investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--“In May, what market? I don’t see no market”: Realtor.

The “ combined COVID-19 and oil shock ” are going to do a number on the U.S. housing market , Fannie Mae warned in its monthly report on Wednesday .
Actual data for homes sold after the lockdowns began will not be available for a while , and everyone is grappling with preliminary indications of just how ugly this is going to get .
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index ( HPSI ) plunged 11.7 points in March to 80.8 , the largest single-month drop in the data , Fannie Mae said , “ reflecting quickly diminishing homebuyer sentiment.
” A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Realtors in the first week of April , cited by Fannie Mae , showed that 90 % of the responding Realtors reported declining buyer interest , with half of them reporting declines of over 50 % .
Contract signings in early April plunged by about 35 % to 40 % from a year ago , Fannie Mae estimated , based on Google Trends data .
will plunge 34 % in the second quarter , to an annualized rate of 3.76 million homes , it said , “ a sales pace similar to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And as bad as these sales are , it said that the numbers will be inflated by the April data of closed sales that were deals signed in March and February , before the lockdowns .
This inflated sales data from February and March would give “ modest support ” to second quarter sales .
But going forward , it is “ likely that monthly sales will decline to an even lower annualized pace , in part as evidenced by the decline in the HPSI.
” And this – given the delay between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a drag on third quarter home sales , even as economic activity is expected to begin gradually accelerating.
” And total sales of for 2020 overall , despite its “ projection for strong sales ” in the fourth quarter , would still drop by 15 % , it said .
will drop 40 % in the second quarter , rebound some in the third quarter , and for the year overall drop 12 % , it said .
Thomas Stone , a Realtor in San Francisco Bay Area ’ s Sonoma County @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing , given the lockdown and the new social-distancing rules governing the process of home sales .
“ In person showings are only allowed if virtual tours are unavailable , the home must be vacant , and they are by appointment only .
Two people at a time , max , ” he said .
“ More than 200 homes have been pulled off the market , and new listings so far in April are down 75 % year-over-year , ” he said .
Potential buyers are unmotivated and leery .
And they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tangled up in , the largest unemployment crisis in US history .
“ We still have homes that went into escrow before the lockdown , and a of those buyers are getting cold feet , ” he said .
“ The March sales numbers do not reflect the lockdown ’ s effects , ” he said .
“ April will be very bad .
And May ?
What Market ?
I don ’ t see no market.
” Given the importance of tourism in Sonoma County ( Wine Country ) , vacation rentals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is dead – even local tourism .
And he warned : “ The folks who paid a premium for [ home-sharing service ] VRBO-suitable homes are going to be hurting , as will everyone who bought in the last two years.
” “ We are going to see the fastest and hardest price correction ever in Sonoma County history , ” Realtor Thomas Stone told WOLF STREET .
The more we grapple with early data , the worse it gets .
Mortgage applications to purchase a home in the US during the week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a year ago , and by 42 % from the peak in January , the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday .
It was the fourth week in a row of year-over-year plunges : California , New York , and Washington are the states where lockdowns started first , and the metros in these states are also among the most expensive housing markets in the US and are therefore the most severely impacted by the current plunge in availability of jumbo mortgages .
And so , the year-over-year plunges in purchase-mortgage applications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -35 % .
For the survey week ended April 10 , purchase mortgage applications in California plunged by 49 % , in Washington by 53 % , and in New York by 58 % .
This chart shows the progression over the past four weeks for each of the three states : Who is still buying ?
Purchase mortgage applications are an early indication of demand by potential home buyers .
Demand by nonresident foreign investors – who either come in with their own cash or finance overseas – is not reflected in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been locked out , and demand by them has collapsed .
Demand by large domestic investors that fund their purchases at the institutional level , such as REITs , is also not reflected in purchase mortgage applications .
But these investors are now struggling with a liquidity crisis and have other things to worry about .
Driven by lower mortgage rates , applications for mortgages to refinance existing mortgages nearly tripled from a year ago , though they were down from the historic spike in early March when refi applications hit highest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now over : The MBA obtains this data via weekly surveys of banks , nonbanks , and thrifts that cover 75 % of all residential mortgage applications .
It doesn ’ t help that mortgage lending standards have suddenly tightened – and in some areas drastically , such as for jumbo mortgages .
But how loose were those lending standards to begin with , how did they compare to the lending standards in mid-2006 right before the Mortgage Crisis , and by how much have those lending standards now tightened ?
Read… Going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Even Get a Mortgage .
Expensive Housing Markets Most Affected

The “combined COVID-19 and oil shock” are going to do a number on the U.S. housing market, Fannie Mae warned in its monthly report on Wednesday. Actual data for homes sold after the lockdowns began will not be available for a while, and everyone is grappling with preliminary indications of just how ugly this is going to get.
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) plunged 11.7 points in March to 80.8, the largest single-month drop in the data, Fannie Mae said, “reflecting quickly diminishing homebuyer sentiment.”
A survey conducted by the National Association of Realtors in the first week of April, cited by Fannie Mae, showed that 90% of the responding Realtors reported declining buyer interest, with half of them reporting declines of over 50%.
Contract signings in early April plunged by about 35% to 40% from a year ago, Fannie Mae estimated, based on Google Trends data.
Existing home sales will plunge 34% in the second quarter, to an annualized rate of 3.76 million homes, it said, “a sales pace similar to the lowest quarters of the Great Recession.”
And as bad as these sales are, it said that the numbers will be inflated by the April data of closed sales that were deals signed in March and February, before the lockdowns. This inflated sales data from February and March would give “modest support” to second quarter sales.
But going forward, it is “likely that monthly sales will decline to an even lower annualized pace, in part as evidenced by the decline in the HPSI.” And this – given the delay between signings and closings – would “lead to a drag on third quarter home sales, even as economic activity is expected to begin gradually accelerating.”
And total sales of existing homes for 2020 overall, despite its “projection for strong sales” in the fourth quarter, would still drop by 15%, it said.
New home sales will drop 40% in the second quarter, rebound some in the third quarter, and for the year overall drop 12%, it said.
The boots-on-the-ground warnings are starker.
Thomas Stone, a Realtor in San Francisco Bay Area’s Sonoma County, told WOLF STREET what he is seeing, given the lockdown and the new social-distancing rules governing the process of home sales.
“In person showings are only allowed if virtual tours are unavailable, the home must be vacant, and they are by appointment only. Two people at a time, max,” he said.
“More than 200 homes have been pulled off the market, and new listings so far in April are down 75% year-over-year,” he said. Potential buyers are unmotivated and leery. And they’re facing, or are already tangled up in, the largest unemployment crisis in US history.
“We still have homes that went into escrow before the lockdown, and a lot of those buyers are getting cold feet,” he said.
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“The March sales numbers do not reflect the lockdown’s effects,” he said. “April will be very bad. And May? What Market? I don’t see no market.”
Given the importance of tourism in Sonoma County (Wine Country), vacation rentals are a big thing. But tourism is dead – even local tourism. And he warned: “The folks who paid a premium for [home-sharing service] VRBO-suitable homes are going to be hurting, as will everyone who bought in the last two years.”
“We are going to see the fastest and hardest price correction ever in Sonoma County history,” Realtor Thomas Stone told WOLF STREET.
The more we grapple with early data, the worse it gets.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home in the US during the week ended April 10 plunged by 35% from a year ago, and by 42% from the peak in January, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday. It was the fourth week in a row of year-over-year plunges:
California, New York, and Washington are the states where lockdowns started first, and the metros in these states are also among the most expensive housing markets in the US and are therefore the most severely impacted by the current plunge in availability of jumbo mortgages. And so, the year-over-year plunges in purchase-mortgage applications were far steeper than US average of -35%.
For the survey week ended April 10, purchase mortgage applications in California plunged by 49%, in Washington by 53%, and in New York by 58%. This chart shows the progression over the past four weeks for each of the three states:
Who is still buying?
Purchase mortgage applications are an early indication of demand by potential home buyers.
Demand by nonresident foreign investors – who either come in with their own cash or finance overseas – is not reflected in purchase mortgage applications; and those investors have been locked out, and demand by them has collapsed.
Demand by large domestic investors that fund their purchases at the institutional level, such as REITs, is also not reflected in purchase mortgage applications. But these investors are now struggling with a liquidity crisis and have other things to worry about.
But refis are red-hot.
Driven by lower mortgage rates, applications for mortgages to refinance existing mortgages nearly tripled from a year ago, though they were down from the historic spike in early March when refi applications hit highest level since 2003. Refi applications are now over three-quarters of all mortgage applications :
The MBA obtains this data via weekly surveys of banks, nonbanks, and thrifts that cover 75% of all residential mortgage applications.
It doesn’t help that mortgage lending standards have suddenly tightened – and in some areas drastically, such as for jumbo mortgages. But how loose were those lending standards to begin with, how did they compare to the lending standards in mid-2006 right before the Mortgage Crisis, and by how much have those lending standards now tightened? Read… Going to be Tougher for Lots of People to Even Get a Mortgage. Expensive Housing Markets Most Affected


