investmentwatchblog--2020-09-07--Roaring 20’s or 1930’s? Markets Are Ignoring Global Economic Meltdown

The economy and the stock market are largely disconnected .
For some people , life is quite similar .
No major changes .
Still employed , same hours , same scenario .
But for millions , without the ballooning safety net provided by the government , they would starve .
The stock market has risen considerably which of course is largely owned by a smaller group of people .
Those people are enjoying the appreciation of their assets while the bulk of the population struggles to persist .
U.S. is still in a ‘ very significant recession ’ despite job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy ( 13 ) Sven Henrich on Twitter : “ I repeat : New highs in select indices have been highly deceiving .
They were driven by a few mega cap stocks .
The $ XVG index suggests a border market still in a bear market .
Based on that measure $ SPX would be trading at 2,600 were it not for mega cap expansions in 6/7 stocks .
t.co/UFSi7HchgD ” / @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ Speculative options trading reached the equivalent of 12 % of NYSE volume last week .
Like some combustible combo of musical chairs , Russian roulette , and five finger fillet .
How many traders can dance upon the head of a pin ?
t.co/nsCeyKH093 ” / Twitter ( 13 ) Jesse Felder on Twitter : “ ‘ There are a handful of quant funds pushing around a few stocks in the options markets .
The dealers are getting very nervous .
How short is the Street gamma ?
VERY.
’ t.co/Wp5DG4zILC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ The Notion That US Debt Can Ever Be Paid Back is Ridiculous ’ , Analyst Says – Sputnik International 52 % of young adults in US are living with their parents amid COVID-19 | Pew Research Center Amazon Drivers Say Smartphones-In-Trees Scheme Has Been Thwarted – Bloomberg

The economy and the stock market are largely disconnected. For some people, life is quite similar. No major changes. Still employed, same hours, same scenario. But for millions, without the ballooning safety net provided by the government, they would starve. The stock market has risen considerably which of course is largely owned by a smaller group of people. Those people are enjoying the appreciation of their assets while the bulk of the population struggles to persist.
U.S. is still in a ‘very significant recession’ despite job gains, Fed’s Rosengren says
www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/us-is-still-in-a-very-significant-recession-despite-job-gains-feds-rosengren-says.html
106691005-1599224748044-20200904_where_the_jobs_are_august_2020.png (740×407)
image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106691005-1599224748044-20200904_where_the_jobs_are_august_2020.png?v=1599224753&w=740&h=407
Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy
www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.html
Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy
www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.html
(13) Sven Henrich on Twitter: “I repeat: New highs in select indices have been highly deceiving. They were driven by a few mega cap stocks. The $XVG index suggests a border market still in a bear market. Based on that measure $SPX would be trading at 2,600 were it not for mega cap expansions in 6/7 stocks. t.co/UFSi7HchgD” / Twitter
twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1301935910683054081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1301935910683054081%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmere-flesh-wound-or-beginning-end-bull-bounce
(13) SentimenTrader on Twitter: “Speculative options trading reached the equivalent of 12% of NYSE volume last week. Like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet. How many traders can dance upon the head of a pin? t.co/nsCeyKH093” / Twitter
twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1299678476950278144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1299678476950278144%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fspeculative-feeding-frenzy-weve-never-seen
(13) Jesse Felder on Twitter: “‘There are a handful of quant funds pushing around a few stocks in the options markets. The dealers are getting very nervous. How short is the Street gamma? VERY.’ t.co/Wp5DG4zILC by @Convertbond t.co/jNjPNEHJOS” / Twitter
twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1301196256119787527?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1301196256119787527%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fspeculative-feeding-frenzy-weve-never-seen
SP500-2-Devations-Chart-082620.png (711×408)
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realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/SP500-2-Devations-Chart-082620.png
SP500-MarketUpdate-090420.png (983×723)
realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/SP500-MarketUpdate-090420.png
‘The Notion That US Debt Can Ever Be Paid Back is Ridiculous’, Analyst Says – Sputnik International
sputniknews.com/analysis/202009051080375191-the-notion-that-us-debt-can-ever-be-paid-back-is-ridiculous-analyst-says/
Robinhood, Schwab Outages Triggered by Apple, Tesla Splits
www.bloombergquint.com/business/robinhood-schwab-outages-triggered-by-apple-tesla-splits#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20It%20was%20an,t%20use%20their%20brokerage%20accounts.
52% of young adults in US are living with their parents amid COVID-19 | Pew Research Center
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/
ft_2020.09.04_livingwithparents_02.png (640×843)
www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ft_2020.09.04_livingwithparents_02.png?w=640
Amazon Drivers Say Smartphones-In-Trees Scheme Has Been Thwarted – Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-04/amazon-drivers-say-smartphones-in-trees-scheme-has-been-thwarted
EVRz6rxXkAITwca.jpg (1200×640)
pbs.twimg.com/media/EVRz6rxXkAITwca.jpg


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-07--PANIC! After Taking Nosedive In The Polls, Biden Spends $45 Million On Ads ‘Condemning’ Riots

Clayton Kierns from Trending Politics reports , After months of turning a blind eye to destructive riots at the hands @ @ @ @ @ Biden campaign is changing their tune due to their tanking poll numbers .
According to @ @ @ @ @ the fledgling political operation has turned Biden ’ s recent Pittsburgh speech “ condemning ” @ @ @ @ @ , and they ’ re going to throw some big money at it .

Clayton Kierns from Trending Politics reports, After months of turning a blind eye to destructive riots at the hands of left-wing anarchists, the Biden campaign is changing their tune due to their tanking poll numbers. According to ABC reporter Johnny Verhovek, the fledgling political operation has turned Biden’s recent Pittsburgh speech “condemning” violence into a TV ad, and they’re going to throw some big money at it.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Read More/Source/Credit/FairUse:
trendingpolitics.com/panic-bi…


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--Seattle To Be Hit By A Giant Tsunami 2 Hours And 20 Minutes After “The Big One” Strikes The Cascadia

Seattle To Be Hit By A Giant Tsunami 2 Hours And 20 Minutes After “The Big One” Strikes The Cascadia Subduction Zone

A giant tsunami along the west coast has been very heavy on my heart for the last 24 hours , and then when I saw a new Fox News article about a simulation that was just run by officials in Washington state I knew that I had to write an article .
Experts at the Washington Department of Natural Resources decided to simulate what would happen if a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck along the Cascadia Subduction Zone , and what they discovered is really , really bad .
Such a seismic event would produce an absolutely massive tsunami , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ could reach Seattle in 2 hours and 20 minutes after an earthquake ” .
And this is not just a hypothetical scenario that may or may not happen .
Scientists have repeatedly warned us that it is just a matter of time before such a disaster takes place , Steve Quayle has been relentlessly warning about this as well , and I have been encouraging people to move away from the region for years .
If you think that you will just be able to hop into your vehicle and escape the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delusional .
The highways will instantly become crammed with countless others that have the exact same idea , and they will become deathtraps .
Of course if the quake happens in the middle of the night , most people will never have any idea that the tsunami is coming .
From the moment the earthquake happens , it will be just “ 15 to 20 minutes ” before the initial wave starts hitting the outer coast… The simulations show there are some locations around the state where residents would have very little — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ onslaught of floodwaters because of the speed of the wave .
In the videos , the initial wave could hit the state ’ s outer coast in 15 to 20 minutes after the ground starts shaking and the quake generates a tsunami .
You can watch a YouTube video of the simulation that was performed right here .
If such an event happened tomorrow , the death and destruction would be unimaginable .
Oregon State University paleoseismologist Chris Goldfinger believes that the Cascadia Subduction Zone could potentially produce an earthquake that is “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything that the San Andreas Fault could produce .
In a worst case scenario , Goldfinger says that a quake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone could create a colossal wall of water up to 100 feet high that would smash everything in front of it… The tsunami would bring water 20 to 80 – maybe even 100 – feet higher than today ’ s high tides .
Most of the structures that have survived the killer quake but built too low will be smashed into by a devastating wall of water .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the one after that higher still .
It won ’ t just be the water causing destruction , but everything it picks up .
Goldfinger described what would happen all around and on the spit of land where CBN News interviewed him in the middle of Newport , Oregon ’ s Yaquina Bay , a few hundred yards from the Pacific .
“ Then suddenly you ’ ve got a bay full of fishing boats , refrigerators , cars and everything else , ” Goldfinger explained .
“ And it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s just kind of sloshing back and forth.
” We all remember watching the tsunami that the Fukushima earthquake in Japan caused .
Well , an event of this nature would be far , far more destructive .
The following is what Steve Quayle once had to say about the amount of damage that we could potentially witness… “ The amount of damage , and I am going to choose my words carefully , is going to be precedent setting .
It ’ s going to be the combination of volcanos going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ zone where the plates meet , coupled with tsunamis .
.
.
.
When this happens , you will lose eight million to twenty million people .
When it happens , you will lose all productivity in the electronic field , obviously Silicon Valley , and all food production in all of California , Oregon and Washington .
When it happens , you will have a State of Emergency unlike any other .
How about the refugees ?
There will be 3.5 million refugees to take care of .
When this happens , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and where does everybody go for fresh water ?
There will be years of drought , years of famine and years of water , water where did it all go ?
It is a very dire situation painted by computer models .
This is not a sensational thing .
It is a reality based , scientific study with the application of what happens.
” Others have issued similar warnings .
In a previous article , I shared what the head of FEMA ’ s Region X once told the New Yorker… If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture , the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2 .
That ’ s the very big one .
…By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded , the region will be unrecognizable .
Kenneth Murphy , who directs FEMA ’ s Region X , the division responsible for Oregon , Washington , Idaho , and Alaska , says , “ Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.
” In the Pacific Northwest , everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and forty thousand square miles , including Seattle , Tacoma , Portland , Eugene , Salem ( the capital city of Oregon ) , Olympia ( the capital of Washington ) , and some seven million people .
If you live in that area of the country or you know people that do , please read those paragraphs again .
“ Everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast ” is a quote that I will never forget .
I have tried to do my best to warn people that this is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and in my new book I share warnings from many others about a giant tsunami that will strike the west coast .
Of course most people that live on the west coast are not interested in such warnings , and one day time will suddenly run out .
But nobody will be able to say that they weren ’ t warned .
Experts have been assuring us that such a disaster is in our future for many years , and this new Fox News article is just the latest example .
Like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is very heavy on my heart right now , and so I wrote this article .
My hope is that it will get to everyone that needs to see it .

