in February — same protracted decline since 2018 , falling off a cliff this month : That ’ s the quickest plunge in the Philadelphia Fed survey ’ s history — not too surprising since this is the only time in history we ’ ve seen nations all over the world lock down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down now to all but commercial traffic and essential visits , and Mexico thanking us for shutting that one ) and shut down air travel between nations .
Never before have we seen entire towns scattered all over the world order all non-essential businesses to shutter their doors and windows and send all employees home for a month of bed rest or work from home if they can .
Global manufacturing also took its steepest and mosts immediate plunge in history : Again , you can see the relentless fall into recession ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this time the start of ) 2018 with a bit of hope up that peeked ever-so-barely above recession and then over the cliff .
And all of that is why the “ most perilous stock market in history ” crashed into — BY FAR !
— the fastest bear market in history : So , yes , this is easily the most dire economic event we ’ ve crashed down into in our lifetimes , unless we you are old enough to have lived during the Great Depression , and I ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be as deep as that , though probably not as long , but who knows ?
Who would have known an extra-bad case of the flu could shut down the entire planet so quickly ?
After all , here is what happened in China : We can expect no better than China got .
However , we can expect bailouts … and lots of them .
AND we can KNOW that many of them would never have been necessary even now if businesses had not spent all their repatriated profits and all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make shareholders richer at the cost of making their companies far less robust for weathering bad times .
We can also KNOW that even those businesses that had no cash piles could have weathered through on cheap credit if they hadn ’ t maxed out their credit to buy even more bailouts to make shareholders even richer .
Isn ’ t that one of the reasons for having credit lines ?
It ’ s why I keep a couple of credit lines at home — to have an extra cushion or two to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m also prudent enough to know that , if I max out my credit lines when times are good , I ’ m going to land on the pavement when times go bad and I need the cushions .
So … are we going to let the rich CEOs , shareholders and their banksters bail themselves out with taxpayer backing just because they sucked all the helium out of their cushions when times were fat and happy ?
That ’ s up to us !
It depends on whether we do @ @ @ @

by David Haggith
Just as stocks were taking a morning breather while I was enjoying my coffee as I wrote down these first Coronacrisis recession stats, Goldman Sachs churned out a heart-ripping prediction for the end of the week. It’s been a long line of facts to the recession, but the last step is a doozy!
Bank of America warned investors on Thursday that a coronavirus-induced recession is no longer avoidable — it’s already here. “We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession … joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,” Bank of America U.S. economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. “Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed.” The firm expects the economy to “collapse” in the second quarter, shrinking by 12%. CNBC
I have no argument with where this is going or with stating a recession is already here. Why wouldn’t it be? A recession was already clearly coming down on us and, at least, partially here. I do think calling it the “coronavirus induced recession” could be an attempt by BofA to blame all this on the coronavirus and take the pressure off of banksters and the rest of Wall Street for their roll in assuring it would come.
Nevertheless, it’s certainly fair to say the coronavirus is a massive contributor to what was already building; but look at what was already here economically (red line), and look at what is happening in stocks (green line):
Zero Hedge
This is what I’ve meant when I said the stock market crash would easily build up spectacular momentum (as it clearly did) because it has a long way to fall to “catch down to” the actual Main Street economy. You can see in the graph above that every bubble in stocks has always fallen back to economic reality. Since this bubble (BALLOON) was stratospherically higher than the Main Street economy, it has a lot further to fall. That assures more room to build up momentum, in order to get back down to where it belongs.
The real picture, however, is really much worse than the graph because the graph shows where the economy was up to the moment when the virus first hit China. Imagine how much worse the entire global business economy is (US included) now. The market has that much further to fall to price down to match the new economic reality. Then imagine how much further the entire global economy (US included) will fall this month, and know the stock market has to fall that much further, too. Then next month as the viral-induced damage continues.
That is a summary in one snapshot of why I called this, back in January, “the most perilous stock market in history!”
Charting unexplored waters to fall off the edge of the world
Now, here are a few stats showing where we went at the tail-end of February just as all of this was beginning to take hold in Europe, Australia, and the US.
First, Zero Hedge published a hint of the jobless claims that BofA says will be quickly rising:
Looking at what people are looking for gives you a good idea of where they’re headed. Then the actual report came out and confirmed a perfect match:
That was for the week that ended on March 14. So, the last holdout in a recession that was already forming (a change in unemployment) is now fully in due to the Coronacrisis kicking our butts down into the recession hole, which we were already leaning far out over. We were an easy kick.
But it gets a lot worse quickly … almost immediately:
That is not anything compared with what is in store. David Choi, an economist from Goldman Sachs, says initial [unemployment] claims for the week ending March 21 may jump to a seasonally adjusted 2.25 million. His analysis is based on recent anecdotes from press reports as well as company announcements. Over 30 states have provided preliminary data. He said that even the most conservative assumption would be claims reaching over 1 million, which would top the record high of 695,000 in 1982. MarketWatch
And with that, the market ended its morning rest, plunged another 900 points down and closed off its worst week since the big crash of 2008.
Maybe that’s media scare, but remember GS is usually the perennial optimist as it tries to pump the market up. Of course, I wouldn’t put it past them to have shorted the whole market in order to make a vast fortune and then to stomp it down as hard as they can.
Regardless, it is fully safe to state unequivocally the virus quickly knocked down the blip of hope that had spiked onto the economic radar screens in February, taking the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey back to where it was at the end of the Great Recession:
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Bloomberg
After dealing with a long down trend since the summer of 2018 (those stimulus tax years), hopes had broken through “biggly” to the upside’ but they are now biggly lower. (From +36.7 to -12.7.) Easy come, easy go. Under the hood, this reflects a huge dump in new orders, shipments, inventories, employment, and prices received.
You can see the Empire State’s March survey looked just as bad, except that it didn’t show as much of a spike of hope in February — same protracted decline since 2018, falling off a cliff this month:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
That’s the quickest plunge in the Philadelphia Fed survey’s history — not too surprising since this is the only time in history we’ve seen nations all over the world lock down their borders (US-Canadian border even shut down now to all but commercial traffic and essential visits, and Mexico thanking us for shutting that one) and shut down air travel between nations.
Never before have we seen entire towns scattered all over the world order all non-essential businesses to shutter their doors and windows and send all employees home for a month of bed rest or work from home if they can.
Global manufacturing also took its steepest and mosts immediate plunge in history:
Again, you can see the relentless fall into recession (below “50”) from (this time the start of) 2018 with a bit of hope up that peeked ever-so-barely above recession and then over the cliff.
And all of that is why the “most perilous stock market in history” crashed into — BY FAR! — the fastest bear market in history:
So, yes, this is easily the most dire economic event we’ve crashed down into in our lifetimes, unless we you are old enough to have lived during the Great Depression, and I’d say the Great Recession 2.0 is going to be as deep as that, though probably not as long, but who knows? Who would have known an extra-bad case of the flu could shut down the entire planet so quickly?
After all, here is what happened in China:
Zero Hedge
We can expect no better than China got. However, we can expect bailouts … and lots of them. AND we can KNOW that many of them would never have been necessary even now if businesses had not spent all their repatriated profits and all their other cash piles on bailouts to make shareholders richer at the cost of making their companies far less robust for weathering bad times.
We can also KNOW that even those businesses that had no cash piles could have weathered through on cheap credit if they hadn’t maxed out their credit to buy even more bailouts to make shareholders even richer.
Isn’t that one of the reasons for having credit lines? It’s why I keep a couple of credit lines at home — to have an extra cushion or two to land on if times get rough. I’m also prudent enough to know that, if I max out my credit lines when times are good, I’m going to land on the pavement when times go bad and I need the cushions.
So … are we going to let the rich CEOs, shareholders and their banksters bail themselves out with taxpayer backing just because they sucked all the helium out of their cushions when times were fat and happy? That’s up to us! It depends on whether we do anything about it.
I hope we will.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Ranked: Global Pandemic Preparedness by Country