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Remdesivir vs. SPY tomorrow

Remdesivir vs. SPY tomorrow

I ’ m more bullish than probably 80 % of folks on this site , but this trial data is useless .
First of all , 125 patients is a tiny sample size .
Second of all , 2 patients died , which is a 1.6 % fatality rate for patients who were probably receiving the best medical care available in the world .
Do you really think a UChicago/Gilead funded study will have the same overworked doctors in any other hospital running the trial ?
Third of all , and this is huge , THERE IS NO CONTROL GROUP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bat against your face to see if you ’ ll get cured .
This goes back to point number two .
We have no way of determining what the fatality rate might be for patients receiving top notch medical care ( after all , Gilead has every financial incentive to make this drug look effective ) , but just a saline infusion instead of Remdesivir .
Maybe the fatality rate would be 1.6 % for anyone under Gilead ’ s care , whether they received Remdesivir or not .
I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took a basic statistics or biology course .
SPY is heavily weighted toward tech stocks which have led the huge rally so far .
We ’ ve all made insane returns betting that it will continue to go up , but I guarantee people start taking profits tomorrow , especially after hitting ATH ’ s , and will start moving their gains to immensely undervalued companies .
TLDR : Congrats on holding calls tonight , but take your profits within the first 30 minutes .
SPY will finish below where we ended today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ksixi
I’m more bullish than probably 80% of folks on this site, but this trial data is useless.
First of all, 125 patients is a tiny sample size.
Second of all, 2 patients died, which is a 1.6% fatality rate for patients who were probably receiving the best medical care available in the world. Do you really think a UChicago/Gilead funded study will have the same overworked doctors in any other hospital running the trial?
Third of all, and this is huge,THERE IS NO CONTROL GROUP. Seriously? Might as well rub a bat against your face to see if you’ll get cured.
This goes back to point number two. We have no way of determining what the fatality rate might be for patients receiving top notch medical care (after all, Gilead has every financial incentive to make this drug look effective), but just a saline infusion instead of Remdesivir. Maybe the fatality rate would be 1.6% for anyone under Gilead’s care, whether they received Remdesivir or not.
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I’m thinking that the after hours algorithms never took a basic statistics or biology course.
SPY is heavily weighted toward tech stocks which have led the huge rally so far. We’ve all made insane returns betting that it will continue to go up, but I guarantee people start taking profits tomorrow, especially after hitting ATH’s, and will start moving their gains to immensely undervalued companies.
TLDR: Congrats on holding calls tonight, but take your profits within the first 30 minutes. SPY will finish below where we ended today.
4/17 SPY $282c
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--RUSH: The Great Depression was in 1929. It lasted 12 years. It didn’t need to, but it did. My dad ne

RUSH: The Great Depression was in 1929. It lasted 12 years. It didn’t need to, but it did. My dad never got over it.

