investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--10 Signs Of Housing Market Crash 2020 The Worst Real Estate Crash Since The Great Depression

Will the housing market crash happen in 2020 ?
While some people believe the health crisis will soon disappear , others can be overly anxious about how long it ’ s still going to last and how deep the consequences of this outburst could hit them .
A number of Americans are already feeling a hint of the weight of this economic collapse on their backs .
And in this video , we ’ re going to asset the imminent real estate crash that is concerning many of them .
The stock market crash has made investors and home buyers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t the next piece in this domino-effect-fall .
As stated by a survey done in April by the National Association of Realtors , 90 % of their members affirmed the current outbreak has considerably decreased home buyer interest .
More than half of the clients decided to postpone their purchase until the situation calms down a bit more and two-thirds of them are expecting lower prices .
In this video we will show you 10 warning signs that can help you predict an incoming housing crash .
Using this list as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data we collected from renowned web portals such as Investopedia , Ratehub and PR Newswire , we are going to explain how every one of these aspects can contribute to a collapse in this market on a greater to a lower extent .
With this list we can see from many different angles the possibility of a housing market crash sometime soon .
All the conditions seem to be adding up to an eruption on many fronts .
There is another outburst about to form .

Will the housing market crash happen in 2020?
While some people believe the health crisis will soon disappear, others can be overly anxious about how long it’s still going to last and how deep the consequences of this outburst could hit them.
A number of Americans are already feeling a hint of the weight of this economic collapse on their backs. And in this video, we’re going to asset the imminent real estate crash that is concerning many of them. The stock market crash has made investors and home buyers discouraged and wondering if the housing market isn’t the next piece in this domino-effect-fall.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As stated by a survey done in April by the National Association of Realtors, 90% of their members affirmed the current outbreak has considerably decreased home buyer interest. More than half of the clients decided to postpone their purchase until the situation calms down a bit more and two-thirds of them are expecting lower prices.
In this video we will show you 10 warning signs that can help you predict an incoming housing crash. Using this list as a base and adding guidance from the data we collected from renowned web portals such as Investopedia, Ratehub and PR Newswire, we are going to explain how every one of these aspects can contribute to a collapse in this market on a greater to a lower extent.
With this list we can see from many different angles the possibility of a housing market crash sometime soon. All the conditions seem to be adding up to an eruption on many fronts. There is another outburst about to form.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Democrats Descend Into CHAOS As Bernie Supporters REVOLT, Leftists Outraged Over Bernie’s Betrayal

Democrats Descend Into CHAOS As Bernie Supporters REVOLT , Leftists Outraged Over Bernie ’ s Betrayal .
Bernie Sanders has @ @ @ @ @ now former supporters due to his endorsement of Democratic front runner Joe Biden .
Following @ @ @ @ @ rejection by Democratic socialists , progressives , and the far left Bernie Sanders said it @ @ @ @ @ far left to “ sit on their hands ” and allow Donald Trump to win @ @ @ @ @ progressives aren ’ t having it and have rejected Bernie ’ s statements and even @ @ @ @ @ The democrats courted this movement and asked for this .
it was obvious to so @ @ @ @ @ never support someone like Joe Biden but instead of fighting for the middle ground the @ @ @ @ @ left and now they will reap what they have sown

Democrats Descend Into CHAOS As Bernie Supporters REVOLT, Leftists Outraged Over Bernie’s Betrayal. Bernie Sanders has been under fire by his now former supporters due to his endorsement of Democratic front runner Joe Biden.
Following a wave of criticism and rejection by Democratic socialists, progressives, and the far left Bernie Sanders said it would be irresponsible for the far left to “sit on their hands” and allow Donald Trump to win a second term.
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But progressives aren’t having it and have rejected Bernie’s statements and even slammed him over it.
The democrats courted this movement and asked for this. it was obvious to so many that progressive activists would never support someone like Joe Biden but instead of fighting for the middle ground the Democrats chased after the far left and now they will reap what they have sown


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Sen. Hobbs to oversee National Guard support of food banks

Will we see this in supermarkets , soon ?
Sen. Hobbs to oversee National Guard support of food banks OLYMPIA @ @ @ @ @ , D-Lake Stevens , has been tapped to oversee the Washington National Guard ’ s @ @ @ @ @ other tasks in the western portion of the state in response to the COVID-19 outbreak @ @ @ @ @ colonel in the National Guard , will command Task Force Olympic , comprised of 150 @ @ @ @ @ of the Army and Air National Guard , according to a news release .
There @ @ @ @ @ Columbia for eastern Washington .
Gov .
Jay Inslee authorized use of National Guard members @ @ @ @ @ earlier this month .
Last week , the Guard reported soldiers and airmen were involved @ @ @ @ @ , with plans to increase the total to 35 .
Other tasks , such as @ @ @ @ @ ventilators and beds reach their destinations , also will be assigned to the task force @

Guarding the food? Controlling the food?
Or just plain ole giving a helping hand?
Will we see this in supermarkets, soon?
Sen. Hobbs to oversee National Guard support of food banks
OLYMPIA — State Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, has been tapped to oversee the Washington National Guard’s support of food banks and other tasks in the western portion of the state in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Hobbs, a lieutenant colonel in the National Guard, will command Task Force Olympic, comprised of 150 to 200 men and women of the Army and Air National Guard, according to a news release. There is a separate Task Force Columbia for eastern Washington.
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Gov. Jay Inslee authorized use of National Guard members to assist community food banks earlier this month. Last week, the Guard reported soldiers and airmen were involved in supporting 17 food banks, with plans to increase the total to 35.
Other tasks, such as ensuring critical supplies such as ventilators and beds reach their destinations, also will be assigned to the task force.
www.heraldnet.com/news/sen-hobbs…-228635337
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--The sudden declines in production illustrates the fatal flaw in the shale business model.

Oil and gas production in the United States has peaked and is already in decline .
The latest data from the EIA ’ s Drilling Productivity Report sees widespread production declines across all major shale basins in the country .
The Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd between April and May , with declines also evident in the Eagle Ford ( -35,000 bpd ) , the Bakken ( -28,000 bpd ) , the Anadarko ( -21,000 bpd ) and the Niobrara ( -20,000 bpd ) .
Natural gas production is also in decline , a reality that occurred prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to accelerate .
The Appalachian basin ( Marcellus and Utica shales ) are expected to lose 326 million cubic feet per day ( mcf/d ) in May , a loss of 1 percent of supply .
In percentage terms , the Anadarko basin in Oklahoma is expected to see an even larger drop off – 216 mcf/d in May , or a 3 percent decline in production .
The sudden declines in production illustrates the fatal flaw in the shale business model .
Once drilling slows down , production can immediately go negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ E & Ps have to keep running fast on the drilling treadmill in order to keep production aloft .
But the meltdown in prices has forced the industry to idle 179 rigs since mid-March .
With drilling grinding to a halt , output has slumped as “ legacy ” production declines take hold .
That is , without new wells coming online to offset the declines from existing wells , overall production falls .
In specific terms , the Permian , for example , will lose 356,000 bpd from “ legacy ” wells @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 280,000 bpd in new output from new wells .
On a net basis , the Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd in May .
That legacy decline rate has deepened with each passing year , requiring more aggressive drilling each month to keep production on an upward trend .
But the treadmill has finally caught up to the industry .
The OPEC+ deal won ’ t rescue a lot of shale companies .
The demand destruction is simply too large for the OPEC+ cuts .
With WTI at $ 20 per barrel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receiving quite a bit less than that .
“ Since humans started using oil , we have never seen anything like this , ” Saad Rahim , chief economist at Trafigura Group Pte .
Ltd. , told the Wall Street Journal .
“ There is no guide we are following .
This is uncharted.
” He estimates demand has plunged from 100 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) to just 65-70 mb/d currently .
The WSJ says that oil storage in Cushing , OK could be full by the end of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shut ins in Oklahoma and Texas .
That suggests the EIA estimate for a decline in U.S. shale production of 183,000 bpd in May could be optimistic .
Meanwhile , analysts are eyeing a rebound for gas because of the supply curtailments already underway .
The shut-ins in the Permian also help balance gas markets because associated gas will decline along with oil .
“ We believe the prospects of crude oil shut-ins and lower oil drilling activity are likely to shift the natural gas supply-demand picture from bearish to bullish over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Goldman Sachs wrote in a note .
“ We assume 2021 Henry Hub natural gas price of $ 3.25/MMBtu on average , above our $ 2.75/MMBtu mid-cycle estimate.
” Henry Hub is currently trading at around $ 1.70/MMBtu .
The crisis for oil drillers has some of them clamoring for regulation from the Texas Railroad Commission .
But no matter which way the RRC decides , cuts are in the offing .
A more worrying prospect for U.S. shale is that the OPEC+ deal , as ineffectual as it was at boosting prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The current deal has been forged under duress and is much more likely to fall apart over time , ” Bjarne Schieldrop , chief commodities analyst at SEB , said in a statement .
“ Saudi Arabia ’ s economic need for a production volume of 12-13m bl/day in a $ 50/bl world , and Russia ’ s strong distaste for production cuts as a means for achieving higher prices , are fundamentals which the current deal can not circumvent.
” Saudi Arabia hiked prices for shipments heading to the U.S. , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreement .
But it cut prices to shipments to Europe and Asia , evidence that Riyadh is not done with its market share strategy .
“ The official selling prices for its May oil shipments , which have been announced after a one-week delay , should be interpreted as a warning to other oil exporters if they do not toe the line , ” Commerzbank wrote on Tuesday .
“ [ T ] he price war is continuing to simmer on a low level.
” By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com:
Oil and gas production in the United States has peaked and is already in decline. The latest data from the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report sees widespread production declines across all major shale basins in the country. The Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd between April and May, with declines also evident in the Eagle Ford (-35,000 bpd), the Bakken (-28,000 bpd), the Anadarko (-21,000 bpd) and the Niobrara (-20,000 bpd).
Natural gas production is also in decline, a reality that occurred prior to the global pandemic but is set to accelerate. The Appalachian basin (Marcellus and Utica shales) are expected to lose 326 million cubic feet per day (mcf/d) in May, a loss of 1 percent of supply. In percentage terms, the Anadarko basin in Oklahoma is expected to see an even larger drop off – 216 mcf/d in May, or a 3 percent decline in production.
The sudden declines in production illustrates the fatal flaw in the shale business model. Once drilling slows down, production can immediately go negative due to steep decline rates. Shale E&Ps have to keep running fast on the drilling treadmill in order to keep production aloft. But the meltdown in prices has forced the industry to idle 179 rigs since mid-March.
With drilling grinding to a halt, output has slumped as “legacy” production declines take hold. That is, without new wells coming online to offset the declines from existing wells, overall production falls.
In specific terms, the Permian, for example, will lose 356,000 bpd from “legacy” wells in May, more than overwhelming the 280,000 bpd in new output from new wells. On a net basis, the Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd in May.
That legacy decline rate has deepened with each passing year, requiring more aggressive drilling each month to keep production on an upward trend. But the treadmill has finally caught up to the industry.
The OPEC+ deal won’t rescue a lot of shale companies. The demand destruction is simply too large for the OPEC+ cuts. With WTI at $20 per barrel on Tuesday, Permian drillers are actually receiving quite a bit less than that.
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“Since humans started using oil, we have never seen anything like this,” Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd., told the Wall Street Journal. “There is no guide we are following. This is uncharted.” He estimates demand has plunged from 100 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just 65-70 mb/d currently.
The WSJ says that oil storage in Cushing, OK could be full by the end of the month, which could abruptly force production shut ins in Oklahoma and Texas. That suggests the EIA estimate for a decline in U.S. shale production of 183,000 bpd in May could be optimistic.
Meanwhile, analysts are eyeing a rebound for gas because of the supply curtailments already underway. The shut-ins in the Permian also help balance gas markets because associated gas will decline along with oil.
“We believe the prospects of crude oil shut-ins and lower oil drilling activity are likely to shift the natural gas supply-demand picture from bearish to bullish over the next 9months assuming normal weather,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. “We assume 2021 Henry Hub natural gas price of$3.25/MMBtu on average, above our $2.75/MMBtu mid-cycle estimate.” Henry Hub is currently trading at around $1.70/MMBtu.
The crisis for oil drillers has some of them clamoring for regulation from the Texas Railroad Commission. But no matter which way the RRC decides, cuts are in the offing.
A more worrying prospect for U.S. shale is that the OPEC+ deal, as ineffectual as it was at boosting prices, may not prove sustainable. “The current deal has been forged under duress and is much more likely to fall apart over time,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “Saudi Arabia’s economic need for a production volume of 12-13m bl/day in a $50/bl world, and Russia’s strong distaste for production cuts as a means for achieving higher prices, are fundamentals which the current deal cannot circumvent.”
Saudi Arabia hiked prices for shipments heading to the U.S., a nod to President Trump and the OPEC+ agreement. But it cut prices to shipments to Europe and Asia, evidence that Riyadh is not done with its market share strategy.
“The official selling prices for its May oil shipments, which have been announced after a one-week delay, should be interpreted as a warning to other oil exporters if they do not toe the line,” Commerzbank wrote on Tuesday. “[T]he price war is continuing to simmer on a low level.” By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Facts Will Be Presented, We Are Ready, Think Barr, Durham FISA