The world has experienced many pandemics throughout its history , but not every era has had the benefit of modern medicine and hindsight .
However , even with the readily available medical expertise and equipment that exists today , it is still unevenly distributed throughout the globe .
Combine this with a highly interconnected global economy , and large populations are still at risk from infection .
Today ’ s chart pulls data from the 2019 Global Health Security Index , which ranks 195 countries on health security .
It reveals that while there were top performers , healthcare systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak—and not prepared for new disease outbreaks .
Modern transportation and trade have linked the farthest stretches of the world to fuel a global economy .
Physical distance plays less a limiting role and more an enabling one to form a flat world as Thomas Friedman put it , creating opportunities for commerce anywhere in the world .
A person can sell dishware from his home in Cusco , Peru , online to a customer in Muncie , Indiana , with products manufactured in China , from materials sourced in Africa .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people interacting with one another to procure , manufacture , package , and distribute the goods .
The connections are not just through products , but also people and animals across many borders .
Now , add up the interactions within the global food supply chain with plants and livestock and tourism industries and place them under the pressures of climate change , urbanization , international mass displacement , and migration—and the volume and variety of opportunities for disease transmission and mutation becomes infinite .
The same pathways of global commerce become the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Dubai can become a fever in London with one flight and one day .
You Can not Manage What You Do Not Measure Despite this , we still live with national healthcare systems that look inward towards national populations , with less of a focus on integrating what is happening with the outside world .
The Global Health Security ( GHS ) Index is the first comprehensive effort to assess and benchmark health security and related capabilities by nation , and it tracks six key factors to come up with an overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the ranking : • Prevention Prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens • Detection and Reporting Early detection and reporting for epidemics of potential international concern • Rapid Response Capability of rapidly responding to and mitigating the spread of an epidemic • Health System Sufficient and robust and health system to treat the sick and protect health workers • Compliance with Global Norms Compliance with international norms by improving national capacity , financing plans to address gaps Note : The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Health Security ( JHU ) , and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit ( EIU ) .
Overall , the rankings uncover a distressing insight .
Global preparedness for both epidemics and pandemics is weak , with the average score in the index sitting at 40.2 out of 100 .
The countries with the highest scores have effective governance and politics systems in place , while those with the lowest scores fall down for their inadequate healthcare systems—even among high-income countries .
Here are the 50 highest-ranking countries in the index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of all 195 countries on the GHS Index website .
Interestingly , 81 % of countries score in the bottom tier for indicators related to biosecurity—and worse , 85 % of countries show no evidence of having completed a biological threat-focused simulation exercise in conjunction with the World Health Organization ( WHO ) in the past year .
Many healthcare systems have had their security tested with the outbreak of COVID-19 .
Although it is still extremely early , there appears to be a relationship between a nation ’ s health security and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While there may be top performers relative to other countries , the overall picture paints a grim picture that foreshadowed the current crisis we are living through .
The report outlined eight critical insights about global health security in 2019 that reveal some of the problems countries are now facing .
• National health security is fundamentally weak globally .
No country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics , and every country has important gaps to address .
• Countries are not prepared for a globally catastrophic biological event .
• There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tested important health security capacities or shown that they would be functional in a crisis .
• Most countries have not allocated funding from national budgets to fill identified preparedness gaps .
• More than half of countries face major political and security risks that could undermine national capability to combat biological threats .
• Most countries lack basic health systems capacities critical for epidemic and pandemic response .
• Coordination and training are inadequate among veterinary , wildlife , and public health professionals and policymakers .
• Improving country compliance with international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The intention of the Global Health Security Index is to encourage improvements in the planning and response to one of the world ’ s most omnipresent risks–infectious disease outbreaks .
When this report was released in 2019 , it revealed that even the highest ranking nations still had gaps to fill in preparing for a pandemic .
Of course , hindsight is 20/20 .
The COVID-19 outbreak has served as a wake-up call to health organizations and governments around the world .
Once all of the curves have been flattened , the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viewed with renewed interest .