RUSH : I ’ ll tell you : This coronavirus is a gigantic teachable moment .
It ’ s teaching everybody a whole lot of things if they would just take the time to learn it — and the biggest thing , the absolute biggest thing that you have the opportunity to learn : How in the world can anybody sane want to keep this economy shut down ?
How can anybody sane be anything less than scared and outraged and mortified that 22 million people have been thrown out of work over something that may end up killing fewer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And yet there are people who want to maintain the circumstances we are in .
And it boggles the mind .
It befuddles the mind .
It is so counterintuitive to Americanism .
We can not go on .
Trump is gon na be announcing his reopening plans , and already Governor Cuomo has announced that he ’ s gon na get a consultancy group in there to work on competing ideas ’ cause he doesn ’ t want to be bound by whatever Trump ’ s plans are .
Fine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ break through , to permeate obviously existing great walls of resistance that some people have .
Some people , when you start criticizing government , they just tune you out .
They ’ re not interested in it .
But this can ’ t go on !
I can ’ t believe it has gone on this long .
I can ’ t believe… In one way , I can ’ t believe the American people haven ’ t arisen in outrage over this yet .
But you know what ?
It isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because the checks they were promised , they ’ re not immediately forthcoming .
For example , if you haven ’ t gotten your application in for a small business loan , you are SOL , because the bureaucracy — no matter how well-intentioned — simply can ’ t meet the demand .
So we ’ ve had announced policies where you were promised money and you ’ re not gon na get it .
What are you gon na do ?
What are people gon na do ?
It ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boarded up .
I ’ ll tell you what the pro-status-quo people are relying on — and it ’ s gon na be fascinating to see how long they can prolong this .
They ’ ve got people convinced that they ’ re gon na die if they leave home .
Is that too bad an exaggeration , Mr. Snerdley ?
( interruption ) I ’ m trying to be as accurate as I can without being over the top .
But literally , they ’ re relying on the fact that you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get an infection .
“ You could die if you leave home !
“ You could die if you don ’ t wash your hands all the time.
” By the way , I have started doing that .
“ You could die if you ’ re not wearing a mask .
You could die !
” Not you could get infected or you could get sick .
“ You could die !
” That ’ s an effective means of control .
“ You could die if you leave home .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work !
You could die if we reopen the economy.
” “ You could die if we reopen the subways .
You could die if we open Grand Central .
You could die.
” Except the numbers don ’ t back it up .
When you look at the reported infections and the reported deaths and then you look at the model projections , we started with 2.2 million — what a great way to scare people — then it was a hundred thousand , then it became a hundred thousand to 240,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the apocalypse .
And now the modeler who has yet to be right — no personal criticism intended , just factual analysis .
The modeler who has yet to be right is gon na revise his numbers downward again today to fewer than 61,000 projected deaths by August .
There ought to be a lot more death than this .
“ Well , no , Rush , because we have been practicing social distancing and we ’ ve been flattening the curve.
” Let me remind you again about flattening the curve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They were at times honest about it .
But not consistently .
Flattening the curve — please don ’ t doubt me on the .
I have no desire to mislead anybody , and I really am not helped in any way by being wrong .
Flattening the curve had one objective , and that was to prevent massive overruns of our hospitals with coronavirus patients .
It was meant to keep you inside so that you wouldn ’ t become sick , so that you wouldn ’ t go to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , either .
So that the hospitals would be pretty much equipped to handle the number of patients who came in with COVID-19 .
It was never intended to stop people from getting it .
It was never intended to wipe out the virus .
In fact , flattening the curve extends the length of time we have to deal with it .
Flattening the curve prevents things like people getting infected and developing antibodies and immunity .
It prevents that .
So now it turns out that 60,000 some odd people were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for flu in 2018 .
The upshot is that we are nowhere near stressing our hospital system with COVID-19 patients .
This is not an argument , “ Okay .
So we can let more people get infected , eh ?
” No , it ’ s not .
I ’ m trying to put all this in the hopper to tell you that all of these projections have not even been close to being accurate .
Look .
We can ’ t go back and pretend we didn ’ t she down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reverse any of this , but it ’ s time , it is past time to move beyond the mistakes that we ’ ve made and get it reopened .
It simply has to happen .
There is no question about it .
We are living in a cataclysmic situation that can not go on .
It has to reopen .
People are going to continue to get CV-19 whether we reopen or not .
People are going to get the flu whether we reopen or not .
People are gon na get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
People are gon na have heart disease whether we open or not .
People are gon na have traffic accidents whether we reopen or not .
People are gon na commit suicide whether we reopen or not .
People are gon na die from heart disease whether we reopen or not .
People are going to , as I say , continue to be infected by COVID-19 whether we reopen or not .
Here ’ s the thing .
The moment we reopen , the day after , the day after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are gon na be laser focused to find the first death .
That first death is gon na be pictured side by side with Donald Trump .
And that person ’ s death is going to be blamed on Donald Trump for reopening the economy .
Donald Trump knows this .
That will backfire on the mainstream media , except in Democrat circles .
RUSH : President Trump at the moment is meeting with American truckers at the White House , calling them the foot soldiers in the war on coronavirus .
Folks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and literally the more I think about this , the more dumbfounded and befuddled I become .
The common sense that is apparently missing with so many people here is mind-boggling to behold .
I know I overuse the term “ mind-boggling.
” How in the world there can be people stridently — I mean , actively , eagerly — in favor of continuing this government shutdown ?
We are destroying our country !
How is this not alarming to people ?
How is this not seen ?
How are people missing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Why can ’ t there be some form of compromise ?
We can do many things at one time .
The idea that we can not reopen this economy , the idea that there are some people who can not return to work and start the process of getting things going , the idea that this is a binary thing and we only have two options ?
Destroy the economy or what ?
What is the other option ?
Well , they want to set it up as just that .
You know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lives , lives versus money .
That ’ s not what this is .
It never has been about that .
This is about lives versus lives .
We are destroying people ’ s lives who are continuing to live .
We are destroying their lives by shutting down their livelihoods , their opportunity to access their livelihoods , their chances to work .
We are destroying people in a number of different ways .
The idea that we ’ re saving people by destroying the U.S. economy is… It ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The idea that we can somehow save people by continuing a policy that destroys the U.S. economy — and it will .
Let me tell you something about when I was growing up in the fifties and sixties .
My parents and grandparents ’ most formative experience in their lives — in other words , the thing that was the top of the list in the way they raised us , the values they attempted to instill in us — was the Great Depression .
My dad was born in 1918 ; my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forgot it .
It shaped everything they did the rest of their lives .
They had to put up with a lot of other things too .
They had to put up with World War II , Korea .
They had to put up with the rise of the Soviet Union and the Cold War threatening to wipe us out and imprison their grandkids .
They had a lot on their plate , and the Great Depression was the formative thing because it was so horrible .
People were starving to death .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything .
It was widespread , abject poverty on steroids .
There wasn ’ t anything like the current level of government spending or printing of money to get through it .
There was genuine hardship — and it was why my father insisted that I go to college .
Because in the days of the Great Depression and in its aftermath , it was the only hope anybody had of getting a decent job that was career oriented that would pay you enough money to help insulate you , ’ cause they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Once something like that happens , the fear of it happening again is front and center in your mind .
And as parents , they were doing everything they could to shield and protect me and my brother from having to go through it .
It was the worst thing in their lives .
And that ’ s where we ’ re headed , if this goes on .
We are headed to Great Depression .
All we need is a 30 to 40 % contraction in this economy .
We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then depression , if this doesn ’ t stop — and the idea that there are people advocating for this !
These people need to be stopped , whoever they are and wherever they are .
And these people who are only offering a binary choice : Sit in your home and basically watch every economic opportunity around you collapse — but at least you ’ ll be alive to vote Democrat and be saved by the government — or reopen the economy .
Send people out .
The sick stay home .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ anybody .
If you ’ re feeling bad , stay at home .
The rest , go to work .
Take the risk .
It ’ s what life is about .
You could die from anything any moment of any day .
You could die from crossing the street .
I don ’ t mean to minimize it , but it ’ s true .
You have a greater chance of dying from things before the coronavirus gets you , and nobody ’ s staying at home for those risks .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Great Depression my father had .
I ’ d be snarky .
“ Dad , come on .
I wasn ’ t alive .
I don ’ t care how much you tell me about it , I can ’ t relate to it .
I didn ’ t experience it.
” I was like every kid .
“ Come on , Dad.
” We ’ re sitting there in our night comfortable home , and we ’ re driving around .
The thought of a Great Depression was the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conceive of .
So I ’ m snarky about it .
He said , “ Son , you better hope that you never have anything like that happen to you .
You better hope you never live through it.
” It was that bad for the people who did — and we ’ re headed for it , and we ’ ve done it to ourselves .
It is not that our economy is falsely created .
It ’ s not that our economy is a house-of-cards sham .
It ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We are doing this to ourselves — and it ’ s amazing how quickly .
Three years to revive an economy , create roaring circumstances .
It took less than two months to wipe it all out .
Twenty-two million people filing for unemployment compensation — 22 million — and the idea that there is not an angry outcry from all over the world that this must stop ?
That outcry had better happen , because this… We ’ re beyond now saying this is unsustainable .
This is untenable .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of a self-created disaster that we could fix ( snap , snap , snap ) at the snap of our fingers .
We could begin the process of reversing this tomorrow — we could do it May 1st , we could do it April the 30th , we could do it April 21st — and there are forces arrayed against doing that .
We know who they are .
We know exactly .
We know they ’ re all Democrats .
We know they are some in the health and medical community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Missoula , Montana .
Great to have you on the program .
Hello .
CALLER : Rush , hello , mega Dittohead and Rush Baby from Missoula , the Berkeley of the northwest .
CALLER : Thank you so much for taking my call .
CALLER : Well , I just want to build on what you ’ ve been saying all morning , how absurd this is .
You haven ’ t heard of Montana in the news because we have around 400 cases , some of the least in the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same elderly care facility .
Yet we are shut down until supposedly the end of the month with our Democratic governor who is implying that he ’ s in no rush to open it up .
And my frustration is the numbers don ’ t justify this .
It is absurd and ridiculous .
RUSH : He ’ s a Democrat , though , so there ’ s your answer .
CALLER : Exactly .
And I ’ m just like people need to wake up because the data doesn ’ t justify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t see how more people are not upset about this .
RUSH : They might be .
We ’ re just not hearing from them .
I mean , the Drive-By Media ’ s not breaking down your door to talk to you .
The Drive-By Media ’ s not breaking down doors .
The Drive-By Media doesn ’ t want to hear from people who want to get back up and running .
The Drive-By Media , the media and the Democrats are fully on board with the Democrat agenda here and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of telling you what I think the Democrat agenda is .
I ’ ll just tell you .
They are hoping that coronavirus accomplishes what Robert Mueller and impeachment Adam Schiff failed to do .
“ What ’ s that ?
What are you talking about ?
” Getting rid of Donald Trump .
“ Are you kidding me ?
You think , Mr. Limbaugh , that that ’ s all the Democrats care about ?
” I haven ’ t seen the evidence otherwise .
I see these Democrat governors when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ Nope , nope , nope , another two weeks , nope , nope , nope , another month , nope , nope , nope , not even gon na worry about the Constitution , nope , nope , nope , can ’ t do it.
” I don ’ t even her them say , “ Yeah , you know we need to reopen it , but… ” I don ’ t even hear ’ em say that .
I hear ’ em say , “ Nope , nope , nope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perfect case in point , Montana , there aren ’ t any cases appreciably .
“ Nope , nope , nope , nope , not gon na reopen.
” He knows what will happen to him if he does .
Nobody wants to run afoul of the Democrat Party establishment here , to the extent anybody knows who it is .
How in the world — I mean , we talk about every election we hear about , “ We got ta elect people that know how to cross the aisle , Rush @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , shake hands , they can work with the other side , prove government can work .
We got ta show out there , Rush , that we can cooperate.
” If this doesn ’ t promote unity , there isn ’ t anything that ever will .
How in the world you can not be unified under the premise that the American economy needs to up and running .
If you can ’ t unify , if we can ’ t unify around that , if there is serious political pressure to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every week , if there is political pressure to maintain that , God bless us .