The clock is now ticking down for the [ DS ] /D ’ s and the MSM , The invisible @ @ @ @ @ Trump is going to bring the country out of the GP and will introduce HQ @ @ @ @ @ is the beginning to show that there are other cures out there that were hidden @ @ @ @ @ the start , and every time Trump removes the [ DS ] funding they feel @ @ @ @ @ ready , facts will be presented .

The clock is now ticking down for the [DS]/D’s and the MSM, The invisible enemy has now lost. Trump is going to bring the country out of the GP and will introduce HQ as the cure. This is the beginning to show that there are other cures out there that were hidden from us. FISA is the start, and every time Trump removes the [DS] funding they feel pain, we are now ready, facts will be presented.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--We Will Solve the Virus, but What Comes Next?

It is very , very hard to be short human ingenuity .
For example—when you buy commodities , you are betting , partially , that people will be incompetent at producing or obtaining them .
Occasionally this happens , but not for very long .
Commodity prices rose in the mid-2000s because of other factors , such as a sharp rise in inflation expectations , resulting in large institutional allocations to commodities via commodity index swaps .
But it wasn ’ t because we screwed things up .
Commodity prices generally go down over time .
The long-term returns on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yields keep going up , and fracking has substantially reduced the price of oil and natural gas .
The world is having some trouble getting its hands on more gold , but those of you with gold in your portfolios aren ’ t sad about that .
To be clear : a bet on rising commodity prices is either a bet on macro factors , like inflation , or on profound political shifts .
It is hard work betting against human ingenuity .
When you short the stock market , you are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a handful of times in history when this has worked .
The financial crisis was one of them .
But even the financial crisis , peak to trough , was over in 21 months .
The European debt crisis was equally devastating , but only resulted in a decline of about 20 % in US stocks .
The LTCM/Russian debt default in 1998 also only resulted in a decline of about 20 % .
The 1991 recession , as severe as it was , was just a blip in historical terms .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sellers became very famous by shorting the US housing market .
Investors have spent the last 10 years trying to replicate that feat , unsuccessfully .
Human beings do occasionally screw up—there are financial accidents from time to time .
But the imbalances and excessive leverage that were present just a month ago started building long before that .
You could have been short in 2015 , 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , and 2019—and people were .
If you get one of these bear markets right , the timing will be mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of carry in the process .
The Rate of Change Is Slowing There is a lot of pessimism around COVID-19 .
The pessimism mostly comes from New York , where the number of infections is greatest , and from people working in healthcare , who are witnessing truly awful things every day .
Many people seem to believe that : • We will not figure this out • We will be under quarantine for months Humanity has had a pretty good track record of solving problems , whether it was terrorism , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scares .
Nobody is really paying attention to the good news .
The good news is that we were technologically more prepared to deal with a pandemic in 2020 than at any point in history .
Zoom , and other platforms , are connecting us all—but all the media is focusing on is the security risks .
Technology is helping us deal with the crisis and allocate resources .
The news is about the ways resources are misallocated .
The vast majority of people are practicing social distancing .
The news is about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breakers in Miami Beach .
Every step of the way in this crisis , we have consistently underestimated government , underestimated the private sector , and underestimated healthcare workers .
And yet—the rate of change of COVID-19 cases is actually slowing .
Of course , the actual number of COVID-19 cases is not slowing , but the rate of change is .
Typically when people run into trouble with bonds or options , it ’ s because they don ’ t understand the second derivative .
The market discounts , and by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of infections will flatten , the market will have already rallied .
It will be too late to buy in at the lows… or maybe it already is .
The virus doesn ’ t scare me ; our financial response to the virus scares me .
We have flipped the switch on unlimited deficit spending , unlimited quantitative easing ( QE ) , and what is basically modern monetary theory ( MMT ) .
We are not going to put that toothpaste back in the tube .
That is the part I am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rubicon .
If commodity prices rise significantly , it will probably happen because of macro factors—mistakes at the policymaker level .
If equity prices decline significantly , it will probably happen because of macro factors—mistakes at the policymaker level .
Stocks won ’ t go down because of the virus .
We will solve the virus in the short term .
Stocks may go down because of what comes after the virus , which is too terrible to contemplate .
I believe in human ingenuity .
I believe in our ability to solve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capacity to make problems worse .
I believe in the human tendency to question the reality of economic tradeoffs—as some think you can have your cake and eat it , too .

by Jared Dillian
It is very, very hard to be short human ingenuity.
For example—when you buy commodities, you are betting, partially, that people will be incompetent at producing or obtaining them. Occasionally this happens, but not for very long.
Commodity prices rose in the mid-2000s because of other factors, such as a sharp rise in inflation expectations, resulting in large institutional allocations to commodities via commodity index swaps. But it wasn’t because we screwed things up.
Commodity prices generally go down over time. The long-term returns on commodity indices have been bad. Crop yields keep going up, and fracking has substantially reduced the price of oil and natural gas. The world is having some trouble getting its hands on more gold, but those of you with gold in your portfolios aren’t sad about that.
To be clear: a bet on rising commodity prices is either a bet on macro factors, like inflation, or on profound political shifts. It is hard work betting against human ingenuity.
When you short the stock market, you are also betting against human ingenuity. There have been a handful of times in history when this has worked. The financial crisis was one of them. But even the financial crisis, peak to trough, was over in 21 months.
The European debt crisis was equally devastating, but only resulted in a decline of about 20% in US stocks. The LTCM/Russian debt default in 1998 also only resulted in a decline of about 20%. The 1991 recession, as severe as it was, was just a blip in historical terms.
In 2008, a group of short sellers became very famous by shorting the US housing market. Investors have spent the last 10 years trying to replicate that feat, unsuccessfully.
Human beings do occasionally screw up—there are financial accidents from time to time. But the imbalances and excessive leverage that were present just a month ago started building long before that.
You could have been short in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019—and people were. If you get one of these bear markets right, the timing will be mostly luck, and you will pay a lot of carry in the process.
The Rate of Change Is Slowing
There is a lot of pessimism around COVID-19. The pessimism mostly comes from New York, where the number of infections is greatest, and from people working in healthcare, who are witnessing truly awful things every day.
Many people seem to believe that:
We will not figure this out
We will be under quarantine for months
Social distancing will not work
Hospitals will be overwhelmed
Life will be altered forever
Humanity has had a pretty good track record of solving problems, whether it was terrorism, the cold war, or other health scares. Nobody is really paying attention to the good news.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The good news is that we were technologically more prepared to deal with a pandemic in 2020 than at any point in history. Zoom, and other platforms, are connecting us all—but all the media is focusing on is the security risks.
Technology is helping us deal with the crisis and allocate resources. The news is about the ways resources are misallocated.
The vast majority of people are practicing social distancing. The news is about the people who aren’t—the spring breakers in Miami Beach.
Every step of the way in this crisis, we have consistently underestimated government, underestimated the private sector, and underestimated healthcare workers. And yet—the rate of change of COVID-19 cases is actually slowing.
Of course, the actual number of COVID-19 cases is not slowing, but the rate of change is.
Typically when people run into trouble with bonds or options, it’s because they don’t understand the second derivative. The market discounts, and by the time it becomes apparent that the number of infections will flatten, the market will have already rallied. It will be too late to buy in at the lows… or maybe it already is.
We’ve Flipped the Switch
The virus doesn’t scare me; our financial response to the virus scares me.
We have flipped the switch on unlimited deficit spending, unlimited quantitative easing (QE), and what is basically modern monetary theory (MMT). We are not going to put that toothpaste back in the tube.
That is the part I am worried about. We have crossed the Rubicon.
If commodity prices rise significantly, it will probably happen because of macro factors—mistakes at the policymaker level.
If equity prices decline significantly, it will probably happen because of macro factors—mistakes at the policymaker level.
Stocks won’t go down because of the virus. We will solve the virus in the short term. Stocks may go down because of what comes after the virus, which is too terrible to contemplate.
I believe in human ingenuity. I believe in our ability to solve problems.
I also believe in our capacity to make problems worse. I believe in the human tendency to question the reality of economic tradeoffs—as some think you can have your cake and eat it, too.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-16--Boris Johnson Released from Hospital But The Media Won’t Report What Healed Him!