by visualcapitalist
The world has experienced many pandemics throughout its history, but not every era has had the benefit of modern medicine and hindsight.
However, even with the readily available medical expertise and equipment that exists today, it is still unevenly distributed throughout the globe. Combine this with a highly interconnected global economy, and large populations are still at risk from infection.
Today’s chart pulls data from the 2019 Global Health Security Index, which ranks 195 countries on health security. It reveals that while there were top performers, healthcare systems around the world on average are fundamentally weak—and not prepared for new disease outbreaks.
Pathways for Commerce and Disease
Modern transportation and trade have linked the farthest stretches of the world to fuel a global economy. Physical distance plays less a limiting role and more an enabling one to form a flat world as Thomas Friedman put it, creating opportunities for commerce anywhere in the world.
A person can sell dishware from his home in Cusco, Peru, online to a customer in Muncie, Indiana, with products manufactured in China, from materials sourced in Africa.
While these connections sound sterile, there are people interacting with one another to procure, manufacture, package, and distribute the goods. The connections are not just through products, but also people and animals across many borders.
Now, add up the interactions within the global food supply chain with plants and livestock and tourism industries and place them under the pressures of climate change, urbanization, international mass displacement, and migration—and the volume and variety of opportunities for disease transmission and mutation becomes infinite.
The same pathways of global commerce become the transmission vectors for disease. A cough in Dubai can become a fever in London with one flight and one day.
You Cannot Manage What You Do Not Measure
Despite this, we still live with national healthcare systems that look inward towards national populations, with less of a focus on integrating what is happening with the outside world.
The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is the first comprehensive effort to assess and benchmark health security and related capabilities by nation, and it tracks six key factors to come up with an overall score for each of the 195 countries in the ranking:
Prevention
Prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens Detection and Reporting
Early detection and reporting for epidemics of potential international concern Rapid Response
Capability of rapidly responding to and mitigating the spread of an epidemic Health System
Sufficient and robust and health system to treat the sick and protect health workers Compliance with Global Norms
Compliance with international norms by improving national capacity, financing plans to address gaps Risk Environment
Risk environment and country vulnerability to biological threats
Note: The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Country Overall Rankings
Overall, the rankings uncover a distressing insight. Global preparedness for both epidemics and pandemics is weak, with the average score in the index sitting at 40.2 out of 100.
The countries with the highest scores have effective governance and politics systems in place, while those with the lowest scores fall down for their inadequate healthcare systems—even among high-income countries.
Here are the 50 highest-ranking countries in the index:
You can view the complete rankings of all 195 countries on the GHS Index website.
Interestingly, 81% of countries score in the bottom tier for indicators related to biosecurity—and worse, 85% of countries show no evidence of having completed a biological threat-focused simulation exercise in conjunction with the World Health Organization (WHO) in the past year.
Confirmed COVID-19 Cases vs. Global Health Security Score
Many healthcare systems have had their security tested with the outbreak of COVID-19.
Although it is still extremely early, there appears to be a relationship between a nation’s health security and its ability to cope with pandemics.
Takeaways: A World Unprepared
While there may be top performers relative to other countries, the overall picture paints a grim picture that foreshadowed the current crisis we are living through.
“It is likely that the world will continue to face outbreaks that most countries are ill positioned to combat. In addition to climate change and urbanization, international mass displacement and migration—now happening in nearly every corner of the world—create ideal conditions for the emergence and spread of pathogens.” – The Global Health Security Index, 2019
The report outlined eight critical insights about global health security in 2019 that reveal some of the problems countries are now facing.
National health security is fundamentally weak globally. No country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics, and every country has important gaps to address. Countries are not prepared for a globally catastrophic biological event. There is little evidence that most countries have tested important health security capacities or shown that they would be functional in a crisis. Most countries have not allocated funding from national budgets to fill identified preparedness gaps. More than half of countries face major political and security risks that could undermine national capability to combat biological threats. Most countries lack basic health systems capacities critical for epidemic and pandemic response. Coordination and training are inadequate among veterinary, wildlife, and public health professionals and policymakers. Improving country compliance with international health and security norms is essential.
A Stark Reality
The intention of the Global Health Security Index is to encourage improvements in the planning and response to one of the world’s most omnipresent risks–infectious disease outbreaks. When this report was released in 2019, it revealed that even the highest ranking nations still had gaps to fill in preparing for a pandemic.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20. The COVID-19 outbreak has served as a wake-up call to health organizations and governments around the world. Once all of the curves have been flattened, the next version of this report will undoubtedly be viewed with renewed interest.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Visualizing Coronavirus Disease by the Numbers (Update 20 March 2020)

