investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Everything you need to know about why GILD puts will print next week (if you buy at Open)

Gild is up 16 % + After hours based on a rumor of a study in Chicago in regards to remdesivir as a treatment for COVID , but the only real study on the drug so far is in the New England Journal of Medicine study here : The NEJM study is garbage , and it 100 % can not be justified as a cure for COVID .
This new study does not sound much better .
Even if the results are more promising , they only have 113 subjects in the study ( the last study had basically less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a minute ) .
This stock has fluctuated a LOT based on hearsay , and I see some FD potential as people realize the miracle cure is not here .
Not only that , but the current news leak likely is based on fradulent hype that some people are going to Cash in on when the market opens .
First the nerdy stuff .
This study has many flaws , but here ’ s a few : • Population .
They selected patients who had an O2 sat of < =94 % on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ O2 support ( including Nasal Cannula ) .
30 of these people were ventilated ( associated with very high mortality rates ) , 4 were on ECMO ( associated with extremely high mortality rates , and the rest were on noninvasive ventilation assistance ( Nasal cannula to BiPAP ) • Number of subjects .
An N of 61 is far too low to draw real conclusions , and apparently 8 of those people “ could not be analyzed .
So really an N of 53 .
THEN 4 patients discontinued the treatment prematurely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Results : 57 % of the ventilated patients were extubated 13 % of the patients died ( Mortality rate was 18 % on vents and 5 % off vents ) 100 % of those who were on low-flow O2 or ambient air were discharged .
28 % of patient ’ s on NIV died or were intubated • I can ’ t see how they chose their population , so it is unclear if these people were randomly chosen .
It is suspicious that so many of them are Intubated despite their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on low oxygen , although they did list this as “ compassionate use , ” so high-risk patients were likely chosen , and not randomly .
• The population is EXTREMELY small for a conclusive drug trial .
I know that it isn ’ t a large double-blind FDA trial , but that is my point .
• As a result of the above , their statistics are hardly worth considering , but they report a mortality of 13 % and then try to compare their numbers to studies who report mortality rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” This is mostly on data from China , specifically Wuhan .
They then explicitly say that their data is not comparable : • This data is based on 18 days worth of treatment .
It does not indicate that everyone who survived for 18 days .
Their follow up is anticipated to expand to 28 days , but over HALF of their patients were still hospitalized after the study was published .
Now , anecdotally I have heard COVID mortality rates of about 20 % for mechanically ventilated patients in the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had a hard time finding data related to the mortality rates for people with similar characteristics to those in this study .
Of note , the people in this study did not appear particularly unhealthy .
Only 17 % had diabetes , 11 % had asthma , 25 % had hypertension .
Off the top of my head , this doesn ’ t seem like a representative population of those who would be high risk for complications , and doesn ’ t seem to account for things like COPD for some reason .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ study , but some facts that we know are that it is 113 subjects , and supposedly only 2 people died in the study .
Now , SUPPOSEDLY this study is based on treating severe cases of COVID , but there are a couple of problems with that .
Remember how the previous study included people who weren ’ t even on O2 , but also for some reason was HEAVILY weighted towards people who were intubated or on Non-invasive ventilation ?
This makes me HIGHLY skeptical as to what they consider “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who are on things like ECMO with people who aren ’ t even on O2 , how can you even compare these two populations in terms of mortality ?
The last study had 7 people die out of less than 50 real subjects .
This one supposedly has only 2 , but how do we know that more people were included that were on , say High-flow nasal cannula ( not mechanically ventilated ) ?
Additionally , they say “ over half of our participants were discharged.
” Well , just under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last study .
This also doesn ’ t say anything about improving morbidity or mortality .
The previous study still had over half of their patients in the hospital at 18 days .
Unless they changed their treatments some how , I ’ m willing to bet that the population was different ( they already seemed to have an an unusually healthy “ severe ” population in their previous study , as I mentioned ) .
But the real kicker is that this study does not and can not say shit that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Premarket is already over 4 % over their ATH .
A 113 person study is not going to say shit , and if the study was so magical that it was game changing , it would have likely been shut down and advanced to much bigger trials because of the massive benefit they saw .
If this drug were approved tomorrow for COVID treatment by the FDA , it would be At or over a YEAR before it would be massively produced .
The same is true of a Vaccine ( though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and cheaper ) .
If you are betting on this drug to be a success , it doesn ’ t have to just be a success… …it has to be success and PRAY that other drugs that are available aren ’ t effective in treating COVID and a Vaccine doesn ’ t come out before the drug is rolled out .
EITHER of those scenarios would all but tank this drug and the stock with it .
This stock has been extremely volatile since February , but before that was consistently trading below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ above 90 premarket , basically putting all its new-found value in this one drug that has really not proven much .
This stock basically booms and busts on a weekly basis .
But , I know what you ’ re thinking : “ If the stock moons because of rumors , it ’ s going to hit the ceiling once the study comes out.
” Here ’ s some TA for you , look closely : Don ’ t see it ?
Look closelier : This stock has been booming and busting ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it has always cycled in less than 1 week , until recently when it settled at about 75 .
With this new boom , I predict it will crash during the day , and it likely will crash further before 04/23 .
If you want to be safe , cash in before then because the study data may come out around that time .
Starting next week , expect all the negative articles to pour out about the drug highlighting what I already have said here , and all that enthusiasm will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week .
I would say short this bitch a week out by 9-10 % every time it booms .
Literally can not go tits up .
Some people have already posted this , but there were a SHIT TON of calls purchased just before the news dropped after hours , and many are pointing to the author of the original news : Apparently Adam Feurnstein has a history , I don ’ t know .
But some HIGHLY suspicious trades were put in for calls that expire tomorrow .
Tons of FDs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ volume unless there ’ s some shady shit going on .
This is showing all the signs of a pump-and-dump that you can cash in on with puts So , even if the data for the new study shows that the new drug reduced mortality in severe patients by 66 % , it STILL isn ’ t saying shit with an N of 113 .
The last time this stock got pumped by rumors , it cratered in less than 7 days and didn ’ t even budge when the actual NEJM study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like some people in the background planted the hype and got calls anticipating the pump .
This thing is going down , so it Literally can ’ t go tits up TLDR GILD 75p 04/24 at open when premarket tanks the price Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by VictorVaudeville
Abstract
Gild is up 16%+ After hours based on a rumor of a study in Chicago in regards to remdesivir as a treatment for COVID, but the only real study on the drug so far is in the New England Journal of Medicine study here:
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016
The NEJM study is garbage, and it 100% cannot be justified as a cure for COVID. This new study does not sound much better. Even if the results are more promising, they only have 113 subjects in the study (the last study had basically less than 50, more on that in a minute). This stock has fluctuated a LOT based on hearsay, and I see some FD potential as people realize the miracle cure is not here. Not only that, but the current news leak likely is based on fradulent hype that some people are going to Cash in on when the market opens.
The NEJM Study
First the nerdy stuff. This study has many flaws, but here’s a few:
Population. They selected patients who had an O2 sat of <=94% on room air, or who were on O2 support (including Nasal Cannula). 30 of these people were ventilated (associated with very high mortality rates), 4 were on ECMO (associated with extremely high mortality rates, and the rest were on noninvasive ventilation assistance (Nasal cannula to BiPAP) Number of subjects. An N of 61 is far too low to draw real conclusions, and apparently 8 of those people “could not be analyzed. So really an N of 53. THEN 4 patients discontinued the treatment prematurely, so REALLY and N of 49.
Results: 57% of the ventilated patients were extubated 13% of the patients died (Mortality rate was 18% on vents and 5% off vents) 100% of those who were on low-flow O2 or ambient air were discharged. 28% of patient’s on NIV died or were intubated
Problems
I can’t see how they chose their population, so it is unclear if these people were randomly chosen. It is suspicious that so many of them are Intubated despite their selection including people who would otherwise be on low oxygen, although they did list this as “compassionate use,” so high-risk patients were likely chosen, and not randomly. The population is EXTREMELY small for a conclusive drug trial. I know that it isn’t a large double-blind FDA trial, but that is my point. As a result of the above, their statistics are hardly worth considering, but they report a mortality of 13% and then try to compare their numbers to studies who report mortality rates of 17-78% in “similar populations.” This is mostly on data from China, specifically Wuhan. They then explicitly say that their data is not comparable:
However, the patient’s enrolled in this compationate-treatment program are not directly comparable to those studied in these other reports [from China].
This data is based on 18 days worth of treatment. It does not indicate that everyone who survived for 18 days. Their follow up is anticipated to expand to 28 days, but over HALF of their patients were still hospitalized after the study was published.
Now, anecdotally I have heard COVID mortality rates of about 20% for mechanically ventilated patients in the US. I did a quick search and had a hard time finding data related to the mortality rates for people with similar characteristics to those in this study. Of note, the people in this study did not appear particularly unhealthy. Only 17% had diabetes, 11% had asthma, 25% had hypertension. Off the top of my head, this doesn’t seem like a representative population of those who would be high risk for complications, and doesn’t seem to account for things like COPD for some reason.
The New Chicago Study
www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
There are only rumors surrounding the new study, but some facts that we know are that it is 113 subjects, and supposedly only 2 people died in the study. Now, SUPPOSEDLY this study is based on treating severe cases of COVID, but there are a couple of problems with that.
Remember how the previous study included people who weren’t even on O2, but also for some reason was HEAVILY weighted towards people who were intubated or on Non-invasive ventilation? This makes me HIGHLY skeptical as to what they consider “severe.” If they are lumping in people who are on things like ECMO with people who aren’t even on O2, how can you even compare these two populations in terms of mortality? The last study had 7 people die out of less than 50 real subjects. This one supposedly has only 2, but how do we know that more people were included that were on, say High-flow nasal cannula (not mechanically ventilated)?
Additionally, they say “over half of our participants were discharged.” Well, just under half of their patients were discharged in the last study. This also doesn’t say anything about improving morbidity or mortality. The previous study still had over half of their patients in the hospital at 18 days. Unless they changed their treatments some how, I’m willing to bet that the population was different (they already seemed to have an an unusually healthy “severe” population in their previous study, as I mentioned).
But the real kicker is that this study does not and cannot say shit that will sustain this stock trading at ATH. Premarket is already over 4% over their ATH. A 113 person study is not going to say shit, and if the study was so magical that it was game changing, it would have likely been shut down and advanced to much bigger trials because of the massive benefit they saw.
The Drug
If this drug were approved tomorrow for COVID treatment by the FDA, it would be At or over a YEAR before it would be massively produced. The same is true of a Vaccine (though a vaccine could probably come out faster and cheaper). If you are betting on this drug to be a success, it doesn’t have to just be a success…
…it has to be success and PRAY that other drugs that are available aren’t effective in treating COVID and a Vaccine doesn’t come out before the drug is rolled out. EITHER of those scenarios would all but tank this drug and the stock with it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Stock
This stock has been extremely volatile since February, but before that was consistently trading below 70. Now it is at or above 90 premarket, basically putting all its new-found value in this one drug that has really not proven much.
This stock basically booms and busts on a weekly basis. But, I know what you’re thinking: “If the stock moons because of rumors, it’s going to hit the ceiling once the study comes out.” Here’s some TA for you, look closely:
imgur.com/a/7UuNRuV
Don’t see it? Look closelier:
imgur.com/a/0wNpop5
This stock has been booming and busting ever since the WHO pushed the drug, and it has always cycled in less than 1 week, until recently when it settled at about 75. With this new boom, I predict it will crash during the day, and it likely will crash further before 04/23. If you want to be safe, cash in before then because the study data may come out around that time.
Starting next week, expect all the negative articles to pour out about the drug highlighting what I already have said here, and all that enthusiasm will deflate this stock by end of next week. I would say short this bitch a week out by 9-10% every time it booms. Literally cannot go tits up.
But wait there’s more (Juicy drama)
Some people have already posted this, but there were a SHIT TON of calls purchased just before the news dropped after hours, and many are pointing to the author of the original news:
twitter.com/RealTianZeng/status/1250979087079878656
Apparently Adam Feurnstein has a history, I don’t know. But some HIGHLY suspicious trades were put in for calls that expire tomorrow. Tons of FDs. There’s ZERO reason for that volume unless there’s some shady shit going on.
This is showing all the signs of a pump-and-dump that you can cash in on with puts
Conclusion
So, even if the data for the new study shows that the new drug reduced mortality in severe patients by 66%, it STILL isn’t saying shit with an N of 113. The last time this stock got pumped by rumors, it cratered in less than 7 days and didn’t even budge when the actual NEJM study cam out. Meanwhile, it looks like some people in the background planted the hype and got calls anticipating the pump. This thing is going down, so it Literally can’t go tits up
TLDR GILD 75p 04/24 at open when premarket tanks the price
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--What Should You Know About Online CFD Trading?