Jim Hoft from The Gateway Pundit reports , Great news !
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson , 55 , was @ @ @ @ @ unit on Thursday and moved to a regular ward to recover from COVID-19 .
On @ @ @ @ @ released from the hospital and returned home to continue his recovery .

Jim Hoft from The Gateway Pundit reports, Great news! British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, 55, was released from the intensive care unit on Thursday and moved to a regular ward to recover from COVID-19. On Easter Sunday Boris Johnson was released from the hospital and returned home to continue his recovery.
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Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Another 5.25 Million Unemployment Claims Last Week – Suggests unemployment rate of at least 17%

4th Week of massive claims numbers but this week it did ease a bit .
For more charts see these @ @

by SpontaneousDisorder
4th Week of massive claims numbers but this week it did ease a bit. For more charts see these links.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/22-million-last-4-weeks-has-erased-all-jobs-created-great-recession
Bloomberg archive.vn/exDnS


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Anyone else feeling abandoned?

Anyone else feeling abandoned?

I applied for the SBA EIDL and requested the advance .
I applied for PPP .
I applied ( twice now ) for my own states business loan assistance .
I was quick to get everything done and in .
I received the infamous email from the SBA last week .
Credit pull on Sunday .
Nothing else .
No sudden cash influx .
No further word from anyone .
I have called my credit union every other day and am told , “ you ’ re in the que.
” Nothing happens .
I applied for paypal three days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
.I ’ m told- “ Your application is in review.
” Nothing else .
No offer hours later like some .
I feel like every supposed support has overlooked us and I ’ m not sure how to make myself and my 8 employees be SEEN and MATTER .
I watch our bank account dwindle away and as we drown in to the abyss , we can ’ t understand what it is that makes others deserve assistance when we do not .
Even $ 10,000 would be enough to keep us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough… One little life preserver .
Why have we been abandoned ?
I know many are in similar boats and we are all deserving .
We ’ ve put everything in to our businesses and to lose them would cause significant grief .
I feel for all of us being passed by .
I also wish everyone the best and am happy for all that are getting assistance .
Afterall , I personally benefit from many small business in my community and beyond and would love to see them survive and thrive .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the CARES ACT for SBA Loans went to less than 5 % of the companies .
It is undeniable the big guys got it first .
Now they are out of money .

by 4helenmar
I applied for the SBA EIDL and requested the advance. I applied for PPP. I applied (twice now) for my own states business loan assistance. I was quick to get everything done and in. I received the infamous email from the SBA last week. Credit pull on Sunday. Nothing else. No sudden cash influx. No further word from anyone. I have called my credit union every other day and am told, “you’re in the que.” Nothing happens. I applied for paypal three days ago after seeing everyone rave about it. .I’m told- “Your application is in review.” Nothing else. No offer hours later like some. I feel like every supposed support has overlooked us and I’m not sure how to make myself and my 8 employees be SEEN and MATTER. I watch our bank account dwindle away and as we drown in to the abyss, we can’t understand what it is that makes others deserve assistance when we do not. Even $10,000 would be enough to keep us afloat for longer. Maybe even long enough… One little life preserver. Why have we been abandoned?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I know many are in similar boats and we are all deserving. We’ve put everything in to our businesses and to lose them would cause significant grief. I feel for all of us being passed by. I also wish everyone the best and am happy for all that are getting assistance. Afterall, I personally benefit from many small business in my community and beyond and would love to see them survive and thrive.
Almost half of the money set aside in the CARES ACT for SBA Loans went to less than 5% of the companies. It is undeniable the big guys got it first. Now they are out of money.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--What’s the data that lies behind the decision to extend the UK lockdown? Has the disease now peaked

What’s the data that lies behind the decision to extend the UK lockdown? Has the disease now peaked in Britain?

What 's the data that lies behind the decision to extend the UK lockdown ?
Has the disease now peaked @ @ @ @ @ is the economic fallout ?
My latest explainer , including some scary charts but also @ @ @ @ @ of hope t.co/gQHfFAsiFg

What's the data that lies behind the decision to extend the UK lockdown? Has the disease now peaked in Britain? And what is the economic fallout? My latest explainer, including some scary charts but also some that offer a glimmer of hope t.co/gQHfFAsiFg
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Why are equities booming? Maybe due to a shortage of unsafe assets?

And right now # moneyprintergoesbrrr !
pic.twitter.com/4OwXOeIMVG Buybacks and M & A activity have massively outpaced gross equity issuance since @ @ @ @ @ due to scarcity , esp .
with ongoing money creation Maybe due to a shortage @ @ @ @ @ is very good information design + use of space @ nytimes Also this is widely @ @ @ @ @ is far more a ‘ voting machine ’ today ( voting for what it WANTS @ @ @ @ @ a weighing machine ( factoring in extent of economic destruction ) pic.twitter.com/XolH8ZIxoZ

And right now #moneyprintergoesbrrr ! pic.twitter.com/4OwXOeIMVG
Buybacks and M&A activity have massively outpaced gross equity issuance since 2010 – underpinning equity valuations due to scarcity, esp. with ongoing money creation
Maybe due to a shortage of unsafe assets?
This is very good information design + use of space @nytimes
Also this is widely known…BUT the market—a discounting machine––
is far more a ‘voting machine’ today (voting for what it WANTS and HOPES)
far less a weighing machine (factoring in extent of economic destruction) pic.twitter.com/XolH8ZIxoZ
— Josh Wolfe (@wolfejosh) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--The truth behind the “magical” drug Remdesivir

This drug is not what it seems Today after their stock went up Gilead announced the following : This is Gilead telling us not to be optimistic yet .
This drug has serious side effects according to the study that I linked above : Today GILD releaseed a statement on remdesivir , saying data is INCONCLUSIVE , no statistical power to determine efficacy , and reports are anecdotal – after its stocks surged after hours .
Gilead issued a statement which suggested that STAT was pumping the stock based on nothing more than “ anecdotal reports ” to wit : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Covid-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug remdesivir .
The totality of the data need to be analysed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial.
” “ Anecdotal reports , while encouraging , do not provide the statistical power necessary to determine the safety and efficacy profile of remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19 .
We expect the data from our Phase 3 study in patients with severe Covid-19 infection to be available at the end of this month , and additional data from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
”

by ZamanMahmoudi
This drug is not what it seems
Today after their stock went up Gilead announced the following:
Gilead: Anecdotal Reports Do Not Provide Statistical Power Necessary To Determine Safety, Efficacy Profile Of Remdesivir As Treatment For COVID-19 -Expect Data From Phase 3 Study In Patients With Severe Covid-19 Infection To Be Available At End Of April
This is Gilead telling us not to be optimistic yet. This drug has serious side effects according to the study that I linked above:
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1 in 4 patients experienced severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. 23% showed signs of liver damage on lab tests. 4 patients had to stop receiving infusions of the drug entirely.
Today GILD releaseed a statement on remdesivir, saying data is INCONCLUSIVE, no statistical power to determine efficacy, and reports are anecdotal – after its stocks surged after hours.
Gilead issued a statement which suggested that STAT was pumping the stock based on nothing more than “anecdotal reports” to wit:
“We understand the urgent need for a Covid-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug remdesivir. The totality of the data need to be analysed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial.”
“Anecdotal reports, while encouraging, do not provide the statistical power necessary to determine the safety and efficacy profile of remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19. We expect the data from our Phase 3 study in patients with severe Covid-19 infection to be available at the end of this month, and additional data from other studies to become available in May.”
www.barrons.com/articles/stock-futures-soar-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-report-51587079853
Is the new Remdesivir data a game changer? no production capacity, IV infusion capacity in hospitals, and many other issues. We need rapid turn-around time for PCR testing first: 6hrs for an average patient please? — Barton (@Barton_options) April 17, 2020
[RTRS] – GILEAD – ANECDOTAL REPORTS DO NOT PROVIDE STATISTICAL POWER NECESSARY TO DETERMINE SAFETY, EFFICACY PROFILE OF REMDESIVIR AS TREATMENT FOR COVID-19 — FxMacro (@fxmacro) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--US companies in #China “haven’t been able to get [their] money out for 4 yrs. And now we’re being to

US companies in #China “haven’t been able to get [their] money out for 4 yrs. And now we’re being told that maybe you can’t get your supply chains out.”