by Michael Snyder
A giant tsunami along the west coast has been very heavy on my heart for the last 24 hours, and then when I saw a new Fox News article about a simulation that was just run by officials in Washington state I knew that I had to write an article. Experts at the Washington Department of Natural Resources decided to simulate what would happen if a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, and what they discovered is really, really bad. Such a seismic event would produce an absolutely massive tsunami, and the Fox News article says that waves “could reach Seattle in 2 hours and 20 minutes after an earthquake”. And this is not just a hypothetical scenario that may or may not happen. Scientists have repeatedly warned us that it is just a matter of time before such a disaster takes place, Steve Quayle has been relentlessly warning about this as well, and I have been encouraging people to move away from the region for years.
If you think that you will just be able to hop into your vehicle and escape the oncoming tsunami, you are just being delusional. The highways will instantly become crammed with countless others that have the exact same idea, and they will become deathtraps.
Of course if the quake happens in the middle of the night, most people will never have any idea that the tsunami is coming. From the moment the earthquake happens, it will be just “15 to 20 minutes” before the initial wave starts hitting the outer coast…
The simulations show there are some locations around the state where residents would have very little — if any — time to escape the onslaught of floodwaters because of the speed of the wave. In the videos, the initial wave could hit the state’s outer coast in 15 to 20 minutes after the ground starts shaking and the quake generates a tsunami.
You can watch a YouTube video of the simulation that was performed right here. If such an event happened tomorrow, the death and destruction would be unimaginable.
Oregon State University paleoseismologist Chris Goldfinger believes that the Cascadia Subduction Zone could potentially produce an earthquake that is “almost 30 times more energetic” than anything that the San Andreas Fault could produce. In a worst case scenario, Goldfinger says that a quake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone could create a colossal wall of water up to 100 feet high that would smash everything in front of it…
The tsunami would bring water 20 to 80 – maybe even 100 – feet higher than today’s high tides. Most of the structures that have survived the killer quake but built too low will be smashed into by a devastating wall of water. And the next surge could be even higher, and the one after that higher still. It won’t just be the water causing destruction, but everything it picks up. Goldfinger described what would happen all around and on the spit of land where CBN News interviewed him in the middle of Newport, Oregon’s Yaquina Bay, a few hundred yards from the Pacific. “Then suddenly you’ve got a bay full of fishing boats, refrigerators, cars and everything else,” Goldfinger explained. “And it’s like a glacier of debris that’s just kind of sloshing back and forth.”
We all remember watching the tsunami that the Fukushima earthquake in Japan caused.
Well, an event of this nature would be far, far more destructive. The following is what Steve Quayle once had to say about the amount of damage that we could potentially witness…
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“The amount of damage, and I am going to choose my words carefully, is going to be precedent setting. It’s going to be the combination of volcanos going off that are inland from the subduction zone where the plates meet, coupled with tsunamis. . . . When this happens, you will lose eight million to twenty million people. When it happens, you will lose all productivity in the electronic field, obviously Silicon Valley, and all food production in all of California, Oregon and Washington. When it happens, you will have a State of Emergency unlike any other. How about the refugees? There will be 3.5 million refugees to take care of. When this happens, what happens to the underground aquifers, and where does everybody go for fresh water? There will be years of drought, years of famine and years of water, water where did it all go? It is a very dire situation painted by computer models. This is not a sensational thing. It is a reality based, scientific study with the application of what happens.”
Others have issued similar warnings. In a previous article, I shared what the head of FEMA’s Region X once told the New Yorker…
If the entire zone gives way at once, an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture, the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2. That’s the very big one. …By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people.
If you live in that area of the country or you know people that do, please read those paragraphs again.
“Everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast” is a quote that I will never forget.
I have tried to do my best to warn people that this is an event that is going to happen someday, and in my new book I share warnings from many others about a giant tsunami that will strike the west coast.
Of course most people that live on the west coast are not interested in such warnings, and one day time will suddenly run out.
But nobody will be able to say that they weren’t warned. Experts have been assuring us that such a disaster is in our future for many years, and this new Fox News article is just the latest example.
Like I said, this is a topic that is very heavy on my heart right now, and so I wrote this article. My hope is that it will get to everyone that needs to see it.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--Charities “Have Lost Billions” And 1 Out Of Every 5 Churches In America “May Not Survive”

Whenever a major economic downturn happens , churches and charities always get hit really hard .
Cutting back on giving is often the very first step that people take when it comes time to reduce expenditures , and that is extremely unfortunate .
But of course you can ’ t get blood out of a rock , and there are tens of millions of Americans that have lost jobs in 2020 and so they don ’ t have any extra money to give at this point .
Approximately 59 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment over the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absolutely massive lines at food banks all around the nation .
In such an environment , it was inevitable that there would be a collapse in charitable giving , and it is being reported that major U.S. charities have already “ lost billions in revenue ” … Charity organizations have lost billions in revenue during the pandemic , making the sector one of many to seek support from Congress at a time when negotiations over another COVID-19 relief package show little sign of a breakthrough .
Traditional methods of fundraising for charities — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all been canceled or significantly scaled back due to public health concerns .
What is ironic is that many of these charities actually serve the poor and unemployed , and so their services are in greater need than ever before at a time when their funding is rapidly drying up .
An organization that represents about 500 of these charities says that 83 percent of their members have reported that revenues are down in 2020… Of even greater concern is what is happening to churches all over America .
During the lockdowns , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ giving , and of course there are still some states that are putting very strict restrictions on church gatherings .
This has had an absolutely devastating impact on many church budgets , and there have been widespread cutbacks .
And even though most churches in the country are now meeting normally , giving is still way down in many areas because of the impact that the economic downturn is having .
We have never seen anything like this before , and things have already gotten so bad that Barna Group president David Kinnaman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 churches in America “ could be forced to shut their doors in the next 18 months ” … The president of the Barna Group says it ’ s possible as many as 1 in 5 churches may not survive the shutdowns and changes brought on by the COVID virus and could be forced to shut their doors in the next 18 months .
In an interview on NPR ’ s program “ Here And Now ” earlier this week , Barna Group president David Kinnaman said their surveys show confidence among pastors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic has declined from more than 70 percent in May to around 58 percent now .
Think about that for a moment .
20 percent of all U.S. churches gone – just like that .
Over the years , we have started to see Christians in the United States increasingly adopt an underground house church model , and I think that this crisis will accelerate that process .
During the boom years , many large churches went deep into debt to fund elaborate building programs that included bowling alleys , coffee bars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they didn ’ t necessarily need , and now that very hard times have arrived many of those churches will go belly up .
Sadly , this is just the beginning .
According to John Williams of shadowstats.com , if honest numbers were being used the unemployment rate in this country would currently be sitting at 28 percent .
And as I keep detailing week after week , more layoffs are constantly being announced .
There are certain industries that are simply being eviscerated right now .
For instance , check out what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Those numbers are so horrifying that they are hard to believe .
I know people that work in the oil industry , and those jobs can be extremely well paying .
But now much of the industry has completely shut down , and countless numbers of workers have been forced to file for unemployment .
In Wyoming , the oil industry has been at the core of the state ’ s economy since the 1800s , but in July the official rig count in the state actually fell to zero… We are in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and conditions are eventually going to get far , far worse than they are right now .
So that means that charitable giving will also be going down even more .
Because of what I do , I hear from a lot of ministries and Christian organizations .
So many of them are experiencing severe financial distress already , and we are still only in the very early chapters of this crisis .
If there are ministries and organizations that are doing great work that you regularly support , please try to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can .
In this hour , people are going to need hope , and they definitely are not going to get that from the government .
Unfortunately , so many bright lights that are giving hope to people are starting to go out , and that trend is only going to intensify as our economic problems become even more serious .

