investmentwatchblog--2020-12-11--A summary of the Texas election lawsuit

A summary of the Texas election lawsuit

( Natural News ) Texas claims that the presidential elections as held ( and as directed by government officials outside the legislature ) in Pennsylvania , Georgia , Wisconsin , and Michigan all flagrantly violated their own election laws by materially weakening or doing away with security measures .
Further , according to the U.S. Constitution , the legislature ( representing the citizens ) of each state has absolute authority and responsibility for how presidential electors are chosen ; the will of legislature being expressed through state law .
Texas claims that the violations of election law in these states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enabled and likely to occur .
The lawsuit lists the violations of law in each of the defendant states and provides evidence of fraud ( the number of ballots handled unconstitutionally ) in each of the states sufficient to change the outcome of the ballot counts .
• Vote Tally : 3,445,548 for Biden and 3,363,951 for Trump – margin 81,597 .
• Mail-in ballots increased from 266,208 in 2016 to over 3,000,000 in 2020 .
• The Secretary of State unilaterally abrogated signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots .
• PA supreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballots from 8:00 PM on the day of election to 3 days after the election and adopted a presumption that non-postmarked ballots be considered as valid .
• Election officials in Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties did not follow state law permitting poll-watchers to be present for the opening , counting , and recording of mail-in ballots .
• The Secretary of State directed election officials to remove ballots before 7:00 AM on the day of election in order to “ cure ” defective mail-in ballots .
This was done only in Democrat majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ segregate ballots received after 8:00 PM on election day breaking the promise made to the U.S. Supreme Court thus making it impossible to identify or remove those ballots .
• Ballots with no mailed date : 9,005 ( no evidence they were sent to a voter ) • Ballots returned on or before the mailed date : 58,221 • Ballots returned one day after the mailed date : 51,200 ( Perhaps not impossible , but highly unlikely for the average voter to receive a ballot , fill it out , place it in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next day . )
• On Nov 2 , the day before the election , PA reports that 2.7 million ballots had been sent out .
On Nov 4 that number had increased to 3.1 million — an increase of 400,000 mail-in ballots at election time with literally no reasonable chance of them being used by legitimate voters .
• Vote Tally : 2,472,098 for Biden and 2,458,121 for Trump – margin 12,670 .
• Mail-in ballots : 65.32 % for Biden and 34.68 % for Trump .
• Mail-in ballots increased from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• The Secretary of State unilaterally abrogated signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots .
• The Secretary of State authorized opening and processing mail-in ballots up to three weeks before election day when the law prohibits that until after the polls open on election day .
• The Secretary of State materially weakened the security requirements for ballot rejection based on signature verification or other missing information .
• Mail-in ballot rejection rate for missing or inaccurate information or for non-matching signatures decreased from 6.42 % in 2016 to .36 % in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same rate as 2016 would have resulted in a net gain of 25,587 votes for Trump – twice the number needed to overcome Biden ’ s count .
With a six-fold increase in the number of mail-in ballots , reason would indicate that the rejection rate would increase , or at least stay the same , with so many first-time mail-in ballots .
• Vote Tally : 2,796,702 for Biden and 2,650,695 for Trump – margin 146,007 .
• In 2016 587,618 voters requested mail-in ballots .
In 2020 3.2 million votes were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted by mail at a rate approximately two times that of Republican voters .
• The Secretary of State unilaterally abrogated signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots .
• The Secretary of State sent out unsolicited ballots to all 7.7 million registered voters contrary to election law which requires a voter to request a mail-in ballot through a process that includes a signature to be matched with the voter registration .
• The Secretary of State also allowed absentee ballots to be requested online without signature verification .
• Local election officials in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Biden than for Trump — opened and processed mail-in ballots without poll-watchers present .
• Local election officials in Wayne County also ignored the strict election law requirements of placing a written statement or stamp on each ballot envelope indicating that the voter signature was in fact checked and verified with the signature on file with the state .
• 174,384 mail-in ballots in Wayne County had no valid registration number , indicating they likely resulted from election workers running the same ballots through the tabulator multiple times .
• 71 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were unbalanced , where the number of people who checked in did not match the number of ballots cast .
• Vote Tally : 1,630,716 for Biden and 1,610,151 for Trump – margin 20,565 .
• Mail-in ballots increased from 146,932 in 2016 to 1,275,019 in 2020 .
• The Wisconsin Elections Commission ( WEC ) positioned hundreds of unmanned illegal drop boxes to collect absentee ballots .
( The use of any drop box , manned or unmanned , is directly prohibited by Wisconsin statute .
Any alternate mail-in ballot site “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or the executive director of the board of election commissioners… ” “ Ballots cast in contravention of the procedures specified in those provisions may not be included in the certified result of any election.
” ) • The WEC encouraged voters to unlawfully declare themselves “ indefinitely confined ” in order to avoid security measures like signature verification and photo ID requirements .
Nearly 216,000 voters said they were indefinitely confined in the 2020 election , nearly four times as many as in 2016 .
• Strict laws requiring mail-in voters to certify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adult witness were ignored or circumvented by election officials .
• One hundred thousand ballots were supposedly missing and directed to be “ found ” after election day .
Significant violations of election law that were put into place to protect against election fraud is sufficient to invalidate the results of the elections , apart from whatever evidence is able to be gathered in a short time to show actual numbers of fraudulent ballots .
Reason would indicate that there is a high number of fraudulent ballots that are impossible to identify , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to mail-in ballots were established to begin with .
There is no remedy to correct the Nov 3rd election because ballots that did not adhere to election law can not be identified as separate from those that did .
An accurate count of legal ballots that were cast can not be made .
Therefore , as directed in the Constitution , it falls to the legislature of each state to choose electors as has been done in the past .
Failing that , each state may determine not to submit any presidential electors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Biden overcoming Trump ’ s lead and winning any of the states after the point indicated was one in a quadrillion .
And therefore , the odds of winning all four was one in a quadrillion to the fourth power .
The lawsuit did not provide information on how that number was determined .
This may seem an exaggeration to some .
It is enough to state that the odds of winning any one of the states was highly unlikely and the odds of winning all four were extremely unlikely .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any one of the states was numerically much less extreme but still highly unlikely , say something like one in twenty , then the odds of doing that in all four states would be 1 in 160,000 .
Twenty beans in a jar : 19 white and 1 black .
Reach in without looking and be lucky enough to pull out the one black bean .
Chances of doing that again is 1 in 400 .
Clearly indicative of cheating if someone claims to have done that four times in a row .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the claim of odds of 1 in a 1,000,000,000,000 are not given so I can not speak to that .
But even if the odds were orders of magnitude better than that , they were still astronomically small .
At any rate , the merits of the lawsuit do not depend on any certain level of odds of Biden overcoming a lead that had been established by 3:00 A.M. the day after election .

