investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--4 Years Have Passed Since Nancy Pelosi Went To China… She’s Not Speaking For You – How Much Do The P

4 Years Have Passed Since Nancy Pelosi Went To China… She’s Not Speaking For You – How Much Do The Pelosi’s Have Invested In China

Pelosi , Congressional Delegation Conclude Visit to China and Tibet.. “ In Beijing , the delegation met with the Premier of the People ’ s Republic of China , Li Keqiang ; National People ’ s Congress Chairman , Zhang Dejiang ; and National People ’ s Congress Vice Chairman , Zhang Ping .
“ The delegation and Chinese officials discussed the importance of building upon President Obama and President Xi ’ s agreements on climate change , protection of cyber space and countering the proliferation of nuclear weapons .
Ok..ok..still have not found how much this cost.. She ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Much Do The Pelosi ’ s Have Invested In China ?
In 2014 Paul Pelosi invested in a company called SunEdison solar energy .
Shortly thereafter with the assistance of his wife , SunEdison received $ 1 billion in federal subsidies .
There is something else at work here , however .
Paul Pelosi does not just buy and sell commercial real estate .
He doesn ’ t just cash in on his wife ’ s influence and privileged status .
He invests , and much of that investment is in Asia generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long condemned the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to foreign countries by American corporations .
But the Pelosi ’ s investment portfolio contains no investments in any domestic manufacturing companies .
Pelosi ’ s Husband Invested in Solar Firm Weeks Before Lucrative Expansion APR 19 , 2016 11:15 AM House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi ’ s husband bought up to a quarter million dollars of stock in a now financially troubled green energy company just weeks before it announced a major 2014 acquisition that sent stock prices soaring , public records show .
SunEdison @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eyeing bankruptcy under the weight of $ 11.7 million in debt .
But in late 2014 , investors were bullish on the company , which manufactures and operates solar and wind power facilities .
Its 2014 purchase of wind energy company First Wind “ further bolstered the reputation of the company , ” wrote one market-watcher at the time .
“ Perhaps unsurprisingly , SunEdison ’ s stock soared an astounding 29 % on news of this acquisition alone.
” Pelosi ’ s husband , Paul Pelosi , had invested just in time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 250,000 in SunEdison stock on Oct. 24 , 2014 , according to congressional financial disclosures .
The company announced its First Wind acquisition on Nov. 17 .
Pelosi ’ s office did not respond to questions about the timing of the purchase STUNNING : Pelosi Blocks Investigation of China and Origins of Wuhan Virus — Puts All Resources into Another Hoax Investigation of Donald Trump .
Nancy Pelosi is not interested with finding the origins of the Wuhan virus that is decimating the US economy and has killed 60,000 elderly and sickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spend her resources on another hoax investigation of President Donald Trump .
Rep .
Guy Reschenthaler ( R-PA ) told Breitbart News this weekend that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would rather investigate President Donald Trump again than focus on the actual origins of the Chinese coronavirus and U.S. tax dollars that went to the Wuhan Institute of Virology from which intelligence officials increasingly believe the virus leaked .
Appearing on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel , Reschenthaler discussed his efforts to investigate tax dollars that flowed through a New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He said that Pelosi and House Democrats are not interested in holding the Chinese Communist Party accountable and , instead , want to focus their oversight efforts on politically harming President Trump again just like they tried and failed with the partisan impeachment last year and earlier this year .

Pelosi, Congressional Delegation Conclude Visit to China and Tibet..
“In Beijing, the delegation met with the Premier of the People’s Republic of China, Li Keqiang; National People’s Congress Chairman, Zhang Dejiang; and National People’s Congress Vice Chairman, Zhang Ping.
“The delegation and Chinese officials discussed the importance of building upon President Obama and President Xi’s agreements on climate change, protection of cyber space and countering the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
www.speaker.gov/newsroom/22696
Ok..ok..still have not found how much this cost..
She’s Not Speaking For You – How Much Do The Pelosi’s Have Invested In China?
andmagazine.com/talk/2020/04/16/shes-not-speaking-for-you-how-much-do-the-pelosis-have-invested-in-china/
Here it is…solar investments uncovered
In 2014 Paul Pelosi invested in a company called SunEdison solar energy. Shortly thereafter with the assistance of his wife, SunEdison received $1 billion in federal subsidies.
There is something else at work here, however. Paul Pelosi does not just buy and sell commercial real estate. He doesn’t just cash in on his wife’s influence and privileged status. He invests, and much of that investment is in Asia generally and China specifically.
Nancy Pelosi has long condemned the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to foreign countries by American corporations. But the Pelosi’s investment portfolio contains no investments in any domestic manufacturing companies.
Pelosi’s Husband Invested in Solar Firm Weeks Before Lucrative Expansion
APR 19, 2016 11:15 AM
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s husband bought up to a quarter million dollars of stock in a now financially troubled green energy company just weeks before it announced a major 2014 acquisition that sent stock prices soaring, public records show.
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SunEdison told regulators last week that it is eyeing bankruptcy under the weight of $11.7 million in debt. But in late 2014, investors were bullish on the company, which manufactures and operates solar and wind power facilities.
Its 2014 purchase of wind energy company First Wind “further bolstered the reputation of the company,” wrote one market-watcher at the time. “Perhaps unsurprisingly, SunEdison’s stock soared an astounding 29% on news of this acquisition alone.”
Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, had invested just in time. He bought between $100,000 and $250,000 in SunEdison stock on Oct. 24, 2014, according to congressional financial disclosures. The company announced its First Wind acquisition on Nov. 17.
Pelosi’s office did not respond to questions about the timing of the purchase
freebeacon.com/issues/pelosis-husband-invested-solar-firm-weeks-lucrative-expansion/amp/
STUNNING: Pelosi Blocks Investigation of China and Origins of Wuhan Virus — Puts All Resources into Another Hoax Investigation of Donald Trump .
Nancy Pelosi is not interested with finding the origins of the Wuhan virus that is decimating the US economy and has killed 60,000 elderly and sickly Americans.
Instead, Pelosi wants to spend her resources on another hoax investigation of President Donald Trump.
The woman is pure evil.
Via Breitbart.com.
Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA) told Breitbart News this weekend that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would rather investigate President Donald Trump again than focus on the actual origins of the Chinese coronavirus and U.S. tax dollars that went to the Wuhan Institute of Virology from which intelligence officials increasingly believe the virus leaked. Appearing on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel, Reschenthaler discussed his efforts to investigate tax dollars that flowed through a New York firm to the Wuhan lab. He said that Pelosi and House Democrats are not interested in holding the Chinese Communist Party accountable and, instead, want to focus their oversight efforts on politically harming President Trump again just like they tried and failed with the partisan impeachment last year and earlier this year.
www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/stunning-pelosi-blocks-investigation-china-origins-wuhan-virus-puts-resources-another-hoax-investigation-donald-trump/
h/t Goneviral


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--USA to borrow record $3 trillion this quarter…  California First State to Take Loan for Unemployment

USA to borrow record $3 trillion this quarter…  California First State to Take Loan for Unemployment Payments

US Treasury seeks to borrow a record $ 3 trillion this quarter • The Treasury Deparment announced Monday it is borrowing about $ 3 trillion this quarter .
• The money is being used in large part to subsidize economic rescue efforts in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic .
• Total U.S. government debt now is near $ 25 trillion , with the current fiscal year ’ s deficit running at $ 744 billion California Is First State to Borrow From Federal Government to Make Unemployment Payments California has become the first state to borrow money from the federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rising claims for unemployment benefits during the coronavirus pandemic .
The Golden State borrowed $ 348 million in federal funds after receiving approval to tap up to $ 10 billion for this purpose through the end of July , a Treasury Department spokesman said Monday .
The U.S. government has also approved loans of up to $ 12.6 billion for Illinois and up to $ 1.1 billion for Connecticut through the end of July to replenish state unemployment insurance funds , though the two states hadn ’ t yet started borrowing by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only state to have accessed the program so far in the current downturn , the Treasury spokesman said .
States can use the money to pay regular unemployment benefits , while the extra $ 600 payments recently added for workers laid off during the pandemic are funded separately through federal emergency legislation signed into law in late March .
More than 30 million people have filed unemployment claims , including about 3.7 million in California , since mid-March , when the virus led to widespread business shutdowns .
California had about $ 1.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mid-April , down from $ 3.1 billion at the end of February , the month before the coronavirus upended the U.S. economy .
The state ’ s labor department didn ’ t immediately respond to a request for comment .