via rushlimbaugh
RUSH: I’ll tell you: This coronavirus is a gigantic teachable moment. It’s teaching everybody a whole lot of things if they would just take the time to learn it — and the biggest thing, the absolute biggest thing that you have the opportunity to learn: How in the world can anybody sane want to keep this economy shut down?
How can anybody sane be anything less than scared and outraged and mortified that 22 million people have been thrown out of work over something that may end up killing fewer than 50,000 people? It is unprecedented. And yet there are people who want to maintain the circumstances we are in. And it boggles the mind.
It befuddles the mind. It is so counterintuitive to Americanism. We cannot go on. Trump is gonna be announcing his reopening plans, and already Governor Cuomo has announced that he’s gonna get a consultancy group in there to work on competing ideas ’cause he doesn’t want to be bound by whatever Trump’s plans are.
Fine. I’m struggling for ways to break through, to permeate obviously existing great walls of resistance that some people have. Some people, when you start criticizing government, they just tune you out. They’re not interested in it. But this can’t go on! I can’t believe it has gone on this long. I can’t believe… In one way, I can’t believe the American people haven’t arisen in outrage over this yet.
But you know what? It isn’t gonna be long, because the checks they were promised, they’re not immediately forthcoming. For example, if you haven’t gotten your application in for a small business loan, you are SOL, because the bureaucracy — no matter how well-intentioned — simply can’t meet the demand.
So we’ve had announced policies where you were promised money and you’re not gonna get it. What are you gonna do? What are people gonna do? It’s not in human nature to sit and remain boarded up. I’ll tell you what the pro-status-quo people are relying on — and it’s gonna be fascinating to see how long they can prolong this.
They’ve got people convinced that they’re gonna die if they leave home. Is that too bad an exaggeration, Mr. Snerdley? (interruption) I’m trying to be as accurate as I can without being over the top. But literally, they’re relying on the fact that you could die. Not that you could get an infection. “You could die if you leave home!
“You could die if you don’t wash your hands all the time.” By the way, I have started doing that. “You could die if you’re not wearing a mask. You could die!” Not you could get infected or you could get sick. “You could die!” That’s an effective means of control. “You could die if you leave home. You could die if you go back to work! You could die if we reopen the economy.”
“You could die if we reopen the subways. You could die if we open Grand Central. You could die.” Except the numbers don’t back it up. When you look at the reported infections and the reported deaths and then you look at the model projections, we started with 2.2 million — what a great way to scare people — then it was a hundred thousand, then it became a hundred thousand to 240,000, then last week was going to be the apocalypse.
And it wasn’t.
And now the modeler who has yet to be right — no personal criticism intended, just factual analysis. The modeler who has yet to be right is gonna revise his numbers downward again today to fewer than 61,000 projected deaths by August. There ought to be a lot more death than this. “Well, no, Rush, because we have been practicing social distancing and we’ve been flattening the curve.”
Let me remind you again about flattening the curve. Flattening the curve had one objective. They were at times honest about it. But not consistently. Flattening the curve — please don’t doubt me on the. I have no desire to mislead anybody, and I really am not helped in any way by being wrong. Flattening the curve had one objective, and that was to prevent massive overruns of our hospitals with coronavirus patients. It was meant to keep you inside so that you wouldn’t become sick, so that you wouldn’t go to the hospital and so that nobody else would, either. So that the hospitals would be pretty much equipped to handle the number of patients who came in with COVID-19.
It was never intended to stop people from getting it. It was never intended to wipe out the virus. In fact, flattening the curve extends the length of time we have to deal with it. Flattening the curve prevents things like people getting infected and developing antibodies and immunity. It prevents that. So now it turns out that 60,000 some odd people were hospitalized so far versus 810,000 people hospitalized for flu in 2018. The upshot is that we are nowhere near stressing our hospital system with COVID-19 patients.
This is not an argument, “Okay. So we can let more people get infected, eh?” No, it’s not. I’m trying to put all this in the hopper to tell you that all of these projections have not even been close to being accurate. Look. We can’t go back and pretend we didn’t she down the economy. We can’t reverse any of this, but it’s time, it is past time to move beyond the mistakes that we’ve made and get it reopened. It simply has to happen. There is no question about it.
We are living in a cataclysmic situation that cannot go on. It has to reopen. People are going to continue to get CV-19 whether we reopen or not. People are going to get the flu whether we reopen or not. People are gonna get the cold whether we reopen or not. People are gonna have heart disease whether we open or not. People are gonna have traffic accidents whether we reopen or not. People are gonna commit suicide whether we reopen or not. People are gonna die from heart disease whether we reopen or not.
People are going to, as I say, continue to be infected by COVID-19 whether we reopen or not. Here’s the thing. The moment we reopen, the day after, the day after the media, the Democrats in the media are gonna be laser focused to find the first death. That first death is gonna be pictured side by side with Donald Trump. And that person’s death is going to be blamed on Donald Trump for reopening the economy. Donald Trump knows this. That will backfire on the mainstream media, except in Democrat circles.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: President Trump at the moment is meeting with American truckers at the White House, calling them the foot soldiers in the war on coronavirus. Folks, I’m sitting here, and literally the more I think about this, the more dumbfounded and befuddled I become. The common sense that is apparently missing with so many people here is mind-boggling to behold.
I know I overuse the term “mind-boggling.” How in the world there can be people stridently — I mean, actively, eagerly — in favor of continuing this government shutdown? We are destroying our country! How is this not alarming to people? How is this not seen? How are people missing that that’s what going on? Why can’t there be some form of compromise?
We can do many things at one time. The idea that we cannot reopen this economy, the idea that there are some people who cannot return to work and start the process of getting things going, the idea that this is a binary thing and we only have two options? Destroy the economy or what? What is the other option? Well, they want to set it up as just that.
You know, lives versus greed, greed versus lives, lives versus money. That’s not what this is. It never has been about that. This is about lives versus lives. We are destroying people’s lives who are continuing to live. We are destroying their lives by shutting down their livelihoods, their opportunity to access their livelihoods, their chances to work.
We are destroying people in a number of different ways. The idea that we’re saving people by destroying the U.S. economy is… It’s a nonstarter. It’s absurd. The idea that we can somehow save people by continuing a policy that destroys the U.S. economy — and it will. Let me tell you something about when I was growing up in the fifties and sixties.
My parents and grandparents’ most formative experience in their lives — in other words, the thing that was the top of the list in the way they raised us, the values they attempted to instill in us — was the Great Depression. My dad was born in 1918; my mom in 1928.
His parents never forgot it.
It shaped everything they did the rest of their lives. They had to put up with a lot of other things too. They had to put up with World War II, Korea. They had to put up with the rise of the Soviet Union and the Cold War threatening to wipe us out and imprison their grandkids. They had a lot on their plate, and the Great Depression was the formative thing because it was so horrible.
People were starving to death. People were committing suicide. Nobody had anything. It was widespread, abject poverty on steroids. There wasn’t anything like the current level of government spending or printing of money to get through it. There was genuine hardship — and it was why my father insisted that I go to college.
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Because in the days of the Great Depression and in its aftermath, it was the only hope anybody had of getting a decent job that was career oriented that would pay you enough money to help insulate you, ’cause they thought it was gonna happen again. Once something like that happens, the fear of it happening again is front and center in your mind.
And as parents, they were doing everything they could to shield and protect me and my brother from having to go through it. It was the worst thing in their lives. And that’s where we’re headed, if this goes on. We are headed to Great Depression. All we need is a 30 to 40% contraction in this economy. We’ll hit Great Recession territory first and then depression, if this doesn’t stop — and the idea that there are people advocating for this!
These people need to be stopped, whoever they are and wherever they are. And these people who are only offering a binary choice: Sit in your home and basically watch every economic opportunity around you collapse — but at least you’ll be alive to vote Democrat and be saved by the government — or reopen the economy. Send people out.
The sick stay home. The sick don’t mingle with anybody. If you’re feeling bad, stay at home. The rest, go to work. Take the risk. It’s what life is about. You could die from anything any moment of any day. You could die from crossing the street. I don’t mean to minimize it, but it’s true. You have a greater chance of dying from things before the coronavirus gets you, and nobody’s staying at home for those risks.
But I’ll never forget the fear of the Great Depression my father had. I’d be snarky. “Dad, come on. I wasn’t alive. I don’t care how much you tell me about it, I can’t relate to it. I didn’t experience it.” I was like every kid. “Come on, Dad.” We’re sitting there in our night comfortable home, and we’re driving around. The thought of a Great Depression was the last thing in the world I could even conceive of.
So I’m snarky about it. He said, “Son, you better hope that you never have anything like that happen to you. You better hope you never live through it.” It was that bad for the people who did — and we’re headed for it, and we’ve done it to ourselves. It is not that our economy is falsely created. It’s not that our economy is a house-of-cards sham. It’s not that capitalism doesn’t work.
We are doing this to ourselves — and it’s amazing how quickly. Three years to revive an economy, create roaring circumstances. It took less than two months to wipe it all out. Twenty-two million people filing for unemployment compensation — 22 million — and the idea that there is not an angry outcry from all over the world that this must stop?
That outcry had better happen, because this… We’re beyond now saying this is unsustainable. This is untenable. This is cataclysmic. We’re in the midst of a self-created disaster that we could fix (snap, snap, snap) at the snap of our fingers. We could begin the process of reversing this tomorrow — we could do it May 1st, we could do it April the 30th, we could do it April 21st — and there are forces arrayed against doing that.
Fascinating.
We know who they are.
We know exactly.
We know they’re all Democrats.
We know they are some in the health and medical community.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Here is Erin in Missoula, Montana. Great to have you on the program. Hello.
CALLER: Rush, hello, mega Dittohead and Rush Baby from Missoula, the Berkeley of the northwest.
RUSH: Thank you.
CALLER: Thank you so much for taking my call.
RUSH: You bet.
CALLER: Well, I just want to build on what you’ve been saying all morning, how absurd this is. You haven’t heard of Montana in the news because we have around 400 cases, some of the least in the country, seven deaths, three from the same elderly care facility. Yet we are shut down until supposedly the end of the month with our Democratic governor who is implying that he’s in no rush to open it up. And my frustration is the numbers don’t justify this. It is absurd and ridiculous.
RUSH: He’s a Democrat, though, so there’s your answer.
CALLER: Exactly. And I’m just like people need to wake up because the data doesn’t justify the means, and I don’t see how more people are not upset about this.
RUSH: They might be. We’re just not hearing from them. I mean, the Drive-By Media’s not breaking down your door to talk to you. The Drive-By Media’s not breaking down doors. The Drive-By Media doesn’t want to hear from people who want to get back up and running. The Drive-By Media, the media and the Democrats are fully on board with the Democrat agenda here and there’s any number of ways of telling you what I think the Democrat agenda is.
I’ll just tell you. They are hoping that coronavirus accomplishes what Robert Mueller and impeachment Adam Schiff failed to do. “What’s that? What are you talking about?” Getting rid of Donald Trump. “Are you kidding me? You think, Mr. Limbaugh, that that’s all the Democrats care about?” I haven’t seen the evidence otherwise. I see these Democrat governors when the talk of opening the economy comes up, “Nope, nope, nope, another two weeks, nope, nope, nope, another month, nope, nope, nope, not even gonna worry about the Constitution, nope, nope, nope, can’t do it.”
I don’t even her them say, “Yeah, you know we need to reopen it, but…” I don’t even hear ’em say that. I hear ’em say, “Nope, nope, nope, nope.” Governor Steve Bullock, perfect case in point, Montana, there aren’t any cases appreciably. “Nope, nope, nope, nope, not gonna reopen.” He knows what will happen to him if he does. Nobody wants to run afoul of the Democrat Party establishment here, to the extent anybody knows who it is.
How in the world — I mean, we talk about every election we hear about, “We gotta elect people that know how to cross the aisle, Rush, know how to cross the aisle, shake hands, they can work with the other side, prove government can work. We gotta show out there, Rush, that we can cooperate.” If this doesn’t promote unity, there isn’t anything that ever will. How in the world you cannot be unified under the premise that the American economy needs to up and running. If you can’t unify, if we can’t unify around that, if there is serious political pressure to maintain six million people losing their jobs every week, if there is political pressure to maintain that, God bless us.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Chris Vermeulen: Stocks In Bear Market Rally, Gold & Silver Go Ballistic Once Stock Market Bottoms

Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders interviewed by Half Dollar of Silver Doctors Silver and the junior miners may not be the hottest sector around right now , but they will be once the stock market reaches its bottom .
When will that be , and what can we expect ?
Chris Vermeulen joins us today to discuss all of the latest action in the markets , from a professional , technical trader ’ s point of view .
During this deep dive into the markets , we discuss the stock market , silver , gold , the mining sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fundamentals versus the technicals , and a whole lot more .
Is the US stock market in a suckers ’ rally ?
The precious metals sector is about to become the hottest sector of the markets ?
What ’ s Chris seeing in the silver charts ?
What kind of opportunities are there in the precious metals sector ?
Is it good to sit out the markets , and what about staying on the sidelines with cash ?
What in the world is going on in the energy sector ?
How are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and out of markets that are now so volatile ?
What ’ s on the radar as we move into the end of April and into May ?
For discussion on all of those topics and a whole lot more , tune-in to the interview in its entirety .

Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders interviewed by Half Dollar of Silver Doctors
Silver and the junior miners may not be the hottest sector around right now, but they will be once the stock market reaches its bottom. When will that be, and what can we expect?
Chris Vermeulen joins us today to discuss all of the latest action in the markets, from a professional, technical trader’s point of view.
During this deep dive into the markets, we discuss the stock market, silver, gold, the mining sector, oil, the US dollar, the fundamentals versus the technicals, and a whole lot more.
Is the US stock market in a suckers’ rally?
The precious metals sector is about to become the hottest sector of the markets?
What’s Chris seeing in the silver charts?
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What kind of opportunities are there in the precious metals sector?
Is it good to sit out the markets, and what about staying on the sidelines with cash?
What in the world is going on in the energy sector?
How are some of the ways Chris moves in and out of markets that are now so volatile?
What’s on the radar as we move into the end of April and into May?
For discussion on all of those topics and a whole lot more, tune-in to the interview in its entirety.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Sheriffs in Michigan announce they will not enforce stay-at-home order

Four sheriffs in Michigan announced Wednesday that they will not enforce parts of the restrictive COVID-19 stay-at-home order recently issued @ @ @ @ @ ( D ) , after the officers concluded that Whitmer may be pushing the bounds @ @ @ @ @ We write today to inform the public for our respective counties of our opposition to @ @ @ @ @ s executive orders , ” the four sheriffs wrote in a letter posted to Twitter @ @ @ @ @ her desire to protect the public , we question some restrictions that she has imposed @ @ @ @ @ ” The letter is signed by Leelanau County Sheriff Mike Borkovich , Benzie County Sheriff @ @ @ @ @ Sheriff Ken Falk , and Mason County Sheriff Kim Cole .
“ We will deal @ @ @ @ @ individual situation and apply common sense in assessing the apparent violation , ” they said @ @ @ @ @ proper social distancing but questioning the repressive nature of the directive .

Four sheriffs in Michigan announced Wednesday that they will not enforce parts of the restrictive COVID-19 stay-at-home order recently issued by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), after the officers concluded that Whitmer may be pushing the bounds of her position.
“We write today to inform the public for our respective counties of our opposition to some of Governor Whitmer’s executive orders,” the four sheriffs wrote in a letter posted to Twitter. “While we understand her desire to protect the public, we question some restrictions that she has imposed as overstepping her executive authority.”
The letter is signed by Leelanau County Sheriff Mike Borkovich, Benzie County Sheriff Ted Schendel, Mainstee County Sheriff Ken Falk, and Mason County Sheriff Kim Cole. “We will deal with every case as an individual situation and apply common sense in assessing the apparent violation,” they said, emphasizing the importance of proper social distancing but questioning the repressive nature of the directive.
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MORE:
reason.com/2020/04/15/michigans-emergency-stay-at-home-order-is-a-hot-mess-now-4-sheriffs-say-they-wont-be-enforcing-parts-of-it/


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--COVID-19 is a harsh teacher. Let’s learn from it.

Summary : COVID-19 teaches us about the propaganda and arrogance that hobble us .
The cost in lives and money might be worthwhile if we learn from it and make a better America .
This “ it ’ s China ’ s fault ” campaign ( details here and here ) is eerily similar to the hysteria whipped up – manufactured – by the US government against Iraq before the 2003 invasion .
The press were uncritical cheerleaders .
Much of the US public became a mob ( or more accurately , a flock ) .
Calmer voices pointed out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we were being manipulated .
Manipulated again , as we were with the Tonkin Gulf incident and the invasion of Afghanistan ( 9/11 was plotted in Germany , with training in Florida ) .
The same tactics are being used against us again .
Again with equally obvious motives – to arouse people against a new Cold War foe ( to justify our massive military spending ) and distract people ’ s attention from the massive failures of the Trump administration during the COVID-19 epidemic .
The saddest aspect of these campaigns is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Can a people so easily manipulated and so unwilling to learn from experience govern themselves ?
Many climate scientists have been vocal during the pandemic , with unsolicited offers of their expertise .
For instance , in this article by James Annan ( h/t to Climate Etc ) .
Here is the money paragraph .
“ We have been doing a very straightforward MCMC calibration of a simple SEIR model ( equivalent of energy balance box model in climate science , pretty much ) .
The basic concept is to use the model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths back through the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R. It ’ s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts ( in the UK at least ) are doing this .
I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for , if not this sort of thing ?
They should have been all over this like a rash.
” Well , something here is like a “ rash.
” When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experts are not doing what seems obvious to him , it probably means that he should ask an expert and dial down the self-confidence .
In the climate wars , such statements often precede “ analysis ” showing that there is no greenhouse effect or that the world is totally doomed really soon .
The staff at CDC and WHO frequently discussed this issue that bemused Annan , explaining that R0 is of little use for laypeople .
It is a variable , not a model parameter in the sense Annan appears to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to calculate , R0 is complex .
It varies by circumstances and can change over time .
The CDC often cites a paper saying that it is “ easily misrepresented , misinterpreted , and misapplied.
” More broadly , there are many fields using quantitative models ( e.g.
, macroeconomics ) .
Personally , climate scientists are among the last I would consult .
The most obvious similarity of climate models to epidemiological models of COVID-19 is the Imperial College model made famous by Prof. Neil Ferguson .
Undocumented code , unvalidated , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and had a massive influence on UK public policy .
Although it now appears grossly flawed ( as seen in the “ actual results don ’ t matter ” justifications ) , it made him famous and resulted in a shower of grant money .
More broadly , the COVID-19 crisis has followed the same pattern as the public climate wars .
Experts are center stage .
Then they are displaced by a wider pool of authorities .
Then wild claims by laypeople dominate , displacing actual experts ( such as those at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate wars reached that point after 3 decades .
COVID-19 reached that stage in only 14 weeks , as claims that “ It Is China ’ s Fault ” increasingly dominate the news .
This suggests that our dysfunctional response to major crises results from deeper problems in our society .
If not fixed , we might have difficulty coping with more serious threats than COVID-19 .