(Natural News) Texas claims that the presidential elections as held (and as directed by government officials outside the legislature) in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan all flagrantly violated their own election laws by materially weakening or doing away with security measures. Further, according to the U.S. Constitution, the legislature (representing the citizens) of each state has absolute authority and responsibility for how presidential electors are chosen; the will of legislature being expressed through state law.
(Article by Robert Madsen republished from AmericanThinker.com)
Texas claims that the violations of election law in these states created an environment where ballot fraud was enabled and likely to occur. The lawsuit lists the violations of law in each of the defendant states and provides evidence of fraud (the number of ballots handled unconstitutionally) in each of the states sufficient to change the outcome of the ballot counts.
Pennsylvania
Facts:
Vote Tally: 3,445,548 for Biden and 3,363,951 for Trump – margin 81,597. Requests for mail-in ballots 70% Democrats and 25% Republicans. Mail-in ballots increased from 266,208 in 2016 to over 3,000,000 in 2020.
Violations of Election Law:
The Secretary of State unilaterally abrogated signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots. PA supreme court changed existing deadline for receiving mail-in ballots from 8:00 PM on the day of election to 3 days after the election and adopted a presumption that non-postmarked ballots be considered as valid. Election officials in Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties did not follow state law permitting poll-watchers to be present for the opening, counting, and recording of mail-in ballots. The Secretary of State directed election officials to remove ballots before 7:00 AM on the day of election in order to “cure” defective mail-in ballots. This was done only in Democrat majority counties. Election officials did not segregate ballots received after 8:00 PM on election day breaking the promise made to the U.S. Supreme Court thus making it impossible to identify or remove those ballots.
Evidence of Fraud:
Ballots with no mailed date: 9,005 (no evidence they were sent to a voter) Ballots returned on or before the mailed date: 58,221 Ballots returned one day after the mailed date: 51,200 (Perhaps not impossible, but highly unlikely for the average voter to receive a ballot, fill it out, place it in the mail and have it returned the next day.) On Nov 2, the day before the election, PA reports that 2.7 million ballots had been sent out. On Nov 4 that number had increased to 3.1 million — an increase of 400,000 mail-in ballots at election time with literally no reasonable chance of them being used by legitimate voters.
Georgia
Facts:
Vote Tally: 2,472,098 for Biden and 2,458,121 for Trump – margin 12,670. Mail-in ballots: 65.32% for Biden and 34.68% for Trump. Mail-in ballots increased from 213,033 in 2016 to 1,305,659 in 2020.
Violations of Election Law:
The Secretary of State unilaterally abrogated signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots. The Secretary of State authorized opening and processing mail-in ballots up to three weeks before election day when the law prohibits that until after the polls open on election day. The Secretary of State materially weakened the security requirements for ballot rejection based on signature verification or other missing information.
Evidence of Fraud:
Mail-in ballot rejection rate for missing or inaccurate information or for non-matching signatures decreased from 6.42% in 2016 to .36% in 2020. Rejecting 2020 ballots at the same rate as 2016 would have resulted in a net gain of 25,587 votes for Trump – twice the number needed to overcome Biden’s count. With a six-fold increase in the number of mail-in ballots, reason would indicate that the rejection rate would increase, or at least stay the same, with so many first-time mail-in ballots.
Michigan
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Facts:
Vote Tally: 2,796,702 for Biden and 2,650,695 for Trump – margin 146,007. In 2016 587,618 voters requested mail-in ballots. In 2020 3.2 million votes were cast by mail-in ballot. Democrats voted by mail at a rate approximately two times that of Republican voters.
Violations of Election Law:
The Secretary of State unilaterally abrogated signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots. The Secretary of State sent out unsolicited ballots to all 7.7 million registered voters contrary to election law which requires a voter to request a mail-in ballot through a process that includes a signature to be matched with the voter registration. The Secretary of State also allowed absentee ballots to be requested online without signature verification. Local election officials in Wayne County — containing 322,925 more ballots for Biden than for Trump — opened and processed mail-in ballots without poll-watchers present. Local election officials in Wayne County also ignored the strict election law requirements of placing a written statement or stamp on each ballot envelope indicating that the voter signature was in fact checked and verified with the signature on file with the state.
Evidence of Fraud:
174,384 mail-in ballots in Wayne County had no valid registration number, indicating they likely resulted from election workers running the same ballots through the tabulator multiple times. 71% of Wayne County Absent Voter Counting Boards were unbalanced, where the number of people who checked in did not match the number of ballots cast.
Wisconsin
Facts:
Vote Tally: 1,630,716 for Biden and 1,610,151 for Trump – margin 20,565. Mail-in ballots increased from 146,932 in 2016 to 1,275,019 in 2020.
Violations of Election Law:
The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) positioned hundreds of unmanned illegal drop boxes to collect absentee ballots. (The use of any drop box, manned or unmanned, is directly prohibited by Wisconsin statute. Any alternate mail-in ballot site “shall be staffed by the municipal clerk or the executive director of the board of election commissioners…” “Ballots cast in contravention of the procedures specified in those provisions may not be included in the certified result of any election.”) The WEC encouraged voters to unlawfully declare themselves “indefinitely confined” in order to avoid security measures like signature verification and photo ID requirements. Nearly 216,000 voters said they were indefinitely confined in the 2020 election, nearly four times as many as in 2016. Strict laws requiring mail-in voters to certify by signature including the signature of an adult witness were ignored or circumvented by election officials.
Evidence of Fraud:
One hundred thousand ballots were supposedly missing and directed to be “found” after election day.
Conclusion
Significant violations of election law that were put into place to protect against election fraud is sufficient to invalidate the results of the elections, apart from whatever evidence is able to be gathered in a short time to show actual numbers of fraudulent ballots. Reason would indicate that there is a high number of fraudulent ballots that are impossible to identify, which is why the election laws pertaining to mail-in ballots were established to begin with.
There is no remedy to correct the Nov 3rd election because ballots that did not adhere to election law cannot be identified as separate from those that did. An accurate count of legal ballots that were cast cannot be made. Therefore, as directed in the Constitution, it falls to the legislature of each state to choose electors as has been done in the past. Failing that, each state may determine not to submit any presidential electors.
The Texas lawsuit claims the odds of Biden overcoming Trump’s lead and winning any of the states after the point indicated was one in a quadrillion. And therefore, the odds of winning all four was one in a quadrillion to the fourth power. The lawsuit did not provide information on how that number was determined. This may seem an exaggeration to some. It is enough to state that the odds of winning any one of the states was highly unlikely and the odds of winning all four were extremely unlikely. For example, if the odds of winning any one of the states was numerically much less extreme but still highly unlikely, say something like one in twenty, then the odds of doing that in all four states would be 1 in 160,000. Twenty beans in a jar: 19 white and 1 black. Reach in without looking and be lucky enough to pull out the one black bean. Chances of doing that again is 1 in 400. Clearly indicative of cheating if someone claims to have done that four times in a row. As I said the statistical analysis behind the claim of odds of 1 in a 1,000,000,000,000 are not given so I cannot speak to that. But even if the odds were orders of magnitude better than that, they were still astronomically small. At any rate, the merits of the lawsuit do not depend on any certain level of odds of Biden overcoming a lead that had been established by 3:00 A.M. the day after election.
Read more at: AmericanThinker.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-11--Damning Senate report lays bare ALL the Biden financial connections to Communist China — no Biden ca

Damning Senate report lays bare ALL the Biden financial connections to Communist China — no Biden can be our president

( Natural News ) All of those ‘ rumors ’ and ‘ allegations ’ over the past couple of years tying the Biden family to Communist China ?
All of the claims during this year ’ s presidential election cycle that Joe Biden simply can not be president because he is wholly compromised and owned by China ?
The immediate pre-election revelations regarding Hunter Biden ’ s dad-enabled financial deals made with Communist Chinese ‘ business ’ entities ?
Yeah , those were all exactly true , and a damning new Senate report from the Homeland Security and Finance committees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short , what it all means is that there is no way America can allow Joe Biden to ascend to the White House because if he does , China will make so many military , technological and economic advances on our country that it will be overtaken and there won ’ t be any catching up or going back .
According to segments of the report posted on Twitter by independent journalist Kyle Becker : [ Hunter ] Biden and [ business partner Devon ] Archer found willing partners in Chinese national connected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began at least in 2009 , with the creation of Rosemont Seneca Partners with [ Chris ] Heinz , Secretary of State John Kerry ’ s stepson .
Then , several years later , Biden and Archer formed BHR with Bohai Capital and received their business license approval in China shortly after Biden visited China with his father , Vice President Biden .
Note the date : 2009 .
When did Barack Obama and Joe Biden get into office ?
2009 .
( Related : Ariz. Rep. Paul Gosar asks if America is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as deep state steals 2020 election from Trump . )
The records acquired by the Committees show consistent , significant and extensive financial connections among and between Hunter Biden , [ uncle ] James Biden , [ James ’ wife ] Sara Biden , Devon Archer , and Chinese nationals connected to the Communist regime and [ People ’ s Liberation Army ] as well as other foreign nationals with questionable backgrounds .
These connections and the vast amount of money transferred among and between them don ’ t just raise conflicts of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , counterintelligence , and extortion concerns .
The committees ’ report comes amid brand-new revelations , compliments of Fox News ’ Tucker Carlson , that there is far more involvement between the U.S. deep state ( media , political establishment of both parties , Wall Street ) and China than we ’ ve ever known .
In a segment this week , Carlson played video clips of Di Dongsheng , an associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing , who bragged to an audience during a television @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ fool the United States ” via a network of relationships with top American government and business leaders on Wall Street .
“ It turns out that many of the very people who ranted so hysterically about Russia were doing precisely what they claimed to decry .
They were working on behalf of our chief global rival , the government of China , ” Carlson said in his monologue Monday .
“ The Russia hoax , effectively , was a diversion .
It hid something that is not a hoax at all but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us .
We ’ re going to spend the foreseeable future reporting on the relationship between America ’ s political and financial elites and the communist government of China that has made many of them very rich , ” he added before going on to play the video .
“ The Trump administration is in a trade war with us , so why can ’ t we fix the Trump administration ?
Why , between 1992 and 2016 , did China and the U.S. use to be able to settle all kinds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crises we encountered … things were solved in no time … We fixed everything in two months , ” the professor said in the November 28 lecture , in a video that was quickly pulled down from Chinese social media ( which tells us a lot ) .
“ What is the reason ?
I ’ m going to throw out something maybe a little bit explosive here .
It ’ s just because we have people at the top .
At the top of America ’ s core inner circle of power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friends , ” Di Dongsheng noted further .
“ This is as close to a smoking gun as we have ever seen , ” Carlson told viewers , going on to note that the professor said the “ Obama administration was easy to manipulate.
” “ The Chinese had many friends among the Obama people .
The problem came when Donald Trump was elected .
After that , he says , everything changed , ” Carlson noted as he launched another clip of the video .
“ For the past 30 years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the core power of the United States … Since the 1970s , Wall Street had a very strong influence on the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States , so we had a channel to rely on , ” Di Dongsheng said .
“ But the problem is that after 2008 , the status of Wall Street has declined , and more importantly , after 2016 , Wall Street can ’ t fix Trump.
” Di went on to then discuss the Bidens .
After making clear that China ’ s “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fix Trump , ” he suggested that Beijing is now happy that it appears Joe Biden has won the presidency .
“ But now we ’ re seeing Biden was elected .
The traditional elite , the political elite , the establishment , they ’ re very close to Wall Street , ” Di Dongsheng said , suggesting mightily that there were deep financial ties between Hunter Biden and the Chinese government .
“ Di notes , because the Chinese do pay close attention to what we say here , Donald Trump has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Chinese government , ” Carlson elaborated .
“ So now you know why you weren ’ t allowed to talk about Hunter Biden ’ s laptop and why big business aligned as one to suppress that story : Because they were implicated in it.
” Our country has been completely taken away from us .
We have to figure out now how to take it back .
Keep track of the treasonous deep state at Treason.News .