We can define CFD trading simply as buying and selling CFDs .
CFD stands for contract for difference and CFDs are derivative products since they help you speculate on different financial markets .
This includes cryptocurrencies , commodities , indices , Forex , and shares .
You do not need to be the owner of the asset in order to participate in online CFDs trading , which is a huge advantage .
Whenever you trade CFDs , you agree to exchange the difference in asset price from when you open the contract to when you close it .
This offers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ easily speculate on price movements that happen in both directions .
You can make money when asset value goes up or when it goes down .
The goal is always to correctly forecast .
With CFD trading , you speculate price movements .
This means that you mimic the traditional trade and you profit from market price going up .
Also , you can open a position that profits when the market goes down in price .
This second operation is known as going short or selling short .
The opposite is known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in the event that you believe Bitcoin price will fall , you sell a CFD share of BTC .
The difference in price is still exchanged between when you opened the position and when you closed it .
However , you do earn a profit when the price drops and you end up with a loss in the event that Bitcoin price goes up .
Long and short CFD trades bring you profits , as long as your forecasts are correct .
The Use Of Leverage In CFD trading , you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are exposed to a much larger position than what you actually “ buy ” without having to make a commitment to the full cost .
Let ’ s say that you want to open a CFD position that is equal to 500 BTC .
In a standard trade , you have to pay for the full value of 500 BTC .
This is done upfront .
With the use of the contract for difference , a percentage of the cost is put down , sometimes as low as 5 % .
Leverage is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help spread the investment capital .
However , loss or profit is calculated based on the full position size .
In the BTC example , this means the difference between 500 BTC price from when the trade was opened to when the trade was closed .
Both losses and profits can end up being magnified , with losses easily becoming higher than the initial deposits .
Due to this , you need to be really careful about what leverage ratio you use .
You need to always trade within the means you have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as being trading on margin .
This is because funds needed to open or/and maintain positions represent just a fraction of the entire trade size .
These funds required are known as margin .
• Deposit Margin – You need this to open the position .
• Maintenance Margin – Might be necessary when trades get really close to incurring a loss that would not be covered by deposit margins .
When the maintenance margin is close , the provider might call the trader .
The goal is to ask to have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funds are not added , the position might be closed and huge losses would appear .
Last but not least , CFD training can be utilized to hedge against portfolio losses .
As an example , if you think that some shares inside your portfolio can be affected by a value dip in the short-term , a part of the loss might be offset by simply going short through the CFD trade .
When you hedge risks with the use of CFDs , a value drop inside the portfolio is offset by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online CFD trade .
Disclaimer : This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB .

We can define CFD trading simply as buying and selling CFDs. CFD stands for contract for difference and CFDs are derivative products since they help you speculate on different financial markets. This includes cryptocurrencies, commodities, indices, Forex, and shares. You do not need to be the owner of the asset in order to participate in online CFDs trading, which is a huge advantage.
Whenever you trade CFDs, you agree to exchange the difference in asset price from when you open the contract to when you close it. This offers the huge benefit of being able to easily speculate on price movements that happen in both directions. You can make money when asset value goes up or when it goes down. The goal is always to correctly forecast.
Short Versus Long CFD Trading
With CFD trading, you speculate price movements. This means that you mimic the traditional trade and you profit from market price going up. Also, you can open a position that profits when the market goes down in price. This second operation is known as going short or selling short. The opposite is known as going long.
As an example, in the event that you believe Bitcoin price will fall, you sell a CFD share of BTC. The difference in price is still exchanged between when you opened the position and when you closed it. However, you do earn a profit when the price drops and you end up with a loss in the event that Bitcoin price goes up.
Long and short CFD trades bring you profits, as long as your forecasts are correct.
The Use Of Leverage
In CFD trading, you can use leverage. This means that you are exposed to a much larger position than what you actually “buy” without having to make a commitment to the full cost. Let’s say that you want to open a CFD position that is equal to 500 BTC. In a standard trade, you have to pay for the full value of 500 BTC. This is done upfront. With the use of the contract for difference, a percentage of the cost is put down, sometimes as low as 5%.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Leverage is oftentimes used by experienced traders because they help spread the investment capital. However, loss or profit is calculated based on the full position size. In the BTC example, this means the difference between 500 BTC price from when the trade was opened to when the trade was closed. Both losses and profits can end up being magnified, with losses easily becoming higher than the initial deposits. Due to this, you need to be really careful about what leverage ratio you use. You need to always trade within the means you have.
What Is Margin?
Oftentimes, leveraged trading is known as being trading on margin. This is because funds needed to open or/and maintain positions represent just a fraction of the entire trade size. These funds required are known as margin.
As you trade CFDs, 2 margin types exist:
Deposit Margin – You need this to open the position.
Maintenance Margin – Might be necessary when trades get really close to incurring a loss that would not be covered by deposit margins.
When the maintenance margin is close, the provider might call the trader. The goal is to ask to have the account topped up. When enough sufficient funds are not added, the position might be closed and huge losses would appear.
Hedging
Last but not least, CFD training can be utilized to hedge against portfolio losses. As an example, if you think that some shares inside your portfolio can be affected by a value dip in the short-term, a part of the loss might be offset by simply going short through the CFD trade. When you hedge risks with the use of CFDs, a value drop inside the portfolio is offset by the gain that is made through the short online CFD trade.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--What Will You Do If They Try To Extend Coronavirus Lockdowns Into Next Year?