by Fabius Maximus
Summary: COVID-19 teaches us about the propaganda and arrogance that hobble us. The cost in lives and money might be worthwhile if we learn from it and make a better America.
A nation lit only by propaganda
This “it’s China’s fault” campaign (details here and here) is eerily similar to the hysteria whipped up – manufactured – by the US government against Iraq before the 2003 invasion. The press were uncritical cheerleaders. Much of the US public became a mob (or more accurately, a flock). Calmer voices pointed out that the evidence was weak and that we were being manipulated. Manipulated again, as we were with the Tonkin Gulf incident and the invasion of Afghanistan (9/11 was plotted in Germany, with training in Florida).
The same tactics are being used against us again. Again with equally obvious motives – to arouse people against a new Cold War foe (to justify our massive military spending) and distract people’s attention from the massive failures of the Trump administration during the COVID-19 epidemic.
The saddest aspect of these campaigns is how easily our elites stage them. Can a people so easily manipulated and so unwilling to learn from experience govern themselves?
Climate Science to the rescue
Many climate scientists have been vocal during the pandemic, with unsolicited offers of their expertise. For instance, in this article by James Annan (h/t to Climate Etc). Here is the money paragraph.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“We have been doing a very straightforward MCMC calibration of a simple SEIR model (equivalent of energy balance box model in climate science, pretty much). The basic concept is to use the model to invert the time series of reported deaths back through the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R. It’s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts (in the UK at least) are doing this. I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for, if not this sort of thing? They should have been all over this like a rash.”
Well, something here is like a “rash.” When a layperson is “bemused” that experts are not doing what seems obvious to him, it probably means that he should ask an expert and dial down the self-confidence. In the climate wars, such statements often precede “analysis” showing that there is no greenhouse effect or that the world is totally doomed really soon.
The staff at CDC and WHO frequently discussed this issue that bemused Annan, explaining that R0 is of little use for laypeople. It is a variable, not a model parameter in the sense Annan appears to use it. Rather than being simple to calculate, R0 is complex. It varies by circumstances and can change over time. The CDC often cites a paper saying that it is “easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied.”
More broadly, there are many fields using quantitative models (e.g., macroeconomics). Personally, climate scientists are among the last I would consult. The most obvious similarity of climate models to epidemiological models of COVID-19 is the Imperial College model made famous by Prof. Neil Ferguson. Undocumented code, unvalidated, lacking peer-review – but it made headlines and had a massive influence on UK public policy. Although it now appears grossly flawed (as seen in the “actual results don’t matter” justifications), it made him famous and resulted in a shower of grant money.
More broadly, the COVID-19 crisis has followed the same pattern as the public climate wars. Experts are center stage. Then they are displaced by a wider pool of authorities. Then wild claims by laypeople dominate, displacing actual experts (such as those at the IPCC and WHO). The climate wars reached that point after 3 decades. COVID-19 reached that stage in only 14 weeks, as claims that “It Is China’s Fault” increasingly dominate the news. This suggests that our dysfunctional response to major crises results from deeper problems in our society. If not fixed, we might have difficulty coping with more serious threats than COVID-19.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Think Leverage, The Economic Plan Was To Get Leverage Over The [CB]

The [ CB ] has now pushed the country to the edge , the patriots are now countering it with @ @ @ @ @ ] .
The plan was about gaining leverage , to bring companies back to the @ @ @ @ @ necessary .
This leverage is undoing they have done to the US economy since 1913 @ @ @ @ @ /MSM/D ’ s plan has failed , Trump is getting ready to open everything back @ @

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_naE9vPwctc
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The [CB] has now pushed the country to the edge, the patriots are now countering it with currency from the [CB]. The plan was about gaining leverage, to bring companies back to the US, by force if necessary. This leverage is undoing they have done to the US economy since 1913. The [DS]/MSM/D’s plan has failed, Trump is getting ready to open everything back up.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Danielle Park: Historically, Pandemics Lead to Deflation

Portfolio Manager , attorney , finance author , a regular guest on North American media .
Danielle Park is the @ @ @ @ @ myth-busting book “ Juggling Dynamite : An insider ’ s wisdom on money management , @ @ @ @ @ , ” as well as a popular daily financial blog : www.jugglingdynamite.com .
Danielle worked @ @ @ @ @ when she was recruited to work for an international securities firm .
A Chartered Financial @ @ @ @ @ she now helps to manage millions for some of North America ’ s wealthiest families @ @ @ @ @ analyst at the independent investment counsel firm she co-founded Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc. www.venablepark.com @ @ @ @ @ , Danielle has been writing , speaking and educating industry professionals and investors on the @ @ @ @ @ behaviors .
A member of the internationally recognized CFA Institute , Toronto Society of Financial @ @ @ @ @ Society of Upper Canada .
Danielle is also an avid health and fitness buff .

Talk Digital Network, Released on 4/16/20
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Portfolio Manager, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com. Danielle worked as an attorney until 1997 when she was recruited to work for an international securities firm. A Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), she now helps to manage millions for some of North America’s wealthiest families as a Portfolio Manager and analyst at the independent investment counsel firm she co-founded Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc. www.venablepark.com. Over the last decade, Danielle has been writing, speaking and educating industry professionals and investors on the risks and realities of financial behaviors. A member of the internationally recognized CFA Institute, Toronto Society of Financial Analysts, and the Law Society of Upper Canada. Danielle is also an avid health and fitness buff.


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Oil Demand Won’t Bounce Back Anytime Soon

Oil demand is expected to be down by nearly 30 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) in April and down by almost 10 mb/d for the entire year , according to the latest estimates .
But some forecasts still optimistically assume that demand bounces back in the second half of the year , a scenario that may not come to pass .
Since February , investment banks repeatedly revised down their numbers with each passing week .
It took until April for the consensus to arrive at a temporary demand hit of 25 to 30 mb/d .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebounds after the second quarter in a “ V-shaped ” recovery .
For example , the IEA ’ s latest Oil Market Report , released on Wednesday , painted a dire portrait of global demand , but it nevertheless assumes that there is a resurgence in demand close to normal levels by the end of the year .
But there are multiple reasons why the global economy may not return to anything close to “ normal ” even by the end of 2020 .
One of the principle reasons should be an obvious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from over .
The rate of infections in Europe and in some parts of the U.S. has flattened , sparking calls to lift stay-at-home orders .
But glimmers of hope may be misleading .
“ The problem is that most countries have an overall infection penetration below 5 % .
The moment the restrictions are relaxed the daily infection rates will spike back up again , ” Bjarne Schieldrop , chief commodities analyst at SEB , said in a report .
“ Thus , rather than moving from ‘ deep-freeze lock-down ’ in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ in Q3 we are more likely going to move to ‘ semi-lock-down ’ as well as repeated start-stop , start-stop moves going forward as governments try to ease restrictions but then must pull back again as infection rates revives again , ” Schieldrop warned .
SEB agreed with the broader consensus that the low point for oil demand will be April and May .
But the bank said that demand won ’ t simply bounce back after that .
“ Covid-19 is basically still ahead of us .
The road to oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ muted than V-shaped , ” Schieldrop concluded .
Current WTI and Brent futures assume $ 40 per barrel in 2021 , based largely on the hopes of a V-shaped bounce back .
Schieldrop said that there is a “ high risk ” that the optimism surrounding a V-shaped recovery will be dashed in the next two months , which could reset price expectations for the next year or two .
The second reason why demand may not bounce back ( and obviously related to the first ) is that the global economy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump said the economy would “ boom ” once the lockdown measures are lifted .
But a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research says that U.S. GDP could contract by 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 , year-on-year .
The International Monetary Fund warned that the world is facing the worst downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s .
“ The magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes , ” Gita Gopinath , IMF chief economist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 22 million people filed for unemployment insurance in the last few weeks in the U.S. , and many of those jobs may not come back later this year .
Ultimately , economic activity may not rebound until a vaccine is readily available , or at least a robust system of testing that allows for a reopening of sections of the economy .
As the New York Times notes , there is data showing a hit to regional economies in the U.S. that in some cases preceded lockdown orders , evidence that people stayed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own , fearing the virus .
That means that simply lifting stay-at-home measures does not return the economy to “ normal.
” A lot of people will likely continue to stay home until they feel safe .
That is a message that CEOs of major businesses themselves made to President Trump on a conference call on Wednesday .