by: JD Heyes
(Natural News) All of those ‘rumors’ and ‘allegations’ over the past couple of years tying the Biden family to Communist China?
All of the claims during this year’s presidential election cycle that Joe Biden simply cannot be president because he is wholly compromised and owned by China?
The immediate pre-election revelations regarding Hunter Biden’s dad-enabled financial deals made with Communist Chinese ‘business’ entities?
Yeah, those were all exactly true, and a damning new Senate report from the Homeland Security and Finance committees lays out all the details.
In short, what it all means is that there is no way America can allow Joe Biden to ascend to the White House because if he does, China will make so many military, technological and economic advances on our country that it will be overtaken and there won’t be any catching up or going back.
HUNTER BIDEN.💻 The Senate report on Hunter Biden just dropped. The damning report doesn't just "raise conflicts of interest concerns, they raise CRIMINAL, FINANCIAL, COUNTERINTELLIGENCE and EXTORTION concerns." Alarming stuff about the Bidens' ties to Ukraine & China.🔻 pic.twitter.com/hXjsbRFUkG — Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) December 8, 2020
According to segments of the report posted on Twitter by independent journalist Kyle Becker:
[Hunter] Biden and [business partner Devon] Archer found willing partners in Chinese national connected to the communist regime. Their work began at least in 2009, with the creation of Rosemont Seneca Partners with [Chris] Heinz, Secretary of State John Kerry’s stepson. Then, several years later, Biden and Archer formed BHR with Bohai Capital and received their business license approval in China shortly after Biden visited China with his father, Vice President Biden.
Note the date: 2009. When did Barack Obama and Joe Biden get into office? 2009. (Related: Ariz. Rep. Paul Gosar asks if America is witnessing “coup d’tat” as deep state steals 2020 election from Trump.)
The report continues:
The records acquired by the Committees show consistent, significant and extensive financial connections among and between Hunter Biden, [uncle] James Biden, [James’ wife] Sara Biden, Devon Archer, and Chinese nationals connected to the Communist regime and [People’s Liberation Army] as well as other foreign nationals with questionable backgrounds. These connections and the vast amount of money transferred among and between them don’t just raise conflicts of interest concerns, they raise criminal financial, counterintelligence, and extortion concerns.
The committees’ report comes amid brand-new revelations, compliments of Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, that there is far more involvement between the U.S. deep state (media, political establishment of both parties, Wall Street) and China than we’ve ever known.
In a segment this week, Carlson played video clips of Di Dongsheng, an associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, who bragged to an audience during a television show that China’s managed to “fool the United States” via a network of relationships with top American government and business leaders on Wall Street.
“It turns out that many of the very people who ranted so hysterically about Russia were doing precisely what they claimed to decry. They were working on behalf of our chief global rival, the government of China,” Carlson said in his monologue Monday.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“The Russia hoax, effectively, was a diversion. It hid something that is not a hoax at all but is real and threatening to all of us. We’re going to spend the foreseeable future reporting on the relationship between America’s political and financial elites and the communist government of China that has made many of them very rich,” he added before going on to play the video.
“The Trump administration is in a trade war with us, so why can’t we fix the Trump administration? Why, between 1992 and 2016, did China and the U.S. use to be able to settle all kinds of issues? No matter what kind of crises we encountered … things were solved in no time … We fixed everything in two months,” the professor said in the November 28 lecture, in a video that was quickly pulled down from Chinese social media (which tells us a lot).
“What is the reason? I’m going to throw out something maybe a little bit explosive here. It’s just because we have people at the top. At the top of America’s core inner circle of power and influence, we have our old friends,” Di Dongsheng noted further.
“This is as close to a smoking gun as we have ever seen,” Carlson told viewers, going on to note that the professor said the “Obama administration was easy to manipulate.”
“The Chinese had many friends among the Obama people. The problem came when Donald Trump was elected. After that, he says, everything changed,” Carlson noted as he launched another clip of the video.
“For the past 30 years, 40 years, we have been utilizing the core power of the United States … Since the 1970s, Wall Street had a very strong influence on the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States, so we had a channel to rely on,” Di Dongsheng said. “But the problem is that after 2008, the status of Wall Street has declined, and more importantly, after 2016, Wall Street can’t fix Trump.”
Di went on to then discuss the Bidens. After making clear that China’s “old friends” were unable to “fix Trump,” he suggested that Beijing is now happy that it appears Joe Biden has won the presidency.
“But now we’re seeing Biden was elected. The traditional elite, the political elite, the establishment, they’re very close to Wall Street,” Di Dongsheng said, suggesting mightily that there were deep financial ties between Hunter Biden and the Chinese government.
“Di notes, because the Chinese do pay close attention to what we say here, Donald Trump has complained about Hunter Biden and his ties to the Chinese government,” Carlson elaborated. “So now you know why you weren’t allowed to talk about Hunter Biden’s laptop and why big business aligned as one to suppress that story: Because they were implicated in it.”
Our country has been completely taken away from us. We have to figure out now how to take it back.
Keep track of the treasonous deep state at Treason.News.
Sources include:
HSGAC.Senate.Gov
NaturalNews.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-11--Supply Chain Excellence Drives Excellent Results for JD.Com

Strengthening the supply chain has never been as essential as it is today .
For JD.com , excellence in logistics has been a key factor in recent strong earnings results .
JD.com , the leading Chinese technology-driven e-commerce company , reported net revenue of RMB174.2 billion ( US $ 25.7 billion ) for the quarter ending September 30 , 2020 , a 29.2 percent increase over the previous year .
In highlighting the company ’ s success , leaders cited the increasingly critical role played by JD Logistics , which now operates more than 800 warehouses with an aggregate gross @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 21.5 million square feet ) .
JD warehouses stock millions of SKUs .
During the third quarter , the logistics wing reduced its turnover days ( a measure of how many days it takes to convert stored inventory into sales ) to 34.3 days .
That figure represents one of the lowest rates among top global retailers and set a new record for the company .
Richard Liu , chairman and chief executive officer of JD.com , noted the importance of logistics as a driver in the company ’ s recent financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic , we are glad to see that our business partners are recovering rapidly with the support of our online and offline supply chain infrastructure , ” he said in a company release .
“ In order to ensure superior customer experience and better serve our business partners , we continued to add new hires even against the backdrop of uncertainties arising from the COVID .
We look forward to continuously leveraging JD ’ s leading supply chain-based technology and nationwide infrastructure for the benefit of the society.
” User-centricity and supply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the JD.com experience .
In 2017 , the company opened its logistics services to third parties .
JD.com now helps its partners with integrated logistics operations that improve warehouse management and fulfillment efficiency .
Revenue from third-party customers generated nearly half of JD Logistics revenue during the recent quarter .
Brand also plays a pivotal role .
When products are marked as being delivered by JD Logistics there ’ s a promise of reliability .
That trustworthiness helps boost sales for third-party merchants using the JD online platform .
In November , China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that JD Express had received one of the highest satisfaction ratings for the quarter among parcel delivery services .
It marks the second time in 2020 JD has won the honor .
The service scored an 80 , above the 78.6 average score , based on an online survey of 15,900 participants in 50 cities of 10 service providers .
Due to improvements in the logistics operation , JD Express now delivers service to 338 cities in China .
One example of the synergy between excellence in logistics and delivery was the 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ event , which saw parcel delivery volume grow 164 percent year over year , 93 percent of JD ’ s first-party orders were delivered on the same or next day .
Zhenhui Wang , CEO of JD Logistics , was named one of the country ’ s top 10 logistics leaders at the 18th China Logistics Entrepreneurs Annual Conference .
JD Logistics also was recognized for its work in addressing needs related to the COVID-19 pandemic .
China ’ s Ministry of Transportation awarded 11 JD Logistics employees with Excellent Individual Award honors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Logistics teams — the Beijing vegetable and fruit transportation team , the Hainan distribution center and the Wuhan Jiangjun delivery station with Team Excellency Awards .
The stories behind these employees is inspirational .
Take Feng Xuetian , head of JD Logistics ’ Southern China branch ’ s cold chain transportation team .
On Chinese New Year ’ s Eve , Feng left his family and traveled 600 miles overnight from Guangzhou to Wuhan , which at the time was the COVID-19 epicenter .
Wuhan had just instituted a lockdown and by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supplies to an expressway checkpoint so they could be delivered to medical personnel .
Wang ’ s team of 200,000 employees has worked throughout the pandemic , delivering more than 70 million medical supplies to front-line workers and institutions .
JD Logistics has also responded to increased demand as customers have turned increasingly to online shopping and delivery in an effort to protect themselves from illness .
“ Logistics can not be suspended for a single minute during the pandemic .
It is not an issue of whether to make money , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said in a TV interview earlier this year .
The logistics arm also was named one of the best social enterprises in China for by HRoot , a human resources media company .
The company cited JD Logistics ’ technological advancements to drive revenue growth and value for employees , clients and the industry .
JD Logistics announced in October it was adding an additional 15,000 logistics employees , including couriers , drivers , sorters and warehouse managers as it focuses on fast fulfillment and reduced delivery times .
For Singles Day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 200 million discounted products and more than 300 million new items via its online platform .
JD Logistics has helped multiple partners in disparate ways in recent months .
Among the notable achievements are its work in response to COVID-19 .
JD Logistics helped build the national emergency materials management platform in 100 days , allowing for precision for locating , managing , accessing and delivering needed supplies .
The company also worked with Nestlé , the world ’ s leading food and beverage company , to launch a large-scale smart storage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company ’ s online Global Smart Supply Chain Summit , the company announced a new initiative , JDL Technology .
The new venture will build digital , intelligent software and hardware supply chain products and solutions .
JD.com is investing in more logistics technology .
As part of the initiative , the company announced plans to add more than 100,000 robots in the next five years to improve customer experiences .
Within three years , the company expects to extend its cloud warehouse for supply chain management across the entire country .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fulfillment and delivery experiences that delight customers , draw new business to its partners , and support the nation ’ s response to a public health crisis .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