We are seeing a massive backlash against the coronavirus lockdowns all over the United States , and it is likely that the protests against these lockdowns will only intensify in the days ahead .
But some elected officials are doubling down and are insisting that “ shelter-in-place ” orders will remain in effect in their jurisdictions for quite a few months to come .
I honestly do not know how that is possibly going to work , because after just a few weeks millions upon millions of Americans have become deeply frustrated with these lockdowns .
Trying to confine people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is likely to spark tremendous explosions of anger , but that appears to be exactly what authorities intend to do in some of our largest urban areas .
For example , New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio just told Fox News that he expects his city will be shut down until July or August… Does he honestly believe that New York City residents will put up with being confined to their homes for another three or four months ?
Over on the west coast , California Governor Gavin Newsom recently told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mass gatherings in his state “ until we get to herd immunity and we get to a vaccine ” … It is exceedingly unlikely that we will get to the point of “ herd immunity ” in the United States this year , and most experts do not anticipate a vaccine until some time in 2021 .
Would he really try to keep his state locked down for that long ?
L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti appears to be on the exact same page , and he has already pretty much ruled out all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2021 ” … Considering the fact that the NFL has two teams in Los Angeles , this is potentially an absolutely devastating blow for football fans .
Of course it is possible that the Rams and the Chargers could play their games elsewhere , but that is probably not likely .
Especially in liberal bastions on the east and west coasts , fear of large gatherings is likely to persist for a long time to come .
Facebook has already canceled all large company events until 2021 , and other big tech firms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a doubt , everyone should be in favor of reasonable measures to help prevent the spread of the virus , but the hysteria that we are seeing in some areas of California right now is off the charts .
For instance , Mendocino County has actually banned people from singing in online worship services .
The following is an excerpt from their absurd social distancing directives… Of course we aren ’ t just seeing this sort of insanity here in the United States .
Over in Australia , Prime Minister Scott Morrison is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social distancing measures for many months to come… These lockdowns may be slowing down the spread of the virus to a certain extent , but they are also absolutely crushing economic activity .
Thousands of businesses have been either crippled or destroyed , and tens of millions of jobs have been lost in the United States alone .
Needless to say , business owners and workers all over the nation are sick and tired of not being able to make a living , and President Trump added fuel to their frustration when he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liberated ” on Friday… And instead of waiting for permission , some business owners across the country have decided that they are going to reopen anyway… As I have warned all along , Americans are simply not going to have much patience with these sorts of lockdowns , and this is particularly true in areas of the nation that tend to lean conservative .
But those on the left are pointing out that we are already starting to see a huge surge in confirmed cases in parts of the country that haven ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being lifted nationwide , it is probably inevitable that we will see another huge wave of new cases and new deaths .
However , it is important to point out that this virus is going to eventually spread through most of the population no matter what measures we take .
Yes , we want to keep our hospitals from being completely overwhelmed , but we also don ’ t want to completely destroy our economy at the same time .
Our policy makers are going to have some very , very tough decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ truth is that this coronavirus pandemic is just the very beginning of our problems .
The months in front of us are going to be extremely challenging , and life as you have known it will never be the same again .
The good news is that some of the coronavirus lockdowns will start to be lifted in the weeks ahead , and that will enable millions of Americans to start making a living once again .
But in other areas , politicians are warning that the lockdowns could last for many months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your state tried to do that , what would you do ?
Please feel free to join the discussion by posting a comment below…

by Michael Snyder
We are seeing a massive backlash against the coronavirus lockdowns all over the United States, and it is likely that the protests against these lockdowns will only intensify in the days ahead. But some elected officials are doubling down and are insisting that “shelter-in-place” orders will remain in effect in their jurisdictions for quite a few months to come. I honestly do not know how that is possibly going to work, because after just a few weeks millions upon millions of Americans have become deeply frustrated with these lockdowns. Trying to confine people to their homes for the foreseeable future is likely to spark tremendous explosions of anger, but that appears to be exactly what authorities intend to do in some of our largest urban areas. For example, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio just told Fox News that he expects his city will be shut down until July or August…
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio joined Bill Hemmer today on FOX News Channel. The mayor told Hemmer he does not expect New York City to open until July or August.
Does he honestly believe that New York City residents will put up with being confined to their homes for another three or four months?
Over on the west coast, California Governor Gavin Newsom recently told the press that there probably will not be mass gatherings in his state “until we get to herd immunity and we get to a vaccine”…
“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to herd immunity and we get to a vaccine,” Newsom told reporters at his press briefing. “Large-scale events that bring in hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of strangers … [are] not in the cards based upon our current guidelines and current expectations,” he said.
It is exceedingly unlikely that we will get to the point of “herd immunity” in the United States this year, and most experts do not anticipate a vaccine until some time in 2021.
Would he really try to keep his state locked down for that long?
L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti appears to be on the exact same page, and he has already pretty much ruled out all large gatherings in his city “until 2021”…
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday that large gatherings like sporting events and concerts are unlikely to occur until 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic, a major blow for one of the world’s major sports and entertainment capitals.
Considering the fact that the NFL has two teams in Los Angeles, this is potentially an absolutely devastating blow for football fans.
Of course it is possible that the Rams and the Chargers could play their games elsewhere, but that is probably not likely.
Especially in liberal bastions on the east and west coasts, fear of large gatherings is likely to persist for a long time to come. Facebook has already canceled all large company events until 2021, and other big tech firms will almost certainly follow suit.
Without a doubt, everyone should be in favor of reasonable measures to help prevent the spread of the virus, but the hysteria that we are seeing in some areas of California right now is off the charts.
For instance, Mendocino County has actually banned people from singing in online worship services. The following is an excerpt from their absurd social distancing directives…
No singing or use of wind instruments, harmonicas, or other instruments that could spread COVID-19 through projected droplets shall be permitted unless the recording of the event is done at one’s residence, and involving only the members of one’s household or living unit, because of the increased risk of transmission of COVID-19.
Of course we aren’t just seeing this sort of insanity here in the United States.
Over in Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is seriously considering extending his nation’s social distancing measures for many months to come…
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Australian public life could be constrained for another year because of the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned on Friday, as the country’s most populous state mulled sending children to school in shifts. Australia has so far avoided the high numbers of coronavirus casualties reported around the world after closing its borders and imposing strict “social distancing” measures for the past month.
These lockdowns may be slowing down the spread of the virus to a certain extent, but they are also absolutely crushing economic activity.
Thousands of businesses have been either crippled or destroyed, and tens of millions of jobs have been lost in the United States alone.
Needless to say, business owners and workers all over the nation are sick and tired of not being able to make a living, and President Trump added fuel to their frustration when he called for several states to be “liberated” on Friday…
President Trump made himself the star of the ‘lockdown rebellion’ on Friday by tweeting ‘LIBERATE Minnesota’ and then adding Michigan and Virginia to the list of states that should be freed. The tweets came one day after the president’s coronavirus taskforce rolled out guidelines that would give governors broad power to decide when states’ economies would open back up amid the coronavirus pandemic.
And instead of waiting for permission, some business owners across the country have decided that they are going to reopen anyway…
Summit Motorsports Park owner Bill Bader Jr. vowed to start holding events with or without government permission, in a Facebook live post earlier this week. “I’m not asking, I’m opening,” he said in the video and said that he thought that business closures were an overreaction. “If in Huron County, for example, we are able to save every life and limit and ultimately mitigate any outbreaks of Covid-19, but in the process of that we all starve to death, what have we accomplished.”
As I have warned all along, Americans are simply not going to have much patience with these sorts of lockdowns, and this is particularly true in areas of the nation that tend to lean conservative.
But those on the left are pointing out that we are already starting to see a huge surge in confirmed cases in parts of the country that haven’t been locked down…
The bump in coronavirus cases is most pronounced in states without stay at home orders. Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over same time, cases jumped 60% in Arkansas, 74% in Nebraska, and 82% in Iowa. South Dakota saw a whopping 205% spike.
Once restrictions start being lifted nationwide, it is probably inevitable that we will see another huge wave of new cases and new deaths.
However, it is important to point out that this virus is going to eventually spread through most of the population no matter what measures we take. Yes, we want to keep our hospitals from being completely overwhelmed, but we also don’t want to completely destroy our economy at the same time.
Our policy makers are going to have some very, very tough decisions in the days ahead, and the truth is that this coronavirus pandemic is just the very beginning of our problems.
The months in front of us are going to be extremely challenging, and life as you have known it will never be the same again.
The good news is that some of the coronavirus lockdowns will start to be lifted in the weeks ahead, and that will enable millions of Americans to start making a living once again.
But in other areas, politicians are warning that the lockdowns could last for many months to come.
If the politicians in your state tried to do that, what would you do?
Please feel free to join the discussion by posting a comment below…


