investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--A Pandemic Iceberg Hits the ‘Unsinkable’ U.S. Economy– A Map Ahead

The ‘ unsinkable ’ Titanic was designed to withstand a breach of four compartments , ensuring the ship would stay afloat .
On the evening of April 14 , 1912 , the ship hit an iceberg , breaching five compartments , and within two and half hours , the vessel sank .
Many investors think the U.S. economy , like the Titanic , is unsinkable as well .
Yet , we have discovered the economy can sink when the most vulnerable sector of our economy is hit – the consumer .
The country has been severely damaged by a pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Never in the history of our country have we shut down 25 % of economic output in a few weeks .
In just three short weeks , millions of people are out of work or furloughed with millions more to come .
Goldman Sachs expects an unemployment rate of 16 % or higher , levels not seen since the Great Depression .
The Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 71.0 for April from March ’ s 89.1 , the largest drop on record .
Consumers are sheltering in place , not going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , causing spending to drop precipitously as concerns about job security soar .
How did consumers become so vulnerable to a loss of income , job security , and standard of living ?
It started at least eleven years ago .
During the Great Recession , corporations and banks received federal bailout dollars close to $ 900 billion to help move bad loans off their books , shift mortgages to the Fed , and make low-interest loans available to companies .
Consumers received no relief for the reduction of the value of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with 50 % or more losses to savings and retirement plans .
Millions of homeowners lost significant amounts of equity in their homes .
Household wealth declined by $ 16.4 trillion dollars at the trough of the Great Recession in 2009 .
Corporations and the wealthy who owned corporate stocks were bailed out and consumers were not made whole .
Thus , the working class started the eleven year economic recovery in a weak financial position .
Since 2009 the working class has not enjoyed the fruits of a growing economy the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wages for the bottom 80 % have stagnated over the past eleven years .
Those people in the bottom 70 % have been left out of the increase in wealth as well , while most of the asset creation has gone to the top 30 % .
Due to a lack of income and wealth creation , many consumers turned to credit cards to sustain their standard of living .
Sales for trucks and SUVs soared in 2019 , saddling consumers with long term auto loans , some with ‘ negative equity ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new loan for more extended periods of time .
Auto loan delinquencies had been increasing prior to the present pandemic .
Do consumers have at least some savings to fall back on in the event of a financial emergency ?
No .
A survey of adults found that 41 % of workers would only have enough savings to make payments for three months if they lost their job .
Six weeks ago , the COVID -19 pandemic arrived in the U.S .
The experts told policymakers the only way to contain the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to deploy social distancing programs forcing the closure of most businesses except for essential services .
Epicenter states like California and Washington quickly called for ‘ shelter in place ’ programs .
The virus began to strike significant population centers like New York City and Detroit .
Unemployment reports show 16.7 million workers were either furloughed or unemployed just in the last three weeks .
There are many more uncounted unemployed as some workers have given up trying to apply for assistance on congested websites , and others have not yet applied .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise in the weeks ahead .
Dr. Anthony Fauci , the lead epidemiologist of the White House pandemic committee , has announced that the U.S. infection peak may be in sight .
Inflection rates have begun to fall in some big cities , so the flattened curve may be in place by May .
However , six states have not imposed lock downs opening a considerable risk of a major infection wave .
Reports from California are encouraging as experts forecast , at present rates , not all corona virus hospital beds will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a peak in May .
However , he does not expect to end the shelter-in-place policy for some months .
The following diagram shows how the first peak wave in April – May resulted in a flattened curve as a result of social distancing .
The National Academy of Sciences released a report sent to the White House recommending social distancing programs be kept in place longer than planned because of a high probability of a second wave of infection .
The second wave is likely to peak in the winter of 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ antibody test to see if people have been exposed and recovered from the virus , which will clear them for social activity .
A vaccine is being tested on humans today but is at least 14 – 18 months away from general distribution .
Los Alamos Labs released a report recommending that due to the rapid speed of the infection a combined vaccine and antibody testing program will require the participation of 83 % of the population to contain the virus finally .
When will people return to work on a large scale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return to stores or work until they are vaccinated or otherwise assured that others are not contagious .
When can we expect all workers to return to work ?
Health authorities are planning to clear workers in essential industries already traveling to the office or plant .
Next , other workers will need to be cleared for work by taking an antibody test to show if they have had the virus and have recovered or they have been vaccinated .
All of these virus programs need to be deployed on a national scale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Based on the present chaotic handling of pandemic logistics , we think testing and vaccination programs will take a long time to reach 83 % of the population .
Experts predict the earliest date for a preventative rollout is July of 2021 .
The delay in a rollout will mean a slow , steady rise of limited economic activity into 4th Quarter 2021 .
Due to the economic damage from social distancing forcing many businesses to close and high unemployment , consumer spending will be capped .
Reduced consumer spending will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the meantime , the economy will fall into a deep recession from the massive unemployment levels .
Corporations are trying to survive debt payments or find loans , and small businesses are caught in a bureaucracy to get crucial SBA loans .
During the next 18 months , the markets will be highly volatile , responding to rumors , ideas , and policies that have yet to be funded or implemented .
Even those programs which are funded are riddled in bureaucracy and not able to live up to their objectives .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their job losses and financial security .
Many will probably suffer a kind of pandemic induced Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder ( PTSD ) that will take months if not years to recover from fully .
While many workers went to homes that were safe , others went back to homes that were abusive or situations of high stress with children .
There may be workers who , as a result of the trauma of social distancing , may not be able to return to work .
Corporations will learn from the huge ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use workers remotely , reduce the number of workers to get a job done , and as a result , likely will install automation software .
It is unlikely that job creation will return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon .
After an 18 month recovery from the pandemic , Great Depression level economic consequences are likely to take much longer to fix .
The virus has unveiled a weak economy , particularly for the middle class .
The pandemic has triggered a set of downward falling financial and credit market dominoes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the highest debt level to GDP in the last 20 years .
Companies spent over $ 1 trillion in stock buybacks in 2019 , missing the opportunity to invest in new product development , increase wages , increase productivity , or save the money for an unexpected event .
Unemployment is soaring , businesses have huge debt expense overhead , consumers are burdened with student loan , credit card , and auto debt , limiting a full economic recovery .
Productivity is at new 30 year lows , requiring investments in productivity enhanced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become profitable again .
Small businesses , accounting for 60 % of all employment , are facing tight budgets , with most only having enough funding to stay in business for a month or two months before shutting down .
Federal Reserve liquidity programs fueled market speculation to historic heights driving stock market valuations to levels not seen since 2000 .
Ned Davis Research notes that market valuations are at least 20 % overvalued by stock buybacks alone .
Congress has passed an aggressive set of pandemic bills to bail out the airlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small business loans , and immediate $ 1,200 checks to adults .
The collection of bills totaling a record $ 3.1 trillion in aid will result in providing a cushion for many workers and businesses for at least the first wave of the virus infections into this summer .
States and city governments are to receive $ 400 billion in support funding .
They provide 8.5 % of GDP , so funding their operations is crucial to the economy .
Our country will have millions of workers dependent on checks from the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be reluctant to hire employees back until demand returns .
More rescue funds totaling $ 250 billion are already being discussed in Congress to help small businesses .
Small businesses report major problems in obtaining SBA loans due to terrorist and money laundering audits delaying approvals for funding as much as 30 days .
Fifty percent of all small businesses have less than one month of cash buffer days .
Many small businesses may be forced to shut down their business due to these delays .
The Federal Reserve has just announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses and to buy corporate bonds including corporate junk-rated bonds .
For small businesses that can hang on , this new Fed funding will help but only if they can access the funds in time .
Already , some restaurant businesses are shutting their doors for good after losing 90 % of their revenue in the last month , and not seeing a profitable opportunity in running a delivery-only service .
The most critical factor in getting the economy growing again is consumer spending , which drives 70 % of GDP .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chart shows credit card and debit card spending compared to the same week in 2019 .
Many sectors experienced almost a complete stop in spending while grocery , e-commerce , video conferencing , and food delivery spending surged .
So , how is consumer demand likely to build in a recessionary environment ?
Here is a list of types of workers that will be employed and provide emerging demand : • Knowledge workers will be the first consumers to feel comfortable spending as they are already receiving regular paychecks while working from home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , software , telecom , office jobs in e-Commerce , or financial services .
They will be comfortable increasing spending early in the economic cycle .
• Healthcare workers are in demand as healthcare providers will need to see patients on a returning basis , yet have discovered how to perform telemedicine appointments for simple diagnosis and treatment .
The healthcare worker group would include doctors , nurses , technicians , and office staff .
Home nurses will likely be needed as well as the population continues to age or for recovery of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ specialize in telemedicine services , employing software engineers and health care technicians will likely see their business continue as cost cutting by health care providers will make lower cost telemedicine a more cost effective alternative to office visits .
Drug company workers such as scientists , biochemists , biostatisticians will be in demand as researchers look for treatment medications , testing , and vaccine alternatives .
Drug store workers such as pharmacists and retail clerks will be in demand to keep drug stores open .
Mask , ventilator , and medical supply company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skills as well .
• City emergency services workers including police , firefighters , communications workers , and other community support services staff will be kept on by cities even with tight budgets .
State government workers in similar roles will be in demand as well .
Tax revenues are already forcing state and local governments to layoff non-essential workers .
• Grocery store clerks , managers , cashiers and butchers will be needed .
Food processors such as meat , chicken , and turkey packers will be working to hold onto staff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dairy farm managers , farmworkers , and ranchers , are required to provide food products .
Food wholesalers run by managers , and logistics staff and truckers bringing the food to grocery stores will continue to be working • Warehouse , fulfillment , and expediting workers will see job growth as many traditional retailers do not survive , leaving fewer alternatives for many consumers but to purchase merchandise online .
Amazon and Walmart plan on hiring hundreds of thousands of workers in warehousing , fulfillment , and expediting .
Workers in traditional retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Many mall landlords report up to 50 % of their tenants are not paying their rent for April .
If the reduction in consumer spending continues for a year , it is likely that most of these mall stores will close , and many mall districts close down .
Malls often use major department stores as anchor stores to bring in consumers and create floor traffic for smaller mall tenants .
Now , with department stores under siege like Macy ’ s , JC Penny , Kohls , and others , malls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Owners and workers at small businesses that will be successful in obtaining government loans , and survived limited sales for 18 months will be critical to the economy Those companies that are inventive during the lockdown will likely come out of the gate first .
For example , one enterprising barber set up a ‘ virtual hair cutting business ’ over the Internet .
She sets up a Zoom session with the client , she cuts a wig on a mannequin and then supervises the cutting of a proxy cutter on her client @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours ’ when doors open for seniors to do shopping right after the store has been disinfected .
Fabric stores are offering mask kits or willing to make masks and sell them for just their labor cost .
Owners that shift their business to demand created by the crisis and do so in a supportive manner will likely fare well .
Restaurants are running special ‘ curb ’ delivery options for patrons to call in or order over the Internet , then pick up their order at the curb .
The patron stays @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the food all boxed up , sign the credit card receipt and drive off with the meal .
Manufacturing in the U.S. was already in economic contraction before the pandemic from tariffs and slowing global demand .
Manufacturers will be slow to rehire production workers .
These workers will be last to come back to work as they need setup time for plant equipment , establishing new rules for safety and disinfecting their workplace .
The key issue will be how soon market demand will come back for their products to make manufacturing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online as most K – 12 districts have closed schools .
The districts look to open in the fall , yet tax revenues are likely to decline , and schools may need to cut back on staffing .
Higher education institutions with strong demand for admissions will likely weather the crisis well , particularly if they have well-funded endowments .
Smaller colleges dependent on campus face to face learning may be challenged in bringing students back to school .
The last workers to begin consuming in a major way are those who were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , airline , hotel , restaurant , or related services .
These hourly workers , with little savings , living on unemployment checks will try to ‘ hold on ’ until hiring resumes .
Upper middle-class consumers and visitors from other countries should start to travel when the ‘ pandemic ’ is clear .
Still , it will take time for travelers to become comfortable again in their safety .
Will the $ 1,200 checks jump-start the economy ?
No .
A Bankrate survey found that nearly a third of people said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month : Over the next 18 months , Americans are likely to see steep declines in employment and income .
Financial markets will be volatile based on rumors and news headlines about the virus as well as the coming Presidential election .
The election will not end the economic uncertainty as federal deficits to pay for a continuing series of bailouts and stimulus packages will put extreme pressure on the Federal Reserve , credit , debt , and stock markets .
After the virus situation stabilizes , the economy can begin to grow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ household income and wealth will be worse than the Great Recession .
Consumer demand based on workers returning to their offices , factories , and restaurants will be uneven , difficult to predict , and slow in returning .
We expect the economy to go through a dramatic transformation as whole sectors shift to meet demand , or decline replaced by new major consumer and services industries .
We need to look to ourselves to solve pandemic induced economic problems .
The excesses of the past that have created the highest level of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and have not worked to build and economy that works for all Americans .
The Federal Reserve has created no moral hazard for executives to speculate in stocks by buying junk corporate bonds .
Executives allocated profits and used more debt to goose the price of their company stock and increase their wealth .
Trillions of dollars that could have been spent on increasing productivity , raising wages for workers , and innovation were wasted .
Speculation , debt , and short term focus on wealth building for the 1 % put consumers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must return to the values that built an economy that works for all .
Labor needs to have equal economic power with capital .
Corporate decisions must be made based on responsibility to all the people from a long term perspective .
The pandemic has made the lack of a manifest to everyone .
Americans , under capitalism , built the most innovative , self-renewing , wealth building economy in the world .
It is the American spirit of entrepreneurship combined with invention , self-sacrifice , equal opportunity , and creativity that will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These new businesses will adjust to new social realities and pave the way for workers to gain job security and become confident enough to spend at robust levels .