Strengthening the supply chain has never been as essential as it is today. For JD.com, excellence in logistics has been a key factor in recent strong earnings results.
JD.com, the leading Chinese technology-driven e-commerce company, reported net revenue of RMB174.2 billion (US$25.7 billion) for the quarter ending September 30, 2020, a 29.2 percent increase over the previous year.
In highlighting the company’s success, leaders cited the increasingly critical role played by JD Logistics, which now operates more than 800 warehouses with an aggregate gross floor area of 20 million square meters (21.5 million square feet).
JD warehouses stock millions of SKUs. During the third quarter, the logistics wing reduced its turnover days (a measure of how many days it takes to convert stored inventory into sales) to 34.3 days. That figure represents one of the lowest rates among top global retailers and set a new record for the company.
Richard Liu, chairman and chief executive officer of JD.com, noted the importance of logistics as a driver in the company’s recent financial success.
“As China emerges from the pandemic, we are glad to see that our business partners are recovering rapidly with the support of our online and offline supply chain infrastructure,” he said in a company release. “In order to ensure superior customer experience and better serve our business partners, we continued to add new hires even against the backdrop of uncertainties arising from the COVID. We look forward to continuously leveraging JD’s leading supply chain-based technology and nationwide infrastructure for the benefit of the society.”
Focus on Excellence Drives Excellent Results
User-centricity and supply chain excellence are at the forefront of the JD.com experience.
In 2017, the company opened its logistics services to third parties. JD.com now helps its partners with integrated logistics operations that improve warehouse management and fulfillment efficiency. Revenue from third-party customers generated nearly half of JD Logistics revenue during the recent quarter.
Brand also plays a pivotal role. When products are marked as being delivered by JD Logistics there’s a promise of reliability. That trustworthiness helps boost sales for third-party merchants using the JD online platform.
Award-Winning Impact from JD Logistics
In November, China’s State Post Bureau newspaper announced that JD Express had received one of the highest satisfaction ratings for the quarter among parcel delivery services. It marks the second time in 2020 JD has won the honor.
The service scored an 80, above the 78.6 average score, based on an online survey of 15,900 participants in 50 cities of 10 service providers.
Due to improvements in the logistics operation, JD Express now delivers service to 338 cities in China.
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One example of the synergy between excellence in logistics and delivery was the 2020 Singles Day Grand Promotion. During that event, which saw parcel delivery volume grow 164 percent year over year, 93 percent of JD’s first-party orders were delivered on the same or next day.
Zhenhui Wang, CEO of JD Logistics, was named one of the country’s top 10 logistics leaders at the 18th China Logistics Entrepreneurs Annual Conference.
JD Logistics also was recognized for its work in addressing needs related to the COVID-19 pandemic. China’s Ministry of Transportation awarded 11 JD Logistics employees with Excellent Individual Award honors. The ministry also gave three JD Logistics teams — the Beijing vegetable and fruit transportation team, the Hainan distribution center and the Wuhan Jiangjun delivery station with Team Excellency Awards.
The stories behind these employees is inspirational. Take Feng Xuetian, head of JD Logistics’ Southern China branch’s cold chain transportation team. On Chinese New Year’s Eve, Feng left his family and traveled 600 miles overnight from Guangzhou to Wuhan, which at the time was the COVID-19 epicenter. Wuhan had just instituted a lockdown and by the next afternoon Feng had delivered crucial medical supplies to an expressway checkpoint so they could be delivered to medical personnel.
Wang’s team of 200,000 employees has worked throughout the pandemic, delivering more than 70 million medical supplies to front-line workers and institutions. JD Logistics has also responded to increased demand as customers have turned increasingly to online shopping and delivery in an effort to protect themselves from illness.
“Logistics cannot be suspended for a single minute during the pandemic. It is not an issue of whether to make money, but a matter of social responsibility,” he said in a TV interview earlier this year.
The logistics arm also was named one of the best social enterprises in China for by HRoot, a human resources media company. The company cited JD Logistics’ technological advancements to drive revenue growth and value for employees, clients and the industry.
JD Logistics announced in October it was adding an additional 15,000 logistics employees, including couriers, drivers, sorters and warehouse managers as it focuses on fast fulfillment and reduced delivery times. For Singles Day, the company expected to sell more than 200 million discounted products and more than 300 million new items via its online platform.
Partnerships, Technology Support Key Advances for Companies
JD Logistics has helped multiple partners in disparate ways in recent months. Among the notable achievements are its work in response to COVID-19. JD Logistics helped build the national emergency materials management platform in 100 days, allowing for precision for locating, managing, accessing and delivering needed supplies.
The company also worked with Nestlé, the world’s leading food and beverage company, to launch a large-scale smart storage and distribution center in Tianjin
At the company’s online Global Smart Supply Chain Summit, the company announced a new initiative, JDL Technology. The new venture will build digital, intelligent software and hardware supply chain products and solutions. JD.com is investing in more logistics technology. As part of the initiative, the company announced plans to add more than 100,000 robots in the next five years to improve customer experiences. Within three years, the company expects to extend its cloud warehouse for supply chain management across the entire country.
The commitment to logistics allows JD.com to provide fulfillment and delivery experiences that delight customers, draw new business to its partners, and support the nation’s response to a public health crisis.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--If history still matters, look out below in 2021

Calling the US stock market “ expensive ” is like calling the sun “ warm.
” It really doesn ’ t do it justice .
“ Insanely overvalued ” is more accurate , as the following charts illustrate : Stocks are now more expensive than ever versus commodities… … and versus their own long-term price trend … Meanwhile , short sellers – people who bet on stocks going down — are having their worst year ever : Call option ( i.e.
, leveraged bets on stocks going up ) volume is spiking … … while the ratio of put options @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call options is plunging : What does all this mean ?
One of two mutually exclusive things : 1 ) In the past , when stocks have gotten anywhere near their current valuation levels they have subsequently crashed .
So if history still matters , look out below in 2021 .
2 ) If we ’ ve entered a new , hyperinflationary world where governments and central banks try to inflate their way out of their past mistakes without regard for the impact on price levels or currency values , then stocks might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ falling in inflation-adjusted terms .
In other words , we become a banana republic .
Gold , in this scenario , will rise faster than equities so it ’ s still possible to make money shorting , but only in a pair trade coupled with long gold positions .

BY JOHN RUBINO
Calling the US stock market “expensive” is like calling the sun “warm.” It really doesn’t do it justice.
“Insanely overvalued” is more accurate, as the following charts illustrate:
Stocks are now more expensive than ever versus commodities…
… and versus their own long-term price trend …
… and versus GDP …
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Meanwhile, short sellers – people who bet on stocks going down — are having their worst year ever:
Call option (i.e., leveraged bets on stocks going up) volume is spiking …
… while the ratio of put options (bets on stocks declining) to call options is plunging:
What does all this mean? One of two mutually exclusive things:
1) In the past, when stocks have gotten anywhere near their current valuation levels they have subsequently crashed. So if history still matters, look out below in 2021.
2) If we’ve entered a new, hyperinflationary world where governments and central banks try to inflate their way out of their past mistakes without regard for the impact on price levels or currency values, then stocks might continue to rise in nominal terms while falling in inflation-adjusted terms. In other words, we become a banana republic. Gold, in this scenario, will rise faster than equities so it’s still possible to make money shorting, but only in a pair trade coupled with long gold positions.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--If you have any doubt what is coming

If you have any doubt what is coming

Listen to this video because THIS is what ’ s about to happen !
!
pic.twitter.com/Bj9YMytAij

Listen to this video because THIS is what’s about to happen!! pic.twitter.com/Bj9YMytAij
— Misty 🇺🇸 (@GroundsMisty) December 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-13--Trump and McEnany both called the Supreme Court traitors.

When the stakes are this high , “ lacking courage ” and “ dodging ” your responsibility both seem like @ @ @ @ @ .

When the stakes are this high, “lacking courage” and “dodging” your responsibility both seem like being a traitor to me.
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Kayleigh on Supreme Court: Yeah there’s no way to say it other than they dodged. They dodged. They hid behind procedure and they refused to use their authority to enforce the constitution. pic.twitter.com/VLi04yIrIC — Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) December 12, 2020
The Supreme Court really let us down. No Wisdom, No Courage! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 12, 2020
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-13--TRUMP — So You’re The President Of The United States …

….that , after careful study and consideration , think you got “ screwed ” , something which will hurt them @ @ @ @ @ join the suit but , within a flash , it is thrown out and gone @ @ @ @ @ the many reasons it was brought .
A Rigged Election , fight on !

….that, after careful study and consideration, think you got “screwed”, something which will hurt them also. Many others likewise join the suit but, within a flash, it is thrown out and gone, without even looking at the many reasons it was brought. A Rigged Election, fight on!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-13--Warning from CodeMonkeyZ: Prepare for Internet darkness.

Collect the phone numbers and email addresses of your online friends .
Register for communication sites not under the control @ @ @ @ @ acquainted with image boards .
Prepare provisions and have IRL backup plans in place .