.
@ Jkylebass : For all joint ventures of US financial firms in # China , the chief Asian economist @ @ @ @ @ the Communist Party .
`` Everything that gets written about the Chinese financial system is…through @ @ @ @ @ .
”

.@Jkylebass: For all joint ventures of US financial firms in #China, the chief Asian economist must be a member of the Communist Party.
"Everything that gets written about the Chinese financial system is…through the lenses of the propagandists.”
Watch: t.co/EMaBaQPsLs pic.twitter.com/1S4hf5WG5F
— Jan Jekielek 😷 (@JanJekielek) April 17, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Yesterday’s debt levels will look like a joke in comparison to what is coming…

As long as you keep liking , sharing , commenting , clicking on our articles , subscribing to our newsletter @ @ @ @ @ IWB , we ’ ll keep standing up , speaking out and fighting back !

Yesterday’s debt levels will look like a joke in comparison to what is coming… @tom_hoenig @pdacosta t.co/bigNYBdFNO pic.twitter.com/i60YwMpokz
At the peak of Bernanke-era QE, the Fed was buying $120bn per month. In 2020 purchases are running at $70bn+ per day! @DeutscheBank via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/wl6Xl35AiR
— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Banks give 20 millions out of maximum 10, to a company that has 4500 employees over 500 employee lim

Banks give 20 millions out of maximum 10, to a company that has 4500 employees over 500 employee limit. Big get bigger. Small gets shafted

Restaurant chain is among first to disclose SBA funds received under federal rescue package The owner of the high-end Ruth @ @ @ @ @ chain is among the first public companies to disclose it has received a government-backed loan @ @ @ @ @ payroll .
Ruth ’ s Hospitality Group Inc. , a company with more than 5,000 @ @ @ @ @ million in forgivable loans on April 7 , according to a securities filing .
That @ @ @ @ @ Small Business Administration opened the application window on its $ 350 billion Payroll Protection Program @

via WSJ
Restaurant chain is among first to disclose SBA funds received under federal rescue package
The owner of the high-end Ruth’s Chris Steak House chain is among the first public companies to disclose it has received a government-backed loan to keep people on its payroll.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Ruth’s Hospitality Group Inc., a company with more than 5,000 workers, received $20 million in forgivable loans on April 7, according to a securities filing. That is four days after the Small Business Administration opened the application window on its $350 billion Payroll Protection Program.
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Worst Retail Sales Since At Least 1992

Worst Retail Sales Since At Least 1992

Retail sales were down huge in March .
They will fall even more in April .
We know based on private data that there was excessive hoarding in mid-March ; grocery store sales growth fell in the following weeks ( into April ) .
That could help drive retail sales growth lower since food and beverage stores were the biggest winners in March .
As you can see from the table below , monthly food and beverage store sales growth was 25.58 % in March .
The hoarding took place in the middle of March when the shutdowns where starting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as people realize how much they actually consume and utilize the hoard they purchased .
This category ’ s sales explosion gave it the highest weighting in the report at 17 % .
That ’ s usually motor vehicles and parts .
Headline monthly retail sales growth was -8.73 % which missed the consensus of -7.3 % .
This is the worst monthly sales growth since at least 1992 .
Because of this easy comp , April growth might not be bad on a monthly basis , but it will be even weaker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beverages has a tough monthly comp is as we mentioned .
Retail sales excluding autos weren ’ t nearly as bad , implying autos were weak .
Sales growth was -4.5 % which was slightly worse than estimates for a 4.2 % decline .
Autos and parts sales were down 25.59 % which was also the worst since at least 1992 .
Excluding autos and gas sales , monthly growth was -3.1 % which beat estimates for -4.5 % .
Gas prices have crashed and few people are driving .
WTI oil recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2002 .
Monthly sales growth at gas stations was -17.15 % which was the 2nd worst growth on record .
Surprisingly , the control group had positive growth .
Growth was 1.9 % which destroyed estimates for -1.8 % .
It was way above the highest estimate which called for a 0.4 % decline .
This spells good news for GDP growth as it goes directly into that calculation .
Clothing sales fell 50.48 % monthly .
That ’ s no surprise because the stores are shut down .
There is no need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social gatherings .
The 26.81 % decline in furniture sales is slightly surprising because there was a boost in work from home related furniture demand such as desks .
On the positive side , online sales growth was 3.11 % .
This segment has a 14.24 % weighting .
It ’ s usually the 2nd biggest category , but it was the 3rd biggest in March because food and beverage sales spiked .
March was the rare situation where general merchandise outperformed online sales as it had 6.4 % growth which was over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stores benefited from the trend of buying non-discretionary items like toiletries .
On a yearly basis , retail sales excluding food services growth was -3.8 % which was better than the last recession ’ s bottom of -12.8 % growth in March 2009 .
April will have worse yearly growth than that as we mentioned earlier .
Since restaurants and bars were closed , yearly growth including food services was -6.2 % .
That ’ s much closer to the March 2009 trough of -11.5 % .
That trough will easily be surpassed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , OpenTable shows bookings have been down 100 % since March 21st .
Real yearly retail sales growth was -7.6 % which was near the November 2008 trough of -11.4 % .
Yearly non-store retail sales growth actually increased from 7.7 % to 9.7 % .
That explains all the hiring Amazon is doing to keep up with demand .
The housing market was doing really well headed into this recession because rates were low and we had a warm winter .
Now , it ’ s basically non-existent since people aren ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t allow for open houses .
People can ’ t afford to pay their mortgage let alone buy a house .
That ’ s why the April housing market index fell from 72 to 30 which missed estimates for 60 and the lowest estimate which was 53 .
Builder confidence fell below 50 for the first time since June 2014 .
Anything below 50 is a decline .
Somehow every economist believed housing would grow .
They clearly aren ’ t bearish enough on housing .
When they get too bearish , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The present sales index fell from 79 to 36 and the future sales index fell from 75 to 36 .
The prospective buyers index fell from 56 to 13 .
The table above shows that reading is in the 5.2nd percentile .
What an amazing fall from grace as it was previously in the 95.9th percentile .
It ’ s no surprise the Northeast was the worst hit as New York City and New Jersey are the worst hit areas by COVID-19 .
The region ’ s index fell from 64 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the chart below , the March purchase applications index was down 24 % yearly in the New York City metro area .
With this huge decline in the housing market index in April , purchase applications will be virtually non-existent in the area .
There are more people who are deferring mortgage payments than looking to buy a new house .
The current unemployment rate is about 15 % if you look at jobless claims and extrapolate that out .
According to Black Knight that will cause 5.5 million mortgages to go past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales growth was the worst in the Philadelphia area as it fell over 30 % .
In the Midwest , the housing market index fell from 67 to 25 .
The indexes in the South and the West , which are the first and second biggest regions , fell from 76 and 79 to just 34 and 32 .
The South is an area to look out for because Florida and Louisiana are emerging hotspots for coronavirus .
The retail sales report was terrible in March .
Imagine how bad it was in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ somehow the control group did fine which means consumer spending shouldn ’ t crater Q1 GDP growth .
As we showed in a previous article , the Redbook same store sales reading implies sales fell off a cliff at department stores and growth slowed at discount stores ( both in the week of April 11th ) .
That ’ s bad for Q2 GDP growth obviously .
The housing market also fell off a cliff in April .
The decline in traffic has been startling as you ’ d expect in an economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percentile to the 5.2nd percentile .
There is no way this sharp fall can be repeated without such a shutdown .