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--U.S. Economy Contracting “At Its Sharpest Pace Since World War Two” And “The Worst Is Yet To Come”

Fear of COVID-19 has unleashed economic chaos on a scale that has already surpassed anything that we witnessed during the last recession , and as you will see below , we are now being warned that “ the worst is yet to come ” .
Many Americans are hoping that things can start to return to normal as the U.S. economy “ reopens ” in the weeks ahead , but the truth is that we are still in the very early chapters of this crisis .
In fact , it is being estimated that we are only one-tenth of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ flattening the curve ” we have actually extended the economic pain .
You see , the truth is that most Americans are going to end up catching this virus one way or another .
All of the “ shelter-in-place ” orders have temporarily slowed down the spread of this coronavirus , but once they are lifted it is inevitable that we will see new waves of people becoming infected .
And if you think that a vaccine will be the golden ticket that gets us out of this mess , you might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there has never been a successful vaccine for any coronavirus .
Of course it is possible that scientists could come up with something this time around , but if the virus mutates significantly that could render any potential vaccine absolutely useless .
In the days ahead , there will be a tremendous amount of debate about the correct way to fight this virus , but meanwhile the U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate .
In fact , Reuters is reporting that economists are now projecting that the U.S. economy is contracting “ at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” … The deepening economic slump was also amplified by other data on Thursday showing manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region plunged to levels last seen in 1980 and homebuilding tumbling by the most in 36 years in March .
The reports followed dismal reports on Wednesday of a record drop in retail sales in March and the biggest decline in factory output since 1946 .
Economists are predicting the economy , which they believe is already in recession , contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace since World War Two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we are in the midst of the largest tsunami of job losses in U.S. history by a very wide margin .
In fact , we are absolutely obliterating the old records , and that truly puts us in unchartered territory .
And as bad as things have already gotten , one prominent expert told Reuters that “ the worst is yet to come ” … Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8 % in the first quarter , which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ package will likely provide little cushion for the economy .
“ The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide , ” said Chris Rupkey , chief economist at MUFG in New York .
“ The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall , the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ As areas around the country start “ reopening for business ” , some of the jobs that were lost will come back .
But the truth is that millions of those jobs are gone permanently , and large numbers of the businesses that were closed down will never open again .
For the foreseeable future , a lot of Americans are going to avoid going to restaurants , bars , movie theaters , shopping malls and other businesses that require close human interaction .
One expert that was interviewed by the Los Angeles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years we need to accept the fact that the world “ will be totally different than what we are used to ” … “ The world that we are going to live in for at least the next two to three years will be totally different than what we are used to , ” said Sung Won Sohn , president of SS Economics and professor at Loyola Marymount University .
“ Because of the psychological shock that we have experienced , we are going to be more cautious , and we will probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we will have fewer contacts with other individuals , ” he said .
“ We are going to be suspicious about things , [ such as ] whether people we are meeting have the virus and will the economy fall back down again.
” The fear that this pandemic has created is going to be with us for a very long time , and it is going to cause enormous shifts in economic behavior even after the U.S. starts “ reopening ” .
In an environment like this , very few people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already imploding all over the nation , and retailers are having a very difficult time envisioning any sort of a positive future for their industry at this point .
But at least we will all be getting big , fat socialist bailout checks from the government , right ?
Actually , they won ’ t be that big , and for most Americans the checks will only get them through about one month .
So once that money is gone , will the federal government send us another round of “ universal basic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have gone down this rabbit hole , the federal government is in danger of sparking civil unrest if they don ’ t keep the checks coming .
In fact , Jim Rickards is entirely convinced that large scale “ social disorder ” is on the way… Unfortunately , Rickards is right on point , and I have also been warning about “ great civil unrest ” for a very long time .
The delicately balanced debt-fueled prosperity that we had been enjoying for so many years has now been shattered , and things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this country .
And this coronavirus pandemic is not going away any time soon .
Over the last 24 hours , the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. has jumped by more than 30,000 and the death toll has risen by more than 2,400 even though most of the nation is currently shut down .
Ending the lockdowns will give a boost to the economy , but it will also cause the virus to start spreading faster , and once that happens we could see another round of lockdowns .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be over until the virus has swept through most of the population , and we are not going to reach that point for quite a while .

by Michael Snyder
Fear of COVID-19 has unleashed economic chaos on a scale that has already surpassed anything that we witnessed during the last recession, and as you will see below, we are now being warned that “the worst is yet to come”. Many Americans are hoping that things can start to return to normal as the U.S. economy “reopens” in the weeks ahead, but the truth is that we are still in the very early chapters of this crisis. In fact, it is being estimated that we are only one-tenth of the way through this pandemic, and by “flattening the curve” we have actually extended the economic pain. You see, the truth is that most Americans are going to end up catching this virus one way or another. All of the “shelter-in-place” orders have temporarily slowed down the spread of this coronavirus, but once they are lifted it is inevitable that we will see new waves of people becoming infected. And if you think that a vaccine will be the golden ticket that gets us out of this mess, you might want to reconsider that belief, because there has never been a successful vaccine for any coronavirus. Of course it is possible that scientists could come up with something this time around, but if the virus mutates significantly that could render any potential vaccine absolutely useless.
In the days ahead, there will be a tremendous amount of debate about the correct way to fight this virus, but meanwhile the U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate.
In fact, Reuters is reporting that economists are now projecting that the U.S. economy is contracting “at its sharpest pace since World War Two”…
The deepening economic slump was also amplified by other data on Thursday showing manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region plunged to levels last seen in 1980 and homebuilding tumbling by the most in 36 years in March. The reports followed dismal reports on Wednesday of a record drop in retail sales in March and the biggest decline in factory output since 1946. Economists are predicting the economy, which they believe is already in recession, contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace since World War Two.
Yesterday, I documented the fact that we are in the midst of the largest tsunami of job losses in U.S. history by a very wide margin.
In fact, we are absolutely obliterating the old records, and that truly puts us in unchartered territory. And as bad as things have already gotten, one prominent expert told Reuters that “the worst is yet to come”…
Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy. “The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.”
As areas around the country start “reopening for business”, some of the jobs that were lost will come back.
But the truth is that millions of those jobs are gone permanently, and large numbers of the businesses that were closed down will never open again.
For the foreseeable future, a lot of Americans are going to avoid going to restaurants, bars, movie theaters, shopping malls and other businesses that require close human interaction. One expert that was interviewed by the Los Angeles Times says that for the next few years we need to accept the fact that the world “will be totally different than what we are used to”…
“The world that we are going to live in for at least the next two to three years will be totally different than what we are used to,” said Sung Won Sohn, president of SS Economics and professor at Loyola Marymount University. “Because of the psychological shock that we have experienced, we are going to be more cautious, and we will probably spend less and save more, and we will have fewer contacts with other individuals,” he said. “We are going to be suspicious about things, [such as] whether people we are meeting have the virus and will the economy fall back down again.”
The fear that this pandemic has created is going to be with us for a very long time, and it is going to cause enormous shifts in economic behavior even after the U.S. starts “reopening”.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In an environment like this, very few people are buying vehicles, the housing market is already imploding all over the nation, and retailers are having a very difficult time envisioning any sort of a positive future for their industry at this point.
But at least we will all be getting big, fat socialist bailout checks from the government, right?
Actually, they won’t be that big, and for most Americans the checks will only get them through about one month.
So once that money is gone, will the federal government send us another round of “universal basic income” checks?
Now that they have gone down this rabbit hole, the federal government is in danger of sparking civil unrest if they don’t keep the checks coming. In fact, Jim Rickards is entirely convinced that large scale “social disorder” is on the way…
Looting, burglary and violence in the midst of a state of emergency are the shape of things to come. The veneer of civilization is paper-thin and easily torn. Most people don’t realize how fragile it is. But they’re going to learn that lesson, I’m afraid. Expect social disorder to get worse long before it gets better.
Unfortunately, Rickards is right on point, and I have also been warning about “great civil unrest” for a very long time. The delicately balanced debt-fueled prosperity that we had been enjoying for so many years has now been shattered, and things are going to get really ugly in this country.
And this coronavirus pandemic is not going away any time soon. Over the last 24 hours, the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. has jumped by more than 30,000 and the death toll has risen by more than 2,400 even though most of the nation is currently shut down.
Ending the lockdowns will give a boost to the economy, but it will also cause the virus to start spreading faster, and once that happens we could see another round of lockdowns.
In the end, our battle with COVID-19 will not be over until the virus has swept through most of the population, and we are not going to reach that point for quite a while.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--US Banks Brace For Surge In Loan Losses (S&P 500 Bank / S&P 500 Index Back To Early 2009 Levels)