by Michael Snyder
Whenever a major economic downturn happens, churches and charities always get hit really hard. Cutting back on giving is often the very first step that people take when it comes time to reduce expenditures, and that is extremely unfortunate. But of course you can’t get blood out of a rock, and there are tens of millions of Americans that have lost jobs in 2020 and so they don’t have any extra money to give at this point. Approximately 59 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment over the past 24 weeks, and we are seeing absolutely massive lines at food banks all around the nation. In such an environment, it was inevitable that there would be a collapse in charitable giving, and it is being reported that major U.S. charities have already “lost billions in revenue”…
Charity organizations have lost billions in revenue during the pandemic, making the sector one of many to seek support from Congress at a time when negotiations over another COVID-19 relief package show little sign of a breakthrough. Traditional methods of fundraising for charities — concerts, festivals and galas — have all been canceled or significantly scaled back due to public health concerns.
What is ironic is that many of these charities actually serve the poor and unemployed, and so their services are in greater need than ever before at a time when their funding is rapidly drying up.
An organization that represents about 500 of these charities says that 83 percent of their members have reported that revenues are down in 2020…
Overall, 83 percent of charity organizations reported a decline in revenues during the pandemic, including a decline in earned revenue from events or other activities, and a reduction in individual giving and grants received, according to a recent survey by Independent Sector, which lobbies in Washington for about 500 nonprofits, foundations and corporate giving programs.
Of even greater concern is what is happening to churches all over America. During the lockdowns, many churches experienced a precipitous drop in giving, and of course there are still some states that are putting very strict restrictions on church gatherings. This has had an absolutely devastating impact on many church budgets, and there have been widespread cutbacks.
And even though most churches in the country are now meeting normally, giving is still way down in many areas because of the impact that the economic downturn is having.
We have never seen anything like this before, and things have already gotten so bad that Barna Group president David Kinnaman is projecting that 1 out of every 5 churches in America “could be forced to shut their doors in the next 18 months”…
The president of the Barna Group says it’s possible as many as 1 in 5 churches may not survive the shutdowns and changes brought on by the COVID virus and could be forced to shut their doors in the next 18 months. In an interview on NPR’s program “Here And Now” earlier this week, Barna Group president David Kinnaman said their surveys show confidence among pastors that their churches will make it through the pandemic has declined from more than 70 percent in May to around 58 percent now.
Think about that for a moment.
20 percent of all U.S. churches gone – just like that.
Over the years, we have started to see Christians in the United States increasingly adopt an underground house church model, and I think that this crisis will accelerate that process.
During the boom years, many large churches went deep into debt to fund elaborate building programs that included bowling alleys, coffee bars and all sorts of other amenities that they didn’t necessarily need, and now that very hard times have arrived many of those churches will go belly up.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Sadly, this is just the beginning. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were being used the unemployment rate in this country would currently be sitting at 28 percent. And as I keep detailing week after week, more layoffs are constantly being announced.
There are certain industries that are simply being eviscerated right now. For instance, check out what is happening to the U.S. oil industry…
Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the U.S., had 440 land rigs at the end of August last year, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly count. That number had shrunk to 104 this year. The story was the same in North Dakota, the second-largest oil-producing state: The rig count was down from 51 to 10, according to Baker Hughes.
Those numbers are so horrifying that they are hard to believe.
I know people that work in the oil industry, and those jobs can be extremely well paying. But now much of the industry has completely shut down, and countless numbers of workers have been forced to file for unemployment.
In Wyoming, the oil industry has been at the core of the state’s economy since the 1800s, but in July the official rig count in the state actually fell to zero…
And, in Wyoming, where the oil and gas industry is the state’s economic backbone, the rig count dropped to zero for one week in July for the first time since 1884, Pete Obermueller, executive director of the Petroleum Association of Wyoming Executive Director, told USA TODAY.
We are in the midst of a major economic nightmare, and conditions are eventually going to get far, far worse than they are right now.
So that means that charitable giving will also be going down even more.
Because of what I do, I hear from a lot of ministries and Christian organizations. So many of them are experiencing severe financial distress already, and we are still only in the very early chapters of this crisis.
If there are ministries and organizations that are doing great work that you regularly support, please try to keep supporting them for as long as you can.
In this hour, people are going to need hope, and they definitely are not going to get that from the government.
Unfortunately, so many bright lights that are giving hope to people are starting to go out, and that trend is only going to intensify as our economic problems become even more serious.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--My email inbox got flooded rapidly – it was a cover-up by a scammer making changes to my PayPal acco

My email inbox got flooded rapidly – it was a cover-up by a scammer making changes to my PayPal account

TL/DR – Mass emailed , it was a cover-up to hide changes to my PayPal account .
Could have lost tens of thousands of dollars .
This will be a fairly long story , but it relates to a scam I ’ ve never seen mentioned on here .
A few months ago I had just finished my work at around 10 am when my phone notifications blew up .
I looked and it said that I had approximately 100 new emails .
This was certainly out of the ordinary .
I immediately opened my email to check , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there were about 200 new emails .
Over the course of the next few minutes , approximately 400 emails had poured into my inbox .
All of these emails seemed to be introduction emails to some sort of service or product – but all different .
Never the same one twice .
They were all mostly “ Thanks for signing up for BLANK.
” This would be the kind of email you get when you want to receive more information about a product or subscribe to an email list .
None of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were varied .
Sometimes it would congratulate “ Steve ” for signing up for something , other times “ Robert.
” There or approximately 50 different names .
At first , I simply thought that my email had gotten on to some list that blasted emails to various services hoping I would sign up for one .
However , something really didn ’ t seem right .
I decided I needed to go through my entire inbox and look for anything that seemed out of the ordinary .
Since all these emails were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for anything that DID seem legit .
Low and behold , about halfway through , I spotted an email from PayPal .
I clicked on it , and it was indeed an email from PayPal letting me know that an authorized user had been added to my account .
I hadn ’ t logged into my PayPal that day ( though I do use PayPal regularly for invoicing clients ) , so I knew this was not a change I made .
I immediately logged into PayPal , half expecting not to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , it did let me log in , but I could not see any suspicious purchases at all .
I found the “ Manage Users ” section of my account and did see one authorized user .
Here is the thing , the authorized user did not look suspicious .
It was my name .
Actually , it was my middle name , which is the name that I use for my PayPal business account .
My PayPal is under my first name , but my clients see my middle name .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong , but something still didn ’ t seem right .
I hadn ’ t added any authorized users .
The details are a bit fuzzy here because this was a few months ago , but from what I remember , the phone number for the authorized user was not mine .
While they used my name , they had their number .
Maybe it wasn ’ t their number , but I still knew I hadn ’ t made any changes .
I immediately called PayPal and got through to customer service @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through to their security team because they thought something was suspicious as well .
The PayPal security team said that an IP address from somewhere in another part of the country logged into my account and just added an authorized user .
While on the phone , the PayPal security team told me to delete the authorized user , change my password , and recommended enabling two-factor authentication .
From the moment I got all of the emails to the moment I was on the phone with PayPal security , the time frame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the scammer was going to play the long game on me , but because I took the time to look through all the emails and notice something was wrong , they never had the chance .
My PayPal account balance hovers around $ 200 at any given moment , but it handles tens of thousands of dollars of transfers per month for my business .
I always transfer this to my bank account quickly because…because PayPal .
Had I not noticed something amiss , they could have waited until one of my larger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my money .
Long story short , if you get blasted with hundreds of emails at once , look through every single one of them to see if something seems legitimate .
All of those emails are probably a cover-up for something related to your finances .

by AllenWatson23
TL/DR – Mass emailed, it was a cover-up to hide changes to my PayPal account. Could have lost tens of thousands of dollars.
This will be a fairly long story, but it relates to a scam I’ve never seen mentioned on here. A few months ago I had just finished my work at around 10 am when my phone notifications blew up. I looked and it said that I had approximately 100 new emails. This was certainly out of the ordinary. I immediately opened my email to check, and by the time I got in there, there were about 200 new emails. Over the course of the next few minutes, approximately 400 emails had poured into my inbox.
All of these emails seemed to be introduction emails to some sort of service or product – but all different. Never the same one twice. They were all mostly “Thanks for signing up for BLANK.” This would be the kind of email you get when you want to receive more information about a product or subscribe to an email list. None of the names were correct, and they were varied. Sometimes it would congratulate “Steve” for signing up for something, other times “Robert.” There or approximately 50 different names. At first, I simply thought that my email had gotten on to some list that blasted emails to various services hoping I would sign up for one. However, something really didn’t seem right.
I decided I needed to go through my entire inbox and look for anything that seemed out of the ordinary. Since all these emails were not really legitimate, I started looking for anything that DID seem legit. Low and behold, about halfway through, I spotted an email from PayPal. I clicked on it, and it was indeed an email from PayPal letting me know that an authorized user had been added to my account. I hadn’t logged into my PayPal that day (though I do use PayPal regularly for invoicing clients), so I knew this was not a change I made.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
I immediately logged into PayPal, half expecting not to be able to log in at all. However, it did let me log in, but I could not see any suspicious purchases at all. I found the “Manage Users” section of my account and did see one authorized user. Here is the thing, the authorized user did not look suspicious. It was my name. Actually, it was my middle name, which is the name that I use for my PayPal business account. My PayPal is under my first name, but my clients see my middle name. I almost closed out thinking nothing was wrong, but something still didn’t seem right. I hadn’t added any authorized users.
The details are a bit fuzzy here because this was a few months ago, but from what I remember, the phone number for the authorized user was not mine. While they used my name, they had their number. Maybe it wasn’t their number, but I still knew I hadn’t made any changes. I immediately called PayPal and got through to customer service. They immediately agreed to put me through to their security team because they thought something was suspicious as well. The PayPal security team said that an IP address from somewhere in another part of the country logged into my account and just added an authorized user. While on the phone, the PayPal security team told me to delete the authorized user, change my password, and recommended enabling two-factor authentication.
From the moment I got all of the emails to the moment I was on the phone with PayPal security, the time frame was only 15 minutes. I think the scammer was going to play the long game on me, but because I took the time to look through all the emails and notice something was wrong, they never had the chance. My PayPal account balance hovers around $200 at any given moment, but it handles tens of thousands of dollars of transfers per month for my business. I always transfer this to my bank account quickly because…because PayPal. Had I not noticed something amiss, they could have waited until one of my larger invoices came through and drained me of my money.
Long story short, if you get blasted with hundreds of emails at once, look through every single one of them to see if something seems legitimate. All of those emails are probably a cover-up for something related to your finances.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--State of Emergency In Multiple California Counties, Rolling Blackouts As Record Heat Scorches Cali