The coronavirus is fundamentally changing the world before our eyes .
Our goal at HowMuch.net has always been to help @ @ @ @ @ We do that by creating beautiful data visualizations that tell a story and help people @ @ @ @ @ response to the coronavirus outbreak , we ’ re creating a new page to help @ @ @ @ @ really going on with the virus and the economy .
We will stick to the @ @ @ @ @ and avoid undue alarmism .
We ’ ll always use reliable sources for our data @ @ @ @ @ are in turmoil , entire countries are on lockdown and governments are struggling to formulate @ @ @ @ @ our mission remains the same : to help our readers better understand the world even @ @ @ @ @ Donate Now to the WHO to Help Fight the Coronavirus Donate Now to the WHO @ @ @ @ @

by howmuch
The coronavirus is fundamentally changing the world before our eyes.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Our goal at HowMuch.net has always been to help people understand the economy. We do that by creating beautiful data visualizations that tell a story and help people make better decisions. In response to the coronavirus outbreak, we’re creating a new page to help people understand what’s really going on with the virus and the economy.
We will stick to the facts as we know them and avoid undue alarmism. We’ll always use reliable sources for our data. Yes, financial markets are in turmoil, entire countries are on lockdown and governments are struggling to formulate a coherent response. But our mission remains the same: to help our readers better understand the world even as it rapidly changes.
Donate Now to the WHO to Help Fight the Coronavirus
Donate Now to the WHO to Help Fight the Coronavirus


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Texas oil producers ask state to limit output as prices collapse

So US producers have been looking for some way to end this oil price war while staying within the limits @ @ @ @ @ look likes they ’ ve approached the Texas RR commission to use their regulatory authority @ @ @ @ @ on the matter .
Though there is some opposition from people within the industry too @ @ @ @ @ hard to say if anything will come of this but the ultimate sticking point for @ @ @ @ @ lack of cuts being spread .
Obviously there ’ s no deal in place or @ @ @ @ @ status updates since this ongoing but it ’ s something to watch .

Article: www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-shale-regulation/texas-oil-producers-ask-state-to-limit-output-as-prices-collapse-idUSL1N2BD01H
So US producers have been looking for some way to end this oil price war while staying within the limits of US law and it look likes they’ve approached the Texas RR commission to use their regulatory authority to do and approach OPEC on the matter. Though there is some opposition from people within the industry too: www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/incredibly-damaging-us-oil-lobby-chief-opposes-proposal-to-have-texas-conspire-with-opec
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It’s hard to say if anything will come of this but the ultimate sticking point for the Saudis has been a lack of cuts being spread. Obviously there’s no deal in place or much in the way of status updates since this ongoing but it’s something to watch.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Marriott CEO says coronavirus is worse than the Great Depression and World War II as he cuts his sal

Marriott CEO says coronavirus is worse than the Great Depression and World War II as he cuts his salary to $0 – while Goldman Sachs says unemployment claims have already risen to TWO MILLION across the US

• Marriott CEO Arne Sorenson said coronavirus ‘ is like nothing we ’ ve ever seen before ’ and is having a greater toll than World War II on the hotel industry • He axed his own salary and slashed senior exec salaries by 50 % Friday • Goldman Sachs predicted that a record 2.25 million Americans could enter claims for unemployment benefits this week • This dwarfs Labor Department figures reported Thursday that applications had surged by 70,000 to 281,000 last week • This would also be the highest number of unemployment claims in US history , dwarfing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1982 • Best Western CEO David Kong warned that ‘ this is the worst decline that the [ hotel ] industry has ever seen ’ , with sales plummeting by 40 percent in a week • Hotel bosses met with President Trump on Tuesday , urging him to grant the industry a $ 150billion bailout to prevent more mass layoffs of staff • Coronavirus symptoms : what are they and should you see a doctor ?
The CEO of world ’ s largest hotel group Marriott has said that coronavirus is worse than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and has cut his salary to $ 0 as the hospitality industry continues to be devastated by the pandemic .
This comes as Goldman Sachs warned that unemployment claims have already risen to two million across the US , with thousands of Americans finding themselves jobless overnight .
This would mark the highest level of unemployment ever seen in US history , dwarfing the previous record of nearly 700,000 unemployment claims back in 1982 and sparking fears the nation is entering a recession .
The hospitality industry has been one of the hardest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hotel chain Best Western also warning Friday that ‘ it ’ s very bad… this is the worst decline that the industry has ever seen ’ .

Marriott CEO Arne Sorenson said coronavirus ‘is like nothing we’ve ever seen before’ and is having a greater toll than World War II on the hotel industry
He axed his own salary and slashed senior exec salaries by 50% Friday
Goldman Sachs predicted that a record 2.25 million Americans could enter claims for unemployment benefits this week
This dwarfs Labor Department figures reported Thursday that applications had surged by 70,000 to 281,000 last week
This would also be the highest number of unemployment claims in US history, dwarfing the previous record of nearly 700,000 back in 1982
Best Western CEO David Kong warned that ‘this is the worst decline that the [hotel] industry has ever seen’, with sales plummeting by 40 percent in a week
Hotel bosses met with President Trump on Tuesday, urging him to grant the industry a $150billion bailout to prevent more mass layoffs of staff
Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
The CEO of world’s largest hotel group Marriott has said that coronavirus is worse than the Great Depression and World War II and has cut his salary to $0 as the hospitality industry continues to be devastated by the pandemic.
This comes as Goldman Sachs warned that unemployment claims have already risen to two million across the US, with thousands of Americans finding themselves jobless overnight.
This would mark the highest level of unemployment ever seen in US history, dwarfing the previous record of nearly 700,000 unemployment claims back in 1982 and sparking fears the nation is entering a recession.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The hospitality industry has been one of the hardest hit, with the CEO of major hotel chain Best Western also warning Friday that ‘it’s very bad… this is the worst decline that the industry has ever seen’.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8134961/Goldman-Sachs-says-unemployment-claims-risen-TWO-MILLION.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--After the stock market crash of Oct. 29, 1929, the S&P 500 fell 86% in less than three years and did