Here we go again ?
With the economic shutdown thanks to the Wuhan virus , the Big Banks are in the US are preparing to be over , under , sideways , down .
( Financial Times ) — Loan loss charges at six big American banks reached a total of $ 25.4bn in the first quarter .
This marks a 350 per cent surge in collective provisions across Bank of America , Citigroup , JPMorgan Chase , Wells Fargo , Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley versus a year earlier , as charges soared to levels not seen since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks are ramping up reserves to deal with anticipated loan problems among their clients , as top economists warn that the world economy has already fallen into recession .
The provisions are additions to reserves so banks have enough in their rainy day fund to cover future losses .
Since the start of the year , US banks have been operating under a new accounting standard , dubbed “ current expected credit losses ” .
It has changed how they calculate loan loss provisions , making it hard to compare the most recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had to ensure reserves were enough to cover ‘ incurred losses ’ , which meant they made provisions for loan losses only when customers actually missed payments .
Under the new accounting standard , banks have to make provisions based on a loan ’ s lifetime value .
In practice , this amounts to predicting the future — a difficult task at the best of times , and nigh on impossible in the current environment , which bank executives describe as the most uncertain they have ever seen .
It is little wonder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ index as a percentage of the S & P 500 index is back near its lowest level since early 2009 .
Despite The Fed ’ s massive intervention in the financial markets starting in late 2007 , but continues in force .
The Fed couldn ’ t get the S & P Bank index / S & P index back to early 2007 levels with massive stimulus ?
?

by confoundedinterest
Here we go again?
With the economic shutdown thanks to the Wuhan virus, the Big Banks are in the US are preparing to be over, under, sideways, down.
(Financial Times) — Loan loss charges at six big American banks reached a total of $25.4bn in the first quarter. This marks a 350 per cent surge in collective provisions across Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley versus a year earlier, as charges soared to levels not seen since the financial crisis.
The change illustrates how banks are ramping up reserves to deal with anticipated loan problems among their clients, as top economists warn that the world economy has already fallen into recession.
The provisions are additions to reserves so banks have enough in their rainy day fund to cover future losses.
Since the start of the year, US banks have been operating under a new accounting standard, dubbed “current expected credit losses”. It has changed how they calculate loan loss provisions, making it hard to compare the most recent charges with past performance.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Previously banks had to ensure reserves were enough to cover ‘incurred losses’, which meant they made provisions for loan losses only when customers actually missed payments.
Under the new accounting standard, banks have to make provisions based on a loan’s lifetime value. In practice, this amounts to predicting the future — a difficult task at the best of times, and nigh on impossible in the current environment, which bank executives describe as the most uncertain they have ever seen.
It is little wonder that the S&P 500 banks index as a percentage of the S&P 500 index is back near its lowest level since early 2009.
Despite The Fed’s massive intervention in the financial markets starting in late 2007, but continues in force.
The Fed couldn’t get the S&P Bank index / S&P index back to early 2007 levels with massive stimulus??
Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell pose for recent Fed Chairs painting.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--U, W, V, or L ??

U, W, V, or L ??

After one month of coronavirus lockdown , more than 50 % of Los Angeles is now unemployed .
Follow along @ @ @ @ @ latest # coronavirus news around the globe.t.co/lMHXVn84ka

[Thread] 👇
After one month of coronavirus lockdown, more than 50% of Los Angeles is now unemployed.
Follow along for live updates on the latest #coronavirus news around the globe.t.co/lMHXVn84ka
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 18, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Comrade deBlasio Introduces New York City Snitching Program – Take a Photo of Non-Compliant Behavior

Comrade deBlasio Introduces New York City Snitching Program – Take a Photo of Non-Compliant Behavior…

Comrade Bill deBlasio in New York City is making it easier than ever to snitch on your neighbors .
If @ @ @ @ @ not obeying social isolation orders , or if you spot someone without a mask , @ @ @ @ @ people to take a picture of the rebellious activity and text it to the New @ @ @ @ @ .
Comrades , please note : in the interests of the state any pictures showing @ @ @ @ @ sent by any concerned citizen with a phone from any location .

Comrade Bill deBlasio in New York City is making it easier than ever to snitch on your neighbors. If you happen to spot someone not obeying social isolation orders, or if you spot someone without a mask, the mayor is now asking people to take a picture of the rebellious activity and text it to the New York Division of Compliance Monitoring.
(text with video)
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Comrades, please note: in the interests of the state any pictures showing non-compliant NYC activities can be sent by any concerned citizen with a phone from any location.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Texas will be the first state to reopen starting with public parks and retailers NEXT WEEK if they c

Texas will be the first state to reopen starting with public parks and retailers NEXT WEEK if they can do curbside or home deliveries

• State parks will reopen on Monday and retailers can reopen on Friday April 24 • The retailers will only be allowed to reopen if they can do at-home or curbside deliveries so people will not be allowed inside stores or businesses • Texas has a population of 29million but only has 17,000 coronavirus cases • By comparison , New York City has 8million residents and around 120,000 cases • Gov .
Greg Abbott said he would continue to monitor the outbreak • President Trump said on Thursday that the country could reopen on May 1 • However he is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • That is down to the governors who must also pay for the restart of the economy • Learn more about how to help people impacted by COVID Texas will begin reopening next week , Gov .
Greg Abbott announced on Friday , starting with public parks and retailers on a ‘ to-go ’ basis .
People will still be asked to wear face masks or coverings in public and they must still adhere to social distancing .
Retailers will be able to open again next Friday but on a to-go basis only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s homes , cars or other places .
Surgeries that were postponed because of the pandemic will also be allowed to go ahead , but on a case by case basis .
Schools and universities will however remain closed for the remainder of the school year .
Despite having a population of 29million people , the state has only recorded some 17,000 cases of the virus .
By comparison , New York City – which has a population of more than 8million – has around 120,000 .
Abbott said the reopening would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opening in Texas must occur in stages .
Obviously , not all businesses can open all at once on May the first .
‘ Some businesses , if fully open , without better distancing standards , would be more likely to set us back , rather than to propel us forward .

State parks will reopen on Monday and retailers can reopen on Friday April 24
The retailers will only be allowed to reopen if they can do at-home or curbside deliveries so people will not be allowed inside stores or businesses
Texas has a population of 29million but only has 17,000 coronavirus cases
By comparison, New York City has 8million residents and around 120,000 cases
Gov. Greg Abbott said he would continue to monitor the outbreak
President Trump said on Thursday that the country could reopen on May 1
However he is not responsible for actually implementing reopening plans
That is down to the governors who must also pay for the restart of the economy
Learn more about how to help people impacted by COVID
Texas will begin reopening next week, Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Friday, starting with public parks and retailers on a ‘to-go’ basis.
People will still be asked to wear face masks or coverings in public and they must still adhere to social distancing.
Retailers will be able to open again next Friday but on a to-go basis only meaning they must deliver to people’s homes, cars or other places.
Surgeries that were postponed because of the pandemic will also be allowed to go ahead, but on a case by case basis.
Schools and universities will however remain closed for the remainder of the school year.
Despite having a population of 29million people, the state has only recorded some 17,000 cases of the virus.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
By comparison, New York City – which has a population of more than 8million – has around 120,000.
Abbott said the reopening would be in phases.
‘Understand this: opening in Texas must occur in stages. Obviously, not all businesses can open all at once on May the first.
‘Some businesses, if fully open, without better distancing standards, would be more likely to set us back, rather than to propel us forward.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8231321/Texas-state-reopen-WEEK.html


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--SUPER SPREADERS Spring Break 2020 Florida. In more ways than one.