At least 15,000 firefighters have been battling 23 wildfires raging across the Golden State , according to the California Department @ @ @ @ @ ( CalFire ) .
Of these , three were deemed “ major blazes ” , @ @ @ @ @ Bernardino , and San Diego counties.-

At least 15,000 firefighters have been battling 23 wildfires raging across the Golden State, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire).
Of these, three were deemed “major blazes”, burning in Fresno, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties.-
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Learn More:
www.zerohedge.com/commodities…


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--VIDEO: Joe Biden Caught Using a Teleprompter While Responding to Being Questioned on the Issues

Joe Biden is relying on a teleprompter to answer questions : `` move it up here , '' he tells @ @ @ @ @ long pauses between his words as he waits for the prompter to scroll .
pic.twitter.com/zYlMbfd2mA

Joe Biden is relying on a teleprompter to answer questions: "move it up here," he tells his staff.
There are long pauses between his words as he waits for the prompter to scroll. pic.twitter.com/zYlMbfd2mA
— Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) September 7, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Rochester Police Chief, Deputy Chiefs Retire

Rochester , NY Police Chief La ’ Ron Singletary said in a surprise announcement on Tuesday that he will be @ @ @ @ @ 40 after less than 18 months on the job , after controversy erupted over the @ @ @ @ @ man while in police custody .
His deputy and the city ’ s entire command @ @ @ @ @ , according to ABC News and Bloomberg .

Rochester’s police chief and deputy chief resign amid scrutiny over the death of Daniel Prude, a Black man who was put in a “spit hood” and restrained by officers in March. t.co/rPomh5mHXR — Breaking News (@BreakingNews) September 8, 2020
#ROC councilman Michael Paterson says council was blindsided by resignation of RPD Command Staff. Not sure when the effective date is, waiting for more answers. @news10nbc — Jennifer Lewke (@WHEC_JLewke) September 8, 2020
Rochester, NY Police Chief La’Ron Singletary said in a surprise announcement on Tuesday that he will be retiring at the age of 40 after less than 18 months on the job, after controversy erupted over the March death of a black man while in police custody.
His deputy and the city’s entire command staff joined him in leaving, according to ABC News and Bloomberg.
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www.zerohedge.com/political/rochester-police-chief-suddenly-resigns-over-attempt-destroy-my-character
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--A MASSIVE Stock Market Bubble! – Experts WARN Of The Cataclysm To Come!

by Josh Sigurdson with Tim Picciott via World Alternative Media Josh Sigurdson talks with Tim Picciott , The Liberty Advisor @ @ @ @ @ stock market as many mainstream analysts warn of a bubble and a collapse of especially @ @ @ @ @ .
2020 has been a very strange year for the stock market and highlights the @ @ @ @ @ market faces as the Federal Reserve buys up bonds , in some cases foreign bonds @ @ @ @ @ hitting bottoms to hitting highs again to dropping off a cliff again , this year @ @ @ @ @ .
As the election approaches , the stock market will be hugely indicative of who @ @ @ @ @ will end the year .
We ’ ve been talking about this issue for years @ @ @ @ @ flaws in massive central planning and market manipulation .
It is now all coming to @ @ @ @ @ the year .
Stay tuned for more from WAM !

by Josh Sigurdson with Tim Picciott via World Alternative Media
Josh Sigurdson talks with Tim Picciott, The Liberty Advisor about the fall of the stock market as many mainstream analysts warn of a bubble and a collapse of especially the S&P 500.
2020 has been a very strange year for the stock market and highlights the level of manipulation the stock market faces as the Federal Reserve buys up bonds, in some cases foreign bonds.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
From hitting highs to hitting bottoms to hitting highs again to dropping off a cliff again, this year shows no signs of relenting. As the election approaches, the stock market will be hugely indicative of who will win and how investors will end the year.
We’ve been talking about this issue for years, warning about the inevitable flaws in massive central planning and market manipulation. It is now all coming to fruition as it has throughout the year.
Stay tuned for more from WAM!


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Fitch Cuts Long-Term WTI Oil Price Outlook To $50

Fitch Ratings has lowered its long-term price assumption for West Texas Intermediate to $ 50 from $ 52 a barrel expected earlier , to reflect fragile market balances , inventory overhangs , lower breakevens , and the energy transition going forward .
According to the rating agency ’ s latest oil and gas price assumptions update on Tuesday , Brent Crude prices are expected at $ 53 a barrel in the long term in the base-case scenario , compared to a previous forecast of $ 55 per barrel .
Fitch also reduced its oil price outlook for 2022 , expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ barrel , down from an earlier projection of $ 53 a barrel , on the back of higher inventories that will have resulted from the pandemic , as well as the fragile supply-demand dynamics and declining breakeven oil prices in many areas .
WTI Crude prices are now expected to average $ 47 a barrel in 2022 , down from $ 50 expected earlier .
“ The price reduction comes despite a better-than-expected year-to-date performance due to decisive production cuts by OPEC+ , loosened lockdown measures and an economic recovery that has led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ USD41/b , ” Fitch Ratings said .
The rating agency expects some inventory drawdowns in the second half of this year , and in 2021 , after inventories had accumulated at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day ( bpd ) in the first half of 2020 as per EIA estimates .
Apart from fundamentals , oil prices in the long term will reflect the ongoing drive for the transition to low-carbon energy sources , Fitch noted .
“ The timing for oil demand peaking will be influenced by changes in regulation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult to predict , but we believe the energy transition will materially reduce oil consumption growth prospects from the mid-2020s , ” the rating agency ’ s analysts said .
For the Henry Hub natural gas prices , Fitch Ratings left its medium and long-term price assumptions unchanged at $ 2.45 per thousand cubic feet ( mcf ) , but raised its 2020 average price outlook to $ 2.10/mcf from $ 1.85/mcf , thanks to more favorable short-term fundamentals .

By Tsvetana Paraskova
Fitch Ratings has lowered its long-term price assumption for West Texas Intermediate to $50 from $52 a barrel expected earlier, to reflect fragile market balances, inventory overhangs, lower breakevens, and the energy transition going forward.
According to the rating agency’s latest oil and gas price assumptions update on Tuesday, Brent Crude prices are expected at $53 a barrel in the long term in the base-case scenario, compared to a previous forecast of $55 per barrel.
Fitch also reduced its oil price outlook for 2022, expecting Brent Crude prices at $50 per barrel, down from an earlier projection of $53 a barrel, on the back of higher inventories that will have resulted from the pandemic, as well as the fragile supply-demand dynamics and declining breakeven oil prices in many areas. WTI Crude prices are now expected to average $47 a barrel in 2022, down from $50 expected earlier.
“The price reduction comes despite a better-than-expected year-to-date performance due to decisive production cuts by OPEC+, loosened lockdown measures and an economic recovery that has led us to increase our 2020 assumption to USD41/b,” Fitch Ratings said.
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The rating agency expects some inventory drawdowns in the second half of this year, and in 2021, after inventories had accumulated at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2020 as per EIA estimates.
Apart from fundamentals, oil prices in the long term will reflect the ongoing drive for the transition to low-carbon energy sources, Fitch noted.
“The timing for oil demand peaking will be influenced by changes in regulation, taxation and technology, which are difficult to predict, but we believe the energy transition will materially reduce oil consumption growth prospects from the mid-2020s,” the rating agency’s analysts said.
For the Henry Hub natural gas prices, Fitch Ratings left its medium and long-term price assumptions unchanged at $2.45 per thousand cubic feet (mcf), but raised its 2020 average price outlook to $2.10/mcf from $1.85/mcf, thanks to more favorable short-term fundamentals.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--Japan Tried To Broker Oil Barter Deal Between Iran, U.S.