‘ Isaacs said the 1929 Great Depression was the closest bear market comparison .
After the stock market crash of @ @ @ @ @ the S & P 500 fell 86 % in less than three years and did @ @ @ @ @ until 1954 .
“ That might coincide in mid-to-late April with some abating of the @ @ @ @ @ and we should from there get something like a short-covering rally , ” he said @ @ @ @ @ unprecedented situation , this is worse than 2008 , this is worse than 1987 , @ @ @ @ @ to hit financial markets since the Great Depression .
” ’

www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/analyst-anticipates-worst-crisis-since-1929-amid-recession-fears.html
‘Isaacs said the 1929 Great Depression was the closest bear market comparison. After the stock market crash of Oct. 29, 1929, the S&P 500 fell 86% in less than three years and did not regain its previous peak until 1954.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“That might coincide in mid-to-late April with some abating of the extreme lockdown in Europe, and we should from there get something like a short-covering rally,” he said.
“This is an unprecedented situation, this is worse than 2008, this is worse than 1987, this is the worst crisis to hit financial markets since the Great Depression.”’


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Lot of headlines, important to focus on what policies are being implemented and what it means when t

Lot of headlines , important to focus on what policies are being implemented and what it means when the clouds @ @

Lot of headlines, important to focus on what policies are being implemented and what it means when the clouds part…… t.co/MrClBfKjH9
— LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) March 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Unemployment from 2,000 to 80,000 a day in California

“ We average about 2,000 unemployment insurance claims a day , ” Newsom said .
“ Two days ago or @ @ @ @ @ about 40,000 applications .
After that 70,000 applications .
Yesterday , 80,000 unemployment applications.
” @ @ @ @ @ surprised if it reaches 150K a day by next week .
What ’ s happening @ @ @ @

by biotechvest
“We average about 2,000 unemployment insurance claims a day,” Newsom said. “Two days ago or three days, we saw about 40,000 applications. After that 70,000 applications. Yesterday, 80,000 unemployment applications.”
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I won’t be surprised if it reaches 150K a day by next week. What’s happening is unheard of.
California unemployment claims to 80,000 in a day


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Why nobody is getting a bailout

Why nobody is getting a bailout

Ok so it seems like every company and industry is coming out of the woodwork to ask the government for a bailout , from hotels to restaurants to manufacturers .
Freaking Wendy ’ s mooned 40 % yesterday because of bailout hopes .
However they fail to realize that the Trump administration is stingy af and no one is getting jack squat .
Take a look at Steve Mnuchin ’ s proposal for the airline “ bailout ” package .
The proposal consists entirely of $ 50 billion in collateralized debt and is completely worthless because the airlines can already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by encumbering their planes , without all the government strings attached .
As soon as that document came out , airline stocks plunged 20-30 % because shareholders realized they weren ’ t going to get free tendies from Uncle Sam .
Trump basically didn ’ t give the airlines shit , and this is after he talked about how he is behind them 100 % and how they ’ re a vital industry that the government needs to support .
If the airlines aren ’ t getting a bailout , do you really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , no way bub .
They ’ re all fucked .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by dethneer
Ok so it seems like every company and industry is coming out of the woodwork to ask the government for a bailout, from hotels to restaurants to manufacturers. Freaking Wendy’s mooned 40% yesterday because of bailout hopes. However they fail to realize that the Trump administration is stingy af and no one is getting jack squat. Take a look at Steve Mnuchin’s proposal for the airline “bailout” package.
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The proposal consists entirely of $50 billion in collateralized debt and is completely worthless because the airlines can already access secured debt through the open market by encumbering their planes, without all the government strings attached. As soon as that document came out, airline stocks plunged 20-30% because shareholders realized they weren’t going to get free tendies from Uncle Sam. Trump basically didn’t give the airlines shit, and this is after he talked about how he is behind them 100% and how they’re a vital industry that the government needs to support. If the airlines aren’t getting a bailout, do you really think any other industry will? Nope, no way bub. They’re all fucked.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--I’m a Leverage Finance banker, this is how I see the markets playing out.