Collect the phone numbers and email addresses of your online friends.
Register for communication sites not under the control of Big Tech.
Get acquainted with image boards.
Prepare provisions and have IRL backup plans in place.
— Ron (@CodeMonkeyZ) December 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--Today we got kicked off of a United flight going from Denver to Newark because our 2yo would not “co

Today we got kicked off of a United flight going from Denver to Newark because our 2yo would not “ @ @ @ @ @ mask on .
Go see the full IGTV on my Instagram @ elizfulop 😷 pic.twitter.com/KXCICsBSMj

Today we got kicked off of a United flight going from Denver to Newark because our 2yo would not “comply” and keep her mask on. Go see the full IGTV on my Instagram @elizfulop 😷 pic.twitter.com/KXCICsBSMj
— Eliz Orban (@elizfulop) December 12, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--Leaked audio catches Joe Biden admitting Republicans ‘beat the hell out of’ Democrats over the ‘Defu

Leaked audio catches Joe Biden admitting Republicans ‘beat the hell out of’ Democrats over the ‘Defund the Police’ slogan

Former Vice President Joe Biden was caught in a leaked audio admitting that Republicans “ beat the hell out of @ @ @ @ @ “ Defund the Police ” slogan to scare voters away from supporting the party at @ @ @ @ @ audio was leaked from a private “ listening session ” made on Tuesday with civil @ @ @ @ @ also don ’ t think we should get too far ahead of ourselves on dealing @ @ @ @ @ , because they ’ ve already labeled us as being ‘ defund the police.
’ @ @ @ @ @ terms of the organizational structure to change policing , which I promise you will occur @ @ @ @ @ said Biden on the leaked audio .
“ Just think to yourself and give me @ @ @ @ @ that before January 5th , because that ’ s how they beat the living hell @ @ @ @ @ country , saying that we ’ re talking about defunding the police , ” he @ @

Former Vice President Joe Biden was caught in a leaked audio admitting that Republicans “beat the hell out of” Democrats by using the “Defund the Police” slogan to scare voters away from supporting the party at the ballot box.
The audio was leaked from a private “listening session” made on Tuesday with civil rights leaders.
“I also don’t think we should get too far ahead of ourselves on dealing with police reform in that, because they’ve already labeled us as being ‘defund the police.’ Anything we put forward in terms of the organizational structure to change policing, which I promise you will occur, promise you,” said Biden on the leaked audio.
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“Just think to yourself and give me advice if we should do that before January 5th, because that’s how they beat the living hell out of us across the country, saying that we’re talking about defunding the police,” he continued.
www.theblaze.com/news/biden-leaked-audio-defund-police


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--An EPIC Commodities Boom Is Starting

An EPIC Commodities Boom Is Starting

Demand for commodities , tangible assets and the companies that mine , manufacture and transport them is about to blow sky-high predicts , Steen Jakobsen , Chief Economist and CIO at Saxo Bank .
He bases this prediction on several factors .
First , the digital world does not exist independently from the physical world .
And the massive success of virtual platforms over the past several decades has now reached a point where the infrastructure to source , build and deliver the products they sell is becoming a serious constraint .
Second , governments are becoming more concerned about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a significant increase in federal spending on ‘ green ’ infrastructure to drive jobs and upgrade capacity for commerce .
Third , Steen believes the market is not pricing in the prior two factors .
So he expects a price-boom to occur once investors wake up to the fact that commodities haven ’ t been this undervalued relative to other financial assets for at least 50 years : Which is why now , more than ever , is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands both the opportunities and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs , and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate : Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here .
And if you ’ re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months , we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations .
We recommend you do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website .
If you ’ ve already got one , great .
But if not , consider talking to the team at New Harbor .
We ’ ve set up this ‘ free consultation ’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you .

by Adam Taggart
“Digitization and the online platform have become too successful. So much so that they have exceeded the capacity of [the world’s] physical structures to deliver to their success.”
Demand for commodities, tangible assets and the companies that mine, manufacture and transport them is about to blow sky-high predicts, Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO at Saxo Bank.
He bases this prediction on several factors.
First, the digital world does not exist independently from the physical world. And the massive success of virtual platforms over the past several decades has now reached a point where the infrastructure to source, build and deliver the products they sell is becoming a serious constraint.
Second, governments are becoming more concerned about social equity and stability. Steen predicts a significant increase in federal spending on ‘green’ infrastructure to drive jobs and upgrade capacity for commerce.
Third, Steen believes the market is not pricing in the prior two factors. So he expects a price-boom to occur once investors wake up to the fact that commodities haven’t been this undervalued relative to other financial assets for at least 50 years:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Which is why now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands both the opportunities and the risks in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate:
Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here.
And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations.
We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.
But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--Wall Street’s Buy and Hold Mantra Sure to Fail with Michael Pento

Michael Pento says that if bond prices start spiking , then look out below .
When the Door-Dash ’ s @ @ @ @ @ 90 percent in a day , something is amiss .
40 percent of publicly traded @ @ @ @ @ money .
20 percent of them are zombies who can ’ t even make enough @ @ @ @ @ .
People have to have a hedge other than Wall Street ’ s 60-40 portfolio @ @ @ @ @ is betting on the return to normalcy trade .
The buy and hold Mantra of @ @ @ @ @ fail .
When will the next crash come , because it ’ s going to @ @ @ @ @ just a matter of when .
Being prepared and hedged is the key to not @ @ @ @ @ well .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network
Michael Pento says that if bond prices start spiking, then look out below. When the Door-Dash’s of the world go up 90 percent in a day, something is amiss. 40 percent of publicly traded companies aren’t marking money. 20 percent of them are zombies who can’t even make enough to pay their debt service. People have to have a hedge other than Wall Street’s 60-40 portfolio allocation strategy. Wall Street is betting on the return to normalcy trade. The buy and hold Mantra of Wall Street is sure to fail. When will the next crash come, because it’s going to happen, it’s just a matter of when. Being prepared and hedged is the key to not just surviving but thriving as well.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--Market Report: looking back on 2020, and looking ahead