by Patrick Hill
The ‘unsinkable’ Titanic was designed to withstand a breach of four compartments, ensuring the ship would stay afloat. On the evening of April 14, 1912, the ship hit an iceberg, breaching five compartments, and within two and half hours, the vessel sank. Many investors think the U.S. economy, like the Titanic, is unsinkable as well. Yet, we have discovered the economy can sink when the most vulnerable sector of our economy is hit – the consumer. The country has been severely damaged by a pandemic iceberg aimed right at the consumer. Never in the history of our country have we shut down 25% of economic output in a few weeks. In just three short weeks, millions of people are out of work or furloughed with millions more to come. Goldman Sachs expects an unemployment rate of 16% or higher, levels not seen since the Great Depression. The Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 71.0 for April from March’s 89.1, the largest drop on record. Consumers are sheltering in place, not going to work, or buying at stores, causing spending to drop precipitously as concerns about job security soar.
How did consumers become so vulnerable to a loss of income, job security, and standard of living? It started at least eleven years ago. During the Great Recession, corporations and banks received federal bailout dollars close to $900 billion to help move bad loans off their books, shift mortgages to the Fed, and make low-interest loans available to companies. Consumers received no relief for the reduction of the value of their homes, triggering millions of foreclosures, with 50% or more losses to savings and retirement plans. Millions of homeowners lost significant amounts of equity in their homes. Household wealth declined by $16.4 trillion dollars at the trough of the Great Recession in 2009. Corporations and the wealthy who owned corporate stocks were bailed out and consumers were not made whole. Thus, the working class started the eleven year economic recovery in a weak financial position.
Since 2009 the working class has not enjoyed the fruits of a growing economy the way the top 1% has benefited. Wages for the bottom 80% have stagnated over the past eleven years.
Source: RIA, 4/2/20
Those people in the bottom 70% have been left out of the increase in wealth as well, while most of the asset creation has gone to the top 30%.
Source: Federal Reserve – 7/2018
Due to a lack of income and wealth creation, many consumers turned to credit cards to sustain their standard of living. Sales for trucks and SUVs soared in 2019, saddling consumers with long term auto loans, some with ‘negative equity’ from a previous unpaid loan rolled into the new loan for more extended periods of time. Auto loan delinquencies had been increasing prior to the present pandemic.
Do consumers have at least some savings to fall back on in the event of a financial emergency? No. A survey of adults found that 41% of workers would only have enough savings to make payments for three months if they lost their job.
Source: Morning Consult, The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Shot – 4/6/20
Six weeks ago, the COVID -19 pandemic arrived in the U.S. The experts told policymakers the only way to contain the infection rate, and resulting deaths was to deploy social distancing programs forcing the closure of most businesses except for essential services. Epicenter states like California and Washington quickly called for ‘shelter in place’ programs. The virus began to strike significant population centers like New York City and Detroit. Unemployment reports show 16.7 million workers were either furloughed or unemployed just in the last three weeks. There are many more uncounted unemployed as some workers have given up trying to apply for assistance on congested websites, and others have not yet applied. The weekly claims number will continue to rise in the weeks ahead.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the lead epidemiologist of the White House pandemic committee, has announced that the U.S. infection peak may be in sight. Inflection rates have begun to fall in some big cities, so the flattened curve may be in place by May. However, six states have not imposed lock downs opening a considerable risk of a major infection wave. Reports from California are encouraging as experts forecast, at present rates, not all corona virus hospital beds will be needed. California Governor Newsom expects a peak in May. However, he does not expect to end the shelter-in-place policy for some months.
The following diagram shows how the first peak wave in April – May resulted in a flattened curve as a result of social distancing. The National Academy of Sciences released a report sent to the White House recommending social distancing programs be kept in place longer than planned because of a high probability of a second wave of infection. The second wave is likely to peak in the winter of 2020. Researchers are working to develop an antibody test to see if people have been exposed and recovered from the virus, which will clear them for social activity. A vaccine is being tested on humans today but is at least 14 – 18 months away from general distribution. Los Alamos Labs released a report recommending that due to the rapid speed of the infection a combined vaccine and antibody testing program will require the participation of 83% of the population to contain the virus finally.
Sources: FIPhysician – Patrick Hill – 4/8/20
When will people return to work on a large scale? Most people will be reluctant to return to stores or work until they are vaccinated or otherwise assured that others are not contagious. When can we expect all workers to return to work? Health authorities are planning to clear workers in essential industries already traveling to the office or plant. Next, other workers will need to be cleared for work by taking an antibody test to show if they have had the virus and have recovered or they have been vaccinated. All of these virus programs need to be deployed on a national scale for millions to be tested or vaccinated. Based on the present chaotic handling of pandemic logistics, we think testing and vaccination programs will take a long time to reach 83% of the population.
Experts predict the earliest date for a preventative rollout is July of 2021. The delay in a rollout will mean a slow, steady rise of limited economic activity into 4th Quarter 2021. Due to the economic damage from social distancing forcing many businesses to close and high unemployment, consumer spending will be capped. Reduced consumer spending will be a huge drag on economic recovery. In the meantime, the economy will fall into a deep recession from the massive unemployment levels. Corporations are trying to survive debt payments or find loans, and small businesses are caught in a bureaucracy to get crucial SBA loans. During the next 18 months, the markets will be highly volatile, responding to rumors, ideas, and policies that have yet to be funded or implemented. Even those programs which are funded are riddled in bureaucracy and not able to live up to their objectives.
Consumers are in shock at the speed of their job losses and financial security. Many will probably suffer a kind of pandemic induced Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) that will take months if not years to recover from fully. While many workers went to homes that were safe, others went back to homes that were abusive or situations of high stress with children. There may be workers who, as a result of the trauma of social distancing, may not be able to return to work.
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Corporations will learn from the huge ‘work from home’ experiment how to use workers remotely, reduce the number of workers to get a job done, and as a result, likely will install automation software. It is unlikely that job creation will return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon.
After an 18 month recovery from the pandemic, Great Depression level economic consequences are likely to take much longer to fix. The virus has unveiled a weak economy, particularly for the middle class. The pandemic has triggered a set of downward falling financial and credit market dominoes.
Prior to the pandemic, corporations had the highest debt level to GDP in the last 20 years. Companies spent over $1 trillion in stock buybacks in 2019, missing the opportunity to invest in new product development, increase wages, increase productivity, or save the money for an unexpected event. Unemployment is soaring, businesses have huge debt expense overhead, consumers are burdened with student loan, credit card, and auto debt, limiting a full economic recovery.
Productivity is at new 30 year lows, requiring investments in productivity enhanced systems and services to allow companies to become profitable again. Small businesses, accounting for 60% of all employment, are facing tight budgets, with most only having enough funding to stay in business for a month or two months before shutting down. Federal Reserve liquidity programs fueled market speculation to historic heights driving stock market valuations to levels not seen since 2000. Ned Davis Research notes that market valuations are at least 20% overvalued by stock buybacks alone.
A Map Ahead
Congress has passed an aggressive set of pandemic bills to bail out the airlines, provide sick leave to workers, small business loans, and immediate $1,200 checks to adults. The collection of bills totaling a record $3.1 trillion in aid will result in providing a cushion for many workers and businesses for at least the first wave of the virus infections into this summer. States and city governments are to receive $400 billion in support funding. They provide 8.5% of GDP, so funding their operations is crucial to the economy. Our country will have millions of workers dependent on checks from the government, increasing federal budget deficits while corporations will be reluctant to hire employees back until demand returns.