First of all , I ’ ve lost $ 12k since yesterday mornings open .
LYV , NCLH , and SIX puts that I bought yesterday .
I ’ m not worried , I know I ’ ll be cashing before their expiration .
We ’ ve got more to fall .
A lot more .
Credit agencies have barely started their corporate downgrades yet .
No bond or loan payments have been defaulted on yet .
The bankruptcies haven ’ t started yet .
They ’ re coming .
Corporate debt was at record highs .
Balance sheets were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been levering up 7x+ ( debt/ebitda ) .
The missed revenue , and trust me it ’ ll be a substantial number , is going to cause companies to be unable to service their debts .
Many will have to restructure .
Others will be forced into a liquidation .
I work in corporate banking ( leveraged finance ) .
Trust me , I don ’ t want the markets and economy to continue to free-fall .
I will certainly be out of a job .
My loved ones and friends will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s , brokerage accounts , everything , will all be compromised .
Life as we know it will change , just as it did following the mortgage crisis .
This is the last thing I want , but I see it as inevitable .
I ’ m not a trader ( as clear by my - $ 12k lol ) , but I do work in leveraged finance within the capital markets , and as such , this is how I truly believe the situation to play out .
Disclaimer : This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by smerff
First of all, I’ve lost $12k since yesterday mornings open. LYV, NCLH, and SIX puts that I bought yesterday. I’m not worried, I know I’ll be cashing before their expiration.
We’ve got more to fall. A lot more. Credit agencies have barely started their corporate downgrades yet. No bond or loan payments have been defaulted on yet. The bankruptcies haven’t started yet. They’re coming.
Corporate debt was at record highs. Balance sheets were in trouble before this happened. Companies have been levering up 7x+ (debt/ebitda). The missed revenue, and trust me it’ll be a substantial number, is going to cause companies to be unable to service their debts. Many will have to restructure. Others will be forced into a liquidation.
I work in corporate banking (leveraged finance). Trust me, I don’t want the markets and economy to continue to free-fall. I will certainly be out of a job. My loved ones and friends will be out of jobs. Our 401k’s, brokerage accounts, everything, will all be compromised. Life as we know it will change, just as it did following the mortgage crisis.
This is the last thing I want, but I see it as inevitable. I’m not a trader (as clear by my -$12k lol), but I do work in leveraged finance within the capital markets, and as such, this is how I truly believe the situation to play out.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Stay healthy, stay safe.
Edit: my positions
NCLH 4/17/2020 $7.50p
SIX 9/18/2020 $7.50p
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--U.S. Orders Up To A Yearlong Break On Mortgage Payments

Homeowners who have lost income or their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak are getting some relief .
Depending on their situation , they should be eligible to have their mortgage payments reduced or suspended for up to 12 months .
Federal regulators , through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility .
The move covers about half of all home loans in the U.S. — those guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie .
But regulators expect that the entire mortgage industry will quickly adopt a similar policy .
Under the plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of income can qualify to make reduced payments or be granted a complete pause in payments .
“ That forbearance is up to 12 months , depending on their particular situation , ” says Mark Calabria , director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency , which oversees Fannie and Freddie .
Homeowners can ’ t just stop paying their mortgage .
“ They need to contact their servicer — that is the lender that they send the check to every month , ” he says .
“ That lender will work with them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ payment plan .
Obviously , we hope to get them back on their feet as soon as possible.
” Calabria says people in financial distress because of the coronavirus can just verbally testify to that over the phone with their lender .
Documenting the hardship can come later .
“ You ’ re not going to have to send 20 pieces of paper at the front of this , ” he says .
“ We want to do it quickly .
”

Homeowners who have lost income or their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak are getting some relief. Depending on their situation, they should be eligible to have their mortgage payments reduced or suspended for up to 12 months.
Federal regulators, through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility. The move covers about half of all home loans in the U.S. — those guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. But regulators expect that the entire mortgage industry will quickly adopt a similar policy.
Under the plan, people who have suffered a loss of income can qualify to make reduced payments or be granted a complete pause in payments.
“That forbearance is up to 12 months, depending on their particular situation,” says Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Homeowners can’t just stop paying their mortgage. “They need to contact their servicer — that is the lender that they send the check to every month,” he says. “That lender will work with them to be able to work out a payment plan. Obviously, we hope to get them back on their feet as soon as possible.”
Calabria says people in financial distress because of the coronavirus can just verbally testify to that over the phone with their lender. Documenting the hardship can come later. “You’re not going to have to send 20 pieces of paper at the front of this,” he says. “We want to do it quickly.”
www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818343720/homeowners-hurt-financially-by-the-coronavirus-may-get-a-mortgage-break


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Bank of Japan loses up to 3 Trillion Yen ($27bn) in stock ETFs. Decides to double annual purchases.

By the end of the crisis will central banks have just nationalized everything by buying up stocks and corporate bonds @ @ @ @ @ on this socialization of the means of production ?
Tokyo , March 18 ( Jiji @ @ @ @ @ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Wednesday that the amount of latent losses on exchange-traded funds held @ @ @ @ @ estimated at 2 trillion to 3 trillion yen following a recent stock sell-off amid the @ @ @ @ @ is based on the current levels of the benchmark 225-issue Nikkei average on the Tokyo @ @ @ @ @ at a meeting of the Financial Affairs Committee of the House of Councillors , the @ @ @ @ @ , the country ’ s parliament .

by SpontaneousDisorder
By the end of the crisis will central banks have just nationalized everything by buying up stocks and corporate bonds?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Who gets to vote on this socialization of the means of production?
BOJ-Held ETFs Carrying 2-3 T. Yen of Loss: Kuroda
Tokyo, March 18 (Jiji Press)–Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Wednesday that the amount of latent losses on exchange-traded funds held by the central bank is estimated at 2 trillion to 3 trillion yen following a recent stock sell-off amid the coronavirus crisis. The estimate is based on the current levels of the benchmark 225-issue Nikkei average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Kuroda said at a meeting of the Financial Affairs Committee of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of the Diet, the country’s parliament.