by UPFINA
Retail sales were down huge in March. They will fall even more in April. We know based on private data that there was excessive hoarding in mid-March; grocery store sales growth fell in the following weeks (into April). That could help drive retail sales growth lower since food and beverage stores were the biggest winners in March. As you can see from the table below, monthly food and beverage store sales growth was 25.58% in March. The hoarding took place in the middle of March when the shutdowns where starting. Grocery store sales growth is dwindling as people realize how much they actually consume and utilize the hoard they purchased. This category’s sales explosion gave it the highest weighting in the report at 17%. That’s usually motor vehicles and parts.
A remarkable @bespokeinvest picture of winners & losers within retail sales’ categories (even with 3 categories at/near top of all-time best months); overall decline was largest on record for single month thanks to 9 categories at/near top of all-time worst months) pic.twitter.com/Z6z1MEvN93 — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 15, 2020
Headline monthly retail sales growth was -8.73% which missed the consensus of -7.3%. This is the worst monthly sales growth since at least 1992. Because of this easy comp, April growth might not be bad on a monthly basis, but it will be even weaker on a yearly basis. Food and beverages has a tough monthly comp is as we mentioned. Retail sales excluding autos weren’t nearly as bad, implying autos were weak. Sales growth was -4.5% which was slightly worse than estimates for a 4.2% decline. Autos and parts sales were down 25.59% which was also the worst since at least 1992.
Excluding autos and gas sales, monthly growth was -3.1% which beat estimates for -4.5%. Gas prices have crashed and few people are driving. WTI oil recently fell to the lowest price since February 2002. Monthly sales growth at gas stations was -17.15% which was the 2nd worst growth on record. Surprisingly, the control group had positive growth. Growth was 1.9% which destroyed estimates for -1.8%. It was way above the highest estimate which called for a 0.4% decline. This spells good news for GDP growth as it goes directly into that calculation.
Clothing sales fell 50.48% monthly. That’s no surprise because the stores are shut down. There is no need for new clothes when there are no social gatherings. The 26.81% decline in furniture sales is slightly surprising because there was a boost in work from home related furniture demand such as desks. On the positive side, online sales growth was 3.11%. This segment has a 14.24% weighting. It’s usually the 2nd biggest category, but it was the 3rd biggest in March because food and beverage sales spiked. March was the rare situation where general merchandise outperformed online sales as it had 6.4% growth which was over double online sales growth. General merchandise stores benefited from the trend of buying non-discretionary items like toiletries.
On a yearly basis, retail sales excluding food services growth was -3.8% which was better than the last recession’s bottom of -12.8% growth in March 2009. April will have worse yearly growth than that as we mentioned earlier. Since restaurants and bars were closed, yearly growth including food services was -6.2%. That’s much closer to the March 2009 trough of -11.5%. That trough will easily be surpassed by April’s report. Remember, OpenTable shows bookings have been down 100% since March 21st. Real yearly retail sales growth was -7.6% which was near the November 2008 trough of -11.4%. Yearly non-store retail sales growth actually increased from 7.7% to 9.7%. That explains all the hiring Amazon is doing to keep up with demand.
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Housing Market Turns South
The housing market was doing really well headed into this recession because rates were low and we had a warm winter. Now, it’s basically non-existent since people aren’t going out. Social distancing doesn’t allow for open houses. People can’t afford to pay their mortgage let alone buy a house. That’s why the April housing market index fell from 72 to 30 which missed estimates for 60 and the lowest estimate which was 53. Builder confidence fell below 50 for the first time since June 2014. Anything below 50 is a decline. Somehow every economist believed housing would grow. They clearly aren’t bearish enough on housing. When they get too bearish, it’s usually a bullish sign.
The headline index as well as each of the sub-indices for the NAHB's monthly reading on homebuilder sentiment all experienced their largest monthly declines on record: t.co/WqXQkraaRZ pic.twitter.com/A3mUrFqmVR — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) April 15, 2020
The present sales index fell from 79 to 36 and the future sales index fell from 75 to 36. The prospective buyers index fell from 56 to 13. The table above shows that reading is in the 5.2nd percentile. What an amazing fall from grace as it was previously in the 95.9th percentile. It’s no surprise the Northeast was the worst hit as New York City and New Jersey are the worst hit areas by COVID-19. The region’s index fell from 64 to 19.
As you can see from the chart below, the March purchase applications index was down 24% yearly in the New York City metro area.
The latest CoreLogic Housing Analysis update surrounding COVID-19 shows that home purchase applications took a tumble in some of the nation's hottest #housing markets in March, including Philadelphia, LA and New York: t.co/SXRTLIWIxp pic.twitter.com/uraUqX9NMT — CoreLogic (@CoreLogicInc) April 15, 2020
With this huge decline in the housing market index in April, purchase applications will be virtually non-existent in the area. There are more people who are deferring mortgage payments than looking to buy a new house. The current unemployment rate is about 15% if you look at jobless claims and extrapolate that out. According to Black Knight that will cause 5.5 million mortgages to go past due (10.3%).
Yearly sales growth was the worst in the Philadelphia area as it fell over 30%. In the Midwest, the housing market index fell from 67 to 25. The indexes in the South and the West, which are the first and second biggest regions, fell from 76 and 79 to just 34 and 32. The South is an area to look out for because Florida and Louisiana are emerging hotspots for coronavirus.
Conclusion
The retail sales report was terrible in March. Imagine how bad it was in April. On the other hand, somehow the control group did fine which means consumer spending shouldn’t crater Q1 GDP growth. As we showed in a previous article, the Redbook same store sales reading implies sales fell off a cliff at department stores and growth slowed at discount stores (both in the week of April 11th). That’s bad for Q2 GDP growth obviously. The housing market also fell off a cliff in April. The decline in traffic has been startling as you’d expect in an economic shutdown. It went from the 95.9th percentile to the 5.2nd percentile. There is no way this sharp fall can be repeated without such a shutdown.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Welcome to the LIQUIDITY TRAP BUBBLE!

Welcome to the LIQUIDITY TRAP BUBBLE!

Banks are being conservative which might suggest that all of this is “ priced in ” .
They ’ re borrowing like crazy with the Fed rate at 0.25 % and they ’ re using that capital to pay down old , higher interest liabilities i.e .
collectively , they ’ re handing it back to the Fed .
None of that looks good or sounds good from a short-term perspective ; and little of that QE will actually hit mainstreet — at least in the period when it matters .
But paying off debt is the only way out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are scared ( saving vs spending mentality ) , credit risk is poor , and economic growth is stifled .
This is a deflationary spiral that could last 3-5 years ; and QE can only mask the bleeding so much before it becomes detrimental to our future .
Just look at Japan in the 90 ’ s .
You can ’ t fight lack of demand without meaningful control of the price lever .
Point being , the following realities are inevitable : • Economic growth will be stifled as demand/investing remain low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be spent on commodities and debt obligations • New bubble will form when the real value of certain assets ( housing etc . )
gets distorted .
This will also form the basis for our breakout This is a liquidity trap .
There will be a run on the market — JPow has been printing to “ price ” all that in .
For the past three weeks , the Fed has been acting as ballast to buy time for monetary policy to pivot .
Now banks are in a strong cash position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So we should expect the floodgates to open and the carpet to finally get pulled .
Stocks will crash again ( hoarding cash ) , and harder ; followed by a multi-year theta market marked by incremental inflation until we transition to a much needed growth period .
Welcome to the debt bubble !
FYI , whatever medicine we use to resolve this will ultimately form the cause of our next bubble .
So on and so forth… • Wage imbalance resulted in risky/unregulated/low interest lending which was a boon for big banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This bubble created debt • Debt caused the mortgage crisis of 2008 which resulted in a massive recession second only to the Great Depression .
This bubble created QE • QE caused the liquidity trap of 2020 which resulted in a massive deflationary spiral akin to the recession .
This bubble was created by excess and unnecessary money supply in a period of low demand • Wage increase will get us out of recession .
But again , it will also form the cause of our next bubble Cash out and pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceptionally bearish for months and years to come .
Everyone is scared to say liquidity trap because that will cause a cash run on banks .
Hear me and prove them right .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

Banks are being conservative which might suggest that all of this is “priced in”.
They’re borrowing like crazy with the Fed rate at 0.25% and they’re using that capital to pay down old, higher interest liabilities i.e. collectively, they’re handing it back to the Fed. None of that looks good or sounds good from a short-term perspective; and little of that QE will actually hit mainstreet — at least in the period when it matters. But paying off debt is the only way out of this spiral — especially when investors are scared (saving vs spending mentality), credit risk is poor, and economic growth is stifled. This is a deflationary spiral that could last 3-5 years; and QE can only mask the bleeding so much before it becomes detrimental to our future. Just look at Japan in the 90’s. You can’t fight lack of demand without meaningful control of the price lever.
Point being, the following realities are inevitable:
People will hoard the money supply
Lending will freeze despite a near-zero interest rate
Economic growth will be stifled as demand/investing remain low
Most of the money supply will be spent on commodities and debt obligations
New bubble will form when the real value of certain assets (housing etc.) gets distorted. This will also form the basis for our breakout
This is a liquidity trap. There will be a run on the market — JPow has been printing to “price” all that in. For the past three weeks, the Fed has been acting as ballast to buy time for monetary policy to pivot. Now banks are in a strong cash position with foreknowledge of what to expect. So we should expect the floodgates to open and the carpet to finally get pulled. Stocks will crash again (hoarding cash), and harder; followed by a multi-year theta market marked by incremental inflation until we transition to a much needed growth period.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Welcome to the debt bubble! FYI, whatever medicine we use to resolve this will ultimately form the cause of our next bubble. So on and so forth…
Globalization created cheap external labor which spurred economic investment/growth. This bubble created wage imbalance
Wage imbalance resulted in risky/unregulated/low interest lending which was a boon for big banks and consumer spending for nearly two decades. This bubble created debt
Debt caused the mortgage crisis of 2008 which resulted in a massive recession second only to the Great Depression. This bubble created QE
QE caused the liquidity trap of 2020 which resulted in a massive deflationary spiral akin to the recession. This bubble was created by excess and unnecessary money supply in a period of low demand
Wage increase will get us out of recession. But again, it will also form the cause of our next bubble
Cash out and pay down your debt. The environment looks exceptionally bearish for months and years to come. Everyone is scared to say liquidity trap because that will cause a cash run on banks. Hear me and prove them right.
h/t trump_sucks_we_know
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Banks just continue to get crushed

Banks just continue to get crushed

Wall Street banks are lending billions of dollars to desperate companies these days , like hotelier Marriott International and concert @ @ @ @ @ '' A CEO who stands by their short-term targets that were set right before this @ @ @ @ @ ’ t know what planet they ’ re on .
You can ’ t predict @ @ @

Wall Street banks are lending billions of dollars to desperate companies these days, like hotelier Marriott International and concert producer Live Nation Entertainment t.co/NB1hgPgQK6
"A CEO who stands by their short-term targets that were set right before this virus hit, I don’t know what planet they’re on. You can’t predict that.” t.co/rb1BnbXLf2
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 16, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Who‘s big / well connected enough to be bailed out should be the starting point of every equity valu

Who ‘ s big / well connected enough to be bailed out should be the starting point of every equity @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/nwO6UNlxer