More rescue funds totaling $250 billion are already being discussed in Congress to help small businesses. Small businesses report major problems in obtaining SBA loans due to terrorist and money laundering audits delaying approvals for funding as much as 30 days. Fifty percent of all small businesses have less than one month of cash buffer days. Many small businesses may be forced to shut down their business due to these delays. The Federal Reserve has just announced $2.3 trillion for small and medium businesses and to buy corporate bonds including corporate junk-rated bonds. For small businesses that can hang on, this new Fed funding will help but only if they can access the funds in time. Already, some restaurant businesses are shutting their doors for good after losing 90% of their revenue in the last month, and not seeing a profitable opportunity in running a delivery-only service.
The most critical factor in getting the economy growing again is consumer spending, which drives 70% of GDP. For the week ending April 1st the following chart shows credit card and debit card spending compared to the same week in 2019. Many sectors experienced almost a complete stop in spending while grocery, e-commerce, video conferencing, and food delivery spending surged.
Sources: Ernst Research, New York Times – 4/11/20
So, how is consumer demand likely to build in a recessionary environment? Here is a list of types of workers that will be employed and provide emerging demand:
Knowledge workers will be the first consumers to feel comfortable spending as they are already receiving regular paychecks while working from home. These workers are in Internet services, software, telecom, office jobs in e-Commerce, or financial services. They will be comfortable increasing spending early in the economic cycle.
Healthcare workers are in demand as healthcare providers will need to see patients on a returning basis, yet have discovered how to perform telemedicine appointments for simple diagnosis and treatment. The healthcare worker group would include doctors, nurses, technicians, and office staff. Home nurses will likely be needed as well as the population continues to age or for recovery of COVID – 19 patients. Companies that specialize in telemedicine services, employing software engineers and health care technicians will likely see their business continue as cost cutting by health care providers will make lower cost telemedicine a more cost effective alternative to office visits. Drug company workers such as scientists, biochemists, biostatisticians will be in demand as researchers look for treatment medications, testing, and vaccine alternatives. Drug store workers such as pharmacists and retail clerks will be in demand to keep drug stores open. Mask, ventilator, and medical supply company workers will see firm demand for their skills as well.
City emergency services workers including police, firefighters, communications workers, and other community support services staff will be kept on by cities even with tight budgets. State government workers in similar roles will be in demand as well. Tax revenues are already forcing state and local governments to layoff non-essential workers.
Grocery store clerks, managers, cashiers and butchers will be needed. Food processors such as meat, chicken, and turkey packers will be working to hold onto staff. Food suppliers, including farmers, dairy farm managers, farmworkers, and ranchers, are required to provide food products. Food wholesalers run by managers, and logistics staff and truckers bringing the food to grocery stores will continue to be working
Warehouse, fulfillment, and expediting workers will see job growth as many traditional retailers do not survive, leaving fewer alternatives for many consumers but to purchase merchandise online. Amazon and Walmart plan on hiring hundreds of thousands of workers in warehousing, fulfillment, and expediting. Workers in traditional retail will continue to see job prospects dim. Many mall landlords report up to 50% of their tenants are not paying their rent for April. If the reduction in consumer spending continues for a year, it is likely that most of these mall stores will close, and many mall districts close down. Malls often use major department stores as anchor stores to bring in consumers and create floor traffic for smaller mall tenants. Now, with department stores under siege like Macy’s, JC Penny, Kohls, and others, malls will lose their customer base.
Owners and workers at small businesses that will be successful in obtaining government loans, and survived limited sales for 18 months will be critical to the economy Those companies that are inventive during the lockdown will likely come out of the gate first. For example, one enterprising barber set up a ‘virtual hair cutting business’ over the Internet. She sets up a Zoom session with the client, she cuts a wig on a mannequin and then supervises the cutting of a proxy cutter on her client. Grocery stores are offering ‘senior hours’ when doors open for seniors to do shopping right after the store has been disinfected. Fabric stores are offering mask kits or willing to make masks and sell them for just their labor cost. Owners that shift their business to demand created by the crisis and do so in a supportive manner will likely fare well. Restaurants are running special ‘curb’ delivery options for patrons to call in or order over the Internet, then pick up their order at the curb. The patron stays in their car, and they receive the food all boxed up, sign the credit card receipt and drive off with the meal.
Manufacturing in the U.S. was already in economic contraction before the pandemic from tariffs and slowing global demand. Manufacturers will be slow to rehire production workers. These workers will be last to come back to work as they need setup time for plant equipment, establishing new rules for safety and disinfecting their workplace. The key issue will be how soon market demand will come back for their products to make manufacturing runs profitable.
Teachers have been working online as most K – 12 districts have closed schools. The districts look to open in the fall, yet tax revenues are likely to decline, and schools may need to cut back on staffing. Higher education institutions with strong demand for admissions will likely weather the crisis well, particularly if they have well-funded endowments. Smaller colleges dependent on campus face to face learning may be challenged in bringing students back to school.
The last workers to begin consuming in a major way are those who were most vulnerable during the pandemic in travel, airline, hotel, restaurant, or related services. These hourly workers, with little savings, living on unemployment checks will try to ‘hold on’ until hiring resumes. Upper middle-class consumers and visitors from other countries should start to travel when the ‘pandemic’ is clear. Still, it will take time for travelers to become comfortable again in their safety.
Will the $1,200 checks jump-start the economy? No. A Bankrate survey found that nearly a third of people said the check would sustain financial well-being about a month:
Source: Bankrate – 3/30/20
Over the next 18 months, Americans are likely to see steep declines in employment and income. Financial markets will be volatile based on rumors and news headlines about the virus as well as the coming Presidential election. The election will not end the economic uncertainty as federal deficits to pay for a continuing series of bailouts and stimulus packages will put extreme pressure on the Federal Reserve, credit, debt, and stock markets. After the virus situation stabilizes, the economy can begin to grow. But, the financial damage to household income and wealth will be worse than the Great Recession. Consumer demand based on workers returning to their offices, factories, and restaurants will be uneven, difficult to predict, and slow in returning. We expect the economy to go through a dramatic transformation as whole sectors shift to meet demand, or decline replaced by new major consumer and services industries.
We need to look to ourselves to solve pandemic induced economic problems. The excesses of the past that have created the highest level of wealth and income inequality since 1929, and have not worked to build and economy that works for all Americans. The Federal Reserve has created no moral hazard for executives to speculate in stocks by buying junk corporate bonds. Executives allocated profits and used more debt to goose the price of their company stock and increase their wealth. Trillions of dollars that could have been spent on increasing productivity, raising wages for workers, and innovation were wasted. Speculation, debt, and short term focus on wealth building for the 1% put consumers in a vulnerable economic position.
We must return to the values that built an economy that works for all. Labor needs to have equal economic power with capital. Corporate decisions must be made based on responsibility to all the people from a long term perspective. The pandemic has made the lack of a labor safety net manifest to everyone. Americans, under capitalism, built the most innovative, self-renewing, wealth building economy in the world. It is the American spirit of entrepreneurship combined with invention, self-sacrifice, equal opportunity, and creativity that will build the businesses of the future. These new businesses will adjust to new social realities and pave the way for workers to gain job security and become confident enough to spend at robust levels.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--The excellent and epic Swiss-Propaganda-Research page “Covid-19 Facts” is, thankfully, still being u