What a year it ’ s been .
I hope you ’ re doing well , both health-wise and wealth-wise .
This is the first time I ’ ve written my market thoughts on this blog since August 2019 , so thank you if you ’ ve been following me since I stopped writing here a year ago .
Now let ’ s dive into the markets .
There is a battle raging between bulls and bears right now .
• Most bears are arguing their outlook by pointing at high sentiment , rich valuations , record-shattering options buying , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moreover , many bears think that a “ real ” correction is long overdue .
• Most bulls are arguing their outlook by pointing out that the market ’ s trend , momentum , and breadth are incredibly strong .
Moreover , the global economy will improve as vaccines rollout while central banks continue to be supportive .
There is no clear right and wrong in the markets , there is no black and white .
It ’ s better to take a step back and first consider your trading strategy and time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bullish or bearish .
There are many ways to skin a cat , and there are many seemingly-opposite but equally successful trading strategies if implemented correctly .
E.g .
implementation : trend following works better when applied to growth stocks than value stocks due to stronger animal spirits driving stronger trends .
• If you are a short-medium term contrarian trader , you should be bearish right now .
• If you are a short-medium term trend follower , you should be bullish right now .
Many short term trend followers doubled or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the market ’ s massive waves .
• If you are a long term buy and hold investor , your portfolio ’ s long term future returns will likely be below expectations .
Now is not the right time to be a buy and hold investor .
Let ’ s look at the markets from bears ’ and bulls ’ perspectives to better understand what is happening right now .
Corporate insiders are incredibly good at trading their own stocks .
They know their companies ’ situation better than outsiders do , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Corporate insiders have a consistent track record of buying their stocks near market bottoms and selling their stocks near market tops .
We created a free website that lists all U.S. corporate insider trading data , and then aggregated that data into an Insider Buy/Sell ratio .
From 2003-present , the Insider Buy/Sell ratio ’ s 1 month average ( for all U.S. stocks ) spiked every time stocks bottomed .
The last spike in insider buying came in March 2020 , after which global stock markets soared .
Right now , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is extremely low .
Insiders buy low , sell high .
We also calculated an Insider Buy/Sell ratio for only S & P 500 stocks .
Once again , the ratio spikes at market bottoms , and is extremely low right now .
Insiders are not chasing the rally .
There were only 8 other historical cases in which the S & P 500 Insider Buy/Sell ratio was this low .
The S & P 500 ’ s forward returns over the next 2-6 months were poor and usually faced pullbacks/corrections : Insider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week I will explain in detail how to use this data .
A powerful 9 month rally has mostly pushed stock market sentiment in only 1 direction – up .
As you ’ ve probably heard of by now , traders are buying call options like there ’ s no tomorrow .
The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio is near its lowest level in 17 years : The Equity Put/Call ratio ’ s long term average has changed over time .
We can look at the Equity Put/Call ratio ’ s 10 dma vs. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generational shift : Such extreme sentiment over the last 15+ years only occurred in 2010 and this year ( both after a recession & bear market ) .
The 2010 historical case was immediately followed by a major correction .
But record call buying this year has not significantly dented the stock market ’ s rally thusfar ( i.e .
it was not a timely SELL signal if you paid attention to this indicator too early ) : I calculated a 10-factor Medium Term Sentiment indicator to better gauge sentiment in the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now , but not as elevated as it was before stocks pulled back in September-October : A closer look at the past few years reveals that stocks can continue to rally a little more despite such extreme sentiment , but a pullback/correction usually was not far off in the distance .
One can make the argument that sentiment is not as useful as it used to be .
From 2017 – present sentiment has consistently stayed at extreme levels for a long time before the market reversed .
• Sentiment was extremely high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nonstop for a year • The market fell in mostly a vertical line in Q4 2018 .
Traders who bought because “ sentiment is too pessimistic !
” mostly bought too early • The market rallied in a vertical line in 2019 , barely taking a breather despite “ extremely high sentiment ” • The market crashed in a vertical line in February – March 2020 .
Many traders bought stocks that fell -10 % , only to watch their stocks fall another -25 % before bottoming .
• The market has rallied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – present .
In the day and age of mass communication and social media , trends are becoming increasingly powerful .
EVERYONE jumps from trend to trend , bandwagon to bandwagon .
Hence why trends are more extended than they used to be and sentiment is consistently more extreme than it used to be .
As a result , I put less emphasis on the importance of sentiment .
Moreover , when using sentiment it is important to wait for true extremes .
E.g .
if before you turned bearish when sentiment reached @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bearish when sentiment reaches 80 .
Now that we ’ ve looked at medium term bearish factors for U.S. stocks , let ’ s look at medium term bullish factors .
The stock market ’ s uptrend and strong momentum are reason enough for short term trend followers to remain bullish right now .
The “ everything rally ” ( and particularly the tech rally ) will “ eventually ” come to a screeching halt .
But until it does , short term trend followers will continue to profit handsomely and be protected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Puru Saxena made a killing this year using this strategy ( over 400 % ! )
As I noted on Monday , ALL major risk assets are rallying : stocks , commodities , real estate , ex-U.S. currencies , etc .
The following chart illustrates the average 180 day % change of 10 stock markets and 4 commodities markets .
• Stock indices from the world ’ s 10 biggest stock markets : U.S. , Japan , Germany , Canada , Australia , UK , China , India , South Korea , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multiple bull markets in the past were started .
For example , this occurred at the start of the 1990s bull market , at the start of the 2003-2007 bull market , and at the start of the 2009-2020 bull market .
It also happened in 1999 after a major scare in 1998 .
Back then , stocks roared for another year before topping .
When this happened in the past , the S & P usually rallied over the next year : Looking at tech & growth stocks specifically , the NASDAQ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a row this week : In the past , such strong momentum almost always led to more gains for the NASDAQ 100 over the next 9 months : The stock market is a tug-of-war between momentum ( trend following ) vs. sentiment ( contrarian ) .
Thusfar momentum is winning .
Many analysts were worried a few months ago because “ breadth is weak ” .
Now that previous laggards such as value stocks , energy stocks , and ex-U.S. stocks are catching up , such worries are dissipating .
Breadth is improving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ P 500 stocks above their 200 dma ( in a long term uptrend ) is at its highest level in years : Such strong breadth , like such strong momentum , can lead to a short term pullback .
However , in the long term it led to more gains for the broad S & P 500 : NASDAQ data paints a similar story : the % of NASDAQ Composite stocks above their 200 dma is at one of the highest levels ever : This was consistently bullish for NASDAQ stocks going forward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ angle , the NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index is at one of its highest readings ever : *This breadth indicator is based on stock advances & declines .
Such powerful breadth occurred 3 other times in the past 20+ years , and consistently pushed the NASDAQ Composite higher over the next year : A major tailwind for stocks in 2021-2022 will be the global economy .
The global economy will most likely improve as vaccines rollout and government stimulus mutes the worst of the pandemic ’ s fallout .
To illustrate the point that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tailwind for stocks , the following chart demonstrates that earnings estimates are being revised upwards : Such strong upwards revisions are common at the start of major bull markets as economic conditions improve and analysts chase the news .
( The 2017/2018 earnings boost was unique in that it was mostly caused by Trump ’ s tax cuts ) .
The following chart maps the S & P 500 against global earnings revisions : While an improving economy is a long term bullish factor for stocks , it is not very important in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are usually followed by massive stock market rallies , and then a multi-month consolidation period .
That is my base case going into 2021 : the best of the rally is behind us , and 2021 will not see the gains we ’ ve seen in 2020 .
News-related sentiment is improving as the world anxiously awaits coronavirus vaccines .
The San Francisco Fed ’ s Daily News Sentiment Index has rallied back to zero ( neutral sentiment ) after plunging during the global lockdowns in March .
Description for this indicator : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign for stocks over the next 3 months .
Perhaps this is due to more optimistic media coverage influencing readers ’ biases , making readers more optimistic towards the macro landscape as well .
The one major historical exception was in March 2002 , when the recession was already over yet stocks continued to fall : Now that we ’ ve looked at the medium term bullish and medium term bearish cases , I ’ d like to touch on the biggest problem for stock market returns over the next 5-10 years : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unique situation today : a new economic expansion has begun while the stock market is at high valuations .
The previous 2 economic expansions and bull markets began while the S & P 500 was at lower valuations ( Forward Price/Earnings ratio of 18 and 15 ) .
Today , forward Price/Earnings ratio is at a hefty 22 .
The higher valuations are when a bull markets begin , the weaker long term future returns are .
E.g .
• The 2004-2007 bull market began at a higher valuation ( P/E of 18 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was weaker .
Stocks needed to grind higher slowly and allow earnings to increase fast enough to work off these high valuations • The 2010-2020 bull market began at a lower valuation ( P/E of 15 ) , so the 2010-2020 bull market was stronger .
Stocks could rally further on earnings increases and multiples expansion .
So while we could be at the start of a multi-year bull market , and stocks could pullback in the short term , I do not think this bull market will be anywhere similar to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not provide as much room for stocks to rally .
Thinking that “ the next one ” will be “ just like the last one ” is a prime example of recency bias .
• If you are a short-medium term contrarian trader , you should be bearish .
Avoid stocks and let the market ’ s short term optimism wash out .
• If you are a short-medium term trend follower , there is no reason at all for you to be bearish .
Be long and have protective stops !
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• If you are a long term buy and hold investor , your portfolio ’ s long term future returns will likely be below expectations .
Perhaps it ’ s better to look at value pockets such as energy stocks .
There are other trading strategies which require you to be neither outright bullish nor bearish right now , and I ’ ll explain my thinking on those next week .
The beauty of trading is that 2 different traders can have entirely different opinions at a point in time , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if they stay true to their own strategy and are open-minded to others ’ strategies .
Personally , I use a basket of different strategies so that my portfolio ’ s returns smooth out .
It ’ s easy for any single trading strategy to go through a rough patch .
It ’ s harder for a group of diversified strategies to all fail at the same time .