Welcome to another Spring Break 2020 in the beautiful state of Florida .
Watch and Enjoy .

Welcome to another Spring Break 2020 in the beautiful state of Florida. Watch and Enjoy.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Insolvent Illinois Begs Congress For Pension Bailout!

Illinois pension plans are in serious trouble .
So serious , the states seeks a federal bailout .
Cities are in trouble too !
The president of the Illinois State Senate seeks $ 40 billion to help the pension system , fund unemployment insurance and aid hospitals and cities according to the New York Times .
The letter , sent this week by State Senator Don Harmon , also seeks a $ 15 billion grant to “ stabilize the state ’ s budget , ” $ 9.6 billion in direct aid to Illinois ’ s cities , $ 6 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fund , and hardship money for hospitals and nursing homes , among other things .
Messages left for State Senator Bill Brady , the minority leader , were not immediately returned on Friday evening .
Democrats hold 40 of the State Senate ’ s 59 seats .
I was certain this would happen , but the way this happened is a bit unexpected .
Some of the state pension plans will run out of money in as little as 2-7 years .
Wirepoints reports Illinois pension plans were running out of cash long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funds across Illinois were running out of cash even before the Coronavirus reared its ugly head .
Some funds were even on the brink of becoming pay-as-you-go plans , where pensioners are forced to rely directly on employer operating budgets , and not pension fund assets , to get their retirement checks .
The proof is in the collapsing asset-to-payout ratios of most Illinois pensions .
That ratio – which is one of the statistics Moody ’ s Investors Service uses to measure pension health – compares a fund ’ s total assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits each year .
In other words , it measures how many years a pension plan can make benefit payouts before it runs out of money , assuming no new contributions or investment income .
Illinois ’ worst-off funds only had two to five year ’ s worth of payouts left in 2018 .
They were among the most insolvent in the country .
The COVID-19 market meltdown will have only shrunk their assets further .
Take , for example , the Chicago firefighter fund .
In 2018 , its total assets were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for that year was $ 330 million .
That means it had about 3 years ’ worth of payouts on hand – an asset-to-payout ratio of 3.4 .
There are just a handful of funds in the nation with lower ratios than that .
By comparison , the plan ’ s assets amounted to nearly 10 years ’ worth of payouts in 2000 .
Chicago ’ s firefighter plan is now dangerously close to becoming a pay-as-you-go pension plan .
That would make firefighters dependent on the city – which is already junk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retirement checks .
It ’ s not just the firefighters ’ fund that ’ s in trouble .
It ’ s the same thing for Chicago police .
Their funds ’ ratio was just 4.1 in 2018 .
Chicago municipal had a ratio of 4.7 years .
With the markets and bond yields down significantly , Chicago ’ s funds are now in a precarious position .
The state ’ s funds are only slightly better off .
Illinois ’ biggest fund , the state Teachers ’ Retirement Fund , had a ratio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the turn of the century , it had 17 years ’ worth of payouts .
The State Employees Retirement System had a ratio of only 7 years .
Worst of all is the Illinois lawmakers ’ fund , which had just 2.5 years worth of payouts .
There is much more bad news in the article .
Including a look at various cities .
If the market meltdown persists for much longer , expect the city of Chicago ’ s rating to fall further and for the state ’ s to end up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be huge .
But so far , Gov .
J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot continue to reject an amendment to Illinois ’ pension protection clause .
But soon , they may be forced to choose between either chaos or reforms .
Barring state bankruptcy , pension reform is the only way to cut Illinois ’ strangling debts and to keep pension fund asset-to-payout ratios from plunging straight to zero .
Illinois does not deserve a bailout .
Its pension woes are of it own making , and have nothing to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cities need serious reform starting with the state allowing cities to declare bankruptcy .
Trump could easily have passed national bankruptcy reform in his first Congressional term but he failed to do so .
Now Democrats would likely block it .
Illinois needs both , and both are up to the state , not the federal government .

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
Illinois pension plans are in serious trouble. So serious, the states seeks a federal bailout. Cities are in trouble too!
The president of the Illinois State Senate seeks $40 billion to help the pension system, fund unemployment insurance and aid hospitals and cities according to the New York Times.
The letter, sent this week by State Senator Don Harmon, also seeks a $15 billion grant to “stabilize the state’s budget,” $9.6 billion in direct aid to Illinois’s cities, $6 billion for the state’s unemployment insurance fund, and hardship money for hospitals and nursing homes, among other things. Messages left for State Senator Bill Brady, the minority leader, were not immediately returned on Friday evening. Democrats hold 40 of the State Senate’s 59 seats.
Illinois is Insolvent
I was certain this would happen, but the way this happened is a bit unexpected. Some of the state pension plans will run out of money in as little as 2-7 years.
Wirepoints reports Illinois pension plans were running out of cash long before the Coronavirus hit.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Many pension funds across Illinois were running out of cash even before the Coronavirus reared its ugly head. Some funds were even on the brink of becoming pay-as-you-go plans, where pensioners are forced to rely directly on employer operating budgets, and not pension fund assets, to get their retirement checks. The proof is in the collapsing asset-to-payout ratios of most Illinois pensions. That ratio – which is one of the statistics Moody’s Investors Service uses to measure pension health – compares a fund’s total assets to how much it pays out in benefits each year. In other words, it measures how many years a pension plan can make benefit payouts before it runs out of money, assuming no new contributions or investment income. Illinois’ worst-off funds only had two to five year’s worth of payouts left in 2018. They were among the most insolvent in the country. The COVID-19 market meltdown will have only shrunk their assets further.
Illinois and Chicago Pension Plan Funding
Take, for example, the Chicago firefighter fund. In 2018, its total assets were $1.1 billion and its pension payout for that year was $330 million. That means it had about 3 years’ worth of payouts on hand – an asset-to-payout ratio of 3.4. There are just a handful of funds in the nation with lower ratios than that. By comparison, the plan’s assets amounted to nearly 10 years’ worth of payouts in 2000. Chicago’s firefighter plan is now dangerously close to becoming a pay-as-you-go pension plan. That would make firefighters dependent on the city – which is already junk rated and effectively bankrupt – for their retirement checks. … It’s not just the firefighters’ fund that’s in trouble. It’s the same thing for Chicago police. Their funds’ ratio was just 4.1 in 2018. Chicago municipal had a ratio of 4.7 years. With the markets and bond yields down significantly, Chicago’s funds are now in a precarious position. The state’s funds are only slightly better off. Illinois’ biggest fund, the state Teachers’ Retirement Fund, had a ratio of just 8.2 in 2018. At the turn of the century, it had 17 years’ worth of payouts. The State Employees Retirement System had a ratio of only 7 years. Worst of all is the Illinois lawmakers’ fund, which had just 2.5 years worth of payouts.
There is much more bad news in the article. Including a look at various cities.
Wirepoint Concludes
If the market meltdown persists for much longer, expect the city of Chicago’s rating to fall further and for the state’s to end up in junk. The consequences of both would be huge. But so far, Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot continue to reject an amendment to Illinois’ pension protection clause. But soon, they may be forced to choose between either chaos or reforms. Barring state bankruptcy, pension reform is the only way to cut Illinois’ strangling debts and to keep pension fund asset-to-payout ratios from plunging straight to zero.
No Bailout
Illinois does not deserve a bailout. Its pension woes are of it own making, and have nothing to do with the coronavirus.
The state and cities need serious reform starting with the state allowing cities to declare bankruptcy.
Trump could easily have passed national bankruptcy reform in his first Congressional term but he failed to do so. Now Democrats would likely block it.
Two Things
Bankruptcy Reform Pension Reform
Illinois needs both, and both are up to the state, not the federal government.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--President Trump Redirects World Health Organization Funds To Red Cross And Samaritan’s Purse

The White House Budget Office instructed federal agencies to redirect the money normally intended for the World Health organization to groups that perform similar work such as the Red Cross and Samaritan ’ s Purse .
The move indicates that President Donald Trump intends to make his temporary halt on funding to the WHO permanent , the New York Post reported Thursday .
The Post report noted that “ Trump administration officials have ceased ‘ voluntary ’ contributions from agencies including USAID , the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Health and Human Services — totaling about $ 300 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The president on Tuesday announced that he would suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations relief organization due to its role in parroting China ’ s lies and misinformation about COVID-19 in the early stages of the global pandemic .
The WHO repeated without scrutiny the Chinese government ’ s dubious claims that the disease was not spread as a result of human-to-human transmission , and failed to call the communist government out when it had become apparent they were misleading the global community about the virus .
The U.S. was the largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roughly 10 % of the WHO ’ s yearly $ 4.8 billion budget .