The excellent and epic Swiss-Propaganda-Research page “Covid-19 Facts” is, thankfully, still being updated. Essential reading during this worldwide phenomenon. Here’s the latest…

• In the British Telegraph , Professor Alexander Kekulé , one of Germany ’ s leading microbiologists and epidemiologists , calls for an end to the lockdown as it causes more damage than the virus itself .
In people under 50 years of age , severe disease or death are „ very , very unlikely “ .
The general population should develop rapid immunity , while risk groups should be protected .
One can not wait for a vaccine , which will take at least six to twelve months , but must find a way to live with the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ German Network for Evidence-Based Medicine reports that the lethality of a severe seasonal influenza ( flu ) such as 2017/2018 is estimated by the German Robert Koch Institute to be 0.4 % to 0.5 % , and not only 0.1 % as previously assumed .
This would mean that the lethality of Covid19 could even be lower than that of a strong seasonal influenza , even though it may spread faster .
• The Luxembourger Tageblatt reports that Sweden ’ s „ relaxed strategy on Covid19 seems to work “ .
Despite minimal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ „ clearly calming down at the moment “ .
A huge field hospital that was set up near Stockholm remains closed due to lack of demand .
The number of patients in intensive care units remains constant at a low level or is even slightly declining .
„ There are many vacancies in intensive care units in all Stockholm hospitals .
We are approaching the flattening of the illness curve , “ explained a senior physician at the Karolinska Klinik .
So far there have been about 900 deaths with Covid19 in Sweden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK ( with lockdown ) and Sweden ( without lockdown ) shows that the two countries are almost identical in terms of case numbers and deaths per population .
• A letter to the New England Journal of Medicine reports that in a study of pregnant women , 88 % of test-positive women showed no symptoms – a very high figure , but one that is consistent with earlier reports from China and Iceland .
• Professor Dan Yamin , director of the Epidemiology Research Laboratory at Tel Aviv University , explains in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is „ hardly dangerous “ for a large part of the population and that rapid natural immunity must be the goal .
The money is better spent on extending a clinic than on paying for damages due to the lockdown , he said .
• The president of the Israeli National Research Council , Professor Isaac Ben-Israel , argues that according to current findings , the corona epidemic is over in most countries after about 8 weeks , regardless of the measures taken .
He therefore recommends to lift the „ lockdown “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ David Spiegelhalter shows that the risk of death from Covid19 corresponds roughly to normal mortality and is visibly increased only for the age group between approx .
70 and 80 years ( see the graph at the end of the linked article ) .
• Professor Karin Moelling , emeritus director of the Institute of Virology at the University of Zurich and an early critic of excessive measures , stresses in a new interview the role of local special factors such as air pollution and population density .
• The British Guardian pointed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Chinese cities kills 4000 people per day .
This is more than China has so far reported in total Covid19 deaths .
• The German virologist Hendrik Streeck has defended himself against criticism of his pilot study .
Streeck found a lethality ( based on cases ) of 0.37 % and a mortality ( based on population ) of 0.06 % , which corresponds to a strong seasonal flu .
• Austrian internal medicine specialists warn of „ collateral damage “ : Due to the coronavirus , control and operation dates are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ symptoms come to the hospitals .
• A Swiss biophysicist has for the first time graphically depicted the rate of positive Covid19 tests in Switzerland since early March .
The result shows that the positive rate oscillates between about 10 % and 25 % and that the „ lockdown “ has had no significant influence ( see graph below ) .
Interestingly , Swiss authorities and media have never shown this graph .
• A Swiss researcher has analysed the latest Covid19 report of the Federal Office of Public Health and again comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation report is unsuitable for politicians and competent decision making , is highly unspecific , incomplete and lacking in informative value “ .
• In a new article , the Swiss chief physician for infectiology , Dr. Pietro Vernazza , explains that the alleged lack of immunity formation in Covid19 is a matter of „ rare individual cases or even just clues “ , which „ on closer inspection do not pose a problem “ , but which are „ exaggerated and hastily dished up as shocking news “ by some media .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and more reports of suicides out of fear of the coronavirus or out of fear of having infected someone with the coronavirus .
• The new French site Covid Infos critically examines Covid19 and media reporting .
Swiss positive test rate before and during lockdown ( FS ) • On the US warship Theodore Roosevelt , 600 sailors tested positive for Covid19 , and a first sailor has since died from or with Covid19 .
The warship will be a very important „ case study “ for the impact on the healthy general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ British professor of pathology , Dr John Lee , argues that a robust and evidence-based debate is needed to avoid „ big mistakes “ .
Many of the figures used by governments and the media have not been reliable , he says .
• In the UK , 40 % of hospital beds are currently unoccupied , four times more than usual .
The reason for this is the sharp decline in general patient admissions .
Intensive care beds , whose capacity has been increased , are on average 78 % occupied .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are in quarantine .
• The temporary corona hospitals of the US military near New York are „ largely empty “ so far .
The hospitalization rate in New York was overestimated by a factor of seven .
• A US study comes to the conclusion that the new corona virus has already spread much further than originally assumed , but causes no or only mild symptoms in most people , so that the lethality rate could be as low as 0.1 % , which is roughly equivalent to seasonal flu .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease is more easily transmitted , the cases of the disease in New York , for example , occurred in a shorter time than usual .
• In a new document on the treatment of Covid19 patients , the chief of pneumology and intensive care at Eastern Virginia Medical School states : „ It is important to recognize that COVID-19 does not cause your “ typical ARDS ” ( lung failure ) … this disease must be treated differently and it is likely we are exacerbating this situation by causing ventilator induced lung @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a governor claimed an infant died „ of Covid “ as the world ’ s youngest victim .
Family acquaintances , however , stated that the infant had suffocated in a tragic accident at home and subsequently tested positive in hospital .
The responsible coroner did not declare a Covid death .
• A doctor from the US state of Montana explained in a speech how death certificates for suspected Covid19 cases are being manipulated due to new guidelines .
• An analysis of data from five European countries shows that residents of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between 42 % and 57 % of all „ Covid19 deaths “ .
At the same time , three US studies show that up to 50 % of all test positive nursing home residents did not ( yet ) show symptoms at the time of testing .
Two conclusions can be drawn from this : On the one hand , the danger of the new coronavirus – as already suspected – seems to be concentrated on a small , very vulnerable population group that needs even better protection .
On the other hand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these people may not die , or not only die from the coronavirus , but also from the extreme stress associated with the current situation .
Recent reports from Germany and Italy have already mentioned nursing home residents who died suddenly without symptoms .
• A German palliative physician argues in a recent interview that in the treatment of Covid19 patients „ very wrong priorities were set and all ethical principles were violated “ .
There is a „ very one-sided orientation towards intensive care “ , although „ the balance between benefit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A new diagnosis ( i.e .
Covid19 ) would turn elderly patients who in the past had mostly been treated palliatively into intensive care patients and subject them to a painful but often hopeless treatment ( i.e .
artificial respiration ) .
The treatment should always be based on the actual will of the patient , the specialist argued .
• In Germany , a medical lawyer who filed a complaint against the corona measures with the Federal Constitutional Court and called for demonstrations , was arrested and sent to a prison @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public prosecutor is investigating for „ public provocation to commit crimes “ .
Another lawyer asks in an open letter to the German Federal Chamber of Lawyers : „ Lawyers sent to psychiatric hospital for protest ?
Is it that time again in Germany ?
“ • In Switzerland , a „ corona critical “ doctor was arrested by a special police unit for alleged „ threats against relatives and authorities “ and sent to a psychiatric clinic .
The family has since declared that there were no threats against relatives .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accused of „ threats against authorities “ during the interrogation .
The police justified the deployment of the special unit by assuming that the doctor was in possession of a weapon – but this was the usual Swiss medical army pistol without ammunition .
The transfer of the doctor to a psychiatric clinic was justified on the grounds of an alleged „ incapacity to serve in prison “ ( as is the case of nursing patients ) – this , too , may be seen as a pretext .
Based on the current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible that the measure was indeed politically motivated .
Former US Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney has already drawn attention to the Swiss case that is somewhat reminiscent of practices in the former Soviet Union .
• Italy is now using European satellite data to monitor the population during lockdown .
• The British police smashed in a resident ’ s door looking for „ social gatherings “ .
• German constitutional law expert Professor Oliver Lepsius : „ On the decline of fundamental rights in the corona pandemic “ .
Disclaimer : This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by clemaneuverers
April 15, 2020
Medical updates
Swiss positive test rate before and during lockdown (FS)
US and UK
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Nursing homes
An analysis of data from five European countries shows that residents of nursing homes have so far accounted for between 42% and 57% of all „Covid19 deaths“. At the same time, three US studies show that up to 50% of all test positive nursing home residents did not (yet) show symptoms at the time of testing. Two conclusions can be drawn from this: On the one hand, the danger of the new coronavirus – as already suspected – seems to be concentrated on a small, very vulnerable population group that needs even better protection. On the other hand, it is conceivable that some of these people may not die, or not only die from the coronavirus, but also from the extreme stress associated with the current situation. Recent reports from Germany and Italy have already mentioned nursing home residents who died suddenly without symptoms.
A German palliative physician argues in a recent interview that in the treatment of Covid19 patients „very wrong priorities were set and all ethical principles were violated“. There is a „very one-sided orientation towards intensive care“, although „the balance between benefit and harm“ is often not good. A new diagnosis (i.e. Covid19) would turn elderly patients who in the past had mostly been treated palliatively into intensive care patients and subject them to a painful but often hopeless treatment (i.e. artificial respiration). The treatment should always be based on the actual will of the patient, the specialist argued.
Covid19 deaths in nursing homes (LTC Covid)
Political developments
SOURCE
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--As The Bottom 60% Lose Lives & Livelihoods, The Fed & The Top 10% Cheer Market Rebound