US Treasury seeks to borrow a record $3 trillion this quarter
The Treasury Deparment announced Monday it is borrowing about $3 trillion this quarter.
The money is being used in large part to subsidize economic rescue efforts in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
Total U.S. government debt now is near $25 trillion, with the current fiscal year’s deficit running at $744 billion
California Is First State to Borrow From Federal Government to Make Unemployment Payments
California has become the first state to borrow money from the federal government so it can continue paying out rising claims for unemployment benefits during the coronavirus pandemic.
The Golden State borrowed $348 million in federal funds after receiving approval to tap up to $10 billion for this purpose through the end of July, a Treasury Department spokesman said Monday.
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The U.S. government has also approved loans of up to $12.6 billion for Illinois and up to $1.1 billion for Connecticut through the end of July to replenish state unemployment insurance funds, though the two states hadn’t yet started borrowing by the end of April. California was the only state to have accessed the program so far in the current downturn, the Treasury spokesman said. States can use the money to pay regular unemployment benefits, while the extra $600 payments recently added for workers laid off during the pandemic are funded separately through federal emergency legislation signed into law in late March. More than 30 million people have filed unemployment claims, including about 3.7 million in California, since mid-March, when the virus led to widespread business shutdowns. California had about $1.9 billion in its unemployment trust fund in mid-April, down from $3.1 billion at the end of February, the month before the coronavirus upended the U.S. economy. The state’s labor department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Coronavirus death toll tops QUARTER MILLION worldwide as cases exceed 3.5million

The total number of Covid-19 fatalities has surpassed 250,000 , marking yet another dark milestone for the pandemic ’ s @ @ @ @ @ around the world continue to surge past 3.5 million .
The fatality count hit 250,687 @ @ @ @ @ some 3,200 deaths in the last 24 hours , while nearly 67,000 new infections were @ @ @ @ @ , bringing the global total to 3,573,864 , according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins @ @ @ @ @ – still the top Covid-19 hot spot – and Europe drove the surge in new @ @ @ @ @ US accounted for fewer than 1,000 of the new fatalities , adding 760 between Sunday @ @ @ @ @ data showed , while the bulk of the rest occurred in Europe , where outbreaks @ @ @ @ @ 100,000 people in at least seven nations – some , like Italy and Spain , @ @ @ @ @ total , the US has counted 68,442 deaths .

The total number of Covid-19 fatalities has surpassed 250,000, marking yet another dark milestone for the pandemic’s global death toll as cases around the world continue to surge past 3.5 million.
The fatality count hit 250,687 on Monday, increasing by some 3,200 deaths in the last 24 hours, while nearly 67,000 new infections were counted in the same period, bringing the global total to 3,573,864, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University. The United States – still the top Covid-19 hot spot – and Europe drove the surge in new cases and deaths.
The US accounted for fewer than 1,000 of the new fatalities, adding 760 between Sunday and Monday evening, the data showed, while the bulk of the rest occurred in Europe, where outbreaks have infected in excess of 100,000 people in at least seven nations – some, like Italy and Spain, crossing 200,000 cases. In total, the US has counted 68,442 deaths.
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www.rt.com/news/487769-coronavirus-death-toll-quarter-million/


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--U.S. Economic Data Now Worse Than During GFC.

Coronavirus Will Shrink Us Home Prices but Deeper Dive Could Be in Store Home prices have only fallen nationally once since the Great Depression , and that was after the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession .
Now , barely eight years after hitting bottom , and after a mighty recovery , prices are predicted to fall nationally again , down 2-3 % this year , according to Zillow .
Small Businesses , That Couldn ’ t Get PPP Loans , have few months To Survive “ Just 13 % of the 45 % who applied for a PPP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t Save a Fragile Economy With Bailouts That Increase Fragility By bailing out the sources of systemic fragility with trillions of dollars , the Fed has shifted the risk to the entire financial system and the nation ’ s currency .
Mend the Disconnect Between Wall Street and Main Street Just a few weeks into the coronavirus crisis , many are already pointing to the striking contrast between what has happened to the real economy and financial markets .
This Main Street versus Wall Street tension is fueled both by legacy and current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GE Aviation Unit – To make ‘ Permanent ’ Job Cuts up to 13,000

I can’t even begin to imagine all this. pic.twitter.com/X9a6XJCGqs — Gratke Wealth, LLC (@GratkeWealth) May 4, 2020
INVESTORS HAVE NO FEAR OF BANKRUPTCY ANYMORE
DUE TO THE FED THIS WAS REPORTED ALL LAST WEEK
AND THIS POS STOCK IS STILL ABOVE $3 INCREDIBLE 🤔@DiMartinoBooth @GaryKaltbaum @OpenOutcrier t.co/OrcQE3dgl4 — Reminiscences of an American Capitalist (@4Awesometweet) May 4, 2020
CALIFORNIA TAKES OUT $348 MILLION FEDERAL LOAN FOR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS – DJ — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) May 4, 2020
U.S. Economic Data Now Worse Than During GFC. pic.twitter.com/RxNNZUBfFM — Ben Rickert (@Ben__Rickert) May 4, 2020
Even the best economic signals looks weak. Everything else is much worse t.co/07quoTgVIo via @business — Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) May 4, 2020
Home prices have only fallen nationally once since the Great Depression, and that was after the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession. Now, barely eight years after hitting bottom, and after a mighty recovery, prices are predicted to fall nationally again, down 2-3% this year, according to Zillow.
“Just 13% of the 45% who applied for a PPP loan were approved…”
By bailing out the sources of systemic fragility with trillions of dollars, the Fed has shifted the risk to the entire financial system and the nation’s currency.
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Just a few weeks into the coronavirus crisis, many are already pointing to the striking contrast between what has happened to the real economy and financial markets. This Main Street versus Wall Street tension is fueled both by legacy and current issues and sheds light on the state…
The S&P 500 was up more than 0.4% on Monday. But… On the NYSE, there were more declining than advancing stocks. More down volume than up volume. More 52-week lows than highs. That's happened 21 times since 1965. A month later, the S&P was higher 7 times. — SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) May 4, 2020
GE Aviation Unit – To make ‘Permanent’ Job Cuts up to 13,000


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--As Goes Buffett, So Goes the Market? with Nick Santiago

For more than 20 years , Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets .
He ’ s made some incredible calls along the way and now he ’ s looking to spread the word .
There ’ s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short .
So now we ’ ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments .
Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends .
Today we discuss : 1 .
Warren Buffett is in the news today after annual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the four largest U.S. airline carriers .
I ’ ve never seen him sell out of a sector at the lows .
I know he is good friends with Bill Gates , so maybe he is just trying to help his buddy accomplish his goal of the next Great Depression .
He used to buy into markets in the past .
In 2008 , he was buying everything that he knew would be bailed out by the government , this time around nothing .
I hate to say it , but its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the economy to open up .
We are seeing this all over the country now .
There are protests even popping up everywhere .
There are even businesses that are called non-essential that are starting to open up .
people are loosing patients now .
According to Apple ’ s iPhone tracking driving has doubled in the past 3 weeks .
3 .
More corporate earnings will be pouring in this week .
Very interesting week for earnings .
Large caps , not trillion dollar babies like Amazon .
This will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have past , but we are going to hear from a lot of other companies now that are not worth $ 1 trillion or more .
This week we ’ ll get a lot of companies providing parts to Apple for iPhones .
200+ companies per day reports earnings .
So far it ’ s been sell in May and go away but Nick believes that we ’ ll still have another pop .
It ’ s not always true .
This time around perhaps not .
4 .
Gold/Silver is continuing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upcoming jump .
For more info , go to www.InTheMoneyStocks.com .
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

from Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago
For more than 20 years, Master Trader Nick Santiago has been beating the markets. He’s made some incredible calls along the way and now he’s looking to spread the word. There’s no reason that the average trader should be coming up short. So now we’ve started a daily show to bring you up to date on the latest market developments. Nick will be sharing trades and concepts and discussing current trends. Today we discuss:
1. Warren Buffett is in the news today after annual shareholder meeting. He sold his stakes in the four largest U.S. airline carriers. I’ve never seen him sell out of a sector at the lows. I know he is good friends with Bill Gates, so maybe he is just trying to help his buddy accomplish his goal of the next Great Depression. He used to buy into markets in the past. In 2008, he was buying everything that he knew would be bailed out by the government, this time around nothing. I hate to say it, but its politics.
2. People are ready for the economy to open up. We are seeing this all over the country now. There are protests even popping up everywhere. There are even businesses that are called non-essential that are starting to open up. people are loosing patients now. According to Apple’s iPhone tracking driving has doubled in the past 3 weeks.
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3. More corporate earnings will be pouring in this week. Very interesting week for earnings. Large caps, not trillion dollar babies like Amazon. This will be very telling. The sexy tech names have past , but we are going to hear from a lot of other companies now that are not worth $1 trillion or more. This week we’ll get a lot of companies providing parts to Apple for iPhones. 200+ companies per day reports earnings. So far it’s been sell in May and go away but Nick believes that we’ll still have another pop. It’s not always true. This time around perhaps not.
4. Gold/Silver is continuing the bullish pattern. Get ready for the upcoming jump.
For more info, go to www.InTheMoneyStocks.com.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Market to Turn its Attention back to the Economy

In my last article , I believed that the market would anticipate a flattening of the curve for Covid19 coupled with massive Federal Reserve and fiscal stimulus .
These two combined phenomena led to a violent rally in a very short amount of time .
Furthermore , investor sentiment had reached extremely bearish levels leading to “ washout ” price action in the later part of March .
Presently , I believe the market will turn its attention to what the economy is actually doing and even the most optimistic of investors will admit that it will be sometime before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were pre Covid19 .
The most likely path over the next several weeks is a downtrend toward the March lows , although I believe the probability is fairly high that we will NOT break the lows .
The worst of Coronavirus is largely behind us and the Federal Reserve has made it very clear that they will do whatever it takes to keep liquidity flowing through the markets .
I am advising investors to take advantage of this rally to raise cash and wait for better opportunities ahead .
At GlassBead , my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late last week .
I will provide another update once I feel the next leg down is complete .