by Troy
What a year it’s been. I hope you’re doing well, both health-wise and wealth-wise. This is the first time I’ve written my market thoughts on this blog since August 2019, so thank you if you’ve been following me since I stopped writing here a year ago. Now let’s dive into the markets.
It doesn’t matter if it’s a white cat or a black cat. If it’s a cat that catches mice, it’s a good cat.
There is a battle raging between bulls and bears right now.
Most bears are arguing their outlook by pointing at high sentiment, rich valuations, record-shattering options buying, and a lack of insider buying. Moreover, many bears think that a “real” correction is long overdue. Most bulls are arguing their outlook by pointing out that the market’s trend, momentum, and breadth are incredibly strong. Moreover, the global economy will improve as vaccines rollout while central banks continue to be supportive.
There is no clear right and wrong in the markets, there is no black and white. It’s better to take a step back and first consider your trading strategy and time frame before deciding on whether to be bullish or bearish. There are many ways to skin a cat, and there are many seemingly-opposite but equally successful trading strategies if implemented correctly. E.g. implementation: trend following works better when applied to growth stocks than value stocks due to stronger animal spirits driving stronger trends.
If you are a short-medium term contrarian trader, you should be bearish right now. If you are a short-medium term trend follower, you should be bullish right now. Many short term trend followers doubled or tripled their portfolio this year by riding the market’s massive waves. If you are a long term buy and hold investor, your portfolio’s long term future returns will likely be below expectations. Now is not the right time to be a buy and hold investor.
Let’s look at the markets from bears’ and bulls’ perspectives to better understand what is happening right now.
No corporate insider buying (bearish)
Corporate insiders are incredibly good at trading their own stocks. They know their companies’ situation better than outsiders do, and thus can profit from this information-advantage. Corporate insiders have a consistent track record of buying their stocks near market bottoms and selling their stocks near market tops.
We created a free website that lists all U.S. corporate insider trading data, and then aggregated that data into an Insider Buy/Sell ratio. From 2003-present, the Insider Buy/Sell ratio’s 1 month average (for all U.S. stocks) spiked every time stocks bottomed. The last spike in insider buying came in March 2020, after which global stock markets soared.
Right now, the Insider Buy/Sell ratio for all U.S. stocks is extremely low. Insiders buy low, sell high.
We also calculated an Insider Buy/Sell ratio for only S&P 500 stocks. Once again, the ratio spikes at market bottoms, and is extremely low right now. Insiders are not chasing the rally.
There were only 8 other historical cases in which the S&P 500 Insider Buy/Sell ratio was this low. The S&P 500’s forward returns over the next 2-6 months were poor and usually faced pullbacks/corrections:
Insider trading data is incredibly useful. Next week I will explain in detail how to use this data.
Elevated sentiment (bearish)
A powerful 9 month rally has mostly pushed stock market sentiment in only 1 direction – up. As you’ve probably heard of by now, traders are buying call options like there’s no tomorrow. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio is near its lowest level in 17 years:
The Equity Put/Call ratio’s long term average has changed over time. We can look at the Equity Put/Call ratio’s 10 dma vs. its 200 dma to account for this generational shift:
Such extreme sentiment over the last 15+ years only occurred in 2010 and this year (both after a recession & bear market). The 2010 historical case was immediately followed by a major correction. But record call buying this year has not significantly dented the stock market’s rally thusfar (i.e. it was not a timely SELL signal if you paid attention to this indicator too early):
I calculated a 10-factor Medium Term Sentiment indicator to better gauge sentiment in the U.S. stock market. Sentiment is elevated right now, but not as elevated as it was before stocks pulled back in September-October:
A closer look at the past few years reveals that stocks can continue to rally a little more despite such extreme sentiment, but a pullback/correction usually was not far off in the distance.
One can make the argument that sentiment is not as useful as it used to be. From 2017 – present sentiment has consistently stayed at extreme levels for a long time before the market reversed.
Sentiment was extremely high throughout 2017, but the market rallied nonstop for a year The market fell in mostly a vertical line in Q4 2018. Traders who bought because “sentiment is too pessimistic!” mostly bought too early The market rallied in a vertical line in 2019, barely taking a breather despite “extremely high sentiment” The market crashed in a vertical line in February – March 2020. Many traders bought stocks that fell -10%, only to watch their stocks fall another -25% before bottoming. The market has rallied in mostly a vertical line from April – present.
In the day and age of mass communication and social media, trends are becoming increasingly powerful. EVERYONE jumps from trend to trend, bandwagon to bandwagon. Hence why trends are more extended than they used to be and sentiment is consistently more extreme than it used to be. As a result, I put less emphasis on the importance of sentiment. Moreover, when using sentiment it is important to wait for true extremes. E.g. if before you turned bearish when sentiment reached 70, now you should only turn bearish when sentiment reaches 80.
Now that we’ve looked at medium term bearish factors for U.S. stocks, let’s look at medium term bullish factors.
Strong trend & momentum (bullish)
The stock market’s uptrend and strong momentum are reason enough for short term trend followers to remain bullish right now. The “everything rally” (and particularly the tech rally) will “eventually” come to a screeching halt. But until it does, short term trend followers will continue to profit handsomely and be protected by their stop losses. Excellent traders like Puru Saxena made a killing this year using this strategy (over 400%!)
As I noted on Monday, ALL major risk assets are rallying: stocks, commodities, real estate, ex-U.S. currencies, etc.
The following chart illustrates the average 180 day % change of 10 stock markets and 4 commodities markets.
Stock indices from the world’s 10 biggest stock markets: U.S., Japan, Germany, Canada, Australia, UK, China, India, South Korea, France Commodity prices: crude oil, natural gas, copper, sugar
Such strong across-the-board momentum is how multiple bull markets in the past were started. For example, this occurred at the start of the 1990s bull market, at the start of the 2003-2007 bull market, and at the start of the 2009-2020 bull market. It also happened in 1999 after a major scare in 1998. Back then, stocks roared for another year before topping.
When this happened in the past, the S&P usually rallied over the next year:
Looking at tech & growth stocks specifically, the NASDAQ 100 managed to rally 10 days in a row this week:
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In the past, such strong momentum almost always led to more gains for the NASDAQ 100 over the next 9 months:
The stock market is a tug-of-war between momentum (trend following) vs. sentiment (contrarian). Thusfar momentum is winning.
Strong breadth (bullish)
Many analysts were worried a few months ago because “breadth is weak”. Now that previous laggards such as value stocks, energy stocks, and ex-U.S. stocks are catching up, such worries are dissipating. Breadth is improving, and the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 dma (in a long term uptrend) is at its highest level in years:
Such strong breadth, like such strong momentum, can lead to a short term pullback. However, in the long term it led to more gains for the broad S&P 500:
NASDAQ data paints a similar story: the % of NASDAQ Composite stocks above their 200 dma is at one of the highest levels ever:
Data source: StockCharts
This was consistently bullish for NASDAQ stocks going forward:
Looking at breadth from a different angle, the NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index is at one of its highest readings ever:
*This breadth indicator is based on stock advances & declines.
Such powerful breadth occurred 3 other times in the past 20+ years, and consistently pushed the NASDAQ Composite higher over the next year:
Improving economy (bullish)
A major tailwind for stocks in 2021-2022 will be the global economy. The global economy will most likely improve as vaccines rollout and government stimulus mutes the worst of the pandemic’s fallout.
To illustrate the point that the improving economy is a long term tailwind for stocks, the following chart demonstrates that earnings estimates are being revised upwards:
Such strong upwards revisions are common at the start of major bull markets as economic conditions improve and analysts chase the news. (The 2017/2018 earnings boost was unique in that it was mostly caused by Trump’s tax cuts). The following chart maps the S&P 500 against global earnings revisions:
*earnings revision charts from Yardeni
While an improving economy is a long term bullish factor for stocks, it is not very important in the medium term. Post-recession economic expansions are usually followed by massive stock market rallies, and then a multi-month consolidation period. That is my base case going into 2021: the best of the rally is behind us, and 2021 will not see the gains we’ve seen in 2020.
News-related sentiment is improving as the world anxiously awaits coronavirus vaccines. The San Francisco Fed’s Daily News Sentiment Index has rallied back to zero (neutral sentiment) after plunging during the global lockdowns in March. Description for this indicator:
The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.
Improving news sentiment was usually a good sign for stocks over the next 3 months. Perhaps this is due to more optimistic media coverage influencing readers’ biases, making readers more optimistic towards the macro landscape as well. The one major historical exception was in March 2002, when the recession was already over yet stocks continued to fall:
Now that we’ve looked at the medium term bullish and medium term bearish cases, I’d like to touch on the biggest problem for stock market returns over the next 5-10 years: valuations.
Valuations (long term problem)
We are in a very unique situation today: a new economic expansion has begun while the stock market is at high valuations.
The previous 2 economic expansions and bull markets began while the S&P 500 was at lower valuations (Forward Price/Earnings ratio of 18 and 15). Today, forward Price/Earnings ratio is at a hefty 22. The higher valuations are when a bull markets begin, the weaker long term future returns are. E.g.
The 2004-2007 bull market began at a higher valuation (P/E of 18), so the 2004-2007 bull market was weaker. Stocks needed to grind higher slowly and allow earnings to increase fast enough to work off these high valuations The 2010-2020 bull market began at a lower valuation (P/E of 15), so the 2010-2020 bull market was stronger. Stocks could rally further on earnings increases and multiples expansion.
So while we could be at the start of a multi-year bull market, and stocks could pullback in the short term, I do not think this bull market will be anywhere similar to the previous 2010-2020 bull market. Valuations do not provide as much room for stocks to rally. Thinking that “the next one” will be “just like the last one” is a prime example of recency bias.
Conclusion
To reiterate:
If you are a short-medium term contrarian trader, you should be bearish. Avoid stocks and let the market’s short term optimism wash out. If you are a short-medium term trend follower, there is no reason at all for you to be bearish. Be long and have protective stops! The market can turn downwards any day now. If you are a long term buy and hold investor, your portfolio’s long term future returns will likely be below expectations. Perhaps it’s better to look at value pockets such as energy stocks.
There are other trading strategies which require you to be neither outright bullish nor bearish right now, and I’ll explain my thinking on those next week.
The beauty of trading is that 2 different traders can have entirely different opinions at a point in time, and both can outperform in the long run if they stay true to their own strategy and are open-minded to others’ strategies.
Personally, I use a basket of different strategies so that my portfolio’s returns smooth out. It’s easy for any single trading strategy to go through a rough patch. It’s harder for a group of diversified strategies to all fail at the same time.


investmentwatchblog--2020-12-12--MI AG got Judge to Block Results of the 22 Voting Machines – Ask yourself why?

Here is a Trump tweet on it : Its a clip of Lou Dobbs talking with Patrick Colbeck , about @ @ @ @ @ get the results today of the Audit of the voting machines but is being blocked @ @ @ @ @ request .

Here is a Trump tweet on it:
Its a clip of Lou Dobbs talking with Patrick Colbeck, about how they were suppose to get the results today of the Audit of the voting machines but is being blocked by a Judge via AG request.
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Can anybody explain why Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is BLOCKING the forensic analysis report of the Dominion voting machines that took place on December 6????t.co/BxOEtUYHoi — Ron (@CodeMonkeyZ) December 12, 2020
This needs to go VIRAL.
Michigan has completed a forensic audit of the Dominion voting machines to see if they were rigged— the Attorney General of the state is now BLOCKING the disclosure of the audit results? WHY??!! What is Michigan hiding?!#STOPTHESTEAL t.co/GM9A2t0BDR — Candace Owens (@RealCandaceO) December 11, 2020
AC