If you have any doubt that the Fed and Wall Street will some day be dismantled , please re-read this “ real life in America ” list again .
The pandemic is a stark , brutal spotlight on income/wealth inequality in America : while the top 10 % who own the majority of the nation ’ s wealth cheer the Federal Reserve ’ s relentless pimping of the stock market , the bottom 60 % –America ’ s vast underclass of low-paid , marginalized , gig-economy , Amazon warehouse precarious proletariats ( precariats ) – are losing their livelihoods and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ravages the ranks of those who can not work at home and those whose health is impaired by the ceaseless struggle to survive in Unequal America .
The inequality isn ’ t just in wealth and income ; it ’ s in what that wealth and income can buy– stability , security and better health .
While there are plenty of wealthy Americans in poor health , there ’ s no getting past the reality that those with big incomes , 7-figure net worths and gold-plated healthcare insurance paid by their employer or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rats , hire personal trainers , get regular dental care , eat costly delicacies from Whole Foods ( Whole Paycheck to precariats ) –in other words , everything needed ( including the financial security that enables a good night ’ s sleep ) to be slim and healthy .
America ’ s vast Underclass is dying in the pandemic because their health is impaired by inequality .
As long as there are plenty of precariats earning less than $ 30,000 a year to walk their dog , empty Mom ’ s bedpan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fulfillment center , ” a.k.a .
21st century sweatshop , deliver their groceries from Whole Foods , drive their Uber ride , clean their McMansions , etc.
, the top 10 % could care less about inequality in America .
Like the Fed , their focus is on the stock market , their free money machine : thanks to the Fed , your wealth doubles or triples without actually having to produce any value at all .
The excuse is the wealth effect : the Fed ’ s pimping of the top 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the top 10 % the financial “ animal spirits ” confidence to buy , buy , buy services that create all those precariat jobs .
Here ’ s a brief primer for all the top 10 % ers who have no idea of what life is like for America ’ s 60 % Underclass : 1 .
Income is insecure as shift/hours per week/gigs are all uncertain .
2 .
When you are at your job , you ’ re overloaded with work : the pressure never lets up .
4 .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ labors : low pay , no stock options , supervisors pressured to fire people , not praise them .
5 .
There ’ s no trust or community at work ; you ’ re either competing for miserable pay in the gig economy , or you work with a constantly shifting mix of people .
There ’ s no trust or support .
6 .
Every day is an object lesson in unfairness : all you see are workers being treated unfairly while invisible bosses skim huge paychecks or millions/billions in stock options @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or have pride in your work because the product/service is garbage , as defined and dictated by your overlords , who care only about maximizing profit by whatever means are available , i.e .
lowering quality and hiding this from customers .
8 .
There are few avenues for advancement , unless you want to become a slave-driving crew chief for another lousy dollar or two an hour .
9 .
There ’ s no way to get ahead , as your wobbly paycheck barely covers expenses , and any savings are wiped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , desperation-soaked loans to relatives , etc .
10 .
The constant overwork and all the anxieties of economic insecurity have undermined your health .
If you have any doubt that the Fed and Wall Street will some day be dismantled , please re-read this “ real life in America ” list as many times as needed to break through the obsession with the free money machine of a Fed-pimped euphoric stock market .
The pandemic might yet have a positive consequence if America ’ s vast Underclass eventually decides that enough is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Will You Be Richer or Poorer ?
: Profit , Power , and AI in a Traumatized World ( $ 13 ) ( Kindle $ 6.95 , print $ 11.95 ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
Pathfinding our Destiny : Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ( $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 12 ( print ) , $ 13.08 ( audiobook ) : Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher : The Disappearance of Drake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8.95 ( print ) ; read the first chapters for free ( PDF ) Money and Work Unchained $ 6.95 ( Kindle ) , $ 15 ( print ) Read the first section for free ( PDF ) .
If you found value in this content , please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $ 1/month patron of my work via patreon.com .

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
If you have any doubt that the Fed and Wall Street will some day be dismantled, please re-read this “real life in America” list again.
The pandemic is a stark, brutal spotlight on income/wealth inequality in America: while the top 10% who own the majority of the nation’s wealth cheer the Federal Reserve’s relentless pimping of the stock market, the bottom 60%–America’s vast underclass of low-paid, marginalized, gig-economy, Amazon warehouse precarious proletariats (precariats)– are losing their livelihoods and tragically, their lives as the pandemic ravages the ranks of those who cannot work at home and those whose health is impaired by the ceaseless struggle to survive in Unequal America.
The inequality isn’t just in wealth and income; it’s in what that wealth and income can buy– stability, security and better health. While there are plenty of wealthy Americans in poor health, there’s no getting past the reality that those with big incomes, 7-figure net worths and gold-plated healthcare insurance paid by their employer or family-owned enterprise can afford to be gym rats, hire personal trainers, get regular dental care, eat costly delicacies from Whole Foods (Whole Paycheck to precariats)–in other words, everything needed (including the financial security that enables a good night’s sleep) to be slim and healthy.
America’s vast Underclass is dying in the pandemic because their health is impaired by inequality.
As long as there are plenty of precariats earning less than $30,000 a year to walk their dog, empty Mom’s bedpan, ship their order from an Amazon “fulfillment center,” a.k.a. 21st century sweatshop, deliver their groceries from Whole Foods, drive their Uber ride, clean their McMansions, etc., the top 10% could care less about inequality in America.
Like the Fed, their focus is on the stock market, their free money machine: thanks to the Fed, your wealth doubles or triples without actually having to produce any value at all.
The excuse is the wealth effect: the Fed’s pimping of the top 10%’s free money machine gives the top 10% the financial “animal spirits” confidence to buy, buy, buy services that create all those precariat jobs.
Here’s a brief primer for all the top 10%ers who have no idea of what life is like for America’s 60% Underclass:
1. Income is insecure as shift/hours per week/gigs are all uncertain. 2. When you are at your job, you’re overloaded with work: the pressure never lets up. 3. You have long commutes, long hours. 4. There are insufficient rewards and recognition for your labors: low pay, no stock options, supervisors pressured to fire people, not praise them. 5. There’s no trust or community at work; you’re either competing for miserable pay in the gig economy, or you work with a constantly shifting mix of people. There’s no trust or support. 6. Every day is an object lesson in unfairness: all you see are workers being treated unfairly while invisible bosses skim huge paychecks or millions/billions in stock options. 7. You cannot value or have pride in your work because the product/service is garbage, as defined and dictated by your overlords, who care only about maximizing profit by whatever means are available, i.e. lowering quality and hiding this from customers. 8. There are few avenues for advancement, unless you want to become a slave-driving crew chief for another lousy dollar or two an hour. 9. There’s no way to get ahead, as your wobbly paycheck barely covers expenses, and any savings are wiped out by dental emergencies, car repairs, desperation-soaked loans to relatives, etc. 10. The constant overwork and all the anxieties of economic insecurity have undermined your health.
If you have any doubt that the Fed and Wall Street will some day be dismantled, please re-read this “real life in America” list as many times as needed to break through the obsession with the free money machine of a Fed-pimped euphoric stock market.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The pandemic might yet have a positive consequence if America’s vast Underclass eventually decides that enough is enough.
* * *
My recent books:
Audiobook edition now available:
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
(Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
* * *
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Peter Schiff: This ‘Is’ A Financial Crisis

A lot of people in the mainstream still insist this isn ’ t a financial crisis like we saw in 2008 .
They say this is just a self-inflicted shutdown of the economy .
Since we decided to shut it down , we can decide to start it back up again .
Peter Schiff begs to differ .
In his podcast , he explains that this is absolutely a financial crisis and it ’ s going to be worse than 2008 .
Stocks fell yesterday ( April 15 ) on dour economic news and the financials led the plunge .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ market rally on Monday , the financials lagged .
Peter called them the Achilles Heel in that Monday surge .
This is significant because the financial sector is the key to the US economy .
This becomes clear when you look at the consumer debt numbers .
Americans were already leveraged up to their eyeballs before coronavirus spurred a government lockdown of the economy .
Why are banks in trouble ?
Because people are defaulting on their loans .
In fact , there was already trouble in the subprime markets before COVID-19 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ defaults were rising .
That will only increase with millions of people suddenly unemployed .
Obviously , if people aren ’ t earning as much money as they were when they were working , especially small businesses , they ’ re not paying their loans .
So , the banks are not getting interest payments .
They ’ re getting defaults… When you have a credit bubble , when the economy is built on a foundation of debt , and then something happens to shake that foundation , you have a big problem.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ selling off on the stock market is evidence of this problem .
The mainstream pundits were insisting this wasn ’ t going to be a financial crisis like 2008 .
They said the problem was just the shutdown of the economy due to the pandemic .
If you shut down the economy , how do all the people with debt pay their debt ?
And if the debt isn ’ t being paid , then by definition , you have a financial crisis .
That ’ s why the real estate crisis was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t because real estate prices went down .
It ’ s because real estate prices going down meant loans that were collateralized by real estate weren ’ t getting repaid .
And to the extent that the banks had to foreclose , the collateral wasn ’ t there to make the banks whole .
The same thing is happening now .
The banks are even more exposed today than they were in 2008 .
This is an even bigger crisis now than it was in 2008 because we have a lot more debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are in trouble.
” Peter said the Fed ’ s response is an indication that this is a worse financial crisis than 2008 .
The Fed is doing everything it did during the last financial crisis except way bigger and way sooner .
So , if they ’ re doing all the same stuff , only they ’ re having to do more of it , they ’ re having to do it at even greater excess , then what does that tell you ?
That tells you this is a financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ except it ’ s bigger .
It ’ s a worse financial crisis.
” A lot of people seem to think that just because the economic shutdown was on purpose , it ’ s not that big of a problem .
Since it was self-inflicted , it ’ s not a real recession .
It ’ s not a real economic collapse .
It ’ s not that businesses are closing because the economy is bad .
We just decided to shut them down .
Therefore , we can just decide to open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not that simple .
We aren ’ t going to just flip a switch and everybody will start spending again .
Peter said he thinks this has been a wakeup call for a lot of people that they need some savings .
And of course , a lot of people won ’ t be able to go back to work because their employers will never open up again .
The point is that to expect that just when we turn this economy back on like we turn a key and say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to work , ’ that everybody ’ s going back .
They ’ re not .
The bubble popped .
This bubble is not going to reflate just because somebody decides we can all come out of our houses and we don ’ t have to social distance or self-quarantine .
It ’ s not going to happen .
But again , the other thing that people are missing when they say that this wound is self-inflicted — who cares ?
It doesn ’ t matter that the wound is self-inflicted .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Look , if I grab a knife and I stab myself in the chest , I ’ m not OK because the wound is self-inflicted… It doesn ’ t matter how I got stabbed .
What matters is I have a knife in my chest and I ’ m bleeding .
So , I can ’ t just ignore the wound because I was dumb enough to stab myself.
” Peter went on to highlight all of the dismal economic data that came out .
It shows just how serious that wound @ @