In my last article, I believed that the market would anticipate a flattening of the curve for Covid19 coupled with massive Federal Reserve and fiscal stimulus. These two combined phenomena led to a violent rally in a very short amount of time. Furthermore, investor sentiment had reached extremely bearish levels leading to “washout” price action in the later part of March. Presently, I believe the market will turn its attention to what the economy is actually doing and even the most optimistic of investors will admit that it will be sometime before economic activity gets anywhere near where we were pre Covid19.
The most likely path over the next several weeks is a downtrend toward the March lows, although I believe the probability is fairly high that we will NOT break the lows. The worst of Coronavirus is largely behind us and the Federal Reserve has made it very clear that they will do whatever it takes to keep liquidity flowing through the markets.
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I am advising investors to take advantage of this rally to raise cash and wait for better opportunities ahead. At GlassBead, my investment firm, we were aggressive sellers late last week.
I will provide another update once I feel the next leg down is complete.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Mayor Lori Lightfoot Warns Stay-At-Home Violators: ‘We Will Take You To Jail, Period!’

From the mayor who violated her own social distancing rules in order to get HER hair cut .
After all @ @ @ @ @ the public eye so she be special .
She states that if you violate the @ @ @ @ @ will be taken to jail .
PERIOD .
I ’ m curious as to which @ @ @ @ @ cite if you violate a stay at home ORDER .
Meanwhile in Chiraq : “ @ @ @ @ @ in Chicago weekend shootings so far ” Seems the REAL criminals in Chiraq and Illinois @ @ @ @ @ free pass .
Welcome to the new America under the Wuhan virus tyranny .

by DCG
From the mayor who violated her own social distancing rules in order to get HER hair cut. After all, SHE’S in the public eye so she be special.
She states that if you violate the “law,” you will be taken to jail. PERIOD.
I’m curious as to which LAW the good mayor will cite if you violate a stay at home ORDER.
Meanwhile in Chiraq: “4 dead, 30 hurt in Chicago weekend shootings so far”
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And this: “Illinois releases 146 sex offenders, including 3 sexually dangerous persons”
Seems the REAL criminals in Chiraq and Illinois are the ones getting a free pass.
Welcome to the new America under the Wuhan virus tyranny.
DCG


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--The Federal Reserve: More Lethal than Coronavirus

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it will keep interest rates at or near zero until the economy recovers from the government-imposed shutdown .
Following this announcement , Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell urged Congress and the Trump administration to put aside any concerns about the deficit and spend whatever it takes to stimulate the economy and combat coronavirus .
The Federal Reserve previously announced it would make unlimited purchases of Treasury securities , thus encouraging Congress and the president to increase spending and debt .
With some members of Congress talking about another multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bill , and with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infrastructure plan as a way to get Americans back to work , it is obvious , and not surprising , that Congress and President Trump gleefully agree with Powell ’ s advice .
Increasing the purchase of federal debt is not the only action the Fed has taken in a desperate attempt to keep the economy afloat .
Since the coronavirus lockdowns began in early March , the Fed has greatly expanded its balance sheet .
The Federal Reserve has also launched an unprecedented program to “ loan ” money directly to businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end the lockdowns , it may be months or even another year before all the lockdowns are finally ended .
It is unlikely that the economy will completely recover after the shutdown ends .
The economy was teetering on the brink of a recession months before anyone heard of coronavirus .
Last September , a panicked Fed began emergency infusions of cash into the repurchasing market , which is where banks make short-term loans to each other .
The Fed ’ s balance sheet expansion also began in September .
The Fed was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus panic , and it will likely keep rates at or even below zero long after the crisis related to the shutdown subsides .
Economic stagnation combined with zero or negative interest rates remove incentive for people to save .
This depletes the supply of private capital available to invest in businesses and jobs .
The lack of private capital will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain , and even expand , its new lending programs indefinitely .
Each of the Federal Reserve ’ s responses to the coronavirus shutdown increases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Federal Reserve ’ s meddling with the money supply and interest rates .
These increased distortions guarantee the inevitable crash will be much more severe than the current downturn .
The one upside is that the next meltdown will likely lead to the end of the fiat money system and thus the end of the welfare-warfare state .
The only way to minimize the coming crisis is to begin immediately unwinding the current system .
The first step is to end the lockdown and let businesses reopen and people go back to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monetary policy by passing the Audit the Fed bill .
Congress should also cut spending , starting with ending our hyper-interventionist foreign policy and bringing the troops home .
Ending the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system may cause some short-term pain , but that pain will be dwarfed by the long-term gains in liberty , peace , and prosperity .

by Ron Paul
Last week the Federal Reserve announced it will keep interest rates at or near zero until the economy recovers from the government-imposed shutdown. Following this announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell urged Congress and the Trump administration to put aside any concerns about the deficit and spend whatever it takes to stimulate the economy and combat coronavirus.
The Federal Reserve previously announced it would make unlimited purchases of Treasury securities, thus encouraging Congress and the president to increase spending and debt. With some members of Congress talking about another multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bill, and with President Trump proposing a two trillion dollars infrastructure plan as a way to get Americans back to work, it is obvious, and not surprising, that Congress and President Trump gleefully agree with Powell’s advice.
Increasing the purchase of federal debt is not the only action the Fed has taken in a desperate attempt to keep the economy afloat. Since the coronavirus lockdowns began in early March, the Fed has greatly expanded its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve has also launched an unprecedented program to “loan” money directly to businesses.
While some states are beginning to end the lockdowns, it may be months or even another year before all the lockdowns are finally ended. It is unlikely that the economy will completely recover after the shutdown ends.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The economy was teetering on the brink of a recession months before anyone heard of coronavirus. Last September, a panicked Fed began emergency infusions of cash into the repurchasing market, which is where banks make short-term loans to each other. The Fed’s balance sheet expansion also began in September. The Fed was also pushing interest rates down before the coronavirus panic, and it will likely keep rates at or even below zero long after the crisis related to the shutdown subsides.
Economic stagnation combined with zero or negative interest rates remove incentive for people to save. This depletes the supply of private capital available to invest in businesses and jobs. The lack of private capital will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain, and even expand, its new lending programs indefinitely.
Each of the Federal Reserve’s responses to the coronavirus shutdown increases the distortions of the market caused by the Federal Reserve’s meddling with the money supply and interest rates. These increased distortions guarantee the inevitable crash will be much more severe than the current downturn. The one upside is that the next meltdown will likely lead to the end of the fiat money system and thus the end of the welfare-warfare state.
The only way to minimize the coming crisis is to begin immediately unwinding the current system. The first step is to end the lockdown and let businesses reopen and people go back to work. Congress must then begin challenging monetary policy by passing the Audit the Fed bill. Congress should also cut spending, starting with ending our hyper-interventionist foreign policy and bringing the troops home. Ending the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system may cause some short-term pain, but that pain will be dwarfed by the long-term gains in liberty, peace, and prosperity.