Who‘s big / well connected enough to be bailed out should be the starting point of every equity valuation in the forseeable future… pic.twitter.com/nwO6UNlxer
JOEL KOTKIN: Who Will Prosper After the Plague? The tech sector and the managerial class will get richer, while the rest of us become their serfs.
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to widen even further the growing class divides now found in virtually every major country. By disrupting smaller grassroots businesses while expanding the power of technologies used in the enforcement of government edicts, the virus could further empower both the tech oligarchs and the “expert” class leading the national response to the crisis.
In our increasingly feudal society, the small property owning yeomanry who operate the local businesses essential to Los Angeles shopping streets, and New York neighborhoods are already under threat and will be squeezed further by both the pandemic and its aftermath. But even more hard-pressed will be the growing, propertyless serf class that includes laid-off workers and the roughly 50 to 60 million workers in essential jobs, notes a new report from Richard Florida, and of those, 35 to 40 million require close physical proximity as opposed to those who can retreat to safety behind their computers. Roughly 70% of these workers are in low-wage professions, such as food preparation, and often, despite their increased risk, often lack health insurance from their employers.
Plagues, such as in the 14th century, may have wiped out as much as one third of Europe’s population, and devastated great Renaissance trading cities. In the Middle Ages, the wealthy sought safety in their country estates, much like the affluent now fleeing major European and American cities. Diets and survival rates varied enormously between the upper and lower classes. As one 14th-century observer noted, the plague “attacked especially the meaner sort and common people—seldom the magnates.”
But the wreckage also created new opportunities for those left standing. Abandoned tracts of land could be consolidated by rich nobles, or, in some cases, enterprising peasants, who took advantage of sudden opportunities to buy property or use chronic labor shortages to demand higher wages. “In an age where social conditions were considered fixed,” historian Barbara Tuchman has suggested, the new adjustments seemed “revolutionary.”
What might such “revolutionary” changes look like in our post-plague society? In the immediate future the monied classes in America will take a big hit, as their stock portfolios shrink, both acquisitions and new IPOs get sidetracked and the value of their properties drop. But vast opportunities for tremendous profit available to those with the financial wherewithal to absorb the initial shocks and capitalize on the disruption they cause. As in 2016, politicians in both parties have worked hard in the new stimulus to get breaks for their wealthy constituents, whether they are big retail chains, rich California taxpayers, or, in some cases, themselves.
Over time, the crisis is likely to further bolster the global oligarchal class.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--This Is The Worst Employment Collapse In U.S. History By A Very Wide Margin

We have never seen an “ employment apocalypse ” in the United States like we are witnessing right now , and it is not going to end any time soon .
Over the past several days , “ coronavirus shutdowns ” have officially been extended all over the nation , and the longer these shutdowns last the more jobs our economy is going to lose .
And because most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before this pandemic hit us , many unemployed workers are already unable to pay their bills .
Yes , our authorities may be slowing down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the process they have absolutely killed the economy .
On Thursday , I was stunned to learn that another 5.2 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week .
That brings the grand total for the last four weekly reports “ to a staggering 22 million ” … About 5.2 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week , the Labor Department said Thursday .
Jobless claims provide the best measure of layoffs across the country .
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 5.5 million Americans would file initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That brings the total claims over the past four weeks to a staggering 22 million .
By comparison , the labor market added 21.5 million jobs since the Great Recession .
Just think about that .
22 million jobs wiped out in one month .
And the true number of jobs lost is actually even higher , because not everyone that loses a job files for unemployment benefits .
Prior to this year , the highest number of initial claims for unemployment benefits during any four week period that we had ever witnessed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1982 .
So 22 million in four weeks truly puts us in uncharted territory .
Just look at this chart .
We aren ’ t just beating the old records , we are absolutely obliterating them .
You know that things are really , really bad when even NBC News sounds just like The Economic Collapse Blog… In other words , the chief economist at Wells Fargo is saying that the U.S. economy is completely and utterly collapsing .
According to Zero Hedge , “ we have lost 710 jobs for every confirmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
” Our politicians have prioritized saving lives over saving the economy , and many people out there seem convinced that was the right choice , but the economic devastation has been immense .
The socialist “ stimulus payments ” and unemployment benefits will help all of these unemployed workers temporarily , but the payments from the federal government are supposedly just a one time deal , and it won ’ t be too long before many states start running out of unemployment money… So what will the federal government do once we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Congress will eventually want to borrow and spend trillions more dollars that we don ’ t have , and it is likely that “ conservatives ” and “ liberals ” will both be quite eager to vote for another pork-filled bill .
But it is probably going to take some time for Congress to get through the process of passing another crazy spending package , and meanwhile deep economic suffering is erupting all over the nation .
On Thursday , vehicles were lined up for two miles in Miramar , Florida as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handouts from a local food bank .
We are starting to see food lines like this all over the country , and if things are this bad already , what will things look like a few months from now ?
The chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago is calling this “ the deepest , fastest , most broad-based recession we ’ ve ever seen ” , and I can ’ t argue with that assessment one bit .
For a moment , I would like for you to consider just a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have seen over the past few days… -United Airlines has reduced its schedule of flights for May and June “ by about 90 % ” as demand for air travel has absolutely plummeted .
-U.S. retail sales were down 8.7 percent in March .
-Housing starts just collapsed by the most that we have seen in 36 years .
-The mayor of Los Angeles says that large gatherings in his city will likely be banned until 2021 .
-Facebook has canceled all large events until June 2021 .
-Chinese GDP just experienced the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly every nation will soon report absolutely staggering declines in GDP .
The shutdowns have brought economic activity to a standstill all over the globe , and no region is immune .
The following is how the Daily Mail is describing the current state of global trade… Does that sound like a “ perfect storm ” to you ?
Well , the truth is that it is just getting started .
Eventually this pandemic will subside , but now that all of the economic dominoes are starting to tumble it will be exceedingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as I pointed out the other day , most Americans are not likely to resume all of their normal daily activities once the restrictions are finally lifted , and fear of this virus is going to be a dominant economic force for the foreseeable future .
What all of this means is that we are facing incredible economic pain for the short-term , the mid-term and for a long time to come .
At this point , we should no longer speak of “ economic collapse ” as something that will happen in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is now .
And it is going to get a lot worse .

by Michael Snyder
We have never seen an “employment apocalypse” in the United States like we are witnessing right now, and it is not going to end any time soon. Over the past several days, “coronavirus shutdowns” have officially been extended all over the nation, and the longer these shutdowns last the more jobs our economy is going to lose. And because most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before this pandemic hit us, many unemployed workers are already unable to pay their bills. Yes, our authorities may be slowing down the spread of the virus, but in the process they have absolutely killed the economy. On Thursday, I was stunned to learn that another 5.2 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That brings the grand total for the last four weekly reports “to a staggering 22 million”…
About 5.2 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Jobless claims provide the best measure of layoffs across the country. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 5.5 million Americans would file initial applications for unemployment insurance last week. That brings the total claims over the past four weeks to a staggering 22 million. By comparison, the labor market added 21.5 million jobs since the Great Recession.
Just think about that.
22 million jobs wiped out in one month.
And the true number of jobs lost is actually even higher, because not everyone that loses a job files for unemployment benefits.
Prior to this year, the highest number of initial claims for unemployment benefits during any four week period that we had ever witnessed was 2.7 million during the fall of 1982.
So 22 million in four weeks truly puts us in uncharted territory. Just look at this chart.
We aren’t just beating the old records, we are absolutely obliterating them.
You know that things are really, really bad when even NBC News sounds just like The Economic Collapse Blog…
“The labor market is obviously very, very important, and has a high correlation with what is going on in the economy,” Jay Bryson, the acting chief economist at Wells Fargo, told NBC News. “It is showing us what I think we all know, that the economy is falling off a cliff at an unprecedented rate.”
In other words, the chief economist at Wells Fargo is saying that the U.S. economy is completely and utterly collapsing.
According to Zero Hedge, “we have lost 710 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (30,985).” Our politicians have prioritized saving lives over saving the economy, and many people out there seem convinced that was the right choice, but the economic devastation has been immense.
The socialist “stimulus payments” and unemployment benefits will help all of these unemployed workers temporarily, but the payments from the federal government are supposedly just a one time deal, and it won’t be too long before many states start running out of unemployment money…
Six states — including New York, which has the highest number of cases in the US — can only fund up to 10 weeks of unemployment benefits from their state coffers before money runs out and they have to turn to the federal government for additional funding, according to a recent estimate from the Tax Foundation. Another 15 state trust funds don’t meet the federal Department of Labor’s recommended minimum solvency standard, which requires being able to pay benefits for a year in an economic downturn similar to the Great Recession.
So what will the federal government do once we get to that point?
I imagine that Congress will eventually want to borrow and spend trillions more dollars that we don’t have, and it is likely that “conservatives” and “liberals” will both be quite eager to vote for another pork-filled bill.
But it is probably going to take some time for Congress to get through the process of passing another crazy spending package, and meanwhile deep economic suffering is erupting all over the nation.
On Thursday, vehicles were lined up for two miles in Miramar, Florida as needy individuals waited for hours to get handouts from a local food bank. We are starting to see food lines like this all over the country, and if things are this bad already, what will things look like a few months from now?
The chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago is calling this “the deepest, fastest, most broad-based recession we’ve ever seen”, and I can’t argue with that assessment one bit.
For a moment, I would like for you to consider just a few of the economic news items that we have seen over the past few days…
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-United Airlines has reduced its schedule of flights for May and June “by about 90%” as demand for air travel has absolutely plummeted.
-U.S. retail sales were down 8.7 percent in March.
-J.C. Penney is “considering bankruptcy”.
-Housing starts just collapsed by the most that we have seen in 36 years.
-The mayor of Los Angeles says that large gatherings in his city will likely be banned until 2021.
-Facebook has canceled all large events until June 2021.
-Chinese GDP just experienced the largest drop ever recorded.
Of course nearly every nation will soon report absolutely staggering declines in GDP. The shutdowns have brought economic activity to a standstill all over the globe, and no region is immune.
The following is how the Daily Mail is describing the current state of global trade…
The coronavirus pandemic is crippling global trade because crews on transport ships have been stranded at sea for months and food processing plants have been forced to close, threatening to bring the world’s supply chain to a grinding halt. Shipping workers at sea are denied entry into ports, truckers can’t get to work in some countries or are confronted with complications at borders, food plants are closing and farm harvests going to waste in the crisis.
Does that sound like a “perfect storm” to you?
Well, the truth is that it is just getting started.
Eventually this pandemic will subside, but now that all of the economic dominoes are starting to tumble it will be exceedingly difficult to reverse that momentum.
And as I pointed out the other day, most Americans are not likely to resume all of their normal daily activities once the restrictions are finally lifted, and fear of this virus is going to be a dominant economic force for the foreseeable future.
What all of this means is that we are facing incredible economic pain for the short-term, the mid-term and for a long time to come.
At this point, we should no longer speak of “economic collapse” as something that will happen in the future.
It is here.
It is now.
And it is going to get a lot worse.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Fed Massively Tapered QE-4. Hasn’t Bought Any Junk Bonds, Was Just Jawboning

Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy : $ 2.06 Trillion in 5 Weeks .
Regular folks , forget it .
Since the Fed announced its market bailouts and interventions on March 15 , it has printed and handed to Wall Street $ 2.06 trillion .
But here is the thing : This was front-loaded , and over the past two weeks , it has cut its bailouts in half , and it has to its SPVs that were expected to buy all manner of securities , including equities , junk bonds , and old bicycles .
But those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities – and it ’ s cutting back on those too .
Total assets on the Fed ’ s balance sheet rose by $ 285 billion during the week through April 15 , reported Thursday afternoon , to $ 6.37 trillion .
Over the past five weeks , including the partial bailout-week which started March 16 and ended March 18 , total assets increased by these amounts .
Note the big taper from $ 586 billion and $ 557 billion early on to $ 287 billion in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of assets on the Fed ’ s balance sheet are mostly composed of Treasury securities , mortgage-backed securities ( MBS ) , repurchase agreements ( repos ) , “ foreign central bank liquidity swaps , ” and “ loans ” to its Special Purpose Vehicles ( SPVs ) .
We ’ ll go through them one at a time .
The Fed added $ 154 billion in Treasury securities during the week , down 47 % from the $ 293 billion it had added the week before , and down 57 % from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two week ago .
This is a major factor in the Big Taper of QE-4 .
The sharp reduction in purchases of Treasuries confirms for now that the Fed is sticking to its announcement that it would drastically cut QE after the initial blast .
Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a webcast on April 10 said that the Fed would pack away its emergency tools once “ private markets and institutions are once again able to perform their vital functions of channeling credit and supporting economic growth.
” Whatever that means .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overnight repos plus over a gazillion a week in term repos .
But since the beginning of its asset purchases , repos have receded into the background , and there have been few takers .
The Fed has now reduced its offerings .
And there is only a trickle of activity .
Repo balances on the Fed ’ s balance sheet have now dropped to $ 181 billion .
This decline in repos also contributes to the Big Taper of QE-4 : The Fed has “ dollar liquidity swap lines ” with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the central banks of Canada , England , Australia , New Zealand , Norway , Sweden , Switzerland , Denmark , Singapore , South Korea , Brazil , and Mexico .
The total on its balance sheet increased by $ 20 billion from the prior week to $ 378 billion but has been in the same range all April .
Of note : • 83 % of outstanding liquidity swaps are with the ECB ( $ 138 billion ) and the BOJ ( $ 176 billion ) .
• The Bank of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion ) .
• And there no swaps with the central banks of Canada , Brazil , New Zealand , and Sweden .
The chart below shows daily balances by country .
The balance sheet is for the week ended Wednesday .
But the chart also includes Thursday ( right column ) : Under these swap agreements , the Fed lends newly created dollars to the other central bank and takes their newly created domestic currency as collateral .
The exchange rate is the market rate at the time of the contract .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ days or 84 days .
When the swaps mature , the Fed gets its dollars back , and the other central bank gets its own currency back .
The Fed carries these swaps on its balance sheet valued in dollars at the exchange of the agreement .
Why do the ECB and BOJ want dollars ?
The ECB and the Bank of Japan – the biggest users of the swaps – preside over export-focused economies that both have large trade surpluses with the US and through those surpluses obtain a constant flow of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the second and third largest global reserve currencies ( dollar ’ s share down to 61.8 % ; euro ’ s share at 20.1 % ; yen ’ s share at 5.6 % ) .
Further , the BOJ ’ s foreign exchange reserves include $ 1.2 trillion in US Treasury securities .
In other words , neither the ECB nor the BOJ need the dollars for trade .
They need them to support their banks and companies have large dollar-denominated debts and speculative bets that they need to refinanced with cheap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible .
The category of “ Loans ” is a group of accounts that track what the Fed lends to its SPVs that it set up and what it lends to its Primary Dealers ( the big broker-dealers and banks it does business with ) .
The Fed can lend money to these SPVs which then can buy – even though it would be illegal for the Fed itself to buy – all kinds of stuff , including corporate bonds , junk bonds , equities , and what not .
There was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but nothing has happened since then .
The balances of “ Loans ” fell to $ 120 billion ( from $ 129 billion the prior two weeks ) .
The chart is on the same vertical scale as the repo chart .
After the initial burst , nothing : As you can see in the chart above , the Fed has purchased practically nothing over the past weeks… just jawboning the markets .
The loans by category : • Primary credit : $ 41 billion , down from $ 43 billion .
Expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ junk bonds , but the Fed hasn ’ t bought any yet .
The amounts outstanding predated the “ fallen angel ” expansion .
• Secondary credit : $ 0 ( to purchase corporate bonds , bond ETFs , and even junk-bond ETFs ) .
But none were purchased .
• Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility : $ 52 billion ( down from $ 53 billion ) .
This is the money market bailout where a few weeks ago the Fed bought corporate paper and other assets .
No additions since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit , which has been expanded to buy corporate bonds and junk-bond ETFs , has a balance .
The Fed hasn ’ t bought anything yet .
It has just been jawboning .
And that was enough to trigger a huge rally in bond ETFs , including the iShares iBoxx high-yield corporate bond ETF .
The Fed has drastically cut its purchases of MBS over the past two weeks , as reported by the New York Fed : But there are two complications with MBS .
One , holders of MBS , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the underlying mortgages are paid down or are paid off .
Given the boom in mortgage refinancing due to the lower interest rates , these pass-through principal payments have become a tsunami .
Just to maintain its balance of MBS , the Fed would need to buy a significant amount every week .
Two , MBS trades take a while to settle , and the Fed books the trades only after they settled .
So what we ’ re seeing on the Fed ’ s balance sheet lags the actual trades by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 108 billion is a mix of these two : purchases from the big burst on March 25 and April 1 that finally settled the pass-through principal payments it received : Since March 11 , the Fed printed $ 2.06 trillion and handed it to Wall Street and asset holders .
The sole purpose of this was to inflate asset prices and bail out asset holders .
The potential crumbs offered to small businesses or the real economy have not happened yet .
If the Fed had sent that $ 2.06 Trillion to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each household would have received $ 15,800 .
But forget it , this was helicopter money for Wall Street and for asset holders – particular those with the riskiest bets – and for no one else .

Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy: $2.06 Trillion in 5 Weeks. Regular folks, forget it.
Since the Fed announced its market bailouts and interventions on March 15, it has printed and handed to Wall Street $2.06 trillion. But here is the thing: This was front-loaded, and over the past two weeks, it has cut its bailouts in half, and it has stopped lending new funds
haven’t moved in four weeks
to its SPVs that were expected to buy all manner of securities, including equities, junk bonds, and old bicycles. But those loan amounts. What it has bought were Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities – and it’s cutting back on those too.
Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet rose by $285 billion during the week through April 15, reported Thursday afternoon, to $6.37 trillion. Over the past five weeks, including the partial bailout-week which started March 16 and ended March 18, total assets increased by these amounts. Note the big taper from $586 billion and $557 billion early on to $287 billion in the latest week:
$356 billion (Mar 18, partial bailout week started Mar 16)
$586 billion (Mar 25)
$557 billion (Apr 1)
$272 billion (Apr 8)
$285 billion (Apr 15)
The $6.37 trillion of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet are mostly composed of Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), repurchase agreements (repos), “foreign central bank liquidity swaps,” and “loans” to its Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs). We’ll go through them one at a time.
Treasury securities purchases get slashed.
The Fed added $154 billion in Treasury securities during the week, down 47% from the $293 billion it had added the week before, and down 57% from the $362 billion it had added two week ago. This is a major factor in the Big Taper of QE-4.
The sharp reduction in purchases of Treasuries confirms for now that the Fed is sticking to its announcement that it would drastically cut QE after the initial blast.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a webcast on April 10 said that the Fed would pack away its emergency tools once “private markets and institutions are once again able to perform their vital functions of channeling credit and supporting economic growth.” Whatever that means.
Repos fizzle further.
The Fed was offering gazillion per day in overnight repos plus over a gazillion a week in term repos. But since the beginning of its asset purchases, repos have receded into the background, and there have been few takers. The Fed has now reduced its offerings. And there is only a trickle of activity. Repo balances on the Fed’s balance sheet have now dropped to $181 billion. This decline in repos also contributes to the Big Taper of QE-4:
Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: BOJ & ECB
The Fed has “dollar liquidity swap lines” with the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the central banks of Canada, England, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, Singapore, South Korea, Brazil, and Mexico. The total on its balance sheet increased by $20 billion from the prior week to $378 billion but has been in the same range all April. Of note:
83% of outstanding liquidity swaps are with the ECB ($138 billion) and the BOJ ($176 billion).
The Bank of England is far behind ($22 billion).
And there no swaps with the central banks of Canada, Brazil, New Zealand, and Sweden.
The chart below shows daily balances by country. The balance sheet is for the week ended Wednesday. But the chart also includes Thursday (right column):
Under these swap agreements, the Fed lends newly created dollars to the other central bank and takes their newly created domestic currency as collateral. The exchange rate is the market rate at the time of the contract. These swaps have a maturity of 7 days or 84 days. When the swaps mature, the Fed gets its dollars back, and the other central bank gets its own currency back. The Fed carries these swaps on its balance sheet valued in dollars at the exchange of the agreement.
Why do the ECB and BOJ want dollars?
The ECB and the Bank of Japan – the biggest users of the swaps – preside over export-focused economies that both have large trade surpluses with the US and through those surpluses obtain a constant flow of dollars.
In addition, their currencies are the second and third largest global reserve currencies (dollar’s share down to 61.8%; euro’s share at 20.1%; yen’s share at 5.6%).
Further, the BOJ’s foreign exchange reserves include $1.2 trillion in US Treasury securities.
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In other words, neither the ECB nor the BOJ need the dollars for trade. They need them to support their banks and companies have large dollar-denominated debts and speculative bets that they need to refinanced with cheap dollars. And those swaps make that possible.
“Loans” stalled.
The category of “Loans” is a group of accounts that track what the Fed lends to its SPVs that it set up and what it lends to its Primary Dealers (the big broker-dealers and banks it does business with). The Fed can lend money to these SPVs which then can buy – even though it would be illegal for the Fed itself to buy – all kinds of stuff, including corporate bonds, junk bonds, equities, and what not. There was a burst of activity four weeks ago, but nothing has happened since then.
The balances of “Loans” fell to $120 billion (from $129 billion the prior two weeks). The chart is on the same vertical scale as the repo chart. After the initial burst, nothing:
As you can see in the chart above, the Fed has purchased practically nothing over the past weeks… just jawboning the markets. The loans by category:
Primary credit: $41 billion, down from $43 billion. Expanded recently to include “fallen angel” junk bonds, but the Fed hasn’t bought any yet. The amounts outstanding predated the “fallen angel” expansion.
Secondary credit: $0 (to purchase corporate bonds, bond ETFs, and even junk-bond ETFs). But none were purchased.
Primary Dealer Credit Facility: $35.6 billion (up from $33 billion)
Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility: $52 billion (down from $53 billion). This is the money market bailout where a few weeks ago the Fed bought corporate paper and other assets. No additions since the initial burst.
Note that “Secondary credit, which has been expanded to buy corporate bonds and junk-bond ETFs, has a zero balance. The Fed hasn’t bought anything yet. It has just been jawboning. And that was enough to trigger a huge rally in bond ETFs, including the iShares iBoxx high-yield corporate bond ETF.
MBS.
The Fed has drastically cut its purchases of MBS over the past two weeks, as reported by the New York Fed:
$157 billion (week ended Mar 25)
$145 billion (week ended Apr 1)
$109 billion (week ended Apr 8)
$59 billion (week ended Apr 15)
But there are two complications with MBS.
One, holders of MBS, including the Fed, receive pass-through principal payments as the underlying mortgages are paid down or are paid off. Given the boom in mortgage refinancing due to the lower interest rates, these pass-through principal payments have become a tsunami. Just to maintain its balance of MBS, the Fed would need to buy a significant amount every week.
Two, MBS trades take a while to settle, and the Fed books the trades only after they settled. So what we’re seeing on the Fed’s balance sheet lags the actual trades by some time.
The increase of $108 billion is a mix of these two: purchases from the big burst on March 25 and April 1 that finally settled minus
the pass-through principal payments it received:
If…
Since March 11, the Fed printed $2.06 trillion and handed it to Wall Street and asset holders. The sole purpose of this was to inflate asset prices and bail out asset holders. The potential crumbs offered to small businesses or the real economy have not happened yet.
If the Fed had sent that $2.06 Trillion to the 130 million households in the US, each household would have received $15,800. But forget it, this was helicopter money for Wall Street and for asset holders – particular those with the riskiest bets – and for no one else.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Lobbying Frenzy Unleashed On Capitol Hill By Massive Pool Of Corona-Stimulus Money

Washington lobbying firms are finding new clients as businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic race to influence government policy .
Lobbying firms registered activity for over 140 new clients on issues related to COVID-19 over the last month .
More than two-thirds of those clients have never lobbied at the federal level or had not hired lobbyists in recent years .
The influx of new lobbying activity indicates that K Street isn ’ t being slowed by the coronavirus pandemic .
Rather , the widespread rush to influence the government ’ s response to the virus — and to access @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is creating new opportunities for Washington lobbyists .
Six Flags hired federal lobbyists for the first time since 2005 to request assistance for the shuttered amusement park industry .
New York City ’ s Metropolitan Opera House hired its first lobbyists to ask for financial relief .
Casino operator Penn National Gaming asked for gaming industry support in its first lobbying campaign in seven years .
Many of these lobbying clients likely never thought they would need government relief .
But with the coronavirus pandemic crippling entire sectors of the economy , companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and grants .
Others have pushed the federal government to label their businesses essential .
Lobbyists are seen as a vehicle to get that federal help .
Some of the new lobbying efforts have yielded industry victories .
Lobbyists representing for-profit hospitals and physician staffing firms successfully lobbied Congress to keep “ surprise ” medical billing protections out of the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus bill , the Daily Beast reported .
Brownstein , Hyatt , the top earning lobbying firm in 2019 , took on investor-owned hospital operator Tenet Healthcare and private equity-owned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clients in March .
Envision Healthcare has increased its lobbying spending to fight surprise billing legislation and is one of the funders behind a multi-million dollar ad campaign to pressure lawmakers over the issue .
Many of the lobbying firms attracting new clients are known to sell their connections to President Donald Trump .
Led by Trump fundraiser Marc Lampkin , Brownstein , Hyatt brought in 13 new clients to lobby on COVID-19 relief packages in March .
Real estate investment firm Colony Capital , run by Trump adviser Tom Barrack , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have never hired lobbyists in the past .
Trump fundraiser Brian Ballard is finding new clients , too .
In late March , the Department of Homeland Security updated its list of “ critical ” industries to recommend that laundromats and county recorder offices can remain open .
That ’ s after Ballard ’ s firm lobbied the agency on behalf of New York laundry machine supplier Laundrylux and title insurance company Fidelity National Financial , which pushed for the changes .
Ballard Partners also began lobbying for Secure Democracy , a group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s opposition to vote-by-mail .
Miller Strategies , another Trump-tied firm , is lobbying for NanoPure , LLC , a little known company pitching a hand-held test for infectious diseases like COVID-19 .
Inovio Pharmaceuticals hired former White House aide Robert Wasinger of McGuireWoods to advocate for its coronavirus vaccine .
Lobbying firms and their clients must file first-quarter lobbying reports by April 20 .
Those will reveal how much businesses spent to influence government policy during the first three months of 2020 .
Total lobbying spending is expected to be high , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus pandemic pushed to get their favored provisions into the stimulus bill .

Authored by Karl Evers-Hillstrom via OpenSecrets.org
Washington lobbying firms are finding new clients as businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic race to influence government policy.
Lobbying firms registered activity for over 140 new clients on issues related to COVID-19 over the last month. More than two-thirds of those clients have never lobbied at the federal level or had not hired lobbyists in recent years.
The influx of new lobbying activity indicates that K Street isn’t being slowed by the coronavirus pandemic. Rather, the widespread rush to influence the government’s response to the virus — and to access its massive pool of stimulus money — is creating new opportunities for Washington lobbyists.
Six Flags hired federal lobbyists for the first time since 2005 to request assistance for the shuttered amusement park industry. New York City’s Metropolitan Opera House hired its first lobbyists to ask for financial relief. Casino operator Penn National Gaming asked for gaming industry support in its first lobbying campaign in seven years.
Many of these lobbying clients likely never thought they would need government relief. But with the coronavirus pandemic crippling entire sectors of the economy, companies are scrambling for access to taxpayer-funded loans and grants. Others have pushed the federal government to label their businesses essential.
Lobbyists are seen as a vehicle to get that federal help.
Some of the new lobbying efforts have yielded industry victories. Lobbyists representing for-profit hospitals and physician staffing firms successfully lobbied Congress to keep “surprise” medical billing protections out of the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill, the Daily Beast reported.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Brownstein, Hyatt, the top earning lobbying firm in 2019, took on investor-owned hospital operator Tenet Healthcare and private equity-owned physician staffing firm Envision Healthcare as new clients in March. Envision Healthcare has increased its lobbying spending to fight surprise billing legislation and is one of the funders behind a multi-million dollar ad campaign to pressure lawmakers over the issue.
Many of the lobbying firms attracting new clients are known to sell their connections to President Donald Trump. Led by Trump fundraiser Marc Lampkin, Brownstein, Hyatt brought in 13 new clients to lobby on COVID-19 relief packages in March. Real estate investment firm Colony Capital, run by Trump adviser Tom Barrack, is one of its several high-profile clients that have never hired lobbyists in the past.
Trump fundraiser Brian Ballard is finding new clients, too. In late March, the Department of Homeland Security updated its list of “critical” industries to recommend that laundromats and county recorder offices can remain open. That’s after Ballard’s firm lobbied the agency on behalf of New York laundry machine supplier Laundrylux and title insurance company Fidelity National Financial, which pushed for the changes.
Ballard Partners also began lobbying for Secure Democracy, a group pushing for expanded voting amid Trump’s opposition to vote-by-mail.
Miller Strategies, another Trump-tied firm, is lobbying for NanoPure, LLC, a little known company pitching a hand-held test for infectious diseases like COVID-19. Inovio Pharmaceuticals hired former White House aide Robert Wasinger of McGuireWoods to advocate for its coronavirus vaccine.
Lobbying firms and their clients must file first-quarter lobbying reports by April 20. Those will reveal how much businesses spent to influence government policy during the first three months of 2020. Total lobbying spending is expected to be high, as every major industry affected by the coronavirus pandemic pushed to get their favored provisions into the stimulus bill.
Researcher Dan Auble contributed to this report.