Via SchiffGold.com,
A lot of people in the mainstream still insist this isn’t a financial crisis like we saw in 2008. They say this is just a self-inflicted shutdown of the economy. Since we decided to shut it down, we can decide to start it back up again. Peter Schiff begs to differ. In his podcast, he explains that this is absolutely a financial crisis and it’s going to be worse than 2008.
Stocks fell yesterday (April 15) on dour economic news and the financials led the plunge. In fact, even during the stock market rally on Monday, the financials lagged. Peter called them the Achilles Heel in that Monday surge.
This is significant because the financial sector is the key to the US economy.
They shouldn’t be, but they are, because we have a bubble economy. We have an economy based on credit, based on debt. So, not people spending the money they earned, but spending the money they didn’t earn but they borrowed.”
This becomes clear when you look at the consumer debt numbers. Americans were already leveraged up to their eyeballs before coronavirus spurred a government lockdown of the economy.
What is at the heart of the bubble, other than the Federal Reserve which is pumping all the blood through the body of the economy, but it’s pumping it through the heart of the banking sector. So, when you’re seeing this cardiac arrest in the banking sector, this is a sign that there’s trouble brewing here when the banks are having so much trouble.”
Why are banks in trouble? Because people are defaulting on their loans. In fact, there was already trouble in the subprime markets before COVID-19. Both subprime credit card and auto loan defaults were rising. That will only increase with millions of people suddenly unemployed.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Obviously, if people aren’t earning as much money as they were when they were working, especially small businesses, they’re not paying their loans. So, the banks are not getting interest payments. They’re getting defaults… When you have a credit bubble, when the economy is built on a foundation of debt, and then something happens to shake that foundation, you have a big problem.”
The fact that the banks are selling off on the stock market is evidence of this problem.
That’s why I said from day one, this is a financial crisis.”
The mainstream pundits were insisting this wasn’t going to be a financial crisis like 2008. They said the problem was just the shutdown of the economy due to the pandemic.
If you shut down the economy, how do all the people with debt pay their debt? And if the debt isn’t being paid, then by definition, you have a financial crisis. That’s why the real estate crisis was a financial crisis. It wasn’t because real estate prices went down. It’s because real estate prices going down meant loans that were collateralized by real estate weren’t getting repaid. And to the extent that the banks had to foreclose, the collateral wasn’t there to make the banks whole. The same thing is happening now. The banks are even more exposed today than they were in 2008. This is an even bigger crisis now than it was in 2008 because we have a lot more debt. We have a lot more borrowers who are in trouble.”
Peter said the Fed’s response is an indication that this is a worse financial crisis than 2008.
The Fed is doing everything it did during the last financial crisis except way bigger and way sooner. So, if they’re doing all the same stuff, only they’re having to do more of it, they’re having to do it at even greater excess, then what does that tell you? That tells you this is a financial crisis just like the last one, except it’s bigger. It’s a worse financial crisis.”
A lot of people seem to think that just because the economic shutdown was on purpose, it’s not that big of a problem. Since it was self-inflicted, it’s not a real recession. It’s not a real economic collapse. It’s not that businesses are closing because the economy is bad. We just decided to shut them down. Therefore, we can just decide to open everything back up. Peter said it’s not that simple.
We just can’t make that decision. And even if we could, consumers are not necessarily going to behave the way they did before the virus right away after the virus. Even if they want to, they’re not going to have the resources to do it.”
We aren’t going to just flip a switch and everybody will start spending again. Peter said he thinks this has been a wakeup call for a lot of people that they need some savings. And of course, a lot of people won’t be able to go back to work because their employers will never open up again.
The point is that to expect that just when we turn this economy back on like we turn a key and say, ‘OK everybody, go back to work,’ that everybody’s going back. They’re not. The bubble popped. This bubble is not going to reflate just because somebody decides we can all come out of our houses and we don’t have to social distance or self-quarantine. It’s not going to happen. But again, the other thing that people are missing when they say that this wound is self-inflicted — who cares? It doesn’t matter that the wound is self-inflicted. What matters is that we got a wound. Look, if I grab a knife and I stab myself in the chest, I’m not OK because the wound is self-inflicted… It doesn’t matter how I got stabbed. What matters is I have a knife in my chest and I’m bleeding. So, I can’t just ignore the wound because I was dumb enough to stab myself.”
Peter went on to highlight all of the dismal economic data that came out. It shows just how serious that wound is.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--This Time Might Be Different

This Time Might Be Different

Over the last decade , investors have been trained to “ buy ” the markets every time the Federal Reserve was engaging in providing liquidity to the financial markets .
As I noted in “ Pavlov ’ s Dogs : ” For investors , as each round of “ Quantitative Easing ” was the “ neutral stimulus , ” which was followed by the “ potent stimulus ” of higher stock prices , Not surprisingly , after a decade of “ ringing the bell , ” investors have been conditioned to respond accordingly .
It is worth a trip back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed ’ s monetary interventions , and the impact on asset prices .
2002-2007 : Credit spreads and financial conditions had normalized following the “ Dot.com ” crash .
The Fed ’ s balance sheet was growing in line with the rate of GDP growth , ensuring banks had adequate liquidity to operate ( This is the baseline of “ normalcy.
” ) 2008 : March – Bear Stearns fails , mortgage defaults start to rise , credit conditions worsen , and yield spreads rise .
September – Lehman fails and freezes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , triggering margin calls , and the Fed floods the system with liquidity .
As discussed last week : 2010 : QE1 ends , credit conditions tighten slightly as the new economy recovery showed strains .
The Fed quickly acts to inject more liquidity with QE2 .
Given credit spreads and conditions were close to normal levels , the excess liquidity only had one place to go – the stock market .
2011 : QE2 ends as the world is hit with a double-threat .
Japan is impacted by a massive tsunami and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of a “ debt-ceiling debate.
” Again , despite credit spreads and conditions being near normal levels , the Fed jumps in with “ Operation Twist.
” The economy quickly found its footing in Q3 of 2010 , and with no crisis to absorb the liquidity , it flowed into the stock market .
2012 : One of the byproducts of the “ debt ceiling debate ” was a bipartisan commission tasked with finding $ 1 trillion in spending cuts to reduce the deficit .
This was known as the “ fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bernanke panicked and launched QE3 to preempt a “ fiscal cliff ” crisis .
However , no crisis occurred , leaving the trillion-plus in liquidity with nowhere to go but the stock market .
2016 : With the market down 20 % from the peak over fears of a disorderly “ Brexit , ” Janet Yellen calls on the BOE and ECB to launch a Euro-QE program .
Once again , the “ Brexit ” crisis never happened , and the only place for all of the excess liquidity to go was into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mid-summer , the Fed is faced with an “ overnight liquidity shortage ” for hedge funds .
This was the first sign of trouble , but credit markets were not showing any real signs of strain .
With credit markets operating normally , the liquidity flowed into asset prices , pushing markets to all-time highs .
2020 : COVID-19 Strikes : The shutdown of the economy was unprecedented .
Importantly , for the first time in a decade , credit conditions tightened , and yield spreads blew out .
Bank ’ s loan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic data is worse than at any other point in history outside of the “ Great Depression.
” While the Federal Reserve is busy providing liquidity to keep the credit markets functioning , investors who have forgotten to study 2008 still assume stocks can only rise .
However , this time , for the first time since the “ Financial Crisis , ” there is “ credit event ” absorbing the Fed ’ s liquidity .
Importantly , like 2008 , the “ economic disruption ” is likely to be far worse and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currently estimated as these “ bailouts ” fail to increase economic prosperity , wages , or savings .
How do we know that ?
The chart below is our economic composite indicator .
Given the primary indicators of economic strength are wage growth , inflation , the dollar , and interest rates , it is no surprise the indicator has a close correlation to GDP .
Since the financial crisis , there has been very little organic economic growth .
Importantly , the rate of growth remained below pre-recessionary highs .
The Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the balance sheet , did little to improve that weakness .
In fact , we argue that their incredibly loose monetary policy which fed speculative investments , deterred from economic growth .
In other words , while the Federal Reserve ’ s policies have been shown to absolutely boost asset prices , and inflate debt levels , they are responsible for detracting from economic growth , and widening the “ wealth gap ” between economic participants , Consumption , what you and I spend supporting our families , working , and playing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth .
Of that 70 % , retail sales make up about 40 % .
This past week , the first “ retail sales ” report was released showing the impact of the “ economic shutdown ” on domestic consumption .
This decline in retail is not the end , but the beginning , as job losses mount .
Retail demand is going to continue to suffer long after the “ economy ” is re-opened .
From this analysis , we can extrapolate the decline in retail sales into expectations for PCE growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70 % of the economy , this is why expectations are for a drop of 10 % , or more , in GDP in the second quarter .
Unfortunately , despite many hopes to the contrary , this is unlikely to be a “ V-shaped ” recovery for several reasons .
While the Government is talking about re-opening the economy , they are discussing doing so in phases over several months .
Essential workers like plumbers , electricians , and other providers will reopen first , and only in areas with low infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the economy will be opened as the “ risk of spread ” diminishes .
The problem is that during that time , the majority of small business owners , which as stated previously , comprise about 70 % of employment , and roughly 45 % of GDP , will run out of money .
To wit : However , the bigger problem was noted on Wednesday by UBS : Even if these companies get loans and assistance , they require “ revenue ” to stay in business .
However , the nasty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reducing employment , consumption is also curtailed .
As revenue falls at the top line , the propensity to make capital investments into the economy plummets .
Of course , that demand drop also reduces the biggest support for asset prices over the past decade – share buybacks .
The problem with surging unemployment is what happens to confidence .
Without a job , or even the threat of losing one ’ s job or a pay cut , “ confidence ” is falling quickly which curtails consumption .
( The chart below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ combines both the University of Michigan and Conference Board measures . )
If we overlay that confidence composite with personal consumption expenditures , it is not surprising there is a reasonably high correlation .
Not surprisingly , since retail sales make up 40 % of personal consumption expenditures , it also has a high correlation with consumer confidence .
Do you know what else has a high correlation with consumer confidence ?
This should be a relatively obvious connection .
No job = No paycheck = No spending .
Of course , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question : As I concluded in that note last year : While the markets have indeed managed a strong “ bear market rally ” following the fastest decline in the entirety of financial history , there are reasons to be cautious .
We are just entering into what will likely be a longer , deeper , and more damaging recession than what we saw in 2008. Credit conditions and yields spreads are still a long-way from normalized , and defaults and bankruptcies are likely only in the very early stages .
Liquidity from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time being , but the longer this recession/depression drags on , the greater the risk is the Fed only delayed the inevitable .
While the Federal Reserve has certainly moved quickly to assist the credit markets in remaining operational , as discussed here , those “ emergency measures ” don ’ t translate into stronger economic prosperity , revenues , or corporate profits .
What this all means is there will be no “ V-shaped ” recovery .
It also suggests there is a possibility that “ buying the dip , ” doesn @ @ @ @ @ @