Why Lockdowns Work

There was another comment at the Automatic Earth yesterday questioning the function and wisdom of various lockdowns .
I thought I ’ d explain this in more detail .
Ilargi if you or anyone else could explain what the exit strategy is from a lockdown I ’ d be interested in hearing it .
As it is , this lockdown I repeat is no different than financial QE – everyone comes out weaker than they were before treatment .
Financial QE covers up her problem just like lockdown does , but makes it worse in the long run .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keep lockdown until a vaccine or effective treatment , neither of which are on the horizon .
If you are arguing that even healthy economies can survive indefinite closure , with intermittent re-openings I don ’ t know what to tell you .
The suggestion is made that Sweden has a huge vested interest in understating fatalities .
It is also certainly true that the rest of the world has an even greater vested interest in criticizing the Swedish approach because it demonstrates how useless the total lockdowns are .
BTW the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rest of Scandinavia are not statistically significant .
Playing with numbers and not understanding how things may not be as they seem .
First , let ’ s re-establish that no lockdown would have been needed if and when politicians and scientists had done what ’ s in their job descriptions .
That does not mean that no lockdown was called for once they did fail .
Indeed , it ’ s the failure to act at the very beginning , say January 31 , when the WHO sent out its first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I don ’ t say that to exonerate the WHO in any way , because it subsequently , for weeks on end , kowtowed to China ’ s refusal to allow its teams entry into the country , and followed that up by waiting and hesitating another full 6 ( ! )
weeks , until March 11 , to declare a pandemic .
Second , a lockdown and the way it ’ s executed are not the same thing .
The decisions to lock down their societies may be the only thing ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gotten right , but they still did get it right .
And sorry , but you can not use their ginormous failures made both before and during the lockdowns , to argue that the lockdowns themselves are a failure .
These are separate issues , don ’ t let ’ s get them mixed up .
Lockdowns in and of themselves , when properly executed , can not NOT work , simply because of the way viruses spread .
Yes , we need to know exactly how they do , but not knowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why we need a lockdown , why we need to keep people , who are all potential hosts AND spreaders , away from each other .
Until we know precisely how the virus spreads and/or until we know that the people involved are not virus carriers .
Terms such as “ indefinite closure ” don ’ t come from me , so please have the courtesy not to suggest I want one .
Questioning the principle of a lockdown is not terribly helpful or smart , and neither is suggesting that Sweden is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions and suggestions , if you follow their “ logic ” , seek to deny the very way viruses spread , if not the existence of a virus in the first place .
Which is one of the few things we do know about COVID19 : we know it exists and we know it spreads .
We may get distances – between people- and timing – of various stages of infection- wrong , but the principle stands .
The lockdown is useful , make that inevitable , because it prevents further spread of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another .
Our ancestors understood this well before they even knew what viruses were , and I don ’ t understand why we would today no longer possess that wisdom .
The knowledge we have gained since times of old also allows us to understand that if a virus can not spread to a new host for an x amount of time , it will die off .
Which may sound a tad curious because science does not consider viruses to be microbes or “ living organisms ” , but that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , the NOT spreading will have to happen in as many instances as you have potential hosts , i.e .
infected people , to make it work at a societal level , obviously .
And that ’ s why lockdowns are inevitable : it ’ s all about numbers .
The “ good news ” is that the very reason lockdowns are useful already signifies that lockdowns don ’ t have to last until there is a “ vaccine or effective treatment ” ; no “ indefinite closure ” is needed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ eradicate a virus to inhibit it from jumping from host to host ; you can also put distance and other barriers between ( potential ) hosts .
And there ’ s more good “ news ” .
I think it was Nassim Taleb who said a while back that the answer to people saying a lockdown is a bad thing because it also isolates healthy people is : we need a lockdown precisely because we don ’ t know who is healthy or not .
If we do know who is healthy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lockdown .
Ergo : testing , testing , testing .
Certainly in the beginning , we must test people every 24 hours or so , test them for the virus .
test them for antibodies , improve our tests , add more tests , test still more , we can all fill in the rest .
And no , that is not an indefinite thing either .
Testing will tell us to a much higher degree than we know today , when and where to distance people from each other .
Someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for days or weeks on end can be treated differently from someone who has not .
And such a person will be , certainly initially , more careful in interacting with people .
Take it from there , and you will in the end actually be rid of the virus , because it will not find enough new potential hosts .
That also means you don ’ t absolutely need a vaccine .
Which is a good thing , because no coronavirus vaccine has ever been “ discovered ” , and because we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Whenever I hear grand theories about grand bad plans elites or whoever are supposed to have with the virus , I first think : what would the virus need to propagate ?
And I always come back to the same answer : it only needs our continuing incompetence : other than lockdowns and face masks , we have given it all the space and opportunity it has needed .
It doesn ’ t need any help from 5G radiation or glyphosate ( though both should be subject ( ed ) to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come up with in the extra time their lockdown allows for .
All it needs is for us to continue doing what we have : not test .
And opening up our societies again without mass testing , of course , will be the biggest gift we can offer it .
This doesn ’ t mean I deny the possible existence of some plan , or that I want to claim to have knowledge of where the virus originated .
It only means that from where I ’ m sitting , the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do what it has done so far , not that it may or may not have gotten any .
Still , door A is factual , and door B is purely hypothetical .
And we don ’ t have seas of time to debate this , we have lives to save .
It ’ s early May , and there no longer are any excuses for anyone in the western world not wearing face coverings in public , and neither are there excuses for countries lacking the capacity to test their citizens appropriately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are nowhere near that capacity .
That is inexcusable .
Social distancing is not .
What shuts down societies today is not the virus , not the lockdowns , but the failure to adhere to basic principles with which to approach all potentially epidemic microbes or viruses .
The failure to be properly prepared -at all times- , because some thirteen-a-dozen politician elected in a popularity contest considers it too expensive , or too much work .
Even if warnings about a next epidemic had been sounded for many years .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looks for a vaccine .
Good thing we don ’ t have to wait for the latter , because , yes , that would risk an indefinite closure .
Testing will get us out once our “ leaders ” resolve to make it a priority .
They should all be voted out of office for not having done that yet , and take their scientific advisers with them .
And that ’ s after we may or may not forgive them for their initial failures .
We may need to overhaul a whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such perfectly preventable failures happen ever again .
But you know how people are .
And anyway , we ’ re in a bit of a bind at the moment .
It ’ s been 125 days since that first WHO warning , and there are still even many rich countries that can ’ t manage to test their medical and care workers , let alone the rest of their people .
And you want to argue that the problem here is lockdowns ?

by Raúl Ilargi Meijer
Steve Schapiro Muhammad Ali (Cassius Clay) with mini gloves, Louisville, KY 1963
There was another comment at the Automatic Earth yesterday questioning the function and wisdom of various lockdowns. I thought I’d explain this in more detail.
Ilargi if you or anyone else could explain what the exit strategy is from a lockdown I’d be interested in hearing it. As it is, this lockdown I repeat is no different than financial QE – everyone comes out weaker than they were before treatment. Financial QE covers up her problem just like lockdown does, but makes it worse in the long run. The only exit strategy I can see is to keep lockdown until a vaccine or effective treatment, neither of which are on the horizon.
If you are arguing that even healthy economies can survive indefinite closure, with intermittent re-openings I don’t know what to tell you. The suggestion is made that Sweden has a huge vested interest in understating fatalities. It is also certainly true that the rest of the world has an even greater vested interest in criticizing the Swedish approach because it demonstrates how useless the total lockdowns are. BTW the reported differences in fatalities between Sweden and the rest of Scandinavia are not statistically significant. Playing with numbers and not understanding how things may not be as they seem.
First, let’s re-establish that no lockdown would have been needed if and when politicians and scientists had done what’s in their job descriptions. That does not mean that no lockdown was called for once they did fail. Indeed, it’s the failure to act at the very beginning, say January 31, when the WHO sent out its first warning, that made lockdowns inevitable.
I don’t say that to exonerate the WHO in any way, because it subsequently, for weeks on end, kowtowed to China’s refusal to allow its teams entry into the country, and followed that up by waiting and hesitating another full 6(!) weeks, until March 11, to declare a pandemic.
Second, a lockdown and the way it’s executed are not the same thing. The decisions to lock down their societies may be the only thing(s) the Little Manager politicians have gotten right, but they still did get it right. And sorry, but you cannot use their ginormous failures made both before and during the lockdowns, to argue that the lockdowns themselves are a failure. These are separate issues, don’t let’s get them mixed up.
Lockdowns in and of themselves, when properly executed, cannot NOT work, simply because of the way viruses spread. Yes, we need to know exactly how they do, but not knowing this in the present case is exactly why we need a lockdown, why we need to keep people, who are all potential hosts AND spreaders, away from each other. Until we know precisely how the virus spreads and/or until we know that the people involved are not virus carriers.
Terms such as “indefinite closure” don’t come from me, so please have the courtesy not to suggest I want one. Questioning the principle of a lockdown is not terribly helpful or smart, and neither is suggesting that Sweden is doing well. If only because such questions and suggestions, if you follow their “logic”, seek to deny the very way viruses spread, if not the existence of a virus in the first place.
Which is one of the few things we do know about COVID19: we know it exists and we know it spreads. We may get distances – between people- and timing – of various stages of infection- wrong, but the principle stands.
The lockdown is useful, make that inevitable, because it prevents further spread of a deadly virus from one host to another. Our ancestors understood this well before they even knew what viruses were, and I don’t understand why we would today no longer possess that wisdom.
The knowledge we have gained since times of old also allows us to understand that if a virus cannot spread to a new host for an x amount of time, it will die off. Which may sound a tad curious because science does not consider viruses to be microbes or “living organisms”, but that’s not really the issue at hand.
However, the NOT spreading will have to happen in as many instances as you have potential hosts, i.e. infected people, to make it work at a societal level, obviously. And that’s why lockdowns are inevitable: it’s all about numbers.
The “good news” is that the very reason lockdowns are useful already signifies that lockdowns don’t have to last until there is a “vaccine or effective treatment”; no “indefinite closure” is needed. You don’t necessarily have to eradicate a virus to inhibit it from jumping from host to host; you can also put distance and other barriers between (potential) hosts.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And there’s more good “news”. I think it was Nassim Taleb who said a while back that the answer to people saying a lockdown is a bad thing because it also isolates healthy people is: we need a lockdown precisely because we don’t know who is healthy or not.
If we do know who is healthy, however, we don’t need a lockdown. Ergo: testing, testing, testing. Certainly in the beginning, we must test people every 24 hours or so, test them for the virus. test them for antibodies, improve our tests, add more tests, test still more, we can all fill in the rest. And no, that is not an indefinite thing either. Testing will tell us to a much higher degree than we know today, when and where to distance people from each other.
Someone who has tested negative every 24 hours for days or weeks on end can be treated differently from someone who has not. And such a person will be, certainly initially, more careful in interacting with people. Take it from there, and you will in the end actually be rid of the virus, because it will not find enough new potential hosts.
That also means you don’t absolutely need a vaccine. Which is a good thing, because no coronavirus vaccine has ever been “discovered”, and because we have no idea what it would contain. Whenever I hear grand theories about grand bad plans elites or whoever are supposed to have with the virus, I first think: what would the virus need to propagate?
And I always come back to the same answer: it only needs our continuing incompetence: other than lockdowns and face masks, we have given it all the space and opportunity it has needed. It doesn’t need any help from 5G radiation or glyphosate (though both should be subject(ed) to the precautionary principle), or anything people come up with in the extra time their lockdown allows for. All it needs is for us to continue doing what we have: not test.
And opening up our societies again without mass testing, of course, will be the biggest gift we can offer it. This doesn’t mean I deny the possible existence of some plan, or that I want to claim to have knowledge of where the virus originated. It only means that from where I’m sitting, the virus doesn’t need any assistance to do what it has done so far, not that it may or may not have gotten any. Still, door A is factual, and door B is purely hypothetical. And we don’t have seas of time to debate this, we have lives to save.
It’s early May, and there no longer are any excuses for anyone in the western world not wearing face coverings in public, and neither are there excuses for countries lacking the capacity to test their citizens appropriately. Still, in most countries, we are nowhere near that capacity. That is inexcusable. Social distancing is not.
What shuts down societies today is not the virus, not the lockdowns, but the failure to adhere to basic principles with which to approach all potentially epidemic microbes or viruses. The failure to be properly prepared -at all times-, because some thirteen-a-dozen politician elected in a popularity contest considers it too expensive, or too much work. Even if warnings about a next epidemic had been sounded for many years.
The exit strategy is testing while Big Pharma looks for a vaccine. Good thing we don’t have to wait for the latter, because, yes, that would risk an indefinite closure. Testing will get us out once our “leaders” resolve to make it a priority. They should all be voted out of office for not having done that yet, and take their scientific advisers with them. And that’s after we may or may not forgive them for their initial failures.
We may need to overhaul a whole bunch of things to make sure no such perfectly preventable failures happen ever again. But you know how people are. And anyway, we’re in a bit of a bind at the moment.
It’s been 125 days since that first WHO warning, and there are still even many rich countries that can’t manage to test their medical and care workers, let alone the rest of their people.
And you want to argue that the problem here is lockdowns?