By Nick Cunningham
Oil demand is expected to be down by nearly 30 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April and down by almost 10 mb/d for the entire year, according to the latest estimates. But some forecasts still optimistically assume that demand bounces back in the second half of the year, a scenario that may not come to pass.
Since February, investment banks repeatedly revised down their numbers with each passing week. It took until April for the consensus to arrive at a temporary demand hit of 25 to 30 mb/d. However, many forecasts still assume the global economy rebounds after the second quarter in a “V-shaped” recovery.
For example, the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report, released on Wednesday, painted a dire portrait of global demand, but it nevertheless assumes that there is a resurgence in demand close to normal levels by the end of the year.
But there are multiple reasons why the global economy may not return to anything close to “normal” even by the end of 2020.
One of the principle reasons should be an obvious one – the global pandemic is far from over. The rate of infections in Europe and in some parts of the U.S. has flattened, sparking calls to lift stay-at-home orders. But glimmers of hope may be misleading. “The problem is that most countries have an overall infection penetration below 5%. The moment the restrictions are relaxed the daily infection rates will spike back up again,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a report.
“Thus, rather than moving from ‘deep-freeze lock-down’ in Q2 and then directly to ‘all-back-to-work’ in Q3 we are more likely going to move to ‘semi-lock-down’ as well as repeated start-stop, start-stop moves going forward as governments try to ease restrictions but then must pull back again as infection rates revives again,” Schieldrop warned.
SEB agreed with the broader consensus that the low point for oil demand will be April and May. But the bank said that demand won’t simply bounce back after that. “Covid-19 is basically still ahead of us. The road to oil demand normality may thus be much more muted than V-shaped,” Schieldrop concluded.
Current WTI and Brent futures assume $40 per barrel in 2021, based largely on the hopes of a V-shaped bounce back. Schieldrop said that there is a “high risk” that the optimism surrounding a V-shaped recovery will be dashed in the next two months, which could reset price expectations for the next year or two.
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The second reason why demand may not bounce back (and obviously related to the first) is that the global economy is in trouble. Just days ago President Trump said the economy would “boom” once the lockdown measures are lifted.
But a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research says that U.S. GDP could contract by 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, year-on-year.
The International Monetary Fund warned that the world is facing the worst downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. “The magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes,” Gita Gopinath, IMF chief economist, said this week.
An estimated 22 million people filed for unemployment insurance in the last few weeks in the U.S., and many of those jobs may not come back later this year.
Ultimately, economic activity may not rebound until a vaccine is readily available, or at least a robust system of testing that allows for a reopening of sections of the economy. As the New York Times notes, there is data showing a hit to regional economies in the U.S. that in some cases preceded lockdown orders, evidence that people stayed home and held back spending on their own, fearing the virus.
That means that simply lifting stay-at-home measures does not return the economy to “normal.” A lot of people will likely continue to stay home until they feel safe.
That is a message that CEOs of major businesses themselves made to President Trump on a conference call on Wednesday.
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Trump Opening America Again

Trump Opening America Again

President Trump played a very smart move against the FAKE NEWS contingent .
He outlined broad new federal guidelines for opening up the country that will put the onus on governors to decide how to restart the economies in their states amid mounting fallout from the coronavirus outbreak .
The federal guidance doesn ’ t set a specific timeline , and Trump wouldn ’ t hypothesize what the country will look like by milestone dates like Memorial Day , the Fourth of July and Labor Day .
But Trump predicted there are 29 states that can begin the opening soon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right away , though he didn ’ t name them .
We can easily see that the problem areas are New York , New Jersey , Pennsylvania , Connecticut , and Delaware , with Atlanta and New Orleans .
The rest of the country is minimally affected .
We could not ship out our books from Pennsylvania because of the draconian lockdown .
We had to have them trucked to Florida and they are now all out in the mail .
I had to laugh when Trump used the very reports claiming 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out by Neil Ferguson from Imperial College which received donations from Bill Gates to flip their negativity back on the press .
We did a great job , Trump said , and we are coming in with well under 100,000 deaths because he closed the borders .
It was sort of a mental martial arts contest using the force of your opponent against them .
Shifting the burden back to the governors was a brilliant move .
New York City , which under governor Andrew Cuomo just weeks ago was blaming Trump and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to handle a projected flood of critically ill COVID-19 patients that never appeared , now says things are going so well New York is shipping hundreds of ventilators to other states .
It ’ s always a question of who gets the blame .
Socrates was right .
COVID-19 would peak the week of April 6th .
Even back on March 11th , our cyclical models showed the peak would be April/May .
This was not some personal opinion or guess .
This was simply modeling the life-cycle of all viruses .
People @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18 months were doing so to support Bill Gates saying it would take 18 months for a vaccine that would be conveniently after the 2020 elections .
I watched the questions and you could see that they were all negative .
I watched the CBS version and they immediately had their analyst from the Associated Press who instantly began to try to tear Trump apart .
He said when the President claimed to have the authority to order the states to report , “ we knew that was wrong then ” and now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was wrong.
” Quite frankly , I am really disgusted with these people .
I have laid out under the Commerce Clause , there is absolutely NO authority for any governor to close down the economy of his state .
There are conspiracy theories that Trump handed all authority to FEMA and they can run a dictatorship .
Let me explain one thing : The Constitution is the Supreme Law of the Land .
The Supremacy Clause of the Constitution of the United States ( Article VI , Clause 2 ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made pursuant to it , and treaties made under its authority , constitute the “ supreme Law of the Land “ , and thus take priority over any conflicting state laws .
That means no matter what statutory authority Congress gave FEMA , it is unconstitutional if they ever tried to enforce such a dictatorship .
Likewise , no state governor can issue any order or pass a statute that is contrary to the Constitution – PERIOD !
Just for the record , enforcing the civil rights actions against the states during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the Supremacy Clause which enabled the federal government to force civil rights .
These journalists are outright wrong and they themselves are supporting Sedition by misrepresenting the Constitution .
The Supreme Court delivered four decisions on this subject : In Pennsylvania v. Nelson , 350 U.S. 497 ( 1956 ) the Supreme Court struck down the Pennsylvania Sedition Act , which made advocating the forceful overthrow of the federal government a crime under Pennsylvania state law when federal interest in an area of law is sufficiently dominant , federal law must be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the same subject .
In Reid v. Covert , 354 U.S. 1 ( 1957 ) , the Supreme Court held that international treaties and laws made pursuant to them must comply with the Constitution .
Not even the federal government could possibly write a treaty that circumvents the Constitution .
In Cooper v. Aaron , 358 U.S. 1 ( 1958 ) , the Supreme Court rejected attempts by Arkansas to nullify the Court ’ s school desegregation decision , Brown v. Board of Education which relied on Equal Protection under the Fourteenth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory of states ’ rights which could not nullify federal law .
In Edgar v. MITE Corp. , 457 U.S. 624 ( 1982 ) , the Supreme Court ruled : “ A state statute is void to the extent that it actually conflicts with a valid Federal statute ” .
I find it personally offensive for these journalists to harp on this nonsense that Trump was wrong when it is plainly the FAKE NEWS .
What Trump has done was political .
The draconian measures being carried out by each state will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election – not Trump .
Then we will probably see these horrible corrupt journalists flip it around and blame the lockdowns and loss of local jobs like in New York on Trump in time for the 2020 elections .
Personally , I believe they are carrying out Sedition against the United States .
Trump has absolute authority to reopen the country because there is NO Constitutional Authority to have ordered a lockdown , to begin with .
This idea of flattening the curve is only a THEORY and there is no evidence that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no different than Keynesian Economics with Quantitative Easing which has failed .
The attempt to flatten the curve CAN NOT defeat the energy of any cycle .
All you will do is prolong it .
The likelihood of this returning in the fall is probably better than 90 % .
The real threat is once this power has been seized by governments and it remains unchallenged , it will be used again and again in the future .
Trump made it very clear , there was NEVER a bed capacity problem .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they were not used .
He had the Army Core of Engineers build beds in stadiums – they were never filled .
The entire theory we needed to be locked down because there were not enough beds was totally BOGUS !
!
!
!
!
When is the press going to point this out ?
We have been lied to and why ?
Where is the journalist willing to tell the truth just once !
This is the CDC ’ s own graph showed bed capacity was the justification for the lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was wrong , but not a single word about this chart to justify the lockdown , to begin with , will ever appear in main-stream media .