The Japanese government tried to melt the freeze between Washington and Tehran by proposing a swap deal involving Iranian oil and U.S. grain , Kyodo reports , citing unnamed government sources .
The proposal was made by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe , who became the first Japanese PM to visit Iran in 41 years in June 2019 .
The deal was to be worth several billion dollars and initially met with positive reactions in both Tehran and Washington , according to the Kyodo sources .
The deal indeed looked like a win-win situation : Iran needed food and markets for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on the other hand , needed new markets for its grain and soybeans as the trade war with China had had a negative impact on sales , Kyodo reported .
The barter nature of the deal would skirt U.S. sanctions on Iran but removing these sanctions was not on the table , which led to Iran eventually refusing the deal as it insisted sanctions must first be lifted .
What is more , Tehran , for obvious reasons , did not trust the U.S. and insisted that Washington makes a commitment first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sanctions aimed at stifling Iran ’ s primary source of foreign income have decimated these exports , but Iran is still sending oil abroad .
The amount of this oil is higher than the official figures suggest .
According to TankerTrackers.com data , as of August , Iran was exporting as much as 600,000 barrels daily , using ship-to-ship transfers with transponders turned off to avoid detection , skirting U.S. sanctions .
The daily average number compares with an estimate of 227,000 bpd made in a U.S. Congressional report .
Most of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , whether directly or indirectly , coming from Indonesia or Malaysia .
According to official data from the Central Bank of Iran , the income from exports of oil , gas , condensates , and oil products totaled $ 29 billion in the last Iranian year , from March 2019 to March 2020 .

By Charles Kennedy
The Japanese government tried to melt the freeze between Washington and Tehran by proposing a swap deal involving Iranian oil and U.S. grain, Kyodo reports, citing unnamed government sources.
The proposal was made by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who became the first Japanese PM to visit Iran in 41 years in June 2019. The deal was to be worth several billion dollars and initially met with positive reactions in both Tehran and Washington, according to the Kyodo sources.
The deal indeed looked like a win-win situation: Iran needed food and markets for its sanctioned oil. The United States, on the other hand, needed new markets for its grain and soybeans as the trade war with China had had a negative impact on sales, Kyodo reported.
The barter nature of the deal would skirt U.S. sanctions on Iran but removing these sanctions was not on the table, which led to Iran eventually refusing the deal as it insisted sanctions must first be lifted. What is more, Tehran, for obvious reasons, did not trust the U.S. and insisted that Washington makes a commitment first before Tehran accepted the deal.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
U.S. sanctions aimed at stifling Iran’s primary source of foreign income have decimated these exports, but Iran is still sending oil abroad. The amount of this oil is higher than the official figures suggest.
According to TankerTrackers.com data, as of August, Iran was exporting as much as 600,000 barrels daily, using ship-to-ship transfers with transponders turned off to avoid detection, skirting U.S. sanctions. The daily average number compares with an estimate of 227,000 bpd made in a U.S. Congressional report.
Most of the oil Iran exports ends up in China, whether directly or indirectly, coming from Indonesia or Malaysia.
According to official data from the Central Bank of Iran, the income from exports of oil, gas, condensates, and oil products totaled $29 billion in the last Iranian year, from March 2019 to March 2020.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-09--POWERFUL : 12,000 defied Gavin Newsom with massive worship service at state capitol

More than 12,000 Christians defied @ GavinNewsom and turned out for a massive worship service on the grounds of the @ @ @ @ @ # LetUsWorship t.co/1rTvjUf5aj

More than 12,000 Christians defied @GavinNewsom and turned out for a massive worship service on the grounds of the state capitol. #PraiseGod #LetUsWorship t.co/1rTvjUf5aj
— toddstarnes (@toddstarnes) September 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--The 1998 Correction & The Run To The Peak

Over the last few months , the markets have become engulfed by a palpable feeling of exuberance .
I remember the last time investors were engulfed in a near “ panic ” to invest .
It was 1998 , where following a correction , the market began a seemingly endless run to the peak in 2000 .
I ’ m not too fond of market analogs as no two market environments are ever the same .
However , there are many comparisons currently to the late 90s to explain the current bull market .
The chart is below .
Currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trading at 31x trailing CAPE earnings .
For comparative purposes , I have capped CAPE at 25x in the chart above , which aligns it with every valuation peak throughout history .
The deviation in valuations above the long-term average also only occurred in the late 90s .
In the late 90s , there was also rampant speculation in unprofitable companies simply because they were associated with the rise of the internet .
Stocks like JDS Uniphase , Lucent Technologies , Global Crossing , Enron , SDLI , and a host of others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points or more .
Making money was so easy in the market that people quit their jobs to become day traders .
Everyone from grocery clerks to barbers became stock market gurus , and making money was so easy , why not lever up ?
Or even better , use buy call options to increase the buying power of your money .
Today , there are more call options on stocks than we saw then .
Value Is For Boomers Previously , I discussed the disparity in value and the deviation between value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ related to similarities seen at previous market peaks where investors threw “ caution to the wind ” and paid astronomical prices to own the “ hot stocks.
” While most young investors today assume “ buying value ” is for “ boomers , ” it is worth remembering what Scott McNealy , then CEO of Sun Microsystems , told investors who were paying 10x Price-to-Sales for his company in a 1999 Bloomberg interview .
“ At 10-times revenues , to give you a 10-year payback , I have to pay you 100 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That assumes I can get that by my shareholders .
It also assumes I have zero cost of goods sold , which is very hard for a computer company .
That assumes zero expenses , which is hard with 39,000 employees .
That assumes I pay no taxes , which is very hard .
And that expects you pay no taxes on your dividends , which is kind of illegal .
And that assumes with zero R & D for the next 10-years , I can maintain the current revenue run rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would any of you like to buy my stock at $ 64 ?
Do you realize how ridiculous those underlying assumptions are ?
You don ’ t need any transparency .
You don ’ t need any footnotes .
How Many Do You Own ?
Currently , there are hundreds of companies trading well beyond 10x price-to-sales .
Below is a list of some of the “ hot stocks ” young investors are piling into trading at 10x or more .
Of course , much of this is “ forgotten history ” as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not alive in 1999 , or b ) still too young to invest .
For the newer generation of investors , the lack of “ experience ” provides no basis for the importance of “ valuations ” to future outcomes .
That is something only learned through experience .
Just as was the case in 1999 , investors believe that stocks are essentially a “ one-decision ” investment .
You buy them , and they only go up in price .
In 1999 , a large majority of these companies were financially unstable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as shown above , it isn ’ t much different .
Notably , In 1999 , as it is today , there was “ no one , ” saying there was a “ Tech Bubble.
” As Mark Hulbert noted earlier this year , it was quite the opposite .
It also smacks of current sentiment as well : “ After reading through my newsletter archives from January 2000 , I was struck by the similarities between now and then .
For example , one newsletter editor in mid-January 2000 said he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it wouldn ’ t be raising rates as aggressively as previously thought .
Another said , “ inflation is dead.
” A third celebrated the strength of the economy , as evidenced by robust consumer spending in the Christmas season that had just ended .
Sound familiar ?
To be sure , these similarities don ’ t mean the U.S. market is at or near a top .
It does illustrate the false comfort we gain when telling ourselves a bear market can ’ t happen since the economy is strong , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is accommodative.
” As Mark goes on to note , the extension of valuations is concerning .
However , valuations are a poor measure of market “ bubbles.
” Why ?
Because “ bubbles ” are a “ psychological phenomenon ” where investor “ greed ” completely overrides “ logic ” and “ restraint.
” More Similarities Than You Think The current bull market is by far and away one of the longest bull markets in history .
Currently running 137 months and 2783 points from the March 2009 lows , it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is also important to remember that it is only the first half of a full-market cycle .
Here are some similarities : • Fed was providing liquidity in anticipation of Y2k problems .
• Earnings were rising through the use of “ new metrics , ” share buybacks , and an M & A spree .
( Who can forget the market greats of Enron , Worldcom & Global Crossing ) • Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record .
• The stock market was beginning to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ’ t lose market.
” • Fed was discussing that subprime was “ contained.
” • Debt and leverage provided a massive “ buying ” binge in real estate , creating a “ wealth effect ” for consumers , and high-valuations were justified because of the “ Goldilocks economy.
” • Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record .
• The stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “ can ’ t lose market.
” • Earnings are rising through the use of “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and an M & A spree .
• Margin-debt / leverage is pushing back toward the highest level on record .
• The stock market is beginning to go parabolic as exuberance explodes in a “ can ’ t lose market.
” Of course , those are just some of the similarities .
As noted above , valuations in all three cases exceeded the long-term market peaks of 23x reported earnings .
Furthermore , just as we saw each time previously , investor confidence is pushing extremes .
Seen This Before Again , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to crash tomorrow .
History suggests the markets can , and will likely continue to rise in the short-term .
As I stated , momentum is a tough thing to kill .
However , I have played this game before , and as the old saying goes : If you have been around the markets for any length of time , you can quickly spot the “ pigeons at the poker table.
” These are the ones that continually rationalize why prices can only go higher , why this time is different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the bullish supports .
Trying to “ draw to an inside straight ” is not impossible ; it just leads to losses more often than not .
Gambling in the stock market may be fun in the short-term .
However , it would be best if you always remembered why Las Vegas makes billions in profits every year .
If you play long enough , “ the house always wins .
”