Record Breaking Speculation

The stock market is at its most overhyped phase since the late 1990s tech bubble .
Think back to how wrong the people were who claimed we were in an ‘ everything bubble ’ for the entirety of the record breaking expansion in the 2010s .
Now that you see the SPACs and IPO pops this year , you realize we weren ’ t in a bubble from 2010 to 2019 .
Those years set the scene for this craze , but they weren ’ t crazy in themselves .
Here are some stats to back that up .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 250 million market caps have risen over 200 % .
The most in any year from 2010 to 2019 was 42 in 2013 .
Furthermore , if you add up each year ’ s total in that period , you get 152 .
This year is a different animal .
In the same manner , there have been 19 IPO this year where the stock doubled on the first day .
The most from 2010 to 2019 was 6 each in 2013 and 2014 .
There were 25 in total in that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see from the chart above , the first day move on IPO day is getting closer to the peak in 1999 .
Ironically , one of the biggest IPOs in 2021 will be Robinhood .
That is the top trading app for new retail speculators .
Both retail traders and fund managers are all in on this market .
The only difference is retail traders are doing better .
As you can see from the chart above , the NAAIM fund manager exposure index is at 106 again .
It has been above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4 weeks .
It has been above 100 for 4 weeks which is why the 4 week average is at a new record high .
This data only goes back to 2007 , but it ’ s still impressive .
It means the average manager is the most leveraged long it has ever been .
It would have been fun to see this data in the 1990s .
Retail traders have mostly had a great year .
As you can see from the chart above , retail favorites are up 81.5 % year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more retail traders to join in this bubble and we need fund managers to get more leveraged long the riskiest stocks to keep the rally going .
That ’ s because there will be an onslaught of supply via secondaries , IPOs , and SPACs in the coming months .
Investment banks and money losing growth firms are taking advantage of the speculation to make money .
Supply will meet demand .
The tech darlings crashed in the early 2000s .
We like to mention the companies by name because it becomes easier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for those who didn ’ t live through that cycle .
It helps you compare the current stocks to the hot ones of the past .
Furthermore , it ’ s entertaining and informative to hear what speculators were saying at the time .
The problem people have with hearing uber bullish quotes is that they have been hearing them for years .
Just because people are excited about stocks doesn ’ t mean it ’ s a bubble .
Reddit was popular for sharing ideas in 2019 , yet there wasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are complacent about speculation supports the idea that we are in a bubble , but quotes alone don ’ t mean anything .
The early 2000s was a disastrous time for the hottest tech stocks .
As you can see from the chart above , leading up to the bubble peak , the top 10 darlings had an average PE ratio of 90 .
That was over triple the bloated S & P 500 PE ratio of 27 .
That was on peak earnings .
High PE ratios are fine after recessions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expansions .
The S & P 500 returned -32 % from the end of February 2000 to the end of 2002 .
The average stock in this list returned -71 % with Nortel going bankrupt .
HP crashed 65 % even though it had a 15.6 PE ratio .
It was still a hot stock before the bust as it rose 200 % in the 2 years leading up to the peak .
The current darlings are the tech firms that benefited from the one time event that was the shutdown and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initial jobless claims last week was because of Thanksgiving as we mentioned at the time .
It was an easy call because economic restrictions are increasing and people are becoming more hesitant to leave the house .
In the week of December 5th , seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose from 712,000 to 853,000 which was above estimates for 724,000 and the highest estimate which was 800,000 .
That ’ s the biggest increase since March 28th which was the biggest increase of the recession .
Non-seasonally adjusted initial claims rose from 719,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since August 1st .
Claims probably won ’ t increase that much next week .
This is backed up data from the previous week .
However , even if claims fall slightly next week , they will be higher than 2 weeks ago .
PUA claims rose 139,000 to 428,000 .
This caused the total of PUAs plus unadjusted claims to rise 37 % .
As you can see from the chart below , that ’ s the biggest increase in months .
The PUA data isn ’ t reliable though .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 6x increase .
Even without that increase , this was the largest number of PUAs since September .
Cleary , the labor market is getting worse even if the PUA data isn ’ t perfect .
There are 13 million PUAs plus PUECs that will expire on December 26th if a deal isn ’ t made in Congress .
Even though continued claims data is from the week of Thanksgiving , claims rose from 5.527 million to 5.757 million .
They will probably rise next week since there was a big spike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first increase since August 29th .
In the week of November 21st , the total people on all benefits fell from 20.2 million to 19 million .
This sounds good , but that ’ s before weakness picked up .
We are seeing a lot of bubble activity in speculative stocks and IPOs .
Keep in mind , it took the Nasdaq 15 years to recover from the dot com bust after falling 78 % from peak to trough .
Even if this bubble isn ’ t as big , the consequences of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Initial jobless claims rose after the temporary Thanksgiving related decline .
The labor market is weakening because of the pandemic .
The country needed another stimulus package .

by UPFINA
The stock market is at its most overhyped phase since the late 1990s tech bubble. Think back to how wrong the people were who claimed we were in an ‘everything bubble’ for the entirety of the record breaking expansion in the 2010s. Now that you see the SPACs and IPO pops this year, you realize we weren’t in a bubble from 2010 to 2019. Those years set the scene for this craze, but they weren’t crazy in themselves. Here are some stats to back that up.
Not sure if you saw this yet ⬇ pic.twitter.com/KN6VtHnNpV — Asset Mountain (@CapitalUd) December 10, 2020
In 2020, 150 stocks with greater than $250 million market caps have risen over 200%. The most in any year from 2010 to 2019 was 42 in 2013. Furthermore, if you add up each year’s total in that period, you get 152. This year is a different animal. In the same manner, there have been 19 IPO this year where the stock doubled on the first day. The most from 2010 to 2019 was 6 each in 2013 and 2014. There were 25 in total in that 10 year period. As you can see from the chart above, the first day move on IPO day is getting closer to the peak in 1999. Ironically, one of the biggest IPOs in 2021 will be Robinhood. That is the top trading app for new retail speculators.
$NAAIM (active managers) leveraged long w/ 4-wk MA at ATH. Mattered in August but not at all in 2013-14 or 2017 pic.twitter.com/OKdW9nta2k — Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) December 10, 2020
Both retail traders and fund managers are all in on this market. The only difference is retail traders are doing better. As you can see from the chart above, the NAAIM fund manager exposure index is at 106 again. It has been above that level in 3 of the past 4 weeks. It has been above 100 for 4 weeks which is why the 4 week average is at a new record high. This data only goes back to 2007, but it’s still impressive. It means the average manager is the most leveraged long it has ever been. It would have been fun to see this data in the 1990s.
Stocks most favored by retail crowd as per @GoldmanSachs grouping have been on tear since early November … cohort has outperformed broader market considerably, up > 80% YTD vs. 14% for S&P 500
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/wigq2wUnlE — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) December 10, 2020
Retail traders have mostly had a great year. As you can see from the chart above, retail favorites are up 81.5% year to date. Remember, we need more retail traders to join in this bubble and we need fund managers to get more leveraged long the riskiest stocks to keep the rally going. That’s because there will be an onslaught of supply via secondaries, IPOs, and SPACs in the coming months. Investment banks and money losing growth firms are taking advantage of the speculation to make money. Supply will meet demand.
Bubble Goes Splat
The tech darlings crashed in the early 2000s. We like to mention the companies by name because it becomes easier to understand that history does repeat/rhyme, for those who didn’t live through that cycle. It helps you compare the current stocks to the hot ones of the past. Furthermore, it’s entertaining and informative to hear what speculators were saying at the time. The problem people have with hearing uber bullish quotes is that they have been hearing them for years. Just because people are excited about stocks doesn’t mean it’s a bubble. Reddit was popular for sharing ideas in 2019, yet there wasn’t a bubble. The fact that people are complacent about speculation supports the idea that we are in a bubble, but quotes alone don’t mean anything.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Dotcom refresher: "Only $MSFT, $IBM and $ORCL were able to recoup and surpass their 1999-2000 peak stock market valuations, but it took them until Oct. 2016, Oct. 2010 and Jun. 2017, respectively, to do so" I wonder how many would #neversell for 1-2 decades awaiting the recovery pic.twitter.com/p9xlYNJvYd — Abdulla E Fakhro (@abdullaefakhro) December 10, 2020
The early 2000s was a disastrous time for the hottest tech stocks. As you can see from the chart above, leading up to the bubble peak, the top 10 darlings had an average PE ratio of 90. That was over triple the bloated S&P 500 PE ratio of 27. That was on peak earnings. High PE ratios are fine after recessions, but not at the end of expansions. The S&P 500 returned -32% from the end of February 2000 to the end of 2002. The average stock in this list returned -71% with Nortel going bankrupt. HP crashed 65% even though it had a 15.6 PE ratio. It was still a hot stock before the bust as it rose 200% in the 2 years leading up to the peak. The current darlings are the tech firms that benefited from the one time event that was the shutdown and the electric vehicle stocks.
Initial Jobless Claims Spike A Lot
The decline in initial jobless claims last week was because of Thanksgiving as we mentioned at the time. It was an easy call because economic restrictions are increasing and people are becoming more hesitant to leave the house. In the week of December 5th, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose from 712,000 to 853,000 which was above estimates for 724,000 and the highest estimate which was 800,000. That’s the biggest increase since March 28th which was the biggest increase of the recession.
Non-seasonally adjusted initial claims rose from 719,000 to 948,000 which is the highest level since August 1st. Claims probably won’t increase that much next week. This is backed up data from the previous week. However, even if claims fall slightly next week, they will be higher than 2 weeks ago.
PUA claims rose 139,000 to 428,000. This caused the total of PUAs plus unadjusted claims to rise 37%. As you can see from the chart below, that’s the biggest increase in months. The PUA data isn’t reliable though. In Nevada, PUAs rose 53,000 which was a 6x increase. Even without that increase, this was the largest number of PUAs since September. Cleary, the labor market is getting worse even if the PUA data isn’t perfect. There are 13 million PUAs plus PUECs that will expire on December 26th if a deal isn’t made in Congress.
Initial #unemployment claims post-Thanksgiving rebound (more than seasonal factors): ⬆137k to 853k (SA) in w-e Dec5
⬆229k to 948k (NSA) PUA claims (NSA): 428k (⬆139k) > Very high 1.4 million new jobless benefits claimants! 🚨 Alarming fiscal cliff for 14 million PUA & PEUC pic.twitter.com/do2Tv0Xl47 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) December 10, 2020
Even though continued claims data is from the week of Thanksgiving, claims rose from 5.527 million to 5.757 million. They will probably rise next week since there was a big spike in initial claims. This was the first increase since August 29th. In the week of November 21st, the total people on all benefits fell from 20.2 million to 19 million. This sounds good, but that’s before weakness picked up.
Conclusion
We are seeing a lot of bubble activity in speculative stocks and IPOs. Keep in mind, it took the Nasdaq 15 years to recover from the dot com bust after falling 78% from peak to trough. Even if this bubble isn’t as big, the consequences of the coming crash will still be large. Initial jobless claims rose after the temporary Thanksgiving related decline. The labor market is weakening because of the pandemic. The country needed another stimulus package.