investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Another Bombshell: A 3rd Study Has Now Found That COVID-19 Antibodies Disappear Very, Very Rapidly

Scientific evidence continues to emerge that indicates that COVID-19 is going to be with us for a very long time to come .
Yesterday , I reported on a recent study that was conducted in China and another recent study that was conducted in Spain that both showed that COVID-19 antibodies start to disappear very , very quickly .
In fact , the study that was conducted in Spain discovered that some patients that originally tested positive for antibodies “ no longer had antibodies weeks later ” .
Well , now we have a third study to add to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that was conducted at Guy ’ s and St. Thomas ’ National Health Service Foundation Trust in London found that “ just 16.7 percent of the patients had a potent antibody response ” after a couple of months had passed… Researchers analyzed immune responses of patients and health care workers at Guy ’ s and St. Thomas ’ National Health Service Foundation Trust in London and found that levels of antibodies that destroy the virus quickly declined after peaking several weeks after patients exhibited symptoms .
The study found that 60 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ antibody response at peak of their battle with the coronavirus .
After about two months , however , just 16.7 percent of the patients had a potent antibody response .
This has enormous implications for vaccine development , because if antibodies disappear very , very quickly any vaccine would need to be administered over and over again throughout the year to provide any sort of protection at all .
And of course a large portion of the U.S. population will never want to take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances .
In addition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if a COVID-19 victim develops antibodies , that does not necessarily mean that individual has immunity .
In an article that he authored for CNN , Dr. William Haseltine explained that “ only 15 % of those who test positive for antibodies make the neutralizing antibodies necessary to develop immunity ” … So what all of this means is that a vaccine is not going to end this pandemic , and any hope of “ herd immunity ” bringing this pandemic to an end is completely gone .
It turns out that COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Antibodies for other common coronaviruses typically disappear entirely “ between four months and one year ” , and as a result people can actually catch the exact same virus “ year after year ” … Unfortunately , COVID-19 is far more dangerous that most of the other coronaviruses that are floating around out there .
Yesterday , one reader criticized me for suggesting that COVID-19 often causes permanent damage .
But of course that is exactly what the hard science has shown .
For example , one study of COVID-19 victims discovered that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ damage that was caused by COVID-19… Of the total 1,216 patients , 667 ( 55 percent ) had abnormalities in their scan and one in seven participants had what researchers described as “ severe abnormalities , ” according to the paper published in the journal European Heart Journal – Cardiovascular Imaging .
On average , the participants were aged 62 , and 70 percent were male .
Sixty percent of the scans were performed in a critical care setting , such as an ICU unit or emergency room , while the others were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cardiology , respiratory , or COVID-19 wards .
Some 54 percent of the patients had severe COVID-19 .
As we know , COVID-19 also can do a tremendous amount of damage to the lungs , and some scientists are now linking the virus to brain damage in some instances .
And once you become infected , you may have a very , very long battle ahead of you .
In fact , I came across an article today in which one COVID-19 victim claimed to have been battling the virus for more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When I was a kid , I thought that if I was sick for a week that was way too long .
But apparently this particular virus tends to stay with people for an extended period of time .
If you can believe it , a study that was just conducted in Italy found that only 12.6 percent of COVID-19 victims were completely free of symptoms 60 days after first becoming sick… So those that are mocking this pandemic need to stop , because there are countless victims that are going through nightmarish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus .
I think that most of us had assumed that COVID-19 would be a temporary crisis that would eventually go away and then we could go back to our normal lives .
But if there is no way of ever achieving lasting immunity , this virus will be able to circulate around the globe over and over again , and there will be nothing that we can do to stop it .
In other words , it looks like COVID-19 is now a permanent part of our lives .
I wish that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlike so many other news sources I do not believe in engaging in wishful thinking .
And now that everyone has seen how much damage a virus like this can do , that will just encourage terrorists or others with a very evil agenda to quietly release extremely deadly diseases in the future .
A year ago at this time everything seemed so “ normal ” , but now our lives have been turned upside down by this virus , and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning .

by Michael Snyder
Scientific evidence continues to emerge that indicates that COVID-19 is going to be with us for a very long time to come. Yesterday, I reported on a recent study that was conducted in China and another recent study that was conducted in Spain that both showed that COVID-19 antibodies start to disappear very, very quickly. In fact, the study that was conducted in Spain discovered that some patients that originally tested positive for antibodies “no longer had antibodies weeks later”. Well, now we have a third study to add to the list. A study of COVID-19 patients that was conducted at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust in London found that “just 16.7 percent of the patients had a potent antibody response” after a couple of months had passed…
Researchers analyzed immune responses of patients and health care workers at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust in London and found that levels of antibodies that destroy the virus quickly declined after peaking several weeks after patients exhibited symptoms. The study found that 60 percent of the patients had a “potent” antibody response at peak of their battle with the coronavirus. After about two months, however, just 16.7 percent of the patients had a potent antibody response.
This has enormous implications for vaccine development, because if antibodies disappear very, very quickly any vaccine would need to be administered over and over again throughout the year to provide any sort of protection at all.
And of course a large portion of the U.S. population will never want to take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances.
In addition, experts are telling us that even if a COVID-19 victim develops antibodies, that does not necessarily mean that individual has immunity. In an article that he authored for CNN, Dr. William Haseltine explained that “only 15% of those who test positive for antibodies make the neutralizing antibodies necessary to develop immunity”…
Not only do antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 fade, and perhaps fade quickly, studies have also shown that only 15% of those who test positive for antibodies make the neutralizing antibodies necessary to develop immunity in the first place. And not all of those who make neutralizing antibodies make them at high levels. Some of those infected make no antibodies at all.
So what all of this means is that a vaccine is not going to end this pandemic, and any hope of “herd immunity” bringing this pandemic to an end is completely gone.
It turns out that COVID-19 behaves a lot like other coronaviruses. Antibodies for other common coronaviruses typically disappear entirely “between four months and one year”, and as a result people can actually catch the exact same virus “year after year”…
While SARS and MERS are the coronaviruses that grab the headlines, there are four other mostly unknown coronaviruses that are much more common: 229E, HKU1, NL63 and OC43. What we know from 60 years of research into these viruses is that they come back year after year and reinfect the same people — over and over again.
Unfortunately, COVID-19 is far more dangerous that most of the other coronaviruses that are floating around out there.
Yesterday, one reader criticized me for suggesting that COVID-19 often causes permanent damage. But of course that is exactly what the hard science has shown. For example, one study of COVID-19 victims discovered that 55 percent of them had serious heart damage that was caused by COVID-19…
Of the total 1,216 patients, 667 (55 percent) had abnormalities in their scan and one in seven participants had what researchers described as “severe abnormalities,” according to the paper published in the journal European Heart Journal – Cardiovascular Imaging. On average, the participants were aged 62, and 70 percent were male. Sixty percent of the scans were performed in a critical care setting, such as an ICU unit or emergency room, while the others were carried out in general medicine settings, cardiology, respiratory, or COVID-19 wards. Some 54 percent of the patients had severe COVID-19.
As we know, COVID-19 also can do a tremendous amount of damage to the lungs, and some scientists are now linking the virus to brain damage in some instances.
And once you become infected, you may have a very, very long battle ahead of you.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
In fact, I came across an article today in which one COVID-19 victim claimed to have been battling the virus for more than 100 days…
My first Covid-19 symptoms appeared on March 14: a low-grade fever, profound leg pain, malaise, and loss of appetite. More than 100 days later, Covid-19 is still with me. Some days I wonder if it will ever leave.
Can you imagine that?
When I was a kid, I thought that if I was sick for a week that was way too long.
But apparently this particular virus tends to stay with people for an extended period of time. If you can believe it, a study that was just conducted in Italy found that only 12.6 percent of COVID-19 victims were completely free of symptoms 60 days after first becoming sick…
Almost 90 percent of Covid-19 survivors still have symptoms including fatigue two months after first falling unwell, according to a study. Italian researchers tracked 143 people who had been hospitalised with the disease but had since recovered. Only 12.6 per cent were completely free of any Covid-19–related symptom 60 days after they first became unwell.
So those that are mocking this pandemic need to stop, because there are countless victims that are going through nightmarish ordeals right now as they battle this virus.
I think that most of us had assumed that COVID-19 would be a temporary crisis that would eventually go away and then we could go back to our normal lives.
But if there is no way of ever achieving lasting immunity, this virus will be able to circulate around the globe over and over again, and there will be nothing that we can do to stop it.
In other words, it looks like COVID-19 is now a permanent part of our lives.
I wish that this wasn’t true, but unlike so many other news sources I do not believe in engaging in wishful thinking.
And now that everyone has seen how much damage a virus like this can do, that will just encourage terrorists or others with a very evil agenda to quietly release extremely deadly diseases in the future.
A year ago at this time everything seemed so “normal”, but now our lives have been turned upside down by this virus, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Could America Have a French-Style Revolution?

As with the French Revolution , that will be the trigger for a wholesale replacement of our failed institutions .
Since it ’ s Bastille Day , a national holiday in France celebrating the French Revolution , let ’ s ask a question few even think ( or dare ) to ask : could America have a French-style Revolution ?
Not in some distant era , but within the next five years ?
By French-style Revolution I don ’ t mean the extravagant use of the guillotine , I mean the complete political overthrow of the ruling elites .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be an entirely peaceful electoral rejection of the two-party political elites and the Federal Reserve / banking / financialization elites which together form the neoliberal-neofeudal ruling elites .
The BAU Crowd ( business as usual ) considers the possibility of such an overthrow of parasitic , predatory elites as remote as a landing by Martians .
I suspect they ’ re purposefully blind to the reality that America ’ s elites and institutions are structurally incapable of accepting meaningful reforms that would address the extremes of dysfunction , exploitation , predation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ characterize America today .
America ’ s elites and institutions have only one systemic response to crisis : do more of what ’ s failed spectacularly .
This inability to acknowledge the reality of their own self-serving incompetence and the deeply dysfunctional nature of virtually every level of America ’ s economic , social and political orders leaves an overthrow of the entire ruling elite as the only option left other than resignation to Bread and Circuses funded by the Fed , a policy of desperation that will inevitably debauch the U.S. dollar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Circuses to fix what ’ s broken .
Counting on Fed-funded Bread and Circuses to fix what ’ s broken is the perfection of magical thinking , a state of denial expressed by the phrase routinely ( but apparently falsely ) attributed to Marie Antoinette , when she learned that the peasants had no bread : Then let them eat brioche ( roughly translated into “ cake ” in English ) .
Ignoring the horror of the delusional BAU Crowd , let ’ s explore the set-up for a French-style Revolution in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the guillotine , the French Revolution was many things unfolding at once : — The failure of the Monarchy ’ s money system , as inflation soared to the point commoners could no longer afford bread .
( The price of bread peaked the week that the Bastille was stormed by mobs . )
— The overthrow of the state-religion nexus in favor of Enlightenment rationalism .
— The romantic ascent of liberty as the rallying cry against an oppressive feudal hierarchy .
— The fragmentation of the social and political orders into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Monarchy ’ s institutions to recognize and understand the potentially fatal challenges and institute reforms that addressed the problems .
— The failure of the French economy , which was plagued by poor roads and communication lines , limited trade due to regional fragmentation and low levels of productive investment .
— Geopolitical rivalries with Great Britain , the rising power of the Germanic states and other continental European powers ( Russia , Austria , Sweden ) .
In sum , institutions that had failed collapsed and were replaced , first by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by political reforms , a process that took much of the 19th century to play out .
I think the parallels to America in 2020 are obvious , if inexact .
Most importantly , America ’ s core institutions have failed : the financial system , healthcare , higher education , the political process and the national defense/intelligence complex .
In every case , a class of insiders has come to dominate each centralized hierarchy for its own benefit .
Blinded by their greed and hubris , they can not recognize or understand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attachment to their position , privilege and power is blindingly strong .
Reform is impossible , for as with the French Monarchy , the existing system is the wrong structure and unit size , to borrow a phrase from Peter Drucker .
Reforms profound enough to actually repair what ’ s broken would require the insiders surrender much of their position , privilege and power , which they will never do .
As I have taken pains to explain , finance capitalism has fatally distorted the American economy in ways that few understand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s so disturbing ) .
The resulting concentration of wealth and power has also fatally distorted the political process of governance .
As I explained in my books Resistance , Revolution , Liberation and Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege , America ’ s systems only function when there is more of everything to distribute , i.e .
“ growth ” : more money , more goods and services , more political power .
When there is less of everything , America ’ s institutions fail because they have no mechanisms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the result of their systemic structure as centralized hierarchies .
Expansion is effortless , contraction breaks the system .
( See the chart of the rising wedge model of breakdown below . )
Much is being made of the fragmentation of American society into so-called progressive-conservative camps , and perhaps the best way to understand this fragmentation is that both camps recognize the failure of American institutions but differ on how to reform them .
Given that America ’ s institutions only function with “ more of everything , ” a reality that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ there ’ s always more of everything , ” I consider it inevitable that whomever is in power will enthusiastically embrace the illusory “ solution ” of printing trillions of dollars out of thin air , in the delusional confidence that the world ’ s appetite for dollars is essentially infinite .
Put another way : America finds it comforting to assume that it will always be able to digitally create “ money ” out of thin air and trade this “ nothing ” for real goods , i.e .
“ something.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this magic for decades only fuels the confidence of those who reckon the way to “ get more of everything ” is so easy and simple : just create another few trillion dollars out of thin air and buy the world ’ s resources with this “ free money.
” Eventually the rest of the world will tire of this fraud , and America will face the loss of its magic printing press .
At that point , inflation will destroy the purchasing power of the US dollar and commoners will be unable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As with the French Revolution , that will be the trigger for a wholesale replacement of our failed institutions .
Whether that replacement can be accomplished within the existing political system will depend on a great many factors that will be unfolding simultaneously and interacting with each other in unpredictable , nonlinear ways .
My work is all about sketching out alternative systems that are non-hierarchical , opt-in , decentralized , adaptive , self-organizing and anti-fragile–everything that our current systems are not .
How do we get from “ there ” –failed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ here ” –opt-in , decentralized , adaptive , self-organizing and anti-fragile institutions ?
Nobody knows , but I suspect the decay of our failed institutions will accelerate rapidly , and we won ’ t have to wait very long to witness the messy transition to new decentralized , localized , flexible non-elite-ruled institutional models .

by Charles Hugh-Smith
As with the French Revolution, that will be the trigger for a wholesale replacement of our failed institutions.
Since it’s Bastille Day, a national holiday in France celebrating the French Revolution, let’s ask a question few even think (or dare) to ask: could America have a French-style Revolution? Not in some distant era, but within the next five years?
By French-style Revolution I don’t mean the extravagant use of the guillotine, I mean the complete political overthrow of the ruling elites. This overthrow need not be violent; it could be an entirely peaceful electoral rejection of the two-party political elites and the Federal Reserve / banking / financialization elites which together form the neoliberal-neofeudal ruling elites.
The BAU Crowd (business as usual) considers the possibility of such an overthrow of parasitic, predatory elites as remote as a landing by Martians. I suspect they’re purposefully blind to the reality that America’s elites and institutions are structurally incapable of accepting meaningful reforms that would address the extremes of dysfunction, exploitation, predation and wealth / power / income inequality that characterize America today.
America’s elites and institutions have only one systemic response to crisis: do more of what’s failed spectacularly.
This inability to acknowledge the reality of their own self-serving incompetence and the deeply dysfunctional nature of virtually every level of America’s economic, social and political orders leaves an overthrow of the entire ruling elite as the only option left other than resignation to Bread and Circuses funded by the Fed, a policy of desperation that will inevitably debauch the U.S. dollar and impoverish everyone who counted on Bread and Circuses to fix what’s broken.
Counting on Fed-funded Bread and Circuses to fix what’s broken is the perfection of magical thinking, a state of denial expressed by the phrase routinely (but apparently falsely) attributed to Marie Antoinette, when she learned that the peasants had no bread: Then let them eat brioche (roughly translated into “cake” in English).
Ignoring the horror of the delusional BAU Crowd, let’s explore the set-up for a French-style Revolution in America.
Setting aside the horrors of the guillotine, the French Revolution was many things unfolding at once:
— The failure of the Monarchy’s money system, as inflation soared to the point commoners could no longer afford bread. (The price of bread peaked the week that the Bastille was stormed by mobs.)
— The overthrow of the state-religion nexus in favor of Enlightenment rationalism.
— The romantic ascent of liberty as the rallying cry against an oppressive feudal hierarchy.
— The fragmentation of the social and political orders into warring factions.
— The failure of the Monarchy’s institutions to recognize and understand the potentially fatal challenges and institute reforms that addressed the problems.
— The failure of the French economy, which was plagued by poor roads and communication lines, limited trade due to regional fragmentation and low levels of productive investment.
— Geopolitical rivalries with Great Britain, the rising power of the Germanic states and other continental European powers (Russia, Austria, Sweden).
In sum, institutions that had failed collapsed and were replaced, first by Napoleon’s centralized bureaucracies and later by political reforms, a process that took much of the 19th century to play out.
I think the parallels to America in 2020 are obvious, if inexact.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Most importantly, America’s core institutions have failed: the financial system, healthcare, higher education, the political process and the national defense/intelligence complex.
In every case, a class of insiders has come to dominate each centralized hierarchy for its own benefit. Blinded by their greed and hubris, they cannot recognize or understand the systemic failure they inhabit because their attachment to their position, privilege and power is blindingly strong.
Reform is impossible, for as with the French Monarchy, the existing system is the wrong structure and unit size, to borrow a phrase from Peter Drucker. Reforms profound enough to actually repair what’s broken would require the insiders surrender much of their position, privilege and power, which they will never do.
As I have taken pains to explain, finance capitalism has fatally distorted the American economy in ways that few understand (or want to understand, since it’s so disturbing).
The resulting concentration of wealth and power has also fatally distorted the political process of governance.
As I explained in my books Resistance, Revolution, Liberation and Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege, America’s systems only function when there is more of everything to distribute, i.e. “growth”: more money, more goods and services, more political power.
When there is less of everything, America’s institutions fail because they have no mechanisms for DeGrowth / contraction.
This is the result of their systemic structure as centralized hierarchies. Expansion is effortless, contraction breaks the system. (See the chart of the rising wedge model of breakdown below.)
Much is being made of the fragmentation of American society into so-called progressive-conservative camps, and perhaps the best way to understand this fragmentation is that both camps recognize the failure of American institutions but differ on how to reform them.
Given that America’s institutions only function with “more of everything,” a reality that aligns with America’s zeitgeist of “there’s always more of everything,” I consider it inevitable that whomever is in power will enthusiastically embrace the illusory “solution” of printing trillions of dollars out of thin air, in the delusional confidence that the world’s appetite for dollars is essentially infinite.
Put another way: America finds it comforting to assume that it will always be able to digitally create “money” out of thin air and trade this “nothing” for real goods, i.e. “something.”
That America has gotten away with this magic for decades only fuels the confidence of those who reckon the way to “get more of everything” is so easy and simple: just create another few trillion dollars out of thin air and buy the world’s resources with this “free money.”
Eventually the rest of the world will tire of this fraud, and America will face the loss of its magic printing press.
At that point, inflation will destroy the purchasing power of the US dollar and commoners will be unable to afford the cost of living.
As with the French Revolution, that will be the trigger for a wholesale replacement of our failed institutions. Whether that replacement can be accomplished within the existing political system will depend on a great many factors that will be unfolding simultaneously and interacting with each other in unpredictable, nonlinear ways.
My work is all about sketching out alternative systems that are non-hierarchical, opt-in, decentralized, adaptive, self-organizing and anti-fragile–everything that our current systems are not.
How do we get from “there”–failed, centralized hierarchies dominated by self-serving insiders– to “here”–opt-in, decentralized, adaptive, self-organizing and anti-fragile institutions?
Nobody knows, but I suspect the decay of our failed institutions will accelerate rapidly, and we won’t have to wait very long to witness the messy transition to new decentralized, localized, flexible non-elite-ruled institutional models.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Do You Feel The Heat Of Summer, True Evil Is About To Be Revealed To The World

The [ DS ] /MSM first event will be coming to and end , the [ DS ] /MSM are @ @ @ @ @ to be pushed forward right before the election , be prepared for a FF .
@ @ @ @ @ down , people have been brought to the edge and now the facts are coming @ @ @ @ @ the mask is off the entire event falls apart .
The silent majority is growing @ @ @ @ @ silent ones will be as one voice .

The [DS]/MSM first event will be coming to and end, the [DS]/MSM are now preparing the 2nd event to be pushed forward right before the election, be prepared for a FF. The pandemic will be winding down, people have been brought to the edge and now the facts are coming out about masks, once the mask is off the entire event falls apart. The silent majority is growing, soon, very soon silent ones will be as one voice.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Charting America’s Most Profitable Companies

It ’ s been a rough start to 2020 for the U.S. economy , with the Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting a 12.3 drop in corporate profits in the first quarter .
The most profitable U.S. companies have proved no exception to this downturn , although things are starting to look up for some .
• U.S. corporate profits fell by 12 % in the first quarter of 2020 .
• Berkshire Hathaway , the most profitable U.S. company , posted a net loss of $ 50 billion in the first quarter .
• Profits at JPMorgan Chase , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % in the first quarter .
• Some profits may be looking up : Microsoft posted a 22 % increase in net income in the third quarter .
Our data comes from the 2020 edition of the Fortune 500 .
For our viz , each of the 50 most profitable companies are represented by a bubble labeled with that company ’ s logo and its profits .
A larger bubble and darker shade of green indicates a more profitable company , while a smaller bubble with lighter shade of blue indicates a less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these companies by industry .
Top 10 Most Profitable Companies in the U.S .
The most profitable U.S. company by far is the Berkshire Hathaway , the insurance conglomerate run by billionaire Warren Buffett .
At over $ 80 billion in 2019 profits , Berkshire Hathaway is more profitable than any company worldwide except for oil giant Saudi Aramco .
Even mighty Berkshire stumbled in the first quarter of 2020 amid the global economic shutdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic : the company posted a nearly $ 50 billion loss , the largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , along with Buffett ’ s seeming lack of response to adjusting the company ’ s portfolio , has led some to question whether the “ Oracle of Omaha ” has lost his touch , while others insist that Buffett will again be proven correct with a steady “ buy-and-hold ” strategy .
Following Berkshire Hathaway on the most profitable list is Apple , a company which had only gained in earnings 2.5 % annually as of March 2020 .
Analysts seem optimistic that the technology company will be able to bounce back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And there is reason to believe : Microsoft posted strong year-over-year earnings growth in the third quarter of 2020 , citing minimal impact of the coronavirus .
A noticeable absence on the list is Amazon , the world ’ s largest retailer .
While a large company by market capitalization , Amazon still has a relatively low profit .
This is because the company re-invests much of its revenue into the company , with the expectation of higher profits in the future .
The strategy has paid off , while some wonder how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are you surprised to see among the most profitable ?
Are there any you ’ re surprised not to see ?
Will corporate profits rebound in the coming quarters ?
Let us know in the comments and share with your friends .

by howmuch
It’s been a rough start to 2020 for the U.S. economy, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting a 12.3 drop in corporate profits in the first quarter. The most profitable U.S. companies have proved no exception to this downturn, although things are starting to look up for some.
Buy this visualization
U.S. corporate profits fell by 12% in the first quarter of 2020.
Berkshire Hathaway, the most profitable U.S. company, posted a net loss of $50 billion in the first quarter.
Profits at JPMorgan Chase, the most profitable financial company, fell 69% in the first quarter.
Some profits may be looking up: Microsoft posted a 22% increase in net income in the third quarter.
Our data comes from the 2020 edition of the Fortune 500. For our viz, each of the 50 most profitable companies are represented by a bubble labeled with that company’s logo and its profits. A larger bubble and darker shade of green indicates a more profitable company, while a smaller bubble with lighter shade of blue indicates a less profitable company. Our viz has categorized these companies by industry.
Top 10 Most Profitable Companies in the U.S.
1. Berkshire Hathaway (Insurance): $81.4B
2. Apple (Computers & software): $55.3B
3. Microsoft (Computers & software): $39.2B
4. JPMorgan Chase (Internet services & retailing): $36.4B
5. Alphabet (Internet services & retailing): $34.3B
6. Bank of America (Internet services & retailing): $27.4B
7. Intel (Electronics, electrical equipment & electronic components): $21.05B
8. Wells Fargo (Financials): $19.5B
9. Citigroup (Financials): $19.4B
10. Verizon Communications (Telecommunications): $19.3B
The most profitable U.S. company by far is the Berkshire Hathaway, the insurance conglomerate run by billionaire Warren Buffett. At over $80 billion in 2019 profits, Berkshire Hathaway is more profitable than any company worldwide except for oil giant Saudi Aramco.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Even mighty Berkshire stumbled in the first quarter of 2020 amid the global economic shutdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic: the company posted a nearly $50 billion loss, the largest ever in its history. This loss, along with Buffett’s seeming lack of response to adjusting the company’s portfolio, has led some to question whether the “Oracle of Omaha” has lost his touch, while others insist that Buffett will again be proven correct with a steady “buy-and-hold” strategy.
Following Berkshire Hathaway on the most profitable list is Apple, a company which had only gained in earnings 2.5% annually as of March 2020. Analysts seem optimistic that the technology company will be able to bounce back with increasing consumer spending and confidence. And there is reason to believe: Microsoft posted strong year-over-year earnings growth in the third quarter of 2020, citing minimal impact of the coronavirus.
A noticeable absence on the list is Amazon, the world’s largest retailer. While a large company by market capitalization, Amazon still has a relatively low profit. This is because the company re-invests much of its revenue into the company, with the expectation of higher profits in the future. The strategy has paid off, while some wonder how long it can continue.
What companies are you surprised to see among the most profitable? Are there any you’re surprised not to see? Will corporate profits rebound in the coming quarters? Let us know in the comments and share with your friends.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Your CreditKarma score isn’t your real credit score. CK shows you what’s basically the “pasteurized

Your CreditKarma score isn’t your real credit score. CK shows you what’s basically the “pasteurized process cheese food” of credit scores — the difference matters!

I often see posts here that say something like “ I paid off a loan and my credit score dropped X points !
What gives ?
” And in the original post or the comments , more often than not the score in question is from CreditKarma .
But here ’ s the thing : CreditKarma scores are hardly ever used by actual lenders to make decisions ; pretty much only FICO ( Fair , Isaac & Co. ) scores are .
CreditKarma scores have many of the same “ ingredients ” as FICO scores , but the mixture usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model used for CK scores is called VantageScore 3.0 ; you can think of it as a slightly “ off-brand ” credit score that lenders don ’ t typically care for .
I wanted to talk about some of the more glaring differences between Vantage and FICO scores – if you ’ re applying for credit ( and not just monitoring ) , having “ the real thing ” is helpful .
You might eat Kraft American Singles on a sandwich at home , but you wouldn ’ t bring them for an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , right ?
• FICO scores consider ALL accounts ( whether open or closed ) in determining average account age ; VantageScore includes only OPEN accounts .
This is probably THE single biggest difference between the two models and the source of much of the frustration with CK that I see here .
If you pay off an installment loan ( like a mortgage , car loan , or student loan ) , the account gets closed .
While FICO will still count it toward your average account age until it falls off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closed account immediately gets removed from the calculation , which might make your average account age fall and drop you a bunch of points !
• FICO models only count hard inquiries – i.e .
credit apps – from the past 12 months even though they appear on your reports for 24 months .
By contrast , CK ’ s VantageScore will penalize inquiries for the full 24 months , and ( at least in my experience ) there ’ s little to no reduction of that penalty as the inquiries age ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scores almost as much as a 23-minute-old one .
• With credit line utilization ( the percentage of the credit limit owed as a balance ) both overall credit balances and utilization at the individual account level matter .
But FICO seems to count overall utilization more heavily , while VantageScore seems to be REALLY sensitive to individual account-level balances , to the point where just one account crossing a “ threshold ” might cause a large swing .
In fact , I saw a post here today where someone wrote they lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when their overall utilization went from 1 % to 4 % , likely because an individual card crossed a threshold ( even though this wasn ’ t directly stated ) .
In FICO-world , since overall utilization matters more , that penalty would probably be much smaller .
• With negative entries – late payments , collections , etc .
– it seems ( from my research ) that FICO scores penalize old negative items a bit more than CK scores do .
I don ’ t have any negatives on my own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but I ’ ve seen a common thread online where people are unpleasantly surprised to find their FICO scores much lower than CreditKarma , often because of older negative items .
Although FICO scores do have some leniency for old negatives , make no mistake : they will still “ hurt ” for the full 7 years they show on your report !
Edit : This may not be true in all cases as a blanket rule .
In some cases , CK may score old negatives more harshly , probably depending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comparing against .
Now , a couple caveats .
There are several dozen different versions of FICO scores , some old and some new , some generic and some industry-specific .
There are FICO scores specifically for car loans and for credit cards , for example .
And mortgage underwriting uses a pretty old FICO model ( 2004-ish ) .
FICO scores aren ’ t a monolithic thing , in other words .
Also , CreditKarma can still be useful even though the scores it gives you aren ’ t “ real.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and pretty decent for monitoring changes to your reports or giving you a rough idea where you stand in terms of credit risk .
Above all , just don ’ t take CK as gospel ; remember that they ’ re a marketing company first ( by selling your data to lenders ) and a monitoring service second .
tl ; dr – CreditKarma scores aren ’ t the real credit scores used by lenders , much like Velveeta isn ’ t real cheese .
Don ’ t pay too much attention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a rough guide .
Disclaimer : This is a guest post and it doesn ’ t necessarily represent the views of IWB .

by searediPodReduction
I often see posts here that say something like “I paid off a loan and my credit score dropped X points! What gives?” And in the original post or the comments, more often than not the score in question is from CreditKarma. But here’s the thing: CreditKarma scores are hardly ever used by actual lenders to make decisions; pretty much only FICO (Fair, Isaac & Co.) scores are. CreditKarma scores have many of the same “ingredients” as FICO scores, but the mixture usually isn’t quite right.
The model used for CK scores is called VantageScore 3.0; you can think of it as a slightly “off-brand” credit score that lenders don’t typically care for. I wanted to talk about some of the more glaring differences between Vantage and FICO scores – if you’re applying for credit (and not just monitoring), having “the real thing” is helpful. You might eat Kraft American Singles on a sandwich at home, but you wouldn’t bring them for an hors d’oeuvre at a wedding, right?
FICO scores consider ALL accounts (whether open or closed) in determining average account age; VantageScore includes only OPEN accounts. This is probably THE single biggest difference between the two models and the source of much of the frustration with CK that I see here. If you pay off an installment loan (like a mortgage, car loan, or student loan), the account gets closed. While FICO will still count it toward your average account age until it falls off, VantageScore won’t: the closed account immediately gets removed from the calculation, which might make your average account age fall and drop you a bunch of points!
FICO models only count hard inquiries – i.e. credit apps – from the past 12 months even though they appear on your reports for 24 months. By contrast, CK’s VantageScore will penalize inquiries for the full 24 months, and (at least in my experience) there’s little to no reduction of that penalty as the inquiries age; a 23-month-old inquiry seems to hurt CK scores almost as much as a 23-minute-old one.
With credit line utilization (the percentage of the credit limit owed as a balance) both overall credit balances and utilization at the individual account level matter. But FICO seems to count overall utilization more heavily, while VantageScore seems to be REALLY sensitive to individual account-level balances, to the point where just one account crossing a “threshold” might cause a large swing. In fact, I saw a post here today where someone wrote they lost 25 points (!) on CK when their overall utilization went from 1% to 4%, likely because an individual card crossed a threshold (even though this wasn’t directly stated). In FICO-world, since overall utilization matters more, that penalty would probably be much smaller.
With negative entries – late payments, collections, etc. – it seems (from my research) that FICO scores penalize old negative items a bit more than CK scores do. I don’t have any negatives on my own report to use as a data point, but I’ve seen a common thread online where people are unpleasantly surprised to find their FICO scores much lower than CreditKarma, often because of older negative items. Although FICO scores do have some leniency for old negatives, make no mistake: they will still “hurt” for the full 7 years they show on your report! Edit: This may not be true in all cases as a blanket rule. In some cases, CK may score old negatives more harshly, probably depending on which FICO model you’re comparing against.
Now, a couple caveats. There are several dozen different versions of FICO scores, some old and some new, some generic and some industry-specific. There are FICO scores specifically for car loans and for credit cards, for example. And mortgage underwriting uses a pretty old FICO model (2004-ish). FICO scores aren’t a monolithic thing, in other words.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Also, CreditKarma can still be useful even though the scores it gives you aren’t “real.” CK is free (biggest plus!) and pretty decent for monitoring changes to your reports or giving you a rough idea where you stand in terms of credit risk. Above all, just don’t take CK as gospel; remember that they’re a marketing company first (by selling your data to lenders) and a monitoring service second.
tl;dr – CreditKarma scores aren’t the real credit scores used by lenders, much like Velveeta isn’t real cheese. Don’t pay too much attention to your CK “VelveetaScore” except as a rough guide.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--SQQQ, SRS, DRV — Stock Armageddon Coming (Yeah Yeah, we’ve heard it all before)

I bring to you my thesis that the stock market will plummet immensely over the next 2 months on these catalysts : 1 ) The Fed can not continue to print money at this rate — We just posted an all time high deficit of 800 Billion for the month of june , and have added 2.47 Trillion to the debt in the first 9 months of this quarterly year ( Beginning Oct. 19 ) .
The market is completely propped up due to this .
2 ) Unemployment benefits will not be extended .
This is the reality , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to $ 400 or eliminated completely , over 40 Million households receiving unemployment benefits will lose spending power of upwards of 96 Billion dollars PER MONTH ( 2400 extra unemployment assistance x 40,000,000 ) .
That ’ s money that won ’ t go to small businesses or into those RH accounts we love to shit on .
( I happen to be one of those RHer ’ s but I digress ) 3 ) The housing market .
No , not just the residential one , but commercial as well .
Over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not pay their rent in full in June according to a survey done in conjunction with Eater ( Source : ny.eater.com/2020/7/2/21310016/nyc-restaurants-rent-payments-june ) Multiple retail outlets ( JCP , Brooks Brothers , etc ) have filed for bankruptcy and will sell their properties for pennies on the dollar .
Forget about malls as they ’ re indoor and places like California just essentially went back to phase 1 will not permit them to be open .
What about residential rent ?
Well , if schools like Boston College ( just an example ) don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rent rates will fall in the surrounding area of Chesnut hill come August as landlords will have to fill em at a loss or eat their mortgage losses and input less into the economy .
Nearly a THIRD of renters didn ’ t pay their rent for April , 2 weeks after the initial shutdown ( Source : www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829850505/millions-didnt-pay-rent-last-week-amid-pandemic-woes ) .
What happens when you cut off $ 2400 off unemployment assistance at the end of July and the eviction moratorium ends on August 25th ?
What happens when folks who were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who ’ ve had their hours cut can ’ t pay their rent in full ?
We ’ re about to witness a scale of misery this country hasn ’ t seen in a long time folks .
Now why am I writing this aside from the doom & gloom ?
SQQQ , SRS , DRV and other similar ETF ’ s should be on your radar immediately .
Options for DRV and SRS skyrocketed today for Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec , and this can help blunt the impact of the inevitable market correction for some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pennies .
This is not a rational market , and it hasn ’ t been for a while .
What goes up must come down , and I ’ m hoping I fall onto a trampoline and skyrocket to the moon with those calls come 2 months from now .
I am not a financial advisor , and I ’ m not advising you to throw your life savings at this .
To be honest , I was an XSPA bag holder ( cleared half my position today for a 33 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Big Short/Margin Call one too many times .
That being said , if today was any indication , i ’ m not wrong on this .
Some of you have helped me here , so I ’ m just playing my part in spreading good karma to try helping anyone who hears it stay in the green .
Disclaimer : This information is only for educational purposes .
Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article .
Do you own due diligence .

by bsharp12345
I bring to you my thesis that the stock market will plummet immensely over the next 2 months on these catalysts:
1) The Fed cannot continue to print money at this rate — We just posted an all time high deficit of 800 Billion for the month of june, and have added 2.47 Trillion to the debt in the first 9 months of this quarterly year (Beginning Oct. 19). The market is completely propped up due to this.
Source: wtop.com/national/2020/07/us-budget-deficit-hits-all-time-high-of-864-billion-in-june/
2) Unemployment benefits will not be extended. This is the reality, regardless if it’s dropped down to $400 or eliminated completely, over 40 Million households receiving unemployment benefits will lose spending power of upwards of 96 Billion dollars PER MONTH (2400 extra unemployment assistance x 40,000,000). That’s money that won’t go to small businesses or into those RH accounts we love to shit on. (I happen to be one of those RHer’s but I digress)
3) The housing market. No, not just the residential one, but commercial as well. Over 80% of restaurants in NYC did not pay their rent in full in June according to a survey done in conjunction with Eater(Source: ny.eater.com/2020/7/2/21310016/nyc-restaurants-rent-payments-june ) Multiple retail outlets (JCP, Brooks Brothers, etc) have filed for bankruptcy and will sell their properties for pennies on the dollar. Forget about malls as they’re indoor and places like California just essentially went back to phase 1 will not permit them to be open.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
What about residential rent? Well, if schools like Boston College (just an example) don’t have kids on campus, the rent rates will fall in the surrounding area of Chesnut hill come August as landlords will have to fill em at a loss or eat their mortgage losses and input less into the economy. Nearly a THIRD of renters didn’t pay their rent for April, 2 weeks after the initial shutdown (Source: www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829850505/millions-didnt-pay-rent-last-week-amid-pandemic-woes) . What happens when you cut off $2400 off unemployment assistance at the end of July and the eviction moratorium ends on August 25th? What happens when folks who were already barely getting by on full employment who’ve had their hours cut can’t pay their rent in full? We’re about to witness a scale of misery this country hasn’t seen in a long time folks.

Now why am I writing this aside from the doom & gloom? SQQQ, SRS, DRV and other similar ETF’s should be on your radar immediately. Options for DRV and SRS skyrocketed today for Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec, and this can help blunt the impact of the inevitable market correction for some of you invested in blue chips down to pennies. This is not a rational market, and it hasn’t been for a while. What goes up must come down, and I’m hoping I fall onto a trampoline and skyrocket to the moon with those calls come 2 months from now.

I am not a financial advisor, and I’m not advising you to throw your life savings at this. To be honest, I was an XSPA bag holder (cleared half my position today for a 33% loss) and I may have watched The Big Short/Margin Call one too many times. That being said, if today was any indication, i’m not wrong on this. Some of you have helped me here, so I’m just playing my part in spreading good karma to try helping anyone who hears it stay in the green.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--The Labor Market Has Stagnated For Past Month

Headline initial jobless claims fell solidly which was better than expected , but total claims , when you include PUAs , barely improved .
The labor market has stagnated for the past 4 weeks .
Specifically , in the week of July 4th , initial claims fell from 1.413 million to 1.314 million which beat estimates for 1.375 million .
That ’ s a 7 % decline which is solid especially since the prior week ’ s reading was revised lower from 1.427 million .
This decline was the largest since June 6th on a percentage basis .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell from 18.76 million to 18.062 million which is a 3.7 % decline .
That ’ s the biggest decline in 2 weeks .
Next week ’ s initial claims reading and the continued claims data 2 weeks from now will be the BLS survey week .
PUA initial claims rose 42,000 to 1.04 million .
As you can see from the chart below , there were 2.4 million PUA plus initial claims .
That was a 3 % decline .
As we mentioned , the labor market has stagnated in the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher than it was a month ago .
Having no improvement is quite bad when the unemployment rate is in the low double digits which is above the peak in the last cycle .
As the chart below shows , the all in implied insured unemployment rate is 12.4 % which is above June ’ s rate of 11.1 % , but only slightly above the misclassified rate of 12.1 % .
In July ’ s report , the misclassified rate and the headline rate should fully converge .
If that happens and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobless claims data suggests , the U3 rate could actually increase slightly .
In a previous article , we mentioned that if the July labor report is likely to be weak , the stock market will probably already price that in ahead of time .
We aren ’ t discussing data that isn ’ t widely known .
If next week ’ s initial claims reading is bad , the unemployment report should follow suit .
Whether the recent economic weakness has been priced into markets depends on how you think it should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new narrative on Wall Street that aims to explain the recent action in markets .
It ’ s important to not get caught up in narratives because when the market changes its tune , the narrative will lag .
Don ’ t look for those promoting the previous narrative to save you from losses .
They will already be onto a new explanation .
The current explanation as to why the S & P 500 is near its record high is market composition .
The software stocks have gotten so large as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tech sector does well , the entire market does well .
Because the software & online retailers are seen as benefiting from the shutdowns and changes in behavior due to COVID-19 , the virus spreading is being viewed as good news by the index .
As you can see from the bottom chart above , growth has outperformed value for over a decade and the recent outperformance has gone vertical .
What that largely means is software stocks have trounced the banks .
The top chart shows the ratio of technology to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is a play on low interest rates as well .
One potential flaw in the narrative supporting many story stocks is that electric vehicle stocks are rallying .
In theory , if less people have to drive to work , less cars would be needed .
To be fair , electric car sales have gained market share during the slowdown .
Therefore , you can argue any industry that ’ s doing well is being treated as if these accelerations will continue indefinitely whenever negative COVID-19 data is released .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pricing in COVID-19 being bad .
That can be seen in small cap value stocks which are down 13.6 % since June 8th .
It ’ s clear June 8th was the peak in excitement about a potential cyclical recovery .
The S & P 500 is a quality growth index which means the way it prices in this negative news is by rallying .
This is an explanation rather than support for how the market has acted .
The narrative can change on a dime , or positive COVID-19 news can send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with our current focus being on a potential corporate tax increase , mostly occur when the Congress and presidency are controlled by one party .
The Democrats ’ weakest link in winning all 3 is thought to be the Senate .
If the Dems win the Senate , a tax hike could be coming .
As you can see from the PredictIt data below , there is a 61 % chance the Senate goes to the Dems .
If the Dems win the Presidency , they win the Senate if it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the deciding voter ) .
The presidential election , which is the top of the ticket , has a large impact on the Senate and House races , but only 1/3rd of Senators are up for re-election .
It doesn ’ t seem like the stock market has priced a tax hike in since it is near its record high .
Plus , the Democrats could cause more havoc for the big internet companies through antitrust rulings .
Since the internet companies have a huge impact on the market , this is critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 27th ( 12PM ET ) hearing in which the CEOs of Apple , Amazon , Facebook , and Google ( Alphabet ) testify in front of Congress over its investigation into online platforms and market power .
This could be a preview of what is to come for these major online players .
Initial jobless claims fell 7 % in the first week of July , but the all in reading was still problematic .
There are 2.4 million claims when you include PUAs .
All in claims lead to an unemployment rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been rallying on the bad COVID-19 news because it is seen as good for software and online retailers which dominate the S & P 500 .
The betting market is starting to think the Dems will win the Senate which would mean corporate taxes are going to be raised which is bad for stocks .

by UPFINA
Headline initial jobless claims fell solidly which was better than expected, but total claims, when you include PUAs, barely improved. The labor market has stagnated for the past 4 weeks. Specifically, in the week of July 4th, initial claims fell from 1.413 million to 1.314 million which beat estimates for 1.375 million. That’s a 7% decline which is solid especially since the prior week’s reading was revised lower from 1.427 million. This decline was the largest since June 6th on a percentage basis.
In the week of June 27th, continued claims fell from 18.76 million to 18.062 million which is a 3.7% decline. That’s the biggest decline in 2 weeks. Next week’s initial claims reading and the continued claims data 2 weeks from now will be the BLS survey week. PUA initial claims rose 42,000 to 1.04 million. As you can see from the chart below, there were 2.4 million PUA plus initial claims. That was a 3% decline. As we mentioned, the labor market has stagnated in the past 4 weeks. This total is slightly higher than it was a month ago. Having no improvement is quite bad when the unemployment rate is in the low double digits which is above the peak in the last cycle.
Initial claims for #unemployment stubbornly elevated 1.31mn in w-e Jul4 (-99k) > 4wk avg: 1.44mn > PUA claims (NSA): 1.04mn (+42k) Total UI claims+PUA still 2.3mn! Backlogs & miscounts are valid reasons to be careful w/ weekly data but >2mn claims in early July is worrisome pic.twitter.com/GCu2ZEDgUt — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) July 9, 2020
As the chart below shows, the all in implied insured unemployment rate is 12.4% which is above June’s rate of 11.1%, but only slightly above the misclassified rate of 12.1%. In July’s report, the misclassified rate and the headline rate should fully converge. If that happens and the labor market hardly improves like the jobless claims data suggests, the U3 rate could actually increase slightly. In a previous article, we mentioned that if the July labor report is likely to be weak, the stock market will probably already price that in ahead of time. We aren’t discussing data that isn’t widely known. If next week’s initial claims reading is bad, the unemployment report should follow suit.
An additional 1.8 million continuing claims were filed for the week ending June 27 and the implied insured unemployment rate stands at 12.4%, well-above the official 11.1% noted in the June Employment Report and in line with an estimate of the mis-classified rate of 12.1%. pic.twitter.com/3Z0C7Wzy0Z — Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) July 9, 2020
The New Narrative
Whether the recent economic weakness has been priced into markets depends on how you think it should be priced in. There is always a new narrative on Wall Street that aims to explain the recent action in markets. It’s important to not get caught up in narratives because when the market changes its tune, the narrative will lag. Don’t look for those promoting the previous narrative to save you from losses. They will already be onto a new explanation.
The current explanation as to why the S&P 500 is near its record high is market composition. The software stocks have gotten so large as a percentage of the index, when the tech sector does well, the entire market does well. Because the software & online retailers are seen as benefiting from the shutdowns and changes in behavior due to COVID-19, the virus spreading is being viewed as good news by the index.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
As you can see from the bottom chart above, growth has outperformed value for over a decade and the recent outperformance has gone vertical. What that largely means is software stocks have trounced the banks. The top chart shows the ratio of technology to financial stocks has hit a record high. This is a play on low interest rates as well. One potential flaw in the narrative supporting many story stocks is that electric vehicle stocks are rallying. In theory, if less people have to drive to work, less cars would be needed. To be fair, electric car sales have gained market share during the slowdown. Therefore, you can argue any industry that’s doing well is being treated as if these accelerations will continue indefinitely whenever negative COVID-19 data is released.
The overarching theme here is the market is pricing in COVID-19 being bad. That can be seen in small cap value stocks which are down 13.6% since June 8th. It’s clear June 8th was the peak in excitement about a potential cyclical recovery. The S&P 500 is a quality growth index which means the way it prices in this negative news is by rallying. This is an explanation rather than support for how the market has acted. The narrative can change on a dime, or positive COVID-19 news can send these story stocks lower.
Democrats Could Win The Senate
Large changes, with our current focus being on a potential corporate tax increase, mostly occur when the Congress and presidency are controlled by one party. The Democrats’ weakest link in winning all 3 is thought to be the Senate. If the Dems win the Senate, a tax hike could be coming. As you can see from the PredictIt data below, there is a 61% chance the Senate goes to the Dems. If the Dems win the Presidency, they win the Senate if it’s a tie (the VP is the deciding voter). The presidential election, which is the top of the ticket, has a large impact on the Senate and House races, but only 1/3rd of Senators are up for re-election. It doesn’t seem like the stock market has priced a tax hike in since it is near its record high.
Outside of HC, investors don’t seem to be pricing this in. What happens to the market when EPS is cut by $20 from repeal of TCJA, $15 min wage, double the GILTI tax rate, and imposing a corporate minimum tax rate? pic.twitter.com/O26O1lUpMb — HoosierInvestor (@HoosierInvestor) July 10, 2020
Plus, the Democrats could cause more havoc for the big internet companies through antitrust rulings. Since the internet companies have a huge impact on the market, this is critical. We will be watching the July 27th (12PM ET) hearing in which the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google (Alphabet) testify in front of Congress over its investigation into online platforms and market power. This could be a preview of what is to come for these major online players.
Conclusion
Initial jobless claims fell 7% in the first week of July, but the all in reading was still problematic. There are 2.4 million claims when you include PUAs. All in claims lead to an unemployment rate of 12.4%. The stock market has been rallying on the bad COVID-19 news because it is seen as good for software and online retailers which dominate the S&P 500. The betting market is starting to think the Dems will win the Senate which would mean corporate taxes are going to be raised which is bad for stocks.


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Here’s How COVID Is Affecting the Food Supply

I am writing this article with the intent to share my knowledge with my readers , not to trigger alarms or increase anxiety .
There is too much fuzzy information out there already .
What I do know is , we can not trust the prevalence of external sources to feed ourselves .
While it may not seem too bad at the moment , there are reasons to be concerned .
We must think seriously about these matters and continue efficiently and quietly prepping .
There is currently too much noise and fluff out there to extract something useful from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wait a bit longer .
While you wait , I suggest checking the economic news as often as you sanitize your hands .
I have posted official information here that is grounded in facts .
My research has resulted in trustworthy information gathered from reliable sources .
Whether you trust them or not , that ’ s up to you .
An article posted on the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition website mentions that food prices seem to have not been deeply affected on a global scale at this time .
This article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a new tool developed to help fill in that data .
GAIN took a look at the data and determined the price of many food items have indeed gone up in all countries due to the pandemic .
RELATED : Life After COVID : A Look at the New Economy What about farmworkers from the south and the food supply ?
Also reported by the NPR was the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City suspended non-emergency visa appointments out of health concerns .
However , farm employers were notified that most of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visas .
Business as usual , so it would seem .
Yet there is still this fear of lack of food supply .
Things will change .
They always do .
We preppers face things like this differently .
However , I have discovered non-preppers are selling their properties and heading to the hills .
This is an excellent attitude to have for those who can .
It will also diminish pressure upon the existing production infrastructure and even provide some positive flow of products to the local areas , which could need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of imports .
In 2012 we had everything we wanted to buy in my piece of heaven .
Now , most of the food is imported or incredibly expensive .
As far as I know , all of the pasta , rice , cornmeal , and other local products that once were enough are now luxury commodities .
As I ’ ve mentioned , vast fortunes keep being made with the importers .
It ’ s highly suspicious to learn that most of this trade comes from Turkey .
( Yes , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Cuban cigar while devouring a large steak prepared by the infamous Salt Bae in a luxury restaurant . )
One of my friends has already started his business producing , bottling , and selling mayonnaise .
Another of my friends , who I mentioned before , has thrived because his family owns a bee farm .
I told him when gasoline started to become scarce to get rid of his sedan and replace it with a good diesel SUV , but he didn ’ t listen .
Now he ’ s struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distribute his product .
The pandemic gave the ruling communist party a perfect excuse to impose travel restrictions from one municipal entity ( like your counties in the U.S. or parishes in the U.K. ) to another .
If someone in 2012 had told me that our almost entire food production and importing network was going to crash , I would have listened .
I knew that many dirty business were going on with the oil revenues .
Our local food production wasn ’ t enough .
It hasn ’ t been for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot between 2000 and 2010 .
People migrated from farming lands to the oil-producing states , making it necessary to import products like meat , milk , and rice from Argentina , Uruguay , and other Southern countries .
These products sold at a loss , in the ( previously State-seized ) supermarket chain targeted to function as a tool in the domination and subjugation scheme .
The scheme was to control the food supply and starve those who dare to refuse the imposition of the socialist party line .
What should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Today we now have different variables to be analyzed , no matter where we are located .
This strange pandemic came to produce sort of a ground-leveling effect .
Business-as-usual is not going to be the same for a while , if ever .
We have witnessed these last few years an awesome setup of industries being born : the agricultural robots , vertical automated farming ( as inefficiently from an energy perspective as it is at the moment ) , and similar initiatives .
That is great , and I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Venezuela , and finding someone to work in the fields has never been easy because of the lack of opportunities for a better life .
These developments are going to have a certain weight in the future .
However , we all know some jobs can ’ t be fully automated , like butchering a cow , a chicken , or a hog .
Automation is not cheap neither .
And this is the bottleneck we have to be aware of .
We strongly recommend that you purchase certain items every time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal stockpile while you can .
According to an article on the USDA blog , data currently available shows the U.S. will remain “ well supplied , and food will continue to be affordable.
” Nonetheless , shelves in many parts of the US continue to be bare .
Stores are still rationing certain items .
The report offers other reassurances , including the fact that all industries in the food supply chain have been deemed essential and excused from any shelter-in-place orders .
Another possible explanation for the empty shelves is many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of business .
People are going to buy much more food at retail stores .
But this seems to be temporary .
Still , I find it concerning to read posts in our Facebook group reporting that meat and fish processing plants have been closed due to a high infection percentage of employees .
If those plants are not subject to shelter-in-place orders , are those infected people at work ?
I have not read anything about the pandemic sweeping out an entire crew .
Not yet .
Learn to adapt to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to adapt to the new rules .
Fear-based or not , food prices are going to be higher , thanks to uncertainty being much higher .
No matter your degree of confidence in your food supply , it would be best to be as independent as you can be .
All of my plans have not resulted exactly as once thought , but that ’ s OK .
I can adapt myself to the circumstances , and keep moving .
My dear readers , for the first time in many years , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ professional degree that is going to bring food to your table .
It ’ s not even if you are smarter or stronger .
Maybe those with money will have it easy for some time .
But , I believe having a variety of skills is your best survival tool .
Skills used to do something with added value : transform raw materials , or grow some kind of commodity .
Welcome the change and make changes .
After being locked down in their own houses , people who never saw the need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , city bunkers , BOVs , alternate energy sources , and learning about what they consider useful…maybe for the next disaster .
People are preparing for the next event because it is coming .
And this preparedness takes the pressure off the emergency teams and organizations , allowing the redirection of resources and time for those who really find themselves in trouble .
The more food we produce for ourselves and others , in addition to the development of our own careers , will add value that is hard to quantify .
Enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s time for self-sustainable farming , where everybody must collaborate .
Be safe !
And don ’ t forget to stay tuned !
Jose is an upper middle class professional .
He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor ’ s degree from one of the best national Universities .
He has a small 4 members family , plus two cats and a dog .
An old but in good shape SUV , a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood , in a small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two middle size malls .
Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela .
Thanks to your help Jose has gotten his family out of Venezuela .
They are currently setting up a new life in another country .
Follow Jose on YouTube and gain access to his exclusive content on Patreon .
Donations : paypal.me/JoseM151

by J G Martinez D
I am writing this article with the intent to share my knowledge with my readers, not to trigger alarms or increase anxiety. There is too much fuzzy information out there already. What I do know is, we can not trust the prevalence of external sources to feed ourselves. While it may not seem too bad at the moment, there are reasons to be concerned. We must think seriously about these matters and continue efficiently and quietly prepping.
There is currently too much noise and fluff out there to extract something useful from most reports. We will have to wait a bit longer. While you wait, I suggest checking the economic news as often as you sanitize your hands. I have posted official information here that is grounded in facts. My research has resulted in trustworthy information gathered from reliable sources. Whether you trust them or not, that’s up to you.
Have food prices been affected?
An article posted on the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition website mentions that food prices seem to have not been deeply affected on a global scale at this time.
While economic models suggest Covid-19 will not have a major impact on global food prices, it is anticipated to put upward pressure on food prices in some areas of the world. Similar food price shocks have had large consequences in the past.
This article also mentions critical data that was missed and a new tool developed to help fill in that data. GAIN took a look at the data and determined the price of many food items have indeed gone up in all countries due to the pandemic.
What about farmworkers from the south and the food supply?
NPR (National Public Radio) explains:
About 250,000 workers came to the U.S. on H-2A visas last year, the majority of them from Mexico. They’ve become an increasingly important piece of America’s food industry.
Also reported by the NPR was the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City suspended non-emergency visa appointments out of health concerns. However, farm employers were notified that most of the farmworkers would still be able to get visas. Business as usual, so it would seem. Yet there is still this fear of lack of food supply.
Things will change. They always do.
We preppers face things like this differently. However, I have discovered non-preppers are selling their properties and heading to the hills. This is an excellent attitude to have for those who can. It will also diminish pressure upon the existing production infrastructure and even provide some positive flow of products to the local areas, which could need it.
Nearly everyone is seeing shortages of imports.
In 2012 we had everything we wanted to buy in my piece of heaven. Now, most of the food is imported or incredibly expensive. As far as I know, all of the pasta, rice, cornmeal, and other local products that once were enough are now luxury commodities. As I’ve mentioned, vast fortunes keep being made with the importers. It’s highly suspicious to learn that most of this trade comes from Turkey. (Yes, the same country where Nicolas was seen enjoying a Cuban cigar while devouring a large steak prepared by the infamous Salt Bae in a luxury restaurant.)
Tough times produce tough people.
One of my friends has already started his business producing, bottling, and selling mayonnaise. Another of my friends, who I mentioned before, has thrived because his family owns a bee farm. I told him when gasoline started to become scarce to get rid of his sedan and replace it with a good diesel SUV, but he didn’t listen. Now he’s struggling, but still getting ahead, to distribute his product. The pandemic gave the ruling communist party a perfect excuse to impose travel restrictions from one municipal entity (like your counties in the U.S. or parishes in the U.K.) to another.
If someone in 2012 had told me that our almost entire food production and importing network was going to crash, I would have listened. I knew that many dirty business were going on with the oil revenues. Our local food production wasn’t enough. It hasn’t been for some time, as the population grew a lot between 2000 and 2010. People migrated from farming lands to the oil-producing states, making it necessary to import products like meat, milk, and rice from Argentina, Uruguay, and other Southern countries. These products sold at a loss, in the (previously State-seized) supermarket chain targeted to function as a tool in the domination and subjugation scheme. The scheme was to control the food supply and starve those who dare to refuse the imposition of the socialist party line.
What should be the next course of action?
Today we now have different variables to be analyzed, no matter where we are located. This strange pandemic came to produce sort of a ground-leveling effect. Business-as-usual is not going to be the same for a while, if ever.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
We have witnessed these last few years an awesome setup of industries being born: the agricultural robots, vertical automated farming (as inefficiently from an energy perspective as it is at the moment), and similar initiatives. That is great, and I’m excited about it: migration hurt much of Venezuela, and finding someone to work in the fields has never been easy because of the lack of opportunities for a better life. These developments are going to have a certain weight in the future. However, we all know some jobs can’t be fully automated, like butchering a cow, a chicken, or a hog. Automation is not cheap neither. And this is the bottleneck we have to be aware of.
We strongly recommend that you purchase certain items every time you visit the store to rebuild your personal stockpile while you can.
Does fear generate empty shelves syndrome?
According to an article on the USDA blog, data currently available shows the U.S. will remain “well supplied, and food will continue to be affordable.” Nonetheless, shelves in many parts of the US continue to be bare. Stores are still rationing certain items. The report offers other reassurances, including the fact that all industries in the food supply chain have been deemed essential and excused from any shelter-in-place orders.
Another possible explanation for the empty shelves is many restaurants have closed or are going out of business. People are going to buy much more food at retail stores. But this seems to be temporary.
Still, I find it concerning to read posts in our Facebook group reporting that meat and fish processing plants have been closed due to a high infection percentage of employees. If those plants are not subject to shelter-in-place orders, are those infected people at work? I have not read anything about the pandemic sweeping out an entire crew. Not yet.
Learn to adapt to the reality surrounding you quickly.
You have to adapt to the new rules.
Fear-based or not, food prices are going to be higher, thanks to uncertainty being much higher. No matter your degree of confidence in your food supply, it would be best to be as independent as you can be. All of my plans have not resulted exactly as once thought, but that’s OK. I can adapt myself to the circumstances, and keep moving.
My dear readers, for the first time in many years, I believe, it’s not a professional degree that is going to bring food to your table. It’s not even if you are smarter or stronger. Maybe those with money will have it easy for some time. But, I believe having a variety of skills is your best survival tool. Skills used to do something with added value: transform raw materials, or grow some kind of commodity.
Welcome the change and make changes.
After being locked down in their own houses, people who never saw the need for prepping are now researching bugout locations, city bunkers, BOVs, alternate energy sources, and learning about what they consider useful…maybe for the next disaster. People are preparing for the next event because it is coming. And this preparedness takes the pressure off the emergency teams and organizations, allowing the redirection of resources and time for those who really find themselves in trouble.
The more food we produce for ourselves and others, in addition to the development of our own careers, will add value that is hard to quantify. Enough with the industrial big agro! It’s time for self-sustainable farming, where everybody must collaborate.
Be safe! And don’t forget to stay tuned!
Jose
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has a small 4 members family, plus two cats and a dog. An old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Thanks to your help Jose has gotten his family out of Venezuela. They are currently setting up a new life in another country. Follow Jose on YouTube and gain access to his exclusive content on Patreon. Donations: paypal.me/JoseM151


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Who Will Fact Check the Fact Checkers?

Who Will Fact Check the Fact Checkers?

Hey internet friends .
This video is about the well-known fact-checking website called Snopes : detailing the history of the @ @ @ @ @ wife team , Barbara and David Mikkelson who started it all , the inner-workings of @ @ @ @ @ the content , and more !

Snopes is Bullsh*t.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Hey internet friends. This video is about the well-known fact-checking website called Snopes: detailing the history of the platform, the husband and wife team, Barbara and David Mikkelson who started it all, the inner-workings of the company, who finances the content, and more!


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Thomas Sowell…..the smartest black man alive destroys pompous news anchor that thinks he’s sitting d

Thomas Sowell…..the smartest black man alive destroys pompous news anchor that thinks he’s sitting down for afternoon tea.

It ’ s simultaneously amusing and demoralising that basic common sense , evidence based arguments Thomas Sowell was making almost @ @ @ @ @ being ignored today in favour of emotions and feelings .

It’s simultaneously amusing and demoralising that basic common sense, evidence based arguments Thomas Sowell was making almost 40 years ago are still being ignored today in favour of emotions and feelings.
Source:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y021W…
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h/t InfidelViking


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--“It’s Already Starting” Minneapolis Manufacturer Pulls Up Stakes & Vows To Rebuild Elsewhere

Makes total sense .
No matter how you slice it , some of these states are hostile territory for normal @ @ @ @

Makes total sense. No matter how you slice it, some of these states are hostile territory for normal people and businesses.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
AC


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Using Bank Deposits, JPMorgan Chase Lost $3.2 Billion Trading Stocks and Credit Derivatives in First

Using Bank Deposits, JPMorgan Chase Lost $3.2 Billion Trading Stocks and Credit Derivatives in First Quarter

Imagine if every bank customer was greeted this week with a big sign just inside their Chase Bank branch that said this : “ Dear Customers : We lost $ 3.2 billion trading stocks and credit derivatives in the first quarter .
We did that using your bank deposits .
But don ’ t worry , that pales in comparison to the $ 6 billion we lost in 2012 in the London Whale mess.
” JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States .
Each and every week , millions of Americans write out a check on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5,000 branches of Chase Bank ; or drop into a branch to open a savings account for a grandchild ; or to put money into their own retirement account ; or to seek financial advice .
Everything looks very crisp , clean , consumer friendly and professional inside that individual bank branch .
But there is a frightening picture serially occurring in the unaccountable management of this sprawling financial behemoth .
According to the latest quarterly report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ( OCC ) , JPMorgan Chase lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and $ 822 million trading credit derivatives , giving it a net loss among all of its trading in cash instruments and derivatives of $ 940 million .
This is not what happened in the whole sprawling trading octopus of JPMorgan Chase , it ’ s just what happened in the taxpayer-backstopped , federally-insured bank .
If you are new to Wall Street On Parade , you are probably thinking that it is an outrage that a bank could use federally-insured deposits to gamble for the house .
And it is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reading our reporting on the Wall Street mega banks for the past decade , you would realize that it is simply one more brick in a giant wall of outrage .
There are so many bricks to choose from in the JPMorgan Chase wall of outrage that it ’ s hard to know how to prioritize them .
But we ’ ll give it a shot .
For starters , Jamie Dimon was the Chairman and CEO of this bank during the financial crisis when there was an insider whistleblower holding a law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the U.S. Department of Justice that she had observed “ a massive criminal securities fraud ” inside the bank involving the bogus mortgages the bank had sold in the billions of dollars to investors .
But instead of using that first-hand evidence to prosecute the bank , Obama ’ s Justice Department under Eric Holder used that information to extract a large fine from the bank with no charges brought .
Dimon is caught on camera on September 26 , 2013 strolling into the offices of Eric Holder to personally negotiate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two months later , the Justice Department announced the toothless settlement on behalf of itself and other regulators .
Holder said this at the time : “ The size and scope of this resolution should send a clear signal that the Justice Department ’ s financial fraud investigations are far from over .
No firm , no matter how profitable , is above the law , and the passage of time is no shield from accountability .
”

via wallstreetonparade:
Imagine if every bank customer was greeted this week with a big sign just inside their Chase Bank branch that said this:
“Dear Customers: We lost $3.2 billion trading stocks and credit derivatives in the first quarter. We did that using your bank deposits. But don’t worry, that pales in comparison to the $6 billion we lost in 2012 in the London Whale mess.”
JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States. Each and every week, millions of Americans write out a check on their account at one of the more than 5,000 branches of Chase Bank; or drop into a branch to open a savings account for a grandchild; or to put money into their own retirement account; or to seek financial advice.
Everything looks very crisp, clean, consumer friendly and professional inside that individual bank branch. But there is a frightening picture serially occurring in the unaccountable management of this sprawling financial behemoth.
According to the latest quarterly report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), JPMorgan Chase lost $2.4 billion trading stocks (equities) and $822 million trading credit derivatives, giving it a net loss among all of its trading in cash instruments and derivatives of $940 million. This is not what happened in the whole sprawling trading octopus of JPMorgan Chase, it’s just what happened in the taxpayer-backstopped, federally-insured bank.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
If you are new to Wall Street On Parade, you are probably thinking that it is an outrage that a bank could use federally-insured deposits to gamble for the house. And it is an outrage. But if you had been reading our reporting on the Wall Street mega banks for the past decade, you would realize that it is simply one more brick in a giant wall of outrage.
There are so many bricks to choose from in the JPMorgan Chase wall of outrage that it’s hard to know how to prioritize them. But we’ll give it a shot.
For starters, Jamie Dimon was the Chairman and CEO of this bank during the financial crisis when there was an insider whistleblower holding a law license, Alayne Fleischmann, that testified to the U.S. Department of Justice that she had observed “a massive criminal securities fraud” inside the bank involving the bogus mortgages the bank had sold in the billions of dollars to investors. But instead of using that first-hand evidence to prosecute the bank, Obama’s Justice Department under Eric Holder used that information to extract a large fine from the bank with no charges brought.
Dimon is caught on camera on September 26, 2013 strolling into the offices of Eric Holder to personally negotiate the terms of the settlement. Less than two months later, the Justice Department announced the toothless settlement on behalf of itself and other regulators. Holder said this at the time:
“The size and scope of this resolution should send a clear signal that the Justice Department’s financial fraud investigations are far from over. No firm, no matter how profitable, is above the law, and the passage of time is no shield from accountability.”
….


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--TRUMP Campaign Releases Devastating “Biden For China 2020” Ad!

Spread this far and wide , folks .
This is what the left doesn ’ t want the normies to @ @ @

Spread this far and wide, folks. This is what the left doesn’t want the normies to know about.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t FE


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Pro-Trump student gets slapped with a felony for trying to document his teachers clear political bia

Pro-Trump student gets slapped with a felony for trying to document his teachers clear political bias !
# trump2020 Watch @ @ @ @ @ this around !

Pro-Trump student gets slapped with a felony for trying to document his teachers clear political bias! #trump2020
Watch to see why! Share this around!
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
h/t QuantumLove


investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--First person charged in Grand Rapids riot

Adrian Baker , 18 , of Gobles , is facing riot and larceny charges for allegedly breaking into the Biggby @ @ @ @ @ across from Rosa Parks Circle and stealing the “ We ’ re Open ” sign @ @ @ @ @ a $ 5,000 bond .

Adrian Baker, 18, of Gobles, is facing riot and larceny charges for allegedly breaking into the Biggby Coffee shop on Monroe Center across from Rosa Parks Circle and stealing the “We’re Open” sign. The judge gave him a $5,000 bond.
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investmentwatchblog--2020-07-14--Yes, the Market is in a Bubble. And It May Have Just Burst.

The stock market is in a bubble .
Actually , that statement is not 100 % correct .
SOME stocks are in a massive bubble .
Other stocks are not even close .
The bubble we are facing today is in large tech stocks .
To prove this , I ’ m not going to get into the technology itself , nor am I going to try to get clever with discounted cash flows or some other analysis .
Instead I ’ m going to use the simplest method of analysis possible : mean reversion .
Why ?
Because price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t matter how great management is , nor how fast sales are growing , at some point a stock ’ s price will revert back to its mean .
For the sake of today ’ s argument I am using the 50-week moving average ( WMA ) as the “ mean.
” If you ’ re unfamiliar with this concept , the 50-week moving average comes from adding up the closing prices of the last 50 weeks and then dividing that number by 50 .
Historically , this line has acted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the case of large tech companies today , let ’ s take a look at Apple ( AAPL ) .
As you can see in the below chart , the 50-week moving average has served as an anchor for AAPL ’ s stock over the last 10 years .
Anytime AAPL has become too “ stretched ” above or below this line , it has reverted back to it… usually quite quickly .
Now , take a look at how far AAPL ’ s stock is stretched above the line today compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually looked deeper here and AAPL is MORE stretched above its 50-WMA today than at any point in the last 10 years with only one exception .
In 2012 , AAPL ’ s stock was 38 % above its 50-WMA .
That was a peak .
Later in 2012 , AAPL ’ s stock was 21 % above its 50-WMA .
That was a peak .
In 2015 , AAPL ’ s stock was 12 % above its 50-WMA .
That was a peak .
In 2018 , AAPL ’ s stock was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a peak .
In 2019 , AAPL ’ s stock was 26 % above its 50-WMA .
That was a peak .
Today , AAPL ’ s stock is 28 % above its 50-WMA .
This is a bubble , plain and simple .
Of course , AAPL stock can continue higher , becoming even more stretched above its 50-WMA but that mean reversion move is coming eventually .
Put simply , the risk to reward for large Tech Stocks is extremely high right now .
Yes , you could possibly make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea you ’ ll make a lot is minimal .
And at some point , this bubble will burst as all bubbles do and we will get that mean reversion move .
I believe this move may have started yesterday .
Smart investors are already taking steps to profit from the next major downturn in the markets .
In light of this , we ’ ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public .
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out “ Crash insurance ” on your portfolio ( these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008 ) .
We made 100 copies available to the public .
As I write this , there are just 9 left .
To pick up your copy of this report , FREE , swing by :

The stock market is in a bubble.
Actually, that statement is not 100% correct. SOME stocks are in a massive bubble. Other stocks are not even close.
The bubble we are facing today is in large tech stocks.
To prove this, I’m not going to get into the technology itself, nor am I going to try to get clever with discounted cash flows or some other analysis.
Instead I’m going to use the simplest method of analysis possible: mean reversion.
Why? Because price ALWAYS reverts to the mean.
It doesn’t matter how great management is, nor how fast sales are growing, at some point a stock’s price will revert back to its mean.
For the sake of today’s argument I am using the 50-week moving average (WMA) as the “mean.” If you’re unfamiliar with this concept, the 50-week moving average comes from adding up the closing prices of the last 50 weeks and then dividing that number by 50.
Historically, this line has acted as a magnet for stock prices. In the case of large tech companies today, let’s take a look at Apple (AAPL).
As you can see in the below chart, the 50-week moving average has served as an anchor for AAPL’s stock over the last 10 years. Anytime AAPL has become too “stretched” above or below this line, it has reverted back to it… usually quite quickly.
Now, take a look at how far AAPL’s stock is stretched above the line today compared to other peaks. I’ve actually looked deeper here and AAPL is MORE stretched above its 50-WMA today than at any point in the last 10 years with only one exception.
In 2012, AAPL’s stock was 38% above its 50-WMA. That was a peak. Later in 2012, AAPL’s stock was 21% above its 50-WMA. That was a peak. In 2015, AAPL’s stock was 12% above its 50-WMA. That was a peak. In 2018, AAPL’s stock was 18% above its 50-WMA. That was a peak. In 2019, AAPL’s stock was 26% above its 50-WMA. That was a peak.
Today, AAPL’s stock is 28% above its 50-WMA.
This is a bubble, plain and simple.
Of course, AAPL stock can continue higher, becoming even more stretched above its 50-WMA but that mean reversion move is coming eventually.
We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!
Put simply, the risk to reward for large Tech Stocks is extremely high right now. Yes, you could possibly make money buying AAPL’s stock but the idea you’ll make a lot is minimal.
And at some point, this bubble will burst as all bubbles do and we will get that mean reversion move.
I believe this move may have started yesterday.
Smart investors are already taking steps to profit from the next major downturn in the markets.
In light of this, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
We made 100 copies available to the public.
As I write this, there are just 9 left.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research