by Lance Roberts
Over the last few months, the markets have become engulfed by a palpable feeling of exuberance. I remember the last time investors were engulfed in a near “panic” to invest. It was 1998, where following a correction, the market began a seemingly endless run to the peak in 2000.
I’m not too fond of market analogs as no two market environments are ever the same. However, there are many comparisons currently to the late 90s to explain the current bull market. The chart is below.
Another comparison is valuations.
Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at 31x trailing CAPE earnings. For comparative purposes, I have capped CAPE at 25x in the chart above, which aligns it with every valuation peak throughout history.
The deviation in valuations above the long-term average also only occurred in the late 90s.
Late 90’s Type Speculation
In the late 90s, there was also rampant speculation in unprofitable companies simply because they were associated with the rise of the internet. Stocks like JDS Uniphase, Lucent Technologies, Global Crossing, Enron, SDLI, and a host of others would rise each trading day by 50 points or more.
Making money was so easy in the market that people quit their jobs to become day traders. Everyone from grocery clerks to barbers became stock market gurus, and making money was so easy, why not lever up?
Or even better, use buy call options to increase the buying power of your money. Today, there are more call options on stocks than we saw then.
Value Is For Boomers
Previously, I discussed the disparity in value and the deviation between value and growth.
Part of those discussions related to similarities seen at previous market peaks where investors threw “caution to the wind” and paid astronomical prices to own the “hot stocks.”
While most young investors today assume “buying value” is for “boomers,” it is worth remembering what Scott McNealy, then CEO of Sun Microsystems, told investors who were paying 10x Price-to-Sales for his company in a 1999 Bloomberg interview.
“At 10-times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10-straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. It also assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that expects you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10-years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those underlying assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?”
How Many Do You Own?
Currently, there are hundreds of companies trading well beyond 10x price-to-sales. Below is a list of some of the “hot stocks” young investors are piling into trading at 10x or more.
Of course, much of this is “forgotten history” as many investors today were either a) not alive in 1999, or b) still too young to invest. For the newer generation of investors, the lack of “experience” provides no basis for the importance of “valuations” to future outcomes. That is something only learned through experience.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Bubbles Are About Psychology
Just as was the case in 1999, investors believe that stocks are essentially a “one-decision” investment. You buy them, and they only go up in price. In 1999, a large majority of these companies were financially unstable or grossly overvalued at best. Today, as shown above, it isn’t much different.
Notably, In 1999, as it is today, there was “no one,” saying there was a “Tech Bubble.” As Mark Hulbert noted earlier this year, it was quite the opposite. It also smacks of current sentiment as well:
“After reading through my newsletter archives from January 2000, I was struck by the similarities between now and then. For example, one newsletter editor in mid-January 2000 said he was encouraged that the Fed was signaling that it wouldn’t be raising rates as aggressively as previously thought. Another said, “inflation is dead.” A third celebrated the strength of the economy, as evidenced by robust consumer spending in the Christmas season that had just ended. Sound familiar? To be sure, these similarities don’t mean the U.S. market is at or near a top. It does illustrate the false comfort we gain when telling ourselves a bear market can’t happen since the economy is strong, inflation is moribund, and the Fed is accommodative.”
As Mark goes on to note, the extension of valuations is concerning. However, valuations are a poor measure of market “bubbles.” Why? Because “bubbles” are a “psychological phenomenon” where investor “greed” completely overrides “logic” and “restraint.”
More Similarities Than You Think
The current bull market is by far and away one of the longest bull markets in history. Currently running 137 months and 2783 points from the March 2009 lows, it is one for the record books. However, it is also important to remember that it is only the first half of a full-market cycle.
Here are some similarities:
In 1999:
Fed was providing liquidity in anticipation of Y2k problems.
Economic growth was beginning to deteriorate.
Interest rates were falling.
Earnings were rising through the use of “new metrics,” share buybacks, and an M&A spree. (Who can forget the market greats of Enron, Worldcom & Global Crossing)
Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record.
The stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “can’t lose market.”
The speculative asset of choice: Dot.com stocks
In 2007:
Fed was discussing that subprime was “contained.”
Economic growth was beginning to deteriorate.
Interest rates were falling.
Debt and leverage provided a massive “buying” binge in real estate, creating a “wealth effect” for consumers, and high-valuations were justified because of the “Goldilocks economy.”
Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record.
The stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “can’t lose market.”
The speculative asset of choice: Real Estate
In 2020:
Fed continues to “jawbone” markets with accommodative policies.
Economic growth has deteriorated.
Interest rates continue to decline.
Earnings are rising through the use of “new metrics,” share buybacks, and an M&A spree.
Margin-debt / leverage is pushing back toward the highest level on record.
The stock market is beginning to go parabolic as exuberance explodes in a “can’t lose market.”
The speculative asset of choice: Work-At-Home Stocks
Of course, those are just some of the similarities.
As noted above, valuations in all three cases exceeded the long-term market peaks of 23x reported earnings. Furthermore, just as we saw each time previously, investor confidence is pushing extremes.
Seen This Before
Again, none of this suggests the market is going to crash tomorrow.
History suggests the markets can, and will likely continue to rise in the short-term. As I stated, momentum is a tough thing to kill.
However, I have played this game before, and as the old saying goes:
“The more things change, the more they remain the same.”
If you have been around the markets for any length of time, you can quickly spot the “pigeons at the poker table.”
These are the ones that continually rationalize why prices can only go higher, why this time is different than the last, and solely focus on the bullish supports. Trying to “draw to an inside straight” is not impossible; it just leads to losses more often than not.
Gambling in the stock market may be fun in the short-term. However, it would be best if you always remembered why Las Vegas makes billions in profits every year.
If you play long enough, “the house always wins.”


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--Germany Admits There Never Has Been an Epidemiological Emergency!

Our computer has a full database of diseases and works out the cyclical nature .
The annual flu shot is developed on a cyclical basis assuming the strain will mutate annually .
There was NEVER any indication in our models that called for a major pandemic at this time .
I have stated that such a risk does not appear to be until 2022 .
That background has been why I have been skeptical about this virus which just did not appear to be ( 1 ) a natural event or ( 2 ) a greatly exaggerated event to create @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of February 27th , 2020 was created by Hitler to suspend the constitution using fear and to seize power in the elections 6 days later .
Fear is the tool by which all tyranny seizes power and this COVID-19 has all the hallmarks of being a false flag .
The CDC has come out and said that more people have died from suicides than COVID .
The social media is scrubbing posts which have been quoting the CDC than only 6 % of the reports of the deaths were from only COVID – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmed that less than 15,000 people died under the age of 55 .
The Germany Minister of Health admitted that the lockdowns were a mistake .
Now the data on the COVID situation and mortality in Germany have surfaced showing that there has “ apparently never been an epidemiological emergency.
” It is time that we demand an investigation that is REAL and we expose those who have been orchestrating this false flag to force their Climate Change agenda on the world .

by Martin Armstrong
Our computer has a full database of diseases and works out the cyclical nature. The annual flu shot is developed on a cyclical basis assuming the strain will mutate annually. There was NEVER any indication in our models that called for a major pandemic at this time. I have stated that such a risk does not appear to be until 2022.
That background has been why I have been skeptical about this virus which just did not appear to be (1) a natural event or (2) a greatly exaggerated event to create a false flag. The Reichstag Fire of February 27th, 2020 was created by Hitler to suspend the constitution using fear and to seize power in the elections 6 days later. Fear is the tool by which all tyranny seizes power and this COVID-19 has all the hallmarks of being a false flag.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The CDC has come out and said that more people have died from suicides than COVID. The social media is scrubbing posts which have been quoting the CDC than only 6% of the reports of the deaths were from only COVID – less than 10,000. That same report confirmed that less than 15,000 people died under the age of 55. The Germany Minister of Health admitted that the lockdowns were a mistake. Now the data on the COVID situation and mortality in Germany have surfaced showing that there has “apparently never been an epidemiological emergency.”
It is time that we demand an investigation that is REAL and we expose those who have been orchestrating this false flag to force their Climate Change agenda on the world.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--California Is Now a Third-World Country… Energy Disaster Prompts Fed Help… Elites Are Fleeing Democr

California Is Now a Third-World Country… Energy Disaster Prompts Fed Help… Elites Are Fleeing Democrat Cities

The mayor of Los Angeles told residents to unplug their appliances , shut off their air conditioners , and turn on a fan after 3 p.m.
It ’ s almost 3 p.m. Time to turn off major appliances , set the thermostat to 78 degrees ( or use a fan instead ) , turn off excess lights and unplug any appliances you ’ re not using .
We need every Californian to help conserve energy .
Please do your part .
# FlexAlert And they call those of us in flyover country backwards… The state of California , rich in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disaster zone in crisis .
California has been run by Democrats for years , and while Governor Gavin Newsom and other similarly minded leaders like Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti continue to posture and preen about social justice and coronavirus masks , the state ’ s energy infrastructure has been collapsing .
It ’ s been 17 years since Gray Davis saw himself recalled for his mismanagement of California , which included “ rolling blackouts.
” The energy situation in California has not been improved much at all .
One of the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & Electric , pleaded guilty to causing a massive wildfire in 2018 that resulted in 84 deaths .
And yet , all they got was a fine .
No one is ever held truly accountable in California , so long as you have enough money to keep covering things up .
As a result , California is a wreck .
Shunning of controlled burns to prevent forest fires has created a tinderbox instead .
It ’ s only been recently that controlled burns have been embraced again .
Wildfires are consuming the Sierra @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out camping for Labor Day weekend were evacuated out of the area in a coordinated effort by the National Guard and local first responders .
Those trying to fight the fire are also fighting a terrible heat wave .