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
“Don’t fight the Fed.” – Every amateur investor who has never seen a bear market.
Over the last decade, investors have been trained to “buy” the markets every time the Federal Reserve was engaging in providing liquidity to the financial markets. As I noted in “Pavlov’s Dogs:”
“Classical conditioning (also known as Pavlovian or respondent conditioning) refers to a learning procedure in which a potent stimulus (e.g. food) is paired with a previously neutral stimulus (e.g. a bell). What Pavlov discovered is that when the neutral stimulus was introduced, the dogs would begin to salivate in anticipation of the potent stimulus, even though it was not currently present. This learning process results from the psychological ‘pairing’ of the stimuli. Importantly, for conditioning to work, the ‘neutral stimulus,’ when introduced, must be followed by the ‘potent stimulus,’ for the ‘pairing’ to be completed.”
For investors, as each round of “Quantitative Easing” was the “neutral stimulus,” which was followed by the “potent stimulus” of higher stock prices, Not surprisingly, after a decade of “ringing the bell,” investors have been conditioned to respond accordingly.
It is worth a trip back through history to evaluate the relationship between the Fed’s monetary interventions, and the impact on asset prices.
2002-2007: Credit spreads and financial conditions had normalized following the “Dot.com” crash. The Fed’s balance sheet was growing in line with the rate of GDP growth, ensuring banks had adequate liquidity to operate (This is the baseline of “normalcy.”)
2008: March – Bear Stearns fails, mortgage defaults start to rise, credit conditions worsen, and yield spreads rise. September – Lehman fails and freezes credit markets. Asset prices decline sharply, triggering margin calls, and the Fed floods the system with liquidity. As discussed last week:
The reality of the economic devastation begins to set in as unemployment skyrockets, consumption and investment contract, and earnings fall nearly 100% from their previous peak, as the market declines 26% into late November. It was then the Federal Reserve launched the first round of Quantitative Easing. Stocks staged an impressive rally of almost 25% from the lows. Yes, the bull market was back! Except that it wasn’t. Over the next few months, the Fed’s liquidity was absorbed by the “gaping economic wound,” and the market fell another 28.5% to its ultimate low.” Note: At this juncture, credit conditions were improving, spreads were normalizing, and the bulk of the economic devastation had been seen.
2010: QE1 ends, credit conditions tighten slightly as the new economy recovery showed strains. The Fed quickly acts to inject more liquidity with QE2. Given credit spreads and conditions were close to normal levels, the excess liquidity only had one place to go – the stock market.
2011: QE2 ends as the world is hit with a double-threat. Japan is impacted by a massive tsunami and the U.S. Government is enthralled in the midst of a “debt-ceiling debate.” Again, despite credit spreads and conditions being near normal levels, the Fed jumps in with “Operation Twist.” The economy quickly found its footing in Q3 of 2010, and with no crisis to absorb the liquidity, it flowed into the stock market.
2012: One of the byproducts of the “debt ceiling debate” was a bipartisan commission tasked with finding $1 trillion in spending cuts to reduce the deficit. This was known as the “fiscal cliff.” In late 2012, Ben Bernanke panicked and launched QE3 to preempt a “fiscal cliff” crisis. However, no crisis occurred, leaving the trillion-plus in liquidity with nowhere to go but the stock market.
2016: With the market down 20% from the peak over fears of a disorderly “Brexit,” Janet Yellen calls on the BOE and ECB to launch a Euro-QE program. Once again, the “Brexit” crisis never happened, and the only place for all of the excess liquidity to go was into the equity markets.
2019: In mid-summer, the Fed is faced with an “overnight liquidity shortage” for hedge funds. This was the first sign of trouble, but credit markets were not showing any real signs of strain. With credit markets operating normally, the liquidity flowed into asset prices, pushing markets to all-time highs.
NOTE; With 2008 a distant memory, and a decade of “emergency measures” providing “excess liquidity” to financial institutions for “emergencies” that never occurred, investors were fully trained to “buy the dip.”
2020: COVID-19 Strikes: The shutdown of the economy was unprecedented. Importantly, for the first time in a decade, credit conditions tightened, and yield spreads blew out. Bank’s loan loss reserves are exploding, and the economic data is worse than at any other point in history outside of the “Great Depression.”
While the Federal Reserve is busy providing liquidity to keep the credit markets functioning, investors who have forgotten to study 2008 still assume stocks can only rise. However, this time, for the first time since the “Financial Crisis,” there is “credit event” absorbing the Fed’s liquidity.
Importantly, like 2008, the “economic disruption” is likely to be far worse and more damaging to corporate earnings, than currently estimated as these “bailouts” fail to increase economic prosperity, wages, or savings.
How do we know that?
The chart below is our economic composite indicator. Given the primary indicators of economic strength are wage growth, inflation, the dollar, and interest rates, it is no surprise the indicator has a close correlation to GDP.
Since the financial crisis, there has been very little organic economic growth. Importantly, the rate of growth remained below pre-recessionary highs. The Fed’s zero-interest-rate policies, and expansion of the balance sheet, did little to improve that weakness. In fact, we argue that their incredibly loose monetary policy which fed speculative investments, deterred from economic growth.
In other words, while the Federal Reserve’s policies have been shown to absolutely boost asset prices, and inflate debt levels, they are responsible for detracting from economic growth, and widening the “wealth gap” between economic participants,
No “V-Shaped” Recovery
Consumption, what you and I spend supporting our families, working, and playing, comprises roughly 70% of economic growth. Of that 70%, retail sales make up about 40%. This past week, the first “retail sales” report was released showing the impact of the “economic shutdown” on domestic consumption.
“Pretty Catastrophic’ Month for Retailers, and Now a Race to Survive. March brought a record sales plunge as the coronavirus outbreak closed stores. A long shutdown could leave lasting changes in the shopping landscape.” – NYT
This decline in retail is not the end, but the beginning, as job losses mount. Retail demand is going to continue to suffer long after the “economy” is re-opened.
From this analysis, we can extrapolate the decline in retail sales into expectations for PCE growth. Again, since PCE comprises almost 70% of the economy, this is why expectations are for a drop of 10%, or more, in GDP in the second quarter.
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Unfortunately, despite many hopes to the contrary, this is unlikely to be a “V-shaped” recovery for several reasons.
While the Government is talking about re-opening the economy, they are discussing doing so in phases over several months. Essential workers like plumbers, electricians, and other providers will reopen first, and only in areas with low infection rates. Then over time the rest of the economy will be opened as the “risk of spread” diminishes.
The problem is that during that time, the majority of small business owners, which as stated previously, comprise about 70% of employment, and roughly 45% of GDP, will run out of money. To wit:
“Most importantly, as shown below, the majority of businesses will run out of money long before SBA loans, or financial assistance, can be provided. This will lead to higher, and a longer-duration of, unemployment.”
However, the bigger problem was noted on Wednesday by UBS:
“Not every company that qualifies for the Federal Reserve’s loan support will survive the coronavirus-led downturn. Despite the Fed’s rescue efforts, these companies may struggle to remain in business and could be downgraded deeper into junk territory by the raters. ‘For now, we assume direct Fed loan support helps 50% of those eligible; i.e., distressed firms become non-distressed. However, without specific single name analysis, this estimate is effectively the coin toss because the actual figure is below 100% and above 0%. That implies half of eligible issuers avoid distress with Fed loans (9% leveraged loans, 10% middle-market, 19% high-yield).’ In reality, not every company that qualifies on paper will be able to pull this off. Some may suffer from long-term effects of the pandemic such as reduced travel and office-space rentals. Others may require assistance beyond September 30, which is the current termination date of the Fed’s facilities.”
Even if these companies get loans and assistance, they require “revenue” to stay in business. However, the nasty “feedback loop” is that by reducing employment, consumption is also curtailed. As revenue falls at the top line, the propensity to make capital investments into the economy plummets.
Of course, that demand drop also reduces the biggest support for asset prices over the past decade – share buybacks.
“Between the Federal Reserve injecting a massive amount of liquidity into the financial markets, and corporations buying back their own shares, there have been effectively no other real buyers in the market.”
The problem with surging unemployment is what happens to confidence.
Consumption Is Function Of A Paycheck
Without a job, or even the threat of losing one’s job or a pay cut, “confidence” is falling quickly which curtails consumption.
(The chart below shows our composite confidence index, which combines both the University of Michigan and Conference Board measures.) If we overlay that confidence composite with personal consumption expenditures, it is not surprising there is a reasonably high correlation.
Not surprisingly, since retail sales make up 40% of personal consumption expenditures, it also has a high correlation with consumer confidence.
Do you know what else has a high correlation with consumer confidence?
Employment.
This should be a relatively obvious connection.
No job = No paycheck = No spending.
Of course, in October 2019, we asked a simple question:
“[Who is a better measure of economic strength?] Is it the consumer cranking out work hours, raising a family, and trying to make ends meet? Or the CEO of a company who is watching sales, prices, managing inventory, dealing with collections, paying bills, and managing changes to the economic landscape on a daily basis? A quick look at history shows this level of disparity (between consumer and CEO confidence) is not unusual. It happens every time prior to the onset of a recession.
“Notice that CEO confidence leads consumer confidence by a wide margin. This lures bullish investors, and the media, into believing that CEO’s really don’t know what they are doing. Unfortunately, consumer confidence tends to crash as it catches up with what CEO’s were already telling them. What were CEO’s telling consumers that crushed their confidence? ‘I’m sorry, we think you are really great, but I have to let you go.’”
As I concluded in that note last year:
“It is hard for consumers to remain ‘confident,’ and continue spending, when they have lost their source of income. This is why consumer confidence doesn’t ‘go gently into the night,’ but rather ‘screaming into the abyss.’”
While the markets have indeed managed a strong “bear market rally” following the fastest decline in the entirety of financial history, there are reasons to be cautious.
We are just entering into what will likely be a longer, deeper, and more damaging recession than what we saw in 2008. Credit conditions and yields spreads are still a long-way from normalized, and defaults and bankruptcies are likely only in the very early stages. Liquidity from the Fed has suspended bankruptcies for the time being, but the longer this recession/depression drags on, the greater the risk is the Fed only delayed the inevitable.
While the Federal Reserve has certainly moved quickly to assist the credit markets in remaining operational, as discussed here, those “emergency measures” don’t translate into stronger economic prosperity, revenues, or corporate profits.
What this all means is there will be no “V-shaped” recovery.
It also suggests there is a possibility that “buying the dip,” doesn’t work this time.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--President Trump’s Very Serious Tweets A Call to Rise up?

Donald J. Trump @ realDonaldTrump · 5m LIBERATE VIRGINIA , and save your great 2nd Amendment .
It is under @ @ @ @ @ @ realDonaldTrump · 8m LIBERATE MICHIGAN !
Donald J. Trump @ realDonaldTrump · 9m LIBERATE @ @

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
5m
LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment. It is under siege!
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
8m
LIBERATE MICHIGAN!
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
9m
LIBERATE MINNESOTA!
LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment. It is under siege! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 17, 2020
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
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SS


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--S&P Repeating 2000 & 2007 Top In Time and Price?

Over the past two weeks , the stock market has rallied sharply , seeing the S & P 500 retraced 50 percent of the 2020 market crash .
The quick burst higher has many feeling a sense of relief… but could this be an ominous sign ?
In today ’ s chart , we look at the S & P 500 Index over the past 20 years and the prospective of repeating bearish patterns in both time and price .
Note that I pointed out this possibility in my April 6 article .
The past two market crashes in 2000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ index put in a March low at each ( 1 ) before rallying and peaking at its 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at each ( 2 ) .
This then lead to an acceleration of selling and new bear market lows .
Could this be happening again this year ?
The S & P 500 put in a crash low in March before rallying back to its 50 percent Fib retracement level at ( 3 ) .
Is history repeating right on time ?
Is the bear market rally setting up a giant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Stay tuned !

by Kimble Charting
S&P 500 Index Chart Long-Term Chart
Over the past two weeks, the stock market has rallied sharply, seeing the S&P 500 retraced 50 percent of the 2020 market crash.
The quick burst higher has many feeling a sense of relief… but could this be an ominous sign?
In today’s chart, we look at the S&P 500 Index over the past 20 years and the prospective of repeating bearish patterns in both time and price. Note that I pointed out this possibility in my April 6 article.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The past two market crashes in 2000 & 2007 saw the broad stock market index put in a March low at each (1) before rallying and peaking at its 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at each (2). This then lead to an acceleration of selling and new bear market lows.
Stock Market Crash Deja Vu?
Could this be happening again this year? The S&P 500 put in a crash low in March before rallying back to its 50 percent Fib retracement level at (3).
Is history repeating right on time? Is the bear market rally setting up a giant bull trap? Bulls sure hope not. Stay tuned!


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Authoritarian Nightmare Reopen Plan Leaked! Welcome To Hell 2.0 – Goodbye Free America!

For More Information See : www.washingtonpost.com/contex…

For More Information See:
www.washingtonpost.com/contex…
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--JP Morgan On Verge Of COLLAPSE! – Shares PLUNGE As They Warn Of MASSIVE RECESSION

Josh Sigurdson reports on the clear and present dangers at JP Morgan as the bank sees earnings dive 69 % @ @ @ @ @ a massive recession .
While they see a mortgage crisis at the same time as @ @ @ @ @ s important to point out we ’ ve been in a recession since 2008 .
@ @ @ @ @ was simply papered over .
What we are seeing today is a global depression , @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve never seen in history and it will be historic .
One can take @ @ @ @ @ Jamie Dimon recently recovered from surgery as JP Morgan watched shares dive fast .
Their @ @ @ @ @ never good but surely they will have some problems if people do what they should @ @ @ @ @ Done a run on the bank .
We cover this and the comments by BlackRock @ @ @ @ @ running the stock market today as we enter the era of complete central planning .

Josh Sigurdson reports on the clear and present dangers at JP Morgan as the bank sees earnings dive 69% while the bank warns of a massive recession. While they see a mortgage crisis at the same time as a global recession it’s important to point out we’ve been in a recession since 2008. It never ended. It was simply papered over.
What we are seeing today is a global depression, the likes of which we’ve never seen in history and it will be historic. One can take that to the bank.
Jamie Dimon recently recovered from surgery as JP Morgan watched shares dive fast. Their cash to deposit ratio was never good but surely they will have some problems if people do what they should have done long ago. Done a run on the bank.
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We cover this and the comments by BlackRock on the Federal Reserve basically running the stock market today as we enter the era of complete central planning.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--What NO ONE is Saying About The Corona Crisis – James Corbett

There are a thousand hacking at the branches of this pandemic panic to one striking at the root .
Join @ @ @ @ @ of Japan as he strikes at the root of the pandemic problem that we are @ @ @ @ @ you accept or reject the new governing principle of society ?

SHOW NOTES: www.corbettreport.com/?p=35855
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There are a thousand hacking at the branches of this pandemic panic to one striking at the root. Join James Corbett on the streets of Japan as he strikes at the root of the pandemic problem that we are being presented with. Will you accept or reject the new governing principle of society?


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Toilet paper hoarder’s request for a refund spurned by supermarket

Sky News host Paul Murray says there has been “ tremendous ” news from South Australia concerning a man who @ @ @ @ @ of rolls of toilet paper in exchange for a refund .
At this particular supermarket @ @ @ @ @ were sold within four weeks , causing many to go without .
The manager of @ @ @ @ @ the man a refund and said , “ if everyone had bought the things they @ @ @ @ @ term then we would be fine , but the reality is we have had so @ @ @ @ @ .

Sky News host Paul Murray says there has been “tremendous” news from South Australia concerning a man who is attempting to return thousands of rolls of toilet paper in exchange for a refund.
At this particular supermarket eight months of toilet paper were sold within four weeks, causing many to go without.
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The manager of the supermarket refused to give the man a refund and said, “if everyone had bought the things they needed for their immediate short term then we would be fine, but the reality is we have had so many people hoarding products”.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--A list of everything trump did to fight covid 19

More sauce for this gravy boat :

More sauce for this gravy boat:
www.donaldjtrump.com/media/timeline-the-trump-administrations-decisive-actions-to-combat-the-coronavirus/
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AC