The White House Budget Office instructed federal agencies to redirect the money normally intended for the World Health organization to groups that perform similar work such as the Red Cross and Samaritan’s Purse.
The move indicates that President Donald Trump intends to make his temporary halt on funding to the WHO permanent, the New York Post reported Thursday.
The Post report noted that “Trump administration officials have ceased ‘voluntary’ contributions from agencies including USAID, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Health and Human Services — totaling about $300 million-$400 million a year.”
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The president on Tuesday announced that he would suspend U.S. funding of the United Nations relief organization due to its role in parroting China’s lies and misinformation about COVID-19 in the early stages of the global pandemic. The WHO repeated without scrutiny the Chinese government’s dubious claims that the disease was not spread as a result of human-to-human transmission, and failed to call the communist government out when it had become apparent they were misleading the global community about the virus.
The U.S. was the largest donor to the organization, accounting for roughly 10% of the WHO’s yearly $4.8 billion budget.
www.theblaze.com/news/trump-redirects-world-health-funding?utm_content=bufferad76f&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=tw-theblaze


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--It’s IMPOSSIBLE for the COVID test to be detecting ALL Coronaviruses, and here is why…

After reading quite a bit about the testing , it seems like the statement made around here about the Covid tests showing positive results when in the presence of any Coronavirus antibodies is nonsense , a myth that a lot of people are buying into .
For starters , PCR TESTS DO NOT TEST FOR ANTIBODIES !
THEY ONLY TEST FOR ACTIVE INFECTIONS !
!
!
But this is where you really need to pay attention… Think about it… if there are tests that are coming back negative , do you really think there are people out there that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and HCoV-OC43 , which were isolated nearly 50 years ago ?
Or what about HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-HKU1 which have only recently been identified in the past 15 years or so ?
These viruses make up 15-30 % of all lower respiratory tract infections each year… As children we all had them , because they specifically seem to affect children/neonates more than non-elderly adults .
If you think the test is detecting ANY CoV , then you are insinuating that the portion of patients on which the 3,572,257 test were performed yet came out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4/16 ) HAVE NEVER HAD A CORONAVIRUS TYPE COLD !
YOU ARE SAYING THAT 1 out of 5 people tested NEVER had the common-cold that comes from a Coronavirus in their entire lives !
But , but , we ALL have coronaviruses , right ?
Additionally , if any of the tests we have for the afforementioned previously isolated Coronaviruses work in the same manner being proposed , i.e .
one test detects ALL CoV ’ s… then why the hell didn ’ t they use those or even the tests for SARS-CoV-1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ genome of SARS-CoV-2 at all ?
Sorry , I had to get that off my chest because the stupidity behind such an assertion is almost mind numbing .
Here are some supplementary links to research papers and articles for learning more about CoV ’ s and the testing for the endemic strains of HCoV ’ s :

After reading quite a bit about the testing, it seems like the statement made around here about the Covid tests showing positive results when in the presence of any Coronavirus antibodies is nonsense, a myth that a lot of people are buying into.
For starters, PCR TESTS DO NOT TEST FOR ANTIBODIES!
THEY ONLY TEST FOR ACTIVE INFECTIONS!!!
But this is where you really need to pay attention…
Think about it… if there are tests that are coming back negative, do you really think there are people out there that have never had a common-cold-type Coronavirus like HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43, which were isolated nearly 50 years ago?
Or what about HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-HKU1 which have only recently been identified in the past 15 years or so?
These viruses make up 15-30% of all lower respiratory tract infections each year…
As children we all had them, because they specifically seem to affect children/neonates more than non-elderly adults.
If you think the test is detecting ANY CoV, then you are insinuating that the portion of patients on which the 3,572,257 test were performed yet came out negative (709,735 positive tests as of 4/16) HAVE NEVER HAD A CORONAVIRUS TYPE COLD!
YOU ARE SAYING THAT 1 out of 5 people tested NEVER had the common-cold that comes from a Coronavirus in their entire lives!
But, but, we ALL have coronaviruses, right?
Additionally, if any of the tests we have for the afforementioned previously isolated Coronaviruses work in the same manner being proposed, i.e. one test detects ALL CoV’s… then why the hell didn’t they use those or even the tests for SARS-CoV-1 or MERS-CoV?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Why bother isolating the genome of SARS-CoV-2 at all?
Simple logic.
Sorry, I had to get that off my chest because the stupidity behind such an assertion is almost mind numbing.
Here are some supplementary links to research papers and articles for learning more about CoV’s and the testing for the endemic strains of HCoV’s:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5389864/
www.livescience.com/coronavirus-tests-available.html
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947
www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/scientists-compare-novel-coronavirus-to-sars-and-mers-viruses-67088
www.certest.es/products/multiplex-coronavirus-229e-nl63-oc43-hku1/
h/t BFD


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-19--Paris, France vs Coronavirus | Unseen lockdown

Paris vs Coronavirus | Unseen lockdown from Clement Lefer | Director & DP on Vimeo .
A visual and audio @ @ @ @ @ views of Paris , France , during coronavirus national lockdown .
Colored with testimonies from @ @ @ @ @ this film intends to present the new face of the daily life and the emotions @ @ @ @ @ never before encountered in France , and in the world .
COVID19 has changed lives @ @ @ @ @ look at the world .

Paris vs Coronavirus | Unseen lockdown from Clement Lefer | Director & DP on Vimeo.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
A visual and audio journey through the most surreal views of Paris, France, during coronavirus national lockdown. Colored with testimonies from all generations of people, this film intends to present the new face of the daily life and the emotions born out of this period never before encountered in France, and in the world. COVID19 has changed lives and will change how we look at the world.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--Stanford study suggest infection rate is up to 85 times than official figures

A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought .
The study from Stanford University , which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed , tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated .
To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19 , health officials must first determine how many people have been infected .
Large studies of the prevalence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a key role , researchers say .
“ This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic , ” said Eran Bendavid , the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study .
“ It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.
” The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind in the US , researchers said .
The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus .
Volunteers for the study were recruited through Facebook ads , which researchers say were targeted to capture a representative sample of the county ’ s demographics and geography .

A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought.
The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.
To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”
The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind in the US, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus. Volunteers for the study were recruited through Facebook ads, which researchers say were targeted to capture a representative sample of the county’s demographics and geography.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--The fed bought 700 billion in treasure securities and 200 billion in MBS. How did that help to “stab

The fed bought 700 billion in treasure securities and 200 billion in MBS. How did that help to “stabilize” the market?

• banks do not have a lot of cash • banks cant give them cash , because banks have a @ @ @ @ @ can give cash to businesses in the form of loans .

by enginerd03
banks have a lot of treasuries banks do not have a lot of cash businesses need cash to operate banks cant give them cash, because banks have a lot of treasuries fed buys treasuries from banks, giving them cash. banks have cash banks can give cash to businesses in the form of loans.

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(its obviously more complex, but thats the watered down version of it)


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-18--And It’s (The SBA Loan Loot) Gone! Now The Small Business Firings Really Start