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Obama In Panic Mode, Unsealed Flynn Documents Blows the Entire Coup Sky High & Prove Trump Was Right

This guy is BOLD !
Impressed that he would come out and say this on national television .
And the @ @ @ @ @ Proud to say he 's an Oregonian , too .
@ BryanDeanWright pic.twitter.com/PlwM5c2ssp

This guy is BOLD! Impressed that he would come out and say this on national television. And the guy is a democrat!
Proud to say he's an Oregonian, too.@BryanDeanWright pic.twitter.com/PlwM5c2ssp
— MrReagan (@MrReaganUSA) May 2, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--And the winner of the next half trillion dollar bailout is…

At precisely 4pm on Friday October 17 , 1975 , New York City ’ s government would have a $ 453 million in debt to repay .
But literally the night before , the city ’ s government had only $ 34 million on hand .
It was the makings of an epic financial crisis : the wealthiest city in the world was about to declare bankruptcy .
New York City ’ s mayor Abe Beame had called US President Gerald Ford numerous times begging for federal assistance , but Ford refused .
The nation had bigger problems to deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spare , they managed to convince the powerful Teachers ’ Union to use its gigantic pension fund to buy up the bonds and save the day .
The plan worked , and New York City was very narrowly able to escape bankruptcy .
But that wouldn ’ t happen today ; a number of state and local governments are teetering on the edge of default , and public pension funds are in no position to bail them out .
Pensions are actually a huge part of the problem .
New York ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that bailed out the city in 1975 , is today technically insolvent .
According to the pension fund ’ s most recent financial report , the fund is about 40 % short of being able to pay out its obligations .
And the numbers are similar across the board for New York ’ s Fire and Police pension funds as well .
And New York is definitely not the only problem spot .
Public pensions in the State of Illinois are 60 % underfunded , on average .
And more than 65 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only TWO states in the Land of the Free have fully-funded public pensions as of 2019 : Wisconsin and South Dakota .
So , most pension funds are in serious trouble and in no position to bail anyone out .
State government are even worse off : Illinois ’ debt is rated one level above junk , and the state legislature asked the federal government for a $ 40 billion bailout .
California , New Jersey , and New York are also lining up for a federal bailout .
And amazingly enough , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion bailout for state governments .
Plus , last week , the Federal Reserve announced that it will step in and buy $ 500 billion worth of bonds from states , counties , and municipalities .
So that ’ s another $ 1.5 trillion for state and local governments , on top of the trillions of dollars worth of bailouts they ’ ve already made .
Remember– all of this money is just being conjured out of thin air .
These politicians and central bankers believe they can print all the bailout money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a difficult decision .
But this solution is a ridiculous fantasy : you can not borrow or print your way to prosperity .
If that were the case , Zimbabwe would have become the wealthiest country in the world long ago .
It ’ s perfectly fine to remain optimistic and hope that , maybe just maybe , the virus will just magically disappear , everything will go back to normal , and there will never be any consequences from all of this money printing .
And while I ’ m at it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dallas Cowboys decide to make me their starting quarterback next season .
But back here on Planet Earth , it ’ s far more likely that the virus will be around for a while… that decisions will continue to be made by weak leaders whose greatest fear is not being re-elected… and that all this money printing will eventually become a problem .
Let ’ s be frank : there are VERY few instances throughout history where so much money has been created without any nasty consequences .
We know the famous stories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republic .
Then there are stories from ancient and medieval times , like the insufferable inflation of China ’ s Jin and Yuan dynasties ( both of which used paper currency and printed it freely ) .
Even in the United States in the 1970s , cheap interest rates and expansion of the money supply led to some of the worst inflation in US economic history .
You really don ’ t need a PhD in economics to understand that conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air might hurt the long-term value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I keep writing that real assets make so much sense .
There is no sure thing right now .
But real assets like productive land , profitable businesses , and precious metals tend to be safe havens at a time when governments and central banks are willing to sacrifice the currency .
Compared to the amount of money that ’ s being printed right now , precious metals are actually fairly inexpensive .
Gold is undervalued relative to the money supply , and silver is downright cheap relative to gold .
Again , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we could see a real roller coaster ride in prices .
But if you believe ( as I do ) that they ’ re going to continue printing money to bail everyone out , then there ’ s a very strong , long-term case to own precious metals right now .
And especially silver .

by Simon Black
At precisely 4pm on Friday October 17, 1975, New York City’s government would have a $453 million in debt to repay.
But literally the night before, the city’s government had only $34 million on hand.
It was the makings of an epic financial crisis: the wealthiest city in the world was about to declare bankruptcy.
New York City’s mayor Abe Beame had called US President Gerald Ford numerous times begging for federal assistance, but Ford refused. The nation had bigger problems to deal with.
New York was desperate.
But with only hours to spare, they managed to convince the powerful Teachers’ Union to use its gigantic pension fund to buy up the bonds and save the day.
The plan worked, and New York City was very narrowly able to escape bankruptcy.
But that wouldn’t happen today; a number of state and local governments are teetering on the edge of default, and public pension funds are in no position to bail them out.
Pensions are actually a huge part of the problem.
New York’s Teachers’ Retirement System– the same union that bailed out the city in 1975, is today technically insolvent.
According to the pension fund’s most recent financial report, the fund is about 40% short of being able to pay out its obligations.
And the numbers are similar across the board for New York’s Fire and Police pension funds as well.
And New York is definitely not the only problem spot.
Public pensions in the State of Illinois are 60% underfunded, on average. And more than 65% in New Jersey.
In fact, only TWO states in the Land of the Free have fully-funded public pensions as of 2019: Wisconsin and South Dakota.
So, most pension funds are in serious trouble and in no position to bail anyone out.
State government are even worse off: Illinois’ debt is rated one level above junk, and the state legislature asked the federal government for a $40 billion bailout.
California, New Jersey, and New York are also lining up for a federal bailout.
And amazingly enough, Congress is actually considering a $1 trillion bailout for state governments.
Plus, last week, the Federal Reserve announced that it will step in and buy $500 billion worth of bonds from states, counties, and municipalities.
So that’s another $1.5 trillion for state and local governments, on top of the trillions of dollars worth of bailouts they’ve already made.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Remember– all of this money is just being conjured out of thin air. These politicians and central bankers believe they can print all the bailout money they need without ever having to make a difficult decision.
But this solution is a ridiculous fantasy: you cannot borrow or print your way to prosperity.
If that were the case, Zimbabwe would have become the wealthiest country in the world long ago.
It’s perfectly fine to remain optimistic and hope that, maybe just maybe, the virus will just magically disappear, everything will go back to normal, and there will never be any consequences from all of this money printing.
And while I’m at it, I can also hope that the Dallas Cowboys decide to make me their starting quarterback next season.
But back here on Planet Earth, it’s far more likely that the virus will be around for a while… that decisions will continue to be made by weak leaders whose greatest fear is not being re-elected… and that all this money printing will eventually become a problem.
Let’s be frank: there are VERY few instances throughout history where so much money has been created without any nasty consequences.
We know the famous stories like hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic.
Then there are stories from ancient and medieval times, like the insufferable inflation of China’s Jin and Yuan dynasties (both of which used paper currency and printed it freely).
Even in the United States in the 1970s, cheap interest rates and expansion of the money supply led to some of the worst inflation in US economic history.
You really don’t need a PhD in economics to understand that conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air might hurt the long-term value of the currency.
This is why I keep writing that real assets make so much sense.
There is no sure thing right now. But real assets like productive land, profitable businesses, and precious metals tend to be safe havens at a time when governments and central banks are willing to sacrifice the currency.
Compared to the amount of money that’s being printed right now, precious metals are actually fairly inexpensive.
Gold is undervalued relative to the money supply, and silver is downright cheap relative to gold.
Again, there is no sure thing. And we could see a real roller coaster ride in prices.
But if you believe (as I do) that they’re going to continue printing money to bail everyone out, then there’s a very strong, long-term case to own precious metals right now. And especially silver.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--India faces hard economic times with Gold and Liquor