The mayor of Los Angeles told residents to unplug their appliances, shut off their air conditioners, and turn on a fan after 3 p.m.
Look at this…
It’s almost 3 p.m. Time to turn off major appliances, set the thermostat to 78 degrees (or use a fan instead), turn off excess lights and unplug any appliances you’re not using.
We need every Californian to help conserve energy. Please do your part. #FlexAlert
— MayorOfLA (@MayorOfLA) September 6, 2020
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
And they call those of us in flyover country backwards…
www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/07/nolte-california-is-now-a-third-world-country/#
The state of California, rich in natural resources and opportunity, is a disaster zone in crisis.
California has been run by Democrats for years, and while Governor Gavin Newsom and other similarly minded leaders like Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti continue to posture and preen about social justice and coronavirus masks, the state’s energy infrastructure has been collapsing. It’s been 17 years since Gray Davis saw himself recalled for his mismanagement of California, which included “rolling blackouts.” The energy situation in California has not been improved much at all. One of the state’s utility companies, Pacific Gas & Electric, pleaded guilty to causing a massive wildfire in 2018 that resulted in 84 deaths. And yet, all they got was a fine. No one is ever held truly accountable in California, so long as you have enough money to keep covering things up.
As a result, California is a wreck. Shunning of controlled burns to prevent forest fires has created a tinderbox instead. It’s only been recently that controlled burns have been embraced again. Wildfires are consuming the Sierra National Forest, and over 200 people out camping for Labor Day weekend were evacuated out of the area in a coordinated effort by the National Guard and local first responders. Those trying to fight the fire are also fighting a terrible heat wave.
victorygirlsblog.com/california-energy-disaster-prompts-fed-help/


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--Travis Tritt Exposes Dem Lies And Manipulations

Just for clarification , more proof of the dishonesty of the left .
Here is the original photo of me @ @ @ @ @ that is being circulated by the left in an attempt to try to humiliate me @ @ @ @ @ the liars they are is so easy .
pic.twitter.com/i1dcgMuInS

Just for clarification, more proof of the dishonesty of the left. Here is the original photo of me next to the doctored version that is being circulated by the left in an attempt to try to humiliate me. Exposing these frauds for the liars they are is so easy. pic.twitter.com/i1dcgMuInS
— Travis Tritt (@Travistritt) September 8, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--NANNY STATE: Apple And Google Creating Backdoor For Government COVID Tracking Without An App

Apple and Google announce new automatic app system to track COVID exposures States can now deploy exposure notifications without building their own apps Apple and Google are launching a new auto-generated software framework to help states deploy their own contact tracing apps .
Developed as an extension of the earlier exposure notification framework , the new system allows public health authorities to avoid the broader development work of launching a standalone app , simply configuring the basic framework to their state ’ s needs .
Existing applications won ’ t be affected by the new framework , and adopting the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launching more involved apps in the future .
“ As the next step in our work with public health authorities on Exposure Notifications , we are making it easier and faster for them to use the Exposure Notifications System without the need for them to build and maintain an app , ” Apple and Google said in a statement .
“ Exposure Notifications Express provides another option for public health authorities to supplement their existing contact tracing operations with technology without compromising on the project ’ s core tenets of user privacy and @ @ @

Apple and Google announce new automatic app system to track COVID exposures
States can now deploy exposure notifications without building their own apps
Apple and Google are launching a new auto-generated software framework to help states deploy their own contact tracing apps. Developed as an extension of the earlier exposure notification framework, the new system allows public health authorities to avoid the broader development work of launching a standalone app, simply configuring the basic framework to their state’s needs. Existing applications won’t be affected by the new framework, and adopting the framework won’t prevent states from launching more involved apps in the future.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
“As the next step in our work with public health authorities on Exposure Notifications, we are making it easier and faster for them to use the Exposure Notifications System without the need for them to build and maintain an app,” Apple and Google said in a statement. “Exposure Notifications Express provides another option for public health authorities to supplement their existing contact tracing operations with technology without compromising on the project’s core tenets of user privacy and security.”
www.theverge.com/2020/9/1/21410281/apple-google-coronavirus-exposure-notification-contact-tracing-app-system
Welcome to iOS 13,7, due out today. This will install “exposure notification” to Covid-19 in your operating system. A sneaky, backdoor way to give countries access to your “exposure data” without the need for an app. Big Brother is watching… t.co/ZYW6pS98xZ — Miss Jo (@therealmissjo) September 8, 2020
h/t CrsCrpr


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--Wounded Vet Comes Forward To Debunk MSM Lies, “Trump Never Called Me A Loser, Quit Using Me!”

`` I do n't know what @ realDonaldTrump said , but I 'm sure he did n't call me a @ @ @ @ @ hear him call me a loser , so this has got to stop .
Stop @ @ @ @ @ pic.twitter.com/u8jpKKGOld

"I don't know what @realDonaldTrump said, but I'm sure he didn't call me a loser. I didn't hear him call me a loser, so this has got to stop. Stop using my image." pic.twitter.com/u8jpKKGOld
— Poland Loves Trump 🇵🇱 (@Woj_Pawelczyk) September 7, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--Are the Democrats using the 1932 Play-Book to Overthrow Trump?

The real question nobody seems to be asking , is the 2020 election 1932 all over again ?
Most people have no idea that there was major civil unrest under the pretense of the Bonus Army just as we now have under Black Lives Matter ( BLM ) where there were covert groups using the veterans to cover a Communist Revolution that was being waged during 1932 setting the stage for the shift and victory for Roosevelt .
We are witnessing the exact same strategy being played out again which is deliberately being pulled off by the Democrats .
Anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reuters – one of the few news organizations still producing news .
Joe Biden ’ s staff are donating to the groups providing bail for the rioters and looters !
In July 1932 , there was the Bonus Army march on Washington demanding their bonus from World War I .
However , like the Black Lives Matter ( BLM ) , there were other groups which have infiltrated the BLM movement to turn it violent just as there were non-veterans who infiltrated the Bonus Army to create civil unrest to overthrow Hoover .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats say nothing about the riots and the Democratically controlled big cities are crumbling as their Democratic leaders encourage the riots and looting .
The California prosecutor claims if looters are poor , then somehow that is an excuse to justify looting !
There are numerous Democratic mayors who see the chaos and are switching parties .
Even police departments are openly stating they are switching to the Republicans because the “ Democratic Party has lost its way !
” Based upon RELIABLE sources , there is a deep concern that the Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Global Elitists and the playbook was to create riots , as they did in 1932 , but to force lockdowns to crash the economy to mimic the Great Depression .
They actually believed that they could turn the country fully into a socialist state and impose this Great Reset while handing out minimal subsistence for living called Guaranteed Basic Income .
In 1932 , Hoover offered paid passage to veterans to return home .
About 6,000 took them up .
About 5,000 remains and it turned out to be mostly communists using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they hoped would be a revolution .
Here is a quote from his papers .
The Communist leaders were arrested .
Here we have exactly the same playbook in operation except the Coronavirus has been used to crush the economy which they hope will dethrone Trump .

by Martin Armstrong
The real question nobody seems to be asking, is the 2020 election 1932 all over again? Most people have no idea that there was major civil unrest under the pretense of the Bonus Army just as we now have under Black Lives Matter (BLM) where there were covert groups using the veterans to cover a Communist Revolution that was being waged during 1932 setting the stage for the shift and victory for Roosevelt. We are witnessing the exact same strategy being played out again which is deliberately being pulled off by the Democrats. Anyone who questions that statement should look at Reuters – one of the few news organizations still producing news. Joe Biden’s staff are donating to the groups providing bail for the rioters and looters!
In July 1932, there was the Bonus Army march on Washington demanding their bonus from World War I. However, like the Black Lives Matter (BLM), there were other groups which have infiltrated the BLM movement to turn it violent just as there were non-veterans who infiltrated the Bonus Army to create civil unrest to overthrow Hoover. This is also why Biden and the Democrats say nothing about the riots and the Democratically controlled big cities are crumbling as their Democratic leaders encourage the riots and looting. The California prosecutor claims if looters are poor, then somehow that is an excuse to justify looting! There are numerous Democratic mayors who see the chaos and are switching parties. Even police departments are openly stating they are switching to the Republicans because the “Democratic Party has lost its way!”
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Based upon RELIABLE sources, there is a deep concern that the Democratic Party has fallen into the hands of the Global Elitists and the playbook was to create riots, as they did in 1932, but to force lockdowns to crash the economy to mimic the Great Depression. They actually believed that they could turn the country fully into a socialist state and impose this Great Reset while handing out minimal subsistence for living called Guaranteed Basic Income.
In 1932, Hoover offered paid passage to veterans to return home. About 6,000 took them up. About 5,000 remains and it turned out to be mostly communists using the veterans as cover to instigate what they hoped would be a revolution. Here is a quote from his papers. The Communist leaders were arrested. Here we have exactly the same playbook in operation except the Coronavirus has been used to crush the economy which they hope will dethrone Trump.


investmentwatchblog--2020-09-08--GOLD’S Slow Decline Coming To An End, BIG & SHARP DECLINE Likely TO FOLLOW