by Martin Armstrong
President Trump played a very smart move against the FAKE NEWS contingent. He outlined broad new federal guidelines for opening up the country that will put the onus on governors to decide how to restart the economies in their states amid mounting fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. The federal guidance doesn’t set a specific timeline, and Trump wouldn’t hypothesize what the country will look like by milestone dates like Memorial Day, the Fourth of July and Labor Day. But Trump predicted there are 29 states that can begin the opening soon and several that could start the process right away, though he didn’t name them.
We can easily see that the problem areas are New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Delaware, with Atlanta and New Orleans. The rest of the country is minimally affected. We could not ship out our books from Pennsylvania because of the draconian lockdown. We had to have them trucked to Florida and they are now all out in the mail.
I had to laugh when Trump used the very reports claiming 2 million Americans would die which was put out by Neil Ferguson from Imperial College which received donations from Bill Gates to flip their negativity back on the press. We did a great job, Trump said, and we are coming in with well under 100,000 deaths because he closed the borders. It was sort of a mental martial arts contest using the force of your opponent against them.
Shifting the burden back to the governors was a brilliant move. New York City, which under governor Andrew Cuomo just weeks ago was blaming Trump and pleading that it would need 40,000 ventilators to handle a projected flood of critically ill COVID-19 patients that never appeared, now says things are going so well New York is shipping hundreds of ventilators to other states. It’s always a question of who gets the blame.
Socrates was right. COVID-19 would peak the week of April 6th. Even back on March 11th, our cyclical models showed the peak would be April/May. This was not some personal opinion or guess. This was simply modeling the life-cycle of all viruses. People who were saying this could last for 18 months were doing so to support Bill Gates saying it would take 18 months for a vaccine that would be conveniently after the 2020 elections.
I watched the questions and you could see that they were all negative. I watched the CBS version and they immediately had their analyst from the Associated Press who instantly began to try to tear Trump apart. He said when the President claimed to have the authority to order the states to report, “we knew that was wrong then” and now he deferred to the Governors “proving he was wrong.” Quite frankly, I am really disgusted with these people.
I have laid out under the Commerce Clause, there is absolutely NO authority for any governor to close down the economy of his state. There are conspiracy theories that Trump handed all authority to FEMA and they can run a dictatorship. Let me explain one thing: The Constitution is the Supreme Law of the Land. The Supremacy Clause of the Constitution of the United States (Article VI, Clause 2), establishes that the Constitution, federal laws made pursuant to it, and treaties made under its authority, constitute the “supreme Law of the Land“, and thus take priority over any conflicting state laws.
That means no matter what statutory authority Congress gave FEMA, it is unconstitutional if they ever tried to enforce such a dictatorship. Likewise, no state governor can issue any order or pass a statute that is contrary to the Constitution – PERIOD!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Just for the record, enforcing the civil rights actions against the states during the 1960s which were suppressing blacks, it was the Supremacy Clause which enabled the federal government to force civil rights. These journalists are outright wrong and they themselves are supporting Sedition by misrepresenting the Constitution. The Supreme Court delivered four decisions on this subject:
In Pennsylvania v. Nelson, 350 U.S. 497 (1956) the Supreme Court struck down the Pennsylvania Sedition Act, which made advocating the forceful overthrow of the federal government a crime under Pennsylvania state law when federal interest in an area of law is sufficiently dominant, federal law must be assumed to preclude enforcement of state laws on the same subject.
In Reid v. Covert, 354 U.S. 1 (1957), the Supreme Court held that international treaties and laws made pursuant to them must comply with the Constitution. Not even the federal government could possibly write a treaty that circumvents the Constitution.
In Cooper v. Aaron, 358 U.S. 1 (1958), the Supreme Court rejected attempts by Arkansas to nullify the Court’s school desegregation decision, Brown v. Board of Education which relied on Equal Protection under the Fourteenth Amendment. Arkansas, acted under the theory of states’ rights which could not nullify federal law.
In Edgar v. MITE Corp., 457 U.S. 624 (1982), the Supreme Court ruled: “A state statute is void to the extent that it actually conflicts with a valid Federal statute”.
I find it personally offensive for these journalists to harp on this nonsense that Trump was wrong when it is plainly the FAKE NEWS. What Trump has done was political. The draconian measures being carried out by each state will be attributable to the governor for the 2020 election – not Trump. Then we will probably see these horrible corrupt journalists flip it around and blame the lockdowns and loss of local jobs like in New York on Trump in time for the 2020 elections. Personally, I believe they are carrying out Sedition against the United States.
Trump has absolute authority to reopen the country because there is NO Constitutional Authority to have ordered a lockdown, to begin with. This idea of flattening the curve is only a THEORY and there is no evidence that this would even work. It is no different than Keynesian Economics with Quantitative Easing which has failed. The attempt to flatten the curve CANNOT defeat the energy of any cycle. All you will do is prolong it. The likelihood of this returning in the fall is probably better than 90%. The real threat is once this power has been seized by governments and it remains unchallenged, it will be used again and again in the future.
Trump made it very clear, there was NEVER a bed capacity problem. He sent hospital ships to New York, but they were not used. He had the Army Core of Engineers build beds in stadiums – they were never filled. The entire theory we needed to be locked down because there were not enough beds was totally BOGUS!!!!! When is the press going to point this out? We have been lied to and why? Where is the journalist willing to tell the truth just once! This is the CDC’s own graph showed bed capacity was the justification for the lockdown. The press bash Trump claiming he was wrong, but not a single word about this chart to justify the lockdown, to begin with, will ever appear in main-stream media.
Selective Fake News!


investmentwatchblog--2020-04-17--Abuse, Fraud & Inequity: Standard Operating Procedure In The Unfairness Economy

Award-winning investigative journalist Matt Taibbi penned perhaps the most iconic condemnation of the bankers who created ( and subsequently got bailed out during ) the Great Financial Crisis : “ The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it ’ s everywhere .
The world ’ s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity , relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.
” Ten years later , we find ourselves facing another crisis which , while triggered by the coronavirus instead of housing loans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system made vulnerable by the unfair plunder of big banks and hedge funds — who are now being bailed out at vastly higher expense than in 2008 .
Sadly , it seems we ’ ve learned very little over the past decade .
And as $ trillions and $ trillions in “ rescue ” stimulus are starting to be deployed by Congress and the Federal Reserve , it ’ s once again the financial power elite and corporate boardroom bigwigs who are receiving immediate and complete relief from the consequences of their actions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you and me get ?
Crumbs , if anything .
And as taxpayers , we ’ re ultimately footing the bill ( once again ) .
Given his intensive knowledge of the inner workings of Wall Street and its entanglement with the DC political machine , Taibbi explains how the inequity , abuse and fraud in today ’ s “ Unfairness Economy ” has become standard operating procedure — and will remain so until a serious enough social uprising takes place .

by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity
Award-winning investigative journalist Matt Taibbi penned perhaps the most iconic condemnation of the bankers who created (and subsequently got bailed out during) the Great Financial Crisis:
“The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it’s everywhere. The world’s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
Ten years later, we find ourselves facing another crisis which, while triggered by the coronavirus instead of housing loans, has similar roots in a financial system made vulnerable by the unfair plunder of big banks and hedge funds — who are now being bailed out at vastly higher expense than in 2008.
Sadly, it seems we’ve learned very little over the past decade.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And as $trillions and $trillions in “rescue” stimulus are starting to be deployed by Congress and the Federal Reserve, it’s once again the financial power elite and corporate boardroom bigwigs who are receiving immediate and complete relief from the consequences of their actions.
But what will regular folks like you and me get? Crumbs, if anything.
And as taxpayers, we’re ultimately footing the bill (once again).
Given his intensive knowledge of the inner workings of Wall Street and its entanglement with the DC political machine, Taibbi explains how the inequity, abuse and fraud in today’s “Unfairness Economy” has become standard operating procedure — and will remain so until a serious enough social uprising takes place.