Early this morning we got news on a topic we have been pursuing for several years now and as has become familiar it showed quite an economic slow down .
It caught my eye also because it was the lowest of the manufacturing PMI series this morning .
Although some care is needed as the decimal point is laughable and the 7 is likely to be unreliable as well .
But the theme is clear I think .
Of course much of this is deliberate policy .
So that deals with supply and here is demand .
So there was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and of course external demand was heading south as well .
The plunges above sadly have had an inevitable impact on the labour market as well .
We learn from noting what had already been happening in India .
Things had been slip-sliding away since the recent peak of 7.7 % back around the opening of 2018 .
So without the Covid-19 pandemic we would have seen falls below 5 % .
In response to that the Reserve Bank of India had been cutting interest-rates .
I would have in the past have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts of 0.25 % and one of 0.35 % in 2019 do not qualify for such a description .
Before that was the Demonetisation episode of 2016 where the Indian government created a cash crunch but withdrawing 500 and 1000 Rupee notes .
This was ostensibly to reduce financial crime but also created quite a bit of hardship .
Later as so much of the money returned to the system it transpired that the gains were much smaller than the hardship created .
For newer readers you can find more details on these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On April 17th the Governor of the RBI tried his best to be upbeat .
He was of course running a risk by listening to the IMF and ignoring what the trade date was already signalling .
On Friday the Business Standard was reporting on expectations much more in line with the trade data .
If we stay with that source then we get another hint from what caused the drop in share prices for car manufacturers today .
You will not be surprised to learn that the RBI acted again as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % and the Governor gave a summary of other actions in the speech referred to above .
Those who follow the ECB will note he announced something rather familiar .
Oh and as we are looking at India by ECB I am referring to the central bank and not cricket .
If we switch to the money supply data we see that in the fortnight to April 10th the heat was on as M3 grew by 1.2 % raising the annual rate of growth to 10.8 % .
But there was a counterpoint @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of demand deposits with fell by 7.8 % in a fortnight .
We have looked before at the problems of the Indian banking sector and maybe minds were focused on this as the pandemic hit .
I am switching to this due to its importance in India and gold bugs there may be having a party as they read the Business Standard .
That price may be a driving factor in this .
The situation is made worse by the fact that India starts this phase as a poor country .
Things are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country as the opening of the Liquor Shops today has shown .
Also a problem was around before we reached the pandemic phase .
Now let me give you another Indian spin .
The gold issue has several other impacts .
No doubt the RBI is calculating the wealth effects from the price gain .
However I think of it is another form of money supply as to some extent it has that function there .
Also part of the gain is due to another decline in the Rupee which is at 75.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will recall it was a symbolic issue when it went through 70 .
This creates a backwash as it will make people turn to gold even more .
Let me finish with some good news which is that the much lower oil price will be welcome in energy dependent India .

by Shaun Richards
Early this morning we got news on a topic we have been pursuing for several years now and as has become familiar it showed quite an economic slow down.
At 27.4 in April, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India
Manufacturing PMI® fell from 51.8 in March. The latest reading pointed to the sharpest deterioration in business conditions across the sector since data collection began over 15 years ago.
It caught my eye also because it was the lowest of the manufacturing PMI series this morning. Although some care is needed as the decimal point is laughable and the 7 is likely to be unreliable as well. But the theme is clear I think. Of course much of this is deliberate policy.
The decline in operating conditions was partially driven by
an unprecedented contraction in output. Panellists often
attributed lower production to temporary factory closures that were triggered by restrictive measures to limit the spread of COVID-19.
So that deals with supply and here is demand.
Amid widespread business closures, demand conditions were severely hampered in April. New orders fell for the first time in two-and-a-half years and at the sharpest rate in the survey’s history, far outpacing that seen during the global financial crisis.
So there was something of a race between the two and of course external demand was heading south as well.
Total new business received little support from international markets in April, as new export orders tumbled. Following the first reduction since October 2017 during March, foreign sales fell at a quicker rate in the latest survey period. In fact, the rate of decline accelerated to the fastest since the series began over 15 years ago.
The plunges above sadly have had an inevitable impact on the labour market as well.
Deteriorating demand conditions saw manufacturers drastically cut back staff numbers in April. The reduction in employment was the quickest in the survey’s history. There was a similar trend in purchasing activity, with firms cutting input buying at a record pace.
Background and Context
We learn from noting what had already been happening in India.
Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 146.84 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of ₹ 139.81 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2020. The growth in GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 5.0 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in 2018-19. ( MOSPI )
Things had been slip-sliding away since the recent peak of 7.7% back around the opening of 2018. So without the Covid-19 pandemic we would have seen falls below 5%. In response to that the Reserve Bank of India had been cutting interest-rates. I would have in the past have typed slashed but for these times four cuts of 0.25% and one of 0.35% in 2019 do not qualify for such a description.
Before that was the Demonetisation episode of 2016 where the Indian government created a cash crunch but withdrawing 500 and 1000 Rupee notes. This was ostensibly to reduce financial crime but also created quite a bit of hardship. Later as so much of the money returned to the system it transpired that the gains were much smaller than the hardship created.
For newer readers you can find more details on these issues in my back catalogue on here.
Looking Ahead
On April 17th the Governor of the RBI tried his best to be upbeat.
India is among the handful of countries that is projected to cling on tenuously to positive growth (at 1.9 per cent). In fact, this is the highest growth rate among the G 20 economies………For 2021, the IMF projects sizable V-shaped recoveries: close to 9 percentage points for global GDP. India is expected to post a sharp turnaround and resume its pre-COVID pre-slowdown trajectory by growing at 7.4 per cent in 2021-22.
He was of course running a risk by listening to the IMF and ignoring what the trade date was already signalling.
In the external sector, the contraction in exports in March 2020 at (-) 34.6 per cent has turned out to be much more severe than during the global financial crisis. Barring iron ore, all exporting sectors showed a decline in outbound shipments. Merchandise imports also fell by 28.7 per cent in March across the board, barring transport equipment.
On Friday the Business Standard was reporting on expectations much more in line with the trade data.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
While acknowledging some downside risks from a lockdown extension in urban areas beyond 6 June, we maintain our GDP projection of 0% GDP growth for CY2020, and 0.8% for FY21,” wrote Rahul Bajoria of Barclaysin a report.
If we stay with that source then we get another hint from what caused the drop in share prices for car manufacturers today.
Shares of automobile companies declined on Monday as many firms reported nil sales in the month of April after a nationwide lockdown kept factories and showrooms shut. At 10:11 AM, the Nifty Auto index was down 7.33 per cent as compared to 5.1 per cent decline in the Nifty50 index.
Monetary Policy
You will not be surprised to learn that the RBI acted again as the policy Repo Rate is now 4.4% and the Governor gave a summary of other actions in the speech referred to above.
In my statement of March 27, I had indicated that together with the measures announced on March 27, the RBI’s liquidity injection was about 3.2 per cent of GDP since the February 2020 MPC meeting.
Those who follow the ECB will note he announced something rather familiar.
it has been decided to conduct Targeted Long-Term Repo Operations (TLTRO) 2.0 at the policy repo rate for tenors up to three years for a total amount of up to ₹ 50,000 crores, to begin with, in tranches of appropriate sizes.
Oh and as we are looking at India by ECB I am referring to the central bank and not cricket.
If we switch to the money supply data we see that in the fortnight to April 10th the heat was on as M3 grew by 1.2% raising the annual rate of growth to 10.8%. But there was a counterpoint to this as there were heavy withdrawals of demand deposits with fell by 7.8% in a fortnight. We have looked before at the problems of the Indian banking sector and maybe minds were focused on this as the pandemic hit.
Gold
I am switching to this due to its importance in India and gold bugs there may be having a party as they read the Business Standard.
The sharp rise in the prices of gold —which almost doubled over the past one year —has been the only good for investors at a time when both equities and debt returns have been under pressure.
That price may be a driving factor in this.
India’s demand declined by a staggering 36 per cent during the January-March quarter, to hit the lowest quarterly figure in 11 years due to nationwide that has forced the closure of wholesale and retail showrooms.
Comment
The situation is made worse by the fact that India starts this phase as a poor country. Things are difficult to organise in such a large country as the opening of the Liquor Shops today has shown.
Long queues witnessed outside #LiquorShops in several parts of Chhattisgarh, people defy social distancing norms at many places: Officials ( Press Trust of India)
Also a problem was around before we reached the pandemic phase.
Armies of locusts swarming across continents pose a “severe risk” to India’s agriculture this year, the UN has warned, prompting the authorities to step up vigil, deploy drones to detect their movement and hold talks with Pakistan, the most likely gateway for an invasion by the insects, on ways to minimise the damage. ( Hindustan Times from March)
Now let me give you another Indian spin. The gold issue has several other impacts. No doubt the RBI is calculating the wealth effects from the price gain. However I think of it is another form of money supply as to some extent it has that function there. Also part of the gain is due to another decline in the Rupee which is at 75.6 to the US Dollar. Regular readers will recall it was a symbolic issue when it went through 70. This creates a backwash as it will make people turn to gold even more.
Let me finish with some good news which is that the much lower oil price will be welcome in energy dependent India.
Podcast


Lockdown and reopening

I ’ m in Indiana and the state opened back up on May 1 but my County in particular which is in the capital is still on lockdown until May 15 .
Yesterday my boyfriend and I went to a state park hoping to just get some fresh air .
We had been to parks before and there weren ’ t many people there so it was okay .
Yesterday however was a different story .
There were so many people there they had some of the roads blocked off and people were parking all along side the narrow roads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to park .
I ’ ve never seen so many people in a park .
It was crazy .
What was even crazier to me is that not one of these people were wearing masks or even doing anything remotely close to social distancing .
They had their kids running around .
Large groups of 5-10 people walking while getting very close to others .
It was complete madness .
Just based on this , I honestly feel there ’ s going to be another huge wave of cases and we will end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At this point it feels like the lockdown is going to go into Fall/Winter .
It makes me sad .
Nobody seems to care or have any real understanding of what it means to social distance .
I ’ ve experienced the same thing the few times I ’ ve been to the store as well .
People will literally get within a few feet of me and not wearing masks .
I ’ m hopeful that this will get better soon but at this rate I feel the lockdowns are definitely going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks .

by fairysparkles333
I’m in Indiana and the state opened back up on May 1 but my County in particular which is in the capital is still on lockdown until May 15.
Yesterday my boyfriend and I went to a state park hoping to just get some fresh air. We had been to parks before and there weren’t many people there so it was okay.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Yesterday however was a different story. There were so many people there they had some of the roads blocked off and people were parking all along side the narrow roads where you’re not even supposed to park. I’ve never seen so many people in a park. It was crazy. What was even crazier to me is that not one of these people were wearing masks or even doing anything remotely close to social distancing. They had their kids running around. Large groups of 5-10 people walking while getting very close to others. It was complete madness.
Just based on this, I honestly feel there’s going to be another huge wave of cases and we will end up being on lockdown even longer. At this point it feels like the lockdown is going to go into Fall/Winter. It makes me sad. Nobody seems to care or have any real understanding of what it means to social distance. I’ve experienced the same thing the few times I’ve been to the store as well. People will literally get within a few feet of me and not wearing masks.
I’m hopeful that this will get better soon but at this rate I feel the lockdowns are definitely going to go on longer than another few weeks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Congress Made Economic Crisis Worse By Incentivizing Unemployment Over Earning A Paycheck

One Washington small business owner was shocked at the reaction of her laid off employees who were outraged at the news her spas were among the lucky few enterprises to capture a forgivable government loan under the Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) .
“ It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation , ” Jamie Black-Lewis told CNBC .
The loan secured would allow operations to stay afloat once allowed to reopen by the state governor , meaning her employees would still have jobs after the pandemic .
Their grievances ?
That they would no longer be able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provisions of the loan under the PPP require Black-Lewis to keep her employees on payroll .
Her staff however , had calculated they would rake in more cash from government checks doing nothing than staying on staff doing nothing while the spas remain closed .
“ I couldn ’ t believe it .
On what planet am I competing with unemployment ?
” Black-Lewis said .
This story unfortunately , was of Congress ’ doing .
With soaring unemployment numbers , Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid Relief , and Economic Security ( CARES @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 600 a week on top of whatever was already provided by the state .
A new report from the conservative Heritage Foundation published Wednesday however , shows Congress did more harm than good in ramping up unemployment benefits by providing greater incentives for citizens to collect government handouts than earning a paycheck .

One Washington small business owner was shocked at the reaction of her laid off employees who were outraged at the news her spas were among the lucky few enterprises to capture a forgivable government loan under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).
“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Jamie Black-Lewis told CNBC. The loan secured would allow operations to stay afloat once allowed to reopen by the state governor, meaning her employees would still have jobs after the pandemic.
Their grievances? That they would no longer be able to collect benefits on unemployment. The provisions of the loan under the PPP require Black-Lewis to keep her employees on payroll. Her staff however, had calculated they would rake in more cash from government checks doing nothing than staying on staff doing nothing while the spas remain closed.
“I couldn’t believe it. On what planet am I competing with unemployment?” Black-Lewis said.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
This story unfortunately, was of Congress’ doing.
With soaring unemployment numbers, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act beefing up unemployment benefits by $600 a week on top of whatever was already provided by the state.
A new report from the conservative Heritage Foundation published Wednesday however, shows Congress did more harm than good in ramping up unemployment benefits by providing greater incentives for citizens to collect government handouts than earning a paycheck.
thefederalist.com/2020/05/04/congress-made-economic-crisis-worse-by-incentivizing-unemployment-over-earning-a-paycheck/


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--The New York Federal Reserve prepares to begin buying Corporate Bonds in the next few days.

I guess Jeffrey Gundlach ’ s bluff is being called out and the Fed will deliver on their March 23 @ @ @ @ @ be looking closely at the Fed ’ s weekly statistical releases over the next few @ @ @ @ @ the balance sheet .

by Annapurna
I guess Jeffrey Gundlach’s bluff is being called out and the Fed will deliver on their March 23 promise.
I will definitely be looking closely at the Fed’s weekly statistical releases over the next few weeks to see changes in the balance sheet.
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www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2020/20200501
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primary-and-secondary-market-faq/corporate-credit-facility-faq


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--DEMOCRAT from Oregon says COMEY should get the DEATH PENALTY!


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--Will A Dovish Fed Be Enough To Help?

Will A Dovish Fed Be Enough To Help?

To understand monetary policymakers , you need to step in their shoes .
They are always willing to risk inflation to avoid deflation because they think they can fight inflation easier .
Secondly , when there is a shock to the economy , they would rather keep dovish policy longer than necessary than risk ending it too early .
That ’ s because the Fed knows if it ends policy too early , it will be even tougher to boost the economy after it falls backwards .
In that scenario , investors won ’ t trust the Fed when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ended too early .
With that in mind , let ’ s look at the Fed ’ s decision on Wednesday to keep rates near zero and stay with dovish policy .
As we mentioned , Yellen already stated cutting rates to below 0 would be counterproductive , so the Fed didn ’ t do so .
She ’ s not in charge of the Fed anymore , but she knows how they all think .
The Fed can ’ t get any more dovish than it is right now .
Powell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to do more though ?
I think the answer to that would be yes .
We have a number of dimensions on which we can still provide support to the economy as you know our credit policies are not subject to a specific dollar limit .
They can be expanded as needed and we can do new ones , so we can continue to be part of the answer .
We can do what we can do , and we will do it to the absolute limit of those powers.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eased its purchases .
It includes a forecast from Bank of America .
This is the Fed saying it will do whatever it takes .
The market should believe the Fed because it supported buying corporate and municipal bonds .
The Fed recently expanded its municipal bond buying to small cities especially to help out the deeply indebted ones .
The Fed might need to take charge of what the federal government should be doing because the federal government is more political .
Specifically , the Fed is now making purchases from counties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 250,000 or more .
That ’ s compared to 2 million and 1 million before .
The purchases will be up to 36 months instead of 24 months .
The other change is now the debt needs to be investment grade .
The Fed is doing this policy on the fly .
It doesn ’ t want to pick winners and losers .
It didn ’ t want to leave small cities out of the program .
The Fed also made changes to its Main Street Lending program which you can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minimum loan size is $ 500,000 .
The new thresholds are 15,000 employees and $ 5 billion in revenues .
The firms that sell investment grade bonds to the Fed via the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility aren ’ t eligible for this program , but the firms who have taken out PPP loans can access it .
The Unemployment Rate Might Be 23.8 % Or 28.2 % The trend of decreasing initial claims continued which is slightly good news .
Initial claims pretty much had to fall because so many people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week of April 25th , there were 3.839 million initial claims .
That ’ s down from 4.42 million ( which was revised higher from 4.427 million ) .
This week ’ s report was expected to show 3.5 million which means it missed estimates .
Economists have quickly realized the number of claims is falling each week .
There have been over 30 million claims in the past 12 weeks .
The prior record was near 7.5 million in the early 1980s recession and the late 2000s recession .
There have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks .
The U.S. economy only lost 8.6 million jobs in 2 years during the great financial crisis .
7 states saw initial claims rise this week .
The greatest increases were in Washington and Georgia which had claims go up 62,300 and 17,800 .
Remember , Georgia started to reopen its economy .
The map above shows jobless claims as a percentage of each state ’ s population .
Kentucky and Georgia are in the worst shape .
Florida reported the most claims ; it had 432,465 claims which was above California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first week since March 21st that California didn ’ t have the most .
Both states had declines .
Florida likely saw the most claims because last week the AP reported that 7 out of every 8 Floridians who filed a claim from the 3 weeks in mid March to early April were waiting for it to be processed .
Florida ’ s unemployment filing website broke forcing people to wait in line outside to hand in their paper form .
That ’ s terrible because people aren ’ t supposed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s great that many of those waiting had their claims processed .
2/3rds of claims in California and Texas are on backlog and 30 % of New York ’ s claims are on backlog .
Continuing claims from the week of April 18th rose from 15.818 million to 17.992 million which is way above the previous record high of 6.635 million .
If the ratio of continuing claims to the unemployment rate holds , then the current unemployment rate is 23.8 % .
The chart below models the unemployment rate based on initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 28.2 % .
It ’ s higher because the initial claims reading is updated 1 week quicker .
We will see a +20 % rate in the May report .
Next Friday , the April report will show the unemployment rate is in the low to mid teens .
The unemployment rate could be lower because older people are leaving the workforce for good .
That would decrease the labor force participation rate .
The chart below shows the big decrease in the percentage of 65+ year olds who currently have a job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come back to work because they are the most at risk of dying from coronavirus .
If you are 67 and stopped working , you might want to wait for a vaccine to come out before you start again .
If the vaccine comes in 2 years , you will be 69 at that point .
For health or motivation reasons , those people might not want to go back to work .
Also , employers might not want to hire people who haven ’ t been in the workforce for that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without recent experience when the labor market gets tight .
It might not be tight for a while after this pandemic .
The Fed is extremely dovish and is willing to do whatever it takes to prevent the economy from collapsing .
A complete crash would be much harder to recover from .
The Fed is changing programs in the process in an attempt to help as many as they can .
These are all new programs .
The unemployment rate is over 20 % .
That will bear out in the May @ @ @