The Paycheck Protection Program or PPP was funded with $ 350 billion in the last stimulus bill , this money is now gone .
Of the thirty million small businesses in America , only 1.7 million received money from the 2.3 trillion dollar aid package passed to help sustain America during this difficult time .
If the government blew through this money and was only was able to help only around 5 % of small businesses it is difficult to think another 250 billion dollars will set things straight .
Clearly , because the government made promises it delayed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help .
The government has failed to keep its promise so now we should expect unemployment to soar as reality sets in .
One of the largest problems facing small companies is they are often underfunded and have difficulty getting financing at reasonable rates .
Banks find larger companies much more profitable .
The sector of the economy most damaged by the covid-19 shutdown is small business .
When this is over America will find many small businesses have been decimated and are not able to reopen .
Others will never recover and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Since small businesses employ over 54 million people in America and their importance in the economy should not be underestimated .
• • Small businesses contribute 44 percent of all sales in the country .
• Small businesses employ 54.4 million people , about 57.3percent of the private workforce .
Rest assured government employees and bureaucrats will still continue to get paid but small business , the most productive part of the economy has a knife to its throat .
As a landlord and small business owner , I can tell you the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be of little help to most small businesses .
The government slammed expensive legislation through with no idea of the damage they were doing and how it will cause hundreds of thousands of businesses to close their doors forever .
Washington has become so attuned to dealing with lobbyist from mega-companies it has lost sight of the fact small is small , and when this comes to business , this means usually under twenty employees , not hundreds .
government ’ s answer to keeping people employed was to promise small businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loan amount of two and a half times a company ’ s average monthly payroll expense over the past 12 months .
This loan would turn into a grant and be forgiven if a company did not fire its employees .
Sadly , legislators failed to take into consideration that not all small businesses are labor or payroll intense .
Some businesses with large or expensive showrooms are getting hammered by rent , others by inventory , or things like taxes , utilities , or even by having to toss products due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ address the issue of what these employees are going to do while the company has no customers and business barely trickling .
In the past , these employees were expected to pursue activities that earned revenue and garnered profits for the business but with no costumers , this is difficult to do .
The PPP also ignored the fact that by keeping these employees on the payroll a generous employer is left open to the harsh mandates laid out in the government ’ s previous bill .
The hastily drawn up 110-page federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fully supported dealt a hard blow to small business .
For a small business this is a disaster , the bill requires ; • Employers with fewer than 500 employees and government employers offer two weeks of paid sick leave through 2020 .
• Those same employers must now provide up to 3 months of paid family and medical leave for people forced to quarantine due to the virus or care for family because of the outbreak As expected , this measure , named “ Families First Coronavirus Response Act.
” resulted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs .
Ironically , it was held before the voters as proof lawmakers could work together during a crisis .
By framing the poorly crafted pork-packed bill this way promoters positioned themselves to demonize those unwilling to support it .
Remember , this bill is was in addition to the $ 8.3 billion emergency spending bill first approved to curb the spread of covid-19 .
As government has grown larger it seems to have become totally oblivious to the fragility of many small businesses and how much it can cost a community when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bills as bipartisan their promoters imply they are fair and balanced .
This is not true , small business is the big loser and hundreds of thousands will soon have to close .
With so many tenants looking at foregoing rent small landlords that don ’ t have deep pockets also face huge problems .
We have our heads in the sand if we think companies that exist on events where people gather will overnight regain their luster .
It is not like someone can simply flick a switch and things will return @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the “ V-shaped recovery ” theory and the idea after the economy has come to a dead stop it can quickly reboot and be back at full speed in a few months .
The government has presented us with an extension of crony capitalism structured to throw just enough to the masses to silence their outrage but in the coming weeks , we will see it failed .
Large businesses with access to cheap capital are the winners and the big losers are the middle-class , small businesses , and social mobility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher minimum wage can forget that ever happening if we don ’ t have jobs .
As for just how much small business owners make , according to figures from 2015 from the Small Business Administration the median income for self-employed individuals at an incorporated business was $ 49,804 and $ 22,424 for unincorporated firms .
According to PayScale ’ s 2017 data , the average small business owner ’ s income is $ 73,000 per year .
But , total earnings can range from $ 30,000 – $ 182,000 per year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ where and just how big the business is , however , it is important to remember these people have “ skin in the game ” and most risk losing everything if their business fails .
It is important to recognize that starting your own business has always been about the opportunity to design and build your own future .
It is a symbol of freedom not a guarantee of wealth .
Many people choose this path proudly , not to make more money but as a way to express their individuality .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job in government or at a large company often offers more security and benefits but far less freedom .
Do not underestimate the value of small business and what it contributes to our society .
Companies such as Amazon are the anti-thesis of small business making their workers a cog in a machine and stealing their soul .
Based on the government ’ s promise to small businesses a great many held off on letting employees go but with each passing day in order to survive they are now in the process of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is a ticking time-bomb .
By telling these businesses to close and then through its failure to carry out its promise of helping them the government has created a situation with massive negative economic ramifications .
To make matters worse , people going on unemployment look to get almost as much as those that do work .
Why will anyone want to work , especially government workers when they can get paid to stay home ?
This is not about wanting more money for small business , it is about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

via brucewilds
The Paycheck Protection Program or PPP was funded with $350 billion in the last stimulus bill, this money is now gone. Of the thirty million small businesses in America, only 1.7 million received money from the 2.3 trillion dollar aid package passed to help sustain America during this difficult time. If the government blew through this money and was only was able to help only around 5% of small businesses it is difficult to think another 250 billion dollars will set things straight. Clearly, because the government made promises it delayed the wave of firing while companies waited for help.
The government has failed to keep its promise so now we should expect unemployment to soar as reality sets in. One of the largest problems facing small companies is they are often underfunded and have difficulty getting financing at reasonable rates. Banks find larger companies much more profitable. The sector of the economy most damaged by the covid-19 shutdown is small business. When this is over America will find many small businesses have been decimated and are not able to reopen. Others will never recover and be forced to close within months. Since small businesses employ over 54 million people in America and their importance in the economy should not be underestimated.
Rest assured government employees and bureaucrats will still continue to get paid but small business, the most productive part of the economy has a knife to its throat. As a landlord and small business owner, I can tell you the program was structured in a way that will be of little help to most small businesses. The government slammed expensive legislation through with no idea of the damage they were doing and how it will cause hundreds of thousands of businesses to close their doors forever. Washington has become so attuned to dealing with lobbyist from mega-companies it has lost sight of the fact small is small, and when this comes to business, this means usually under twenty employees, not hundreds.
government’s answer to keeping people employed was to promise small businesses an easy to get, rapid maximum loan amount of two and a half times a company’s average monthly payroll expense over the past 12 months. This loan would turn into a grant and be forgiven if a company did not fire its employees. Sadly, legislators failed to take into consideration that not all small businesses are labor or payroll intense. Some businesses with large or expensive showrooms are getting hammered by rent, others by inventory, or things like taxes, utilities, or even by having to toss products due to spoilage. The The PPP also failed to address the issue of what these employees are going to do while the company has no customers and business barely trickling. In the past, these employees were expected to pursue activities that earned revenue and garnered profits for the business but with no costumers, this is difficult to do. The PPP also ignored the fact that by keeping these employees on the payroll a generous employer is left open to the harsh mandates laid out in the government’s previous bill. The hastily drawn up 110-page federal covid-19 economic rescue package, which Trump fully supported dealt a hard blow to small business. For a small business this is a disaster, the bill requires;
Employers with fewer than 500 employees and government employers offer two weeks of paid sick leave through 2020.
Those same employers must now provide up to 3 months of paid family and medical leave for people forced to quarantine due to the virus or care for family because of the outbreak We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us! As expected, this measure, named “Families First Coronavirus Response Act.” resulted in millions of workers to suddenly lose their jobs. Ironically, it was held before the voters as proof lawmakers could work together during a crisis. By framing the poorly crafted pork-packed bill this way promoters positioned themselves to demonize those unwilling to support it. Remember, this bill is was in addition to the $8.3 billion emergency spending bill first approved to curb the spread of covid-19.
As government has grown larger it seems to have become totally oblivious to the fragility of many small businesses and how much it can cost a community when they close. By framing these pork-packed bills as bipartisan their promoters imply they are fair and balanced. This is not true, small business is the big loser and hundreds of thousands will soon have to close. With so many tenants looking at foregoing rent small landlords that don’t have deep pockets also face huge problems. We have our heads in the sand if we think companies that exist on events where people gather will overnight regain their luster. It is not like someone can simply flick a switch and things will return to normal.
Reality undercuts the idea of the “V-shaped recovery” theory and the idea after the economy has come to a dead stop it can quickly reboot and be back at full speed in a few months. The government has presented us with an extension of crony capitalism structured to throw just enough to the masses to silence their outrage but in the coming weeks, we will see it failed. Large businesses with access to cheap capital are the winners and the big losers are the middle-class, small businesses, and social mobility. All those people that want a higher minimum wage can forget that ever happening if we don’t have jobs.
As for just how much small business owners make, according to figures from 2015 from the Small Business Administration the median income for self-employed individuals at an incorporated business was $49,804 and $22,424 for unincorporated firms. According to PayScale’s 2017 data, the average small business owner’s income is $73,000 per year. But, total earnings can range from $30,000 – $182,000 per year. This means it varies greatly depending on where and just how big the business is, however, it is important to remember these people have “skin in the game” and most risk losing everything if their business fails.
It is important to recognize that starting your own business has always been about the opportunity to design and build your own future. It is a symbol of freedom not a guarantee of wealth. Many people choose this path proudly, not to make more money but as a way to express their individuality. For these competent and talented people, a job in government or at a large company often offers more security and benefits but far less freedom. Do not underestimate the value of small business and what it contributes to our society. Companies such as Amazon are the anti-thesis of small business making their workers a cog in a machine and stealing their soul.
Based on the government’s promise to small businesses a great many held off on letting employees go but with each passing day in order to survive they are now in the process of letting hundreds of thousands of employees go. This is a ticking time-bomb. By telling these businesses to close and then through its failure to carry out its promise of helping them the government has created a situation with massive negative economic ramifications. To make matters worse, people going on unemployment look to get almost as much as those that do work. Why will anyone want to work, especially government workers when they can get paid to stay home? This is not about wanting more money for small business, it is about the reality that the firings are just beginning.