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Covid-19 has exposed our financial fragility

I wanted to share my thoughts on the coronavirus. Covid-19 has exposed our financial fragility "An orgy of borrowing, speculation and euphoria has left the markets on the verge of catastrophe"t.co/jisYAFEByx pic.twitter.com/lFjeONDe7D — Jonathan Tepper (@jtepper2) March 20, 2020
A shutdown just means more pain in the fall. The disease is globally dispersed. It will come back. Containment has failed. Now it's just varying degrees of mitigation. pic.twitter.com/HhG7v8yaFF — THE LONG VIEW ⚫ (@HayekAndKeynes) March 20, 2020
A wave of credit rating downgrades in the corporate sector risks deepening a funding crisis for company bosses and spreading it to other markets t.co/7zXut6v8DF — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 20, 2020
California: $3 trillion economy. New York: $1.8 trillion economy. One quarter of US GDP has just all but evaporated. — Michael McKee (@mckonomy) March 20, 2020
CORONAVIRUS: HOSPITAL IN LONDON RUNS OUT OF BEDS, DECLARES CRITICAL INCIDENT – MEDIA — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) March 20, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--Covid-19 (Coronavirus) Global Pandemic: THIS IS NOT A HOAX, THIS IS NOT JUST A “BAD FLU”

Let ’ s be clear on the details… By Matt from Silver Fortune via Silver Fortune Let ’ s be @ @ @ @

Let’s be clear on the details…
By Matt from Silver Fortune via Silver Fortune
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Let’s be clear on the details…


investmentwatchblog--2020-03-21--U.S. OIL PRICE COLLAPSE = U.S. ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

The oil price collapse is a bad omen for much worse things to follow .
The global contagion is impacting the U.S. economy and the domestic oil industry far greater than I realized just two weeks ago .
As I try to allow my analysis to “ Catch Up ” to the gravity of the situation , my new forecast of the U.S. economy and oil industry is quite dire indeed .
I don ’ t say this to panic anyone , but to provide a more “ realistic and pragmatic ” view of where we go from here over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The rapid collapse in the U.S. oil price suggests BIG TROUBLE ahead for the domestic shale oil industry .
While the low oil price is causing havoc in the shale industry , it ’ s only one component of the overall equation .
Today , oil consumption in the United States has already declined significantly due to the lockdown of many cities and areas in the country .
However , this is just the first stage of the crisis .
My gut tells me that U.S. oil consumption is likely down 25-30 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state and federal governments continue to lockdown additional cities , we may see upwards of 40-50 % drop-off in oil consumption .
It sounds outlandish , but we have to start considering the FACTS .
Here is the U.S. oil price collapse over the past five weeks : During the week of February 18th , the oil price closed at $ 53.38 .
Four weeks later , the price fell 58 % to $ 22.63… as of the close Friday .
Analysts , investors , and the public don ’ t seem to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is taking place .
According to the EIA , U.S. Energy Information Agency , the United States consumed 21.5 million barrels per day ( mbd ) of oil products as of March 13th .
Now , we don ’ t consume all of that amount domestically , some supply is exported .
From the EIA ’ s recent update , the U.S. oil refining industry supplied 16.1 mbd of gasoline , jet fuel , and diesel… but 2.2 mbd were exported .
Thus , my back of the napkin calculation suggests that U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was about 14 million mbd .
If we assume 25-30 % of gasoline , jet fuel , and diesel consumption is already cutback , that ’ s already a loss of about 4 mbd , or it will be shortly .
We have to keep an eye on the U.S. petroleum stocks over the next few weeks and month , but at some point , domestic demand destruction will eventually force the oil industry to cut back on production because… THERE WILL BE NO PLACE FOR THE OIL TO GO !
!
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just how quickly U.S. oil production will decline , NOT DUE TO THE LOW PRICE , but because the market won ’ t need it .
This is by far the MOST DAMAGING factor for the U.S. Shale Oil Industry .
Back in early 2016 , when the oil price fell briefly to the $ 20s , the U.S. Shale Oil Industry cut back on CAPEX and new wells .
However , as the oil price recovered , shale companies started to increase CAPEX spending , additional wells , and production .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the present DECLINE is not due to the low oil price , but the MASSIVE DESTRUCTION in demand .
The next chart shows how quickly U.S. Shale oil production can decline if no new wells are added : U.S. shale oil production at the end of 2018 , not including 2019 ’ s production , fell from 7.3 mbd to 3.9 mbd in just ELEVEN MONTHS !
!
LOL .
That is the natural decline rate of U.S. shale oil .
Thus , if the industry added NO NEW WELLS in 2019 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3.4 mbd .
The next chart is my estimate of where U.S. shale oil production could fall by the end of Q2 2020 : I believe U.S. shale oil production could likely collapse 2-3+ mbd by the end of Q2 2020 ( June 30th ) .
Again , there just won ’ t be any place for all this oil supply to go if the United States continues to lockdown or even declare martial law .
Already , the airlines have cut back flights at least 30-40 % , and that will increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biggest declines in Gasoline and Jet Fuel consumption .
Because we still need to move food , goods , and products around , truck traffic will remain pretty robust even though we are going to see a decline in overall semi-tractor truck traffic .
I can tell that U.S. domestic gasoline consumption is down drastically because the wholesale RBOB price closed at 61 cents today ( Friday ) .
Less than a month ago , wholesale gasoline was trading at $ 1.72 .
If we add federal and state taxes along with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see $ 1.20- $ 1.30 a gallon in most cities shortly .
One of my followers sent me a Facebook image of 99 cents in Kentucky… ALREADY !
!
Honestly , the speed to which the entire Global Economy and Financial System collapsed has taken me by surprise .
But , all we can do is try to react to what is taking place and prepare accordingly .
I now see the U.S. oil price falling to the low $ 10s… MAYBE EVEN LOWER to the SINGLE DIGITS .
Why ?
Because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gut the oil spot price until the industry curtails production .
Even though President Trump announced that the U.S. Government would start buying oil to fill the SPR – Strategic Petroleum Reserve , there are only approximately 70 million barrels of storage remaining .
If domestic consumption continues to fall by 5+ mbd , that would only take 12 days of buying to fill the SPR .
So , if you start doing some simple math… WE ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE , and I believe the market still hasn ’ t caught on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus spread peaks and declines in the next 2-3 months , the ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL DAMAGE will already have been done .
We don ’ t come back from this one .
I will be discussing future scenarios and precious metals updates here and on my SRSrocco Report Youtube Channel .
I plan to do a precious metals video update this weekend .