by UPFINA
To understand monetary policymakers, you need to step in their shoes. They are always willing to risk inflation to avoid deflation because they think they can fight inflation easier. Secondly, when there is a shock to the economy, they would rather keep dovish policy longer than necessary than risk ending it too early. That’s because the Fed knows if it ends policy too early, it will be even tougher to boost the economy after it falls backwards. In that scenario, investors won’t trust the Fed when it starts stimulus again because the previous time it ended too early.
With that in mind, let’s look at the Fed’s decision on Wednesday to keep rates near zero and stay with dovish policy. As we mentioned, Yellen already stated cutting rates to below 0 would be counterproductive, so the Fed didn’t do so. She’s not in charge of the Fed anymore, but she knows how they all think. The Fed can’t get any more dovish than it is right now. Powell stated, “Will there be a need to do more though? I think the answer to that would be yes. We have a number of dimensions on which we can still provide support to the economy as you know our credit policies are not subject to a specific dollar limit. They can be expanded as needed and we can do new ones, so we can continue to be part of the answer. We can do what we can do, and we will do it to the absolute limit of those powers.” The chart below shows the Fed has gradually eased its purchases. It includes a forecast from Bank of America.
This is the Fed saying it will do whatever it takes. The market should believe the Fed because it supported buying corporate and municipal bonds. The Fed recently expanded its municipal bond buying to small cities especially to help out the deeply indebted ones. The Fed might need to take charge of what the federal government should be doing because the federal government is more political. Specifically, the Fed is now making purchases from counties of 500,000 or more people and cities of 250,000 or more. That’s compared to 2 million and 1 million before. The purchases will be up to 36 months instead of 24 months. The other change is now the debt needs to be investment grade. The Fed is doing this policy on the fly. It doesn’t want to pick winners and losers. It didn’t want to leave small cities out of the program.
The Fed also made changes to its Main Street Lending program which you can see in the tables below.
The new minimum loan size is $500,000. The new thresholds are 15,000 employees and $5 billion in revenues. The firms that sell investment grade bonds to the Fed via the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility aren’t eligible for this program, but the firms who have taken out PPP loans can access it.
The Unemployment Rate Might Be 23.8% Or 28.2%
The trend of decreasing initial claims continued which is slightly good news. Initial claims pretty much had to fall because so many people are already unemployed. Specifically, in the week of April 25th, there were 3.839 million initial claims. That’s down from 4.42 million (which was revised higher from 4.427 million). This week’s report was expected to show 3.5 million which means it missed estimates. Economists have quickly realized the number of claims is falling each week. There have been over 30 million claims in the past 12 weeks. The prior record was near 7.5 million in the early 1980s recession and the late 2000s recession. There have been 30.307 million claims in the past 6 weeks. The U.S. economy only lost 8.6 million jobs in 2 years during the great financial crisis.
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In the past 6 weeks, 30M people have filed an initial unemployment claim in the U.S., 16.3% of the US labor force, This more than wiping out the 22M jobs created since 2009. HI leads at 29%. KY, GA, MI and PA are close behind. SD, NE and UT are the only states under 10%. pic.twitter.com/CxzGCOvz04 — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) May 1, 2020
7 states saw initial claims rise this week. The greatest increases were in Washington and Georgia which had claims go up 62,300 and 17,800. Remember, Georgia started to reopen its economy. The map above shows jobless claims as a percentage of each state’s population. Kentucky and Georgia are in the worst shape.
Florida reported the most claims; it had 432,465 claims which was above California’s 328,042. That’s the first week since March 21st that California didn’t have the most. Both states had declines. Florida likely saw the most claims because last week the AP reported that 7 out of every 8 Floridians who filed a claim from the 3 weeks in mid March to early April were waiting for it to be processed. Florida’s unemployment filing website broke forcing people to wait in line outside to hand in their paper form. That’s terrible because people aren’t supposed to be in large gatherings. It’s great that many of those waiting had their claims processed. 2/3rds of claims in California and Texas are on backlog and 30% of New York’s claims are on backlog.
Continuing claims from the week of April 18th rose from 15.818 million to 17.992 million which is way above the previous record high of 6.635 million. If the ratio of continuing claims to the unemployment rate holds, then the current unemployment rate is 23.8%. The chart below models the unemployment rate based on initial claims. It sees a rate of 28.2%. It’s higher because the initial claims reading is updated 1 week quicker. We will see a +20% rate in the May report. Next Friday, the April report will show the unemployment rate is in the low to mid teens.
√ #US 6-week cumulative initial claims is above 30m, which would correspond to an unemployment rate at 28%, above Great Depression levels √ Current unemployment rate still likely to be around 16% as not all of them will be reported as unemployed pic.twitter.com/iLWIbvvrvg — Patrick Zweifel (@PkZweifel) April 30, 2020
The unemployment rate could be lower because older people are leaving the workforce for good. That would decrease the labor force participation rate. The chart below shows the big decrease in the percentage of 65+ year olds who currently have a job.
To add context on the low 20% implied unemployment and the mid-teen % that will show on April's job report, the difference largely being attributed to older works simply leaving the labor pool for good. pic.twitter.com/81iDkf7htU — Comped Capital (@CapitalComped) May 1, 2020
People above 65 might be hesitant to come back to work because they are the most at risk of dying from coronavirus. If you are 67 and stopped working, you might want to wait for a vaccine to come out before you start again. If the vaccine comes in 2 years, you will be 69 at that point. For health or motivation reasons, those people might not want to go back to work. Also, employers might not want to hire people who haven’t been in the workforce for that long. Employers will only hire people without recent experience when the labor market gets tight. It might not be tight for a while after this pandemic.
Conclusion
The Fed is extremely dovish and is willing to do whatever it takes to prevent the economy from collapsing. A complete crash would be much harder to recover from. The Fed is changing programs in the process in an attempt to help as many as they can. These are all new programs. The unemployment rate is over 20%. That will bear out in the May BLS report.


investmentwatchblog--2020-05-04--All things considered the U.S. economy is in a irreversible downward spiral and we are heading into

All things considered the U.S. economy is in a irreversible downward spiral and we are heading into the worst depression of all time.

Politicians can paint pretty pictures all they want but its obvious whats happening .

Politicians can paint pretty pictures all they want but its obvious whats happening.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Massive Drop in Homebuyer Interest Can virtual tours, phone calls and video conferences replace the real thing? So far, the answer is no as Real Estate Agents Assess the Post-Pandemic Future of Homebuying.t.co/1PYMGK6ekn — Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) May 4, 2020
A quick note I sent today to close friends and family. pic.twitter.com/OReWa0j5jn — Will Meade (@realwillmeade) May 3, 2020
Buffett the world greatest optimist and long only stock picker is hoarding cash and was a net seller of stocks during the most recent crash. I'll side with Buffett the world's best investor over the only lawyer Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Buffett knows the Fed can only do so much — Will Meade (@realwillmeade) May 3, 2020
Vancouver home sales dropped 39% y/y in April. Officially the slowest April on record. pic.twitter.com/QmlOiEvXuD — Steve Saretsky (@SteveSaretsky) May 4, 2020
Not only in the US. Money supply to central banks’ assets is collapsing worldwide. It’s now at all-time lows. Monetary stimulus perhaps not so fluid. This is a liquidity trap. pic.twitter.com/3995GOelwU — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) May 4, 2020
Even before Covid-19 caused massive job losses (26MM), between 40-42 million Americans were already on Food Stamps (SNAP program) pic.twitter.com/K4Ydk6166y — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) May 4, 2020
AC