A picture is worth a thousand words , so let ’ s get straight to the gold chart itself .
As far as gold is concerned , we previously wrote the following : After topping at its triangle-vertex-based reversal , gold declined and is now trading at its declining resistance line , which turned into support .
This could generate a rebound , especially that at the same time gold finally broke below the rising medium-term support line .
This breakdown is a big deal , as all previous attempts were invalidated .
Since this support is so strong , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to it .
Such a verification ( if gold doesn ’ t invalidate the breakdown that is ) would be very bearish for the short term .
Gold paused after moving below the above-mentioned support line , and the breakdown was verified .
This is very bearish for the short term .
Gold moved back and forth at the most recent triangle-vertex-based reversal , which is a bearish sign .
Why would this be the case ?
Because gold had declined previously , which means that it “ should have ” rallied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It didn ’ t , which shows short-term weakness .
The next support is at $ 1,700 , which is where – approximately – gold topped and bottomed multiple times earlier this year .
That ’ s also the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement based on this year ’ s upswing .
The $ 1,700 level is additionally confirmed by the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2015 – 2020 rally .
There ’ s also possibility that gold would decline to the $ 1,500 – $ 1,600 area or so ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level to which gold declined initially in 2011 ) , but based on the size of the recent upswing , we no longer think that this scenario is the most likely one .
Gold ’ s very long-term turning point is here and since the most recent move has definitely been to the upside , its implications are bearish .
We used the purple lines to mark the previous price moves that followed gold ’ s long-term turning points , and we copied them to the current situation .
We copied both the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it seems that some moves would suggest that gold moves back in time – the point is to show how important the turning point is in general .
The big change here is that due to gold ’ s big rally , we moved our downside target for it higher .
Based on the information that we have available right now , it seems likely that gold will bottom close to the $ 1,700 level .
That ’ s very much in tune with how much gold moved after the previous long-term turning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re discussing the long-term charts , please note the most important detail that you can see on the gold , silver , and mining stock charts , is hidden in plain sight .
Please note how much silver and miners rallied .
The analogy to the price moves after the previous turning points didn ’ t change , but since the starting point is much higher , the downside target is also higher .
Speaking of upside targets , two weeks ago , we wrote the following : Based on gold ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and lows ( the 2018 high and late-2019 low along with the 2020 low ) , we get a nearby upside target of $ 2085 .
At the moment of writing these words , gold is trading at $ 2044 .
Given this week ’ s volatility , it could even be a matter of hours before gold reaches the above-mentioned target and reverses .
Taking closing prices into account , gold is up by $ 35 , so if it reverses significantly , we would be likely to see a powerful weekly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to decline in the following weeks .
That ’ s more or less what happened .
Gold topped at $ 2,089.20 .
It then declined quite visibly and closed last week at about $ 1,950 .
Before moving to silver , we would like to discuss something very important regarding the most recent rally in gold and the subsequent consolidation .
Do you get the feeling that you have already seen gold perform this way before ?
Because you did .
The history rhymes , but this time , the similarity is quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and pasted it on the long-term chart above and next to the 2011 top .
We pasted it twice , so that you can easily compare gold ’ s performance in both cases in terms of both : price and time .
They are very similar to say the least .
Yes , these patterns happened over different periods , but this doesn ’ t matter .
Markets are self-similar , which is why you can see similar short-term trends and long-term trends ( with regard to their shapes ) .
Consequently , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if they form over different timeframes .
After a sharp rally , gold declined quickly .
Then we saw a rebound , and a move back to the previous low .
Then , after a bit longer time , gold moved close to the most recent high and started its final decline .
This decline was less volatile than the initial slide .
That ’ s what happened when gold topped in 2011 ( and in the following years ) , and that ’ s what happened also this year .
Ok @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2011 top , we saw two initial reactive rallies and in 2020 there was just one , but it didn ’ t change the similarity with regard to time .
The patterns of this level of similarity are rare , and when they do finally take place , they tend to be remarkably precise with regard to the follow-up action .
What is likely to follow based on this pattern , is that we ’ re likely to see the end of the slower decline , which will be followed by a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we saw in 2013 .
How low could gold slide based on this similarity ?
Back in 2013 , gold declined approximately to the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement based on the preceding rally ( the one that started in 2008 ) , so that ’ s the natural target also this time .
And we already wrote about this particular retracement – it ’ s approximately at the $ 1,700 level .
This has been our downside target for weeks , and it was just confirmed by this precise self-similar technique .
Another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interim low close to the 50 % retracement and the previous lows .
Applying this to the current situation suggests that we could see a smaller rebound when gold moves to about $ 1,760 – $ 1,800 .
The interim downside target has very important trading implications .
Even though gold might rebound just temporarily , something much more profound is likely to take place in case of mining stocks and silver .
You will find details in today ’ s flagship Gold & Silver Trading Alert .
We invite you to subscribe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away .

by Przemyslaw Radomski via Sunshine Profits
A picture is worth a thousand words, so let’s get straight to the gold chart itself.
As far as gold is concerned, we previously wrote the following:
After topping at its triangle-vertex-based reversal, gold declined and is now trading at its declining resistance line, which turned into support. This could generate a rebound, especially that at the same time gold finally broke below the rising medium-term support line. This breakdown is a big deal, as all previous attempts were invalidated.
Since this support is so strong, we expect a rebound, quite possibly back to it. Such a verification (if gold doesn’t invalidate the breakdown that is) would be very bearish for the short term.
Gold paused after moving below the above-mentioned support line, and the breakdown was verified. This is very bearish for the short term.
Gold moved back and forth at the most recent triangle-vertex-based reversal, which is a bearish sign. Why would this be the case? Because gold had declined previously, which means that it “should have” rallied at the most recent turning point. It didn’t, which shows short-term weakness.
The next support is at $1,700, which is where – approximately – gold topped and bottomed multiple times earlier this year. That’s also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on this year’s upswing.
The $1,700 level is additionally confirmed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2015 – 2020 rally.
There’s also possibility that gold would decline to the $1,500 – $1,600 area or so (50% Fibonacci retracement and the price level to which gold declined initially in 2011), but based on the size of the recent upswing, we no longer think that this scenario is the most likely one.
Gold’s very long-term turning point is here and since the most recent move has definitely been to the upside, its implications are bearish.
We used the purple lines to mark the previous price moves that followed gold’s long-term turning points, and we copied them to the current situation. We copied both the rallies and declines, which is why it seems that some moves would suggest that gold moves back in time – the point is to show how important the turning point is in general.
The big change here is that due to gold’s big rally, we moved our downside target for it higher. Based on the information that we have available right now, it seems likely that gold will bottom close to the $1,700 level. That’s very much in tune with how much gold moved after the previous long-term turning points.
Also, while we’re discussing the long-term charts, please note the most important detail that you can see on the gold, silver, and mining stock charts, is hidden in plain sight. Please note how much silver and miners rallied.
The analogy to the price moves after the previous turning points didn’t change, but since the starting point is much higher, the downside target is also higher.
Speaking of upside targets, two weeks ago, we wrote the following:
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Based on gold’s Fibonacci extensions and the previous major highs and lows (the 2018 high and late-2019 low along with the 2020 low), we get a nearby upside target of $2085. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at $2044. Given this week’s volatility, it could even be a matter of hours before gold reaches the above-mentioned target and reverses. Taking closing prices into account, gold is up by $35, so if it reverses significantly, we would be likely to see a powerful weekly reversal candlestick and one that causes gold to decline in the following weeks.
That’s more or less what happened. Gold topped at $2,089.20. It then declined quite visibly and closed last week at about $1,950.
Before moving to silver, we would like to discuss something very important regarding the most recent rally in gold and the subsequent consolidation.
Do you get the feeling that you have already seen gold perform this way before? Because you did.
The history rhymes, but this time, the similarity is quite shocking.
We copied the short-term chart and pasted it on the long-term chart above and next to the 2011 top. We pasted it twice, so that you can easily compare gold’s performance in both cases in terms of both: price and time.
They are very similar to say the least. Yes, these patterns happened over different periods, but this doesn’t matter. Markets are self-similar, which is why you can see similar short-term trends and long-term trends (with regard to their shapes). Consequently, comparing patterns of similar shape makes sense even if they form over different timeframes.
After a sharp rally, gold declined quickly. Then we saw a rebound, and a move back to the previous low. Then, after a bit longer time, gold moved close to the most recent high and started its final decline. This decline was less volatile than the initial slide. That’s what happened when gold topped in 2011 (and in the following years), and that’s what happened also this year. Ok, after the initial decline from the 2011 top, we saw two initial reactive rallies and in 2020 there was just one, but it didn’t change the similarity with regard to time.
The patterns of this level of similarity are rare, and when they do finally take place, they tend to be remarkably precise with regard to the follow-up action.
What is likely to follow based on this pattern, is that we’re likely to see the end of the slower decline, which will be followed by a big and sharp decline – similarly to what we saw in 2013.
How low could gold slide based on this similarity? Back in 2013, gold declined approximately to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the preceding rally (the one that started in 2008), so that’s the natural target also this time.
And we already wrote about this particular retracement – it’s approximately at the $1,700 level. This has been our downside target for weeks, and it was just confirmed by this precise self-similar technique.
Another interesting point is that gold made an interim low close to the 50% retracement and the previous lows. Applying this to the current situation suggests that we could see a smaller rebound when gold moves to about $1,760 – $1,800.
The interim downside target has very important trading implications. Even though gold might rebound just temporarily, something much more profound is likely to take place in case of mining stocks and silver. You will find details in today’s flagship Gold & Silver Trading Alert. We invite you to subscribe and read today’s issue right away.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager