investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--SHOCKER: Zogby: Biden’s ‘dismal’ support from blacks threatens his election. What does he bring to t

SHOCKER: Zogby: Biden’s ‘dismal’ support from blacks threatens his election. What does he bring to the table, exactly?

Former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s “ dismal ” support from black voters , now confirmed in two polls , is likely to force his campaign to choose a black woman as his running mate to shore up the key group , according to a Democratic pollster .
In the latest John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research Solutions poll , Biden has the support of 77 % of black voters while 14 % back President Trump .
GOP officials have told Secrets that if Trump maintains that level of support from blacks people , he will win reelection .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ black Republican , said in February , “ Game over if we get 14.
” In the last 20 years , only George W. Bush , running for reelection in 2004 against then Sen. John Kerry , came close with 11 % of the black vote .
In 2016 , against Hillary Clinton , Trump won 8 % of the black vote .
Since his election , he saw black employment surge and black unemployment hit a new low before the coronavirus crisis .
Trump has also featured black voices in his administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by African Americans , including criminal justice reform .
Overall in the survey , Biden leads Trump 49 % -42 % , down from Biden ’ s 13-point lead in May , 54 % -41 % .
In its latest White House Watch , Rasmussen Reports found that 21 % of black people support Trump ’ s reelection .
The polling outfit has found unusually high black support for Trump for several months .

via washingtonexaminer:
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s “dismal” support from black voters, now confirmed in two polls, is likely to force his campaign to choose a black woman as his running mate to shore up the key group, according to a Democratic pollster.
In the latest John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research Solutions poll, Biden has the support of 77% of black voters while 14% back President Trump.
GOP officials have told Secrets that if Trump maintains that level of support from blacks people, he will win reelection. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, a black Republican, said in February, “Game over if we get 14.”
In the last 20 years, only George W. Bush, running for reelection in 2004 against then Sen. John Kerry, came close with 11% of the black vote. In 2016, against Hillary Clinton, Trump won 8% of the black vote.
Since his election, he saw black employment surge and black unemployment hit a new low before the coronavirus crisis. Trump has also featured black voices in his administration at events and endorsed key initiatives supported by African Americans, including criminal justice reform.
Overall in the survey, Biden leads Trump 49%-42%, down from Biden’s 13-point lead in May, 54%-41%.
In its latest White House Watch, Rasmussen Reports found that 21% of black people support Trump’s reelection. The polling outfit has found unusually high black support for Trump for several months.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Clinton commuted 11, Bush 11, Trump 10, Obama 1715

Obama makes clinton and bush look like boy scouts , 170 times more clemency orders than all the other presidents @ @ @ @ @ for 33,000 petitions for clemency.. No other president comes close.. Dude had a lot of @ @ @ @

Obama makes clinton and bush look like boy scouts, 170 times more clemency orders than all the other presidents.
www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-statistics
Obama has the record for 33,000 petitions for clemency..
No other president comes close..
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Dude had a lot of people he wanted free..
www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-statistics
h/t Grove Street


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--This is why we need to take back the house…

It 's no surprise that House Democrats refuse to investigate Democrat governors who ignored federal guidelines and forced COVID-19 patients @ @ @ @ @ Thousands of families lost loved ones as the result of these governors ' deadly decisions @

It's no surprise that House Democrats refuse to investigate Democrat governors who ignored federal guidelines and forced COVID-19 patients into nursing homes anyway.
Thousands of families lost loved ones as the result of these governors' deadly decisions.
— House Republicans (@HouseGOP) July 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Massachusetts Senate Passes Police Reform Bill After Overnight Debate

BOSTON ( CBS ) – The Massachusetts Senate passed a police reform bill after an hours-long session that concluded with @ @ @ @ @ .
Lawmakers voted to pass the bill after debating all night .
That vote came @ @ @ @ @ as the measure was approved 30-7 .

BOSTON (CBS) – The Massachusetts Senate passed a police reform bill after an hours-long session that concluded with a vote early Tuesday morning.
Lawmakers voted to pass the bill after debating all night. That vote came in just after 4 a.m. as the measure was approved 30-7.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
boston.cbslocal.com/2020/07/14/massachusetts-police-reform-bill-senate-vote/


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Looks like Fox News caves again…

Looks like Fox News caves again…

Daughter of Texas cop killed in ambush slammed for tweeting # bluelivesmatter The daughter of one of two cops killed @ @ @ @ @ McAllen , Texas , got slammed on Twitter — for posting the hashtag # bluelivesmatter @ @ @ @ @ her late dad , according to a report Sunday .
Savannah Chavez , the daughter @ @ @ @ @ , 39 , tweeted in a since-deleted post Saturday — the same day her father @ @ @ @ @ Garza , 45 , were gunned down responding to a domestic disturbance — “ Words @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m in , but I ’ m glad my dad is at peace @ @ @ @ @

Looks like Fox News caves again, Tucker Carlson announces "pre planned" vacation. Out rest of the week. Tucker was simply too strong a voice. The left had to get rid of him. Everyone should boycott Fox until he returns — Stonewall Jackson (@1776Stonewall) July 14, 2020
Mark McCloskey tells @TuckerCarlson that he believes he and his wife, who warded off protestors while armed with guns in St. Louis, will be indicted. He says it's the same DA who refused to charge looters. pic.twitter.com/rRFo5B5x0f — Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) July 14, 2020
ANTIFA is a fascist terror group openly committed to suppressing free speech through the use of violence and intimidation. #FACT — Dan Bongino (@dbongino) July 14, 2020
Daughter of Texas cop killed in ambush slammed for tweeting #bluelivesmatter
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The daughter of one of two cops killed in a weekend ambush in McAllen, Texas, got slammed on Twitter — for posting the hashtag #bluelivesmatter in a moving tribute to her late dad, according to a report Sunday. Savannah Chavez, the daughter of slain Officer Ismael Chavez, 39, tweeted in a since-deleted post Saturday — the same day her father and fellow McAllen cop Edelmiro Garza, 45, were gunned down responding to a domestic disturbance — “Words cannot describe the pain I’m in, but I’m glad my dad is at peace,” Heavy.com said.
Why do they insist on blocking the roads and attacking drivers? pic.twitter.com/q6R3cVFl8Q — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 13, 2020


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--CHINA FLOODING: 38 MILLION EVACUATED. Equivalent to evacuating the entire state of California

Now come the earthquakes… The CCP lease is being revoked .
The Mandate of Heaven is a Chinese political and @ @ @ @ @ a common belief that natural disasters such as famine and flood were divine retributions bearing @ @ @ @ @ displeasure with the ruler , so there would often be revolts following major disasters as @ @ @ @ @ as signs that the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn .
The Mandate of Heaven

China on highest flood alert as 38m people evacuated
asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/China-on-highest-flood-alert-as-38m-people-evacuated
Now come the earthquakes…
5 Earthquakes Hit China
www.theepochtimes.com/5-earthquakes-hit-china-chinese-gov-sanctions-us-lawmakers_3423391.html
The CCP lease is being revoked.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The Mandate of Heaven is a Chinese political and religious teaching. It is a common belief that natural disasters such as famine and flood were divine retributions bearing signs of Heaven’s displeasure with the ruler, so there would often be revolts following major disasters as the people saw these calamities as signs that the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn.
The Mandate of Heaven
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-15--Will We See A Second Great Lockdown?

Will We See A Second Great Lockdown?

In today ’ s DDDD ( data-driven DD ) , after a long hiatus due to less free time , we ’ ll take another broad view of the current state of the United States economy and public health .
We ’ ll be looking at some data to answer a few questions .
Namely , what the state of the pandemic is globally and in the United States , whether or not we will have a second Great Lockdown ( yes , historians are now calling this the Great Lockdown ) , statistics on the resumption of economic activity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis , and how this all might affect the stock market .
On face value , we can see the number of confirmed cases rising exponentially again in the United States , after a flattening of new cases during the lockdown .
This is in contrast to countries like New Zealand , which has been declared COVID-19 free for several weeks , and much of Europe which has significantly reduced new cases and has even reopened for tourism .
Within the US , the previous epicenter , New York , has seen a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moving towards re-opening .
On the other hand , another exponential rise in confirmed cases have been seen in several other states that have fully reopened , including California , Texas , and Florida , the three largest states in the union .
Part of the increase in new confirmed cases can be attributed to more widespread testing within these states , so we ’ ll have to look at confirmed deaths to really see if things are getting much worse .
If deaths weren ’ t rising , then the increase in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because this implies excessive testing and a much lower case fatality rate than expected .
It looks like there is a true increase in cases within these states .
Keep in mind that the new deaths statistics will lag behind the new infections rate by several weeks .
The new deaths rate has just started increasing exponentially again at the beginning of July , and this will become even worse , even if governors impose new lockdowns and restrictions because of the delay .
The second question to ask is if there will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California recently just announced a rollback in the lifting of restrictions in response to the new increase in cases , setting a precedent for other states to follow suit .
However , whether or not there will be a second wave of lockdowns in states is unclear , and depends on several key factors .
Despite initial opposition from health officials telling the public masks do not work , there has been a reversal in messaging , and the government is now encouraging people to wear masks in public .
Even Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since there is no longer a shortage .
The scientific consensus seems to be that surgical masks are effective in preventing the wearer from transmitting COVID-19 to others if they are sick , but not so effective from having the wearer catch it .
This has worked in many other countries , especially in Asia , where people might be publicly shamed or shunned for not wearing a mask and potentially exposing others to COVID-19 , which explains why places such as Japan and Taiwan have never seen real widespread transmission .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposition towards mask wearing , and wearing mandates may not be widely followed in some states .
According to one study , the critical mask adoption rate is calculated to be approximately 73 % for the epidemic to be contained .
If states are able to successfully convince their population to start wearing masks in public , above that rate , then a second lockdown will not be needed .
However , even with a mask mandate in California in all places where social distancing is not possible being enacted a month ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been widely followed enough to prevent a rise in new cases and deaths .
My personal opinion is that most people are now desensitized to COVID-19 news , and no longer care enough to wear masks in public , and hence the 73 % critical adoption rate will not be met in most states , even if there is a mandate implemented .
Especially important as it ’ s an election year , a new wave of lockdowns will likely be dependent on the political popularity of it .
I wasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about it , but based on media and political discourse , it looks like the concern right now is more with saving the economy , with the population desensitized towards COVID-19 deaths .
A Single Death is a Tragedy ; a Million Deaths is a Statistic .
This famous quote can be applied to virtually every natural disaster and massacre .
Nobody cared about COVID-19 until March when suddenly Tom Hanks and NBA players were diagnosed with it .
Everyone then started panicking and raided their local grocery store to buy up all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
So what will make people care about the pandemic again ?
This is probably the best indicator for when things will go crazy .
Once enough hospitals run out of ICU beds to treat COVID-19 patients , they will start having to turn away patients and the case fatality rate will skyrocket .
This will likely cause a media frenzy and re-instill widespread panic , shifting political opinion towards more lockdowns .
How close are we to this ?
This statistic is much harder to collect data on and interpret because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since it ’ ll be logistically difficult to relocate patients to the other side of a state if all the ICU beds in one county fills up , what matters isn ’ t necessarily how many beds are available in the state , but how many hospitals in each county have reached capacity .
Since that ’ s much harder to interpret and find data on , we ’ ll just look at the available ICU headroom , which does not include potential extra beds that may be created in response to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s pretty much safe , while Texas ’ is close to running out of beds and Florida has pretty much reached capacity .
Another thing to keep in mind is that it will be much more difficult to solve the lack of ICU beds in these states compared to New York .
The vast majority of the state ’ s population live at or near New York City , which is densely populated ( in case you ’ re geographically deficient ) .
This means the problem can easily be solved by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one central location , and sending a hospital ship to one place .
This can ’ t really be done in more sparsely populated states like Texas and Florida .
Based on this data , we ’ ll likely see some panic about COVID-19 again in the coming weeks with ICU beds running out in multiple states .
In general , the north east , which was the hardest hit in March , is still in the process of rolling back restrictions , with most other states having already fully reopened .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , like California , Florida , and Texas , are starting to impose new restrictions .
The stock market is starting to realize this , with a selloff happening once California announced a complete rollback of re-opening , closing all indoor dining in the state , and there ’ s fears that the other hotspot states might follow suit .
With a few weeks of many states completely reopening we ’ re now able to see what the best case scenario for the economy would be .
Although dramatically reduced from April highs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million new joblessness claims per week , way above pre-pandemic figures .
Furthermore , these new joblessness claims have stopped decreasing and are starting to slowly rise back up again , and this is with most of the economy re-opened .
Since full reopening in many states are still recent , we don ’ t have other economic indicators , such as personal savings rate and consumer confidence to see if people are actually re-engaged in the economy or people are still avoiding economic activity out of fear of COVID-19 .
Another thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on for a while is crude oil stocks .
Despite a rally back up from the ( negative ) lows on the May contract , WTI has been struggling to break $ 40 and recover to pre-COVID levels , although being near it .
While digging through some data provided weekly by the EIA , I noticed something interesting with crude oil stocks – despite re-opening , it ’ s still increasing .
Except for one small dip in the middle of May , crude oil stocks have been slowly rising throughout this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cutting back capacity .
Worse yet , an OPEC meeting scheduled later this week is expected to relax production cuts , putting even more crude oil into the supply .
Excluding the SPR ( Strategic Petroleum Reserve ) , the story looks slightly less scary for commercial producers .
This however does not mean we ’ re going to be seeing negative oil futures again , since producers have gotten smarter about avoiding a storage squeeze in Cushing .
Refinery utilization , although steadily increasing , is still significantly below pre-pandemic levels .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is that oil-based economic activity ( i.e .
travel and energy usage ) , while increasing , is still well below what it was in February .
Crude oil producers however , are still outproducing what refineries are taking in , and crude stocks have been steadily increasing throughout the entire reopening despite increasing oil prices .
Another thing to mention is the ticking time bomb that is the expiration of the unemployment boost provided by the federal government on July 31 , and the eviction crisis coming our way as eviction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forbearances are also starting to expire , with around 8 % of all active mortgages in forbearance .
According to one source , 36 % of renters and 30 % of homeowners did not pay their full housing payment in time .
This will probably take a few months to really see the effects of this , but it ’ s definitely something to consider .
How This Might Affect Stocks We ’ re already seeing the first waves of bankruptcies , mostly from companies that were already in a poor financial position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For the bull case , most of the rally for the past few months have mostly been concentrated in tech stocks , which are much less directly affected by the pandemic , with some companies like Amazon even benefitting from it .
They ’ re usually very financially healthy , and can easily operate in a pandemic , if not benefitting from it .
In fact , some stocks like AMZN , TSLA , ZM , and SHOP have gone parabolic in the past few weeks , which is usually not a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , most economists predict a prolonged U-shaped or L-shaped economic recovery , and a wave of bankruptcies for companies that couldn ’ t be rescued by the Fed .
As mentioned above , I also believe we ’ re going to be seeing a second wave of lockdowns in the coming weeks as ICU beds start running out , making the economic situation even worse .
Eventually , a shrinking economy , mass unemployment , and reduced spending will ultimately hurt the earnings of even the tech stocks .
GOOG and FB earnings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ AMZN and SHOP earnings rely on consumers buying things .
Another argument for the bull side is that due to monetary policies such as QE and 0 % treasury yields , along with the unattractiveness of emerging markets in the current economic climate , there is a massive modern savings glut – money that has nowhere else to go .
This by itself could take another essay to explain , so I might talk about this more in a future post .
For those that have been following me the past few months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ briefly joining the bulls for a few weeks , then 🦘gang , I ’ ve now converted back to a 🌈🐻 .
My only major position right now are VIX calls , with July , Aug , and Sept expiry , which I entered a few weeks ago when VIX was at 26 .
There ’ s a few reasons for this – I still believe in my long-term thesis that the stock market is in a bubble , with the past few months accelerating the inflation of it , and my belief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 response , forcing the government to lockdown again once ICU beds run out .
I ’ m no longer day trading , and will swing trade my current positions when a good selling opportunity comes – I ’ ll keep this post updated if I sell .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by ASoftEngStudent
In today’s DDDD (data-driven DD), after a long hiatus due to less free time, we’ll take another broad view of the current state of the United States economy and public health. We’ll be looking at some data to answer a few questions. Namely, what the state of the pandemic is globally and in the United States, whether or not we will have a second Great Lockdown (yes, historians are now calling this the Great Lockdown), statistics on the resumption of economic activity, and the looming unemployment and eviction crisis, and how this all might affect the stock market.
COVID-19 Data
On face value, we can see the number of confirmed cases rising exponentially again in the United States, after a flattening of new cases during the lockdown.
New cases by country
This is in contrast to countries like New Zealand, which has been declared COVID-19 free for several weeks, and much of Europe which has significantly reduced new cases and has even reopened for tourism. Within the US, the previous epicenter, New York, has seen a drastic reduction in new cases and is moving towards re-opening.
NY New Cases
On the other hand, another exponential rise in confirmed cases have been seen in several other states that have fully reopened, including California, Texas, and Florida, the three largest states in the union.
California New Cases
Texas New Cases
Florida New Cases
Part of the increase in new confirmed cases can be attributed to more widespread testing within these states, so we’ll have to look at confirmed deaths to really see if things are getting much worse. If deaths weren’t rising, then the increase in cases could even be considered good news because this implies excessive testing and a much lower case fatality rate than expected.
California New Deaths
Texas New Deaths
Florida New Deaths
It looks like there is a true increase in cases within these states. Keep in mind that the new deaths statistics will lag behind the new infections rate by several weeks. The new deaths rate has just started increasing exponentially again at the beginning of July, and this will become even worse, even if governors impose new lockdowns and restrictions because of the delay.
Will a Second Lockdown Happen?
The second question to ask is if there will be a second wave of lockdowns. California recently just announced a rollback in the lifting of restrictions in response to the new increase in cases, setting a precedent for other states to follow suit. However, whether or not there will be a second wave of lockdowns in states is unclear, and depends on several key factors.
Mask Usage
Despite initial opposition from health officials telling the public masks do not work, there has been a reversal in messaging, and the government is now encouraging people to wear masks in public. Even Trump is wearing one in public now, especially since there is no longer a shortage. The scientific consensus seems to be that surgical masks are effective in preventing the wearer from transmitting COVID-19 to others if they are sick, but not so effective from having the wearer catch it. This has worked in many other countries, especially in Asia, where people might be publicly shamed or shunned for not wearing a mask and potentially exposing others to COVID-19, which explains why places such as Japan and Taiwan have never seen real widespread transmission. However, in the US there is significant opposition towards mask wearing, and wearing mandates may not be widely followed in some states. According to one study, the critical mask adoption rate is calculated to be approximately 73% for the epidemic to be contained. If states are able to successfully convince their population to start wearing masks in public, above that rate, then a second lockdown will not be needed. However, even with a mask mandate in California in all places where social distancing is not possible being enacted a month ago, it does not seem to have been widely followed enough to prevent a rise in new cases and deaths. My personal opinion is that most people are now desensitized to COVID-19 news, and no longer care enough to wear masks in public, and hence the 73% critical adoption rate will not be met in most states, even if there is a mandate implemented.
Political Opinion
Especially important as it’s an election year, a new wave of lockdowns will likely be dependent on the political popularity of it. I wasn’t able to find any reliable recent polls about it, but based on media and political discourse, it looks like the concern right now is more with saving the economy, with the population desensitized towards COVID-19 deaths. A Single Death is a Tragedy; a Million Deaths is a Statistic. This famous quote can be applied to virtually every natural disaster and massacre. Nobody cared about COVID-19 until March when suddenly Tom Hanks and NBA players were diagnosed with it. Everyone then started panicking and raided their local grocery store to buy up all the toilet paper (for some reason). So what will make people care about the pandemic again?
ICU Beds
This is probably the best indicator for when things will go crazy. Once enough hospitals run out of ICU beds to treat COVID-19 patients, they will start having to turn away patients and the case fatality rate will skyrocket. This will likely cause a media frenzy and re-instill widespread panic, shifting political opinion towards more lockdowns. How close are we to this? This statistic is much harder to collect data on and interpret because available ICU beds tend to be fragmented. Since it’ll be logistically difficult to relocate patients to the other side of a state if all the ICU beds in one county fills up, what matters isn’t necessarily how many beds are available in the state, but how many hospitals in each county have reached capacity. Since that’s much harder to interpret and find data on, we’ll just look at the available ICU headroom, which does not include potential extra beds that may be created in response to COVID-19.
California ICU Headroom
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Texas ICU Headroom
Florida ICU Headroom
From this data, California’s pretty much safe, while Texas’ is close to running out of beds and Florida has pretty much reached capacity.
Another thing to keep in mind is that it will be much more difficult to solve the lack of ICU beds in these states compared to New York. The vast majority of the state’s population live at or near New York City, which is densely populated (in case you’re geographically deficient). This means the problem can easily be solved by simply adding a bunch of beds in one central location, and sending a hospital ship to one place. This can’t really be done in more sparsely populated states like Texas and Florida. Based on this data, we’ll likely see some panic about COVID-19 again in the coming weeks with ICU beds running out in multiple states.
The Reopening, Oil, and Economic Activity
The state of reopening
In general, the north east, which was the hardest hit in March, is still in the process of rolling back restrictions, with most other states having already fully reopened. However, many of the new hot spots, like California, Florida, and Texas, are starting to impose new restrictions. The stock market is starting to realize this, with a selloff happening once California announced a complete rollback of re-opening, closing all indoor dining in the state, and there’s fears that the other hotspot states might follow suit.
New Jobless Claims
With a few weeks of many states completely reopening we’re now able to see what the best case scenario for the economy would be. Although dramatically reduced from April highs, there’s still over 1 million new joblessness claims per week, way above pre-pandemic figures. Furthermore, these new joblessness claims have stopped decreasing and are starting to slowly rise back up again, and this is with most of the economy re-opened. Since full reopening in many states are still recent, we don’t have other economic indicators, such as personal savings rate and consumer confidence to see if people are actually re-engaged in the economy or people are still avoiding economic activity out of fear of COVID-19.
Another thing I’ve been keeping an eye on for a while is crude oil stocks. Despite a rally back up from the (negative) lows on the May contract, WTI has been struggling to break $40 and recover to pre-COVID levels, although being near it. While digging through some data provided weekly by the EIA, I noticed something interesting with crude oil stocks – despite re-opening, it’s still increasing.
Crude Oil Stored (kbbl)
Except for one small dip in the middle of May, crude oil stocks have been slowly rising throughout this entire re-opening, despite many oil producers cutting back capacity. Worse yet, an OPEC meeting scheduled later this week is expected to relax production cuts, putting even more crude oil into the supply. Excluding the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), the story looks slightly less scary for commercial producers.
Crude Oil Stored for Commercial Use (kbbl)
This however does not mean we’re going to be seeing negative oil futures again, since producers have gotten smarter about avoiding a storage squeeze in Cushing.
Crude Oil Stored for Commercial Use @ Cushing (kbbl)
Refinery utilization, although steadily increasing, is still significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
Refinery Utilization Rate
The conclusion that can be drawn from this is that oil-based economic activity (i.e. travel and energy usage), while increasing, is still well below what it was in February. Crude oil producers however, are still outproducing what refineries are taking in, and crude stocks have been steadily increasing throughout the entire reopening despite increasing oil prices.
The Looming Housing Crisis
Another thing to mention is the ticking time bomb that is the expiration of the unemployment boost provided by the federal government on July 31, and the eviction crisis coming our way as eviction courts reopen and process them. Mortgage forbearances are also starting to expire, with around 8% of all active mortgages in forbearance. According to one source, 36% of renters and 30% of homeowners did not pay their full housing payment in time. This will probably take a few months to really see the effects of this, but it’s definitely something to consider.
How This Might Affect Stocks
We’re already seeing the first waves of bankruptcies, mostly from companies that were already in a poor financial position like Hertz, JCPenny, and GNC. For the bull case, most of the rally for the past few months have mostly been concentrated in tech stocks, which are much less directly affected by the pandemic, with some companies like Amazon even benefitting from it. They’re usually very financially healthy, and can easily operate in a pandemic, if not benefitting from it. In fact, some stocks like AMZN, TSLA, ZM, and SHOP have gone parabolic in the past few weeks, which is usually not a good sign. On the bear case, most economists predict a prolonged U-shaped or L-shaped economic recovery, and a wave of bankruptcies for companies that couldn’t be rescued by the Fed. As mentioned above, I also believe we’re going to be seeing a second wave of lockdowns in the coming weeks as ICU beds start running out, making the economic situation even worse. Eventually, a shrinking economy, mass unemployment, and reduced spending will ultimately hurt the earnings of even the tech stocks. GOOG and FB earnings ultimately rely on businesses buying ads. AMZN and SHOP earnings rely on consumers buying things. Another argument for the bull side is that due to monetary policies such as QE and 0% treasury yields, along with the unattractiveness of emerging markets in the current economic climate, there is a massive modern savings glut – money that has nowhere else to go. This by itself could take another essay to explain, so I might talk about this more in a future post.
My Positions
For those that have been following me the past few months, my positions remain unchanged. After briefly joining the bulls for a few weeks, then 🦘gang, I’ve now converted back to a 🌈🐻. My only major position right now are VIX calls, with July, Aug, and Sept expiry, which I entered a few weeks ago when VIX was at 26. There’s a few reasons for this – I still believe in my long-term thesis that the stock market is in a bubble, with the past few months accelerating the inflation of it, and my belief that the US will eventually mishandle the COVID-19 response, forcing the government to lockdown again once ICU beds run out. I’m no longer day trading, and will swing trade my current positions when a good selling opportunity comes – I’ll keep this post updated if I sell.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-15--An Experimental COVID-19 Vaccine Being Rushed Through Development Will Require More Than One Injecti

An Experimental COVID-19 Vaccine Being Rushed Through Development Will Require More Than One Injection

A lot of Americans are assuming that eventually a newly developed COVID-19 vaccine will put an end to this pandemic .
And many of those same people are assuming that all they will have to do is get one shot and they will be protected from the virus for their rest of their lives .
Unfortunately , that is not the way that it is going to work .
As you will see below , the experimental vaccine that is making the most headlines will require two shots , and those two shots will be a month apart .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few months , those that get the vaccine will need a “ booster shot ” very rapidly after the first two injections , and then another one , and then another one , and then more “ booster shots ” at regular intervals in perpetuity .
Of course most Americans won ’ t want to submit to an endless series of shots that only provide very brief periods of protection at best , but authorities will be very strongly pushing people to do so .
The experimental vaccine that I am referring to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data from the phase 1 clinical trial was published on Tuesday… Also Tuesday , Moderna published data from its phase 1 clinical trial in the New England Journal of Medicine .
That trial , which involved 45 participants , was meant to test a new drug ’ s safety , not its effectiveness .
But the company said results from all 45 participants showed they developed antibodies key to fighting the virus at levels up to four times the amount found in patients who got sick and then recovered from the virus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the stock market soared .
But one expert that was interviewed by NBC News cautioned that the clinical trial did not show if the antibodies actually lead to immunity , and it also did not show how long such immunity would last… What we do know is that three separate studies have now shown that COVID-19 antibodies fade very , very rapidly for those that have tested positive for the virus .
In fact , some victims no longer test positive for antibodies after just a few weeks .
If a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only lasts for “ a few weeks ” , it will essentially be completely worthless .
And we also know that an increasing number of Americans appear to be catching COVID-19 again very quickly after their first battle with the virus .
For example , NBC News recently featured the case of 56-year-old nurse Sherry Wellman of Youngstown , Ohio… The test showed that she had COVID-19 once again .
There have been many other cases such as this , and I included a few of them in a recent article .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hear this , but just like other coronaviruses you can catch COVID-19 over and over again .
A COVID-19 vaccine is probably the most anticipated vaccine in modern American history , and right now there is a worldwide race to produce one that is safe and effective .
President Trump has launched “ Operation Warp Speed ” in an effort to have the U.S. be the first one to produce a vaccine , and right now it appears that the experimental Moderna vaccine is the most promising candidate .
According to Yahoo News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two doses ” … So that means two separate trips to the doctor , and a lot of Americans are not going to be excited about that .
At this point , we do not know if the Moderna vaccine will be effective , and we certainly don ’ t know if it will be safe .
In the clinical trial , “ more than half the study participants ” reported some very alarming side effects… Don ’ t you love how they claim that there were “ no serious side effects ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a whole bunch of very serious side effects that were reported by more than half the people in the study ?
To me , if a shot gives you “ fatigue , headache , chills , fever and pain ” , that is a major red flag .
But one “ vaccine expert ” says that such side effects are “ a small price to pay ” … Of course vaccine safety advocates have been told similar things for decades when confronting the industry with horrific stories of vaccine side effects .
Rushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a very , very bad idea , and it is imperative that safety concerns be fully addressed .
Because we certainly do not want a vaccine pushed on the American public that will do even more damage than the virus itself is doing .
And of course there are tens of millions of Americans that will not want to take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances .
But there will be lots of people that will line up for the shots as soon as they are available , and most of them will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protection .
However , it is extremely unlikely that any vaccine will produce as much immunity as actually having the disease does , and at this point we know that actually having the virus produces only a few months of immunity at best .
So the truth is that all of this hope that a “ vaccine ” will end this pandemic is likely just a mirage , but the mainstream media will likely attempt to keep this mirage going for as long as possible .

by Michael Snyder
A lot of Americans are assuming that eventually a newly developed COVID-19 vaccine will put an end to this pandemic. And many of those same people are assuming that all they will have to do is get one shot and they will be protected from the virus for their rest of their lives. Unfortunately, that is not the way that it is going to work. As you will see below, the experimental vaccine that is making the most headlines will require two shots, and those two shots will be a month apart. And because COVID-19 antibodies disappear in just a few months, those that get the vaccine will need a “booster shot” very rapidly after the first two injections, and then another one, and then another one, and then more “booster shots” at regular intervals in perpetuity. Of course most Americans won’t want to submit to an endless series of shots that only provide very brief periods of protection at best, but authorities will be very strongly pushing people to do so.
The experimental vaccine that I am referring to is being developed by Moderna, and data from the phase 1 clinical trial was published on Tuesday…
Also Tuesday, Moderna published data from its phase 1 clinical trial in the New England Journal of Medicine. That trial, which involved 45 participants, was meant to test a new drug’s safety, not its effectiveness. But the company said results from all 45 participants showed they developed antibodies key to fighting the virus at levels up to four times the amount found in patients who got sick and then recovered from the virus.
Many analysts were encouraged by these results, and the stock market soared.
But one expert that was interviewed by NBC News cautioned that the clinical trial did not show if the antibodies actually lead to immunity, and it also did not show how long such immunity would last…
Gonsenhauser, who is not involved with any COVID-19 vaccine research, cautioned that while the findings are promising, scientists have not yet shown that COVID-19 antibodies lead to immunity, and if so, how long that immunity lasts.
What we do know is that three separate studies have now shown that COVID-19 antibodies fade very, very rapidly for those that have tested positive for the virus. In fact, some victims no longer test positive for antibodies after just a few weeks.
If a COVID-19 vaccine produces “immunity” that only lasts for “a few weeks”, it will essentially be completely worthless.
And we also know that an increasing number of Americans appear to be catching COVID-19 again very quickly after their first battle with the virus. For example, NBC News recently featured the case of 56-year-old nurse Sherry Wellman of Youngstown, Ohio…
After an initial positive test for the virus in March, two additional COVID-19 tests in April were negative. It was welcome news to Wellman, whose job as a nurse required her to have two negative tests before returning to work. But a month later, she had to go to the hospital for chest pains, and was tested again.
And guess what?
The test showed that she had COVID-19 once again.
There have been many other cases such as this, and I included a few of them in a recent article. A lot of people may not want to hear this, but just like other coronaviruses you can catch COVID-19 over and over again.
A COVID-19 vaccine is probably the most anticipated vaccine in modern American history, and right now there is a worldwide race to produce one that is safe and effective. President Trump has launched “Operation Warp Speed” in an effort to have the U.S. be the first one to produce a vaccine, and right now it appears that the experimental Moderna vaccine is the most promising candidate. According to Yahoo News, the Moderna vaccine will require “two doses”…
The vaccine requires two doses, a month apart.
So that means two separate trips to the doctor, and a lot of Americans are not going to be excited about that.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
At this point, we do not know if the Moderna vaccine will be effective, and we certainly don’t know if it will be safe.
In the clinical trial, “more than half the study participants” reported some very alarming side effects…
There were no serious side effects. But more than half the study participants reported flu-like reactions to the shots that aren’t uncommon with other vaccines — fatigue, headache, chills, fever and pain at the injection site. For three participants given the highest dose, those reactions were more severe; that dose isn’t being pursued.
Don’t you love how they claim that there were “no serious side effects” and then they go on to list a whole bunch of very serious side effects that were reported by more than half the people in the study?
To me, if a shot gives you “fatigue, headache, chills, fever and pain”, that is a major red flag.
But one “vaccine expert” says that such side effects are “a small price to pay”…
“Small price to pay for protection against COVID,” said Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University Medical Center, a vaccine expert who wasn’t involved with the study.
Of course vaccine safety advocates have been told similar things for decades when confronting the industry with horrific stories of vaccine side effects.
Rushing a vaccine through the development process is a very, very bad idea, and it is imperative that safety concerns be fully addressed.
Because we certainly do not want a vaccine pushed on the American public that will do even more damage than the virus itself is doing.
And of course there are tens of millions of Americans that will not want to take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances.
But there will be lots of people that will line up for the shots as soon as they are available, and most of them will assume that the shots will provide long-term protection.
However, it is extremely unlikely that any vaccine will produce as much immunity as actually having the disease does, and at this point we know that actually having the virus produces only a few months of immunity at best.
So the truth is that all of this hope that a “vaccine” will end this pandemic is likely just a mirage, but the mainstream media will likely attempt to keep this mirage going for as long as possible.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-15--Why I am so bullish on Walmart (WMT)

Why I am so bullish on Walmart (WMT)

Walmart has recently announced it ’ s subscription service to compete with Amazon prime called Walmart+ Walmart+ aims to provide : same-day delivery , discounts on fuel , and early access to Walmart deals .
Not to mention , the cost of their subscription is annually cheaper than Amazon ’ s Prime .
Now , Amazon has been dominating the online retail space up to this point solely because of Prime 2-day shipping .
We ’ re living in a society that wants everything on demand .
To Amazon , this is no secret .
Amazon currently has 175 fulfillment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ located in North America .
However , it will not be long before Walmart ’ s same-day delivery makes Amazon Prime look like snail mail .
Walmart ’ s traditional brick and mortar locations all have the potential to become fulfillment centers .
Walmart has recently partnered with the eCommerce giant Shopify in an attempt to compete with amazon ’ s monopoly in the online retail space .
That ’ s over 20x as many fulfillment centers as amazon !
Walmart also claims to have locations within 10 miles of 90 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so close to 90 % of the population , 60 minute delivery times are not farfetched .
60-minute delivery will effectively conquer the online retail space and render Amazon Prime 2-day shipping , snail mail .
In real life , something always happens .
When it does , Walmart ’ s same-day delivery ’ s got our back .
Walmart not only aims to help people save money with their low prices on everyday items , but they ’ re also preparing to help people live better by stepping into the health care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by triplej9k
Walmart has recently announced it’s subscription service to compete with Amazon prime called Walmart+
Walmart+ aims to provide: same-day delivery, discounts on fuel, and early access to Walmart deals.
Not to mention, the cost of their subscription is annually cheaper than Amazon’s Prime.
Now, Amazon has been dominating the online retail space up to this point solely because of Prime 2-day shipping.
See, people pay for convenience.
We’re living in a society that wants everything on demand.
To Amazon, this is no secret.
Amazon currently has 175 fulfillment centers around the world and 75 are located in North America.
However, it will not be long before Walmart’s same-day delivery makes Amazon Prime look like snail mail.
Here’s why:
Walmart’s traditional brick and mortar locations all have the potential to become fulfillment centers.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Walmart has recently partnered with the eCommerce giant Shopify in an attempt to compete with amazon’s monopoly in the online retail space.
Walmart has over 4,000 potential fulfillment centers.
That’s over 20x as many fulfillment centers as amazon!
Walmart also claims to have locations within 10 miles of 90% of the U.S. population.
Because Walmart is so close to 90% of the population, 60 minute delivery times are not farfetched.
60-minute delivery will effectively conquer the online retail space and render Amazon Prime 2-day shipping, snail mail.
In time-sensitive/last-minute situations, Walmart’s same-day delivery is practical.
In real life, something always happens.
When it does, Walmart’s same-day delivery’s got our back.
Walmart is also entering health care.
Walmart not only aims to help people save money with their low prices on everyday items, but they’re also preparing to help people live better by stepping into the health care industry.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-15--[New York Time] Massachusetts Sues Uber and Lyft Over the Status of Drivers. The suit, made public o

[New York Time] Massachusetts Sues Uber and Lyft Over the Status of Drivers. The suit, made public on Tuesday, makes Massachusetts the second state after California to challenge how Uber and Lyft classify drivers and could deal another blow to their business model.

Uber and Lyft should treat their drivers in Massachusetts as employees with the right to receive benefits , instead of @ @ @ @ @ , the state ’ s attorney general said in a lawsuit filed against the ride-hailing @ @ @ @ @ made public on Tuesday , makes Massachusetts the second state after California to challenge how @ @ @ @ @ and could deal another blow to their business model .
Maura Healey , the state @ @ @ @ @ mailed in the complaint to Massachusetts Superior Court in Suffolk County .
Uber , Lyft @ @ @ @ @ companies have maintained that their drivers are independent contractors who are ineligible for benefits like @ @ @ @ @ off and unemployment insurance .
But the companies are facing increasing pressure to reclassify drivers @ @ @ @ @ have greater recourse to push back for better working conditions and pay .

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/technology/massachusetts-sues-uber-lyft.html
Uber and Lyft should treat their drivers in Massachusetts as employees with the right to receive benefits, instead of misclassifying them as independent contractors, the state’s attorney general said in a lawsuit filed against the ride-hailing companies.
The suit, made public on Tuesday, makes Massachusetts the second state after California to challenge how Uber and Lyft classify drivers and could deal another blow to their business model. Maura Healey, the state’s attorney general, mailed in the complaint to Massachusetts Superior Court in Suffolk County.
Uber, Lyft and other so-called gig economy companies have maintained that their drivers are independent contractors who are ineligible for benefits like sick leave, paid time off and unemployment insurance. But the companies are facing increasing pressure to reclassify drivers as employees, who would have greater recourse to push back for better working conditions and pay.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-15--eBay DD Due Diligence. C-19 is about to reboot this rocketship

eBay could SOON become pound for pound one of the most profitable enterprises outside of gambling and drugs .
Corona flips the script .
Bull Case $ 180 Bear Case $ 220 Future Price Target maybe more .
We will see how peoples mind changes when we see earnings .
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll ( I like shares on this one as I expect the company to pay dividends ) X Multiples of 100 for future CC .
7/31 $ 80C ( These look the juiciest RN ) Ebay is an online auction house @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and spend an evening or day at the Auction .
It is fun and will help you understand why previous CEO ’ s tanked this awesome company with their stupidity .
Hammering a Diamond into a square hole .
Worked for an auction house 4 years .
If you go to a well run local auction you will see diverse people , successful auction houses have a customer makeup like this : 30 % Hustlers and People involved with the auctions ( Consignees etc ) 20 % Rich people ( Rich people love @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about Sotherbys I ’ m talking about a normal sized city weekly auction there will be lots of rich people there ) 40 % Normal people that either like the thrill or value seekers .
This is important when we talk about bad CEO decisions .
You have to know your audience .
Ebay started out with this dude selling a broken laser printer , Pierre Omidayer .
It grew quickly and he brought in professional help .
This can be a good thing as founders can get in the way of growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be CEO .
Her tenure was unimpressive and she was responsible for the first of two massive blunders that decapitated eBay growth .
Ebay was growing and the internet was starting to get widespread use .
By the early 2000s people started to talk about WEB 2.0 and for some reason certain people thought that WEB 2.0 meant being fancy .
Ebay did a massive redesign that was hated by most people .
Broadband internet was in it ’ s infancy and the focus on form over function was frustrating for low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complicated and took longer to load .
Additionally it stunted the pathway that would eventually appear for mobile growth .
The remnants of this design linger today .
Screen Cap of the AOLfication of eBay late 2003 I believe one of the big problems was rendering the menus in AJAX or something similar , very slow to load in that era Here we can see the failure in line graph form , ( These things lag ) eBay share price got hammered .
One the reasons for the hammering was lackluster earnings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ redesign failure as it turned off existing and new customers .
Link to image as it loos like this sub doesn ’ t allow embeded images Project Ugly-ify and Slow-ify eBay looks to have lopped off growth and momentum for the share price .
Meg Whitmans tenure at ebay neutered growth .
One could blame Whitman for doing a lot of damage to eBay growth but she will largely be forgotten after you learn about the FLAMING DUMPSTER FIRE OF A CEO that is John Donahoe .
In 2008 eBay hired Donahoe to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the worst hire in the history of all hires .
Don ’ t take my word for it .
In 2014 Carl Icahn said eBay was the worst run company he had ever seen .
Carl Icahn says eBay is the worst run company he has ever seen Donahoe had series after series of bad decision .
He basically went to war with small and medium sellers ( eBay ’ s actual bread and butter customers ) and went to great lengths to attract large corporate clients .
( The worst type of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his most profitable customers .
Donahoe gave steep discounts in fees in order to attract corporate customers .
Companies like Target started to sell on eBays platform .
( Most are now gone because within a few short years the internet was mature enough that they could start their own platforms ) In early 2013 he implemented eBay ’ s search algorithm ( Cassini I believe it was called ) Previous to this Algo eBay was just a dumb search engine .
With the Algo , eBay could control visibility of items on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Best Match .
With this Donahoe is about to fire maybe 20 % of his most profitable customers and give the Amazon marketplace a flood of new users .
This idiot was trying to turn an auction house into the next Amazon .
Instead he just put Amazon growth on steroids and shoots himself in the foot .
Cassini was used to ban eBay ’ s customers .
DROVES OF THEM Donahoe decided that any problems on eBay were caused by sellers and he declared war on the people that were his customers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was eBay implementation of strict guidelines for their sellers .
DSR = 4 categories , each category was rated 1-5 with 5 being good .
The system treated 1 & 2s as a failure .
For Example Customer was unhappy with an item they received for whatever reason .
If someone rated a part of the transaction a 2 they would get a ding against their DSR .
Problem is they treated all categories the same and the thresholds were very stringent .
For every 1000 transactions a seller had to have LESS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Cassini without a search penalty .
If the 10 threshold was crossed ( Which is 98.9 % or less good rating ) they would be penalized in the search standing and go under probation .
If they crossed 20/1000 or 97.9 % or less positive approval rating they would BAN YOU FROM THE PLATFORM .
YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY John DONAHOE in is infinite wisdom decided that sellers with as high as a 97.9 % positive transaction rating were disposable .
I ’ ve NEVER SEEN SOMETHING SO STUPID IN MY LIFE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ implemented a system where a 98.9 % POSITIVE rating has a penalty and 97.9 % positive is a ban .
( Check the feedback on tons of Amazon marketplace sellers and you will see how ridiculous a threshold this was ) What was even more ridiculous was in the beginning all categories were treated the same .
For example Books were treated the same way as used women ’ s clothing .
Certain categories like womens clothing were DECIMATED by sellers being banned .
People who had been on the platform for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positive feedback selling USED WOMENS CLOTHING were banned left and right .
It gets worse , remember how at 98.9 % they would put you on probation ?
Some people called this the DEATH SPIRAL as if you were on probation the new “ Best Match ” system would lower your search standing .
So if you were some poor schmuck who had sold 397 used pieces of womens clothing that year and just 4 of them were unhappy with the experience .
You ’ d go on probation with little to no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hammer .
I ’ ve read many period era messageboard posts of long time sellers in probation trying to do EVERYTHING they could to raise their DSR to get out of probation but had zero visibility with the new algo , they were just left to wither on the vine hoping fruitlessly to turn things around .
Most of them didn ’ t know it YET but eventually as people started putting the pieces together there was no chance of them escaping the Death Spiral .
Gaggles of people spent MONTHS trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them realized they were screwed , there was nothing they could do about it because of the Algos .
These sellers turned on ebay and took others with them .
If you notice during this time period AMAZON marketplace took off .
Daddy Bezo ’ s had a flood of experienced online traders who simply shifted their operations to the less popular ( at the time ) and more expensive platform ( at the time ) .
It was either that or close shop .
MANY CHOSE TO CLOSE SHOP .
The stupidity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Medium sellers were the real money makers .
eBay charges around a 9 % fee with a cap of $ 250 per transaction .
Which is more profitable ?
The answer is in the nature of marketplaces .
Target sells to 5,000 customers and that is the end of the story .
Small to medium sized sellers tend to keep the money in the marketplace .
User A sells to user B for $ 100 User B can turn around and take that $ 100 and buy something he needs for himself or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ C can then do the same .
Wash , Rinse , Repeat .
Target selling $ 100 is a one way street while Small to Medium users can be a continuous money carousel .
Donahoe in his infinite ignorance ran off many of his prime sellers .
Ultimately sellers are your customers as they are the one ’ s who pay the fees .
He jump started his competition whom he was stupidly trying to emulate .
The important thing to understand about eBay is their product ( An Auction ) is easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this Rolex costs about the same to service this listing for a rug • They gave these corporations steep discounts to use the platform • The internet was maturing and we were just a few years from all these corporations having their own web presence • Robbed dollars and eyeballs from your bread and butter .
Auction and Store listings of small to medium sellers .
• Robs future revenue from carousel customers who return money to the marketplace and gives it to corporate customers who do not return dollars and are using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ build the infrastructure to replace you .
DING DING DING This dude declared war on some of his best customers and tried to make eBay an ugly corporate shill and would eventually lead to the invasion of cheap Chinese stuff ( eBay is now combating that ) We can see the results of his war on customers with this graph .
eBay ’ s growth and revenue was decimated by this idiot and you can see the results once the earnings were reported ( Which lagged the implementation of his stupidity ) Donohoe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been it ’ s prime growth years and funneled those customers to his biggest competitor .
eBay can make far more with less because of the nature of it ’ s bread and butter customers .
Many auction enthusiasts are high income types .
eBay has better demographics financially than it ’ s competitors .
There is even a fairly large industry of arbitrage where people sell items they source elsewhere ( Like amazon ) and basically drop ship them off as eBay sells because some stuff sells at a premium on eBay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transaction compared to similar industries and can capture a significant amount of money to return within the marketplace .
Similar to sales tax , that dollar can bounce around within the marketplace and eBay can take it ’ s 9 % cut every time it switches hands .
Interesting side rabbit hole that arises during the Donahoe years .
Donahoe was obsessed with attacking his own customers .
This was commonly followed in an industry blog called AuctionWeb and then eventually named ecommercebytes .
Run by the Steiner Couple Here is an article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of sellers They reported on all of eBay ’ s policy changes and basically called them out for being the giant window lickers they were .
It ruffled a few feathers within the organization and now 6+ employees of eBay are being charged with crimes like harassment and stalking .
Really a crazy story .
DONAHOE is to blame for the policies and culture that allowed this to happen .
He should go to jail over just what he did to the share price .
During all of this foot shooting was when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ WORST RUN COMPANY HE HAD EVER SEEN One of the problems was the incestuous nature of eBay ’ s relationship with Paypal and the board members who presided over both .
They basically spent a decade doing what was best for the board and not what was best for the Shareholders , employees and customers of eBay .
This is now not so much a problem because many of those relationships no longer exist .
In the aftermath the other pieces have found increased market value and eBay has been suppressed due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Donahoe administration and bad perception .
eBay should have been worth more as an individual piece and it ’ s was the one who took the financial hits .
PayPal has a 113 P/E ( I ’ m not saying this is the best metric to judge a company I ’ m just using it for illustration ) If eBay traded at Paypal P/E it would be worth $ 660 So what ’ s the catalyst to the eBay Rocket Ship that is about to take off ?
CORONA .
Corona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this shake up will jolt eBay to it ’ s full potential .
Alexa 90 days , even better at 140 and this growth is against the normal ebb of seasonal business Over the past 4 months as far as I can tell eBay has increased traffic by as much as 18 % + which is pretty AMAZING for a very mature internet company .
Even more amazing when you take into account that this is normally eBays slow period .
Traffic is normally on the downturn .
YOY I am curious how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m guessing 45 % YOY increase in traffic for the Month of May & June April May June July are eBay ’ s 4 slowest months and the July 28th earnings will encompass 3 of those 4 months .
During the slowest time of year eBay went from the mid 50 ’ s to the lower 40 ’ s for it ’ s spot in total Internet Traffic .
A HUGE shift against the normal tide of business cycles .
Traffic for last 90 days .
Up much more over entire Corona Period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ view 150 days out I ’ ve spent a few hours trawling eBay seller message boards .
Within this quarter I have heard of increases in per transactions and a decrease in “ Best Offers ” which means better margins for sellers and more fees for eBay .
I attribute this to Corona disrupting normal supply chains .
eBay has been established for many years so boomers when they can ’ t find something are like “ Oh Yeah EBAY.
” Many sellers report increased sells in business related categories and more aged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market shift towards online from some of the traditionally Bricks and Mortar industries .
eBay has a very successful and well made app .
Sellers are seeing increased usage amongst younger buyers/sellers whom are either bored with the lockdowns or looking for side income after losing their jobs .
Remember when we mentioned 500 small sellers being worth more than one big corporate client ?
This will be obtained with an army of people using the app on their cell phones .
Corona is going to get the attention of customers they lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the platform they remember , millennials and new users when they discover the well made app will come online .
I ’ ve added the eBay App to my phone it is very good and has very customizable search features .
The Bear case for eBay is even more , if Corona turns out to be worse ( It ’ s not ) everything online just becomes more valuable .
So what is eBay worth ?
Well it ’ s a better investment IMO than Paypal Mercardo Libre is worth more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it is not even a top 1000 worldwide website while eBay is top 50 .
Plus it doesn ’ t even turn a profit .
If you have any MELI stock sell half of it and buy eBay in addition to whatever you would buy if you didn ’ t own MELI do the same for PayPal as well IMO .
If eBay was valued like MELI it would be worth Tesla numbers Mercardo Libre has a 25 % bigger market cap than eBay and doesn ’ t turn a profit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just to be on par with MELI and it shouldn ’ t even be in the same ballpark .
Etsy is just outside of the Top 100 for web traffic and has a 181 P/E if eBay was trading like ETSY it would be trading at $ 1090 a share If eBay was valued like ETSY it would trade for $ 1090 Channel Advisor is a company that grew out of offering services for eBay and while it works on multiple platforms it ’ s use was born from eBay and it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Advisor it would be worth $ 363 Corona shifted a lot of users to the eBay marketplace because of busted supply chains .
They now have an Okay website and an EXCELLENT APP .
This increased use comes during the traditional low tide of eBay traffic and if eBay leans into the coming quarters their revenue is going to skyrocket .
Corona was the catalysts to wake everybody up to what eBay could do and what it should be worth .
EBAY should be one of the most profitable companies in the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bottom line .
It has all the pieces .
Selling off some of the MANY side projects under the eBay umbrella Just this month they are integrating their own payment platform which should add 1-2 % more to every sell which is a big deal considering that the average fee is around 9 % .
We are talking about maybe 20 % added to revenue with not much changing .
BIG MONEY Winning back Small to Medium sellers and improving the per item transaction is eBay ’ s ticket to tendie town @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiencing is exactly what they need and want .
They have a good App that can capitalize on the reboot .
eBay has ample room for growth and I suspect the income levels of buyers in the marketplace is higher than competitors like Amazon , Etsy , Overstock , Stitch Fix .
eBaY has more people with money paying attention .
New CEO seems to be a bright guy .
All he has to do is not SHOOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT like the Donahoe CEO .
If successful eBay will be on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MOST UNDERVALUED TECH COMPANY IN AMERICA .
As always my DMs are open and I do mercenary stuff .
I have my position and I am currently buying shares with a goal of 303 shares before earnings .
I suspect this thing will have VERY little resistance upon takeoff BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll ( I like shares on this one , I like the company and I ’ m expecting dividends ) Once this rocket settles it is covered call selling time .
( This is why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be at least a 80/20 Options/ Share split .
Got to water the seed 1/15/21 $ 85C ( Also I ’ d buy higher but they are not currently available , if BEFORE earnings Higher Strikes appear I would go up in strike A LOT .
If earnings are up big this is ONLY THE BEGINNING as this is eBays SLOW PERIOD .
Earnings for the fall will be CRAZY if Traffic continues to hold and if it has the normal Santa Claus Tax increase 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Disclaimer : This information is only for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by NewFlipPhoneWhoDis
eBay could SOON become pound for pound one of the most profitable enterprises outside of gambling and drugs.
TLDR
Bad Leadership at eBay for YEARS
Corona flips the script. Bull Case $180 Bear Case $220 Future Price Target maybe more. We will see how peoples mind changes when we see earnings.
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll (I like shares on this one as I expect the company to pay dividends) X Multiples of 100 for future CC.
7/31 $80C (These look the juiciest RN)
(8/21 $90C if made available)
1/15/21 $85C
Ebay is an online auction house. Look up your local auction house and spend an evening or day at the Auction. It is fun and will help you understand why previous CEO’s tanked this awesome company with their stupidity. Hammering a Diamond into a square hole.
Worked for an auction house 4 years. If you go to a well run local auction you will see diverse people, successful auction houses have a customer makeup like this:
30% Hustlers and People involved with the auctions (Consignees etc)
20% Rich people (Rich people love auctions and I’m not talking about Sotherbys I’m talking about a normal sized city weekly auction there will be lots of rich people there)
40% Normal people that either like the thrill or value seekers.
10% Poor People.
This is important when we talk about bad CEO decisions. You have to know your audience.
Ebay started out with this dude selling a broken laser printer, Pierre Omidayer. It grew quickly and he brought in professional help. This can be a good thing as founders can get in the way of growth. In 1998 Meg Whitman was hired to be CEO. Her tenure was unimpressive and she was responsible for the first of two massive blunders that decapitated eBay growth.
Ebay was growing and the internet was starting to get widespread use. By the early 2000s people started to talk about WEB 2.0 and for some reason certain people thought that WEB 2.0 meant being fancy. Ebay did a massive redesign that was hated by most people. Broadband internet was in it’s infancy and the focus on form over function was frustrating for low bandwidth users as the fanciness was more complicated and took longer to load. Additionally it stunted the pathway that would eventually appear for mobile growth. The remnants of this design linger today.
Screen Cap of the AOLfication of eBay late 2003 I believe one of the big problems was rendering the menus in AJAX or something similar, very slow to load in that era
Here we can see the failure in line graph form, (These things lag) eBay share price got hammered. One the reasons for the hammering was lackluster earnings, many ebay users attribute this to the redesign failure as it turned off existing and new customers.
Link to image as it loos like this sub doesn’t allow embeded images
Project Ugly-ify and Slow-ify eBay looks to have lopped off growth and momentum for the share price. Meg Whitmans tenure at ebay neutered growth.
One could blame Whitman for doing a lot of damage to eBay growth but she will largely be forgotten after you learn about the FLAMING DUMPSTER FIRE OF A CEO that is John Donahoe. In 2008 eBay hired Donahoe to be CEO. This could possibly be the worst hire in the history of all hires.
Don’t take my word for it. In 2014 Carl Icahn said eBay was the worst run company he had ever seen.
Carl Icahn says eBay is the worst run company he has ever seen
Donahoe had series after series of bad decision. He basically went to war with small and medium sellers (eBay’s actual bread and butter customers) and went to great lengths to attract large corporate clients. (The worst type of business for eBay) and run away his most profitable customers.
eBay is a market place.
Donahoe gave steep discounts in fees in order to attract corporate customers.
Companies like Target started to sell on eBays platform. (Most are now gone because within a few short years the internet was mature enough that they could start their own platforms)
Link to no longer existing eBay Target Store
Fee discounts to corporate customers angered existing sellers.
In early 2013 he implemented eBay’s search algorithm (Cassini I believe it was called) Previous to this Algo eBay was just a dumb search engine. With the Algo, eBay could control visibility of items on the site via built in preferences like Best Match. With this Donahoe is about to fire maybe 20% of his most profitable customers and give the Amazon marketplace a flood of new users. This idiot was trying to turn an auction house into the next Amazon. Instead he just put Amazon growth on steroids and shoots himself in the foot.
Cassini was used to ban eBay’s customers. DROVES OF THEM
Donahoe decided that any problems on eBay were caused by sellers and he declared war on the people that were his customers.
Enter DSR. Detailed seller ratings was eBay implementation of strict guidelines for their sellers. DSR = 4 categories, each category was rated 1-5 with 5 being good. The system treated 1&2s as a failure.
For Example Customer was unhappy with an item they received for whatever reason. If someone rated a part of the transaction a 2 they would get a ding against their DSR. Problem is they treated all categories the same and the thresholds were very stringent.
For every 1000 transactions a seller had to have LESS than 10 dings in order to participate with Cassini without a search penalty. If the 10 threshold was crossed (Which is 98.9% or less good rating) they would be penalized in the search standing and go under probation. If they crossed 20/1000 or 97.9% or less positive approval rating they would BAN YOU FROM THE PLATFORM.
YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY John DONAHOE in is infinite wisdom decided that sellers with as high as a 97.9% positive transaction rating were disposable. I’ve NEVER SEEN SOMETHING SO STUPID IN MY LIFE.
I kid you not. Donahoe implemented a system where a 98.9% POSITIVE rating has a penalty and 97.9% positive is a ban. (Check the feedback on tons of Amazon marketplace sellers and you will see how ridiculous a threshold this was) What was even more ridiculous was in the beginning all categories were treated the same. For example Books were treated the same way as used women’s clothing. Certain categories like womens clothing were DECIMATED by sellers being banned. People who had been on the platform for a decade and had say a 97% positive feedback selling USED WOMENS CLOTHING were banned left and right. It gets worse, remember how at 98.9% they would put you on probation? Some people called this the DEATH SPIRAL as if you were on probation the new “Best Match” system would lower your search standing. So if you were some poor schmuck who had sold 397 used pieces of womens clothing that year and just 4 of them were unhappy with the experience. You’d go on probation with little to no hope of anything other than the ban hammer. I’ve read many period era messageboard posts of long time sellers in probation trying to do EVERYTHING they could to raise their DSR to get out of probation but had zero visibility with the new algo, they were just left to wither on the vine hoping fruitlessly to turn things around. Most of them didn’t know it YET but eventually as people started putting the pieces together there was no chance of them escaping the Death Spiral. Gaggles of people spent MONTHS trying to save their accounts and eventually most of them realized they were screwed, there was nothing they could do about it because of the Algos. These sellers turned on ebay and took others with them.
If you notice during this time period AMAZON marketplace took off. Daddy Bezo’s had a flood of experienced online traders who simply shifted their operations to the less popular (at the time) and more expensive platform (at the time). It was either that or close shop. MANY CHOSE TO CLOSE SHOP.
The stupidity of all this was the Small and Medium sellers were the real money makers. eBay charges around a 9% fee with a cap of $250 per transaction.
Which is more profitable?
Target selling 50,000 items or 5,000 small to medium size sellers selling 100 items?
The answer is in the nature of marketplaces. Target sells to 5,000 customers and that is the end of the story. Small to medium sized sellers tend to keep the money in the marketplace. User A sells to user B for $100 User B can turn around and take that $100 and buy something he needs for himself or his business from user C, user C can then do the same. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Target selling $100 is a one way street while Small to Medium users can be a continuous money carousel.
Donahoe in his infinite ignorance ran off many of his prime sellers. Ultimately sellers are your customers as they are the one’s who pay the fees. He jump started his competition whom he was stupidly trying to emulate. The important thing to understand about eBay is their product (An Auction) is easily scaleable and cheap to run
For example this Rolex
costs about the same to service this listing for a rug
The Target deal, illustrated with a bathroom rug
Chasing these corporate dollars was infinitely stupid.
They gave these corporations steep discounts to use the platform The internet was maturing and we were just a few years from all these corporations having their own web presence Robbed dollars and eyeballs from your bread and butter. Auction and Store listings of small to medium sellers. Robs future revenue from carousel customers who return money to the marketplace and gives it to corporate customers who do not return dollars and are using the dollars they make off you to build the infrastructure to replace you. DING DING DING
This dude declared war on some of his best customers and tried to make eBay an ugly corporate shill and would eventually lead to the invasion of cheap Chinese stuff (eBay is now combating that)
We can see the results of his war on customers with this graph. eBay’s growth and revenue was decimated by this idiot and you can see the results once the earnings were reported (Which lagged the implementation of his stupidity)
War on customers displayed via line graph
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Donohoe decapitated ebay right during what would have been it’s prime growth years and funneled those customers to his biggest competitor.
eBay can make far more with less because of the nature of it’s bread and butter customers. Many auction enthusiasts are high income types. eBay has better demographics financially than it’s competitors. There is even a fairly large industry of arbitrage where people sell items they source elsewhere (Like amazon) and basically drop ship them off as eBay sells because some stuff sells at a premium on eBay.
eBay CAN make more money per transaction compared to similar industries and can capture a significant amount of money to return within the marketplace. Similar to sales tax, that dollar can bounce around within the marketplace and eBay can take it’s 9% cut every time it switches hands.
Interesting side rabbit hole that arises during the Donahoe years. Donahoe was obsessed with attacking his own customers. This was commonly followed in an industry blog called AuctionWeb and then eventually named ecommercebytes. Run by the Steiner Couple
Here is an article their website published about them getting rid of sellers
They reported on all of eBay’s policy changes and basically called them out for being the giant window lickers they were. It ruffled a few feathers within the organization and now 6+ employees of eBay are being charged with crimes like harassment and stalking. Really a crazy story. DONAHOE is to blame for the policies and culture that allowed this to happen. He should go to jail over just what he did to the share price.
Crazy eBay Criminal Stalking
More Crazy eBay Harassment
During all of this foot shooting was when Carl Icahn said that eBay was THE WORST RUN COMPANY HE HAD EVER SEEN
One of the problems was the incestuous nature of eBay’s relationship with Paypal and the board members who presided over both. They basically spent a decade doing what was best for the board and not what was best for the Shareholders, employees and customers of eBay.
This is now not so much a problem because many of those relationships no longer exist. In the aftermath the other pieces have found increased market value and eBay has been suppressed due to it being stuck with all the burdens of the Donahoe administration and bad perception.
eBay should have been worth more as an individual piece and it’s was the one who took the financial hits.
PayPal Split in 2015
PayPal has a 113 P/E (I’m not saying this is the best metric to judge a company I’m just using it for illustration)
If eBay traded at Paypal P/E it would be worth $660
So what’s the catalyst to the eBay Rocket Ship that is about to take off?
CORONA. Corona is shaking up the whole economy and this shake up will jolt eBay to it’s full potential.
Alexa 90 days, even better at 140 and this growth is against the normal ebb of seasonal business
Over the past 4 months as far as I can tell eBay has increased traffic by as much as 18%+ which is pretty AMAZING for a very mature internet company. Even more amazing when you take into account that this is normally eBays slow period. Traffic is normally on the downturn. YOY I am curious how much busier they have been I’m guessing 45% YOY increase in traffic for the Month of May & June
April May June July are eBay’s 4 slowest months and the July 28th earnings will encompass 3 of those 4 months. During the slowest time of year eBay went from the mid 50’s to the lower 40’s for it’s spot in total Internet Traffic. A HUGE shift against the normal tide of business cycles.
Traffic for last 90 days. Up much more over entire Corona Period the increase looks more bigly when you view 150 days out
I’ve spent a few hours trawling eBay seller message boards. Within this quarter I have heard of increases in per transactions and a decrease in “Best Offers” which means better margins for sellers and more fees for eBay. I attribute this to Corona disrupting normal supply chains. eBay has been established for many years so boomers when they can’t find something are like “Oh Yeah EBAY.” Many sellers report increased sells in business related categories and more aged inventory being sold as parts of the market shift towards online from some of the traditionally Bricks and Mortar industries. eBay has a very successful and well made app. Sellers are seeing increased usage amongst younger buyers/sellers whom are either bored with the lockdowns or looking for side income after losing their jobs. Remember when we mentioned 500 small sellers being worth more than one big corporate client? This will be obtained with an army of people using the app on their cell phones. Corona is going to get the attention of customers they lost over the years as they come back to the platform they remember, millennials and new users when they discover the well made app will come online. I’ve added the eBay App to my phone it is very good and has very customizable search features.
The Bear case for eBay is even more, if Corona turns out to be worse (It’s not) everything online just becomes more valuable.
So what is eBay worth?
Well it’s a better investment IMO than Paypal
eBay valued like Paypal is worth $660
Mercardo Libre is worth more than eBay (This is a Crime) as it is not even a top 1000 worldwide website while eBay is top 50. Plus it doesn’t even turn a profit. If you have any MELI stock sell half of it and buy eBay in addition to whatever you would buy if you didn’t own MELI do the same for PayPal as well IMO.
If eBay was valued like MELI it would be worth Tesla numbers
Mercardo Libre has a 25% bigger market cap than eBay and doesn’t turn a profit. Ebay would be $76 a share just to be on par with MELI and it shouldn’t even be in the same ballpark.
Etsy is just outside of the Top 100 for web traffic and has a 181 P/E if eBay was trading like ETSY it would be trading at $1090 a share
If eBay was valued like ETSY it would trade for $1090
Channel Advisor is a company that grew out of offering services for eBay and while it works on multiple platforms it’s use was born from eBay and it has a 60 P/E
If trading like Channel Advisor it would be worth $363
Corona shifted a lot of users to the eBay marketplace because of busted supply chains. They now have an Okay website and an EXCELLENT APP. This increased use comes during the traditional low tide of eBay traffic and if eBay leans into the coming quarters their revenue is going to skyrocket. Corona was the catalysts to wake everybody up to what eBay could do and what it should be worth. EBAY should be one of the most profitable companies in the US economy with lots of room to improve the bottom line. It has all the pieces.
Like
Selling off some of the MANY side projects under the eBay umbrella
Streamlining Employment
Just this month they are integrating their own payment platform which should add 1-2% more to every sell which is a big deal considering that the average fee is around 9%. We are talking about maybe 20% added to revenue with not much changing. BIG MONEY
Winning back Small to Medium sellers and improving the per item transaction is eBay’s ticket to tendie town. All the new growth they are experiencing is exactly what they need and want. They have a good App that can capitalize on the reboot.
eBay has ample room for growth and I suspect the income levels of buyers in the marketplace is higher than competitors like Amazon, Etsy, Overstock, Stitch Fix. eBaY has more people with money paying attention.
New CEO seems to be a bright guy. All he has to do is not SHOOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT like the Donahoe CEO. If successful eBay will be on the moon mission of all moon missions
MOST UNDERVALUED TECH COMPANY IN AMERICA. As always my DMs are open and I do mercenary stuff. I have my position and I am currently buying shares with a goal of 303 shares before earnings.
I suspect this thing will have VERY little resistance upon takeoff
Little Resistance
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll (I like shares on this one, I like the company and I’m expecting dividends) Once this rocket settles it is covered call selling time. (This is why you want multiples of 100
You should be at least a 80/20 Options/ Share split. Got to water the seed
Options
7/31 $80C
(8/21 $90C if ever made available)
1/15/21 $85C (Also I’d buy higher but they are not currently available, if BEFORE earnings Higher Strikes appear I would go up in strike A LOT. If earnings are up big this is ONLY THE BEGINNING as this is eBays SLOW PERIOD. Earnings for the fall will be CRAZY if Traffic continues to hold and if it has the normal Santa Claus Tax increase 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-15--Why Stocks Only Go Up (Boring Economics)

If you look at any paper money you have , it reads “ Federal Reserve Note.
” All US Currency is backed by the assets of the Federal Reserve , meaning that your dollar ’ s value is defined by it ’ s proportion of the US Federal Reserve ’ s Assets .
Here ’ s the scary part : Before 1933 $ 100 would equal $ 100 worth of Gold .
According to the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet as of July 8th 2020 , if I gave you $ 100 bill ( a Benjamin ) this is what that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and rounded to nearest cent ) : 18¢ Loans to undisclosed organizations 68¢ Overnight Loans to Shadow/Investment Banks $ 1.08 Loans to Private US Citizens/Small Businesses $ 2.73 Loans to Private US Corporations $ 41.80 In Securities Purchased from Central Banks ( MBS , Junk Bonds ) and Loans Given to Central Banks $ 46 Loans to the US Government $ 6.58 U.S .
Dollars ( Yes , according to the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 6.5 % of your dollar is backed by more dollars , anyone smell a Ponzi Scheme ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve were a private Corporation , it would have a Debt/Equity Ratio of 98:1 .
Lehman Brothers at its worst ?
60:1 .
It would be guilty of accounting fraud to the tune of $ 8.75 billion .
Last but not least , it would be guilty of operating a $ 327 billion Ponzi Scheme .
The two largest shareholders are Central Banks ( Global ) ( 41 % ) and the US Government ( 45 % ) .
However don ’ t confuse US Government with US Taxpayer .
We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -The Federal Reserve is legally immune from audit .
-The Fed is immune to traditional securities laws .
-The Federal Reserve has the power to print dollars , which fuels the aforementioned “ Ponzi Scheme.
” -The Federal Reserve has full/partial ownership of at least 5 LLC ’ s that they use as special purpose vehicles to circumvent the law .
-Inflation is taxation without actually calling it taxation , worse it ’ s taxation without representation as Fed Governors determine fiscal policy without congressional input Due to majority ownership by the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is directly influenced by the wants/needs of Banks and Government .
Fed purchase of bad private securities ( bailout ) is unfair to other private security companies who are doing it right .
These bailouts are positive reinforcement for risky bad behavior by banks .
Thus , stonks always go up because the Fed has to make bank and government debt ( your social security ) cheaper to service and less likely to default to save their balance sheet .
Great for autists like us in the short term , but the long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assets purchased by the Fed default due to COVID ( which is likely ) , we could see inflation/hyperinflation proportional to the percentage of defaulting Federal Reserve debt assets .
Inflation doesn ’ t just mean stonks go up – it means EVERYTHING goes up .
This could cause the collapse of the $ USD and loss of it ’ s status as the world ’ s reserve currency .
So in addition to these short term plays buy hard assets such as food , precious metals , weapons , and other barter-friendly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set aside 10-15 % to prepare for the worst case scenario that 3-20 years from now we may live in a post- $ USD society .
Your tendies will mean nothing then if denominated in $ USD .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by poolnoodle37
If you look at any paper money you have, it reads “Federal Reserve Note.” All US Currency is backed by the assets of the Federal Reserve, meaning that your dollar’s value is defined by it’s proportion of the US Federal Reserve’s Assets. Here’s the scary part:
Before 1933 $100 would equal $100 worth of Gold. According to the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet as of July 8th 2020, if I gave you $100 bill (a Benjamin) this is what that $100 bill represents today (simplified, and rounded to nearest cent):
Total Physical Assets: $0.22
22¢ worth of Gold
Total Debt “Assets”: $92.51
18¢ Loans to undisclosed organizations 68¢ Overnight Loans to Shadow/Investment Banks $1.08 Loans to Private US Citizens/Small Businesses $2.73 Loans to Private US Corporations $41.80 In Securities Purchased from Central Banks (MBS, Junk Bonds) and Loans Given to Central Banks $46 Loans to the US Government
Currency Assets: $7.27
$6.58 U.S. Dollars (Yes, according to the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 6.5% of your dollar is backed by more dollars, anyone smell a Ponzi Scheme?) 69¢ Foreign Basket Currency
The Company:
If the Federal Reserve were a private Corporation, it would have a Debt/Equity Ratio of 98:1. Lehman Brothers at its worst? 60:1. It would be guilty of accounting fraud to the tune of $8.75 billion. Last but not least, it would be guilty of operating a $327 billion Ponzi Scheme.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
The CEOs:
Federal Reserve Governors serve 14 year terms, and make $183,000 a year.
The Investors:
The two largest shareholders are Central Banks (Global) (41%) and the US Government (45%). However don’t confuse US Government with US Taxpayer. We’re a Republic not a Democracy.
The Problems:
-The Federal Reserve is legally immune from audit. -The Fed is immune to traditional securities laws. -The Federal Reserve has the power to print dollars, which fuels the aforementioned “Ponzi Scheme.” -The Federal Reserve has full/partial ownership of at least 5 LLC’s that they use as special purpose vehicles to circumvent the law. -Inflation is taxation without actually calling it taxation, worse it’s taxation without representation as Fed Governors determine fiscal policy without congressional input
Due to majority ownership by the US Government and Central Banks, fiscal policy is directly influenced by the wants/needs of Banks and Government. Fed purchase of bad private securities (bailout) is unfair to other private security companies who are doing it right. These bailouts are positive reinforcement for risky bad behavior by banks.
Thus, stonks always go up because the Fed has to make bank and government debt (your social security) cheaper to service and less likely to default to save their balance sheet. Great for autists like us in the short term, but the long term outlook is dire. If any assets purchased by the Fed default due to COVID (which is likely), we could see inflation/hyperinflation proportional to the percentage of defaulting Federal Reserve debt assets.
Inflation doesn’t just mean stonks go up – it means EVERYTHING goes up. This could cause the collapse of the $USD and loss of it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. So in addition to these short term plays buy hard assets such as food, precious metals, weapons, and other barter-friendly items. Enjoy your gains, but set aside 10-15% to prepare for the worst case scenario that 3-20 years from now we may live in a post-$USD society. Your tendies will mean nothing then if denominated in $USD.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.