BY SRSROCCO
The oil price collapse is a bad omen for much worse things to follow. The global contagion is impacting the U.S. economy and the domestic oil industry far greater than I realized just two weeks ago. As I try to allow my analysis to “Catch Up” to the gravity of the situation, my new forecast of the U.S. economy and oil industry is quite dire indeed.
I don’t say this to panic anyone, but to provide a more “realistic and pragmatic” view of where we go from here over the next few weeks and months. The rapid collapse in the U.S. oil price suggests BIG TROUBLE ahead for the domestic shale oil industry. While the low oil price is causing havoc in the shale industry, it’s only one component of the overall equation.
Today, oil consumption in the United States has already declined significantly due to the lockdown of many cities and areas in the country. However, this is just the first stage of the crisis. My gut tells me that U.S. oil consumption is likely down 25-30% already… maybe more. But, as state and federal governments continue to lockdown additional cities, we may see upwards of 40-50% drop-off in oil consumption. It sounds outlandish, but we have to start considering the FACTS.
Here is the U.S. oil price collapse over the past five weeks:
During the week of February 18th, the oil price closed at $53.38. Four weeks later, the price fell 58% to $22.63… as of the close Friday. Analysts, investors, and the public don’t seem to understand just how much oil demand destruction is taking place. According to the EIA, U.S. Energy Information Agency, the United States consumed 21.5 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil products as of March 13th. Now, we don’t consume all of that amount domestically, some supply is exported.
From the EIA’s recent update, the U.S. oil refining industry supplied 16.1 mbd of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel… but 2.2 mbd were exported. Thus, my back of the napkin calculation suggests that U.S. domestic consumption of these three petroleum products was about 14 million mbd. If we assume 25-30% of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel consumption is already cutback, that’s already a loss of about 4 mbd, or it will be shortly.
We have to keep an eye on the U.S. petroleum stocks over the next few weeks and month, but at some point, domestic demand destruction will eventually force the oil industry to cut back on production because… THERE WILL BE NO PLACE FOR THE OIL TO GO!!
I don’t believe most analysts realize just how quickly U.S. oil production will decline, NOT DUE TO THE LOW PRICE, but because the market won’t need it. This is by far the MOST DAMAGING factor for the U.S. Shale Oil Industry. Back in early 2016, when the oil price fell briefly to the $20s, the U.S. Shale Oil Industry cut back on CAPEX and new wells. However, as the oil price recovered, shale companies started to increase CAPEX spending, additional wells, and production. This time around will be much different because the present DECLINE is not due to the low oil price, but the MASSIVE DESTRUCTION in demand.
The next chart shows how quickly U.S. Shale oil production can decline if no new wells are added:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
U.S. shale oil production at the end of 2018, not including 2019’s production, fell from 7.3 mbd to 3.9 mbd in just ELEVEN MONTHS!! LOL. That is the natural decline rate of U.S. shale oil. Thus, if the industry added NO NEW WELLS in 2019, the shale oil industry would have lost 3.4 mbd.
The next chart is my estimate of where U.S. shale oil production could fall by the end of Q2 2020:
I believe U.S. shale oil production could likely collapse 2-3+ mbd by the end of Q2 2020 (June 30th). Again, there just won’t be any place for all this oil supply to go if the United States continues to lockdown or even declare martial law. Already, the airlines have cut back flights at least 30-40%, and that will increase during Q2 2020. I see the biggest declines in Gasoline and Jet Fuel consumption. Because we still need to move food, goods, and products around, truck traffic will remain pretty robust even though we are going to see a decline in overall semi-tractor truck traffic.
I can tell that U.S. domestic gasoline consumption is down drastically because the wholesale RBOB price closed at 61 cents today (Friday). Less than a month ago, wholesale gasoline was trading at $1.72. If we add federal and state taxes along with the gas station profit, we are going to see $1.20-$1.30 a gallon in most cities shortly. One of my followers sent me a Facebook image of 99 cents in Kentucky… ALREADY!!
Honestly, the speed to which the entire Global Economy and Financial System collapsed has taken me by surprise. But, all we can do is try to react to what is taking place and prepare accordingly. I now see the U.S. oil price falling to the low $10s… MAYBE EVEN LOWER to the SINGLE DIGITS. Why? Because the massive demand destruction will continue to gut the oil spot price until the industry curtails production.
Even though President Trump announced that the U.S. Government would start buying oil to fill the SPR – Strategic Petroleum Reserve, there are only approximately 70 million barrels of storage remaining. If domestic consumption continues to fall by 5+ mbd, that would only take 12 days of buying to fill the SPR. So, if you start doing some simple math… WE ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE, and I believe the market still hasn’t caught on yet.
Unfortunately, even if this virus spread peaks and declines in the next 2-3 months, the ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL DAMAGE will already have been done. We don’t come back from this one.
I will be discussing future scenarios and precious metals updates here and on my SRSrocco Report Youtube Channel. I plan to do a precious metals video update this weekend.
GOOD LUCK, EVERYONE.